TexansChickhttps://blog.chron.com/texanschick
A Texans fan blog with Stephanie StradleyWed, 17 Jul 2013 02:27:54 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.4Here’s the new location of my Texans writing at Chron.comhttps://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/07/steph-stradley-blog-location/
https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/07/steph-stradley-blog-location/#respondWed, 17 Jul 2013 02:27:54 +0000http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/?p=2844The Houston Chronicle, like some other newspapers, is consolidating its blogs to make it easier for readers to find content and to make it easier to sell to advertisers.

If you don’t have the link, you can find my stuff at the Ultimate Texans site by clicking on the “Voices” tab at the top of the screen. In addition, I also have a link to the new location in my Twitter profile @StephStradley (a handy place to keep up with Texans things that aren’t worth writing up in a blog post).

This will be my third blog location at Chron.com since 2006, and for readers who have hung out with me since then, and newer readers, I thank you and would very much like to see you at my new joint. Please be sure say “hi” so I know you found it.

I discovered last night that the top searches to find my blog are: “DeAndre Hopkins, Texans, squirrel crying, Houston Texans.”

Perhaps these are all signs that this is finally the Houston Texans’ year. Because I’m reaching.

The Texans have a giant lucky frog and Chuck Norris, and perhaps DeAndre Hopkins makes cornerbacks cry like squirrels, who I didn’t know cried but apparently they do because sick people search for that sort of thing.

I can tell you I’ve never said anything about squirrels on the blog, crying or otherwise. Will tell you that there are all sort of critters who walk by the sliding glass doors next to my computer as I write these things. Possums, raccoons, a bird that looked like a ninja, and two demented squirrels who chase and scream at each other but do not cry.

OK, enough with the random digression.

Each year, I write about past things projecting the present. Fans call talk radio saying definitive things about the coaches or the players or whatever.

We do it because that is all that we know right now. But ultimately each year’s team is its own thing.

“I think everything’s new. Every season is different. My concern is how good our team is, not just with the win-loss; how good is our football team? You can win a championship and win 10 games in this league. You can get knocked out in the first round and win 13 or 14. My key is, can we get better? Can we get these young guys to help us real quick? We lost a few more guys again this year to replace. I’m just trying to get this group heading; find out where we’ll be in 2013. But I expect us to be a good team.”

Not an unsurprising answer, and I even got an “in this league” in the quote which may have meant I won Kubiak coach speak bingo that day.

2013 Predictions.

I can’t quibble with anything Kubiak said. Including the expectation that this is going to be a good team.

Each year there is a new narrative and new complaints. Last year was all about “Fire Marciano” and “Why are we running on 3rd and long?” and the “J.J. Watt best ever defensive season” sort of thing. In 2005, there were threads on Texans message boards to fire Dom Capers and put Joe Marciano as a caretaker head coach because his group was the only good one. And there’s been years where the Texans actually are very good on third and long. And when J.J. Watt was drafted, some doofus wrote it was a mistake and called him a “pizza boy.”

I think each year there are some predictable things. Like in 2010, it was pretty obvious looking at the Texans defensive roster and coaching, that the secondary was going to be really, really bad because they were so young. Some years the issue is red zone production. Some years the issue is slow offensive starts.

Too many years the issue was oh @#$% this defense is terrible.

But then, just about every year, there are the bad luck things. Fluke injury to Matt Schaub in 2011. Fluke injury to Brian Cushing in 2012. In an inherently violent sport, injuries are predictable; you just don’t know who loses the lotto.

This is what I expect, right now, not knowing injuries but knowing what positions are thin:

Defense: I expect the defense to be good again. They have a proven scheme with a play caller who knows it well. They have playmakers at all levels of the defense. The key playmakers are in Year 3 of what Wade Phillips wants them to do. They do have rookies and inexperienced players who will be expected to contribute, but they are not a key part of the defense.

Don’t like how it is thin in some spots but that is all teams. Would hate to think of last year had J.J. Watt’s elbow injury in camp been a season-ending one.

I expect the defense to dominate bad teams. I have more concern with the defense as it relates to spread defense against quality quarterbacks and against read option/pistol sorts of things. They do not practice much against those formations, and even if they did, it is hard to simulate offenses that do these things well. They’ve struggle against these things in the past. Thinking: Saints 4th quarter 2011, Green Bay, Patriots 2012, Panthers 2011.

Assuming health, more often than not the defense will be able to keep the Texans in most games, and like the last two years, help affirmatively win those games.

Offense: I’m encouraged with some young offensive linemen getting another year in the offense and the Texans acquiring DeAndre Hopkins to help the wide receivers. I also think that Matt Schaub another year removed from hurting his foot and riding around on a scooter will be helpful. That being said, I’m thinking that 2013, like 2012, will be another year of offensive accommodation.

Right tackle is unproven. Right guard is promising and unproven. The line works its best as a group. Yes, the Texans were able to move the ball last year. By air, by run. But it wasn’t nearly as efficient as it normally is. And I think, though the Texans would never confirm publicly, there were some play calling accommodations made for the inexperience at the line, along with not being able to trust the 3-5 wide receivers.

By Football Outsiders charting numbers, the Texans used 3+ WRs at a rate of 42% in 2009, 43% in 2010. The 4+ WRs percentages were 11% and 4% respectively. In 2011, that number dropped to 24% with 0% of the snaps going to 4+ WRs. I’m guessing the 2012 snaps are similar to 2011.

Part of that is an improved defense, which means you don’t need to go full boogie air it out because Texans are too far behind to run. But part of that was personnel. Thin wide receiver group, more trust in tight ends means, less 3+ WRs.

Different years, different teams.

I think that the Texans offense will have a basic level of proper function because of scheme and some key playmakers. By Football Outsiders standards, the worst ranked Texans Schaub-Kubiak offense was last year at 16th overall, and for the first time had numbers below league average, mostly due to the late season issues. And they still won 12 games in the regular season. Most years, even with various injuries to Schaub, Andre Johnson, not having a real running game etc, they’ve had an above average offense, a few times way above average.

I think that the Texans will have splashy run TD numbers, but not very good yard per carry numbers due to line transitions and that I expect the defense to be good again. A good defense means that the Texans will run into some unfavorable fronts late in games closing them out.

I think the passing game will be a bit like a roller coaster. Unproven wide receivers can both impress and infuriate, all in the same game.

I do not think that last year was “Same Old Schaub” and here’s my blog post that discusses that. (Please do not derail the comments into all Schaub-talk because its pointless and boring). It was Schaub-Kubiak’s worst passing efficiency year, and down the stretch, it often looked miserable. I don’t know what to predict for his season because so many factors involved….health, line, WRs, age, learning. He’s had moments, but hopefully, he isn’t put into too many positions where he has to carry the team. He mostly needs to play within himself. It will be challenging because on-the-same page with unproven wide receivers + unproven line isn’t ideal for any quarterback.

Special Teams.

I expect special teams to be better. Because hard to be worse. This year, the Texans had a rookie minicamp for the first time in forever, and this group of rookies Kubiak says is ahead. Last year’s special teams errors were a key part of the Texans not getting the number one seed in the playoffs, and the Texans do not want a repeat of that. Usually, when the team has had a poor ST year, the next year is better.

I think the addition of team speed on special teams will help. Hopefully, not losing all the linebackers to injuries would help too.

Uncertain about returners. Not a ton of speedsters competing for the job–it has been the track speed fast guys who have been standouts on special teams returns in the past.

The addition of punter Shane Lechler will be helpful. He kicks a booming, difficult to return ball, and maybe he is a difference maker in a few games when the Texans have the opportunity to flip the field.

I have concerns about kickoff depth and field goals. So far, there is nothing that I’ve seen in second year kicker Randy Bullock that gives me confidence that he can make all the no-brainer distance field goals. I dearly hope to get that confidence as the season progresses and he does as well as the Ravens rookie kicker Justin Tucker did last year.

Lucky frogs, Chuck Norris, making squirrels cry.

The last two seasons, I would have liked the Texans chances if key guys stayed healthy, and were healthy down the stretch. Can’t know the alternative histories.

As Kubiak said, each team is its own deal but he expects it to be good. I do too.

How good, we don’t know. But I can tell you, this is a lot better position to be in than those bad old days of when the Texans were a team in the offseason where you knew they didn’t even have a chance to make the playoffs.

What is your way too early projection of this 2013 team? What do you think of my way too early thoughts?

]]>https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/07/keys-to-houston-texans-next-level/feed/0Texans mythbusters: The Texans are not a “run first team”https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/07/texans-mythbusters-the-texans-are-not-a-run-first-team/
https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/07/texans-mythbusters-the-texans-are-not-a-run-first-team/#respondThu, 04 Jul 2013 01:11:15 +0000http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/?p=2817I read a lot of Texans content. And on of the most repeated things I read about the Texans that I think is WRONG WRONG WRONG is the statement that the Texans are a “run first team.”

I think that some of these comments come from people who have only been sorta watching the Texans since they’ve had an actual, non-embarrassing NFL defense.

2011. Hello Wade Phillips. Glad you are building your house in Houston.

Now when I hear the term, “run first team,” it usually refers to garbage offenses that draft a good running back, run him into the ground because they don’t have a sensible offensive scheme, quarterback and have few choices. You know which teams I’m thinking of. I won’t name names, because that would just be piling on.

Now, there is no doubt, that the Texans will run the ball. Because usually they can and have become good at it.

“Run first” different than run TDs.

Rick Dennison was the Oline coach and then the offensive coordinator for some Broncos teams that had any number of running backs have sporty seasons. When he came to the Texans to be Offensive Coordinator, he was surprised how well the Texans moved the ball despite having no consistent running game.

That actually was too kind a statement. By Football Outsiders numbers, the Texans were 8th in passing efficiency, 32nd in running efficiency in 2009.

Part of that is for the Texans offense, the running game doesn’t have to work. It looks better when both the run and pass are working, but each component of the game needs to be at least semi-credible.

But when Dennison came to the team, he wanted the Texans offensive line to be dominant in the redzone, to be able to impose their will in the redzone by running the ball whenever they want to. And that was the beginning of Arian Foster vulturing a lot of redzone TDs. Why risk a interception when a lot of times Foster can just pick his way through the blocks and walk into the endzone? (Not as flashy as a passing TD, but I got to tell you I very much enjoy the Foster untouched, saunter-in TDs. Namaste y’all.)

Recently, both Paul Kuharsky at ESPN and Tania Ganguli from the Chronicle wondered about the lower percentage of passing Texans TDs relative to elite offenses. I’m not sure that changes even with personnel moves to the offensive line and receiver group because I think that is an intentional decision. They run because they think they can run, and relative to the rest of the league they run better than most. I also think that from a game to game perspective, I think it depends on what they think the best play would be against a particular defense.

Aspiring for offensive balance, keeping defenses off track.

Now probably the best recent description of the Texans offensive strategy comes from a Mike Silver article last year after the dismantling of the Ravens. Why do you know it is spot on? Because it heavily quotes former Texans QB Sage Rosenfels, and isn’t some random national writer dude who saw the Texans play a few nationally televised games the last few years or focuses on fantasy football stats or slept at a Holiday Inn Express one night and then tries to state his definitive opinion about the Texans.

The foundation of Kubiak’s offense, according to Rosenfels, is that players are coached to behave almost identically on running and passing plays. Defenders are constantly kept off balance because they can’t be sure that what they’re seeing is actually what’s taking place – and because if they take aggressive action to stop a particular type of play, Kubiak has a built-in mechanism for making them pay.

“They’re the ultimate play-action team,” Rosenfels explained. “They teach you to behave very similarly on run plays and pass plays, and it’s very easy to get fooled. There were times when I played there that the back judge would walk up and say, ‘Guys, I can’t tell when it’s a run and when it’s a pass – your play action’s that good.’ For example, the fullback on a pass play will still hit the linebacker as hard as he can, like he would [run-blocking]. You really keep the defense on their toes, ’cause everything looks the same.”

The Texans offense ideally is intended to keep defenses off-balance. They recognize that defensive linemen typically are more athletic than offensive linemen. You can either spend your draft resources trying to out athlete on the offensive line, or you try to scheme around that some by not having a one-dimensional offense that allows defenders to tee off on your offense.

Another key is to keep down and distance sane. All offenses say that they want to do that, but it is particular important, almost a religion, to the Texans due to the composition of their offensive line. This offense and offensive line works best when they are not predictably pass.

None of the guys on the Texans offensive line in recent years were on Mel Kiper’s draft besties list. Many were lower round draft picks or unheralded free agents. Their value to the Texans comes from athleticism and being able to move and work together, not just sheer size and strength. Their value comes from misdirection over just brute force, and that eventually they can wear down defensive lines, especially if they get a lead. If you talk to the linemen, they will tell you that run blocking is both fun and hard, and that they are dead tired after a long drive, but that this is harder on the defensive linemen because they aren’t typically used to playing against a majority zone blocking team that does it well.

There have been games prior to Phillips taking over the defense, where the Texans offense had to be more pass-oriented than their preference just to stay in games. That no lead was safe, and teams could score on the Texans pretty much at will. But ideally, you don’t want a season where Matt Schaub is going for 4770 yards and averaging almost 300 yards a game like he did in 2009. If that is happening with the Texans offensive scheme, that likely means the defense is terrible.

[As an aside, I want you to notice in that article the demands that are put on the pass targets in this offense. As the article notes, “The scheme succeeds partly because of painstaking preparation, beginning over the offseason and continuing in the days leading up to games, and requires skill-position players to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the offense. Receivers must learn not only their own routes but also those of their counterparts, because another Kubiak staple is to disguise plays by transposing players at the line of scrimmage.”

That is one of the challenges with incorporating a lot of inexperienced players at the wide receiver position. Can they learn the offense well enough for it to run at maximum efficiency for the pass? Seriously, if you haven’t read that article, please do. And if that is not enough, read my 2006 post about the installation of the offense from my old blog. Most of it is very on-point and some of it is hilariously optimistic. My name is no longer in the header but it is in the byline at the bottom. Blog posts are amazing time capsules.]

Game context. Run and pass is not in a vacuum.

In 2010, people complained that the Texans gave up on the run too early in games. And they did that sometimes because they got behind. That is what will happen when you have an all inexperienced secondary. In recent years, the complaint is that the Texans run too much, particularly in the second half of games against unfavorable fronts.

