think it will pass. and it give, i think, some certainty on this specific question ofthedebtceilingandthe question of default, because we know from 2011, the adverse impact 2,000 points in the -- that the dow lost. we know the consumer confidence took a six-month hit because of the debt ceiling fight. so, to take that off the table as a big washington fight helps a lot, i think. >> certainly, the markets, a lot of people pointing to one reason, you have had a pretty nice string of gains here that debate, at least the deadline pushed back a bit. where does the conversation now begin when it comes to real reform? who instigate it is and how constructive do you think it's going to be? >> i think we can build upon some of the previous efforts. we had an agreement in 2011 which allowed us to reduce spending and we can do that again. at the end to of this year so the called fiscal cliff deal i think was further evidence when you get 89 united states senators voting for that end of the year agree respect, the deal was perfect and had all kinds of frustrations associated with it, but we h

the only problem with the suspendthedebtceilingandmake it go away, is a three-month part, suspend it. but the no pay, is getting misreported. i imagine this is part of the 27th amendment you point out, it is not no budget, no pay. if they don't pass a budget they don't get paid until the final day of the session. it is no budget, you get paid later. but you get all of your money kept in an escrow account, all handed to you on the last day of the session. it is not the same as no budget, no pay. just one more thing about the bill that is not quite on the level. >> and it is not actually a budget they're talking about. all they're talking about is each body talking about passing a resolution, which is not a law, and doesn't change anything. it is just a resolution, a promise to do something in the future. and the way they have written it, apparently ezra, if the senate passes one, then okay, the senate can get paid. if the house passes one then house members can get paid. but the 27th amendment very simply says no law varying the compensation of the services of senators and representat

,debtceiling. onthe other hand, despite all of that liquidity, we have mediocre employment growth, manufacturing data, while it has improved is still around that recessionary line of 50 and to your point around m2 that's very interesting and yet we're still at record low velocity of money. that's very scary. all this money pumped into the system is sitting on the balance sheets of banks, corporations. >> nominal gdp is starting to rise. >> slowly. >> what about the information revolution? now, you made an important point. so far why should raise taxes on investors, terrible idea. i'm hoping do no harm, maybe some small spending cuts so that's not going to be a factor. i don't see a debt default. i think that's off the table. what blt american energy revolution, what about the growth, what about the cheap natural gas and what about how that makes america so competitive? i'm only talking 2.5% growth, not 3%, 4, 5% growth. >> the fertilizer trusts are on fires. ammonia is going to be cheap, that's terrific. but here's a factoid for you. kmn's exports to asia are up 20% year on year.

withthedebtceiling, august20 11, our economy produced the lowest job growth in three years. during that two-month period, the dow jones plummeted 2,000 points including one of its worst single day drops in history, 635 points on, on august 8. s&p downgrade the u.s. credit rating for the first time in history. leading republicans in june, 2011, criticized the notion of a short-term debt ceiling increase as providing a lack of certainty. the majority leader said, i quote, we feel very strongly that one of the reasons we continue to see an ailing economy is that people have very little confidence, have very little senchity in terms of where we are headed, end of quote. and our ways and means chairman echoed that feeng only days later, saying aut the prospect of a short-term debt ceiling increase, in quote, it does not give you certainty. this bill does not give certainty but uncertainty. the action we took new year's day to avoid the fiscal cliff brought our total deficit reduction over the past two years to $2.5 trillion. what's more, it set the stage for future further balanced agreements th

the difference here is unlikethedebtceilingwhichhas the huge, global third party implications whether the government refinances itself, this is an invention of congress. they've decided please, tie my hands so i don't do it again. i do think therefore there's flexibility in whether they defer it or somehow play it some other way. >> bill: michael our guest finance writer for yahoo. all of this revolves, of course around the debt and the deficit. isn't it also true that we've made significant paydowns of the debt now and that's not -- so big, right but not as serious a problem as it was a year ago. >> this i think is kind of the under tone. it is not being talked about loudly. i do think it is the context for a lot of decisions. no debt has gotten paid down. we're running annual deficits. the absolute size of the government's debt gets bigger but the size of the deaf -- deficits have gone to under a trillion a year this year which no changes no effort really to actually do anything except for the economy to improve tax receipts to go up and you know, lower spending on sort of income su

. >> greta: every time we hit one of the mile posts, whether it's sequestrationordebtceiling, taxesgoing up, whatever it is, what happens is the solution is just to extend is somehow and create another hurdle in a certain period of time and when we get to that point we do it again. i mean. >> that's not the best way to do it. >> greta: is there ever going to be a finality to this. >> one way or the other because there will come a point where the debt will deal with us if we don't deal with it. no doubt it has to be dealt with, we would hope we would deal with it it before that point of crisis before we become europe or one of the places that scramble to deal with it that should been dealt with a long time. the president of the united states gave his inaugural address on monday and barely mentioned the national debt and the fundamental argument only way for the middle class and create prosperity in america is for the government to have more control over our economy, more taxes, more regulations, more spending. there's a fundamental difference between the president's view of our future and

they knew they were in trouble onthedebtceiling, andthen put the pressure on somebody else, namely the senate. but they are going to put forth a budget pretty soon that is really going to be an important % contrast for the american people to see. they are going to try to balance the budget in ten years, which you cannot do without slashing medicare and medicaid, and social security. so the american people will get, i think, a very good look at the way republicans want to balance the budget and do deficit reduction and the way democrats do. we actually went through this with paul ryan's budget which was so egregious the leader of his party had to back away from it in the campaign. >> stephanie: yeah, it was seen as sort of a slap at the senate but they are calling it the no budget, no pay idea. it has been regarded by a lot of people as a gimmick. here they go. it's a new way to play some sort of partisan games right? >> exactly. and it doesn't guarantee that there will be a compromised budget agreement between the house and senate. they can pass one, just as the

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