Texas Race For Senate Is Headed For Runoff

By

Nathan Koppel

Updated May 30, 2012 5:42 a.m. ET

AUSTIN, Texas—Rafael "Ted" Cruz, a Houston lawyer and tea party favorite, is headed for a runoff against a better-known candidate in the Texas Republican Senate primary, the latest strong showing by an insurgent hopeful.

With 99% of the precincts reporting, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, the favorite in the Senate race, had about 45% of the vote, below the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Mr. Cruz, a 42-year-old former Texas solicitor general, followed with about 34% of the vote.

The men are now set to square off July 31 in the runoff with the winner considered a decided favorite in the general election.

Mr. Dewhurst, who is backed by Gov. Rick Perry, has long held an edge in polls thanks to his widespread name recognition in the state, where he has been lieutenant governor since 2003. He also has also benefited from a personal fortune, made in the energy business, that has helped him finance his campaign and blanket the airwaves with ads. His campaign has spent $11.5 million, according to a report from the Federal Election Commission, more than twice the amount spent by Mr. Cruz.

But Mr. Cruz's grass-roots campaign has gained momentum in recent months, aided by endorsements from such conservative stalwarts as Sarah Palin and heavy spending by the small-government group Club for Growth. Mr. Cruz follows in the footsteps of Senate challengers who have had strong showings in Indiana, Nebraska and Utah.

In another closely watched race, Texas state lawmaker Randy Weber led the Republican primary vote but will need a runoff to succeed Rep. Ron Paul, who retired from the Gulf Coast seat he has held since 1997. The winner of the Republican primary is considered a favorite in the general election.

Many of the primary races to fill four new congressional seats, created as a result of population growth in Texas, remained undecided late Tuesday. Democrats are expected to capture three of the four new seats, including one covering parts of Dallas and Fort Worth. Marc Veasey, a Fort Worth state lawmaker, was the leading candidate for that seat, with 37% of the vote.

Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, a former congressman, led in the race to take on incumbent GOP Rep. Quico Canseco, who represents a West Texas district that spans from San Antonio to El Paso. That congressional race is considered the Democrats' best chance to unseat a Republican.

But the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate will continue to garner the most attention in Texas.

Mr. Dewhurst is still considered the candidate to beat in the runoff, political experts said, because of his ample resources, establishment backing and the fact that he is the likeliest to inherit backers of Tom Leppert, the former Dallas mayor who was running third in the Republican primary, with more than 13% of the vote.

Mr. Cruz should lure the majority of defectors from the remaining Republican candidates for Senate, including backers of former football player Craig James, who garnered 4% of the vote, political experts said.

"The real trick for Dewhurst is to get Leppert voters to turn out in the runoff," said Mark Jones, chairman of the political-science department at Rice University in Houston. Runoff elections tend to draw less than half the number of voters as regular primaries.

That may be especially true this year because the primary vote was delayed several months by legal wrangling over redistricting in the state, which resulted in a dead-of-summer date for the runoff. That could aid Mr. Cruz, who is believed to command a more energized following, political experts said.

"Cruz's people are more likely to turn out in the runoff because we are more ideologically driven on issues like state sovereignty," said Julie Turner, who voted for Mr. Cruz and is the president of the Texas Patriots PAC, a tea party-affiliated group.

Still, all contestants in the July runoff will face challenges in getting voters to head to the polls. "I'll be on vacation," said Gregg Werkenthin, a retired state worker in Austin who said he generally sides with Democrats. He doubts he will vote in the runoff.

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