[12] Columnist in Today's Zaman examines the possibility of Anastasiades'
election to the Presidency of the Republic of Cyprus; he admits that
the occupation regime became a province of Turkey and describes the
breakaway regime as Turkey's headache

[16] Turkish columnist on the recent developments in Turkey after
Syria's attack

[01] Turkey's Parliament gives green light to Syrian cross-border raids;
Erdogan stated that Turkey's intention is not the war

Turkish daily Hurriyet Daily News (05.10.12) reports that Turkey's
Parliament passed in a closed-door session yesterday, a government motion
for a one-year mandate, authorizing the military to use ground troops
for cross-border military operations into Syria.

There were 449 deputies present in Parliament, and 320 voted in favor of
the motion. Some 30 Justice and Development Party (AKP) deputies were not
present due to scheduled visits outside of Ankara or abroad. Although
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli said earlier in
the day "[The MHP] supports giving authority to the government," and
"The MHP acts by taking national interests into consideration," it was
speculated that a minority of MHP deputies voted in favor of the motion.

There were a total of 129 naysayers from the main opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP) and the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). The complete
content of the closed-door session, which lasted almost three and a half
hours, will only be available to the public after ten years.

The quorum required to convene Parliament's General Assembly is at
least 184 lawmakers. If the item being voted on is not an exceptional
constitutional provision, the majority of the votes of the lawmakers
present is required to make a decision, but the quorum for a decision
cannot be less than one-fourth of the members of Parliament, or 138
lawmakers.

The AKP has 326 seats in Parliament, while the CHP holds 135, the MHP 51,
the BDP 29 and the Participatory Democracy Party (KADEP) holds 1. Seven
lawmakers are independent. "Turkey has sent its message; in any event,"
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters after the vote, when
asked whether "Syria got the message."

Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay told reporters that Syria had admitted
responsibility for the shelling, apparently referring to remarks by
Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi, who offered his "sincerest
condolences on behalf of the Syrian government to the families of the
deceased and the Turkish people."

Atalay also said that Syria has reassured the U.N. that "such an incident
will not occur again." Stressing that the motion was "not a war mandate,"
Atalay said that it would have a deterrent effect.

Earlier in the day the CHP held a special parliamentary group meeting
presided over by its leader Kemal K?l?cdaroglu. Speaking to reporters
following the meeting, CHP Deputy Chair Faruk Logoglu called the motion
before Parliament "a motion of war," and said the CHP would object to it.

AKP deputy chair and spokesperson Huseyin Celik said the CHP's labeling
the motion a "motion of war" was a condemnable attitude. "Our citizens
shouldn't be troubled by this motion. The government and Parliament are
in control of the situation."

Addressing the Parliament ahead of the closed-door session, the BDP's
parliamentary group deputy chair, Pervin Buldan, said her party would say
"no" to the motion and criticized the closed session. "If you pick a war
with Syria, you are going to send the poor children of Anatolia to fight
that war, and no one will know about it. The public will not be aware
of what is being discussed here," Buldan said. Following the session,
K?l?cdaroglu said the government had not provided much information. "No
information was given to us different from what the newspapers had
already reported," he said.

(?)

Meanwhile, according to Ankara Anatolia news agency (04.10.12), the
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that they
wanted only peace and security in the region.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Iran's First-Vice President
Mohammed Reza Rahimi in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Thursday,
Erdogan stressed that they had no intention for a war.

"Yesterday's incident in Akcakale was not just an ordinary one, since
it showed how a clash in a country (Syria) could have an effect beyond
borders", Erdogan stated.

"This was not the first attack of Syria against Turkey. There were
seven other attacks made by Syria on Turkey in recent times," Erdogan
underlined.

"We only want peace and security in our region. This is what we
care about. We have no intention for a war," Erdogan noted and added
that the Republic of Turkey is strong enough to protect its citizens
and borders. "No one should test our determination in this regard,"
Erdogan said.

Referring to the approval of the motion, Erdogan said that that those
who were against the motion in the Parliament will not be able to pay
the price to history. "We will talk to our people about those who opposed
the Prime Ministry motion," Erdogan also said.

Also, Turkish daily Today's Zaman (04.10.12) reported that Turkish
security sources said that Turkey's military continued to launch artillery
strikes early on Thursday targeting the Tel Abyad district of Syria near
the Turkish-Syrian border/

The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that Syrian
soldiers were killed in a military post in Tel Abyad in Turkey's
retaliatory military action, but didn't give information on the number
of deaths.

Under the title "'Cyprus is also in danger'", Turkish Cypriot daily Yeni
Duzen newspaper (05.10.12) reports that the Republican Turkish Party
(CTP) issued a written statement yesterday on the developments regarding
Syria and expressed the view that not only Syria, but all countries of
the area are in danger because of these developments.

The party argued that the crisis with the Syrian migrants that had been
experienced recently at the illegal port of Famagusta showed that Cyprus
is also in danger because of the war in Syria. Moreover, the party said
that the discussions of the issue at the UN Security Council indicate
that the situation could potentially influence the whole world.

"Additionally, the bomb that fell the day before yesterday at Turkey's
Akcakale district and the state of war experienced afterwards, are
the proof that our country is in the middle of a fire zone", notes CTP
adding that the approval by the Turkish Grand National Assembly of a
motion that permits the army to carry out cross border operations had
made the danger for war more evident.

CTP argues that the existence of a multi-sided problem, such as the
Cyprus problem, constitutes a risk for the stability in the area and
that the "peoples" in Cyprus will be influenced by the creation of a
bigger problem. CTP notes that our island is turned into a target due to
the existence of hydrocarbons in the area of Cyprus and their relation
with the Middle East. It also argues that the existence of the British
military bases on the island and their involvement in a possible war
strengthen the possibility of Cyprus becoming a target.

Meanwhile, Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris newspaper (05.10.12) reports
that the United Cyprus Party (BKP) issued a statement yesterday, noting
that the escalating tension between Turkey and Syria "is a game of
imperialism" and made a call for self-possession. Izzet Izcan, general
secretary of the party, said that the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
government in Turkey "cry for a regional war" with the encouragement of
imperialist powers and makes any kind of provocations for a hot war with
Syria. Izcan expressed the view that the AKP has also a responsibility
for the death of innocent people in Akcakale.

Moreover, according to Turkish Cypriot daily Afrika newspaper (05.10.12),
some organizations and trade unions, including the primary and secondary
school teachers trade unions (KTOS and KTOEOS), will be organizing a
protest against the war this afternoon, opposite the Turkish so-called
embassy in the occupied area of Lefkosia.

Afrika reports that AKP government is dragging Turkey into a war and that
Turkey declared war to Syria before finding out who fired the missile
which killed five persons in Akcakale.

(I/Ts.)

[03] Eroglu archives statements made by the candidates in the presidential
elections; He reiterates that illegal settlers will not be sent away

Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris newspaper (05.10.12) reports that the Turkish
Cypriot leader, Dervis Eroglu has said that they would see the policy
of the person, who will be elected in the presidential elections in the
Republic of Cyprus, that they took his statements one by one and archived
them, that they would also take what he will say after his election and
they would put forward their policy. Addressing yesterday the general
assembly of Kamu-Is trade union in the occupied area of Cyprus, Eroglu
referred to the Cyprus problem and noted that they would definitely
continue their determination of putting a time limit, having the belief
that the Cyprus problem could be solved within an adequate time period
if the Greek Cypriots have the will to solve the problem.

Eroglu said that the mentality that "an agreement must definitely be
made regardless of the price" to be paid for this agreement, belongs
to the past and argued that an agreement "regardless of the price" was
tantamount to endangering the lasting existence of the Turkish Cypriots
on this land. "Therefore, I do not have the mentality of making an
agreement regardless of the price", he added reiterating the view that
a viable solution could be reached "in case the existing realities are
taken into consideration".

"If the existing realities in Cyprus are ignored today and if I behave
in a flexible manner complying with those saying 'show a little bit more
flexibility', perhaps we will face difficulties even to find a land or
a roof to make these meetings", he alleged.

Eroglu claimed that the Greek Cypriots want to take a big part of the land
which is occupied by the Turkish Cypriots and the refugees to be able to
return to the rest of the land. He added: "When we ask them 'very well,
where we will settle', they say 'if you send back those who came from
Turkey, you will fit into the land that remains to you''. Eroglu said
that his reply to this is that if Australia and Britain, for example,
send back the Turks, who had become their citizens, the breakaway regime
will also send back the illegal settlers from Turkey. He argued: "That
is, if Australia does not send away those it had made its citizens,
if Britain does not abandon those it had made its citizens, where the
Turkish Cypriots will find the right to send away our citizens, who,
besides, came as Turks from the motherland? The rights of all citizens
are of course under the protection of the constitution, under the
protection of those who govern and of all the political parties in the
parliament. And they are obliged to protect them".

(I/Ts.)

[04] Atun participated in the 5th International Energy Congress and Fair

Turkish Cypriot daily Haberdar (05.10.12) reports that Sunat Atun,
the self-styled minister of economy and energy of the breakaway regime,
participated in the 5th International Energy Congress and Fair, which
was organized between 4 and 5 October in Ankara, by the Ankara Chamber
of Commerce.

Atun, who made a presentation during the congress, stated that the most
important project undertaken currently by Turkey and the breakaway regime,
is the water transfer project and added that in the coming week pipe
lines would start to be established for it. He went on and added that
the fifty-year project will satisfy not only the needs of the occupation
regime but the needs of all the island of Cyprus.

Atun also stated that the works of the Turkish Petroleum Corporation
(TPAO) in the occupied area of Cyprus continue.

Apart of this, he said that the transfer of electricity from Turkey to
the occupied area of Cyprus using wires is under discussion.

He expressed the wish the breakaway regime to become one of the passing
points of the Blue Stream project and alleged that it is very important
for the "TRNC" which is "a country under embargos" to participate in
such a project.

Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister, Ali Ibrahim Al-Naimi, USA's Deputy
Energy Minister, Daniel Poneman, Iraq's Kurdish Administration's
"Minister of Natural Resources", Ashti Hawrami, the chief economist
at the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol, the vice president of
Canada's CANDU area, John Saroudis and the president of General Energy,
Mehmet Serpil were among the speakers at the congress, which hosted many
companies and other actors in the energy sector.

[05] Turkish Cypriot students take internships abroad; they were accepted
at the "representation" of the occupation regime in Rome

Ankara Anatolia news agency (04.10.12) reported from Rome that the Turkish
Cypriot students who benefit from "TRNC's Foreign Office" internships
abroad, contribute to the recognition and popularity of their "country"
in Italy.

Turkish Cypriot students who take internships at the "TRNC Foreign
Office's representatives" in foreign countries gain work experience as
well as visiting abroad, moreover, they bring out "public diplomacy"
for the "TRNC".

Two years old program of abroad internships accepts students during the
summer break and one of the representatives of the "TRNC" in a foreign
country is in Rome.

"TRNC Rome representative", Novber Vecihi Ferit gave details of the
program to AA and said that students take internships in Ankara, London,
Rome, Brussels and Baku for a month long. He added that this year for
the first time academic members of staff were sent to Ankara, Rome and
Brussels offices.

[06] CTP "MP" claims that that the occupation regime can grant the
"TRNC citizenship" in ten thousand persons over a night

Turkish Cypriot daily Haberdar newspaper (05.10.12) reports that Abbas
Sinay, "MP" with the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) stated that every
day several persons are granted the "TRNC citizenship" and added that
even ten thousand persons can be granted the "citizenship" over a night.

Sinay, who was speaking at the self-styled assembly, also said that
a first degree relative of a former "minister" was granted the "TRNC
citizenship" after paying money.

[07] "Those who commit crime in the south should not be taken under
political protection"

Under the above title, Turkish Cypriot daily Kibrisli newspaper (05.10.12)
reports that the Turkish Cypriot chairman of the Technical Committee
on Crimes and Criminal Matters, advocate Hakki Onen has said that the
citizens, whose behavior creates tension and a climate of conflict between
the Turkish Cypriots and the Greek Cypriots, should not be taken under
political protection.

Onen assessed the recent effort of three Greek Cypriot policemen to arrest
a Turkish Cypriot named Coskun Alaslan in the area of occupied Louroudjina
village. He recalled that the Turkish Cypriots have no right to violate
the law in the government-controlled area of Cyprus and noted that it was
a mistake for the Turkish Cypriot inhabitant of Louroudjina not to comply
with the sign of the policemen to stop at Dhali village and to run away.

Onen alleged also that the "violation of a military zone of first degree"
by the three Greek Cypriot policemen "was a serious crime". He added
that the necessary interrogation should be carried out regarding the
person who ran away from the police. He said that especially the persons
living in the buffer zone should refrain from actions that could create
tension and stressed that in such situations the "TRNC officials" must
not protect this kind of persons.

Onen said that the incidents which happen in both sides bring onto the
agenda the necessity of the criminals being mutually extradited.

(I/Ts.)

[08] Efforts by the Turkish Cypriots to play international matches
ignoring the Cyprus Football Association

Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris newspaper (05.10.12) reports that Jerome
Champagne, French advisor of the Turkish Cypriot so-called football
federation, gave them a "light of hope" during his press conference
yesterday after his three-day contacts in the occupied area of
Cyprus. Champagne said that his contacts were "very useful" and pointing
out to the "political red lines and the red lines in the international
football" noted that they were trying to create some solutions.

Arguing that some gaps exist between these two red lines, the French
advisor said that he would submit to the illegal federation some
"alternatives and strong solution proposals".

Champagne said nothing regarding these proposals, but drew attention
to some "special situations" in the world. He noted that the national
teams of Catalonia and the Basques in Spain have the right to play a
special match once a year, that a separate status has been established
for Gibraltar, that Palestine plays international matches in spite of
the fact that it is not a recognized state and that Kosovo does not play
international matches in spite of the fact that it is recognized by more
than 100 countries.

Champagne said that during his visit in the occupied area of Cyprus,
he met with some persons involved in the Turkish Cypriot football and
some politicians.

Meanwhile, Turkish Cypriot daily Havadis newspaper (05.10.12) reports
that Champagne said that he had also held meetings and exchanged views
with some "international personalities" and the representatives of some
foreign countries. He noted that he met with representatives of France,
Turkey and Britain and that he was waiting a reply for a meeting with
representatives of the USA and the UN.

According to the paper, Champagne replied to questions of journalists
but refrained from disclosing anything else.

According to the message around 700 students and 500 "citizens"
participated in the demonstration which "sent a message against terrorism
in Turkey". Speaking during the protest, "TRNC Grey Wolves", chairman
Alper Hasta, said that Turks and Kurds cannot be separated.

"As far as we are Turks, you are Turks; as far as we are Kurds, you are
Kurds", he stated.

Ankara Anatolia news agency (04.10.12) reported that the Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Turkey and Iran wanted
to raise their bilateral trade volume to 30 billion USD by end of 2013.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Iran's First-Vice President
Mohammed Reza Rahimi in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Thursday,
Erdogan stressed that "Turkey and Iran, with a combined population of
about 150 million people, had the ability and the infrastructure to reach
such a trade volume." "We have reached a trade volume of 16.5 billion
USD in 2011. My brother Rahimi and I, have placed a goal for ourselves
to raise our trade volume to 30 billion USD by end 2013", Erdogan noted.

