Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Nowhere Man

Here are two serious links and one very serious piece of news. The first
serious link is an analysis of Iraq casualty numbers by Myelectionanalysis
(hat tip: Mudville
Gazette)

81, 76, 50, 49, 43, 25

What are these numbers? This week’s Powerball winners? ... No, they’re
the number of troops that have died in hostile actions in Iraq for each of the
past six months. That last number represents the lowest level of troop deaths
in a year, and second-lowest in two years.

But it must be that the insurgency is turning their assault on Iraqi
military and police, who are increasingly taking up the slack, right? 215,
176, 193, 189, 158, 193 (and the three months before that were 304, 282, 233)

My point here is not that everything is peachy in Iraq. It isn’t. My
point isn’t that the insurgency is in its last throes. It isn’t. My point
here isn’t even to argue that we’re winning. I’m at best
cautiously-pessimistic-to-neutral about how things are going there. ... My
only point is that ... I was unequivocally shocked when I saw this. Completely
the opposite of what I’d expected. My non-scientific sample of three
friends, all of whom are considerably more bullish about the prospects in Iraq
than I am, revealed three people similarly surprised by these numbers.

Myelectionanalysis expected to find the reverse of the actual numbers,
as you would be led to think if you confined your reading to the International
Crisis Group, who in their February 15, 2006 report, entitled "In Their
Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency" describe an insurgency that is
going from strength to strength.

This report, based on close analysis of the insurgents’ own discourse,
reveals relatively few groups ... whose strategy and tactics have evolved (in
response to U.S. actions and to maximise acceptance by Sunni Arabs), and whose
confidence in defeating the occupation is rising. ... The emergence of a more
confident, better organised, coordinated, information-savvy insurgency, ...
has survived, even thrived, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned,
suggests the limitations of the current counter-insurgency campaign.

But it's hard to reconcile the International Crisis Group's report with the
second link. An Armed Forces Journal article entitled "It
will be better when you leave" says it has become so comparatively
quiet in former Iraqi hotspots that the troops are wondering what to make of it.

There are more than 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, 23,000 of whom are
Marines. But even in the most insurgent-infested places in Iraq, the troops
aren’t doing much. The Fallujahs and Mosuls and Tall Afars are history. The
insurgents seem to be lying low. They’re not coming out in great numbers to
confront U.S. troops. They’re not mounting as many effective IED attacks.

Sometimes it seems the American forces are searching for things to do —
going on patrol for the sake of going on patrol. At some point that patrol is
going to hit an IED — it’s a numbers game. But it’s unlikely that a
patrol was specifically targeted. It’s just bad luck.

Could the insurgents be executing a similar strategy to the Taliban in
Afghanistan? As Sean D. Naylor reported in the February issue of AFJ, Special
Forces officers who work closely with tribal militias in Afghanistan’s most
remote provinces warn that the former regime that protected al-Qaida is lying
in wait, marshalling resources for the day America leaves.

Commentary

As Myelectionanalysis says, he's not interpreting history; just reporting the
numbers. That casualty numbers are down not just for Americans but for Iraqis
and civilians too appears to be anecdotally confirmed by the Armed Forces
Journal article. But the question is what does it mean? One possibility is that
the "increasingly confident" insurgency reported by the International
Crisis Group is giving America one last respite before unleashing hell and
finally driving the US from Iraq. The other possibility is that the enemy,
unable to defeat the US military in the field, has embarked on a strategy Amir
Taheri called "Waiting Out Bush". Or in Belmont Clubese, the enemy
having lost the military war now hopes to win the political war. Taheri says
that many Arab capitals are simply waiting for a new administration to ride to
their rescue. The trick is simply to "wait out Bush".

Hassan Abbasi has a dream--a helicopter doing an arabesque in cloudy skies
to avoid being shot at from the ground. On board are the last of the
"fleeing Americans," forced out of the Dar al-Islam (The Abode of
Islam) by "the Army of Muhammad." Presented by his friends as
"The Dr. Kissinger of Islam," Mr. Abbasi is "professor of
strategy" at the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard Corps University
and, according to Tehran sources, the principal foreign policy voice in
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's new radical administration.

To hear Mr. Abbasi tell it the entire recent history of the U.S. could be
narrated with the help of the image of "the last helicopter." ... According to this theory, President George W. Bush is an
"aberration," a leader out of sync with his nation's character and
no more than a brief nightmare for those who oppose the creation of an
"American Middle East." Messrs. Abbasi and Ahmadinejad have
concluded that there will be no helicopter as long as George W. Bush is in the
White House. But they believe that whoever succeeds him, Democrat or
Republican, will revive the helicopter image to extricate the U.S. from a
complex situation that few Americans appear to understand.

It is not only in Tehran and Damascus that the game of "waiting Bush
out" is played with determination. In recent visits to several regional
capitals, this writer was struck by the popularity of this new game from
Islamabad to Rabat. The general assumption is that Mr. Bush's plan to help
democratize the heartland of Islam is fading under an avalanche of partisan
attacks inside the U.S. The effect of this assumption can be witnessed
everywhere.

Which brings me to the "very serious piece of news" I promised
readers. It's completely off topic, so funny and yet so serious that it simply
must be included in this post. Carlos the Jackal has been fined by a French
court for hate speech. According to the Guardian:

April 4 -- PARIS (AP) - A Paris court fined the terrorist known as
"Carlos the Jackal'' more than $6,000 Tuesday for saying in a French
television interview that terror attacks sometimes were "necessary."
The 56-year-old Venezuelan, whose real name is Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, was
convicted of defending terrorism. The court did not convict him for expressing
pleasure that "the Great Satan" - the United States - suffered the
Sept. 11 attacks, saying those comments were his personal reaction.
Prosecutors asked for a fine four times larger than the $6,110 penalty
imposed. But the judges said they did not see the need for a higher fine
because Ramirez's comments referred to the past and aimed to justify his own
actions. Ramirez, dressed in a red shirt and blue blazer, kissed the hand of
his partner and lawyer, Isabelle Coutant-Peyre, during the judgment.

The Carlos story isn't a parody and readers who think it's a hoax can click
the link to the Guardian to verify that it's real. But it epitomizes the
absurdities in Western political culture which makes the strategy of
winning-while-losing possible. Because the "last helicopter" is always
ready for boarding whether it needs to leave or not; and there are a long line
of political leaders willing to take the trip on principle. Just because.
John Lennon and Paul McCartney were very probably right when they characterized
that certain kind of person.

He's a real Nowhere Man
Sitting in his nowhere land
Making all his nowhere plans for nobody

Doesn't have a point of view
Knows not where he's going to
Isn't he a bit like you and me?

187 Comments:

Interesting post, Wretchard. I knew that US casualties were incredibly low, but the idea that civilian deaths are 1/5th of what they were 8 months ago is stunning.

IMO, waiting for the US to leave is the only viable option the bad guys have left. It also conclusively puts the lie to the idea that a conventional force cannot defeat a guerilla insurgency. 'Course, the press won't let that little secret out. When the time comes, the US needs to leave Iraq like Israel left Gaza: killing all the bad guys they could find on the way out.

In regards to The Jackal: Here's a perfect example of why the French shouldn't be lecturing anyone on violations of International Law. They didn't give a damn about it when they extradited Carlos from Sudan. Funny how so many people are only in favor of International Law when it makes the US look bad.

