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NFL picks: Peyton Manning should sit out: Kelly

The Denver Broncos should let Peyton Manning heal now, or they risk a shot at post-season success.

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, left, holds his leg after being injured while playing the San Diego Chargers as teammate running back Knowshon Moreno, right, talks with him during the second half of a NFL football game on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013, in San Diego. (Gregory Bull / The Associated Press)

The last time we turned an ankle, it didn’t occur to us that it was “high” or “low” or anywhere in between. It just felt like our foot was about to fall off.

Peyton Manning will be playing Sunday through a “high” ankle sprain — one of five separate ankle injuries in the last month. On the last play of last weekend’s victory over the Chargers, he was clipped low and limped off the field. After an MRI, he’s been cleared to play this weekend against the undefeated Chiefs.

You can smell the disaster cooking here. It smells like burnt toast.

The 7-1 Broncos have no backup to speak of (hands up if you’d heard of Brock Osweiler before last weekend. . . . Hands down, showoffs). It’s Manning or bust.

They play three big games in the coming three weeks: Chiefs, Patriots and Chiefs again.

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This is where the philosophical playbook will kill the Broncos. In many ways, the 5-4 Packers are better off. They’ve lost Aaron Rodgers for a month or so. If he doesn’t rush a collarbone injury, he’ll come back rested for a playoff run.

Meanwhile, Manning will be out on the field attempting to bend his joints at right angles. We appreciate a tough guy as much as anyone, but what is the purpose of putting the most elite veteran in the league through a ring of regular season fire? Is it to win the division? Home field is great and all, but the Broncos have no chance without Manning.

Better to beat a tactical retreat now and gun for a wild-card spot. The Packers rode a sixth seed to a Super Bowl win three years ago. It can be done. Better to shut Manning down for a month and return with him fully fit, than limp in on top and get blown out when it matters.

That won’t happen for the same reason a lot of dumb things are done in football — because that’s how everyone else does it. No sport offers more coverage to banal thinkers under the heading “common wisdom.”

It gets extra stupid if the Broncos lose on Sunday, and continue to push Manning in any case.

The last three NFL champions have taken the field on the first playoff weekend. There is no magic to a bye. The key is to arrive in form and fit. Look no further than Joe Flacco’s middling regular 2012 season, playoff for the ages, and return to middling-ism for proof of that.

This has been Manning’s problem his entire career: Timing. Losing to Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago after being lured into a public slanging match with Colts owner Jim Irsay won’t have helped his confidence in that regard.

The smart thing would be shutting Manning down now, and giving up on the AFC West. Since neither Manning nor his team will take that risk, we’ve given up on them in this space. They will likely win the regular season battles, and it’ll cost them the post-season war.

Week 10 Record: 7-7

At the rate of attrition last weekend, we’re considering draws as victories.

Year-to-Date: 69-60

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (Thurs., 8:25 p.m.)

As it says in the Bible, ‘Never pick the team that just lost to the Jaguars. And avoid pork.’ Colts (-3)

NY Jets @ Buffalo (Sun., 1 p.m.)

Facing a spate of losing teams, the Jets are in position to pick up a wild-card berth out of the AFC East. Everyone’s happy. Everyone but Mark Sanchez. Jets (+1.5)

Baltimore @ Chicago (1 p.m.)

Every week we feel wrong picking against the Ravens, and every week we’re right to do so. Bears (-3)

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (1 p.m.)

We can all rest easy knowing that Cincinnati will do something ridiculous in this game, but that it won’t be enough to cover this spread. Browns (+6)

Washington @ Philadelphia (1 p.m.)

Whatever happens here, it will have very little to do with defence. Eagles (-3.5)

Detroit @ Pittsburgh (1 p.m.)

Detroit is going to win the NFC North, and then what the hell do we do? Lions (-2)

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (1 p.m.)

Just one win on Monday Night and you can coast for a bit. Good news for Tampa. Falcons (-1.5)

Arizona @ Jacksonville (1 p.m.)

The Arizona defensive line looks frightening right now, and the Jags did manage to take a winless season off the docket. Cardinals (-7)

Oakland @ Houston (1 p.m.)

We’ll buy that the Texans are due after seven straight losses, but not at this price. Raiders (+7)

San Diego @ Miami (4:05 p.m.)

What is it with teams in Florida? Did they pass a by-law or something? A badness by-law? Chargers (-1.5)

San Francisco @ New Orleans (4:25 p.m.)

The Saints should fear San Francisco after an embarrassing loss to the Panthers, but New Orleans doesn’t fear anything at home. Saints (-3)

Green Bay @ NY Giants (4:25 p.m.)

After earning $15M off the strength of one good game, QB Matt Flynn returns to Green Bay. We’re not hopeful. Giants (-6)

Minnesota @ Seattle (4:25 p.m.)

The Seahawks pull out of their mid-season trough, which consisted of winning close ones instead of winning blowouts. Vikings (+13)

Kansas City @ Denver (8:30 p.m.)

Peyton Manning wins in the thin air, but at what cost? If he goes down here, a bunch of people ought to lose their jobs. Broncos (-8)

New England @ Carolina (Mon., 8:30 p.m.)

It isn’t much fun to watch, but Carolina staking a claim as the most dangerous team in the league right now. This will be the nightmare wild-card match-up. Panthers (-2.5)

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