Another Asian Fukushima Imminent?

Taiwan imports 99 percent of its energy, which is vital to its rapidly industrializing
economy.

The island nation's electricity demand was recently growing at almost 5 percent
per year, but this is slowing to about 3.3 percent per annum to 2013. Nuclear
power has been a significant part of the electricity supply for two decades
and now provides 17 percent of the country's overall energy needs.

But this has come at a potential cost. The country's three nuclear power plants
(NPPs) comprise four General Electric boiling water reactors and two Westinghouse
pressurized water reactors.

Taiwan launched its nuclear power project in 1972 with the construction of
a General Electric boiling water reactor (BWR) at the Chinshan 1 Nuclear Plant
in northern Taiwan. By 1985 Taiwan had a total of six reactors online at the
Chinshan, Kuosheng and Maanshan NPPs, which provided nearly 20 percent of
the island's power that fueled Taiwan's economic take off. The NPPs are operated
by the Taiwan Power Co. (Taipower) utility under the Ministry of Economic
Affairs.

In the wake of the 11 March Fukushima nuclear catastrophe in Japan, Professor
Chan Chang-chuan of National Taiwan University's College of Public Health
noted that Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants and a fourth, the one now
under construction, are located in earthquake-prone regions near the sea,
which originally facilitated the transportation of nuclear fuel and construction
materials but leaveS the sites facing the double hazards of earthquakes and
tsunamis. Chan said, "Such locations expose our reactors to a double risk."

All six of Taiwan's existing reactors are built near major fault lines, and
two more reactors are under construction at the advanced boiling water reactor
(ABWR) Longmen NPP in New Taipei City's Gongliao District. On 31 October Taiwan's
Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-shiang said that the Longmen facility
is expected to enter commercial operation no later than 2017.

Now the issue of the country's NPPs has entered the arena of the country's
upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for 2012. All three of Taiwan's
presidential candidates agree that the life of the country's three operational
nuclear power plants should not be extended, but are divided on whether construction
of the Longmen NPP should continue.

Capturing the high ground, on 3 November Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou
unveiled the government's new nuclear energy policy, promising to gradually
move the country towards a nuclear-free future, announcing that the scheduled
40-year service life of the Chinshan, Kuosheng and Maanshan nuclear plants
would not be extended, while the New Taipei City Longmen NPP would only begin
commercial operations when all necessary safety requirements were met. Ma
said, "This new energy policy is crafted in a proactive, practical and responsible
manner in keeping with the principles of no power rationing, maintenance of
stable electricity prices and continued reduction of carbon dioxide emissions
to meet international goals."

Going Ma one better, on 15 December Opposition Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) Chairwoman candidate Tsai Ing-wen declared that if she wins next year
she will close all three of Taiwan's existing nuclear power plants and mothball
the Longmen NPP, seeking to end Taiwan's nuclear energy program by 2025 and
candidate number three, James Soong of the People First Party, favors not
extending the service life of the three existing NPPs but favors a 'wait and
see' approach on the Longmen NPP. The Chinshan NPP license expires in 2018-2019,
Kuosheng in 2021-2023 and Maanshan in 2024-2025.

The policy represents a significant turnaround in Taiwan's commitment to nuclear
power, as in May 2009 Taipower was examining the prospects for six more reactors,
starting with the Longmen NPP.

Therefore, the only remaining question is whether the South China Sea's notorious
weather patterns will remain benign over the next 14 years. If not, according
to Wang To-far, economics professor at National Taipei University, "if a level-seven
nuclear crisis were to happen in Taiwan, it would destroy the nation."

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