You see where I’m going with this. The Yankees had a deficit that they had to maintain late in the game. They weren’t going to enjoy a save situation, and they have the best postseason reliever in the history of the game in the bullpen. Yet, Joe Girardi did what he always does: He went with the match-ups. It was a decision with which I did not agree then and do not agree in hindsight.

To me, the idea is a simple one. In high leverage situations, the ideal way to manage involves bringing in the best. To keep the game at 2-0, a large but not insurmountable deficit with Cliff Lee on the mound, Joe Girardi needed his bullpen to be perfect. It was, as we saw, far from it. David Robertson didn’t have his best stuff, and the Rangers kept finding holes. They went first-to-third a few times, knocked out a few big hits and suddenly found themselves with a blowout on their hands. It all went wrong in a hurry.

In reality though, it went wrong when the inning started with Boone Logan on the mound. Going with Logan to face Hamilton isn’t an indefensible move. After all, Logan was death on lefties this year, and Hamilton OPS’d over .300 points lower against southpaws than he did right-handers. That Hamilton’s only hits of the ALCS have come against lefties is just one of those flukes of the postseason.

Still, as I watched the ninth unfold, I had a nagging suspicion that it should have been Mariano’s inning. It was absolutely incumbent upon the Yankees to keep the game at 2-0, and that’s the job for Mariano. Yesterday afternoon, I praised Joe Girardi for making the right decisions, but I think this one was the wrong one.

It’s interesting to me to watch Girardi manage a postseason series in which the Yankees are simply getting outplayed. They’re being out-pitched, out-hit and even out-managed. They haven’t mounted a rally since the eighth inning of Game 1, and they’ve trailed in 25 of 27 innings so far. It’s been a lesson in total domination.

Yet, I see hesitancy from Girardi that is at least worth questioning. This ALCS is the first time in the postseason that Girardi has had to coax results from the team, and he hasn’t pressed the right buttons. He let Phil Hughes throw into the fifth on Saturday and allowed him to surrender seven runs in a playoff game. He didn’t go to Mo last night. During the regular season, those moves might work out, but they don’t fit in a short series.

As Hughes’ disastrous outing unfolded, I kept thinking back to Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Granted, Game 7 has a bit more urgency than Game 2, but there, Joe Torre cut his losses quickly. When Roger Clemens threatened to bury the Yankees with his poor pitching, in came Mike Mussina with runners on first and third and no one out. The Yankees couldn’t afford to slip further behind, and it was time for a stopper. A starting pitcher can’t be allowed to dig a big hole in do-or-die situations.

Over the years, Joe Torre’s bugaboo became his unwillingness to use Mariano in a non-save situation on the road. In the 2003 World Series, he went with Jeff Weaver while Mo waited for a save situation that never came. Last night, the circumstances were different because the save situation wasn’t ever going to come, but still the Yanks’ future Hall of Fame closer just sat there. Mariano Rivera did not pitch.

There was never going to be a save situation in this game, trailing at home in the 9th. When does your best pitch?

mike c (LETS GO YANK KEEEZ)

the yankees bullpen outside of mo should have been capable of doing the job last night.

tommydee2000

As should Jeff Weaver in 2003.

mike c (LETS GO YANK KEEEZ)

well in that case, you should use your time machine to go back and tell everybody the right move to make

Jimendy

The right move to have made was Mo. 9th inning down 2 runs, at home you bring in your best This is not hindsight, this is basic managing. Girardi once again overthinking and over analyzing a simple situation and making the wrong decision 3 times in 1 inning. You seem to have that Girardi mindset yourself. If you think that was the right decision in your hindsight, you better not quit your day job.

nyyank55

Right on, that’s why Girardi will be gone and taking his sorry act ti Chitown. HURRAY!!!!!

tommydee2000

I said it at the time. History proved me correct.

Slugger27

they play 3 days in a row… and aj burnett starts tomorrow

mo will likely be needed for more than 3 outs in each of the next 2 nights

if the score is tied, you go to mo in the 9th last night… but knowing you play the next 2 nights with aj pitching 1 of the games, i dont see the point to pitching mo there

Mike Pop

You can’t assume that though. We know Mo was the best option at that time. It could be 8-0 or 5-3 tomorrow night, we don’t know. But we knew what was going on in this game.

Slugger27

We know Mo was the best option at that time.

well, we know mo is the best option ANY time,regardless of the score. you could say that about every game played. if we didnt have to play the next 2 days in a row with no break, id be all for mo pitching. but the reality is, that game (the 8.3% that FG gives us i think is generous) was over. our bullpen has been LIGHTS OUT the entire postseason

i was comfortable letting the other guys try to keep them scoreless… the worst outcome that could happen DID happen, and it still didnt really make a difference, cuz he had >90% chance of losing anyway.

mo will get a 4out save tonight, and a 3out save tomorrow :)

Jimendy

The bullpen has been VERY GOOD, not LIGHTS OUT, as was demonstrated last night

Sweet Lou

Agree 100%

Murderer’s Row wouldn’t have touched Lee last night. Also, how can you get out-managed when your team scores 0 runs!?!

Slugger27

ya, that was a confusing statement

its funny that washington is “outmanaging” girardi in a series where his team blew a 5run lead and his best reliever never pitched… and the reasoning behind this statement is because girardi didnt waste mo for an inning in a game they were losing and totally helpless.

Neil

As stated Ben said it at the time it was happening. I felt the same way. With Mo totally rested you need to keep it at 2-0 with your best reliever and hopefully get somebody on in the 9th and give yourself a chance for a win. Unfortunately it was a disaster with each reliever failing to do the job and Lee did not have to throw another pitch.

josh

i agree with just about everything you are saying here but i think lee wouldve pitched the 9th anyway and shut the yanks down. as far as the dominance, either the rangers are that much better than the yanks right now (in which case this series is over), or the yankees are way over due for a few well played games (particularly the line-up). i happen to think the latter. this team is way too good to be getting dominated like this for the whole series. obviously, the big fear going into tonight is that the lineup comes together and puts up runs but aj gives them up. i actually have faith the yanks will win a nice 7-3 type game. i dont know why i feel that way however, i guess im thinking with my heart and not my head.

http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee

I don’t think he would have, Feliz was warming up as soon as Kinsler was at the plate. Lee threw a buttload of pitches, I don’t think Washington would have put him out to throw a total of 130.

http://www.twitter.com/jordan_smed JGS

I don’t know about that. They didn’t start congratulating Lee in the dugout until after the Rangers tacked on a few more runs. He threw a lot of pitches but they weren’t exactly high-stress, and what do they care about future injuries?

http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee

Again, Feliz was warming up to come into the next inning when it looked like it was time to get ready to come in. Not as a piggyback, those usually get started later. I assume any dugout congratulations were more like a “well the game’s wrapped up now since David Robertson just gave up a zillion runs” thing, don’t you?

