Gilla

Relaterade

1 kommentar

1.Anna | 16 december 2007 kl. 11:26 e m

The most successful society the world has ever knownThe Nordic model mixes welfare and economic success, but Sweden’s social democrats are at risk from a loss of confidencePolly ToynbeeTuesday October 25, 2005The GuardianThe prime minister has been in power nine years and the people are tired of him. They say their not well-liked leader should have made way for someone else by now. A new conservative challenger to this long-standing government of the left is a young dynamic moderate, uniting the fractious forces of the right. So a social democratic government risks losing to that most lethal human instinct – boredom. The age-old ”time for a change” impulse may replace a successful government with something deliberately ill-defined on the right, just for the sake of a fresh face.Sounds familiar? This is Sweden facing elections next year with the right ahead in the polls – though the gap is narrowing. How can the government of Goran Persson be at risk when by most standards it is doing well? Growth rates are predicted to stay at around 3%, soaring above the EU. Interest rates are just 1.5%, exports boom while its giant companies – Volvo, Ikea, Tetra Pak, Eriksson – are so far resisting the pull to outsource to developing countries. Unemployment is felt to be high – officially 5.8% but higher, counting those on employment schemes – yet falling from over 8% when Persson took over.Public services are second to none, with universal childcare staffed by graduates, schools turning out far more highly educated cadres than in the UK and a good health service (though people grumble here, too, about booking GP appointments). Stockholm gleams in the autumn sunshine with that pride in beautiful streets, public transport, fine buildings and open spaces that proclaim the value of citizenship from every paving stone. With a tax take of 51% of GDP, so they should. What’s more, Sweden runs a handsome cash surplus.How does the Nordic model work? It supports open markets and job flexibility, with all the restructuring employers need to shake out their workforce to match changing demands. But that only wins the backing of strong unions because of the generosity of the benefits safety-net to cushion frequent, unsettling change. This pact between state, employers and workforce is the magic ingredient. Lavish public services and benefits are no add-on: they are the secret to economic success. Cut back the social provision and the edifice totters, which is why the Swedish left is so anti-EU, wary of any supposedly Anglo-Saxon move to interfere.So why is the government not riding triumphantly towards the next election? There are warnings here for Labour. Somewhere along the line Sweden, and to some extent the other highly successful Nordic economies, have lost their unquestioning sense of purpose and pride. Older social democrats grumble that the young take all this for granted, without realising how exceptional their society is. Bogged down in the daily details of governing, renewing the vision after years in power seems beyond the social democrats. So they are vulnerable to a young Turk declaring himself a moderate on the right. He proclaims that his coalition accepts that Swedes don’t want cuts in tax or public services. For at least the first year he has promised no tax-spend changes. Whistling in the dark, the social democrats declare themselves pleased at how far they have pulled the right over to their side of the centre ground. But last time the right was in power, in the early 90s, it did lasting harm to social democratic institutions, things not easily repaired later.It is curious to observe Blair and Milburn misusing Sweden as an example of a social democratic nation privatising and outsourcing its public services. If Sweden does it, what can possibly be wrong with it, they ask disingenuously. But here is the real story. It was the right that did these things last time they were in power. They allowed selection in schools, which are now far more class- segregated in a country that once prided itself on relative classlessness in education. The right allowed people to set up small private schools within the state sector – almost all used exclusively by the upper middle classes. It was the right that privatised hospitals, though only three – one to a private company, two not-for-profits. So the social democrats find it ironic that Tony Blair brought the manager of one of them into the Labour party conference to prove that even Sweden privatises its health service. The social democrats have managed to pass a law forbidding any company making money out of health service provision: private providers can only get 90% of the state price per patient while, oddly, Labour offers private providers an extra 15%. It was the right that let private providers set up childcare within state provision, mostly less good. The rightwing government lasted a short time, but did what many see as irreversible harm. Blair seems to follow the Swedish right, not the social democrats.If the Swedish social democrats are in danger of losing the election, it is not because there is any public appetite for privatisation. The right has had to drop all such talk. It is barely distinguishable from the left, promising no tax-and-spend changes, wearing sheep’s clothing. The danger to the social democrats is that people get bored. They forget and a new face with new vague promises to cut unemployment seems to be making headway. The right has been in power for nine of the past 73 years, gaining office only when things were going badly. For the right to win when things are going well would be perverse.But there is a frisson of fear in the national air. The Swedes seem to lack self-confidence, intimidated by global neocon warnings. Despite their strong economy, they worry. Will globalisation strike? Can it be navigated if it does? Where Sweden and other Nordics should boast of an economic model far more successful than the rest of the EU, they seem to be losing their nerve in these the most successful societies the world has ever known. If the Swedes vote the right in they will be like people with vertigo who so fear falling they decide to jump and be done with it. The right has no particular answer to future forebodings, but it is always good at spreading alarm. When the left loses its optimism, it risks losing office.This is a contest Labour is watching closely. Young Labour ministers have close connections with the Persson government, as they ponder how a long-serving government renews and refreshes itself in office. Good governments can fall if they lose progressive, forward trajectory. The social democrats say they will regain self-confidence and win. Labour, too, needs to guard against spreading more fear than hope.polly.toynbee@guardian.co.uk