ABC Election Coverage: South Australia 2006 Election

Election Summary

While Mike Rann's Labor government looks set to be returned
with an increased majority at the 2006 election, it is worth
remembering how perilously close Rann came to missing out on
ever serving as Premier of South Australia.

The tables below show the results of the 2002 election, when
the Labor Party fell one seat short of obtaining a majority
in its own right. Labor had three more seats than the
Liberal Party, but the balance of power lay with four cross
bench members. Of those four, one was a National Party MP
(Karlene Maywald), two were former Liberal MPs who had won
re-election as Independents (Bob Such, Peter Lewis), and the
fourth an Independent elected after missing out on Liberal
Party pre-selection (Rory McEwen). To become Premier, Mike
Rann needed to find one extra vote from amongst this
unpromising material.

The surprise solution Rann produced was an agreement with
Peter Lewis, the most conservative of the four and a man who
had served as a loyal though at times idiosyncratic Liberal
MP for more than two decades. It was a remarkable deal, but
one that has receded from memory as Rann's dominance of
state politics has grown. Since 2002, both Maywald and
McEwen have been lured into the cabinet, and when Lewis
eventually outlived his usefulness, Such took on his role as
Speaker.

Given Labor had three more seats than the Liberals, it was
not surprising that one of the four cross benchers would see
an advantage in putting Labor in office. In the outgoing
parliament, the Liberal Party had more seats than Labor but
no permanent majority. In a worse position after the
election, the Kerin government could have staggered on, but
at some point would probably have been defeated, and under
the fixed term parliament rules, produced a 'baton change'
to a Labor administration. But had Kerin survived the
immediate election aftermath, then Rann would have been
unlikely to retain the Labor leadership given his party's
indifferent election result. Rann may dominate state
politics today, but chances of him ever being Premier were
on a knife edge in the weeks following the 2002 election.

2002 HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY : STATE-WIDE TOTALS (Roll:
1,045,563)

Party

Candi-
dates

Seats
Won

Change

Votes

% Votes

Swing

Liberal Party

47

20

-3

378,929

39.97

-0.43

Labor Party

47

23

+2

344,559

36.34

+1.18

Australian Democrats

47

..

..

71,026

7.49

-8.96

Independents

24

2

..

38,402

4.05

+0.70

Family First Party

27

..

..

25,025

2.64

+2.64

One Nation

47

..

..

22,833

2.41

+2.41

Greens

22

..

..

22,332

2.36

+2.15

S.A. First

30

..

..

16,902

1.78

+1.78

National Party

4

1

..

13,748

1.45

-0.29

Independence Coalition

4

1

+1

7,323

0.77

+0.77

Independent Labor

2

..

..

6,461

0.68

+0.29

No Hoo Haa Party

1

..

..

492

0.05

+0.05

Others

..

..

..

..

..

-2.29

Formal

302

47

948,032

96.88

+0.92

-0.82

Informal

30,537

3.12

-0.92

Total Votes

978,569

93.59

+1.84

Two-Party Preferred

Labor

465,288

49.07

+0.58

Liberal

482,744

50.93

-0.58

Note
: The 'Independence Coalition' was a party formed by
ex-Liberal Peter Lewis. Of the four candidates nominated, he
was the only one to be elected.

Fisher
,
Hammond
(Both seats were won by sitting MPs who had been
elected as Liberals in 1997, but had become
Independents by 2002.)

Labor gains from Independent Labor (2)

Cheltenham
,
Enfield
(Both seats had been won by Labor MPs in 1997. The
sitting MPs resigned from the Labor Party after
losing pre-selection, and both were defeated by
Labor contesting the 2002 election.)

The Electoral Redistribution

South Australia is the only state where a redistribution must take place
after every election. It is also the only state where political consequences
are taken into account in drawing the electoral boundaries.

When the Dunstan government introduced one-vote one-value electoral laws in the
1970s, the Liberal opposition cried foul. With many Liberal
votes bottled up in safe rural seats, the Liberal Party argued that Labor's
reform was unfair. Victory at the 1979 election showed that the Liberals
could still win under the new rules, but the re-election of the Bannon government in 1989 despite
winning just 48% of the state-wide two-party preferred vote started the debate
anew. The Liberal opposition campaigned for a change to the rules for drawing
electoral boundaries, a change the minority Bannon government was forced to
accept.

