...in my view, the most significant aspect, which we have not yet experienced out of the West Bank, will involve the capability to launch steep-trajectory munitions at Israeli towns in the Judea and Samaria sector as well as at Israeli cities in the inner plain, the coastal plane and northern Samaria.

Tamas (Steep-Trajectory) instead of Hamas During the anticipated confrontation in the West Bank, Palestinian steep-trajectory fire will replace suicide bombers as the preferred method for attacking Israel's homefront. Col. (Res.) Atai Shelach addresses the challenges facing the IDF in this particular theater

Tamas (Steep-Trajectory) instead of Hamas According to recent indications, the next 'round' of the combat between Israel and Palestinian terrorists will take place on the West Bank  its just a matter of time. All of the signs have been surfacing in the recent months: a continuous stagnation as far as political negotiations are concerned; the acceptance of the Palestinian Authority as an observer state in the UN; the perceived 'weakness' of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen); the previous round of combat in the Gaza Strip (Operation Pillar of Defense); and the power struggles within the PA, along with the repeated attempts to achieve a reconciliation between Hamas and the PLO.

In recent months, incidents involving stone throwing have become more frequent in the various sectors. The "Arab Spring" (or "Arab Winter", as some Israeli politicians refer to it) sweeping the Middle East has also 'charged' the streets of the West Bank towns with renewed negative energy. The last 'round' of the confrontation, which broke out in the year 2000, progressed from street demonstrations to violent demonstrations with firearms present, shooting and other attacks along the routes and insertion of suicide bombers into Israel's homefrontl. The culmination of that confrontation round occurred in March 2002, with the suicide attack at the Park Hotel in Netanya, followed by the IDF's launch of operation Defensive Wall.

After that operation, two significant processes shaped the reality that has existed until recently. The first process involved the construction of the 'seam line' fence system, which made the insertion of terrorists into Israels homefront much more difficult and allowed the IDF to invest its efforts and resources in a manner that improved their operational effectiveness. The other process, executed with determination and Sisyphean tenacity, was the 'lawn mowing' project (a term coined by the commander of the Judea and Samaria sector at the time, Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot). Over a period of more than four years, hundreds and possibly thousands of Hamas and PLO operatives were arrested, thereby preventing terrorism from raising its ugly head.

It should be noted that other processes helped keep the flames in check on the West Bank as far as the over-all confrontation was concerned. These processes included such relief measures as allowing commercial activity and opening the routes between West Bank towns, known as 'the lifting of the barriers'.

What Awaits Around the Corner?

As in many other instances in life, there is no place for a vacuum, and where the wagon has been bogged down (in the absence of political negotiations or any other moves), the market forces begin to emerge: the streets are no longer calm, various processes are under way and the ground begins to rustle. Judging by the present state of affairs, the seeds of the next round are already here and old confrontation patterns are re-emerging daily. So, what awaits us in the next 'round' and what should we prepare for?

Firstly, what once was will never be again. In this writer's estimate, this time around, the streets will be much more determined and operate with more 'civil' symptoms but much more actively, as learned from the 'brethren' in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Libya. The demonstrations may include firearms as well, but in the era of Facebook and the other social networks, it is easy to incite and inflame, and much easier to transmit the images of the struggle to the entire world, with particular emphasis on the Muslim world.

At the same time as the processes described above, armed conflicts will take place just as in the past. However, in my view, the most significant aspect, which we have not yet experienced out of the West Bank, will involve the capability to launch steep-trajectory munitions at Israeli towns in the Judea and Samaria sector as well as at Israeli cities in the inner plain, the coastal plane and northern Samaria.

As I stated, life in general and terrorism in particular have no place for a vacuum, and where one succeeds the other will promptly emulate him. The terrorist organizations on the West Bank have had sufficient time to prepare and learn from their 'brethren' in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon how to deploy professionally for the launching of steep trajectory munitions into Israel.

Whereas the 'seam line' is up and even improving, the terrorist organizations will be hard put to bring suicide bombers into Israels homefront. Yet even so, they may eventually succeed. In this writer's estimate, the next round of the confrontation will include intensive and extended civilian demonstrations in all West Bank towns, including marches and demonstrations focusing on the struggle against the border fence system and the 'seam line', along with shooting attacks and intrusions into towns, as we experienced in the past. The primary challenge, however, will be dealing with the steep trajectory fire, which would mean (in the absence of any other alternative), entering the towns of the West Bank once again, in order to once again destroy the infrastructure supporting this fire, along with the explosives laboratories we remember so well from the previous round.

A New Toolbox

The IDF, Border Police and Israel Police, who regularly play major and dominant roles in this old-new conflict, will be required to adopt a new 'toolbox' for the new confrontation. The first task will be to understand and distinguish how to cope with the civilian demonstrations and how to win, from the very first moment, in the battle of perceptions. In my view, this is the first commandment. Additionally, an incremental set of tools should be developed in order to deal with massive demonstrations against the 'seam line'. The Palestinians regard the struggle against the fence as their 'flagship project' whose degree of legitimacy is very high. We should bear in mind how surprised we were by the massive marches from Lebanon and Syria, and how long it took us to redeploy our forces and respond properly and intelligently, while losing significant legitimacy and points in the struggle for local and international perception.

As I stated previously, the crown jewel of the next 'round' will involve the preparations for dealing with the steep trajectory munitions infrastructure on the West Bank and the consolidation of a comprehensive concept for all of the aspects of this problem.

In many ways, we would not be able to conduct the struggle against the steep trajectory munitions on the West Bank as we conducted it opposite Gaza and Lebanon, owing to operational and humanitarian limitations which would necessitate operational activities on different levels. In other words - land operations rather than air strikes and more 'surgical' operations on the ground, rather than massive, continuous stand-off fire. At the same time, the intelligence gathering resources of the various intelligence agencies would have to be deployed in force. In this round, tamas (steep-trajectory fire) will replace Hamas as the preferred method for attacking the Israeli homefront.

The full article was published in the 12th issue of IsraelDefense Magazine.

Not my field of expertise, but the phrase “steep trajectory munitions” appears very often in this article and I had not heard it before. I googled it. I got about 4 hits and about 3 of them referred to Israel’s current vulnerability to these things.

I find that ... odd.

4
posted on 04/02/2013 5:09:25 AM PDT
by ClearCase_guy
(The ballot box is a sham. Nothing will change until after the war.)

when people change the true definition of words, words have no meaning and when words have no meaning nothing has meaning. ref the abuse of the word hero, the redefinition of marriage, "assault rifles"

This guy sounds like he loves to hear himself pontificate. Mortar barrages? OK. I’s a shakin’ in my boots. See that poof of smoke on that hill over there? Watch that spot and let’s bet whether the mortar shell falls to earth first, or the smart bomb obliterates the launch site first.

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.