i have been noticing on the models that a strong Great Lakes cutter with a strong cold front push its way into the eastern US with a big dip in the jet with alot of energy in place

MSLP 1000mb 6hr precip

250mb Streamlines

That's also close to what I am forecasting, in my discussion for the NYC Area, I noted that I am expecting dry conditions until mid-October as a large-scale weather event takes place for the NE. Some places in Canada could see heavy wet snow. This could also begin a colder period of time with widespread freeze.

Back to the severe weather potential, I do not expect much severe weather, if yes then it would probably be isolated at the southern edge of the storm, but this is a possibility we need to consider, as by late fall there are usually big storms.

Using a 5:1 ratio the GFS shows a little snowstorm for western and central NY at 252 hours out which isn't in fantasy range. Of course the GFS is gonna change and that storm will be out of there one day then right back in the models the next day, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Using a 5:1 ratio the GFS shows a little snowstorm for western and central NY at 252 hours out which isn't in fantasy range. Of course the GFS is gonna change and that storm will be out of there one day then right back in the models the next day, but it's something to keep an eye on.

yea for sure. could be the first snow in the northeast. aswell as the possibilty of strong storms along that cold front. but in the later hours it has this nice cold pocket trapped in the low which can surely bring snow. even so some lake event might kick in by the show of this

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FIC ( Forecaster In Charge) Of Analystwx.com

Home For Mesoscale, Winter, And Tropical Weather For The United States

yea for sure. could be the first snow in the northeast. aswell as the possibilty of strong storms along that cold front. but in the later hours it has this nice cold pocket trapped in the low which can surely bring snow. even so some lake event might kick in by the show of this

Definitely! Using 10:1 ratios (a little extreme for October) it brings western and central new york up to 4-6 inches of snow which would be a record . I'm not saying that this won't happen but the likely hood of 4-6 inches is unlikely. However if the models show constancy i do think 2-3 inches is possible. And I think lake effect will really get cranking off Lake Erie with a SW flow, Buffalo and the northern suburbs could get hammered if this were to play out right!

Definitely! Using 10:1 ratios (a little extreme for October) it brings western and central new york up to 4-6 inches of snow which would be a record . I'm not saying that this won't happen but the likely hood of 4-6 inches is unlikely. However if the models show constancy i do think 2-3 inches is possible. And I think lake effect will really get cranking off Lake Erie with a SW flow, Buffalo and the northern suburbs could get hammered if this were to play out right!

haha were all hoping are we. but this is is the third day so far i have seen this storm even tho its so far out.

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FIC ( Forecaster In Charge) Of Analystwx.com

Home For Mesoscale, Winter, And Tropical Weather For The United States

sure did well away. but it will go back and forth until it makes up its mind

That's okay lol, I remember about a 2 weeks ago when the GFS just started to recognize this cold outbreak that happened the past few days. It showed it cold then really warm then really cold ect... till eventually it came up with a cold solution which showed up to be true over the past few days here in the GL and NE.

I think we all learned last year that relying on the GFS snowfall accumulation charts was not the way to go. They are not very accurate at all. I know there are a few that live and die by them but that is because they show what you want to see.If you were using the 6z GFS model run for that chart of snowfall totals that you posted...here is your temperatures for 18 Z which is the time frame that the chart is showing...

As you can plainly see temperatures are really not cold enough for snowfall

This is why forecasting storms so far into the long range beyond 180 hours becomes less and less accurate

I think we all learned last year that relying on the GFS snowfall accumulation charts was not the way to go. They are not very accurate at all. I know there are a few that live and die by them but that is because they show what you want to see.If you were using the 6z GFS model run for that chart of snowfall totals that you posted...here is your temperatures for 18 Z which is the time frame that the chart is showing...

As you can plainly see temperatures are really not cold enough for snowfall

This is why forecasting storms so far into the long range beyond 180 hours becomes less and less accurate

good point... I don't really like to go with the GFS with any storm further than 180 hours out either, however they are fun to look at

18 Z GFS actually has two S/Ws.....one that moves from the TX/OK panhandle on a NNW fashion heading into the upper ohio valley region and the lakes. However this low dies off and transfers its energy to a new low starting at 96 hours out. This new low then begins to organize over the Carolinas and then moves NE off the Delmarva region ...