Better 3B for 08

Snakes Gould wrote:i just dont really see wright's power potential. i dont ever see him hitting 40. sure he could go 30/30 which is awesome, and im not saying i would take braun over him. id more likely take wright over braun for next season RIGHT now. but if braun closes the season out like this, i may change my mind.

I just don't see how we can possibly know anyone's potential at age 24.

I would probably take Wright. If Braun ends this season with ~35 homers, ~15 SB, and a .330+ average, which is his current pace, I think it would be real, real tough to NOT take Braun in the first two rounds. I think, at that point, he'd fall either right before or right after Wright, but overall, they'd be about equal. However, if Braun hits a slight "roadblock" like most expect him to, including myself, he should slip a little bit and fall after Wright.

As for potential... Both guys are excellent overall athletes with good power ability. This is not to discredit Wright in any way, but Braun is a freak; he is faster, stronger, and more agile than Wright (again, this is not to discredit Wright in any way). He has a couple inches on Wright. He has more "potential" to be a better base stealer than Wright, though he'll need to refine his base stealing techniques to actually steal 30 (or even more) in a season. Currently, Wright is the better base runner, though that should not be a negative for Braun; he's a good base runner, Wright is just excellent. He uses his given speed as well as anyone in baseball. Power, however, is unquestioned; it may be because Braun has a couple inches on Wright, but Braun's power ceiling is THROUGH THE ROOF. Braun's bat may be among the top three or four quickest in baseball, and he has easy power to ALL parts of the baseball field. I watch him hit, and the ball just EXPLODES off his bat; I'm fairly young, and I haven't seen a lot of guys from the '80s or early '90s, but outside of a select few, I've never seen the ball jump off a bat like it does off Braun's. He has a nice, fluid swing, and the ball just goes. Wright has good power, but to those of you suggesting he has 40-homer power, that's a bit ridiculous; he does not have the bat speed to do so, and he does not have the size to make up for the bat speed. Neither is something Wright is going to develop over night. He may have a season or two where he comes close to, or passes 40, but he will not be a guy you expect to hit 40. Braun easily has that potential.

Otherwise, they are similar. I like Braun batting 3rd in that lineup. I think they have similar BA potential (.300+). I'd go with Wright now because he's more proven and we're mostly talking potential, but if Braun can put up a similar line to his projections this year for a full season (which would be ~50 homers, 24 SBs) in 2008, I'd think he would move ahead of Wright. Also, the 50 homers is a bit of an exaggeration, though that is the pace he would be on this year if he were to get in a full season.

I went with Braun. Partially because his upside seems to be so high, but I'm also not a fan of David Wright (never was). He's never hit more than 27 homers in a season and Braun might eclipse 30 his ROOKIE season while missing the first TWO MONTHS!

Even if Braun is playing out of his goard and his production drops some next year it still seems likely that he's going to hit 25 homers minimum.

Wright is on pace for 101 runs, 27 home runs, 98 rbis, 36 steals and a .301 ba.

In April he was nonexistent and still suffering from that prolonged slump he had in the second half of the previous season. Since then he's been consistently great. With Wright being only a year older than Braun and having multiple seasons of excellence in the Major Leagues I definitely take Wright over Braun until Braun proves it over a longer period. I'm not discounting Braun's performance in the minor leagues but given one players history in the majors vs another's in the minors I'll take the the formers performance more seriously every time. I agree that they are already pretty close but to me it's a no brainer to take the proven MLB player who still has a lot of room grow as well.

I'm shocked that so many ppl would take Braun over Wright. I think a lot of people are discounting the value of proven performance over more than a full season. In Wright, we're talking about a guy that has consistently posted top-20 fantasy numbers for 3 straight years at the MLB level. Wright hits for average, hits for power, steals 20+ bases, and plays in a strong lineup. Braun has played less than half a season at the MLB level. I'm not doubting his talent, or that he'll be an elite fantasy player, but I'll take the consistent, proven stud over the unproven potential stud any day. Especially as a keeper.

BTW, I don't own either Wright or Braun and I'm not a Met or Brewer fan.

I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.

If I had to take them with the same pick... i would probably take wright for the consistency. However, I doubt braun and wright will go in the same round, specifically for the reasons you are all mentioning. So if I could have wright in the 2nd, or braun in the 4th or 5th, i would take braun, and pick someone else with my 2nd.

Not that it really matters as I have him in my keeper auction league for 7$

The only thing I have to say about Braun and being "proven" is that he has done ALL that he can (and I mean all) to prove that what he is doing now is no fluke. Believe me, I would like to see it over a much longer time period, but check out the Cube's stats on this kid: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Ryan-Braun-1.shtml

He was a highly touted prep prospect out of Granada Hills who did not go in the first round because he said there was virtually "no shot" he would sign; he wanted to live the college experience. As a freshman in arguably the toughest baseball conference in the country, he put up an 1.100 OPS with 17 jacks and 36 XBH (!!!) in 242 ABs. As a 19 year old kid, playing against the best players in the country, he did THAT! I know he was 19 and was using metal, but that is ridiculous. He battled thru an injury-plagued sophomore season (and still posted a 1.045 OPS) and then BEASTED the ACC his junior year, becoming the ACC PoTY (1.197 OPS, .726 SLG, 23 SB, 18 HR, 36 XBH, 219 ABs). Okay, great, that'll earn you a top five draft pick. Just for comparison, if he was a junior LAST season, he would have been the EASY #1 prospect in the draft.

