Demographic Researchhttps://www.demographic-research.org
Demographic Research is a peer-reviewed, open access journal of population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany.enSat, 25 May 2019 05:32:40Sat, 25 May 2019 05:32:40Demographic Researchhttps://www.demographic-research.org
https://www.demographic-research.org/images/rss/logo_rss_70x70.gifBack to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept (by Daniela Craveiro, Isabel Tiago de Oliveira, Maria Cristina Sousa Gomes, Jorge Malheiros, Maria João Guardado Moreira, João Peixoto)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/45/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>The UN Replacement Migration report (2000) had a significant impact in academic and civil society. Its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. The volume of migrants required to prevent population decline and sustain the working-age population was not particularly high, but the vast number of migrants needed to maintain the potential support ratio was highlighted as an unrealistic goal.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>In this paper the UN exercise is revisited and updated by deploying the concept of prospective age to overcome a strict chronological definition of the working-age population. The replacement migration approach is developed from a new European perspective, the temporal series is extended for an additional decade, and alternative operative age-group definitions are compared by projecting replacement migration estimations according to both classic (conventional) and dynamic (prospective) age limits.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>The key conclusions of the original UN publication are reasserted. In many countries the replacement migration volumes needed to sustain the decline in total population and working-age population are of an order of magnitude similar to recent observed migration. However, even under the prospective-age approach the halt of the ageing process – expressed as the maintenance of the current potential support ratio – remains an unrealistic target.<br><br>Fri, 17 May 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/45/Distinguishing tempo and ageing effects in migration (by Aude Bernard, Alina Pelikh)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/44/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Despite emerging evidence of a delay of migration to older ages, few studies have considered its impact on overall migration levels.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>This paper argues that there are two possible implications of delayed migration on overall migration levels: (1) a tempo effect leading to a temporary underestimation of the level of migration in the observed period data and (2) a migration ageing effect leading to a reduction of higher-order moves because the exposure to migration is shifted to older ages when the probability of moving is lower.<br><br>METHODS<br>Combining hypothetical scenarios with empirical evidence from a range of countries in Europe, North America, Australia, and China, the paper demonstrates the relevance of tempo and ageing effects to migration analysis and proposes a framework for conceptualising these processes.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Our analysis suggests that both tempo and ageing effects are likely to occur if the general trend is towards later ages at migration. We show, however, that all-move data such as those collected in censuses is not suitable to analyse tempo effects because changes in migration behaviour are order specific. Drawing on retrospective survey data, we show that in 25 of 26 European countries considered in this paper, individuals who are late in leaving the parental home are less likely to progress to the second move and, as a result, report a lower number of migrations in adulthood than early movers.<br><br>Thu, 16 May 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/44/Taking birth year into account when analysing effects of maternal age on child health and other outcomes: The value of a multilevel-multiprocess model compared to a sibling model (by Øystein Kravdal)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/43/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>When analysing effects of maternal age on child outcomes, many researchers estimate sibling models to control for unobserved factors shared between siblings. Some have included birth year in these models, as it is linked to maternal age and may also have independent effects. However, this creates a linear-dependence problem.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>One aim is to illustrate how misleading the results may actually be when attempts are made to separate effects of maternal age and birth year in a sibling analysis. Another goal is to present and discuss the multilevel-multiprocess model as an alternative.<br><br>METHODS<br>Infant mortality was chosen as the outcome. Births and infant deaths were simulated from a multilevel-multiprocess model that included two equations for fertility, with a joint random effect, and one equation for infant mortality, with another random effect. The two random effects were set to be correlated. The effects of the independent variables were taken from simpler models estimated from register data. Various sibling models and multilevel-multiprocess models were estimated from these simulated births and deaths. In some simulations, two standard assumptions about the random effects were intentionally violated.<br><br>Wed, 15 May 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/43/The changing pattern of cohabitation: A sequence analysis approach (by Paola Di Giulio, Roberto Impicciatore, Maria Sironi)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/42/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>During the last decades, nonmarital cohabitation has diffused throughout the industrialised world, although not uniformly. The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) predicts a convergence of cohabitation patterns towards a final stage in which cohabitation and marriage will be almost indistinguishable.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>This paper contributes to the literature on the convergence of cohabitation patterns across countries by testing whether countries are becoming more similar over time, as suggested by the SDT.<br><br>METHODS<br>We use sequence analysis and cluster analysis techniques to classify different patterns of cohabitation in France, Italy, Norway, Bulgaria, and the United States. Using data mainly stemming from the Gender and Generations Surveys (GGS), we analyse women’s patterns of behaviour during the five years following the start of their first cohabitation, over a time span of three decades (1970s–2000s).<br><br>RESULTS<br>On the basis of sequencing the events of childbirth, marriage, and separation we are able to identify five different clusters corresponding to different ways of going through the cohabitation experience.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Our results suggest that there is a general decreasing trend of cohabitation as a pre-marital experience and an increasing trend of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage or as a free union. However, within this homogeneous trend, persistent peculiarities at the country level suggest that the selected countries are not simply at different stages of the same trajectory.<br><br>Tue, 14 May 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/42/Impact of delayed effects on human old-age mortality (by Andrea Verhulst, Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, Alberto Palloni)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/41/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>There is growing empirical evidence supporting theories of developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD). However, the implications of DOHaD conjectures for aggregate population patterns of human disease, disability, mortality, and aging are poorly understood.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>We empirically test two predictions derived from a formal model of aggregate population-level impacts of DOHaD. This model predicts that populations potentially inﬂuenced by delayed effects should experience singularities in their adult mortality patterns that can be empirically detected from aggregate data.<br><br>METHODS<br>We test predictions using a large mortality database for populations in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region, spanning nearly one hundred years of mortality history.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Results are consistent, within explicit bounds of uncertainty, with expected patterns. We ﬁnd that younger cohorts in countries whose mortality decline starts more recently experience deceleration in survival gains at older ages, attenuation of the rate of aging at older ages, and a decline in the association between early childhood and adult mortality.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Results point to the importance of adverse early conditions for human longevity. Future research should shed light on the impact on morbidity, disability, and healthy life expectancy.<br><br>COMMENTS<br>To our knowledge this is the ﬁrst time that implications of DOHaD conjectures for populations' mortality patterns are formulated precisely and empirically tested with aggregate population data.<br><br>Fri, 10 May 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/41/IRS county-to-county migration data, 1990‒2010 (by Mathew Hauer, James Byars)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/40/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>The county-to-county migration data of the Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) is an incredible resource for understanding migration in the United States. Produced annually since 1990 in conjunction with the US Census Bureau, the IRS migration data represents 95% to 98% of the tax-ﬁling universe and their dependents, making the IRS migration data one of the largest sources of migration data. However, any analysis using the IRS migration data must process at least seven legacy formats of this public data across more than 2000 data ﬁles – a serious burden for migration scholars.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>To produce a single, ﬂat data ﬁle containing complete county-to-county IRS migration ﬂow data and to make the computer code to process the migration data freely available.<br><br>METHODS<br>This paper uses R to process more than 2,000 IRS migration ﬁles into a single, ﬂat data ﬁle for use in migration research.<br><br>Tue, 07 May 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/40/Changes in gender role attitudes following couples' residential relocations (by Sergi Vidal, Philipp M. Lersch)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/39/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Residential relocations of couple households are associated with increases in objective gender inequality within families in paid and unpaid work. Little is known about how couples’ relocations affect subjective outcomes such as attitudes.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>We examine whether gender role attitudes change when families move residentially in Britain, empirically addressing potential explanations. We also assess heterogeneity in outcomes by relocation distance and relocation motive.<br><br>METHODS<br>We use linear fixed-effects regression on a representative sample of 6,415 partnered women and 6,220 partnered men from the British Household Panel Survey (1991–2007).<br><br>RESULTS<br>Our results show that, on average, an individual’s gender role attitudes were not significantly altered following a couple’s relocation. As an exception, we find that when couples exclusively relocated for the female partner’s job, men’s gender role attitudes became more egalitarian post-relocation. Preliminary evidence also suggests that women’s gender role attitudes are potentially affected by their exposure to residential contexts.<br><br>Tue, 30 Apr 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/39/Variations in migration motives over distance (by Michael Thomas, Brian Gillespie, Nik Lomax)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/38/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>It is often assumed that long-distance migration is dominated by employment or educationally led motives and that local-scale mobility is linked to family and housing adjustments. Unfortunately, few empirical studies examining the relationship between motives and distance exist.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>Recognising that the relationships between migration motives and distances are likely to be context-specific, we explore and compare the relationship in three advanced economies: the United Kingdom, Australia, and Sweden.<br><br>METHODS<br>We use three sources of nationally representative microdata: the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) (2009–2018); the Australian Household, Income and Labour Dynamics (HILDA) survey (2001–2016); and a Swedish survey of motives undertaken in spring 2007. LOESS smooth curves are presented for each of six distance–motive trends (Area, Education, Employment, Family, Housing, and Other) in the three countries.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The patterns offer some support to the common assumptions. In all three countries, housing is the most commonly cited motive to move locally. Employment is an important motive for longer-distance migration. Yet, interestingly, and consistent across the three national contexts, family-related considerations are shown to be key in motivating both shorter- and longer-distance moves.<br><br>Thu, 25 Apr 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/38/The living arrangements of Moroccans in Spain: Generation and time (by Chia Liu, Albert Esteve, Rocío Treviño)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/37/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Southern Europe experienced large-scale migration in the recent decades. Compared to regions with a longer migration history, the assimilation and socialization processes of family formation and age of childbearing for young adults of migrant background is underexplored. Spain, in particular, is now home to a burgeoning second generation of which little is known.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>This study explores the family living arrangements of Moroccans in Spain by migrant generation and time, using census microdata from the Integrated Public-Use Microdata Series International (IPUMS-i) and the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). We examine the living arrangements as an estimate for family processes for young adults of Moroccan origin between ages 20 to 34 separately by sex.<br><br>METHODS<br>Taking a cross-national perspective, we examine the level of coresidence with parent(s), spouse, and child(ren) for young adults aged 20 to 34 in three groups – Moroccans in Spain, nonmigrants in Morocco, and nonmigrants in Spain – using binomial logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Results show that 1.5 and second generation Moroccan women transition into adulthood at younger ages than their Spanish counterparts, except for the ones who are highly educated. The differences in living arrangements between Moroccans in Spain and the nonmigrant Spanish population widened between 2001 to 2011, possibly due to the fact that coresidence with kin is subject to the influence of migrant stock flow.<br><br>Wed, 24 Apr 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/37/Gender-specific effects of commuting and relocation on a couple's social life (by Natascha Nisic, Stefanie Kley)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/36/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>This contribution analyzes gender-specific effects of long-distance commuting and residential relocation on the social integration of couples. Research on geographical mobility in the partnership context focused very much on gender differences of regional mobility with respect to labor market outcomes and economic success. The effects of regional mobility and their possibly gendered impact on social networks and the social integration of households have been understudied. However, one would expect that regional mobility imposes severe temporal and geographical restrictions on the formation and upholding of social relationships. Moreover, these restrictions can be assumed to differ by gender due to differential involvement of women and men in market and domestic care work, which also present different opportunities and constraints for maintaining and forming social contacts.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>Against this background we analyze the effects of internal migration and job-related commuting on couples’ social relationships.<br><br>METHODS<br>The analysis is based on the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) waves 1997–2008. We first give extensive descriptive overview on the social structure of mobile couples and the amount and perceived quality of social contacts men and women maintain. Second the effects on quality (i.e., the satisfaction with one’s social life) are analyzed within a panel fixed-effects framework.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Results indicate that regional mobility affects women more than men. In particular women who move for her partner’s job prospects suffer losses in perceived quality of social life. Female commuters are dissatisfied if they have low qualification and are only weakly integrated in the labor market. Among male commuters time restrictions due to high workload are detrimental to their social life.<br><br>Thu, 18 Apr 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/36/Family arrangements and children’s educational outcomes: Heterogeneous penalties in upper-secondary school (by Raffaele Guetto, Nazareno Panichella)https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/35/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>This paper studies whether new family patterns fostered inequality of educational opportunities in upper-secondary education in Italy.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>To analyse the association between children’s educational outcomes and a wide range of family arrangements, including the time of exposure to marriage (never married, married before or after the birth). Empirical analyses also consider whether these demographic characteristics of the origin family more strongly affect children from more or less well-off families, and whether these effects change when different educational outcomes are considered.<br><br>METHODS<br>Analyses are based on the Italian Labour Force Survey (2005–2014) and apply Linear Probability Models on a sample of 123,045 children aged 15 and 16.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Children living in single-parent households or with two cohabiting biological parents have worse educational outcomes compared to children of two married biological parents. Children of highly educated parents are more penalized if access to the most prestigious academic track is considered, whereas the penalty is stronger among children of low-educated parents if the risk of not being enrolled in upper-secondary schools that give access to university is analysed. Finally, the analysis of the exposure to marriage suggests that social selectivity may drive the negative effects of cohabitation.<br><br>Thu, 18 Apr 2019 00:00:00https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/35/