Incidence of famine

Famines have occurred periodically in most, if not all,
societies throughout history. Chronicles of ancient civilizations in India,
Egypt, Western Asia, China, Greece and Rome record famines in these and other
parts of the world. In the Middle Ages famine was a frequent occurrence in
Europe. For example, historians estimate that during the 900 year period from
the 10th Century to the 18th, there were 89 general famines in
France and hundreds more local famines. Since then famines in
Western Europe have become markedly less frequent as a result of agricultural
innovation and the Industrial Revolution, though the 1846-51 Great
Famine that occurred in Ireland was possibly one of the most catastrophic.
The most recent famine to occur in Western Europe developed in the
Netherlands during the winter of 1944 when a military stalemate between the
advancing Allied Forces and the retreating German Army created severe food
shortages in the main urban areas and significantly increased mortality.

Estimates of the total deaths directly attributable to a
particular famine are notoriously poor, often prone to exaggeration, and
frequently a matter of dispute. Bearing this in mind Box 4 describes some of the
most severe famines that have occurred in modern history. By comparison, excess
mortality in the Ethiopian Famine of 1984-85 is estimated at between 400,000 to
500,000, Rahmato 1991), though a figure often used by the media at that time was
over 1 million.

Box 4

EXAMPLES OF MAJOR FAMINES

Ireland 1845-1849Total excess mortality 1.0-1.25
million

This famine was caused by a combination of crop disease (potato
blight), and the British Governments reluctance to fund substantial relief
measures. It coincided with a bitter struggle within the British Parliament
between agricultural/rural protectionists and urban/industrial
free-traders over the so-called Corn Laws which restricted the
importation of foreign cereals to protect British farmers from cheap imports.
The potato blight first appeared in Ireland in September, 1845 at a time when
approximately half the population of 8 million were dependent upon potatoes.
Wheat, barley and oats were the other staples, a significant proportion of which
were traditionally exported to Britain. The doctrine that free trade
should not be impeded or disrupted severely limited the effectiveness of the
Governments response. Exports of cereals to Britain drawn by greater
demand in the industrial cities were allowed to continue throughout the famine.
Gratuitous distribution of relief food was allowed reluctantly and only in
remote areas where it was unlikely to conflict with private traders. Only those
owning less than 0.1 hectares of land were eligible for government relief. The
famine and its after effects had a profound effect on Irish society. Emigration
(principally to North America) increased dramatically, with the younger and more
dynamic tending to leave. By 1881 the combined effects of famine mortality and
emigration had reduced the total population by half. The pressure for national
independence was given considerable impetus by the famine.

Soviet Union 1932-34Total excess mortality
approximately 5 million

This famine is considered largely attributable to Stalins
forced collectivization programme. This programme extracted agricultural
products from the peasantry, partly to feed the state bureaucracy and urban
workers but also to pay for the rapid expansion of the industrial sector through
the export of grain in exchange for foreign machinery. The programme was
aggressively implemented by Communist Party officials who viewed the peasantry
as kulaks, (ie. conservatives who were uncommitted to the revolution) and
resulted in production targets that were unrealistically high and underestimated
or ignored the consumption needs of the peasantry. The searching of houses and
barns and the seizure of any grain found was a common feature of this period.
Foreign assistance was not allowed into the country to relieve the situation.

Bengal 1943-46Total excess mortality over 3
million

The interplay of war with Japan, a modest reduction in
production in Bengal (much of which now forms part of Bangladesh) due to
cyclones and floods and the ineptitude of the British administration caused this
famine. Burma, a traditional source of rice supplies, was invaded by the
Japanese in 1942. Because of the war footing of the economy, employment and
wages in urban areas were higher than normal. A cyclone in October 1942 reduced
production of the important winter aman rice crop and reduced the employment
available to agricultural laborers. As a result of these factors and the
uncertainty created by them, rice prices rose dramatically. Wholesale prices in
May 1943 were 380% above the level in May 1942. Agricultural laborers were
unable to afford these prices as were the rural artisans (barbers, weavers,
fisherman, etc.) whose income was partly dependent on the disposable income of
the laborers. As a result the artisans became destitute and, after the
agricultural laborers, experienced the greatest increases in mortality. Under
more normal circumstances, the Famine Codes would have come into effect
providing of a combination of works projects and food distributions. This was
not done, indeed the famine was never officially declared, largely because the
administration felt that there was insufficient food available locally to supply
such schemes. The reallocation of shipping to enable food to be imported was not
approved due to higher priority being given to military needs. The famine and
the criticism of the British administration fueled the development of Indian
nationalism. Independence was achieved in 1947.

China 1958-61Total excess mortality 16.5-29.5
million

This was possibly the most catastrophic famine in recorded
history. Though drought and floods in different parts of the country did
contribute, the famine was largely the result of policy failures associated with
Mao tse-Tungs Great Leap Forward. The Great Leap Forward
launched in 1957 involved the forced mobilization of the peasantry as part of a
crash programme to increase industrial production. Aggregate national grain
production fell by 25-30%.

Politically motivated exaggeration of crop production statistics
and the fear of local leaders communicating their problems up the administrative
hierarchy obscured the severity of the situation from national leaders. Policies
on the production, distribution and foreign trade in grains were not altered and
special relief programmes were not launched.