MARCH 8, 7:46pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs and Arrieta had discussions early in the winter, but the team wasn’t interested in making an offer greater than five total years (Twitter link). It’s not 100 percent clear whether that means five years including the upcoming campaign or five years on top of Arrieta’s $10.7MM salary for the coming season, but if talks were early enough in the winter, they likely predated that arbitration agreement, so it seems reasonable to infer that the Cubs were interested in locking up the 2016-20 seasons (two arb years and three free-agent seasons). Arrieta, Nightengale adds, was seeking “at least” seven years, which lines up with Heyman’s initial report.

3:00pm: President of baseball operations Theo Epstein says that the team doesn’t feel any pressure to reach a deal in the near term, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports in a series of tweets (1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6). He called the discussions thus far productive in “provid[ing] a foundation for something to get done down the road” and noted there’s “no hard deadline, but there are no active talks.”

10:14am: Arrieta confirmed to reporters that there have been talks. They “go back to last fall and winter,” sources tell Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (via Twitter). The righty says that Chicago’s range of years didn’t line up with what he was looking for, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat reports (linkstoTwitter). “I want to stay here for six or seven years, and that’s it,” he said while emphasizing that he does hope to remain with the organization for the long haul.

Arrieta also suggested he’d “prefer to not have a lot of open dialogue about [an extension] during the season,” as Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune reports (video link). Talks haven’t been extensive, he said, in part because the front office “kind of know[s] the ballpark of where [a deal] needs to be.”

MARCH 7: The Cubs briefly explored a “mega extension” with ace righty Jake Arrieta, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (linkstoTwitter), but the sides wrapped up their discussions when it became apparent they would not see eye to eye on the length of a prospective new contract. The Scott Boras client was believed to be seeking a seven-year pact, per the report.

While that term of years was apparently a non-starter for Chicago, Heyman adds that the Cubs front office appears to be willing to re-open talks again in the future. Arrieta recently agreed to a $10.7MM deal to avoid arbitration for the coming season, and can be controlled for one additional campaign through the arb process before qualifying for free agency.

Arrieta turned 30 yesterday, so he doesn’t exactly have his youngest years left to sell. But he’s also turned into one of the game’s most dominant starters, as evidenced by his Cy Young award last year. Arrieta’s career revival in Chicago was already remarkable, but after that 2015 campaign he could be set up as a premium free agent after the 2017 season.

Last year, Arrieta spun 229 frames of 1.77 ERA pitching, racking up 9.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 with a 56.2% groundball rate. That remarkable run was good enough to edge out the Dodgers’ outstanding duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke to take home honors as the National League’s best hurler. Though he wasn’t quite as effective in his later postseason outings, Arrieta also spun a complete game shutout to lead the Cubs to a wild card play-in victory.

As things stand, a hypothetical seven-year contract would take Arrieta through at least his age-36 season (assuming a deal would have covered the season to come). We’ve seen very few lengthy extensions of pitchers with at least four years of service time, with Cole Hamels (six years, $144MM) and Kershaw (seven years, $215MM) looking like the most reasonable comparables. Of course, both of those pitchers were both younger and had accumulated an additional year of service at the time they reached their deals.

More recent market developments would certainly also come into play. We’ve seen pitchers like Max Scherzer (seven years, $210MM), David Price (seven years, $217MM), and Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) top the $200MM threshold in recent seasons, and Arrieta will no doubt hope to land in a similar range if he can maintain anything close to his current level of performance. Greinke, in particular, represents a notable data point, as he’s slightly older now than Arrieta will be when he qualifies for free agency — showing that somewhat older arms can still land massive deals.

Of course, committing to that kind of deal at this point, with two years of control still remaining, is quite a different proposition for a club. If nothing else, Arrieta would surely be forced to give a discount for his arb years and distance from the open market.