He signed pretty early and got 10 games in at the rookie level and 37 in at A-ball, not shocking because he was supposed to be a polished college bat. Well... in 193 ABs between the two levels, he only hit .352 with 10 homers and 31 XBH. That's a homer every 19.3 ABs for those who struggle with math, which is a pretty unheard of number for a kid who had just switched to wood from aluminum in the middle of a season. He also K'd 40 times, a pretty high number, but nothing too alarming, but only walked 11 times. Oh, and his XBH % was only 45.6%.

In his first full season in '06, at Brevard County (A+), Braun struggled slightly to begin the season. Some may be attributed to the fact that the FSL is a slight pitcher's league and that BC plays for the pitchers, but he still managed 21 XBH in 227 ABs, 7 homers, 14 steals. This would prove to be Braun's toughest task, but the Brewer's saw through his "marginal" numbers at A+ and promoted him to AA Huntsville where he just took off and has not looked back since. A quick run-down: 35 XBH (including 15 HR) in 231 ABs, 21 BB, 46 Ks, 12 SB, .303 AVG. For a 22 year old in his first full-season at AA, that's a pretty damn good line. And then, as we all know, he took AAA by storm to start 2007, to the tune of .342/.418/.701/1.119 in 117 ABs, and that includes 10 homers, 22 XBH, a 55% XBH rate (insane), and a 15:11 BB:K ratio.

My point of this lengthy statistical run-down of Braun's career: Sure, it'd be nice if we had a year-and-a-half of Braun in the Majors to make this decision, but he has done everything in his power to prove that what he is doing now is 100% legit. He has not stopped hitting since he arrived at U of Miami in 2003 and there's very little that suggests he's going to stop at some point soon. The kid is a great hitter, and though his approach could use SOME work, he's still doing a good job of selecting a good pitch that he knows he can drive and actually driving it. If you're ever going to take a risk with a guy, Braun has, at the very least, validated taking a risk on him.

rmande09 wrote:The only thing I have to say about Braun and being "proven" is that he has done ALL that he can (and I mean all) to prove that what he is doing now is no fluke. Believe me, I would like to see it over a much longer time period, but check out the Cube's stats on this kid: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Ryan-Braun-1.shtml

He was a highly touted prep prospect out of Granada Hills who did not go in the first round because he said there was virtually "no shot" he would sign; he wanted to live the college experience. As a freshman in arguably the toughest baseball conference in the country, he put up an 1.100 OPS with 17 jacks and 36 XBH (!!!) in 242 ABs. As a 19 year old kid, playing against the best players in the country, he did THAT! I know he was 19 and was using metal, but that is ridiculous. He battled thru an injury-plagued sophomore season (and still posted a 1.045 OPS) and then BEASTED the ACC his junior year, becoming the ACC PoTY (1.197 OPS, .726 SLG, 23 SB, 18 HR, 36 XBH, 219 ABs). Okay, great, that'll earn you a top five draft pick. Just for comparison, if he was a junior LAST season, he would have been the EASY #1 prospect in the draft.

He signed pretty early and got 10 games in at the rookie level and 37 in at A-ball, not shocking because he was supposed to be a polished college bat. Well... in 193 ABs between the two levels, he only hit .352 with 10 homers and 31 XBH. That's a homer every 19.3 ABs for those who struggle with math, which is a pretty unheard of number for a kid who had just switched to wood from aluminum in the middle of a season. He also K'd 40 times, a pretty high number, but nothing too alarming, but only walked 11 times. Oh, and his XBH % was only 45.6%.

In his first full season in '06, at Brevard County (A+), Braun struggled slightly to begin the season. Some may be attributed to the fact that the FSL is a slight pitcher's league and that BC plays for the pitchers, but he still managed 21 XBH in 227 ABs, 7 homers, 14 steals. This would prove to be Braun's toughest task, but the Brewer's saw through his "marginal" numbers at A+ and promoted him to AA Huntsville where he just took off and has not looked back since. A quick run-down: 35 XBH (including 15 HR) in 231 ABs, 21 BB, 46 Ks, 12 SB, .303 AVG. For a 22 year old in his first full-season at AA, that's a pretty damn good line. And then, as we all know, he took AAA by storm to start 2007, to the tune of .342/.418/.701/1.119 in 117 ABs, and that includes 10 homers, 22 XBH, a 55% XBH rate (insane), and a 15:11 BB:K ratio.

My point of this lengthy statistical run-down of Braun's career: Sure, it'd be nice if we had a year-and-a-half of Braun in the Majors to make this decision, but he has done everything in his power to prove that what he is doing now is 100% legit. He has not stopped hitting since he arrived at U of Miami in 2003 and there's very little that suggests he's going to stop at some point soon. The kid is a great hitter, and though his approach could use SOME work, he's still doing a good job of selecting a good pitch that he knows he can drive and actually driving it. If you're ever going to take a risk with a guy, Braun has, at the very least, validated taking a risk on him.

Great post. His AVG will definitely come down unless he greatly improves his approach and discipline but the power and speed is real. Very excited to have this kid on a keeper team.

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin