Quotes of the day

posted at 8:01 pm on March 2, 2014 by Allahpundit

President Obama has warned Russia that “there will be costs” for a military intervention in Ukraine. But the United States has few palatable options for imposing such costs, and recent history has shown that when it considers its interests at stake, Russia has been willing to pay the price…

The administration could impose the same sort of banking sanctions that have choked Iran’s economy. And yet Europe, with its more substantial economic ties, could be reluctant to go along, and Mr. Obama may be leery of pulling the trigger on such a potent financial weapon, especially when he needs Russian cooperation on Syria and Iran.

“What can we do?” asked Fiona Hill, a Brookings Institution scholar who was the government’s top intelligence officer on Russia during the Georgia war when Mr. Putin deflected Western agitation. “We’ll talk about sanctions. We’ll talk about red lines. We’ll basically drive ourselves into a frenzy. And he’ll stand back and just watch it. He just knows that none of the rest of us want a war.”

***

A president who has made clear to the American public that the “tide of war is receding” has also made clear to foreign leaders, including opportunists in Russia, that he has no appetite for a new one. What is left is a vacuum once filled, at least in part, by the possibility of American force.

Rarely has a threat from a U.S. president been dismissed as quickly — and comprehensively — as Obama’s warning Friday night to Russian President Vladi­mir Putin.

***

Why did Obama publicly state that aggression in Ukraine would trigger “consequences”? Clearly he was telling Putin to recalculate the potential costs and benefits of an invasion. But Obama was ignoring a simple fact: Putin would incur almost any risk to avoid losing Ukraine. To put it another way: There are no consequences—none that the United States could credibly threaten—that would keep Putin from doing whatever it takes to hang on to Ukraine.

Neither side wants an escalation in violence and disorder. The question is how much each side is willing to accept an escalation in the pursuit of its vital interests. And in that equation, Obama and the EU do not hold strong hands.

***

“Stop going on television and trying to threaten thugs and dictators,” Graham said. “It is not your strong suit. Every time the president goes on national television and threatens Putin or anyone like Putin, everybody’s eyes roll, including mine. We have a weak and indecisive president that invites aggression.”

“President Obama needs to do something. How about this — suspend Russian membership in the G8 and the G20, at least for a year, starting right now. And for every day that they stay in Crimea, add to the suspension. Do something.”

***

“Yesterday, from various media, we heard how U.S. President Obama declared that Russia would dearly pay for her politics,” Yury Vorobyov, the body’s deputy speaker, told an emergency session called to hold the war vote. “I think these words of the U.S. president are a direct threat, and he crossed a red line, he insulted the Russian people.”

The phrase “red line” was no accident, and not one thrown around often in Russia. It was a direct reference to Obama’s much pilloried foreign policy disaster over Syria, something largely forgotten at home but constantly referenced abroad — from Moscow to Tel Aviv to everywhere in between…

The question now is whether Obama can look towards the long-term. Obama has tried to play nice with Russia, and been rebuffed at every turn. Russia will never cooperate on Syria. It will eventually try to disrupt Obama’s “reset” with Iran. Putin has turned anti-LGBT into a tool of foreign policy. Now he is sending troops into Ukraine.

Obama has made dialogue and cooperation a cornerstone of his approach to the world. But what if some countries don’t reciprocate?

***

Too much of the Washington policy establishment looks around the world and sees only reflections of its own enlightened self. That’s natural and perhaps inevitable to some degree. The people who rise through the competitive bureaucracies of American academic, media and think tank life tend to be those who’ve most thoroughly absorbed and internalized the set of beliefs and behavioral norms that those institutions embody and respect. On the whole, those beliefs and norms have a lot going for them. It would not be an improvement if America’s elite institutions started to look more like their counterparts in Russia or Zimbabwe.

But while those ideas and beliefs help people rise through the machinery of the American power system, they can get in the way when it comes to understanding the motives and calculations of people like President Putin. The best of the journalists, think tankers and officials will profit from the Crimean policy fiasco and will never again be as smug or as blind as so much of Washington was last week. The mediocre majority will go on as before.

