I have been writing for Forbes since 2005. Prior to that I covered the business beat for the New York Daily News. Because I've studied both finance and journalism, and because I like both numbers & analysis and sports, what's a more fun job than merging the two, writing about sports from the business side and from the stat geek/number crunching side? I have a BS in business from Boston College and a masters in business journalism from New York University.

7/18/2012 @ 1:38PM1,430 views

Will Fans Go Linsane For Jeremy In Houston? Don't Bet On It.

Jeremy Lin took the money. That is, the guaranteed money, as in his basketball salary.

The endorsement money is going to be harder to come by. Not that NBA fans are likely to hold it against Lin for leaving the bright lights of Broadway for $25 million in the heart of Texas. Like many others, Lin simply went out and got the best deal he could.

The difference now is expectations.

Playing with a big contract in a smaller market, one with approximately one-eighth of New York’s Asian population, Lin carries the burden of expected stardom in a new town. Should he play at the exceptional level of his early Knicks run, when he rocked Madison Square Garden by leading the team to seven straight wins, highlighted by a riveting 38-point night against the Lakers on ESPN, then the Linsanity that was kick started in New York should transfer easily enough, say sports marketing experts.

“In the NBA, marketing power is more a result of playing time and performance than location,” says Bob Dorfman of Baker Street Advertising in San Francisco, citing the attention garnered by LeBron James in Cleveland and Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City. Dorfman does believe that Lin, as a good point guard leading the Rockets to the playoffs, can be a marketing phenomenon in Houston.

Of course, Lin is a long way from being Durant or James. And therein lies the rub – history shows that if you’re a major star on the floor, you can score endorsements anywhere. But if you’re just a solid player? Not so much. Suppose Lin settles in to where many expect he will – somewhere in between the whirlwind of his early Linsanity days and the struggling player who started turning the ball over at a higher clip once opposing defenses stepped up the pressure on him. What if Lin goes to Houston and averages, say, 13 points and eight assists per game while running the offense competently? Will fans continue to go Linsane for him?

No, says Ken Wisnefski, a sports business expert who is the CEO of WebiMax, an internet marketing firm. “There will definitely be higher expectations,” he says. “In New York the marketability (for an average Lin) would still be there because of all the media attention.”

Some see a natural fit for Lin in Houston. He does arrive on the heels of the NBA’s first major Chinese star, Yao Ming, who played there for nine seasons. But while some may see some natural karma in that progression, it isn’t exactly clear where there’s a business advantage to having consecutive Asian players cloaked in the same NBA uniform. Especially since Asia has matured as an NBA market in recent years after Yao began drawing fans in a decade ago. Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose sell more jerseys in China than anyone right now. “Previously fans there were just happy to see an Asian player, now they want to see good basketball,” Wisnefki says. If Lin is going to continue as a phenomenon outside of the league’s biggest market, he’s going to have to play like one.

Post Your Comment

Post Your Reply

Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find particularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes network. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.