Tuesday, April 22, 2014

A logical appeal, before the elections end!

Across my various interactions in the recent months, I have managed to gather 4 constructive reasons why some Indians would want to vote for BJP -

Modi: First and the loudest reason is Mr Modi himself (his key attributes in this context being - Development oriented approach and Decisive and Strong Leadership)

Stability: The need for stability is the second critical reason. Not having a government that depends on smaller regional parties and their so called short-sighted agendas while taking a call on critical issues. This was cited as a key reason for policy paralysis of UPA.

Less Corrupt Option: The perception that BJP is at least not as corrupt as Congress, also plays a role. There may be proof of possible BJP corruption but people are ready to digest it, and move on

Any Other Option? : The final reason is that most people feel there is no other valid option

If you can think of any other absolutely non-debateable reason, then please share. I am ignoring the destructive and negative reasons like Modi will be tough on Muslims, he will attack Pakistan if needed, BJP will build Ram temple etc. Yes, people who are voting for Modi/BJP for such reasons do exist, they are blinded by their social and cultural upbringing and I don’t expect them to see life any other way. It’s the sensible ones I address here.

Now lets leave our judgements and prejudices aside for a while and assess the above through logic and reasoning -

Modi’s Development orientation and Decisiveness

The Gujarat model of development has been debated to no end. Many figures being thrown
from both sides. TN, Maha etc have claimed to be better. I have always
found that from some angle or the other, all figures can be interpreted
in favour of or against Modi. If you leave figures behind and want to
talk about development on ground, then there are Gujaratis claiming they
have seen it with their eyes, and there are Indians from other
states claiming that roads and infra in their state has also developed, which the Gujarati has not seen.
This debate to me seems endless. However, given the fact Gujarat Model of development is so susceptible to a raging debate makes one wonder about how true the claims really are.

Lets for a moment assume that the
”development” did happen. It is only logical to expect that whatever
development has happened, was based on some planning, some vision
for Gujarat. And this plan and vision must have been stated somewhere. A
party’s manifesto can be safely treated to be that document. It gives a road map, with specific promises.

Modi made many
promises to Gujarat (which we will discuss in a bit), and is now making
similar development promises for India (Diamond quadrilateral of bullet
train, IIT/IIM/AIMS in every state (curiously, the IIT/IIM in each city claim is missing from the manifesto, but is integral to ModiMantra on BJP site), 24*7 electricity “like already done in Gujarat”, a
massive low cost housing program that will provide pucca house to every
citizen by 2022 etc)

So whether Modi will deliver on his
promises in future, can be best assessed by whether he has delivered on
his promises in past. Has Modi delivered on his 2007 and 2012 manifesto
in Gujarat, and if yes then to what extent?

Now, if you don’t
agree with me on this simple logic that a man’s credibility is based on his past actions, then you can stop reading right here. If not then
please continue.

Here are the key concrete promises of Modi’s Gujarat manifesto collected from sources (Gujarat BJP website does not have the older Manifesto ) given in the annexures below-

House to ALL urban and rural homeless

Achieving 12% economic growth in next 5 years

Doubling agriculture production

14 hour uninterrupted power supply for all farmers

Reduce water Tax for irrigation

Increasing electricity production to 20,000 MW of electricity

Set up 1 SEZ in every distric

Raise per capita income to above Rs 80,000 per annum

Achieve 0% dropout rate in primary schools

Pure drinking water for everyone (repeated in both manifestos)

Medical insurance for all people below poverty line

Good roads across villages

Making Gujarat No.1 in time for the state’s golden jubilee in 2010

Increase women employment to 30 lac

What happened to these promises? I’ll not quote the well circulated TOI article describing “the 10 broken promises”. I’ll just park this point for now.

Stability: Do we really believe that stability alone is enough to ensure good governance? UPA govt was stable for 10 years and their record is abysmal. In BJP's case, they have already announced a pre-poll alliance with around 30 political parties, to form the NDA. So even if they come to power, aren't they going to be bound by regional party demands and requirements? Wouldn’t those, who worried about a Khichri sarkar, feel rather reassured of bringing BJP to power had BJP decided to fight these elections alone? Further, its also unfair to brush all regional parties as petty and low on vision. The problem, however, with having such opportunistic alliances, is the post-poll ministry allocation dynamics. This is bound to hamper the much celebrated decisiveness of Modi. Stable govt, therefore, is not a sufficient reason in itself to vote for BJP. It has to be a clean and stable govt. Which brings us to the next point, Is BJP clean?

