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Playoffs: Don't Bet on Black Swans

The basketball challenge is a headline-making and effectively riskless marketing campaign just in time for tax season, not a future black swan.

Feb. 3, 2014 4:57 p.m. ET

Ernest Loperena argues that Warren Buffett and Quicken Loans are in for a rude surprise in "About That Billion-Dollar Basketball Challenge" (op-ed, Jan. 25). No matter the odds, people naturally find ways to game the system.

Discussing black swans and bashing quants misses the point. Insurers like Berkshire Hathaway, and parties entering into a contract for that matter, also make sure the terms work in their favor. Someone...