Lonegan victory still a long shot

This week must have seemed like Christmas morning to Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan. With the election three weeks away, a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released on Tuesday had his Democratic opponent, Cory Booker, leading by only 53-41 percent.

Lonegan still faces a formidable challenge in his bid to replace the late Frank Lautenberg in the Senate. But less than two months ago, one poll had him trailing by 35 points. Lonegan's gains, however, might be due less to his ultra-conservative views resonating with New Jersey voters than to the exposure of the chinks in Booker's armor in recent weeks.

Forty-three percent of voters still said they did not know enough about Lonegan to form an opinion. Booker does far better than Lonegan among women (60 to 34 percent), and more people believe that Booker understands their problems, is more honest and trustworthy, and has the best experience to be senator. In addition, 49 percent believe Booker's ideology is "about right."

Also, it's questionable whether more exposure to Lonegan's views through the two upcoming televised debates and campaign appearances will help or hurt him with undecided, mainstream voters.

But Lonegan has succeeded in making some people question whether Booker's appeal is more sizzle than steak. Lonegan's barbs that Booker is merely Obama-light, and more "show horse than workhorse," might be hitting home.

We suspect the softening of Booker's numbers, however, has more to do with a spate of recent negative news stories about him, beginning with Waywire, his controversial technology start-up company that he initially failed to list on his disclosure forms. It has raised eyebrows and generated questions, including how a full-time mayor had the time and resources to launch an online video company, raise investments from entities such as Google and produce what could be a multimillion-dollar windfall.

Questions also have been raised about the separation deal Booker made when he left his old law firm to serve as mayor. Booker, who has refused to make the agreement public, was a partner at Trenk DiPasquale for the last two years (2005-2006) of his six-year employment at the firm. When he became mayor, he received more than $668,000 in payments from Trenk DiPasquale. During that period, the firm received more than $2 million in contracts from the City of Newark Housing Authority and other city entities. He maintains the entities are independent of his control. Nevertheless, he has the power to influence them through the appointment process.

Despite the Quinnipiac poll, it is questionable whether Lonegan will be able to close the gap. He has been more successful portraying Booker in a negative light than advancing a vision most New Jersey voters are likely to embrace. Unless that changes, a Lonegan victory would still seem a long shot on Election Day.

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Lonegan victory still a long shot

This week must have seemed like Christmas morning to Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan.

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