97L Worth Watching in the Atlantic

Jeff Masters

In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. When 97L reaches the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, we will need to watch it, but the crystal ball is very murky on whether or not 97L might find favorable conditions for development then.

Invest 97L Is Gradually Organizing As It Approaches The Lesser Antilles; The Western Caribbean

Crown Weather

Invest 97-L Located 700 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles: A tropical wave, designated Invest 97-L, is located about 700 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles or along the 55 West Longitude line. Invest 97-L continues to race westward at a forward speed of 25 to 30 mph and this fast forward motion is inhibiting development. The latest satellite imagery indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97-L has increased since yesterday and has become a little more organized. Very slow development and organization is expected throughout this weekend into early next week due to the fast forward movement of Invest 97-L, even though all other environmental factors that contribute to tropical development are favorable. Invest 97-L is expected to slow down in forward speed by Tuesday and Wednesday as it reaches the western Caribbean and this is when we will really need to keep an eye on it for potential tropical development.

Turning to the latest model data – A majority of the model guidance forecasts that Invest 97-L will track from east to west across the Caribbean from Monday to Wednesday reaching the area of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night or Wednesday. Once Invest 97-L reaches the western Caribbean, the latest model guidance forecasts this system to slow down and start to spin up first into a low pressure system and then possibly into a tropical cyclone. It should be noted that the latest guidance has trended further south in its track across the Caribbean and this trend will be monitored.

The track model guidance are further north than the operational GFS, European and Canadian models and these models forecast a track across the northern Caribbean towards the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity guidance are all over the place with some of the members forecasting significant intensification while other members forecast little or no strengthening. Right now, I’m leaning towards the lower end of the intensity scale due to the quick forward movement of Invest 97-L which will limit development and intensification.

Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 97-L: From today through Monday, I do not expect Invest 97-L to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm due to its fast forward motion which will limit development and intensification. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development as Invest 97-L slows down in forward speed while it moves into the western Caribbean. This is when we will need to keep a close eye on potential development as it will be in a environment that consists of low wind shear, very warm ocean water temperatures and enhanced upper-level divergence (which will help Invest 97-L “breathe).

How fast Invest 97-L develops and intensifies in the western Caribbean remains to be seen and how strong it becomes will determine its ultimate course into the Gulf of Mexico. If Invest 97-L strengthens considerably in the western Caribbean like the HWRF model forecasts (the HWRF model forecasts Invest 97-L to become a hurricane near Belize around Wednesday), then it will be more likely to turn more to the west-northwest or northwest and move into the southern and western Gulf of Mexico and towards the Texas coast. On the other hand, if Invest 97-L doesn’t strengthen very much and remains weak, it will be most likely to remain on a mostly westward course and move into southern Mexico or Central America and never make it into the Gulf of Mexico.

At this point, those of you in the western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, should closely monitor the progress of Invest 97-L as it will be moving into the western Caribbean by Tuesday or Wednesday and may develop right on your doorstep.

For those of you in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico, at this point I think areas from Veracruz, Mexico to the lower and middle Texas coast need to keep an eye on Invest 97-L. Fortunately, there is plenty of time to keep an eye on this system as the earliest it may impact you will be sometime next weekend.

We have to take that INVEST 97L seriously, it has significantly developed over night. It is now in the Caribbean and several predictions bring it over or close to Belize. Presently there is not too much wind. There is still that ITCZ tropical air moving up northwards in front of it, which may carry it northwards or break it up, but the experts do not think so. That air and patches of cloud still coming down from Florida which brought over night rain is easing up, but there are still a few rain showers from it in any part of Belize.

5 day probability for development increased to 60% on 2 pm update from NHC.The thing is we won't have much warning at all if this system has rapid development on Monday-Tuesday. No way to know what is really in store, but being prepared tomorrow rather than waiting until September could be a good thing.There is some local thinking that an early hurricane can stir and cool the waters, making the later season less likely to spawn storms.

The long-range outlook for 97LIf 97L manages to organize even modestly over the next 2-3 days, we’ll have to keep a close eye on it. Model trends have been to route 97L on a fairly direct west to west-northwest path across the northern Caribbean, perhaps missing Hispaniola and most likely staying south of Cuba. Assuming that 97L forms a center of circulation and avoids major interaction with the high terrain of these islands, it will be well situated to strengthen--perhaps significantly--by late next week. A convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) has tended to suppress upward motion across the tropical Atlantic this week, but by later next week 97L may enter a region where the CCKW pattern favors upward motion. In addition, SSTs across the northwest Caribbean are very warm (29°C or 84°F, about 1°C above average), and there is a near-record amount of heat in the upper ocean to support rapid development if atmospheric conditions turn out to be favorable.

