Friday, September 22, 2006

The Complex Case of Oliver Perez

Oliver Perez, in a span of a few years, has gone from a guy who routinely pitched at 95 mph+ in ‘04 to a guy who rarely broke 90 mph early this year (watch the WBC if you have to) to a guy who is back at around the 93-96 mph range. I think I can explain most of his velocity loss/regain.

ON TO THE ANALYSIS

First, a quick disclaimer. Perez has been the most challenging project so far. Why you ask?

As most of you are starting to realize, I am a big believer in establishing a quick tempo to home plate. Generally speaking, I
like using the beginning of the descent of the lead leg’s knee as reference and count frames into footplant in order to get a quantifiable count in which to compare the pitcher either to himself or other pitchers.

In Perez’s case, because of his frequent hesitations at the top of the knee lift, varying times to home and other factors, finding clips of what is
representative of what Perez does was quite the challenge.

I worked backwards with Perez. On the following clip, the three Perez (es) are synchronized to 3 frames after release. The clip is 19 frames long and release on each occurs at frame 16. Without saying anything else, let me show you the first clip. Watch it a few times, see what you can come up with. The frames where I see the biggest differences have numbers on them, BTW.

LET’S GO FRAME BY FRAME

FRAME 1

The positions here are different. Note how #1 is sitting back with his lead leg at around 90 degrees. The other two are “tucking in” their lead legs.
As you have already probably figured out, their tempos from this position to release are basically identical. Is tempo the issue? Not really, but there’s more to it. I’ll explain later.

FRAME 5

A frame which relates to what we saw on Frame 1.

FRAME 7

Ok. This is the biggie, IMO. Watch the video clip. Did you catch how much more #1 and #3 “reach back” (towards 3rd) more than #2? I see a big difference.
See for yourself….

Loading the shoulder horizontally is a big component for creating velocity. There is a “moment of truth” where the loading/unloading of the arm takes place. On this clip, the beginning of the unloading occurs on frames 11-12. That stretching/loading of the shoulder will occur before that. When it comes time to unleash hell, the upper body will be in a hyperflexed position with both elbows behind your back, ready to unleash.

A quick exercise

Stand up, elbows at shoulder height, forearms parallel to the ground, foreams at a 90 degree angle to your upper arm. You are about to elbow something behind you with both elbows. OK, now quickly elbow the air behind you, using both elbows.

Feel that stretch. Did you feel how after you’ve reached your maximum flexibility (max range of motion), your shoulder “fires back” in the opposite direction? You have reached your maximum stretch. At a very simple level, THAT is what the elastic loading/unloading of your shoulder should feel like when you pitch.

Why is this significant?

The arm will travel a longer path in the same amount of time=higher velocity.

FRAMES 9 and 11

Again, more examples of the shoulder loading differences. Also, on frame 9, do you see #1 and #3 more compact? Are they driving their front shoulders towards the 1st base dugout more than the more upright #2? This could be nitpicking….

TEMPO

You knew I couldn’t not talk about tempo. Here’s two clips of Ollie. They are their full motions. One taken early this year, the other taken from his recent start agains the Marlins. See if you spot “anything”.....

NOTE TO RICK PETERSON

If you are reponsible for this, then huge kudos to you. Where is the hesitation stuff you ask? Exactly. It seems like Perez was told “Just get it going. Get it up, get it down, quickly, quickly.” THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I RECOMMENDED TO MARK MULDER.
You know what it looks like to me? Rick Peterson probably went to Perez and said the following words, the 1st commandment of the throwing bible: LESS THINK, MORE THROW

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Second, if these things are so noticable why dont all pitching coaches tell their pitchers? Why does it take Rick Peterson to 'fix' his motion? Arent there 29 other people as knowledgable about pitching as Peterson (and you for that matter?)

He was only on the Pirates, so it's possible that any of the other 29 MLB pitching coaches could have 'fixed' him. Or it's possible that Carlos Gomez is going to be a great pitching coach. I like that one better.

