Ignore reality: The top 14 reasons the Seahawks will win

By JIM MOORE, SPECIAL TO SEATTLEPI.COM

Published 10:00 pm, Thursday, January 13, 2011

In the past two weeks, the Go 2 Guy has been on an improbable run, correctly predicting that Washington would beat Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, and the Seahawks would beat the Saints in the first round of the NFL playoffs.

That's proof that a blind squirrel can find TWO acorns, and now it's time for a third -- I give to you another double-digit underdog that will not only cover the spread but win the game outright.

The Seahawks are going to beat the Bears on Sunday.

Conventional wisdom says that I will be wrong this time because reality eventually catches up to 8-9 teams and clueless columnists. Conventional wisdom says that 10-point favorites usually beat their opponents, especially when they're the superior team and playing at home. Conventional wisdom says that since the Seahawks have not won a road playoff game since 1983, they probably won't end the streak with their worst playoff team ever.

To which the Go 2 Guy says -- conventional wisdom can kiss my ass.

When you're a visionary like I am, you ignore some of the factors that scream: "JESUS, YOU IDIOT, THE BEARS ARE GOING TO WIN!" and focus on others that favor the Seahawks. You dismiss that the Bears aren't nearly as banged up as the Saints, and that Pete Carroll's team is generally awful on the road.

Instead, you zero in on the top 14 reasons why the Seahawks will beat the Bears and hope to hell you're right again:

14) Jay Cutler. This guy finished the year as the 16th-ranked quarterback and leader of the NFL's 30th-ranked offense. There seems to be no middle ground with him. He's either great or terrible, and I'm guessing in his first career playoff game, there's a stronger possibility that he'll stink it up than tear it up. QBs making their playoff debuts are 5-19 since 2003. Make it 5-20.

13) Precedent. The Seahawks won at Soldier Field 23-20 in October. Because they've won there once, they will have the confidence to do it again. Yes, for the umpteenth time, we know the Bears are a different team than they were then, going to a more-balanced run-pass offense. But the Seahawks are a better team too. No one says much about that.

12) Sack-happy Seahawks. They recorded six of their 22 road sacks in Chicago, using a variety of defensive-back blitzes, one of which resulted in a sack of Cutler in the end zone by Jordan Babineaux for a safety. The Bears have had their offensive line intact for the last nine games, but I still think that Raheem Brock and Chris Clemons will consistently bother Cutler and cause him to make poor throws. Chicago has allowed 56 sacks this year and run an astounding 130 plays for negative yardage.

11) Brandon Stokley. Sure, we could have made Mike Williams the 11th reason why the Seahawks will beat the Bears, but that's too obvious -- the Seahawks' top receiver had 10 catches for 123 yards against the Bears the last time and figures to be a prominent target this time around too. The 6-foot-5 Williams will have a huge height advantage on defensive backs D.J. Moore, who's 5-9, and Tim Jennings, who's 5-8. But Stokley's the move-the-chains guy. Matt Hasselbeck will look for him on third down for good reason -- 23 of Stokley's 31 receptions have been good for first downs.

10) Brandon Mebane. On and on, all week long we've heard from the Bears' camp that linebacker Lance Briggs did not play against the Seahawks in the first game, as if Chicago would have won 70-0 if he had. Briggs is a Pro Bowler so I get it, but the Seahawks played that game without one of their defensive tackles in Mebane. I'm guessing he'll combine with Colin Cole to make it difficult for Matt Forte to establish the ground game that Cutler desperately needs to be effective himself.

9) Matt Hasselbeck. Who would you rather have as your quarterback, a guy who's making his 11th playoff start or one who's making his first? Hasselbeck has played in Chicago's frozen tundra conditions before -- remember that 2007 playoff game in which the Seahawks nearly beat the Bears in overtime? And probably would have won in regulation if they could have picked up a 3rd-and-1 late in the fourth quarter?

I worry about Hasselbeck suffering an injury if he's thrown to the icy turf, but history says that that won't happen -- he wasn't sacked in the first meeting. I don't think Hasselbeck will be as dazzling as he was against the Saints, just productive enough to beat the Bears.

8) Combine dink and dunk with Beast Mode and Priest Mode. The Bears don't give up big plays so don't expect a return of the longballs that shocked the Saints. But they are susceptible to short passing gains, and the Seahawks will be more than happy to take those 4- and 5-yarders while methodically moving down the field. Mix a down-and-out to Williams and a slant to Stokley and an across-the-middle to John Carlson with some tough runs from Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett. It should be a recipe for success.

7) Third-down conversions. The Bears were 0-for-12 in the first game. That won't happen again, but the Seahawks should be confident, knowing they can stop these guys because they've done it before. This reminder in bold-faced capital letters -- THE BEARS HAVE THE NFL's 30th-RANKED OFFENSE. That means there are only two offenses that are worse than theirs -- Arizona's and Carolina's. In other words, there's nothing to fear.

6) Turf conditions. Apparently they're horrible at Soldier Field. Why they'd be horrible, I have no idea. Well, I do have an idea. I hear that they play high-school games there too, which makes for too much wear and tear over time or some damn thing like that. I don't understand how they can have the best football players in the world competing on an elementary school playground, but that's one of the storylines for the game. Instead of giving the Bears the advantage since they're familiar with it, I'm favoring the Seahawks in this department because, frankly, it's hard to find 14 reasons why they'll win this game, and I'm reaching.

That, and former Seahawk Ray Roberts told 710 ESPN Seattle that the sorry turf conditions will favor a short-strider like Lynch over Chicago's Matt Forte. And Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher said the field is bad for everyone, giving neither team an edge.

5) Terrell Owens. He picked the Seahawks to win. Why should that be of note? He picked the Seahawks to beat the Saints too.

4) The 10-point underdog card. Seattle will play that sucker one more time. Last week the Seahawks used it as motivation to show that their 7-9 team belonged in the playoffs. This week they will use it again. The country is filled with non-believers, and in Chicago, they don't register as a qualified opponent.

In the Chicago Sun-Times, Rick Telander wrote a column sizing up the Bears' next game against the Falcons or the Packers. In the Chicago Tribune, Mike Mulligan wrote that the Seahawks' chances against the Bears are "infinitesimal," which I think means really, really slim. Mulligan also called the Bears the "far superior team." Superior, yes. Far superior? Please.

Also in Chicago, Bears' fans are saving their money on tickets for this game so they can buy tickets to the next one against Green Bay, assuming the Packers beat the Falcons.

I don't know, if I'm a Seahawks player, I process all of this stuff and want to kick some serious butt on Sunday.

3) A big internal factor. Along with this "we'll show you" attitude, the Seahawks believe in each other. Sounds trite, but it appears to apply here. They've formed a powerful bond, one that wouldn't overcome their shortcomings against the Patriots, but it's strong enough to beat the Bears.

2) Pete Carroll. Again, just guessing, but in a game of this magnitude, if I'm a player, I'd be more fired up to play for Carroll than Lovie Smith. After all of his years at USC, Carroll proved to be a big-game coach. Again, I want to stick my finger down my throat every time I hear "win forever" and "always compete" and my personal un-favorite "Tell the Truth Monday," but Carroll's axioms clearly work with his players, and that's all that matters.

1) The No. 1 reason the Seahawks will beat the Bears? Leon Washington. I'm telling you, if I had a reputation left, I'd stake it on the feeling that Washington needs a big game for the Seahawks to win. I expect him to deliver.

Here's why -- Devin Hester is rightfully viewed as the NFL's best return man, maybe of all-time. But Washington might be No. 2, and when you're No. 2, you want to show No. 1 what you've got. Washington said there won't be a personal battle with Hester, but deep down, I'll bet he'd like to one-up Hester on a national stage. Says here that he will.