Colts at Patriots: How we see it

Saturday

Jan 11, 2014 at 12:01 AM

JONATHAN COMEY

PATRIOTS 28, COLTS 14

For most of the week, I was dreading making the pick my gut was suggesting — Colts in an upset. After all, it's no fun to pick against the home team, even if you're just doing your job. But while Andrew Luck still scares me, he scares me a whole lot less on what's supposed to be a rainy, windy night in Foxboro.

The Patriots have had fortune on their side in many of their deep playoff runs, and the weather forecast is another huge break — it plays right into the Patriots' hand. As we spotlighted early on in the week, the Patriots' running backs are truly weapons. Against the Colts' subpar run defense (an annual standby), they should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage no matter how bad it gets. And it's not as if Indy can stack the box against the run, because Tom Brady is one of the most experienced bad weather quarterbacks there is.

In other words, New England is going to be able to score points. The concern going into the week is whether they'd be able to stop the Colts from scoring more, but Luck doesn't have the same experience Brady does and Indy doesn't have the same ability at tailback. While the Colts can't key on the run and hope for the best from Brady, I think the Patriots will be able to take more chances assuming that the Colts' passing game can't adjust to the weather. Indy doesn't have the big boomers on the offensive line to dominate, and while New England's defensive front is very thin, they're coached up and well-prepared.

A win would send the Patriots to their eighth conference championship game in 13 seasons, comparable to the 49ers' great run of eight conference title games over 12 seasons from 1983-1994.

TIM WEISBERG

NEW ENGLAND 38, COLTS 24

New England is the team that always seems to come back from large deficits this season, but the Colts must have been watching and learning since they had a 28-point comeback of their own last week against the Chiefs. But can Indy ride that momentum to another win?

Last week, they allowed Alex Smith to throw for 378 yards and four touchdowns, and KC ran for 150 yards on the ground, even with Jamaal Charles limited to just three carries. If they allow those kinds of numbers to Tom Brady, LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley, there won't be much of a chance for a comeback or any other kind of win.

The way New England has been running the ball over the past couple of weeks is the perfect fit for the expected weather conditions; that said, Brady's certainly going to test the Colts' shaky secondary right from the start.

Defensively, Robert Mathis is a huge challenge for the Patriots, but he may be neutralized a bit by the game conditions. Mathis has 19.5 sacks on the season, but 13 of those came at home, under the dome at LucasOil Stadium. Whether or not he can be a disruptive force outdoors, in the rain, will determine if the Colts can get to Brady.

Meanwhile, the loss of Brandon Spikes will hurt the Pats' ability to hold back Indy's rushing attack, but as long as the secondary can limit receiver T.Y. Hilton's production and the defensive line can keep Andrew Luck contained, the Patriots should advance to the AFC title game for the third straight season.