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A cold front pushes northwards over New Zealand during today reaching the North Island in the afternoon, it will weaken as it moves northwards however. Strong northwesterlies ahead of the front then changing colder southwest in behind.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny spells, a few showers move into the Waikato late morning then the Bay Of Plenty in the afternoon. Clearing in the evening as westerlies change southwest. Northland has light winds during the day and afternoon sea breezes, a few showers pass by North Cape for a time.
Highs: 23-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Showers develop in the morning, chance of an isolated heavy fall then clearing late afternoon or evening as fresh northwesterly winds change southeast.
Highs: 18-22

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny, late afternoon or evening northwesterly winds change fresh southerly bringing cloud and the chance of a few showers.
Highs: 24-28

Marlborough & Nelson
Brisk to strong northwesterly winds with some mid and high level cloud, chance of a shower for Nelson. Winds change fresh southeast in the afternoon about Marlborough, winds tending southwest in the afternoon for Nelson and easing with conditions becoming mainly sunny.
Highs: 23-25

Canterbury
Strong northwesterlies early on with gales in the high country, winds then change gusty southerly in the morning bringing cloudy areas and the chance of a shower. Looking to stay mainly dry. Winds gusting to gale at times Banks Peninsula southwards along the coast in the afternoon then easing in the evening. Chance of a light frost for inland areas by dawn on Saturday.
Highs: 17-20

West Coast
Early heavy rain with possible thunderstorms, easing to showers and clearing in the morning then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds.
Highs: 15-18

Southland & Otago
Showers, possibly heavy with a chance of hail in the morning (especially Southland) then easing and clearing in the afternoon for inland areas, near the coast in the evening. Strong cold southwesterly winds, gale about the coast easing later in the day. Frosts may develop overnight for inland areas.
Highs: 12-16

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly cloudy with the chance of a shower or two, west to northwesterly winds.
Highs: 19-21

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny with some high cloud, northwesterly winds for most. Afternoon northeasterlies about Hawkes Bay.
Highs: 22-25

Wellington
Mostly cloudy with gusty northwesterly winds.
High: 20

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny areas and some high cloud, a few spots of rain possible in the evening. North to northwesterly winds increase in the afternoon.
Highs: 22-25

Canterbury
Sunny areas and some high cloud, northwesterly winds increase becoming gusty about inland areas from afternoon. Overnight northwesterlies becoming strong about the high country with a risk of gales.
Highs: 22-25

Southland & Otago
Mostly cloudy about Southland, a few showers from afternoon then evening rain with the chance of a heavy fall / thunderstorm as northwesterly winds change strong westerly. Otago has some high cloud with the odd spot of rain possible, later in the evening / overnight showers move in with a gusty west to southwest change.
Highs: 20-23

A southwesterly airflow lies over New Zealand on Wednesday moving around a high centred in the Tasman Sea.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
A mix of sun and cloud, there may be an early morning shower otherwise mainly dry. The Bay Of Plenty has mainly sunny weather. Southwesterly winds.
Highs: 22-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Any early cloud / showers clears then mostly sunny with westerly winds, southwesterlies for
Taranaki.
Highs: 18-21

Eastern North Island
Sunny with cool morning southwesterlies then afternoon east to northeast winds.
Highs: 21-23

Ex Tropical Cyclone Hola departs moving southeastwards today away from the east of the North Island meanwhile a southwesterly airflow spreads over New Zealand.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly cloudy, may be a shower or two at times especially in the west. The Bay Of Plenty is mainly dry with sunny spells. Breezy west to southwesterly winds.
Highs: 23-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
A mainly dry morning then a few showers possible from afternoon, west to northwesterly winds freshen (strong near some coastal areas). Sunny spells at times.
Highs: 19-23

Eastern North Island
Morning showers clear then becoming sunny, strong coastal southwesterlies at first then easing and tending more westerly by midday. A few showers may move into Wairarapa in the evening.
Highs: 24-27

Canterbury
Morning sun and some high cloud then showers push in this afternoon as a southerly change moves through. Showers clearing in the evening for some however lingering about South Canterbury through to Banks Peninsula then clearing overnight.
Highs: 16-20

West Coast
Areas of rain, showers from afternoon. Breezy west to southwesterly winds.
Highs: 15-18

UPDATE --- Cyclone Hola's transition into an extratropical storm is breaking up the portions of severe weather with the worst winds very close to New Zealand but remaining offshore to the east away from people and property for the most part.

Gale force winds remain just east of Auckland and Northland regions but winds are fairly light over land. More than half of Hola is at sea with perhaps around 40% brushing New Zealand today, tonight and before dawn on Tuesday.

The centre is no longer becoming such a main area of focus for WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters as the low stretches out of shape which decreases the peak winds and breaks up the severe weather into small sections instead of being wrapped entirely around the centre, as it was in the tropics.

As Hola continues to morph into a new low pressure system it will see central winds easing further tonight as it moves towards East Cape. Hola may also weaken further due to interacting with the upper North Island ranges, which are breaking up the air and moisture flows feeding back into the storm centre.

Winds will pick up from the south to south west in the upper North Island as Hola's centre moves towards East Cape later today and tonight. These winds may be strong and perhaps even gale force in some exposed areas - but significantly damaging winds are no longer in our forecast for these regions. Some power cuts and branches down are still possible. People should be aware of any weather warnings for their area and also be aware of potential for high winds or heavy rain.

Now the focus becomes more about the rain, which is also heaviest at sea but rain bands (with a mix of moderate to light falls) now lie over much of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula and parts of Waikato and Bay of Plenty.

The rain bands have several peaks of heavier rainfall. Some of these may be more noticeable later today and could cause some localised flooding, but they are not widespread.

In Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, and Hawke’s Bay the main rainfall period is from later this afternoon to late tonight/very early Tuesday morning. Temporally heavy rainfall exceeding 30mm/h is possible at its maximum phase, otherwise light to moderate falls are also expected.

Generally speaking Hola is weakening due to it's current position, but rain is still likely to be heavy at times in some areas. Winds may still ramp up in places suddenly but we currently believe the worst winds will remain at sea, along with the bulk of the storm itself. It has not fallen apart - Hola still remains a serious storm just off our coastline. We're being brushed by the outer edges of the most intense parts of the storm.

Tweet from Philip Duncan at WeatherWatch - 2:10 PM - Mar 12, 2018
#Auckland's not likely to get too stormy today & I think #Hola has gone from a storm event to a rain event.
1. The centre is elongated, not circular
2. The worst winds are at sea
3. NI hills/ranges breaking the wind flow
4. But, a windier SW change later today behind Hola

Heavy rain heads south, but only half of Hola to brush upper North Island (+8 Maps)
Posted by WW Forecast Team on Mon, 12/03/2018 - 11:18

UPDATED 11:18am Monday --- Ex-Cyclone Hola, which still has Category 1 equivalent strength, is today pushing into the upper North Island bringing rain with heavy falls and pockets of severe weather too. The storm is, however, weakening as it completes the process to become extra-tropical and windshear is helping tear the centre apart.

Half of the storm will miss New Zealand remaining at sea, while the other half will brush Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Gisborne and Hawke's Bay in a weakened state - but still serious enough to prompt some severe weather warnings.

Severe weather will not likely be widespread across all those regions listed above in our view.

Damaging winds are most likely within 250kms of the centre of the low and that distance may reduce as it approaches East Cape tonight - this will make much of the worst winds lie out at sea, but may still brush or affect some populated parts of the upper North Island on Monday afternoon, evening and very early Tuesday morning before dawn.

Rain extends for about 300kms from the centre and is patchy and light at the fringes but heavy in the main area - which as of 11:15am was covering Aucland and Northland. Pockets of flooding is possible today there.

