Deal climate still unclear at talks on warming

Emissions formula debate bogs down attempts at deal

BONN — The 180-nation United Nations Climate Change Conference limped along with little visible sign of progress on how to combat global warming despite a Sunday deadline for an agreement.

The most difficult issue blocking an agreement was over "sinks," the same issue that wrecked the last climate conference in The Hague in November.

"Sinks" is conference parlance for forests and agricultural land that absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the dispute is over the extent to which such land should be counted toward meeting targets of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in each country.

Dutch Environment Minister Jan Pronk, the conference chairman, selected a core group of 35 nations, representing each of the key blocs in the meeting, to try to hammer out a compromise on this and other issues by Sunday. Although the conference runs until next Friday, government ministers who are key to getting an agreement only plan to remain in Bonn through Sunday, and many of them are expected to leave on vacation immediately afterward.

Doubts deal forthcoming

Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Herb Gray said Friday he doubts there would be a deal this weekend. A failure would leave the issues to be decided during the next climate conference at Marrakech, Morocco, in October.

The protagonists in the current disputes are the countries of the so-called Umbrella Group, Canada, Japan, Australia and Russia, which seek broad authority to use sinks to meet targets under the Kyoto protocol negotiated in Japan in 1997, and the 15-nation European Union, which wants tight limits on sinks.

The United States was formerly part of the Umbrella Group but dropped out of the Kyoto negotiations in March, when President Bush declared the protocol was "fatally flawed."

A dispute between the United States and the EU over sinks caused the failure of The Hague conference in November.

With clear reference to the Umbrella Group, EU spokesman Marc Pallamaerts of Belgium said: "We think some countries are effectively trying to renegotiate Kyoto targets through an overly generous interpretation of sinks."

Other points of contention

The EU and the Umbrella Group also are at odds over compliance with implementation of the Kyoto treaty. The Umbrella Group favors voluntary compliance, but the EU insists that implementation must be rigidly enforced and penalties meted out to those failing to meet their commitments.

"Rather than a law without a penalty, it is better not to have a law," said Belgian Energy Minister Olivier Deleuze, head of the EU delegation.

EU committed to project

Pallamaerts said EU ministers have confirmed a "strong commitment" to meeting a fair share of a $1 billion fund to help developing countries deal with global warming and offset its effects by using technology.

Had the U.S. remained in the Kyoto process, its share of that fund would have been roughly $250 million. Some Europeans have expressed resentment that the U.S. withdrawal will leave them with a bigger share of the cost.

But Deleuze said EU heads of state were not interested in turning the Bonn conference into a quarrel between the EU and Washington. EU officials said they still hoped to bring the United States "back on board" but had no specific plan for achieving that goal.

One of President Bush's arguments for withdrawing from Kyoto was that it would have seriously damaged the U.S. economy.

But scientists serving on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who have done exhaustive studies on the issue, disputed that Friday.

Using emissions trading

They estimated that implementing Kyoto provisions would reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 0.1 to 0.9 percent by 2010. The United States could hold down its costs, they said, by relying on emissions trading, which involves buying emissions quotas from countries such as Russia, whose emissions are well below Kyoto targets because of its poor economic performance.

The scientists said the cost to the world economy of meeting Kyoto targets would average 0.1 percent annually.

They have warned repeatedly that long-term economic damage from global warming would be much greater.

Lawmakers weigh in

Four Democratic lawmakers said at a news conference that the EU and Japan should take the lead in working out an agreement in Bonn that would bring pressure on the Bush administration to change its stance on the Kyoto plan. They spoke from Washington in a conference call arranged by the National Environmental Trust.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) said there was a "real sense of discomfort and even embarrassment" in the United States over Bush's position.

"He has made the U.S. into a kind of renegade nation," said Lieberman, Al Gore's running mate in the 2000 presidential election. "There is a growing bipartisan consensus in Congress to do something about global warming."

The other Democratic participants were Sen. Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico and Reps. John Olver of Massachusetts and Robert Menendez of New Jersey.