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You're right, no clear evidence of collusion at the highest level at this point, so far as you and I know. Not quite the same thing as no collusion, of course. We must wait and see.

I will be surprised if we ever see clear evidence of collusion reaching Trump personally. Even an ignoramus knows to use minions to conduct dirty work. Also, collusion could easily be accomplished with just winks and nods.

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To survive election season on a skeptics forum, one must understand Hymie-the-Robot.

It was about taking a hard line against Russia over Ukraine, I believe, something the Trump campaign wanted to change, for obvious reasons. And it was a request of the Trump campaign on the platform at the convention in 2016.

I will be surprised if we ever see clear evidence of collusion reaching Trump personally. Even an ignoramus knows to use minions to conduct dirty work. Also, collusion could easily be accomplished with just winks and nods.

You're right, no clear evidence of collusion at the highest level at this point, so far as you and I know. Not quite the same thing as no collusion, of course. We must wait and see.

We've been waiting and seeing for a long time. I'll note that this guy Papa-whatever was interviewed by the FBI in January 2017, with very specific questions about his Russian contacts. So we had a pretty intensive investigation for at least four months before Mueller took charge. That's at least 9 months of digging, and so far all the FBI has managed to do is show that Manafort and his business partner (allegedly) committed financial crimes long before joining Trump's campaign (and he was fired when evidence of those crimes came out in August 2016) and that a lower-level flunkie (a guy literally less than 30 years old who was stupid enough to be interviewed by the FBI without a lawyer present) lied to the FBI about stuff that was documented in his own emails.

I will be surprised if we ever see clear evidence of collusion reaching Trump personally. Even an ignoramus knows to use minions to conduct dirty work. Also, collusion could easily be accomplished with just winks and nods.

Well, Hillary is certainly smart enough to use two layers of intermediaries (or three, depending upon how you count), but I doubt Trump is. Which is why I suspect Trump is cleaner than your average presidential candidate. If Mueller conducted the same investigation of Hillary's campaign, you would see quid pro quos with foreign countries all the hell over the place, although with just enough of a buffer that other people would be taking the fall.

Well, Hillary is certainly smart enough to use two layers of intermediaries (or three, depending upon how you count), but I doubt Trump is. Which is why I suspect Trump is cleaner than your average presidential candidate. If Mueller conducted the same investigation of Hillary's campaign, you would see quid pro quos with foreign countries all the hell over the place, although with just enough of a buffer that other people would be taking the fall.

Yeah, why are are they focusing on Trump and that Papa guy instead of President Clinton ??

__________________"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States...nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

I will be surprised if we ever see clear evidence of collusion reaching Trump personally. Even an ignoramus knows to use minions to conduct dirty work. Also, collusion could easily be accomplished with just winks and nods.

Its also possible that Russia didn't collude with Trump (personally/directly) because they found him such an idiot that they figure it would be best to fix the election in his favor without his assistance.

Even if there is no proof of Trump's initial collusion, wouldn't he still be liable due to his firing of Comey (which might be seen as obstruction of justice). After all, isn't that what happened with Watergate? Nixon didn't know about the initial break in; it was his attempts to hide the crimes of his minions that caused the big problems.

Its also possible that Russia didn't collude with Trump because they found him such an idiot that they figure it would be best to fix the election in his favor without his assistance.

Even if there is no proof of Trump's initial collusion, wouldn't he still be liable due to his firing of Comey (which might be seen as obstruction of justice). After all, isn't that what happened with Watergate? Nixon didn't know about the initial break in; it was his attempts to hide the crimes of his minions that caused the big problems.

It might well be the old old story that the cover up is often a worse offense then the initial crime.

__________________Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

WASHINGTON — The lobbying firms the Podesta Group and Mercury Public Affairs are the unnamed companies in the grand jury indictment of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy, Rick Gates, according to three sources with knowledge of the investigation.

The indictment, unsealed Monday, refers to "Company A" and "Company B" as the firms Manafort and Gates solicited in 2012 to lobby on behalf of the Ukranian government. Company A is Mercury Public Affairs and Company B is the Podesta Group, the sources said.

...

