Programmed for failure?

Pranab Mukherjee as prime minister or Congress working president could do good for UPA-2, says N.V.Subramanian.

By N.V. Subramanian (9 December 2011)

9 December 2011: If the Congress has to have a fighting chance in the 2014 general elections (unless they are advanced), Pranab Mukherjee should be made the prime minister or the party's working president at the earliest.

The importance of Pranab Mukherjee cannot be overestimated.
Prime-ministership, of course, is one thing. But this writer suspects the Union finance minister may not want to be Congress working president unless he is given complete freedom of action and full powers.
Pranab Mukherjee as PM will be more successful than the man he will succeed. That is not saying much. But the Congress cannot expect very much more either, and the only other choice is Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi will not become PM although it's his for the asking. And the Gandhi scion cannot change the environment in favour of the Congress in two years.
Nor has Mukherjee a magic wand. But he is likely to do more good for the Congress than either Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi. Pranab Mukherjee's special quality is his wide acceptance by the political class that considers Manmohan Singh and Rahul as outsiders.
Mukherjee is tried and tested. After a long career as a Rajya Sabha politician, he dared to fight Lok Sabha elections and won. Lok Sabha politicians are respected by the rest of the political class.
The important qualities that Pranab Mukherjee brings to the table are political standing, peaceableness and moderation. At a time when most Congress politicians have no friends in the opposition or carry credibility, Mukherjee has plenty of both.
The opposition heeds to him. It respects him. It values his political judgments. If Mukherjee becomes PM, confrontations between the ruling side and opposition will become minimal and manageable, and Parliament will function smoothly.
What the political class and the country at large are looking for is a prime minister who is in charge. Mukherjee will be a strong prime minister. Politics will gain precedence and mediate reforms, anti-corruption measures and other pressing governance issues better than now. The retail FDI fiasco may not have happened if Pranab Mukherjee were PM.
Would Mukherjee make a visionary PM? Hard to tell. But if any politician in the Congress can claim to know the country in some depth, it is Mukherjee. He can put his vast and varied experience in government to good use. Barring home, he has held every other major Union portfolio.
At the very least, he will return competence to government. The government will speak the language of politics. The cabinet will be united. And with Mukherjee leading, the allies will cooperate.
But there is a problem. Because Pranab Mukherjee is such an able politician, Sonia Gandhi may baulk from making him PM. There were certain well-known factors -- too well-known to be repeated -- that favoured Manmohan Singh as PM. He has failed. The disconnect between him and the political class (aside from voters) is wide. In the Congress party, itself, he has no backers. Almost certainly, he will ride the Congress to ruin in 2014.
But is that a smaller risk than replacing him with a relatively unknown commodity like Pranab Mukherjee who is independent-minded and may make a rather good PM? Difficult to say. If Pranab Mukherjee is given a two-year mandate (2012-2014), he would be satisfied, and could surge Congress hopes in the elections. That may assuage Sonia's concerns about Rahul's future.
But if Pranab Mukherjee is not rewarded for pulling the government out of successive political blunders, UPA-2 may sink deeper into the morass. It is unbelievable that the Congress has no politician who can match Pranab Mukherjee's stature.
If prime-ministership is out, will Pranab Mukherjee settle for the Congress working president's post? Nobody has offered that post to him, at least not yet. Currently, it doesn't exist. Rahul Gandhi was mentioned for it. If Rahul turns it down, then Pranab Mukherjee is the only option.
The Congress party has a tradition of having working presidents. But it is Arjun Singh who made it such a powerful position under Rajiv Gandhi. As working president, Pranab Mukherjee will be successful only if he is powerful. That will depend on his direct association with Sonia Gandhi minus Ahmed Patel & Co. Sonia is far from well and any competent and purposive working president will accumulate powers.
Will that be tolerated? Highly unlikely. If Manmohan Singh remains PM, he may not like to accept political directions from Pranab Mukherjee. P.Chidambaram (assuming he stays) would resent his orders, if any. And within the party, dissenting voices may grow. After all, Arjun Singh was removed when he was seen to have grown too potent.
But the Congress party is also sinking. Sonia Gandhi has lost her magic. She is not well. Rahul Gandhi has not made the grade. And the Manmohan Singh government is not helping matters. Its failure is wrecking the Congress's chances in 2014. If Pranab Mukherjee is too risky as PM, why not make him Congress working president?
Shouldn't he be better utilized than now?
Knowing the Congress leadership, it may reject both options. But that way, it is programming itself for disaster in the next generation elections.
N.V.Subramanian is Editor, www.NewsInsight.net, and writes internationally on strategic affairs. He has authored two novels, University of Love (Writers Workshop, Calcutta) and Courtesan of Storms (Har-Anand, Delhi). Email: envysub@gmail.com.

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