The Cubs will keep an eye on Jake Arrieta’s workload this season to ensure that the Cy Young Award winner is still fresh for October, Joe Maddon tells reporters (including ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers). Arrieta threw 248 2/3 innings in the regular and postseason in 2015, far above his previous career high of 176 2/3 frames in 2014. While Arrieta takes pride in being a workhorse and finishing games, “there’s certain sacrifices that need to be made and I’m more than willing to make those sacrifices to be better for my team later in the season,” he said. Jon Lester and John Lackey will also have their innings monitored, Maddon said, as the Cubs clearly have their eyes set on being at full strength for the postseason. Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

Ryan Braun will indeed be moving back to left field this season, Brewers manager Craig Counsell confirmed to media (including the Associated Press). “We talked it over and discussed it, and I think with the players that we have on our roster this year, it’s an advantageous decision for both Ryan and the players we have involved,” Counsell said. Milwaukee’s left field spot was opened up when Khris Davis was traded to Oakland, and there had been speculation that Braun would be shifted to give highly-touted youngster Domingo Santana regular playing time in right.

Jay Bruce has been the subject of several trade rumors this offseason but he’s taking everything in stride, the Reds outfielder told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer.) When asked if the trade speculation made it awkward to be in the Reds’ clubhouse, Bruce said “No, not at all. If it were somewhere else, it’d be awkward right now. This is what I know, this organization has been much more to be than just a baseball team. I’ve been here since I was 18 years old, and this is all I know. I look forward to still being here and if something does happen, I completely understand. It’s part of the business. I mentioned before, obviously, I truly believe the Reds have to do everything they can do improve the organization and if they end up feeling that making a move with me is part of that plan, I respect them for that.”

The Cardinals have shut down right-hander Tyler Waldron due to an impingement in his throwing shoulder, the team told media (including MLB.com’s Barry W. Bloom). Waldron, 26, was a non-roster invite to the Cards’ camp. He has a 4.54 ERA over 492 minor league innings in the St. Louis and Pittsburgh farm systems. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said Waldron was being shut down indefinitely and he wasn’t sure when the righty would be throwing again.

Now is the time for the Cubs to try to sign ace Jake Arrieta to a long-term deal, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Arrieta and the Cubs recently agreed on a one-year, $10.7MM contract to avoid arbitration in Arrieta’s second year of eligibility. Arrieta can currently become a free agent after the 2017 season. Of course, Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras would surely agree that an extension for Arrieta shouldn’t be cheap after his Cy Young award-winning 2015 season, and since Arrieta turns 30 next month, he might only have one shot at a big free agent deal, meaning he might not be inclined to sign now unless the deal is quite long. Also, Arrieta’s incredible stretch run changed the landscape since we last closely considered his extension candidacy. Levine proposes a four-year deal at an average of $23MM per season, with two club options. While it’s true that Arrieta’s salaries for the next two seasons are essentially set via the arbitration process, a $92MM deal with options would, in my opinion, be unlikely to bring Boras and Arrieta to the table. Recent history suggests Arrieta has a shot at a deal in the $200MM range if he waits until after 2017. Here’s more from the National League.

The Pirates won 98 games last season and have a strong core in place, but many of their top competitors in the National League have improved, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. The Cubs have had a busy and productive offseason, and while the Cardinals have lost talent (some of it to their rivals in Chicago), they should benefit somewhat from better luck with injuries. The rest of the league, too, has become increasingly polarized, with several very bad teams, but lots of potentially strong ones, including the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks. The Bucs, however, continue to believe in themselves. “There’s no question the Cubs did a fantastic job on balancing amateur player acquisition and timing it with those young players being ready to hit the major league level and then pouring a ton of money into free agency,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “They are going to be good going forward. The Cardinals are going to be good going forward. Our belief is, with this core that we have, that we are going to continue to be good going forward.”

The Cubs have agreed to a $10.7MM deal with righty Jake Arrieta to avoid arbitration, Jay Cohen of the Associated Press (Twitter link). There was plenty of incentive for both sides to get something done, as Arrieta filed at $13MM and the team countered at $7.5MM, setting the stage for what would have been quite a high-stakes hearing.

Instead, Arrieta will land $450K above the midpoint. As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained in detail, Arrieta’s case provided a test for assessing arbitration raises. While the MLBTR arb model projected a $10.9MM salary after Arrieta’s monster 2015 season, Swartz revised that downward to $10.4MM as a limitation on the predicted record raise for a second-year-eligible player. Obviously, Arrieta landed right between those figures.

Arrieta, who is nearing 30, somehow managed to improve upon his stellar 2014 campaign with the Cubs, taking home a Cy Young award in the face of stiff competition. Chicago successfully reclaimed him after a 2013 deadline trade with the Orioles that also landed Pedro Strop in exchange for a few months of Scott Feldman.

