Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

The Week That Was: 2013-11-23 (November 23, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week: Our freedom to doubt was born out of a struggle against authority in the early days of science. It was a very deep and strong struggle: permit us to question — to doubt — to not be sure. I think that it is important that we do not forget this struggle and thus perhaps lose what we have gained. Richard Feynman, Value of Science

COP-19: The 19 Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate [Change] (UNFCCC) ended in Warsaw on Saturday not with a bang but a whimper. Early reports on the conference expressed concern that the conference would not accomplish much. In that, the conference appears to have succeeded. As of writing This Week, reports are sketchy, but it appears that dozens of nations signed an agreement that they would make “contributions” towards reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. What the word “contributions” means is anyone’s guess.

The influential German news magazine Der Spiegel aptly termed the conference a Climate Circus. Though it has many clowns, the Climate Circus does not have the merriment of a real circus. According to reports, one of the highlights occurred when 132 developing nations walked out. They were demanding payments for damages from climate change, not only in the future but since the start of the industrial revolution, which roughly coincided with the ending of the Little Ice Age. This should not have been a surprise to developed nations that have spent tens of billions of US dollars on a science that is more focused on hyperbole, making alarming long-term projections from unvalidated climate models, rather than rigorously testing the models against independent data. The argument of the developing nations is very rational. If Western governments believe their claim that carbon dioxide emissions are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming, they should pay for it. According to the White House report on Federal Climate Change Expenditures, in FY 2013 alone, the US government spent $2.5 billion on the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which does not bother to rigorously test any of the assumptions the climate models against independent data. Yet, the administration expects the public to accept the authority of the USGCRP.

Another highlight occurred when green non-government organizations walked out. Perhaps they should not be allowed back in. Many are subsidized by UN and the funding countries. According to the White House report, in FY 2013, the US spend $851 million on International Assistance, which includes helping to fund the Climate Circus. The next Climate Circus is scheduled for Lima, Peru, then on to Paris for the supposed finale of a new treaty to stop global warming/climate change. Perhaps the only thing that will stop the circuses is nature’s continued refusal to obey human models of the climate. For articles on COP-19, see links under Climate Circus, for the White House report see: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/legislative_reports/fcce-report-to-congress.pdf

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Missing Heat: The Hadley-Climatic Research Unit Temperature (HadCRUT) data, the generally accepted standard for surface-air temperature data, shows little or no warming trend for over 16 years. The lack of warming has produced a number of questionable explanations on where is the missing heat. The latest is that it is hiding in the Arctic. Specifically, the HadCRUT data do not adequately cover the Arctic. Using two approaches, one a statistical technique and the second based satellite data from University of Alabama, Huntsville, (UAH) researchers Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way calculated a warming trend for the area that is not covered by HadCRUT and stated that if the Arctic data is included the data set would show a warming trend. The paper was published in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

A number of blogs effectively question the significance of these findings. However, the entire episode is contrived. The satellite data, interpreted by both UAH and Remote Sensing Systems and independently verified by measurements from weather balloons, are the most comprehensive data set available. Why bother interpreting these data for the areas not covered by HadCRUT? See links under Measurement Issues.

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The Gap: In analyzing the Cowtan & Way paper, Christopher Monckton repeats a caution given by Roy Spencer. Though it is important, the emphasis on the deficiency of the models should not be solely on the fact that the warming trend has stopped. Rather, the emphasis should be on the growing gap between model projections and observations. The entire fear of global warming was based on assertions that the model projections are valid and they should be the basis for government policy. The growing gap shows the models projections are wrong and should not be the basis for government policy. A strong El Niño year may end the current pause in warming, but the gap will likely remain. As Chip Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels assert, the models project too much warming. See links under Measurement Issues and Models Issues.

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JKF and the Moon: Former Senator and Apollo Astronaut Harrison Schmitt, who drove the “golf cart” on the moon, has a thought provoking article on the developments and thinking that led President Kennedy to challenge America to shoot for the Moon. It was in the middle of the Cold War, four years after the launch of Sputnik-1 by the Soviet Union, which prompted a number of economists, including Paul Samuelson, to state that the Soviet economy will surpass that of the US. The “impossible” mission was accomplished in a little over eight years.

Fifty years ago was a time when government-funded big science accomplished a great deal. The scientists of that era realized that in order to advance knowledge, assumptions and theories must be constantly questioned and tested against all available data. According to veterans of the NASA effort, fierce debates would erupt over the proper way to proceed and who was right. Unfortunately, such an attitude is lacking in today’s government-funded big climate science. Please see link under Other Scientific News

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What Makes a Skeptic: The blog Scottish Sceptic [UK spelling] asks: “Why do sceptics put up with cyber bullying?” The insults are commonplace and even come from prominent officials. In another post, the blog quotes some of the insults. The blog suggests skeptics are intellectual loners – not social [loners] – and do not need group support, or group think.

As illustrated in the Quote of the Week: modern science was developed by those who had the ability to think alone, the ability to challenge ideas, and to challenge one another. Fierce debates occurred in the development of Natural Philosophy – now called Science. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

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SCC: On her blog, Judith Curry has a discussion on the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). As with SEPP, she concludes that the government contrived index is a surrogate for a national carbon tax. It has the burden of a tax to the public, with no revenues to the government. Though not mentioning him by name, her discussion includes the excellent study by Craig Idso, “The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide:” published by SPPI. Curry suggests that the uncertainty involved in the SCC is colossal, and she is not convinced we have confidence even in the sign – either a net cost or a net benefit. See link under Seeking a Common Ground.

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Climate Funding: According to reports, EU climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard announced that “20% of the EU’s budget will go towards fighting climate change,” which has been occurring for hundreds of millions of years. No doubt some in the EU believe that this dedication will be followed by other international leaders who want to be considered climate heroes. President Obama may wish to be in this group, but good luck with the US House of Representatives, thankfully. See link under Funding Issues.

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Number of the Week: 0.42%. Following up on the paper by Cowtan & Way, Werner Brozek analyzed satellite data produced by RSS, the entity independent of UAH, for the extent of coverage Northern Hemisphere not covered by the satellite observations. He finds that the RSS data cover all of the Northern Hemisphere up to 82.5 degrees N Latitude. From this he calculates that the area of the Northern Hemisphere not covered represents 0.42% of the globe.

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ARTICLES:

For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.

“Convenient assumptions should not be turned prematurely into “facts,” nor uncertainties and ambiguities suppressed…Anyone can write a model: the challenge is to demonstrate its accuracy and precision…Otherwise, the scientific debate is controlled by the most articulate, colorful, or adamant players. (emphasis added)”Carl Wunsch

[SEPP Comment: In issues of science, it is not a matter of what the public expects, it is a matter of what can be scientifically calculated. Fred Singer devastated the IPCC thinking in an article carried in the last TWTW, which, among other things, exposes the argument from ignorance.]

Ten new hard-coal power stations, or 7,985 megawatts, are scheduled to start producing electricity in the next two years,

Generating electricity by burning coal currently makes a profit of 9.16 euros a megawatt hour, compared with a loss of 19.31 euros a megawatt hour from gas, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on next-year German power prices.

[SEPP Comment: Link to the survey states it is a Preliminary Accepted Version. More importantly, it is a survey employed by the leadership of the AMS and an entity at GMU, who have been trying to convince members to toe the party line.]

Only the Europeans and a few others remain devoted to significant expenses for tiny outcomes. The EU is committed to cutting carbon emissions by 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. This will, according to an averaging of all the available energy-economic models, cost $250 billion per year. By the end of the century (after a total cost of more than $20 trillion) this will reduce the projected temperature increase by a mere 0.05°C.

[SEPP Comment: Disappointing to see such a speculative article published by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Dependent computer models that have not been validated and are contradicted by expanding Antarctic sea ice.]

Stripping away the complexity, the net effect of subsidies for renewables and taxes on CO2 emissions is to offer an average price for electricity generated from the main sources of renewable energy – wind and wood chips – that is at least double the equivalent pool price of electricity which is determined by the cost of running gas-fired generating plants.

German firms at risk if Berlin does not revise energy law-EU Commissioner

This new paper does not affect the fact that the temperature databases, with their own allowances for data-free regions, show no warming for 16-years, or at the very least no warming for about 95% of the globe for 16-years.

[SEPP Comment: Further exposing the false claims that increased CO2 is destroying shellfish. The problem was limited to big tanks containing oyster larvae of non-native Pacific oysters from Japan that cannot reproduce in the cold waters of the Pacific Northwest.]

“our results confirm that the direct biochemical impact of the rapid increase in Ca [atmospheric CO2 concentrations] over the last 30 years on terrestrial vegetation is an influential and observable land surface process.” Or to put it more directly, the greening of the Earth continues, courtesy of the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content.

[SEPP Comment: It is amazing the number of people who will advocate major policy based on polls asking trite questions. The lack of knowledge about global warming is due to the failure of the climate establishment to properly conduct scientific investigation and should not be the basis for policy.]

[SEPP Comment: The quantities are not presented, and the dollar amounts are suspicious. However, if true, how much more would be available if Washington did not stop or slow down oil and gas production in federally controlled lands and waters. See link immediately above.]

In depth analysis… The stock market flirts with 16,000 and the right-wing can’t say it enough that it’s because of money printing by the Federal Reserve, wrong. But there is one problem with them keeping interest rates so low, it’s fueling Dark Money lending. Non-banks are lending hedge fund money to businesses that can’t qualify for bank loans. So much of it is going on there is speculation what sort of problems will be encountered if there’s a ‘retake the White House’ crash in 2016, it surely won’t be anything good.
Some economists predict that the average family will spend less this year for the holidays. The National Retail Federation is predicting a 4.6% increase in total sales volume however. Inventory has been built up in anticipation, so that would be a double smack if the goods don’t move. Excess inventory requires larger cutbacks than what you get from weak sales.
Check out your local Wal~Mart to see if they need Thanksgiving food. Photographs leaked out of a food drive conducted in the employee break room of a Walmart store in Cleveland, OH for workers who couldn’t afford Thanksgiving dinner. I worked at a Wal~Mart in the early eighties and we did that, in between polygraphs. Poor feeding the poor in the belly of corporate greed. While the top four Walmart heirs to Sam’s fortune combined wealth is $133 billion according to Forbes 400 and the rest of the Walmart heirs add up to $80b.
Wal~Mart is having trouble meeting sales goals. The newest excuse in the laundry list is that the customers are fearful of Obamacare costs. Reality is that their business model is destroying the economy and their target demographic simply cannot afford to shop there much. Folks are too poor, so they go to the (booming) dollar stores or thrift stores and the food bank. Mostly they just don’t buy much. That is what having the Environmental Defense Fund in the office requiring suppliers to cut emissions and pollutants will do too, all while having the grandson, Sam Rawlins Walton on the EDF board.
Associates and service workers must still find enough to eat. Sage advice in the McDonald’s employees website, “To keep from feeling hungry break up your available food and spread it out.” Wal~Mart hungry at least get a food drive, Ronald McDonald doesn’t even bother.
McD’s does have tips on how employees can get government assistance, no mentions that a business with billions in profits should be able to feed its slaves. McDonald’s could double servers wages and it would only add 17¢ to the menu. Not only would they eat better but this would stimulate the economy. But workers having enough to eat isn’t in the billionaires game plan. The point of high unemployment is driving down wages so people will not only work for food but also be willing to kill those who oppose billionaires in order to have enough. “I can hire half the working class to kill the other half.” Jay Gould, 19th century railroad baron. And there you have it, the conservative way. Work will set you free.
New unemployment claims dropped more than expected last week. Down 21k to 323 k and near a record low since the Bush crash. That is the same level as prior to the Tea sedition trying to end us by pushing us over the default cliff. It has been revealed that hundreds of million dollars were spent on contingency plans by major banks and ‘war rooms’ were set up to try to hold things together had the tea bag burst. Markets have reacted well to the improved job outlook despite the Fed taper tantrum talk crowd. The disaster capitalists insist we should all run off in sheer panic immediately when the Fed stops printing because the economy is improved. People are catching on how stupid it is.
Now that right wing craziness can’t stop Presidential appointments there is greater certainty Janet Yellen will be Fed chair. Yellen had a better record in response to the financial crisis and with less uncertainty about who will be in charge that gives us a double bonus.
Republicans had been blocking POTUS appointments for the National Labor Relations Board forcing him to do recess appointments in order to have a functioning agency. Now that it’s going finally the NLRB is bringing action against Wal~Mart for blatant Union busting. Good news for the long fledgling union movements in the fast food and big box retailers.
The Gov could work much more effectively now that nominee blocking is over. Not only will top positions be filled in a timely manner but also the pressure is eased to reappoint Bush-Cheney cronies just to keep the lights on. Competent people can now work to eliminate the corrupt ones in government.
Being able to fill Appeals Court positions should enable a shift away from the hard right corporate rulings coming down the pike lately. The filibuster crack down doesn’t include Supreme Court nominees so there’s still a danger of them ruling from the top.
The noise machine is claiming that Obama is again rigging the employment numbers, they claim to have an insider stating this was done before the election. The unemployment percentage rate is based on a large household phone survey. The Employer Establishment Surveys give the most quoted number of new jobs, or like during the Bush crash losing 800k/month. The households survey is considered more accurate but the media ignore this. All of the raw data is available. The entire Dept. of Labor Statistics would have to be complicit to fake the numbers without getting caught. But then ditto heads already believe everyone is part of a vast conspiracy.

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November 24, 2013 9:59 pm

RMB

missing heat. The reason the heat is missing is that heat will not penetrate the surface of water. Radiation will penetrate, heat will not. Try firing a hair drier or better still a heat gun at the surface of water and you will see what I mean. AGW is a physical impossibility because of surface tension.

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November 25, 2013 12:52 am

rogerknights

[SEPP Comment: Speaking out against some tenants of the environmental industry, earns the shunning by their former collogues.]

Two typos in the above. Also, Jeffrey Sach should be Sachs.

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November 25, 2013 1:07 am

William Astley

The Warsaw climate change conference, COP-19, (it is unbelievable that there has been 19 meetings) was a circus if your idea of a circus is meeting to discuss how developed countries have waste trillions of dollars on scams that have had almost no effect on the increase in CO2 emissions and should waste additional billions by sending the money to developing countries after skimming by the UN bureaucracy. The AGW movement had nothing to do with science and the warming in the last 70 years had nothing to do with the increase in CO2.
Observations support the assertion that the sun will be spotless early 2014 (the media is starting to pick up the solar anomaly story again). Planetary cooling caused by the abrupt change to the solar magnetic cycle has started and will become news worthy in 2014. The gig is up for the warmists. The only unresolved issue is will atmosphere CO2 drop when the planet cools thereby validating Salby’s hypothesis? http://news.yahoo.com/calm-solar-cycle-prompts-questions-impact-earth-213912384.html
The next shoe to drop will be the sudden unexplained changes to the geomagnetic field. http://news.yahoo.com/european-satellites-launched-eye-earths-magnetic-field-202607407–sector.htmlhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFMGP44A..02S
Historical observations document ~1100 km change in the position of the North Magnetic Pole (NMP) over the last century. This movement has accelerated over the last few decades to an astonishing 40 km/yr and along with the diminishing intensity of the dipole field has led to speculation of imminent reversal or excursion.
Is the geodynamo process intrinsically unstable?http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/416/

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November 25, 2013 1:46 am

Bloke down the pub

Don’t know if this has been pointed out before but the title of the photo at the top of the page appears to be missing a ‘t’.[Well, it’s a “stand alone” image file not editable from WUWT resources, but thank you for noticing. Illustrates the power of international, 24-7 open review of all scientific publications and sources, doesn’t it? …. Mod]

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November 25, 2013 3:35 am

Bruce Cobb

I for one am glad to hear the IPCC is looking for “contributions” for their climate scam fund. The US national debt now stands at $17 trillion, so, instead of opening our wallets as we pass by the climate bell-ringers looking all folorn with their climate kettles, we will unfortunately have to simply smile and wave as we pass by. Our creditors come first, I’m afraid.

If developing nations want developed nations to pay for climate damages, then they need to ante up and pay for all the benefits they have received from the things that caused the supposed damages. That would only be fair. They need to return every dollar they have ever made from tourism. They need to pay a royalty on every phone call ever made, and every packet sent/received from the internet. They need to pay a royalty on every piece of technology ever purchased in the history of their country. If they have received aid from developed countries, they need to return that as well. If they are willing to pay for the benefits they have received, I’m more than happy to pay them for their damages.

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November 25, 2013 6:17 am

David

I note several references to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).
I’m surprise they didn’t include ‘Adaptation’ into this title – then it would be USGCRAP….
Ah – yes – I see how this could be misinterpreted…

Actually, instead of charging the developing nations royalties, all we really need to do is estimate the amount of wealth produced by each developing country since western industrialization. Then we estimate the amount of wealth each country would have produced if the country had not had access to computers, cars, phones, electricity, running water, trade with developed nations, etc. We subtract the two. Once the developing nation has paid their bill, then we can talk about compensation for climate damages.

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November 25, 2013 6:29 am

KevinM

Woke up to 20F in Raleigh this morning (weather, not climate) and said to myself for the thousandth time, “Who are the these azzhats that want to stop global warming?”

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November 25, 2013 7:10 am

dccowboy

I’m very amused that one of the major triumphs of the Conference was touting how they had improved ‘gender representation’ amongst the delegates.

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November 25, 2013 7:23 am

dp

If the heat were in the arctic I do believe that would show up in the rate of change of ice cover in the ice extent charts. The rate is the pretty much the same year after year. What does change is when the changes happen. The length of the seasons are changing, but once the changes begin the rates are consistent. If the arctic were warming there would be a rate of change of the rate of change (that is not a typo) – ice up would take longer, thaw would happen faster.

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November 25, 2013 7:40 am

Mr Green Genes

Of course all the heat is in the Arctic. Heat rises doesn’t it? And the Arctic is at the top of the earth, isn’t it?
Seems obvious to me.
(/sarc – better to be safe than sorry!)

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