GOLDMAN: Here Are Our Top 8 Trades For 2015

Goldman Sachs' global macro team has just released its top trade
recommendations for 2015.

These trades are not for everyone. They involve currencies,
commodities and bonds. They also employ derivatives like options.

The underlying themes to these trades, however, telling.

"The trades crystallise the idea that the US economy, which is
ending 2014 on a strong note, will continue to expand at an
above-trend rate," explain Goldman analysts led by Francesco
Garzarelli. "This should progressively drive up real rates, and
lead to an appreciation of the Dollar. On long-run historical
comparisons, the greenback is still a ‘cheap’ currency on a
trade-weighted basis."

On Europe: "They are also geared to the notion that Euro area
economic activity will start to see the benefits of an
increasingly expansionary monetary policy, guided by the ECB’s
proactive pursuit of a larger balance sheet. A mild relaxation of
the fiscal stance (in the bigger economies individually and at
the supranational level) and structural reforms should also
support domestic demand."

On "the New Oil Order": "A third ‘theme’ that runs through the
trades is what we have dubbed ‘the New Oil Order’ in our
Commodity Research. An expansion and redistribution of supply
should keep headline CPI inflation lower (providing central banks
more leeway to keep or expand monetary accommodation), further
support disposable income growth in the advanced economies and
lead to a greater differentiation across the emerging economies,
most evidently along the oil dependency spectrum."

Without further ado:

Top Trade #1: EUR/$ downside via a one-year EUR/$ put
spread.

Top Trade #2: 10-year US Treasuries above 3% but not
below 2% in mid-2015, through cap and floor spreads at zero
cost.