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Subscribe with My Yahoo!Subscribe with NewsGatorSubscribe with My AOLSubscribe with BloglinesSubscribe with NetvibesSubscribe with GoogleSubscribe with PageflakesCabrera and Votto: Two Passing Ships?http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cabrera-and-votto-two-passing-ships/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cabrera-and-votto-two-passing-ships/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 20:25:33 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261895Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto — they’re both cinch future Hall of Famers, as close approximations as any among current major leaguers to the ideal all-around hitter. They have consistently made hard contact to all fields, hit for average and power, and not conceded many free outs to opposing pitchers. And obviously, they’ve done it without any contribution from their legs; it’s been all bat.

Well, here we are, the two are aged 34 and 33, respectively, and the older player has seemingly gone off the rails while Votto appears to have discovered the fountain of youth. What’s the real story? Let’s dig into some granular batted-ball data to get a better feel for their current true-talent levels.

The two tables below show both players’ plate-appearance-frequency and batted ball-quality-data through Tuesday night’s games:

Plate Appearance Frequency Data

Name

POP %

FLY%

LD%

GB%

K%

BB%

Cabrera

0.7%

31.0%

27.9%

40.3%

20.6%

11.0%

Votto

0.3%

39.5%

20.9%

39.3%

11.6%

18.7%

Contact Quality/Overall Performance Data

Name

UNADJ C

U-FLY-A

U-LD-A

U-GB-A

ADJ C

wRC+

PRJ PRD

Cabrera

93

79-160

66-115

73-73

152

96

147

Votto

139

157-133

78-88

81-92

134

166

185

The first table lists each player’s K and BB rates, as well as the breakdown of all of their BIP by category type. For this table, color-coding is used to note significant divergence from league average. Red cells indicate values that are over two full standard deviations higher than league average. Orange cells are over one STD above, yellow cells over one-half-STD above, blue cells over one-half STD below, and black cells over one STD below league average. Ran out of colors at that point. Variation of over two full STD below league average will be addressed as necessary in the text below.

The second table includes each player’s Unadjusted Contact Score. This represents, on a scale where 100 equals league average, the actual production level recorded by each player on balls in play. Basically, it’s their actual performance with the Ks and BBs removed. Their Unadjusted and Adjusted Contact Scores for each BIP category are then listed. Adjusted Contact Score represents the production level that each player “should have” recorded if every batted ball resulted in league-average production for its exit-speed/launch-angle “bucket.” Players assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty are be in red font.

Finally, overall Adjusted Contact Score, actual wRC+ and Projected Production are listed. Projected Production adds back the Ks and BBs to the Adjusted Contact Score data to give a better measure of each player’s true performance level.

Let’s first look at the frequency data. Both, in slightly different ways, retain some truly elite characteristics. Neither player pops ups with any frequency; that’s pretty rare for power hitters. It’s especially notable in Votto’s case. He once possessed an extreme fly-ball tendency, though his fly-ball rate slipped into the average range in 2016 before this year’s upward spike. Cabrera’s fly-ball rate has historically tended to be well above average; not so this season, as it’s almost one-half standard deviation below league average.

Cabrera’s 2017 liner rate is off-the-charts high, and that’s a surprise only because of his paltry overall numbers. His liner rate hasn’t placed below the 64th percentile among MLB regulars going back to 2008, and it has quite often been in the 90s. Votto’s liner rate is actually surprisingly low; since 2008, his liner rate hasn’t placed below the 78th percentile, though it almost certainly will this year.

A quick, vital reminder about liner rates: they tend to be much more volatile than pop-up, fly-ball, or grounder rates. There are, however, a select few hitters who have a true knack for squaring up the baseball. These two clearly have consistently been among that select group.

There have been some key developments with these two players’ K and BB rates this season. From 2010 to -13 and in 2015, Cabrera’s K rate was over one-half STD lower than the average regular. This year, it’s actually in the upper end of the average range.

Votto’s BB rate has been “red” — over two STD higher than league average — every season since 2011. While his K rate has always been solid for a power hitter, it has actually been in the league-average range every season going back to 2008. Until this year, that is. Seemingly out of nowhere, his K rate has plummeted to a level usually reserved for mere slap hitters. When you put the ball in play as often as Votto does, you have a heck of a lot of margin for error with regard to contact authority. Speaking of authority, let’s turn our attention to the second table above.

Amazingly, Cabrera grades out as a slightly below-average offensive performer thus far in 2017. What do the batted-ball numbers tell us, though? A far different story.

Now, Cabrera is certainly getting something worse than league-average contribution from his legs when it comes to taking extra bases; a small portion of the shortfall can be explained by that. The much larger reasons are random chance and his spacious home park. Comerica Park has the lowest exit-speed-adjusted fly-ball park factor in the game at 64.6 (on a scale where 100 equals average), and the No. 29 overall park factor (86.8) as of the All-Star break.

There’s another issue to address with regard to his performance on ground balls. After many years of spraying his grounders hard to all fields, he has become an excessive puller this season. He can now be overshifted in the infield with some confidence. This caps his projected production at its actual .190 AVG-.210 SLG (73 Unadjusted Contact Score) level.

Put it all together, and the grounders are just a small blip; Cabrera’s Adjusted Contact Score of 152 dwarfs his unadjusted mark. Add the K and BB back, and he “should be” slashing .295/.373/.552, much more in line with his career norms.

Now, it’s clear that Cabrera’s health issues are ongoing, and perhaps intensifying. It’s had an impact on his batted-ball authority trends. Last year, his average fly-ball velocity was 94.9 mph (92.9 mph in 2017) and his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was 245 (160 in 2017). That, coupled with the decline in the number of fly balls he’s hitting, has sapped his power.

It’s more than just Comerica or decreases in fly-ball frequency and authority that’s hurt Cabrera. He’s also been hurt by an inability or unwillingness to pull the ball in the air. He’s hit exactly three homers on the road thus far this season. Frequent readers might recall my usage of the term “harvesting”. That’s what I call it when hitters, late in their career, begin focusing on pulling and elevating. They often derive short-term benefits from such an approach. (I often use late-career Raul Ibanez as an example.) Then pitchers find the new holes in the player’s swing and hasten his ultimate decline.

Cabrera’s been the perfect hitter for so long, but some harvesting is overdue. He’s got it backwards right now; he’s pulling too much on the ground and not enough in the air. Reversing the first trend will help his average; the second will help his average and power production. He’s good enough to spray his grounders around again, but he’ll need to be good and healthy to pull the flies.

Right now, unfortunately, Cabrera is a prisoner of his contract and his home park. He’s untradeable, so will need to come up with an approach that works in canyon-esque Comerica. As an aside, it’s truly amazing that the Tigers never got around either to building a club to their park or adjusting the park to conform to the team’s strengths. Power hitters with a middle-of-the-field approach, outfielders with below-average defensive ability: those are just two of the reasons the club’s current iteration never got to hoist the trophy during its competitive run.

Back to Votto. He toils in Great American Park, the No. 2 fly-ball (145.7 park factor) and overall (115.4) offense-inflating stadium according to my exit-speed-adjusted method. His actual fly-ball production (157 Unadjusted Contact Score) far exceeds Cabrera’s. Adjusted for context, though, his 133 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is lower.

Votto makes up for the fly-ball authority shortfall (and then some) with pure volume. When you piece together a fly-ball rate over one full STD above league average with above-average fly-ball authority plus some serious park effects, you get Votto’s huge power campaign. Plus, Votto isn’t shy to turn and fire and pull the ball for distance when appropriate. His homer spray chart is generous to all fields, but pitchers really don’t want to mess with a typical lefty’s nitro zone down and in to Votto.

You want to talk “harvesting,” this is your guy. He has totally sold out his liner and grounder authority, focusing on more of an uppercut swing to hit the baseball for distance. Very few hitters hit the ball harder as the launch angle increases; however, Votto’s average fly-ball velocity (92.3 mph) exceeds his average liner velocity (90.1 mph), which exceeds his average grounder velocity (79.4 mph). The vast majority of hitters hit their liners hardest of all. Most of the players with such a profile are nearing the end of their productive phase.

Votto’s average overall velocity of 87.3 mph isn’t eye-catching at all; from 2008 to -13, his overall average was over a full STD above league average, but by last season it had settled into the average range. His liner rate has plunged this year. He has simply been no longer content to be the perfect hitter and instead focus on dropping more homers over the short pull-side porch. Hank Aaron, 1971, all over again.

So, Cabrera’s Adjusted Contact Score of 152 actually exceeds Votto’s 134. The latter’s average fly-ball velocity is lower and is down from 93.3 mph in 2016 to 92.3 mph this year. Ditto his liner authority, down from 92.7 mph in 2016 to 90.1 mph in 2017. One guy is hitting the ball to the big part of the field too often, while the other is successfully selectively pulling in the air and keeping them honest on the ground. Cabrera hits his grounders much harder, but his Adjusted Grounder Contact Score is lower (92 to 73) because of excessive pulling.

Lots of hitters achieve short-term benefits by doing something akin to Votto. Those hitters don’t have the ability to record a 0.3% pop-up rate alongside a 39.5% fly-ball rate or suddenly shear 40% off of their strikeout rate. Kudos to Votto, who understood the career phase he was entering and made adjustments to maximize his production. He’ll make this last longer than the typical hitter as a result. And don’t count out Cabrera, who has some real issues to address but retains the advanced hitting ability to still put up some stellar numbers should he be successful in doing so.

See you all in a couple weeks. Getting away for a brief vacation with la famiglia.

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cabrera-and-votto-two-passing-ships/feed/12Chris Davis Has Taken Eight Third Strikes Down the Middlehttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-davis-has-taken-eight-third-strikes-down-the-middle/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-davis-has-taken-eight-third-strikes-down-the-middle/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 20:24:37 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261978Because no one in the AL wild-card hunt feels much like being assertive, yesterday the Orioles and the Mariners played a game with potential playoff implications. The Mariners held a three-run lead going into the top of the ninth, but then Edwin Diaz came apart. Over the span of seven batters, Diaz walked three guys and hit two more. He benefited from a tremendous catch and from a borderline third strike call, but still Diaz couldn’t close it out. With the bases loaded in a 7-6 game, Marc Rzepczynski was called on to deal with Chris Davis. Rzepczynski was going for his second career major-league save.

The first pitch was a fastball off the plate inside, but Davis swung and missed. The second pitch was a fastball over the plate inside, and Davis swung and missed again. At 0-and-2, Davis had no reason to expect a fastball down the pipe. Rzepczynski had no reason to throw a fastball down the pipe. Rzepczynski threw one anyway, and Davis watched it sail. He watched it, and he watched it, until there was nothing left to watch.

In isolation, any individual act on a baseball field is capable of being understood. You get how an outfielder might lose a fly ball in the lights. You get how a pitcher might accidentally allow a pitch to slip out of his hand. Any gaffe is a fluke, and any fluke is bad luck. At least, it can seem that way, and professional baseball players deserve the benefit of the doubt. Everything they’re trying to do is hard, and if you take the Davis at-bat up there, he was presumably expecting a low-away slider. In two-strike situations against lefties, Rzepczynski throws a lot of low-away sliders. You can’t brace yourself for *everything,* and Davis just guessed wrong. The trouble with looking for something in the 80s is that something in the 90s looks like something in the 100s.

It’s when instances pile up that maintaining perspective becomes more of a challenge. In isolation, Chris Davis took one called third strike down the middle. But then, it didn’t happen in isolation, so much. It happened in a season in which Davis had already earlier taken seven called third strikes down the middle. I’m using Baseball Savant as my reference, as per usual, and I selected the strike-zone box corresponding to the middle-middle area. Davis has taken eight third strikes in that box this year. That’s the highest total in the league.

Indeed, it’s tied for the highest single-season total since 2008. The pitch-tracking data covers just about a decade. In 2008, Jack Cust took eight third strikes down the middle. In 2010, Carlos Pena took eight third strikes down the middle. So far in 2017, Chris Davis has taken eight third strikes down the middle, and no one else has had more than seven. Davis has six weeks or so to set a new modern record, and you have to like his chances, given that he took number seven down the pipe just the game before.

For the hell of it, I made videos for all eight. I don’t have any commentary to offer for each. I just figured you might want to see what these look like. A couple might seem slightly high. So be it. I’m just using the Baseball Savant designations, and Davis has a high strike zone, anyhow. Onward, in chronological order.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

The issue isn’t specifically one of taking third strikes down the middle. That would be a weird and inexplicable problem. The issue is one of taking third strikes, period. And now in a way this is violating one of my cardinal rules — that is, writing about something Ben Lindbergh already wrote about. Ben looked at Davis’ called strikeouts at the beginning of June, and, as always, he was informative and thorough. Consider this a timely follow-up, given what Davis did on Wednesday. His numbers are still bizarre and worrying.

We can move on to a plot, breaking down individual strikeout rates. I looked at everyone this year with at least 250 plate appearances, and I calculated, for each player, his rate of called strikeouts, and his rate of swinging strikeouts. Here you see Davis highlighted in yellow.

Davis has a called-strikeout problem. He also has a swinging-strikeout problem, because he isn’t and he never has been a contact hitter, but power hitters can afford to swing and miss. It’s the called-strikeout rate that’s truly extreme, and it’s possible to begin to understand it. Again, in the following plot, Davis is highlighted in yellow. This shows individual player-seasons since 2008, in terms of swing rate at strikes and swing rate a balls. The yellow point is Davis specifically in 2017.

Either one of the numbers is too low, or the other one is too high. Either Davis isn’t aggressive enough against strikes, or he’s far too aggressive against balls. The difference between Davis’ O-Swing% and his Z-Swing% this year is 20.3%. That’s the second-worst difference in baseball, ahead of only Jose Iglesias‘ 19.4%. Davis, in this way, has declined sharply; as recently as 2015, his difference was north of 35%. I don’t know if his vision is eroding, but his discipline is. One would be right to be troubled.

Let’s switch over to some swing rates from Baseball Savant. That site uses a slightly different idea of the strike zone, but it shouldn’t change very much. In this plot, you see Davis’ year-to-year swing rates at would-be strikes. You see his overall swing rate, and you see his two-strike swing rate. Remember that, with two strikes, you’re in theory supposed to protect against any and every pitch over the plate.

It’s fair to say that Davis has plummeted. Sure, his two-strike swing rates have been reliably higher than his overall swing rates. They basically have to be. But when Davis has seen a two-strike pitch this season in the zone, he’s swung just 69.1% of the time. Here is a list of the lowest such rates:

Davis was also last in baseball a season ago, ending up at 71.9%, again separated from the nearest player by multiple percentage points. There is no benefit to taking a third strike in the zone. Sure, sometimes it’s going to happen, to bad hitters and to good hitters alike, but it’s been happening to Davis too much. He’s taken far too many third strikes, for someone still so willing to expand out of the zone.

He’s taken borderline third strikes, and he’s taken non-borderline third strikes. He’s taken way too many third strikes, and I don’t know what the explanation is. It could be, he’s just had a hell of a problem guessing. And it could be Davis simply isn’t seeing the baseball so well. If you want to stretch, you could elect to give Marc Rzepczynski credit for the pitch that he threw. He did, after all, get the strikeout, and maybe it was the plan, to exploit Davis’ presumed assumption that a slider would come his way. You could credit Rzepczynski for being able to execute. On the other hand, in an 0-and-2 count, Rzepczynski threw a fastball down the middle to one of the strongest hitters around, with the bases loaded in a high-leverage spot. In 2017, Rzepczynski earned a save. An earlier version of Chris Davis wouldn’t have let him off so easy.

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-davis-has-taken-eight-third-strikes-down-the-middle/feed/5What Statcast Reveals About Contact Management as a Pitcher Skillhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-statcast-reveals-about-contact-management-as-a-pitcher-skill/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-statcast-reveals-about-contact-management-as-a-pitcher-skill/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 19:00:44 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261898While there are certain events (like strikeouts, walks, and home runs) over which a pitcher exerts more or less direct control, it seems pretty clear at this point that there are some pitchers who are better at managing contact than others. It’s also also seems clear that, if a pitcher can’t manage contact at all, he’s unlikely to reach or stay in the big leagues for any length of time.

Consider: since the conclusion of World War II, about 750 pitchers have recorded at least 1,000 innings; of those 750 or so, all but nine of them have conceded a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .310 or less. Even that group of nine is pretty concentrated, the middle two-thirds separated by .029 BABIP. The difference between the guy ranked 125 out of 751 and the guy ranked 625 out of 751 is just three hits out of 100 balls in play. Those three hits can add up over a long period of time, of course, but it still represents a rather small difference even between players with lengthy careers. For that reason, attempting to discern batted-ball skills among pitchers with just a few seasons of data is difficult. Thanks to the emergence of Statcast, however, we have some better tools than just plain BABIP to evaluate a pitcher’s ability to manage contact. Let’s take a look at what the more granular batted-ball data reveals.

Statcast has provided some new information that allows us to compare a few seasons’ worth of contact quality against pitchers. For the purposes of looking at weak contact, let’s focus on two pursuits. We’ll begin with xWOBA, a metric recently added to Baseball Savant that includes strikeouts and walks to determine a wOBA-like stat based on launch angle and exit velocity. We can use their search to drill down to just those balls which were put in play. Here are the leaders and laggards by xwOBA on contact so far this season for all pitchers with at least 1250 pitches:

So what does that tell us? The first part is kind of obvious: pitchers who get hit hard tend to give up runs; those who don’t get hard, prevent them. Only Danny Salazar, who strikes out one-third of the batters he faces, gives up a bunch of hard contact and has managed a decent season. This general observation would tell you that xwOBA is doing something right. We know that strikeouts and walks play a significant role in a pitcher’s efficacy, which is why r-squared for xwOBA on contact with ERA (.32) and FIP (.23) show some relationship, but not one that is incredibly strong. When you include strikeouts and walks into xWOBA, r-squared is much stronger for both ERA (.58) and FIP (.69). That might put us closer to an ERA estimator or predictor, but that doesn’t really get us to the contact question.

So let’s look at xWOBA on contact and compare that to wOBA on contact. This graph shows the 137 players this season with at least 1250 pitches.

So again, it looks like xwOBA is doing something right, as there’s a relationship between xwOBA on contact and wOBA on contact. I ran these same figures for pitchers in 2016 with at least 2,000 pitches and got pretty similar results, although the relationship was stronger in 2017 than in 2016, perhaps a result of more accurate Statcast data this season. When I looked at xwOBA for hitters earlier in the season, I found a pretty good relationship between xwOBA and itself in the future, finding it a more accurate predictor than past wOBA. We can do something similar for pitchers.

While looking to see if xwOBA against for pitchers might do a better job at estimating and predicting ERA than FIP might be a worthwhile study, we already know FIP does a pretty good job. Trying to see if xwOBA can tell us anything about contact skill might be a bit more interesting and potentially more worthwhile. There are 81 pitchers who recorded at least 2,000 pitches in 2016 and also 1,250 pitches so far this season. For a comparison, here’s a graph showing wOBA on contact against in 2016 and wOBA on contact against in 2017.

So we don’t see a great relationship from year to year, and keep in mind these numbers include home runs. There really isn’t much in there to indicate we can see a skill in the numbers year over year. Perhaps xwOBA can do a little better, like it did on the hitter side. The graph below shows the xwOBA on contact for the same sample of pitchers over the last two seasons.

That’s not really great. Pitchers differed quite a bit from year to year. Some guys were terrible in 2016 and then great in 2017 (Andrew Cashner and Chase Anderson) while other guys went the wrong way (Johnny Cueto, Kyle Hendricks, and Masahiro Tanaka). All of which is to say, it’s hard to look at how a pitcher did against contact in one year and project for the next. We could be dealing with a change in talent level and we could be dealing with some luck or the individual sample sizes just might not be big enough.

As part of my research, I also compared xwOBA on contact in 2016 to wOBA on contact in 2017 and got a similar result (r=.18) to wOBA on contact between the two years. These figures are similar to BABIP between the two years as well (r=.20). Before calling it a day, I used one more Statcast tool: the type of batted ball.

Over at Baseball Savant, they separate the quality of contact into six categories: Barrel, Solid Contact, Flare/Burner, Poorly/Under, Poorly/Topped, and Poorly/Weak. For the same groups of pitchers in 2016 and 2017, I looked at the percentage of batted balls that were classified as one of the last three categories. My thought: perhaps there’s something that a look at the entire data set misses, that inducing weak contact itself needs to be separated from the rest of the batted balls. It didn’t work.

There wasn’t a strong relationship here (r=.23), but keep in mind almost all of the pitchers are grouped together between 58% and 68%, so it might be difficult to find a relationship when the distribution is so narrow. I’m not ready to give up trying to solve pitcher contact, and there’s probably a lot more that could be done even with just the data above, but the data probably does help show something we’ve known for quite a while: the hitter has a lot more control of what happens to the ball once it makes contact.

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-statcast-reveals-about-contact-management-as-a-pitcher-skill/feed/4The Indians Have Won Despite Themselveshttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-indians-have-won-despite-themselves/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-indians-have-won-despite-themselves/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 18:07:54 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261959It’s been a long season, so let me remind you of the start. These days, Sam Dyson is pretty good, and he pitches for the Giants. In April, Sam Dyson was pretty bad, and he was pitching for the Rangers. In the first game of the season, the Rangers led the Indians 5-3 in the seventh. The lead slipped away, and Dyson allowed three runs in the ninth to take the loss. In the third game of the season, the Rangers led the Indians 6-4 in the ninth. The lead slipped away, and Dyson allowed five runs to take the loss. The big knock was a one-out grand slam by Francisco Lindor; that currently stands as having been the third-highest-leverage plate appearance of the Indians’ year. The half-inning was as unforgettable as any half-inning can be in the first week of April.

The Indians got things started with a sweep, a sweep that featured plenty of good clutch hitting. That’s a great way to kick off a campaign, and it comes as little surprise that, in the middle of August, the team’s sitting fairly comfortably atop the AL Central. They’ve done well to hold off the Twins. They’ve done well to hold off the Royals. Ask the Indians, and they’d probably tell you they’ve expected to return to the playoffs from day one. They are plenty good enough. And yet in one sense, while the Indians have a good record, they’ve won despite their own efforts.

This page shows the current BaseRuns records. The super-quick summary of BaseRuns is that it estimates wins and losses based on underlying performances. It attempts to strip away factors it interprets as lucky or unsustainable. By actual winning percentage, league-wide, the Indians rank sixth. By BaseRuns winning percentage, league-wide, the Indians rank third. Within the Central, they’re clear of the Royals by 5.5 games, and they have a six-game lead over the Twins. Turn to BaseRuns, however, and the lead grows to 15.5 games over the Royals, and 20 games over the Twins. A comfortable lead becomes a laughable one. BaseRuns thinks the Indians have been all by themselves.

Nobody wins championships based on BaseRuns. And when there are deviations, the reasons are often numerous. There are reasons why the Twins and the Royals have both overachieved. I’m choosing here to highlight but one single factor. Why haven’t the Indians been quite as good as it seems like they should’ve been? I’m going to borrow from the Baseball Reference team-splits page.

2017 Indians Offense

Leverage

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

tOPS+

High

0.231

0.309

0.369

0.678

77

Medium

0.262

0.342

0.450

0.792

106

Low

0.266

0.338

0.450

0.788

105

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Of course, FanGraphs has its own leverage splits, and I am contractually obligated to be brand-loyal, but I’m using data from Baseball Reference because of that tOPS+ statistic. It’s like regular OPS+, except for any given split, it’s calculated for a player or team relative to his or its overall performance. As always, with OPS+, average is 100. The key number in that table is 77. It’s a reflection of how poorly the Indians have produced in the most important spots.

Is this something the Indians have done before? Not so much.

2016 Indians Offense

Leverage

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

tOPS+

High

0.264

0.340

0.427

0.767

103

Medium

0.266

0.335

0.440

0.775

104

Low

0.257

0.320

0.423

0.743

96

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

A year ago, in high-leverage situations, the Indians ranked 11th in baseball in tOPS+. Neither great nor bad. Just totally normal. This year, they’re dead last. I probably don’t need to spell out for you the link between high-leverage under-performance and overall team under-performance. A metric like BaseRuns tries to strip away the influence of timing. But, in reality, those high-leverage situations are the most critical. There’s the most to gain or lose. If you are unusually lousy in the biggest spots, that’s going to mean more than going hitless for a few too many first innings.

Using the Play Index, I examined the Indians as a franchise, going back to 1960. This information doesn’t exist for the entirety of baseball history, so I went with 1960 as a simple cutoff. On a year-to-year basis, here is how the Indians have done in the high-leverage split, by tOPS+.

This year, again, they’re at 77. Their previous low was 89. One would expect this season’s figure to move, as there’s still time for good ol’ regression to take place, but if the season were to end today, the Indians would have one of the very worst marks on record. Here’s the bottom 10, with the Indians highlighted.

Worst High-Leverage Hitting

Team

Season

tOPS+

Athletics

1994

74

Twins

1978

77

Angels

1981

77

Rangers

2001

77

Indians

2017

77

White Sox

1970

80

Brewers

1980

80

Devil Rays

1999

80

Tigers

2003

80

Devil Rays

2006

80

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

If you figure all the 77s are tied, then only one team has been worse — the 1994 A’s, who played 114 games. It’s not a coincidence such a number would’ve been achieved in a strike-shortened season. Again, the probability is that the Indians finish higher than 77 — if you look at their breakdown, this isn’t the kind of thing anyone would’ve expected.

Zimmer is a rookie, without a track record. Out of the other players, four are exceeding their career high-leverage tOPS+ marks, while eight have under-performed. There’s no good reason why these Indians ought to be unclutch, and there’s still time for them to find their level. You could say it’s already happening. This is somewhat reflected by our own Clutch statistic, available on the team leaderboards. In April, by batting Clutch, the Indians ranked 23rd. In May, they were 29th. In June, 26th, and in July, 30th. So far in August, they’re 10th. It’s getting better. It’s gotten better. The Indians have stretched their advantage.

They’re better than this, and they’re likely to play better than this. That’s generally the conclusion of any and every post that discusses unclutch performance. You’ve read enough of them before. The Indians shouldn’t finish with that tOPS+ of 77, but the fact of the matter is that, three-quarters of the way through the year, this is where they stand. That’s what they’ve done. It’s a mark that would quality as historically poor, and it helps to explain why the Indians’ record isn’t what it probably should be. Which isn’t to say they’re not responsible for their own outs, but I can’t imagine why it would be a talent issue. My assumption is it’s more of a timing issue. It’s a thing that’s just kind of happened.

The Indians have been legitimately unclutch. On the offensive side, anyway. They’ve been below-average in this regard on the pitching side as well, but it hasn’t been nearly so dramatic. It’s been the lack of big hits that’s prevented the Indians from rising even higher in the standings. That seems like a bad thing, and indeed, no team would want this to be true. But the Indians get to move forward assuming this is going to normalize. That only makes them look even better.

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-indians-have-won-despite-themselves/feed/4Tigers Prospect Anthony Castro on Venezuelahttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tigers-prospect-anthony-castro-on-venezuela/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tigers-prospect-anthony-castro-on-venezuela/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 17:00:37 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261914Anthony Castro is emerging as one of the top pitching prospects in the Detroit Tigers organization. Two years removed from Tommy John surgery and armed with plus stuff, the 22-year-old right-hander is 9-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 18 starts for the Low-A West Michigan Whitecaps.

Following his last outing, a coach for the opposing team was highly complimentary of Castro’s cutter, which is actually a mid-90s four-seam fastball that has natural cutting action. As the native of Caracas, Venezuela, explained, “It just comes out that way. That’s crazy.”

It’s not crazy to believe he’s ready to prove himself at the next level. As the aforementioned coach told me, “I’m not sure why the kid is still in the Midwest League.”

Castro has taken his family out of their homeland, and for perfectly understandable reasons: with the situation in Venezuela growing increasingly worse, the youngster feared for their safety and well-being.

“I’ve moved my parents to the Dominican Republic,” a somber Castro told me. “That was a few months ago. The situation in my country is really bad. I don’t make a lot of money, but when I first signed to play pro baseball [in 2011], I knew that I didn’t need to spend all the money. I saved some of it, and I’ve been saving money this whole season. Now we are living down there; I rent a house down there.

“It is really hard to leave your country, and sometimes when I talk to my mom she says she misses her house. I say, ‘Mom, but we are safe now. That is the principal thing. That is what we need to care about, that we are safe and healthy, and have food.’ In Venezuela right now — I have to be honest — it is nothing comparable to 10 years ago. It is something really sad.”

Baseball is also being compromised in the crisis-ridden country. While nowhere near as important as the real-life hardships being endured by millions of people, the sport is nonetheless a Venezuelan staple. When I asked Castro about it, he answered with a solemn shake of the head.

“It is sad for baseball, too,” he told me. “I don’t want to say the government, but… I think it is their fault. Yes. We had a Venezuelan summer league — I played two years there — and there is no Venezuelan Summer League anymore. All of my teammates and my coaches moved to the Dominican Republic. Now we have a big team there. And now the Detroit Tigers, the GCL Tigers, have two teams in Florida, because of what happened with the government down there. We are also not going to have winter baseball in my country. Yes, it is really bad.”

Castro is glad that several Venezuelan-born big-league players have been speaking out about the political turmoil, but he’s not sure that it does much good. As he put it, “What is happening right now in Venezuela is a war zone. What a couple of famous players are saying can’t do very much. My country… I hope that everything can get better in the next few years, because I worry that it’s going to happen like Cuba. They have like 60 years of doing the same. They can’t change, they can’t vote for another president. I think we are very, very close to that. It is sad.”

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tigers-prospect-anthony-castro-on-venezuela/feed/2Cleveland’s Rotation Is Distancing Itself from the Packhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cleveland-rotation-distancing-itself-from-the-pack/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cleveland-rotation-distancing-itself-from-the-pack/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 15:52:22 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261760For much of the season, the Indians and Cubs appeared to be afflicted by the same sort of World Series hangover. Is it possible that last year’s Game 7 was so intense, crazy, joyous, and heartbreaking that its effects would linger? Most likely not, no, but it makes for a nice, tidy narrative anyway.

Some nine months after the epic, decisive game, however, an important part of the Indians’ roster appears to be getting its act together just as the high-leverage games of September and beyond draw near.

Cleveland’s rotation was expected to be a strength entering the season, but due to injury (Corey Kluber missed a month due to a lower-back issue) and performance inconsistency (see: Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer), Indians starters combined for an American League-worst 4.78 ERA in April and then a 4.81 ERA in May (which ranked 10th in the AL).

Cleveland’s rotation was a bit unlucky as a group, probably. They were hurt by a 16.4% HR/FB rate in April and an 18.2% mark in May. What was expected to be a strength, the rotation, was one of the club’s early-season weaknesses.

Over the past 30 days, however, Indians starting pitchers possess the league’s highest collective WAR (4.8), and it isn’t particularly close: the next best team by that measure is Boston, at 3.3*. Cleveland’s starters lead baseball in FIP (3.04) over the last 30 days, nearly a half-run better than the second-place Dodgers (3.52). The Indians have also produced the top xFIP (3.18), the Dodgers again placing a distant second (3.55).

*Numbers entering play on Wednesday.

Perhaps the best, most simple measure of dominance is strikeout-minus-walk rate. The Indians blow away the field by that measure, too.

Since his return from the disabled list, Kluber has struck out nearly 40% of batters (151 of 378), a rate only five relief pitchers have matched this season. Perhaps only Chris Sale is a superior, healthy starting-pitching option to Kluber in the majors at the moment. Kluber has won a Cy Young award, he’s finished in the top three of the voting in three straight years, and he’s never been better.

He has a pair of complete-game, 11-strikeout efforts over his last three starts and struck out a season-best 14 on July 23rd against Toronto:

Trevor Bauer also struck out 14 in a single game, a career-high mark for him — in this case, as part of a May 30th start the Oakland A’s. The right-hander has simplified his pitch mix and perhaps found a road map to another level. Since that start, Bauer has struck out 85 in 77 innings to go along with a 3.74 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and 3.57 xFIP.

Bauer has followed something of the Rich Hill and Drew Pomeranz plan and has begun to throw his best pitch — his curveball — at a much higher rate. Bauer is throwing the curve at a 33.2% rate since that start against hte A’s. Since, making the change, Bauer — who struck out 11 Red Sox in 6.2 innings Monday — has strung together some of the best performances of his career and kept himself in the rotation. His curveball has the second-most vertical movementin the game this season.

FanGraphs proudly presents the Bauer curveball:

Salazar has returned from a bullpen demotion and DL stint to string together four consecutive productive outings, often showing dominant form since his return. He struck out 10 Twins without walking a batter Tuesday evening.

He’s relied more heavily upon his high-spin fastball — a pitch that ranks third among all four-seamers in whiff rate (31.3%) — to better get ahead of hitters. His excellent split-change remains. The Indians coaching staff wanted Salazar to be more aggressive and to get more on top of the ball mechanically. He has apparently made strides in each department. Since returning, Salazar has a 64.5% first-pitch strike rate and a 16.9% swinging-strike rate. He ranks second in ERA (1.39) and strikeouts (44) since coming off the DL.

On Saturday, Carlos Carrasco didn’t allow a hit until the seventh inning against the Rays. Carrasco has some of the best stuff among all starting pitchers, with a slider, changeup, and curveball that have all ranked as above-average pitches, according to linear weights, since 2014.

Mike Clevinger has employed a four-pitch mix, including one of the game’s best sliders to become something more than quality depth. The game’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranking swing-and-miss sliders? They are thrown by Kluber and Clevinger

The only blemish over the last 30 days for the Indians’ rotation is Josh Tomlin‘s trip to the disabled list. While Tomlin has excellent command, he has less upside than other starting options.

Cleveland had briefly utilized a six-man rotation until the Tomlin injury. Assuming the club advances to divisional-round play this postseason, the Indians could bolster their bullpen with a Clevinger, Salazar, or Bauer in a relief role where their stuff might further play up.

What it all means is that the Indians’ rotation — now at nearly full strength and with a number of its members enjoying performance spikes and skill growth — is now one of the more (if not most) formidable rotations in the game. It was expected to be just that, but it’s taken a while to get there due to injuries in the second half of last season and more injuries — and uneven performance — early this season.

This development perhaps means the Astros are not the runaway AL front runner they were just a month ago.

The Indians might have won a World Series last year had their rotation been healthy. Heck, the Indians might have won their first title since 1948 with just one more healthy rotation option.

They reached Game 7 with Kluber, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and duct tape. Their rotation is healthy now. It’s been the most productive in the game over the last 30 days and now ranks as the top rotation in the majors, by WAR, overall for the season. If this production continues, no team will want to face the Indians in October.

Cleveland might not catch the Astros for status as the best regular-season team in American League in 2017. But major-league baseball is a sport of two seasons, which have different dynamics, and the Indians are well positioned for the second season.

Eno Sarris: Conforto. They have like discipline and defense, and Conforto more power, and Ben’s speed is not of the difference making variety.

12:05

Lloyd Braun’s Freezer: Seemingly half of the q’s in Dave’s chat yesterday were Nola trade inquiries; there seems to be concern about his health and incompatibility with the team’s timeline. Do you think the Phillies should be urgent about seeking trade offers this winter?

12:07

Eno Sarris: No. I think this team is closer than they appear. Look at all the young bats that are just about to jump into the bigs. Not all will make it, but they have so many that if three are great, one or two are passable, they have a lineup. Franco could start to lift the ball better one year, or another player could make a big adjustment, and that lineup could be v good v soon. And they have money to spend eventually.

12:07

Enis the Penis: What are you doing now? ….. Stupid high school jocks

12:07

Eno Sarris: “Dink” hurt more, but not a lot. I didn’t think I was going pro in a sport or anything.

12:07

Bryce on my DL: If Stanton gets to 62, is he your HR king?

12:07

Eno Sarris: No.

12:08

Rice, Lynn, & Evans: I need this one as I have to make a drop before game-time. Do you think Josh Hader soon gets some starts? By soon, I mean before Sept 11th, since that’s the end of our playoffs and season. I picked him up a few weeks ago speculating that he may get some starts. Thanks.

12:08

Eno Sarris: Doesn’t seem like it, with Woodruff jumping in the rotation.

12:08

Jim: What makes a good slider?

12:09

Eno Sarris: Hardest pitch to study. I think, if you combine what I found on sliders with what I found on curves, the simplest explanation is the best: velocity and drop. Those high-80s/low 90s breakers that Gray has been throwing have the chance to make him an ace if he doesn’t lose the curve.

12:09

Salvador on my DL too: Who is a good Ozzie Albies comp?

12:11

Eno Sarris: Go back and look at Jose Altuve’s early work. I’m not crazy. I *am* being zealous. a more reasonable comp might be Josh Harrison?

12:12

BreakOut: Latest thinking on Anthony Banda?

12:14

Eno Sarris: He’s… I don’t know. I wasn’t that impressed watching his start the other day, but the changeup looks pretty good. Not sure about the slurve and the command. I’d buy if the price was low and the league was deeper than 12.

12:14

Joey Votto’s Pants: Tighter

12:14

adam: when your farts sounds wet but aren’t that’s amore

12:14

hscer: what happened to the inter of lude

12:14

hscer: they’re all just ludes now

12:14

Matt: I have begun the process of petitioning the USA to change the observed name of “Thursday” to “Enoday”. Will update on my progress.

12:15

Rodrigo: Yesterday Dave said Devers has the chance to be the best hitter on baseball and made a Freeman type comparison. Average there, power eventually comes. Similar feel for you?

12:16

Eno Sarris: Here’s the absolutely nutso thing about Devers: he hasn’t even begun to pull the ball yet, and he’s murdering it. Seriously, he pulled more than twice as often in the minors, came up, saw everyone was pitching him away, shrugged, and hit bombs. Dude has extreme feel for hitting and is already pushing the upper bounds of my outsized love for him in the preseason. I’ve seen a few managers put Devers out there, maybe they think they’re selling high, but oh man this is not a .250 hitter like ZiPs says. I’ll say the .282/.330/.462 from steamer is too light on the power. So we’re talking special.

12:17

Stuafoo: What do you think about the benefit of rotating in a bunch of replaceable starters with funky/deceptive motions? Has any research been done on guys with standard vs. unique deliveries?

12:18

Eno Sarris: We know that knuckleballers have a hangover effect, and Barry Bonds said on the TV the other day that other ‘specialists’ did the same thing. I’m thinking we define specialists as top or bottom 10% in arm slot, and any pitcher that throws a non fastball/non cutter over 40% of the time, and see if we can find a hangover effect there.

12:18

Black Beard’s Delight: Do you think it’s worth it for me to fly out to first pitch forums? …. What do you set the over/under at for guys offering to buy you a beer?

12:18

Eno Sarris: Yah the AFL is the best way to see tomorrow’s stars, a weekend of talking about baseball is fun as heck, and nobody gets to offer me a beer because I usually curate the hell out of at least one of the nights with a half flown-in half found beer selection.

12:19

Ben: Which pitcher has the best stuff?

12:19

Eno Sarris: Sometimes I think it’s someone like Carrasco or Salazar. Definitions say their pitches are Nasteh at least. Kershaw has great stuff, but elite command. Greinke more like him. Scherzer elite stuff, probably he has the best stuff.

12:20

Nelson: Has it even been proven why the juiced ball doesnt affect power hitters as much? Am I supposed to believe that Freddy Galvais hits more warning track shots than Kris Bryant?

12:21

Eno Sarris: I think it makes a little sense if you look at spray charts. There’s a connect/soft connect disparity in almost every spray chart, a long fly ball and then the line drive/short fly ball blobs, usually a little separate. So if you Stanton, the long fly ball blob is already naturally further out and there’s less to gain from it?

12:22

John: Hey Eno, how do you have so many ingredients for sandwiches? It seems like a lot of that stuff should be expiring considering your variety day-to-day and your traveling. I’m jealous and want to start mixing up my sandwich game

12:22

Eno Sarris: I usually do the buying for the household and maintain that s.

12:22

Matt: I am and have been bullish on Greg Bird’s ability, but having followed him for a few years, I’ve admittedly become a bit jaded in my confidence in his health. Sure, he had some health issues early in his career, but his two major MLB injuries were a torn rotator cuff, and a mis-(un?)-diagnosed injury from a foul ball that probably could have been resolved in a more timely manner. Should I temper my jadedness?

12:23

Eno Sarris: I guess so, he said with a sigh. Could just be timing, though. Teixeira had these exact same problems, just at different times in his career.

12:24

E: Why is Brent Honeywell not pitching for the Rays?

12:24

Eno Sarris: I don’t see him on the 40-man so you’d have to drop someone even to spot him.

12:24

Cashman man: Does Oh or Lyons get first shot at closing if Rosy is out?

12:24

Eno Sarris: Lyons

12:24

Bitter: You say the Sour Sisters are easy finds in the northeast, but alls I see from Goose Island is their boring stuff. Is NJ not northeast enough?

12:25

Eno Sarris: Sours generally are not easy to find, so I guess I should have qualified that statement. They aren’t super easy, but if you tried another bottle shop, you might find em. Do you see any sours where you look?

12:25

Jerj Clooners:

12:25

CarrotJuice: Is it just me is does Eloy Jimenez kinda like Jorge Soler 2014 as a prospect? Prodigious power but otherwise average to below average tools (except for Soler’s 60-70 grade arm). Heck, they’re even built similar! Eloy is 6-4/205 and Soler was 6-4/215!

12:26

Eno Sarris: Eloy is a little less wooden, I’d say. I’ve seen him go oppo more often and also make more athletic catches. I’d say Soler is Eloy’s floor, but his ceiling is higher.

12:26

Babadook: Eno! Good morning young man. How many years until the As are no longer hot garbage?

12:27

Eno Sarris: Three? Two? I see something I like in Chapman, Olson, Pinder, Healy, Mateo, Fowler. Let’s see what pitching they find.

12:27

Keith Hernandez: Should the Marlins consider flipping Stanton this offseason? Maybe put something together with the Cardinals involving Alex Reyes? This might be the highest his stock gets.

12:27

Eno Sarris: Yeah probably. I had a long discussion about this on twitter the other day. Let me put up a poll about this before I poison the waters with my opinion.

12:28

Eno Sarris:

Giancarlo Stanton WAR over remaining 10 years on contract

42+ (8.9% | 17 votes)

38-42 (16.9% | 32 votes)

34-38 (27.5% | 52 votes)

30-34 (29.6% | 56 votes)

30- (16.9% | 32 votes)

Total Votes: 189

12:29

Art Vandelay: getting a box containing King Sue tomorrow. Have you tried it? Is it actually *that* good? I love pseudo, so expectations are high

12:29

Eno Sarris: never had it, but part of why pseudo Sue is so good is because is so mellow/crisp, so it could ruin it. I’m not SURE that King Julius is better than Julius, myself.

12:29

Babe Lincoln: For the love of god, is someone writing an article now about what the Mets did with Cabrera and d’Arnaud last night?

12:30

Eno Sarris: That was really fun. It reminded me of the idea of switching Michael Morse and Hunter Pence depending on who was at the plate.

12:30

Hadji the Cat: What kind of contract do you see Duda getting this offseason? He seems to be at that awkward point of exiting his prime and having questionable abilities on defense.

12:30

Eno Sarris: Him and Yonder will be fascinating studies, but I think we learned from past corner guys in recent market that it won’t be a big deal.

12:30

Anthony: Can Lamet succeed as a starter with only two pitches?

12:31

Eno Sarris: The movement is good on the change, he just doesn’t trust it. If he just threw it hard like a Greinke change, I think he could be very good. He doesn’t have the command to be Greinke or anything.

12:31

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: So Arrieta lost the cutter for around a year and then got it back? How does that happen?

12:31

Eno Sarris: I’ve seen some changes in his release point. Throws around his body, so maybe it’s harder to keep all that in the right place.

12:31

Dr. Funk: Better call the Doctor…

12:32

nick: Tommy Pham is running a high BABIP but still.. he has almost 4 fwar in less than 400 PA. Is he an above average regular going forward ?

Eno Sarris: A two-pitch pitcher runs the risk of having high platoon splits, and if you don’t bake that into your projections/evaluative stat, then you might miss it.

12:34

Mike: Heading to Austin in a week. What’s the spot I have to check out?

12:35

Eno Sarris: Rainey Street if you don’t want to drive to Jester King.

12:35

CW: Have you noticed any changes in Manaea that could be causing his struggles?

12:35

Eno Sarris: Velocity down, might be hurt.

12:35

Smoovie: Remember how three fruit smoothies perform better than two fruit smoothies, like their pitcher counterparts? Well four fruit smoothies are like Sonny Gray going bad. Too much happening most of the time

Eno Sarris: I’m all over him. I love him. He’s an acquire if you’re looking to sell in a dynasty keeper and want to find a young undervalued guy.

12:37

TRANE: Folty can consistently get to 2 strikes, then the problems start, counted 5 times last night 0-2 then the batter still got on. Is that a mechanical or mental thing?

12:37

Eno Sarris: I think his secondary stuff is not very good.

12:38

bosoxforlife: Have you ever seen a player on 3rd thrown out at home on a single to CF before? I have been watching the game for 70 years and that was a first.

12:38

Eno Sarris: JBJ the man. Also, it was a shallow single.

12:38

Sleepy: Dumb question of the day–is BsR a rate stat, or can a player accumulate “more” by simply playing more?

12:39

Eno Sarris: It’s a counting stat, but, like WAR, you can put up negative work, so playing more might actually hurt your numbers.

12:39

Greg: Need a spot starter this week, Kuhl home vs STL or Conley at NYM? Yes these are not great options

12:39

Eno Sarris: Kuhl.

12:39

Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine: Is it normal to have a man crush on Joey Votto?

12:39

Eno Sarris: Completely. I hope.

12:41

Eno Sarris: Allright, so check it on Stanton. Rough math with $10 m a win and .5 aging and yadda yadda yadda, if Stanton is a 6.5 win guy right now, he puts up 42.5 wins. If he’s a 6, as projections say, he’s 37.5. I’m in that 34-38 camp. That should give him $120-150m in surplus value, which is a top ten hitter, a top ten pitcher, and another top 50 hitter or pitcher. It takes less if you’re in the other camps.

12:41

Eno Sarris: Why wasn’t he just straight up claimed then?

12:43

Mike: who to keep out of R. Ray, J. Nelson, R. Hoskins, C. Santana (all same cost except Santana who is $4 more)

12:44

Eno Sarris: Hoskins. I think this boy gonna be good. 50% fly balls and a 4% whiff rate? I know it’s only 29 PA but those are the numbers that are meaningful fastest, and even the projected 21/24% strikeout rates plus his power would make him very interesting.

12:44

Fire Matheny: Why do we not have a standard, more quantifiable way of measuring a manager’s impact?

12:44

Eno Sarris: I tried and Matheny was near the bottom or last when it came to: putting his best relievers in the right spots, showing flexability when it came to using relievers in roles, and putting his best players in the right spots in the lineups.

12:45

Norrin Radd: I have inadvertently followed Rajai’s career very closely because he always seems to be the first guy to come up on waivers when I’m looking for steals. My future grandkids better be ready for Rajai facts.

Gradually Gollum: With Eric’s newest prospect list just coming out, I have a quick question. Has anyone ever lookses back on old listses to see if there is a nasty prospect type consistently overrated in such listses, Precious? Does nasyt, stinking little scoutses overrate a particular aspect of a prosp-GOLLUM GOLLUM!

12:49

Eno Sarris: I’ve seen some look at tools and how they translate — Jeff Zimmerman does good stuff here — and I think speed is tantalizing to some prospect listmakers and is the least correlated to success.

12:50

CamdenWarehouse: regarding deliveries – it has been suggested that Baltimore’s recent sustained success from the pen might be the result of the pitchers all giving different looks

12:50

Eno Sarris: Yeah they do a great job of finding guys with weird looks. Hard to know if that means the other guys are better because of their weird looks, or if it just means they found undervalued good relievers that are good because they are deceptive.

12:50

Hadji the Cat: Thoughts on great hybrid beers? I’ve recently had local microbrew versions of a brown-sour and a Belgian-brown. Both were interesting and worked surprisingly well.

12:51

Eno Sarris: Hoppy sours are my favorite.

12:51

Joey: Have you ever given advice to a baseballer before? Maybe not so direct like, “You should try doing _____ “, but simply bring up something you noticed in their mechanics etc. that could be fixed?

12:51

Eno Sarris: More and more often. “have you ever considered…” if just to have them tell me why not.

12:52

LegallyEagle: If a pitcher had 80 command, is even 40 stuff fine for that pitcher to be good in the majors?

Eno Sarris: Jackalope? I just don’t remember the beer that fondly or well.

12:54

Nihilist Eno: I was upset because I was late to Eno chat as I’m traveling. The disappointment fades as I realize that eno chats are nothing more than an artifice to distract from our depressing reality. Baseball is cool tho

12:54

Travis: At what point should minor league performance matter? I understand a guy like Moncada has ridiculous tools, but shouldn’t the fact that he hasn’t actually been able to put those tools to good use matter? Shouldn’t a guy like Acuna, who has similar tools but also has the performance to back it up, be thought of more highly?

12:54

Eno Sarris: Each prospect analyst has a different mix of projectability, tools, skills, and actual performance.

12:54

Marty: Thor may have the best pure stuff.

12:55

Marty: Honeywell will have to end up on the 40-man soon or else he’s subjecet to the Rule 5 draft, right?

12:55

Eno Sarris: Yeah probably. But the Rays want to keep every last asset as long as possible, is the general answer.

12:55

Bitter: The best/closest thing to a bottle shop I’ve got is a Wegmans. I see rotating sours…they had Brooklyn’s, they had Sexy Motherpucker, now Ommegang’s sour pale ale, always have Sour Monkey, a bunch of goses, and a handful of others. But the Sisters are entering Seinfeld-White Whale levels

12:55

Eno Sarris: Weird. I’d pick Sour Monkey there.

12:55

Tim: Would it be fair to say what makes a good slider is also what makes it the biggest health risk?

12:56

Eno Sarris: … yes. Sliders generally put less stress on the elbow via MOTUS, but if you correct for velo, they put more per mph, so if you throw a 94 mph slider…

12:56

Sonny: Be careful, Dr Funk’s phd is in comparative literature and she will be of no use to you in a medical emergency

12:57

Marty: Feels like Duda would make a good Boston FA signing

12:57

Eno Sarris: Yeah but they’ll have the run of the place and can take their time.

12:57

Salvador on my DL too: Re: Albies/Altuve comp, does that make him a potential keeper in a 20 team keep 8? I get the whole “depends on your team” part of the equation, but just generally, a top 160 type in a keeper?

12:57

Eno Sarris: For me, yeah.

12:59

Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine: A.J Burnett had a solid career as a 2 pitch pitcher. Was his stuff so good that he was able to? (Better than all those “failing” 2 pitch pitchers)

12:59

Eno Sarris: Probably also helped that the second pitch was a curve (like Hill) and that he actually manipulated it a bit to throw a secret harder slider type curve.

12:59

get me into the playoffs!: Please help me with a decision for today Eno. My team is fighting to hold onto the last playoff spot this week (H2H), and I’m trying to decide whether to roll Taillon against STL today. I can afford to bench one of my remaining starts, and this would be the most obvious sit. What do you feel like his odds are of having a quality start, and of having a blowup?

1:00

Eno Sarris: I’d roll him. 15 K against 3 BB in last two starts.

1:00

Brett Honeywell: Eddie Rosario and Dexter Fowler seem the same to me this year, one you rather have this year? why?

1:00

Eno Sarris: I just trust Dexter Fowler to keep doing it more.

1:00

TRANE: Somethings to look for in a under-valued pitcher?

1:01

Eno Sarris: Good velocity, good movement, even mix.

1:01

TRANE: This is only season Stanton has stayed healthy

1:01

Eno Sarris: he’s had two seasons with 600+ PA, and I’m unsure how much to penalize him for being hit by a ball.

1:02

Wily Mo’s Ghost: Stanton wasn’t straight up claimed because of the opt-out. Cameron is right about that–it totally changes the value of the contract begins it pins all the risk on the team.

1:04

Eno Sarris: I understand that will become part of the discussion in a trade… but in claiming? Here’s a thing about the risk: is he going to suck? Or is he going to have a debilitating injury that forces him out. Because if he sucks, sure, then the risk is on the team. I don’t get that, because Stanton has been great when in. Is he going to have a debilitating injury? maybe, but then you have insurance. I guess a nagging chronic injury is the third, disastrous outcome for a team, but if I was running a team I would have claimed the contract.

1:04

pirates hurdles: Thank you Eno, the idea that his contract is underwater is silly. I get it, the opt out could hurt, but you could build that out of the deal. The Verlander situation is the same thing to a smaller scale.

1:04

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Stanton prob wasn’t claimed because no owner has that big of a contract baked into their payroll. It would take a while to refigure out the future of the franchise right? It’d be like going on vacation, seeing a Bentley and just buying it on the spot.

1:04

Eno Sarris: This is maybe why he’ll get traded in the offseason. Easier to clear way for that contract then then now.

1:05

Big Tuna: What’s the best way to make up ground in ratios this late in the season?

1:05

Eno Sarris: Pick the one your’e closest in and make a radical change to your lineup.

1:05

Oddball Herrera: Pirates at this point basically have to try Glasnow again in the majors soon, right? At some point you need to let your player stop embarrassing AAA hitters and see if he sinks/swims in the majors once and for all. May as well do it during a lost season rather than risk losing games that may mean something next year

Sonny: Re: grading managers, is it possible to define how much longer a bad manager holds their job based on how symmetrical their face is or how many boxes on the traditional handsomeness chart the check?

1:08

v2micca: I’ve been reading more analysts talk about the advantage of a pitcher keeping his lower half more closed to prevent the batter from getting a good look at the pitch. But, wouldn’t this also limit the power they can generate from the core? Is the additional deception worth the trade off?

1:09

Eno Sarris: There’s also an injury asterisk. You can do damage to your hip labrum. Just plant your foot and mimic throwing across it and you’ll feel it.

1:09

Porcho Villa: Can you expand on what you meant by your Honeywell answer? Are you saying that keeping him down until later in September lets them hold on to him longer? Aren’t we well past the point in the season where that would matter?

1:09

Eno Sarris: No, just that calling him up now means losing some other asset that they have to drop off the 40 to make room for Honeywell.

1:09

Wes: If you are headed to Austin, check out Blue Owl Brewing for some good sours. Close to Rainey.

1:10

Eno Sarris: Love their sours! oh and there’s a place with mediocre pizza but great hazy ipas.. forget the name.

1:10

Sonny: Cool to bail on Cotton in ’17? Keep on the radar for 18 drafts?

1:10

Eno Sarris: Yeah. I’m not sure what he needs to do — he’s still interesting with above-average whiff rates on three pitches — but he needs to figure something out on balls in play.

1:11

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Is Thanksgiving dinner just a deconstructed sandwich?!

1:12

Eno Sarris: mind. blown. (I have put everything — including the sweet potatoes — back on bread the next day)

1:12

Greg: Austin Pruitt, yea or nay?

1:12

Eno Sarris: eh

1:12

v2micca: Imagine that Minor League baseball significantly raised the salaries of all High A, AA, and AAA players to the point where guys with a replacement level ceiling would willingly stay in the game until their late 30’s not because they were still chasing the MLB dream, but simply because it payed well. Do you see more positive or negative from this scenario?

1:14

Eno Sarris: Positive, though there may be some unintended consequences. Positives: your local minor league game gets better. Negatives: that may put pressure on local minor league team to win, and put some pressure on winning over development. But the prime directive is this: these people deserved to get a living wage. The rest is prologue.

1:14

Roark: Is Roark worth owning for qs and w now that rainouts changed his schedule slightly and no harper? He was originally lined up to face a couple of weak teams like SD and Phillies (2). Would you rather stream in a 10 teamer?

1:14

Eno Sarris: Streamer.

1:14

Chris: Do you believe in miracles? Nick Williams has walked 5 times in the past week!

Matthew: Did writing your recent article on Luis Castillo make you more or less of a believer?

1:16

Eno Sarris: More. Especially since he’s using the sinker more recently.

1:17

gee: What other sports would you like to see the managers/coaches dress in full uniform?

1:17

Eno Sarris: oh basketball would be hilarious. much more than football.

1:19

B: Name a minor leaguer that is completely off the radar that I can pick up in my dynasty league that is going to be good.

1:22

Eno Sarris: That is a difficult one haha. in today’s day and age everyone is all over every prospect. here are some guys I like/still like from shallower to deeper: Andy Ibanez (has power batted ball mix and good contact ability and speed), Forrest Wall (hurt but young and exiting, COL MI prospect), Billy McKinney (started turning on the ball), Takahiro Norimoto (great Japanese pitcher that might come over soon).

1:22

Rich : Mentioned Gray possible ace- Gray Colorado?

1:22

Eno Sarris: was talking Sonny.

1:22

CamdenWarehouse: If football coaches dressed in the uniform (minus the pads of course) they’d just look like fans

1:22

Eno Sarris: In pads might be funny, but not like Steve Kerr in short shorts.

1:22

ugh: Stan Van Gundy in a tank top? where is the unsee button

1:23

Eno Sarris: I mean we did Bobby Cox ambling out to the mound in tight pants for a while, we can do this.

1:23

CamdenWarehouse: Max Shrock is off the radar!

1:23

Eno Sarris: He is. just hasn’t shown power, or a power friendly batted ball mix, so far.

1:25

fripp+eno: Why Sano over Gallo? Gallo can play a better 3B, has way more game power, walks more, and is a much better athlete. Are you higher on Sano taking steps forward or Gallo going backwards?

1:26

Eno Sarris: Sano closer to having a more viable K% IMO. Also, he’s made some adjustments that Gallo has yet to encounter, I bet.

1:26

Porcho Villa: Life Oaks very good, but my vote for best America hefe is Schnickelfritz by Urban Chestnut (STL)

1:26

Eno Sarris: Also great. For a guy that doesn’t love Hefes I’ve had some good ones.

1:27

Eno Sarris: Man I gotta go. Life is pretty crazy right now. Thanks for hanging out for a bit!

1:28

Dougie Jones: You often say players who are struggling might be hurt (for example Manaea). Should they not be playing, then? Are they concealing injuries, or just playing through something manageable?

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eno-sarris-baseball-chat-81717/feed/2The Fascinating Race for the NL MVPhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fascinating-race-for-the-nl-mvp/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fascinating-race-for-the-nl-mvp/#commentsThu, 17 Aug 2017 14:09:06 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261894On Monday, I talked a bit about the AL MVP race and how Chris Sale should pretty clearly be the frontrunner at this point. Over in the National League, though, it’s not really possible to write a completely honest piece advocating for just one single candidate, because as of mid-August, there are nearly 10 guys with legitimate cases for the award.

