“We've made steady progress,” said Aisen, whose maternal grandmother died from Alzheimer's disease. “ . . . I truly believe Alzheimer's will be brought under control in our lifetime.”

He said scientists can achieve quicker progress not only with more funding, but also greater participation in studies by Alzheimer's patients and wider public understanding for families coping with the disease.

The federal government spends about $500 million annually on Alzheimer's research, and the newly passed stimulus bill will add about $25 million a year. Pharmaceutical companies invest far more than that, Aisen said, and California pays for some studies through its stem cell initiative.

The money supports a field that publishes more than 100 studies a week.

“No field is more exciting in all of medicine than the pursuit of therapeutic treatments for Alzheimer's,” Aisen said. “We're on the cusp of reaching significant milestones.”

In the meantime, agencies, health providers and families continue to grapple with significant challenges posed by the disease.

Nicole Payne, 35, is the main caregiver for her father, Tim Soto, 56. Two years ago, Soto moved into the El Cajon home that Payne shares with her husband and three daughters.

“He's getting worse, a lot worse, and I don't know what I'm going to do,” said Payne, who is among the 1.1 million Californians taking care of someone with Alzheimer's disease or other forms of dementia. “I've had to make decisions that I feel I'm not prepared to make at my age.”

Soto easily recalls names, but he struggles with numbers and other things. “He can't remember if he took his pills or not,” Payne said.

Her father also has become estranged from lifelong friends. “They are there (for him), but he can't maintain conversations with them,” Payne said. “I'm sure it's hard on him.”

Alzheimer's experts said one in eight Californians 55 or older will develop the disease, and one in six will develop dementia. The trend will be most pronounced among minorities, with Alzheimer's rates expected to triple among Hispanics and Asians.

Paying for Alzheimer's care will become increasingly difficult, the report said.

About $81,000 is spent each year caring for a patient such as Soto, who lives in a private home and regularly visits an adult day care center. It costs nearly $97,000 annually for a patient living in a nursing home.

The total yearly expense of caring for Alzheimer's patients in California will shoot up 96 percent by 2030 – to $98.8 billion from the current $50.5 billion, according to the study.

In the 1980s, California led the nation in developing programs and services for Alzheimer's patients and their caregivers, said Patrick Fox, a health policy professor at UC San Francisco and one of the report's authors. Other states have caught up in recent years.

California could fall behind if a comprehensive plan for dealing with the disease isn't developed soon, Fox said.

“With the (state) budget problems we have, this is kind of a perfect storm,” he said. “The service system is just trying to hold its own, but this demographic wave is increasing the number of people with Alzheimer's.”

The smaller generations following the baby boomers will struggle to find enough specialists and family caregivers to look after the burgeoning number of Alzheimer's patients, said Lynn Daucher, director of the state Department of Aging.

“I don't think the country is ready. Nobody has the resources for the numbers that are coming,” she said. “Everybody is going to be touched by this, and everybody will have to participate in the solution.”