Jerry Hayes

Osborne is not threatening if we leave the EU the yuppie gets it. Someone will have to pay for the black hole and it won't be the Mexicans

15 Jun 2016 at 08:58

For months George Osborne has been pilloried for not having a contingency plan if we vote to leave the EU. Well now it has been revealed. The IFS produced a report that there would be an enormous black hole in public finances and gave a number of projections. Osborne chose the midway one; £30bn. Yesterday the FTSE 100 lost £100 bn and sterling is in trouble with £69 bn offloaded since March. Consumer confidence is hitting new lows and the market investment fear index new highs. ‘Nothing to do with Brexit’, the bellenderage primly say. ‘Markets go up and markets go down…..a low pound will be great for British exports.’ Not when there will be £9bn worth of tariffs from the EU as projected by the WTO matey. Someone is going to have to pay for this home made recession and it ain’t going to be the Mexicans. ’Don’t talk Britain down……you are insulting the ingenuity of the British people’. Yet, it won’t be the British people who will be tipped bloodied into the foaming seas of Euro sharks. It won’t be the British people negotiating with both hands tied behind their backs, it will be total dickweeds like Bozo who has got us into this mess.

It is worth putting on the record just how our manufacturing industry is going to be hammered. Let’s start with aerospace. It employs 110,000 directly and supports 120,000. 47% of their exports go to the EU. They rely heavily on supply chains which means that many of the parts are made in the EU. Tariffs will cripple them. The automotive industry employs 147,000 and supports 300,000. They make 1.6m vehicles a year and contribute £1.6bn to the economy. They are a fantastic success and 43% of exports go to the EU. Their supply chain is a real problem as 41% of the parts are manufactured in the EU. They would be stuffed.

So that is just a snapshot of how manufacturing jobs will be destroyed. Have a look at the agriculture figures and your eyes will pop out on stalks. Agriculture employs 3.8m, it is worth £100 bn to our economy. We export 60% of food and drink the EU. The NFU has warned of crippling tariffs. Beef 70%, lamb 40%, cheese 30%, drink and tobacco 20.8%. Obviously food prices will rise. And for farmer’s incomes? Trading on the Canadian model they would go down by €24,000 and under the WTO one €17,000.

And finally lets look at financial services. Contributes £133 bn to the economy and 7% of GDP. They employ 1m. They sell over £20bn of services to the EU employing 100,000 direct and supporting185,000. This is something Brexiteers don’t like to talk about as these figures are never included in our exports. Once they are it shows we actually sell more to the EU than we buy. And let me give you the sums. We sell £21 bn more services than we buy from the other 27 nations. But all this is just statistics. And facts are not something Leavers want to talk about. It’s much more effective to demonise hard working migrants who pay £3.5 billion in taxes and won’t be able to claim any benefits for four years. Who do the jobs that Brits can’t be arsed to. The awful thing is that this referendum has precious little to do with what will happen to our economy if we leave and everything to do with fictional poles taking our jobs and depressing wages. Even the unions accept that this is bollocks. But Brexit have kicked the sleeping wolf of racism wide awake, slathering, growling and baring it’s yellowing fangs. How long will be before some ghastly KIPPER warns that Enoch was right? Well, as Farage is leading a flotilla of shits up the Thames to Parliament today something is bound to go horribly amiss.

So is Osborne being vindictive, cynical and warning that unless we vote Remain the yuppie gets it? No, he will be just trying to fill a black hole that has been imposed on us by vote leave.

Oh, and a word of comfort from the Prime Minister of Norway, Enna Solberg. ’ For the UK to think that it will get everything it wants from the EU without giving anything back…it doesn’t happen like that in a political organisation. We lack influence in important decision making processes in the EU. We have special arrangements on some issues, but basically we have lost our sovereignty.’

Welcome to the future.

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2 comments

Hi Jerry, amusing blog as always. The economic harm has already happened because of the referendum and will not vanish like Spring snow in the event of a remain vote. Also in the event of a leave vote nothing will change for the first several months, if nothing else the referendum is only advisory and might not be enacted by parliament. The real culprit is your pal Dave, he has brought the country to its knees; the referendum was all his idea, he dangled it in front of the electorate to knobble UKIP,' the only way out of Europe is to vote Tory', he told us time and time again, never thinking for a minute that he would win a majority. Well he did and now we are in the clag, remain or leave the country is ruined and the EU will give us a severe kicking either way.

Hi Jerry, the PM has pulled a stroke, by refusing to submit article 50 next week and saying that the new leader should do it he has created a delay. The new leader will call for a General Election and insist that only the winner of that should be the one to submit article 50. Unless it is submitted before November I think the gate closes and we stay in the EU. I have already contacted Jacob Rees-Mogg and asked him to tackle the PM on Monday. I hope he does it.