Comments on Links for 01-03-18TypePad2018-01-04T01:52:38ZMark Thomahttp://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/tag:typepad.com,2003:http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2018/01/links-for-01-03-18/comments/atom.xml/Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943d259970b2018-01-09T21:55:30Z2018-01-09T22:07:19ZFred C. DobbsTrump Plans to Attend the World Economic Forum in Davos NYT - MAGGIE HABERMAN and MICHAEL D. SHEAR - JAN....<p>Trump Plans to Attend the World Economic Forum in Davos<br />
NYT - MAGGIE HABERMAN and MICHAEL D. SHEAR - JAN. 9, 2018 <br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/politics/trump-davos-world-economic-forum.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/politics/trump-davos-world-economic-forum.html</a></p>
<p>WASHINGTON — President Trump is expected to attend the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, in the coming weeks, an administration official said on Tuesday.</p>
<p>In a statement, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, said the president was looking forward to attending the gathering of world leaders and business executives.</p>
<p>“The president welcomes opportunities to advance his America First agenda with world leaders,” Ms. Sanders said. “At this year’s World Economic Forum, the president looks forward to promoting his policies to strengthen American businesses, American industries and American workers.”</p>
<p>Mr. Trump’s planned appearance at an event that is synonymous with wealth and elite prestige comes as he enters the second year of a term he won on a message of economic populism.</p>
<p>Presidents have rarely attended the forum in Davos, in part out of a concern that it would send the wrong message to be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s richest individuals.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump won the 2016 election in part by attacking elites in the United States and promising to “drain the swamp” in Washington of lobbyists, corporate influence and members of the establishment — the very description of those who regularly attend the Davos forum.</p>
<p>The event in Switzerland is a global symbol of everything that Mr. Trump’s former chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, railed against during the presidential campaign and the first seven months in the administration.</p>
<p>But Mr. Trump has also spent a lifetime as a real estate mogul and television personality seeking to be accepted by the financial and media elite in New York and around the world. His decision to travel to Davos as president may represent his desire to prove that he has achieved that goal.</p>
<p>Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers were befuddled by his planned trip, coming a year after his team decided not to send a representative to the 2017 gathering.</p>
<p>A year into his term, Mr. Trump’s appearance at the forum is certain to highlight the clash between his America First agenda and the more globalist approach of some of America’s closest allies around the world. ...<br />
</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942f7ca970b2018-01-06T23:13:10Z2018-01-06T23:17:06ZanneCorrecting: Rent of [primary residence] rather than shelter is the relevant component of the Consumer Price Price, but why I...<p>Correcting:</p>
<p>Rent of [primary residence] rather than shelter is the relevant component of the Consumer Price Price, but why I still do not understand.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942ecea970b2018-01-06T19:09:02Z2018-01-06T19:52:57ZRC AKA Darryl, RonBTW, I never learned to love my two awful bosses, but they did not last long enough to register unbridled...<p>BTW, I never learned to love my two awful bosses, but they did not last long enough to register unbridled contempt either, just a stable and natural contemptuousness for them. My picky boss had the gift of some modicum of functional ability and intelligence, so my contempt for her remained mostly muted for 23 years. None of that affected my love of my job though because I worked mostly under my own supervision as a technician with abilities well above their ability to supervise or desire to limit beyond what they feared might be (office hierarchy) &quot;political&quot; fallout. To the extent that my bosses did not otherwise jeopardize their own careers in other ways, then having me work for them was a career maker not a career breaker opportunity for them. During agency reorganizations prior to our outsource my employment was spoils of victory for the winning factions. When the outsource came there was a while that it appeared there would be another battle over who would have me, but the CEO bought off the former CFO with a retirement package and all of my associates and I were carted off to the outsourcer. The replacement CFO wanted to build his own staff from whole cloth.</p>
<p>My fortunes in my personal and professional life have far surpassed my abilities, and vastly surpassed my educational attainment. So, I have a great deal of faith in both blind luck and Kharma. My separation from the mainstream political thinking dates back to when I was still in high school. My detachment from the materialistic trappings of success lasted until I became engaged and bought my first home at age 55.</p>
<p>Contempt in my life has rarely been a very personal thing. It has been a detached feeling more of sadness than angst, although angst has emanated from it at times. So, maybe I am not the best person to explain &quot;Familiarity breeds contempt,&quot; yet I am certain that its truth in several contexts is borne out by history. </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942eb96970b2018-01-06T18:39:31Z2018-01-06T19:52:57ZRC AKA Darryl, RonIt is not always true, but depends upon the nature of the relationship with which one has gained familiarity. I...<p>It is not always true, but depends upon the nature of the relationship with which one has gained familiarity. </p>
<p>I had the same job position from September 1984 through June 2015 and loved it. The benefits were wonderful and my job was perfect for me. I had to suffer two awful bosses out of five over the period and one insufferably picky boss that was at least marginally competent herself for 23 of that total 31 year at the same job. It was not a boring job although after about five years of it then it was also no longer challenging in any threatening way, but rather challenging only in fun and joyful ways. </p>
<p>So, familiarity build contempts when the nature of the relationship is unfulfilling at best and detrimental at worst. We don&#39;t learn to hate the things that we love, but we do learn to really hate the things that we do not like.] </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e619f2970d2018-01-06T18:26:32Z2018-01-06T19:52:57ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron[You totally misunderstand the social dynamic applicable here. Familiarity breeds contempt.] Google on its origin - "Long experience of someone...<p>[You totally misunderstand the social dynamic applicable here. Familiarity breeds contempt.]</p>
<p>Google on its origin - </p>
<p>&quot;Long experience of someone or something can make one so aware of the faults as to be scornful. For example, Ten years at the same job and now he hates it—familiarity breeds contempt. The idea is much older, but the first recorded use of this expression was in Chaucer&#39;s Tale of Melibee (c. 1386).&quot;</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd34e2970c2018-01-06T16:44:22Z2018-01-06T18:17:30ZEMichaelI sometimes wonder how people go on and on about subjects they are totally unfamiliar with. Why?<p>I sometimes wonder how people go on and on about subjects they are totally unfamiliar with. </p>
<p>Why?</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942e111970b2018-01-06T15:10:57Z2018-01-06T18:17:30ZEMichaelSounds as difficult as building and maintaining a government.<p>Sounds as difficult as building and maintaining a government.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e60cde970d2018-01-06T13:58:21Z2018-01-06T18:17:30ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...Elites must be brushed aside in the final act... ...Trust the people only the people and all the people..." [On...<p>&quot;...Elites must be brushed aside in the final act...<br />
...Trust the people only the people and all the people...&quot;</p>
<p>[On these things we are of one mind, water brothers, you and I.] <br />
</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5fa87970d2018-01-06T03:01:53Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://.No one who can afford offshore leases wants to drill offshore because there is too much supply. However, booking leases...<p>No one who can afford offshore leases wants to drill offshore because there is too much supply.</p>
<p>However, booking leases as assets justifies higher market caps.</p>
<p>The problem is blocking drilling on private land producing 5 million barrels a day too much oil.</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942c9e7970b2018-01-06T02:49:56Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://.No shortage of land in Detroit, Cleveland, Wichita, ... Rents are pretty low. The problem is Red State politics makes...<p>No shortage of land in Detroit, Cleveland, Wichita, ...</p>
<p>Rents are pretty low.</p>
<p>The problem is Red State politics makes those States undesirable for the innovators and conservative rich so asset prices fall, destroying wealth.</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd185e970c2018-01-06T02:38:50Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://.When everyone wants free lunches, Democrats have a hard time selling tanstaafl.<p>When everyone wants free lunches, Democrats have a hard time selling tanstaafl.</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5f93f970d2018-01-06T02:32:08Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://.When you sell your Treasuries, how many jobs do you create?<p>When you sell your Treasuries, how many jobs do you create?</p>ilsm commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd1748970c2018-01-06T02:29:13Z2018-01-06T05:41:13ZilsmI learn (actually re-remember old mistakes) a lesson every year...... always run the snow blower in a rain suit... and...<p>I learn (actually re-remember old mistakes) a lesson every year......</p>
<p>always run the snow blower in a rain suit... and cover the beard it gets crusted with ice.</p>
<p>We had up to my knees in back yard hard to tell with blowing.</p>
<p>all cleaned out cannot image going to work yesterday!</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd16b7970c2018-01-06T02:20:27Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://." We need to address our concerns with the fiscal authority of our elected representatives of the US Federal Government...<p>&quot; We need to address our concerns with the fiscal authority of our elected representatives of the US Federal Government because they are the only government authorities that ostensibly get their marching orders from citizens, a.k.a., the voting public.&quot;</p>
<p>The voting public wants low wages so they pay low prices for what they consume.</p>
<p>And that want assets to be scarce so they get rich as asset prices inflate.</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd1619970c2018-01-06T02:14:27Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://.DEC engineers identified this problem in the 90s and fixed it in Alpha back then. The same engineers were involved...<p>DEC engineers identified this problem in the 90s and fixed it in Alpha back then. The same engineers were involved in StrongArm. Both were sold to Intel that ended all DEC designs.</p>
<p>In the 80s, DEC had the SecureVAX program that validated to MilStd for secure computer systems. Ironically, the military didn&#39;t want to buy systems that met their standards.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942c646970b2018-01-06T01:37:02Z2018-01-06T05:41:13ZFred C. Dobbs(Is this anything?) Breaking News - President Trump asked Congress for $18 billion for a border wall. In exchange, he...<p>(Is this anything?)</p>
<p>Breaking News - President Trump asked Congress <br />
for $18 billion for a border wall. In exchange, <br />
he offered to protect young undocumented immigrants.</p>
<p>White House Immigration Demands Imperil <br />
Bipartisan Talks <a href="https://nyti.ms/2EbpL98" rel="nofollow">https://nyti.ms/2EbpL98</a><br />
NYT - SHERYL GAY STOLBERG and MICHAEL TACKETT - JAN. 5</p>
<p>WASHINGTON — The White House on Friday presented Congress with an expansive list of hard-line immigration measures, including an $18 billion request to build a wall at the Mexican border, that President Trump is demanding in exchange for protecting young undocumented immigrants.</p>
<p>The request, which totals $33 billion over a period of 10 years for border security measures including the wall, could jeopardize bipartisan talks aimed at getting an immigration deal. Among the items on Mr. Trump’s immigration wish-list: money to hire 10,000 additional immigration officers, tougher laws for those seeking asylum, and denial of federal grants to so-called “sanctuary cities.”</p>
<p>The list, delivered to Senator Richard J. Durbin, the Illinois Democrat who has been leading the talks related to young immigrants without documentation, is identical to one Democrats declared a non-starter when the White House issued it in October.</p>
<p>“President Trump has said he may need a good government shutdown to get his wall,” a furious Mr. Durbin said in an emailed statement Friday afternoon. “With this demand, he seems to be heading in that direction.’’</p>
<p>The senator went on: “It’s outrageous that the White House would undercut months of bipartisan efforts by again trying to put its entire wish-list of hard-line anti-immigrant bills — plus an additional $18 billion in wall funding — on the backs of these young people.”</p>
<p>An estimated 780,000 young people brought to this country illegally were shielded from deportation under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Program, a program instituted by former President Barack Obama in 2012. But in September, Mr. Trump rescinded the program, known by its acronym, DACA, and gave Congress six months to come up with a replacement. ...<br />
</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5f5e5970d2018-01-06T01:12:23Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://."or a second Iranian revolution disrupts oil supplies" If you look at PKs GDP graph, you see GDP growth fall...<p>&quot;or a second Iranian revolution disrupts oil supplies&quot;</p>
<p>If you look at PKs GDP graph, you see GDP growth fall as oil prices fall as various oil sanctions end, including the Iranian sanctions.</p>
<p>Only higher prices of consumption goods and services promote higher growth by promoting investment.</p>
<p>Monopolist and rentiers have walled off investment in capital assets to prevent too much capital destroying wealth, aka deflating asset prices.</p>
<p>In the US, only a few firm&#39;s are paying workers every penny of cash they can get to build capital. Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX, various shipping companies.</p>
<p>To quote Trump. &quot;Sad&quot;</p>mulp commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd12b6970c2018-01-06T00:50:42Z2018-01-06T05:41:13Zmulphttp://.Innovation happens only by paying workers. Investment happens only by paying workers. Growth comes only from paying workers. The number...<p>Innovation happens only by paying workers.<br />
Investment happens only by paying workers.<br />
Growth comes only from paying workers.</p>
<p>The number one China priority is paying more workers more until no Chinese remain in poverty.</p>
<p>The US conservatives want to eliminate paying all US workers. Ideally they are all working without pay without being in chains and whipped.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5f346970d2018-01-06T00:05:38Z2018-01-06T00:14:46ZanneDavid Hume is the great progenitor of modern English language based inner nagging feelings Just of the sort plaguing Romer...<p>David Hume <br />
is the great progenitor of modern English language based inner nagging feelings <br />
Just of the sort plaguing Romer <br />
Prodding him On <br />
to a deeper understanding</p>
<p>[ Superb. ]</p>Cudgel Carrot commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd10a5970c2018-01-06T00:01:54Z2018-01-06T00:14:46ZCudgel CarrotSo then, Holmes, the 45th president cut taxes to propagate the atmosphere of inflationary expectations just in time to slow...<p><br />
So then, Holmes, the 45th president cut taxes to propagate the atmosphere of inflationary expectations just in time to slow the economy so that consumer inventories would not build enough to prevent future aggregate demand that would be needed to restart the economy during years of lean M2V.</p>
<p>Elementary, My dear Watson. Perhaps we should rename the Army-45, in honour of our beloved President we should rename the semiautomatic weapon</p>
<p>The 45th<br />
!</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942c20a970b2018-01-05T23:55:33Z2018-01-06T00:01:47ZanneThough I have read "Faust" as a whole and in excerpts, I have never been sure of what to make...<p>Though I have read &quot;Faust&quot; as a whole and in excerpts, I have never been sure of what to make of the character of Faust and I will read the entire play (2 parts) again. The play is worth reading much beyond the use by Paul Krugman. Who is Faust? I hope to decide.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942c0f6970b2018-01-05T23:39:50Z2018-01-06T00:01:47ZanneHappily, I no longer take baths, and since I am awful at irony I will explain that was meant as...<p>Happily, I no longer take baths, and since I am awful at irony I will explain that was meant as an ironic and sad comment on the wish to drill anywhere and everywhere by Republicans. My bathtub would be a perfect place to drill in.</p>Governmental Bitcoin Bailout commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942c0ae970b2018-01-05T23:32:46Z2018-01-06T00:01:47ZGovernmental Bitcoin BailoutYou made an investment in one of tomorrow's role models. The Babylonian palatial economy Informal trading among farmers morphed into...<p>You made an investment in one of tomorrow&#39;s role models.</p>
<p><br />
The Babylonian palatial economy</p>
<p>Informal trading among farmers morphed into a free economy which later evolved into a palatial economy controlled by the king from the palace. During times of Plenty and Times of fat the king would attempt to slow the economy to prevent the consumer&#39;s inventory to build enough to prevent pent-up demand later, demand that could eventually jump-start the economy whenever the king desired.</p>
<p>In short he would tighten the reins in Times of fat but loosen the reins when M2V dropped. The king noticed that when the automobile manufacturer expected deflation, the factory owner would dump his inventory on to the middlemen or car dealers as they later called. Similarly the car dealer when he feared deflation would dump his inventory on to the end user by dropping his prices to a reasonable level. When the dealer expected inflation he would raise prices to prevent selling Off his Inventory at the lower price. Manufacturers would do essentially the same, dump inventory for deflation but hold back inventory when they expected inflation. </p>
<p>The king would loosen credit when times were good so that consumers would be able to borrow enough money to buy a new car. This ploy always worked during good times when credit was good with most consumers, but did not work during a depression or a recession, did not work then because consumers did not have good credit ratings then.</p>
<p>During times of recession the king would tighten credit so that the dealer and the manufacturer would both expect deflation thus dump their inventory, revive the economy.</p>
<p>After many centuries King&#39;s forgot how to run the economy and the economy degenerated into chaos. Eventually Adam Smith recommended a free economy uncontrolled by the palace. This morphed into many other less functional types of economy.</p>
<p>We must now revert to the original Babylonian system</p>
<p>Good <br />
luck<br />
!<br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd0cd4970c2018-01-05T22:57:54Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZFred C. DobbsI would reluctantly trade my copy of 'Al Franken: Giant of the Senate' for one of these.<p>I would reluctantly trade my<br />
copy of &#39;Al Franken: Giant of<br />
the Senate&#39; for one of these.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5eb1f970d2018-01-05T22:01:22Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, RonROTFLMAO. Also, if that is true then I have to love it because it is what I had been telling...<p>ROTFLMAO.</p>
<p>Also, if that is true then I have to love it because it is what I had been telling people before the election.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd095d970c2018-01-05T21:56:44Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, RonKilling the term premium would indeed be a new normal. In some respects I would even consider it a good...<p>Killing the term premium would indeed be a new normal. In some respects I would even consider it a good thing, but not so long as credit is primarily in the hands of private lenders. This might be a good thing if one were to believe that we were indeed upon the euthanasia of the rentier, but I do not imagine them to just go in peace. With the term premium dead then where does the search for yield lead? All that is left is risk and scams. This of course explains the present DJIA. Your solution still holds true in these respects, but I would have framed the diagnosis of the disease much differently. </p>kurt commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5eaed970d2018-01-05T21:55:04Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZkurtSo, no then?<p>So, no then?</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd08ae970c2018-01-05T21:44:30Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, RonI admit that ARMs are an anomaly of normal home lending and as such are also a perversion of the...<p>I admit that ARMs are an anomaly of normal home lending and as such are also a perversion of the desire for home ownership. The teaser is a misleading offer based on the lender&#39;s expectations of a increase in the benchmark rate at the time of future interest rate reset(s). As such these devices naturally lose their potency for attracting new business as the FFR underlying most of the benchmark rates increases. Even or especially during times of low FFR then ARMs should have been illegal. They facilitate speculative investment in residential property at best and at worst they terribly injure the future credit ratings and lives of foolish buyers in search of homes that they could realistically never afford but thought otherwise when blinded in one eye by the American Dream and in the other eye by the shenanigans of unscrupulous loan originators. I mind the latter far more than seeing residential property speculators go bankrupt, but neither benefits society nor the economy in general. That said though you have correctly diagnosed a disease with that, but you have applied the wrong remedy. If we will not adequately regulate finance then the FFR is not the vehicle to fix those problems. What we will not regulate in finance will vex us until we end up with a groundswell movement to nationalize it, or at least that would be my first choice. Some people prefer guillotines as a deterrent to usurious &quot;financial innovation&quot; and I am not prepared to argue which is better. OTOH, anyone foolish enough to have not refinanced their ARM under HARP by now, if eligible, or if not HARP eligible then by conventional fixed rate conforming loan should not be a subject of our sympathy. These last eight years should have made that perfectly clear to even the most doltish of mortgage payers.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5ea00970d2018-01-05T21:40:44Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZChristopher H.Fed governor Tarullo in Sept. 2012: "As people write the history of the Great Recession following the financial crisis, the...<p>Fed governor Tarullo in Sept. 2012: &quot;As people write the history of the Great Recession following the financial crisis, the failure to move more aggressively on housing is going to be seen as the biggest of the policy mistakes...&quot;</p>
<p>and some of our deep thinkers here believe Obama did nothing wrong.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942ba9a970b2018-01-05T21:39:34Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZChristopher H.Wolff reports that Trump didn't even want to win. PK doesn't deal with the issue of how and why the...<p>Wolff reports that Trump didn&#39;t even want to win.</p>
<p>PK doesn&#39;t deal with the issue of how and why the Dems could lose to *that.*</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942ba72970b2018-01-05T21:36:03Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZChristopher H.Could be true. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-why-michael-wolffs-book-is-good-news-w515045 "He was like an instinctive, pampered, and hugely successful actor. Everybody was either a lackey who...<p>Could be true.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-why-michael-wolffs-book-is-good-news-w515045" rel="nofollow">https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-why-michael-wolffs-book-is-good-news-w515045</a></p>
<p>&quot;He was like an instinctive, pampered, and hugely successful actor. Everybody was either a lackey who did his bidding or a high-ranking film functionary trying to coax out his performance — without making him angry or petulant.&quot; </p>
<p>Wolff writes Team Trump was really hoping to &quot;almost win&quot; the presidency as part of a PR-driven business move, only to be horrified by the reality of securing a hugely demanding government job: </p>
<p>&quot;Once he lost, Trump would be both insanely famous and a martyr to Crooked Hillary... Melania Trump, who had been assured by her husband that he wouldn&#39;t become president, could return to inconspicuously lunching. Losing would work out for everybody. Losing was winning.</p>
<p>&quot;On Election Night, when the unexpected trend — Trump might actually win — seemed confirmed, Don Jr. told a friend that his father, or DJT, as he calls him, looked as if he had seen a ghost. Melania was in tears — and not of joy.&quot;</p>
<p>...<br />
</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942ba4a970b2018-01-05T21:31:42Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlDU January 4, 2018 All nonfarm employees, 2007-2017 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hi5R August 4, 2014 Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area and...<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlDU" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlDU</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>All nonfarm employees, 2007-2017</p>
<p><br />
<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hi5R" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hi5R</a></p>
<p>August 4, 2014</p>
<p>Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area and United States, 2007-2017</p>
<p>(Indexed to 2007)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd07b5970c2018-01-05T21:26:54Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttp://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/ Dividend Yield, 1881-2018 (Standard and Poors Composite Stock Index) January 5, 2018 - Div Yield ( 1.76) Annual Mean...<p><a href="http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/" rel="nofollow">http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/</a></p>
<p>Dividend Yield, 1881-2018</p>
<p>(Standard and Poors Composite Stock Index)</p>
<p>January 5, 2018 - Div Yield ( 1.76)</p>
<p>Annual Mean ( 4.37)<br />
Annual Median ( 4.31)</p>
<p>-- Robert Shiller</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd07ac970c2018-01-05T21:26:29Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttp://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ Ten Year Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, 1881-2018 (Standard and Poors Composite Stock Index) January 5, 2018 - PE...<p><a href="http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/" rel="nofollow">http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/</a></p>
<p>Ten Year Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, 1881-2018</p>
<p>(Standard and Poors Composite Stock Index)</p>
<p>January 5, 2018 - PE Ratio ( 33.27)</p>
<p>Annual Mean ( 16.81)<br />
Annual Median ( 16.15)</p>
<p>-- Robert Shiller</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b9f2970b2018-01-05T21:26:00Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZanneJanuary 5, 2018 Valuation The Shiller 10-year price-earnings ratio * is currently 33.27 so the inverse or the earnings rate...<p>January 5, 2018</p>
<p>Valuation</p>
<p>The Shiller 10-year price-earnings ratio * is currently 33.27 so the inverse or the earnings rate is 3.01%. The dividend yield is 1.76%. So an expected yearly return over the coming 10 years would be 3.01 + 1.76 or 4.77% provided the price-earnings ratio stays the same and before investment costs.</p>
<p>Against the 4.77% yearly expected return on stock over the coming 10 years, the current 10-year Treasury bond yield is 2.47%.</p>
<p>The risk premium for stocks is 4.77 - 2.47 or 2.30%.</p>
<p>* <a href="http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm</a></p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd05d2970c2018-01-05T21:01:51Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttp://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm January 15, 2018 Ten Year Mean Price Earnings Ratio, 1960-2017 (Standard and Poors Composite Stock Index) 1960 ( 18.3)...<p><a href="http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm</a></p>
<p>January 15, 2018</p>
<p>Ten Year Mean Price Earnings Ratio, 1960-2017</p>
<p>(Standard and Poors Composite Stock Index)</p>
<p>1960 ( 18.3)<br />
1961 ( 18.5) Kennedy<br />
1962 ( 21.0)<br />
1963 ( 19.0) Johnson<br />
1964 ( 21.3)</p>
<p>1965 ( 22.9)<br />
1966 ( 23.8)<br />
1967 ( 20.1)<br />
1968 ( 21.2)<br />
1969 ( 20.8) Nixon</p>
<p>1970 ( 16.9)<br />
1971 ( 16.4)<br />
1972 ( 17.1)<br />
1973 ( 18.6)<br />
1974 ( 13.4) Ford</p>
<p>1975 ( 8.9)<br />
1976 ( 11.3)<br />
1977 ( 11.5) Carter<br />
1978 ( 9.2)<br />
1979 ( 9.2)</p>
<p>1980 ( 8.8)<br />
1981 ( 8.5) Reagan<br />
1982 ( 7.4)<br />
1983 ( 9.6)<br />
1984 ( 9.4)</p>
<p>1985 ( 10.7)<br />
1986 ( 13.4)<br />
1987 ( 16.0)<br />
1988 ( 14.4)<br />
1989 ( 16.6) Bush</p>
<p>1990 ( 16.5)<br />
1991 ( 17.9)<br />
1992 ( 19.5)<br />
1993 ( 20.8) Clinton<br />
1994 ( 20.5)</p>
<p>1995 ( 22.7)<br />
1996 ( 25.9)<br />
1997 ( 31.0)<br />
1998 ( 36.0)<br />
1999 ( 42.1) (High)</p>
<p>2000 ( 41.7)<br />
2001 ( 32.1) Bush<br />
2002 ( 25.9)<br />
2003 ( 24.1)<br />
2004 ( 26.4)</p>
<p>2005 ( 26.0)<br />
2006 ( 26.0)<br />
2007 ( 26.8)<br />
2008 ( 20.8)<br />
2009 ( 16.9) Obama</p>
<p>2010 ( 20.7)<br />
2011 ( 21.8)<br />
2012 ( 21.4)<br />
2013 ( 23.2)<br />
2014 ( 25.5)</p>
<p>2015 ( 26.2)<br />
2016 ( 26.1)<br />
2017 ( 29.9)</p>
<p>December</p>
<p>2017 ( 32.5)</p>
<p>-- Robert Shiller</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e748970d2018-01-05T21:01:19Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-class/month-end-returns January 5, 2018 The 3 month Treasury interest rate is at 1.40%, the 2 year Treasury rate is 1.96%,...<p><a href="https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-class/month-end-returns" rel="nofollow">https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-class/month-end-returns</a></p>
<p>January 5, 2018</p>
<p>The 3 month Treasury interest rate is at 1.40%, the 2 year Treasury rate is 1.96%, the 5 year rate is 2.28%, while the 10 year is 2.47%.</p>
<p>The Vanguard Aa rated short-term investment grade bond fund, with a maturity of 3.0 years and a duration of 2.6 years, has a yield of 2.31%. The Vanguard Aa rated intermediate-term investment grade bond fund, with a maturity of 5.9 years and a duration of 5.5 years, is yielding 2.77%. The Vanguard Aa rated long-term investment grade bond fund, with a maturity of 23.7 years and a duration of 13.9 years, is yielding 3.54%. *</p>
<p>The Vanguard Ba rated high-yield corporate bond fund, with a maturity of 5.1 years and a duration of 4.2 years, is yielding 4.91%.</p>
<p>The Vanguard unrated convertible corporate bond fund, with an adjustable maturity and a duration of 3.7 years, is yielding 1.37%.</p>
<p>The Vanguard A rated high-yield tax-exempt bond fund, with a maturity of 17.6 years and a duration of 7.1 years, is yielding 2.81%.</p>
<p>The Vanguard Aa rated intermediate-term tax-exempt bond fund, with a maturity of 8.7 years and a duration of 5.3 years, is yielding 1.99%.</p>
<p>The Vanguard Government National Mortgage Association bond fund, with a maturity of 6.9 years and a duration of 4.2 years, is yielding 2.65%.</p>
<p>The Vanguard inflation-protected Treasury bond fund, with a maturity of 8.7 years and a duration of 8.0 years, is yielding 0.26%.</p>
<p>* Vanguard yields are after cost. Federal Funds rates are no more than 1.50%.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd0572970c2018-01-05T20:55:12Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/g/goethe/faust/act3.html 1772-1832 Faust By Johann Wolfgang von Goethe The Study Faust (Entering, with the poodle.) But ah! I feel, though...<p><a href="https://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/g/goethe/faust/act3.html" rel="nofollow">https://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/g/goethe/faust/act3.html</a></p>
<p>1772-1832</p>
<p>Faust<br />
By Johann Wolfgang von Goethe</p>
<p>The Study</p>
<p>Faust</p>
<p>(Entering, with the poodle.)</p>
<p>But ah! I feel, though will thereto be stronger,<br />
Contentment flows from out my breast no longer.<br />
Why must the stream so soon run dry and fail us,<br />
And burning thirst again assail us?<br />
Therein I’ve borne so much probation!<br />
And yet, this want may be supplied us;<br />
We call the Supernatural to guide us;<br />
We pine and thirst for Revelation,<br />
Which nowhere worthier is, more nobly sent,<br />
Than here, in our New Testament.<br />
I feel impelled, its meaning to determine —<br />
With honest purpose, once for all,<br />
The hallowed Original<br />
To change to my beloved German.</p>
<p>(He opens a volume, and commences.)</p>
<p>’Tis written: “In the Beginning was the Word.”<br />
Here am I balked: who, now can help afford?<br />
The Word? — impossible so high to rate it;<br />
And otherwise must I translate it.<br />
If by the Spirit I am truly taught.<br />
Then thus: “In the Beginning was the Thought“<br />
This first line let me weigh completely,<br />
Lest my impatient pen proceed too fleetly.<br />
Is it the Thought which works, creates, indeed?<br />
“In the Beginning was the Power,” I read.<br />
Yet, as I write, a warning is suggested,<br />
That I the sense may not have fairly tested.<br />
The Spirit aids me: now I see the light!<br />
“In the Beginning was the Act,” I write....</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd04bd970c2018-01-05T20:47:31Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/opinion/can-the-economy-keep-calm-and-carry-on.html January 1, 2018 Can the Economy Keep Calm and Carry On? By Paul Krugman On election night 2016, I...<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/opinion/can-the-economy-keep-calm-and-carry-on.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/opinion/can-the-economy-keep-calm-and-carry-on.html</a></p>
<p>January 1, 2018</p>
<p>Can the Economy Keep Calm and Carry On?<br />
By Paul Krugman</p>
<p>On election night 2016, I gave in temporarily to a temptation I warn others about: * I let my political feelings distort my economic judgment. A very bad man had just won the electoral college; and my first thought was that this would translate quickly into a bad economy. I quickly retracted the claim, and issued a mea culpa. ** (Being an old-fashioned guy, I try to admit and learn from my mistakes.)</p>
