In what some political observers might view as shocking news, a poll of America Online members is currently forecasting a landslide victory for President Bush, who collects 48 of the 50 states in this year's electoral race.

The unscientific survey, whose results change in real time as more people vote, reveals with more than 34,000 participants, Bush takes a whopping 58 percent of the popular vote compared to 40 percent for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.

According to AOL's electoral map of the United States, there's a massive sea of red marked in favor of the Republican president, while only two states  Connecticut and Vermont, along with the District of Columbia  are marked in blue for the Democrat from Massachusetts.

That's a total of just 13 electoral votes for Kerry, compared to 525 for Bush. The magic number of electoral votes to win the White House is 270 .

"I find voters are blinded by their hatred of Bush and ignore the true issues," wrote AOL member Tarraballa on a messageboard related to the poll. "That is scary to me. Kerry may be winning in the war of 'hating Bush,' but he is not the best man for president. Do you honestly want Kerry in office when 9-11 hits again? I wouldn't."

Another member, Rme22567, took Bush to task for the past four years.

"He is treasonous, traitorous, too cowardly to even go to his cushy stateside assignment during Vietnam, and is the single most evil and incompetent, hateful president ever. Impeachment alone is too easy a sentence, he needs life in prison and should be charged with 928 counts of murder on U.S. soldiers."

AOL's interactive map allows users to click on each state, and view the total number of votes for that state.

For instance, in California, the biggest prize with 55 electoral votes, there was a virtual tie between Bush and Kerry, though the president had a razor-thin 39-vote margin as of 12:20 a.m. Eastern time this morning. Thus, California was counted in the Bush column. Ralph Nader got 2 percent of the California vote, though he has not made it onto the Golden State's ballot yet.

According to AOL voters, Kerry is not even carrying his home state of Massachusetts, where Bush takes 51 percent of ballot-casters.

While no one from AOL returned WorldNetDaily's request to comment on its straw poll by press time, the Internet service provider says on its site that each month, the voting starts over for candidates, and that AOL members are allowed to vote once per month.

Conceivably, someone with more than one screen name could cast more than one ballot, but such a "vote early and vote often" technique is open to people of more than one political persuasion.

AOL's giant red map is reminiscent of the USA Today map showing results from the presidential race four years ago, where Bush won the electoral vote, despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore.

The 2000 map shows a county-by-county breakdown, with red areas supporting Bush, and blue regions backing Gore. The final tally had Bush winning 2,434 counties nationwide to Gore's 677. The population of the Bush counties was 143 million as opposed to Gore's of 127 million.

Though the 2000 race was among the closest ever, sweeping landslides in presidential elections are not unheard of.

Ronald Reagan won 49 states in 1984

In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan won 49 states, while his opponent, Democrat Walter Mondale, took only his home state of Minnesota.

In 1972, Republican Richard Nixon won 49 states, while Democrat George McGovern collected only Massachusetts.

The last time a Democrat saw such sweeping landslides was in 1940 and 1944, when Franklin Roosevelt collected more than 400 electoral votes against Republicans Wendell Wilkie and Thomas Dewey, respectively.

During this year's political season, professional pollsters using scientific methodology have shown a close race between Bush and Kerry.

A Gallup survey following the recent Democratic convention had Bush receiving 50 percent support among likely voters, and Kerry with 47 percent. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry held a 50-47 lead.

According to a poll published Aug. 5 by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry held an electoral lead over Bush of 228-197, with 113 votes listed as toss-ups.

Rasmussen also puts out a daily tracking poll on the presidential contest, and yesterday's results had Kerry leading the incumbent in the popular vote 49 to 46 percent.

Interesting survey. It would make Kerry the second Democrat to fail to carry his home state. And the Electoral College vote matchup happens to be exactly the same total as Ronaldus Magnus' second term victory in 1984. Don't be surprised if it happens.

The poll projects 58% for Bush, 40% for Kerry and 2% for Nader. Admittedly, its unscientific but I think its right on the money. The President even wins Blue States like CA, IL, and NY as well as Kerry's own home state of MA. Apparently, eve Kerry's own home state voters have given him a big fat thumbs down. That's not good news in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans! A massive sea of Red! Wow, no more two Americas!

