Syria

•Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has threatened Syria with retaliation for shooting down a military jet, and warned that Turkish armed forces will respond to any Syrian encroachment on the border.

•Nato secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the alliance stands by Turkey but is not considering a military response.

•At least six people are reported to have been killed in the suburbs of Damascus in heavy clashes between rebels and the army.

•UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous told the security council that increasing danger has made it impossible for the observers in Syria to consider resuming operations at the moment, Reuters reports.

•The head of Syria's national Olympic committee, General Mowaffak Joumaa, said it would be "an honour" to be banned from the London Games, since he is the victim of a "fabricated media campaign".

Egypt

•Defeated presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq left Egypt for the UAE early today – just hours after the country's prosecutor general opened an investigation into allegations that he wasted public funds as a minister under Mubarak.

•Reform advocate Mohamed ElBaradei confirmed that he had meetings over the weekend with the military council amid speculation that he could play a role in Morsi's new government.

Tunisia

•There is growing speculation that President Moncef Marzouki may resign in protest at the government's decision to extradite former Libyan prime minister Baghdadi Mahmoudi.

4.48pm:Egypt: A language school in Cairo (the sort that teaches Arabic to foreigners) has circulated an email reassuring customers about Morsi's election. Here is an extract:

Amongst those viewing developments from a distance, some concerns have arisen regarding the fact that Mr Morsi is from an Islamic political party and have asked whether this means that Egypt is on its way to becoming Iran? In short, the answer is "no".

Mohamed Morsi is a US-educated businessman and engineer. His policy is to represent all Egyptians, regardless of religion or social background. He is currently seeking to establish a unity government comprised of Muslims and Christians representing all stands of the political spectrum. He has already entered into discussions with Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei for the role of prime minister.

The stock market has responded well and bookings in the tourist industry have also improved in the last few days; all signs that point to Egypt being open for business as usual.

In short, the mood here is one of cautious excitement and, above all, relief, that stability is beginning to return and life will get back to normal.

4.37pm:Syria: UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous told the security council today that increasing danger has made it impossible for the UN observer mission to consider resuming operations at the moment, Reuters reports citing a council diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ladsous also told the security council that the Syrian government has barred the observer mission from using satellite telephones, a key tool for their work, the diplomat said.

The head of the observer mission in Syria, General Robert Mood, announced on 16 June that he was suspending operations due to the increasing risks to the 300-strong force of military observers, who have been targeted with gunfire and bomb attacks.

4.12pm:Syria: A resident of the upmarket Barzeh neighbourhood of north-east Damascus describes hearing explosions and witnessing a raid this morning.

Speaking via Skype, the man who did not want to be identified, told the Guardian:

I heard three or four explosions, one of them was in my neighbourhood, the others were distant. The security forces and troops were raiding my neighbourhood. I saw a house burning. There were snipers and an anti-aircraft machine gun mounted on a military vehicle. They arrested many people in my area.

Now they have withdrawn. It is quiet now.

We see many indicators here on the ground that they are losing grip. Day after day, the Free Syrian Army troops are moving closer to the city.

Inside Damascus the security forces are fortifying their positions. They don't leave their stations. For the last two months life in Damascus has not been normal. Security compounds have turned into fortresses. You can see troops everywhere. It is like a city with martial law now.

3.51pm:Lebanon: Gunmen – believed to be Shia supporters of the Assad regime in Syria – put up roadblocks, burned tyres and fired into the air in downtown Beirut during the early hours of this morning, the New York Times reports.

The disturbances came after a Shia man was arrested on Monday on suspicion of firebombing the offices of New TV, a station critical of Assad's government. The arrested man, named as Wissam Alaaeddine, is believed to be a former member of the Lebanese Shia Amal movement.

According to the Beirut Daily Star the attacks came after New TV interviewed controversial Sunni Sheikh Ahmed Assir who allegedly made threats against Amal leader Nabih Berri and Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. New TV had apologised for Assir's remarks.

