Gerson: Romney endures uphill challenge

The presidential race has been stable for months, but not in a way favorable to Mitt Romney. On his best days, Romney is even with President Obama. On his worst, Romney is a few points behind.

This dynamic has not been changed through advertising. More money has been spent on TV ads in the general election so far this year than during the entire 2008 presidential election. More money was spent in July on ads in Charlotte, Orlando and Columbus than was spent in those markets in October of 2008. But opinion seems settled and difficult to budge.

The selection of Paul Ryan did not change the structure of the race. What initially seemed like an ideological choice — previewing a shift in campaign strategy and content — now seems like a more personal decision. Romney is comfortable with Ryan and an improved candidate in his presence. But Romney’s message is untouched by his running mate’s revolutionary fiscal realism. Romney chose Ryan, not Ryanism.

Romney’s convention speech did not change the unfavorable stability of the campaign. Romney softened his image through biography; he did not broaden his appeal with unexpected outreach. There were no innovative policy initiatives directed toward Hispanics or suburban women. The speech was humanizing but ideologically uncreative.

With less than two months until the election, Romney is left with dwindling opportunities to reshape the dynamic of the race. Which places extraordinary pressure on him in the presidential debates that commence on Oct. 3. He was an able debater during the Republican primaries. Obama is a weaker debater than his reputation — often professorial and elliptical. But Romney has the harder task. He must do more than hold his own. He will need to shake and shift public attitudes. And it is not easy to be aggressive during a debate without appearing overbearing or desperate.

This analysis requires an admission. Obama’s political strategy has generally worked. The president could not run on his economic performance. So he has turned the race into an ideological contest that he has a better chance of winning. His convention speech — equally light on creative policy — emphasized the choice between Democratic community and Republican selfishness. The Democratic convention (with the exception of Bill Clinton’s throwback moderation) was designed to energize social liberals and economic populists while trying to destroy Romney as a viable alternative.

This approach to politics is not pretty. If it succeeds, we will see a lot more early, scorched-earth negative attacks and purposeful ideological polarization in American campaigns. Quite a legacy for Obama to leave.

But Romney has made his contribution to the success of Obama’s strategy. The Democratic convention also included an aggressive outreach to Hispanic voters — enabled by Romney’s alienation of this group during the Republican primaries. The policy of “self-deportation” has pushed a community heavy with social conservatives and entrepreneurs toward the party of Sandra Fluke and Elizabeth Warren. Quite a legacy for Romney to leave.

While Obama’s approach is currently succeeding, it has not yet succeeded. A base strategy requires a party’s base to turn out on Election Day. For Obama, Latinos, single women and younger voters must become likely voters. And here the Obama campaign should be concerned. Levels of enthusiasm in the Obama coalition are lower than four years ago. Just before the 2008 election, for example, 78 percent of voters 18-29 expressed a firm intention to vote. Now that figure is 58 percent. Democrats are engaged in a serious get-out-the-vote effort. But in politics, as in courtship, organization is usually a poor substitute for passion.

And it is also possible bad economic news will be a sodden blanket to weigh down Obama’s support among all groups. Job growth is historically weak. At the August pace of job creation, according to Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the Manhattan Institute, America will reach 6 percent unemployment in 32 years. Under normal circumstances, this would recommend a presidential pivot to an aggressive job creation agenda. But Obama’s convention speech was pivotless. He offered a stay-the-course message in a faltering economy. These objective conditions may place an upward limit on Obama’s support — a ceiling somewhere lower than 50 percent of the vote.

This remains a close presidential contest, in which Obama has significant vulnerabilities. But Romney does not appear to have a route to victory that allows him to coast. If he plays not to lose, he seems likely to lose.

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It's called "serving the will of the people." responding to the wishes of their constituency is what government officials are hired to do, otherwise we would not be a representative democracy. And yes, even the will of the minorities count.

We are all familiar with a Herd of cows, A Flock of chickens, A School of fish And a Gaggle of geese.

A Pride of lions, A Murder of crows

An Exaltation of doves And, presumably because they look so wise: A Parliament of owls.

Now consider a group of Baboons. Baboons are the loudest, most dangerous, most obnoxious, most viciously aggressive and least intelligent of all primates. And what is the proper collective noun for a group of baboons? Believe it or not... A Congress!

A CONGRESS OF BABOONS! That pretty much explains the things that come out of Washington!

Question with boldness even the existence of a god; because if there be one he must approve of the homage of reason more than that of blindfolded fear. Thomas Jefferson in a letter to Peter Carr, August 10, 1787

thing Henry Finkel said during the GOP convention. If the GOP doesn't find a a way to enlarge its tent re minorities, they will cease to be a major factor in the long run. Angry white people and Tea Baggers won't carry the day for the GOP.

As of last week, Obama had 237 firm electoral votes to Romney's 206. Obama has 5 states leaning towards him that total 55 votes. Romney has 4 states leaning towards him with 47 votes. You can do the math and see that Obama would only need 33 votes from his 55 leaning total to win while Romney would need all his leaning states plus 17 more from the undecided states that total 95 votes.

On which candidate the majority/minority thinks will give them the most or not enforce the laws on immigration. This may be a turning point on what this country will become moving forward. It is difficult when the choice seems to be the far right or the far left or which will be more inclined to work together and the answer is neither.

ALL men are created equal. They should not be separated into sex, skin color, etc. ALL people have the same rights under our constitution. ALL people have the same opportunities in our country unless something catastrophic happens to them. I abhor pandering by both parties. We all have need of food, clothing, and shelter. We all bleed the same, love, have dreams.... Nobody has special rights (or should not). The best thing government can do is provide a safe and economically sound atmosphere and get the heck out of the way. Constituencies should be merely geographical, NOT groups of certain skin colors and other labels that cause division among the citizens. Grouping people into little boxes creates nothing but victims and discord.

henry, love..... you had better put your glasses on and take another look at the GOP. The old guard already is losing its grip if it hasn't already, and I pray the Democratic Party I left in the 80s comes to its senses.

there are a lot more angry and disgruntled lefties out there, than righties.

There are PLENTY of right repubs left to have an influence on an election. If the left get 4 more years, we may have a mass "outing" from the left anyways. There are also plenty of folks other than the elderly and white, that are conservatives in this country.

Seems like Romney is dropping the hyphenated American label from folk and actually viewing us all as equals. That is a policy of inclusion.

Obama is doing his very best to segregate the masses into groups and pitting us against each other. That is a policy of division.

I think Romney has the right idea, unless we come together and work as a nation to solve our problems, we will continue down the path to becoming another Greece.

By dividing us and making us think we are just all members of some special interest group, Obama is weakening our Nation. We must shed the millstone around our necks, or we will sink into an abyss of misery and poverty. One in six of us already live in poverty. We need to make a change at the top and get new leadership. President Obama just doesn't have the skills necessary to lead us out of the recession.