Five Stakes Races Saturday at Keeneland – Here are My Picks

by Dustin Fabian

October 4, 2018

With 18 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series ‘Win and You’re In’ races this weekend, this Friday, Saturday and Sunday are ‘must watch’ (and ‘must wager,’ in my opinion) days for racing fans as preparations for the World Championships continue.

Keeneland opens Friday and they’ve got nine Challenge Series races this weekend, including the Phoenix (Sprint) and Alcibiades (Juvenile Fillies) on Friday, the Shadwell Turf Mile (Mile), Breeders’ Futurity (Juvenile) and TCA Stakes (Filly & Mare Sprint) on Saturday and the Spinster (Distaff), Bourbon (Juvenile Turf) and Indian Summer (Juvenile Turf Sprint) on Sunday. That’s a lot of firepower in Lexington this weekend!

Santa Anita’s Sprint Championship (Sprint) is Saturday and Longchamp has a trio of ‘Win and You’re In’s’ on Sunday – the Prix de l’Opera (Filly & Mare Turf), Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Juvenile Turf) and Prix Marcel Boussac (Juvenile Fillies Turf). And you can bet them all with Xpressbet.

My focus this week is on Keeneland’s Saturday card, which features five graded stakes races and a $350K All-Stakes Pick 4 (Races 7 – 10) and $250K All-Stakes Pick 5 (Races 6 – 10) that will be hard to pass up.

The marquee race is the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, which attracted an overflow field of 16 (only 14 can start) and familiar faces like Heart to Heart, Analyze It, Voodoo Song, Divisidero and Almanaar are signed on. Simply put, this is going to be a good one!

Xpressbet customers can cash in on a 1 Million Point Split by hitting the Late Pick 4. All customers that correctly hit that bet will win an equal split of the pot.

My focus in this week’s blog was identifying the horses you ‘must use’ in the Pick 4 and Pick 5, along with horses worth considering. Any horses not listed here are tosses in my book, but may not be so unlucky in yours.

Woodford Stakes (Grade 2, $200,000) – 3YO+ - 5 Furlongs (Turf)

The All-Stakes $250,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 5 kicks off with the Woodford Stakes, a turf dash that attracted a very evenly-matched field of 12. And for this handicapper, whether or not I play the Pick 5 really hinges on how I feel about this race. And spoiler alert, it’s not very good. This field is just loaded with a bunch of horses that ‘can’ win, but not a ton that ‘should.’

In fact, I wonder if Wesley Ward is kicking himself for not entering Bound for Nowhere in the Woodford instead of the Shadwell Turf Mile. He won the G2 Shakertown by 4-lengths here in April but ended up drawing an impossible post (#14) in the Shadwell. He would be a single in this race and he’s probably now a toss in the one he was entered in.

But enough about who isn’t here – here are my thoughts on this field.

Must Use

#6 Rocket Heat (8/1) – I think he’s the speed of the speed and this is his distance. Toss his effort at short odds in the Lucky Coin last out at Saratoga when he got eliminated at the break and he’s as good as any of these.

#2 Bucchero (5/1) – Won this race last year at 26/1 and was a strong 5th in a loaded Group 1 race at Royal Ascot. Got a solid sharpener in at Parx on September 3 and should be sitting on his best effort.

#5 Holding Gold (4/1) – Tough call to put him on either list, but he certainly hasn’t been kind to his backers in the last few years. He’s just 2-for-12 since the start of 2017 and it’s just getting tough betting him and watching him come up short. He clearly needs a firm course.

Consider Using

#10 Will Call (4/1) – Effort in the KY Downs Turf Sprint Preview was an absolute head scratcher but have to trust Brad Cox will have him ready to fire. Tailed off after winning a G3 turf race at Churchill on Oaks Day.

#11 Angaston (6/1) – Has been knocking on the door all season and finally notched a stakes win at Kentucky Downs on September 13. He’s won 3-of-5 turf sprints in his career and wouldn’t be a shock.

#4 Extravagant Kid (5/1) – Has sharpened into a nice horse for Brendan Walsh and has missed the board in turf sprints just once in his last seven tries. The water is deeper here, so he’s only a fringe contender for the ‘W’ to me.

Like in the Woodford, field size here trumps field quality. Ten have been entered, but only half of these have won a graded race of any kind. It’s difficult to envision a Breeders’ Cup winner would come from this field, but there are some nice horses in here and one or two would be worth considering in the World Championships.

Miss Sunset and Chalon went 1-2 as three-year-olds in last year’s G2 Raven Run during the Keeneland Fall Meet and they rekindle their rivalry here. Neither would be a shock, but I can’t help but wonder if their presence, along with that of Vertical Oak, could set things up for a closer.

Here’s my take.

Must Use

#7 Golden Mischief (7/2) – She’s it. The only horse you ‘have’ to use. Others merit consideration but she has been sensational in her last two starts (and three of her last four) and she should carve out a great stalking trip. She’s 7-for-10 at the distance, too.

Consider Using

#3 Miss Sunset (3/1) – Won the G2 Raven Run here last fall (over Chalon and Torrent) and got the worst of the draw, ending up inside the other speed. She was also beaten just a nose in the G1 Madison here in April. Loves Keeneland, but will have to run hard every step.

#9 Chalon (4/1) – Has become a capable stalker and checks most of the boxes – success at Keeneland, loves the distance and is in top form. She’s never beaten fillies/mares this good, though.

#4 Vertical Oak (4/1) – Showed a brand new dimension when she closed to win the Open Mind last out at Churchill. Still not sold on her fast dirt prowess or her chances at this level.

#8 Curlin’s Approval (5/1) – Florida shipper is 9-for-20 in her career but 0-for-4 away from Gulfstream and she’s never hit the board anywhere but South Florida.

First Lady Stakes (Grade 1, $400,000) – F&M 3YO+ - 1 Mile (Turf)

The last two editions of this race were shockers – Photo Call ($61.40) took ‘em gate to wire in 2016 and Zipessa ($35.20) took advantage of a pedestrian pace to pull the upset last year. Will that trend continue this year? Or will it revert to 2005 – 2015, where no winner paid at odds higher than 5/1?

Here’s what I think:

Must Use

#4 Crown Walk (GB) (4/1) – I’m going to make her my top pick here by a whisker. She ships in from France for Godolphin and she’s 3-for-7 in her career. She won the G3 Prix Chloe at Chantilly in July and was runner-up in the G1 Prix Rothschild there this summer.

#3 Quidara (GB) (2/1) – Was the ‘other’ Chad Brown horse in the G2 Ballston Spa behind A Raving Beauty, but she got all the marbles that day. Not sure she can takes this field gate-to-wire but having a tough time betting against the Brown/Castellano tandem.

#2 A Raving Beauty (GER) (3/1) – I thought she looked unbeatable earlier this year when she won the G1 Just a Game and G3 Beaugay and made excuses for her defeat in the G1 Diana. But the effort as heavy fave in the G2 Ballston Spa was subpar.

Consider Using

#7 Dona Bruja (ARG) (6/1) – I’m a longtime fan of this one but I’m not crazy about the rider change back to Declan Cannon, who did not ride her well in this race last year. I preferred Jose Ortiz, who put her in the race early when he rode.

#1 Insta Erma (20/1) – Won the G3 Ladies Turf at Kentucky Downs off a long layoff and she should get pace to run at here. I would have preferred to see Drayden Van Dyke back in town to ride, but there’s a pretty big card at Santa Anita, too.

Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1, $500,000) – 2YO – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

It’s hard to believe this is the field assembled for a Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup prep race, just because it’s so subpar. But I guess they’re running in competition with the Champagne (also Saturday) at Belmont and the American Pharoah (last Saturday) at Santa Anita. There are only so many horses this time of the year with the credentials to merit running in a Grade 1.

Must Use

#13 Mind Control (7/2) – Miserable post for this speedy son of Stay Thirsty, who won the G1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga on Labor Day at odds of 10/1. He’s never tried two turns and not sure how far he wants to go, but he’s definitely the best of these. He’s the only ‘must use’ horse but I’m not sure he’s a single.

Consider Using

#2 Somebeyay (5/1) – Pletcher-charge is more workmanlike than flashy but he’s good enough to have won the G3 Sanford at Saratoga. Inside draw is a plus, but note Castellano steps off to ride Standard Deviation .

#14 Standard Deviation (10/1) – Horrendous draw for this Chad Brown-trained son of Curlin, but I love the way he broke his maiden at Saratoga on August 18. It is tough to know what he beat that day as it was an off-the-turf race and the post couldn’t be worse.

#10 Mr. Ankeny (12/1) – Big jump forward in his last race at Ellis and note the Romans go-to rider, Albarado, opts for this one over the 9. He’ll need to learn to sit back a little more, though.

Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1, $1,000,000) – 3YO+ - 1 Mile (Turf)

The marquee race on the card is the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, which attracted a loaded field of 14. You’ve got venerable veterans like Heart to Heart and Divisidero. You’ve got up-and-coming runners like Synchrony and Bound for Nowhere. You’ve got two Chad Brown horses. You’ve got pace. You have a three year old (Analyze It). Simply put, you’ve got it all.

I really have a hard time betting the outside horses here, especially the ones that need to be tactically placed. Mr. Misunderstood and Bound for Nowhere are both hard bet-againsts for me despite positive resumes, simply because I can’t envision they’ll carve out a trip that is in any way decent.

Must Use

#11 Almanaar (GB) (9/2) – Arlington Million runner-up is going to love the pace he gets here and will be rolling late. He’s a G1 winner and has been right there at the finish in his last four starts. Note the new rider (Velazquez) instead of Rosario.

#6 Synchrony (8/1) – If you accept the belief that this horse needs a firm course and races 1 1/8-mile or shorter, he’s virtually unbeatable. Actually he has been. No virtually needed. He is 5-for-5 in his career in firm turf races at 1 1/8-mile or less, with wins in the G3 Red Bank and G3 Oceanport in his last two.

#9 Analyze It (9/2) – I love this horse here. Not sure why. After all, he’s lost three straight against sophomores. But two of those were to Catholic Boy and he cuts back to potentially a better distance for him. He’s never been worse than second and regular rider, Jose Ortiz, stays in New York. Can we read into that?

#7 Qurbaan (5/1) – Shadwell import was a bit of a surprise when he won the G2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga over Voodoo Song, Forge and Projected. That field wasn’t particularly strong, though, and he was 13/1 that day and it was a blanket finish.

Consider Using

#5 Heart to Heart (7/2) – He probably needs the lead, but Voodoo Song won’t let him have it. That’s a problem. He also needs a firm course, so keep an eye on that too. But if he’s comfortable, he’s dangerous. He won a G1 on this course in April, too.

#10 Voodoo Song (6/1) – No clue what this horse brings to the table outside of New York and I thought his most recent try at Saratoga was pretty disappointing. For a horse that runs so hard every step of the way, it’s fair to wonder if he needs a break. I’ll probably pass.

My $250K Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 5 Ticket

Here’s how I’m playing the $250K Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 5:

Race 6: 2, 5, 6, 10, 11

Race 7: 7

Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 4

Race 9: 2, 13

Race 10: 5, 6, 7, 9, 11

Ticket Cost: $100 for 50-cents

My $350K Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 5 Ticket

And here’s how I’m playing the $350K Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 4:

