Most likely this is due to the near El Nino in 2014 and the current Super 2015-16 El Nino that is creating anomalously high surface temperatures in Western Antarctica (see attached image of the 5-day average anom forecast)

Where would you say Mercer's canary, the 0C midsummer isotherm will wind up this year ? i suppose the 0C isotherm for December-Jan averaged is a good enuf approximation, thats whats i look at on merra and such, i wonder what it will look like this year

Where would you say Mercer's canary, the 0C midsummer isotherm will wind up this year ? i suppose the 0C isotherm for December-Jan averaged is a good enuf approximation, thats whats i look at on merra and such, i wonder what it will look like this year

sidd,

The first attached image is the Nullschool Earth Surface Wind and Temperature forecast for January 11, 2016. The green color is above freezing, so the 0C isotherm on that day will be right around the edges of the Pine Island Bay, will could cause hydrofracture for either the PIG or the Thwaites Glacier later this austral summer.

Best,ASLR

Edit the second attached image shows the Nullschool Earth 1000-hPa Wind and Temperature forecast for Jan 11 2016, showing that the coastline (at 1000-hPa) from the Ross Sea to Pine Island Bay is projected to be above freezing on that date.

A vast, previously unrecognised canyon system could be hidden under the Antarctic ice sheet.

Hints of its presence are seen in the shape of the white continent's surface, in a largely unexplored region called Princess Elizabeth Land.

If confirmed by a proper geophysical survey - now under way - the winding canyon network would be over 1,000km long and in places as much as 1km deep.

These dimensions would make it bigger than the famous Grand Canyon in the US.

"We know from other areas of Antarctica that the shape of the ice surface is obviously dependent on the shape of the landscape underneath - because the ice is flowing over that landscape," explained Dr Stewart Jamieson, from Durham University, UK.

"When we look in Princess Elizabeth Land with satellite data, there seem to be some linear features in the surface ice that to us look very reminiscent of a canyon.

"We have traced these faint lineations from the centre of Princess Elizabeth Land all the way to the coast, off to the north. It's a pretty substantial system," he told BBC News.

There are suggestions also that the canyon network is connected to a previously undiscovered subglacial lake.

A vast, previously unrecognised canyon system could be hidden under the Antarctic ice sheet.

Hints of its presence are seen in the shape of the white continent's surface, in a largely unexplored region called Princess Elizabeth Land.

If confirmed by a proper geophysical survey - now under way - the winding canyon network would be over 1,000km long and in places as much as 1km deep.

These dimensions would make it bigger than the famous Grand Canyon in the US.

"We know from other areas of Antarctica that the shape of the ice surface is obviously dependent on the shape of the landscape underneath - because the ice is flowing over that landscape," explained Dr Stewart Jamieson, from Durham University, UK.

"When we look in Princess Elizabeth Land with satellite data, there seem to be some linear features in the surface ice that to us look very reminiscent of a canyon.

"We have traced these faint lineations from the centre of Princess Elizabeth Land all the way to the coast, off to the north. It's a pretty substantial system," he told BBC News.

There are suggestions also that the canyon network is connected to a previously undiscovered subglacial lake.

While I do not expect that this new finding will have any implication in my lifetime, I thought that it would not hurt to provide a more complete reference citation:

Abstract: "The subglacial landscape of Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL) in East Antarctica is poorly known due to a paucity of ice thickness measurements. This is problematic given its importance for understanding ice sheet dynamics and landscape and climate evolution. To address this issue, we describe the topography beneath the ice sheet by assuming that ice surface expressions in satellite imagery relate to large-scale subglacial features. We find evidence that a large, previously undiscovered subglacial drainage network is hidden beneath the ice sheet in PEL. We interpret a discrete feature that is 140 × 20 km in plan form, and multiple narrow sinuous features that extend over a distance of ∼1100 km. We hypothesize that these are tectonically controlled and relate to a large subglacial basin containing a deep-water lake in the interior of PEL linked to a series of long, deep canyons. The presence of 1-km-deep canyons is confirmed at a few localities by radio-echo sounding data, and drainage analysis suggests that these canyons will direct subglacial meltwater to the coast between the Vestfold Hills and the West Ice Shelf."

Logged

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson

The linked article indicates that Kiwi geologists are studying fossils near Mt Discovery, Antarctica, that could shed light on the risk of portions of the EAIS collapsing as the current climate approaches Pliocene conditions:

Extract: "Call it extreme geology: a team of Kiwi scientists is venturing to a remote part of Antarctica to dig up ancient evidence of a warmer world.The treasure trove of fossilised marine life buried in the rock near Mt Discovery - about 50km from Scott Base - could help us better understand what might happen to our planet under future climate change.It's a place exposed to the continent's unforgiving weather - including 150km/h wind storms that recently shredded tents at a US camp.The expedition, led by Dr Richard Levy of GNS Science and Professor Tim Naish of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre, aims to follow up descriptions of a similar site found nearby about 50 years ago.The discoverers found shells of organisms that could not live in the sea ice that covers the environment today."The samples are telling us it was a warmer world, but we want to know when that was and how old the deposit is; we think it's probably from about three million years ago," said Professor Naish. "This period is a pretty important window for understanding what might happen with global warming."Called the Pliocene, it was the most recent time when there were 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere.That same level has been reached today through the human carbon emissions projected to heat the climate by several degrees by 2200.…While sensitive areas of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet such as Pine Island were important because they were already experiencing rapid mass loss and melting, Mt Discovery provided evidence of what the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet may have done during the warmer ancient climate."The thing is, when this place starts to melt, it's the last to go - so you know you're in real trouble.""

Logged

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson

Two relict channels to the north suggest recent subglacial drainage reorganization beneath Whillans Ice Stream approximately coincident with the shutdown of Kamb Ice Stream. This rapid channel formation implies that shifts in subglacial hydrology may impact ice shelf stability.

Logged

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Summary - The phase sensitive radars were developed and built at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and very precisely measure changes in ice thickness. This means that we get a direct measurement of the ice shelf melt rate. Satellites can also be used to measure this, but will only give average values over several years, while we will get a value every 2 hours from the phase sensitive radars. In combination with the moorings that we have deployed at the ice shelf front, this will allow us to directly link changes in ocean temperature to changes in the ice shelf melt rate. The aim of the seismic surveys is to find out how much seawater there is between the floating ice shelf and the bedrock.

Since late 2011, the larger bay where the Larsen B once resided has been covered with a solid sheet of frozen ocean ice, called ‘fast ice’ because it is ‘fastened’ or frozen to the coastline,” Scambos said. “We suspect this ice is supporting the weakened Scar Inlet ice shelf and that the shelf is poised to break up if the thin fast ice breaks away. One good windstorm could set some of this process in motion.”

Sounds like this could be monitored just as easily from home. The article does not provide the Landsat accession number that would make this easier for us. Sentinel 1A radar could make a nice adjunct. I am skeptical that they will be measuring anything out there on the ice under this breakup scenario -- it seems to be more for experiencing the experience. Oh well, it could make for a neat video.

Quote

Scambos said the Scar Inlet ice shelf has been showing signs of increased melting and large-scale fracturing over the past 14 years. The only support holding back more fracturing could be the 6 to 10 feet of frozen ocean in front of it — a thin, fragile crust compared to the ice shelf plate.

“Since late 2011, the larger bay where the Larsen B once resided has been covered with a solid sheet of frozen ocean ice, called ‘fast ice’ because it is ‘fastened’ or frozen to the coastline,” Scambos said. “We suspect this ice is supporting the weakened Scar Inlet ice shelf and that the shelf is poised to break up if the thin fast ice breaks away. One good windstorm could set some of this process in motion.”

“This will be the first time anybody records ground-based data from an ice shelf that is ready to break up,” Truffer said. “The prize, of course, would be to witness the actual break-up, but, even if we miss that, we will have a detailed record of ongoing weakening of the shelf. An unnamed mountaineer from the British Antarctic Survey will help them navigate.”

Penguins of Cape Denison in Antarctica effectively trapped by iceberg the size of Rome and face 120km round trip to feedThere are fears the colony of Adelie penguins will be wiped out in 20 years’ time unless the iceberg moves.There are fears the colony of Adelie penguins will be wiped out in 20 years’ time unless the iceberg moves. Photograph: Alamy

An estimated 150,000 Adelie penguins living in Antarctica have died after an iceberg the size of Rome became grounded near their colony, forcing them to trek 60km to the sea for food.

The penguins of Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay used to live close to a large body of open water. However, in 2010 a colossal iceberg measuring 2900sq km became trapped in the bay, rendering the colony effectively landlocked.Penguins suffering from climate change, scientists sayRead more

Penguins seeking food must now waddle 60km to the coast to fish. Over the years, the arduous journey has had a devastating effect on the size of the colony.

Since 2011 the colony of 160,000 penguins has shrunk to just 10,000, according to research carried out by the Climate Change Research Centre at Australia’s University of New South Wales. Scientists predict the colony will be gone in 20 years unless the sea ice breaks up or the giant iceberg, dubbed B09B, is dislodged.

Penguins have been recorded in the area for more than 100 years. But the outlook for the penguins remaining at Cape Denison is dire.

“The arrival of iceberg B09B in Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctica, and subsequent fast ice expansion has dramatically increased the distance Adélie penguins breeding at Cape Denison must travel in search of food,” said the researchers in an article in Antarctic Science.

“The Cape Denison population could be extirpated within 20 years unless B09B relocates or the now perennial fast ice within the bay breaks out”

“This has provided a natural experiment to investigate the impact of iceberg stranding events and sea ice expansion along the East Antarctic coast.”

In contrast, a colony located just 8km from the coast of Commonwealth Bay is thriving, the researchers said.

The iceberg had apparently been floating close to the coast for 20 years before crashing into a glacier and becoming stuck.

While the linked Dec 2015 article is not exactly news, it does present a long discussion of some of the key issues associated with the risk of rapid ice sheet mass loss in the coming decades/centuries:

Extract: "When I asked Richard Alley, almost certainly the most respected glaciologist in the United States, whether he would be surprised to see Thwaites collapse in his lifetime, he drew a breath. Alley is 58. “Up until very recently, I would have said, ‘Yes, I’d be surprised,’” he told me. “Right now, I’m not sure. I’m still cautiously optimistic that in my life, Thwaites has got enough stability on the ridge where it now sits that I will die before it does. But I’m not confident about that for my kids. And if someday I have grandkids, I’m not at all confident for them.”

Rignot answers the same question more bluntly. “That’s what we’re seeing right now — they are in a state of collapse,” he says. “We’ve never seen it before, so it’s hard to identify it and say, ‘We know exactly what it looks like, and this is what it looks like.’ We’re still in the early stage.”

Rignot predicts that in 30 or 40 years, people will be accustomed to watching Thwaites and Pine Island disintegrate constantly, iceberg by iceberg, into the ocean."

Edit: Personally, I think that Rignot should be the most respected glaciologist in the US.

Logged

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson

Penguins of Cape Denison in Antarctica effectively trapped by iceberg the size of Rome and face 120km round trip to feedThere are fears the colony of Adelie penguins will be wiped out in 20 years’ time unless the iceberg moves.There are fears the colony of Adelie penguins will be wiped out in 20 years’ time unless the iceberg moves. Photograph: Alamy

An estimated 150,000 Adelie penguins living in Antarctica have died after an iceberg the size of Rome became grounded near their colony, forcing them to trek 60km to the sea for food.

The penguins of Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay used to live close to a large body of open water. However, in 2010 a colossal iceberg measuring 2900sq km became trapped in the bay, rendering the colony effectively landlocked.Penguins suffering from climate change, scientists sayRead more

Penguins seeking food must now waddle 60km to the coast to fish. Over the years, the arduous journey has had a devastating effect on the size of the colony.

Since 2011 the colony of 160,000 penguins has shrunk to just 10,000, according to research carried out by the Climate Change Research Centre at Australia’s University of New South Wales. Scientists predict the colony will be gone in 20 years unless the sea ice breaks up or the giant iceberg, dubbed B09B, is dislodged.

Penguins have been recorded in the area for more than 100 years. But the outlook for the penguins remaining at Cape Denison is dire.

“The arrival of iceberg B09B in Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctica, and subsequent fast ice expansion has dramatically increased the distance Adélie penguins breeding at Cape Denison must travel in search of food,” said the researchers in an article in Antarctic Science.

“The Cape Denison population could be extirpated within 20 years unless B09B relocates or the now perennial fast ice within the bay breaks out”

“This has provided a natural experiment to investigate the impact of iceberg stranding events and sea ice expansion along the East Antarctic coast.”

In contrast, a colony located just 8km from the coast of Commonwealth Bay is thriving, the researchers said.

The iceberg had apparently been floating close to the coast for 20 years before crashing into a glacier and becoming stuck.

