Friday, July 31, 2015

August, 2015, represents the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. I’ve already received the first press release from a federal agency boasting about its performance. Be prepared for many more self-aggrandizing articles pertaining to government agencies.

Fact: Meteorologists performed extremely well: The storm and its effects were forecast well in advance. Those forecasts allowed the largest storm-related evacuation in history saving tens of thousands of lives from the flooding.

For those that did not evacuate, truth is that all levels of government performed miserably. As the media asked, over and over, at the time: Where is the cavalry? Why weren't people evacuated as the winds calmed but the waters rose.

Warnings tells the story of what actually went wrong behind the scenes leading to thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Massive sprites and a few meteors captured with a Watec 901H2 Ultimate low light camera from Rapid City, South Dakota on the night of 26 July 2015. Sprites are huge electrical discharges in the upper atmosphere that start about 60 km in altitude and extend both upward to 90 km and downward to 20 km. They occur when a large cloud-to-ground lightning flash takes place in a large storm system below. Typically, a large negative field change caused by a horizontally extensive positive cloud-to-ground flash initiates bipolar/bidirectional electrical breakdown of the rarified air in the upper atmosphere. Positive streamers travel downward and negative streamers travel upward. They can be seen up to 700 km away with a low light camera and good view conditions. The sprites captured in this video ranged between 400 - 700 km (south central Nebraska to northcentral-northeastern Kansas).

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

There is no app associated with the book; the reviewer may mean AccuWeather's (free) app.

Of course, the book also tells the story of conquering the downburst (and the airline crashes it caused) as well as hurricanes. So, if you want a fascinating book for your late summer vacation, just click here.

Monday, July 20, 2015

The radar is the black circle at lower left. It can sense winds blowing toward and away fro the radar. So, the red area is winds away from the radar. The greens are winds blowing toward the radar. The winds at 90° angles appear as nearly calm as the radar can only sense toward and away.

In the Southland mountains, as much as 3-4 inches fell. This rain is highly unusual for mid-July.

The entire rainfall from the tropical storm (7-day totals) is depicted below.

In most areas, the rain was extremely welcome. It did come at some cost, however. There were people injured in a lightning strike, a bridge on Interstate 10 washed out and there were several railroad washouts.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Moisture is moving north with the remains of a Pacific tropical storm with more flash flooding likely this afternoon and tonight. So, I urge Southland readers not to cross flooded areas by foot or by car! Just last night, a pregnant woman and her son were killed doing just that.

Friday, July 17, 2015

A Nickerson, Kansas, family survived the EF-3 tornado unharmed in the safe room photo at right. More on their story, here. If you live in Tornado Alley and do not have a safe room, it is a valuable investment.

You've undoubtedly read the news about the two reports predicting serious global cooling starting in about 1-2 decades.

Here are some words of wisdom from Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr.One area of controversy has to do with the reliability of computer models of the global climate system. Can they accurately predict future climate change?

At this point, the answer is no. Predicting the climate of the next century with precision is impossible. Scientists and the news media must take care to better educate policymakers about the process of science, and in that effort, scientists must also be careful about the words they use. Policymakers must beware those who talk about ``climate predications;'' no one knows how to accurately predict climate.

My advice, stop worrying about climate change. Roger is correct: We don't know how to predict it and we certainly don't know how to change it.

...while I have been in Chicago on business, here is what things looked like from near my home pointed northwest.
Summer tornadoes in Kansas with high cloud bases give many people the opportunity to see tornadoes for themselves from safe distances. So far, no damage other than uprooted trees has been reported.

Tornado watch in effect for northern Illinois and adjacent parts of Iowa and Indiana. Thunderstorms are now developing and generally moving ESE or SE. Please keep an eye on the weather the rest of the evening.

As some of you know, I am giving a presentation to a hospital industry meeting this afternoon in Chicago at 4:15. Kathleen is with me and asked a member of the hotel staff what the tornado warning procedure is. She received this reply,

There's nothing to worry about. The thunderstorms were this morning. It is supposed to be a beautiful evening.

That reply alarms me for two reasons:

Chicagoland, and all of Illinois, are very much in the tornado/severe thunderstorm outlook for late this afternoon and tonight.

The second reason it is so alarming is that is exactly the response given by a number of those caught unaware by tornadoes in the April, 2011, multi-day tornado outbreak that killed 355. A line of thunderstorms went through the morning of the 27th. People thought the dangerous storms forecast for the afternoon had simply arrived earlier and they were in the clear. Unfortunately, the forecast was right on the money but people were unprepared because of that deadly assumption.

We meteorologists believe we are clearly communicating the threats but, somehow, it get jumbled up in the translation. We have social scientists working with our science to help improve our messaging but it is obvious we have some work still to do.

Bottom line: Chicago, pay attention to the weather after about 3pm through midnight.

May, 2015, was a month of extreme flooding and moderate levels of tornadoes. In June, and the first few days of July, things calmed down. So, it may come as a surprise that major severe weather is forecast for later today and Monday by the Storm Prediction Center.

Later Today and Tonight
The significant tornado risk (5%, brown) is relatively small. It does include the Twin Cities.

The biggest threat is damaging winds with gusts above 75 mph in the hatched area. There is a significant threat of gusts of 60 mph in the yellow areas. Large hail may accompany the winds in the northern region.

Monday and Monday Night

This map combined the probabilities of the various severe weather threats (tornado, damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail) and it shows a high risk in the Midwest and Ohio Valleys.

If you live in these areas, I recommend the following:

Have at least two sources of receive storm warnings.

Make sure your dependents and friends are aware of the threat.

Start monitoring the weather if you notice the sky begin to darken.

Have fresh batteries for a flashlight, weather radio, etc.

Keep your cell phone and computer charged but unplug them before the storm arrives.