Q4 2017 IPA Bellwether Report Sees Ad Spend Slow

Jan 19, 2018

Marketing budgets grew at the slowest rate in nearly two years in the final quarter of 2017, reveals the Q4 2017 IPA Bellwether Report released this Wednesday (17 January). Although growth in marketing budgets is maintained, uncertainty and cost pressures are weighing on budgets.

Report highlights

Internet remains the best performing subcategory, but main media underperforms

UK ad spend growth showed resilience in 2017, but set to slow markedly in 2018

Company financial prospects positive, but concerns over wider industry performance

The Report, which has been conducted on a quarterly basis since Q1 2000, shows that 23.9% of marketing executives raised their budgets during the latest survey period. However, there were reports of client caution and ongoing economic uncertainty weighing on sales; and these factors led to 15.2% of panelists reporting a cut to their total marketing budgets. The resulting net balance of +8.6% was down from +9.9% in the previous quarter and the lowest since the start of 2016.

Internet marketing still best performing subcategory Internet marketing sees an increase in overall spend in the report, extending a run of growth in this category to eight-and-a-half years. However, the respective net balance of +10.9% was notably down on the previous survey’s +17.0% and the lowest recorded since Q3 2016.

Mobile is on the up as well. The usage of mobile advertising continued to improve during the quarter, with the respective net balance rising to +6.0%, from +5.8% in Q3. Around 17% of marketing executives reported an increase in mobile advertising budgets, compared to 11% that indicated a decline.

ExchangeWire spoke to some of the online advertising industry’s top thought leaders about what the latest report means: Julia Smith, director of communications, EMEA, Impact Radius, says: ” What is disappointing is that this report shows uninspiring numbers, possibly to be expected after a year of controversy and negative headlines on issues such as transparency. I’d have hoped for a more positive outcome, but since marketing budgets are slowing, the marketers of 2018 are now under pressure to show a turn in the tide on these issues. To do this, it must be driven by proving that we can deliver results, transparency, and quality.”

Joanna Lyall, managing director, Mindshare UK, highlights a need to focus on outcome and performance media: “With a sharper focus on more granular analytics, each channel is under pressure to prove the incremental value it adds. While digital channels lead performance, TV still holds its own as the driver of volume and brand metrics. Clients call for faster optimisation and the management of live data is becoming the backbone of media agency operations.”

Simon Harwood, head of strategy, the7stars, outlines that “unstable times require dynamic, responsive decision making and an examination of the evidence available. The received wisdom of how to respond in a volatile market is to maintain advertising budgets and avoid over-spending in activation channels. This is because consistency of spend and message is crucial to avoid adstock depletion and maintain positive brand perception. It also takes a long time to recover sales levels after a communications break, and the effects on profitability in the mid-term are potentially more serious than those on cash flow in the short term”.

The effect of GDPR Nelius DeGroot, CEO, mporium, notes that the report shows the “political, economic, and regulatory uncertainty”. He points out that “the full impact of GDPR is not yet understood, but there is no doubt that the regulation will pose very significant challenges for many digital advertising participants. Many of the methods that have previously been used to target consumers will be impacted by the new regulation. The importance of first-party data will increase dramatically and advertisers will seek innovative solutions to ensure that advertising reach is not compromised”.

Matt Byrne, UK director, FastPay, agrees that GDPR will shape the industry’s future: “As boards start to create GDPR cash flow contingency plans to cope with significant impact on spend come May, they should consider not just how their own performance could be affected by a drop in spend, but also the impact on those higher up the payment chain, as this typically will result in slower payments to them and subsequently to their own suppliers. The good news is that this should only be a temporary blip as the industry comes to terms with the immediate reality of GDPR. But with the overall prospect of weaker ad spend this year, it is still vital for media businesses that don’t have predictable, recurring revenue models to make sure they are in the best financial position sooner rather than later.”

Mike Hemmings, marketing director, EMEA, Grapeshot, highlights that “with GDPR just around the corner, I predict we will see a rise in the adoption of new technologies with live context leading the way as a key method for driving value and relevance. Contextual marketing creates an experience with purpose and power in a way advertising simply does not. Brands that take note and step up will be the ones that continue to succeed”.

Digital spend remains strong Despite overall media spend suffering, Jo Sutherland, managing director, Fetch, notes that digital is still thriving: “Digital has extended its run of growth to become the main driver of overall media ad spend growth for brands. And it’s still growing steadily against the backdrop of unpredictable times. In fact we’re predicting that digital ad spend will surpass TV for the first time in 2018. The focus now should be on improving the quality of digital advertising to make it additive and enjoyable”.

Although internet advertising spend continues to grow, it seems as though the space faces challenging times ahead. Ed Preedy, MD, Europe, GumGum, notes that, despite this, there is still cause for concern: “The continued growth in internet spend demonstrates the valuable opportunity this channel offers in engaging consumers with creative and relevant messages at scale. However, with this growth the lowest since Q3 2016, it seems more important than ever that the industry drives genuine innovation in display advertising to sustain the health of the industry and demonstrate the return it can offer advertisers in uncertain economic times. With the Bellwether panel also expressing concerns about GDPR, it seems likely that a greater appreciation of contextually relevant online ads – as opposed to those relying on cookie data – will prove important to marketers seeking to realise the full value of digital advertising in the year ahead.”

Nick Morley, EMEA MD, Integral Ad Science, says that “it’s of little surprise the report finds that UK marketing budgets and ad spend growth are set to slow as we move into 2018. The inefficiencies in digital advertising resulted in major brands re-evaluating their digital ad spend to help drive improved performance. It’s evident from marketer demands that there is a need for accountable and transparent practices to further improve the advertising industry and its performance. In 2018, we hope to see the development of a sustainable foundation across digital advertising”.