Arizona Grapples With Persistent Dropout Problem

They are an elusive population: faces that vanish from class
yearbooks, then reappear in low-wage jobs, unemployment offices, and
even at other schools. This year, educators in Arizona received what
might be the most detailed snapshot yet of the teenagers who are
dropping out of their schools by the thousands.

A report completed by the Arizona Department of Education over a
four-year period found that almost 22 percent of students who started
high school in the state in 1996 had not graduated by 2000. The study
backed up other, recent findings that consistently have ranked Arizona
near the bottom nationwide in preventing dropouts. And it revealed wide
gaps in the graduation rates between minority and white students, as
well as similar disparities between boys and girls.

For education leaders in the fast-growing state, the research lends
new urgency to the effort to reach out to students on the verge of
quitting school for academic, economic, or cultural reasons.

In the hallways and classrooms of Tucson's Sunnyside High School,
students put a human face on Arizona's plight. The state's report put
Sunnyside High's dropout rate at more than 38 percent, though officials
at the school, who researched the data on their own, say those numbers
are inflated.

But there's no discounting the school's day-to-day challenges.
Located on the south side of the city, 89 percent of Sunnyside High's
population is Hispanic, with many students having only recently arrived
from Mexico. When their families move across town or out of Tucson in
search of work or better housing, most students pack up along with
them, said Stuart F. Baker, the school's assistant principal for
student relations.

Some students tell administrators they are returning to Mexico for
funerals or other family functions, and then don't come back. The
border is about 60 miles away.

"We're trying to talk to every incoming freshman, trying to catch
them at an early age, before they think about leaving school," Mr.
Baker said of the services Sunnyside High has set up to deter dropouts.
"We need to do a better job as a state of recording what happens to
students."

Following a Class

Arizona's latest dropout numbers were collected through what is
known as a "cohort" study, meant to track students over a four-year
period. Because the researchers collect data over the course of several
years instead of just one, cohort studies typically produce higher
dropout rates than do other estimates.

Out of 57,585 students tracked in Arizona's report, 71 percent
graduated in four years. Slightly fewer than 22 percent of the students
dropped out, or did not immediately continue their education. An
additional 6.9 percent enrolled in a fifth year of high school—
which is legal in Arizona—and just 0.3 percent secured a General
Educational Development credential.

Students who transferred did not count as dropouts in the study,
provided the schools those pupils left could provide proof that they
had re-enrolled, said Anabel Aportela, the director of research for the
state education department.

The study also revealed disparities in dropout rates among different
racial and ethnic groups. White students had a 79 percent graduation
rate, while only 59 percent of Hispanic students, 56 percent of Native
Americans, and 68 percent of African Americans finished school. It also
showed a gender gap: Seventy-five percent of female students earned
diplomas, compared with 62 percent of male students.

The overall graduation rate in Arizona had improved a bit from a
similar study four years ago, when a state study found that 69.3
percent of students finished school, Ms. Aportela said. White and
Hispanic graduation rates also rose slightly, she said. But state
officials say they believe fewer schools reported information four
years ago, and are not certain that the study used the same
methodology, Ms. Aportela noted.

The high Hispanic dropout rate did not surprise Richard G. Fimbres,
vice president for the far west region of the Washington-based League
of United Latin American Citizens, a civil rights and advocacy
organization. Securing a high school diploma is much less important to
many Hispanic teenagers across Arizona than coping with day-to-day
needs, he said.

"The Latino family is very close, and one of the responsibilities
you have is to help the family," said Mr. Fimbres, who lives in Tuscon.
"Because of the situation the family is in, the [sons and daughters] go
to work. They don't realize that if you stay in school, or even go to
community college, you can earn more."

Pinpointing dropout rates has never been easy. Last month, the
National Center for Education Statistics, an arm of the U.S. Department
of Education, released a survey of 36 states that put Texas' dropout
rate at 5 percent for a period covering one school year, in 1999-2000.
That rate was almost four times higher than the state's dropout
estimate. Texas officials attributed the discrepancy to different
methods of counting GED students, among other factors.

The national study did not provide a dropout rate for Arizona.

Even detailed studies like Arizona's state report, which drew on
student data taken from local school districts, can spark
disagreement.

Mr. Baker discounted the dropout rate of 38.3 percent assigned to
Sunnyside High School, for instance, saying his school had spent
several weeks tracking down students the state had counted as dropouts,
and found many of them had re-enrolled in schools in Arizona and New
Mexico. Of the class that enrolled in 1996-97, only about 15 percent
dropped out, he estimated.

In the years ahead, Arizona schools will be under more pressure than
ever to keep teenagers in school. State officials will use latest
dropout estimates as part of a formula for judging schools under an
accountability system, which gauges test scores, and how many pupils
quit school, among other factors. By Oct. 15 of this year, schools
could be labeled "nonperforming," and if they haven't turned in plans
to improve by Jan. 15, 2003, they could have state funding taken
away.

Arizona officials also have required schools to complete individual
profiles of students through a statewide tracking system, a step that
some say will give educators a clearer view of the dropout problem.

State schools Superintendent Jaime A. Molera believes students prone
to quitting early should be given better access to vocational
education. He also predicts that a new statewide initiative that
requires students to learn to read proficiently by 3rd grade, known as
Arizona READS (Readiness, Early Diagnosis and Intervention,
Accountability, Development of Teacher Expertise, and Support) will
curb the dropout problem in the long term by identifying struggling
students early.

"It has to start in the early grades," Mr. Molera said. "If a kid
isn't reading by the 3rd grade level, we can predict [lower] academic
outcomes."

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