The SHIPS statistical intensity model is increasingly bullish on 97L, with the 18Z Saturday run of SHIPS bringing 97L to a Category 3 strength by Thursday. The last several runs of the HWRF model, which has shown increasing skill over the last several years, also project 97L to reach hurricane strength in the Caribbean (although the 12Z Saturday run appears to have had initialization problems, as noted by WU member Levi Cowan). The 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, two of the other more-trustworthy dynamical models, suggest that 97L could begin organizing just before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and then develop further in the Bay of Campeche by late next week. It is far too soon to assign any confidence to model projections in this time range, but the available guidance indicates that 97L is well worth watching. NHC gives 97L a 60% chance of development by Thursday, August 4.

Surface winds across the tropical Atlantic at 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. The surface circulation is less organized with Invest 97L (far left) with Invest 96L (right), as 96L features weaker winds overall but a more evident surface circulation.

A powerful tropical wave is currently centered about 225 miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave is moving rapidly to the west at about 25 mph. There is a distinct possibility this system develops into an organized tropical system as it progresses westward through the Caribbean.

While the system currently lacks a well-defined low-level circulation, there is widespread heavy shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. Heavy showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flooding are currently occurring from the northern Lesser Antilles westward into Hispaniola.

These thunderstorms will spread to Jamaica and Cuba on Monday before spreading into Central America by late on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this point, it appears as though the system will move over the Yucatan Peninsula at some point on Wednesday, possibly as a tropical depression or tropical storm.

This system will need to be closely monitored in the coming days.

Elsewhere, there are no active tropical systems, and none are expected to develop over the next 24-48 hours.

Atlantic tropical drought may end in Caribbean Sea this week

A tropical wave tracking through the Caribbean Sea this week will raise the potential for activity in the Atlantic Basin.

While the eastern Pacific Ocean has been busy, the Atlantic Basin hasn't had a tropical storm since Danielle roamed the Bay of Campeche in late June.

"Weak disturbances have been moving westward from Africa over the past couple of months," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. "Up to this point, there has been too much dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert for these systems to develop."

Dry air is common during June and July over much of the Atlantic.

The tropical wave will have obstacles to overcome on its path to end the tropical drought in the Atlantic Basin.

The tropical wave will race from the Leeward Islands and south of the Greater Antilles early this week, reaching the western Caribbean Sea by midweek. The potential for development will increase during this time.

The quick-forward speed of the wave is currently the main inhibitor against it organizing into a tropical depression.

Its forward speed should decline by midweek. Travis said the overall environment should become more conducive for the wave to organize into a tropical depression or storm.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic would acquire the name "Earl."

"Even if the wave fails to develop before reaching central America or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, it could then organize in the Bay of Campeche later in the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

Despite initially struggling to become a tropical depression, the wave will continue to spread heavy and gusty showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean Sea this week.

"The heaviest rain will target Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Sunday night before expanding into Jamaica on Monday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.

Localized flash flooding can result, especially in the higher terrain.

The downpours will shift to the northern Central American nations and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula during the middle and latter part of this week.

The flood risk, gusty winds and surf would increase if the wave becomes more organized and strengthens in the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If the system tracks to the Bay of Campeche, those in eastern mainland Mexico and South Texas could face impacts next weekend.

Despite the active start to this hurricane season, a lull in activity in July in not uncommon. Tropical activity typically ramps up from August to early September as the waters of the Atlantic Basin reach their warmest.

Invest 97L Is Likely A Tropical Storm & Will Impact Jamaica & The Cayman Islands From This Afternoon Into Tuesday As A Tropical Storm & Then The Yucatan Peninsula & Belize On Wednesday Night & Thursday As Possibly A Hurricane

Invest 97-L Located 350 Miles To The East-Southeast Of Kingston, Jamaica: Invest 97-L has become much better organized and in my opinion is already a tropical storm, even though the National Hurricane Center hasn’t initiated advisories on it. Satellite imagery indicates that there is deep thunderstorm activity occurring and in fact this convection has increased in coverage since last night. In addition, satellite loops indicate there is an apparent spin of the thunderstorm activity with bands of thunderstorm activity forming near the deep convection. Finally, satellite wind data indicates that there are 40 to 45 mph surface winds occurring within the deep thunderstorm activity. All of this evidence leads me to believe that this is already Tropical Storm Earl and I expect to see the National Hurricane Center upgrade it to a tropical storm at some point today.

