Hillary Clinton's Iowa problem

By Peter Hamby, CNN National Political Correspondent

Updated 11:05 AM ET, Tue January 14, 2014

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, pictured in October 2012, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. Here's a look at her life and career through the years:

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Before she married Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here, Rodham talks about student protests in 1969, which she supported in her commencement speech at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Rodham, center, a lawyer for the Rodino Committee, and John Doar, left, chief counsel for the committee, bring impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in the Judiciary Committee hearing room at the U.S. Capitol in 1974.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton helps first lady Rosalynn Carter on a campaign swing through Arkansas in June 1979. Also seen in the photo is Hillary Clinton, center background.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Bill Clinton embraces his wife shortly after a stage light fell near her on January 26, 1992. They talk to Don Hewitt, producer of the CBS show "60 Minutes."

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – With Hillary, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton waves to the crowd at his victory party after winning the Illinois primary on March 17, 1992.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Al Gore, Tipper Gore, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton wave to supporters at the Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua, New York, after they gave speeches on family values on August 23, 1992.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton gestures at a campaign rally November 3, 1992, in Denver. After taking office, President Clinton chose his wife to head a special commission on health care reform, the most significant public policy initiative of his first year in office.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Bill and Hillary Clinton have a laugh together on Capitol Hill in 1993.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton pours herself a cup of tea in 1993 while testifying to the Senate Education and Labor Committee about health care reform.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks at George Washington University on September 10, 1993, in Washington during her husband's first term.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton waves to the media on January 26, 1996, as she arrives at federal court in Washington for an appearance before a grand jury. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary Clinton looks on as President Clinton discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary and Bill Clinton arrive at Foundry United Methodist Church on August 16, 1998, in Washington. He became the first sitting president to testify before a grand jury when he testified via satellite about the Lewinsky matter.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton shakes hands during a St. Patrick's Day parade in the Sunnyside neighborhood of Queens, New York, on March 5, 2000.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton waves to the crowd as she arrives on the stage at the Democratic National Convention on August 14, 2000, in Los Angeles.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton campaigns for a Senate seat October 25, 2000, at Grand Central Station in New York.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary Clinton is sworn in as a senator of New York in a re-enactment ceremony with, from left, President Clinton, nephew Tyler, daughter Chelsea, brother Hugh Rodham, mother Dorothy Rodham and Vice President Al Gore on January 3, 2001, in Washington.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Andrew Cuomo, Eliot Spitzer and Clinton celebrate with a crowd of Democratic supporters after their wins in various races November 7, 2006, in New York.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks during a post-primary rally on January 8, 2007, at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, New Hampshire.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – The Clintons pay a visit to the 92nd annual Hopkinton State Fair in Contoocook, New Hampshire, on September 2, 2007.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks at a campaign rally September 2, 2007, in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. She was running for the Democratic presidential nomination.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton addresses a question during a debate with other Democratic presidential candidate at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, on September 26, 2007. Also pictured are U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, left, and former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Felipe Bravo, left, and Christian Caraballo are covered with Hillary Clinton stickers in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 8, 2008.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton campaigns in Council Bluffs, Iowa, with her daughter, Chelsea, on January 1, 2008, two days ahead of the January 3 state caucus.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton waves as she speaks to supporters at the National Building Museum on June 7, 2008, in Washington. After pulling out of the presidential race, Clinton thanked her supporters and urged them to back Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a Unity Rally in Unity, New Hampshire, on June 27, 2008.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama watches Clinton address the Democratic National Convention on August 26, 2008. The two endured a long, heated contest for the 2008 nomination.

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton testifies during her confirmation hearing for secretary of state on January 13, 2009, in Washington.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton, as secretary of state, dances with a local choir while visiting the Victoria Mxenge Housing Project in Philippi, a township on the outskirts of Cape Town, South Africa, on August 8, 2009.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton looks through binoculars toward North Korea during a visit to an observation post July 21, 2010, at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton walks up the steps to her aircraft as she leaves a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on July 23, 2010, in Hanoi, Vietnam.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary and Bill Clinton pose on the day of their daughter's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky on July 31, 2010, in Rhinebeck, New York.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – U.S. President Barack Obama and Clinton observe a moment of silence before a NATO meeting November 19, 2010, in Lisbon, Portugal.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton listens as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu makes a brief statement November 29, 2010, before a bilateral meeting at the State Department in Washington.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton shakes hands with a child during an unannounced walk through Tahrir Square in Cairo on March 16, 2011.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Clinton and members of Obama's national security team receive an update on the Osama bin Laden mission May 1, 2011, in the Situation Room of the White House.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton checks her personal digital assistant prior to departing Malta on October 18, 2011.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton dances while in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton enjoys a beer at Cafe Havana in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton appears with little makeup during an event in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on May 6, 2012. She tells CNN, "I feel so relieved to be at the stage I'm at in my life right now ... Because you know if I want to wear my glasses, I'm wearing my glasses. If I want to wear my hair back I'm pulling my hair back. You know at some point it's just not something that deserves a lot of time and attention."

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks as Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai listens during a news conference at the presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan, on July 7, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton arrives at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel on July 15, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton looks on as Obama makes a statement in response to the attack at the U.S. Consulate in Libya on September 12, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton applauds Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a ceremony where Suu Kyi was presented with the Congressional Gold Medal on September 19, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Bill Clinton kisses his wife after introducing her at the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting on September 24, 2012, in New York City.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton shakes hands with Libyan President Mohamed Magariaf on September 24, 2012, in New York.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton stands during a news conference following meetings at the prime minister's office in Pristina, Kosovo, on October 31, 2012. Clinton said that Kosovo's unilaterally declared independence, fiercely opposed by Serbia, was "not up for discussion."

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton chats with Suu Kyi before Obama speaks at the University of Yangon in Yangon, Myanmar, on November 19, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama looks at Clinton before the start of a bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, far right, during the East Asian Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on November 20, 2012.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shakes hands with Clinton at the prime minister's office November 20, 2012, in Jerusalem.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton receives a sports jersey and football helmet from Deputy Secretary Tom Nides, center, after returning to work on January 7, 2013, following a fall where she hit her head and doctors later detected a blood clot. The number 112 represented the number of countries that she had visited as secretary of state.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton and her husband arrive for the inauguration for Obama's second term on January 21, 2013.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Capitol Hill on January 23, 2013. Lawmakers questioned Clinton about the security failures during the Benghazi, Libya, attacks that led to the death of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – From left, first lady Michelle Obama stands with former first ladies Laura Bush, Clinton, Barbara Bush and Rosalynn Carter at the opening ceremony of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas on April 25, 2013.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – From left, Clinton, former first lady Laura Bush and former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush listen to speakers during the memorial service for Nelson Mandela in Soweto, South Africa, on December 10.

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Photos: Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries conference in Las Vegas on April 10.

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Photos: Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton tours the National September 11 Memorial & Museum in New York with President Barack Obama, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, first lady Michelle Obama and former President Clinton on May 15.

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton sits down with ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer on Thursday, June 5, for her first television interview in conjunction with the release of her new book, "Hard Choices."

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Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton makes 10-year-old Macy Friday's day as she campaigns for U.S. Sen. Mark Udall during a stop Monday, October 13, in Union Station in Denver.

In Iowa, the state that pulled the first block out of her wobbly Jenga-game of a presidential campaign six years ago, Hillary Clinton enjoys stratospheric approval ratings, well-heeled outside groups toiling on her behalf, and important political connections that date back decades.

From a distance, she appears invincible once again, far outpacing her rivals in the polls and primed to redeem herself in the caucus state that has never been especially friendly to the Clintons, or to female candidates.

Iowa has not elected a female governor, senator or member of Congress. In 2016, Clinton could finally put those demons to rest.

But beneath the surface here, familiar pitfalls might await Clinton should she decide to run: A restive and emboldened progressive base long suspicious of Clintonian moderation, a hunger for fresh Democratic voices, and a caucus electorate that boasts a cherished tradition of voting with its heart rather than its head.

