Scotland vote: just kicking disaster down the road?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — If at first you don’t secede, try and try again.

Scotland may have failed at getting its independence this time around, but a future referendum on a separate Scottish state shouldn’t be ruled out. For the first time in Scotland, the 16-and 17-year olds were given a chance to vote in Thursday’s poll and the teenagers spoke with one clear voice: independence. According to a snap poll by Lord Ashcroft, 71% of the below 18-year-old voters were in favor of breaking away from the more than 300-year old United Kingdom, seen as already laying the groundwork for a second referendum.

“The only age group in Scotland that has consistently supported the ‘no’ side is the over-65s. As these people die and the pro-independence youth cohort grows, pressure for another poll may increase,” said Marshall Gittler, head of global FX strategy at IronFX, in a note.

He also pointed to Quebec in Canada, where the first “no” to independence in 1980 was followed by a fresh poll 15 years later. The pro-Canada camp won by a narrow margin.

“That possibility might give the pound some risk premium, although to be fair, financial markets in general have notoriously short memories,” Gittler said.

Scotland’s first minister and leader of the pro-independence campaign, Alex Salmond, pledged ahead of the ballot that another vote would not be held for a “generation” if the ‘no’ side won. However, in his concession speech, Salmond hinted that a second poll could be on the cards eventually, according to British media.

“Scotland has by a majority decided not, at this stage, to become an independent country,” he said.

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