A new study produced by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) has found that the Greenland Ice Sheet is softening up faster than expected. The study shows that surface melt water absorbs heat and sunlight then transfers that energy into the heart of Greenland’s ice sheets resulting in sagging and more rapid movement, not just at ice sheet edges, but deep within interior glaciers.

Over the past decade, researchers found that the speed of ice motion at the edge of Greenland’s vast ice sheets had increased resulting in larger flows into the ocean. Now, ice motion deep within Greenland’s interior is also found to have sped up. The study compared the rates of ice flow during 2000 to 2001 with a period from 2005 to 2008. The results were alarming:

“Through satellite observations, we determined that an inland region of the Sermeq Avannarleq Glacier, 40 to 60 miles from the coast, is flowing about 1.5 times faster than it was about a decade ago,” said Thomas Phillips, lead author of the new paper and a research associate at the time of the study with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

In 2000-2001, the inland segment was flowing at about 40 meters (130 feet) per year; in 2007-2008, that speed was closer to 60 meters (200 feet) per year.

At first, researchers were at a loss as to what had caused this extra ice motion. So Phillips and his team developed an advanced model to help determine how energy was being transported into the deep ice at Greenland’s heart. What they found was that melt water from the surface transfers heat energy deep into the ice sheet causing it to deform and flow faster like melting butter.

As is usual with past science on ice sheets, early models and studies concluded that it would take as long as centuries to millennia for the ice sheets to respond to surface warming. The CIRES study discovered rapid ice sheet response mere decades after the initial forcing — a blink of an eye in geological time. The AGU has accepted the CIRES study and published it for review here.

Researchers were troubled by the amount of melt water they were observing on the ice sheet’s surface. Much of this water later disappeared through great holes and chasms tunneling deep into the ice sheet. Researchers suspected this mechanism was transferring solar energy beyond the ice sheet surface and was likely affecting melt and rate of motion. The new model produced by the CIRES study provides confirmation to this observation.

Ice sheet rate of response is a key aspect of climate sensitivity. Current estimates for Earth surface temperature change assume a slow rate of ice sheet response. Rapid ice sheet response, as hinted at in this study and as observed during the past two decades, would result in far more unstable weather and climate conditions during rapid ice sheet melt (with greater swings between hot and cold in regions that may be far removed from the ice sheet) and a more rapid increase in global temperatures once compounding albedo loss occurred.

Current Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) models account for only half of total long term warming due to an assumption that ice sheets will be slow to respond. If ice sheets respond faster, as indicated by this study and by recent observations, then the total Earth Systems Sensitivity temperature may be reached more rapidly. An Earth Systems Sensitivity for current levels of greenhouse gasses, at around 400 ppm, is probably about 3 degrees Celsius long-term. Such warming is enough to melt both Greenland and West Antarctica and probably a portion of Antarctica before Earth Systems Equilibrium is achieved. Total sea level rise in such a scenario is likely to approach as much as a 75 foot height at termination. The possibility that this may happen faster than previously expected is cause for serious concern.

Based on observations of increasing ice sheet melt and motion, I have estimated that sea level will increase by between 5 and 15 feet this century (depending on rate of greenhouse gas accumulation). This observation is faster than the IPCC case which estimates about 3 feet and James Hansen who estimates between 6 and 10 feet. My rationale for this rate of rise is based on a meta-analysis that includes the assumption that the human forcing is far faster than rates of forcing increase in the geological past. It is also based on an observation that sea level increased by as much as 10 feet per century at the end of the last glacial period. Hansen’s estimates are consistent with rates of melt observed at the end of the last ice age and mine assume that the speed of human forcing will result in added effects.

The CIRES study provides yet one more observation and related modeling consistent with a far faster than expected rate of ice sheet response. It is likely that we will know within the next couple of decades how this accelerated response translates to rates of ice sheet discharge and related sea level rise. Lastly, it is important to note that geological evidence is not consistent with steady rates of discharge and sea level rise. Unfortunately, major melt events have happened in great pulses that are consistent with catastrophic out-flow events. Such large events would result in serious risks for communities in wide areas surrounding the ice sheets. Tsunami-like melt pulses, therefore, cannot be ruled out. And the high volume of cold water such outbursts deliver to surrounding oceans and environments is also likely to be highly disruptive to established weather and ocean circulation patterns.

It is important to bring these observations to light as the more rapid ice sheet response rates indicated in the CIRES study and by observation heighten the risk for such events.

Initial estimates suggest that the Arctic may be home to an estimated 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil and gas deposits, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. These riches have become newly accessible and attractive, thanks to retreating sea ice, a lengthening summer drilling season, and new exploration technologies.

Then there are the minerals. Now, longer summers are providing additional time to prospect mineral deposits, and retreating sea ice is opening deep-water ports for their export. Alaska has more than 150 prospective deposits of rare-earth elements, and if the state were its own country, it would rank in the top ten in global reserves for many of these minerals. And all these assets are just the beginning. The Arctic has only begun to be surveyed. Once the digging starts, there is every reason to expect that, as often happens, even greater quantities of riches will be uncovered.

The coming Arctic boom will involve more than just mining and drilling. The region’s Boreal forests of spruces, pines, and firs account for eight percent of the earth’s total wood reserves, and its waters already produce ten percent of the world’s total fishing catch. Converted tankers may someday ship clean water from Alaskan glaciers to southern Asia and Africa.

The Arctic’s unique geography is an asset unto itself. Viewed from the top of the globe, the region sits at the crossroads of the world’s most productive economies; Icelandair has started offering circumpolar service between Reykjavik, Anchorage, and St. Petersburg, and planned underwater telecommunications cables will link Northeast Asia, the northeastern United States, and Europe. The Arctic’s high latitudes make the region a good place to expand existing ground stations for satellites in polar orbits. With some of the world’s most powerful tides, the Arctic has spectacular hydropower potential, and its geology holds tremendous capacity for geothermal energy, as evidenced by Iceland’s geothermal-powered aluminum smelting industry. Cool temperatures also make the Arctic an attractive place to construct data-storage centers, like the one Facebook is building in northern Sweden. A vault dug into the cool bedrock of the Svalbard Islands stores hundreds of thousands of plant seeds for preservation…

As the sea ice melts, once-fabled shipping shortcuts are becoming a reality…

…Climate change is transforming the Arctic from a geopolitical afterthought into an epic bounty ripe for this century’s entrepreneurs…

T.O.O.

Robert,
Meanwhile, I have been looking at the area and extent graphs on the Arctic Roos website and it appears that both are tracking steeply downward. Especially the area graph which has a new button hook straight down. Looking at these graphs, I am beginning to think that by August 1, we will be seeing new records broken (for that day at least). If that happens, then I can’t see a bright future for any decent recovery for the foreseeable future. If such a cold summer at the top of the world as we have had this summer can still produce record-breaking low extents and areas, then the ice must be razor thin and extremely unhealthy.