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While much of the focus for the last month (or so) has been on Democrats' retirement problems -- set off by a quartet of announcements in swing and Republican-leaning districts over the last month -- a broad look at the open seat playing field suggests more parity in terms of the two parties' opportunities and vulnerabilities than conventional wisdom suggests.

Republicans currently carry 14 open seats while Democrats have 10. Each side has three seats won by the other party's presidential candidate in 2008; for Democrats, that's Louisiana's 3rd district and Tennessee's 6th and 8th districts while for Republicans it's Delaware's at-large seat, Illinois' 10th district and Pennsylvania's 6th district.

Of the remaining 11 seats for Republicans, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) won between 50 and 55 percent in three (Florida's 12th, Michigan's 2nd and California's 19th) and between 55 and 60 percent in three more (Kansas' 4th, Oklahoma's 5th and South Carolina's 1st).

Those numbers are roughly equivalent to Democrats' current retirement lineup with two districts where President Obama took between 50 and 55 percent of the vote (Kansas' 3rd and Washington's 3rd) and two more (New Hampshire's 2nd and Pennsylvania's 7th) where he won between 55 and 60 percent.

All told, Republicans are defending nine open seats that McCain either lost or won with less than 60 percent of the vote in 2008 while Democrats are on defense in seven seats lost by Obama or won with less than 60 percent. (A full list of open seats and presidential performance is after the jump.)

To be sure, Republicans still have history on their side. The first midterm election of a president's first four years in office is traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party. In the last four first term, midterm elections the president's party has lost 26 seats (1982), eight seats (1990), 54 seats (1994) and gained eight seats (2002). (The 2002 midterms were anomalous due in large part to the lingering impact of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.)

Democrats' ranks have also not been thinned over the last few elections by a series of losses in the same way Republicans experienced, meaning, theoretically, that there are more Democratic members who may be looking for a way out in November as they contemplate a life beyond Congress.

And, candidate quality does matter so recruitment, which has favored Republicans thanks to the tilt of the national playing field, is important in places like New Hampshire's 2nd district and Pennsylvania's 7th district among others.

As we wrote this morning, the next month will be critical for House Democrats. If there are only a handful of retirements -- and a majority of those come in non-competitive districts -- then the talk of an avalanche of departures will quiet and the nerves of jangling members may well be calmed.

What a close examination of the current open seat landscape reveals, however, is that the talk of a doomsday scenario for House Democrats simply hasn't materialized yet. Are they likely headed to double-digit losses come November? Yes. But, talk of a switch in House control is, at least at this point, premature.

So, from this old list, of the 11 Democrats leaving office, 6 are bidding on higher jobs. Of the 13 Republicans leaving office, 11 are looking to a higher office. Dodd, Dorgan, and Ritter have to be added to the Democrat list (just in, LG Cherry from MI too), none of whom are upgrading their careers.

The point is, her main effort was to bring CONTRACEPTION to women. And that is the main effort of Planned Parenthood as well.
__________________________________________________
The former Planned Parenthood director Abby Johnson, on November 2, 2009, after eight years working at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Bryan, Texas, including two years as its director,

"According to Johnson, the non-profit was struggling under the weight of a tough economy, and changing it’s business model from one that pushed prevention, to one that focused on abortion."

"The money wasn’t in family planning, the money wasn’t in prevention, the money was in abortion and so I had a problem with that,' said Johnson."

"how i CAN BECOME AN ILLEGAL, ALTHOUGH i WAS BORN AND BREAD IN WHAT WAS THE usa, SO THAT i CAN GET EVERYTHING WITHOUT COST, MEDS, HOSPITALS, DOCTOR TREATMENT WITHOUT CO PAYS."

First you attend elementary school and learn to spell and capitalize first words of sentences, proper nouns and not capitoloze everything else. Then you need to go eat some BREAD.
Then pickle your brain further by watching Hannity and Beck some more. In addition to the benefits above you could have also bought a car at the junkyard and cashed it in using "Cash for Clunkers" Except the minor details that you had to have the title 12 months prior to the program and proof of insurance. Other than that Hannity again exposed another loophole that is dominating the country, in fairy-tale land, under the right conditions that don't currently exist.

What specific loophole is an illegal using that gives them all this free stuff? If that loophole exist. what explicitly keeps you from using it?

Very well said, it's nice to see the occasional post from a rational, reasonable person who thinks for themselves.

The problem isn't so much that the far left and far right equally have nothing but their own limited ideology at heart, it's their complete inability to recognize moderation and centrism and label it as such.
To someone on the far right, anyone who isn't equally ultra-conservative is a raging liberal tree-hugging Birkenstock-wearing commie pinko terrorist-lover...and to someone on the far left, anyone who isn't ultra-liberal is a raging fascist racist pollution-loving gun-toting Klan member Jesus freak.

