Now, it is certainly possible that Romney will win the popular vote. But the fact that this "model" thinks that is 77% likely means it is deeply flawed, regardless of past performance. A good model would not give a 77 percent chance to something that is probably around 45 percent likely to occur. If you don't see this, you are engaging in magical thinking, and you might as well go buy Romney betting futures for a "bargain".

gulogulo:You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.

I've thought that myself. The truth is that economic policy by a president doesn't start to have any impact on the overall economy until around 4 years after implementation and even then it's somewhat limited. I get infuriated every time I hear Romney rattle off numbers about jobs lost and the even deficit/debt, most of which has absolutely nothing to do with what Obama has done and more to do with what was already there. Romney himself knows this and is being intellectually dishonest to win. That's his thing though; say anything.

CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.

JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS:CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.

HotWingConspiracy:Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

GanjSmokr:HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.

Lost Thought 00:TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.

Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.

I think that would cause open revolution

The thing that has kept the Electoral College around for so long (even when it seems like it's an anachronism) is that is scales well. Can you imagine the Derp-fest that would occur if a nation of 150+ million voters had to do a recount.

gtraz:GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.

Would be delicious if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college... all these retards that have shouted "we're not a democracy, we're a republic!" and defended the supreme court for years will do a 180 so hard they'll break their necks.

gtraz:GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.

I find it surprising that I even read the blog article... I'm not doing more work than that!

Mercutio74:Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....

No, zero predictions. Basically they took 8 data points and fit an equation that would fit all data points. Then they take that equation and see what it says about this election. It would have to get several elections right before you would want to start talking about predictive power. But the fact that it is so far off (no one thinks there is anywhere near a 77 percent chance of a Romney victory) suggests to me that it won't get it's string of successes. Most likely after this election they will add this election and come up with a new equation which will get the next one wrong. It's important to stress that this "model" has already shown itself to be wrong, because even if Romney wins they put the odds way too high.

Hollie Maea:Mercutio74: Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....

No, zero predictions. Basically they took 8 data points and fit an equation that would fit all data points. Then they take that equation and see what it says about this election. It would have to get several elections right before you would want to start talking about predictive power. But the fact that it is so far off (no one thinks there is anywhere near a 77 percent chance of a Romney victory) suggests to me that it won't get it's string of successes. Most likely after this election they will add this election and come up with a new equation which will get the next one wrong. It's important to stress that this "model" has already shown itself to be wrong, because even if Romney wins they put the odds way too high.

I stopped paying attention to the article when I realized the writer couldn't tell the difference between a model and a poll. CampusReform.org indeed - they should start by reforming their stats classes.

SithLord:I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.

I think the riots would be in case of an Obama win. The GOP seems to be cherry picking some curious data analysis and making it seem like Romney's got a chance. In fact, the polling in the states that he needs to win are trending in the opposite way. Even if those swing states stay put, he still loses handily.

Why do the conservatives insist on deluding themselves this way? Isn't it obvious that this prediction is a major outlier? Is it that important to swaddle yourself in thoughts of a comfortable outcome that you're willing to risk major disappointment?

I don't know the answer to any of these questions, but this prediliction towards bubble building is exactly why I no longer want to put you people in charge of anything. Not the dog pound, let alone the presidency.