POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHICS

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Last October, just prior to the presidential election, I made some predictions regarding the demographics of the voting public. More recently, I attended a presentation given by a statistician who waded through the election data in our area. Ultimately, I learned my predictions were correct, but in the process I also discovered several other factors I hadn’t considered.

According to the statistician, the president may have narrowly won Florida, but Republicans made some in-roads when you study the numbers. For example, more Republicans voted than Democrats in Pinellas County. This was in sharp contrast to 2008 where Democrats turned out in force. Not surprising, older people favored Romney, particularly white men. In contrast, younger people favored Obama, particularly women. Aside from the political parties, it was independent voters who carried the day for Obama; 61.4% to 32.28%. Translation: Republicans may have been successful in rallying the party faithful, but did a lousy job selling their message to people outside of their party. One factor the local GOP organizers had to contend with was a liberal media, including the local “Tampa Bay Times.”

Not surprising, southeastern Florida ultimately turned the tide for Obama, predominantly the Latino vote. This means Romney was unable to appeal to such voters, despite the popularity of Senator Rubio from that area. Perhaps if Rubio had been on the ticket as vice president, it might have been another story.

As for me, the most illuminating facts presented by the statistician regarded how votes were cast. There were three variables studied: absentee ballots, early voting, and voting at precincts on election day. Surprisingly, more ballots were cast by absentee as opposed to the other two. Whereas more Democratic voters submitted absentee ballots, more Republicans voted at their precincts on election day, and relatively few voted early. The Republicans may have won at the precincts, but lost simply because the Democrats made a concerted effort to have people vote by absentee ballot.

Plain and simply, the Obama organization ran a better campaign than the Romney team. One of their secrets was the Obama “app” which was used to monitor and track voter interests, thereby giving them the means to determine the hot buttons of the public with a high degree of precision. The Republicans simply had no such “app” and campaigned using older methods.

According to the statistics, I discovered the Florida race was a lot closer than I had heard through the media. True, the president won, but certainly not by a landslide. In fact, the difference was razor thin. Are the Republicans devastated by the defeat? Hardly. If anything, they learned a painful lesson about the tactics required for the next campaign in 2014.

Keep the Faith!

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“Your analogy fits if in fact everyone that voted did so “honestly,” and that the system was run effectively with integrity. Unfortunately this was not what took place in Ohio and I would venture to say has happened multiple times around the country where those in official positions use their positions to commit voter fraud. A poll worker by the name of Melowese Richardson unapologetically admitted to voting more than once for Obama, (could be as much as 6 times) in the 2012 election, and managed to get those voted counted.”

“It is painfully evident that races like this and others to follow have little to do with the actual issues. The power of opinion influencers and advancements in technology have completely changed the landscape. Most people instinctively know that polls are BS, yet they still believe them. Traditional media of the written press, radio and TV are now augmented by the ‘instant gratification’ of cellphone technology. “The medium is the message” where the medium is viral.”

“I’m sure the Republicans are already working on a GOP app for 2016. I hope so. I am surprised that the vote was so close, and that so many voted for Obama. Florida has such a large population of senior citizens and Catholics that I’d have expected a landslide GOP win. I guess the value of human life and freedom are no match for a free Obama phone and other handouts.”