Rapid Reaction: Denver Nuggets 104 – Atlanta Hawks 88

Danilo Gallinari, SF27 MIN | 3-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 7 PTS | +9
Gallo seems to be getting healthier, but he clearly isn’t completely healthy yet. He did attack the basket more tonight than against OKC on Friday which was nice, but on a few of the drives he seemed to be lost once he got to the basket, which led to some awkward, tough shots. But he rebounded the ball well and just moved better tonight which is a good sign for the Nuggets.

Kenneth Faried, SF26 MIN | 5-11 FG | 0-0 FT | 13 REB | 0 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 10 PTS | +3
The final line looks much better that what Faried actually produced during tonight’s game. Five fouls in 26 minutes is entirely too many, and that doesn’t even take into account how many rotations Faried blew and how many times he left Josh Smith wide open around the court. Yes, Smith missed but the looks that he was given were way to open for such a streaky shooter and it wasn’t like Faried was roaming and providing good help. He also missed a few layups which as a hustle player who can’t really create his own offense, is not something that should be happening. The rebounds were nice but the rest of the game wasn’t.

Kosta Koufos, C21 MIN | 3-4 FG | 1-2 FT | 7 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 7 PTS | -3
In a game that featured so many blown rotations by Faried and McGee the impact of Koufos is really shown. He almost never misses the proper rotation and tonight saved his teammates who did plenty of times. Add in seven rebounds and seven points and Koufos continues to try and earn more playing time in important spots.

Ty Lawson, PG32 MIN | 6-11 FG | 4-4 FT | 1 REB | 8 AST | 3 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 18 PTS | +2
Lawson continued to play at a high level while controlling things for the Nuggets tonight and even continued to knock down a couple of threes. What really was nice to see about this game was that at no point did it feel like Ty completely took over any stretches yet his line at the end of the day showed a great impact, one of the true signs of great point guards.

Andre Iguodala, SG35 MIN | 5-8 FG | 0-0 FT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 12 PTS | +5
Yes the offensive numbers aren’t mind-blowing, but Iguodala continues to fill up the stat sheet night after night. Six rebounds, six assists, multiple deflections; Iggy has a great knack for doing all the little things that a team needs to win while letting other guys control the scoring load. The two threes are also nice to see from a guy who has struggled to shoot the ball this season.

Corey Brewer, SF28 MIN | 11-20 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 22 PTS | +17
Brewer did typical Brewer things and in a game that was as sloppy as this one it helped him post a nice scoring night. Twenty shots from Brewer is an awful lot, but most were in transition, wide open or taken after the game was really decided. His lob to Iguodala on the break was one of my favorite plays of the game too.

JaVale McGee, C17 MIN | 4-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 4 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 5 BLK | 1 TO | 9 PTS | +11
Yes, JaVale’s first half was magical. Great dunks, a couple great blocks it was the Pierre that all Nuggets fans see and love. But the second half. Oh, the second half. McGee was constantly out of position flailing away for blocks and in the process giving up open shots and rebounds. It was the perfect example of the two JaVales and why the Nuggets can’t quite always rely on him for heavy minutes every night.

Andre Miller, PG20 MIN | 2-4 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 9 AST | 2 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 4 PTS | +21
Miller was solid and unspectacular. He didn’t really force anything offensively and threw a few great passes to JaVale during his fantastic first half. In the ultimate display of how strange this game was though Miller tried to pull a move straight out of the And-1 Streetball tour on Jeff Teague and failed miserably. It was just a weird play in a weird game.

Wilson Chandler, SG27 MIN | 6-13 FG | 1-1 FT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 13 PTS | +19
Chandler played pretty good defense on Josh Smith, better than any other Nugget, and his offense was productive as well. Like with most other Nuggets it was a solid but unspectacular game.

George Karl
Karl had his team ready for this one and they took care of business against a team that was on the second night of a back-to-back and missing three rotation players. The Hawks seemed lifeless at times and Karl made sure that his team put the game away when they had the chance.

