One of the popular phrases in Oilerville is "getting their show run" in reference to the Oilers being unable to execute and match the physical play of their opposition. Is that a phrase we can apply to coach Tom Renney, too?

So far this season, the Edmonton Oilers are Ryan Smyth's team again. #94 was flying (as he has all season) and his line was making good things happen. At the same time, the line of RNH-Hall-Eberle was playing a secondary role, and as the game wore on the gap in TOI became more severe. There are several possibilities for this action by the coach:

Renney was coaching to win.

Renney was using playing time as a teaching tool.

Renney was line matching and Minnesota was dictating the chord changes by pushing their top line out again and again.

All of those are good reasons for a coach to double shift his veterans, and we also have to add in Taylor Hall's recent flu and RNH's tentative play for (now) the last 2 games. However, that's the "saw him good" analysis; let's run a few numbers and see who is getting the results offensively (all numbers via behind the net.ca):

Ryan Smyth

EV TOI: 15.48

Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among forwards

CorsiRel: -12.7 (11th best among forwards)

EV points-per-60: 2.58 (2nd best among forwards)

Zone Start: 38.2% (3rd toughest among forwards)

This is a very strong line. The CorsiRel is negative, but good God man look at the situation: Smyth is starting in his own zone much of the time, playing the toughest available competition and posting an outstanding point-per-60 number. Ryan Smyth has turned back time (in the good way, not the Cher way) and is the best Oiler forward (in my opinion) early this season. Gabe Desjardins would want me to mention this is a very small sample size and we shouldn't read too much into the early returns.

Taylor Hall

EV TOI: 12.96

Qual Comp: 9th toughest among forwards

CorsiRel: 21.7 (2nd best number among forwards)

EV points-per-60: 0.93 (7th among forwards)

Zone Start: 62.5% (2nd easiest among forwards)

Again, this is a small sample size, but we do see that coach Renney is giving the kids all kinds of opportunity against the soft parade (when possible). Hall's CorsiRel is exceptional, but given the situation we can't give the kids too much credit for it. The results are better 5x5/60 points for the other two kids and Hall is clearly fighting it a little in the early going.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think my first reaction ("Renney's getting his show run!") is not supported by the math. He's actually going out of his way to give the kid line a chance to impact offensively at evens and until last night aside the playing time was available in spades for the group.

A few other things: Ryan Smyth is loaded for bear. His early season performance is running circles around his previous seasons and his 5x5/60 number is outstanding. I think we should alter our expectations of Smyth--he's clearly in great shape and a man on a mission--for this season. Expecting him to play a secondary or support role to Taylor Hall may not happen. This may end up being Ryan Smyth's team for the entire year, he's playing that well.

On the other hand, Taylor Hall and the kids should be fine--especially if they get these cherry minutes--but the early season struggles may continue and Sam Gagner's return to the lineup may impact Ryan Nugent-Hopkins status on the roster. Up until this week, I felt (and still feel) the Nuge belongs, but he played just 10:43 at evens last night and if he can't be among the top 6F options at even strength then sending him back is the better plan.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

Last night sucked. If Smyth really bears down and makes a play at the blue line with 27 seconds left the Oilers win that game. Instead he dumps the puck into the bench giving the Wild an absolutely golden offensive zone draw. Then Renny compounds the situation by calling a timeout! (The Wild had already burned theirs) Unbelievable. We GAVE them their offensive zone start. We GAVE them their timeout. Then Khabi GAVE them the shortside.

I was disappointed he called that timeout too. Should have just let the Wild scramble.

Same old, same old year after year after year. "Just Win Baby", I don't care how you do it or at least provide some offense in a losing effort. I'm sick of watching this s#$t show from one season to the next. 10 more games of this and we'll see if there was any truth to the Tambellini stepping aside rumours.

I also agree Renney was out coached last night. The timeout and bench management was terrible. I dont think Horcoff has played well at all and clearly was overplayed last night. His wiff with twenty seconds on the sideboards created the turnover to the goal. Frustrating to watch to say the least. And totally agree play the kids three mins in the third and then ask them to razzle dazzle in the shoot out - might as well put big D in net too as it makes about as much sense. And Omark is really really bad, if thats the oils depth then were off to the lottery again.

J, thanks for leaving. Hope the door did not hurt on the way out. I could care less about the pics. You see worse at the mall, on TV, and surfing the net.

I've watched Oilers hockey since 1979, and for the most part the coaching style was tempo, even when the talent was not there. This season is a joke so far, and I stopped laughing when we lost against Calgary. What did the clearasil line do last night to get benched for 9 straight minutes? The only problem was their faceoffs. No wonder RNH is starting to get hesitant, the whole team is being overcoached and we are turning into Nashville 2.0.

