The four busiest days of the offseason have arrived. Well, the three busiest days, really, because everyone heads home Thursday morning after the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 Winter Meetings begin today at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, and, as always, there will be a ton of trades, free agent signings, and rumors these next few days. Lots of rumors. Lots and lots of rumors.

The Yankees have already had a fairly active offseason. They traded for James Paxton and re-signed both Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, most notably, and they’ve also brought in some depth options like Hanser Alberto, Tim Locastro, and Parker Bridwell. The Yankees still need another starter though, plus a Didi Gregorius middle infield replacement and bullpen help. Brian Cashman’s work is far from done this offseason.

“Obviously, we have a number of things to accomplish that I consider heavy lifting. We need to fill our club out. Usually most things get concluded by the end of the Winter Meetings based on the last two years,” said Cashman to George King recently. “Things have dragged out longer, but for the most part, now momentum will kick in for everybody — players, agents and clubs. Hopefully we will be in position to improve ourselves, but part of this is having patience. We don’t want to make a mistake and rush this process. If it takes longer, it takes longer. Optimally, you would like to get something done between now and the conclusion of Vegas.”

The last time the Winter Meetings were held in Las Vegas the Yankees left town with a newly signed CC Sabathia and momentum toward a deal with A.J. Burnett and having started discussions about a deal with Mark Teixeira. I can’t say I expect the Yankees to be that active again this year — that was one of the largest free agent spending sprees in baseball history — but I do expect them to be busy this week. There’s still a lot of needs that have to be addressed.

As we do every year, we’ll keep you updated on the latest Yankees-related rumors in this one handy post throughout the day. The Winter Meetings are in the Pacific Time Zone this year, so we East Coasters may have to wait a little longer than usual each morning for everyone in Las Vegas to wake up and start cranking out rumors. Anyway, make sure you check back through the day for updates. Here’s the latest (all timestamps Eastern Time):

5:54pm: Brian Cashman more or less shot down speculation the Yankees could sign Bryce Harper to play first base. “The Harper stuff, I’m surprised you are still asking,” he said. Cashman did admit he’s “had several conversations” with Manny Machado‘s agent, though not in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings. [Bryan Hoch, JoelSherman]

4:35pm: The Yankees have considered Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed as they look for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They’ve had interest in him before. Ahmed is a fantastic defender and he discovered some power this year, but he’s still a below-average hitter. The D’Backs aren’t expected to part with Ahmed for anything less than a big overpay, so forget that. [Brendan Kuty]

2:06pm: The Yankees are aiming high in Sonny Gray trade talks and asked the Reds about top prospect Taylor Trammell. MLB.com ranks Trammell as the 17th best prospect in baseball. Hey, you’ll never got Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask. [Joel Sherman]

12:38pm: Unlike Harper, Manny Machado will travel to meet with teams in their cities. That all but guarantees he will not sign during the Winter Meetings this week. I could see Machado’s and Harper’s free agencies dragging out into January. [Bob Nightengale]

12:17pm: The Yankees and Padres remain in contact about Sonny Gray. San Diego doesn’t have much MLB talent to offer at this point — Matt Strahm would be nice, though I’d bet against it — so, if a trade does happen, it figures to be Gray for prospects. [Jon Morosi]

11:52am: “Industry buzz” says the Yankees want to limit a potential J.A. Happ contract to two years. He’s shopping around for a three-year deal this offseason though. Always remember to take these secondhand “industry buzz” rumors with a grain of salt. [George King]

11:30am: The Yankees will meet face-to-face with Bryce Harper at some point this week. Harper lives in Las Vegas, which is convenient. We haven’t heard the Yankees connected to Harper much this offseason and I suppose it’s possible this week’s meeting is just due diligence since everyone will be in the same place at the same time. [Jeff Passan]

11:30am: In addition to Harper, the Yankees will also meet with Manny Machado at some point. I’m not sure if it’ll be during the Winter Meetings or later. They will not bid $300M to get him, however. If that’s true, the Yankees almost certainly won’t get Machado then. Either he’d have to take a deep discount or his market would have to collapse for that work. [Jon Heyman]

11:30am: The Yankees have interest in free agent multi-position players Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison. Both would fit as a Gregorius replacement though one (Gonzalez) is much more desirable than the other (Harrison) in my opinion. [Jon Heyman]

The Yankees are looking for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson, and the market it flush with potentially appealing options. I recently wrote about Kelvin Herrera and Andrew Miller, both of whom are coming off of injury-abbreviated campaigns; today I’m going to discuss a couple of relievers coming off of more productive seasons in Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino.

Jeurys Familia

2018 Stats – 3.13 ERA, 27.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 46.3 GB%, 3.13 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Familia spent the first six and a half years of his big-league career as a Met, serving as the team’s closer from 2015 through the end of his New York tenure; he was dealt to the A’s at this past trade deadline, where he served as a high-leverage fireman instead of a traditional closer. And he excelled in both roles, maintaining above-average strikeout and groundball rates, and an average walk rate. None of his peripherals are particularly jaw-dropping, but there isn’t a glaring weakness in his profile, either.

The 29-year-old is essentially a sinker/slider pitcher, with those offerings representing around 80% of his overall pitches. He’ll also mix in a four-seamer and the occasional splitter (which is devastating, but has never represented more than 8% of his pitches in a year), depending on the handedness of the batter and what he’s feeling. And Familia throws everything hard:

Familia’s velocity has remained fairly steady from year-to-year. He’s lost about 1 MPH from his peak fastball velocity – but it was over the course of four years, so it’s not a terribly worrisome sign. And his sinker and slider are his go-to offerings anyway, and both of those have actually ticked up. We know that velocity can disappear rather suddenly, but there aren’t really any warning signs thus far.

It is worth noting that Familia has dealt with two injuries in his career, both of which required surgery. The first was a bone spur removed from his right elbow back in 2013, which kept him out for a few months. And the second was surgery to remove an arterial blood clot from his right shoulder in 2017, which sidelined him from mid-May through the end of August. Neither is necessarily predictive of future injury, but having surgery on your throwing elbow and throwing shoulder cannot be overlooked.

And, being as diplomatic as possible, there are potential character issues off the field, as well. Familia was suspended for the first 15 games of the 2017 season due to domestic violence accusations, and had to undergo at least twelve 90-minute counseling sessions. I do not want to editorialize something of this nature, so I will leave it at that.

So what will Familia cost? MLBTR predicts a 3-year, $33 MM deal, and FanGraphs similarly went with 3-years, $30 MM. Having been dealt mid-season, there are no draft pick considerations. He has that closer shine, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up with a deal in that range.

At that sort of price, I don’t think that Familia is a great fit for the Yankees. I’m all for the team spending big this off-season to capitalize on their window, but I wouldn’t get in a bidding war for someone that another team views as a closer. The Yankees are ostensibly looking for their third and fourth relievers, behind Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, which is somewhere between a luxury and a necessity; I see it as enough of the former that I wouldn’t go beyond two years for Familia. And his off the field issues make me a bit hesitant, as well.

Adam Ottavino

(Chris Coduto/Getty)

2018 Stats – 77.2 IP, 36.3 K%, 11.7 BB%, 43.0 GB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP

At first blush, those are some straight-up droolworthy numbers. A strikeout rate 14 full percentage points above league-average? A 2.43 ERA and 2.74 FIP in Coors?! That’s kind of bonkers, isn’t it? Even with the walks, you cannot help but be impressed with Ottavino.

A bit more digging, however, doesn’t leave you as enthusiastic about his merits. Here’s his 2017 line – 53.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 16.1 BB%, 37.2 GB%, 5.06 ERA, 5.16 FIP. That’s just about as bad as one can get, even with the comfortably above-average strikeout rate. In short, Ottavino was as bad in 2017 as he was awesome in 2018.

I have seen 2017 explained away, in part, by Ottavino’s Tommy John Surgery. However, that surgery came in 2015, and Ottavino returned in the Summer of 2016, showing little to no rust. If anything, you’d expect him to be even better in 2017 – not to post by far his worst season since his cup of coffee debut way back in 2010. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to have an uncommonly bad year; especially relievers, who are notoriously fickle. But it can’t be hand-waved, either.

There are signs that his 2018 wasn’t just random fluctuation, though. Ottavino essentially shelved his four-seamer this year, replacing it with sinkers and cutters:

And, like Familia, his high-end velocity has remained relatively steady, with the decline coming slowly:

And all of that was on purpose, as Ottavino explained to Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs. The Brooklyn native worked out at a vacant commercial property in Manhattan throughout that off-season, utilizing Driveline tech to help him hone his craft. Put that all together and you have something of a career year. The big question, of course, is whether that’s maintainable.

Ottavino, unlike many Rockies pitchers, doesn’t show an appreciable home-road split on the mound. He was actually better in Coors in 2013 and 2018, and performed similarly in 2017. Escaping that park will undoubtedly be a plus, but there’s not necessarily a ton of hidden value there.

The biggest concern with Ottavino, at least to me, is his age. He turned 33 in November, and both MLBTR and FanGraphs project a 3-year, $30 MM deal (which MLBTR actually sees him signing with the Yankees). I can somewhat buy 2017 being an aberration, and I am on-board with him rebuilding himself in the 2017-18 off-season – but he’s at an age where regression can come abruptly and viciously.

Ottavino is an obvious fit for the Yankees, as a guy that racks-up strikeouts and lives in the area (and apparently loves it). I love his determination to rebuild himself after a horrific season, as well, and it’s a great sign that it worked so well. I’m hesitant about a longer deal at his age – but I prefer him to Familia. And, again, at two years I’m definitely in.

