Congress scoffs at U.S.-Russia deal for Syria cease-fire

Members of Congress would love to see a cease-fire take hold in Syria. They're just not betting any Russian rubles it will.

News of a deal between the U.S. and Moscow to pause the fighting in the blood-soaked Arab state within a week was met with doubt Friday on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers simply don't trust that Russian President Vladimir Putin will halt his military support for the Syrian government or that the Obama administration can make him do so.

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“Nothing in the sad history of the Syrian conflict should lead us to trust Russia or the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad," said," Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, one of President Barack Obama's most hawkish critics, told POLITICO in a statement. "A stronger strategy would involve enhanced U.S. assistance to opposition groups, the establishment of safe zones, and the wholesale rejection of Russian military intervention."

Rep. Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, pointed out that even Secretary of State John Kerry called the agreement mere "words on paper" unless actions on the ground back it up. But Russia doesn't seem willing to stop supporting Assad's "murderous" rule, Royce said.

"If Vladimir Putin was serious about reaching a diplomatic solution, he would stop his disgraceful bombing campaign immediately," the California Republican said Friday.

The skepticism comes from both Republicans and Democrats, and it is being echoed by Syrian opposition leaders and analysts. It underscores the growing feeling that the U.S. is losing leverage in Syria, where the Assad regime, backed by Russian airstrikes, has made significant gains against moderate rebels supported by the United States.

The plans for the cease-fire, which officials are technically calling a "cessation of hostilities," were announced early Friday after intense negotiations in Munich between Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The cease-fire is due to take hold in a week, while humanitarian aid to stricken areas will immediately be increased. But there are some notable caveats to the cease-fire agreement that could unravel it before it takes hold.

For one thing, it requires confirmation from opposition forces, which are hardly unified, and the Assad government. It also doesn't forbid the various parties from battling terrorist groups such as the Islamic State or Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda affiliate. The problem, critics say, is that Russia and Assad often label moderate groups as terrorist outfits or insist opposition fighters tied to moderate forces are actually Islamic State or Nusra jihadists.

Rep. Eliot Engel of New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he hopes the cease-fire takes hold, but indicated he didn't have high hopes. “I support efforts that have a chance of stopping the violence and bloodshed in Syria," he said. "I am strongly skeptical that the Russians and the Assad regime are acting in good faith, but I will certainly keep an open mind."

And Julianne Smith, a former adviser to Vice President Joe Biden who is now with the Center for a New American Security said Putin has given the U.S. plenty of reason to believe Russia's gestures toward a peaceful resolution are hollow.

"Russia's behavior over the last two years and its track record in adhering to international agreements has been extremely discouraging, leaving many of us skeptical" about the latest agreement, Smith said. She added: "We can't forget timing. This is the Munich security conference weekend. Russia likes to use big international forums like this to show the world, particularly Europe, that it is a constructive partner and not an aggressor."

A task force designed to monitor the cease-fire will in theory iron out differences and resolve disputes. Still, there's no sign that Russia and the U.S., which will co-chair the task force, are even close to resolving their own fundamental differences over Syria. Moscow (along with Iran) has stridently backed the Assad regime and deployed military muscle to help it survive. The Obama administration has insisted that the dictator needs to leave power but has been far more modest in the aid it has offered to the various rebel groups. U.S. Special Forces are in Syria, but they are fighting the Islamic State, not Assad.

In the coming week before the cease-fire takes hold, Assad's troops are poised to do tremendous damage, especially in Aleppo. The northern Syrian city has been a stronghold of rebels, and it is coming under siege by Syrian ground forces and Russian airstrikes. If Aleppo falls, it could prove a turning point in the nearly five-year-old war, and it might dissuade Assad from pressing ahead with peace talks with the increasingly weakened opposition.

In an interview with the AFP news agency, Assad on Thursday — before plans for the cease-fire were announced — vowed to take back all of Syria and said that although he supported the peace process he won't stop fighting "terrorism."

"It makes no sense for us to say that we will give up any part" of Syria, said Assad, whose family has ruled the Arab state for decades.

The civil war in Syria began in March 2011 with peaceful protests against the Assad regime but quickly turned violent; at least 250,000 people have died and 11 million Syrians have either fled or been displaced within Syria.

Russia has long stood by Assad, as has Iran, both of which consider the Arab strongman a critical ally. While Kerry on Friday reiterated that "there will not be peace in Syria if Assad is determined to stay there and lead the county," Lavrov dismissed such a notion, saying, "some still have illusions that if we change the regime, everything will be fine."

A broader peace process designed to resolve the political question has been hampered by this fundamental disagreement, and a round of talks earlier this month failed as Aleppo came under fire. New talks are set for Feb. 25, but Syrian opposition leaders were skeptical the cease-fire efforts would help much.

"We Syrians are all terrorists in the eyes of Putin, whose only goal is to keep Assad in power, but while he stays in power any solution is impossible," said Salem Al Meslet, spokesman for Syrian opposition's High Negotiations Committee. "We do not want a military solution, but I don’t think a political one will be possible with Assad. It is now the responsibility of decision makers in the world to pressure Russia and Iran who support the Syrian regime."

Giulia Paravicini, a reporter with POLITICO Europe, contributed to this story.