Latest News and Opinion

The geopolitical and market bogeymen of the moment – Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, tariffs, cyber warfare – are riding tall in the saddle.
That’s sparked something of a “flight to safety,” which ignited a bit of an uptick in demand for Treasuries this …

If targeting political extremes generates the most profit, then that’s what these corporations will pursue.As many of you know, oftwominds.com was falsely labeled propaganda by the propaganda operation known as ProporNot back in 201…

This weekend, I’d like to take a slightly nostalgic trip down Memory Lane, into the dark, swirling menacing pool that was the dawn of the Internet. OK, that sentence didn’t end up quite where I meant it to.

When I started my newsletter business in October of 2000, I decided to have a little fun with it on this new thing called the World Wide Web, aka “the internet.” If you, like me, are of a certain age, you remember well that we started every web address with the ubiquitous www.

WSJ: “Ten Years After the Bear Stearns Bailout, Nobody Thinks It Would Happen Again.” Myriad changes to the financial structure have seemingly safeguarded the financial system from another 2008-style crisis. The big Wall Street financial institutions…

It has been 2 months since I last had a chance to respond to reader comments. This seems like a good time to pause and take the opportunity to do so again. Keep them coming!

Today, since I’m in a contrarian mood, I thought I’d focus on ever-so-kindly replying to people who don’t see eye to eye with me…

I really enjoy these exchanges. They get my creative analytical juices flowing, and force me to consider alternative viewpoints which I may not have done initially.

In fact, the more rebuttals I write, the kinder I feel! Which is why I’ve decided to report a special gold opportunity today (continuing our prickly theme with an investment that is the very definition of contrarian right now).

If indeed this inflation hysteria has passed, its peak was surely late January. Even the stock market liquidations that showed up at that time were classified under that narrative. The economy was so good, it was bad; the Fed would be forced by rapid economic acceleration to speed themselves up before that acceleration got out…

Short-Volatility Funds Are Being Flooded With Cash (VIX Evaporating)

The SPX volatility index VIX is near an all-time low as The Federal Reserve attempts to raise their target rate and unwind their $4.46 trillion balance sheet. The question remains as to how further rate increases and balance sheet unwinding will impact equity volatility.

(Bloomberg) Exchange-trade products betting that volatility will sink lower have never been more popular.

Even as the CBOE Volatility Index plunges to its lowest on record and U.S. stocks march to fresh highs, investors have continued to give the short-volatility trade their vote of confidence this year. With $2.4 billion in assets, short volatility exchange-traded funds are backed by the most cash on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The funds’ meteoric rise is to some degree a bet that the U.S. stock market will keep rising, since the VIX and S&P 500 move in opposite directions about 80 percent of the time. With the S&P 500 up 16 percent and at its highest on record, the $1.1 billion VelocityShare Daily Inverse VIX ETN has surged 141 percent, heading toward its best yearly performance in five years.

Liquidity moves markets!

For now, the volatility bears have the momentum. Inverse VIX funds have nearly tripled in size this year alone. The amount of assets tracking short-volatility products rose above that of their long-volatility counterparts for the first time in two years in the third quarter.

In fact, regardless of direction, volatility itself is an in-demand asset class. The popularity of volatility products far outweighs that of other prominent corners in the U.S.-listed ETF market. With $4.6 billion in assets, they are larger than funds tracking any single European country, other than Germany. They also have more assets than those tracking all frontier markets and all ESG (environmental, social and governance) strategies combined.

However, despite the growth and the stellar returns, it’s unlikely most short-volatility investors have stuck around to see all of their triple-digit profit. Because of the funds’ structure, holding periods tend to be as short as a few days or even just a few hours.

For the TYVIX (10 year Treasury note volatility), it remains near the all-time low.

Wall Street Examiner Disclosure:Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I am a contractor for Money Map Press, publisher of Money Morning, Sure Money, and other information products. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. In some cases I receive promotional consideration on a contingent basis, when paid subscriptions result. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. No endorsement of third party content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers.

Cut through the Wall Street spin to get a clear view of the markets and the economy."Get the facts" delivered every day.

Check your inbox for the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not there, check your SPAM folder and be sure to whitelist the "From: Lee Adler" email address. Your information will *never* be shared or sold to a 3rd party.

Cut through the Wall Street spin to get a clear view of the markets and the economy. "Get the facts," delivered by email.
- Lee Adler

(Optional)

Check your inbox for the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not there, check your SPAM folder and be sure to whitelist the "From: Lee Adler" email address. Your information will *never* be shared or sold to a 3rd party.