Oh, wait, you actually want a more thorough answer? It’s not already so obvious that after the cancellations of Marvel’s Iron Fist, Luke Cage, and Daredevil that the final two series will be next? This isn’t like a slasher film where one terrorized protagonist will make it out alive. This is the cutthroat world of streaming, baby, and there are no guarantees! Jessica Jones and the Punisher are goners, that is for sure.

Okay okay okay, it’s not for sure. Netflix hasn’t canceled either of them yet, and both have new seasons on the way in 2019. The Punisher Season 2 was filmed at around the same time as Daredevil Season 3 (which dropped in October), and Jessica Jones Season 3 was filmed over the spring and summer. Odds are they’ll both hit Netflix within the next six months, meaning that Netflix is still in the Marvel business at least until then. But after that? They’re gone. Done for. Buh-bye.

At least that’s what I’m guessing. I mean, that’s the only prediction that makes any sense. Here’s why: Netflix got into the Marvel business way back in November 2013 with the announcement of 5 original series. Daredevil, Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, and Iron Fist would all get their own shows before teaming up in The Defenders, a one-off limited series. After a year of development and production, Marvel’s Daredevil Season 1 debuted in April 2015. Jessica Jones Season 1 followed in November, 2015. Daredevil Season 2 (which introduced the Punisher) and Luke Cage Season 1 followed in 2016, and Iron Fist arrived in early 2017. The Defenders teamed up in late summer 2017, and the Punisher’s spinoff show arrived after that. Netflix was happily part of Marvel’s sprawling cinematic universe (even if the movies never once crossed over with any of the Netflix ones).

Photo: Netflix

And then 2018 happened. Specifically, Disney+ –the rival streaming service in the works from Marvel’s owner–made a move.

2018 was a massive year for Marvel shows, releasing four seasons of all four original Netflix series. But hot on the heels of their biggest year ever, the future for the Marvel/Netflix shows started to look increasingly bleak. Netflix canceled Iron Fist the day Daredevil Season 3 dropped. Luke Cage, which was in early production on Season 3, was canceled a few days later. And now, a month and a half after Daredevil Season 3 scored rave reviews, the Man Without Fear is now a man without a show. This sudden change leaves no doubt that Jessica Jones and ThePunisher are definitely next.

That change between September and October is apparently, I presume, the cut-off point. Everything that was filmed before then has not yet been canned. Everything else, donezo. As far as I can tell, that’s the only reason why Jessica Jones and The Punisher have been spared; they have seasons shot and ready to go, so no reason to announce they’re ending right now.

But there’s no reason to assume they won’t be canceled in the weeks following their still TBA releases. And even if they’re super successful with critics and viewers, Daredevil’s cancellation proves there’s no saving these shows. Daredevil Season 3 was the best-reviewed Marvel show of the past few years and it was the most popular Marvel show by far. It’s one of the most successful Netflix originals ever. That didn’t save it, though, not after that Disney+ announcement was made.

So yeah, Jessica Jones and Punisher will be the next to go because it really looks like Netflix has no interest in continuing shows for Marvel now that Disney+ is getting into the Marvel TV show business. Turns out superheroes are powerless against a streaming service rivalry.