Friday, January 11, 2013

Bargains and Busts: 2012 A.L. Hitters

UPDATE 1/14/2013. Mike Trout's "PK" bid limit has been changed. In his final update, Peter Kreutzer had Trout at $5, not as an R1.Seems like all have to do
every year with this chart is flip some of the names around, flip some of the dollar amounts
around, and then call it a day.

After three years of CBS
being far ahead (probably too far ahead) of the pack on average salaries, they finally saw the light and
decided to stop spending big on the top hitters.

In the American League in
particular this makes a lot of sense, since the best hitters seldom earn over
$40.

Top 10 Earnings, A.L.
Hitters 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Mike
Trout

$47

6

40

7

8

4

5

$4

2

Miguel
Cabrera

$40

39

1

39

40

39

39

$36

3

Alex
Rios

$33

17

16

16

18

16

18

$10

4

Josh
Hamilton

$33

25

7

24

26

26

25

$26

5

Adrian
Beltre

$32

29

3

30

29

29

28

$26

6

Edwin
Encarnacion

$31

16

15

14

17

18

16

$17

7

Robinson
Cano

$31

36

-5

33

39

37

34

$32

8

Adam
Jones

$30

26

4

29

23

25

26

$24

9

Prince
Fielder

$29

31

-2

31

32

30

33

$34

10

Billy
Butler

$28

22

6

19

22

25

22

$22

Average

$33

25

9

24

25

25

25

$23

Mike Trout is the outlier
to end all outliers: a 20-year-old phenom who turned a $40 profit...or $10 more
than the most surprising A.L. hitter in the last four years (Jose
Bautista, +30, 2010). Otherwise, this is a fairly vanilla chart. Since
only eight American League hitters cracked the $30 barrier last year, the
average earnings are the lowest they've been since 2009 despite the presence of
Trout and Cabrera.

Trout's also an outlier
because of his salary. Everyone else here cost at least $16 or more and seven
of the 10 hitters in the Top 10 earnings cost $22 or more. Even with Trout,
this isn't a cheap group of hitters. A $25 salary was good for the 23rd most expensive
hitter last year. The story is the same as it usually is; if you want a top-of-the-line
hitter, you usually have to pay for it.

Top 10 Profits, A.L.
Hitters 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Mike
Trout

$47

6

40

7

8

4

5

$4

2

Rajai
Davis

$24

5

19

5

6

3

6

$13

3

Michael
Saunders

$19

0

18

1

3

($1)

4

Kyle
Seager

$19

3

17

2

2

4

4

$4

5

Alex
Rios

$33

17

16

16

18

16

18

$10

6

Edwin
Encarnacion

$31

16

15

14

17

18

16

$17

7

Josh
Reddick

$21

6

15

6

7

5

5

$8

8

David
Murphy

$21

6

14

5

11

3

12

$14

9

Jeff
Keppinger

$15

2

13

2

3

2

3

$9

10

Chris
Davis

$21

9

12

10

7

11

9

$5

Average

$25

7

18

7

8

7

8

$8

Trout, Rios, and
Encarnacion crack both the Top 10 hitters and the Top 10 profits lists.
Everyone else is a significant surprise.

However, the surprises
aren't as dramatic as they have been in the past. A $12 profit on Chris Davis
is the lowest profit on the 10th most profitable hitter by $2 or more from
2009-2011. The hitters at the bottom of the barrel weren't as likely to turn into
gold. Without Trout, the rest of these hitters turned a tepid $15 profit per
hitter.

That's still a strong
number, but not nearly as strong as we've seen in years prior.

It
doesn't matter if Trout is an outlier or not; in the end it all comes out in
the wash.

Top 10 Losses, A.L.
Hitters, 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Jacoby
Ellsbury

$11

36

-25

35

36

37

36

$45

2

Brett
Gardner

$2

26

-24

28

25

25

24

$25

3

Jose
Bautista

$16

35

-19

38

35

32

36

$34

4

Evan
Longoria

$14

32

-19

33

33

31

31

$20

5

Carl
Crawford

$6

23

-17

23

23

23

19

$16

6

Peter
Bourjos

$3

19

-16

19

17

22

16

$19

7

Adrian
Gonzalez

$19

35

-16

36

36

33

38

$36

8

Eric
Hosmer

$14

27

-13

28

25

28

26

$23

9

Mark
Teixeira

$16

29

-13

29

30

29

28

$24

10

Ryan
Raburn

($2)

11

-13

11

9

12

10

$11

Average

$10

27

-18

28

27

27

26

$25

The 10 biggest losers lose
just about as much money as the 10 biggest profit-makers. It has never worked
out this neatly before, but for the entire player population the hitters should
earn $2,100 and they get paid $2,100 (more or less). The expert leagues have
been paying hitters a little bit more the last few years, but they haven't
moved to the extreme position of paying $190-200 per team. So the values will
always be close.

Take note of the fact that
while there are a number of big-ticket items on this list, all of them return
at least $10 or more back for their owners (unless you consider Gardner a big
ticket item). Ellsbury is a tough pill to swallow but as weird as it sounds I'd
rather have him than Raburn...particularly in an A.L.-only league where the
free agent pool is dismally thin.

This always sounds odd to
my new readers, but taking an $11 loss on the Top 10 hitters isn't as terrible
as it sounds. Getting a $24 hitter for a big investment isn't horrible. You
want to make sure you get stats, and $24 worth of stats from a hitter is good,
just as long as you spend wisely elsewhere on the food chain.