Chile Economic Activity June 2018

Chile: Economic activity remains solid in June

August 6, 2018

Economic activity rose 4.9% year-on-year in June, according to the Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity (IMACEC) published by the Central Bank of Chile. The result came in on par with the previous month’s print and comfortably overshot analysts’ expectations of a 3.0%–4.0% increase.

Expansion was once again led by robust non-mining activity, with the non-mining index up 5.0% in annual terms in June thanks to robust performances in the trade and manufacturing sectors (May: +6.9% year-on-year). Meanwhile, mining growth eased to 3.7% in June, from 4.7% in May.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity swung back from a 0.7% month-on-month expansion in May to a marginal 0.1% contraction in June. In addition, the trend continued to improve, with annual average economic activity growth surging to the highest level since January 2014 in June.

Chile GDP Forecast

The Central Bank sees GDP expanding between 3.0% and 4.0% in 2018, and between 3.3% and 4.3% in 2019. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 3.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.

The business confidence index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza Empresarial) published by ICARE and the Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez fell from June’s 55.1 points to 52.2 in July, marking the lowest reading this year so far.

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