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Junior member

What has simulators got to do with your attempt to explain your statement that "big player's or banks already know the news outcomes"? There are multitudes of reason to position ahead of a risk event but that doesn't mean that they "know the news outcome".

Well I'm pretty sure you asked if I could go back in time. Simulators or backtesting is kinda like that. What's funny is you don't think the markets are manipulated to trap traders on the wrong side of a market before some news events. Easy to spot if you know what your looking for...

Experienced member

What has simulators got to do with your attempt to explain your statement that "big player's or banks already know the news outcomes"? There are multitudes of reason to position ahead of a risk event but that doesn't mean that they "know the news outcome".

I would think he/she means that the parties involved have made their call on their position in advance of the news. No one knows for sure the result of the data, but one can make a call what it will likely be, hence positions are taken in advance.

Have you noticed when the data is not in line with the expectation, but we then reverse the initial reaction to the news? This is because these players (not really banks) but big traders, didn't get to off load their position, hence we do the reversal.

When data is inline with expectation we jump in that direction off the get go and the same guys n gals off load no problem, then we can reverse after ( if the underlying scenario is weak).

But its not wise to think/assume that positions will always be taken ahead of data, so if one can't see accumulation then its best to step aside.

So if we work it back, we realise that news is simply an excuse/reason to satisfy the needs and wants of the major players.

So to the OP - rather than looking at what is priced in, try to see if price action can give you any clues as to what various players may have been doing or not been doing prior, as this is what will ultimately move the market, the rest is simply a form of distraction.

Experienced member

Well I'm pretty sure you asked if I could go back in time. Simulators or backtesting is kinda like that. What's funny is you don't think the markets are manipulated to trap traders on the wrong side of a market before some news events. Easy to spot if you know what your looking for...

Junior member

I have a fairly large library of screenshots of trades. Also videos. But I'm not really willing to share most of the old ones. Id like to not be identified as long as possible. It's only a matter of time though I'm sure. But coming into 2018 I'm sure I'll be posting a fair amount of examples of before the fact trade ideas and the after math...

Which is what new traders should be looking for imo someone who shows why they are taking a trade before and the results of the trade.

Junior member

I would think he/she means that the parties involved have made their call on their position in advance of the news. No one knows for sure the result of the data, but one can make a call what it will likely be, hence positions are taken in advance.

Have you noticed when the data is not in line with the expectation, but we then reverse the initial reaction to the news? This is because these players (not really banks) but big traders, didn't get to off load their position, hence we do the reversal.

When data is inline with expectation we jump in that direction off the get go and the same guys n gals off load no problem, then we can reverse after ( if the underlying scenario is weak).

But its not wise to think/assume that positions will always be taken ahead of data, so if one can't see accumulation then its best to step aside.

So if we work it back, we realise that news is simply an excuse/reason to satisfy the needs and wants of the major players.

So to the OP - rather than looking at what is priced in, try to see if price action can give you any clues as to what various players may have been doing or not been doing prior, as this is what will ultimately move the market, the rest is simply a form of distraction.

I agree to some degree.. But I take it a step further. There's plenty of situations the markets are moved in favor of a forecast by "retail or big players" just for the forecast to go wrong or correct but the big players just got a better price and are adding positions in the other direction of where they want it to go In actuality.

Experienced member

I agree to some degree.. But I take it a step further. There's plenty of situations the markets are moved in favor of a forecast by "retail or big players" just for the forecast to go wrong or correct but the big players just got a better price and are adding positions in the other direction of where they want it to go In actuality.

Junior member

Right if you can only put so much on a trade at one time but you know you can drop a market say 10 or 20 pips before a release and have multiple buy limits at a certain price and add as much as you can right at the release. You maxed out your buying capability and moved the Market much further in your favor while trapping everyone chasing 10-20pip move in the wrong direction which probably aligns with the forecasts. Which is funny to watch...

Established member

I guess I gave you too much credit in your ability to take a bilateral view on time machine rather than a unilateral view. Knowing a future outcome logically presuppose time travel into the future rather than the past unless again I gave you too much credit in simple logical deduction.

Whether markets are manipulated is not the subject matter. If you are trying to change subject because you can't honestly defend your original statement then say so because I can let it go. Prolonging it unnecessarily is just insulting.

I would think he/she means that the parties involved have made their call on their position in advance of the news. No one knows for sure the result of the data, but one can make a call what it will likely be, hence positions are taken in advance.

Have you noticed when the data is not in line with the expectation, but we then reverse the initial reaction to the news? This is because these players (not really banks) but big traders, didn't get to off load their position, hence we do the reversal.

When data is inline with expectation we jump in that direction off the get go and the same guys n gals off load no problem, then we can reverse after ( if the underlying scenario is weak).

But its not wise to think/assume that positions will always be taken ahead of data, so if one can't see accumulation then its best to step aside.

So if we work it back, we realise that news is simply an excuse/reason to satisfy the needs and wants of the major players.

So to the OP - rather than looking at what is priced in, try to see if price action can give you any clues as to what various players may have been doing or not been doing prior, as this is what will ultimately move the market, the rest is simply a form of distraction.

That is a reasonable view of the market process because anyone who trade risk events know that major market moves are driven by deviation simply because position players are caught wrong footed and has to unwind their positions and to re-position while momentum players pile into the new sentiment. "Time machines" though is not something institution players I have heard are engaged in and hence evidence would be a reasonable ask.