Thursday, January 15, 2009

US Airways Fight 1549 Crash Flight Path

Here's a flight path map from the miraculous crash/water-landing of US Airways Flight 1549 we threw together using automated latitude / longitude, altitude, and airspeed tracking data from flightaware.com. We mapped the GPS coordinates onto Google maps, then drew in the approximate path and added the labels.

A couple of interesting things here:

1. It appears the engine trouble occurred between 3:27 pm and 3:28 pm over the Bronx Zoo, where the aircraft, which had been climbing steadily out of LGA to 3,200 feet, suddenly descends to 2,000 feet while still accelerating slightly from 194 knots to 202 knots.

2. The flight path curved inland over the northernmost part of Manhattan - as far East as Harlem River Drive - before the plane curved right to center perfectly over the Hudson. The FAA is reporting that controllers originally suggested a landing at Teterboro Airport in NJ. Maybe the left turn was a momentary adjustment for a Teterboro approach, before the pilot realized that a water landing was the only option?

3. The plane actualy GAINS 100 ft of altitude, from 1,200 to 1,300 feet, one to two minutes after the descent began, while the pilot was centering on the Hudson. News reports are suggesting that all engines were out. Could the plane pull up 100 ft using flaps alone? The altitude data from Flightaware is rounded to 100 feet, so is it possible that the plane was right around 1,250 feet could be explained by rounding errors?

Last evening CNN reported that perhaps the plane stayed afloat in the river for so long at least partly because the Airbus A320 is equipped with a "ditch switch" - a cockpit control that when activated, seals all ports and openings on the lower fuselage, so that once the aircraft enters the water, it doesn't take on water as quickly as it would normally (via vents, drains, etc).

UPDATE Jan 16, 12 Noon: Anyone have info on where the A320 will be barged to?

- A salvage dock in Bayonne, NJ - just across NY Harbor? Lots of mechanical equipment, and easy to secure from the press and public.

- Floyd Bennett Field in South Brooklyn? Floyd Bennett Field is a huge, mostly-disused old airfield that served NYC before JFK rose to prominence. Accessible by sea. The wreckage of AA Flight 587 was temporarily examined there in 2001, although that location is much closer to the 587 crash site.

- Hangar 19 at JFK Airport? - The Concorde currently on display at the Intrepid Museum was decommissioned here a few years back. Accessible by water. LGA is also reachable via New York's inland waterways, but is a much smaller airport with fewer maintenance hangars.

Anyone have other ideas or better info?

UPDATE Jan 17, 12 Noon:

Pretty sure the 'undisclosed location' the plane will be taken to is a Bayonne, NJ shipyard owned by Weeks Marine - the contractor with the crane and barge working to hoist the plane out of the Hudson. Found a Twitter feed from one of Weeks' employees, with pictures and reports from the site, including this one:Guessing the NTSB inspection will take place at one of these shipyards:

334 Comments:

I think he initially headed inland over Manhattan because he was originally directed to return to LGA. I'm surmising that at that point Teterboro was suggested but without engines and full fuel tanks the smartest thing to do was land on the river.I'm not a pilot, that's just my .02.

Flying (especially in an emergency situation) is all about energy management. If you want a little extra altitude, you can trade for a little speed (down to the stall speed). Notice that the 100ft gain is also accompanied by a 3kt speed loss.

(1) The left turn was most likely a momentary attempt to see if a landing at LGA was possible

(2) The 100ft gain in altitude is a very reasonable result of pilot attempting to slow the airplane to a speed suitable for landing. Contrary to some intuition, the way you slow a plane is by raising the nose so that more of the underside of the wing and fuselage are exposed to the oncoming air. This increased drag is what slows the aircraft. Sometimes this can cause a momentary increase in altitude if not done gradually, but the long-run result is lower airspeed. If you pay careful attention next time you come into an approach to land in an airliner you will notice that the pilot gradually pitches up the nose to slow the plane during the approach.

Yep, one of the principles of flight is that you can trade altitude for speed or speed for altitude. No doubt he made a short climb in order to slow the plane before landing. Without power he was pretty much reduced to those basics.

Also a pilot, though I've flown nothing bigger than a 172. Same laws of physics are in effect, though.

My daughters saw a plane "taking off" from the Hudson River on the walk home from school. Just a glimpse down 104th Street of a plane, nose up several yards above the water. I missed it and rather dorkily started explaining flight paths along the river. Found out what really happened an hour later from a neighbor.

Pilots know that altitude = safety.Altitude and speed give you more range and therefore more landing options in the event of total or even partial power loss.

Keep in mind that disciplined pilots have a running dialogue going on in their heads especially during the most critical phases of flight-landing and takeoff. ("If I lost power right now at this altitude could I make a 180 and get back to the field? If not, where's my next best option?") etc. The flight crew discusses their emergency options for their specific locale during their pre-flight preparation. They would know how much altitude would give them a lot of options. It seems logical that you would turn directly back to the departure field, but without sufficient airspeed and altitude you can eat up a lot of that altitude just executing the 180 degree turn. By then you could be out of palatable options.

