If we believe a report by research & brokerage firm Motilal Oswal, then Reliance Jio may be in deep trouble right now. Demonetization move by PM Modi has wreaked havoc in Jio’s expansion plan as they growth rate has plunged by 50% as a result of currency ban.

The report clearly states that there is no way that Jio can convince 100 million users to use their services by December 31, 2016; which means that a major promise and assurance from Mukesh Ambani would be broken. And this also means that stock-investors may ditch Reliance’s shares in coming days.

Disappointing Growth Of Jio Due To Currency Ban?

As per the researchers, there has been a sharp fall in number of footfalls in Reliance outlets, due to demonetization move. Right now, subscriber run rate (the growth of new users) has dropped by 50%, compared to pre-8/11 period, due to which, there is are 35-40 million users of Jio right now.

The report said, “Channel checks suggest Jio outlets have started receiving complaints that data speeds are down by 70-80% over three months”

As per the findings of the report, Jio’s subscriber base can reduce further after December 31, when the Welcome Offer cease to exist.

However, the report also predicts that in case Jio is not able to acquire 100 million customers by December 31, 2016, then the Welcome Offer can be extended for few more weeks/months.

But Morgan Stanley Is Optimistic On Jio

Another set of reports coming in from rival research firm Morgan Stanley is bullish on Jio’s performance. As per their own findings, 94% of incremental data volumes in September Quarter was triggered by Jio customers.

In fact, this report states that even if Welcome Offer is ended, the tariff plans from Jio would be 35% lower than their competitors, which means that more users would be added to their platform, despite a slight dip currently.

Interestingly, just like Motilal Oswal, Morgan Stanley too believes that Jio will extend their Welcome Offer beyond December 31, 2016. Besides, there is another prediction which both the brokerage houses have speculated: Reliance Jio may introduce new price plans in the range of Rs 200-300 for targeting mass-market reach.

In addition to this, Reliance Jio has also started Home Delivery of SIMs, which should definitely help them increase the acquisition rate. It is also said that Jio may even extend their Free Welcome Offer till March 2017, so as to garner as many subscribers as possible!

We will keep you updated as we receive more updates from Reliance Jio.

Mohul keenly observes the nuances of Indian startup world; and tries to demystify the secrets behind Technology, Marketing, Mobile and Internet. He is a Writer by passion, Marketer by choice and Entrepreneur by compulsion. Follow him on Twitter here: @_mohul