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Regular-season play resumes tonight after 5 days off for the All-Star break, so I thought it would be interesting to look at every NBA season and see how the team with the best record at the break fared the rest of the year:

Pre-Break

Post-Break

Year

Team

W

L

WPct

LgRk

W

L

WPct

Playoffs

ConfChamp

NBAChamp

1951

Minneapolis Lakers

39

21

0.650

1/11

5

3

0.625

1

0

0

1952

Syracuse Nationals

32

15

0.681

1/10

8

11

0.421

1

0

0

1953

Minneapolis Lakers

28

9

0.757

1/10

20

13

0.606

1

0

1

1954

New York Knickerbockers

28

12

0.700

1/9

16

16

0.500

0

0

0

1955

Fort Wayne Pistons

26

13

0.667

1/8

17

16

0.515

1

0

0

1956

Philadelphia Warriors

27

13

0.675

1/8

18

14

0.563

1

0

1

1957

Boston Celtics

23

14

0.622

1/8

21

14

0.600

1

0

1

1958

Boston Celtics

29

12

0.707

1/8

20

11

0.645

1

0

0

1959

St. Louis Hawks

31

12

0.721

1/8

18

11

0.621

1

0

0

1960

Boston Celtics

36

10

0.783

1/8

23

6

0.793

1

0

1

1961

Boston Celtics

32

13

0.711

1/8

25

9

0.735

1

0

1

1962

Boston Celtics

34

8

0.810

1/9

26

12

0.684

1

0

1

1963

Los Angeles Lakers

34

11

0.756

1/9

19

16

0.543

1

0

0

1964

Boston Celtics

28

9

0.757

1/9

31

12

0.721

1

0

1

1965

Boston Celtics

37

7

0.841

1/9

25

11

0.694

1

0

1

1966

Boston Celtics

27

11

0.711

1/9

27

15

0.643

1

0

1

1967

Philadelphia 76ers

39

4

0.907

1/10

29

9

0.763

1

0

1

1968

St. Louis Hawks

37

14

0.725

1/12

19

12

0.613

1

0

0

1969

Baltimore Bullets

33

11

0.750

1/14

24

14

0.632

1

0

0

1970

New York Knickerbockers

38

11

0.776

1/14

22

11

0.667

1

0

1

1971

Milwaukee Bucks

35

7

0.833

1/17

31

9

0.775

1

1

1

1972

Los Angeles Lakers

41

5

0.891

1/17

28

8

0.778

1

1

1

1973

Boston Celtics

39

7

0.848

1/17

29

7

0.806

1

0

0

1974

Boston Celtics

32

9

0.780

1/17

24

17

0.585

1

1

1

1975

Washington Bullets

29

12

0.707

1/18

31

10

0.756

1

1

0

1976

Golden State Warriors

35

13

0.729

1/18

24

10

0.706

1

0

0

1977

Los Angeles Lakers

35

19

0.648

1/22

18

10

0.643

1

0

0

1978

Portland Trail Blazers

40

8

0.833

1/22

18

16

0.529

1

0

0

1979

Washington Bullets

36

15

0.706

1/22

18

13

0.581

1

1

0

1980

Boston Celtics

40

13

0.755

1/22

21

8

0.724

1

0

0

1981

Philadelphia 76ers

44

10

0.815

1/23

18

10

0.643

1

0

0

1982

Boston Celtics

32

11

0.744

1/23

31

8

0.795

1

0

0

1983

Philadelphia 76ers

43

7

0.860

1/23

22

10

0.688

1

1

1

1984

Boston Celtics

34

9

0.791

1/23

28

11

0.718

1

1

1

1985

Boston Celtics

41

9

0.820

1/23

22

10

0.688

1

1

0

1986

Boston Celtics

38

8

0.826

1/23

29

7

0.806

1

1

1

1987

Los Angeles Lakers

35

12

0.745

1/23

30

5

0.857

1

1

1

1988

Los Angeles Lakers

35

8

0.814

1/23

27

12

0.692

1

1

1

1989

Cleveland Cavaliers

35

11

0.761

1/25

22

14

0.611

1

0

0

1990

Los Angeles Lakers

35

11

0.761

1/27

28

8

0.778

1

0

0

1991

Portland Trail Blazers

39

9

0.813

1/27

24

10

0.706

1

0

0

1992

Chicago Bulls

39

9

0.813

1/27

28

6

0.824

1

1

1

1993

Phoenix Suns

38

10

0.792

1/27

24

10

0.706

1

1

0

1994

Seattle Supersonics

35

10

0.778

1/27

28

9

0.757

1

0

0

1995

Phoenix Suns

38

10

0.792

1/27

21

13

0.618

1

0

0

1996

Chicago Bulls

42

5

0.894

1/29

30

5

0.857

1

1

1

1997

Chicago Bulls

42

6

0.875

1/29

27

7

0.794

1

1

1

1998

Seattle Supersonics

37

10

0.787

1/29

24

11

0.686

1

0

0

2000

Portland Trail Blazers

38

11

0.776

1/29

21

12

0.636

1

0

0

2001

Philadelphia 76ers

36

14

0.720

1/29

20

12

0.625

1

1

0

2002

Sacramento Kings

37

12

0.755

1/29

24

9

0.727

1

0

0

2003

Dallas Mavericks

38

10

0.792

1/29

22

12

0.647

1

0

0

2004

Sacramento Kings

37

13

0.740

1/29

18

14

0.563

1

0

0

2005

San Antonio Spurs

41

12

0.774

1/30

18

11

0.621

1

1

1

2006

Detroit Pistons

42

9

0.824

1/30

22

9

0.710

1

0

0

2007

Dallas Mavericks

44

9

0.830

1/30

23

6

0.793

1

0

0

2008

Boston Celtics

41

9

0.820

1/30

25

7

0.781

1

1

1

2009

Los Angeles Lakers

42

10

0.808

1/30

23

7

0.767

1

1

1

2010

Cleveland Cavaliers

43

11

0.796

1/30

?

?

?

?

?

?

Here are the best records ever at the All-Star break:

Pre-Break

Post-Break

Year

Team

W

L

WPct

LgRk

W

L

WPct

Playoffs

ConfChamp

NBAChamp

1967

Philadelphia 76ers

39

4

0.907

1/10

29

9

0.763

1

0

1

1996

Chicago Bulls

42

5

0.894

1/29

30

5

0.857

1

1

1

1972

Los Angeles Lakers

41

5

0.891

1/17

28

8

0.778

1

1

1

1997

Chicago Bulls

42

6

0.875

1/29

27

7

0.794

1

1

1

1983

Philadelphia 76ers

43

7

0.860

1/23

22

10

0.688

1

1

1

1973

Boston Celtics

39

7

0.848

1/17

29

7

0.806

1

0

0

1965

Boston Celtics

37

7

0.841

1/9

25

11

0.694

1

0

1

1971

Milwaukee Bucks

35

7

0.833

1/17

31

9

0.775

1

1

1

1978

Portland Trail Blazers

40

8

0.833

1/22

18

16

0.529

1

0

0

2007

Dallas Mavericks

44

9

0.830

1/30

23

6

0.793

1

0

0

1986

Boston Celtics

38

8

0.826

1/23

29

7

0.806

1

1

1

2006

Detroit Pistons

42

9

0.824

1/30

22

9

0.710

1

0

0

1985

Boston Celtics

41

9

0.820

1/23

22

10

0.688

1

1

0

2008

Boston Celtics

41

9

0.820

1/30

25

7

0.781

1

1

1

1981

Philadelphia 76ers

44

10

0.815

1/23

18

10

0.643

1

0

0

1988

Los Angeles Lakers

35

8

0.814

1/23

27

12

0.692

1

1

1

1991

Portland Trail Blazers

39

9

0.813

1/27

24

10

0.706

1

0

0

1992

Chicago Bulls

39

9

0.813

1/27

28

6

0.824

1

1

1

1981

Boston Celtics

43

10

0.811

2/23

19

10

0.655

1

1

1

1962

Boston Celtics

34

8

0.810

1/9

26

12

0.684

1

0

1

2009

Los Angeles Lakers

42

10

0.808

1/30

23

7

0.767

1

1

1

2009

Boston Celtics

44

11

0.800

2/30

18

9

0.667

1

0

0

2010

Cleveland Cavaliers

43

11

0.796

1/30

?

?

?

?

?

?

1985

Philadelphia 76ers

39

10

0.796

2/23

19

14

0.576

1

0

0

1993

Phoenix Suns

38

10

0.792

1/27

24

10

0.706

1

1

0

1995

Phoenix Suns

38

10

0.792

1/27

21

13

0.618

1

0

0

2003

Dallas Mavericks

38

10

0.792

1/29

22

12

0.647

1

0

0

1972

Milwaukee Bucks

38

10

0.792

2/17

25

9

0.735

1

0

0

1984

Boston Celtics

34

9

0.791

1/23

28

11

0.718

1

1

1

2006

Dallas Mavericks

41

11

0.788

2/30

19

11

0.633

1

1

0

1998

Seattle Supersonics

37

10

0.787

1/29

24

11

0.686

1

0

0

1995

Orlando Magic

37

10

0.787

2/27

20

15

0.571

1

1

0

2009

Cleveland Cavaliers

40

11

0.784

3/30

26

5

0.839

1

0

0

1960

Boston Celtics

36

10

0.783

1/8

23

6

0.793

1

0

1

1974

Boston Celtics

32

9

0.780

1/17

24

17

0.585

1

1

1

1994

Seattle Supersonics

35

10

0.778

1/27

28

9

0.757

1

0

0

1974

Milwaukee Bucks

35

10

0.778

2/17

24

13

0.649

1

1

0

1970

New York Knickerbockers

38

11

0.776

1/14

22

11

0.667

1

0

1

2000

Portland Trail Blazers

38

11

0.776

1/29

21

12

0.636

1

0

0

1983

Los Angeles Lakers

38

11

0.776

2/23

20

13

0.606

1

1

0

2005

San Antonio Spurs

41

12

0.774

1/30

18

11

0.621

1

1

1

1986

Los Angeles Lakers

37

11

0.771

2/23

25

9

0.735

1

0

0

2000

Los Angeles Lakers

37

11

0.771

2/29

30

4

0.882

1

1

1

2006

San Antonio Spurs

40

12

0.769

3/30

23

7

0.767

1

0

0

1973

Los Angeles Lakers

36

11

0.766

2/17

24

11

0.686

1

1

0

1973

New York Knickerbockers

39

12

0.765

3/17

18

13

0.581

1

1

1

1989

Cleveland Cavaliers

35

11

0.761

1/25

22

14

0.611

1

0

0

1990

Los Angeles Lakers

35

11

0.761

1/27

28

8

0.778

1

0

0

1991

Los Angeles Lakers

35

11

0.761

2/27

23

13

0.639

1

1

0

1983

Boston Celtics

38

12

0.760

3/23

18

14

0.563

1

0

0

2005

Phoenix Suns

41

13

0.759

2/30

21

7

0.750

1

0

0

2010

Los Angeles Lakers

41

13

0.759

2/30

?

?

?

?

?

?

1953

Minneapolis Lakers

28

9

0.757

1/10

20

13

0.606

1

0

1

1964

Boston Celtics

28

9

0.757

1/9

31

12

0.721

1

0

1

1963

Los Angeles Lakers

34

11

0.756

1/9

19

16

0.543

1

0

0

1998

Los Angeles Lakers

34

11

0.756

2/29

27

10

0.730

1

0

0

2002

Sacramento Kings

37

12

0.755

1/29

24

9

0.727

1

0

0

1980

Boston Celtics

40

13

0.755

1/22

21

8

0.724

1

0

0

1969

Baltimore Bullets

33

11

0.750

1/14

24

14

0.632

1

0

0

All told, the team with the league's best record at the All-Star break has won 25 championships in 58 seasons, good for a rate of 43.1%, which bodes much better for Cleveland than our Playoff Odds Report, which simulated the rest of the season 1,000 times and found the Cavs winning it all "only" 28% of the time (still tops in the league, but significantly less than 43%).

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 at 1:05 pm and is filed under All-Star Game, Data Dump, History.
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One Response to “Best At the Break”

Interesting data. Looking at winning percentage suggests closer agreement with the PLayoff Odds Report. Ranking the teams by by winning percentage, there appears to be a pretty significant break point just above the Cavaliers. Teams above the Cavs won the champoinship 14 out of 22 times (64%). Below, the rate was 9 out of 35 (26%). If you look at the 10 times above and 10 below Cleveland, the rate is 7/20 (35%).