Sales tax revenues *only* down 8.8 percent

Following months of double-digit dips in state sales tax collections, the comptroller’s chief revenue estimator seemed pleased to give this preliminary figure to House budget-writers today:

Preliminary figure show February’s collections were down 8.8 percent compared to the same month the prevous year.

“It’s certainly still down from last year. However, it’s down less than 10 percent,” said John Heleman. He said one month “certainly doesn’t make a trend” but added, “It’s encouraging to see we’re now beginning to move in the right direction. ”

House Appropriations Committee members pressed Heleman for detailed information on how the comptroller’s revenue projections are stacking up to performance.

For example, September-January sales tax collections (the fiscal year so far) were down 13.1 percent.

Under questioning from Rep. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston, Helleman said the comptroller had expected collections to be lagging about 10 percent at this point, then pick up steam in the latter part of the year.

He and other lawmakers, who must deal with the expected huge shortfall, asked for the comparison of projections to actual revenue to help them make decisions.

The Legislative Budget Board’s John O’Brien, meanwhile, confirmed for lawmakers that they will face a shortfall of at least $11 billion in the next two-year budget period, more than the $8.2 billion that’s expected to be in the rainy-day fund. He cautioned that’s a “low estimate” of the shortfall.