I'm going to be taking a different approach to creating the NSBB top 30 prospect list this year. Last year we had a tough time gathering our usual team of experts together to create the list. We may still try to do that this year, but we will also be creating a "community" list. Here are the steps:

Generate a pool of potential players

Create a thread for discussion of the list (probably this one!)

Starting from the #1 spot on down:

After a discussion of the current pick in the thread, post a poll where people get to vote

Each poll will list around 10 players nominated for that slot in the discussion thread

Everyone voting will get to vote for three players for that spot

The poll will remain open for three days

If there is a clear winner at the end of the three days, discussion will move on to the next slot

If there is a close vote, a runoff will be held with a single vote per participant

Once a winner has been determined for that slot, comments about that player will be collected from the discussion thread and posted to the official results thread

To get things kicked off, I'll use the list from Sickels to define the pool of prospects to consider. Please feel free to nominate additional players and start the discussion about the pool of players to consider for the #1 prospect!

Baez is the clear number one, not even an argument. I think Soler has a higher ceiling than Almora but Almora has a higher floor than Soler so that's why I give the edge to Soler as I value ceiling over floor when two guys are about the same distance away from MLB even though Soler is playing at a higher level already. Spots 5-20 probably has about 30 +/- candidates to fill those 15 spots.

_________________Screw Pitchers

Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

This is Baez' first full season in the minors. In 2011, he got 18 PA after signing in late August.

The former #6 draft choice started the season in extended spring training. After a promotion to Peoria in May, Baez more than showed he belonged in full season ball. He destroyed the Midwest league upon his arrival in Peoria to the tune of a .987 OPS.

He did show some cracks in his game, though. He has a very aggressive approach to the game that led to only a 3.8% walk rate and rubbed a number of opponents the wrong way. After a late promotion to Daytona, he appeared to struggle a bit with the more advanced pitching. However, most of the difference in production can be explained due to a .390 vs .200 BABIP and park/league factors hurting the power production.

The Cubs were confident enough in Baez to send him to the AFL as a 19 year old. His performance there was again hurt by a lack of patience and poor luck. His 3.39% walk rate was in line with his Peoria performance. Facing more advanced pitching did not hurt his contact rate, either, as he struck out in 23.7% of his PA (between his Peoria and Daytona rates). He also showed fantastic power in the league against advanced pitching with four home runs in only 59 PA.

I've been toying with the idea of a Steve Finley comp for Almora. Great contact hitter, should be decent but not top-line power in his prime. Doesn't have great speed, but is considered a very good defender. Similar build.

I'm just not sure if Almora will ever walk at that rate after getting off to a 2BB/174PA start to his career. Also, the stats don't really back up the "very good defender" part for Finley.

yeah, i was going to say Tejada or Adrian Beltre upside for Baez, and #1 in the system

worst-case scenario: Khalil Greene

As much as I'd love for the Sheffield comps to come true for Baez, I just don't see it anywhere but in the power department. For his career, Sheff was 13.5% BB and only 10.7% K. I don't think Baez will sniff either of those numbers.

I've been toying with the idea of a Steve Finley comp for Almora. Great contact hitter, should be decent but not top-line power in his prime. Doesn't have great speed, but is considered a very good defender. Similar build.

I'm just not sure if Almora will ever walk at that rate after getting off to a 2BB/174PA start to his career. Also, the stats don't really back up the "very good defender" part for Finley.

When I was looking at OF over the last 20ish years Finley is a guy who stood out to me as well as a good comp for Almora outside of the defense like you mentioned. Some sort of Winn/Finley/Damon combination might be the best way to try and comp him right now.

_________________Screw Pitchers

Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

As a resident "non expert," it's hard to imagine #1 not being one of the big 3.

As far as pure offensive upside, Soler seems to have it. However, Baez and Almora seem to be more complete players, and their positions add value.

The only possible dark horse as far as #1 goes could be Vizcaino. When it comes to pure upside, he likely tops any pitcher in our entire organization.

I'm still not sure why Soler is ahead of Baez on pure offensive upside. Bat speed and power potential for Baez is off the charts.

_____

Anyhow, my arguments for the top 3, depending on how fast you guys move -

1. Javier Baez - Can I buy an argument for Almora? Yes. Arguably a safer prospect in some respects. But Baez has a far higher offensive ceiling and he showed better than expected ability at short. I mean, Baez's offensive ceiling is ridiculous if it he reaches it. Legitimate elite middle of the order type bat. Does he have flaws, offensively and defensively? Defensively, he might outgrow short in time, but until then, his ability at short is a plus over the other two. Offensively, he's aggressive to say the least. That said, when you add in that he produced in full-season and Almora hasn't gotten there yet, I would have Baez, on a Sickels scale, as a A-, with Almora more of a B+, and I think at his young age, you can hope that he improves his deficiencies.

2. Albert Almora - You know, it was a toss-up for me for awhile, but with the reports trickling out about holes in Soler's swings, the fact that Almora plays CF and has good offensive upside got the nod.

Soler got the third spot. I'm not sure, in my mind, that anyone is close to Soler. Vizcaino's injury history makes it tough, Vogelbach's position makes it tough, Brett's K's ... go on down the line. I think that's the cutoff on the top tier.

I like Soler more than Almora. To me, his physical tools are better. And he put up better numbers playing at a higher level most of the time. Granted, he's 2 full years older than Almora, but he really started to rake toward the end of the season.

I wonder how our perceptions would be different if Vizcaino had come up through the system. He's been very good, and he lost a season and just turned 22 two weeks ago.

Baez has to be #1, but if Vizcaino is healthy and you like him as a future SP, I think he's #2 for me. I'd go Baez, Vizcaino, Soler, Almora.

I love Vizacaino (was largely derided on another site a few years back for preferring him to Teheran) ... but the injury history (first tore the ligament in 2010, IIRC), plus coming off TJ ... it's a bit of a concern. But ... if one feels comfortable enough about his health history (based off the assumption that TJ cleared up any significant issues that might have lingered), then okay, I can buy him at 2.

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