Erdogan and Rahimi held a four hour tete-a-tete meeting and a meeting
between respective delegations in Ankara on Thursday before they appeared
at the joint press conference. The two leaders discussed Turkey-Iran
relations in 2010-2011 and the point the relations stand today.

[12] Columnist in Today's Zaman examines the possibility of Anastasiades'
election to the Presidency of the Republic of Cyprus; he admits that
the occupation regime became a province of Turkey and describes the
breakaway regime as Turkey's headache

In a commentary entitle: "Solutions to conflicts will make agenda sooner
or later", columnist Cengiz Aktar wrote in Turkish daily Today's Zaman
(03.10.12) the following:

"I was in Cyprus last week. I saw a north where the Republican Turks'
Party (CTP) has rejuvenated its apparatus, where the ruling National Unity
Party (UBP) has increasingly come under the control of Turkey's ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party), a society which struggles with
the ukases of the Turkish Embassy and a country that is rapidly becoming
Turkey-like. The south is livelier".

Analyzing the economic situation in the Republic of Cyprus and the
political scene as it has been formed with the announcement of the
alliance being established for the election of February between the
center-right DISY (Democratic Rally) leader Nicos Anastasiades and the
Democratic Party (DIKO, Aktar focuses on Anastasiades' policy on the
Cyprus problem and writes:

(?). "If Anastasiades is elected, he is planning to ensure the security
of the country by applying to NATO and proposing expanded negotiations
including the two communities, Greece, Turkey, the EU and the UN.

Does Turkey have any action plan in response to these moves? Having
become a 'global player,' the government no longer cares to deal with
such 'minor' problems as the Cyprus issue, even if those minor problems
have been here and unchanging for decades. The island's north, which has
turned into a province of Turkey, is simply an administrative headache
for Turkey, whereas relations with the south are shaped by the urge
to interfere with developments concerning fossil fuels of southern
territorial waters actually capable of supplying Turkey's energy needs.

To cut a long story short, in terms of Turkey, which has not already
written off the 'settlement' on the island, Anastasiades nor the Turkish
Cypriots will find any interlocutor. But the shape of things in the
real world might be different. Over the weekend news came that during
a meeting between Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Kozaku Markulli
and Phil Gordon of the US State Department; the US announced its support
of a settlement that would take the newly discovered natural gas as a
win-win factor for all sides in and around the island".

Turkish daily Today's Zaman (03.10.12) reported that the Justice Minister
Sadullah Ergin said on a TV program on Tuesday that the remains of former
President Turgut Ozal have not entirely decomposed since his burial.

Ergin, appearing on Bugun TV program, talked about the exhumation of
Ozal's body as part of a new probe into the cause of his death. Ergin
stated: "The exhumed body of Ozal is suitable for [forensic] examination
to reveal if Ozal was poisoned, or died unnaturally."

The Minister added that forensic medical experts had found more material
than they had expected before the exhumation. "The experts were asking
themselves if they could carry out DNA testing from hair or bone samples
of the former President, but they obtained a great amount of material
for the examination of the body, following the opening of the grave,"
said Ergin, adding that he hopes speculation around the cause of Ozal's
death will end after the body is examined by forensic experts.

The remains of Ozal from the waist to the shoulders have been well
preserved due to a water source found in the cemetery, which has served
as an antibacterial wash and prevented decay, according to experts. The
internal organs of the former President have not decomposed over the
course of 19 years.

The grave of the late President Ozal was opened on Tuesday and his
remains exhumed as part of a belated investigation into the cause of
his death in 1993.

In March, President Abdullah Gul ordered the State Audit Institution
(DDK) to launch an investigation into the cause of Ozal's death. The DDK
submitted a report to Gul stating that Ozal may not have been the victim
of a heart attack and calling on prosecutors to investigate the matter.

Prosecutors decided two weeks ago that Ozal's remains should be exhumed
and an autopsy performed.

Ozal, the eighth president of the Turkish Republic, died of heart
failure in April 1993 at an Ankara hospital at the age of 65 while still
in office.

Meanwhile, Ankara Anatolia news agency (04.10.12) reported that Turgut
Ozal will be reburied in Istanbul on Friday with a religious ceremony
to be attended by his family and close friends.

The Turkish Forensic Medicine Institute will study the remains of
Ozal and prepare a report in two months about the possible cause(s)
of Ozal's death.

Turkish daily Today's Zaman (04.10.12) reported that the European
Union has criticized the Turkish ruling AKP party's refusal to provide
accreditation to some newspapers to cover the party's fourth ordinary
congress held over the weekend, saying such a practice has no place in
a democratic society.

"The right to freedom of expression also includes the right to receive
and impart information, and selective accreditation of established media
should not have its place in a transparent democratic society. This has
been our constant position on accreditation of the media, as expressed
on various occasions over past years," Peter Stano, spokesman for
Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Commissioner Stefan Fule,
told Today's Zaman.

The ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) media and public
relations branch failed to issue press badges for a number of newspapers,
all of which are fierce critics of the party. The ban covered Cumhuriyet,
Ayd?nl?k, Sozcu, Evrensel, Birgun and Yenicag.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday defended his party's
decision, saying he is "not obliged to invite" all newspapers to his
party's convention.

Turkish daily Hurriyet Daily News (05.10.12) reports that Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan chose yesterday from among his party's 50-seat
Central Decision and Executive Council (MKYK), the members of the main
executive body of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), and
the Central Executive Board (MYK). (?)

Numan Kurtulmus who, along with a group of close associates, recently
joined the ruling party after his People's Voice Party (HSP) dissolved
itself, and former Democrat Party leader Suleyman Soylu, who also
recently joined the party, are new members of the MYK and deputy chairs
of the party.

Mehmet Ali Sahin, a founder of the AKP and a long time comrade of Erdogan
throughout the latter's political life, became the new Deputy Chairman
in charge of political and legal affairs. He replaces Abdulkadir Aksuin
in the post considered the "second man" in the party.

The MYK consists of 19 members, with 12 of them chosen from among the MKYK
members. The rest of the members are the heads of the youth and women's
branches and the five Deputy chairs of the party's parliamentary group.

Yesterday, five figures were replaced. Kurtulmus will be responsible for
economic affairs. His seat was previously occupied by Bulent Gedikli,
who was not given a post in the new MYK. Soylu will be responsible for
research and development affairs. His seat was previously occupied by
Reha Denemec, who also did not receive a post in the new MYK.

Mustafa Sentop was chosen to replace Zelkif Kazdal, who was responsible
for election affairs. Former Antalya Mayor Menderes Turel was chosen
to replace Huseyin Tanr?verdi as the figure responsible for local
administrations.

Huseyin Celik, Deputy chair of the AKP responsible for promotion and
media, Omer Celik in charge of external affairs, Ekrem Erdem in charge
of party organization, Nukhet Hotar in charge of social affairs, Salih
Kapusuz in charge of public relations, Ahmet Edip Ugur in charge of
financial affairs, and Secretary-General Haluk Ipek all will remain in
their posts in the party.

The changes regarding the MYK were announced by Celik.

[16] Turkish columnist on the recent developments in Turkey after
Syria's attack

Under the title: "Assad's new move", columnist Orhan Miroglu in Turkish
daily Today's Zaman (04.10.12), assesses the possibility of Turkey's
military intervention to Syria after yesterday's approval of the motion
and writes, inter alia, the following:

(?) There is no reason why Turkey should want to start a war. We have
witnessed numerous times that Turkey's decision-makers did not pay any
heed to the nationalistic sentiments of the general public in similar
cases.

But this does not mean that Turkey will tolerate every aggression
against itself.

In the final analysis, this is an attack against the territories of a
NATO member. Moreover, this is not a first of its kind. Similar mortar
attacks have occurred in the past as well.

The preliminary findings indicate that these attacks came from the Syrian
army which has continued clashes with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along
the border regions in an effort to recapture its positions. I don't know
if it is technically possible to fire such long range mortars so as to
hit the center of Akcakale. Still, it is not realistic to assume that
the whole incident was an accident.

In my opinion, the Akcakale incident can be readily seen as a new move
from Assad and international powers that collaborate with him.

Aleppo was demolished. Defections from the Syrian army and even from the
pro-Baath military/civilian bureaucracy escalated. Time is running out for
Assad. Assad will not win the war he wages against his own public. But
if this war can be carried beyond the Syrian borders, a long historical
process and a bag of problems, equal in depth and scope to the Palestinian
or Kurdish issue, can be created in the Middle East. The Syrian revolution
and its counter-revolution can thus be transformed into a revolution
into which all political players of the world are dragged. Turkey's
declaring war on Syria can give an international character to this
revolution which currently looks like a national or internal problem.

If Turkey fights Syria, this revolution will be able to be marketed
not as a nation's quest to liberate itself from a 40-year dictatorship,
but as an ethnic conflict between Arabs and Turks and Kurds.

Furthermore, it will add credence to Assad's rhetoric of portraying it
as a sectarian war.

And most importantly, the Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) presence in
Syria and Turkey will acquire an international identity based on these
developments; in other words, Turkey's Kurdish issue will transform
into an international problem. Therefore, the PKK's disarmament or any
negotiation or dialogue process for potential disarmament will be shelved,
and Turkey will have to fight the PKK in two fronts ---in Turkey and
in Syria.

In other words, a military operation against Syria will amount to Turkey's
being pulled by Assad into a Vietnam-like quagmire which would be very
much like the Russians' Afghanistan and the Americans' Vietnam. And
in the Syrian territories, Turkey will have to fight 20 million Kurds,
not those who want to give it a Vietnam-like quagmire.

Syria's Kurds have been unfortunately delivered to the PKK's yoke. What do
you think Assad's army is doing by the way? According to the Financial
Times story, they play cards in their outposts. Just as Turkey is
currently being pulled by the PKK back to the 1990s, it is being pulled
to a Vietnam-like quagmire in Syria. (?)

The possibility of President Ahmet Davutoglu's being at the helm of the
Turkish foreign policy is a great chance. But this is not enough. It is
a historic responsibility for the government to carefully manage the
process taking into consideration the national delusions and future
provocations which may prove more dangerous than the one in Akcakale".

Also, in a commentary entitled: "Ankara not eager to enter war" in
Turkish daily Hurriyet Daily News (05.10.12), columnist Mehmet Ali
Birand describes the developments in Syria after the recent attack and
supports that Ankara acted in an intelligent way, since on the one hand
it retaliated and on the other it intensified diplomatic traffic. The
columnist writes also the following:

"It was important that the secretary-general of United Nations was
mobilized and that NATO came up with a supportive statement. Especially
the retaliatory bombing relieved public opinion. There is an impression
that Turkey gave the proper answer.

It is more critical from now on. Let's say, we have gotten over this
incident. What's going to happen from now on?

First the downing of the Turkish jet, now the bombs. If this trend
continues Ankara will have to react with action.

If al-Assad wants to provoke Turkey and push Turkey to fall in
contradiction with Washington ahead of the presidential elections in the
United States on November 9, this type of accident can repeat. This is
the danger.

The AKP party government might not continue its restrained approach to
satisfy Turkish public opinion.

Then all hell will break loose, because Washington is against any armed
conflict against Syria that could stem from an ally like Turkey ahead
of presidential elections (?)".
TURKISH AFFAIRS SECTION