Fears Thailand may be on the verge of civil war

Updated
April 22, 2014 19:16:00

After nearly a decade of sometimes violent political instability,Thailand looks set to enter another dangerous phase. Tomorrow the nation's constitutional court will decide whether the embattled prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, deserves more time to defend herself against charges of abuse of power. But regardless of the result, her supporters think the democratically elected leader will soon be removed from office via what they say is a judicial coup.

MARK COLVIN: After nearly a decade of sometimes violent political instability, Thailand is on the verge of yet another dangerous phase. Some people even suggest it could plunge the country into civil war.

Tomorrow the nation's constitutional court will decide whether the embattled prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, deserves more time to defend herself against charges of abuse of power.

But regardless of the result, her supporters think the democratically elected leader will soon be removed from office via what they say will be a judicial coup.

If that happens, the so-called Red Shirts will descend for mass rallies in Bangkok.

South Asia correspondent Samantha Hawley joins me from Bangkok.

So, just tell us first about the court case and what it involves.

SAMANTHA HAWLEY: Well Mark, there's a number of court cases in fact against the prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The one you mentioned there is coming from the Constitutional Court.

Now, this relates to, they say, an abuse of power, when she transferred the national security council chief back in 2011. And, what we saw there was she removed him from his position and replaced him with a Shinawatra relative.

Now, that's now being argued as an abuse of power and the court is considering that case. We're meant to have a result from that this week, but the prime minister has asked for an extension of time to put forward her case.

She's asked for an additional 15 days, and the court will rule on that tomorrow. So whether or not she gets that extra time remains to be seen, but certainly her supporters in relation to this case are almost 100 per cent certain that she will be removed from office, that the court will rule against her, and that, not only herself, but also her cabinet will be made to step aside.

MARK COLVIN: So how do they justify this claim that that'll be a judicial coup? I mean, if she's broken the law, she's broken the law.

SAMANTHA HAWLEY: Well, that's right. But, her supporters argue, I guess, that the courts are stacked against her, that, in fact, these cases are not legitimate, that she hasn't abused power, that this is all about really removing her from office, but, more importantly I guess, removing the Shinawatra family from office.

And, of course we've had many, many months, Mark, of instability in Thailand. We're into the sixth month now of political instability; we've seen of course anti-government protestors still on the streets here in Bangkok who've been trying to, I guess, rid the nation of the Shinawatra family and certainly get rid of the prime minister.

They haven't succeeded. Her supporters say the court's going to do it for them.

MARK COLVIN: And so the accusation's always been that she's actually a puppet or a proxy for her brother Thaksin. What's his situation currently?

SAMANTHA HAWLEY: So Thaksin Shinatwatra of course still lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai. He has been speaking out in recent days about this situation.

In fact, he has said, or reportedly said last night, that he would be willing to remove his family altogether from politics in Thailand if it was to bring peace to the nation.

But, of course that would also mean that the protestors on the streets would need to go home and he wouldn't be certain that that would actually happen. So, the nation is certainly heading towards a pretty dire situation in either the days or weeks ahead Mark.

MARK COLVIN: And what kind of dire situation are you prefiguring there?

SAMANTHA HAWLEY: There's no-one here in Thailand who you would speak to who thinks this is going to end well. Basically, people think that the prime minister will be removed from office; that's looking pretty certain now. When that happens, her supporters, the so-called Red Shirts, have said that they will come to Bangkok.

So far, they have resisted that; they haven't done that because, of course, there are anti-government protestors here already, and that sets the stage for great conflict.

So, so far, they've said they won't do that, but certainly they have made a promise that, if she's removed, they will come to Bangkok to support her.

Then we have a situation of course when we've got both sides protesting on the streets of Bangkok and that creates a very serious and quite concerning security situation in the Thai capital.

MARK COLVIN: And always at the back of that is the continuing speculation about what might the army do.