Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand?

Mex

Moderator

Posts : 595Points : 1056Join date : 2010-09-02

We are roughly half way through the season and have seen a number of athletes show their cards by taking a win and a healthy bonus for the Stawell carnival. If we were to create a final from those who have taken a bonus, who would be a part of our first draft?

Rizzo - Rizzo is a quality athlete. He has an electric start and if he can do this in the final this year he will give himself every chance of winning. Off a mark of 4.5m he will run somewhere in the 12.23 range if he does not have more up his sleeve. If he can find a little then we could see something very special this Easter indeed.

Woodgate - I was a little surprised to see Woodgate take an early win. I had thought one of his stable mates to have a better chance. Sitting on 7.25m for Stawell he has a good mark but can he also improve enough? His winning time at Terang is not a good guide as that give him a chance at running a 12.7 off his new mark. I think he has a little more than that in the tank. Keep watching his stable mates, are they trying to win or trialing against others going for a bonus.

MacGibbon - Nick took a win last season and tried his luck but was not up to it. He is another who surprised me a little in taking an early win. I thought he may do like many before him and rebuild a year or two first. I don't have him improving enough to win based on him having a go last season.

Keast - Keast took a good win at Ararat and moves to 9.75m and a big chance to make a final. He is dangerous out in front and if he can control the nerves of having guys chase him down he could be an interesting prospect.

Hilson - When you can run a good 400m you can generally run out a 120m. Does he have enough speed to take this one out? I feel that f he were to line up against Woodgate, MacGibbon, Sonsini or Baird in a semi final who will all have essentially the same mark that he may struggle.

Coates - We can put a line through Coates straight away. She will not be able to make a final at Stawell off 10m. She would need to improve her 100m pb to 11 or 11.10 to be a chance and then replicate it on grass and maintain this for the extra 10m metres which I do not think she will do.

Sonsini - There was a whisper about Sonsini last season and then he took a bonus. He met Rizzo in a semi and we know how that went. Has he improved enough to mount a challenge. He is a nice looking runner and would be very interesting to see him in the big dance.

Despard - Despard has given himself a sniff but he needs to run a little better. How much can he improve by simply running on a good track. St Albans has not produced a good track for a while and is lucky that the times continue to be quick due to the downhill nature of the back end of the gift track. Let's play it safe and say that on a good track he is a metre better off. That puts him in 12.2 range and a chance.

Baird - Baird is another good looking runner who will start off 7.25m. He can make the final. The Castlemaine track is quick and I feel that Stawell is similar in that its preparation is great. I have him in the 12.2 range already and I am sure he will find a little more.

That leaves MacGibbon, Hilson and Coates missing out based on current knowledge about times and a gut feel.

Obviously there will be others win throughout the season and obviously there may be a smokey who is already running the times and wants to sting the bookies rather than show their form. This list is just from the current recipients of the bonus.

Baltimore Jack

Posts : 100Points : 117Join date : 2014-11-03

Woodgate's time at Terang is irrelevant. Heavy rain and blustering wind, lush track made it slow.Woodgate took the win to save himself a lot of money. Eschebach has spent five times more than Woodgate and still has 6.5 because he hasn't been able to win.also Woodgate started off more than he should have because he ran 12.35 at Stawell off 6.25. Net time was 12.45 early in the season. He should have about 5.5. So he was smart enough to realise he had a generous mark and has locked in 7.25 at Stawell. If he improves a metre on last year he breaks 12.2.

El Chapo Guzman

Posts : 31Points : 41Join date : 2017-03-15Location : Sinaloa, Mexico

James Woodgate ran 12.46 in his heat and 12.67 at Stawell last season from his 6.25m handicap. So without improvement he has the potential to run in the 12.35 range.Tim Eschebach knows the value of spending some coin. Has 2 x Stawell Gift finals and 200m sash to show for it. He also has the potential to be coming home with another Stawell sash in 2018, but not in the Gift. Would love to see Brendan Matthews sitting in front of the Gift winning finalists above off 7.5m if he wins this Friday after being in his last of 3 finals in 2015 running 12.34 on a wet track. Add Browne off 6.25m and Wyllie off 9.50m if they both win the Gift bonuses this weekend.

El Chapo Guzman

Posts : 31Points : 41Join date : 2017-03-15Location : Sinaloa, Mexico

4th - 6th place in the Stawell final all incur a 1/4m penalty on top of sample times the following season. So Campbell comes back a small margin.Phelan best handicapped Vic on multiple sub 12.45 runs last season from 9.75m.