When Patrick Corbin agreed to his six-year contract with the Nationals last week, the Yankees missed out on the best chance to add a pitcher who’s demonstrated top of the rotation ability for nothing but cash this offseason. Dallas Keuchel has a Cy Young to his credit but it’s been a few years since he pitched at that level. Charlie Morton had ace moments this year before finishing the season hurt. J.A. Happ? He’s fine. That’s about it. Fine.

The Yankees have already added one starter with top of the rotation ability in James Paxton and, to make it happen, they had to trade prospects. They’ll have to trade prospects (or big league players) to get another pitcher of that caliber. They’ll have to trade players and find a willing trade partner, which isn’t always easy because high-end starters rarely hit the market. Those guys are crazy valuable and teams try to keep them as long as possible.

Fortunately, one such trade partner exists, and they have two top of the rotation starters to peddle. Earlier this offseason the Indians indicated they’re willing to entertain trade offers for their starters and, in the wake of Carlos Carrasco’s incredibly team-friendly extension, Ken Rosenthal reports Cleveland will trade either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. Not may trade, will trade. The Indians need to get their payroll in order and the rotation will be the casualty.

Kluber is excellent and has been for years now. Bauer really came into his own this past season before a comebacker broke a bone in his leg in August and forced him to return as a reliever late in the year simply because there wasn’t enough time to get him stretched back out as a starter. An unfortunate fluke injury through and through. Kluber is the big name here but is Bauer the better trade target? Let’s compare the pros and cons.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s younger

Five years younger, in fact, and that’s significant. Bauer turns 28 next month and Kluber will turn 33 in April. Kluber, as good as he is, has started to show some signs of decline, specifically in his fastball velocity and his slider whiffs-per-swing rate. Bauer is trending in the other direction. He’s on the way up. And, even if you think 2018 was Bauer’s peak, his age theoretically makes him a better bet to maintain that level of performance going forward than Kluber. I’m not sure either guy offers more upside than the other, but Bauer does have age on his side.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s more luxury tax friendly

Not only is it two years of control (Bauer) vs. three years of control (Kluber), the luxury tax calculation favors Kluber the next two (and likely three) years, albeit slightly. Here’s the salary comparison:

Bauer is arbitration-eligible the next two years and that creates some cost uncertainty. If he repeats his 2018 numbers in 2019, he could easily end up with $20M+ in 2020. Kluber’s salaries and luxury tax hits are locked in. His take home salary will exceed Bauer’s next year but his luxury tax hit will be about the same, and he’ll almost certainly that the lower luxury tax number in 2020, and the Yankees seem more concerned with the luxury tax payroll than actual money spent.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s on the upswing

Prior to the leg injury this year Bauer made 25 starts and threw 166 innings with a 2.22 ERA (2.38 FIP) with average ground ball (44.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates and an excellent strikeout rate (31.5%). In the second half last season Bauer threw 83.2 innings with a 3.01 ERA (3.68 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.5%) rates. That’s after a 5.24 ERA (4.06 FIP) in the first half. Look at this:

We’ve seen a lot of random one-year aces. Esteban Loaiza in 2003 is the gold standard for random one-year aces and, in recent years, others like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero had their moments as one of those “oh wow he’s an ace now … nevermind” guys. The fact Bauer’s breakout dates back to last year suggests this is more than a fluky one-year blip. He’s a soon-to-be 28-year-old former top prospect entering his prime. That’s a good time to get a guy, you know?

Reason to trade for Kluber: Bauer has some home run regression coming

The single biggest reason for Bauer’s improvement this past season was his sudden ability to limit home runs. From 2014-17, he ran a 1.09 HR/9 (11.9% HR/FB) rate. That is more or less league average. This past season Bauer managed a 0.46 HR/9 (6.2% HR/FB). Hmmm. Put him in Yankee Stadium and the AL East and his home run rate will inevitably climb because that’s the environment.

It’s also likely Bauer will experience some natural homer regression because almost no one is a true talent 6.2% HR/FB pitcher. Batted ball data goes back to 2002 and, among the 444 pitchers to throw at least 500 innings since then, Mariano Rivera has the lowest homer rate at 6.5% HR/FB. The lowest by a starter belongs to Jason Schmidt (7.6% HR/FB). The lowest by an American League starter belongs to Justin Verlander (8.6% HR/FB). So either Bauer’s true talent is suddenly the best home run suppressor of the last 16 years or he’s in for some home run rate correction next year. My money’s on the latter.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’ll probably come cheaper

An additional year of control combined with a much longer track record of excellence suggests it should cost more to acquire Kluber. That said, Kluber is older, and the market will be driven by supply and demand more than anything. Also, Bauer will be cheaper in 2019. The luxury tax hit will be similar, but in terms of actual salary, Bauer will be cheaper. I still think the extra year of control and track record points to Kluber fetching a greater return. I guess we’ll find out.