When you push a guy to a very high pitchcount you aren’t impacting just his future pitching in a year, you’re taking a significant risk with the next game that he pitches in. Which would be an important game for Texas.

dan genovese

jesus could not save us against this guy………….!

Mister Delaware

I didn’t mind the decision at the time so I won’t 2nd guess now. Hamilton is super splitty (.401/.447/.716 vs. RHP, .271/.331/.458 vs. LHP) and D-Rob did his job with bad luck. Grounder, grounder, K, IBB, grounder. Sometimes shit happens.

Mike HC

Mo looks at split stats and just laughs. I really hope Girardi didn’t think Logan had just as good a chance at getting Hamilton out as Mo did.

Slugger27

I really hope Girardi didn’t think Logan had just as good a chance at getting Hamilton out as Mo did.

this is insulting to both girardi and anyone reading your post. clearly, girardi knows his best chance to get an out is with mariano. but girardi also knows that that he plays the next 2 nights in a row without an offday and that burnett will start 1 of them

increasing the chances of a scoreless inning by a few percentage points is not worth hindering mo’s availability in the next 2 nights.

again, if its 0-0, its different, but it wasnt.

Mike HC

Really? What I wrote was insulting to Girardi and everyone who read the post? ahhaha you guys must be super sensitive.

Slugger27

i clearly wasnt being 100% serious, as i know that you know girardi doesnt think logan is a better chance at an out than mariano.

but saying it even in jest is just a senseless shot at girardi… for something he doesn’t even deserve to be criticized for in the first place

Mike HC

I just said “I hoped” he didn’t think that. I assume Girardi just wanted to save him, not because he thought he had better options.

Mister Delaware

Its also possible the extra runs, while infuriating at the time, benefitted us in the long run since Feliz came in for 20 pitches he never should have thrown. 2 more games within 48 hours so it was a free look and had to take a little juice out of him.

Mike HC

Agreed completely. I don’t know what Girardi was saving Mo for? We couldn’t score a fucking run anyway, but at least give us shot by keeping us at two runs.

mike

I didnt have an issue with it at the time – Logan has been great, Hamilton doesnt hit LHP as well as RHP, and if you are going to carry Logan, this is the best time to use him.

I could agree with bringing Rivera in after Logan, but Robertson has been pitching well too, and i was figuring Mo would get a ton of work in this series anyway so we better keep the gun loaded.

My issue with Rivera being the best pitcher would then be why wasn’t he brought in the 8th inning, where it would be critical to keep the game close so the Yanks would have 2 innings to catch up – Lee threw a bunch of pitches by then etc. Rivera is always the best option, and I could argue using him in the 8th with 6 outs for the Yanks to catch up is even more important than letting him throw 20 pitches in the 9th of a game where the Yanks only have 3 outs to play with.

mike c (LETS GO YANK KEEEZ)

well why doesn’t mo just pitch the whole game then?

mike

:)

Gonzo

Considering how good the BP was going into last night. I am not sore about Mo not pitching. Texas had a couple good games against Month too. When Month comes into the 8th fresh, you’ll all be happy.

Gonzo

Mo not Month. Damn auto-complete on my BB!

http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

That is the single most annoying thing about a Blackberry. That and that hr becomes hour when I mean it to be home run.

A.D.

They’re playing three straight games (now two left) in which they may need Mo to protect a lead and for more than 1 inning, and there’s no real reason to believe the Yankees would have scored 2 runs in the 9th regardless of the score

Yes yesterday’s 9th was disaster, however it was on a couple of the better bullpen arms, not that he put Mitre in there, and I’d prefer to have Mo fully rested for the next two games, then have pitched an inning in a loss yesterday.

Mike HC

Mo can pitch three days in a row, even if he has to go multiple innings. And why save him for situations that may never come up. And not sure why you would be willing to assume we can’t get two in the ninth. One baserunner and one mistake pitch is all we needed.

AndrewYF

“Mo can pitch three days in a row, even if he has to go multiple innings.”

Completely false.

Mike HC

Its not false. You should brush up on your history. I’m not saying he should go multiple innings each time. But if he has to go multiple for one of the outings, he will be fine. And again, I wouldn’t assume he will have to pitch the next two games. You have no idea how they are going to play out. Lets use Mo when we need him, which was in that 9th inning.

AndrewYF

You mean my history where Rivera was 30?

Just stop talking. Girardi WON’T use Rivera for multiple innings three days in a row. It doesn’t matter one bit what you think Rivera can do, Girardi knows infinitely more than you or I do. His reasoning for not using Rivera when THE YANKEES WERE LOSING ANYWAY was that it would prevent him from using Rivera for multiple innings (which, if the Yankees are winning, will likely need to happen) for the next two days. That’s completely justifiable.

The arm-chair managing is getting really, really old. None of us have any idea what any player is capable of. Least of all, apparently, you. At least I can listen to people who know what they’re talking about and take my facts from them instead of making them up to fulfill my fantasy of making people think I’m smarter than an effective major league manager.

Mike HC

First of all, I don’t mean to get under your skin. I know it is tense for all of us and don’t want to be down 2-1.

Second of all, using Mo in that situation is quite reasonable. Just because Girardi did not do it, does not make it an unquestionably incorrect move.

Third, you keep bringing up this multiple inning thing, but he would only have went one inning. If you choose not to use Mo in a winnable game today, in order to save him for the next two games of the series, you can expect to be second guessed. Saving Mo for situations that may never come up is at least a debatable decision.

AndrewYF

I keep bringing up the multiple inning thing because Rivera might need to go multiple innings the next two days. Had he pitched last night, he wouldn’t be able to go multiple innings each of the next two days. Straight from the manager’s mouth, man.

Also, winnable game? According to FG, the Yankees’ win expectancy heading into the top of the 9th was 8.3%. I’ve said it somewhere else, but expecting the Yankees to score 2 runs off one of the best closers in the game this year is really stretching it. There is absolutely no reason to fault Girardi for not bringing in his 40-year old closer into a losing affair. Sorry, but this one’s on the players.

