Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.

Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.

Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval. Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.

Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fireTo me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

Quoting wxchaser97:Hello everyone, Nadine is the gift that keeps giving. I see she has transitioned to a subtropical storm, something I did not think would happen.

How's it going WXchaser97. Its clouded up around here in Detroit...wasn't expecting that...

Here are some things that told me she would become subtropical (quote from a blog post I made this morning)....

"Nadine has actually slightly strengthened in the last 24 hours...which I diagnose is due to supportive divergence directly over Nadine (supplied by east side of paragraph P3 upper trough)...and supportive divergence just NE of Nadine (supplied by east side of upper trough over Nadine which has recently amplfied further into an upper vortex). With Nadine in the last day not showing upper anticyclonic outflow in the 200 mb wind barbs in the above atmo birdseye chart...nor showing cirrus outflow clouds on satellite...this indicates to me a shallower warm core system that is supported by divergence from cold core upper troughs (i.e. a subtropical storm)."

Quoting Neapolitan:We are certainly both entitled to our opinions. But, this being a science-based public forum and all, anyone voluntarily choosing to express an opinion on an issue of science here needs to accept that that opinion may be responded to and, sometimes, challenged. That's how real science gets done.

BTW, I have to ask. You came here to Dr. Masters' forum and posted the following a while ago:

Masters sounds a little dramatic to me.

On the scale of arrogance, where would you rank that comment?

I try to avoid these normally fruitless debates on the subject(changing one from a denier to a believer in the comment section, or vice-versa, doesn't happen that much if at all in any way that measurably matters, imo), but I just have to say that I took it as constructive criticism. I share the thought. I felt the same way. And I do like Jeff's blogs on the subject and he knows how I personally feel about AGW. I did particularly like this blog, but I did come away feeling that there was a difference for sure in the exact wording he used in this blog. More expressive of his concern of the immediecy/urgency of the situation. But in a way that perhaps sounded too dramatic. Constructive criticism...with the thought that the exact wording used may energize the believers but turn off the deniers.

Tropical Storm "LAWIN" has maintained its strength and now threatens the Samar-Bicol Area

At 4:00 AM PhSt, Tropical Storm Lawin (Jelawat) [987 hPa] located at 11.8°N 129.3°E or 380 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Signal Warnings================

Signal Warning #2---------------

Visayas Region===============1. Eastern Samar

Signal Warning #1------------------

Luzon Region=============1. Sorsogon

Visayas Region==============1. Northern Samar2. Western Samar3. Leyte

Additional Information=====================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical storm.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "Lawin".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

Quote from my blog post this morning..." With Nadine in the last day not showing upper anticyclonic outflow in the 200 mb wind barbs in the above atmo birdseye chart...nor showing cirrus outflow clouds on satellite...this indicates to me a shallower warm core system that is supported by divergence from cold core upper troughs (i.e. a subtropical storm). However...I have never heard of a case where the NHC downgrades a tropical cyclone to a subtropical cyclone operationally."

For me...Nadine is the 1st known storm I can find where the NHC operationally downgrades it from tropical to subtropical....

Quoting Matt74:Who died and made you king? It's just my opinion. Does it make me right? No. Just because it's your opinion does it make you right? no. I'm not bashing your opinion. We are both entitled to one aren't we? I am not nearly as knowledgable as you on the subject but if you want people to look at your side of the issue maybe you shouldn't be so arrogant...

We are certainly both entitled to our opinions. But, this being a science-based public forum and all, anyone voluntarily choosing to express an opinion on an issue of science here needs to accept that that opinion may be responded to and, sometimes, challenged. That's how real science gets done.

BTW, I have to ask. You came here to Dr. Masters' forum and posted the following a while ago:

Kyle 2002 is one I can think of in recent years. I think its the 2nd longest lasting for the Atlantic basin....can't remember teh longest lasting

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:Nadine is very tenasious. It may go to Tropical once again soon.

I acutally believe Nadine will recurve south and southwest back into the tropics...the reasoning behind this is in great detail on my blog (don't want to blow up the blog space here with my reasoning)....

Storm in Illinois is beginning to display rotation. There is no active warning...tornado or severe thunderstorm...on the cell right now, but it's safe to say one will probably be issued shortly. We will see more supercells develop throughout the evening.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:Unless Nadine transitions into a fully-tropical storm before it is absorbed once and for all in about five days or so, its final Accumulated Cyclone Energy total is 12.29 units. This puts the storm in 3rd place behind Michael, with 16.5 units, and Leslie, with 14.8 units.

Unless Nadine transitions into a fully-tropical storm before it is absorbed once and for all in about five days or so, its final Accumulated Cyclone Energy total is 12.29 units. This puts the storm in 3rd place behind Michael, with 16.5 units, and Leslie, with 14.8 units.

Quote from my blog post this morning..." With Nadine in the last day not showing upper anticyclonic outflow in the 200 mb wind barbs in the above atmo birdseye chart...nor showing cirrus outflow clouds on satellite...this indicates to me a shallower warm core system that is supported by divergence from cold core upper troughs (i.e. a subtropical storm). However...I have never heard of a case where the NHC downgrades a tropical cyclone to a subtropical cyclone operationally."

For me...Nadine is the 1st known storm I can find where the NHC operationally downgrades it from tropical to subtropical....

892) To take license with Chuck again - Nadine, honey is that still you?

Touching 80 today in S C IL, but supposed to get into upper 30s for lows again Sun & Mon. Highs in the mid 60s - everything is about a month early this year. Peaches ready before August. Corn (what there is of it) almost completely out by mid September, I can't ever rem that before. Weird year to say the least.

Quoting Matt74:Who died and made you king? It's just my opinion. Does it make me right? No. Just because it's your opinion does it make you right? no. I'm not bashing your opinion. We are both entitled to one aren't we? I am not nearly as knowledgable as you on the subject but if you want people to look at your side of the issue maybe you shouldn't be so arrogant...

What, exactly, is the "pro GW agenda"? Are people here actively promoting climate change? Trying to hasten the ice melt? Is global warming a goal to which we all should contribute? Changecasting? Meltcasting?

NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PASTDAY OR SO. WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OFMODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THESTORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTEROF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONSTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY. THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WINDDISTRIBUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINEPOST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TOFIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEITFROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THISTIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ASUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEEDREMAINS 50 KT.

NADINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONESHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS IT IS STEERED BYA TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AFTER THETROUGH MOVES AWAY...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN ACOUPLE DAYS TIME AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT TROUGH IN ABOUT 5DAYS WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THENORTHEAST AND LOSE ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. THE NHCFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS...ECMWF...FIM...ANDFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOUTHWARDTRACK EARLY ON...SMALL CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST...ANDAN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAY 5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY COLD UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THECONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...ALTHOUGH THE WATERS SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME. MOST OF THE MODELGUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A SLIGHTLY WEAKERSYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISNEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWFMODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR NADINE...WHICH COULDFACILITATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE SYSTEMIS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING IF ITDECAYED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME.

"In economics, the tragedy of the commons is the depletion of a shared resource by individuals, acting independently and rationally according to each one's self-interest, despite their understanding that depleting the common resource is contrary to their long-term best interests."

The atmosphere is a shared resource. We have used it to dispose of CO2. We are using up that capacity with dramatic results.

Quoting Neapolitan:One-sided, alright: the correct side. And the rapid climate change we're experiencing is most likely the single largest threat humanity has faced in modern times; if that fact alone isn't dramatic in and of itself, I don't know what is...

Who died and made you king? It's just my opinion. Does it make me right? No. Just because it's your opinion does it make you right? no. I'm not bashing your opinion. We are both entitled to one aren't we? I am not nearly as knowledgable as you on the subject but if you want people to look at your side of the issue maybe you shouldn't be so arrogant...

Quoting kwgirl:I think it is probably too late by now. Besides it is the start of the weekend. The kiddies will be out and about and off the internet, I hope. It is almost quitting time so I am going to say good bye. Have a great weekend everyone. I might stick my head in sometime this weekend, but I have a feeling the blog will be really slow.

I'm out too. Have a great weekend all!

Going to be a beautiful weekend here for me to get all my outdoor projects worked on!

Jim, I just thought it was amusing that you chided me for attacking the scientist when the entire rest of your comment was attacking the scientist. Not the same scientist I was supposedly attacking, but the one I apparently attacked WITH... :>)

Again: the piece you presented was an attack piece from a non-climate scientist on an actual climate scientist. McIntyre--from whose site you embedded that image--holds a BA in mathematics, and he's spent years and thousands of dollars in a fruitless vendetta against Mann. Mann, on the other hand, holds an A.B in applied mathematics and physics, an MS in physics, an MPhil in physics, an MPhil in geology, and a PhD in geology and geophysics. I'm sorry that some can't see the difference between the two...

Quoting luvtogolf:And just like that, it continues. Don't bother to post anything because you will be put down and told that it is a myth, unsubstantiated fact, lie, etc.........

Provide evidence. People who say things like "It's just natural climatic variation", without saying what that natural variation is, don't deserve to be treated with respect. ALL climatic fluctuation has a CAUSE. If you claim that the cause of the current warming is not greenhouse gases, it's up to you to say what is causing it and to provide evidence to back up your claim.

Quoting LostTomorrows:I think Dr. Masters should update his blog on the tenacity of Nadine, and the growing circulation (seriously, it's getting rather large) of 94L before this debate gets too out of hand. 94L is kicking up a good spin, but needs the heavy thunderstorm activity to back him up.

I think it is probably too late by now. Besides it is the start of the weekend. The kiddies will be out and about and off the internet, I hope. It is almost quitting time so I am going to say good bye. Have a great weekend everyone. I might stick my head in sometime this weekend, but I have a feeling the blog will be really slow.

I think Dr. Masters should update his blog on the tenacity of Nadine, and the growing circulation (seriously, it's getting rather large) of 94L before this debate gets too out of hand. 94L is kicking up a good spin, but needs the heavy thunderstorm activity to back him up.