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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

Most everything decent in close in Seattle is pending or sold. Too many other folks are underwater and can’t sell. And the rest of the shadow inventory haven’t figured out yet that it is a seller’s market.

1) Tied up in those that are underwater (basically most folks who bought between 2003-2010) – aka those that are stuck, and for what ever reason won’t walk away or do a short sale, or don’t have cash to bring to closing when they sell “their” home.

2) Tied up in those that bought before the few years leading up to the peak, or with huge down payments, that have “anchored” on a bubble like price so are holding out for “the market to recover” (aka these are the folks in Denial). These houses may hit the market en mass when these folks move from “denial” to “fear” and “panic” and try and save what they can of their equity as prices continue to bleed lower, especially if they haven’t converted their mindset to type 4 below in the meantime.

3) Tied up in those that are doing all they can to delay legitimate foreclosures. Note that this could be the property own…I mean renters, who are playing delay games to live rent / mortgage free or banks that are purposefully delaying foreclosing on non-performers to avoid having to write down the loan / take the loss. AKA the Shadow Inventory. In the end, this is one of the more damaging aspects, as it delays the needed destruction / write off of the bad debts and the freeing up of these “zombie” houses for those that would use them productively AND freeing up the own/renters from the stress and financial obligations. Only once these bad debts are cleared and the fiddling thumbs of the Feds taken off the scales can a normal, healthy, self sustaining, rational housing market return.

4) Those that have come to the realization that a home is a place to live and it doesn’t make financial sense to churn through a house every 3-7 years, paying 6-10% expenses per full cycle transaction, especially in an environment of stagnant to declining house prices (not that it really made much sense in the rising market either, but the gains masked this expense). These are the smart owners, the REAL owners – the ones that buy once, perhaps twice in a lifetime, in cash, or pay off the mortgage (15-30 year fixed with at least 20% down) as quickly as possible, and buy with the intention of staying until they die. You’ll find their homes on the market in another 20-40 years when they die, move to the assisted living facility, or move to Arizona for a sunny retirement.

Is there any reason to expect a return to higher numbers of listings and higher numbers of transactions in the past? If / as people wise up and move toward a (4) mindset toward housing, overall transaction volume would drop significantly from that of the time leading into the peak. Even pre-peak, there was a lot of “equity ladder” climbing going on – it just seems stupid to pay that 6-10% with every turn – you’re talking 5 figures for even a modest starter house to next level move up. Quit being stupid people, if you’re going to buy, then BUY. If you want to keep changing houses every few years, you’re far better off renting.

I used to think I was so smart for not buying in 2003-2008 when everyone was telling me I’d be priced out forever.

Now it’s 2012, and I have a few hundred thousand saved up to buy, and I can’t find what I’m looking for. There were a few homes that went for sale in 2011 that were great, but I wasn’t mentally in a frame to buy yet, since Tim hadn’t declared bottom yet.

Maybe I would have been better off overpaying by 40% a few years ago? Now I’m stuck renting forever.

(at least my rent is still only $850/month, so I can save for a downpayment on a second home in just a few more years…if only there were homes to buy!)

I kinda feel (with no specific facts to enumerate for reference) that many banks might be holding onto properties to see how good of a pseudo-bailout deal they can get selling them to investors under the federal government’s most recent misguided waste of taxpayer money. There’s no reason to sell on the open market if the government will give you a little something extra for selling to their cohorts, and it’s worth a few months of the properties sitting vacant to find out how lucrative the windfall might be.

This same thing has happened, to some extent, with all the previous government “reward the banks and irresponsible buyers” programs. That’s why we’re going on four years into what could have been a six month correction, if not for the government.

This is another example of how the traditional brokerage is a bit more adept at dealing with different markets. Right now it’s very hard to find decent properties for buyers. Traditional brokerages don’t care, because it’s their agents’ time at stake. Brokerages which pay their agents on an hourly basis . . ..

Seems that if prices keep/start slowly ticking up we might even get less inventory over the next year or so. Those who are underwater and unwilling to take their losses will still be underwater so those probably don’t start coming on anytime soon. On the other hand those sellers who might have otherwise been willing to just take a loss and move on might see 1-2%yoy price appreciation and decide that they’ll just wait till they make up their paper losses from the peak, even though that will in reallity take decades.

a) Have equity, but don’t want to take it in the shorts at today’s prices.
b) Upside down on the loan and couldn’t sell if they wanted to.
c) Renting their property out instead of selling it because of (a) or (b)

And of course, you can replace home owners with bank REO’s and they are sitting on it because.

a) Releasing them quickly will look disastrous on their quarterly earnings. No bonus for you!
b) Releasing them quickly will flood the market and likely drive prices down even more, which will increase the jingle mail.

