WASHINGTON  Get out your countdown calendars, because this Saturday we hit the six-month mark before the opening-bell Iowa caucuses Jan. 19. Until now, the race for the 2004 Democratic nomination has been visible only to political mavens and dedicated supporters of Howard Dean. But all that is about to change as the campaign enters the phase when real voters actually matter. So here are some things to mull if the conversation turns to politics over the weekend at the beach:

• The Dean Scene. When a little-known former governor of Vermont named Howard Dean started running for president early last year, his most wildly optimistic fantasies were premised on a campaign budget of $10 million. Thanks to his stunning emergence as the hottest Internet commodity since Google, the technophobic Dean — who didn't even use e-mail until two years ago — has snared nearly $11 million in six months. With an online army of 88,000 small givers, many of whom will donate again, Dean is poised to raise $35 million before the primaries, according to an estimate by a campaign manager for a rival candidate.

Now for the question of the moment: Will success spoil Howard Dean? Although his biting put-downs of his Democratic opponents have helped attract his passionate following, the suddenly well-funded Dean no longer needs to employ the pay-attention-to-me tactics of an insurgent candidate. But the Dean spleen is an essential part of his routine. It is an open question whether he can (or maybe even wants to) tone down his acerbic rhetoric to attract mainstream support without becoming too bland for his grandstand.

With its dizzying turns and dramatic reversals of fortune, a presidential race is, at its essence, a test of the character of the candidates. In 1992, a scandal-scarred Bill Clinton impressed Democrats with the desperate energy that powered him to a strong finish in the New Hampshire primary. Dean now faces the opposite problem. By coming so far so fast, he must in the months ahead demonstrate the breadth of vision and magnanimous spirit to convince skeptics that he is more than just the representative of the anger-management wing of the Democratic Party.

• Health, wealth and stealth. Sometimes listening to the Democratic contenders, you get the impression that there are only two domestic issues facing the nation: health-care and tax cuts for the wealthy. Virtually all the Democrats have made detail-laden speeches explaining how they would provide health coverage for uninsured Americans and revamp the Bush administration's tax policies.

But the Democratic contenders may be refighting the last two wars. Yes, the 2000 primary debates between Al Gore and Bill Bradley pivoted on the fine print in their rival health-care plans. And in 1992, Clinton vied with Paul Tsongas over who had the comprehensive prescription for the ailing economy.

But this time around, there is scant evidence that Democratic voters are in the mood to nitpick over minor policy differences, no matter how much they crave better health care and oppose the Bush tax cuts. What this suggests is the eventual emergence of some stealth domestic issue that will clarify the Democratic debate more effectively than the current me-too agreement on health care and tax policy.

• Delectable and electable. Since the primaries began to dominate the presidential-selection process in 1972, the disorderly Democrats have faced the quadrennial dilemma of how to nominate their most potentially electable candidate. This time around, virtually every major contender, with the exception of Dean and Richard Gephardt, has been trumpeting the notion that he is the candidate most apt to give Bush political wizard Karl Rove nightmares. Bob Graham, for example, boasts that he comes from the "electable wing of the Democratic Party."

All these claims have at least surface plausibility. North Carolina's John Edwards boasts the Southern pedigree and ingratiating charm to match the president in the likeability sweepstakes. John Kerry is a Vietnam War hero with the national-security credentials that give him credibility in the age of terrorism. Joe Lieberman has the hawkish outlook and moderate stance on domestic issues apt to appeal to centrist voters. And Graham is not only a former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he has also won six statewide elections in Florida, the most politically contested turf in America.

But this electability message may underestimate the willingness of Republicans to demonize any Democratic nominee. Edwards can be portrayed as an inexperienced trial lawyer. Kerry can be pounded as just another Massachusetts liberal. Lieberman and Graham might present trickier targets, although the GOP probably would point to the inevitable contradictions in their Senate voting records. But these autobiographical details may get less play in the Republican onslaught than the opposition of all the Democrats running to most of the president's tax cuts. Most likely, the 2004 election will turn out to be a referendum on the Bush record — and by that calculation, any Democrat nominated, including Dean, will be electable or none of them will.

• Poll patrol. Surveys of Iowa Democrats are notoriously unreliable, because it is near-impossible to predict who will actually brave a wintry evening to attend a caucus. So until we get close to the Jan. 27 primary in New Hampshire, consider all horse-race polls to be as changeable as the love lives of the cast of Sex and the City.