<p>What I should have clung to, despite my dismay, was the well-known proposition that in normal times the president has very little influence on macroeconomic developments – far less influence than the chair of the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>This only stops being true when the economy is so depressed that monetary policy loses traction, as was the case in 2009-10; at that point it mattered a lot that Obama was willing to engage in fiscal stimulus, and it also mattered a lot, unfortunately, that Republican opposition plus Obama’s own caution meant that the stimulus was much smaller than it should have been. By 2016, however, the aftershocks of the financial crisis had faded away to the point that the usual rules once again applied.</p>
<p>Indeed, if we could find an economist who didn’t know that there was an election in 2016, and showed her the economic data for the past couple of years, she would have no clue that something drastic happened:</p>
<p>[Graph]</p>
<p>For that matter, economic developments in the U.S. during Trump’s first year were remarkably similar to developments in other advanced countries. Europe, in particular, has at least for now emerged from the shadow of the euro crisis, and is steadily growing – if you take its lower population growth into account, it’s doing a bit better than the US:</p>
<p>[Graph]</p>
<p>So we’re living in an era of political turmoil and economic calm. Can it last?</p>
<p>My answer is that it probably can’t, because the return to normalcy is fragile. Sooner or later, something will go wrong, and we’re very poorly placed to respond when it does. But I can’t tell you what that something will be, or when it will happen.</p>
<p>The key point is that while the major advanced economies are currently doing more or less OK, they’re doing so thanks to very low interest rates by historical standards. That’s not a critique of central bankers. All indications are that for whatever reason – probably low population growth and weak productivity performance — our economies need those low, low rates to achieve anything like full employment. And this in turn means that it would be a terrible, recession-creating mistake to “normalize” rates by raising them to historical levels.</p>
<p>But given that rates are already so low when things are pretty good, it will be hard for central bankers to mount an effective response if and when something not so good happens. What if something goes wrong in China, or a second Iranian revolution disrupts oil supplies, or it turns out that tech stocks really are in a 1999ish bubble? Or what if Bitcoin actually starts to have some systemic importance before everyone realizes it’s nonsense?</p>
<p>I’m not predicting any of these things, and when the next big shock comes it will probably come from some direction I haven’t thought of. But when it does come, we’ll need an effective, coherent response from officials beyond the world of central banking.</p>
<p>So imagine such an event happening soon. How confident would you feel in the team of Donald Trump and Steve Mnuchin? How much leadership could a weakened Angela Merkel exert in a fragmented Europe?</p>
<p>You might have thought that such concerns would weigh on markets even now. But for whatever reason, investors are currently in what-me-worry mode. And let’s hope that they’re right – that by the time stuff happens, we’ll actually have non-delusional people in charge.</p>
<p>* <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout</a></p>
<p>** <a href="https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/the-long-haul/" rel="nofollow">https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/the-long-haul/</a></p>Gibbon1 commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd04bb970c2018-01-05T20:47:27Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZGibbon1This is not a bad discussion, top comment. https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/7nyaei/todays_cpu_vulnerability_what_you_need_to_know/ Basically you can create a table of 256 entries in memory....<p>This is not a bad discussion, top comment.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/7nyaei/todays_cpu_vulnerability_what_you_need_to_know/" rel="nofollow">https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/7nyaei/todays_cpu_vulnerability_what_you_need_to_know/</a></p>
<p>Basically you can create a table of 256 entries in memory. Then you try and read a value out of that that table using an index. The index being a byte in memory that you don&#39;t have permissions to (OS memory, another process, etc). What happens is the access generates a fault, but only after the index byte is read and the appropriate caches page is loaded.</p>
<p>The key thing is then is you time how long it takes to read each of the 256 pages, you&#39;ll find that one and only one of them reads fast. Because it&#39;s be cached by your previously executed instruction. The others read slowly because the CPU needs to load the information from main memory (very slow). You can then figure out the index. Which is same as the byte in Kernel memory.</p>
<p>Timing attacks have been found before, but they&#39;re often weak. You need to average thousands tens of thousands of timing samples to get a signal. This, boom you&#39;re done. I think you can read any location in memory at a rate of about 100,000 bytes a second.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd04ac970c2018-01-05T20:46:08Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, RonWith a high temperature of 25F today then there was not much melting of snow in my yard. To put...<p>With a high temperature of 25F today then there was not much melting of snow in my yard. To put things in perspective though we only got 4 inches of snow while Enfield CT got 10 inches of snow and had a high temperature of 12F today. Enfield is expecting more snow and a wintry mix by next weekend whereas we are expecting rain Monday and no snow in the week ahead. My wife had hoped to go to Enfield CT to visit her best friend recently completing chemotherapy next weekend but will likely postpone given the weather.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b681970b2018-01-05T20:45:30Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/opinion/faust-on-the-potomac.html January 5, 2018 Faust on the Potomac By Paul Krugman I haven’t yet read Michael Wolff’s book – do...<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/opinion/faust-on-the-potomac.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/opinion/faust-on-the-potomac.html</a></p>
<p>January 5, 2018</p>
<p>Faust on the Potomac<br />
By Paul Krugman </p>
<p>I haven’t yet read Michael Wolff’s book – do I really have to? — but the basic outlines of his story have long been familiar and uncontroversial to anyone with open eyes. Trump is morally and intellectually incapable of being president. He has also exploited his office for personal gain, obstructed justice, and colluded with a hostile foreign power. Everyone who doesn’t get their news from Fox has basically known this for a while, although Wolff helps focus our minds on the subject.</p>
<p>It seems to me that that the real news now is the way Republicans in Congress are dealing with this national nightmare: rather than distancing themselves from Trump, they’re doubling down on their support and, in particular, on their efforts to cover for his defects and crimes. Remember when Paul Ryan was the Serious, Honest Conservative? (He never really was, but that was his public image.) Now he’s backing Devin Nunes in his efforts to help the Trump coverup.</p>
<p>As Brian Beutler says, Republicans have become the Grand Obstruction Party. Why?</p>
<p>The answer, I think, is that the cynical bargain that has been the basis of Republican strategy since Reagan has now turned into a moral trap. And as far as we can tell, no elected Republican – not one – has the strength of character to even attempt an escape.</p>
<p>The cynical bargain I’m talking about, of course, was the decision to exploit racism to advance a right-wing economic agenda. Talk about welfare queens driving Cadillacs, then slash income taxes. Do Willie Horton, then undermine antitrust. Tout your law and order credentials, then block health care.</p>
<p>For more than a generation, the Republican establishment was able to keep this bait-and-switch under control: racism was deployed to win elections, then was muted afterwards, partly to preserve plausible deniability, partly to focus on the real priority of enriching the one percent. But with Trump they lost control: the base wanted someone who was blatantly racist and wouldn’t pretend to be anything else. And that’s what they got, with corruption, incompetence, and treason on the side.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, aside from a handful of Never Trumpers, just about everyone in the Republican establishment decided that they could work with that. They knew what Trump was, but were willing to overlook it as long as they could push their usual agenda. What about the populism? They guessed, correctly, that this wouldn’t be a problem: Trump didn’t even hesitate about abandoning all his campaign promises and going all in for cutting taxes on the rich while slashing benefits for the poor.</p>
<p>Early on, some speculated that this would be a temporary alliance – that establishment Republicans would use Trump to get what they wanted, then turn on him. But it’s now clear that won’t happen. Trump has exceeded everyone’s worst expectations, yet Republicans, far from cutting him loose, are tying themselves even more closely to his fate. Why?</p>
<p>The answer, I’d argue, is that they’re stuck. They knowingly made a deal with the devil, and can’t back out.</p>
<p>More specifically, Trump’s very awfulness means that if he falls, the whole party will fall with him. Republicans could conceivably distance themselves from a president who turned out to be a bad manager, or even one who turned out to have engaged in small-time corruption. But when the corruption is big time, and it’s combined with obstruction of justice and collaboration with Putin, nobody will notice which Republicans were a bit less involved, a bit less obsequious, than others. If Trump sinks, he’ll create a vortex that sucks down everyone involved.</p>
<p>And so we now have the Republican party as a whole fully complicit in Trump’s crimes – because that’s what they are, whether or not he and those around him are ever brought to justice.</p>
