Nokia is now faced with a dilemma: whether the new generation of Microsoft's mobile operating system can win the market?

Apple iPhone 2007 debut, not only conquered the consumer, but also disrupt the pattern of the mobile market. Although used to dominate the global mobile phone market for 14 years, but Nokia still defeated.

The Finnish company into a downward spiral, the constantly shrinking sales and market capitalization, plant closures, massive layoffs, and even credit rating was downgraded to junk level.

On Friday, the U.S. market research firm IDC data show that Nokia first dropped out of the top five global smart phone vendors listed. Although the company is still the world's second-largest mobile phone maker, but the non-smart phone sales for the industry as a whole has continued to shrink, profits are very meager.

Poor as this situation the helm, Stephen Elop, the new generation of Windows Phone 8 as a chance of reversing the situation, referred to as a catalyst for new products.

On Monday, Microsoft will hold a grand conference in San Francisco to launch this system. Nokia, Samsung and HTC Windows Phone 8 phones are expected to be available next month.

Windows Phone 8 before the main PC and Tablet PC market Windows 8 has just launched on Friday. This system draws on the interface of Windows Phone that Microsoft prepares unified appearance between the PC and the mobile phone - at least on Windows 8 users. The company will also simplify the development process, and facilitate the development of changes, so that the software is compatible with both the two platforms.

The analyst believes that Nokia would be described as "unsuccessful, then pay the price".

Nokia at Microsoft who under great bet if the bet does not win, the loss will be great. "Market research firm Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston said," They put all your eggs in one basket, this strategic risk high. "

In February last year, Nokia announced marriage with Microsoft to use Windows Phone Symbian and MeeGo system instead of self-development. The aim is to regain the lost ground.

Eight months later, they launched the first Windows Phone mobile phone, but did not get the recognition of consumers. Not only that, can not upgrade Windows Phone 8, Windows Phone 7 system mobile phone will soon become obsolete. Lumia phone sales from the third quarter of 400 million in the second quarter of his men slipped to 2.9 million.

"Retailers to give up the marketing and promotion, because no one is willing to become obsolete after a few months of products sold to the user." Said FIM Bank analyst Michael Shroeder, "from old Lumia devices seamless transition to Windows Phone 8 last quarter sales will certainly be much higher. "

Neil Mawston, Nokia must prove they still have the ability to continue to participate in the competition in April next year. "If Nokia is to take no less than the end of the first quarter of 2013, more than 5% of the global smartphone market, the alarm will sound." He said.

Analysts estimate that Nokia's global smartphone market share has shrunk to about 4% from 14% a year ago. At the same time, Microsoft's new project, the future is still fraught with uncertainty.

"We seem to be a little thrown off balance," said Michael Shroeder "of Nokia's future can not under any judgment. Everything depends on the market acceptance of new equipment."

Nokia said, Lumia 920 and 820 of the company's mobile phone is just the starting point of a series of the new Windows Phone 8 devices, but the initial evaluation, these products lack enough to stir the highlights of the pattern of the smart phone market.

In addition, the number of third-party applications for Windows Phone 8 is lagging far behind its competitors, and currently only 10 million, only Google and Apple, 1/6 and 1/7.

"In fact, this is a question of perception as supermarket war, if you store a lot of shelves, there are a lot of applications, consumers will choose you, and to give up some of the small-scale, application store - even if they do not will use all the applications. "Mawston said.

Analysts expect global smartphone sales this year of about 700 million. Network operators and retailers may welcome the rise of the third paragraph system, thus challenging the dominance of Apple iOS and Google Android, but the final decision on the fate of Nokia and Windows Phone 8 is the consumer.

In addition to the smartphone challenges, due to the increasing number of Chinese and Asian manufacturers cheap non-smart phone, the Nokia setback in the traditional areas of strength. Earlier this year, Samsung overtook Nokia to become the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer. Prior to this, Nokia had reached a peak share of 40% in 2008.

Feature phones are still the mainstay of Nokia's business, including its occupy the top spot in the Indian market. With a strong and extensive distribution network, as well as higher visibility in emerging markets, from paper and rubber boots enterprises emerging as the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer Nokia is perhaps not all bets are off.

Mawston theory, Nokia and Microsoft likely means of such an integrated system to be successful: Nokia's powerful network and hardware as well as Microsoft's multi-platform software, integration of home computers, mobile phones, notebook and tablet PCs.

"If they can tap this platform and take advantage of the excellent combination of hardware to be integrated into together, Microsoft and Nokia is expected to establish a very strong cooperative relationship - a bit like a combination of Batman and Robin." Mawston, said, "but from a practical point of view, whether they can run the place is still a major unknown factors.