Ballot-game: Why democracy in Egypt will always be a dream

Some claim that the liberals naively hoped that they would see a repeat of what happened after the protests that brought the Mubarak regime to its knees.

By Noah Feldman

In case you still thought Egypt's coup was leading to democracy, the violent destruction of Muslim Brotherhood protest camps on Wednesday and the appointment of 19 generals as provincial governors — occurring more or less simultaneously — should cure you of that appealing fantasy.

When generals come to power, even if they are initially motivated by the ideal of restoring democracy, the attraction of remaining in power for as long as it takes to establish a military order tends to be decisive. When a regime that generals have deposed was democratically elected, as it was in Egypt, the odds of restoration are even more remote. Western democrats want to love the Egyptian liberals who bravely helped bring down Hosni Mubarak and then misguidedly followed the same playbook to sink the legitimately elected Mohamed Morsi.

But the emerging reality poses a puzzle about those Egyptian liberals and their country's future: why in the world did thoughtful believers in democracy think that it was a good idea to stage protests that would invite the army to take out Morsi? And what, if anything, can be done now to get democracy back on track in Egypt?

After Ballot & Bullet

Some claim that the liberals naively hoped that they would see a repeat of what happened after the protests that brought the Mubarak regime to its knees. The trouble with this idealistic view is that the army didn't especially want to hold elections after Mubarak was removed. It was pressured into it by the Muslim Brotherhood, which was — alongside the army — the only other well-organised, disciplined and effective national organisation.

The army and the Muslim Brotherhood both expected that the Islamists would prevail in elections. The army didn't much like that, but it feared that if it didn't allow elections in the wake of the Arab Spring, it would lose public support. It therefore gambled on cutting a deal with the Brotherhood. Once public protests peaked against Morsi and the Brotherhood, however, the army no longer had to worry that suppressing the only force capable of balancing it would be seen as totally unpopular.

To put it bluntly: the liberal protesters in the streets gave the army cover to take out the Brotherhood. The protesters should have seen it coming. A more cynical view is that the liberals knew the army would suppress the Brotherhood — and wanted it to happen. The Brotherhood could be counted on to like elections as long as it was winning them, but its commitments to liberal rights were paper-thin. After the drafting of the Islamic-oriented constitution, the liberals feared that the public was willing to take a chance on the Brotherhood. That frightened the liberals, who had by then lost the parliamentary and presidential polls.

Knowing they couldn't win at the ballot, the liberals were happy to let the army take care of their electoral nemesis.

Brotherhood Will Be Back

Either way, the question remains: can democracy be salvaged in Egypt? At some not-very-distant point, the generals will stage an election, if only to satisfy the US. The Muslim Brotherhood may not be formally banned from participating, but in any case, its senior leadership will be either in prison or disqualified from running, or both.

It may well boycott the election. If the liberals run for office and some get elected, they will soon see that the army has no interest in relinquishing meaningful power to them. So long as the Brotherhood still exists, the liberals' position in power will be completely dependent upon the military's good offices in excluding the Brotherhood.

In exchange, the military will expect obedience from the civilian leadership: not just on defence and foreign policy, but also domestic policy insofar as it involves preserving the prerogatives of the army and its self-controlled business empire. Oh, and free speech, which will have to be controlled to keep the Islamists from denouncing the government as illegitimate. And free assembly, which will have to be prohibited so the Brotherhood doesn't organise more protests.

Freedom of religion? Forget about it. The upshot? The liberal rights sought by the protesters won't exist — not just for the Brotherhood but also for them. Their principles gone, they will be tarred by the brush of collaboration. And the Islamists will be back. The next time, though, it won't be by the ballot.