An American intelligence report says a nuclear exchange between India and
Pakistan could kill up to 12 million people and injure seven million.

The disclosure came as Pakistani nuclear experts bitterly criticised the armies
of both countries for trivialising nuclear war and failing to educate their
people about the consequences.

The US assessment said a limited nuclear exchange would have cataclysmic results,
overwhelming hospitals across Asia and the Middle East and requiring vast foreign
assistance, particularly from America, which would be forced to go in and clean
up the radioactive mess.

Millions more people would die of starvation, disease and radiation. Most of
the bombs would explode on the ground, spreading radioactive debris over a large
area and destroying agriculture for years.

Between nine and 12 million people would die and another two to seven million
would be injured. The contamination would spread far beyond India and Pakistan.
US and British troops in Afghanistan and US troops in Pakistan and Central Asia
would be affected.

Pakistan's leading nuclear war specialist, Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy, professor of
physics at Qaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, was among those who criticised
both his homeland and India for failing to acknowledge the dangers of nuclear
power.

He said: "The most frightening delusion is India's trivialisation of Pakistan's
nuclear capability, while Pakistan is addicted to nuclear weapons."

Dr Hoobhoy, who also heads the country's anti-nuclear campaign, led a demonstration
in Islamabad this month. Just a handful of people turned up to protest on the
fourth anniversary of the nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan.

Dr Hoodbhoy argues that by pouring scorn on Pakistan's nuclear capability or
by claiming that America would never allow Pakistan to go nuclear, Indian strategic
planners try to justify a limited war in Kashmir.

"After the upsurge of Kashmiri militancy, denying the potency of Pakistan's
nuclear weapons has become more convenient [for India] because it clears the
road to a limited war," said Dr Hoodbhoy.

Last week Bruce Reidel, a senior official of the former Clinton administration,
admitted that the Pakistani military had mobilised its nuclear weapons during
the Kargil conflict in Kashmir in 1999 without telling the then prime minister,
Nawaz Sharif. Today's Kashmiri and Pakistani militants also shelter under the
same nuclear umbrella while the population is being held hostage by the two
nuclear powers.

According to Dr Hoodbhoy, most Indians and Pakistanis know little about nuclear
war and believe that a nuclear explosion just gives a bigger bang than an ordinary
bomb.

India and Pakistan have both claimed that they are as responsible as America
and the Soviet Union were at the height of the Cold War.

The authorities do not welcome criticism of their nuclear programmes in their
respective media.
Related reports