Stile: 'Conservative' Christie might be the moderate that the GOP seeks in 2016

If the national GOP hunts for a more moderate standard bearer for 2016, it just might make perfect sense to enlist the most conservative governor in modern New Jersey history.

It might sound like a contradiction in terms, but Governor Christie is more moderate than he seems. Yes, he has loudly and unapologetically described himself as a conservative, and, yes, he was embraced as a hero by right-wing industrialists and fawning Fox News hosts.

And Christie has staked out conservative positions on issues, like his repeated opposition to increasing taxes on the wealthy, for example, that leave him out of step with the voters, at least those surveyed after casting their ballots in last Tuesday's election. Nearly six out of 10 voters say they support tax hikes for those earning over $250,000, exit polls showed.

But if you take a wider look at his record, the black-and-white portrait of a conservative governor becomes a much grayer, harder-to-define moderate whose views are not that out of step with Democratic-leaning New Jersey.

Take the thorny issue of illegal immigration, for example. In a 2010 interview with talk show host Sean Hannity, Christie said: "I don't think that you're going to be able to say every person who is in this country illegally is going to go back to their country of origin. That's not going to happen." He didn't say what should be done with illegals, other than say they return to their home country "if practical."

Christie's softer, non-committal tone marked a sharp departure from the GOP candidates who clamored for border fences and deportations. Republican party officials who woke up after Tuesday's election fearing that their stridency may have alienated Latinos, the fastest growing population in the country, might take a cue from Christie's approach. He left the door open for discussion and compromise.

Christie labeled critics of his nomination of a Muslim judge as "crazies," setting off a furor on right-wing blogs.

Conservatives cheered him for withdrawing New Jersey from a regional climate agreement with Northeast states, saying that it was costly and didn't work. But he then turned their heads in disbelief by agreeing that climate change is a manmade problem.

He has openly warred with public employee unions, but never tried to directly cripple their collective bargaining rights, as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker did. Christie has also enthusiastically backed tax credits for major projects like the American Dream Meadowlands mall and the Revel resort in Atlantic City, winning him praise from some of the state's largest hard-hat trade unions.

Christie is a former federal prosecutor who has embraced alternatives to prison that liberals have championed for decades — expanded drug treatment programs and drug courts which let first-time offenders avoid a prison term.

"The magic of Chris Christie is that he has been able to appeal to both moderates and conservatives in his own party," said Patrick Murray, a Monmouth University pollster and political analyst. "They both find something to like about him."

Assuming that the momentary party anger over his embrace of President Obama during superstorm Sandy fades, Christie should remain an appealing figure to party activists in the primaries.

But the bigger question is whether independents and even some Democrats will find something to like about Christie, if he emerges as a nominee going toe-to-toe with, say, Hillary Clinton?

That might sound like some futuristic fantasy for political junkies, given that Christie hasn't even announced that he's running for a second term as governor. But a post-Election Day poll released Wednesday has already started the speculation mill whirring. Public Policy Polling found that voters in New Hampshire, home of the first primary, say Christie is the favorite choice among Republicans for 2016, Clinton the Democrats.

But candidate Christie's strong antiabortion position might haunt him. Christie, who opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is in danger, also cut $7.5 million for family health clinics, which include those that conduct abortions. That position could pose a stark contrast with Clinton, or another pro-choice Democrat, and a growing swath of the electorate. A majority of voters in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire said they believe abortion should be legal all or most of the time, according to exit polls.

Christie's opposition to same-sex marriage also puts him out of step with a growing national trend toward acceptance. Voters in Maryland, Maine and Washington endorsed moves to legalize same-sex marriages and Minnesota voters rejected a measure banning them.

But Christie has taken those positions to mollify conservative activists, he never "wore them on his sleeve" like other Republican candidates, says Murray. Christie's opposition to gay marriage — but not civil unions — is identical to the view held by many centrist Democrats, including President Obama up until last May when he publicly declared his support for gay marriage.

Christie has crafted a reputation as a pragmatist, not an ideologue. He excoriated Obama during the fall until Sandy walloped New Jersey. He quickly dropped the partisan role and openly welcomed Obama's support, and enthusiastically praised him in public.

Setting aside politics for the sake of survival introduced Christie as a refreshing, bipartisan leader to much of the nation, winning plaudits from voters from all partisan stripes. Norman J. Ornstein, a political scientist at the Washington, D.C.-based American Enterprise Institute, said the challenge for Christie is to continue building a bipartisan record over the next four years — assuming, of course, he wins a second term.

"Christie, despite the shots he's taken from the right, has done himself a world of good here," Ornstein said, "It will add to Christie's national profile on this front and if he can keep it up and not revert to other personality characteristics, and if he can continue to find partners among Democrats, that will help him at one level."

And he might just get to that next level as a candidate who is more moderate than his conservative credentials suggest.