Food Price Shock Cometh

Today, some Fed member, arguably of a Dovish persuasion, made headlines by saying that inflation was tame in all but food and energy. We are confident he is right. So for all those readers who are lucky enough to not have to eat, fill up with gas, or heat their homes, the following video from the NIA on suddenly surging prices in virtually every vertical, is probably irrelevant. All others may be advised to watch it...

The world has moved a step closer to a food price shock after the US government surprised traders by cutting stock forecasts for key crops, sending corn and soyabean prices to their highest level in 30 months.

The price jump comes after the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned last week that the world could see repetition of the 2008 food crisis if prices rose further. The trend is becoming a major concern in developing countries.

While officials are drawing comfort from stable rice prices, key for feeding Asia, they warn that a sustained period of high prices, especially in grains such as wheat, would hit poorer countries. Food price hikes have already led to riots in Algeria and Mozambique.

“Stocks of corn and soyabean are at incredibly tight levels ... and the markets are surging to incredibly strong prices,” Chad Hart, agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said.

Dan Basse, president of AgResource, a Chicago-based forecaster, added: “There’s just no room for error any more. With any kind of weather problem in the upcoming growing season we will make new all-time highs in corn and soy, and to a lesser degree wheat futures.”

Agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest revision to US and global stocks means there is no further room for weather problems. The crops in Argentina and Brazil, to be harvested soon, look fragile due to dryness.

Traders are particularly concerned about the cost of vegetable oil, key for developing countries such as China where an emerging middle class is buying more frying oil. The US Department of Agriculture said the ratio of global stocks-to-demand would fall later this year to “levels unseen since the mid-1970s, reflecting an accelerated pace of vegetable oil” consumption for food and fuel.

And yes, as we have been predicting for months, kiss those record "earnings" goodbye:

The shares of Deere & Co, the world’s largest manufacturer of tractors and combines, surged 2.3 per cent, approaching an all-time high. But food companies such as Nestlé fell as analysts said they would struggle to pass rising wholesale costs to consumers.

Struggle yes, and eventually have no choice but to do so. In the meantime, readers better familiaries themselves with the definition of stagflation, also known as 10% unemployment (12% when factoring in the collapse in the labor force), and $4 gas. And while at it, they may also look up the term "rice bubble" - in 3-6 months it will be all the world will be talking about.

On October 12, 2006, Wesley Snipes, Eddie Ray Kahn, and Douglas P. Rosile were charged with one count of conspiring to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C.§ 371 and one count of knowingly making or aiding and abetting the making of a false and fraudulent claim for payment against the United States, under 18 U.S.C.§ 287 and 18 U.S.C.§ 2. Snipes was also charged with six counts of willfully failing to file Federal income tax returns by their filing dates under 26 U.S.C.§ 7203.[13] The conspiracy charge against Snipes included allegations that he filed a false amended return including a false tax refund claim of over US$4 million for the year 1996 and a false amended return including a false tax refund claim of over US$7.3 million for the year 1997. The government alleged that Snipes attempted to obtain fraudulent tax refunds using a tax protester theory called the "861 argument" (essentially, an argument that the domestic income of U.S. citizens and residents is not taxable). The indictment said Snipes used accountants who already had a history of filing false returns to obtain refund payments for their clients.[14] The government also charged that Snipes sent three worthless, fictitious "bills of exchange" to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in the amounts of $1,000,000 (on November 30, 2000), $12,000,000 (January 18, 2001), and $1,000,000 (September 10, 2002), with each accompanied by an IRS tax payment voucher coupon.[15]

Snipes was a client with American Rights Litigators, which Kahn operated. As a client, Snipes gave a percentage of his tax refunds to Kahn's organization.[16]The government also charged that Snipes failed to file tax returns for the years 1999 through 2004.