As an aside, fining a Marxist, anti-Semitic assassin for hate speech is kind of like taxing him for breathing, ain't it? What the hell did they expect him to say?

machinist: Yes, but the French are so cultured, they let their lifers give TV interviews...then fine them for being themselves.

Over the week end I went to the funeral of the husband of my cousin. They had a baby boy between them. The boy is cute as a button. His father was entering his early 40's. He was a drinker and offed himself. Nobody cared to say anything about it at the funeral but the audience was full of people--including me -- who drank in their 20's and 30's --and managed just in time--by the grace of God--to kick the wicked beast. Lots of guys looked at the casket and thought to themselves...there but by the Grace of God go I.

My aunt broke the awkward silence at the burial site by singing ... It Is Well With My Soul.

The "In Their Own Words" excerpt said: "...and whose confidence in defeating the occupation is rising... The emergence of a more confident, better organised, coordinated, information-savvy insurgency, ... has survived, even thrived, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, suggests the limitations of the current counter-insurgency campaign."

This piece of writing is precious. Its value lies in the reminder it presents that peppering one's discourse with well-placed figures of speech and rhetorical devices doesn't make what you say true, only more appealing and persuasive.

The last helicopter, symbol of American impuissance in Vietnam. If it happens this time I will be amazed. George W still is Commander in Chief and I do not think his lame duck status means a flip to him. He'll, as LIncoln told Grant, "fret'em and fret'em and fret'em"We'll end up taking Syria to find the WMD's the Soviets moved there. We'll coordinate a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and hopefully for simply a tangible show of understandable power we'll MOAB and Dresdenize some cities. That power the average illiterate Muslim will understand, and RESPECT, (thanks Aretha).As for them killing each other, well we did it in abundance during the War of Northern Aggression. Semper Fi

At first glance, the picture and the Beatles lyrics stand out. My first thought was "Well, okay, the Jackal is a Nowhere Man". Then, reading, it hit what Wretchard is saying: the Jackal is the product of the Nowhere Men. Ah, much better arc, much finer truth.

Old Leon Klinghoffer, elderly, wheelchair-bound, Jewish, American, on his lifetime Big Holiday in his sunset years, was rolled off a hijacked cruiseship, by Abu Nidal, in just one incident of the Abu Nidal career, to splash into the water and sink down, down into the green depths with his lungs bursting as he no doubt prayed in frantic despair for his loved ones left aboard at the mercy of Abu Nidal.

Mr. Hunter,First off a heartfelt and congratulatory note on your favorite book. "The Road to Serfdom." It is a must read. You made observation of four rhtorical devices when critiquing the piece. When I was in school we counted more than 60 rhetorical devices. I'm not convinced the author overplayed his hand.Semper Fi

"This piece of writing is precious. Its value lies in the reminder it presents that peppering one's discourse with well-placed figures of speech and rhetorical devices doesn't make what you say true, only more appealing and persuasive."

Here's another little gem of rhetorical propaganda that would have received Dr. Goebbels' approval. The MSM is doing its level best for the bad guys.

"That casualty numbers are down not just for Americans but for Iraqis and civilians too appears to be anecdotally confirmed by the Armed Forces Journal article. But the question is what does it mean?"

There's another question that goes with this: Who are all those guys with their hands bound and a bullet hole in the back of their heads? Could it be that Muqtada's goons are taking out the garbage (Baathists and foreign Jihadiis)? There's a slight chance that Muqtada has not yet past his expiration date.

of course you may be right. Perhaps he didn't overplay his hand. What else I might have mentioned is that in my study of the use of figures of speech, I have found that four genres seem to use them in particular abundance: poetry, advertising, religious texts, and political speeches.

By my estimate, advertising contains the most per 100 words but then again I haven't systematically examined every genre. Perhaps since advertisers have such strict time and space limitations, they need to get the most out of (or into) every word. Politcal speeches seem to run a close second.

I suppose my point is just that when I see this many figures in such a short space it starts to feel like a hard sell. Very few writers and orators can do this without wearing the listener down.

The new translation of Marcus Aurelius's "Meditations" and the speeches of Winston Churchill are notable examples of the skillful use of these devices. The speeches of Jesse Jackson and Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are notable for their overuse of certain figures.

As for the numbers, yes four or five figures in a few sentences is a small number compared to the number out there. Books I have on the subject range from as few as 40 figures to as many as 300. Still it seemed like overkill to me but I readily admit such assessments are highly subjective.

Another example of " winning-while-losing:"Conquest by DemographicsThe irony of demanding American citizenship while holding aloft the flag of a foreign country was not lost on American viewers.The burning and desecration of American flags involved in some cases and all the racist "gringo" rhetoric didn't help.Indeed, there's more than one way to conquer territory, and a demographic takeover is often more effective than a military one.

Mexican nationalist sentiment in favor of "reconquista" or reclaiming the southwestern United States, otherwise known as Aztlan, is no longer confined to the fringes.It has now become a popular sentiment, intoned by Hispanic politicians, professors, activists and students.The fact that it was a common theme in the recent protests points to the effectiveness of years of unchecked political indoctrination in schools and universities by groups such as the National Council of La Raza and MEChA (Movimiento Estudiantil de Chicanos de Aztlan).Such are the fruits of eschewing assimilation for multiculturalism.

Who Benefits?If the unholy alliance of business interests, labor unions, liberal elements of the Catholic Church and other clergy, Hispanic organizations, civil rights groups and leftist organizations has its way, America as we know it will be a thing of the past.Such strange bedfellows each have their own interests at heart. Big business wants to retain an unending supply of cheap labor; labor unions and church activists desire increased membership; Hispanic and civil rights organizations want U.S. taxpayers to continue funding illegal immigration and leftist groups seek to undermine American power by any means necessary. Joining the open-borders lobby are Democratic and Republican politicians, playing their part in search of the ever-elusive Hispanic vote, legal or otherwise.

At the forefront of the movement to erase national boundaries is President Bush himself. Having long discarded any fealty to the voters who supported him in 2004, Bush has become part of the problem. ---Bush's utter contempt for American citizenship was made apparent during a recent speech at a naturalization ceremony in Washington. Standing in front of a banner reading "Securing the American Dream," he had the gall to discuss benefits for illegal immigrants. To expect a group of people who made the effort to become legal citizens to be sympathetic to rewarding lawbreakers is beyond comprehension. When the law becomes meaningless, so does citizenship.This may explain why legal Hispanic immigrants, as well as U.S.-born Hispanics, tend to part ways[PDF] with their brethren in the open-borders crowd. The Hispanic population in the United States is by no means monolithic, despite the image disseminated by the recent immigration protests.

President Newspeak at Work:Trading Sovereignty for GlobalismA popular talking point put forward ad nauseam by Bush in recent weeks is that illegal immigrants do "the jobs Americans won't do." This Orwellian phrase has been repeated over and over again by the open-borders lobby, and now has become accepted as truth.In fact, illegal immigrants do not make up the majority of workers in any occupation, and they comprise less than 5 percent of the U.S. workforce.

Today, we find ourselves facing a future unlike any previous generation's.It's a future in which America as a sovereign nation could cease to exist.

