Right now, you can think of the value of Bitcoin being set in the
same way that the value of an export license might be set through
bids. If/when China fully liberalizes capital flows, the value of
Bitcoin likely will fall. A lot. To the extent the shadow market
value of the yuan rises, and approaches the level of the current
quasi-peg, the value of Bitcoin will fall, by how much is not
clear. Or maybe getting money out through Hong Kong (or Shanghai)
will become easier and again the value of Bitcoin would fall. If
Beijing shuts down BTC China, the main broker, which by the way
accounts for about 1/3 of all Bitcoin transactions in the world,
the value of Bitcoin very likely will fall. A lot. You will recall
that the Chinese government shut down the virtual currency QQ in
2009; admittedly stopping Bitcoin could prove harder but still
they could thwart or limit it.