I don't think they told him anything about extension back, it is about his torso position. In '04 he stayed very closed and then used his extended right leg as almost a gate to open his hips to get separation between upper/lower body to bring the 95. Then in '06, by tucking in his leg, he didn't stay nearly as closed getting almost no separation between upper/lower. Then on the Mets he's back staying closed with his upper body and letting his hips fly to the plate. Look how much more of the jersey you can see in '04/late '06 vs. '06 at frame 7.

I bet the Pirates told him to tuck in his leg to get more consistency--->control, but that led to him opening up his torso shortening the distance it had to travel sapping his velocity by 10 mph. The Mets have him back closed but turning aggresively to the plate with his lower half. By turning his torso back to being closed, it turns his arm back as well getting that good extension you described and then open his hips pulling his torso--->arm forward with speed. And by having that mental attitude in his motion of being aggresive again, it's picked up his tempo. Just my thoughts.

The problem I see now in late '06 is that he lands so closed that it's probably putting a lot of stress on his arm. It's not worth changing now, but they need to get him to somehow stay closed upper and turn his lower body even more to get squared up to the plate in the off-season or else his shoulder is going to explode.

Great work, CBW. I've been looking forward to seeing something about Oliver Perez.

It seems like Perez was told "Just get it going. Get it up, get it down, quickly, quickly."

This would seem to be likely, because I've noticed since Perez has been on the Mets, the times when his control really seems to start slipping, his delivery actually gets FASTER. It is as if he's consciously trying to remember to work faster and then he starts going a bit too fast. Balance, Ollie, balance!

CBW is looking like an inner-circle BTF HOF/HOM-er with these analyses. Fantastic work... we get stuck only with numerical data and random anecdotal evidence around here (myself included), it's great to see some descriptive data analyzed in a systematic way.

BTW, I think there is a "lava lizard of the Galapagos islands" joke in there somewhere. Watching Perez's speedier delivery and "Less Think, More Throw" just cracks me up... watched BD a few weeks ago. The beautiful thing about baseball is that the best baseball movies never seem dated.

I don't think they told him anything about extension back, it is about his torso position.

I'm pretty certain that there's not many coaches out there preaching "extension back towards 3rd" (for a lefty.)

I bet the Pirates told him to tuck in his leg to get more consistency--->control

I agree. I don't know if it was as specific as "tuck the leg in," but, yeah, I believe it was done in order to get him more under control. Also, in my first draft, I was going to mention his disappearing leg swing. I actually like '04 Sit & Swing Perez more than the current version, but oh well.

And by having that mental attitude in his motion of being aggresive again, it's picked up his tempo.

yes, yes, and yes. Although I would probably say it the other way around. He picked up his tempo first which makes him be aggressive, both with his arm and body.

RE: Staying closed
I see your point on staying closed. Watching recent film of him, it seems Perez has a difficult time with keeping his front shoulder under control.
Unless he continues to develop more consistent mechanics, Mets fans are going to have to get used with taking the good with the bad. He'll be wild, but hopefully he can K enough people and keep the ball in the park.

To be fair to the Pirates (a little anyway) Perez was tutored by two pitching coaches - Spin Williams and Jim Colborn.

Williams was credited for the 2004 Perez (there was a lot of press at the time of the work they did on his mechanics in Spring Training). Williams was also blamed for the 2005 Perez. Perez did not pitch or stay in pitching shape between those seasons and that was generally thought to be the root cause. That and kicking a laundry cart. It was assumed by some online (that I read) that Perez was hiding some type of arm injury.

Jim Colborn (who has scrwwed with and up the Pirates starting pretty consistently this season) was unable to get Perez back to 2004. It was no surprise to me that the Pirates then traded Perez as Tracy and his coaching staff are held in higher regard by Littlefield (in my estimation).

As someone who tried to pitch earlier in their life, I can attest that when you lose your mechanics, it can take an awful lot to get back to them. If the Mets can turn Perez back into a useful pitcher, regardless of what Xavier Nady does the rest of his career, this will be a bad trade for the Pirates. Not Craig Wilson for Shawn Chacon bad, but bad.

My guess is he had an injury at some point that wasn't sufficient to bench him and he played through it by slowing down his motion and controlling his delivery a little more, developing some bad habits.

I thought (and said on several occasions), watching Perez struggle through '05, that he was hiding some sort of injury.

Those final frames are interesting, CBW. It looks like he's vastly speeded up his delivery.

How did he get out of sync in the first place? My guess is he had an injury at some point that wasn't sufficient to bench him and he played through it by slowing down his motion and controlling his delivery a little more, developing some bad habits.

Kevin, I certainly wouldn't eliminate injury as a cause. I'm leaning more towards the Pirates having told him to get more under control. He's young, brash, and likes to throw hard. Don't take that away from him just yet.

This would seem to be likely, because I've noticed since Perez has been on the Mets, the times when his control really seems to start slipping, his delivery actually gets FASTER.

Banta, good point. I've seen about 5 or 6 innings of Perez as a Met. I'm a big proponent of a speedy delivery, but, yeah, he might be "too quick" sometimes. However, he should make every attempt to synchronize all those moving parts as quickly as possible.

First off -- unbelievable article. But -- and I see this on the Mets chatters too -- why does anyone think he has been better since coming to the Mets other than the fact that he is throwing harder. Other than one fluky start he has pretty much stunk for the Mets too, no? I don't think he will ever be consisent enough to be a starter. Maybe they should put him in the pen.

Other than one fluky start he has pretty much stunk for the Mets too, no?

His first two starts for the Mets were very rocky. His third start was a gem. But the last two starts are interesting. Over those two games, he struck out 17 batters in 10.3 IP, and walked 5, giving up 10 hits. Forget giving him a break on a bad defensive play on the double in the last game that drove him out, or Bradford having a poor effort in relief. Just look at the difference between his recent starts as a Met, where he's striking out more than a batter an inning. In 12 Pirate starts, he struck out more batters than IP 4 times. In 5 Met starts, he's done it in 3 of 5 games (and one of the 2 he didn't was his CG).

As a Met, Perez looks like this:

32 K in 27.3 IP, 10.54 K/9, 2.46 K/BB ratio, 1.54 WHIP, 1.32 HR/9

As a Pirate, Perez looks like this:

61 K in 74 IP, 7.42 K/9, 1.20 K/BB ratio, 1.88 WHIP, 1.54 HR/9

There has been a dramatic improvement in Oliver Perez since joining the Mets. He's clearly not there yet, but his strikeout rate has returned to pre-2005 levels, his walks are down, his HR rate is down. That's not all park; it's too large a change.

It could be a sample size issue, but from what we've seen here, there is a mechanical difference that most likely is contributing at least somewhat. And we're talking about a 25 year old pitcher coming from a troubled organization. There is a good deal to be excited about.

Also, let me add my kudos to CBW for another great look at the mechanics-side of things. Stuff like this really gives tremendous insight that most people can't get on their own. Particularly for someone like me, with a 27 MPH eephus as my #1 pitch.

Regarding #11, I know that the Expos' minor league instructors definitely taught this. Brent Strom was the MiL pitching co-ordinator at the time, although I'm not sure off the top of my head if he's still there with the Nats...

It was amazing for me to see my former players come home from summers with the Expos, and how much there deliveries had changed since I had them in high school. The 'spos really stressed the elbows coming together behind the back (exactly in the manner that you mentioned), with the elbow picking up the ball... (I think that they referred to it as "linear" pitching, although I might be wrong on that)

In response to Kevin, you can do this with runners and many people do (primarily professional sprinters). However, I seem to remember Jose Reyes working with a running coach to alter his sprinting posture and mechanics to help prevent the hamstring problems that have plagued him.

I'd also like to add that the layout of this article is easier to read than the mulder (not that I didn't enjoy that one!). The comments along with each picture makes it easier to follow your analysis, rather than scrolling back and forth from the first animation.

