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Saturday, May 3, 2014

The 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket

Morning folks,

With Punchestwon now finishing and the first Classic of the season today, we are well and truly into flat mode. This afternoon's Guineas is a cracking renewal with most of last year's juvenile's taking part. The favourite will be hard to beat but at a nice price, I reckon Toormore has strong claims. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

TOORMORE
AIDAN O' Brien has described Australia,
the exciting son of Galileo and Ouija Board, as possibly the best horse he's
ever trained. On the face of it, that makes the three-year-old highly appealing
for this afternoon's 2000 Guineas
considering O’Brien’s already saddled six winners of that race not to mention
four Derby
winners. But I still feel it's best to judge a horse on what you see on the
racecourse rather that what you hear from the yard and you also have to
consider that his breeding suggests he’ll shine most brightly over the middle
distances as he matures, rather than a mile. As such, he's opposable today at
11/4 although his excellent juvenile campaign (two wins from three including a
Group Three) does imply there’s plenty to look forward to this year. Perhaps
he'll be one to back later in the season but I'd rather see some more action
from the colt before I commit any hard earned cash to a docket with Australia’s
name on it. Stablemate War Command (8/1) is actually rated 2lbs superior
although that one does have five races under the belt including a victory last
time in the Group One Dewhurst at Newmarket. A
horse he beat in that race, Outstrip, franked the form by winning at the
Breeder's Cup and with further improvement likely, War Command shouldn't be too
far off today. John Gosden’s unbeaten Kingman absolutely routed his rivals in
the Greenham last month and it was good to see that the surgery he had to have
a chip removed from a joint at the end of last season has had no ill effects.
He could be the real deal and it's hard to write anything negative about him
today, other than to say his price of 6/4 is a little short considering this
year's Classic is shaping up to be a very strong renewal indeed. Richard
Hannon, whose father trained three Guineas
winners, throws three darts at the board as he attempts to win his first
Classic. Of those, Toormore
definitely stands out and is tipped at 15/2 to follow up his success in the
Craven stakes here three weeks ago. Toormore also beat Outstrip last season and
a subsequent trip to Ireland for the National
Stakes at the Curragh proved lucrative where an eye catching performance
confirmed his status as one of the best juveniles around. While Be Ready's flop
made the selection's job much easier in the Craven last time, he won the race
with plenty in hand although I do admit it wasn't the flashiest performance in
the world. Still, he seems the type of horse that can be relied upon to get the
job done regardless of style and I'm confident he's good enough to give the
favourite a run for his money at a nice price this afternoon.
Earlier on the same card, Irish Derby winner Trading Leather looks a solid bet at 5/4 in the Group Two Qatar
Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes (3.10). One of the leading juveniles in 2012, the
Teofilo colt will wear the blue of Godolphin for the first time following his
sale at the end of last season. Placed in the International Stakes at York and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at
Ascot, the four-time winner was last seen when
third in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He was no match for the
Fugue and Al Kazeem on the day but gave a good account of himself nonetheless
and the step down in class here should do the trick.

Each-way
THE opening Qatar Racing Suffolk Stakes Handicap at Newmarket
(2.05) is a tricky enough affair but Roserrow
offers some each-way value at 12/1 representing the Andrew Balding yard.
The gelding went up 2lbs for his second place in handicap at Nottingham
last time which isn't too harsh, and this useful handicapper rarely runs a bad
race.

DO THE DOUBLE
RACING: SIR Michael Stoute's Waila
should take all the beating in the Listed Fillies' EBF Stallions Daisy Warwick
Stakes at Goodwood (2.20), priced around 6/5. While she finished well down the
field in a Group One at Ascot last time, the
experience will have done her good and the lightly raced filly should find
herself back in the winners' enclosure today.
SOCCER: WEST Ham's defence has looked particularly weak of late and they
haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten league matches. Tottenham, who have scored twelve goals
in their last four games, pay a visit this afternoon should be a safe enough
bet at 10/11 with Tim Sherwood’s men now two wins away from equalling their
highest Premier League points total of 72.

2 comments:

I note from your blog that you've started automated betting, presumably using an API tool like Gruss or Bet Angel linked to Excel.

Based on my experience of using Gruss for about four and a half years, I've found that if you keep your logic as simple as possible then there'll be few opportunities for error to creep in to your model and you should be okay. From what I can see on your blog, you're going about it the right way, proceeding with caution.

The forums at Gruss and Bet Angel can include some very useful info and help on automating your algos, but like any forum it can sometimes be difficult finding the nuggets. Osknows at Gruss has forgotten more about Excel than any of us will ever learn, and you might find it useful to search his posts — but again, there are a lot of them.

I understand that you're finishing off your book on exchange trading, is that correct? Do you have an estimated release date?

Personally, I'm a layer and not a trader, operating with relatively very modest stakes. I doubt that I'd choose to change my modus operandi, but I also doubt that I wouldn't be able to learn something useful and hopefully profitable from a well-written book on trading.

Thanks for taking the time to post to your blog, it makes interesting reading.

Thanks for the comments Craig. Gruss is great - the lads there have been very helpful to me over the years. The books is now finished and I'm hoping to have it published later in the year - I'll stick up a post here when it's available. Best of luck with the laying - Wayne

About Me

WAYNE Bailey was born in Dublin where he still lives with daughter. A librarian by profession, Wayne has always had a passion for betting and trading and has spent various periods throughout his life as a professional gambler. In 2007, he graduated from University College Dublin with a degree in social science and information studies and four years later, he completed a diploma in financial trading from the Irish Institute of Financial Trading. More recently, he studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind. Wayne is a regular contributor to various newspapers and websites in the UK and Ireland, and he currently pens the Betting Ring column which enjoys a large dedicated following every Saturday in Ireland’s largest selling newspaper The Irish Independent. Wayne's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' was published in 2014. Email: waynebaileyracing@gmail.com