The ideal game plan for the Texans is to get an early lead through a balanced attack that takes advantage of defensive weaknesses, and then run it down the opponents throat in the second half of games. Thanks to an improved defense, the Texans were at the top of the league the last two years in time of possession. Though time of possession doesn’t necessarily equal wins, it is a formula that tends to work in the Texans favor. The quarterback that is sitting on the bench isn’t beating your team.

Here is a number that surprises a lot of people who think the Texans are a “run first” offense….

Do you know which team threw the ball the most in the first half of games on first down? Throwing on first down is typically seen as a more aggressive offensive play.

According to the Pro Football Reference Game Play Finder, the Patriots were number one, the Texans were number two. Most of the offenses that you think of as pass heavy tend to be on the top of the list. Most of the offenses that you tend to think as sucky run heavy tend to be on the bottom of the list:

Do you know what teams ran the ball the most on first down in the second half of games in 2012?

PFR Game Play Finder says Patriots top number of 1st down, second half runs, Texans tied for 6th with Green Bay and Chicago. Now the numbers reflect that the Patriots pace of play gets a ton of snaps in general, and that they still had a lot of passing snaps on first down but not nearly the same ratio as in the first half of games. The Texans go very run heavy in the second half of games in 2012. Here’s the raw numbers:

Now why is this the case? Texans had so many first half leads and actual good defense for most weeks they were using the second half of games to eat clock with the run, which they could often do.

Here’s the first down, second half passing numbers between the years 2007-2010. Schaub-Kubiak, with an inconsistent running game and a defense that could hold few leads. Very pass heavy on first down:

Just a game situation thing and not a scheme thing. You got the lead, you can afford to run and burn clock. You don’t have the lead, your defense sucks, you need to be more risk taking, eat less clock.

To semi-traumatize you and put these numbers in perspective, here’s the Carr-Kubiak 2006 numbers for first down play calls in the second half of games. Still a terrible defense that put them in holes, but by the end of the year having only one healthy option at QB and one you couldn’t trust:

Balance.

Ultimately, the Texans aspire for balance in their offensive scheme. I wish I had a dollar for every time Gary Kubiak or players talked in a post-game about trying to get balance in the offense to keep defenses guessing. Or not being happy getting pass heavy because he was behind in a game. Or talking about running the ball like crazy because they were on a roll. Or getting out of balance because of something they saw in the defense. Here’s just a few month selection:

TE Owen Daniels 1/11/13 quote: “You know, we’re spreading the ball around to a lot of people and it keeps defenses off balance and makes them have to be pretty conscious of a lot of different things going on. We’ll do what we do and hopefully we’ll stay balanced and things will work out that way.”

OC Rick Dennison 1/9/13 quotes: (on how the team can contain New England DT Vince Wilfork) “We just keep throwing things at him. Hopefully we can keep him off balance. One of the things we were successful at last weekend against the Bengals is the score was in our favor or relatively equal, so we can run-pass. Those are the best options. When you get to an all-pass, it makes it difficult for an offensive linemen when you have people as talented as (Cincinnati DT Geno) Atkins and certainly Wilfork.” (Steph note: The Wilfork plan didn’t really work. Obv.)

TE Owen Daniels 1/5/13 quote: “Absolutely. Any time you can contribute to a win, a playoff win, you have to feel good about that. I was fortunate to get some opportunities so I tried to make the most of the. It was one of those games where we were going to be running it, trying to stay balanced. Like you said, we were grinding it out there. We had to run it when everyone knew we were going to run it.”

HC Gary Kubiak 12/19/13 quote: “We want to be balanced, so, like the other day, I like the way we played. We ran for 180 and threw for 260. That’s where we want to be. When we’re doing those type of things, we’re usually staying on the field and helping our defense. (WR) Andre (Johnson) has been exceptional, (RB) Arian (Foster) has been there all year long. Arian is a workhorse-type of guy. We get (RB) Ben (Tate) back. I think that’s a good thing now that he’s kind of playing the way he’s capable of playing. Hopefully we can continue to do those type of things. That’s the key to our successful football team, being able to do some of those things and protecting the football along the way.”

LT Duane Brown 12/19/12 quote: (on how important it is for the Texans to run the ball effectively) “It means a lot. When you’re not one-dimensional, teams can’t really get a read on what you’re trying to do. For us, it all starts with the run game. We’re able to run the ball well, get teams keying on that, and it opens up a whole lot for our offense; and if you’re able to do both, stay balanced throughout the whole game, it opens up our whole playbook.”

WR Andre Johnson 12/19/12 quote: (on the balance of the Texans’ offense and using the play-action) “When we’re able to run the ball well, it just opens up everything else. It’s always been like that since (Head) Coach (Gary) Kubiak has been here. When they brought in this style of offense, whenever the run game is going, it just opens up everything else. Sometimes you may run the ball and you may not hit those big runs like you want to at first, but you may hit a few passes and you see the run game open up and then everything else becomes kind of easy. I think that’s the biggest thing for us is just getting our run game going. When we do that, we tend to win a lot of games and it just opens everything else up.”

QB Matt Schaub 12/19/12 quote: (on how great it is to have RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson to have a balanced offense) “That’s what our offense is built on, is to be balanced. You look over the past few years and that’s when we’re playing our best. That’s when we’re playing our most efficient, is when we can run the football, be successful with that, couple that with our play action, our bootleg game, where we can take some shots down the field and be effective and keep our third downs manageable and then we’re converting on those. That all leads to us scoring points.”

OK, you get the point.

Yes. The Texans offense is devastatingly efficient when both the run and passing game is going. Balance. Does it work better when the run game gets going early? Sure. Is that necessary? No. In 2007-2009, the passing game got into many shootouts without a consistent running game. Wins were a struggle because the defense blew.

If you overgeneralize about the Texans as being “run first” because you saw some poor showings against Green Bay and the Patriots, then you are mistaking poor football games for scheme.

In other words, which “run first” team has a wide receiver who caught almost 1600 yards worth of passes and a quarterback, when healthy, consistently throws for over 4000 yards? They don’t. The Texans are not a run first team.

Ideally, balance. If opponents take away a part of their game, they have an offense that can go pass or run heavy at times–sometimes they are successful at that, sometimes not so much. They have won shootouts. They have won grind out games. They have played from ahead. They have played way too many games prior to Wade Phillips trying to catch up from behind. They can play different styles of offensive football but they prefer balance.

In other words, this is a +2500 word semi-rant about semantics.

It is not completely unrelated to conservative/aggressive play calling. Have some additional thoughts on that which may be surprising to you. That I think will be in a future post because this one is too long. Your thoughts? (And don’t be surprised if they show up in a future post because I’ll do that sometimes).

]]>https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/07/texans-mythbusters-the-texans-are-not-a-run-first-team/feed/0Over-sharing for the summer…Where I answer all your Texans questions and morehttps://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/answer-texans-questions-2013/
https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/answer-texans-questions-2013/#respondSun, 30 Jun 2013 15:43:50 +0000http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/?p=2812I’m working on a few Texans-specific topics, but wanted to pass along a few things that may be of interest.

This is a bunch of over-sharing, and is all about me, me, me with a bit of Texans, NFL and randomness thrown in:

Reply All. I am participating in something called, “Reply All.” It’s basically a written conversation where people can ask you questions about a subject, and then get them answered.

There is very little Texans stuff in my podcast. It is a very random conversation on a wide variety of subjects. Warning for delicate flowers. There is some cussing. I used one cuss word as it related to Bud Adams but it wasn’t even the word bad enough to describe him.

Husband Talking about Aaron Hernandez. As some of you know, my loving spouse is a former assistant district attorney for Harris County, a criminal defense lawyer, and is Board Certified in Criminal Law by the Texas Board of Legal Specialization. Sadly, these days, a detailed knowledge of criminal law comes in handy when talking various sports topics. Sports Radio 610 asked the husband various questions about the Aaron Hernandez situation and what the next steps are. I think it is a good convo, and certainly better than some of the legal analysis I hear which makes me cringe.

DeAndre Hopkins poses for my Twitter picture during rookie minicamp. May be best camp twitpic yet.

The Gary Kubiak-led Houston Texans have never picked a first-round wide receiver.

They’ve picked lower round receivers, none of whom have made a significant impact their first year (or any year).

Wide receiver is a position of opportunity. This year’s first round pick, DeAndre Hopkins is expected to get that opportunity. He will not be distracted/tired doing special teams returns. He will not be playing behind a very experienced wide receiver who will take his reps.

The Texans need DeAndre Hopkins to be a reliable option. They have no better choices at the #2 wide receiver spot.

Certainly, there are other targets in the offense in Andre Johnson, experienced tight ends and Arian Foster. But given how much the number 2 wide receiver is on the field, they need Hopkins to be a realistic, reliable option.

Looking at History

If the Kubiak Texans don’t have a long history with rookie wide receivers, how about the Broncos with Kubiak as offensive coordinator?

During his time with them, Ashley Lelie is the only first-round rookie wide receiver. In his rookie year of 2002, he played in 16 games, started 1, had 35 receptions for 525 yards, 2 TDs. The starters were dependable incumbents in Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey. His rookie stats were 1st in the AFC in yards (4th overall), and 3rd in receptions. Certainly better than the few Kubiak Texans’ wide receiver rookies who have received playing time.

Lelie’s best season was 2004, with 54 receptions for 1084 yards, 7 TDs. McCaffrey and Shannon Sharpe retired before that season, so more opportunities. All of his touchdowns were longer than 30 yards.

Smith and McCaffrey weren’t drafted by the Broncos, but certainly were developed by them and had their best years with them.

Ultimately, over the course of Mike Shanahan’s career with the Broncos, his track record developing drafted wide receivers was not good. Out of 16 drafted ones, none of them finished their rookie contracts for a variety of reasons.

To some degree, just size/athleticism isn’t as valued to the Texans’ (the former Broncos’) system as hands, precise route running, hard work. Yes, Kubiak can use a player with insane athleticism in Andre Johnson, but as something valued in the offense, he needs that insane athleticism to run precise routes, have great catch rates. Both things that Andre Johnson does extremely well.

Are wide receivers hard to project for this scheme? Is the difficulty of rookie wide receivers under this system ones of opportunity? Is the playbook too difficult, or the coaches too demanding? Is it a lack of patience?

Looking at Older History

You should not compare Jerry Rice to anyone. Because Jerry Rice is a subset of one.

The Shanahan/Kubiak system derives from the Bill Walsh tree. When Kubiak went to the 49ers, he was basically told to go into a room, watch all the old Bill Walsh coaching tapes, and not screw it up.

What I’d like you to do is to take a moment and read this history of Jerry Rice’s rookie season written by Mike Tanier in 2006 called, “Two Deep Zone: Jerry Rice, Rookie Bust.” His final numbers his rookie season were very good for most players of that era, much less a rookie: 49 receptions, 927 yards, 3 TDs.

But there were fans and media who were very frustrated with his sometimes inconsistent play. They wanted more targets to go to a more experienced wide receiver.

That is a small digression from the main point. Do not be comparing Hopkins to Rice, other than noting that if Jerry Freaking Rice can have public inconsistency struggles his rookie year with Joe Freaking Montana, expectations on Hopkins shouldn’t be insane.

Rice’s rookie year was before 24/7 media coverage of Tweets, goofy letter grades for draft picks, stupid listacles, LeBron is the worst, the awesome all at the same time. So in our instant analysis society, I’m just suggesting that sometimes this season, you may need to adjust your ear muffs a little tighter as it relates to wide receiver play.

Hopkins Projections

Hard to figure out what is realistic.

The Texans are certainly in win-now mode. This isn’t a team that will be feeding a rookie stats for the sake of stats, or will want to be extremely patient if his catch rate is terrible or making costly mistakes.

Though some people dismiss Kevin Walter as someone who was kept around just for blocking, his catch rate per Football Outsiders numbers for all his years with the Texans was never below 60% (much higher than non-AJ wide receivers in 2012). Not a flashy player, wasn’t going to demand a lot of targets nor attract attention away from Andre Johnson, but at a minimum, if the ball came his way, he more likely than not was going to catch the catchable balls and move the sticks.

Not suggesting that the Texans should have kept Walter, but just noting what Hopkins is expected to replace and be better than.

Walters’ catch rates with the Texans from 2006 to 2012 were: 81% (limited targets), 61%, 63%, 76%, 64%, 66%, 60%. His highest reception totals were 65, his first year with significant opportunities for the Texans. His highest receiving totals were the next year at 899 yards. His first year with the Texans he had limited opportunities with Eric Moulds taking the non-Andre Johnson targets.

In the 2012 camp, observers wanted the inexperienced wide receivers to take the job from Walter. And really, all throughout camp, there really wasn’t one guy who looked as consistent as Walter. And with limited targets, none of the inexperienced wide receivers demanded the #2 spot. Walter looked better than all of them in camp. And better than them in the season.

To give opportunities to the future, Kevin Walter is gone. The safety and comfort of a guy who knows what to do has been jettisoned for upside, development and the future.

The Walter numbers are a guide to the #2 WR position in the Texans offense. You would hope a first-round wide receiver draft pick could do better than that. At least eventually.

Will note, if the Texans defense has another good year, this may bring the gross passing numbers down some because they won’t be throwing from behind like they were during Walter’s best years. The catch rate is expected to be high however.

I think Hopkins fits very well in this offense. And I think that Hopkins has looked very good in offseason OTAs/minicamp. He’s playing with the first team, has first team expectations. And Kubiak and Andre Johnson have said good things about his progress.

So what do you think is realistic for his numbers in this offense? He isn’t meant to save what is predicted to be a very good team with many receiving targets in the offense. His role is to not screw things up and to make plays when the defense dictates that the ball goes his way.

Apologies if you thought I’d be answering the question in the headline. Don’t think anyone truly knows that answer. As usual, just trying to reasonably frame the question, and ask you to add your thoughts on the subject.

Teamwork! Don’t know for sure, but I think this picture was taken during special teams drills. All of mandatory minicamp was done no helmets. More teaching versus hitting. (photo courtesy of EdMatchettePhotography.com)

This is the time of year where Texans staffers take time off–post minicamp, pre-training camp.

The Texans players don’t really take time off because if they don’t come into camp in shape, they will be in big trouble. On the last day of minicamp, Gary Kubiak spoke to the young players a little extra, and I’m sure part of the talk was to be ready for camp. There’s always a few rookies that get in the doghouse if they aren’t ready.

The Texans are fussy about weight for their offensive linemen and wide receivers in particular. Houston has good food. Sometimes concern about weight plus good food is a bad combination.

In any event, Kubiak has repeatedly said that this group of young players seem ahead of the curve, and maybe it is because this year the Texans had the first rookie minicamp they’ve had in a long time. Usually the timing of when rookie minicamp can be held doesn’t work well with OTAs as I understand.

The way they structured this offseason it went: rookie minicamp, voluntary OTAs, then mandatory minicamp. But at mandatory minicamp, most of the first string players were excused from outdoor practice, and most of the outdoor participants were backups and rookies. There were a few veteran players at positions where they just needed enough bodies to actually run practice, or for guys who are essential to special teams. It was good to see the extra work that special teams got during this minicamp.

Think so far what I’ve seen in the offseason practices is encouraging. Not just fan hope encouraging. Not just coach speak encouraging. Actual young players who look like they can make a good 2012 team better.

The Dead Zone Texans blog posts.

Most of my recent posts have been things that I’ve observed at camp. More figuring out what is real within the hype. Because of that, I haven’t had too many non-news analysis posts. I have some in the mix coming up.

My main motivation for this blog is to make it a good place for fans, and I think of you when I write stuff. Ultimately the best way to find out what fans want to read is to ask them. What sorts of topics would you like me to focus on, especially during this dead zone?

Here’s a couple of to-do’s I am giving for you while I put together some blog posts I think you will like:

1. Texans Fan Road Trips. I’m planning on posting road trip plans for traveling Texans fans again this season. That series of blog posts the last couple of years have been very popular. And it is always great to hear of fans having a good time. If you are thinking of going on a trip, please read this fan travel blog post from April.

I am pointing this out now because there’s been a number of airfare sales recently, and if you are thinking of doing a trip, now is the time to plan them to get the optimal time to fly. Last year it seemed that entire SWA planes were filled with Texans fans going to games.

2. Bum Phillips Opera. If you have been thinking about supporting this opera that celebrates Bum Phillips’ life, now is the time. They are going to have a hard time meeting their June 30th goal in order to qualify for additional grants. So far there are 29 supporters, 16 of them from Texas. We can do better. Please consider making a tax deductible donation. You can receive various perks for different donation levels, including a number of autographed items from Bum.

Do you have business? You can put the donation under your business name as it does not need to match the billing address. If your business makes a donation, I will highlight it the best I can.

Here’s the Bum Phillips Opera donation link + more info about the opera. It takes 5 minutes. Look on right side of the page, click on “Donate To This Project.” Done. I am thinking that there are more than 29 people who walk this earth who want to show appreciation to Bum.

When will Ed Reed be back? And will he be able to be back at a high level at his age and injury history?

I’m not sure that Ed Reed knows the answer to those questions but he seems to have an abundance of confidence in his ability to contribute. Here’s the essential information relevant to his current status:

When will he be back?

He says right now he doesn’t know and will have a better sense of it come training camp. (Starts at end of July):

(on potentially playing in the first game of the season) “Like I said, we’re going to keep working out this offseason. Once training camp comes I’ll have a better bead on it, as far as my progress. Right now, I can tell you, it’s going well; going really good. No setbacks. I’m actually just coming from working out. As you can see, I’m a little fatigued from them getting the best of me. You know, that’s part of it. It’s looking really good right now.”

(on if he’ll be disappointed if he’s not ready to play in Week 1) “Like I said, we’re going to continue to work out. No disappointments because rehab is a process. I’m going to keep working out. Come training camp, like I said, I’ll have a better bead on it, a better feel for it. Right now, it’s still offseason and everybody’s working out.”

(on how this latest hip injury is different from the one he had a couple years ago) “Aw, man, the one a couple years ago, he had to take a piece of my IT band. I had to have reconstructive surgery. I had to have some bone spurs shaved down. This was a minor procedure. I definitely feel a lot different than I felt last time. Like I said, it’s minor to the one I had in 2010, so the recovery is going a lot different. Being that I had surgery then, same surgery, I think the body is more receptive to it. I’m doing a lot of things differently than I was then; eating differently. When I stayed out in Vail, I had a chef out there who really helped me out, according to my diet. That helps to recover a lot better. Like I said, I’m a lot stronger. If you ask my trainers, if you ask my doctor, they can’t believe where I’m at right now. But it’s still a process and regardless, we’re going to be smart through it because at the end of the day the smartest thing to do is to be ready when it really counts; that’s the latter part of the season, when you’re trying to make that run or you’re making that run to the playoffs and on to the Super Bowl in New York.”

(on if he had to have any bones shaved down during his surgery) “No. Not at all.”

So, we don’t know the return date from the repair of his “slight tear of the labrum,” but what we learned Tuesday is that at least it isn’t like the 2010 surgery.

What is his current status of his fitness?

During offseason practices, a number of players recovering from injuries both veteran and not, work out on a side field during part of practice. Mostly running/agility sorts of drills working with Texans staffers. As Kubiak noted, wide receiver DeVier Posey joined that group for the first time Tuesday:

“I was impressed today. I watched from afar while he was doing his work over there, but I watched him run and watched him work. Like I told him, hopefully he makes a real tough decision on us as we get towards camp and those PUP decisions and that type of stuff. Hopefully it’s going to be a very, very tough one, but he’s doing his job. He’s working hard.”

Reed wasn’t part of that group but rather did his work inside Reliant Stadium. The larger than normal group of media who were there to see Reed had to wait after practice until he was through with his workout.

I was curious to how far along he was with his rehabilitation, and asked him about it:

(on where he is at in his rehabilitation) “Week 7 tomorrow.”

(on what sorts of things he is doing in his rehabilitation) “Rehabbing and working out now.”

I found these answers interesting. He went on and on, and into all sorts of details on just about everything else, but when I asked his specifically what he was currently doing for his rehabilitation, he gave me 8 words.

Maybe he didn’t want to share where he was at right now. Or maybe he was hot and tired (86 degrees on the practice field at that time), and just wanted to the presser to be done.

Bum Phillips Opera Update:

Had he lived, Vince Lombardi would have been 100 years old this week. They made a play about his life.

Bum Phillips is 89. If you’ve read his book, you would know he’s lived a fantastic, improbable life.

As I wrote about the other day, a group of Texans are putting together an opera about Bum Phillip’s life and are raising funds to have it staged in New York City in March of 2014. With hope that it can go to Houston and other places after that.

Bum thinks it is “a hoot” that someone inspired by his life wants to put together an opera about him. But in order to make this happen, it needs to be partially funded by June 30th in order to get additional matching grants.

Here’s the link to the Bum Phillips Opera Fundraiser. Please consider giving what you can. There are perks offered for giving, including a few new ones.

Have a business that would like to support this? From what I understand, you can give any name as the supporter, which doesn’t need to match the billing information.

Here’s the latest update on the fundraising as of Wednesday morning: 22 supporters, $2475 raised, 12% of $20,000 goal, 18 fundraising days left.

If we all pitch in together, this goal should be easy. But getting people to take time is a little harder, and asking for money is the pits. I don’t know how politicians and various fundraiser types do it.

Gary Kubiak talking to team after OTAs. (Photo courtesy of EdMatchettePhotography.com)

Texans organized team activities (OTAs) are done. Next week starts minicamp which will focus on the younger players and not vets. So what do we know, what do we still want to know?

I went to every day of OTAs, so I want to give you all the information that can be known about the last three weeks:

Surprise Surgeries. Every year, at the start of the Texans off-season, it takes a bit of time for the media to learn who had what surgery after the season. We either learn about them or the extent of the surgery right before OTAs or after they been going on for a while. Not the medias fault…the Texans just don’t volunteer a lot of that information.

Ones we knew about pre-OTAs? LB Brooks Reed (groin surgery), LB Darryl Sharpton (hip surgery), S Ed Reed (hip surgery), RT Derek Newton (knee surgery). Brooks Reed and Sharpton are back full strength, no one knows when Ed Reed and Newton will be ready to go. Newton is said to be targeted for training camp. Originally, there was discussion of Ed Reed returning during the middle of training camp, and now noises about maybe first week of season, maybe later, whatever, ayyyyyy!

Probably the best Ed Reed discussion on his return is in this SiriusXM NFL Radio interview. He explains that he was out so long with the last hip surgery because it was a business decision to put him on the PUP list.

And who knows, maybe there are other things players got fixed up over the off-season that we don’t know about but haven’t kept them off the field.

Practice Injuries. RB Arian Foster has a strained calf. LT Duane Brown had a ankle bone spur shaved. Both players are expected to be back for training camp. RT Brennan Williams missed most of OTAs with a knee injury. Originally it was thought he’d be back for last week of OTAs, but now it sounds more like training camp at the end of July. Right now, these are not panic in the streets injuries because it is early June.

Out of these injuries, the greatest concern to Gary Kubiak at this time is right tackle. His Thursday summary of OTA pretty much says where the Texans are right now:

“I think it was a good 10 days. Today we were just teaching and doing some situational stuff. I think the biggest thing is we threw some young players in some very tough positions. You look at (S D.J.) Swearinger and where he got thrown into right away because of (S) Ed (Reed) not being here. Then you look at us taking (WR DeAndre) Hopkins, our number one, so I think we’ve come a long way as a team. Instead of it taking us two weeks to go through that in camp, I think those guys are much more advanced. Obviously there are some concerns. Up front, the right tackle has got me concerned right now. Guys have missed a lot of time, but I think the work has been good. We got out of this thing healthy. All these guys that have missed a little time will be back. We’ll finish up next week with just the young guys.”

In essense, the Texans are going to be depending a lot on young players, and the focus of minicamp next week is to work with these non-vets. As far as injuries go, the ones that give him the greatest concern are the ones at right tackle.

Offense.

Here’s my sum up of thoughts on this side of the ball after observing camp. Some of this is reporting, some of this is analysis, and when I’m speculating, I will tell you:

Quarterback. Matt Schuab is Schaub. Moving around fine, says he feels good, working with wide receivers and actually participating in OTAs this year which puts him ahead of where he was last year. TJ Yates and Case Keenum know the offense better than they did last year. Stephen McGee has some moments, is continuing to learn the offense.

I am not buying hype that Keenum is displacing Yates blah blah blah. I think a lot of that is wishful thinking by UH fans combined with the fact that the quarterback that Gary Kubiak is asked about the most is Keenum. Lots of questions about a specific player mean a lot of quotes.

I will say Kubiak is high on Keenum, and his ability to learn the offense, minimize turnovers, and his improvement since last year. I think both Yates and Keenum need to have better preseason game showings than last year. Yes, they are working with backups on the field, but the gold standard for backup quarterback preseason performances was Sage Rosenfels. He had decent preseason showings, and in spot duty during the regular season usually played competent enough to win games (assuming that the defense could hold, which was a big assumption back then).

Rosenfels’ preseason performances were not that far apart from Schaub’s, and actually in Schaub’s first year with the Texans, Rosenfels was better.

I am not suggesting that the preseason really matters. But you couldn’t have looked at last year’s Texans preseason games and felt any confidence at all that the offense could be maintained if Schaub went down for any length of time. I am also pointing it out because OTA discussions of Keenum’s progress should come from the perspective that he wasn’t particularly great last year. Just learning the offense. To be expected.

Wide Receivers. This is the position I watched the most closely last year and this year because of uncertainty at the spot and the incorporation of so many new players. Here’s my summary:

1. Last year I did not buy into the hype of any of the non-AJ wide receivers. Kevin Walter looked more consistent than the new guys. The inexperienced WRs all had very up and down days, and I think some folks got overly down on DeVier Posey, overly up on Lestar Jean and Keshawn Martin. They all looked inconsistent to me. It also did not help that Schaub didn’t work with them during OTAs because he was still rehabbing an injured foot.

2. I do think Jean and Martin look more consistent this year. I do not think that is hype. Whether that translates on the field, I do not know.

3. DeAndre Hopkins is different than every WR the Texans have acquired post-AJ. Just very impressive. Great, great hands. Very physical. He isn’t getting a ton of targets but makes the most of them. I don’t think the talk about him is hype.

He didn’t get a ton of OTA/Twitter talk during the last part of OTAs because he was working with the first team, working against 1st team defense, isn’t getting a ton of targets because healthy Jonathan Joseph was covering him as consistently as a Jags tarp. If you are Matt Schaub, and you have a choice of throwing it to Andre Johnson covered by Kareem Jackson and DeAndre Hopkins covered by a healthy JJo, what do you do?

I am not sure of how many targets Hopkins will receive in the regular season because few wide receivers excel their first year, no matter what their gifts, but Hopkins appears to be exactly as advertised. Strikes me as a bright guy, too. (Sometimes you interview guys, and it is a bit like looking into the eyes of a cow. Texans got rid of a lot of those guys).

4. Alan Bonner is getting a lot of targets from backup QBs/against backup corners. This is why you have been hearing about him a lot. He is making the most of those targets, has shown good body awareness. When he runs routes, looks like he’s on rails. He’s intriguing, but don’t know how it will translate to real man football. He’s 5’10” but sturdily built.

5. Overall the group of WRs look like they belong. In shorts. There isn’t a Trindon Holliday first year guy out there looking out of place. For a lot of the young wide receivers, it is going to be a matter of how they can participate on special teams and whether they come into real training camp prepared for the real heat, and knowing the playbook.

6. Oh, and not to ignore The Man, but Andre Johnson looks like AJ. They rest a lot of the vets throughout offseason practices, but he looked great when he played. Nice to see that he wasn’t one of the surprise surgery guys (as far as we know). And in case you missed it, Gary Kubiak said that Andre Johnson’s role in the offense which was significant in 2012, isn’t going to diminish.

Running Back. With Foster missing part of OTAs, Ben Tate has had a lot of work with the first team.

It is Tate’s contract year, and typically Gary Kubiak gives opportunities for players in their contract year to shine. He obviously needs to stay healthy.

As for the 3rd running back spot, I think it is a wide open competition and will have a lot to do with who they think can help on special teams, protect the quarterback. And who comes out of camp trustily healthy, in good condition. They are all quality runners.

As total speculation, the injury to Foster might tilt the scales a bit toward Cierre Wood. He is a more typical Texans size (5’11” 205), than Deji Karim (5’8″ 209), Dennis Johnson (5’7″ 193), Ray Graham (5’9″ 193). I’m guessing if you have any concerns at all that your RB1 might miss any time, then I’d think you’d want your RB3 to be more of a typical workhorse-shaped guy instead of a situational back. They might have that point of view even if they don’t have concerns about Foster. If you think Tate may be gone next year, who would you want to project into the #2 RB role.

