Sunday, January 27, 2013

NFL HALL OF FAME CLASS OF 2013

By Dan Trammel

@HighwaytoHall

Last month we attempted to predict the 15 finalists
for the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2013. We correctly selected 13 of the 15, missing
out on Kevin Greene and Edward DeBartolo, Jr. Both were finalists last year,
but we inaccurately thought Paul Tagliabue might gain some support from the
voters due to his role in Bountygate, while John Lynch might benefit from the
voters awareness of their general lack of support for safeties. We were wrong
on both counts. What we do know is that this class will be one of the most
difficult to predict in recent memory. Why? Unlike the Baseball Hall of Fame,
only five modern era candidates can gain induction in a given year. As a result,
there is a significant backlog of legitimate candidates. Since 1970, approximately
81% of all finalists have ultimately gained election. That number rises to 87%
when you remove players who are still on the ballot. Furthermore, of the
players no longer eligible for the modern-era ballot, only 17 players were
finalists multiple times but were not voted into the Hall. That number accounts
for only 7% of all of the candidates (since 1970). In other words, 13 or 14 of
the finalists on this year’s modern-era ballot will ultimately be enshrined in
Canton. When a minimum of 13 finalists are future Hall of Famers, how does one
predict which 5 will gain induction this year?

This year’s ballot contains a very strong list of
first-year eligible candidates: Larry Allen, Jonathan Ogden, Warren Sapp, and
Michael Strahan. Many people are predicting all four to make it. However, there
has never been a class with more than 3 first-time eligible players. 2006 was
the last time, when Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, and Reggie White were all
inducted. But 2 of those players were quarterbacks. And a quick look at a
positional analysis of the Hall of Fame shows the love affair the voters have
with the quarterback position. Of modern era players, the Hall of Fame contains
23 quarterbacks, compared to 21 wide receivers, 23 linebackers, and 23
defensive backs. In addition to the Class of 2006, 7 other classes (since 1970)
have contained 3 first-time eligibles:

1977

Forrest
Gregg

Gale
Sayers

Bart
Starr

1978

Lance
Alworth

Ray
Nitschke

Larry
Wilson

1980

Deacon
Jones

Bob
Lilly

Jim
Otto

1987

Mean
Joe Greene

Jim
Langer

Gene
Upshaw

1990

Franco
Harris

Jack
Lambert

Tom
Landry

1991

Earl
Campbell

John
Hannah

Jan
Stenerud

1993

Dan
Fouts

Chuck
Noll

Walter
Payton

Both the Classes of 1980 and 1987 contained 3
first-time eligible linemen. But it is hard to believe the voters will select 4
first-time linemen this year, especially considering only 7 linemen have been
inducted in their first year of eligibility since 1987: John Hannah, Randy
White, Anthony Munoz, Jackie Slater, Reggie White, Bruce Matthews, and Bruce
Smith.

Next, of the 15 modern-era candidates, 3 are coaches
or contributors. Some voters believe a coach or contributor should never take
the spot of a player. As a result, it is unlikely multiple contributors are
selected in a given year. The last time that occurred was 1997, when Wellington
Mara and Don Shula were selected.

Finally, during the voting process, the voters first
vote to narrow the list of 15 candidates to 10. They then vote again to narrow
the list of 10 candidates to 5. The final list of 5 candidates then requires
80% of the vote to gain enshrinement. Of the final 10 candidates in 2011, 5
gained induction that year, while 4 gained induction the following year. Only
Andre Reed was left out when Chris Doleman was selected over him. As a result, it
is helpful to look at the 5 players remaining from the final 10 in the Class of
2012 ballot to begin our analysis. Those candidates are Cris Carter, Andre
Reed, Charles Haley, Bill Parcells, and Aeneas Williams. These 5 were selected
over Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Edward DeBartolo, Kevin Greene, and Will Shields
last year, so it is probable (although not guaranteed) it will occur again. So
our list of 15 is reduced to 10 as follows:

Larry
Allen

Larry
Allen

Jerome
Bettis

Cris
Carter

Tim
Brown

Charles
Haley

Cris
Carter

Art
Modell

Edward
DeBartolo, Jr.

Jonathan
Ogden

Kevin
Greene

Bill
Parcells

Charles
Haley

Andre
Reed

Art
Modell

Warren
Sapp

Jonathan
Ogden

Michael
Strahan

Bill
Parcells

Aeneas
Williams

Andre
Reed

Warren
Sapp

Will
Shields

Michael
Strahan

Aeneas
Williams

At this point it is important to note that we are
not trying to predict the final 10, but the final 5. As such, we are not saying
that Art Modell or all of 4 of the first-time eligible players will necessarily
finish ahead of the eliminated 5 (Brown, Bettis, DeBartolo, Greene, and Shields).
This is simply to say we find it doubtful that these 5 will suddenly vault past
the 5 returning candidates who finished ahead of them last year. As a result,
it is easier to eliminate them at this point in our discourse.

Speaking of Art Modell, this is the ideal time to
touch on his candidacy. As we correctly predicted in a previous post, “When George Young died
in December 2001, he was selected as a Hall of Fame finalist each of the next
three years. This is perhaps due to the voters, all members of the sports
media, reviewing his career as part of writing obituaries for their newspapers.
Maybe this provided them with a new understanding and appreciation for his career.
With Art Modell’s death in September, a similar effect may occur. A finalist in
2002, Modell was described as a ‘polarizing but iconic’ figure. Enough nice
things were said about him upon his death that he may advance as a finalist.”
George Young, however, has not been inducted. Modell may be aided by the fact
the Baltimore Ravens, Modell’s former team, has advanced to the Super Bowl. The
voters have shown a tendency to select candidates who played for the host Super
Bowl team or one of the participating teams. This fact helps both DeBartolo,
the former San Francisco 49ers owner, and Modell. But it won’t be enough this
year. As noted above, the voters rarely elect multiple coaches or contributors
in a given year. And this year, the only non-player selected will be Bill
Parcells.

