If you’re not a fan of 12-time Olympic medalistNatalie Coughlin, I don’t know if we can be friends. Natalie’s swim-fan-fun you can count on, medaling at the Olympics every time she steps on the blocks.

Natalie’s 33 years old. Is Omaha her last trip to U.S. Olympic Trials? I don’t think so. I take Natalie at her word when she says she loves the elite swimming lifestyle, staying in shaping, pushing her limits. Natalie’s going to stay fit and race fast as long as she possibly can.

Will she make the U.S. Olympic Team? That’s a tough question. Natalie’s on the bubble. When Natalie missed making the 2015 World Championship team, I was a little surprised. However, when she performed at the 2015 Pan Am Games, I was not surprised. Natalie’s a big meet swimmer. She simply knows how to race when it counts.

At U.S. Olympic Trials, Natalie rallies, turning in a great performance. I’d like to see Natalie makes her 4th Olympic Team on the 4×100 free relay, and I’d like to see her edge a spot in the 100 backstroke. That would put her in a position to win potentially 3 more medals, the third being a prelim swim on the 4×100 medley relay. I’ll concede Natalie’s in a fight for her life at US Olympic Trials, but with her Olympic track-record, I see her performing while other swimmers fall short due to nerves and pressure.

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Mel, this is probably the first prediction I fully agree with you and this was my bet.

Coughlin can get a spot on 100 back (Might even get the first spot as Missy still need to show she is the 2012/2013 Missy) and a spot on the relay.

But can´t see her getting 3 medals, even having the chance. But she has a chance of medalling on 4×100 free, Australia is a world apart, but based on US trials results, we can see anything ranging from Silver to 4th (Battle with Canada and Netherlands)
On 4×100 medley with Vollmer and Meili I find it hard US not medalling, just don´t know about which medal they can get.

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2 years ago

stephen

Similar to the 4 x 100m Free Aust is a considerable distance ahead in the 4 x 100m Medley relay. They have the Best Freestyler (Cate) and Backstroker (Seebohm). A superstar in the making for Breaststroke (Bohl) and a top 3 Butterflyer in McKeon…But i also feel the US is a fair way in front of the other nations for Silver.

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2 years ago

Rafael

I am not so sure about far ahead for silver.. a little ahead I would say
China is a question mark, no one knows what to expect
Canada now is on the game, Masse, Nicol, Oleksiak and Chantal/Sandrine might surprise.
Sweden can always put something, but they need Johanson and Sjostrom to give their best..
Denmark is a question too, Blume and Pederson are not on their best right now..

Right now I would give 0% of winning chances to the US women’s medley. All depends on the state of US backstroke. All depends in fact on Missy Franklin, the only US girl who, at her best, can swim 58.50 and under. Let’s see the trials and if Missy is again the real Missy, the percentage will grow a lot. Anyway, it’s simple, the fact that Cate Campbell can go at least 1 second faster than the best US sprinter so it will force the US relay to be at least 1 second ahead of the Australian relay before freestyle. And the only chance it can happen means that Missy Franklin has to touch first after backstroke. Even with that… Read more »

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2 years ago

Steve Nolan

Bahhahahaah 0% chance. This is a poor understanding of statistics, I think.

I have a 0% chance of winning that medley. The US women’s chances are slightly higher.

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2 years ago

Rafael

Well even 2012 Missy won´t beat 2015/2016 Seebohm, but Meili will beat Bohl, maybe by a second.. about Vollmer and Mckeon, if Vollmer does not increase US lead to at least 1 second, maybe even more.. C1 will crush US..
But if no US backstrocker gets under 59, then it is game over, Vollmer and Mckeon will probably get to the wall together, maybe with a 0,3 0,4 advantage which is not enough to Hold C1 Sister.

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2 years ago

Smoothswimmer

Bobo honey,
American girls have more than zero chance to win women’s medley relay.
Maybe you meant that for the French girls?

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2 years ago

tea rex

BOBO –
USA hasn’t had their trials yet. 2015 championship teams were decided at 2014 Summer Nats, and the top swimmers were all over the board (Pan Ams Medley Relay was faster than their “World Championship” team). A lot of the top swimmers have been wrapped up with college, and only have a few LCM meets

America’s best medley relay on paper is: 59.0 bk, 1:05.3 br, 56.9 fly, 53.5 fr.
With the depth of American talent, I expect those times might not even make the team in some strokes.

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2 years ago

ice age swimmer

USA secret weapon in 2 words: LILY KING!!!!!

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2 years ago

Hayden Fry

Meili won’t be swimming the final on the medley.

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2 years ago

Jeahswim

Don’t throw out the American in terms of winning gold. If missy or coughlin can get close to seebhom in the backstroke, the Americans have a faster breast and fly leg thanks to vollmer and Melli. If they have a good enough lead whoever anchors the relay could potentially just get jacked up and get the gold

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2 years ago

ice age swimmer

LILY KING!!!

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2 years ago

SamH

If I was asked right after last summer how fast I’d say Coughlin would go, I would probably hope for something like 58.7 (really just sub 59) and also 53.5 or faster. She hasn’t really shown anything in backstroke this year, seems like she is consistently going 1:01s. However, slow in season is never a guarantee you’ll be slow come taper, so I haven’t given up. Her freestyle on the other hand I think has looked pretty good this year. I think she’s consistently been sub 55 which always good, not sure what her fastest is this year. But altogether, I think 53.5 and a relay spot is still achievable. Final predictions: 100 back: 59.22, pretty much the same as… Read more »

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2 years ago

Person

It’s similar to how the men’s 200 free is right now, isn’t it? There are so many guys that could go under 1:47 to 1:48 yet it doesn’t look like and American will bring home a medal from Rio. Same case with the women’s 100 free. It would be great if B-relays were allowed…

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2 years ago

Rafael

Why B Relay? US A Team might be enough to fight Netherlands and Canada.. but a B Team would not be good enough for that.. so that would not change anything..

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2 years ago

PVSFree

He means if there were a heat just with B teams, the US would win just because of their depth in the men’s 200 free/women’s 100 free

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2 years ago

Uberfan

Have to disagree with you here. The USA has 1 person who can go 1:44 and combining that with someone who can go 1:45 low I think it’s safe to say they are bound to medal. Worlds proved that at its best no one comes close to USA

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2 years ago

Person

Well it’ll be close. With Guy, Yang, McEvoy, Biedermann (just to name a few) it looks like the majority of the final will be 1:45 or better. Right now Lochte is the only American that’s gone that fast individually in recent years. I hate to say it but I just don’t think he can medal in the 200 free. Same with Dwyer. It seems like the only way an American can win a medal in the 200 free would be if Haas manages to translate that 1:30 to LCM (and there has been a lot of discussion about that already).

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2 years ago

Briand

The US men are prohibitive favorites in the 200 free relay. it won’t be close. They will be in the mix for individual medals as well, although it wide open there.

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2 years ago

bobo gigi

USA doesn’t need more depth in the women’s sprint. They have the number. USA needs stars. Big sprint stars. The last 2 US sprint stars were Dara Torres and Jenny Thompson. It’s been a while. The top world level is under 53 now. The 54-barrier doesn’t mean anything.

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2 years ago

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly.
As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …