Tuesday, April 04, 2006

OK, now that I've admitted that, I'm not going to spend much time rehashing the total domination by the Florida Gators. If I can't add something different to the stories that are out there, I just keep it short and sweet--kind of like UCLA's hopes last night. Florida ruled the game in every phase from wire to wire. There was never any doubt who was the better team and who was going to win the game.

Florida has enjoyed a tremendous season. They won 17 straight to start the campaign, had some hiccups during the middle portion of the SEC slate, then thundered home by winning 11 in a row en route to the SEC and NCAA Tournament titles. In 5 months, Joakim Noah has went from reserve forward on an underachieving team to a possible NBA lottery pick. In 5 months, Billy Donovan has went from a coach that "can't win in the tournament" to an NCAA Champion. In 5 months, Florida went from unranked to an undisputed #1 ranking.

The Gators won the game by getting the ball deep into the post and forcing UCLA to try and stop their big men. It simply did not happen. Noah, Horford, Richard, and Moss all found ways to score and rebound. G/F Corey Brewer did a defensive number on UCLA G Aaron Afflalo by shutting him out until the game was out of reach. UF executed almost flawlessly on both ends of the court all night long and UCLA is still looking for answers this morning. Make no mistake, the Bruins are a fine team and deserved to be there, but this Florida club is simply on another level. The are like UConn, only with more cohesion and more focus.

Monday, April 03, 2006

Only five college basketball teams get to head into the offseason with a winning streak intact. One of those is repeat NIT Champion South Carolina. Princeton (won last 2), Cornell (won last 2), and Harvard (won 1) also carry winning streaks into next season because the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament to pare down to just one team with a winning streak. The final team that will carry momentum into the offseason will be determined tonight at 8 PM ET (CBS) in the National Championship game.

To look at the defensive/offensive efficiency matchups, consult Lord Pomeroy. Read the case for Florida from CBS's Gregg Doyel. I'll make the case for UCLA here.

Florida probably has more overall talent than UCLA, but the margin is not that wide. UCLA has a very good offense (24th in Adj Off Eff), but Florida's is excellent (6th). Both have spectacular defenses, but UCLA's is a smidge better (3rd to UF's 8th) and has been downright nasty in the NCAA Tournament--especially in the second half. And that is why I like UCLA in this game. Ben Howland has had the magic touch when making halftime adjustments when needed.

The Bruins have only had two bad halves defensively and righted the ship in a big way against both Alabama and Gonzaga in the second half. They have played tremendous defense for 40 mins in their last two games. Florida needs a start like they had against GMU to build a cushion, because no team has managed 40% shooting against UCLA in the second half of any tournament game.

Granted, Florida is probably the best team UCLA has faced, but the Bruins have the size, length, and speed to give the Gators problems. I also like the Bruins toughness and the fact that they have been pushed more in this tournament than Florida has. Florida has not seen a defense like UCLA's to this point. Therefore...

Arbitrary Prediction: UCLA 63, Florida 61.

Enjoy the game, the culmination of another great season, and one shining moment.