Chat: Jeff Moore

Jeff Moore: it's amazing what the final week before a big list like the BP Mid-Season Top 50 can do to a person's caffeine intake. I'm coming to you from the Starbucks around the corner from my house as i attempt to wean myself down from two a day to a more human intake.
In the meantime, let's talk prospects and rankings!!!

Greg (NYC): Where would Matz have ranked had he been on the list? Has his projection changed since the BP reports on him last year?

Jeff Moore: Quite high. I would have pushed for him to be in the single digits and it would have been close. He certainly would have been the second lefty on the list behind Urias.

Randy W (Las Vegas): Jeff - I have a thing for 18 year old shortstops. I was a little surprised to see Albies so many spots ahead of Torres. What sets them apart that accounts for the difference? Is it the number of tools or the quality?

Jeff Moore: The biggest thing that sets them apart is the foot speed. Albies is a plus-plus runner while Torres is actually closer to average. That may limit Torres ability to remain at shortstop, where his actions are smooth but his range is somewhat limited already. If that's the case he'll need to slide over to second base. It also gives Albies more potential base running value.

Steve (Philly): No MLU today? You guys are so lazy.

Jeff Moore: I can see the sarcasm font from here. I didn't want to take away from the Top 50 content but tomorrow's edition will be a 4-day behemoth.

Nathan (Grand Rapids): I have a question regarding Josh Bell. He's been very impressive in AA this year, sporting both a K and BB of 10.6% while hitting .312. This is all very encouraging, but the power, a big part of his prospect profile, just hasn't shown up. He has just 3 HRs over the first half of the season. Is this cause for concern, or is the expectation that the power will play eventually? I know he has solid raw power, but when will it start to show up in games? Is there any way to predict whether this will actually happen or not? Thanks!

Jeff Moore: Bell was a difficult ranking because we really like him as a hitter but he's really going to need to hit his power ceiling in order to play at either 1B or RF, neither of which he is particularly adept at. He's shown some power in the past, so we know it's in there, but we were hoping for more of a step forward than what we've seen this year. Still, his hit tool is pretty strong and we've seen some power production so we didn't dock him too much.

Jeff Moore: Probably not as close as he should have been. We had a few guys make a case for him and he is comparable with some of the pitchers on the back end of the list, so he's a guy you could see jump between now and our off-season list.

j (OR): They aren't *too* far apart in the rankings, but what puts Jose Berrios over Luis Severino? They seem to have pretty similar profiles.

Jeff Moore: I don't have any questions about Berrios being able to remain a starter while there are some who still question whether or not Severino will be able to stick in a rotation. He's proving those doubters more and more wrong with each start closer to the big leagues, but I don't have any concerns about Berrios sticking.

Patriot (America): One of the questions I had leading up to today's release of the list, was how the MI situation will play out for the Nationals in regards to Wilmer Difo and Trea Turner. Did Turner's addition play a role in Difo not making the list? Who moves off short? And finally, is it possible we see both starting up the middle by this time next year?

Jeff Moore: Good question. We try not to factor organization depth into our rankings. For instance, there's no way Jose Peraza plays much shortstop in Atlanta with Andrelton Simmons still in town, but he is capable of handling it. So no, Turner's presence didn't factor into Difo's rankings. We really like Difo, and I personally believe he can handle shortstop. The Nationals seem pretty set on at least splitting his time, though that has as much to do with their up in the air future up the middle as anything (Desmond being a mess and potentially leaving, Espinosa hitting more, Turner, etc.). It can't hurt to have him playing both.

Ben (AZ): Seems like Joe Ross was a big omission despite a few really liking him before this year. This year he has only shown more improvement in throwing strikes and his slider looked flat out dirty in the majors. Seemed like a lock for the top 50, if not the top 25. What am I missing?

Jeff Moore: Despite his two game stint in the majors, the ceiling isn't all that high. It's a mid-rotation ceiling, which is quite good, but if he made it he would have been in the back end and there were some higher-ceiling arms that we liked a little better in that 35-50 range.

