__________________Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.

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There are good reasons for the dollar to be low, just as there are good reasons for oil to be so high. Both moves are overdone, IMO, as "hot money" is all betting on oil and against the dollar.

__________________

__________________"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?"-- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

Times like these always remind me of a very wise old guy I worked with, who, whenever things at work looked exceedingly good - or exceedingly bad - would calmly remark: "Things are rarely as good as you hope or as bad as you fear".

__________________Numbers is hard

Although rare, it is possible to read something on this forum you don't agree with and simply move on with your life

It has been my opinion that the fall of the US dollar is completely overdone especially Vs the Euro. The purchasing power parity between the 2 currencies is completely out of whack in my opinion, and Europe faces as many challenges if not more than the US down the road. As a percentage of GDP, the US debt (9 trillion dollars) is no larger than that of most Eurozone countries, Europe has many more costly social programs to keep funding in the future, it has generally lower growth hence lower tax revenues to pay for these programs, and European citizens are already maxed out on taxes (as high as 50% of gross income in some countries), so they can't even raise taxes to keep funding these programs. And let's not even talk about the shaky political underpinnings of the Euro as a currency. I am actually a bit hesitant to buy assets in Euros right now, because I believe that we could see the dollar snap back pretty hard sooner rather than later.

It has been my opinion that the fall of the US dollar is completely overdone especially Vs the Euro. The purchasing power parity between the 2 currencies is completely out of whack in my opinion, and Europe faces as many challenges if not more than the US down the road. As a percentage of GDP, the US debt (9 trillion dollars) is no larger than that of most Eurozone countries, Europe has many more costly social programs to keep funding in the future, it has generally lower growth hence lower tax revenues to pay for these programs, and European citizens are already maxed out on taxes (as high as 50% of gross income in some countries), so they can't even raise taxes to keep funding these programs. And let's not even talk about the shaky political underpinnings of the Euro as a currency. I am actually a bit hesitant to buy assets in Euros right now, because I believe that we could see the dollar snap back pretty hard sooner rather than later.

I tend to agree, and in fact sold the VEURX that I had in my "play account" a while back. If you are right, Ladelfina may find her dollars going farther in Italy.

__________________5/17/2018: Retired a second time, this time from my volunteer Admin duties. After 10 years of being on the team, and 40,000+ posts, the time just seemed right. It has been such fun to work with all of our Mods and Admins and I plan to stick around as a regular member.

Those countries that maintain their interest rates (Great Britain, Australia), have a better chance than those that plunge their rates towards zero(ish) like ........

Speakin' of.

There is a substantial segment of the futures community that is pricing in a 100 basis point cut on Tuesday.

Whatse got left? 200 more?

__________________Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.

Buckle up - use dollars to buy bacon and Buweiser to ride thru the rough times. If Buffett can take a position in Kraft(Oscar M. bacon) and Budweiser I can at least consider venturing some hobby money.

Times like these always remind me of a very wise old guy I worked with, who, whenever things at work looked exceedingly good - or exceedingly bad - would calmly remark: "Things are rarely as good as you hope or as bad as you fear".

One of my favorites - "95% of what you fear will never occur and the other 5% will never be as bad as you imagine."

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