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Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget on our WhatIf To Go page.

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Game of the Week: #23 Oregon 25 @ #21 Boise State 27
The college football season kicks off Thursday night with what shapes up as a classic in Boise on the blue turf. Big things will be expected from the winner of this game. Oregon is looking for revenge after a 37-32 home loss to Boise State last season. Winning on the road could be a huge boost to the Ducks' season. After this week, Oregon gets all of its toughest opponents - Utah, Cal, USC and Oregon State - at home. A victory could mean even more to Boise State. The Broncos likely need to go undefeated to make a BCS bowl game. Oregon is the only ranked team on the schedule. The Broncos' other non-conference games are against Miami (OH) (our #119 team nationally), Bowling Green (a middle of the pack MAC squad) and UC Davis (an FCS team). In conference, Boise State should cruise. The Broncos went undefeated in the WAC in 2008 with an average victory of 42-12. So much is on the line for both teams in the first college football game of the season.

The verdict? This should turn out to be a great game and is essentially too close to call. Very little has changed since our original Week 1 Preview, which predicted Oregon would win 51.2% of the time, yet had Boise State scoring more points on average. The homefield advantage must have kicked in a little more in these 10,000 simulations as Boise State takes the crucial contest 52.3% and by an average score of 27-25.

Other Notable Games in Week 1
Most of the biggest non-conference games of the season take place this weekend. Alabama and Virginia Tech will meet in the Georgia Dome and with the Hokies' top running back, Darren Evans, out for the season, the Crimson Tide becomes a prohibitive favorite, winning 85.6% of the time and by an average score of 21-9. Offensive juggernaut and 2009 Big 12 sleeper team, Oklahoma State, wins convincingly over the SEC's Georgia Bulldogs. The Cowboys average more than six touchdowns in winning 85.8% of the time and by a score of 43-27. Non-BCS contender BYU opens its bid for a perfect season and national recognition by traveling to our #3 team Oklahoma. The Cougars' dreams of playing David to the BCS' Goliath are crushed in a 45-17 rout that the Sooners win 95.0% of the time.

Notre Dame faces an early trap game when it hosts Nevada. While the Fighting Irish may be looking forward to Michigan, USC and others, the Wolf Pack brings a prolific offense running the unconventional "Pistol" spread. Notre Dame can't afford to overlook Chris Ault's squad. In the simulations, the Irish win just 58.9% of the time at home and by an average score of 28-23. Michigan could be in a similar boat. Using three quarterbacks in a game may work against an FCS opponent (not named Appalachian State), but Western Michigan appears to be the MAC's best. Right now the Wolverines are in a position where that should be considered good competition. Michigan wins just 53.9% of the time and by an average score of 22-19.

And, the Big East and ACC pictures get a little clearer right off the bat as Rutgers defeats Cincinnati (68.5%) and Florida State takes out Miami (77.0%) ... Auburn fans should thank me for not mentioning their game.

Week 1 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

Citadel @ North Carolina

95.0

5.3-34.9

Jacksonville State @ Georgia Tech

95.0

5.5-51.8

Middle Tennessee @ Clemson

95.0

7.5-27.4

Brigham Young @ Oklahoma

95.0

17.4-45.3

Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska

95.0

13.6-38.8

Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas

95.0

4.5-65.4

North Dakota @ Texas Tech

95.0

6.2-46.4

Northern Colorado @ Kansas

95.0

8.8-45.5

Indiana State @ Louisville

95.0

8.3-33.4

Liberty @ West Virginia

95.0

4.7-51.5

Wofford @ South Florida

95.0

6.7-37.8

Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh

95.0

6.1-38.3

Akron @ Penn State

95.0

8.7-44.0

Montana State @ Michigan State

95.0

5.5-33.0

Navy @ Ohio State

95.0

9.0-32.7

Northern Iowa @ Iowa

95.0

5.0-44.3

Towson @ Northwestern

95.0

7.1-25.5

Alcorn State @ Southern Miss

95.0

7.8-43.6

Appalachian State @ East Carolina

95.0

6.5-33.6

Northwestern State @ Houston

95.0

6.6-50.2

Nicholls State @ Air Force

95.0

6.5-39.8

Utah State @ Utah

95.0

6.6-37.1

Idaho State @ Arizona State

95.0

7.4-31.2

Portland State @ Oregon State

95.0

7.3-41.3

San Jose State @ USC

95.0

4.8-54.3

Charleston Southern @ Florida

95.0

2.7-70.6

Missouri State @ Arkansas

95.0

7.3-37.6

Western Carolina @ Vanderbilt

95.0

6.3-28.3

Western Kentucky @ Tennessee

95.0

4.1-39.6

Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas State

95.0

9.0-34.1

California-Davis @ Fresno State

95.0

6.7-30.8

Sacramento State @ UNLV

94.8

9.5-31.6

Maryland @ California

94.6

8.6-33.0

Richmond @ Duke

93.8

6.7-24.8

Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin

93.2

10.8-37.6

Northeastern @ Boston College

92.6

8.5-25.3

Southern Illinois @ Marshall

91.8

7.8-28.1

Jackson State @ Mississippi State

91.4

6.8-24.6

Southern University @ Louisiana-Lafayette

87.8

9.7-27.3

North Texas @ Ball State

87.4

11.6-28.5

William & Mary @ Virginia

86.8

6.5-23.2

Weber State @ Wyoming

86.6

7.5-21.0

North Dakota State @ Iowa State

86.4

13.0-28.2

Georgia @ Oklahoma State

85.8

26.8-42.6

Villanova @ Temple

85.4

7.6-21.8

Massachusetts @ Kansas State

85.2

8.3-23.5

Samford @ UCF

83.8

7.5-20.3

Coastal Carolina @ Kent State

83.0

11.3-26.7

Central Arkansas @ Hawaii

82.8

12.0-26.4

Central Michigan @ Arizona

81.4

14.8-28.4

Eastern Kentucky @ Indiana

80.8

9.5-22.8

Idaho @ New Mexico State

80.2

10.3-23.3

San Diego State @ UCLA

79.8

11.0-23.6

Miami (FL) @ Florida State

77.0

10.8-22.7

Buffalo @ UTEP

75.4

16.2-27.7

Missouri @ Illinois

73.3

24.4-34.2

South Carolina @ North Carolina State

72.5

11.6-19.7

Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Methodist

71.7

12.5-22.3

Cincinnati @ Rutgers

68.5

21.6-29.8

Nevada @ Notre Dame

58.9

23.1-27.7

Colorado State @ Colorado

56.9

18.6-23.2

Toledo @ Purdue

56.5

12.6-16.2

New Mexico @ Texas A&M

56.3

19.2-23.2

Western Michigan @ Michigan

53.9

19.0-22.2

Oregon @ Boise State

52.3

24.7-27.0

Rice @ UAB

39.0

29.3-27.1

Army @ Eastern Michigan

37.7

15.2-12.9

Troy @ Bowling Green

33.3

22.8-18.4

Connecticut @ Ohio

28.5

17.4-11.4

Baylor @ Wake Forest

26.5

25.5-18.0

Louisiana Tech @ Auburn

24.0

23.1-15.6

Alabama vs Virginia Tech

14.4

20.5- 8.9

Kentucky @ Miami (OH)

12.4

17.9- 6.6

Minnesota @ Syracuse

12.0

25.3-10.6

Tulsa @ Tulane

6.4

34.5-15.9

Mississippi @ Memphis

5.0

47.2- 9.4

LSU @ Washington

5.0

47.6- 7.6

Stanford @ Washington State

5.0

38.8- 7.8

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!