Issues Abound In Survey Of Illinois Voters

March 16, 1992|By Charles M. Madigan.

The cliche about modern politics is that no one discusses ``the issues``

anymore, that campaigns from the state house to the White House are constructed on a foundation of negative advertising and personality contests. That may sometimes be true, but the perception that there are no issues is wrong, particularly in 1992. In Illinois, and across the country, there is a remarkable debate under way that centers on some of the most significant issues of the era.

It takes place at the most basic level of politics in America-down among the electorate, in living rooms and on factory floors, in sports bars and at church socials. Abortion, the environment, the economy, America`s place in the world-all are issues on the nation`s agenda.

To measure this process, the Tribune surveyed 800 persons to identify which issues are most important to which classes of Illinois voters. The poll results were used to construct five classes of likely state voters.

The boundaries that define these groups are not so clear that everyone fits handily into each category, especially when voters are asked to respond to specific issues. But as a general guideline, the electorate of Illinois includes:

- Blue Collar Believers: These workers, and retirees, did well during the 1980s. They live throughout Illinois and make up about 22 percent of the population. Only 23 percent are Republicans, but most voted for Ronald Reagan and George Bush.

- The Disconnected: These are voters who still identify strongly with the Democratic Party of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John Kennedy. They are liberals, and proud of it, but no longer have a liberal party to call their own. Half live along the lakeshore or in Chicago`s suburbs. About a fifth live in Chicago`s black wards.

- The Contented: Some 23 percent of Illinois` population fits into this category. Seven in 10 believe President Bush can repair the economy. Bush will get 80 percent of their votes in a contest with any Democrat. Generally, they are people who have fared well over the Ronald Reagan-Bush years.

- The Disenchanted: A quarter of Illinois` population fits into this category. They believe they are worse off than they were two years ago and describe themselves as scraping to get by. A quarter live in Chicago`s ethnic wards, a quarter outside the city and the rest in the collar counties and north suburbs.

- The Home Fronters: Two-wage-earner households characterize this group, which makes up 17 percent of Illinois` population. Former Reagan and Bush voters, they are now angry and feel they have lost ground over the past four years. They are the most likely to have children. Most feel there is no difference between political parties.

The disparate elements of these groups might make potential coalitions seem impossible. But that perspective changes when one measures the groups`

responses to statements about specific issues

All groups were asked to react to an extensive series of statements about issues on a scale of one to seven, with seven signifying the strongest support and one, the weakest.

In almost a dozen important categories, the responses were so similar among all the groups that they could be read as strong support for a particular position.

It was no surprise that one of the clearest responses came to a question on the environment. For many years, cleaning up the environment was an issue almost married to the Democratic Party. But the response to the Tribune poll showed how much that has changed.

Only the Blue Collar Believers displayed reluctance when asked whether the environment should be protected, even if it means higher taxes. Disagreement about methods may still exist, but the era is over when Republcans automatically supported industry while Democrats embraced stiff regulation.

The suggestion that legislatures and Congress should limit the terms of incumbents also drew strong support, which was not too surprising. Term limits have been discussed extensively around the nation and have been approved in three states.

Only the Disconnected, liberals who undoubtedly viewed longevity in the Democratic Congress as clout, resisted the suggestion.

There is a general perception in the electorate that taxes are too high, but the strongest reaction to the statement ``People like me pay much more than our fair share in taxes`` came from the Disenchanted and the Home Fronters, probably a reflection of their general frustration with government and politics.

Economic questions, too, drew strong responses. The consensus: The economy is the driving force in this year`s presidential election.