Sunday, November 02, 2008

McCain Polling Analysis in Florida and Pennsylvania

Over at Hedgehog Report, they have an interesting analysis of polling in both Florida and Pennsylvania. It is in the usual terse style over there by posters and commenters but the analysis is interesting nonetheless.

ARG put out polls for these two states and had Obama ahead in Florida:

Well this poll had Democrats +8 (should be even), then the poll had Obama ahead in Indies by 4 (that might be close), but then had Obama winning democrats 85-10 while McCain won the Republicans 89-7. Well in 2004 Kerry was 85-14 among democrats and I look for obama to crack 20% lose of D’s in Florida. So McCain is ahead in FL in my opinion.

I think this analysis is pretty astute. The Democrats have never enjoyed an eight point advantage in Florida. Yes, if you believe in the One and Hope and Change, you might think the demographics of FL have changed drastically in the last 2 years, but that is a pretty suspect assumption. The argument about the PUMA effect is the same as the national one but there is no reason that that wouldn't be seen in FL as well.

ARG has Obama at 51 McCain 46. So why be happy. 1st Party Ratio is 53D 41R 6I. Well it should be about 43D-38R-18I or about a +3 D move. Then ARG has it +19 among Indies for Obama. I think there is a real stretch with Puma and Bradley effects. Finally Obama is 83-14 among democrats. RAS at Obama at 75% and frankly I might split the difference at 78% or 79% when the dust settles. Kerry did 85-15 without the primary from heck with Clinton plus bradley effect.

I encourage you to go back and read about the primary between Clinton & Obama in PA. Plus look at the map of Philly from the 2004 general election and the 2008 Dem. primaries. The white areas of South Philly and North Philly went heavily for Kerry and Clinton. Obama will probably be behind the Kerry vote in Philly. No it will not be the wine and cheese suburbs where Obama loses, but those in Delaware county where those working class catholics and older whites won’t pull the lever for Barack Hussein Obama II

The big thing to note here is again the party affiliation. They are using 53D 41R 6I? Only 6% of PA residents are independents? That is beyond hard to believe. The comparison to Kerry is also very interesting. The poll assumes that Obama's support in PA among Democrats will be identical to the support Kerry saw. But we know that Obama struggled in PA against Clinton. Take into account the following factors.

Obama's infamous rural people "are bitter and just cling to their religion and guns" comment. The NRA has hit this point hard, especially in Pennsylvania.

Murtha's infamous "people in western Pennsylvania are racist" comment. Realizing that was a unwise thing to say about his own constituents, he followed up with the "it is not that they are really racists, they are just stupid and uneducated" apology.

Revelations today that Obama will "tax the coal industry in to bankruptcy." Blue collar Democrats who need the coal industry to survive and support their families just might look elsewhere on election day.

Actual racism.

Given these factors (and number four is despicable but can't be discounted in a demographic analysis) it is very unlikely that Obama will see the same support among Democrats as Kerry.

Analysis like this is always half mathematical, half supposition. But things are certainly close enough that people should not give up hope. Get out and vote. Get a friend to vote. This is not the year to be tired of politics and let others decide for you.