CV has been doing some investigative reporting, and it's come to the forefront that the "shooter" in Arizona could be a case of mistaken identity...

See??? It wasn't Sarah Palin after all (giving "Manchurian Candidate" code tips for people to go on shooting sprees)... Instead, what "set off" this poor fellow was having to do one too many interviews with this dude (on this cable business channel)...

Oh... Sorry... That was a fuzzy resemblance... Here's a better foto of the interviewer...

But what can I say? There are A LOT of "yo-yo" on TV (that's why I mainly watch sports)... Of course there are some as well, who like to calmly and rationally get to the MIDDLE of every situation, knowing that's where wisdon & reason lie...

And there are others, who take the time to sit down and listen to your viewpoint on the matter...

Then there are others, who are always mindful of the "words" they are using, and would never say anything potentially nasty of inciteful...

CV doesn't actually give a flying F*** about any of these people... This is SURVIVOR CAPITAL... Here, all I need to know is that there are a bunch of weirdos everywhere (of all political & social ranks)... The way we are going... Things in this country are going to end up like this someday...

(and I'm not interested in playing Kevin Bacon in this scenario)...

Even though Kevin Bacon is my HERO...

Hell... For all I know... Sarah Palin is RELATED (by six degrees of separation) to GIFFORDS... Just like Obama is related to Brad Pitt (does that link Obama to Tyler Durden as well)? CV might be related to Pelosi (and that would explain my sometimes "ODD" behavior)... Kevin Bacon himself taught me all this...

People, we're all in this race together, and WE'RE ALL going to make it to the finish line together, or WE'RE ALL going to perish in the process... Once again (a thing that is permissable on this blog - but not elsewhere)... IT'S YOUR CHOICE...

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I'm not going to disagree with you about the Oregon playcalling, but I don't that was the issue "per se" (IOW - there was something, in my mind, behind that)...

oregon was clearly trying to play "INSIDE OUTSIDE"...

Run a play straight up the middle (which is a really OLD SCHOOL tactic in football - if the other team has a guy like FAIRLEY in the middle, you run straight at him)... Kind of like Muhammad Ali with the "rope a dope" [getting George Foreman punched out])...

There were two reasons the strategy failed to work...

1. Thomas kept "sailing" the sideline passes (he got one tipped and picked off at the beginning of the game - and two more were high and almost picked off)...

I was SO pissed off that the 1st quarter ended with Oregon 3rd & 1 at the 2 yard line... Auburn's defense was exhausted and I think Oregon would have easily scored on the next play... But FUCKING TV (turns a "timeout" for anything into 5 minutes of commercials [on a nationally televised game])... Auburn got their breather, stopped the next play, and Oregon settles for 3 instead of 7...

Next... When Oregon stopped Auburn on the goal line, the first play they ran was an inside toss that gained 9 yards... It was flagged for a penalty (which set up the safety on the next play)... NO FLAG there, and the whole game changes... It was 11-7... next thing you know it's 11-9... Next thing you know, you're kicking off after the safety and the other team gets it going for a TD and you're down 16-11 at half time...

Momentum...

Lastly... In the 2nd half... Fucking Auburn used the "Cal" strategy... Every fucking 3rd down (when they needed a personnel change, some player on Auburn's defense was miraculously getting injured...) Players rest, substitution package comes in, stopped on downs...

I still think Oregon could have won, but they would have needed to overcome all those little nuances...

Now I'm looking to see if, in 3 years, they find that Cam Newton WAS in fact involved in "pay for play"... Not that I have anything against "him"... But it's what THE NCAA deserves...

"It can literally conjure up money at will, and arguably did exactly that when it bought about $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries to push down borrowing costs and boost the economy.

The Fed's unorthodox steps helped it generate record profits in 2010, allowing it to send $78.4 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department

So - it cost $2 trillion to "make" $78.4 billion... How much is it going to cost to "make back" that additional $1.92 trillion???

"Asked about the issue of potential losses during congressional testimony on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the risks were minimal. If liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet were to exceed its assets, it would only be so because of rising interest rates in the context of a thriving economy, he suggested."

So let me get this straight... BASICALLY, if the economy improves, then you guys are F***ed... Hmmm... I'll plan accordingly...