Race 7: 3, 7

Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 4

Race 9: 2, 10, 13

Race 10: 5, 6, 7, 9, 11

Ticket Cost: $60 for 50-cents

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10.25.2018

As a horseplayer, it’s easy to press the ‘Pause’ button this weekend. The Breeders’ Cup is just over a week away and the fields have taken shape. It’d be easy to spend this weekend away from racing or simply gearing up for the World Championships.For me, I look at it differently. This is the last weekend you can bolster your Breeders’ Cup bankroll by hitting big at the windows (or on your computer or mobile device). I don’t know about you, but for me, there’s no greater feeling than logging into my Xpressbet account on Friday or Saturday morning and seeing a sizable account balance. No ‘Deposit’ button required.I’ve scoured Saturday’s entries and found five races from coast-to-coast that I feel really strongly about betting. In the harness world, this Saturday night is as big as it gets as they roll out (pun intended) the Breeders Crown at Pocono Downs. That’s like the Breeders’ Cup of trotting and pacing. And at Belmont, Keeneland and Santa Anita, graded stakes races have attracted a number of very intriguing horses.Here’s my Top 5 - Bold Ruler Handicap (G3, 200K)Belmont Park (Race 9, 5:08PM ET)3YO+ - 7 FurlongsWhat an interesting edition of the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap that truly makes me ask wonder if we really need the Breeders’ Cup horses (this week, at least). Well maybe that’s a little overstated, but hear me out. This field is actually quite unique. On one hand, you’ve got the tried-and-true group of sprinters. The grizzled vets like No Dozing, True Timber and Petrov. They’re been here, done that in this kind of race. You look through their running lines and you see races like the Forego, Kelso, Allen Jerkens, Dwyer, Wood Memorial, Carter and Vanderbilt. But then you’ve got two complete wild cards. Coal Front, a very talented sprinter for Todd Pletcher, has been on the shelf since he won the G3 Gallant Bob last September at Parx. He’s 4-for-5 in his life and this looks like a nice comeback spot. Hard to find fault in a horse whose only loss came in the G1 Allen Jerkens when he finished behind Practial Joke, Takaful and American Anthem.And then you’ve got the real X-Factor – Delta Prince. Yep, his name is very familiar. He’s a G2 winner on the lawn and he just missed by a neck behind Voodoo Song in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga in August. He hasn’t raced on the dirt since November 2016 (and he’s 0-for-2 on the surface) but this horse would’ve been a fringe BC Mile player and instead he’s here. That alone is worth watching. If he takes to the dirt like he did the lawn, look out! Breeders Crown Final for 3YO Trotting Fillies (500K)Pocono Downs (Race 11, 9:30PM ET) 3YO Fillies – 1 Mile You can’t afford to miss Pocono Downs on Saturday. Let. Me. Repeat. You can’t afford to miss Pocono Downs on Saturday.First of all, it’s the biggest night of the year in harness racing. The Breeders Crown. Championship races from top to bottom. And (if you're a Thoroughbred player) all of the horses you’ve kinda, sorta heard of in the last year – McWicked, Ariana G, Atlanta, Lazarus, Lather Up and Dorsoduro Hanover – are in action. If you're a Harness bettor, you know these entrants like the back of your hand. But more than that, Pocono is offering 15% takeout on EVERY BET this Saturday – and – at Xpressbet, we’re offering a Money-Back Guarantee on the entire card. Bet a horse in any, or every, race and get your cash back if they finish 2nd or 3rd. As for the best race on the card, take your pick. That’s like asking a Thoroughbred gal or guy which is the best Breeders’ Cup race. Almost impossible. I will admit that I’m awfully intrigued by the race for 3YO Trotting Fillies, which attracted Atlanta. She won the Hambletonian earlier this summer and also scored in the Kentucky Futurity at the Red Mile. She won her Elimination for this by ¾-length and appears poised for one more big run.
For more insights on the Breeders Crown, our Harness Handicapper Al Cimaglia has you covered. Check him out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia. Fayette Stakes (G2, 200K)Keeneland (Race 9, 5:30PM ET) 3YO+ - 1 1/8 MilesKeeneland’s traditional closing day stakes race, the G2 Fayette, attracted a solid field of seven horses and most eyes will be on Bill Mott’s Hofburg. He’s had a tumultuous 2018 campaign. He didn’t break his maiden until March 3, but he’s earned $493K in 2018, with the high water marks being a runner-up performance in the G1 Xpressbet Florida Derby and a third in the G1 Belmont. Unfortunately he missed the Travers and didn’t take to the dirt at Parx in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby. So he’s here. A big effort could set him up for a run in the G1 Clark and, ultimately, a try in the G1 Pegasus World Cup in January. But in order to get there, he needs to beat horses like Rated R Superstar, Hence and Prime Attraction, who ships in from California. Leofric is a very interesting entrant and my top pick. He’s lightly raced (just 12 starts) but was good enough to finish 3rd, beaten just 2-lengths, behind Yoshida in the G1 Woodward. A big showing by Leofric could mean good things for Yoshida in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Without much pace signed on, they’ll all need to reel him in and that won’t be an easy task. International Gold Cup Timber Stakes (75K)Virginia Gold Cup @ Great Meadow (Race 5, 2:30PM ET) 4YO+ - 3 1/2 Miles For the first time, you’re able to bet the Great Meadow jumps card on International Gold Cup Day from Warrenton, Virginia. And Xpressbet is a ‘Preferred Wagering Partner’ of the Gold Cup, which is an honor we hold in high esteem. International Gold Cup Day features eight races worth a combined $370K in purses. The day’s co-features are the $75,000 International Gold Cup Timber Stakes and the $75,000 Grade 2 David L. (Zeke) Ferguson Memorial Hurdle Handicap. My focus is on the International Gold Cup, which attracted defending champion Doc Cebu. He won this race by 11-lengths in 2017 and is a front-running tour de force on this circuit. He was 9/5 when he won last year, but he’ll be shorter this time around. Consider using him in an Exacta with Le Chevalier, who has finished first or second in all three of his starts this year. Last out he won the National Sport Cup at Middleburg last out. By the way, check out Great Meadow for a ‘throwback’ wager menu on Saturday as it is Win, Place, Show, Exacta and Trifecta betting only. No multi-race bets offered! To bet, look for ‘Virginia Gold Cup’ on the Tracklist. Autumn Miss Stakes (G3, 100K)Santa Anita Park (Race 10, 7:30PM ET) 3YO Fillies – 1 Mile (Turf) Santa Anita’s Fall Meet has been bolstered significantly by a new, exciting wager (the Rainbow 6) and some great betting races. Heading into Thursday’s races, the Rainbow 6 carryover is $724,807 and there’s no end in sight. Plus, if you get knocked out of the Rainbow 6, you can still take your shot in the Late Pick 5 and the Late Pick 4, which start in the two subsequent races.Saturday’s feature race is the G3 Autumn Miss for sophomore fillies and 14 fillies have signed on, ensuring a phenomenal betting race. The headliners in there are Ms Bad Behavior and Toinette. Of the two, Toinette is the filly that really interests me. She’s the only horse to have defeated Rushing Fall, a feat she accomplished in the G3 Edgewood on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill. She was off the board in the G1 Belmont Oaks and has been off since, but she’s twice won off layoffs and should run a big one Saturday. I’d love to see her progress into a formidable 4YO next year. Also entered is Rayya. She started her career in Dubai, won the G3 UAE Oaks and ran second (beaten the length of the stretch) in the G2 UAE Derby, won by Mendelssohn. She’s yet to figure out racing in the States but the surface change could help.So those are the five races I think you’d be crazy not to bet on Saturday. What are you looking forward to most? Drop us a message at @Xpressbet on Twitter to let us know!

10.11.2018

Grade 1 fillies are on display Saturday at Keeneland, as a field of eight squares off in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. The field is led by a juggernaut – Rushing Fall – who goes out for the potent Chad Brown barn? Is she a lock in the QEII? Or is an upset brewing? Here’s my take.Bet the Queen Elizabeth II as Race 9 at Keeneland on Saturday, with post time of 5:30PM ET. 1. Nyaleti (IRE) – Johnston/LanerieIs in strong form, having finished a close-up 5th most recently in the G2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood on August 25. Previously she ran 6th at 38/1 in Arlington’s Beverly D. Stakes, beaten just 2 3/4-lengths by Sistercharlie and Fourstar Crook. She won the German 1,000 Guineas in May and was beaten just a head in the G2 Rockfel Stakes last fall at Newmarket. She seems to appreciate some give in the ground so the course in Kentucky could be right up her alley. Switches to a jockey, Corey Lanerie, who knows his way to the Keeneland winner’s circle.2. Princess Warrior – McPeek/HernandezHas danced plenty of high-level dances, including the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and G1 Darley Alcibiades last fall and the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier this year. Unfortunately, she’s 0-for-6 in graded races and she just doesn’t seem to stack up well against these. Easy to prefer others.3. Fatale Bere (FR) – Powell/DesormeauxShe’s 5-for-10 in her career, including 3-for-7 since coming to the States last fall. The biggest score came last out in the G1 Del Mar Oaks, a race she won by a neck on August 18 at odds of 7/1. Desormeaux has been aboard for two of her wins. Only question is whether she’ll get a pace to run at as she’s somewhat dependent. Additionally, this is her first start away from those quick California turf courses at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Hard to know what to expect.4. Daddy Is a Legend – Weaver/AlbaradoShe’s raced exclusively against graded stakes horses in her last six starts, the high water mark coming with a pair of G3 victories in the Lake George at Saratoga and the Jimmy Durante at Del Mar. She won over this course last October. Robby Albarado rides for the first time and selfishly, you’d have preferred her normal rider (Manny Franco) make the trip out to ride. That would instill more confidence. Hard to back her otherwise.5. Mission Impassible (IRE) – Rouget/GerouxFrench-based filly gets a French-bred jockey, Florent Geroux, to ride. And Geroux knows how to ride this course, so that’s a plus. She won a G2 race at Chantilly in June but has been on the shelf since July 29. That’s a decent amount of time between races, but you have to imagine the connections wouldn’t have shipped to the States for a G1 if she wasn’t in peak shape. She’s kept good company and continues to perform, so you have to respect her.6. Secret Message – Motion/VargasBeat a relatively weak field in the G3 Pucker Up on Arlington Million Day at Arlington Park and took advantage of a pedestrian pace to almost win the G2 Sands Point at Belmont on September 15. Those two races were a huge step up from her prior bests, and you just have to wonder if her improved form will continue against this caliber. Again worth noting that the jocks that know her best (Velazquez, Irad Ortiz) aren’t in town to ride.7. Capla Temptress (IRE) – Mott/LeparouxWas a highly regarded juvenile filly off her win in Woodbine’s G1 Natalma last fall, but she just hasn’t put it together since. Hard to be impressed by any of her three US races this year, the best of which came when she was handled easily by Rushing Fall in the G2 Lake Placid (2nd, beaten 2 3/4-lengths). She couldn’t stay last out in the G2 Sands Point, but maybe the yielding turf hurt her that day? Like several others, she’s a pace-dependent entrant in a race void of it. Hard to endorse.8. Rushing Fall – Brown/CastellanoHer 2018 campaign has been a bit of a head-scratcher as the connections started her in a G2 and G3 off a season in which she won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in fine fettle. Overcame a layoff to win the G2 Lake Placid at Saratoga, but you have to wonder where she was for races like the Belmont Oaks. Not a ton of G1s in her division but a bit confusing that they missed them all. She’s a perfect 2-for-2 at Keeneland and obviously the Chad Brown/Javier Castellano factor reign supreme. She’ll be a short number on the toteboard (3/5, anyone?) and probably wins like it.How to BetIt’s hard to see past Rushing Fall, who just seems to check all of the boxes. Grade 1 winner? Check. Tactical speed? Check. Loves Keeneland? Check. Right jockey/trainer? Check and check. There just isn’t much she can’t do. As for me, I’ll accept that she’s going to win and play the two European entrants – Nyaleti and Mission Impassible – underneath her in Exactas. Maybe I can get lucky and catch one of them at a price. Capla Temptress and Fatale Bere are nice fillies, but you just have to wonder where they’ll get a pace to run into.