The Chicago Fed’s Midwest Manufacturing Index in October recorded its first monthly decline since March of this year. While October’s decline (-0.4%, s.a.) was far less severe than in March (-2.7%), the cause could largely be traced to a similar source—a strike against an auto company that closed critical parts plants. The impact of that strike can be clearly seen in an 8% decline in auto assemblies in October. With the effects of the strike spilling over into November, the possibility of another manufacturing output decline in November cannot be ruled out.