Trump well out ahead in new N.H. poll

Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over his Republican rivals in New Hampshire, according to a Suffolk University poll of likely GOP primary voters out Thursday.

The billionaire businessman led the way with support from 27 percent of likely voters, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who are both at 12 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is at 11 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is at 10 percent and the rest are in single digits with 12 percent still undecided before the Feb. 9 primary.

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“More than a quarter of New Hampshire’s GOP voters are loyal to Donald Trump,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “That 27 percent isn’t a skyscraper, but it towers over the four candidates vying for second place. However, a surprise win from a second-tier candidate in Iowa could create the momentum needed to break into the twenty percent range in New Hampshire. If there are no surprises in Iowa, the undecided voters will be divided, and Trump will prevail.”

Four in 10 voters said Trump has the best chance to defeat the Democratic nominee.

In a three-way general election between Trump, Hillary Clinton and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is exploring a potential independent bid, 63 percent of Republicans said they would back Trump, compared to 10 percent who said they would vote for Clinton and another 10 percent for Bloomberg, with 14 percent undecided. In a similar scenario swapping Clinton for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 57 percent said they would vote for Trump, 18 percent for Sanders and 9 percent for Bloomberg with 13 percent undecided.

Terrorism and national security remain the top issues for likely Republican primary voters, followed by jobs and the economy and illegal immigration.

The survey of 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted Jan. 25-27 using live telephone interviews and a split sample of landline and cellphone numbers. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.