Total cellular services revenue in India is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 percent from 2008-2012 to exceed US$37 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. The India mobile subscriber base is set to exceed 737 million connections by 2012 growing at a CAGR of 21 percent in the same period. This growth is poised to continue through the forecast period, and India is expected to remain the world’s second largest wireless market after China in terms of mobile connections.

"The growth in the mobile subscriber base is on the back of a rapidly proliferating rural market, lower handset costs, and low tariff rates in the Indian market," said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. "Rural telephony will continue to trigger growth and is expected to grow fourfold during the forecast period. Call rates have further dropped to about 1.5 cents per minute narrowing the gap with fixed-line rates. These factors along with an increasing competitive landscape will fuel market growth and encourage the adoption of wireless services in the rural and semi urban provinces of India."

Cellular market penetration is projected to increase from 19.8 percent in 2007 to 60.7 percent in 2012 (see Table 1). Gartner analysts said this growth could be primarily attributed to the increasing focus on the rural market, local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment, and lower handset prices. Vendors will continue to focus on sub-25$ handsets to capture market share.

Every week we hope to tell you the worst is over. But half the year has passed by and the market only seems to be weakening. The only spurts (which are unwelcome) include crude oil prices and inflation.

Crude could see some short-term resistance at higher levels. The inflation numbers are moving more or less as expected now. The positive factor could be the results season which kicks off especially towards the end of the week. The grim scenario in recent months has lowered expectations of market participants including the analysts. If corporate India manages to spring some surprise, a lot of negatives will (for the time being) get ignored.

On Friday Infosys will announce its results. Expectations are that the company may slightly raise its guidance. The actual numbers may more or less get discounted. Another expectation is that the software bellwether would do well on the hedging front too. If global cues lend some support, we may well be headed for a positive close.

Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and party general secretary Amar Singh met Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh to discuss the Indo-US nuclear deal. It was not clear as to what transpired during the meeting, but one thing was certain that former President Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam's endorsement of the nuke deal could well prove to be a critical factor in determining which way the pendulum swings. Yadav met Kalam to seek his views on the Indo-US nuke deal. The former President is learnt to have told the SP chief that the deal is in the interest of the country.

The two SP leaders were also likely to meet Congress President Sonia Gandhi and may announce their stand on the nuke deal only after getting the backing of their fellow UNPA partners, who are against any kind of alliance with the Congress. The Congress party is cozying up to the SP as the Left parties have threatened to withdraw their support if the Government goes ahead with talks with the IAEA on India-centric safeguards. The SP has 39 seats in the Lok Sabha while the Left has 59 members.

Meanwhile, the Left front held a meeting to finalise their gameplan once the Government announces its decision to take the next step on the nuke deal. CPM boos Prakash Karat announced that the communist parties will launch a national campaign from July 14, to explain to the people their opposition to the India-US civil nuclear deal. Karat also said that the Left parties have written a letter to External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, seeking confirmation on w

Crude oil touched a new record high after a US government report revealed a larger than expected drop in inventories and tension continued between Israel and Iran. Anxiety over the US employment report and an impending rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) also added fuel to the fire. However, crude oil fell from near a record after reports that Iran will respond to an offer from leading countries to persuade the Islamic nation to drop its nuclear program. The simmering tension in the Middle East will subside if indeed Iran decides to stop nuclear research. On Friday, crude oil for August delivery fell as much as US$1.41, or 1%, to US$143.88 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, in London trading. The contract had touched a new record high of US$145.85 on Thursday.

The Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report showed that crude supplies fell slightly more than expected while gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose. The EIA said US oil stockpiles dropped to the lowest since January. Meanwhile, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said prices will climb to US$150 per barrel. He said in Moscow that high oil prices may slow global economic growth. Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. The US jobs report was mostly in line with forecasts and the dollar seemed to withstand the rate increase by the ECB. The ECB raised its benchmark refinancing rate, currently at 4%, by a quarter percentage point to check inflation, which touched 4% in June, more than double the central bank's target of just less than 2%. The US financial markets were shut on Friday on account of July 4 holiday.

The domestic market concluded today’s session in green with a smart recovery from yesterdays’ losses. Market did not reacted to weak European market and inflation rate, which touched a fresh high of 11.63% for the week ended 21st June 2008 as against 11.42% of the previous week. The domestic market tumbled at opening but soon started to recover and extended its gains to close in positive territory on the back of buying interest from the beaten down sectors like realty, capital goods, power, banking and oil stocks. The BSE Sensex closed above 13,400 points today and NSE Nifty above 4,000. All indices except Metal closed in green and among those Capital Goods, Reality, Power Oil & Gas and Bank stocks outperformed the benchmark index as witnessed most of the buying pressure. The Capital Goods and Reality indices closed with gain of more than 6%. The market breadth was positive as 1696 stocks closed in green while 898 stocks closed in red and 83 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 359.89 points at 13,454.00 and NSE Nifty ended up by 90.25 points at 4,016.00. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Cap closed positive with gain of 116.48 points and 100.50 points at 5,278.24 and 6,449.57 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high 13,509.74 of and intraday low of 13,027.79.

Domestic bourses are likely to track movement in global equities for direction. Volatility is also likely to continue in coming week. In the near term focus may shift to earnings season as IT bellwether Infosys Technologies kickstarts June 2008 quarter earnings season on Friday, 11 July 2008.

However tough macro economic environment comprising high inflation, record high global crude oil prices and rising interest rates will continue to weigh on the sentiment in near term.

India's wholesale price index rose 11.63% in the 12 months to 21 June 2008, a 13-yeat high, and above previous week's annual rise of 11.42%, government data released on 4 July 2008 showed. Experts opine that the double-digit inflation is here to stay for some more time, but could trend down from September 2008. On 24 June 2008, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the cash reserve ratio (the proportion of bank deposits parked with the RBI) and the repo rate (the rate at which RBI lends to banks) by 50 basis points each, as part of monetary tightening to check inflation.

On the positive side, India's monsoon has been 21% above average so far this season. A normal monsoon may lift farm production, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, and cool the nation's fastest inflation rate in 13 years.

The market will also keep a close watch on developments on the political front. The Indian government is seeking support from the Samajwadi Party (SP), a key regional party in Uttar Pradesh to retain power at a time when Left parties are on the verge of withdrawing support. SP party leaders on Friday, 4 July 2008, met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and hinted that they would approve the deal.

SP has 39 seats in parliament, compared with 59 for the communist parties. The Congress-led ruling coalition needs the support of 44 lawmakers to reach a majority. It would try and win the other five seats from smaller parties. SP is likely to announce its decision on supporting the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in a couple of days

Communist parties on Friday, 4 July 2008, said the government must tell them by Monday, 7 July 2008, if it plans to press ahead with the next step in a controversial civilian nuclear deal with the United States. Left parties have threatened to end their backing for the government if it seeks approval for the deal from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the next international move needed to operationalise the pact.

The key benchmark indices slumped to 15-month low in choppy trade to register seventh straight weekly loss in the week ended Friday, 4 July 2008. The barometer index BSE Sensex lost 348.22 points or 2.52% to 13,454 in the week ended Friday, 4 July 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 120.65 points or 2.91% to 4,016 in the week.

From a record high of 21,206.77 hit on 10 January 2008, Sensex has lost 7752.77 points or 36.55%. It has shed 6832.99 points or 33.68% in calendar year 2008 thus far from its close of 20286.99 on 31 December 2007.

The key benchmark indices slumped to 15-month low in choppy trade as a political rift over nuclear deal, soaring crude oil prices, high inflation and sustained selling by by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) depressed market sentiment. A number of stocks and sectoral indices tumbled to 52-week low.

The barometer index BSE Sensex lost 348.22 points or 2.52% to 13,454 in the week ended Friday, 4 July 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 120.65 points or 2.91% to 4,016 in the week.

From a record high of 21,206.77 hit on 10 January 2008, Sensex has lost 7752.77 points or 36.55%. It has shed 6832.99 points or 33.68% in calendar year 2008 thus far from its close of 20286.99 on 31 December 2007.

The BSE Mid-Cap index declined 280.51 points or 5.04% to 5,278.24 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index slumped 488.40 points or 7.03% to 6,449.67 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap and BSE Small-Cap indices slumped to 52-week lows of 4970.47 and 6938.07 respectively during the week.

Mutual funds bought shares worth a net Rs 347.49 in the first three days this month. They had pumped Rs 3179.20 crore in Indian equity market in June 2008.

Trading for the week started on bearish note as high inflation, rising interest rates, record high oil prices and political concerns haunted the markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 340.62 points or 2.47% at 13,461.60 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 96.1 points or 2.32% at 4,040.55 on Monday 30 June 2008.

Sell-off on the bourses continued on Tuesday, 1 July 2008, pulling key benchmark indices below psychological levels - the barometer index BSE Sensex fell below 13,000 mark and the S&P CNX Nifty fell below 4,000. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 499.92 points or 3.71% at 12,961.68 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 158.8 points or 3.56% at 3,896.75, on that day.

