It's one thing to have a contrary opinion. It's another to have an outlandish opinion with no facts or reason to support it.

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Originally Posted by phlysac

I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.

Justin Smith has missed about 3 games in 12 years. He has played in 189 out of 192 games. Its a much more reasonable assumption that he will continue to have a very healthy career. Yes he is aging and he had an injury last year, but he has been very healthy overall.

The 49ers aren't perfect at every spot, but they are still one of the most talented in the league. I would like to see 10 teams more likely times to have a better defense this year, and no the Lions don't count.

Justin Smith has missed about 3 games in 12 years. He has played in 189 out of 192 games. Its a much more reasonable assumption that he will continue to have a very healthy career. Yes he is aging and he had an injury last year, but he has been very healthy overall.

Because what happens in the past is a perfect replica of what happens in the future, right?

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The 49ers aren't perfect at every spot, but they are still one of the most talented in the league. I would like to see 10 teams more likely times to have a better defense this year, and no the Lions don't count.

Again, to me, dominant defense is all about the DLine. I look at teams that have dominant DLine players, and in the near future, will have a chance to plug decent guys into the secondary. Building a secondary is not hard to do when you have dominant DLinemen. The 49ers have exactly ONE dominant DLinemen, and he's an older player on the decline physically.

I could easily see the Rams (Long, Quinn, Brockers), Lions (Suh, Fairley, drafting DE high this year probably), Cowboys (Ware, Spencer, Ratliff, Crawford), Giants (Pierre Paul, Jenkins, Joseph, Tuck), Browns (Rubin, Taylor, Sheard, Wynn), Seahawks (Bennett, Clemons, Irvin, Bryant, Mebane, Avril), Chiefs (Poe, Hali and Houston), Ravens (Ngata, Dumervil, Suggs, Upshaw), Bengals (Dunlap, Atkins), Texans (Watt, Reed, Mercilus), Broncos (Miller, Wolfe, Knighton), Panthers (Hardy, Johnson, guy they draft), Packers (Matthews, Perry, Raji, Worthy) all having better defenses than the 49ers in the near future. All of these teams have better DLinemen, even if the LB and/or S situations are unsettled. I'd rather have the team with the better DLinemen because LB and S play is less important and generally more easily manufactured and developed.

All of the DLinemen and pass rushers I listed in parenthesis are players that I feel are better futures bets as being dominant players for teams. I love Justin Smith in 2008-2012 for the 49ers. Best 3-4 DE in the game by far. But in 2013-? I'd take all of the guys I listed in parenthesis over that Justin Smith.

Because what happens in the past is a perfect replica of what happens in the future, right?

Again, to me, dominant defense is all about the DLine. I look at teams that have dominant DLine players, and in the near future, will have a chance to plug decent guys into the secondary. Building a secondary is not hard to do when you have dominant DLinemen. The 49ers have exactly ONE dominant DLinemen, and he's an older player on the decline physically.

I could easily see the Rams (Long, Quinn, Brockers), Lions (Suh, Fairley, drafting DE high this year probably), Cowboys (Ware, Spencer, Ratliff, Crawford), Giants (Pierre Paul, Jenkins, Joseph, Tuck), Browns (Rubin, Taylor, Sheard, Wynn), Seahawks (Bennett, Clemons, Irvin, Bryant, Mebane, Avril), Chiefs (Poe, Hali and Houston), Ravens (Ngata, Dumervil, Suggs, Upshaw), Bengals (Dunlap, Atkins), Texans (Watt, Reed, Mercilus), Broncos (Miller, Wolfe, Knighton), Panthers (Hardy, Johnson, guy they draft), Packers (Matthews, Perry, Raji, Worthy) all having better defenses than the 49ers in the near future. All of these teams have better DLinemen, even if the LB and/or S situations are unsettled. I'd rather have the team with the better DLinemen because LB and S play is less important and generally more easily manufactured and developed.

All of the DLinemen and pass rushers I listed in parenthesis are players that I feel are better futures bets as being dominant players for teams. I love Justin Smith in 2008-2012 for the 49ers. Best 3-4 DE in the game by far. But in 2013-? I'd take all of the guys I listed in parenthesis over that Justin Smith.

You do realize the 49ers play a 3-4, meaning that having 1 elite player and 2 solid players is actually really good...

You show me a 3-4 team with all 3 of their lineman being elite

*And to mention your I would take so and so over Smith... you are comparing apples to oranges.

A 3-4 lineman will never have the stats or glamour that a 4-3 DE or DT will have, its not their role.

I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.

Still trying to figure out who the rest of your "so called majority" key contributors (outside of Justin Smith) to our defense that are on the severe decline ? Also trying to figure out how you can say the days of the dominant defense are over before the San Francisco 49ers Invitational errr NFL Draft has even taken place ?

A load of NFL "experts" have been talking about how this team has the ability to become "dynasty" with all the young talent we possess, and given the number of draft picks in our pocket.

The average age of our defense is 26 and in a few short weeks it will be even younger.

DL - 1 player on this position group is over 30.
LB- ZERO players over 30. One player just turned 29.
DB- 2 players over 30.

So that is 3 players on defense who are over 30. THREE FREAKING PLAYERS. Yet the majority of key contributors are on the "severe decline" ? Puff Puff Pass.

My problem is he's under-selling McDonald quite a bit. In 2011, McDonald and J. Smith were the best bookend 3-4 DE tandem in the league. McDonald was one of the highest graded 5-Techs that season. He fell off that production in 2012 but he still had a solid year.

The weakest link on our D-Line is now in Philly. His long term replacement has yet to be drafted. But honestly, we could put a UDFA out there and he could give us what Sopoaga gave us last year...nothing.

In a even front though, McDonald and J. Smith inside are still a formidable duo. If we could attain some depth to keep them fresh throughout the year, they'll be even better moving forward. That process already started with the Dorsey signing. The draft should yield more talent and bodies to add to the mix.

I actually like the 49ers defense a ton but I could see them falling off, I mean they already did last year. 2012 was nowhere near as dominant as 2011 and Justin Smith was probably the biggest reason.

I see weaknesses with their pass rush and their secondary which is a terrible combination. It all depends on how Aso plays, what they do to replace Gholston and if Justin Smith can replicate 2011. Depending on who replaces Gholston, it could be better for that defense. They have enough big hitters, they need more coverage. Even if Smith does find the fountain of youth, they desperately need another pass rusher. If they fix those things they'll be top 3, if not, I could see them sliding out of the top 10.

But I'm not picking them to drop out. It's not too smart to make proclamations like this before the draft, especially when the 49ers have a bajillion picks. If they add a situational pass rusher (Aldon v2) they'll be fine.

I actually like the 49ers defense a ton but I could see them falling off, I mean they already did last year. 2012 was nowhere near as dominant as 2011 and Justin Smith was probably the biggest reason.

I see weaknesses with their pass rush and their secondary which is a terrible combination. It all depends on how Aso plays, what they do to replace Gholston and if Justin Smith can replicate 2011. Depending on who replaces Gholston, it could be better for that defense. They have enough big hitters, they need more coverage. Even if Smith does find the fountain of youth, they desperately need another pass rusher. If they fix those things they'll be top 3, if not, I could see them sliding out of the top 10.

But I'm not picking them to drop out. It's not too smart to make proclamations like this before the draft, especially when the 49ers have a bajillion picks. If they add a situational pass rusher (Aldon v2) they'll be fine.

Alot of ppl say this. Even in our own fanbase. Truth is, the defense finished second in the league in FO defensive efficiency rankings. The year before, they finished 3rd. If we go by just regular total defense rankings, we were 3rd in the league in 2012, surrendering 294.4 yards a game....in 2011 we were 4th in total defense, surrendering 308.2 yards a game.

Our run defense did slip from 1st in the league in 2011, giving up only 77.2 yards a game to 4th in 2012, allowing 94.2 yards a game. But our pass defense jumped from 16th in 2011, to 4th in 2012, giving up 30 yards less a game.

Now our sack total dropped...from 42 in 2011 to 38 in 2012. And our scoring defense went up to 17 a game, versus 14 a game in 2011. But is that enough to say we weren't as dominant?

We weren't as dominant as a run defense, but overall we were more efficient and better overall than we were in 2011. I think we were so dominant against the run in 2011 that ppl attached that to our identity overall. But we became a more balanced defense in 2012.

We will definitely miss Goldson. No question. But Haralson coming back is huge, as he is a very good situational pass-rusher and an excellent depth guy along the edge. That's probably the one position on the team we can't afford ANY injuries, even to a depth guy like Haralson.

Gholston...Goldson...Gholston...Goldson...why is this so complicated for everyone on the internet? LOL.

A very subtle or even unintentional dig at Goldson? By associating him with Vernon?

And yes there is a difference, but not significant enough to get it out of the realm of pendantry.

I will take it ad infinitum. It is similar to worrying about mixing up Aaron Rodgers of football fame and Mister Rogers of neighborhood fame. Or is Aaron Rogers and Mister Rodgers? Do you know which is right?

A very subtle or even unintentional dig at Goldson? By associating him with Vernon?

And yes there is a difference, but not significant enough to get it out of the realm of pendantry.

I will take it ad infinitum. It is similar to worrying about mixing up Aaron Rodgers of football fame and Mister Rogers of neighborhood fame. Or is Aaron Rogers and Mister Rodgers? Do you know which is right?

Just seems weird that everyone gets his name wrong.

I never see folks misspell Rodgers though. And even if it was as frequent, it would make more sense because Rodger and Rogers sound the same. Gholston and Goldson don't. It's like confusing McNabb with McNugget.

Still trying to figure out who the rest of your "so called majority" key contributors (outside of Justin Smith) to our defense that are on the severe decline ? Also trying to figure out how you can say the days of the dominant defense are over before the San Francisco 49ers Invitational errr NFL Draft has even taken place ?

A load of NFL "experts" have been talking about how this team has the ability to become "dynasty" with all the young talent we possess, and given the number of draft picks in our pocket.

The average age of our defense is 26 and in a few short weeks it will be even younger.

DL - 1 player on this position group is over 30.
LB- ZERO players over 30. One player just turned 29.
DB- 2 players over 30.

So that is 3 players on defense who are over 30. THREE FREAKING PLAYERS. Yet the majority of key contributors are on the "severe decline" ? Puff Puff Pass.

The problem is that outside of Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers, Navarro Bowman, Patrick Willis, and Aldon Smith, NONE of the players are even remotely close to being difference makers or high level talents in any way.

And of that group of five players: Justin Smith and Carlos Rogers are older and in decline, Bowman and Willis play the least important position on defense, and Aldon Smith is good but I'm not sold on elite status and need to see him defeat one-on-one blocks himself without Justin Smith's help.

My problem is he's under-selling McDonald quite a bit. In 2011, McDonald and J. Smith were the best bookend 3-4 DE tandem in the league. McDonald was one of the highest graded 5-Techs that season. He fell off that production in 2012 but he still had a solid year.

The weakest link on our D-Line is now in Philly. His long term replacement has yet to be drafted. But honestly, we could put a UDFA out there and he could give us what Sopoaga gave us last year...nothing.

In a even front though, McDonald and J. Smith inside are still a formidable duo. If we could attain some depth to keep them fresh throughout the year, they'll be even better moving forward. That process already started with the Dorsey signing. The draft should yield more talent and bodies to add to the mix.

My God. You have to really be a homer to consider Ray McDonald anything but a "solid" player.

Ray McDonald was one of the best 3-4 run defenders on the line last season. I think Pro Football Focus ranked him first in that category with players who played more than 60% of snaps. What a bunch of homers they are down there.

McDonald isn't a Hall of Fame player, but he's a good player and is one of the best 3-4 ends in the league. Better than average that is for certain.

you dismiss Willis and Bowman like you have never seen them play. They make a huge impact on every game. It's obvious if you watch them play. McDonald isn't a top level guy but he is a good run defender and that is what you need out of a 3-4 DE .

You also act like the defense will be static over the next couple years and erode complely. They will draft some more good player. Aldon Smith will develop more into his tools and ability.

The problem is that outside of Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers, Navarro Bowman, Patrick Willis, and Aldon Smith, NONE of the players are even remotely close to being difference makers or high level talents in any way.

And of that group of five players: Justin Smith and Carlos Rogers are older and in decline, Bowman and Willis play the least important position on defense, and Aldon Smith is good but I'm not sold on elite status and need to see him defeat one-on-one blocks himself without Justin Smith's help.

Goodness. You keep backtracking and it's driving me nuts - probably more than it should.

You start this by saying the majority of key contributors are on the severe decline. Call me crazy, but that says starters to me. I don't know how you can't say the starting corners, Brown and Culliver aren't key contributors - but whatever.

You obviously pick and choose which posts to reply to - so I'll do my best to play your game.

Of the contributors to the defense that you deem worthy of mentioning - Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Aldon Smith - you only list 2 on the decline.

Which is still not the majority.

I'm not finished with the backtracking though.

This originated in the power rankings thread, as to why the 49ers shouldn't be ranked highly by some of the posters here. It then translated to a new thread about how the 49ers won't be in the top 10 this coming season.

In a reply to a direct question about that exact statement you again brought up FUTURE prospects of teams - as if the 49ers will sit on their hands and do nothing, while other teams will improve themselves. The starting point of the 49ers and Lions are drastically different (49ers defense is better in case you're confused) and if they both improve .... I hope you can follow that.

(for Lions fans - this is not an attack on your fanbase or your team, he was simply parading them around pretty heavily earlier)

So if you would:
1. Explain the key contributors - and the majority please.
2. Stick to your original thought - 2013 - stop forecasting excellence in 3 years for teams below the 49ers on defense - and nothing but doom and gloom for them. It's ignorant.
3. Admit you know nothing.

You can skip steps 1 and 2 and skip to 3 if you would like to save yourself time.