Tom Foley, the endorsed Republican candidate for Connecticut governor, left, eats lunch with New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart during a campaign stop in New Britain, Conn, Monday, July 28, 2014. A new online poll conducted by the nonpartisan research firm YouGov in partnership with the New York Times and CBS News shows Foley leading Democratic incumbent Dannel P. Malloy 42 percent to 33 percent.

Photo: Jessica Hill, AP Photo/Jessica Hill

Tom Foley, the endorsed Republican candidate for Connecticut...

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Tom Foley, the endorsed Republican candidate for Connecticut governor, center, speaks with Andrew Kowalski, left, as New Britain Mayor Erin Steward, right, looks on, as Foley greets diners in New Britain, Conn, Monday, July 28, 2014. A new online poll conducted by the nonpartisan research firm YouGov in partnership with the New York Times and CBS News shows Foley leading Democratic incumbent Dannel P. Malloy 42 percent to 33 percent.

Photo: Jessica Hill, AP Photo/Jessica Hill

Tom Foley, the endorsed Republican candidate for Connecticut...

Image 4 of 4

Tom Foley, the endorsed Republican candidate for Connecticut governor talks with local State Rep. candidate Edward Colon as he campaigns in New Britain, Conn, Monday, July 28, 2014. A new online poll conducted by the nonpartisan research firm YouGov in partnership with the New York Times and CBS News shows Foley leading Democratic incumbent Dannel P. Malloy 42 percent to 33 percent.

National political handicappers say they are reluctant to elevate Republican Tom Foley to favorite status over Gov. Dannel P. Malloy based on a new online poll commissioned by the New York Times and CBS News that shows the 2010 runner-up with a 9-point lead over the Democratic incumbent.

Conducted by the nonpartisan research firm YouGov from July 5 through July 24, the poll staked Foley to a lead of 42 percent to 33 percent over Malloy in a hypothetical rematch of their contest from four years ago.

But when compared to the two previous snapshots of the race taken by the in-state Quinnipiac University, a better-known barometer of public opinion, the poll is an outlier.

A Quinnipiac poll in May showed Malloy deadlocked with Foley, mirroring a March survey by the Hamden-based polling center, which relies on random digit dialing of registered voters.

"Something showing Foley up by almost double digits should give anyone pause," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter based in Washington.

Not factoring in the results of the latest poll was state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney, Foley's opponent in the Aug. 12 GOP primary.

The prevailing wisdom at Rothenberg and its peer, the Cook Political Report, is that the general election race is trending in the direction of Foley, who lost by less than 6,500 votes to Malloy in 2010.

"I think the governor's race in Connecticut is shaping up to be one of the Republicans' better opportunities around the country," Gonzales said. "It may not seem like a natural target state."

Both publications previously had the race, one targeted by both national parties, as leaning Democrat.

"It'll move," Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for Cook in Washington, said of her publication's rating.

Foley, a former U.S. ambassador to Ireland and private equity manager from Greenwich, greeted the results with cautious optimism.

"It's not inconsistent with what I'm hearing going around the state," Foley said. "People are very upset."

Foley said internal polling has showed him either tied or with a slight lead over Malloy.

"I'm not an expert on polls," Foley said. "It does seem to look a little more optimistically for us than the most recent Q poll."

A request for comment was left Monday with Malloy's re-election campaign.

McKinney, who trailed Foley by 30 points among GOP primary voters in May, dismissed the results.

"Leaving aside the fact that an online poll conducted by registration only on a national basis that admittedly doesn't use probability sampling is hardly a basis for anything but gossip, the YouGov.com poll tells us nothing more than that neither Tom Foley nor Dan Malloy have convinced voters that they can bring real change to Hartford," McKinney said in a statement.

London-based YouGov is a relative newcomer in U.S. politics, but made a splash in 2012 when it more accurately predicted President Barack Obama's margin of victory over Republican Mitt Romney than a number of well-established polling outfits.

But the methodology of its midterm election poll, which relied on 100,000 respondents across the 50 states using the Internet, generated some skepticism.

"Nobody knows yet. It's a big experiment," Duffy said. "It's the first time it's been done. I don't know it'll be determinative of any decisions that we make."

YouGov, which has offices in Waterbury and New York City, did not respond to a message seeking comment Monday from Hearst Connecticut Media.

In the U.S., 19 percent of people do not use the Internet, a statistic that critics of the poll say could lead to undersampling of senior citizens and minorities.

It's also unclear whether YouGov compensated participants, a practice it was reported to have used in the past. While most polls are conducted within two to three days, YouGov did its survey over a period of three weeks, which garnered some criticism.

Another 8 percent of the poll's respondents were leaning toward Malloy, compared to 6 percent for Foley.

In the latest poll, Malloy leads Foley 42 percent to 29 percent among women voters, with another 11 percent leaning toward the governor to just a 6 percent lean for Foley.

Among men, Foley leads Malloy 51 to 26 percent, with 6 percent leaning toward each of the candidates.

One of the big takeaways from the poll is Foley's lead among independents, 50 percent to 15 percent over Malloy, with 10 percent leaning toward the Republican and 7 percent leaning toward the governor.

Unaffiliated voters represent the largest bloc of the electorate in Connecticut.