There must be plenty of inventory because there are consistently over 1,000 people/month finding something to buy. And you have literally thousands of homes to choose from. Not only that, but the Altos graph on the sidebar shows inventory moving skyward since mid-January. So turn that frown upside-down…

This post shows one of the other problems with tech based Real Estate. These are kind of like Galen’s charts from Estately. They don’t say anything.

Every square inch of the earth is for sale, for the right price, or terms.

Let me use a little more logic. We are in a time when home owners are losing equity every year they hold on. The only way to get a return on the money invested in a property is by rental income, either by not having a mortgage, or by renting out a portion of the property, or all of it.

We are in a time of no appreciation, and even if we had inflation it would be in a time of historically low interest rates that could be cranked up to double digits. That would fix that.

So we’re in a time when people should sell, and buyers should wait. Instead we have the reverse. We have buyers paying way too much for crappy inventory, and sellers holding out for better prices.

Given 2.x interest rates, stable to rising rents, and low to falling sale prices, the inventory is being rented out. In an environment where it is feasible to buy a home on day 1 , and make good money turning around and renting it out on day 2, one of these three needs to change for sellers to be back.

New constructions are practically non-existent in the last four years. But population in the area continues to grow. So it is natural that we are running low on inventory. With affordability at the highest in a generation, people are starting to jump on properties as soon as they come online. So far prices have not taken off in a measurable way but we are probably past bottom in many high demand neighborhoods.

This is in context of the claim about being freed from stress and financial obligations. It’s hard to see how paying monthly rent is cheaper than not paying monthly mortgage payments.
That was my intended point.

New constructions are practically non-existent in the last four years.

Not really. There was a time about 4 years ago when seeing people pounding on new construction looked odd. But the last two years there has been quite a bit of new construction. It’s mainly on lots that were platted before the peak and sold at prices which wouldn’t even cover the improvements to the land. There’s still a number of such lots out there in various places.

David Losh @ 22 your post doesn’t seem like logic to me. You don’t get to decide how things work my making a declaration. People in my family have been buying and selling houses at a profit for the last couple years…. They appreciate because they make them appreciate through hard work. People who think you’re holding out for a magic time where you sit on your kester in a house you don’t do anything to improve it and it increases beyond inflation are gonna be waiting a long time. So the time to buy IS now, just not for a lot of people… Basically, people who shouldn’t own homes anyway.

You missed the point. Sure there were distressed/defunct/foreclosed construction projects. But there were practically no new construction projects until the last few months. Banks practically stopped making construction loans for SFR for the past 4 years. If you look at the data, new constructions have been in uncharted territory since they started keeping record. Even today, it is far below what is needed to replenish the existing housing stock.

RE:Eastsider @ 33 – New developments in Sammamish have started within the last 1-2 years. Not sure when they were supposed to have started, but it seems that some folks believe it is now time to go for it. Even a long dormant build has re-started on E. Lake Sammamish. Green shoots?

You missed the point. Sure there were distressed/defunct/foreclosed construction projects. But there were practically no new construction projects until the last few months.

I didn’t miss the point. That is simply incorrect. They’ve been building since at least the second tax credit. Prior to then it was quite dead, but since then construction has been occurring. Not at the 2007 rate, but at a decent clip.

The NWMLS is reporting over 3,700 SFR houses sold built 2010 or later in King County alone. Over 2,000 of those were built in 2010.

Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

If you want to limit it to land platted after 2007, then that might be right, but I’m not sure what the point of that would be. Land not yet platted by then would typically be inferior, and why would anyone start from scratch when other land exists where the plat has been completed? And in any case, your point was about inventory, so for that it really doesn’t matter when the land was platted.

When you cram two big corporations in a strip of land between mountains and water with a couple clogged 60 year old freeway systems [I-5 and I-405], then freeze and reduce wages, with a 14%+ population increase since 2000.

Many scenarios may unfold in the next 5-10 years, but in my opinion the younger Y Generation [they are Seattle’s real estate hope for the future whether you X Generation boneheads will admit it or not] hold the keys for our future prices, and right now the only keys they can afford aren’t even close to Seattle prices today. They’d drive away in a $150K model, perhaps….

Because I think, my feeling is, that REOs, and foreclosures are fair market value, and no one should pay more than what is the market place today. In other words there are no bargains to buy. There are no GEMS, just junk, and a lot of junk that people, institutions, and investors are purging from inventory.

People are paying a lot for properties, and giving banks the gift of 20% down, for 30 years of debt with no upside, other than rent stability.

I understand there are plenty of buyers willing to buy into today’s market. I just don’t feel right about exploiting them.

And speaking as a home owner in Seattle, its not just affording the mortgage payments and cash down mitigating qualified sales; its saving cash to keep the junker you bought from being totally unlivable….and if you think you can live in old wore out Seattle real estate without major repairs withing 5-10 years, I have a bridge I can sell ya….

The new houses are a different scenario, but they too have defects the new siding and drywall cover up, until the frame collapses or the pipes break….buying/spending on a house doesn’t stop after escrow, it goes on and on; like the Energizer bunnie….

“that REOs, and foreclosures are fair market value”—WRONG…there are many REO’s and Foreclosures that are GREATLY overpriced initially but then as time drags on their prices drop like all the others to their current market value….Just having an REO or Foreclosure guarantees NOTHING….The TRUE GEMS come in many different routes to Buyers and it takes TIME, DD, and CASH ready to ACT!

also in/re to this: “I said price, or terms. That property is sold. ” She died Dave…DEAD…I assure you that unfortunately, FOR ME, I have met many a seller that will not sell their real estate for ANY amount of dough or lateral trade THEN or NOW. We have tried on numerous occassions with numerous people over the last 2 decades. “Every square inch of earth is NOT for sale” at least at a given time..

Of course every square inch is for sale. She could have been offered a life estate with the same type of “monument” proposal that’s on the table today. It depends on the terms.

Just because a certain segment of our population is greedy, and demanding the world live by their terms, doesn’t make for a negotiation.

In addition, I agree many, many, and many REOs that I look at are over priced. A person buying a family home may be interested, but they are not an investment for profit.

The best deals I have seen are estates, in the $400K to $600K range. I think more people need to get used to the idea of doing the work to properties they buy, rather than pay for some one else’s dream.

In regards the zombie houses / trapped assets: So, do you think that someone who hasn’t paid a dime on their mortgage in a year or two is maintaining the house? Ya think they’re going to paint it to preserve the exterior, for example, or fix that minor roof leak (so long as their personal possessions aren’t being damaged)? With it rotting away out from under them, that’s a wasting asset that a true owner would maintain. How much wealth (e.g. the physical plant that is a home) is wasting away from neglect?

As far as the stress: Uncertainty breeds stress. That a person may have fended off the bank for a while doesn’t mean that the fight is over. At SOME point, they’ll lose the house – a question of when, not if. just get it over with and move on to a situation that they can sustain over the long haul given their resources. How much mental energy is spent fighting a “rightful” foreclosure?

Couldn’t that energy and time be put to more productive uses, like taking care of the family, their business / career, education, exercise, hobbies, etc? I’d say resoundingly YES.

When you cram two big corporations in a strip of land between mountains and water with a couple clogged 60 year old freeway systems [I-5 and I-405], then freeze and reduce wages, with a 14%+ population increase since 2000.

Many scenarios may unfold in the next 5-10 years, but in my opinion the younger Y Generation [they are Seattle’s real estate hope for the future whether you X Generation boneheads will admit it or not] hold the keys for our future prices, and right now the only keys they can afford aren’t even close to Seattle prices today. They’d drive away in a $150K model, perhaps….

Preach it brother. I’m a member of said ‘Y’ Generation, and on a decent system engineer’s wages, with the cost of living/commuting in this area it will be years before I can manage to save up a 20% down payment for even the $150,000 model.

This is because at least in my field, there is zero employment stability. Some Contract jobs, but nothing perm(so far). I could probably save the DP in about a year, but as I’m constantly working myself out of a job and then having to survive on unemployment/savings until the next contract, it makes saving long term rather difficult.

Thus, I have no plans to buy until we stop hemorrhaging jobs to/from(H1B) India thus giving me a little leverage to demand something perm at a decent salary, or prices will have to drop significantly.

I’m the mythical first time homebuyer with some savings and above average income(when I’m working) that you’re all expecting to bring the market back, but here’s a newsflash:

I won’t even consider buying until median prices come back in line with average family incomes. In Lake forest park – a moderate to slightly upscale neighborhood, the average household income is about $75k, but the median selling price(according to Trulia) is about $300k.

At 75k income, the median home price should be MAX around 180k (2.5x income), with 225K on the high end(3x income). And this is BEFORE we factor in the effects of the shadow inventory and other assorted shenanigans(see No Name Guy’s #7 post above).

And this is all assuming that the major employers choose to continue running their operations here instead of migrating to locations with a MUCH lower cost of living / doing business.

So tell me again why I should fund your retirement by buying your albatross?

Heresy! It’s not just our homes you need to purchase, it’s those social security taxes we need you to pay. Have you thought about getting a second job? With rising fuel costs airline tickets are getting a bit rich and we usually go to Hawaii at least twice a year . . . ;-)

RE:No Name Guy @ 44 – No name just to pass on some info on these homeowners that do not pay. The vast majority I know , do to the investment groups we belong to , do in fact keep up the homes because they seem to be waiting for the next “deal” that comes down the line so they can keep their home. If you only knew the financial incentives homeowners are getting now to short sale or keep their homes it would knock your socks off. The deals get better by the month.

Just yesterday I was at Target and the manager knew me from Coaching and saw my 500 Realty sweatshirt. He went on to tell me how his investor on his home loan ( serviced by Ocwen) lowered his principle balance to 149k from over 230k. It was a 3 year agreement that if all payments are made on time principle gets crammed down to current market value. He said he was 60 days out from foreclosure and it was a god send.

What people are getting offered now for Buying during the Bubble is a once in a lifetime gift because we all know ….. Everybody gets one…. Do they not!

Stay tuned for more deals of a lifetime for upside down homeowners that will be sold to America as what’s best for us all snd it will anger millions while be heaven sent for so many!

RE:Eastsider @ 33 – New developments in Sammamish have started within the last 1-2 years. Not sure when they were supposed to have started, but it seems that some folks believe it is now time to go for it. Even a long dormant build has re-started on E. Lake Sammamish. Green shoots?

Yes near me in Sammamish, the builder’s sign says “31 homes sold in 9 months” and they were all $700K plus. They have even started building $1.2M properties in the Issaquah Highlands again;

In regards the zombie houses / trapped assets: So, do you think that someone who hasn’t paid a dime on their mortgage in a year or two is maintaining the house? Ya think they’re going to paint it to preserve the exterior, for example, or fix that minor roof leak (so long as their personal possessions aren’t being damaged)? With it rotting away out from under them, that’s a wasting asset that a true owner would maintain. How much wealth (e.g. the physical plant that is a home) is wasting away from neglect?

As far as the stress: Uncertainty breeds stress. That a person may have fended off the bank for a while doesn’t mean that the fight is over. At SOME point, they’ll lose the house – a question of when, not if. just get it over with and move on to a situation that they can sustain over the long haul given their resources. How much mental energy is spent fighting a “rightful” foreclosure?

Couldn’t that energy and time be put to more productive uses, like taking care of the family, their business / career, education, exercise, hobbies, etc? I’d say resoundingly YES.

Your initial post talked about using houses productively. I asked for a clarification of terms. You respond with a hypothetical rotting house. So I will respond in kind: Is a house built in 2006 really in dire need of paint? Is the roof likely to be leaking. But at least we now know that using a house productively means maintaining it.

Uncertainty breeds stress? Well, sometimes. I recommend you try and de-stress a cancer patient by telling them to just get it over with. I’d especially like if I can watch.

RE:Sheldon Wells @ 46 –
With the instability in your income, you should definitely not try to buy a house, but…
what is this straight across median house to median income thing? The bottom 30% has always been out of the marketplace. This means that ignoring other factors (homes owned for a long time, accumulated savings, etc.), the 50th percentile income only marries up to the (bottom) 20th percentile in for-sale housing (this includes condo’s). Where are the much vaunted math skills?

He was putting a pick line in a homeless man and asked him how they got by. The homeless man told him there was food banks and churches for food, public bathrooms to clean up at and plenty of abandoned Seattle area homes to break into for a roof.

I have to laugh when I read people saying that “there’s nothing but junk on the market.”

Hah! Welcome to Seattle! The entire housing stock was constructed in 1910 for workers at coal generation plants. Somehow they took worker housing and for 20 years, convinced people it was the chicest, hippest place for upper middle class people to be. Now that the bloom is off the rose, you are seeing it for what it really is. Wood covered in mold!