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Sunday, November 05, 2006

Election projections, again.

Here is a reconstruction, as best as I can do, of the election projections I made yesterday here which Blogspot somehow lost from the site destroying hours of work.

Originally I had a short blurb on about 25 key races for the House of Representatives. There is no way I can reconstruct that. I apologize. The best I can do there is tell you my conclusions. I looked at 19 races where I was sure the Democrats would pick up a seat from the Republicans. There are another couple of dozen where they might pick up seats from the Republicans including some seats the Republicans once thought safe.

The net result, I believe, will be a gain of 20 to 25 seats for the Democrats. I think there is a chance the Democrats can gain up to 30 seats in the House.

As for Senate. The question is whether the Republicans can win the Senate. They can but it will be harder. But they have a decent chance of doing so. They need to pick up six Republican seats. They look as if they are picking up five for sure. The one seat that is still in doubt is the race in Virginia.

Republicans have poured millions into a campaign which the Democrats foolishly ignored for too long. Big government Republican George Allen has made major mistakes and his racist leanings are haunting him. I would say control of the Senate all hinges on Virginia. If Allen wins the Republicans keep the Senate. If Webb wins the Republicans will lose control.

Now people, prepared yourselves for the biggest betrayal of them all. I’m not saying it will happen but it is possible. The Nanny-statists Joe Lieberman will win his Senate seat as an independent. He claims he will caucus with the Democrats even though his campaign is heavily funded by Republicans who stabbed their own candidate in the back. Now ask yourself why.

Would the Republicans pour millions into a victory campaign for a Democrat without expecting anything in return? If the the Democrats have a one seat advantage, with Lieberman, the pressure the White House will put on Lieberman to switch allegiances (not that it would be difficult for him) will be immense. I still think there is a very good chance that Lieberman intends to switch parties after the election. If he told voters his intentions before Tuesday he would lose. So while I think the Democrats can win the Senate I also think there is a good chance that a Judas in their own party, who has already collected his 30 pieces of silver, will betray them. And don’t be suprised if Lieberman then wants the Republican nomination in 2008 for the presidency.

Now for some specific Senate races. Jim Webb is ahead but only slightly in Viriginia. Considering the deficit he had to make up in that race this is astounding. It shows the depth of discontent for the disastrous policies of George Bush -- obvious to everyone except Bush himself.

In Montana I expect Democrat Tester to win. It will be close but he should win by one to three points. In Michigan there will be an easy win for the Democrats. In Missouri the Democrats will win.

Tennessee was close but racist ads run the Republicans have hurt the Democrate Harold Ford, Jr., and he has lost ground. It is one of the most shameful uses of bigotry by the Republicans and there are so many examples to pick from. The Republicans will keep Tennessee.

At one point the Republicans thought they would pick up New Jersey. They won’t. Easy win for Menendez.

In Rhode Island long time Senator, Republican Lincoln Chaffee will lose. Another pickup for the Democrats.

In Arizona the awful Jon Kyl, a Republican who loves massively big government will coast to victory. Shame, as he is one of the Republicans most deserving of defeat.

Bible-bigot Rich Santorum of Pennsylvania is out of there. A big loss for Santorum is coming. Minnesota will elect a Democrat as well. And the key state of Ohio will toss out their Republican Senator and replace him with a Democrat. This will be a major loss to the Republicans. Washington will put Democrat Cantwell back into her seat.

The numerous races for gubernatorial seats have been ignored pretty much. They shouldn’t be. Currently Republicans have 28 governors and the Democrats have 22. I expect that to reverse itself with the Democrats picking up six of these races. That puts them in a good position when it comes to redistricting after the 2010 census.

This could break the Republican domination of the House of Representatives. Not enough attention is being paid to the state level.

Again I apologize for all the details of the previous analysis vanishing. Blame Blogspot.