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Electric vehicles no panacea for B.C. to meet its climate change goals

If electric vehicle adoption in Metro Vancouver rose to more than 40 per cent of new car sales, by 2050 those cars would consume the equivalent of half the output from BC Hydro’s Site C dam while curbing tax revenues for TransLink, according to a new report. And the changeover wouldn’t deliver the big decrease in greenhouse gas emissions that climate change experts are hoping for in order to meet British Columbia’s emission reduction targets, argues the report’s author, Jim Johnson.

An electric car is plugged into a charging station at Vancity’s office in Vancouver. Electric vehicles accounted for 1,200 of the 1.3 million passenger vehicles on Lower Mainland roads in 2014.Jason Payne / Vancouver Sun

If electric vehicle adoption in Metro Vancouver rose to more than 40 per cent of new car sales, by 2050 those cars would consume the equivalent of half the output from BC Hydro’s Site C dam while curbing tax revenues for TransLink, according to a new report.

And the changeover wouldn’t deliver the big decrease in greenhouse gas emissions that climate change experts are hoping for in order to meet British Columbia’s emission reduction targets, argues the report’s author, Jim Johnson.

Electric vehicles accounted for 1,200 of the 1.3 million passenger vehicles on Lower Mainland roads in 2014, according to ICBC records.

This year, the province brought back its rebate program, which pays a $5,000 subsidy to consumers who buy electric cars and helped to induce 671 sales since it was introduced April 1, according to New Car Dealers Association of B.C. CEO Blair Qualey.

The rate of electric vehicle adoption will have to increase substantially, however, to make a big difference.

“Too often, what I find, is that politicians put out numbers: ‘We’re going to have 20-per-cent declines, 30-per-cent declines (in emissions) by this particular time,’ without actually looking at what are the impacts of that,” said Johnson, principal of the firm Pacific Analytics.

As far as taxes go, Johnson estimates the impact on taxes would, at best, see fuel levies for TransLink hit a ceiling at about 2014 levels by 2040. At worst, based on two scenarios he looked at, tax revenue would shrink by 12 per cent from 2014 levels.

“(People) have to understand if we switch our fuel to electricity, there’s not going to be any money left to go to TransLink or the Ministry of Transportation to fix our roads,” Johnson said. “So there will have to be some change to the tax regime.”

TransLink is already grappling with this possibility, having experienced a sharp decline in fuel consumption and tax revenue in 2011 and 2012, according to its 2014 Base Plan and Outlook report.

And it forecasts a decline in gas-tax revenue from $336 million this year to $328 million by 2023, highlighting “we need to find a new, more sustainable revenue source.”

Johnson released the report Friday, the same day the province’s climate leadership team released its recommendations on what the next steps should be for Premier Christy Clark’s government to keep B.C. on track to meet its goals.

Transportation, which accounts for 37 per cent of B.C.’s emissions, was a big target for its recommendations, which included setting goals to increase sales of zero-emission vehicles to 30 per cent of new sales by 2030 and a goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions to 30 per cent below 2007 levels.

Johnson argues it will be difficult to hit those reductions with the single measure of switching to electric vehicles.

He characterized his study as a projection rather than a forecast, which looks at two scenarios.

One is based on an extrapolation from an existing model he has been working on for a decade based on standard assumptions from the U.S. Energy Information Agency on consumer preferences and behaviour and using B.C. projections for fuel price and income growth.

On that basis, the Pacific Analytics projection would see electric vehicles rise to just nine per cent of new car sales by 2040, and greenhouse gas emissions would increase by three per cent from 2007 levels as the number of vehicles rises with population growth.

The electricity demand under that scenario would be the equivalent of adding a sixth generating unit to BC Hydro’s Revelstoke Dam.

Then Johnson reworked the figures to assume electric vehicles would account for 45 per cent of new sales by 2040. Under that scenario, electricity demand from those vehicles would be one-fifth of Site C’s output, rising to 50 per cent by 2050.

Greenhouse gas reductions by 2040, however, would only be nine per cent lower than 2007 “a far cry from the major reductions” governments are calling for, Johnson argues.

Norway is the world leader on electric vehicle adoption, having achieved 25 per cent of new sales earlier this year, with more than 74,000 on their roads, a study by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions found.

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