With the season officially 75% of the way done, the MVP race is about as hot as it gets right now. Every team has 4 games remaining, meaning there’s plenty of time for any of the front runners to improve their resume or ruin their shot at earning the MVP. This year’s race is particularly interesting to me because there has been a bit of a changing of the guard at the top of the QB position. Tom Brady has still been a top 10 quarterback this season, but is finally beginning to look like the years have caught up on him. It’s irrefutable that Brady hasn’t been less dominant since the early 2000s, and 2018 has been debatably the worst season of his career barring injury and his rookie season as a fourth-string QB. All signs are pointing to 2018 being the first year in which Brady doesn’t receive a vote for MVP since 2012. Likewise, Aaron Rodgers has been good, but has failed to live up to his lofty standards so far as well. His team’s record certainly keeps him out of the MVP conversation, and in all likelihood have to win out and get lucky to make the playoffs. While Rodgers has been out of the picture in two of the previous five seasons due to injury, this is the first season in a while where Rodgers doesn’t seem to be able to will the Packers to victory. Of course, the other QB who has been consistently been at the top of the QB hierarchy for the past half-decade is MVP contender Drew Brees -- but more on him later. Of course, the 2018 NFL season cannot be discussed without Patrick Mahomes. His performance this year has exceeded the wildest dreams of Chiefs fans and it looks like Mahomes will be in the MVP conversation for years to come. Jared Goff leads the team with the best record in the league and is fourth in yards, TDs, and passer rating. Andrew Luck has quieted the critics this season after disappearing for nearly three years, but he’s not in the MVP race this year. Five first round rookie QBs all have multiple wins under their belts now, and Mitch Trubisky and DeShaun Watson lead a pair of 8-3 teams. It does finally feel like the long anticipated transition from the old-guard of NFL QBs is underway, and with it a new batch of players to award MVPs. Every player I will consider has never won the award previously, so voter fatigue will not be an element in this conversation for the first time in years. With all the pieces set up for the most interesting MVP race in years, I’ll be breaking down the campaigns for the four QBs and two RBs who still have a chance.

Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City ChiefsOf course, this race has two heavy favorites: Mahomes and Brees. QBs have won 5 consecutive MVPs, and these two QBs have been the two best all season, and in almost every way have put together near carbon copy resumes this season. Statistically, these have definitely been the two best QBs with both QBs leading in several categories. Winningly, both command 10-2 teams, with the slight advantage going to Mahomes, whose Chiefs are currently in first place of the AFC and control their seeding destiny. Mahomes’ real advantage comes in how much he has transformed this offense from last year. Brees has been the starter for nearly every game in New Orleans since 2006, so no one really has any clue what this offense would look like without him. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have undergone a nearly unprecedented offensive explosion from 2017 to 2018. This metamorphosis is especially impressive when you consider that Mahomes took over for a respectable starter in Alex Smith, who clearly had been keeping the Redskins afloat prior to his injury. Of course, both the Saints’ and Chiefs’ offenses are loaded with talent outside of QB, but the Chiefs have gone from an elite offense in 2017 to being an all-time great offense in 2018 thanks to Patrick Mahomes. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA offensive efficiency metric, the Chiefs had the 4th best offense in the NFL in 2017 with a 15.7% offensive efficiency. In 2018 their offensive DVOA has soared up to 39.0% (+23.3%), good enough for 4th highest of all time. I tried to find a similar positive jump in recent years, and there just isn't one. The best comparison I could find is Peyton Manning falling from elite in 2014 to a bad back-up QB in 2015. In 2014 the Broncos came in at an even 20.0% DVOA and then fell off a cliff along with Peyton Manning in 2014, with a -8.7% (-28.7%) DVOA. Of course, neither of these changes were entirely in the QB, but Mahomes has made Alex Smith look like a back-up quarterback, which speaks volumes to how good he’s been this season, and would suggest Mahomes’ play style has spread the field and allowed everyone in offense to shine. In more traditional stats, Mahomes leads the league with 41 TDs (9 ahead of second) and is only 22 yards behind Ben Roethlisberger in passing yards with 3923. The only real blemish on his resume is his 10 INTs, five of which came in the Patriots and Rams games.

Drew Brees, QB New Orleans SaintsBrees, has just about every reason to vote Mahomes going for himself as well. His impact on his offense might be easier to overlook due to his consistency for over a decade, but that also plays out in his favor in the sense that votres may be compelled to vote for the best QB to never win MVP while they still can. Make no mistake, if Brees wins this year, the MVP will not be a lifetime achievement award. He has been debatably the best QB in the league and plays for debatably the best team. His lack of bad plays and bag games probably would have made him the favorite. Until he had a bad game filled with ugly plays. This award was Brees’ to lose until his no-good very bad Thursday against the Cowboys. He still has debatably the best statistics in the league, but Mahomes has not been contained like that once this season. Brees was limited to 39 first half passing yards, and 127 passing yards total, including an interception that may have been the worst of his career. Brees still has plenty of time to recover, but he may need some help. Ultimately, I think MVP voters think more about season storylines than stats, but Brees has certainly avoided the negative plays that may have cost an already talented team. While Brees has thrown for 11 less touchdowns and over 600 less yards, he has thrown three interceptions to Mahomes’ 1o and taken 12 sacks to Mahomes’ 20. A criticism of Brees could be that he throws more screens in the backfield to great athletes, making his job easier than Mahomes’. However, Brees ranks 11th in air yards per completion while Mahomes ranks 6th, per NFL Next Gen Stats. So neither QB has been remarkable in that department, but both are good. Eclipsing Peyton Manning in all-time passing yardage will certainly only do Brees favors come voting time. Statistically, these two QBs are close enough that I think most voters will come down to picking whichever narrative they like best: the sophomore QB who has transformed his team, or the reliable legend who is flourishing while he has a competitive team again.

Jared Goff, QB Saint Louis RamsThe argument for Goff comes down to him being one of the best QBs and playing for the team with the best record in the NFL. There is no doubt that the Rams are a great team, if not the best in the league and Goff has had a fantastic season. I don’t believe that many voters out there think Goff is the best QB in the NFL, but he is 4th in passing yards, 6th in TDs, 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, and probably most importantly, tied for first in 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives. Only DeShaun Watson also has four of each. I definitely anticipate Goff to receive a few votes for making a ton of crucial plays for the team that will probably be the Super Bowl favorites by the time the ballots are cast. Maybe any other QB wouldn’t have gotten the Rams to this record, nor made them the favorites to win to win the Super Bowl. More certainly, Goff will need to either have an out of this world final quarter to the season, or the other top QBs will have to fall apart.

Philip Rivers, QB Los Angeles Chargers

The last QB in this race is a long-shot for now, but has an outside chance of wiping out a front-runner and boasts an incredibly similar profile to Drew Brees. The Chargers are a very good and complete team this season, as everyone knows but no one seems to care about. The national indifference to the Chargers is reasonable as they are stuck in the fast lane to a wild card bid thanks to a Week 1 loss at home to the Chiefs, but they’ve remained within striking distance. At one game behind, their biggest blunder was picking the Broncos to end a six-game winning streak against. Even if the Chargers got a potential record-tying win in Kansas City Week 15, they’ll still be in second in the West because of division winning percentage, barring a KC loss to Oakland. After beating the Steelers on Sunday night, if the Chargers can beat the Chiefs they will have a legitimate argument for being the best team in the AFC, and a real shot at earning that all-important first seed. Should the Chargers win the AFC West, it would become a lot more difficult for voters to pick Mahomes over Rivers. In fact, the last time a QB won MVP without winning his division was Peyton Manning in 2008. The, “if not now, then win?” effect would neutralize one of Brees’ biggest advantages. Should the Chargers win the AFC West, Rivers would not have to up his game much at all to post near-identical stats on the season as Brees and ride a recency bias to a blindside MVP win.

