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Pierre Berthelot: Macron's foreign affairs policy and the Middle East

Epos converses with Dr. Pierre Berthelot

by Eleonora Lamio(EPOS)

EPOS Conversations

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EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: What will Macron do concerning terrorism which has hit France lately? Â Which defence and security decisions will he take?

Pierre Berthelot: The issue of terrorism was one of Macronâ€™s sporadic weak points (24% at the first round of the Presidential elections), as he is mainly a specialist in economics. However, this theme was strongly debated during the electoral campaign and has had a very relevant role in France since 2015 (since this year there have been 250 dead and hundreds of injured due to terrorism). This has permitted the extreme right candidate, Marine Le Pen (21% at the first round), to gain the second round, and the right candidate, FranĂ§ois Fillon (20% at the first round) to end his campaign with an honourable score, despite his financial and personal scandals. Macron has announced and launched a task force which assembles the main intelligence services around a unique coordinator. Nevertheless, the fight against terrorism is a long-term battle, and an internal and external action must be led. Macron does not want to use radical methods, for instance, the immediate expulsion of foreign people with an â€śS fileâ€ť (which means to be followed for political or religious radicality). The new president is, for now, partisan of the application of the law, since he considers that a suspect has the right to have a process; and after that, â€śhuman intelligenceâ€ť will allow fighting against terrorism, and he is right.

Nowadays, some suspect him to be lenient regarding â€śpolitical Islamâ€ť and affirm that he will not be ready to cope with this phenomenon. Of course, we should not confuse terrorism with Islamism, but if this confusion keeps on growing as it is now happening in France, we risk to weaken the fight against the monstrous rise of radical political Islam which is the jihadist terrorism.

Concerning the field of defence, he will keep devoting 2% of the national budget to this sector. At the same time, he has nominated Florence Parly as Minister, someone who does not have a relevant expertise in this field but is known for her knowledge of financial issues, which means that she will monitor any superfluous expense. On top of that, rooms for manoeuvre are tight due to a financial deficit smoothed by the previous government more than expected.

EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: What will Macron do to improve the integration of the foreign citizens in France?

Pierre Berthelot: To improve foreignersâ€™s integration and overall French citizens with foreign origins is a priority. It is one of the flagrant failures of our country in the last 30 years and no government has solved this issue despite a large amount of resources, tens of thousands of euros or more, spent in in the field of â€śPolitique de la villeâ€ť (integration policies). Looking at his future actions and results we will see if Emmanuel Macron will be able to change something regarding this issue; even if one of his ideas is to develop and promote the entrepreneurship. For example, he promoted the emergence of private drivers, like UBER ones, which, for a large part, come from delicate neighbourhoods where important foreign populations live. However, we wonder if it is a long lasting and ethic economic model since their income has fallen, the social protection is weak and the amount of work important.

However, the concern of the ones that did not support him came from the fact that he said that the recognition of Palestine as an actual State will be useless and that among the ones that supported him figured some pro-Israel groups, related to the entrepreneurial world for instance. Plus, the most disadvantaged ones (which are many among these populations) fear a social regression because of Macronâ€™s economical position (he is very close to the right). Finally, among the 30 members of the new government, only one person comes from the Arabic and/or Muslim world and has a minor position. Therefore, he does worse than Sarkozy, the old right President less loved by this Arabic and Muslim population, but who had various persons in his government who came from this culture (like the Minister of Justice); or even FranĂ§ois Hollande who had 3 Muslim Ministers. However, it is true that the number of deputies coming from this community increases a lot. And we still have to wait for the nominees of the high positions of the public function.

EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: Which will be Macronâ€™s position on the Syrian crisis, considering the delicate relationship between Russia and the United States and their role in this one?

Pierre Berthelot: Regarding the Syrian crisis, Franceâ€™s position is very delicate since in the last years it has been marginalised while it had a real expertise and an important influence since Syria was an ancient territory under French influence (from 1920 to 1945). Plus, France was, with Jacques Chirac, the only Western country to attend the memorial service of Hafez El Assad, father of the current Syrian President.

France has been discredited when ready to respond to the chemical attacks attributed to the Syrian regime in 2013, it had to step back at the last moment because it was left alone by the Americans. France has no longer the military capacity to act alone, so it must consider an alliance, but with who? The United States? It is hard to consider Trump as a reliable ally, and for him to have a long lasting and coherent vision. The European Union? The EU has not defined a united line regarding the Middle East, and we will see if Macronâ€™s efforts will allow him to contribute to the construction of a strong one. Russia or Iran, Syriaâ€™s mains allies? Macron turned to this solution, and recently affirmed, in an interview regarding foreign policy, that Bachar Al Assad wasnâ€™t Franceâ€™s enemy, but Syrian peopleâ€™s one, and that there may be a negotiation about Syriaâ€™s future, with however an exception, a â€śred lineâ€ť: the use of chemical weapons. In this case France could act on its own, however, we know that Obama said the same thing and we saw what actually happened in 2013.

Likewise, for the moment Macron doubts that there is a credible alternative, and affirms that he has not yet met the right actor, which is true, since the oppositions were not able to bring out one or two credible figures in six years of conflict! So, Macron seems to get close to Russia, keeping, however, a distance from the Ukrainian crisis. In brief, he seems to prefer a realistic attitude and adopts a centrist position, as he already did in his electoral campaign.

EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: What will France do in Libya with the new presidency?

Pierre Berthelot: Concerning this complex issue, he will certainly listen to Jean-Yves Le Drian, the new Foreign Affairs Minister and above all the old and influent Socialist Defense Minister of FranĂ§ois Hollande (2012-2017). With a few others, he is one of the most long-lasting Ministers and he is considered the best for his role. In fact, Hollande, when he discretely replaced Jean-Marc Ayrault who was his Prime Minister, thought about choosing the faithful Le Drian instead of Valls, who he bewares, quite rightly! With him, weapon market exploded and France managed to sell its famous Rafaels planes, which were considered unmarketable, to Egypt, India and Qatar. Le Drian followed meticulously the Lybian crisis and is afraid of France being again military involved, having to face the anarchy which reigns in Lybia. However, he knows that this is complex, since all French forces are currently involved abroad (mainly in Africa and in the Middle East) and if we want to respect our defence budget around 2% (which also includes the internal missions which have increased since the attacks of 2015).

However, the shy reconciliation made with Putin, following his visit to France, may be achieved in Lybia, since Russia was recently involved at the sights of general Haftar, whom France discretely supported (officially France supported the official government supported by the United Nations). Moreover, Macron also criticised the French and British intervention of 2011 in Lybia, and in general the â€śneo-conservativesâ€ť, who were in favour of using force to impose human rights. He thinks that these ideas too often influenced France lately, and failed, as we have seen it, in Iraq, Lybia and South Sudan. All this shows that he will act prudently and will not be influenced by false images and data furnished by independent organisations or commissions, which is what most actors do in foreign policy.

EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: Which kind of foreign policy will Macron lead with North African countries? And with the ones from francophone France?

However, Morocco, especially since Mohamed VI, has a real â€śAfrican policyâ€ť, especially in the economic field. This means that there are some complementarities with Paris, but also a sort of competition. Generally, regarding Africa and the â€śfrancophonieâ€ť, there could be only a symbolic fracture, since France can not step back and can not be involved since there are not enough financial means.

EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: Which role will the OIF have in Macronâ€™s foreign policy?

Pierre Berthelot: The OIF is considered by the majority a failure. An empty shell, which costs a lot and is useless. Critics multiply since the election of Michelle Jean, globally considered incompetent and spender, especially for her own needs. After the long period of Abdou Diouf (previously president of Senegal, three mandates), there was the need of a fresh presidency, and electing a woman, young, with a previous prestigious title (general governor of Canada), and original from Haiti, seemed a good option. However, she does not deeply know Africa, which is the heart of OIF.

Henri Lopes, for a long time ambassador of Congo-Brazzaville in France, who knows very well the African security issues, was a better candidate and had the support of many African countries but Hollandâ€™s veto. This because he wasnâ€™t very young at the time of the election for President General of OIF in 2014. On top of that, he was linked to a president considered authoritarian, who was suspected of having rigged the precedents elections in Congo.

The election of Jean marks the end of a tradition: the one that stated that the political charge was taken by an African, and the executive one by a francophone, coming from a rich country, except France, which means Belgium, Switzerland or Canada (who became the largest financial contributor of OIF after France, which has influenced the election of Michelle Jean).

EPOS, Eleonora Lamio: Do you think that Macron will develop a strong European foreign policy focused on the Mediterranean?

Pierre Berthelot: I donâ€™t think that the Mediterranean is a priority for the EU, which is much more focused on Central and Eastern Europe, especially under the German influence. Probably it is a mistake. It is from the Mediterranean that come the major threats for the EU and France. But the EU is less realistic than ideological, and under the German impulse was torched the idea of a â€śMediterranean Unionâ€ť proposed by Sarkozy in 2007, and instead created the Union for the Mediterranean with more than 40 states, including the Scandinavian ones, so far away from our geographical area. On top of that, there should be a common political line, which is absolutely not the case, especially regarding the immigration crisis, Turkey, Syria, Islam, borders, etcâ€¦ If Macron wants to get the Member States together, there must be a harmonisation of the political and economic doctrine, which is far away from what we have now. Maybe he will opt for a â€śreinforced cooperationâ€ť, integrating only some of the Member States which share his political line about concrete projects, in order to act quickly. By tradition, France has an ambitious Mediterranean politic because it is in its interest and in the ones of the other States of the sea shores.