How great is this? Thanks, CBW. I'll not say anything more harsh about the Pirates (not after that dusting they gave the Mets last weekend that delayed the clinching . . . .), but suffice it to say that this does demonstrate vividly the value of at least having a fresh (if not a better) set of eyes look at what a pitcher is doing differently from the time when he was doing well.

I'll even try to give some benefit-of-the-doubt here. You know what we don't know? Maybe the Pirates saw exactly the same thing, and tried to work with Perez on it. But by that time, maybe he had tuned them out, either not believing anymore they had anything worthwhile to say, or having formed just a bad attitude, or whatever. Or maybe they were just bad at communicating to him what they were trying to get across. Perhaps Peterson -- with a fresh start, with a winning reputation and a winning organization -- got Perez's attention. It'd just be fascinating to hear a panel discussion (at which everyone could and would be candid -- fat chance of that!) with Perez, the various Pirate pitching coaches, and Peterson talking about what they did, tried, didn't do, etc.

Anybody that thinks they can take a few clips of Oliver Perez and declare they have found his problem is nuts.. obviously they don't know Perez. Peterson can balance him better.. the AMSI lab can show him what would be best.. but the bottom line is, Perez is Perez. A cross-thrower will *always* have mechanical flaws. Fix one here and two others pop up.. etc.

I've watched Ollie's every performance since 2002 and I can tell you there is no difference between Oliver Perez today than there was as a Pirate or a Padre. A couple of good outings against teams he has always done well against isn't impressive.

When Perez starts putting up a 3/1 K/BB rate, then I'll believe somebody has made a difference. Until then, Mets fans will be disappointed in Perez just like Pirate and Padre fans were unless Peterson only uses him when the matchup is best.

I've watched Ollie's every performance since 2002 and I can tell you there is no difference between Oliver Perez today than there was as a Pirate or a Padre. A couple of good outings against teams he has always done well against isn't impressive.

BS- I saw him pitch in SD and in Pitt in 2004- I didn't see him in 2005- I saw him early in 2006 and was stunned- he looked TOTALLY different- maybe, just maybe, the change was gradual enough that if you watched every start you wouldn't notice-

Great work. I am surprised that most teams don't take this more seriously or invest more heavily in research in this direction. When you think about the millions that the cubs are loosing as a result of prior and wood they could have spent a lot and still come out ahead.

Actually is anyone is likely to latch on it might be Scott Boras. He always seems open to new ideas and keeping his clients healthy makes him more money.

When you think about the millions that the cubs are loosing as a result of prior and wood they could have spent a lot and still come out ahead.

Actually is anyone is likely to latch on it might be Scott Boras. He always seems open to new ideas and keeping his clients healthy makes him more money.

Whoa now, let's not get ahead of ourselves. CBW is primarily talking about velocity and control -- i.e. performance -- not health. There was certainly plenty of scary stuff in the Mulder clip but even there we don't know whether the bad mechanics caused the injury or were in response to the injuries (or the pre-injuries or whatever).

Obviously mechanics and health are related but I don't see anything CBW is doing here as the holy grail of pitcher health. I love what he does and it's great that schlubs like us get the benefit of his expertise. And this sort of thing is really sort of the minimum that a modern pitching coach should be doing, so if they aren't CBW should be hired immediately. But great as it is, this is still pretty primitive compared to AMSI type stuff which we know some pitching coaches are already using.

Again, great job CBW. And if you can actually keep Prior healthy (before he leaves the Cubs!), then I will shout your genius from the highest rooftop in New Zealand.

Excellent work in getting the video data onto a web page, as well as the interesting analysis. It's kind of scary if the Pirates didn't notice what CBW is referring to. If Perez gets back to even close to what he was, it's worth millions of dollars.

If you're taking suggestions, CBW, it might be cool to see a comparison of some of the different deliveries Orlando Hernandez uses. I saw him pitch last week, and he had all kinds of stuff going on there.

#15why does anyone think he has been better since coming to the Mets other than the fact that he is throwing harder.

My analyses are going to focus on mechanical efficiency, not on-field performance so much. Do I think throwing harder (for Perez) will have a positive effect on the field? Yes, I do.

#18Brent Strom was the MiL pitching co-ordinator at the time

Brent Strom and I come from the same school of thought I think. I think Paul Nyman, to whom I credit a lot of my knowledge to, has had a huge influence on him as well. As a matter of fact, Nyman was asked to speak to Expos minor leaguers a few years ago. From what I hear, Strom was not very well liked by others in the organization because his teachings were very much against the grain of what is currently taught. I think I'm going to run into the same kind of opposition from higher ups. My teachings aren't exactly the most conventional ones. However, I'm confident enough to tell you that I know more about the mechanics of throwing a baseball than most in pro baseball. Yeah, I went there.....

#20
thanks for the feedback. I look back on the Mulder one and think I could've done better. I'M getting better, I promise....LOL

#21
That could be true. Perez might have thought "these guys don't know what I'm trying to do," and just tuned them out. We don't know what the Pirates tried, we can only speculate based on what I see on video.

#22
I honestly don't know what to say except that there are plenty of mechanical differences in Perez today vs in '04 and '05.

#26
I agree, Tim Hudson would be interesting, b/c I proclaimed him the best and most likely of the A's 3 pitchers to keep his stuff. Has me wondering why his velo is down, although he looks the same. As of now, Buehrle is next, probably followed by Prior, then I don't know....Peavy is an intriguing one. I'm torn on him. I like his tempo, leg action, stepover (I'll explain when I get to him), his aggressiveness. I wonder if his aggressive front side won't do him in.

#29Again, great job CBW. And if you can actually keep Prior healthy (before he leaves the Cubs!), then I will shout your genius from the highest rooftop in New Zealand.

Prior will be a very interesting subject. I have already done some video on him on this site, and I think I can see his issues very clearly. He'll be Mulder-easy to compare....

So what velocity does he actually have now? I watched a number of his Pirates games and he was topping out at 88. I haven't seen any starts since he joined the Mets. Is he up to 93 or is he back up to 97?

Also, in response to his coachability, I agree that he seemed uncoachable in the Pirates organization (for whatever reason), but you have to imagine that if Petersen got him 10 MPH on his fastball in a month that Perez will pretty much do whatever he says.

I've seen him top out recently at 96 mph, with him pretty consistently in the 93-95 mph range. Other Met fans may have seen more of his starts than I have, and may be able to tell you if he's hit the 97's and 98's that he used to.

IIRC, on the clips above, #1 is at 98 mph, #2 at 89 mph, and #3 at 94 mph.

One other aspect of his delivery that concerns me is where he steps upon delivery. He steps way off to the lst base side of the plate having his momentum taking him away from the plate...directing his lead "away" from the target and maybe more importantly locking up his hips making it almost impossible to explode towards home.

I think that if he steps more towards home he can open up and use his hips as he now is able to drive towards home instead of throwing over his body.

re: Arent there 29 other people as knowledgable about pitching as Peterson?

They may be as knowledgable, but I'm not sure they are as relentless about watching video and poring over stats as Peterson. The last time I went to interview him, I got to the clubhouse very early, and he had just sat down to watch structured video of his starter and was taking notes and marking up big tables. I figured 20 minutes, and we'd talk. 2-1/4 hours later he "finished", headed over to another coach and had an intense 30-minute conversation, I think about what he'd seen and noted.

Let's grant each of those other 29 guys know something Peterson doesn't, but I suspect from a video and numbers p.o.v., Peterson is the extreme outlier. He's been w/2 organizations now that are very supportive; the Mets produce customized reports he designed and give him a lot of latitude without necessarily understanding his science/art mix, and that's an exceptionally courageous practice for a big entity like that.

Truly crunchewy post, CBW. Thanks.

And as far as #22, I share a wait and see attitude. I'd like to see a big handful of additional starts before I get too exuberant. I think, though, he's been given a foundation on which he can succeed; the outcome can go either way.

Let's grant each of those other 29 guys know something Peterson doesn't, but I suspect from a video and numbers p.o.v., Peterson is the extreme outlier. He's been w/2 organizations now that are very supportive; the Mets produce customized reports he designed and give him a lot of latitude without necessarily understanding his science/art mix, and that's an exceptionally courageous practice for a big entity like that.

Not only that, but from what I can tell his influence extends through the minor league organization as well. I know that the Mets didn't call Perez to the majors earlier when they needed a spot starter, because Peterson didn't feel as though Perez was ready and wanted to keep him with Randy Niemann for a while longer.

I thank you for the feedback regarding Peterson. I had a feeling that he's a pitching coach that truly "gets it." I know he's involved with ASMI and their high-speed video analysis and such.

As to this comment....I think, though, he's been given a foundation on which he can succeed; the outcome can go either way.

That's basically where I stand myself. I'm not sure how his career will turn out from here. At least, temporarily, he has regained his velocity. And I believe velocity is very key for his success. However, we don't know how he'll trun out from here or if Perez will revert to old ways or not. However, like you say, if it is indeed Peterson who had a hand in rediscovering his lost velocity, the foundation has been set for him to be successful.

it might be fun, rather than focusing only one pitchers who seem to have lost something, to focus on someone who has retained his ability, like clemens, and try to examine what he's been doing right (besides the workout stuff we always hear about, and steroids, obviously)

i remember watching oliver pitch in 04 and thinking WOW - stunned - i thought he would be the next great lefty ace

he was a totally different guy when i saw him again next year - of course i dodn't know WHAT was different, but he had no popping FB - i thought he had some injury

i also think that guys pretty much have the same motion. if i am at the game i can tell who is warming up in the bullpen by just their motion. sometimes i can pick out some other teams' starter just by their motion too (if i can't see their face or jersey). i can pretty much pick up THAT a guy's motion is off but not how (just like i can tell you morgan ensberg's swing is way off but not what is wrong or what he is doing wrong)

about coaches - if a guy is throwin really well, and the coach insists he do something different and it makes him worse, i would guess the guy would not be listening to the coach real too good while he trying to get his old mechanics back.

i think that one sign of a real ace is if he can adjust during a game - i have watched both roy AND roger do this

as long as we're on the subject of other projects for CBW, I'd like to put a word in for Brandon Webb. I've really been fascinated by his shift from being one of the most walk prone pitchers in the majors 2 yrs ago (5.15 bb/9) to one of the better control pitchers in the NL (1.94 bb/9). is it a change in mechanics or just his overall maturation as a pitcher (probably a bit of both)? i haven't watched him enough to be able to say, but it'd be great to have some light shed on it.

I'm actually quite intrigued by him as well. I think I'll have to move him up in the rotation. There's probably more interest in him than Prior at this point of the season. I've got Buehrle next, which should be completely done in the next few days (all lefties so far, huh?). I'm actually leaning now towards Webb or Hudson instead of Prior. Well, we'll see....

I'm guessing Hoffman will win the Cy. But not because he's been the best pitcher, but because he's been lights out when they most need him and the writers love that "clutch" stuff and Carpenter has had a couple rough starts in this stretch of 7 straight losses.

Thought of a great one if you can get it CBW: Pedro Martinez. BBTN showed a clip of him last night and then an old one in Boston and I didn't see it well enough to say anything more than he looked very different.

I also had forgotten how disgusting the run on his 97 was back in his prime there, not to mention his curveball-like-changeup.

I don't think I'll be able to find much video of him. When he gets to the states, I'll be able to do better.

Thought of a great one if you can get it CBW: Pedro Martinez.

Yeah, he'd be great. He's really slowed down tempo-wise quite a bit. Plus, he really doesn't "go after it" like he used. Then again, I've seen clips of Glavine, Maddux, others, and they've all seemed to slow down their tempo as they got older. I wonder if it's just a result of getting old or if they just so happened to want to get "more controlled" as they got older

Oh, and an update. I'm going to skip the Buehrle analysis for now since, really, there's just not much there that is different from this year to last. Plus, it's getting tiring hearing the "He Gone, he gone, he gone" from Hawk F. on the highlight clips I have of Buehrle.