May races offer a 2012 preview

The next two weeks will provide the first batch of concrete election data from the developing 2012 landscape. A pair of statewide gubernatorial primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky and two special House races from opposite coasts will hand each party an opportunity for early chest-thumping and soul-searching.

Here’s POLITICO’s primer for the electoral onslaught taking place over the next 12 days:

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May 14

West Virginia Gubernatorial Primary

Why it matters: Mountain State voters get an early chance to register their opinion of the status quo in what’s expected to be a sleepy, low-turnout affair Saturday. Four Democrats are attempting to dislodge acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin from the statehouse just six months after he took the reins from now-Sen. Joe Manchin. House Speaker Rick Thompson has labor backing, and state Treasurer John Perdue has launched an aggressive populist campaign sounding the alarm on climbing utility rates. The cash-flush Tomblin remains the strong front-runner — in part because of a fractured opposition.

On the Republican side, former Secretary of State Betty Ireland is fending off an ardent challenge from wealthy drilling executive Bill Maloney, who is trying to outflank her to the right. But Maloney hit a snag in his messaging when it was revealed he’s contributed thousands to Democrats, including Manchin, over the years.

If either Tomblin or Ireland isknocked out, it will be the first sign that anti-establishment forces that dominated 2010 are still simmering.

State of play: It’s getting nastier by the day in both parties. Thompson has ratcheted up ethical attacks on Tomblin, picking up where Perdue left off. The charge: Tomblin has shepherded gambling legislation and government funds to benefit his family and contributors. In his own previous ad, Perdue said Tomblin has “sold us out.” Maloney is trying to make up his polling deficit by attacking Ireland’s “reckless” office spending. For the most part, Tomblin and Ireland are taking the high road.

May 17

California’s 36th Congressional District

Why it matters: While the special election race to replace former Democratic Rep. Jane Harman is so far a low-key affair, it has also highlighted a battle between two wings of the party.

Los Angeles Councilwoman Janice Hahn, part of a prominent Southern California political family, has positioned herself as the standard-bearer for labor groups and working-class Democrats. She’s touted endorsements from the California Labor Federation and the AFL-CIO, as well as several police and firefighter unions.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen has aligned herself with the liberal activist set, promoting the backing she’s received from environmentalist groups like the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters and Netroots organizations, including Blue America and Democracy for America.

In the blogosphere, the Hahn-Bowen matchup has become a proxy battle between beer-track and wine-track Democrats. Whoever finishes on top will provide a small indication of which faction of the party has greater energy at this early stage in the cycle.