2015-03-11T22:33:34ZGetting to the table : explaining the incidence of mediation in the insurgencies of Indonesiahttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/95549
Getting to the table : explaining the incidence of mediation in the insurgencies of Indonesia
Tan, Keng Meng
Indonesia has experienced six insurgencies since it declared independence in 1945. Of these insurgencies, three were resolved through negotiations. There is great variation in the manner the negotiations occurred. The state negotiated with Portugal over East Timor with the United Nations (UN) as mediator while negotiations with the Acehnese were first mediated by the Henry Dunant Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HDC) and later the Crisis Management Initiative (CMI). Finally, the state refused any mediators in the case of West Papua, where Indonesia's longest and bloodiest insurgency continues to take place. What explains the variation in the decision to have mediation and the choice of mediators? This is the central question of the thesis. In examining this variation, I hope to contribute to the literature on bargaining in insurgencies as well as examine the effectiveness of mediation, which is disputed. I argue that a state that is not committed or has very low levels of commitment to negotiations will not have a mediator. The more committed the state is to negotiations, the stronger the mediator the state will seek. The level of commitment is a function of the balance of power between the incumbents and insurgents, domestic support, and international pressure for peaceful resolution. Domestic support is the pivotal factor with the military being the most decisive actor. Based on this argument, I develop a scenario-based framework in which states could possibly find themselves in and test it on the three cases of insurgencies in Indonesia. The findings show that the state was more committed to reaching a settlement in East Timor and Aceh than in West Papua and so had mediators to ensure the success of the peace processes, which would not have occurred otherwise. In addition, the findings also suggest that a hurting stalemate is not a necessary precondition for successful mediation, contrary to the literature on mediation. The thesis concludes by drawing some policy implications and directions for further research.
Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 2014.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 158-173).
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZWhat do abortion policies accomplish? : understanding how abortion laws and court cases affect public opinionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/95548
What do abortion policies accomplish? : understanding how abortion laws and court cases affect public opinion
Hernandez, Cory D
Abortion is a loaded, controversial, and divisive sociocultural and political term, concept, and debate. Yet little empirical research has been conducted to examine what effects abortion rights legislation and court cases have had on the public and our society. After analyzing a broad overview of the history of the abortion rights debate in the US, I conduct bivariate and multivariate regression analyses from 1972-2004 using NES and personally-collected data to see how these laws and court opinions in various states at the individual level influence public opinion of abortion rights and of the government. In the end, I conclude that, of the possible iterated relationships therefrom, anti-choice policies have statistically significant impacts on both how people view abortion rights and their own state governments. In doing so, I challenge extant models that describe the interaction between public opinion and policy. I also further develop the idea of Policy Overreach, where policymakers go "too far"-at least, in the eyes of the public-in setting anti-choice policies, causing the public to retaliate in various ways. Not only does this thesis answer some important questions, but also introduces new measures, concepts, questions, and data for future research into this important area of study.
Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 2014.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 114-124).
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZSafe havens in Syria : missions and requirements for an air campaignhttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/95520
Safe havens in Syria : missions and requirements for an air campaign
Haggerty, Brian Thomas
What if the United States had led its NATO allies to intervene in Syria's civil war in the midst of calls for humanitarian intervention in mid-2012? Despite the importance of this question for the study and evaluation of U.S. foreign policy, little exists in the way of systematic, open-source analysis of the military missions and material requirements for a possible Syrian intervention. This thesis assesses the scale, scope, and challenges of intervention in Syria at the time its proponents argue it would have been most effective. It does so through open-source analysis of a U.S.-led air campaign designed to mitigate the country's humanitarian crisis. The model of intervention analyzed -- broadly conceived as the establishment of safe havens around major Syrian population areas defended from the air -- offers a template for evaluating the utility of air power in the Syrian context more generally. The analysis suggests an intervention in mid-2012 to establish safe havens in Syria would have been a major military undertaking, likely requiring greater resources and facing greater risks than any of NATO's previous air campaigns in response to humanitarian crises in Bosnia, Kosovo, or Libya. The "low-risk" rationale for humanitarian intervention from the air thus appears far less persuasive in the Syrian case. The thesis concludes with implications for the application of air power to future humanitarian crises.
Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 2014.; This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.; Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 102-109).
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZStrategy for international cooperation in planning the Chinese Space Stationhttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90041
Strategy for international cooperation in planning the Chinese Space Station
Foley, Jordan J. (Jordan James)
After ten years of planning and pre-development, the Chinese government approved the space station project on September 25, 2010. In October 2010, the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially announced its independent space station construction project planned for successful completion by 2022 with an operation life of approximately ten years. The Chinese Space Station (CSS) is of particular interest to those who research the country's patterns of behavior in cooperative ventures. The future space station is being advertised as an international collaborative project on an unprecedented scale for China. However, inviting international partners in the process of constructing and operating a space station presents an expansively demanding policy problem. China must determine if there are tangible benefits associated with different scales and scopes of space station cooperation. The key policy issue is finding a model that is effective for fair and rational cooperation based on mutual benefit, transparency, reciprocity, and cost sharing, while striking a balance with partners over ownership, intellectual property, and utilization rights. Through first hand professional and cultural experience in China and translations of various Chinese academic journals, I construct an analytical assessment of PRC space activities and expect CSS to take the form of a regionally focused space station leaving China with ultimate authority over day-to-day operations. Given its past behavior, China will likely control the majority share, establish a chain of command, and be in a position of power rather than establishing a system of equal share. Furthermore, China should extend offers for collaboration to strategic partners in the immediate Asia-Pacific region and beyond while continuing to include the United Nations. I argue that if CSS can be effectively managed as a platform for international cooperation and global leadership, then it can achieve subsidiary benefits for the Chinese government in domestic and foreign policy.
Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2014.; Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 2014.; Original Chinese text of author translations (pages 468- 498). Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 202-229).
2014-01-01T00:00:00Z