Starting with Texans, draft’s top 10 murky

General manager Rick Smith has set the top of the Texans’ draft board.

The order of the top 10 picks in the 2014 NFL draft?

Perfectly unpredictable.

A made-for-TV event is expected to be drama-filled for draftniks when the first round begins Thursday at 7 p.m.

The Texans know who they’re taking, Smith said so last week, but the player is unknown to the public. The organization also is highly willing to trade away its selection, creating a domino effect that has left analysts and mock-draft gurus blindly guessing at what St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland will do at picks 2-5.

No consensus No. 1

Since January, the 2014 draft has been known for its once-in-a-decade depth. Two days before the Texans must announce who they’re taking at No. 1 – or if they’re trading out – the draft is being dominated by its volatility.

While South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel are regularly linked to the Texans’ top pick, some have theorized Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack could become a dark-horse selection, shaking up the top 10 even more.

“The people and personnel guys around the league I talk to, they don’t buy (the Texans) taking Mack with the No. 1 overall pick,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “They just feel like if you’re going to take Khalil Mack, you might as well just get out of there.”

Auburn offensive tackle Greg Robinson, Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, Clowney and Mack are widely viewed as elite prospects, ranking a level above everyone from Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans to Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert. Yet none of the athletes has been directly attached to a pro team, while the top 10 is still being affected by the uncertain draft values of quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Manziel, in addition to the Texans’ will-they-or-won’t-they stance.

The fluidity in the first round was seen again Monday, when former Texans GM Charley Casserly’s mock draft didn’t include Manziel in any of the first round’s 32 picks. On the same day, national reports linked Manziel to the Rams at No. 2 and the Browns at No. 4. Jeremiah’s latest mock, also published Monday, placed Manziel in Cleveland.

Falling star

Then there’s Teddy Bridgewater. The Louisville QB was once pegged by many to go to the Texans at No. 1. Now, Bridgewater could slide completely out of the first round, being forced to wait until Friday to hear his name called.

“As far as the face of the franchise, sometimes that’s not definable,” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said. “I look at Johnny Manziel. Whatever it is, he has it. … With Bridgewater, I don’t feel an ‘it’ factor. I see a really good kid. But I don’t know if he’s ready to be the guy.

“The Bridgewater thing has confused me; it’s confused teams. But I’d be surprised at this point if he goes in the first round.”

A lackluster 2013 draft featured some No. 1 suspense. But the pick eventually came down to two offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel, and was bad TV by NFL standards.

This year’s draft is the deepest in a decade and the most anticipated in recent memory. The Texans stand at the top. Their final decision will push the first domino, immediately causing others to fall.