Todd Gurley, RB Saint Louis Rams

Todd Gurley suffers from the same burden that most of these candidates. His offense is so good, that it would still be great with an average player at his position, which is why I see his campaign is doomed. Although nearly everyone would agree that Gurley is a better RB than Goff is a QB, I just can’t see a running back winning MVP in today’s NFL while a part of such a good team. Gurley's numbers He’s first in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards from scrimmage this season. However, his numbers aren’t really any better from last season and he still lost to the best QB in the league in 2017. Gurley’s numbers are still about on par for the best RB in the league any given season, meanwhile the bar has been raised for QBs by this year’s performances. There is a running back, however; that I think really has posted numbers that could earn him the MVP should the quarterbacks fall apart.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB Dallas Cowboys At a quick glance, Elliott has been nearly as good as Gurley. He’s rushed for 26 less yards and produced 77 less yards from scrimmage as Gurley. It’s quite astonishing to me that he hasn’t received more nominations from the media, especially since he wears a star on his helmet. Elliott's yards per touch numbers are worse, but that’s where I believe his value lies. The one thing Elliott has that Gurley doesn’t, is that his team needs him, and needs him badly. The Rams are a playoff team without Gurley, no doubt about it. The Cowboys were a laughing stock for half the season, and it’s widely believed that Dak needs Zeke to keep defenses honest if he is to have any success throwing the ball. Before the trade for Amari Cooper, he was the only threat on Dallas’ offense beside linemen. Accordingly, Zeke has been trusted with seven more carries and receptions than Gurley this season. The Cowboys are 7-5 and will probably make the playoffs, with the biggest offensive contribution coming from their RB. The last RB to win the MVP was of course Adrian Peterson who accounted for 41.6% of the Vikings’ yards from scrimmage that season. Elliott hasn’t been nearly that good, but he has produced 37.0% of the Cowboys’ total offense. Compare that to Gurley, who has only accounted for 30.3% of the Rams’ total yardage. Zeke is just objectively more important to his team, and if the quarterbacks this year were to collectively blow it down the stretch, Elliot deserves serious MVP consideration. This Cowboys team is red-hot and needs Zeke like Jerry Jones needs media attention. I’m not sure how his season isn’t more publicized. He ticks all of the boxes.

The stats used in this article all come from the following sourcespro-football-refernce.comfootballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

At the outset of this season, I set my personal expectation for Michigan Basketball to be pretty modest. I expected roughly a top four NCAA Tournament seed and a sweet 16 appearance. I did not, however, seriously expect the Wolverines to be a national title contender. And if I had, I would not have expected it to be revealed in early December. After all, at this time last season, the eventual national runner-up Wolverines were languishing in uncertainty after losing to a not-very-good LSU team in Maui and choking a game away against Ohio State.

Yet defying expectations, Michigan basketball is currently 9-0 and #5 in the country and playing about as good as any team out there. They’ve already blown out blueblood programs like North Carolina and Villanova and dispatched conference foes Purdue and Northwestern. Their red hot success has already acquired recognition from national outlets, such as The Ringer, SB Nation, CBS Sports, and ESPN. It seems like everyone is noticing how good this team currently is, which brings us to the central question: just how good can this team be and are they a national title… favorite?

How good the team is currently

Pretty darn good.

Oh you want details?

Details:

They are currently the KenPom #4 team, but since we’re still just over a month into the season, some of those numbers are accounting for preseason, when Michigan was expected to be a fringe top 25 team and many of the other elite teams were not. Removing those preseason factors on BartTorvik.com’s T-Rank (a very similar metric) reveals Michigan to be the best team in the country, just narrowly ahead of Duke. Most notably, Michigan’s defense is suffocating, ranking #1 in KenPom for the whole season, as well as #1 in the T-Rank minus preseason expectations. Not just that, but Michigan’s defense is so much better than its peers: in both of those two metrics, the nation’s #2 defense is closer to #7 than to #1 Michigan. In the first nine games played, Michigan has gone up against two of the nation’s top ten offenses, Purdue and North Carolina, and held both to under a point per possession, as well as under 70 points total.

The defining characteristics of Michigan’s defense are not allowing many three point attempts, not fouling, and sporting the nation’s top 2 point field goal defense. It starts with point guard Zavier Simpson, who is unquestionably the nation’s best defensive point guard. He is the type of player who can just wipe whoever he’s guarding right off the map. He did it to Jalen Brunson in the national title game and Cassius Winston last year, and to Carsen Edwards and Coby White this year. There’s also Charles Matthews, an elite perimeter defender, and Jon Teske, a game-altering rim protector. Even Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis, who were not supposed to be good defensively, have been above-average on that end. Add it up and you have a defense that is currently the best, but has the chance to be one of the best in modern college history.

But outside the defense, the offense isn’t anything to complain about. While it’s not the break-neck unit of Michigan teams past, it is still either top 20 (KP) or top 30 (T-R), depending on which metric you use. Additionally, there’s decent evidence that two grizzly offensive games to start the season against cupcake opponents (Norfolk St. and Holy Cross) are weighing the numbers down, as since that point, Michigan’s adjusted offense has been top 10, to go with the still impenetrable defense. The team has good three point shooters (Poole, Brazdeikis, Brooks, and Livers), a deadly pick-and-roll combo (Simpson and Teske), and overall, just guys who know how to get buckets in big moments, whether it’s Charles Matthews’s silky turn-around jumpers, Jordan Poole’s tenacious drives, or Brazdeikis’s fearless playing style. The ability to get big shots helped stem the tide even as Tuesday’s game against Northwestern seemed to be slipping away.

Finally, there’s just the general impressiveness factor. Michigan isn’t just beating teams: by and large, they’re annihilating them. Despite playing a schedule that includes four “Quadrant 1” games, Michigan has won all nine games but one by at least 17 points, with an average margin of victory for the season of 19.2 points. They’ve led by at least 15 points at one juncture in every single game they’ve played so far.

Can they get better?

Sure. The voice of one of your elementary school teachers rattles in your head as you hear me say “there’s always room for improvement”. When I say that I mostly mean offensively, because the way the defense is right now is more than enough to win a national championship and it feels unrealistic to expect much improvement. Offensively there is room for growth. The game with Northwestern showcased potential issues that arise if teams stop guarding the offensively limited Zavier Simpson altogether. The Wolverines will have to find a solution to that and integrating Isaiah Livers into the offense more actively is something to look into.

The other area is depth. Last year’s Michigan team was pretty deep, often playing 9 guys in the rotation in a given game. This year’s team plays a tight seven. That’s been okay because the starting lineup gels so well together and is playing at such a high level that Michigan has been able to obliterate opponents with just that group alone. Furthermore because Michigan doesn’t foul, it allows them to avoid situations where they need to use more guys. But it won’t be enough as the season goes on, since the occasional foul-happy game will happen (like say the Northwestern affair) and because injuries are natural. Michigan’s bench currently consists of Brooks and Livers, as well as backup C Austin Davis and a whole bunch of freshmen. Livers and Brooks are fine but Davis’s appearances have been ghastly and have increased the load on Teske’s shoulders. At the bare minimum, the Wolverines need another big man to develop unless Davis magically turns it around, and another guard wouldn’t be bad. The most obvious options for those roles are freshmen Brandon Johns (PF) and David DeJulius (PG). Both of whom were pretty sought after recruits and haven’t looked bad in the little time we’ve seen of them. It is imperative for Michigan to use this next month of easier games (more on that in a minute) to bring those guys up to speed.

What the future holds and the national picture

Amazingly, the Wolverines are nearly certain to make it to January undefeated and have a very good chance to get to Martin Luther King weekend still unscathed. That’s because Michigan closes out December with four games against teams they have >96% win probabilities against, followed by an early January Big Ten slate that gives Michigan >80% win probability against every team they see until they head to Wisconsin on Jan. 19. If they made it to Wisconsin undefeated, they would be 17-0 and undoubtedly top three in the nation. The Big Ten is a much stronger conference in 2018-19 than it was the last few years and winning it is going to require beating some solid teams on the road in hostile environments. Torvik currently projects Michigan to finish 16-4 in the Big Ten (winning it by a solid three games) and thus 27-4 overall. Right now that feels like a pretty reasonable projection for how the regular season will play out. If that’s the case, then the Maize and Blue would have a very good chance of securing the program’s first #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 1993 and would instantly become a favorite to reach the Final Four.

But in terms of a national picture, where does this team stack up alongside some of the other national names? Right now with the way Michigan is playing, they have as good of a case for national #1 as anybody. Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Virginia seem to be the big four teams alongside Michigan making up the nation’s top tier, but no one is demolishing teams like the Wolverines are. This Michigan team is already special, but they have a very real chance to end March Madness as the last team standing.

The date was October 26 and the Detroit Red Wings were 1-7-2, dead last in the NHL. At that point in the very young NHL season, things were about going as expected for the boys in the winged wheel. After finishing in the bottom five a year ago and being projected to be the worst team in the NHL, a dreadful start to the season was not unusual. Since then, however, things have taken a strange turn, with the Red Wings going 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. So as I did back in June when the Detroit Tigers had an odd start to their season before reverting to the mean, I’m here to examine how things have gotten to this point, and what to expect going forward.

What’s going well for the Wings?

There have been three important storylines for this Detroit squad, but all fall under the overarching theme of youth. While the Red Wings have been dogged in the past (rightfully so) for being a team of aging vets, this year’s team has seen a transfer of power towards younger players, with 5 of the top 8 scorers on the team being age 24 or younger. The first storyline has been the continued improvement of Dylan Larkin. Hopefully in a few weeks I’ll have a full Dylan Larkin appreciation post but I can paraphrase how good he’s been. Larkin has 22 points in 26 games, but most importantly, he has 10 goals, which is significant given he had just 16 a year ago (16 goals and 47 assists in 2017-18 for Larkin). Larkin is affecting every game he plays in in far more ways than what can show up on the stat-sheet. Most indicative of his transformation is the way he’s driving possession like never before. Larkin’s corsi for % (indicates what percent of the game your team has the puck when you’re on the ice) is a career high 54%, compared to a 50.5% a year ago. More astonishing is that relative to his team: Larkin’s corsi relative is an incredible 10.1%, which ranks in the top 5 in the NHL among centers who have played at least 15 games. Larkin has become a leader, a goal scorer, a distributor, and a guy who plays both ends well. At just 22 years old, Larkin is now Detroit’s most indispensible player and the cornerstone of their rebuild, with a real chance to become a star in this league.

But beyond Larkin, the Red Wings have seen something even more important occur: the emergence of Dennis Cholowski. As I wrote about in the summer, the Red Wings had a lot of defensive prospects, but no one who looked like an impact player. Now, they appear to have someone who has a shot to be that. Their 2016 first round pick, Cholowski was considered a reach at the time but has since proven to be more promising than expected. At just 20 years old, Cholowski is already logging nearly 20 minutes a night and looks like one of the Red Wings’ top two defensemen already. With 4 goals and 8 assists in 24 games, Cholowski has drawn praise from local and national outlets alike. He’s got a long way to go in his development process before we can crown him a defensive centerpiece, but at long last, there’s a glimmer of hope on the Red Wings’ blue line.

The third factor that’s been a pleasure to watch is Andreas Athanasiou. Arguably the most vexing player on the Red Wings’ roster, AA is a player loaded with skill and speed, yet had his NHL career defined as being something of a conundrum. In his two NHL seasons with at least 64 games played, he never had more than 33 points nor 18 goals in a season. This season in just 22 games, he’s already got 11 goals and 5 assists for 16 points, putting him on pace for 36 goals and 53 points. While he’ll most definitely cool off, he’s flashing a more complete and polished side to his game that we’ve never seen before and quite frankly, it is tantalizing. If he could simply hit 25 goals this year, he would affirm himself as a central forward in the Detroit rebuilding plan, rather than his previous fringe status. Additionally, he’s shaken some of the notions about himself as simply an offensive cherry-picker, as his Corsi Relative is 2.2%. Besides Athanasiou, the Wings have gotten solid offensive showings from some of their other younger forwards, as Anthony Mantha continues to be Johan Franzen reincarnate, on pace for 30 goals but in the most frustratingly streaky of fashions, and Tyler Bertuzzi continues to be a pleasant surprise, with 9 goals and 7 assists in 26 games. I suppose I should also shout out Jimmy Howard, who is fulfilling the Sparky Anderson Contract Year Prophecy by posting one of the best save percentages of his career and giving the Wings a healthy trade chip, and the same can be said for Gustav Nyquist, who, while not scoring many goals, has been a tremendous playmaker and is racking up the assists.

What to expect going forward

No matter how much fun this mini-run has been, we can’t expect it to last. By account of most stats besides record, the Wings are not a good team. They’re 21st in goals scored per game and 25th in goals allowed per game. They don’t possess the puck much and a number of the wins on this streak of games have come in overtime or shootouts, which suggest an element of luck which is not replicable going forward. However, even if the team cools off in wins and losses, that doesn’t mean there won’t continue to be valuable growth. Seeing how Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi, Cholowski, and rookie Michael Rasmussen play going forward is infinitely more important than whatever the team’s record may be.

Indeed, a best case scenario for the Red Wings is probably one where they continue to get good results from the younger players but the overall team record sags, keeping them close enough to the bottom that they can get a high draft pick in June and cash in for another elite talent. Despite this string of good games, Detroit is still only 6 points from last in the NHL and a correction to the mean could quickly deposit them back into the bottom-five cellar, the type of spot you want to be in to score a top draft pick.

Other things to watch in the near future is whether we see Filip Zadina, the Red Wings’ #1 prospect and the 6th overall pick in June’s draft, who was considered one of three best talents in that draft. The Red Wings have stashed Zadina in Grand Rapids, where he’s still learning the ropes of professional hockey. I wouldn’t expect to see much of Zadina this year, but in a post trade-deadline world where a spot opens up on the NHL roster, we could see a call-up. The same can be said for defenseman Filip Hronek, who played 6 games with Detroit at the start of the year before returning to Grand Rapids. Having just turned 21, there’s no rush to get Hronek back to Detroit, but if he continues to light up the AHL (13 points in 15 games), it’ll be awfully hard not to give him a longer look this season. Again, this is also contingent on trade deadline possibilities.

Speaking of which, the trade deadline will be another key factor to watch in the near future. Even though the team has been hot as of late, GM Ken Holland and the front office have not changed their outlook on the season according to sources, and remain very comfortable with the possibility of trading veterans at the deadline. The most prominent and likely name to go is Jimmy Howard. In the last year of his contract, Howard has been the starter (or co-starter) with the Red Wings for 10 seasons, and it will be hard to see Howard go. However, this is a rebuilding project and Howard is an asset given the way he’s been playing. While he is a 34 year-old rental, there are already several suitors mentioned, most notably the St. Louis Blues. The Red Wings are rumored to be holding out to try and get a first-round pick for Howard, which would be a coup quite frankly. There is also the reality that they may pull the trigger in the next few weeks, since you can never know how much longer Howard can keep up the stellar level of play he’s been at this season. Anything higher than a 3rd round pick or a solid prospect would be a good return for a veteran piece like Howard.

Gustav Nyquist is also likely to go, and while he won’t fetch as much as Tomas Tatar did a year ago, the Red Wings can certainly get a pick or two for him. Beyond those two, Mike Green is one to watch. Green was going to be dealt a year ago but his back injuries prevented him from leaving town and Detroit re-signed him in the offseason. He’s not a rental this year, but that could theoretically improve his value if someone really wanted him. He’s having a good offensive season and has been steady enough for a trade to make sense. Thomas Vanek will be on the trading block as well, but I’m not sure how much he could really fetch and whether the Red Wings would be willing to do that.

All in all, the season has largely been going according to plan, or at least how Red Wings fans hoped. There’s been continued growth in the young core and the team has been competitive, yet they’re also close enough to the bottom of the league to put them in a good spot for June. I don’t expect this run to last much longer, but the bigger storylines of this season could persist. And that is welcome news to Red Wings fans.