In a December 4, 2006 letter from Snipes in response to his indictment, he declared himself "a non-resident alien" of the United States (in reality Snipes is a US born citizen).[17] Snipes said he was being made an example of and unfairly targeted by prosecutors because of his fame in connection with the federal tax fraud investigation. He attempted unsuccessfully to get the trial moved away from Ocala, Florida on the ground that racist attitudes in that town would prejudice his chance for a fair trial.[18] Snipes faced the possibility of up to sixteen years in prison and substantial fines if convicted on all the charges.[19] The trial began on January 14, 2008, in Ocala, Florida,[20] with opening statements beginning on January 16, 2008.[21]

Mug shot of Snipes taken in April 2008.

On February 1, 2008, Snipes was acquitted on the felony count of conspiracy to defraud the government and on the felony count of filing a false claim with the government. He was, however, found guilty on three misdemeanor counts of failing to file Federal income tax returns (and acquitted on three other "failure to file" charges). His co-defendants, Douglas P. Rosile and Eddie Ray Kahn, were convicted on the conspiracy and false claim charges in connection with the income tax refund claims filed for Snipes.[22][23]

On April 24, 2008, Snipes was sentenced to three years in prison for willful failure to file federal income tax returns under 26 U.S.C.§ 7203.[24][25][26] While defense lawyers urged leniency, prosecutors argued that Snipes should be made an example of because of his fame.[5] Kahn was sentenced to ten years in prison, and Rosile was sentenced to four and half years in prison.[27] Until December 9, 2010, Snipes remained free on bail to work, even traveling internationally, while he appealed his conviction.[28][29] In April 2009, the Los Angeles Wave reported that Snipes has refused to answer certain questions in connection with a talent agency lawsuit in which the agency claims that Snipes owes over $1.4 million in commissions. Snipes is reported to have taken the position that his answers could incriminate him in a federal tax investigation. Lawyers for the talent agency stated that Snipes' lawyer advised the lawyers for the talent agency that "Snipes and his [ . . . ] companies are under an additional investigation by the Internal Revenue Service and Snipes would be asserting his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination and would not answer any questions at his deposition."[30] On May 22, 2008, the trial court ruled that Snipes could remain free while his appeal is being considered.[31]

On July 16, 2010, in a 35-page decision, the United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit affirmed Snipes' convictions.[32][33][34] At the conclusion of its decision, the Court of Appeals stated:

Although Snipes argues that there were mitigating factors that the judge did not specifically mention at sentencing, these facts -- his college education, his family, and his charitable activities -- do not compel the conclusion that the sentence crafted in accordance with the 18 U.S.C. [section] 3553(a) factors was substantively unreasonable. The district court acted well within its considerable discretion in sentencing Snipes to thirty-six months in prison.[34]

On November 19, 2010, the United States District Court in Ocala, Florida denied motions for permission to interview jurors and motions for a new trial which had been filed by attorneys for Snipes. The Court ordered that the judgment of commitment be enforced.[35] In the seventeen page Order, the Court also granted the prosecution's motion to revoke the bail for Snipes.[36]

On December 9, 2010, Snipes reported to the Federal Correctional Institution McKean near Lewis Run, Pennsylvania.[37][38] In a television appearance on December 7, 2010, Snipes was asked by CNN'sLarry King if he was nervous about going to prison and admitted his trepidation about doing time. "I think any man would be nervous," Snipes said. "Given the length of time that they are suggesting that I be away from my family, away from my profession, away from my ability to provide for my family and for those who have depended upon me to contribute to society ... I think anyone would be nervous about that."

The Federal Bureau of Prisons shows a projected release date for Wesley Snipes of July 19, 2013.[39]

I love the USA. I get to hunt, fish, do what I want and everyone gets to live whatever lifestyle they want. Go to church ? Drive down to florida or vegas ? What other country can match all this ? The education is better than most and the hospitals also.

All of this has a cost Mr. Snipes, you have made millions pimping yourself in the USA ?? Pay the man.

