原文标题：Expect a Chinese attack by June/July原文链接：http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-china-in-2012-alarm-bells-ought-to-ring-in-new-delhi/20120109.htm

Last year when this author wrote about a Kargil- style foray by China in the near future, the idea was more in the realm of speculation. But the events of the last few months seem to move the likelihood from the speculative to the possible.

But it seems that New Delhi is in deep slumber or has no time to pay attention to such 'minor' issues like national security when all attention is focused on the upcoming assembly election in Uttar Pradesh.

It is, however, unfair to blame the government alo#8800 even the Opposition is equally busy in its perennial game of one 'UP-manship' and has never effectively taken up the issue of defence preparedness in Parliament.

The media is frivolous as ever and is chasing TRPs; unfortunately there are no TRPs to be gained on defence issues.

What makes matters even worse than 'normal' in Delhi today is the inefficiency that has crept in all decision-making due to the 'Diarchy' that prevails in Delhi.

For those unfamiliar with the term -- this was the system in British India when the rulers of the princely states had all the trappings of power but the British resident exercised the real power.

In its second avatar, the United Progressive Alliance resembles that model with real power in the hands of the Gandhi dynasty while the prime minister has all the trappings of power.

What this has done is the pivotal position of the Prime Minister's Office and its job of co-ordination and enforcement of the will of the government on the State machinery is severely compromised.

In case of vital decisions on security issues, this can lead to disasters.

让事情变得更糟糕的是德里盛行的“两极政权”导致决策效率低下。

有些人可能不熟悉“两极政权”这个术语。它指的是英属印度时期，印度土邦的统治者拥有所有象征性的权利，但是英国人行驶真正权利。

“两极政权”出现了第二个化身。在国民进步联盟政府中，真正权利掌握在甘地王朝手中，而总理拥有的只是象征性权利。

后果是总理办公室的支柱地位受到严重削弱，在协调和实施政府意志的工作方面也受到严重削弱。

在有关安全问题的重要决策中，这会带来灾难。

The portents indeed are ominous. On December 14, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Parliament that his government does not share the view that China plans to attack India.

Exactly half a century ago, another Indian prime minister stuck to a similar view, until November 21, 1962.

Broadcasting to the nation that day, that prime minister lamented that in this hour of peril, our heart goes to the people of Assam!

As Jawaharlal Nehru spoke to the nation, the civil administration in Tezpur had begun to burn documents and currency in the government treasury, prison doors were thrown open, and everyone made a beeline to get across the Brahmaputra by whatever means.

The stage was being set for surrendering all territory north of the Brahmaputra to the Chinese.

To the people of my generation, the memories of that day give goose pimples even today. The unfortunate similarities do not end there.

这些征兆的确是不吉利的。12月14日，曼莫汉·辛格总理告诉议会他的政府并不认同中国计划攻击印度的观点。

正好在半个世纪前，另一位印度总理坚持类似观点，一直到1962年11月21日。

那位总理当天在向全国发表广播讲话时哀悼：“在这危险时刻，我们的心和阿萨姆邦人民同在！”

随着贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁向全国发表讲话，提斯普尔的民政局开始烧毁国库的文件和货币。监狱门被打开。每个人都用各种方式直奔和越过布拉马普特拉河。

当时的计划是把布拉马普特拉河以北的领土让给中国人。

对于我这一代的人来说，当天的记忆今天想起来都会让人起鸡皮疙瘩。类似的不幸并没有结束。

Just a year before that, in 1961, the then defence minister V K Krishna Menon had a scrap in public with the highly esteemed army chief, who resigned and then took back his resignation on the prime minister's advice.

The prime minister then went on to humiliate the general in Parliament. As a consequence, the morale of the army was badly affected.

As someone who has studied that conflict, including the famed Henderson Brooks Report, one can say without any contradiction that 'loss of morale' was the single biggest cause of our debacle in 1962.

It is incredible that exactly after half a century we have a similar confrontation between the army chief and the defence ministry bureaucracy.

One of the horror stories of the 1962 conflict with China was the way India made a frenzied effort to arm the soldiers with modern weapons. The insistence on 'indigenous' production of arms and inability of the local R&D/factories starved Indian soldiers of tools of war.

So, what do we do?

Brand new rifles (the 7.62 SLR) were airdropped at Dirang Zong, of course without ammunition! As if the soldiers are robots who can instantly master new weapons and begin using it!

Import of the critical lightweight howitzer, so important to provide artillery support to infantry in the mountains, is stuck in the courts/CBI clearances and what not.

Anyone familiar with the armed forces remembers the phrase often used by superiors while giving orders, 'I do not care whether you beg, borrow or steal! I want this done!'

It is time to remind the defence minister that the country expects him to deliver security and efficiency.

His primary job is to ensure honour and safety of the country, and not his honour, that must come last, always and every time (a sort of modified version of the Chetwood pledge that all newly commissioned officers take).

It appears that China is carefully choreographing incidents with India. First, there were several instances of Chinese troops crossing the border, marking their presence. We have dismissed these as 'minor' incidents.

Then there was the verbal spat and exchange of notes over the Indian foray into oil exploration in Vietnam waters. The new year saw ill-treatment of an Indian diplomat. Earlier, there were cases of Indian diamond merchants being imprisoned in China. All these could well be dismissed as minor incidents that involve local officials.

China itself seem to be in the verge of crisis.... do you think they are likely to forge an attack on us rather than resolving their internal economic crisis...So I think this is almost impossible........

中国自己都处在危机边缘...你认为他们会不去解决自己的内部经济危机而跑来攻击我们吗...所以我认为这几乎不可能...

Re: Impossibleby Hamlet ThePrinceOfDenmark (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 10:09 PMWhat if they adapt the US-style war-economy balancing system. They would of course love to iron out the internal trouble-makers in the name of wartime crisis. Crisis might actually accelerate the war as it always did for the US of A.

China lacks the military capability to take on Yindia. Its tin can weapons are worse than its cell phones. This chap has been rumour mongering since ages. This is not 1962. This is 2012. India is a powerful country now.

However weak our defense is, China will not give another opportunity for US/NATO to intervene in its neighborhood for another 5-10 years.Now that threat from Pakistan is minimal, war mongers are hyping up China only to facilitate more defense spending by India which has 300 million hungry people - feed them or we won't need China for our doom.

Re: Defence middlemen would like some commission please..by LeftRightBajaoSingh (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 04:29 PMTrust me - The US neither wants/ nor will want to intervene. It only wants to restrict China to the ASIAN theatre, so that mainland US & the oil nations of middle east can be saved. Obama has been asking the question for a long time- Is India really worth saving? US bases in pakistan are only a long term prep for stopping China here itself.

china had been openly rejecting visa to Indian athletes and now Indian military official from Arunachalam (for participation in games and military team visit)to emphasize on Arunachal is theirs. better be ready or will have one more repeat of 1962.

中国公开拒绝给来自阿鲁纳恰尔邦的印度运动员和军官颁发签证，以此来强调阿鲁纳恰尔邦是他们的。最好做准备，否则1962年中印战争又会重演。

Re: what is there to predictby LeftRightBajaoSingh (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 04:10 PMThe same China though has been giving paper visas openly , freely to people from Kashmir even on the basis of incomplete documents.

Now usa is our side . in 1962 usa was in diefferent style.But even if USA with us , short sudden attck of china will make hurt us with big loss.Our Military is innocent they have treating like servants by our defence officials and Government.It will create another very big loss to us.

美国现在站在我们这边，而1962年时美国的行为风格不同。但是即使美国和我们在一起，中国的突袭也会让我们蒙受巨大损失。

我们的军队是无辜的。国防官员和政府将他们当做服务员看待。这会给我们造成另一场巨大失败。

Re: USA with us if china make anythingby sai pradeep (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:32 PMdont worry we have AGNI.

别担心，我们有烈火导弹。

Re: Re: USA with us if china make anythingby Mogu Engineers (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:57 PMAgni is nothing for chinese. Moreover u shld hav guts to fire Agni and be prepared for sveral Agnis in retaliations of Chinese.

烈火对于中国人来说不算什么。更重要的是你要有勇气发射烈火，然后准备应对中国人的几倍报复。

Re: Re: USA with us if china make anythingby Natly (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:58 PMU think china does not have anything. They are more powerful (military wise and technology wise) than us. If at all there is a war of even a small slap as the author says, we just got back by 20 years in development and can never compete with them again in near future and our super power dreams are all just a dream ( we keep day dreaming)

war now onwards shall be short and swift...no long drawn out wars...india should concentrate on air power, missile system and missile defence shield. Indian army is best in the world and can thrash PLA anyday..it needs to be equipped well...

China has never won any war in history!!!by Palash Bhattacharya (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:23 PM | Hide replies

If one looks at China's history one will notice that China has never won any war with any country. In the past China was repeatedly ravaged and even conquered by the Mongols. Later on China was occupied by the Japanese empire for a long time. Tibet had a friendship treaty with the British Govt and was safe as long as the British were around in India. Tibet. a primarily tribal and religious country, was later overrun by China. Even against India in 1962 there were several instances where a single Indian soldier or small Indian soldier groups held off large Chinese battalions for several days until reinforcements arrived. If it was not for the spineless and corrupt Govt in India, China would have remained a coward rat like it was when people like Rajiv Gandhi or even Atal Bihari Vajpayee were PMs. More recently Narendra Modi had visited China and he did some very tough talking to which China didn't mutter a single protest!! Why? .. because China knows people like Modi as PM can be their nemesis unlike the present UPA leaders.

Re: China has never won any war in history!!!by raheja (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:34 PMYou are wrong dear,look at the history. Chinese were at war with US on two occasions, one was in Korean War and the other during Vietnamese War. in both the occasion neither did US could win the war. Also it once slapped USSR (now Russia) also due to which there relationship are not at an all time high. They are not afriad of anything.

This is nothing but plain scare mongering! Yes, there are issued and disputes between China & India but will a pragmatic China risk international outcry & sanctions by unilaterally launching a strike against a big democratic country like India. Moreover, India & China have mutual trade worth billions!

Chinese articles says that india is developing ICBM's targeting china...When india disclose it's first nuke powered submarine china was worried. Indian army decided to raise mountain divisions china was worried...I guess for the first time china is taking india seriously