One of the more exciting moments in mid-2017 was getting David Robertson back from the White Sox.

Ostensibly, Robertson could have been considered the third most important piece with Todd Frazier to shore up third base and Tommy Kahnle producing a better season to date. But there’s nothing like getting a welcomed old face back in the fold.

By the end of 2018, Robertson proved himself to be the best part exchanged in the deal. He followed up his rebound in 2017 with another strong season as he cemented himself in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust in relief.

Fireman Dave

Robertson’s numbers as a whole were slightly down in 2018, though they still trumped his 2016 performance. His ERA increased from 1.84 to 3.23 while his FIP went up from 2.57 to 2.97. Down below, you’ll see more about why his numbers decreased, but it was still a strong season for the reliable righty.

Robertson was used more as a traditional late-inning reliever to begin the year, not pitching before the seventh inning until mid-May. That didn’t preclude him from high leverage innings, just meant that Boone was going to others (Chad Green, for instance) in earlier fireman roles.

As time went on, Robertson found himself in different spots, particularly after the Yankees added Zach Britton. Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman were cemented as the eighth and ninth inning guys, giving Robertson the opportunity to put out earlier fires.

The right-hander finished the year with 33 shutdowns and 11 meltdowns, the latter a career-worst, though just by a hair. He produced a Win Probability Added of 1.54 for the season.

Trending Up, Trending Down

A funny thing happened in Robertson’s age-33 season: His velocity actually increased! He averaged 92.3 mph on his heater and 83.8 mph on his curveball. that was his hardest fastball since 2011 and his hardest curveball ever.

Despite his increased velocity and reliance on his curveball (more on that later), Robertson saw an increase in contact against him. However, a lot of it on out-of-the-zone pitches. That may have been simply due to hitters chasing his curve. Thanks to the increased contact, he didn’t get as many swings and misses out of the zone, perhaps due to hitters sitting off-speed.

As a whole, Robertson wasn’t quite as dominant in 2018, which comes down to his fundamentals. His prodigious strikeout rate fell by 6.4 percent to 32.2 percent (still great!) while his walk rate went up 0.5 percent. He allowed one more home run. His 9.2 percent walk rate was his second-highest since 2011.

However, some of the 2017 performance had been smoke and mirrors. He posted a career-best 95 percent strand rate in his half season with the Yankees and that fell precipitously to 67.5 in 2018. Regardless, Robertson still posted strong numbers, maintaining an important role in the Bombers’ bullpen.

Experimentation and Adaptation

Like any veteran pitcher, Robertson has had to change over the years. Early on, it was adding a cutter to his mix skew his fastball-curveball approach. Now, he’s moved with baseball trends and thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs in career. He throws his heater (almost exclusively a cutter) just 42.5 percent of the time, down 5.9 percent from a year ago and 38.4 percent from its peak six seasons ago. Additionally, he’s worked in two-seamers and changed everything about how he pitched just a few seasons ago.

With fewer fastballs has come an increased reliance on his curveball. He throws the primary breaking pitch 47.4 percent of the time, eclipsing his fastball for the first time in his career. This isn’t something novel in that the rest of the league have encourage their pitchers to throw their best pitches more often.

Despite increased velocity, his fastball was less effective in 2018, producing a negative pitch value for just the second time (2016). On the other hand, his curveball was nearly or even more effective, depending on the source. He added some differentiation with his slider that he started experimenting with the last few years, tossing the harder breaking ball 14.4 percent of the time with good results.

One figures we’ll see more tinkering from Robertson as he gets older and utilizes a long career’s worth of wisdom in getting hitters out as his stuff lessens.

Postseason

I’ll drink to David Robertson in the playoffs. (Getty Images)

In the 2017 postseason, Robertson was used in all of the Yankees’ most important situations. He got 10 key outs in the Wild Card Game. He pitched with the Yankees leading by just one in three ALDS appearances. He helped keep the Yankees in striking distance in ALCS Game 2 and was asked to shut down Houston rallies in Games 4 and 6.

This season was decidedly different. Robertson threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with one walk and seven strikeouts, allowing no hits in the postseason. In his one inning in the Wild Card Game, he allowed two line drives but escaped unscathed.

However, there wasn’t really a high-leverage spot to give him. Dellin Betances usurped him as the most-trusted reliever in high leverage spots in the WCG and ALDS Game 2. Beyond those spots, Robertson was forced to pitch with the Yankees trailing. Not his fault nor should it be a mark against him. Circumstances made it so the Yankees couldn’t insert their best relievers in spots to win games.

(P.S. The photo above isn’t even close to the best David Robertson alcohol photo. Trust me.)

What’s Next?

Robertson’s four-year, $46 million deal he signed with the White Sox has lapsed and he is now a free agent. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one from the Yankees in 2014.

The 33-year-old reliever has made the odd move of representing himself in free agency, a decision he explained to MLB Trade Rumors. He said it had nothing to do with his agents and more about knowing himself better than anyone else:

“Being a guy that’s hung around long enough to know what I can offer a team and what I would like in return, I feel I’m best suited to have all the discussions necessary to figure out my next contract.”

It makes too much sense for Robertson to be back in pinstripes for the 2019 campaign. He’s proven to be one of the few relievers in baseball that stays at or near an elite level for years on end and he should get multiple years in a free agent deal. The Yankees, meanwhile, will need to bring back or add a reliever with both Robertson and Britton hitting the open market.

Pursuing Harper is “not part of the plan”

Right on schedule. According to Andy Martino, pursuing free agent Bryce Harper this offseason is “not part of the plan” for the Yankees. The Yankees are going to prioritize pitching this winter and Harper doesn’t really fit. That’s silly, of course, because you can always make room for a player like Harper. When’s the last time a player like this — a star caliber producer in his mid-20s — hit the open market? It’s been a very long time.

Anyway, like I said, this report is right on schedule. Day One of the offseason and the Yankees are downplaying their interest in the best free agent to hit the market in years? Textbook posturing. And you know, even if this is true and the Yankees are not planning to pursue Harper, things can change. I don’t think anyone in the front office had Giancarlo Stanton in mind at this time last winter. This report means nothing to me. A team downplaying interest in a free agent is Hot Stove 101 stuff.

Yankees are “lukewarm” on Machado

In addition to totally not having interesting in Harper (wink wink), the Yankees are only “lukewarm” on Manny Machado, reports Martino. Martino says the Yankees were put off by Machado’s postseason antics, specifically his dirty as hell kick of Jesus Aguilar and his unabashed admission that he’s never going to hustle. Machado has had the “dirty player” label for a while, dating back to when he threw his bat at the Athletics, but things really came to a head this October.

To me, the Yankees being put off my Machado’s postseason display is far more believable than simply not having interest in Harper because he might not fit the roster. It’s going to take a lot of money and a lot of years to sign Machado. If he’s playing dirty now and he’s not hustling right before his big free agent payday, what happens when he’s got that huge guaranteed contract? Teams have overlooked far worse things, of course, and Machado is a great player in his mid-20s. Dude’s going to get paid. But I can understand not liking what you saw in the postseason.

145 players become free agents

Earlier this morning 145 players officially became free agents, the MLBPA announced. Here’s the full list. As expected, eight Yankees are now free agents:

Several more players will become free agents later this week when their options are declined or they use their opt-outs. Brett Gardner could be among them. The Yankees have until Wednesday to exercise his $12.5M club option or buy him out for $2M. Honestly, neither outcome would surprise me.

No later than three weeks from yesterday, free agency will open and the 2018-19 offseason will really get underway. Well, at least in theory. MLB free agency tends to be slow-moving — that was especially true last winter — whereas other sports see a big rush of signings on Day One. Much like the MLB season, MLB free agency is a marathon, not a sprint.

