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Monday, April 14, 2014

And here is the original Tripartite Committee Report about #Ethiopian Dam

From a year ago if you remember the tripartite technical committee to study the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam "GERD" on Egypt , Sudan and Ethiopia issued an important report about it. The report made Ethiopia angry because it claimed that the upstream country did give the committee all the documents and blueprints they needed about the dam and its security measures.

There was one hell of circus in Cairo about it from exactly one year ago.

Did you remember this now !?

Well in case you do not know the dispute over the dam and Egypt’s share of the Nile’s water is still there. I am afraid the talks with Ethiopia are not doing well with the insistence of the Ethiopians to complete the constructing of the dam. Of course our government is trying to have talks with the Ethiopians from time to time despite they seem to fail every time.

What is interesting is not the statement of the Pro-Environmental US based NGO , what is interesting is that the International Rivers organization published online the complete report of the tripartite technical committee to study the impacts of the GERD on Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in Egypt.

Yup the NGO published the full report in English now. Of course they did not say how they did get it. You read it below after the break.

BY the way it seems that the Ethiopians took the threats of potential presidential candidate Mortada Mansour seriously. The infamous outspoken racist bigot Mansoura said that he would attack Ethiopia militarily if it did not stop building the GERD if he was elected as a president !! Oh yes he will shut down twitter and Facebook as well declare war on Ethiopia !!
Speaking about the Presidency and so on. I do not feel the same anger in the media towards our fiasco in the Ethiopian Dam’s crisis like the one we used to have during Morsi’s presidency from a year ago. It seems that the failure continues and yet no one is screaming and shouting in the media telling the people that we are doomed.
We are doomed either ways if we do not get down from our ivory tower and think outside the box.

5 comments:

The reality is, the dam will be built. Accept it, and try to find solutions. Ethiopia needs the dam and will build the dam. In 1981, when Mubarak took power, the population of Egypt was 40 million. When Mubarak left power in 2011, the population was 80 million. That means that the country and its water needs more than doubled in size in 30 years. That is crazy. However, it is not Ethiopia's fault or problem that the people in Egypt are unable to practice birth control.

Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopian should form an economic and political union so that all economic decisions are made for the benefit of all three of them. In the absence of that, we need to elect democratic and accountable leaders in each country so that they can reach a reasonable and fair decision. So far, non of these countries have a democratically elected leader, so their decision may not be rationale or in the best of interest of the people.

Dictators lacking legitmacy are unaccountable to no one and usually reach wrong decision, as history has proven based on the track record of dictators, from Hitler, Mussoloni, etc. Most of them love to go to war, because it does not cost them anything win or loose. They will stay in power unless someone overthrow them or die of natural causes.

The region is doomed unless we take a long view of that we need each other and work together, dictators and their ego may not allow us to do that, yet.

International River is not a credible organization. It is anti-dam and anti-civilization while living 24/7 air conditioned houses in CA. They issue statement after statement on all dams and there is nothing special about it. That is a business for them. So I do not take them seriously. It is good to see if there is any dam that they indorsed. None. They are

I managed to read the document and it is in fact in favor of building the dam and give no direct negative impact on water flow, unless there huge drought in Ethiopia in the time of filling the dam. Under worest case scenario of draught say between now and 2018, the Nile flow may reduce by 6%. I think a compromise can be reached in the unlikely worst scenario. If there is a drought in Ethiopia and Ethiopia would agree to stop filling the dam and let it flow. The Guardian has also reviewed the document to publish an article under the title of "Nile dam study fails to stem the tide of Egyptian indignation towards Ethiopia"

In fact quoting one of the panel of expert states " Not all independent analysts share this view, however. According to Dr Ana Cascão, a researcher at the Stockholm International Water Institute whose doctoral thesis analysed hydropolitics in the Nile basin, Egypt fought for the report to be kept secret. Cascão argues the study is largely optimistic about the Gerd's impacts – "and that's why Egypt was not happy for it to be released". It is critical about the dam's social and environmental impact, she says, "but otherwise – in terms of dam safety and even in terms of water going downstream – the report is quite positive".

Since there is no serious impact, Egypt want to keep the document secreat to that myth around the dam could be created and internal political problem could be diverted to Ethiopia. Morsi tried to divert the attention in the last minute without success. Still the new would be Mubarak II regim is trying to use the same tactic rather than engaging with African countries to develop Nile for the benefit of all. Nile belongs to 9 countries and the sooner Egypt work with the others, it will be beneficial to all. If not Egypt is the one who would lose the Nile. It need investment to keep the water recharge and flow in the nile basin countries. If they are not allowed to use the water for any other reason, they wouldn't care to protect it, and Nile will be dead in our generation. Hydro-dam is the best security for egypt to have continuous flow of water since the turbine cannot be moved unless the water is released. Ethiopia for example can build small micro-dams on each village to irrigate village farms, but by setting a big hydro-dam next to Sudan border, it is committing to sustainably recharging the dam and releasing it to Sudan and Egypt.

According to the guardian review of all countries Sudan is the bigest beneficiary of the dam since it will receive continuous flow of water from the dam in non-rainy seasons to use more water for irrigation.

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