Only one of Kozuka and Takahashi will probably make it as they battle each other at NHK. Song's chance are slim at TEB. So likely only one of the last 3 will be at the GPF. If I have to bet, my money is on Kozuka. #4, #5, and either #6 or #8 may need tie breakers for 2 spots.

The top 3 and #7 will face each other at TEB so Helgesson can be counted out. Kostner will be doing her 3rd event so she may just be the spoiler for either Czinsy or Tuk depending on Suzuki's performance. I'm including Leonove from among those with 9 points because she has two more chances, facing Asada and Sotnikova at COR, her 3rd event. Before that she will compete with Suzuki, Assada, Wagner at NHK, likely spoiling Wagner's chances.

The top 4 are almost certain to get to the Final. #7 has to face #1 and #4 at TEB so likely to add 11 points and #8 and #9 have probably no chance at all competing with #2, #3 and #5 at COR. The Dance Final entries are virtually determined at this point, i.e. the top 6 from the list. eta. Thanks to Wallylutz pointing it out, I/P has been added who are yet to start competing but could possibly knock the Shibs from the Final.

They haven't started yet but will be at the NHK. There is a chance they could beat the Shibs which they did when they won Junior worlds 2 seasons ago over the Americans. If they beat the Shibs in the NHK and the Americans ended up 3rd behind W/P and I/K, the Shibs will likely miss the GPF.

Hanyu can make it to the GPF if he wins at Cup of Russia. Brandon Mroz has not competed yet and could potentially make it to the GPF. So there are 10 people in play still for the Men, not 8. It's improbable that Song will finish higher than 3rd at TEB, so he's probably out, and Brandon Mroz probably won't make it either. I predict a 2nd place finish for Hanyu at Cup of Russia, which means he wouldn't make it. I predict a 5th place finish for Abbott at Cup of Russia, which means he also does not make it.

I would be dissapointed if Abbott came only 5th in Russia given his strong start to the season. I would like to think he can get himself back on track this season. He will have to do with only 2 U.S spots and Lysacek maybe showing up at Nationals.

I had him 3rd or 4th there too. I hope he keeps his act together. He is still one of the most talented skaters and should probably actually win in Russia, even with the pretty good field, if he skates his best. The only current skater a strong Abbott cant touch is Chan, and maybe Kozuka if he hits his quads and Abbott doesnt try them.

Leonova out with a 4th Place, Wagner out with a 4th Place, Nagasu out with a 5th place

I included Imai (who I fudged 9 pts for 4th place) with the possibility that Asada or Sotnikova bomb to atleast 4th, and Imai wins/gets second. So far, the top 4 are locked in. All of the other medalists so far have placed low enough that they are out (the other 4th place skaters have skated all of their competitions).

So, yay to an American in GPF 2 years in a row! We had a rough couple years before that.

Assuming Sotnikova and Asada qualify, Nagasu will be in the alternate position even if Imai is 3rd in Russia. If that happened, Nagasu, Imai, Wagner and Leonova will all have 20 points, but Mirai has the highest individual placement (2nd) of the 4, so that breaks the tie.

Actually, Leonova is skating at COR, so if she can somehow place 1st or 2nd, and her COR points count, then she's in the GPF if Mao beats Adelina.