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Abstract

In the US there are numerous studies on presidential greatness. It started in 1948 when the
historian Arthur M. Schlesinger asked 55 of the leading American historians to rate all the
presidents, starting from George Washington, on a scale from 1 to 5. The result was
published in Life Magazine in 1949 and became heavily debated. Since then there have been
undertaken many analyses concerning which factors predict presidential greatness. Years in
the presidency, war years and presidential scandals are generally seen as significant
predictors on presidential greatness in the US. Which variables predict greatness among 25
prime ministers in Norway between 1905-1997? Such quantitative analyses have never been
undertaken, and therefore this study focuses on a wide approach using multiple regression
and OLS method. The data are mainly collected from the Norwegian Bureau of Statistics and
Norsk samfunnsvitenskapelig datatjenteste. Of the 21 included independent variables,
divided into groups of institutional, socioeconomic and biographical factors, months as
prime ministers and unemployment were found to be significant variables in predicting
greatness. These factors account for 53 percent of the variation in greatness. Months as
prime ministers was the most important factor in predicting greatness. By studying the
residuals it was revealed that some prime ministers did not fit into the model. Christian
Michelsen, who led the country when it came independent from Sweden in 1905, was
heavily underpredicted, probably because the respondents emphasized this event when rating
him great.