Michael Conforto (Binghamton): What have I not shown this year to make me a top 50 guy?

Jeff Moore: Lots of questions and comments about Conforto's omission, so I'll address them right here. Conforto is a nice prospect, but he was never really in strong consideration for this list. He's almost all bat at this point (he's not a bad left fielder, but it's his only position and he's not an asset out there either) and the bat isn't elite. Of the other guys who are corner OF only guys like Piscotty and Winker (who I think most favorably fit Conforto's profile) he's missing some tools that they have to offer. Piscotty, for example, has a plus arm and a better pure hit tool. Winker's hit tool is better as well. In the end, that's a tough profile in order to make the list anyway, and he just didn't stack up with the other similar players who did make the cut.

Let me toss this out there though, because it's the question I always ask the team when someone wants to make a case for a player off the list...who would you take off to make room for him?

Peter (Florida): Have you seen enough of Schwarber's defense recently to say whether he's improved or not? I keep hearing that as a defender he's become 'invisible' (in the good way), but those are all from site devoted to the Cubs as it is and I was curious to get an outsiders opinion.

Jeff Moore: I haven't seen it since last year in the Florida State League, when I was on board as saying I didn't think it was nearly as bad as advertised. I thought at the time that he could handle catching at least part time, perhaps 1-2 times per week or 40-50 games per year. I talked to a scout just this week who said "he's getting better." He'll never be an asset, and I don't think he'll get to the point where he's catching every day, but as long as he's not costing his pitchers a ton of strikes, I think he'll be able to do it part time.

The big question is whether the Cubs will continue to be patient enough to let him get there or if the draw of his bat will force them to give in.

Davin (Pittsburgh): What do most scouts value-
Experience at AA or above, high floor, high ceiling, age appropriate for level, projection for physical tools?

Jeff Moore: Every scout is different. Some prefer high ceiling, some like the safety of high floor. We try to find as much of a balance as possible. Being closer to the majors doesn't matter as much as having proved your skills will work against better competition. We tend to lean towards high ceiling a lot, but we have plenty of high floor guys ranked aggressively as well. Look no further than McGuire over Alfaro. The sure thing won out on that one. In other cases, the ceiling won. Every case is handled differently.

Pelecos (Chicago): Hey Jeff, thanks for the chat. Having seen both, I just can't believe Torres is ranked ahead of Blair. And that's from a lifelong Cubs fan. Blair's polish and above average stuff could definitely play in the majors, so what was thinking of ranking some low-level prospects ahead of him?

Jeff Moore: That's a good example of taking ceiling and projection over proximity and floor. You're not wrong, and there was a case for Blair in that very spot. In the end, it just came down to a discussion between our team to decide who we wanted to be more aggressive with and we just liked what Torres had to offer.

MP (KY): Jeff, did Jomar Reyes or Forrest Wall get much consideration? Perhaps their injuries hindered them? Where might they fall by season's end?

Jeff Moore: Reyes got some consideration, but ultimately I think the injuries got him, at least on this particular list. I'm sure he'll be in the 101, though.

Marcos (Florida): In your "just missed" piece, Mellen writes how he feels Rosario has a good deal of physical projection while you have said before you dont think his body will change much. Do you guys disagree on that or is it just a different way of approaching the same thing? Do Mellen and the rest of the crew have a higher future opinion of Rosario?

Jeff Moore: A little bit of both. Rosario does have some physical projection in front of him because he's extremely skinny. It's something we say about a lot of young, thin players, especially ones with a tall frame. In Rosario's case, I'm a little worried about just how much additional weight his frame can hold, but he's going to need to add some in order to be more of an offensive threat.

Davin (Pittsburgh): Seems the Giants have about a half-dozen arms with decent potential.
Why Beede over the others?

Spencer (ON): Your thoughts on when Nomar Mazara will make The Show and what peak year might look like? Thanks!

Jeff Moore: The way this year is going, I'm surprised he's not already in the majors, and the way this list went, I'm really surprised it didn't happen last night immediately after I sent it to editing.

