Mark L. Hopkins: An implosion is coming

Monday

Mar 6, 2017 at 12:28 PM

Mark L. Hopkins More Content Now

As most who read my column each week know, I write much about history but am averse to making predictions. However, this one time I am going to make an exception. The Chinese have a proverb that says, “If we don’t change the direction we are headed, we will end up where we are going.” Well, we are headed for trouble and when it comes it will be political and constitutional, as well as social.

Three factors predict a major governmental implosion. They are 1) presidential approval ratings, 2) management/administrative theory and 3) national level demonstrations. The following will provide some clarification.

President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, at 45 percent when he was sworn in, have now dipped to less than 40 percent by reputable polling organizations. No modern president has had such low ratings at the beginning of his presidency. This, during his “honeymoon” period. To add to his woes, women disapprove of his presidency at the 63 percent level. Minorities overwhelmingly disapprove at a 79 percent rate. The youth (under 30) disapprove at a 69 percent rate. The majority white population disapproves at a 46 percent level.

Management theorist such as Peter Drucker, Stephen Covey and John Kenneth Galbrith, three well known writers on the subject, have stated over and over that organizations are managed with the consent of the governed. In business or governmental organizations, much of the cause of organizational difficulty is related to a low level of support by those governed. When disapproval rises above 20 percent, trouble is coming. Need-less-to-say disapproval ratings for the current administration in Washington D.C. are double and triple that benchmark 20 percent number.

Being President of the United States is the most difficult job in the world. In a recent speech, President Trump stated that he “inherited a mess.” He was right. The U.S. presidency has and will always be a mess. Not only do we have a very diverse population that makes great demands on its leadership, the U.S. president is almost by fiat the leader of the free world. And, like the United States the world is a mess, only worse.

Presidential elections seldom give a president more than a few percentage points above 50 percent of the vote. In this last election, it was less than 50 percent. Early in the tenure of a new president it is necessary to take action to placate the opposition, to gain enough support to allow him/her to govern with majority support. That is, seemingly, not in the current administration’s plan.

Negative ratings mean little unless the disapproval translates into action. Do we have evidence of such action? In January, we had a march on Washington by an estimated crowd of more than 2 million women demonstrating about policies related to their concerns. Minorities are demonstrating all across the country about immigration policies. On Presidents’ Day “Not my President” rallies sprang up in dozens of cities nationwide. Youthful demonstrators are showing their disapproval on college campuses. In short, we have not had so much turmoil on the national scene since the anti-Viet Nam War demonstrations of the late 1960s. Then, government literally stopped while we straightened out our mess. Richard Nixon won the presidency in 1968 promising to end the Viet Nam War and quell the demonstrations.

Predictions, like this column, are just words on a paper. However, these particular words come from one who taught both history and government, who administered public organizations for a career, and has been an interested observer of the national political scene for more than 60 years. The way to keep from getting where we are headed is for our president and his leadership team to realize that one governs with the consent and support of the governed. Without that support, a president may continue in office but for all practical purposes his presidency will be over before it is hardly started.

— Dr. Mark L. Hopkins writes for More Content Now and the Anderson Independent-Mail in South Carolina. He is past president of colleges and universities in four states. Books by Hopkins currently available on Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble include “Journey to Gettysburg” and “The Wounds of War,” both Civil War-era novels, and “The World As It Was When Jesus Came.” Contact him at presnet@presnet.net.

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