DAILY ALERT

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad received in Damascus on Tuesday Iraqi Vice
President, Taha Yassin Ramadan and his accompanying delegation which
included Syria's Trade Minister, Minister of Transport, Minister of Industry
and Minerals, and advisors. Talks during the meeting dealt with boosting
bilateral relations in all fields and latest developments on the Arab arena.
&nbsp Assad underlined Syria's supportive stance with the brotherly Iraq
stressing Syria's rejection of the threats targeting Iraq. Assad also stressed
Syria's interest to enhance Arab solidarity in the face of all challenges
facing the Arab nation.
(Syrian Arab News Agency)

Since early 2002, Saddam Hussein has been trying to be on the forefront of Arab
support of the Intifada. Recently, Palestinian Authority newspapers began
reporting on this phenomenon. The Palestinian Authority (PA) daily Al-Hayat
Al-Jadida reported on an event held by the Iraqi-sponsored Arab Liberation
Front in the Hebron home of the family of Marwan Zalum, the commander of
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (killed by in April 2002). During the event, $10,000
was given to each of the 12 families - donations from Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein.

Bush Assails Hussein, but Saudis Are Firm in Opposing War
President Bush told Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.S. on Tuesday that
Saddam Hussein was "a menace and a threat" to both his Middle East neighbors
and the U.S. But after a meeting that lasted several hours, Saudi officials
said their position was unchanged - that war was not acceptable and they would
not cooperate in any military action. A few administration officials suggested
privately that the vehemence of Mr. Cheney's speech on Monday had taken them by
surprise. (New York Times)

Arab Resolve Against Invasion of Iraq Deepens
Qatar and Saudi Arabia refuse to support the U.S., complicating any Bush
administration plan to launch an attack from bases in the region. Public
sentiment is so universal that even Kuwait - which a U.S.-led coalition
liberated from Iraqi occupation in 1991 - is officially opposed to an invasion.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned the U.S. on Tuesday, "If you strike at
the Iraqi people because of one or two individuals and leave the Palestinian
issue, not a single ruler will be able to curb the popular sentiments. We fear
a state of disorder and chaos may prevail in the region." (Los Angeles Times)
See also
Bush Moves to Ease Tensions With Saudis
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made it clear yesterday that broad
international support is not a prerequisite for U.S. action. "It is less
important to have unanimity than it is to be making the right decisions and
doing the right thing."
An April visit by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah was a near disaster,
sources said. Bush appeared poorly briefed about Abdullah's peace proposal for
the Middle East, and Abdullah told others he was insulted. Before that meeting,
Abdullah had a tense conversation with Cheney over Iraq. Abdullah confronted
Cheney over his concern that officials in Cheney's office had been spreading
the word that the Saudis would privately back a war with Iraq despite their
public protestations. "No, the answer is no. I said 'No' in Saudi Arabia, I say
'No' now and I will say 'No' tomorrow," Abdullah told Cheney. (Washington Post)

Gen. Zinni Says War With Iraq Is Unwise
Retired Marine Corps Gen. Anthony C. Zinni, a senior adviser to Secretary of
State Colin L. Powell, said in a speech in Tallahassee on Friday that an Iraqi
war would be expensive and would draw down the armed forces' manpower, which is
already "stretched too tight all over the world.'' Worst of all, a war against
Iraq would antagonize America's friends in the Middle East. Zinni argued that
the United States would be wiser to negotiate peace between Israelis and
Palestinians and to pursue the al Qaeda network before going after Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein.
(Tampa Tribune)

We Won't Arm Israel
British Prime Minister Tony Blair has cracked down on arms sales to Israel to
head off a rebellion by Labour MPs. A secret memo from the Government's Export
Control Director states: "The outbreak of the intifada, the continued Israeli
incursions in the Occupied Territories and the breach of Israel's assurance
that UK originated equipment would not be used in the Occupied Territories have
all been factored into the Government's current export licensing policy. As a
result, we have not approved licences for equipment that would have been
licensed before." One of the first casualties is an application from a British
firm to export ejector seats for Israeli warplanes.
(Mirror - UK)

News Resources - Israel and Mideast:

Peres: PA Parliament Should Be Allowed to Hold Special Session
Foreign Minister Shimon Peres said Wednesday that Israel should allow a special
session of the Palestinian parliament to approve elections and reforms, as well
as the new makeup of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's cabinet.
The Prime Minister's Office released a statement on Tuesday saying that
permission would be denied if Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat were
to head the session. The U.S. wants the Palestinians to hold parliamentary
elections first, have parliament choose a prime minister and only then prepare
for a presidential vote, as a way of sidelining Arafat. (Ha'aretz)

High-Tech Exports to U.S. Down 34% in First Half of 2002
Industrial exports to the U.S., excluding diamonds, dropped 10% in the first
half of this year, compared with the corresponding period last year. Exports
for the six-month period were $2.77 billion. The Israel Export Institute
director general said he "hadn't seen this rate of decline in a decade."
Imports from the U.S. to Israel fell 17% in the first half of 2002, compared
with the corresponding period last year, to $3.25 billion. According to the
director, the decrease in exports was due to the continuing recession in the
U.S., especially in high-tech. The drug and pharmaceutical sector was Israeli
export's one ray of light. In the first half of 2002, there was a 66% increase
in drug and pharmaceutical exports to the U.S., compared with the corresponding
period last year, to $324 million. (Globes)

Shubaki: Arafat Abandoned Me
Fuad Shubaki, the chief financial officer of the Palestinian Authority who is
currently being held in a Jericho jail, charged Tuesday, "I was told that I
would stay in the PA's compound in Jericho as Arafat's guest. No one told me
that I would be held in prison with American and British wardens. I've been
abandoned by Arafat and the PA. How come I've never been put on trial? Where is
the evidence against me?" The IDF says that computer files and other documents
regarding arms and ammunition inventories (dated 1999) found in Shubaki's
office detail prohibited weapons, such as RPG-7 launchers and rockets, found in
PA facilities. (Jerusalem Post)

80,000 Palestinians Emigrated from Territories since Beginning of Year
Approximately 80,000 Palestinians have left the West Bank and Gaza
Strip since the beginning of the year, a rise of 50 percent compared to last
year, a senior Palestinian Authority official said Monday. Another 50,000
Palestinians are now trying to leave through the Jordan River bridges and the
Rafah border crossing. Thousands of Palestinians have been camping in the open
air outside Jericho. About 1,000 Palestinians from Bethlehem had left the
country over the past few months. (Jerusalem Post)

Senior Officer: More and More Terrorists Surrendering to IDF
Some 30 Palestinians wanted by Israel have recently surrendered to the IDF.
Several of the wanted men negotiated through intermediaries before
surrendering. The men, realizing that it was only a matter of time before they
would be captured or killed, asked for assurances that their families' homes
not be demolished, Maariv reported. Others surrendered unconditionally.
Palestinians have turned in family members planning terror attacks. In the past
month, the Israeli army has razed more than two dozen homes of Palestinian
terror suspects. (Israelinsider)

We Will Not Live at the Mercy of Terrorists
- William Kristol
Vice President Dick Cheney laid out a compelling case for action against
Saddam Hussein.
The debate in the administration is over. The time for action grows near.
Congressional leaders should seriously consider a resolution authorizing use of
force when they return next week. Passing such a resolution as soon as possible
would provide the president with maximum flexibility and an opportunity for
tactical surprise, would strengthen his hand vis-a-vis our allies, and might
embolden internal opposition in Iraq. (Weekly Standard)

I'm With Dick! Let's Make War!
- Maureen Dowd
I was dubious at first. But now I think Dick Cheney has it right. Let's
declare war on Saudi Arabia! Let's do "regime change" in a kingdom that gives
medieval a bad name. By overthrowing the Saudi monarchy, the
Cheney-Rummy-Condi-Wolfy-Perle-W. contingent could realize its dream of
redrawing the Middle East map. Once everyone realizes that we're no longer
being hypocrites, coddling a corrupt, repressive dictatorship that sponsors
terrorism even as we plot to crush a corrupt, repressive dictatorship that
sponsors terrorism, it will transform our relationship with the Arab world. It
was embarrassing yesterday, given President Bush's swagger on Iraq, to watch
him fawn over the Saudis. At lunch at his ranch he entertained Prince Bandar,
the man who got private planes to spirit bin Laden's relatives out of the U.S.
after the attacks. (New York Times)

Thinking the Unthinkable
- Arnaud de Borchgrave
Kenneth Adelman, a former Reagan arms controller, is a member of the Defense
Policy Board. Adelman, speaking on C-SPAN (Aug. 21), said Saudi Arabia is "a
terribly barbaric society at the bottom of the human-rights list, worst of the
worst, along with North Korea. Why should we keep troops there to defend the
Saudis? Makes no sense." The U.S. has moved swiftly to reduce dependence on
Saudi oil. Almost unnoticed, the U.S. now gets only 8 percent of its oil needs
from the kingdom. September 11 revealed an ugly House of Saud secret. The
scheme was brilliant in its simplicity. Saudi's fanatical Wahhabi clergy was
allocated untold billions during the past 20 years to turn the Koran into a
book of holy war against the U.S. and Israel and spread its teachings in
mosques and Koranic schools around the world. In return, the Saudi clergy
agreed to keep the 25,000-strong royal family out of its crosshairs. What the
House of Saud still can't accept is that it has sown the seeds of its own
destruction. It is now reassessing its strategic relationship with the U.S.
Washington's reassessment of that relationship started after September 11. It
is now almost complete. (Washington Times)

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been put on hold as discussions get
underway over the American attack against Iraq.

The diplomatic contacts are moving forward slowly and have revealed the deep
rift between the sides. Everyone talks in the same phrases but with completely
different meanings

Foreign Minister Peres believes that the whole proposed election process will
blow up over the demand that residents of east Jerusalem participate in the
elections, since the current Israeli government will never agree to that.

For tactical reasons, Israel is refraining from expressing outright opposition
to the democratic process and instead is proposing a number of conditions -
first and foremost, a thorough reform of the Palestinian security forces and
the ousting of Arafat.

According to defense establishment assessments, this means that the
Palestinian elections will not be able to take place before the end of 2003
[after elections in Israel]. The U.S. proposal speaks of holding elections at
the end of spring next year, to be followed by an IDF withdrawal to
pre-intifada positions and the transfer of Arafat to a symbolic post.

The IDF has proposed to Sharon that during the waiting period for a change on
the Palestinian side, or for an American attack against Iraq, Israel should
adopt a "risk management" policy and avoid escalation with the Palestinians or
a flare-up on the northern border, as far as is possible. There are three
requirements for this:
1. Terror has to be kept to a "tolerable" level. The assessment in
Israel is that there is no perfect answer to terror but that the IDF's presence
in the West Bank makes it more difficult to carry out attacks.
2. American support has to be ensured. The General Staff's
assessment is that the U.S. is supporting Israel now and views it as part of
the front in the world struggle against terror.
3. There must be public support in Israel. The Gaza and Bethlehem
First plan, which Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer drew up with Mohammed
Dahlan, is seen as part of the "risk management" policy.

Israeli experts believe that the Palestinians have the capability of acting
against terror inside Gaza, and that they also have sufficient policemen on pay
inside the West Bank. Israeli experts are encouraged by reports of internal
struggles in the Tanzim between the supporters of a non-violent struggle and
those who wish to continue the terror attacks only in the territories, against
soldiers and "occupiers."