Thank you for responding to this Weblog (blog). We wish to maintain a high level of integrity and responsibility among our participants.
In the spirit of camaraderie of the blogsphere, interested parties are welcomed to reproduce or quote materials published in this weblog WITH THE CONDITION that they are credited to akadirjasin.blogspot.com/akadirjasin.com to avoid misunderstanding.Thank you.

A Directory of Blogs & Websites on Society, Politics, and Economy of Malaysia.

Visitors

Followers

Friday, November 07, 2008

Did Najib and Anwar Miss the Opportunity?

A kadir Jasin

[ANONYMOUS comments with not be entertained. When commenting, your real identity is preferred. But a suitable pseudonym is accepted. If you have to use anonymous, please print your name or pen name at the bottom of your message. Please avoid seditious, defamatory and libelous statements. Unrelated comments will not be given priority.]

THEGOVERNMENT’S RM7-billion economic stimulus package presented to the Parliament on Nov. 4 could work. To put it more bluntly, it has to work for the sake of all of us.

The “could work” rating came from a former Finance Minister and the rest came from me. At last the government came to its senses and acknowledged that its earlier bravado, claiming the economy was strong, amounted to falsehood when the entire world economy is, literally, hanging in the balance.

In spite of the additional RM7-billion “expenditure”, Mohd Najib had to pare the economic growth down to a mere 3.5 per cent next year against the current year’s projection of five per cent and the inflation rate of 4-5 per cent. The latter can only be a crude measure as the real inflation is reckoned to be very much higher. But there’s a good chance that inflation will moderate when demands fall.

Mohd Najib has to be congratulated for his maiden effort although he clearly overlooked a few fundamental points that require further explanations before he could hope to fully convince those who hold the key to the commerce and investment that he is on the ball.

The objection of the opposition MPs, which led to their temporary boycott of the session, was not baseless. It would appear that Finance Minister had presented a “budget-within-the budget” instead of merely rounding-up and winding-up the original budget proposals presented by Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in August.

He could have been wrongly advised or was running for time. The reasonable thing to do, according to some independent sources, was to allow for Abdullah’s original budget to be debated and voted upon. Only then Mohd Najib should come in to present a supplementary budget that specifically addressed the global economic and financial crises.

Maybe Mohd Najib had deliberately not wanted to present a separate supplementary budget for fear that it would offend Abdullah. But by not doing so, he could have “breached” the rules and rendered the 2009 Budget “questionable” from the procedural point of view.

But more importantly, he could have missed the opportunity to put his seal on the stimulus package. Maybe he’s not in a hurry to do that or he’s still afraid that Abdullah and his boys could still pull the rug from under his feet despite having won the Umno President post uncontested.

But Mohd Najib was not alone in not seizing the moment. The Opposition Leader, Anwar Ibrahim, too appeared to have allowed a golden opportunity to slip by.

Instead of staging a walkout, he could have used the debate to force a no-confidence motion against the government and settle once and for all his claim that he has enough support to topple the government.

Since the government does not seem to be in the mood to listen to his advice, he should just push ahead with his takeover plan. After all there is a motion to that effect in the House.

Mohd Najib and his advisers should bear in mind that what really matters is not the ringgit and sen but the confidence of the producers and consumers. Putting back the money in the consumers’ hand by way of lower EPF contributions will only help to generate demand if they have the confidence to spend and if the higher purchasing power is not eaten away by inflation.

The workers are given the option to reduce their monthly contributions by three per cent for two years beginning next January. If every single EPF contributor takes advantage of the reduction, there will be extra an extra RM4.8-billion purchasing power for the economy.

The move will also ease the burden of the EPF. The national pension fund has been plagued with overflowing coffers but insufficient investment opportunities. Given the gravity of the matter, another more suitable occasion should be set aside to discuss the EPF investments. With lower growth forecast, the problem of excess funds and lower return will continue bother the EPF.

I urge Mohd Najib to be mindful when dealing with the property market. Our property market has become too speculative that it forces the genuine house buyers and traders out.

It’s good to promote the construction and ownership of low- and medium-cost housing units because of the positive spillover effects. The problem in the last few years was speculation that forced prices of these units beyond the financial capability of many genuine buyers and, therefore, many were left unsold.

The government should consider some tough fiscal measures to curb speculation, bring down prices and make it easier for genuine buyers to borrow. More capital, labour and materials should be allocated to public works and amenities as were the case during the 1997/98 crises.