Bauer is very outspoken and he has a knack for saying dumb things. It is part of the Trevor Bauer experience. You don’t get to pick and choose the pieces you want. You get the whole package. MLB has suspended Bauer’s Twitter account on at least one occasion, likely because he told a fan to “quit life,” and every few weeks he says something dumb and controversial. About baseball, about politics, about whatever. In Cleveland, those things blow over quickly. In New York? Nah. Bauer’s a very talented pitcher but also an obvious headache. Kluber is anything but. He is business-like to the point of being boring, and the Yankees like boring. Any team that pursues Bauer will ask themselves “how much nonsense are we willing to live with to get a great pitcher?”

* * *

Rosenthal says the Indians are not interested in attaching a bad contract (like Jason Kipnis) to one of their starters to unload salary. Whichever starter they deal, the Indians want to maximize that starter’s trade value and get as much young talent as possible. They want to make a baseball trade, not a payroll trade. Good for them. I mean, it sucks they have to trade a starter for payroll reasons in the first place, but at least they’re going to focus on talent.

The fact Bauer is younger and entering what should be his prime makes him a more attractive trade target than Kluber, who’s almost certainly already had his best years and is theoretically about to enter his decline phase. That Bauer might not cost as much to acquire is icing on the cake. Kluber will be more luxury tax friendly going forward, albeit slightly, and he undoubtedly would not be as much of a distraction, and those are points in his favor. The New York media would have a field day with Bauer.

With the Yankees having missed out Corbin, they’ll have to trade players to get an impact pitcher now, because that clear-cut high-end starter does not exist in free agency. Happ is fine, Keuchel lost a lot of strikeouts and ground balls this year, and Morton ended the season hurt. Kluber and Bauer are on the short list of the best pitchers in the game and both are available, apparently. The Yankees should of course check in on both guys, and Bauer just might be the better option at this point.

They’re talking about winning the World Series in the Bronx. (Getty Images)

The Yankees did not sign this year’s top free agent starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin will instead have six tries to help the Washington Nationals win their first playoff series. Many Yankee fans, myself included, believed that Corbin represented the Yanks’ best path to creating a dominant rotation—but the reality is that he was never the only option. The Indians are reportedly “increasingly motivated” to move Corey Kluber (and another very good but not-to-be-named starter) and the Yankees should do everything they can to acquire him.

That will not be easy. The Yankees once stacked farm system has depleted significantly over the last several years—and even if that depletion was foralloftherightreasons, it significantly complicates any effort to trade for an ace. But it is not impossible. If the Yankees decide to flex their financial muscles and sign Manny Machado, it will make available precisely the type of talent needed to trade for a pitcher of Corey Kluber’s status. Let’s break this one down step-by-step.

Signing Machado

Dreaming of NYC. (Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The case to sign Machado, of course, is a simple one to make. The 26-year-old should be one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history, boasting a career .282/.335/.487 (120 wRC+) line in just over 4,000 plate appearances. Like Bryce Harper (who they should also sign), he is just now entering his prime—meaning he should, in theory at least, be as good as he’ll ever be in the next four seasons or so.

That alone should put him on every team’s radar. The fact that he has posted a wRC+ greater than 130 in three of the last four seasons (with the fourth being a down year in 2017 that was clearly an outlier) ought to only sweeten the deal. In each of those seasons, he has hit at least 33 home runs. And last year, when he hit .297/.367/.548 (141 wRC+) with 37 home runs, was the most productive of his career.

Machado is about as good as it gets offensively. Defensively, the story is a bit murkier—but it doesn’t have to be. He switched positions from third to short in 2018 with mixed results. He struggled with the analytically-inept Baltimore Orioles but, if the data is to believed, he seemed to benefit from better positioning in Los Angeles. As a third baseman, though, Machado is as impressive a defender as I can remember seeing, an observation supported by most defensive metrics.

Even though he prefers shortstop (his natural position), Machado is reportedly willing to shift back to the hot corner if it meant playing in the Bronx. That is exactly what the Yankees should insist, and not just the Yanks are loaded with groundball pitchers and struggle with infield defense. Doing so would also allow the Yankees to slide Gleyber Torres to short until Didi Gregorius returns while slotting Machado in at third—opening up Miguel Andújar to be the centerpiece in a package for a top-shelf starting pitcher like Corey Kluber.

Saying Goodbye to Miggy Mantle

Don’t worry: you’ll be reunited at the ASG. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The case to trade Andújar, unlike signing Machado, is a bit more difficult to make. Miggy Mantle burst onto the scene in 2018, hitting .297/.328/.527 (128 wRC+) with 27 home runs in just over 600 plate appearances. His ability to make hard contact on almost any pitch and drive it is a rare offensive skill—and it is the reason why he hit so many balls for extra bases in 2018. Andújar quickly became one of my favorite Yanks, and it is hard to imagine what the 2018 squad would have been like without Andújar’s steady performance.

But that does not mean that it would not make sense to say goodbye. Andújar’s defense is a work in progress to put it kindly, and that was enough to have him be replaced in the 6th (!) inning of the Wild Card Game this October for defensive reasons. That the team didn’t start or pinch hit him in the deciding game of the ALDS suggests that these worries may run deep in the front office—even if that decision, in my opinion, was an obvious tactical blunder.

