Florida Survives 10th Straight Year Without Hurricane Strike; But Streak May Be Over, Officials Warn Residents.

Florida survives 10th straight year without hurricane strike;
But streak may be over, officials warn residents.

By Jorge Milian Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

The experts were right: Hurricane season was a dud.Colorado State University climatologist Phil Klotzbach predicted in April that the six-month Atlantic season would be “pretty boring” and the forecast proved accurate.There were 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes in 2015, all below average numbers. The average season consists of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger), according to the National Hurricane Center.More importantly for residents of the Sunshine State, no hurricanes hit Florida for a record 10th straight year. The previous record was five years. “Not to have a direct hit by a hurricane in the state of Florida for 10 consecutive years is remarkable,” said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. “But I guarantee you that streak is going to end and we have to be prepared for it to end in 2016.”There’s no secret to what kept locals safe from a monster storm this year. The global atmospheric force El Nino was one of the most potent on record, producing strong vertical wind shear that snuffed out potential storms in the Atlantic basin before they could form.El Nino is expected to peak this winter before dropping off during the spring, Feltgen said.”It remains to be seen for 2016 whether El Nino will disappear completely whether we’re at the tail end of it or we’ll be going back to La Nina (which enhances hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin),” Feltgen said. “It’s too early to tell.”One certainty is that Floridians are on an unprecedented lucky streak. In the past 10 years, 64 hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic and not one has struck the state. Even during past stretches of below-normal hurricane seasons, an average of one storm hit the state every two-plus years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”We’ve been fortunate that when these individual hurricanes have been around, the weather pattern has been such that it didn’t come our way or, if they did come our way, they fell apart before reaching land,” Feltgen said.The past three years have each resulted in below-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes. There were 12 hurricanes from 2013-15, matching the total number of hurricanes in 2010.The United States has been experiencing an active hurricane cycle since 1995, experts say. That run has included killer storms like Floyd, Wilma and Katrina. But the reduced number of storms over the past three years has raised questions whether that busy period has ended.Despite the reduced hurricane activity and lack of strikes on Florida, Feltgen said that residents must avoid feeling that “it always hits somewhere else.””When you have a 10-year streak, you get the usual suspects — complacency and denial,” Feltgen said. “On top of that, you have the 2 million people who have moved to Florida since Wilma (2005) hit us. That’s a lot of hurricane inexperience. We have to remain focused because this streak is going to end.”