Griffith by-election on the cards as Rudd quits

The former prime minister announced his resignation from Parliament yesterday, just two months after leading Labor to defeat but holding on to his own seat.

Mr Rudd won Griffith on September 7 despite a 5.4 per cent swing to LNP candidate Bill Glasson.

Griffith covers 60 square km of inner-city suburbs on the southside of the Brisbane River.

The electorate extends along the river from Morningside to Fairfield, and includes the suburbs of Bulimba, Norman Park, Carina, Holland Park, Coorparoo, Woolloongabba, Kangaroo Point, South Brisbane, West End, Dutton Park and Greenslopes.

When will a by-election be held?

ABC election analyst Antony Green says it is likely the by-election will be held in early 2014.

"At some point the Speaker will issue a writ, and then the campaign is a minimum of 33 days and the election is held on a Saturday," he told Spencer Howson.

"Given the current timing that means the first possible date is December 21. I think that's highly unlikely - I don't think anyone would want to be voting in the four days before Christmas.

"You'd think it's more likely that they'd put the whole process off until early next year. They're not going to be asking for nominations and having people campaigning over Christmas and New Year, so I think you'd be looking at the earliest, the very end of January or early February."

There is no latest date that the writ can be issued.

"There's nothing in the constitution that says when a by-election has to be held. It can be several months," Green says.

"I heard one person suggest it might be held at the same time as any re-election in Western Australia. But we've got absolutely no idea of the timetable of that at the moment, so I wouldn't be too certain that those things would be combined."

Who will run in the by-election?

At the general election, Dr Glasson had said he would be interested in running again if Mr Rudd resigned.

Antony Green says historical trends are for oppositions to retain their seats at by-elections.

"The last time the government won a seat off an opposition [at a federal by-election] was in 1920," Green says.

"It doesn't happen very often. It's very rare for governments to gain seats at by-elections.

"But Bill Glasson is certainly high profile and a respected candidate, so he'd be a formidable opponent for whoever becomes a Labor candidate."

Media reports named Brisbane City Councillor Shayne Sutton, former state MP Di Farmer, and lawyer Terri Butler as possible Labor candidates, although Cr Sutton has since declared she will not stand.

Labor state secretary Anthony Chisholm says it is up to the local branch to decide who the party's candidate will be.

The Greens have announced Geoff Ebbs - their candidate in September - will recontest the seat.

Griffith was contested by 11 candidates at the general election, including candidates from the Palmer United Party (PUP), Katter's Australia Party, Family First, the Socialist Alliance, Rise Up Australia, the Secular Party and the Stable Population Party.

Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens were the only parties that won more than 5 per cent of the vote.

What do constituents think?

"I imagine there's a large portion of voters who do get sick of by-elections, but for me it's just another opportunity to have my say and have my vote count," she says.

"I just assumed that we would have a by-election at some point, assuming the ALP lost the election, which they did."

She says she'd like to know how candidates stand on issues of sustainable transport - and hopes to see Labor pick a left-wing candidate.

"I'd like to see Terri Butler get up for the ALP, and I think she'd probably have a good chance up against Bill Glasson," she says.

"It'll be interesting to see how many people were voting for Kevin Rudd because it was Kevin Rudd, and how many people weren't voting for Kevin Rudd because it was Kevin Rudd. It'll be interesting to see how much the primary vote changes."

Your say

Carolyn: "I am disappointed, but I understand. He has been the best local member & his dedication & service to our local community will be hard to replace."

Andrew: "As a constituent of Kevin Rudd MP, and originally a fan, I hope we get a member who is actually prepared to spend time in his constituency for something other than photo ops before 'zipping' off interstate or overseas. I would love to know how much in the way of expenses he will be claiming for the non-sitting period since the election despite being a backbencher."

Jennifer: "Kevin has been a fantastic local member and history will judge him kindly for steering Australia through the GFC, the apology to the stolen generations and having the guts to price carbon. Good luck Kevin."

Hayley: "On a political level it doesn't seem to make much of a difference except for the fact that my electorate is likely to have a by-election and the Liberal [candidate] might get in. That is not a good thing. Even if Labor retains Griffith I wonder if Kev's replacement will be as effective. Say what you want about Rudd federally but he makes a good local member and has for a long time."