The Oscars are over; Sundance is but a memory; SXSW has been overrun with musos. The film industry's eyes, forever trained forward, are now squinting against the glare of the south of France and the Cote d'Azur: Cannes is on its way. As ever, the speculation has already begun as to which films the festival will tie up for its official selection: Cannes's bespoke mix of esoteric auteurism, finger-poking controversy and shameless glitz. We know the Grace Kelly biopic Grace of Monaco will be there (it was announced as opening film back in January) and we're fairly sure the extended cut of Nymphomaniac Volume II has a spot reserved for it. But other than that, it's anyone's guess. Here are our predictions for the 15 most likely. AP

Far from the Madding Crowd

Danish director Thomas Vinterberg ups-sticks for 19th-century Wessex with his adaptation of the Thomas Hardy classic, memorably shot by John Schlesinger back in 1967. Vinterberg's version stars Carey Mulligan as headstrong Bathsheba Everdene, while Michael Sheen, Tom Sturridge and Matthias Schoenarts play the contrasting suitors who jockey for her attention. The director was last in Cannes competition with The Hunt back in 2013 and looks well placed to make the cut again. XB

The Blue Room

Puckish Mathieu Amalric caught the pundits by surprise when he scooped the Cannes director prize for his 2010 burlesque caper On Tour. The Blue Room, based on a Georges Simenon novel, spins a psychological thriller about the shadowy life of two small-town adulterers. Amalric stars alongside Lea Drucker, and calls the shots from the sidelines. Barring disaster, expect this to be one of several French films in the main competition. XB

Two Days, One Night

Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardenne. Photograph: Matt Carr/Getty

Cannes can never get enough of the Dardennes brothers: they've won the Palme d'Or twice, best screenplay and the grand jury prize. Filmed, as always, in the Belgian small town the Dardennes call home, Two Days One Night is a little starrier than usual, with Marion Cotillard in the lead role, as a woman threatened with losing her job. It's about as nailed-on as it gets for competition selection. AP

Magic in the Moonlight

Colin Firth in Magic in the Moonlight PR

Woody Allen remains a hero at Cannes, an arena largely untroubled by accusation and counter-accusation surrounding his private life. Rather wisely, though, his films don't usually end up in competition – Cannes isn't that myopic – though that may change after the critical boost Blue Jasmine has given him. Plus he's gone the extra mile with his Riviera-set crime comedy Magic in the Moonlight – short of calling it I Love the South of France So Please Show My Film, Allen couldn't have made his intentions any plainer. Cannes will no doubt be delighted to oblige. AP

How to Catch a Monster

He came to the Croisette with Drive and returned with Only God Forgives. This year, the forecast suggests, Ryan Gosling will be back in Cannes again with How to Catch a Monster, a lurid-sounding fantasy about a mother and son's trip to a nightmarish Atlantis. Please note that Gosling does not actually appear in How to Catch a Monster. The film, instead, is his writing and directing debut. Will it mark the moment in which takes his place among the red-carpet auteurs, or overreaches himself and winds up all at sea? XB

Maps to the Stars

Cronenberg at the photocall for Cosmopolis in Cannes. Photo by Rex Features Rex Features/Rex Features

In Robert Pattinson, David Cronenberg has seemingly found a potent new collaborator, and following Cosmopolis two years ago, this looks more than likely to fetch up on the Croisette. Taken from a script by Bruce "Wild Palms" Wagner, Maps to the Stars is apparently about "the convoluted world of shallow, selfish celebrities and their minions, all of whom are about to be manipulated and destroyed by the young woman who literally represents the fruit of their twisted machinations." Joining Pattinson for Cronenberg's special brand of lynx-eyed eccentricity – and also presumably on the Palais red carpet – are Julianne Moore, John Cusack and Mia Wasikowska. (AP)

Jimmy's Hall

Ken Loach at Cannes in 2012. Photograph: Yves Herman/REUTERS

Surely Cannes won't miss the chance to select what is being billed as Ken Loach's final feature before his retirement to documentaries? The story of an Irish communist returning home after a decade-long exile to reopen his dance hall, Jimmy's Hall is a product of the fruitful collaboration between Loach and writer Paul Laverty; this will be their 14th film together, if you include the shorties in Tickets and 11'09''01 - September 11. It sounds like it's on a similar scale to The Wind That Shakes the Barley; another Palme would of course be a great result. AP

Clouds of Sils Maria

Olivier Assayas. Photograph: Jeff Vespa/WireImage

Judged on the bald plotline, the latest film from mercurial Olivier Assayas could be the shotgun wedding of Bergman's Persona and All About Eve. Juliette Binoche stars as Maria Enders, a fading actor thrown into crisis when a younger model (Chole Grace Moretz) stars in a remake of her most famous role. Kristen Stewart sits in the wings as Maria's supportive PA. Assayas bounces between the festivals. His last film (Something in the Air) played at Venice, though he was in Cannes as recently as 2010 with his superb, made-for-TV thriller Carlos. XB

Birdman

Alejandro González Iñarritu helped kickstart the "buena-onda" of Latin-American cinema with his electrifying Amores Perros back in 2001. He last came to festival with the soupy Biutiful back in 2010 and appears to have all but booked himself into this year's competition. Birdman is an English-language satire on fame and its consequences, starring Michael Keaton as a middle-aged actor, struggling to shake off his old superhero role and mount a Broadway adaptation of a Raymond Carver short story. Edward Norton, Emma Stone and Naomi Watts round out the cast. XB

Three Hearts

Cannes always likes to have a decent fistful of homegrown films among the international glitterati, and this one – featuring eternal Croisette favourites Charlotte Gainsbourg and Catherine Deneuve – is well-positioned to pick up a slot. Plot details are thin on the ground – it apparently concerns two actress sisters raised by their mother (Deneuve) – and at one point Lea "Blue is the Warmest Colour" Seydoux was supposed to be cast as one of the sisters, but she is no longer cited in the cast list (Chiara Mastroianni, we assume, has taken over). AP

Knight of Cups

Some cups and a knight. Photograph: PR and Sipa Press / Rex Features

Having preserved a frosty hauteur for decades, Terrence Malick is now positively Woody Allen-esque in the way he's now just churning them out. As usual, Malick runs a near-leak-free operation so little is known about this one, other than it is about "a man reflecting on a series of relationships with beautiful women". We do know who the man is – Christian Bale – and a few of the women (Natalie Portman, Cate Blanchett, Imogen Poots). Other than that, we just hope it's more Tree of Life than To the Wonder. But with Malick's propensity to miss deadlines, we're not putting the house on finding out in Cannes. It'd be nice though. AP

Winter Sleep

Turkish auteur Nuri Bilge Ceylan is a Cannes perennial – every film he has made since 2002's Distant has been picked for competition and won a big award, so chances are this one will too. We know, courtesy of a promotional film for the digital camera they used that it was shot in Anatolia, and that it's "about humans". Ceylan is playing his cards close to his chest; we'll no doubt know more in May. AP

A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

Songs From The Second Floor PR

Roy Andersson is the eccentric Swedish director whose Songs from the Second Floor scored a jury prize at Cannes back in 2000. Pigeon is only his second feature since then (after 2007's You, the Living), and according to Andersson's own website forms the final part of the trilogy. Expect more melancholy, absurdist tableaux populated by glumly bizarre grotesques. Andersson himself says he's looking for a spring premiere, so a Croisette visit is very much on the cards. AP

Cemetery of Kings

Thai director Apichatpong Weerasethakul is set to return to Cannes in triumph with his first feature since winning the Palme with Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recount His Past Lives in 2010. Cemetery of Kings looks to be an equally mysterious, elegantly surreal fable: it's apparently about a unit of soldiers who are overcome by sleeping sickness in a small Thai town. The Hollywood Reporter tells us that "strange dreams, phantoms, a mysterious river creature and tangled romances all play a part in the evocative narrative". AP

Maleficent

Angelina Jolie in Maleficent. Photograph: Disney

Naturally, there is more chance of Cinderella retaining her slipper than Maleficent cropping up among the Palme d'Or contenders. But wait. The festival organisers are not averse to handing an out-of-competition to the likes of Pirates of the Caribbean or Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, presumably in the interests of a little star wattage. Billed as Disney's revisionist version of Sleeping Beauty, this live action spectacular features Angelina Jolie as the "mistress of all evil" and Elle Fanning as luckless Princess Aurora. Its 30 May release date means its perfectly positioned for a debut at Cannes. XB