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VANCOUVER—At some point, you have to believe Canada’s amazing string of lucky breaks in Davis Cup tennis is going to come to an end.

But not yet, apparently.

It started last fall when South Africa, after deciding it couldn’t afford to host a tie between the two countries, came to Montreal without its best player, Kevin Anderson, and then found its No. 2 player, Rick de Voest, was injured as well.

Led by a dominant Milos Raonic, Canada won easily.

The next opponent was Spain, arguably the strongest tennis country in the world, but Canada got home court again and the Spanish arrived in Canada without Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and most of their top stars.

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Again, Canada won fairly easily with Frank Dancevic delivering the performance of a lifetime in Vancouver, taking yet another step in Davis Cup that the country had never taken before.

That brings us to this weekend, again on the grounds of the University of British Columbia, and the Davis Cup quarter-finals against Italy, a finalist 15 years ago but in more recent years a country, like Canada, that has had to scratch and claw its way through zone play to get to the elite group of 16.

The Italians beat Croatia in dramatic fashion earlier this year on the same February weekend Canada beat Spain, using a spectacular effort by Fabio Fognini, who paired with Simon Bolelli to win the doubles then captured the deciding fifth rubber by himself to help Italy advance.

Theoretically, while Canada has Raonic, the Italians have more depth, at least that’s the way most would have handicapped this weekend’s collision.

Then Canada’s Davis Cup luck kicked in again.

Sure, it was a problem when Dancevic’s left knee flared up and didn’t respond to a shot of cortisone on Wednesday, forcing him to declare himself unfit.

But the Italians suffered a bigger blow when Bolelli suffered a wrist injury last week in Miami. He and Fognini are one of the top doubles teams in the world, but instead of putting Fognini out there with another partner, Italian captain Corrado Barrazzutti opted to go with the much less dangerous tandem of 35-year-old Daniele Bracciali and 31-year-old Paolo Lorenzi.

At least Canada’s Daniel Nestor, 40, won’t feel so old out there when the doubles goes on Saturday.

So while Canada can’t be considered the favourite, the formula for advancing to the Davis Cup semifinals, a stratosphere Canadian tennis fans wouldn’t have imagined reaching just a few years ago, is suddenly more straightforward.

Have Raonic, No. 16 in the world, beat Fognini and Andreas Seppi in his two singles matches, then knock off Italy’s second best doubles squad.

Game, set, match. Theoretically.

Of course, the thing about Davis Cup is the unexpected tends to happen. So, for safety’s sake, Team Canada undoubtedly would be thrilled if history would repeat itself in the early afternoon on Friday when Vasek Pospisil takes on Seppi.

Seppi, 29, is ranked No. 18 in the world and Pospisil has tumbled to No. 140 after breaking into the top 100 last year. It should be a mismatch.

However, Pospisil defeated Seppi in a tight three-set at the Rogers Cup in Toronto last summer and, after a battle with mono during the winter, the leaner Pospisil could really get Canada off to a great start if he can do it again in his hometown.

Once more, the Canadians are using the lightning fast court they used to beat Spain, and this time are going back to the small, faster Yonex balls that Raonic loves, as does Pospisil.

“They know this court better than us,” said Seppi. “In tournaments we never find a surface as fast as that.”

If the Canadians were ever going to make this happen in Davis Cup competition and earn a spot in tennis’ Final Four, now is the time. So much has fallen their way in the past eight months, and even if Raonic continues his rise in the men’s rankings, this chance may not come again for years.

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