National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy and University of Nevada, Reno

Robert J. Myers

Michigan State University

Jarrett Whistance

University of Missouri

Harry Baumes

US Department of Agriculture

This article provides a review of production, price, and trade data for fuel ethanol and biodiesel for the 2000-2016 period and projections for the 2016-2021 period. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) model is used for the projections. We find that the 2.5% US ethanol tariff could be eliminated with almost no consequences. For biodiesel, the situation is different. The 6.5% biodiesel tariff provides modest protection for US producers—US domestic production is estimated to be around 3.5% lower without the tariff, and domestic prices about 2.4% lower. A major decision about antidumping rules is likely forthcoming, in part, because US producers lost the domestic biodiesel subsidy in 2016. Proposed antidumping restrictions are in the range of 50-64% for Argentina and 41-68% for Indonesia. But this does not take into account the fact that by 2022, the Argentina export subsidies will be essentially zero. An antidumping suit is likely in near future.