Ukraine at crunch point

Vladimir Putin needs the West's help to make the right choices in Ukraine

By Tony Brenton

9:09PM BST 02 May 2014

The April 17 Geneva Accord between Russia and the West briefly offered a moment of hope that Ukraine’s downward slide could be reversed.

The parties agreed to refrain from violence, disarm illegal groups and end illegal occupations. Within hours it was unravelling.

Russia, whether through will or impotence, failed to stem the tide of occupations in east Ukraine. The Ukrainian government failed in exactly the same way, with the armed Right-wing groups of west Ukraine. Both sides were taking hostages (including, in the east, some European observers) and Ukraine’s understandable threat to use force to reoccupy its eastern cities was greeted by Russia as an evident breach of the agreement to be condemned as such by the West.

The dam has now burst. Ukraine’s military assault to try to regain control of Slavyansk, whatever its success, has already led to fighting and casualties on both sides. The Kremlin has denounced the attack as “criminal” and as having “destroyed the last vestige of hope for the viability of the Geneva accords”. Ukraine may well be on the verge of civil war. If we are to pull back from the brink it is important to understand the options facing Vladimir Putin.

The Russian president has been clear that he wants a neutral Ukraine where Russia’s interests, including the security of the Russian-speaking population, are respected. It would be politically impossible, and conceivably fatal, for him to make any settlement which did not meet this bottom line, whatever the West may do.

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What he does not want is to have to invade Ukraine, take responsibility for its bankrupt and ungovernable eastern half, find himself in a shooting war with the Ukrainian army, and face an even more damaging split with the West.

But as the situation in the east deteriorates Mr Putin finds himself in the hands of his generals and of the expectation he has created among his own population that, if necessary, he will step in to protect their compatriots (as they see them) in east Ukraine. We need to give him space to make the right choice, and not send the troops in.

While the Russia-bashing of the past few weeks may have been necessary to meet congressional and other demands, the West needs to think more clearly about where it is taking us. Kiev needs to be forcibly reminded of its Geneva commitment to refrain from violence. The tanks need to be rolled back. "In exchange the West ought to be able to get some sort of Russian undertaking (for whatever it is worth) to rein back the secessionists in the East".

Russian, and other, efforts to get the hostages released must be pushed forward. And every effort needs to be made to get Geneva back on track. The alternative is a denouement which benefits nobody: an irretrievably split Ukraine; an embittered, even more anti-Western, and impoverished Russia; and an international system, which, with the alienation of one of its key players, will work worse for all of us.