This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

NOVEMBER 2002 KEY POINTS

Trend

Trend estimates indicate that total new motor vehicle sales have continued to show a gradual decline in the rate of growth since July 2002. November 2002 recorded zero growth compared with the previous month. A rise of 0.3% was recorded for passenger vehicle sales and a fall of 0.5% was recorded for other vehicle sales.

Victoria and Western Australia recorded small increases in the trend estimates of total new motor vehicle sales in November 2002 compared with the previous month, with each rising by 0.5%. All other states and territories either remained steady or showed small decreases.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate of total new motor vehicle sales fell by 2.7% in November compared with October 2002. A small decrease was recorded for passenger vehicle sales (0.7%) with a larger decrease recorded in other vehicle sales (6.2%).

NOTES

CHANGES THIS ISSUE

This edition includes changes to the seasonally adjusted series and the trend estimate series as a result of the annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).

TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1

The December 2002 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the June seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

2

The December 2002 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the June seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)

Other vehicles (a) (No.)

Total vehicles (No.)

Change Passenger vehicles (%)

Change Other vehicles (%)

Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2001

September

40,257

18,992

59,249

-10.3

-10.1

-10.2

October

45,575

20,805

66,380

13.2

9.5

12.0

November

47,510

23,252

70,762

4.2

11.8

6.6

December

48,193

20,838

69,031

1.4

-10.4

-2.4

2002

January

39,779

18,778

58,557

-17.5

-9.9

-15.2

February

42,776

22,019

64,795

7.5

17.3

10.7

March

44,828

22,996

67,824

4.8

4.4

4.7

April

42,052

21,834

63,886

-6.2

-5.1

-5.8

May

46,448

26,675

73,123

10.5

22.2

14.5

June

49,101

29,680

78,781

5.7

11.3

7.7

July

45,923

23,859

69,782

-6.5

-19.6

-11.4

August

45,122

24,525

69,647

-1.7

2.8

-0.2

September

43,396

22,638

66,034

-3.8

-7.7

-5.2

October

48,269

24,063

72,332

11.2

6.3

9.5

November

47,229

24,346

71,575

-2.2

1.2

-1.0

Seasonally Adjusted

2001

September

44,419

21,880

66,299

1.9

4.4

2.7

October

43,431

21,252

64,683

-2.2

-2.9

-2.4

November

43,864

21,910

65,774

1.0

3.1

1.7

December

46,133

20,054

66,187

5.2

-8.5

0.6

2002

January

49,079

24,810

73,889

6.4

23.7

11.6

February

45,699

23,668

69,367

-6.9

-4.6

-6.1

March

43,408

21,857

65,265

-5.0

-7.7

-5.9

April

45,648

23,651

69,299

5.2

8.2

6.2

May

45,401

24,316

69,717

-0.5

2.8

0.6

June

44,705

23,749

68,454

-1.5

-2.3

-1.8

July

44,390

24,048

68,438

-0.7

1.3

0.0

August

45,301

25,217

70,518

2.1

4.9

3.0

September

45,947

25,194

71,141

1.4

-0.1

0.9

October

45,791

24,955

70,746

-0.3

-0.9

-0.6

November

45,464

23,406

68,870

-0.7

-6.2

-2.7

Trend

2001

September

43,829

21,165

64,994

0.7

1.7

1.0

October

44,334

21,541

65,875

1.2

1.8

1.4

November

44,910

21,875

66,785

1.3

1.6

1.4

December

45,425

22,214

67,639

1.1

1.5

1.3

2002

January

45,785

22,601

68,386

0.8

1.7

1.1

February

45,873

22,979

68,852

0.2

1.7

0.7

March

45,672

23,291

68,963

-0.4

1.4

0.2

April

45,308

23,555

68,863

-0.8

1.1

-0.1

May

44,990

23,834

68,824

-0.7

1.2

-0.1

June

44,906

24,133

69,039

-0.2

1.3

0.3

July

45,063

24,443

69,506

0.3

1.3

0.7

August

45,257

24,657

69,914

0.4

0.9

0.6

September

45,420

24,704

70,124

0.4

0.2

0.3

October

45,561

24,635

70,196

0.3

-0.3

0.1

November

45,715

24,510

70,225

0.3

-0.5

0.0

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.

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