"It can literally conjure up money at will, and arguably did exactly that when it bought about $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries to push down borrowing costs and boost the economy..."+ and/or vs.

""Asked about the issue of potential losses during congressional testimony on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the risks were minimal. If liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet were to exceed its assets..."

anyone else see the Joke there?~~

cv--,

I don't mind the Quackers pick, thought it was a good vantage point, from which to watch the Game..

"For all cowards who did not put their life savings in the Banlgadesh stock market after yesterday's record plunge and subsequent halt, and obviously have no clue how modern markets work, we have one acronym for you: BTFD. To everyone else, who made 15% in one day and can now close the books for 2011, congratulations. A day after Brian Sack was rumored to be seen tweaking the Bangladesh stock exchange's 3 16 MHz 286 High Frequency Trading machines, which can execute a whopping 0.5 transactions per second, and lifting all 2 offers in Level 2 when put in Designated Market Maker mode, the Bangladesh stock exchange is surging, and 1,000% margin debt-laden speculator protesters who were rioting as recently as 24 hours ago, are basking in their newly rediscovered wealth effect..."

Speaking of JJC -- could someone tell me what the diagonal trend line things in this chart are? Are they fib fans? If so, what exactly is a fib fan? If not, then what? Thanks -- hanging my ignorant head in shame.

The impending death of Talbots is very sad for me. I was a huge fan for years, and they still are an easy place to go to for gifts for my mom, aunts, and assorted other female relatives. I miss the old Talbots. (Now I've revealed myself to be a true preppy.)

thanks for the spy view, CV.. lower highs in the SPX, but barely pennies difference.. will it get to 1279-1280.. i mean, what the heck! so close day after day.. and looking at the $wlsh.. you'd think the economy was running full steam ahead..

AA cheerfully trading at P/E = 100. An improvement on infinity, I suppose. Materials, miners, industrials, energy, tech (exports) will all be hit by a rising dollar environment. The domestic divvys (REITs, pharma, telecoms and utilities) will be ok. This equity rotation will be the play of 2011.

Watching yields and wondering, looking at TNX chart from Ra last night, do we tag the declining resistance line or do we go up through that and make a double top at 3.60 area or above?

Personally I like the latter scenario, gives us a close to 300 bp slope on 2s10s and we already have a 110 bps slope on 10s30s, so then it is fill yer boots with long bonds. We like the idea of lightening up on HY here and moving out of risk a little bit in credit. Spreads have tightened a lot on THE ECONOMY, but we all now that is a propaganda construct. Small biz owners know we are in the new normal.

HINGHAM, Mass. (AP) -- The Talbots Inc. on Tuesday lowered its guidance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year after a weak holiday season.

The guidance, coming after disappointing outlook a month ago, sent shares down 24 percent in pre-market trading to $5.70.

The cut is the latest sign that Talbots' plan to regain customers it lost during the recession -- by revamping merchandise and investing in advertising -- is failing to take hold. Talbots and other "missy" retailers -- clothing sellers that target women around their 40s -- were among the hardest hit during the recession. In an effort to improve results, Talbots last year pulled off a complex deal that let it reduce its debt and buy out its largest shareholder, Japanese retail company Aeon (U.S.A.) Inc., which held a 54 percent stake. The company, based in Hingham, Mass., also invested in a splashy advertising campaign that featured model Linda Evangelista.

But Talbots said that while it had "solid" sales during the busy shopping weekend after Thanksgiving, sales deteriorated in the last two weeks of December into January, despite aggressive markdowns by the retailer.

Talbots blamed weaker than expected customer response to new merchandise, high levels of markdowns in the sector and weather.

Revenue in the fourth-quarter is down 7 percent compared to a year ago, Talbots said.

The company now expects an adjusted loss for the quarter of 15 cents to 19 cents per share versus prior guidance for earnings of 5 cents per share to a loss of 3 cents per share. The latest projection is much worse than the loss of 2 cents per share analysts expect.

TLB is really a dog. I can only assume it is where it is b/c of ETF participation, i.e. it was dragged up by other retailers and the Gunning of The Spooz. There are stocks like this all over this market.

We see TBT capped at 40. It would only lift off on a real job recovery, you know, on THE ECONOMY. Rates at the long end will be capped around 5% at the absolute extreme or it is curtains for MBS, housing, banks.

Wonder if that's why the JPY is down so much today? Japanese investor (banks) diversification out of JGBs is beginning. Once this gets going it will mark the end of the two decades of Japanese deflation.

Short the yen and get long the EWJ on the next global equity correction is the view here. I won't go there yet b/c of the imminent Chinese tightening. It is out there.

Plosser said the Fed will probably have to start boosting interest rates, now at a record low near zero, before the unemployment rate has dropped to an "acceptable level." The Fed has held its key interest rates at a record low since December 2008 to help prop up the economy.

"A member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee suggested Tuesday that the Fed may need to scale back its $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program if the economy grows more quickly than expected.

But Charles Plosser, who becomes a voting member this year, is unlikely to sway the other members, based on speeches and minutes from the Fed's last meeting."

Once this gets going it will mark the end of the two decades of Japanese deflation.*

* Guess who gets to play the role of Japan for the next decade. That's right, class. You are a smart bunch....

Plosser, in addition to the guy from St Louis, is the designated hawkish misdirection voice when they want rates a little higher to spur risk-on trades. The doves return to the air waves when things get a little soggy in the economy or when they have a really weak Tsy auction.

"It is one thing for Krugman [et al] to be wrong about everything. He merely provides an easy target for those who actually understand that his policy solutions have crossed the imbecile twilight zone. However, when he engages in pointless hate-filled and fact-free rhetoric, it may be time for the NYT, in its endless pursuit of objective, impartial content of course, to consider severing ties with the man who is now a mockery to all but himself."

its funny that the reaction to the Bespoke data that's floating around showing that 94% of the S&P's gains last year came on the first day of the month and how some people are using this as "proof" that the market must be rigged.

We attribute the recent strength in MBIA shares to some relatively favorable litigation developments related to MBI's proposed reorganization. However, we continue to recommend that investors not add to positions. We still view MBI's financial health as strained, and believe some of its assumptions regarding certain loss recoveries may be too optimistic. On the favorable litigation developments, however, we lift our target price by $3 to $13, 1.3X tangible book that we estimate to be $9.58 a share at 9/10, and a premium to most property-casualty insurers.

I mean, C'MON MAN, we are sitting at 0.98% and inflation projections are 2% ish. This one might come out with a bit of a tail, and then we may get some follow-on selling at the long end.

I repeat, I do not like the front end. You are completely at the mercy of the BEN BERNANK, and there is no effing yield. Why would you ever hold this? Unless you were an insolvent bank and were ORDERED to?

NEW YORK — New York City is about to confront its third snowstorm in less than three weeks, a day after Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration admitted a series of mistakes in its handling of a Christmas weekend blizzard and promised immediate changes.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon, with the heaviest snowfall expected overnight.

New York City and its suburbs could get 6 to 12 inches of snow, with reduced visibility and wind gusts up to 35 mph, forecasters said. Bloomberg was scheduled to hold a briefing around midday.

The last snowstorm definitely had the feel of that movie. Except we didn't have the bit when the eye passed over and everything went to -150 C and the glass cracks in all the skyscrapers. That was extra cool.

CIM and NLY are weak ahead of the Tsy auctions W and Th, as MBB is slipping. Once rates stabilize and MBB stops falling, these stocks are going to be a big buy, as the rate outlook will improve substantially from here on renewed economic weakness, and they have been buying up MBS cheap down here.

Looking at nibbling on T and DF as well, perhaps for later in the week. A moderate broad market sell-off seems to be in the air.

..I suppose not having a degree in journalism has stunted my ability to decipher headlines, but how exactly would it read if Brown's cuts had been targeted at millionaires? (I know...but assuming the state assistance WAS spent on millionaires)

"Parking meters installed in front of all California Starbucks..rate is 800 dollars/hour under Brown's new proposal."

there are no calls for a return to bear market anywhere, the only one I saw was Andy's 2011 outlook post, that's what is coming after we top out imo, not a correction, it should blindside most thinking they'll have a place to hide out, the market has invited back that sort of complacency so it can take peoples money away.

the stage is set for this now that the economy has improved, the first thing off every equity bulls lips.

if only people paid any attention to the market instead of the Fed, they could see that people with sizeable sums of money are making outsized bearish options bets on equities and huge upside bets on VIX.

these aren't momo options trades for 10 contracts, they are happening in trade blocks of $3-10 million.

oh, and don't let me forget to add, 3rd year of the presidential cycle "since the end of world war II"

I mean, with so many people calling for it, it must be so.....right.