It appears from the flight track that his first turn was back toward the field so he probably thought it might be make-able. Being in the left seat and in a left turn it also gave him the opportunity to scan other possibilities during the turn.

The little jig to the left may have been a maneuver to bleed off altitude (S-turn) so that he could "safely" set it in the straight part of the river before it curves. He might have overshot if he didn't get it lower and slower. I don't thing he was avoiding the bridge-I doubt it was a factor. You can see he was doing about 150 at 300 feet as the last readout. Since he would have pitched up slowly to parallel the surface of the river he probably was going "only" about 115 or 120 when he touched down.

Good fortune that the river was not choppy, and the few miles per hour that the river was moving downstream helped minimize the impact slightly.

Hell of a pilot. He had to think fast. Rehearsing the "what if" before each flight is key.

Not being from NYC myself and looking at the flightpath, could anybody explain to me why the pilot made a turn instead of just going straight on and landing in the Hudson river at the height of e.g. Ossining?Great job in any case by the flight crew!

alright, in hindsight, however (and I'm NOT blaming him for not knowing this) -- he COULD HAVE gone back to LGA!

a quick look at the map shows you that both TEB and LGA runways were within his reach (he ditched past lincoln tunnel, further from washington bridge than either of those airports.

the Teterborough METAR on that day showed wind 330 at 13kt, so a pretty nice wind that would have helped the pilot reach LGA after he turned back over bronx. on the other hand, IF the flightpath or speed were mismanagedfor some reason, then he would have ended in the lake short of LGA, but with a tailwind -- not an ideal situation.

frankly, cpt. Sully didn't have enough time to calmly analyze all this and did the right thing. look, his co-pilot wasn't equally busy and he forgot to flip the ditch switch...

pawel (faa licenced pilot)

ps. will Americans ever acknowledge that the European designers of A320 were equally instrumental in the "miracle"?oh, never mind :-)

that's me, overflying the ditching area in Sept 2007. as you see, it's damn difficult to judge if you'll reach La Guardia or JFK or even Teterborough (were I took off from before that photo). There are just too many buildings you don't want to mess with.. with or without 9.11 in mind.

Though this pilot was experienced as few others are, and he had been a fighter pilot, acquainted with most any thinkable limit of flying, he had not the experience that might have taken him back to La Guardia in an uneventful landing, saving both passengers ànd the plane. A glider pilot might have been able to do that, which he wasn't. The difference is the engine-off target landing that LGA would have required, while ditching the Hudson only needed correct preparation for a crash landing, with plenty of place ahead instead. He would have required to adapt the length of his flight path and his descent by taking lazy S-curves towards LGA to target the treshold of the runway. You need gliding experience for that.

The only thing that I find a bit disturbing is the loss of altitude (1200 feet) right after the bird strike. Altitude = time in a situation like that, and losing 1200ft in about a minute was pretty costly in terms of both time to make a good decision and OPTIONS!

Had he maintained altitude and decelerated to his aircraft's best glide speed, he would have had more time and more options, I think, other than putting the jet in the river. At best glide speed, I'm GUESSING (somewhat educated with 20 years of flying and 8000+ hours) that the glide ratio on that airplane is about 20-25:1 (for every 1 foot of altitude lost, you will fly 20-25 feet horizontally). SO, if he had maintained roughly his 3,000ft altitude at the time of the birdstrike, that would equate to about 60,000 - 75,000ft horizontally, or 10 to 12.5 nautical miles...enough to get to TEB and certainly enough to get back to LGA, even with the turn. They were taking off to the north so the winds must have been out of the north...that would have pushed him toward LGA, but would also have made it harder to stop once he got on the ground.

When it is all said and done, everyone lived and that is commendable, to say the least. Had there been fatalities, which it's amazing that there wasn't, Sully's decision to throw it in the river would have been picked apart without mercy.

fuel fuel tanks? the onlyreason the plane did not sinkis that the wings were hallow andempty...enough boyancy to even keep the flooded fuselage afloat.Even the jet took off withoutfuel or "Sully" dumped it in theascent. Fuel starvation! Some "hero"!

Every crash landing in the historyof aviation has required thepilot to "dump fuel" prior to impact. Has anyone heard an orderfrom Captain "Sully" to jetison thefuel in the tanks. No. Why? Thejet ran out of fuel after ascendingto 3200 feet...either it had aninsuffiecient quantity to reachCharlotte, NC on takeoff or "Sully"dumped the fuel a la "Thunderball"as the other crew member flew theaircraft. Sullenberger needs to bein prison, but instead, to saveUS Airways, the Media is painting this monster as a "hero" worthy ofthe highest awards and acclaim.

