Think The Great Bond Bull Market Is Dead? Not So Fast

Post-election moves in 10Y yields and high hopes for the reflation trade (the “Trump bump”) have all but led a bevy of money managers to write its obituary.

But not so fast. According to the charts, the trend is still intact. Old bulls, like old habits, die hard.

Via Citi:

10y UST yields rose over 90bp from the low on Election day to 15 December’s highs but have now retraced 28bp. Arguably, the post GFC downtrend in yields remains intact for now let alone the broader downtrend of the last 30y+.

Writing about a subject is the best
way to educate yourself about it, and when I flick through past work I remember how much
they taught me, if no one else. Mainly they taught me that I didn’t know very much. But they
also taught me that most other people didn’t know much either. Thus, some key themes
which stand out include the illusory control of policy makers, the presumed knowledge of
those looking to them to actively do good, the ease with which we fool ourselves, and how
best to protect capital in the face of such unavoidable uncertainty. -- Dylan Grice