Treve wrote:Yes I think peeptoad mentioned that, but I wonder if that were the case if it would have lasted until Belmont. I know for humans who train and camp at higher altitudes the effect usually wears off pretty quick. It comes up a lot when discussing him, and I think it's mentioned with regards to others every now and then but off the top of my head I can't remember. There was a case here several years back about a woman who was contesting a dq based on increased hemoglobin, she had been sleeping and training at high altitude to naturally increase it, but she was accused of doping even if they couldn't find any substances in her samples. Can't remember how that ended.

If it wears off pretty quickly I think it might not last 5 weeks. Maybe?

This thread has made me realize again how insane Rachel's Preakness was.

For humans I've read bunch of places that it has a widely variable effect, but the avergae length of time the conditioning lasts in humans once they move back to sea level is ~4-12 weeks. Mine that Bird may have won for another reason or combination of reasons; imho the altitude he had been living and training in was one of them. He ran well enough in the Preakness, tailed off in the Belmont but still a good effort, and his subsequent race in the WV Derby was pretty subpar, given the company. Has the appearance of a horse tailing off.... for whatever reason.

Agreed it probably helped. Although I disagree with the Belmont - Borel moved way too early (yes I rewatched the race last night) and completely misjudged the stretch at Belmont. I seem to recall that week he was in NY being interviewed on a bunch of talk shows and didn't get a single mount at the track besides Mine That Bird. That seems to be the undoing of a lot of jockeys who don't run at Belmont regularly. WV Derby was subpar, but it was also after he was moved to Lukas so, probably a combination of factors.

I know that Lukas tends to be a lightning rod for blame in what ails many modern thoroughbreds, but he didn't get Mine That Bird until the horse was four. Whatever happened at three--good and bad--was all with Woolley.

Curtis wrote:I know that Lukas tends to be a lightning rod for blame in what ails many modern thoroughbreds, but he didn't get Mine That Bird until the horse was four. Whatever happened at three--good and bad--was all with Woolley.

My bad, I had just read an article that phrased it in such a manner that made it sound he was given to Lukas after the Belmont. Going back to re-read it, I see that's not what it says, but I guess the choice of words and the timing, was misleading

Som, good point about Rachel's Preakness. Mmmmm. Time to rewatch! Out of curiosity, Tessa, is your formula Derby specific? Or could it be translated to other races? I guess there really is no other race like the Derby.

You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!

Tessablue wrote:You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!

Tessablue wrote:You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!