Ready, Set, Fire, Aim

With only a few days left before President-elect Trump becomes President Trump, the feeling is like the calm before the storm. On Friday, January 20th, 2017, the Republican Party gets a full house and a friendly President to boot. The GOP wish is to undo the last 8 years and make the future like the past, the distant past. The public has been advised “to fasten their seat belts” and watch our elected leaders make things happen beginning on the very first day.

Hmmm.

We can remove some mystery about any consequences from GOP actions. There will be massive reductions in taxes paid by the top 1%. Even the irresponsible repeal of Obamacare is at its core a tax cut for the wealthy.

Corporate tax rate reduction unless accompanied with elimination of business tax deductions, exemptions, and loopholes will accrue more money for the wealthy. And eliminating the myriad of regulations which we are told are hamstringing our economy, will put even more money in the wealthiest’s pockets.

So for at least some Americans, January 20th should be a red letter day.

Every action has a reaction too. Repeal of Obamacare will immediately beg the question what happens to those insured by the Affordable Care Act? The GOP will attempt to keep enough of current Obamacare recipients covered that they can look the camera in the eye and say, “see we replace Obamacare with patient centered, not Washington centered healthcare”.

But two facts will emerge. (1) The GOP will have to find money to cover whatever parts of the ACA it puts forward as “patient centered care” and will most likely hide their healthcare subsidies. With no new taxes, the healthcare costs will go straight to the national debt. The GOP will adamantly deny this with a look of sincerity.

And, (2) The number of people covered will shrink as will the quality of their coverage. The “free” market will offer reduced coverage to those unable to pay the going price for standard coverage. Those impacted the most will be the most vulnerable and, not surprisingly, those least able to garner public sympathy.

This is a pretty sad commentary on the Grand Old Party.

But there’s more. IMO, Trump will support juicing the economy with tax cuts and government spending so that his prediction of greater economic growth can materialize. Trump, however, will run into opposition from fiscal conservatives who want to see the debt decreased, not increased. Trump, the deal maker, will step forward offering to trade his support for much of the GOP agenda, despite his own preferences, in return for support of new spending. You scratch my back, I will scratch yours. Hmmm.

With “Ready, Set, Fire, Aim”, Republicans will run unnecessary risks. Unintended consequences and collateral damage are almost assured with current GOP plans. As the first 100 days domestic casualties begin to mount up, voters view of President Trump will become tarnished. At that point, President Trump will make sure everyone knows he favored this or that, and instead those in Congress, much over rated, all talk and no action did not follow his advise and are to blame. Hmmm.

Most of the Republican game plan will hurt small groups… initially. For example, the 20 million ACA subscribers pale in comparison to the greater 340 million US population. Increasing the Federal Debt won’t impact anyone at first. The subsequent risk, however, is the building pressure to reduce other Government spending… like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and a myriad of social safety network programs. And as these messy regulations are revoked, freeing up America’s great capitalist engine and creating jobs on every corner, conditions for another financial meltdown, run away inflation, and renewed disillusionment with Washington will gratuitously appear.

President Trump has an initial White House lease for 1461 days. It would be a shame for the Trump Administration to let hubris in the first 100 days help destroy the next 1361.