Welcome to my Yard, where you can follow my look at the week's NFL games, how I view the Vegas points spread and which teams I see as the best value

November 05, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 6: Around the League

I’m beginning
to wish I wasn’t so hooked on picking teams against the spread. Having been
sitting pretty with a 10-3 record as Week 4 came to a close, I’m now 10-7, on a
four game skid, including 0-3 last week. Last week...hmmm.

Cleveland
decided to go against type against the Giants in New Jersey. They were 3-0 ATS
this season when available with at least a seven point start. The ten points on
offer last week looked too good to be true. Turns out it was.

A

fter what
amounted to quite an impressive road win (ATS, too) in Jacksonville two weeks
ago, the Bengals went bust at home to the Dolphins, despite holding Reggie Bush
to just 48 rushing yards. They led 6-0 at the end of the first quarter and were
covering the spread right there. I remembered afterwards that Cincinnati were
too unreliable to bet on last year so I’m wary for the rest of the season
unless I see a ridiculous chink in the Vegas armour.

Houston’s
never just six points the better team over the Jets, even on the road, but
that’s what happened last week and with Arian Foster rushing for 152 yards, no
less. The Texans were never going to lose that game and I thought the line of
-7.5 was amazing value; it crept up to ten towards kickoff. In hindsight, I
failed to look ahead to their Week 6 matchup...the Packers at home on primetime
on Sunday night, a possible Super Bowl preview. I should’ve known better.

One crumb is
that Week 6 can’t go as bad as last week. Let’s take a look. (The acronym BAL
below each team denotes Best Available Line, for those new to this).

Before we do,
however, for those that care for these posts (and I thank you both), this week
will be a little different as I’ll just be commenting on the games I see ripe
for betting on. My apologies for the truncated post.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at ATLANTA FALCONS

BAL Raiders +9.5...BAL
Falcons -9

Atlanta will
remain unbeaten after this one, at 6-0. Will they be 5-1 ATS? It should happen.
Oakland’s given up 103 points over its past three games and they face a Falcons
team averaging 29.6 points per game. In addition, as mentioned above with
regards looking ahead at a team’s schedule, if we do that with Atlanta, they
enter their bye week after this one so no problematic road test coming up. Not,
that is, until they travel to Philly in two weeks time.

I look at this
matchup with the Raiders possibly being afforded a 12 point start. In fact, I
may even be happy laying 14. They’re coming off a 37-6 hammering from the
Broncos and yes, they had their bye last week, which obviously gives a team
time to pore over every mistake (where do you begin in Oakland?), but there’s
other factors at play.

The bye week
can have a positive effect, from regrouping to re-organising to giving players
extra time to recover from injury, but it can also disrupt rhythm and this is
something the Raiders didn’t have in Denver. On the road in Atlanta against a
home team with enough rhythm to make even Victor Cruz envious makes this a
nightmare matchup for Oakland.

The Raiders
are truly horrible away from the Coliseum this season, losing 35-13 in Miami
before the aforementioned debacle in Denver two weeks ago. In addition, this
game takes place at 10 a.m. PT for the Silver and Black. Basically, I’m
struggling to find any reason why this game shouldn’t be a blowout.

Oakland rank 12th
overall defensively so that’s a positive, right? Wrong. It’s a misleading stat
due to them having played one game less than most of the teams in the league.
They’re giving up 411.5 yards per game and ‘boast’ a pass defense that ranks 27th
in the league and a run defense that ranks 24th. Oh my, this is
getting uglier.

It’s likely
that the Raiders will be playing catch up, which means it’s even more likely
that their 32nd ranked run offense (60.8 YPG...ouch) will remain in
that position once the game has finished. The Falcons don’t defend the run at
all well (28th), but Oakland will need to find yards through the air
to stay on pace, something that Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer can certainly
do.

Without being
prolific (5 TDs, 2 INTs), Palmer’s averaging 258 yards per game directing a
passing offense that ranks 12th in the NFL. However, Atlanta’s stout
against the pass, yielding 203 yards per game through the air. I have to think
that if the Falcons don’t cover a nine point spread here, then they never will.
Ever.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at NEW YORK JETS

BAL Colts +3.5...BAL
Jets -3

Indianapolis
loses SU and ATS at home to Jacksonville in Week 3, having led 14-3 at
halftime. After their bye week, they trail (the still mighty?) Green Bay
Packers 21-3 at half time, only to turn it around in the second half and win
both SU and ATS. Wow. Wow is great, but never trust this team with your hard
earned at the moment.

I wouldn’t be
one bit shocked if they lost by ten this week, as ridiculous as that sounds.
Much like the Seahawks were when travelling to St. Louis the week after the
‘Fail Mary’ against the Packers on MNF, the Colts are coming off one of the
most emotional victories in franchise history, if not the most emotional.

That makes
them extremely dangerous to bet on this week and I take the Jets to cover the
spread and then some. The oddity about two of the most talked about games this
season is that the Packers were the team on the receiving end both times.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

BAL Vikings
+3...BAL Redskins -3

This is an
interesting line when looking back at the Redskins’ form ATS this season.
They’ve been favoured by three points, as they are here, on two previous
occasions, against the Rams and Bengals, games they proceeded to lose, both SU
and ATS. If you fancy Washington to buck that trend here, caveat emptor.

Minnesota, on
the other hand, are a covering machine right now, winning games handsomely and
covering the spread with aplomb. They’re rightly the underdog this week, but to
think they’re able to lose a close one by a point or two and we’re still able
to collect represents tremendous value for a hot team. Before the season began,
I didn’t once envision labeling the Vikings a hot team through seventeen weeks,
but they are and we’d better get used to the idea before they travel to Seattle
on November 4.

Defensively,
Minnesota rank in the top 10 overall (9th) and 6th
against the run, the latter being a particularly salient statistic as they’re
up against a rampant Redskins rookie running game that has Alfred Morris and
Robert Griffin III averaging 4.9 and 5.7 yards per carry respectively. Speaking
of RG3, I do wonder whether he’ll have last week’s concussion in the back of
his mind. Ordinarily, he’s fearless, but the hit he took last Sunday looked
nasty and I’m intrigued as to how he plays when flushed out of the pocket this
week. His injury is playing a major part in me liking the Vikings even more
than I already did.

Christian
Ponder is getting it done at quarterback for Minnesota and his 69% completion
percentage is impressive. He’s fortunate to have the almost indomitable Percy
Harvin to throw the ball to, who ranks joint second in the league with 38
receptions. Washington’s pass defense is there to be picked on, giving up as it
does a whopping 328 yards per game and Harvin can be expected to be targeted
often. This particular facet of the matchup works ridiculously well in the
Vikings’ favour and I like the start they’re receiving the more I delve into
the figures.

The surprise
team in the NFC North (in the entire NFL?) this season will undoubtedly see a
couple of the wheels fall off before too long, but there are no warning signs
as yet and there certainly wasn’t over the past three weeks. Over confidence
may be their downfall, but nobody gave them a chance at the beginning of the
season so they’re entitled to feel a little good about themselves.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at HOUSTON TEXANS

BAL Packers +3.5...BAL
Texans -3

I do have to
mention here that, while I wouldn’t advocate betting on this one, doesn’t Green
Bay represent amazing value due to the simple fact that they can’t possibly
begin the season 2-4? Just a thought.