***

We didn’t think Putin would do this. Why, exactly? This has often puzzled me about Western analysis of Russia. It is often predicated on wholly Western logic: surely, Russia won’t invade [Georgia, Ukraine, whoever’s next] because war is costly and the Russian economy isn’t doing well and surely Putin doesn’t want another hit to an already weak ruble; because Russia doesn’t need to conquer Crimea if Crimea is going to secede on its own; Russia will not want to risk the geopolitical isolation, and “what’s really in it for Russia?”—stop. Russia, or, more accurately, Putin, sees the world according to his own logic, and the logic goes like this: it is better to be feared than loved, it is better to be overly strong than to risk appearing weak, and Russia was, is, and will be an empire with an eternal appetite for expansion. And it will gather whatever spurious reasons it needs to insulate itself territorially from what it still perceives to be a large and growing NATO threat. Trying to harness Russia with our own logic just makes us miss Putin’s next steps…

Putin and those around him are, fundamentally, terminal pessimists. They truly believe that there is an American conspiracy afoot to topple Putin, that Russian liberals are traitors corrupted by and loyal to the West, they truly believe that, should free and fair elections be held in Russia, their countrymen would elect bloodthirsty fascists, rather than democratic liberals. To a large extent, Putin really believes that he is the one man standing between Russia and the yawning void. Putin’s Kremlin is dark and scary, and, ultimately, very boring…

Russia’s next target is eastern Ukraine. Because pessimism conquers all, don’t bet that Putin is going to stop once he wrests Crimea from Kiev’s orbit. Eastern, Russian-speaking Ukraine—and all its heavy industry—is looking pretty good right now. And if you’re thinking “Why would Putin take eastern Ukraine?,” well, you haven’t been reading very carefully.

***

Any [Russian] invasion—which is what it would be—of a vast country of 46 million in the heart of Europe, sharing borders with NATO allies Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, would pose a major security challenge for the United States and other key European powers. Even without further Russian action, allies such as the Baltic countries will be seeking U.S. reassurance. Lithuania has already asked for Article IV consultations under the NATO Treaty in response to a clear threat to its security. These countries likely will also ask for hard reassurances—such as deployments of U.S. and other allied troops and equipment on their territory—as Turkey did in 2012 when Syria shot down a Turkish jet. They will also need help to shore up their eastern borders and prepare for possible flows of refugees from Ukraine. The Baltic states will probably ask for similar reassurances. One can also expect cyber attacks and intrusions, false alarms and an atmosphere of tension the likes of which have not been seen since the worst days of the Cold War…

The break in the West’s relations with Russia is bound to be deep and lasting. The G-8 will be its first casualty with the Western powers likely to reconstitute the G-7 in its original form as a direct rebuff to Putin. Other important international mechanisms —the U.N. Security Council, ad hoc diplomatic efforts on Syria, the P5+1 process on Iran, the Six-Party talks on North Korea, and so on—will be filled with renewed acrimony and dysfunction. Some may break down entirely. Inevitably, there will be congressional calls for sanctions against Russia, which the White House will be hard-pressed to resist no matter how much it may want to preserve the shreds of cooperation with Russia on Iran, Syria or Afghanistan. The West and Russia are in uncharted waters.

***

The Crimea crisis will not pass soon. Kiev is unlikely to agree to Crimea’s secession, even if backed by clear popular will: this would be discounted because of the “foreign occupation” of the peninsula. The crisis is also expanding to include other players, notably the United States. So far, there has been no military confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian forces, but if they clash, this will not be a repeat of the five-day war in the South Caucasus, as in 2008. The conflict will be longer and bloodier, with security in Europe put at its highest risk in a quarter century.

Even if there is no war, the Crimea crisis is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the west and lead to changes in the global power balance, with Russia now in open competition with the United States and the European Union in the new eastern Europe. If this happens, a second round of the cold war may ensue as a punishment for leaving many issues unsolved – such as Ukraine’s internal cohesion, the special position of Crimea, or the situation of Russian ethnics in the newly independent states; but, above all, leaving unresolved Russia’s integration within the Euro-Atlantic community. Russia will no doubt pay a high price for its apparent decision to “defend its own” and “put things right”, but others will have to pay their share, too.

A year later [in 1956], when Moscow sent two Red Army tank divisions to quell anti-Communist protesters in Budapest, killing as many as 30,000 people, the cry went up for action. “What are the West and the United Nations going to do?” one despairing protester asked an American reporter.

The answer: nothing. Counteraction would only provoke Moscow to tighten its noose and perhaps “go back on de-Stalinization,” Eisenhower explained…

Calculations like these are the true prologue to the approach that Mr. Obama seems to have adopted in trouble spots from Syria to Ukraine.

***

Ukraine isn’t a country: it’s a Frankenstein monster composed of pieces of dead empires, stitched together by Stalin. It has never had a government in the Western sense of the term after the collapse of the Soviet Union gave it independence, just the equivalent of the family offices for one predatory oligarch after another–including the “Gas Princess,” Yulia Tymoshenko. It has a per capital income of $3,300 per year, about the same as Egypt and Syria, and less than a tenth of the European average. The whole market capitalization of its stock exchange is worth less than the Disney Company. It’s a basket case that claims to need $35 billion to survive the next two years. Money talks and bullshit walks. Who wants to ask the American taxpayer for $35 billion for Ukraine, one of the most corrupt economies on earth? How about $5 billion? Secretary of State Kerry is talking about $1 billion in loan guarantees, and the Europeans are talking a similar amount. That’s not diplomacy. It’s a clown show…

What should we do (or what should we have done)? It’s obvious that the Ukrainians have no faith in their democratic institutions, having staged a coup against a democratically elected president. In that case, the next step is constitutional reform. The existing system has broken down and the people should choose a new one. But constitutional reform has to take into account the prospect of partition. Lviv and Sevastopol have about as much in common as, say, Bogota and Montreal. The West should encourage the Ukrainians to amend their democratic institutions in order to achieve a national consensus, which might mean a different sort of nation. If Crimea, for example, were to vote for partition, why object? If it voted against partition, that would put Putin on the spot. The West would have come off better by getting in front of the events rather than chasing them.

***

Russia sees an America distracted: Putin’s Ukrainian gambit was a shock to the U.S. foreign policy establishment. They prefer talking about China, or participating in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Russia sees an America vulnerable: in Afghanistan, in Syria and on Iran—a United States that desperately needs Russian support to continue shipping its supplies, host any peace conference or enforce its sanctions…

[Putin] knows that millions of Russians will cheer him as a hero if he returns them Crimea. He knows that European bureaucrats will issue shrill statements and then get back to business helping Russian elites buy London town houses and French chateaux. He knows full well that the United States can no longer force Europe to trade in a different way. He knows full well that the United States can do nothing beyond theatrical military maneuvers at most.

“He is not going to gain by this,” Kerry continued. “He may be able to have his troops for some period of time in Crimea unless he resolves this. But the fact is, he’s going to lose on the international stage, Russia is going to lose, the Russian people are going to lose. He’s going to lose all of the glow that came out of the Olympics, his $60 billion extravaganza. He is not going to have a Sochi G8. He may not even remain in the G8 if this continues. He may find himself with asset freezes on Russian business, American business may pull back. There may be a further tumble of the ruble. There’s a huge price to pay. The United States is united, Russia is isolated. That is not a position of strength.”

If you look at the White House read out, which I encourage everybody to read and try and piece through the gobbledegook, Obama said Russia was “violating international law.” That’s just about the most serious thing in the world to Barack Obama and its probably on a long list of priorities for Putin, something pretty close to the bottom.

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You quote one, and then the next one with the previous one, and on and on…

OmahaConservative on March 3, 2014 at 10:09 PM

Yeah, but you have to quote them all together one after another to stack them. Otherwise they end up being separate quotes. I have got to figure out a better way to describe it. HeII I thought the short link would give him the most trouble.

