Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain (R-AZ) (L) and Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) stand together onstage after the first U.S. presidential debate in Oxford, ... more

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Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) points as his wife Cindy looks on after the first of three presidential debates before the 2008 election September 26, 2008 in the Gertrude Castellow Ford Center at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Mississippi. less

Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) points as his wife Cindy looks on after the first of three presidential debates before the 2008 election September 26, 2008 in the Gertrude ... more

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Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., left, and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., face off at a presidential debate at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Miss., Friday, Sept. 26, 2008. less

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., left, and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., face off at a presidential debate at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, ... more

Photo: Charles Dharapak, AP

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Risky moves could define McCain's leadership

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The roller coaster that is the 2008 presidential race has had more than its share of hair-raising twists and turns, but last week may have been the ultimate political thrill ride - one that could serve to define Republican candidate Sen. John McCain as either a bold risk-taker or an erratic, impetuous politician.

In the run-up to the year's first presidential debate, McCain shocked the political world by saying he was suspending his campaign to work out a deal on the emergency financial bailout in Washington, and issuing an off-again, on-again vow not to debate until a plan was delivered.

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But after sparring with Sen. Barack Obama at the University of Mississippi, the Arizona senator didn't personally plunge back into the negotiations on Saturday. He stayed in his Virginia condo for most of the day and visited his nearby campaign headquarters. McCain chief adviser Mark Salter said the candidate "can effectively do what he needs to by phone." McCain called President Bush and Republican leaders to discuss the $700 billion proposal to stabilize the economy.

Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor immediately seized on the development. "Now the McCain campaign says he can negotiate the bailout by phone?" he asked in an e-mail to reporters. "If this is the case, why did Sen. McCain suspend his campaign?" Obama, meanwhile, continued his campaign schedule Saturday, appearing at rallies in North Carolina and Virginia.

With 38 days left in the presidential race, McCain's unorthodox moves in the last week have created a sobering political story line: What did his roll of the dice do to his political profile?

"A president has to be steady on course. And the hallmark of presidents is that, in the 21st century, we've got to believe in their leadership skills - that they know how to take advice, make reasonable decisions," said Michael Semler, professor of politics at California State University Sacramento. "They are not individual flyboys. They have to work with people."

"Maverickdom," he said, may be a label that political consultants like to tout - but voters may view with skepticism.

Mark Petracca, a professor of political science at UC Irvine, said that "a lot of that maverick label has come from (McCain) being erratic. Not just independent of partisan politics - but changing his mind on a dime," he said.

"And these incidents - 'my campaign's off; I'm not going to the debate' - much more so than anything that went on in the debate, taught someone who doesn't know much about McCain that (he appears) erratic and is prone to changing his mind on a dime."

Garry South, a Democratic consultant who has prepped candidates at all levels, said McCain's week, which closed with the debate - widely seen as won by Obama - failed to underscore the positive maverick profile and instead bolstered a potentially troublesome line about McCain's personality.

"McCain had to look like someone on the ball and temperamentally capable of being president and commander in chief - and he has exacerbated the temperament issues," said South.

"What he likes to call being a maverick is viewed as irascible and erratic" even in many Republican political circles, he said. "He and his campaign staff were clearly just throwing Jell-O at the wall and trying to see what sticks."

An example, he noted, was how McCain jettisoned completely an argument he had made all week regarding the financial crisis.

"If the bailout deal was such a big thing to him that he supposedly put his campaign on a hiatus, why didn't he even mention that during the 90 minutes of the debate?" South asked. "It's obvious his campaign threw a Hail Mary pass, it didn't work, and he lost on both counts."

Democratic strategist Dan Newman agreed, saying, "McCain's response to the financial crisis has come across as impetuous, impulsive and inconsistent - at a time when voters want calm, consistent and confident. Desperately jerking his campaign's steering wheel from one ditch to the other reinforces voters' fears that McCain makes rash, rushed decisions lacking in sound judgment."

There has been seesawing in McCain's campaign themes as well: the argument for his experience, which began his run, was tossed overboard weeks ago and replaced with a message of "change."

"Then at the debate he went back to experience, and tried to portray Obama as uninformed - but Obama was looking anything but naïve," Newman said.

Some Republicans acknowledge that McCain's week was a challenging one - and could still have its ripple effects depending on the outcome of the financial bailout talks.

"McCain doesn't come across as a winner unless there's a deal," said Bill Whalen, a Republican strategist who has advised former Gov. Pete Wilson. "If this mess in Washington is settled, and settled in haste, we can resume with normal campaigning, and hopefully McCain can find his legs again," said Whalen, a Hoover Institution research fellow.

He said the economy and the current financial crisis are "a distraction for McCain" because "when 80 percent of the people think the country is on a bad track, then McCain can't swim against the current."

Whalen acknowledged that McCain's actions last week were dictated as much by politics as the economy.

"The frustration for the McCain campaign is this: It's been jump-started, resuscitated and been brought back to life twice," he said. "The first time was the (Iraq war) surge and the second time was the Sarah Palin pick."

In the first case, McCain's campaign was lagging desperately when he argued that the surge could work. In the second, McCain's candidacy was viewed as an increasingly longshot effort when he picked the Alaska governor as his running mate, giving his campaign a jolt of new support from the GOP grass roots.

"Now they're looking for a third jolt - and the question is if there's any juice in the battery to rejolt the McCain campaign or not," Whalen said.

But Patrick Dorinson, a Sacramento-based GOP strategist, said McCain "ended the week on a very high note" with a forceful debate performance.

"Politics is not just about facts; it's about authenticity and how you come across," he said.

And the debate allowed voters to hear directly from McCain, who "makes an emotional connection that Obama can't make," in large part because of his compelling personal story.

The week running up to the debate - complete with the national financial drama - emphasized how "it's an age of uncertainty we're living in," Dorinson said. "It's about who you trust to lead us through these difficult times."

In the short days that remain until election day, Whalen said, "the question now is, how does McCain finish strongly?"

With the economy on shaky ground, "I am just not sure what he does to do that," Whalen said. "If the October (economic) surprise was the September surprise - then maybe McCain has to wish there's another October surprise."