In truth, it would be early, even though he's been fantastic this year. Remember he skipped over High-A ball to get to Double-A. Jumping him to the majors from here would represent a really dramatic rise in competition level in a short period. He may actually be able to handle it, that's how good he's been, but it seems like a lot to unnecessarily throw at a player.

Jeremy (Philly): JP Crawford - the number 1 prospect to start next season?

Jeff Moore: Yes, he got some love and has been a fast riser in discussions. He'll be a 101 guy, I would imagine.

Davin (Pttisburgh): Yea drove past Wings, Suds, and Spuds this morning!
What org has done a better job of developing and/or drafting in the past year or two?
A few that come to mind are Brewers, Mets. (Not referring to those with endless $$)

Jeff Moore: Hard to beat what the Cardinals do in terms of drafting and development. I know that's not what anyone from Pittsburgh wants to hear and my wife would kill me if she heard me say that, but luckily she doesn't read my chats, or anything else I write for that matter.

Joe (Ohio): Did A.J. Reed get any consideration? Was he more heavily discounted due to his defensive value, hitting in the CAL-league, or his overall skill set?

Jeff Moore: He was mentioned by some of our west coast guys who have seen him dominate the Cal League this season, but even they seem to be concerned that he's taking advantage of inferior pitching and a strong hitting environment. Of course a couple strong weeks in Double-A once he gets promoted could easily put those concerns to rest.

Jeff Moore: Tucker and I both really like Guerra, but his bat is just far enough away to not have quite gotten strong consideration for this list. He's not going away though. Urena didn't really get mentioned, but it's a similar situation.

Davin (Pittsburgh): There is such demand for lists like this, and I'm sure the site has a ton of views and comments already today.
Why not do more/expanded lists mid season? Top 10 by position, by team, a top 101, etc?
Or is it the McRib theory of it would lose its special-ness.

Jeff Moore: The McRib theory, I like that. I don't know if it would lose it's special-ness so much as it would lose all accuracy and credibility. As we've said many times, the further down this list we go the more ambiguous it gets. The difference between 40 and 50 and the guys just off the list simply isn't that great and a strong case could be made for any of them over one another. When you break down things even further, we put things at an even greater risk of that happening. Also, if we do them too often we risk moving too greatly with the tides.

Jeff Moore: You're asking about him, so it must be going ok. In all honesty, I never meant to campaign for him or any other player. I just happened to see him a lot and really like him and he's a guy no one was talking about so he became "my guy." He's hit a little speed bump in Double-A, but he'll be just fine. He's young.

bdiamond (CT): How far off was Alex Jackson from the top-50? Seems like he's getting his stroke back in Everett, could the issues have been partially from the shoulder injury?

Jeff Moore: Jackson wasn't even mentioned in our discussion, though that's as much because of his struggles this season as anything, His talent level hasn't changed, though the general analysis of the advancement of his hit tool seems to have taken a step back. There's just a lot of pressure on his bat now that he's an OF and he hasn't shown that it's going to play yet which means we would have had to be REALLY sure it's going to in order to justify him on this list.

Pickles (Tongue of Bubble Bass): Nimmo was an almost... Shouldn't he be nowhere close based on his production this year repeating double a? What have scouts been saying about him lately?

Jeff Moore: First off, he's not really repeating the level. That's term is typically reserved for a player who spent an entire year somewhere and had to return. He was only in Double-A for half of last year and that's exactly where he should be this year. Scouts don't rave about him because he doesn't offer standout tools, but I'm still very much a believer in the approach at the plate being able to help the hit tool play up as well as believing that he can remain in center field at least through his 20's. He deserved the consideration he received and was justifiably knocked off in favor of some guys with some more upside.

Bennybizness (Pittsburgh): How much did Dahl's injury effect his positioning? Or was he looking at mid20's anyway?

Jeff Moore: It might have cost him a spot or two but he wasn't going to be much higher than that. Perhaps if he had been on the field and been tearing it up he might have risen some, but in general that's where he was going to be. We didn't dock him much for it but, so if anything it just prevented him from being able to make a better case for himself.

