Régions

Axes thématiques

Project description

The Future Scenarios project has developed socio-economic and climate scenarios at regional levels as a tool for strategic policy planning and investment decisions. Through workshops and close collaborations with policymakers, the team has facilitated the adaptation and use of these scenarios, which help next-users establish more robust plans, policies and strategies and provide “no-regrets” options in the face of diverse futures.

Keys to the success of the CCAFS scenario project has been a focus on specific policies, plans and questions; openness and adaptability of the scenario method; and ensuring strong process ownership by decision-makers.

For instance, with support from the scenarios project team, the Ghanaian Ministry of Food and Agriculture organized a 3-day workshop with several other stakeholders to review the country’s livestock policy, using a scenario-guided approach. The West African regional scenarios were downscaled to be applicable at the national level in Ghana and then used to review the existing livestock policy for its robustness to various possible futures. A variety of recommendations were made by participants to help shape the country’s livestock plans moving forward.

In another example, the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, with support from the CCAFS scenarios team, finalized a Climate Change Action Plan that featured scenario-guided climate-smart agriculture investments, and capacity building on scenario-guided planning. Scenarios were also used to develop and test content for the Bangladesh Planning Commission’s 5 Year Plan.

Scenarios are also used to bridge policy levels: in Honduras, an agricultural climate adaptation policy was developed at the national level with the help of the scenario-guided process, and is since being adapted for implementation in sub-national regions, again using a scenario-guided approach. In Ghana, a process focusing on bridging gaps between policy levels, using multi-level scenarios, has been conducted, and scenario-guided policy processes are underway in Colombia, Burkina Faso, Tanzania and Uganda.

As CCAFS moves into Phase II in 2017 and beyond, the scenarios project will shift its focus toward more of an emphasis on food and nutrition security as part of an overall attempt to take a more systems-level view of policies and institutions.

With CCAFS support, diverse groups of stakeholders in six regions worldwide have created detailed scenarios picturing a range of possible futures for their regional climate, economy and society.

National policy makers are working with CCAFS and the University of Oxford to reimagine the future scenarios in the context of their own countries and policy goals.

Seven countries are using scenarios to test and revise major climate and agriculture initiatives.

By 2019, at least five national climate-smart agriculture/food systems policies have been finalized and are being implemented that have been developed and tested against scenarios to make them more robust in the face of multiple climate/socio-economic futures. At least five major regional/global organizations have used scenarios outputs and methodology in their priority setting and policy guidance.

From the project inception in 2010, over 240 different organizations, including major development partners, have participated in the CCAFS scenarios process, helping to create credible and collaborative evidence-based scenarios, which are now guiding decision-makers in all five CCAFS regions.

By the end of 2013, national and regional stakeholders in all five CCAFS regions were setting up processes, which employed CCAFS scenarios to develop adaptation and mitigation policies. By the end of 2014, one scenario-guided policy has been finalized; 3 more are close to finalization and at least 3 policies are the focus of new scenario processes.

The team works with multiple local and regional partners, including Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Cambodia, Ministry of Agriculture, of Livestock and Fisheries Development in Tanzania and in Uganda, the Ministry of Water and Environment and Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, the University for International Cooperation (UCI) in Costa Rica, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) in Colombia, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Aquaculture and Fisheries (MAGAP) in Ecuador, Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock in Honduras, the Bangladesh Planning Commission and the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD).

Gender

The project uses scenario-guided policy formulation as a way to make participation in policy processes possible for diverse stakeholders, including women and women's groups, and to include gender issues in planning.

Location

The scenarios are being used by decision-makers in East and West Africa, South and Southeast Asia, the Andes and Central America and by global actors.