Nah. Guys who love mechanical watches will always be around. A smartwatch is a very different animal.

I also disagree with one of the premises in the article, that watches are "passe" because people just use phones to check the time. A mechanical watch, new or vintage, does so, so much more than just telling us the time. It makes a statement on the wrist, among many other things.

That's like saying a car's only function is to get us from point A to point B. If that were the case, why wouldn't everyone just drive a Honda? (Nothing wrong with Hondas, of course, but you get the point.)

If one prediction in the closing paragraph of that article comes true, the price of vintage Swiss watches of all stripes could rise a good deal. If you’re holding a large collection, all the better for you.

“As time ticks ever forward things will change. The once mighty Swiss houses will sink under the weight of their accreted laurel-resting...”

But I think the other half of that paragraph is out of touch...

“...and Apple will move on to embedded brain implants and leave watches behind.”

At least now you don't have to have your phone on and in your pocket....but I digress.

I can't quite get used to the idea of wearing an oversized black Chiclet on my wrist...not to mention the rest of the cheezball appearance of the straps and now the bad cheap aftermarket straps that go with them.

Being a watch aficionado my opinion should be biased, but I have to confess that all around me the youngsters doesn't use wrist watches. All they use their mobile phones as to see time or to measure it.

While there will be always a certain demand for old fashioned mechanical watches, I think that the days of the quartz watch industry are gone in the next few years as they will not be valuable nor necessary.

It has happened before with many devices or accesories. When I was a child, my most valuable possesion was a Sheaffer fountain pen I won as a painting contest price. By the time, both my father and all his friends had one or another fountain pen, being Sheaffer, Montblanc or S.T. Dupont. It was a sign of both good taste and good wealth. 50 years on and almost no people around me still has one, if you have luck they still use a good quality ballpoint pen.

The same happened with cigar lighters or shaving razors. Times are changing and while there will always been hardcore aficionados, the future is not on our beloved watches side.

There is no greater fan of mechanical watches than I, but the reality is, there is a generational shift in the watch world happening before our eyes. I too began to insert the cranial section into the sand, then something become apparent.

In 10-20 years, a 15 year old will have no perception of what a mechanical watch is because their Parents wore a smart watch ! Many of these online discussions on this matter always resort to “ there will always be people interested in conventional wrist watches”. Well that argument has no merit when those “people” have not been exposed to such. Most (not all) here wear a watch because their parents, or their grandparents did so. But what if they hadn’t ? Would you be here now ? Now, if your parents and grandparents wore electronic devices on their wrist instead, would you be here ?

This is not to say that all the traditional watch industry is going to disappear, but the damage to such could be far worse than the “quartz movement”. The potential is present for 50% of watch manufacturers to fold, sell, merge, etc........

To save the industry, watch manufacturers should remove their head from the sand and develop some sort of hybrid mechanical watch for this new segment of buyers. A fully mechanically driven piece, where the rotor and mainspring also generate an electrical current, which can be stored internally. This would power all interfaces/functions of the piece. The dial would almost look like a conventional dial, yet be a sort of operator screen when activated via voice, possible bezel, or even crown. There has actually been a few renderings of such recently, but of course everyone laughed them out ! Remember when we all said electric cars would never happen ? Remember when we laughed at the thought of a self-driving car ? Buggy manufacturers said automobiles were a “follie” too. Etc ................................

It's always hard to predict the future. 100 years ago, there were still a lot of folks driving horse carriages, but they knew their days were numbered because of the popularity of the automobile. There was news this week that fusion-generated electricity is likely to be a reality by 2025 (six different groups developing it globally, etc.). So, the days of internal combustion are numbered, as were the days of the horse. There are still horses around. I think I derive great comfort from my NECKTIE. These remain popular, in corporate and civilian sectors. They serve no purpose other than as a fashion-accent. I'm hoping that wristwatches will become the neckties of the next 100 years. Unfortunately, it is likely that at some time, the group of individuals buying wristwatches(neckties) will be smaller than the supply available, which will drive prices down. Meanwhile, inflation drives prices upward, maintaining the value to some extent.

As a vintage watch collector/enthusiast/hobbiest/etc. I'm more than happy to let the "new watch" vs. new smart watch buyers, and the companies who make them, fight it out. 'Cause as far as I can see, it has no bearing on what we're all about (ie. bad-ass vintage watches)

As a vintage watch collector/enthusiast/hobbiest/etc. I'm more than happy to let the "new watch" vs. new smart watch buyers, and the companies who make them, fight it out. 'Cause as far as I can see, it has no bearing on what we're all about (ie. bad-ass vintage watches)

Eventually, the vintage market could very well be affected. I’m sure there was a time when vintage pocket watch collectors said “ those new fangled wrist watch abominations will have no bearing on us”.

The younger generation may not be wearing mechanical watches now but in time as they grow older, become more cultured, educated and in most cases higher earning people many will come to understand the beauty, function, class and basically what marvels mechanical watches are and they will make the switch.
While I have mostly worn watches my whole life it was only as I got older that I gravitated towards mechanical and understanding what they were all about.
When I was young I wore the smart watches of my time, digital quartz, calculator watches, TV remote control watches etc.

I strongly believe that the market and our hobby is changing - and will change dramatically in the next 20 years.

Personally, I would love to see a mechanical watch with a smart bracelet. Plenty of real-estate to work with - especially with flexible screens which are already here.

At the same time, for us, I think the change is already here.
1) On this forum, vintage discussion is 1/10 the size of the modern forum. On the other forum, frequency of posting is so low, that's it's actually sad.
2) the prices for a run-of-the mill Rolexes has not been moving much (as far as I can see); Really old pieces (BB and earlier) don't bring what they used to and boy's size watches are not desired by anyone (sorry for over generalization)
3) 'Desired' pieces and perfect pieces skyrocketed - but can burst just as quickly as the BubbleBack bubble of the 80s/90s.

To me, this is a hobby - it's by no means an investment. With the changing environment, I buy and collect what I want - to enjoy these watch. If I ever end up selling them for more, excellent - but I don't expect it.

It's a hobby and a passion - but, honestly, my kids don't share it

Quote:

Originally Posted by DLRIDES

Yes, this is a problem for us !

I know I’m going to get flamed, but so be it.

There is no greater fan of mechanical watches than I, but the reality is, there is a generational shift in the watch world happening before our eyes. I too began to insert the cranial section into the sand, then something become apparent.

In 10-20 years, a 15 year old will have no perception of what a mechanical watch is because their Parents wore a smart watch ! Many of these online discussions on this matter always resort to “ there will always be people interested in conventional wrist watches”. Well that argument has no merit when those “people” have not been exposed to such. Most (not all) here wear a watch because their parents, or their grandparents did so. But what if they hadn’t ? Would you be here now ? Now, if your parents and grandparents wore electronic devices on their wrist instead, would you be here ?

This is not to say that all the traditional watch industry is going to disappear, but the damage to such could be far worse than the “quartz movement”. The potential is present for 50% of watch manufacturers to fold, sell, merge, etc........

To save the industry, watch manufacturers should remove their head from the sand and develop some sort of hybrid mechanical watch for this new segment of buyers. A fully mechanically driven piece, where the rotor and mainspring also generate an electrical current, which can be stored internally. This would power all interfaces/functions of the piece. The dial would almost look like a conventional dial, yet be a sort of operator screen when activated via voice, possible bezel, or even crown. There has actually been a few renderings of such recently, but of course everyone laughed them out ! Remember when we all said electric cars would never happen ? Remember when we laughed at the thought of a self-driving car ? Buggy manufacturers said automobiles were a “follie” too. Etc ................................