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The FINAL Senate Line: The Fix Predicts

After two years of ranking the Senate races most likely to switch parties, we have reached the last Senate Line of the 2008 election. (Can you believe it?)

Below you'll find our final rankings of the races; we've included 11 total contests in this final Line because, well, there are 11 races that have real potential of switching sides on Tuesday.

Based on our best analysis, which, it should go without saying, is equal parts art and science, Democrats will pick up eight seats on Tuesday -- leaving them just a single vote short of the filibuster-proof 60 seat plateau.

Does that mean 60 seats are out of the question? Absolutely not. Of the 11 seats on the Line, 10 are held by Republicans and there is a real case to be made in each one that the Democratic candidate can win.

As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch parties on Tuesday. (If you don't know which race that is by now, you haven't been paying attention.)

And, the Line -- even this final Line -- is meant as a conversation starter. Disagree with our Democrats +8 projection? Too low? Too high? The comments section awaits.

To the Line!

11. Louisiana (D): Republicans continue to believe that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) can be beaten, making the case that John McCain's wide lead over Barack Obama in the state is evidence that Louisiana is immune from the Democratic wave likely to sweep the rest of the country. A new poll for state Treasurer John Kennedy's campaign released Thursday showed the race a dead heat -- 45 percent for Landrieu and 44 percent for Kennedy. But, an independent poll released earlier in the week showed Landrieu ahead comfortably. Who's right? We'll know on Tuesday (Previous ranking: N/A)

10. Kentucky (R): The collapse of the American financial markets over the past seven weeks has coincided with a drastic tightening in the race between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Bruce Lunsford. (Don't believe us? Check out the lines on the pollster.com chart.) Republicans are confident McConnell has steadied himself and will win relatively comfortably. Democrats insist McConnell can be beaten but acknowledge it would be a major upset. (Previous ranking: 9)

9. Georgia (R): Already looking for what's next after Nov. 4? A Georgia Senate runoff -- on Dec. 2 -- could be in the offing with Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and former state Rep. Jim Martin (D) in a virtual dead heat and the Libertarian nominee siphoning off just enough of the vote to potentially keep either major party nominee under 50 percent. Black turnout in early voting has been stratospherically high and if it stays that way, Martin could be positioned to pull off a huge upset. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Minnesota (R): As we wrote last week, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is a political survivor. And, if you believe the latest poll out of Minnesota, which showed Coleman at 42 percent to 36 percent for comedian Al Franken (D) and 12 percent for independent Dean Barkley, then Coleman may find a way to live to fight another cycle. At issue is how much of the vote Barkley ultimately takes and who he takes it from. Both parties agree this will be among the closest -- if not the closest -- race next Tuesday. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Oregon (R): Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has done everything he can to win reelection (including running several ads featuring Barack Obama) but strategists on both sides tend to agree (privately) that he is going to come up a bit short to state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Obama is going to win the state handily and Merkley is likely to ride in on those coattails. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. New Hampshire (R): Earlier this week, national Republicans were touting a poll that showed Sen. John Sununu (R) down by just three points in his race against former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D). But, subsequent surveys suggest that Shaheen is maintaining a solid mid-single digit edge. Incumbents who are behind for two years don't win. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Alaska (R): The conviction of Sen. Ted Stevens (R) on seven felony counts in his federal corruption trial would seem to seal the longtime incumbent's fate. Sen. John McCain has called on Stevens to resign as has Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. In any other state, we would be crowning Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) as the next senator from the Last Frontier. But, it's Alaska and, well, it's different up there. Our guess is that Stevens loses but by a far narrower margin than you might expect. (Previous ranking: 8)

3. Colorado (R)/2. New Mexico (R): The lesson here: don't tangle with the Udalls when a Senate seat is on the line. Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) has been a shoo-in for months while Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) has finally pulled away from former Rep. Bob Schaeffer (R) in the final days. (Previous ranking: Colorado 3, New Mexico 2)

Chris I hope the main polls in Louisiana are wrong and senator Landrieu loses. I am from Louisiana and i have called her office lots of times You never new how she would she would vote until it was over. I have had the phone closed in my face about 4 times because they did not want to hear what i had to say and all i wonder was how she was going to vote on a big issue. also i had one person to say that he did not have time to talk to me for 15 minutes he was to busy. I told one person that i was in Vietnam and in so many words she could do a lot better job. He said that the Vietnam war was a lone time ago and he said forget about the war. I think that the senator feels like her staff does but not for sure. I did report it in a E mail about this and said i would not vote for her again if her and staff feels like this any war after about 3 weeks i was treated real good but i was close for the senator to start campaigning for Reelection. I have had no problem with my other senator or Rep. And i call about the same things. I do talk in a stern voice but i do not talk inappropriate. TO the person that was a helicopter crewman that won a lot of metals that said that McCain was a peace of Filth and a phoney and not a hero and would do anything to get elected. I have to disagree with him i would like to see how he would act as a Pow for 3 years and see how brave he would be. since i was in Vietnam i put my life on the line just like he did. the solders of the South Vietimese were very Brutal against there own people but nothing like the North Vietimese so i can see how Senator McCain was treated very Brutal. I do not know how i could take the treatment but i would have done my best to be like McCain. Anyone that says McCain was not a Hero They are living in a Dream.

Even if the Democrats pick up 8 and end up one short of 60, there is still a back door to get them over the top. Assuming Obama wins, what if he taps Sens. Susan Collins and/or Olympia Snowe of Maine for Cabinet positions? Maine's governor, Democrat John Baldacci, would then appoint a replacement (though I'm not sure whether laws dictate which party this pick could belong to). Who else would fit this mold? Chris, run with this idea!

nwsjnky1,
So, you demand Democrat party no longer be referred to as the Democrat party while casually referring to the others as "Rethugs". I realize you're far too narcissistic to see the hypocrisy of that, so I'll try to put this in terms even you can understand: At long last sir, have you no sense of irony? I'm ready for my shallow accusation of bigotry now, Ms. AsperGirl.

bobby w-c, that is worse than I imagined - and worse than I found it to be 35 years ago when I had dealings in the fed cts. in Laredo and Brownsville and had lawyer friends on the border. It was not good, then.

bobby w-c, that is worse than I imagined - and worse than I found it to be 35 years ago when I had dealings in the fed cts. in Laredo and Brownsville and had lawyer friends on the border. It was not good, then.

bobby w-c, that is worse than I imagined - and worse than I found it to be 35 years ago when I had dealings in the fed cts. in Laredo and Brownsville and had lawyer friends on the border. It was not good, then.

"You're entirely incorrect. 30% of ambassadorial appointments go to political contributors and supporters.

You really don't need an experienced Foreign Service Officer in Monaco or Suriname or any of a dozen other places (and in most cases, the ambassador role is ceremonial; the actual work is done by the embassy's #2).

Just look at Sam Fox, Bush's recess appointment as ambassador to Belgium. His chief qualification was that he donated $50,000 to the "Swiftboat Veterans for Truth" in 2004.

Not that we want to emulate Bush..."

There's a difference between rewarding supporters and explicitly promising someone a job in exchange for them dropping out of an election. That's bribery.

We have no reason to vote, which is why our turnout is low. Everyone knows the Democratic Parties in the various counties of South Texas celebrate their corruption as a birth right.

We have just given-up - Obama can put Texas back in Democratic territory if he would just appoint a US Attorney for Southern Texas who will clean out the Democratic Party of South Texas. The day this happens Texas again will be a state controlled by the Democrats. If not we in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, LRGV will stay home and Texas will remain Republican.

Two examples which can be verified through the Brownsville Herald on line.

A man on the most wanted list by the FBI for murder is there because our DA allowed him to walk out of court without a bond to get his personal affairs in order. His name is Livingston. The bond money was released to the DA's former law partner (Eddie Lucio) as compensation to the victim's children. 5 minutes work earned him $200,000.00 - The judge who granted the motion to allow the convicted murder to walk without objection from the DA was Judge Limas.

Several weeks ago the same DA and same Judge Limas allowed the son of the District Clerk to walk out of court after admitting to stealing $83,000.00 from a nursing home.

The DA blocked the Herald from obtaining the full police report on the criminal complaint, until after the man was put before Judge Limas without any notice to the people, the victims, the press, and allowed to plead no contest with an agreement Judge Limas would slap him on the hand and give him 5 years probation with dismissal of all charges at any time Judge Limas decides to release him from probation. (There was not so much as notice the man was being investigated, or that he was ever indicted. He waived indictment.)

Oh, who chooses the judges in felony cases, the mother of the man who stole the $83,000.00 from the nursing home.

This is why the LRGV will not vote - this corrutpion is endless - it will never end because the Democrats of the LRGV are big time contributors to the DNC. The DNC sees the Latino community of the LRGV as a source of money. We have no rights. We are mere slaves to the Democratic Party Plantation Mentality towards Latinos.

The US Attorney who now resigned effective the 8th of November refuses to even investigate because the corruption goes to Bush cronies.

Mark in Austin and to anyone else who is reading this, would you vote if this is how politics were in your part of the country?

I stick by my opinion that the Democrats need 75 seats in the senate to have a filibuster proof majority. First of all, while Lieberman loves the attention, can you really count on him? Second, a lot of these Democratic senators come from red states and won't be backing any old bill just because Harry Reid is behind it. Heck, sometimes these senators need to vote against a Democratic bill they believe in on simple point of principle if they want to win reelection. And then their is Feingold. While a definite liberal, his good government principles will trump his party affiliation on some bills. 60 isn't the legislative lottery number so many Democrats seem to think it is.

The one thing a 60 seat (or even a 58 or 59 seat) Democratic senate can do, is get Presidential nominations to the floor of the senate for a vote. It will allow Obama to have his judges confirmed.

We have no reason to vote, which is why our turnout is low. Everyone knows the Democratic Parties in the various counties of South Texas celebrate their corruption as a birth right.

We have just given-up - Obama can put Texas back in Democratic territory if he would just appoint a US Attorney for Southern Texas who will clean out the Democratic Party of South Texas. The day this happens Texas again will be a state controlled by the Democrats. If not we in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, LRGV will stay home and Texas will remain Republican.

Two examples which can be verified through the Brownsville Herald on line.

A man on the most wanted list by the FBI for murder is there because our DA allowed him to walk out of court without a bond to get his personal affairs in order. His name is Livingston. The bond money was released to the DA's former law partner (Eddie Lucio) as compensation to the victim's children. 5 minutes work earned him $200,000.00 - The judge who granted the motion to allow the convicted murder to walk without objection from the DA was Judge Limas.

Several weeks ago the same DA and same Judge Limas allowed the son of the District Clerk to walk out of court after admitting to stealing $83,000.00 from a nursing home.

The DA blocked the Herald from obtaining the full police report on the criminal complaint, until after the man was put before Judge Limas without any notice to the people, the victims, the press, and allowed to plead no contest with an agreement Judge Limas would slap him on the hand and give him 5 years probation with dismissal of all charges at any time Judge Limas decides to release him from probation. (There was not so much as notice the man was being investigated, or that he was ever indicted. He waived indictment.)

Oh, who chooses the judges in felony cases, the mother of the man who stole the $83,000.00 from the nursing home.

This is why the LRGV will not vote - this corrutpion is endless - it will never end because the Democrats of the LRGV are big time contributors to the DNC. The DNC sees the Latino community of the LRGV as a source of money. We have no rights. We are mere slaves to the Democratic Party Plantation Mentality towards Latinos.

The US Attorney who now resigned effective the 8th of November refuses to even investigate because the corruption goes to Bush cronies.

Mark in Austin and to anyone else who is reading this, would you vote if this is how politics were in your part of the country?

"I'm curious as to why George Allen did not run for John Warner's seat (I assume there's no legal reason)."

That "macaca" jeering remark of his that was captured on video was simply unacceptable. That man should not have a place in public office.

The Virginia old-boy's network is like that. It would be good for cleaning out a lot of ugly old insiders out of Richmond if the state turns blue. That is one state that doesn't need to stay Republican. VA, for example, vied with Texas for horrifically aggressive capital punishment cases and getting womens' rights landmark cases overturned.

George Mason University is a haven for child molesters and bigots who push out cynical, corrupt conservative work as valid academic studies. Their sexual harassment/affirmative action guy (Ron Sinacore) for 20 years was busted a few years ago for being an active pedophile who taped and then blackmailed his teenaged young rape victims. Right up until the time he was busted and sent to Lorton prison, the GMU President, Alan Merten, and the GMU Administration and senate, was happy with all the corrupt, perverted things this man did while running the equal opportunity and sexual harassment cases at GMU.

GMU, as Virginia conservatives' attempt to make a major public university a conservative one, has been putting out junk academic work undermining liberal stances and supporting conservative law and ideology, at public expense.

That George Allen "macaca" guy is a perfect example of the kind bigoted trash that is supported at public expense via the Richmond-based old boy network in Virginia.

Regardless of what happens with the presidential race, I hope VA turns blue and some of the old-boy-network trash in Richmond gets pushed out. And I hope a bluer VA cuts the funding for a lot of junk academics and corrupt, bigoted abuses that is funded at public expense at GMU, Richmond's flagship "conservative" public university.

If things continue to go as they appear to be going, the Democrats will come out ahead in almost every race. Personally, there are a few things on the Democratic agenda I take acception to; namely their desire to outlaw the private ownership of firearms.

The need to disarm the common citizen and make us subjects instead, is a rabid desire I have never understood. The wording in the 2nd Amendment really is quite clear, and there is enough historic precedent surrounding that wording to survive most any attack. That is, if the defenders do their job and not sell out their responsibilities.

As for the Repuglicans, this is the beating they brought on themselves. Lining up lock step with a cabal like that of Cheney and Bush. Yes, I put Cheney first. He has been the real driving force behind this nations misdeeds, Bush was just his puppet.

All of the Repug's could see what they were doing to this country and they didn't feel any remorse. The havoc in the financial sector and the ridiculous payday they just gave themselves in that bailout are prime examples of how they view this nation. We are nothing but a buffet table for the stupid rich. The time has come for them to be held accountable for their crimes.

Those who retain their childish faith in the rule of law will receive an education in how the world really works when Stevens gets re-elected, beats the rap and returns laughing to the Senate. You don't manipulate and corrupt a system for as long as he has without having the ability to make it dance to your tune when the chips are down.

mark_in_austin - Yes, Gordon Smith is actually a Reagan conservative, albeit a moderate one, and is a pretty decent and honest fellow. Unfortunately, he IS honest and has been defending free trade and H1-B visas here. In Oregon, with those stances, you might as well be drinking antifreeze. The nut cases fro Freedom Watch, which have been advertising on Smith's behalf, have managed to tie him to them and that has put the final nail in his coffin.

I'm a Republican, but I'm voting for Obama. I'm not particularly concerned whether the Democrats win a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate...it might be better if they didn't, but I don't think its critical either way.

Seems to me the Democrats should be able to run their program well enough with control of the White House and House of Representatives, and a comfortable majority in the Senate, even without an absolute lock on every detail. Sure, a Republican minority in the Senate can sustain a fillibuster if they are sufficiently committed to a particular issue to do that, but not all the time, or even most of the time, without facing punishment by the voters...and they have to be absolutely united, or persuade some Democrats to their side, even then.

I AM still concerned that another election could be stolen... some will dismiss that as a real hazard, but there WERE blatant shennanigans in the 2K and '04 elections.

I cheerfully admit that, granted, I'm terribly biased and have been predicting both a landslide Obama win for many months AND that he will have LONG coattails, but I truly believe that the Democrats will come near to sweeping the boards in the 11 races you identify AND will also win in Mississippi. Ironically, of the 11 races you cite, I feel the one most likely to stay Republican is Stevens. I've lived in Alaska...Alaska IS different!

That's NOT necessarily a bad thing...except in choice of governors, of course!

Sununu and Gordon Smith are both good men...and both are gone. Susan Collins appears safe...that's good, she's a Republican senator with integrity and heart. Maybe we could pull off a New England Downeaster/Nutmeg swap...Collins for Lieberman. This would temper the Democrats with all that is good about ideological conservatism...and would restore some balance, socially, with the addition of Lieberman to the weird mix that passes for conservatism today on the GOP side of the aisle!

But I'm not certain that the anger ...and despair...engendered by the last eight years plus the collapse of the economy can be accurately quantified. All I know is that in my hitherto reliably red state (Montana) it is there and is a MAJOR factor! Montana WILL go Democratic, which means nothing in the Senate race other than as a measure of just how deep the resentments go against this president and his Party! Add to this a massive turnout, nationally, especially among first time voters...the young and African Americans...and really McCain and the Republicans' only hope will be a snowstorm of Biblical proportions!

I cheerfully admit that, granted, I'm terribly biased and have been predicting both a landslide Obama win for many months AND that he will have LONG coattails, but I truly believe that the Democrats will come near to sweeping the boards in the 11 races you identify AND will also win in Mississippi. Ironically, of the 11 races you cite, I feel the one most likely to stay Republican is Stevens. I've lived in Alaska...Alaska IS different!

That's NOT necessarily a bad thing...except in choice of governors, of course!

Sununu and Gordon Smith are both good men...and both are gone. Susan Collins appears safe...that's good, she's a Republican senator with integrity and heart. Maybe we could pull off a New England Downeaster/Nutmeg swap...Collins for Lieberman. This would temper the Democrats with all that is good about ideological conservatism...and would restore some balance, socially, with the addition of Lieberman to the weird mix that passes for conservatism today on the GOP side of the aisle!

But I'm not certain that the anger ...and despair...engendered by the last eight years plus the collapse of the economy can be accurately quantified. All I know is that in my hitherto reliably red state (Montana) it is there and is a MAJOR factor! Montana WILL go Democratic, which means nothing in the Senate race other than as a measure of just how deep the resentments go against this president and his Party! Add to this a massive turnout, nationally, especially among first time voters...the young and African Americans...and really McCain and the Republicans' only hope will be a snowstorm of Biblical proportions!

Kay Hagan will beat Elizabeth Dole in NC. Hagan's portrayal of Dole as unresponsive and tied to Bush has been highly effective while Dole's attack on Hagan's religiosity screams of panic and hysteria. Hagan ran a very effective add with 2 old-timers sitting on a porch discussing 'Liddy' Dole. Obama has also done a good job motivating black voters in NC (not that I am a big Obama supporter, I would have preferred to be voting for HRC on Tuesday). You will get Democratic voters at the polls on Tuesday who don't typically show up.