Most storms we get in New Zealand are widespread and affect large areas at once. With tropical cyclones (or ex-cyclones) the worst of the weather is only near the centre - the further away from the centre you go the less intense the weather is. With Hola half at sea it means intensity won't be as widespread as we saw with Fehi and Gita which both made direct full hits with every part of the storm systems crossing land.

Latest modelling from various global Government forecasters shows the centre of Hola likely to brush East Cape late tonight and may make landfall (where the centre of the low crosses land) or it may just brush close by to the east out at sea.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says rain is now setting in across Northland and Auckland and approaching Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty. There will be some heavy falls today as the centre moves closer. Winds will steadily pick up and for many areas it may not be overly stormy - but later today as southerly quarter winds kick in there may be some stronger gusts and winds reaching gale force. Some power cuts and trees down are a possibility in the upper North Island later today in exposed areas.

Last March Cyclone Cook made landfall in Bay of Plenty causing extensive damage to some areas there while nearby regions like Waikato and Auckland were mostly calm. These storms can be very localised.

Because Hola is going through the extra-tropical transition the centre of the low is expanding - this reduces the peak wind speeds and makes them less damaging but makes for a larger area of blustery to gale force wind. The rain is still just as intense but is being broken up more, so not all areas get the heavy rain.

It's a fast moving system, generally peaking on Monday PM and clearing by Tuesday AM. A fast moving system reduces the chances of flooding.

If the centre of Hola remains at sea then damage in New Zealand will hopefully be minimal but there is enough energy brushing the country to cause problems and severe weather so people should be prepared for power cuts, road closures, some flooding in flood prone areas and the chance of localised wind damage in some exposed areas and wind tunnels.

In a nutshell two thirds of New Zealand is unaffected by Hola while the top one third is brushed by the outer edges of the storm and some are brushed - or affected by - the centre of the storm. Some regions, like Northland and East Cape may be more exposed to heavy rain and the strong to damaging winds.

Dangerous seas/coastal conditions will affect north eastern/eastern areas between Northland and East Cape, including parts of Auckland. Northern and north western East Cape along with eastern Bay of Plenty and some eastern parts of Northland may be most exposed to the biggest swells and possible storm surge as the centre comes in/tracks by.

TIMING:
RAIN - Spreads south today to cover much of the upper North Island by mid to late afternoon. By the end of today/tonight rain will ease in the more northern regions with the bulk of Hola's rain clearly quickly into early Tuesday morning.

WIND - The bulk of the worst winds is out at sea with Hola but winds will pick up this afternoon and tonight they may become stronger for some as winds turn south to south west on the back end of the low. On Tuesday winds ease in the north but linger in the east (Like Hawke's Bay and Gisborne area) until around noon.

A ridge covers most of New Zealand today however we do have what will be Ex Tropical Cyclone Hola sliding down the northeastern side of the upper North Island during the day.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Rain with heavy falls about Northland spreading southwards this morning, reaching the Waikato and Bay Of Plenty late morning or around midday. Rain will be heaviest about Northland (especially in the east), Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel. Winds strong from the southeast with gales likely about eastern coastal fringes and offshore islands to the northeast. Winds changing south to southwest this evening, rain clears later on or overnight.
Highs: 18-22

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
High cloud thickens up this morning, rain late afternoon / evening with the chance of a heavy fall then clearing overnight. East to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 18-21

Eastern North Island
Mostly cloudy about Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, high cloud further south. Light showers about Gisborne turning to rain by midday, rain the spreads southwards this afternoon. Rain may be heavy about Hawkes Bay and Gisborne especially in the evening then clearing overnight. Easterly winds freshen, strong for a time late afternoon / evening then changing south to southwest later on.
Highs: 18-20

Wellington
Sunny areas and some high cloud, northerly winds.
High: 21

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny areas and some high cloud, north to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 21-24

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with some high cloud, afternoon east to northeast winds.
Highs: 20-23

West Coast
Mostly sunny, a few showers about Fiordland turn to rain this afternoon. Light west to southwest breezes, tending northwest further south.
Highs: 18-23

Southland & Otago
Cloudy areas for Southland with the chance of a shower, more so in the evening. Otago has mostly sunny weather with some high cloud. Northwesterly winds for most however tending northeast about coastal Otago.
Highs: 20-23

Full details about how Cyclone Hola may impact New Zealand across Monday (+12 Maps)
Posted by WW Forecast Team on Sun, 11/03/2018 - 16:38

EXTENSIVE UPDATE --- Tropical Cyclone Hola continues to track quickly towards New Zealand and will bring wind and rain across Monday before departing in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

As of 4:30pm Sunday Hola still had sustained winds of around 100km/h and gusts to 130km/h. By midnight tonight winds are estimated to be around 80km/h with gusts to 100km/h. The centre should be a few hundred kilometres north of Northland by midnight tonight with the storm tracking from the north west to the south east.

Hola has today begun the transition from a "tropical" cyclone (with a warm core) to an "extra-tropical" cyclone (with a cold core). While on the ground you don't notice this the storm structure does change a lot - with the centre becoming stretched out and elongated in the New Zealand area, this spreads energy further afield and can reduce peak winds.

Hola has a small but very potent burst of rain with it. Best estimates is that this torrential rain will brush Northland, potentially Coromandel Peninsula but could be most intense though Bay of Plenty and into the Gisborne and northern Hawke's Bay ranges. This rain may cause flooding and slips in these areas and affect State Highways.

Winds associated with this cyclone will change a lot due to the centre of the low morphing into a new system. Wind damage may be in certain areas rather than widespread, with various wind tunnels being one factor and the other factor being the damaging winds right at the centre of the low - but these winds will only cause damage near the centre, so if the centre remains out at sea so too will the worst winds.

WILL HOLA MAKE LANDFALL IN NZ?
When Gita and Fehi formed the chances of them making landfall based on long range modelling from various forecasters was easy - the storms both had high chances, in our view, of landfall due to the western approach. This storm is coming in from the north and is tracking south east - which means it runs parallel to a line that runs from Northland to Coromandel Peninsula towards East Cape. Some models show it could come very close to Northland on Monday morning, but most agree East Cape has the highest chance of the centre coming in. Believe it or not, despite being just a day out, we still need more time to fine tune this. Once the storm is within a couple of hundred kilometres it will be easier to work out - and will start to appear on public rain radar too. Hola is now less than 1000kms north of Auckland.

At the moment a direct landfall in New Zealand (when the very centre crosses land) looks less likely - but is very close in the current modelling.

RAIN
Cyclone Hola wants to naturally track just east of the North Island but a strong south east wind flow that it's running in to may guide the low closer to New Zealand - or at least push the heaviest rain back in.

Hola is transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone. One of the most obvious ways to see this in a rain map is when the rain clouds go from being all the way around the centre to being just in the southern half of the low. This is what we're seeing on Monday PM as the low really moves in and the centre changes shape and stretches out as it's flooded with cooler air and the system changes.

Some of the heaviest rain could be in the afternoon and evening through Bay of Plenty (mainly central and eastern) and then into the eastern ranges from East Cape to Gisborne to Northern Hawke's Bay (with the bulk of the rain coming in from the north). This may still shift around a bit by 100 or 150kms so not 100% locked in, but it's the best thinking today based on a number of models.

WIND
It's very complicated working out the winds if the centre of the low only brushes New Zealand. Unlike a "normal" low that we often get in NZ an ex-cyclone has the worst weather just at the centre. Once you get more than 200 or 300kms away from the centre you're really outside the risk zone for severe weather. If Hola remains at sea it means northern New Zealand will be brushed by the damaging winds from a few directions. But if Hola makes a direct hit some places could have winds blowing from all directions (eg, may start as a northerly, then turn easterly, then southerly, then end west to south west). When this happens it can be very hard to pin point which wind tunnels and ranges are going to fuel stronger winds due to the complicated terrain here.

At this stage regions most exposed to damaging winds (Ie, power cuts, trees down, perhaps some lower end structural damage like broken windows, lifting some roofing iron and damaging old weak sheds, barns etc) will be: Northland, parts of Auckland, eastern Waikato, and potentially into Bay of Plenty and East Cape too.

Remember, Hola is now turning into a new low pressure system - just like we saw with Cyclone Gita the centre of the low can dramatically change shape and that means damaging winds can vanish quite quickly during this process... and this process occurs on Monday over northern NZ.

SWELLS
The storm surge with Hola is significant with current wave heights of 9 metres at sea.

As Hola moves into New Zealand swells near eastern Northland and East Cape could be around 4 to 6 metres. Storm surge is highest at the centre so if Hola's centre remains out to sea that is a positive. ou can see below how the swells go from being extreme in a smaller area while north of NZ as a cyclone to being spread out with maximum heights dropping a little as the low changes shape around the north eastern North Island. This is more evidence the centre of the low is dramatically changing in the New Zealand area. Coastal erosion and damage is likely in some areas, especially when - or if - the peak winds, high tide and the centre of the low combine in one place at the same time. For now, that doesn't appear to be the case but seas and coastal conditions will be extremely dangerous in some eastern and northern faces beaches/marine areas on Monday in the upper and eastern North Island.

Cyclone Hola now heading to New Zealand, main threat is Monday (+8 maps)
Posted by WW Forecast Team on Sun, 11/03/2018 - 09:02

UPDATE: Cyclone Hola is over open waters and now directly heading for northern New Zealand. Cloud associated with the storm is already spreading south over the North Island although winds are not expected to really ramp up until Monday.

Hola remains a category 2 cyclone but is weakening today as it rushes south eastwards away from the equator.

Current wind speeds at the centre of the low are estimated to be averaging 100km/h on Sunday morning with gusts to 130km/h - this should drop to 65km/h by Monday making it equal to a Category 1 tropical cyclone with gusts over 80km/h. Those speeds may not sound too bad but remember these are the winds at sea - the mountains and ranges can greatly increase the gusts into severe gale and stronger and increasing the chances of wind damage. These same mountains and ranges can also bring calm conditions to others. Those just more than a couple hundred kilometres from the centre may not experience strong winds.

The general track of Cyclone Hola as it passes through New Zealand is fairly clear but the precise tracking of the centre still has some uncertainty. Precision in a compact storm like this matters, because damaging winds and flooding rains are wrapped around only the centre.
While updating this story ECMWF (Europe) updated their tracking maps and have aligned with GFS (America). Both show the centre of Hola just to the east of Northland and East Cape as it tracks by - a slight jog west could see landfall or the storm centre may remain out at sea. Highest risk for a landfall appears to be in East Cape around Monday night or very early Tuesday.

MetService, the Government forecaster in New Zealand for official tax funded warnings, says in their latest Severe Weather Outlook (issued Saturday) "There is still some uncertainty with respect to Hola's forecast track. The affected areas and associated confidence levels depicted [in the severe weather outlook] are highly dependent on Hola's track" They are expected to start issuing more detailed warnings today.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says regardless of which international tracking is the most accurate northern and north eastern New Zealand will be most exposed to a direct hit, or a close swipe. Flooding rains and damaging winds are possible in Northland, parts of Auckland, eastern Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Gisborne. There may be more moderate risks in nearby regions. However the centre of the storm being out at sea is usually a better forecast for New Zealand than a direct hit. Either way it's very close and one to monitor closely.

Hola is currently transitioning from a tropical cyclone to an extra-tropical cyclone. While this may not impact the severity of the storm too much it does shift the energy and therefore that affects how the weather might impact people. One of the most noticeable features of extra-tropical transition is how the rain bands shift from circling the entire low to mostly lying in the southern half of it. Another noticeable feature once Hola reaches New Zealand is that it will lose that perfect circular centre - as we saw with Gita the centre caused damaging winds in Taranaki where it made landfall but not so much in Wellington as the low changed shape as it moved through.