Mike HC

I am in complete agreement the game is on the players.

To me, the idea that you are saving Mo for two multiple inning appearances the next two days seems like a reach, but believe me, I surely hopes it pays off.

And the Yanks traded that 8.3% (lets call it 10% chance because I feel ridiculous being so accurate for something immeasurable) for an opportunity that may never come. That is where the debate comes in. But I do see your point that getting two off Lee or Feliz is not exactly a winning proposition anyway.

Gonzo

I agree. It wasn’t a 6-8 game. It was a 0-2 game with Lee or Feliz pitching the 9th.

mike c (LETS GO YANK KEEEZ)

i concur

http://twitter.com/#!/iiKeane JobaWockeeZ

He’s never done that this year. Mo only pitched back to back days 11 times and never went three times.

Mike HC

My memory extends beyond this year.

Anyway, Mo can clearly go three days in a row for one inning each. Your guys big concern comes in if you want to use him for multiple innings. So, you wanted to hold him out of an important game last night, only down two, just case we may need him for multiple innings one day, and also at least an inning the next. That is a lot of projection when we knew for a fact we could have used him last night.

AndrewYF

“My memory extends beyond this year.”

Hey, I have an awesome idea: let’s sign Randy Johnson. I mean, look what he did back in 2001! What a great asset he would be. What, you mean he didn’t pitch this year? Shit man, my memory extends BEYOND this year.

/Mike HC’d

Mike HC

hahah

Come on. Mo is pitching better than he ever did at this age. Don’t put him in the retirement home just because of a number.

http://twitter.com/#!/iiKeane JobaWockeeZ

That doens’t mean he can pitch every day.

Mike HC

I don’t want him to. I wanted to pitch him last night, and then see what plays out over the next two days. Girardi decided to sit him out last night under the assumption he will want to use Mo for like 4 innings the next two days. I hope Girardi ends up right, because me being right does not help me at all.

Mister Delaware

“Come on. Mo is pitching better than he ever did at this age.”

Eh. His results are as good as ever but he’s not pitching as well as ever. His K% for the last 3 seasons goes 29.7%, 28.0%, 19.6%. Effective Dominant.

Mister Delaware

(Apparently it doesn’t allow for the not-equal sign. Was supposed to say Effective (does not equal) Dominant.)

Gonzo

The last time Mo pitched multiple innings and then the next day, he got blown up by these same Rangers.

Mike HC

First of all, Mo would only have went one inning, the ninth. And if he had to go more, that means the Yanks tied the game, which means the move worked.

Two, good luck making decisions based on like a 3 inning, two day sample size.

Gonzo

Ok use Month for one inning in a losing game. That means he probably can’t effectively pitch more than one inning tomorrow and in game 5. All that to pitch Month in a loss.

Slugger27

if you replace this “Month” pitcher with “Mo”, then i fully agree with your post

unless you actually werent being sarcastic

Gonzo

Damn auto-fill on my Blackberry.

Gonzo

Mo hasn’t gone out for a 3 inning save all year, but that means the data is insufficient to go against it! Yay! Mo for 3 innings all day, everyday! Yay! Maybe it only happened once because they know he isn’t capable of it.

Mike HC

Huh? I’m not even sure what you are getting at here.

Are you saying that If Mo went multiple innings last night, you would expect him to get bombed tonight?

Gonzo

You said I was basing too much on a 2 day 3 inning sample size.

Mike HC

OK. So you are saying that sample size is enough to form an opinion on. So again, if Mo went two innings last night, you would expect him to get bombed tonight if he pitched?

Lets have a standing bet. The next time Mo pitches multiple innings, and if he pitches the next day/night, I predict he pitches a scoreless inning, and you, what, that he gets bombed, one run, whatever you want? How much do you want to wager?

Gonzo

A) You act as if everyone knew Logan and D-Rob were gonna get mauled. The Yankees actually had a decent % of keeping the Rangers off the board. It didn’t happen.

B) What are you basing your opinion on? Gut feeling?

I am not saying it’s a forgone conclusion that he gets bombed (your word, not mine). I am saying the probability of him getting touched up rises.

Think about this, how come Mo only did it once all year? If it was such an easy thing for him, why did they only do it once all year? And in that one time, he got touched up by these same Rangers.

Mike HC

Mo only did it once all year so he can do it with no reservations in the playoffs. We were saving bullets and keeping our guys rested in the regular season precisely so we can start using them heavily in the playoffs. Which apparently according to Andrew, Girardi not only plans to use Mo the day after a multi inning performance, but plans to use him for two multi inning performances back to back if necessary.

And sorry, you didn’t say “bombed,” you said “blown up.” My mistake.

Gonzo

Of course Girardi has to use Mo like that in the playoffs. He would get killed if he didn’t. My point is that he didn’t need to use him last night for that same reason. And it doesn’t mean that his probability of getting touched up doesn’t rise. Why use Mo in a game with a low probality of winning when you have to use him in the tougher multiple inning situations.

The point you are missing is that the substitutes had a decent enough of chance of keeping them off the board, it just didn’t happen.

I said he got blown up, not that he would get blown up in the same situation moving forward.

You are now in the not making sense zone. I am done with you. You are basing all your opinions on your gut, which I am sure is very wise, but I’ll go with reason and logic.

Mike HC

I’m the one not making sense? I think you should re read our conversation.

And you are missing that if the substitutes had a decent chance of keeping them off the board last night, then they would have just as good a chance at keeping them off the board if Mo was unavailable for game 5. It cuts both ways. Except I know for a fact that Mo would have came in handy last night, and who knows whether we will even need him in Game 5.

Gonzo

Coming in handy for a loss is always nice.

Mike HC

You are right. Why would I think it is possible for the Yanks to score two runs in the ninth? Silly me.

You know what, we should have just forfeited this game because everyone knows it is impossible to score a run off Lee and saved Andy for Game 4 (this way AJ does not have to pitch). Or maybe we should have pitched Mitre all game just to make sure we have all our pitchers ready for the more important games down the line.

Genius.

Gonzo

Bottom line:
I would rather have Mo at or close to 100% in game 4 and 5 than have him pitch down 2-0 with Lee or Feliz in the bottome of the 9th.

You would rather have Mo less than 100% in game 4 and 5 so that he can pitch in a game down 2-0 with Lee or Feliz in the bottome of the 9th.

