Thursday, March 29, 2012

Storm Prediction Center Outlines Long Range Severe Weather Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather for 4 days out in the Southern Plains. I say 4 days out, because 'Day 1' is today, 'Day 2' is tomorrow, etc.

The perpetrator for this severe weather will involve a dry line. This dry line will be stationed in central Texas. As the warm air is drawn north by the storm system located in Wisconsin, the dry line will quickly accumulate a dew point gradient. When the cold front out to the west intercepts this gradient, showers and thunderstorms should be quick to form in Arkansas, Louisiana, and probably some more discrete, severe storm cells out ahead of the system.
As the storm system moves east, wind shearing will increase to a good 60 knots, easily sustainable for tornadoes. This shearing will be accompanied by at least 1000 j/kg of instability. The combination will probably make for some discrete super cells in due time.
There does look to be a fairly weak cap over the area, about 100 -j/kg. This should be easily broken by the storm system.
As the system makes its way eastward, it will try to attain a negative tilt. However, based on the latest GFS, that is possible, not confident. The GFS has the storm take on a neutral/slight negative tilt when it is in the area being monitored for severe weather.

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