November 13, 2017

Poll: Keller leads as ABQ mayoral runoff nears

A poll just days ahead of Albuquerque’s mayoral runoff election shows Tim Keller has a sizeable lead—and is above the 50 percent mark.

The poll, conducted by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, shows Keller, the current State Auditor, leads City Councilor Dan Lewis 53 percent to 34 percent among likely voters. The run-off election will take place Tuesday after no candidate received 50 percent of the vote in the first round of voting in October. In that eight-way race, Keller received just under 40 percent of the vote, and Lewis, just under 23 percent.

The poll shows that 13 percent of likely voters are still undecided.

While the race is nonpartisan, Keller is a Democrat and Lewis is a Republican. The poll found that Keller received the support of 81 percent of Democrats to Lewis’ 10 percent, while Lewis received the support of just 68 percent of Republicans to Keller’s 18 percent. Keller also leads among independent voters, 45 percent to 31 percent.

There is also a city council runoff election in District 5. That is the district currently represented by Lewis.

The winner on Tuesday will take over for Mayor Richard Berry on Dec. 1. Berry, a former Republican state representative, won two terms and opted to not run for a third term this year.

The poll of 618 likely voters took place between Nov. 7 and 9, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted by telephone and polled an equal number of cellphones and landlines.

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State Rep. Bobby Gonzales shook his head from side to side after listening to all the suggestions about how to meet a judge's order to provide more resources to New Mexico children who, in the court's view, are not receiving a good public education. "About 15 different ideas," the Democrat from Taos said following a hearing on the topic last week in the House Appropriations and Finance Committee.

There’s no doubt the Albuquerque mayoral election stole headlines at NM Political Report this year. The list of candidates was long and at least one candidate got a significant head start raising money.

A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor.

The recent Albuquerque and Las Cruces municipal elections, along with other races nationwide, could signal a warning for Republicans in the 2018 elections. The pendulum looks to be swinging from Republican gains during the Barack Obama years to Democratic gains in response to Donald Trump, according to Brian Sanderoff, the president of the Albuquerque-based Research & Polling, Inc.
“I think the political mood right now benefits Democrats,” he said.

From Albuquerque to New York City, pollsters are watching New Mexico. And, as part of the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives, both national parties are pouring money into television ads for their candidates.

Leonard Waites was surprised. The executive director of the state Martin Luther King Jr. Commission had just learned from a reporter that Mayor Tim Keller had hired former U.S. Attorney and defeated congressional candidate Damon Martinez as a senior policy adviser for the Albuquerque Police Department.

State Rep. Bobby Gonzales shook his head from side to side after listening to all the suggestions about how to meet a judge's order to provide more resources to New Mexico children who, in the court's view, are not receiving a good public education.

Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The former founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew was also a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.
Matthew has appeared as a panelist for the Society of Professional Journalists’ New Mexico Chapter’s panel on covering New Mexico politics and the legislature.
A native New Mexican from Rio Rancho, Matthew’s family has been in New Mexico since the 1600s.