The green in the SNP white paper

This week, the SNP launched their White Paper on what an independent Scotland would look like. Here, Ric Lander reviews what is says about the environment.

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What does the Independence
White Paper tell us about how the environment would be protected in
an independent Scotland? In one sense, not very much. The SNP's
document is a manifesto for a future election to run a state that
does not yet exist. A lot of the contents is old news, and of what
is new we can rightfully question the SNP's resolve to deliver it.

However this document does
bring together, for the first time, a complete vision of what the
Scottish Government would do with the powers afforded to it by
independence: what it would change, and what it would not.

Naturally the document focuses
on areas of policy which are currently reserved, that is to say they
are not currently within the power of the Scottish Government. This
had led some environmentalists, who note the devolved nature of
environmental regulation, transport policy and climate change
legislation, to consider the referendum debate largely irrelevant.
The White Paper shows this false. In fact sustainability is at the
heart of the debate on Scotland's future and this document shows us
how.

Oil

The White Paper is screaming
about oil, to be specific offshore oil and gas. This is neither
novel or surprising given that including oil and gas revenue from
Scotland's GDP adds £5,853
per person and according to the White Paper “in excess of 90
per cent” of UK oil and gas revenues derive from Scottish waters
(p.31).

The
Scottish Government makes no case for reining in the industry
offering “no plans to increase the overall tax burden on the oil
industry” (p.18). Instead it says its tax regime will “support
and incentivise production” and offer future reforms “that
encourage exploration and help
maximise economic recovery rates” (p.303).

An
example is later given of a Norwegian policy to “reimburse the tax
value of exploration costs for companies not in a tax-paying
position” (p.304).

The purpose of this fresh
production and exploration drive? The White Paper says it will raise
revenue for a sovereign wealth fund which is invested in when prices
are high, cushioning the blow of dwindling reserves and price
volatility.

The
document asks “is
continued oil and gas production consistent with Scotland’s
commitments on climate change?” “Yes.”
it says. Science disagrees. On first principals we can say that as
the world has five times more fossil-fuels than we can
afford to burn and therefore any additional extraction is
incompatible with halting global climate change. As Stuart Rodger
points out in
the Herald we must also wake up to Scotland's numbers: “if 12
billion barrels of North Sea oil were to be burned this would emit
5.2 billion tonnes of CO2, dwarfing domestic efforts [to cut CO2]”.
In other words, Scotland's climate change legislation is pretty
meaningless when you add in the impact of our oil.

The
Scottish Government says it wants to “steward our oil and
gas assets for the benefit of the nation, as well as supporting the
growth of [the] industry”
(p.301). It also wants to be a world leader on climate change. The
problem with this approach is that sustainability and stewardship,
require a sovereign wealth fund and a gradual winding down of the
industry. Yet these tasks are directly at odds with the policies
which seek to maximise output and create a new drive for exploration.

There
is no other mention of other kinds of energy extraction in the body
of the document. The word “coal” is not mentioned and onshore
oil and gas is only discussed in the appendices.

What
the document does say of onshore gas and fracking simply reinforces
the Scottish Government current policy position: it is neither
welcomed or rejected, and the updated planning policy (which includes
proposed “buffer zones”) is referenced (p.513-514). Anti-extreme
energy campaigners fighting new extraction from coal bed methane and
fracking may be reassured that at least the Scottish Government
hasn't attempted to sideline the issue.

Electricity
generation

Renewable
generation of electricity, a headline SNP policy for some years, gets
a lot of air time in the White Paper.

The
document reaffirms the target of 100 per cent of electricity demand
to be met by renewables by 2020, and a “2030 electricity
decarbonisation target to achieve a carbon intensity of 50g CO2/kWh
of electricity generation in Scotland.” (p.518) The caveat here
of course being that you can meet domestic demand with renewables
without turning off your coal-fired power stations: you just sell the
high-carbon electricity to England. This is the SNP's plan and they
have gone some way to achieving it under their current devolution
settlement.

The
same big energy companies that are hoovering up our rising domestic
bills are also the primary beneficiaries of this policy, something
that local anti-wind farm campaigners have not been slow to pick up
on.

As
a response the Scottish Government makes its case that it is
supporting community ownership by helping them to acquire assets and
land (p.290) and by “developing new models of community ownership”
for energy generation” (p.295).

Unfortunately
any detail is lacking. Wind and tidal get a mention (p.57) but solar
power, touted as an excellent solution for water
heating in Scotland, appears nowhere, and district heating is
also not discussed.

