Kirsten Gillibrand measure faces tough climb

The New York Democrat has hit a dry spell in her campaign for new supporters. | AP Photo

Likewise, Scott told POLITICO that he is still weighing the issue and is talking to military personnel, including his two brothers who are in the military.

“They are both in leadership, so they definitely have opinions on it, but I am going to let that stay in the family,” Scott said of his brothers, who serve as a colonel in the Air Force and a command sergeant in the Army. “But they both did give me the same advice, which was to make sure that you talk to women in uniform and that you talk to women in uniform who are officers, women in uniform who are enlisted.”

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Flake told POLITICO that he isn’t familiar with the issues yet because he’s not on the Armed Services Committee but said he planned to talk with his fellow senators this week, including Gillibrand. For now, he said he is “leaning toward” an alternative plan written by Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) that makes more than two dozen other changes to Pentagon sexual assault policies but stops well short of altering the chain of command.

Reid, the Senate majority leader who has promised to allow Gillibrand a floor vote, also hasn’t shown his cards yet. Kristen Orthman, a Reid spokeswoman, responded to POLITICO’s query saying only that the Nevada Democrat “believes the problem of sexual assault in the military is unacceptable” and is meeting with senators who have legislation to address the issue.

Whitehouse, a former special assistant attorney general of Rhode Island, said he hoped the Department of Justice would weigh in more strongly on the issue.

Barrasso explained that he’s been meeting with local military officials and key senators but still isn’t ready to declare his vote in public. Asked whether he is waiting until the roll call to take sides, Barrasso replied, “Do you have a date on the vote?”

Gillibrand said she’s planning to meet with every undecided senator before the floor debate, as well as Armed Services Committee members like Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) who voted against her back in June when this issue came up there. She said there’s been enough new developments — letters of support from retired brass, including the first woman to become a three-star Army general, and a vote in favor of her proposal from one of the Pentagon’s own advisory panels.

“I want to go back to these individual senators who only made their judgment based on whatever knowledge they had at that moment, which might not have been complete, so I want to go back to them and present the full case, and I think some senators who did vote no may well relook at the issue,” Gillibrand said.

Even with a 60-vote threshold, Gillibrand backers said they wouldn’t rule out a miracle. They noted the filibuster threats before the Senate earlier this year voted to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act.

“I don’t think anything is impossible,” said Eleanor Smeal, president of Feminist Majority Foundation. “When it comes down to it, how many of these folks want to filibuster women getting a chance to have justice?”

But others tracking the debate say that Gillibrand’s campaign is running out of time.

“The pool of undecideds is small, and it doesn’t seem she’s been able to win many, if any, of them over,” said one Senate aide at the center of the legislative debate. “In short, the well has dried up in terms of new support she’ll be able to attract.”

“Hard to see on the substance how you get from 46 to 60,” added Arnold Punaro, a former Senate Armed Services Committee staff director and retired Marine Corps major general. He said Gillibrand will have a hard time saying she didn’t at least get a chance on her proposal if other amendments to the Defense bill also require 60 votes, including new restrictions on surveillance at the National Security Agency.

If she loses, Gillibrand said she won’t be going away. There’s always another Defense authorization bill. Also, she’s still the chairwoman of the Senate subcommittee in charge of military personnel issues.

“We’ll just keep fighting every year,” she said. “I feel responsible for every single one of these victims, and I feel I have to do something to protect them and give them hope for justice.”