College picks: Week 2

I mentioned that last week’s opening lineup was as good as any I could remember. This week isn’t so highly-anticipated. Many of the nation’s top teams are playing glorified preseason games against small-conference and FCS schools. The ones that played big-time openers a week ago – Alabama, Clemson and Virginia Tech, especially – mostly ramped it down for Week 2. Still, there are a few good matchups on the docket for Saturday, particularly in the SEC.

Auburn at Mississippi State, noon Saturday:

New Auburn defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder seems to have already made an impact on the Tigers. The bend-but-don’t-break defensive style he employed to great success at Georgia was in full effect last week against Clemson. The Tigers gave up 528 yards of total offense, but they held Clemson to field goals and gave themselves a chance in a 26-19 loss at the Georgia Dome. Many of Clemson’s big plays would likely have gone for touchdowns when Ted Roof was running the Auburn defense. Now comes a road test against an offense that isn’t nearly so explosive. Auburn will have to ground it out in a defensive struggle, but I like the Tigers to avoid an 0-2 start.

Auburn 16, Mississippi State 10.

Miami at No. 21 Kansas State, noon Saturday:

Who knows what to think of these teams after last week? K-State, they of the skin-of-their-teeth victories last season, struggled with Missouri State before a 35-point outburst in the fourth quarter provided the blowout everyone expected. Miami ended up in a surprising track meet at Boston College, coming away with a 42-31 victory over an Eagles team that was simply awful last season. Tight contests, even against FCS competition, are nothing new for the Wildcats. They slipped past Eastern Kentucky 10-7 before reaching the Cotton Bowl in 2011. After last week, I have real questions about the Miami defense.

Kansas State 34, Miami 28.

No. 24 Florida at Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. Saturday:

The first of two debuts for the SEC’s newest members doubles as Texas A&M’s season opener. The Aggies had their first game at Louisiana Tech postponed by Hurricane Isaac. It’s also the first game for coach Kevin Sumlin, who has brought the air raid offense over from Houston. His team has a lot of offensive talent, but it’s in a new system with a freshman quarterback, Johnny Manziel, making his first start. But Florida’s offense was a near disaster in a lackluster victory against Bowling Green on Saturday, which makes this a tough one to figure out. The Gators are more settled on defense, so I’ll tab them to win a sloppy conference opener.

Florida 20, Texas A&M 14.

No. 16 Nebraska at UCLA, 7:30 p.m. Saturday:

Both teams’ starting quarterbacks had impressive (and surprising) debuts last week. UCLA’s Brett Hundley is a redshirt freshman who rushed for a 72-yard touchdown on his first collegiate play last week at Rice. The Bruins went on to win, 49-24. Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez, often maligned as a passer, lit up Southern Miss for 354 yards and five touchdowns. But I don’t think we’re in for a shootout Saturday in the Rose Bowl. Nebraska is too good on defense to let a freshman QB run wild. I’m still not sure I buy Martinez as a legit passer, but he’ll find enough success against the Bruins to get it done.

Nebraska 31, UCLA 17.

No. 7 Georgia at Missouri, 7:45 p.m. Saturday:

Georgia just might have answered some of its biggest off-season questions against Buffalo – production at tailback, special teams – but it created a few more with a lackluster performance on defense. Was that because the Bulldogs were looking ahead to this week, or are their defensive suspensions and injuries really that debilitating? We’ll find out Saturday against a dangerous Missouri offense. In the end, I have faith in Georgia’s front seven. The Tigers are mixing and matching players on the offensive line, so I expect All-American outside linebacker Jarvis Jones and company to cause just enough havoc to escape Columbia having handed Missouri its first SEC loss.