An Alarming Alliance: Sino-Russian Ties Tightening

About the Author

Peter BrookesSenior Fellow, National Security AffairsDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy

This week will see an ominous precedent: The first- ever joint
Chinese-Russian military exercises kick off Thursday in Northeast
Asia.

The exercises are small in scale - but huge in implication. They
indicate a further warming of the "strategic partnership" that
Moscow and Beijing struck back in 1996.

More importantly, they signal the first real post-Cold War
steps, beyond inflammatory rhetoric, by Russia and China to balance
- and, ultimately, diminish - U.S. power across Asia. If America
doesn't take strategic steps to counter these efforts, it will lose
influence to Russia and China in an increasingly important part of
the world.

Unimaginable just a few years ago, the weeklong military
exercises - dubbed "Peace Mission 2005" - will involve 10,000
troops on China and Russia's eastern coasts and in adjacent
seas.

This unmistakable example of Sino-Russian military
muscle-flexing will also include Russia's advanced SU-27 fighters,
strategic TU-95 and TU-22 bombers, submarines, amphibious and
anti-submarine ships.

The exercise's putative purpose is to "strengthen the capability
of the two armed forces in jointly striking international
terrorism, extremism and separatism," says China's Defense
Ministry.

But the Chinese defense minister was more frank in comments
earlier this year. Gen. Cao Gangchuan said: "The exercise will
exert both immediate and far-reaching impacts." This raised lots of
eyebrows - especially in the United States, Taiwan and Japan.

For instance, although Russia nixed the idea, the Chinese
demanded the exercises be held 500 miles to the south - a move
plainly aimed at intimidating Taiwan.

Beijing clearly wanted to send a warning to Washington (and,
perhaps, Tokyo) about its support for Taipei, and hint at the
possibility that if there were a Taiwan Strait dust-up, Russia
might stand with China.

The exercise also gives Russia an opportunity to strut its
military wares before its best customers - Chinese generals. Moscow
is Beijing's largest arms supplier, to the tune of more than $2
billion a year for purchases that include subs, ships, missiles and
fighters.

Rumors abound that Moscow may finally be ready to sell
strategic, cruise-missile-capable bombers such as the long-range
TU-95 and supersonic TU-22 to Beijing - strengthening China's
military hand against America and U.S. friends and allies in
Asia.

Russia and China are working together to oppose American
influence all around their periphery. Both are upset by U.S.
support for freedom in the region - notably in the recent Orange
(Ukraine), Rose (Georgia) and Tulip (Kyrgyzstan) revolutions - all
of which fell in what Moscow or Beijing deems its sphere of
influence.

In fact, at a recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (i.e., Russia, China and the four 'Stans'), Moscow and
Beijing conspired to get Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to close U.S.
airbases.

As a result, Uzbekistan gave America 180 days to get out,
despite the base's continued use in Afghanistan operations. (Quick
diplomacy by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld saved the Kyrgyz
base, but it remains on the ropes.)

Moreover, it shouldn't be overlooked that the "Shanghai Six"
have invited Iran, India and Pakistan to join the group as
observers, expanding China and Russia's influence into South Asia
and parts of the Middle East.

What to do?

First, the Pentagon must make sure the forthcoming Quadrennial
Defense Review balances U.S. forces to address both the
unconventional terrorist threat and the big-power challenge
represented by a Russia-China strategic partnership.

Second, the United States must continue to strengthen its
relationship with its ally Japan to ensure a balance of power in
Northeast Asia - and also encourage Tokyo to improve relations with
Moscow in an effort to loosen Sino-Russian ties.

Third, Washington must persevere in advancing its new
relationship with (New) Delhi in order to balance Beijing's growing
power in Asia and take advantage of India's longstanding, positive
relationship with Russia.

And be ready to deal. Russia has historically been wary of
China. America must not ignore the possibilities of developing a
long-term, favorable relationship with Russia - despite the
challenges posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's heavy-handed
rule.

These unprecedented military exercises don't make a formal
Beijing-Moscow alliance inevitable. But they represent a new, more
intimate phase in the Sino-Russian relationship. And China's
growing political/economic clout mated with Russia's military would
make for a potentially potent anti-American bloc.

For the moment, Beijing and Moscow are committed to building a
political order in Asia that doesn't include America atop the power
pyramid. With issues from Islamic terrorism to North Korean nukes
to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the stakes in Asia are huge.
Washington and its friends must not waste any time in addressing
the burgeoning Sino-Russian entente.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior
fellow.

About the Author

Peter BrookesSenior Fellow, National Security AffairsDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy