Cocoa falls after testing resistance

General Comments: Futures closed firm as bulls talked of increasing crop losses in Florida due to the greening disease, drought, and cold temperatures that were seen a couple of weeks ago. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to below normal temperatures and scattered showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 146.00 and 152.00 May. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher across the board as New York rallied and pulled the other markets higher. Traders noted decreased exports from Guatemala because of the rust, and also the marketing loan program modifications from the Brazil government that will make it easier for producers there to hold old and new crop supplies off the market. Guatemala March exports were down 17% from March of last year. The new Brazilian harvest is just a couple of months away, and traders expected big offers to develop on rallies. No one had been paying much attention to the reports of rust in Central America and parts of South America and prefer to concentrate on Brazil and also on improving production conditions in Vietnam. But the decreased exports from Central America as seen with the data from Guatemala yesterday changed some ideas, and chart patterns also show the potential for a low to be developing. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and major crop losses are being estimated by traders and producers. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and there are showers around. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 2.743 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 131.58 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 12,162 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 136.00, 134.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990 May. Support is at 1995, 1970, and 1950 May, and resistance is at 2060, 2080, and 2100 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 179.00, 186.00, and 187.00 September. Support is at 170.00, 168.00, and 166.00 September, and resistance is at 176.00, 177.00, and 180.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed mixed, with New York higher and London a little lower. It appeared to be a mostly short covering rally. Ideas of weak demand and big supplies keep traders negative to prices. Traders know that ther might be less production in India and Thailand, but expect Brazil to produce enough to cover any losses. The market could be in a new down trend. So far, no new demand is being reported, and chart patterns continue to look weak. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1725 and 1610 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1800 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 486.00 and 481.00 August. Support is at 487.00, 484.00, and 481.00 August, and resistance is at 496.00, 500.00, and 505.00 August.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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