The likely leader in the clubhouse right now is Paul Goldschmidt. The case for him is pretty easy to make: he’s the best player on a team that wouldn’t be in the postseason race without him, and no one is clearly outplaying him. He’s fifth in batting average, third in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging, and for those who are still into those kinds of things, third in RBIs. He leads the NL in WAR, so he’s not a Juan Gonzalez-type of traditional candidate who gets exposed by looking deeper. The Diamondbacks are pretty likely to make the Wild Card game, so he’ll probably get the playoff-team boost. Overall, he’s got something to offer pretty much every kind of voter and would almost certainly be the favorite to win the award if it were held today.

But while Goldschmidt probably would have the most diverse appeal among voters, and would almost certainly finish in the top two or three on the most ballots, he might not be the top choice for as many voters as you’d think. For one, Giancarlo Stanton is going to hit 50 home runs and might end up at 60, so for those who just want the best slugger, there’s a huge gap between Goldschmidt and the NL’s premier home-run hitter.

Giancarlo Stanton represents one-tenth of the NL players for whom you could make a reasonable MVP case.(Photo: Corn Farmer)

For voters who prefer RBI as their go-to offensive metric — and there are still some around — Nolan Arenado is an easy sell, as he leads the league in that category and plays a spectacular third base. His team is also a surprise contender who wouldn’t be one without him, and his batting average and home-run totals are nearly the equal of Goldschmidt’s, so for a voter who wants to stick to how MVPs were picked back in the day, Arenado looks every bit Goldschmidt’s equal on offense and offers more value in the field.

But both of those guys are playing for Wild Card teams, and Stanton’s team is out of the race entirely, so if any voters decided to limit their pool for the top spot to players only guaranteed a playoff spot — since the voting has to be turned in before the Wild Card game is played, perhaps such a voter would decide that a Wild Card-losing team didn’t actually make “the playoffs” — they’d still have a cornucopia of deserving candidates from which to pick.

Corey Seager and Justin Turner have been two of the main reasons the Dodgers might challenge the all-time record for wins in a season. With Bryce Harper‘s injury, Anthony Rendon — who is basically Nolan Arenado but playing at sea level — might appeal to someone who wanted to vote for a Nationals position player. Of course, you could make a case that Max Scherzer has actually been Washington’s best player this year, and if you just go by runs allowed, it’s Scherzer who leads the NL in WAR this year.

Waters still not muddy enough for you?

Kris Bryant, last year’s winner, hit .292/.385/.554 and got 29 of the 30 first-place votes in 2016. This year, Kris Bryant is hitting .293/.405/.535, and as with Goldschmidt and Arenado, you can make the case that the Cubs wouldn’t make the playoffs without him — unlike last year, that is, when he had plenty of help from his supporting cast. The drivers of his big drop in WAR are fielding and baserunning, which are the variables that voters tend to trust the least. If you voted mostly for Bryant’s bat last year, it doesn’t look that different this year.

Biased towards up the middle hitters but not that impressed with Seager’s 19 home runs? Or want to discount him for playing on a team with too many good players? I’d like to introduce you to Charlie Blackmon, a center fielder hitting .333/.392/.611. Even after adjusting for Coors Field, Blackmon’s been a monster at the plate and ranks up near all the other non-Goldschmidt hitters in WAR. Of all the players playing an up-the-middle position this year, Blackmon has been the best hitter, so anyone who simply wants to adjust for defense and find a guy who hits like a first baseman while playing a premium spot, Blackmon is an appealing option.

And somehow, after naming nine legitimate candidates for the MVP award, we still haven’t talked about the league’s best hitter yet. That would be Joey Votto. Again. Votto is tied with Turner for the league lead with a 166 wRC+, but he’s done it in 135 more plate appearances. Anything you like about Goldschmidt’s bat, Votto can match: his .316/.448/.600 line is a little better than Goldy’s .320/.434/.600 line, and given Votto’s current run and his recent history of second-half ridiculousness, it wouldn’t be surprising if he opened that gap up a bit more by season’s end.

That’s 10 names with which you could easily fill a ballot, and really, all of them have at least some kind of argument for the top spot. Some arguments are stronger than others, but still, this is a remarkably crowded field. The list will undoubtedly narrow itself further — Harper and Clayton Kershaw already fell out of contention due to injuries, or else this would be even more ridiculous — as we get closer to when the votes are due, but I don’t envy voters who got handed an NL MVP ballot this year. My NL Rookie of the Year pick is going to be quite a bit easier.

Below is an updated summer top-100 prospect list. Above are links to the top-10 lists for teams in each of the six divisions. Those include notes on why some of these prospects have moved up or down on their respective org list. For detailed scouting information on individual players, check out the player’s profile page, which may include tool grades and/or links to Daily Prospect Notes posts in which they’ve appeared this season. For detailed info on players drafted or signed this year, check out our sortable boards. The preseason top-100 list is available here.

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/feed/109Corey Dickerson and the Best Bad-Ball Hittershttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/corey-dickerson-and-the-best-bad-ball-hitters/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/corey-dickerson-and-the-best-bad-ball-hitters/#commentsWed, 16 Aug 2017 20:44:34 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=261793While writing about Miguel Sano last week, I connected two thoughts that had laid dormant next to each other for a while.

How pitchers approach batters in terms of location is part of an endless loop of adjustments that makes judging a batter’s true talent difficult.

That confluence of ideas led to an innocuous enough question: could we adjust exit velocity for pitch location?

The answer is yes, of course we can. The next question, however, was much more interesting: what the heck does this measure?

With Andrew Perpetua‘s help, it was time to try and correct a player’s exit velocity for pitch location. My thinking at first was that pitchers generally try to avoid throwing down the middle, and if we’re looking at a player — like Sano early this season — who’s recorded an average exit velocity of 95 mph, maybe all he’s doing is capitalizing on mistakes. That would mean his exit velocity would return to earth once opposing pitchers stopped missing their spots.

So Perpetua grouped batted balls based upon how close they were in both location and pitch velocity. First he grouped balls that were very similar, within only one or two inches or one or two miles per hour. Then he grouped balls that were more different, within six inches or mph. All of the results were then combined and weighted based upon their similarity.

Once he had an expected outcome on each bin, he created a “league exit velocity” based on the pitch locations that a player had actually seen. With this having been established, we could then compare that expected league velocity to the league’s actual average to see which players have seen the most pitches down the middle that they should be banging.

Here are the players who appear on both ends of that list — or, in other words, the batters who saw the most and the fewest pitches in prime exit velocity locations. If you were going to laud Alex Avila‘s 90.2 mph exit velocity, it might make sense to point out that the league-average exit velocity on the pitch locations he’s seen this year was 89.0 mph and not the 87.2 the league saw on all pitches as a whole. He’s added just over 1 mph of exit velocity over league average, as you can see in his “Delta EV” column.

As you can see, I’ve labeled that rightmost column just “Difference,” because I’m not sure what exactly it indicates.

At first, I thought it might be a measure of plate coverage. A player with consistently higher exit velocities than expected at each location would be exhibiting good plate coverage. Take a look at Adam Jones, for example, who has nearly average exit velocity despite hitting balls that have a low expected exit velocity. Here are his exit velocities compared to league average in each bin, with red being better than league average and blue being worse. This looks like good plate coverage, no?

But let’s look on the opposite end of the spectrum, to Alex Avila. I wouldn’t say this looks like “bad” plate coverage. He’s got warm spots all over the zone except up and in.

Looks like a completely different skill set at play here, that has little do with “plate coverage” or “luck” based on location of the pitch.

Let’s look at one last heat map. This should make it clear what we may have actually captured here. Corey Dickerson has the lowest league-average exit velocity based on the location of the balls he puts in play. He swings at bad balls, in other words.

See what we’ve (maybe) captured? It’s a plate-discipline stat, expressed in exit-velocity outcomes. Dickerson is made to look better here because he manages nearly league-average exit velocity despite swinging at the worst balls in the majors when it comes to expected exit-velocity outcomes.

If you do this for the entire Statcast era, Salvador Perez, Corey Dickerson, and Pablo Sandoval rank third, second, and first, respectively, across the top of the leaderboards for the difference between their exit velocities and league-average exit velocities adjusted for pitch location. That’s your bad-ball leaderboard, really.

You go in looking for a way to adjust exit velocities for pitch location, and you end up with a plate-discipline stat that incorporates the ability to cover large swaths outside of the strike zone. You go in looking to remove luck from exit velocity, and you come out realizing, once again, that exit velocity is also a function of which pitches you swing at.