Initial reports on contracts are always crazy, and the raw total of money is rarely indicative of what the real value of the contract is, but that’s all that’s been released for this deal so far, and it’s a reported four-year deal for $72 million. That $18 million average would be around
Tony Romo and Matthew Stafford for the 15th-highest average annual value for quarterbacks, per Spotrac.

Osweiler gives hope in theory, but in reality, there’s only so much we know about his level of play. Filling in for Manning, Osweiler dropped back 298 times last season, the 32nd-most among quarterbacks in 2015. That’s not a huge sample to work with, but that’s what we got, and it’s the sample we’re going to examine.

Incoming vs. Incumbent

During Osweiler’s time as a starter in 2015, he was a fairly average quarterback by our
Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. NEP, for the uninitiated, measures the value of each play on the field based on how an average team would be expected to score in each scenario using historical data.

46 quarterbacks dropped back at least 100 times last season. Among that group, the average Passing NEP per drop back was 0.113. Osweiler’s Passing NEP per drop back during 2015 was 0.077.

While Osweiler was merely average in in Passing NEP per drop back, he came out more favorably in
Successful Completion Percentage, which measures the amount of passing attempts that resulted in plays that positively impacted NEP. 52.3 percent of Osweiler’s attempts resulted in a “success,” the ninth-highest total among quarterback. He also had the seventh-lowest rate of Failed Completions, which are completed passes that did not lead to positive NEP.

While that might shine some favorable light on Osweiler, it’s not far off from what Hoyer did last season either. Hoyer was 11th in Successful Completion Percentage and had the 5th-lowest rate of Failed Completions. Statistically, the two quarterbacks weren’t far off from each other:

2015

Dropbacks

PNEP/DB

SuccComp%

Failed Completions

TD%

INT%

Brock Osweiler

298

0.07

52.0%

9.10%

3.6%

2.2%

Brian Hoyer

394

0.1

51.8%

8.5%

5.1%

1.9%

Osweiler has a clear age advantage -- he’ll be 26 years old in November -- but there was not much in his on field play that suggests he should be valued this much more than Hoyer.

As Hoyer did, Osweiler will get the benefit of playing with
DeAndre Hopkins, who has made himself fairly quarterback proof in his development. Hopkins was 12th among 32 receivers with at least 100 targets in Reception NEP per target for 2015. With a quarterback statistically similar to what Hoyer produced last season, Hopkins will likely again be the bright spot of the Houston offense.

In Denver, Osweiler also was aided by the best defense in the league, which did not put him in a position to need to score a lot of points on offense. It likely won’t be to that extent in Houston, but the Texans aren’t far off. Houston ranked third in Adjusted NEP per play on defense last year behind the Broncos and Carolina Panthers.

What the Texans are betting on here is development from Osweiler with more playing time. He’s still young and has the tools many would look for in a quarterback prospect. In his short time as a starter in 2015 it didn’t necessarily provide overly positive results, but there’s time to grow. Brian Hoyer at this point is Brian Hoyer.

Statistically, Osweiler is very similar to Hoyer, but the potential to be more is what Houston is buying. They’re paying a hefty price, though, to find out.

A Void Left Behind

What makes Osweiler’s departure from Denver truly interesting -- more than what it means for the Texans' offense -- is what the Broncos will do to fill a now vacant depth chart at quarterback. As it stands right now,
Trevor Siemian is the lone quarterback on Denver’s active roster. We can probably assume that’s not going to last.

Kaepernick would also benefit from this type of system, but acquiring him would mean a trade is needed.

Griffin, of course, did not play during the 2015 season, while Kaepernick was one of the league’s worst quarterbacks in a year that saw little go right for the 49ers. Kaepernick was 40th in Passing NEP per drop back, though his replacement Blaine Gabbert was only one spot ahead.

These two likely aren’t the only two players the Broncos will consider for their open quarterback job. However they decide to attack it, it should be fascinating to watch. The last time the Broncos were looking for a new starting quarterback, they ended up with Peyton Manning. Don’t undersell the impact John Elway could have.