5
posted on 08/12/2004 12:27:41 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

I've been getting some internet based polling that balances the samples for Democrats, Republicans and Indy's. The group doing the polling is not pro-Bush by any means. It shows the media polls are shorting Bush by about ten percent. He is actually up about eleven points. Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, all are solid for the president. It's optimistic, I know, but something to consider.

Considering MA is filled with liberals, you would think Kerry would win his own home state? But he's losing! Its better than Algore losing Tennessee. And if there is a 48 state landslide, the Democrats won't be able to blame the Supreme Court or on Kerry's not getting the message out. Kerry's getting his message out and its not one the American people like.

10
posted on 08/12/2004 12:34:09 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

What's of more interest than the state by state projections, is that fact Kerry gets 40% of the popular vote. That's in line with what Democrats have received in the past. Its also a strong indication Kerry has NOT expanded his base of support beyond the ABB crowd. Something to think about.

11
posted on 08/12/2004 12:38:51 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

Internet polls are trash. For what they're worth (which probably isn't much), these results are the ones we should be concerned about:

A Gallup survey following the recent Democratic convention had Bush receiving 50 percent support among likely voters, and Kerry with 47 percent. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry held a 50-47 lead.

According to a poll published Aug. 5 by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry held an electoral lead over Bush of 228-197, with 113 votes listed as toss-ups.

Rasmussen also puts out a daily tracking poll on the presidential contest, and yesterday's results had Kerry leading the incumbent in the popular vote 49 to 46 percent.

So where is the supposed Bush surge? Do Bush supporters just not answer their telephones, or are they always working to keep the economy going and never home? Lots of work to be done, folks.

I get the same poll. I think the poll is skewed in favor of Bush because internet junkies, regardless of party affiliation, are better informed and better educated than people without internet access. These voters tend to vote more conservatively even if they are independent or Dem. Let's face it, the only way the Jackass Party can win elections is by propagandizing the issues with the ignorant masses.

I'm in California, and I'm voting for Bush. I also voted for our Republican governor.

The truth is California would be a solid Republican state if it wasn't for the SF Bay Area, which is very liberal, very activist, and turns out in extremely high percentages.

It really comes down to whether or not Republicans make an effort here and turn out the vote. It's an uphill battle here because the dominant media creates an atmosphere of persecution for anyone who isn't of the cosmopolitan liberal mindset.

The liberals here can't turn out their vote any more than it already is. In the recall, Orange County turned out as heavily as San Francisco. This is what will make the difference.

You may notice, Orange County turned out with 64% in the recall, actually beating San Francisco, the tiny little county showing 63% turn out. If OC and San Diego turn out in the same numbers or better this election, then Bush will win California.

Now, I'm as optimistic that Bush will win as the next person. However, this poll...is pretty much crap if you ask me. Every poll, from SurveyUSA to Gallup, has the race close. Now, these polls may not be the most accurate out there (especially if they over sample Democrats over Republicans), but still, they are CERTAINLY more accurate then any internet poll out there (polls that can be skewed by either Freepers or DUers). And one restricted to AOL members certainly doesn't add to the accuracy.

23
posted on 08/12/2004 1:22:05 AM PDT
by Simmy2.5
(The California Democrats are all Girlie Men. Wait, make that ALL Democrats!)

First, that map shows who voted for Arnold vs. Bustamonte. NOT for who voted for the recall. If you had that map, it would show a few more counties voting for the Recall. Including LA county.

Still, it is true that, without the Bay Area (and LA country), California would be a conservative state. But as you know, the Bay Area and LA county are BOTH the most populated areas of the state.

Now, it isn't impossible that Bush could win (until the Iraq problems and the 9-11 commission stuff, polls were showing them even), I won't be holding my breath on it. After all, the Dems and Indys that voted for the recall, doesn't mean they will vote for Bush (it was an election against Davis, not Democrats).

