Dr Patrick Dixon is a one of the world's best-known Futurists, a cancer physician by first training, prominent author of 16 books, and a world-class keynote speaker on future health care / pharma trends. Dr Dixon has worked with over 400 of the world's largest companies, and delivered health care keynotes to many of the world's largest health / pharma companies, on future strategy, and new health product development. Here are many Futurist keynotes / articles / videos on topics such as future of health care, future of hospitals and clinics, community care trends, future of pharma drug development, future of clinical trials and medical research trends, future of MedTech, Biotech, Infotech, future stem cell therapies, immunotherapy and trends in performance medicine.

I have warned repeatedly over the last 22 years in several books, at largenumbers of corporate events, and in many global media broadcasts about new global threats from new mutant viruses, which we see emerging somewhere in the world once every 12 months on average.

Most of these virus types do not spread far, often because so lethal that theykill faster than spread takes place. But that has meant governments have been complacent, neglecting to fund much-needed research into antiviral therapies. As a result we have nothing to offer at present to those who are sick or dying from Coronavirus COVID-19 except supportive measures.

As I often say to corporations: the world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting (and I don't just mean threats from viral pandemics). The days of depending on only one Strategy are over. Every company needs Plan B, C, D and E as well, and to be AGILE in leadership, able to respond very rapidly to major events in our hyper-connected world.

My 1998 warning:( Futurewise, published by Harper Collins)

"One consequence of the increasing population is a growing risk of global epidemics. We are already seeing rapidly changing viruses emerging in different parts of the world. Every time a new persons is infected there is a small risk of a significant mutation. As the world population increases, so the risk of mutation increases. High mobility also encourages spread. We have no medical protection against viral plague."

My 2015 warning: (The Future of Almost Everything, published by Profile Books)

Humankind is very vulnerable to viral attack because we have very few, and relatively feeble, antiviral therapies. There is not a single antiviral today that is as effective as penicillin when first discovered. Antiviral research is 50 years behind antibiotics.

Spanish flu in 1918‒19 spread across the world in months, on foot, horses, donkeys, trains and ships, killing over 30 million people, out of a world population of 2 billion. If a similar highly infectious and lethal pandemic begins tomorrow, it is likely to spread on international flights in days and weeks, not months, with no time for vaccine development or global distribution, and could kill 100 million people within a year.

That is why the World Health Organisation keeps warning governments about these threats.

12th February 2020

Repeated warnings about mutant flu / new viruses like SARS-CoV-2 - wider long term picture

At a time of panic in some communities, here is a common sense view. I am writing as a physician and trends analyst who has been involved in the fight against HIV (another mutant virus) for over three decades. Since 1987 I have been predicting the great vulnerability of our world to new mutant viruses or mutations of existing ones, in my book The Truth about AIDS, in Futurewise published in 1998, and in The Future of Almost Everything published in 2015/2019...

Expect more health care innovation from 2045 - 2050 than in all human history

As a physician and a Futurist, I work with many of of the world's largest Pharma and MedTech companies, helping them develop next-generation treatments to improve human health and wellbeing.

Health care knowledge is doubling every 24 months, so we will know 32,000 times in 2048 than today more about how the human body works, why disease happens, how to detect early disease, how to treat illness effectively, and how to promote health. The growth of medical knowledge shows no signs of slowing down, indeed it is accelerating.

Take for example the Human Genome Project. Back in 2001 it cost around $800m to decode or sequence most of the genetic code of just one human being. By 2006, the cost per genome sequence had already fallen to around $300,000.

Today, the same can be achieved for around $1000, using Illumina’s highest-end products, including reagents and an appropriate contribution to the capital cost of its machines. For example, the NovaSeq 6000 machine costs around $1m to buy. So how will this technology and 100,000 other innovations change future health care??

Future of Health - extract from The Future of Almost Everything book, by Futurist keynote speaker and physician, Dr Patrick Dixon, advisor to over 400 of the world's largest corporations, including many multinational pharma and health care companies.

We have seen how the future of every nation is linked to demographics, migrations and cities. But these things are also linked to the future health: not only how many people are born, but how fit they are and how long they live. And in health care, most of humankind will see an astonishing revolution over the next 30-50 years. The fact is that 65% of all health care spending in developed nations is on those over the age of 65, most of whom have several chronic health conditions, almost all related to the ageing process. Therefore it could be said that every pharma company and every hospital exists primarily to serve the health care needs of older people, in those parts of the world.

The greatest health challenges in the next two decades are almost all related to ageing, as many emerging nations also become older...

How to add 10 years to your life expectancy in 10 easy steps

As a physician and a futurist I am often asked how to live a long and healthy life.

1. Eat five portions of fruit and vegetables a day2. Exercise regularly - at least 2 hours a week (brisk walking does count)3. Don't smoke tobacco / use nicotine products4. Keep body weight at healthy level]5. Limit alcohol to one drink a day (average)6. Keep a positive outlook on life7. Form happy, long term relationships8. Find work or volunteering that you enjoy and you feel makes a difference9. Move to a nation with excellent free health care10. Seek early advice if you have symptoms which could be serious

JUST AS I PREDICTED - 14 years ago in the video above. We are now curing blindness in humans, using their own stem cells.

Stem cells are primitive cells which have the capacity to grow into many different types of organs. We now know that whenever an organ in your body is injured, these special cells are released by the bone marrow into the blood, which automatically search out areas of damage.

The cells migrate to where they are most needed, and help in repairs. In most cases we think the way they do this is by producing special chemicals such as cytokines, and other proteins or fats, which stimulate local regeneration.

The good news is that doctors have decades of experience of using stem cells in health care, treating people with advanced leukaemia which is cancer of the bone marrow. And we can find stem cells in many different parts of the body.

Notes on pharma trends keynote. In the past, the major challenge for a pharma company was to develop a new therapy, prove impact in clinical trials, show safety, and get licience approval to enable the product to be sold commercially. Typically the process could take up to 15 years, and cost up to $1.2 billion, which all had to be recouped in 10 years of sales before the patent ran out. But today there is a massive additional hurdle which is persuading cash-strapped governments and insurers to fund a new therapy for patients. It is no longer enough to prove the therapy works, saves lives, has less side effects and so on. The pharma company has to make the case that the therapy offers good value for money compared to other treatments for the same condition. Need a world-class pharma keynote speaker for your event? Phone or e-mail Patrick Dixon now.

Over 1 billion people will be older than 60 within 10 years (2022). Most people over 50 will be in Asia by 2050. 65% of all health spending is in those over 65. Therefore most Pharma spending is to meet the needs of older people. What kind of health care will they need? What kind of health care will they or their relatives be willing to buy? What kind of health products will they buy over the counter from pharmacies? What kind of support will they be looking for at home?

Pharmaceutical company anti-ageing products. Market research into anti-aging. Longevity trends and why life expectancy will be a major issue for banks, pension companies and insurance companies.

Demographic trends and length of life, and health care trends. Relationship between wealth and life expectancy. Why government actuarial life tables are incorrect. Impact on retirement age, ageism, discrimination against older workers.