Art Hogan’s 2019 Target

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, joins Real Vision for the first time to spell out the headwinds and tailwinds for the S&P 500 in 2019. He reviews his outlook, considers risks to the thesis and provides a year-end target, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on January 17, 2018.

Comments

While I think Art and Brian did a great job. I think Brian could have asked more in depth questions, like “how does Central Bank liquidity play into your thesis?”. Not in a “gotcha way” to disorient Art, but to pose questions that are typically not asked by mainstream media.

Agree. Not much insight here. Has to be hard to find great interviews on a weekly basis. But on this video, you can save your time from watching unless you don't read the news and need to learn that headwinds are China, interest rates, Brexit, and the governement shutdown but that they are short turn and if one changes, market goes higher.

His S&P 2600 is a decent technical inflection point and it's above it. Will soon drop but that's a buy because stocks will indeed be supported above the lows and rise for 2019. Another major factor is the weak USD especially against EM which will support equities for both. The better trade is to long select emerging markets, or be long the spread between EM & SPY, like the smart money has been doing for 3-4 months and outperforming with double-digit positive returns. Stay that course.

Headwinds smeadwinds. This market is not driven by PE ratios, tax loss/ gain selling, or fundamentals. It has been and continues to be a Fed driven market pure and simple. No disrespect to the interviewer/ interviewee.

Great video, gave it a thumbs up even though I totally disagree with it. Very classy touch from both gentlemen re Jack Bogle. Lots of good points but Brexit etc. is not just going to go away. There is a lot of discontent that caused Trump, Brexit, Yellow Vests and until sane monetary policy is restored - with the initial disruption / reset that is very likely to cause - this just keeps building beneath the surface until it explodes. I think it has already started and what we’re seeing is a bear market rally.

Good practical discussion of the economic landscape and market. Sovereign, corporate and personal debt problems are major economic headwinds to me for a long time. Mr. Hogan addressed Italy, but RVTV has addressed the worldwide debt crisis and liquidity concerns in many videos. If other headwinds go well, keep some powder dry for approaching debt crisis. It will not go well. DLS

Another great video with Brian P.. good to see the other side of the spectrum after so many bearish views. I believe Q418 and Q119 should be mixed especially in cyclicals such as industrials, materials & energy as tighter fed and trade war must have weighted on business. Major market lows tend to be re-tested at least once, which will set the base for a multi month bottoming phase, before we rally back towards Q3/Q4, if indeed as Art H pointed trade war turns into tailwind, and Fed pauses. Then in 2020, may be complete new story as end cycle will come knocking at the door again..

All credit to Art and Brian for praising John Bogle. RIP. Regardless of your view on indexation and I personally think it has gone much too far and is now a real potential market black swan, you have to credit Bogle's vision and genuine regard and consideration for the small average investor, a vocation I am pleased to see RV is trying to emulate. I also like Art's arguments for the bull case on equities in 2019.