Projecting the fantasy football fortunes of 13 NFL rookies

NFL training camps are on the not-so-distant horizon, which means fantasy football is just around the corner.

Our fantasy nuts Steven Ruiz and Charles Curtis are already knee-deep in analysis for the 2018 season even though it’s too early. So throughout July, they’ll be sharing their early thoughts. They started with sleepers, followed that up with busts and are now focused on rookies. Here are 13 relevant rooks they’re debating, in no particular order.

(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

1. Saquon Barkley, Giants RB

Steven: The Giants took him with the second-overall pick for a reason. They’re going to use Barkley, and not just as a runner. I’m expecting at least 220 carries and around 70 targets for the rookie. While I wouldn’t go as far as taking him in the top-half of the first round, he’s a no-brainer if you’re stuck in the bottom half. He just has too much talent not to be productive with all of those touches. The one concern I do have is the talent around him. He’ll be competing with Odell Beckham, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard for touchdowns.

Charles: There’s a part of me concerned the Giants are going to run the rookie and his giant legs into the ground. But maybe that’s the Giants fan in me worried that the team’s prized No. 2 overall pick will be an overused bust. Once I get over that, I realize he’ll be part of an offense with other big weapons and he’ll run behind an improved offensive line. A first-round ADP seems perfect for him, and there’s a part of me that wonders if he’s a top-5 talent.

(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

2. Derrius Guice, Redskins RB

Steven: If I could choose only one rookie to have on my roster, it would be Guice. I just trust the Redskins coaching staff (and offensive line) more than I trust the Giants’ brain trust. And the gap between Barkley and Guice talent-wise isn’t as steep as their draft positions would have you believe. Chris Thompson’s presence is a concern, but Guice will get a majority of the touches and we don’t know how effective Thompson will be coming off a brutal leg injury that ended his 2017 season.

Charles: I can already see myself getting talked into Guice. He’s more dynamic than Rob Kelley and he was a potential first-round pick in the real draft that slipped. But I worry about how much Chris Thompson will cut in as the dynamic third-down back. If I’m in a PPR league, I’m knocking Guice down a bit. That said, I’m a sucker these days for young RBs since they don’t have the wear and tear of their older counterparts. And his offensive line is sneaky good. If he’s my RB2 or Flex, I’m not complaining. See? I just talked myself into Guice.

3. Rashaad Penny, Seahawks RB

Steven: Unless I can get Penny with a late-round pick (and that’s not happening), I’ll pass. The San Diego State product is undoubtedly talented, but that Seattle line is still a major concern. New Seahawks coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is saying the Seahawks will be a run-first team, but how long does that last? This offense still runs through Russell Wilson.

Charles: Remember just how bad Seattle’s offensive line was? If not: THEY WERE SO BAD. LIKE, HORRIFICALLY BAD. And I don’t see the unit getting better in 2018, despite coaches talking about a run-heavy scheme. So while I’ll take a flier on Penny in PPR leagues, I wonder just how effective he’ll be.

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

4. Sony Michel, Patriots RB

Steven: Is Bill Belichick still coaching the Patriots? Yes? OK, then I’ll pass on any New England running back.

Charles: You may know I’m high as heck on Rex Burkhead as a sleeper, but I also believe the Pats can support multiple RBs. Michel was a first-rounder, which seems to indicate Bill Belichick will deploy him as Dion Lewis’s replacement. As long as he holds on to the football — he fumbled a lot in college — he could live up to his 58th overall ADP per FantasyPros. But I’m not reaching beyond that. Ironically, Lewis (now in Tennessee) is 57th and I’d rather have him there.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports,

5. Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers RB

Steven: Jones is clearly the most talented back on the Bucs roster. If he wins the starting job out of camp (and he should), he could be a fantasy stud early on with Jameis Winston out suspended. Take a chance on this rookie and, at the very least, you’ll have a trade chip early on in the season.

Charles: You’re telling me he’s going to fall behind Jacquizz Rodgers, Charles Sims and Peyton Barber? Nope. Sorry. They had their chances. I think he’s the three-down monster sleeper who early drafters should target. The committee will get their touches, but his talent will win out and earn a heavier workload by midseason.

(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

6. D.J. Moore, Panthers WR

Steven: Receivers taken late in the first round have had a dismal track record of late, so I’m wary of Moore, who is more of an athlete than a route-runner at this point in his development. Playing with a billion quarterbacks (none of them very good) at Maryland may have stunted his growth. He’ll have a big game or two, but expect a lot of growing pains for Moore in Year 1.

Charles: He’ll be fourth on the pass-catching depth chart behind Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey. Despite rumblings he’s had a good summer, I’m not confident he’ll have a huge rookie year.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

7. Nick Chubb, Browns RB

Steven: Maybe next year, rook. Chubb won’t beat out a talented, still-in-his-prime vet like Carlos Hyde, and he’ll struggle to see the field on passing downs with the dynamic Duke Johnson on the depth chart. Keep an eye on Chubb in case of injury, but do not waste a pick on him.

Charles: This is one where we’re early to judge. Chubb might end up proving he’s better than Hyde in camp, but Duke Johnson is still the third-down stud. Keeper leaguers, grab him by all means. But don’t expect a breakout unless Hyde gets injured or is beat out in camp.

(Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP)

8. Calvin Ridley, Falcons WR

Steven: I wouldn’t be surprised if Ridley surpasses Mohamed Sanu as the No. 2 receiver in Atlanta. And it’s not like Julio Jones is some red zone monster. Don’t expect Ridley to be a fixture in your starting lineup, but he will be a valuable piece to have on your bench when you need a spot starter.

Charles: Hmmmm. Rookie wideouts don’t always break out. He’ll be behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu and probably Austin Hooper for looks. But what if there’s room for him to carve out a workload with Matt Ryan throwing to him? I might take him with a very late pick to find out.

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

9. Royce Freeman, Broncos RB

Steven: I’m done being tantalized by rookie backs in Denver. I’ll pass until I see some serious improvement from that offensive line. Having Gary Kubiak back in the fold might help out the Broncos’ running game, but it’s not a sure thing that Freeman will get the most touches. Pass.

Charles: I’m in. He’s RB26 and 55th overall on FantasyPros, which seems high. But when you realize Devontae Booker had his shot last year and squandered it, you get why.

Kirthmon F. Dozier/Detroit Free Press

10. Kerryon Johnson, Lions RB

Steven: The Lions front office has gone to work on improving the offensive line to finally put a competent running game around Matt Stafford, and I believe this is the year it pays off. But that doesn’t mean Johnson will be the beneficiary. Not with LeGarrette Blount in town, Ameer Abdullah still on the roster and Theo Reddick as the top third-down option. Too many mouths to feed in Detroit.

Charles: As with Jones above, I have little faith in his teammates. LeGarrette Blount may be a goal-line back and not a full-time ball-carrier. Ameer Abdullah has never lived up to the hype. Theo Riddick is a pass catcher. So with an ADP of 90, I’ll roll the dice.

(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

11. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins TE

Steven: Even the most talented rookie tight ends tend to struggle, as they not only have to learn the intricacies of their new team’s passing game, but also how to block. And Gesicki has a loooooong way to go in the blocking department. He won’t be much of a factor in 2018.

Charles: Rookie tight ends don’t usually have huge years. And there are a lot of mouths to feed in Miami including DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. Pass.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

12. Nyheim Hines, Colts RB

Steven: Hines will be that guy who gets a ton of hype during the preseason, and someone in your league will take him about 20 picks too high. Don’t be that guy. Resist the hype.

Charles: Marlon Mack is your presumed starter in Indy, but there’s some buzz on Hines. Another guy you might consider with an extremely late pick.

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

13. Lamar Jackson, Ravens QB

Steven: I love Lamar Jackson, but, barring injury, I just don’t see him unseating Joe Flacco as the team’s starting quarterback this season. Unless things go horribly wrong for the Ravens, and they’re out of the playoff race by November. Baltimore’s defense is too good for that to happen. Let somebody else take a chance on the exciting rookie.

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