Temperature Anomalies Time Series

Contents of this Section:

Introduction

Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. (2015). Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. The percentile map on the right provides additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed for a specific place and time period into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season or year compares with the past.

Supplemental November 2015 Information

Temperatures

In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the November 2015 and September–November 2015 maps—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

November

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2015 was the highest for November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), breaking the previous record of 2013 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). This marks the seventh consecutive month that a monthly global temperature record has been broken. The temperature departure from average for November is also the second highest among all months in the 136-year period of record. The highest departure of 0.99°C (1.79°F) occurred last month.

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.31°C (2.36°F) above the 20th century average of 5.9°C (42.6°F), the fifth highest November temperature on record. Most of Earth's land surfaces were warmer than average or much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above, with record warmth notable across most of equatorial and northeastern South America and parts of southeastern Asia. Parts of the western United States, southern Greenland, portions of northern Asia, and parts of southern South America were near to cooler than average. No regions were record cold in November.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

For the country as a whole, Austria experienced its seventh warmest November since their records began in 1767, with a temperature that was 2.6°C (4.7°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average. It was the third highest November temperature on record for the Austrian alpine regions, with an average departure of +3.8°C (6.8°F).

The United Kingdom observed its third highest November temperature since records began in 1910, at 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 1981–2010 average. Only 1994 and 2011 were warmer. A new daily high temperature record for the month of November for the UK was set in Trawsgoed on November 1st, at 22.4°C (72.3°F).

France had its third highest average November temperature since national records began in 1900, at 2.7°C (4.9°F) above the 1981–2010 average. The monthly average maximum temperature, however, was record highest for November, at 3.1°C (5.6°F) above average.

Switzerland also had its third warmest November, behind 2014 and 1994, with national records dating to 1864. Similar to France, the average temperature was 2.7°C above the 1981–2010 average.

With a temperature departure of +2.8°C (5.0°F), it was the third warmest November (tied with 1953 and 2014) for Denmark since its national records began in 1874. The average maximum was second highest while the average minimum temperature was seventh highest.

It was also warm in Spain, where the November temperature for the country was 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the 1981–2010 average. This marks the seventh warmest November for Spain since national record keeping began in 1961.

In Finland, November temperatures were up to 5°C (9°F) above the 1981–2010 average. On November 3rd a new record high November temperature for the country of 14.3°C (57.7°F) was recorded in Kemiönsaari.

Norway had a November temperature among its 15 warmest since national records began in 1900, at 2.8°C (5.0°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average.

The average monthly temperature across Australia was the third highest in the country's 106-year period of record, at 1.88°C (3.38°F) above the 1961–1990 average. The warmest November occurred last year. While no state or territory was record warm, the heat was spread across the country, with the highest departure of +2.22°C (+4.00°F) observed in Western Australia.

Canada was warmer than average in November. The average November temperature was up to 5°C (9°F) above normal in northern Ontario. Monthly temperature records were broken in North Bay and tied in Sault Ste. Marie.

Much of the United States was also warmer than average during the month, particularly in the central and eastern portions. The average November temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the 13th highest in the 121-year period of record, at 1.7°C (3.1°F) above the 20th century average. The state of New Jersey was record warm.

For the oceans, the November global sea surface temperature was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), the highest for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20°C (0.36°F). Strong El Niño conditions were present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during November 2015, as evidenced by record warmth across much of this region. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to remain strong through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16, and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during late spring or early summer 2016. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude, called the Niño 3.4 region.

In other major ocean basins, parts of the western North Atlantic, the Barents Sea in the Arctic, and much of the Indian Ocean were record warm. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) Index has been positive since early 2014 and appears to have peaked in early (Southern Hemisphere) spring as the strongest positive IOD since 2006. The Index declined sharply in November, though still remained positive. El Niño conditions and a positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole frequently co-occur.

Seasonal (September–November)

The September–November seasonal temperature was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marks the highest departure from average for the season in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.21°C (0.38°F).

The globally-averaged temperature across land surfaces was also the highest on record for September–November, at 1.27°C (2.29°F) above the 20th century average of 9.1°C (48.3°F). Most of the Americas from Mexico through the northern half of South America were record warm, as were scattered regions across Africa, southern and southeastern Asia, and southern Australia, as shown by the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Southern South America and parts of central Asia were near to cooler than average. No land areas observed record cold temperatures for the September–November period.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia observed its second warmest spring since national records began in 1910, at 1.65°C (2.97°F) above the 1961–1990 average. This is just 0.02°C (0.04°F) shy of the record set last year. The average minimum temperature for the month was the second highest on record, while the average maximum temperature was third highest. The states of Victoria and Western Australia each had their record warmest spring. Among all states and territories, only the Northern Territory's November temperature did not rank among its 10 warmest on record, although its minimum temperature was eighth highest.

For September–November, Austria was 0.7°C (1.3°F) warmer than its 1981–2010 autumn average for the period. The exceptionally warm November combined with the cooler-than-average months of September and October to make this the 23rd warmest autumn in the 249-year period of record.

The contiguous United States observed its warmest autumn on record, with a temperature 1.8°C (3.3°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 1962 by 0.2°C (0.4°F). Every state was warmer than average.

Across the world's oceans, the September–November average sea surface temperature was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20th century average of 16.0°C (60.7°F), the highest for September–November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.27°C (0.15°F). Record warmth was observed across most of the Indian Ocean, where a positive Indian Ocean dipole has been in place since early 2014, and across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, where a strong El Niño developed. Much cooler-than-average temperatures were observed south of Greenland in the North Atlantic and off the southern tip of South America, where one small area was record cold.

Year-to-date (January–November)

The first 11 months of 2015 were the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.14°C (0.25°F). Nine of the first eleven months in 2015 have been record warm for their respective months, with January second warmest for January and April third warmest. The December global temperature would have to be at least 0.81°C (1.46°F) below average—or 0.24°C (0.43°F) colder than the current record low December temperature of 1916—for 2015 to not become the warmest year in the 136-year period of record.

The average global sea surface temperature for the year-to-date was the highest for January–November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above average, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.09°C (0.16°F). The average land surface temperature was also record high, at 1.27°C (2.29°F) above average, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). Record warmth was most notable over much of South America, the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, much of the central western Atlantic, and most of the Indian Ocean. Nearly all of Eurasia, Africa, and the remainder of South America were much warmer than average, or within the top 10 percent of their historical records for their regions, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. The waters off the southern tip of South America and to the south of Greenland were much colder than average, with a pocket of record cold in that region of the Atlantic Ocean.

Precipitation

November

The maps below represent precipitation percent of normal (left, using a base period of 1961–1990) and precipitation percentiles (right, using the period of record) based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during November 2015 varied significantly around the world. November precipitation generally was drier than normal across southern Europe, much of Brazil, and parts of North Africa and southern Argentina, and wetter than normal across parts of the central and southeastern United States, northern Argentina, northern Europe, central Asia, and Japan.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

Not only was the weather very mild in Denmark during November, it was wet. The country saw its second highest November precipitation total since national records began in 1874.

Wetter-than-normal conditions observed in and around Mongolia coincided with cooler than normal temperatures and increased snowpack in the region.

Seasonal (September–November)

The maps below represent precipitation percent of normal (left) and precipitation percentiles (right) based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961–1990. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during September–November 2015 varied significantly around the world. Much of Brazil was drier than normal, which is typical during a strong El Niño.

Citing This Report

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for November 2015, published online December 2015, retrieved on December 9, 2016 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201511.