According to both Joel Sherman and Buster Olney, the qualifying offer has been set at $17.9M for the upcoming offseason. That is up slightly from $17.4M last offseason. As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. Teams must make a free agent the qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

The Yankees have a small army of players due to becoming free agents this winter — eight players on their ALCS roster will be free agents and a ninth has an option — and, despite that, the qualifying offer will be a non-factor for them. None of those eight (or nine) players will get a qualifying offer. We can drop them into one of three buckets.

Not Eligible For The Qualifying Offer

Zach Britton

J.A. Happ

Adeiny Hechavarria

Lance Lynn

Andrew McCutchen

David Robertson

Neil Walker

A player must spend the entire regular season with his team to be eligible for the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, Hechavarria, Lynn, and McCutchen all came over in midseason trades and thus can not receive the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, and McCutchen would’ve been qualifying offer candidates otherwise. Hechavarria and Lynn wouldn’t have received the qualifying offer even if eligible. Their production doesn’t warrant it.

Also, thanks to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, players can only receive the qualifying offer once in their careers. The Yankees made Robertson the qualifying offer during the 2014-15 offseason and the Mets made Walker the qualifying offer during the 2016-17 offseason. Robertson rejected the qualifying offer and the Yankees received a draft pick, which they used on Kyle Holder, when he signed with the White Sox. Walker accepted the qualifying offer and returned to the Mets. Anyway, because they received the qualifying offer previously, Robertson and Walker are not eligible to receive it this winter despite spending the entire year in pinstripes.

Not Getting The Qualifying Offer

CC Sabathia

Sabathia is indeed eligible for the qualifying offer. He spent the entirety of this past season with the Yankees and he’s never received the qualifying offer before. Back when Sabathia first signed with the Yankees, the old Elias Type-A/Type-B free agent compensation system ruled the land. CC is eligible for the qualifying offer this winter.

That said, the Yankees are not giving Sabathia the qualifying offer. They didn’t give him one last offseason and there’s no reason to give him one this offseason. Sabathia would take that one-year, $17.9M contract in a heartbeat. He made $10M this season and, regardless of whether he re-signs with the Yankees or heads elsewhere, he figures to sign a similar one-year contract worth $10M-ish this winter. Sabathia’s no longer worth $17.9M a year. He’d take the qualifying offer. No doubt about it.

The Option Decision

Brett Gardner

Gardner has never been a free agent in his career and he might get the opportunity this winter. The Yankees hold a $12.5M club option on Gardner for next season — the option includes a $2M buyout, so it is effectively a $10.5M decision — and, if they decline the option, they’re not going to make him the qualifying offer. They wouldn’t pass on bringing him back for $12.5M only to give him a $17.9M offer, you know? Gardner would take the qualifying offer. Looking for more guaranteed money as a free agent, even spread across two or three years, would be pushing it.

* * *

The Yankees won’t tender any of their free agents the qualifying offer, but, in all likelihood, they’re going to win up signing a qualifying free agent. Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Adam Ottavino? I don’t know, but someone. (Manny Machado was traded at midseason and is ineligible for the qualifying offer.) Here are the compensation rules for teams that sign a qualified free agent:

Signing team paid luxury tax during most recent season: Forfeits second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.

All other teams: Forfeit second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money.

The Yankees sure as heck don’t receive revenue sharing money — they pay more into revenue sharing than any other team — and they successfully avoided paying luxury tax in 2018, which means they fall into the “all other teams” bracket. They’ll give up their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in bonus money for the 2019-20 international signing period for every qualified free agent. All first round picks are protected now.

The new free agent compensation rules are pretty lax these days — that is especially true now that the Yankees avoided paying luxury tax — and I can’t see how giving up your second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money would stop the Yankees from signing a qualifying free agent. Back in the day teams had to weigh giving up their first round pick to sign a mid-range guy. Now only the best of the best get the qualifying offer and you get to keep your first round pick. Free agent compensation is no real concern now.

Even with all those impending free agents, the Yankees do not have a qualifying offer candidate this offseason — only four of their nine possible free agents are even eligible for the qualifying offer — and the penalties to sign a qualified free agent are not harsh at all. If the Yankees don’t sign any of their final year arbitration-eligibles long-term this winter, they’ll have several qualifying offer candidates next season. This year though, nothing. The Yankees won’t gain any extra draft picks. They could lose some non-first rounders, however, and that is not a big deal.

We are still a few weeks away from the hot stove firing up, but already some free agent chatter is starting to trickle in. According to George King, impending free agent David Robertson wants to return to the Yankees next season, but he’s not going to take a discount to make it happen. (Nor should he.)

“I would like (a reunion) to happen, but I have to do what is best for me and my family,” said Robertson. In an unusual move, Robertson has parted ways with his agent and will represent himself this winter, reports Mark Feinsand. Huh. That doesn’t happen often. I wouldn’t advise it, but what do I know.

This past season was the final season on the four-year, $46M contract Robertson signed with the White Sox back in the day. It was the third largest reliever contract in history at the time it was signed and it is still one of the seven richest reliever contracts ever. Robertson is well-positioned to get another multi-year deal at eight figures annually.

The 33-year-old Robertson threw 69.2 innings with a 3.23 ERA (2.97 FIP) and strong strikeout (32.2%) and walk (9.2%) rates this past season. That is as David Robertson as it gets. The ERA was a shade high, otherwise everything was right in line with his career norms. It was the ninth straight season he’s made at least 60 appearances and thrown at least 60 innings.

Given the state of baseball, quality relievers have never been more in demand, and I can’t imagine the fact guys like Craig Kimbrel, Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, Kelvin Herrera, Jeurys Familia, and Andrew Miller will also be free agents will hurt the market. The market’s not flooded. Plenty of contenders need bullpen help. All those dudes are getting paid.

Last offseason Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and Brandon Morrow set the market for non-elite relievers at $9M+ annually and Robertson is a heck of a lot closer to elite right now than those guys last year. His opening ask this offseason could be three years at $15M per season and I don’t think it would be crazy. Start there and, if no team pays up, come down a bit.

Given his age (34 in April), it’s fair to worry that Robertson could soon decline, especially since he’s been a workhorse throughout his career. All those high-leverage innings take their toll. That said, every reliever is a risk, even the great ones. Robertson is steady, reliable, and unflappable. Not sure what more you could want in a bullpener. Re-sign him as soon as possible, Yankees.

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Battle of the Bullpens
In an series-opening “bullpen game”, the Yankees gave the Rays a taste of their own medicine with a 4-1 win on Monday. They used eight pitchers to get 27 outs and the results were bueno: two hits, one run and 13 strikeouts.

Sonny Gray was the lone guy that went more than one inning, and he also was the only one that allowed a hit while surrendering the one run. So we had seven pitchers who didn’t give up a hit … sounds like a #FunFact! Yes, the seven “hitless” pitchers is a franchise record for a single game.

And when you add in the fact that each of those seven guys went at least one inning … the Yankees are just the second team in MLB history to have at least seven players allow no hits while each pitching at least one inning in a game. Unsurprisingly, the only other instance came this season — two weeks prior to Monday’s game — when the Angels did it against the Rangers on September 11.

The other important statistical note from this game came in the eighth when Dellin Betances tossed a perfect frame with two groundouts and popout. What, no strikeout? Slacker, Dellin. That snapped his 44-game streak with at least one punchout, the longest streak by a relief pitcher in AL history, and one game shy of the second-longest single-season streak in MLB history set last year by Brewers reliever Corey Knebel. During the streak he struck out 44 percent of the batters he faced and had more than three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed.

El Kracken is Awaken
Gary Sanchez’s bat woke up momentarily on Tuesday, fueling a 9-2 win that moved the Yankees to 37 games above .500, a season-high mark and their most games above the redline since the end of the 2009 regular season (44 games, 103-59).

Sanchez was on base three times, with a walk, home run and a single, and drove in a season-high-tying four runs. Prior to this game, he had just six RBI in 19 games since coming off the DL on September 1.

(AP)

There is no sugar-coating Sanchez’s awful season, but there is one glimmer of optimism if you squint really hard. On the rare occasion that he does get a hit, he makes it count. With his homer on Tuesday, an astounding 56.9 percent (33 of 58) of his hits have gone for extra-bases. That would be the third-highest rate of extra-base hits per hit among the more than 1,000 player-seasons in Yankees history with at least 300 plate appearances. The two ahead of him: Babe Ruth in 1920 (57.6%) and Babe Ruth in 1921 (58.3%).

Luis Severino had a good-but-not-great outing, but he did provide a nice record-breaking note for us Yankeemetricians: His seven strikeouts gave him 450 since the start of 2017, the most ever by a Yankee pitcher in a two-season span. The previous record was set by Ron Guidry, when he struck out 449 guys spanning the 1978-79 seasons.

(USA Today)

Seven is not enough
On the verge of inching closer to homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game next week, the Yankees delivered one of their patented “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” games, losing 8-7 on Wednesday after blowing an early 3-0 lead.

Neil Walker put the Yankees on the board first, drilling a three-run homer in the top of the opening frame. After hitting three homers in his first 73 games (225 at-bats), he has eight homers in his last 38 games (116 at-bats). Each of his last five homers have given the Yankees a lead:

David Robertson put the game out of reach when he suffered a rare meltdown in the eighth inning, allowing five of the six batters he faced to reach base, with four of them coming around to score. It’s the first time in more than eight years that he allowed at least four runs while getting no more than one out in a game. That last time he did that was April 13, 2010 against the Angels; and the only other time he did it in his career was during his first month in the big leagues, on July 28, 2008 against the Orioles.

(AP)

Blowout wins are awesome
The Yankees capped off the series in Tampa with an ultra-satisfying 12-1 rout on Thursday, winning their first series at Tropicana Field in two years (September 20-22, 2016).

The bats exploded for 13 hits, including four #toomanyhomers, increasing their season total to 260 dingers. That’s tied with the 2005 Rangers for the second-most in a single season in MLB history and four shy of the record held by the 1997 Mariners. Now they get a chance to break the record this weekend … three games at Fenway … oh how sweet that would be.

They pounded the Rays early and often, racing out to an early 4-0 lead thanks to a #MiggyMantle three-run homer in the top of the first inning, his 27th of the season. It also gave him 90 RBI, and combined with his 43 doubles, he has put himself in some elite company. Andujar is one of seven rookies in MLB history to reach each of those totals — 90 RBI, 43 doubles and 27 homers — in a season:

Miguel Andujar (2018)

Albert Pujols (2001)

Nomar Garciaparra (1997)

Tony Oliva (1964)

Ted Williams (1939)

Joe DiMaggio (1936)

Hal Trosky (1934)

The Rookie of the Year award was first handed out in 1947; Pujols, Garciappara and Oliva — the other three besides Andujar to make this list since 1947 — each took home the ROY trophy in those years.

CC Sabathia delivered a masterful vintage performance in (probably) his final appearance of the regular season. He allowed one hit while striking out five over five scoreless innings, before getting ejected in the sixth following a revenge-plunking of Rays catcher Jesus Sucre. That lowered his ERA to 3.65 and upped his strikeout total to 140 this year. Only three other pitchers Yankee history have finished with that many strikeouts and that low an ERA in their age-37 season or older: Roger Clemens (2001), Mike Mussina (2006, 2008) and Hiroki Kuroda (2012, 2013).