Looking beyond the stick to maintain Burma's momentum

The country's government needs to know its recent moves are appreciated.

THE Burmese are a tranquil people, even on an election day clearly going to challenge the army generals who've ruled them for the past 50 years.

So it was at the little wooden Buddhist prayer hall of No. 9 Ward in Rangoon's Mayangone district, turned into a polling booth on Sunday, when a little crowd gathered as officials began counting the 571 votes. They stood quietly, tying and retying their sarongs, idly chatting.

But when word came out that Dr May Win Myint, candidate of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, had got 402 of the votes, the throng erupted into cheers. A few broke into dance. Many called out the word ''baydah!''

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An English speaker explained: it was the Burmese name of the water hyacinth. No matter how much the village ducks tuck into its purple flowers, it regenerates more blossoms. This humble waterweed was a symbol of resistance, pinned to Suu Kyi, a figure also difficult to eradicate.

Now she has had dramatic vindication for her 24 years of bitter struggle. The NLD's win in nearly all of the 45 parliamentary seats at stake in Sunday's byelections is humiliating for the military-created Union Solidarity and Development Party, and an ominous pointer for the army.

The USDP won its majority in 2010 in the absence of competition, neutral witnesses, and fair play. In these byelections the vote was fairly run and transparent, as far as foreign monitors invited by the government could see. If the same result is writ larger in the next general election, in 2015, the NLD will be swept into power.

It's been a huge gamble for President Thein Sein, a retired general who as prime minister in the former military regime was regarded as a corruption-free moderate (at least relatively). At his back are hardliners such as the former regime chief, General Than Shwe - of unknown remaining influence - and General Shwe Mann, once regarded as heir apparent, now shunted aside to the speakership of the parliament.

To placate them, Thein Sein will be looking for quick rewards for giving foreign critics a burst of real democracy: easing personal sanctions on Burmese leaders, lifting trade and investment barriers, and attendance by world leaders at meetings when Burma takes the chair of the Association of South-East Asian Nations in 2014.

Suu Kyi is taking a gamble too. Persuaded by Thein Sein to stand for the byelections, she has given some legitimacy to the army-designed 2008 constitution she previously rejected. ''She takes the political risk,'' says Ko Ko Gyi, a revered leader of the student uprising in 1988 that launched Suu Kyi into politics.

For the outside world, Burma now calls for fine judgment over easing sanctions, as summed up by Foreign Minister Bob Carr on Monday. ''We want to go far enough to encourage the government to continue to move and roll out democratisation,'' he said. ''But we don't want to remove all the pressure to do the good work.''

Canberra will be listening to many voices as it makes this judgment: to oil companies, banks and other investors hoping to get in early on an anticipated boom; to Suu Kyi and ethnic resistance groups wanting the pressure kept up; to development institutions wanting to tackle Burma's serious poverty; to strategic analysts wanting to displace Chinese influence.

Those who want to lift sanctions will ask: why is Burma so special? After all, the West does business as usual with neighbouring Thailand, where the army frequently mounts coups. Oddly, on Sunday, election monitors arrived from Vietnam, a one-party state, and Brunei, an absolute monarchy - both valued partners of the West.

They will also argue that sanctions don't bring change, they only enrich the regime big shots, who can set up mirror accounts in places such as Singapore to fool the US or Australian treasuries, while the poor are robbed of labour-intensive investments. An open door will bring the economic change that strengthens civil society against the military-controlled state - and persuades younger army officers to take a smaller slice of a bigger budget.

Ko Ko Gyi, 50, is not kindly disposed to the military. Since the 1988 uprising, he has spent 18½ years in jail, his latest term ending when President Thein Sein released a large batch of political prisoners this January. His '88 Generation group is aligned with the NLD but not part of it. With colleague Min Ko Naing, 49, he is a leadership prospect for a democratic Burma after Suu Kyi, who is about 16 years their senior.

He argues for peeling back ''little by little'' the sanctions built up with every major atrocity by the former regime since 1988. Aid programs in health and education are already approved by Suu Kyi and his group, but foreign investment should come in step with reform of Burma's exchange rate, institutions, banking system and government budget to spread the benefits.

But he says the government needs reassuring. ''We have to appreciate their reforms, we have to encourage their reforms,'' he said, adding: ''If they crystallise their promises, we will agree.''

Burma's generals have done stupid, brutal things many times before to block democracy. But the time is fast approaching when sanctions will have done whatever good they can, and the drive for reform is taken over by Burma's reawakened, less fearful population. The water hyacinth is breaking out in flowers across the country.

Hamish McDonald is a senior Fairfax journalist and Asia Pacific specialist. He was one of the Australian election monitors.