West Texas Intermediate is trading above $50 a barrel and Brent, the global benchmark, is above $60. The collapse in oil prices is over and oil exploration and development companies can breathe a sigh of relief. Houston's economy is spared! Hooray!

Well, not quite.

Oil prices have been on the rise, but when Bloomberg took a look at the trading in futures, the rise doesn't so much indicate that traders think oil prices are going up. More realistically, there are simply fewer traders betting the price will go down.

That's a distinction that should give Houstonians pause because it signals there is likely a nearby ceiling for the price of oil that will not bring back the fat days of the last few years. The good news for those in the industry is that we could be getting closer to knowing what the new normal will be.

There was also news Monday about Japan's economy, which is growing 1.4 percent slower than many economists thought. Japan is a major purchaser of oil and natural gas, so a weak economy there means weak demand for oil and gas.

Then there are the growing inventories around the world. The oil hub in Cushing, Okla. is filling up and is expected to reach capacity in May. That kind of inventory means the glut is far from over.

Therefore the problems of excess supply and poor demand have not been corrected. Traders may no longer take seriously predictions of $20 a barrel oil, but that doesn't mean that $100 is round the corner.

The important point here is that watching the daily trade in oil futures may give us some insight into the market there are subtleties that deserve analysis.

Chris Tomlinson has written commentary on business, energy and economics for the Houston Chronicle since 2014. Before joining the Chronicle, he spent 20 years with The Associated Press reporting on politics, conflicts and economics from more than 30 countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe. He’s also the author of the New York Times bestseller Tomlinson Hill, and he produced the award-winning documentary film by the same name. Both examine the history and consequences of race, politics and economics in Texas.