Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SPC AC 261249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ALONG THE NE GULF COAST
AND INTO TONIGHT FROM THE FL PENINSULA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER WILL MOVE INLAND TO
SW GA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/S TX EJECTS ENEWD TO GA...WHILE PHASING WITH A
NRN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SEWD TO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
BY 27/12Z. A NWD/NEWD SURGE OF A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SW ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...FROM THE NE GULF COAST AND FL TO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...NE GULF COAST TODAY...
THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 68-72
F...HAS BEEN SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS NOTED OFFSHORE IN RADAR IMAGERY. AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD SW GA THIS EVENING...THE WARM
SECTOR WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD INLAND...MOST PROMINENTLY ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG ON THE ADVANCING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR...SUCH
THAT SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD SPREAD INLAND BY MID-LATE
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS.
...S GA AND THE CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE SLOWED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHILE THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FL PANHANDLE FROM THE LOOP CURRENT
TODAY...AND DEVELOP E OF FL OVER THE GULF STREAM BY TONIGHT.
THUS...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE
CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA INTO S GA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
STILL..BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 500 J PER KG/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED
OVER N FL AND S GA BY THIS EVENING...WHERE A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF
STORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL W
COAST. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CENTRAL TO S
FL...AND BUOYANCY WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE WEAKER INLAND AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE INLAND WEAKENING OF BUOYANCY SHOULD NOT BE SO
PRONOUNCED AS TO INHIBIT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
A RAPIDLY MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL FRONT RETREATS INLAND IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
APPROACH THE 66-68 F RANGE...WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BECOME ROOTED AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A 50-70 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL CONCURRENTLY
OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR
THE COAST...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A RISK FOR
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IMPACTING THE ERN
CAROLINAS WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL WITH EMBEDDED CELLS...EMANATING OFF
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THUS...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 11/26/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z