I'm curious as to why George Allen did not run for John Warner's seat (I assume there's no legal reason). He lost to Webb in a true squeaker in 2006. I'm not sure he would have been able to beat Warner, but at least this race might have been competitive on some level. It just seems like the Virginia GOP conceded this seat.

Should be interesting on Tuesday night regardless of anything.

-------------------

The Macaca incident left a deep wound and permanent scar. Even given the American voters' short-term memory, that particular incident was etched into the Virginia consciousness.

Demographic of the state is changing, esp in Northern VA...you know, the area that John McCain's brother calls communist...where he called 911 to complain about a traffic jam and cursed the operator.

The state is now beginning to represent Thomas Jefferson more and more and Pat Robertson less and less.

I don't understand why Mississippi isn't on this list either. A couple of polls surfaced this week with Wicker finally over 50 percent. But, aside from that the dynamincs of the race haven't changed from day one: Obama will greatly increase African-American turnout, there is no party id on the ballot, and Ronnie Musgrove is the right kind of Democrat to win this seat. All he needs is approximately a quarter of the white vote assuming an increase in votes for Sen. Obama over Sen. Kerry and a higher percentage of the African-American vote.
I place this race on par with that of Kentucky. It may be less than 50-50 right now, but on election day one or both of these will go our way.

I'm curious as to why George Allen did not run for John Warner's seat (I assume there's no legal reason). He lost to Webb in a true squeaker in 2006. I'm not sure he would have been able to beat Warner, but at least this race might have been competitive on some level. It just seems like the Virginia GOP conceded this seat.

Should be interesting on Tuesday night regardless of anything.

-------------------

The Macaca incident left a deep wound and permanent scar. Even given the American voters' short-term memory, that particular incident was etched into the Virginia consciousness.

Demographic of the state is changing, esp in Northern VA...you know, the area that John McCain's brother calls communist...where he called 911 to complain about a traffic jam and cursed the operator.

The state is now beginning to represent Thomas Jefferson more and more and Pat Robertson less and less.

This really reveals a problem with our political system: criminals get to serve in the highest post of govenment, but if you Joe the Plumber with a criminal record you can't get a job in the post office.

Our Legislative branch as well as the executive cabinet are filled with pedophiles and felons of all types.

MikeB, From here Gordon Smith looks like one of the good guys. Is he? And what does Merkley have to offer?

On the other hand, from here, Chambliss looks like one of the bad guys. Anybody in GA want to comment on that race, in terms of quality of the senator as opposed to his party, which we all know?

My sis in NC thinks Dole has been a low quality Senator - not very responsive to her constituents' needs.

Bobby, this is also true of Cornyn - unlike KBH, Cornyn is very non-responsive to constituents. Bobby, why is all of TX turning out in droves except for the border? I know that is always the case, but is it the poverty that creates the ennui?

You're entirely incorrect. 30% of ambassadorial appointments go to political contributors and supporters.

You really don't need an experienced Foreign Service Officer in Monaco or Suriname or any of a dozen other places (and in most cases, the ambassador role is ceremonial; the actual work is done by the embassy's #2).

Just look at Sam Fox, Bush's recess appointment as ambassador to Belgium. His chief qualification was that he donated $50,000 to the "Swiftboat Veterans for Truth" in 2004.

If Democrats pick up the first 8 seats on your line, which you seem to think they will, imagine how much money and effort is going to be put towards that Chambliss/Martin race if there's a runoff - on both sides. That might become the most important single congressional race in a long, long time.

I'm curious as to why George Allen did not run for John Warner's seat (I assume there's no legal reason). He lost to Webb in a true squeaker in 2006. I'm not sure he would have been able to beat Warner, but at least this race might have been competitive on some level. It just seems like the Virginia GOP conceded this seat.

If Democrats pick up the first 8 seats on your line, which you seem to think they will, imagine how much money and effort is going to be put towards that Chambliss/Martin race if there's a runoff - on both sides. That might become the most important single congressional race in a long, long time.

The Minnesota race in intriguing. Some polls had Franken ahead as recently as a few weeks ago. That was about when Coleman pulled all of his negative ads, a move that appears to have worked.

Bill Clinton was here in Minneapolis yesterday to rally support for Franken and Obama. Hillary Clinton and Amy Klobuchar have commercials supporting Franken as well. The DNC is sending out sample ballot postcards that try to coax Franken onto the coattails of an Obama victory. In the 5th CD, they're even hoping Franken latches onto incumbent Rep. Keith Ellison, whose coattails are even wider than Obama's.

In the end, it looks like the attack ads from outside Coleman's campaign will have the final say. Coleman's dicision to drop the negative ads (while letting his surrogates go after Franken) was much more successful than McCain's move to suspend his campaign. The Senator from Arizona could learn a few things from Coleman, it seems.

I'm certain the Dems can pick up seven. They have a good chance of eight if Franken can pull it out. Nine, I'm not sure. I think lightning would have to strike for that to happen and I think they might have used their lightning quota two years ago when Webb got elected to the Virginia seat to get 51 for the Dems.

Since there was no mention of it, I presume your prediction on Norm Coleman surviving was made before the the story broke today about the $75,000 under the table payoff to Coleman's wife by a GOP donor?

AsperGirl - In another "last straw" in a long line of last straws, Cooper Firearms, who used to be makers of pretty decent target rifles, fired their head gunsmith, Dan Cooper, the son of the founder of that company, for endorsing (as a private citizen) Barak Obama. It seems that the NRA, that phony supporter of the Second Amendment, doesn't believe in the first Amendment.

Where is MS (Wicker/Musgrove)? It's at least as much of a race as GA or KY. I'd move LA ahead of all three of those races.

I would bet MN (and everything below it) won't flip and there's a surprise (R) hold in OR or NC. Probably NC, which is too bad because Dole is acting despicably and Smith seems like a smart, competent moderate.

D+7 seems most likely, and certainly no less than D+4. Who could have predicted that?

Oh, RNC. Are you reading this? Please, please, please continue to spend your dwindling war chest on the Louisiana race. I KNOW you can win this from Landrieu! Cmon, you don't need to defend Chambliss and Wicker. They have it wrapped up!

Where is MS (Wicker/Musgrove)? It's at least as much of a race as GA or KY. I'd move LA ahead of all three of those races.

I would bet MN (and everything below it) won't flip and there's a surprise (R) hold in OR or NC. Probably NC, which is too bad because Dole is acting despicably and Smith seems like a smart, competent moderate.

D+7 seems most likely, and certainly no less than D+4. Who could have predicted that?

Good line, CC. I do not see Dems hitting the 60 margin. However, their gains are going to be very real. Democrats are guaranteed 3 new seats: Virginia, New Mexico & Colorodo. That changes the math 52-46-2 (vote D). Then let's say Democrats win New Hampshire and Oregon: 54-44-2. I personally believe Ted Stevens will actually keep his Alaska based seat. He has done so much for Northern Alaska and polls in that area are rarely measured correctly. Had it not been for the really small areas, Lt. Gov. Parnell would be the R nominee for the House seat. I believe Stevens will still pull this election out. I knew Kay Hagan was a formidable contender here in my home state of NC. I believe Dole will likely pull out the win here, too. Dirty or not, dirty campaigns work. I also believe Norm Coleman & Mith McConnell will pull their victories out, but Minn. will be so close...much closer than will Kentucky. John Kennedy in La. will try to ride McCain's coattails, but I don't see it working. Landrieu has been just conservative enough to beat a flip flopper like Kennedy at the end of the day. 0 pick-ups for R's.

1 thing worth noting: who would have ever thought at the beginning of 06 that Liddy Dole of NC & Saxby Chambliss of Ga. would be on "The Line" and Susan Collins of Maine would not? Wow, anything can happen in politics!

Looking at this campaign and in campaigns past, it really has been the Presidential candidate that fires up the base the best that wins. In 1992 & 96 it was Bill Clinton, especially with Perot getting tons of Bush & Dole votes. In 2000 & 2004, George Bush really fired up the conservatives and he won. In 2008, Obama did a great job of firing up the Dem. base and that's why he's very likely to win this election. McCain has never and still doesn't get conservatives excited. I'm a Conservative who supported Romney in the primary, and McCain has never excited me. Obama is very likely to be the next President of the USA.

Except in Texas & Florida, House democrats are also going to have field day in cleaning up retiring Republican seats.

For months I have been writing on this blog in support of Barak Obama. I have tried to push back on the lies and offer some arguments of why Mr. Obama is the right man and John Mccain is not. I don't really have any words left but I want to leave you with this.

John Mccain is "Not" the man some of you may think he is. John Mccain is damaged goods. Perhaps due to an inherent personality flaw, or from his war experience John Mccain lacks any empathy for another human being. It have been shown many times in how he has treated his wives and others. He cares about no one but himself. He will lie cheat, steal and exploit anyone for his own selfish needs what ever they are at the time. He is not trustworthy nor an honorable man in any way. I don't really know what else to say. The last straw for me was when he added to his spiel a story about sitting on a flight deck of a carrier with a mission and a target during the Cuba missile crises. More lies by this self aggrandizing phony hero.

