Robry825 Daily Gas Flows- Comments

Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

.....NATGAS: Waiting on tonights & Tuesdays actuals, EIA-weighted storage modeling is consistent with a draw of 39 BCF. .....Capacity/Gas-Flow Modeling (6 days complete), has to wait until Monday nights runs to finalize, though it looks like it .....might be aiming at a 46-47 BCF draw.

.....Baseline for last week came in at -29 (Draw), meaning a -39 would be 10 BCF to-the-bullish, while a 46-47 draw would be .....17 or 18 BCF to-the-bullish.

.....As discussed in previous posts, my own modeling has turned to a solution implying error in the EIA data, and is extrapolating .....an overweighting in producing-region salt-dome storage in order to mimick the weekly & monthly EIA reports. This causes .....a skewing between EIA storage modeling and the more realistic Capacity / Gas-Flow modeling. The EIA nailed the skew- .....inclusive modeling in the producing region the past few weeks (including last week).

.....However, in last weeks EIA Thursday-release, there was a 12 BCF miss in the Eastern region, which opens the door for the .....possibility of a 12 BCF downward revision in the East this week, or a total draw-plus-prior-week-draw-addition of 51 BCF. .....We shall see if that happens. .....Last thursdays EIA report (keeping Fridays comment up due to the extreme nature of the report) had an18 BCF withdrawal .....12 BCF short of my own EIA modeling, and 28 BCF short of Capacity / gas-flow modeling. Internally, the report was the EIA .....second lowest-quality report since it picked up the task of weekly reporting from the AGA.

.....How bad was the report? Immaging going to church one day and puting $21 in the collection plate, then a week later hearing .....that the Church took in a TOTAL of $18 that day. You know that... 1: Either everyone else didn't contribute or their contributions .....were lost, and... 2: three of your $21 disappeared. This is literally what happened, except that we are talking BCF's rather than .....dollars.

.....Specifically, 45.9% of the nations stored gas reports publicly on the internet. You can count that. And if you did, you would have .....counted 21 BCF withdrawn. That would mean (if the EIA's 18 BCF was correct) that the other 54.1% of the EIA's data (that is .....not publicly reported) was an injection of 3 BCF. A near statistical impossibility as much of the non-public data (behind that 3 BCF .....injection) was in the core of the cold, such as NICOR (Chicago), MICHCON (Michigan), Detroit Edison "Washington 10" (Detroit), .....Northern natural gas (Upper midwest), CME Energy, etc. (All of which, though their exact storage is non-public, have either gas- .....flows or gas inflows reported... which pointed towards strong withdrawals).

.....No hedging on this one... The EIA's 18 BCF was statistically impossible. And if they pump the rift between EIA and capacity modeling .....much more, there will come a point when the EIA's estimate of total storage becomes statistically impossible, and the EIA's data ....looses all mathamatical credibility.

.....Another view, of that 45.9% of storage that reports publicly, the 18 BCF EIA withdrawal translated into a 21 BCF withdrawal to that .....45.9%, leaving them with 1,784 BCF still in the ground. Thus, each BCF of EIA gas translated (last week) into 1.1666x the EIA. If that .....1.1666x carried through the whole of their 1,784 BCF in the ground, they run bone-dry after the EIA accumulates 1529 BCF in ......withdrawals(1,784 / 1.1666 = 1529)... meaning at 2382 BCF (EIA) the publicly-reporting group (that 45.9% group) is empty!

......For the week, I would mentally count it as a 28 BCF EIA miss... 12 BCF in the eastern region (one-time), and 16 BCF in the ......producing region.

.....OIL: Will not have anything to comment on for a while as patterns that were being watched broke down and have yet to re-immerge. The .....raw data will continue to be posted on the chance that someone else (with better insight than I) may be able to see something in it.

.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: Same-old-same-old... business-side of US economy retreating while consumer-side inches .....forward on the heals of the US general elections which gave (consumer-leaning) Democrates 2/3's of gowernment .....(Presidency plus Senate) and (industry/investment-leaning) Republicans 1/3rd of government (House of Representatives).

.....Beneith the numbers, still like the internals and think the economy could run if government doesn't get foolish. Biggest .....danger is a Fiscal-Cliff "scare-em-up" in the media which could undermine the economy.

.....On the political side (Again, leaving Fridays comments up due to the important-ness of this), I still think the Dem's And Rep's .....should wrap this up by December 1st. If a group of scientists discovered an asteroid heading to earth to impact on January 1st .....you know darn well the politicians (or whoever) would not wait until December 31st to decide what to do. A decision would be .....made in days, if not hours.

.....Same could be said here... if the "Fiscal-Cliff" nonsense waits until after Christmas, it is only because someone wants it to. .....If they wait to December 31st, in my opinion it crosses the border from foolish-irrisponsibility into treason. Get it done by .....December 1st people! Todays economic numbers...