According to a report released in
advance of the September 20-22 Summit being held in New York, Pakistan is among
the seven countries around the globe where two-thirds of world's undernourished
live. The report called for speeding progress towards achievement of the United
Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the first of which is to end
poverty and hunger.

Bangladesh, China, Congo, Ethiopia,
Indonesia, and India are the six other countries. Asia and the Pacific has
become the region with the most undernourished people estimated around 578
million whereas new estimate of the number of people who will suffer chronic
hunger this year is 925 million, down from 1,023 million for 2009.

The UN Food and Agriculture
Organisation (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) report reveals the hunger figure
contained in the 'State of Food Insecurity in the World'.

The number of hungry people in the
world remains high despite expected recent gains that have pushed the figure
below one billion. The lower global hunger number are based on the expectations
that the economic growth would be better this year particularly in developing
countries.

However, the recent increase in food
prices can mar further reduction of hunger. The International Monetary Fund
estimates that world economic output will increase by 4.2 per cent in 2010,
faster than forecasted, following a contraction of 0.6 per cent in 2009. In
general, income is growing faster in emerging economies and developing countries
than it is in developed countries

Out of the eight millennium development
goals devised by the UN in 2000, the top item pledged to halve the proportion of
hungry people from 20 to 10 per cent by 2015. With a lapse of five years, the
percentage was reported at 16 per cent, however. Globally, the hunger figure
marked a decline mostly concentrated in Asia, where 80 million fewer people were
estimated to be going hungry this year. In sub-Saharan Africa the drop was much
smaller about 12 million and one out of three people there would continue to be
undernourished.

While international cereal prices have
declined from their 2008 peaks, reflecting two consecutive years of record
yields, production in 2010 is forecast to be lower. The overall supply situation
is considered adequate. However, food prices in most low-income food-deficit
countries remain above the pre-crisis level, negatively affecting access to food
by vulnerable populations. The joint report has noted that the global cereal
production has been strong for the past several years, even as the number of
undernourished people was rising. The overall improvement in food security in
2010 has been primarily a result of better access to food due to the improvement
in economic conditions, particularly in developing countries, combined with
lower food prices.

OUTLOOK FOR PAKISTAN

Initial increase in prices was
attributed to price hike due to Ramadan but in the aftermath of devastating
floods prices of almost all the food items have doubled and even tripled. It is
true that supply constraints are there but hike is mainly due to profiteering
and inability of the government to control price.

Prior to flood Pakistan was planning to
export surplus wheat but post floods price of wheat flour went up mainly due to
interruption supplies. While it has been observed that some of the stored wheat
has been damaged, people having vested interest are supplying staled cereal to
the flour mills.

Experts are of the opinion that
Pakistan can attain bumper wheat production if appropriate measures are taken in
time. If farmers are provided seed and other inputs at subsidised rates a big
boost in wheat production can be achieved.

To achieve this rehabilitation of
people affected from floods is a must. The process has been hampered by second
spell of downpour and standing water in the fields. Damaged bridges and
inundated roads are not allowing return of people to their homes. Unless they
settle down farming activities can't be normalised. Hike in prices of fruits and
vegetables can also be contained once new crop is made available, but it will
take some time. One of the options is to import potato, onion, tomato, and even
chili from India to ensure uninterrupted supply.

Pakistan despite being among the top
five milk-producing countries has witnessed persistent and substantial increase
in milk price. Availability of milk in tetra packs has brought changes in the
consumption pattern, particularly in the urban areas. However, interruption in
supplies provide a chance to traders to indulge in hording and black marketing.
Vendors in Karachi blame that if they do not get enough supply how can they
guarantee supply to the consumers. They also blame that manufacturers have been
increasing prices regularly and they were told that post Ramadan supply would be
at higher prices.

Interruption in supply is temporary but
concerted efforts have to be made to bring the situation back to normal at the
earliest. It is on record that the country suffers mainly because of poor yield,
nearly half of the yield achieved in the neighboring countries. This arises from
non-availability of certified seeds, limited supply of irrigation water and
above all lack of credit to the small farmers.

Despite the best efforts of the central
bank, lending to farmers has remained low. It was expected that crop insurance
would help in increasing credit disbursement but the fact of the matter is that
the existing scheme is credit insurance not the crop insurance.