World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Headline Employment numbers are 216,000 supposed jobs added in March, and the rate fell to 8.8 laughable percent. Equities are higher, the dollar is spiking higher, the Yen is making a large move lower, oil has jumped to a new high above $107 a barrel, gold and silver are lower, while most food commodities are higher after large gains yesterday (corn and oats are up considerably).

There was a small movement in the McClelland Oscillator yesterday meaning that today’s move can be expected to be large.

Ever since the G7 intervened in the currency markets to keep a lid on the Yen, the Yen has been falling and overnight into this morning has fallen considerably. The markets have correlated to this action, with markets rising as the Yen falls, and visa versa. The amount of money added by the Japanese and other nations was huge – amounting to more hot money with nothing better to do than to jack up the cost of living for humans on the planet. The response has been for the moronic central bankers to meet any and all hiccups with massive money printing. Thus everything “grows” in terms of dollars… except your wages, of course. The hot money accumulates around the globe just like cesium 137, only with a much shorter half-life requiring never ending and larger infusions to keep the appearance of “growth” continuing.

As if sky high oil prices in the face of falling demand and record inventories wasn’t enough, Hershey’s just announced that they are raising their candy prices 9.7% across the board! Oh the humanity! That’s it, I’m taking to the streets! In all seriousness, think about that – it is a huge jump and is absolutely reflective of the central banker’s policies.

More and more people are waking up to the horrid reality in Japan. Articles suggesting that the world’s largest concrete pumpers are enroute to Japan from Germany and the U.S. have led people to believe that they may be finally planning on building a sarcophagus. Yet, on the other hand, other experts believe that it won’t be possible to build one until the fuel is cooled and that may take years if not decades! While we don’t have enough information to know for sure, it is my belief that some type of containment MUST be accomplished soon. The situation is DIRE and very difficult – here’s another update from Arnie Gunderson that you must see regarding the fuel pool of reactor 4:

Sorry to those who think that you can somehow salvage this situation and just keep everything cool, but that looks impossible in my judgment. Every day without containment brings with it higher risk, and more radioactive particles into the environment, more radioactive particles into the water systems of the world which works its way up food chain. Containing these reactors needs to be humanity’s number one focus at the present time, they represent enormous risk.

HighlightsThe employment picture may not be robust yet but at least it appears to have moved up one or two notches. Payroll employment has sustained somewhat stronger gains, the unemployment rate is still below 9 percent. However, wage growth is lagging and anemic. Overall payroll employment in March gained 216,000, following a revised 194,000 increase in February and a 68,000 rise in January. The March boost came in higher than the consensus forecast for a 200,000 increase. The January and February revisions were up net 7,000. Private nonfarm payrolls posted a 230,000 increase in March, following a 240,000 rise in February. Analysts had projected a 190,000 boost for March.

The earnings picture in March is disappointing as average hourly earnings were flat, matching February. The latest posted lower than the market estimate for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek for all workers was 34.3 hours, equaling analysts' forecast.

Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate edged down to 8.8 percent in March from 8.9 percent the month before.

Today's report is mixed. The job numbers are moderately good-for this recovery. But they are still soft relative to typical recoveries. And average hourly earnings point to sluggishness in the labor market. While job numbers topped expectations, the wage figure probably put the overall report at about expectations. The labor market is improving net, but very slowly.

Note that in the face of rising price inflation here is yet another report stating that wages are flat. One reason it is flat is that the employment picture is not really improving as all the shills would have you believe – let’s examine the report, keeping in mind that it requires at least 250,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.

While the numbers are at least more stable than the previous cliff dive, this report is very misleading in a number of ways. Those not in the labor force have increased by more than 1.5 million in the past year, rising from 83.499 million, to 85.977 million. That alone more than wipes clean any supposed job creation over the past year.

Turning to the Alternate measurement tables, there is progress being shown here, with seasonally adjusted U-6 falling to 15.7%, and unadjusted falling to 16.2%:

Turning to the Birth/ Death model adjustments, we find many supposed jobs added, and the numbers this phony adjustment is adding are growing larger over time:

This report added 117,000 jobs via this model, compared to an 81,000 addition in March of last year – that’s 36,000 more than last year! And so far this year, it has added 139,000 MORE jobs this year than last!

It’s the same old story – if you can’t wow them with reality, then dazzle them with bullshit.

But here’s the real conundrum – if the economy is really improving then why are we still pouring trillions into it? And in the hologram known as the stock market, why is bad news always good news because it means more hot money, but good news is always good news too? It’s because there is simply far too much hot money out there, and the criminals have captured the markets, our politics, our rule of law, everything. Total capture has occurred, and as I stated yesterday it is very dangerous to humanity.

Turning to other economic data, most of what’s been reported this week is showing accelerating deterioration. Just released is the March Manufacturing ISM that just fell from 61.4 to 61.2. Construction spending in February was just reported to have fallen 1.4%, which is an acceleration downward from January’s -.7% print. This decline was almost 5 times worse than the expected .3% decline.

It may be April Fool's Day and the BLS may be able to fool some of the people some of the time... and you know the rest.