The
saturation of mobile phone markets has resulted in rising costs for operators
to obtain new customers. These operators thus focus their energies on
identifying users that will churn so they can be targeted for retention
campaigns. Typical churn prediction algorithms identify churners based on
service usage metrics, network performance indicators, and demographic information.
Social and peer-influence to churn, however, is usually not considered. In this
talk, a new churn prediction algorithm is described that incorporates the influence
churners spread to their social peers. Using data from a major service provider
it is shown that social influence improves churn prediction and is among the
most important factors.