Last weekend, Michigan Hockey faced off with one of their Big Ten rivals, the Wisconsin Badgers. As the friday game started it was clear that this was not going to be an easy win for either team. Both teams were evenly matched in skill, size and agility, yet Michigan dominated the first period in shots. This was not problem for the Badgers though, since they had their star goalie in net, Jack Berry. Berry had some crucial saves for the Badgers in the first period, not letting Michigan score at all. The score remained 0-0, until Wisconsin forward, Tarek Baker, scored off a rebound given up by Michigan goaltender, Hayden Lavigne, leading the Badgers to have a one goal advantage. Finally during the third period, Adam Winborg, gets his first goal of the season to tie the score 1-1. The third period ended in a tie calling for the first overtime of the season at Yost. The five minute overtime started with the same intensity as the first period but at the end of the “fourth period” both teams still remained tied. As the fifth period, three-on-three began, it was Michigan’s three star players out on the ice that lead to a quick goal by Josh Norris with the assist from Quinn Hughes. After two overtimes, Michigan Hockey took home the win against the Badgers and got ready to play them again the next night.Saturday night at Yost started with Michigan’s top line on the ice. They now had their starting forward, Jake Slaker, who was injured on Friday night and had not dressed for the game. Wisconsin had their back up goalie, Daniel Lebedeef, starting in net. The first period was dominated by Wisconsin, who got the goal off of Michigan’s first penalty. Defenseman, Ty Emberson, got the goal in the powerplay for the Badgers. With the second period underway, Wisconsin continued off of their first-period momentum and scored another goal, from a blue-line slap shot by Jack Gorniak. With the score 2-0 Wisconsin, Jack Becker got the quick rebound off Lebedeef, making the score 2-1 with Michigan trailing into the third. With the third period underway, Michigan got a lucky breakaway and scored another goal tying the score at 2-2. This goal was scored by Luke Morgan, his first of his career here with the Wolverines. As the buzzer went off to signal the end of the third period, the game was tied yet again. As the first overtime started, both teams had shots on net but both Lavigne and Lebedeef were ready to compete. This caused the two teams to enter double over time for the second night in a row. However, the Hughes, Lockwood, and Norris line could not do what the did the night before and were unable to score a quick goal in the three-v-three. Both teams were unable to score in the fifth period overtime causing this game to enter a third and final overtime, a shootout, with sudden death elimination. Both Hughes and Lockwood shot for Michigan but were unable to secure the overtime win. The Badger’s third shooter, Max Zimmer, had the hard top-shelf slapshot goal, to lead to the triple overtime win. However, in college hockey when a game enters triple overtime, the match will go on both teams records as a tie, but the winner of the shootout gets the extra point for the Big Ten. The Wolverines remain number 14 in the USA college hockey polls. Overall, Michigan hockey played well and will continue to move forward as they play their brother-rival, Michigan State this upcoming weekend. Written by Vanessa Litchard

​As the Michigan Wolverines warmed up to play the North Carolina Tar Heels, in Ann Arbor on Wednesday night, they were haunted by the memory of what happened last year in Chapel Hill. A devastating 86-71 loss in which the Wolverines got out played, both offensively and defensively. This year with a top ranked defense and their leading scorer Ignas (Iggy) Brazdeikis, only a freshman, this team is a fair matchup against the Tar Heels’ fast offense. Last night Crisler Center was packed to the brim with students and fans filling the seats to watch the Michigan Basketball team go on a “Revenge Tour” of their own. The Wolverines got off to a rough start leaving an uneasy feeling within Crisler. Trailing North Carolina 11-21 halfway through the first half, the team stepped up the intensity and got into their groove. Brazdeikis took it upon himself to minimize their deficit with 6 points in less than 30 seconds.As the first half was wrapping up, the crowd experienced a very familiar sight. The Michigan defense forced a UNC turnover in which sophomore guard Jordan Poole got the ball. With 2 seconds left on the clock he sunk a 3 pointer. His famous buzzer beater shot last year in the March Madness tournament against Houston flashed across every fan’s mind as the crowd roared out of their seats. The Wolverines ended the half leading 39-37. Despite the lead, the team was falling short shooting free throws, shooting only 40% in the first half compared to UNC’s first half 100%. Although a small aspect of the game, increasing that percentage could make a big difference in future games.During the second half, a new team stepped out of the locker room. A flashy display of scoring got the fans off their seats and loud. With Iggy and Poole shooting two three-pointers in the first three minutes the tide seemed to pull toward the Wolverines. A dunk by Jon Teske increased Michigan’s lead to over 10 points, which was all the team needed to get the ball rolling. They strengthened their defense, holding the Tar Heels to 30 points lower than their points per game average, although the defense did allow more points than normal by their standards.Key players of the game were Iggy Brazdeikis with 24 points, and Charles Matthews with 21 points, scoring a combined 45 points. They also led defensive rebounds with 5 each and while Matthews racked up 2 offensive rebounds. The part they played in their 84-67 win last night gives the team momentum going into their game against the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday at Crisler Center. With this win bumping their record to a perfect 7-0 they are ranked 1st in the Big Ten after Ohio State and Michigan State’s losses last night.

This week is the Big Ten-ACC Challenge in basketball, which pits the 14 Big Ten teams against the 14 ACC teams to see which conference wins more games. It's a major barometer of which teams are good and which teams are not and also provides March contenders with an opportunity to beef up their tournament resume early in the season. Without any ado, let's dive right in, dividing the games into tiers based on intrigue.

Tier 1: The Big One

North Carolina at Michigan, 9:30 pm WednesdayThis is the only game that features two top 10 KenPom teams, let alone two top 7 KenPom teams. By nature of the site that I’m writing this for, most of the readers are probably well-aware of Michigan. The Wolverines are off to a tremendous- and uncharacteristically good- start for a John Beilein team, opening the year 6-0, beating every team by at least 19 points, including a systematic dismantling of Providence (#60 KenPom) and a blowout of #15 Villanova on the road. They have the nation’s #1 defense, which will set up a fascinating matchup when North Carolina, the nation’s #3 offense, comes to town. The Tar Heels are 6-1 and have scored at least 90 points in all but one of their games. They are led by returning seniors Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye, as well as top tier freshmen recruits Nassir Little and Coby White. This is the marquee matchup of the Big Ten-ACC challenge and will be a huge W for the March resume of whoever emerges victorious.

Tier 2: Other good matchups

Nebraska at Clemson, 7 pm MondayA matchup of two similar teams brings plenty of intrigue as 5-1 Nebraska visits 5-1 Clemson. Nebraska is a team looking to make it back to the NCAA Tournament after having previously made it in 2014 and most of all, are looking to win their first NCAA Tournament game in program history. Nebrasketball is led by three seniors, all of whom are Jrs., ironically: James Palmer Jr., Glynn Watson Jr., and Isaac Copeland Jr.. The very talented Isaiah Roby is also a factor for the 5-1 Huskers, who beat Seton Hall at home and dropped a game against a very good Texas Tech squad at a neutral site. Clemson on the other hand was a Sweet 16 team a year ago and they currently check in at KenPom #24, with no real quality wins and a close loss to Creighton. This would be a prime opportunity for the Big Ten to steal a game and for Nebraska to prove they have what it takes to be a Big Ten player.

North Carolina St. at Wisconsin, 9 pm Tuesday Wisconsin missed the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time in ages but they appear to be back on the right track in 2018-19. The Badgers beat Oklahoma and Stanford as part of their non-conference tournament before losing narrowly to Virginia. They are led by 17th year senior Ethan Happ, who is the best post player in the conference, and have also seen considerable growth from D’Mtrik Trice, as well as the return of Brad Davison. Their stellar start to the year have slingshot the Badgers into the KenPom #12 position and they host KenPom #35 at the Kohl Center on Tuesday. The Wolfpack are 6-0 on the year and have played literally no one, with their best win being over KenPom #175 Mercer (!!!!). Half of their opponents so far are in the bottom 20 of KenPom teams nationally. Basically, we have no idea how good this NC St. team is, which is why this game is worth watching.

Indiana at Duke, 9:30 pm TuesdayThis is a game that features four of the nation’s top seven recruits from the most recent class. Duke has three of them: RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson, while Indiana has Romeo Langford. Duke has quickly established themselves as one of the nation’s best teams, beating up Kentucky but also losing to a very good Gonzaga team in Maui. They are #2 in KP offense and #8 in KP defense for an overall ranking of #1. Indiana is KenPom 22, having destroyed a solid Marquette team at home and dropped a close one on the road to a mediocre Arkansas team. The Hoosiers are led by Langford, who is shooting over 50% from the field despite not being much of a three point threat and 6’8” senior Juwan Morgan has been blazing hot, averaging over 17 points per game on 9 of 15 from three and 72% from the field. Because this game is in Durham, I would expect Duke to win pretty easily, but if Indiana can just play it close for a half, that’s a good sign for both them and the Big Ten overall.

