I think that is a valid point Switters. The reality is that some of the big-market teams, like LAD, NYY, BOS, etc. may shy away from even looking at Greinke because his personality would not be a great fit with them. Like it or not, GMs will take into consideration that Hamels is more experienced in a big, media-heavy market.

I thought about putting that in the article, but I agreed with Switters. Greinke seems to have moved past those issues, and I don’t think he should be penalized for being “different.”

Unfortunately, I do think some teams might shy away from him for that reason. And even though Hamels hasn’t produced as much value as Greinke, this is the main reason I could see Hamels making more on the market.

Hamels plays “old school baseball” so maybe that “grit” will get him an extra $10 in his contract. I’m sure Dusty Baker, Clint Hurdle, and other delusional managers will want a guy like that. #SarcasmFont

The WAR based comparison to Greinke says more about fWAR than the two pitchers relative talent and their likely future market imo. Greinke is a significant example of a player who has pitched below his peripherals the last few years. If you look at rWAR the edge clearly goes to Hamels.

I don’t want to make this just another whose WAR is better loop, but I’d bet a fair amount that Hamels will receive a more lucrative contract if both become FAs. The market will likely prefer the rWAR narrative to the fWAR one.

But the other interesting thing that skews the comparison is Greinke’s huge edge in their respective age 25 seasons where even by rWAR Greinke’s 10.1 season dwarves anything that Hamels has done. ANy interval that includes that season will give Greinke a significant head start that is difficult to close. But – at least by rWAR – Hamels has been better – and sometimes significantly so – in every season since. We should be careful about seemingly looking at long time intervals where a single season drives the conclusion. Let’s say we average fWAR and rWAR and call the two players essentially even from ages 22-28. If we get there because Greinke was 6 WAR better in the age 25 season, but Hamels was a significant 2 WAR per season better in the next 3 seasons, then I think we’re losing information in the aggregation process. When we’re talking about committing 9 figures for these players ages 29-35 seasons how much weight should we realy be placing on their age 25 seasons?

Once you allow for the postseason, Hamels nearly closes the WAR-gap on Greinke. His career postseason stats look like they’re worth around 1.7 WAR (without making any allowance for superior opposition in the postseason), whereas Greinke’s are probably fractionally negative.

Career WAR is not a good metric for comparing the two pitchers in this context – Greinke accumulated 4.8 WAR before Hamels even made it to the majors, but teams aren’t going to compare them based on what they were each doing in 2005. It is only by coincidence of subsequent missed time by Greinke that their career WAR happens to be comparable.

How is it not fair? It’s a documented mental illness that deals with serious relapses, that get worse with age (though medication helps). It is a business decision, like paying more for a car with less miles. When comparing like models, the one who has not been ‘sick’ will always get more money.

Anything that may dampen or create doubt upon one’s performance – perceived or real – is a valid point to consider in determining a team’s offer to a player.

This is a bottom-line business, not a charitable entity. If a team thinks that Greinke’s ‘issues’ would impede future performance – and some inevitably will – then such a concern should be taken into consideration.

we’re forgetting to mention that hamels is left-handed. left handers get ginormous contracts even when comparable to right-handers because they’re a novelty. hamels will end up being the richest pitcher in all of baseball, even more than lee or sabathia.

“If we get there because Greinke was 6 WAR better in the age 25 season, but Hamels was a significant 2 WAR per season better in the next 3 seasons, then I think we’re losing information in the aggregation process.”

Agree, but even if you throw out Greinke’s amazing 2009…he actually still has accumulated more fWAR over the last 3 than Hamels…including in 2012.

I think that we are giving front offices a bit too much credit. I doubt that most front offices use WAR, fWAR or rWAR. I think that most of them look at ERA first and foremost, and then probably innings pitched as they want a workhorse. And there is some consideration of peripheral, I’m sure, but I have a feeling that ERA vastly outweighs everything else, and the other stuff comes into play only as a tie breaker.

Hamels’ ERAs in the three years before free agency are: 3.06, 2.79 and currentyly 2.17.
Greinke’s are: 4.17, 3.83, and currently 2.70.

Deservedly or not, most teams will see Hamels as a much better true talent pitcher, no matter what WAR says. And whether it is fair or not, all large market teams will have at least in the back of their heads, if not at the forefront of their considerations, that Greinke might have issues in a large market. No large market team considering sinking 150m or more into him will just dismiss that. Hamels, in this market, should make way more than Greinke, even if it is unfair.

On a separate note, I’m not sure how many large market teams will even be bidding for these guys. The Yankees have to shed payroll, not add it. The Red Sox are at the end of their payroll space. The Mets are in big financial trouble. The Phillies don’t have a ton of money to throw around, although they may pay up because Hamels is home grown. Texas probably has enough to think about with a ton of players hitting arbitration soon, not to mention getting Yu Darvish. SanFran doesn’t have the payroll space, and neither does Detroit, Anaheim, Miami (I’m assuming), and I don’t think the Cubs are ready to spend without a core of good players to build around. The Dodgers should be bidders in free agency, but other than that, it’s teams like STL, MIL, CLE, TOR, WAS, ATL. Do you see any of these teams ponying up 160 million dollars for a pitcher?

