Monday, July 20, 2015

I'm settled into a nice session, around $800 deep at $1/3, playing against two regs with $300 each. These are competent, thinking regs.

Tight reg 1 in EP raises to $15, gets called by thinking reg 2 and me (5h4h), in addition to 3 other players - we see a Td9dTc flop with $90 in the pot.

Original raiser leads for $30 and gets called after some thought by reg 2, when action lands on me. I think about what I'm going to do. While I'm thinking, I get the 3 strap hangers to folding out of turn, returning whatever action I take back to reg 1, but I still have yet to act. Yes, that's right - they folded while waiting for my anticipated raise... My decisions are a bit easier now, having knowledge that I'm against 2 regs and no Tx hands by the 3 folders. Reg 1 rarely has a Tx hand because she opened EP - she's rarely (if ever) opening AT, let alone a lesser hand baring TT. Moreover, TT is not likely to lead this flop - drawing hands can really only call (i.e. no Tx hands available). Reg 2 is most likely that drawing hand - he paused for a good long time before making the call - likely deciding between raising and calling but barring raising because of the paired board. I come to the conclusion that I should put in a healthy pot sized raise here - I raise to $115 - it will fold reg 1's [expected] JJ+, and should fold reg 2's draws. If reg 2 doesn't fold on the flop, then although I sweat a whole bunch of bad turns, I can possibly push him off the turn but I do think it's likely he'll fold my large raise on the flop. Thoughts?
Click to see results

I wound up putting in $115, only to be shoved on for $300 by reg 1. Reg 2 folded and I was left wondering in amazement before folding. Ouch! After a bit of table talk, she let on that she flopped 9's full and was fearful of being sucked out on by Tx, exactly what I was representing... Oh well - sometimes you succeed in a clever move, sometimes you fail. It seems I fail more often than not - maybe I should stop bluffing :-)

14 comments:

Ok commenting before looking at results and remember I am a tournament player nit a cash player lol. Have to ask myself if tight reg 1 is raising UTG how often will he be showing up with AA or KK . The flop is soaking wet with obvious potential straight draws and a flush draw, so will he look at you're raise as coming from a draw and shove that overpair on you? Against one, maybe you might try it, against two,no way. Fold.

As you know this isn't how you beat LLSNL. When playing with a fish they aren't folding AA/KK probably even QQ or JJ. They just aren't. A good player would clearly wonder why in the world you are raising Tx or 99 here (which of course makes it obvious that we should be raising with those exact hands!). But anyway I think you are burning money here.

Brian - I agree I'm burning money against most players, and I'm rarely doing this against most players. I'm only making this move against these kinds of regs who can indeed lay down an overpair to an obvious "bad flop" for them; i.e. if she doesn't flop a boat or Tx, which a very large percentage of the time she won't, then I think this is a good raise to take down a $125 pot. I had a good read on reg 2, and misread reg 1's cbet for weakness...

I like the thought process, but if reg2 ison a draw and calls your raise you have zero equity here. Any KQJ87 or diamond could give reg 2 a made hand...reg1 could be sitting on an overpair and get stubborn or hit....I don't think I risk another $115 on a pure bluff just on an imppulse here...too many bad turns

So if you click the show results, you should be able to see - I had to fold when I raised big. She shoved $300 - and let on that she had flopped a boat and was fearful of a turn / river bigger boat. I still hold that I get folds here a ton of time - much more than she hits her flopped boats...

If she shoved her boat here bc of fear of another person hitting a BIGGER Boat and wasn't lieing, then I (you) should note (as I do in my poker db I keep on my phone) that she plays scared i.e. pushes only her stong hands, and get out of the way. I know a player who does the same meaning if I bet a flop and they raise big I fold but if he just calles I know he has a weak hand that I can value bet or barrel him off of. This person has played this way for the last 2 yrs so I am not too worried about him changing his game. So even though your read was wrong in this case you have very valuable info esp if you play her even just once a month.

Your learned something very important. if she is telling the truth you now know she will push her strong even nut hands in fear of the boogie man. with this knowledge you can get out of the way easier and bluff, value bet her when she doesn't raise you out. I have a player I see at my card room and I play him once a month and he has played this way for 2 years, I have saved money countless times against him, in fact once I saw him confirm this bc another player had TPTK vs his 2 pair and he laid down TPTK and the guy should bottom 2 pair and couldn't figure out how he laid TPTK down. so if anything you now have valuable knowledge for $100