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Yemeni president’s return stokes fears of civil war

Fears that Yemen inches closer to civil war with president&rsquo;s surprise return Friday.

Yemeni men celebrate the return of President Ali Abdullah Saleh on Sept. 23, 2011. The Yemen leader, who had been away for three months seeking medical treatment, returned to a country on the brink of civil war. (MOHAMMED HUWAIS / AFP)

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s surprise return from Saudi Arabia Friday sent thousands to the streets for rivalling rallies of protest or celebration and heightened fears that the country is heading toward civil war.

Saleh may be one of the most politically astute leaders of the region — having held on to power in the Arab world’s poorest country for more than three decades — but his return early Friday shocked many.

As massive pro- and anti-Saleh rallies overran Sanaa, Saleh called for a truce between the fractured military factions of his regime, whose battles have left as many as 100 dead this week and hundreds more injured.

But by nightfall, security forces under the command of Saleh’s son Ahmed continued to shell strongholds belonging to defected leader Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar.

Saleh had been in Riyadh recovering from chest wounds and burns suffered in a June assassination attempt. He flew secretly to Yemen on what local media described as a Saudi royal private jet early Friday.

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Soon after Yemen state news announced his return, the U.S. State Department urged Saleh to sign a Gulf Cooperation Council agreement, which would require elections by the end of the year and his resignation in return for immunity from prosecution.

“We want to see Yemen move forward on the basis of the GCC proposal, whether President Saleh is in or out of the country,” department spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters in Washington.

“He can make that happen by signing this accord, stepping down from power and allowing his country to move on.”

But Saleh is a survivor who famously boasted that ruling Yemen is like “dancing on the heads of snakes” and few believe he has come back only to arrange his departure. He has indicated he would sign the accord three times this year only to pull out.

Saleh’s “return is like gasoline on a raging fire,” U.S. analyst Gregory Johnsen wrote on his popular Yemen blog Friday.

And those surprised that Saleh has not fallen like other regional leaders have underestimated his political acumen, Johnsen argues — noting that Saleh’s favourite anecdote is how the CIA predicted he would be dead six months after taking power in 1978.

While Sanaa’s urban warfare this week has overshadowed other regions in conflict, fighting in the country’s south and in areas where Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has a presence plays an important role in how the international community responds to Yemen.

But what is taking actually taking place is far from clear.

For the past few months, an Islamic group known as Ansar al Sharia has been marking its turf in the port city of Aden with scrawled graffiti. But not long after their anti-government slogans appear, another message is spray-painted in Arabic below: “With best regards, from the national security establishment.”

In other words, the people of Aden aren’t buying it. Common consensus is that this group, being linked with AQAP, is actually an arm of Saleh’s regime — a ploy by the president to divert attention back to terrorism and away from the protests calling for his resignation.

Talking terrorism is a tactic that has worked well in the 10 years since 9/11, when the majority of foreign funds came in the form of military and intelligence aid.

“This is really just a play. They want the south to be occupied with this problem,” said former Yemeni prime minister Haider Abu Bakr al Attas, in a telephone interview from Cairo.

Al Attas and others in the region said government forces abandoned the town of Zinjibar in May and provided covert support to help militant Islamic fighters take over the region. Hundreds of refugees were forced to flee and seek shelter in Aden.

“The military forces pulled out and they left everything behind without going to war,” said journalist and Saleh critic Najeeb Yabli, in a telephone interview from Aden. “The situation is tragic and miserable.”

Government forces went on the offensive two weeks ago, announcing that they had regained control of the area and killed as many as a dozen key AQAP leaders. But fighting continues.

“If you talk to 10 different Yemenis, you’ll get 10 different stories about what’s happening,” said Johnsen. “Some people don’t even believe (AQAP) exists — that they’re just thugs of Saleh.”

Questions remain about their ties, the scope of their influence and if forces within Saleh’s regime or rivalling factions are trying to use the threat of terrorism or Islamic governance as leverage.

“There is a lot of confusion about what’s happening in the south,” said Johnsen. “To a large degree we’re operating in the fog of war.”

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