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CALGARY—It was barely a month ago, with allegations hanging over Rob Ford, that Stephen Harper took the highly unusual step of arranging a photo op with the Toronto mayor — on a Sunday — to pre-announce subway funding.

This prime minister just doesn’t do Sunday photo shoots with mayors. Except this one.

A masked protester watches delegates arrive at the start of the Conservative convention in Calgary on Thursday. (TODD KOROL / REUTERS)

Mike Duffy is not the only “distraction” hanging in the air Thursday as Conservatives gathered in Calgary for their mid-term convention, writes Tim Harper. (Jeff McIntosh / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

With the news Thursday that police have the infamous video that appears to show Ford smoking crack cocaine, it is fair to question Harper’s judgment in so eagerly courting his fishing and barbecue buddy, the man who gave the prime minister the big bear hug and thumb’s up on the eve of the 2011 federal election.

So, move over Mike Duffy.

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You are not the only “distraction” hanging in the air as Conservatives gathered Thursday for their mid-term convention here.

Harper and his office made the bet in September that cozying up to Ford again was okay because they had clearly determined there were no more nuclear missteps looming for a mayor whose support they wanted again in 2015.

They lost that bet.

Harper also appeared to bet that a cornered Duffy would not fight back with his own allegations and documents in the ongoing Senate debacle.

Another bet lost.

Now Harper appears to be betting that his former chief of staff, Nigel Wright, will remain quiet as the prime minister drags his name through the muck.

We’ll see.

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These are all calculations that are out of character for a man who had a reputation for playing the long game and looking beyond the immediate horizon.

Except Fantino was in Calgary calling Ford a “distraction” for a great city and agreeing that it was a sad day for Toronto.

So as Harper arrived in Calgary Thursday — at least we think he did, a photo op of his arrival was summarily cancelled — the judgment question hangs very much in the air.

It was that judgment that allowed him to appoint Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau to the Senate in the first place, and apparently his judgment to try to execute the trio before this convention, another bet lost and a move that only forced the Senate scandal to top of mind.

Harper’s judgment was also not so subtly questioned by his senior Alberta minister Jason Kenney, who was paying tribute to Wright, at the same time Harper was shredding the man’s reputation in the House of Commons.

“I know Nigel Wright to be a person of good faith, of competence, with high ethical standards. And as far as I can tell, this was an uncharacteristic lapse of judgment on his part, both the decision to write a cheque and apparently the way it was handled thereafter,” Kenney told the Calgary Herald.

This once was to have been a mid-term celebration of a Conservative majority with a look ahead to 2015.

Indeed, the last convention, following the 2011 victory, was a festive one, with Wallin emceeing and Duffy doing fawning floor interviews with delegates.

There is no celebration in Calgary, and many delegates were greeting media questions with a scowl.

Those who talked want Duffy gone, but they are also not pleased with their leader.

“A couple of weeks ago, I would have told you that Harper was good for another 15 years, but now, not so much,’’ said Hamilton-area delegate John Mykytyshyn.

“Maybe he takes a walk in the sand six months from now. Things are heading in the wrong direction for us.’’

Another delegate from Nanaimo, B.C., says the party has to air its dirty laundry and he expects Harper to deal with the Senate — and his narrative on this — head on Friday.

It’s a view echoed by Erik Scanlon of Montreal, who believes Harper got caught in the tendency to “spin” everything from within the Ottawa bubble.

“If we are the party of transparency and we want to run again on transparency, we need to be forthright about this,’’ he said.

There will be cheers in the hall when Harper speaks Friday evening. The loyalists will see to that.

But Harper is speaking beyond this convention hall and outside these walls is where the real skepticism lies.

Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1

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