MONDAY AM, 6TH UPDATE: Hope you enjoyed your Labor Day weekend and the end to Summer 2012’s up and down movie season. It started out strong with Marvel’s The Avengers (which Disney expanded into about 1,700 theaters this weekend to help its worldwide gross push past $1.5B sooner). Then tragedy almost sank The Dark Knight Riseswhich Warner Bros and Legendary Pictures will announce today is the 11th film to pass $1 billion global box office. But this end to the Summer 2012 movie season is now finishing weak on what is traditionally one of the softer weekends of the year. Overall moviegoing is $104M, down -2.7% from last year.

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Lionsgate’s The Possession (2,816 theaters) from horror master Sam Raimi’s Ghost House Pictures opened to a 3-day weekend of $17.7M. Estimate for the 4-day holiday of $21.3M. The production budget was only in the low- to mid-teens. Audiences gave the film a ‘B’ CinemaScore which didn’t help or hurt word of mouth. (Though horror genre movies don’t score higher than ‘B+’.) Factoring in The Expendables 2, Lionsgate was #1 for three weeks in a row if the pic holds. The Possession bills itself as based on a true tale of terror about a man who bought a wine box possessed by a demon at an estate sale in Portland, Oregon in 2001. Jason Haxton wrote a book about his Dibbuk box experiences and helped seed the story virally including a SyFy Channel documentary. Lionsgate also produced a documentary, enlisting Jewish mysticism experts about evil spirits, which debuted on EPIX. Marketing targeted horror fans and young females with a media buy that capitalized on the PG-13 rating and cable TV shows about hauntings. Lionsgate also created a blog called “The Secret Teachings” about so-called real experiences of people who were possessed. Matisyahu, the Jewish musician who stars in the film, cross-promoted the release with his new album. The film also stars Jeffrey Dean Morgan and Kyra Sedgwick. It was directed by Ole Bornedal (Nightwatch), written by Juliet Snowden & Stiles White, and produced by Raimi along with Robert Tapert and JR Young.

The Weinstein Company’s R-rated outlaw drama Lawless(2,888 theaters) is #2 with an estimated 3-day weekend of $10.0M, and a four-day Labor Day holiday of $13.0M. That makes the six-day cume $15.1M after opening on Wednesday – underwhelming with all that acting prowess like Shia LaBeouf, Tom Hardy, Gary Oldman, Guy Pearce, Jessica Chastain, and Mia Wasikowska. I’m surprised TWC didn’t platform the pic before taking it out wide this Labor day weekend. “What usually happens for a Wednesday opening is that you can get around 12.5 times that number for the 6 days Wednesday through Monday which would put us at $13.5M,” a Weinstein exec told me on Thursday. “Anything $12 million or better would be pretty good all things considered. So I think we would be very happy with that number.” The Weinstein Company bought U.S. rights to the film at Cannes 2011 and have partnered with both Sean Combs’ Revolt Films and Ron Burkle’s Yucaipa Films. This gritty bootlegger tale based on real-life Prohibition figures reteams The Proposition team of director John Hillcoat and screenwriter Nick Cave. Tracking was decent particularly with males aged 17-34.

Holdovers: Millenium’s and Lionsgate’s The Expendables 2 (3,334 theaters) is in 3rd place with a cume of $68.5M. Universal’s The Bourne Legacy is in 4th place with a total of $98.4M.

Last weekend’s surprise 2016 Obama’s America (expanding into 1,750 theaters starting its 8th week in release) continues helped by the Republican National Convention. The conservative political documentary came in #8 this weekend. By Monday’s end, pic is now the 5th biggest grossing political documentary for $20.3M, besting the $14.3M for Michael Moore’s Capitalism: A Love Story (2009) not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices. 2016 Obama’s America is produced by Gerald R. Molen who credits “learning some lessons” from Moore. “When he released Fahrenheit 9/11 in 2004 ahead of the election, it sparked intense debate.”

I really object to error-prone media outlets characterizing newcomer Oogieloves In The Big Balloon Adventure (2,160 theaters) as “the worst national opening ever”. First there’s the qualifier that it’s a movie playing in more than 2,000 theaters. And then there’s the reality that it actually debuted midweek so that disqualifies it from being the worst right there. Granted, this Kenn Viselman Presents pic made a really lousy 3-day weekend showing of $445K, and the 4-day holiday just $601K, for a total $827K during its first 6 days through Labor Day. And its per screen average gave new meaning to the word anemic. Problem was, as one reviewer snarked, it’s a children’s movie for those tots who think the Teletubbies are too sophisticated. ‘Nuff said.

