The Morning Vertical — August 31, 2017

THE MORNINGVERTICAL

On My Mind:

There is a specter haunting the Kremlin — the specter of Vladimir Putin as a lame duck.

Sure Putin is all but certain to seek and win a fourth term in the Kremlin next March. But then what?

The Kremlin leader, after all, will turn 65 in October. If he completes another six year term as president, he’ll be 71.

Will he then change or ignore the Russian Constitution and seek a third consecutive term — a move that would effectively amount to declaring himself president for life?

Will he try to repeat the so-called “castling” and anoint a placeholder president as he did with Dmitry Medvedev in 2008-12 — and triumphantly return to the Kremlin at the age of 77?

Either is possible, but probably unlikely. And there appears to be a growing realization that, while Putin isn’t going anywhere right now, his next term in the Kremlin will probably be his last.

And what that probably means is that — like in 1999 and in 2007-8, when the prospect of a transition loomed — we are probably in for a period of high-stakes court politics, intensified intrigue, and elite instability.

In fact, as Nikolai Petrov and Donald Jensen note in separate pieces featured below (and as Yevgeny Minchenko noted in his latest Politburo 2.0 report featured in the Morning Vertical earlier this week), we are seeing evidence that this is already happening.

There is a specter haunting the Kremlin — the specter of Vladimir Putin as a lame duck.

Sure Putin is all but certain to seek and win a fourth term in the Kremlin next March. But then what?

The Kremlin leader, after all, will turn 65 in October. If he completes another six year term as president, he’ll be 71.

Will he then change or ignore the Russian Constitution and seek a third consecutive term — a move that would effectively amount to declaring himself president for life?

Will he try to repeat the so-called “castling” and anoint a placeholder president as he did with Dmitry Medvedev in 2008-12 — and triumphantly return to the Kremlin at the age of 77?

Either is possible, but probably unlikely. And there appears to be a growing realization that, while Putin isn’t going anywhere right now, his next term in the Kremlin will probably be his last.

And what that probably means is that — like in 1999 and in 2007-8, when the prospect of a transition loomed — we are probably in for a period of high-stakes court politics, intensified intrigue, and elite instability.

In fact, as Nikolai Petrov and Donald Jensen note in separate pieces featured below (and as Yevgeny Minchenko noted in his latest Politburo 2.0 report featured in the Morning Vertical earlier this week), we are seeing evidence that this is already happening.

IN THE NEWS

Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s new ambassador to the United States,has called forreestablishing regular, direct contacts between Moscow’s and Washington’s military, intelligence, and foreign policy chiefs.

NATOsays it will sendthree observers to Belarus and Russia to monitor the upcoming Zapad 2017 military exercises, but is repeating its calls on the two countries to allow broader monitoring of the drills.

A Moscow courthas rejectedan appeal to end the house arrest of former Economic Development Minister Aleksei Ulyukayev, who is facing bribery charges.

More than 300 young Russian cultural figureshave published an open letter of support for theater director Kirill Serebrennikov, who is under house arrest and facing embezzlement charges, and four other figures connected with the case.

Russia hasurged againstfurther sanctions or military action against North Korea even as U.S. allies called for more sanctions, including stiffening limits on Pyongyang’s workers in Russia and China.

Some 15 members of the Tatar Public Center rallied in the capital of Russia’s Tatarstan region, Kazan, on August 30, demanding the renewal of the Kazan-Moscow treaty on power sharing.

The Kremlin has confirmedthat U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyer sent an e-mail about a real estate project in Moscow during the U.S. presidential campaign.

News reports from Moscow say that Umar Dzhabrailov, a wealthy businessman and former member of the Russian parliament, could face criminal charges after allegedlyfiring a pistolin a luxury hotel near the Kremlin.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europehas called on Estonia to reverse its decision to bar three Russian journalists from covering an EU meeting in Tallinn next month.