Faith Formation 2020 Driving Forces

What are the driving forces that will most directly impact the future of faith formation in Christian churches by 2020, and more specifically, the ability of congregations to provide vibrant faith formation over the next ten years? We cannot know what the future will hold beforehand. But we can see trends in the present, which, continuing on their current course, will have an impact on developing faith formation for 2020.

We know that Christian churches are confronted by a number of significant social, cultural, technological, and generational forces that make faith formation for all ages and generations quite challenging. There are driving forces that we can be reasonably certain will shape the worlds we are describing. These “predetermined elements” include the growing influence of Hispanic/Latino religious faith upon American Christianity, the rise of a new stage of adulthood—emerging adulthood, increasing numbers of adults sixty-five and older in American society, and increasing social, religious, and ethnic/cultural diversity in the United States. For example, it is a demographic certainty, that there will be more adults over sixty-five years old in the United States population, and in churches, over the next ten years.

Predetermined elements are important to any scenario story, but they are not the foundation on which these stories are built. Rather, scenarios are formed around “critical uncertainties”—driving forces that are considered both highly important to our focusing issue, the future of faith formation in Christian churches, and highly uncertain in terms of their future resolution. Whereas predetermined elements are predictable driving forces, uncertainties are by their nature unpredictable: their outcome can be guessed at but not known. While any single uncertainty could challenge our thinking, the future will be shaped by multiple forces playing out over time. The scenario framework provides a structured way to consider how these critical uncertainties might unfold and evolve in combination.

By reviewing research studies, analyzing trends, and consulting with leaders, the Faith Formation 2020 Initiative selected eight significant forces—critical uncertainties whose future direction is now known, but are already having a significant impact on faith formation today and it appears will continue to do so over the next decade. These eight trends may continue on their present course or change direction, but, in either case, it appears that they will have a significant impact on the future direction of faith formation through 2020.

Declining Number of Christians and Growing Number of People with No Religious Affiliation

Increasing Number of People Becoming More “Spiritual” and Less “Religious”

Declining Participation in Christian Churches

Increasing Diversity and Pluralism in American Society

Increasing Influence of Individualism on Christian Identity and Community Life