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7/18/15

The fact is that I'll never really understand what makes one post more popular than any other. The post on MUX was little more than a headsup to subscribers of the Weekly to say that considering its news this week and the new low price, we're going to take a second and necessary look at the stock this weekend. There wasn't much in there, but for some reason or other it took off hits-wise and beat out the Chapo Guzman post(2nd place on the week) and the Lobito post (3rd).

7/17/15

I've never heard anything quite like Jon Hopkins's music since stumbling on it a couple of weeks ago. This one gets chosen (just, over Collider) as a Friday OT because of the way it finishes. It comes with an okay video, but it's the sound here, the layers and the ensemble. Sensational music. Amazing.

I know many of you are not into electronic-type music but trust me on one and give this one a go, start at the beginning and listen to the whole piece. You may find you like something you never thought you'd ever like. Then when you're done check out the whole albumas Hopkins is way way better than just one track. It's what Stravinsky would be doing today, or Mahler.

PS: I inadventently got the name of the track wrong to begin with, calling it "third eye signal". There might be a reason for that mistake...

I stopped reading Gwen "Resource Maven" Preston and unsubbed from her (at that point free, dunno these days) letter not long after her article in November 2014 in which she wrote that the bottom was definitely, certainly, absolutely in for gold and gold equities. I did so not because the forecast would eventually turn out to be true or false (today's U$1,129/oz gold proves it was a bad call) but because of its absolute assertion. It's the stuff that fools are made of and there are better things to read than this type of guff and nonsense. I moved on.

So as I looked back today to find the quote, instead I stumbled upon this February 2015 article in The Gold Report, a Q&A with Ms. Preston. It had the keyword quote (which is why the googlymachine took me there) but it also had a whole bunch of her stock picks, too. IAMGOLD (IAG) (IMG.to), the Ross Beaty plays KAM.v and DNA.to (with of course the "broken slot machine" phrase thrown in there, newsletter de rigueur), the Mark O'Dea vehicles Pilot Gold (PLG.to) because of its tight share structure (oh dear) plus True Gold (TGM.v), Pure Gold (PGM.v), then whole bunch of other junior picks. Now I don't know whether she's called sell on any of those in the meantime, you'd have to ask her, but a more obvious example of cookie-cutter mining picks and coat-tailing on others is difficult to find. And if you want to see how those names have got on in the meantime go check their charts, I'm not going to embarrass with visuals.

But that's not why this post exists, this got written today in the anticipation that Gwen Resource Maven Preston publishes how she was definitely, certainly, absolutely wrong about her forecast that the bottom was definitely, certainly, absolutely in for gold and gold equities. And that maybe, next time, she might not be as strident about her language because the markets have a tendency of making fools of us all, not just the neophytes.

...only for things to become...errr...slightly less optimistic as later results from the property came in (geologists call it "learning more about the controls" because they're so cute). Read about that hereor get the latest "interpretation" from the company right here. What's also interesting is how AVU that day managed to sucker in a lot of big sector names into either reco'ing the stock to their flocks or buying chunks of stock themselves. Or both. I won't embarrass by naming names here, because I quite like a few of the people who were hoodwinked by their BS pump (and I'm biased, but I definitely wasn't one of them). However, to cut a long story short we can get a really good handle on how that event played out just by looking at the 12 month price chart that shows the pump period and then what happened once cruel reality reared its ugly head:

The Long Dark Teatime of the Soul, writ large.

That was then and this is now and the big question is what to do, if you're AVU.v and want to keep paying yourself salary cheques and running your interpretive exploration campaign? The answer is to sell out to the bullshit pumpers and get them all on your side, which means Palisade Capital (those guys in Belize who run the mining pump radio show), Dig Media (purveyors of pump for years) and Bob Moriarty of 321Gold are all on board with the latest round of the placement, stocking up on the 10c shares with their full warrant kicker at 15c. But alongside those public purveyors of bovine excrement we now also see AVU playing with such backroom guys as Concept Capital Management and Golden Capital Consulting Ltd (both domiciled in The Marshall Islands...which is perfectly legit, innit guv) who make their living by "formulating capital markets strategic plans in Europe". Yes, before you ask, that's bizcode for "pump jobs on the Frankfurt exchange". By the way Concept Capital Mgmt is a particularly nefarious house of financial nastiness, the real classic sell-your-grandmother types.

And AVU, a company that runs pump jobs on its drill results, has just willingly got in bed with all those guys via this latest placement and of course the new holders all paid full cash for those shares....none given away for free in return for services, of course of course of course how cynical of you to think otherwise. Because as those guys have proven, time after time, there's no need to have a decent deposit to be able to get a stock to move up. All you need are a layer of suckers waiting to hear the right message at the right time and then react in correct Pavlovian style.

An early morning mail arrives from reader FE in Europe, asking for any developments in the Argentina presidential election race. Well, apart from Scioli's big 10,000 peso-a-plate fundraiser last night that pulled in 35 million Pesos (you can argue the exchange rate on that with somebody else, but if we assume the official 9.13 pesos to the dollar it's U$3.8m and not bad for one evening) and a few minor skirmishes of dirty politics from either side it's really moving forward fairly calmly so far, which is largely due to the fact that Daniel Scioli is out in front and unlikely to be caught by his only serious rival, Mauricio Macri. There's the Buenos Aires city mayor run-off this weekend which will be won by Macri's man Larreta (owner of the scariest smile in politics, like one of those psychotic horror movie clowns just without the greasepaint) but that's always been a given and won't affect the national gig at all. So there's about three months left and the real campaign trail stuff is about to start. Expect "incidents" because there always are, but CFK will get her continuation as well.

Last weekend we updated on the state of play in the Argentina presidential election campaign. Here's how that piece ended, because it sums things up well this weekend too (and copying my own work allows me to avoid thinking, which is good).

The last couple of weeks have seen
a rise in the number of serious and level-headed commentary people in Argentina
who either predict a Scioli win in round one or if not, that he's getting close
to that level. I don't think Scioli will quite have enough and again, a lot
will depend on how the deserters from the Sergio Massa campaign decide to cast
for Scioli or Macri. But his grasp on the top job is looking firmer by the week
and few in Argentina
or looking on the campaigns doubt that Scioli is now red hot favourite.

7/16/15

What with the recent heavy price action in McEwen Mining (MUX) and the recent newsflow from the stock, incuding two material NRs this week (and one of those tonight), we'll be running an update analysis on this stock on Sunday in IKN233.

And yes, I own some of this one. Cost average U$1.09, so I'm that much underwater. But that won't stop a sidebet if there's something to be had. Hasta Domingo.

It's been a while since I looked at The Economist's (in)famous Big Mac Index, which has been a proxy for the US Dollar PPP over the world economy for nearly 30 years and while imperfect (and adjusted along the way) is useful enough to have stood the test of that time.

But today it got one of its regular updates so I went for a look. Here's the screenshot of the main graphic:

I don't think I've ever seen the USD look that strong in BigMac terms. And with the talk in financial circles the way it is, the USD is starting to look like the epitome of the crowded trade.

According to Global Mining Observer today, Roosen wants to buy AuRico, newly embiggened after its merger with Alamos. Read about it here.UPDATE: One mail received on subject so to nip it in the bud no, I don't own any shares in either stock. Boring farts, you got nothing else to do?

Want more evidence that Goldcorp is about to buy Lake Shore Gold? Today's newsgives you just that:

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Jul 16, 2015) - Lake Shore Gold Corp. (LSG)(NYSE MKT:LSG) ("Lake Shore Gold" or the "Company") today announced that it has submitted a binding proposal to Temex Resources Corp. ("Temex") for the acquisition of all of the common shares of Temex. Under the terms of the proposal, Temex shareholders would receive, for each Temex share, 0.105 of a Lake Shore Gold share, having a value of $0.13 based on the closing price of Lake Shore Gold's shares on the TSX on July 15, 2015.

Temex holds a 60% interest in a joint venture (for which Temex is the operator) with Goldcorp Canada Ltd. on the Whitney Property ("Whitney), immediately adjacent to Lake Shore Gold's Bell Creek Mine and Mill. (continues)

I think we can safely say that Palisade Radio, one of those dedicated channels to junior mining puffing and promoting that the sheep like listening to, is about to pump Montan Mining (MNY.v) and its toll milling start-up thingy in Peru like there's no tomorrow.

We're down to such fripperies now that when a junior puts in an order for a 300tpd ball mill, it manages to squeeze a full news release and 316 words dedicated to the...errr....event?

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Jul 16, 2015) - Silver Bear Resources Inc. ("Silver Bear" or the "Company") (SBR.TO) is pleased to announce that an order has been placed with CITIC Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. for a 500 kW (ø3.0 x 3.7 m EGL) ball mill for the Mangazeisky Silver Project. This is the first of the long lead process equipment items bought by Silver Bear's Russian subsidiary, ZAO Prognoz, and represents an important step toward silver production in 2016.The mill has a nominal capacity of 110 kt/a, with spare capacity to increase throughput by 30% without loss in grind quality. The spare mill capacity mitigates the risk of a restricted production rate during periods in which particularly hard run of mine ore is processed. In line with Silver Bear's development strategy, the selected mill offers the opportunity to expand the process plant to accept additional ore feed from satellite deposits.The mill will be designed in Australia, manufactured in CITIC's Chinese works in Luoyang and imported via Vladivostok in time to be shipped to site on the 2015/16 winter road.Silver Bear has embarked on an aggressive project implementation program this summer and has already erected an 80 man dormitory, workshop and warehouse in the camp area on site. Preparation for the process plant foundation construction is underway and it is expected that the building footings and mill foundation will be complete before the end of the 2015 construction season.Silver Bear's CEO, Graham Hill commented: "We are excited to be moving the Mangazeisky Silver Project forward and ordering the ball mill, a key long-lead item, is a significant milestone in the projects development. At this time the accelerated construction and mine plan for the Vertikalny deposit is progressing well and we are confident that the Company is in the position to meet its target of commissioning silver production by the second half of 2016."continues here

Here's the NR, here are a couple of charts. This one shows the amount of gold produced. This doesn't include the silver credit production because 1) it's very minor and 2) AR insists on using a very silly 55/1 ratio gold to silver for its AuEq. so if they're going to be dumbos about their silver, we'll just ignore it.

This one shows that the amount of dirt moved by AR was similar to Q1.

That should give you a clue about costs. We'll do a bit more on this one over the weekend in IKN323, subbers. But there's no rush for the info and it can wait for the weekend, which is a message all by itself.

7/15/15

The latest iteration of the Louis Lobito Little Wolf James of Casey Research "Ten Bagger" list, the stocks he says can give you a tenfold win, came out in February 2014 (amazingly, so so many names were dropped and new ones provided, wonder why?) and then just last July our happy Lobito decided to run an update on the stocks (cos they'd popped a bit in the Feb-July 2014 period, dontchaknow) in the July edition of his International Speculator thingy. So here's how they were framed one calendar year ago by Lobito, cut straight from the letter (though I'll save you the drudgery of reading his inane comments on each one, you get the headers only).

IKN, of course, fills you in on how they've got on since then. Because science.

Today ATC.v is trading at C$0.42, which is a drop of 65.3% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche.

Today ATY.v is trading at C$0.52, which is a drop of 34.2% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche.

Today BAR.to is trading at C$0.69, which is a drop of 57.9% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche (or take profits).By the way, that shows you how another one of the Casey Research BS scams work. They'll pick a point in time to say "buy" if you're not in and "sell" if you are, then in the future one of those calls is neatly forgotten, thereby leaving you with an apparently winning trade call.

Today CTG.v is trading at C$0.395, which is a drop of 16.8% since Lobito told us to hold or put in a "stink bid", bless his heart for the use of that special Casey scamtalk. Anyway, not a big loss on this trade (yet), so let's congratulate Lobito for not wasting any of his subscribers' cash on this trade. They just waste it on his subscription fee instead.

Today DNA.to is trading at C$0.90, which is a drop of 10.9% since Lobito told us to buy a first tranche under $1 (not much difference to the 1.01 there).

Today KAM.v is trading at C$0.73, which is a drop of 14.1% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. I suppose we should be thankful that Lobito only lost us 14.1% on this deal, unlike others such as the next one...

Today PLG.to is trading at C$0.51, which is a drop of 65.1% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. Hey Lobito, why didn't you say "stink bid" on this one? You could have claimed a win that way...

Today REN.to is trading at C$0.20, which is a drop of 55.6% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche.

Today TGM.v is trading at C$0.225 which is a drop of 49.4% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. Hey do you see a pattern emerging too?

Today AAU is trading at U$0.77, which is a drop of 45.0% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche.

Today CNL.to is trading at C$3.07, which is a drop of 12.3% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche.

Today KOR.to is trading at C$0.72, which is a drop of 48.9% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. And seriously, if there's ever a stock that is made for suckers it's this one. I challenge you to find one geologist without the last name of Pontius who has a positive view towards this Bullfrog thing. Sadly Lobito isn't a geologist, he just pretends to be one by "kicking rocks".

Today DNG.to is trading at C$1.81, which is a drop of 3.7% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. Damn, almost a winner there Lobito...good try.

Today GQC.v is trading at C$0.12, which is a drop of 62.5% since Lobito told us to hold it in your portfolio. This is of course the same GQC.v that Louis James reco'd at its very peak of $2 way back when anyone else with smarts was selling.

Today PG.to is trading at C$2.17 which is a drop of 26.4% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche under $2.50. so let's be fair and assume you didn't buy at $2.95, rather $2.50. Therefore you only lost 13.2%...which is basically a win, right? Right?

Today PVG is trading at U$5.31, which is a drop of 35.4% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. He will of course claim that this is a winning trade for his flock, just like all the others.

Today RMC.v is trading at C$4.45, which is a drop of 26.9% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche.

Today RBY is trading at U$0.97, which is a drop of 34.0% since Lobito told us to buy first tranche. This is also the one Lobito used to pump people into the services of his new partner in scammery, Porter Stansberry. Birds of a feather.

And that rounds it off, all the "Ten Bagger" trades reco'd by Louis Lobito Little Wolf James that are all designed to give you a tenfold return on your original investment. Methinks a little adjustment might be in order.

Back on Bastille Day 2014, Kaminak Gold (KAM.v) whacked a big move when Ross Beaty and Lukas Lundin decided to take their big chunk of the stock at 80c. By way of reminder...

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Jul 14, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- Kaminak Gold Corporation (KAM) (the "Company") announces that it has entered into a subscription agreement (the "Subscription Agreements") with each of Ross Beaty and Zebra Holdings and Investments S.a.r.l., Luxembourg (a company owned by a Trust whose settlor was the late Adolf H. Lundin) (the "Purchasers") pursuant to which each of the Purchasers has agreed to make an investment of C$6,760,000, collectively C$13,520,000, into the Company by way of a non-brokered private placement (the "Private Placement"). Upon closing of the Private Placement, each of the Purchasers will own 9.98% of Kaminak's outstanding shares on a partially diluted basis assuming the exercise of Warrants (as defined below) acquired by such Purchaser. The Company's cash position will be approximately C$26.5 million following completion of the Private Placement (continues here)

...so, here we are a year on and let's check on things, because Beaty and Lundin always win and never fail.

Though to be fair, that jolly shining legend about their collective prowess is only what you dumbasses in marketworld say, all that "broken slot machine" stupidity. Ask Beaty and Lundin and they'll both quickly point out their failed trades to you. And that's why they're good at what they do. And you're not.

I hope that all these years of running Ottotrans at you have managed to train your eye a little to the real content of today's NR from the Marin Katusa/Casey Research/Assorted Hangers-On pump job Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), because when they say that permitting "advances" and then state...

"The Mine Permit, Aquifer Exemption and Radioactive Material License applications are in advanced stages of technical review and will be followed by the first Production Area Authorization application at Burke Hollow."

...what it really means is that they don't have the permits to operate. It's that simple.

With its worst silver production numbers since early 2010, Caylloma is now a base metals mine with a silver kicker. San José papers over the cracks, production-wise. We await to see whether it will be able to do the same financials-wise. NR here.

7/14/15

Which either means they don't care about inept management teams at mining companies or they knew just how bad Primero was to begin with. Whores the lot of 'em.

UPDATE post-open: Amazingly, incredibly, shockingly, it would seem that the wider market tends to disagree with the Canaccord whoremongers professional analysts who are of course totally unbiased and not at all in the pocket of mining companies:

IKN's occasional series that tries to translate the gobbledegook emitted into the virtual world of information by junior mining companies into something more palatable cannot possibly ignore the wonderful, but wonderful news release out of Joey Freeze's Candente Gold (CDG.to) this morning. It's entitled "Candente Gold Reports on Testwork Program for Processing of Mexico Mine Tailings", it's full of most marvellous prose and worderation but IKN GETS ITS TRANSLATION DOWN TO JUST THREE WORDS.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Jul 14, 2015) - Candente Gold Corp. (CDG.TO) ("Candente Gold" or the "Company") provides the following progress update on cyanide leach extraction testwork at McClelland Laboratories, Inc. in Sparks, Nevada for Candente Gold's Mexico Mine Tailings Recovery Operation ("MMTRO") located in El Oro, Mexico.The initial testwork program focused on utilizing industry standard cyanide leach technology to assess the potential for extraction of gold and silver from representative samples collected from the Mexico Mine Tailings during the 2014 Auger Sampling program. A key aspect of the leach testwork program was to subject the tailings samples to additional grinding prior to leaching. Testwork completed by previous owners in the late 1980's suggested that additional grinding of the tailings had the potential to significantly improve precious metal recoveries. The cyanide leach extraction testwork program did not replicate satisfactory leach extraction figures from the late 1980's and therefore this aspect of the testwork has been discontinued.The testwork program also included metallurgical and mineralogical characterization of the tailings, which has provided some insight as to the characterization of the gold and silver in the tailings. As a result additional testwork is planned to assess the potential of producing a gold-silver concentrate for toll treatment at an offsite processing facility.Importantly, analysis has shown the Mexico Mine Tailings have a silica content of greater than 80%. The combination of high precious metals content and high silica content offers potential for the tailings to be sold to smelters for use as a smelter flux. Expressions of interest have been received and are being pursued. Smelting is a pyrometallurgical process that is utilized to recover metals from concentrates, and in addition it typically recovers a significant portion of the precious metals from the flux.Evaluation work has also commenced on three additional Tailings deposits within the El Oro area, which Candente Gold has rights to under the same agreement as the Mexico Mines Tailings.The Company continues to explore Expressions of Interest from groups to finance and/or enter into a joint venture for the MMRTO. The Company is pursuing these interests simultaneously with the leach testwork program.

And this is what it means:

It won't leach.

PS: Or as a friend of your author's* commented this morning on seeing this pearl of a NR, "I've always been wary of metallurgists and tailings projects. But turning a gold-silver resource into a source of silica is alchemy of the highest order."

Note that this is in Canadian dollars, not the U$ used (to make things look smaller) by Makuch&Co in the NR today. We use the same conversion rate as the company. And by the way, we're sticking to Loonies to report LSG numbers because that's what they do; they work in Canada, costs are Canadian, they report their quarters in Canadian Dollars...therefore so should we.

Bottom line: A little more expensive, but still more than reasonable and when you compare that latest column against the CAD$1,470/oz it received for each ounce produced, it's in good corporate shape. So, now just waiting for Chuck Jeannes to get on and do the obvious.

7/13/15

Otto's First Law of Mining News Releases: Considering that anything contained in a mining news release is presented in the best possible way for the company in question, any piece of information contained in a NR that comes across in any way negative means the real news and/or events behind it must be very, very bad indeed.

The NR on this link came from Primero Mining(PPP) (P.to) an hour or so ago and I've finally stopped laughing enough to be able to type. And among the things we now know about P's ops in Mexico, by far the most interesting is this:

"PEM's import and export licences were suspended in May 2015 by the Mexican customs authorities..."

Aaaaand, STOP RIGHT THERE! No need for the company's spin or reasoning as to why their impex licence was revoked, we'll stick with the plain facts thanks very much Mister Conway. As noted in another place when the news hit, it's a case of, "Yeah...well....we did lose our licences in May....but we weren't gonna bother you about it....detail y'see...but what with the delays to shipments....and 2q15 and that...y'know...here we are, tellin' ya now guv....innit". Ah, it's at times like this that I regret giving up the use of strong swear words on this blog, some really choice epithets for the "management" at P come to mind right now.

And thusly, one of those rare occasions when the can't-organize-piss-up-in-brewery mining companies are forced to show the world how they screw up. Such a pleasant day when Joseph Conway (aka Hubris Defined) is made to look stupid. Thanks man!

On hearing the news this weekend that Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán had escaped from Mexico's high security El Altiplano prison via a 1.5km tunnel and after the laughing stopped, I decided to wait patiently for The Mexfiles to run on the story rather than post a trite word or three here. My decision to wait was justified a few minutes ago, here's how RG's pearl of a post begins:

The story being given out — that somehow someone managed to dig a 1.5 Km tunnel (just under a mile) from outside Altaplano Prison into Chapo’s shower… UNDETECTED — is shall we say, an unprecedented opportunity for Mexicans to indulge in mordant humor?

Even His Excellency, Bishop Raúl Vera, has turned stand-up comic, suggesting the country build a monument to Chapo… who by his escape has shown the world how very corrupt both the penitentiary system and the “high echelons of power” are in this country.

It’s hard to believe, and it appears almost none of those who make their living following the narco-biz, do believe the official story. Under the jokes there is the sense that the “great escape” is the final straw in any belief that the present administration is competent to deal with national issues.

Once again, on reading thequarterly production numbers out of Richmont Mines(RIC.to) I wonder what all the fuss is about. I mean I get all the Renaud Adams and Island Mine transformation opportunity and that, but it also has more than a little of that classic Canadian BS-brokerage pumpo look and feel about it, emperors and clothes and jam tomorrow.

So, 26,314 oz gold produced this quarter and 27,566 oz sold, but these aren't cheap ounces either folks, this is your actual breakeven/near-breakeven mine at current gold prices. Why do I get the feeling that the whole thing was a 2014 PR operation designed to get the February 2015 equity placement done?

We repeat: The whole Greece thing is a political crisis, it's not a financial crisis (unless you're one of the 11 million people living in Greece, of course). It won't be one until the Eurozone unravels, which has been delayed a little by last night's eurofudge and German browbeating (nice to see they haven't lost that particular cultural trait). But back to the almighty dollar, which cares far more about a 1% move on the Shanghai exchange than it does about the locks on the doors of the banks in Athens. A half-penny move on the news that Greeks will get a few more days to empty their bank accounts of cash? Yup, sounds about right, a minor event.

To wrap up, Alex Tsipras is a coward. Both he and his milquetoast "agreement" should be thrown out by the Greek parliament. Pathetic, spineless politicos aren't confined to The Americas.

"...it’s striking that the conventional wisdom here completely misreads the closest parallel, Argentina 2002. The usual narrative is completely wrong: de-dollarization did *not* cause economic collapse, but rather followed it, and recovery began quite soon."

...is absolutely, totally, 100% correct. I'm sick to death listening to people tell me about what I went through in Argentina and getting it wrong. He's far from my favourite, especially on politics, but on this Krugman's right.

To the mix, IKN adds its own humble piece of advice for Greece's PM.

Walk. Greece will survive. But besides that, you were not elected to agree to these terms. The whole point of Greece electing you was to oppose such draconian measures. It's time to spit them back in their faces and walk out of their room. Just walk.

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