Japan-China relations

Jingoist jangles

A row over some goat-infested rocks heats up

IN THE 1970s Japanese ultra-rightists took two goats on a 2,000km (1,250-mile) trip southwest from Tokyo to a group of uninhabited rocks near Taiwan called the Senkaku Islands. In the absence of humans willing to live in such a remote outpost, the hardy creatures would be the vanguard of a new push to solidify Japan’s hold over the islets, which are also claimed by China and Taiwan (see map).

Now the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, has signalled a more serious involvement in the dispute, by suggesting on July 6th that he plans to nationalise the privately held chain. On July 11th three Chinese patrol vessels were briefly spotted by the Japanese coastguard in waters near the Senkakus. That led to a flurry of hot-tempered diplomatic exchanges.

Mr Noda’s move is a clear political victory for Tokyo’s governor, Shintaro Ishihara. In April the famously outspoken nationalist, who has long warned that Japan could become a “colony” of China, announced a plan to buy the Senkakus on behalf of the city. A private fund raised 1.3 billion yen ($16.4m) in donations, with pledges of more. The tailwind behind Mr Ishihara’s campaign forced Mr Noda off a fence on which most Japanese leaders have sat since 1971. That was when China began to make diplomatic noises about what it calls the Diaoyus. Both countries covet the oil and gas reserves believed to lie under the surrounding waters.

Mr Noda’s idea appears to be the transfer to the state of ownership of three of the five islets—along with the vast herds of offspring of those original goat-colonisers. The owners, the Kurihara family, took title to four of the five islands in the 1970s and pledged to keep them in Japanese hands. “It has long been our fear that a private local buyer could be a front for a foreign corporation or owner,” says Hiroyuki Kurihara, who shares Mr Ishihara’s conservative politics—and concerns.

China sees things differently. The day after Mr Noda’s announcement, a spokesman in Beijing called the islets “sacred territory” and pledged to defend them. (Coincidently, this week Apple appears to have removed a patriotic Chinese iPad application, called “Defend the Diaoyu” from its Chinese App store, according to the China Daily, a state-run newspaper.)

China believes the islands were annexed by Japan as spoils of the 1895 Sino-Japanese War. In 1972, at the end of America’s post-war occupation of the Okinawa islands, they reverted to Japan. It refuses to acknowledge the claims of either China or Taiwan.

Many wonder whether the disputes will escalate. Mr Kurihara thinks not, pointing out that nobody wants a conflict between Asia’s two leading trading partners. If there were a tiff, America’s security treaty with Japan appears to oblige United States forces to help defend the islands.

Media reports say Mr Noda may have chosen nationalisation to stave off demands by Mr Ishihara’s supporters to deploy Self-Defence Force troops to the Senkakus, risking military escalation. The last time Japan and China faced off over the islands in 2010, Japan blinked first. Amid Chinese protests, Tokyo released a Chinese trawlerman who had been arrested after ramming his boat into two Japanese coastguard vessels near the Senkakus.

In pushing for nationalisation, Mr Noda may be trying to prevent further tensions. But if China takes it the wrong way, the stakes will become higher than fish and a few scraggly goats.