I agree with Mr. Hunter's assessment about the hard sell. While I believe I understand Habu's point about it not being an excessive amount, I think that when you step back and look at what this document is trying to appear to be and then look closer at its sentence by sentence structure, things become considerably more suspect.

I'm glad Mr. Hunter pointed this out; the excerpt caught my attention as being a bit forced, I realized I was detecting something but I wasn't able to initially put my finger on it. My initial feeling was more of an awareness of the emptiness and lack of precision, a lack of any metrics, and no real arguments... just words strung together to achieve a certain feeling.

I decided to more closely examine the document from where the excerpt was found. It's very, very curious. It purports to be an "analysis" and a "report" and yet is stylistically unlike a sober report or analysis.

Check out the first sentence of the executive summary:

"In Iraq, the U.S. fights an enemy it hardly knows. Its descriptions have relied on gross approximations and crude categories (Saddamists, Islamo-fascists and the like) that bear only passing resemblance."

I'll spare the reader from my re-identifying the devices spotted by Mr. Hunter. But beyond those, what first struck me about this is that they are talking about the US's "descriptions", which are at best press conference blurbs and seeks to assume that the same language is used by analysts, military intelligence specialists, etc. It would be little different than saying that the Apple computer company knows little more about its computers than what can be found in Apple's press releases.

In the last sentence of the first paragraph we find this: "An anti-insurgency approach primarily focused on reducing the insurgents’ perceived legitimacy – rather than achieving their military destruction, decapitation and dislocation – is far more likely to succeed." That's very eye-catching, the allliteration of words beginning in D, in the form of three words, is rather excessive. Particularly when "destruction" alone would have more than sufficed. The use of 2 additional words that essentially mean the same things adds nothing to the clarity of the communication.

Readers may wish to take a look at the document keeping Mr. Hunter's observations in mind. There is a lot to find in it.

thanks for that additional analysis. I concur with what you noticed about the lack of a sober analytical approach. Just as there is a time and place for the tricolon and alliteration that you observed, there is also for backing up assertions with facts placed in context.

It is sad to see how rare are blogs like this one and Bill Roggio's Fourth Rail, i.e. blogs where logic, the empirical method, and fact-driven analysis are the order of the day.

"In my opinion, when someone tries this hard to make their writing clever, they are masking something- the facts, their ignorance of them, their arrogance or perhaps all three.

Concur your analysis.

Because THIS analytical reality is available to ALL HUMANS, on a more-or-less-conscious basis, we can search more-or-less accurately for the Truth, the reality behind the words, and the motives of the speaker/writer.

I thought Carlos always had an inflated view of himself, my goodness," the jackal" But it really is a surprise that "Carlos the Cockroach" is still crawling around France. I guess he may have an immigration problem accepting a scholarship to Yale, but maybe not. Murphy really eas right, "Friends come and go, enemies accumulate".

The data series for car bomb attacks is very interesting. The lack of variation within the two respective time bands (months 1-4 and months 5-6) implies very few production sources for. It almost seems like there were two car bomb factories and one was destroyed around two months ago.

William F. Buckley, has another cynical take; this time on the issue of lower US casualties:He posits:The insurgents can reasonably assume that there is nothing they can do to drive the Americans away. Three years have gone by, more than 2,300 Americans have been killed, the rate of these killings reduces but is not concomitant with any reduction in U.S. strength. It is brought on by (a) the reduction in U.S. exposure, and (b) insurgent concentration on non-U.S. targets.

But ask then: Is this reduced exposure a part of the U.S. battle plan? We have not in recent months seen any hard U.S. assaults on hard Iraqi targets, in the class of Fallujah in the fall of 2004. Can we assume that such hard enemy nests aren't there, holding out? Or rather that the U.S. army command is less bent on smoking them out?

He ends his column with:

But one would expect the military to pay greater attention than if hellbent on the mission's accomplishment to such factors as risk to U.S. personnel. The welcome lightening of the casualty figures can be seen as the military voting with their feet to begin withdrawal from an enterprise that has proved costly beyond the successes achieved.

Does Buckley have some inside knowledge or does he suffer as does Congressman Murtha?

"Until last week there was a robust selection of wines from Georgia and Moldova, long the most popular in the former Soviet world. Now, on shelves once crowded with dry Tsinandalis and sweet muscats, stand hastily relocated wines from Italy, Bulgaria, Ukraine and France.

Throughout Russia it is the same. Wines from Georgia and Moldova have been banned."

This is being reported in NYT. It may seem a little humorous, but it is not. It is another example of the G-25 power under the little KGB punk reasserting control of former satelites. It is blatant economic aggression and if GWB wanted to get his numbers up he should take a pass on going to St. Petersburg and pretending that the Putin runt is anything more than the thug he is.

Before OIF began, an American TV reporter in IRaq made a very interesing observation.He said that prior to their invasion of Kuwaitt, Iraqis saw the U.S. as a paper tiger, a powerful nation that lacked the stamina and will needed to win in combat, but that "They don't look at the U.S. that way now."

The Leftist "triumph" of the Vietnam era has led to so much conflict and so many innocent deaths - so many people have paid for this - I just wonder when the Left will truly pay.

That is an excellent point RWE. We did not lose Viet Nam as much as we abondoned it. However, politics is maximizing the achievable. We are stuck with MSM, the elite academia and the left. They will always be there to temper and modify if not deny our more assertive tendancies. I believe we are at the point of rapidly diminishing returns in Iraq. If we leave or wind down on our terms and rapidly assert ourselves over some of our other interests, we will not have another post Viet Nam angst.

it has become so comparatively quiet in former Iraqi hotspots that the troops are wondering what to make of it.

Concentration. They moved and reconcentrated themselves in Baghdad. Then their planned takeover of the Green Zone was aborted. So they are concentrating on disorder now, greatly aided by the Interior Ministry's decision not to deploy coalition-trained police, but instead employ the armed groups of political factions for "enforcement".

"The American death rate for March was 31 fatalities, a gruesome toll (one per day), yet the second lowest since the invasion was launched three years ago. Over approximately the same period, nearly 1,500 Iraqi civilians were killed, according to the American military, a significant increase over recent months."

pd - if the myelection numbers are counting backwords, notice the parenthetical adjustment concerning upper bounds: 1129 is not so different from 1,500. at least that's how i think we're supposed to read it.

The insurgency has made a brilliant move in taking the vast majority of the violence to Baghdad, where the media are. As a result, even though there is less killing going on more of it is being reported. As a result, the American public is being effectively demoralized by the MSM.

Too bad John Kerry can't be fined for trotting out his "last man to die for a lie" schtick in the NYT yesterday. In the face of possible success, it's not important that we hurry up and surrender before it's too late!

Kerry must have read "The Last Helicopter" and decided: We can't leave them waiting too long, what if Iraq is a success? That would be terrible for the Democrats.

Hmmm. The way I read Myelectionanalysis numbers was Aug:2459, Sep: 1129, Oct:527, Nov:826, Dec:532, Jan:732, Feb:950, Mar:446. That seems to correlate with the similarly down trending numbers in the other categories. If that's right, there's a 3x delta between his Brookings numbers and Buckley's "American military" numbers.

Subtracting that 1,000+ dead discrepency would undermine much of WFB's argument, even if it wouldn't address the possibility that the terrorists have just gone into "wait out Bush" mode.

"... Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced yesterday that the United States is considering increasing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. She also urged Hamas to choose a peaceful path in government.

Speaking to reporters en route to Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, Rice said Hamas must make its intentions clear.

"The road map is the way for a better life for the Palestinian people. Whatever government they form needs to make clear to the international community pretty soon that that will be the policy of the government," she said.

The State Department is reviewing all aid to the Palestinians to ensure no U.S. funds reach Hamas. While prevented under U.S. law from giving aid directly to a Hamas-led government, Rice said she hoped the United States could provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.

"We are looking at ways to even increase our humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people during this period of time, but there are important choices that the Palestinian people face concerning the road map and the Quartet requirements," she said.

Rice did not indicate whether she would ask Congress for more humanitarian aid. It is more likely that any new help will come from funds previously earmarked for the Palestinian Authority. ... "

Money is fungible, more US Aid to Palistine, more US Aid to terrorists across the Region. Every dime the US antes up, is another dime the Sauds and the Iranians do not have to.

Ms Rice is wrong to reallocate Aid monies, she is wrong to fund the Palistinians.Mr Bush is wrong to allow it to go forward.Any aid to Palistine is Aid to the Terrorists. The US a global sponsor of terror.

Eggplant's link, to NewsWeek's story on the Secretary of State's visit to Baghdad, offers this sentence near the top:

The Green Zone, a vast secure, American area plunked down in the heart of the Baghdad (imagine foreign occupiers taking over the Mall in Washington, D. C.), was supposed to have been temporary.

Fine, rank persuasion, the irksome factor is that NewsWeek will ever deny that it is anything but objective. The article on this state visit opens with a long meditation on the Rhino. The reader is supposed to wonder why Condi Rice rode in such a vehicle. Of course the answer is that it's a war zone, but you are invited to see that as all wrong, that (newsflash!) a Secretary of State needs such security. Bah. A pox on NewsWeek.

Aren't their treaty precedents in Japan and Germany for permanent Base openings, force protection, etc. that would put a damper on this strategy? To wait us out, or to wait anyone out seems to be a "Cowards Victory".

The strategy that will turn that around is a heavy insurgent arrest regimen, public trials and staying in Iraq - in force. Calling this the way to a Cowards Victory will enrage the idiots in the insurgency and possibly damage this oh-so-fragile psyche of the average every day jihadist. Maybe a time to up the ante in their stupid, flacid tactics. The "wait till they leave" strategy - what Ultra-Maroons (To quote a personal hero of mine).

Blood fueds and bandits, kidnappers and thugs in general, guns for hire, baathists, outside jihadis, hustlers and con-men. It's a regular Dodge City and I think several thousand trained NC0-type, field grade type terr commanders have been killed and are not being replaced. Only the MSM and some computer warrriors believe mohammed can close his bakery in Syria, hop a bus to Iraq and instantly take command of a squad of terrs and conduct sophisictated ambushes and operations and laison with other groups, keep the cash and money flowing, procure supplies, weapons and ammo, recruit and train,avoid detection and being reported and arrested. Attrition significantly factors in and that accounts for the shift in attacks against civilians.

No one in the US Government or the Iraqi has proposed an extended US presence in Iraq.Should there be one? Of course.But it is undiscussed.There are no End Game discussions in Iraq. Perhaps we were waiting for an Iraqi Government to form.

Let US begin to negotiate with Mr Mahdi or whomever. The SCIRI (the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) will rule Iraq, how likely are they to accomadate US wishes?

The UN Resolution allowing the Occupation expires in Jan '07. What if Mr Mahdi tells US it is time for US to go, then?

Al Qaeda has said their main strategic focus is not killing Americans but pinning them down in extended war, burning money up like there is no tomorrow, and financially bleeding America to death as they did the Soviets. Binnie has said, the fact that we can spend 500K on an operation that caused 2 trillion in loss, that America bleeds 100s of billions to defend in areas we do not plan to attck in their uncertainty makes the outcome certain...."we will reduce America's wealth and ability to function internationally as surely as we did with the godless ones".

So far Bush appears to be obliging them. 3 trillion in debt under Bush. 2 trillion in total debt to his Chinese, Japanese, overseas Jewish financier, Saudi, and French patrons. 820 billion annual trade deficits as American production of goods and R&D budgets are gutted in favor of Asian production and R&D. And Katrina showed the continued inability of the government to respond to disasters, as well as the unraveling of the American social fabric that held in even 3rd World nations during the Mumbai flooding and the 2004 Tsunami.

Major issues left unaddressed in America for the last 4 years as the Iraq fixation continues. With total cost, inc. lifetime healthcare and disability, projected to cost the US between 800 billion and 1.3 billion in entirely borrowed money that will have to be paid back staring in 2008.

Yep, that points to the most insipid arguments of the anti-war crowd, a timeline. The idea that we work on a UN imposed timeline is suicidal. Open-end this or fall to the "wait till they leave" tactic. Ridiculous way to fight this war or any war (Vietnam). Remember folks, the claims to victory in their society are laughable to us, but to them, it's the smell of Napalm in the morning.

Doug - Bush's utter contempt for American citizenship was made apparent during a recent speech at a naturalization ceremony in Washington.

It wouldn't be the 1st time Bush has stood up and revealed himself as a willing whore and complete tool of his corporate masters that want Open Borders.

To me, Doug, the best moment was when the Minuteman formed stating they would watch the Border since Bush was blocking ICE staffing and still supporting catch and release, not making illegals a national security issue, and not enforcing employer fines - 3 years after 9/11. Bush was meeting with Presidente Vincente Fox and at a conference, he listened as Fox denounced the border watchers as American racist bigots trying to block "hard-working" Mexicans from putting food on their table. Completely unbidden, but knowing it would please his fatcat benefactors, Bush backed his Amigo Presidente's denunciations of "hateful Americans" and piped up that he too detested racism and called the border watchers "Vigilantes" completely unacceptable to him.

What a tool. I lost all respect for the whore at that point.

How many bad guys have infiltrated? Well, aside from the cells the Chinese, Hezbollah, Iran have likely sent across our unguarded borders - we have 30% of the felonies in CA committed by illegal aliens..and I wouldn't be surprised if Al Qaeda cells laying low until Iraq is done - that crossed our borders will strike - but might want to wait as long as America is divided and going in the wrong direction on a range of critical matters.

"When Bush is digging a hole, it is a wise Jihadi or Chinese agent that hands the fool a shovel".

Sorry folks, I have W.C. Fields and Mae West (MY Little Chickadee) talking in the background. Makes concentrating hard.

C4,

Yep, problems, but your idea of reasons to leave the ME have been used before - and discarded. I think it was Buddy - yesterday. Did you read it or flick it from your waistcoat? As the great JUST said - "Go back to the Reservation and milk your elk". (Or, answer my question from yesterday - Do elections count?)

Could it be that despite the nominal debt numbers (which are anyway at/near historic averages relative to the size of this near 15 trillion economy), our currency is holding in a narrow range vs the other mature states? USD should be in collapse, according to your dire forecast.

I know gold is way up, but dig into the figures, you'll see it's hedge demand in Asia running a low-volume mkt past its supply/demand balance. IOW, at this time, gold is flashing less of an inflation signal and more of a demand signal.

Aha, you ask, why the demand, if people aren't sweating their currencies?

Oho, say I, look at global long-rates, and see, that gold is driven not by fear but by a new level of demand created by the global economic boom.

Foreign debt? The USA is making a really nice return on it, C4--that's why all the good metrics. Productivity is magical.

Banks, individuals, nations, all want to invest in safe projects that bear good returns.

The best brains in the world are in this game, and they like the USA.

Are you really that bad an economist, or are you just carrying political water?

I am very puzzled by your acceptance of the electionanalysis.com' analysis of the data. Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick here but these numbers really make no sense at all.

Electionanalysis links to this document as a source for its data

http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf

Let's take a look starting at the very first claim.

“81, 76, 50, 49, 43, 25What are these numbers? This week’s Powerball winners? ... No, they’re the number of troops that have died in hostile actions in Iraq for each of the past six months. “

Six months of hostile induced deaths. That adds up to 324 deaths in the last 36 months. Hmmmm, there must be a load of accidental US soldier deaths? Lets check the source for this data. According to Brookings there have been 1824 deaths in this period due to hostile incidents. Maybe these ‘analysts’ mis-stated their numbers and they really talking averages? Taking a look at the graph there is nothing to imply such a declining trend and things look so bad with this analysis I don’t think it is worth crunching the numbers to make the proof. Take a look for yourselves.

Wretchard, what gives? Why wouldn’t you even take a cursory look at the numbers before tossing them up on your blog? Am I missing something here?

Carlos, Abu, Sirhan – what ties have they? All three supported the Palestinian cause, i.e. the destruction of Israel. Two are of Palestinian stock. Two are known to have operated directly within the PFLP (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine), while the third is thought by some to have had such ties. All three are murderous psychopaths. All three are honored as heroes by the HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement), the governing party of the Palestinian Authority.

How easy it is to mock the delicate sense of French justice, schadenfreude is so invigorating, especially at the expense of the French - nothing like the smell of French toast in the morning. The US most take care to avoid looking even more foolish, as the State Department’s mental gymnastics in justification of financial aid to the Palestinian Authority warns. Pampering one Carlos is ridiculously bad form, pampering a putative government of his fellow travelers would be …

And as far as timelines, specific dates, puh-leeze--the reason we're all in a fog as to those dates is because that's the best way to beat the bad guys, don't let 'em do your planning for ya.

I love your "whore' and "tool of the economic interests" language, C4. Reminds me of the course I took on Lenin. Find me someone over the age of six who you couldn't call a "whore for the economic interests". It's a spirit *and* a material world, C4--matters of the spirit are vital, and they swim in an economic sea. There's no glory in "need", just "need".

With all due respect (not said smugly!), victory in Iraq looks like it does now. I don't think that parades upon our troops return is what we are going to see in this war. We have no cohesive enemy force to sign treaties with, then restage our troops. I'm not trying to talk down your response, just trying to understand the question. Maybe many disagree with my premise here - this war is not over. The Battle in Iraq is phasing to either Civil War or Democracy. We are looking elsewhere now - Iran possibly. We must keep our troops in a pincer position in Iraq and Asghanistan to keep Iranian forces pulled 2 ways.

That word "fungible" should sometimes bear an asterisk. Oil is "fungible" by definition, but the realities of time and space add an asterisk: A tanker's turnaround time to our gulf coast from the Persian Gulf is ten times longer than it is from Venezuela.

I agree, rat, on Hamas, but there may be an asterisk on that payment fungibility, too. I don't know. It's just a question for the forum. Where's a good link on the details?

Sure Buddy, anyone who calls your Dear Maximum Exhalted War Leader Bush a tool of the Open Borders fatcats MUST be a Marxist!

It's amazing how many traditional conservatives, Red State Republicans and Reagan Democrats now fall into "Marxists" by your definition.

Or is it that your Dear Maximum Exhalted War Leader Bush must not be criticized on anything? (Because if he is...the terrorists win! The terrorists win!)

And all your supply side, free trade "happy talk" is drivel. The Fed has said that the 820 billion dollar trade deficits, paying for rapid Gov't growth to artifically raise GNP numbers, and financing vast tax cuts for the wealthy and wars, big gov't spending through foreign debt - are unsustainable.

Outside the neocons, from the most liberal to the most conservative statesmen...the sentiment is that Amrica is headed in a bad direction and a big day of reckoning awaits. The price of gold is just a sign. It's run up is worse than in the Jimmy Carter economic disaster years.

Coincidentally, I navigated to this post after a quick rescan of Thomas Sowell's Are Facts Obsolete? I think that the fact that the quantitative analysis of casualties is hostile to the media's narrative is exactly what Sowell is talking about.

The 'Last Helicopter' theme is another indication that our enemies have a great flair for drama, just like the 'insurgents' who went to all of that trouble to turn a firetruck into a bomb. Unfortunately for them, facts do matter at a certain level: the physical universe itself is mostly composed of facts. The Iranian missile systems, torpedos and stealth boat-planes revealed last week seem to be mostly composed of 'counterfactuals'.

"Humanitarian" aid now NEEDS to be paid, in the same amounts that were paid to the PA, previously.

This is a breaking story.If the PA is no longer to be responsible for Palistine...

danmyers.The US does not, by Law, have a fight with Iran. There is no War Resolution nor Authorization for Force against Iran. If there needs to be, the President should introduce it.

Until there is, the US War aims are, as described by Mr Bush, localized to Iraq.

We propose to fund Palistinian terror.We let Iraqi terrorists hold conventions, as Iraq the Model reports" ... These days in Beirut, the fourth conference for supporting the "Iraqi resistance" is being held. ... "Why was this "Conference/ Convention" not targeted by US?

What kind of War is the WoT?We not only fund the Enemy we allow them to hold Conferences where they "Stratergize" against US, in total Sanctuary.

But, what do you know that central banks worldwide--the buyers of our long paper at under 5%--don't?

Both here and elesewhere, they do, after all, employ vast staffs of their best and brightest people.

You know, people who don't make decisions based on rhetoric and propaganda.

Maybe you're not a Marxist--I was merely observing your own language. And maybe I'm not a sheep following Dear Leader, but someone who knows we need an exec, and an exec needs honest critics. Else rudderless mere anarchy results.

And when a good economy is truthfully described, yes, it *does* come out "happy talk". Sorry!

Nice post at 8:16! You make economics sound so simple and straightforward. Capitalism works, whoda thunk it? Good work.

But, when the despairing among us only have one last economic bugbear to hang on to, the deficit, you have to expect them to hang on desperately.

Just as it's ever more critical to give up the closer we get to some kind of success in Iraq. But like Trish, even the hawks are getting tired of the Iraqis dragging this out with no govt. Guess that's why Condi and Straw were over there twisting arms this week.

I am much more sanguine than many here about our culture. The adults may be crazy, but the kids are alright.

We are starting to get our first glimpse of the type of human the Age of Internet cultivates. Many attributes seem negative, may even be negative once aggregated, but there is also strength in these emergent traits.

