Calgary Real Estate by Tost Realty Group

Looking back on 2015, the impact of low oil prices on Calgary’s economy and housing market is clear to see. Not only did the market struggle in terms of sales, but prices have been falling as inventory has increased.

Getting Off to a Rough Start

During the first quarter of 2015, buyers took on a “wait and see” approach as they watched the market and how it would be affected by the oil industry. As a result, the market started to see a decrease in sales activity. When coupled with an increase in new listings activity, inventory began to slowly increase while prices dropped when compared to the final quarter of 2014. On average, the first quarter saw months of supply hit 4.16 during the first quarter.

Given the current conditions of the Calgary housing market, it is clearly a buyer’s market, with inventories high and prices dropping. Predictions for 2016 indicate that this trend is not likely to change any time soon.

The Impact of Oil on the Housing Market

Currently, there is nothing to indicate that 2016 will be any different from 2015 in terms of the oil industry, which means demand for housing in Calgary is likely to remain weak in the New Year. Similarly, net migration is expected to fall short of 2015 levels in 2016. Whereas 2015 saw 14,951 in net migration, 2016 is expected to see just 11,747. This is mostly due to a lack of higher-paying employment opportunities. In short, ongoing problems within the oil industry will continue to impact the Calgary housing market, including both property purchases and rentals. Furthermore, rising vacancy rate will put downward pressure on rental rates...

Calgary housing sales experienced a slowdown as unadjusted benchmark prices fell in December. While this can be partially attributed to the winter months, the downturn is also related to the economic uncertainty in the area that has been characterized by job losses and a weakened economy.

A Slowdown in Sales

During the month of December, Calgary housing sales slowed down to 878 units. Not only does this represent an 18 percent drop when compared to the same time last year, but it is also far below the five and ten-year averages for the Calgary market.

Falling Benchmark Prices

As a result of the slowdown of sales in Calgary, the unadjusted benchmark prices have also taken a hit. In December, the unadjusted benchmark prices in Calgary fell to...