Take It Slow On Ukraine

An Autonomous Ukraine Still Needs To Define Its Ties To The Soviet Union, And Needs To Show It Can Handle Freedom Responsibly.

December 3, 1991|By Brown

Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev raised the specter of disaster before Sunday's vote in the Ukraine, should Ukrainians opt for independence. Well, they did just that, and on Monday - as if to underscore Mr. Gorbachev's exaggeration - relatively little had changed.

Actually, the vote can be welcomed as yet another sign of progress in the Soviet Union, as an example of free expression - if the Ukraine acts prudently.

Until the Ukraine's intentions are known, though, the United States shouldn't rush to grant diplomatic recognition to the second-most populous Soviet republic. The Bush administration's wait-and-see approach is appropriate.

That will allow time for Ukrainian enthusiasm to die down and for reality to sink in, which is that the Ukraine depends on the Soviet Union as much as the Soviets depend on it.

After all, secession won't change the republic's geographical location, its energy dependence on Russia or other aspects of interdependence. At least the Ukraine already has agreed to remain tied to the Soviet economy and has agreed to pay for a share of the union's foreign debts.

In truth, such links will form the basis for a loose Soviet confederation in the future, even if more of the republics choose political autonomy. The relative stability of such a confederation would be to everyone's advantage, including the United States'.

Another reason for the Bush administration to hold off on recognizing the Ukraine is to obtain explicit reassurances regarding the republic's overlapping involvement with the Soviet central government concerning nuclear weapons.

It looks like Ukrainians are acting responsibly in this matter by advocating a nuclear-free zone in their republic. But until existing nuclear weapons in the Ukraine are destroyed, they have to be dealt with.

For one thing, control over those nuclear weapons needs to remain in the hands of the central government, to reduce the risk of an accidental firing. Also, the Ukraine can sign on to an international agreement that seeks to halt the spread of nuclear weapons.

Such gestures would show that the Ukraine accepts responsibility as much as it revels in independence.