I’m interested
to see if their archives show anything out of the ordinary in Capps’s motion.
After doing a quick jaunt through the MLB.com archives and a few clips saved on
the DVR, I am not seeing anything overtly different. Pitch F/X does not offer
any insight either. This does not mean he isn’t deviating from his normal mechanics,
it just simply means the handful of clips at the two available angles is not
revealing anything.

For Capps,
his struggles seem to boil down to two key items:

(1) He throws
a ton of fastballs. Capps comes with his fastball 82.6% of the time, making
that the fifth-highest usage among relievers. (2) His fastball isn’t all that
good. The velocity, while solid, isn’t spectacular. Likewise, the movement on
his fastball isn’t something that drops or runs making it more difficult to
square up. On top of that, in addition to being thrown over the plate, it’s
often up in the zone.

So far this season,
the results have been wildly different from those of last year:

Matt Capps’s Fastball (2009-2011)

GB%

Well-Hit Avg

Chase%

Thrown%

2009

42%

.285

21%

69%

2010

51%

.214

30%

72%

2011

31%

.264

17%

82%

MLB AVG

44%

.241

20%

62%

(via
MyInsideEdge)

As we have
learned, Capps does not come equipped with the often prerequisite filthy pitch
that many of the game’s elite closers possess. He does not have a dominating
cutter like Mariano Rivera nor a wafting change-up like Trevor Hoffman. He
doesn’t have an overpowering fastball like Pittsburgh’s Joel Hanrahan nor doesn’t
have a biting slider like vintage Joe Nathan. He works with his fastball.

The problem
is that it isn’t necessarily overpowering. His average fastball velocity is at
92.8-mph, down from 94-mph last year. This could be because he is using a
two-seam fastball more (as pitch f/x says) or potentially because of shoulder
issues (shoulder injuries effect velocity).

Exacerbating
the problem is that he has been using it far too often - allowing hitters to
sit on it as BJ
Upton did last night(Corretion: Upon further review, Capps hung a slider to Upton, overall point still stands). Now in his second tour of American League opponents,
scouting reports have emerged that Capps is incapable of spinning any other
pitch. Not surprising, his overall swing-and-miss rate has dropped from an
above average 9% miss rate to a below average 7% miss rate.

Because of
his reluctance to twirl his slider and the decrease in velocity, not to mention
the fact that his fastball is up in the zone more, I wouldn’t be surprised to
hear of something health-wise affecting his arm. If he has a clean bill of
health, Capps needs to work in his slider more often to keep hitters from
sitting dead-red on his fastball.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."