Romney to campaign in Pennsylvania on Sunday

posted at 7:21 pm on November 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Lefties are snarking on Twitter that McCain did some late campaigning in Pennsylvania too and it worked out smashingly for him. Right, but McCain was down nearly seven points nationally at the time. There was little opportunity cost to playing a longshot instead of spending a few extra hours in a swing state because there weren’t enough true swing states left to get him to 270. Romney’s in a hugely different situation. His final schedule as of this morning:

Per the RCP state averages, he’s within two points in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado, and he leads slightly in Virginia. If he’s passing on an extra trip to one of those states to spend time in Pennsylvania, it has to be because he thinks he has some small but real chance to win, not just because a la McCain he’s hoping to give Republicans a shot of enthusiasm by making a cameo on Obama turf.

Mitt Romney plans to campaign in Pennsylvania this weekend, the clearest indicator yet that the Republican nominee believes he can snatch the state and its 20 electoral votes from President Obama.

Two campaign officials confirmed that Romney would stop in Pennsylvania on Sunday amid a cross-country tour of battleground states. His running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), has scheduled a campaign stop in Harrisburg, Pa., on Saturday…

“Our campaign’s decision to travel to and campaign in Pennsylvania is just the latest example of how the race is breaking toward Governor Romney and allowing our campaign to be on offense. President Obama is playing defense in states once considered safely in his column,” said a Romney campaign adviser, who requested anonymity because the candidate’s travel plans have not been announced.

The GOP leads by nearly 20 percent in absentee ballots returned in Pennsylvania, a huge increase over 2008 and probably one of things that’s lured them in there. I’m surprised to see no visits to Nevada or Minnesota planned, though. (Maybe they’ll be added on Sunday.) Nevada’s always been favored to go blue, but it’s a crucial state potentially: If Romney takes Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, then he could lose both Ohio and Wisconsin and still win the presidency by winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Iowa is very much in play and the fact that Romney’s making two trips to New Hampshire this weekend tells you all you need to know about that. Nevada is trickier, but Jon Ralston thinks Romney still has a shot:

Hopefully there’s time to squeeze in a visit as part of the Plan C path to 270. As for Minnesota, National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar made a solid case earlier today that if any midwestern state should be fertile ground for a Romney upset, it’s this one:

Minnesota’s worth 10 electoral votes, the same as Wisconsin, so you could swap it right into Romney’s Plan B as potentially decisive in combination with wins in Iowa or New Hampshire.

As for Ohio, an internal Citizens United poll has Romney up three even as independent polls of the state show a two- to three-point Obama lead. Any chance that those independent polls in key battleground stats are wrong? Actually, yes, says HuffPo analyst Mark Blumenthal: Given the closeness of the race, there’s roughly a one in three chance that Ohio or Wisconsin or some other potentially decisive state will surprise, which may be all that Romney needs to hit 270. The great X factor, as usual, is turnout. If you think this is a typical D+3 election, then The One’s in good shape. If, like Gallup and Rasmussen, you think this is more like 2004, with a huge Republican surge eliminating the traditional Democratic advantage, then Romney’s the next president. For what it’s worth, Ramesh Ponnuru reports that the GOP insiders he’s spoken to lately — many of them unaffiliated with Romney’s campaign — really do seem to believe he’s going to pull this out. It’s not a pep talk for the base to goose enthusiasm. They just like what they’re seeing in the numbers, presumably/especially the numbers for independents.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

No middle ground when you decide to spend the final Sunday in PA. Either you have a more than legit shot at winning it, and you are ahead in OH, or OH is gone and it’s just a buck-up-the-troops desperation play.

IMO, I would spend more time in OH if it was in play.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I don’t think Ohio is an issue for Romney. I think early voting has distorted the polls there and his internals point to winning math.

And don’t forget that the jobs numbers will come out tomorrow with totals greater than 100,000 and the Unemployment rate will stay below 8%, which gives him another victory to be spun in the MSM.

There’s nothing good that can happen for Romney in the last few days. I feel sorry for him.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Nobody cares.

The msm has been spinning for four years and it hasn’t worked. Hollywood stars have shilled for Obama without ceasing, and some people think a governor they have never heard of will help him? It won’t even encourage his base to show up!

Nobody gives a damn if Obama wears a bomber jacket that they themselves can’t afford in this miserable economy.

And the camera roll-out showed that hardly any Americans were stupid enough to show up to hear Obama’s lies and demagoguery, let alone glimpse his asinine, juvenile fashion sense and listen to his ignorant, low-class grammar.

Hey gumby, you are truely delusional.. Do you think seeing people in line waiting for hours just to fill up a gas can, and then people diving in dumpsters is going to help Obama? You are really clueless. The optics are horrible. You really don’t know how politics works.

Only sicko sociopaths think 70 dead in a hurricane is a “Godsend” for Obama.

Of course, they’re also the same idiots who think there is a “Christie bump” for Obama. Bwahahahaha. Desperate & delusional — but really, that’s how they’ve always been or they wouldn’t have fallen for a fraud like Obama in the first place.

Hey tom, saw your 10:00 p.m. comment to me the other evening. Or last evening. You get on the special list ; ) P.S. The clay figurine ain’t worth it. He is on the other not so special list though. Lol!

Taking 5 Democrats with me to the Romney rally in Iowa. They are voting for Mitt and very excited to see him in person. They are ‘blue collar Dems that went to every Tea Party event with me. Not every (D) vote is a Obama vote.

Meanwhile, Obama will be cleaning up Bush’s global warming mess on the east coast and enchanting the nation with talk show appearances until his coronation next week.