THURSDAY AM: The Weinstein Company’s R-rated outlaw drama Lawlessopened in the dog days of August in 2,565 theaters Wednesday. Its $1.1M was good enough to narrowly edge out two-week-straight #1 The Expendables 2 from Millenium/Lionsgate.

73 Comments

That’s half what Timothy Green did, why are they pretending that is a good Wednesday gross?

Anon • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Timothy Green is a children’s Disney movie. Find a better comparison.

MovieFan • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I’m wondering if “Timothy Green” was supposed to be compared to “Oogieloves.”

“Green” looks like a more successful film in terms of broader appeal to children and adults. It was aimed at a family audience, while “Oogieloves” was aimed mainly at younger children. The ladder should be better off as a PBS program, where it can have success.

Anonymous • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I assume you meant “latter”.

Walter • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Everyone assumed the poster meant “latter,” so what’s your point?

Mrsmith • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I’m really torn with this movie. On one hand, as an australian, I really want it to do well. On the other hand…I really hate Shia…

Harry Bent • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Shia is an everyman in the USA in the year 2012. I live near Columbia University in New York. Every day I see 20 guys that look like him. This may be a key to his popularity.

Justin Poppiti, Esq. • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

People who live in NYC are not necessarily indicative of the everyman in USA.

Anonymous • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Ha ha! Agreed Justin, particularly people that “live near Columbia”! Live in a bubble much?

S4H1 • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Everyman is an unrealistic term. Shia is an action star who is in his 20’s, which makes him different from all the 30+, or 40+, or 60+ action stars who have produced the majority of action films the last few years. I would argue that he has some boyish characteristics that aren’t prominent in the genre, which makes him a monopolist of sorts.

alexinwonderland • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

It seems at one point he was being groomed to be the next Tom Hanks, which made sense. Then he makes this action turn in the Transformers movies – in which he’s a supporting player to the special effects – and suddenly we’re supposed to buy him as an action star? Never going to happen. I’m not sure he’ll ever pull off leading man status at this point…

Scott MacDonough • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I happen to live near Columbia University in NYC but if I saw even one person who looked like Shia, I’d move to Jersey. Seriously, year after year I keep waiting for Hollywood to wake up and discover the multi-talented Derek Hough of the otherwise negligible “Dancing with the Stars”. Instead, the Hollywood honchos persist in shoving this no-talent cretin in our faces. And now, the moron is threatening to perform hardcore sex in his next opus. I’ll pass. Where is Louis B. Mayer when we need him?

lol • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

hahaha Derek Hough. Oh you be trolling us.

Shia can't jump • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

only children are going to show up to see Shia pretending to be a man

pic is also way off in its “cops are crooked, thugs have hearts of gold” theme, crime is rising and this is NOT the general mood in Americans, who are seeing police forces cut back while life gets more dangerous

country is ripe for another Dirty Harry/Death Wish, question is will the people running Hollywood ever figure it out from their gated communities and servant-attended homes?

Comparing it to Timothy Green and Hit and Run, last week’s Wednesday opener, Lawless falls between them. So, between underwhelming and disastrous, and much closer to disastrous. Those two films were 7th and 10th in their respective weekends, so Lawless’s eventual top 5 finish is just a testament to how pathetic Labor Day Weekend is.

At this point, it’s safe to say that The Possession will run away with the weekend unless the prints get lost on the way to the cinemas.

W • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

The Possession a PG-13 horror (bread and butter of movie studios like Lionsgate) with a more well known director isn’t doing great. This summer had so many movies like Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman, Battleship, and Dark Shadows that didn’t perform well given their bloated budgets. The real winners are small and mid budget movies like Ted and Magic Mike. We could use more like them.

mr marquee • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Banjoman, you must be possessed if you think that sad attempt at horror will win the weekend

Banjoman • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

But how could it not? Lawless clearly won’t compete. 2016 is expanding again but its momentum can’t continue to build forever. The closest thing to a challenger would be the third weekend of Expendables 2, and even given a very, very modest drop, it won’t crack $11 million in four days. That’s a low bar for a possession movie to clear. The Devil Inside, Insidious, The Rite, and The Last Exorcism all opened bigger than that in three days. Sure, The Possession looks terrible, but that doesn’t matter much in this subgenre.

T • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Wow. How’s that sandwich taste, Mr. Marquee?

dudette • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

this film cannot be good. the tell-tale sign will be its friday – monday gross. which will probably be around 6M. which is not good. from “this means war” to “lawless” tom hardy seems to be good at picking clunkters.

Bane Of Your Existence • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

You seemed to have missed a little movie between those two.

Cameron • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Would have been better without Shia, and I’m not a hater of his. Every other character was infinitely more fascinating to watch and had a better actor portraying them. The film focuses too much on Shia when Tom Hardy, Guy Pearce, and the lovely Jessica Chastain are clearly the stars of the show. Watching Shia try to hold his own in scenes with these people is like watching a lamb in a lion’s den: a slaughter.

jez • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Not a bad result for Lawless, a film with hardly any A-List celebrities unlike The Expendables (LaBeouf, Chastain, Hardy, Oldman, Wasikowska vs the elite team of Stallone, Statham, Norris, Li, Willis, Schwarzenegger etc).

ILDC • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

“A-list” in 2012?

jez • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I admit the term A-List is questionable at very best. But in a world when would be A-List stars are featuring in flops, Stallone I beleive is one of the few movie stars that can open movies in his own right as apposed to being based on a pre established source material.

ILDC • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I haven’t forgotten about how TWC handled John Hillcoat’s last movie, and the results.

Anon • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

This movie was silly fun and full of cliches, but Tom Hardy is – Lord Have Mercy. My girlfriend and I would sit up in our chairs when he was in a scene and sort of lose interest and sink back down when he wasn’t (not that the other actors were bad, they were ok).

Rare to see such a masculine white man in Hollywood. Where’d they discover him?

poor white guys my a** • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

“Rare to see such a masculine white man in Hollywood.”

Anon,are you serious? All Hollywood ever gives us is macho white male posturing. Spare me the fake victimhood. Go see a Bond movie or that Expendables dreck and quit whining.

I think this is a rather fitting valediction: Poor films to conclude a summer of poor films. I guess it wasn’t quite as appalling as last summer, but there weren’t too many stand-outs at the multiplex this season. This afternoon, I bypassed all the studio fare and went to see Celeste and Jesse Forever. I thought it was pretty good, better than some critics have suggested it to be.

I’ll probably see Lawless, just to spend some time with my love, Jessica Chastain. Everything else is a miss, of course, although I have heard Oogieloves is about to break some records.

Vance Rosen • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

The most exciting box office story this week isn’t whether The Possession will open at #1, it’s not whether Obama’s America will hit the top 5, it’s how low will Oogieloves open. It legitimately sounds like it’ll be a real contender for Delgo’s worst opening in 2000+ theaters record, which is hilarious.

You obviously haven’t been following the tracking data. Last night, it was almost impossible to find a seat; I had to defer my ticket until one of the late-night shows, added last-minute to accomodate such demand. There’s already some heated discussion on the IMDb boards about whether the film would have broken records had it been released in 3D. In any case, it’s a pretty historic performance for Oogieloves.

Truthman • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

What are you smoking? Following the tracking? There’s nothing to follow because it isn’t tracking. The only big balloon the Oogieloves are going to find is the big balloon of debt they’ll be left with. Visionary my a**.

Vance Rosen • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Hey Kenn Viselman…uh, I mean Dack Rouleau, how about that $217 per-theater average for Oogieloves’ first weekend? Sounds like they’re selling out seats left and right.

Dartboard • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I hate to be a burden, but there’s this wonderfully inventive tool called sarcasm.

Chucky • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

“Oogieloves” skews very young, so it isn’t playing after 7 PM in most theaters.

“The Avengers” is the back half of Disney’s annual Labor Day re-release. “Brave” is showing during the day and the Marvel movie at night.

Scottish Bane • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

The horror flick will win. The fact that it looks like the year’s worst film, DEVIL INSIDE(*You know, the one that ended with a climactic plug for its own FB page?) should hurt it, but won’t.

Hong Kong Fo-we-Nintendo • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Nick Cave can do no wrong!!

lawless • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Lawless is great, Hardy is PHENOMENAL unintentionally stealing what was once Shia’s movie, who btw is better than he has ever been because he’s playing what he is, an insecure terrified wimp. (best stuff J Gylenhall does too)

in regards to getting the morals wrong you need to take a good look at the negative effects prohibition had and who the real victims and villains were. It’s not unlike the disastrous handling of the war on drugs today.
Great film.

Anon • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

WHY are some people so down on young Shia L?

He’s talented and quirky and attractive, with a unique, special quality. Hollywood is full of bland actors but how many guys like him? As far as Tom Hardy – they are very different actors playing very different characters, and they both played their parts well.

To be fair, now that I’m thinking about it, in this film Hardy was supposed to capture your attention and make you notice when he came into a scene. Shia L wasn’t playing the masculine/tough lead.

neil • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

He’s full of himself and he’s a poser. I thought he was charming, quirky and talented a few years ago, but all he’s done since then is mouth off and act like a douche. This kids star is fading fast.

Karen K • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I think you are confusing the characters with the actors who play them. Shia’s character, Jack, is supposed to be whimpy and naive. Tom’s character, Forrest, is supposed to be this larger-than-life presence since that is how Jack (and the reader/viewer) sees him. Forrest is projected through the eyes of an admiring brother.

Full disclosure: I am seeing “Lawless” tomorrow, but I read “The Wettest County in the World”. In the book, Forrest commanded your attention in every scene, and you really wanted Jack to grow a pair. So, it seems like the actors are playing their parts perfectly!

hillybilly • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

this seems to be what “lawless” is saying. The actors fit the roles perfectly. Having seen it myself, i must say Hardy is much more memorable than Shia who it honestly does seem as the narrator and character that changes the most was the protagonist. Glad shia he’s picking fitting, interesting roles.

Jon • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I cant help but wonder if Rocky Mountain Pics was expecting an increase from last weekend and not just an on par to last week…..doubt itll increase anymore after this weekend.

4juices • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Dear Hollywood,

Get a Grip. – Did you forget 10% of your customers are unemployed or underemployed and the other 80% wishing the price of food, fuel, rent, and clothes would drop just a little so they can afford a ticket. It doesn’t take much to figure out why numbers are low. I love going to the movies, but no way am I going to pay $10 a ticket for a lousy movie. Maybe $5 or $6 or Maybe $10 for a double feature. You guys have become addicted to your high saleries meanwhile gas is $4.00 a gal – I guess no movie tonight.

charlie • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I have to agree that the movies have been so bad this summer, we hardly went to the theater. I saw 2 films during the May to July months, the biggest grossing film of the summer, Avengers, and the one I saw with the kids, Madagascar 3. And hadn’t gone back until Wednesday, when we went to see Expendables 2. We went to a 2pm show and it was only $5.00. So, the theaters are doing what they can to get butts in seats given the sad state of Hollywood films at the moment. Most theaters have discounts running through the weekdays and of course there were so many flops this summer that alot of the movies at the $1.50 theater were fairly recent releases. In other words, you can see new films cheaply if you just check out the theaters in your area. Our pet peeve- we don’t like sitting through a 2+ hour marathon movie, especially if it is idiotic and boring regardless of how cheap it is. Most movies released this year are too long and that turns me off before I even contemplate buying a ticket.

Frank • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

The box office would be more successful if California got fiscal act together, the high debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable and has resorted to Hollywood to ask for more money per ticket to reinforce their grossly over inflated standard of living. It’s also one of the reasons why ticket prices have risen to as much as $20 in liberal cities such as New York where the state deficit continues to skyrocket. A high debt to GDP on a state and Federal level have resulted in devaluation of the dollar and also attributed to higher ticket prices. This is just one example of how the fiscal disposition of a country can adversely influence the outcome of macroeconomic prosperity among individual industries. The less the dollar is worth, the higher ticket prices will become and the less likely individuals will consider going to the movies. The higher the ticket prices become, the worse box office sales will become.

Paul • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

quit trying to explain away the success of the anti-Obama film “2016.” People are seeing it because they still do not know the man who is in the White House.

Brandi • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I thought Shia did a fine job playing a young brat trying to grow up fast and stand tall with his brothers. It seems like a perfect role for someone like Shia, and he was believable. I don’t know what more people wanted him to do. Tom Hardy did a fine job as expected but I don’t think he outshone Shia so much. I thought everyone did an equally good job with the roles they had.

dopleganger • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I was surprised that Lawless didn’t make as much money as expected. People can spin all they want. I think the marketing was terrible, and I don’t recall many interviews anywhere from the cast. Shia is getting attention for talking about everything other then the film. He seemed to be more concerned with promoting his upcoming projects. Tom Hardy is a good supporting actor. I don’t think he has that leading man quality. Regardless of his performance in TDK. You didn’t even see his face.

I wonder if because of the shooting they didn’t know how to promote it.

regarding people here always talking about people that are out of work an not able to buy movie tickets.

look people spend the money they have the way they want. I go out to eat and the places are full. The malls are full. and people are finding money to pay for dance classes and after school sports. Women are getting their hair done and nails. Men are buying their toys and beer. I know we are in a recession, but people are spending money. I think they are just being selective on the movies they will pay to see. I have my favorite stars. I go see their movies opening weekend or opening week. I will be in the theater in October to see my favorite in a film. Other films I weight whether I need to see it in a theater or can I wait for the dvd.

I don’t think I’m in the minority if that thinking either. there was nothing playing this weekend that I felt I needed to see. It seems a lot of the public felt the same way.

College Student • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Agreed. People are still spending money but they’re just being smarter about their purchases. Waiting for clothes to go on sale, waiting a little longer before trading in a car or a house, eating out less, and only buying tickets for movies that look good.

If there’s any question about whether or not the movie will be enjoyable, most would rather just wait for it to hit Redbox. Hollywood can lower ticket prices and get a less discerning audience, focus on making better movies, or just keep on doing what they’re doing…

ctkat1 • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

I agree re: discretionary income. People are being more selective with the money that they have. I live in Oregon, where matinee movies before 6pm are $4, and full price is $6.50. Even with those low prices, I still weigh whether I want to see a film in the theater or wait for the DVD. This is a big change from just a few years ago, when I would go to the movies twice a week. I still love going to the movies, I still eagerly await films by directors I admire and stars that I enjoy. I’m just not interested in spending the money for a movie I know is only middling. Over the last two months I saw “Premium Rush,” “Lawless,” “Bourne Legacy,” “Hope Springs,” “Celeste and Jesse Forever,” and “Jiro Dreams of Sushi.” This month I hope to see “The Master,” “Keep the Lights On” and “Looper.”

I don’t think the economy is the only reason people aren’t going to the movies. I think the economy is forcing people to think before spending money on entertainment, and Hollywood needs to step up its game.

Remote Patrolled • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Just got back from The Possession and have to say I was pretty impressed. Good to see an adult horror movies with some real scares. They avoided a fair many of The Exorcist cliches and the Jewish angle was fresh. Far better than I was expecting!

College Student • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Opening ‘Lawless’ this weekend was foolish. Most males would rather go to the season opener for their favorite college football team, or watch the many televised games from home.

This weak weekend nicely ties together a weak summer. ‘Avengers’ and ‘Dark Knight Returns’ were entertaining blockbusters. No break-out comedies. Forgettable Pixar entry. A few indie films of note… ‘Moonrise Kingdom’ was amusing, and I’ve heard that ‘Exotic Marigold Hotel’ and ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’ were good. That said, I can’t see myself going out and buying the DVD for any of these movies. Hopefully some of the prestige films will pick up the slack in a year that has been pretty lackluster for movies.

orlando • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

No breakout comedies, for real. Well what the hell do you call ‘Ted’, if that’s not a breakout comedy i don’t know what is. You misculculated a little there my friend.

College Student • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

You got me there… I completely forgot about ‘Ted’, though I still maintain that this has been a weak year for movies.

Truthman • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

So what we’ve learned is that the tea party audience is worth 16.5 million for an opening weekend propaganda pic. Good to know.

Shy • on Sep 3, 2012 8:45 am

Well good riddance Shia LaBeauf’s career in wide released movies. Lawless basically flopped. Well ok – it underperformed. There were too many publicity and too many famous actors in this film. It should have got more money. And Shia can “proudly” say that he choose not to be in big budget movies anymore. But reality is that no one asks him to be there.

People said that Megan Fox was getting it too harsh while Shia was badmouthing powerful people too. But it got him too. It was just not as public as with Megan. Produces just stopped calling him and asking him to star in their $50+ millions movies. And also there is this fact that Shia has outgrown his teenage charm. He can’t play those funny-loser teenagers that he was basically playing in every film. Now he just looks gross and disgusting most of the time. And add that fact that he is not talented actor and plays the same role in every movies.

So Shia vanished from big screen. Then he got this role in Lawless and well – it underperformed big time. I guess that is it as “formerly almost A-list” Shia. Remember how big he was during Transformers? And how is is just another Orlando Bloom. Good luck with those straight to DVD movies that no one will see Shia.
(Sorry for bad English. Not my first language…)