Farm growth may surpass 6% next year if rain doesn’t play spoilsport: Abhijit Sen

NEW DELHI: The figure is higher than the 5% farm growth estimate made by the Prime Minister's economic advisory for 2010-11.

"I would not rule out 6% growth, provided rainfall is good. And if it is better than normal year, even a higher growth is possible," said Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen.

Speaking to ET , Dr Sen said that the fall in farm production in the current fiscal, however, could be much sharper than the 0.2% fall estimated by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO). "It will turn out to be somewhat larger negative number," he said. Elaborating on the reason for the sharp, Dr Sen pointed out that at the moment the government had figures only for the major Kharif crops, including rice and coarse cereals, which make up 25% of production.

The cumulative decline in these crops, which had been most severely affected by last year's drought, is of the order of 10%. "So, the figure of -0.2% is on the assumption that there is a significant growth in other crops and live stock, which remains to be seen," he said.

The Eleventh Plan target of achieving a 4% growth rate for the period is unlikely, Dr Sen said, adding that it would require agriculture production to grow at an average of 7% for the next two years.

"In the first three years, you are adding up to a growth of 2%, which means that in the next two years, the average growth has to be 7% which is very unlikely," Dr Sen said.

He added that while agriculture growth rate could be higher than 6% in 2010-11, it would be impossible to repeat that in the year after that. "In agriculture, the addition is much more difficult. To get a growth on a high base is always much more difficult," Dr Sen said. He said the underlying rate of growth of agriculture in the country (which is growth independent of the base effect) was well in excess of 3%, but not yet 4%. " If we have a 6% growth next year and a 3% growth in the following year, we will be ending the plan with a 3% growth," he said.

This is an improvement over the 2% basic growth in agriculture that we had till recently.