Jerry Stewart: Final round at Pebble is always unpredictable

On paper, Sunday's final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am figures to be a victory lap for the red-hot Brandt Snedeker.

Sure, James Hahn is tied with Snedeker for the lead and 14 players are within five strokes of the lead. But none of them is Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson, two golfers Snedeker has finished second to this season. And Snedeker is leading the Tour in the FedEx Cup.

"Even I picked Snedeker" to win this week, Hahn said after taking a share of the lead at 12-under-par. "Nobody is expecting me to win."

But then again, one thing the final round at Pebble always seems to be is unpredictable.

Just ask Mickelson, the defending champion.

Mickelson won't be a factor in Sunday's final round. His chances sank into the Pacific Ocean off the 18th, a nightmare that ended in a triple bogey.

But last year Mickelson entered the final round trailing third- round leader Charlie Wi by six shots. He went on to win by two.

"The final round at Pebble Beach, a lot of things happen," Mickelson said.

The first factor players must consider during the final round is the course itself.

With the rain gone and sun back out, the greens at Pebble Beach could return to playing as firm and fast as they were when the week started.

There's also the "Cliffs of Doom" stretch (holes 7-10), where historically fortunes can rise and fall faster than the tide in Stillwater Cove. In making his charge in the third round, Snedeker played the stretch at 2-under thanks to birdies at 7, 8 and 9 before he finally returned to earth with a bogey on the 10th.

"I tried to be aggressive on those holes," said Snedeker, who shot his ninth straight round in the 60s. "The more aggressive you get, the more chances you turn that from a par hole into a birdie hole."

The stretch can, however, also be the start of the end.

In 2000, leader Matt Gogel first began crumbling along that stretch, eventually opening the door for Tiger Woods to sneak in and steal the title.

Which brings us to the next Sunday factor at the AT&T Pro-Am: going low.

Mickelson won last year by shooting a 64 in the final round. Woods shot a 64 in 2000 to beat Gogel.

Even Snedeker, who for a while on Saturday looked like he was going to run way with the tournament, said that someone could do it again.

"There's going to be a lot of great players around me who'll have a chance," Snedeker said. "Pebble can yield a low score if you're playing well. So no lead is safe around here, especially with the closing holes. You'll need to go out and play a really solid round of golf."

Which means getting off to a good start. As all of the pros will tell you, if they're going to go low at Pebble Beach, the place to begin is on the course's opening holes.

"There's no secret at Pebble Beach," Snedeker said. "Everybody knows, the first six holes you have to be aggressive on and make some birdies. And after that you have to hang on for a few holes and then get back at it. That's the game plan for" Sunday.

Finally, there's what could be called the seven-stroke rule at the AT&T Pro-Am.

As recent history has proved, if you can enter the final round within seven strokes of the lead, you've still got a chance. When Woods first started his comeback to beat Gogel, he was seven strokes behind with seven holes left to play.

In 2001, Davis Love III started the final day seven strokes behind Mickelson. Mickelson went on to shoot 73, while Love carded a 63, shooting a tournament record 28 on the front-nine.

Among those who enter Sunday within seven strokes of Snedeker and Hahn are pressure-tested U.S. Open winners Retief Goosen (4-under) and Webb Simpson (7-under), 2012 AT&T Pro-Am runner-up Charlie Wi (6-under) and defending WGC-Match Play Championship winner Hunter Mahan (6-under).

Of course, there's also Chris Kirk and Patrick Reed, who are in an even better position at just one and two strokes behind, respectively.

And then there's Hahn, who just might have the biggest thing going for him — a happy-go-lucky attitude.

"Weekends mean you are getting a paycheck and I like coming home with money and my wife likes it," Hahn said. "I'm getting another opportunity to get better, and I just feel grateful to have that opportunity."