Andújar will start 2019 at age 24—but Machado will begin the season at age 26. In fact, replacing Andújar with Machado is one of the few ways where the Yankees would get a significant defensive upgrade in the infield without sacrificing any offensive value, and Machado is an even better hitter than Andújar to boot.

Miggy’s trade value figures to be about as high as any player in the league—any 23 year-old who put up those offensive numbers at the league minimum salary will get teams interested. Even with his obvious defensive warts, another team may see a way to improve his defense at the hot corner, or perhaps they see a future for him in left field ala Ryan Braun or at first base. But in any case, Andújar is the type of talent who commands a large return.

Welcoming Corey Kluber

His number has some meaning. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

The pertinent question, now, is if a package based around Andújar would be enough to entice Cleveland to say goodbye to one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 32-year-old ace has won two of the last five AL Cy Youngs—finishing no lower than 3rd in overall voting with one win in the last three years—and it is clear why. Since 2014, Kluber has posted a 2.85 ERA (152 ERA+) with a 2.84 FIP over 1091.1 innings. He has struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that with less than 2 walks per 9 innings across that stretch, with a WHIP just barely over 1. There are few signs of decline: he is just one of the best pitchers in the league.

If Cleveland will be cheap enough to ship him off in a trade while in the middle of their own (alleged) title run, then the Yankees should simply do everything they can to bring him to the Bronx—even if that means trading one of the league’s most exciting young pieces. Cleveland has a very good infield as it is, but they did just trade for Josh Donaldson last year, so they have been willing to add offense to that infield as recently as last summer.

On the Yankees side, the need is obvious. Adding Kluber as the final piece of a rotation that already includes Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia would position the Yankees to have a truly dominating staff in 2019 and 2020. To me, that’s easily worth the haul it would take to get him, which would likely be Andújar+. Always trade your prospects for dominating starting pitchers. Just look a bit to the north to see why.

Will it Happen?

To sum up, this plan involves shelling out a significant sum of money (likely more than $300 million) on Manny Machado and then turning around and trading one of their most exciting young (and thus cheapest) players. It still isn’t clear that the Yankees are willing to take on that much salary—though Kluber would be a steal at his current contract, especially compared to Patrick Corbin.

But what is clear is that this path is out there and isn’t that far-fetched. The Yankees have always had interest in Machado, and he’d take all of the sting away from losing Andújar. Meanwhile, the team would be in a position to get a starting pitching upgrade beyond any of our wildest dreams even eight weeks ago.

As Yankee Twitter’s Thought Leader and Official Friend of RAB™ put it the other day, a path like this is really the easiest and most straightforward way to create a roster that would likely be the World Series favorites on Opening Day. And if the Yankees spend as they can, they have the chance to add two prime-aged generational talents alongside one of the league’s best starting pitchers to their already loaded roster. It’s been a decade since the Yankees have won the championship, and now the only thing standing between them and their best shot since 2009 is Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness to spend.

The hot stove is starting to get real hot, folks. Within the last week we’ve seen Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz get traded to the Mets, Jean Segura land with the Phillies, Patrick Corbin sign with the Nationals, and Nathan Eovaldi re-sign with the Red Sox. The Winter Meetings begin next week and already some Very Big Things have happened.

The Cardinals got in on the action earlier this week when they acquired Paul Goldschmidt, arguably the best first baseman on the planet, from the Diamondbacks for youngsters Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly, prospect Andy Young, and a competitive balance draft pick. Kelly’s a personal favorite, but I’m not sure there’s a future stud in that package. Seems more quantity over quality.

Anyway, St. Louis plans to put Goldschmidt at first base (duh) with Matt Carpenter shifting back to third base, where he has been a consistently below-average defender in his career. This isn’t quite moving Miguel Cabrera to third base to accommodate Prince Fielder, but it’s close. The Cardinals will live with the defensive hit at third to add Goldschmidt to the middle of their lineup. I would too.

Adding Goldschmidt gives the Cardinals a surfeit of infielders. They have Goldschmidt and Carpenter on the corners, Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong up the middle, Jedd Gyorko and Yairo Munoz on the bench, and top 20 organizational prospects Ramon Urias, Max Schrock, and Edmundo Sosa all slated to return to Triple-A next season. Infield depth is good. Gotta have it.

St. Louis has enough infield depth that trading an infielder to address other roster needs is doable if not inevitable. Gyorko is believed to be the most expendable — that was the case even before the Goldschmidt trade — and that makes sense seeing how he’s the oldest and most expensive among the non-starters. Spending $9M on a bench guy might be too much even for the Cardinals.

The Yankees need an infielder to replace Didi Gregorius, and now that Goldschmidt presumably makes Gyorko even more expendable than he was coming into the offseason, I think it makes sense for the Yankees to reach out to St. Louis about a trade. Another right-handed hitter doesn’t help balance the righty heavy lineup, I know, but Gyorko brings other stuff to the table makes up for it. Let’s talk this out.

