Tropical Storm JOVA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
CORRECTED INCORRECTLY TRANSMITTED DISCUSSION
JOVA IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS HAS DISPLACED THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9. JOVA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN TO THE WEST...SHOULD STEER JOVA
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING JOVA
TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN
MEXICO. TWO OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH BOTH SHOW
A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE AND THUS CALL FOR
LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN JOVA AND IRWIN MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
STILL POSSIBLE....CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIRECT
INTERACTION.
WHILE JOVA REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...THE CURRENT SHEAR IS NOT INITIALIZED PROPERLY BY ANY
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN IT MAY DIMINISH. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE
SHEAR WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AFTER
24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITIES BEFORE LANDFALL BASED
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH FORECAST MORE TIME OVER WATER...SHOW JOVA
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING MEXICO.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4
AND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT
THAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 13.0N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 13.9N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.8N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.7N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.6N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 18.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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