The market staged a solid rebound on Wednesday, 2 July 2008 with the 30-share BSE Sensex clocking its biggest intra-day gain since 25 March 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 702.94 points or 5.42% at 13,664.62 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty rose 196.6 points or 5.05% at 4,093.35 on that day. Both the niche indices had struck 15-month low in intra-day trade on that day. The Sensex hit a low of 12,822.75 and Nifty had hit a low of 3,848.25.

A surge in oil price to a record high above $144 a barrel and overnight fall in US stocks weighed on the investor sentiment on Thursday, 3 July 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex slumped 570.51 points or 4.18% at 13,094.11 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 167.6 points or 4.09% at 3,925.75, on that day.

The market rallied on Friday, 4 July 2008, shrugging off higher inflation on hopes a political turmoil arising from Indo-US nuclear deal may be averted. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 359.89 points or 2.75% at 13,454 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty was up 90.25 points or 2.30% at 4016, on that day.

India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 3.80% to Rs 2,099 in the week.

India’s second largest telecom services provider by sales Reliance Communications (RCom) fell 7.46% to Rs 438.20. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 381.05 during the week. As per reports, Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries (RIL) on Thursday, 3 June 2008 shot off another letter to Reliance Communications (RCOM) invoking a right of first refusal (RoFR). A copy of the letter was also sent to South African telco MTN with which RCOM is negotiating a deal, the exact contours of which are not yet clear.

India’s largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors plunged 10.74% to Rs 400.85. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 383 during the week. The company said high input costs, rising interest rates and slowing demand would dent sales of commercial and passenger vehicles in the year to March 2009.

Banking and financial stocks were in action during the week. India's largest dedicated housing finance company HDFC said on Monday, 30 June 2008, its prime lending rate would go up by 50 basis points from Tuesday, 1 July 2008. The stock rose 0.13% to Rs 2055.45 in the week. It struck a 52-week low of Rs 1750.15 during the week.

India's largest private bank in terms of net profit ICICI Bank said rates on consumer loans would rise by 75 basis points. The stock lost 8.03% to Rs 600.65 in the week. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 551.30 during the week. Both HDFC and ICICI Bank also raised deposit rates between 50-100 basis points.

India’s largest commercial bank State Bank of India fell 2.88% to Rs 1127.50. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 1007 during the week. On 26 June 2008, the bank raised its benchmark prime lending rate by 50 basis points to 12.75% after the central bank aggressively tightened policy in the face of surging inflation.

India's largest oil exploration company in terms of market capitalisation ONGC gained 5.56% to Rs 876.30. The company has reportedly discovered a new oil field in the Farsi oil bloc of the Persian Gulf. ONGC will undertake the development of the newly discovered field upon determining that its development is economically feasible.

Capital goods stocks advanced on fresh buying. India’s largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro rose 4.97% to Rs 2379.85. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 2100 during the week. The company received an order wroth Rs 1,557 crore from Andhra Pradesh Power Development Company for the supply of steam turbine generators.

India's biggest power equipment maker in terms of revenue, Bharat Heavy Electricals advanced 8.68% to Rs 1500.30 after securing an order exceeding Rs 2080 crore for a 400-megawatt thermal power project in Syria.

Sejal Architectural Glass, a glass processing house in India, settled at Rs 81.50 on 1 July 2008, a discount of 29.13% over the issue price of Rs 115 per share.

On 3 July 2008, Avon Weighing Systems, maker of platform scales and weighbridges, settled at Rs 11.90, a 19% premium over its issue price of Rs 10.

On 4 July 2008, Archidply Industries, engaged in the business of wooden interior products, settled at Rs 50.45, a discount of 31.82% over the initial public offer price of Rs 74.

India's wholesale price index rose 11.63% in the 12 months to 21 June 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 11.42%, government data released on 4 July 2008 showed.

As per reports, India's monsoon has been 21% above average so far this season. A normal monsoon may lift farm production, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, and cool the nation's fastest inflation rate in 13 years.

Communist parties on 4 July 2008 said the government must tell them by Monday, 7 July 2008, if it plans to press ahead with the next step in a controversial civilian nuclear deal with the United States. Left parties have threatened to end their backing for the government if it seeks approval for the deal from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the next international move needed to operationalise the pact.

Left parties also decided to launch a national campaign from 14 July 2008 to explain its opposition to the nuclear deal and over runaway inflation.

