Sunday Insider: Fourth-and-5

• Of the four first-time NFL head coaches this season, Chuck Pagano has the best situation in Indianapolis. He's got the No. 1 draft pick, no expectations and plenty of time to get it right long-term.

• Of those coaches -- Pagano, Greg Schiano, Dennis Allen and Joe Philbin -- the one most likely to reach the playoffs this year is Schiano. The Bucs have the franchise QB and the talent to prove last year was an aberration.

• Of those four, Philbin will struggle the worst. The Dolphins lack a sense of direction and are a long way from putting the right pieces around Ryan Tannehill. Assuming Tannehill is the right piece himself.

... and two predictions

• In their surge back to the playoffs for the first time since 1999, the Bills will beat the Jets on the road on Sunday and start 3-0 heading into their Week 4 meeting with the Patriots.

• Peyton Manning will throw four touchdown passes in his Broncos debut as Denver thrashes the visiting Steelers and last year's No. 1-ranked defense in prime time.