Syracuse at Ohio State, 7:15 pm WednesdayThis is an interesting matchup of a pair of teams that are solid but not great. Ohio State has had a better than expected start to the year, beating a pretty solid Creighton team on the road in the Gavitt Games and besting Cincinnati at home. Syracuse on the other hand has had a bit of a disappointing start to the year, being ranked in the top 15 before losing to both Connecticut and Oregon. The Orange were a sweet sixteen team a year ago (albeit a bad one at that), led by star guard Tyus Battle and the trademark Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone, while Ohio State has had to weather the losses of Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate by getting improvement from Kaleb Wesson and solid play from a few freshmen early on. This game is another test to see if Syracuse was simply overrated or if we need to temper expectations on the Buckeyes.

Purdue at FSU, 9:15 pm WednesdayPurdue lost a lot of talent off of last year’s squad, including four of five starters. However, they did bring back the league’s best player: Carsen Edwards. The Boilermaker point guard is having a sensational start to the year, averaging over 25 points per game, including 41% from three and 92% from the free throw line. His supporting cast isn’t as strong as last year, with Matt Haarms attempting to be the new Very Tall Foreign Blonde Dude, the role Isaac Haas held last year, though he isn’t the same offensive threat in the post that Haas was. Ryan Cline has emerged as the number two scoring option for Purdue on the perimeter, but it’s really the Edwards show. Purdue is 5-1 to start the year, with no good wins but one close loss to a pretty good Virginia Tech team and they check in at #13 in KenPom. Florida State returns after making the Elite Eight a year ago and are pretty much the same team: a bunch of hyper athletic dudes who are not that well coached. However, they’ve started the year 5-1, and are #14 in KenPom. This should be a good measuring stick for both teams.

Tier 3: Upset potential

Virginia Tech at Penn St, 7:00 pm TuesdayBuzz Williams has helped to rebuild Virginia Tech and has the Hokies in KenPom top 16 at a sterling 5-0 record. VT has three players averaging over 15 points per game and they have the nation’s #7 offense, led by sophomore guard Nickeil Walker-Alexander. The Hokies already have one win over a Big Ten team (Purdue) and are looking to procure another when they travel to State College on Tuesday. Penn St. has had to stomach the loss of star guard Tony Carr but have made up for it thanks to a monster start to the year by Lamar Stevens, averaging over 24 points per game and running the Nittany Lions as a one-man show. Despite checking in at KenPom #38, Penn St. does not appear to be a good team, having lost to DePaul and Bradley, but the Bryce Jordan Center is never an easy place to play.

Michigan St. at Louisville, 7:30 pm Tuesday Michigan St. is off to a strong start to the year, ranking in the top 10 and having just won their non-conference tournament in Las Vegas. The Spartans have one loss, to Kansas, but seem to be about what we expected. Point guard Cassius Winston is still the playmaker, Nick Ward is still a good post player, but a point of surprise has been Joshua Langford, who has discovered how to shoot from three. The Spartans head to Louisville Tuesday to take on the KenPom #59 Cardinals, who are 3-2. This is a game MSU should win, perhaps easily, but it’s never easy to go on the road in a hostile environment.

Virginia at Maryland, 7:30 pm WednesdayUVA is the same team they’ve always been under coach Tony Bennett: a defensive powerhouse that’s ready to dominate the regular season and tank in the NCAA Tournament (sorry UVA fans). The Cavaliers are #3 in KP nationally with the nation’s #2 defense, sporting a sterling 6-0 record. With a win over Wisconsin, Virginia seems to be for real and they return DeAndre Hunter and Ty Jerome off of last year’s ACC Championship team. Maryland is trying to return to the NCAA Tournament off the backs of returners Bruno Fernando and Anthony Cowan, as well as five-star freshman PF Jalen Smith. The Terps are 6-0 but haven’t really played anyone, so an upset over Virginia in this border state “rivalry” could be an opportunity to show the Big Ten that they are a contender.

Tier 4: Do Not Watch These Games

Georgia Tech at Northwestern

Illinois at Notre Dame

Rutgers at Miami

Minnesota at Boston College

Pittsburgh at Iowa

This is mostly the bottom tier Big Ten against the bottom tier ACC, with the exception of Pitt-Iowa, which is a very bad ACC team against a solid Big Ten team. Watching these games is a waste of your time, so don’t do it.

Two fanbases wait 365 days for this. Two states defined by disdain for each other wait 365 days for this. A rivalry rooted in a 19th century war and that flourished under a Ten Year War defined by legendary coaching personas. In modern times, the Saturday after Thanksgiving is The Game. The only game that matters: Michigan and Ohio State.

---The Game is always big, but this one feels bigger. At least, from Michigan’s perspective. For most of my life, The Game was nothing more than a joke of a big game. From the time I was 7 until I was 16, it was two very mismatched teams, teams that didn’t belong on the same field as the other. In 9 of those instances, it was a good-to-great Ohio State team with a pathetic Michigan team and in one of those instances (2011), it was the other way around. While older Michigan fans told me it was a big deal, it was hard to take them seriously. The Wolverines had little chance.

But with Jim Harbaugh’s return to Ann Arbor came a sense of meaning to The Game again. In 2015, a Michigan team feeling new life was sternly reminded just how far they still had to come against a supremely talented yet underachieving Ohio State team in a brutal 42-13 beatdown. In 2016, the two teams were starkly different, yet nearly even in skill: a Buckeye team with almost entirely new starters versus a Wolverine squad that was almost entirely composed of seniors. The result was the closest you could possibly get to a tie in modern college football: a double OT thriller decided by literal inches, one that Ohio State was on the right end of. 2017 felt like a reversion to the style of game I grew up with during the lead up, as OSU appeared to be vastly better on paper but a near-perfect Michigan game-plan produced an incredibly tight game until the final moments. But again, Ohio State was on the right end of it.

So that’s where we stand entering November 24, 2018. Michigan, snakebitten over the last three years, is eager to avenge the past losses and finally exorcise The Narrative™ about Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. In August, this year’s edition of The Game felt like a Must Win. Not that it had much basis in reality given that OSU appeared to be loaded with talent and the only true competitor to Alabama for the national crown, but to be a successful season, it felt like Michigan had to find some way to beat Ohio State. Since then, the 2018 version of The Game has become a Should Win. Not just a Must Win anymore. Indeed, the course of this year’s season has revealed this Michigan team to appear to be Harbaugh’s best since coming home to his alma mater, while the Buckeyes have been revealed to be the weakest OSU team since Urban Meyer got the program up and running (you can argue 2012 was a bit worse). Based on everything from old fashioned metrics to advanced metrics to simply their body of work across the preceding 11 games, Michigan is a clear cut higher than Ohio State. It’s why they’re favored by 4.5 points despite being the road team. It’s simply a Should Win game. Not a coin flip. A Should Win. And to every Michigan fan who has endured the last decade, that thought is terrifying.

--Now for real game analysis:

Ohio State Defense Ohio State’s defense has been much maligned, and for good reason. They’re surrendering an average of 398.6 yards per game and if you take out a major outlier against Rutgers (just 134 yards against in that one), the average balloons to 425 ypg allowed. This includes ugly 450+ yard gashings against TCU, Penn St., Nebraska, and most recently, Maryland. Per S&P+, they are the 38th best defense (out of 130), which feels a bit generous, but it is still the worst Buckeye defense of the Urban Meyer era. Their defensive line is pretty good, though the loss of star Nick Bosa to a season-ending groin injury was significant, with sophomore DE Chase Young and junior DT Dre’Mont Jones leading the way. But if you get beyond the first level, things get ugly, with a linebacking corps that’s been described by OSU fans as the worst in decades and a weak secondary. Their back seven issues have resulted in the Buckeye defense being the 8th worst in the country at giving up explosive plays (IsoPPP+). Michigan is not much of a big play offense given Harbaugh’s methodical style, but they will gladly take whatever the OSU defense gives them.

