Who will end 2012 as number 1?

Federer

Djokovic

Hi, im new on this forum, i've been reading the threads but never post before, this is my first post, and i dedided to make in a new thread.

I want to know who you think will end the year as number 1, just two options: Federer or Djokovic?
If we take look at points to defend, the favourite is Nole, but this is Rogers best part of the season....so its quite a close fight between these two.

Just to make it clear, as I'm not sure...
Is the "Year End #1" determinated by the general ATP ranking, or by the ATP RACE ranking ?
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ATP ranking is derived from points accumulated over the last 52 weeks. ATP RACE ranking is derived from points earned since 01-JAN this year. Obviously on the 31st of December these two ranking systems exactly match (because the 52 weeks before the 31st of December was the 01-JAN).

Never liked the RACE rankings. Basically if the number 200 player in the world won an event in the first week of JAnuary - and the top players didn't play that week then that player would be the number 1 in the RACE.

ATP ranking is derived from points accumulated over the last 52 weeks. ATP RACE ranking is derived from points earned since 01-JAN this year. Obviously on the 31st of December these two ranking systems exactly match (because the 52 weeks before the 31st of December was the 01-JAN).

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Wow... I simply didn't think that those 2 rankings match at the end of the year... and well it's just obvious !!
Thank you for that answer
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Djokovic. Federer has way more points to defend and it sounds like he's going to skip the Asian swing.

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I would be surprised if he does that. This is his last real chance ever to grab a share of the year end #1 rankings record. Federer has always been motivated by records. He wont let a chance like this pass without giving it his all to get it.

Murray is over 3000 points behind Djokovic on the ATP Race (which will be the year end rankings at year end). He has virtually no chance. It would require him not only sweeping the fall indoor season and winning every event he is in (possible I suppose, though unlikely) but Djokovic going something like 2-6 the rest of the year including the WTF. That isnt even to mention the 2000 Race points he is behind Federer.

Djokovic and Federer would both have to suffer a huge injury and not play another tournament the rest of the year, and would still leave Murray with a tough task.

Murray is over 3000 points behind Djokovic on the ATP Race (which will be the year end rankings at year end). He has virtually no chance. It would require him not only sweeping the fall indoor season and winning every event he is in (possible I suppose, though unlikely) but Djokovic going something like 2-6 the rest of the year including the WTF. That isnt even to mention the 2000 Race points he is behind Federer.

Djokovic and Federer would both have to suffer a huge injury and not play another tournament the rest of the year, and would still leave Murray with a tough task.

I hope Djokovic gets it since I think he is still the best player and the true #1 right now. The slams are what matter most and while both he and Roger won only 1 slam Djokovic was clearly better in 3 of the 4:

Australian Open- Roger loses to Nadal in semis, who loses to Djokovic in final.

French Open- Djokovic beats Roger in straights in semis, and goes on to lose tough final to Nadal.

So if it is indeed Djokovic which it seems most people are thinking, it would be the fitting result IMO. Although if Roger gets it by winning the WTF, which it seems likely he will have to in order to get it (and even then wont guarantee it) I wont begrudge him it either.

Me too. I am a Federer fan but think it is unlikely he can make up the 1000 points. The only reason he had so many more points than Djokovic is because Djokovic already had #1 wrapped up and was worn down. I think he will take #1 this year.

Me too. I am a Federer fan but think it is unlikely he can make up the 1000 points. The only reason he had so many more points than Djokovic is because Djokovic already had #1 wrapped up and was worn down. I think he will take #1 this year.

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Depends on Federer's form. He is better then Djokovic indoors, so it is not out of the question.

I hope Djokovic gets it since I think he is still the best player and the true #1 right now. The slams are what matter most and while both he and Roger won only 1 slam Djokovic was clearly better in 3 of the 4:

Australian Open- Roger loses to Nadal in semis, who loses to Djokovic in final.

French Open- Djokovic beats Roger in straights in semis, and goes on to lose tough final to Nadal.

So if it is indeed Djokovic which it seems most people are thinking, it would be the fitting result IMO. Although if Roger gets it by winning the WTF, which it seems likely he will have to in order to get it (and even then wont guarantee it) I wont begrudge him it either.

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NO!! see Djokovic won Aussie, Miami and Rogers Cup. Federer won Wimby Indian wells, Madrid (clay) Rotterdam, Dubai, and Cincy beating Djokovic 6-0 7-6 and a Silver medal!!! Hes won on all surfaces this year and has an olympic medal therefore I think he deserves it more

I will answer this for you exactly how senti did, paris and basel are like warm - ups for WTF not shanghai (its too far from WTF), so he may lose a step in WTF by avoiding paris!

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Well, it is actually quite possible that he would skip Shanghai and play three in a row. Either way, there is a realistic chance for him to keep the rating if he performs well and Djokovic falls short.

NO!! see Djokovic won Aussie, Miami and Rogers Cup. Federer won Wimby Indian wells, Madrid (clay) Rotterdam, Dubai, and Cincy beating Djokovic 6-0 7-6 and a Silver medal!!! Hes won on all surfaces this year and has an olympic medal therefore I think he deserves it more

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Lets break it down by surface:

Clay- Federer won Madrid, but Djokovic reached the Roland Garros finals and the finals of both Monte Carlo and Rome. I would give Djokovic the edge overall, RG final is already worth atleast equal to a Masters title, and he did better at 3 of the 4 major events (yes a DNP counts as doing worse in an even bigger way btw, as you relegate yourself to 0 points).

Hard Courts- Djokovic with 1 slam, another slam final, and both have 2 Masters. No contest Djokovic. A couple more minor sub Master level event titles would not compensate the difference of 1 slam and 1 other slam final vs 1 slam semi and 1 slam quarter.

Grass- No contest Federer.

So breaking it down that way as well Djokovic is slightly ahead at this point. The Race points back this up too, there is a reason Djokovic is about 1000 points ahead. If Federer wins the WTF he will probably end the year end #1 anyway, and probably deserve it in that case as well.

I believe even with all possible permutations it's in Novak's hands.Federer can only defend points where Novak can gain.

Federer is one of the greatest indoor players ever so if he's up for it he can hang onto the lead he has.

Novak still has quetions over him about performing for an entre season.However if he had won Wimbledon or the USopen he probably would have tailed off at this stage and played second fiddle.
After a season that promised much after Australia he has gone on to miss all of his mid season goals.Now he's motivated and probaly not as physically spent as last season.

Federer has complained of feeling wounded very surprising considering what he has manged to win the last 12 months.I think he was too hard on himself for losing at Flushing Meadows.

It comes down to the events they both pick and the mindset of the 2.
Who wants it most.

It comes down to the events they both pick and the mindset of the 2.
Who wants it most.

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Not exactly. At this stage, I feel that Federer wants it much more than Djokovic, no question.

However, he is 1,000 points behind, and likely to be 1,500 points behind next week with Djokovic playing Beijing vs no real threat. And this is definitely *huge* ground to cover in just three (or four) tournaments, none of which is a slam.

At the moment, the crowded schedule of the Olympic year seems to advantage Djokovic big time (the 1,000 points he was able to add to his tally by basically being the only one to play in Canada being the extend of his current lead), but there is still a lot of tennis to be played, so let's see how this pans out.

Edit: Also, who gets Murray in his part of the draw in Shanghai could very well be a big factor (if not the deciding one), the Brit being arguably the favourite to win the whole thing.

Trying to be optimistic here, but Fed isn't gonna go perform as well as he did in last year's end of season run.

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I'd say 75-25 to Djokovic now.

If Fed wins Shanghai (or reaches the final but with Djokovic losing in the SF or earlier) I'd give it a 60-40 to Djokovic.

1000 points is huge at this stage of year, there are only 4-5 tournaments to be played which means that Federer at 31 has to gain at least 1000 more points than a 25-year old Djokovic in those remaining events. It's a big ask but Fed has an outside chance if he GOATs again.

How on earth can their be odds on some of those players. Roddick is well outside the top 10 in both ATP rankings and the Race and has officialy retired. Soderling doesnt even have a ranking anymore. Nobody below Murray or Nadal could even mathematically reach #1 if they won every tournament until years end and Djokovic and Federer did not win another match all year. I guess they are taking advantage of some incredibly stupid people out there who have no business making any tennis related bets.

MC doesn't really matter that much. Djokovic only played 13 tournaments this year. Fed played 16. Novak is still leading the race, so I assume he'll probably end up as #1. Also, Fed has too many points to defend.

MC doesn't really matter that much. Djokovic only played 13 tournaments this year. Fed played 16. Novak is still leading the race, so I assume he'll probably end up as #1. Also, Fed has too many points to defend.

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He will most probably break 300 regardless needs to win only one match at shanghai I think that's way more than enough