Your hear the reassuring echos all of the time. "Don't worry! The market will always come back." But do they? What about dividend reinvesting and adjusted for inflation? Given the data, one can easily see why smart money continues to invest in bonds,annuities, universal life, etc. Merely my .02 cents but remember, charts don't lie - people do.

Consider these two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which I usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through today's close.

This day in 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is first published. Its 12 initial members are the great industrial giants of the time: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber. The index’s value that day: 40.94. Source: Phyllis S. Pierce, ed., The Dow Jones Averages 1885-1980 (DowJones Irwin, Homewood, IL, 1982), introduction, not paginated; http://averages.dowjones.comandJasonZweig

Very odd the move in treasury yields today on the better than expected NFP number. Maybe "smart money" is telling us the economy is not as strong…

It's not just about big business being able to borrow and refinance debt at low (ZIRP) rates. It also impacts home buying affordability, consumer spending, higher chargecard APRs for the little guy who can barely afford it and yes, yield for the big dogs. From an investment standpoint, large investors will pay attention. As an example the 10 year yield is now at 2.15. Yesterday, it crossed the dividend yield of the S&P 500. This means it is now more profitable to buy bonds than to invest in the stock market. An interesting perspective. Check it out at…

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