Beaufort’s latest opinion poll for the Western Mail shows 54% of adults in Wales say the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Labour Party and his performance so far in that role has made no difference to their likelihood of voting Labour.

Where it has made a difference, the impact appears to be more negative than positive however - three in ten Welsh adults (30%) revealed they were now less likely to vote Labour, while only around one in ten (11%) said it has made them more likely to do so.

Those most likely to say the election of Jeremy Corbyn had increased their likelihood of voting Labour were:
• Those aged 16 to 24 (15%, compared to 11% overall)
• Those living in Cardiff and South East Wales and Mid & West Wales (16% and 15% respectively)
• Welsh speakers (14%)

Conversely, those stating they were now less likely to vote Labour as a result were:
• Those aged 55+ (39% compared with 30% overall)
• Those living in North Wales and West South Wales (35% and 34% respectively)

Those living in the traditional Labour heartlands of the South Wales Valleys were among the most likely to say Jeremy Corbyn’s election had made no difference to how they would vote (59% compared with 54% overall), as were younger people in Wales, who are less likely than those in older age groups to turn out to vote in elections generally (63% of those aged 16 to 24).

The sample of 1,000 adults across Wales questioned in late November / early December 2015 was asked the following question:

Q. Has the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party and his performance in that role so far made you...?

o More likely to vote Labour
o Less likely to vote Labour
o Made no difference