Mohd Najib and his team will have to watch closely the effects of China’s stimulus package introduced last month and the US President-Elect Barack Obama’s package after his Jan. 20 inauguration.

The Chinese government had rolled out a string of policy stimulus last month after the latest data shows a continued slowdown of economic growth which included a sweeping export tax rebate hike and a new state infrastructure plan that were designed to prop up export and investment growth.

During the election campaign, Obama had called for about $175 billion in new stimulus spending, including money for roads, bridges and aid to hard-pressed states. He wants a rebate of $500 for individuals, $1,000 for families and a new $3,000 tax credit for businesses for each new job created.

But Mohd Najib must acknowledge that money and programmes alone will not guarantee success of this crisis management. The failure of so many public policies and projects in recent decades is due to poor supervision and monitoring. The ICU-type supervision and monitoring should not only be brought back but strengthened.

By this I mean Mohd Najib himself has to monitor the implementation of the package if he wants it to succeed. Unless he is absolutely on the ball, time and bureaucratic impediments will work against him.

Last but not least, Mohd Najib must start to identify his economic management team and gives up the finance portfolio at the earliest possible date once he assumes the post of Prime Minister, God-willing, in Mac. I had said this with Abdullah and I am saving it again with Mohd Najib. The PM should not hold the finance post.

Eurocopter: How Not To Handle Controversy1. Hanky panky was suspected (alleged) in the award of contract for the purchase of 12 Cougar EC725 helicopters for RM2.3 billion from Eurocopter for the Air Force;

2. Doubt was cast on the tender process of the Defence Ministry. Mohd Najib was one of the targets;

3. Abdullah became the Defence Minister and postponed the purchase on the pretext of economic downturn;

4. The multi-party Public Account Committee of the Parliament found no wrongdoings in the award of the contract;

5. Why is it so difficult for the Government to reveal the identity of the agents involved in the procurement?;

6. Is it Kamaluddin Abdullah and/or Scomi, Khairy Jamaluddin or a member of the Perlis royal household as was widely rumored? If they are not involved, clear their names;

7. Do we wait for an Altantuya-type trial before the identity of a commission agent is made public?;

8. If the identities of the recipients of privatised projects during the so-called “closed” Mahathir era were revealed and published by the government on the Internet, why should the identities of the beneficiaries of the Eurocopter deal be kept a secret?;

9. Is the privacy of commission agents more important than the credibility and integrity of the government?;

10. Is the privacy of the commission agents more important than the lives and limbs of the RMAF personnel?; and

11. I think Mohd Najib and his handlers should start managing information more professionally – minus the spins that spun the otherwise simple Abdullah into an unrecognisable entity. Stop being defensive and apologetic.

29 comments:

For the sake of discussion, here listed the additional economic package complementing the 2009 budget presented by Najib in Parlimen as per StarOnline dated 4th November 2009, titled ECONOMIC PACKAGE UNVEILED

Among the measures Najib announced were:

1) RM1.2bil to be allocated to build more low- and medium-cost houses;

2) Abolishing the 5% import duties on fertilisers, cement and steel;

3) Allowing hypermarkets to close late (weekdays 11pm; weekends 1am);

4) RM500mil for the maintenance of police stations and quarters, as well as Army camps;

5) RM200mil for Chinese, Tamil, religious and mission schools;

6) RM200mil for pre-school education; and

7) Employees can reduce their EPF contributions by 3% on a voluntary basis for up to two years.

The same article also has the full speech text in Bahasa Malaysia in relative to the presentation by Najib.

Dato',

You said "THE GOVERNMENT’S RM7-billion economic stimulus package presented to the Parliament on Nov. 4 could work."

and

"The “could work” rating came from a former Finance Minister and the rest came from me."

I do not see how these packages can stimulate the economy. Please share your thoughts on this.

Assalamualaikum...The author will make this comment a brief one. Neither two of them miss any opportunity. As for Najib, he shall need to form his economic think tank a.s.a.p. And for Anwar, well if he thought the voters vote him to get out from the Parliment then be my guess... Wassalam.

What a shame!!! Najib was not behaving like a true statesman during his budget presentation. He missed the opportunity to convince the other side of the aisle of his honesty and sincerity as future PM of Malaysia. He was arrogant that befit the Malay proverb "Bodoh Sombong". And it was true that he failed to understand basic terminology in budgetary where he mislead his argument on the issue of expansionary and contractionary budget. It arose some doubts of his competency in managing Malaysia economy.Anwar put it right by saying Najib is incompetence. Najib should learn as President-elect of the USA in his victory speech rightly said " I will listen to all of you especially when we disagree".As for Anwar taking the opportunity, as right thinking Malaysian, now is not the time, surely Dato', the priority is to move the economy and to avoid economic disaster that will make the rakyat suffer. What vote of no confident you are suggesting here? A very naughty and irresponsible idea so to speak with no malaise. The Eurocopter deal is a real blunder. The truth is not really known. The chairman of PAC should have taken the opportunity to unravel the hidden agenda but he chose to play politic. There are real issues and not merely perception. There are people out there who know what is going on. The government can keep on trying, but it is a clear indication of lacking professionalism and below par leadership both within the politicians and the leaders running the organization. Can we thrust them in the defense of this nation?The damage was done and the damage control was bad. So let us echo the Obama tag line "Change, yes we can".dh9753

Datuk,Well said. Najib is not inspiring confidence and the lack of information is not helping. Plus his ( and his team's) tendency to brush aside any comments that is not in line as another anti-Najib propoganda. He finally acknowledge that there is impact to our economy after consistent denial which irritates even the tukang buang sampah.

You are the first to acknowledge the mistake in the parliamentary procedure that Najib took and must congratulate you. MSM kept quiet in this. I agree that it is confusing. In fact, EPF can be sued for making the 3% deduction automatic since

1) The budget discussed was AAB's, not the Rm7 billion supplemantary. Hence, the 3% reduction is not approved.2) Like any new labour contract, EPF should ask permission to deduct and not automatic. It is now the onus of the contributer to continue giving 11%.

I am aghast to the my last exclaimation mark to infere that there should be such matter as6. Is it Kamaluddin Abdullah and/or Scomi, Khairy Jamaluddin or a member of the Perlis royal household as was widely rumored? If they are not involved, clear their names;

7. Do we wait for an Altantuya-type trial before the identity of a commission agent is made public?; after all these times I would have it that you had it all cleared with both AGs with this seductive and errorneous errectilous e-bola! infectous info.

What ever the case will be, and maybe as sister mary spaketh, whenever they - anyone or anybody that really matters should want to do a cut-up of che det kita, he will be found very very clean. The mamaks and the malabaris will gladly testified to that. Alhamdulillah.

On the small matter of a pendekar and a house, i wounder how the revised figures could justify his ruling.

I wonder who got who by the balls, Scribe. Who shall sit in the Majlis Presiden, Scribe, what with all your sources. Would Anwar be missed? is a bonus nobrainner.

Terima Kasih

ps. imagine where he got all the facts, figures and bluff and imagine the scribe putting his hands into a bag that is wriggling alive! Wonder if syed hamid pekak - no he is not deaf - is up to it. You are charming and so is that singing nib of yours and Pete got his habeas corpus. Alhamdulillah

You are right by saying Najib should have allowed the debate and vote on the Abdullah budget, before presenting his supplementary economic package. He could have many reasons :

1. The economy is really down and announcing new package will as instant stimulus, hopefully.

2. Time to impress Abdullah and Anwar, or time is critical in view of global meltdown

3. If it takes 6 hours for Anwar to bla, bla, bla the first time, this sitting will be no different.It will be a long and helter skelter parliment sitting.

4. Najib hopes by Mac when he takes over as PM, the economy is on track.

The missed opportunity by Anwar is also purposeful. Anwar would not want to call for vote of no confidence because :

1. He does not have the numbers and will be defeated. Malu besar.The invisibility will be tarnished.

2. In current global economic turmoil Anwar would not know what to do. He is afraid to take command. For that matter, his American masters would have advised him to do Mahathir economics, as they are doing. Malu besar.

As for the EUROCOPTER deal, 4 members of the PR who sit in PAC are in agreement that everything is above board. The DAP is represented by a senior and veteran party strongman.

Dato, please check the status of public debt in our country. I understand, as a percentage of GDP(national income, it is 50%,compared to Thailand's 38 per cent of GDP. Our projected fiscal deficit is 4.8% of GDP (I do not believe this figure)compared to Thailand's 2.5 percent. The stimulus package will worsen the situation. The reality is our fiscal position is very precarious.Obviously, you are very optimistic. I have lost confidence in the government's capacity to competently manage the economy.---Din Merican

The currency traded near a one-week low as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares slumped 6%, snapping a three-day gain. US shares tumbled yesterday after reports showed the job market and service industries weakened by more than economists expected.

“Markets are pricing in a recession next year,” said Ang Kok Heng, who manages US$156 million (RM549.12 million) as chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management in Kuala Lumpur. “There’s a tactical shift out of non-US dollar assets.”

The ringgit fell 0.4% to 3.5392 per dollar as of 4.40pm in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency may reach 3.55 by year-end, according to the median forecast of 20 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Malaysia cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 5% from 5.7%, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said in parliament on Tuesday. Growth will ease to 3.5% in 2009, versus a previous target of 5.4%.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index dropped 2.4%, taking this year’s loss to 38%. The index is poised for its worst year since the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Global investors pulled a record RM19.1 billion from the local bond market in August, according to the latest central bank statistics.

Malaysia’s three-year government notes advanced for a second day, pushing the yield down to the lowest level in two weeks.

The yield on the 3.833% bond due in September 2011 fell three basis points to 3.72%, according to Bursa Malaysia Bhd. The price rose 0.065, or 65 sen per RM1,000 face amount, to 100.295.

Malaysia plans to reopen sales of existing three- and five-year benchmark securities this month to help fund the budget deficit, according to its sale calendar. The size and date of offerings haven’t been disclosed. — Bloomberg

Nota:

Please, Scribe, could you ask C.H.E. Det how would one go about bankrupting a county like Malaysia and how long would it take to do it under present economic situation? all probable ways, Tun...

For the sake of the rakyat, DSNR and DSAI, please do not politicise the good intentions for the rakyat. Please act and behave as a good manager and above all, work as a team to the rakyat or else... we will manage the both of you.

I believe Najib should set up a special task force to monitor our economy, maybe similar to the Economic Crisis Management Team (ECMT) in South Korea, Saudi, South Africa, Romania and Spain recently. It will augur well in identifying adverse elements that could weaken economic growth and halting the inflows of FDIs.

Did Najib Miss The Opportunity? I said yes.He miss the opportunity to nominated Tan Sri Mahayuddin as Deputy President when Pekan Div Met Yesterday.Mahayuddin and his supporter were very upset.They dont know whather to trust Najib.This will split the UMNO party wide open.

If Najib is smart and firm he just tell Ali Rustam and Mat Tysonthat he want Mahayuddin to be his deputy.He know and Mahayuddin Know that Dollah is backing Ali Rustam.I know he personally call some of the Div head.Ask Pak Sulaiman Randas or Rashid Abdullah.

1. Hanky panky was suspected (alleged) in the award of contract for the purchase of 12 Cougar EC725 helicopters for RM2.3 billion from Eurocopter for the Air Force;

2. Doubt was cast on the tender process of the Defence Ministry. Mohd Najib was one of the targets;

3. Abdullah became the Defence Minister and postponed the purchase on the pretext of economic downturn;

4. The multi-party Public Account Committee of the Parliament found no wrongdoings in the award of the contract;

5. Why is it so difficult for the Government to reveal the identity of the agents involved in the procurement?;

6. Is it Kamaluddin Abdullah and/or Scomi, Khairy Jamaluddin or a member of the Perlis royal household as was widely rumored? If they are not involved, clear their names;

7. Do we wait for an Altantuya-type trial before the identity of a commission agent is made public?;

8. If the identities of the recipients of privatised projects during the so-called “closed” Mahathir era were revealed and published by the government on the Internet, why should the identities of the beneficiaries of the Eurocopter deal be kept a secret?;

9. Is the privacy of commission agents more important than the credibility and integrity of the government?;

10. Is the privacy of the commission agents more important than the lives and limbs of the RMAF personnel?

About Me

I was born in 1947 in Kedah. I came from a rice farming family. I have been a journalist since 1969. I am the Editor-in-Chief of magazine publishing company, Berita Publishing Sdn Bhd. I was Group Editor NST Sdn Bhd and Group Editor-in-Chief of NSTP Bhd between 1988 and 2000. I write fortnightly column “Other Thots” in the Malaysian Business magazine, Kunta Kinte Original in Berita Harian and A Kadir Jasin Bercerita in Dewan Masyarakat. Books: Biar Putih Tulang (1998), Other Thots – Opinions & Observations 1992-2001 (2001), The Wings of an Eagle (2003), Mencari Dugalia Huso (2006), Damned That Thots (2006), Blogger (2006), PRU 2008-Rakyat Sahut Cabaran (2008), Komedi & Tragedi-Latest in Contemporary Malaysian Politics (2009) and Membangun Bangsa dengan Pena (2009).