Over his 229 innings in 2015, Arrieta worked to a 1.77 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9. He also improved upon his groundball induction numbers, posting an excellent 56.2% grounder rate on balls in place. With the righty showing career-best average fastball velocity, a true five-pitch arsenal, and non-existent platoon issues, there weren’t many pitchers this side of Los Angeles that could even come close to Arrieta’s work last season.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether there is any realistic hope of a longer-term pact. Arrieta is eligible for arbitration one final time next winter, and then stands to reach free agency. He won’t exactly be a youthful entrant onto the market, but as Zack Greinke just proved, it’s possible to take home over $200MM at an even later point in one’s career. Certainly, Chicago will have a tough decision as to how high it would be willing to go to keep Arrieta around.

The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.

J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.

Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.

The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.

While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the high-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but I will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his second year of arbitration coming off a Cy Young Award and is due to get a large raise from his 2015 salary of $3.63MM. Our model technically has him projected to receive $10.9MM next season — a $7.27MM raise — but due to our “Kimbrel Rule,” this has been revised down to $10.4MM. The Kimbrel Rule states that no player can receive a raise more than $1MM larger than the current record raise for a player in his service class. The rule was named after Craig Kimbrel a couple of years ago when his track record entering arbitration so far outdid potential comparables that we did not believe the result the model produced. Given that there are generally limits to the extent by which players break existing arbitration records, we have adjusted the model to reflect this and come up with a number of around $1MM.

Arrieta’s case is a good application of the Kimbrel Rule, considering the fact that no player in recent years has matched Arrieta’s achievements heading into his second year of arbitration eligibility. The only recent player to win a Cy Young in Arrieta’s service class was David Price three years ago, who went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA. Comparatively, Arrieta won a couple of extra games and recorded a far superior ERA: he was 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. Additionally, Arrieta’s 229 innings and 236 strikeouts surpassed Price’s respective totals of 211 and 205 by a significant margin. Price received a $5.76MM raise, so the Kimbrel Rule gives Arrieta projected $6.76MM raise — good for a $10.4MM salary projected for 2016.

Another potential comparable that could come up in a hearing is Felix Hernandez’s 2010 season. Although Hernandez ultimately signed a multi-year deal, he initially exchanged figures with the Mariners after going 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA. The Mariners offered a $3.4MM raise, while he asked for a $7.7MM raise. Since Price ended up roughly between these two numbers three years later and had won a Cy Young, though, it would be tough for the Cubs to argue that the Hernandez case is more applicable than the case of Price. Hernandez did have the lowest ERA of any pitcher entering his second year of arbitration eligibility in recent seasons, however, but even this was nearly three quarters of a run greater than Arrieta’s 1.77 mark.

Although Price did not and Arrieta has not yet, pitchers get multi-year deals in most cases like these. The downside risk of injury for a pitcher usually encourages them to hedge and cash in on their success, and the risk for the team to have to bid against other teams in the free agent market encourages them to cut a deal as well. As a result, it is difficult to find many elite pitchers who go year-to-year in arbitration. Price was the only pitcher in recent years entering his second year of arbitration eligibility as a 20-game winner, in addition to being the only Cy Young winner. However, Arrieta’s far superior ERA makes Price a weak potential comparable, certainly more of a floor than a ceiling.

If Arrieta does not sign a multi-year deal, he is likely to set a record for second-year arbitration-eligible raises for starting pitchers that will set the baseline going forward. Where he lands will be an excellent test of the Kimbrel Rule, since he perfectly fits the example of pitchers who outperformed their service class in recent years on all arbitration-relevant statistics.

The Cubs are interested in bringing back Samardzija, but the key to negotiations will be how much they value him compared to their other needs, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes. They need a top starter more than they need Samardzija, says Sullivan, and at some point, they’ll also need to have money left over to extend Jake Arrieta.

The Indians have been in touch with free agent Shane Victorino, and whether they sign him or not, Victorino is the type of outfielder the team seems likely to acquire, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. The Indians could probably sign Victorino to a one-year deal — a reasonable proposition for them, since they need outfield help in 2016 but have a number of potentially helpful outfielders in the minors (including Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey in the short term and Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer in the longer term) who could help in future seasons.

