Kyrgios vs Federer

This is my top bet for tomorrow and it's in the match between Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios.

It's SF match in Stuttgart and a win will give the 1st place to Federer after Nadal was there for a few weeks during the clay season. But you can't give to Roger more uncomfortable opponent on grass than Nick Kyrgios, believe me. he can be the black cat on his way. Both of them were out of the courts for a long time- Roger missed the whole clay seeason, while Nick almost the whole, so both players are fresh, but also trying to find their best rhythm. What's the same in both of their performances till the SFs in Stuttgart is the fact they win their service games very comfortable with a lot of aces without giving the opponents lot of chances to play with the ball.

Here I will not look for the surprise Kyrgios to win or over 22,5/23.5 games in the match, over 2.5 sets or asian handicaps with games for one of them. I prefer one single pick and it's over 12.5 games in the 1st set, which means tiebreak. WHY? Well, Kyrgios will be motivated to beat Federer and stop him in this match of high importance for the Swiss player, because he wants to return as N1 this week for sure. If he beats Kyrgios,I have no doubt he will find the way to win the title against Raonic or Puille. But the question is if he will find the way to miss playing tiebreaks against Kyrgios which are totally unpredictable and one minibreak can even give the tiebreak to your opponent. I don't think so, especially in the first set, when both motivation to win will be really high!

Moreover, they have two official matches and the results are 6:7 7:6 7:6 to Kyrgios in Madrid 2015 and 7:6 6:7 7:6 to Roger in Miami 2017. 6 sets- 6 tiebreaks! In such a moment form on serve I don't see how one of them can break the other especially in the 1st set. Federer was much more aggressive against Pella than in his match against Mischa Zverev, but he will have much less chances on return against Kyrgios. If Kyrgios loses the first set, he can give chances to Roger on return in the 2nd set for sure being a little bit more nervious with set behind, but a won tiebreak for Nick can give him wings and match over 2 hours is absolutely possible. I bet on tiebreak in the 1st set! Nick doesn't give up so easy and his serve is maybe the hardest one in the tour- even Djokovic in his best years and Roger have a lot of problems with it.