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 7:49 PM

“math is hard, science is harder and research is hardest of all”

52 hurricanes have now hit the east coast in October since 1855. This has nothing to do with Global Warming. When similar ocean conditions occurred in the 50’s ten (10) hurricanes hit the east coast between 1954 and 1960.

Romney has two huge events in Ohio on Friday, including a massive rally tomorrow night to kick off the final weekend. He will also be in Columbus on Monday. Not sure why that wasn’t on the list above

I met Ann Romney today at a Victory Center in Ohio. Classy woman, much moreso than the current FLOTUS. But before her arrival, I was mingling with the volunteers and everyone was discussing GOTV. Everyone here in Ohio is pumped for this election. And one gentleman who has knocked on over a thousand doors this year told me that the response he has been getting is 80-20 in favor of Romney.

Libya is breaking through the sharia media firewall — the stand down order came from the White House, pretty clear now, Zero lied, people died — and now the hurricane areas are a powder keg, atomic bomb by Sunday, “the humanity! the humanity!” — and that Las Vegas newspaper editorial endorsing Romney, Zero is “incompetent, cowardly, dishonest” Oh, my!

The tipping point has arrived. Zero’s poll slide will pick up speed. No wonder Romney’s heading to Penn. He’s looking at a landslide.

These Pennsylvanians have moved passed clinging to guns, xenophobia, and religion and have fully embraced the idea that the government can provide all of those comforts and more if you just let them take what you deserve from some nameless, faceless rich people who probably look like Mitt Romney to provide it for you.

Once you go Democrat, you don’t go back. In other words, Mitt will be wasting his time on Sunday when he should be in Ohio shaking hands with babies or on TV flip flopping like a White Castle burger or selling some companies to China.

Meanwhile, Obama will be cleaning up Bush’s global warming mess on the east coast and enchanting the nation with talk show appearances until his coronation next week.

analhaiku on November 1, 2012 at 7:49 PM

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what happens when you habitually smoke bath salts and drink bongwater! You end up spewing absolute nonsense like this and writing poetry to your own posterior.

Funny, more than 20% of the newspapers that endorsed Obama in ’08 decided to ‘go back’ and endorse Romney in ’12. Romney is winning states that decided to ‘go back’ to Republican after four brutal years of living under the rule of your God, Barack Obama. A lot of the states that Reagan and Bush (I and II) won were Dem states that decided to ‘go back’. In other words, you have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Again.

But the low info “average voter” is just eating up the MSM fawning over Obama walking on the beach and being praised by an outspoken member of the other party. Now he’s campaigning with that bomber jacket on and looking 100% more confident than before the Frankenstorm rolled in.

after 2010, hard to believe all those people warmed up to bo all of sudden, or started loving obamacare more; if anything there are more of them, and they are more dissatisfied; axelturf’s mustachio is a goner

Actually AP I have to disagree with you a little bit. If this is a typical +3 Dem turnout then Obama loses. He needs something north of +5 to win. Romney has a solid 7-10% advantage with Indies. If you look at the polls, Obama is down in any poll where the turnout is below +5 Dem.

Ta111 on November 1, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I just posted the same as your analysis… I have no idea where Allahpundit get this D+3 number as good for Obama… I totally agree with you that in order for Obama to have a chance of winning he needs D+5 nationally and in Ohio because as you said Romney is 7-10% winning the independents. The Math cannot be disputed here…

His behavior is a nice bit of anecdotal evidence that the Dems are losing. If they were winning, he wouldn’t need to constantly lie and spin the data the way he is. There would be plenty of real data (D+9 polls don’t count) to show the Dems running away with it.

Maybe ol GumbyPoker will explain why when his ISP info shows he is from Chicago? After he was outed from Ace of Spades as a Obama worker, he left there. Curious

Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Now that’s pretty funny. I had pegged him as a campaign worker for a few weeks now, but I hadn’t heard that someone had taken the trouble to ID him.

According to GOP figures, Republicans have a solid lead in early vote totals in Pennsylvania:

In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%.

NumbersCruncher makes a good point: “I’m guessing Team Romney thinks PA is worth a shot because of big absentee lead and no early voting for O to build up. Catch them off guard?”

Looks like the bitter clingers are large and in charge. Everybody knows Philly folks don’t like bad weather.

Maybe ol GumbyPoker will explain why when his ISP info shows he is from Chicago? After he was outed from Ace of Spades as a Obama worker, he left there. Curious
Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I’m surprised the Obama campaign wasn’t able to find anyone better. They really scraped the bottom of the barrel with that guy, and they didn’t give him very good training. Gumby’s act was never believable once. None of Gumby’s posts have been at all effective at convincing Republicans to give up. They just seem to me like a waste of time to me and space in these threads.

At least he has managed to provide some comic relief for us.

I mean, really, is there anything more pathetic than working as a paid Internet troll for the failed Obama campaign.

Your world is blowing up in the Benghazi threads. And while your boss parties in Vegas tonight, all hell is breaking lose in New York and New Jersey.

97 now confirmed dead due to Sandy.

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 9:30 PM

The election is all about the casual, low-info voter. And Benghazi is just a non-starter for them. And they’ve seen Obama getting MSM praise and Chris Christie praise for his hurricane reaction and won’t focus on the massive problems going on now because that same MSM won’t call him out on it like they did with Bush and Katrina. It’s not fair and it’s not right, but it IS reality.

Just look at the way the ABC/Wash Post tracking is moving, especially with Independent voters. Obama is surging at just the right time.

And if the unemployment rate is under 8% again, Obama will be at a solid 50% approval by election day and that makes him a certainty for re-election.