Matt Hollinshead: Out of all rookie QBs, Blake Bortles has best shot at success

Opinions went all over the place as to where and when Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles would be drafted. One week, he was projected to be a top-10 pick. The next week, there were doubts that he would even land in the first round.

Bortles went third overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars, meaning he only had to drive 140 miles from Orlando to head for his professional destination. Due to the chance to play locally, along with other circumstances, you can bank on Bortles having a successful career - more so than the likes of Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and the other incoming rookie quarterbacks.

Bortles has the prototypical physique of an NFL quarterback: 6-foot-5, 232 pounds. While some say size is an irrelevant factor (citing quarterbacks such as Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and even Johnny Football - all three are the 5-foot-11 to 6-feet range), it's totally relevant when mobility is not among your top characteristics. Bortles easily makes up for that.

Bortles can deliver the ball in the midst of pressure from opposing pass-rushers. Being taller helps with that because you must possess good field vision to read defenses and recognize when to strike if you're a quarterback. That's why Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are the face of NFL quarterbacks over the past decade. They're not only smart, decisive, productive and talented, but they're also big dudes (Brady is 6-foot-4, Manning is 6-foot-5).

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Sure, Bortles is a work in progress in playing with mobility - the latest trend for a quarterback over the past several years - but he is still an accurate passer throwing on the run. At the same time, Bortles has the presence of mind to get rid of the ball in a timely manner while evading defenders. And when the situation turns critical, he plays calmly.

Bortles also generated his share of notable victories, especially in clutch situations on the road. He helped UCF win at Penn State and Louisville. Those two wins helped the Knights, considered a mid-major football team, solidify a BCS bowl game appearance.

While he has occasional difficulties in securing the ball and has a wobbly looking release on the throw, Bortles' positive characteristics are enough to argue that he is the most pro-ready heading into the NFL. I think he still is, and he has the most potential of the rookie quarterbacks in the 2014 draft class.

Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel will bring his dynamic, heroic persona to the Cleveland Browns. I anticipate he will start within his first 2-5 years. I still am concerned about his future for three reasons:

1. Location. Cleveland has longed for a player to bring back NFL prominence, something they haven't had since they lost the AFC Championship game to the Denver Broncos on Jan. 11, 1987 (a game best known for "The Drive"). I hope Manziel can right the ship, but facing that level of pressure may be too daunting.

2. While he dazzles and inspires with the wacky, successful plays he comes up with on the fly and unscripted, he will have to adapt to play-calling from a coordinator. What will that look like? That's yet to be determined.

3. Manziel has a tendency to misjudge when to throw the ball. As a result, he hesitates in and outside the pocket. At times, he'd have no choice but to be conservative and run out of bounds after not finding an open target in time. There will be a time and place when that could present problems in the pros.

While Minnesota got a very good play-caller in Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, who possesses good field vision and a sufficient passing/mobility balance, the Vikings' constant quarterback changes in recent years could spell a short-lived tenure for Bridgewater.

Since former Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper left the team after the 2005 season, Minnesota has had at least three different starting quarterbacks (Tavaris Jackson, Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel) since then. While I believe Bridgwater has the best shot at breaking that recent trend working with new offensive coordinator Norv Turner, history leaves me skeptical.

If you assess the accumulative circumstances of this year's rookie quarterback class, Bortles has the most potential for a bright, successful career. Bortles will be the long term guy under center that Jacksonville has long desired since David Garrard played in teal, black and gold from 2002 to 2010. Bortles is also the guy who can help Jacksonville achieve bigger and better things moving forward.

It also helps that Bortles is a local product. After meeting Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley, Bortles was stoked about the idea of staying home to resume his football career.

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