If "Al Qaeda" had flown a fullairliner within 900 feet of crashing into and destroying theGeorge Washington Bridge, theHomeland Security would be sending team after team into the area..martiallaw would be in effect in NYC...again...Instead, CaptainDimwitty Sullenberger, a man whoowns a "disaster company" is hailed as a "hero"...stop with theHYPOCRISY

I feel the actions of the flight crew of Flight 1549 in the first 30 seconds after the bird strike over Bronx, NY sealed its fate for a VERY risky water landing in the Hudson River. A maneuver that statistically is not as successful as the outcome that Flight 1549 was fortunate enough to attain. All's well that ends well, but here is some data that may open up some eyes.

The highest altitude reported on the flight from Radar is 3200ft. MSL at a speed of 194kts (3.3NM/min). The plane hit the birds near the Bronx Botanical Gardens. Here's the problem...In a span of 1.28 miles after the strike, the airplane lost 1,200 feet!!! At 3.3NM/min.(194kts), that is a descent rate of 3,130ft./min!! In a glider, altitude = time. In this case, it also meant OPTIONS. Losing that 1,200 feet exhausted options in a hurry. Bear in mind, he lost both engines at 3 knots above best glide speed for the A320 (weight dependent, of course). In all actuality, the actual jet demonstrated that day a BETTER THAN 25:1 glide ratio. It crossed over the Inwood Hill park at approximately 1800ftMSL and it's last radar ping was at 300ft. MSL around 22nd. St. in Manhattan...a lateral distance of approximately 44,700ft. This is actually a 29.8:1 glide ratio!!

The distance from the Bronx Botanical Gardens to TEB is 7.2NM (43,200ft). From 3,200ft. MSL where the bird strike occurred, the minimum glide ratio required would have been 13.5:1 to get to TEB. If he elected to go to LGA, it would have required a turn, which would have given an unknown penalty in glide performance. Let's just say, for argument's sake, that over Inwood Hill Park, which is 5.6NM from LGA that he had descended down to 2800ft. The minimum glide performance required to make it back to LGA would have been only 12:1. Remember, he demonstrated almost 30:1 in his glide down the Hudson!! There was also a tailwind component tht would have aided the jet had they decided to return to LGA.

Sully was correct, he probably couldn't have made it to either of those airports, but that is because he gave up some VERY precious altitude in the seconds immediately following the bird strike. Memory item #1 in a Dual engine failure in a Falcon below 35,000 feet is to "establish best glide speed"...Sully descended and accelerated! OOOOPS! He got rid of his best two options when he did that. If there were fatalities, this would be getting picked apart without mercy.

On the flipside, as a smarter and less skeptical colleague of mine pointed out, Sully may have just been "managing his energy", and there are probably waaaay more variables than just "rise over run" here...such as were the fan blades still spinning on that engine? If not, then he had two GIANT barn doors hanging out there in his slipstream.

Once again, everybody lived. Hard to second guess an outcome like that, and at the end of the day, that is really all that matters. I guess I just try to see the other side of the coin about things...

Now that the raw audio betweeen Cactus 1549 and TRACON is published, I'm wondering if you could somehow superimpose that to your map..... This would explain things such as at what point did Capt. Sullenberger decide to turn back to LaGuardia, at what point did he abandon that idea, etc.

Fuel is less dense than water, hence there is no reason to assume that because the aircraft could float the fuel tanks were empty. Although empty tanks are more buoyant than full ones, full ones would still be buoyant in water.

I agree with Mowimbi: the pilot is a sailplane instructor. S-turns are one way that we sailplane pilots control our flight path. The possibility that the turns are an attempt to shorten the flight path while staying close to the river cannot be excluded.

I was just trying to recreate this in Google Earth using the new "fly-through" feature. I had the same data you had. But I think it's wrong. From what I read, it crashed next to the Intrepid, a little north of the Lincoln Tunnel. This data is showing it still flying at the time it crossed the Lincoln Tunnel. Do you have any idea why the TRACON / FlightAware data would be off?

The Intrepid is at pier 86, or 46th Street. 1549 touched down a little north of there, at about 50th Street between piers 88 and 92 according to reports at the time and everything I've seen since then.

Thanks for the help. At first I thought your flight path didn't make sense, since you drew the path curving back inward, when really all we had were 3 data points that could have made a straight line. But I combined that path with the FAA audio recordings and the path makes perfect sense, as he started to turn toward LaGuardia, than back toward NJ, before finally going down the Hudson. I posted my KMZ file at www.davinciglobal.com/flight1549/flight1549.html (requires Google Earth 5 to play). It combines the flight path with 8 channels of FAA audio.

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Ok I am a Pilot and Capt. Sully did what was trained to do maintained best glide speed 192 Knots was in a left turn from take off hit birds at 2800 Heading about north the vector from atc was to 220 Deg that lines up with the Hudson nicely but he had to decide Teterboro or not then he had to dodge the bridge obstcle and in the turn gained 100 not uncommon a little sloppy but ok under the pressure not bad his Copilot was very busy too he has to call all proceedures while the capt flys the airplane thats how it works no I in Team Work.As smooth as it looks it was harder to deal with the Panic strickened passengers hat off to the Flight attendents too.

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