El Chapo Guzman

Posts : 31Points : 41Join date : 2017-03-15Location : Sinaloa, Mexico

Key word is handicapped Tim. So regardless of age everyone has the opportunity to be competitive from one’s hcp is paramount. The fact that Leigh has a red hot crack each time he competes means he’s thereabouts in the big Gifts. 2nd place in 12.47 on the weekend suggests age is no barrier, nor should it be. btw most runners just like you are running at 100% intensity each race correct?

Toolman

Posts : 61Points : 80Join date : 2015-02-17Age : 65Location : Tooleen

I don’t think El Chapo Guzman is implying Leigh or yourself don’t have a crack every time you run Tim. Leigh is one bloke that I don’t think anybody could say he isn’t having a crack. In regards to best handicapped Vic El Chapo is entitled to his opinion but I think from 10m he will probably come up short again if he is having another Stawell tilt. Wouldn’t be surprised if he picks up a decent win a little earlier.

Mex

Moderator

Posts : 595Points : 1056Join date : 2010-09-02

I like Matthews in the final. I am not sure that he ever really came back from being in the final previously and now has a lift as well. Big chance. Wyllie also a good chance. I don't have MacGibbon though.

YETI

Posts : 49Points : 49Join date : 2018-01-03

Mex wrote:I like Matthews in the final. I am not sure that he ever really came back from being in the final previously and now has a lift as well. Big chance. Wyllie also a good chance. I don't have MacGibbon though.

Not wrong Mex. Matthews never fully bounced back from his 2015 final appearance, however this could be the year he does and goodluck to him. Strange about MacGibbon, I reckon he is a quality athlete and if he can improve on his technique and execute his race plan. There is most certainly a final spot there for his taking. However don't believe he has the ability to take it out. What athlete's are you starting to back?

There are a few athletes playing the game and the most open stawell this time around. But no one has really come out and showed their cards early. However there will be an interstate athlete that will lay down his hand come easter monday .

YETI

Posts : 49Points : 49Join date : 2018-01-03

auspro wrote:That's a nice list 12.30 runners. Despard the only 1 that is improving enough to give it a shake. Good year for a smokie to run 12.20 ftw

Auspro you must be delusional if you believe despard is the only athlete that will give it a shake. Don't get me wrong the kid has pure ability, but will only final at best. There are a few athletes i would put before him:| .

auspro

Ribera

Expert

Posts : 204Points : 286Join date : 2010-08-19

I think the Stawell lift bonus is a bit of smoke and mirrors. Anyone chasing the lift probably doesn’t have enough even with the lift. The Stawell Gift winner generally has enough handicap in the bank to win comfortably. The last time the gift was run without the Stawell lift bonus incentive in place (2015), Murray Goodwin won. He ran off 0.50m less than he ran off at Ararat due to suspect performance. He won comfortably.2016 Dunmall beat Sanderson-Millera by a small margin. They were comfortably clear of Hale. Dunmall went under the radar all year and got some handicap back after winning Stonnington the previous season. Sanderson-Milera copped a 0.50m penalty for a fast 200m time (I think). 2017 Rizzo got the 1 metre bonus for winning Northcote Gift but end up winning by much more than the 1 metre, proving he didn’t need it.

I think the bonus lift is good for someone who wants to just make the final. That for many athletes would be the highlight of their career (especially young athletes these days who just want to get on the TV and get their 5 minutes of fame).

YETI

Posts : 49Points : 49Join date : 2018-01-03

Totally agree with you Ribera. The Stawell bonus lift system is most certainly a hit & miss.

It's one of those grey areas where you either love it or hate it. Last 2 years showing that it doesn't always mean athlete's that receive the bonus go on to make the Stawell Final. Like you said most athlete use it to just make a final and they are happy with that.

Nothing at all

ProTrack Star

Posts : 92Points : 138Join date : 2010-07-19

Despard ran 10.7 electric recently. Off 4.5m, he is going to have to move quicker than that if he is to shake things up. I agree, he can make a final but I would be very suprised if he finishes in the top 2. Hope he proves me wrong as i would love to see a run off 4.5m win it. The only others who have taken a bonus who i think can make a final are Woodgate, Rizzo and Matthews. The rest of the bonus winners are kidding themselves as they would not be able to beat Rizzo off the marks.

