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NOAA has issued a La Nina Watch for the fall, and there are growing signs that the super El Nino of last winter will become a La Nina event for our next one. It is too early to say how strong a La Nina will develop, but the odds are around 3 out of 4 that we will see a La Nina winter. La Nina events tend to bring cooler …

NASA announced today that this past January was an amazing 1.13 degrees C. above the 1950-1980 average. It becomes only the 4th month ever to reach over 1 degree C above the average, with the other 3 months being in 2015. The record is mainly due to the increasing greenhouse gases, and the strong El Nino in the Pacific. Having now reached 1 degree C above the average, we are …

This is part of a new series of posts that highlight the importance of Earth and space science data and its contributions to society. Posts in this series showcase data facilities and data scientists; explain how Earth and space science data is collected, managed and used; explore what this data tells us about the planet; and delve into the challenges and issues involved in managing and using data. This series …

December 2015 is in the record books and it was not just the warmest December on record for much of the Eastern Seaboard, it broke the old records by an amount that’s best described as incredible. This is what happens when you combine the strongest El Nino event on record, with the hottest year on record globally, along with the hottest oceans on record as well. Dr. Michael Mann at …

The weather pattern is finally changing. We’ve seen 5-6 weeks of extreme warmth in the Eastern U.S., floods and tornadoes in the south, and in the West, cold and snow. The new year will be different, but it will still be a rather mild and wet El Nino pattern, just not as warm as it has been in Eastern North America. The polar jet will dip down closer to New …

Temperatures across the U.S. (at 3 PM) were over 30 degrees above average in North Dakota this afternoon. With dozens of cities reporting temperatures of 12-28 degrees above average. The map below is based on the average weather (for 3 PM on December 9th) over the last 30 years. The maps below show the temperatures over the last 30 and the last 90 days compared to normal. The NOAA Climate …

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the simulation. …

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Ask me what the Northern Hemisphere winter will be like, and I can easily tell you. As a matter of fact, It’s a slam dunk! It will be WAY above normal. I’ll say the same for the whole planet for December through January. As a matter of fact, rising greenhouse gases in our atmosphere make it quite likely that the U.S. will see an above average …

The 2015 El Nino continues to be one of the strongest ever measured and the weekly temperatures this week have passed the 1997 event, which was the strongest on record. The El Nino index is based on a running average, so technically this El Nino has not passed the 97 event, but we now have a new record of warm water in the area, where El Nino is measured. The …

El Nino is not just a warming of the surface waters in the East Pacific, the depth of that warm water increases as the thermocline lowers. This keeps nutrient rich colder waters from upwelling to the surface, impacting the very bottom of the food chain. NASA has a cool page (with much more info) where you can toggle back and forth and see the drop in chlorophyll here. How you …

Mexico’s Pacific Coast has rarely, if ever, been hit by a Cat 5 severe hurricane, but that is exactly what will happen tomorrow between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A hurricane hunter dropsonde report showed winds reaching 179 knots or 206 mph at flight level near the eye and surface winds are now near 185 mph. This truly is a monster storm. It will produce a catastrophic storm surge where it makes …

September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …

The 2015 El Nino event will go down in history as one of the strongest ever, and likely as THE Strongest. While it is impossible to give an exact idea of what this will mean for your area, we can give you some likely scenarios for the upcoming winter, with more confidence in some areas than in others. There are also some misconceptions out there that I hopefully will dispel in this post! First the …

NCAR released this video today comparing the 1997 super El Nino with this year’s up to early August. The sea surface temps. in the Nino 3.4 region now show that the temps. have reached the 97 level. The Nino 3.4 region is the region in the Pacific that is used to measure the strength of El Nino. From NCAR: September 3, 2015 | The El Niño brewing in the tropical …

The image above shows how very strong the developing El Nino in the Pacific, is compared to the 1997 event (which is the strongest on record). Since El Nino events usually peak in the later fall/winter, it sure looks like we are in for one of the strongest ever, if not perhaps a record breaker, but look closer at those two images. They are different. Notice the very warm water …

There were more flash floods across the Hill Country of Texas into the eastern part of the state as well on Monday, and a Flash Flood Emergency was declared in the Austin area. Now, look at the sea surface temperature anomalies for the globe right now, with the signs of a developing El Nino (the warm water off south America stretching westward along the Equator), and also note the warm …

The previous 12 month period was also the hottest on record and this breaks that record which was set just last month. With the daily increasing signs that a significant El Nino is brewing, we seem to be on track for another warmest year on record as well. El Nino’s really heat the atmosphere, and they tend to be among the warmer years almost always. Add in the rising greenhouse …

A tropical cyclone in early May is VERY rare in the Atlantic. Hurricane season does not start until June first, but there’s only about a 50% chance (on average) of seeing a June storm in the Atlantic Basin. That said, there are indications of a possible tropical cyclone developing east of Cuba in the next 36 hours, with several different numerical models indicating development. Some of the model guidance brings …

Unfalsifiable Belief- The Dark Side of Reason This piece on a recently published paper (in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2014. DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000018) is a must read. Click the image to read it. Could this explain the faulty reasoning of those who refuse to accept the truth that greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere, and those white lines behind jet aircraft are not government mind control chemicals? What do …

I just finished a rather detailed piece for my station’s website about El Nino and long range forecasting. If you really want to understand what an El Nino is, and how it can help make a long range forecast, then it’s worth a read. Click the image below to read it. I warn you that it is long form, and there are 4 videos embedded that you really should watch. …