Since 1989, the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission has drawn electoral
boundaries to ensure that, as far as is possible, a 'group' that receives the
majority of the vote should receive a majority of the seats. The Commission has
also developed a complex methodology to space marginal seats along the electoral
pendulum
to ensure parties receive reward for generating a swing. The result has been an
increase in the number of marginal seats, but also endless fiddling with the
boundaries of established electorates to fine tune the margins.

The immediate problem faced by the Commissioners responsible for the 2002
redistribution was in determining the 'groups' contesting the election. At one
stage the Liberal Party argued that the victories of both Peter Lewis and Bob
Such over Liberal candidates should be included as party of the 'group' vote
supporting the Labor Party. The Commissioners decided to use the final Labor versus Liberal two-party vote in each seat in
drawing the new boundaries. As Labor recorded only 49.07% of the state wide two-party
preferred vote, the Commissioners slightly strengthened the Liberal Party's hold
on its two most marginal seat, Hartley and Stuart.

Yet the whole methodology behind the redistribution process is fraught with
complexity. The margins published by the Commission are all based on projected population changes, assuming voting patterns for people moving into an electorate. Simply transferring 2002 votes to the new boundaries does not produce the same margins as those published by the Commissioners. Problems with using Boundaries Commission's projected margins in the ABC's election night computer system has forced the ABC to use produce its own estimates of margins. These margins are very similar for most seats with the exception of Port Adelaide. (More details on estimated margins.)

The methodology also ignores the increasingly important influence of sitting
MPs. It is significant that the only two seats that Labor gained from the
Liberal Party in 2002, and the only two seats where substantial swings occurred, were
Adelaide and Colton. These two seats were the only marginal Liberal seats
without a sitting member. Labor achieved office in 2002 without defeating a
sitting Liberal MP.

The process has also produced significant fiddling with boundaries to
meet the political balance criteria, ignoring obvious geographic and community
of interest arguments. For instance, the electorates of Bright and
Mitchell
extend across O'Halloran Hill in Adelaide's southern suburbs for no other reason
than to tie together Liberal and Labor voting suburbs and create marginal
electorates. A similar calculus has gone into keeping Whyalla, Port Pirie and
Port Augusta in separate electorates.

In the end, the boundaries should have no effect on the result of the 2006 election.
Unless the opinion polls are wrong or show a significant reverse for the Rann government
between now and March, the Labor Party should retain all its current seats and gain at least one
more from the Liberal Party to achieve majority
government. Given the structure of the deal that brought both Karlene Maywald
and Rory McEwen into the Rann cabinet, even a no-change election result would
see the Rann government continue in office.

Minority Government in Fixed Term parliaments.

Given the disarray in Liberal ranks in late 2001 following the resignation of John
Olsen as Premier, a Labor victory at the 2002 election looked assured. Instead,
there was a poll turnaround as the homely style of
new Premier Rob Kerin appeared to be appreciated by voters, the Liberal Party's campaign
gleefully comparing his style to that of Labor's 'media Mike'. The afterglow of
the remarkable 2001 Federal victory also assisted the Liberal Party, with Labor
polls falling in all states in line with the fall in Federal Labor support.

Having lost its majority during its second term in office, the Olsen
government was forced to accede to legislation imposing fixed terms for future
Parliaments. Election day is now fixed as the third Saturday in March every
fourth year. Technically a government determined to get an early election could
still engineer one, as was seen in the recent early German election. However, it
would require some form of delay, nullifying the advantage incumbents normally
receive from snap elections.

The fixed term legislation has created a number of problems for the Rann
government. Once in office, its popularity soared. But without the ability to
call an early election, or the occurrence of a by-election in a marginal
opposition seat, it could not translate its popularity into a parliamentary
majority. Worse, if one of the four cross bench MPs were to resign from
Parliament, the Liberal Party would probably win the by-election.

This calculus has been evident in the actions of both the Liberal and Labor parties
since the 2002 election. The Kerin government chose not to resign after Peter Lewis backed
Labor. Instead it followed constitutional precedent, and Don Dunstan's example
from 1968, in staying in office until Parliament met in an effort to maximise the pressure on Lewis. Having failed
to prevent Lewis's election as Speaker, both Lewis and Bob Such voting with
Labor, the Kerin government resigned. But the Liberal Party continued with
strong attacks on Lewis, including a court challenge to his election, in the hope
of forcing a by-election. (The court eventually ruled against the challenge.)

However, given the past erratic behaviour of Peter Lewis, it was clear the Rann government was never keen to rely on
his vote alone, a view probably borne out by subsequent
events. Despite Rory McEwen having accepted Liberal nomination as Speaker and
effectively voted against the formation of the Rann government, he joined the
Rann ministry in November 2002. In July 2004, when it
appeared Karlene Maywald may resign to contest the 2004 Federal election, Rann
acted to avoid a by-election by also bringing her into the Cabinet.
By securing his majority in this way, Rann was even able to dispense with Lewis
as Speaker when he began to accuse MPs and police officers of
being paedophiles or in league with paedophiles, Bob Such replacing Lewis as
Speaker in April 2005.

As Rann marched to the middle, his government's one casualty was the loss of Mitchell
MP Kris Hanna, who resigned from the Labor Party and joined the Greens. While this was loss of a vote for the Rann government, in practice Hanna has never been in a
position to bring down the government.

Rann has shown himself to be a master of consensus politics, bringing businessmen onto government advisory boards, and luring conservative MPs
who could have been Ministers in a Kerin government into a Labor Cabinet. If
Labor wins the 2006 election handsomely, it will be in large part due to Rann's
deft political touch. But he then may face the more difficult task of trying to
stop his own party from embarking on a bout of 'winner takes all' politics.

Where the Election will be Decided.

Opinion polls have consistently shown that Labor's vote has risen and the
Liberal vote declined since 2002. The following polls are drawn from Newspoll in
The Australian, but polls in The Advertiser have also shown a yawning gap
opening between Labor and Liberal.

NEWSPOLL - SOUTH AUSTRALIAN VOTING INTENTIONS

Poll date
(most recent first)

Labor

Liberal

Democrat

Green

Others

Jan-Feb 2006

44

37

2

3

14

Oct-Dec 2005

46

35

1

5

13

Jul-Sep 2005

45

38

1

4

12

Apr-Jun 2005

46

37

1

4

12

Jan-Mar 2005

45

40

1

5

9

Oct-Dec 2004

42

42

1

4

11

Jul-Sep 2004

43

37

2

6

12

Apr-Jun 2004

49

36

3

3

9

Jan-Mar 2004

47

34

2

5

12

Oct-Dec 2003

43

37

3

3

14

Jul-Sep 2003

42

39

2

3

14

Apr-Jun 2003

45

39

2

3

11

Jan-Mar 2003

41

38

4

6

11

Oct-Dec 2002

46

34

3

4

13

Jul-Sep 2002

42

40

3

3

12

Apr-Jun 2002

42

38

6

2

12

Election 9 Feb 2002

36.3

40.0

7.5

2.4

13.8

6-7 Feb 2002

37

43

7

2

11

Nov-Dec 2001

35

45

10

4

6

Oct-Nov 2001

40

45

9

2

4

Jul-Sep 2001

39

43

11

1

6

Apr-Jun 2001

38

38

15

1

8

Jan-Mar 2001

39

40

9

1

11

Source
: Newspoll, published in
The Australian
. Note that the National Party vote was not recorded
separately before the 2002 election and was incorporated
into the Liberal vote. The National Party have recorded
either 1% or 2% in all polls since 2002, but their vote has
been included in 'Other'. Family First is also included in
Other, but has recorded 1-2% in all polls since 2002.