For those of you on the island of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading across Jamaica sometime this afternoon or this evening and then reaching the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. These tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across Jamaica right through Tuesday before diminishing on Wednesday. Across the Cayman Islands, tropical storm conditions are expected throughout the day on Tuesday which could last into part of Wednesday before ending later Wednesday.

The latest model guidance consensus has shifted to the south in the overall forecast track of Invest 97-L. This means that while it is looking much less likely that there will be a Texas impact from this system, it looks very likely that Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, parts of Central America and parts of the east coast of Mexico will be impacted by this system. In fact, the intensity guidance is forecasting that Invest 97-L may be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize on Thursday. It should be noted and taken into consideration that the HWRF model, which did forecast the intensification of Invest 97-L, is forecasting that this system may be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane and impact the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night into Thursday.

Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 97-L: As I have already mentioned, it looks very likely that Invest 97-L is already a tropical storm and I fully anticipate the National Hurricane Center to initiate advisories on it sometime today. This means that Watches and Warnings will likely be issued as soon as midday for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as tropical storm conditions are likely to spread across Jamaica this afternoon or this evening and then the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

We are also going to have to really watch out for rapid intensification as the overall weather pattern and very favorable environmental conditions support rapid strengthening during Tuesday and Wednesday as this system tracks from near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to near the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize by Thursday. This means that we need to strongly consider that Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula may be impacted with hurricane conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Fortunately for the coast of Texas and the rest of the US Gulf Coast, a strong upper level ridge of high pressure across the southern United States should guide Invest 97-L on a west and west-northwest path towards Mexico and possibly Central America. It is looking less likely at this point that there will be a break in the ridge of high pressure, so the chance for this system to turn northwestward towards Texas is decreasing considerably.

Everyone across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the rest of the western Caribbean should be ready for tropical storm and even hurricane conditions.

As of Monday, 1 August, 2016 as at 6:00a.m. The National Meteorological Service and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) continue to monitor showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

The wave which is some 900 miles east of Belize is moving at 20-25 miles per hour and it is currently showing signs of strengthening. It has 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It is likely to continue strengthening and is expected to start influencing our area by late Tuesday /early Wed morning.

NEMO District Emergency Committees have been meeting and will continue their meeting today. The Belize District Coordinator has been attached to the San Pedro Emergency Committee. CEMO is preparing Shelters and making arrangements for the buses in the event of a NEMO organized evacuation. Public Officers are being placed on notice to be prepared for their emergency duties. NEMO warehouses continue to receive supplies.

NEMO continues to advise people on the cayes who wish to seek shelter on the mainland need to pay close attention to NEMO advisories. People living in areas that are prone to flood are asked to stay alert. The local authorities and residents are advised to clear drains likely to cause flooding.

All persons particularly people living on the cayes, in flood prone areas, fisher folks, and farmers are advised to monitor this tropical wave and to be prepared to take the necessary precautions.

GFS Model run initiated at 6:00 am Monday, August 01, 2016 , showing 850 mb 72 hours vorticity projection of Central Caribbean disturbance tracking westward. The center of the disturbance is undefined currently, but by Thursday morning (6:00am) it is forecast over the Gulf of Honduras just offshore northern Toledo-Stann Creek districts. Hence, even if the system does not mature into a hurricane it will bring extensive rainfall over the area. Worst scenario likely to be: local flash floods in the hilly terrain on Thursday and Friday, and local floods due to ponding over the coastal terrain….

The National Emergency Management Organization hereby informs that the strong, fast moving tropical wave approaching the central Caribbean is now much better organized. The system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm within the next six to twelve hours. The tropical wave is likely to continue to move in a westward direction at about 20 to 25 miles per hour. This places Belize in its path. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in Belize around late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the system crossing the mainland during Wednesday night. If the system remains a tropical storm we can expect winds within the range of 50 to 60 miles per hour. Rainfall estimates are expected to be between 4-6 inches.

NEMO advises the public to remain calm. Any further development will be shared in an update.

Evacuation planning is in place to receive people from the cayes. The National Executive Committee will meet tomorrow at 7 a.m. to review the situation and decide if there is a need for an evacuation. The Department of Transport has notified key Bus operators to be prepared to assist with an evacuation once the decision is taken. Boat operators met today with the San Pedro Emergency Committee and are standing by. CEMO is making preparations to receive and transport people from the cayes to Belmopan and further west if necessary. Shelters are being prepared but remain closed at this time.

NEMO hereby advises, people on the cayes who feel it safe to leave the islands to do so on their own as a precaution for their safety. If you live in a flood prone area and along the coast you are strongly advised to move early. Residents and local authorities within their means, are strongly encouraged to clear drains to reduce the risk of flooding, to trim trees etc., and to secure their families and homes.

NEMO is activated countrywide. Stay alert and be prepared! Do not listen to rumours! Continue to heed the advice from the Met Service and NEMO.

Press Release from Emergency Management Committee (EOC) in San Pedro Town and Caye Caulker

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) - Emergency Management Committee (EOC) in San Pedro Town and Caye Caulker, have been fully activated as of 2PM on Monday August 1st.

Residents of Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker are being advised to start making preparations to secure properties. Boat operators and owners are being advised to review their plan of action and start taking necessary steps to secure their vessels. Contractors and hardware store owners are being asked to remove any and all items above their building that can be flying missiles during a storm.

Hotel and resort owners are being asked to please review their emergency preparedness plan and be ready to put in place measures to secure their guests and employees.

San Pedro Belize Express and Belize Ocean Ferry remain on standby if and when evacuation is necessary. IF evacuation off the island is necessary, shelterees will be transported to the Belmopan UB gymnasium in Belmopan City.

Residents are being advised to review their emergency preparedness plan and know what to do in case of a hurricane. In addition, residents must continue to be keen and be prepared to relocate or evacuate if necessary. Residents living in flood prone areas are being asked to start securing their properties and to protect all important belonging including personal documents.

The San Pedro EOC has secured three locations on the island that will act as shelters IF necessary. Those places are the San Pedro High School in the Boca del Rio Area, the San Pedro Roman Catholic School in the downtown area and New Horrizon Seventh Day Adventist School in the DFC area.

Those people who will be moving from low-lying areas into the shelters are being advised to adhere to the shelters rules. Shelterees are asked to take along ample supply of water, food, basic first-aid kit, battery powered radio, flashlights and extra batteries, sanitary supplies, personal documents, blankets, extra change of clothes for a maximum of three days. Pet owners are responsible to make plans to secure pets since they are not allowed in hurricane shelters.

NEMO in San Pedro and Caye Caulker continue to advise everyone to listen to their local radio and television for official NEMO advisory and to heed to all warnings when issued. The other meeting of the San Pedro EOC is scheduled for 6:00 PM. For any information or question, the San Pedro EOC can be contacted at (501) 226-4458, (501) 226-4358 and (501) 226-4824 and located at the San Pedro Town Council Conference Room. The Caye Caulker EOC is situated at the Seaside Villas Hotel.

The National Emergency Management Organization hereby informs that the strong, fast moving tropical wave in the central Caribbean located 150 miles south-southwest of Kingston or some 650 miles east of Belize continues to move westward at about 20 mph. The system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, however it still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and Tropical Storm Earl could form later today. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning. As much as 6 inches of rain can be expected in our region.

If it develops into a Tropical Storm a watch followed by a warning will be issued, details to follow. People are encouraged to start putting their emergency plans into action. Stock up on essential supplies, medication, food, water, flash light, lantern, toiletries etc. If evacuating, move early. If you are going to shelter know which shelter you will go to and how you will get there. Take along what you need to survive and weather the storm for a few days. If you live in a flood prone area and along the coast and your home is not safe you are strongly advised to move early. Residents and local authorities are encouraged to clean drains to reduce flooding. Damages caused by tropical storm include: damage to trees, poorly constructed and older timber buildings; loose items can become projectiles damaging windows and doors. Broken glass, exposed nails, wood splinters and down power lines are dangerous; coastal roads will experience flooding and minor piers could suffer damage, boats can be washed away; damage to power lines and poles could result in power outages. Flooding pose a direct threat to life, contaminated water and sanitation systems poses serious health risks.

NEMO urges all to remain alert but calm. NEMO will provide more details after the 7:00 a.m. national executive committee meeting. Do not listen to rumours! Listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service.