There we agree to disagree. I think I am right, and you think you are right.

Mike HC

Now there is something I can agree with.

A.D.

I’m willing to assume that they wouldn’t get 2 in the 9th, because it was a statistically unlikely scenario.

Mo could pitch 3 days in a row, this is true, however it would be far from preferred, and personally I’d rather lose & not use Mo than lose & use Mo, especially with two games & 0 off days on the horizon.

Mike HC

I guess I was not willing to assume we would not score two in the ninth.

Big Stein

FIRE GIRARDI!

/no maas’d with a touch of Subway Ben

AndrewYF

If it prevents you from using Mo for multiple innings the next two games, it’s absolutely the right move. It wasn’t like he was bringing in Scott Erickson, he was bringing in reliable relievers who had done the job all year. They didn’t pitch well. It would have been about a thousand times worse had he brought in Mo and had to take him out because of some bleeders through the holes. I’m very glad he didn’t bring in Rivera, especially given his numbers when not pitching in save situations. It would have been a waste of resources.

I wonder if the same people who faulted Girardi for pitching Rivera for more than one inning in Texas earlier in September are faulting him now for not pitching him when the Yankees are losing.

One of my least-favorite themes this season are the Girardi blame-train. Sometimes, the players fail and it’s no one’s fault but their own. Hard to admit, I know, but let’s not become Red Sox fans here.

mike

undrestand ( and mostly agree with) your point, as Id much rather have a manager using numbers/stats – along with the insider knowledge of his team/injuries/industry gossip – to manage than a gut-call guy like Ozzie which would make your head explode on a daily basis.

even so, we all know the manager’s impact is really limited anyway, so while i like to manage along with the team, if Tex or Jeter actually had a few productive at-bats we might not be having this conversation

Gonzo

I actually think Ozzie is a good manager. A lot gets lost in his craziness, but he makes a lot of good decisions.

RCK

I have to admit that at the time I was all for Robertson. I had visions of tying it up in the bottom of the 9th and Mo coming on for the 10th and possibly 11th.

But Ben is right that a hypothetical inning is not as important as the actual inning that is definitely happening.

AndrewYF

Except that for the next two days, those ‘hypothetical innings’ are 100% guaranteed to happen. I’ll take my chances that the Yankees are going to be winning those innings, rather than burning Rivera in a game where the Yankees are losing, and getting shut out, and about to face one of the more effective closers in the game.

Feliz is touchable, I guess, but he was still fantastic this year. 2.3 BB/9, 9.2 K/9. Sorry, but I don’t like the Yankees’ chances against him any more than their chances against Lee. He’s not exactly Papelbon.

Mike HC

I think Lee was actually going to come back in the game if it was close. They only used Feliz when it got out of hand. Although I’m not sure.

Ted Nelson

Yeah, Feliz wasn’t warming up so it’s hard to say he was coming into the game any time too soon. Unless he’s known for only taking a few warm-up pitches or something.

Ben’s argument also revolves around a hypothetical situation where the Yankees score 2 or more runs in the 9th. Since they didn’t score any runs all game, they have to win 1 of the next 2 and 3 of the next 4 to stay alive. That’s no longer hypothetical. I can see the argument for Rivera to keep the game close, but I can’t see presenting it as the obvious and only decision.

Mike HC

I agree. I don’t think either decision is obvious, which makes it “a decision.” I personally would have went with Mo and worried about tomorrow, tomorrow.

larryf

Chalupa fail…..

Adam

I don’t have a problem with Joe showing faith in Logan and D-Rob to put up a zero, they have earned it. They just didn’t get it done. If he brought Mo in I would have understood, but it also could have potentially been problematic with two more games coming up back-to-back. It just comes down to execution, Girardi did put the team in a position to succeed which is what ultimately his job is.

Big Stein

before we lynch Girardi:

Yankee Batting through three games

Teixeria .000

ARod .154

Swish .091

Posada .200

Grandy .125

Gardy .250

Jeter .231

That’s right, Tex, our number #3 hitter, is 0 for 11.

Meanwhile, the heroin addict is batting .300 with 2HRs and 5RBIs.

Look, let’s face it, being off for SIX days between the end of the ALDS and the start of the ALCS really screwed up their timing. And we’re not alone, it was clear that Halladay was affected by his long layoff, tossing a no-hitter one night, then giving up 4 runs to the anemic gigantes the next start.

larryf

Don’t worry. Damon and Matsui will save us. Those avg’s are very similar to last year.

Slugger27

ben, i find it ironic you mention the yankees being outmanaged this series in an article about mo not coming in during a 2-run deficit

washington NEVER THREW feliz in game 1 when they had a lead that continued to dwindle with every passing hitter

….?

Fair Weather Freddy

Will everybody stop with the ‘Fire Girardi’ BS. Is it his fault that Texiera, Arod, Jeter are not hitting? Doesn’t matter who pitches. If they don’t score, they can’t win.

Thomas

Ben never said “Fire Girardi”, he said Girardi made the wrong call. Those are two different things.

Frank

I don’t have a problem with Joe bringing in Logan/D-Rob. They just didn’t get it done. It happens. I’m more disappointed because I was really looking forward to Lee coming out for the 9th to protect a 2-0 lead. He pitched an absolutely beautiful game and deserves all the credit.

Gonzo

It’s a shame that the Yankees will have to pay through the nose to acquire him. I think the Nats suggested that they might go 5/125. Wowsers.

Slugger27

the 2-0 lead might as well have been the 8-0 lead it turned into

Al Yankovich

The best Joe Torre performance by Girardi this post season. Must be resting Mo to close out AJ’s game tonight. haha, hahaha.

Slugger27

Must be resting Mo to close out AJ’s game tonight

that’s exactly what he was doing….

????

what’s so hilarious?

Al Yankovich

You are joking, right? Mo threw 14 pitches on Friday. I know he is 40, but how much rest does the dude need in the playoffs?

Slugger27

they play 3 days in a row, with aj throwing the middle game.

you’re in favor of hindering mo’s availability the next 2 games to increase the chance of a scoreless 9th from 80% to 90%??

like i said earlier, that 2-0 lead may as well have been 10… id rather have mo available for 4 outs in each of the next 2 games than increase the odds of the deficit staying at 2 by a few percentage points.