It's unclear if the very centre of Hola will make landfall or simply just swipe New Zealand to the east.

With the storm over open waters for today there may not be much more additional information/updates - however we do expect more details (including being more specific about impacts) by Sunday evening.

There could be heavy rain in the North Island on Monday and Tuesday morning as Cyclone Hola either tracks over the North Island or nearby.

Rain could extend into a number of regions although totals may not be high for all.
We look at a range of models and there is still some disagreement about the precise track of the storm in the New Zealand area. A slight shift east or west could see these rainfall totals shift. However this is the first detailed outlook for rainfall totals this Monday and into Tuesday.

Hola weakens faster than expected, still poses a serious risk to NZ by Monday (+4 Maps)
Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 09/03/2018 - 10:33

Tropical Cyclone Hola has weakened a little this morning dropping from a Category 4 to a Category 3 cyclone and the air pressure has risen from 952hPa last night to 962hPa this morning.

Cyclone Hola is now weakening overall and is tracking southwards towards eastern New Caledonia tonight and overnight. By tomorrow/the weekend Hola will begin tracking towards New Zealand.

We have good news and bad for New Zealand:

The good news is that the storm looks to weaken much earlier before New Zealand than both Gita and Fehi did. It also looks like it will go through the extra-tropical transition much further north than those two previous cyclones which can lessen the wind damage here too. Wind damage is still possible/likely but the intensity may be lower if it this transition occurs earlier.
The bad news it that all modelling continues to show a direct hit to northern New Zealand is looking very likely on Monday. In what shape and form is hard to lock in due to the fact the cyclone will be morphing into a new low pressure system that just 24 hours later may look unrecognisable to Hola. So there are a lot of moving parts.

Helping steer Cyclone Hola will be a large high to New Zealand's east. If this high shrinks a little, or moves eastwards a little, it will allow Hola to take a more eastern track to New Zealand. If the high grows a bit, expands a bit, then that could push Hola further westward towards the Tasman Sea side of New Zealand and therefore more populated places. The severe weather is mostly around the centre, further afield it's just normal cloud, wind and rain. It will take further updates across the weekend to fine tune this.

Cyclone Hola has some similarities to Cyclone Cook which hit before Easter last year in that it's a powerful tropical cyclone but also quite compact, the severe weather and heavy rain covers a small area - so the precise tracking makes all the difference with a storm like this as to who might be impacted.

We'll have updates across the weekend and will step them up from Sunday evening. Our next weather video will be out on Friday afternoon.

An anticyclone brings mainly settled weather to most of New Zealand today however Tropical Cyclone Hola is moving south from the tropics which brings thickening high cloud to much of the upper North Island. Heavy rain and gales possible for some parts of Northland overnight.

Upper North Island
Thickening high cloud with east to southeasterly winds, the odd light shower affects eastern Northland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel during the day and this risk increases towards evening. Overnight rain moves into these areas especially most of Northland with strong southeasterlies.

Lower North Island
Mostly sunny in the west and south with some developing high cloud, winds are light. Hawkes Bay and Gisborne are a bit cloudier with the risk of a light shower or two.

Upper South Island
A sunny day with light winds for most however east to northeast winds becoming quite fresh along the east coast this afternoon.

Lower South Island
Sunny areas and increasing high cloud, northeasterlies about coastal Otago and west to northwest winds elsewhere.