Last
year, the Hall of Fame voters discussed Parcells’ candidacy for 57 minutes. As
a result, he obviously is not regarded as an automatic lock. Perhaps it is
because his only Super Bowl wins were while Bill Belichick was present, a man
who has gone on to win more Super Bowls. Or maybe it is because he pissed off a
lot of people over the years. Nonetheless, his absence from the Class of 2012
caused a large uproar among the fans. He is a Hall of Famer and we expect him
to be selected this year.

That
leaves us with 8 modern-era candidates for the final 4 spots: 2 offensive
linemen, 3 defensive linemen, 2 wide receivers, and a defensive back. Many
times, players from the same position cancel each other out, most notably among
the receivers where Andre Reed, Cris Carter, and Tim Brown have been doing
battle for years. We have discussed their candidacy at length in a previous post. Although not being elected, Reed has continued to finish ahead of Carter
and Brown in the voting, signaling the voters obvious preference for him. The
question remains if this is his year. With Marvin Harrison appearing on the
ballot next year, and the likes of Terrell Owens looming, the voters are aware
they need to clear up some of the backlog. Consequently, Andre Reed will finally
receive his call to the Hall, while Cris Carter will have to wait another year.

Michael
Strahan has been a walking advertisement since his retirement. Warren Sapp has
been the opposite. They both have near identical resumes. Super Bowl champ. NFL
Defensive Player of the Year. 7-time Pro Bowler. 4-time First Team AP All-Pro.
2-time Second Team AP All-Pro. Member of the All-Decade Team (although Sapp is
a member of the All-Decade Teams for both the 1990s and 2000s). Strahan was a
defensive end while Sapp was a defensive tackle, but both terrorized quarterbacks.
Strahan is criticized for breaking the single-season sack record when Brett
Favre fell down in front of him. Sapp is criticized for taking plays off. Strahan
is generally liked by the media while Sapp is not. But most NFL teams are
trying to find the next Warren Sapp. He was the centerpiece of the Tampa-2 and
helped turn around a pitiful franchise. They both seem like first-ballot locks.
But will either get in? Things are complicated by the presence of Charles Haley
on the ballot.

A
5-time Super Bowl champ, Haley was named to “only” 5 Pro-Bowl teams and tabbed
a 1st Team AP All-Pro twice. But he was a key part of 5 Super Bowl
champions. He recorded 100.5 sacks, well behind Strahan’s 141.5. But he was a
key part of 5 Super Bowl champions. That carries a lot of weight with the voters.
So much so it was worth mentioning three times. He wasn’t as dominant as Sapp.
But Sapp has pissed off so many people he will probably have to wait until next
year. Strahan is an enigma because his face is everywhere right now. But we
predict Charles Haley will join the Class of 2013. Sapp will join the Class of
2014. And Strahan will be a member of one of them. But since we do not hedge
our bets at the Highway to Hall, we predict Strahan will wait one year and join
Sapp as part of the Class of 2014.

That
leads us to our next position: defensive back. Luckily, there is only one
defensive back on the ballot: Aeneas Williams. A 3-time 1st Team AP
All-Pro and a 2-time 2nd team All-Pro, Williams was named to 8 Pro
Bowls. Stuck with the Cardinals for so many years, Williams intercepted 55 passes
in his career and is 5th on the All-Time list with 13 non-offensive
touchdowns. A great player, Williams is aided by the fact no one will steal his
votes. He is the nominee we are least confident in. Nonetheless, we predict he
will be a member of the Class of 2013.

Our
final spot reserved for modern-era candidates comes down to Larry Allen and
Jonathan Ogden. Allen was a 6-time First
Team AP All-Pro and a 1-time Second Team AP All-Pro. He was named to 11 Pro
Bowls and is a member of the All-Decade Teams for both the 1990s and the 2000s.
He won a Super Bowl Ring with the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XXX. Ogden was a
4-time First Team AP All-Pro and a 4-time Second Team AP All-Pro. Named to 11
Pro Bowls, Ogden was selected as
NFL Alumni Offensive Lineman of the Year in 2002 and was named to the All
Decade team of the 2000s. He was a member of the Super Bowl XXXV winning
Baltimore Ravens. Both were dominant players and will gain induction soon.
Ogden may be aided by the Ravens presence in this year’s Super Bowl. But we
give the edge to Allen, due to his versatility and association with the
dynastic Cowboys, to be the final member of the Class of 2013.

We discussed the 2 Seniors Committee
nominees in a previous post. As noted at that time, Curley Culp will be the
only one selected for the Class of 2013.

The Class of 2013 will be as follows:

Larry Allen

Curley Culp

Charles Haley

Bill Parcells

Andre Reed

Aeneas Williams

The fans will be outraged that Carter, Odgen, Sapp,
and Strahan were not selected. In small part due to this, in small part due to
the lack of quality first-time candidates next year, and in large part due to
the fact these are the best returning candidates on next year’s ballot, the
Class of 2014 will consist of:

Derrick
Brooks

Cris
Carter

Jonathan
Ogden

Warren
Sapp

Michael
Strahan

Of course, if any of these players are inducted this
year, we reserve the right to amend our predictions prior to the announcement
of the Class of 2014.

But we believe Allen, Culp, Haley,
Parcells, Reed, and Williams will comprise the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2013. Please post any comments you have to the contrary. Just remember, this is what we expect will happen, not what we think should happen.