Editor’s Note: Kristin Diwan is Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the American University School of International Service. Her work focuses on the politics and policies of the Arab Gulf.

By Dr. Kristin Diwan– Special to CNN

On Saturday Bahrain will begin a government-sponsored National Dialogue. This has been seen by some as an opening, as evidence that the long campaign of suppression and retribution – the night-time arrest of activists, the torture and forced confessions, the purge of workers and students participating in protests and the trial of doctors and lawyers who served them in the course of their work - is at an end.

The United States ardently wants to believe this narrative. The U.S. wants stability in Bahrain, and, frankly, to have the whole problem go away.

But it would be a mistake for the United States to embrace this National Dialogue without reservations.

Ultimately, stability in Bahrain will require social reconciliation and political restructuring. The National Dialogue will not deliver this, and it may in fact work to undermine the prospects for national reconciliation and reform.

The National Dialogue may appear to be a re-instatement of the offer for negotiations that was proffered to the opposition at the height of the February-March protests, which brought hundreds of thousands of Bahrainis into the streets. It is not.

No one from the ruling al-Khalifa family will be present. Instead, the speaker of the parliament will preside over a gathering of some 300 guests chosen by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa from a broad range of civil society.

The main Shia opposition, al-Wefaq, which gained 43 percent of the popular vote in the 2010 parliamentary election, will have only five representatives at the talks. It is unclear if their political demands will be heard over the myriad other groups, one of which has vowed to petition the king over its failed investment in a luxury housing development gone bust. There is no clear mechanism to prioritize complaints, and no guarantees that they will be acted upon.

The National Dialogue transforms citizens insisting on their political rights into subjects petitioning the King. It is a parody of the opposition’s key demand: A constitutive assembly to realize a genuine constitutional monarchy, a system where elected representatives in a fully empowered legislative assembly could effectively hold such a “national dialogue” and actually have the popular legitimacy and political clout to deliver on it.

But the problems with the National Dialogue go beyond its structure, to the context within which it is taking place. To have a real dialogue people need to be free to express their opinions.

Over the past four months those in power in Bahrain have created an environment where this is impossible. Most obviously, the harsh sentencing of many of the prominent leaders in the opposition through expedited trials in special security courts means that key figures will not be at the table. Yet even the mainstream opposition enters the dialogues under relentless attack by the state-run media, which has buried their reform message and painted them as thugs and tools of Iran.

The opposition is not alone in having its allegiance questioned. The hardliners in power have orchestrated assent to their policies through loyalty petitions at workplaces and loyalty pledges in the university.

This creates an environment where merely staying silent leaves one suspect. It effectively polices the Sunni community as well, leaving no space to question the direction in which the country is being taken. Efforts have also been expended to discredit any foreign voices who question their actions, including a very ugly public campaign against a U.S. embassy official and a libel case against the British newspaper The Independent.

Promising open dialogue in such an atmosphere and through such a framework is disingenuous, but it is more than just a public relations exercise. Inviting the opposition to the National Dialogue is offering them a poisoned chalice.

The centrist groups most invested in engagement - the Shia Islamist al-Wefaq, and the secular leftist al-Wa’ad - desperately want to reverse the current dynamic, which is mobilizing the worst forces of intolerance and generating a poisonous sectarian divide that will be very difficult to traverse. But entering under a framework so clearly designed to fail them is splitting their ranks and driving them further from their popular base. It will undoubtedly weaken them.

The mainstream opposition is not the only force for reform under attack. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa - the royal most associated with reform and most respected by the opposition - is notably absent from the proceedings. And in recent weeks the labor market reforms he has championed - reforms to increase the cost of foreign labor and to create a fund to train Bahrainis - have been scaled back.

It is clear that the trajectory of the past ten years of reform - flawed policies to be sure, but policies that increased the integration of the Shia in the economy and politics of the state - are being reversed.

Bahrain needs more than dialogue; it needs real political reform. The United States should be working to empower those who are prepared to take the risks to achieve this.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Kristin Diwan.

soundoff(28 Responses)

j. von hettlingen

I suppose the Shia majority would not be able to achieve their goals, as long as Saudi Arabia stands firmly by their royal siblings in Bahrain.
The world shouldn't look up to the US for help. I am afraid it's too sheepish to persuade or coerce Saudi Arabia to change its course in Bahrain. Change has to come from inside, from Saudi Arabia itself.