I may have picked this up reading Keith Law, but I also wonder about Hamels having future expected value in excess of Greinke because his change up is so good. It’s not a pitch that you need to muscle.

A second point is that Greinke has been unlucky during his last year and a quarter in the NL. His BABIP is .320 to Hamels’ .262. His K/9 is at (a staggering) 10.25 (vs. Hamels at 8.41. But his strand rate and HR/FB are both significantly worse than Hamels. 70.6% / 11.5% to Hamels’ 79.8% / 9.6%. The result is that Greinke’s xFIP is 2.51 vs. Hamels’ 2.99. This figures are all from 2011 through 2012 YTD.

For a little context, Greinke’s five fourths of a year of xFIP at 2.51has only been topped by Curt Schilling (2.21) and Randy Johnson (2.44) in their 2002 season.

I don’t think I had realized that Greinke is… possibly the best pitcher in baseball right now.

Precisely why Hamels will out-earn Greinke. All this talk about WAR forgets the actual pitching involved — Hamels has become consistently dominant thanks to his cutter. Hamels three years ago is irrelevant at this point. Greinke is dramatically more inconsistent between starts and has yet to duplicate his Cy year. Secondly, Hamels has a much more durable repertoire of pitches (changeup/cutter vs. slider/curve/cutter). Third, postseason success will matter to the big bidders.

Actually, I don’t think you’re giving GMs enough credit. WAR is actually now used by both agents and teams during arbitration cases, so I don’t think it is unreasonable at all for teams (other than maybe 1-2 of the really archaic ones) to review their WAR and FIP ahead of pure ERA and record.

As for large market teams, clearly the Dodgers will be in the market to add payroll after spending so much for the team and an impending monster TV deal with Fox or Time Warner. Boston is unlikely to get involved but they will sign some FAs this offseason, since they are shedding a couple of big contracts (Dice-K, buyout/trade Youkilis, Jenks). The Yankees are always possibilities, especially given the state of their rotation right now. The Cubs could use a starter too. The Nats have not been afraid of spending payroll and if they have a good rest of the year, it’d really energize the fanbase to steal another star from the divisional rival Phillies. Houston needs a front-line starter and their new TV network should give them a ton more cash.

There will be plenty of bidders for Hamels and Greinke. Hamels will go somewhere big – likely LA. I could see Greinke going to a midwestern team though, just because some bigger teams might shy away given his makeup concerns (be they perceived or real).

I agree that Cole is somewhat undervalued by this because of his recent addition of the cutter, but there is also how he wants to go back West, and limiting your contract cities is always bad for business.

Also, you might want to read up on game theory to avoid making statements like, “Cain was able to make more money even though only one team was bidding on him.” This is how you play this game: Cain has two options, sign now or wait to become a FA. If he becomes a FA, he can expect to make X, but with probability p he will get injured / flop this year and make Y. He therefore has expected payout from waiting of

E(FA payout) = p * Y + (1-p) * X

Any offer less than his expected FA payout is therefore not worth it for him. Thus the main difference between a FA contract and a extension is the size of p and how much less Y is than X. In a sense, the team can offer insurance to the player… but lets not get into risk aversion just yet. Just an acknowledgement that other teams were implicitly involved in the bidding on Cain/an extension.

The Yankees and Red Sox will add some free agents, but probably not big ones. The Yankees especially will not as they need to be under 189m by 2014 and adding Hamels or Greinke for 21-24m per year will not allow that. Houston is in no position to be buying free agents. Neither are the Cubs. Nats and Jays I could see sneaking one of them, while LAD takes the other.

And do they really use WAR in arbitration hearings? I had no idea! You may have just restored (some of) my faith in MLB!

I agree, but I don’t think he is undervalued enough to make him affordable to the Brewers or any other small market team. I think the specter of his anxiety issues will make the Yankees shy away, despite their need. Maybe Boston, as well. I think this could be a good opportunity for a undesirable destination (like Baltimore because of Pete the Theif) to be able to get him at his true value while still paying him more than other teams are offering.

Aaron (UK), the other thing to remember is that Hamels has been in the playoffs quite a lot, while Greinke spent all but one of his years with the Royals. So Greinke’s playoff numbers are a… [everyone on Fangraphs shouts out the rest of this sentence in unison].

I agree that Hamels will get paid more because 1) hes left handed and 2) he doesnt have a mental health concern stigma, but I disagree with your WAR arguments. it’s clear you’re partial to bWAR, and that’s fine (i typically am too), but I don’t think Greinke is a good example of why fWAR is flawed.

For one thing, Greinke’s ERA was lower than his FIP/xFIP counterparts in 07, 08, and 09. I personally don’t believe his 2010 strand rate are 2011 HR/FB are dangers regarding future performance. both seem like outliers to me. Even ignoring they underlying stats and going simply by WAR totals, Greinke outperformed Hamels in every year since 2008 except for last year. He’s already out fWARing him in 2012 as well, though thats splitting hairs.

