The important thing to remember here is that the Capitals were going to sign Fleischmann to a one-year deal regardless. You simply do not let a developed asset like a 20-goal scorer walk away for nothing, and avoiding arbitration helps preserve goodwill on both sides. The only important detail was: for how much?

And that seems to be the rub for most: $2.6 million is too much. But is it?

It is beyond debate that Tomas Fleischmann is a skilled hockey player. He has improved his per-game goal and point totals in each of his seasons in the National Hockey League (NHL), registering career highs nearly across the board during the 2009-10 regular season and finishing sixth in goals scored on an offensively potent Washington Capitals team.

So the question becomes: what is Flesichman’s 56G/72A /128P in 260 games worth?

The one player with similar career stats at the same ages for the first five years of their career is Valtteri Filppula, who in 290 games has boxcar stats of 52G/77A/129P – never scoring more than 19 goals in a season – making $3.5M in 2010-11.

This pegs Fleischmann’s value somewhere in the $2.5 to $3.5 million range – despite him being terrible when it came to puck possession (having the worst 5v5 CORSI ON for any Capital playing more than 20 games) or that he was on the ice for more Goals Against per 60 minutes than any other Caps skater.

Luckily for Fleischmann the market (and potential) dictates value, and a 25-year old forward on the upside of his career simply cannot be let go for nothing.

So join me in welcoming the Caps opening night 2nd line left wingmice-droppings collector 2nd line center, and let us know what you think Flash is worth in the comments.

With Tomas Fleischmann’s arbitration hearing looming in the next few days it doesn’t look like the two sides will come to an agreement beforehand. GMGM moved pretty swiftly to avoid the courtroom drama with Fehrand Schultz indicating, at least to this writer, that the two sides are VERY far apart.

My guess is GMGM is taking the “show me you can do this again” attitude while Fleischmann is trying to cash in on what could be his peak season statistically. Either way, we are looking at arbitration. While it isn’t exactly Judge Judy, the player and team each propose a salary for the coming season and argue their cases at a hearing. The arbitrator, a neutral third party, then sets the player’s salary.

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:

The player’s “overall performance” including statistics in all previous seasons.

Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.

The player’s length of service with the team and in the NHL.

The player’s “overall contribution” to the team’s success or failure.

The player’s “special qualities of leadership or public appeal.”

The performance and salary of any player alleged to be “comparable” to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:

The salary and performance of a “comparable” player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.

Tomas Fleischmann was drafted by the Detroit Red Wings in the 2nd round (63rd overall) of the 2002 NHL Entry Draft. In February 2004 Flash was traded to the Capitals by Detroit along with Detroit’s 1st round choice in 2004 (which was used to draft Mike Green) and their 4th round choice in 2006 for Robert Lang.

As a prospect he was (aptly) described as a “flashy winger with great offensive tools” while being graded as “not quite good enough to play on the top line or pairing on a regular basis, but still possessing enough talent to contribute offensively.”

For the fourth consecutive season, Fleischmann improved upon his regular season goal and point totals but continued to fall flat in the playoffs (three goals and two assists in 22 career NHL playoff games) where he finally became a healthy-scratch in Game 7.

To find comparable players I did a search at Hockey-Reference for players who were between the ages of 25 and 27, had seasons of 20 or more goals (Fleischmann had 23 in ’09-10) and fewer than 60 points (Fleischmann had 51).

Before we narrow down that list we should keep in mind the salary and performance of a “comparable” player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent is not admissible.

Vanek was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the 1st round (5th overall) of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft. While he has shown to be a much more prolific scorer than Fleischmann there is no denying that their ’09-10 campaigns were virtually identical on paper in the box score stats. Look for Evans to push the envelope and have his client ask for a near identical salary award to Vanek’s $6.4 million.

The average contract value of the list above is roughly $4.6mil. Now I am not suggesting that this is what Fleischmann is worth nor that this is the exhaustive list that will be used in arbitration. As a matter of fact, the page limit for evidence is 40 pages. Forty. Oh. So yea, there is going to be a lot of stuff thrown around. So think of this post more as a conversation starter until July 28th and let us know: