The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The gorgeous, ethereal, spiraling songs of Sprague’s Pipits fill the air of the high plains during June and July. Literally. The birds deliver their songs from hundreds of feet in the air. But if Audubon's climate model projections are correct, those songs may be silenced before the end of the century. The model projects a 100 percent loss of current summer range by 2080, paired with a complete loss of all climatically suitable summer range in the future. The winter range is projected to shift completely and shrink by half, but that may be a faulty assumption, since most Sprague’s Pipits currently winter in Mexico and are not factored into the model’s projections. None of that will matter if there is no breeding habitat left in the summer.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.