LoyalRoyal (Kansas, USA): Lots of fast risers on this list. Who are some of your best bets for continuing their ascent to the top of this list or to the majors this season? Is it high tool types such as Manuel Margot or Nick Williams or more polished types like an Aaron Nola?

Jeff Moore: I can't imagine Nola goes a whole lot further up, mainly because he'll probably be in the majors before the season is out. This could easily be his last list.

Margot is a candidate to rise, as is his fellow organization-mate Rafael Devers. That guy may have the best hit tool/power combo on this list. Williams has also made great strides this season, showing a rare improvement in his approach and patience and even converting me. I've been one of the most outspoken guys against Williams in the past simply because we almost never see this kind of change from a guy this far into his development, but far be it for me to ignore it when it happens and kudos to Williams for figuring it out, at least to some extent. I'm in.

Steve (Grand Rapids): Would Buxton still be No 1 if eligible? Injured again, time to worry about his ability to stay healthy?

Jeff Moore: Yes, he almost certainly would have still been number one, though as long as we're engaging in hypotheticals, if Carlos Correa had also still been eligible I would have yelled and screamed for him to surpass him (probably to no avail). It may be time to have some concern about his ability to stay on the field just because it continues to happen, but being "injury-prone" has a way of disappearing and being forgotten once a guy is healthy for a few years in a row. Don't worry too much...yet.

Jeff Moore: I have a feeling we'll have some guys make a case for him on the 101.

Bennybizness (Pittsburgh): It's nice of you to answer all of Davin's questions and make him less salty for the fact that I own significantly more names in our NL only dynasty than he does. 11 (11!!!) to be exact. One of which is Dahl. How much did the injury effect his ranking? Should owners be worried moving forward?

Jeff Moore: I seem to have fallen into some Yinzer fantasy league black hole.

bdiamond (NY): There was a blurb on BP about Gilbert Lara sticking at SS, which totally shocked me, but if he can stick, he could be a star. Was there any consideration for him making the top-50? He's 17 and hitting like .450 in AZL League.

Jeff Moore: That was a quote from a scout, so it should be considered, but remember that scouts are people too and they are bound to have opinions that are outliers. In fact, it happens quite often. The general majority about Lara is that he will not be able to stick at short, but if at least one scout believes so, then who knows. Stranger things have happened.

No, he didn't get any real consideration, however, simply because of how far away he is. Will be in the 101 though.

MP (KY): I really like Braxton Davidson from Atlanta. I know he was on the list of guys that just missed. What type of major leaguer can he be? High OBP - mediocre power?

Jeff Moore: That's probably the profile, though he'll need the power to play because he's not a guy who is going to offer much defensively.

Steve (Philly): Have they kicked you out of Starbucks for loitering yet?

Jeff Moore: I still made a purchase. Plus I'm here a lot.

Carlos (Long Island): Do you think the Mets aggressive move to have Rosario skip Hi-A has hurt him at all? Is the fact that he's holding his own in St. Lucie a big thing in his favor?

Jeff Moore: Yes, he's surviving it ok, I just don't get the benefit from doing it. The same can't be said about Jhoan Urena, who I really like as a player but has looked lost this year. He's drowning in St. Lucie right now.

Matt (Chicago): PIT, BOS, TEX, COL stood out organizationally, in the rankings.Are there any orgs that weren't as well represented in the top 50 but may have really good depth?

Jeff Moore: STL had two guys in the top 50 and while they don't have quite the high-end talent as some of the orgs you mentioned, they do have a ton of depth. They have four potential big league starters in the Palm Beach rotation alone.

Jeff Moore: He's a former top-50 guy so I'll allow it. Yeah, he's hitting, but who knows how that is going to translate at this point. He's hit in the minors before. That said, the Mariners aren't exactly ripping the cover off the ball. It's probably worth a shot.

Carlos (Long Island): Well, Urena aint gonna have much of a chance to get better. He's now been out for 1.5 months and might not play again this season.....