25
posted on 08/12/2004 1:28:31 AM PDT
by Simmy2.5
(The California Democrats are all Girlie Men. Wait, make that ALL Democrats!)

Scrap CNN, Zogby, etc. for polling data. Go to TradeSports.com These people have no political ax to grind, they are, not to be too polite about it, bookies. Their electoral math has Bush/Cheney ahead, but only by 13-16 electorals. Pennsylvania and Ohio are going to be hugely important. Florida, I think Bush gets this time, but this margin makes even New Mexico big. Watch where the busses go and the candidates spend money.

Things like this get us too complacent. I believe this as much as I believe Zogby.

This election will be CLOSE, and with the Democrat propensity to cheat and attempt to steal election by courts, allowing felons to vote, bribing the homeless and shutting out the military, we have to make sure Republican turnout is huge.

So not only do you need to vote, but bring your boys and talk to your co workers, neighbors and even the postman. Everyone must do their part on election day! We don't need to just win, we need to win by enough so that the Dim Rats can't try to steal it again. And this time, they even have the manufactured 'electroic screen' story and even European "observers" to try and give the election to Kerry through the courts.

Let your friends and family KNOW that we have to re-elect Big W. If you like your terrorists dead and your taxes low, you'll vote for GWB. If you don't, you won't.

29
posted on 08/12/2004 2:02:10 AM PDT
by Dragonspirit
(A RINO is someone not voting for President Bush in 2004 while claiming to be a conservative.)

They used to say that of Bush's father in 1988 when there was no FOX NEWS CHANNEL and the media was all liberal. Michael Dukakis led for awhile by double digit margins. Bush trounced him on Election Day by 12 percentage points.

30
posted on 08/12/2004 2:02:23 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

Which ever way it goes, it will NOT be close. The winner will be elected in a walk. I don't buy the media's annointing Kerry the winner and AOL, which should have a preponderance of liberals, isn't even going for Kerry. Why won't the people in his own home state vote for him? That's the $64,000 one I'd like an answer to.

31
posted on 08/12/2004 2:05:49 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

I respectfully disagree with you. A noted economist doesn't think it will be close and neither do most Americans. Kerry is quite simply a terrible candidate. That's not obvious now but it will be by Election Day. Stay tuned.

33
posted on 08/12/2004 2:24:01 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

GOPers are simply more tech savvy. As a native New Yorker, I can tell you that there is not a chance in Hades that New York will vote for Bush. As state politics go, it is amazing that NY is able to even get RINOs like Pataki.

Considering the tilt of people on AOL, I'm surprised it did NOT show a Kerry romp. It turns out even Lefties don't like him that much. Those who are voting are voting AGAINST Bush NOT for Kerry. I have yet to see a liberal give us a POSITIVE REASON why they support their candidate.

37
posted on 08/12/2004 2:51:56 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

The point about the poll is even if you think its far too optimistic is a LOT of people aren't warm to Kerry. Note Bush carries MA with 51% of the vote! Does that mean half the Democrats think THEIR candidate is The Lurch?? What it tells us is people lie to pollsters and tell them what they want to hear. It doesn't mean they'll vote that way in November.

42
posted on 08/12/2004 3:18:23 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

Your 40% or so is the Hate Bush folks. Why can't Kerry pick up the other 7 to 10% of the swing voters who decide elections? It goes back to his getting NO BOUNCE at the Convention. At the end of the day, he'll carry his base but that's all the votes he'll get. Something about him just turns people off.

43
posted on 08/12/2004 3:20:58 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

MaxHeadroom: Twenty Minutes Into The Future. Blank Reg: "Remember when we said there was no future? Well, this is it.". ...MaxHeadroom Local Links: ...www.public.iastate.edu/~spires/max.html - 3k - Cached - Similar pages

Nearly 60% of the American people don't want to vote for someone who looks a cadaver. Let's face it, they may not agree with everything Bush does but they can stand seeing him on TV for the next four years. Kerry makes people react negatively. If you think that ain't so, just wait til the debates.

45
posted on 08/12/2004 3:26:51 AM PDT
by goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)

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