The US should take responsibility to protect the people in Bahrain at the end we have our US fifth fleet in it. Isn't it hypocrisy to make sanctions on Libya and Syria, but not Bahrain, all these governments killed protesters for asking for democratic reform, at least in Syria the president promised Reforms but in Bahrain they didn't even acknowledged that they want to do reforms, they just keep killing and imprisoning opposition through military courts and prisoners are tortured daily.

so pround of you Tom for highlighting the truth... seems like our government has forgotten that word around here... dont they know that "what goes around, comes around" and that "evey dog has his day"
thank you sir and thank you CNN

all these problems that is happening in Arabic countries there is one reason for it ... it is saudi country this country represented by them govt is the main reason for all the crimes in all this world they r really strange ppl they have a lot of theories u can say crazy theories about life when the person have different religion like be Shiite or Christian then he do not deserve anything this is what they believe in judgin ppl from them religion they deal with ppl in this corner they believe that if ur ruler is bad or murder then u do not have any right to refuse him u must obey this is really madness i made a lot of search on these ppl really i feel god coz i'm not live on saudi coz i can not live with out my car hhhh this is the simple things that they refuse it

Whats happening in Bahrain is all because of IRAN its the source of trouble and un-civilization, Sunnis shiites christians jews and all other religions were living in peace until hizb il lat came with IRAN. I hope this dialogue goes well and everything becomes better and things go back better than before.God bless Bahrain and God bless Saudi Arabia

Your comment indicates; either you are stupid, ignorant, or biased racist based on your religious background. What happened in Bahrain is a civil rights, people want constitutional monarchy, a fully elected government. We don't care about Iran, don't blame Iran with entirely internal Bahrain issue.

Calling someone stupid is exactly what is holding Bahrain back, when protestors began with peaceful legitimate demands I supported them, but unfortunately what was once peaceful has turned into an act of chaos, roads blocked, people being threatened just because they are Sunni, Iran has made public statements about getting involved in Bahrain, anyone who denies that is not being logical, the opposition leaders made public statements about calling for the aid of Iran.
Regardless of all of that, the country we love is slipping away from us, we want reform, you cannot say that a national dialogue will not work before you even give it a try, if you really care about the future of Bahrain then you would support going into the national dialogue with no prior prejudgments, see how it goes and then judge.

July 4, 2011 at 3:10 am |

Ammar

i think ignorance is your middle name. Stop trying to mask Iran's disgusting fingerprints from this. We go to work, have a home and a comfortable living. I think my rights r pretty much guaranteed. Iran would be better off using their resources to help their own ppl instead of all this trash they try to spew over to other countries.

July 6, 2011 at 2:03 am |

freedom

hey when will you get your head out of the mud and look around you at what attrociaties are going on. listing iran is just a cover up and everyone knows about it. the whole world is laughing at the lies going on!!!!

Funny how Kristen, hastens to jump into conclusions without even visiting this tiny island. Placing doubt before the dialogue even started was the same attitude that have put us in a mess in the first place. If you have paid more attention to what al wefaq and waad have done in the past month, in the name of freedom of speech they have imposed and Islamic republic, took over the largest hospital, vandalized public property and fueled sectarian hate. Have we heard a single apology? No

we are on this tiny island... wake up sleepy and look around you and do not believe the blind Bahrain TV.. maybe you should watch U-tube about all what is happening around you...you sure are stupid with the comments you make!!

Bahrain national dialogue clearly will lead to reform in every corner and points that concern the people of Bahrain .
All the leaders of Bahrain is well respected by the people of Bahrain and the crown prince always in the picture and his genuine effort is well appreciated .
Bahrain can and will always resolve any issue and we don't need any outsider to inter fear in our home issues and it's known to the world that either pro or opposition are not silent and I would really appreciat if you would right in positive and try to make the Bahrain national dialogue success story rather than else.
Thank you dear

What a tragedy in our time to see that dispicable king in Bahrain triumph over his own people with the aid of the Saudis and their British cohorts! I get utterly nauseated to see people here praise the king of Bahrain who has the support of the cursed British and the Obama Administration. The future of Bahrain does indeed look grim!!!

How would an educated person not know the historically and scholarly established name Persian Gulf?
How can you be taken seriously when such rudimentary knowledge is lacking or distorted by ethnic bias?

Women's Societies
Social Societies
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Journalists
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Shura Council Member
Representatives Council Members
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the list was done by natural committee which chaired by the chairman of the parliament which he was elected by the people of bahrain and chaired the parliament by 40 out 40 vote including what so called the opposition they call him the big brother and he is trust worthy men and THE LIST NOT CHOSEN BY THE KING AS YOU CLAIM ,
P.S you need a better source of info,so reader can trust what they read with all do respect for you effort and you self .