The government is seeking support from the Samajwadi Party (SP), a key regional party in Uttar Pradesh to retain power at a time when Left parties are on the verge of withdrawing support. SP party leaders today met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and hinted that they would approve the deal

SP has 39 seats in parliament, compared with 59 for the communist parties. The Congress-led ruling coalition needs the support of 44 lawmakers to reach a majority. It would try and win the other five seats from smaller parties

Meanwhile, visiting US Congressman Gary Ackerman informed that India will have to complete all formalities by September 2008 if it wanted the Indo-US civilian nuclear energy cooperation agreement to go through since the presidential elections in the US will be held in November 2008. He added that the progress was slow at the moment.

Bull were back in action as they shrugged off data showing rise in inflation. Some good news on the political front also provided solace to investors. As per provisional data, foreign funds today, 4 July 2008, bought shares worth a net Rs 372.35 crore. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 97.02 crore.

Blue chips bounced back. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks also recovered. Realty, capital goods and power counters which had declined sharply in the past few days were at the forefront of today's rebound. Reliance Communication, India's second biggest mobile services firms by market capitalisation surged.

Hopes that a political turmoil arising from Indo-US nuclear deal may be averted helped recovery on the bourses today. The Indian government is seeking support from the Samajwadi Party (SP), a key regional party in Uttar Pradesh to retain power at a time when Left parties are on the verge of withdrawing support. SP party leaders today met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and hinted that they would approve the deal.

SP has 39 seats in parliament, compared with 59 for the communist parties. The Congress-led ruling coalition needs the support of 44 lawmakers to reach a majority. It would try and win the other five seats from smaller parties. SP is likely to announce its decision on supporting the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in a couple of days

Communist parties today, 4 July 2008, said the government must tell them by Monday, 7 July 2008, if it plans to press ahead with the next step in a controversial civilian nuclear deal with the United States. Left parties have threatened to end their backing for the government if it seeks approval for the deal from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the next international move needed to operationalise the pact.

Left parties also decided to launch a national campaign from 14 July 2008 to explain its opposition to the nuclear deal and over runaway inflation.

Oil, India's biggest import, rose to a fresh record high above $145 per barrel on Thursday, 3 July 2008. The US oil settled up $1.72 at $145.29 a barrel on Thursday.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 359.89 points or 2.75% at 13,454. At the day’s high of 13,509.74, the Sensex gained 415.63 points in late trade. Sensex lost 66.32 points at the day's low of 13,027.79, hit in early trade.

The broader based S&P CNX Nifty rose 90.25 points or 2.30% at 4016. Nifty July 2008 futures were at 3965.25, at a discount of 50.75 points as compared to the spot closing. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 44222.2 crore, which was lower than Rs 51604.28 crore on Thursday, 3 July 2008.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 2.26% at 5,278.24, while the BSE Small-Cap index was up 1.58% at 6,449.67.

BSE clocked a turnover Rs 5604 crore as against Rs 5,645.90 on Thursday, 3 July 2008.

India’s second largest listed cellular service provider Reliance Communication rose 12.50% at Rs 438.20. As per reports, Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries (RIL) on Thursday, 3 June 2008 shot off another letter to Reliance Communications (RCOM) invoking a right of first refusal (RoFR). A copy of the letter was also sent to South African telco MTN with which RCOM is negotiating a deal, the exact contours of which are not yet clear.

Wooden interior products maker Archidply Industries settled at Rs 50.45, a discount of 31.82% over the initial public offer price of Rs 74. The stock touched a high of 74.55 and a low of Rs 48.80.

Abrasives maker Carborundum Universal rose 2.97% to Rs 125 after the company entered into an agreement with Foskor (Proprietary), South Africa to acquire 51% stake in Foskor Zirconia (Proprietary), Phalaborwa, South Africa, for an undisclosed sum.

Pharmaceuticals products maker Panacea Biotec spurted 8.99% to Rs 303 after the company announced its foray into healthcare delivery by entering into a collaboration to set up a 220 bed multi speciality hospital in the National Capital Region, Gurgaon.

Irrigation equipments maker Jain Irrigation Systems advanced 4.93% to Rs 458.25 after a block deal of 25.45 lakh shares was struck on the counter at Rs 442 per share by 10:06 IST on BSE

Brigade Enterprises rose 3.17% to Rs 104.05 after the company said it has won an auction bid of 10.5 acres of land of ERL, a division of BPL on the Old Madras Road, Bangalore.

Low cost carrier Spicejet spurted 7.76% at Rs 25 on reports Kingfisher Airlines is close to sealing a share-swap deal with the Delhi-based low-cost carrier. The share swap is expected to be in the ratio of 1:3, where SpiceJet shareholders will get one share of the merged entity for every three SpiceJet shares owned by them.

