Big Brother 11 – A Strategic Overview of Week Three

What a week, what a season. Last week ended with Ronnie as public enemy number one, but when Jessie won HOH, the guarantee of him being the next to go quickly evaporated. Jessie immediately put into action a plan to backdoor Casey instead of Ronnie, which on Thursday proved to be successful. Also on Thursday, it was announced that the cliques would be dissolved, and it would now become an individual game.

So now that the cliques are gone, how does this change the game? Who should stand by their cliques? Who should break away? And where do the players stand strategically?

Casey
He should have known better. When you’re talking to a close ally of the HOH, it’s a smart idea not to talk about targeting him if he doesn’t do what you want. Because then they’ll do something you really don’t want: put you on the block and evict you. Did he really not think Natalie would go up and tell Jessie everything he said? It just goes to show that a simple lapse in judgment in this house can ruin you.

Chima
She doesn’t have a target on her back at the moment. She has developed a relationship with Russell, which can only help her at this point in the game. There is going to be a big changeup soon in alliances now that the cliques have been dissolved; Chima just needs to try to make sure she is with the majority.

Jeff
This is going to be interesting now that the cliques are gone. He is bound to be targeted by the athletes. He still has a chance, though, if he can unite the rest of the house against them. The athletes can’t stay in control forever. And Jeff’s such a nice guy, who wouldn’t want to join him?

Jessie
Jessie continues to play a good game. I truly believe that getting rid of Casey was the best move right now. However, winning HOH may not have been. Jessie has been HOH two out of the first three weeks, and usually being HOH just once out of the first few weeks is enough to ruin someone’s game. Sooner or later Jessie’s going to have to put his alliances to the test, and the best thing Jessie can do right now is to make Russell out to be the leader, giving him as much blame as possible. He needs to make sure that when the athlete alliance is targeted, Russell is the one who leaves and not Jessie.

Jordan
Jordan’s just along for the ride. In her own words, she’s “the greatest pawn ever.” The clique dissolve is one of the best things that could have happened to her because it now increases the number of people the HOH can nominate. It would also be helpful if the cliques start turning on each other, thereby diminishing the target on her and Jeff.

Kevin
He’s a lot smarter and more observant than the other houseguests realize. First, he noticed Natalie’s lie about her age on day one. Then, this week, he catches Ronnie privately celebrating Jessie’s HOH win. He has yet to use any of this information to target someone, but he definitely has a good sense of what’s going on and where everyone stands inside the house. Hopefully, he’ll pick the right moment to use this talent to his advantage.

Lydia
Her obsession with Jessie has gone too far. At first, I thought she was just playing him the first week to get off the block, but now, three weeks in, and she’s still all over him. Lydia needs to back off because while it’s good for her to have an alliance with Jessie, she needs to be careful about creating unnecessary enemies.

Michele
I can’t believe it took three weeks for me to realize what a poor strategist she is. She may have a PHD in neuroscience, but she doesn’t have one in game theory; that’s for sure. Her conversations with Jessie were honestly hard to watch. When Jessie and Natalie asked her to promise them safety if she won HOH next week, she merely talked circles around herself, not promising anything. And by not promising anything she was inadvertently telling them something: she’s not on their side, and that’s information that she should really be keeping to herself.

Natalie
Her alliance with Jessie has gotten strong, but maybe too strong. We have already seen Lydia’s jealousy, but how soon until we see Russell’s. Natalie needs to be careful, or she will soon lose control of her alliance.

Ronnie
He got lucky this week with Jessie winning HOH, but he can’t expect his past missteps to suddenly disappear. That being said, Ronnie has been doing a fairly decent job of laying low since the entire house confronted him about being a rat. He’s been busy mending relationships and distancing himself from his deceptive ways. Although, it would probably help him more if he tried not grinning every time he doesn’t get put on the block.

Russell
This past week I think Casey opened Russell’s eyes to his position in his alliance. Expect to see him mixing some things up this week, testing the waters to see how strong his alliance holds up. An alliance with Jeff would be crazy, but right now it might not be out of the question. This is a turning point in the game, and he should think about turning on Jessie and Natalie before they turn on him.

So how will these strategies pan out? Stay tuned to find out. I’ll be back next week with some more strategic musings.

Don’t miss a single recap of this show or others. Sign up for the RSS Feeds.