Ohio State Offense This is the strength-on-strength side of things, as it pits the #2 S&P+ defense against the #5 S&P+ offense. Ohio State’s offense is a little different in past years because they have a new QB, Dwayne Haskins. While Haskins is a far better passer than JT Barrett ever was, he is also not nearly the same caliber of running threat that Barrett posed to opposing defenses. Prior to last week, Haskins was running only 3 or 4 times a game compared to Barrett’s 15 to 20. Haskins’ insertion into the offense has brought upsides and downsides: his prolific arm has shattered school records and opened up the passing attack like never before under Meyer, but the running game has sagged significantly. Haskins’ season line is a sterling 69.3% completion and 36 TD to 7 INT, but the running game has struggled against elite defenses. Penn State (#12 S&P+ defense) and Michigan State (#4 S&P+ defense) are the two best units OSU has faced and in those games they had 3.2 and 2.7 yards per rush, respectively. Ohio State has a ton of receivers with no single standout, just a bunch of dudes. KJ Hill, Terry McLaurin, Johnnie Dixon, Austin Mack, and Binjimen Victor all have 250+ receiving yards on the year from the wideout spot, while Parris Campbell has 711 yards from the scat-back position as the New Curtis Samuel. At running back, JK Dobbins and Mike Weber share carries nearly equally, with Dobbins more of a spread type while Weber is the more conventional back. Each guy has over 15 receptions as well, though Dobbins is the more potent receiving threat. Last week against Maryland, Ohio State started to take some of the old JT Barrett QB read option plays out of the shed, presumably sets they were saving for The Game against Michigan but had to use them to stave off an upset against the Terps. Haskins had 15 rushes in that game, far more than any other game this season, but only for a total of 59 yards. His athleticism is not on the same level as Barrett’s but the deception was useful on the goal line, as Haskins got 3 TD’s. Maryland seemed a bit caught off guard, which was the downside of having to use those plays a week earlier than intended. Lastly, backup QB Tate Martell comes in for a few plays a game. While he has 23 completions on the year, in real games, Martell is pretty much only in as a rusher. The dual threat QB is pretty effective as a runner but he’s a bit of a one-trick pony.

Keys to the game for Michigan:

Don’t turn it over: It’s generally a good rule to live by in sports but even more so when you’re the better team. Inferior teams win games when they are handed golden opportunities. Michigan fans can think back just two years to how important this is, when three Wilton Speight turnovers killed the team in regulation and sent the game to OT

Red zone conversion: Michigan is gonna gain a bunch of yards in this game. The way that the Buckeyes win this game is if they hold the Wolverines to field goals rather than touchdowns. Last week’s performance of 6 field goals on 8 red zone trips against Indiana is not going to cut it against OSU. When Michigan gets into the red zone, they need touchdowns.

QB Contain: The one thing that has hurt Michigan’s defense consistently over Don Brown’s tenure is when mobile QB’s escape the pocket. JT Barrett did that a few too many times versus the Wolverines over the years and while Haskins is no Barrett, he’s also not Peyton Manning. If the pocket cleanly collapses and no one’s open, Haskins will run it. Peyton Ramsey had a handful of frustrating scrambles a week ago against the Michigan defense. The defensive line needs to know to enclose the pocket around Haskins, even if it means laying off the aggressive pass rush slightly.

---The real reason this game feels so big is that it feels like a crossroads of sorts. On one hand, you have Michigan, a program that seems like it’s on the verge of breaking through at long last. The team has its goals in front of them: two wins and the Wolverines will be playing in the College Football Playoff in all likelihood. If Michigan wins these next two weeks (and they would be extremely heavy favorites over Northwestern next week), all the narratives, from Harbaugh Can’t Win Big Games to Never Finished Higher Than Third in the Big Ten East, go away once and for all. Michigan will have arrived and finally returned to the national stage. Combine that with the high probability that a Michigan CFP appearance is likely coupled with a strong finish to an already stellar recruiting class (getting a commitment from 5* DE Zach Harrison would be the potential crown jewel), and it feels like Michigan is so close to finally achieving the salvation that Jim Harbaugh was brought here to deliver: a true return to national contention, with The Game being the most important hurdle left.

However, if Michigan doesn’t win this one, it feels like the season has all been for naught in some ways. The same old same old feeling will rein and it will seem like Michigan is farther away than ever. The Narrative™ will sound louder than ever as well. Furthermore, given all that I have said about Ohio State and their disappointing season, a matchup of Harbaugh’s best Michigan team versus arguably Meyer’s worst should be a win for the Wolverines. Perhaps easily. As a result, if Michigan cannot win, it will create a feeling of helplessness, a “if not now, when?” feeling. If this season was a make-it-or-break-it season for Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan, then saturday’s game is the defining moment of his time in Ann Arbor as the head coach, win or lose.

On the flip side, Ohio State also feels like a program in flux. With Urban Meyer leading the Buckeyes, it seemed as if OSU would be good forever. Now, it seems much more up in the air. First there’s the stuff that happened in the offseason. This space is not the place to relitigate the Zach Smith situation and I made my thoughts clear at the time, that Meyer’s actions were unremorseful, arrogant, and reprehensible and that he should have been dismissed. His punishment and the handling of it was a clown show, but it shouldn’t have seriously impacted this Ohio State team. Instead what has occurred is a season where a team that was pre-season #1 in S&P+ and crowned the most talented OSU ever has been by far the weakest since Meyer got the program up and running. They have slogged through 11 games, quite lucky to still be in the Big Ten race at all, and that loss was a total meltdown against an opponent that may not even make a bowl game.

Along the way, Meyer and his coaching staff have failed to develop blue chip recruits into a functional back-seven, spent most of the season trying to shove a round peg in a square hole on offense (Haskins vs Barrett), and watched the squad’s best player quit on the team and withdraw from school after suffering a season-ending injury. Mixed in all of this is the drama with Meyer’s increasingly distressing sideline presence, with the coach claiming that a brain cyst is impairing his ability to coach. This has left him on the sideline looking disoriented, stressed to the max, gaunt, and during a crucial time out last week when he should have been, you know, coaching, he was 10 feet from the team huddle, bent over with his hands on his knees looking like he’s about to pass out. All of this has raised questions about Meyer’s health and ability to coach going forward, with rumors circulating that the 54 year-old coach may retire in the offseason. The roller coaster of a season has left OSU’s 2019 recruiting class in trouble, ranked 12th nationally, which would be the worst of the Meyer era and a far cry from the last several seasons when they were reeling in top 2 classes. Notably, the class hasn’t picked up any significant commitments since the Zach Smith situation and if anything, recruits have slid away from them, including Zach Harrison, the nation’s top defensive end and #5 player in the country, who hails from just 20 minutes outside Columbus. In years past, Harrison would have been the easiest commitment possible for OSU but now Harrison looks probable to go to Michigan and should the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes, it seems highly likely that they would pluck the 5* talent out from Ohio State’s backyard.

--Final Thoughts:

My thoughts on this game were summed up well by MGoBlog’s Brian Cook on his podcast a few weeks back when he said that “I watch Ohio State and I start to feel really good about The Game and then I want to die”. For Michigan fans who have endured the 15 years of disaster against Ohio State, feeling good about The Game is almost inconceivable. Feeling like Michigan should win, is an even worse feeling. There has become a bit of a feeling among Michigan fans that everything that can go wrong will go wrong when you’re playing Ohio State. The last two matchups against the Buckeyes and the subsequent two years to ponder the pain, where Michigan came oh so close to pulling off the victory, has created a sort of aura where Wolverine diehards won’t believe they can beat OSU until the final seconds tick off the clock. And maybe that’s the way it should be.

But make no mistake: Michigan is the clear favorite in this one. Vegas and S&P+ are in an agreement on this: making a Michigan mid-single digit favorite, a line that would push double digits if the game were being played in the Big House. In games against their six common opponents, Michigan has won by an average of 27 points while Ohio State won by an average of 16.5 points. Returning to my previous thought however, this Michigan team does feel different. They have taken on adversity and overcome it, starting with the opening loss to Notre Dame. There were moments in the second half of the Michigan State game that felt like “here we go again”, yet the Wolverines won handily. They have overcome The Narrative™ several times already, though there is one last gargantuan obstacle to clear.

