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We identify species-environment relationships to predict the occurrence of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) on forestlands in the southern US, where it has emerged as the most pervading, stand-replacing, alien tree species. Tallow invasions are most likely to be observed on low and flat lands, areas adjacent to water and roadways, sites recently harvested or disturbed, younger stands, and private forestlands. The winter extreme minimum trmperature tends to restrain tallow northward migration. Increases in both range and severity of tallow invasions are predited with a warming climate trend, and the situation could be worse if the warming is coupled with an increased frequency and intensity of disturbances. Monitoring and mitigation srategies are proposed to assist this region and other countries threatened by tallow invasions.

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