In South Korea, he said the “nature of the oil we’re producing may not be well-matched to our current refining capacity.” Plus, White House aide John Podesta last week said the White House was taking an active look at export policy.

Greg Priddy of Eurasia Group nonetheless expects only a gradual shift in policy.

It’s not clear, for example, how much authority President Obama actually has to relax the rules under the Energy Policy Act of 1975.

“The Obama administration is not likely to take on a fight with members of their own party by pursuing a blanket waiver under an aggressively broad interpretation of their statutory authority, and the option of pursuing new legislation in the current atmosphere of Congressional polarization and lack of consensus also is an unattractive option,” says Priddy.

What’s more clear is that the White House can relax rules administered by the Bureau of Industry and Security. For example, light crude already is flowing to Eastern Canadian refiners from the U.S. Gulf Coast. It would be more complex to allow the export of lease condensates, which U.S. refiners struggle to refine. “While this makes sense due to the constraints on U.S. refiner ability to run these super-light type of barrels, to move forward the Administration would have to clarify the definition of crude oil in various statutes to exclude lease condensate,” Priddy says.

“These measures probably will cover increasing volumes of crude oil exports over time, but will not be sufficient to eliminate the impact on price differentials from the continuation of the broader export ban,” Priddy concludes. “That effectively allows the Obama administration to take a politically expedient middle path, in which they alleviate some of the pressure, while not completely taking away the benefits to domestic refiners, and delaying the question of a permanent resolution of the issue, probably into to the next administration.”