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Monday, 17 March 2014

2:20 Southwell Racing Tip (18th March) BOOKMAKERS.CO.UK HANDICAP

Caramelita hasn't produced a time to get him into my top three and he may find the five furlongs on the short side. Dancing Freddy is one of the three horses that are known to lead. This gelding, trained by Ann Stokell, comes out second on my figures so could be hard to peg back. If prices allow a good each way bet at odds of 4/1. Heartsong is the 3/1 favourite but only comes out fourth on my figures. It would only take one of those with better times to run to form for it to get beat. It has gone close lately and can either track the leaders or be held up. I would suggest a small lay bet on the win market only. Pearl Noir is another that tracks the leaders or can be held up and comes out third on my ratings and holds place claims at best. Two Turtle Doves has poor all-weather form and doesn't look a contender.Fathom Five is the second likely front runner but can also track the leaders but not ideally berthed in stall five. This horse has only produced slow times at course and distance and another outsider. Lucky Mark is usually a held up and may find this trip on the short side but I expect him to be running on at the finish. Gary Moss' charge doesn't have the times to get involved and I wouldn't be backing it to win. China Excels has poor form over course and distance, while a faster surface may suit. He has tracked leaders before and even led. Berthed best in stall three of the potential front runners. However, I doubt it will be there at the finish. Upper Lambourn has the fastest recorded time in the race but hasn't been in the best of form but none of its last five races have been over today's course and distance. It will either track the leaders or be held up and could be the strongest in the finish. SUMMARY: I was going to suggest we kept stakes low or even leave the race alone until I noticed something positive about Upper Lambourn - the jockey is one of the best. Joe Fanning rides mainly for Mark Johnston and does have two mounts for his retainer later in the card. So why has he just taken the one outside ride? I'm hoping it's because they are going to attempt to win the race so at the 14/1 price available i will be having an each way bet.

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