Jeff Moore: Also a valid point. This will go down as a lost year for Urena for a number of reasons. Luckily he's young.

Ryan (Chicago): You mentioned in your notes that Mondesi ranks much higher than Arcia because he's a bit younger with more power potential. How much more power? How would you deceptive the gap in their offensive profiles?

Jeff Moore: The gap in power isn't that drastic, but the developmental time remaining is. Mondesi is a full year younger at the same level. He also has more speed, and that's not a knock on Arcia. Mondesi has more speed than most people. The gap overall isn't all that huge, but Mondesi is a tick better almost across the board, raising the overall profile.

Steve (NY): How many steals does Jorge Mateo need to finish the year with to crack the top half of next year's 101?

Jeff Moore: His stolen base total is irrelevant in my mind. We already know that he's fast and stolen bases in the low minors are at least as much a product of exploiting bad pitchers and catchers as anything else. I mean Reese McGuire has 11 stolen bases for crying out loud. What I'm much more concerned with is the development of the hit tool.

Shane (Miami): On the prospect 101 there was some love from Tucker Blair on Jomar Reyes. What kind of power/hit tool at maturity would expect from him?

Jeff Moore: I haven't seen Reyes yet but here's Tucker's report. He loves Reyes and he's a good scout, so I'm in on him based on what he's told me.

Tim (Twin Cities): Would Jose Berrios' ceiling compare to E. Rodriguez (BOS), and do you expect Berrios to impact in the 2nd half?

Jeff Moore: I think Berrios' ceiling is higher. Rodriguez has come back down to Earth a little after his ridiculously hot start in the majors. His ceiling never changed and I always had Berrios as a little better.

grimoren189 (Houston): What have you seen that's really impressed you about Bradley Zimmer? Seemed to be a stock that's risen quite quickly.

Jeff Moore: The Indians affiliates dont come into my backyard, so I haven't seen him yet, but our guys who have really liked the approach, gave him a little more power than we had expected and liked his ability to stick in center field. The latter really pushed him up the list.

Steve (Toronto): Sean Reid-Foley has produced some nice K/9 numbers so far, but how concerned are you with his command? The walks are very high, in my opinion, but I'm not sure if it's something that has shown signs of improving.

Jeff Moore: Reid-Foley just got promoted to Dunedin, so I should get a look at him soon, but yes, the walks are concerning and his command was a major issue in the draft. There are some scouts who hated his mechanics.

Vinny (Lansing): Are scouts optimistic that A. Reyes can improve his command far enough to be a #2 SP because of the strong track record STL has in developing arms?

Jeff Moore: I am. Scouts are somewhat split, but I've seem do it this year for stretches. Unlike some pitchers whose mechanics get in the way of command, Reyes mechanics are actually quite sound. He just tries to overthrow too often and it makes him erratic. But I've seen him get in that rocking chair and command the fastball for short stretches and when he does, he's unhittable. He's also a really good athlete. I'm really not worried about him remaining a starter. I'm personally extremely high on Reyes.

Steve (Your Backyard): Which organization do you wish would come into your backyard?
Of all the franchises not represented in your general vicinity, who would you most like to see taking a franchise in the area for you to regularly scout?

Jeff Moore: I'm sad that the Cubs left the Florida State League because they've been a stacked organization for a little while now. I'd also love to get a better look at the Dodgers since they're putting all kinds of money into the international market. That's going to be a fun org to follow in about 2 years.

Brandon (Vancouver): Norris struggled in MLB, and has seemingly (from afar) struggled with consistency in AAA as well. Why did he move up to the top 10 given this?

Jeff Moore: Norris' ability hasnt changed since our off-season rankings, and that's what we base these lists on. Lots of guys struggle in their first taste of the big leagues and do just fine. He was also moved along pretty quickly in the minors and didnt struggle all that badly in the big leagues. There's still a lot to like and being demoted doesnt change that.

eddiecomic (NYC): Would have any of the July 2nd International Draft picks made the list?

