I was surprised when I found out that Avianca started operating to VLN about two months ago. I saw the Avianca counters at the Valencia airport last week and it is definitely awesome that we finally have an important international carrier serving VLN!

Does anybody know how the route is doing? I don't know what the VLN-BOG frequency is exactly, but I believe it's 3 or 4 times a week. Also, I wish they would advertise a little more...well, maybe the route is doing well so it's unnecessary.

Now if only we could fix up our airport so that we had a few jetways and a more than one baggage carrousel...

Quoting Poh2 (Thread starter): I don't know what the VLN-BOG frequency is exactly, but I believe it's 3 or 4 times a week

Hi there,

The route only started on the 18th July. At the moment it is twice weekly: Tuesdays and Fridays. From the 15th September 2 extra weekly frequencies will be added, on Wedbesdays and Thursdays with the same schedule.
AV116 BOG 0855 VLN 1150 F100
AV117 VLN 1235 BOG 1325 F100

The lack of weekend flights would indicate that this flight is aimed at the business traveller.

I hope that the route does well, and that it can be made into a daily flight.
Maracaibo might well follow.

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 6):
Is this because many Venezuelans are of Colombian descent and because business ties between both capitals are relatively strong regardless of the political situation?

Both. Colombia's is Venezuela's 2nd most important trade partner and viceversa. Also 10% of Venezuela's 25 million population are either Colombians or 1st generation Venezuelan-Colombians. Of my 20 closest friends, 3 are 1st Generation Venezuelan-Colombians, 4 are Venezuelan-Spanish, 3 Venezuelan-Italian, 3 Venezuelan-Portuguese, girlfriend is spanish-venezuelan and 2 are Venezuean-Americans and only the remaining 2 are 100% Venezuelan.

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 6):By the way, do you know how Avianca is performing to LAX? I think Avianca is now the best way to get from LAX to CCS these days.

You can also fly Copa, Taca SJO, Mexicana, Delta, American and Continental. Continental usually being the cheapest of all, plus you might get a widebody. AA also offers LAX from MIA, DFW and SJU. From MIA and SJU you can get a widebody, dunno about DFW.

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 6):Is this because many Venezuelans are of Colombian descent and because business ties between both capitals are relatively strong regardless of the political situation?

Following what Luis correctly said, there are indeed different types of traffic between both countries that warrant multiple daily flights. Not only VFR/ethnic travelers, but also business, leisure, connecting, and cargo traffic add up for the market's success.

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 6):By the way, do you know how Avianca is performing to LAX?

Results should be out in two weeks or so. Figures for June are not available since the route began rather late in that month.

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 6):I think Avianca is now the best way to get from LAX to CCS these days.

Avianca is convinient, but certainly not the best given that BOG-LAX is only 3x weekly, which pretty much limits your traveling needs.

I'm not completely positive, but a plus on Avianca's side would be that they are the option on which you'd arrive the earliest to Caracas from Los Angeles.

Quoting Luisde8cd (Reply 7):You can also fly Copa, Taca SJO, Mexicana, Delta, American and Continental. Continental usually being the cheapest of all, plus you might get a widebody. AA also offers LAX from MIA, DFW and SJU. From MIA and SJU you can get a widebody, dunno about DFW.

Luis, if you are considering widebody service as an advantage, then Avianca is also up there. Remember that BOG-LAX is 767-territory.

I believe that AA no longer flies widebody-equipment from LAX to SJU, but rather a 757.

Quoting SOUTHAMERICA (Reply 5):Avianca has reported on several occasions that Caracas is one of their best performing destinations on high-season. You can sure bet that Caracas is important for them!

Last night I had the chance to talk to someone on their financial dept, and among many things he said, its that they're pretty happy with all their short Intl destinations, such as PTY, VNL, CCS, LIM and UIO. BCN and LAX are doing better than expected, the later mainly because of cargo loads. One thing he really surprised me with, its that they're not that happy with MAD, basically because lf have to be over 85% to get a profit from the flight........why?? oil prices he said. And not surprisingly, EZE is doing as good as anyone can expect and the best one this last weeks, GRU.

They're betting hard on GRU, and want to explit O6 in GRU, turning it into a kind of a mini hub. He also confirmed O6 is getting a 757 and a 767 from a leasing company (maybe GECAS or ILFC??? no idea if ex-RG metal......).

On the new fleet, he confirmed they're still on negotiations, both A & B still on a hard discount fight to get the order, but it seems A is a little bit more agressive on prices than B. On a personal note, I would put my money on a B order, he said something about AV being "closer to Seattle than Tolouse" and they don't forget the A320 deal with VX, which he referred to as a "big mistake from VX".

Cheers,

JAAH
--------------------

Disclaimer:

I'm not trying to start a A & B war in this thread, I'm just tryin to share a conversation I had with someone that has pretty good financial info on AV. Many might be interested on this, some may try to flame me. If you try to flame me, remember, these are not my opinions, just a small extraction of a 2 plus hours of conversation.

