Syria: A Political Battlefield Masked by Civil War

Syria could be the brain teaser of the Arab world and one could easily argue that is not really a case of Arab spring, but a situation frozen to one season, and that's winter. At the beginning, it was not an uprising aimed to a regime change although Bashar al-Assad's centralized political system had been oppressive, accompanied by the dreadful military intelligence service, Mukhabarat, since his first intention as President to modernize the country failed when meeting strong resistance from his father's old Guard. 11 years after, in March 2011, Syrian people went out in the streets to ask for economic reforms and respect of civil rights.

It could have been pure fear from Assad's part, that his regime was the next to fall, that led to the extreme violence exercised by the Syrian authorities. While promises for reforms were made at first, protests always turned into a bloodshed. It wasn't until the 15th of July that the International Committee of the Red Cross officially declared Syria to be in a state of civil war. A civil war, that till this moment seems to have no winner or loser, and that according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights costed the life of 59,648 individuals in Syria between 15 March 2011 and 30 November 2012. Is there any way for this slaughter to stop, notwithstanding the non-stop games of interests played by internal and international actors on the background of the Syrian civil war?

In November 2012, the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (National Coalition) was formed, a group pretending to unite all opposition groups together. Al-Khatib was chosen to be the National Coalition's first President. He used to be imam of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and was jailed several times for criticizing the president before leaving Syria in 2012. He is known as moderate and has been defending the unity and the plurality of the political system, making him probably an ideal figure for peaceful negotiations between the various rebel groups and Assad's regime. He, himself expressed his willingness to negotiate with some elements of the Syrian regime.

While National Coalition includes members of the Local Coordination Committees, grassroots opposition activists, enjoys the support of the rebel Supreme Military Council (SMC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and it is internationally recognized by more than 100 countries and various institutions as the legitimate representative of Syrian people, it is not the only opposition.

First, it does not include the National Co-ordination team that is, 13 left-leaning political parties, three Kurdish political parties, and independent political and youth activists that mainly reject violence and want to negotiate with the government. Several islamist groups, including the Al-Nusra front, that fight alongside the Free Syrian Army are not part of the National Coalition either. Hundred of opposition armed groups that fight against Assad's regime have taken the battle to major cities. The Al-Nusra front, along with the jihadist group, Ghuraba al-Sham, and the Farouq Brigade extended military operations into Raqqa Province. Meanwhile, these groups along with the Asifat al-Shamal Brigade, entered areas held by Kurdish militias, provoking clashes among the same opposition.

Al-Nusra is a group recognized by the United Stated as a foreign terrorist organization and its role is full of ambiguities. While Iraqi Al-Qaida has confirmed its links to Jabhat al-Nusra, saying both are now fighting under the same banner, Moaz al-Khatib claims that this is untrue and that the al-Nusra front was not consulted about this statement and that al-Qaida is trying to impose itself on the Syrian group. The rise of radicalism is a new emerging danger in Syria. According to a year-long survey by King's College London of more than two hundred martyrdom posts on jihadist-linked websites and hundreds of Arab and western press reports found that up to 600 individuals from 14 countries including the UK, Austria, Spain, Sweden and Germany had taken part in the conflict since it began in 2011. The greater influence of extremist groups in the armed opposition creates hesitation among Western countries. In the G8 meeting this month Syrian crisis was one of the top issues. While France and Britain press for amending or lifting an arms embargo on Syria to support the rebels, other G8 countries such as Russia and Germany have opposed this move, fearing it could lead to weapons falling into the hands of Islamist militants, raising the possibility of approaching a regional conflict.

This fragmentation of the opposition, also increases skepticism about a future pluralistic Syrian society living in peace, which makes Al-Khatib's first reaction on the decision to form an interim government with Prime Minister Ghassan Hitto, quite understandable. Although his decision to resign from his post as President was refused by National Coalition members, his fears that this move could lead to a partition of the country, are absolutely reasonable.

It should not be forgotten that the country is in civil war and Assad is still favored by a small minority. Notwithstanding, countries like Iran and Russia still give lethal aid to the old regime and there are countries like China who still think that Syria should resolve its problems internally. Syria's important geographical position and its problematic neighboring states should be seriously considered before taking further steps. Negotiation between Assad's regime and the opposition is still the only viable option. It is essential that the different groups of opposition, and not only the ones pertaining to National Coalition, have a voice, in order to guarantee a pluralistic political transition. If the armed conflict prolongs more time, it would only mean more atrocities from both parts, more chances for extremist groups to gain power and an increasing intervention from external actors. A political transition should start immediately without isolating any part while the countries implicated in favor of Assad or the opposition should take any possible measure to make this happen. Further instability and deconstruction of the country cannot bring in long-term benefits for anybody.

Director

Konstantina Kostami is co-founder of Open Society and researcher on Democratization and Development in the Arab/Muslim world at the Complutense University of Madrid.

Education

Ph.D. in Political Science at Complutense University of Madrid, M.Sc. in International politics at the Complutense University of Madrid, B.Sc. in International and European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business

Languages

English, French, Spanish, Arabic, Greek

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