Jeff Moore: I'm sure a number would have but their lack of a track record makes it extremely difficult. Moncada himself was difficult enough and we know a lot more about him and he's older. There's just no way to do it accurately without making too many uneducated guesses and assumption. Mellen and I discussed this on the podcast today.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26873

Hal (Boston): With Gallo and Sano now ineligible, who are the the top 3-5 prospects with the most useable power in the minors?

Jeff Moore: Well Gallo still made it, but i get your questions. Mazara has some serious raw that he's using more and more. Devers can really let it fly too. Futures Game BP is gonna be a lot of fun.

Hal (Cooperstown): Have you gotten to see any GCL yet? Anyone pop out at you?

Jeff Moore: Yep, hit a few last week. I like Ali Sanchez of the Mets, though I'm not sold his arm is going to stick behind the plate. Like the bat though.

Jeff (STL): Seems like STL could use Piscotty soon. Could you give us one or two MLB comps for the type of offensive profile Piscotty might have?

Jeff Moore: He'd already be in the majors in most orgs. It's an ave-based, moderate power profile in RF, but he's going to be a good defender there. It might not be all that different than Jason Heyward, to be honest.

Giancarlo (Gville): I've heard from some people that the allure of going and seeing minor league games can be eventually lost if you go enough. Thankfully this hasn't been the case for me yet, but is there anyway to avoid this from happening and is it legit?

Jeff Moore: Those people aren't doing it right then. There's always something to see, especially at a minor league game. If you're losing interest, hit one of us on Twitter and ask us who to watch at a particular game. We'll help you out. or when in doubt, find out when it's dollar beer night or 11-pound hot dog night or something wacky at a minor league game. There's always something going on.

What's the Story (Morning Glory?): No mention of Trevor Story? Thought he would have been in the 40-50 range.

Jeff Moore: I really like Story but he has some holes. He probably could have been a just missed guy but he'll be in the 101 discussion. He's going to be a nice player. Lots of good players not on this list.

Eric (Boston): When looking at body types of 16 year old IFA's, how do you know (and scouts in general) the difference between two kids that are both 6' 175lbs and what they will grow into?

Jeff Moore: It's tough, mainly because we don't KNOW anything, and then organizations are asked to make million dollar decisions based on those guesses. That's why the international market is so hit or miss and more and more teams are taking the quantity over quality approach.

Specifically for body types, however, I look for things like shoulder width, high waist, calves, etc. Guys with narrow shoulders are gong to have trouble putting on upper body weight. Guys with long legs won't need as much strength in their upper bodies to create leverage down the road and have a better overall frame (think Gregory Polanco). A guy with cankles won't be a quick twitch athlete and will have trouble staying up the middle. It's very inexact.

edwar288 (Minneapolis, MN): Did injuries to Hunter Harvey and Jorge Alfaro ding their rankings? Could they have been higher if healthy?

Jeff Moore: More so for Harvey than Alfaro because Harvey hasn't played all season. The developmental time missed by Alfaro is big though, as he needs all the at-bats and defensive reps he can get. Staying on the field always gives a player an opportunity to make a stronger case for himself, so yes they both could have been higher. It don't cost them too many spots though.

Kim (LA): Correa looks like a beast. We can't expect Seager to be this good, can we?

Jeff Moore: No, I had a scout tell me that Correa is a potential hall of famer, which is one of those things you're never supposed to say about a player. He's going to become one of those guys who you shouldn't comp any prospect to because it's unfair.

davin (Pittsburgh): Any relievers get any consideration at all?
Any natural 1bs? ( J Bell is this year)

Jeff Moore: It's tough to get a relief profile into the top 50. We signed guys who are currently starters just for having questions about having to become relievers, though at least they have a chance to start. Any guy who is a reliever only really has to be dominant, and even then they wouldn't get much higher than the back end of this list.

Bell is the only 1B, and he can play OF too. We don't exclude 1B's on purpose, but the bat really has to be a sure thing so it's tough.

Jeff Moore: That's going to do it for today. Thanks for the great questions and the interest and generally positive reaction to our list and articles. We love the interaction.