Rest vs. Rust: A Bye Offers No Guarantees

A bye week gives the Panthers the chance to get their top running back, Jonathan Stewart, ready.CreditChris Keane/Associated Press

By The Associated Press

Jan. 9, 2016

Nearly every coach and player heading to the N.F.L. playoffs will insist how beneficial skipping wild-card weekend is: It’s all about the bye in January.

But is it all that much help on the road to the Super Bowl?

In the minds and approaches of anyone on a winning team, it certainly is, no matter the potential unexpected consequences.

“Rest and a lot more extra practice time,” Cardinals Coach Bruce Arians said, referring to the benefits of a week off from playing. “We get to focus on a number of different teams and especially ourselves. We get to go back and just do a lot of fundamental work.

“But the biggest thing is rest.”

Combined, naturally, with recovering from injuries. Arizona and Carolina in the N.F.C. and Denver and New England in the A.F.C. earned byes despite missing some key players down the stretch.

The Panthers, for example, figure to have their only proven running back, Jonathan Stewart, ready next weekend. Peyton Manning gets another week to heal for the Broncos, as do DeMarcus Ware and Chris Harris Jr.

New England might have an easier time listing its players who have not been hurt over the last six weeks, when it lost four of six games.

“Yeah, I think it’s important for everybody this time of year,” quarterback Tom Brady said. “Our bye week was a long time ago, so this is the first time we’ve had off in quite a while.

“A lot of guys have been fighting through different kind of bumps and bruises over the course of the season, so you try and take advantage of that as best you can to feel good.”

But there is no guarantee that teams will be at their best when they reach the divisional round. The overall record of teams with a wild-card bye since the current format was adopted in 1990 is 128-83, a .607 winning percentage, according to the agency Stats. That is hardly dominant.

Yes, 17 teams have grabbed postseason byes and then won the Super Bowl, including the last two champions. But consider this: Denver is 7-6 in the playoffs when it gets a bye. Even worse, Carolina is 1-3. (New England is a strong 20-6, which is hardly surprising, and Arizona’s bye this season is its first.)

While the benefits of not suiting up for a game are many, there is some potentially negative residue. Rust, for example. A drop-off in execution. Even overpreparing.

“There are a lot of different scenarios, so you try to do your best mentally to get ready,” Brady said, “and physically you’ve just got to put as much effort in as you can to make yourself feel better.”

Most dangerous is the possibility of rust. N.F.L. players and coaches are accustomed to preparation by rote, and their routines are most definitely disrupted by the bye.

Still, many scoff at the notion, particularly coaching staffs given so many more hours to get ready for the next opponent.

Nevertheless, the danger is real. The 2007-8 Cowboys can tell you about it, as can the 2011-12 Packers. Regarded as Super Bowl contenders, both were victimized in the division round by the Giants, who had not had a week off.

Or ask the Broncos of last season. They lost to Indianapolis.

Finding the balance is the secret. Sure, one can picture Bill Belichick with a mad scientist’s look on his face scouring through extra hours of film and scouting reports. There is even a theory throughout the N.F.L. — and college football — that when certain coaches have even more time to devise game plans, they are unbeatable.

And there is no denying that when applied correctly, the bye helps reveal strategies to use against the next opponent, which, of course, is coming off a hard-fought wild-card game.

Arians thinks the Cardinals have covered it all, from self-evaluation to preparation.

“We’ve already done a five-game breakdown, a 16-game breakdown of ourselves,” he said. “So we know everything that they have on us, all three teams, so you look, and you just work fundamentals.”

And you do not play, an advantage but not the huge edge some make it out to be — except for the chance to do, well, what millions of fans do weekly.

“I’ve always been a fan of football, always watched the N.F.L.,” Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski said, “and it’s great to always sit back wherever I can this year. You sit back and enjoy the games, pop a little sports drink — not any pop or soda — lay back, watch the games. It’s always cool to see how the games go down and just enjoy them.”

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page SP2 of the New York edition with the headline: Teams With First-Round Byes Must Balance Rest Against Rust. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe