November 27, 2014

This Sunday, the top two teams in the NFL will square off in a mid-season clash of the titans to decide....nothing other than the upper hand in conversation when discussing which team reigns supreme in all of the league.

In any case, here at ATT, we've partnered with the great guys at NE Patriots Life, specifically Mr. Mike Saver to discuss a few key topics that will she light on which team has the best chance of leaving the Frozen Tunrda of Lambeau Field as the NFL's elite team. Enjoy and please tweet your thoughts to both @Titletown_Talk and @PatriotsLife.

Packers and Patriots Keys Stats Through Week 12

Topic #1: Both Green Bay and New England seem to be hitting their offensive strides, with excellent QB play and solid running attacks. Mike, for the few teams that have done it, what’s the key to slowing down Brady, Gronk and the NE running attack?

Mike, NE Patriots Life: During the Patriots seven game winning streak, it's obviously been pretty rare that a team has slowed down any bit of the Patriots offense. However, despite all of the lopsided scores, the opposing defense has occasionally forced them to play left handed.

The thing with this year's Patriots team is that they are probably one of the most versatile teams in Bill Belichick's tenure. They can do many different things well, which is something Belichick mentioned to the team in the locker room after the 42-20 trouncing of the Indianapolis Colts.

Will Gronk get the best of Green Bay's Secondary?

That game famously saw SI cover boy Jonas Gray rush for over 200 yards and four touchdowns. What's notable about that of course is that Brady struggled in this game (two interceptions) yet the team was able to overcome that and ride the defense and running game to a blowout victory anyway. That's not something you could say before about the Pats.

In the past, teams have always had success against the Pats offense when they've been able to get consistent pressure when only rushing four and dropping seven back in coverage. The Giants laid out this blueprint in the 2007 Super Bowl, and the Packers actually had a lot of success playing off this strategy in 2010 when they nearly upset Brady and the dominant Pats in Foxborough with Matt Flynn as the quarterback. That New England team was later upset in the divisional round of the playoffs by the Jets and afterwards Rex Ryan credited that Packers game plan for their success against Brady. When a team can execute it, the strategy has pretty consistently slowed down this team.This 2014 team has a legitimate power running game to counteract that strategy though, something that hasn't been present since the early 2000s.

You can also try to take Gronk out of the game, but that tends to just open up things on the outside. Case in point, Detroit just relatively limited Gronk, holding him to a touchdownless day (5 catches, 78 yards). If you told the Lions that going into the game, they'd likely be thrilled. They still lost by 25.

You could also try to focus on slowing down the running game, not something many teams have bothered doing, but that obviously then handicaps your ability to put extra guys covering Gronkowski.

Teams have certainly slowed down either Brady, Gronk or the running game, its just been very hard to stop all three strengths of this offense at the same time. That has been what has made the team so dangerous.

Topic #2: Shane, the Packers ability to score on opponents early has been a key to their 8-3 start, what will Belichick’s game plan be to slow down Aaron Rodgers and avoid getting down early?
Shane, Arman's Titletown Talk: At 10.4 points per first quarter Green Bay owns teams out of the game, 2 points better than any NFL team. At home they average 13.8 in the first, more than 3 points ahead of the next NFL team and a TD better than New England at home.

I guess New England will call a conservative game early and focus on establishing their run game on a suspect Green Bay front. The Patriots best chance of keeping the Packers off the scoreboard is holding onto the ball themselves and stringing together a few 10+ play drives that span 5+ minutes. Tom Brady will look to Rob Gronkowski for the intermediate pass and sprinkle in plenty of RB touches to get the Packers off balance early.

Jordy Nelson made the cover of Sports Illustrated. Cool, huh?

On defense, I gander the Patriots will focus on playing coverage defense and trusting their talented corners to win on the outside match-ups against Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. No doubt, New England has a talented secondary, but what they won't account for is what every other defense doesn't - Aaron Rodgers escape-ability. His knack for extending plays makes it almost impossible for the secondary to shut out receivers, and I think we'll see Rodgers scramble and find his guys ad-hoc for a few big plays early. Green Bay will feed off the home crowd and find a way to make plays early and get a lead.

Topic #3: While both coaches will be working hard on game plans, NFL outcomes usually down which team can win more individual matchups. Mike, what’s one individual matchup you think the Patriots will try to exploit to gain the upper hand on Green Bay?

Mike, NE Patriots Life: As has been the case so often this season, I have to point to the secondary here and the battles between Brandon Browner, Darrelle Revis and Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson.

Eddie Lacy has come on as of late, but like the Patriots, the Packers bread and butter is their passing game and future Hall of Fame quarterback. As a result the job that the Pats star studded secondary can do in slowing Rodgers down is likely going to determine the outcome of the game.

Revis has mostly looked like his old self, and most recently added Megatron to his growing list of impressive receivers he's limited. Of course the Pats have used Revis a little differently than the Jets did back in the day - electing not to have him line up on one receiver all game - and so Revis will probably see time on both Cobb and Nelson. When he's not covering one of them it'll be up to the likes of Browner to disrupt the timing on the receivers' routes to try and buy the Patriots pass rush some extra time against an impressive Packers front.

The defensive game plan starts with Revis, so that's the matchup to watch from the Pats perspective.Similarly Shane, what’s a key matchup you think the Packers should focus on to contain Brady and attack the Patriots offense?
Shane, Arman's Titletown Talk: It's Rob Gronkowski, no question. The Packers have been historically terrible at covering tight ends and this year has been no different. I imagine Dom Capers has conjured up a very specific game plan for tracking Gronk's every move with the goal of keeping him under 75 yards and 5 catches. Tramon Williams and Sam Shields are fully capable of holding down Edelman and LaFell, but those matchups can't be ignored because if either guys has a step on the Packers DBs, Brady WILL find them.

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Ultimately, it comes down to protecting the middle of the field. Edelman works the inside routes better than most NFL WRs and Gronk opens up the seams as good as any TE. The Packers inside LBs will be tested and that just happens to be one of the Packers' biggest weakness. Brad Jones or AJ Hawk against Gronk makes me want to throw up in my mouth.

Topic #4: Lastly, let’s both predict what kind of game this will be in the frozen tundra – a high-scoring air affair between two of the game’s best QBs, or a lower-scoring grind-it-out battle won between the tackles. Oh, and a final score prediction.

Mike, NE Patriots Life: This will be a pretty significant test for the Pats as they are entering a buzz saw in Lambeau. I do ultimately see the Pats pulling this one out. The Pats offense may look to exploit a Packers run defense that has been shaky (-26.9 rush defense rating according to PFF) and that could play right into the hands of the defense as they'll want to keep the red hot Aaron Rodgers on the sideline as much as possible.

I still see it being a relatively high scoring affair, but the Patriots have proven this year that they actually have the personnel to take over a game when they need to with their rushing attack. I think that will ultimately end up being the difference as Rodgers simply may not be able to get enough time on the field to keep up in a shoot out with Brady and company.

Over the last seven games, teams are averaging 19 points against the Patriots. I have to think that Aaron Rodgers and company will be able to best that average, especially at home.

The sight Packer fans hope to see many times this Sunday

Patriots 34, Packers 28

Shane, Arman's Titletown Talk: I think this game will be a lower scoring, grind-it-out victory for the Green Bay Packers, Eddie Lacy will continue taking on a larger role in the offense and Aaron Rodgers will hit just the right amount of "home run plays" to keep the Patriots offense off balance. It will be back-and-forth throughout the game, but two Brady INTs will be the difference in a 24-21 win for the Green Bay Packers.