Stephen Harper delivers the eulogy at the state funeral for Jim Flaherty in Toronto on Wednesday. The eulogy displayed one of the Conservatives' potential assets — the empathy and sincerity Harper is capable of when he makes the effort, writes Michael Den Tandt.Frank Gunn/THE CANADIAN PRESS
/ Postmedia News

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s personal, moving eulogy Wednesday for his friend and former finance minister, Jim Flaherty, marked a turning point of sorts for the Conservative government. We’ve a year to go, perhaps a bit longer, until Election 2015. The time for big cabinet shuffles and policy course corrections is past. And Flaherty, who was a force of compassion and moderation in a power structure not known for either quality, is gone.

Justin Trudeau, the Liberal leader, has been in his job for a year; Tom Mulcair, the NDP Opposition leader, nearly two. Canadians have a fair idea, at this point, of what each party offers, and doesn’t. So, this is as good a time as any to reassess the state of play. Where do the Conservatives stand, in the post-Flaherty era? What are the critical obstacles they face, and advantages they hold, from now until the writ is dropped?

On paper, the Tories should be in a fair position to contend for another majority. Harper personally has had a good couple of months. His clear stand on the Ukraine file won all-party support in the Commons. Canada’s stance has also been borne out by events, with Russia now doing to eastern Ukraine what it did weeks ago to Crimea. Despite Harper’s odd crush on Israel’s Likud party, his handling of foreign policy is consistently good.

On the economic file, there is simply no value, for the opposition, in denying that the broad strokes of Tory economic management since 2008 have put Canada in a strong position, relative to all its G7 peers. Nor is there any denying that a package of tax reductions, made possible by a looming surplus, will have considerable electoral appeal in 2015, as tax cuts always do, whatever party brings them forward.

To pull that off requires skill. It would be foolish to assume the PM won’t bring his full abilities to bear again in debates and on the campaign trail.

The first is natural late-cycle ossification, which tends to cripple any government after year eight or nine of its life. The web of relationships and personal obligations, debts, grudges, ambitions, promises, mistakes and aspirations that make up any political party has a limited shelf life, we have seen time and time again (and are seeing now at Queen’s Park in Toronto), after which the beams start to rot.

The natural self-healing process of purging and renewal grows stilted and difficult — particularly when, as is the case in Harper’s Ottawa now, the centre has already been rocked by months of error and scandal, and the pool of potential operatives who are both loyal and able has grown shallow. The recent downfall of former Conservative party executive director Dimitri Soudas is a case in point.

Second, the Wright-Duffy scandal and the related problem of what to do about the Senate, are both still active. Though the RCMP has ruled out filing charges against Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright, Global News has reported that charges will likely be laid against suspended senator Mike Duffy within weeks. That would blow the entire affair up again, just when it was beginning to fade, a little.

Relatedly, the Supreme Court is poised to render its opinion next week about what is required for Senate reform and/or abolition. If, as expected, the court rules that any meaningful reform (including electing senators with term limits) requires at least approval by seven provinces with 50 per cent of the population, or unanimity, Conservative reform plans will be back at square one, after eight years in power.

Third, and most important: The Conservative government, read the prime minister, has ignored this glaring strategic reality: To counter a Trudeau-led Liberal party and a Mulcair-led NDP, the Conservatives needed to curb their anti-democratic tendencies — epitomized by omnibus bills and constant, intransigent resistance to compromise, which looks like the arrogance of long-held power — and make themselves credible on the environment. Unfortunately for their more moderate supporters, they have done neither; if anything, they’ve doubled down.

Core Conservative support, just under 30 per cent of the voting population, has kept the party more than solvent; but it can’t win it a majority. That is a fundamental problem for the Harper team, and one it has precious little time to solve.

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