Without Breaux, only one race will be competitive so I think it wouldn't be worth it. Everyone will have R 40 or 50 or D 40 or 50, so almost everyone will tie. It would also be reasonable to think Barbour or Jindal could break 60

The only Republicans to ever break 60% in Mississippi are entrenched Senators and downballot races that we simply didn't have a remotely good candidate for.There is no way that Eaves will be held under 40, considering his money and the demographics of Mississippi.

Recent reports indicate she may be reconsidering given the current lack of a strong Democratic nominee. The current Democratic front runner appears to be a state senator who literally switched back to being a Democrat just last week on April 26th.

Recent reports indicate she may be reconsidering given the current lack of a strong Democratic nominee. The current Democratic front runner appears to be a state senator who literally switched back to being a Democrat just last week on April 26th.

I know the situation but this thread acts if he is running and as of now she is not.

MS = Safe RepublicanLA = Likely RepublicanKY = Lean Dem - the reason why it lies in this category is b/c I want to see who the Dem nominee is; whether Fletcher is the Rep nominee (and I now suspect he will be); and I want to see a few horse race polls so I can see how weak (or maybe not as weak) Fletcher is against the Dem. SUSA approval polls are nice for us to make comments, but they are not dispositive in horse races.

MS = Safe RepublicanLA = Likely RepublicanKY = Lean Dem - the reason why it lies in this category is b/c I want to see who the Dem nominee is; whether Fletcher is the Rep nominee (and I now suspect he will be); and I want to see a few horse race polls so I can see how weak (or maybe not as weak) Fletcher is against the Dem. SUSA approval polls are nice for us to make comments, but they are not dispositive in horse races.

Why bother reposting exactly what you said!

Although I personally don't call anything safe this far out, it would take a miracle in Mississippi for the Democrats.

Even if Anne Northup wins the primary (which looks unlikely, given that she trailed in both primary polls we've seen), she is not the conservative-populist kind of Republican who can win over leftist rural Kentucky. She'd probably do better somewhere like Ohio that is less Republican but has more suburbs to draw from. Fletcher would lose badly to any of the leading Democrats.

Louisiana is only Lean GOP because we don't know the Democratic candidate yet and because the demographics of Louisiana are unpredictable so poll weighting may be inaccurate. Finally, Jindal lost in 2003 largely due to racism; we may see that repeat in 2007.