Obama Voter Registration

In 2008, Barack Obama tapped into a record of nearly 15 million voters who cast ballots for the first time, a surge in registration that may be difficult to replicate next year.

Recent voter registration data show that Democrats have lostground in key states that Obama carried in 2008, an early warningsiren for the president's re-election campaign. While Republicannumbers have also dipped in some states, the drop in the Democrats'ranks highlights the importance of the Obama campaign's volunteerbase and the challenge they could have of registering new voters.

"When you look back at 2008 there has to be a recognition thatit was a historic election, a historic candidate, a historic momentin time and potentially some type of a ceiling - I'm not sure thereis ever a hard ceiling - in terms of voter registration," saidDemocratic strategist Chris Lehane. He said the political map in2012 will likely look more like it did going into the closecontests of 2000 and 2004, which hinged on swing states likeFlorida and Ohio, respectively, than in 2008, when Obama wontraditionally Republican states like Indiana and North Carolina.

Obama will have to re-ignite the passions of some Democrats whohad high hopes going into his presidency and may be ambivalentabout him now. Several states with Republican governors have triedto reduce the number of early voting days and required photo IDs, amove that Democrats say will disenfranchise poor and minorityvoters. Polls have shown some political independents drifting awayfrom Obama since 2008, meaning Democrats need to register and turn out more Hispanic and black voters, college students and women.

While Democratic registrations ballooned prior to the 2008election, the numbers have declined in several important states,including:

- Florida: Democrats added more than 600,000 registered votersbetween 2006 and 2008, giving Obama about 4.8 million registeredDemocrats to help his cause. Registered Democrats now number 4.6million in the Sunshine State. Republican registrations haveslipped from 4.1 million in 2008 to about 4.05 million in mid-March, the most recent data available. Nearly 2.6 million voters in Florida are unaffiliated.

- Pennsylvania: Democrats maintain a 1.5 million voter advantagein registrations over Republicans, but their numbers have dwindledsince Obama's election. There were 4.15 million registeredDemocrats through mid-May, compared with about 4.48 million in2008. Democrats added about a half-million voters to their rolls inthe two years prior to the 2008 election. Republicans currentlyhave more than 3 million registered voters, compared with 3.2million in 2008. About 500,000 Pennsylvania voters areunaffiliated.

- Iowa: Republicans have gained ground in the state that launched Obama's presidential bid. GOP registrations increased fromabout 625,000 voters in 2008 to nearly 640,000 in early May.Democrats, meanwhile, have fallen from about 736,000 voters in 2008to about 687,000 in May. Nonpartisan voters remain the largest blocin the Hawkeye State, representing more than 762,000 voters.

Democrats' numbers have also fallen in North Carolina, whereObama became the first Democratic nominee to carry the state since1976, and Nevada, a high-growth state that has been battered by therecession.

Several Democratic-friendly cities have not been immune, either.Philadelphia had 880,000 registered Democrats in 2008; that numberhas fallen below 800,000. Denver, where Democrats held their 2008convention, had about 200,000 registered Democrats in November 2008 - that's now down to about 120,000. In Mecklenburg County, N.C., whose county seat, Charlotte, is the site of the 2012 DemocraticNational Convention, Democrats' numbers have fallen after majorgains leading up to the 2008 election.

Obama officials said voter registration will be a top priority. Obama adviser David Axelrod said the campaign would "mount a majoreffort and it's not just about registering new voters but it's alsoreregistering people who have moved because there is a high degreeof transiency among young people and often among minority voters.We want to make sure that not only new voters but people who havemoved are registered again."

Ben LaBolt, an Obama campaign spokesman, said the president"has demonstrated a consistent ability to reach new voters andvoters who don't identify as Democrats, so party affiliation isn'tthe only factor to evaluate. The campaign's efforts to expand theelectorate to new voters and voters with less consistent votinghistories was one reason why the president was elected in 2008, andas we continue our organizing efforts it's certainly somethingwe'll take into consideration."

Finding new voters has been a longstanding goal of Obama, whoran a successful voter registration drive in Chicago when BillClinton sought the White House in 1992. Sixteen years later,Obama's campaign was fueled by a massive grassroots campaign and advocacy groups who registered millions of new voters and thenturned them out in record numbers.

In a strategy video released in April, Obama campaign managerJim Messina noted that Democrats registered about two-thirds of thenew voters in 2007 and 2008 in states that allow for partyregistration. Obama, in turn, won nearly 70 percent of the nearly15 million first-time voters in 2008.

"That made real differences in very close states across thiscountry. We've got to do that again in 2012," Messina said.

Both political parties maintain private voter databases thatallow them to closely monitor registration changes, but public datais more difficult to ascertain. Nationally, more than half thestates allow registered voters to indicate a party preference whenregistering while many states in the South and Midwest don'tprovide for a party preference.

Voter registration and turnout were critical to the last president running for re-election - George W. Bush in 2004. Bush's operation registered an estimated 3 million new voters, helping it drive up vote totals in the areas straddling key suburban regions in Florida and Ohio.

Blaise Hazelwood, who ran the Republican National Committee'svoter registration effort in 2004, said campaign officials poredover Excel charts tracking new registrations on a daily basis andused the mail, door knocking and supermarket stands to find votersin places more inclined to support Bush. She said it would bedifficult for Obama's operation to replicate 2008.

"There's no way they can get all those voters back," Hazelwoodsaid. ---Associated Press writer Jim Kuhnhenn contributed to this report.

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