ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002
LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF T.D. SEVEN-E
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS INDICATED BY THE FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD IN FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE ADVISORY AND
FORECAST POSITIONS ARE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK...AND FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE LATER
TODAY WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
300/9...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK
IN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS.
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0...30 KNOTS...FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 2.5...35 KNOTS...FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE DEPRESSION. THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL 36 HOURS WHEN THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 14.2N 121.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 07/0000Z 15.3N 122.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.1N 124.3W 35 KTS
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 126.1W 30 KTS
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
NNNN