Monthly Archives: September 2018

Summary The real yield of 0.910% was the second highest of this term through 43 auctions since May 2011. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 2.15%, on the higher end of recent auctions, but still acceptably in the “neutral … Continue reading →

Summary The current trend indicates a real yield around 0.88%, which is attractive, at least based on auctions over the last seven years. The problem? A 5-year TIPS is currently yielding 1 basis point higher than a 10-year. Why buy … Continue reading →

Summary August headline inflation came in below the consensus for the month and year. Core inflation was also below the consensus. The current trend in CPI-W would place the 2019 Social Security cost-of-living increase in a range of 2.7% to … Continue reading →