Best Picture Oscar predictions: ‘The Shape of Water’ would be first female-led winner in — glug — 13 years

Want proof that the Oscars are the ultimate boys club? If “The Shape of Water” wins Best Picture at the Oscars, as it recently did at the Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild Awards, it would be the first female-led winner in a whopping 13 years. “The Shape of Water” is told through the eyes of Sally Hawkins‘ deaf janitor Elisa Esposito, a woman who falls in love with a sea creature. The last female perspective film to prevail at the Oscars was “Million Dollar Baby” (2004), which starred Hilary Swank as amateur boxer Mary Margaret “Maggie” Fitzgerald.

“The Shape of Water” is hardly the only female-led film in this year’s Oscar discussion. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” stars Frances McDormand as Mildred Hayes, a bereaved mother who guilts the police department for not solving her daughter’s murder. McDormand has already won trophies at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and SAG Awards, while “Three Billboards” claimed the top prize at the Globes and SAG.

Of course, the ultimate female perspective film of the year is “Lady Bird.” Written and directed by Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird” stars Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf as a daughter and mother with a complicated relationship in this coming-of-age story. The film notably won Best Comedy Film and Best Comedy Actress for Ronan at the Golden Globes.

Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in this and the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date odds before you make make your Oscar nomination predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.