State of Play in Ontario Politics – Spring 2015

If an Ontario provincial election had been held in late March 2015, the currently leaderless Ontario PCs would narrowly lead with 33% support among decided voters

Insights

Less than one year ago, the Ontario Liberal minority government fell after presenting its budget. The subsequent election in June 2014 returned a Liberal majority under Premier Kathleen Wynne. The Ontario PCs are now in the process of selecting a new leader, and a new provincial budget is to be presented in the coming weeks.

A recent Environics telephone survey of 989 Ontario voters conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology shows significant erosion in Ontario Liberal support since the last election. If an Ontario provincial election had been held in late March 2015, the currently leaderless Ontario PCs would narrowly lead with 33% support among decided voters, up two points from the last election. Ontario Liberal support now stands at 32%, down seven points from the last election. The Ontario NDP is also very much in contention, with the support of 27% of decided voters, up three points from last election. Seven percent would support other parties. It is notable that 25% of those surveyed say they are undecided on how they would vote provincially or would not vote.

The key to the Ontario Liberal victory last year was a very strong showing both in the City of Toronto and in the 905 suburban belt around Toronto. It is in these regions that Liberal support has declined the most since the last election. The PCs now lead in the 905 suburbs and in the City of Toronto, and NDP support has increased sharply turning the city into a three-way race.

There are also some notable demographic patterns in the findings.

PC support skews male and NDP support skews female. Liberal support does not vary by gender.

NDP support is strongest among those under 45, Liberal support is strongest among middle-aged 45- to 59-year-olds, and the PCs dominate among older voters over the age of 60.

When it comes to education, Liberals lead the PCs by a wide margin among those with a university education, while the PCs have a strong lead among those with no post-secondary education. NDP is support does not vary by education.

When it comes to household income, Ontario Liberal support is highly concentrated among the wealthiest Ontarians with household incomes of over $100,000 per year. NDP support skews towards those with lower incomes. PC support does not vary by income.

The Ontario NDP is the most popular party among those in union households.

The above is a graphical representation of the Gartner Hype Cycle and where research technologies currently fall on it. As you can see, we believe that video analysis has recently hit a “technological trigger.”