Is Gun Control Dead?

Is gun control dead after the Senate failed to pass so much as an expansion of background checks?

The White House thinks it’s not — that there will be another chance to have this fight in the future.

Gabrielle Giffords’ group, Americans for Responsible Solutions, is already airing radio ads in Kentucky against Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, and in New Hampshire against Senator Kelly Ayotte, saying they “ignored the will of the people.”

Meanwhile, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who co-sponsored the background checks amendment, is already moving on, maneuvering to expand the bill by including a prohibition on gun purchases by anyone on the terrorist watch list — on the theory that adding such a national security no-brainer would attract some Republican votes.
If it proves impossible to get gun legislation back on the Senate floor in the next year, there’s always the hope that, in the 2014 election, voters will favor candidates who support gun-control.

But how much do the voters really care?

In a new Fox News poll, 68 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote for a lawmaker who supported expanding background checks.

That’s of course good news for the supporters of gun regulations. But it’s not clear whether they can sustain the passion on this issue over the next 18 months.

Another poll, by Pew Research and the Washington Post, showed that 47 percent of Americans are either disappointed or angry that the latest gun bill failed, while 39 percent are very happy or relieved. That’s a fairly large margin, but if you break down the numbers, you will see that the portion who said they were “very happy” that the bill failed — 20 percent — is larger than the “angry” crowd — 15 percent.

If you figure it’s the “angry” and “very happy” types who will actually care about guns come 2014, you start to see why the Senate failed to pass background checks.

Then add to the mix that Americans are extremely confused about the status quo.

In a recent article for the Sunday Review, Joel Benenson, who is President Obama’s pollster, and Kate Connolly, who works for Mr. Benenson, explored why Americans say they want universal background checks and that they want to ban assault weapons, but also say they would prefer the government “enforce current gun laws more strictly” rather than pass new laws.

According to their polling, this contradiction arises from the fact that Americans don’t “know much about gun laws.” Amazingly, “about 6 out of 10 people who believe we just need to do a better job of enforcing existing laws don’t realize that those laws are far weaker than they think. And just under half of those who want better enforcement don’t know that military-style assaults weapons are, in fact, legal.”

It’s possible that the White House, Democrats in Congress who believe in gun regulation, and outside groups like Ms. Giffords’ can keep up the pressure on this issue until the 2014 elections, and better educate Americans on the state of play. But it is going to be a hard task for groups that in recent times have not shown the organization, drive or single-mindedness that exists on the right.