1001 comments on last nights QOTD, I think frank deserves a round of applause.
Cindy Munford on March 3, 2014 at 10:16 PM
If we must applaud trollish behavior…
OmahaConservative on March 3, 2014 at 10:22 PM

Please point to said behavior. I’ll point to this:

frankie. Nobody here gives two shits what you think. That freakin’ old broad was actually worse than you. Coming in here making one attack per night until her ‘reinforcements’ came around.
Bottom line is this: First impressions are everything. I find it cute you yapping about this supposed ‘tribalism’. Yet I do not seem to recall Newtie, Doc Holiday, catnipjoe, oscarwilde or any one of the newbies being denied ‘entry into the cabal’.
You are simply a piece of crap who immediately started running his mouth in a negative fashion.
And unless you happen to be a husband to one of the shrews, you really need to shut your yap because you don’t know the backstory.
It’s obvious to me that, in addition to being technically illiterate you are basically incapable of playing nice to others. If all you intend to be is a disruptive influence, do us all a favor and get the hell out now.
Allah has been informed of the story (not by me, but by others)and I suspect he’s gonna keep an eye out, which he shouldn’t have to do. But your type makes it necessary.
If I have to guess, you’ll hang around just to see what you can get away with and if you get banned? Meh. No skin off your nose, right? I mean, that’s just the type of ‘person’ you are. I just hope nobody that gets along well with the folks in here have to pay the price for you to get your kicks, boy.
Lanceman on March 3, 2014 at 1:06 PM

I don’t understand your indignation, frankie. I have simply come to the logical conclusion that you are a liar. A search of the database finds no ‘frank’ posting at HA until the last OR.
And if you’ll lie about that, God knows what else you’re lying about. One thing’s for certain, we (the regulars here) don’t take kindly to one of our own being harassed by some punk who simply ‘just shows up’.
Lanceman on March 3, 2014 at 11:48 AM
Hmmm….
I was sitting here in Northeastern Ohio watching the Buckeyes get the heck kicked out of them when I decided to fire up my laptop and watch the game peaking over it to see if it would give Tress and the boys some much needed luck!
Allah you turned my despair into glee when I saw that registration was open! I registered and watched the rest of the game with one eye on my e-mail waiting for my password e-mail to show up.
Imagine my despair when the Bucks lost and my e-mail hadn’t shown up.
I started to drink away my sorrows and wait for the e-mail but when I noticed that the registration was closed and their were others posting who registered after I did, another dream crushed (Buckeyes this time last year, Cavaliers, Indians, Browns and Buckeyes AGAIN) I thought and I was crushed.
Thankfully I checked the spam section of my e-mail where I found the password.
Allah you managed to turn what would have been a night of intense sorrow for me into and evening of great joy! Tress and the boys didn’t win this evening but I did! Thanks, Allah
frank on January 8, 2008 at 2:38 AMhttp://hotair.com/archives/2008/01/07/comment-registration-is-now-open-4/comment-page-7/

You were saying, Mr. Alex Jones?
If memory serves the Queen Mum & I had to shape shift into reptiles shortly after I posted this. What with the black helicopters chasing us & all.
frank on March 3, 2014 at 12:26 PM

frank on March 3, 2014 at 10:46 PM
Your falling back into victim mode, get over it.
Cindy Munford on March 3, 2014 at 10:54 PM

Yet you bashed me after I was more than happy to drop everything and take the high road based on your advice & still are silent in re the main offenders.

bluegill on March 3, 2014 at 1:49 PM
Kiddo, how in the world can you appreciate comments that are totally void of substance and only criticize others? You’re better than that and at least you don’t bother to comment on things that don’t interest you instead of being annoyed at those who do. Geez, one thread out of a day that is free wheeling is hardly the end of the world.
Cindy Munford on March 3, 2014 at 5:23 PM

I never said I was neutral, I was just trying to help you get past it. bluegill has made advancements on very substantive comments, you only want to talk about yourself and what you like and don’t like about specific folks at Hot Air. At the risk of hurting your feelings, no one cares. It would probably benefit everyone, except you, if we ignored you.

frank on March 3, 2014 at 11:05 PM
I never said I was neutral, I was just trying to help you get past it. bluegill has made advancements on very substantive comments, you only want to talk about yourself and what you like and don’t like about specific folks at Hot Air. At the risk of hurting your feelings, no one cares. It would probably benefit everyone, except you, if we ignored you.
Cindy Munford on March 3, 2014 at 11:20 PM

I sense you think I only comment on QOTD. Not the case. And my comments on QOTD are not reflective of that either.