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(albeit with a season-ending projected RPI of 54, which is not going to get the Gophers into the tournament. Probably need to do better than 1107 in the B1G)

This point by thatjanelpick is absolutely true. In fact, I'd say the Lady Gophers definitely need to do a lot better than 11-7 in the B1G to make the NCAA tournament.

The reason is the combination of our very weak non-conf schedule plus the fact that RPI is a totally bankrupt system for rating relative quality of basketball teams. The RPI score (the computed number that gets sorted to determine the RPI rank) is 3/4 composed of (how good our opponents are and how good our opponents opponents are). Only 1/4 of our RPI score is based on how good the Gophers are. Thus Gophers RPI score is only very approximately correlated to how good Lindsay and the Ladies are as a basketball team. Rather, it is mostly a measure of how good are the teams we (will have) played this year (in other words the strength of our schedule). Half of our SoS is just the strength of the B1G, and the other half of our SoS is the strength of our non-conf schedule, which is very weak both in absolute terms, and also weak relative to the non-conf schedules of other B1G teams.

Thus, since the statistically bankrupt RPI score is mostly a measure of quality of our opponents (and only 1/4 of a measure of the Lady Gophers basketball prowess), and the Gophers most probably have the weakest non-conf schedule in the B1G, that means that if we come in 5th place-ish in the B1G we still come in with the lowest RPI score in the B1G. Meaning we end up with the worst RPI ranking in the B1G. So the only way to bump up our RPI score (from a base of lowest relative to other B1G teams) is by winning a truckload of B1G teams, I conjecture that we need to go about maybe 14-4 in the B1G to get our RPI up to a point where the NCAA selection committee won't choke on it.

This is bad-news/good-news story. First the bad news. Accepting as largely true the statement by others in different thread that our non-conf schedule was mostly set by Stollings, that means that Stollings left us with the boat anchor around our neck of needing nearly immaculate play in the B1G in order to get an RPI better than a bubble team.

Now for the good news. I think the Gophers can hit the 14-4 mark or better in the B1G. Or perhaps we'll go 13-5 at worst, and the NCAA will throw another Bubble Party for us but we'll land on the Big Dance side of the bubble.

But the bottom line is, thanks to the uselessness of RPI as a measure of basketball-team quality, we need to be that much better of a team just to make it into the NCAAs. But once we get in, we could go far as long as we don't get an early bad matchup like the Oregon Ducks.

To further illustrate this point, note that the huge leap in our RPI ranking according tohttp://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_190_Women.html
is almost fully due to the fact that Syracuse has played and beat a lot of good teams, and only marginally due to the fact that we beat Syracuse per se. Now as we continue to play weak teams for a while, that will gradually dilute the benefit we got from playing/beating Syracuse, and our RPI score will fall as our RPI ranking gets worse and worse. RPI scores are bunched tightly together at the leaderboard so as RPI score falls rather gradually, RPI ranking will get worse more dramatically. Already now, our current active RPI ranking dropped a slot to 15th, and our projected end-of-season RPI ranking dropped to 58th, thanks to playing Air Force. Note that beating Air Force didn't help us much at all. The fact that we were Minnesota nice and agreed to play Air Force is what put a hit on our RPI, and the fact that we won only marginally reduced the bit of playing them. This will continue to happen as we (hopefully) win out the non-conf schedule, with the fact that we played them continuing to whack our RPI by diluting the benefit of playing Syracuse.

I'm not confident that the Gophers will finish 14-4 or 13-5 in BIG play. It's looking more and more like this is a "grind it out" team that is going to have to win with defense and toughness...and the athleticism of Bell and Bello. If Hubbard can get on the court ago, that should help, but we have to remember that she won't be able to solve all this team's deficiencies. The putrid non-conference schedule puts a lot of pressure on the Gophers...not only to win all of their remaining non-conference games, but to win a lot of conference games. The Syracuse game was a huge win. Boston College is probably the toughest remaining non-conference game, as it is a road game against a formidable opponent. The possible silver lining with this team is that they should be able to win some games while shooting poorly, with the solid defense, good rebounding and toughness they've shown so far this year. Last year offensively, the team had 3 good three point shooters in Wagner, Pitts, and Hubbard, and three guards that could get to the hoop in Wagner, Hubbard, and Bell. This year, with Wagner's graduation and Hubbard's injury, we're left with Pitts as the only consistent three-point threat (and she hasn't been shooting it all that well) and Bell as the only person who will consistently penetrate. (Brunson also does that occasionally, but not often enough.) It's looking more like a "grind it out year".

I think this team can win anywhere from 10-12 conference games, but obviously some things need to be addressed. First and foremost, the free throw shooting has to improve. They'll get to the line a lot because they're very aggressive going to the basket. Rebounding is also a strength, so they should be fine on the glass. Shooting percentage and offensive decision making are two areas of concern. I don't think they'll shoot an overly high percentage a lot of the time unless Hubbard magically comes back sometime this season.

One thing they do have going for them is their toughness and Bell's ability to make plays late in games. They'll never give up on a game or a quarter, so in theory they'll likely give themselves a chance to win almost every time out. Defensively they're pretty strong. More ball pressure than in the past and they seem to collapse on help-side in the post pretty well. Plenty of games will come down to grinding it out, but there will also likely be games where they shoot it a little better than they have. At this point, just looking for progression. If they can iron out a few things (most notably the charity stripe), they'll be fine imo.

Monday RPI listed first with Strength of Schedule and record through games of 12-9-18 following team name. I'll add that last season at this time our RPI was 59 and strength of schedule 208. (59 was 7th best in the B1G).

Monday RPI listed first with Strength of Schedule and record through games of 12-9-18 following team name. I'll add that last season at this time our RPI was 59 and strength of schedule 208. (59 was 7th best in the B1G).

I'm not confident that the Gophers will finish 14-4 or 13-5 in BIG play. It's looking more and more like this is a "grind it out" team that is going to have to win with defense and toughness...and the athleticism of Bell and Bello. If Hubbard can get on the court ago, that should help, but we have to remember that she won't be able to solve all this team's deficiencies. The putrid non-conference schedule puts a lot of pressure on the Gophers...not only to win all of their remaining non-conference games, but to win a lot of conference games. The Syracuse game was a huge win. Boston College is probably the toughest remaining non-conference game, as it is a road game against a formidable opponent. The possible silver lining with this team is that they should be able to win some games while shooting poorly, with the solid defense, good rebounding and toughness they've shown so far this year. Last year offensively, the team had 3 good three point shooters in Wagner, Pitts, and Hubbard, and three guards that could get to the hoop in Wagner, Hubbard, and Bell. This year, with Wagner's graduation and Hubbard's injury, we're left with Pitts as the only consistent three-point threat (and she hasn't been shooting it all that well) and Bell as the only person who will consistently penetrate. (Brunson also does that occasionally, but not often enough.) It's looking more like a "grind it out year".

Keep your fingers crossed that they avoid the injury bug.

Not only is having Hubbard a big help, the development of Mercedes Staples will be critical down the stretch. We need people who can stretch defenses. If Hubbard and Staples can be three-point threats, that would something.