Perry Watch: Pollsters say Rick Perry not ‘newsworthy’ enough to be included in presidential polls

When it comes to the pollsters, Texas Gov. Rick Perry gets no respect. According to the RealClearPolitics.com collection of polls conducted to gauge the support of 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls, Perry has been included in only four of the 71 polls conducted since November 2010.

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Poll, said that his poll included Perry back in November 2010 as part of a “wide net of people who hadn’t tossed their hats yet.” Recently, though, he said he sees Perry’s news value waning, and hasn’t included him in another poll.

“At this point, you usually have some people going beyond just saying ‘maybe he will run,’” he said. “But, clearly, if his campaign starts stirring and he goes to places like Iowa and New Hampshire, then he can gain a lot of notice and become more newsworthy.”

As Perry contemplates a presidential campaign, national polls conducted (and paid for) by others would be a valuable source of information for the Texas governor. But Team Perry isn’t getting much help from prominent pollsters who haven’t considered him the equal of other non-candidates such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who have been included in many presidential polls.

Joseph Costa, communications specialist at Gallup, said Gallup’s polls follow a more exact science when deciding which possible candidates to include as options in polls. Gallup’s poll released May 26 included both Palin and Bachmann as answers—like Perry, neither one has stated whether she will run. Perry, however, has been left out.

“There is a pretty complex science behind how we get particular candidates,” Costa said. “X amount of people have to mention them or they have to be mentioned X amount of times in the media to be included.”

Costa said that Gallup’s strict scientific approach sometimes keeps out possible candidates who want to be included as options in their polls.

“People from campaigns who have been planning to run have contacted us wondering why they’re not included,” he said.

Costa could not say whether Rick Perry has requested to be included in Gallup’s polls.

McClatchy-Marist conducted the first poll featuring Perry as an option from Nov. 15, 2009 to Nov. 18, 2010, giving registered Republicans and right-leaning independents the option to pick from a group of 2012 Republican Primary hopefuls to challenge President Barack Obama. The governor trailed behind opponents Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, with 5 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Perry.

McClatchy’s next and latest poll featured on Real Clear Politics, conducted from April 10, 2011 to April 14, 2011, did not feature Perry as an option.

The Rasmussen Reports poll released on May 19 included Perry as an option, but only in match-ups against incumbent President Barack Obama. Scott Rasmussen, founder and president of Rasmussen reports, said that polls at this point in this primary season tend to be more of a referendum on Obama than real indications of possible Republican nominees’ support.

“The president gets between 42 and 49 percent right now,” Rasmussen said of his polls’ results. “It almost doesn’t matter which Republican we put in the race.”

Rasmussen added that he thinks Perry has no quantitative advantage over other possible Republican nominees that haven’t joined the race yet. However, he said he thinks the candidate who wins the nomination won’t necessarily be the one with quantitative support right now.

“The candidate who wins…will be the one who can make people in Iowa stand up and say ‘I want to fight for this person.’ It will be the one with the personal charisma, the feistiness, and the ability to connect with people on a variety of levels,” he said. “Can Rick Perry do that? Sure.”

Rasmussen said he didn’t know who that candidate will be.

“It’s worth noting that at this point in 2007 we all ‘knew’ that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee, and Rudy Guiliani led the Republicans,” he said.