3 Travel demand to 2050 Passenger and freight travel by mode in the ETP 4DS Total travel demand increased by almost 50% in the last decade and is likely to double until 2050 compared to 2010 levels. With no dedicated policies, road travel might almost double as well. Most of the demand growth is coming from non-oecd countries.

7 ETP 2012 scenarios: Cost comparison The IEA Improve case (focus on technology) reduces expenditures on fuels, whereas the Avoid/Shift case (focus on behavioural change) cuts down infrastructure and vehicle costs. An avoid, shift and improve (2DS) approach could save as much as USD 90 trillion over 4DS spending. More than 20% of these cumulative savings can come from less infrastructure expenditures.

8 Example: Road IS projection Based on historic road occupancy levels: Region specific ratio of vehicle-pkm per lane-km Future infrastructure expansion with respect to: Construction capacity limit: How fast has road infrastructure been added in the past (e.g. China on average 350,000km per year)? Density limits: Ratio of lane-km per land area; currently Japanese density is taken as constraint Road occupancy limit: What is the acceptable road occupancy limit (currently: 1.8 mio vkm per lane km; for comparison: OECD average 0.5 mio vkm per lane km)

11 Conclusions Road infrastructure accounts for almost 20% of all cumulative transport expenditures 2010 to 2050 Need to re-think that!!! Infrastructure costs can be a key piece in climate change mitigation scenarios Avoid /Shift: Rail and public transit (bus, metro, light rail, BRT) offer big potential to accommodate travel growth at lower longterm costs while reducing GHG emissions at the same time Emerging/developing countries are primary targets, as the transport system is largely to be built Infrastructure data is imperative to understand how projected travel growth can be accommodated, and what are potential effects on congestion levels/utilization rates

ADVOCATING PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION DID YOU KNOW THAT The public transport sector is amongst the largest employers at local level, employing 2 MILLION PEOPLE i.e. 20% of the 10 million people

Discussion paper issued without formal editing FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY 19 November 2014 ENGLISH ONLY UNITED NATIONS CENTRE FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT In collaboration with Ministry of Environment and Renewable

Overview of East Asia Infrastructure Trends and Challenges Christian Delvoie. Director, Knowledge Strategy Group, The World Bank Until September 28: Director, Sustainable Development, East Asia and Pacific

World Energy Outlook 29 Presentation to the Press London, 1 November 29 The context The worst economic slump since the 2 nd World War & signs of recovery but how fast? An oil price collapse & then a rebound

0 0 0 0 Chapter Global infrastructure a growth story David Rickards, Macquarie Bank Drivers of growth We need an investment of about US$0bn in the next seven to eight years to realise our ambition to provide

Connect to Compete! Generating growth Transport Infographics Creating jobs Innovating to compete Connecting people Transport Generating growth Transport is the lifeblood of the EU economy There are over

1. Background On different occasions, Eurogas is asked to present its views on the future of the European gas industry. The forecasts are mainly needed for conferences and bilateral discussions with European

A Global High Shift Scenario: Impacts And Potential For More Public Transport, Walking, And Cycling With Lower Car Use September 2014 By Michael A. Replogle, Institute for Transportation and Development

The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate Major Economies Forum, Paris Jeremy Oppenheim, Programme Director 11 th July 2014 Purpose of the Global Commission Reframe the debate about economic growth

Current Market Outlook 2015 Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014 The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements

City of Calgary THE IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE GROWTH PATTERNS ON INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS REPORT APRIL 2, 2009 IBI GROUP REPORT City of Calgary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Purpose of Report Calgary has seen record

MOBILITY and TRANSPORTS CODATU and FRANCE NATURE ENVIRONNEMENT 1. Transport challenges in subnational entities and related GHG emissions Mobility for people as well as goods is at the heart of issues related

OVERVIEW More than $1.6 trillion was invested in 2013 in energy supply, a figure that has more than doubled in real terms since 2000, and a further $130 billion to improve energy efficiency. Renewables

TRANSPORT The basic goals of the national transport policy are focused on sustainable development of the road and railway infrastructure of national and international importance, improvement of the transport

Smart Cities and Sustainable Technology Liam Mulligan Head of Mobility and Sustainability Siemens Ltd. Cities are the growth engines for their national economies Megatrends imply significant challenges

Nuclear power is part of the solution for fighting climate change "Nuclear for Climate" is an initiative undertaken by the members of the French Nuclear Energy Society (SFEN), the American Nuclear Society

Prefeasibility Study for the High Speed Line HU-RO Border Bucharest - Constanta Description and Objectives Timisoara - 13 th of September 2012 1 The European Vision for Railway Transport The European Commission's

World Energy Outlook 2012 Presentation to the press London, 12 November 2012 The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear

TRANSPORTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY-THE TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE A sustainable transportation system does the following: Allows the basic access needs of individuals and societies to be met safely and in a manner

Right of way for mobility. The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) traffic concept. MAN kann. Crowded roads, traffic jams and stress are typical of the traffic situation in big cities the whole world over. The increasing

Presentation to Conference on: The Costs of Air Pollution: A Forgotten Problem Università Bocconi, Milano 25 November 2014 Valuing life and health: the cost of air pollution by Dr. Rana Roy Introduction

Energy Megatrends 2020 Esa Vakkilainen 1 NOTE The data included in the following is mainly based on International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA is considered the most reliable source

High speed railway principles Ignacio Barrón de Angoiti, Director High Speed, International Railway Association (UIC) Professional Conference on High Speed In the World and in the Czech Republic Praha,

Cork City & County Supporting More Sustainable Transport and Mobility Management Ian Winning Page 1 April 2011 Background Cork is the commercial and industrial capital of the South West Region. Population

Panasonic IR Day 2014 Overseas Business Strategy May 21, 2014 Panasonic Corporation Yoshihiko Yamada Notes: 1. This is an English translation from the original presentation in Japanese. 2. In this presentation,

Needs of Countries in Special Situations: African Countries, LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDS as well as Specific Challenges Facing the Middle Income Countries December 11, 2013 Mahmoud Mohieldin, President's Special

Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Asia 2013 State of the market: Where are we now and which way is the market going? 25 th June 2013 Agenda 1. The Global UHNW Population 2. UHNWIs in Asia 3. The Chinese

TRANSPORT SECTOR ROADMAP AND THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM I. Roadmap 1. Launched in 2008, the government s Afghanistan National Strategy (ANDS) is a Millennium Goals (MDGs) based action plan and road map for

EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 18.11.015 SWD(015) 35 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Country Factsheet Portugal Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT,

PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN LATVIA: STRUCTURE AND FINANCING ANNIJA NOVIKOVA DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF ROAD TRANSPORT DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT Legal framework of regular public passenger transport National Development

Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014 2 Purpose Illustrate the profound changes that are taking place in global and North

World Simulations with 1 Introduction The implementation of the Kyoto protocol would imply the emissions of Annex B countries to be collectively reduced by 5% in 2008-2012 relatively to their 1990 level,