Surfing the net and came across this little trade scenario (via Dugout Central). It's not happening (Jeff Moore, the article writer, admits it'll never happen....but should)....but is very interesting to consider:

The Indians get:

Roy Halladay The Blue Jays get:

Nick Weglarz Adam Miller Beau Mills Scott Lewis

The real question should be: do they have a choice?

Roy Halladay will be a free agent after the 2010 season, and given the financial factors at work for the Blue Jays, it seems unlikely they will be able to resign him, unless he gives them a serious hometown discount. Given the current state of the AL East, a better option for the Blue Jays would be to effectively restock their farm system by trading with two years remaining rather than one.

Look at the difference in what the Braves gave up to get Mark Teixeira with a year and a half left compared to what the Angels gave up to get the same player a year later. Thanks to Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, the Rangers now have one of the top farm systems in all of baseball and Jarrod Saltalamacchia is somebody’s catcher of the future, if it’s not Texas’. The Blue Jays can get a similar package for two years of Roy Halladay.

The Cleveland Indians, on the other hand, play in the aforementioned AL Central, a division devoid of perennial big spenders. It is a division where one major acquisition like Roy Halladay can swing the balance of power. The Indians have shown a willingness to open their checkbook when the time is right (back in 2001 their payroll was over $93 million – last season it was around $79 million) and might be willing to do so again for a true ace.

The Indians badly underachieved in 2008. The talented Tribe simply couldn’t put it together until August, then proceeded to play the way they were capable of, going 34-21 down the stretch. It was too little, too late, but it showed the rest of the American League what they were capable of for 2009.

Add to the equation Kerry Wood in the closer’s role, Mark DeRosa somewhere in the infield, and a healthy Fausto Carmona likely performing closer to his 2007 version than what we saw last year, and the 2009 Indians are ready to compete in what should be a wide open division.

But they need something to put them over the top.

They do still have some serious question marks. Will Carmona bounce back, and if so, how far? Can Cliff Lee even come close to his Cy Young season again? Will they get 30 starts out of Jake Westbrook?

Halladay would be the answer.

Unfortunately they would have to seriously deplete their farm system in order to get him, but there might be some silver lining. The Indians’ top two prospects are C Carlos Santana and LF/DH Matt LaPorta. Typically, if the Blue Jays were asking around about a player like Halladay they would want the top prospects of any potential suitors. But the Blue Jays have a few top prospects of their own, in Travis Snider and J.P. Arencibia. They’re positions? LF/DH and C.

It is seemingly possible the Blue Jays would take this opportunity to load up for their future at other positions while at the same time, the Indians would be willing to unload the majority of their top prospects if it meant grabbing Halladay without giving up Santana and LaPorta.

In return for Halladay, the Indians would have to part with a number of highly talented players. Nick Weglarz is another LF, but one who should actually stay at the position, unlike LaPorta and Snider, both of whom are likely destined to be DHs. His line as a 20-year-old in High-A last year was .272/.396/.432. Weglarz has potential plus power and a great eye at the plate. He should start 2009 in Double-A, so he’s not far away.

Another player the Blue Jays would certainly want is Adam Miller, the power-armed righty who is the Indians top pitching prospect and has been their top overall prospect for the past few years. In 490 innings across six minor league seasons, the 24-year-old has a 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, striking out 475. While Miller’s chances of being a potential ace are less certain than they once were, his arm is still just as powerful as ever when healthy, and it looks like he has the potential to at least become a big league closer.

Beau Mills was the Indians top pick in 2007. The 22-year-old is simply a hitter (.293/.373/.506 in High-A in 2008), but in the Indians case, his only potential defensive position is 1B, where they have a logjam of prospects, or DH, which likely will be LaPorta’s future home. Either way, the Indians have additional options at 1B. The Blue Jays do have 2008 1st round draft pick David Cooper at 1B, but it is doubtful they would turn down the chance to get Mills’ bat.

Trying to find spots in the lineup for Snider, Mills, Cooper, Weglarz and current LF Adam Lind would be a problem J.P. Ricciardi would love to have. Considering the Blue Jays’ recent penchant for developing pitchers but having struggling offenses, this type of roster assembly would provide a nice change for the fans in Toronto.

