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Friday, 9 October 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today...

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Markets – some strong moves yday in the US setting up
European futures today: S&P futures have rallied for 6 of the last 7 days,
adding 7.0%, making this the biggest 7 day rally since Tuesday 6 December 2011 (Predicted Markets).
It was the first time the S&P 500 closed above the 2,000 mark since August
20, and the first time the Dow capped a day above 17,000 since August 19
(Bloomberg). US crude oil prices surpassing the $50 a barrel mark for the first
time since July.

It really has been a strong start to October...

(h/t @RyanDetrick)

...and that has helped other risk assets including the Australian dollar:

Meanwhile the Greek press are talking about ‘EU Said To Mull
Merging Greek Banks' Subsidiaries’ (Kathimerini). Some of the payback for
Tspiras playing ball… 15% of GDP in debt service cost still = a good
indication of the severity of the issue.

Germany/UK talk – ‘British officials confirmed that
while the two leaders would discuss Syria and the migrant crisis, the British
side envisaged the main topic of conversation at the dinner in Chequers on Friday
night would be about the British renegotiation. Mr Cameron is expected to seek
support-in-principle from Mrs Merkel for British demands for Europe-wide
reforms to that would delay the payment of in-work benefits to newly arrived EU
workers’ (link here)

Still slowing visitors in HK – not easy for luxury
etc. but factored in now…and hence why more +ve chat around Macau/Chinese govt
support helping: