“Law school just isn’t the path into the middle class that it once was,” Alfred Brophy, a University of North Carolina School of Law professor who tracks enrollment, told NLJ. “Things have tumbled downhill very rapidly. … Students are disappearing, and it’s unclear when they’re going to come back.”

Some law schools have cut staff and pruned faculty to cope with budgetary woes. Others have watched their credit ratings dip, particularly some smaller or stand-alone laws schools.

The most recent data on Law School Admission Test takers doesn’t inspire much confidence either. As Law Blog reported in June, the 21,802 people who sat for the LSAT that month represents the lowest June total in 14 years.

So how many first-year law students can we reasonably expect to enroll this year?

According to NLJ:

Final 2014 enrollment figures won’t be available until fall, but Brophy’s 38,000 estimate — based on correlations between applicants and matriculants over the years — would be the smallest cohort of first-years since 1974, according to data from the ABA.

To be sure, elite law schools at the top of the heap should have less trouble filling seats than mid-tier or unranked schools. And demand also can vary depending on the region and pool of prospective students.

For example, UNT Dallas College of Law got nearly twice as many applications as expected for its inaugural class in fall 2014—more than 600, compared to the projected 350 or so applications, according to the Dallas Morning News:

“‘Holy cow’ was our reaction,” said Royal Furgeson, a retired U.S. district judge and founding dean of the new law campus. “It tells you there’s a pent-up demand for law school here.”

Pitched at local college students seeking an affordable, hands-on legal education, UNT Dallas is among a handful of new law schools to launch in recent years despite the enrollment decline. The school has enrolled about 140 students so far, who can expect to pay $14,040 for in-state tuition and another $500 in fees.

Correction: A previous version of this post incorrectly referred to the Law School Admission Council and the Law School Admission Test. “Admission” is singular in both cases.

About Law Blog

The Law Blog covers the legal arena’s hot cases, emerging trends and big personalities. It’s brought to you by lead writer Jacob Gershman with contributions from across The Wall Street Journal’s staff. Jacob comes here after more than half a decade covering the bare-knuckle politics of New York State. His inside-the-room reporting left him steeped in legal and regulatory issues that continue to grab headlines.

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