Rob Oller commentary: Diebler, Lighty could find niches

Thursday

Jun 30, 2011 at 12:01 AMJun 30, 2011 at 9:55 AM

In a satisfying scenario, three-point specialist Jon Diebler launches a potential winning shot just as defensive stopper David Lighty sticks a hand in his former teammate's face - five years from now in the NBA.

In a satisfying scenario, three-point specialist Jon Diebler launches a potential winning shot just as defensive stopper David Lighty sticks a hand in his former teammate's face - five years from now in the NBA.

The timing is important, because if Diebler and Lighty are on the same court in the 2015-16 season, it will mean that both have found a home in the NBA and that neither will have to hear, "Well, at least they were great Buckeyes."

But reality has a different ring. Based on the numbers, it is doubtful that both Diebler and Lighty will be successful NBA players - defined as reaching the average of 4.8 seasons in the league. It is no given that either former Ohio State player will make it. A 20-year look at second-round draft picks (1998-2008) shows that 34.5 percent never play in the NBA. That number jumps to 50 percent for the 51st overall pick, which is where Portland selected Diebler. Lighty went undrafted. Gulp.

That is the bad news. The good news is that both players possess specialized talents that could fit well with the "role" mentality that defines the NBA, where a player does not have to be good at everything as long as he is great at something.

Diebler is a great shooter. Lighty, who has attended two free-agent workouts - with Atlanta and Phoenix - was a great defender in college, and at times a decent three-point shooter.

Which of the two recently graduated Buckeyes will become the better pro? It might well be Lighty, not only because he has more tools at his disposal - defender, decent shooter, strong at the rim - but also because, as a free agent, he can choose the situation that best fits his game. Diebler is locked into Portland, where reports have the Blazers toying with the idea of sending the rookie overseas for a year to fine-tune his game. Not a bad idea, considering the threat of a prolonged NBA work stoppage that could wipe out much of next season.

ESPN college-basketball analyst Jay Bilas is sharper than most talking heads. He is not prone to making outlandish predictions or sensationalizing any situation, so I asked him whether Lighty or Diebler possesses more NBA upside.

"It's a hard question to answer, because a lot of it has to do with fit," Bilas said. "I don't see either one becoming an NBA All-Star, but I think Lighty is the better overall prospect. He can do so many things. Thad (Matta) was going to play him at the point. The kid is a winner."

Diebler has a more-singular talent, but on the right team, his three-point shooting could keep him in the league for a long time, Bilas said.

"Put Jon with a big guy who gets a lot of double teams, and he could be very effective," Bilas said. "He's got a special skill that the NBA would value."

Bilas usually avoids playing the "What other NBA player does he remind me of?" game, but he tossed out several names regarding Lighty (Bruce Bowen) and Diebler (Kyle Korver).

Bowen went undrafted in 1993 and played two years overseas before reaching the NBA, where five times in 13 seasons he was named to the All-NBA Defensive Team.

"Lighty is a better shooter than Bowen was coming out of college," Bilas said. "It was later that Bruce became a guy who could hit the open shot."

Lighty, at 6 feet 6, is nearly 2 inches shorter than Bowen, and he lacks the lateral quickness that made Bowen an especially lethal lockdown defender, but his defensive DNA still impressed Atlanta coach Larry Drew, who this week called Lighty a "gutsy defender ... who would be a plus to have on this team."

Diebler is drawing comparisons to Korver, the Chicago Bulls' shooting specialist who holds the NBA record for highest three-point shooting percentage in a season (.536). If Jon "Threebler" can come even close to that, he definitely will stick around long enough to attempt more than a few winning shots.

It would be doubly nice if Lighty were there to defend them.

Rob Oller is a sports reporter for The Dispatch.

roller@dispatch.com

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