These are just my opinions. I cannot promise that I will be perfect, but I can promise that I will seek to understand and illuminate whatever moves that the Giants make (my obsession and compulsion). I will share my love of baseball and my passion for the Giants. And I will try to teach, best that I can. Often, I tackle the prevailing mood among Giants fans and see if that is a correct stance, good or bad.

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Thursday, January 29, 2009

Baseball America's Giants Top 10 Prospects

Baseball America changed up their schedule and instead of doing the Giants last, like they usually do, they released it today here, with some commentary. The Top Ten:

Madison Bumgarner

Buster Posey

Angel Villalona

Tim Alderson

Nick Noonan

Ehire Adrianza

Conor Gillaspie

Rafael Rodriguez

Scott Barnes

Sergio Romo

Other things he noted:

After the 162-game experiment ran its course, the Giants identified a few players—Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Pablo Sandoval, Brian Wilson—who could be part of their next contender.

There's hope deeper in the system and the Giants might not be down for long. First-year scouting director John Barr redirected the club's former pitching-heavy philosophy and took college bats with his top four draft picks. None made a bigger statement than catcher Buster Posey, Baseball America's College Player of the Year and the Golden Spikes Award winner, who signed at the Aug. 15 deadline for $6.2 million.

Most of the system's top talent is at least a year or two away, however...

Magowan approached his role from a fan's perspective, often making impetuous moves such as the Zito contract. Neukom, the former chief legal mind at Microsoft, plans to take a measured, analytical approach while prioritizing player development and a "Giants Way" of competing both on and off the field.

Neukom said he expects San Francisco to be competitive in 2009 and contend the following season, all while bringing his "Microsoft meritocracy" to the front office. Even if the Giants show improvement, Neukom could decide he wants a baseball architect with a more modern perspective than Sabean, who isn't known to squint at a laptop screen.

Giants Thoughts

The most interesting thing about Andy Baggarly's list is that Ehire Adrianza was ranked 6th in the farm. That's pretty good for limited play in rookie ball and not that much of a bonus given him (I didn't hear about his signing, so I assume it wasn't for a large amount). He had some nice stats - .275/.367/.391/.758, and very importantly, only 7 K in 69 AB plus 9 BB.

That is excellent plate discipline, both avoiding strikeouts and getting more walks than strikeouts. And he must be plenty fast because his groundball rate is high (49%), line drive rate is very low (13%), and fly ball rate low too (37%). In addition, he had 5 doubles in those 69 AB (that's around 40 doubles with 560 AB) and I believe he was 18 year old for the 2008 season, so he still has some growing to do, physical maturity. According to Baseball-Reference.com, he is 6' 1", 155 pounds.

Also of note is that Henry Sosa did not make the list. He did have a pretty horrible 2008 season so I can see that happening, though other prospect lists did include him. I think he should have still made the list given how well he did the year before.

Another interesting thing was Scott Barnes making 9th. He was just dominating in his short pro career so that would explain that, but his skills are not considered that plus, from most reports I've seen, so I wonder what BA saw that made them think that he can continue to do well as he rises.

Lastly, it was nice to see Sergio Romo get recognized in the list. He gets on because he's a reliever who didn't play in the majors all season, and thus don't have the innings to be ineligible. He's had a nice couple of seasons, so good for him making the list, can't take that away from him.

I had the same Top 4 on my list, but placed Rodriguez and Ishikawa higher (I only gave a Big 6). I think most people acknowledge that Noonan is the best of the next tier, followed by Gillaspie, but don't know what to do with Rodriguez. But basically you don't give the guy $2.5M unless you think he's a Top 5 type prospect, so I gave that to them.

I think Ishikawa will hit 15-20 homers and keep 1B cheaply and competently warm with a platoon buddy until Villalona makes the big show.

3 comments:

Ishikawa has all the earmarks of a platoon 1B. Watching his ABs last year against LH pitching did not instill a lot of confidence that he will be able to figure LH pitching out. I'd like to see him succeed, but I just don't see it happening. However, right now, he's the best we've got (barring any more deals) so they should let him give him his chance.

Yeah, not too encouraged that he can rise above that, I'm just hopeful that he can rake enough against RHP. Earl Weaver used to platoon and was effective in utilizing that. Hopefully with that lefty who throws BP for the Giants (he used to do it for Bonds), Ishikawa will get more reps against LHP and improve (heck, Sandoval too), plus, he wasn't THAT bad against LHP relative to RHP, so there is some hope there as well.

Similarly, Phelps has actually not been that bad against RHP, though there is a platoon factor, he does rake against LHP. Also, his overall stats, which look nice to put in our lineup, has been boosted by 55 points because of his hitter friendly home parks, .876 OPS at home, .760 on road, .815 overall.

I don't see any reason why he hasn't stuck based on his offense, but as you can see in his fielding stats, he played mostly at DH, so his defense has to be pretty bad.

If he makes the team as Ishikawa's platoon buddy, he'll probably end up getting replaced by Ishikawa late in games for defensive purposes, and right now, with the signing of Juan Uribe, the talk is that he could play 3B against LHP, pushing Sandoval to 1B; thought not sure how that works as a platoon with Sandoval, that's a platoon really with Ishikawa.

In any case, I don't really see it happening, Phelps and Ishikawa can only play 1B, that's very limiting on the bench, that is why they got Uribe, he can play the whole infield, and that's why Aurilia is still being considered, he could also play th whole infield. Plus they look stuck with Roberts on the bench as well, plus has Holm as the backup catcher, and he don't play other positions either.

With five bench spots, you got Schierholtz, Roberts, maybe Velez, probably Uribe, plus Holms, that is going to be almost impossible to have Phelps, unless he takes Velez's spot but then you only have one backup infielder. I don't see that happening.

I, Me, Mine

Wow, this was easy and amazingly free. I am a big Giants fan and I hope to use my experience in business (MBA) and analytics (nearly 25 years) to bring up interesting facts to other Giants fans so that we may better understand the team's chances for success (or not) and hopefully share their insights with me. Please read my "OGC's Business Plan" link to better understand what my philosophy is for building a successful MLB team.
I want to teach and share my love of baseball and, in particular, my love for the San Francisco Giants. I will believe to my dying days that Bobby Bonds should be in Baseball’s Hall of Fame for being one of the few to bring the combination of power and speed to the game.
Why a blog? I love technology and society and just wanted to participate in this trend to see what it felt like. Plus I have a lot of questions I would like answered about the Giants and since I don't see anyone else tackling them, I've taken it upon myself to do it. Not that I'm that special, but just that I'm willing to put in the time to investigate them.