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17 January 2016

Bob Blog

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

The current Madden Julian Oscillation has managed to circle the planet in the past six weeks (since early Dec). The MJO Phase may be seen at

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml.

The CA Model shows that the MJO may soon embark on another circumnavigation—If so it is likely to reach the western Pacific again from early February, and we can expect the next cluster of tropical cyclones in our area around mid-February.

Currently the MJO is in the Indian Ocean and indeed there is a tropical Low forming east of Madagascar with two more on its eastern side.

This also shows up in the Meteo France at New Caledonia’s Cyclone probability diagram seen at