Delta II Rocket Falls to the Odds

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Delta II Rocket Falls to the Odds

The US$55 million Delta II rocket the Air Force used to launch a global positioning satellite had cheated the law of averages. That luck ran out on Friday morning about 12 seconds after liftoff.

The vehicle self-destructed, raining a fiery shower of debris down on the Cape Canaveral, Florida, launch pad and surrounding unpopulated area. No one was hurt - this time.

"Deltas don't usually blow up," said John Pike, director of the space policy project at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, DC. "The odds are 1 in 20, but Delta has had more than 20 launches between today and the last time it blew up."

The Delta II, manufactured by McDonnell Douglas, has had a successful launch record. The last near-pad disaster occurred in 1977, the Air Force said in a statement.

Following the disaster, the Air Force issued a statement that said, "An anomaly occurred about 12 seconds into powered flight. The vehicle self-destructed. ... There were no injured personnel."

Air Force officials said they have scrapped plans to launch a Delta rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California that was scheduled for next week, pending the investigation into Friday's explosion.

The Delta II is powered by a kerosene and liquid oxygen engine used in combination with solid-fueled rocket motors. Neither fuel is toxic, said Pike. The solid fuel burns out at low altitudes and the kerosene and liquid oxygen "are about as toxic as gasoline." Pike said the GPS satellite on board the Delta was outfitted with solar panels and did not use a plutonium power source.

Nonetheless, the specter of Friday's launch raised doubts in Pike's mind and those of activists such as Bruce Gagnon, state director of the Florida Coalition for Peace and Justice, about the planned launch of the Cassini space probe in October. The mission, which will investigate Saturn, is depending upon more than 70 pounds of highly radioactive plutonium for propulsion.

"Of course I'm concerned. [Today's explosion] should raise everyone's concerns about Cassini," said Pike, the odds for an explosion of Titan IV are the same as those for the Delta, about 1 in 20.