The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Cryptic and quiet, the Brown Creeper is easily overlooked in woodlands across the continent. The species is a forest generalist, but with an overall preference for northern and high-elevation woods. Many migrate well south in the winter, but others winter near or within the breeding grounds. Like many other northern forest birds, Audubon’s climate model indicates a significant shift and decrease in summer climate space—only 22% of current range will remain stable, with a concurrent 41% decrease in total summer area available. Suitable winter climate space may spread north into areas occupied by the species only in summer, but those modest gains in winter in the north are predicted to be insufficient in the face of larger losses of suitable climate space from the current summer range.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.