Paul says there are a handful of states that are evenly divided and Romney will have to win most of them, adding the GOP will have to examine its electoral map strategy in future races.

“It’s tougher and tougher for Republicans because we don’t compete very well in the west coast (and) we don’t compete very well New England. Once you give up all those votes then you got to win pretty much the rest of the country,” he says. “And that’s one of the messages I’ve had to the national Republican Party. You know what? Those areas where you’re not competing maybe a libertarian Republican would do better in California or New York state.”

The overall electoral math remains focused on big toss-up prizes like Ohio and Florida. In both places the President has held leads, as he does in our newest polls, but they’re certainly not large enough to overcome any variations in turnout or shifts in allegiance from softer supporters as we go forward. Smaller toss-ups like Colorado and Nevada out west, and Iowa and New Hampshire, continue to play pivotal roles.

A lot of data out this summer – including our own polling – suggest the president is ahead in Pennsylvania. This may not surprise, as the state’s Democratic-leaning history would suggest that so long as Mr. Obama is leading (or close to even) nationally – as he is – Pennsylvania would be among those more likely to stay in his camp.

Despite those figures, the president has been unable to run away with the election either and observers predict a small margin will decide the outcome.

In Virginia, former Congressman Virgil Goode has secured a spot on the ballot as a Constitution Party candidate. According to recent polling data, Goode is carrying 9 percent of the vote, which would be enough to spoil Romney’s chances in the state.

Another long-shot candidate is Libertarian Gary Johnson, a former two-term governor of New Mexico who is polling at 5.3 percent in that state.

Paul says those campaigns could affect the presidential contest, but that Romney has to do a better job of reaching out to third party voters.

“I think the only way to keep those voters in the party is if you’re the nominee of the party you need to appeal to those people who are either libertarian or Constitutional conservatives,” he says. “You need to say: stay in the party, because I am going to be sincere about balancing the budget and cutting some spending.”