__________________What a fool believes, no wise man has the power to reason away. What seems to be, is always better than nothing.

We've been waiting and seeing for a long time. I'll note that this guy Papa-whatever was interviewed by the FBI in January 2017, with very specific questions about his Russian contacts. So we had a pretty intensive investigation for at least four months before Mueller took charge. That's at least 9 months of digging, and so far all the FBI has managed to do is show that Manafort and his business partner (allegedly) committed financial crimes long before joining Trump's campaign (and he was fired when evidence of those crimes came out in August 2016) and that a lower-level flunkie (a guy literally less than 30 years old who was stupid enough to be interviewed by the FBI without a lawyer present) lied to the FBI about stuff that was documented in his own emails.

This is not a long wait. This actually is very quick to indictment as these things go.

Look at the Benghazi investigation. How long did that take to get to indictment?

__________________I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. TrudeauA person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black.Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon

and that a lower-level flunkie (a guy literally less than 30 years old who was stupid enough to be interviewed by the FBI without a lawyer present) lied to the FBI about stuff that was documented in his own emails.

That "lower-level flunkie" was in fact a foreign policy adviser, 1 of only 5 in Trump's campaign. If he isn't too sharp, one has to wonder what the real purpose of having him on the campaign staff was.

I will be surprised if we ever see clear evidence of collusion reaching Trump personally. Even an ignoramus knows to use minions to conduct dirty work. Also, collusion could easily be accomplished with just winks and nods.

I don't think Trump is that smart. He knows how to pay people off, but not necessarily how to keep his hands clean. Anyone with a pathologic sense of self like Trump's will almost certainly be stupid and careless acting on the belief he is above it all.

Its also possible that Russia didn't collude with Trump (personally/directly) because they found him such an idiot that they figure it would be best to fix the election in his favor without his assistance.

That would require the campaign to be operating outside of Trump and that's clearly not the case, Trump relishes bossing people around.

If the campaign colluded, Trump colluded. For example, Trump wrote Donnie Jr's reply about the TT meeting being about Russian adoptions.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Even if there is no proof of Trump's initial collusion, wouldn't he still be liable due to his firing of Comey (which might be seen as obstruction of justice). After all, isn't that what happened with Watergate? Nixon didn't know about the initial break in; it was his attempts to hide the crimes of his minions that caused the big problems.

And there are the meetings with and subsequent firing of Comey. I'm pretty sure Mueller considers Comey a reliable witness to those meetings with Trump.

This is not a long wait. This actually is very quick to indictment as these things go.

Look at the Benghazi investigation. How long did that take to get to indictment?

The Benghazi investigation was not a criminal investigation. It was a congressional investigation, one in which the executive branch was playing an obstructionist role in addition to the obstructionist role played by the Democrats on the congressional committees. It is hardly any surprise that it moved at a snail's pace. The investigations began in late 2012, and we didn't even find out that Hillary Clinton had a private server, where literally every single one of her work emails was stored, until March 2015. Pretty *********** amazing, huh? Mueller on the other hand has unlimited investigative resources at his disposal, two grand juries, and basically a free hand with no oversight.

The investigation really shouldn't take very long at all. When Mueller issues a subpoena, he gets the documents right away. When he asks to interview a key person, the interview happens within days of at most a couple of weeks of when he wants it. Comparing with the Benghazi investigations, it's like night and day in terms of the speed at which things happen.

It was about taking a hard line against Russia over Ukraine, I believe, something the Trump campaign wanted to change, for obvious reasons. And it was a request of the Trump campaign on the platform at the convention in 2016.

According to the GPS Dossier...
Trump - now the nominee - would use his influence on the GOP and their platform. He was going to kill the idea that the GOP wanted to give weapons to Ukriane to help fight Russia.

In return, Russia would "leak" the Democrats hacked e-mails.

Rachel Maddow did a story on that a while back, and I'm pressed for time and quick Google search isn't yielding much.

It's probably going to be someone that is roped in through his emails. His campaign supervisor was Jeff Sessions. Releasing the plea deal seems like a warning to come cooperate or be a target if you recognize yourself as one of the unnamed in the emails.

It might well be the old old story that the cover up is often a worse offense then the initial crime.

Just because we cite that mantra about Nixon surely does not make the mantra valid in this case.

I happen to think a lot of what the Nixon admin was involved in was worse than the coverup. Breaking into Ellsworth's psychiatrist's office, for example; the secret slush fund, and if you accept what history has since uncovered, worst of all was sending Kissinger to sabotage the Paris Peace Accord to increase Nixon's chance of reelection.

Which is why the Papadopolous story is probably the more important one. If he got a plea deal, it's likely because he knows some stuff and he's cooperating.

Mueller's also quite likely has one or two more talking minions up his sleeve, and he is now putting a pair of slightly bigger minions on house arrest to see who starts talking faster, faced with too much dirt on their lying arses.

Mueller went after Manafort and Gates because he can bust their guilty arses NOW. But they are not his end targets, obviously. If he wasn't pretty damned confident he can get more out of the pair than we know so far, he would have waited longer with the move - essentially until his final report. Mueller is not going to end his career on an embarrassment. He could easily safe face if his investigation ended without finding collusion and handing the collateral crimes he found on the way to the appropriate normal authorities, and tell exactly that at the press conference before his retirement. He'd go out as a hero.

I will be surprised if we ever see clear evidence of collusion reaching Trump personally. Even an ignoramus knows to use minions to conduct dirty work. Also, collusion could easily be accomplished with just winks and nods.

Well except for Trump's clear appeal encouraging Russia to investigate his opponent.

Here's why I think the indictments are revealing. It's possible these people would have some expectation that Trump would blanket-pardon them, effectively neutralizing any hold investigators had on them, greatly reducing the risk that they would cooperate with prosecutors.

That they have, it seems to me, given up dirt indicates a possibility that they know they can't count on a Trump pardon.

Which shows a consciousness, IMO, that Trump *might lose his power to pardon them*, i.e., that he might lose the presidency.

I'm less interested by the possibility of collusion than by the possibility that Ivanka and Don Jr. were involved in money laundering. They were working with shady organizations in real estate deals. In Azerbaijan Ivanka posed picking the drapes or something - a tower that never fulfilled its promise as a luxury destination. Not surprisingly, since it was built away from the other amenities a hotel might want to be located by. A tower that the Trumps backpedaled away from having any part of except a licensing deal. Well, and picking interior furnishings and advertising Ivanka's apparent involvement. Shady financing somewhat documented, from Eastern European and Iranian families tied to the Revolutionary Guard.

Construction is a handy means of money laundering. Especially towers that look impressive from the outside but have nothing much going on inside. This is very noticeable in Panama, where at least some years ago you could see nice office space on one floor, with other floors vacant and unfinished. (In fact Panamanian government agencies enjoyed some of that nice office space - and I went to the wrong floor). So from the outside it looks like something is going gangbusters, until you realize many of the floors aren't for rent. Though ironically I suppose the lure of cheap office space in an overbuilt tower market would eventually fill some of the buildings!

Organized crime. Gangsters at the highest level in Trump's circles, possible including some still in the White House. Trump himself may be immune, but his kids? I'm not so sure.

OK I'll catch up, almost done. That's just where I was going a couple of days ago when I did not post this speculation.

It's probably going to be someone that is roped in through his emails. His campaign supervisor was Jeff Sessions. Releasing the plea deal seems like a warning to come cooperate or be a target if you recognize yourself as one of the unnamed in the emails.

Maybe not. I was thinking of something along the lines of him asking NY "Can you bring them up the following charges? And then we'll release all the charges together, even though some are federal and some are state".

That sounds like collusion. Seriously I think it would be bad form for a federal investigator to attempt to influence state investigations to that level of detail. Investigators need to allow their own cases to ripen each unto its season, following the timetable of meticulous inquiry only.

But New York state has come damn close to inditing Don Jr. and Ivanka.

It's reminiscent of the judge that gave a ridiculously light sentence to the guy that raped an unconscious woman because his life shouldn't be ruined for something that took "only 30 minutes". For that matter, didn't the Las Vegas shooter only fire on the crowd for six minutes? This is a fascinating concept. If you can commit a crime in a sufficiently short time, it's not really a crime, I guess.

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