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World stockmarkets could see 65% coronavirus plunge

The emergency airdrop of fiscal and monetary support provided to fight back in the battle against the coronavirus impact on the global economy continues to prevent further dives in world markets.

This battle is, of course, not receiving a helping hand from the climbing numbers of the disease and fatalities, which at time of writing stands close to 344,000 cases globally and more than 15,000 fatalities across 187 countries.

There is a need for reality for those who might think a floor in world markets should be approaching after weeks of viscous declines that global markets can still drop much further.

For all the declines seen in world markets, some equity markets are only just approaching 2012 levels.

Should the situation get further out of control, and there is still a stronger probability of this being the case than a miraculous cure developed anytime soon, there is a likelihood world equity markets can decline as much as 65% from their peaks.

If this is accurate then, taking only US markets into account, we are still only at the half-way line of the possible market carnage.

In the event that world stockmarkets decline towards 65% from peaks, the coronavirus crisis will far eclipse the beyond-50% declines experienced during the historic Global Financial Crisis 12 years ago.

As unfavourable as the above reads, there is also an unfortunate reality that emerging markets are collectively still at the early stages of the journey for market chaos.

Both the Indian rupee and South African rand have declined to new record lows, while the Indonesian rupiah weakened beyond 3.8% at time of writing (23 March).

Emerging markets are also facing an episode of double trouble arriving from both world stockmarket volatility, as well as driving demand for the dollar.

The dollar index appears to be on the road to gradually advancing to 105, which resonates to carnage for emerging markets currencies as well as the euro, sterling, the Australian dollar and of course gold.

Questions remain over how long the dollar can remain above 100, although I do not think a direct intervention in the market is possible because this will risk spooking investors even further in a fragile environment.

Jameel Ahmad is global head of currency strategy and market research at FXTM

Bull Points

• Questions remain as to how long the US dollar can remain strong for

• EMs have not been a hard-hit by the coronavirus crisis - yet

Bear Points

• Emerging markets to be hit by both world stockmarket volatility and driving demand for the US dollar

• Emerging markets are still in the early stages of their journey towards chaos