Friday, 22 September 2017

Reception to Florence

The kindness of Strangers' {bar}

"Hello Prime Minister. Thank you for seeing me. I realise you are very busy. What with the press and the European Union and such. I've just been with the 1922...

They are all fine. Thank you for asking. ...How was the speech received there? Well, it was looked upon very positively....by some...I'm sure...Though they may not have expressed their admiration for walking the tricky Brexit tightrope in so many words.

No, not applause...nothing like that..You know how they are..Very reserved..Unlikely to show ..erm...emotional expression.Well...I'm sure you did as you thought best. And I'm sure your support from everyone is just where it was...the day after the election.Oh I wouldn't say hostile, Prime Minister. That would indicate an undercurrent of anger. There was none of that! Heavens, no. Maybe the odd person asked if you were perhaps standing in front of a white screen or a white flag? There were a few voices murmuring about your own, actual delivery of the speech..In what way?..

Well...I did hear mention of it being delivered a bit in the style of Hirohito. "Brexit has developed not necessarily to Britain's advantage." That sort of thing..

And one or two suggested perhaps a better venue might have been a 19th century railway wagon.

In the Compiègne forest.

Er...Quite correct PM, that is a military reference...as were the ones about Yorktown and Cornwallis. 2nd Afghan war. Suez '56. ...I did hear an amusing one about the Hundred years war..Someone said that's what you have signed up to..With your 'period of implementation' unconditional offer.Yes that is another historical reference. A very long conflict. Us and the French.

Undeniably, they are a bit keen on their history. The 1922. Its kind of in the title. You studied geography, if memory serves? A fascinating subject I'm sure..Actually there was a geographic-historic point I overheard. I can't quite remember it all... but Senlac Hill got a mention. And there were some more modern comparisons. Roy Hodgson. England vs Iceland, for one.Oh, now Prime Minister. Don't look so downhearted. I'm sure the Europeans will recognise the difficulties you face. The complexities involved. And the chaps weren't out for blood. Really, they were very understanding. And they took it far better than the other day when you said you were going to stay on for ten more years.They just wished there had been a bit more Churchill at Dunkirk and a bit less Percival at Singapore to it. You know? Erm..No PM. I meant nothing to do with temperate climates. Though it was a bit cool..the speech, I mean..Not the ...look...let's just leave the history-geography to one side, shall we? Now the 1922, asked me to pop along to see you. Just to float an idea. As you know, conference is 1st October. And we all want a really rousing one after the erm..the...erm..abatement of our majority in June.

So, we were considering ways of ensuring you receive a really, really spectacular standing ovation. Something you could have forever as a personal achievement. Something you could say to really make the conference come together. To reunite the party. Something to please both Brexiteers and Remainers.That would be something to be proud of, wouldn't it, Prime Minister?

Well..I'll tell you..You see we thought, if the EU negotiators respond as we expect them to. To that ...erm..that ...interesting...speech you gave today, then we should have a response of our own.Of course the choice would be up to you. The party is in no way favouring one option over another.You could say "ill Health." or, "Spending More Time With Phillip."

Just so long as you are gon...erm....you announce the decision during the conference. The handover details will all be worked out by then. Stay on as a caretaker until, say, November? Give us time to sort the vacancy. Quash the civil war.Pardon, Prime Minister?.. Alas, it was so Prime Minister. Unanimous.

And you know, this really would be for the best. For you. For the party. For the country!

Very difficult times. And who really needs all that abuse? All that criticism? You don't really want to read what George Osborne says about you every day, do you? Who needs it? Its a rotten job.

You try your very best, and what thanks do you get? None at all. Just pages and pages in the Guardian about how you don't care about anyone, and the BBC complaining about your trouser suits.And of course, once you are free from the chains of office, you can make a fortune on the diner circuit. Even old Brown is making as much Wayne Rooney for his self-promoting nonsense.

And you'd be a Grandee.

Held in utmost regard. Instead of, as now, someone who is thought of as just a ...erm..I mean..higher regard! Held in higher regard as a Grandee. Just think, Theresa. No more campaigning. No more debates. No interviews. No fractious cabinet meetings. No more DUP demands. No more EU demands. No more worrying about tomorrows headlines. Not having to mix with people. And, thankfully for us all, no more speeches.Far, far better to go now. At YOUR choosing. To a tumultuous applause. Not just from the party. But from the nation! ..........Much better to leave right now. With dignity. With grandeur and decorum. ......

Rather than with the knives in the back and front that must surely follow..... ...If you choose the other path.....Its for the best, Mrs May. It really is.....No..No need for you to do that.

I have an approved resignation speech from the committee, right here in my jacket pocket. Its even got a suitable choice of outfit and how long the applause will last. Its scripted beside each paragraph. As I said. Much better this way. Much..much better.

17 comments:

I'm getting Cameron flashbacks where I performed mental gymnastics to conjure up a belief that he must have thought it through and the genius will be apparent later. However, when later came, it turned out to be the glaring imbecility it obviously was. Ho hum....

Yeah - she should do the decent and call it a day but she won't, natch.

Great insight. Hope you'll be commenting from the floor in a week or so's time. I'll be in the bar sampling views and other things.

Going to be an interesting weekend on the political shows. See who breaks cover first. Probably Boris but he hasn't the stamina to make it to the finishing line. Likely Hammond has it sewn up having bought off Fox with some bauble.

The failure to execute Article 50 for months and months.The inclusion of Hammond and Rudd in leading cabinet positions.The unneeded election and the deliberately bad campaign designed to try and lose the majority.The failure to ever paint a proper positive picture of Brexit Britain.The failure to begin to prepare a plan for no deal.Finally today’s speech and the announcement of another unrequired substantial delay to the process.

When you look at the evidence, this PM has clearly been trying to undermine Brexit throughout the entire process."

And...

"I must be more naive than most – but I note a number of my predictions have been realized. So, for what it’s worth, here is my ‘take’ on the PM’s speech. She has sketched out, in measured, reasonable terms how we see our exit from the EU coming into reality, She has balanced these amicable terms, in the statesmanlike way one would expect of a major NATO ally, with a firm commitment to leave the EU by 2019, and has repeated that ‘no deal’ is still the fall-back position. At the same time, she has acknowledged that a limited transition period to facilitate trade might be helpful to both parties. Now for the response: if the EU does not respond in kind, the whole world is watching, and Mrs May will be vindicated. Let’s not pre-judge the issue."

I'm tending towards the latter. There seems to be no useful purpose in tending towards the former - no point in being a pessimist, as Churchill would say.

2. See what the EU leaders say, if (as I think likely) they stonewall, at least we are prepared. If they don't, all well and good.

3. I keep hearing from the EU (as mediated by the BBC) that we need to sort citizens rights, financial commitments and Ireland. I presume we have put forward proposals on all these and they are stiffing them. It's right that negotiations should be private, but if they're digging in their heels she'll have to go public some time.

4. The idea that the EU won't be stupid - see the treatment of Greece. I'm sure some European ideologues/imperialists see this as a historic opportunity to move London's financial services. Very little upside for them in the UK doing well post-Brexit.

5. Therefore we must hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Sacking May (and I'm no great fan) probably means GE and Corbyn. Corbyn, so firm initially on respecting the vote, seems to have been got at by the same people who appear have turned Trump from an isolationist America-firster to a more-of-the-same Iran-then-Ukraine McCain/Clinton hybrid. If Trumps steel testes melted in the heat, what hope for Corbyn's?

One other thought - if she succeeds in getting us out for good, then her place in history is secure, with all her failings. If she blows it (i.e. we end up staying in) - well, we won't be writing the history books anyway, but she'll be a footnote for the left and and a hate figure for the rest of us. If we leave, I think the Tory Party will stay intact, if we stay in it's a "recrimination generation".

Plus it'll be time for spitting on hands and hoisting the black flag...

EK2 and Anon do have the measure. Very close to the reality of the situation.The hard leavers want too much, too soon.Both Blair and Cameron were fully at ease with half-truths. promises. Lite scraps to keep everyone mostly on board.

May, with just a few tweaks, could have moved a larger number of hard Brexiteers to her cautious brexit.

But she just can't do it.

For me, I'd have accepted 90% of her compromises, IF she had red lined one area. To show she was negotiating, not capitulating. I'd have done EU jurisdiction over EU-UK citizens. I'd have red lined it by pointing out US, Australians, Canadians etc, citizens in the UK are subject only to UK laws.

She points she has made the offer on citizenship Far in excess of anything the EU has offered. She could have said she would do it, providing UK citizens in the EU, are ONLY subject to UK laws. Making the point that the entire idea is nonsense.

That strong defence would mean if the EU really, really wants some guarantees on EU citizens rights, THEY would now have to be making offers.

But she didn't.And so, the back foot, weak hand, nervous poker playing continues.

A pair of sevens. She's going to need a lot of luck or a lot of skill to do much with that.

"We really must not waste time, after all this long Debate, upon the difference between the positions reached at Berchtesgaden, at Godesberg and at Munich. They can be very simply epitomised, if the House will permit me to vary the metaphor. £1 was demanded at the pistol's point. When it was given, £2 were demanded at the pistol's point. Finally, the dictator consented to take £1 17s. 6d. and the rest in promises of good will for the future... there never can be any absolute certainty that there will be a fight if one side is determined that it will give way completely"

Corbyn is pushing back against the Blairites on the single market - the boy's not playing a bad game. He recognises that 1945-style socialism ain't allowed by the EU.

Personally, I'd take 1945 socialism for a 1945 immigration policy, and I'd crawl on barbed wire for 1945 demographics. But we are where we are, and the trouble with JC is that the PLP is mostly bought and paid for (not that the Tories are very much better, but small differences make a big difference).

If JC got in I could see him simply being outvoted on leaving, and the EU conservatives wouldn't find it hard to persuade themselves that wrecking JC was a more patriotic act than leaving the EU.

Once we are properly out we can elect the SWP or the BNP for all I care, cos we can vote them out again. But May's 2-year extension leaves her plenty of time for "events, dear boy, events" to intervene. On reflection we should be out by 2019 as Article 50 states. I can see TM lasting til 2019, but 2021 is most unlikely unless her luck changes - or something falls on her head and makes her into a determined national leader.