Time to lay your bets. Commit in the comments to who wins, what the Electoral votes and the Popular votes will be, and (if you like) the Senate and House outcome (for all and/or for your state).
You can use the NYT* map to predict the Electoral Votes.

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96 Responses to Lay your bets!

I hope, hope, hope that Romney wins, but I’m afraid that the O machine will do what it takes, if you know what I mean. We’ll be told that Obama won becase he looked so fetching in that bomber jacket touring the Hurricane Sandy aftermath.

Too many powerful people have invested in Obama so he will squeak out a win even if he doesn’t. The polls are tied up and that makes it perfect for the Chicago Combine to work its cheating magic. O will pull it out. Romney won’t contest it and will give a gracious concession speech and Obama will act like the A$$ he is and think he was just crowned king for life.
I am going to hate it and go into a 3 week depression at which point I will go in for a scheduled colonoscopy just to make myself feel better!

I agree with this assessment, but I do think it could be slightly higher for the two more popular third party candidates, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. I think Stein could pull out 2% and Johnson 3-5%. If they mostly come from Obama’s column, which they will, that will leave him closer to 42%.

I don’t know — Stein didn’t make it on every ballot in all 50 states so while I can see her getting that much in a particular state (say CA or even WI — I’ve heard she’s doing well in Madison) can she really get so much of the vote in those state to give her 2% of the NATIONAL vote? No way.

I think Stein is going to do a lot “better” in safe blue states than people think she will (such as MA & CA).

Johnson will do better than Stein overall because (1) he’s on all 50 ballots and (2) he has gotten more attention from the MSM in an attempt to help Obama — but I don’t know if that happens because most of the people going for Johnson are the Paulbots & they would have voted for Obama before Romney.

I agree with this plan. There is no reason Colorado people have to stay up all night to count ballots. In Washington we count all ballots with an election day post mark no matter when they come in. If the east coast media find this inconvenient we don’t care. In fact we consider their dislike a good reason to stick with our plan.

Seriously. I had a hard time answering it, because I think Romney will win by a smallish vote margin, but will get an electoral landslide. Remember, Reagan only got 51% of the vote, but 489 ECVs. In my opinion, the national margin will likely be no greater than 4 points, but the ECVs will be close to or will just break 300.

I realize this conflicts with what I just said in response to Angie, and honestly I can’t explain it. One of these scenarios is likely to come true and I haven’t yet figured it out. The only thing I’m sure of is that Romney has the momentum, and history is at his back.

There was an actual viable 3rd party candidate (in addition to the usual other 3rd party candidates) — John Anderson — who ran in 1980 who got almost 7% of the vote that year.
I don’t think Johnson is going to be an Anderson.

I voted for Romney by a small margin, but if given better choices, eeyore that I am, I’d vote for a tie (the House then picks the Preezy, and the Senate, the vice-Preezy). Lol. President Romney and VP Biden. That would be hilarious. Lol

Remember, don’t let the nostalgia for Reagan that occurred after the fact fool you. In 1980 people didn’t know it was going to be a landslide & the MSM not only *hated* Reagan with a passion (he was going to starve old people & start WW3) they also talked about how long gas lines, high inflation & high unemployment was “the new normal.”

I don’t have time to figure out the EC votes but I bet Romney wins by enough EC votes to shut down the attempts by the Obots to call the election rigged by racists. I was listening to NPR again at work and they have been talking about how Republicans are keeping minorities from voting in Florida and Ohio as we speak and how there are already many court cases the Democrats are being forced to bring and there will be more by the end of election day. To hear them it sounds like our country is incapable of carrying out an election.

He was scarily accurate with his EV prediction in 2008. But note he’s saying “at least” 278 — that means it is worst case scenario.

Michael Barone, OTOH, has predicted 315 for Romney — and he’s a very cautious man (he is also a very well respected precinct analyst with a long history in politics). For example, in 2008 he refused to make an EV prediction, only saying it was “likely” that Obama would win.

We’ve also got George Will — who never worked national campaigns like Rove or Barone but who is a cautious man not known to go out on a limb, and who, in fact said in January that there was “no way” to beat Obama so the GOP should just concentrate on Congressional races — saying on MTP Sunday that he picks Romney in a landslide of 320 EVs!

“While examining some possible Electoral College scenarios with NBC News White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell wondered why President Barack Obama’s campaign would send former President Bill Clinton to Philadelphia if they were confident the Keystone State was unlikely to flip to Mitt Romney on Tuesday. “If Pennsylvania is in play, then this is all over for the president,” Mitchell said. ”

I think Mr. Romney will win and I think that he will take Florida no problem. If the President was here yesterday in very blue Broward County, trying to get people energized, he is in trouble.

