A study of French energy experts predicts that France’s plan to reduce its share of nuclear power generation will take three times as long as the government proposes. The French government also aims to decrease the share of nuclear power in its electricity mix from 76% (current) to 50% by 2025.

The energy market experts expect the share of nuclear power in the French electricity mix, on average, to shift from approximately three quarters at present to approximately two thirds in 10 years, and to half in 30 years. Assuming a linear evolution over time, it would therefore take France about three times as long to reach the share of nuclear power intended by the current government, according to the first edition of the Energy Market Barometer from the Grenoble Ecole de Management.

The declining share of nuclear power will primarily be replaced by renewable energy sources (other than hydropower). These are expected to increase from a current share of 5% to 13% in 10 years, and to 24% in 30 years. The share of hydropower in the French electricity mix is expected to remain fairly constant. The share of natural gas is expected to increase steadily, particularly over the next 10 years. It will nonetheless remain below 10% over the course of the next three decades, the report says. Finally, coal continues to play a rather marginal role, and it will even go as far as losing half its market share in the long term.

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