Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1812:49 PM

#1 SINGING BULLET (30/1) - "The house always wins" may hold water on the casino side of Gulfstream Park, but not so much on the horse racing side. SINGING BULLET is the house horse here, owned by Stronach Stables. But, unlike last year's offering (bona fide contender Shaman Ghost), they didn't bring SINGING BULLET into the picture until late in the game. Though he has an excuse for his disappointing fourth last out, his better running style has him shooting right to the front, on a pace that will be hotly contested. He looks a likely pace factor, but will need to take a quantum leap forward to be in the picture late.

#2 WEST COAST (8/1) - Spoiler alert: here's my win bet. The 8/1 morning line looks a little optimistic here -- but with GUN RUNNER, COLLECTED, and SHARP AZTECA reasonably likely to take money, WEST COAST could still go off around 5/1 or 6/1 in this field. Yes, GUN RUNNER is the most likely winner in this field. Saying otherwise would be disingenuous. But, WEST COAST is the one who abounds with upside. The post draw is cozy: SINGING BULLET, the only horse inside of him, tends to send, giving him the ability to tuck in and track from the pocket. With all the speed, though WEST COAST could send to the front if he had to, he should be able to use his more typical stalk-and-pounce trip to his advantage here. Though he has tables to turn on GUN RUNNER and COLLECTED, both of them have questions -- questions more serious than "will he handle Gulfstream?", a question that pales in comparison to the relatively well-travelled WEST COAST's upside.

#3 STELLAR WIND (30/1) - There are few horses I would rather see win this than STELLAR WIND, an ultra-game daughter of Curlin, and the only filly facing the boys in this year's Pegasus. Her entry is already a testament to the power of a $16 million purse, as the lads of Coolmore are willing to point a horse they purchased for $6 million as a broodmare to this race before she has her date with American Pharoah. But, it is hard to see STELLAR WIND winning here. There are mild positives: she has some pace versatility, and her mile and an eighth form is not as bad as her 4: 0-1-0 career line may make it appear. Yet, she will have to take a huge step forward off a non-effort in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). And, she has done so much of her best work in short fields while pressing a leader, not the sort of trip she stands to get here.

#4 SHARP AZTECA (6/1) - Gulfstream Park affinity is no question for SHARP AZTECA, and neither is class. The question is distance -- can this stone-cold one-turn miler hang at a mile and an eighth against true nine-furlong, even ten-furlong horses? Though he did not run badly in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), he was beaten by Battle of Midway that day -- a stone-cold two-turn miler. In this race, where he'll be one of many pace factors in the field, going longer than he knows over a track configuration he does not favour? He's hard to like.

#5 COLLECTED (8/1) - It's hard to hold the San Antonio (G2) flop against him. In a race where he looked the speed on paper, Mike Smith took him way back, and instead GIANT EXPECTATIONS danced on the front in a short field. If Mike Smith learned his lesson -- which it sounds like he did -- he should put COLLECTED a lot closer here. That may be his best place to be, but it won't be an easy place to be, with SINGING BULLET, SHARP AZTECA, GUN RUNNER, and perhaps even TOAST OF NEW YORK all there to ensure a hot pace. He stayed on well enough after a duel with GUN RUNNER in the Breeders' Cup Classic to suggest he can run on with the best of the best, but even if you give a mulligan for the San Antonio, it's hard to see COLLECTED doing better than an underneath share given that the front end may prove even more taxing.

#6 GUNNEVERA (15/1) - This race drew a lot of pace. That, in itself, is not enough to put a closer in the mix; this is Gulfstream, after all. However? GUNNEVERA is as proven a Gulfstream closer as there is, and he has proven time after time that he can handle the surface and the short stretch beautifully. Rider Luis Saez is also a positive: an experienced Gulfstream rider, he has been firing at 22% this meet, including a seven-win Wednesday. If the Pegasus falls apart then GUNNEVERA could win. If speedy sorts stay on, he could still rally for a piece underneath.

#7 FEAR THE COWBOY (30/1) - FEAR THE COWBOY gets a class test here; he has proven himself a perfectly solid Grade 3/Listed class horse, but this will be his first try against the top level and he will have to improve significantly to cut it here. To his credit he has a win going nine furlongs. He also has a 6: 4-1-1 record over Gulfstream's course; especially for a midpack to closing type, this is a serious positive for FEAR THE COWBOY. Yet, there are other closers in here likely to close more strongly, including another proven Gulfstream closer in GUNNEVERA. Sprinkle him in fourth or fifth on spread tickets, but that's as good as he looks likely to do.

#8 WAR STORY (25/1) - Our Longshot Writer has been looking forward to this one's return to the Pegasus for a while, and is quite pleased to see how much speed drew into the race. WAR STORY is tactical enough to be effective from closer to the pace if he needs to be -- but here, he does not need to be. He can settle midpack, and he'll likely get the jump on true closers GUNNEVERA and SEEKING THE SOUL. WAR STORY has danced every dance, making a career of rallying for underneath shares against the top of the handicap division. A credible fifth in last year's running of the Pegasus, his fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic last year suggests that he should be in good enough form to improve position late as the ones fighting for the lead tire. A win would be difficult to see, but as a price for the exotics? It doesn't get more honest than WAR STORY.

#9 TOAST OF NEW YORK (20/1) - TOAST OF NEW YORK has only run once on dirt, but that race was all class: a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic, right there in a photo finish with Bayern and California Chrome. (Get out your time machines, folks!) Back in training after a three-year lay that included a stint at stud in Qatar, TOAST OF NEW YORK would be an amazing story if he were to win the Pegasus. Unfortunately, a fairy tale ending looks unlikely. Though it would be a surprise to see him as swift as the front-end contingent of SHARP AZTECA, GUN RUNNER, SINGING BULLET, and possibly COLLECTED, he has enough affinity for the lead that he might try -- a taxing, and likely unfruitful, pursuit. Something like the trip he got in the 2014 Pacific Classic (G1), in which he rated and rallied to finish second behind Shared Belief, may serve him better. But, will he be ready to hold his own against the best of the American handicap division off one minor prep at Lingfield? Despite Jamie Osborne's best efforts, that seems a bridge too far.

#10 GUN RUNNER (4/5) - GUN RUNNER is the one to beat here: the best-proven horse, and the one who dominated half this field two and a half months ago in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Seeing him win would be no surprise; even with a hot pace anticipated, GUN RUNNER knows how to survive a contested front end. But? At odds-on, there are a few reasons he may not be a mortal lock. The Twitter Discourse has been focusing on the unfavourable post, but that's the least of this space's concerns. There are other questions. He has never raced at Gulfstream, which can be a love-it-or-hate-it oval. And, trainer Steve Asmussen commented Monday that "we definitely had targeted peaking at the Breeders’ Cup Classic when we brought him back in training." This may be GUN RUNNER's grand finale, but is it one race too many?

#11 SEEKING THE SOUL (25/1) - Stop me if you've heard this one: a Dallas Stewart Longshot comes rallying from off the pace at bomb odds for a piece underneath... Yes, that's something you've heard a few times on the first Saturday in May, but with so much speed in the Pegasus, SEEKING THE SOUL could be interesting. He keeps rider John Velazquez from a win in the Clark (G1), and has never missed the board in five tries at nine furlongs. His affinity for Gulfstream remains a question, as does his ability to fire first off a layoff since the Clark. But, if you're really spreading on those lower rungs of a trifecta or superfecta, SEEKING THE SOUL's late kick makes him worth inclusion at a price.

#12 GIANT EXPECTATIONS (30/1) - He got everything his own way in the San Antonio last out, thanks to a creative ride by Gary Stevens. With far more speed in the field here, expect Giant Expectations to revert to his more typical off-pace style. But, the far outside post does not help, and there are better and more powerful closers who will be rallying late.

#13 GIUSEPPE THE GREAT (also eligible) - To GIUSEPPE THE GREAT's credit, he has never missed the board in three starts at Gulfstream, and has hit the board in both his nine-furlong tries over fast dirt. But, he loses regular rider Luis Saez to better-proven contender GUNNEVERA, and has to take a huge step forward to be competitive here.