I do think this year is proving to be very wide open, hence why Rizzo is still a chance to go back to back. Can Rizzo give Woodgate 2.75m? I'm not quite sure he can. I do think Woodgate is the one to beat at the moment. So far however, no one has come out and smashed the field and made a statement. Could be a very tight Stawell Gift Final! #notlongnow

2017 Stawell gift win off 7.5m min pull for Stawell is 3m, also runs 2m under ceiling time of 12.24

Now my understanding is you get pulled from your original mark, not from your bonus mark, so in saying that,

after 2016 Northcote win his handicap get a min pull .5 back to 6m, he then wins Stawell gets the min pull of 3m,so handicap goes back to 3m for a 120m (and that doesn't include a pull for running under time)

He starts the season off at sandy and run off 3m (3.5m 120m) and wins another bonus 1m.

Tell me im wrong, but shouldn't he run off sandy off 2.5m or less for running under time at stawell.

His mark should be at least 1.5m for the 120m and run off stawell with 1m bonus off 2.5m.

Now that makes it alot harder to go back to back. Dont get me wrong i like the bloke, but rules are rules and others had the appropriate handicap adjustments after last season. Good luck with that Mr Handicapper.

timrosen35

Posts : 69Points : 89Join date : 2014-03-27

Let me clarify something for you Dragon Walrus. Firstly let’s correct your facts. Matt Rizzo ran 12.10 at Stawell. If an athlete runs a 12.10 let’s say off 7.5 as he did, then it doesn’t mean they have broken ceiling time off 6m too. Ceiling time is an RPM calculation. So 12.10 off 7.5 would be approx 12.25 off 6m (his actual mark as you pointed out once penalty’s and Stawell bonus are taken out). So there would be no additional pull for ceiling time. Argue other points if you choose, but at least get the ceiling time facts right. No idea how you came up with 1.5m as a start mark. Matt will have to win Stawell off 3m less this year if he is to do so. So it’ll still be a tough ask. Maybe that should’ve been 3.5m less according to the rules but oh well. He turned up on the mark he was given and ran. But to say he should’ve been off 1.5m is ludicrous.

Dragon Walrus

Posts : 54Points : 69Join date : 2014-02-13

Hey, Tim, pretty sure current runners handicaps have been adjusted off there fastest rpms and held for 5 years, and each year they come back to that start mark. I know a few, his rpm at Stawell doesn't get adjusted off 6.5, it should be adjusted off 7.5, my 1.5 was his discrepancy pull of 1.5m for running under ceiling time.

but that's the thing, no pull for Northcote win, or running under time, and we all know handicappers are using a lot of discrepancy with nap's etc at the moment.

He Runs off what he is given, still doesn't mean its right, rules need to be abided by.

timrosen35

Posts : 69Points : 89Join date : 2014-03-27

What I am saying is by all means argue he should have had 0.5 less due to Northcote penalty not being there, but under the current rules he did not break ceiling time. The “breaking of ceiling time” off 7.5 would take him back to the 6m he already had. If that makes sense. Hopefully it does

Nothing at all

ProTrack Star

Posts : 92Points : 138Join date : 2010-07-19

I think most people agree that Rizzo should have come back further than he did. Does the handicapper have the courage though to fix the error. Rizzo has done nothing wrong! He's run off the mark he was given. To put it into perspective Rizzo wins Stawell and Northcote and comes back 4m. Compare the pair. . . When Houlihan came second to Goodwin, he came back 3m the following season??? Also just from memory I think Brendan Matthews came 3rd in that final off 6.75m. Now has 7.5m. Could he emulate the great Chris Tuohy!!! Anyhow poor old Houlihan still on 5.25m when he ran off 7.25m to finish second. Shows you the massive consequence of coming second in a Stawell Gift!!! Worst place to finish!!!

WhataboutmeMrHandicapper

Posts : 35Points : 46Join date : 2012-11-13

Why are there different handicaps for different Stawell Gift results? One year an athlete runs 3rd, he gets pulled 1.5, another guy runs 3rd and he hardly gets pulled at all. Matthews ran 3rd off 6.75 only 2 Stawells back and by Marbyrnong he had his mark back. Houlihan, runs every second week in Victoria, beat Matthews hardly runs in Vic and made 3 Stawell finals, by 1 metre in 2015. Now meets him 2.75 worse off? I just don't get it. If you are thinking it's wide open you are delusional. Very few chances to win. Plenty for 4th, 5th 6th.Matthews has a PB of 10.69 to go with it. Matthews off 7.5 will finish in the top two at Stawell. Probably with Rizzo. The only other contender is whoever from the Vikings. Delahunty, Gilfillan someone like that.