How We're Doing: Vermont's vanishing younger workers

Vermont's vanishing younger workers

Dec. 19, 2012

DT

Written by

Art Woolf

Art Woolf is associate professor of economics at University of Vermont and editor of The Vermont Economy Newsletter. / Submitted photo

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One of the biggest events of the last decade was the dramatic decline in the number of 21- to 44-year-olds in Vermont. Today, there are 20,000 fewer young, working-age Vermonters than there were a decade ago.

This was not expected. As recently as 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau forecast that there would be more people in this age group in 2011 than there were in 2000. What happened? Basically, a lot fewer people in that age group moved into Vermont, and a lot more than expected moved out. Vermont, apparently, was a less attractive place to be a twenty or thirty-something than most experts thought.

Most of Vermont’s workers are between 21 and 65, so this age group is the younger half of the working-age population. The declining number of these younger workers has important implications for Vermont. For one, entrepreneurs tend to be young. They’re more willing to take risks, leave their current employer, and strike out on their own. Many iconic Vermont success stories — Ben and Jerry’s, IDX (now part of GE Health Care), Dealer.com, Champlain Chocolates, Burton Snowboards — were all started by young entrepreneurs and grew to be large employers. With fewer young people, we’re going to have fewer chances of hitting those kinds of home runs.

Second, as the 45- to 64-year-old population shrinks, employers will have a difficult time finding young workers to take the place of those retiring baby boomers.

Third, these younger working-age Vermonters are at the age where they form new households. People in their 20s and 30s get married, have children and buy houses. With a slower rate of household formation, there won’t be as big of a demand for housing. There will be fewer construction jobs, and people wanting to sell their homes will find fewer potential buyers.

The solution to these problems is to make Vermont more attractive to younger people. High on the list of my agenda for the next couple of decades is to recognize that we need to encourage population growth, not discourage it.

Art Woolf is an associate professor of economics at the University of Vermont and editor of The Vermont Economy Newsletter.