#14 GAME OVER (also eligible) - Unraced since the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), GAME OVER would be facing older horses for the first time should he draw into the Pegasus. Though he has some tactical speed and a money finish going nine furlongs in the West Virginia Derby (G3), winning this from the far outside (or, frankly, any post at all) seems like too much to ask.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1812:58 PM

Singing Bullet [ML 30-1 – Hard Spun – Romans/Albarado – 10: 3-2-1 - $150,764] Singing Bullet has one win in his last five allowance starts, and that was going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. He has a third-place finish in the sprinting Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga this past summer. This two-turn test seems to be way too much to ask for this son of Hard Spun and the distinguished mare Life At Ten. Too much to ask.

West Coast [ML – 8-1 - Flatter – Baffert/Castellano – 9: 6-2-1 - $2,083,800] Unraced as a juvenile, West Coast put together a likely 2017 championship campaign when he swept to big wins in the Travers (G1) and the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). He developed into the best 3-year-old in the country in the hands of trainer Bob Baffert. He was given a freshening after his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Gun Runner and Collected. It will be interesting if the son of Flatter continues to get better as a 4-year-old. Here, in the Pegasus, he should sit in perfect position behind the early speed, waiting to make his move down the stretch. However, it will be very hard to beat Gun Runner. Likely second best.

Stellar Wind [ML – 30-1 – Curlin – C. Brown/Rosario – 16: 10-2-1 - $2,253,200] The champion 3-year-old filly champion of 2015 will be the first female runner in the Pegasus. What an amazing career this daughter of Curlin has had. Coolmore purchased her for $6 million at the recent Keeneland November sale, and they quickly stated that she would run in the Pegasus. She was moved to Chad Brown's barn, and it is up to the Eclipse Award-winning trainer to get her back on track after she showed no interest in running in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Brown is solid with horses new to his barn. Does the now-6-year-old have a big performance left in her? She will need one to compete with some of these guys. At her best, she likes to be close to the pace and then battle it out down the stretch. She’ll need to be at her best to compete.

Sharp Azteca [ML – 6-1 - Freud - J. Navarro/I. Ortiz - 16: 8-5-1 – $1,756,740] I consider Sharp Azteca a bit of a wild card in the Pegasus. The son of Freud turned in one of his career best performances in the Cigar Mile when Javier Castellano got on board and had him rate behind the speed, but Castellano will be riding West Coast in this spot. Irad Ortiz gets on board, and he is equally adept at rating a horse. Sharp Azteca is no stranger to Gulfstream Park, where he has a career record of 5: 3-1-0 with all three victories coming in one-turn miles. Only once has he ever won going two turns, and that was against a soft field at Monmouth Park.

What should be expected from Sharp Azteca? Will he be a stalker or will he be running on the lead? Either way, against this kind of competition the extra distance and the two turns loom as obstacles. Can he hold on and bring home one of the million-dollar paychecks? He must deal with the distance.

Collected [ML – 8-1 - City Zip – Baffert/M. Smith – 13: 8-2-1 - $2,316,500] Collected had a heck of a year to start 2017, with four consecutive victories including the Pacific Classic (G1) against Arrogate. He was second best in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and most recently he finished third in the San Antonio after uncharacteristically dawdling at the back of the field. Was it a bad decision by rider Mike Smith in the San Antonio, or was he feeling the effects of his summer/fall campaign? Regardless, Collected does his best running on the lead, and that is where I expect to see him in the Pegasus. He will find plenty of company out there and he will need to check his rear-view mirror coming down the stretch. Expect him to be running early.

Gunnevera [ML – 15-1 – Dialed In – Sano/L. Saez – 14: 5-3-1 - $1,627,200] Is it Gunnevera’s time in the Pegasus? Trainer Antonio Sano has been prepping him at Gulfstream Park West since his fifth-place finish in the Classic. It is well known that the son of Dialed In loves Gulfstream Park, where he has a record of 7: 3-2-1. One of those wins came on the 2017 Kentucky Derby trail in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Actually, that was his last graded stakes victory. Gunnevera has never won a Grade 1 stakes, and it seems unlikely that he would get one here in the Pegasus. He will be making his closing move as the field turns for home, but he won’t be alone in doing so. Passes tired horses.