Al Yankovich

I guess the argument is, do we value “here and now” or do we put value on “maybe”. Last night, the Ynkees were down 2 runs. Given that they had only an 8.5% chance to win against the best pitcher in baseball (looked like Lee was clearly coming back out), the chance was still there. 2 runs is not impossible to come back from. Mo would give the team the best chance to do so. Mo hasnt pitched in days. Last night was a tangible oppportunity, today’s assumptions that Aj is going to hand the 8.5% chance of winning to Mo is just that, an assumption. There was no doubt in my mind that Mo was coming out for the 9th after Wood pitched the 8th. We can agree to disagree, but I am on board with Mike and his reasoning. Girardi should have gone to Mo. It was a 2 run game, at the Stadium with the big sticks coming up to see Lee for the 4th time around.

Slugger27

you’re right, we will agree to disagree.

Ted Nelson

You realize that the Yankees have a 50% chance of winning each of the next two games and that 50% is almost 6 times higher than 8.5%, right? If you’re going to use statistics to “prove” your point, try to be rational about it.

I was so pissed when the Yankees scored 2 runs in the 9th but didn’t tie the game because Logertson had blown it… oh, wait… that never happened.

Al Yankovich

So, what you are saying, is that once AJ gives up a few runs, and the chance to win is 20%, which is less than 50%, then Mo should stay in the pen untill the next day?

Ted Nelson

What I am saying is that there is theoretically a 50% chance the Yankees win each of the next 2 games. When you site a meager 8% chance of winning a game as a reason to burn your closer when you have 50% chances the next two days… that’s not a good argument statistically. Your argument is simply that Girardi should have gone all-in last night even if his hand wasn’t great (I’m not saying that’s wrong, though I also wouldn’t say it is necessarily right). Listing an 8% chance of winning vs. two 50% chances does not support your argument.

Ted Nelson

You also realize that Texas is scheduled to start Tommy Hunter in Game 4, right? He’s not Cliff Lee. Burnett could conceivably give up a bunch of runs and still win the game or keep the Yankees in it. The Yankees offense is due to produce at some point… chances are very good that they come around at some point.

Al Yankovich

“The Yankees offense is due to produce at some point… chances are very good that they come around at some point.”
Why would that point not be in last night’s 9th inning?

“Listing an 8% chance of winning vs. two 50% chances does not support your argument.”
50% becomes 10% again,(lets say Texas is up 2 runs tonight), you keep Mo in again? According to your theory, there are 3 other games with a 50% chance.

“When you site a meager 8% chance of winning a game as a reason to burn your closer”
8% is still a chance to win! How do we know that in tonight’s and tomorrow’s game in the 9th the chance wont be 1%? Wouldnt the 8% seem so much better then? And its not like Mo is overused, he certainly is not getting burnt out with an inning of work.

Ted Nelson

“Why would that point not be in last night’s 9th inning?”

Ask the guys who were up… I have no idea. It wasn’t though, because they scored zero runs. Without hindsight, you like your chances of scoring against Tommy Hunter and the middle relief over 8 or 9 innings and CJ Wilson and middle relief over 9 innings better than Cliff Lee or Neftali Feliz over 1 inning.

You do realize that there are 3 games in a row with the 3rd being a day game after a night game, right? You also realize that Girardi may have been saving Mo for the 10th ***IF*** the Yankees managed to tie the game. Ben’s rant pretty summarily ignores that the Yankees might score 2 runs instead of 3 or more…

“According to your theory, there are 3 other games with a 50% chance.”

And a day of rest in between.

“8% is still a chance to win!”

You always have a chance to win in poker as well, but most successful players at a high level will fold even a decent hand.

“How do we know that in tonight’s and tomorrow’s game in the 9th the chance wont be 1%?”

We don’t know. If they are… the Yankees are out of the series. Using Mo to ***hopefully*** (because even Mo might give up a run or two or more…) keep it a 2-0 game (that evidence from the 9th inning suggests the Yankees would have lost anyway) would not change that fact. They’d lose the series anyway and everyone making a mountain out of a molehill would realize it’s not that big a deal.

” And its not like Mo is overused, he certainly is not getting burnt out with an inning of work.”

Again: 3 games, 3 days, day after night… Even for a young pitcher that’s not something you’re going to ask him to do, for an old one… forget it.

Al Yankovich

And please do not act like Yankees offense is guaranteed to kill it tonight just because Tommy Hunter is on the bump.

Ted Nelson

If they can’t win any more games it doesn’t really matter that they lost game 3…

Slugger27

agreed, 100%

fangraphs DID give us 8.3%, but considering lee, that was generous

the top of the 9th was pretty low-leverage; the game was over.

Al Yankovich

But seeing Lee for the 4th time around being down 2 with the top of the order coming up is not impossible. What was the chance to win on Friday in the 8th?

Ted Nelson

50/50 That’s not rocket science.

Mike HC

But considering the Yanks line up, the Yanks should be considered to have a better chance at coming back than generic percentages.

Ted Nelson

But considering Cliff Lee and Neftali Feliz… Unless you have some statistical proof let’s stick with fangraphs and not speculate aimlessly.

Mike HC

Why would I just assume fangraph’s number is right? You can blindly follow estimated, generic, percentages all you want, but I choose not to. I would prefer to use the specific information I have at hand, like where the game is played (short home run fence in right), who is coming up (Jeter, Swish, Tex, ARod, Cano), who is pitching (Lee after throwing 120 pitches or the young, inexperienced Feliz).

It does not take a calculator to figure out the game was not looking good. But it also does not take a calculator to figure out that with Jeter, Swish, Tex, Arod, and Cano coming up, scoring two runs is well within reach.

If you wanted to assume the game was over, that is your prerogative. I thought we had a good enough chance to come back that using Mo was the right decision.

Ted Nelson

I’m not saying to assume it’s right, I’m saying not to blindly speculate on whether or not it’s right without any work behind your speculation. You say Yankees offense, I say Lee/Feliz… who is right? See the problem with just assuming the Yankees offense gives them a higher than 8.3% chance?

I never said the game was over. What I would say is that you also have to consider the ramifications of a decision and not just go all-in on every single hand. If you’ve got an 8.3% chance of winning a poker hand but have a feeling you can bluff the other players at the table–even though they are world class players–and that improves your odds an amount you are not even going to try to quantify… do you go all-in? In this case the money you are risking is replaced by the opportunity cost of having Mo pitch games 4 and 5.

Mike HC

I get your strategy. And Girardi’s. I just disagree.

And in cards, I do “blindly” trust the percentages, because they are unarguably accurate.