The fact is that even our own President is pretty much smack dab in the center, if not slightly leaning towards the left.
Does that matter to the right-wingnuts who want to paint him as a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.
Does it matter to the left-wingnuts that he's NOT a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.

Extremists want their way or the highway, even though their way only works for them and the handful of lemmings who choose to think like them because they're too scared to accept that not everyone is like them, and that's OK.
It takes much more maturity and strength to say "you and I differ on points A and B but we should at least find a common ground."

I'm glad our President is smarter than most of the raving lunatics that populate the media, these message boards, and some political offices.

Posted by: JMGinPDX

------------------

No comment, just felt that your comment needed a repost. Well said.

Reposted by js_edit

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Just wanted to repost the above repost... maybe our politicians will realize that most of the country is in the middle (and maybe even slightly left of center, considering that the current Republican Party no longer resembles the Republican Party I grew up with.) Seeing those gun-toting anti-government right-wing morons at the town hall meetings where Obama spoke made me just as ill as those gun-toting anti-government left-wing morons of the 60s. I just hope others feel the same.

kwoods2 asks
"Redistricting Michele Bachmann's district is the only hope Democrats have?"

No; I would describe it more as a wish Democrats have. It is the inverse wish that Republicans have, of course. Tom Delay & the Texas Legislature did some rather creative redistricting in Texas not too many years ago. Personally, I think redistricting should be handed to non-political commissions, but given that its legally in the hands of the legislature, this is a dream that I surely must let die.

Very well said, it's nice to see the occasional post from a rational, reasonable person who thinks for themselves.

The problem isn't so much that the far left and far right equally have nothing but their own limited ideology at heart, it's their complete inability to recognize moderation and centrism and label it as such.
To someone on the far right, anyone who isn't equally ultra-conservative is a raging liberal tree-hugging Birkenstock-wearing commie pinko terrorist-lover...and to someone on the far left, anyone who isn't ultra-liberal is a raging fascist racist pollution-loving gun-toting Klan member Jesus freak.

The fact is that even our own President is pretty much smack dab in the center, if not slightly leaning towards the left.
Does that matter to the right-wingnuts who want to paint him as a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.
Does it matter to the left-wingnuts that he's NOT a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.

Extremists want their way or the highway, even though their way only works for them and the handful of lemmings who choose to think like them because they're too scared to accept that not everyone is like them, and that's OK.
It takes much more maturity and strength to say "you and I differ on points A and B but we should at least find a common ground."

I'm glad our President is smarter than most of the raving lunatics that populate the media, these message boards, and some political offices.

The Republican Party needs to go the way of the Whig Party. Its members don't get it that the first product of our constitution and our democracy is the Government which deserves our attention and respect.

The Republican Party has been successful in using demagoguery in exercising their power beyond their numbers. My throwing the uneducated masses raw meat issues rooted in fear such as abortion,gay marriage, terrorism--you name it--they have been able to loot America with the greatest transfer of wealth from the middle and lower classes to the top 5% of the country's population.

Of course this has weakened America as the Republican exploitation machine has presided over job transfers overseas and the initiation of two disastrous wars that have benefited the military-industrial complex with Blackwater and Haliburton leading the way.

We need a new party that stands for fiscal conservatism and is willing to participate in democratic government where consensus building and compromise are vital. This angry old white men from the South are done or should be done if the Nation is to prosper.

it is all in the political game. retie- collect pension and then either take a different political position or be hired or reelected to their former jobs. now these sleeze bags can have salary and pension. However the health care reform bill turns out , in the end it is a win-win situation for the political animal. If you think I am blowing smoke, just find out from our NYS Govenor Patterson, it has been going on in New York and it will continue thru the country.

I have asked the immigration dept. how i CAN BECOME AN ILLEGAL, ALTHOUGH i WAS BORN AND BREAD IN WHAT WAS THE usa, SO THAT i CAN GET EVERYTHING WITHOUT COST, MEDS, HOSPITALS, DOCTOR TREATMENT WITHOUT CO PAYS. . REMEMBER THE DAY NIXON SAID "I am not a crook' - I just laughed till I cried. Sorry to say, Obama is a trickey-dickey. Got himself setup for the rest of his natural life and he can sit back while this country falls apart,and Nero fiddled while Rome burned!

"What a close examination of the current open seat landscape reveals, however, is that the talk of a doomsday scenario for House Democrats simply hasn't materialized yet. Are they likely headed to double-digit losses come November? Yes. But, talk of a switch in House control is, at least at this point, premature."