Fear the Cowboy [ML - 30-1 – Cowboy Cal – Loza Jr./Gaffalione – 27: 9-7-2- $570,869] Fear the Cowboy was bred by the University of Kentucky and was once sold for $1,500. Now a 6-year-old, he has two Grade 3 wins, including the recent Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream Park against a field of solid handicap horses. Those races are a far cry from this Pegasus field, and this guy will leave the gate at a high price. A big longshot.

War Story [ML – 25-1 - Northern Afleet – J. Navarro/J. Ortiz – 24: 5-3-3 - $1,584,305] This 6-year-old has run at 13 different tracks in his career and has taken on many of the best older horses in the country. His last three races produced fourth-place finishes in Grade 1 stakes, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Loooch Racing runner always tries hard coming down the stretch and I expect the same in the Pegasus. Another fourth-place finish possible?

Toast of New York [ML – 20-1 –Thewayyouare - J. Osbourne/Dettori - 9: 4-3-0 -$2,359,014] Another wild card in this field, because although he is 7-years-old old, he has only raced nine times. After his narrow loss in the 2014 Classic, he developed a slight tendon tear and thus he was sent to stud. After limited success he was returned to racing in December in England. European trainers are good at getting their horses in shape without much racing. If he can get Toast of New York in top form, he could be dangerous coming down the stretch. Can this European be ready?

Gun Runner [ML 4-5 - Candy Ride – Asmussen/ Geroux - 18: 11-3-2 - $8,998,500] Since Gun Runner began his career back in Sept. 11, 2015, with a first-out maiden victory at Churchill Downs, he has had no significant physical problems and has remained in training for more than two years. The son of Candy Ride improved with age. Not to forget that he was third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby behind Nyquist after a great run in Louisiana on the Derby trail, but it was not until Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen decided to “let Gun Runner be Gun Runner” that he found his best. Gun Runner broke through for a Grade 1 victory in the 2016 Clark Handicap by using his speed and run on the lead. From that point forward he lost only once, and that was in the 2017 Dubai World Cup. Gun Runner now is best when sits just behind the early leader and then goes by heading for home.

Gun Runner has never run at Gulfstream Park, but he has raced at 10 different tracks and, given dry conditions, he has handled them all, thus the Florida track should be no different. Also, the nine furlongs is probably the best distance for him.

One way or another, the early pace in the Pegasus should be strong and I fully expect Gun Runner to be stalking the leaders, although he is quite capable of running with them. He is just too good for the rest of the field and he will sweep past the them to close out his career in the only way that would be fitting, with an impressive victory. A victorious finale is expected.

Seeking the Soul [ML – 25-1 – Perfect Soul – Stewart/Velazquez – 17: 5-3-5 - $551,162] Seeking the Soul had a breakthrough victory in his last start in the Clark Handicap (G1). Granted, it was not the strongest running of that Churchill Downs stake. Previously, the son of Perfect Soul had found success in the allowance ranks, but had no luck at the next level. Trainer Dallas Stewart has had a history of getting longshot horses to hit the board in big races at big prices. Seeking the Soul is a closer and he will be a big price in the richest race in the world. He is among several who should do his best running at the end. Big price for the superfecta.

Giant Expectations [ML - 30-1 – Frost Giant – Eurton/G. Stevens – 13: 4-3-1 - $449,200] This son of Frost Giant has won twice at the Grade 2 level. Most recently in the San Antonio, he was sent to the front and led wire to wire after Collected opted to run from behind. In the Pat O’Brien, he rallied from behind to win that seven-furlong contest. Using either of those tactics, this will be a very tough spot for Giant Expectations. Up against it here.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1812:59 PM

Jeffrey Byrnes

Winner: #4 Sharp Azteca

On the board: #10 Gun Runner, #2 West Coast

Longshot I like: #3 Stellar Wind

I've decided to go full-blown upset. Sharp Azteca will win the Pegasus World Cup. His ability to sit off the pace, pounce on his rivals and draw away with cruising speed gives him a great chance to pull off a shocker. In the Monmouth Cup, his last two-turn race, Sharp Azteca raced off the pace, took the lead turning for home, and drew away in dominant fashion, setting a track record in the process. Sharp Azteca also has three wins at Gulfstream Park, showing his love for the track. His final work was a 58-second bullet, and he is primed and ready to go for to run the biggest race.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1801:00 PM

Nick Costa

Winner: #10 Gun Runner

On the board: #2 West Coast, #3 Stellar Wind

Longshot I like: #3 Stellar Wind

Analysis: Horse of the Year Gun Runner has never been better (that's scary) and despite his wide draw, it’s going to take a monumental effort to defeat him. West Coast is a sharp performer open to further improvement and is probably the one that has the best shot of pulling it off. Stellar Wind now goes out for her new trainer, Chad Brown, who is phenomenal in this category. On her best form, she must be afforded a chance.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1801:00 PM

Candice Curtis

Winner: #2 West Coast

On the board: #6 Gunnevera, #10 Gun Runner, #11 Fear The Cowboy

Longshot I like: #9 Toast of New York

Analysis: While my heart and some win bets will be on Gun Runner, the idea here is to try and win some serious money. So, I am going with Baffert's fresh 4-year-old, West Coast, in the win spot. He drew a great post and should press just behind the pacesetters. The post is not going to do Gun Runner any favors, but I think he's a beast and will still be in the Superfecta. Fear The Cowboy didn't draw well, but he should escape the early cavalry charge and settle mid-pack to make a run. He has a win at this distance and will surprise. Gunnevera loves Gulfstream, and the pace should be stiff enough, but I think he will still have too much to do to make up ground in the end. As for Toast of New York, stranger things have happened... and from the videos I have seen of him on-track, he looks great and worth a flyer at 20-1 or more.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1801:00 PM

Chip Gehrke

Winner: #4 Sharp Azteca

On the board: #2 West Coast, #10 Gun Runner

Longshot I like: #11 Seeking the Soul

Analysis: Sharp Azteca comes into this race off a facile Cigar Mile win. He ran much better than it looked Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, as he was severely compromised by the rail bias. He will be very difficult to beat and I don’t think the extra distance is a cause for concern over a track he loves. West Coast comes into this off of a layoff having not run since his third-place Breeders’ Cup Classic finish. Figures to be better now at age 4. Gun Runner hasn’t raced since the Breeders’ Cup when he too overcame an extreme rail bias. The outside post hurts here, and even though he was red hot to end 2017, it would be a tall order to win in this spot with the layoff and the draw. Seeking the Soul could very well surprise here by sneaking into the show or even place positions as many others in here have some question marks.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1801:01 PM

Casey Laughter

Winner: #10 Gun Runner

On the Board: #5 Collected, #2 West Coast

Longshot I Like: #7 Fear The Cowboy

Analysis: While I do believe Gun Runner is vulnerable at post 10 in this race, he has the most credentials and is best horse coming into it. Overall, the Pegasus is tough to handicap because it will depend on unknowns of the break. However, I do like Fear The Cowboy as a huge upset chance. I liked him in West Virginia and since then, he has performed well.

Re: Pegasus World Cup - 01/27/1801:01 PM

Jasen Mangrum

Winner: #5 Collected

On the board: #2 West Coast, #10 Gun Runner

Longshot I like: #3 Stellar Wind

Analysis: Collected has a beautiful draw outside of Sharp Azteca and is working well coming into this. Also, I like the off-the-pace prep race for this on Dec. 26 as an introduction to new jockey, Mike Smith. Jockey Javier Castellano sticks with West Coast over Sharp Azteca, even without a race over the track. Another with a great post draw and will get plenty of pace at which to run. Gun Runner will have to overcome to a bad post and more early pace than he's ever faced. Will be a massive underlay for what he has to overcome. Stellar Wind has been forced to lay close in all her California races and will finally get the mid-pack trip she's been missing for two years. I’m looking for her easily outrun her odds.