Sunday cold front: How cool will it get?

HERE WE GO AGAIN: Astronomical high tides coupled with the lunar cycle will trigger tides a foot above predicted levels, causing yet another round of flooding in Palm Beach and other barrier islands of South Florida, the National Weather Service said. Higher than normal tides generally splash water from the Intracoastal on to the Lake Trail in Palm Beach, and water depth along Flagler Drive in some parts of West Palm Beach have rendered the road nearly impassable. The National Weather Service in Miami issued another coastal flood advisory through early Sunday afternoon. Forecasters said the advisory may have to be extended into early next week. Some roads in Miami Beach were closed Thursday night due to flooding. (Credit: NWS-Miami)

The much-anticipated cold front that has been discussed in Publix checkout lanes and around office water coolers is set to sweep through Palm Beach on Sunday afternoon, bringing drier air and slightly cooler temperatures. The forecast high in Palm Beach Sunday is 82.

That’s 4 degrees below normal, which does not qualify it as a polar outbreak. Low temperatures should be in the low- to mid-70s, around normal for this time of the year.

Treasure Coast lows to the north on Sunday night should dip into the upper-60s. In Palm Beach County, Belle Glade may dip into the high-60s on Monday night.

AccuWeather is onboard with at least drier weather early next week, and the commercial forecasting service is predicting a more dramatic cool-down for the last week of the month, with highs in the upper 70s.

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WET AND WILD: AccuWeather issued its winter forecast this week, predicting “heavy rainfall and severe weather” for Florida and the Gulf Coast States. A milder winter is forecast for the Upper Midwest with slightly warmer temperatures for New England and wet winter weather in California.

The forecast is based largely on the strength of El Niño, of course, which NOAA says will build to a peak in late fall and early winter and then weaken starting in spring.

During the last strong El Niño in 1997-1998, December-February rainfall in West Palm Beach was 5.02 inches, 11.18 inches and 6.23 inches, respectively. All of those totals were well above average — particularly the January 1998 rainfall of 11.18 inches, which compares to an average of about 2.70 inches.

During the 1982-1983 El Niño, the area was walloped with 14.63 inches of rain in November, but December’s rainfall was actually below average at 1.52 inches. In January, West Palm Beach was hit with 11.01 inches and February’s total was a hefty 8.71 inches.

By the way, temperatures during the 1997-1998 winter event were around average to slightly cooler than average. In 1982-1983 temperatures were above normal in December and below normal in January and February.

According to David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist, the main reason South Florida El Niño winters are a little cooler has more to do with cloud cover than Arctic cold fronts. Those tend to be generated by other factors.

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TROPICS TALK: Joaquin generated more accumulated cyclone energy (ACE — a measure of the strength and longevity of a storm) than all other Atlantic tropical cyclones combined since 1 June. That’s according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach on Twitter.

(Credit: NOAA/ National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

The National Hurricane Center forecast map is clear for the next five days. But NOAA’s GFS forecast model has been consistent in spinning up a tropical system in the Caribbean toward the end of next week.