I'm not sure your premise is accurate. What makes you think the outcome probabilities would be be different under either scenario? Point being that how do you know that under scenario B that the equation that deterimines if it is an out doesn't incorporate high velocity as a contributing factor?

I believe the premise of A is that a high velocity would result in more outs since strikeouts are treated as "in addition to" outs that result from balls in play. B makes no such distinction between strikeouts and "balls in play" outs.

I'm not sure we need to go through such detailed analysis to determine that velocity is all but negligible.

It makes a pitcher with good pitches and control a dominant strikeout pitcher (as opposed to just plain old "good"), and it plays some role in the direction of a batted ball, in conjuction with the equally ignorable "push/pull".

Yes, exactly. In RL, high strikeout pitchers are generally successful, largely because the ball is in play less often, which means there's less of a chance of a hit. In HBD, if the strikeout is just a kind of out, then these pitchers don't have that advantage they have in RL.

I've always treated velocity as a secondary rating, not a core pitching rating.

High velocity (i.e. strikeouts) are nice to have in that they do prevent the possible advancement of runners on an out from a ball in play, but I think they have less relevance in HBD than they do in real life.

Posted by iain on 1/30/2013 3:53:00 PM (view original):I'm not sure we need to go through such detailed analysis to determine that velocity is all but negligible.

It makes a pitcher with good pitches and control a dominant strikeout pitcher (as opposed to just plain old "good"), and it plays some role in the direction of a batted ball, in conjuction with the equally ignorable "push/pull".

Does "dominant strikeout pitcher" mean, to you, that he's dominant, and a strikeout pitcher, or a pitcher that is dominant when it comes to accumulating strikeouts?

It's interesting if velocity is used with push/pull. I never thought of that to be the case.

High velocity (i.e. strikeouts) are nice to have in that they do prevent the possible advancement of runners on an out from a ball in play, but I think they have less relevance in HBD than they do in real life.

If its B, I would like to think that the engine takes velocity into account when determining the initial out, walk, or in play determination, and with high velocity increases the chances for an out, and with low velocity decreases the chance for an out. I guess everyone is saying it does not.

And does higher velocity equal more push and less pull due to less batter reaction time?

If its B, I would like to think that the engine takes velocity into account when determining the initial out, walk, or in play determination, and with high velocity increases the chances for an out, and with low velocity decreases the chance for an out. I guess everyone is saying it does not.

And does higher velocity equal more push and less pull due to less batter reaction time?

Essentially youre asking if its "hit, walk, strikeout, in play out." Which would be more like A than B for me, at least it terms of what I'm trying to figure out.

If its B, I would like to think that the engine takes velocity into account when determining the initial out, walk, or in play determination, and with high velocity increases the chances for an out, and with low velocity decreases the chance for an out. I guess everyone is saying it does not.

And does higher velocity equal more push and less pull due to less batter reaction time?

While I don't know, along with everyone else here, I would like to think that a higher velocity pitcher would have increased chances for an out over a lower velocity guy. It really has to, or else the rating has no meaning at all other than just stats on a guys card.