This is my closing argument I guess. Please do your own research if need be, it is not too late and protect our country from who would be a very sick and dangerous leader.

As a helicopter crewman my job was to retrieve wounded soldiers from the battle field often under fire. I met and knew so many "REAL" heros, I have a very hard time watching and listening to John Mccain as he spews his lies and venom. John Mccain is a piece of filth and I lack the vocabulary to even put into words what a phony he really is.
On November 4 you have a choice.

For months I have been writing on this blog in support of Barak Obama. I have tried to push back on the lies and offer some arguments of why Mr. Obama is the right man and John Mccain is not. I don't really have any words left but I want to leave you with this.

John Mccain is "Not" the man some of you may think he is. John Mccain is damaged goods. Perhaps due to an inherent personality flaw, or from his war experience John Mccain lacks any empathy for another human being. It have been shown many times in how he has treated his wives and others. He cares about no one but himself. He will lie cheat, steal and exploit anyone for his own selfish needs what ever they are at the time. He is not trustworthy nor an honorable man in any way. I don't really know what else to say.

The last straw for me was when he added to his spiel a story about sitting on a flight deck of a carrier with a mission and a target during the Cuba missile crises. More lies by this self aggrandizing phony hero.

This is my closing argument I guess. Please do your own research if need be, it is not too late and protect our country from who would be a very sick and dangerous leader.

As a helicopter crewman my job was to retrieve wounded soldiers from the battle field often under fire. I met and knew so many "REAL" heros, I have a very hard time watching and listening to John Mccain as he spews his lies and venom. John Mccain is a piece of filth and I lack the vocabulary to even put into words what a phony he really is. On November 4 you have a choice.

I'm so excited! There is so much to do I haven't gotten around to since Hillary Clinton's candidacy got me hooked on election politics in early Spring:

(1) All those iTunesU lectures and classes I've downloaded that are sitting on my iPhone and computer, from cognitive neuroscience classes to talks on Heidigger. No more getting bored on those 3-hour trail runs or when getting stuck in traffic!

(2) All those classes and events in the DC area that I've skipped, from museum openings to dance workshops!

(3) Cleaning my bathroom!

(4) Maybe get a seasonal job so that I have some extra spending money to blow on those family-heirloom precious jewelry pieces that desperate house-flippers who gambled on $600K townhouses in Manassas are now selling for peanuts on Ebay!

Two issues - Texas (Senate Race)- and what the Senate Candidates are not talking about.

Since the price of gas came down from 3.99 to 1.85 (Brownsville, Texas) I am saving about $125.00 per month. Over 12 months this is a lot more than another $300 rebate. Why are the candidates not talking about regulating the oil speculators? In big cities the savings has to be around 400-500 dollars a month. This means a lot more consumer spending.

TEXAS: Texas has a huge Latino and black community. By all rights we should be a Democratic State. The numbers look bad for Tuesday. How is this possible?

Texas does not have a Democratic Party - in South Texas corruption and election fraud remain the middle name of the Democrats. In Austin they are just moderate Republicans.

True Democrats have no reason to turn out and vote. How is it that a Latino for the US Senate in Texas will earn probably less than 40% of the vote? Because he is a DINOLINO and the true Democrats know it. Democrat and Latino in Name only.

There is a story in Texas which needs to be told - it will never be told because the corrupt Democrats of South Texas donate far too much money to the DNC -

Will Obama appoint a US Attorney to clean up South Texas and restore the Democratic Party of Texas? We shall see - one can only hope.

Good analysis, but play it out a bit more and you have to think that the 3rd party support in Minn will flow to Franken and that Georgia is going to a runoff, where Obama will energize the black turnout again.

McConnell keeps his seat, but whereas the polls (538) would say dems have a 30% chance of getting to 60 seats, those polls still aren't factoring in oversized youth and black voters, who likely will vote straight dem tickets.

50/50 chance at 60 senate seats. Either way, a strong working majority that can pull in a moderate republican to get through the key legislation- without having to horse trade and go whole hog with pork barrel bargaining. Hello health care and education; hello peace and prosperity. Sorry greedy warmongerers, your time is up!

Reason #22 for switching my vote to Obama: the Republicans, bigots to the end, are now trying to blame Sarah Palin for McCain's polls numbers tumbling (which tumbling started with the Wall Street meltdown started last month).

Are they going to blame her for these local contest failures too?

