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Friday, June 7, 2013

What's that about 16 years? Since 1996, you say?

You'd be surprised...

This is very weird! Anthony Watts (who runs a science denying blog, WUWT) is amused that those who understand climate change know that the world is (still) warming. In fact, it's that very global warming that is causing climate change.

You’d be surprised at what they don’t know at the UN climate conference in Bonn. Then again, maybe you wouldn’t. Although the evidence keeps mounting up, most of the delegates in Bonn are unaware that there had been no warming for 16 years**.

You'd be surprised at what Craig Rucker and Anthony Watts and people who read WUWT don't know:

** I'm assuming they mean since 1996, 16 years before the last full year of data, 2012. Another year would make little difference. It's still warming.

Update

If you're having trouble figuring out what the charts mean, I've prepared a short video that explains what you can glean from a chart of global surface temperature anomalies. You can see it here at HotWhopper or on YouTube. It should help with the other charts, too.

Remember that's just the surface temperature that hasn't risen as much. Earth is still gaining a lot of energy.

As you can see it's still warming on the surface, just not quite as quickly. On the other hand the oceans are still getting hotter and ice is still melting. Earth as a whole is accumulating a lot of energy.

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All you need to know about WUWT

WUWT insider Willis Eschenbach tells you all you need to know about Anthony Watts and his blog, WattsUpWithThat (WUWT). As part of his scathing commentary, Wondering Willis accuses Anthony Watts of being clueless about the blog articles he posts. To paraphrase:

Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece...(he couldn't tell if it would)... stand the harsh light of public exposure.

Latest climate science from SkepticalScience.com

BoM ENSO Tracker

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models showing that further warming is likely in coming months. El Niño WATCH indicates about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015.

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 °C to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 °C above average over a large area for February. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks. Weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, and this may induce further warming.

All international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May. By mid-year, six of the eight models indicate SSTs will exceed El Niño thresholds. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time are lower than those at other times of the year, and hence some caution should be exercised.