The 27-year-old Keuchel was fighting for a rotation spot as recently as Spring Training 2014, but his remarkable transformation into a bona fide ace atop the Houston rotation was completed with a dominant follow-up to a breakout 2014 season. Keuchel led the AL with 232 innings (trailing only Clayton Kershaw’s 232 2/3 innings for the MLB lead) and worked to a pristine 2.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and an AL-best 61.7 percent ground-ball rate. While pitcher wins are no longer as significantly emphasized as they once were, Keuchel’s 20 victories likely still held some weight with many voters (as evidenced, perhaps, by teammate and 19-game winner McHugh receiving votes despite logging a 3.89 ERA).

Arrieta delivered a strong first half of the season but ratcheted things up with an historic second half, yielding a breathtaking four earned runs in his final 88 1/3 innings. Arrieta recorded an 89-to-14 K/BB ratio over that dominant stretch and shrank his earned run average from 2.62 to 1.77 in the process. He also led the Senior Circuit with 22 wins, four complete games and three shutouts.

There was a split camp between Arrieta and Greinke, the latter of whom posted a 1.66 ERA — the lowest earned run average since Greg Maddux 20 years ago. Greinke recorded 19 wins and averaged 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings against just 1.6 walks per nine in 222 2/3 innings with the Dodgers this season and also enjoyed an otherworldly run of 45 2/3 scoreless innings over the middle portion of the season. Incredibly, Greinke allowed just 19 runs over his first 19 starts this season.

In an ESPN Insider analysis of today’s Twins/Yankeesswap of center fielder Aaron Hicks and catcher John Ryan Murphy, Keith Law opines that both sides did quite well. While the Twins might have traded a bit more upside in exchange for stability, both clubs came away with a player who fit their current roster better than the piece they traded, says Law. Hicks has the potential to be an elite defender and is an immediate upgrade for the Yankees in a regular role solely based on his glove, while Murphy’s defense has steadily improved. Law feels that Murphy projects as an everyday catcher, though not a star-caliber one with tremendous offensive upside.

A few more notes from the game’s Central divisions…

Asked about the possibility of a contract extension for Cubs ace Jake Arrieta, agent Scott Boras told reporters, including ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers: “We’re going to be talking about that as the offseason unfolds, about Jake. I would say it’s fair to say the Cubs are pleased with Jake. And I’m sure Jake is happy playing there so we have to see where it goes.” Boras went on to state that Cubs’ ownership is in a new phase, having entered a “championship phase” after spending years in a rebuilding phase. “How owners react to that and what they do is a completely different thought process,” said Boras.

The Cubs still like Jeff Samardzija and aren’t ruling out a return for the right-hander, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote today. The Cubs, at one point, offered Samardzija $80-85MM on a contract extension, and Heyman notes that a similar sum may be a ballpark offer for what he can expect on the free-agent market.

The rebuilding Brewers won’t be players for top-of-the-market free agents, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, but new GM David Stearns could still sign some free agents to fill the club’s voids in center field and at third base. Stearns said that Domingo Santana, who played some center field in 2015, is best-suited for a corner outfield spot, but he’s not against using Santana in center if needed. If no external center field option is acquired, Santana will man the position in 2016. At third base, Stearns spoke of a need to pursue some external options given the lack of depth the Brewers currently have. “There’s a chance [internal options] could take a step up in production, and we’re certainly also going to look for external options,” said Stearns.

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the team must consider playing on the free agent market in a way he typically avoids. As Goold notes, recent Cardinals’ free-agent plays for pitchers have either been short-term deals or re-signings of pitchers the team already knows (e.g. Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook). However, the loss of Lance Lynn and the potential departure of Lackey on a two- or three-year deal with another club could lead to atypical activity for the Cardinals. Mozeliak is bullish on a healthy return for Carlos Martinez, but the team still needs further certainty in the rotation. Said Mozeliak: “The opportunity to add is something that we have to consider. … We’ll see. I’d like to let the market develop before I weigh in on that.”

Aroldis Chapman will probably be the first domino to fall in the Reds’ impending fire sale, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Reds know that Chapman, a free agent after the season, will earn about $13MM via arbitration (MLBTR projects him at $12.9MM), and they need to maximize the return they can get on him by dealing him this offseason so that an acquiring team can make a qualifying offer following the 2016 campaign.