Monday, August 29, 2016

Melog Rankings: Pre-US Open 2016

The year's final Slam, the US Open, starts today. And the lead-up to the Open has been unsettled at best; each of the usual favorites comes in with some kind of red flag.

Novak Djokovic, still comfortably #1 in the world and the defending US Open champion, lost in the first round of the Rio Olympics (albeit to about the toughest draw imaginable for a first-round match), then withdrew from the Cincinnati Masters with a wrist injury. If the wrist is still less than 100%, he could run into problems as early as the fourth round, when he likely faces either John Isner or Richard Gasquet.

Rafael Nadal is in the second quarter of the draw, and scoffs at Djokovic's injury worries; his own wrist issues are also on the left side, but since he's left-handed, that's rather more important for him. He reached the Olympic semis before losing back-to-back matches to miss out on a medal (although he did win gold in doubles); more troubling, he lost decisively in the Cincinnati round of 16 in a match that was almost certainly affected by injury. His segment of the bracket isn't overpowering, but Roberto Bautista Agut is a possible fourth-rounder, and he made Djokovic work quite hard at the same stage of the tournament last year. Likely foes beyond that point are Milos Raonic and Gael Monfils, both of whom have played formidably well this year.

Andy Murray is in better physical shape than the other two, and was on a run of some of the best tennis of his life, winning Queen's Club, Wimbledon, and Olympic gold in succession. He then cruised into the Cincinnati final - and lost in straight sets to Marin Cilic, who had never before made the semifinal of a Masters. Cilic is certainly capable of brilliant play at times, but Murray entered that match with an 11-3 record against him and the longest winning streak of his career, and... fatigue or no, that's probably a match he should have won.

But all three of them are better off than Roger Federer, whose knee-driven absence from the tour continues, and really starts to take its toll on his ranking this week.

Player

Melog

Rank change (last update)

Melog change (last update)

Rank change (start of yr)

Melog change

(start of yr)

1

Novak Djokovic

83.6

0

-2.1

0

-17.7

2

Andy Murray

60.7

0

2.5

0

-5.1

3

Roger Federer

38.5

0

-5.1

0

-27.0

4

Rafael Nadal

36.3

0

-0.4

0

-3.9

5

Kei Nishikori

30.3

0

1.0

3

-1.2

6

Milos Raonic

28.5

0

2.1

4

9.6

7

Tomas Berdych

24.3

0

-0.7

-2

-12.2

8

Marin Cilic

24.2

2

3.8

14

12.2

9

Stanislas Wawrinka

23.3

0

0.0

-2

-9.3

10

David Goffin

22.6

-2

-0.9

9

8.5

11

Gael Monfils

21.9

2

2.5

6

6.9

12

Roberto Bautista Agut

21.3

0

1.3

-1

2.8

13

Dominic Thiem

20.4

-2

0.3

17

11.7

14

Nick Kyrgios

18.6

2

1.4

10

7.4

15

Jo Wilfried Tsonga

17.5

0

-0.6

-2

-0.3

16

Richard Gasquet

16.6

-2

-2.4

-7

-9.0

17

John Isner

16.3

2

1.4

-3

-0.5

18

Philipp Kohlschreiber

16.2

0

0.8

-2

0.4

19

David Ferrer

15.6

-2

0.0

-13

-18.5

20

Jack Sock

11.4

0

-0.2

0

-2.0

21

Pablo Cuevas

11.0

1

1.0

19

4.6

22

Grigor Dimitrov

10.1

6

1.6

-1

-2.6

23

Steve Johnson

9.8

1

0.4

5

0.8

24

Fernando Verdasco

9.8

-1

0.1

3

0.4

25

Juan Martin Del Potro

9.3

0

0.1

79

8.2

26

Feliciano Lopez

9.3

-5

-1.0

6

1.2

27

Bernard Tomic

9.2

7

1.4

-4

-2.1

28

Gilles Muller

8.8

-1

0.2

-3

-2.3

29

Gilles Simon

8.7

-3

-0.2

-14

-7.7

30

Fabio Fognini

8.7

0

0.4

9

2.0

31

Alexander Zverev

7.9

-2

-0.5

53

5.8

32

Guido Pella

7.9

1

0.1

26

4.2

33

Albert Ramos

7.6

2

-0.1

3

0.2

34

Andrey Kuznetsov

7.3

-3

-0.8

57

5.6

35

Ivo Karlovic

6.8

-3

-1.1

-17

-7.5

36

Marcos Baghdatis

6.7

0

-0.1

5

0.7

37

Sam Querrey

6.6

1

0.6

6

1.1

38

Carlos Berlocq

6.4

1

0.5

33

3.5

39

John Millman

6.4

2

0.9

26

3.2

40

Borna Coric

5.7

0

0.0

21

2.3

41

Viktor Troicki

5.4

13

1.6

-7

-2.2

42

Pablo Carreno Busta

5.3

7

1.1

26

2.3

43

Kevin Anderson

5.2

-6

-1.2

-31

-13.0

44

Jeremy Chardy

4.9

-2

-0.4

-15

-3.8

45

Marcel Granollers

4.6

2

0.3

56

3.3

46

Guido Andreozzi

4.5

2

0.3

93

4.3

47

Jiri Vesely

4.5

-2

0.2

1

-0.3

48

Kyle Edmund

4.5

-4

0.0

51

3.1

49

Federico Delbonis

4.3

2

0.3

7

0.4

50

Adrian Mannarino

4.2

9

0.5

1

-0.3

51

Nicolas Almagro

4.1

-5

-0.2

3

0.0

52

Mikhail Youzhny

4.1

0

0.1

134

4.4

53

Mikhail Kukushkin

4.0

-10

-0.6

14

0.9

54

Yen Hsun Lu

3.9

2

0.1

1

0.0

55

Martin Klizan

3.9

0

0.1

22

1.2

56

Lucas Pouille

3.9

-3

0.0

31

1.9

57

Ivan Dodig

3.8

0

0.1

-5

-0.4

58

Nicolas Mahut

3.7

7

0.7

40

2.2

59

Andreas Seppi

3.6

-9

-0.4

-24

-3.9

60

Guillermo Garcia Lopez

3.4

6

0.4

-34

-6.1

61

Thomaz Bellucci

3.3

0

0.0

-15

-1.9

62

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman

3.3

17

0.8

20

0.9

63

Juan Monaco

3.2

4

0.3

-18

-2.0

64

Taylor Harry Fritz

3.1

0

0.0

8

0.2

65

Daniel Evans

3.1

3

0.2

42

2.0

66

Radek Stepanek

3.0

12

0.5

53

2.3

67

Gastao Elias

2.9

2

0.1

79

2.8

68

Sergiy Stakhovsky

2.9

12

0.5

-6

-0.4

69

Benoit Paire

2.8

3

0.1

-22

-2.4

70

Dudi Sela

2.8

-8

-0.4

22

1.0

71

Joao Sousa

2.8

-8

-0.4

-29

-2.8

72

Jan Lennard Struff

2.7

5

0.3

33

1.6

73

Illya Marchenko

2.7

2

0.1

6

0.3

74

Paolo Lorenzi

2.6

-4

-0.2

1

-0.1

75

Damir Dzumhur

2.5

-2

-0.1

19

0.8

Quick hits from the last couple of weeks: Cilic's Cincinnati title boosts him to a season-high ranking. A couple of decent Cincy runs (or removals of bad losses from last year's event) help out other players slightly lower in the rankings (most notably Grigor Dimitrov, back on the edge of rejoining the top 20 after reaching the Cincy semis). And Murray gains a bit of ground, while Federer loses a lot (he took the Cincinnati title last year and was unavailable to defend it this season).

But now to the big story: The US Open is really going to shake this table up.

For starters, Federer, who reached the final last year, will be absent this time around; I'm fairly comfortable in stating that he can be expected to fall out of the top 3 for the first time in 2016. And given that the three players immediately behind him all lost in the round of 32 or earlier last year (including a first-round upset for Nishikori, a match in which he held a couple of match points before losing), it would hardly come as a surprise for him to slip outside the top 5.

Other first-round exits last year included Gael Monfils and Nick Kyrgios (the former due to injury withdrawal, the latter due to drawing Murray in his opener). Both of them have rather more favorable situations this time around, with top-16 seeds in relatively weak draw sections; both are likely to reach the second week, and if they play well or get help from upsets, could go significantly further. (Or they could lose early again; neither man is exactly the most consistent performer on tour.)

But the biggest possible alteration would be at the top. Andy Murray was upset by Kevin Anderson in the round of 16 at last year's US Open. If he can avoid a similar fate this year, he should continue to narrow the gap between himself and Djokovic even if Novak defends his title. And if Murray takes the title from Novak in the final, or even more, if Djokovic falters early for the second Slam in a row and Murray ends up with the trophy...

Look, I don't recommend writing off Novak Djokovic until he actually loses. But his margin at #1 is the smallest it's been all year (in both Melog and the ATP rankings), and he's got some work to do in order to preserve it. As unlikely as it looked just a couple months ago when Novak was holding all four Slams, there's actually a race for year-end #1 this season, and the US Open obviously has a huge role in how that will play out.

Also, you know, it's a Grand Slam. It's kind of worthy of note on its own merits.