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I've always wondered--and this is more of a general wondering than something specific to ZIPS--how projection systems handle something completely unprecedented. Either unprecedentedly great (like the year Luis Gonzalez hit 57 homers) or unprecedentedly bad (Adam Dunn's 2011).

He made the team out of spring training & played in a few early season games. His defense was horrible & I believe he sent down for a reliever, though I'm not sure if I'm remembering things correctly.

He's young & athletic enough to play the outfield decently, he just takes really bad routes to balls. He's limited to LF & RF and I'm not really sure how valuable a corner outfielder who hits .260/.320/.380 really is. Plus the Sox already have better versions of Milledge in Lillibridge & De Aza.

I think a lot of Sox fans are banking on De Aza hitting something close to his 2011 numbers, like .300/.350/.450. I think Dan's projection is a lot closer to what he'll hit. I've heard comparisons to Shane Victorino, but Victorino was a solid major league hitter by age 25. De Aza will be 28 next year. This was mentioned on a Sox blog, but I wouldn't mind if they brought in David DeJesus instead of hoping Lillibridge or Jordan Danks will cut it as a 4th outfielder.

If they're going to go the cut-payroll-and-still-try-to-contend route, it seems to me that letting Buehrle go is probably the right move, as much as it pains me to say it. Sale steps right in and, if ZIPS is to be believed, the Sox don't lose much, outside of some innings.

There's been talk of Danks, Quentin and Floyd being dealt to shed more salary/get younger, but if you do that you're leaving pretty gaping holes. I doubt they'd get much in the way of big-time prospects for any of those three, so I'd just as soon hold onto them and go for one more push, on the hopes that:

- Dunn and, to a lesser extent, Peavy bounce back. Peavy's peripherals have been very good while he's been with the Sox. The issue is that he's been hurt, and that his ERA hasn't matched the peripherals. I think the discrepancy between 2011 bWAR versus fWAR was something like 1.5 to 3.0.

- The young players -- Beckham, Morel, Viciedo and Flowers -- are able to take a step forward. Beckham hit a wall this year and looked atrocious at the plate. Morel had an encouraging second half, and given his glove, a 90 OPS+ or so makes him a useful player. I'm not sure if Flowers will get a starting shot like the others will, but if Pierzynski can be dealt (1 year, $6 million, IIRC), that's probably another chance to save some money without losing much production.

- The pitching staff bounces back. I think the 2011 Sox finished finished second in all of baseball in pitching fWAR, which I found pretty surprising. Humber's likely to fall back a bit, but the rest of the staff are likely a good bet to match or better their 2011 numbers, which they'll more-than-need to do if the Sox hope to compete with Detroit, Cleveland and/or Kansas City.

I've always wondered--and this is more of a general wondering than something specific to ZIPS--how projection systems handle something completely unprecedented.

There's a lot of ways to approach it mathematically, but it's worth remembering that there's a lot of "trials" happening as we observe baseball players, and as such really bizarre things will happen from time to time.

Most systems essentially split the difference between "new level of play" and "bizarre fluke" by simply weighting the most recent season more heavily than the past ones, but still drawing significant info from seasons two and three years ago.

In this case, the end result is a player Adam Dunn has never actually been in the big leagues. but sometimes that's precisely what happens (Wade Boggs after 1992 is a decent example).

Milledge is currently a fa - rumored to be considering Japan. He could help a team as a platoon guy (with de Aza, who has large splits), but that might be it - and people don't explicityly platoon so much.

I've been a near one-man touting machine for de Aza's cromulency for years on this site. That's still what he is - nice glove for a corner, adequate bat v. righties, some speed without knowing how to run.

Can no one hit *and* field on this team? I guess Alexei, kind of. Ugh - what a horrid org to look at - they're a better AL version of Houston.

I'm rooting for Axelrod, though (changeup specialist plunked out of indy ball after SD cut him for reasons that weren't clear at the time).

Can no one hit *and* field on this team? I guess Alexei, kind of. Ugh - what a horrid org to look at - they're a better AL version of Houston.

I think Konerko's fine with the glove. At age 36, he doesn't have much range of course. But he can get to balls near to him with few mistakes & he's a pickin machine (this is especially valuable considering Ramirez is erratic with his throws).

If only Beckham can bump his OBP up about 50 points he'd basically be Mark Ellis because his defense is amazing.

Dan, I apologize if you've answered this before and I missed it in other comment sections,but...

You mentioned last year that you were toying with the idea of creating a projection disk that could be used with DMB10, is that still on the table? Or is it going to remain on DMB9 only? Our league has always used DMB9 so I don't care, just want to know. Thanks.