Jewellery maker Gitanjali Gems rose 13.85% at Rs 267.10 on reports the company plans to buy US-based retail chain Whitehall Jewellers Holdings, which recently filed for bankruptcy. The deal, if concluded, would be between Rs 350 - Rs 400 crore.

Auto components maker Amtek Auto jumped 4.60% at Rs 227.30 on reports Private equity firm Chrys Capital has reportedly acquired close to 7% in the company for Rs 229 crore via open market purchases in the past three months. The sellers included Citigroup, CLSA and Copthall.

European market, which opened after Indian markets, were in red. Key benchmark indices in Germany, France and UK were down by 0.37% to 0.76%.

Asian stocks were mixed today. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, and Singapore were up by between 0.42% to 0.85%. Key benchmark indices in China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea were down by between 0.21% to 2.24%.

US market ended mixed on Wednesday, 3 July 2008 as the payrolls data in the United States was not as weak as some had feared and with another record oil price boosting energy shares. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 73.03 points, or 0.65%, at 11,288.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 1.38 points, or 0.11%, at 1,262.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.08 points, or 0.27%, at 2,245.38

The market may witness cautious trend as US indices ended flat yesterday and Asian indices are exhibiting mix trends in the morning trades. Investors should maintain caution as profit taking at higher levels may pull down the market. Among the local indices the Nifty could test 3875 and 3850 on the downside while on the upper side it may move up to 3965. The Sensex has a likely support at 12935 and may face resistance at 13200.

US indices ended mixed on Thursday. While the Dow Jones gained by 73 points to close at 11289, the Nasdaq ended 6 point lower at 2245.

Crude prices surged Thursday to a new trading record near $146 a barrel as the summer maintenance season for the North Sea oil fields begins to squeeze European supplies. The Nymex light crude oil for August delivery adding $1.72 to close at $145.29 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for August series declined $12.90 to settle at $933.60.

Most of the Asian markets declined in the initial session of trade on Friday (July 04), on speculation that rising crude oil prices will reduce companies` profits. Hang Seng and Straits times are trading in positive.

Kansai Electric Power declined the most among power producers after oil prices rose above USD145 a barrel.

Japanese benchmark index Nikkei lost 40.87points, or 0.31%, to trade at 13,224.53.

The latest industry buzz is that a deal between Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications (RCom) and South Africa’s MTN may be announced on Sunday, July 6, which is the death anniversary of Dhirubhai Ambani.

The speculation has gained currency because, in 2006, Anil Ambani had announced his interest in acquiring a controlling stake in Hutch Essar on the birth anniversary of his father.

The 45-day exclusivity period for talks between RCom and MTN ends on July 8, and therefore, an announcement (either yes or no) could be announced anytime by then, sources pointed out. An extension of the exclusivity period, by as much as 30 days, cannot be ruled out either.

Following the feud between the Ambani brothers, the deal structure is believed to have been changed between MTN and RCom, as first reported in this newspaper on June 27. Instead of a proposed merger between the two, RCom is now looking at acquiring below 35% stake in MTN, sources said. RCom may tie up with investors, including sovereign wealth funds, to buy a stake in MTN.

Media reports have, however, indicated a share swap also. This would give the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group the largest shareholding in MTN, thereby making RCom a subsidiary of MTN.

The merger talks between South Africa’s leading telco MTN and RCom seemed to be heading for a breakdown recently after Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries (RIL) sent a letter to MTN saying that his company had the first right of refusal on any deal involving sale of RCom. Subsequently, the share price of Reliance Communications fell significantly.

The Indian Market is expected to have positive opening on the back of mixed global cues. Indian stocks were crushed down on Thursday, as record high crude oil prices battered the world markets and dampened investor sentiment on fears of weak global economy along with political worries and inflation fear. Market opened on extremely negative note on tracing the unfavorable global cues and continued to slip sharply till end. It was a very bad day for the market as BSE Sensex traded around 13,000 points and NSE Nifty 3,900. From the sectoral front, all indices closed in red and among those Metal, Capital Goods, Reality and Bank stocks were worst performers as witnessed most of the selling pressure. Reality index slipped over 9% and Metal over 8%. The BSE Sensex closed lower by 570.51 points at 13,094.11 and NSE Nifty ended down by 167.60 points at 3,925.75. We expect that market may remain volatile during the trading session and inflation figure, which have to come out today will give further direction to the market.

The Bombay Stock Exchange has decided to make replacements in the BSE Mid-Cap and BSE Small-Cap index as per its periodic review, which will be effective from 14th July.