Hey JAAH,
Thank you very much for this insight. Great that short haul is doing well, but worrying about MAD. The competition on that route is strong, and the 762, whereas technically is a good plane for the route, financially it is not. I understand that for 175 Pax it consumes the same fuel than NMs A332 with 300 pax. Did your informer not hint what an interim measure they might take till the new A350 or dreamliner arrives? No mention of 777s for instance?

Actually, he's on the financial dept, so not too many thingson this. Actually he sounded so dissapointed financially speaking on MAD, that we continued on chances for London or CDG, and actually doesn't know a thing. On a personal note, how easy is to find a 777 for lease nowdays, besides ex-RG metal, which AM I heard grabbed one or two. Of course, I wish they get one someday, it would be great.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 12):the 762, whereas technically is a good plane for the route, financially it is not

In fact, he said that lf's have to be so high, that most of the time, they just try to keep the route for the european presence and getting more yielding on the other southamerican routes. Amazingly, BCN is just working fine for them, so I might guess competition, as you said, is getting on AVs heels and pushing prices to the limit.

I'll see this guy next week, so i'll ask him about the possible 777s, and the new fleet, which he told me there's news everyday. Ill quote what he said about the last A offer: "It seems like they dropped down their pants.......". Lets wait for B now and Mr Ef capabilities to get better deals everyday.

Cheers,

JAAH

ps: Anyone knows how much would cost a monthly lease for a decent 777???

Quoting 777jaah (Reply 13):"It seems like they dropped down their pants.......".

Hey J,

I can only imagine that with all their blues on the A350, Airbus must be keen to get orders on their books!
If the price is right, then AV might be tempted. But delivery on the A350 would be later than the 787. Maybe they might include an interim lease of A330s for interamerican aoutes and maybe even A340s for european routes..

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 14):I can only imagine that with all their blues on the A350, Airbus must be keen to get orders on their books!

Couldn't agree more with you!!!!!!!! But what this guy told, besides prices, chances for a B order are 60-40, they don't forget the A320s VX had, and still consider that was a huge mistake made by the management, and it seems B wasn't very customer friendly with some problems they had (I don´t know which actually.......).

Quoting 777jaah (Reply 15):Couldn't agree more with you!!!!!!!! But what this guy told, besides prices, chances for a B order are 60-40

Well, they could be more now, if we are to believe Cambio magazine..

In a note in the "secrets" section, it says that Avianca's CEO, Fabio Villegas, was in Washington (estate?) last week, where he "advanced in negociations for the acquisition of 8 737-800s to replace the MD-83 fleet. He also intends to negociate 2 enormous 787 airplanes to replace the current 767s. The first aircraft would arrive in 2 years, and the remainder in 2010"

First of all, it does seem that Mr Villegas was in the US at the time of Eldorado's concession, so that adds to the circumnstancial evidence. But the numbers in the Cambio note make no sense! 8 738s are not enough for replacing the MD fleet, nor are 2 787s for replacing the 767s.

So either te numbers are wrong, or there will be an initial order that will support growth in the medium term, whilst a larger order would replace the current fleet. Could it be the 2 "enormous" 787s, are in fact 2 777s to fill the gap temporarily? We shall have to wait and see..

Not the first time the media has no idea of what they're writing about.

About the 777 as an interim response, something was mentioned in this forum about it, even Mr E said a few lines about it, he even said it would be used for Northamerican routes. We shall wait and see.........

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 16):First of all, it does seem that Mr Villegas was in the US at the time of Eldorado's concession, so that adds to the circumnstancial evidence

IMO, make sno difference for anyone for both events, just a simple coincidence. Anyone who manages BOG will have to sit down and have a few words with Mr E, he's just its biggest customer, and today's EL TIEMPO has an article where talks about conversations between them already.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 16):8 738s are not enough for replacing the MD fleet, nor are 2 787s for replacing the 767s.

Just a mere expansion of their fleet, but delivery dates might be well beyond of short term needs.......so agree 100%. If such an order comes, is just as a interim response before the 737NGs and the 787s.

Quoting 777jaah (Reply 11):I had the chance to talk to someone on their financial dept, and among many things he said, its that they're pretty happy with all their short Intl destinations, such as PTY, VNL, CCS, LIM and UIO. BCN and LAX are doing better than expected, the later mainly because of cargo loads. One thing he really surprised me with, its that they're not that happy with MAD

777jah, Did he give you any insight about MEX? I've done MEX-BOG-MEX twice in the last month, both on B762 and B752, and the flight has been at over 95%LF - I realize this is high season, but still... The AV station manager in MEX told me the company is very pleased with the LFs after the schedule switchover to a the mid-afternoon departure to BOG rather than the early morning one.

MEX seems to be a good performer for AV, as you said. One thing this guy mentioned, as for many intl routes, cargo has outperformed any forecast, and it seems the codeshare agreement with AM seems to be working pretty well for them so far too. Next time i'll ask specifically about this route anyway, just to let you know better details on this issue.