Sunday, October 11, 2009

Lose-Lose in Afghanistan

It's early in 1965, and President Lyndon B. Johnson faces a criticaldecision. Should he escalate in Vietnam? Should he say "yes" to the request fromU.S. commanders for more troops? Or should he change strategy, downsize theAmerican commitment, even withdraw completely, a decision that would help himfocus on his top domestic priority, "The Great Society" he hopes to build?

We all know what happened. LBJ listened to the generals and foreignpolicy experts and escalated, with tragic consequences for the United States andcalamitous results for the Vietnamese people on the receiving end of Americanfirepower. Drawn deeper and deeper into Vietnam, LBJ would soon lose his way andeventually his will, refusing to run for reelection in 1968.

President Obama now stands at the edge of a similar precipice. Should heacquiesce to General Stanley A. McChrystal's call for 40,000 to60,000 or more U.S. troops for Afghanistan? Or should he pursue a newstrategy, downsizing our commitment, even withdrawing completely, a decisionthat would help him focus on national health care, among his other top domesticpriorities?

The die, I fear, is cast. In his "war ofnecessity," Obama has evidently already ruled out even considering a "reduction"option, no less a withdrawal one, and will likely settle on an "escalatelite" program involving more troops (though not as many as McChrystal hasurged), more American trainers for the Afghan army, and even a furtherescalation of the drone war over the Pakistani borderlands and new specialoperations actions.

By failing his first big test as commander-in-chief this way, Obama willlikely ensure himself a one-term presidency, and someday be seen as a man likeLBJ whose biggest dreams broke upon the shoals of an unwinnable war.

I'm for pulling out, but I also agree that, given the political situation in the U.S., that is unlikely. So we'll just stay and spend our treasury and shed our blood (and theirs) and spin our wheels and neglect others much larger issues facing us.