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News and views: Robert Bianco on the Emmy races

If Emmy is lucky, Monday's awards will fix some of the mess July's nominations made. They are, indeed, even more of a mess than usual. An influx of original programming from a host of new sources has made the

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News and views: Robert Bianco on the Emmy races

Who will take home an Emmy on Monday (NBC, 8 ET/5 PT)? USA Today TV Critic Robert Bianco looks at who probably will - and who certainly should.

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Previous winner: 'Breaking Bad' (AMC)

Drama series

Will and should win:Breaking Bad, AMC

What a mess the Emmys have made.

For your two Best Drama frontrunners, you haveBreaking Bad with an eight-episode run that is only eligible because AMC broke the show's final season in two; andTrue Detective, an eight-episode miniseries that is only eligible because the Television Academy allows the networks to do whatever they want, no matter how patently ridiculous or obvious a bit of category-shopping that may be. And True Detective's punishment for shopping where it doesn't belong is to be anointed the favorite by most of the oddsmakers.

Well, not so fast. Each series submits six episodes for voters to judge (each voter screens two) - and none of these shows, including True Detective, have six episodes that can match the last six of Breaking Bad. That should be enough to carry one of the best series ever aired past a show that wasn't really a series at all.

Previous winner: 'Modern Family' (ABC)

Comedy series

Will and should win:Modern Family, ABC

History is not on Modern Family's side. The show is trying for its fifth straight best-comedy Emmy, which would tie it with Frasier for both the most wins and most consecutive wins. And it's going for that record against incredibly stiff competition from Big Bang, Louie, Silicon Valley and Veep - four comedies with equal (and in some corners more) critical acclaim.

So why go with Modern Family? Because at its best, it remains the most complete show: One that best blends humor and emotion, farcical and realistic situations, laugh-out-loud silliness and cleverly intricate plotting and wordplay, all performed by a note-perfect ensemble that gently conveys an unforced social message about what American families look like today and why we're all the better for it. Family isn't the only choice, and it won't be a shock or a tragedy if it doesn't win. But it is the best choice.

The wild card in this mix is Orange, an excellent, groundbreaking series that Hollywood clearly loves. Voters had no choice but to nominate it in this category, but it doesn't belong here - and that should be enough to keep it from winning.

Jeff Daniels was the upset winner in this category last year - but last year, he wasn't running against an Oscar-winner. McConaughey's movie-star status, and the pop-culture impact of a TV performance that earned all the buzz it generated, will probably be enough to tilt the Emmy his way - past Spacey and Hamm, and even past his equally good co-star Harrelson. Yet as good as McConaughey was, were I voting, I would not be able to vote against Cranston, who created one of the greatest characters and gave one of the best performances TV has ever seen.

Previous winner: Claire Danes, 'Homeland' (Showtime)

Actress, drama

Will and Should Win:Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS)

Danes could win because she already has, but this would be an odd Homeland season to win for. Wright could win to make up for losing last year, when many thought she was the favorite - but when it comes to Netflix shows, Orange seems to have pushed House out of the limelight. And Caplan could win simply because she's so fabulous in Sex and would make such a terrific choice.

But Margulies will and should win for once again proving the virtues of subtlety, both for its own impact and for the contrast it provides to bigger moments, in what was her (and The Good Wife's) best year yet. A win here won't quite make up for snubbing her show, but it will help.

Previous winner: Bobby Cannavale, 'Boardwalk Empire' (HBO)

Supporting actor, drama

Will and Should Win: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Voters could go with Dinklage, who had another great season, or Charles, for a role that gave the season its biggest and best-kept surprise. But look for them to go to Paul, for taking Jesse right up to (and maybe past) the brink of insanity, and then yanking him back.

Previous winner: Anna Gunn, 'Breaking Bad' (AMC)

Supporting actress, drama

Will and Should Win: Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS)

Gunn won last year and seems to be the favorite this year. But not here, and not up against Baranski, who had a wonderful - and full-length - run and has waited for the award long enough. Submitted episodes may count the most, but voters are humans, and humans tend to keep more than one factor in mind when they vote.

