ISEA Employment Report

Job Growth in California Continues at Anemic Pace

Silicon and Napa Valley Remain Sole Bright Spots in the State

For the month of October 2013, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California remains positive. Most areas in Southern California show moderate to significant job growth with a few scattered idling regions embedded in Los Angeles County, Inland Empire, and San Diego County. The Inland Empire has improved to a great extent with almost the whole region showing positive job growth and no locations shedding jobs in October 2013.

The coastal areas in Northern California still show positive job growth including Santa Rosa, San Francisco, San Jose, and Salinas. There is improvement in the Sacramento area with more regions adding jobs, while there are still scattered locations shedding jobs in October 2013. Fairfield, Stockton, Madera, Visalia, and the surrounding areas of Fresno remain positive job growth. However, Modesto is getting worse and shows significant job losses in October 2013.

The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California still shows idling with expanding positive job growth areas embedded in Inland Empire and Los Angeles County in October 2013. Most areas in Orange County and San Diego County still appear yellow (idling status) this month. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California still appears idling with a few locations showing positive job growth in October 2013 including the scattered areas near Fairfield, Napa, San Rafael, Redwood City, San Jose, Salinas and San Francisco, while more areas adding to the orange-red zone (negative job growth) including Fresno, Visalia, Hanford, Merced, Stockton and the surrounding area of Sacramento. In addition, Santa Cruz remains in the orange zone (negative job growth) and even worse, Modesto has started showing significant job losses in October 2013.

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California

INLAND EMPIRE

The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardinocounties has increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 0.9% in September 2013 to 1.42% in October 2013.

The whole region has improved to a great extent with almost the whole Inland Empire showing positive job growth. Significant job growth (more than 3%) appears in San Jacinto and El Casco. The idling regions have shrunk to Romoland, Thermal, the area between Corona and Mira Loma and the small region close to Moreno. All the other places show 1% to 3% moderate job growth in October 2013.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has slightly increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 1.18% in September 2013 to 1.45% in October 2013.

Job growth in Los Angeles County has shown improvement although the patchy pattern still exists in October 2013. Significant job growth areas have expanded to a few more locations including Beverly Hills, South Pasadena, Burbank, Pasadena, San Gabriel, and the area north to Santa Clarita. However, the small location in Cerritos, the small area south of Los Angeles and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress still remain in the orange zone (negative job growth) shedding jobs in October 2013.

ORANGE COUNTY

The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has no significant change this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 1.96% in September 2013 to 2.0% in October 2013.

The whole county still appears green (positive job growth) except for a small location near the mountain area in the eastern region of the county showing moderate job loss (-3% to -1%). More than 3% job growth appears in the following locations: Los Alamitos, Irvine, Portola Hills, an area close to the north border, the large area east to Anaheim until the mountain area and the narrow long region east to Rancho Santa Margarita. The rest of the region shows 1% to 3% moderate job growth in October 2013.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has no significant change this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 1.76% in September 2013 to 1.80% in October 2013.

Most regions in the county appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with the dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) expanding to Fallbrook, Jesmond Dene, Del Dios, Alpine, La Presa, and the region between Moreno and Casa de Oro. On the other hand, the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has shrunk to San Luis Rey, area between Lake San Marcos and Carlsbad, area in the middle along I-15, area close to Coronado and Bonita, and the south border area. No locations shed jobs in October 2013.

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

Author: Bing BaiBing_Bai@redlands.edu
Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis
University of Redlands, School of Business

Media Contact: Johannes Moenius isea@redlands.edu, 909-557-8161
Director, Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis
University of Redlands, School of Business