High pressure stretches over the South Island on Saturday while a southeasterly airflow lies over the North Island bringing mainly settled conditions.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny with southeasterly winds, some cloud may brush Great Barrier Island, Coromandel and northeastern parts of Northland with the chance of a light shower or two especially from afternoon otherwise mainly dry. High cloud starts to thicken later in the evening moving in from the north.
Highs: 23-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with southeasterly winds, some cloud possible about the Manawatu and Kapiti at times spreading over from the east.
Highs: 19-23

Eastern North Island
Mostly cloudy with a few showers, especially morning then dry spells becoming more frequent. Some sun may briefly break through at times. Southerly breezes.
Highs: 18-20

Wellington
A few morning showers clear then expect sunny spells, south to southeasterly winds ease during the day.
High: 17

Marlborough & Nelson
Any early cloud clears then sunny with easterly winds easing later in the day. Afternoon northerlies for Nelson.
Highs: 18-20

Canterbury
Any early cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather, east to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 17-18

A southerly airflow lies over all of New Zealand today, showers or rain in the east while conditions are drier and sunnier out west.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny, may be an evening isolated shower about Northland and Auckland. South to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 24-25

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Cloud breaks to sunny areas in the afternoon, a few showers possible near the ranges to the east. Breezy southeasterly winds, strong about coastal areas.
Highs: 15-21

08/03/18 - 8:30am #Update: #Hola Weakens. The Tropical Cyclone is now a severe Category 3 storm with central air pressure 962hPa. The storm has peaked and is now weakening about 12 to 18 hours earlier than expected. It's almost stalled as it turns to the south (now tracking south at 2 knots).

Cyclone Hola has rapidly intensified to a Category 4 cyclone Thursday with sustained winds of 170km/h at the centre expected to rise even further to 200km/h by tonight or Friday morning and then ramp up even higher on Friday itself.

The threat in coming days may be more for New Caledonia as Hola turns southwards, however Vanuatu's southern islands are also still at risk of more severe weather and dangerous coastal conditions.

By the weekend Hola will be tracking south to south east out of the tropics and will likely become extra-tropical on Sunday just north of New Zealand.

Computer modelling we trust has today aligned itself the most so far with this storm for the New Zealand area, still showing the bulk of the severe weather will be out at sea just to the east of the North Island on Sunday PM and across Monday - however, the modelling today also suggests northern and north eastern New Zealand (in particular eastern Bay of Plenty and East Cape) may be the most exposed to severe weather risks.

European modelling, which for the past few days put Hola out in the Tasman Sea now shows a more direct northern NZ hit, while GFS says Hola may not make landfall here, but could be close.

Our general feeling at WeatherWatch.co.nz is that everyone in the upper North Island needs to be fully aware of Cyclone Hola and how it might impact northern New Zealand late Sunday or Monday. It's looking increasingly likely that dangerous coastal conditions will affect the northern and eastern coastline from Cape Reinga to East Cape later this weekend. The big question mark that still remains is whether or not the centre of Hola will come close to produce severe weather over land. It may not be until Saturday that we can answer that more definitively.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the cyclone is still intensifying and may now reach the highest level - Category 5 - on Friday. The Fiji MetService is now forecasting this as is JTWC. WeatherWatch.co.nz said on Monday this storm was likely to become severe by Friday. Sustained winds by Friday evening could be as high as 240km/h with gusts to 300km/h. This will likely be out at sea just north of New Caledonia.

Hola will quickly lose intensity after leaving the tropics this weekend but the tropical storm is forecast to retain Category 1 strength as it approaches New Zealand later on Sunday.

A low and combined southeasterly airflow brings unsettled weather to the North Island today, calmer for the South Island although areas of cloud persist in the east at times.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Showers and sunny spells, could be a heavy fall or thunderstorm especially about the Waikato in the afternoon. Showers clearing later in the evening or overnight as easterly winds tend southeast.
Highs: 23-24

Marlborough & Nelson
A few morning showers clear, there may be some afternoon sun break through. Showers or some rain persists about the Sounds for much of the day. Winds from the southeast, strong about the outer Sounds perhaps even gusting to gale force. A light northerly may develop in the afternoon about Nelson.
Highs: 18-22

West Coast
Mostly sunny with southeasterly winds, tending southwest in the afternoon nearer the coast. Chance of an early shower for Buller otherwise mainly dry.
Highs: 20-26

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny for Southland then west to southwest winds pick up around midday bringing some increasing cloud, chance of an evening shower. Otago sees morning cloud break to sunny spells, later in the evening or overnight south to southwesterly winds freshen bringing a few showers.
Highs: 16-20

Cyclone Hola is intensifying faster than official forecasts with the storm jumping to Category 2 status Wednesday morning and more strengthening is expected.

