Ill vote for extension as at very least looking like a ripping cold outbreak and then SW airsteam with showers will extend the event for eastern half in right locations till late in the week.Trying to keep a lid on it as been shattered so many times before. Looking like a 2 part event (3 if you count airstream showers as part 3).

Part 1 trough with bullseye overnight Tuesday into Wednesday roughly Melbourne to here (Gisborne or thereabouts on 00z Ukmet)

Part 2 from west to east across the state from later Wednesday into Thursday(maybe a lull for many during the day) this is upper cold pool/trough.

Part 3 Mega upper trough helps trigger possibly enormous surface low somewhere making for some serious wind and also showers in a sweet spot that's yet to be determined.

Still super interesting week ahead, models still struggling with where to bomb low at end of week and also with exactly where to place the best of Tuesdays storm event. Harder to pick than a broken nose as they say

Heating up quickly today already up near 28°C at 10am here in Portland. Models still going strong on this event, Access even has a follow up low next Monday which promises good falls again - could be a cold wet 2 weeks.

Watching this set up with interest. For those who are much better than me at reading forecast soundings, looking at this 18Z GFS sounding for Tullamarine:

The turning of the winds in the low to mid levels there stands out to me indicating the potential for some nasty winds with any storms that form. Potential tornado if a supercell gets up somewhere? Anyone else agree? Happy to be proven wrong.