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Ashraf Ghani trailed Abdullah Abdullah in the first round but found his second wind in the form of a few million votes to claim victory. image taken from US embassy in Kabul's Flickr.

If preliminary results are to be believed — a big ‘if’ given his opponent's stormy statements on voter fraud– Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is likely to become Afghanistan's next elected president. Afghanistan's International Electoral Commission (IEC) stated today that eight million votes were cast in a tension-filled runoff between former Finance Minister Ghani and Former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah on June 16.

Contested victory

Currently Dr. Ghani, a Pashtun, is in the lead with 56% of votes, a margin Abdullah Abdullah, a part-Pashtun, part-Tajik popular among Afghanistan's non-Pashtun ethnic groups is unlikely to overturn, despite having led Ghani in the first round by 14 percentage points. As BBC Persian journalist Jamal Mousavi tweeted [fa]:

Before the announcement of the results, Ghani and Abdullah had been appearing to talk past each other as their supporters warred on social media. IEC head Zia ul-Haq Amarkhail was forced to step down after Abdullah's team claimed to have recordings of him ordering ballot box stuffing in Ghani's favour.

A truck states its support for Abdullah Abdullah (picture tweeted by @alibomaye. Abdullah Abdullah is the figure in the centre)

On the morning of July 7 Ashraf Ghani had stated that the votes of the people should be respected:

Stability of Afghanistan is in the stability of people. Hence, the will and votes of people must be respected: pic.twitter.com/ji73sq5A8v

With much at stake in Afghanistan's first democratic transfer of power it seems the question Global Voices asked back in April is as relevant as ever. As to the answer, much will depend on what Afghanistan's biggest loser, Abdullah Abdullah, and his millions of supporters, do next.