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viernes, 20 de noviembre de 2015

Historic Crack in the U.S. Foreign Policy against Cuba

The world moves very fast in the modern world and brings with it dynamic changes: oil producing countries have been hit by an impending economic crisis from the collapse of energy prices and now a historic rapprochement between Cuba and the United States after fifty years. The world is turning and global politics and alliances are changing faster than ever.

What has taken many completely by surprise is the sudden warming of U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba. Knowing that politics greatly influences the economics, the Dominican Republic has borne witness for five decades looking at two neighbors diplomatic relations hampered by an ideological issue, human rights violations, and an economic embargo. Today, a long crisis by the mutual release of political prisoners has resulted in the exchange of these releases and a new turn in U.S. foreign policy. President Obama said it well when he said that after 50 years the embargo has been unsuccessful and we cannot expect different results if continued for 50 years doing the same.

However, there will be a political impact in both countries with the Democratic Party potentially losing hardline Cuban-American voters residing in Florida, and a revolution that will economically strengthen with the opening of markets and with American flexibility on remittances Cubans that had prohibited. The world has been changing rapidly these days starting with those oil prices and now an apparent "turn" in U.S. foreign policy towards Cuba and vice versa, which makes us understand that diplomacy is possible. We will see that again brings us the world and its politics these days, as this just keeps getting better.

On the other hand, the Dominican Republic is the Caribbean's largest economy and the 9th largest Latin American economy in recent years. Its economic model based on tourism, should remain on the path of growth set for when Cuba’s diplomatic relations with the United States and the common market between the two countries is opened. Cuba will make the United States as a trading partner for reasons of proximity and begin to feel the positive impact on its economy, so I do not doubt that it can develop its tourist capacity and perhaps lure some of the mamajuana loving tourists in the Dominican Republic to bring them to Cuba for mojitos.

Naturally, this will not be good for Dominican Republic, as the country now has a hotel capacity that will maintain its regional position as a leading tourism country and the trend is to continue with additional investment in the sector. The Cubans are thinking long term and it remains to be seen if the American travel restrictions will be lifted for them to begin to visit the island and with them their dollars. Only 90 miles separate Cuba from the United States and this bridge will continue to be built as long as Cuba’s traditional allies in oil-producing countries feel the negative effect of global energy prices.