Last year, I read somewhere (I believe it was Lowetide or Stauffer) that pointed out Oilers fans could get increasingly tired of Renney's structure and systems. Oil fans will put up with if they win, as did fans in Minny during the Lemaire years. What a waste of talent. What's wrong with occasional stretch pass, the occasional defensemen in the rush, or keeping the puck in the zone. The changes are obvious. Beyond the fact their defence zone coverage is awesome this year, the PK is excellent, defensemen are leaving the zone to early in the offence zone. The plugging up of the middle would make Hitchcock giggle like a schoolgirl. And worst of all, is they stopped trying to win. Hell, even Omark looks like freaking Carbonneau right now. We're not some hybrid Minnesota/ Nashville ugly step-sister were the Mother Freaking Oilers. Give me firewagon hockey or give me death.

That's how I see it. Not in that Order, but those would be my line combos.

What's wrong with you Arch? I thought you'd see Gagner's return as the perfect opportunity to have Omark run out of town instead of Lander. I will admit that although Omark has shown well at times he hasn't done enough, and I would prefer to keep Lander over him. That would mean either Lander or Gagner get moved to the wing and I don't see that as an issue. For now, just slide Lander where you have Hemsky slotted.

Tambellini brings in the type of players he feels the hockey club needs and Renney staples them to the bench. Looks to be some philosophical differences between these two. Maybe a coaching change should be made.

The only answers he has are on his bench and he chooses to leave them there.

Tambellini brings in the type of players he feels the hockey club needs and Renney staples them to the bench. Looks to be some philosophical differences between these two. Maybe a coaching change should be made.

The coaches only currency is ice time. He had a reason for keeping them on the bench.

I'm more disappointed in his forecheck system.

0-3-2 Jacques Lemaire special.

I thought that when you had fast players you could have a pressure forecheck and not just trap?

Mind you, you need good D to handle to oddman rushes that can result from a heavy forecheck, and maybe Renney playing the trap helps keep them from being exposed too much.

He's coaching to win, but with kids and a variable D its no fun to watch.

i dislike how Renney has coached so far. far too much protect and shelter and not near enough trying to win the war by sending out the bullets in the gun.

soft minutes yes they are getting that, but do they need that?

win face-offs? yes Horc and Belanger can do that but do they have game changing offense, i think not.

Horcoff is playing well but should still be on the third line not every line all the time. jeez.

Horc: has been one of our best player this year.

Since the lockout He has been top 30 to top 15 in assist production top 50 to 30 for goal production for centers except 09-10. 5 of six years One of the better set-up men in hockey. With a defensive game.

Horcoffs problem is having to yeild the set-up role to Hemsky. Horcoff hangs back as hemsky wandered for the last three years.

Those two should not be playing together. But they were the only ones who had any chance against the other teams best. Now we have a Power VS. Power line. Keep them apart.

Now he is back with two scorers and taking the primary set-up role. He is often the first entry in to the zone. I would be more than happy with a .7PPG pace 18G (Top 40 C) 38 Assist (top 20 C) season facing the other teams best.

While your provado is wonderful. What I thought was the case after smyth left is being proven.

Keep Horcoff, RNH, Hemsky, Gagner Apart. They are all low goal High assist guys who need to be the set-up man on different lines. Which is kind of a problem. 3 scoring lines and 4 set-up players.

Thou RNH shows more Defensive game than he in red deer.

The soft minutes action needs to go to the kids cause The two road games they were outmatched when the other team had last change.

Plus game changing offence? Top 20 for assists and shut the other best. What you give up counts as much as what you get. Get 4 give up 5. Awsome stats offensively but lose the game.

A good team shuts down (breaks even) the others teams best. (Smyth-Horc-Jones) and they others kill the soft ??????????? Still waiting! Hope for the return of Gagner and Hemsky.

While your provado is wonderful. What I thought was the case after smyth left is being proven.

Educate yourself on what number is required for each stat
top 10: 30G 45A 70P

top 20: 23G 35A 60P

Top 40: 18G 30A 48P

Center production.

Gagner top 20 once; top 50 3 times

Heck with RNH, Gagner, Horcoff we have two centers who have been top 20 in assists and one that is sure to be. Belanger has been top 50 twice.

With these three we need wingers who point production is at least 40% goals.

Magnus crashed the net as least once last night that I can remember. But with his size, I'd like to see him work the boards more (like Forsberg used to) and storm the net a lot more.

Right. He needs to be a constant threat to drive the net from the boards or on the rush. It will change how the ice looks to him.

Defense will back off him to a degree for fear of getting beat, especially if he starts potting them. He'll gain time and have more options. As long as he is a bit passive defense can play him more aggressively which takes time away from him.

It is different for every player. They need to really learn how to be effective with whatever offensive weapons they have. The Sedins don't drive the net much but are so deadly retaining the puck finding open players it gains them a little space, a little advantage.

Ugh. I thought we finally had them last night, what a depressing loss I mean Belanger rings the post twice!! Somebody in the nation must have pissed off the hockey Gods cause were never gonna beat these guys. :(

In fact, there is an approximately 500m sexualized zone around Mila Kunis at all times. The photo just captured this phenomina. She could be wearing a neck to toe fuzzy pink bathrobe and curlers and complaints could still be made.

Anyone else feel the Refs last night let the kids get manhandled on typical Wild cheapshots? An elbow to the head on Lander, the corkscrew takendown on Lander, the late hit behind the net on Lander - no penalities.

Also, I think I counted 3 deliberate dives by Cluster-&%#@..I mean Clutterbuck...and Bouchard in the last 10mins. Again...nothing called.

It's quite apparent that rookies still need to earn respect from refs in the league before they'll get any calls their way.

The last two games have been hard to take, however, there are still a lot of positives this year. Khabibulin seems to have gotten his game back, despite the last second goal, and this is a very good thing. The defensive zone coverage can still improve, and it will as there are basically 4 new defensemen (I am including Whitney, due to the amount of games he's missed).

There have been plenty of scoring chances in every game, the goals will come if they keep playing the way they have been. Is it just me, or does the puck seems to be really "bouncing" on the Oilers this year?

I am disappointed in Omark, especially his defensive effort. I did like the Swede line on it's only shift though, I think they have great chemistry. Too bad they don't try them together for an entire game.

Keep the faith, I know the goals will come. This team has a lot of room for improvement, and I am optimistic that it comes together in the next 5-10 games.

thanks for the lesson. i am certain there are some usefull stats produced by you.

the thing is i am basing my opinion on watching the games and not staring at the hockey database website. good for you for doing the research and i had the smallest inclination to do that i could. i don't.

you want to use advanced stats to further your cause, float your boat. not me i like watching.

Ok after a night of crying and drowning my sorrow with brewskies, I woke up refreshed and with a better outlook on the Oil.

Someone's always gonna find someone to hate If it's not Horcoff, it's Omark, maybe Renney. Just part of being a fan I guess. But the six games so far has shown a great improvement from last year. Last night's game could have easily been 4-0 for us. A couple of right bounces and it would have been very different. Last year they rarely gave themselves the opportunity to get the right bounces.

I like what I'm seeing so far. Belanger's not always going to hit the post. This team will learn how to protect a lead. The kids have been great but I do want the veterans out there protecting the lead. Yes they have not been good so far, but give it time.

Anyone else feel the Refs last night let the kids get manhandled on typical Wild cheapshots? An elbow to the head on Lander, the corkscrew takendown on Lander, the late hit behind the net on Lander - no penalities.

Also, I think I counted 3 deliberate dives by Cluster-&%#@..I mean Clutterbuck...and Bouchard in the last 10mins. Again...nothing called.

It's quite apparent that rookies still need to earn respect from refs in the league before they'll get any calls their way.

Just watched Renney's post-game over at the official site. He seemed to claim three things regarding the kid line:

1) hall was still feeling it a bit

2) the kid line in general was struggling

3) he didn't trust RNH in the FO circle in the 3rd

that's basically what I thought was going on. I still think he overcompensated for these factors by playing the vets so much in the last period.

@Saint

I saw the Lander stuff too. What is impressive about it (no calls aside) is how much he must get under the skin of opposing teams... did anyone else think this was part of his game, I didn't. Good to know he plays with an edge and a bit of stink eye for the other team

Anyone listen to 1260 after the game? I was completely blown away when the 2 hosts started talking about how Dubnyk needs to play more and get a string of games together. WHY? Goaltending and defense has been extraordinarily good this year. It's incredible someone can still find fault in Khabibulin for letting in a "soft goal" last night.

Nothing says fail better than leaving the quickest line on the bench for OT. Really admire Renneys willingness to pin the tail on these donkey veterans (cept for Ryan Smyth of course) We shouldn't be surprised, they've never been able to achieve much on their own unless they've had better players surrounding them.

4,93 and 14 must certainly realize by now these veterans are just a bunch of bumps desguised as an NHL team. Minnesota, BLASPHEMY!

Qick Silver:

Tough Comp players and Soft offensive zone players who can not outscore are the same.

Just like you being rocked to sleppy as a baby by a prostitute or your mom are the same.

thanks for the lesson. i am certain there are some usefull stats produced by you.

the thing is i am basing my opinion on watching the games and not staring at the hockey database website. good for you for doing the research and i had the smallest inclination to do that i could. i don't.

you want to use advanced stats to further your cause, float your boat. not me i like watching.

Porn! You were watching porn! Cause your comments say you were mnot watching the game! So it has to be Porn! Cause "YOU LIKE WATCHING."

i had written Horcoff off last year. But this year he has been the Tough Comp Shutdown Center (plays them near even) who is top forty in Scoring. There are only 5 to 6 of them a year. He was 4 of the last 6 hope this is 5 of 7. Oh and average salary 5.5M

It's not that Horcoff and Smyth haven't delivered, far from it. It's that in a one-goal game, when the last thing you should do is take your proverbial foot off the gas, Renney sat his best scoring line of 4-93-14 and tried to sit on the lead.

How many times does this have to happen before he understands that sitting back in a shell on a one-goal cushion is a recipe for disaster? It's much like the Prevent defense in football...I've also been a believer in continuing to do what got you into the lead in the first place, not sitting back and hanging on for dear life.

Best example I can provide is Game 7 of the 1987 Cup Final vs. Philadelphia (and no, I'm not comparing that Oiler team to this one...just the strategy employed). Slats didn't hold the boys back in the 3rd with a 2-1 lead, he let them loose. The Flyers managed all of TWO shots in that final period, and we all remember how it ended: Glenn Anderson sealed the deal with less than 2 minutes remaining.

The math may not suggest it, but my first-hand experience as an athlete, let alone a sports fan, says otherwise. Never take your foot off the gas,

i was watching the game and my kids. darn kids distract me from the game.

i never said Horcoff was bad nor do i dislike, but at this time with what kind of team we can become (hopefully Renney doesn't f**k it up) he is our 3rd line center. sure play him the tough minutes that's fine.

you didn't learn to do stats work and write really long answers by your mom telling you what to write and typing for you, did you? most likley not you learned thru experience. kinda like the kids need to as well.

Was anyone else terribly confused by Principe's insistence that Clutterbuck looked like Clark Gable? What was that all about? Mutiny on the Bounty I think not! Aside from the moustache (which is more of a handle bar than a early 20th cent. gentleman southerner moustache anyway) there was no resemblance... it was just... weird.

No kidding. Obviously Principe is off his game as well this early in the season. Besides, it's obvious that Call Clutterbuck is actually Joey Fatone...

Speaking of which, Wanye, the next contest on ON has got to be a poster contest for Oiler players who look like someone else famous.

Didn't Scott Oake say RNH looked like Ellen Page? Maybe this is a new angle for marketing the NHL to the US... we look like movie stars (sometimes long dead, sometimes women, mostly there is no resemblance at all) but hey, movie stars!!

Keep RNH and send Lander down... then we have depth with the ability to call Lander up.

Send RNH down and our first call up from the AHL will be significanly weaker.

O'Marra or Brule? I guess those would be the choices? hard to say really...

I hadn't even thought of that. That's the best argument for keeping RNH up that i've heard

[EDIT] the Barons website lists Brule as RW, i could have sworn he was a centre. Anyway, there is also: Pitlick, Green, Kyntar, House, and Vandevelde... I imagine O'Marra is the first call up; Green has the best record so far and it looks like Brule isn't even really playing... I guess his "injury" or whatever is still plaguing him... that really sucks. It would be awesome if he got over whatever it is and made back to the big time, or even just got better for his own sake.

Hi Lowetide. You said a few weeks ago you were going to "try" not to post the sexualized pictures of women. You haven't done that. So, I'm finished visiting this site, as well as your blog.

J - you failed to respond to the respectful retorts to your position so perhaps LT felt as though you must have gone through an awakening of some sort and were no longer offended. Either that or he felt that your position is motivated by ill informed 'morals' that are silly at best and harmful at worst.

They did look good, and then Renney went right back to Belanger with them. Puzzling.

Still. One of these days production has to beat out style.

If Tre Kronor started to light it up it'd be pretty hard to justify sending Lander back down to OKC, which is almost sure to happen when Gagner gets back into the lineup. I'm almost certain Renney knows what they can do because it's been pretty damn obvious every time they're on the ice together.