It's obvious what is happening: the referendum on the Bush years is coming in and the voters have decided it's time to allow the Democrats to have a chance to lead and show us if they have any substance under their pie-in-the-sky promises. This is my feeling as well, and there is no other explanation for the broad sweep of swing voters moving to Democrats this election year. The mandate switch started with the 2006 election that swept the Democrats into a slim majority in Congress, but the Republicans (the same bigots and closed-minded self-obsessed dogmatists who are now blaming Palin for McCain's struggles) deemed that the 2006 election meant that they hadn't been conservative ENOUGH.

Polls are volatile, and it is far more useful to look at the reasons for their movements. IMO, the electorate has decided that the Democrats get their chance to lead. The electorate tends to be wiser in such things than the pundits.

There are several socioeconomic strains working their magic in this novel election year: from the rise of Internet information dissemination meaning that people can now "fact check" the journalists themselves to the explicit role of identity politics. It's a mistake to focus on the polls instead of these other forces moving the electorate. It's also a mistake to separate a view of the Congressional races from a view of the Presidential race.

Sarah Palin, who is a smart, charismatic, ethical and strong leader, is not responsible for John McCain's collapsed poll numbers post-Wall-Street-meltdown. A look at these Congressional races should make that clear to the Republican bigots who are turning on her.

CNN finally did some solid reporting yesterday about how easily electronic voting machines can be hacked, programmed to siphon off a percentage of the vote to a chosen candidate at the expense of another.

"Observers" can't detect an inside job, even if they wanted to try.

This could be another Year 2000- style debacle, but this one with "hanging chips" and hacked code instead of hanging chads.

Congress knew these machines posed a problem, given the lack of a voter-verified paper trail. The "Help America Vote Act" set the nation on this course. Some help, indeed. Or was there some premeditation here?

Consider this recent story from "eweek," a technical trade publication:

jdunph1 writes
"Minnesota's Senate race will be the most interesting to watch. Long coattails will probably help Al Franken get in. Larry Sabato predicted Norm Coleman to win."

I tend to agree with the coattails theory. I expected Barkley, the independent, to run a more effective campaign. He's finally released a TV ad, which is a yawner, that won't break through the cacophony of ads for McCain, Coleman, Franken, Bachmann, Tinklenberg, Madia, Peterson and now Kline and Sarvi.

Virginia and Colorado are old news when it comes to swinging for Democrats. I'd have NC at #1 right now, because Liddy just crapped the cot with that ad. #2 would be NH. #3 would be AK (the citizens of DC finally have a say in a full-fledged voting senator). The rest work.

Bush's bailout: they gave Wall Street banks nearly $200 BILLION and those banks used it for bonuses for their executives, spent half it for dividends for executives and blew most of the rest on foreign investments; Bush is busy gutting ever sort of regulation protecting consumers, protecting the environment and governing corporate activities. This is the legacy of Bush and this is what Dole has stood for in her whole career. She may win, but she is so awful, so disgusting, so criminal, that the voters will come to regret it. Dole and every NeoCon is the worst danger this country has ever faced. She and Bush and every other free traitor is a worse enemy than Osama Bin Ladin and every other terrorist in the world today. Her "victory", predicted by some of the genuine enemies of this country posting here, amounts to cheering on the destruction of the United States. So much for Republican "patriotism".

I'm kind of surpirsed Chris actually picked us to win eight races, as most of the year he's been conservative in his estimates and had Louisiana as high as fourth much of the year.
Tuesday people are going to see what I wrote months ago: "Mary Landrieu is about to cement herself as the senior senator from Louisiana for as long as her heart desires." This race should have never been on the list, especially not in the top five as it was most of the year.
Minnesota's Senate race will be the most interesting to watch. Long coattails will probably help Al Franken get in. Larry Sabato predicted Norm Coleman to win.
Chambliss' seat should be interesting too, especially if it goes to a runoff. McConnell is still under 50 percent. I think that like in '04 with our minority leader this may end up being the closest Senate race of the night. And I still think we can win it.

I beg to differ. Hagan's already on the air with a response ad that very effectively calls out Dole for "bearing false witness against a fellow Christian." Bob & Liddy will have plenty of time to enjoy retirement together.

Based on recent polling, I would say that Jeff Merkley in Oregon should be ranked higher than Kay Hagan in North Carolina; he's led by high single digits in all recent polling, and is in an ocean-blue state.

Can't believe the end is in sight... Withdrawal symptoms are setting in!

I generally agree with your list. I think the Dems take VA, CO, NM, NC, OR, AK, and NH comfortably and then one or two of the others. Not sure if Franken can pull it out as the polls on this race are mixed.

I also think too much is being made of the filibuster-proof majority. There's a number of conservative Dem senators that won't necessarily vote lock-step. (And some moderate Republicans that will vote with the Dems to close off debate.) We'll have to wait and see how large the Dem vote is on Tuesday before we know how much authority Obama and the Dem congress will hold.