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"One of the great things about our party is that we are always looking for new leadership and new faces to represent the changing face of the Democratic Party," said Kimberley Boggus, a 34-year-old Democratic organizer from Beaverdale. "We are looking for new leadership because that's what's needed right now."

Boggus, who was named the Iowa Democratic Party's "Activist of the Year" in 2012 for her work on President Barack Obama's re-election campaign, did not rule out supporting Clinton if she chooses to run for president, a decision the former secretary of state says she will make sometime later this year. Boggus praised Clinton's rich experience at the highest levels of government and a lifetime of work on behalf of women and children.

But like many Democrats in Iowa, Boggus said she is eager to hear more from other leaders, pointing to Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, two names that have surfaced in early discussions about the next presidential race.

A common theme emerged in conversations about Clinton with more than two dozen Democratic activists, strategists and elected officials during a recent winter week in Iowa: Respect for her within the party runs deep, burnished since 2008 by her tour of duty at the State Department, but widespread passion for Clinton remains wanting.

At the same time, no one could muster the name of a Democrat with the combination of charisma, ideological bona fides and financial firepower who could topple the Clinton juggernaut a second time.

"Who has the kind of pulling power that they can go on the Internet, or go to D.C. and New York and raise the kind of money you need to raise? Who is out there?" said Tom Whitney, a former Democratic Party chairman and gubernatorial candidate who caucused for Obama in 2008. "I would say that the top-tier candidates for Democrats are all women, two or three of them in the U.S. Senate. Hillary stands in the way of all of them."

Despite characterizing Clinton as the most formidable Iowa front-runner the Democratic Party has witnessed since hometown boy Tom Harkin sought the presidency in 1992, Whitney still said he was taking a wait-and-see approach to the campaign.

"Right now, my inclination would be to support her," he said. "But if it's Hillary and somebody else, I don't know. I'm to the left of her, personally."

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Clinton's lead over her potential rivals in polls is startling. In hypothetical matchups, she thumps her next closest opponent, Vice President Joe Biden, by margins that Peyton Manning would envy, winning by 40 or 50 points.

Others on the Democratic bench, like O'Malley, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, register in low single digits, if not asterisk territory. The same goes for two ambitious female senators, Gillibrand and Minnesota's Amy Klobuchar, while Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a darling of the left who says she's not running, scores a few points higher.

The only famous name among no-names

Clinton's robust 2016 lead is built, in part, on her status as the only famous person in a field of relative no-names. A Des Moines Register poll released in December found Clinton's favorability rating among Democrats at a jarring 89%, while just 7% had an unfavorable view.

The pollster Ann Selzer, who crunched the numbers for the Register survey, said the paucity of top-tier Democrats made it difficult just to conduct the poll.

"It was hard to come up with a list," Selzer said in an interview on the newspaper's website. "Part of that was we just haven't had candidates coming to Iowa, and not many Democrats strongly indicating they want to run for president."

The lack of presidential bustle in Democratic circles is indeed glaring, especially compared to the swirl of activity on the Republican side of the ticket, where likely candidates are already making trips to Iowa and aides are peddling negative research on their potential rivals.

The energies of Iowa's Democratic activists are focused not on 2016, but 2014 -- a busy midterm election cycle featuring a rare open Senate seat and two House seats up for grabs.

Would-be Clinton rivals have only tiptoed into Iowa. Biden, no stranger to the state after two ill-fated presidential runs, spoke at Harkin's annual steak fry fundraiser last fall, a rite of passage for any Democratic hopeful. O'Malley spoke at the same event in 2012, at the height of that year's presidential campaign.

Klobuchar traveled south of her state's border to address the North Iowa Wing Ding Fundraiser last August, and chased her appearance with a series of nice-to-meet-you phone calls to some of the Democrats who attended.

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The Wing Ding dinner, held at the historic Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, encapsulated the paralytic early state of the Democratic campaign.

Klobuchar's punchy speech before the chicken wing-munching audience earned her rave reviews from local Democrats, who said she would make an intriguing presidential candidate, but Clinton loomed over the event in absentia. Organizers bestowed a lifetime achievement award on Clinton, and reporters pressed Klobuchar on the former first lady's 2016 chances after the event.

Iowa Democrats' curious paradox

The state's Democratic operatives reveal a curious paradox when handicapping the 2016 race. They note a lack of pervasive grass-roots enthusiasm for Clinton, while at the same time waving off the suggestion that she could lose to another Democrat.

"Hillary does not have the same connection with grass-roots activists that President Obama had," said Sam Reno, a top Obama organizer in Des Moines. "But if Hillary decides to run, I believe Democrats are going to line up behind her lockstep."

Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, who was John Edwards' Iowa state director in 2008 and later held senior roles in Obama's political operation, recalled that six years ago, both Obama and Edwards poured an enormous amount of money and manpower into Iowa to build volunteer-based organizations in the state's 99 counties and compete for endorsements from party leaders.

It's difficult to imagine anyone building the same kind of institutional support to compete with Clinton in 2016, she said.

"There is still a desire for other party leaders to come visit the state and get to know Iowans," O'Malley Dillon said. "There is opportunity for that over the course of the 2014 cycle. But if Secretary Clinton runs, it will be much harder for any candidate to build the type of organization needed to win Iowa, because it's so intensive."

While Clinton-world has kept its distance from Iowa and other early voting states -- she has no leftover campaign structure on the ground here -- her allies have worked to whip up an air of inevitability that threatens to prevent others from joining the race.

Ready for Hillary, an independent group with tacit support from the Clintons, is dispatching a team of organizers to Iowa next week to meet with labor leaders and party activists. "An agenda is in formation," said Ready for Hillary spokesman Seth Bringman when asked about the trip.

Emily's List, a political action committee that backs Democratic women running for office, hosted a "Madam President" event in Des Moines last summer to help generate excitement for the prospect of a female president.

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Clinton also has important connections in the state dating back to her husband's presidency, including Bonnie Campbell, a former Iowa attorney general who served in Bill Clinton's administration and co-founded a blue-chip consulting firm in the trendy East Village district of Des Moines.

Campbell said she has had no conversations with the former first lady about a possible campaign. But if Clinton does choose to seek the Democratic nomination, Campbell predicted she will have broad and enthusiastic support among women, union members and rank-and-file Democrats. The possibility of another insurgent Democrat defeating her the second time around seems dim, Campbell said.

"She knows Iowa now," Campbell said. "Yes, it's possible some very compelling person could come along and strike a chord. That has happened. I just think it's harder this time. There is a sentiment among men and women that it's time to have a woman president. And who would be more capable and more experienced than Hillary Clinton?"

Yet despite having the Democratic establishment at her back, there remains a palpable sense of unease with Clinton in grass-roots corners of the party, even as those very same activists promise to support her if no one else runs.

Part of that restraint is ideological. Iowa's Democratic caucus-goers remain as dovish as they were in 2008, when Clinton's support for the Iraq war badly damaged her standing on the left. Clinton helped wind down that same war as Obama's secretary of state, but she is now linked to his national security apparatus, which has expanded drone attacks overseas and broadened intelligence gathering with controversial surveillance and data collection techniques.

And at a time when progressives feel emboldened to confront issues like income inequality and wage stagnation, Clinton, who delivered paid speeches last year to two prominent private equity firms as well as a group that actively lobbied against the Affordable Care Act, is perceived by some as too close to the deficit-obsessed worlds of Wall Street and official Washington.

"She needs to become more populist," said state Rep. Brian Meyer, a Democrat from Des Moines. "If somebody comes to Iowa and has that populist message it's going to be well received. People are looking for an alternative. Hillary is the front-runner for a reason. A lot of people support her. But there is a group of progressives in Iowa and New Hampshire and elsewhere who want to see what the field is like and who gets in."

Whimsical Democratic impulses

Clinton is also susceptible to some of the same whimsical Democratic impulses that propelled Obama to his stunning Iowa victory in 2008. "Democrats love an underdog and we love a story," is how Meyer put it. With a gleaming resume and the potential to make history as the country's first female president, Clinton has a powerful story to tell. But she is hardly an underdog.

Some party leaders warned Clinton against reprising the same kind of heavy-handed front-running behavior that rankled so many Iowa activists -- not to mention the media -- during her 2008 effort.

"I don't know if she has learned that lesson," said Jean Pardee, the Iowa Democratic Party's 2nd District vice chair. "The problem with so much of her staff was that they were all sort of higher class than the mere peasants that they had to campaign with. Everyone was kept at arm's length by the staff, although a couple of key ones were pretty good. That's a lesson that should be hopefully learned. But when it comes to human nature, maybe that's not possible."

Clinton must also confront the who's-on-deck inclinations of the Democratic caucus-goer. Unlike Republicans, who have a habit of nominating loyal soldiers who have waited for their turn, Iowa Democrats have a tendency to search for someone new. The last time the party nominated an obvious heir-apparent was 2000, but Al Gore first had to beat back an unexpectedly fierce primary challenge from Bill Bradley on the left.

George Appleby, an attorney and lobbyist in Des Moines who supported Bradley and copped to a "pristine record of picking the wrong guy" in every caucus since 1976 until he backed Obama in 2008, described Clinton as "strong" and "brilliant."

But he said liberals are suffering from an acute case of "Clinton fatigue." He named O'Malley, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner and Secretary of State John Kerry, the 2004 Iowa caucus winner, as Democrats he's keeping an eye on.

"Hillary would make a great president," Appleby said. "She is the odds-on-favorite. But I don't think she is necessarily going to be the nominee, or going to win Iowa. Sometimes people have been around forever, and there is time for some new blood."

Difficult to find Democrat critical of Clinton

Even with these simmering concerns, finding a Democrat in Iowa who is outright critical of Clinton, at least on the record, is difficult. Conversations about the putative front-runner, if disparaging, were invariably punctuated with guarded qualifiers. "But I'm not anti-Clinton" is a common refrain. So is "Don't print that."

Such caution was on full display in December, when Schweitzer, the former Montana governor, visited the Des Moines suburb of Altoona to headline a holiday gathering hosted by ProgressIowa, a liberal advocacy group.

Hip to the 2016 buzz that surrounded his visit to the caucus state, Schweitzer made headlines when he criticized the Democratic senators who voted to authorize military action in Iraq in 2002. It was an unmistakable jab at Clinton and her support for the war, a vote that haunted her in 2008 and allowed Obama to tap into the anti-war anxieties of Iowa liberals.

Asked over and over by the five reporters in attendance if his comments were aimed specifically at Clinton, the usually blunt Schweitzer hemmed and hawed. "I think 21 Democratic senators got it exactly right and voted against it," he said, avoiding naming names, and thus any head-on criticism of Clinton.

The Schweitzer event drew a number of Democratic party power-brokers, including gubernatorial candidate Jack Hatch, who purchased Schweitzer's signature bolo tie for $125 in a slapdash auction, and Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan, who waved off a reporter's questions about 2016.

"It's so damn early," he said. "It was stupid early in 2008 and it's stupid early now. No one has done a damn thing."

And yet, for some reason, nearly 70 activists, labor leaders and party officials showed up to a casino ballroom in the pre-Christmas cold to hear the voluble Montana governor talk about education, the economy and prison reform.

"I'm glad he's here," said Meyer, the state legislator, who was nursing a beer in the back of the room. "I don't think he can wait on Hillary's decision to come out. People, if they are serious about running, they have to come out before she makes a decision. Clearly she is the front-runner and she is a wonderful candidate. Joe Biden is No. 2. But I would like to see a second tier of candidates come out here, because Iowa is where upsets are made and where people move on."

Also patrolling the room was Rob Hogg, a bespectacled state senator from Cedar Rapids. After proudly signing a copy of his book on climate change and handing it to a reporter, Hogg was asked which Democratic candidate he supported in the 2008 caucuses.

"I supported Secretary Clinton," he said.

Pressed twice on whether he would back her once again, Hogg twice replied with the same answer: "It depends on who else is in the field."