School board questions low growth projections in North Fulton

‘Whole bunch of space’ available for new homes, says Reeves

NORTH FULTON, Ga. – School system planners are projecting relatively slow growth in enrollment in Fulton County schools over the next five years, but North Fulton school board members caution they may be ignoring signs of an impending boom.“[In the city of Milton], there’s a whole bunch of green space there and [builders] are foaming to get applications in,” said Fulton School Board member Katie Reeves, whose districts covers Alpharetta and Milton. “I’ve seen a rapid increase in the amount of yellow zoning signs in the last two months [throughout my district] and it gives me pause as a board member.”Those sentiments were echoed by Linda McCain, whose Johns Creek district is also seeing an increase in development, particularly in new subdivisions replacing existing, older home sites.“The new developments are high density, with probably 40 homes going in where there used to be 10 homes,” said McCain.Enrollment projections for the next five years show North Fulton adding around 1,000 students over the next five years to its current enrollment of 48,100, mainly in elementary and high school grades. Middle school enrollment is expected to decline slightly over the five-year planning period.Yngrid Huff, director of operational planning for Fulton Schools, noted the system stays in close contact with cities and the county to stay on top of approvals for new subdivisions and housing starts. While planners are aware of applications for rezoning and new construction, the number of students projected to attend schools from those developments is not factored in until the projects are formally approved.But Reeves said that could be too late to plan for an influx in kids, and urged planners to keep a closer eye on large, undeveloped parcels and their future impact on the schools. She also noted planners should consider trends in housing, as homeowners age and sell their homes to new families.“North Fulton is going to turn over and older parents are going to downsize and sell to younger families,” said Reeves. “I’m hoping by next month we come back and see some kind of number that would capture more of a long-range look as well as a short term.”During her presentation to the school board at its March 21 meeting, Huff acknowledged construction has started back up again after bottoming out in 2008, and its effects will be seen throughout the county.“The housing market is rebounding and housing starts are aggressively increasing,” said Huff. “Over the next five years, expect a system growth of over 5,500 students.”In North Fulton, the supply of available homes is at its target of a seven- to eight-month supply; down from nearly two years of supply just a few years ago.Based on five-year projections, Fulton will grow from its current enrollment of 93,820 to 99,300 by the 2017-18 school year, and likely surpass DeKalb County as the third largest school system in the state. By projecting enrollment on a five-year basis, school system planners can determine needs for the coming year, and also create a capital projects plan to determine where growth is occurring and the need for new schools.

Enrollment Projections for North Fulton Schools – 2013-2014 School Year