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NHL Picks

NHL Betting - Sabres Are Live Home Underdog vs. Oilers

NHL handicapping specialist Ross Benjamin has 1 game on Tuesday’s card that stands above all the rest. Ross not only shares that pick, he details why he’s chosen it throughout the course of this informative article.

The Sabres and Oilers collide at Key Bank Center in downtown Buffalo on Tuesday evening. Each team will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days. These teams met earlier this season in Edmonton, and Buffalo skated away with a 6-2 win.

Edmonton is coming off a 2-1 home loss to Minnesota on Sunday. The Oilers are a dismal 0-5 this season following a 1-goal loss. Edmonton has also gone an abysmal 1-16 since the start of last season following a game in which they scored 1-goal or less.

Expected Starting Goaltenders

Although it’s yet to be confirmed, there’s a high probability it will be Cam Talbot in goal for Edmonton, and Anders Nilsson will be between the pipes for Buffalo.

Cam Talbot was the starting goaltender in the Oilers home loss in October to Buffalo. He was extremely shaky in that outing, allowing 6 goals on just 23 shots. Talbot is 13-11 in 24 starts this season and has a solid .916 save percentage. However, over his last 4 starts he’s compiled an uninspiring .884 save percentage.

Anders Nilsson has been a reliable backup to #1 goaltender Robin Lehner, and he’s been especially sharp at home. During his 5 starts on home nice, Nilsson is 3-2 with a stellar .947 save percentage. This will be his first career appearance against his former team.

NHL Betting Angle Favors Home Underdog Sabres

Buffalo has converted on a very good 21.7% of their power play opportunities this season. The Sabres have also amassed 33 or more shots on goal in each of their previous 3 games. It sets up an extremely profitable money line betting algorithm that’s been successful over the past 21 seasons and is applicable to this specific game.

Any money line underdog of +100 to +200 (Buffalo), converting on 17.5% or better of their power play attempts, and they had 33 shots or more on goal in each of their previous 3 games, resulted in those home underdogs going 35-20 (63.6%) since 1996. Anytime we can get a 60% or better league wide angle favoring a money line underdog it qualifies as a terrific betting value. One of my Tuesday NHL picks will be indicative of that statement.