NFL Career Length and Average Age versus Average Life Expectancy

On Tuesday, I wrote about Roger Goodell’s statements about the average career in the NFL being closer to 6 years. At the time, I wasn’t sure how the NFLPA was exactly figuring that it was 3.5 years. I had inquired but hadn’t gotten a final response when I wrote the original post. Since I wrote that, I have been provided the numbers by the NFLPA. Now, I am more convinced that the correct number for the average career length in the NFL is closer to 6.0 years.

Here is the data provided by the NFLPA, which is based on the average number of accrued seasons for all players on an active roster on opening day of the 2010 season:

ACCRUED SEASONS

# of PLAYERS

TOTAL %

Column1

0

368

19.5%

0

1

287

15.2%

287

2

243

12.9%

486

3

205

10.9%

615

4

185

9.8%

740

5

138

7.3%

690

6

111

5.9%

666

7

102

5.4%

714

8

74

3.9%

592

9

59

3.1%

531

10

41

2.2%

410

11

24

1.3%

264

12

19

1.0%

228

13

13

0.7%

169

14

9

0.5%

126

15

5

0.3%

75

16

1

0.1%

16

17

1

0.1%

17

18

2

0.1%

36

19

1

0.1%

19

6681

TOTAL

1888

3.54

The NFLPA number represents the average experience level at a particular point in time; the NFL number represents the average career length. Both numbers are derived from actual player data. I know that they are using different periods, but that’s not the issue. I’m fairly confident that you would get similar numbers if you measured each way for the same period. So how is it possible that we have a difference of over 2 years?

It’s because of decaying populations, and because average age isn’t the same as average life expectancy.

Let’s assume, in arguendo, that life expectancy rates stay the same whether you were born in 2006 or 1946 (Obviously, we know this isn’t true as life expectancy continues to increase, but play along). If we took a snapshot in 2011, we would find a whole lot more 5 year olds than 65 year olds. This is true even if the 5 year olds, many of whom will be future 65 year olds, will experience mortality rates at the same rate as those born in 1946 did.

That’s how a population where the median person is expected to live to 77 can have a median age that is half that number at any particular point in time. In our analogy, the NFLPA number is average age; the NFL number is life expectancy. So I feel it is inaccurate to say that the average NFL career is 3.5 years. That would be like saying that the average life in the United States is 37 years.

The proper way to cite the two numbers is to say that the average NFL player at any point in time has 3.5 years of experience, and that the average career lasts about 6 years. The NFLPA numbers, by the way, are nearly identical (and calculated by roughly the same method) as the number I had at the bottom of that previous post where I looked at when draft classes peak. I said:

The highest value comes in years three and four. (so in this sense, the median contributor in an NFL season has about 3.5 years of service time). Roughly 62% of the contributors in a given NFL season will be in their first five years in the league.

The fact that I got a roughly similar number as the NFLPA’s 2010 number using data from 1970-1994 draft classes, using an admittedly much cruder method (they have very specific data on who was on a roster to start the season, and accrued season data, I’m just using final year compared to draft year for players recording enough statistics to be counted), shows that the experience level has remained pretty constant over time.

What the NFLPA’s data (along with mine) does show is that the average player in a given season would be on their so-called “rookie” contract within the first four years in the league. In that light, it’s easy to see that even though the sides may be able to agree in principle on reducing some high end contracts, the fact that the NFL will not budge on career lengths while making across the board cuts is a sticking point. While the media talking point is JaMarcus Russell, the truth is it would reduce salary for over half the labor force in a given season.

I got an email from a reader who didn’t think I adequately explained my statement that “[t]he truth is that the average NFL player good enough to make a roster will barely get to that second contract.” If I wasn’t clear, I was referencing the NFL proposal of four year deals for every non-first rounder that I discussed earlier in the piece, and not the current status of late rounders, who can be on shorter deals depending on individual negotiations. Using that 1993-2002 data, here are the percentage of players in each round who would have gotten to a 2nd deal, if we use the NFL rookie wage scale proposal of mandatory 5 year deals for first round picks, and 4 year deals for all other draftees.

