450
FXUS64 KMAF 251216
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
.UPDATE...
Removed pops this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The snow has all but completely ended across the area this
morning. Issued a quick update to take it out of the forecast...
still on track for a warm and sunny day today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Light snow and low ceilings will move out of the area over the next
couple of hours. Winds will mostly be out of the west with stronger
winds occurring during the afternoon hours. A cold front with
northerly winds will begin moving through the area around 04z. Some
gusts and low ceilings will be possible behind this front,
especially toward 12z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Active and wet wx pattern looks to continue through the weekend into
next week with lots of small precip events. A strong upper low
moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east
putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a
and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the
country. This trough will continue to rotate shortwaves down into
the area next couple of days. By Friday a strong upper trough will
start to work down the West Coast moving over the Great Basin by
Sunday and over AZ on Monday. This will put the area into SW flow
aloft and allow any disturbance ejected ahead of the trough to track
into the region. This trough should move into the area early
Tuesday. And after that trough passes another one follows it up.
So will have an extended period of low unsettled wx.
It will be much warmer today with lots of sunshine and a warm west
wind that will push temps into the 60s. Normal for this time of
year is hi 65 lo 37. Warm up will be short lived as another cold
front arrives overnight knocking highs back into the 40s for
Thursday with a chilly north wind sweeping across the region.
Friday will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s as an east/upslope
wind remains across the area through the day and with a good chance
of precip look for clouds to remain through the day. By Saturday a
south wind starts to return and temps begin to recover. The warm up
continues Sunday with highs returning to the 60s and 70s. These
warmer temps will continue into the middle of next week.
As of 09z the upper low can be seen on WV moving across W TX.
Currently have precip that is mainly snow with a little rain mixed
in rotating around this low and moving across the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Not sure if this will be out of the area by 12z so
will go ahead and add a mention of light rain/snow this morning
across the Central and Eastern Permian Basin. Not expecting much if
any accumulation as too warm but at 945z is coming down fairly hard
at MAF. Will have a slight chance of rain/snow over SE NM Thursday
with light snow chances spreading east across the area Thursday
night. Friday looks to be the best chance of precip for much of
the area with most of it as snow with some mixed precip on the
southern edges. Currently only have accumulations up to an inch.
Low chances of precip skirting mainly the eastern part of the area
continue into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 60 30 39 19 / 10 0 10 20
BIG SPRING TX 62 31 40 20 / 10 0 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 62 33 41 21 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 69 38 51 30 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 65 32 44 24 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 55 29 40 20 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS NM 59 29 37 18 / 0 10 10 20
MARFA TX 64 28 47 21 / 0 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 31 40 21 / 10 0 10 20
ODESSA TX 61 32 41 21 / 10 0 10 20
WINK TX 64 33 44 24 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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