NDP on top as Liberals sag in B.C.

Christy Clark, B.C.’s Liberal Premier, has failed to stem the growing appeal of the provincial Conservatives to centre-right voters, a new poll suggests.

The survey by Forum Research Inc. found 34% of British Columbians support the New Democratic Party, while her governing Liberals and the Conservatives are in a dead heat at 23% The Green party trails with 15%.

Ms. Clark’s backers in the B.C. Liberal nomination contest this year believed she could revive the party’s brand, which had been battered under her unpopular predecessor, Gordon Campbell.

But the Forum Research survey found she has been unable to stop the move of Liberal voters to the resurgent Conservatives under their new leader, John Cummins.

The poll findings are consistent with results from other recent political polls, which show the Conservatives cutting into Liberal support.

Mr. Bozinoff said while the NDP is hanging on to its core support of 30% to 35%, the B.C. Liberal Party has seen a steady erosion of its base.

“The problem … is that they are in the middle and they bleed both ways,” he said.

“They are pinned down on both sides. We saw that happen to the federal Liberals in the recent election.”

The pollster cautioned the survey is a snapshot of current voter attitudes and the B.C. Liberals have plenty of time to improve their status before the scheduled election in May 2013.

The Forum Research poll also found strong discontent with Ms. Clark herself. Fewer than one in three voters – or 29% – approves of her job performance, compared to 45% who disapprove and 27% with no opinion.

In contrast, Adrian Dix, the NDP leader, has an approval rating of 37%, with 28% disapproving and 35% without an opinion.

Mr. Bozinoff said Mr. Dix is well-placed to improve his standing, given that “don’t know” respondents typically come to reflect the opinions of those voters who do have an opinion.

“Dix’s approval rating is higher than his disapproval rating so he’s got a good base to grow from,” he said.

The survey also suggests the growing popularity of the provincial Conservatives is the result of disenchantment with the Liberals, rather than because of Mr. Cummins’ leadership.

His approval rating is only 23%, overshadowed by the 32% who disapprove and the whopping 45% who have no opinion.

“The B.C. Liberal party has tried to reinvent itself with a new leader,” said Mr. Bozinoff. “But there is just too much baggage.”

Since taking over in May, Mr. Cummins has been busy travelling around the province, pushing his brand of right-wing populism.

The Tory leader, who represented the riding of DeltaRichmond East in parliament for 18 years, has been criticized by former federal Conservative colleagues for joining the provincial Tories.

They have argued a revived B.C. Conservative Party could split the centre-right vote and give power to the NDP – a fear backed up by the Forum Research poll results.

The survey also found support for the NDP was significantly higher among voters aged 35 to 64, while support for the B.C. Liberals was higher among those aged 65 and older.

The telephone survey of 1,045 British Columbians was conducted on Dec. 15. The sample has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.