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More reasons to be prepared

Published: Friday, August 10, 2012 at 1:00 a.m.

Last Modified: Thursday, August 9, 2012 at 8:53 p.m.

Hurricane-season forecasts, it seems, change with the weather in Florida -- comforting one day, foreboding the next.

For example, the forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May called for average to below-average storm activity. But, as Kate Spinner of the Herald-Tribune reported, NOAA on Thursday issued a revised forecast citing the potential for more storms than predicted.

"Before the hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, the Atlantic is likely to churn up an additional six to 11 tropical storms," Spinner pointed out, "Some five to eight of those storms are expected to grow into hurricanes and two to three could reach major hurricane status, with winds exceeding 110 mph."

These changing forecasts can be difficult for the average Floridian to follow. But, despite their variability, there is one constant: The potential for hurricanes and tropical storms to develop is a season-long threat that typically intensifies this month. Eighty percent of all tropical storms and hurricanes form after Aug. 1.

In June, Tropical Storm Debby showed how a relatively weak system can impact a region and state with rain. Precipitation can still be a factor in mid-to-late season storms, but high winds and storm surge are more likely to result from intense hurricanes.

So, as storms churn in the Atlantic basin and the possibility of more systems grows, this is a good time to remember that -- while there are no pat, foolproof strategies for surviving a storm -- having a plan is better than not having one. Here are questions each family should strive to answer during peak season:

• Is your home safe for "sheltering in place," the plan advised for most Floridians? If not, have you identified an alternative?

• Have you rounded up important documents or stored them somewhere accessible out of the storm zone?

• Are you ready for the aftermath of a hurricane, when so many casualties occur? Do you know how to operate a generator safely, avoid downed electric lines and falling trees, get up-to-date information when power is out, and steer clear of flood hazards on the roads?

• Have you set up a family and neighbor communication network, to check on each other's safety?

With luck, you won't need these things. With good fortune, the next six months of hurricane season will pass you by with nothing more serious than the usual dose of heat and humidity. We hope that the Gulf remains gentle and doesn't transform into a killer storm surge, and that hurricane supplies once again pile up in the pantry, destined for a midwinter food drive.

But you never know. And that's why it's always better to be prepared than to be complacent.

<p>Hurricane-season forecasts, it seems, change with the weather in Florida -- comforting one day, foreboding the next.</p><p>For example, the forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May called for average to below-average storm activity. But, as Kate Spinner of the Herald-Tribune reported, NOAA on Thursday issued a revised forecast citing the potential for more storms than predicted.</p><p>"Before the hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, the Atlantic is likely to churn up an additional six to 11 tropical storms," Spinner pointed out, "Some five to eight of those storms are expected to grow into hurricanes and two to three could reach major hurricane status, with winds exceeding 110 mph."</p><p>These changing forecasts can be difficult for the average Floridian to follow. But, despite their variability, there is one constant: The potential for hurricanes and tropical storms to develop is a season-long threat that typically intensifies this month. Eighty percent of all tropical storms and hurricanes form after Aug. 1.</p><p>In June, Tropical Storm Debby showed how a relatively weak system can impact a region and state with rain. Precipitation can still be a factor in mid-to-late season storms, but high winds and storm surge are more likely to result from intense hurricanes.</p><p>So, as storms churn in the Atlantic basin and the possibility of more systems grows, this is a good time to remember that -- while there are no pat, foolproof strategies for surviving a storm -- having a plan is better than not having one. Here are questions each family should strive to answer during peak season:</p><p>• Is your home safe for "sheltering in place," the plan advised for most Floridians? If not, have you identified an alternative?</p><p>• Have you rounded up important documents or stored them somewhere accessible out of the storm zone?</p><p>• Are you ready for the aftermath of a hurricane, when so many casualties occur? Do you know how to operate a generator safely, avoid downed electric lines and falling trees, get up-to-date information when power is out, and steer clear of flood hazards on the roads?</p><p>• Have you set up a family and neighbor communication network, to check on each other's safety?</p><p>With luck, you won't need these things. With good fortune, the next six months of hurricane season will pass you by with nothing more serious than the usual dose of heat and humidity. We hope that the Gulf remains gentle and doesn't transform into a killer storm surge, and that hurricane supplies once again pile up in the pantry, destined for a midwinter food drive.</p><p>But you never know. And that's why it's always better to be prepared than to be complacent.</p>