Things are not that easy in baseball.

Mike HC

As hard as it is to believe, subjective opinion does come into play when making baseball decisions. Ignoring those subjective opinions because they can’t be quantified is foolish. In my opinion.

And I’m sure subjective opinion goes into those Fangraph percentages as well.

Ted Nelson

Obviously a manager has to come down to his subjective opinion when making certain decisions… his gut. Even if all the percentages are in your favor you can still be wrong and ultimately that’s on you and your livelihood depends on these decisions.

In this case while Girardi’s gut (or statistical analysis) about Logan and Robertson was wrong, perhaps his gut about not using Mo was right. They had a somewhat low chance of winning and guess what… they didn’t score a single run in the 9th. As manager you could have gone with your gut and guess what… you would have been wrong because the Yankees didn’t score in the bottom of the 9th. So, you would have made your preferred move, burned Mo for either game 4 or 5, and the Yankees still would have lost. This decision turned out to be inconsequential once the Yankees didn’t do anything in the bottom of the inning, which is why it bugs me that Ben would make such an impassioned post about it.

“And in cards, I do “blindly” trust the percentages, because they are unarguably accurate.”

Even with the % in your favor you can still lose in cards. You can have an amazing hand, and the person next to you can have an even better one. A lot like baseball… In cards (poker) it is still a subjective decision whether to play a hand or fold/continue or fold/go all in or not (you know the %, but not the other players hands… just like a manager can play the % but not know how various players will perform in situations, some of which he can’t possibly foresee… I mean, tangent but Robertson got a bunch of grounders that just weren’t hit at people and Jeter couldn’t field the one hit right at him…), which is why I don’t get what you’re talking about…

vin

Meh, I don’t have a problem showing faith in guys like Logan and Robertson. Ordinarily I agree with using Mo in every close game, but Logan and Robertson have been getting it done the last 4+ months.

I was fine with the decision either way.

Instead of skewering Girardi for a coin-flip decision, we should be praising Pettitte for keeping them in the game. Hopefully AJ can execute as well as Andy.

vin

Also, in ’03, Torre brought in Weaver ahead of Mo and Hammond (who was rested and would pitch 2 innings the next night). A similar scenario to the ’10 team would be if everyone was used except Mo, Logan and Mitre – with Mitre coming in ahead of them.

http://unclemikesmusings.blogspot.com Uncle Mike

Sounds like Joe Girardi had a Little problem last night. A Grady Little problem. Except he DIDN’T let his starter pitch into the 8th, as he should have; and, having made that mistake, didn’t bring his close in for the 9th. Now, I’m not saying Joe’s job is on the line as a result, but this was bonehead pitching selection. Enough of this stupid lefty-lefty, righty-righty matchup stuff: You go with the best you got. And, last night, that wasn’t Boone Logan or David Robertson. Besides, both Pettitte and Wood were pitching fine. If a guy’s still effective, leave him in! They are men, not mice!

Ted Nelson

“If a guy’s still effective, leave him in!”

Great… just leav’em all in until they give up several runs! Don’t be preemptive, wait until they’ve screwed you and you’ve screwed their arms to take them out of the game!

Seriously, how do you know Pettitte would have shut them down in the 8th? Would you rather Wood kept you in a game or be available for one of the next two, critical, games?

Calling this boneheaded is ridiculous. I’m tired of all this second guessing every time a decision backfires.

Slugger27

oaktag.

Steve

Had to use Mo last night. If you want to use the excuse that there are games three days in a row, then why pitch Kerry Wood? Girardi used the bullpen backwards last night – he pitched his 2nd best reliever and then went to his 3rd and 4th. If he never intended to use Mo, then why not Robertson in the 8th?

Had to keep that game close. Lee was coming out for the 9th but if anyone got on, he was done and Feliz has to pitch with the tying runner at the plate.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net Brien Jackson

I love how people base their opinions on the notion that Rivera will obviously have to pitch multiple innings in the next 2 games, or that he can’t pitch 3 days in a row.

Mister Delaware

Cost-benefit. Mariano was our best option in the 9th, but he was also the best option in the 8th and no one cared because Wood was successful. Where do you draw the line on bringing him into a statistical longshot? (And, again, Robertson wasn’t bad.)

Slugger27

agree 100%

if logan/robertson do the job, then girardi is praised for saving his bullets

Thomas

Wood was our second best option. People wanted to pitch Wood and Rivera in the 8th and 9th, because they gave us the best chance of keeping the score at 2-0. You pitch Wood in the eight, because you want Rivera to pitch the ninth if they scored in the bottom of the 8th for the save (not that saves are really important).

http://itsaboutthemoney.net Brien Jackson

Well, you’re missing a fairly important variable: which of the other team’s hitters are due up. It would be a different matter if the bottom of the Texas lineup was coming up, but as it was, they were sending up they’re 3 best hitters. That should change your calculus a bit.

http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

I think Tango makes a decent case here that this isn’t as clear-cut an issue as we thought.

if we were off tomorrow, sure, you pitch mo. but that was never the case

http://itsaboutthemoney.net Brien Jackson

I’m not getting this at all. The Yankees had 5 days off between the ALDS and ALCS, and then Mo didn’t pitch game 2, and had an off day on Sunday. That’s 7 days off in 8 days. There’s as good a chance as any that he isn’t needed in game 4 or game 5, and then there’s an off day on Thursday. SO even if he does pitch each game, at most you’re talking about pitching 4 times in 9 days. In the playoffs.

And again, I seriously doubt anyone thinks Mo wouldn’t pitch every game if there was a save situation in the 9th.

Al Yankovich

Amen

Mike HC

I’m with you too Brien.

Ted Nelson

Since Joe Girardi actually knows Mariano Rivera personally and has the ability to talk to him and observe him every day, perhaps he is better suited to make decisions on his ability to pitch 3 days in a row than you… Perhaps…

I mean you may well be right. But you also may be wrong. And guess what… the Yankees did give up 6 runs and didn’t score 2 runs in the 9th so this has become 100% irrelevant. Now they ARE down 2-1 and they DO have a rested Mo. Let’s just move on.

Thomas

However, here is the problem with the “Rivera didn’t pitched 3 games in a row in 2010″ argument, he never/rarely had the chance. The Yankees (like all teams) pretty much only used Rivera in a save situation (or to keep him fresh if he hasn’t pitched in a while). Only once did the Yankees have 3 saves in a row and Rivera got none of them (must have been sick/hurt).