Hola is currently lying over Vanuatu and the centre will pass very near to Port Vila today. It is moving slowly WSW today at 11m/h (6 knots). Central air pressure is estimated to be at 984hPa. The Vanuatu Met Service says winds close to the centre are estimated at 95km/h now.

On Thursday Hola will track westwards away from Vanuatu and north of New Caledonia, intensifying into a Category 3 cyclone (which classes it as "severe") on Thursday or Friday during or after Hola starts to turn southwards. Today the Vanuatu Met Service agrees with WeatherWatch.co.nz, updating their tracking to also show Category 3 likely tomorrow.

Based on reliable modelling WeatherWatch.co.nz believes the storm may peak on Friday or early Saturday.

Computer modelling remains quite divided with Hola, more so than with Fehi or Gita, but both ECMWF out of Europe and GFS out of America show Hola turning south eastwards by the end of the week and across the weekend.

The majority of data WeatherWatch.co.nz trusts suggests Hola is going to lean eastwards as it tracks towards New Zealand this weekend. We won't know if Hola might impact New Zealand until the end of this week.

Cyclone Hola has formed this morning near Vanuatu and is a category 1 tropical cyclone. Central air pressure is 994hPa.

Hola is moving south west at 8 knots and is intensifying over sea surface temperatures of 28 to 30 degrees Celsius.

Forecasts today from both Fiji and Vanuatu Met Services say the storm will reach Category 2 status by tomorrow. WeatherWatch.co.nz says Vanuatu will have heavy rain across today, damaging winds (at the lower end of the scale) and coastal conditions will become rough, especially to the west of the nation in the days ahead as Hola deepens.

As for international modelling for New Zealand, overnight ECMWF (Europe) has placed Hola tracking further west into northern New Zealand or even the Tasman Sea while GFS (America) remains consistent showing the storm will track past East Cape on Monday. It remains one to watch for New Zealand but for the next few days it will be Vanuatu and New Caledonia most exposed to Cyclone Hola.

Conditions ease over the South Island today however a low and southeasterly airflow combine to bring unsettled weather further north.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Showers and sunny spells for Northland and Auckland, chance of a heavy fall especially afternoon where thunderstorms are possible. The Waikato sees periods of rain, once again possibly heavy. Showers for the Bay Of Plenty, some afternoon sun possible. East to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 23-25

Eastern North Island
Rain with heavy falls possible, especially about the Wairarapa. Gisborne may be fairly dry for much of today. South to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 18-24

Wellington
Some rain, possibly heavy this morning then easing this afternoon. Fresh south to southeasterly winds, strong through Cook Strait.
High: 17

Marlborough & Nelson
A mostly cloudy day with fresh southeasterly winds, winds about the outer Sounds will be strong. Showers for Marlborough, rain about the Sounds especially this morning. Some afternoon sun may break through about Nelson.
Highs: 19-23

Canterbury
Cloud breaks to sunny spells this afternoon near the coast, inland conditions stay mostly cloudy all day with the odd light shower or drizzle patch. Southeasterly winds tend east to northeast in the evening.
Highs: 14-17

West Coast
Any early showers clear Buller, mostly sunny otherwise with some high cloud in the north. South to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 22-25

Southland & Otago
A mostly sunny morning then some early afternoon cloud moves into Southland as northwest winds change southwest. Chance of a light shower or two when cloud moves in. Cloud and the risk of a light shower not reaching Otago till late afternoon or evening.
Highs: 17-20