November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areasSouthern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in NovemberNovember was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. droughtAt the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activityNovember, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continueStrong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in CopenhagenOur Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

a permanent ban?! didn't know that could happen... i couldn't stand the posts of Al Gore any more than one is capable of, and yet i still would not call for a permanent ban. she was just havin fun, at times even deflating the ridiculous tension in the blog air. i know of several frequent bloggers here who deserve that ax much more.. couple cents...

12Z MODELS BRIEFLY REVIEWED AND WE ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING EXTENDINGWINTER STORM WATCHES INTO PORTIONS OF N CT...RI AND S CENTRAL/EASTERNMA WITH 4 PM FORECAST. STILL NEED TO ASSESS MORE MODEL DATA AS WELLAS COORDINATE WITH HPC AND SURROUDING OFFICES.

12Z NAM TRACK BRINGS LOW VERY CLOSE TO 40/70 WHILE GFS REMAINS A BITFARTHER OFFSHORE. CLIMATAOLOGICALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR MAX SNOWFALLALONG PVD-TAN-PYM CORRIDOR...IF NOT A BIT FARTHER N GIVEN ENHANCEMENTFROM NE FLOW.

BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONG SIGNALS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING WITH -EPV/FGENSIGNATURE... PERHAPS EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER? WE ALSONEED TO CONSIDER LOCATION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH COULDBRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS FARTHER INLAND...THIS COULD NIX ARGUMENT FORTIGHT NORTHERN EDGE TO PRECIPITATION SHIELD.this is out of taunton mass

Uh Huh, you betcha'! I learned that some posters can say all kinds of nasty things, but do NOT mess with the Queen or incur the wrath of Canadians! (from posting $2 Canadian "Devil's" note)...tee heeOrca said he didn't need to polish his halo, what could I do?

Quoting jeffs713:TWC is useless now. They downcast events that don't get people excited (like hot weather, or the chance of flooding), but hype up events that can drive their ratings (like Hurricanes and vicious Nor'Easters).

I get my weather info just from here, and the NWS discussions.

Ya its like a reality weather show, I cant stand it. Plus you cant trust what they say. Even there high and low temps are usually way off.

This storm is definitely going to leave its mark in the DC area and up the coast to New Jersey,but I'm sitting here just west of Boston,and have no idea what I'm going to get,a deviation of 50 miles either way,will decide whether I get a foot or a couple of inches.I'm probably not going to know until tomorrow afternoon.

Quoting jeffs713:TWC is useless now. They downcast events that don't get people excited (like hot weather, or the chance of flooding), but hype up events that can drive their ratings (like Hurricanes and vicious Nor'Easters).

Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of eastern Texas, southern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. Flash Flood and Flood Watches have been issued for much of southern Louisiana. More rain is expected today for the already saturated area but the system is expected to be out of the area by Friday night. The five affected States have received more than 20 inches of rain in the last 14 days, and an additional 3 inches of rain could affect these areas through Friday.

LouisianaLouisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) remains partially activated to support flood response operations (Level III; Crisis Activation Team). The American Red Cross shelter in St. Charles Parish is now closed. Flood warnings continue for many locations, but no significant issues have been reported. (GOHSEP, NOAA, FEMA Region VI)

MississippiEOC remains at Level IV (Normal Operations). Flood warnings continue for many locations, but no significant issues have been reported.

AlabamaAlabama EOC remains partially activated (Level III). There are no reports of fatalities or injuries.

One shelter is open in Baldwin County with no occupants as of 3:00 p.m. EST Wednesday. Several roads and bridges remain closed and there are downed trees in numerous counties. Schools are closed in Covington and Escambia counties.

FloridaFlorida EOC remains at a Level III (Monitoring). Many locations are under flood warnings, but no significant issues have been reported.

On Wednesday, December 16, 2009, the Mayon Volcano spewed ash 500 meters high accompanied by lava and mud flowing down its slopes. Mayon is the Philippines’ most active of 22 volcanoes. Volcanologists recorded at least five minor explosions, and they expect a major eruption soon. Nearly 80 high frequency quakes have been recorded around the volcano within the last 24 hours.

Officials have raised Mayon’s volcanic alert. Media sources reported that more than 30,000 people have been evacuated from danger zones. Ashfall has affected two towns near Mayon’s slope, and residents in three cities and five towns have been advised to cover their mouths and noses to prevent ash inhalation. Also, 50,000 masks will be distributed to residents, and food and water stations will be established for displaced families.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment # 2 to FEMA-1861-DR-Arkansas: Effective December 16, 2009, this major disaster was amended to include Drew County for Public Assistance.

On December 16, 2009, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1864-DR for the State of Nebraska for severe winter storms that occurred November 16-17, 2009. The declaration authorizes Public Assistance for Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Pawnee, Richardson, and Thayer counties. The FCO is Stephen R. Thompson of the National FCO Program. (FEMA HQ)

Quoting OuterBanker:Last nite, WUers were telling me 8 to 12 inches in DC area. To you guys and gals credit, you were ahead of the local news which is now saying 8+. uh, + what...2 feet, 5 feet, + storm surge. Anyway, I have MD appts., on Monday and was trying to get a sense. As an outer bank person, I have less than no trust in the weather channel.

Quoting OuterBanker:Last nite, WUers were telling me 8 to 12 inches in DC area. To you guys and gals credit, you were ahead of the local news which is now saying 8+. uh, + what...2 feet, 5 feet, + storm surge. Anyway, I have MD appts., on Monday and was trying to get a sense. As an outer bank person, I have less than no trust in the weather channel.

TWC is useless now. They downcast events that don't get people excited (like hot weather, or the chance of flooding), but hype up events that can drive their ratings (like Hurricanes and vicious Nor'Easters).

Last nite, WUers were telling me 8 to 12 inches in DC area. To you guys and gals credit, you were ahead of the local news which is now saying 8+. uh, + what...2 feet, 5 feet, + storm surge. Anyway, I have MD appts., on Monday and was trying to get a sense. As an outer bank person, I have less than no trust in the weather channel.

Quoting pcola57:ok...thanks PensacolDoug...i did see that on your weather stat of 1.71"...but it takes at least 3-4" to raise my pool that much...i guess we got a little more where i'm at...thanks again...does anyone know of a real-time link that shows storm rainfall totals...i've tried trimm sat and wunderground links but nothing is current...???

I would suggest going to your local WU radar, and clicking on "storm total" for precip. I think the NWS has some radar-based products too.. check out www.weather.gov.

Quoting ADCS:All right, guys, I have a flight out of Philly on Sunday at noon. How long is that flight going to be delayed?

Since Philly usually gets hit HARD by weather delays (only ones that are worse are the NYC airports), I'm guessing 2 hours. Philly gets hit hard by weather delays due to the setup of the airport (taxiway crosses an active runway), an overbooked takeoff/landing schedule (it is US Airways' main NE hub, and a common alternative to NYC airports), and how closely it is tied to the NYC airports (Continental is allied with United and US Airways now, so Philly gets overflow from Newark, Laguardia/JFK, and the DC-area airports).

ok...thanks PensacolDoug...i did see that on your weather stat of 1.71"...but it takes at least 3-4" to raise my pool that much...i guess we got a little more where i'm at...thanks again...does anyone know of a real-time link that shows storm rainfall totals...i've tried trimm sat and wunderground links but nothing is current...???

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A GLANCING BLOW WITH LESS SNOW AND LIGHTER WINDS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

&&

More Information... POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING... THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE LOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... AS WELL AS A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS. AT THIS TIME... THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 100 MILES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.