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Monday, November 12, 2012

He has 24 goals in 36 career AHL games, which includes 10 he scored in 13 playoff games.

With a disappointing 6-4-0-1 start and a scant 33 goals forward, the Toronto Marlies will be happy to add the winger to their lineup when he returns from injury, which could be as early as Friday.

Frattin was one of the brighter lights on a strong Marlies team last season, which gave Leafs Nation hope that he would soon help the Maple Leafs.

While Frattin has shown an ability to score at the AHL level, he was used primarily in a bottom six role with the big club, minus a few games played alongside Mikhail Grabovski after Randy Carlyle took over.

Physically, Frattin has the making on a banging, crashing style forward that would be extremely valuable on the third line. And statistically, he should be able to excel in that role immediately. He scored 8 goals in 56 games, which prorates to about 11 over a full season. That's the amount a good third line winger scores.

But after
his goal-scoring barrage in the AHL, perhaps his NHL ceiling
is higher than that of a third line player.What's concerning, aside from an inflated 20.6 AHL shooting percentage, is that Frattin
broke into the NHL as a 24-year-old and the history of top six players
breaking into the league that late does not inspire
confidence. In fact, since the lockout, a total of 48 forwards have been
rookies in their 24-year-old season and only seven have produced enough
in at least one season to be considered top six players.

Here
is a look at the points per game those players compiled across
different levels of hockey and how old they were when they hit 40 points
in a single NHL season (which is what a second line winger will
typically produce).

NHL rookie season

College

ECHL

AHL (incl. playoffs)

Age break 40 points

Rene Bourque

0.44

0.64

NA

0.72

27

Alex Burrows

0.28

NA

0.83

0.54

27

ViktorStalberg

0.35

0.72

NA

0.83

26

Dustin Penner

0.55

0.53

NA

0.84

24

RyaneClowe

0.59

NA

NA

0.74

26

David Desharnais

0.51

NA

1.56

1.01

25*

Mikhail Grabovski

0.38

NA

NA

0.87

27*

Matt Frattin

0.27

0.77

NA

0.86

?

*Both Desharnais and Grabovski
are centres, which is a position that averages 50 points on the second
line, so the age listed refers to the age in which they broke 50 points,
not 40.

Compared to those other players, Frattin
had the worst rookie season, only slightly below Alex Burrows, although
his statistics across college and the AHL compare favourably. In fact,
only Desharnais scored at a better rate in the AHL.

I should explicitly state that the select group of forwards above represent a best case scenario for Frattin and those are only 15 percent of forwards who were 24-year-old rookies. The vast majority of players who establish themselves as NHLers that late are either bottom six role players or are out of the NHL entirely within a few seasons.

Accordingly, whether Frattin can carve out a spot for
himself in the top six long-term is a long shot. He
does compare well to other late-blooming forwards who entered the league as
24-year-olds, but the Leafs own a crowded top six as it is and have a
variety of non-bottom-six-type prospects (e.g., Nazem Kadri) looking for
jobs as well. Even if Frattin has the ability to play in the top six, he
might not get the opportunity.

Moreover, the group of forwards above did not first hit the 40-point mark until age 26, on average. So I think Frattin, in his 25-year-old season, ultimately ends up on the third line this year (yes, provided there is an NHL season). He will likely be flanked by Nikolai Kulemin, Toronto’s most defensively responsible winger. The 30 goals Kulemin
scored in 2010-11 might be a high-water mark, but he’s still an
effective hockey player that should net more than the measly seven he
did last season. Combining these two wingers would make for a very physical third line, one that the Leafs have desperately needed for many years.

Regardless of where he plays in the NHL, Matt Frattin has proved he no longer belongs in the AHL. And with a flash of NHL success already on his resume, he has done more than what most fourth round picks ever do. The question now isn't whether Matt Frattin is an NHLer. It is whether he can make the difficult leap from the checking line to the scoring line.