Saturday, June 05, 2004

InformationWeek > Databases > Database Sales On Slow Growth Track > June 4, 2004 "The relational database market grew 7.6% last year to $13.6 billion, the report says. But most of that growth, calculated in U.S. dollars, was because of currency-exchange-rate changes in Europe. The real growth rate was closer to 2% in constant currency, the report says. IDC projects the database market will reach $20 billion by 2008.
Oracle, which reported 8.6% database revenue growth to $5.4 billion in 2003, is the market leader, with a 39.8% market share. IBM, which recorded 5.5% revenue growth to $4.3 billion, came in second in market share, with 31.3%. Microsoft recorded a hefty 14.7% revenue growth, albeit slower than in 2002, to capture the third spot, with a 12.1% market share.
...
Gartner's database market numbers, issued last month, gave IBM the top market position. Gartner calculated the size of the 2003 database market at $7.1 billion, with 5.1% growth--although the market-research firm also attributed most of that growth to currency-exchange-rate changes. Market numbers from the two firms differ because, among other reasons, Gartner only counts software license revenue, while IDC adds maintenance revenue to the mix."

That's actually a bit kind; the Gartner results were radically different, asserting that Microsoft SQL Server was essentially flat-lining, that IBM had a 35.7% overall share compared to Oracle's 32.6%, etc. As with any analysis domain, it's critically important to read the fine print. Also, with Wintel and Lintel the only DBMS platforms showing significant growth at this point, Microsoft's (100% Windows) DBMS market share is more impressive than the IDC and Gartner numbers suggest.