Previewing the Rule 5 draft

We’re hearing some buzz surrounding the Yanks’ first pick in tomorrow’s Rule 5 draft, so let’s take a look at what they’re saying.

First up is ESPN’s Jayson Stark, who says that the Yankees “are shopping the No. 1 pick in Thursday’s Rule 5 draft.” I doubt this happens. What they’d get in return probably wouldn’t outweigh the possible upside of the pick, so chances are they’ll just hold onto it. The only way I can see them dishing it is if they get back a player not on a team’s 40-man roster (and not Rule 5 eligible).

As for who they’ll take, FanHouse’s Frank Piliere thinks it will be Arquimedes Caminero. Piliere “scouted him extensively this year,” and it sounds like the pick has his blessing. The problem is that he’s 22 and pitched just 40.2 innings in relief last year, only 2.1 of which came as high as A+. Players can make that kind of jump, but it’s unlikely he’d stick.

Speaking of A+ ball players, Baseball America’s John Manuel lists a few names, including Jason Rice of the Red Sox. He throws gas and dominated A+, striking out 94 in 70 innings. He walked 41, though, which makes him an unlikely pick.

Manuel mentions two other names: Bobby Cassevah of the Angels, a ground ball machine (4.03 GO/FO ratio) who pitched to a 3.68 ERA in AA last season. Craig Baker is another name. He struck out 75 in 63 innings while closing games for the Rockies class A affiliate.

Chad Jennings likes Chad Tracy and Matt McBride, both of whom are right-handed outfielders who can play first base and catch. Mike mentioned Tracy in his Rule 5 post the other day.

Personally, I think it will be Yohan Pino. He’s more advanced than the other candidates who has displayed great control in the minors. He also owns a 1.15 WHIP. Then there’s Tommy Mendoza, also of the Angels, who also has good control.

We’re less than 24 hours from the draft. If the Internet permits, I’ll set up a chat tomorrow morning.

I’d definitely be on board if it were Pino. McBryde (the outfielder, not catcher) has some potential with his versatility and experience, especially as one of the few guys seemingly able to stick on a 25-man all year. Heck, even McBryde and Tracy seem to have the goods. Indians left a lot of guys unprotected.

Aneury Rodriguez, Chuck Lofgren are guys to look at as well.

A chat tomorrow would be neat.

Mike bk

Chad Tracy might be a decent bench bat and depending on what else we do could allow a melky/gardy trade.

Bo

Have you even heard of any of them before this post???

JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor

Not to get technical, but when the Bruney trade broke I dug up info on all Rule V prospects. So that was a few days ago. But even before that, I’d heard of Lofgren and Pino, though admittedly, it wasn’t a lot. The others…no.

Side-note: With the way Joe’s put guys in the LaTroy Hawkins Memorial Zone (i.e., Hawkins, Veras, Tomko, Melancon), it’s clear that he’s totally comfortable with a 7 man pen where 6 of the 7 men get 95% of the work and the last man sits in the corner, gathering dust.

This could work to our benefit. We could theoretically pull off what the Twins did with Johan Santana: Take a super-high upside guy who you KNOW is way too raw for the show, stick him in the bullpen aaaaaaaaaaaallthewayintheback and never use him except for super-super low leverage situations, then at year’s end, when the R5 roster restrictions are over, send him BACK to the minors for a few years to develop.

Thoughts? Gamble on the upside, and play with effectively a 24-man roster for a year because we’re hiding a diamond in the rough?

http://theyankeeway.mlblogs.com/ Keanu Reeves

If that guy is out there, sure why not?

JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor

TSJC is referring to Caminero. I don’t see it happening (though I wouldn’t necessarily object).

True. I’m not saying we’ll unearth a Santana. I’m just saying, maybe we should take the BPA, even if we think he needs more time in the minors and is too raw, with the intention of stashing him for a year and then sending him back down to get him that time in the minors.

Aim high.

All Praise Be To Mo

I agree, a johan type would be best case scenario, I guess I’d settle for a Joakim Soria instead

Salty Buggah

You guess? I would go crazy if we could somehow get a Soria. That would so awesome. Johan is the best-case scenario but Soria is probably 2nd best (unless you like J-Hamilton).

All Praise Be To Mo

I suppose next time when I say I’d guess I’d settle for the 2nd or 3rd best closer in the league instead of one of the top 10 starters I’ll make sure to put a bit of sarcasm in parentheses.

Rockdog

+1. Also, with the Yankees offense, there may be (hopefully) a bunch of low leverage situations to use said pitcher, as well.

thurdonpaul

can a rule 5 guy be put on the disabled list, then put in the minors for a while to re-hab ?

Time spent on the DL doesn’t work as an end-around to the year spent on the 25-man requirement. If you take a guy and stash him on the DL for a year, he has to spend the NEXT year on the 25-man roster as well.

thurdonpaul

even with a legit injury ?

Ed

Of course. You’re not allowed to put someone on the DL without some proof of a legit injury. Obviously teams bend the rules a little, but you can’t stick a guy on the DL and treat it like sending him to the minors.

I believe so, yes. If he misses, say, a month of the 2010 season with injury, he has to stay on the 25-man for a month of the 2011 season.

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.

Mike bk

as Axisa said below the threshold is 90 days on the active roster.

http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

On rehab, sure. If he spends less than 90 days on the active roster, the Rule 5 rules carry over to the next year.

Mike bk

but 30 days of that could easily be after the roster expands in sept.

Ted Nelson

Interesting.

JGS

the Twins lost 93 games in 2000. I don’t know if a contending team can afford to waste a roster spot like that

Ed

Keep in mind that for various amounts of time, the Yankees used roster spots on Ransom, Berroa, Veras, Tomko, Claggett, Jackson, etc. The pick just has to be more valuable than those guys. If he’s not more valuable than them, why pick him in the first place?

The 25th man on our roster, whomever he was during the 2009 season, barely played. Like, EVER.

DonnieBaseballHallofFame

I really think you can not do such a thing with a team going for a WS ring. Interesting idea, wrong year to put it into practice. We need all our spots for the geezers who will be getting half way hurt. No way we dont have more injury issues this year.

I like him too, so that when he strikes a guy out, I can scream “OH, SHIT, YOU JUST GOT AN ANEURYSM!!!!”

Mike bk

haha. and another A…Rod to the system.

Salty Buggah

Someone said this yesterdery but we can have:

A-Rod
Arod(Viz)
A-Rod (Aneury
Arold (Chapman)

Mike bk

maybe An-Rod for Aneury.

Andy in Sunny Daytona

Just wake up?

Salty Buggah

Nah, I had to wake up 4 hours ago to shovel the snow from 2 days ago. Then I went back to sleep and woke up like an hour or so ago.

JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor

That’s like…before noon. What’s happening to you?!

Salty Buggah

Heh, yea. I guess because break is almost over and now relaxing time is over. Time to get back to the gym and going out more (seriously, this past weekend, I think I only stepped out of the house like twice, only to shovel. It was snowing a lot but still. I think I even went almost 2 days without showering). I am very happy if I’m asleep by 3 and awake by 11 but that usually never happens. I sleep like at 4 or 5 and dont wake up until 2.

Salty Buggah

By almost over, I mean that it’s been 2 and half weeks since it started an and I have only 3 and half left.

Andy in Sunny Daytona

Take Jason Rice. 1st game of the season, have him drill Youkilis, send him back to Boston. Take the $25,000 and party all night.

Take Jason Rice. 1st game of the season, take out a $25,000 ad in the Boston Globe, publicly announcing that Jason Rice is going to drill Youkilis, in the ass, during that game. Have him drill Youkilis, send him back to Boston. Take the $25,000 and party all night.write off the advertising expense.

Andy in Sunny Daytona

Come to think of it , just keep him on the roster all year, he only piches against the Sox, and he drills one every game.

Is he the hardest thrower in the Sox system? Just take the guy who throws the hardest, whether he’s good or not. Designated bean-baller.

king of fruitless hypotheticals

I’m wetting my pants laughing so hard, and I approve this message.

when i read ‘jason rice red sox’ this is EXACTLY what i envisioned…

one small flaw…the globe (a la most print media)will prolly be out of business by then

JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor

Then maybe we can get an awesome reporter like Peter Abraham to replace Jack at the New York Times?

Too soon (and wrong)?

king of fruitless hypotheticals

soon: no.
wrong: yes.

:)

DonnieBaseballHallofFame

“Jason Rice is going to drill Youkilis, in the —, during that game”

You run the risk of making the Greek God of Walks rather happy.

JGS

best quote ever.

“I’ve seen Youkilis in the shower, and I wouldn’t call him the Greek God of anything”

–Terry Francona

All Praise Be To Mo

Greek God of Ugliness?

Roger

I don’t see any of these bums sticking none of these guys are as good as Nova was when the Padres took him from us last year and they ended up shipping him back to us. Out of all the guys eligible I’d probably take Kevin Whelan but hes ours. Oh well I guess I’d probably take Arquimedes Elcamino.

The first 24 guys on our roster are good enough that we can afford to carry a shitty 25th man. The Padres are in a different situation; they need to have the best 25 men on their roster at all times just to be competitive.

Ed

I disagree. Go back to opening day 2008. Trade the 25th player on the Padres for any player of your choice. Pujols, Mauer, Lincecum, etc. You still need a lot of luck for the Padres to finish in the playoffs.

I’d say the 25th man matters even less to them, as with any realistic option for that spot, they still miss the playoffs.

JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor

Yup. I agree with Ed. Their 20th best guy is probably our 25th best guy. But even beyond that, roster space is so valuable for good teams, particularly teams in the AL East, so that player needs to be able to play a role. When the margins between really good teams is so small, the 25th guy matters more than it would to a shitty team like the Nats or Padres. Because we’re a perennial Playoff-bound team, that last guy holds that-much-more value because of the short-series nature of the playoffs.

Chip

Yeah and Nova then went on to have an outstanding season for us and is one of the first guys that will get called up if we need a starter. I’d imagine the Padres wish they’d have given him a longer look

But this isn’t the same scenario. Nova wasn’t really doing well at that time. IIRC, he was bad for them in Spring training so they just sent him back because he would be useless. He had potential but thats all. He really broke out this past season.

Chip

Actually, would it be crazy to see the Yankees select two guys and try to keep the winner in the bullpen all year?

But the guy we trade would have like zero value since he has to stay on the active roster.

http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

I was thinking that for a minute, but that’s two dead roster spots through Spring Training.

AndrewYF

This is off-topic, but would anyone be disappointed if Montero had Javy Lopez’s career? On the cusp of the majors by age 21, defensively-retarded catcher who can hit over .300, doesn’t walk much, and has fantastic power.

Ghost of Scott Brosius

Not at all. Javy Lopez was an impact power bat, and while defensively subpar, still managed to play the position for a decade.

steve s

Is a veteran who was just desginated for assignment (which I think means he’s been removed from the 40 man roster) eligible to be taken in Rule 5 (thinking Ryan Church who ain’t half bad as a back-up outfielder).

Andy in Sunny Daytona

He’s not half bad, but he’s definitely 49% bad.

Mike bk

why would you take him Rule 5, he would be a FA in all likelihood who you could just sign.

king of fruitless hypotheticals

why would you do that? just call him, and say ‘hey, is this the ryan church that just got dfa’d as a BACKUP outfielder?’

and then he’d say ‘yes?’

then you’d say ‘this is Cash Money from the Yankees, and–‘

and then he’d say ‘Yes?!?!’

then you’d say ‘nothing…just wanted to let you know i wasnt wasting my Rule V draft pick when i could just sign you, but i’m not, so….kthxbai.’

then he’d cry.

which would make you a jerk :(

Andy in Sunny Daytona

Any Rule V minor league portion players look appealing?

A.D.

What exactly is the deal with that? Can you take any unprotected A ball player and put him in AA? What roster does he have to not be apart of to be eligible?

Andy in Sunny Daytona

I was just testing everyone’s knowledge. My ledge of know is way before that portion of the draft.

Thomas

From BA

There are Triple-A and Double-A segments of the Rule 5 draft, with price tags of $12,000 and $4,000 respectively. Minor league players not protected on the reserve lists at the Double-A and Class A levels are subject to selection, but almost no future big leaguers emerge from this process. It’s basically a tool for major league teams to fill out affiliates rather than obtain talent. However, the Giants found success in that route. In 2005, they took second baseman Eugenio Velez from the Blue Jays

A.D.

Ahhhh so there is some type of minor league reserve/40 man roster. Makes sense.

Andy in Sunny Daytona

I want names Thomas, give me the NAMES. I have ways for making you talk.

All Praise Be To Mo

Any thoughts on using this as a trade chip? A team like the Blue Jays (for Halladay) or the Cubs (melky + pick for Marmol) or various other scenarios could spare a spot for a high upside arm that we possibly couldn’t.

JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor

If we’re looking for an Aceves-type guy that can contribute right now as a spot starter, longman or just relief, Pino makes the most sense. If we’re looking for a LOOGY to replace Coke, we can definitely find a guy in Rule V.

Infielders are out of the question. An outfielder like McBryde (Giants CF), John Shelby (White Sox CF) could work, but they may have difficulty sticking on the roster. Catcher/1B with McBride and Tracy could work (I like Tracy more), but with the way our roster is presently constructed, having the 25th spot with a C/1B that can’t be moved may create a punch; a reliever makes more sense.

Carminero could hide on the 25-man if he’s used in low-leverage situations. His stuff would certainly play to the big leagues. But does he have the control/experience to stay on the 25-man? Besides, could stifle his development. Lofgren makes sense as a longman, relief guy and could be a LOOGY.

JMK, have you even HEARD of any of those guys before you wrote this?????????

/Lanny’d

Reggie C.

I enjoyed the BA writeup on Jason Rice. Rice, 23, is a fireballer who can hit 96. Pitched in High class A and struck out 94 in 70 innings. If the organization wants to grab some relief depth, Rice is a candidate.

Andy in Sunny Daytona

Plus….He’s Feared!!

Bo

Wouldnt be shocked if this pick is spun to another team for a piece they can stash in the minors.

Salty Buggah

I would be shocked because it’s unlikely some team would give up a nice piece for a rule 5 guy.