Processing (Warriors 135, Sixers 114)

The Philadelphia 76ers have been “trusting the process” for years now, part of a now-legendary rebuild strategy espoused by now-deposed GM Sam Hinkie in an effort to accrue talent the new-fashioned way: by losing as many games as possible to improve odds in the draft lottery, and keeping payroll down so that talent can get paid. Now, the payoff for those years of ultimate suckage is finally at hand, with a deliciously young and modern core (Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Markelle Fultz, Robert Covington, Dario Saric) and some veteran leaders (JJ Redick and our good friend James Michael McAdoo, among others). Meanwhile, on the opposite coast, the Golden State Warriors’ process has been to reload from the top, using their cachet as a franchise and as a free agent destination and their owners’ deep pockets to bring on board known talents (Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, David West, Nick Young, Omri Casspi) and hot draft commodities (Pat McCaw, Jordan Bell). In a juicy matchup between two teams in very different stages of their development curves, the Warriors took the Sixers’ best punch and barely flinched, riding yet another dominant second half to win 135-114.

The Warriors opened the game with an injury scare, as Stephen Curry (sporting a new haircut, whose quality I leave as an exercise to the reader) tried to fight through a Ben Simmons screen and ended up taking a knee to his thigh. On the livestream I was watching in a car on the way to SF, I initially freaked out because it looked like knee-to-knee contact and Steph was clearly in obvious distress. Thankfully, it was only a thigh contusion, and despite receiving extra attention on his thigh throughout the evening Steph re-entered the fray shortly thereafter and remained in the game per his usual rotations until garbage time. It is worth mentioning that despite the Dubs’ depth across their entire roster, Curry remains the most impactful player on their roster and it isn’t even close. According to Basketball Reference (via The Ringer’s Paolo Uggetti), the Warriors are 32.4 (!!) points per 100 possessions better with Steph on the floor, which is over 10 points more than the difference in 2015-2016 when the Dubs torched the league and won 73 games. In short, Steph is irreplaceable, although I’m sure given Steve Kerr’s highly conservative approach to injuries early on this season, he won’t play on Monday night against the Magic.

With Steph slightly hobbled and Andre Iguodala being given the night off to rest, the Warriors were a little scattered rotation-wise early on in the game, and the Sixers were quick to pounce on the Dubs mistakes, of which there were quite a few. A number of possessions ended with Zaza Pachulia attempting a layup (which we might want to start calling Zaza-ups, although he did make a couple) or losing the ball, and the team-wide turnovers and quick shots gave the Sixers another huge advantage in field goals attempted in the first half. The Sixers, for their part, zipped the ball around the perimeter nicely and got good looks via a decidedly familiar outside-inside-outside scheme; Brett Brown is another Greg Popovich acolyte, after all! All that being said, despite the Warriors having just 12 assists to a fecally pungent 13 turnovers (the Sixers, in contrast, had 18 dimes to just 8 giveaways, which passes the eye test), the Dubs went into the half leading by 1, having taken the Sixers’ best punch and weathered the storm. Critical to that success was the play of Kevin Durant, who came back from his one game injury recuperation leave looking quite fresh and kept the Warriors afloat with his scoring and his defense. Anecdotally, it feels like there is no correlation with KD’s openness from beyond the arc and how likely it is for his shot to go in; he clanked some wiiiide open looks while some more contested attempts went down easily. I’d love to see some objective statistical analysis of this theory, as I remember having a similar feeling about Steph a couple of years ago but finding that the numbers didn’t back it up at all.

The third quarter brought with it the classic Warriors deluge, as a tight game was suddenly and irrevocably blown open. There is a feeling of inevitability around the Warriors, in that an opponent hanging with them is a somewhat temporary alignment that will soon be corrected by the Warriors uncorking a flurry that the opponent cannot withstand. My brother (who was at the game) confirmed that Oracle was just biding its time, waiting for the Warriors to punch the accelerator and pull away. After the score was knotted at 74, the scoring plays for the rest of the quarter were as follows:

Curry 2 FTs

Looney layup

Thompson 3

Durant dunk

Redick layup

Young 3

Durant jumper

Luwawu-Cabarrot 9-footer

Curry 3

Young 3

Embiid FTs

Looney dunk

Saric 3

Draymond layup

Embiid FTs

Young 3

That is a little over 2 scoring plays for the Dubs per Sixers basket, and a tie game turned into a 16 point advantage heading into the fourth quarter, essentially ending the game right then and there. The two sparkplugs of that flurry were Kevon Looney and Nick Young, both of whom were fantastic throughout the game. Looney has to be the Warriors’ most improved player by a mile, and it isn’t even close. In the first half, he picked up a glorious weakside block and tossed a quick outlet to get a Dubs fast break started. He ran a beautiful delayed pick-and-roll with Steph to get the above scoring flurry started, finishing with an athletic up-and-under move that was beyond his abilities in previous years. He racked up 2 more blocks (giving him 3 on the night), one on Redick and another on TJ McConnell inside. And to cap off his stint in the quarter, he executed another roll to the rim to perfection, receiving a pocket pass from Curry after he drew two defenders and finishing a two-handed slam with authority. For a guy who most folks (including myself) thought was likely to be riding pine for much of the season, Looney’s emergence as a defensive presence and an offensive threat is one of the more surprising outcomes of this young season. When you’re denying a massively talented rookie (Jordan Bell) minutes by virtue of your play…that really says something, both about Looney and the meritocratic nature of the Warriors. The Warriors’ big situation has gone from a big question mark to a very deep position of strength…between Zaza, West, Looney, Bell, McGee, there’s something for everyone! Want a grinder? Have a Zaza. Want a fulcrum in the high post with a reliable jumper? Have a West! Want a high-flying spark plug with a grab bag of surprising moves? Have a McGee! Want a developing youngster? Have Bell or Looney! What a story.

Nick Young’s emergence has been even more surprising, especially after the early season was not kind to Swaggy P. He’s suddenly emerged from the woodwork as Swaggy 3 and D, nailing 3 of his 4 attempts from behind the arc and accumulating 3 steals on the night. His movement off the ball, his defensive effort, and his curtailment of dribbling (trending towards Klay’s economical approach) all show a guy working his way towards the ideal player the coaching staff had in mind when they signed him. To me, the biggest sign of maturity was late in garbage time, when Young passed up a contested jumper to shuffle the ball to a cutting Javale McGee, all the while carrying a huge smile on his face. Again: what a story.

At the end of yet another blowout win, the Warriors were lifted by the aforementioned role players but anchored by the usual suspects: Curry (22 points, 9-9 from FT line, 9 assists, +29 in 30 minutes), Durant (29 points on 11-18 shooting, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, +24 in 28 minutes), and Thompson (23 points, 4-6 from behind the arc, 2 assists, +14 in 30 minutes). I’ve already exceeded 1300 words on this post, but a few remaining observations:

David West is still looking for a consistent cutting buddy, but he had 2 absolute gems last night. One was a frozen rope delivery to Klay Thompson under the basket, who finished and drew a foul; another was to a cutting Nick Young, who, if rotations align, could directly serve in the Ian Clark role.

JaVale McGee showed 5 different facets of his game last night. In the first quarter, his steal and subsequent fast break dunk off a McConnell pass demonstrated his insane athleticism. He later had a highly polished low-post move that demonstrated some pretty refined footwork. With the shot clock winding down, he elevated and tossed in a 10 foot hook shot. In the second half, he finished a Nick Young feed with a smooth up-and-under finish. And on the night, he made three of his free throws. McGee has shown immense restraint in his time with the Warriors, avoiding the “doing too much” plays that have plagued him in other stops around the league, but games like last night remind you just how much latent talent he possesses.

Steph’s one-handed passing nutmeg of Ben Simmons was a thing of beauty. If only Draymond had listened to CJ McCollum and done calf raises in the offseason…

Speaking of Draymond, his all-around brilliance is somehow both loud and soft. He’s always involved in something (good or bad), but you occasionally overlook his impact until his box score slaps you across the face. Last night, for example, he had 10 points, 10 boards, 7 assists, 2 steals, and 5 blocks.

The Sixers have a lot of really intriguing pieces. Joel Embiid was mostly quiet, but he had a ludicrous putback slam to open the scoring in the second half, and if he can stay healthy he is going to be something special. Ben Simmons was also poised and composed, but his utter lack of ability to shoot the ball is something to monitor going forward. A couple of his free throws barely made it to the rim, and he was significantly more accurate shooting with his “off” right hand than his “primary” left hand. As Jim Barnett asked last night on the broadcast, are we sure he’s left handed? Spacing is going to be a huge issue for these Sixers (regardless of the number of 3 and D guys they carry) if neither Simmons nor Fultz can hit shots from outside.

The Warriors continue their homestand against the Magic (and red hot Bay Area product Aaron Gordon) on Monday night. In their last six games, they’ve won by an average of 21.5 points, against some of the better teams in the league (Clippers, Spurs, Nuggest, Heat, Wolves, Sixers). The best part? You get the sense there is still another gear the Warriors have yet to unlock, and that is scary to think about and process.

viggy

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Yeah, I don’t see Quinn getting major minutes at this point. Has he even practiced with the team?

SurfCity

Just because we disagree with you that JaVale McGee should start does not mean we are insisting Kerr is a liar.
Now back to logic school with you!

SurfCity

Oh that’s right. Thanks.

Jules

Every first quarter game I’ve watched, Pach always get beat by the opposing center during jump ball—possession. Then, on rebounds, etc. He gets his stuff in there, eventually. But, with McGee, I see him changing those Pach shortcomings around, providing us momentum in getting a lead…

Joe Nava

You have brought up the opioid crisis a few times in this blog. I thought you might want to read the article below:

excerpts:
Importantly, Case and Deaton point at the money. “We should note,” they suggest, “that a central beneficiary of opioids are the pharmaceutical companies that have promoted their sales.”
***********
Matters get more horrid when one looks at the entire pharmaceutical industry. It is true that the drug industry has made a fortune selling painkillers—especially opioids—to the general public. But they also make a killing from selling the antidotes for an overdose. And they have shown their colors by raising prices as the epidemic spirals out of control.

The drug that Picard wanted to deny the overdose victim on their third call to the hospital is Narcan. One version of Narcan is called Evzio and is made by the pharmaceutical company Kaleo. In 2014, Kaleo sold two Evzio doses for $690, but increased the price earlier this year to $4,500. Kaleo controls about 20 percent of the antidote market. This means that it has been able to set the price for this drug across the market, including for generic naloxone, which doubled over the past year.

I and others have seen Pachulia consistently play better than McGee. And those others include the Warriors coaching staff or they wouldn’t be playing Pachulia more than McGee.

I also posted some stats here earlier today showing that Pachulia’s and McGee’s RPM and defensive RPM scores from last season show that Pachulia is a better all-around player and a better defender.

Thurston Hunger

If the only Steph movement on Monday is from his bobblehead, I’m hoping Dray doesn’t blow fouls on Gordon, and gets 10 assists by the half.

Magic are already down 1 or 2 guards with hamstring issues. And well they’re the Magic, and maybe that tempts the bball gods, and maybe Bismack looks like he’s worth a quarter of his salary (he didn’t make the recent lists as I recall). But I think the W’s can stretch him away from the action with some ease. Mack will penetrate but might have a harder time without Steph their as bigger longer guys can just trail him and snuff him.

Three “quality” wins for the Magic include a Conley-less Grizz, a Kawhi-less Spurs who shot horribly and then the Pelicans where Mo Buckets had a rare appearance and almost single-handedly outscored New Orleans from the arc.

Don’t take ’em too lightly but take ’em.

If they get a rare big lead early maybe that would help the ‘Caw play without overthinking? While I’m not sure I see him as an AI archetype as some have said, I do think he, like Andre, struggles with pro-rating his shot versus other All-Stars getting their shots up. Also I still feel the extended experiment with him as a ball-handler is not a good move, he can do some, and I like the idea of getting him going to the bucket more, but maybe half of the time without the ball, like Ian.

Jules

Your logic is illogical. Oh, I don’t agree with you…. then the drop off into an abyss… with no case for your case. That’s how philosophers argue about the fallen tree in the forest.

Off you go into the forest!

Joe Nava

Um… yeah. Plus, she was a virgin, wasn’t she? I mean… that’s what the Bible says…

Phan Boi

KD and Klay are going to kill it tomorrow, book it. Dray and Dre will help. If Steph’s out, the guys will step it up.

Bay Area Warrior Fan

SwagD and 3? Swag3 and D?

Joyous to watch where previously it was SwagNoNo
(No D, no 3, no Swagger).

Thurston Hunger

Exactly, wonder if he had a practice with them even? Sea Dubs are off till Wed so he might be active BUT I know I’d like to see BBell get some time versus Gordon, and the Looney love is strong as of late…so it’s a tough call.

And Steph may make his case for playing on a night when kids (and the gal from section 126 vs the T’Wolves who really wanted a bobblehead) show up to see him at home. If he plays maybe 24 minutes from him or less gets it done.

Phan Boi

As long as they are winning it I don’t care. I just never fix what’s not broken, unless I think it’s going to break. This team is not about to break.

Joe Nava

I’m pretty sure that if Quinn had practiced with the team, someone would have reported that so I don’t think he has.

As for who I would want to see get more playing time between Bell and Looney… that’s a hard one. I’m going to say that’s a tie for me right now. I can see both being very valuable in the coming playoffs. Bell may be a bit more versatile but the way Looney has been playing lately… He may be as valuable to these Warriors, who mainly need good defense from their centers, though rebounding and efficient scoring is also appreciated–and Bell and Looney have been providing all three.

Jules

So, then, Kerr is biased about his wish to shake things up in trying to win the first half? Are the other 4 all-stars the likely culprits?

What’s Kerr’s next step, then?

Status quo? Then pray things fix themselves?

This is not about who’s better statistically, it’s more about who can help make an impact, shake things up, in the first half, in coordination with the 4 all-stars. And right now, it’s not ZZ. Something has to give, or give up.

Joe Nava

Kerr HAS to find something critical to say to motivate the team, right?

Drawing on advanced statistical modeling techniques (and the analytical wizardry of RPM developer Jeremias Engelmann, formerly of the Phoenix Suns), the metric isolates the unique plus-minus impact of each NBA player by adjusting for the effects of each teammate and opposing player.

The RPM model sifts through more than 230,000 possessions each NBA season to tease apart the “real” plus-minus effects attributable to each player, employing techniques similar to those used by scientific researchers when they need to model the effects of numerous variables at the same time.

RPM estimates how many points each player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team’s net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played. The RPM model also yields separate ratings for the player’s impact on both ends of the court: offensive RPM (ORPM) and defensive RPM (DRPM).

Jules

Kerr has provided prima fascia notice to his team, and us fans. If that motivates the crap out of them and cause them to fix the coach’s first half concern and wishes… then alright.

But…

Joe Nava

Pachulia is not the cause for the team’s poor play in first halves this season. That’s the main point I’m trying to make.

Marc

I thought I would see McCaw improve this season. He was a stud last season.

Jules

Yet, in spite of the surface justifications about McGee’s shortcomings… he tickles everyone’s fancy in the positive effect he has on the team and momentum, for a highly charged moment. Enough to change the rhythm of the game and the overall impact on others. That noise is still above the surface.

Jules

Then, could you please opine and be subject to rebuttal as to who or what you believe is the problem, enough for the coach to say what he said… whether strategic or foreboding. Pretty please?

Bay Area Warrior Fan

I dunno. I read Steph’s net rating: 32.4 and i’m kinda apprehensive of the next game. Whether the team can adjust.

My prediction would be Dubs win, but lose their streak of winning by 17.

Joe Nava

Sure. Teams get up to play the defending champs and play them really tough in the first half. During half-time, Kerr points out that the team needs to play better if they want to win. So they do.

And I’m not being facetious this time. I think that pretty much covers it. I can’t blame the Warriors for showing up expecting to win when that’s what they should expect. So they come in a bit complacent and get punched in the face (metaphorically) by the other team in the first half. Then Kerr yells at them during the halftime break and they play harder in the second half.

Joe Nava

Might could happen. The Magic are playing really well so far this season.

Joe Nava

The Welcome Party Is Over for Paul George in OKC

By Ben Golliver

excerpts:

The story in Oklahoma City so far has been one of regression, rather than ascension. George has been squeezed on both sides by Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony, left with that trio’s third-highest usage rate. Compared to last year, George’s scoring is down, his shots are down, and his assists are down. Meanwhile, his touches, time of possession and free-throw attempts are all way down.
**********
There isn’t a simple fix to make OKC’s Big 3 hum. Westbrook’s own scoring and usage are down sharply this year; He’s trying, albeit very awkwardly, to clear room for his new sidekicks. Expecting the 33-year-old Anthony to dramatically rework his game is a fool’s errand. As per expectations, he’s been a capable catch-and-shoot target for Westbrook’s passes and a persistent weak link on the defensive end. That’s who he is, whether or not he dons the mythical hooded sweatshirt.
************
Given the prospect of George’s impending free agency and the massive luxury tax payments required to keep this core group together, Presti and company are already at the point where they need to show major progress on the question that will define the organization’s next chapter.

Could George end up joining LeBron with the LA Lackers next season after all? I hope not.

Jules

Statistics provide a tangible yardstick on how a player operates during the allotted minutes of his game, but doesn’t account for the important intangibles that make him highly valuable in impacting a game, whether for a short spurt, enough to swing momentum around.

ZZ, stats… McGee, impact.

Problem: they’re both in the same team.

Joe Nava

When the statistical impact being measured is point differential, you’re measuring the most important “impact” in the game. And Pachulia’s impact has been better than McGee’s, my friend.

Zume

Also they have actualized in the sense of learning how best to play the game. If they choose to play with another Kerr or Popovish mentored coach that is up and coming they will be okay in that beautiful basketball category. Losing does not help much in the joy part though. I could see them playing for Luke Walton or Alvin Gentry or others. More and more teams are learning to play the Warriors way and would value a player coming aboard to help them mentor their players.

Zume

agree but would say –
4th – G League with smiles

Jules

Okay, fair enough. But one glaring contrast on a fact that Kerr submitted to the press recently: he never yells at his players. (I’ll try to find that article and post here, as FYI.) He said he presents possible reasons as to why/what/how/etc. he thinks the half went and some stats… like their many turnovers. With that, it churns the players’ minds into a collective problem solving on their own, with little yelling on his part. Then, they come out kicking hiney.

But, that’s after the fact. And that fact is what he’d like to tweak.

Joe Nava

I don’t think the problem is in Kerr’s lineups. I think the team just needs to play with more urgency and focus in the first half.

Bay Area Warrior Fan

Thanks Joe. nyt ran an article on it. 60k folks died last year as a result of overdose or improperly prescribed pain medication, all pushed by Big Pharma.

Title of article “Drug Dealers in Lab Coats”

Who knew that big pharma could kill more folks than guns? In pursuit of corporate profit?

Unbridled capitalism is equal opportunity, claims all victims, and spans the entire political spectrum.

Jules

Well, we’ll have to wait and see. Monday will provide a test of that shake up in the first half… and the second, as MVP Steph will be out resting. This lineup change is a MAJOR decision of the coach, very early in the season, and don’t be surprised if this is part of his intention. Call me whatever, but it is a major shakeup. If need be, Curry can play, like mentioned. But, “caution” will be thrown up, and commotion will ensue. It’ll be interesting to watch.

Joe Nava

Capitalism is a great system. For those on top.

Joe Nava

Yes, it will. Enjoy that game and the rest of this season, my friend. We are lucky to have such a talented team to root for. This may very well turn out to be the best NBA team ever.

Bay Area Warrior Fan

Precisely. I can see Roy Moore’s chief adherent arguing that what Roy Moore did to that unfortunate poor young lady didnt deprive her of her money virginity. Thus “nothing to look here”.

I donno know whether to throw up or go petition my local police to go lock up this sexual predator.

When even Trump and kellyanne are hedging on Roy in this sexual abuse case, Roy’s on a slippery slope. How is this not molest of a minor?

In almost any state and any jurisdiction in the US it would be classified as molest and an automatic sex predator label. Have i misunderstood basic criminal law?

Joe Nava

U.S. Billionaire Bonanza 2017: 3 Men Now Own More Wealth Than the Bottom Half of the Country Combined