In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2011 (487,900 movements) decreased 0.8% when compared with February 2011 (491,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.5% higher than in March 2010.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2011. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for March 2010 and March 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (23.1%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (14.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - March 2011

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Feb 11 to Mar 11

Mar 10 to Mar 11

Source countries(a)

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

101.8

103.5

93.2

0.6

8.3

UK, CIs & IOM(b)

49.5

46.0

60.1

-2.8

-7.6

United States of America

39.4

38.9

41.7

-0.4

0.4

China

43.2

40.6

41.2

0.3

23.1

Japan

27.7

28.0

36.0

-1.3

-14.5

Singapore

26.0

24.6

24.6

-1.2

5.8

Malaysia

18.8

19.4

20.4

-3.2

7.2

Korea(c)

16.4

15.7

15.7

-3.7

-8.6

Germany

13.2

12.7

14.6

-0.7

-1.4

India

12.9

13.0

13.9

0.4

16.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.

(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than March 2011.
2 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than March 2011.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during March 2011 (593,000 movements) decreased 1.6% when compared with February 2011 (602,700 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.0% higher than in March 2010.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during March 2011. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for March 2010 and March 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Singapore (16.9%). The next highest percentage increase was for Indonesia (14.5%) followed by the United States of America (13.5%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CIs & IOM (4.3%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - March 2011

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Feb 11 to Mar 11

Mar 10 to Mar 11

Destination countries(a)

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

86.4

81.9

89.6

-1.0

-1.2

Indonesia

67.4

64.2

56.5

0.1

14.5

United States of America

60.6

60.6

54.7

0.6

13.5

Thailand

41.1

39.6

35.8

1.0

6.9

China

27.3

27.2

30.7

-0.5

1.0

UK, CIs & IOM(b)

34.8

34.9

25.8

-1.0

-4.3

Singapore

24.5

25.1

23.7

2.0

16.9

Hong Kong

18.1

18.8

23.1

-0.1

6.2

Fiji

24.5

24.0

21.7

-1.8

-

Malaysia

20.7

20.9

19.9

-0.2

2.4

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.

(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than March 2011.
2 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than March 2011.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia

The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

There were 11,600 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2011, a decrease of 10.0% compared with March 2010 (12,890 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (24.8%), followed by people born in China (12.0%), India (7.3%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (6.5%).

There were 7,340 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during March 2011, an increase of 2.2% compared with March 2010 (7,180 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

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