Dodgers News: Manager Dave Roberts Addresses Media at Winter Meetings

Dodgers manager, Dave Roberts, spoke out to the media at Major League Baseball’s winter meetings on Tuesday, but the Los Angeles Dodgers are still waiting for the right players. There are many updated rumors, however, there are not many closed deals.

The Los Angeles Dodgers first deal was re-signing starting pitcher Rich Hill to a 3-year, $48 million contract on Monday. The Dodgers are hoping to re-sign one or both of the team’s favorite free agents; Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen. It has been a slow off-season so far and winter meetings end on Thursday.

Roberts was involved with the San Diego Padres, another NL West team, and knows what the other teams in their division have to offer. As the NL Manager of the Year, Roberts will have to prove himself for the 2017 season.

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I cannot see the Dodgers paying $80M+ for Kenley Jansen. So they will have no proven closer. If they do not re-sign Joe Blanton they lose 80IP with 2.48 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. The Dodgers have no alternative other than Rob Segedin or Kike’ Hernandez at 3B, so they need to re-sign JT. If the market is 5 years $85M (which is hard to believe), then I would structure it as $12M/$16M/$18M/$18M/$18M and $2m signing bonus. Amortizing the $2M over the 5 years, that would make the 2017 luxury tax cap at $12.6M. They lose Ethier and Crawford after 2017 so the 2018 increase is easy, and then lose AGon after 2018 so 2019-2021 would be bearable as well.

If they do not re-sign JT, I have no idea why they would have signed Rich Hill. They could have used De Leon/Stripling/Stewart/Kazmir/McCarthy/Wood/Ryu as the 4th and 5th starter, and added no salary for luxury tax. They would lose 27 HR/90 RBI, 47 saves (with huge K and minimal BB), and a solid multi inning setup reliever. They have no 2B, no RH bat other than Puig (who the big news from the Dodgers today was that Puig is on a plan to lose weight). Of course there is Trayce Thompson and the SVS/Ruf clone and the aforementioned Segedin/Hernandez. I am sure that MadBum and Moore will be shaking at the sight. With the loss of Jansen/Blanton/JT, and the Giants addition of Melancon, I cannot see the Dodgers competing with SF. SF took care of their biggest need from last year. I would also expect, Pense/Panik/Crawford to get healthier and better offensively. The Dodgers counter Melancon with Vidal Nuno and tender/sign Chris Hatcher. I know I feel confident.

If the White Sox are in a total rebuilt after trading Sale, it make sense that they should flip Yoan Moncada for 3-4 top level prospects or team-controlled major leaguers. Dodgers are in a prime position to go after Moncada (and Todd Frazier) with a similar package that intrigued the Twins for Dozier. Offer Bellinger (which allows the White Sox to shop Abreu), De Leon, Verdugo and Calhoun (or Trayce Thompson or Alex Wood if they want major leaguers) for Moncada and Frazier. With this trade, White Sox end up with up to 5 top level prospects and 2 mid level ones for Sale and Frazier. Dodgers end up with Seager and Moncada (possibly best hitting SS-2B combo for the next 15 years) and Todd Frazier at our RH power hitter. Dodgers payroll stays about the same, or possibly less since Moncada will make the MLB minimum.

AlwaysCompete It’s still early in the off-season, so we need to see how things play out. The FO is obviously waiting to see how the market plays out. Both JT and Jansen are undoubtedly going to inform the Dodgers of the highest offer before signing with anyone else. Who wants the hassle of relocating to another city/state if your current employer will match the best deal? The FO just doesn’t want to bid against themselves, and are betting with draft compensation attached to both JT and Jansen, other teams won’t be as impulsive as (there I say stupid?) the D’Backs were last year. If the bidding gets crazy, I think getting near 1st Rd draft picks for both of them, is not a bad way to go, if there are reasonable trade alternatives.

Skythomsen AlwaysCompete Your insights are good. It will depend,I think on the greed of the players wether they stay or just go to the highest bidder. I’ve never understood why a player would take 22mill a year to play for a mediocre team instead of 20 mill for a better team. At that level of pay does the extra $ even matter?

Skythomsen AlwaysCompete You may be right, and the Dodgers FO may in fact go against their perceived (yes my perception) MO…not sign long term contracts for high AAV for players over the age of 30. It appears their threshold is $50M. Not one FA signed by this FO has any guaranteed $$$ over $50M. I hope JT is the outlier for this MO. I truly do.

You say it is early in the off-season. Yes and No. To be competitive, the Dodgers have a lot of big holes to fill 3B, 2B, RH Power Bat (not named Puig), legit bullpen with legit closer (one that does not include both Baez and Hatcher). But there is no reason to move on any of those positions of need, if they do not sign JT. So the sooner they sign JT, the more time they will have to address their other needs. The other teams are not going to stand still and wait for the Dodgers. The Giants addressed their big need. The DBacks/Mariners addressed their respective needs (we can all argue who got the better of the Segura/Walker trade). The Red Sox really went all out (Sale, Thornburg, Moreland). Who are the WS favorites now? The Blue Jays are moving on from Joey Bats and EE (Morales and Pearce). The Rays signed Ramos, catching being their one clear weakness. The Brewers/White Sox have made their decision and are busy building for the future. Do the Dodgers look at Quintana and Robertson? The Cubs look to get Wade Davis for Soler (a player they do not need). The Rangers signed their CF. The Nats will probably end up with a CF, and maybe it will be McCutcheon. McCutch would not be my choice, but it does allow the Nats to move Turner to SS, and any lineup that replaces Espinosa with Andrew McCutcheon is improved. And the Nats certainly have the players to make that trade. The Rox signed Desmond setting up Blackmon for trade. Another potential CF for the Cards, who will get a CF this week.The Marlins signed Edison Volquez and Jeff Locke.

Also, while some significant trades have occurred post New Years, most do not. January and February are generally months whereby rosters are filled with depth, not stars. There are less clubs looking, thus reducing the competition for the trade value. Most teams will hold onto their star players until the trade deadline if not traded before New Years.

Therefore, sign JT this week. Then go big for Quintana/Robertson. Make the Braun trade. Push for Dozier or Kinsler. If not, make a pitch for Jeimer Candelario from the Cubs. Verdugo for Candelario probably gets it done. Dodgers have too many LH prospects ready for the Show, and no 3B even close. Live with Kike’ Hernandez and Micah Johnson at 2B. Consider Willie Calhoun at mid-season. Move AGon for payroll reduction and a lower level (but high value) prospect. Put SVS at 1st and bring Bellinger up mid-season. Do what you have to do move Kazmir and McCarthy simply for significant payroll reduction. With Crawford and Ethier contracts coming off the books next year, they will no longer be in the luxury tax discussion. What I am afraid of is, IMO, that is the direction they want to go.

AlwaysCompete The big wrinkle with JT and Jansen is the draft compensation, especially with it being less onerous next post-season. Again, I don’t think the FO is too worried about those two, since they have a good feel that they both want to come back unless they get offers far exceeding value, i.e., Greinke. Since the Cubs are now out of the picture, and presumably Chapman going to the Yankees, the only other team who seems to be a threat are the Marlins. If Jansen does get offered 5 yrs at $80M+, then it’s a legitimate question whether any close is worth that kind of money. Same question goes to whether any starting pitching is worth $30M+ per year.

Although someone like Baez is far from a reliable closer, if he can throw strikes and work much much faster, he’s got stuff that’s similar to Jansen before he perfected his cutter. It’s clear the league is moving towards cost-controlled players with dominant starting pitching. Even Agon’s contract is becoming an albatross for 2 more years. With the luxury taxes becoming more punitive, i just don’t think the team will be fully realized until Ned Colletti’s big contracts and the Cuban debacles are all off the books in 2 years. They really need to get below the luxury tax threshold ASAP so they’re not continual repeat offenders. Dodgers really needed Hill… Kershaw, Hill and Urias could still compete with the Cubs and Nats, and the goal at this point is just to get to the WS, which I would be ecstatic with.

As I posted above, I think one creative option without increasing team payroll is to entice the White Sox to flip Moncada for 3 other top prospects, namely Bellinger, DeLeon and maybe Calhoun. It’s a lot to give up but Moncada’s celiing exceeds even Seager’s. And he would be on league minimum for 3 years. The Dodges have prospects for 1B (although 1B is the easiest position to fill), starting pitching and won’t need a 2B and SS for 10-15 years.