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Economists Smell a Turkey in the GOP Tax Plan

REUTERS/Brian Snyder

By Michael Rainey

November 22, 2017

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Most of the economists polled by University of Chicago’s IGM Forum aren’t buying the White House’s claim that the Republican tax cuts will significantly grow the economy. Forty-two top academic economists were asked if the Republican tax bill would result in substantially higher GDP in 10 years. More than half said no, with 36 percent uncertain and just 2 percent — one economist, Darrell Duffie of Stanford — agreeing. The remaining 10 percent did not answer.

The expert panel was near unanimous in thinking that deficits will rise significantly in the wake of the tax overhaul. Asked if the debt-to-GDP ratio will move higher over the next 10 years if something like the GOP bill passes, 88 percent agreed, with 2 percent saying they were unsure and the remaining 10 percent not answering. No one disagreed.