Round

2nd Contract

1st

82.3%

2nd

80.8%

3rd

66.6%

4th

55.6%

5th

54.3%

6th

48.1%

7th

42.2%

All Rounds

61.5%

After 1st

58.0%

After 2nd

53.3%

After 3rd

49.8%

If the NFL’s position on contract lengths does not change before the parties reach agreement, then almost 40% of all players will not get to second contracts after working at a greatly reduced salary (relative to market value), and that number is 50% once you get to round 4 and beyond. I expect we would see more players not get to that second deal if the wage scale was instituted also, since young talent would be even more of a discount. When you view it in that light, rather then just complain about JaMarcus Russell, you can see why maybe the rank and file of the players need to stand their ground against major features of the NFL’s rookie wage scale proposal.

I am at work, but I am actually working to try to get out of here early.

Babar 2.0

I’m pretty sure I am the only one working today.

I am at work, but I am certainly not working.

http://twitter.com/ButtersBC Butters Brickowski

I’m pretty sure I am the only one working today.

I took the day off since there are 10 Fridays until I’m terminated and I possess 11 days of vacation…so long five day work weeks

Good work again showing why when you really think about it the rookie wage scale benefits nobody other than the owners

arkbadger

I am at work, but I am certainly not working.

same here. and pretty much no chance of me leaving early either. I wish I would have stopped at the liquor store at lunch though. this afternoon would be the perfect time to drink some boxed wine out of a diet coke can, Always Sunny style.

http://twitter.com/Cleetsauce cleet

I am at work, but I am certainly not working.

TSH

Babar 2.0

By the way…based on this title, I assumed we were getting a report on the life expectancy of NFL players based on career length.

Feel free to do this one…and break it down by position as well.

Jason Lisk

By the way…based on this title, I assumed we were getting a report on the life expectancy of NFL players based on career length.

Feel free to do this one…and break it down by position as well.

I would gladly do it if I had a database of death dates.

Babar 2.0

I would gladly do it if I had a database of death dates.

I have always found wikipedia to be accurate.

http://twitter.com/Citylife80 Ballz

We’re only doing 2 rounds, right?

http://laugh-o.blogspot.com starkweather

I have always found wikipedia to be accurate.

Somebody has never come across one of my edits

bevo5k

The NFLPA is using a weighted average (number of accrued seasons * # of players) divided by total number of players. If you follow TexansChick’s specious argument that players with no accrued seasons should not count (because, well, she said so and that’s her prerogative), the weighted average increases from 3.54 to 4.4 years, or roughly an entire season. Shocking display of math!

Following TexansChick’s specious argument, we should eliminate the players with 15 or more accrued seasons because they represent about 1% of all players. They are anomalies. The weighted average drops from 4.4 to 4.3. Another shocking display of math.

To argue for the NFL’s position of six years means you either lack a grasp of basic mathematics and statistics or have a turnip for a brain. Of all players in the league, using the above data set, 58% had accrued three seasons or less. The odds that a player will get to six years is small.

Without the mortality of the players career, you cannot determine what those odds are. For example, let’s say that 50% of the players with zero accrued seasons will survive to the following year. That is, half the players will have one year of accrued seasons for the following season.

Further, let’s say that 50% of the players with 1 accrued season will survive to the following year. Hence, a player with zero accrued seasons has a 25% (.5 * .5) of getting to play two seasons.

Using the data set as a guide, a player with 0 accrued seasons has 56% of getting to three accrued seasons and a 50% chance of getting to five accrued seasons. That’s not average; that’a rough probability. Again, this dataset does not lend itself for a better probability determination.

Of those players getting to six accrued seasons, using the above data, most are likely to be first and second round draft picks. The majority of the players of the players, though, are third round and beyond. Someone with patience and interest could take the second column, number of players, and figure out by percentage, how many of them were taken by what round to figure out the probability of a first or second round draft gets to six accrued seasons compared to draft picks from the remaining rounds.