Tuesday, August 09, 2011

It appears
that the Twins may be poised to lose Scott Baker for the second time in the
season due to his elbow.

With
two-fifths of the starting rotation already on the verge of needing
replacement, following a Monday’s loss to the Red Sox, Baker told reporters
that the team was going to evaluate his elbow and determine whether or not he
needed another stint on the disabled list. According to the Star
Tribune’s Joe Christensen, Baker said he “noticed a lack of velocity and less sharpness in his
breaking pitches.”

For those watching the game, it certainly looked like Baker is
not 100%.

Baker, who is typically in the low-90s, was sitting around 89
miles per hour when facing the Red Sox on Monday night. This became apparent
during the middle stages of the game that the he looked flat when it came to
amping up his fastball or snapping his slider over the zone. The sixth inning
really proved to be his undoing and we witnessed examples of both of those
problems. After a lead-off triple to Carl Crawford and several hard hit balls, David
Ortiz deposited one of Baker’s 89 mile-per-hour fastballs into the upper deck
of right field and Jarrod Saltalamacchia followed that by lifting a
horizontal-moving slider into the plaza area (a 0-2 pitch, no less).

According to Fangraphs.com
pitch f/x warehouse, last night’s start was not his first tango without the
high-grade heat. Since his July 5outing against Tampa Bay
when he left after five innings, there has been a noticeable decline in his
velocity. Here you see that what pitch f/x categorizes as his main fastball (a
two-seamer). The grey lines indicate the range of velocity while the green dots
represent the average. What we can see is that Baker has been averaging 89-90
mph in his previous four starts when his elbow began barking again:

The drop in velocity in and of itself isn't necessarily a concern. What is striking is that the sudden downturn appears very
similar to last season’s output. As you may recall, Baker’s 2010 was marred
by the elbow injury that he attempted to play through - even receiving a
cortisone shot – but ultimately needed to be shutdown and required offseason
surgery to remove bone spurs.

Baker provided a bit
of a scare in the spring when he reported a setback in his progress. While
the bone spur surgery is viewed as a minor clean-up, the spurs have frequently
led to further elbow damage. Spurs are generated by a loose UCL
(the same ligament that snaps and then necessitates Tommy John surgery) and often the removal of spurs and chips can be a precursor to the eventual more
intensive surgical procedure. Now, with the reports of his elbow discomfort
flaring up again, it is time for the Twins to decide if they need to put
their arguably best starter on the disabled list – and it is
probably the right move to make.

Baker’s statements
after the game leads one to believe that he is uncertain on where he
stands. He noted that the pain was not as intense as it previously was but that
he was struggling to get loose. He suggests that he could pitch through pain
but, in all honestly, how much should the Twins push their top starter when the
season is spiraling out of control fast?

By his own admission, he said he could “pitch with some
discomfort” but conceded that pitching through that without being effective is
counterproductive. While he hasn’t been a detriment (not like Nick Blackburn or
Francisco Liriano anyways), Baker hasn’t been sharp. With the reality that the
Twins’ chances of winning the division hover somewhere between slim and none,
the organization needs to reassess Baker’s program. Furthermore, with a year
left on his contract in addition to an option year for 2013, if the team wants
to have Baker to return to pitch like he did from May through July when they
have a chance to compete for the division next season, rest is likely the best course
of action.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."