I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, November 30, 2012

60-min system is still on a buy signal, but that signal is weakening. Monday should be a telling day either way (is this consolidation before a new breakout above the 50 DMA, or has this sharp move up exhausted itself?).

Stepping back and thinking about the bigger picture: I have been of the opinion that we are now in an Intermediate degree correction, and I have been saying that this pullback will be like "the Apr-June 2010 pullback and not the May-Oct 2011 pullback" in terms of severity.

But I think there is a case to be made that it might be similar in form as well. Here are my current thoughts as to how this pullback might count like:

And here is a look at the Apr-June 2010 pullback. While the recent move down is not analogous to the 2010 'flash crash' in terms of severity, it is certainly similar in form (fast move that accelerated into a spike bottom without even a hint of divergence on a daily chart). The current move up is a sharp retracement to alleviate the deeply oversold condition from a local perspective, and I think it is similar to the move up in early May 2010:

60-min system is still on a buy signal, but that signal is weakening. Monday should be a telling day either way (is this consolidation before a new breakout above the 50 DMA, or has this sharp move up exhausted itself?).

Stepping back and thinking about the bigger picture: I have been of the opinion that we are now in an Intermediate degree correction, and I have been saying that this pullback will be like "the Apr-June 2010 pullback and not the May-Oct 2011 pullback" in terms of severity.

But I think there is a case to be made that it might be similar in form as well. Here are my current thoughts as to how this pullback might count like:

And here is a look at the Apr-June 2010 pullback. While the recent move down is not analogous to the 2010 'flash crash' in terms of severity, it is certainly similar in form (fast move that accelerated into a spike bottom without even a hint of divergence on a daily chart). The current move up is a sharp retracement to alleviate the deeply oversold condition from a local perspective, and I think it is similar to the move up in early May 2010:

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