Murkowski faces possible upset

In what could become one of the biggest political upsets of the year, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski trailed her tea-party-backed opponent by a small margin Wednesday in Alaska's GOP primary with thousands of votes yet to be counted.

Attorney Joe Miller, who also had the backing of former Gov. Sarah Palin, led Murkowski by less than 3 percentage points with 98 percent of precincts reporting. Thousands of absentee ballots have not yet been added to the tally from Tuesday's vote — a process that could take up to two weeks to tabulate.

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If Murkowski loses, she would become the third senator this year to be ousted by a primary challenger. Her defeat would also be one of the most stunning losses in the state's short 51-year history and a sure sign that Palin's endorsement still carries weight with voters in Alaska.

Not a single public poll showed Miller within striking distance of Murkowski in the weeks before the primary, and she spent more than 10 times as much as he spent. However, a ballot measure requiring parental notifications for teens seeking an abortion boosted Miller by driving tens of thousands of voters to the polls in what would likely have otherwise been a low-turnout primary.

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, more than 72,000 Alaska voters approved the parental-notification law, known as Measure 2, out of 131,000 votes cast in the ballot measure election. The number of voters for the measure was far more than the 90,000 votes cast in the Senate race.

Miller told POLITICO that voters who approved the ballot measure likely supported his campaign. Although both Miller and Murkowski said they supported Measure 2, Murkowski is one of the few Republicans in the Senate who generally supports legislation supporting abortion rights — a point that Miller drove home in some of his last-minute advertisements.

“Proposition 2 was aligned with our campaign in the sense that the value voters ... are also the same type of people who would be supporting our campaign,” Miller said.

Miller said he was optimistic about his chances in the race but was waiting until the “vast majority” of ballots were counted. A Murkowski campaign spokesman did not return several requests for comment.

It could take up to two weeks, however, to finish counting the ballots — even longer if one of the candidates requests a recount. The Anchorage Daily News reported there are more than 16,000 absentee ballots still out — more than eight times the 2,000 vote-margin that currently separates Murkowski and Miller.

It would not be the first time that absentee ballots changed the course of an election in the state. On Election Day in 2008, then-Sen. Ted Stevens led Democrat Mark Begich by about 3,000 votes, but Begich took the lead and won the seat after about 60,000 absentee ballots were counted in the ensuing weeks.

The eventual winner will be the favorite to defeat Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, the Democrat nominee, in the general election Nov. 2.

Like many political observers in the state, veteran GOP pollster David Dittman was surprised by Miller's strong showing. He said his most recent polling showed Miller closing in on Murkowski somewhat but still trailing her by about 20 percentage points.