Congo and Rwanda

Stop messing each other up

The latest rebellion in eastern Congo does no one any good

THE land along the border shared by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda is geologically unstable, with a range of active volcanoes and an ever-shifting fault line. Diplomatic relations between the two nations have become equally volatile.

Rwanda has made a habit of invading its giant neighbour since the 1990s, often plundering natural resources in the process. Congo's lawless forests have been a refuge for various Rwandan rebel groups for decades, and still harbour a group of Hutu rebels whose leaders have links to the genocide of 1994, when around 800,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsis along with some moderate Hutus, were killed.

In 2009 the two countries finally called a truce after years of fighting directly or by proxy, and the future of the eastern Kivu provinces, which are rich in minerals, rare wildlife and fertile land, began to brighten. But things have turned sour again.

In March a Congolese general, Bosco Ntaganda, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for alleged war crimes, deserted the army amid rumours that he might be arrested. An ethnic Tutsi, he was Rwanda's main man in Congo. Soon hundreds of fellow Tutsis in the Congolese army were deserting and joining him. Forces loyal to Congo's government in Kinshasa at first made progress against General Ntaganda's lot, but then the rebels suddenly found the resources to fight back, forcing a military stalemate and creating a humanitarian crisis.

On June 13th, in a private briefing to the UN Security Council, the UN's independent “group of experts” on Congo, who monitor the arms embargo against the country, said that very senior Rwandans were backing the rebels. They named James Kabarebe, the minister of defence, among others, and one of his deputies. The group also fingered Mr Ntaganda's old boss, a dynamic former rebel leader, Laurent Nkunda, who is supposed to be under house arrest in Rwanda's capital, Kigali, as part of the 2009 peace deal. Mr Nkunda is now said to be urging his former charges in Congo's army to desert—and is attending meetings with the rebels in Rwanda.

The United States, a staunch ally of Rwanda's government, blocked the immediate release of the group's evidence, but Congo's government decided to go public, questioning the West's continuing sympathy for the regime in Kigali. On June 29th the UN finally published the report with its main body of evidence. It was damning. Rwanda, it said, was not only providing weapons and recruits to the rebels; it was also sending over its own soldiers. Rwanda's government angrily denies the claims. But the report has evidence in abundance.

The support that Rwanda's government is plainly still giving the rebels in eastern Congo, including to General Ntaganda, is becoming increasingly hard to justify. Some American officials are privately getting queasy about America's dogged backing for Mr Kagame. In Congo, popular feeling against Rwandans and their government, often expressed by Congolese demagogues, is rising. Mr Kagame blames the corruption and inefficiency of Congo's government for the county's eastern problems.

Ethnic Tutsi soldiers in eastern Congo have been Rwanda's bulwark against forces within Congo, including renegade Rwandan Hutus, who still loathe Mr Kagame and his government. Likewise, Congolese Tutsi businessmen serve as a Rwandan vanguard, opening up eastern Congolese land for cattle grazing and mining.

But many of these same soldiers and businessmen are beginning to see that peace benefits them more than the war being stoked up by General Ntaganda and his Rwandan friends in high places. Besides, Mr Ntaganda is not the force he once was. Nowadays he can probably count on only about 1,500 troops, far fewer than before.

Rwanda's government may have overestimated his clout—and may come to regret backing him. And the Americans may have to start thinking about making their loyalty to Mr Kagame more conditional. If Congo and Rwanda are to co-exist and prosper, they need economic integration and stability, not war in the Kivus.