What
of our coal and nuclear stations?

The
White Paper reminds us that the “Scottish Government is opposed to
the building of any new nuclear power stations in Scotland and will
phase out existing stations in Scotland over time” (p.514).

As
for coal and gas: “it is likely there will be a need to maintain
and build new power stations run on traditional fossil fuels. The
scheduled closure of existing power plants, and the construction of a
minimum of 2.5 GW of new or replacement efficient fossil fuel
electricity generation plants progressively fitted with carbon
capture and storage , will satisfy security of supply concerns and,
together with renewable energy, deliver large amounts of electricity
exports” (p.515-516). Good news for the energy industry. Not so
great for our environment.

Problems
associated with this approach are apologised for with a proposal to
roll out “carbon capture and storage” (CCS). Although they state
that “only independence provides Scotland with the autonomy to make
the necessary strategic investments that will support the growth of
CCS” (p.302) we should be sceptical, since CCS trials have failed
in Scotland in very recent memory and many criticisms of the
technology remain unanswered regarding emissions from coal mining
and CO2 storage.

Fuel
poverty and energy efficiency

Heating
and electric supply is couched in terms of keeping prices down in the
document, which is not surprising given the current political climate
and rising domestic bills.

The
document outlines an intention to eradicate fuel poverty although the
only measures proposed is that currently being discussed at
Westminster to fund green levies such as the Energy Company
Obligation and Warm Homes Discount from central government funds
(p.18 , p.298). Other programmes such as the much criticised “Green
Deal” are to be supported, as is the Renewable Heat Incentive
(p.519).

There
is little ambition shown about how the Scottish Government would use
its new powers to reduce fuel poverty and improve energy efficiency.

Climate
change targets

Where
does all of this leave Scotland's climate change targets? The
Scottish Government is confident that “the world-leading climate
change legislation”, with its target of a 42% reduction by 2020,
“demonstrates Scotland’s progressive approach to the protection
of the environment” and “ground-breaking work championing Climate
Justice, including setting up the world’s first Climate Justice
Fund” (p.291) which will allow it to “champion tackling climate
change in international forums including the UN and the EU” (p.17).

There
is a strong argument that an independent Scotland would have a louder
voice on the world stage but this may be more important than is
immediately apparent. A returning delegate from last week's
disastrous UN climate talks in Warsaw told me that Climate Minister
Paul Wheelhouse's attempts to showcase Scotland's efforts were
significantly hampered by the UK Government delegation who resisted
giving the Scottish Government air time.

Transport

Reducing
the price of air travel features throughout the White Paper. The
policy, to “reduce APD [air passenger duty] by 50 per cent in the
first term of the independent parliament, with a view to abolishing
it when public finances allow” (p.98), is designed to increase
tourism and international trade. The document complains that “APD
in the UK is now the highest tax of its type anywhere in the world”
(p.98) and that cutting it will allow more direct routes from
Scottish airports (p.119).

The
Government fails to mention the role of APD tax in reducing carbon
emissions. This is ironic given the Scottish Government's
progressive approach in including aviation emissions in its
aforementioned “ground-breaking” carbon targets.

For
rail travel, the document is open minded. Stating opportunities for
“ different ownership models for the rail network” (p.25)
including “public-supported and not-for-profit models” (p.127).
Possibilities for renationalisation should be welcomed by campaigners
seeking to see private car use replaced by the use of public
transport.

There
is also some talk of high speed rail in Scotland, although nothing in
the way of a specific proposal, other than re-emphasising the
Scottish Governments frustration that High Speed 2 is not planned to
reach Scottish cities (p.128).

For
road travel no fuel duty change is proposed but the document does
suggests introducing a “Fuel Duty Regulator” to stabilise petrol
prices, something which by itself would be expected to increase car
use (p.129).

Currently
devolved elements such as road building and so called “active
travel” (cycling and walking) are not covered in the document,
which is perhaps surprising given the Scottish Government's
enthusiasm for the former and enthusiasm for talking about the later.
There is also no discussion of the reform of local public transport.

Despite
a planned increase in air travel the document is optimistic that
carbon cuts can be achieved with rail
electrification, electric vehicles, expansion of renewable energy
generation, and smart grid technology “achiev[ing] the almost
complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050” (p.127).
This target has been singled out as an exciting new
pro-environmental policy, but it should be noted that although it
sounds ambitious it is in fact necessitated by Scotland's
pre-existing 80%+ carbon cut target for 2050.

Industry
and business

The
Scottish Government wants to cut tax and regulation on business,
outlining “a clear timetable for reducing corporation tax by up to
three percentage points” (p.06) and a simplified tax system “to
reduce compliance costs” (p.08). There is also talk of “expanding
our manufacturing base” (p.98).

We
shouldn't be under any illusions about the impact of current Scottish
consumption, which currently exports most of our environmental
impact. In this light an increase in manufacturing could contribute
to a more sustainable economy: but we should take a sceptical view of
the ability of already devolved Scottish Environmental Protection
Agency (SEPA) to control the impact of any new manufacturing boom,
especially if the invitation to foreign investment is to come to a
low tax and low regulation Scotland.

Nuclear
weapons

“We
would make early agreement on the speediest safe removal of nuclear
weapons a priority.” (p.14)

The
White Paper proudly references at almost all opportunities the pledge
to remove Trident from Scotland post-independence.
This is great news not as a sanctimonious stance but because,
according to very convincing
research by CND, there is a very high chance this force
the UK to unilaterally disarm.

However
critical questions remain over the SNP's dedication to this cause
including an apparent “softening” of their stance regarding
admitting ships carrying nuclear weapons into Scottish territorial
waters (this is excellently reviewed by Nicholas Watt and Severin
Carrell in
today's Guardian.

Sea
life

Wildlife
protection is currently devolved, but fisheries negotiation, which
takes place at an EU level, is not. The document pledges to “keep
the Scottish quota in Scotland” (p.17) and to “safeguard the
future of Scotland’s fishing communities and seafood sectors” by
preventing any reduction in quotas (p.282).

This
approach may go down well in fishing communities but is considerably
at odds with the ecological reality of ailing fish stocks and
devastated marine life in Scotland's waters.

Harmonisation

As
well as making commitments on specific policy areas the White Paper
has a number of provisions for improving policy harmonisation and
governance.

Most
conspicuous is a pledge to “seek to enshrine environmental
protection in the constitution” (p.293) which could provide a
myriad of opportunities for campaigners, for example those seeking to
enforce the Aarhus Convention in Scotland to give communities better
access to environmental justice, sorely lacking in the infamous Trump
vs. Menie saga.

Finally
the International Development chapter (p.231) outlines a “Do
No Harm” policy which will “ensure that other Scottish Government
policies do no harm to developing countries, do not undermine
international development aims and ideally contribute to
international development success”. Such a rigorous approach, if
taken seriously, would open doors for people to challenge Government
activity which promotes unsustainable Scottish industry abroad; the
impact of Government-owned assets and investments (e.g. RBS); and
would provide an additional policy lever for action on climate
change.

Verdict

The White Paper's greatest
value is not to answer all possible questions: the outcome of any
election is uncertain and a referendum is no different. What it does
do is highlight the kinds of choices open to Scots which are
currently out of their reach reserved by Westminster.

It
also tells us the SNP's priorities. For example we should infer
something from the fact that the phrase “sustainable economic
growth” appears 15 times in the document. In it's “Referendum
Challenge” the umbrella body of Scotland's environmental
organisations told the Yes and No campaigns it's
first priority for securing Scotland's future was to ensure “we
measure the success of our society
intelligently”.
The White Paper is clearly far off this. Economic growth, foreign
direct investment and North Sea oil run through the whole document.

On the other hand their
anti-nuclear intentions, albeit incomplete, alongside their
renewables investment drive and new focuses on policy coherence are
to be welcomed.

Aside from specific policy
commitments the most encouraging thing about this document is the
evidence, peppered throughout, of the impact on the document of
democratic campaigning. Already on OurKingdom we have heard
about Jubilee Scotland's impact on the document. We can also see
the stamp of extreme energy campaigners not to mention the constant
re-emphasis of the 42% carbon cut target, the great success of the
Stop Climate Chaos Scotland coalition. Many things which we might
feel are lacking, such as reining in of North Sea oil, are simply not
things civil society has been talking about.

Ultimately
the credibility of this White Paper would be best judged if we had
anything to compare it to. Of course we will not receive manifestos
for governing an independent Scotland from Labour until after a Yes
vote, but what is the Better
Together plan for
environmental protection? So far the only other substantial
contribution to the discussion has come
from the Scottish Greens.

In both its failings and its
strength the White Paper shows where the battlegrounds would be for
making an independent Scotland a sustainable country. There are
still many challenges to the Yes campaign to see the SNP meet their
ambitions for a greener Scotland. The question is now to discover if
a continuing United Kingdom can respond to these same challenges and
show a better path for a green society in these islands.

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