[This is a guest post by Kouichi Shirayanagi]

Photograph: Heinz-Peter Bader/REUTERS

3.29pm:Syria: Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (left) will attend a meeting this Saturday on the Syrian crisis after a request from international envoy Kofi Annan, Reuters reports.

"Sergei Lavrov has officially accepted the invitation to come to the actual meeting in Geneva on Saturday, June 30," UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin told reporters ahead of a closed-door meeting of the security council on Syria.

Syrians may have deliberately been sending Turkey a message, to back off.

It was a stupid move. As long a Syria did not engage in hostilities with other states in the region, it was teflon, since Russia and China were protecting it at the UN. But now that it has fired on a Nato plane, it has offered Turkey and its colleagues a legal way to use force.

I don't think either Turkey or other Nato members will be at all happy to be drawn into military action in Syria. (Nor do I think that would be a good idea). But they might be drawn into creating a humanitarian corridor at Hatay in Turkey, and guarding it from Syrian attack.

By its unwise aggression against Turkey, Syria may have internationalised its civil war, something it and its allies had desperately been trying to avoid.

Moreover, if Turkey really does stop helping with electricity exports to Aleppo, that step could contribute to further discontent in one of the few major cities where protests have been muted and somewhat infrequent.

• Shafiq arrived at Cairo international airport 15 minutes before the departure of his plane.

• Employees from the public relations department [of the airport?] gave him a send-off as others gathered around him in protest.

• Shafiq was transported to the plane in a private car while his daughters arrived on a shuttle bus.

2.48pm:Egypt: Reuters is reporting that a court has overturned the controversial decree allowing the military to arrest civilians. There are no details as yet.

The decree had been viewed by many as a back-door way of reintroducing the long-standing emergency law which was allowed to lapse earlier this year.

2.31pm:Syria: The number of people killed in Syria has increased to 38, according to an email update from Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

It claimed 10 were killed in the suburbs of Damascus, after clashes in the Qudsayya suburb were followed by an army bombardment.

It also said one of those killed was shot by sniper fire in the Jobar area.

The local activist group, the Revolution Council of Damascus named six of those killed in Qudsayya, and circulated footage showing their bodies.

The umbrella opposition group, the Local Co-ordination Committees in Syria, claimed 44 people have been killed today, including 20 in the suburbs of the capital.

2.15pm:Syria: French support for a western military intervention in Syria is waning, an opinion poll showed today, with 52% of respondents in favour against 65% in Spain and a minority in Germany and Italy.

The survey by pollster Ifop found that respondents in all four countries were less in favour of having their own armies participate in any action, Reuters reports.

French support for action slipped from 58% in a survey by the same pollster three weeks ago.

In Germany, only 45% of those surveyed approved of the west taking military action in Syria, while in Italy the figure was just 43%. In both cases some two-thirds of respondents were against their own country getting involved.

1.47pm:Egypt: The Washington Post has a video clip of yesterday's meeting between the military council and president-elect Mohamed Morsi. An awkward moment, with interesting body language.

1.42pm:Syria: Activists in the outskirts of Aleppo say that 280 soldiers defected today in Idlib near the main highway leading to Aleppo, al-Jazeera reports.

There is no independent confirmation but if the report is correct it would be one of the largest mass defections so far.

According to the activists cited by al-Jazeera, there were clashes between the defectors and the Syrian army. One helicopter was allegedly shot down and six tanks destroyed.

1.34pm:Syria: Iran is not on the same side of the Syrian conflict as the US and its allies, but it does have a big stake in ending the bloodshed and finding a political solution to the crisis, Iranian journalist Mohammad Ataie argues in an article for Comment is free.

"This is common ground that should not be ignored in any genuine initiative to stop the unrelenting bloodshed," he writes.

The Islamic republic has stood firmly behind the Syrian regime in the expectation that President Assad would be serious about reform – and is now showing signs of disappointment, Ataie says.

Iranian leaders have repeatedly defended their Syrian stance by emphasising that Assad is intent on implementing reforms and that his reform plans enjoy the backing of a majority of Syrian people.

But, particularly since the recent parliamentary election in Syria, there has been an increasing sense of frustration in Tehran with the sluggish Assad-led political reforms.

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1.22pm:Syria: The head of Syria's national Olympic committee, General Mowaffak Joumaa (left), has told a newspaper it would be "an honour" to be banned from the London Games, since he is the victim of a "fabricated media campaign".

In a statement published today by the Syrian newspaper al-Baath, Joumaa said if such a ban was issued, "it would be an honour for me as a Syrian citizen who loves his people and homeland".

"If Britain issues such a decision under political pretexts and other illusions and justifications, then its objective will be to pressure Syria in all fields, including sports."

The Associated Press adds:

He stressed that sport, like anything else in Syria, was subject to pressures and conspiracy "to undermine the steadfastness and unity of the Syrian people."

However, he said, all Syrian athletes stood behind the process of reforms and modernisation led by Assad. About 10 Syrian athletes are due to compete in London.

1.01pm:Bahrain: The government says it will pay $2.6m to 17 families over deaths last year during protests, Reuters reports.

"Disbursement of compensation to the families of 17 deceased persons has begun in keeping with the implementation of the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI)," said a government statement citing a justice ministry official, adding this amounted to $153,000 per individual.

It gave no details on who the recipients were.

The BICI, an investigative body head by international legal experts, said in November 35 people died during the unrest, which began in February 2011 after revolts in Egypt and Tunisia.

•Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said the alliance stands by Turkey, but confirmed it is not considering a military response. He said he did not expect the dispute between Turkey and Syria to escalate. "Should anything happen, allies will remain seized of developments. We closely monitor the situation, and if necessary we will consult and discuss what else could be done," Rasmussen said (see 10.50am).

•The US has accused the UN of a "colossal failure" over Syria as the security council prepares for another briefing on suspending UN monitoring mission. The UN is considering cutting the size of the monitoring mission, according to diplomats.

Tunisia

•There is growing speculation that President Moncef Marzouki may resign in protest at the government's decision to extradite former Libyan prime minister Baghdadi Mahmoudi. According to Tunisia Live, 60 members of Tunisia's Constituent Assembly have signed a petition in protest against the decision.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says six were killed in the suburbs of the Damascus, out of a deathtoll of 23 so far today.

Its tally includes the death of three Syrian soldiers in a car bomb attack in Idlib.

11.41am:Syria: Is Erdogan suggesting some form of safe zone inside Syria by threatening to target Syrian soldiers approaching the border?

AP quoted him saying:

The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed. Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria by posing a security risk and danger will be regarded as a threat and treated as a military target.

11.38am:Egypt: There are reports this morning that defeated presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq has left Egypt for Abu Dhabi in a hurry.

Citing an unnamed Cairo airport official, AP says Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister flew out of Egypt at dawn, just hours after the country's prosecutor general opened an investigation into allegations that he wasted public funds during his eight-year-term as a civil aviation minister under Mubarak.

The official says Shafiq was accompanied by his three daughters and grandchildren.

Less than 24 hours after Ahmed Shafiq lost the presidential contest to Mohamed Morsi, several lawyers have filed complaints with the office of the prosecutor against Mubarak's last prime minister charging him with corruption.

A high-level judicial source said that councillor Osama El-Seidi, a Justice Ministry investigator, will receive this week the report prepared by experts in the Illicit Profiteering and Real Estate Agency who have examined procedures for the allocation of land sold by the Cooperative for Construction and Housing for Pilots, which was headed by Ahmed Shafiq in the 1990s.

11.22am:Syria: The EU has imposed a travel ban on Assad spokeswoman Bouthaina Shaaban as part of its 16th round of sanctions against Syria, Reuters reports.

European Union added the Syria International Islamic Bank (SIIB) and Syria's national oil transport company to its list of targeted groups, according to its official journal, where EU laws are published.

"From 2011 to 2012, SIIB surreptitiously facilitated financing of 150 million dollars on behalf of the Commercial Bank of Syria," the EU announcement said.