You get to hunt (with a permit), fish (with a permit), do what you want (as long as it is within socially acceptable norms) and everyone gets to live whatever lifestyle they want (as long as they have strong lobbyists). Drive down to Florida or Vegas (need license). The education is better than most (but worse than all other industrialized nations) and the hospitals to (if they are still open).

All this oppression costs money. This man has withheld hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of oppression. He's the man.

Of course I know Timken. They are NOT interested in selling to us in Peru, they already have their distribution solidified. Timken gets a little higher prices based upon past superiority, but that is even changing.

Our company there in Peru is mostly automotive anyway, much of Timken's best bearings are industrial, as your buddy has noted.

Timken did not treat us right. So we go with who brung us to the dance..., Korea! Bless their hearts for being open-minded to our small company there in Lima.

Platinum testing the all important $1800 resistance level. And by its side the line up stands gold at $1385, silver at $29.50, DXY at 80, and oil at $93. Push comes to shove and resistance breaks on any level and all these numbers will move higher. The move, which will be lead by platinum moving from $1800-$2200, will also have silver going to $36, oil to $105, the dollar to DXY 66, and gold to $1500. These numbers will come in line quickly, because platinum will move quickly. These will be the numbers by the spring equinox. Oh and after that it gets really interesting.

He started bringing up tax, permit, bla - but the thing is you can't do half the stuff we can in most other countries. Can you start up a business in France or Peru or West Africa or China in under a week ??? I'm talking joe sixer .... Own a gun, vote, social security, live in any state you want. Golf, ect,ect,ect,ect,ect,ect,ect,ect ..... Its no contest. Go vacation come back no problems, try leaving China or Russia on a whim'

If one is to contemplate the nature of the tax system, one can only conclude that it is a form of institutionalized violence. Whatever justification you can come up with for taxes does not mitigate this fact. It is outright abuse.

Excuse my generalisation, but farking Americans like you are what a) give the good ones a bad name, and b) contributed to a good chunk of the worlds' problems today with your 'America is the best' arrogance. If you REALLY think America is the greatest country in the world, you are barking up the wrong tree. America might be the most militarily powerful nation in the world, but that doesn't make you cool. If you use your powers not for good, but for being dicks, that makes you dicks. Same rules apply in the schoolyard, think about how all the other kids are afraid of the bully, but they still figure he's just an insecure dick.

Now if you want to rant about how fucking great 'murka is, go right ahead, but pick some reasons that you can back up, and quit picking on the weak third world kids as examples of what makes you so fucking awesome.

Seriously. I can name 5 countries in the world right now where you can do everything you can in the good old US of A, including setting up a business in as little as 2 or 3 days - if that's you standard for what makes 'good' then you need to have agood long hard look at yourself.

My apologies to the reasonable Americans, but you probably also appreciate this guys is a fuckwit, so, carry on.

I'm going back to my fine American bourbon now. That's something that you do OK at.

Can you start up a business in France or Peru or West Africa or China in under a week ???

In China, a business can be started under a week.

You can relocate an entire facility from x to China in a matter of a week so it is operational.

What US citizens must understand when they leave the US and/or worse give up their nationality, is they move to the side of non US citizens. And therefore become part of the list of targets with no restrictions.

For example, the US is at starving some parts of the world. A US citizen staying in the US is living on the place where only reverberation will be felt. In the last resort, US citizens will be fed through stamps. It is a total difference if one relocates elsewhere as one becomes a target for US foreign policies.

Just like for a gang, the most secure place from the Ganglord's doings is the ganglord's turf itself. Elsewhere, well, anything is more likely to happen.

What opportunities were available in this country when my relatives came here from Europe at the turn of the 19th/20th century, and what opportunities have been taken away by statist assholes like you since then?

Yeah, OK Private Snowball. Send me back to 1812, when all of those dumb ass southern banks were buying government bonds, and then refusing to convert their own paper to specie to the New England banks.

