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Aim: The research aims at contributing to the growing number of studies on banking performance by investigating empirically the effect of changes in the macroeconomic conditions on bank profitability in Europe for the period 1980-2009. For this purpose, data for banking systems of eight European countries on an aggregate national level are included in the analysis: Germany, France, Austria, Norway, Netherland, United Kingdom (UK), Spain and Italy. In addition to this, two measures are used to represent the bank profitability: net interest income (NII) and return on assets (ROA).
Methods: Panel regression models at three levels are deployed in order to estimate empirically the effect of the macroeconomic indicators on bank performance in Europa: individual estimations on a country level, cross-country estimations on a group level for Northern and Southern Europe and finally overall cross-country estimation on a European level.
Results: The estimation results suggest that macroeconomic conditions are able to explain most of the variation of the banks’ net interest income in European countries, as well as part of the variation of banks’ ROA. Additionally, they clearly indicate that GDP growth rate is the most significant factor influencing bank performance in Europe on all three levels of the model. The effect of the inflation rate is also considered for strongly significant and positive while the effect of the other macroeconomic variables included in this research is different and cannot be generalized probably as a result of the heterogeneity among European countries. Surprisingly, the results did not indicate any significant difference between Norther and Southern Europe, regarding the effect of the macroeconomic conditions on bank performance.