But it does irk me that we humans bewail inconvenience from ice sheet collapse, while almost entirely ignoring the harm it does and will do to a myriad other live things. We live in vast ecology, and we are burning so, so much of structure beneath our feet, and the obscenity is that _we do not even know_ who or how many we kill.

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Voltaire seemed a bit much for me, but Nietzsche, Byron, Blake and Shelly were more of my thinking. In keeping with the title thread…I recall Shelly's "The Cloud" where every word was intrinsically interwoven with the last and next… it brought to mind the Purkey & Johnson paperAntarctica bottom water…(2013) masterfully written where no word seemed wasted.

"But sir, once faith persuades us of things which appear absurd to our intellect, that is to say, into believing what intellect cannot believe, the danger arises of abandoning reason as a governor of our lives. People in the past said to us: You will believe incomprehensible, contradictory and impossible things because we order it; you must do unjust things because we order you. They had marvellous reasoning. Certainly, he who can make you absurd can make you unjust."

This was, of course, an attack on religion, but Voltaire was nothing if not an acute logician, and touched the heart of the matter in his inimitable style ...

One of the first images from Sentinel-3A’s Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) shows a long crack running through the ice shelf to the east of the centre part of the Antarctic Peninsula. The crack is about 2 km wide, but widens to 4 km or more in some places. There are also finer cracks and structures visible in the ice shelf.

Logged

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Nice Antarctic wide study by Alley (not that one) et al. of basal channel melt under ice shelves, tells where the hot water is in detail. They see polynas associated with some, and one disturbing interpretation of Totten.

" ... one [polynya] was in front of the Totten Ice Shelf, in a region with the highest channel density of any ice shelf region ..."

I was kinda hoping that hot water hadn't yet got there. (I inserted the bracketed word "polynya" in the previous quote.)

The linked article discusses field work about the influence of tides on Antarctic ice shelves in order to develop better ice shelf/ice sheet models. I note that the Nansen Ice Shelf is about to break free:

Extract: "he NASA scientists worked with personnel from the Korea Polar Research Institute to install instruments on the Nansen Ice Shelf, a roughly 30-mile-long ice shelf sticking out from the coast of Antarctica's Victoria Land.

Extract: "Scientists, presenting at the European Geosciences Union in Vienna last week, revealed data that indicates the existence of a canyon system beneath Princess Elizabeth Land on the Eastern coast of the continent. The researchers predict that a large subglacial lake runs through that system.If true, the discovery of the lake could help fill in gaps about one of the most enigmatic areas of Antarctica."

Logged

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson

Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica'...If thinning trends continue, a larger water body over the trough could potentially allow more warm water into the cavity, which may, eventually, lead to destabilization of the low-lying region between Totten Glacier and the similarly deep glacier flowing into the Reynolds Trough. We estimate that at least 3.5 m of eustatic sea level potential drains through Totten Glacier, so coastal processes in this area could have global consequences.'

Another Antarctic glacier, another discovery of a method of rapid destabilisation and subsequent sea level rise and storm intensity consequences. Sigh.

The linked article discusses new research that indicates that the Antarctic Polar Front (see image) is not unbroken and allows seaweed/kelp to float all the way to Antarctica where it can off-load marine species into Antarctic waters where that currently/previously to not exist:

Extract: "Modelling and oceanographic research has started to indicate that the polar front is not the unbroken, continuous barrier was thought to be. Rather, it is a dynamic, shifting series of water jets that can be breached by features such as eddies, which transport pockets of water through the convergence zone.New evidence published this month from observations of floating kelp at sea indicates that drifting marine species can cross the polar front and enter Antarctic waters from the north.…Floating kelps act as the “taxi service” of the sea, forming rafts that can transport diverse species – even entire communities – across hundreds of kilometres of open ocean."

"Floating kelps act as the “taxi service” of the sea, forming rafts that can transport diverse species – even entire communities – across hundreds of kilometres of open ocean."

This I have seen, in a different setting of course. The Gulf Stream with it’s eddies and meanderings form a warm ring which results in unproductive Sargasso Sea water transferred into the productive waters of the continental margin.

In October I’ve seen tropical fish who’s eggs caught in Sargasso kelp drift up against the coast resulting in tropical fish visible within the inlets.

The apex of the Stream lies several hundred miles South East of this location.

