This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distribution to colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire about permissions/licensing, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com

Heretofore the difference between crap and craps: The first is played on ice, too many nights, by the Maple Leafs.

The second is played with dice.

Yet there is a huge similarity between the two in what's known as probability mathematics, or the misunderstood notion of independent events.

The naïve gambler persists in believing past events have an influence on future outcomes.

For example, a flipped coin has a 50 per cent chance of coming up heads. That probability does not change if a coin is flipped four times in a row – the fourth flip still has a probability of coming up tails half the time, even if it has come up heads three flips straight.

Article Continued Below

There's no bucking the odds.

That holds true in most games of chance, such as craps. A rolled dice always has a 1-chance-in-6 of flashing six pips, no matter how often it is thrown. A die doesn't change it's, um, spots.

Leaf shooters have been unable to change their luck either, regardless of how many shots they take in a game – like that club-record tying 61 in Monday's 4-3 overtime loss to the Islanders.

Now, clearly there are permutations, hockey-wise, because scoring opportunities have numerous variables. This is what makes it a game of skill and calculation rather than chance and finite odds. But the Leafs have been making a whole lot of journeymen goalies look like Dominik Hasek by shooting blanks or taking low-profit swipes at the puck on the theory that, eventually, some of them have to go in. Ain't happening.

Toronto has the lowest shooting percentage in the league despite taking more shots than any other club – an average of 34.7 before last night's tilt in Tampa. No individual Maple Leaf has even cracked the NHL top 30 in shooting percentage for all that flying rubber.

There is ample explanation for this, most notably the inability or reluctance to pierce defensive coverage in the offensive zone, which involves skating hard to the net, fighting off checkers and hackers.

To wit: Jason Blake.

But stats crunching by those who specialize in numbers arcana has also shown a significant correlation between shots, goals and situational circumstances – when trailing, even or in the lead. Teams playing with the lead, according to the sources we consulted, take five shots less per game than those playing catch-up.

And Toronto has been playing catch-up since the puck dropped on this season, routinely giving up the first goal and often spotting the opposition two. That means, yes, opening up and scrambling for the equalizer, which leads inevitably to turnovers, players trapped up-ice, neutral-zone penalties and high-percentage shots on the Leaf netminders.

The Leafs, arguably, have just one pure goal scorer in Phil Kessel, who has been exactly as advertised. This was the dilemma in the Mats Sundin era, when so much of the offensive burden was borne by a single player, rarely with proficient play-making linemates.

There is a school of thought that goal-scoring can't be taught; it's intuitive. Snipers are born with the gift, the eye-hand coordination, and no amount of shooting drills will turn a dud into a Dany Heatley.

But surely effort and execution can be instilled.

"Snipers have a weird sense of where to go on the ice and they always find a way to score,'' said Sundin, when we caught up with him on Wednesday, enjoying retirement in Stockholm.

"It's a combination of natural skill and hard work. The best pure goal-scorer I ever saw was Alex Mogilny. Now, he was gifted, but he also worked hard on his shooting every day.''

Sundin cleaves to the keep-shooting mantra.

"At least you're giving yourself a chance to score.''

From across the ocean, the ex-Leafs captain has been keeping a concerned eye on his old team.

"I look at the scores every morning," he said. "My heart is with the Toronto Maple Leafs and there's nothing I want more than for them to do well.''

More from the Toronto Star & Partners

LOADING

Copyright owned or licensed by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or distribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Toronto Star Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. To order copies of Toronto Star articles, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com