As Anderson Silva‘s next opponent, Chris Weidman has just the kind of story that fits into an all-too-familiar narrative for the UFC’s promotional machine.

The 29-year-old fighter’s resume is the stuff of prodigies. He was a two-time NCAA All-American wrestler at Division I Hofstra University, showed well at the Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championship after a just one year of training, and has put together a 9-0 record in four years of MMA.

He’s young, unlike decorated wrestler Dan Henderson, and more of a complete submission grappler than Chael Sonnen. He’s also a fresh face to the fill the role of the dangerous ground specialist who possesses the skills to exploit Silva where he’s weakest: on the mat.

For the UFC, it’s really the only role conceivable against a fighter with the most “Knockout of the Night” bonuses (seven) in UFC history. The promotion is selling it like it was 2008, when Henderson took at crack at “The Spider.”

Weidman fits it so well that he’s about a 2-to-1 underdog against the most dominant champ in UFC history – despite the fact that he hasn’t competed in nearly a year, suffered a bad shoulder injury this past fall, and has one less fight on his ledger than Silva does title defenses.

Weidman (9-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) fights Silva (33-4 MMA, 16-0 UFC) at UFC 162 on Saturday at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand Garden Arena, which includes a main card on pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on FX (8 p.m. ET) and Facebook (7 p.m. ET). The challenger does have a history of rising to the occasion. He outpointed former Silva opponent Demian Maia on 11 days’ notice and upset Mark Munoz this past July.

Still, are MMA fans giving him a little too much credit? Is he superior to previous Silva opponents, or is the public suspending disbelief because they’d like to see a changing of the guard?

It may very well be that Weidman’s pedigree makes him uniquely suited to put Silva on his back. Sonnen did it almost a half-dozen times with his inferior credentials, and by the way, outstruck the champ when they first fought three years ago. Do fans and prognosticators remember what happened to Sonnen, and also to Henderson? They both got caught.

Silva, who’s defended his title a record 10 times and hasn’t lost in 16 octagon appearances, has reigned over the middleweight division for a staggering seven years because he eventually catches everybody. And if he doesn’t, it’s because he’s bored or feeling petulant. He’s also ruled because he can take a punch to deliver his surgically precise counters. He’s the No. 1 middleweight and pound-for-pound fighter in the world because no one possesses his acuity in the heat of combat.

Fans have seen Silva go up against great wrestlers, great strikers – really, everyone the UFC could throw against him. It’s always been a question of when they make a mistake, and when he concusses them.

Weidman is a wiz when it comes to using head control to initiate submission attempts and keep opponents grounded. He’s an athletic guard-passer. He’s got great timing on single-leg takedowns. But do any of these things preclude him from spending at least a few minutes on his feet with Silva over the course of five rounds? Unlikely.

Barring injury or ego-driven lack of preparation, Silva has done his work in defending D’arce and guillotine choke attempts – both Weidman favorites – and scrambling to his feet. He’s practiced keeping his distance and defending the shot. And he’s surely measured up a few leaping kicks, knees and punches, the same ones he’ll fire at his advancing opponent on Saturday night.

All this is not to say there’s some variable floating out there that could change the shape of the bout. Silva could be injured, or complacent, or have an off-night. Weidman could have his best, catch the champ in a choke hold, and then those slim odds wouldn’t look so crazy, after all. But when the buildup looks so familiar, and the history is so definitive, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that this will just be another day at work for Silva.

Other UFC 162 main-card bouts

Frankie Edgar (15-4-1 MMA, 9-4-1 UFC) vs. Charles Oliveira (16-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC): Two of Edgar’s three recent setbacks were razor-thin decisions to lightweight champ Benson Henderson, and the other saw him take dominant featherweight champ Jose Aldo the distance. The circumstances don’t change the fact that he hasn’t won a fight since 2011, so the UFC gave him a buildup opponent at 145 pounds. That’s not to say Oliveira isn’t dangerous. The Brazilian has shown flashes of brilliance in his eight-fight octagon career. But he’s also shown himself to be frustratingly uneven, and also under-skilled in the area where Edgar is strongest: wrestling. And given that Edgar needs a win, it’s where the fight will go if he’s not getting his way in the striking arena. But there’s also a very good chance Edgar could outstrike Oliveira. He’s used to getting inside on tall lanky guys, and his speed is enough to rack up points. Given that it’s a Frankie Edgar fight, there probably will be a moment where Oliveira puts him on rollers. But the former champ’s skills should carry the day.

Tim Kennedy (15-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Roger Gracie (6-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC): The former Strikeforce middleweights make their octagon debut in a matchup that’s easy to break down. Like former Strikeforce champ Jake Shields in his early career, Gracie is impressive in his ability to distract opponents just enough with striking to set up a ground fight. It’s Kennedy’s job not to get sucked into a reactive stance where he’s doing more to thwart Gracie’s attack than initiate his own. Like most, Kennedy’s a better technical striker than his opponent, and if he can find angles, it could be a short night for Gracie. If, however, the fight lingers on the ground, count on Gracie catching a submission.

Mark Munoz (12-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) vs. Tim Boetsch (16-5 MMA, 10-4 UFC): This middleweight bout is where fans get to see if Munoz is the middleweight contender he was thought to be two years ago. The fighter has bested tough opponents such as Demian Maia and Chris Leben, but has stumbled against top contenders such as Weidman and Yushin Okami. Now, he gets Boetsch, who’s just slightly below him in the division standings. The two have identical records in their recent career, winning four straight before a loss halted their drive to the title. Boetsch isn’t the wrestler Munoz is and may have a speed disadvantage in exchanges, but he has fight-altering power that’s a significant threat. Count on Munoz to keep him guessing with takedown attempts. Ultimately, this fight favors “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” late and “The Barbarian” Boetsch early.

Cub Swanson (19-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC) vs. Dennis Siver (21-8 MMA, 10-5 UFC): With a string of impressive knockout wins, Swanson could secure a title shot with a win over tough featherweight Siver, though it’s more likely that he’ll either have to fight rightful contender Ricardo Lamas or be next in line. Siver isn’t someone to be counted out, especially if he takes Swanson to the ground early and often. Swanson’s best chance is in the striking realm, where he’s shown a versatility and confidence that could make for fireworks in a rematch with champ Aldo, who gave him no chance four years ago.

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