--

The Pick:

Despite all of the mystique around The Game, one brutal fact remains: the better team normally wins. In the S&P+ era (2005-present), only twice has the lower rated team won: 2006 and 2016, the two close OSU wins in the Horseshoe. But in those two games, Michigan and Ohio State were separated by an average of 1.25 in the advanced ratings system. This year, they are separated by 7.2 points. Those games were tossups with two closely matched teams. This game is not. I have pretty good faith that Michigan will have a good game-plan drawn up after watching last year’s affair. Harbaugh & Co. were ready for that and you have to think they will be more than ready for this. There’s also an element of hunger on this Michigan team, the idea of the revenge tour. The passion and the emotion with which Michigan has played against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State was unlike that previously seen under Jim Harbaugh. This Michigan team wants a win in this game more than anything else.

When you look at Michigan’s performances against similar teams to Ohio State and vice versa, you see a pretty stark comparison. Against defenses similar to OSU’s, Michigan’s offense has gained in the 430 yard range. Against defenses similar to Michigan’s, OSU’s offense has gained in the 350 range. The three best offenses Ohio State has played were Purdue, Nebraska, and Penn State, all of whom have units similar in rating to Michigan. OSU gave up an average of 493.6 yards in those three games. Michigan is yet to face an offense comparable to Ohio State’s, but Michigan held the Buckeyes to 280 yards and 350 yards in regulation in the last two meetings. Given all of this, Michigan should outgain OSU and probably significantly. As long as they protect the ball and convert in the Red Zone, as were the keys to the game, this should be a Michigan victory. Now put me in a coma until Saturday at 4 pm and tell me who won then.

By Eric Margolin

Before I prove this claim I want to put my cards on the table. I am a lifelong Saints fan. I do love Drew Brees for everything he has done for the city of New Orleans. No matter what Drew Brees does, I will always love him for bringing my favorite team a Super Bowl. However, my goal in this piece is to take an unbiased look at the case for Drew Brees. I will try not to let my undying love for Breesus affect my analysis.

Reason 1: Drew Brees has the highest total QBR/Passer Rating in the league

Through 10 games, Drew Brees has posted an 87.8 QBR. This is not only the highest in the league this year (Mahomes is second at 83.9), but it is the best QBR ever recorded. For those who don’t know, QBR is ESPN’s advanced statistic to measure the performance of quarterbacks, incorporating all of their contributions to winning. Brees also has the highest passer rating ever recorded (126.9). If Drew Brees has the highest rating of all time when it comes to winning football games and throwing a football, it follows that he is the most valuable player.

Reason 2: Drew Brees doesn’t lose his team games

Drew Brees has thrown 1 interception this entire season. Said interception came against the Vikings, one of the top defenses in the league. He was hit during the process of throwing the ball and barely over threw Michael Thomas. Mahomes has thrown 10 interceptions, tied for 4th most in the NFL. Moreover, Brees has completed 76.9% of his passes this season, best of all time. Mahomes has completed 67.5%. Brees has 1 fumble, Mahomes has 4. Brees has 7 less completions on 57 less attempts. Mahomes has taken 20 sacks, Brees has taken 9. In essence, Brees does less bad than Mahomes.

Reason 3: Drew Brees runs a better offense than Mahomes

The Saints have the best offense in the NFL. 1st in points per game, 3rd in yards per game, and 29th in giveaways. Compared to the Chiefs, (2nd, 4th, 30th respectively) the Saints offense is objectively better. The Saints played better defenses than the Chiefs (Saints: 5 top 15 defenses, 0 losses vs. 4 top 15 defenses, 1 loss). Both have an equal number of Pro-Bowl skill players (NO: Ingram, Kamara, Thomas. KC: Kelce, Hunt, Hill) and similarly ratedoffensive lines (NO: 10 KC:13). This is as close to ceteris paribus as you can get in the NFL, and Brees’ offense is statistically better.

Reason 4: Brees has never won and his window is closing

Of all the stats I can pull, this one hurts the most. Brees is 39 and the end is quickly approaching to his Hall of Fame career. Brees is the career leader in passing yards (total and per game), completions, and completion percentage, 2nd in career passing touchdowns, 3rd in career passer rating, and 9th in career adjusted yards per pass attempt. He is the only quarterback to have multiple 5,000 yard passing season, of which he has 6. Despite being top 10 in almost every positive quarterback category, Brees has never won an NFL MVP award. He lost all three times he was First team all-pro (lost to LaDainian Tomlinson and Peyton Manning twice), lost when he was named Super Bowl MVP (Peyton Manning), lost when he broke the record for passing yards in a season (Aaron Rodgers), lost when he broke the record for completion percentage in a season (Tom Brady), and lost when he tied the record for most TDs in a game (Cam Newton).

Patrick Mahomes will have many more opportunities to win MVPs and Super Bowls, but Brees has very few shots left. He is having one of the best years of his illustrious career and has been statistically better than Mahomes in almost every measurable category. Drew Brees is the NFL MVP this year, Mahomes can have it next year.

This Colt’s offense has looked outstanding this season with Frank Reich as Head Coach and Andrew Luck returning from his never-ending shoulder injury. Evidently, Reich was a significant factor in the Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl run last season, and the Colts are currently 9th in total offense this season. Last season they were 30th. Granted, this was without the play of their franchise quarterback, but the offense is more cohesive and fluent as a whole this season, and the addition of Eric has bolstered this offense in a huge way. He is having the best season of his somewhat criticized career, and is currently second in the league in receiving touchdowns with nine. They can run the ball effectively with Marlon Mack or Nyheim Hines and throw on you all game, and I haven’t even begun to talk about the defensive side of the ball.

Second round pick out of South Carolina State, Darius Leonard, has shown that he is a star in the making. Leonard leads the league in tackles, and plays with a chip on his shoulder. After being stiffed on a scholarship to Clemson and tweaking his hamstring at the combine, Leonard plays with a chip on his shoulder and it certainly shows. Keep an eye on this guy and Malik Hooker next time you watch this Colts defense.

The Colts get a tough match-up in Week 11 against a hot Titans team at home, but my prediction is they will win this game 27-24. Their schedule down the stretch is not difficult, facing the Dolphins, Jags, Texans, Cowboys, and Giants. Although their schedule is not as easy as the Texans, they are in a great position to win some games, and compete for the second wild card spot in the AFC.

I think rookie guard out of Notre Dame Quenton Nelson is fitting well in his NFL role:

After a huge win at home against the Packers in Week 11, the Seahawks are still well-behind the electric LA rams and sit at 5-5. It will be difficult for them to secure the second NFC Wild Card spot given the competitiveness of the NFC North, and the Panthers looking to firmly secure that first Wild Card sport. However, they face the Panthers in week 12 and they get the privilege of facing the Niners twice after that. I see this team finishing 9-7 or 10-6, and that will probably be good enough to secure a wild card spot given the Vikings and Packers screwing everything up with their 29-29 tie in Week 2.

Russell Wilson showed last night that him and Rodgers are the only guys in the NFL that can single handedly win their team’s games week in and week out. They make tight ends Nick Vannett and Robert Tonyan look like world class players. Rodgers perfectly threw a 54-yard bomb to Tonyan in the first quarter in the Packers loss. If Wilson continues to play at such a high level, this team has a chance against anyone. Wilson launched a perfectly thrown ball to Doug Baldwin in the second quarter and is constantly evading pressure. He’s amazing to watch amongst these high-powered offenses that get most of the attention.

Wilson can control the tempo on the offensive side of the ball, and despite this defense seemingly breaking apart in the offseason, they still have baller’s in KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner. Both Griffin brothers and Rookies Rasheem Green and Jacob Martin looked good as well.

Look for the Seahawks to win some tough games down the stretch, and ultimately make the playoffs. It’s what studs like Rodgers and Wilson do, and this year is not looking good for the Packers.

Tennessee Titans:

I know what you’re thinking, “Dean, you have two AFC South teams in this write-up one of them is going to get bounced cause the Chargers are taking that first wild card spot.” You’d be right, but I think there’s a scenario where both the Colts and Titans make the playoffs. I still believe the Titans or the Colts could make a run at the division title, and knock the Texans out. The Texans have the easiest schedule in football, but face both the Titans and Colts in the remainder of their schedule. Both of those games will be must wins for them to secure the division title, and their offensive line is the worst in football according to Pro Football Focus. Jurrell Casey of the Titans is licking his chops thinking about that matchup in Week 12, and it has been a big reason why we have not seen the same DeShaun Watson during the last two months of last season.

The Titans are coming off big wins against the Cowboys and Patriots over the past couple of weeks, and it looks like Marcus Mariota is finally getting comfortable taking risks with this offense. He FINALLY has a go-to receiver in Corey Davis (Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe could only go so far). This addition has made the offense more dynamic and opened things up down field. Davis had a few big plays last week against the Patriots and logged seven receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown. Offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur has done a great job with Mariota and making him comfortable throwing downfield, and this Week 11 matchup with the Colts will be fun to watch.

Prediction: The Titans lose to the Colts this week 24-27, but barring a potential losing streak from the flukey Texans still have a shot at the playoffs. Plus, a huge win for first-year coach Mike Vrable last week against his former coach. A win like that is reaffirming to both the coach and the players that everyone is all-in on a playoff push. ​​

Alex: Now that Michigan is back from their bye week, we have real football to talk about. Oh wait, they did play last week. 42-7 over Rutgers. There’s not much we can take from this that we didn’t already know but any thoughts you want to get out? Evan: They played an FCS level team so it’s hard to draw any real conclusions, but Shea Patterson looked really, really good. Also, I can’t help but think that if Oklahoma had Michigan’s defense they would be one of the best teams in college football history. That’s about it though.Alex: Patterson played his best game as a Wolverine, making a lot of very tough throws and doing just about everything Harbaugh asked of him. The team played it pretty conservatively, not wanting Shea to do much running and obviously, they didn’t need to. They were also very precautionary in terms of trying to avoid injuries. Which is also, obviously, the smart thing to do given the certain game that is coming up very soon.I think this game did showcase the value of Josh Metellus, which should be noted by some of his detractors, like say, you. Evan: I’ve been pretty bullish on Metellus since the Wisconsin game. I think he’s improved a lot. He still plays a little too high-risk, high-reward for me considering the way the rest of Don Brown’s defense is set up, but it is clear Hawkins is a major downgrade. But like you said, he didn’t play because of how precautionary the staff was with injuries, which I expect to see again this week.Alex: Brad Hawkins still has a ways to go in his development, which in understandable. And yes, I wouldn’t expect Metellus to play this week, but if he does that’s good news for Michigan since we have to think that the coaching staff is going to be taking 0 risks against a team like if Indiana. Any player that’s playing significant minutes this week would mean that they are basically 100%. Which is why it was so big that Rashan Gary played nearly the entire game last week against Rutgers. Evan: It was nice to see Gary back. You have to think the happiest person is Chase Winovich, who will certainly get held and double teamed less with Gary back and getting doubled/tripled on the other side. If this pass rush is at full strength the next two weeks, Peyton Ramsey and Dwayne Haskins are going to get to know Winovich, Gary, Uche, and the rest of the crew really well, as neither of their offensive lines have looked particularly strong in pass protection recently.Alex: It was interesting how Rutgers really schemed around Michigan’s pass rush last week, calling a lot of screens and short passes. It didn’t get them anywhere offensively, but it did keep their QB, Artur Sitkowski, upright. It also hurt Michigan’s obscene passing down sack rate. It was a game plan that I can imagine we’ll see a fair bit of in Columbus, given how Ohio State has called their offense this year. Evan: Yep, OSU loves their bubble screens and slants. The problem for them in theory is that they haven’t played a secondary with close to the speed of Michigan’s. Anyways, that’s for next week. Any other thoughts on Rutgers before we move on to Indiana?Alex: Just that a Michigan win over Indiana would mean that it is the longest winning streak (10 games) for the Wolverines since 2006, when they started that year 11-0. Onto Indiana. Evan: It’d be the longest win streak by Michigan within one season since 2006, but they won 10 games in a row from the bowl win against Florida in January 2016 up until that treacherous night in Iowa in November 2016. Anyways, Indiana is very meh. Average or below average across the board. Peyton Ramsey isn’t the worst QB in the world, but this Michigan defense will probably make him look like it for a few hours on Saturday. The Hoosiers sit at 5-5 and will likely need a week 13 win against Purdue to save bowl eligibility. They nearly upset Penn State three weeks ago before Trace McSorley scored a late touchdown to win 33-28. They have an early season win against Virginia who was briefly ranked later in the year. But they also only beat Rutgers by 7 and have lost a lot of blowout games. I don’t see much cause for concern or any real strengths from this group.Alex: The only real concern with Indiana is the ghosts of Indiana games past. Of course, all of the previous JH-Indiana games have had uncomfortable moments, with the two in Bloomington (2015, 2017) going to overtime and the one previous affair in the Big House being close throughout most of the game before De’Veon Smith put the team on his back and Michigan finally pulled away. The Wolverines were a significantly better team than the Hoosiers in all of those games but it didn’t seem that way on the field. But if we’re simply looking at the on-paper matchup, this should be an easy win for the Wolverines. Indiana is 81st in S&P+ to Michigan’s 4th. On offense, IU is 82nd to Michigan’s 21st and on defense, IU is 75th to Michigan’s #2 ranking. Vegas currently has the line at Michigan -28.5. Again, this shouldn’t be close. But it’s also hard to forget those other games. Evan: Some of those recent games were definitely uncomfortably close for sure. I do think this Michigan team is Harbaugh’s best, and this Indiana team feels a little worse than they were in recent years. The most important thing for Michigan is to convert in the red zone early and build a lead so that the game isn’t in question and they can rest the starters.The only way I see this game being even remotely close is if Michigan turns the ball over and doesn’t convert their scoring opportunities. There is no way that Indiana can keep pace in the yardage or field position battles. Alex: Also worth noting that this is Senior Day at the Big House and while this is not the world’s biggest senior class (certainly not 2016), it is always a motivational day and the team will want to come out with a lot of fire. It’s gonna be chilly as well, with the high for the day being in the mid-30s and with a kick of 4:00 pm, the sun will set in a hurry and it could get real cold. Bundle up! Evan: It definitely will be chilly. And you’re right, at this time of year, a 4:00 pm kick is basically a night game. One interesting dynamic to note: while this isn’t a large senior class and the only true senior starters are DE Winovich, OT JBB, S Kinnell, and RB Higdon (WR Perry, DT Marshall, and DT Mone also play quite a bit but don’t typically start), this could be the last home game for a handful of juniors who are draft eligible. Devin Bush and Rashan Gary both have top 10 grades right now and are essentially locks to enter the draft. Shea Patterson’s name will certainly be in the mix with a weak quarterback class. Every starting defender besides Devin Gil and Kwity Paye will at least think twice about testing draft waters. Michigan could be replacing 10-15 starters next year. It’ll be hard to say goodbye to these guys.Alex: The defensive side could certainly take a hit. Offense probably won’t lose many starters due to youth on the offensive line and WR, but with the talent on the defense, there will be a number of players who will have tough decisions to make in the offseason about their futures. One other fun tidbit: the farewell to this senior class also means a farewell to the last players who ever experienced the Brady Hoke regime. There’s only a few left as you’d have to be a RS Sr. to be in that group, but JBB, Winovich, Mone, Watson, Marshall, and Furbush, as well as a few walk-ons like Wangler are in that exclusive club. Anyway, onto predictions? Evan: Sure, let’s do it. You lead 6-4 now, so I need to convert on the next 2 for us to be tied at the end of the regular season. Sticking with the rule I established two weeks ago that hasn’t really helped me, I’ll let you go first.Alex: Let’s go with Michigan 35, Indiana 10. MVP is Higdon on Senior Day. Thing to watch is injuries vs. KEEPING SHEA PATTERSON HEALTHY ONE MORE WEEK. Evan: I’ll take Michigan 34 - Indiana 7. MVP is Devin Bush on his de facto senior day. Thing to watch is if Quinn Nordin gets a chance to build his confidence before OSU.