I posted this in the last thread at the bottom. It bugged me. I don’t know if I am being a little off or seeing too much into this. Here is what I wrote:

“CAIR has requested the Broward County Florida School Board to provide two days off for public school students due to Islamic holy days. Christmas vacation is winter break and Easter vacation is spring break. Some Jewish holy days are teacher work days, but there is no religious holy day vacation days or even recognition. The muslim students can take these two days off without affecting their absences but still want official holy days off in the Broward County Public Schools calendar. Am I missing something here?”

Obama is only going to very blue areas — yesterday Broward County & Boulder, CO. Today he went to Madison, WI (with Springsteen opening) and only 15,000 came (they expected 30,000). Althouse has the story from her husband (who attended) — even parking was easy:

Visiting Broward County to me only evidences that he does not seriously think he could win Florida. If he thought he could win Florida, he would be visiting the I-4 area. Unfortunately, for the President Broward County cannot save him. 29 EVs to Mr. Romney.

I’m telling you — Noonan & Will, who *always* go with the conventional wisdom.
Plus Barone — who I do think has principles but who is always cautious nonetheless.
It means something.
Now, if David Brooks writes about the beautiful knot of Romney’s tie then we can pop the champagne now.

I’m with angienc, DandyTiger, bluestate, and Lola-at-Large (sans the 40 inch screen) on this FOX, then MSNBO. And if I can figure out a way to move mysmaller teevee into the same room as the larger, I’ll watch them simultaneously as well.

I’ve been thinking about this and wondered if we could talk FOX into covering the MSNBO collapse after Romney is declared the winner. Because the vaporization of a cable news network is pretty major. (heh)

Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
{snip}
Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

You know, I still remember seeing Donna during the opening of the DNC in ’08. She was giving a tour of the hall and she was going on about how the party had unified now and we were all supposedly healed after the brutal primary. She and the CNN reporter then reached a bin of candidates banners for the delegates to use. She reached in, pulled out one that had Hillary’s name on it, and with an audible “ugh” she shoved it forcefully back into the bin and selected an Obama banner. Pretty much sums up the Obama’s brand of togetherness!

I think that like everything else about the Obama campaign their “superior ground game” is a myth. They didn’t beat Hillary in the primary states — they beat her in the caucus states where they bussed in supporters. As for the GE, they had the “cause” (i.e., any Dem was going to win because of Bush fatigue) plus the MSM carrying water & they still had to outspend McCain 3 to 1 to do it. They’ve still got the MSM but they aren’t outspending Romney *now.* And as you say, Romney’s got the “cause” this time.

Because among recent national polls, Obama is averaging about 48%, I’ll go with the Carvelle rule and say that’s all he gets. I’ll leave 1% to random and say it’s 51% to 48% Romney popular vote win. For EC, I’ll go with 291 Romney, 247 Obama.

For those EC numbers, I gave Obama: NV, IA, MN, and even OH. I figured OH for Obama even though Romney should win it, because I think the Obama team have their thumb on the scale. Then I gave Romney: WI, NH, VA, FL, CO, and PA. Romney wins even without PA, but I think he’s going to get it anyway.

I wish MA was a toss up, but I don’t think this will be a repeat of 1980. I do think Brown has a chance of keeping the senate seat, which I didn’t think a week ago. When I found out this morning elliesdad, lifetime Democrat who didn’t leave the party in 2008, just tossed several colorful epithets their way, is voting for Brown and saw he’s pulled at least even again, hope sprung.

Hmmm. Now why the hell would the Obama campaign need 154 MORE volunteers for tomorrow for our dinky little town? (the latest email from OFA) Seriously- there are not even 20,000 people in the “city” next to us where the D headquarters for the county is located.
154? For what?
They won’t win but one precinct- the one that contains the public housing and the college. And 154 more people won’t change that. Even if they could find anyone around here willing to be seen supporting that fraud.

I can’t make any predictions. I’m superstitious about this kind of thing. It’s enough that I contributed to the Romney/Ryan campaign. that was taking a huge risk for me as the last 2 candidates I contributed to both lost.

I’m hoping Romney wins and I hope Carville was wrong and Rove was right.

I’m wondering if the popular vote will be huge for Romney. I think a lot or voters who normally don’t vote, (like me) and many in states that are a sure thing for both sides went to the polls or will go tomorrow. That is even in states where it wouldn’t make a difference, there is this desire to let yourself be heard!

And for the record, I think one can vote for revenge AND love of country!