In brief

The investigation by the Department of Justice into links between the president, Donald Trump, and Russia will dominate the presidential term. The November 2018 midterms delivered a split Congress, with Democrats in charge of the House and Republicans in charge of the Senate, which will slow the passage of legislation. Economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2019, as pressures related to trade tariffs and higher interest rates build, before a business-cycle slowdown hits in 2020.