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Arctic Mirage

Having long exerted a powerful grip over the imagination of intrepid explorers, the Arctic region now beckons once again. New scientific reports have confirmed that its sea ice is fast retreating — on Friday a report published by a leading scientific journal argued that Arctic temperatures are now higher than at any time over the past 2,000 years — and this means that the exploration and exploitation of its natural resources is no longer just the stuff of dreams.

Some geologists feel sure that there are huge quantities of black gold lying north of the Arctic Circle. In May the U.S. Geological Survey announced that the region might harbor as much as 160 billion barrels of oil, which would amount to nearly a quarter of the world’s “undiscovered reserves.”

At a time when the price of oil is beginning to climb once again, these findings sound hugely important. But the truth is that they are likely to be completely unreliable.

Trying to find oil and accurately estimating its volume is supremely challenging in the best of cases, but in the Arctic it remains a virtual impossibility. Mapping deep and complex underwater rock formations takes considerable time, far more than the Arctic Ocean — much of it still frozen over outside late summer — currently allows. In such circumstances scientific “estimates” do not deserve to be called any more than the wildest of wild guesses.

This is why some “estimates” of Arctic oil show wild fluctuation. In the year 2000, the Geological Survey asserted that around 47 billion barrels of oil lie off Greenland’s shores, but eight years later it slashed that figure to a relatively meager 18 billion. And in May its scientists announced that reserves north of the Arctic Circle lie somewhere within a staggering differential — between “40 to 160 billion barrels.”

Alaska’s Arctic Wildlife Refuge illustrates what could easily happen across the wider region. Although one U.S.G.S. study estimated its reserves to be 10 billion barrels, exploratory drilling in the 1980s reputedly produced disappointing results and Big Oil quickly lost interest.

Unfortunately this experience is not likely to deter energy companies from pushing hard to find oil and gas elsewhere in the Arctic. But even just searching for oil in the pristine Arctic wilderness is often damaging enough. Some experts think that around a fifth of Norway’s undiscovered reserves lie in the idyllic Lofoten islands, a favorite destination for fisherman and well as tourists. Local fishermen have bitterly complained that scientific efforts to explore the area have been destroying stocks and depleting their catch.

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In Alaska and Canada, similar battles are being waged between the oil lobby and an alliance of Inuits and environmentalist groups. Until late last year, when a U.S. appeals court imposed a moratorium, ExxonMobil and Shell had stepped up their search for oil and gas in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, angering those who have long argued that the noise from drill ships and icebreakers, particularly the massive sonic booms used to send out sound waves that map the ocean floor, is very damaging to bowhead whales and other marine mammals.

Such a heavy environmental price might arguably be worth paying in return for huge quantities of commercially recoverable oil. But there is a real chance that such damage will be inflicted in vain. And such fruitless efforts would also distract the energy companies from other parts of the world, notably Africa and South America, where deposits of recoverable petroleum really do exist on a commercial scale and where they could be exploited at a far lower environmental and commercial cost.

Fortunately, in the Arctic or elsewhere, governments can put brakes on the drive to develop environmentally sensitive areas. They can grant drilling rights only if there is compelling geological evidence that oil is present, and the more sensitive the region, the higher the standard of proof needs to be.

Governments can also use their domestic tax regimes creatively. For example, they can offer concessions rewarding energy companies that look for opportunities in less sensitive parts of the world while penalizing the development of more precious areas.

And if drilling is ultimately deemed to be necessary, then its impact on local wildlife and ways of life can be subject to continuous and rigorous assessment.

Such steps do not offer any guarantees, but they will at least minimize the risk of destroying a wilderness region in pursuit not of black gold, but fool’s gold.

Roger Howard is the author of the forthcoming book “The Arctic Gold Rush: The New Race for Tomorrow’s Natural Resources.”