The Curse of Politically Engineered Research

On November 20th 2009 information was leaked from the
Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia , casting
serious doubt on climate research carried out within this
institution and other institutions around the world.

While
the vintage media has generally not reported this event, it
has erupted on the internet and led to
senior researchers temporarily standing down from their
positions, as investigations commence both within the
institutions concerned and by others outside.

Whether one accepts to whatever degree or rejects the
theory of the human influence on climate, is not the major
question. The central question is whether or not the
researchers involved have firstly, carried out this work to
professionally acceptable standards, and secondly, whether
the research they have done to date can be trusted.

The
Pew Research Center poll results released a month prior to
the events at the University of East Anglia, found that
Americans in answer to the question - “Is there solid
evidence the earth is warming?”, found that in April 2008,
71% said yes, but that by October 2009 this had slumped to
57%. In answer to the question whether people thought
warming was caused by human activity, the support over this
period had fallen from 47% to 36%.

The importance of this
event, now referred to as “Climategate”, cannot be
overstated.

The reason for this, is because the leaking of
this information from the University of East Anglia, has
provided a long overdue “shock” to the public regarding
the dangers of politically engineered and financed research
– and the risks and consequences of perverse public policy
outcomes.

Should those involved be found to have failed,
institutions and peoples reputations will be wrecked.

Mr Stephen’s of
the Wall Street Journal states that last year Exxon Mobil
provided some $US7 million (0.0027% of its net profits of
$US47 billion) to climate research, sprinkled around a good
number of institutions.

In contrast however, governments
have been exceeding generous with their taxpayer’s money.

According to this Wall Street Journal article, the
European Commission’s most recent appropriation for
climate research comes to nearly $US3 billion, and that’s
not including funds from the EU’s member governments. In
the United States, some $US1.3 billion to NASA’s climate
efforts, $US400 million to NOAA’s and another $US300
million to the National Science Foundation. Even the
seriously stressed State of California with 12%
unemployment, is piling $US600 million in to its climate
research initiatives.

According to the research by the
HSBC, the above figures are small compared with the
estimated $US94 billion that will be spent globally by
Governments on “green initiatives”, such as ethanol and
other alternative energy schemes. That most of these schemes
are likely counterproductive and in economic and social
terms, destructive, appears to be beside the
point.

Consider for example, the impact of ethanol
production on global food prices.

Politically engineered
research has led to perverse outcomes in many areas of our
lives. As just one example, what we should and should not
eat, as Tom Naughton explains superbly, within the video Fat
Head (his entertaining take on climate research as an encore).

Those involved within the urban development sector, such
as the writer, have long been bombarded with politically
engineered research throughout our working lives. So blatant
in fact, that the writer has sometimes referred to it as
“the sun rises in the west research”. To illustrate the
extraordinarily poor standards of local government land use
research in New Zealand (common throughout the Anglo world)
it is suggested the recent report Housing Stock
and Housing Demand by the Tauranga City Council be read
closely. With a population of slightly more than 100,000,
rather amusingly, this small Local Authority is experiencing
difficulty in coping with growth.

Bear in mind while
reading this Report, that Wendell Cox of Demographia, St
Louis, Illinois, USA and the writer, authored on an unpaid
basis, the first Demographia International Housing
Affordability Survey in early 2005 through to the 5th Annual Edition released January
this year.

This Annual Survey of housing affordability, is
based on the very simple Median Multiple (median house price
divided by gross annual median household income) and covers
the 265 major metropolitan areas (regional this year in the
case of the United Kingdom – due to that country’s slow
data release) of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom,
Ireland, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Much of what
I have written these past five years, can
be summed up within one simple paragraph –

For
metropolitan areas to rate as “affordable” and ensure
that housing bubbles are not triggered, housing prices
should not exceed three times gross annual household
incomes. To allow this to occur, new starter housing of an
acceptable quality to the purchasers, with associated
commercial and industrial development, must be allowed to be
provided on the urban fringe at 2.5 times the gross annual
median household income of that urban market. The fringe is
the only supply or inflation vent for an urban market. The
critically important Development Ratios for this new fringe
starter housing, should be 17 – 23% serviced lot / section
cost – the balance the actual housing construction.
Ideally through a normal building cycle, the Median Multiple
should move from a Floor Multiple of 2.3 through a Swing
Multiple of 2.5 to a Ceiling Multiple of 2.7 – to ensure
maximum stability and optimal medium and long term
performance of the residential construction sector.

So
the staff and elected representatives of New Zealand’s
Tauranga City Council, and others of course, have had five
years to follow up researching and exploring workable
solutions to this serious issue.

The Tauranga Council
Housing Report commences by discussing the Demographia
Survey, but fails to note that the United States is included
within these Annual Survey’s. No small point - as all the
“affordable” (at or below 3 times household incomes)
metropolitan areas are within the United States and
Canada.

Indeed – the reason why Wendell Cox and the
writer got these Annual Demographia Surveys underway, was to
attempt to explain these important issues in the simplest
and clearest terms possible.

This small Local Authority of
Tauranga in New Zealand has a problem, in that its housing
has bubbled out to 6.6 times household earnings. Following
the discussion of the Demographia Surveyv within its Housing
Report, it then falls over in to a convoluted and illogical
defense of its current controlling smart growth / urban
intensification failures. Little wonder the recommendations
are for further interventions.

It is clear in reading this
Housing Report, that the authors of it do not have an
elementary understanding of housing market dynamics. It is
not altogether surprising urban planners have a poor
understanding, when it is realized that the economics
profession, generally, is only now beginning to understand the real structural dynamics of
housing markets as the writer explained earlier this year.

The
question that needs to be asked is – what do all these
unfortunate examples have in common? It seems very clear
that they are not being promoted to actually solve the
problems or perceived problems.

The answer is that those
promoting these “solutions” are simply in the game of
expanding their own control and influence. Protecting and
expanding their empires. Nothing more – nothing
less.

C. Northcote Parkinson explained the
reality and nature of bureaucracies, with great wit and
perception within his book Parkinson's Law over half a century ago.
Yet – most people have little understanding of it and
are “reaping the consequences”.

As citizens and their
employers, it is our responsibility to turn the tables on
the out of control political elites, so that they know
clearly that their duty is to serve
us.

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