Crime and Recession: Initial Clues

With the recession officially beginning in December 2007, some speculated the economic downturn would result in increased crime, especially property crime. Yet, the Department of Justice’s just-released 2008 National Crime Victimization Survey shows violent and property crime did not increase last year.

• The violent crime rate dropped from 20.7 “victimizations” per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2007 to 19.3 incidents last year. The difference is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Thus, statistically speaking, the violent crime rate didn’t change.
• The property crime rate dropped from 146.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older to 134.7 incidents —a decrease of 8.1 percent. That certainly is a statistically distinguishable decline.

Although it is still too early to tell how the recession and rising unemployment rates affected crime in 2009, the fact that national crime rates did not increase in 2008 suggests this year’s anticipated increase may not materialize. Let’s hope so.

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David B. Muhlhausen is a leading expert on criminal justice programs in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis. A research fellow in empirical policy analysis at the think tank, Muhlhausen has testified frequently before Congress on the efficiency and effectiveness of law enforcement grants administered by the U.S. Justice Department.

The real criminals are in Washington D.C. and we can still make enough ropes create enough chain gangs and envoke enough rock piles to repair most of the woes in this nation and put honest men to work chasing our own natural resources and dreams. As for the street thugs they are the residue of the criminal activity in Washington and in state and local level governments and mostly broken and defunct judiciary and a news media that have neglected thier responsiblitites and taken bribes for years.

So I say the gallows for some, the rock piles for others and chain gangs for the rest and that is for those in Washington as for the street thug repeat the above as many times as needed.

With the potential of a double dipped recession and a creeping inflation rate, it's just a matter of time. Unemployment at 9.7 and expected to rise. At some point stress & desperation will set in, especially among those who placed too much faith in government & not in God or themselves. The sense of entitlement will drive them over the edge. Parts of Houston experienced this after Katrina. As the present administration continues their assualt on the country, 12% or more unemployment is not an impossibility. Who knows what effects obama & his czars(i.e. Cass Sundstein) will have on the job market. Remember "Idle hands……"

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