The Republic's politics team discuss the #RedForEd movement, Ducey sending guardsmen to the border and a recording about school vouchers that is stirring conversation on April 10, 2018. Carly Henry/azcentral.com

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has not shown interest in raising taxes for education, noting teachers in 2017 saw a 4.3 percent increase in pay from 2016, following passage of Proposition 123 and additional state funds.(Photo: David Wallace/The Republic)

Teachers have discussed the possibility of staging a walkout since the #RedForEd movement began in early March. On Monday, they said for the first time they will do it.

But that promise of action hasn't appeared to move lawmakers much as they begin to discuss budget proposals. They say they are likely to go beyond the governor's proposal, but likely won't do enough to satisfy teachers.

"Some members(of the Legislature)would like to sweeten the pot," said Sen. John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills, Tuesday after attending an update from the state's Finance Advisory Committee.

"But certainly nowhere near the demand of 20 percent," said Kavanagh, who is chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. "That probably set back (teachers') cause more than helped it."

State bringing in more tax revenue than expected

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The voter-approved Proposition 301 six-tenths of a cent sales tax benefits various education programs. It is set to expire in 2021.

The Finance Advisory Committee update given Tuesday indicates state revenues will be another $46 million more than previously anticipated for fiscal 2018 and 2019. So far this fiscal year, state revenues are $262 million above forecast.

The governor's staff has said their projections for revenue already were more optimistic than the state's forecasters, but some lawmakers said the projections could mean more money is available for teachers.

"We've already counted on that," Kavanagh said, referring to the governor's revenue projections being higher than what state forecasters predicted months ago.

House Speaker J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, hadn't yet received a briefing on the updated state budget forecast, but said Tuesday that lawmakers are looking to do more for teacher raises than the governor proposed.

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"I think members will want to go as far as we can afford to go within the confines of a balanced budget," Mesnard said.

He reiterated a point the governor has made in recent days: Lawmakers only allocate money for districts, and those districts make the final decisions on who gets raises.

Mesnard said lawmakers have been considering legislation that would put stricter requirements on teacher pay, but districts have "been negative" to those proposals.

One idea floated among Republican lawmakers is a minimum teacher salary for the state.

Ducey sticks to budget proposal

Ducey was asked multiple times this week about the potential for teacher walkouts and whether raises greater than 1 percent were in order. He said repeatedly his budget provides for raises and has not suggested he is considering anything beyond his budget proposal.

"I want to see more money going to our teachers," Ducey said during a KTAR-FM (92.3) interview Tuesday afternoon as teachers marched outside. "We are going to get the maximum amount of funding into K-12 education that can go into their paychecks to solve this problem."

The governor has regularly reverted to his budget proposal when asked about the protests.

When doing so, Ducey doesn't cite the 1 percent raise in that budget, but it is the only guaranteed increase for teachers in that document. Lawmakers still would need to make that money permanent along with last year's 1 percent stipend to ensure they continue beyond 2018.

Every 1 percent, across-the-board raise for Arizona teachers is projected to cost about $30 to $34 million a year.

Deciphering the governor's numbers

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Marthana Hall, a math teacher at San Tan Charter School in Gilbert, leads chants during the state-wide teacher walk-in on April 11, 2018, in support of more educational funding. Tom Tingle/The Republic

Marthana Hall, a math teacher at San Tan Charter School in Gilbert, leads chants during the state-wide teacher walk-in on April 11, 2018, in support of more educational funding. Tom Tingle/The Republic

Cienega High School teachers, staff and students gather at the flagpole in unison to protest low pay and funding at the school, 12775 E. Mary Ann Cleveland Way, on April 11, 2018, in Tucson. Cienega participated with the state-wide walk-in protests before classes began. Mike Christy/Arizona Daily Star

Melanie Yarger, of Mesa and a a parent of a second-grader at San Tan Charter School in Gilbert, expresses her support for increased school funding during the state-wide teacher walk-in on April 11, 2018. Tom Tingle/The Republic

Teachers, staff and students at Cienega High School gather at the flagpole in unison to protest low pay and funding at the school, 12775 E. Mary Ann Cleveland Way, on April 11, 2018, in Tucson. Cienega participated with the state-wide walk-in protests before classes began. Mike Christy/Arizona Daily Star

Teachers walk arm-in-arm with students and parents into Tuscano Elementary School as they stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Stefanie Lowe, right, wipes away a tear as she talks with fellow teacher Nanette Swanson, as they join teachers, parents and students at Tuscano Elementary School to stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Shaun Stevenson, right, talks to other teachers, parents and students at Tuscano Elementary School as they stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

A teacher at Tuscano Elementary School joins dozens of teachers, parents and students as they stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Nanette Swanson pauses as she listens to another teacher at Tuscano Elementary School talk about the hardships of low pay as teachers, parents and students stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Teachers at Tuscano Elementary School stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Teachers at Tuscano Elementary School stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding as they walk into school on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Teachers at Tuscano Elementary School stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding as they arrive at the front entrance of the school on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Nanette Swanson, a teacher at Tuscano Elementary School, begins to cry as she joins other teachers, parents and students as they stage a "walk-in" for higher pay and school funding on April 11, 2018, in Phoenix. Teachers gathered outside Arizona schools to show solidarity in their demand for higher salaries staging "walk-ins" at approximately 1,000 schools that are part of a statewide campaign for a 20 percent raise and more than $1 billion in new education funding. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Ducey cites three figures with regard to his budget, all of which require explanation and none of which precisely address the money he proposes for raises.

The first is $1.7 billion, which is what Ducey says has been invested into K-12 education since fiscal 2015. This is the total increase in state funding for K-12 from all sources. Of that:

More than $300 million of that came from Proposition 123, which settled a lawsuit regarding the state's failure to comply with funding formulas.

Ducey also cites $400 million, a reference to the total increase in K-12 spending in his 2019 budget compared with 2018. The actual figure in Ducey's budget overview on this point is $389.4 million.Of that:

Only $34 million of that is earmarked for teacher raises of 1 percent.

The growth in students and inflation requires another $116 million included in that figure.

$88 million of it is for new school construction.

A $100 million chunk of that cash is "additional assistance" that districts can put toward teacher raises, though many superintendents say they have repairs and equipment that will suck up those funds.

The remainder is for building-renewal grants, technical education and "other" investments.

And finally Ducey frequently mentions a 9 percent increase in funds for teacher salaries. That figure is not a 9 percent raise.

It is a reference to the increase in spending since 2015 on teacher salaries, which has increased in part because the total number of teachers has increased.

Teachers in Arizona are following West Virginia and Oklahoma educators who revolted over low pay.

Since early March, Arizona educators have swarmed the state Capitol in protest and threatened to walk out if Ducey and the Legislature don't act on their demands for pay raises and the restoration of $1 billion in education funding cuts, among other things.