Fantasy Football and Running Backs. I’ve been asked a bunch from fantasy football types about my opinion on Foster. My thoughts:

1. Despite various nicks in the off-season, he has missed only a few games.

2. I know the concern that comes from predicting injuries in backs that get a lot of touches. That being said, I wouldn’t want to bet against Arian Foster. Prior to his calf injury in OTAs, he looked in very good condition, very fluid in his running.

3. Kubiak trusts Foster. Trusts him in difficult situations. In addition, in the red zone, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison has said that he prefers to run as a way to impose the will of the offensive line. That teams may know it is coming, but it doesn’t matter because Foster will pick his way in for a touchdown.

4. The offense will likely run a lot this year. Based on what I know now, I think the defense will continue to play well, and in those circumstances, Kubiak will take less risks on offense because he doesn’t need to. The Texans will use a combination of run and passes to amass an early lead, and then go run heavy in second half of games to put teams away. This relates to something that Chase Stewart in his very good Football Perspective blog refers to a lot as “Game Scripts.”

Gary Kubiak prefers run/pass balance in his offense. But sometimes the way a game unfolds, takes him away from what his ideal preference is for better or worse. People who think that the Texans are a “run first” team, likely follow the Texans only in the last couple of years and mostly from a fantasy football perspective.

In 2010, a lot of fantasy players got upset when the Texans stopped running Arian Foster in the second half of games when the games got out of hand, and the Texans were forced to throw a lot. On the other hand, his YPC were pretty sporty because there were few situations where he was running during obvious running situations. That defense in 2010 was so bad that no lead was safe.

In 2011, Foster had many tougher carries because he was relied a lot on due to the injuries to Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. In 2012, with as many early leads as the Texans had, Foster ran in many obvious running situations. The Texans are not afraid to run against unfavorable fronts because 1. They think they can do it if their offensive line is working well together: 2. They think that it wears defenses down; 3. It creates opportunities in the play action game as teams start overplaying the run.

All of those game contextual things have nothing to do with Foster’s innate ability and rather him dealing with different game situations.

5. In sum, all running backs who get a lot of carries have injury risk because of the nature of a position that gets hit a lot. I’d be more concerned about the calf sprain if it happened closer to the season. They will be conservative in bringing Foster back because they typically are, and will aim towards having him ready for the season.

Ideally, I think the Texans would like to split carries more than last year between Foster and Tate, but last year’s injury to Tate precluded that.

6. Too many fantasy football analysts are ignoring that in 2013, the running backs will be working with a non-hybrid, true fullback. Last year, James Casey provided some offensive flexibility as a FB/TE/WR, but sometimes the ability to do many things means you don’t do one thing really well. The Texans running game over the last three years has worked the best when a true fullback was working with it.

7. And as a bringing fantasy football back into real football comment, I would suggest that those people who think that an injury to Foster would doom the Texans chances in 2013, ignore the influence that Rick Dennison has on the offense. He’s coached a lot of very effective running games in his career, including many “no-name” runners. That being said, Foster is a special runner that Kubiak trusts to do a lot of things.

Offensive Line.

Tackle. As I mentioned before, Gary Kubiak has concerned about the right tackle position because both Derek Newton and Brennan Williams have not been able to be a part of the competition for that spot due to injuries. Ryan Harris has been taking on that role in their absence. The number of tackles on the roster who can even compete for that spot are limited.

Andrew Gardner got spot duty last year at RT. Nick Mondek is in his second year. David Quessenberry was a lower round draft pick.

The trouble with injuries to promising players is that uncertainty means that you have to carry more people on the regular season roster at that position that you might want to. And you don’t want to have to carry guys who aren’t healthy and aren’t currently contributing. It is still very early, but this is something to watch as camp starts in the end of July. Nobody wants the Texans offensive line to be a bit of an adventure this year like it was last year except for the team’s opponents.

Guard. All the hype that Brandon Brooks has received during OTAs is real. Has been working with the ones all OTAs. Last year, he struggled some in the heat, and came into camp heavier than what the Texans like to see in their offensive linemen.

This year he looks to be in beastly condition. They’ve only been working in shorts, so it makes it hard to evaluate how much he will be able to move defenders, but Kubiak has said good things, and he certainly looks like the first-guy-off-the-bus impressive.

Tight Ends. The Texans appear to have a tight end cloning machine. Barring injuries, I expect the tight end position to be their normal, reliable selves. Nothing particularly flashy, but consistently good. Matt Schaub to Owen Daniels looks same as it always has. Garrett Graham was the sneaky good TE in last year’s offense, and his injury at the end of last year was something that hurt the Texans more than most national folks recognized. Low round pick rookie, Ryan Griffin has looked to be a reliable target. Daniels said good things about him as a tall target, and as a rookie who knows good questions to ask.

Defense.

Often the focus of talk about the defense in OTAs focuses on the new guys. I will take a brief moment to say that the returning guys all look like they are in dominating form. And the idea that J.J. Watt played with torn elbow ligaments last year, and had that sort of season, makes you want the 2013 season to start already. See e.g. this Grantland post by Robert Mays.

Defensive Line. The biggest question this year is whether players not named J.J. Watt will provide more defensive pressure. Please check out this article in Cold Hard Football Facts which focuses on the late Deacon Jones, but happens to also put him in context of more modern pass rushers like Watt. Watt obtained 46.6% of all the Texans sacks. Though to be fair to the other defenders, it sometimes seemed like Watt shut down plays so quickly last year, he bogarted other players’ opportunities before the plays even had much time to develop. His performance last year is so unlike anything I’ve ever witnessed in the NFL, and I dearly hope to see many Watt years of the same…for the Texans.

Now that the training wheels of Shaun Cody are gone at DT, will Earl Mitchell with a greater part of the rotation be able to have a break out year? That likely isn’t going to be a question that can be answered until real games start. Just in shorts, he looks to be in terrific condition, but he did last year too.

Linebackers. In Thursday’s quotes, Kubiak said this about the progress of rookies Trevardo Williams and Sam Montgomery:

“I think it’s been good. I think Trevardo is a little bit ahead of (Montgomery) just from the standpoint of playing the position, the true position. Sam is trying to go from hand down to standing up, so that’s different for him. The talent is there for both of them.”

I don’t think that should be interpreted as any sort of disappointment in Montgomery but rather just reflecting their relative starting points. From the beginning of OTAs to the end, you can see a lot of progress in Montgomery. He might have made the most progress of any of the players from start to finish of OTAs.

In addition, Montgomery’s game is more based on strength not coverage. So it may be that his football skills don’t shine more until they get into more real game situations other than just practicing in shorts.

I think a true analysis of the linebackers can’t happen until much further in the off-season. Brian Cushing has been rehabbing his knee on a side field. Looks very fit, agile. Ultimately, the lineup of the best guys on the field may end up being an evolving one based on getting the best guys on the field who are healthy.

Darryl Sharpton was the surprise of OTAs. At first it sounded like he wouldn’t be back from his off-season surgery in time for OTAs, but he was there day one and looking fit at that position.

Secondary. The corners look solid. The safeties have been getting a lot of work in Ed Reed’s absence, and it will be hard to tell how they will be production-wise until the season starts. Real football is when you see if safeties get exposed.

