I'm Beginning To Think Vinny Wasn't The Problem (P. 2)

Agent,
I agree with you that Bledsoe should have been on the court more. That's not why I'm complaining. I initially complained because I thought the Bledsoe and Caron wasn't a great trade for tus. Meanwhile stat boys try to justify that it was a great trade by using advance stats. Someone actually tried to use advance stats to try and tell me that Dudley is a good defender. Tell me if you watch Dudley play without using advance stats, does he strike you as a good defender?

I've personally never checked much in advanced stats on Dudley's defense. The stats supported what was seen on the court that he was an excellent 3PT shooter, had a good one dribble pull up jumpshot, could utilize a 1-2 dribble jumpshot off a pick, could get to the basket despite nothing special in speed or handles and draw a foul or finish. Also that he could move without the ball and played smart basketball. Now because he isn't doing that (or as well) as a Clipper doesn't mean he never did it, unless someone went and video edited his previous 4 seasons to make it look like his shots went in (Phoenix GM?)

Defensively from watching, he's looked average to above average every year in Phoenix. No one mistook him for a shut down defensive player, just a system one, smart defense, never going to be athletic enough to lock anyone up. He directed his man to the right spots, didn't foul excessively, stayed in front for the most part, competed on the defensive glass, but can be slow on close-outs, struggles keeping up around screens at times and will get beat by pure speed once in a while. He's not the first non-athletic guy to be able to play defense. Again, because he's been worse as a. Clipper, especially on the glass doesn't mean he never did it.

That's why my thought was to back him up with Aminu as a bench SF/PF to make up for different matchups. Complimentary players!

The advanced stats said he was an average level defender and wasn't very good defensively at SG but better at SF.

Doc didn't get him or think he could defend because advanced stats told him so. Doc doesn't use much advanced stats from what I gather because no one doing so would sign Mullens. He believed it because of the games his team played against him, but sample size of two games / year and the matchups (Pierce isn't a super quick guy) obviously make that a poor way to judge, but that's life.

In terms of the trade, it was about finding the positive. The perceived value of Bledsoe by most was that he is just a wild all athletic player who can't shoot, can't run an offense, turns it over a lot, can't produce the same in more minutes and isn't special in a league filled with a lot of solid PG's. The advanced stats disagreed with that, but if that was the general just watching view of him, the expected trade value isn't that high and the advanced stats guys will try and buy low.

Now do you know who is a big advanced stats guy?

McDonough, 33, is another young, new-age NBA executive cut from the same cloth as Daryl Morey, Sam Presti and Rob Hennigan. He has spent virtually his entire career in various roles of player evaluation and relies strongly on advanced metrics and stat analysis.

You know another "stats guy", but a coach? The guy who has figured out how to get Jordan Crawford to be valuable, expanded Sullinger's role past what Doc would have (let him shoot three's), changed Bass's scoring areas away from just shooting mid-range jumpers? Brad Stevens in Boston.

But as far as the in-depth statistical analysis, Stevens gave only a peek as to not forfeit an edge. Cannon sends Stevens a 10-page e-mail breaking down and analyzing the numbers after every Butler game. The report takes 10 to 12 hours for Cannon to put together.

Cannon's greatest value is with lineup analysis, as Stevens terms his work "unreal." "It includes every player, pairs of players, groups of three, big lineups, small lineups, etc.," Stevens said. Cannon will also include the offensive and defensive efficiency of Butler's players from previous matchups with an opponent, which Stevens said, "Will help me determine probable sub patterns, late game lineups, etc."

You know what other "stats guy" is making a young team look a lot better than one would expect? Rob Hennigan in Orlando.

Guess what two teams kept being mentioned as suitors for Bledsoe? Orlando and Phoenix with their "stat guys".

The problem is that people create this false characterization of a "stat guy" as someone who sits around and figures out formulas and has never watched a game or every played basketball. Clearly it is false, but that's the means of trying to discredit when one can't counter with anything concrete. Try to make it seem like the other people are deficient in some area instead of showing your own credibility and holistic understanding / analysis.

"Stat guys" are generally watching as much or more film than all the other people and then analyzing a lot of numbers and trying to figure out how they fit. Do the numbers say what I see and vice versa. If not, why? Where is the discrepancy? What can I adjust for, what am I missing, what are the numbers missing? It's not one or the other.

If the numbers disagree with what you think, they aren't wrong, but the interpretation of the numbers might be off. Numbers also need analysis.

If your eyes disagree with what the numbers say, they aren't automatically, wrong, they could be, but it doesn't mean the numbers are wrong cause you are just so great at analyzing and see everything (no one does).

For example, numbers say a player is a below average defender, but your eyes see him playing good man to man defense in isolation and wonder how that makes sense. Well what about off ball? Since most focus more on the current action, you might miss a lot of off ball mistakes in real time. You'll miss that he helps poorly, doesn't compete on the glass, gets lost in off ball defense, doesn't get around screens well, ball watches too much and looses his man. All those little things override the fact that he does well on the 15% of the time he's isolated on defense because 85% of the time he's playing a different type of defense.

That 15% of the time when he's on an island he looks great and defensive perception gets based off the small part of his overall defense because it is the most visible. The numbers on the other hand are just summing up all of his defense. So now when you see that number you have two options:

1) numbers are stupid, they don't get it

2) why are the numbers saying that, what might I be missing

My interpretation of what is happening might be wrong, it means I'm are affected by sample sizes, streaks, selective viewing, and it also means there's some analysis of the how and why needed that explains why me and some number disagrees and where they might meet and how the numbers can help,me analyze better in the future.

jarca

12/14/2013 - 03:59 PM PST

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^^^^ best GM is spurs and they have the best scouts not stat boys.

Spurs, Lakers, Heat, Detroit and Dallas all own championship without stat guys. once in awhile a young up and coming team will out perform their expectations. That's what Boston and Phoenix are doing.

No wonder we got ripped off in the Bledsoe trade since Phoenix were able to pump Dudley as this stud.

pageC4

12/14/2013 - 04:22 PM PST

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the team with biggest statistics input is Memphis. They hired John Hollinger to have a sizeable amount of input in personnel moves. if I'm not mistaken trading Rudy Gay was his idea. The grizzlies are the experiment so judging on their success or failure teams will either follow suit or stay away from this approach.

Agent0

12/14/2013 - 07:11 PM PST

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^^^^ best GM is spurs and they have the best scouts not stat boys.
Spurs, Lakers, Heat, Detroit and Dallas all own championship without stat guys. once in awhile a young up and coming team will out perform their expectations. That's what Boston and Phoenix are doing.
No wonder we got ripped off in the Bledsoe trade since Phoenix were able to pump Dudley as this stud.

Well if you have the greatest players you leeway is much bigger. Not sure what you arguing. No one is saying that you can't win without some crazy analytics, so why are you arguing that?....

Coach used stats to implement game plan. Nothing new. YOU on the other hand use stats SOLELY to judge /compare player

CP3Heliflopter

12/14/2013 - 08:54 PM PST

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That Is just a load of nonsense. The lack of heart thing is a nice narrative but it really isn't substantiated by anything.

The largest problem during this trip was terrible shooting. The only game where I would say we lacked "heart" was the game against Atlanta.

During the Nets game we were coming off a back to back on the road vs a fully healthy, well rested Nets team. The Nets when healthy are a lot better than their record. D. Will and Pierce were out for a lot of their season and so were a lot of other guys.

Agent0

12/14/2013 - 09:04 PM PST

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All you did is change the subject first of all. You originally said that these successful teams don't use analytics. They do, not just for game situations, but for player acquisitions. You were way off on that, especially in relation to San Antonio.

I do that huh? Really? Here's what you need to do. Go and find the posts where I used stats to "solely" judge players and then we can talk because that's a bunch of BULL and you know it.

Just because you keep trying to say this doesn't make it true. You just go around in circles then have nothing to say, then try and make some strawman argument that you know isn't true about how I ONLY use numbers.

It's hilarious really...

jarca

12/14/2013 - 09:13 PM PST

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Did I say analytic? I said your favorite advance stats lol. You changed the subject yourself to fit your agenda. Lol

Agent0

12/14/2013 - 09:19 PM PST

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Advanced stats are part of analyzing, they are a component. The terms are sometimes used interchangeably depending on the context.

...but again, instead of actually responding, you are just dodging. Oh jarca...

jarca

12/14/2013 - 09:43 PM PST

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Not changing but there's a difference into saying hey Bosh shoot more here because you're really effective on this area or force so and so to this area because he doesn't have a good shooting. That's what a lot of coaches already do.

Me-Dudley is terrible and keeps getting burned on defense. Damn that guy can't dribble. Reddick plays high school type of defense where he's always on the right spot but he doesn't alter the shots.

You- according to advance stat a Dudley and Redick are good defenders

See the difference

CP3Heliflopter

12/14/2013 - 09:49 PM PST

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Actually according to advance stats they are averagish defenders. Redick has been average this season. Dudley has been terrible but his numbers are down and terrible across the board not just defense.

Its funny(not really) how every starting SF that has come here recently has suddenly got injured and regressed and never recovered.

Gomes, Butler and so far Dudley....

Agent0

12/14/2013 - 09:49 PM PST

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Yea, except I've never said that or anything like that, lol

I have said things like "a certain player can create, but their lack of effectiveness in doing so makes the value of their creating non beneficial to a good offense, so on good teams they won't create. Then similarly on those good teams you can usually get less broadly skilled players who can play the limited role that more skilled player will be relegated to on on a good team as well or better, but for much cheaper". I've said that some guys don't maintain defensive intensity with increased offensive load.

So how is what I haven't said relevant again?

I've said Redick is an average defender because he is in the right spots, knows the schemes and works, so despite not being able to contest effectively, consistently being in the right spots averages out his defense. Still his length sucked. My first complain was that he had the same reach as Bledsoe, so Bledsoe can be just as effective defensively (more because he's more athletic)

I've said Dudley is average to above average, so why make stuff up jarca?

pageC4

12/14/2013 - 10:40 PM PST

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I was telling my wife that JJ Redick has matched my expectations while Dudley hasn't. Having these two for Bledsoe is a slight downgrade but only on account of how Dudley has been playing this year. If, just if Dudley can play like he did tonight throughout the season then Dudley + Redick > Bledsoe. Of course, that's just my view of things

With as good as Bledsoe is playing I doubt we would have gotten a package anyone of us would feel was worth it. I look at Orlando, who felt so high of Dwight Howard that they turned their nose up at other packages from Brooklyn that would have made them better, but instead ended up getting poo-poo platter from the Lakers.

But what can happen is if Redick and Dudley play elite basketball and take us to the promsied land (or hell, even a western conference finals) then I think we won't dwell too much on the loss of Bledsoe but on two ancillary players that made a deep push possible.

jarca

12/14/2013 - 11:01 PM PST

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You said Dudley is above average defender? Hmm

Playing defense in spurts in Phoenix he looks ok but I would classify him below Redick in the defense department

Blake is a Star. CP3 is a Superstar. Let's get Blake to Superstar level, slowly and surely.

DJ isn't a star, but he's improving.

prokreation

12/15/2013 - 02:25 AM PST

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Let's judge Vinny Vs. Doc in the PLAYOFFS. That's where it matters.

CP3Heliflopter

12/15/2013 - 12:02 PM PST

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Ok is about right. That Is still a lot better than he is right now.

Normally he is a bit slow but right now he is moving like a snail due to injury and its not getting better since he isn't getting rested.

Right now he is bricking shots he normally makes, unable to rebound anything(usually he can get at least 3 boards) and playing shitty defense.

The fact that Barnes, Bullock and Redick got injured also screwed him over in terms of getting rest. He is injured but not to the point where he can't play like the other guys.

CP3Heliflopter

12/15/2013 - 12:05 PM PST

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Btw the way the main reason we have been losing lately is because Willie Green and Dudley have been playing worse than D league scrubs. Especially Willie. Crawford has also been pretty poor and inconsistent overall during our road trip.

If Willie played like he did last season and Dudley played anywhere near his career averages we would have loss two games during this road trip tops probably one.

pageC4

12/15/2013 - 01:01 PM PST

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very true. Despite the current pace of things the ultimate test will be playoffs. that is why despite the glossy record in the regular season our year was a failure. a first round exit to a team you beat 3/4 times in the regular season with home court is an utter failure

Agent0

12/15/2013 - 02:11 PM PST

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He did everything on the ball "ok", that is, average, but he competed on the glass, made hustle plays and that helped him be an above average defender.

I've never said Dudley was a shut down or quick defender. He's a guy that can play defense in a system and be effective, and then the extra effort will give him a boost. That's why I've said he's a high IQ defender, do what the coach says you should do, but he isn't going to go freestyle on defense and be successful.

He has played much worse in every aspect of basketball this season than he's every player in his career. I honestly don't know where you go these ideas of my opinions about these players from to be honest with you.

Great decision on Doc to insert Crawford in the starting line up. Collison with the green light to score can boost his confidence a bit

jarca

12/15/2013 - 03:25 PM PST

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Ok we kinda agree on Redick. However Dudley grabbed long rebounds in Phoenix and still does the same thing in LAC. You can argue that DJ and BG occupy the paint but chasing after long rebounds don't catapult you to an above average defender in my book

A_DOG_NAMED_BUD

12/15/2013 - 06:13 PM PST

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That's the problem, our "Big 3" isn't a Big 3. I do like DJ's improvement from last season, but I highly doubt DJ can be the 3rd best player on a championship team. His overall defense is still too weak. Our third highest paid player is a glorified Reggie Evan's type who can only score on dunks. Plus his style does not fit well with Blake. We need a big who can spread the floor to make room for Blake to operate (maybe a Pau Gasol or Spencer Hawes type player. If we also got a Thaddeus Young type SF, then would could down on the dribble penetration into the paint, making life easier for whatever big men we have. If our wings can defend, then we won't have to rely on a center as the last line of defense.

pageC4

12/15/2013 - 06:32 PM PST

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There's a lot of problems with our starting lineup for sure. But I think the main point raised by CF86 was that the top three players are still in the lineup. We shouldn't be struggling the way we have.

pageC4

12/15/2013 - 06:44 PM PST

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I do have to admit though that the big three of Paul, Griffin, and DJ are nowhere on the elite level of Pierce, Garnet, and Allen, or Wade, James, and Bosh. When you think of our big three we are a slightly better version of the Knicks Melo, Stoudemire, and Felton.

We don't have quite the well rounded players that Boston and Miami acquired when they assembled their respected championship runs. Rather than being a big three per se we may just be able to put together a quiet core like the Mavericks did a few years ago. One that had a top star (Dirk), a solid #2 (Terry), defensive center (chandler), and a lot of role players that provided many intangibles (Barrea, Kidd, etc.).

When i see this team on all cylinders we can be a pretty balanced team like that Dallas Championship team, but big three probably not, especially because of DJ.

tense2

12/15/2013 - 06:51 PM PST

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We have a very big 1 and that's the future HOF'r Paul. DJ has stepped up his game so far this season. Bake needs to really step up his game to a level where he can begin to be talked about in "Superstar" terms.

A_DOG_NAMED_BUD

12/15/2013 - 06:56 PM PST

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I'm not sure how much of a balanced team we actually are. We do have some nice role player, Barnes when he's healthy is a nice scorer and decent defender, Redick is an efficient scorer and not merely a 3pt shooter like I originally thought, Collison has been a solid PG in the league who's averaged double digit points for his career, and Jamison is solid scorer but obviously at the tail end of his career. Unfortunately, none of the player mention or anyone else on the team is really a defensive player. DJ attempts to be he's far from an elite defender. CP3 gets steals, but strong-fast guards give him lots of trouble on defense. Once Redick gets healthy our offense should be fine, but I'm really worried about the defense. It's difficult to be balanced when you don't have many good defensive players.

Agent0

12/15/2013 - 06:58 PM PST

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In terms of "big three", I don't know if it is that DJ can't be the third best player, or that DJ can't be making $11M on a championship team. I think the latter is the bigger deal maybe?

Of course the team still doesn't truly have two "superstars", Blake is a very good player, but he's still developing, but a well built team around Paul and Blake will be formidable.

I felt he was slightly above average, and he also grabbed offensive rebounds in Phoenix, so I'm assuming Doc's get back on defense is also affecting that aspect of his rebounding. He was grabbing about 1.2 in 27 mins as a Sun, now he grabs 0.6 as a Clipper.

...but then almost everyone but DJ has their offensive rebound rate down, so it probably is what it is.

A_DOG_NAMED_BUD

12/15/2013 - 07:10 PM PST

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Referring back to the original topic of Vinny not being the problem, I do think he was definitely part of the problem. Yes, this team does have its holes and weakness, but I would hate to see how much worse we would look with Vinny as coach this season. I do believe that DJ's improvement has been largely Doc's coaching and guidance. Vinny may not have been the only problem, but anyone who would choose him over Doc Rivers might be a little "off" to put it politely.

toohipcliptoslip

12/15/2013 - 08:12 PM PST

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As far as DJ

9.8 ppg and 12.8 reb and 2 blocks ain't chopped liver. It's called DNDD, damned near a double double. When he gets his jumper going he'll be unstoppable. Isn't he 2 for 2? His FT's average is 42% over his career. This year is not an aberration.

tense2

12/15/2013 - 08:18 PM PST

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Yep, DJ's not the problem.

pageC4

12/15/2013 - 08:22 PM PST

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as the year was going on our defense was gettin better. your right in that our teams isn't as balanced as that Dallas team, but I think if healthy and if on pace we could possibly achieve that. I saw it against GSW and Houston, man we were balling. but yes, the defense needs to get better

tense2

12/15/2013 - 08:54 PM PST

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And it has been. Now the offense needs to rebound. We are now 7th in ORtg and 10th in DRtg.

But its all about the playoffs. If we get bounced in the first round, Doc isn't any better. No matter what anyone wants to say.

Kingkanyon

12/17/2013 - 04:24 AM PST

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I'll Take J.J. over Mayo, not over Derozan. It's easy to look bad on Defense when you have no backline defense, you put him on the Clippers it would be a different story, just look how we can hide J.J. and Crawfords deficiency's on Defense.

CP3Heliflopter

12/17/2013 - 09:40 AM PST

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^Derozan can't shoot for dog **** and plays worse defense than Redick and has a terrible contract. Yuck!

Agent0

12/17/2013 - 11:42 AM PST

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They have pretty good weapons though, better shooting. Part of their offensive ability is that they are 2nd in FT% at 81.5%. Clippers haven't really been healthy either.

Blake - 66.7%

Jordan - 40.0%

Aldridge - 79.4%

Lopez - 78.7%

Jordan gets intentional fouled, so not all his FT's are drawn, but if Blake and DJ shot 78%, the Clippers would score 2.6 more PPG! That's crazy. It still wouldn't make us Portland good because they are healthier and also shooting 42% from 3PT range, but it would make the Clippers jump from 4th to 2nd in offensive efficiency.

Now let's say Blake could also shoot like Aldridge from mid-range, well that's more spacing, that means his personal efficiency goes up, team is better on offense. But everyone has a weakness.