ODAC Newsletter - Sep 2

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

BP's recovery plans following last year's Deepwater Horizon disaster took a double blow this week. On Tuesday Exxon Mobil and Rosneft announced a deal to develop oil and gas reserves in the Russian Arctic — a version of the very deal that BP thought it had in the bag back in January. Then on Wednesday, to add insult to injury, BP's Moscow offices were raided by bailiffs gathering evidence for an investor who is suing BP for damages over the collapse of the January deal. All this will surely weaken CEO Bob Dudley's position with shareholders.

While Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin enthused over the Rosneft deal, President Medvedev was becoming increasingly embroiled in an escalating row with Russia's neighbour, the Ukraine. Ukrainian negotiators are pushing Russia to revise the terms of a gas supply contract signed following the 2009 dispute, when Russia cut supplies to Ukraine - and Europe - in the depths of winter. Russia has tied revision of the deal to a regional customs union which would keep Ukraine out of Europe.

So it's no surprise that Ukraine — like Poland — is eyeing the chance to loosen its energy ties to Russia by exploiting what could be large reserves of shale gas, signing its first exploration deal with Royal Dutch Shell this week. International oil companies struggling to replace their oil reserves are equally keen. And for the oil majors hoping to set off a shale gas boom in Europe, the Ukraine and Poland may be seen as easier to negotiate in terms of environmental regulations and protest than some of Western Europe — though so far UK regulators appear to be taking a lamentably laissez-faire approach.

Clearly it is in the interests of energy companies to assert the importance of shale, but estimates of how much gas is really available are proving highly controversial. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been forced to downgrade its resource estimate for the key Marcellus shale region in the northeast US by a whopping 80%, after a new assessment by the US Geological Survey released last week. This surely casts doubt on the US EIA's resource assessment for shale in the UK, where the Administration estimates recoverable resources of 560 billion cubic meters — about 6 years' of current UK consumption. The British Geological Survey, however, reckons we have only 150 billion cubic meters, or about 18 months' worth — surely marginal, given the evident risks. So much for the new paradigm.

Oil

Exxon, the world's largest company, and Rosneft signed a deal to develop oil and gas reserves in the Russian Arctic, opening up one of the last unconquered drilling frontiers.

The deal, signed in the presence of Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, dashes any hopes that BP had of reviving its own deal with Rosneft that was blocked in May by its billionaire partners in an existing Russian venture...

The world's biggest oil companies put in a pretty pathetic performance in the second quarter of 2011. Not in terms of earnings — those were great, with Exxon posting $10.7 billion and Royal Dutch Shell doing $8 billion. Just what you'd expect with Brent crude at a lofty $120 a barrel.

Where the results were disappointing was in the barrels. Of the 16 big U.S. and European oil companies studied by Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey, 14 of them saw their production of petroleum decline in the quarter. Collectively, the drop amounted to 12% of total liquids volumes, or 1.2 million bpd. Their average output for the quarter totalled, 14.67 million bpd. Even excluding the effect of Libya's issues, the decline was 8%...

At the start of the year, soaring oil prices sparked a spirited debate among analysts about the level of prices that would start to choke off demand growth.

Like most oil-market debates, discussion was heated, with analysts fiercely divided about whether any reduction in demand growth should be characterised as "rationing" and "restraint" (both of which sound more short-term and reversible) or "destruction" (with its connotations of long-term irreversible loss)...

Oil dropped in New York, trimming a second weekly gain, as investors speculated a U.S. jobs report will signal the economy is weakening, curbing fuel demand in the world's biggest crude consumer. A tropical depression shut rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Futures fell as much as 0.6 percent before data today that may show companies slowed hiring last month. Oil rose earlier after almost 6 percent of crude output in the Gulf was shut ahead of the strengthening storm. The depression may approach the southern coast of Louisiana this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center...

OPEC oil output is expected to rise in August to its highest in almost three years due to higher Nigerian exports and smaller increases from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday.

Supply from all 12 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to average 30.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up from 30.07 million bpd in July, the survey of sources at oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts found...

Thousands of fishermen and business owners in a multi-billion-dollar legal battle with BP over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill have won the right to sue for punitive damages, in a fresh defeat for the oil major.

More than 100,000 individuals, companies and authorities have filed cases claiming they suffered economic loss as a result of the leak last year. A judge, Carl Barbier, is considering 500 cases, many of them class actions, against BP and its main co-defendants, including Transocean, the rig owner...

The State Department gave a crucial green light on Friday to a proposed 1,711-mile pipeline that would carry heavy oilfrom oil sands in Canada across the Great Plains to terminals in Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. Green

The project, which would be the longest oil pipeline outside of Russia and China, has become a potent symbol in a growing fight that pits energy security against environmental risk, a struggle highlighted by last year's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico...

