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Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, June 11-13

And now I eat humble pie.

In yesterday’s BTS Report, I eschewed my instincts and soliloquized how Ichiro Suzuki was a primo selection for Thursday’s action despite a recent 1-for-11 stretch.

I wiped the slate clean with the Mariners catalyst. I forgave the man for all his previous transgressions and 0-fers and put together some stats that on paper made him look as pristine as ever.

I even put my modest five-game streak on the line and I like to think I had something to do with Ichiro being the day’s most popular selection, as 12.4 percent of all users also came along for the ride.

So how does my metaphorical olive branch get rewarded?

With a cold-blooded 0-for-4 performance against the new Legion of Doom tag team that is Tommy Hunter and Darren Oliver, that’s how.

? Russell Martin: .412 AVG (7-for-23) lifetime vs. Angels starter Jered Weaver. Weaver was blasted for 12 hits and six earned runs vs. an unimposing A’s lineup last time out. We have a winner! Show the great people what they’ve won …

The three streakers atop our leaderboard — ya know, the people who actually know what they are doing — guffawed at my Ichiro selection and went with Vlad Guerrero, who’s bat has been made of molten lava lately.

On cue, Vlad rocketed two hits and our leaderboard remains in tact.

So the following threesome now possess 29-game streaks and are 50.9 percent on their way to buying a college athlete for USC:

? BsblGeenus

? dyno11Mike

? ecurryjmp2

Meanwhile, in “Survivor”, “brentandcam” continued to roll by correctly predicting a Reds victory over the Giants.

“Brent” and “Cam”‘s 22-game streak looked to be in serious jeopardy until the Reds put up a three-spot in the bottom of the eighth to win their 12th game of the season in their final at-bats.

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108 Comments

I got reset in all 3 with my choices yesterday but my season starts today and I have Jeter in BTS, Rocks in Survivor and Bay in HR BTS. Why Bay? Well he hits Guthrie well and wind is blowing out towards left field so I’m taking my chances. I’m just gutted as Red Sox had that game last night and blew it. It happens but time to start a new streak.

The problem with sleeper pick like Borbon is as soon as he gets discovered, he will go cold. That is why he is a sleeper. If he kept this up, he would be Derek Jeter.

I’ve noticed Borbon for last 3 to 4 days already but as mentioned before, he bats 9th which is a problem if it turns out that the opposing pitcher is having a dandy day. Even worst if Texas pitches even does better and Borbon gets 3 ABs. Plus, there are way too many big bats lined-up at the top for TX.

There are many sleepers. The problem is most of them are at the bottom of the line-ups. Even look at Rolen and Phillips. They amassed impressive streaks without hardly getting any picks. Phillips looked good for today but for the fact that you just don’t believe this will last.

I’m back at 0 and have nothing to lose. I’m picking Jeter to get back to 1. I still can’t belive that the Orioles switched pitchers on such short notice or I would not have put 17 on Swisher who I had taken because I had seen Guthrie listed for yesterday. Oh well I’ll try to start a new streak today with Jeter. AND I will check the computer everyday for now on incase any team switches pitchers or possibly sits someone which may lead to a dreadful PH 0 for 1.

Tenten.
Pena looks as good as any for HR as he’s just been killing the ball this week. I know cause the guy I’m playing against in fantasy has him. :(
Action Jackson has kinda gone cold for awhile, he’s now sitting on my bench.

Back to 4 after mr Byrd came through for us. I figured I was leaning too hard on the yanks, and DragBunt swayed my choice, and the favourable matchup. Too bad the cubs decided not to show up this afternoon.

Dave “Grande Amigo” Feldman – Welcome to the club of those who had a pick who could not miss that day – but did not get a hit. My welcome to this club was an 0-fer by Johnny Damon on a day last year when I thought he would go 4 for 5.
tenten25 – You picks look good – GL

yanksgiants, I know how you feel. I had Swisher for the simple fact Yanks were scheduled to face Guthrie. I left it because I felt Swisher would come through but oh well. I’m back at 1 again as Byrd got his hit.

dragbunt104, thanks! I’ve never done Survivor or HR Beat The Streak, and I just started Regular Beat The Streak June 3rd, so I’m a rookie at this stuff. My 6 game streak had to be restarted when Raburn went 0-3 Wednesday. :-(
Again, thanks for the input! Anyone else have a say about my picks?

