Charter School students pit weather prediction skills against groundhog

Photo by Daniel Freel/New Jersey Herald - Sixth-grade science teacher Jillian Bowne works with student Alexandra Perez as classmate Bethann Juhr, left, types away. They were working on a weather assignment Thursday at the Sussex County Charter School for Technology in Sparta.

SPARTA -- There were legends to be explored, weather charts to view, meteorological instruments to make and a poll to be taken; all brought to the students at Sussex County Charter School for Technology by a new principal who has his own popular weather blog.

And all to celebrate that grandest of holidays, Groundhog Day.

For much of the past decade, C. Mark Edgerton II has produced a daily weather blog (www.edgeweather.com), which can get up to 50,000 hits a day when a winter storm is approaching. On an average day, about 5,000 people look in to see what he is reading in the clouds and his interpretation of the reams of computer data being produced around the world.

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Students were asked Thursday if they thought Punxsutawney Phil would see his shadow today. The majority, 55.2 percent, were correct. The famous groundhog saw his shadow and predicted 6 more weeks of winter.

Edgerton was hired as the principal at the public school in July and brought with him his love of the science of meteorology. He decided to integrate that science into the school's science curriculum. The state curriculum guidelines allow room to bring in additional learning opportunities, and it's more than just the science teachers who picked up on the weather theme.

The school now has its own weather station with a camera pointed east across fields, with a 24/7 view of the weather outside. That view, as well as current conditions, can be found through the Weather Stem app at www.weatherstem.com/.

In a science classroom on Thursday, the National Weather Service forecast page was projected on a wall; a television monitor showed the data coming from the weather station, and the teacher was quizzing students on what kinds of weather instruments can be used to forecast the weather.

Outside on a picnic table sat homemade precipitation gauges.

"Sorry, they're still frozen so we can't collect data today," the teacher told the class.

With today being a semi-official meteorologic holiday, there were also forecasts to be made and polls to be taken in preparation for the arrival of the chief furry prognosticator (CFP), and his imitators, who can tell at a glance -- so the legend goes -- whether we humans will have six more weeks of winter or an early spring.

On Thursday, the school's hallways sported signs reminding students to vote on two questions: Will CFP Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? and, Do you believe that a groundhog is a good predictor of the weather?

Edgerton's own forecast, based on actual weather charts, was a 40 percent chance that Sussex County's own Stonewall Jackson at Space Farms Zoo and Museum in Wantage would be able to see his shadow and a 60 percent chance for CFP Phil to see his shadow in western Pennsylvania.

But, as someone who studies the charts would know, "Over the years, he has 'seen' his shadow 85 percent of the time," Edgerton said.

The official poll of students showed a close vote of 55.2 percent versus 44.8 percent as to whether Phil would see his shadow.

In the vote on whether a groundhog makes a good forecaster, even on so general a question as to whether spring is around the corner or six weeks away, more than 75 percent of the student body gave a thumbs-down to Phil's prognostication power.

But what about other animals and their legends?

English teacher Imogen Myslinski brought the legend of a groundhog into her classroom.

"We looked at the history and read articles about groundhogs," she said. "Then we looked at creative myths and legends and the superstitions around them."

And, as a final exercise, she asked her sixth-grade students to pick an animal and create a predictive legend to share with the class.

One student wrote about the 1950s near Dublin, Ireland, a young girl and Billy Lemon, the goat.

"If Billy turns his back and bleats 'baaaa,' it's going to be a bad day," Myslinski said with a twinkle in her eye. "But if he comes up to you and puts his front feet on your shoulder, it'll be a good day."

And, she asked, "Did you know a unicorn's horn can change colors? Gray and it's a bad sign; rainbow is good."

Those stories are as good as the legend of groundhogs.

Calendar-wise, Feb. 2 is about halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, an important time in the old Celtic and Germanic tribes whose calendar was marked not by months, but by the seasons.

The Christian faith adopted that celebration into the time when Jesus was presented in the temple and later into Candlemas, when the newly made candles were blessed.

Groundhogs, which hibernate much of the winter, also become active on the relatively warm days in late January and early February, with the males moving from burrow to burrow looking for a mate before going back to sleep for the next few weeks until the fresh grass of spring sprouts.

The Germanic legends of groundhogs seeing their shadow as they came above ground came with the European immigrants to western Pennsylvania. The legend about Punxsutawney Phil began in 1888 with the local newspaper editor prevailing on the local Groundhog Club, made up of hunters, to go to Gobbler's Knob to check on whether spring was near.

They have gone to that same knob nearly every year since. Early this morning, the "eternal" Phil will be lifted and shown to the crowd and someone from the Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club will translate.

Six more weeks of winter or an early spring? Officially, spring arrives this year at 6:29 a.m. EDT on March 20.

Bruce A. Scruton can also be contacted on Twitter: @brucescrutonNJH or by phone: 973-383-1224.

Editor's Note: This article has been corrected to reflect that Sussex County Charter School for Technology is a public school.

Students' opinons: Can a groundhog predict the weather?

Students at Sussex County Charter School for Technology, grades 6,7 and 8, were asked if they believe that a groundhog is a good predictor of the weather and why.

In the survey where 125 responded, 21.6 percent said yes, while 78.4 percent said no.

A selection of student explanations are included below.

YES

— Groundhogs live underground, which means that they could probably feel the weather from under them from the pressure.

— I think that the groundhog is a good predictor of the weather because some animals are very smart, so there is a possibility it could be.

— Yes, because, one, it is a tradition and, two, groundhogs are scared of their shadow.

— I think that the groundhog is a good way to predict the weather because it has been right in the past.

— I like winter and the groundhog is a great way to predict the weather.

— I like to believe in fun ideas, and I make sure I do.

— I think groundhogs are good weather predictors, because they are usually very accurate on groundhog's day.

— Well I say yes and no because it is all according to the weather that day and luck.

— Groundhogs are good at predicting the weather because they are natural and they have instincts that can tell them whether they are going to survive and flourish during the springtime.

— I think this because I looked at the weather forecast.

NO

— Because they are only 30 percent right, so you have a better chance on predicting it by flipping a coin.

— I chose no because we have learned it is based on whether the sun is out or not to see if the groundhog will see his shadow.

— A groundhog is just an animal and there is an official day when spring is here. It is March 20.

— Phil has only been right 30 percent of the time.

— It's just an animal. They cannot predict the weather depending on if they see their shadow or not.

— Because he is a groundhog, and he is not very smart.

— I don't think so because the groundhog has no idea what the weather is or how to predict it.

— A groundhog should not be a weatherman.

He is not accurate because he doesn't have enough intelligence to do the job.

— Anyone should be able to see their shadow that day, why should it be one specific groundhog?

— He's an animal and it's not his choice.

— They always switch the groundhog. You never know if it's right anyway and it's still really cold out.

— It is just a myth.

— Regardless, there will be six weeks before the official spring comes.

— I don't believe in this, because it is impossible for a rodent to predict the weather and get it right every time.

— I believe that groundhogs are simple-minded creatures that can not magically predict the weather. This is a dumb rumor that was later turned into a holiday and then a movie. Our nation is falling apart because of these idiotic acts of unintelligent beings.

— It is just a groundhog and when have we EVER had an early spring?

— Groundhogs can't create weather or predict the weather.

— I don't think he'll see his shadow because the weatherbug says there is snow.

— It's an animal, it's not magic.

— No, because you can't just base seasons off of an animal getting scared of its shadow or not.

— He isn't because, he's only right 30 percent of the time. How is that good if it's 30 percent out of a 100 percent?

— It is just some tradition for entertainment, not for weather.

— It's a groundhog, dude.

— A groundhog can't predict the weather because humans have more technology to be accurate about it and groundhogs don't have any technology.

— I don't believe that a groundhog is a good predictor of the weather because well, it's a groundhog. It's not scientific, and it's not foolproof. It's just a groundhog looking at its shadow.

— A weather person is much better than an animal and its shadow.

— He is just a groundhog and does not know anything about weather.

— I think that using a groundhog to predict the weather is a little weird. I mean it works, but why not use something like a lion standing on a whale jumping over the sun causing a total eclipse.