Gas

Ukraine gave Russia one last chance on Thursday to resolve their second major gas dispute in three years as President Dmitry Medvedev blamed Kiev for behaving unreasonably.

Energy-dependent Ukraine has been pressuring Russia to revise the terms of a contract which Kiev signed after having its winter supplies cut off in 2009 -- a controversial Kremlin move that also affected parts of Europe...

Ukraine opened shale gas development to Western giants on Thursday, assigning its first exploration contract to the Anglo-Dutch firm Shell in a deal worth up to $800 million (555 million euros). "In case of successful exploration work and the start of intense project development, Shell's total investment under the agreement may come to $800 million," the state-own Ukrgazvydobuvannya gas exploration company said.

Ukraine is widely believed to be one of Europe's largest holders of the new energy resource with estimated reserves up to 1.5 trillion cubic metres, according to industry analysts...

Before the government approves a new industrial process in the UK it must have ensured that it won't harm either people or the environment. Mustn't it? That's what any sane person would expect. Any sane person would be wrong.

One year ago, a company called Cuadrilla Resources began drilling exploratory shafts into the rock at Preese Hall near Blackpool, in north-west England, to begin the UK's first experiments with extracting gas trapped in formations of shale. The process — called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking - involves pumping a mixture of water, sand and drilling fluids at high pressure into the rock, to split it apart and release the natural gas it contains. In June, Cuadrilla temporarily suspended its operations as a result of two small earthquakes in the area, which might have been caused by the fracking. The experiment is likely to resume soon. Cuadrilla has also started exploratory drilling at two other sites in the region...

Many of the world's biggest energy companies may have to surrender most of the gas from Iraq's vast southern oilfields to a processing and export project led by Shell, a final draft contract between Baghdad and Europe's biggest company shows.

Oil giants including Royal Dutch Shell , BP, US-based Exxon , China's CNPC, and Italy's Eni signed technical service contracts to develop three oilfields in southern Iraq in 2009-2010...

Nuclear

Not since the grim period after World War II has Germany had significant blackouts, but it is now bracing for that possibility after shutting down half its nuclear reactors practically overnight.

Nuclear plants have long generated nearly a quarter of Germany's electricity. But after the tsunami and earthquake that sent radiation spewing from Fukushima, half a world away, the government disconnected the 8 oldest of Germany's 17 reactors — including the two in this drab factory town — within days. Three months later, with a new plan to power the country without nuclear energy and a growing reliance on renewable energy, Parliament voted to close them permanently. There are plans to retire the remaining nine reactors by 2022...

A plan to transport 44 tonnes of radioactive uranium and plutonium by train has run into opposition from councils worried about accidents and terrorist attacks.

The government's Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) plans to make about 50 rail shipments over the next five years from the Dounreay nuclear site in Caithness to the Sellafield reprocessing complex in Cumbria...

China has "vastly increased" the risk of a nuclear accident by opting for cheap technology that will be 100 years old by the time dozens of its reactors reach the end of their lifespans, according to diplomatic cables from the US embassy in Beijing.

The warning comes weeks after the government in Beijing resumed its ambitious nuclear expansion programme, that was temporarily halted for safety inspections in the wake of the meltdown of three reactors in Fukushima, Japan...

Renewables

Solar generators may produce the majority of the world's power within 50 years, slashing the emissions of greenhouse gases that harm the environment, according to a projection by the International Energy Agency.

Photovoltaic and solar-thermal plants may meet most of the world's demand for electricity by 2060 -- and half of all energy needs -- with wind, hydropower and biomass plants supplying much of the remaining generation, Cedric Philibert, senior analyst in the renewable energy division at the Paris-based agency, said in an Aug. 26 phone interview...

The Japanese parliament approved a feed-in tariff scheme for renewable energy producers late last week, despite the resignation of the nation's prime minister.

The bill was passed by the upper house on Friday, following approval by the lower chamber, in what turned out to be one of Naoto Kan's last acts before stepping down. Former finance minister Yoshihiko Noda was elected as his replacement today...

Climate

The future of US efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions depends upon the result of next year's presidential election, after Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney became the latest primary frontrunner to state he has doubts about mankind's contribution to climate change.

Speaking at a town hall meeting in New Hampshire, the former Massachusetts governor echoed rival presidential hopefuls Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann by arguing there is no need for legislation to curb greenhouse gas emissions...

The US government's carbon capture and storage (CCS) efforts stepped up a gear this week, with the start of construction on the government's first industrial-scale scheme and funds worth $41m set aside for another 16 research projects.

Work on the plant in Decatur, Illinois, which received $141m of public money and another $66.5m from private sector sources, started just a few weeks after American Electric Power abandoned plans to build its $668m CCS facility...

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