2018 College Football Bowl Projections, Week 14: Finally, Some Changes

We're just a week away from bowl games being set for the 2018-19 college football postseason.

There are, once again, more bowl-eligible teams than spots, meaning a few teams will get left out.

The College Football Playoff picture got a little cloudier with Ohio State's win over Michigan, but it sets up some drama for championship weekend.

Ready for college football bowl season? We are too.

In anticipation of those bowl announcements, we’re projecting the participants in all 39 games. We’re also projecting the point spread in these hypothetical matchups using The Action Network power ratings.

2018 College Football Bowl Projections

Our playoff projections changed for the first time in three weeks because of Michigan’s loss to Ohio State. The Wolverines are now eliminated, while the Buckeyes are very much alive.

College Football Playoff Projections

You can read about our playoff projections in more detail here. The most likely scenario is Alabama and Clemson winning, with Ohio State getting the slight nod over Oklahoma for the fourth spot (Notre Dame has already locked up its bid, by all accounts), assuming both the Sooners and Buckeyes win.

College Football New Year’s Six Bowls

Things could get real messy with LSU’s loss to Texas A&M. Should the Tigers drop out of the top 12 in Tuesday’s rankings, every SEC team will get bumped down a bowl game.

But the committee has been favorable to the Tigers so far, despite two losses. And it can hopefully see that LSU got screwed on Saturday night.

Michigan will likely still go to the Rose Bowl, because the selection committee has been adamant in the past that this spot will go to the highest-ranked Big Ten team in the College Football Playoff Top 25 should the league champion reach the playoff. We’ll assume Ohio State does for now.

Washington State vs. Penn State vs. Texas will be an interesting debate for an at-large bid, but we’ll see how far the committee drops Wazzu after its home loss to Washington.

Every Other 2018 Bowl Game Projection

A bunch of five-win teams pulled off upsets on Saturday, meaning we’ve got more bowl-eligible teams than spots. Right now, there are 81 bowl-eligible teams for 78 spots, and Virginia Tech could make it 82 next week with a win over Marshall.

As for who gets left out, it’s anyone’s guess. Right now, there are no spots for Wyoming, Miami Ohio and Nevada, and Virginia Tech could be added to the mix next week.

College Football Bowl Tie-Ins for 2018-19

College Football Playoff

Cotton Bowl semifinal (Arlington, Texas)

Orange Bowl semifinal (Miami)

New Year’s Six

Sugar (New Orleans): Big 12 vs. SEC

Rose (Pasadena, Calif.): Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Peach (Atlanta): At-large vs. at-large

Fiesta (Glendale, Ariz.): At-large vs. at-large

The highest-ranked Group of 5 team will go to either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl, depending on geography.

Every Other Bowl

BYU was supposed to be tied to the Poinsettia Bowl, but that no longer exists. The Cougars do have a deal with ESPN that guarantees they’ll play in a bowl if eligible.

Liberty has a deal with the Cure Bowl, as well, but it might be tough for the Flames to get to six qualifying wins — even if the Flames beat New Mexico State and Norfolk State, they’ll have two FCS wins, and only one counts toward the six-win threshold.