Feltbot’s 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts, Part One

I normally like to wait until mid-training camp before drafting my fantasy basketball teams. That gives me time to accumulate a little more information about which players are healthy and in shape to start the season, and which players might have increasing or decreasing roles with their teams. But many people are already starting to draft, and since I have nothing pleasant to discuss on the Warriors front, I’ll drop a few pre-training camp thoughts on the upcoming fantasy season.

This is Part One. Look for an update (Part Two) midway through training camp.

I use Basketball Monster as my stat service: they are the source of all the projections referred to below. If you use a different service such as Yahoo or CBS, your projections might differ greatly. Please keep this in mind while reading the following. All of my opinions are price sensitive, ie. directly correlated to where players are projected.

SLEEPERS

Jrue Holiday: I’m seeing Holiday forecast at #41, up slightly from his #49 performance of last season. I think this positive forecast might still be too low, particularly since he is not forecast to improve at all in assists (6.3) and fg% (.444). Something tells me that Doug Collins might be very disappointed if Holiday’s assist totals don’t increase dramatically now that his team features Andrew Bynum in the middle. Bynum is a beast of a finisher, something Holiday’s never had before. And Holiday’s three-point shooters (JRich, Nick Young, Dorell Wright) will be more wide open than ever before, with defenses focused on Bynum. He’ll have targets all over the floor.

Another factor affecting Holiday’s assist totals this season will be the departure of Andre Iguodala. Iggy is a terrific offensive initiator, who was often played as a point-forward in Philly’s system. With him gone, Holiday should have the ball in his hands more often.

I have to think Holiday’s scoring efficiency will improve as well due to these same factors. Whom will opposing defenses target in the pick and roll, Bynum or Holiday?

Dorell Wright: While we’re focusing on the Bynum effect, why not bring DWright into the discussion? I show Wright projected at #115, based on getting 26 min/gm. I think that is ridiculously low.

Two years ago, DWright finished as the #29 player in fantasy basketball. A mid-third rounder in value. I think there is a distinct possibility that he could return to those levels under Doug Collins.

There was a lot of talk in the Bay Area media that the league made an adjustment to DWright last season. That he was being guarded more closely at the three point line. I think that talk was BS. DWright came into the lockout season way out of shape, and never succeeded in winning the trust of Mark Jackson. And Mark Jackson proved himself one of the most incompetent coaches in the league, who refused to let the Warriors — and DWright in particular — play their uptempo game.

That won’t happen this season. First of all, you can forget about that “adjustment:” DWright is going to be back in shape, and as wide open on the three point line as he has ever been, playing with Andrew Bynum. And unlike Mark Jackson, Doug Collins believes in getting his team out into the open court, which is where Wright goes from being a mediocre player to one of the top players in the league.

One important factor degrading DWright’s current fantasy value is that Evan Turner is currently ahead of him on the depth chart at SF. I’m not convinced that won’t change as the season goes on. (Note that Turner is projected at #124, getting 35 minutes! He is not a very good NBA player.) Collins needs to spread the floor around Bynum. He already has non-shooters at center and power forward. Can he really afford another non-shooter at the three?

One thing I am convinced of: If Wright gets 30+ minutes a game this season, he will be one of the steals of the fantasy draft. Scoop him in the late rounds.

Kawhi Leonard: Not sure why Leonard is only projected at 26 minutes. With the departure of Richard Jefferson, I can easily see him getting a significant bump in minutes, including some at small-ball power forward.

Word out of San Antonio is that Popovich loves this guy, and is looking to get him more involved on the offensive end.

Monta Ellis: Two seasons ago Ellis finished as the 8th ranked player in fantasy. The year before that, 12th. Last season, starting the season for an incompetent coach, and dealing with a midseason trade that drastically curtailed his value, he finished at #32.

So why in the world should he be forecast this season at #49? And 19 points on .440 shooting? Seems awfully low to me. Particularly in a contract year.

Monta will not be as deferential to Jennings in his second season on the Bucks. And if Skiles wants to make the playoffs, he will give Monta the keys to the offense. Jennings is simply not in his league as a basketball player (but he’s ranked #22!).

This analysis comes with a caveat: The Bucks are highly likely to trade Monta at midseason, which could affect his usage.

But if he somehow lasts to the third round in your draft GRAB HIM. I’d draft him in the second round, myself.

INJURY SLEEPERS

David Lee: Lee is projected at #37 this season, while finishing last season at #27. The decline is of course to be attributed to the acquisition of Andrew Bogut, who is expected to take away many of Lee’s touches and rebounds.

I’m not so sure. If Bogut plays, he might actually wind up creating a few high quality touches for Lee because of his unselfishness and terrific passing ability. And I don’t buy the rebounding argument. I think weak-side rebounders like Lee are actually helped by the presence of a great defensive center. (See Rodman, Dennis.)

But the real reason I think Lee may be projected too low is that I am highly sceptical of Bogut’s ability to play healthy for a full NBA season. (see Busts, below).

Derrick Favors: I have no reason to suspect that Al Jefferson or Paul Milsap will get injured this season, except that they have been injury prone in their careers. Favors is a physical monster, and you could see the light bulb begin to turn on for him late last season. He has expressed a desire for more minutes, and just may wind up getting them. Currently projected at #129 and 27 minutes, I might risk one of my last picks on him.

BUSTS

Dwight Howard: Howard finished his injury-marred last season ranked 35th. The two years before that he ranked 15th and 28th.

So is he really deserving of his #7 ranking this season? I understand the virtues of playing with Steve Nash, but don’t forget he’s also playing with the most selfish player in the league, Kobe Bryant.

And no one seems to be taking that back surgery into account. For a 6-9″ player who relies strictly on super-human power and athleticism for his effectiveness, I am not willing to assume that he will automatically return to playing at the same level as past seasons. Heck, there’s not even a time-table set for his return yet. How certain can we be of that 76 game projection?

I wouldn’t touch Howard in the first round, and even taking a flyer on him in the second round could cost you your season. Too risky for me.

Andrew Bogut: Bogut is projected at 73 games and 32 min/gm this season. Seriously? If you haven’t already done so, read my “The Truth about Andrew Bogut” piece for the reasons why I think this projection is absurd.

Bogut is simply too risky to draft where he is projected, at #66. If you can pick him up with one of your last three picks, mazeltov. You might hit the lottery.

Anthony Davis: I show Davis ranked at #39, which strikes me as way too high. Consider that Dirk Nowitzki is ranked #40, and Blake Griffin is ranked at #74!

I’m going way out on a limb here, because I’ve only watched Davis play for about a minute, in the NCAA tournament. But that minute was enough to make me fear that he might have a far more rocky transition to the NBA than many think. He strikes me as being a little weak for the NBA power forward position. I think he’ll struggle with the pounding, struggle shooting the ball, and I think he’s an injury risk.

I will probably revisit this analysis mid-training camp, but for right now I’m willing to state unequivocally that anyone who drafts this guy ahead of Nowitzki needs his head examined.

OJ Mayo: Currently penciled in as the Mav’s starting shooting guard, Mayo is a completely overrated player, even at #84, where he is projected. Mayo is too undersized and unathletic to comfortably get his shot off at the NBA level. His 42% shooting will hurt you.

And his execrable defense will hurt Rick Carlisle’s brain. I’m already projecting the Mavs to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league, what with that Kamanosaurus – Nowitzki front line. I have severe doubts that Mayo even survives the season in the starting role.

There’s no one better on the roster. (Vince Carter? Monsieur Beaubois?) But there’s always the D-League.

John Wall: Ranked last season at #33, projected this season at #19, largely because of a projected increase in his shooting percentage from 42% to 44%. Really?

Not a believer.

Jeremy Lin: Projected at #30, ahead of point guards like Mike Conley and Jrue Holiday. Seriously?

Lin finished last season ranked 49th. But he was playing most of that time in Mike D’Antoni’s system, on the New York Knicks.

Who will Lin’s targets be on the Houston Rockets? Who will he run pick and roll with? Asik? Motiejunas? Patterson? Good luck with that 7.5 asst/gm projection. He averaged 6.7 over the last two months FOR THE KNICKS.

And what about that .437 shooting % projection? Over the last two months of the season, Lin shot .414%. Ouch. If he shoots that for your fantasy team, you’re dead.

And 18 ppg? Hmmm.

Lin at #30 is one of the most absurd projections I’ve seen this year. I think there is even a significant possibility that Lin winds up a complete bust. He’s on a lousy team, so opponents will be able to focus their defense on stopping him. And the entire league has the book on him now: force him left, go under the picks and let him heave.

I also don’t think Lin can survive long playing the style he played last year: all-out recklessness every play, throwing himself into 7 footers to draw contact. It resulted in a knee surgery last season, and if he keeps it up, it won’t be his last.

I’m leaving Lin completely off my board.

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The above is obviously an incomplete list, off the top of my head. Stay tuned for my mid-training camp update, which will include analysis of an additional crop of players. I would in particular like to generate an opinion of Dion Waiters, currently projected #144 after a lousy summer league. I was highly impressed with some college tape I saw of him, and just have a funny feeling he’ll make an exceptional pro, running with Kyrie Irving.

If you have particular sleeper/bust candidates you’re interested in getting my opinion on, let me know in the comments.

I’m curious what you think of Curry at #6. He’s been ranked high in both of the previous two preseasons… but hasn’t quite lived up to it for various reasons we’ve all discussed a million times.

Seems like this could (should) be a break out year with Monta gone and a more balanced team (if healthy, of course). Given his FG, FT,3FG%, PPG, and above average rebounding and steal rates for his position he could be a fantasy monster. His only downside will be TO’s, but you get that with most PGs who aren’t Chris Paul.

Curry is an elite fantasy player when healthy, no doubt. But what is his upside if you draft him at #6? If he has a completely miraculous season you’ll be getting the #4 player (behind LBJ, Durant and Paul).

And if his ankle problems return? Well then, your fantasy season is up in smoke. It comes down to risk/reward. I just don’t see any of the substantial risk reflected in that #6 ranking.

The real problem for fans like you and me is what happens when Curry slips to us at #12? That’s where I rolled the dice on him last year. And lost.

Objectively, I wouldn’t be surprised if statistical analysis showed that where there are serious chronic injury concerns, you shouldn’t risk taking even a dominant player until the third round or later.

But having said that, I have no confidence in my ability to bypass Curry if he falls to me again at #12. Too big a fan, and too little money at risk.

With training camp about a week away we’ll begin to get answers on lots of GSW subject matter very shortly, with the current and future health status of Andrew Bogut at the very top of that want-to-know list for most Warriors fans.

Asking someone who’s on the outside looking in, so to speak, to comment and give opinions on Bogut’s health going forward is, at the very least, somewhat unfair given the uncertainty and pure speculation involved. And that’s true for even someone as highly qualified to speak on medical issues (in the world of sports) as Dr. Ali Mohamadi.

Late last week I went searching for his email address, was able to find it, and asked for his thoughts on Bogut’s health. Here was my email followed by his response that I received this morning. Bottom line? We’ll all find out before much longer.

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Hi, Dr. Mohamadi. Thanks so much for your reply and your time.

I found a few links that might help paint a slightly better picture of Bogut’s situation but unfortunately I’ve yet to find any specifics on his injury other than he suffered a broken ankle. Originally they thought it was a bad sprain but x-rays revealed otherwise. Apparently there was no surgery performed initially, like there was when Posey was injured.

Bogut was placed in a cast and only after being traded to the Warriors (and a number of months after the injury took place) was surgery performed (as a follow-up procedure to remove loose particles in the ankle area).

As I wrote yesterday his rehab has progressed as planned, at least according to reports issued by the Warriors and interviews of Bogut himself. The blog moderator is making a lot of “educated guesses” based on what he has read about the injury, and from reading about osteoarthritis in relation to injuries I imagine he could be right but I’m hoping otherwise. My thinking is if he’s affected in this regard it would probably be later in life and not so much now, but that’s just a very uninformed guess.

