Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Instant Trade Analysis: Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants

GM
Ruben Amaro and the Phillies started the second act of their rebuilding process
by trading outfielder Hunter Pence to the offense-starved San Francisco Giants,
just minutes after shipping fellow OF Shane Victorino to the Los AngelesDodgers. Amaro has single-handedly fortified the NL West by addressing the
needs of the two contenders for the division crown.

In
Pence, SF oddly enough gets a bat and glove very similar to former Giants
outfielder and financial millstone Aaron Rowand. The now former Phillie has
proven to be an annual 25 homer threat, having hit an anomalous 25 every season
between 2008 and 2010, with 22 in 2011 and 17 this year. He's a near lock for a
performance of around a .280 batting average, 90 runs, 25 homers of course and
90 RBI. Pence has shown some plus speed, but his stolen base numbers have
tapered off as he's gotten closer to 30. Defensively, he'll fit in very well
alongside Melky Cabrera in left and Angel Pagan in center. The Giants could
very well have the most steady defensive outfield unit in the NL West, along
with their rivals in Southern California.

His
effect on the Giants lineup should be significant, but not exactly because he's
that much of an offensive difference-maker. Overall, Pence is a very, very good
complimentary player, but not the type of offensive force that can transform a
lineup around him, like how both Hanley Ramirez is doing now on the Dodgers, or
Manny Ramirez did four seasons ago. He'll hit in the middle of the lineup for
the Giants, surrounded by Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera. Like
Sandoval and Cabrera, Pence is merely a borderline or fringe All-Star who is
there to simply prop up slugging catcher Posey, rather than form a deadly
middle of the order threat, like the Dodgers' Kemp/Ethier/Ramirez trio, or the
killer Hamilton/Beltre/Cruz mashing unit in Texas. Hunter will definitely help
an 11th ranked NL offense in SF, both in that he's a well-above average player,
and by who he's replacing.

As
seemingly always with the Giants since Barry Bonds left town over five years
ago, GM Brian Sabean has allocated most of his resources to pitching, rather
than creating a competent offense. Of course, this seemed to work two years ago
when the world collapsed upon itself, as Cody Ross won the NLCS MVP and the San
Francisco Giants opened up the gateway to the depths ofHell and won the World Series. Even in spite
of their title, the Giants continue to disappoint the baseball watching world
at large. SF should be busy establishing themselves as the next dynasty with
their pitching, much like the Yankees did in the late nineties behind a
dominant staff, a fantastic pen and of course, that juggernaut offensive
lineup. The Giants don't have the same type of checkbook that New York GM Brian
Cashman had at his disposal, so Sabean struggles to cobble together another
borderline feeble lineup season to season. The best part of this trade might be
that Pence is under contract next season as well, albeit for nearly $14 million
a year. I'd expect the Giants to try and sign him long-term, to a deal
reminiscent of Aaron Rowand's four-year, $60 million dollar pact. Pence might
not be worth that type of money on the open market at large, but in the context
of a SF team that always seems to be scrambling for hitters, it could be a shrewd
deal in the future, relative to their usual situation.

The
price to get Pence, like in the Giants' trade for rental player Carlos Beltran
a year ago for stud prospect Zach Wheeler, was steep. RP Seth Rosin is a
6'6" minor leaguer whose 10.6 K/9 and 3:1 K/BB ratio are staggering for
such a young player. C/1B Tommy Joseph is only 21 years old, and with a current
.260 hitter in double-A, but will presumably have the chance to supplant
incumbent Carlos Ruiz in a couple of years. OF Schierholtz is a perfectly
capable fourth outfielder, but not more than that. He's gotten every chance to
succeed in the Bay, but has time and time again proven that he's not capable of
every day duty.

Again,
like the Victorino trade, Ruben Amaro had to restock the cupboard for the
Phillies, so trading Pence for a couple of young studs, no matter if their
ceiling spelled out "superstar", was important. It was clear during
the middle of the season that Philadelphia was not going to resign the Flyin'
Hawaiian, so trading a player in Victorino who only had two months left for a
non-playoff team was the most logical alternative. The only reason to trade a
29 year-old like Pence that could help a presumably reloaded and hopefully
healthier Phillies team next season on the other hand, is the climbing payroll
in Eastern PA. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins
and Jonathan Papelbon are all signed up next year for a combined $100 million
Filling out the rest of the roster and keeping Pence for $14 million, and then
resigning him for a deal that would pay the man the same amount over four or
five seasons, would put the Phils into luxury tax territory. Perhaps Ruben
Amaro saw Pence as I've described on this post: an excellent offensive and
defensive player, but certainly not a franchise guy. Trading him now, with a
year left on his deal, might have been the best haul they could have gotten for
him.

All
in all, it's a smart deal for both sides. The Phillies weren't likely to keep
Pence for the price he was going to go for, especially seeing that they'll need
to spend that type of money for a hitter that they could build an offense
around, looking at how Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are trending downward
negatively. The Giants had to do something when looking at a Dodgers' lineup
that now soundly eclipses their own, and both a bullpen and rotation to match
the power arms in San Francisco. Trading for Pence keeps the Bruce Bochy's team
neck and neck with the Dodgers for the NL West crown. Though in my supremely
unbiased viewpoint, I think LA has emerged as the division favorite, as well as
perhaps the National League favorite to get to the World Series, the Giants
have done everything they can to make sure it's a fight to the finish. I see
this trade, along with their excellent addition of surprising NL MVP candidate
Cabrera in the offseason (which, to my dismay, I trashed at the time), giving
SF the wherewithal to challenge the Dodgers, and at the very least, a wild card
spot.