In the regular season you just don’t use a reliever three days in a row unless it is a dire situation (September baseball) or the manager has burned through the other relievers. The reason you do this is to keep him effective, keep him healthy, and because a win or loss in either direction is unlikely to hurt you. In the playoffs it is different, there are plenty of off days (Rivera has thrown 1 inning since October 9th against the Twins) to keep him fresh and the importance of a win or loss is magnified by the short series.

mustang

Good point.

http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

Fair points, for sure. One thing I disagree with is I’ve seen a few people mention that Rivera has had plenty of rest, but I don’t think that necessarily affects whether they want to toss him out there on three consecutive days (with the third being a day game after a night game). Rivera’s health isn’t like a video game – it’s not a health-meter that’s filled really high just because he’s had rest the last couple of weeks. When it comes time for that third game in a row – the day game – it’s not going to matter that he had rest last week, all that’s going to matter is that he’s pitched two nights in a row and less than 24 hrs prior to that latest, third appearance.

Pretty minor nitpick, though.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net Brien Jackson

Fair enough. My point was just to illustrate that it’s not like he’s been pushed to his physical limits over the past couple of weeks.

http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

Oh I get the point, but I don’t think we can look backwards on that one particular issue. On that third day, the rest he got last week will be totally irrelevant, I think.

Doesn’t invalidate the larger points that one particular point is supporting, but I think that particular bit of support is irrelevant.

Ted Nelson

Good point. The 3rd day also has the potential to be an elimination game. Even if it’s “maybe he can pitch 3 days in a row and day after a night…” I’d probably rather not find out in the 9th inning of an elimination game. Last night may not have been the time to go all in.

Mike HC

I agree with you, although the video game comparison actually does work here. Mo’s health meter can only fill up to the max. It does not keep filling up past the max if he does not pitch. Meaning the first time he pitches with max health, whether he rested for one day, or one week, it will still decrease just the same.

http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

Ha, ok… So yeah, if the video game meter has a set-max that can’t be exceeded, then yeah… It’s like video game health. I can roll with that. But no mushrooms pop up out of random tubes sticking out of the brick walkway that, when touched by Mo, will allow him to exceed that set-limit and be super-Mo for a short period of time.

Mike HC

hahaha. I haven’t played video games in a about five years, so I’m really not sure what they are up to these days.

Mike HC

ha, I just skimmed that the first time.

As long as he remembers not to wait until the last instant to jump, he should be able to squash the Rangers heads just fine.

tc

Joe clearly knew we were not gonna score 2 or more runs, it was just plain. The Yankees hitters have allowed Lee to set up a nice den with a wide screen TV and a barcalounger in their heads. Meanwhile, you can see their hitters are relaxed and confident that they can always hit even our best pitchers.

Still, a win tonight evens it and a win tomorrow, with our #1 starter on the mound, would give us the edge going back to Texas.

Ted Nelson

It’s pretty easy to say you got “out managed” when you lose (though when your offense doesn’t score a run you might blame the hitters and not the meaningless pitching decisions). If Logan and Robertson hold this is a non-issue and the decision to hold back Mariano helps the Yankees either in this game (if they tie and bring him into the 10th) or potentially in the next 2… If the Yankees managed to score 1 let alone 2 runs in the 9th… Ok, get angry about it. The Yankees didn’t score so it’s a complete non-issue whether they were down by 1 or 200000 runs. They’re down 2-1 either way and have to win 3 of the next 4.

Why not leave the second guessing, monday morning QB stuff to the mainstream media? You can say “I would have done things differently” but it’s hard to say “my way was right.” How about at least presenting the other side of the story instead of presenting irrelevant anecdotal evidence about one borderline HOF starter relieving a HOF starter in a do-or-die game 7 and comparing it to a game 2? If he overworks the bullpen and the Yankees still lose 5-2, you’re complaining about how pitcher x wasn’t available tonight because he pitched a meaningless inning. If he brings in Mo and the Yankees still lose 2-0 or worse… bringing him in turned out to be the wrong decision. If you don’t score a single run, it’s pretty tough to win a baseball game, so at this point I am more upset with the Yankees hitters than meaningless pitching moves that theoretically ***COULD HAVE*** hurt the team if their offense produced but ***IN REALITY*** meant absolutely nothing: they lost 7-2 instead of 5-2 and 8-0 instead of 2-0. Either way, they lost. Either way, their offense didn’t do squat.

And did you really compare Game 2 to Game 7? What was the point there?

Did you forget that he did pull his work-horse CC early when he didn’t have it and thereby put them in a position to steal a win in a game that looked hopeless? Was he out-managed there?

mustang

I’m not going to get into the whole ” leverage situations reliever thing”, but I do think Joe should of used Mo in the 9th to keep the game at 2-0. It’s the playoffs and Mo is not going to die pitching back-to-back games. I really wanted to see how young Neftali Feliz would of reacted at Yankee Stadium with a 2 run lead and the top of the Yankees batting order coming in the bottom of the 9th.

Mike HC

Yea, but too bad the Rangers were not anxious to see how Feliz would do. I’m pretty sure Lee was coming back in if the game stayed close. Once is got out of hand is when they decided to go to Feliz.

mustang

At 120 pitches? I doubt it. I was looking at the bullpen before the 6 runs and Feliz was warming up like a guy that was coming in. I was just hoping for it.

Mike HC

You could be right. I’m not sure. I still do assume Lee was coming back out, but who knows?

Ted Nelson

I wasn’t at the game and had a couple drinks by the 9th so maybe you are right, but I feel like they were showing Feliz on TV in his jacket watching the game throughout the 9th inning. At least I remember being surprised to see him in his jacket watching when it was still a tight game.

mustang

And Lee was throwing almost all fast-balls in the 8th it look like to me that he was emptying his tank.

Ted Nelson

“I really wanted to see how young Neftali Feliz would of reacted at Yankee Stadium with a 2 run lead and the top of the Yankees batting order coming in the bottom of the 9th.”

Since he wasn’t even beginning to warm up, I sort of doubt you would have gotten that chance last night… I mean if he’s going in you have the guy at least start stretching out: say the Rangers go down on 3 straight pitches once Robertson comes into the game… Feliz is no where near ready. If he was coming out I’m pretty confident he would have been up and throwing a baseball instead of sitting in his jacket watching the game.

“It’s the playoffs and Mo is not going to die pitching back-to-back games.”

