Posted by kneeneighbor on 11/9/2012 10:53:00 PM (view original):Sheenan tells it like it is. They got locky with all those 1 run games. Regression to the mean next season.

Ya, we heard from Aug. 1 through the end of the season how the O's were gonna regress back to the mean - never happened. You don't win 93 games by being lucky. Does it defy the odds doing as well as they did in 1-run games? Absolutely. But they still earned those wins.

And only a complete moron would suggest that Machado needs to be sent back to AAA.

The good news for the O's is that the Yanks will likely take a step back, Boston sucks balls, Toronto is in Canada and TB is a wild card because you never know what direction they'll take in the off-season. I don't think the O's are a 93 win team but 88 might be good enough next year.

All depends what moves they make. If guys like Machado and Bundy make huge strides, and Duquette finds some more hidden gems like McClouth, Chen and Gonzalez, they could be over 90 again. But I agree - as they sit right now, probably an 86-88 win team.

Obviously you keep Machado up, but I could easily envision a scenario where he wounds up getting sent down sometime in May and comes back up late in the season again. He's still 20 through sometime in July, things like that do happen. I wouldn't mind having a contingency plan with a better glove than Betemit. Maybe Flaherty is really the best option we have right now...

Machado has already proven he's an elite defender at 3B at the ML level, and he's got a high baseball IQ. His hitting needs improvement, but I don't think you send him down just to work on that, especially with the premium Showalter and Duquette place on defense. Machado didn't hit great in his two months in the bigs, but his glove was a huge reason the team improved. No way he even sniffs the minors next season.

Depends what you value. His glove and intelligence are more than major league ready...his bat isn't. But he hit decently enough that they'll let his hitting evolve at the ML level, especially to keep his glove in the lineup.

Bryce Harper just won ROY and he's still improving aspects of his game at this level. You don't send a guy to the minors simply because he's not completely "there" yet.

If he's hitting .182 in May, don't be shocked if he's sent to AAA. Especially if they have another option and think they're contenders. And that's not out of the question as teams now have a couple hundred AB to analyze and find the hole in his swing.

The guy hits .260 for 200 ABs above AA and he's definitely here to stay? He was a .260 hitter in A ball 2 years ago. I'd guess .230-.240 next year as pitchers find his weaknesses. I do think he'll stay up all of next year, because like you said, he's great in the field. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't be the first time someone had a bad sophomore slump. And he's only 20.

That's my point burnsy. I'm not saying Machado will be an MVP next year. I'm saying based on the Os needs and philosophy (ie: emphasis on defense) Machado will start and play the whole year next year. And with his glove, if he hits .230-.250 with 20 HR, the Os will take it in a heartbeat.