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Until my Belfast-born barber explained the critical role of midfield play in soccer, the game was as indecipherable to me as hieroglyphics were to archeologists before Pierre François Bouchard discovered the Rosetta Stone in 1799. To sensible investors, negotiations in Washington to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff are no doubt equally confusing. So let me explain some of the nuances of the great game now under way.

First, the only Democrat involved in the negotiations with the GOP congressional leadership who matters is President Barack Obama. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi represents the far-left fringe of the Democratic Party. Hers is a minor voice in this debate because compromise requires both political parties to move to a middle ground. Comments by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in the course of the heated negotiations likewise should be discounted, if not ignored, because ultimately the Nevada senator will follow Obama's lead.

Second, closely monitor the words and behavior of the president to ascertain if he is truly engaged in the discussions. So far, it looks as if he is. If, however, Obama shifts into campaign mode, flying endlessly from state to state on Air Force One to enlist public support for his negotiating positions, then he will not be behaving seriously, and we may be headed off the cliff. As a Republican Capitol Hill insider puts it, the voters in Iowa won't be casting ballots for a fiscal-cliff compromise; members of Congress will be casting the nays and ayes. Obama must stay in the White House and court those who actually will vote on a deal, not their constituents.

Third, pay close attention to House Speaker John Boehner. He is in a stronger position within his party than he was prior to the presidential election because voters clearly sent a message that they want elected officials to compromise on major issues, not engage in endless gridlock. Boehner single-handedly almost consummated a "grand" budget deal with Obama in July 2011, but presidential electioneering by both parties scuttled an agreement. No one in the GOP knows how to bargain with Obama better than the Ohio Republican. If he appears negative, then run for cover. And also watch if Boehner meets one-on-one with Obama, as he did back in 2011, when they came oh so close, suggests Ken Kies, a director at the Federal Policy Group, a top lobbying firm with special expertise in taxation. This will be a sign that the president is very serious about closing a bipartisan deal.

FOURTH, WATCH REPUBLICAN SEN. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader and a fiscal conservative from Kentucky. Like Boehner and Obama, McConnell is key. Obama needs Republican Senate votes if an agreement is to become a reality, and McConnell, who is known as a very cautious lawmaker, is the only one who can deliver them. McConnell stands ready to leave his comfort zone and agree to an increase in federal revenue, but only if Obama agrees in return to leave his own comfort zone and cut taxes and entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. If McConnell bridles, trouble lies ahead.

Finally, keep an eye on the Tea Party and party darlings like Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor. If this duo begins to voice objections to a Boehner-McConnell-Obama deal, the agreement could be doomed. Jim Manley, a senior director at QGA public affairs, one of the leading lobbying groups in the capital, says the willingness of Boehner and McConnell to stand up to the Tea Party will be telltale. If they wobble in the face of a Tea Party rebellion, prepare for the consequences that by this time you all probably know so well.