Text Size

Digg/Buzz It Up

POLITICO 44

The polarizing health care votes cast late Sunday will have a profound effect on reelection campaigns across the nation, leaving a host of House Democrats—and a few Republicans—to explain or defend a politically treacherous vote that could determine control of the House come November.

Some members of Congress will end up with primary challenges as a result. Others may have signed their own political death warrant.

Here is POLITICO's rundown of lawmakers whose reelection prospects have been significantly imperiled by their announced support of—or opposition to—health care reform.

The tough-district Democrats

The most immediate blowback from the votes will be felt by Democrats in marginal and conservative-minded districts. They are now assured of being attacked as accomplices to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is not especially popular in many of those districts.

Of these members, many are in their first or second terms, and their path to Washington was greased by strong Democratic years in 2006 and 2008. Now, however, their support for the health care bill will put them in an unfamiliar defensive posture in an already tough year, without a popular Democratic presidential nominee leading the ticket or a GOP majority to campaign against.

Members in this category include Reps. Harry Mitchell of Arizona, Chris Carney of Pennsylvania and Baron Hill of Indiana, each of whom was elected in the 2006 Democratic wave and represents a seat that George W. Bush carried twice.

And virtually every freshman Democrat who won a marginal district in 2008 will need to mount a vigorous explanation of the benefits of a "yes" vote - especially members like Reps. Mark Schauer of Michigan and Dina Titus of Nevada, who won Republican-held seats.

Some veterans - among them nine-term Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who hails from solidly Republican North Dakota, and West Virginia Reps. Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall - will also feel the heat.

By the time the clock ticked down on the health care vote late Sunday evening, a handful of junior Democrats holding marginal seats had also cast 'yes' votes that will be the staple of GOP attacks, including Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Wisconsin Rep. Steve Kagen, Florida Rep. Ron Klein, and Illinois Reps. Bill Foster and Debbie Halvorson.

Two first-term women, however, stand out for being in extreme jeopardy: Florida Rep. Suzanne Kosmas and Colorado Rep. Betsy Markey, both of whom went from no on the November health care vote to yes in March and both of whom represent GOP-leaning seats that voted for presidential nominee John McCain in 2008.

After Markey announced her support for the bill last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee immediately blasted out an e-mail labeling her "Betsy Margolies-Mezvinsky" - a reference to former Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, who lost her seat in 1994 after taking a bullet for the party and casting a tough vote for President Bill Clinton's budget.

Some Democrats may be at risk, but I would not rule out the possibility that many ordinary voters will benefit from the legislation, particularly the immediate restrictions on patient-unfriendly practices of insurance companies. Furthermore, it is clear that Democrats will be energized by their victory. The Republican-predicted Republican avalanche at the polls may not materialize to the extent Republicans hope. As usual, seeing will be more accurate than predicting. In addition, there are times when principles lead to behavior that seems to be or is at odds with one's job. Resignation of government officials in response to policies they cannot support is one common example. In any case, no one can say the we have had a dull year in politics.

Arcuri, for one, lost the support of New York’s influential Working Families Party, which vowed not to allow him to run on its ballot line and said it would recruit an opponent to run against him in November.

Freshman Rep. Mike McMahon, another “no” vote who holds a Staten Island, N.Y.-based district that McCain won, is also facing the threat of losing the Working Families Party line. The Service Employees International

The Republicans are nothing but HYPOCRITES!! They talk out of BOTH sides of their mouths! This is all about MONEY, MONOPOLY and keeping the CASH-COW flowing for the private Insurance Companies. Universal Healthcare has been in Iraq compliments of President Bush for over 6 years and at the time the MAJORITY in BOTH houses were Republicans! None of them open their mouths to protest even though the American people will AND are paying for it. This is all about MONEY and the Republican pockets are full, thanks to the lobbyists for the same private Insurance Companies that will HAVE to change their tune! Anyone voting Republican, hold your noses because the stench is overwhelming!

Even though large tracts of America and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo/IRS and all the odious apparatus of Obama/Democrat rule, we shall not flag or fail.

We shall go on to the end, we shall fight for freedom, we shall fight in the voting booths, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the truth, we shall defend our land, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the phones, we shall fight on the internet, we shall fight in the town halls and in the streets, we shall fight in the our local governments; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, America or a large part of it were subjugated , then our citizens, armed and guarded by the Constitution, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the land of the brave and the FREE, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of all.

it doesn't matter whether a dem voted for it or not. it is obvious there are no moderate dems. americans know they need to rid themselves of dem rule, or we will have amnesty, carbon tax ,no drilling for our own energy , on and on and on. bye bye dems and rino's. and obama can kiss his veto goodbye too. these dems have no idea how big this is.

If most of this bill doesn't take effect until 2014 what about those 45000 people that die every year from not having health insurance. Are they getting something now before the services are even funded from all the money we wil save? I must not understand the math or all that hollering about all these people who are dying.

smellit, your president is a socialist and socialism leads somewhere where america doesn't want to go. if there are corporate criminals ,put them in jail. with charlie rangel and turbo tim geitner. you don't scrap the greatest economic system in history to go back to gulags, cause thats where socialism goes. dems are toast. get out the butter.

Kosmas represents the area ALOT of my family live..Florida Space coast. Everyone says she is a goner especially since she voted for Stimulus, voted no on HC in Nov., Obama destroyed her constituents with his budget literally turning the coast into a ghost town in a couple of years. So what does she do? She goes against a population that does not want HCR and already hurting she votes yes. What a weak weak representative. Bye bye Suzanne.

DeMint was right, today is Obama’s Waterloo, too bad Obama is actually Wellington. The GOP has expended far too much of their own political capital and are now (rightly) viewed by the majority of the electorate as the obstructionists they are. Bleat all you want, we are literally minutes away from the change that was campaigned on and promised. That hopey changey stuff is looking pretty good right now.all