US markets closed mixed on Thursday on relief payrolls data that came in close to expectations and with record oil price boosting energy shares. Crude futures settled at a new record of 145.29 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. employers reduced 60,000 jobs in June, as compared to 62,000 in May, while the June unemployment rate was 5.%, unchanged from May, according to the Labor Department.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed higher by 73.03 points at 11,286.54 along with S&P 500 up by 1.38 points to close at 1,262.90 and NASDAQ dropped by 6.08 points to close at 2,245.38.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Satyam ended up by (0.04%) while Wipro remained unchanged and Infosys dropped by (2.29%) along with Patni Computers by (0.19%). In banking sector, HDFC bank advanced by (1.21%) and ICICI bank decreased by (0.88%). In telecommunication sector, MTNL increased by (5.07%) and Tata Communication dropped by (6.95%). Sterlite industries declined (4.55%).

Today the major stock markets in Asia are trading mixed. Hang Seng index is trading higher by 194.62 points at 21,437.40 while Japan’s Nikkei trading down by 40.87 points at 13,224.53 and Taiwan Weighted trading at 7,360.29 reduced by 33.81 points.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net seller in equity and net buyer in debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs3,468.10 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs294.90 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs3,818.60 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs74.20 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was (Rs350.40) Crore and net debt was 220.70 Crore.

Today, Nifty has support at 3,828 and resistance at 4,018 and BSE Sensex has support at 12,792 and resistance at 13,468

The market movement for most part of this week is ridiculous indeed. Bulls failed to extend Wednesday's rally, which turned out to be just a dream. Weakness across global markets and continued spike in crude oil (which crossed $145) weighed down on the sentiment. The outlook today is again wild swings in a narrower range. Among the ridiculous things we are forced to keep watch on includes the somewhat mysterious inflation data, which will be announced at noon. Not surprisingly, inflation is expected to inch further up. There are reports that it could hit 12%. But, even that number may have already been discounted. At least the Finance Minister sees inflation at 13% before it starts softening.

Besides the inflation data, Asian and European markets would be closely tracked. Any improvement there could well lift the spirits here as well. Otherwise, we see bouts of green and red depending on the news flow. For the day, not much fund flow is seen.

The nightmare continues for the bulls, as record crude oil prices coupled with weak global markets countered optimism over a possible Congress-SP alliance. The surprising (or should we say desperate) buyback announced by DLF could not improve the mood, as realty stocks led the slide. The BSE Realty index was down 9.2%.

Other sectors that suffered the most were Metals (8.5%), Power (4.7%) and Banking (4.6%). Even the usually defensive play - FMCG - could not withstand the bear onslaught. The BSE FMCG index was down 4%. The market breadth was highly negative. The only solace (if at all one can take one), was that the fall came on lower volume.

The other encouraging factor for the bulls is that European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet has hinted he is done boosting borrowing costs for now. The ECB yesterday raised interest rates for the first time in 13 months, to tame inflation despite an economic slowdown. He played down prospects of series of interest-rate increases, saying that the quarter-point hike will help bring inflation back below 2%. His comments pushed the euro to a one-week low against the dollar. European government bonds rallied as markets scaled back expectations for further rate hike. The news also helped lift European stocks.

On Wall Street too, things were rather okay, as the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced back. The June jobs report came mostly in line with expectations and did not have anything alarming. The US market closed three hours earlier than normal ahead of Friday's Independence Day holiday. Crude oil is still above $145 per dollar mark. Asian markets are down marginally, though the Hang Seng and the Straits Times are bucking the trend.

FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs6.07bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday while the local institutions poured in Rs5.26bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs34.48bn.On Wednesday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs3.5bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs2.99bn on the same day.

US stocks ended mostly higher on Thursday, though the technology shares remained in red. A disappointing sales forecast by graphics chipmaker Nvidia Corp. outweighed speculation that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates this year.

The S &P 500 Index finished virtually unchanged at 1262.9 after earlier dipping below 1,252.12, a 20% correction from its Oct. 9 record. The Dow, which closed in a bear market on Wednesday, added 73 points or 0.7% to 11,288.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 6 points, or 0.3%, to 2,245.38.

Market breadth was negative and the volume was modest, with many traders leaving early for the extended weekend. More than five stocks retreated for every three that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Nvidia shares plunged 31%, the most since 2004. Freddie Mac tumbled, helping drag the S&P 500 Banks Index to a 12-year low, after saying it is unlikely to raise capital this month. GE and GM advanced after a drop in jobs stoked speculation that the Fed will keep rates steady.

All US financial markets are closed on Friday for the Fourth of July holiday.

All three major stock indices posted declines for the abbreviated week. The Dow lost 0.5%, the S&P 500 lost 1.2% and the Nasdaq lost 3%.

