Monday, December 19, 2016

MAP IS FOR FRIDAY 12/23: BLUE H'S IN THE EAST MEAN RELATIVELY DRY, CALM CONDITIONS

5:00 AM EST 12/19- After a raucous weekend of freezing rain, cold winds, heavy rain and practically the whole kitchen sink thrown at us, it is a pleasure to announce a tranquil start to this week that officially welcomes winter!

Cool temperatures and dry conditions expected throughout the region as we head toward the holiday weekend.

If you are looking for some hope of snow out there.. the best we can do is a chance of brief snow showers Thursday night (sorry but that would be after school has ended for the day...)

The good news is, at least travelers in the Eastern U.S. will not have to contend with weather hindering their journeys on Friday 12/23 and into Christmas Eve. High pressure will build into the region with colder temperatures but should stay free of storms into Christmas Day for most of us.

Our warm and grateful wishes to all readers for a safe, incident free week ahead and quiet days for wherever the holidays take you.

Monday, December 12, 2016

JANUARY-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY 12/18.With the exception of Monday 12/12, PM highs barely crossing 40 F into midweek. HIGHS dropping to the 20s end of the week, AM lows in single digit to teens by Thursday AM.

Not immediately, but surface conditions are becoming favorable in the short term:

One essential ingredient needed to permit accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor and adjacent areas is falling into place: A solid week of serious cold in advance of any approaching storms, whether coastals or clippers.

If snow cover develops throughout Pennsylvania, Ohio and areas on north, and snow cover is added in the metro areas this week, the chances for a significant event begin to rise.

The difference between winter 2016-17 and last winter, or 2009-10:

This season, the influence of El Nino and it's associated moisture influx from the Pacific is absent from the indicators.

Instead, U.S. weather is now being strongly influenced by a La Nina- driven pattern where the Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled dramatically from last year at this time.

The rapid cooling of surface waters induces ridge of High pressure over the western U.S., and in turn drives a Low pressure trough in the Eastern U.S.

For the metros & coast: Long periods of cold, dry, windy weather. Not much rain. But when it does rain, there are deluges-- but only for 1 day.

For areas bordering the Great Lakes: Higher than normal rainfall and snowfall due to the warm waters being tapped by passing fronts.

For everyone east of the Rockies: Reduced snow cover until only just this week due to less moisture available to produce snow.

Tell me there is some hope, please.

Yes Virginia, there is always hope. Once snow cover establishes in the northern and central U.S., and a period of cold controls the East, the stage will be set for any coastal or clipper storms to "over-perform" and be provided the conditions necessary to generate potentially significant snow in the next 2 weeks. We shall be watching as we are certain many teachers & powderhounds will be also...