One month prior to
the 2004 election, state and national pre-election
polls indicated that the race was a virtual tie. But according to the Final
National
Exit Poll "When Decided" category, Bush won the vote of those who
decided one month before the election by 53-46% and was a 51.2-47.5% overall
winner. On the other hand, the 12:22am NEP showed a virtual 50-50 tie among
those who decided one month before - and Kerry led by 51.2-47.9%.No surprise there. After all, just like all
other demographic categories, Final NEP weights and vote shares were adjusted
to force a match to the recorded vote.

According to the
Final NEP, Kerry won the 9% of voters who decided within 3 days of the election
by 53-44% (or 55-45% of the two-party vote). The 12:22am update indicated it
was 53-40% (57-43% two-party). Pollsters Zogby and Harris estimated that Kerry
won 75% of the late undecided vote. Therefore his True Vote was probably better
than the 51.2% indicated by the 12:22am NEP “When Decided” cross-tabs.

Science works by
assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is
tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes
them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.The Final Exit Poll “When Decided” weights and vote shares do not
agree with historical polling statistics and the conclusions of two
well-respected pollsters with a combined 70 years experience. Therefore, we
must conclude that the 12:22am NEP is close to the True Vote. The Final NEP is
once again exposed for forcing a match to a fraudulent recorded vote through
the use of bogus weights and vote shares.

“The key reason why
I still think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the
challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the
voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent. And
if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less
than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance
you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President
deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the
undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up
their minds about President Bush. The only question left is: Can they vote for
John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower
turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about
John Kerry's fitness”.

Note: Final Zogby
Election Day polling had Kerry winning by 50-47%, with 311 electoral votes,
indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. It was not a good
turnout; it was a great turnout. Officially, 122 million voted in 2004,
compared to 105m in 2000, a net increase of 17m. But a closer analysis
indicates that there must have been close to 30 million new voters. Here’s why:
Approximately five million 2000 voters died prior to 2004. Assuming 95%
turnout, another five million did not vote, so only 95m former 2000 voters
returned to the polls in 2004. In addition, approximately three million ballots
in 2004 were uncounted (a total of 125m were cast).Preliminary National Exit Polls indicated that Kerry won 57-62%
of new voters, or 6m more than Bush.

“The final Harris
Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the
campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods
of polling. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests
that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory. Harris Interactive’s final online survey of
5,508 likely voters shows a three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final
Harris Interactive telephone survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point
lead for President Bush. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted
between October 29, 2004 and November 1, 2004.The telephone survey is consistent
with most of the other telephone polls, which show the race virtually tied.

If this trend is
real, then Kerry may actually do better
than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do
better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the
last three days of the election, and that appears to be the case here. The
reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do
not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they
frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”

This is what the
Gallup poll said about undecided voters:

“In the final USA
TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge
over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a
particular candidate. When Gallup, using
a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support
Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each
candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup
allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races
involving an incumbent”.

Frank Newport,
Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll,
answered questions about undecided voters and Bush approval on Election Day:

Is the presidential
race still too close to call?

Yes. No matter how
you look at the data, the two major-party candidates are neck and neck. Gallup's final Oct. 29-31 CNN/USA
Today/Gallup poll shows that if all registered voters actually turn out (which
is not likely to happen, of course), John Kerry wins over George W. Bush by two
points. Among likely voters, including our estimate of what the remaining
undecided voters will do on Election Day, the race is dead even at 49% for each
candidate.

Analyzing the data
in other ways, such as modifying likely voter assumptions and changing turnout
estimates, doesn't make a substantial difference in the election predictions. The support for both candidates is basically
in the upper-40% range, and the final popular vote may well depend on which
side is best able to mobilize its voters to go to the polls.

How does Gallup
decide how to "allocate" undecided voters?

The allocation
procedure is a Gallup tradition, and represents Gallup scientists' best
estimate of what the final popular vote will be on Election Day.

Here's how it works.
The unallocated numbers in the pool of likely voters (that is, the percentages
of likely voters supporting Bush and Kerry, not including undecided voters) are
49% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. We
assume, based on an analysis of previous presidential and other elections, that
there is a high probability that the challenger (in an incumbent race) will
receive a higher percentage of the popular vote than he did in the last
pre-election poll, while there is a high probability that the incumbent will
maintain his share of the vote without any increase. This has been dubbed the
"challenger rule." There are various explanations for why this may
occur, including the theory that any voter who maintains that he or she is
undecided about voting for a well-known incumbent this late in the game is
probably leaning toward voting for the challenger.

This persistent historical pattern is the
basis for Gallup's decision to allocate the 3% undecided vote to Kerry and
Nader/other, making the final estimate 49% Bush, 49% Kerry, and 2% Nader/other.

Certainly I believe
that Florida is the place to start. With 27 electoral votes, Florida is the
biggest prize of all the states that are still considered to be in play. Our
final poll in Florida gives Kerry the edge, although not outside the margin of
error.

How might the
president's job approval rating influence the outcome of the election?

A president's job approval rating is an
important indicator of re-election probabilities. But like so much else in this
election, this measure isn't giving us a great deal of direction right now.
Bush's job approval has slipped to 48% among national adults and is thus below
the symbolically important 50% point. If we take that 50% line seriously, then
Bush is in a less-than-auspicious position. No president since Harry Truman has
won re-election with a job approval rating below 50%.

But the last two
presidents who lost (George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter) had job approval
ratings much worse than George W. Bush's 48%. He is clearly not as bad off as
they were. On the other hand, the winners
all had job approval ratings well above 50%. Bush is in a gray zone when it
comes to his job approval rating.

What is the impact
of turnout among younger voters?

We've heard a lot
about the impact of younger voters this year. The data indeed show that Kerry
does better among younger voters -- that is, those under age 30. Among all national adults in that age group,
Kerry wins by a 59% to 34% margin.