Outlier or Indicator? (Warriors 92, Knicks 63)

The Warriors’ 92-63 obliteration of the Knicks on Monday night was just the type of win they needed to shake them from their recent funk. The next week will tell whether it was just a lucky match-up against a flat New York squad or the first glimpse of better things to come. Those searching for positives to wipe away the memory of the recent listless losses will find plenty of reasons for optimism in this win.

The Amare-less Knicks — slowed by age, offensively focused on a single player and content to launch threes rather than probe the interior defense — are a nice match-up for the Warriors. Monday’s blowout was a product of two reinforcing trends, poor Knicks shooting and aggressive Warriors offense. The Knicks shot miserably, particularly from behind the arc where they were 5-27 (18.5%). The Warriors capitalized on having both Lee and Bogut in the middle by controlling the boards and initiating fast breaks. The resulting transition offense dramatically favored the Warriors (14-2), with the team using the open space created by the break to feed its most efficient shooters, Curry and Thompson. Factor in some beautiful half-court passes by Lee, and you have one of the more decisive Warriors wins of the year.

Was the Warriors’ team defense as dramatically improved as the numbers would suggest? Hard to tell, although Klay Thompson deserves credit for playing some tremendous one-on-one defense against Anthony. With Carmelo locked up with single coverage, the rest of the Warriors were free to focus on their own men. They still gave the Knicks too many open looks from behind the arc — which the Knicks fortunately missed — but on the whole there were fewer breakdowns than in the past few games.

At both ends of the court, one line-up stood out as particularly dominant. And it’s the right group to be developing some chemistry as the final playoff push begins. Curry/Jack/Thompson/Lee/Bogut only played roughly 10 minutes together, but delivered a crushing +21 rating. For a few minutes in the second quarter, Warriors fans finally got a taste of how all the skills and basketball IQ in that five-man unit could mesh into a singular fluid beast. Lee and Bogut shut down the paint, owned the glass and attacked the basket at the other end. The ball zipped around unselfishly to the open shooters. Jack helped orchestrate it all but didn’t force the issue with his own shots. Most of all, it looked like a line-up that understood its strengths and played to them. Before Monday, the line-up had only played less than two full games — 79 minutes — on the court together. My guess is we’ll be seeing a lot more of it over the next month.

Despite being a quality team win, a few individual performances stood out:

David Lee — A little rest and a grudge match against his own team did wonders for Lee’s performance. It was his best all-around game since the All Star break. He was absolutely dominant on offense, orchestrating the Warriors’ outside shots one moment, then penetrating against the slower Knicks the next. The Warriors clearly missed Lee’s presence against Milwaukee, as much as a passer as a scorer. He helps Curry and Thompson get quality looks at the basket — crucial for a team lacking a guy who can consistently create his own shot. On defense, the absence of any real post presence (besides Anthony) allowed Lee to help and rotate without giving up easy baskets. Still, when the ball came inside to Kenyon Martin, Lee did a decent job of keeping him from any easy looks. I’m still a bit perplexed that Mark Jackson would run a guy on a still sore knee for 38 minutes in a nearly 30-point blowout, but Lee made the most of the opportunity.

Klay Thompson — Like Lee, Thompson had one of his better all-around games of the season. His savvy defense on Anthony was a big reason the Knicks’ star went 4-15. Thompson never gave him room to get comfortable but didn’t over-commit, allowing him easy points from the line. Thompson’s height is no doubt an advantage in match-ups like this, but he’s also demonstrating that he’s getting stronger in his sophomore season. Anthony often muscles through guys in the post, but Thompson did a nice job holding his ground. Offensively, Thompson showed a lot more diversity than we’ve seen so far this season. He hit his fair share of threes, but also penetrated and even posted up once. The more ways Thompson can score, the less susceptible he’ll be to the scoring dry spells that have plagued him at times this season.

Harrison Barnes — Not settling for jump shots often produces unexpected returns. For Barnes on Monday, the surprise benefit of attacking JR Smith in the post was an ejection of the mercurial Knicks’ forward following a two-armed rake across Barnes’ body on penetration. Without Smith, the Knicks lacked the fire power to make a major run against the Warriors. We’ve seen these moves before from Barnes. They’re tantalizing because they’re exactly the type of multidimensional look the team needs on offense. But the struggle has been predicting when Barnes will go up strong — as he did against Rudy Gay, for example — and when he’ll just settle for jumpers. Other than a full-speed Bogut, the biggest wild card for the Warriors over the remainder of this year is whether Barnes can shake off rookie inconsistency and become a steady contributor. If he can string together a few games like this one, it’ll be found money for the team.

Stephen Curry — For a few minutes in the first quarter, it looked as if Curry was ready to challenge his record-setting night in the Garden. He cooled off a bit as the game went on, but had one of those quietly masterful performances that are easy to take for granted. He knocked down a bunch of open looks, helped initiate the offense with his probing penetration (Lee often got the assist, but Curry was the one sucking the defense one way or another before swinging the ball back up top to Lee for additional distribution). He did a beautiful job integrating his game with his teammates, working the ball around to get others involved even when he had the hot hand. That unselfishness directly contributed to big nights for both Thompson and Lee — a depth of offensive power missing when the Warriors lost in New York last month.

Andrew Bogut — Maybe it’s lowered expectations, but each game where Bogut looks a little lighter on his feet than the game before feels like a victory. He showed nice mobility Monday against Tyson Chandler and had decent success putting the ball on the floor. But any offense from Bogut is gravy. He was masterful at his two primary assignments — defend and rebound — and helped ensure that the Warriors wouldn’t let the Knicks back into the game with easy buckets or second-chance points. Fingers crossed, Bogut finally looks like he’s getting comfortable on the court with his new teammates and his own body.

While the Warriors won Monday in decisive fashion, they still have a stretch of potentially dangerous games ahead of them. The worst case scenario is that self-satisfaction with a one-off performance leads to a disengaged effort this Wednesday against the lowly Pistons. It’ll be up to Jackson to keep the team focused. The Warriors did a few things really well against the Knicks — controlling the glass, initiating the break, finding the right shooters — that can serve as foundations for the games to come. There’s still plenty of room for improvement. But for a team that looked completely gassed a few days ago, this win was a nice reminder that they still have some fight left in them.

Adam Lauridsen

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“For THAT team to be 36-29, a team with a -0.5 point differential for the season, well it is quite a miracle.”

Good post. For this team for all the reasons you mentioned plus injuries to Bogut and Rush to win 45 games is a great success, never mind we won 45+ games only once in like 17+ years and made playoffs only once in the same span. We have to love everything about dubs this year, unless otherwise you are not warriors fan !!

believewhat

dr.,

“And in that rotation I think his best natural offensive position is as an initiator, similar to Harden.”

Since you gave permission for laughs with this comment, lol, didn’t some of us say same thing about Reggie Williams.

believewhat

dr.,

To clarify, anyway you look at it, Bazelmore should be in rotation either to keep Klay’s minutes to efficient self, instead of Jefferson or even in place of Green when team goes against fast SFs. So, in short, I am with you that Bazelmore should play, he is giving like 1 steal every 2 mins, in 10 mins a game, he can make an impact.

moto

(149,150) the truth in these assertions could easily support a projection that the team will actually have a worse record next year. competing teams in the west will for the most part be more capable of improvement (yes rush returns, but Min gets love, UT gets an extra first round pick…) than the lacobites. the team has limited options in a secondary ball handler to counter the blitz/gang defenses on curry [why losing jack and replacing him with a better distributor who can defend well would be a plus]. rookies do not invariably improve in their second season, and the preacher might have easily reached the limit of his incompetence.

did adonal foyle’s hands ever improve significantly ? no assurance that ezeli’s will. did richardson or pietrus improve their ball handling much ? of course we won’t know until we see what time and competition bring, but the material just isn’t there for any but modest expectations.

high dribble dribble

believewhat — you always write Bazemore’s more name with an added “l”
(bazelmore) — do you know something we don’t?

high dribble dribble

moto – from watching the games I think Ezeli has improved a lot recently in catching passes

he still has clear issues with guards slapping it away from him and trying to finish in traffic against other bigs after an offensive rebound — I’m optimistic that he’ll be much better than Foyle

Hate to be an alarmist but i find it extremely curious that the warriors haven’t scored more than 95pts the past four games. For a team that ranks among the highest in offence league wide, this offensive slump needs to be addressed.
Considering we aren’t exactly overwhelming any team with our stellar defence, MJax and his staff need to devise a plan to put more points on the board before we regret it. We may get away with Detroit and the Bulls but you ain’t winning against the Rockets, the spurs or any other team in the league if you can’t score.

believewhat

thanks HDD, I didn’t realize I was misspelling Bazemore’s name like that 🙂

moto

(157) love is probably another overrated-by-flashy stats kind of player, a precursor to b.griffin in a way, but my point was he probably makes Min stronger if they get a full season of rubio’s health. adding boards and three point shooting in one body usually doesn’t hurt.

(156) ezeli’s big edge over foyle is quickness and speed, but the league’s bigs are by and large quicker now than fifteen years ago. a discouraging sign in the NY romp was the difference between chandler, one of the slower guys at his position, and bogut in getting up and down the court.

Zume

quick find a wall to get behind –
hit the ground –
safe

Our Team

moto, I respectfully disagree with your post 154. Of course, it is possible that Bogut won’t be stronger and regain his former offensive acumen last year, it’s possible Barnes won’t improve, that Thompson won’t improve, that Ezeli won’t improve, that Green won’t improve his outside shot. Anything’s possible. However, it is more likely than not that several of those players will see significant improvement in their games next season and the others at least minor improvement. These are all players who work hard on their games and most of them are very intelligent. This is not Anthony Randolph.

Ezeli’s hand coordination won’t improve but his understanding of the game will, and he’s already showing in the last two weeks that he can catch the ball and shoot it from short distance–he needs to learn to go up for the quick shot rather than gather himself first for a power slam. Ezeli doesn’t have great hands but they are adequate–his lack of bball knowledge around the basket made his hands look worse than they are. He doesn’t need to become an offensive force (and won’t) for his improved play to greatly help the Warriors next year. He’s already helping much more the past two weeks.

Bogut and Barnes will be the big difference-makers next year imo. A healthy, strong and integrated Bogut will be a huge plus. And they don’t need Barnes to be a star, just to be more aggressive to the basket and more experienced on O and D. Barnes is going to improve next year–there is no question about that. We can debate how much he will improve.

believewhat

Tired,

“Who thinks kevin love is a great player?”

You know what I think as I have posted in length about it 🙂 Just so to say it again, I think Kevin Love is a great player already and will be top 3 NBA players in one to three years and he is only 24 years old. How many guys did we see in history of NBA capable of averaging 25pts, 15 rebs and 40%3FG. He also goes to the line like 8 times.

Zume

wow, did not know that about Kevin Love – good one

deano

If they are both healthy, Love is better than Lee; and I like Lee. He has shown that he is a reliably good PF, and is fully worth his salary, the last two seasons. IMO, Love does everything Lee does, but just a little bit better.

As for Jack and Landry, I think that the former is a keeper. Until he was injured, Jack was our MVP at guard. He gives us a toughness and a combination of abilities that we do not get from Klay and Curry; and, the three of them play very well together. I say keep them together.

Landry is a tougher, shorter Lee, without Lee’s playmaking abilities. I like Landry, too, but we can find a better back-up to Lee. I would like to see Myers go after a bigger, more athletic player — a guy like Amir Johnson — who would bring something dramaticaly different from Lee.

moto

(163) yes the fans by consensus want barnes to be more aggressive going to the hoop. they won’t see the results they wish if he doesn’t get smarter about it and improves his ball security in traffic. yes, he could improve there, but neither is easy nor simple. the numbers expose the frequency of his turnovers and getting the shot blocked when he goes to the rim. improving on defense looks like a more realistic possibility. if his high lottery status were erased, a good role player who’s a plus perimeter defender certainly helps the team.

the numbers indicate that bogut’s shooting and scoring have not recovered after his arm/elbow were torn up. as bodies age they generally do no get quicker on damaged joints, either. improved conditioning and familiarity with ‘mates will help his performance, but regaining the upper tier of starting centers is a different matter.

believewhat

deano,

If we can keep both Landry and Jack, then it is no brainer. The problem is I don’t think we can keep them because of cap situation.

knick

With all the positive press Bazemore has received on this blog i was curious to see how he performed in the D league. 16pts and 11rebounds is nice, however shooting 1/7 3pt while committing 6 TO’s and fouling out in 33min isn’t a good sign. No wonder MJax isn’t too impressed with the rookie.

strummer

i kind of found it endearing, believewhat, your Bazelmore thang…

bryhsiao

Knick,
did you check his past 5 games in Dleague too before jumping to the conclusion on Bazemore?

bryhsiao

Anyone saw the Dleague game?

Hilton Armstrong
10-13FG 0-0 10-14FT +7 1 3 4 1 5 0 1 3 0 30 points

5th year guy somehow dropt out of NBA.
He seems to be able to score at will.
Maybe we should call him up too?

I thought the numbers showed that after the elbow Bogut’s FT% went way down and after the later surgery returned more or less to normal. That doesn’t say the elbow is definitely fine, but how else is there to judge it? And isn’t he leading the team in 3pt% at 100%?

moto

(176) RickP, yes, bogut’s free throw pct. has recovered but not his field goal shooting. he mashed his arm in the last month of the 2010 season with a .520 f.g.pct. that year. his season low previous to that, .511, his best was .577. he has not shot above .495 since his injury. earlier this year, he commented that his elbow was still not completely recovered but he was resolved to play through it.

I yiyi yi

Thanks for the links Steve

Chris L

Bry (64),

Re. your transcription of Lee’s interview…

That’s the single best W’s news I’ve heard in awhile — both in what it says about Lee himself and in what it says about Jackson directly addressing what I perceive as a core element of the W’s long slide (which hopefully is ending exactly now — in tandem with this re-commitment).

While, of course, it would be ideal to have true two-way stars as anchors of your team (Duncan, Jordan, Olajuwan, James, Kobe, etc), there are other ways to skin that cat (Bird, Magic, Dirk — under Avery and then Carlisle). In other words, while your stars don’t always have to be great individual defenders, what has to be a constant is those stars’ commitment and focus defensively. You need that commitment because (a) without it, you have a gaping hole in your defensive integrity as a team; and (b) if your offensive stars take a defensive hall-pass, you create a two-tier system: defensive drones, on one hand, and the concomitant lesson (cf. Monta) that if I just score enough, I’m self-excused from putting in the same effort defensively.

And that is letting the serpent into the garden — in terms of a team that wants to fully realize its potential.

I’ll quote your transcription of Lee’s comments once more. Again, best W’s news I’ve heard in a long while. Lee’s model for defensive effort and focus should be Larry Bird. Notice I said “effort,” not “ability.” Lee’s not going to morph into Serge Ibaka any more than Bird morphed defensively into McHale (or Magic into Michael Cooper or Dirk into Marion or Chandler). That’s not the point.

Lee’s focus has been exemplary in every way the past couple games.

”Coach came to me and wanted me to work on defense. He wants me to be the leader spending more energy and step up my defense.
And our team defense hasn’t been very good this year, the last 15 games defense hasn’t been the same as earlier in the season.

“Coach came to me saying he wanted me and Curry to be the leader in that category in playing with more energy and he thinks other guys will rally around that.

“We tried to do that last night. I am going to do the rest of that year. You heard it first here. The biggest thing is that I am going to try to be more active and really step up on defense. I believe this is going to make my game even stronger.”

Coltraning

Fellas-it’s the D league! Jeremy Tyler and Anthony Tolliver tore it up

Coltraning

@Chris L

Encomiums for dropping concomitant on the board;-)

Coltraning

Interesting thought. Almost none of the top offensive power forwards in the game today play good defense. Dirk, Blake Griffin, Kevin love, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Lee…and Zeebo is nothing special. Coincidence?

Willow

Bry

I went to a d league game against Maine a few weeks back and thought H. Armstrong looked pretty good.

Perhaps it’s the competition, but he actually looked skilled and smooth on offense.

admoney

Hey Steve

Thx for all the links — now more than ever, Fast Break is my portal to the Dubs online.

moto

anthony tolliver is part of the ongoing d.nelson legacy in the league. filling in for josh smith in the starting Atl line up, he contributed to their win over the dread purple gang tonight. the collaborative effort of Atl’s front line neutralized howard (bench contributions a factor, per usual against the reserve-thin bussies), and the home team out-rebounded the visitors.

nelliesbiggestfan

so now it’s Chris L making a direct connection between the warriors slide and david lee’s supposed slide on defense. Still nothing from him about curry stepping up his defense though, I guess guards can get shredded in Chris’ basketball world and it doesn’t matter.

And of course there’s the big problem on the warriors, the center position, which Chris L never addresses. With AB’s 9 mill, bogut’s 12 mill plus the Jefferson 10mill which was a sunk cost of that deal and ezeli’s 1 mill the w’s have 32 mil a yearl in salary dedicated to centers and still don’t have anybody at that position that can make a shot or a free throw.

But forget about all of that. this team wins when Lee decides to play defense and loses when he doesn’t, that about sums it up, right bry ? right Chris L ?

dr_john

Bogut does make a lot of good bounce passes.

sartre

Monroe can’t get anything going against Bogut.

sartre

Klank Thompson has wrestled control over Swish Thompson again.

dr_john

The often acerbic, usually perceptive Moto picks this game tonight to dedicate Atlanta’s win to Anthony Tolliver and the “ongoing d.nelson legacy in the league”.

Really? What a stretch. Why?

The stories in ATL this year are everything EXCEPT Tolliver. Even tonight.

24 minutes. Good for him. BFD. The “collaborative effort” was Petro and Horford mostly. But OK. Good game.

Smith and Pachulia were both out. No mention of Johnson, Korver, Jenkins. Just the “legacy”.

I’m not buying.

And I like the Tolliver story as much as anyone. The story here might be Kobe 11-33 as much as any.

The real story in ATL is that in spite of the ongoing Smith saga and lack of dependable PG health/play, Al Horford is having a LeBron-esque season .

Nelson is in the Hall. Let it go. Tolliver is not his hallmark anyway.

I yiyi yi

So why do we seem to play to competitions level? we should be killing this team but no

dr_john

Let’s give it up for Atl beating the Lakers as we watch the scoreboard the next couple weeks.

This cements the legacy of Dana Altman, U of Ore men’s coach and former Creighton coach of Anthony Tolliver and Kyle Korver.

What a nice play the dubs just ran for the Barnes dunk off of the Bogut pick and Lee pass!!

dr_john

Watching Bogut shoot FT’s pre game vs. Houston: horrible. Less than 40%, all short or wide. Clanksters.

Really needs a different FT coach than whoever was next to him that night.

Dubcakes

Curry is stroking it!

moto

(190) didn’t say tolliver was a special player, dr. the role players and journeymen who gained a toe hold in the league through nelson are part of his legacy. when tolliver found a job in Min after leaving oaktown he gave his coach kudos for seeing something in him. matt barnes is now part of one of the league’s best second units. the people who bring the games to life don’t have to be stars on play on championship rosters to matter.

dr_john

Ball movement is exemplary tonight.

dr_john

moto

That’s not just Nelson’s legacy. He does not own it. At all.

I get the rest.

dr_john

What a sloppy careless play to end the quarter.

Goofy stupid.

When will this stop? Making SURE at the expense of style points, just being certain on inbounds plays, just dumb jr. high school stuff.

Our Team

Harrison Barnes! … Can do this every game. Just a matter of time.

And Curry is electric!

sartre

Bogut has been a factor at both ends with his low post defense, rebounding, and passing.