How about back-to-back-to-back games with the 3rd one potentially being an elimination game? There’s a point where overconfidence and going 100% all-in every time can backfire. If the Yankees lost last night (clearly already in the books at this point), lose a close one tomorrow night where Mo pitches, and then are in a do-or-die late inning situation where they need Mo… We could have seen one of those situations. Even if the Yankees lose last night and then are in a sticky 8th inning situation tomorrow night where Girardi has to consider Mo… bringing him last night could have backfired.

A bit off topic for this comment, but… People who assume AJ Burnett means no Mo save situation, by the way, seem to forget that Tommy Hunter is not Cliff Lee. The Yankees have a good shot at hanging as many runs on him and the Texas middle relief as the Rangers do on AJ. Even if it’s a high scoring game, there can still be a high leverage situation late.

mustang

“Since he wasn’t even beginning to warm up, I sort of doubt you would have gotten that chance last night”

He was I was at the game last night.

mustang

“How about back-to-back-to-back games with the 3rd one potentially”

I doubt AJ, but CC can pitch a complete game. I’m sorry but Mo has barely pitched in the playoffs and all your asking for is one inning.

Ted Nelson

You really want Girardi to make his managing decisions that arbitrarily? Maybe in a game 5 elimination game CC will throw a no hitter and I won’t need my bullpen, maybe I will burn them all out and just ignore the very real possibility that he only pitches 4 innings like his last outing…

“I’m sorry but Mo has barely pitched in the playoffs and all your asking for is one inning.”

Girardi may ask for more than one inning and it’s 3 days in a row.

matthaggs

To me the Yanks had one shot to win that game, and it was in the bottom of the 9th against Lee with 130 plus pitch or Perez down 2. I think Girardi could have got there and still avoided using Mo had he used Robertson first, with Logan before Wood if necessary.

He should have used Robertson in front of Wood. Wood is the better pitcher, yet Girardi used him against inferior hitters to the ones Robertson faced.

I realize he was thinking/hoping the Yanks would go ahead or tie it in the bottom of the 8th, which would allow him to go straight to Mo, but with Lee coming back out against the bottom of the order in the 8th that wasn’t very realistic thinking.

mustang

I’m not one of these ” leverage situations” reliever guys, but if you take into account how rested Mo is from all the off days in the playoffs, Neftali Feliz inexperience especially at the stadium and the top of the order coming up i would took the chance.

Chris

We scored zero runs. Why are we complaining that we didn’t pitch Mo? I can understand if maybe we came close to scoring or actually were able to string a couple hits together off Cliff Lee then yeah maybe. Joe does a nice job with the bullpen. It seems like anytime there is a loss there is something to second guess. Its comical.

farentheight

But Mo is good enough to pitch in a run for us. I think.

Actually you’re right. Why think that he can keep us in a game we were never in.

Chris

So my point is, unless you want to bring Mo into pinch hit because nobody seems to be able to hit this series…then maybe that would be the move to make

tommydee2000

/strawmanned

Ed

I agree with Girardi’s call to take his chances with the rest of the pen instead of Mo. Lee was looking absolutely unhittable, and there are two more consecutive games coming up with no off day (the second even being a day game). It’s a simple calculation – what is more likely? That after Mo holds the 0-2 score then they get two in the Ninth off of Lee the way he was pitching, or that they need Mo twice in the next two days, once possibly for more than an inning? Coming back in that game was a huuuuge longshot. Now they have a fully rested Mo they can use for multiple innings if necessary in the next two games, which they have a much better chance at winning than they did last night in the one remaining inning. This is key because the next two games are basically must-wins given the team has to go back to Texas and Lee looms in a potential game seven. Mo didn’t pitch last night and Burnett might need to get yanked early tonight so good to know it is basically a 7-inning game if we need mo for two innings tonight and one more tomorrow.

farentheight

I think that flipping Andy and Phil will cost us the series. I think that Mo or no Mo was moot by the time Phil got the ball in Texas.

Ed

8.3% chance of winning down 2-0. Just sloppily using season ERA, there is an 80% chance that the score stays 2-0 with Mo and a 62% chance that the score stays 2-0 with a Logan/Robertson combo. By multiplying the chance of the game staying 2-0 by the chance of winning at that score, you could argue that using Mo gives you a 6.64% chance of coming back and winning and Logan/Robertson gives you a 5.15% chance. Not the cleanest math in the world but theoretically by using Mo you would increase the chance of winning this game by merely about 1.5%. I would rather have a fully rested Mo to use as needed for the next two games than increase the chance of a ninth inning comeback by a percent and a half, especially with a slumping offense looking clueless and the best pitcher in the league look relaxed and ready. Only would have used Mo if it was an elimination game – otherwise no reason to wear your closer for such a minimal impact.

Mister D

I’m not a fan of saves or closers – I believe in using your best pitchers in key situations. I say this only to show I was not adverse to bringing in Mo last night.

That said, given Mo’s age, that historically he doesn’t do as well when brought out in a non-save situation, that Lee was going to come out again if needed, and that even with Mo on the mound the odds were 20-1 against the Yanks making a comeback, I can’t fault Joe for not wanting to use Mo unless needed. Again this is a bullpen that has been flat out shutdown the second half of the season. Logan and DRob have generally been lights out, and 9 times out of 10, shut the Rangers down. The problem was not in Girardi’s decision, but the player’s execution. If he had brought out Mitre, that’d be another story.

Yank the Frank

Why would Logan be on the roster if not to pitch to Hamilton? It was the right move, it just didn’t work.

Lead Czar

Anyone thinking that Mo should have pitched with the score 2-0 against the Yankees, is an idiot. You don’t bring in your closer down in the 8th or 9th inning. Tell your mom you want “meatloaf”

http://logan'srun godfather

logan got a lot of big outs through the year; because he failed last night doesn’t mean girardi failed; logan and the rest of the bulls failed; it happens…and it has happened to mo, too; using him in that spot is moot…and he hasn’t been sharp for a month; if we’re playing the supposition game, i’ll offer this: why not ajb LAST NIGHT as the sacrificial lamb to lee? then it’d be andy tonight and cc tomorrow; as for the asinine comment on nyy not being able to muster a rally in the ninth because of “statistical improbability,” stuff it, einstein; saying that a few days after nyy got five in one inning is insipid; nothing’s over yet, not any more than the 3-0 lead meant it was over in ’04; baseball doesn’t behave the way we want it to much of the time; you can look it up…