BSP chief Mayawati eyes bigger role in national politics with move to divide Uttar Pradesh

BSP chief Mayawati eyes bigger role in national politics with move to divide Uttar Pradesh

As UP assembly passed a resolution in favour of division of the state, here is a look at the vote bank politics of this northern state of India.

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Headlines Today Bureau

November 22, 2011

UPDATED: November 22, 2011 15:27 IST

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati believes and often claims that she is cut out for the nation's top job. Is dividing UP her first concrete move to seek a role beyond running a state?

Reorganising UP might be long overdue, but Mayawati has got her mathematics right. Her core Dalit vote remains intact in spite of the move.

Supporting the BSP government move, former Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Amar Singh said: "Division of UP will be in favour of people. Why SP is against it is beyond my understanding. Even Ram Manohar Lohia was also in favour of small states. I thank Mayawati for this move."

By sounding the division bell, Mayawati has won herself some fans in and even outside the state.

Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS) chief K. Chandrasekhar Rao, who has been heading a campaign for a separate Telangana state, said: "I appreciate and welcome the decision of Mayawati to divide UP. She also spoke in favour of Telangana so we are thankful to her."

Analysts say in UP where the party and the government are virtually the same, the proposal means that Mayawati has set her eyes beyond the state. Helping her along is the Congress's ham-handed handling of the Telangana issue, which is further fuelling the demand for smaller states.

Maya's vote bankThe Third Front might have been routed in the general elections in 2009, but Mayawati's dream of prime ministership is still alive. She would evidently benefit most as her vote-bank, which is no longer just restricted to Dalits but also includes upper caste Brahmins, would be spread in all four states.

Dalits are evenly spread throughout the state with 18.17 per cent presence in western UP or Paschim Pradesh, 21.15 per cent in eastern UP or Purvanchal, 25.14 per cent in Bundelkhand region and 26.1 per cent in central UP or Awadh Pradesh.

SP may suffer post-divisionPerhaps the one party that would suffer the most due to this decision would be the SP, an archrival of the BSP in the state. Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's major seat is Etawah, which is in eastern districts. However, in the new proposed states, he would not have one major area where his vote bank would be concentrated.

The SP's around 10 to 12 per cent core Yadav vote is not uniform, with one great chunk in the east and one in the Etawah-Mainpuri-Etah belt. That means the party's base would split. This could mean other backward castes and even Muslims ignoring a depleted SP.

Big challenge for CongressThe Congress, in particular, is in a bind. As the principal ruling party at the Centre, it cannot readily support the UP demand without further queering the pitch in Andhra Pradesh, where the agitation for a separate Telangana state has virtually paralysed the administration.

On the other hand, doing well in the UP elections is equally important since it could be the launch pad for Congress heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi's move to a larger role at the national level.