Commercially produced arabica is grown from “very limited genetic stock,” meaning plants have little flexibility in coping with climate change and new threats from pests and diseases…Altered weather conditions are likely to have “a negative influence” on coffee output in Ethiopia, Africa’s largest grower.

The Royal Botanic Gardens study used bioclimatic modeling to predict the present and future distribution of indigenous Arabica. Researchers modeled for three emission scenarios (high medium, low) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). Modeling showed a “profoundly negative influence” on indigenous Arabica with the most favorable outcomes ranging from 38% to 65% reductions in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities for Arabica. Worst case scenarios predicted from 90% to almost 100% reductions by 2080.

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