The selection of Kevin Millwood as the fifth-best pitcher in Atlanta history seems odd at first glance. However, I chose him after careful consideration using my usual standards:

1. Runs Saved Above Average: Millwood’s RSAA is the highest of any Atlanta Brave except Niekro and the Big Three.
2. Wins: Millwood is eighth in Atlanta history in wins with 75, fourth in a five-man group with 83 to 72.
3. Duration: Millwood pitched 1004 1/3 innings in a Brave uniform, ninth on the Atlanta list.
4. Contribution to winning teams: Millwood had five seasons and part of a sixth in Atlanta and the team won the division every year, of course. In 1999 he led the starters in ERA, one of only two times since 1991 that the leader has not been Glavine, Maddux, or Smoltz.

I’m pretty comfortable where he ranks among the pitchers. He maybe should rank lower overall. The difference between the fourth-best pitcher and the fifth-best is immense.

Millwood was an eleventh-round pick out of high school in 1993. His numbers in the minors really aren’t anything special until 1997. That year, he was 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA in Greenville, but was striking out a man an inning and earned a promotion to Richmond. There, he went 7-0 with a 1.93 ERA and the Braves called him up to pitch for the big club. Because of injuries to Smoltz, Millwood was able to stay in basically a regular rotation most of his time in Atlanta, where he went 5-3 with a 4.03 ERA.

In 1998, he was again usually used in a regular rotation (Smoltz was limited to 26 starts) and went 17-8, albeit with an ERA only a little better than the league. I do not think it a coincidence that Millwood, the one Braves prospect pitcher to make it as a starter with the club during the nineties, was the one who was able to stay in a regular rotation early in his career. A lot of promising pitchers got put in that fifth starter spot and spent two years sitting in the bullpen unused much of the time. Millwood got to pitch.

In 1999, Kevin had his best year as a Brave by far, going 18-7 with a 2.68 ERA. He was third in the Cy Young voting and second in the league in ERA. He pitched well in the Division Series and LCS, but was knocked out of the box in his World Series start. For the next two seasons, Millwood was an ordinary pitcher, largely because of arm problems that were often blamed on heavy use in 1999. My recollection is that Millwood beginning at this time fatigued easily, and Bobby wasn’t always ready to catch it, leading to a lot of good starts blown.

In 2002, Millwood rebounded to 18-8, 3.24. Bobby had learned better to regulate his workload, but also he was finally healthy. Still, his peripherals were not all that much better than in his previous full season, 2000. Trading him at that time might have been a wise choice. The problem was trading him in the division and for a seemingly low return.

Millwood was adequate for the Phillies in 2003 (though he did throw a no-hitter) poor in 2004. The Indians picked him up cheap, and he won the AL ERA title in 2005. (How come those people who say that the NL is inferior because an AL washout like Jeff Suppan can pitch well never mention this?) He signed a big free agent contract with the Rangers, but was ordinary again last year. I should point out that his similar pitchers list has a lot of the same names as Tim Hudson’s — Jack McDowell, Dennis Leonard.

Looking at his career history, he has only been significantly above average once every three years, like clockwork. So he’s due to be average again in 07, and then have a good year in 08. I never particularly looked forward to him starting a game as a Brave, but compared to the back end of the current rotation…

Given than Glavine will get a $3 million buyout if he turns down the Mets’ offer to pick up or renegotiate his option, the Braves might possibly be able to sign him to a one-year deal for, say, $7-8 mill. Because if you combine that $7-8 mill with the $3 mill buyout, he’d in effect be getting $10-11 million for one season to live at home and get his 300th win in a Braves uniform _ provided he stays healthy and wins 10 games in 2007. If he turns that down, we’d probably deduce that pitching at home isn’t THAT important to him….

I always like Kevin Millwood, and was sad to see him go. It did turn out pretty good for us (although he has now turned into Cormier and Villarreal), so I don’t regret the trade itself. Just sorry to see Kevin go. I was happy to see him have such a good year last year and bounce back from the bad years in Philly (and I was glad he waited until he was out of our division to bounce back). I think being ordinary in Texas is like being ordinary in Colorado—you have to be pretty good to accomplish that.

Mac, I read that the team option is 13 mil. Glavine’s option is 7. The buyout is 3. O’brien’s assessment is right on. If he can TOTAL 10 or 11 mil why not pitch in ATL (assuming that he is wanted). With the exception of his first Mets season he has been a pretty good pitcher. Funny his win loss record from this season makes him a hot commodity (along with the general dearth of pitching) again even if he has essentially pitched at the same level less his 2003 season.

Man has Atlanta pitching sucked or what? Millwood the 5th best pitcher in 40 years of Atlanta baseball??????? I was ticked when we traded him. I thought he would be one of our long time stalwarts. I am with the young lady that commented earlier. Average at Texas’ home park is a feat.

There’s nothing wrong with three lefties in the rotation, and I’m not comfortable with Davies at all without a solid backup option. But I don’t see the Mets letting Glavine go, or the Braves paying him enough.

I’ll only believe the Glavine story when he actually dons the tomahawk. I’m skeptical about him returning, but for one year I have no doubt that he’d be better than Davies, who hasn’t impressed me much.

Kyle Davies is English for Jorge Sosa. But of course the Braves now have two very small sample sizes with which to decide his fate. I personally think that the Commonwealth of Virginia beckons. No one here has even mentioned John Thomson. I know that the chances of re signing him are non existent but he has been good for us.

Re signing Glavine would be cool but I think that flournoy is correct, the Mets are going to pony up.

#17, I think we keep Davies in AAA with or without Glavine. I think the question is who will be our 3rd lefty in the rotation. Horam or Glavine, but I still dont see us giving Glavine 7 or 8 mil for one year. How about giving Smoltz an extra $2 per year and getting a 07, 08, and an 09 option?

thats a real terrible thing that happened to him. He’s extremely lucky just to be alive or even be able to walk. Even if he doesnt play again, he got very lucky. I hope he can return, but I doubt he would risk another inury like that

If you let Teheran eat innings the first few months and stick with the plan to provide an extra day of rest whenever possible, you're less likely to end up in a position where you may need to limit the younger arms down the stretch