Outside Group Involvement in GOP Contest Skyrockets Compared to 2008

Romney Advertising Dominates in Florida;

General Election Advertising Sets Furious Pace

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) Jan. 30, 2012 – The overall number of GOP presidential ads on the airwaves this election year is comparable with 2008, but who is paying for them so far has changed significantly. The influence of SuperPACs in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination is clear, with a more than 1600 percent increase in interest-group sponsored ads aired as compared to 2008.

In the first presidential election cycle following the Supreme Court’s landmark decision in Citizens United v. FEC, interest group involvement in the presidential air war has skyrocketed from 3 percent of all ads aired in the 2008 Republican nomination race to nearly half (44 percent) of all airings. Table 1 shows the total number of GOP presidential ads (through Jan. 25) was just shy of 70,000 airings on broadcast television and national cable in both years. Candidate-sponsored ads, which made up 97 percent of the total in 2008, declined to 56 percent of the total this year. An estimated $28.9M has been spent to date, a substantial drop from 2008.

Table 1: Advertising in GOP Presidential Primaries

Year

Candidate

Interest Group

Total

Totals are from 1/1/07-1/25/08 compared to 1/1/11-1/25/12.
Amounts include broadcast television and national cable spots.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

2008

Ads Aired

66,557

1,763

68,389

Row %

97.4%

2.6%

100%

Cost

$48.7M

$1.1M

$49.8M

2012

Ads Aired

39,429

30,442

69,871

Row %

56.4%

43.6%

100%

Cost

$13.7M

$15.2M

$28.9M

% volume increase

-40.8%

1626.7%

2.2%

% spending increase

-71.9%

1281.8%

-42%

One reason the number of GOP candidate ads has fallen so much since 2008 is that the Romney campaign is not shelling out the cash it did the first time he ran for president. (He was on the air in Iowa for much of 2007, but he did not start advertising this time around until December 2011). Table 2 compares the campaigns with the largest number of candidate-sponsored airings across the last two GOP primaries.

Totals are from 1/1/07-1/25/08 compared to 1/1/11-1/25/12.
Amounts include broadcast television and national cable spots.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

Ad Airings

Est. Cost (thous.)

Ad Airings

Est. Cost (thous.)

Gingrich

3,891

$972

Giuliani

6,645

$5,319

Huckabee

5,825

$2,611

McCain

10,178

$7,179

Paul

5,226

$2,802

5,638

$1,993

Perry

11,690

$2,697

Romney

34,453

$28,351

15,035

$7,341

Santorum

3,067

$700

Thompson

4,032

$2,225

Totals

$66,359

$48,487

$39,321

$13,703

Even though Romney has not been on the airwaves as much as he was in 2008, his campaign and its allies have dominated the airwaves in Florida, airing almost 13,000 ads on broadcast television across the state, as of Wednesday, the 25th (Table 3). Gingrich and his interest-group allies have aired only about 200 spots, with Paul and Santorum out of the broadcast television game.

Table 3: Spot Count in Florida Primary

Gingrich

Romney

Totals are from 1/1/11-1/25/12. Amounts include broadcast television and national cable spots.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by Wesleyan Media Project

Market

Cand.

IG

Cand.

IG

Dothan

13

Ft. Myers

751

857

Gainesville

569

Jacksonville

72

945

889

Miami

12

935

157

Mobile

733

Orlando

74

1,074

876

Panama City

748

Tallahassee

607

Tampa

1

50

1,234

926

West Palm Beach

1

887

567

Total

14

196

5,826

6,942

“One reason we’ve seen the Florida polls shift in Romney’s favor over the past few days, when the national polls have not, is that his message has dominated the paid airwaves in the Sunshine State,” noted Travis Ridout, associate professor of political science at Washington State University and director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “Gingrich—and Paul and Santorum—have had a much more difficult time making themselves heard.”

In South Carolina, however, Romney’s ad advantage was not nearly as great (Table 4). Romney and interest-group allies aired about 8,000 ads, compared to 5,000 for Santorum, about 4,500 for Gingrich and 3,000 for Paul. All candidates benefited from sympathetic interest groups airing spots on their behalf; Romney and Gingrich benefited the most while Paul benefited the least.

Table 4: Spot Count in South Carolina Primary

Gingrich

Romney

Paul

Santorum

Totals are from 1/1/11-1/25/12. Amounts include broadcast television and national cable spots.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

Market

Cand.

IG

Cand.

IG

Cand.

IG

Cand.

IG

Augusta

0

552

0

424

0

0

0

0

Charleston

528

235

912

1,092

530

164

864

599

Charlotte

4

257

2

Columbia

490

1,000

624

888

Greenville

512

407

694

694

858

242

543

671

Myrtle Beach

355

513

765

1,166

404

171

772

671

Savannah

455

562

455

584

0

0

0

Total

2,340

2,273

4,083

3,962

2416

577

3067

1941

The outside group most heavily involved in the Republican nomination race has been Restore Our Future, Inc., a pro-Romney group that has spent an estimated $8 million to air over 13,500 spots on his behalf in media markets in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Michigan (Table 5). Make Us Great Again, a pro-Perry group, spent an estimated $2.2 million on 4200 spots aired in Iowa and South Carolina, while Winning Our Future, a pro-Gingrich group, has been involved in advertising almost as heavily. Stephen Colbert’s SuperPAC, Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow has aired 11 spots on broadcast stations and national cable.

Table 5: Top Groups Involved in GOP Nomination Race

Group

Estimated Cost

Number of Spots

Totals are from 1/1/11-1/25/12. Amounts include broadcast television and national cable spots.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

Restore Our Future, Inc.

$8,020,610

13,550

Make Us Great Again

$2,160,460

4,212

Winning Our Future

$1,614,390

3,914

Red, White, And Blue Fund

$918,070

2,887

Citizens For A Working America PAC

$477,110

1,287

Our Destiny PAC

$1,324,340

811

Santa Rita Super PAC

$166,990

744

NumbersUSA

$55,610

282

AFSCME

$362,470

275

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has aired over 5,000 ads at an estimated cost of $1.4M, targeting residents of 25 markets in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Table 6 displays the top ten markets of airings.

“Advertising market placement is like a tell, and it is clear that the Obama campaign views these battleground states as most important at this stage of the game,” said Michael Franz, associate professor of government at Bowdoin College and director of the Wesleyan Media Project.

However, the Obama campaign is not the only one already advertising for the general election (Table 7). Americans for Prosperity has aired over 5,000 spots in battleground state markets, while Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies has aired over 4,200 spots in similar markets. The American Petroleum Institute also aired around 1,500 spots.

“I can’t remember a time when so many groups were so involved in general election advertising so early,” noted Erika Franklin Fowler assistant professor of government at Wesleyan University and director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “An underappreciated fact about this year’s contest is that outside groups are spending more money per ad than candidates, which makes examining the balance of actual ads voters are seeing very crucial when attempting to tease out their influence.”

Table 7: Top Non-Candidate General Election Spenders

Sponsor

Ad Airings

Markets

Est. Cost

Totals are from 1/1/11-1/25/12. Amounts include broadcast television and national cable spots. Data reported here do not cover local cable buys, only broadcast television and national cable buys.
All cost estimates are precisely that: estimates. CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

About this Report

Data reported here do not cover local cable buys, only broadcast television and national cable buys. All cost estimates are precisely that: estimates.

The Wesleyan Media Project provides real-time tracking and analysis of all political television advertising in real-time. Housed in Wesleyan’s Quantitative Analysis Center –part of the Allbritton Center for the Study of Public Life – the Wesleyan Media Project is the successor to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which disbanded in 2009. It is directed by Erika Franklin Fowler, assistant professor of government at Wesleyan University, Michael M. Franz, associate professor of government at Bowdoin College and Travis N. Ridout, associate professor of political science at Washington State University.

The Wesleyan Media Project is supported by grants from The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and Wesleyan University. Data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project using Academiclip, a web-based coding tool. All spending amounts are estimates of broadcast and national cable spots.

Periodic releases of data will be posted on the project’s website and dispersed via Twitter @wesmediaproject. To be added to our email update list, click here.

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