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Trends Show Vaping To Overcome Traditional Smoking in Near Future

Posted by Jeff Lee on Dec 21, 2015

A just released Gallup poll, as well as a recently published Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report, examined recent trends in cigarette smoking. The results of the analysis can be interpreted as showing that vaping and e-cigarettes will eventually totally replace traditional cigarette smoking.

A little more than a month ago the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released data that showed that vaping and e-cigarette use is showing unprecedented growth. The Gallup poll backs up those results.

To come to the conclusion that vaping and e-cigarette use will eventually overtake traditional cigarette smoking, I’ve keyed in on salient segments extracted from the reports.

For vaping to overcome traditional cigarettes, I looked at trends from those reports that focused in on teenage dynamics.

Data from this past April showed that regular cigarette smoking is continuing to fall among high school students while e-cigarette and vaping use was increasing. To reinforce the statement, 9.2 percent of high school students said they had smoked a traditional tobacco cigarette in the last month. This produced a reduction of 3.5 percent from a study done in 2013.

Over that same one month period, students who reported using e-cigarettes increased from 4.5 percent in the 2013 study to 13.4 percent today.

The CDC report has revealed that among young adults from 18 to 24, 5.1 percent were regular vapers, with the rate decreasing to 4.7 percent in the middle-aged population, 25 to 44. Among the total population of the United States, about 12.6 percent have tried an e-cigarette at least once while 3.7 are regular users.

The CDC report has blown away one of the central planks of anti-vaping activists. A mantra of these activists is that e-cigs and vaping serve as a gateway to eventually turning to traditional tobacco cigarettes. There is no indication that this is actually happening or a trend to follow.

In addition to these surveys, I see specific anecdotal trend in young vapers that show that the perception is that vaping is safer, more pleasant tasting and less habit forming than traditional cigarettes. E-cigs, vaping pens and juices are also viewed as more affordable. The enjoyment of vaping comes nowhere close to the ever growing cost of tobacco as increased taxation continues to make a pack of cigarettes a costly investment.

In my estimation of the analysis, teenage use of vaping will increase, and as older traditional smokers start to disappear, vaping will begin to dominate the market.

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