Computational Complexity and other fun stuff in math and computer science from Lance Fortnow and Bill Gasarch

Monday, November 03, 2008

Will fivethirdyeight.com use this poll?

I had my Graduate Class in Communication Complexity
VOTE FOR PREZ in a secret ballot. The rules were:
They could vote for anyone on the ballot in Maryland,
(I supplied a ballot with all of the candidates in Maryland)
OR write someone in OR write NONE OF THE ABOVE.
Here are the candidates and how many votes they got.

Obama-Biden, Democrat party: 11 votes

McCain-Palin, Republican: 1 vote

McKinney-Clemente, Green: 1 vote

Barr-Root, Libertarian: 0 vote

Nader-Gonzalez, Independent: 1 vote

Baldwin-Castle, Constitution: 0 votes

None of the Above: 1 vote.

Speculation:

Usually the Republican does better than this, and McCain is
one of those Republicans who (perhaps used to) appeal to
moderates and even democrats. So why only one vote?
(1) ``I used to like McCain before he turned rightward this campaign'',
(2) My class actually likes Obama. In the past there were people who
couldn't stand Kerry or Gore, so while they didn't like Bush, they
voted for him anyway.

Usually I get one or two Libertarian voters.
Why note this year? Speculation:
(1) They think of Barr are really being a republican,
(2) They think Obama really does transcent party and ideology.
(3) The libertarians are tired of having their votes not count.
(4) They got confused by the butterfly ballot that I used.

Our student body is somewhat liberal. Or maybe its just
that the students at Univ of MD interested in
applying Ramsey Theory to Communiation Complexity are
somewhat liberal.

One of my colleagues was amazed that McCain got one vote.

Of the 15 people in my class, around 10 are from other countries.

This could be bad news for Mccain. There is that classic saying:
as goes Graduate Communication Complexity, so goes the nation.

Is it foolish to look at a small poll from an obviously biased source?
Perhaps yes, but compare that to the networks yammering on enlessly about
small shifts here and there.

5 comments:

Maybe the validity of the secrecy of the balloting was suspect so many people voted the way they felt you wanted them to vote. These are people whose handwriting, and writing implement of choice you have seen numerous times already, as well as what ever residual knowledge you have about who is associated with which ballot by whatever system you used to distribute and collect them.

I gave them a ballot where they had to put an X nextto one of the candidates.No handwriting giveaways.Writing implements? About half of the class hands their homework in typed in latex.Also I can't imagine they would think I would holdhow they voted against them.(And in fact, I would not,even if I knew who votedwhich way.)

I'd normally be one of those libertarians, but I don't really care for Barr. (See article).

I like Obama for his open government initiatives.

Additionally, I don't think anyone was worrying about Gasarch finding out the way they voted, let alone what he would think of it. Its enough that he UNDERSTANDS who we voted for, he doesn't have to be HAPPY about it. :)