The Formosa Alliance’s October 2018 rally. Photo credit: Brian Hioe

In its original form, the Formosa Alliance can be viewed as an alliance formed between elders of the Taiwanese independence movement and younger pro-Taiwan activists of the Sunflower Movement generation. Third Force parties as the NPP, SDP, and Taiwan Statebuilding Party were all participants in the Formosa Alliance’s campaign for the referendum, which called for Taiwanese athletes to participate as athletes of “Taiwan” instead of “Chinese Taipei” in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

They, along with FTV chair Kuo Pei-hung, the convenor of the alliance, and influential political mega-donor Koo Kwang-ming, who was not a signatory of the letter but indicated support for it, then later chose to endorse former premier William Lai over Tsai as the DPP’s presidential candidate in 2020. This put them at odds with younger post-Sunflower Movement activists, who generally are also in favor of Taiwanese independence, but who leaned toward support for Tsai Ing-wen.

Likewise, despite the fact that the Formosa Alliance had taken progressive public stances such as advocacy of gay marriage because of the original presence of many young people in the organization, many pan-Green traditionalists are opposed to gay marriage. It is very probable that the endorsement of gay marriage by older members of the Formosa Alliance⁠—many of which are members of the Presbyterian Church, which is divided on the issue of gay marriage in Taiwan⁠—was hesitant and only done in order to try and win over young people.

Indeed, the split is observable in that the original Formosa Alliance Facebook page was eventually shut down, despite its usefulness as a platform for outreach that had thousands of followers, because it eventually drifted toward constantly sharing attacks on Tsai Ing-wen. This led to backlash from youth activists who saw the Formosa Alliance as having becoming far too conservative for them to identify with.

Namely, young people generally do not have landlines and so polling on the basis of only landlines disproportionately skews toward an older demographic. As such, it is now standard practice for academic polling to also include cell phones in order to have a polling sample more balanced between older and younger individuals and individuals of different social backgrounds.

Former premier William Lai while campaigning during DPP presidential primaries. Photo credit: William Lai/Facebook

This would not be to Lai’s advantage, given his stronger standing among demographically older supporters and Tsai’s stronger standing among demographically younger supporters. Consequently, Lai alleged that the Tsai administration was attempting to manipulate polling through the inclusion of cell phones, with the claim that this would allow people that owned more than one cell phone to possibly be polled multiple times.

That Ou is suddenly a founding member of the Formosa Alliance, as the organization makes moves to formally become a political party to challenge the DPP, has raised questions as to whether the Formosa Alliance has even become influenced by United Front activities from the inside out.

Either way, apart from general fears that the Formosa Alliance could split the pan-Green vote by fielding its own presidential and legislative candidates, it is feared that the Formosa Alliance may possess the financial resources and media connections to conduct substantial outreach on behalf of whoever it backs, given the wealth possesses by many pro-independence elders.

Though moves have been made to oust Kuo within FTV, Kuo Pei-hong may possibly still be able to use his influence on the FTV media empire in order to influence media perceptions of Formosa Alliance candidates. Kuo has been long rumored to have presidential ambitions and it is possible that he may be the Formosa Alliance’s presidential candidate, if it were to decide to run one.

Photo credit: Brian Hioe

Furthermore, one also observes that the editorial leadership of many pan-Green media outlets, including the Liberty Times, Taiwan’s most widely circulated newspaper, seemed vaguely to support William Lai over Tsai. In a similar vein, they could also back the Formosa Alliance. This usually occurs because the editorial leadership of such publications is also older and more conservative-leaning, much more so than the younger reporters that do the majority of the writing for such publications.

Another wrinkle has been introduced into 2020 presidential and legislative elections, then. It remains to be seen what the effect of this will be down the line.

Brian Hioe was one of the founding editors of New Bloom. He is a freelance writer on social movements and politics, and occasional translator. A New York native and Taiwanese-American, he has an MA in East Asian Languages and Cultures from Columbia University and graduated from New York University with majors in History, East Asian Studies, and English Literature. He was Democracy and Human Rights Service Fellow at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy from 2017 to 2018.

About New Bloom

New Bloom is an online magazine covering activism and youth politics in Taiwan and the Asia Pacific, founded in Taiwan in 2014 in the wake of the Sunflower Movement. We seek to put local voices in touch with international discourse, beginning with Taiwan.