Bitcoin Crashes, Segwit2x Delayed, Hardfork in Two Weeks

Bitcoin dived down some $300 yesterday, quickly falling from around $2,350 to a current price of $2,050 at the time of writing, continuing a downtrend that started more than a month ago.

Bitcoin’s downtrend during June and July 2017.

The community is on edge as a fast approaching deadline of 1st August now seems likely to chain split bitcoin into two – bigger blocks and smaller blocks.

Segwit2x, an attempt to prevent such split by promising both small blocker’s segwit and bigger blocker’s on-chain capacity increase, has seemingly been slightly delayed, while also being rejected by both sides.

Small blockers hate its on-chain increase that is to occur three months after segwit activates. Big blockers think segwit2x will never go ahead with the on-chain increase, seeing it as only a way to activate segwit.

The distrust has led to two new clients, UASF and BitcoinABC. UASF will activate segwit regardless of miners support, but if segwit2x is addopted by miners before August the 1st, as some 90% have said they will, then UASF will be made irrelevant.

On the other hand, BitcoinABC, which largely uses the same method of increasing on-chain capacity as Bitcoin Unlimited, will hardfork on August the 1st to increase on-chain capacity without requiring any majority miner support.

As such, bitcoin will split into two. A small blocks bitcoin and a big blocks bitcoin, which will probably be called Bitcoin Core (BCC) and Bitcoin Unlimited (BTU).

Everyone is advised to not transact on August the 1st. But on the code and technical aspects, things should go smoothly. All those that have bitcoins on August the 1st will be given the same amount on the BCC and BTU chain.

At least one exchange will most probably list both, with BCC likely listed as just BTC. Then, a period of very high volatility is to be expected price wise as the market decides the value of the two coins.

Whichever coin gains 70% or more of the price value will likely be given the bitcoin brand and the BTC ticker, with the minority coin then probably to be called Bitcoin Core with a BCC ticker or Bitcoin Unlimited with a BTU ticker depending on which of the two will be the minority coin.

Something that currently is very difficult to predict. So we will have to wait for the monumental events of what will probably be a very historic day in this space.

Why is this difficult to predict ? Markets, businesses, and exchanges have always sided with Core in the past and will do the same again. Core are MIT developers and BTU developers are backed by a few miners. This is a no-brainer. Expect traders to go long BCC and short BTU. I’m a trader that’s what I plan to do.