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Updates: Intense storms may unleash flash flooding and damaging winds through this evening

3:20 p.m. – Watching main line of storms developing out to west

The
main line of thunderstorms of concern is now near Interstate 81 and
should passing through that area over the next 90 minutes or so, before
affecting the metro region between 5 and 10 p.m. (details provided
below).

But we still have isolated storms
around, one between Reston and Potomac, and large cluster in southern
Charles County which has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning through 4
p.m. This particular storm has a lot of lightning and may also some
pockets of damaging winds.

1:52 p.m. – Severe thunderstorm watch issued, runs until 10 p.m.

The
National Weather Weather has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for all
of the region. It warns storms may produce damaging wind gusts up to 65
mph and a few instances of large hail about to 1.5 inches across. A
watch means conditions are favorable for severe storms, but not a
guarantee. But if a warning is issued for your location, that means a
storm is imminent or occurring and that you should seek shelter in a
strong building.

In addition to the wind and hail threat, flash flooding is a significant concern, as explained below.

Original article from 1:04 p.m. (expired storm updates at the bottom of this post)

The
air is thick and the ground waterlogged. As a vigorous front squeezes
out the moisture from the sky and violently hurls it down onto our
sodden terrain, wind and flooding hazards may become a real issue for
the region this evening.

Strong to severe
thunderstorms with torrential rain and highs winds are expected between
about 5 and 10 p.m. This is a situation where some areas may feel a
vicious blow, while others are mostly passed over. But given all of the recent rain, our region is vulnerable.

The
saturated ground and potential deluge have prompted the National
Weather Service to issue a flash flood watch for the entire area. The
soils are so swamped, only an additional half to 1 inch of rainfall is
needed to tip parts of the region back into a flooded state. The Weather
Service says the hardest hit areas may see 2 to 3 inches in a short time.

Motorists
during the evening rush hour and a little afterward will have to be
vigilant for rapid ponding on the roads. During heavy rain and the
immediate aftermath, avoid routes near creeks and streams that may
hastily overflow, rising up to 5 to 10 feet in minutes. Such rapid rises
occurred in places earlier this week, like when Four Mile Run in Alexandria rose 6.3 feet in 11 minutes, according to the National Weather Service.

If
you encounter a flooded road, turn around — the water level is
frequently difficult to judge and a stranded vehicle places the
passengers and first responders in danger.

Additionally,
the soaked ground has weakened tree root systems to the point that even
nonsevere wind gusts, i.e. those in the 40 to 50 mph range, may cause
more trees to fall than normal. This means moving to the lowest floor of
a dwelling if you hear the wind suddenly come up, and be prepared for
power outages.

Storm dashboard

Approximate arrival time for storms:

Interstate 81 area: 4 to 7 p.m.

West of Beltway: 5 to 9 p.m.

The District and inside Beltway: 6 to 10 p.m.

East of Beltway: 6 to 11 p.m.

(Isolated storms could develop earlier, especially east of Interstate 81.)

HRRR simulation of total rainfall, but this is just illustrative and localized amounts will vary considerably.

Discussion

This
afternoon and evening, a cold front will slowly approach the D.C.
region from the west, accompanied by a disturbance in the upper
atmosphere that will increase wind speeds in the middle and upper levels
of the atmosphere. Additionally, the jet stream aloft will be aligned
in such a way as to enhance the uplift of air over the Mid-Atlantic.

(National Weather Service)

With
plenty of sunshine and a humid lower atmosphere, the atmosphere is
expected to destabilize to fairly significant levels by mid-to-late
afternoon. The unstable atmosphere, combined with winds increasing
aloft, and uplift along the front, will set the stage for some strong to
severe thunderstorms.

The high resolution
prediction models, in general, develop these storms first over the
mountains and highlands to our west, during the mid afternoon. By 5 to 6
p.m., a broken line of showers and storms advances into the far western
suburbs, then across the D.C. and Baltimore metro corridor around 7 or 8
p.m. The line is expected to be narrow and may not be continuous.

Simulated
radar loop of storms between 4 p.m. and midnight. This is just a model
so the actual timing and locations of storms are likely to differ some
from this.

With abundant buoyant
energy (unstable atmosphere), storm updrafts will be strong and wind
shear will further increase the strength and organization of storm
drafts.

Some of the embedded storm cells could
produce damaging winds, intense lightning and small to medium-size hail.
We expect these storms will organize into longer-lived clusters, and a
few could even display supercell-like characteristics for a short time.
This would mean the potential for larger hail (perhaps golf ball size),
microbursts, and/or a brief tornado.

Expired storm updates

1:42 p.m. – Severe thunderstorm watch likely on the way

We’re
already seeing a severe storm develop northwest of Fredericksburg and
the National Weather Service indicates there’s an 80 percent chance a
severe thunderstorm watch will be issued for the region. “Both severe
wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger
storms,” the Weather Service said in a statement.

2:25 p.m. – Severe thunderstorm warning for area around Manassas

A
severe thunderstorm in east central Fauquier County, about 10 miles
east of Warrenton, is moving northeast in the general direction of
Haymarket and Manassas. These storm could produce wind gusts up to 60
mph and hail through around 3:15 p.m., when the warning in effect
expires.

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Jason Samenow Jason
Samenow is The Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather
Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric
science and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the
U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National
Weather Association. Follow

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