ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: September 2012 Edition

Author(s): Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Economic Research for the Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation

Recent data indicate that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Amid slow job growth, sluggish business investment, and subdued inflation, the FOMC moved to provide additional monetary stimulus at its September meeting. The additional monetary stimulus is expected to support a stronger recovery. GDP is expected to expand at about a 2.5% pace in 2013 and about a 3.3% pace in 2014. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to come down to about 7.9% by the end of 2013 and about 7.3% by the end of 2014. Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index is projected to remain below 2% through 2014.