Sun, Oct 13

6:30 AM Pacific

Game Analysis

With Cam Newton out of the picture the Panthers offense revolves around Christian McCaffrey – and the third-year running back is certainly delivering. The offensive line hasn’t been great but Carolina’s ground game ranks around the league-average mainly because McCaffrey is forcing 0.25 missed tackles per rush (3rd). However, there is likely some regression coming as McCaffrey averaged a more modest 0.14 avoided tackles per rush coming into this year and I expect the Panthers running attack to slow down this week versus a Buccaneers rush defense that is ranked 7th and led by William Gholston, who ranks 6th among interior defenders with an 11.4% run stop rate. McCaffrey has added 18.7 points in the receiving game, most among running backs, but his success is unlikely to continue given that Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing only 4.8 yards per target to opposing running backs (5th). The Panthers will need Kyle Allen to step up with McCaffrey limited, but he will be under fire all afternoon. Left tackle Daryl Williams has surrendered a league-high 6 sacks and has no chance of staying in front of Shaquil Barrett, who ranks 3rd among edge defenders with a 30% pass rush win rate.

The Buccaneers have offensive line issues of their own. Right guard Alex Cappa broke his arm and a hamstring injury will sideline right tackle Demar Dotson, who ranked 4th in pass block efficiency last season. Mario Addison and Brian Burns both rank in the top 15 in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders and the pair will wreak havoc against backup right tackle Josh Wells and left tackle Donovan Smith, who ranks 11th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Meanwhile, Gerald McCoy ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and the 6-time Pro Bowler should take advantage of the absence of Cappa on the inside. Jameis Winston will need to get the ball out quickly to Chris Godwin, who is gaining 2.71 yards per route run in the slot (1st).

This game is being played in London on the early 9:30 am EST start time. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has an excellent front 7 poised to shut down Christian McCaffrey and subsequently Carolina’s offense. The Buccaneers have cluster injuries on the right side of the offensive line that could cause Jameis Winston problems. Our model makes the Panthers a 1-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.4. The macthups favor the under and there’s potential for rain in the forecast, which would slow the game down. I’ll lean Under and would lean with Tampa Bay if the line gets up to +3 points.