1. The Yankees have had interest in Gyorko in the past. Specifically at the 2015 trade deadline. Jon Heyman reported the Yankees offered then top prospect Jorge Mateo to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel and Gyorko, but San Diego said no. Gyorko’s contract was underwater at the time. It was one of those “we’ll take on that bad contract if you give us that good player” trades a la Cano/Diaz. The Padres dumped Gyorko on the Cardinals a few weeks later and he turned his career around. St. Louis got good value from the contract. Point is, Gyorko was on New York’s radar at one point.

2. Gyorko can hit. Not exceptionally well but at an above-average rate. Over the last two seasons Gyorko has produced a .268/.343/.447 (111 wRC+) batting line — his wRC+ in his three years with the Cardinals: 112, 112, 110 — with good walk (10.3%) and strikeout (20.6%) rates, and 31 homers in 883 plate appearances. He’s annihilated lefties (150 wRC+) and been league average against righties (98 wRC+). A solid if not serviceable bat.

The downside here is Gyorko’s declining contact quality. His ISO has dipped from .253 to .200 to .154 the last three years and the contact he’s made suggests that’s no fluke. The numbers:

Exit Velocity

Hard Hit Rate

Barrel Rate

xwOBA

2016

87.7 mph

36.1%

10.2%

.342

2017

86.5 mph

31.4%

8.2%

.332

2018

87.3 mph

31.3%

7.6%

.322

(Here’s the definition of a Barrel. In a nutshell, it is the best possible contact in terms of exit velocity and launch angle. The MLB average barrel rate is 6.1% of plate appearances.)

A clear downward trend. The Yankees love their exit velocity, they fully buy into it as an evaluation tool, and Gyorko might not meet their standards. He is more or less league average (and trending down) when it comes to driving the ball. The walks and the on-base skills and the ability to mash lefties are nice, and hey, unimpressive contact quality doesn’t necessarily rule Gyorko out as trade candidate. It’s just something to be considered.

The bottom line here: How comfortable are the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) projecting Gyorko to be an above-average hitter in 2019? Can he maintain the 110-ish wRC+ he’s posted the last few seasons another year? If he declines, can he still be league average? Steamer projects Gyorko has a .248/.321/.421 (103 wRC+) hitter in 2019, for what it’s worth. That seems like something you can live with from an eighth or ninth place hitter.

3. He can play all over the infield. Gyorko is a third baseman by trade and and a good one at that. Good enough that the Padres and Cardinals have been comfortable playing him at second base and even shortstop. Over the last three seasons he’s been a +6 DRS defender at second and a +24 DRS defender at third. Shortstop didn’t go so well (-3 DRS) and I wouldn’t want him playing there full-time anyway. In a pinch? Sure. Full-time? Nah.

The Yankees could stick Gyorko at second base while Gregorius is out with Gleyber Torres shifted over to shortstop. Then, when Gregorius returns, the Yankees could either move Gyorko to third base (his best position) and move Miguel Andujar elsewhere, or use Gyorko as a utility guy who plays all around (he’s also played some first base). That’s something you worry about when the time comes though. For now, Gyorko can capably step in at second base while Gregorius is sidelined. That’s the key here.

(Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

4. The money works. Holy cats does the money work. Including the $1M buyout of his $13M club option for 2020, Gyorko will be paid a total of $14M in 2019. Do you know what his luxury tax hit will be in 2019? $920,000. Well, it’ll be $916,666.67 to be exact, but yeah. Gyorko will have a six-figure luxury tax number next season. Let me explain.

Back in the day the Padres signed Gyorko to a six-year contract worth $35.5M. The average annual value of that contract (and thus luxury tax hit) is a mere $5,916,666.67. Let’s call it $5.92M to make life easy. The Padres were so motivated to unload Gyorko three years ago that they agreed to pay $2M of his $6M salary in 2017, $2.5M of his $9M salary in 2018, and $5M of his $13M salary in 2019.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement makes this clear: Any portion of a player’s salary paid by another team is subtracted from his luxury tax hit in that season. You just can’t receive credit against the luxury tax if the salary paid by the other team exceeds the player’s luxury tax hit. (There’s a special provision for opt-out clauses. That’s why things work differently for Giancarlo Stanton and the $30M the Marlins will pay him down the road.) Here’s part of the relevant text from Article XXIII(C)(2)(b)(iii) of the CBA:

Any cash consideration that is included in the Actual Club Payroll of the payor Club shall be subtracted from the Actual Club Payroll of the payee Club in the same Contract Year in which it is added to the payor Club’s Actual Club Payroll. Notwithstanding the foregoing, an assignee Club may not receive an aggregate credit against its Actual Club Payroll(s) for cash consideration received in an assignment that exceeds the sum of (a) the total amount of the acquired Player(s) Salaries that are included in the Club’s Actual Club Payroll(s) following the assignment, and (b) any cash consideration paid by the assignee Club to another Club in a subsequent assignment of the acquired Player(s) that is attributable to those Players.

