Monday, January 21, 2013

Blueprint for Miami in FA and the Draft

The Dolphins are
embarking on what could be the most important offseason in franchise history.
Here is what we’re dealing with: they have tons of cap room (upwards to 50
million according to some sources), a good prospect at quarterback, an entire
coaching staff returning, several key in-house free agents, oh, and 5 picks in
the first 3 rounds of the 2013 NFL draft.

Free Agency

First, let’s
look at resigning the key in-house guys.

Jake Long. Let
him walk unless he’s willing to re-sign at a reasonable price. Long was great
during his first few seasons, but the last two years he has pretty much been
league average at the position.

Reggie Bush. As
much as I love watching Reggie make people miss on the field, running backs in
the NFL are a dime a dozen these days. Yes, there are a few guys out there that
are irreplaceable, but Bush is not one of them. Lamar Miller appears to have
the skills that can replace Bush and Daniel Thomas can be a decent #2 guy on
this team. Bush should be gone unless the Dolphins can get him cheap.

Brian Hartline.
They’ve got to re-sign this guy. Hartline is a smooth route runner with above
average hands. We all know he doesn’t have game changing speed, but he gets
open often, and would be a solid #2 option on most teams.

Randy Starks.
This guy is a beast, plain and simple. Starks is one of the main reasons the
Dolphins were 13th against the run this year as he constantly
overpowered opposing teams’ lines. And there is something to be said about
keeping a solid veteran starter over bringing in another free agent or rookie.

Sean Smith.
Good, but not great. Keep him as a #2 or #3 corner.

Everyone else.
Chris Clemons should be re-signed. Fasano should also be retained as a #3
blocking tight end and red zone target. The rest of their free agents are all
role players and need not be analyzed here. I’m focusing on the impact/starting
caliber players only.

Open Market Free Agency.

To avoid being
redundant, let’s focus on areas of need instead of specific players to target.

1. WR. There are
some pretty darn good options out there. The Dolphins should go after one of
the big three (Jennings, Wallace, Bowe). But if they swing and miss, they
should consider someone like Danario Alexander. If they add any one of these
guys and re-sign Hartline, the passing game will immediately improve.

2. CB. The
Dolphins need a #1 corner. Sean Smith, Richard Marshall, and the other corners
on the roster are nothing more than #2’s or 3’s. Free agents Grimes, Cox, or
Rodgers-Cromartie would make a decent pairing with the aforementioned Dolphins
corners.

4. OL. The
Dolphins have spent enough high picks in the draft on OL in the last 10 years.
Let’s face it; this strategy hasn’t worked for them. If Long is not retained,
there are guys out there who, at the minimum, can replace him at the league
average level. Plus, Jonathan Martin has not reached his full potential and can
be plugged in at LT. Let’s bring in a couple decently priced FA’s and call the
OL good.

The Draft

If the Dolphins
do everything I suggest leading up to the draft then all of their major needs
will have been at addressed in some capacity. That means they will have the
ability to draft some luxuries in the early rounds. This is how the rich get
richer. Teams at the top of drafts normally draft lineman and quarterbacks
mainly because their talent at these positions is inept. They try to build from
the inside out. This is normally a good strategy, but it can take years to see
the profits (see the 49ers under Nolan and Singletary).

Miami will not
be one of these teams. The Dolphins’ lines are already built. They will enter
the draft with a decent, young OL, a promising young QB, and a stacked front seven
on defense. With the foundation already in place, they can focus their draft on
game changing skill position players.

Wide Receivers. Either Keenan Allen or CordarrellePatterson should be taken in the first round. Both of these guys possess the
size and speed necessary to make an impact from day one in the NFL. Plus, if
Miami has already brought back Hartline and added one the big three FA
wide-outs, then Patterson or Allen will not have the pressure to become a starter
right away. Just imagine the Dolphins sporting Jennings, Wallace, or Bowe as
their #1, Hartline as their #2, Bess as their slot guy, and either Allen or
Patterson their 4th option. This would be a dynamic receiving core,
resembling that of the Green Bay Packers.

Other later
targets: Tavon Austin or Ryan Swope. The Dolphins should get Allen/Patterson
and one these two. Why not double down on WR?

Cornerbacks. As much as I’d like to see Miami get
Millner, I don’t see him falling to 12, and wide receiver should be their top
target regardless of how many mock drafters suggest them getting a defensive
player. Guys like Johnthan Banks, Leon Mcfadden, and Desmond Trufant will most
likely be available when Miami picks its second
2nd rounder.

Tight End. Let’s grab either Ertz or Eifert and be
done with it. Maybe one of these guys will fall to Miami in the 2nd
round.

The rest. Miami should grab a late round
o-lineman, linebacker, and safety, but these are not dire needs. A late round
QB would be a smart option as well. An NFL team should never be complacent with
its QB situation.

Conclusion

If the Dolphins re-sign key players
such as Hartline, Bush, Starks, Smith, Long (at a reduced rate), and their role
players, then they will be able to add dynamic, game-changing type players
though free agency and the draft. If they don’t re-sign these key in-house
guys, then we will most likely see yet another year of signing and drafting
interior lineman, which, in my opinion, will not get Miami over the hump next
year. Miami has all the right ingredients and resources to make the leap to
contender status as early as next season. Let’s hope they use them well.