After a summer of keeping a relatively low profile, Olivia Chow sent out an anxious message a few days ago to her 31,400 Twitter followers.

“Feel like a student again — last day to finish writing my book so it can be sent to the professor er, publisher on Monday,” she tweeted.

The book,
Olivia Chow: My Journey
, will go on sale next March, timed with an eye on the 2014 Toronto mayoral campaign, which will be in full swing by then.

Described by publisher Harper Collins as a “candid memoir,” the book is just one part of a carefully planned year-long strategy developed by Chow and her advisers to win the next mayor’s race and oust Rob Ford from office.

While the election, which will be held on Oct. 27, 2014, doesn’t officially start until Jan. 2 when candidates can start to file formal campaign papers to run, both Chow and Ford are actively running right now.

Over the summer, Chow has solidified her election team, devised a fundraising campaign, worked on some policy papers and, importantly, received assurances that other potential left and centre-left candidates, notably councillors Adam Vaughan and Shelley Carroll, would not enter the race.

At the same time, Chow has maintained a solid year-long lead in early polls.

In head-to-head matchups against Ford, she is the overwhelming favourite of voters in all parts of the city from Scarborough to Etobicoke, on all the major issues and on all leadership measurements, according to the
latest poll
conducted by Forum Research. She leads in all income levels, all educational levels, all ages and with both renters and homeowners.

She beats Ford on questions on who can best handle the city budget, on who has the best vision for the city, on getting council to work together and leaving the city better than they found it.

She also leads in virtually all neighbourhoods of the city in multi-candidate polls against Ford, talk show host John Tory and city councillor Karen Stintz.

Despite all of Ford’s bluster about the strength of Ford Nation, the mayor is stuck in the 30-35 per cent support range. That’s a far cry from the 47 per cent of voters who backed his 2010 victory campaign.

Nothing he has done or said — good or bad — has budged his poll numbers in the past year.

Clearly, many voters who supported Ford in 2010 because of his populist “stop the gravy train” campaign have drifted away, embarrassed by the mayor’s behaviour over the last three years, ranging from allegations of being videotaped smoking crack to appearing intoxicated at public events, such as the Taste of the Danforth festival last month.

Those voters are unlikely to return to Ford.

These poll results are significant because, despite what critics of polls may believe, front-runners in early surveys have overwhelmingly gone on to win their elections.

That’s what happened in 2006 when David Miller coasted to re-election and in 2000 and 1997 when Mel Lastman was elected mayor. The exception was 2003 when early front-runner Barbara Hall faltered in the late stages of the campaign and finished third behind Miller and John Tory. In 2010, George Smitherman led the polls until Ford formally entered the race. Ford quickly overtook the front-runner and went on to a clear victory.

For his part, Ford too is in full campaign mode.

On Friday, he will host his annual
Ford Fest barbecue
, this time in Centennial Park in Etobicoke. More than 10,000 people are expected to show up for free food, drinks and entertainment. Earlier this summer, 5,000 people attended a similar Ford-sponsored barbecue in Scarborough.

Ford has also staged a press conference to take credit for Toronto’s falling jobless rate, claimed he has saved $1 billion for the city since taking office and released a campaign-style YouTube video, titled
“Summer of Ford,”
featuring his summer highlights, such as arm wrestling with Hulk Hogan.

Can Ford win?

Possibly, but it would take a combination of a remarkably poor campaign by Chow coupled with more candidates who split the left and centrist vote that Chow is chasing.

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