Sunday, May 31, 2009

The report, released last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, projects that during this period the growth in energy consumption will be driven largely by the economies of developing nations.

Total world energy use in 2006 was 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu). In 2015 the number will rise to 552 quadrillion Btu and in 2030 it is projected to be 678 quadrillion Btu.

World oil prices are also expected to increase throughout this period. The report says oil will be $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) before rising to $130 per barrel in 2030. Looked at another way, total petroleum and other liquefied fuels, which were being consumed at a rate of 85 million barrels per day in 2006, will increase to 107 million barrels per day in 2030. About one-third of the 22 million barrels per day increase will come from OPEC countries while another 3.4 million barrels per day will come from non-OPEC countries. The balance of the increase will come from unconventional resources such as biofuels, gas-to-liquids, and oil sands.

Other highlights from the report:

"Renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of world electricity generation...From 2006 to 2030, world renewable energy use for electricity generation grows by an average of 2.9 percent per year, and the renewable share of world electricity generation increases from 19 percent in 2006 to 21 percent in 2030. Hydropower and wind power are the major sources of incremental renewable electricity supply."

"In [the report], which does not [take account of] specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030 -- an increase of 39 percent. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia."