Lewis on top, Max ahead of Dan… & Kimi only 5th?!

Barcelona test have been started and finished. The world has seen the new equipment with which our heroes have to complete the season. A recap the “El Jefe” way.

We have seen some surprises, some good, some bad. Good were the Ferrari’s. After some bad whispers, I thought this year was going to another disaster. Well, disaster in a relative way. They have been left hand side of the table, but HQ has been pumping so much money into Maranello that they ought to be able to win races. 2016 brought none.

Bad: the McLaren vs (!) Honda battle does not seem to come to an end. Critiques are open and loud. Even Alonso is pushing McLaren into talks with Mercedes to replace to Honda power. Controversy is spreading as Honda’s Yusuke Hasagewa feel obliged to comment that McLaren will stay with Honda for a 100%.

Somehow it came as a surprise that Renault isn’t up to par with the power. Probably my wishful thinking was the cause.

So what does the rest of the world think? Everybody has his or her own opinion, and how to make that objective? After long thinking (and a chug) I wanted to present you how the betting world thinks about the current situation. They seem to have found a way to make an objective estimate.. Below you will find the odds for bets you can place. I am comparing 2 sites. The odds are not 100% comparable, since 1 bets firmly on whether a driver becomes world champion, and another bets for world champion, but also returns an amount if the driver just misses the top-spot and makes it to second or third place.

I am NOT a betting person. I do NOT want to get you started on betting, the only thing I want to do is make some objective estimate of where the people who like F1, think how the season will end.

Without further ado:

2017 Driver championship

Lewis Hamilton

1.1

2.1

Sebastian Vettel

3.3

4.0

Valtteri Bottas

5.5

6.5

Max Verstappen

8.0

8.0

Kimi Raikkonen

8.0

9.0

Daniel Ricciardo

9.0

9.0

Felipe Massa

200.0

81.0

Fernando Alonso

300.0

201.0

Lance Stroll

750.0

251.0

Carlos Sainz

1000.0

501.0

Stoffel Vandoorne

1000.0

751.0

Nico Hulkenberg

1000.0

1001.0

Esteban Ocon

1500.0

1001.0

Daniil Kvyat

1500.0

1001.0

Kevin Magnussen

1500.0

1001.0

Sergio Perez

1500.0

1001.0

Romain Grosjean

1500.0

1001.0

Jolyon Palmer

1500.0

1001.0

Marcus Ericsson

3000.0

2001.0

Pascal Wehrlein

3000.0

2001.0

I sorted the drivers on the odds of column 1 (betting office 1: not naming names) What might be not surprise is that both have Mercedes and Ferrari on top, directly followed by the Red Bulls. They expect Vettel to be stronger than Bottas in the second Mercedes. Räikkönnen behind Bottas. Surprisingly that Verstappen is placed before Ricciardo, while the latter has way more experience and a couple of more wins to his name. Massa before Alonso: the McLaren can’t keep up with the Williams. Stroll then Sainz (!) before Vandoorne: Sainz is estimated as very strong.

Then the melee starts, but stiff at the end we find the Saubers.

For the Constructor’s World Championship:

Mercedes

0.44

1.45

Ferrari

3.00

4.00

Red Bull

5.50

6.00

Williams

150.00

101.00

McLaren

250.00

201.00

Renault

300.00

251.00

Force India

750.00

501.00

Haas

1500.00

1001.00

Toro Rosso

1500.00

1001.00

Sauber

4000.00

2001.00

Not too many surprises here: Mercedes is estimated (by large) to become the world’s best constructor. Renault behind the McLaren: well, maybe I made a mistake of taking 2 English betting companies..

So how will the points be split is Australia?

Lewis Hamilton

1.2

2.2

Sebastian Vettel

3.0

3.5

Valtteri Bottas

5.5

7.0

Kimi Raikkonen

6.5

7.0

Max Verstappen

10.0

11.0

Daniel Ricciardo

10.0

11.0

Felipe Massa

80.0

67.0

Fernando Alonso

300.0

251.0

Lance Stroll

300.0

301.0

Sergio Perez

300.0

301.0

Which is almost the same as the odds on the world championship with the exception of Perez on place 10.

March 26: when the flag drops, all the bullshit stops! We will find out whether Australia changes things.