It's still Pats world in AFC East

Dolphins making moves, but can they catch the big dogs?

August 27, 2013|Dave Hyde, Sun Sentinel Columnist

The money quote, the one that fed the fantasy, wasn't much of one when you sift through the qualifiers and conditions. But it spoke of a giddy summer theory percolating through the hopes of another loud Dolphins' off-season.

This was somewhere after the Dolphins spent $110 million in guaranteed money for free agents, somewhere after Wes Welker was out in New England, after Rob Gronkowski's second surgery, after Aaron Hernandez was arrested.

The question running through blogs, chat rooms and talk shows was if the Patriots were vulnerable to the Dolphins. Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, still transitioning to the Dolphins from a Super Bowl champion Baltimore team, bit just enough on the idea.

"I think they are (vulnerable), but you can't just talk about it,'' he told CBSSports.com. "You have to do it.

And: "I was brought here to help knock them off. That doesn't mean we will, but we feel like we can."

Of course, the athletically-correct answer was: "Not now. Not yet. And never in May or August, as any Dolphins fan with a memory knows."

How far do you want to go back? To 2003, when Las Vegas oddsmakers made the Dave Wannstedt's Dolphins the off-season Super Bowl favorite? To 2006, when Sports Illustrated picked Nick Saban's team for the Super Bowl?

That all sounds comical now, right?

New England has won the AFC East for nine of the past 10 seasons. The only time they didn't was in 2008. That outlier even told you how strong their hold on the division remains.

Two weeks before the '08 season, quarterback Chad Pennington dropped from the sky into the Dolphins' lap. It said how important preseason really is when he went on to finish second in the league's MVP voting.

The other part of that 2008 equation was New England quarterback Tom Brady missed the whole year with a knee injury. Brady, even more than coach Bill Belichick, is the irreplaceable part of the Patriots.

That's why there was a brief spike of Dolphins excitement again in mid-August when Brady went down, clutching his knee, leaving a Patriots practice. No sane fan wants Brady seriously hurt. But everyone understood the possibilities if he was.

"Oh, no,'' a Patriots fan videotaping the play immediately said.

He knew. Everyone did. Brady is the difference in an AFC East. The Dolphins have high hopes for Ryan Tannehill. Buffalo and the Jets probably will turn the page with quarterbacks at some point this year.

Brady is the constant in New England is like Dan Marino for the Dolphins all those years. He gives them a chance every season. It matters the Patriot won't have their top five receivers from 2012 to start this season. It matters less with Brady throwing the ball.

That's why all talk of the Patriots sinking because of the receivers' loss is overdone. They were the top scoring offense in the NFL last year at 34.8 points a game.

So they'll score a little less without so many known receivers. So what? The real question is how much the Dolphins added to the 27th-ranked offense at 18 points a game last season.

Are the Dolphins hopes so fragile they sank when tight end Dustin Keller suffered a season-ending knee injury? It was a significant loss, sure. But if that sinks the season it wasn't going to be much of a season anyhow.

No team is static. The Dolphins of August will be far different than the Dolphins of December. That's a concept Joe Philbin understands and embraces. His job, he knows, involves developing players into his system and getting improvement through the year.

Ellerbe is one of a cast of newcomers. And he's learning Philbins' way. Asked about calling the Patriots vulnerable, he said in training camp, "I didn't say that."

The truth is the Dolphins inched closer to contention on one August day. It wasn't the mid-August one where Brady limped off a practice field only to return the following day.

It was Aug. 3.

Brady turned 36.

Other than that, the gas-bag theory of the Dolphins moving on par with New England now, today, is full of too much air and hope. It's still the Patriots' division as another season kickoff. We'll see if the Dolphins can change that by January.