With an Eye to Russia, Ukraine Considers New Missiles After Cold War-Era Arms Control Treaty Collapses

After nearly five years of constant combat, the war in Ukraine has, so far, killed more than 13,000 Ukrainians and displaced 1.7 million people. (Photo: Nolan Peterson/The Daily Signal)

KYIV, Ukraine—The impending demise of a Cold War-era arms control
treaty has sparked pledges from the leaders of both Ukraine and Russia to
develop and field more intermediate-range missiles, highlighting a new
flashpoint between the two erstwhile Soviet allies, which have been locked in a
limited land war since April 2014.

“We are no longer bound by any limitations either on the range of
our missiles or on their power,” Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a
March 9 speech.

“We have additional opportunities in Ukraine due to the fact that the Russian Federation has de facto broken the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the United States legally withdrew from it,” Poroshenko said.

Signed by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, banned missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles.

At its inception, the INF Treaty was meant to reduce the risk of
war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union—and it remained a cornerstone of
European security after the Cold War. When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991,
the INF Treaty rolled over to apply to post-Soviet countries, including both
Russia and Ukraine. For its part, the U.S. continued to respect the pact, too,
even though it did not apply to other countries like China and Iran.

In February, however, the U.S. suspended
its obligations under the INF Treaty,
claiming that Russia had been developing and deploying missiles in violation of
the pact’s limits for years. The U.S. said it will completely withdraw from the
treaty within six months of the announced suspension unless Russia returns to
compliance.

In turn, Moscow denied any violations and
announced that Russia was likewise suspending its participation in the INF
Treaty. Then, in a February address to
Russian lawmakers, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow had plans to develop a new generation of missiles and
target them at the U.S. if Washington follows through on canceling the Cold War
pact and deploys new missiles to Europe.

That news spurred officials in Kyiv to consider whether
Ukraine should follow suit and ditch the INF Treaty to begin building a new
arsenal of intermediate- and short-range missiles of its own—unbound by any payload
or range limitations.

“Ukraine can’t be inside of the INF Treaty simply
because the INF Treaty doesn’t exist anymore,” said Mykhailo Samus, deputy
director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, a
Ukrainian think tank.

“So, no obligations for Ukraine now,” Samus said.

Unbound

Ukraine has a legacy of rocket and missile technology from the
Soviet era. Roughly 40 percent of the Soviet
Union’s space program industry was located in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro
during the Cold War. It’s where Soviet engineers designed and built rockets
such as the Satan intercontinental ballistic missile, which was designed to
strike the United States with nuclear weapons.

After the Soviet Union’s breakup—and despite the
ongoing war in the Donbas—Ukraine never developed a missile capable of
launching from Ukrainian soil to strike Moscow. With the INF Treaty’s demise,
however, that looks likely to change.

“Our design bureaus and the industry are no longer bound by any
restrictions regarding missile range,” Poroshenko said on March 11, according
to Ukrainian news agencies, adding: “This means the issue of creating
high-precision, extended-range missiles capable of hitting targets far behind
enemy lines is on the agenda.”

Yet, some experts warn that Ukraine’s prospective
missile development program, no matter how limited it might be, could spur
Moscow to retaliate—and with potentially devastating consequences.

“Any attempt [by Ukraine] to develop [intermediate-range ballistic
missiles] targeted on Russia immediately provides a justification for Russia to
escalate the war with its own pre-emptive missile strikes across Ukraine. It is
senseless and, frankly, suicidal,” Stephen Blank, senior fellow for Russia at
the American Foreign Policy Council, told The Daily Signal.

Necessities

After nearly five years of constant combat in
Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Ukrainian forces remain engaged in a static,
trench war against a combined force of pro-Russian separatists, foreign
mercenaries, and Russian regulars. The war has, so far, killed more than 13,000
Ukrainians and displaced 1.7 million people.

Ukraine’s military budget is already stretched thin by the immediate needs of the war as well as a top-to-bottom military modernization program meant to overhaul Ukraine’s combined armed forces to defend against a Russian invasion.

The INF Treaty’s demise could add another flashpoint to the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine.

Many experts downplay the likelihood that Ukraine could mount a
serious challenge to Russia’s superiority in missile technology. For one,
Russia’s military budget is more than 20 times greater than Ukraine’s. Thus,
some say that Ukraine simply can’t afford to compete with Russia’s missile
program.

Kyiv has pledged to spend $7.45 billion on defense and security in
2019. Of that number, $3.6 billion will go to the Ministry of Defense. As a
point of comparison, Ukraine’s entire 2019 military budget is less than
one-third the $13 billion price tag of the newest U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford.

