Wednesday, 25 February 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from UK ELECTION TREND

Some improvement for Labour's chances over last week, however that's
mainly due to the ICM outlier ageing out of the recent average, and the
model forgetting about older polling from last year. As we move closer
to the election, the window the model considers when judging momentum
reduces. The window now starts at the period where Labour's figure
dipped then stabilised last September. Which means that the model has
just gone from seeing Labour's momentum as gently downwards, to being
somewhat static around the current average.

The Conservative momentum is almost as static, with a very very slight
downwards trend. However, even the weak revert to mean being applied is
still more substantial than this trend so the prediction is still a
close VI result.

Looking at polling this week, it does look like this static position is
very resistant to change, even after major news scandals. However, this
includes an Opinium survey following methodology changes, that altered
how they re-weight their figures. Opinium use a voter identification
weighting, and base part of that on votes cast at the European Election.
I doubt if that's entirely appropriate, as European Elections are not
General Elections, and the voting patterns are not the same.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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