Brett Ferguson

Yesterday, we looked at one of the undrafted players that the Oilers are going to take a closer look at – undrafted defender Wesley Vannieuwenhuizen. He isn’t the only unsigned player hoping to earn a professional contract that the Oilers have invited, though. Brett Ferguson, a teammate of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in Red Deer, is another – and he’s an interesting prospect.

Ferguson first came to my attention when I was researching Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Back in June, I sat down and went through the scoring numbers for all of the decent offensive forwards in Red Deer, and found something interesting about Ferguson: he was the highest scorer on the team at even-strength. The reason his point totals weren’t more impressive was because he wasn’t getting power play time.

That’s basically where I left things. Ferguson’s scoring numbers at even-strength were nice, after all, but he’s also an older player – he was eligible for the 2008 NHL Draft, and at his age he should be putting up big WHL numbers.

What makes Ferguson more interesting is some of the work that Scott Reynolds has been doing lately. The gang at Copper & Blue do a lot of good work, but Reynolds’ statistical work with junior players is almost unparalleled. He went back through WHL game-sheets and ran a modified version of my Quality of Competition strategy for the Red Deer Rebels, trying to determine the calibre of opposition each player was on the ice against.

I’m going to quote Reynolds’ paragraph on Ferguson in its entirety (there’s lots of other good stuff there on Nugent-Hopkins, including his surprisingly good goal-scoring rates at even-strength that’s worth looking at too):

Finally, one last non-Nugent-Hopkins note: Brett Ferguson looks fantastic by the numbers. I know that he was twenty years old during 2010-11, and maybe every junior club has a guy that plays the toughs, drives offense for his line, and leads his team in even strength scoring, but I kind of doubt it. At 6’1”, the guy isn’t tiny either. He’s a free agent now, and even though I didn’t think about it much at the time, I’m now pretty pleased that the Oilers invited the left winger to their development camp earlier this summer. If he’s back in the fall, I know that I’ll be cheering for him to make the AHL roster and work his way up.

That’s the gist of it: Ferguson was on the top even-strength line, playing a power-vs.-power role while running up impressive offensive numbers and posting a plus-31 rating (far and away the best of any forward not on Nugent-Hopkins’ line).

It might be nothing more than the natural dominance of an older junior player largely competing against youngsters. On the other hand, there’s the distinct possibility that Ferguson is a late-bloomer, and might someday develop into a reliable NHL checker. Either way, it’s nice to know the Oilers are going to take a longer look at him.

58 Comments |

Hmm amazing what you can do with a little insomnia. As youve said, its nice that the Oilers are going to take a longer look at Ferguson, but in the end, Im just sick of waiting, long shots, obscure role playing additions, and all the various spare pieces we’ve spent the summer chewing over. Start.Training.Camp.Now.

Maybe a diamond in the rough ? Doubtfull , but worth a try i suppose . Tams has hired a managerial entourage to assist him in decision making , so how much freedom does he have in his own faith in making decisions . Reminds me of the lion and the ant . The ant works without supervision with incredible productivity until lion steps in to manage him and try and make him more productive . The lion then adds all these specialists to try and make ant more productive . etc.. The outcome with each additional specialist or managerial extention extention just makes ant work harder , but with less productivity . Eventually the lion blames the ant and thus fires the ant instead of the managerial overkill . The ant moves on and becomes productive again away from the beaucratic overkill that destoyed his productivity .

Like the ant , maybe less is more and Tams needs to put more faith in his own abilities to make decisions on his own ?

What kind of numbers did he put up prior to this year? I think its a case of playing against younger and inexperienced players. He’s not a late bloomer, if he was he would have been drafted because the scouts would have seen the upside that was there. I hope he makes it and good on the Oilers for giving him an invite, it doesn’t hurt to keep restocking the shelves should they offer him a contract.

After being to a few handful of games this past season and the one before I can tell you Ferguson is a dominate force on the ice, with or without the puck and is popular among the fans. It could be do to his age or size but I’m actually quite surprised that no NHL team has taken a look at him. I thought for sure he was drafted.

If he did pan out to the NHL level he could probably be a solid 3rd liner if all stars aligned and he reached his absolute maximum potential however I think he’d compliment the team in OKC.

I’m not sure if I am remembering this right, but the bulk of his points came late in the season and he played well in the playoffs.

Early int he year he was healthy scratched a few times even.

I think they see his second half as a breakout a la Getzlaf and Perry when they were the 3rd line for most of the season but by the playoffs they were the de facto top line.

These kinds of deals are a product of the cap, where teams pay on what they expect a player to do, not what they have done already. I expect to see it more and more often as managers look for ways to get value.

The same thing happened in the NBA when they brought in the cap. It used to be veterans getting all the money but teams had to start shelling out earlier and earlier trying to catch value. It can work out beautifully at times and it can backfire horrendously. (see players on 10M/YR deals not even dressing) Pro scouting is obviously very important.

To me, half a season and one playoffs is not enough to warrant that kind of payout. It’s banking huge on a guy that’s been playing behind two really talented Centres.

I just had a conversation with a coworker and he loved the deal. I asked him if he would give Gagner the same deal. He looked at me like I was crazy (likely true).

I asked him why it was a good deal to give 22 yr old X who has never scored more than 40 points 4.25 million a year but not good to give 22 yr old Y who has never scored less than 40 points the same money.

The answer I got was that JVR has more potential. Maybe, but that’s a lot of money to bet on potential.

Most of it has to do with what else JvR brings to the table. He is big, fast and plays physically (107 hits by JvR vs 24 for Gagner). All Gagner brings is goals and assists. If all you are looking at is the boxcars, this signing looks ridiculous. A lot of Gagner’s draftmates are starting to hit their stride – Couture just signed for 2yrs, $5.75 after a great rookie campaign. I would take either one of those guys over Gagner right now. Let’s hope Sam steps up this year and make me eat my words.

Its the new NHL and the salary cap is enormous, but I still have a problem paying 1 million a season for every 10 points scored.

It just seems like too much too soon. The established level of production is way too low. Obviously the Flyers think the kid is for real and they see him every day, but still. The signing could be a steal if the guy progresses as they expect. I’ve just seen so many promising young players in Edmonton do exactly the opposite that the gamble seems too risky for me.

Obviously it’s reflective, but ONLY for Gagner. Nobody else. And that fluctuation is clearly due to his inability to handle the pressure of more responsibility. And just look at his playoff numbers. Not a single point in 4 years. What a bum! Trade him for a bag of pucks and some skate blades as long as we dont have to throw in another pick to get it done.

I wonder if the league knows that it’s MVP was the worst defensive forward on his team (40+ games)??

Someone probably needs to tell Atl that Kane is actually worse defensively then Schremp and that they cut the wrong guy.

Think Carolina knows that Tlusty is better defensively then Stall?

Who would have guessed that Mike Modano was better defensivly then all world defensive forwards Datsyuk and Zetterberg? Hard to believe a Selke finalist was worse defensivly then a guy on his last legs.

I guess Tambillini should have won the Selke over Kessler, I mean he did have a better GAON/60.

I’m not talking about outscoring; I’m talking about how the GAON/60 is pretty weak stat… guys considered elite defensive players are putting up weak GAON/60. Also nice to see you lying again… or are you simply incapable of reading the behind the net site?

Datsyuk isn’t 1.01 GAON/60, he’s 2.51GAON/60

Zetterberg isn’t 1.04 GAON/60, he’s 2.81 GAON/60

They also aren’t anywhere close to those GFON/60 numbers either

The funniest part of your ridiculously inaccurate post is that that Zetterberg, a widely considered elite 2 way player was actually OUTSCORED by this metrics, 2.79 GFON/60 vs 2.89 GAON/60.

Honestly, pick up your game if you are going to continue with your non-sense and at least post accurate information.

JVR could be next Kesler as far as Flyers perceive him in coming years . If so , then the extention should be well within reason and expectations . Remember Clark made an offer sheet on Kesler , but lost out . Phil. might not get him that cheap come end of next year , and someone might up the stakes with an offer sheet on JVR .

I like Ferguson a whole lot. I saw Red Deer play quite a lot last year and the kid never seemed to have a bad or even mediocre game. As mentioned he never played with RNH at all, which would have been interesting. The PP was generally the RNH line with Kudrna and Persson, along with Byron Froese (Ferguson’s centre) and point man Alex Petrovic. Ferguson’s special team was the PK, where Red Deer posted a fantastic record.

He was particularly strong in the playoffs, and had an excellent summer camp with Oilers, although he had to leave the 3-on-3 early after blocking a shot with his face (!!). He’s got balls of steel and is a character guy through and through.

I was pleased to hear he was getting the invite back to rookie camp, he certainly deserves it. I understand that he’s got a solid offer from the U of A Golden Bears if nothing works out on the pro side, which as a Bears fan would be great but as a Ferguson fan I’m kind of pulling for him to get a shot at pro.

The more information that comes to light, the bigger this gamble seems to be. They could hit a jackpot or bust out. Lucky for them the Salary Cap just seems to go up and up. Add in another Canadian team and it should rise some more. By the middle of that contract 4.25 mill could be pretty average.