The $5M the Padres are paying Gyorko in 2019 is subtracted from his $5.92M luxury tax hit, hence the $920k luxury tax number for 2019. Pretty cool, huh? This means nothing to the Cardinals because they won’t come close to the $206M luxury tax threshold next year. It’d mean a lot to the Yankees though. If the Yankees trade for Gyorko, they’d owe him $9M in real money ($13M salary plus $1M buyout minus $5M from Padres) but he would only count $920k against the luxury tax payroll, and that’s the number the Yankees seem to be most focused on.

(The low luxury tax number makes it an easy move to back out of too. If the Yankees trade for Gyorko and he stinks, releasing him and eating a $920k luxury tax hit is much easier to swallow than releasing a guy making $5M or something like that. It’d be a relatively low risk move.)

5. What would it take? This is always the hardest part. I honestly have no idea. The Padres traded a mid-range prospect (Enyel De Los Santos) to get one year of Freddy Galvis last offseason. The Blue Jays traded two mid-range prospects (Jared Carkuff and Edward Olivares) to get one guaranteed year of Yangervis Solarte plus two club option years last offseason. Do those trades work as benchmarks for a Gyorko trade? I dunno.

The money could be a significant factor in a potential Gyorko trade. The Cardinals opened each of the last three seasons with a payroll in the $150M range and right now, after the Goldschmidt trade, they’re at $149.5M when you include projected arbitration salaries and all that. St. Louis might be very motivated to unload the $9M in Gyorko and thus willing to salary dump him for a minimal return. If not, giving up a mid-range prospect or two (Nick Nelson? Garrett Whitlock?) would be a-okay with me.

* * *

I should note that keeping Gyorko would make sense for the Cardinals. Carpenter is a poor defender at third and Gyorko would be a good defensive caddy. Wong could also play his way out of the lineup again, which has happened a few times over the years. That would open up second base for Gyorko. The Cardinals want to contend and keeping Gyorko as a (expensive) bench piece might not be a bad idea, especially because he mashes lefties and Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana, Josh Hader, and Felipe Vazquez all pitch for division rivals.

For all I know the Cardinals might be willing to up payroll next season in an effort to win the NL Central or at least get back to the postseason as a Wild Card team. They have a lot of money coming off the books next winter (Gyorko, Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha, Luke Gregerson) and it could be they’re open to running a high payroll in 2019 before getting things back in order in 2020. I dunno. If not, and Gyorko’s salary stands in the way of doing other things this winter, I think the Yankees would be smart to swoop in and try to work out a trade.

A few weeks ago, Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman that the Yankees are looking to add two relievers this off-season. That makes quite a bit of sense, considering that two of the team’s biggest name relievers in Zach Britton and David Robertson hit the free agent market; moreover, the league-wide increase in reliance upon the bullpen all but began in New York, meaning this is nothing new. And, luckily, there are plenty of quality arms on the market to reinforce the arms at Aaron Boone’s disposal.

We will eventually get to the majority of the high-end relief options on the market (barring players signing before we have the chance to get to them), though we will avoid the players that are locks to secure a closing role and, therefore, closer money. And I’ll kick-start that effort today by taking a look at two of the highest-ceiling commodities on the market, that just so happened to battle injuries last year.

Kelvin Herrera

2018 Stats – 44.1 IP, 20.7 K%, 5.4 BB%, 35.6 GB%, 2.44 ERA, 3.95 FIP

The 28-year-old Herrera was a member of the vaunted Royals bullpen that helped them reach back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015, throwing a combined 139.2 innings of 2.06 ERA ball in the regular season. And he was even better in the playoffs, pitching to a microscopic 1.26 ERA in 28.2 postseason innings. He hasn’t quite pitched at that level since, but a 3.18 ERA (138 ERA+) over the last three years is still quite good, to say the least.

Last season, however, was a tale of two seasons for Herrera, revolving around the mid-June deal that sent him from Kansas City to Washington. Take a look at his splits:

KC – 25.2 IP, 23.2 K%, 2.1 BB%, 37.1 GB%, 1.05 ERA, 2.69 FIP

WAS – 18.2 IP, 18.0 K%, 9.0 BB%, 33.9 GB%, 4.34 ERA, 5.68 FIP

That’s … not encouraging. Though, for better or worse, there is something of tangible reason for this drop in productivity. His velocity remained mostly steady, but did dip a bit post-trade:

And his release points were all over the place:

And we also know that he was battling an undisclosed shoulder injury – referred to as ‘tightness’ – whilst in our nation’s capital. It seems as if health was the issue.

Of course, the elephant in the room isn’t that he didn’t perform well with the Nationals; it’s that Herrera still isn’t completely healthy. His season ended in late-August due to a Lisfranc tear, and his timetable for return is up in the air. There are several reports out there saying that Herrera and his representatives expect him to be ready for the start of the season – but they kind of have to say that, right? The only real information that we have is that he started doing some light throwing the other day, courtesy of his Twitter feed:

That’s encouraging, even if it’s off flat ground and at way less than maximum effort.

With all that in mind, what will he cost?

MLBTR projects a one-year, $9 MM pillow contract for Herrera; Jim Bowden predicts a similar deal, albeit for $11 MM. And, unless he proves to be completely healthy or teams believe that he’ll be ready for a full Spring Training, I think that makes sense. And he wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to being dealt in-season, so there’s no hidden cost, either.

So does he make sense for the Yankees? I think so, especially if it’s a one-year deal. He has a terrific track record, and he was great before his shoulder started barking last year. The flyball tendencies that he developed in 2018 aren’t great – but it didn’t hurt Chad Green or Jonathan Holder or Adam Warren last year. A healthy Herrera should be expected to thrive in any environment.

Andrew Miller

Hello, old friend. (Ron Schwane/Getty)

2018 Stats – 34.0 IP, 29.2 K%, 10.4 BB%, 47.7 GB%, 4.24 ERA, 3.51 FIP

On the off-chance that you need a refresher, Miller was arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball from 2013 through 2017, pitching to a 1.82 ERA (234 ERA+) in 291.2 IP. That 1.82 ERA ranked third among all relievers in baseball in that stretch, and his 291.2 IP ranked 30th. Add in a ludicrous 41.1 K% (2nd) and 33.7 K-BB% (2nd), and … well … what more needs to be said?

Unfortunately, Miller was awfully mortal in 2018. And it was largely due to the fact that he hit the disabled list three times – once with a hamstring strain, then with inflammation in his right knee, and then a left shoulder impingement. None of those are encouraging for any pitcher, yet all feel even more worrisome for a gigantic pitcher that’ll turn 34 in May.

You can see the impact of the injuries and/or age on his velocity:

This graph captures his career since shifting to the bullpen full-time in 2012. His fastball and slider has been relatively steady over the last few years, and then dropped off by nearly a full tick in 2018. That’s not uncommon for a pitcher entering his mid-30s, nor is it the sort of drop-off that makes him unpitchable – especially as a southpaw. It’s still not something that you ever want to see, though, particularly in an abrupt manner.

There is a silver lining in the form of his pre-injury performance, though. It was an incredibly small sample size, but Miller posted the following line before tweaking his hamstring: 10 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 4 BB (1 IBB), 17 K. Moreover, his velocity was at its high point of the season, which isn’t too common. The walks are high, but outside of that he looked like prime Miller.

It’s improbable that the team that signs Miller will see his prime form, but I do think that there enough positive signs to suggest that he will be better than he was last year. His strikeout rate was still comfortably above average, as was his groundball rate, and he was healthy and effective after returning from his shoulder injury. And, unlike Herrera, he healthy at this point in time.

There’s more of a disconnect with projections of Miller’s contract as a result of all of this. MLBTR sees him garnering a 3-year, $27 MM deal, whereas Bowden predicts a one-year, $10 MM pillow contract. I’d love the latter; I’m not too sure how I feel about the former. Cleveland didn’t extend Miller the qualifying offer, so his sole cost will be straight cash.

I think Miller makes more sense for the Yankees, due to the greater certainty of his current health, his familiarity with the park and organization, and his handedness. But I don’t think a 3-year deal makes a tremendous amount of sense, given the team’s budget (whatever it may be) and the glut of solid relievers on the market. One year? I’m all-in. Two years? I’m a bit apprehensive, but I’d probably do it. Three years? Only if that last year is a team or vesting option. And that’s tough for me to say, as Miller remains one of my favorite pitchers in the game.

Another free agent starting pitching option has come off the board. According to multiple reports former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi has agreed to a new deal to return to the Red Sox. It’s said to be a four-year contract worth approximately $17M per season. We haven’t even reached the Winter Meetings yet and already Eovaldi and Patrick Corbin have signed.

The Yankees were never seriously connected to Eovaldi this offseason. A few weeks ago it was reported they were not among his early suitors, then, earlier this week, the Yankees were said to have “engaged” Eovaldi, presumably after they learned they were out on Corbin. Eovaldi was linked to the Red Sox more than any other team this offseason. The Astros were also said to be in the mix.

Personally, passing on Eovaldi was an easy decision for me. I like the guy and I’m glad he got paid after all he’s dealt with in his career. But a two-time Tommy John surgery guy who lives and dies with max effort velocity is risky as hell. More risk than I’m willing to assume at that price. Also, the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” profile is fool’s gold more often than not.

With Corbin and Eovaldi off the board, the three best free agent starters still on the market are J.A. Happ, Dallas Keuchel, and Charlie Morton. The Yankees have been connected to Happ all offseason. Keuchel and Morton, not so much. The Yankees still have an open rotation spot even after re-signing CC Sabathia and trading for James Paxton. How they plan to fill it is anyone’s guess.