What does Nicolas Sarkozy have to gain from announcing that he will leave
politics if he is not re-elected?

His plan is to lay a crafty trap, according to political analyst Stéphane Rozès.

Struggling to catch frontrunner François Hollande, Sarkozy is seeking to “dramatise” the election. “He is saying in substance: ‘In May, it will be more or chaos,'” Rozès tells Europe1.

This threat follows the logic that he is the only “captain” of France capable of steering through the current stormy economic times. France must choose between Sarkozy and “a candidate who will accompany the decline of France,” prime minister François Fillon warned today. The allusion to Hollande is clear.

By saying “If I lose, I stop”, Sarkozy is trying to “spark desire, it’s a way of saying ‘come and get me’,” says Rozès.

It’s a risky gamble, however, warns Gael Sliman, from the BVA pollster, as the French may well turn round and say, fine, au revoir.

But his main aim, says Rozès, is to “present the election as a referendum for or against Sarkozy” in order to become the focal point of the campaign. “Right now, François Hollande holds that post”.

In essence Sarkozy is “laying a trap for Francois Hollande,” says Rozès.

“If the Socialist candidate enters into this game of anti-Sarkozyism, he will lose the election.”

That tactic is precisely what led to the downfall of Lionel Jospin, the Socialist candidate in 2002 who was knocked out by National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in round one by basing his campaign on an anti-Chirac ticket. Support for Jospin plummeted after he called Chirac "tired, exhausted and passive" and a man who had "lost much of his energy and drive". The comment was duly condemned as an ageist "cheap shot" by Mr Chirac.

“It happened to Segolene Royal who lost in 2007 by attacking Nicolas Sarkozy frontally. We are not in the United States. That strategy doesn’t work. »

If my memory is correct, Hollande acknowledges that Jospin lost for precisely this reason, so he is hardly likely to fall for it.

Indeed, his reaction today was wary to say the least. "Frankly, if I may say so, it's his freedom and and that of the French to decide."

Hollande is acutely aware that his popularity is largely down to massive rejection of his main rival. One poll this month suggested 60 per cent of French intending to vote for Hollande not because of his policies but because they can no longer stand the sight of Sarkozy.

That leaves Hollande with a huge potential Achilles heel, but for Sarkozy to get the chance to strike at it he must first divorce Sarkozy the man from Sarkozysm, his political agenda. Given the mass enmity for the man, that is a tall order.