One Thing We Saw

That was weird: This game just felt strange throughout. There wasn’t a ton of energy on either side despite the teams running up and down the floor most of the night. Rotations were blown constantly, (I actually deducted a half a grade for each player who played major minutes tonight because of how bad they were blown), players missed layups, and the Nuggets turned the ball over 17 times and still scored 104 points. It was just a strange game.

Post navigation

solid. nice Corey Brewer night — seemed to be in the right place all night.

Nuggets come in waves. Nobody is going to want to play the Nugs in the playoffs. OKC, SA, and LAC are NOT slow-down, half-court teams…so if they try to slow it down they hamper themselves too. Should be interesting.

Need to get that 4th seed. Probable Memphis series will depend on how the games are reffed — home court will influence that heavily. Last Memphis-Denver game they allowed very physical play, which played into Memphis’s hands.

googergieger

Weird game. I don’t know, can’t complain about a blow out really. Just odd rotations and line ups. Hope Gallo can hurry up and get back to where he was. Quite a slump he’s hit. Fortunately, others have picked it up.

Outside of McGee it didn’t look like anyone had that strong a game. I know McGee didn’t have a better game than Lawson, Brewer, Chandler, etc, but when the kid came in during the first half he electrified the crowd and his team. I don’t know Atlanta is one of the more boring teams in the league to watch and I assume play. Maybe that is why the game felt weird. Hope we don’t come out lethargic when facing the Kings tomorrow. If we don’t respect them and they get hot from beyond the arc(which always happens to any team facing us) they can beat us. Have to go on a huge run and hope Memphis starts losing some games.

theo

Karl’s rotations clearly create drama here. The use of Javale, YMCA Dre, small ball lineups especially at the end of games, etc, etc.

Took a look at some interesting numbers from 82games.com that shed some light. Gonna be a little longer and about stats, so if you want twitter length or gut takes, you should skip this.

One of the sections on the site is called “Five Man Units’ looking at the top 20 5 man units of every team in depth. Individual players are routinely graded in box scores on a plus/minus basis—basically, how much did they contribute to the win or subtract from it. 82games uses the same plus/minus approach but applies it to whole 5 man rotations. In other words, they’re breaking down which 5 man units, when playing together, contribute the most to success.

Relevant numbers for the Nugs:

The top 5 man unit is the starting lineup with a +84. No other lineup is even close.

5th most effective unit is Dre, CBrew, Chandler, Gallo and Javale @ +18. 6th most effective at +17 is the unit with Ty, Dre, Ig, Gallo and Kosta. Beyond these 6 units the numbers drop off dramatically.

If any of those combos are on court, at least statistically speaking, we’re on the way to a win. Other units? Time to cover your eyes or sell your season tickets.

The worst lineup by far? Starting lineup with McGee instead of Kosta @ -33, and in general, any lineup with Manimal and McGee on court at the same time.

Interestingly, while 2 of the top 6 units have both Dre Miller and Ty on court at the same time, the 2nd and 3rd worst units also have Ty and Dre on court together.

Re small lineups, 5 of the 6 effective units feature one true big and our usual assortment of athletic tweeners. The 2nd most effective is a completely small ball unit. Our most effective units are basically tweener ball—my preferred term for what most here call small ball–with one traditional big or even smaller ball with no true bigs.

I’ll make some takes on the numbers in a second post just to break up the visual length.

Ban Johnson

It’s interesting, but the sample sizes are pitifully small for all but the starting lineup:
+24 for a five-man unit in less than 100 minutes could just be statistical white noise…as could -24.

In short: The Nuggets just don’t have consistent enough rotations beyond the starting lineup to make any sort of definitive conclusions based on 5-man stats.

The ONLY thing that seems pretty clear is that Faried and McGee together doesn’t work…but even that is based on pretty small sample sizes. +The fact that they’ll never improve together if they don’t play minutes together…

Please tell me again the deeply rational reason why Karl almost never plays Koufos to close a game…

theo

Some observations based on the 82games.com numbers mentioned in my earlier post:

Contrary to a lot of discussion here, Ty and YMCA Dre are very effective on court together though it depends on who runs with them. Two of the Ty/Y units rock the oppo, while the two evil Ty/Y combos get rocked. Two points at a time haters have a point and are probably reacting to evil Ty/Y units, but the love two points at a time crowd have an even stronger case since the good Ty/Y 5’s get more minutes.

The coaching staff, at least statistically speaking, has every reason not to start McGee and make sure he and Faried don’t share court time at this point in their careers and development. Two major defensive liabilities down low at one time, at least for now until both develop, isn’t going to get it done.

Data also shows Karl may know more about rotations than some here believe. Strong reasons to play Ty/Y together, keep Javale coming off the bench and away from Manimal, and go small, even at the end of games. On the other hand, the numbers show he gives significant minutes to some really dreadful 5 man units. Part of that is he can’t play the 6 effective lineups continuously–some players would have to log 45 or even 48 minutes a night to make that happen. Still, a head scratcher that fuels the fire Karl crowd.

Re Y, like Ig, he’s part of 5 of the effective 6 units, so he may not be the ‘problem’ that some make him out to be here. Ig may play a bigger positive role than some realize too.

Gallo’s a part of all 6 effective units. Keep that guy on the court. Chandler is the X factor. I’d guess these effective lineups would look different if he hadn’t missed so much of the season. With Gallo out recently, we’ve seen Ill Will’s real value over the last week or so.

Anyway, just stats and no match for the insightful eyeball, but thought this might create more light and reduce some of the heat.

googergieger

Well again, plus/minus is good except when it isn’t. I feel you might be being glib on the what is up with the Karl rotations crowd.

Tonight for instance during a stretch, Ty, Dre, Brewer, Chandler, and Faried. No Gallo nor Iggy. No big. I think for the opening moments of the fourth till the five minute mark. Ty, Dre, Brewer, Chandler, and Faried. Granted it worked well enough in the end, but lots of time the rotations and substations are head scratchers. Another problem is also when he takes some guys out, it ruins their whole night. Especially when you take into account when they are brought back in.

Someone did an article way back when on why Miller and Ty playing big minutes together isn’t a bad thing. Well like a month or two ago they did it. The complaints were the fact he always goes with it, no matter what is happening. That in a deep team like ours, he seems unwilling to go with the hot hand and just go with who he favors. Which is true. Everyone knows, Karl plays favorites. Always has. Always will.

But yes 82games is a nice site, I use when trying to explain to people why Gallo is painfully underrated by most, though apparently the new stats on NBA.com are better for all that.

Oh and I don’t think McGee should start this year. Too late for that(should see more minutes when he is playing great however, which he has been since the break). But comparing his one hundred minutes with our starting line up to Koufos’s six hundred minutes, seems a bit unfair.

theo

Dude, we blew them out. Once again, like most of the rotation drama types, you micro analyze substitution patterns even in games we dominate. What are you looking for? The rotations are only good if we win by 50?

I’m giving you respected stats on 5 man rotations to help bring some numbers to the mostly intuitive gut reactions here. The numbers validate Karl’s approach. Few NBA coaching staffs even pay attention to stats like these, but the Nuggets aren’t one of them. Maybe the myth of counter cultural Karl that coaches via karma and intuition is just that, a myth. At you Ban.

googergieger

“I don’t know, can’t complain about a blow out really. “-in post you replied to originally.

Sigh.

http://twitter.com/xantoniooo808x D3Ntilthe3ND

& you wonder why people call you a troll, Theo…

dynamo.joe

You shouldn’t compare the number that way. It is not mathematically valid.

Take those +/- numbers, divide by the minutes and then multiply by some reasonable per game minutes (30, 36, or 48 would be the common examples).