“I am skeptical that such a missile program would be developed by
Ukraine soon,” said Alex Kokcharov, country risk analyst for Ukraine and Russia
for the financial services company IHS Markit.

“Keeping robust defense capabilities, which are able to deal with
hybrid warfare and with trench warfare in the Donbas, are much bigger priorities
currently,” Kokcharov said. “I doubt that would change any time soon.”

However, Ukraine wouldn’t have to build its new missile systems
from scratch.

After Russia launched military hostilities in 2014, Ukraine began
developing new short- and intermediate-range missile systems—all of which
complied with the INF Treaty’s limits. Notably, the Neptune cruise missile and
the Grom-2 ballistic missile, both of which have reported maximum ranges of
about 300 km (186 miles).

Ukrainian experts say that with some relatively inexpensive
modifications, these existing missile systems could have ranges within the INF
Treaty’s prescribed range window of 300 to 3,400
miles. In that case, Ukraine would have the capacity to strike Moscow
with domestically launched missiles.

“I think it’s possible that the Neptune missile
will reach Moscow after modifications, because there won’t be any limitations,”
Samus said. “It will be natural for Ukraine to make these modifications.”

Consequences

Under the 1992 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine voluntarily gave up
its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, as well as most of its missiles, in exchange
for security assurances from the U.S., Russia, and the United Kingdom.

Many in Ukraine now see the Budapest Memorandum as a blunder,
leaving their country without the means to deter Russia from conventional and
hybrid military aggression. Therefore, in the eyes of some Ukrainian leaders,
building new missiles could be a means to regain some of their country’s lost military
clout.

“We need high-precision missiles and we are not going to repeat
the mistakes of the Budapest Memorandum,” Poroshenko said.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine is moderated in intensity and
geographically quarantined according to the rules of a February 2015 cease-fire
deal, known as Minsk II. Still, the daily fighting constantly threatens to
spark a much bigger, more devastating conflict.

For example, a November 2018 Black Sea naval confrontation, in
which Russian military units attacked and captured three Ukrainian navy
vessels, nearly ignited a bigger war. In the weeks that followed, Ukraine
declared martial law and fortified its southern seaboard against the threat of
a Russian amphibious invasion.

Since 2014, the war has upheaved the post-Cold War military
balance of power in Eastern Europe. Ukraine, for its part, went from fielding
just 6,000 combat-ready troops in early 2014 to a force that now comprises
250,000 active-duty military personnel and 80,000 reservists.

In terms of manpower, Ukraine has the second-largest military
force in Europe. Only Russia’s is bigger.

The war in Ukraine has also spurred countries across the region to
rapidly militarize to defend themselves against the Russian threat. And with
the U.S. and Russia now on their way out of the INF Treaty, and with Ukraine
apparently ready to follow suit, an already dicey regional security balance is
under even more pressure.

Amid that backdrop, some voices have criticized the U.S.
withdrawal from the INF Treaty, warning that the move could provide the
catalyst for a destabilizing regional arms race.

Mark Hertling, former commanding
general of U.S. Army Europe and the Seventh
Army, said the U.S. move “may portend additional
action on the part of Ukraine, but it could also contribute to other nations
getting into the fray as well.”

“It appears that without restraint from the U.S.,
and our continued adherence to the protocols of the INF, there will be various
governments that will begin doing things like this, that will continue to cause
the deterioration of the relative peace and stability that has been in Europe
for the past 70 years,” Hertling said.

Yet, other experts say it was high time for the U.S. to withdraw
from Cold War-era pact, especially since Russia had been violating its terms
for years.

“Continued efforts by the U.S. government over the last five years
to engage Russia to persuade them to return to compliance with the INF Treaty
have failed. All U.S. inquiries and efforts have been met with lies,
deceit, and denial,” Thomas Spoehr,
director of The Heritage Foundation’s Center for
National Defense, told The Daily Signal in an earlier interview.

For their part, top Ukrainian officials say that if Russia is
set to expand its missile arsenal, then Ukraine must reciprocate out of
military necessity.

“We must use everything to protect ourselves,” Ukrainian Minister
of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin said in February. “We already have
certain potential in the field of missile weapons, and it is we who will decide
which missiles we need for the future.”

The Daily Signal depends on the support of readers like you. Donate now

Don’t have time to read the Washington Post or New York Times? Then get The Morning Bell, an early morning edition of the day’s most important political news, conservative commentary and original reporting from a team committed to following the truth no matter where it leads.

Email address

Ever feel like the only difference between the New York Times and Washington Post is the name? We do. Try the Morning Bell and get the day’s most important news and commentary from a team committed to the truth in formats that respect your time…and your intelligence.