Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Thursday, 26 August 2010

A change of heart since the post saying that I would be updating the ratings with League Cup results, albeit with reduced ratings. Well, it was true in a way, but the adjustments for games involving Premier League teams will be zero. Having looked at the teams that several clubs put out, there's just no point in counting the results at all.Sampdoria almost took care of business on Tuesday by taking an early 2-0 lead over Werder Bremen turning a 1.29 lay into a nice green. They then went 3-0 up and had the tie in the bag, before allowing Werder Bremen back into the game with a 90th minute goal and ended up losing in extra-time. On the subject of disparity in today's Premier League, Ian Plenderleith has this to say:

The Premier League has become a long-haul jumbo jet. A few of the elite are in First Class, then there are a handful of First Class wannabes in Business (also known as Europa Class), while the majority of passengers stoically walk by on their way to Economy, coping with a flush of envy before fighting for a bit of legroom with all the other undesirables who are making up the numbers. They’re all in the same machine, but no one’s pretending they’re equal, because what can you do? Economy Class doesn’t complain, because it can’t afford to. And, sigh, did you see those beautiful reclining seats they have up front? You’ve got to admire it, Guy, absolutely first class.

My Californian wife was excited to read the following news item yesterday, not the horse racing bit, but the other part

Legislation to raise takeout rates, supported by tracks and horsemen, has been introduced in the California state legislature. Although without much fanfare, the bill -- AB 2414 -- also would allow exchange betting in the state, and naturally has the support of the giant Betfair. The English-based betting exchange already has established a strong California presence with its acquisition of TVG, the all-racing television network.

1 comment:

It seems reasonably fair to cast aside many of those Carling Cup games. But there are still some worthy of inclusion e.g. Wigan and Sunderland. You have information on these teams - use it.

Ignoring teams with weakened teams raises another question. What do you do when teams are forced to play League games with teams weakened to various degrees by injuries and suspensions? Adjustments need to be made. You can't rely on ratings which steadfastly ignore what strength of team has been fielded.

Say, for example, Chelsea had to play their next 10 games without Drogba. As far as I can tell from what you've said about your ratings, this wouldn't show in your ratings.

It's not easily done (accurately) but there are ways and means. When he is absent you should be tweaking your workings so Chelsea's results without him are achieved with a lower Elo rating.

It's similar to the type of change you need to make if a team has a numerical advantage for part of a game. I presume you already do this. Playing the best part of a game with 10 men makes an enormous difference.

Likewise, what should you be doing if a team signs a player who clearly, and immediately, improves their team. You need to up their rating appropriately. Your weighting of results alone will not be enough to capture the effect (there are players who fit this bill and won't need bedding in time)

To try and do those things for all the Leagues you maintain your ratings for is a near impossible task. You would need immense knowledge of European football and there wouldn't be enough time. You would need to know every player in every League and take time analysing every match and line-up.

Which is why it's important to concentrate on Leagues you know well and can follow properly.

There will be experts in every League who help shape the markets and will take in all these factors and many more besides. Ratings purely based on results are not enough to beat the markets long-term and anyone who thinks they are is simply kidding themselves. Specialisation into certain markets and expertise and knowledge in these markets is key.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.