For the Rann government to be re-elected, it must first retain all the
seats it currently holds. Its most marginal seat is inner-city Norwood (ALP
0.5%), a seat forever identified with former Premier Don Dunstan. Changing
boundaries and gentrification of former working class suburbs have made the seat
more marginal in recent years. It has been held by Vini Ciccarello since 1997, but she only
just survived a vigorous Liberal campaign against her in 2002. This time she
faces a very high profile Liberal opponent in recently retired Adelaide Crows
footballer Nigel Smart. His major problem in trying to win the seat is that he
will be running as much against Mike Rann as he will be Vini Ciccarello.

The second seat Labor will watch is Adelaide (ALP
0.6%). It was won in 2002 by former Adelaide Lord Mayor Jane Lomax-Smith,
holding off a challenge from then Deputy Lord Mayor Michael Harbison. Now a
Minister in the Rann government, Lomax-Smith had been going to face a challenge
from Liberal MP for Unley Mark Brindal. However, when he had to withdraw his
candidacy following a personal scandal, he was replaced as Liberal candidate by
well known publicist Diana Carroll. The high profile of Lomax-Smith and of the
Rann government should ensure Labor holds on to the seat.

On the cross benches, victory looks assured for Karlene Maywald in Chaffey
(NAT 14.1% v LIB) and Bob Such in Fisher (IND 12.2% v LIB).
An Advertiser opinion poll suggests Rory McEwen in Mount Gambier (IND
26.7% v LIB) may be in some difficulty, perhaps paying the price for joining a Labor cabinet. With the decision of Peter Lewis to contest the Legislative Council, the Liberal Party will win his seat of Hammond (IND 2.2% v LIB).

Kris Hanna will also struggle to be re-elected as a Green in Mitchell,
a seat he won with a Labor majority of 4.8% versus the Liberals in 2002. His is
a marginal electorate in which his primary vote will need to be ahead of either
the Liberal or Labor Parties if he hopes to win on preferences. The late change
in Liberal candidate may help him get ahead of the Liberal party, but Labor will
still be expecting to recover this seat.

As in 2002, the Liberal Party's most marginal seat is Hartley (LIB 2.1%),
where sitting MP Joe Scalzi increased his majority in 2002, his majority
increased even further thanks to the redistribution. In the north of the state,
Australia's longest serving MP Graham Gunn will again be contesting Stuart (LIB
2.1%), and despite the tradition of rural seats being less likely to swing than city seats, he will have to work hard to be returned.

Once based on Gawler and the rural Barossa Valley, Light (LIB 2.3%) was made marginal by the 1998 redistribution when the boundaries were extended south into Munoo Para. Held by then Education Minister Malcolm Buckby, Labor's Deputy leader Annette Hurley made the sacrifice in 2002 of giving up her safe seat of
Napier in an effort to win this marginal seat. Her attempt failed, rewarded with
a Senate place at the 2004 election, but Light remains a seat Labor has a chance
of winning given improved opinion polls.

The southern suburban seat of Mawson (LIB
3.6%)
had been won by the party that won office at every election since 1970, but 2002
saw that trend bucked as then Police Minister Robert Brokenshire was re-elected.
He will again be under threat, as will former Minister Joan Hall in the
north-eastern electorate of Morialta (LIB
3.3%).

The next two seats on the pendulum are problems for the Liberal Party due to
the retirement of sitting members. In the southern Adelaide seat of Bright (LIB
5.0%),
Wayne Matthew is retiring after representing the seat since 1989, the Liberal
Party choosing MLC Angus Redford as his replacement. Also first elected in 1989,
Dorothy Kotz is retiring as MP for Newland (LIB 5.5%),
the new Liberal candidate Mark Osterstock having contested Wright
in 2002.

At the top end of the swing for Labor is Unley (LIB
9.0%),
an inner-suburban electorate to the immediate south of the Adelaide CBD. It has
been held by Mark Brindal since 1993, but he had proposed to move and contest
Adelaide in 2006. He has since chosen to retire following a personal scandal.
The new Liberal candidate is businessman David Pisoni, but he faces a high
profile opponent in Unley Mayor Michael Keenan, coaxed back into the Labor fold
by Mike Rann after previously running as an Independent.