Thanks for the info, and I tried to dig into it a bit more as well. The truth is, we simply don’t have enough information to be able to definitively say that Bogut will or will not be able to play at the level he did before. To say that he already has or will imminently develop osteoarthritis seems premature to me. I would agree that this is something that typically develops over time — it can be hastened by an injury such as this, but to say that this is absolutely the case for Bogut, especially given how little we actually know about the injury itself, seems hasty to me. Look at it this way: you guys have the luxury of having watched Buster Posey recover amazingly well from what was considered a devastating ankle injury. Granted, the rigors of a basketball season and the specific type of wear on the ankle are both different than baseball, but I really haven’t read anything so far that tells me that Bogut’s prognosis is as grim as some feel.

I know it’s not a definitive answer by any stretch, but hopefully this provides you some reassurance. We’ll only know when he actually takes the floor.

George Karl wants to reduce the number of games the NBA plays a season:

The difference between Karl’s stab at 62 games, “whatever number they come to,” and the 65 his team actually has to play between Dec. 1st and the end of the season might not seem significant, but George would be the first to tell you that three extra nights without a game would mean the world to his team, even if it is only spaced out over 19 weeks. A proper practice and good bit of rest are as highly coveted as a 7-footer that can walk and chew gum at the same time, and given his druthers we’re sure Karl would lower that “62” or “65” if he could; even if it meant more overall work for George and his coaching staff.

OT: A lot of uproar ongoing with the replacement refs, with the ending of the game Monday night lighting up cyberspace with fans whining like crazy and screaming for the NFL to bring back the regular refs immediately.

It’s hilarious to me how quickly everyone forgets all the mistakes the regular refs made and most assuredly will continue to make whenever they return.

The call on Monday night? IMO, the right call. For anyone who disagrees please watch this TD catch made by the Cowboys’ Miles Austin and tell me what was different from the play the other night?

Pass interference? And when was the last time PI was called on a jump ball/Hail Mary pass in the end zone? How about the 12th of NEVER.

As for who had the ball “immediately”, it sure looks to me like the DB is the first to get his hands on the ball. And even Cris Collinsworth makes that distinction in his comments, saying more than once that Austin “took the ball away from Cromartie”.

Again, those two plays are, with the exception of the crowded end zone and Hail Mary situation, identical in both nature and ruling. Simultaneous possession goes to the offensive player. When each play was over, and during most of the process that led to the end of each play, there were four hands on both footballs. Touchdown Dallas, touchdown Seattle.

While the replacement refs have obviously struggled more often than not they’ve also been subjected to extreme scrutiny in each and every call they make, which again brings back into question the competence of the regular refs in comparison. Better? Absolutely. But I can’t wait for the whiners to be back in full throat complaining about bad officiating after the regular refs are back. I’d lay the over/under number at 2 games before the bellowing is back. LOL

“[Bogut] isn’t expected to be ready at the start of training camp Tuesday, but Jackson is hopeful Bogut will be in the starting lineup for the regular-season opener at Phoenix on Oct. 31.”

No news here.

“Jackson points to is the noise he hears in the gym, weight room and video room at all hours. Since Labor Day, he said every player has been at Golden State’s facility except beleaguered backup center Andris Biedrins, who is owed $9 million this season and has a $9 million player option for 2013-14.”

And this is unforgivable on AB’s part.

Jackson, refreshingly, was reserved when he spoke. Let’s hope it lasts.

On whether he’ll be more creative with this year’s team than he was with last year’s team:

Jackson: I think when you look on the floor, the weapons we have, you don’t really have to be creative. Those guys can score. If you look at the great coaches or the great teams, there’s nothing creative about throwing the ball to Michael Jordan on the foul line or Kobe on the wing … That’s not creative. That’s just some bad boys getting it done when it matters most.

I’m pretty sure Pat Riley and Phil Jackson never said anything similar. And stating the painfully obvious, the Warriors don’t have a MJ or Kobe. Which leaves the question as to what Jackson can do, other than give “motivational” speeches, which these guys don’t need.

Maybe this is being hypercritical of an offhand statement, but it sounds as if Jackson not only learned nothing last season, he believes there IS nothing to learn about his job. A complete dismissal of the importance of knowledge and skill. The NBA’s very own Sarah Palin?

-Q: You have a feel for how this team is going to play–you went into last year with Monta and Steph and going up and down. Now you have Bogut… Are you going to be more of a half-court team?

-JACKSON: No, no, no. I think the advantage with this team is we will able to play both styles. When you talk about our ability to score on the perimeter, score in transition, you talk about the ability of having, when Bogut’s ready to go, two guys at the 4 and the 5 that can score, can post, exceptional passers…

I think one of our greatest strengths will be our ability to push the basketball and also to execute in the half-court offense. No longer will we be a team that’s perimeter-dominated with one post player.

-Q: What’s Bogut’s status now?

-JACKSON: He’s certainly progressing and it’s important for us to stay true to the timetable, to listen to him, to listen to the doctors. As far as I’m concerned, we’ll see how he is physically and we’ll move forward.

But I’m a guy that looks at when it matters most, I look forward to him being as healthy as possible.

-Q: Will he be participating in next week’s practices?

-JACKSON: I’m not really sure. It depends on how he feels and what the doctors say. We’re going to be very wise and stay true to the timetable. I’m not really sure how much he’s going to participate in live practices next week.

-Q: You have a starting small forward in mind right now?

-JACKSON: I really don’t. I’ve watched… Ultimately what you do is you roll the ball out and you let those guys decide who starts. At the end of the day, I think it’s important–doesn’t mean who’s the best player–what makes us better as a team. And I’ll make that decision going forward watching them, watching them as a unit and seeing where we’re at.

But right now, I don’t have an answer for who my starting small forward is.

-Q: What did you think of Harrison Barnes in the summer league and maybe since he’s been working out here?

-JACKSON: I think he’s a very good player with a bright future. Works extremely hard. I’m at the gym, I don’t know, 10 or 11 o’clock last night, and he’s in the film room and he’s going over film. And we wind up with some of the coaches and the video people with three or four rookies just going to grab a bite…

He wants to be great. I think a lot of guys say it but they don’t act on it. It’s going to be important for him to continue to grow, continue to build. Adversity’s going to come. Tough nights are going to come. Missed shots are going to come. Getting your head handed to you by the elite in the world. You’re going to have nights like that.

At the end of the day, he’s a kid who works very hard, is extremely talented, and can do some things on this level.

He’s definitely going to play. I think ultimately the question will be whether he starts or comes off the bench. But he had a very, very good summer where when Klay left after the second game, he really showed some flashes of carrying a team offensively. And also one thing, he’s not afraid of taking a big shot. Not at all. And that’s awfully impressive.

-Q: Don Nelson always said a great fastbreak is keyed by having four guys who can run the floor. When you’ve got Bogut and Lee, won’t that slow things down a little?

-JACKSON: No, I would argue that David Lee is a great runner. So I would say a great rebounder in Bogut and four guys that run above the average for their position. I would say we’re better fit to run and especially because we’re a better rebounding team. I think each gy rebounds their position well.

I would say running more and then I think when you have the weapons that we have offensively, the best way to attack the defense is when they’re not set. So we’re going to create open shots off of rebounding the basketball and pushing. And you can always push it with the purpose of pulling it out and running set offense.

But we’re not going to be a slow-down offensive team.

-Q: Don’t you want Bogut in the mix offensively?

-JACKSON: Absolutely. But I want to get stops and put pressure on the defense. That’s when we will be at our best. Bogut certainly gives us a weapon in the half-court, and also in secondary transition, when the ball is swung and he’s on the opposite block. You can certainly have the best of both worlds when that’s concerned.

-Q: Maybe not in the same role, but I hear Draymond Green was impressive in the summer. What do you see for his role?

-JACKSON: It will be interesting. I think we’re going to watch camp and get an understanding of the best way to use him, how much he will play, what will be his primary position. But he’s a guy that can play the 3, can play the 4, can handle the ball, can shoot the ball, can defend, can rebound. He’s a winner.

He’s just going to have to be a guy, pretty much like Dom, that had to stay ready and be ready and prepared to do the job whatever that job is.

But he’s a kid, another one, that stays in the gym, that works hard, that’s dedicated, has a great understanding of the game.

I can’t remember the last rookie I remember that I would say if he wants to, he’ll be a coach in this league. He’s been here from the beginning of the summer and if you sat him, had him diagram a play, a principle, a drill, he’d do it to a “T’. He’s an exceptionally smart young man and basketball player.

-Q: I’m not going to ask you to get into the details of the past blackmail situation [alleged blackmailing of Jackson, let me point out]. But you came into this job with some moral authority and just being a coach maybe means you need some of it. Do you think your position is weakened at all because of this?

-JACKSON: No. And my guys will answer that better. I think at the end of the day you show who you really are in the face of adversity. And you own it and you move forward. This is something seven years ago. I’ve been who I am for 47 years.

One owned mishap won’t define me. And anybody who wants to define with that, I’m fine with. But I’m going to keep it moving and I’m going to keep on being who God called me to be.

-Q: Have you addressed this with your players?

-JACKSON: Umm… no, that that I know of.

Q: Have you received support from them?

-JACKSON: These are my guys and they can tell you better than I can tell you. They know who I am and I’m awfully proud to be their coach. They can tell you how they feel about me as a coach. That’s not an issue and it never will be.

-Q: Is this investigation over? Is the process going on?

-JACKSON: The process is still going forward.

-Q: Is Carl Landry a guy who can play some center?

-JACKSON: I think like in the past, it depends on who you’re going against. I don’t want Carl Landry having to defend Dwight Howard. In an ideal world we would use our traditional 5s. But on a given night, if a team like Portland is starting J.J. Hickson and LaMarcus Aldridge, well, you can certainly play a David Lee and Carl Landry together.

And I will say about Biedrins, getting back to him, he’s a very very good defensive center. Defending the post. And he’s a very, very good defensive player defending pick-and-rolls. There’s no question about his ability to defend. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he came in and was exceptional in those areas. That’s who he is.

-Q: Where’s Ezeli’s offensive game right now?

-JACKSON: He’s gotten so much better. He was raw when we drafted him. But he’s in the gym every day with our coaches individual workouts and he’s putting the time in. Certainly a guy that demands position and can do something on the block.

Now he’s not going to get a steady diet of it today. We need him to rebound, block shots, protect the paint, set screens and finish at the rim. But he’s certainly a guy that can score on the block and feels more and more comfortable.

-Q: Do you compare him to Udoh at all?

-JACKSON: Different players. He’s a big guy. But I can see the similarities–blocking shots, pursuing the ball. But he’s a center. So I think that’s probably why it’s not a fair comparison. He has a presence running down the middle of the floor, getting in the paint. It’s a handful if you’re guarding him. Jeremy Tyler is well aware.

I think he would probably shove me if I compared him.

-Q: What kind of adjustments does Klay Thompson have to make this year?

-JACKSON: The league knows him. So they’re going to make adjustments. They’re going to gameplan for him. They’re going to try to beat him up.

He’s going to have to be better defensively, and he’s certainly working on that, because he’s going to have to guard… he’s guarding legit players as a premiere position. But it makes him better. Once again, when he looks at the other four guys on the floor with him, it’s awfully tough for a team… he was playing at the end of the year basically with David Lee and a makeshift group of players and they would put their best defender on Klay, they’d beat him up and if a screen was set, they’d trap him or they’d try to contest…

It’s a price to pay if you do that, because if you look at the floor, there’s four other guys that can score, can shoot and can play. So he’s going to enjoy some more freedom on the court and he’s going to make them better and they’re going to make him better.

Q: Bogut’s not a guy who parses his words at all. That have an impact so far?

-JACKSON: Yeah, he’s not going to bite his tongue. And that was from Day 1. I mean, if he saw something while he was riding the bike on the sideline, he’d yell it out. If he sees a guy…

One of my guys just yesterday, a move was made on him, big-time move, and guy dunks the ball, defender is on the ground like he got hit. Bogut is on the bike yelling, ‘Get up! Nothing happened to you! Get up!’

We needed that. And he’s a guy that certainly has a voice, the respect him, and he has a presence. So it’s good to see.

-Q: How confident are you that Curry and Bogut will be the players they once were and stay healthy?

-JACKSON: I hope so. My family certainly hopes so.

But it’s encouraging watching even though baby steps, that they’ve taken steps. And Steph has been cleared, because we stayed true to the process.

We’ve got to do the same exact thing with Bogut right now.

-Q: You mean Day 1 of the regular season, of camp, of the exhibition season?

-JACKSON: You can’t tell me what Shaq scored in his first preseason. You can’t even tell me whether they won it or not. That’s really not important–not to say it’s not important, but in the big picture, we need when we’re playing for real. And if he’s healthy come Tuesday, great. But we have to stay true to the process, what the doctors and the experts say…

-Q: What’s the Bogut timetable?

-JACKSON: He’s working out and he’s doing all the strength and conditioning with the trainer, with our coaches, and he’s getting closer and closer.

-Q: How is this team different than last year’s team?

JACKSON: This is a different team. I think this team is more talented, they know that they’re more talented. I don’t have to preach every day about working. We drafted three guys and added a fourth rookie and all they do is work. Charles Jenkins has never been a “rookie” when you talk about work.

Klay Thompson works. So the young guys are workers. Jeremy Tyler works. And then our veterans, with those guys it’s really been health. Really the one that’s been healthy is David. He’s looking great.

What I will say, from the day after Labor Day, these guys have been in the gym. I mean, that’s not normal. They’re embracing it. And that’s the difference. They’ve got a lot invested.

Spokesman Tim Frank said Thursday the league is finalizing procedures to deal with flopping, the art of falling down when little or no contact was made in an effort to trick referees into calling a foul.

Frank said the competition committee met two weeks ago and discussed plans that would go in place this season. Commissioner David Stern believes too many players are deceiving referees by flopping and has been seeking a way to properly penalize them.

My first complaint about the FO from Lacob on down, but especially Lacob and even the coaches, is that they haven’t talked like they know what they have in the players, what they are capable of. Part of the reason is, I suspect, that Lacob decided the team was wholly flawed, that it had to be taken apart and rebuilt, because he thought he had the right “answer” to fixing the team and his task was to fit the available players into this plan. He doesn’t. The other reason is that they just don’t know how to look at players or what they’re seeing on the floor.

Here is FB’s take of Curry in his very first game:

“Still, I loved what I saw from the rookie, on both ends of the court. He gave tremendous effort on Nash all night, and seemed preternaturally intelligent in his positioning. Nash didn’t have a great shooting night, and I credit Curry with that. The out-of-this-world 20 assists I lay at the doorstep of Curry’s teammates.

“On offense, I again thought he was spectacular. He played with poise and control, initiated the offense well, made a couple of beautiful dishes, but also showed something new: the deep jumper off the dribble. I can’t believe the talent I see in this kid.”

To laugh often and much;
to win the respect of the intelligent people
and the affection of children;
to earn the appreciation of honest critics
and endure the betrayal of false friends;
to appreciate beauty;
to find the best in others;
to leave the world a bit better
whether by a healthy child,
a garden patch, or a redeemed social condition;
to know that one life has breathed easier
because you lived here.
This is to have succeeded.

“Don’t waste your life in doubts and fears: spend yourself on the work before you, well assured that the right performance of this hour’s duties will be the best preparation for the hours or ages that follow it.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Some will like the league’s answer to flopping, and others will say it’s not enough. And while I recognize the benefit of taking it out of the referees’ hands, the new approach — if adopted — could open up a whole new can of worms in a sports environment that clearly does not tolerate officiating incompetence. Suppose LeBron James drives to the basket on the final possession of a playoff game, with the Miami Heat trailing by a point. He misses the shot, but dupes the official into calling a shooting foul by flopping. James sinks both free throws, the Heat win the game and advance to the next round. But what happens when the league fines James $25,000 the next morning for flopping on the play? What the league would be saying, essentially, is that James shouldn’t have been awarded free throws and the Heat shouldn’t have won. Chaos, would ensue, as it often does with these controversies — be it a disputed Hail Mary in the end zone or a superstar call late in an NBA game.

The NBA has been wrestling with this issue for years, and despite commissioner David Stern focusing his considerable angst upon it, smart minds have not been able to come up with a better remedy. Maybe that’s because there is none. Truth be told, given how far NBA officiating has come in the years since Donaghy, it’s remarkable that this is the only federal case on the docket.”

Chris Bosh accepts his new role as the center of the Heat, but will not bulk up to try to compromise his game, according to Ira Winderman of Sun Sentinel: “But he said Friday that while he has come to accept the role he avoided earlier in his career, he has no plans to bulk up. That something neither Bosh nor coach Erik Spoelstra want. ”I’ve talked with Spo and I asked what him what he wants from me and he said to play fast,” Bosh, listed at 6 feet 11, 235-pounds, said at media day, with training camp opening Saturday at AmericanAirlines Arena. “You can’t play fast and add pounds. It just doesn’t make any sense for me.”

In the same Winderman article, you will also find the status of Ray Allen’s ankle, which is still sore: “Ray Allen, the Heat’s prime free-agent acquisition, said even with offseason ankle surgery he still enters training camp with soreness. ”I think I have to pay attention to the swelling. There’s a minimal amount of swelling in my ankle, which is very good, compared to what I thought it would be,” he said. Asked if he believed he could reach a point of playing pain free this season, he answered, “Who knows? That’s a good question.”

While we’re sitting on our hands, a side note on the 49’s, somewhat related to a running theme on this blog. I’m surprised they haven’t shown more offense, especially passing, now that they have more receivers. The Minnesota game was something of a concern. Not many teams will be as easy to contain on defense as the Jets.

I think Harbaugh’s answer to this concern is analogous to a story I once heard about Milton Berle, who was legendary in Hollywood for the size of his manly member. At a party, he was challenged by a young star to a … face off. After getting some money down, the men repaired to a back bedroom, where the kid dropped trou. Berle took one look, and said: “Kid, I’m going to pull out just enough to win this bet.”

“The NBA has announced anti-flopping rules that will fine repeat offenders. The league said Wednesday that flopping will be defined ‘as any physical act that appears to have been intended to cause the referees to call a foul on another player.’ Players will get a warning the first time, then be fined $5,000 the second time. The fines increase to $30,000 for a fifth offense.”

Fines are ridiculous and probably unenforceable. Just don’t let players get away with them. The only reason players flop is because refs get sucked in.

“The suggestion that the Timberwolves’ will be fighting for an eighth seed in the playoffs this year is, barring injury, frankly laughable. As I have written before, this team could win 57 games and if they don’t win 50 it will be a massive disappointment.”

“If only ankles weren’t so important to the game of basketball.”
“Bogut’s probably going to miss at least a couple of games at the start of the season.” (Calling all Warriors shills! Come in, shills!)
“[Bogut’s a great defensive player], but ON THE COURT is the key phrase again.”

But more than anything he prides himself as a teacher. He’s currently working with No. 2 overall draft pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on correcting what he feels is a hitch in his jump shot.

“We’ve tried to smooth that out…. You take things away. With his grip. You cock his wrist so he doesn’t roll his wrists,” Dunlap said.

He’s also worked with guard Kemba Walker on his shot and finishing ability around the rim. Walker said he’s seen immense improvement.

“He’s just a great teacher,” Walker said. “And he’s really intense. He wants guys to play hard. He doesn’t care about a lot of other things, but playing hard is really, really key for him. He expects a lot from us so I think that’s why he acts the way he does.”

Dunlap intrigues me because he’s a young under-the-radar coach with experience and possible potential, i.e. the kind of coach the Warriors could have considered two years ago. A two year experiment with him would have cost the team nothing, and there might have been real player growth, possibly a winner.

I have the feeling, however, he’s not the kind of guy who takes orders from above.

If it happens, I’m curious how much the decision is Jackson’s. West, as I recall, was high on Rush but not Barnes. I also wonder what the decision might be based on—a couple of practices? Certainly not what we saw in summer league or in college last years.

From TK’s column:

“JACKSON: He’s a guy that has… he’s not a shooter, he’s a scorer. He’s a guy that can put the ball on the floor, can attack, has great confidence, competes defensively–although on this level you’ve got to learn how to play defense.”

“If only ankles weren’t so important to the game of basketball.”
“Bogut’s probably going to miss at least a couple of games at the start of the season.” (Calling all Warriors shills! Come in, shills!)
“[Bogut’s a great defensive player], but ON THE COURT is the key phrase again.”

Hollinger? You mean THE John Hollinger, one of your most beloved NBA “experts”? >>>>>>>>>

Posted on December 5, 2010 by feltbot| 45 Comments

The newly big Warriors were thrashed by small ball in this game. If you don’t know already that the Thunder are a quintessential small ball team, let me explain. Forget about Nenad Krstic at center. Many of Nellie’s best teams had non-scoring defensive anchors at center. Andris Biedrins, for one. Shawn Bradley for another, who came within a Nowitzki knee injury in game 3 of the 2003 Conference Finals of winning a title. (Can you imagine the consternation of snake-oil salesmen like John Hollinger and Dave Berri if Shawn Bradley had won a title?)

———————————————–

“We were told that one of the duties of Warriors’ “Director of Basketball Operations” Kirk Lacob will be statistical analysis. He’s a budding John Hollinger, and we can now safely assume that he will be kept busy counting rebounds, and dividing them by minutes played . (Don’t bother taking into account the difference in energy expenditure between 38 minute players and 15 minute players, and don’t bother charting the competition they match up against. Not important.)

God help us.”

Dr. Feltenstein, I love how you’ve “trashed” Hollinger here on numerous occasions in the past only to now give the guy some cred with your multiple quotes of his red flag comments on Bogut. LOL

So, if Bogut misses, say, the first 2 games of the season, but winds up playing in 75 of their remaining 80 games and averages 25-30 minutes a game, are you appearing at the end of the season, thumping your chest and shouting for all to hear, “I TOLD YOU HE WOULDN’T BE READY FOR THE START OF THE SEASON!”?

As far as I’m concerned you’re 0 for 1 thus far. You declared Bogut wouldn’t be ready for the start of training camp and unless the Warriors signed an undrafted FA who’s white, bearded and 7 ft tall I’d swear that was ABogut in uniform, doing some running, taking right and left handed hook shots while being guarded by one of the coaches, and generally working up a pretty good sweat in a couple of those videos I posted here yesterday. Will he be playing Sunday night in Fresno? Obviously not. But facts are he’s participating in camp while sticking to a predetermined regimen that’s aimed at getting him ready slowly but surely, and for when the games start counting in the standings.

The only disturbing news to this point is intimation of John Hollinger competence from Dr. Feltenstein. LOL

And more to that point on Bogut and training camp from the TK interview……..

“Andrew Bogut looked quite spry doing about 45 minutes of individual work after practice, including some of the first dunking since he broke his ankle last season.

He ended one running drill by dunking twice one-handed and then throwing down a two-handed reverse slam at the conclusion. I note this because I asked him a couple weeks ago if he’d started dunking yet and he said that the explosive work was yet to come.

Well, it’s here, and Bogut seemed fine doing it. Afterwards, he said he wanted me to keep the dunks quiet, but oops, I’d already Tweeted out the info, so oops. And now I’ve put it in a blog headline.

Summary: Bogut looked a lot closer to full action than I expected this early in the preseason. Obviously there could be setbacks at any time and the Warriors are going to be cautious, cautious, cautious–which might keep him away from 5 on 5 action for quite some time.

But if you plotted out a track that would get Bogut ready for the Oct. 31 opener, I’d say today was a good indication that he’s on it. So far.”

“As for your opinion that Bogut is participating in the Warriors training camp, I have no words.”

Felt, this is all really pretty simple. There’s no way in all hellfire that Andrew Bogut can play in Game 1, or 2, or 3 (the first week) of the 2012-13 regular season without first “participating in training camp”, and this has nothing to do with any “opinions”, it’s simple fact.

I’m not making any predictions, (more like holding my breath while crossing all fingers and toes) BUT, if Bogut is playing that first week of the season it’s damn sure because he first had a training camp to prepare for the rigors of meaningful NBA games.

One thing Lacob did exceptionally well from the start was butter up TK. Gave him every big exclusive interview, unprecedented access. And it worked just like you might have expected it to on an utterly corrupt journalist.

“Only one thing could make Jackson’s professional life better: An extension of his contract, worth $10 million in its final season.

“I want it, but I can’t control it,” Jackson said, toweling sweat off his face after Tuesday’s practice. “Every day when I walk in here I’m hoping they’ll call me in and say, ‘Jack, here’s your extension.’

“I think I deserve it, but at the end of the day I’m still happy to be here and all I can worry about is what I can control, and that’s my play.”

He should not be surprised the call hasn’t come. When he returned to the Spurs last season in a mid-March in a trade that sent Richard Jefferson to Golden State, coach and president of basketball operations Gregg Popovich alerted him an extension was not in the offing.”

I wish this guy well but Houston was crazy for drafting someone with a problem like this. So is he taking the bus to Toronto? NYC? Portland? Or does he stay in Houston and rejoin the team when they get back from longer trips? Unless he somehow gets over this problem he won’t be in the NBA for long.

“Andrew Bogut says ‘things have to change’ in Golden State, up to and including fights and scary facial hair”

“It appears that Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut, whom we didn’t see in the Olympics because of his broken ankle or the playoffs because he plays for the Warriors, has spent his offseason foraging through the woods for grub and venison and growing protection from his face so as to stave off the oncoming chill of winter.

Grew a beard, decided to look scary, freaked us all out on Media Day. And, after one of his first healthy practices as a member of the Warriors, Bogut decided to amp up the verbal intensity as GSW’s biggest and baddest dude.” (What? You mean someone else thinks that Bogut is “participating in training camp”?)

I guess MT didn’t get your memo that 40 minutes of solitary drills with a trainer = training camp.

I’m rooting for Bogut (something you don’t seem able to comprehend or credit), but there’s only one person in the world now who doesn’t believe he is missing most and possibly all of training camp. It is a virtual guarantee at this point that he will start the season unfamiliar with his teammates and out of true basketball shape. No matter how well conditioned he is, the only way to get in basketball shape is to actually play the game, running the floor and banging. It’s also the only true test of the health of his ankle.

On a cheerier note, I will be courtside for the Warriors’ preseason game with the Lakers’ on Monday night. This will be my first look at the Warriors rookies in actual NBA competition, so you can expect a report completely absent of abstruse medical terms.

I will be courtside for the Warriors’ preseason game with the Lakers’ on Monday night.

Wait, what? Preseason is already upon us?! YES!
Felt, why does my schedule state @Lakers Sunday but Vs. Utah on Monday? Either way I’m thrilled. Any of these games on TV anywhere? What about the interweb?

you can expect a report completely absent of abstruse medical terms.

What I will expect is a new thread. Even though I recently got a new computer, the long threads here continue to slow down my speed. Odd I tell you…

Brytex and rgg, tomorrow night’s game is being televised by the Lakers so the satellite feed will be available it’s just a matter of finding a site that will have the link to it. I asked this question earlier today over on AL’s blog and one of the posters came up with this link http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/basketball.html

I notice it has a link for tonight’s game between Denver and the Clippers. I have no idea how safe this site is and I’ll be the first to admit to being a complete wuss when it comes to clicking links on a site like this. If anyone wants to try this and report back feel free, by all means. I’m sure the Warriors game will be on there come tomorrow night.

Now, how about you taking your new computer and trying out one of those links on Sunday’s game? If you don’t get bombarded with every computer virus known to hacker-mankind report back and give us the all-clear sign. Sound like a plan? LOL

Brytex @ 105. My mistake, I’m going Monday so it must be Utah. Which is actually a better game to watch, in my opinion. I want to watch Ezeli play ball against some serious big boys, which he’ll get from Utah (Jefferson, Favors, Kanter) but not from the Lakers (I’m guessing Howard will be held out).

As for the new thread, it’s already in the works. I’m kicking this sore-ankled, out of shape blog into basketball mode.

I guess MT didn’t get your memo that 40 minutes of solitary drills with a trainer = training camp.

I’m rooting for Bogut (something you don’t seem able to comprehend or credit), but there’s only one person in the world now who doesn’t believe he is missing most and possibly all of training camp. It is a virtual guarantee at this point that he will start the season unfamiliar with his teammates and out of true basketball shape. No matter how well conditioned he is, the only way to get in basketball shape is to actually play the game, running the floor and banging. It’s also the only true test of the health of his ankle.

And this is the best case scenario.

Wake me up when he’s cleared for five on five contact.

——————————————–

Good morning, Mr. Felt. Your mission, Felt, should you decide to accept it, is to approach Andrew Bogut Monday night and ask him when he’s going to get his lazy ass going and start participating in training camp. As always, should you be caught or killed (a real possibility here), the other members of Feltbot’s Blog will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This blog will self-destruct after five preseason games when Bogut starts playing. Good luck, Felt.

Just wanted to make sure my post would go through. I tried posting at halftime but for some reason the posts weren’t appearing.

I watched almost the entire game. It took me about half of the first quarter before I found a safe site that showed the game.

The Lakers starters only played the first half which ended 56-49 Lakers. Still, the Warriors looked pretty good, both on D and offensively. The Lakers were hot shooting the ball for awhile but everything changed in the second half.

The Warriors outscored LA 37-10 in the 3rd qtr and eventually led by as many as 31, and everyone looked very good for GSW. You could see these guys have been working their butts off the last month or so as Jackson played Lee, Rush, Klay, Jack, etc most of qtr 3. The Dubs had 46 pts in the paint and I believe outscored LA at one point 33-0 from the 3rd into the early 4th qtr.

Even though the blowout started once Kobe, Gasol, Nash and the like were finished playing this meaningless preseason game, tonight still showed the weakness of LA vs the strength of the “new” Warriors, and that’s depth.

LA’s bench ain’t all that impressive while the Warriors keep bringing guys off their bench who can play and play well, which is really why this game, as the LA announcers stated, became “embarrassingly” one-sided in the second half.

No Curry tonight. I imagine he plays Monday night against Utah.

Bogut was in uniform and on the bench throughout, and the one shot of him up close showed him barking at someone out on the court. Even when he’s not playing you can see how he’ll help change the mentality and toughness of this team.

The Warriors are back in action and it was great to watch the team get after it. Now, just get and stay healthy!

It took me about half of the first quarter before I found a safe site that showed the game.

And which site was that? I tried one of those links (as promised) and started the process to get the video feed (I could already hear the sound). But after like the third box came up, this one asking if I would ‘let this program make changes to my computer’, I got cold feet. Had to just watch the live box score instead.

Brytex, you’re lucky you stopped when you did. I assume the site you tried was the first link I posted which I got from a blogger at AL’s site, “Front Row”? I tried that out first and after hitting the initial game link my computer screen lit up with a warning window from the extra malware firewall I have. Not good and I got out of there pronto.

Same thing happend when I tried yet another AL-blogger recommended site (the hell with those guys LOL) so I was down to my last option, the second link I posted the other night (www.frombar.tv).

Everything worked great and the site was nice and clean without all those crazy ads and popups. They supplied 2 links for the game. The first wasn’t very good with poor, choppy video. But the second link was great, with a good video stream and clear audio. And the game window opened browser-addressed (I use Internet Explorer 9). The one thing to remember is that after clicking on the initial game link don’t click on anything else afterwards. You’ll see a few icons and a phony plug-in ad, but don’t touch those. It takes 30-40 seconds for the video to start streaming. I’d go ahead and try that site out next time you feel like watching some NBA hoops. I’m sure there’ll be a few more Warriors preseason games available there although their next game with Utah isn’t being televised by either team so no feed.

Brytex, you’re lucky you stopped when you did. I assume the site you tried was the first link I posted which I got from a blogger at AL’s site, “Front Row”? I tried that out first and after hitting the initial game link my computer screen lit up with a warning window from the extra malware firewall I have. Not good and I got out of there pronto.

Same thing happend when I tried yet another AL-blogger recommended site (the hell with those guys LOL) so I was down to my last option, the second link I posted the other night (see post #105).

Everything worked great and the site was nice and clean without all those crazy ads and popups. They supplied 2 links for the game. The first wasn’t very good with poor, choppy video. But the second link was great, with a good video stream and clear audio. And the game window opened browser-addressed (I use Internet Explorer 9). The one thing to remember is that after clicking on the initial game link don’t click on anything else afterwards. You’ll see a few icons and a phony plug-in ad, but don’t touch those. It takes 30-40 seconds for the video to start streaming.

I’d go ahead and try that site out next time you feel like watching some NBA hoops. I’m sure there’ll be a few more Warriors preseason games available there although their next game with Utah isn’t being televised by either team so no feed.

“The Golden State Warriors didn’t surprise me – I have them 8th in the West to start the season and I see a team that can score, score, score. They will have plenty of games where leave the 1st quarter down but head into the half up. Klay Thompson can SHOOT – Ezeli a nice get as a backup behind Bogut. They just need Bogut to stay healthy. Of course Steph Curry and Bogut both are vital to this whole thing. David Lee will have a strong year next to Bogut. Harrison Barnes = solid. Then there’s Landry – Jefferson – Jack, etc. The Warriors have a ton of potential and if healthy . . . they’ll realize it.”

The link I had for the first half was really bad, almost unwatchable, but the Warriors looked really bad then both ends of the court, especially the 1st Q, when the Laker starters were in and were hitting on all cylinders.

They’re showing a live feed of NBA TV which isn’t televising any games tonight. Utah isn’t televising the game so I was surprised to see the game linked for viewing. It’s radio only tonight followed by a report from our on-court correspondent, Dr. Feltenstein.

(Only KThompson played 30+ minutes so for the most part time was doled out in reasonable fashion for the remaining players for preseason game #2 but I disagree with bringing back “starters” late in the 4th qtr in an attempt to secure a win in a preseason game. Teams win in the regular season because of their talent level, not because of their preseason record. If they blow a 4th qtr lead with bench players #11-15 playing? Meaningful? Big deal? C’mon. I didn’t listen to any of the game so I’m just commenting given Jackson’s answer to Steinmetz’s postgame question.)

(How he bounces back will be important, to say the least. Regardless, I think the Warriors would be crazy signing Curry to an extension before the season begins. If he makes it through 82 games healthy THEN you give him the big bucks.)

“What I will expect is a new thread. Even though I recently got a new computer, the long threads here continue to slow down my speed. Odd I tell you…”

I have a question concerning your “speed” and how you’re getting to the latest posts. After you get to Felt’s homepage do you then click “continue reading”, or where the numerical number of posts on the current thread is displayed, or do you go to the small area (right side of page) that says “recent comments” and click on the top post listed there?

Your answer should be option 3, “recent comments”. It took me literally all of 5 seconds to go from homepage to comment #200 on this visit, and my computer is 3 years old. There should be no “speed issues” for you, especially with a new ‘puter, if you’re clicking where you should be clicking. :)