The Design and Regulation of Securities Markets: Celebrating the 30 Years Since Kyle Met Glosten and Milgrom and We Moved From Chalkies to Co-Location

11th August 2015 - 12th August 2015, Sydney

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The Centre for International Finance and Regulation (CIFR) is pleased to announce a conference celebrating 30 years of research and innovation since the publication of two path-breaking papers in market microstructure. Both Kyle (Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading) and Glosten and Milgrom (Bid, Ask and Transactions Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders) have had a significant impact on the regulation and design of security markets throughout the world. Keynote speakers are Lawrence R. Glosten and A.S. “Pete” Kyle.

Papers submitted to the Conference must address regulation or design-related aspects of financial markets, with presentations tailored for an audience of academics, senior market regulators and key industry professionals.

On 19th December, CEPR and the Bank of England hosted a joint workshop to discuss Thomas Piketty’s seminal work ‘Capital in the 21st Century’. Chaired by the Bank’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane, the panel comprised Peter Lindert, Jaume Ventura, Orazio Attanasio and Tim Besley, each of whom spoke on inequality and related issues, and Thomas Piketty, who responded to each presenter. The panel presentations were on:

- Where Has Modern Equality Come From? Lucky vs. Smart Paths in Economic History

The ECB may soon launch QE. Two of Europe’s leading macroeconomists argue that QE is the ECB’s last anti-deflation tool – it must not be sacrificed to political expediency. The risk-sharing debate is secondary to the programme’s size and duration – one example would be €60 billion per month for one year, or until inflation expectations rose to near 2%. The ECB should also explain that no matter how well the monetary part of the programme is designed, an accompanying fiscal expansion is critical to QE’s effectiveness.

Related

Now that a European quantitative easing (QE) is almost a sure thing, the question is how it will be implemented. Implementation details are of first-order importance for the success of the programme. Fudges or opaque wording are to be avoided at all costs, because QE also works through expectations. Indeed, the experience of other major central banks suggests that announcement effects are key.

Teaser

At the Lindau meeting of Nobel laureates and young economists this week, Edmund Phelps argued that a loss of dynamism in the western world is stalling innovation, reducing productivity growth and threatening future prosperity. In this wide-ranging interview with Mark Thoma, they discuss his ideas, as well as inequality, austerity and graduate economics education.

It is well-known that World War I was expensive for Britain. The indirect economic costs were also huge. This column argues that the adverse implications of the Great War for post-war unemployment and trade – together with the legacy of a greatly increased national debt – significantly reduced the level of real GDP throughout the 1920s. A ballpark calculation suggests the loss of GDP during this period roughly doubled the total costs of the war to Britain.

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World War I was not over by Christmas of 1914. It was a prolonged, brutal, and expensive conflict. Britain incurred 715,000 military deaths (with more than twice that number wounded), the destruction of 3.6% of its human capital, 10% of its domestic and 24% of its overseas assets, and spent well over 25% of its GDP on the war effort between 1915 and 1918 (Broadberry and Harrison, 2005). Yet that was far from the sum of the losses that the Great War inflicted on the British economy; economic damage continued to accrue throughout the 1920s and beyond.

The CEPR Press eBook on secular stagnation has been viewed over 80,000 times since it was published on 15 August 2014. The PDF remains freely downloadable, but as the European debate on secular stagnation is moving into policy circles, we decided to also make it a Kindle book. This is available from Amazon; all proceeds will help defray VoxEU expenses.

Six years after the Crisis and the recovery is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates. Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? This column introduces an eBook that gathers the views of leading economists including Summers, Krugman, Gordon, Blanchard, Koo, Eichengreen, Caballero, Glaeser, and a dozen others. It is too early to tell whether secular stagnation is really secular, but if it is, current policy tools will be obsolete. Policymakers should start thinking about potential solutions.

How should UK policy-makers respond to potential dangers to the economy from the housing market? As this column reports, a majority of respondents to the fourth monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) think that house price dynamics do pose a risk to the UK’s recovery; and that macroprudential tools rather than traditional interest rate policy should be deployed to deal with this risk.

The Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) – an ESRC-funded research centre including the University of Cambridge, the London School of Economics (LSE), University College London (UCL) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) – is today publishing the results of its fourth monthly survey.1 The surveys are designed to inform the public about the views held by leading UK-based macroeconomists on important questions about macroeconomics and public policy.

Untangling trade and technology: Evidence from US labour markets

Teaser

David Autor talks to Viv Davies about his recent research that analyses the differential effects of trade and technology on employment patterns in US local labour markets between 1990 and 2007. While the effect of trade competition is growing over time, the effect of technology has shifted from automation of production activities in the manufacturing sector towards computerisation of information-processing tasks in the service sector. The interview was recorded in April 2014 at the annual conference of the Royal Economic Society.

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Love it or hate it... the dollar's here to stay

Teaser

Eswar Prasad talks to Viv Davies about his recent book, ‘The Dollar Trap: How the US dollar tightened its grip on global finance’, which examines how, paradoxically, in light of the financial crisis, the dollar continues to play a central role in the world economy and why it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. They also discuss the current frameworks for international economic cooperation as well as currency wars, unconventional monetary policy and the prospects for the renminbi becoming the world's reserve currency. The interview was recorded in London in March 2014.

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Greece needs debt reduction. This column argues that instead of offering another lengthening of maturities and reduction in interest rates, Eurozone leaders should seize the occasion and implement debt-for-equity swaps that would encourage foreign investment, speed privatisation and jumpstart the Greek economy.

Related

Last week, Eurogroup finance ministers in their wisdom decided that there would be no debt relief or restructuring for Greece until the end of the summer. Evidently they wish to avoid exciting voters in the European Parliament elections in May. This is regrettable, since it only puts off the inevitable and forces the Troika to use smoke and mirrors to fill the government’s funding gap.