Rookie D.J. Swearinger looks the part–confident, making plays, physically in great condition. Hard position for a rookie because young players make mistakes. That is one of those positions where the mistakes tend to be more obvious to fans, and more punitive to performance.

And if you are asking, my view on the Ed Reed thing remains the same. Even before his injury and surgery were made public, he has always been a risk/reward lagniappe. I think this defense can be very, very good without him. He wasn’t coming to Texas to be the savior of the team. But perhaps he could become a special part of this defense.

I know that many think that the loss of Glover Quin was a mistake. I’m guessing that they didn’t want to commit to him long term at the price he wanted and preferred to get his replacement in the draft. In Pro Football Focus comparative stats, Quin ranked 40th relative to other safeties. Worth noting that he had a ton of quality snaps that the Texans will need to replace with 1045.

Think of this. The 2012 Texans defense, even without Cushing for most of the year, and with a few challenging games that brought down their numbers, still ended up the year ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency by Football Outsiders. Sometimes it didn’t feel that way, but in some losses it was the offense and the special teams that made it difficult on the team.

The Texans defense is an extremely young defense, Ed Reed notwithstanding. To be the 3rd most efficient defense with that much youth has to be something that is encouraging to fans for the future.

The good news out of OTAs is that Shane Lechler’s punts are huge. Assuming health, he will be a difference maker in punting situations. Booming, stratospheric, hard to return.

The uncertain news out of OTAs involves kickoff returns coverage which was abysmal last year. Kubiak has said good things about the actual kickoffs, but we won’t know how the return teams do until we see it. No real tackling in OTAs. He seems to believe that increased team speed should help, and I can’t disagree with that premise. I do think that team speed other than Bryan Braman hurt special teams coverage/blocking last year. It is an open question whether this year the Texans have acquired enough real speed to be a difference maker against teams who have a ton of it on special teams.

The unnerving, uncertain news out of OTAs involves second-year field goal kicker Randy Bullock. Last year, I never saw anything that made me think he was the kicker of the future, and he got shelved due to injury before the season started. This year in limited time, I haven’t seen anything particularly impressing either. I’ve been wanting to be impressed. It hasn’t happened at any point. (To be fair, others may disagree with this eyeball view. Humans, they often see things differently).

During OTAs, most of the field goal kicking isn’t done in front of the team. They have a portable overly-narrow field goal they wheel out to help practice with a narrow target on a different field than where most of the team is working. It’s the same concept as putting into a smaller cup–when you start putting into a normal sized cup it feels huge.

The last two days of OTAs, during the situational football focus that was the last week of camp, Bullock did kicks in front of team and assembled media. Between 40-49 is supposed to be nearly automatic for a modern NFL kicker. Bullock was not automatic.

Yes, it is early. But it is never too early to be concerned that your inexperienced kicker isn’t making kicks he is supposed to make for a team that has realistically high expectations. Here’s Kubiak talking about the progress of the special teams as a whole:

“Well I think there are a couple of things going on with our special teams. First off, we’ve got a lot of young guys that can run. That is where your special teams come from. I think getting (special teams coordinator) Joe (Marciano) Lig (special teams assistant Bob Ligashesky) to come in here and help him has really been a big help for Joe from a teaching process and a load standpoint. I think that’s been very good. I think we’ve got a chance. We’ve got a heck of a punter. I think we have a lot of confidence in him. We’ve got a young kicker that has got to come a long way. I think the youth and the fact that we can run gives us a chance to improve.” (My emphasis)

Not exactly a Kubiak vote of confidence.

Weather. The most difficult part of OTAs for rookies is the heat and humidity that is Houston. This was probably the coolest OTAs the Texans have ever had with a relatively temperate May, and wind and clouds on a number of days. The last day may have been unofficially the hottest with my car temp reading 91 at the start of practice. Still not the worst I’ve felt.

My unofficial method of figuring out the hottest days is a TMI note: If it feels hot enough where you think you should be wearing astronaut diapers to deal with the sweating, that is a truly hot Texans practice day. There were no astronaut diaper days during these OTAs.

As the summer progresses, the Texans tend to move morning practice earlier in the day, and then during training camp, the more walk thru portion of camp is done inside the practice bubble. They don’t do morning work inside the AC’d practice bubble because Kubiak doesn’t like working on the turf, and there is just not as much room.

Conclusion. OTAs are guys doing practice in shorts. There’s limited information you can know, and most of it is just finding out what guys did in the offseason as far as getting into better shape or recovering from surgeries.

If you have any specific questions about specific players or want further explanation of anything I wrote, please leave them in the comments.

]]>https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/texans-2013-otas-in-review/feed/0Bum Phillips’ life as an opera? Fans can make this happenhttps://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/bum-phillips-life-as-an-opera/
https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/bum-phillips-life-as-an-opera/#respondThu, 06 Jun 2013 14:08:55 +0000http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/?p=2753

The world premiere of the opera is scheduled for March 2014 in New York City. The people putting it together are from Texas, and want to find a partner in Houston to get it here as well. (Let me know if you are someone who can make this happen).

But first things first.

To produce this show, they need to raise $20,000 by the end of the month. With this seed money, it makes them eligible for additional grants. They’ve raised $950 so far.

Here’s the link to donate money to the Bum Phillips Opera. The way that the USA Projects website works is you don’t pay unless it is funded by the deadline. All the proceeds go to the production with no fees taken out. And the donation is tax deductible. Very easy site to use.

In addition, with various donations, you get gifts back.

For a small donation, you get listed in the program as a production supporter. Yes you, football fan, a supporter of a NYC opera premiere.

I just think it would be a spectacular world we live in if there were an opera about Bum. Few people get operas about them. If we work together, we can make this happen.

The people who put this opera together visited with Bum at his ranch and got his approval. It’s a way to get more awareness of his charities which he discusses some in his book.

Reportedly his original response was a very Bum quote, “Don’t they know I can’t sing?”

So who is in? Please spread the word about the fundraiser to those you think might be interested.

Update: Thursday Today at OTA’s all the questions were asked that I wanted to ask. So I asked Coach Kubiak his thoughts about the opera:

(on if he has heard that there will be an opera based on the life of Bum Phillips) “Really? Good. That’s awesome. That’s awesome. What did Coach think about it? [‘Coach thinks it’s great, although he says he can’t sing.’] Yeah, I can’t comment on that. I don’t know, but the Coach is a good friend. If they’re going to do one on somebody, they couldn’t do one on anybody better. I know that.”

I think that is a great summary.

]]>https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/bum-phillips-life-as-an-opera/feed/0Gary Kubiak thinks too much Andre Johnson is just righthttps://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/05/gary-kubiak-thinks-too-much-andre-johnson-is-just-right/
https://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/05/gary-kubiak-thinks-too-much-andre-johnson-is-just-right/#respondFri, 31 May 2013 15:52:26 +0000http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/?p=2741Before the draft, there was the point of view expressed that Andre Johnson was too much of a percentage of the Texans passing offense. So instead of just fans, fantasy football types and media debating this subject, I decided to go straight to the source, and asked Gary Kubiak about this after Thursday’s organized team activity (OTAs) session.

Kubiak’s response? “Tell them a big percentage is going to go through him again.”

I talked about this some on Twitter, so I figure I’ll put all these thoughts together, plus people’s responses in a Storify on the subject: