Expectations for the Marin Housing Market

Our experience and common sense, plus a few numbers, suggest the Marin housing market will continue to increase in value, though perhaps at a lower rate than the the last few years. Here are some factors that support the healthy real estate market in Marin:

Our economy is strong. If the Bay Area economy is growing, there will be demand for homes in Marin. Bay area employment rose 2.1% from August ’17 to August ’18, or 86,000 jobs. Professional and business services jobs led the job gain with 25% of the total. Venture capital investments totaled $20 billion in the first half of 2018, an 18-year high.

As long as the Bay Area economy is strong and there is not a national economic disaster, young families will move to Marin for the open space, good schools, and relaxed life style.

Marin has approximately 85% dedicated open space and agricultural land, assuring its natural beauty, but limiting housing. About 2,900 homes are sold each year. Limited housing means more competition and stability of housing prices.

Marin is not strongly affected by affordability issues. In 2017, 20 % or 583,000 of all Bay Area households earned $200,000 or more. This income qualifies them for homes costing $1.2M or more.

Homes at the lower end of the market, up to $2M, often receive multiple offers and typically sell for 5-15% over asking price. 30-40% of the purchases are paid in cash.

Upward Marin Home Prices for September 2018

Single Family Homes +13.5%

Through September 2018, single family homes sold for a median price of $1,362,500, an increase of 13.5% compared to 2017. The typical home was three bedrooms and two and a half baths in 2,000-2,100 square feet.
The number of homes sold was the same as 2017, but still lower than recent years and short of demand.

Condos and Townhouses + 11%

The $667,000 median price for condos and townhouses was an increase of 11% over 2017.

Latest Trends

Typically, there is a pre-holiday burst in the number of homes for sale. This year the September burst was about 25% higher than the last few years. Since new listings were not unusually high in September, this higher inventory most likely reflects the slower sale of homes.