Kinda co-sign (midterm losses for the majority party is fairly typical and do not tell you anything). Clean (non-Drudge) political analysis, CC. Thanks for the knowledge.
___________

And today HuffPo has a great photograph of the king of the teabaggers, Dale Robertson, standing 'side his homemade "tax protest" sign. Two problems, though: (1) he misspelled his favorite racial slur--this civic leader put an "a" before the "r" instead an "e" and (2) he made no mention any tax protest. Go figure.

@ kwoods2 - The discussion of Minnesota redistricting was a follow-up on a post of drindl at 2:49 p.m. that explicitly mentioned Bachmann. This also follows on a post of CC's last week regarding projected shifts in population that would lead to Minnesota losing a seat. I didn't mention Bachmann as her name had already been in the thread.

bsimon1 and FairlingtonBlade,
Redistricting Michele Bachmann's district is the only hope Democrats have?

If Minnesota moves from eight to seven congressional districts:

"The first version, the imagined result of bipartisan redistricting, protects Bachmann’s seat. Instead it pits incumbent Democrat Rep.Tim Walz against incumbent Republican Rep. John Kline in a reconfigured First District in the state’s southeastern corner.

The second version, with Democrats controlling the state Legislature and the governor’s office, puts Kline up against fellow Republican Bachmann in a new district that wraps around the Twin Cities in a U shape. Nathaniel90 concedes, however, that Bachmann still could emerge the victor in a GOP primary battle."http://minnesotaindependent.com/33379/redistricting-minnesota-bachmann

The funny thing is that apparently
Democrats need to rely on redistricting to survive.

I'm from the MN6th and the district is very diverse with the northern part more rural and the south identifying with the Twin Cities suburban. It is prime real estate to slice into 2-3 parts plus no one, including the state republicans, likes our dingbat congressperson. Her only political comrade is touring out of Alaska….I think if we go down one slot then the 6th is toast….
___________________________________________________
Why did you attempt to hide who you were talking about? The entire nation knows Michele Bachmann, and she's a shoo-in.

Please continue to report that Democrats have nothing to worry about this year, that the country loves the new health care bill and that it still worships at the feet of Obama. I mean, the stock market went up almost 200 points today. Doesn't that mean that the economy is in great shape?

This is an astute professional analysis of campaigns that are nine months away. The technical factors described will affect outcomes, but what Democrats must keep in mind is not the game but the rules.

The perennial question is: "What have you done for us lately? This congress and this administration have about six months to complete health care and move the focus toward greater equity for Main Street.

Mr Summer and Mr. Geitner will most probably not be helpful in developing policies to accomplish that mission. If independent voters are not convinced that this Democratic government is on their side, the tide will turn, even though the current GOP is as bereft of ideas, as it is of character.

The sooner more people realize that the far left and the far right are bad for this country the faster we can get this country back on the track that the founding fathers set for us.
Posted by: mburton325
==================================
Very well said, it's nice to see the occasional post from a rational, reasonable person who thinks for themselves.

The problem isn't so much that the far left and far right equally have nothing but their own limited ideology at heart, it's their complete inability to recognize moderation and centrism and label it as such.
To someone on the far right, anyone who isn't equally ultra-conservative is a raging liberal tree-hugging Birkenstock-wearing commie pinko terrorist-lover...and to someone on the far left, anyone who isn't ultra-liberal is a raging fascist racist pollution-loving gun-toting Klan member Jesus freak.

The fact is that even our own President is pretty much smack dab in the center, if not slightly leaning towards the left.
Does that matter to the right-wingnuts who want to paint him as a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.
Does it matter to the left-wingnuts that he's NOT a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.

Extremists want their way or the highway, even though their way only works for them and the handful of lemmings who choose to think like them because they're too scared to accept that not everyone is like them, and that's OK.
It takes much more maturity and strength to say "you and I differ on points A and B but we should at least find a common ground."

I'm glad our President is smarter than most of the raving lunatics that populate the media, these message boards, and some political offices.

Thanks to C Span and plenty of time, I watched the Congress thrash through the past six months and sure, they pander to their party and pretend to speak for "the American people" when we, the people, are obviously highly divided but those people really work hard. They do. Some of them are idealogues and some of them are all the way bought and some of them have hopes and dreams. It's not all one thing. I am partisan too. Everytime a R retires, I break out the chips and dips and party.

Good! Not surprising, Nature abhors climate change deniers (republicans).With the planet at the cusp of ruin if strong action is not taken, it would be a global disaster if Republicans got into power. We are already deep in trouble due to 8-10 years of republican mismanagement. Secondly, all this talk of the "republicans making gains" as though the polls actually supported this statement of ignorance. They do not and any "gains" the republicans imagine themselves to be making are purely the product of spin and republican lies. About as truthful as the swift boat criminals. Republicans are still polling 18% and President Obama is still polling 52%. It's wonderful news that more Republicans are smartening up and jumping ship. However, the Democrats are slated to to maintain control of the Congress in 2010 and in 2012.

I'm from the MN6th and the district is very diverse with the northern part more rural and the south identifying with the Twin Cities suburban. It is prime real estate to slice into 2-3 parts plus no one, including the state republicans, likes our dingbat congressperson. Her only political comrade is touring out of Alaska….I think if we go down one slot then the 6th is toast….

Oops. I keep forgetting that the mn in mnteng isn't for Minnesota. Thanks for your response and that of bsimon. I just took a look at the DFLers in the House. Districts 7 and 8 are held by Peterson and Oberstar--they're not going anywhere. One could presumably grow District 3 a bit and redistribute the population of 6 into 1, 7, and 8. Don't know where Bachman would fit into that fight.

For all the Republicans out there, Willie Nelson's song seems to sum it up for 2010 and beyond, "I'm crazy, crazy for feeling so lonely
I'm crazy,
crazy for feeling so blue
I know
you'd love me as long as you wanted
then someday
leave me for somebody new".

"By the way obstructionism is a good thing when it serves the will of the people."

By definition, in a democracy, a minority blocking the will of the majority is not serving the will of the people. It's thwarting it.

Your statement would make more sense and be more truthful if you amended it to read "when it serves the will of the people I agree with." But then I would question your commitment to democracy. Good enough for Iraq, not good enough for the U.S., eh?

The only apt comparison for mid-term elections is 1934. Mitch McConnell and Boehner would be well served to bone up on their history, but then, so would Harry Reid. The country seemed much more capable of holding sinners accountable for their sins in 1934. It's time to quit mincing words and find some backbone.

On MN redistricting, the politicians are currently speculating that the recession, which has slowed population shifts, may actually save all the seats in MN. Should that not be the case, population shifts have been away from 7 & 8. 1 includes Rochester, which I understand is roughly neutral. 2, 3 and 6 have seen the most growth. Repubs would love to see 4 & 5 combined, but if the Lege is held by the Dems (likely), that won't happen. Dems of course want Rep Bachmann to go away & would love to kill that seat, but will have to retain the Lege & win the Governorship to make it happen. So... my early guess is that Colin Peterson is the one to go.

More interesting might be how the boundaries change. Rep Bachmann's is the goofiest in shape & she lives in a piece that could easily be shifted to another district. As they say, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

Okay, so if I pray real hard for the Constitution to be saved, it will be saved.

So much for law school and fighting the USA Patriot Act.

And drsam is correct about the Cheney body language. He is Darth Vader. Or his head and/or heart will explode like Mars Attack.
Play some high pitch sounds around that pacemaker and see if it drops him!!!

Um, I'm not going to be a lot of help on MN politics, but maybe bsimon1 will weigh in on the topic.

Assuming that MN loses a seat, I think the DFLers would like to redistrict the 4th and 5th to retire Bachmann to the lecture circuit. But the Rs might be able to put Minny and St. Paul into one district, making Ellison and/or McCollum vulnerable. bsimon1 can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the MN population shift is to the Twin Cities metro area and out of the more rural areas. Your proposal about redistricting 1, 7, and 8 seems reasonable to me.

Posted by: Cryos | January 4, 2010 3:18 PM
"Democrats are the ones trying to play politics with terrorism (or is it man made disasters I guess polls showed democrats looked like fools for pushing that)."
----------
You have got to be joking on this one or you are in denial.

"They sat on a nominee for 8 months for the TSA"
---------
Jim DeMint has been blocking the nomination since day 1

"By the way obstructionism is a good thing when it serves the will of the people."
-------
Yes, but the Repubs have way over done it over the last few years, at a record pace.

SPIRITUAL ADVICE FOR REPUBLICANS, CHENEY AND LIKE-MINDED
CHENEY'S PROBLEM--AND HE DOES NOT KNOW IT.

HE HATES TOO MUCH. Look at his blood shot eyes. Sages have said such is the result of "of stress, which builds up excessive negative 'fire' energy in the upper part of the head." He must learn how to love or he will pay terrible spiritual consequences in this or next life, and face untold physical consequences as well. He now looks gaunt and troubled--and his heart is heavy. He is out for revenge. The ego speaks so loudly, and does not know how to go with the flow. He is unable to really, really relax. He hates the fact that a black man is President of the United States. On the surface, he looks strong, but he is a coward within. He needs inner peace. The main driving force of his anger and politics is his wife, with his daughter Liz serving as an echo chamber. They are constantly pushing him to stand up to Obama, even against all civilized political ethic. This will sow the seed of his ultimate destruction--and Obama will succeed in the end beyond everybody's wildest expectations. He will be remembered as a transformational President. Hates destroys, and will never lead to anything good! That is the path the extreme right must ponder.

A Republican candidate for governor in Idaho who joked about hunting President Obama over the summer is calling for God to save the U.S. Constitution.

Rex Rammell, in a field of GOP contenders for the nomination, said recently it is time for citizens to "rise up" and defend the Constitution and will spread that message on the campaign trail.

"To think that we can save the Constitution without God's help when the government of the United States is corrupt is absurdity," he said. "We are in America's second Revolutionary War to save our freedom, which we paid for with blood. We need God's help and I'm not ashamed to ask for it."

The Idaho Statesman first reported the video where Rammell makes the remarks.

In the video, Rammell quotes Joseph Smith of the LDS Church and said he disagrees with people seeking separation of church and state.

"I am simply trying to rally the people to this cause," he said.

He said he's "tired" of people telling him he can't bring God into his campaign speeches.

Rammell made headlines in August when speaking to a local Republican group about the state's wolf hunt, for which hunters must pay for "wolf tags." An audience member shouted out a question about "Obama tags."

More and more people are not identifying with a party unless it is the extreme (far left or far right). We talk about reform in health care, but what is needed is reform in Congress. The corruption and payoffs are legalized by Congress themselves -- the Mafia would be proud of such power. Middle class is not represented anymore. What is represented is special interest groups and those who make large donations to the corrupted Representatives who pass laws that favor the rich while ignoring what is best for the country and the vast majority of Americans. We need reform and a good place to start is to make it illegal for special interest groups or lobbyists to represent the interests of large corporations in DC. For any other job in this country, it would be a conflict or interest for a representative to take such payoffs and in turn do favors for that business. Meanwhile, Representatives lie to middle class Americans to get their vote but when it comes time to pass laws, it is the lobbyists and special interest groups who provide our crooked lawmakers the talking points so laws favor the wealthy and privileged in this country. When will middle class stop being divided by Party lies and come together to throw out all the bums no matter what party they are in.

Last week, Rush Limbaugh was rushed to a hospital while vacationing in Hawaii after complaining of chest pains. Shortly after being released from Queen’s Medical Center in Honolulu, Limbaugh said his doctors didn’t know what caused his symptoms, and he praised the U.S. health care system based on his experience at the hospital:

“The treatment I received here was the best that the world has to offer,” Limbaugh said. “Based on what happened here to me, I don’t think there’s one thing wrong with the American health care system. It is working just fine, just dandy.”

ThinkProgress noted that it was odd that Limbaugh would cite his experience in Hawaii given that the state has previously passed a measure mandating that employers cover full-time employees, a provision that is similar to those being considered in Congress as part of comprehensive health care reform. SEIU’s blog notes that some of the health care reform measures before Congress wouldn’t even affect Hawaii:

In fact, Hawaii is so forward-thinking that the Senate bill excludes Hawaii from some of its provisions, because Hawaii’s requirements on employers go farther than the federal legislation.

But most interestingly, SEIU’s also points out that Queen’s Medical Center’s nursing staff are represented by the Hawaii Nurses’ Association union and that “Hawaii has one of the greatest percentages of organized workers of any state and also had the highest percentage of organized RNs.”

More and more people are not identifying with a party unless it is the extreme (far left or far right). We talk about reform in health care, but what is needed is reform in Congress. The corruption and payoffs are legalized by Congress themselves -- the Mafia would be proud of such power. Middle class is not represented anymore. What is represented is special interest groups and those who make large donations to the corrupted Representatives who pass laws that favor the rich while ignoring what is best for the country and the vast majority of Americans. We need reform and a good place to start is to make it illegal for special interest groups or lobbyists to represent the interests of large corporations in DC. For any other job in this country, it would be a conflict or interest for a representative to take such payoffs and in turn do favors for that business. Meanwhile, Representatives lie to middle class Americans to get their vote but when it comes time to pass laws, it is the lobbyists and special interest groups who provide our crooked lawmakers the talking points so laws favor the wealthy and privileged in this country. When will middle class stop being divided by Party lies and come together to throw out all the bums no matter what party they are in.

In looking at all these seats, it looks like there are three seats in each party that look strongly vulnerable. It looks like retirements hurting Democrats is a non story. Thanks, CC, for providing as the late Paul Harvey would, the rest of the story.

MN District 6 is pretty much the suburban north of the Twin Cities--it's a mirror image of District 2, which carves out the south. If there's relative inflow into the Twin Cities, one might look at combining 1, 7, and 8 into 2 districts. Assuming that Districts 3, 4, and 5 (Mpls, suburban Mpls, and St. Paul) hold up, I don't see 2 or 6 getting the boot.

If the Democrats are going to escape the "tax and spend" charge because they refuse to tax the rich for HC reform they are sadly mistaken. Taxing health care benefits for union HC benefits is just nuts and will only fuel the ire of Democrats who feel they have been screwed by the demise of the public option.

It is urgent that the press remain our unnamed co conspirator this year. If the news of all of obama's missteps gets played up, the voters might decide that competence and experience IS important after all. And where would that leave us?

Posted by: Moonbat | January 4, 2010 3:20 PM
==================================
Yeah the media's totally reverse coverage of Obama compared to Bush is appalling. REAL journalists must be ashamed at the sham American journalism has become.

It's pretty sad when I have to go to foreign news sources to get a balanced view of America's events.

It is urgent that the press remain our unnamed co conspirator this year. If the news of all of obama's missteps gets played up, the voters might decide that competence and experience IS important after all. And where would that leave us?

Ousted Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) will return to the spotlight in March when he joins this season's cast of "Celebrity Apprentice," the NBC reality show created by Donald Trump.

Blagojevich -- forced out of the governor's mansion last year for allegedly trying to barter off President Barack Obama's open Senate seat -- will join 13 other contestants on the show, including comedian-actor Sinbad, former Rock of Love star Bret Michaels and former baseball player Darryl Strawberry.

...note to Emanuel and Axelrod- if this Whitehouse gig doesn't work out as planned, your old pal Blago says "sometimes real opportunities develop in your life's journey that you can't really see when you're facing tumultuous times ..."

"After saying the president was "downplaying" security, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) now says Barack Obama is using "the right approach" in fighting terror.

“Instead of focusing on the blame right now, the president seems to be on the right approach," he said on MSNBC. "He’s recognizing we’ve got a terror problem. What he is doing in Yemen is good.”

One of the president's other main critics, House Intelligence Committee ranking member Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.), also indicated that he is now satisfied with the administration's response to the failed attack."

Wonder if they realized that playing politics with terrorism wasn't playing well with the american people?

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 1:21 PM
==============================
Democrats are the ones trying to play politics with terrorism (or is it man made disasters I guess polls showed democrats looked like fools for pushing that).

They sat on a nominee for 8 months for the TSA and are trying to shoehorn in a perjuring candidate with no debate to unionize the TSA (political purposes).

People across party lines don't think that unionizing the TSA is a good idea.

By the way obstructionism is a good thing when it serves the will of the people. Republicans can look to less voter turnout if they don't object to something the majority of Americans disagree with.

Nice talking points though just close your eyes and repeat I'm sure you'll convince a few more young, naive liberals.

No one really knows what is going to happen in the next ten months so all this hypothesizing is just that, hypothesizing. The real point is that most citizens are frustrated and angry at both parties.
-----------------------

Couldn't say this any better myself.

The sooner more people realize that the far left and the far right are bad for this country the faster we can get this country back on the track that the founding fathers set for us.

Posted by: drindl
"yes, bsimon, that's wht I'm talking about.
How much support can Hate Radio and Fox give to *specific* teabaggers without violating FCC rules?"

The problem is how would the FCC track the amount of free time a candidate receives on radio or television. Would a 5:00 news story receive the same weight as a talk show host extolling the wonderful attributes of a candidate?

'It's ironic that a Minnesota member of Congress, Republican Michele Bachmann, went so far last summer to declare her intention to only partially complete her census forms, and to suggest reasons for others not to comply with the census law. If Minnesota loses a congressional seat, Bachmann's populous Sixth District could be carved into pieces. She likely would have to battle another incumbent to hang on to her seat. We've noticed that her anticensus rhetoric has lately ceased. We hope she got wise: Census compliance is not only in Minnesota's best interest, but also her own.'

The really fun fact, as I've learned from Minnesota experts, is that Bachmann's district would likely be the first to go if the state lost a seat. The other seats are all fairly regular-shaped, logical districts built around identifiable regions of the state (Minneapolis, St. Paul, the Iron Range, and so on). Bachmann's district is made of what's left over after such a process, twisting and turning from a small strip of the Wisconsin border and curving deep into the middle of the state. As such, the obvious course of action if the state loses a seat is to split her district up among its neighbors.

"Wonder if [DeMint and Hoekstra] realized that playing politics with terrorism wasn't playing well with the American people?"

Answer:

Yes. Fragging the Commander in the aftermath of an attack is terrible politics. They probably thought is was ok to savage Obama precisely because no one got hurt (except the would be assassin, which is a word with an interesting and oddly relevant history by the way).

Assessing the politics of the Detroit attack was an earlier string topic though. As many said then, as soon as they realize they had no traction, it would vanish from the R's talking points.

'Allen Quist, a Republican candidate seeking the nomination to go up against Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN), has made a serious pronouncement: That the political battle against the Democrats is the defining fight of this generation, even greater than the fight against terrorism.

"It's because I, like you, have seen that our country is being destroyed. I mean, this is -- every generation has had to fight the fight for freedom. This is our fight. And this is our time. This is it. Terrorism, yes -- but that's not the big battle. The big battle is in D.C., with the radicals. They aren't liberals, they're radicals. Obama, Pelosi, Walz -- they're not liberals, they're radicals. They are destroying our country. "

Wtf, eh? This is how seriously unhinged teabaggers have become. Maybe we should ask most voters, Who are you more afraid of getting a plane with? 50% of your country's population, or a guy with a bomb?

It is the economy. Graph unemployment against Democratic polling numbers and presidential approval numbers and observe the inverse relationship. When, as looks increasingly likely, unemployment starts coming down and jobs are added, the inverse relationship will hold. Add to that the fact that Republicans do not have the money to run a national campaign. If unemployment is below 8% by next June and the Republicans fundraising remains at the low levels it currently stands, I think Democrats retain the majority by a large margin.

"Former Sen Lincoln Chafee is entering the RI Gov's race as an independent."

I see the Post has picked up an AP story that says the only Repub who's announced for the race thus far has dropped out, leaving Chafee vs a couple Dems who are having a primary battle. Apparently the GOP wants the guy that Chafee beat in the GOP primary for Senate in 2006 to run for Gov. Dare I say NY-23 is going viral?

parkerfl1 writes
"The resurgence of the Republican Party has been greatly exaggerated. They are not out of the proverbial woods regarding Congress yet."

Why limit the observation to Congress? I see in the headlines today that former Sen Lincoln Chafee is entering the RI Gov's race as an independent. Do we have any Rhodies here who can give us the background on that race?

yes, state laws would come into play on donation reporting, in which, one would have to comply.
I was talking more in the federal ballpark.
States have the right to track in a more specific way if desired.

It's also "soft money". Wasn't the McCain-Feingold bill all about that too? Too much donation money falling through the cracks (donations to political parties).

Republicans will definitely have the advantage.
1) They can brag about being the party of "HECK NO!" and darn proud of it, anything to make Obama fail.
2) They can run on Anti-affordable health care with NO!, and proud of it, alternative plan.
3) Of course anti-stimulus. Who needs infrastructure or jobs. Pawlenty will be there to campaign with them.
4) Demint will run on "I kept the TSA from unionization" Do you feel safer with H.S. dropouts screening passengers and bags?
5)More tax cuts and borrowing from China to pay for them and Heck Yes! trickledown works! Don't you feel it working!

TheBabeNemo writes
"An "in kind" donation is one that is under the radar of the tax code, whereby, reporting it does not matter. They would like you to believe that it is a "matching donation"...someone put up money and you matched. But it really is to avoid reporting to the IRS."

I think its more complicated than that, and heavily dependent on state laws. In MN, in-kind donations have to be tracked; i.e. if you are a caterer & donate food to a political event it is counted as a donation, with a dollar value. That is not true in all states.

An "in kind" donation is one that is under the radar of the tax code, whereby, reporting it does not matter. They would like you to believe that it is a "matching donation"...someone put up money and you matched. But it really is to avoid reporting to the IRS.

"I will give you this money, but it's less than you expected, because I had to keep the donation under the cap."

"After saying the president was "downplaying" security, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) now says Barack Obama is using "the right approach" in fighting terror.

“Instead of focusing on the blame right now, the president seems to be on the right approach," he said on MSNBC. "He’s recognizing we’ve got a terror problem. What he is doing in Yemen is good.”

One of the president's other main critics, House Intelligence Committee ranking member Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.), also indicated that he is now satisfied with the administration's response to the failed attack."

Wonder if they realized that playing politics with terrorism wasn't playing well with the american people?

Reason5, good to see you back. I have to disagree with the possibility of a Republican majority in the House. They will certainly make gains. But unlike 1994, they have no coherent view. As cheesey as the "Contract with America" was, it had a clear political point of view and a direction. The Republican party has no clear view. They only coherent message is "No" to anything that has a "D" next to it. That will certianly be enough to win conservative disticts that Obama may have helped "Ds" carry in 2008, but it will not be enough for a landslide. Barring something unforeseen (e.g. A successful terrorist attack or a major economic recovery), it would seem to me that Democrats would be thrilled to keep the losses in the 12-15 range. Under 10 would be a major victory. Over 20, a casue for concern, perhpas great concern depending on how many over 20 and where they are.
I do agree the Rs are looking good at the state level in many areas, but they are going to lose some as well.
If the younger Biden does not make up his mind soon, Delware will have a Republican Senator. If Biden is in, they still might, but it will be a fun race to watch.

Nate Silver had a very interesting column on Democrats who are the most and least valuable to their party. He bases this off how much each Democrats vote with the party in relation to how much a typical Congressman from that district would vote with the Democrats.

Parker Griffith actually is third on the list of least valuable Dems. (Artur Davis tops it) Griffith certainly hasn't been doing any favors for his party and has opposed pretty every platform position of the Dems.

reason5 writes
"Republicans will gladly exchange Delawares at large House seat for Bidens US Senate seat. I think Republicans have the momentum and will win a large number of House seats, maybe even the majority."

On the GOP momentum, I remain skeptical. They're going to have to come up with something better than 'no taxes, ever' if they want to appear credible to swing voters. Dems retiring or choosing not to run for open seats in the face of this GOP 'wave' are going to be kicking themselves by November.

Republicans better figure out what their political meal ticket is supposed to be pretty soon. I don't think a guy who fried his junk with an underwear bomb is going to terrify enough Americans long enough to hold up against an economy on the rebound.
American manufacturing up five months in a row? Good news for American workers is bad news for Republican candidates.

I really cannot believe that the people of the United States want to see their government come to a complete halt. If Republicans regain the majority, that is EXACTLY what will happen. They are very nearly succeeding in that right now.

"As we start ramping up our 2010 election coverage, we're paying close attention to races where Republicans have an intra-party conflict pitting somewhat moderate GOPers against the Tea Party/Club for Growth right.

Virginia's 5th CD is shaping up as a really good example. There State Senator Robert Hurt (R-VA) just got religion and signed Grover Norquist's anti-tax pledge to shore up his right, despite the fact that Hurt was once one of Norquist's targeted 'moderates'.

As we've been reporting, this district could be the next NY-23, with the candidates attempting to out-conservative one another and even talk radio's Laura Ingraham getting involved."

Does anyone know what would constitute an 'in-kind' donation in terms of all the free media that Hate Radio hosts lavish on radical right candidates? Why does the FCC not step in here? This sounds like a clear violation.

But this primary challenge to moderates in moderate districts from unelectable far rightwingers is the wave building and the pattern that the Beltway Bubblers don't see coming. This is what will keep the gop from making major gains this year -- their own Fifth Column.

so am i correct in assuming that the retirees are all the "old guys"??

good. get some of these bowties and old school greatest generationers outta here.
i'm sorry - but that's the way i feel.
It's over, your time was then, this is now. Your morays don't hold water. I don't want to be pregnant and barefoot in the kitchen like your old school ways say.......among other "values" of right and wrong.

take a hike and take john mccain with you.
even if the one elected is of the terrible "other party" - at least they will be of a generation that can relate.

Republicans will gladly exchange Delawares at large House seat for Bidens US Senate seat. I think Republicans have the momentum and will win a large number of House seats, maybe even the majority. Republicans are in an extremely good spot to win a group of Governor's seats. 2010 should be a great year for Republicans.

Seems like it will all even out in the end. The Republican National Committee is having a problem raising money whereas the Democratic Committee has a nice nest egg. Why is that???
No one really knows what is going to happen in the next ten months so all this hypothesizing is just that, hypothesizing. The real point is that most citizens are frustrated and angry at both parties.

Seems like it will all even out in the end. The Republican National Committee is having a problem raising money whereas the Democratic Committee has a nice nest egg. Why is that???
No one really knows what is going to happen in the next ten months so all this hypothesizing is just that, hypothesizing. The real point is that most citizens are frustrated and angry at both parties.

"And, if so, do they set off a wave of retirements that turns what looked like a traditional midterm cycle for Democrats -- with losses in the 20-25 seat range -- into one in which control of the House is up for grabs?"

"Are [Democrats] likely headed to double-digit losses come November? Yes. But, talk of a switch in House control is, at least at this point, premature."

Well wasn't it premature a few hours ago?
Chris, yes, this is an election year. More fun for all of us. But lets not get all breathless about major shifts in political gravity. 2016 isn't that far off. Cheers.

Chris, I must say you look marvelous on t.v.. You were great on the panel. You have dimples I never knew you had!!!!

Repulsives all over have been crying "wait till mid term elections, we'll get it all back."
That has been their mantra for 2 months now and they will carry that throughout 2010. Make ya gag for the next 10 months.

But to me personally - bunch of party line bull again. From the city council person in your city - all the way to Washington senators; we go to polls to vote for people that we believe will help "we the people"---that will look to their backyard first, then Washington.

It's the people they represent that takes priority - not "let's get majority in House and Senate".

Good example is-currenty- every Republican, no matter what bill is flying on the floor, is automatically voting NO - because it's a vote against Obama and his administration. Betcha they do NOT read the bills because they are already a NO---but based on the wrong reason.