Additionally, though, SP Scott Lewis would have to be included to get this trade done. This 25-year-old lefty overachieved in four late season starts in 2008 (four wins, 2.63 ERA, 1.083 WHIP) but could be an effective member of the Jays rotation. If nothing else Lewis can take the departed Halladay’s starts right away.

These players might not be the exact participants should a trade occur, but this example illustrates the approach the Blue Jays should take with Roy Halladay. Perhaps Ricciardi would want more arms in return, and ask Cleveland for prospects like Kelvin de la Cruz or David Huff. Perhaps he would hold out for LaPorta or Santana. Maybe another team could offer more than the Indians.

But likely it won’t happen at all. I understand why Ricciardi won’t make a move like this. How, as the public representative of the direction of his franchise, can he essentially make the public statement that “even though we’re pretty good, we just can’t compete in this division so we’re going to start over.”

He can’t do it. Or maybe he just won’t.

This is the kind of move GM’s won’t make. Ricciardi knows the clock is ticking on being able to throw Halladay out on the mound every fifth day, and he knows he needs to get something for him when he leaves. He also knows that with every passing day, Halladay’s return value goes down.

He also knows that the Blue Jays won’t compete anytime between now and when that clock expires.

But he isn’t likely to make a move. General Managers don’t make moves like this too often. Billy Beane did (when he traded Dan Haren with two years left on his contract) and the return he got was substantial. The A’s also went 75-86 without him. Was it an easy decision? No. Was it the right decision? We don’t know yet, but they probably wouldn’t have won the AL West if they still had Haren, so it looks good so far. The only reason Haren would return more than Halladay is his age (four years younger) and willingness to sign an extension (which he did).

So here is Ricciardi’s chance to be realistic, make a bold move, and reload his team for a time when they actually have a chance. How will he handle it? How would you?

ha, obviously isn't happening, but like I said......found it kinda interesting.....would anyone be able to stop a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Pavano (with Sowers, Laffey, and Huff in waiting)??

I don't think that package would do it. Why would the Blue Jays for anything less than a package involving either LaPorta or Santana? Which begs another question, let's say it takes Santana, Mills, Huff and another prospect (which I think is more reasonable) -- should the Indians make that trade?

Well you're right. It isn't happening. On the Jays side, they are stuck between the free-spending Yanks, Red Sox, and the young, deep, and now playoff experienced Rays. An interesting problem. I guess I would hold onto Halliday at least 1 more year, maybe try to find somebody desperate at the deadline.

On the Indians side, keep in mind, like CC, there is no way we could afford him after 2010. Haladay would be a rent-a-player. Plus that is a ton of talent you propose in that trade. We would loose our Plan B and C closers with Miller and Lewis. (Wood is not the most dependable). In my mind you consider this if your team is poised to make a run at the whole thing. Right now, the 09 Indians have too many questions to be in that category. The biggest question being T. Hafner. If we have the 06 Hafner, you can print playoff tickets now. If we have the 08 Hafner, there is a hole in the lineup the size of North Dakota.

I don't think that package would do it. Why would the Blue Jays for anything less than a package involving either LaPorta or Santana? Which begs another question, let's say it takes Santana, Mills, Huff and another prospect (which I think is more reasonable) -- should the Indians make that trade?

Well the reasoning (according to the writer of the article, not me) that they might make a deal without LaPorta or Santana is because they already have Travis Snider (who is rated just as high or higher than LaPorta and plays the same position) and J.P. Arcenbia who is a top catching prospect. The reasoning is that they have other needs that the Tribe can fill with guys like Weglarz and Mills plus pitching.

I too think that the deal wouldn't quite get it done......I highly doubt they'd want Lewis.....Huff or Laffey would be better ML options, and then there's De La Cruz.

And of course, this trade scenario totally neglects the financial issue. Halladay makes $14.25M this year and $15.75M in 2010. Adding Halladay with only giving up prospects would put our payroll around $95M.......we'd have to include at least Dellucci as a salary dump, and likely make another move along the lines of Shoppach and Kobayashi to the Red Sox (just an example) to free up even close to enough payroll to get within reason. Even doing that we're still around $85-86M......which 'could' be doable if Dolan would allow it. Only up $6-7M from what the starting payroll was in 2008 ($79M). Would be taking a huge financial risk though.....

A more likely scenario (and by more, I mean the still a 1 in a million scenario) would be a midseason trade where we'd only add half of Halladay's salardy for 2009 and still dump some payroll like a Dellucci (along with prospects). Tex was traded with 1.5 years left....I can easily see Hallady being dealt as well (not saying to the Indians, but to someone). Similar type of prospects would likely be dealt as well.

I'd definately do a 'rent-a-player' move since it's for more than 1 year. We'd be handcuffing ourselves a bit after 2010....but that still gives us 2 years to play with. 2009 rotation would be Halladay, Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Pavano/Sowers/Huff/Laffey.....and 2010 would be Halladay, Lee, Carmona, Westbrook, Reyes.......getting goosebumps just thinking about that.

Now obviously it's a HUGE pipedream to say the least....but the deal was proposed by a 'nuetral' fan/writer......which I find interesting......

GhostofTedCox wrote:On the Indians side, keep in mind, like CC, there is no way we could afford him after 2010. Haladay would be a rent-a-player. Plus that is a ton of talent you propose in that trade. We would loose our Plan B and C closers with Miller and Lewis. (Wood is not the most dependable).

The Lewis that was mentioned was SCOTT Lewis, not Jensen Lewis.....so wouldn't be losing our backup closing option.....just an FYI (not that it really matters as the deal isn't happening, lol).

The big problem with both the Orioles and the Blue Jays is that they will NEVER make the playoffs but want to appear competitive. That is where they fall down and do stupid things. I am all a package of Santana, Mills, Huff and Scott Lewis. While I like all those prospects I think they all have warts AND I think they are at the highest trade value they may ever have. Nick Weglarz, however, has few warts, IMHO, and should be a keeper. Ditto for LaPorta even though I like him less than most and his trade value is relatively high and for Miller, whose upside FAR, FAR exceeds his trade value right now.

Can Santana catch? Can Mills hit for enough average and power to be anything more than Garko? Can Huff be any more than a #4 starter? Can Scott Lewis even pitch in the big leagues with his lack of stuff?

For two years of Halladay I will bet the answer to all those questions will turn out to be "No".

eh, I wouldn't say 'never' make the playoffs......Rays did it....though took them being in last place for nearly a decade straight and lots of high drafts picks to do it.....but trading for a lot of young talent would be one way the Blue Jays and/or Orioles could build a winning team. Will be very hard for either team to make the playoffs, I totally agree with you there.

I too would be willing to part with Santana in a trade for Halladay (though for different reasons than you). We have enough catching depth to get by without him. I'd even part with Santana, Weglarz, Mills, and Huff or Miller or De La Cruz. We have enough depth to afford to lose those guys....now will we become pretty thin? yeah, but westill have LaPorta, Brantley and Crowe in the minors, plus Choo at the ML level for the OF. Still have Giminez and Toregas at catcher with Martinez and Shoppach at the ML level. Have a bunch of backend starters. De La Cruz would hurt some.....but worth it. Same with Miller.

Not even just focussing on Halladay.....we have the pieces to pull of a nice mid-season move if we chose to (or earlier). Don't totally gut the system.....but for certain guys, the idea should at least be entertained....as I'm sure it will (and possibly was last winter for Haren).....

A trade like this would mean that we have a 2 year window (09 and 10) as we would lose 3/5ths of our pitching staff after 2010 (Lee, Westbook and Hallady) yet have a ton of picks for Shapiro and Grant to waste.

I understand the desire to win yet would want to wait until July at a discounted rate (for that 1/2 year filler). I would rather us keep our prospects for now before we gut our system without a viable plan for who pitches in 2011, especially Miller (our lone star at the top until Rondon).

Yet, there aren't that many good pitchers around in July (Bedard and Duchscherer headline next year's FA class for the weaker teams). A package of 1/2 the value though should get it done maybe a Mills/Weglarz, Chisenhall, and one or two of our pitchers (not Rondon and De La Cruz). Remember we gave up CC for LaPorta and Brantley.

Remember our 2010 starter's don't look too shabby (Lee, Carmona, Westrbook, Miller, Huff/Laffey/Reyes). So, why trade the farm for a headliner - even like Hallady that you know that Boston and NY will outbid you for anyway if on the block (giving up Kennedy or Masterson and others).

With Arcenbia already in their system, they probably wouldn't look at Santana as a big need and probably wouldn't look to him as the center of any deal.

I would see what Mills, Hodges, Laffey OR Huff, and a low level pitcher would do for their interest level and go from there. I would possibly look into putting a Carlos Rivero in the deal or another pitcher to try and get them to bite.

I'm not a proponent of the "all in" strategy which involves devastating your farm for a short term shot at it all because it doesn't seem to work. It didn't work for Milwaukee. It didn't work for the Tigers.

Well you won't get a 'discount' on Halladay at the deadline (other than saved money). He'll cost just as much in prospects, if not more....

And you're talking a big gamble assuming Miller will be in the rotation in 2010 (or ever).

The big thing with Boston and the Yankees 'outbidding' us (or anyone really) for Halladay is that they're in Toronto's division. I find it extremely unlikely either would trade enough top talent to a divisional team, even if for Halladay. Angels would be the team that could really put up a great offer (Wood, Adenhart, and others). Braves too (though have added a lot already to their rotation) with Heyward, Schafer, and Hansen. Possibly the Dodgers as well....but would they part with Kershaw for him? Maybe Macdonald would do it with Abreu and others.

I do like the Bedard and Duch options. Bedard's health is a big question mark though....same with Duch (had some issues last year as well). Both would be nice options midseason.....though with the way the A's have added (holliday and Giambi) they may not part with Duch at all.

Why worry about 2011 when the players you're relying on then could easily falter and never amount to anything? We don't exactly have the best of track records with top prospects (though a lot do pan out).

The fact that Halladay does stick around in 2010 (and Lee's 'openness' to talk extension) would make him worth the risk of dumping all that young 'talent'. Look at what the Mets gave up for Johan also.....Gomez is nice....and the pitchers look nice...but most are raw and may never amount to anything in the MLs. Tribe got some nice prospects for CC.....but Bryson (one of the better ones) is hurt and who knows how he'll be once back. LaPorta has struggled (though I have faith he'll rebound). And Brantley is still kinda raw, and needs to prove that he can mantain the high OBP or he'll never make it as a starter in the MLs.

The Brewers got CC and made the playoffs.....they'll miss the prospects they gave up....but how much? They still have Braun in LF and Fielder at 1B (LaPorta's 2 'best' spots in the NL). RF could have gone to him eventually....but they have Hart out there who could move to CF....but Cain is a nice spec for CF (and they still have Cameron in 2009). They have Gamel who could become as good a hitter as LaPorta as well still.

Tribe would give up a lot by trading 3-4 top prospects...but we'd be trading from depth areas (1B and OF) mostly. There's only 4 spots all those guys could fill and that's if you assume Hafner will never get healthy, Garko will fall off and never drive in runs, Francisco will fall on his face, and Choo will struggle and revert back to a 4th OFer type........that's an awful like of assuming. Could all 4 players falter? Yes, but likely 2 or 3 will continue to work out leaving only 2 real spots. We'd still have LaPorta, Brantley, and Crowe for the OF (if Weglarz gets traded). LaPorta would also still be an option at 1B/DH. Hodges isn't a 'true' 1B offensively but could be an option there as well if not at 3B.

Again, we'd be thin, but not without plenty of options in 2011 and beyond even if we part with the mentioned players.

And this does't just go for Halladay, we could afford to part with all of them for some other player (though I don't think there's truly anyone out there that would be availabe that'd be worth all that).

Wonder if Toronto would (if this trade had any actual substance) be more willing to go after Weglarz than LaPorta or even Santana since Weglarz is Canadian? He was born in Stevensville, Ontario in Canda, which is located in Fort Erie. This is the town across the border near Buffalo. It's only around 100 miles from Toronto......or about an hour and a half drive. Bit of a 'hometown' boy type prospect for them to have to get fans excited should they lose Halladay.

1) I don't think a team will go for a local boy as a corner stone of a trade. Toronto may say o.k. to Weglarz, yet throw in Rondon to compensate LaPorta = Rondon + Weglarz

2) The value of the trade may need to be upgraded at the Lewis level (see Rondon comment above). It's always difficult to grade the prospects sent because it is not every day that a front line pitcher is traded. Yet, let's use NY Mets/Santana deal. The Mets got Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. This was their 2,3,4 and 7th rated talent per BA. People said that this wasn't enough (due to NYY and Bos not being in the trade talks too much). Yet, Santana is better than Halladay and had a contract extension. Yet, NYM did not have a great system per se. So our 3,4,5 and 15+ prospect (Lewis isn't that high rated though a bit better though than Jackson throw in) maybe o.k. They will try to get a Huff, Rondon or someone to upgrade Lewis.

3) We can tend to put up of/1b into the mix as we have a surplus. We have Laporta/Crowe beating down on Francisco and Brantley waiting in the wings. We have Hodges/Valbuena competing for 2b/3b next year. We have Aubrey/Head and Brown battling at 1B behind Garko. Not, the best battle. Yet, if Hafner is back, you have Laporta who can slide into 1st with Brantley battling Crowe and Francisco.

4) This type of trade is only done if Hafner is back ... if not, then what is the use of a starting pitcher when our main spark plug is gone ... and Martinez is also recovering from injuries from last year.

5) We do need to look beyond 2010 being a small market ... Lee talking extension ... it's nice yet if we can't do $21 or more for CC, you think Lee is going to settle for $15 when a Lowe gets $15 in a down market. Think we will sign Halladay for $18 million? The best shot we have is Westbrook

If we get a starter for 2 years ... where do you put them?- Lee- Carmona- Reyes- Halladay- Pavano- Laffey- Sowers- Huff (gone)

So you jettison, Sowers. Put Huff and Laffey in the minors. 2010, Westbrook replaces Pavano.

2011CarmonaReyesLaffey/Huff/LewisLofgren ????

Remember a Miller and possibly Rondon or Huff are gone

You are in the same boat, if not worse, than this year as you are trying to replace 3 starters as Westbrook, Lee and Halladay. We better be counting on someone as the #2 starter in 2011 because we don't have too many options until a Rondon (if not traded) or De La Cruz has enough time in the majors to get comfortable. And, if we have a hard enough time getting a #3 this year, just wait.

I would pass as I don't want to bet 2009 for future years. I am willing to do prospects. Yet, our system is more deep with younger players. Toronto would want our AA and above players and pitchers. That's were we fall short. We have Huff, Rondon and Miller to work with. Yet, then our cupboards are bare unless you want to count on Lofgren or Lewis type. Huff and Laffey are good, yet more for BOR maybe #3. Yet, neither will have time to fill the roles with Carmona, Lee, Westbrook, Reyes and Halladay ahead of them.

We need to space out our pitching otherwise kiss our 2011/12 season goodbye as we are developing pitching at the ML level. They don't come in and all do well on day 1, reason you slot rookies in #5 slot to be groomed. I would look at someone with a 3 year contract or someone with 1/2 season left in July when we know if Martinez/Hafner came back to carry our offense.

Wonder if Toronto would (if this trade had any actual substance) be more willing to go after Weglarz than LaPorta or even Santana since Weglarz is Canadian? He was born in Stevensville, Ontario in Canda, which is located in Fort Erie. This is the town across the border near Buffalo. It's only around 100 miles from Toronto......or about an hour and a half drive. Bit of a 'hometown' boy type prospect for them to have to get fans excited should they lose Halladay.

Just a thought though.....

If Santana is not a fit I clearly trade LaPorta in a heartbeat as a direct switch for Santana in my deal.

I don't think the proposed trade is an "all-in" for Halladay. I think it clears some of the depth we gained from our in-season gutting of regulars. If all you are doing is, essentially, getting two more years of CC for slightly more than the price you got for CC, aren't you way ahead.

Regarding Weglarz, if he is not the primary piece he should not be on the table. I think he is undervalued now and if we want to make it LaPorta, Huff and Weglarz then I consider it. Any more guys than that I an hesitant to include since I think losing Weglarz will hurt for a long time. Not so much right now with my thinking of Huff and LaPorta.

1) I don't think a team will go for a local boy as a corner stone of a trade. Toronto may say o.k. to Weglarz, yet throw in Rondon to compensate LaPorta = Rondon + Weglarz

2) The value of the trade may need to be upgraded at the Lewis level (see Rondon comment above). It's always difficult to grade the prospects sent because it is not every day that a front line pitcher is traded. Yet, let's use NY Mets/Santana deal. The Mets got Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. This was their 2,3,4 and 7th rated talent per BA. People said that this wasn't enough (due to NYY and Bos not being in the trade talks too much). Yet, Santana is better than Halladay and had a contract extension. Yet, NYM did not have a great system per se. So our 3,4,5 and 15+ prospect (Lewis isn't that high rated though a bit better though than Jackson throw in) maybe o.k. They will try to get a Huff, Rondon or someone to upgrade Lewis.

3) We can tend to put up of/1b into the mix as we have a surplus. We have Laporta/Crowe beating down on Francisco and Brantley waiting in the wings. We have Hodges/Valbuena competing for 2b/3b next year. We have Aubrey/Head and Brown battling at 1B behind Garko. Not, the best battle. Yet, if Hafner is back, you have Laporta who can slide into 1st with Brantley battling Crowe and Francisco.

4) This type of trade is only done if Hafner is back ... if not, then what is the use of a starting pitcher when our main spark plug is gone ... and Martinez is also recovering from injuries from last year.

5) We do need to look beyond 2010 being a small market ... Lee talking extension ... it's nice yet if we can't do $21 or more for CC, you think Lee is going to settle for $15 when a Lowe gets $15 in a down market. Think we will sign Halladay for $18 million? The best shot we have is Westbrook

If we get a starter for 2 years ... where do you put them?- Lee- Carmona- Reyes- Halladay- Pavano- Laffey- Sowers- Huff (gone)

So you jettison, Sowers. Put Huff and Laffey in the minors. 2010, Westbrook replaces Pavano.

2011CarmonaReyesLaffey/Huff/LewisLofgren ????

Remember a Miller and possibly Rondon or Huff are gone

You are in the same boat, if not worse, than this year as you are trying to replace 3 starters as Westbrook, Lee and Halladay. We better be counting on someone as the #2 starter in 2011 because we don't have too many options until a Rondon (if not traded) or De La Cruz has enough time in the majors to get comfortable. And, if we have a hard enough time getting a #3 this year, just wait.

I would pass as I don't want to bet 2009 for future years. I am willing to do prospects. Yet, our system is more deep with younger players. Toronto would want our AA and above players and pitchers. That's were we fall short. We have Huff, Rondon and Miller to work with. Yet, then our cupboards are bare unless you want to count on Lofgren or Lewis type. Huff and Laffey are good, yet more for BOR maybe #3. Yet, neither will have time to fill the roles with Carmona, Lee, Westbrook, Reyes and Halladay ahead of them.

We need to space out our pitching otherwise kiss our 2011/12 season goodbye as we are developing pitching at the ML level. They don't come in and all do well on day 1, reason you slot rookies in #5 slot to be groomed. I would look at someone with a 3 year contract or someone with 1/2 season left in July when we know if Martinez/Hafner came back to carry our offense.

Lee has had ONE really good year lately. He'll be lucky to get AJ Burnett type money, definitely won't get $20M unless the Yanks lose their minds again.

You're forgetting a lot of names and arms that we still have. None that are top of the rotation guys, but still nice arms that could fill out the rotation come 2011/2012 (are we really worring about those years?). Huff also has the 'stuff' to be a #2. Now will he reach that potential? Hard to say.....more likely a #3-4, which isn't really a bad thing. You're also neglecting any future FA signing the Tribe may have. Tribe added Byrd and Milwood, and then this year added Pavano. You don't need to fill your rotation with 5 guys from within your organization every year.