I think Hamels will get more money, but not a lot more, and not necessarily for the fWAR flaws that you have pointed out.

For what it is worth, I don’t think this shows the OPs partiality to bWAR, I think the bigger point is that old-school thinkers in the game will look at statistics that correlate more nicely with the bWAR numbers when they judge the two players.

As in, they’ll see the last two seasons where Greinke has an ERA in the low 4s and another in the high 3s, while Hamels is low 3s and high 2s.

ONLY if you look at fWAR / FIP. Hamels has a better career K-rate, SwStr%, BABIP, xFIP, and SIERRA, plus the traditional stat ERA. And they both have equivalently awesome control. And Hamels’ reputation comes pitching in a major market for multiple playoff / WS teams.

I wouldn’t count Milwaukee out of the bidding entirely, especially for Grienke. They have a number of large contracts coming off the books after this season, and they offered $120 million to CC Sabathia when he was here. $150 million might be stretching them past the comfort zone, more because of the years involved rather than AAV, but I expect them to put forth a solid offer.

The Brewers have a number of large contracts coming off the books after this season. They will have the payroll flexability to retain Grienke if they wanted to. The bigger question is if they are willing to offer a contract with as many years as he will get from a team better able to absorb the contract if it doesn’t pan out.

Although purely as a pitcher I prefer Greinke, there is more than that when it comes to deciding if you should give in excess of 120 million to a player. Hamels has been very good in all his time in the majors, except for one year, so he is worth a lot of money. Factor in the mental issues for Greinke, and the fact that lefties who are aces are less common and Hamels ends up with the bigger contract. Gun to my head, the Yankees sign both of them to seven years and 140 million….

And Zito shows you why you never use career numbers to valuate a pitcher. In is first four seasons, he had 3.12 ERA, an 1.181 Whip, and a 2.10 K/W. In the last three seasons, he was 4.04, 1.330, with a 1.80 K/W. And even that overrates him as his K/W declined virtually every season, and was 1.53 in his last season. That’s Aaron Cook territory.

The SFGs might’ve actually gotten lucky. His H/IP, BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 are almost identical to his last year in Oakland. So SF is lucky that he aged well and has shown little decline.

As a psychologist (but baseball fan first), I think you need to be careful with what you say. Anxiety issues do not “get worse with age”. Mental illness is not governed by a simple arithmetic formula with a larger multiplier with reference to age. There are many factors that play into anxiety issues. Things such as medicinal intervention is only one facet of the treatment process. Beyond that, there is therapy (removing cognitive distortions), diet, excercise, environmental factors….. Anxiety is multifaceted and to be honest, a mystery in ways. The fact that he has made it back to the majors and has pitched well in recent years speaks volumes. This cannot be likened to a pitcher with a Tommy John history (something GM’s would no doubt consider). When you tear a ligament, it is torn, it can be fixed, but each successive stressor placed on that ligament is affected by the previous injury and subsequent repair. SOME mental health ailments do not work that way, anxiety being one of them. Someone can suffer from anxiety, and theoretically can manage their symptoms and not suffer from triggers (stressors) as they once did. The brain is a remarkable thing, hate to say it, but more remarkable than a ligament. While the ligament never forgets the stress it has endured, the brain has the capability to forget. Sidenote… my colleague argues with me that his anxiety still affects him because of his home/road splits. I counter that argument with two points: 1) every sports team in every sport enjoys home-field advantage… 2) does car-go have issues with anxiety

Like JaysIn2012 said, anxiety is, in many ways, a mystery. To me that means uncertainty, and there is more uncertainty with Greinke than Hamels. When you’re talking about two guys this good, it is splitting hairs, so give me the guy that doesn’t have the anxiety disorder history. Beyond that, I would pay more for Hamels because I think guys with dominant change-ups are likely to age better than guys who are more fastball/slider dependent.

If Philly is still playing .500 ball and looking kind of hopelessly old shortly before the trade deadline, don’t you have to listen to offers for Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels? Philly has multiple positions that are manned by very rapidly declining veterans and the farm system does not seem to be providing any replacements in the near future at these positions. Don’t you have to suck it up and trade these two guys for prospects, preferably some prospects who are hopefully going to be able to make the 2013 roster?

Plus, Philly has already demonstrated that it can trade away a dominant starting pitcher and, less than a year later, bring him back via free agency (Cliff Lee). So you can always try to do that again, if you really think you can afford to sign Hamels. It will be interesting to see what happens but I can’t say that I have a lot of faith in Ruben Amaro, Jr. to act rationally here.

Personally, I don’t trust pitchers past ~32 who rely heavily on speed and hard breaking stuff (Greinke). There are pitchers who can redefine their pitching styles, but I certainly trust Hamels more over the course of a six or seven year contract. Theoretically, past performance should be completely disregarded in determining these contracts.

You can’t use a FIP based statistic on Grienke, because he’s bad at controlling balls hit in play, and apparently doesn’t as pitch as well with runners on base. Juse looking at SIERA (AKA FIP for non-dummies) Hamels is the better pitcher.