Races to Watch

It’s the presidential eclipse: Every four years, media coverage about all angles of the race for the White House (significant or not) overshadows all but a handful of too-close-to-call congressional races. Yet, in the midst of an economic meltdown, record gas prices and a five-year war, there’s no question that citizens care who represents them in Congress, not just who moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Political contributors are on course this year to give more money to House and Senate races than ever before. So far they’ve given nearly a billion dollars to influence these elections–not nearly enough to bail out a floundering insurance company, but enough to pay for a tank of gas at $4 a gallon for every resident of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona.

Money matters in politics, and it is one of the factors giving a number of congressional races this year an interesting twist–even those where the winner is pretty easy to predict. While other political analysts focus on the most competitive congressional races, Capital Eye has singled out contests with an interesting fundraising angle.

Chart.

Challengers Outraising Incumbents

Candidates Supported by Their Party

Big Money, Small Money

Money Flowing from Oil and Gas

Lobbyists’ Favorite Candidates

Candidates Backed by PACs

Where Cash Has No Competition

Top Self-Funders

Wall Street’s Favorite Candidates

For the next week we’ll run daily profiles of our selection of races to watch. We’ll focus on the few races where the challenger has overcome the odds to raise more than the incumbent, and we’ll highlight those incumbents who are inexplicably raising and spending huge amounts of money against challengers who pose no financial threat. We’ll look at campaigns where the candidate is especially reliant on an industry in the news: Wall Street, K Street’s lobbyists and the unpopular oil and gas industry. We’ll look at which candidates are beholden to big donors and which are successful thanks to donors giving small amounts. And we’ll talk to millionaire candidates about why it’s worth investing in contests that history suggests most of them will lose.

So far, Democrats, who won control of Congress in 2006, have raised $530.5 million for House and Senate races, while Republicans have raised $452.4 million. The Democratic congressional committees have also raised $61.5 million more than their Republican counterparts, which is a shift from past elections. “The shoe’s usually on the other foot,” said Linda Fowler, professor of government at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. “Republicans typically have been more successful in raising money for candidates. Since Republicans have more open seats to defend because of a lot of retirements, they have less money to play with.”

And as all of this money changes hands, what’s at stake for the political parties?

“Right now the Senate has 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans,” said Michael Rocca, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico. “The closer the Democrats get to 60 members in the Senate, the closer they are to shutting down a filibuster and having a lot more control over legislation.” And as Democrats fight to gain a stronger majority, Republicans will be trying to hold on to seats left vacant by GOP retirements, win back Republican strongholds they lost in 2006 and, overall, fight with all they’ve got to minimize their losses in November.

The congressional races will help set the country’s course for the coming years in Iraq and in getting the economy to bounce back–perhaps the two biggest issues voters will have in mind as they enter the voting booths. Congressional campaigns, the parties and outside issue groups are spending big on advertising that links candidates to these issues either in a positive or negative light.

“The economy is looming very large right now. It looks like there’ll be some sort of [congressional] action to deal with the Wall Street collapse of last week,” said Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Colorado-Denver. “Voters will almost certainly be evaluating that and whether taxpayers got a good or bad deal out of it and which party seems likely to handle financial crisis in the future.”

Even as the presidential candidates get more media attention for their statements on the economy and war–and break fundraising records of their own–Barack Obama and John McCain are helping to get more voters out on Election Day.

“Sometimes, when there’s this really heightened interest in the presidential race, there’s this trickledown effect,” said Rob Saldin, a political scientist at the University of Montana-Missoula. “People aren’t as hyped about congressional races as the presidential election, but they’re a little more excited about congressional elections now than in a year when the presidential election was less compelling.”

So join Capital Eye as we follow the money in some of the most interesting congressional races of 2008.

With few exceptions, incumbents will out-raise their challengers–so far this election cycle, incumbents for Congress have raised nine times more than their challengers, on average, and there is not a single Senate race where the challenger has raised more money than the sitting senator. Although challengers aren’t winning the money race on the Senate side, the Center for Responsive Politics has identified 14 House races where the challenger surpassed the incumbent in fundraising after the most recent reporting period, through June…. (Continue)

Private interests and members of the public aren’t the only ones betting their money on the congressional candidates they hope will win (or retain) congressional seats. Lawmakers in both parties have a vested interest in seeing their own candidates succeed this November, with Democrats wanting to strengthen their majority and Republicans hoping to minimize their losses. Here we look at some of the candidates getting the largest cash infusions from their own parties, indicating a close race…. (Continue)

Barack Obama defended his decision not to accept public financing by arguing that running a campaign for the White House based on small contributions accomplishes what the public financing system aims to do but falls short of doing: curb the influence of outside interest groups. In many congressional races, the issue of who’s backing the candidate–wealthy donors or everyone else–is finding its way into debates over the best way to fix the economy and whether campaign contributions and lobbying by the financial sector had anything to do with today’s economic crisis. Capital Eye takes a closer look at some of these races. … (Continue)

The oil and gas industry, under the spotlight this fall with energy at the forefront of political discourse, isn’t hesitating to put some of its record profits into the hands of candidates who support its cause (or those it’s seeking to convert). So far this election cycle, the oil and gas industry has given $12.3 million total to congressional candidates. The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics has identified the candidates who have received the most money from oil and gas interests in this election cycle, and Capital Eye selected a few races to more deeply examine the impact of well-digger dollars on politics. … (Continue)

Registered lobbyists aren’t just getting the attention of lawmakers while on the job. Like any other member of the public, they, too, are able to contribute up to the maximum amount per election to candidates of their choice. The Center for Responsive Politics has identified the congressional races with candidates who are receiving the most money from registered lobbyists…. (Continue)

More than a quarter of the money raised by congressional candidates on the November ballot has come from business and labor PACs, not from individual donors, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Capital Eye has profiled some races where labor union and business PAC money is playing the largest role…. (Continue)

Like reading tea leaves, one way to predict how a congressional race is going to go is by looking at the disparity in fundraising between the candidates. So far this election cycle, 280 House and Senate incumbents on November’s ballot have collected at least 10 times more than the opponent they face in the general election. In this installment of Races to Watch, Capital Eye looks into why some of these incumbents have been such successful fundraisers. … (Continue)

On its own, fundraising is a serious challenge; add the obstacle of navigating complicated campaign finance laws and it’s enough to deter many from the political arena. However, individuals with deep pockets can finance their own campaigns, and unlike contributions raised from other people, there is no limit to how much personal money candidates can give themselves. Capital Eye takes a look at the top self-funders seeking congressional office this election cycle…. (Continue)

Not at all to the chagrin of oil and gas companies (and lawmakers who have received campaign donations from them), Wall Street is the new black for congressional candidates looking to link their opponents to an unpopular industry. As federal lawmakers have wrestled with an economic bailout plan worth $700 billion, candidates who have received contributions from the financial sector are on the defensive. Find out which candidates are filling their war chests with money from the finance sector in Capital Eye’s last installment of Races to Watch. … (Continue)

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