The bank has 20 branches and three offices in Syria and has already been sanctioned by the US Treasury, which has accused the bank of helping Syria's state-owned Commercial Bank to evade U.S. counter-proliferation sanctions.

The bloc also added a travel ban against Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Assad who has served as a government spokeswoman.

A number of Syrian government bodies were also named in the sanctions list, including the defence and interior ministries, the national security bureau and the national radio and television corporation.

We heard previous statements made by the Nato that they have no intention of military intervention in Syria. If the aim of the meeting is aggressive in nature, I want to reassure everyone that the Syrian territories, waters and airspace are sacrosanct for the Syrian army.

The North Atlantic Council has met at Turkey's request to hold consultations within the framework of Article 4 of the Washington Treaty which states that "the Parties will consult whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

The North Atlantic Council discussed the shooting down of a Turkish aircraft by Syria. We consider this act to be unacceptable and condemn it in the strongest terms. It is another example of the Syrian authorities' disregard for international norms, peace and security, and human life.Our thoughts at this difficult time are with the missing Turkish aircrew, their families and their loved ones. We continue to follow the situation closely and with great concern, and will remain seized of developments on the South-Eastern border of NATO.

The security of the Alliance is indivisible. We stand together with Turkey in the spirit of strong solidarity.

10.50am:Syria: Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said Nato stands by Turkey, but it will not immediately retaliate if Syria attacks another Turkish aircraft.

Speaking at a press conference after Nato's meeting Rasmussen said:

I would expect that such an incident won't happen again. Should anything happen, allies will remain seized of developments. We closely monitor the situation, and if necessary we will consult and discuss what else could be done ...

Allies have expressed their strong support for and solidarity with Turkey. We will remain seized of developments.

It is my clear expectation that the situation won't continue to escalate. What we have seen is a completely unacceptable act. And I would expect Syria to take all necessary acts to avoid such events in the future.

10.41am:Syria: Turkey has suggested it will retaliate against Syria, by stating that it has changed the rules of engagement with its southern neighbour, AP reports.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkish Armed Forces "will respond to all violations on the Syrian border."

He said Syrian helicopters have violated Turkish airspace five times recently, without Turkish response.

Syria insists that the Turkish plane violated its air space. But Turkey disagrees, saying that though the plane had unintentionally strayed into Syria's air space, it was inside international airspace when it was brought down on Friday.

They are looking for leverage. The further we get away from this incident [the shooting down of Turkish jet by Syria], the less likely we are to see Turkish bombers flying into Syria to take retaliation. It is going to be played out at a diplomatic and sanctions level.

The latest high-level defections from the Syria military may embolden others to follow suit, but key officers remain loyal, Martin said.

There have been moves by the Saudis to indicate that they will start to pay the salaries of FSA officers and soldiers. That is something that is permeating around the ranks of the FSA inside Syria. There is the feeling that something is coming in terms of a critical mass of defections. But we are not at that point yet.

The Alawite officer corp remains very solid, as does the inner sanctum - the ruling clan. We have seen no defections of any note of either of those two areas.

On the latest attacks around the capital, Martin added:

Damascus still remains reasonably well under the control of the regime. The two key divisions in the Syrian army are responsible for the protection of the capital. They are holding firm. They are very loyal. There are skirmishes and guerrilla attacks in the capital, but they are more nuisance value than anything. It doesn't mean the capital is about to fall. It is still very much the hub of the regime's power. Aleppo, the commercial centre, is the second hub. Neither are showing any real risks of falling at this point. Although the agitation levels, the violence levels, are steadily increasing in both areas.

Rebels are getting supplies of small arms and ammunition across the Turkish borders, Martin pointed out.

They are proving reasonably decisive in a series of running battles with regime forces. They are not enough to tip the balance, but they are starting to do more than keep the Syrian military guessing.

10.31am:Syria: Amid reports of growing numbers of defections from the Syrian military, the government news agency relates the story of Ahmad Omar Said, a Palestinian who claims that he was kidnapped and forced to pose for photographs pretending to be a defected army colonel.

Two gunmen on a motorcycle intercepted me, tied my hands and blindfolded me ... later they took me to unknown farm," Said told the Syrian TV in an interview broadcast Monday.

He said that the gunmen put him in a room, beat him and asked him to bear a weapon and claim that he is a defected Army colonel ... later they photographed him after giving him a rifle.

"The armed group contacted my family by phone, claiming that they are from the so-called the free army, asking my family: do you want to send him back in a box or torn apart in sacks ..." Said added.

10.16am:Tunisia: There is growing speculation that President Moncef Marzouki (left) may resign in protest at the government's decision to extradite former Libyan prime minister Baghdadi Mahmoudi.

According to Tunisia Live, 60 members of Tunisia's Constituent Assembly have signed a petition in protest against the decision.

There is a possibility that Marzouki will resign in response to the extradition of Mahmoudi without his consultation and signature. This is a transgression on Marzouki's prerogatives. We consider this decision to be illegal and illegitimate. An objection will be delivered to the Constituent Assembly in protest of this.

Mahmoudi was the last prime minister of Libya under Muammar Gaddafi and publicly supported the Libyan government's crackdown on demonstrators throughout the Libyan revolution.

Mahmoudi escaped from Tripoli after the city fell to opposition fighters in August last year. He was later arrested in Tozeur, Tunisia, and charged with crossing the border illegally.

The dispute over his extradition had previously been a point of contention between the Tunisian and Libyan governments. Some in the Tunisian government opposed his extradition believing that he would not be granted a fair trial and his life could be in danger in Libya.

Others, led by prime minister Hamadi Jebali of the Ennahda party, supported the extradition arguing that the Libyan government had given a verbal guarantee to respect human rights and give Mahmoudi a fair trial.

[This is a guest post by Kouichi Shirayanagi]

10.01am:Syria: As fallout from the Turkish warplane incident continues, Nato will be discussing it in Brussels and prime minister Erdogan is addressing the Turkish parliament.

Tim Marshall of Sky News is not expecting fireworks from either meeting:

The situation in Syria represents a colossal failure by the Security Council to protect civilians.

For over a year, this council has not been willing to protect the Syrian people from the brutal actions of their government ... It is a shame that this Council continues to stand by rather than to stand up.

"With violence increasing, the most likely option for the United Nations is to reduce or eliminate the (unarmed) military component of Unsmis (UN Supervision Mission in Syria) while keeping a civilian component in place as a kind of liaison operation," a senior Western envoy said on condition of anonymity. Another council diplomat corroborated his remarks.

Among the other options being considered, envoys said, are closing it down completely, leaving it as is, or increasing the number of monitors and possibly arming them.

But there is little appetite for those other options in the case of Unsmis, which said on 16 June it was suspending its operations due to increased risks to the lives of the observers, who have been targeted with gunfire and bombings since they began deploying in April, council diplomats say.

"If there's no change, it's hard to imagine leaving it as is, turning it into a peacekeeping force with a mandate to protect civilians, or telling everyone to go home," a diplomat told Reuters. "More likely Unsmis will remain at some level in case a political process or serious negotiations begin."

8.15am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. The main themes today look set to be: Nato's meeting about Syria's attack on a Turkish jet; continuing defections among higher echelons of the Syrian military; and president-elect Mohamed Morsi's formation of a cabinet in Egypt.

With the defection of the airplane and these people, regardless of whether they are important themselves — you can lose a plane or two — what must be a concern is the establishment of a pattern and a precedent. So far none of this is significant; there are hundreds of generals in the Syrian Army, but when the dam begins to crack, it starts with a trickle.

He repeatedly stated that he saw himself as president of all Egyptians. He spoke of Christians and women – knowing they have special reason be wary of an MB man. He said many of the things we wanted him to say. He spoke of our murdered young people, and of the injured and their families; of freedom, human rights and social justice; of Egyptian sovereignty and interests. And as I listened I felt more and more hopeful.