Thursday, May 28, 2009

Sondage Says...

It's been a busy week for political polls...I'll have the May poll dance up by week's end, but with two Quebec-only polls in field at the same time, this is a good chance to take a close look at a province which is all too often overlooked by both pundits and politicians - Quebec.

Leger, CROP, and Ipsoswere all in field last week - if we take a weighted average based on their Quebec samples, we get the following:

Liberals 35%Bloc 35%CPC 14%NDP 13%

Pas pire, no matter how you slice it, considering the Liberals have generally been about 15 points back of the Bloc in all three post-Chretien elections (although they did hit 34% in 2004).

I haven't been able to see the regional tables at all, but the CROP poll does detail the collapse of Harper's Quebec City Fortress:

The Liberals haven't won a seat in Quebec City since 2000, and finished third in every riding there last election - usually well over 10,000 votes behind. With little organization in the region, they'll clearly have to put some resources into it - all the more evidence why it makes sense to have a 308 riding strategy, where you at least have a base level of organization in every riding that can be mobilized when things like this happen.

So what does this all mean electorally? Well, it's too early to tell, but a real quick and dirty seat projection based on the 2008 results shows the Liberals poised to win between 20-30 seats in Quebec. And that's just the way the Quebec map usually plays out - in the 1997 election for instance, the Bloc edged the Liberals 38% to 37%, but beat them on seats 44 to 26.

So while these gains are nice, they also show the 66-seat gap won't be closed in Quebec alone. Even in the best-case Quebec scenario, the Liberals will need to flip at least 20-25 seats elsewhere, in order to get back to government. (certainly doable, given stories like this)

Harper's collapse in Quebec is not that bad for him. It means that the Bloc has no incentive to defeat the Tories. So long as Harper can prevent defections from his Quebec MP's he can wait out the recession.

In a fall 2009 election (or earlier), Harper is doomed. In a fall 2010 election, Harper would win a majority. In between those dates it is anybody's guess.

I think Harper will do what it takes to keep his government alive as well. Why? Combating the recession isn't just about surviving the next election. How he deals with the recession will also be his most important legacy as PM.