Wednesday, April 18, 2012
7:07:00 PM EDT

Three Trades Triggered Today

by
James Brown

We had two bullish plays triggered and one bearish play triggered on Wednesday.
NTES also hit our exit targets. I am suggesting we close some trades with April options tomorrow. See play updates for details.

Current Portfolio:

CALL Play Updates

Cigna Corp. - CI - close: 48.21 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 46.95
Target(s): 52.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: up to the May 3rd earnings report.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/18 update: CI is still struggling with resistance in the $48.00-48.50 area. If you look at an intraday chart you can still see the bullish trend of higher lows.
The stock has yet to breakout to new relative highs. We are still waiting for CI to hit our entry point.

I am suggesting a trigger at $48.75 as our entry. We'll start with a stop at $46.95. The $50.00 level is short-term resistance but we're aiming for $52.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CI is bullish with a $60 target.

Trigger @ $48.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the May $50 call (CI1219E50)

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on April 12, 2012

Comments:
04/18 update:
Our new play on ESL is not off to a very good start. Shares rallied high enough this morning to hit our trigger to buy calls at $70.55 but the rally didn't last. The stock spent the rest of the session drifting lower. This failed breakout is troubling. We have a stop loss at $67.75.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: I cautioned readers that the bid/ask spread was a little wide. Now the spread has exploded wider. If this doesn't change we won't trade ESL again.

The plan was to keep our position size small because the option spreads are just a little wide.

Comments:
04/18 update:
FDO displays impressive relative strength with a +3.5% gain and a breakout past resistance. Our trigger to buy calls was hit at $65.35. Broken resistance near $65.00 should be new support.

We will raise our stop loss up to $63.75.
Our multi-week target is $69.75.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FDO is bullish with an $88 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $65 call (FDO1219E65) Entry $2.44

04/18/12 new stop loss @ 63.75
04/18/12 triggered at $65.35

Entry on April 18 at $65.35
Earnings Date 06/27/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on April 16, 2012

Comments:
04/18 update:
Now I am having seller's remorse for exiting our April calls a little early but I wanted to lock in a gain before they expired. ORLY added another +1.4% to close at a new high. Our exit target is $98.50 for the remaining May $90 calls. Readers may want to exit now and cash out.

Comments:
04/18 update:
UTLA displayed relative strength with a +1.1% gain. Shares tagged a new high intraday above $96.00. We're almost out of time. I am lowering our exit target to $97.00 just in case ULTA shoots higher tomorrow. However, we will exit this position tomorrow (Thursday) at the closing bell if shares don't hit $97.00 intraday. I am raising our stop loss to $92.75.

Stop Loss: 84.55
Target(s): 75.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -92.0%
Time Frame: up to the April 26th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/18 update:
BWA spiked down at the open but traders bought the dip. Shares closed in positive territory. Odds are we will see our April $80 puts expire worthless with just two days left until expiration.
I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small. The most recent data listed short interest at 16% of the 107 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

- Suggested (small) Positions -

Long Apr $80 PUT (BWA1221P80) Entry $1.25

04/14/12 Friday's reversal looks like a new entry point
04/10/12 triggered at $81.25

Entry on April 10 at $81.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 09, 2012

Dollar Thrifty Automotive - DTG - close: 79.71 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 80.55
Target(s): 72.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -28.5%
Time Frame: up to its early May earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/18 update:
DTG posted a minor gain today but shares are still struggling with overhead resistance at the $80.00 mark.
I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Comments:
04/18 update:
Ryder is breaking down to new relative lows and under support at the $50.00 level. Unfortunately we are almost out of time with our April $50 put. I am suggesting we exit our April puts at the closing bell tomorrow. Readers can use today's drop as a new entry point for the May puts.

We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $50 PUT (R1221P50) Entry $1.00

- or -

Long May $50 PUT (R1218Q50) Entry $1.80

04/18/12 prepare to exit the April $50 puts at the close tomorrow
04/17/12 opened the May $50 put position
04/13/12 triggered at $49.75

Comments:
04/18 update:
SINA displayed relative weakness this morning with a breakdown under support and a drop to $57.68 intraday. The stock pared its losses by the close but still declined -3%. Our trigger was hit at $59.40.

Earlier Comments:
SINA can be a volatile stock so we want to keep our position size small. Our exit target is $51.00 but we should expect some support in the $57.00-56.50 zone.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long May $55 PUT (SINA1219Q55) Entry $2.50

04/18/12 triggered at $59.40

Entry on April 18 at $59.40
Earnings Date 05/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on April 17, 2012

Timken Co. - TKR - close: 50.27 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 51.55
Target(s): 45.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -81.5%
Time Frame: exit before the April 25th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/18 update:
It was a quiet day for TKR. Shares drifted lower. The stock does look poised for more declines. Readers could use a drop under $49.75 as a new bearish entry point but if you do be sure to buy May puts. I would not hold over the April 25th earnings report.

Unfortunately we're almost out of time on our April $50 puts. We will plan to exit these options at the closing bell tomorrow.

- Suggested (small) Positions -

Long Apr $50 PUT (TKR1221P50) Entry $1.90

04/18/12 prepare to exit our April options at the close tomorrow
04/10/12 triggered at $48.90

Comments:
04/18 update:
We are running out of time with our April puts and WTW was showing some relative strength today. Cautious traders may want to exit at the open tomorrow. I am suggesting we exit at the closing bell tomorrow.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Comments:
04/18 update:
We were running out of time on our April NTES calls so yesterday I listed new exit targets. NTES was kind enough to outperform today with a +3.1% gain and a rally toward resistance near $60.00. The plan was to exit our April $55 calls when NTES hit $59.00 and exit our April $60 calls when NTES hit $59.50.