Bradley Wiggins begins Thursday's stage of the Paris-Nice 'Race to the Sun' through the Tarn Gorges and the Lozere moors knowing that, in all probability, if he is wearing the yellow jersey at the end of the day in Mende, on top of the Côte de la Croix Neuve, he will be set fair to become the first British winner since Tom Simpson in 1967.

Wednesday witnessed another uphill finish, in the town of Rodez, but it was of a different order, a mile-long drag to the line won by the Belgian Gianni Meersman, with Wiggins 10th. Tuesday's stage winner, Alejandro Valverde of Spain, was two places ahead of the Briton but critically unable to earn one of the time bonuses that go to the first three each day. That was a fillip for Wiggins, the more so as it was telling that Valverde, so sparkling the day before, simply ran out of steam just when he needed to wind up the pace while the race leader looked far fresher.

Thursday is far tougher, although well removed from the vast Alpine ascents that await Wiggins and company in the Tour de France in July. The Croix Neuve begins like the side of a house and barely lets up for the best part of two miles. The average gradient is one-in-10 but there are passages at one-in-eight. The climb was christened Montée Laurent Jalabert in 2005, the 10th anniversary of the Tour when, en route to Mende, "Jaja" put Miguel Indurain on the rack in a legendary Bastille Day exploit. Thursday is unlikely to match that epic, but it should be decisive. The gap to Wiggins's main challenger, Levi Leipheimer of the US, is just six seconds, while at Mende the margins should be far greater.

Wiggins heads for Mende in a very different state to his last visit, during the Tour de France in 2010, when he was wracked with self-doubt and struggling to stay with the best in an increasingly torrid attempt to repeat his fine ride the previous year. With the help of a revamped coaching team he has turned himself round since then, riding consistently among the best since finishing third in this race last year.

"You've got to have the legs and I'm in this position because I've got the legs," said Wiggins afterwards. "There will be no tactics [on Thursday], just empty the tanks for about six minutes. It's not like a 10-15 kilometre climb, where a lot can happen. I will just empty the tank and we will see where it puts me."

Meanwhile, in Donoratico on the Tuscany coast, a Team Sky squad including the world road race champion Mark Cavendish raced to fourth in the team time trial that opened the Tirreno-Adriatico 'Race of Two Seas', where the Manxman is honing his form for his first major objective of the season, 2012's opening one-day Classic, Milan-San Remo on 17 March.