ALwafag is a sect party only for minroty shite not acepting any citizen from other faith .alwafaq got only 80 thousand votes in the last election from 320 voters and from where the writre knows that the shite is a majorty we r the country people we know better .I ADVISE THE WRITER TO ASK ANY AMERICAN CITIZEN WHO WAS IN BAHRAIN DURING THE CRISIS THE SHITE CREATED AND THE CRIMES THAT POOR EXPAT,LOCAL AND POLICEMEN WERE MURDERED 391 POLICEMEN WERE INJURED 3 WERE KILLED .THE DOCTORS OCCUPIED THE HOSPITAL WAS OCCUPIED BY THOSE DOCTOR WHO DIDNOT ACCEPT ANY CASE FROM OTHER BELIEVE OR EXPAT AND THE BLOOD BANK WAS STOLEN AND WAS USED BY THE PROTESERS FOR MEDIA AND MANY PEOPLE WERE KILLED BECAUSE THE MADE UNNASSESRY OPS FOR MINOR INJURY THIS IS REALY TRUE >>AL WAFAQ IN IDOLOGY THEY ARE LOYAL TO KHOMINI AND THEY CANT DO ANY THING WITH OUT HIS APROVAL

Benjameen should be ashamed of himself or herself! I really don't know what to say about narrow minded individuals like this one. the reason America and other great nations are so great is because they embrace citizens regardless of their religion, race or colour. look at Colin Powell, he is black and reached the highest startus of being the Chief of Staff of the United States. Now, Obama is the President of the United States and he was votred in by white Americans. The black Americans alone could not havve vorted him in alone. This Benjameen cannot accept that there is a Shia majority. In America trhe whites are nort afraid that they are no longer a majority and that the Hispanic speaking population are becoming a majority. Bahrain since the arrival of Alkhalifa relied on mecenaries to stay in power. Being a Badu, like Gypsies, they have no lovve for the land. Bahrain was the garden of Eden, lush green island with natural springs all over the island. The Alkhalifa on arrival divided the island among their clans and claimed ownership, from humnas, palm trees to cats and dogs! Today Bahrain is dry of everything: palm trees, water, vegetation. With mercenaries like Benjameen advocating the killers as innocent, Bahrain will not see peace. Invaders came and gone: Phoenicians, Greeks, Romans, Persians, Omanis, Portughese and now Alkhalifa: they have all came and gone and the nation of Bahrain will remain. Bahrain was called Dilmon by the Phoenicians, Tylos by the Greeks, Awal by the Arabs before Isalm. Bahrain is sad troday and bleeding but, there will be a new sunrise sooner or later and Bahrain will yet again overcome the invaders, whoever they are.

By the way, the Arabs have a way of calling nations and places and natural matters like water and seas: the Arabs called the Mediterranean: Bahr Alroom or the Sea of Rome because Rome is on the other side of the Sea from where Arabia is. They also called the Gulf separating Arabia from Persia Bahr Alfors or the Sea of Persia because Persia is on the other side of the Gulf yet, the new Arabs cannot accept Histroy and they think that by calling the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf, they can re-write history.

Going back to national dialogue in Bahrain, I can only hope that there will be a shift by the Sunni population of Bahrain of the realities on the ground: that Bahrain is made of Shia who lived there for ever and Sunnis who came later and that the country is for both sects and there is equal opportunities to both sects. Failing that, there will be no peace and Bahrain will remain boiling but, notr for long, as Saudi will crumble sooner or later and then Bahrain will see the end of Alkhalifa. Whether the Americans, the British or the rest of the world like it or not.

I would like to make minor correction to the statistics provided by Dr. Diwan regarding al-Wefaq gaining 60 percent of the popular vote in the 2010. According to the official statistics, Al Wefaq managed to obtain
90,398 votes out of an electorate of 318,668 i.e. 28.4% of the popular vote only. I sugget to Dr. Diwan to obtain her information from more reliable sources.

I have been travelling to Bahrain for 20 years. the cost of living and freedom in Bahrain has always been better than any other gulf state. every thing subsidised for the locals at the expense of the expats. The Government has always forced companies to employ local Bahrain people and surprise surprise they comply, employ and tell them to stay home because they are lazy disruptive and will not work. In a democratic world we all have to work, nothing is given for free. It is a pity these people do not understand what democratic society entails

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