Gerhard Schröder may feel obliged to hold—and may want—an election

THE ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens has encountered—and survived—so many hiccups in its three-year life that most Germans dismiss talk of a government crisis with yawns. This time, however, the crisis is real. A vote due to be taken in the lower house of parliament on November 16th could seal the fate of Gerhard Schröder's government. A variety of outcomes is possible. One is that Mr Schröder may feel obliged—or might actually contrive—to hold a snap general election, which by most people's reckoning he would probably win.

Exasperated by his Green partners' conscience-stricken hand-wringing over his efforts to put Germany back as a leading power (even a military one) on the world stage, the chancellor is to ask parliament for a combined vote of assent—both to let him send up to 3,900 German troops to help support America in its fight against terrorism, and at the same time to give his government a general vote of confidence. This is a big gamble, and only the fourth time since the second world war that a chancellor has taken one like it.

Mr Schröder tried hard at first to persuade the traditionally pacifist Greens to back the government's “unlimited solidarity” with the United States after September 11th, cajoling and threatening them but to no avail. Although the Greens' leaders were ready to send troops abroad, a hard core of their MPs and three-quarters of their supporters remained solidly opposed. Mr Schröder then changed his tune, saying it did not really matter if MPs from the parties in the ruling coalition were unable on their own to guarantee the government its majority, as long as parliament as a whole gave it the nod. Since the main opposition parties had said they would support the mobilisation of German troops, that looked assured. Mr Schröder's government would then have got its way, as it had over sending troops to Macedonia this summer, despite the rebellion of 19 Social Democratic and five Green deputies.

But peacekeeping in the Balkans is one thing, assisting the fight against those who have, in Mr Schröder's words, declared “war against the whole of civilisation”, is quite another. Just when the German public's support for the war in Afghanistan is beginning to falter, Mr Schröder considers it vital that the government is seen to stand tall. Moreover, he is determined to bring about what he calls a “fundamental change” in Germany's foreign policy. The days when Europe's economic giant could sit timidly on the sidelines, declining (as in the Gulf war) to go to war abroad, are, he said recently, “irrevocably gone”.

When it became clear earlier this week that the government would not be able to muster a comfortable majority from its own ranks, Mr Schröder decided to change tack yet again and go for broke. The opposition has already said it will vote against the confidence motion. If just eight Green and Social Democratic MPs vote against the government, it will be defeated.

Then what? Mr Schröder would have several choices. He could stumble on with his present partners. He could drop the Greens and govern as a minority. He could try to build a new alliance with the Free Democrats (liberals) or to form a “grand coalition” with the Christian Democrats, though neither party sounds keen. Or he could—in a most unusual step—ask President Johannes Rau to dissolve parliament and call a general election.

Too much greenery-yallery

The anti-war rebels may yet toe Mr Schröder's line. But there are signs that he may actually want to lose the vote of confidence. Although the Greens have on the whole been loyal partners and—in some voters' eyes—a good anchor on the left as the government has veered to the right, Mr Schröder has become frustrated by their trickiness in foreign and security matters.

Besides, holding a snap election, rather than waiting for next autumn when one is officially due, might be tactically astute. Mr Schröder has rarely been so popular. The opposition is rowing over who should lead it into the next election; it is quite unready for an immediate one. And, though the economy is in decline, most voters have yet to feel the pinch. By next autumn, things could be a lot worse. A quick vote might suit Mr Schröder just fine.