London 2012 Olympics: Great Britain's men's road cyclists can get the ball rolling with Team GB's first gold medal

There are two Dream Teams in action this weekend and the first dives straight
into the Olympic fray on Saturday morning in a men’s road race that could
produce as many fireworks as the opening ceremony as Great Britain try and
work Mark Cavendish into a sprint finish on the Mall in the afternoon.

Ready: Great Britain's Mark Cavendish is ready to win his team's first goldPhoto: PA

On a course not entirely suited to the world champion it will need something very special from Cavendish and his four colleagues, but all those concerned have displayed such panache, remorseless excellence and grace under pressure in recent years that expectation rather than mere hope hangs in the air.

It would be a stunning coup nonetheless. Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, David Millar, Ian Stannard and Cavendish might be in the form of their lives but despite that impressive firepower the Olympic road race always comes with a public health warning: it can break your heart and leave you in pieces.

It is the most unpredictable race in cycling with rank outsiders such as Fabio Casartelli, in 1992, and Pascal Richard four years later slipping in under the radar for shock victories.

Whether by accident or design this year’s course is poised beautifully on the cusp of the comfort zone of just about every rider involved.

It is much lumpier than the sprinters like with nine climbs averaging five per cent up Box Hill in mid-race, but the finish is kinder and there is a 40 kilometres run-in from the Box Hill circuit to the Mall to possibly chase down the breaks.

The one day specialists love the Box Hill circuit but are fearful that a couple of tough sprinters might survive, while even a grand tour rider like Vincenzo Nibali, third in the recent Tour de France, has been talking up his chances, believing this is a course where stamina and endurance will be paramount.

So how can Great Britain and Cavendish – described as “Plan A and the rest of the alphabet” by Dave Brailsford – succeed? In a word they need to “dominate” and possibly race the 250km like a team time-trial which is why they have picked four of the biggest ’engines’ in world, let alone, British cycling.

With the supreme fitness of their Tour de France stars and Stannard, who spends thousands of kilometres at the front of the peloton every season for Team Sky, GB need to make the race so extraordinarily hard and fast that nobody – especially the brilliant one-day classics riders like Tom Boonen, Fabian Cancellara, Philippe Gilbert or Peter Sagan – can find another gear can and get away on a dangerous break.

That’s eminently possible on the flat but what about Box Hill?

Nine laps of just over 16km with 162 metres of climbing per lap. Cavendish has trained on the circuit every free weekend this year and prefers not to use the words ’climb’ or ’hill’. Instead, he has identified nine testing five minute ’sprint efforts’ every lap followed by 15 vital minutes recovering lost ground.

The zigzag ascent is narrow and Great Britain must use their horsepower to muscle their way to the front as they approach every time. In that way, as the stronger climbers take over, Cavendish will hopefully slip down to the middle of the bunch whereas if he starts in the middle he could soon be out the back.

The other four British riders will form a protective pod around him, riding at his pace not theirs, and as soon as they crest the climb they will go to work again riding in time-trial fashion for the next 15 minutes to get Cavendish back to the front of the peloton for the next climb. And so on.

Exhausting, staccato work that only exceptional athletes can undertake.

In an ideal world GB and Cavendish will exit Box Hill after the ninth climb in one select bunch in which case it is time to get very excited.

But this is the Olympics and the world’s best riders. Don’t be surprised if a small select breakaway containing those one day specialists have somehow broken free and are two or three minutes ahead. In which case its time to get very nervous.

A Keystone Kops chase is very possible as the race hurtles to a thrilling finish.

In which case Cavendish will tuck in behind his team who might find themselves joined in the task by Germany, Australia and USA whose best bet for a medal also lies in a sprint finish. An unholy and strictly temporary alliance, but needs must.

“Anything this ’big’ gives you nerves,” admits Cavendish. “I’m incredibly proud to be British and part of this team at a home Games in London.

"I want to make the most of that opportunity. The other guys do too.

"In the Tour de France you’ve got 21 days to try and do something, here it’s a one-off hit. You have to try to execute first time.”

Frankly, it is too close to call but one thing can be said for certain.

If Cavendish and GB can succeed it will be a stunning coup, a slam dunk of a performance worthy of LeBron James and the other Dream Team down the road at the Basketball Arena.

Danger men: who will challenge Cavendish?

Peter Sagan Versatile young Slovak who won three stages on his Tour de France debut this season. Can win in the break and can take the sprinters on. Probably starts as favourite.

Tom Boonen Belgium’s former world champion is a sprinter-classics hybrid who was in sparkling form in the classics earlier this year and opted out of the Tour de France to concentrate on the Olympics. Recently cracked a rib in a crash but says it will not affect him.

André Greipel Powerful German who has flourished since he left HTC-Highroad two years ago, where he was in the shadow of Cavendish. Strong sprinter who is better at getting over hills than most, he will have Tony Martin working hard to ensure a sprint finish.

Matt Goss Another former colleague of Cavendish’s who had to go elsewhere. Runner-up at the world championships last year. Supported by a strong and versatile Australian team.

Fabian Cancellara Who says the race will finish in a sprint? The one-day specialists also sniff a win. Switzerland’s Cancellera is dreaming of a road-race/time-trial double while Belgium’s Philippe Gilbert, Australia’s Simon Gerrans and Italy’s Vincenzo Nibali fancy their chances a little.