I think Prado maybe the new Ichiro as he is very consistent. Ichiro although having a good year Avg. wise, is having more 0 fers. Ichiro hardly ever had 2 games in a row that were 0 fers. But this year he’s has become more human. Has anyone else notice that Ichiro may not be the go to guy anymore?

Oh and thanks 00liber too! I totally missed your comment, sorry!
I agree with what you said about Pena and Jackson. I decided to give the rookie a shot.
Very surprised to see that a lot of people pick the Tigers to win in Survivor tonight. I wish I would have! See, this is what I get for not picking my favorite, everyone else does! CURSE YOU FATE!
Again, if anyone else has a say about my picks, feel free to voice your opinion!

“I’m back at 0 and have nothing to lose. I’m picking Jeter to get back to 1. I still can’t belive that the Orioles switched pitchers on such short notice or I would not have put 17 on Swisher who I had taken because I had seen Guthrie listed for yesterday.”

I looked after all the games were over for the previous day and Arrieta was already up there, so maybe you should wait closer to the day of game to make your picks for said day.

“Dave “Grande Amigo” Feldman – Welcome to the club of those who had a pick who could not miss that day – but did not get a hit. My welcome to this club was an 0-fer by Johnny Damon on a day last year when I thought he would go 4 for 5.
tenten25 – You picks look good – GL”

Ichiro was 1 for his last 12.

No clue why you would use him unless you were back at 0 and/or under 3 and had him as your “jumpstart pick.”

A note for HR bts, Toronto is in Colorado. Worth checking out Saturday and Sunday. Borbon was a great sleeper for today, but there’s about 6 guys in Texas i’d still use before him. Who knew Ichiro was human anyways? Don’t ever remember him going 1 for 12, let alone the 1-15 he went during the series. So 10+% were willing to bank on that not happening. I would of went with him too but Cano just had a stretch of 9 hits in 12 AB’s so couldn’t pass on that. The jumpstart pick stops at 3 for the same reason you can only pick 10 games ahead, so you have to keep coming back. They don’t want to make it too easy.

I hate this game: I’m sitting here on a Friday night in Dallas, TX with the Rangers on TV and all I can bring myself to do is sit at my computer making sure that Kevin Youkilis DOESN”T get a PH opportunity.

Saturday – Here we go again
Going with Cano but something in the back of my mind is saying M Young v. Parra(?)
HR BTS – Vlad G who hit a big HR in Milwaukee last night.
Miller Park in Mil is a hitters park and HR park.
Survivor – NYY (Rodriguez is beatable) Yankee Stadium is a good hitters park in daytime per Vinny and Cano could go deep too. So could Carlos Lee
tenten25 – Many ways to play the game but I like to go against pitchers who are medicore staying away from the big guns.

Survivor: NYY may be suspect, but HOU just can’t rack up runs easily. I like NYY over HOU; however, went out of the box with my streak of 1 and opted for CLE.
BTS: Wonder if both leaders take the can’t-miss pick of F.Lewis; though there is no such thing as “can’t miss”, we know that ;)

Going to end up going with Jeter to give me something to do in the afternoon. I thought Prado would be the “can’t miss” player today. Wright would be my sleeper. I would go with Cano but it looks like he’s been losing his swing the past couple games. Not to mention the ice cold Posada is suppose to be his protection. GL

So much for “can’t miss” picks for today. Lewis got 2.5% and Prado got 2.0%. Ludwick over Holiday? A-rod is injured, isn’t Youk too? Braun and Cabrera have been cold, but i guess we can’t really expect them to stay cold. Interesting top 15 today. Mauer and Young as the leader’s picks.

Jeter 1st inning HR. So if I extend my streak tomorrow I’m highly debating on if I should pick somebody who probably won’t start or get a PH appearance. With only 8 teams playing & half of the teams having players I don’t even like picking for BTS I might try to skip it.

In my above comments I mentioned another off day. On average about 20-25% Top2500 get reset daily, meaning 75-80% move on. A really good day is between 10-15% reset, 85-90% move on. Bad days are above 30% resets IMO.

Went with Jeter today. Hoping Cano wouldn’t get a hit. Well, he just got the cheap hit just now. When you’re hot, it just rains for you. Have you noticed Cano slowdown since the absence of A-Roid? It could be a coincidence but A-Roid really gives Cano a lot of good pitches to hit. Pitchers can only pitch around so much.

@rip2thecompetition: No one will feel anything but pure joy if they make it to 57; don’t fool yourself. The only thing you risk by purposely making a safe no-pick, this early in the season, is that others tied with you can move above you. Remember that it’s a sprint to 57 — first come first served; no 2nd places. If anything, you’d feel suicidal if one those tied with you got to 57 one day ahead of you!!! On the other hand, the $10K consolation prize is a marathon, best score at end of the season

@lavolpe lol u’re right about feelin’ anything but pure joy…& that would be an awful scenario but it’s so hard in this game to reach 57 I’m only worried about my own streak, don’t really feel like it’s a race.

Hmmm, TOR-COL game in jeopardy of rain out? My pick is from that game & will be a bit miffed if it doesn’t go at least 5 innings. When picks locked, picks page said “Cloudy”. This could be 2nd time picks page lied to me; gotta remember to check weather.com and stop relying on MLB’s pick page.
@rip2thecompetition: Well, it is a race. The scenario I mentioned happening would be against astronomical odds. One player getting to 57 is one thing, but 2 getting there within a day of each other; slim to no chance at all.

tenten25 – Go to the MLB home page and see the word Schedule in the red bar near the top of page and click there.
You now are at the schedule page, put your cursor over the name of a pitcher and a box appears with a description of how that pitcher has done recently. Helps to know who is hot and who is not among pitchers.
You have all your “eggs in on basket today” with Tigers.
Cabreba could homer on any given day.
Boesch has been hot.

dragbunt104, thank you for your continued comments.
I figured I should stick with my favorite team seeing as only Carlos Pena was a winner of my picks. Austin Jackson was not the best idea yesterday, and the Twins ended up beating the Braves.
Plus, if the Tigers beat them yesterday, why not see if they can do it again today! Couldn’t hurt, right?
Any other opinions?

“So much for “can’t miss” picks for today. Lewis got 2.5% and Prado got 2.0%. Ludwick over Holiday? A-rod is injured, isn’t Youk too? Braun and Cabrera have been cold, but i guess we can’t really expect them to stay cold. Interesting top 15 today. Mauer and Young as the leader’s picks. ”

Maybe I am missing something, but why would Lewis be a “can’t miss pick today”?

He has middling numbers in general and is cool lately.

I thought we said we should stay away from Holliday, so Ludwick over Holliday is not surprising.

“On the other hand, it may be just me but I think I’d feel a little guilty if I skip a day on purpose & then happened to make it to 57.”

I would not.

That just cancels the injustice of them requiring your player getting 1 hit in each game of a doubleheader, but then only getting credit for a 1 point increase.

If you have any inside info on your home team about a player getting hurt soon, you might want to hurry up and put him in, before the announcement is made official and he is removed from the pick screen.

champion_88: “Maybe I am missing something, but why would Lewis be a “can’t miss pick today”?
He has middling numbers in general and is cool lately.
My answer: I was looking at Coors field (big ballpark), Lewis hit in previous 2 games, 6 for 7 lifetime agianst pitcher who is allowing far more hits than innings pitched, and Lewis is the lead-off hitter with respectiable AVG and finally, a righty-lefty matchup. I looked at all that and said to myself: can’t miss and he didn’t.

Since all but one game is over I thought I would share my thinking for tomorrow’s pick. Texas has been lighting it up lately and even though it was against a terrible Seattle team, they are hitting the ball pretty well. I think I’m going to go with Josh Hamilton as he has been hitting well lately and there is the favorable lefty-righty match-up. Plus, the game is in Milwaukee so that means the potential at bat in the ninth. What does everyone else think?

While Miguel did not hit a HR yesterday (it’s ended up being Carlos Guillen), both Boesch and the Tigers came through! This being said, I will continue with my Tigers theme and bet on a sweep today. Armando Galarraga’s starting for them, and I’m positive he’ll win.
Here are Sunday’s Picks:
BTS: Miguel Cabrera
HR: Brennan Boesch
Survivor: Tigers over Pirates
Any opinions?

@Goober – Texas has been hot but with a lot of mediocre pitchers going around today, i don’t think choosing a slugger who strikes out a lot against a strikeout pitcher is a particularly good option.
@tenten25 – I actually like Boesch as the more likely option to get a hit too, Cabrera has been in a slump (2 hits in last 6 games) and you always risk the intentional walks late in the game. Tigers should win though.

Yes! The Captain came through for me. If you look at Moehler, his #s are downright awful against righties. I know it was a risk picking Jeter against righties this year as he has mediocre #s against them but at home & during the day, he kills both sides.

I am hoping the downfall of Cano today. Yesterday he got a lucky hit. Cano did not hit well during the day at various stretches this year. Plus, he doesn’t have A-Roid protection now. He got Teix “protection”. LOL!

I guess tomorrow will be The Great Event in BTS. Most likely will have to go with Ichi and hope he squeals away a hit somehow from Wainwright. That will be tough. I mean everyone will need a good luck tomorrow.

@tenten25: Do your own homework, don’t let others sway you so easily. They may end up being right, but this game is a game of chance not statistical certainty, go with your gut based on some of the stats. If you make your own pick and fail, it is easier to live with than going along with popular majority and not getting a hit, but your 1st instinct does. JagX has a great streak going right now, but odds are that he will fail before too long.
@JagX: no jinx intended — hope you get to 40 before your luck runs out.

Thanks for the advice jagx. I agree that going with a batter who strikes out a lot against a pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters probably isn’t a good choice but I feel that Hamilton is on a good streak right now and I am going to stick with him. Again I appreciate the feedback though and any time it is definitely welcome. GL to all today.

“Since all but one game is over I thought I would share my thinking for tomorrow’s pick. Texas has been lighting it up lately and even though it was against a terrible Seattle team, they are hitting the ball pretty well. I think I’m going to go with Josh Hamilton as he has been hitting well lately and there is the favorable lefty-righty match-up. Plus, the game is in Milwaukee so that means the potential at bat in the ninth. What does everyone else think?”

Gallardo is starting for the Brewers, so I would avoid the Rangers in general.

Lavolpe, I see what you mean, and thank you. Honestly, I was thinking about going with Boesch as my BTS pick all along, but I’ve never picked the same guy twice in a row, so I was a bit tentative. I do have faith in both Cabrera and Boesch, but jagx made an excellent point with the intentional walks. I have yet to see Boesch get walked intentionally, so he would have a better chance at getting a hit specifically based on that. This is why I changed my choices back. Again, thank you for the words of wisdom.

@Tenten25 and goober85: No problem, just as lavolpe said though, only change if it’s your decision after a little research and such. To be honest i don’t even want to glance at the tiger game knowing i helped sway your pick, hope it works out!
@ lavolpe: Thanks. Hope i don’t get jinxed either! A-rod hasn’t been ruled out to pinch hit. Don’t expect it cause of the match up but the Astros are currently up 1-0 still.

@champ88: Good observation regarding Top2500 stats. Today, there are 99 picks where batters were picked 5x or less. This is nearly 2/3 of the batter count, but only 8% of the total percentage.
FYI: When the number of picks get above 150, I notice more and more safe “no-picks”; those that will not play (like A-Rod), those already on the DL, and in some cases players in games that aren’t even playing (possible with the new jump-start pick feature). For today and looking at just the top 25 picks: A-Rod, Hardy, O-Dog, J.Clement, O.Santos tally 9% of the total picks as safe-ish no-picks.
NYY-HOU: tied. Jeter & Cano both have hits. Look to STL/DET for any major streak squashers.

Monday – 4 games
Take a hard look at Wolf of Brewers – he is hittable and give up many HR’s. Wolf surrendered 5 HR’s in his last outing. Also, Cardinals at home v. M’s= Survivor Pick that looks good.
Ichirio v. Wainwright – I hope the Man from Japan gets a hit but won’t have my streak riding on it.
Wierd Factoid for Monday – With only 4 games it is a remote possibility that no one hits a home run and the entire HR BTS field is set to zero. Wolf of BrewCrew should prevent this from happening.
Do the Orioles play the Astros in interleague play this year?
If they do would either team win the game?

Ok. So who is everyone going with tomorrow? I guess Ryan Bruan and hope for the best that Saunders does is not in his top form. Thank goodness at least that they’re not playing in Milwaukee. Bruan’s #s @ home would have made the pick lot more risky.

Cubs v. White Sox yearly series is called the “Crosstown Classic” Wrigley Field on north side of Chgo and US Cellular Field “The Cell” is on south side of Chgo. So this year they get a sponsor for the “Crosstown Classic” and a trophy will go to the team that wins the series. Get ready LOL, the sponsor is BP, our British oil spill friends. It is now known as the “BP Crosstown Classic.” Crazy – Will anyone actually pick up this toxic trophy?

Well, I’m back up to 3 thanks to Robbie but I have Hunter on Monday. Angels are playing Brewers and Hunter is one of the hot bats on the Angels and I’m not going to change my pick. I have Cards in Survivor and Pujols in HR BTS. I know French is picking but seems like he will go deep tomorrow.

champion_88 – You post the strongest pick for Survivor but it is after the game closes for the day. Who is your “strongest pick of the day for Monday?” Please post now as the game closes noon eastern time on Monday. Is there a strategy that you are employing that you could share with the bloggers? Cards at home look good v. M’s on Monday and LAA at home are hot v. BrewCrew
Thanks……..
Monday = LAA Aybar v. BrewCrew & Wolf – Looks promising as Wolf got ripped for 8 earned runs his last time out by my hometown dormat team the Cubs. Will someone in the dugout please give Cub skipper Piniella a hot foot and wake him up.

So which lefty from Giants for tomorrow? Huff? I don’t have good feelings about going against Wolf. He is a capable pitcher who is due for a good outing. I remember him from last year. He didn’t give many hits.

I thought about Posey but he is a righty. Tillman has problem with lefties plus I am not sure if Posey will be in the line-up tomorrow. He was 0-fer 2 days already and SF has the most unpredictable line-ups. There infield is a revolving door of diff. players.

“Cubs v. White Sox yearly series is called the “Crosstown Classic” Wrigley Field on north side of Chgo and US Cellular Field “The Cell” is on south side of Chgo. So this year they get a sponsor for the “Crosstown Classic” and a trophy will go to the team that wins the series. Get ready LOL, the sponsor is BP, our British oil spill friends. It is now known as the “BP Crosstown Classic.” Crazy – Will anyone actually pick up this toxic trophy?”

“champion_88 – You post the strongest pick for Survivor but it is after the game closes for the day. Who is your “strongest pick of the day for Monday?” Please post now as the game closes noon eastern time on Monday. Is there a strategy that you are employing that you could share with the bloggers? Cards at home look good v. M’s on Monday and LAA at home are hot v. BrewCrew”

hey, sorry, I just got this post now.

the picks locked tonight at 7 PM though, not noon.

the strongest pick of today was the Angels, but the Cardinals and Giants were also close.

for Survivor, there were actually good picks for today, as opposed to BTS.

“I thought about Posey but he is a righty. Tillman has problem with lefties plus I am not sure if Posey will be in the line-up tomorrow. He was 0-fer 2 days already and SF has the most unpredictable line-ups. There infield is a revolving door of diff. players.”

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