Abstract:

County-level net migration and employment growth rates associated with the
Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) are examined. The NWFP area encompasses federal
land in 53 Oregon, Washington and California counties; 20 counties adjacent to NWFP
counties are also included in the sample. The NWFP was enacted in December of
1993, however, this analysis examines the 24 year time period from 1980 through 2003.
Net migration (the change in population due to in-migration and out-migration) and
employment growth are represented by a simultaneous equation model (SEM) that is
corrected for spatial autocorrelation. While the NWFP land allocations are expected to
influence net migration and employment growth, they are potentially determined by
similar processes as the endogenous economic indicators. Logistic regression analysis
shows the probability that NWFP lands were allocated to biodiversity purposes or to
land uses subject to timber harvest depends on natural, political and economic
variables. The SEM is run on a yearly basis to explore changes in net migration and
employment growth due to policy enactment, future expectations about land
allocations, and market fluctuations. These results suggest the time period was
characterized by many changes the endogenous variables from the effects of land
management. In addition, the yearly analysis suggests that variation in yearly employment growth and net migration may not be sufficient for precise estimation of
the effects of the exogenous variables. Pooling the yearly data over policy-relevant
time periods is thus appropriate and provides insight into the NWFP effects on the
economic indicators. Counties with more land reserved for biodiversity purposes had
higher net migration and employment growth. In contrast, counties with more land
allocated to extractive uses experienced low net migration. During the period following
NWFP enactment, from 1994 to 2003, the classification of land according to NWFP
management yields no significant relationship, suggesting adjustment to the NWFP had
occurred. The effects of land management variables for rural and metropolitan counties
are distinguished in another SEM. Contrary to the popular notion that employment
effects were felt in large part by rural counties, this analysis shows changes in
employment growth due to policy effects were felt primarily in metropolitan counties
within the NWFP region. In addition, higher net migration occurred in rural and
metropolitan counties containing land reserved for biodiversity purposes. These
counties also experienced a simultaneous increase in employment growth as a result of
allocation of these lands. Analysis of employment growth changes in specific industry
sectors indicates manufacturing jobs were lost, however, service industry growth was
encouraged as a result of NWFP land allocations. In addition, land allocated solely for
the purpose of biodiversity services was not associated with changes in the
manufacturing employment while potentially promoting growth in service sector
employment.