So, you think it is ok to take other people money because it makes you feel good? Do you think government should be entitled to other peoples money in order to please your sences? Do you think America was built on wealth redistribution? The point of the financial crises is that very few people can actually afford a life style, with such high taxes and burdensome regulations. In fact, the US has not had real prosperity for a very long time, but the illusion of it. Without loans, America as you described it, falls apart. And, the people who actually built the infrastructure and contributed to the foundation and real success of America did not have even 1% of thier money that is confiscated today. It has been one big progressive lie,

Right, and what the hell do you think people did before modern medicine? They did the best they could, which is the same thing they'll be doing if they have to go without it again. A large fraction of the worlds population doesn't have "trained surgeons", and they don't go and eat a bullet every time they catch a cold. Hell, a lot of them don't have bullets for that matter, either.

If you need a surgeon, you will be dead soon anyway, or wish you were.

Of those that I know, those that ran into a surgeon are dead or dying, and surgery shortened their lives, not lengthened them.

Skip modern medicine, and go with more time tested remedies. Getting more life from modern medicine is the devil's bargain. The only place modern medicine succeeds is where there is better sanitation because of it.

Those that never ran into a doctor are the only ones that had a decent life and lived out their years.

While my ethical take on euthanasia definitely borrows some from your line of thinking, eschewing modern medicine entirely is both stupid and irresponsible to others. Are you a big fan of polio and smallpox?

i have had four surgeries. i hope they didn't shorten my life. but it did take about a year, to get over the drugs given to me to go asleep and ease the pain to repair my broken bones and insert pins and plates.

In a town near where I live, it's well-known that the hot truck serving food to migrant workers is also packed with prostitutes. It's a weird thing to go into the local bars in completely rural communities and see what I'm sure is a small subset of these incredibly hardworking people with hats on half-backward, pants on the ground, drinking and dancing to Nashville's best music. Ah, globalization...a Flat World mixes things strangely.

That said, the community of migrant workers here work unbelievably hard.

Sweet! This ought to kick those $9-$11 dollar burrito freaks square in the package. After all, those things are mostly freakin' rice.

I suppose it is time to branch out in terms of selling the crap out of companies that have zero freakin' pricing power and are currently being strangled by the Bernanke Wave...and Frontrun it into the ground...in criminal syndicate style. After all, everyone is supposed to pretend that there is no inflation. Oh, wait...inflation numbers tomorrow morning, too. This day just keeps getting better and better.

Ummmmm....not really sure what the heck is going on with this little thread, but I am damn sure I could have nothing to do with a chick who has no idea what is not in a dry martini...to which the answer is, of course, much dry vermouth.

But let us all try to keep it together and agree that eating $9-$11 dollar burritos [including Novartis products] in a room with that ever so cozy warehouse motif at a ghost mall somewhere in the middle of an economic depression...let's just all gather 'round the notion of that being "Last year's good idea" as .99 cent burritos start to look awfully yummy in Flation Land.

I'm thinking the world's most common server of petroshrimp may well be up next for Whack-a-Mole action, come to think of it. And the whole damn portfolio of short positions is coming full circle now...like a martini so damn dry that each sip makes you thirstier.

Yes, I can feel it...how the burrito links to the crappy drugs and the petroshrimp maker and the petroshrimp server both, to the silver zombie bank drive up window where the zombies pull up with their zombie devices, everyone getting this odd craving for human flesh, suddenly and without warning...the first of the early adopters of the white ones.

The only thing left, I guess, is to finally figure out the entry point into gold...perhaps, removing if from the teeth of zombies that have been "cured." Yes.

I have to go write all this down somewhere...but I'm sure I'll come back to it later....

Of course they are going to struggle to pass on costs. They can't make any of the Damn Packaging any smaller. It's hysterical that these companies are still hanging on to the lie that they have not raised prices. When you cut the amount given for an amount paid by half, that's a doubling of price, even if the size of the package has not changed.

the fucking chip bags already look like one of those inflated bubble domes - about 6 chips in a baked lays bag if you include the pieces that they toss in to make weight (all the fat boyz eat those at subway this time of year in lieu of exercising).