Less Corrupt: The most avid of BJP supporters can only say this, with much
hesitation, that BJP is not as corrupt as congress. In fact, they go a
step ahead and say, Modi will ensure that BJP becomes clean in due
course. This seems hard to believe on two accounts – First, the 'less corrupt'
perception is probably a function of how much of it has been unearthed and
spoken about in media. In which case it is only a
matter of time before we realise that BJP is as corrupt. Secondly, one wonders as to why
hasn’t Modi been able to cleanse his Gujarat cabinet in so many years and purge it of sentenced
ministers and convicts? In the interest of a moral high ground, shouldn’t a minister 'sentenced' for corruption be kept away from political interference, at least until he is cleared by a higher court? Or is a moral high ground such a
bad thing? Is Modi’s development agenda so weak that it will get dented by
letting go 2-3 ministers? Modi claims that he will de-criminalise BJP if
he comes to power, but sadly he has not given even one clear signal to make a neutral observer believe him. So, the point I guess is, there is
nothing like less corrupt.

Coming back to the key question; has Modi delivered on his Manifesto in Gujarat? Basis my limited research, 11 of those 14 manifesto claims have not even come close to being achieved, 2 claims reached somewhat close (per capita income has touched 75,000/annum, Good roads do exist) and only 1 was absolutely achieved; 20,000 MW electricity target of 2007 has been crossed. But, unfortunately this increase is solely attributed to private sector, and the govt sector electricity production has actually come down. That wouldn't be such a bad thing, was it not seen to be causing an excessive strain on public resources, further fueling the crony capitalism allegations on Modi.

I strongly recommend that you do your own claim check, because whatever data and source I put here, will not generate as much trust as your own sources. I am ready to concede that may be 2 or even 3 of the claims have been achieved. But no further.

Its important to note here that Modi has had time on his side. Even after 5+2 years since his second win, he seems to have failed to deliver on his promises by a substantial margin. Even if we assume that he has come close to achieving half of the claims, is that all that we should expect from a Model State? Isn't a National responsibility much larger than a state responsibility? Does this performance at state level generate any trust? Therefore hasn't Modi technically failed at state level, and yet he has been portraying it as his strength? Is this what builds PM credentials?

Now if one tightens the noose, and critically evaluates him in the larger context of all the negative aspectsof his political life (inflammatory speeches against Muslims, justifying fake encounters, deliberately distorting facts repeatedly to create impact in speeches, displaying lack of integrity by concealing his marital status and using it in his speeches to portray a clean image, dis-respecting and sidelining senior party leaders like Advani, Joshi & Jaswant, snubbing Sushma Swaraj on the Sriramulu decision, being under CAG scanner for crony capitalism, fighting against the SC to subvert the Gujarat Lokayukta and legislating a weak one, spying on women for no reason ever declared so far... its a long list) then suddenly his meager achievements seem further dwarfed.

2 comments:

Interesting read but one can sense a negative bias towards the man.......in fact the only 3 achievements that you mentioned good infra, per capita income and power sufficiency......if ge delivers these 3 at national level we will be much better off. And we need to remember that we are talking about a state leader who has only received uninterrupted criticism from central heating govt in last 10 yrs and not much support.......he might not be a holy cow but certainly the most competent of the lot right now. I will support him to fulfill those 3 promises at national level and lot more will follow. Watch out for a Man on Mission!

well.. .the thing is, those 3 things have been happening in rest of india too.

1. roads have been improved all across the golden quadrilateral

2. per capita income has increased more in 4 other states including Maha and TN have had a faster rate of per capita income growth. these are not poor states

3. electricity increase has happened at a huge cost to ex-Exchequer increasing the overall debt on the state.

he will probably leave the country in a mess.

i agree there is a negative bias in my head against him. i tried to counter it. but facts work against him.

Manohar Parrikar is an absolutely capable and more competent than him. further, there are many individual candidates who might be better, so no point voting blindly on his name given so much scope of doubt on his integrity as well as capability.

he will most likely not become the PM and if he does, i feel we are in for a really bad time