Windows 8 Won't Be Saved By Keyboards

From Microsoft's perspective, the most obvious answer is troublingly simple: Consumers like the design of certain Windows 8 devices but are repelled by everything else -- the Live Tiles, the Search charm, the missing Start button, the lack of quality apps, the high prices, and so on.

Whether Microsoft can rebound with Windows 8.1 likely depends on how charitably one defines "rebound."

In the enterprise, Microsoft should see a meaningful uptick. Windows 8 will probably never be as big as Windows XP or Windows 7, but Windows 8.1 should ensure the OS won't turn into Windows Vista either.

Windows software isn't going to stop being important to businesses. As companies that have already switched to Windows 7 begin to buy new machines in coming years, Microsoft can expect many of them to switch to whatever version of Windows is most current. Plus, there is the virtualization trend and products such as Windows 8 to Go, which enable Windows to persist even when workers use non-Windows hardware. Microsoft is also intelligently leveraging Azure to compensate for the decline in Windows' stature.

Still, it all falls short of Microsoft's historic world-beating standards and also the "one Microsoft" vision around which Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer recently reorganized the company.

To meet loftier goals, Microsoft also needs to tap into BYOD and consumerization trends. For established enterprise workflows, Windows beats all comers. But new movements such as BYOD have begun to impact business workflows in more organic ways. Apple didn't become an enterprise player because of strategic planning; it became one because people liked using the iPad and found ways to use it at work. This encouraged developers to make line-of-business apps, and now Apple and Android tablets are in workplaces all over the world. Microsoft needs to find a way for Windows 8 to inspire comparable user interest.

Unfortunately for Microsoft, it's not clear if Windows 8.1 can generate this kind of user enthusiasm. The update is an objective improvement over Windows 8, but it isn't a top-to-bottom redesign. If users truly hate the Modern UI, the update isn't going to appease them. Microsoft's best hope is that people abhor Live Tiles less than they think they do.

Window 8's infamous learning curve is manageable but takes at least a little effort. It's possible that some Win 8 dissenters were simply so discombobulated by the Modern UI that they never gave the OS a chance. In the best-case scenario for Microsoft, Windows 8.1 will allow users to become comfortable with the UI more quickly, leading to fewer kneejerk dismissals of the interface.

Intel's new Haswell and Bay Trail chips should also help by endowing Windows 8.1 tablets with stronger graphics processing and better battery life. More affordable Windows tablets will help too, though many models, including the recently discounted Surface tablets, still cost more than competitors' offerings.

We may, as many argue, have entered into a "post-PC era" dominated by smartphones and tablets, posing a challenge to companies like Intel and Dell and Microsoft that were leaders of the PC era. It is still unclear whether the past leaders can transition into leadership positions in the new era. One thing is clear, however: Microsoft needs to do more than hope that keyboards will drive sales of its flagship operating system.

the horse is dead, it is not a matter of how hard they will beat it or how much cash they have to burn (now, it is far far far less than aapl, google, and disgruntled oems turning to android!).if they lose oem support, pc market will not obviously die tomorrow, but people will buy, as always the 95% did, what they find in the supply chain, and now that Vallmer insulted oems turning ms in a competitor hw company, it will be android or whatever else.w8 is no longer a selling point.

Forrester samples knowledge workers, who are more securely tethered to keyboards than most people. Introducing a tablet only has to reduce laptop use if one assumes that overall computing activity is static.

I, for example, have both tablets (with keyboards) and computers in my household. A few years ago, I had only computers. Today, I probably spend 20% of my time on a tablet and 80% of my time on a computer-- so in percentage terms, my PC usage has declined. However, I type a ton more today than I did a few years ago, which means I spend more time than ever before looking at a laptop. I also spend more time at my desktop working on other things that tablets aren't suited for, such as photo and video projects. My overall time spent at computers has increased by a huge margin. So in that sense, my PC use actually increased DESPITE the introduction of a tablet.

I might not represent a typical case, and I think you're probably right that, on the whole, most people spend less time on their PCs because they now have tablets.

But you can see why only 35% of knowledge workers would perceive that they're using their laptops or PCs any less, or that their laptops or PCs are any less essential. The number of them who do substantial typing on a tablet is predictably confined.

I agree-- the point of the 80% stat is that most people want to use smartphones, tablets, and PCs together - in some proportion or another - instead of a device that tries to be all things to all people.

Windows 8 built a lot of its appeal around consolidating a tablet and a laptop into one device, and Intel bought in too, by incorporating touch into the Ultrabook specifications. But it's turned out that while people don't mind a tablet that can take over for a laptop in a pinch, they still want real computers. They don't want to replace real computers as often as they replace smartphones and tablets, but they want real computers.

If Microsoft has its way, "real computers" will eventually include Surface Pro-like devices that get docked to a separate monitor and keyboard. The computer's form factor becomes even more modular, in other words. But we're a lot of consumer and enterprise hardware spending away from that vision happening. So the Forrester stats are interesting in the sense that they reinforce that one of Microsoft/ Intel's primary bets hasn't paid off.

The conversation gains another wrinkle because there ARE a minority of users who want a do-it-all device, and Windows 8 still hasn't capitalized on this niche.

Agreed but MS is not Commodore. It has a lot of money and horizontal market positions to burn. If MS goes away, which I don't think it will, it won't go quietly and it will continue to burn cash for a quite a while. They are still making huge profits with, for most companies, big margins. Until that stops, they'll continue to beat whatever horses they can.

i hadn't thought of that point, it's a great observation that laptop use only declined for 35% since they began using a tablet. My own laptop use hasn't noticeably dropped -- I use a tablet for reading, taking notes and watching Netflix mostly. That low decline in laptop use casts some doubt on this being the post-PC era. At the least it suggests people are likely to still buy a whole lot of PCs in the post-PC era.

"Some 35% of the study's respondents said their laptop use has declined since they began using tablets."

Shouldn't this figure be more like 100%? How can anyone think that laptop use would not decline after buying a tablet? Unless signif typing is involved, most people use a tablet instead of a laptop when on-the-go, whilst less than 10 years ago a laptop was the only option. Admittedly, a tablet eats even more into smartphone use for lots of users (assuming they owned their smartphones first), but that doesn't mean the answer to 'has your laptop use declined...' wouldn't still be 'yes'.

This whole argument is pretty silly. Almost everyone has both, plus a smartphone. I also have a Netbook, which is great for "I mite need to type more than is practical on my Kindle Fire, but I still don't want to carry my laptop thru the airport." I'd love to replace it with something like the Surface Pro, but the SP costs about 250% what the Netbook did, and the Metro interface makes me want to kill myself. The Netbook also has 3x as much local storage as the SP, which is a difference that apparently everyone except me thinks is no big deal.

This is all sort of like discussing whether dinner plates are being replaced by salad plates, and of course throwing in the suggestion that serving platters (desktop PC's) won't even be around in 5 years. All of them will always be around, just in different proportions.

they have not talent for whatsoever market. oem were the key of ms success, and now they are starting thriving android business because of the dancing chair throwing ballmerboy bufooooon 1) wasted a decade and did not come out with a good mobile product 2) bet the comany on competing against oem with surface.i wonder how there us still people not understanding how doomed is ms now.