Also the big problem with this data is that the sample sizes are really small except for the starting lineup. You probably want 150+ minutes before you start trusting them and maybe 500+ minutes before you start thinking ‘yes, I believe this to be the truth’.

For the Nuggets coaching staff, they should look at the line ups at the top and try to get them enough time to really evaluate them.

Nathan

I agree with you about making the data per 48 minutes, as well as about smaller sample sizes being unhelpful. Where is the data for each of the per 48 minute breakdowns by lineup just by their actual time played together? I would like to see how the lineups look when you compare the per 48 minute to the amount they are actually played.

Basically, are lineups that don’t carry their weight getting more time on the court than lineups that are performing at a higher level? According to the per 48 minute data, the Miller, Faried, Gallo, Iguadala, Koufos is the best lineup. Are they playing the most? (I’m guessing not since Ty is starter).

dynamo.joe

What you see there is that our starting lineup with YMCAndre substituted in for Lawson is a blowout generating machine. Which makes a certain amount of sense, cuz Ty only recently started playing well.

The top 4 lineups which are markedly better than 5-20 all contain Gallo and Miller.

If you want hockey lineups, there is a Miller-Fours-Jham-Randolph-Moz lineup that is better than our starting lineup (but probably only played garbage minutes, so take it for what you will).

Hahah, Dynamo you must be in Hawaii or something because you were up late making these (I know I was up late/early). Regardless, interesting stuff. That’s not to say that this would be the end all statistic or anything, but I think any stat is helpful if you can glean the right information from it. Sample size obviously affects this data quite a bit, as well as matchups against opponents (which we don’t have- but would be really powerful data).

Nathan

(1)I think these numbers probably inflate how strong the bench is compared to our starters because our bench is considered to be one of the deeper ones in the game. That doesn’t mean they should necessarily be the starters over who currently is- our bench might not perform well against another team’s starters.
(2)The data doesn’t have anything to say about opponents. It feels like it is missing so much potential without the matchup information.
(3)A lot of this data is with a really small sample size- and is thus more prone to matchups and is also therefore less statistically significant.

Not criticizing your work- I really appreciate all the numbers you posted. I am just trying to dig a little deeper and understand strengths and weaknesses with the data.

Nathan

*Faried playing with McGee seem to be Kryptonite for the Nuggets (according to the data).
*The worst lineups seem to play the least, with the exception of the Lawson-Iguodala-Gallinari-Faried-McGee lineup which has over a 100 minutes.
*Based on this data I can’t argue that McGee should be starting over Koufos (who is probably playing against tougher opponents as a starter).

Scott

If only Corey could’ve finished that Gallo assist… Assist of the year for sure.

heykyleinsf

Loved it.. even though it wasn’t a score..
I love that stuff.
Especially at home.. the crowd would
have just erupted.

My bet?
We’ll see it again with the conversion intact.

charles801

sixth time this year with 70 or more points in the paint for the Nuggets.
I don’t believe anyother team has even one game with those numbers.

The return of Chandler seems to have propelled Brewer into a better/smarter level of play. Brewer now knows if he messes around, Chandler will take his minutes in a heartbeat. I assure you this is the kind of scenario Masai was hoping would take place by building this kind of team. A bunch of great guys on the bench promotes great competition which promotes stronger play.
Also, I’ve been waiting for this game because a lot of people were hoping for Josh Smith at the trade deadline. I wanted to see how he and Chandler matched up, and I want to say I thought Chandler did a mighty fine job. I bring this up because not only did many people want Smith, but they wanted to persuade the Hawks into a trade by throwing in Chandler. In a world without a salary cap would I want Smith over Chandler? Absolutely. In the current NBA world we live in? I’d take Chandler over Smith any day with their respective contracts (and what Smith is surely to get on the open market this summer which is upwards of $12 mil per year) smh.
Another thought. Gallo really is the epitome of a “rhythm shooter”. He seems to take forever to recover from any kind of injury, so I’m not too concerned about his slump. Great job boys.
Final note…

magster

Boring game, frankly. Almost more worried about losing tomorrow than I am about losing to LAC.

Making this streak last up to @ Chicago (11 games) is almost likely.

Nugznazty

I know your daughters name.

Nugznazty

creepin you margabelle!

googergieger

Koufos gives up at least five mid range jumpers to Horford without a hand in his face and is the only rotation player in the minus colum.

Just saying Matt.

McGee had a great first half.

Koufos had a good second one.

Ackdog

Yeah and Gallo and Chandler have the same grade??? To be honest Gallo has stunk the joint up since returning from injury. If he is still injured he shouldn’t be out there… just saying

Stephen H

You’re a terrible grader matt how does McGee only get a c+ and not an a for brewer or lawson new grader needed.

Ackdog

Karl gets an A even though his team was flat and the rotations were strange???? New grader for sure, the grader cannot have bias when grading……

Matt

A couple things that may answer your questions. First everyone who played major minutes tonight was docked a half a grade because of how bad the entire team blew rotations. The Hawks got a ton of wide open looks tonight and they just missed, a lot of which had to do wtih second night of a back to back and missing a couple of rotation players. But if you bump up peoples grades JaVale gets a B- and Lawson and Brewer A-‘s.

Second why should JaVale get higher than a B-. His second half was terrible. He missed a sweeping hook and was constantly out of position due to block chasing. I really like JaVale but it wasn’t good at all.

Finally I don’t subscribe to the just because the Nuggets win someone has to get an A or A+ theory. I didn’t think they played all that well last night but they won. It happens and my grades are based on that. I mean Brewer missed 9 shots and all 3 of his threes so he wasn’t perfect and Ty missed only one less shot than he made so he wasn’t either.

Trip

I probably seem to come across as a KK hater, but i do like when he helps this team out. With that being said, I do not personally agree with KK getting the same grade as Lawson. Koufas let Horford do pretty much whatever he wanted, making easy mid range shots getting to the glass at will, and Koufas is just so unspectacular on offense. I know he only played 2 minutes in garbage time but Mozy had a pretty sweet drive from the foul line and a nice lay in to finish it.

BOB

Here’s some advice to help you enjoy the game recaps better. Read the thoughtful commentary on each player’s performance and don’t look at the grade. Problem solved. The grade is just a wrapper. No nutrients and not worthy of comment.

Ackdog

Okay Bob here you go. Gallo rebounded the ball well(5 rebs) otherwise he played like a one legged duck. Faried rebounded well(13 boards) outscored Gallo(who is supposed to be able to create his own shot) and got into foul trouble which means he was contesting the play and he gets a full grade lower??? C’MON MAN!

By the way they played the same minutes. This dude is biased which in my opinion shouldn’t be allowed as a grader. He is very harsh on Faried a second year player and lets Gallo slide who is in his fifth year. I like them both but this dude is not a fair grader.

I do read the commentary and I can say what I like as long as it is in good tastes UNCLE BOB!

Matt

Ackdog,

I like Faried a lot, as a fellow NJ native I root for him to succeed, but to say he played well tonight is ingoring the game. Sure he had 13 rebounds but 3 were on one play where he missed 4 shots from right in front of the rim. He also grabbed one other offensive rebound on his own missed layup. Take those four away and he has 9 rebounds and 5 fouls. Is that impressive? Then add in how lost he looked on defense which was a bigger part of the 5 fouls then his effort contesting shots, two were reach ins when he should have stepped in to cut off a drive. Faried is a great energy guy but he sturggles with some things and defense is one of them. tonight he struggled. I have faith he will turn it around but his grade had to reflect the quality of play tonight.

Joshua

You don’t have to defend your grades. They are well-thought out and usually reflect a players entire game quite accurately. A performance can be interpreted completely different by others. Does that make the original perspective flawed? No. People need to contribute to the conversation instead of hating on an arbitrary grade.

Joshua

The biggest takeaway this game for me was Lawson picking up the team when it looked like Atlanta was going to comeback. The nuggets really need someone to step up to the plate and be that guy who can carry the team during tough stretches. I love how Lawson’s confidence has been growing the past month. Really need the nugs to take care of business tonight. If the nugs want to get that 4th seed, they need to beat bad teams on the road.

Joshua

oops, meant this to be a new post and not a reply.

Ackdog

Sorry Joshua giving the teacher a shiny red apple doesn’t score you any points. Teachers, graders, forum admin, whoever or whatever you want to call them put themselves out there. When you crtique others your opinion becomes open slather for others to agree or disagree with That’s the whole point of a forum.

By the way I agree with you on Lawson. When the Nuggs were struggling the dude willed his way to 7 consecutive points. The Karl pulls him for Miller. I know it was for rottion purposes but when the team was struggling I thought it was quite strange

Ackdog

Thanks for the reply Matt. My problem with the grades is that Gallo got a full grade higher than Faried. That doesn’t add up for me. A lot of people on this forum tend to treat Gallo with kid gloves. This guy is arguably our top player and if not top our second best player. Since returning from injury he has stunk up the joint. If Faried gets a C- which is barely a pass then Gallo deserves the same grade. If Gallo isn’t 90+% then let the deepest bench in the NBA fill in while he recovers. In my opinion of course

Native Nugget

If you take away the injuries and look at the last 20 games, the Nuggs really have taken a step forward. We’re beating good teams and more consistently winning the games we are suppose to. And that’s in spite of our many faults. If we can improve our shooting and firm up our court awareness (naturally lacking on a young team) we have a shot to get to the conference finals (the optimism of a true homer but a guy can have dreams). I don’t expect it, but earlier in the season I would have thought us lucky to make the play offs.

Even his commentary and justification for grades isn’t good he definitely has a bias towards certain players.

Tom

Looking at the rest of the schedule, I see 5 more losses, @Chicago, @OKC, @SA, and 2 more of the following: LAC, SA, @Utah, @Milwaukee. Thus I think the Nuggets will go 16-5 the rest of the way, mainly because of the easy and home-heavy schedule. This would put the Nuggets at 55-27 for the season, which is slightly worse than many people predicted but should be good enough for the 4th-seed or maybe the 3rd-seed. I’d say the Nuggets have almost completely met my expectations for this season (so far).

Cephus

Wilson Chandler blocked G.G. on twitter ? He must have known about George trying to float a Stan Van G. trial balloon when Karl’s stock was low following those early season extended road trips from hell.

One thing I would like to expound earnestly on is that I like to click on opposing teams’ truehoop fan sites listed above to get their vantage points after Nugg games. This website here is so much better then all others seen so far ( i havent checked all yet ) in terms of quality fan input and in depth review of game. So thanks for all features here. Check Oaklahoma’s tru hoop website. Horrible.

Thomas

This site is becoming weaker by the day.

Charlie

Pretty nondescript bench win, if you will. The Nuggets have been doing it for years – the starters just sort of blah their way through a home game and the bench eventually blows the doors off with a big push.

Brewer was the guy tonight, doing wild stuff off the bench and going for 22pts on 20 shots. JR and Kleiza did it for so long and it’s cool to see Brewer putting his own spin on the role.

Nathan

I think it was Barkley who said last year before the playoffs when he chose Denver for the upset that the bench will win you one game in a series- and benches play better at home. I just thought it seemed silly at first glance but as I was watching the games I kinda started to agree with him.

Aaron

yes, strange game with low energy. . agreed.

But, really?? you give a C- to a guy with a double double? No A’s to any player, but one for Karl who “had them ready to play”.

I find this review to be way, way too negative. Sure, we could’ve come out and dominated more, but that’s the #4 team in the East over there. The fact that Smith and Horford didn’t dominate has SOMETHING to do with us. . not just them missing shots. Wow. . negative much?

NuggDr

How in fuck does Karl get an A and nobody else on the team does? Can we fire this teacher? Horrible grades, as usual.