The Next Phase of the G.O.P. Race Starts Now

Most of the important action in the Republican presidential race has been out of sight, as candidates have courted donors and party leaders before formally jumping into the race.

The first debate on Thursday starts a new phase, as the campaign begins to play out much more in front of voters, with the potential for big shifts in the polls and ultimately the race. These six months leading to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary present special dangers for the mainstream front-runners and big opportunities for factional candidates like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and, as he is already proving, Donald Trump.

Most of the party’s long-watched “rising stars” aren’t in a great position to win the nomination, in part because they mostly appeal to just one faction of the party. But they will now have a chance to take advantage of the political talent that made them stars in the first place. They could surge to the top of the polls and even ride their strength to victory in Iowa or New Hampshire.

In doing so, they could easily define and decide the race — even if they don’t win themselves.

Even as candidates rise and fall, fundamental principles still apply. The eventual nominee will need wide support from party elites and will need to be able to build a broad coalition. In the long run, the race still favors mainstream candidates like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker — perhaps even Marco Rubio, who has struggled to break through. But in the next six months it may not feel like it.

The Factional Incentive

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CreditIllustration by Kelly Blair

Almost everything about this part of the race plays to the strengths of factional candidates and gives them incentives to make factional appeals. The visibility of the debates and free news media attention give them an opportunity to shine. The broad field makes it easy to rise to the top of the polls. The rise of super PACs and the Internet allows fringe candidates to gain attention without elite resources or media coverage.

Moreover, the Republican Party is so deeply split between factions — moderate and conservative, urban and rural, grass-roots and establishment, evangelical and secular — that winning any group can be as simple as telling it what it wants to hear.

Making it even easier still is a structural oddity: Conservative Iowa and moderate New Hampshire are each deeply unrepresentative of the party, which means a narrow base can generate a victory in one of the earliest contests.

The party’s most engaged activists tend to represent a disproportionate share of voters in caucus states, and Iowa is no exception. In 2012, 84 percent of voters in Iowa’s Republican caucus were self-described conservative, more than in any other state measured, according to exit polls. Forty-seven percent of voters described themselves as very conservative, second only to the share in Nevada, another caucus state. Iowa is also well above average in its number of evangelical voters.

As for New Hampshire, New England is the most secular and liberal region of the country. That alone would be enough to make the New Hampshire electorate far more moderate than elsewhere, but it’s even less representative of Republican voters because the state’s open primary allows registered independent voters to participate. Over all, just 53 percent of the state’s Republican primary voters in 2012 identified as conservative and 17 percent were very conservative. Only in Massachusetts was the primary electorate more moderate. Just 22 percent of voters in the 2012 New Hampshire primary were white evangelical Christians, compared with 58 percent in Iowa.

The size of this year’s field makes it even easier for candidates to win those early states with narrow bases. With the vote split so many ways early on, it might take only 20 percent of the vote to win Iowa or New Hampshire — not the 35 or 40 percent it will most likely take in Ohio or Virginia a month later.

This year’s field is full of candidates who could take such an approach. Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump or Ben Carson could play for the party’s most conservative voters in Iowa. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum could try for the evangelicals. Chris Christie, John Kasich and even Mr. Paul could appeal to the independents in New Hampshire. All have the political talent to vault to the top of the polls with a great debate performance, a strong campaign effort, a deluge of television ads or even newsmaking comments.

Mr. Trump has shown the way, and he may not be the last.

Another one of this year’s talented candidates could easily gain momentum and lead the polls at some point, and maybe even win an early state. Many of these candidates are experienced national politicians, who have already endured considerable press scrutiny. They have a better chance to have a lasting effect on the race than the various boom-bust candidacies of the 2012 election, like Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann.

Still, it would be surprising if a purely factional candidate ultimately won the nomination. Becoming a factional favorite usually requires candidates to stake out stances that make them unacceptable to the rest of the party. They struggle to compete in the bigger and more representative primaries later in the year.

But that doesn’t mean they can’t damage a front-runner and decide the race.

Danger for Front-Runners

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CreditIllustration by Kelly Blair

A strong factional candidate could easily deprive a more plausible candidate of a victory in an early state. Mr. Cruz could do it to Mr. Walker, and Mr. Christie could do it to Mr. Bush, among other possibilities.

It’s happened before. In 2008, Mitt Romney emerged from the invisible primary with the broadest appeal and most elite support, but narrowly. It’s a situation not so different from the one Mr. Bush is in now (and a contrast to George W. Bush, who was an overwhelming favorite by this point in the 2000 cycle).

Mr. Romney entered December 2007 with a lead in the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but he ultimately finished second in both states. Mr. Huckabee, a former pastor and a favorite of the evangelicals who represented 60 percent of the Iowa electorate, won the state by 9 percentage points. John McCain, the self-described maverick with great appeal to moderates and independents, won New Hampshire by 5 points. Mr. Romney might well have beaten both Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee if the early contests had been more representative.

Neither Jeb Bush nor Mr. Walker has amassed enough support to ensure beating back the strong competition on their flanks, a problem Mr. Romney also faced. Not only Mr. Cruz — backed by $50 million and with an irreproachable conservative record — but also Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Carson and others will take on Mr. Walker from the right. Mr. Bush will face competition for moderate conservatives from candidates like Lindsey Graham, Mr. Paul and Mr. Kasich, in addition to Mr. Christie.

Mr. Walker, in particular, may be at risk of alienating the rest of the party in the course of defending his flank. He has already moved to the right to appeal to conservative voters in Iowa, shifting his tone on issues like abortion, immigration and ethanol.

And while the factional candidates can afford or even benefit from controversial remarks, mainstream candidates have a lot to lose if they make a mistake. Party elites might start questioning whether they’re electable if they stumble in the debates or make a gaffe in an interview. In this phase of the race, there are more opportunities for candidates like Mr. Bush or Mr. Walker to make such mistakes, and create an opening for someone else.

Waiting for an Opening

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CreditIllustration by Kelly Blair

Factional candidates can easily surge in polls in this phase, but a more broadly appealing candidate could also break out.

No, it would not be as easy for a candidate who doesn’t have the flexibility to pander to one of the party’s factions. But a mainstream candidate could nonetheless impress party elites and voters enough to overcome disadvantage in such a factionalized atmosphere.

Mr. Rubio, for example, lacks a base and a clear path to the top. But he has strong favorability ratings and a large share of Republicans saying they would consider voting for him. And the reward for a breakout is greater: If he were to win Iowa or New Hampshire, he could win the Republican nomination, not just the runner-up prize.

This path could be easier if one of the other mainstream candidates falters. Most party elites remain on the sideline, and if Mr. Bush or Mr. Walker falls, they will be looking to another candidate — like Mr. Rubio or even Mr. Kasich — to lead the party into the general election.

Thursday’s debate may not be the moment when Mr. Walker falters, Mr. Rubio emerges or Mr. Cruz catches fire. But all of this is much more likely between now and January than it was over the last six months. We will soon know more about the candidates who are likely to make a name for themselves in 2016 — and about whether Mr. Bush and Mr. Walker, or someone else, will have the easiest path to the nomination.