Also while I have a minute, almost as hilarious as the claims that since nearly all the gains came on the first day of the month last year and therefore markets must be rigged were these sentiments I saw railing about how "let the contrarians followers be many.....we'll sit back and make money......"

had to really slap the knee on that one

if the contrarians followers are "many", then by def. they aren't contrarian and the person writing this bashing contrarians, is in fact the contrarian. As for what's going on now, its the same consensual circle jerk that always exists.

also, another dumbass comment, that the tension between parties in this country must be worse than ever, and this recent killing helps "prove it"

CV -- thanks for pointing out my looming tax increases. Isn't Illinois grand? I better buy a lot more dips to pay for those extra taxes. As for my first born...right now at least, they can have her. I think she needs another round of IV fluids in about 4 hours and I really don't feel like going there again so soon, especially with all this snow.

if the charts Rosie presents hold any water, then on the other side of it US stocks are likely overvalued by at least 50%.

Also, this;

"If you have ever lived in Chicago, you would realize that Illinois steals from the poor (Downstate) and the middle class to give to the poor (in the city) and the rich (in the city). That's politics."

Silver looks like it is in a squeeze. Good day to not have the widow maker out and be waving it around. It is safely in the scabbard*.

* No doubt a relief to all.

Ben, I think commodity stocks and tech are overvalued by at least 50%. Other stocks are probably undervalued. Multiple contraction will take care of a lot of what is going to go on in the 2011-2012 meat-grinder.

HInt: If you are long SPY or RUT, it won't be pretty. Of note, the onset of the 1996 Japan bear was the onset of the period of extremely low rates at the long end in JGBs. It's later than you think. After the next rally in Treasuries it will get more and more difficult to generate volatility, make money or find yield. The nuclear winter approaches. Only THE BERNANK can fight it.

eventually the rest of the world is going to push back against the hot money flows from BB's bottom. Then it is a trip to global correction land. It is coming soon now, China has the trigger in its hands and can act this weekend, next weekend or over the Chinese New Year.

Hint: Some stocks will behave like commodities (clavadista) and others will behave a lot more like bonds. The trick will be to figure out which ones you have. For example, NZT is a boring old telecom, but it actually trades like EEM b/c of the currency aspect, so it is actually a DGDF trade. Confusing isn't it?

HY outperformed IG again today across the board. We also had a mild steepener after a not-so-good auction of 3y was followed by slightly suspicious buying of the short end (to support B/D's brand new purchases at 1.03%?) after a POMO in the 7-10y range. Tomorrow's thrills and spills include a 10y auction at 1pm and the release of the next Ponzi, sorry we mean POMO, schedule at 2pm.

We sold TIP today b/c we think that long duration will take a trip to the woodshed tomorrow and Thursday as we go into auctions of 10s and 30s and a PPI release.

We are 22% long HYG, 6% TIP, 3% LQD and hedged with 16% TBT. We are now looking to gradually offload HYG and will be reducing our position back down to 15% on strength, while looking to transition into LQD, AGG and TLT - over the next 3-4 weeks, perhaps?

Food is more expensive in Beijing than it is in Boston. Think about that and about the relative levels of salaries, then think about their housing market. We think we have it bad here, but this is why I tell you that the Japanese deleveraging decade would be the BEST possible outcome. China is going to blow up and it is going to be very ugly.

The comments about working for the Chinese were interesting. My point is that I think we are massively over-rating the ability of the Chinese economy to lead or sustain a global recovery.

Their ability to do large modern engineering projects rapidly not withstanding, this is in every way a poor country that has had a rich elite strapped on top of it for show while the workers toiled, and when this happens (USA, 1920s) the results are almost always quite unfortunate.

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

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This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."