I was in the store the other day with my 7 year old. About 3 or 4 people in the isle we were walking through; one young guy was eying the Dorito's. My son asks if we can get some of those tasty Dorito's. I (very audibly) said, [son], take that bag and squeeze the top and see if there are any chips in it. He does and answers "No". I said "The person that buys that bag is paying for what he thinks is a full bag but is actually 1/3 air". I then asked him if anyone who bought air was had a brain and he said "No, that's silly".. the people looked at me and that young man who now held a bag of chips put the bag of chips back on the shelf. I walked out of the isle with a smile.

Nothing says humiliation like a 7 year old saying you're a dumb fuck in not so many words.

I do stuff like that all the time in the stores. Embarrassing people into using their noodle has a very good effect. Whether or not they are actually buying air when the stated weight is on the bag is irrelevant. People are aware they are being taken but won't put up the fight.

Q: to what extent are these forecasts used to steal from the farmers, by manipulating prices as they sell their futures, then once they have sold everything, allowing the real numbers to be known? And when do farmers sell their futures, as they need to, in order to line up loans for the next crop?

This too shall pass as the "oil shock" of $147/barrel that was supposed to throw us into chaos passed. Deere is not cheap here and needs to pull back but I wouldn't blame on higher food costs. Rather blame it on traders running up the stock price.

it's not even in the top ten. If money is nothing more than an exchange system for value or work, and oil is the most condensed form of energy ever discovered and the basis for our entire economy, with volume levels literally the eqivalent of 20+ million slaves working around the clock, then yes, our economic crisis and our oil crisis are intimately connected.

Let's not get crazy this is really simple. Cat, Joy Global, Bucyrus, Deere are all booming.

The market knows about the 20 year bull run in most commodities and farming that's looming - think Jim Rogers. People need to eat and China, India, Brazil just getting started. This is a long term play, just keep buying the dip. Think about all the infrastructure that is needed, many years of investment and its coming ....

.... " When foreigners say Bangalore is India's version of Silicon Valley, the high-tech office park called Electronics City is what they're often thinking of. But however much Californians might hate traffic-clogged Route 101, the main drag though the Valley, it has nothing on Hosur Road. This potholed, four-lane stretch of gritty pavement—the primary access to Electronics City—is pure chaos. Cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles, taxis, rickshaws, cows, donkeys, and dogs jostle for every inch of the roadway as horns blare and brakes squeal. Drivers run red lights and jam their vehicles into any available space, paying no mind to pedestrians clustered desperately on median strips like shipwrecked sailors.

Pass through the six-foot-high concrete walls into Electronics City, though, and the loudest sounds you hear are the chirping of birds and the whirr of electric carts that whisk visitors from one steel-and-glass building to the next. Young men and women stroll the manicured pathways that wend their way through the leafy 80-acre spread or coast quietly on bicycles along the smooth asphalt roads.

With virtually no mass transit in Bangalore, Indian technology firm Infosys Technologies Ltd. spends $5 million a year on buses, minivans, and taxis to transport its 18,000 employees to and from Electronics City. And traffic jams mean workers can spend upwards of four hours commuting each day. "India has underinvested in infrastructure for 60 years, and we're behind what we need by 10 to 12 years," says T.V. Mohandas Pai, director of human resources for Infosys.

India's high-tech services industry has set the country's economic flywheel spinning. Growth is running at 9%-plus this year. The likes of Wal-Mart (WMT ), Vodafone (VOD ), and Citigroup (C ) are placing multibillion-dollar bets on the country, lured by its 300 million-strong middle class. In spite of a recent drop, the Bombay stock exchange's benchmark Sensex index is still up more than 40% since June. Real estate has shot through the roof, with some prices doubling in the past year.

But this economic boom is being built on the shakiest of foundations. Highways, modern bridges, world-class airports, reliable power, and clean water are in desperately short supply. And what's already there is literally crumbling under the weight of progress. In December, a bridge in eastern India collapsed, killing 34 passengers in a train rumbling underneath. Economic losses from congestion and poor roads alone are as high as $6 billion a year, says Gajendra Haldea, an adviser to the federal Planning Commission. " ..............

3. These people do not follow any code of conduct and are only concerned with not getting caught.

4. These people will cause foot riots trying to steal money to stay in power through inflation.

5. These people might depopulate the world. The IT revolution was about polarizing people and sorting us according to danger to them or threat to their power. Apparently nano technology is hard or something. They are running out of nanometers and their ability to process threats will not be what they had hoped it to be. The industrial revolution turned out to be much more beneficial to them than expected but that is in danger as oil runs out.

6. Anyone who warns of food riots is not fear mongering. They are trying to get people ready.

Fear mongering is when people make statements about how the fed will do anything to stay in power. We know this. We've seen this. It's been written in the history books. We get it. You're mean. We really get it.

Yes Yes, I agree. The fundamentals are all clearly there. Why, in 2007, when Deere traded at almost $100/share at a P/E slightly higher than today, the infrastructure in Bangalore was even in more dire straights.

Given the glowing opportunity, the ALWAYS fact-based stock market realized the growth that laid ahead, and pushed the stock down to about $40! In the last 18 months, since that brilliant analytical move, the market re-re-analyzed the situation, and has bid the price to $80 and a P/E of over 20x again.

Yes, you are right -- the fundamentals are what drives the stock price -- always...

Ed McCord is Caterpillar’s worldwide product manager for mining trucks and shovels. He spoke to more than 100 Caterpillar employees Thursday in central Illinois as they marked the production of the 10,000th 250-ton capacity 793F truck model made in Decatur since large mining truck production began in 1984.

The (Decatur) Herald & Review reports Cat execs promise the Decatur plant has a lot more production in its future. It is spending $500 million to overhaul the Decatur factory and other state production facilities. The goal is to expand the capacity of Cat’s off-highway truck assembly lines as orders increase. AP

For more than 85 years, Caterpillar Inc. has been making progress possible and driving positive and sustainable change on every continent. With 2009 sales and revenues of $32.396 billion, Caterpillar is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and dieselelectric locomotives. The company also is a leading services provider through Caterpillar Financial Services, Caterpillar Remanufacturing Services, Caterpillar Logistics Services and Progress Rail Services

Caterpillar Inc., a giant maker of construction and mining machinery, recently told investors it expects stronger orders from companies that rent equipment to builders and others because much of that rental gear is starting to wear out.

In November, 2010, Caterpillar announced that it will buy Bucyrus, touted to be the biggest deal ever in the company's history. The deal capitalizes on the rising demand for coal and minerals triggered by growth in the emerging nations.

Cat will be above 150 in 2012 they did not own Bucyrus or Electro-motive Diesel in 2006-07 they now can provide everything the buyer needs to get product to shore'... load up the boats. Maybe they will buy DRYS .... Lol'

Yes the oil shock passed, when the world came w/i 12 hours of armageddon.

FYI: $4 a gallon gas in May of 2008, was the cutoff point for consumers. It was the first time in 20 years miles driven contracted.

It is the point at which the cost of those shitty look alike lulu outfits you hawk will start to increase in price, to the extent that aspirational female shoppers say " No thanks. The 10 i have are enough".

From Reuters:

Cotton prices almost doubled last year. Corn and wheat prices jumped about 50 percent. Copper reached a record last week, after gaining more than 30 percent last year and doubling in 2009. The cost of cheddar cheese rose 19 percent. And crude oil is near its highest level in more than two years.

"We're seeing margin squeezes on virtually everybody in consumer-land right now and we're actually looking to position ourselves a little further up the supply chain, away from the consumer," said David Kolpak, managing director at Victory Capital Management.

The effect may soon be apparent in company results, as they show whether raw materials prices have hurt bottom lines. The first-quarter earnings season will help shed light on issues like pricing power and how companies are managing costs.

It is the point at which the cost of those shitty look alike lulu outfits you hawk will start to increase in price, to the extent that aspirational female shoppers say " No thanks. The 10 i have are enough".

This demographic doesn't give a rat's ass about $4/gallon gas or $10/gallon gas. These are the same folks who buy every iGadget put in front of them. They have money and will spend it. Gas prices do not play a role in their finances.

BTW: Oil is only at $92/barrel. That's a long way from $150 and $4+ per gallon. It won't happen any time soon. You really think TPTB would ever let that happen after everything else they've done to keep the dream alive??

And EVERY country that has a DOLLAR peg is getting blowtorched by inflation, they can move the peg and help the people so why is it they keep the peg ?????

Because the banking system in those countries would be blowtorched if they broke the peg ....

...... " JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia is projected to keep its currency pegged to the US dollar next year, Jadwa Investments said in its latest study.

Although the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA might slightly raise interest rates toward the end of 2011, they will remain at historical low levels, the study also said.

"The riyal will remain pegged to the US dollar during 2011. We do not expect any serious discussion on breaking the peg or speculative pressure against the peg. Dollar movements are likely to be driven by the same themes as 2010; weakness in developed economies and strength in emerging economies," it said.

"The exchange rate peg to the US dollar and the lack of capital controls mean that interest rates in the Kingdom need to broadly shadow those in the US. We see little chance of noticeably higher interest rates in the US in 2011," it said.

"Currently, the US is loosening monetary policy. With the main US interest rate, the Fed funds rate, effectively as a low as it can go, the Fed is stimulating the economy through the creation of new money known as quantitative easing."

The report said it is premature to assess whether the current program of quantitative easing, set to run until the middle of 2011, will then cease. " ............

Oil is only at $92/barrel. That's a long way from $150 and $4+ per gallon

That's right Harry, but the nation is much weaker now. It was primarily oil and gas that had run in price. Now toss all the rest of those commodities on top of higher gasoline.

Oh, and 8 million freakin' people have lost their jobs, Harry, leaving us in a much more vulnerable position as consumers, less able to absorb higher gasoline prices, and heating oil prices, and food, clothing, etc.

Harry, it is one thing to be bullish in all of this. It is quite another to have no sense of why you are bullish...because this answer of yours would indicate just that...no sense. Ya ain't puttin' much of the puzzle together here. You got one corner, it would seem, and ya lost the box top.

Ok, here's what I don't get from you guys: "8 million freakin' people have lost their jobs, Harry, leaving us in a much more vulnerable position as consumers, less able to absorb higher gasoline prices, and heating oil prices, and food, clothing, etc." Retail Sales are great. Obviously, someone is spending money and lots of it.

Again, go past the rhetoric and look at the data. There isn't much difference between gas at 3.25 or gas at 4 bucks. The people spending the money, keeping the economy moving aren't caring in the least about $4 gas. Why don't you see that??

Thanks for your longer comments. I've bee able to form a better picture of your views. It seems that you really are clueless, as well as haughty. Your petulance is annoying. Think seriously about some intellectual flexibility because your intransigence will be your undoing.

BTW: Oil is only at $92/barrel. That's a long way from $150 and $4+ per gallon. It won't happen any time soon. You really think TPTB would ever let that happen after everything else they've done to keep the dream alive??

>>

You do not understand. The Federal Reserve board has no control over 190 million years of geology.

Yes at some point. But we've at least a couple hundred years before that happens. Until then, the price is always manipulated and controlled by an entity that benefits from higher prices. Hence, there is control over pricing. At least for the next couple hundred years.

Not a damn thing wrong with changing shopping habits in this regard. Buy long dated items that you really will use anyhow - get them when on sale and load up. Rotate inventory (FIFO). Saves money and builds a buffer for bad times.