The jobs report was mostly in line with forecasts and the dollar seemed to withstand the rate increase by the ECB, enabling stocks to stabilize. A report on the services sector of the economy though showed continued weakness in the world's biggest economy.

Employers cut jobs from their payrolls in June for the sixth month in a row. But the loss of 62,000 jobs was roughly in line with forecasts. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, held steady at 5.5%, versus forecasts for it to slide to 5.4%.

Meanwhile, the weekly jobless claims report rose more than expected, with the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment jumping to 404,000 last week.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management's services sector index, fell to 48.2 in June from 51.7 in May. Economists were looking for a reading of 51. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The ECB lifted its main interest rate to 4.25% from 4% in a widely expected move. However, the euro showed little reaction as Trichet, the central bank's chief suggested that he may adopt a 'wait-and-watch' strategy.

The dollar rose versus the euro and the yen.

US light crude oil for August delivery rose $1.72 to settle at $145.29 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting an electronic trading record of $145.85 earlier. The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas rose to a record $4.098 from the record $4.092 the previous day, according to AAA.

In the bond market, Treasury prices slipped modestly, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.97% from 3.96% late on Wednesday. COMEX gold for August delivery fell $12.90 to $933.60 an ounce.

Bulls that were in absolute control in the previous trading session erased almost all their gains as the benchmark Sensex lost over 550 points. The fall could be attributed to weak global cues and rising crude oil prices. Crude oil hit all time high of US$145.85/bbl.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices all the sectors were in red, with BSE Realty index dropping over 9% in a single trading session followed by BSE Metal index which slipped by 8.5%. Other major losers were, BSE Power, BSE Bankex and BSE FMCG index. Even, the BSE Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap index lost by over 2.5% each.

Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex lost 570 points to close at 13,094 and the Nifty index lost 167 points to close at 3,925.

Avon Weighing Systems which assembles and sells weighing instruments in India started trading at Rs16 on the BSE against the issue price of Rs10 per share. The scrip finally ended at Rs11.9 translating into a premium of 19% despite a sharp cut in the overall market.

The public issue consisted of 13.7mn equity shares of Rs10 each. Of the total issue, the net offer to the public is of 98.36lakh equity shares aggregating to Rs98.3mn, which will constitute 59.33% of the post issue paid-up capital of the company.

Funds raised through the public issue will partly fund the company’s expenditure plan for setting up a manufacturing facility. The proposed manufacturing plant will be set up at Baddi in Himachal Pradesh with technical assistance from Tanita Corporation of Japan. Avon will be able to enjoy fiscal incentives provided by the Himachal Pradesh government for setting up plant at Baddi.

JSW Steel slipped by over 8% to Rs732. The company announced that crude-steel production increased 22% in the quarter ended June 30 from a year earlier. Output rose to 9,76,000 metric tons. Hot-rolled steel production fell 12% to 5,92,000 tons as the hot-strip mill was shut for 17 days to raise capacity to 3.2 million metric tons from 2.5 million tons this month. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs797 and a low of Rs700 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on BSE.

Dolphine Offshore was down by over 5% to Rs152. The company announced that it won contract for providing diving services in Malaysia and South East Asia. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs164 and a low of Rs148 and recorded volumes of over 2,000 shares on BSE.

Archies rallied by over 10% to Rs97 after the company said that its promoters are not planning to sell controlling stake. However, announced that they are looking in to various and fund raising options. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs105 and a low of Rs90 and recorded volumes of over 96,000 shares on BSE.

Tera Software surged by 15% to Rs46 after the company announced that it signed an agreement for Rs241.4mn with director of school education, government of Andhra Pradesh implement of computer education programme in the district of Nalgonda (280 Schools) the period of 5 years.

Another order valued of ~Rs200mn from the governor of state of Rajasthan, acting through secretary planning (IF) department. State government of Rajasthan in consortium with Bartronics India Ltd to implement Bhamashah Financial Empowerment Scheme in Bharatpur Division for 10 Years. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs48 and a low of Rs38 and recorded volumes of over 61,000 shares on BSE.

Gujarat NRE Coke plunged by over 13% to Rs107. The company announced that the board of directors would meet on July 18, to consider issue of bonus shares and a rights issue. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs125 and a low of Rs106 and recorded volumes of over 39,00,000 shares on BSE.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for August delivery today closed at $145.29/barrel (higher by $1.75/barrel or 1.2%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose to a high of $146.3 during intraday trading. For the week, prices gained $5.08 (3.6%).

Crude prices gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. It ended June 2008 higher by 9.9%. Prices are 108.2% higher than a year ago. For the year, crude is up by 46.7% till date.

Yesterday, EIA reported that crude supplies declined by 2 million barrels to 299.8 million for the week ended 27 June. But the same report also showed that refinery utilization climbed to 89.2% compared with 88.6% of capacity a week earlier. According to the EIA data, crude inventories have now fallen during six of the past seven weeks. They are reportedly at near the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.

EIA also reported that motor gasoline supplies rose 2.1 million barrels to 210.9 million barrels. It reported a climb of 1.3 million barrels in distillate stocks to total 120.7 million barrels for the latest week.

At the currency markets on Thursday, there was a surge in the U.S. dollar following the jobs data. The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback against other major currencies, was last at 72.757 compared with 72.034. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy shed 62,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at a four-year high of 5.5%. Payrolls have now fallen in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000, the strongest evidence that the economy fell into a recession in the first half of the year.

Regular futures trading on Nymex will be closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

The storm helped lift prices for natural gas, with the August futures contract closed up 18.8 cents at $13.577 per million British thermal units. The contract's price is up 2.9% on a weekly basis.

Gold and silver prices fall for the day but register gains for the week

Pressured by the US dollar, bullion metals ended lower today, Thursday, 03 July, 2008. Prices fell though crude prices closed today at unchartered territory. Nevertheless, it registered marginal gains for the week. The increase in energy costs generally increase demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver prices also fell.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies.

Comex Gold for August delivery fell $12.9 (1.8%) to close at $933.6 ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the holiday shortened week, it ended higher by $2.3 (0.3%). Last week, on Thursday, 26 June, prices surged by more than 3.5%. That was the biggest one day percentage gain for a most-active contract since June, 2006. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped since then.

Gold prices ended June, 2008 with a gain of 4.1%. The yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7% yesterday. Last month, in May, it ended with a gain of higher by $22.5 (2.5%). Before May, for April, prices closed lower by 6.3%.

This year, gold prices have gained 11.2% till date against a 8.6% drop for the dollar against the euro. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. For February, it gained 6%. But in March, prices succumbed and fell by 5.5%.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for September delivery fell 5.5 cents (0.3%) to $18.37 an ounce. Silver has gained 22.3% in 2008 till date and half of it in the past five sessions. It ended the week higher by 3.8%. For the second quarter, it gained a paltry 1.4%.

Silver prices ended the month of May 2008 with a gain of 2.7%. For April, it closed lower by 5.5%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%. In February, it gained another 15%. For March, it ended lower by 13%. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years.

At the currency markets on Thursday, there was a surge in the U.S. dollar following the jobs data. The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback against other major currencies, was last at 72.757 compared with 72.034. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy shed 62,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at a four-year high of 5.5%. Payrolls have now fallen in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000, the strongest evidence that the economy fell into a recession in the first half of the year.

Last week, Federal Reserve yesterday sharpened its focus on inflation, saying that the upside risks to inflation have increased. Fed held its target for short-term interest rates steady at 2%.

Since last September, Fed has axed interest rates seven times and brought it down to 2%. On the other hand, after keeping interest rates unchanged at 4% since June, 2007, ECB hiked the same to 4.25% today. Gold gained 38% from 17 Sept as the Fed slashed rates from 5.25%.

In the crude market on Thursday, crude prices crossed the $146 mark during intra day trading but ultimately closed $1.7 higher at $154.29. Prices rose due to weak dollar and production concerns.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed lower by Rs 129 (0.98%) at Rs 13,054 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 13,267 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 13,002 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for July delivery closed Rs 190 (0.75%) lower at Rs 25,181/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 25,550/kg and fell to a low of Rs 24,950/Kg during the day’s trading.

Regular futures trading on Nymex will be closed tomorrow, Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

We recommend a sell in United Phosphorus from a short-term perspective. It is evident from the charts of United Phosphorus that after an uptrend (from its March low) the stock encountered resistance at around Rs 360 in May level and commenced a medium-term decline. During this downtrend, the stock crossed below the 21 and 50-day moving averages one after another.

On July 3, the stock breached the support at Rs 280 by falling 3 per cent. The volume was heavy on this day. The daily relative strength index (RSI) of the stock is featuring in the bearish zone and the weekly RSI has just entered this zone.

The moving-average convergence and divergence (MACD) is falling in line with the stock and is featuring below the zero level. We are bearish on the stock in the short-term.

We anticipate the stock to decline further until it hits our price target of Rs 240 in the approaching trading sessions. Traders with a short-term perspective can sell the stock, while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 281.