November 01, 2010

Angle, Reid virtually tied

Raleigh, N.C. – The Nevada Senate race is headed for a photo finish with Sharron Angle leading Harry Reid just 47-46 on PPP's final poll of the race. The survey indicates that Reid takes a 50-46 lead with early voters into election day but that those still planning to vote tomorrow are intending to support Angle by a 48-40 margin.

Democratic voters in Nevada really hold Reid's fate in their hands by whether they show up at the polls tomorrow or not. Angle's 1 point lead is built on an electorate that supported Barack Obama by only 4 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That means a lot of Democratic leaning voters aren't planning to vote tomorrow and if even a small percentage of them can be rousted out of complacency to go vote for Reid it might be enough to put him over the top.

Both candidates are getting just a shade under 80% from voters in their own party. Angle has the slight overall advantage because she's ahead 52-38 with independents. Regardless of who wins the election tomorrow Nevada will have a Senator it's not particularly fond of. Only 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Angle to 53% with a negative one and Reid's approval rating is just 42% with 55% of voters disapproving of him.

There's a lot more clarity in the Governor's race: Brian Sandoval is going to be the next Governor of Nevada. He leads Rory Reid 55-44. Sandoval has proven to be by far and away the most appealing candidate on the ballot in the state this year- 56% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 33% who view him negatively. He's winning independents by 23 points and taking 22% of the Democratic vote.

“The Nevada Senate election is really going to hinge on whether thousands of Obama voters who haven’t been particularly engaged with this year’s election end up turning out tomorrow or not,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Reid has a higher ceiling of support than Angle and will win if enough of those people show up but whether they will is an open question.”

PPP surveyed 682 likely Nevada voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q7 The candidates for Attorney General areRepublican Travis Barrick and DemocratCatherine Cortez Masto. If the election wastoday, who would you vote for? If TravisBarrick, press 1. If Catherine Cortez Masto,press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.Barrick ............................................................ 39%Masto.............................................................. 51%Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall hadbeen Democrat Harry Reid and RepublicanDanny Tarkanian, who would you have votedfor?Harry Reid....................................................... 39%Danny Tarkanian............................................. 54%Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate were justRepublican Sharron Angle and Democrat HarryReid, who would you vote for?Sharron Angle ....... 48%Harry Reid............. 49%Undecided............. 3%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 46%Barack Obama................................................ 50%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 4%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 52%Man................................................................. 48%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If aRepublican, press 2. If you are an independentor identify with another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 41%Republican...................................................... 40%Independent/Other.......................................... 19%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 10%30 to 45........................................................... 30%46 to 65........................................................... 34%Older than 65.................................................. 26%

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