GDHQNHL15_f-Advanced Metrics 4

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be measured, too. So, if a player is on the ice for six shots on goal, four
that miss and two that are blocked, his Corsi-plus number is 12. If, while
he is playing, the opponents have a total of five shots (on net, missed,
blocked), he has a Corsi-minus statistic of five. That makes his total
Corsi differential a plus-seven. Or, if you want to look at it in terms of
percentages, he has a 70.6 percent (12 divided by 17).
Another enhanced metric employed is Fenwick, which does the
same thing as Corsi but does not include blocked shots in its calculation.
The goal is to measure effective ice time, the better to understand how a
player helps (or hurts) his team.
In baseball, advanced metrics mavens use WAR (Wins Above
Replacement) as the consummate measurement of a player’s worth.
Rather than look at statistics like batting average, home runs and RBI,
WAR takes into account defense, baserunning and the ability to throw to
create a number that calculates complete worth, rather than a snapshot.
Advanced hockey statistics attempt to measure a player’s role in
possession and the idea that shooting percentage isn’t always an accurate
measurement of someone’s value. The goal is determining which players
fit best on which teams, a good reason why so many clubs are reticent
about discussing their forays into this new world.
“There are some formulas out there already,” Dubas says. “We can
collect information from game logs and build our own formulas, too.”
Perhaps the most important thing that can be measured is a team or
individual’s success in possession of the puck. You can’t score without
it, right? And a lot of the stats that are growing in popularity rely on the
ability to hold onto the disc. You can’t shoot without it, so a Corsi-plus
is out of the question for players whose teams have trouble possessing
the puck. It would stand to reason, then, that measuring giveaways and
takeaways is pretty important, too. Not that there isn’t an inherent risk
in that practice, since measurement of those stats can be subjective,
based on who his calculating them. Since there is a variance based on
statisticians in different rinks, the giveaway/takeaway index isn’t always
considered as seriously as Corsi or Fenwick numbers.
For goalies, the big number is save percentage. Even more important
is even-strength save percentage, because that allows for the elimination
of special teams’ strengths or weaknesses. A goalie that piles up a lot
of wins might just be benefitting from a
potent offense and might be a detriment
in a tight game. Anything over a .925
figure is considered strong, and if a goalie
gets past .930, he’s in serious Vezina
Trophy consideration.
How teams use these numbers is entirely
up to them. Some franchises might be
concerned primarily with puck possession
over everything else. Another may value
takeaways for its forwards and defensemen
highly. Just as Dean Lombardi built the Kings
by valuing powerful forwards from whom it
was tough to shake loose the puck, so might
another GM favor speed over everything
else and a third want tough grinders, like
Columbus has accumulated. There is no set
formula for how to use these statistics, but
there is no doubt teams are paying more
attention to them and figuring out ways to
make them work for their purposes.
“They provide a tremendous amount
of content that allows you to focus on the
ENTERING HIS THIRD
SEASON WITH HIGH
CORSI RATINGS,
VLADIMIR TARASENKO
IS POISED TO HAVE A
BIG SEASON.
Scott Rovak/NHL/Getty Images
process on the ice,” Dubas says. “You can look at the outcomes every
night, and they can mislead you. You might be getting lucky.
“These numbers allow you to measure which players play well
together and give you strategies that can help you execute the process
better. It helps you decide how to procure talent and how to utilize it.”
And move out of the analytic Stone Age.
TOMAS TATAR
HAS LED THE RED
WINGS IN CORSI
LAST SEASON,
WHICH MEANS
DETROIT IS IN
POSITION TO
SCORE WITH HIM
ON THE ICE.
Gregory Shamus/NHL/Getty Images