That graph is showing the same faulty data from the malfunctioning sensor. This one from Uni Bremen based on AMSR2 shows a slowdown in ice growth, but I don't know where or why it's taking place (I don't think it's exceptional or anything):

"Two propeller-driven planes took off today from Calgary, Canada, on a perilous rescue mission to the U.S. research station at the South Pole. If all goes well, one of the planes will arrive in 6 days to pick up a member of the winter-over crew suffering from an unspecified medical emergency that requires treatment at a hospital.The Twin Otter aircraft are operated by the Canadian firm Kenn Borek Air, Ltd., which contracts with NSF to provide logistical support to the U.S. Antarctic Program. The aircraft will fly via South America to the British Antarctic Survey’s Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula. One will remain there as a backup for search-and-rescue operations; the other will travel another 2400 kilometers to the South Pole."

I think that it is potentially significant (in a few decades time with continued global warming), as it indicates that numerous Antarctic ice shelves may become more fragile in the future due to the cumulative affects of repeated surface ice melt and drainage cycles. I have posted about this in Antarctic Peninsula thread.

Logged

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson

Extract: "In the remote reaches of Antarctica, the South Pole Observatory carbon dioxide observing station cleared 400 ppm on May 23, according to an announcement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wednesday. That’s the first time it’s passed that level in 4 million years (no, that’s not a typo)."

That graph is showing the same faulty data from the malfunctioning sensor. This one from Uni Bremen based on AMSR2 shows a slowdown in ice growth, but I don't know where or why it's taking place (I don't think it's exceptional or anything):

Hi Neven! I live 2600 km of stormy ocean north of Antarctica. I can assure you we have had an unusually mild winter to date. Midnight and its 5 degrees C here, when usually we have a lot of snow and ice around and minus 5, not plus. Fohn winds have melted snow off the tops, and weather forecasts warn of a large sub-topical zone of warm air forming to the west (969hPa in the core) to produce un-seasonally warm weather for the shortest day and beyond.

My bees are still out gathering nectar and pollen when they would usually be safely in bed munching on their honey stores. The vege garden is still lush green when it would 'normally' (aka 'historically') be a rotting down frozen mess.

So if what I see at 46 south is any indication, its just plain getting warmer. Climate, that is, not just weather.

Right now there is a very fine blast of 70 km/h x 6 degC wind heading directly south from the east coast of Australia almost all the way to the coast of Antarctica just west of the Ross Sea. This is blocking the seal level circumpolar wind flow (the Roaring 40s) and must be bring a vast amount of energy south. The following pix from EarthNullSchool show surface, 250hPa (Jetstream) winds and surface temperatures.

I don't recall seeing a block of the Roaring 40s like this before - usually we in southern New Zealand enjoy a constant progression of low pressure then high pressure cyclonic systems which (used to) bring us the routine sequence of calm-warm with fohn wind-gale and rain - calm and cold weather. Not any more!

I wonder what this is doing to the circumpolar current? Everything seems to be conspiring to send it in reverse...

If the circumpolar current slows what does that do to heat transport to the Antarctic glaciers' underbellies? To sea ice formation and longevity?

The conventional thinking is that by itself having the ozone hole heals itself would slow the circumpolar winds around the Southern Ocean; however, increasing GHG concentrations over Antarctica will serve to maintain these winds in the "sweet-spot" that they are currently in for advecting warm CDW toward the grounding lines of key Antarctic marine glaciers. Furthermore, Hansen's ice-climate positive feedback is also kicking in to promote more marine glacial ice melting and lastly the recently observed transmission of NH Tropical Pacific heat across the equator by a Jetstream directed towards the WAIS may eventually accelerate the date when DeConto & Pollard's hydrofracturing occurs in the WAIS (and the Antarctic Peninsula).

The linked Scribbler article indicates that global warming is flattening the atmospheric slope to the extent that Tropical Pacific atmospheric energy is being directed to Western Antarctica via atmospheric gravity waves.

Extract: "The upper level air flow that originated near the North Pole joins with a building Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream ridge pattern over the Southeast Pacific. Feeding into very strong upper level winds, it turns southward into a high amplitude wave that crosses the Horn of South America and slams itself, carrying with it a big pulse of extreme warmth, into the upper level airs over Western Antarctica.

…

All these observations combined point to a very serious concern that Polar warming is flattening the atmospheric slope from Equator to Pole to such an extent that an increasing violation of the Hemisphere to Hemisphere seasonal dividing line may be a new climate change related trend. And that’s a kind of weather weirding that we are not at all really prepared to deal with."

Logged

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson