Special Reports

Purchasing Managers' Index
MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION

RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' IndexTM finds new order growth strengthens in August, leading to faster rise in output

SEPTEMBER 1, 2011 Incoming new work at Canadian manufacturers increased at a marked pace during August, according to the RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers IndexTM (RBC PMITM), a newly launched monthly survey, conducted in association with Markit, a leading global financial information services company, and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC), which offers a comprehensive and early indicator of trends in the Canadian manufacturing sector.

The RBC PMI found that business conditions in the Canadian manufacturing sector improved further in August. This was supported by stronger increases in both output and new orders. Panellists attributed growth of new work to greater demand and new client wins. Subsequently, firms employed additional staff to cope with the increase in workloads. Meanwhile, price pressures eased in August, with both input costs and output charges rising at slower rates.

At 54.9, up from 53.1 in July, the headline RBC PMI - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of the health of the manufacturing sector - signalled a solid improvement in overall business conditions within the Canadian manufacturing sector in August. The index reading was the highest in four months, as both output and new order levels grew at sharper rates during the latest survey period.

"The Canadian manufacturing sector is showing renewed strength in August, as increases in new work and production levels also boosted employment," said Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist, RBC. "Today's report supports the view that the supply chain problems in manufacturing which arose from the natural disasters that hit Japan in March have started to reverse. This augurs well for a rebound in manufacturing activity over the second half of this year."

The latest expansion in the Canadian manufacturing sector partly reflected firms receiving a larger volume of new orders in August. Firms cited greater demand for their goods, as well as new client wins. Notably, the rate of expansion was the fastest in four months. Incoming new orders from abroad also increased, with a number of monitored companies highlighting the US as a key source of new export order growth.

In light of higher new order requirements, firms stepped up production in August. Moreover, survey respondents also fulfilled some new orders by depleting their stocks of finished goods for the second consecutive month.

The amount of inputs bought by firms increased during the latest survey period. Stocks of purchases also rose, albeit only marginally. Meanwhile, the average time it took for suppliers to deliver inputs to Canadian manufacturers lengthened further in August. The latest deterioration in vendor performance was marked and the strongest since May. Anecdotal evidence provided by respondents suggested that delivery delays were frequently the result of backlogs at suppliers.

Employment in the Canadian manufacturing sector increased during August. Notably, the rate of growth was the fastest in three months. Almost 22 per cent of surveyed firms hired additional staff, while 9 per cent reported job losses. Job creation was generally linked to greater production requirements.

Manufacturing companies based in Canada recorded higher input costs in August. Raw materials such as metals and petroleum-based items were particularly mentioned by respondents as increasing in price. Nevertheless, the rate of input cost inflation eased since the previous survey period, and was the weakest in 2011 so far. Panellists passed on greater cost burdens to clients by raising their output charges in August. Factory gate prices rose solidly, albeit at the slowest rate since November 2010 and at a weaker pace than that registered for input costs.

Regional PMI data signalled that all four broad Canadian regions registered an improvement in overall manufacturing conditions in August. The expansions were stronger than those recorded in July.

Similarly, all four broad regions reported new order growth. Quebec, however, posted the weakest rise in new work intakes.

Quebec was the only region to register job losses in August.

The fastest rate of input cost inflation was recorded in Ontario. Subsequently, manufacturing companies based in that region raised their factory gate prices to the greatest extent.

"Canadian manufacturers received a larger volume of new work in August, with export orders recovering further from the dip recorded in June," said Cheryl Paradowski, President and Chief Executive Officer, PMAC. "The overall increase in new orders largely reflected greater demand and new client wins, and contributed to faster production growth. Meanwhile, panellists also recorded higher input prices, driven by increased costs for certain raw materials. That said, the rate of input price inflation has eased since July to the weakest in 2011 so far."

Notes to Editors:
The RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI Report is based on
data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent
to purchasing executives in over 400 industrial companies.
The panel is stratified by Standard Industrial Classification
(SIC) group, based on the industry contribution to GDP.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current
month compared to the previous month based on data collected
mid-month. For each of the indicators the 'Report' shows the
percentage reporting each response, the net difference between
the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses,
and the 'diffusion' index. This index is the sum of the positive
responses plus a half of those responding 'the same'.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators
and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing
direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an
overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease.

The RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
(RBC PMI) is a composite index based on five of
the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders
- 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers' Delivery
Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery
Times Index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey methodology
has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the
most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening
in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as
sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are
widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts
in financial institutions to help better understand business
conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In
particular, central banks in many countries (including the
European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest
rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic
conditions published each month and are therefore available
well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.

Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication,
but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to
time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted
data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted)
numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently
revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please
contact economics@markit.com.

About RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries
operate under the master brand name RBC. We are Canada's largest
bank as measured by assets and market capitalization, and
among the largest banks in the world, based on market capitalization.
We are one of North America's leading diversified financial
services companies, and provide personal and commercial banking,
wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment
banking and transaction processing services on a global basis.
We employ approximately 79,000 full- and part-time employees
who serve close to 16 million personal, business, public sector
and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S.
and 50 other countries. For more information, please visit
www.rbc.com.

About Purchasing Management Association of Canada
The Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC) is
the leading, and the largest, association in Canada for supply
chain management professionals. With 7,000 members working
across private and public sectors, PMAC is the principal source
of supply chain training, education and professional development
in the country, requiring all members to adhere to a Code
of Ethics. Through its 10 Provincial and Territorial Institutes,
PMAC grants the SCMP (Supply Chain Management Professional)
designation, the highest achievement in the field and the
mark of strategic leadership. For more information please
see www.pmac.ca.

About Markit
Markit is a leading, global financial information services
company with over 2,200 employees. The company provides independent
data, valuations and trade processing across all asset classes
in order to enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve
operational efficiency. Its client base includes the most
significant institutional participants in the financial marketplace.
For more information, see www.markit.com.

About PMIsPurchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys
are now available for 32 countries and also for key regions
including the Eurozone. They are the most closely-watched
business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks,
financial markets and business decision makers for their ability
to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators
of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.

The intellectual property rights to the RBC Canadian Manufacturing
PMI provided herein is owned by Markit Economics Limited.
Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying,
distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing
is not permitted without Markit's prior consent. Markit shall
not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating
to the content or information ("data") contained
herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the
data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no
event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental,
or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data.
Purchasing Managers' Index and PMI are trade marks
of Markit Economics Limited, RBC uses the above marks under
licence. Markit and the Markit logo are registered trade marks
of Markit Group Limited.