Kerry may become defense secretary

Tuesday

Nov 13, 2012 at 8:45 AMNov 13, 2012 at 8:58 AM

By Mark Landler THE NEW YORK TIMES

For months, the Beltway parlor game about who will succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state has revolved around two names: Susan E. Rice, the American ambassador to the United Nations, and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.

But now that President Barack Obama's re-election has made the exercise real rather than hypothetical, both front-runners for the most coveted job in his Cabinet are dogged by issues that could complicate their path to Clinton's State Department office.

Rice, an outspoken, ambitious diplomat with close ties to Obama, would face stiff resistance on Capitol Hill, where she has come under withering criticism from Republicans for asserting that the deadly assault on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, may have been a spontaneous protest rather than a terrorist attack.

Kerry, who is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and prepped Obama for his debates with Mitt Romney, holds a Senate seat that the White House worries could fall into Republican hands if he gave it up to become the nation's chief diplomat.

Both Rice and Kerry have a reservoir of good will in the Oval Office. But politics will inevitably play a part in Obama's decision, especially in the wake of the sex scandal that brought down David H. Petraeus as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

The decision, administration officials said, will likely hinge on whether Obama would rather risk a bruising confirmation battle for Rice or the loss of Kerry's seat, which could be picked up by Scott P. Brown after the loss of his own seat last week.

''The question is, does the president want to launch a major fight with Congress over his choice of secretary of state?" said Aaron David Miller, a longtime diplomat who is vice president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

The Senate and House have scheduled hearings on Benghazi this week, which will keep the heat on Rice as the White House begins its deliberations. At least one influential Republican, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, has already come out against her.

''I'm not entertaining promoting anybody that I think was involved with the Benghazi debacle," Graham said Sunday on "Face the Nation" on CBS. "Susan Rice needs to be held accountable."

The White House stoutly defends Rice, noting that in her remarks on Benghazi, she was reading from a briefing prepared by the intelligence agencies. The administration, citing new evidence, subsequently confirmed that the attack was an act of terrorism.

''Anyone who opposes Susan, based on one day's comments, will have to reconcile that with what the intelligence said on that day," said an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

In the unforgiving climate of Washington, though, Kerry might profit from Rice's misfortune. He would likely breeze through a confirmation hearing with his Senate colleagues. And he has been a loyal soldier for the administration on a variety of issues. In 2009, the White House dispatched Kerry to Afghanistan, where he helped talk President Hamid Karzai into accepting a runoff election. In the Senate, Kerry has pushed for Obama initiatives like the New START treaty with Russia.

With his patrician bearing and Massachusetts roots, he was an obvious stand-in for Romney during debate preparation. While the president's lackluster first debate almost capsized his campaign, his aides said they did not blame Kerry.

Nor does the loss of his Senate seat appear quite as problematic as it did before last Tuesday. Brown, who was defeated by Elizabeth Warren, left the door open to another run. But some political analysts in Massachusetts say he might be more inclined to run for governor, given that the state once elected a fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republican — Romney — to that post. Even if he did run for the Senate, Brown would face a robust bench of Democrats.

Among the potential candidates for Kerry's seat is Gov. Deval Patrick, who is close to Obama. On Friday, Patrick and his wife, Diane, flew to Washington for a private dinner with Obama and his wife, Michelle, at the White House.

Patrick may have his eye on a Cabinet post like attorney general. But there are other formidable Democrats, like Rep. Michael E. Capuano and Martha Coakley, who lost to Brown but has since rehabilitated her image as the state attorney general.

''I think the administration could feel relatively confident that they will hold on to the seat," said Thomas Whalen, a political historian at Boston University. "When you look back on Brown, it was a special election against an exceptionally weak Democratic opponent."

Weighing against Kerry, officials said, is that he would be replaced as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee by Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey. With his Cuban roots and hostility toward the Castro regime, Menendez would likely impede any diplomatic overture by Obama.

Representatives of Kerry and Rice declined to comment on their prospects, while the White House said it would not to comment on personnel deliberations.

Clinton has long insisted that she would not serve during a second term, but she recently left open the possibility of staying on the job long enough for a successor to win confirmation. That could allow the White House to delay Rice's nomination to allow the passions over Benghazi to subside.

Kerry and Rice are not the only names in circulation. Thomas E. Donilon, the national security adviser, is been mentioned, though officials said he would prefer to stay put.

There has even been speculation in foreign-policy circles that the messy departure of Petraeus might prod Obama to consider nominating a Republican, like former Sen. Chuck Hagel; a hawkish independent, like Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman; or even Jon M. Huntsman Jr., who was Obama's envoy to Beijing before running for the Republican presidential nomination. Any of those names would reduce the partisan cast of the Cabinet and perhaps mollify Republicans.

For all the political static around Rice, however, she shares many of Obama's instincts on foreign policy. She was among those who lobbied successfully for the United States to intervene during the civil war in Libya. Her ties to Obama — she advised him during the 2008 campaign — could also enable her to hold her own in an administration where foreign policy has been tightly centralized at the White House.

''You've got a guy in the White House who is the most withholding president in memory," Miller, of the Woodrow Wilson Center, said. "She has the best chance of breaking that withholding pattern."