Although this week, the US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter declared the complete defeat of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in its Libyan stronghold (Sirte) and the end of the bombing ofthat city[1], the situation is much more complex than to leave it in a determinant victory. The Hijrah of the terrorist group fighters to the east is wreaking havoc on the Libyan National Army (LNA), as it has had several violent encounters in areas adjoining the city (in Amera), where one of the leaders of Daesh was been slaughtered (Qaqah al Dernawi)[2]. The cleansing of worshipers to Daesh in Sirte is not over. The battle for the full control of the city has resulted in some 3250 wounded and 751 dead, according to the spokesman for the Central Hospital of Misrat[3]. In addition, more than 100 fighters fled before the capture of the city, who will undoubtedly seek to join forces again in other areas where they have a military presence (in the south of the country, near the border with Algeria) or they will try to cross borders and meet with other units (in Egypt, Sudan or Morocco, for example, or in Europe).

Daesh did not only rely on the political-military unity of its capitals in Libya, Syria and Iraq, but has worked to form cells and alliances with other groups in the rest of the territory that will guarantee them a more prolonged (and threatening) presence in the country and in neighboring areas. Libya’s political-social rupture (divided into various tribal loyalties, towards a government supported by the international community -Tripoli-based-, but with low local support and composed by multiple and disorderly militias, and a rebel government, heir to the forces of Gaddafi based in Tobruk and receiving military aid from Egypt, Russia and Jordan) will help the terrorist group to go unnoticed in the territory (if it wishes) to reestablish its influences (currently with other jihadist cells on the border with Libya or between the multiple jihadist militias that make up the country). Jonathan Winer, of the Obama administration in Libya, also considers the possibility of this future: “We believe that they are waiting for opportunities to redirect more attacks on Libya or its neighbors, and if possible to re-establish itself geographically”[5].

However, although they remain in resistance in the city of Sirte and scattered in the south of the country near the border with Algeria, the scenario has fallen into the hands of the struggles for power and control of the oil production centers, specially led by Tripoli militias and forces loyal to the Tobruk government. At the moment, the confrontation will be caused by the Libyan government’s future between these groups (and Daesh will pass into the background), with the drive of the Libyan National Army, backed by a Russia with an interest in regaining influence in the region (after Gaddafi’s fall) and, on the other hand, the supported government by the international community that seeks to agglomerate all those who oppose the old regime, which advocates a political transition of the country in the hands of other militants not linked to the past but opting for a change of chairs in power.

The territorial defeats of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in North Africa, Syria or Iraq are forcing the group to reformulate its identity and re-adopt a new structure and strategy for survival; For the moment, they have shown a broad adaptability, despite the numerous enemies that face them and the fronts they have open in combat, but it must be borne in mind that the physical fall of the Caliphate had long been in their minds It is only necessary to see how they have reinforced the city of Mosul to maintain a combat that benefits them and assures them a second opportunity in the region. They will cede a state presence (ruling cities with a complex bureaucratic apparatus) in key centers (such as Mosul, Raqqa or Sirte), but they will absorb the many strengths that secure them the vulnerable borders and unbalanced and bankrupt situations in Africa and the opportunities of those territories , Increasingly Islamic and radical (Southeast Asia) or wounded by sectarianism (Europe and the Middle East).