Early Exit Polls

“Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE…. National Election Pool — representing six major news organization — shows Kerry in striking distance — with small lead — in Florida and Ohio.. MORE…”

Kerry winning every wing state except Iowa (which is tied) in the polls Drudge has. In the two biggies…

Kerry +3 in Florida
Kerry +4 in Ohio.

Keep in mind, it’s still early and these numbers aren’t firm yet.

(Note: Drudge has taken the number down but has noted they are based on a “59-41 women to men ratio” and some of the numbers really look skewed to the left. For example, there’s not a chance in the world that Kerry will take PA 60-40. Expect the numbers to swing back Bush’s way as later exit polls come out.)

“I’m told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and “doing well” in Ohio. And they don’t think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up. Fwiw.”

***Update #2***: The more I look at these numbers, the worse they look. Kerry +18 in Minnesota? By 16 in New Hampshire? By 20 in Pa?

My guess? Watch for a big swing back towards Bush in the next round of numbers.

***Update #3***: Now this is getting really interesting. Jonah Goldberg over at The Corner is saying…

“Okay. I’ve now got a third source. Here’s what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what’s going on today.

…The exit numbers I posted were posted in order for me to debunk them. The Wonkette numbers are false. Or they are at least not exit poll numbers from today. It is possible, from what two sources tell me, that they are tallies of the early voting — conducted by the Democrats. That’s plausible.”

Thing is, I think the original numbers Wonkette posted were dupes of what Drudge had up and took down and Drudge is saying he got his numbers from the “National Election Pool — representing six major news organization”. Wonkette has more numbers and they’re still all Kerry.

They’re still WAY higher than what Kerry can pull overall so there’s no way they can be all that accurate…

***Update #4***: Uh-oh, here comes the pain for Kerry =D According to the latest numbers from Drudge, Kerry’s numbers are plunging….

“More good news coming from Bush HQ: Bush is winning the Catholic vote handily –and that matters a lot in PA, MI, WI and especially Ohio. Bush is beating his percentage of the Latino vote from 2000 as well. “There will be no recount.

…Liz Cheney on The Big Story with John Gibson and is brimming with confidence. Not likely at all that a family member would be allowed to spin. She says the margin will be big in Florida, comfortable in Ohio, and that plenty of the Gore states from 2000 are in play.”

***Update #6***: From Jim Geraghty’s Kerry Spot, the word on high from a top source in the Bush campaign…

“What you’re hearing about the unreliability of exit polls is accurate. They are focused on urban areas. The exit polls need to be conducted in person, and obviously the media, even with their combined resources, have to pick and choose which polling places to conduct those exit polls. They under-poll rural and suburban areas.

They also do not count early and absentee votes, which traditionally benefit Republicans.

In the 1990s, the CNN exit polls were considered so skewed and so bad that GOP campaign strategists regulary added at least two or three points to the Republican candidate’s total.

He also noticed that the earlier garbage polls, with their 59-41 women/men breakdown, were equalized to the more likely proportional turnout, Bush would win several key states like Ohio in a rout.

Before anyone loses their optimism, wait until someone’s reputation is on the line in making these calls on the swing states.”

More from Geraghty’s sources…

“The “big cheeses” in GOP circles weren’t worried by today’s nutty exit poll scare. They know the bad, bad history of initial exit polls. In 2000, the first polls showed Bush and Gore even – Bush won by nine points. The 2000 Florida poll showed Gore winning by three, and we all know that ended with a 537 vote Bush win.

Even more glaring, in 2002, the first exit polls showed Wayne Allard down by 10 in the Colorado Senate race. He won by 10.

Catholic vote looks good for the President, particularly in Wisconsin.

Bush is getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 35 percent in 2000.

And no, exit polls don’t include early and absentee voting. Bush leads these nationwide.

There is total confidence that at the end of the night, Bush will win.”

“Larry Sabato was just on one of the DC-area local stations, and just said something shocking – the reason it took forever to call Virginia, South Carolina, and North Carolina is that the exit polls had them for Kerry.

For Kerry!

Sabato also said that the exit polls also had at least two other states “wrong” — which is not to say they had the wrong winner, but that they had results that were immediately detected as out of whack.”