Expectations of Turkey’s Economic Growth in 2020

Expectations of Turkey’s Economic Growth in 2020

Turkey has entered a strong rebalancing period and posted an all-time record high for its current account surplus. Country’s 12-month rolling surplus amounted to $4.3 billion in October 2019 which stands in stark contrast to the USD 38.9 billion deficit recorded in the 12 months up to October 2018.

As a result of these developments, most of the global financial organizations and rating agencies revised their growth targets for Turkey.

On November 21, The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its forecast for Turkey’s GDP to 0.3 percent from -0.3 percent for 2019 and to 3 percent from 1.6 for 2020.

Previously, in mid-October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its expectations from -2.5 percent to 0.2 for 2019 and from 2.5 percent to 3 for 2020.

Also previously in October, the World Bank revised its easy of doing business list Turkey ranked 33rd in the World Bank’s 2020 ease of doing business report.

According to the European Commission’s European Economic Forecast Autumn 2019 Report, the forecast for Turkey’s GDP growth in 2019 rose to 0.3 percent from -2.3, while the forecast for 2020 has been revised to 3.1 percent.

Moody’s also revised upwards its GDP forecasts for Turkey to 0.2 percent for 2019 and to 3 percent for 2020.

On the other hand, according to the global audit and consultancy firm KPMG Turkish economy showed a better performance than expected despite political tensions in 2019.Year 2020 will be a solid year for Turkish banking sector. Digital transformation is at the first priority of the sector and continues to allocate more investment expenditure to improve their digital channels.

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