In 1998, for the first time since TV was introduced, the number of hours young people spent watching it decreased. This is more significant than most realize. In 1986 Neil Postman wrote his seminal work Amusing Ourselves to Death, in which he analyzed the way TV trivializes problems and atrophies critical thinking skills--skills that are honed by reading and doing, suppressed by passive viewing and consuming. The internet is not a fix-all for this, but it is a massive step in the right direction. More young people now, for good or ill, interact, read, and communicate constantly. Of course, snap-judgments and poorly-formed opinions go along with this, but these negatives are, in my opinion, outweighed by the positives.

Another effect of the Age of Internet is, at first glance, loathsome. Reality for the net generations is indistinguishable from simulation. Both are structured, malleable, and forgiving.

Unpleasant real-world events, like the Iraq war, are not taken seriously, or they are ignored altogether. This leads not to isolationism, but to indifference. Out of sight, out of mind. Troubling events, so long as they have no tangible effect on the individual, are simply purged, exiled from conversation and even thought. Reminders are treated with bristling indignation, which translates into contempt for those deemed responsible (Jon Stewart is only the first at exploiting this characteristic). Patience with intrusive disruptions is almost 'nil.

As I said, loathsome, right? By itself, sure: it might even be dangerous. But that is not the only effect of the Age of Internet.

Perhaps the best outcome is that our processing speed has greatly increased. Time and space have been contracted as decisions and effects occur in real time. Reaction times are swifter. Our younger generation is by far the most adaptive yet, feeling no compunction about discarding ineffective strategies for new ones. Allegiance is no longer to theory, but to what works; there is no patience for failure, and a healthy cynicism of all ideologies. Trial and error rules the day. Abstract deliberation is dead.

Many more attributes of the Digital Era will become apparent as time goes on, but the above effects are real, and consequential. Another species of the social animal homo sapien is in the making, one that is mentally facile, culturally sophisticated, and absolutely selfish.

It may not be the America you want, but if I were an enemy of ours, I would be very, very scared.

"...There are 60,000 immigrants in the U.S. military. They represent two percent of the total service personnel on active duty. About half are noncitizens, with 15,880 in the navy; of those, 5,046 are from the Philippines. More than 6,000 Marines are noncitizens, with the largest group, 1,452, from Mexico. ... "

Max Boot is the source.

That does not begin to address the ever growing ethnic Latin contingent in the Military, now.

English is not always la lingua primera, pero el secundo.

Do not be surprised, as Mr Boot relates:

"... This is an anomaly by historical standards: In the 19th century, when the foreign-born population of the United States was much higher, so was the percentage of foreigners serving in the military. During the Civil War, at least 20 percent of Union soldiers were immigrants, and many of them had just stepped off the boat before donning blue uniforms. There were even entire units, like the 15th Wisconsin Volunteer Infantry (the Scandinavian Regiment) and Gen. Louis Blenker's German Division, where English was hardly spoken. ... "

You end your piece with a rhetorical cynical question."Am I missing something here?"

Ash, there isn't enough ink in the barrel to illuminate what you are missing, not only on this subject but the entire meaning of Herbert Spencer,John Locke,Thomas Paine, and especially F. A. Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom"Go back two squares and do not pass GO, until you're up to speed.Semper Fi

Almost makes you feel sorry for poor ole Admiral Yamamoto. Happily, we live in a more chivalrous era.

There is a tale told of Waterloo, where it is said that Napoleon, astride his white charger, rode before the French army before the battle. One of Wellington's aides asked permission to unleash artillery. It is said that Wellington said, in effect, "You most certainly may not!" I have often wondered if the 40,000 casualties would have agreed with the Duke's gallantry.

Dan, that news knocked the legs out of today's trading--but it may not be so bad at second look--the office of the prez is an automatic de-classifying machine--whatever the prez says becomes de-classified automatically, it's the law. so, a legal tactic. Libby hasn't split the sheet with the WH, I don't think.

Tony, thanks! I'm always a-feared of being a bore on all that. C4's baloney just rankles beyond my power to ignore.

The President and the Palme "leak" has been so debunked as to be moribund at this point. The hearings are for TV face time for the inquisitors.Buddy is correct that POTUS can declassify at will. Hell Bill Clinton sold TOP SECRET CODEWORD intel to the Chinese for campaign dollars. But Plame was outside the window of deep cover by the time she was outed and became a covergirl with her husband.It's just election year face time.

Humanity's feelings about the quality of life are wrapped up in material progress (which in turn is a product of spiritual health but that's another story), and material progress is built upon confidence in the future.

That's why dishonest propaganda about the state-of-affairs on any topic that affects the future is so deadly--in either direction, false confidence or false despair.

As Aristides post observes, data will be more important than rhetoric as today's kids make the future. Very hopeful, this parallel educational system.

When KGB released it's papers back under Peristroika, turned out that McCarthyism wasn't "McCarthyism" after all. There WAS a Commie under lots of beds.

MSM is now into a propaganda derivative, wherein it doesn't expect to be believed (look at NYTimes) anymore, it just wants to deliver the nasty message that it intends to keep delivering nasty messages.

It's the "rule or ruin" method, the intend is to demoralize with mass-effect that crackerjack can-do American spirit that obstructs the march of transnational progress.

read somewhere where it's a tenet of Gramsci/Chomskey/Leninsky for 'the authority' to encourage the liveliest possible debate, and lots of it, endlessly, among "the people", but to limit it within approved boundaries. Thus we have dead silence on the biggest stories of the times (such as the real stakes of the GWoT, or the real meaning of global trade), and amazingly voluminous vitality in the alleged slip of Scooter Libby's tongue, or a few hours of drunk play by a few rogue soldier/jailers in the early heat of OIF, or a Bush video where he worried about levee 'topping' but failed to repudiate all experts and delphically devine a coming 'breach', or (fill in a thousand blanks).

6 months of data showing a declining death rate does not mean much on its own. It hardly supports the insurgency dieing argument if you take a look at the data presented and note that similiar declines took place between November 2003 - March 2004 and November 2004 - March 2005 but for you I guess, it is now significant when it occurs between November 2005 and March 2006.

If you read the Saban report that I based my writeup on, you see the difference. While the initial estimates were around 1300 deaths in the aftermath of the destruction of the golden dome mosque, most official estimates have been in the 2-500 range. There's your thousand Reporting numbers based on the 1300 deaths seems to be like talking about Katrina in terms of the 25,000 deaths once predicted by mayor Nagin.

For anyone with an interest in the Mohammedan Wars should check out Mr Roggio's site for an update on the Battle of Warizistan and jihad in Pakistan

"... The jihad in Pakistan expands. The Daily Times states last week's bombing in Peshawar "was big enough to indicate that its source was no amateur bomb-maker. It has actually been identified as being of the same make as those found in North Waziristan after the 'foreigners' fled from there." Also, the Daily Times places Tahir Yuldashev in "a meeting in a forest in North Waziristan which was attended by some cabinet members of the MMA government from Peshawar." Yuldashev is the ruthless leader of the al-Qaeda affiliate Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). ... "

Known as the Hamas’ foremost thinker, Mohammad Abu Tir is apparently sure that he has got wise to one of the most secret Elders’ conspiracies:“Even the churches where the Americans pray are led by Jews who were converted to Christianity, but they were converted to keep controlling the Americans,” Mohammad Abu Tir, the number two Hamas terrorist in the newly formed Palestinian Authority government said during an exclusive interview from his home yesterday with top radio host Rusty Humphries and WND Jerusalem bureau chief Aaron Klein.

"Oh, and regarding these Jews “who were converted to keep controlling the Americans”: we do indeed keep an eye on goings on in the churches, but it is just routine monitoring. And it is not performed by Jews - we employ the semi-sentient lizards to do it. They can be easily identified, just check out the people who (seemingly) fall asleep during the sermon." - Meryl Yourish

This is the intellectual big thinker that the EU and the State Department are betting the farm on. I don’t know if that says more about him or more about them.

As far as you can throw themPosted on April 5th, 2006 at 7:20 pm by Laurence Simon.

Filed under: Israeli Double Standard Time

http://www.yourish.com/2006/04/05/1012

Saudi Arabia joined the World Trade Organizaion 6 months ago. Part of the agreement to join was that they would drop all boycotts and treat all fellow members of the WTO equally. This meant dropping the boycott against Israel and working to end the Arab League boycott of Israel.

They promised President Bush that they would do all of this, which was a blatant and obvious lie:

The U.S. Congress passed on Wednesday a unanimous decision calling on President George W. Bush to urge Saudi Arabia to abide by its commitment to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and stop its support of the Arab boycott against Israel.

The Saudi pledge to end the economic boycott on Israel was America’s condition for permitting the Middle Eastern country into the WTO.

In addition, the Saudis were notified some six months ago of their legal obligation to grant preference to WTO members, including Israel.

Saudi Arabia complied, and Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal gave Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice his word that he would act against the Arab boycott. However, the Saudis have not followed through on their commitment and in the meantime have even hosted an annual conference of Muslim organizations responsible for enforcing the boycott.

"Kinda makes you wonder what other promises and laws this man has ignored or broken." - Meryl Yourish

Kinda makes me wonder what sort of negotiators the US has if this is the best we can get from our very good friends the Saudis.

All this talk of casualty figures strikes me as somehow a diversion or sideshow from the task at hand. Rat may come across as contentious but he consistently focuses on the real issue. Whether we are indeed at war or not. He says we are not and frankly, I am beginning to wonder. Of course, my vantage point from the back of the store is blocked by the stove pipe and I can't see the big picture but when we claim to be at war and start arguing over some paltry casualty figures, I suffer a disconnect. Add to that, the talk of funding the murderous Palistinian thugs, granting amnesty to 10 million illegals while another 1500 uninvited guests just traipse across the border every day, an inability to determine whether Islam is the RoP, a domestic leftwing determined only to impeach George Bush but otherwise clueless...my head is about to explode.

Is it just me or does anyone else think this is a friggin insane asylum?

Whit, the trick is to focus on the piece that you are interested in and trust others interests to cover everything else. Trust, that's the rub isn't it? We started electing people for their media presence, oh when? Trust is not what most of our elected leaders are about. I still trust GWB. Not blindly, the jury is constantly out.

From past experience the US is not going to be funding Hamas. Whatever funds get put into that sinkhole go through USAID directly to humanitarian organizations or institutions. That's the way it's supposed to work. Of course Arafat didn't accumulate refuted billions because the rules wotk so well.

Money is fungible, evey dime the US sends to Palistine, by whatever conduit, is a dime the Sauds and Iranians do not have to spend.

If you started breaking the Immigration Law over five years ago, all is forgiven. Long term criminals deserve a break, today.

The Iranian faction is about to form a compromise Government in Iraq, the US celebrates.

Deadlines and tripwires have extended throughout the Iraqi experience, whether the viewer wishes to recongnize them, or not.From preInvasion International politics, to the seasonal weather on the ground. The self imposed deadlines in forming the Iraqi Constitution etc.

The Iraqis will have their Government, their best in the region Security Force, and Mr Mahdi or facsimile will ask US to leave, or at least present a time table for departure.

That would be a reasonable thing for Mr Mahdi or facsimile to do. They have mentioned in at the Cairo Conference and it is a SCIRI (the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) touchstone that US is leaving Iraq, soon.

Panama, my friends, Panama.Much better than Costa Rica. Panama was a US Colony in every aspect but name. They still use the dollar as the primary currancy.

Many International banks and reasonable bank secrecy laws. The Atlantic coast offers clean waters and access to the Caribe. Panama City is a thriving metropolitan city and the PanAmerican Hiway offers the way north by car.

You are absolutely right. But, it has one of the largest ex-pat communities in the Americas. The government is stable, taxes relatively low and the weather is fairly good. Only problem is volcanoes and earthquakes...

Thinking of starting a "Rick's Place" there. You can be an honored guest when you get down there. You too D.R. - BTW, I've heard the same thing, though I haven't done my due diligence on Panama.

That friggin Daniel Ortega is back in the running for prez of Nicaragua. Costa Rica, I dunno--El Salvador was a horror back the last time the Sandinistas were in power. And, no Hugo Jimmy Carter Chavez running a black-gold spigot. I'm hearing from some of my old compadres in eastern Ven that Hugo has a growing cadre of unidentified "people-watchers" moving thru the population.

BTW, a Roggio commenter had this link--looks as if the gov't is fighting well, on the bullets and the hearts/minds (see 'tribal elders').

Iran Says Israel Behind Danish Cartoons Because of "Anger Over Hamas' Victory: The furious international row over the publication of cartoons satirising the prophet Muhammad intensified today when Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claimed it was an Israeli conspiracy motivated by anger over Hamas's win in the Palestinian elections.

"Huh? But but but, the toons ran in September 2005, the Hamas election was January 26th.Why split hairs, right? Let's not let facts get in the way of incitement to kill Jews." - Atlas

There are indications the Region could "pop" again. The Castro brothers may have one dance left. I do not think that Fidel wants to go down in history playing second fiddle to his departed Comrade, Che'.Che' is on more t-shirts than Osama ever dreamt of.

Mr Chavez has bought a lot (100,000) AK's and other assortted equipment.

The Iranians are due for a Havana Summit Meeting come September or October.

Dismiss it if you wish, but there is a Global antiAmerican/ Anglosphere Conspiracy.

More so then there ever was a "Rightwing Conspiracy" to get Mr Clinton.

Hugo just nationalized a few oilfields, and one of the companies hit (looking at the lost investment) announced it would go to a higher court over the deal. Hugo's oil minister announced "they can go to the Celestial Court if they want."

danmyerswhen Jr gets out of the Corps, come Sept, we'll be driving down to Panama.It is a trip I've always wanted to make. I'd reccomend at least checking out Panama before investing in Costa Rica. There is, I'm told, an excessive amount of Government interference in Costa Rica. Kind of a Socialist laziness to the place. I never lived there, though, just second hand reports.

"Dismiss it if you wish, but there is a Global antiAmerican/ Anglosphere Conspiracy."

Who in their right mind would dismiss it? Russia/Iran is one thing, Ven/Mexico is here, with no Europe sleeping giant that will wake up in due time. The Mexican election is huge, that AMLO guy is bad, bad news. How he got neck/neck with PAN so quickly I do not understand.

They say the bargains in real-estate are in the USA midwest. Ahh, the midwest. Just decorate Caribbean-style, speak Spanish around the house, and keep your address in Nebraska. And buy a breeding pair o' hosses.

I have some friends down there, and yes you are correct. The place has always been on my radar, though. I haven't taken the leap yet, have to make 1 more trip. Now, you're going to make me look at Panama.... Can't ignore validation from 3 sources on the place.

Fox News just had sound bites of Frist and Reid talking about how close they to a compromise bill. The Senate plan which focuses on citizenship (amnesty?)will provide for:5 years or more. Easy path; pay fines, learn English

2 years of less. Leave the country and reapply.

Krauthammer says, it's unenforceable. I agree. How do the authorities verify length of residency?

It just came to me, whit, like a lightning bolt out of the clear blue sky.

I was standing on the ruins of a Spanish Fort, at the mouth of the Chagres River, when the true scope of the battle came to me. It was late 1981 and some other than US troops were performing an assualt river crossing below us.

By '83 those troops were kickin' ass on their own, with little or no US supervision. Hell, US law only allowed 54 uniforms into Salvador at a time.

The trouble the US finds itself in emanates from its lack of might against its enemies. We fight with one hand.We should be assassinating, napalming, MOABing Syria,Iran, Saudi Arabia, and any other pip squeek nation in the ME.It makes no sense to deal with cultures that value lying and cheating as an honorable course. Witness the Saudi's admission to the WTO and then hosting a conference on how to destroy the Jews. Destroy their civilizations before they destroy ours. It's really not as complex as some of the theories about who's on first, no he's on second. It's absolutely pitiful how we are manipulated by 17th century cultures. Just destroy them. Lasting peace is a chimera not to be attained by mankind, never has,never will.

"declines took place between November 2003 - March 2004 and November 2004 - March 2005"

If one tracks wounded, rather than deaths, which is a bigger data set, and factors out accidents, the significance is the lack of a fall offensive in Nov 2005. The wounded numbers began to rise in the second half of March, but they have declined again.

The 4 week moving averge weekly wounded range for most of 2004 was 150+, for most of 2005 it was between 100 and 150, so far in 2006, the range appears to between 50 and 100.

Fox ran some video--it looks for all the world like a Star-Wars (or whatever) force-field. An invisible electronic bubble. Next out, a "tractor beam" to pull the launcher in to the target. No doubt screaming "It's Not Fair!"

"The Senate compromise is so convoluted, so complicated, and so unworkable that it surely must have been the work of Senators Rube and Goldberg.

"This is deja vu all over again. The 1986 amnesty law had a similar approach, and that was a catastrophe. It said if you could prove you did agricultural work for just 90 days a year for the previous three years, you would qualify for a green card. The number of those applying for this benefit was three times higher than expected, largely because of fraud, which was rampant. The Senate bill would likewise be vulnerable to fraud on a grand scale and be a nightmare to administer. It is amnesty wrapped in bureaucracy surrounded by fraud." ... "

Let us hope Rafael has attained the same level of performance from their Patriot research. The Patriot system was, as you know, Israel's little contribution to getting around the SALT, protecting the Great Satan.

Now, if the President can be persuaded to resist sharing with his good friend Vladimir.

Things just mount up. One day its penicillin, the next it's missile defense. The Jews, the Jews, damn them to hell!

Charles Krauthammer also said that the bill will result in massive fraud. Congress can play their games but if they don't get control over the border, the American voter will get control over congress.

BTW J.D. Hayworth has more common sense than about 500 other congressmen and 100 senators.

"The Senate compromise is so convoluted, so complicated, and so unworkable that is surely must have been the work of Senators Rube and Goldberg.

"This is déjà vu all over again. The 1986 amnesty law had a similar approach, and that was a catastrophe. It said if you could prove you did agricultural work for just 90 days a year for the previous three years, you would qualify for a green card. The number of those applying for this benefit was three times higher than expected, largely because of fraud, which was rampant.

The Senate bill would likewise be vulnerable to fraud on a grand scale and be a nightmare to administer. It is amnesty wrapped in bureaucracy surrounded by fraud." ---...but POTUS expects Respect in return for his LIES, and some dhimmi's still give it to him.

"Go to San Diego and watch the Marines graduate from Basic traing."---Meanwhile, while they fight and die for us, their CHILDREN going to school in Oceanside are not allowed to bring the flag they fight for, nor wear any other "offensive" (to their sensitive latino classmates, legal and illegal.) displays of patriotism....and MECHA continues to recruit on campus:RACISTS RULE!

You know they have those logos on jet engines, like NO HUMANS STAND HERE portrayed in little red zones pointing in certain directions.

If this electromagnetic field thing really works, don't stand near it.

Reminds me of a Air Force guy I knew, who said him and all his buddies stayed warm on long trans-oceanic flights by snuggling up next to the radar emitter.

Bad idea.

I can't wait to hear how this thing is supposed to work. Ever since I saw "The Day the Earth Stood Still" I've always longed for such a defense.

If I had a choice, at this point, I'd still go for Stealth (in overwhelming numbers, same as it ever was) as my defense, over Force Fields. Although, as I saw on Star Trek in the Sixties, I know Force Fields are the next "Plastic!"

Anyone else heard of the new collage at ORU? I’m reliably told that it will be named the Merle Haggard School of Diplomacy. There is reportedly some problem in working-out the archivolt’s Latin inscription of “You don’t love it?" "Ergo,shove it.”

Habu sez Lasting peace is a chimera not to be attained by mankind, never has,never will.

Not only not achieved by mankind, but not achieved by anything in the five Kingdom System of Living Organisms.

Challenge and competition is the nature of the living universe.

How arrogant must the libs be that think we rise above this by power of our superiority to all who lived before us and all who live around us, (and because we know that God is dead), if only we surrender all evil will cease? If we do nothing, nothing will happen.

I'm sorry, but I'm weird, and I do believe in terror as a viable and valuable tactic.

If there ever is a time when my freedom and my liberty, as well as that of my family and community are at risk, I will not stop at anything to bring pain, death, and terror to my enemies, even if they're just civilians supporting the enemy's military structure.

"Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the problems in Turkey's overwhelmingly Kurdish southeast would be solved through democracy, but he has refused to meet with the leading pro-Kurdish party, the Democratic Society Party.

Kurdish politicians say that Erdogan's government met with leaders of Hamas, the Palestinian group that is on many countries' lists of terrorist organizations, and should be willing to meet with the pro-Kurdish party, which swept local elections in much of the southeast."

We saw similar downward casualty trends in Mar-Apr of '04 AND '05 (http://icasualties.org/oif_a/CasualtyTrends.htm). Is there some kind of sick seasonality to the insurgency? I'd like to think this time it's different (much really has changed) but I am afraid to get my hopes up.

I think there is a two month weather window around this time of year which favors coalition troops. The invasion was originally launced around this time of year in large part because of this I believe. Maybe this decline will hold as Soldier Dad noted with his larger data set of wounded and more relevant analysis. Does this mean we are winning though? There are a whole host of reasons why the numbers could go down other than a win. i.e. they are fighting each other more often, we are staying on base more often, ISF are out patroling ect.

Where are you getting your civilian numbers> Icasualties lists the civilian deaths over the past six months as 465, 583, 344, 591, 688, 901. And the two months before that were 518 and 1524. And August (the month with 1524 fatalities) was a VERY unusual month, as 965 civilians died in a single incident (the shiite stampede).

Of course Buckley draws a rather unfortunate conclusion, from the lowering number of American casualties. I, in my ferocious way, call him out on this on my own wonderful blog, from a safe distance of course. Here: