AN UNPRECEDENTED surge in support for Greens in the ACT could
see the Coalition deprived of its slender Senate majority
immediately.

Liberal senator Gary Humphries is under siege from Greens
candidate Kerrie Tucker, whose primary vote is running at around
20% according to the latest polling.

The Coalition has a two-seat majority in the 76-member Senate,
meaning that the loss of only one seat would see the chamber split
evenly between 38 Coalition senators and 38 Labor and minor party
senators.

Because senators elected from the two territories take their
seats straight away, the numbers will change as soon as Parliament
sits after the election. The rest of the Senate won't change until
July 1 next year.

New figures provided by the Australian Electoral Commission last
week showed that the ACT has experienced a dramatic rise in the
number of first-time voters aged 18 and 19, while there are more of
them proportionally than in other parts of the country.

Malcolm Mackerras, a prominent psephologist and Visiting Fellow
in Political Science at the Australian Defence Force Academy,
believes that on current indications, the Greens will end up
holding the balance of power in the new Senate.

"After July 1 next year, I estimate that the Senate will be 34
Coalition, 33 Labor, seven Greens, one Family First and one
independent, Nick Xenophon from South Australia," Mr Mackerras told
The Sunday Age.

That would mean Labor winning three Senate seats in every state
except Western Australia, plus one senator from each of the
territories.

Mr Mackerras, who is also predicting that Labor will win
government with a 30-seat majority in the House of Representatives,
says that means that Labor leader Kevin Rudd would have to
negotiate with the Greens to get legislation through instead of the
Coalition.

"I don't believe the Greens will be as difficult to deal with as
some people think, especially not with a new government elected
with a fresh mandate," Mr Mackerras said.

The last time Labor won more than 30 senators was in 1990, when
it had a total of 32. According to a Morgan Poll conducted earlier
this month, Labor's overall Senate primary vote stood at 44.5%,
with the Coalition on 35.5%. Nationally, support for the Greens was
9%, while among the minor parties the Democrats were on 3.5%,
Family First 2%, One Nation 1%, and support for other parties and
independents was 4.5%.

Support for Pauline Hanson in Queensland went backwards, with Ms
Hanson polling 5.5% of the Queensland vote during October, down 2%
on September. To win a Senate seat, candidates must win 14.3% of
the vote in their state.

Mr Mackerras said he believed this election would see the
Democrats lose all four seats they currently hold.

"I am not predicting any wins for them, although I believe that
Andrew Bartlett in Queensland has a chance and will put up a strong
fight," he said.

Mr Mackerras said he did not believe Family First would win any
seats.

According to bookmakers Sportingbet, Family First has only a 23%
chance of winning another Senate seat.

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