The reaction for Canuck fans wasn’t popular. Naturally, Hodgson has done lots of good things in Vancouver recently. But was he the guy that the Canucks wanted for the future?

Let’s look at Cody’s road to the NHL, starting with his selection in June of 2008:

As it was, the Vancouver Canucks took the Markham, Ont., resident with their 10th overall pick, despite concerns over his 5-foot-11, 185-pound size and average skating, because he oozes character and hockey smarts.

Although the team was hoping that youngsters Cody Hodgson and Michael Grabner would emerge as legitimate NHLers through training camp and the preseason, that clearly didn’t happen. It’s unfortunate, because there appeared to be an opportunity for one or both to stick and contribute.

Various back injuries limited the Vancouver Canucks prospect to just 24 games last season. On Thursday, his development was struck another blow when Hodgson took an errant stick to the face during practice with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. Early indication is he suffered a fractured orbital bone that could keep him out of the lineup for weeks.

To the Canucks refusing to give Hodgson the available second line centre spot out of camp:

Just when you were thinking that reason might prevail when it came to the treatment of young players in this organization, Vancouver Canucks head coach Alain Vigneault pushed it back into the twilight zone on Tuesday with his diss to the team’s ’08 first round draft pick Cody Hodgson.

Not only has the rookie forward proved he belongs in the NHL, he’s done so while adjusting to constant lineup changes.

Having been shuffled around all season long, Hodgson has gone from the second line to the third line, from centre to the wing and back. He’s played with multiple linemates while averaging just 13:44 of ice time per game (ranked 17th on the team).

But Hodgson still managed to produce six goals in January in big games. He scored the tying goal on a breakaway in Tuesday’s 3-2 victory over Chicago, and he counted two in Boston’s unfriendly confines and one against San Jose.

His strong January helps us forget where Hodgson was at this point last year. His name was frequently brought up in trade rumours and it didn’t look like he’d be on the team in anything more than a depth role.

But what happened in January? This has already been covered by Thomas Drance at Pass it to Bulis, but when we look at things that might impact a player’s value, it’s his boxcar numbers, particularly recently. Just as coaches think up matchups against players who may have scored a goal or two a game over the last week, managers tend to look at recent success.

There are two things here: Shooting percentage and offensive zone start rate.

The offensive zone start rate is key. It is the percentage of time a player started his shifts in the offensive zone. It has a clear effect on a player’s shot numbers, where the faceoff is, and that can impact his goal total. So, too, does a player’s shooting percentage.

I split Hodgson’s career into three clumps, his first 23 games, his next 23 games, and his last 24 games, which include all he’s played past January:

Ozone%

Shooting%

First 23

38.2%

9.3%

Next 23

63.6%

14.7%

Last 24

72.9%

22.9%

Hodgson has been starting far more shifts in the offensive zone and his shooting percentage has spiked. This is an unsustainable high for Hodgson, and, having drafted and being with Hodgson for all the injury concerns through the young part of his career, Canucks management know exactly what he is.

In fact, Edmonton Oilers blogger Tyler Dellow wrote the following about Jordan Eberle earlier this month, and how important Ales Hemsky was to making Eberle look good:

Jordan Eberle’s a pretty good prospect having an outstanding season. He isn’t as good as he’s looked this year. Ales Hemsky isn’t as bad as he’s looked. Getting rid of Hemsky, when he’s putting up better chance numbers despite playing more difficult minutes than Eberle strikes me as insane. Eberle’s due to cool off anyway. When Hemsky goes – and he seems obviously gone – it’s just going to get tougher for him. The Oilers are going to be further away from contending for a playoff berth.

Easy minutes, good bounces, and some good coin-flipping for third period goals meant that this run wasn’t sustainable for Hodgson. Eventually, he’d have to see minutes against tough players in tough situations, that Vigneault just didn’t trust him in, evidently.

For this year, this isn’t a player that the Canucks were going to trust in the postseason, and with the logjam up the middle, it’s best to deal him while his value is at the highest. Indications are that the Canucks really like Marc-André Gragnani and were able to deal for him and a player who is a Todd Bertuzzi-like specimen. Who knows if the Canucks could have got that sort of return a year ago or, if Hodgson cooled off, in a year or so when the Canucks would need to deal one of their centremen.

In the end, he was the odd man out, but he plays for Buffalo now. It isn’t the popular move, but perhaps one that had to be made now as opposed to later.

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