<p>What this means, among other things, is that expecting the GOP to exercise any oversight or constrain Trump in any way is just foolish at this point. Massive electoral defeat – massive enough to overwhelm gerrymandering and other structural advantages of the right – is the only way out.</p>BenIsNotYoda commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e5e8970d2018-01-05T20:44:03Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZBenIsNotYodathe Fed is not struggling at all. According to their own studies (and Yellen said so in last presser), that...<p>the Fed is not struggling at all. According to their own studies (and Yellen said so in last presser), that they have killed the term premium in bond yields. So the yield curve will be a lot flatter than in history. Sell those bonds, Ms Yellen. Then you can relax about the bond conundrum. Conundrum my ass. They were killing the term premium even in the 2004-06 tightening btw. Boston Fed paper from 2006.</p>BenIsNotYoda commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b64b970b2018-01-05T20:41:35Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZBenIsNotYodaactually not entirely. The low rates on the short end have resulted in these areas traditionally linked to long term...<p>actually not entirely. The low rates on the short end have resulted in these areas traditionally linked to long term interest rates to be linked to short term rates (teasers, floaters etc). These parts of the economy have become sensitive to short term rates much more than they were. and as those short rates rise, so do the interest payments on these floating rate loans. this was evident in the housing crisis as teaser rates climbed.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e51f970d2018-01-05T20:32:15Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, RonActually, "a blind squirrel is a complement" to cut sweet yellow corn, baby lima beans, and diced potatoes in a...<p>Actually, &quot;a blind squirrel is a complement&quot; to cut sweet yellow corn, baby lima beans, and diced potatoes in a rich tomato broth. But thanks for the compliment. </p>kurt commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd03ba970c2018-01-05T20:30:49Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZkurtThey did admit they were wrong and they did try to get more stimulus. Also - when Obama was "turning...<p>They did admit they were wrong and they did try to get more stimulus. Also - when Obama was &quot;turning to deficit reduction&quot; - what do you mean by that? Because he acknowledged that lots of smart people were worried about the deficit?</p>kurt commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b59d970b2018-01-05T20:29:11Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZkurtNo - Republicans explain why their wasn't a second round of stimulus. It wasn't for lack of trying on Obama's...<p>No - Republicans explain why their wasn&#39;t a second round of stimulus. It wasn&#39;t for lack of trying on Obama&#39;s part. Stating otherwise is demonstrably untrue. They have these nifty archives of newspapers and the congressional record exists. Republicans prevented further stimulus, and Republicans intentionally did whatever they could to sabotage the economy under Obama - but do go on blaming the wrong people. </p>kurt commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e4d1970d2018-01-05T20:27:28Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZkurtThat is not what I said and another indication of your bad faith on this board. You said Obama intentionally...<p>That is not what I said and another indication of your bad faith on this board. You said Obama intentionally designed a slow recovery - that is absurd on its face. Why would a President do something so politically stupid on purpose. </p>
<p>Also - Obama is right. The Fed did what it could and ZLB is a problem. Given that Obama&#39;s legal team and the Feds legal team agree that under current law the FED cannot use some of the unconventional monetary stimulus you would like - maybe you might want to reconsider your position? I mean - that seems like what an adult would do - think something through and adjust? </p>
<p>You are still blaming Obama for what Republicans did..... Why?</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e4b7970d2018-01-05T20:25:55Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZanneNations have diplomatic problems and disputes with each other, but the point of diplomacy is to work through the problems...<p>Nations have diplomatic problems and disputes with each other, but the point of diplomacy is to work through the problems to the benefit of each. Pakistan has supported the United States efforts in Afghanistan from the beginning. Suddenly slashing support for Pakistan rather than working through current problems makes a mockery of diplomacy and punishes Pakistan for what has been generally fine support these many years. </p>
<p>The US sudden action strikes me as unfortunate.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd0370970c2018-01-05T20:25:55Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...How I confused myself about this is inexplicable" [Now that was funny.]<p>&quot;...How I confused myself about this is inexplicable&quot;</p>
<p>[Now that was funny.]</p>kurt commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd032f970c2018-01-05T20:24:21Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZkurtOkay - but the assertion was that Obama intentionally and by design caused a slow recovery. That assertion, despite you...<p>Okay - but the assertion was that Obama intentionally and by design caused a slow recovery. That assertion, despite you being correct that Goolsbee had influence and that Summers had influence (as did others), it doesn&#39;t belie the fact that Chris&#39;s claim is patently absurd. </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd0322970c2018-01-05T20:24:01Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZRC AKA Darryl, RonPaine said in reply to Christopher H.... Speaking of bete noir... ...Brad :" humans like morality plays especially ones about...<p>Paine said in reply to Christopher H.... </p>
<p><br />
Speaking of bete noir... </p>
<p><br />
...Brad :&quot; humans like morality plays especially <br />
ones <br />
about transgression and retribution &quot;</p>
<p>Me :,&quot; corporations like macro policy repressed wage rates &quot;</p>
<p>*</p>
<p>[Both things can be true. Economists are humans too, or at least I have heard that to be so although I cannot personally prove that to be true. So, some human economists may like Brad&#39;s &quot;morality plays especially ones about transgression and retribution.&quot; OTOH, &quot;corporations (definitely) like macro policy repressed wage rates.&quot; The unwashed masses have proved that many of them can easily be convinced to believe anything that is said often and loud enough. I do have evidence of that. Exhibit A would be POTUS Donald Trump, but Congress and every POTUS in my lifetime would also be proof.]<br />
</p>kurt commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e409970d2018-01-05T20:20:06Z2018-01-05T23:27:37ZkurtNot a bad idea. I have a 10 year old boy so I had to go. :)<p>Not a bad idea. I have a 10 year old boy so I had to go. :)<br />
</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5e335970d2018-01-05T20:10:23Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlvc January 4, 2018 Employment-Population Ratios, * 2000-2017 * Bachelor's Degree and Higher, Some College or Associate Degree, High School...<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlvc" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlvc</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Employment-Population Ratios, * 2000-2017</p>
<p>* Bachelor&#39;s Degree and Higher, Some College or Associate Degree, High School Graduates, No College; Employment age 25 and over</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd01e0970c2018-01-05T20:09:48Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlvi January 4, 2018 Employment-Population Ratios for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2007-2017 * Employment age 16 and over<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlvi" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlvi</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Employment-Population Ratios for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2007-2017</p>
<p>* Employment age 16 and over</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd0159970c2018-01-05T20:01:02Z2018-01-05T23:27:37Zannehttp://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/trump-could-cut-off-0-05-percent-of-federal-spending-in-aid-to-pakistan January 5, 2018 Trump Could Cut Off 0.05 Percent of Federal Spending in Aid to Pakistan That probably would...<p><a href="http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/trump-could-cut-off-0-05-percent-of-federal-spending-in-aid-to-pakistan" rel="nofollow">http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/trump-could-cut-off-0-05-percent-of-federal-spending-in-aid-to-pakistan</a></p>
<p>January 5, 2018</p>
<p>Trump Could Cut Off 0.05 Percent of Federal Spending in Aid to Pakistan</p>
<p>That probably would be have been helpful information to readers of a Washington Post article * that told readers:</p>
<p>&quot;Up to $2 billion in U.S. aid could be affected by President Donald Trump’s suspension of security assistance to Pakistan, which is accused of failing to crack down on Taliban militants targeting U.S. personnel in neighboring Afghanistan, a senior U.S. administration official said Friday.&quot;</p>
<p>Almost none of the Post&#39;s readers would have any idea of how much $2 billion means to the United States (or to Pakistan, it&#39;s about 0.7 percent of its GDP). The paper could have saved space by just leaving the numbers out of the article since it wasn&#39;t providing information by including them. Unfortunately, there is a reporter fraternity ritual that requires they use numbers that everyone, including them, know to be meaningless to their audience.</p>
<p>While we&#39;re on the topic, the $2.4 billion in food aid the United States provides to the UN ** to combat famine in Africa comes to a bit less than 0.06 percent of the federal budget. Many people mistakenly believe that such aid is a major component of the U.S. budget. If newspapers focused on informing their readers, instead of fraternity rituals, perhaps the public would be better informed.</p>
<p>* <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-suspends-security-assistance-to-pakistan/2018/01/04/c1ac1d66-f1b5-11e7-95e3-eff284e71c8d_story.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-suspends-security-assistance-to-pakistan/2018/01/04/c1ac1d66-f1b5-11e7-95e3-eff284e71c8d_story.html</a></p>
<p>** <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/a-widening-budget-gap-is-forcing-the-un-to-slash-food-aid-to-refugees/2017/12/27/b34cfd40-e5b1-11e7-927a-e72eac1e73b6_story.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/a-widening-budget-gap-is-forcing-the-un-to-slash-food-aid-to-refugees/2017/12/27/b34cfd40-e5b1-11e7-927a-e72eac1e73b6_story.html</a></p>
<p>-- Dean Baker</p>Julio commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b181970b2018-01-05T19:36:19Z2018-01-05T19:36:23ZJuliohttp://profile.typepad.com/juliokI understand how you can get some random data that does not belong to your process (there are some examples...<p>I understand how you can get some random data that does not belong to your process (there are some examples e.g. in github). But can you get enough context to make that data usable in a real exploit? Seems hard to do. I have not seen any examples, can you point me to one?</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b105970b2018-01-05T19:28:35Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron[First attempt was Apparently an autocorrect abortion.] "IOW, is a reincarnation of MLK during his last year of life before...<p>[First attempt was Apparently an autocorrect abortion.]</p>
<p>&quot;IOW, is a reincarnation of MLK during his last year of life before a murderer silenced the one outstanding moral conscience of my lifetime.&quot;</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942b0f1970b2018-01-05T19:26:45Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, RonIOW, is a reincarnation of MLK during his last year of life before a murderer silenced the one outstanding more...<p>IOW, is a reincarnation of MLK during his last year of life before a murderer silenced the one outstanding more conscience of my lifetime.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccfeb2970c2018-01-05T19:24:46Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, RonLet's just hope that the next leader of the Democratic Party understands that full employment is the best way to...<p>Let&#39;s just hope that the next leader of the Democratic Party understands that full employment is the best way to reduce poverty and inequality across all demographic boundaries and then has the psychological and philosophical understanding sufficient to insure that this gets effectively communicated to the electorate across all demographic boundaries.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942ad7f970b2018-01-05T18:50:50Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, RonEveryone says that Donald Trump acts like a child. Now Donald Trump is the boy who cried Wolff. Stephen Colbert...<p>Everyone says that Donald Trump acts like a child. Now Donald Trump is the boy who cried Wolff. Stephen Colbert owes Trump big time. Looks like Michael Wolff owes Trump big time now too. As much as we hear about people wanting to dump Trump my guess is that journalists and comedians don&#39;t want him to ever go away. When Donald Trump claimed to be good for business then I don&#39;t think these were the businesses that he meant.</p>
<p>Have a great new year. It is going to be a big laugh all the way to November 6.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942aca9970b2018-01-05T18:40:35Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, RonAfter a recession then there is still the recovery and after the recovery there is a period of stability and...<p>After a recession then there is still the recovery and after the recovery there is a period of stability and growing confidence where pent up demand for major purchases such as homes and autos is unleashed. If demand for homes and autos did not soften after a while in post-recovery then we would have something to worry about.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5dbbd970d2018-01-05T18:37:17Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...Raising rates will hit interest sensitive areas of the economy - houses and auto sales (which have softened)..." [You see,...<p>&quot;...Raising rates will hit interest sensitive areas of the economy - houses and auto sales (which have softened)...&quot;</p>
<p>[You see, here is where the blind squirrel reference comes from. Although there is the notion rampant that long term interest rates will follow the FFR due to (the Fed projecting) expectations the more concrete reality is that long term interest rates are market based, much (rather MUCH) like long term treasuries. Auto loans are medium or intermediate in term, but still market based. So, what is the market saying? Long term safe (treasury) rates are still very low. Interestingly home mortgage interest rates have remained very low, because they are long and for conforming loans also effectively safe unless there is another recession. Auto loans are just weird as they depend very much on the borrower&#39;s job and credit rating first and foremost (which is not weird), but then second most of all they depend upon what firm that the auto is purchased from. New cars from dealers usually have credit deals with low rates attached. Used cars vary like crazy from independents, but are roughly the same as new cars when late model low mileage from primary OEM dealerships. So, auto loan interest rates are heavily skewed by promotional gimmicks on the one hand and unusual risk premiums on the other hand which effect market competition for auto loans more generally.</p>
<p>This is not to say that you have the wrong prescription, but instead that you have correctly prescribed despite diagnosing the wrong disease. The FOMC finds itself struggling to lead long term interest rates that do not appear to want to be lead when what it should do is have the FFR follow the signals of the market based long term credit market. If the Fed just allowed a little wage lead inflation in the economy then long term interest rates would rise in the market in response to market expectations rather than the Fed&#39;s futile attempts to project expectations upon the market. Then the Fed would merely need to follow along to keep the interest rate spread from becoming too large rather than to struggle to keep the spread large enough.]</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccf858970c2018-01-05T18:10:11Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron[Also, reminiscent of the first line of the serenity prayer.] "God grant me the serenity to accept the things I...<p>[Also, reminiscent of the first line of the serenity prayer.]</p>
<p>&quot;God grant me the serenity<br />
to accept the things I cannot change; <br />
courage to change the things I can; <br />
and wisdom to know the difference...&quot;</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5d883970d2018-01-05T18:05:12Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"at this point, a blind squirrel is a complement to me..." [Well, it was really not meant to be an...<p>&quot;at this point, a blind squirrel is a complement to me...&quot;</p>
<p>[Well, it was really not meant to be an insult, just a description, likewise knee-jerk liberal. In various ways at various times in my life I have been both, even both a blind squirrel and a knee-jerk liberal both at the same time. None of us are born into this world as wise or sagely. Most of us do not get to leave this world with much progress towards those ends either. That is why humility is still a virtue, despite so many claims to the contrary.]</p>
<p>&quot;... as compared to an academic blinded by your own hubris.&quot;</p>
<p>[&quot;Your&quot; choice of possessive pronoun there puzzles me. If it was intended to indicate me with the second person possessive pronoun, then indeed I take that as a high compliment, hubris and all as it were. For you should know by now as many times as I have written it here at EV, my formal educational attainment ended when I got my high school diploma. When Paine labeled me an autodidact some years ago, then I had to look it up just to know that it was true.</p>
<p>Thank you, I think.] </p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a729970b2018-01-05T17:33:56Z2018-01-05T19:47:54ZFred C. DobbsPakistan & Iran. There have been overtures between the two in recent months. Note that Iran is 90-95% Shia, and...<p>Pakistan &amp; Iran.</p>
<p>There have been overtures <br />
between the two in recent months.</p>
<p>Note that Iran is 90-95% Shia,<br />
and Pakistan is 75-95% Sunni,<br />
according to Wikipedia.</p>
<p>A PEW survey in 2012 found that 6% of those who responded to its survey in Pakistan declared themselves as Shia. (Wikipedia)</p>djb commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a620970b2018-01-05T17:24:03Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zdjbi wish our economists felt a little more nagged<p>i wish our economists felt a little more nagged</p>BenIsNotYoda commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a61c970b2018-01-05T17:23:56Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZBenIsNotYodait does not take rocket science to figure this out. Raising rates will hit interest sensitive areas of the economy...<p>it does not take rocket science to figure this out.<br />
Raising rates will hit interest sensitive areas of the economy - houses and auto sales (which have softened).</p>
<p>It is easy to see why the Fed does not want to sell bonds - to keep asset prices up for their handlers. They are not idiots, just crooked academics.</p>
<p>so my recommendation would actually help the not so well off at the expense of those who are well off. </p>
<p>Cue the knee-jerk neo liberal response now making the opposite arguments.</p>BenIsNotYoda commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccf33a970c2018-01-05T17:15:03Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZBenIsNotYodaat this point, a blind squirrel is a complement to me as compared to an academic blinded by your own...<p>at this point, a blind squirrel is a complement to me as compared to an academic blinded by your own hubris.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccf2f9970c2018-01-05T17:10:26Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hljR January 4, 2018 Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees in Manufacturing and Construction, 2007-2017 (Percent change)<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hljR" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hljR</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees in Manufacturing and Construction, 2007-2017</p>
<p>(Percent change)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5d376970d2018-01-05T16:59:34Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hljl January 4, 2018 Average Hourly Earnings of All Private Workers, 2007-2017 (Percent change)<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hljl" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hljl</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Average Hourly Earnings of All Private Workers, 2007-2017</p>
<p>(Percent change)</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a417970b2018-01-05T16:58:59Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...They need to stop raising rates at this point. but shrink the QE portfolio faster..." [You may really be on...<p>&quot;...They need to stop raising rates at this point. but shrink the QE portfolio faster...&quot;</p>
<p>[You may really be on to something there. Not bad as blind squirrels go.]</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a3e5970b2018-01-05T16:56:36Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonBlaming others has always been the easiest way to accept one's own failures. It has never done much though for...<p>Blaming others has always been the easiest way to accept one&#39;s own failures. It has never done much though for learning how to avoid future failures.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccf1d0970c2018-01-05T16:54:39Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"Turn! Turn! Turn!" The Byrds To everything - turn, turn, turn There is a season - turn, turn, turn And...<p>&quot;Turn! Turn! Turn!&quot;</p>
<p>The Byrds </p>
<p><br />
To everything - turn, turn, turn<br />
There is a season - turn, turn, turn<br />
And a time to every purpose under heaven</p>
<p> A time to be born, a time to die<br />
A time to plant, a time to reap<br />
A time to kill, a time to heal<br />
A time to laugh, a time to weep</p>
<p> To everything - turn, turn, turn<br />
There is a season - turn, turn, turn<br />
And a time to every purpose under heaven</p>
<p> A time to build up, a time to break down<br />
A time to dance, a time to mourn<br />
A time to cast away stones<br />
A time to gather stones together</p>
<p> To everything - turn, turn, turn<br />
There is a season - turn, turn, turn<br />
And a time to every purpose under heaven</p>
<p> A time of love, a time of hate<br />
A time of war, a time of peace<br />
A time you may embrace<br />
A time to refrain from embracing</p>
<p> To everything - turn, turn, turn<br />
There is a season - turn, turn, turn<br />
And a time to every purpose under heaven</p>
<p> A time to gain, a time to lose<br />
A time to rend, a time to sew<br />
A time for love, a time for hate<br />
A time for peace, I swear it&#39;s not too late! </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a3b7970b2018-01-05T16:53:53Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonBTW, most of my battle occurs over the winter in the cold while growth is dormant. That is because the...<p>BTW, most of my battle occurs over the winter in the cold while growth is dormant. That is because the largest amount of work involved is removal of invasive plants that established themselves quite well while I was still working. I will do some planting of camellias with the advent of spring and some planting of rhododendrons with the advent of fall, but no more than a few sunflowers between the equinoxes. This spring though I will need to clean and stain the privacy fence around our pool. I hope next spring I will be fishing the nearby James River, but that will take re-rigging my canoe over next fall/winter. That will be relatively light work, so I may even do that this summer. Beginning with May it is too hot to do much more than just maintain the yard and pool, which is still substantial work but not exactly what one considers making improvements as contrasted to just holding ground against nature. Gee, reminds me of a song.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a35b970b2018-01-05T16:50:28Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZanneThis latest series of historical writings from Branko Milanovic strikes me as superb and I have been editing and posting...<p>This latest series of historical writings from Branko Milanovic strikes me as superb and I have been editing and posting them as they appear.</p>
<p>The abstract, introduction and conclusion to this essay are posted on this thread above:</p>
<p> <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83068/1/MPRA_paper_83068.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83068/1/MPRA_paper_83068.pdf</a></p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5d1c2970d2018-01-05T16:42:34Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.Hillary would never have cut off Pakistan.<p>Hillary would never have cut off Pakistan.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5d178970d2018-01-05T16:41:29Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.Hillary and our local deep thinkers here told us it's too expensive. Bernie was promising free ponies we can't afford....<p>Hillary and our local deep thinkers here told us it&#39;s too expensive. Bernie was promising free ponies we can&#39;t afford.</p>
<p>But the Republicans can afford to reward their donors with a $1.5 trillion tax cut.</p>BenIsNotYoda commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccf077970c2018-01-05T16:39:55Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZBenIsNotYodaThe Fed needs to do less, not more. They do not have the tools. trying to cure inequality through keeping...<p>The Fed needs to do less, not more.</p>
<p>They do not have the tools. trying to cure inequality through keeping rates lower than otherwise is the latest madness to strike the academic core that drives idiotic Fed policy.</p>
<p>In trying to prevent crises, they sow seeds for more and bigger crises. In trying to over manage economies (hitting inflation targets) they introduce big distortions in markets and economies. Trying to underwrite every risk has made the risks bigger (a quantified phenomenon in insurance markets).</p>
<p>They need to stop raising rates at this point. but shrink the QE portfolio faster. It is nothing but distortion. they need to bring normalcy back to the economy and the market. Let us be. activist Fed has given us nothing but boom bust.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5d15d970d2018-01-05T16:39:48Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.Fake News!<p>Fake News!</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccf051970c2018-01-05T16:38:46Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-wolff-trump-had-little-interest-in-repealing-obamacare-floated-medicare-for-all/article/2645078 Michael Wolff: Trump had little interest in repealing Obamacare, floated 'Medicare for All' by Kimberly Leonard | Jan 5,...<p><a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-wolff-trump-had-little-interest-in-repealing-obamacare-floated-medicare-for-all/article/2645078" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-wolff-trump-had-little-interest-in-repealing-obamacare-floated-medicare-for-all/article/2645078</a></p>
<p>Michael Wolff: Trump had little interest in repealing Obamacare, floated &#39;Medicare for All&#39;</p>
<p>by Kimberly Leonard | Jan 5, 2018, 9:50 AM </p>
<p>...</p>
<p>Trump also reportedly asked his aides aloud, &quot;Why can&#39;t Medicare simply cover everybody?&quot;</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5d138970d2018-01-05T16:37:38Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.Hillary and the DNC spent $800 million on consultants and they still lost to a dumpster fire of a Republican...<p>Hillary and the DNC spent $800 million on consultants and they still lost to a dumpster fire of a Republican campaign. Trump didn&#39;t even want to win.</p>
<p>The hubris and lack of awareness it takes to fail to see this is rather astounding. So they blame the voters. They blame Comey. They blame the Russians. These aren&#39;t the droids you&#39;re looking for. Keep moving.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a1de970b2018-01-05T16:35:36Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonUnderstood. My hope is always that the time, money, and mental effort that I put into making it better will...<p>Understood. My hope is always that the time, money, and mental effort that I put into making it better will not instead unintentionally make it worse. Actually, it is not just my hope, but the subject of about half of the mental effort involved. Only about half of the mental effort goes to researching and planning in turn the execution of each step of my process. The other half of my mental effort is expended upon the big picture of how all of the individual things fit together and depend upon each other to determine opportunity costs, critical path, and external dependencies such as seasonal likelihoods of weather that contributes to the overall success. The job that I have to do is so large that with simple piecemeal execution then I work myself to death and still come up short. </p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccefea970c2018-01-05T16:33:44Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.Hillary and the DNC spent $800 million on consultants and they still lost to a dumpster fire of a Republican...<p>Hillary and the DNC spent $800 million on consultants and they still lost to a dumpster fire of a Republican campaign. Trump didn&#39;t even want to win.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a1b5970b2018-01-05T16:33:22Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZFred C. Dobbs(Expect deeper ties between Pakistan and China, also Iran.) Cutting Off Pakistan, U.S. Takes Gamble in Complex Afghan War https://nyti.ms/2EbnZoz...<p>(Expect deeper ties between <br />
Pakistan and China, also Iran.)</p>
<p>Cutting Off Pakistan, U.S. Takes Gamble <br />
in Complex Afghan War <a href="https://nyti.ms/2EbnZoz" rel="nofollow">https://nyti.ms/2EbnZoz</a><br />
NYT - MUJIB MASHAL and SALMAN MASOOD - JAN. 5, 2018 </p>
<p>Afghan officials have pleaded with three American presidents to reconsider their support for Pakistan, which was both receiving billions of dollars in American aid and harboring the leaders of a Taliban insurgency that the United States has struggled to defeat.</p>
<p>But when President Trump suspended nearly all American security aid to Pakistan on Thursday for what he called the country’s “lies and deceit,” any jubilation in the halls of power in Afghanistan — and there was some — was leavened with worry over how the move might affect a complex war that has pushed the Afghan government to the brink.</p>
<p>If there is one consensus among Afghan leaders and their American counterparts, it is that dealing with Pakistan is both vital and difficult.</p>
<p>American and Afghan officials accuse Pakistan’s powerful military intelligence service of maintaining influence with the Taliban and the group’s most ascendant faction, the Haqqani network, which is behind many of the large-scale attacks on Afghan cities. Through those links, Pakistan has the ability to control at least some of the tempo of the fighting in Afghanistan — and it has done little to constrain it over the past two years, the officials say.</p>
<p>At the same time, Pakistan enjoys leverage over the American military response to that militant violence: The United States mission has always relied on Pakistani air and ground routes for supplies to the troops in Afghanistan.</p>
<p>The question on the table after the cutoff of military aid to Pakistan is who will come under the most pressure: the Pakistanis, or the coalition fighting the Taliban.</p>
<p>Muhammed Umer Daudzai, a former Afghan interior minister and ambassador to Pakistan, said the pressure on Pakistan had come too late, with the country having developed regional allies who would help it weather the financial toll.</p>
<p>“The financial sanctions may not bite Pakistan because they have developed alternatives,” Mr. Daudzai said. “The only area the impact could be huge, but it’s a bit too early to judge, is the field of air force. The Pakistani system is still hugely dependent on the U.S. It can take a long time to switch from that.” ...<br />
</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccef34970c2018-01-05T16:27:12Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttp://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/schumpeters-two-theories-of-imperialism.html January 4, 2018 Schumpeter’s two theories of imperialism Recently Thomas Hauner, Suresh Naidu and I published the draft of...<p><a href="http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/schumpeters-two-theories-of-imperialism.html" rel="nofollow">http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/schumpeters-two-theories-of-imperialism.html</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Schumpeter’s two theories of imperialism</p>
<p>Recently Thomas Hauner, Suresh Naidu and I published the draft of a joint piece * that examines empirically several links in the Hobson-Lenin-Luxemburg theory of imperialism. I will not discuss it here (the interested reader may consult the first section of our paper) because I would like to focus on another contemporary theory of imperialism, Schumpeter’s.</p>
<p>Schumpeter’s theory is interesting for several reasons. It was formulated at the same time as Lenin’s and Luxemburg’s and clearly with the knowledge of the two. It reacts to the exactly the same events as theirs. It is different though and it was held by Schumpeter throughout his life. The key text for Schumpeter’s theory is “The sociology of imperialisms” (note the plural) published in 1918-19. It is a very long essay of some tightly printed 80 pages in its English translation. Schumpeter did not change anything (of substance at least) to the theory as can be seen from its brief reappearance in his “Capitalism, socialism and democracy” (CSD), published in 1942 (and republished many times since).</p>
<p>What Schumpeter says is the following. Imperialism, most purely defined, is “objectless”, that is, it is not directed against something or somebody that can be shown to impede one’s interest. It is thus not rational: it is a simple will to power. The canonic examples, according to Schumpeter, are Assyrians, Persians, Arabs and Franks (all four discussed quite extensively). He then adds Rome where imperialism reflected class interests of the upper strata and where Schumpeter’s analysis is as materialistic as it can be. (And he has some especially nasty things to say about Rome which for the interest of space I will have to skip).</p>
<p>Now, imperialism as such is atavistic and in contradiction with “normal” capitalism which is rational and individualistic and whose objectives can be much better achieved in peace and by peace. We should thus expect imperialism to diminish as capitalism becomes stronger. The least imperialistic are the most capitalistic countries like the United States.</p>
<p>This, I think, is the usual reading of Schumpeter’s theory and it can be related to similar theories from Montesquieu’s doux commerce to Doyle’s democratic peace (although Schumpeter really talks about capitalistic peace).</p>
<p>However, I think that an alternative reading of Schumpeter is possible, based on his own writings and view of capitalism.</p>
<p>In “Imperialisms…” Schumpeter allows that imperialism can appears in capitalistic societies. But there “we must evidently see [imperialistic tendencies] only as alien elements carried into the world of capitalism from the outside, supported by non-capitalistic factors in modern life.” </p>
<p>But (and it is a crucial “but”) if capitalism is not the one of perfect competition and free trade but capitalism of monopolies then Schumpeter allows that “organized capital may very well make the discovery that the interest rate can be maintained above the level of free competition if the resulting surplus (my emphasis) can be sent abroad.” “Organized capital” may realize that it has a lot to gain from having colonies. Schumpeter continues “they can use cheap native labor...; they can market their products even in the colonies at monopoly prices; they can finally invest capital that would only depress the profit at home and that could be placed in other civilized counties only at very low interest rates.” ...</p>
<p>* <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83068/1/MPRA_paper_83068.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83068/1/MPRA_paper_83068.pdf</a></p>
<p>-- Branko Milanovic</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cceebd970c2018-01-05T16:22:01Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonScience may answer the question of what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object one day, but will...<p>Science may answer the question of what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object one day, but will likely never be able to predict what happens when a knee-jerk liberal meets a reactionary blind squirrel.</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c942a04e970b2018-01-05T16:15:43Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZEMichaelI have no idea where that comes from. Anyway, I will tell you what you know right now. This spring...<p>I have no idea where that comes from. Anyway, I will tell you what you know right now.</p>
<p>This spring you will once again enter into battle against your property. Moving this; clearing that; planting that; fighting bugs and/or weather; and a variety of other operations that are beyond my scope.</p>
<p>All to get your property where you want it to be. You will have successes and failures(hope not too many), but you will not stop trying to make it better. </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccee18970c2018-01-05T16:14:34Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonIt seemed to me that BINY was talking about QE rather than the FFR. They are very different things and...<p>It seemed to me that BINY was talking about QE rather than the FFR. They are very different things and there is some reason to consider that the long term effects of QE might work against one&#39;s own later FFR policy directions because of hysteresis in the long maturity bond market. </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9429fdf970b2018-01-05T16:10:00Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonWell, I guess that we really do have the answer then. If the establishment Democratic Party elite leadership just had...<p>Well, I guess that we really do have the answer then. If the establishment Democratic Party elite leadership just had better followers then everything would be fine. The leadership is great, it is just those pesky darned followers that screw everything up. Sure, that makes perfect sense. </p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5cedd970d2018-01-05T16:01:14Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZFred C. DobbsFire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House by Michael Wolff https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fire-and-fury-michael-wolff/1127464088?ean=9781250158062#/ (if not already sold-out)<p>Fire and Fury: Inside the <br />
Trump White House by Michael Wolff <a href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fire-and-fury-michael-wolff/1127464088?ean=9781250158062#/" rel="nofollow">https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fire-and-fury-michael-wolff/1127464088?ean=9781250158062#/</a></p>
<p>(if not already sold-out)</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cced65970c2018-01-05T16:01:05Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZEMichaelSo, when should Bernake have raised rates and by how much?<p>So, when should Bernake have raised rates and by how much?</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cced62970c2018-01-05T16:01:02Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttps://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74877/1/MPRA_paper_74877.pdf November 2, 2016 Towards an explanation of inequality in pre-modern societies: the role of colonies and high population density...<p><a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74877/1/MPRA_paper_74877.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74877/1/MPRA_paper_74877.pdf</a></p>
<p>November 2, 2016</p>
<p>Towards an explanation of inequality in pre-modern societies: the role of colonies and high population density <br />
By Branko Milanovic</p>
<p>Abstract</p>
<p>Using the newly expanded set of 40 social tables from pre-modern societies, the paper tries to find out the factors associated with the level of inequality and the inequality extraction ratio (how close to the maximum inequality have the elites pushed the actual inequality). We find strong evidence that elites in colonies were more extractive, and that more densely populated countries exhibited lower extraction ratios. We propose several possibilities linking high population density to low inequality and to low elite extraction.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9429f66970b2018-01-05T15:59:59Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZRC AKA Darryl, RonI will tell you what I know on November 7, 2018. Until then all that I have is conjecture, concern,...<p>I will tell you what I know on November 7, 2018. Until then all that I have is conjecture, concern, and worry.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccecbc970c2018-01-05T15:53:02Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZFred C. DobbsPublisher responds by moving up the release date to today! At yer local booksellers now!<p>Publisher responds by moving up<br />
the release date to today! At<br />
yer local booksellers now!</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ccec1e970c2018-01-05T15:45:09Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hle9 January 4, 2018 Employment-Population Ratios for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2000-2017 * Employment age 16 and over (Indexed...<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hle9" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hle9</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Employment-Population Ratios for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2000-2017</p>
<p>* Employment age 16 and over</p>
<p>(Indexed to 2000)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9429e49970b2018-01-05T15:43:04Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hldV January 4, 2018 United States Employment-Population Ratios for Men and Women, * 2000-2017 * Employment age 25-54<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hldV" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hldV</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>United States Employment-Population Ratios for Men and Women, * 2000-2017</p>
<p>* Employment age 25-54</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5cd51970d2018-01-05T15:41:11Z2018-01-05T17:30:56Zannehttp://cepr.net/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/jobs-2018-01 January 5, 2018 Job Growth Slows Modestly, But Black Unemployment Falls to Record Low By Dean Baker The annual...<p><a href="http://cepr.net/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/jobs-2018-01" rel="nofollow">http://cepr.net/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/jobs-2018-01</a></p>
<p>January 5, 2018 </p>
<p>Job Growth Slows Modestly, But Black Unemployment Falls to Record Low<br />
By Dean Baker</p>
<p>The annual rate of wage growth over the last three months, compared to the prior three, was just 1.7 percent</p>
<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported slightly weaker than expected job growth in December, with the economy adding 148,000 jobs. There was a modest downward revision to the data for the prior two months, which brought the three-month average to 204,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month.</p>
<p>The best news in this report was the drop in the unemployment rate for blacks to 6.8 percent, the lowest since these data were first collected in 1972. The previous low was 7.0 percent in April of 2000. This is consistent with the view that a low unemployment rate disproportionately benefits the most disadvantaged groups. The black unemployment rate averages close to twice the white unemployment rate. This ratio has been reduced somewhat as the labor market tightened. The unemployment rate for whites in December was 3.7 percent.</p>
<p>Healthy job growth has continued to pull more prime-age workers (ages 25 to 54) into the labor market with the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) edging up to 79.1 percent. This is a new high for the recovery, but it is still more than a full percentage point below its pre-recession level and 2.8 percentage points below the peak high in 2000.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that the EPOPs of varying demographic groups have not followed a predictable pattern since 2000. In the last recovery, women in the 25-to-34 age group showed the sharpest falloff in EPOPs. At present, they one of the groups closest to recovering their 2000 EPOP. While men in the 25 to 34 grouping now show the sharpest falloff in EPOPs among prime-age workers, their EPOPs pretty much moved with the EPOPs for other prime-age workers in the last recovery. This suggests caution in assuming that changes in these EPOPs are due to supply-side issues as opposed to the strength of the labor market.</p>
<p>[Graph]</p>
<p>In this respect, it is worth noting that less-educated workers continue to be the biggest gainers from the continuing expansion. The EPOP for workers with just a high school degree has risen by 0.6 percentage points over the last year. For workers without a high school degree it has risen by 0.5 percentage points. By contrast, for workers with a college degree it is unchanged.</p>
<p>Other news in the household survey was mixed. All the duration measures of unemployment fell, with the average and median duration hitting new lows for the recovery, albeit still slightly higher than pre-recession levels. On the other hand, the percent of unemployment due to voluntary quits edged down to 10.9 percent. By comparison, it was over 13.7 percent in 2000. </p>
<p>On the payroll side, a disproportionate share of the job growth occurred in the goods-producing sector with construction adding 30,000 jobs and manufacturing adding 25,000 jobs. Employment in the mining and logging sector overall was unchanged, although coal mining lost jobs for the third consecutive month.</p>
<p>Health care added 31,400 jobs and restaurants added 25,100 jobs, both in line with their averages over the last year. The professional and technical services lost 4,700 jobs, the first decline in more than two years. This was driven by a loss of 15,400 jobs in accounting, a decline that is sure to be reversed as a result of the new tax law. The big loser was retail, which lost 20,300 jobs. Employment in the sector is down by 66,500 over the last year or 0.4 percent.</p>
<p>The most troublesome item in this report is the continued weakness of wages. The average hourly wage rose 2.5 percent over the last year, but this may actually be slowing. The annual rate for the last three months compared with the prior three months has been just 1.7 percent....</p>BenIsNotYoda commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5cd45970d2018-01-05T15:40:47Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZBenIsNotYodaBOJ, ECB, BOC, BOE etc show Bernanke how its done. Bernanke started the ZIRP/QE madness back in 2008. The one...<p>BOJ, ECB, BOC, BOE etc show Bernanke how its done.</p>
<p>Bernanke started the ZIRP/QE madness back in 2008. The one tangible benefit that happened for the economy was the big fall in the dollar that showed up in a smaller trade deficit. However, as predicted, this was the classic beggar thy neighbor policy. As soon as the rest of the central banks caught up on the game and started doing QE bigger and better (sarcasm), the dollar rose. Now we just registered the biggest monthly ex-petroleum trade deficit in history. Good work Bernanke and his worshippers. keep up the good work. All that nonsense policy to do nothing but bid up asset prices. Hang your hat on it. Live and die by stock prices. that is what the Fed actions have boiled down to.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-03-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e5cb3a970d2018-01-05T15:16:22Z2018-01-05T17:30:56ZChristopher H.How much propaganda were the voters subjected to by "dark money," PACs, and American propaganda? I know I was subjected...<p>How much propaganda were the voters subjected to by &quot;dark money,&quot; PACs, and American propaganda? I know I was subjected to constant propaganda by the corporate media during the primary.</p>