Obama administration laying groundwork for immigration overhaul

Peter Nicholas and Tom HamburgerChicago Tribune

The punishing battle over health care is still unresolved, but the Obama administration is quietly laying plans to take up another issue that could generate even more controversy and political division -- a major overhaul of the nation's Immigration system.

Already, senior White House aides have privately assured Latino activists that the president will back legislation in 2010 to provide a road to citizenship for the estimated 12 million undocumented workers now living in the United States.

In addition to the citizenship provision, the emerging plan will stress increased efforts to harden borders to make illegal entry more difficult. But that two-track approach has been rejected in the past by Republicans and other critics who insisted that a border crackdown must demonstrate its effectiveness before any action on citizenship could be considered.

Embracing an Immigration bill is a significant gamble for the White House, which already has job creation, global warming and new regulations for financial institutions on the agenda for 2010.

Adding to the difficulty, polls show that the public is far more worried about the 10 percent unemployment rate and the fragile economy than anything else. By pushing an Immigration bill, Obama risks appearing out of step with the worries of the typical voter.

Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, said the issue is difficult in virtually any environment.

"We know from a lot of experience that Immigration reform has been and can be a very polarizing issue," he said. "And my sense from the public opinion research is people care more about vindicating their position than they do about getting the issue solved."

But the White House has apparently decided to press ahead, with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano designated to lead the effort.

As a presidential candidate, Obama vowed to take up Immigration in his first year in office. It's now too late to make good on that.

If they delay once more, Obama and congressional Democrats could anger the Latino voters who came out in force for them in 2008. Exit polls show Obama won two-thirds of the Latino vote in the 2008 election compared with 31 percent for his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

No one anticipates that a core element of the Democratic base will defect to the Republican Party next November. But even a significant drop in turnout -- which often happens in non-presidential elections -- could frustrate Democratic efforts to preserve their congressional majority.

"The bulk of the people needing Immigration reform are Latino," said U.S. Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz. "There's some frustration and disappointment, and if you don't give the Latino community a reason to participate (in the elections), you weaken your base even more."

Unlike health care, which has played out over most of a year, an Immigration bill would be constrained by a tight deadline. For a bill to have a realistic chance of passing, political analysts say, the particulars would have to be hashed out and agreed upon by spring.

Delay would increase the likelihood of the issue getting derailed by the November elections.

Henry Cisneros, a former Cabinet secretary in the Clinton administration who took part in a conference call with the White House, said: "It gets much more difficult as the year goes along."

An Immigration bill was introduced in the House earlier this month, and Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat who chairs a subcommittee on Immigration, is heading the effort to build a coalition in the Senate.

Schumer's office said he is working with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., to develop a bill and wants Graham to sign on as a co-sponsor. Graham's office did not return calls for comment.

Should an Immigration bill gain traction, White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel would likely become a central player in the negotiations.

As an aide to Bill Clinton, Emanuel co-wrote a memo showing great concern for the political dynamics of Immigration. Emanuel and Ron Klain, now the top aide to Vice President Joe Biden, wrote in 1994: "We must be seen as taking proper, forceful steps to seriously address the Immigration problem without alienating the Hispanic and civil rights constituencies."