Setbacks Send Contras Back To Drawing Board

Beset by internal dissension and battlefield stagnation, the Contra rebels attempting to oust the Marxist Sandinista government of Nicaragua have begun a major restructuring and philosophical redefinition of their movement.

Rebel leaders and diplomats in Costa Rica and Miami (where the top Contra leaders moved their meetings Thursday) agree that the growing loss of support in the United States and the recent resignation of rebel leader Arturo Cruz were the latest in a series of devastating setbacks over the past six months.

A Western diplomat who follows the rebels closely compared their predicament to a boxer who has lost the first 14 rounds of a fight, but expects to knock out the opponent in the final round. ``Nobody in their right mind would bet on it,`` the diplomat said.

But the Contra leadership is not giving up. The remaining leaders have devised a plan to rejuvenate their movement by making it less dependent on the United States, philosophically and politically.

The plan calls for the three rebel armies to form a unified military command and for the inclusion of two Costa Rica-based rebel political groups that previously had refused to join the organization.

Even the name of the central organization, United Nicaraguan Opposition (UNO), is to change, to form instead an expanded ``Nicaragua Resistance``.

Alfonso Robelo and Pedro Joaquin Chamorro, the two remaining directors of UNO, are attempting to broaden the rebel political base by holding unity talks with representatives of the Costa Rican groups, which include moderate Nicaraguan exiles who were close to Cruz. Spokesmen for all parties say they hope for an agreement soon.

Meanwhile, Contra insiders and observers of the rebel organization have reached these conclusions:

-- The Contras, while wanting to preserve their ties with Washington -- particularly because of the economic support they receive -- want to redefine their relationship with the United States.

-- They want to re-establish a sense of identity as a Nicaraguan revolutionary movement with its own goals and political agenda and not just an appendix of U.S. foreign policy.

-- The relationship with other anti-Sandinista groups must improve considerably so that the movement is representative of all the opposition.

-- The military strategy is shifting to fight a protracted guerrilla war.

-- Contra leaders, realizing U.S. aid may end after the current fiscal year, are searching for other sources of funding.

Some conservative and traditionally pro-U.S. members of the UNO hierarchy are talking about anti-American sentiments that are emerging as a result of what they describe as ``high-handed and arrogant attempts to control the destiny of our organization.``

U.S. officials concede the changing nature of UNO may mean the new Contra movement may be more difficult to influence.

Symbolic of this stance is Chamorro, who is emerging as the central figure of the new movement. Unlike previous leaders, he has not been to Washington since he was elected by the UNO board three weeks ago. He has been in Miami only long enough to attend staff meetings.

The fact that Chamorro has no plans to go to Washington in the near future, it was explained, underlines that he will not be going there to ``pick up orders`` but will only go after he has been able to solidify his organization.

An important reason the two groups in Costa Rica are now apparently ready to join the main Contra movement is because it is putting distance between itself and Washington.

``The UNO was created to respond to the interests of American foreign policy,`` said Carlos Hurtado, spokesman for one of the groups. ``What we need is a movement whose content is 100 percent Nicaraguan. What we need are institutions that exist independently of personalities or of economic help we do or do not get from abroad. Clearly, economic help is vital. But the important point is the survival of institutions,`` Hurtado said.

Rebel leaders and Western diplomats say the best way for the rebels to win support in Congress is to demonstrate they are a force on the battlefield. But in five years of war their record is woeful -- not a single significant military victory, not a single piece of territory captured for more than a few hours.

The changing political climate within the United States also is working against the rebels. The Iran arms scandal has led to a further erosion of public confidence in Reagan administration support for the rebels, a policy that public opinion polls show has never been popular with a majority of Americans.

The conflict in Washington has undercut cooperation from Central American governments, which sense President Reagan has lost the credibility needed to carry out his Central American policy. Costa Rica President Oscar Arias has shut down rebel military operations in his country, effectively suffocating the strategic southern front. Honduran President Jose Azcona also is pressuring the rebels to move their camps into Nicaragua.