THIS BLOG RATES THE S&P 500 BUY/SELL/OR HOLD EACH DAY WITH 2-GOALS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS: (1) PRESERVE CAPITAL (2) BEAT THE S&P 500.
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Thursday, April 24, 2014

INTIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP (Briefing.com)“The initial claims level increased to 329,000 for the
week ending April 19…continuing claims level fell to 2.680 mln for the week
ending April 12…In all likelihood, the low claims levels at the beginning of
the month were a result of seasonal biases and not a change in layoff
trends.”Story, charts and commentary
at…http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/claims.htmDURABLE GOODS BEATS EXPECATATIONS (Advisor Perspectives)“New orders for manufactured durable goods in March
increased $6.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $234.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau
announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 2.1
percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0
percent…[Doug’s comment:]…’In theory the durable goods orders series should be
one of the more important indicators of the economy's health. But its
volatility and susceptibility to major revisions of the previous monthly data
suggest caution in taking the data for any particular month too seriously.’”Commentary at dshort.com at…http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Durable-Goods-Orders.php

MOM AND POP INVESTOR RETURNING (CNBC)

“Discount brokerages TD Ameritrade and E*Trade Financial both reported sizable
trading volume jumps in the first quarter, an indication that retail investors
are getting more active. E*Trade reported 33 percent more volume, while TD
Ameritrade said it had witnessed a 30 percent rise in activity, according to a Wall
Street Journal report.” Story at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/101611794In the past, the return of the retail investor has been at the top.

MARKET REPORT

Thursday, the S&P 500 was UP about 0.2% to 1879 (rounded).VIX was UP about 0.5% to 13.34.The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained 2.69% at
the close.

The Bond Ghouls aren’t sure market problems have ended.

The S&P 500 has closed in the vicinity of 1880 about
8 to 10 times since 31 December.The
index has only closed above 1880 3-times
and then only about ½%-higher.It needs
to punch higher or the correction will be back.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE
declined to 55% at the close.(A number above
50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs outpaced
new-lows Thursday.The spread
(new-highs minus new-lows was +111.(It
was +129 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +4. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has INCREASED by 4 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
up-volume was falling as of Thursday.The
internals declined to neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late.They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.

NTSM

The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained
HOLD Thursday.Sentiment has fallen to
77%-bulls (5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected
Rydex/Guggenheim funds. This is a very high number, but on a statistical basis
Sentiment is now neutral.The VIX, Price
& Volume indicators are all neutral.

MY INVESTED POSITIONI increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks
on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive Monday (24 Mar) at
the close.I am watching closely to see
if it is time to reduce my long-term stock holdings.

Followers

About Me

I am an engineer with a lifelong interest in "playing with numbers" so what could be more fun than trying to develop a system that beats the stock market? Well, lots of things, but I decided to do this anyway.
While I am not a finance-professional, or professional investor, I have developed some skills.
I competed in two CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio contests finishing in the top 4% in 2008 (34,320th of 800,000) and the top 0.1% (448th of 500,000) in 2009. More importantly, I managed to sell out of my retirement accounts at or near the top in 2000 and 2007 and bought close enough to the bottom that I didn’t lose too much sleep. (Even Bill Gates lost SOME sleep.)
I hope that my thoughts will help you achieve your investing goals. Please remember that my ideas are free and there may be times when my ideas are worth less than what you paid.