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Monday, November 5, 2012

In his final prognostications, national political expert Larry Sabato (Univ. of Virginia) has moved Arizona's 1st Congressional District from the "Leans Democratic" to the "Leans Republican" column, indicating a last minute shift from former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick to former State Senator Jonathan Paton.

Sabato indicates that the change "reflect(s) late tips from our sources as well as our own instincts." He also has moved the Senate battle from "Toss-up" to "Leans Republican" - likely on the basis of yesterday's release of the Public Policy Polling results.In Arizona's other competitve Congressional seats, Sabato sees Rep. Ron Barber as a "likely" to defeat Martha McSally in CD2, and CD9 as a "leans Democratic" - favoring Kyrsten Sinema over Vernon Parker. (He also prognosticates that President Obama will wind up with 290 electoral college votes, 20 more than needed for re-election.

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