Tuesday, September 21, 2004

A Look Back At 2000 - Part 2

On July 25, 2000 Bush announced Dick Cheney, the man in charge of finding him a running mate, as his running mate. The USA Today/CNN poll recorded a 10 point net gain for Bush, and the Washington Post/ABC poll had the bounce at 8 points. Leading up to the Republican Convention, which began on July 31, Bush/Cheney had an average lead of 7 points, and they left their convention on August 3 with a solid 12 point lead.

This momentum was cut short on August 8 when Al Gore stunned everybody by announcing Joe Lieberman as his running mate. This gave Gore a bounce, allowing him to cut Bush’s lead to 6.5% leading up to the Democratic Convention, which began on August 14. As the convention was going on, it didn’t appear as though Gore was receiving much benefit. On the last day of the convention, a daily tracking poll had Bush’s lead at 5% but after Gore’s acceptance speech that night, and perhaps more importantly, after the kiss, polls showed an impressive jump. In the days following the Democratic Convention, Gore was up an average of 4.5%, a net gain of 11%.

Gore was able to maintain a lead for the rest of August and much of September as a result of convention momentum and negative press for Bush, whether it was his ad that subliminally called Democrats "Rats" or calling a New York Times reporter an asshole when he thought the microphone was off. From September 1-19, Gore had an average lead of 6%. Bush went into damage control mode and with the help of charming appearances on Oprah and Regis and Kathie Lee, he turned the race into a statistical tie. From September 22 to October 2, Gore led by an average of 1%.