Previous winner: Jim Parsons, 'The Big Bang Theory' (CBS)

Actor, comedy

Will and Should Win: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

There are some fine actors in this category -and in Louis C.K., an actor who was also nominated this year for his equally fine work as a producer, writer, and director. But it's a comedy award, and that tips the scales to the man who's giving the funniest performance - and who has helped make his show the most popular comedy on television. And that man is Parsons.

Previous winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, 'Veep' (HBO)

Actress, comedy

Will and should win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO)

It may be dangerous to underestimate Orange's appeal in Hollywood, but you still have to think that anyone watching Schilling's submitted episode will think she's giving a dramatic performance in what is, essentially, a drama. You could say the same for Nurse Jackie, perhaps, but Falco is funny in that show in ways Schilling simply is not.

As for the other nominees, it's clear voters love them as they keep nominating them. But they've never loved Dunham or Poehler enough to actually give them an Emmy, and that's unlikely to change this year. In fact, considering how averse the Emmys are to change, the scale tips to Louis-Dreyfus, who has won the last two years in a row. Even people who don't particularly like Veep like her in it, and that's not an easy trick to pull off.

Previous winner: Tony Hale, 'Veep' (HBO)

Supporting actor, comedy

Will and Should Win: Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox)

Ferguson is wildly deserving and shamefully overdue. But he's up against Braugher, which means he will probably continue to be overdue.

Previous winner: Merritt Wever, 'Nurse Jackie' (HBO)

Supporting actress, comedy

Will and Should Win: Allison Janney, Mom (CBS)

Mulgrew is so good in Orange, she might be able to overcome the show's not-a-comedy stigma. And maybe she will next year. But this is Janney's year. (She already won the guest-actress Emmy for Masters of Sex).

If Emmy is lucky, August's awards will fix some of the mess created by July's nominations.

As you'll see Monday when they air on NBC (8 ET/5 PT), the Emmys are even more of a mess than usual. An influx of original programming from a host of new sources has made the races ever more competitive — and encouraged some of the competitors to obviously and egregiously bend the rules, shopping around for categories they think they have the best chance to win.

So Netflix calls Orange Is the New Black a comedy, to keep it out of the way of the company's House of Cards, and Showtime converts Shameless into a comedy, in hopes it will fare better there than it did as a drama last year. HBO calls the eight-episode run of True Detective a series, even though neither the actors, characters or story will continue, and the final five episodes of Treme a miniseries, even though all those elements carried over from the three seasons before.

This, as they say, is what happens when you allow the inmates to run — and fund — the asylum. So it would be nice if, next year, the powers that be stepped up and exercised a bit of power, not to mention judgment.

USA TODAY’s TV critic Robert Bianco tells Carly Mallenbaum why this year’s award winners are more unpredictable than usual, and shares his picks for best drama, comedy and mini-series.

What we're looking for is consistency. If True Detective was a series, then so were Fargo and American Horror Story, both of which are in the miniseries category. If Treme was a miniseries, than so was the final run of Breaking Bad.

For now, however, all the members can do is to avoid rewarding the worst examples of Emmy gamesmanship. They can't, alas, write in shows that should have been nominated in the drama category, such as The Good Wife, The Americans and Masters of Sex, but they can at least stop True Detective from moving past nominee to winner.

Will they? The truth is, it's almost impossible to say, because in typically confusing Emmy fashion, the people who chose those winners are not the same people who chose the nominees.

All Academy members are eligible to cast nominating ballots in the Best Drama category. But if they want to help pick the winner, they have to be chosen to serve on the judging panel — and they're not eligible if they've judged that category more than two years in a row.

They also have to agree to watch the submitted episodes, which they may indeed do, even though they're now doing so at home in private rather than in public as a group. But if you think they base their decisions only on those episodes, without any influence from friendships, working relationships, fame, fandom, or other biases, well, you have a different understanding of human nature than I do.