Adam Afriyie has been used to damage David Cameron – and it failed

A few months ago I asked one of the MPs most closely associated with Adam Afriyie whether he thought his man had what it takes to be Tory leader. "Of course not," came the candid reply. In private most Tories are more than willing to detail the Windsor MP's shortcomings: they say he is not as successful as he makes out, and has left no footprints in politics to make him credible. In fact, the Afriyie operation is, and always has been, a political Trojan horse, a device used by David Cameron's committed enemies to maximise the Prime Minister's discomfort and leverage him out of office. All the evidence suggests that Mr Afriyie believes what his so-called friends have told him about his chances. He has come to see himself as an important player in Conservative politics, who has sufficient influence to make No10 tremble and sway his colleagues.

Today we discover that he is not, in fact, the Messiah. Of the 147 MPs in the 2010 Tory intake, 140 or so have signed a letter telling him to drop his amendment to James Wharton's referendum Bill. This is a signal achievement for Mr Cameron, who stuck his neck out by declaring that Mr Afriyie's amendment would not be allowed to stand. To have persuaded the bulk of the numerically influential intake to turn on Mr Afriyie is a success. The Windsor MP will now have to back down, unless he is reckless. Of course, his supporters – those hauling the Trojan horse into position – are not of the 2010 intake. It would be interesting to hear from them. In the meantime, we can conclude that which was already evident this summer and at conference: the backbenches are rallying to the cause and falling in behind Mr Cameron. The leadership uncertainty of the spring has been replaced by a sense of common purpose, namely to see off Red Ed and drive the Lib Dems out of government. Tory MPs do not want to find themselves on the wrong side of a story of building success. As Mr Afriyie has discovered, anyone who gets in the way of that narrative – particularly those sitting on comfortable majorities – are likely to get short shrift.