U.S. Outlook: What’s the current health of the housing market?

Both new and existing home sales dropped sharply in April. So we thought now would be a good time to look at the health of the U.S. housing market, given the 66 basis point rise in 30-Yr mortgage interest rates since the beginning of the year.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 25.

Key observations:

Existing home sales declined 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April.

Total existing home inventory at the end of April was 1.80 million units, a 6.3% drop from a year ago. Existing home inventories have fallen year-over-year for 35 consecutive months.

Low inventory also is having a big impact on home prices and affordability. The median existing home price increased 5.3% year-over-year in April to $257,900, an increase in the median home price of 60% since July 2011.

We forecast a modest 0.7% increase in existing home sales in 2018, down from a 1.8% increase in 2017.

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