Thursday, September 13, 2012

Week 3: When We Separate the Teenagers from the Toddlers

Ah, mid-September. The pretenders have been unmasked; we’re
looking at you Wisconsin, and Arkansas. And the big games are just beginning to
form. Now we can settle in and see who gets the wins, until the NCAA later
vacates them.

The Irish have a mini QB controversy. Everett Golson will
start over Tommy Rees.They will
get some help with last year’s leading rusher Cierre Wood returning from
suspension. How quickly he will be up to speed is anyone’s guess.

The Spartans are led by Le’veon Bell. But as Wisconsin
proved last week, you need more than a big running back to win. So it will come
down to Andrew Maxwell. How ready is he? We don’t know.

State probably has the better defense with big DE William
Gholston and friends. They are 8th in NCAA defense allowing 225
yards per game.

The Line: Spartans
are now 6-point favorites after starting out as 4 and a half point favorites.

The Pick: My
guess is that both teams struggle to score early. Michigan State is at home.
Running the football and defense are never bad things. State 21 Irish 16.

#2 USC (2-0) at #21 Stanford (2-0) Saturday, 6:30 p.m.,
FOX

Remember how wild this one was last year? Andrew Luck and the
Cardinal won in 3 overtimes? Yeah, well that was last year.

That said, Stanford has won 3 straight against the men of Troy.
Winning a fourth would be unprecedented. Not only that, it’ll be really,
really difficult.

Matt Barkley leads the PAC12 favorites on offense. He has 10
touchdowns before we even get to the quarter pole of the season. The Trojans
are 14th in the nation, scoring 46.5 ppg.

Stanford’s QB Josh Nunes will get his first real test of the
young season.He will rely on HB
Stepfan Taylor who has had back to back 1,000 yard seasons.

The Line: Opened
at 10 and now down to SC -8.5.

The Pick: Stanford
is not the same team post-Luck and this line is low. SC wins big 38- 21.

Navy (0-1) At Penn
State (0-2) Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ABC.

Penn State’s offense has been brutal. Its 15 ppg ranks 107th
in FBS and its rushing attack is 103rd. Still they almost did enough
to win on the road against Virginia. In fact, if they had a field goal kicker
who wasn’t 1 of 5 they would have one. But, it’s a tough situation there with
personnel losses before the season, as you all know.

The Naval Academy knows something about tough situations. They
lost 50-10 to Notre Dame in Dublin two weeks ago. QB Trey Miller captains (Get
it. Navy.) the triple-option offense. ND was able to slow it down, will Penn
State?

This is no gimme for the Lions. Navy would love to steal
one in Happy Valley. The Lions, though, really need a win.

The Line: PSU by
5.5. One side note, the O/U is 46.5…the under is enticing.

The Pick: Penn
State 14 Navy 10.

#25 Brigham Young
(2-0) at Utah (1-1) Saturday, 9 p.m., ESPN2.

An old WAC matchup to end the night.

The Utes lost starting QB Jordan Wynn for good, as he
decided to retire rather than risk an injury. Jon Hays, who filled in for him
last year, will take back over. Expect RB John White to get a lot of carries.

The Cougars are ranked 25th and in their second
year of playing Independent Football. QB Riley Nelson leads the 21st
ranked passing offense in the nation. Still Salt Lake City has not been kind to
BYU, who has lost 4 of their last five there.

The Line: Cougars
by 4.

The Pick: Too
much change for the Utes. Cougars 31 Utah 21.

#1 Alabama (2-0) at
Arkansas (1-1) 2:30 p.m., CBS.

Well, at least the suspense is gone from this game. If not
for ULM, it would have been a week of huge hype, followed by a big Alabama win.

The biggest suspense is whether Hog play caller Tyler Wilson
will be available this Saturday.His status is still uncertain because of a head injury.Meanwhile, Crimson Tide signal caller
A.J. McCarron hasn’t thrown an interception in 5 games.

The Hogs gave up 21 points to ULM to blow the lead last week.
Something tells me the Tide will move the ball. Last year it was 38-14 in Tuscaloosa.

The Line: Alabama
has moved to a 21-point favorite.

The Pick: No
doubt, its ‘Bama straight up. 21 points though is a pretty big margin going on the road against a team with a chip on its shoulder and nothing to lose. But
the odds makers are right. It's a push, Bama 38 Arkansas 17.