Another honest premier falls on ICAC's sword

Premier Barry O'Farrell had been cruising to victory and a second term, but that was before "Grangegate" rushed the NSW Liberals into an urgent rebranding exercise, writes Alex Mitchell.

In 1988, after his stunning NSW election victory, Liberal premier Nick Greiner unveiled his plan for an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) to expose graft and larceny in the public sector.

The corridors of NSW Parliament, aka The Bearpit, swirled with rumours that the initial targets would be senior cabinet ministers in the former Labor government of premier Neville Wran.

The huge irony is that the first major scalp was none other than Premier Greiner himself; and today another Liberal premier, Barry O'Farrell, has been forced from office by ICAC.

Both premiers have impeccably honest records. Mr Greiner was later vindicated by a NSW Supreme Court ruling while judgment on Mr O'Farrell will have to wait for the final report on ICAC's Operation Credo-Spicer in mid-year.

With a state election due on March 26 next year, Premier O'Farrell, aka "Fatty O'Barrell", was cruising to victory and a second term. Now the NSW Liberal Party is plunged into a hunt for a successor and a reorganisation of its front ranks.

Mr O'Farrell's personal choice was the very able Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian but she lacks party room numbers.

The Liberals are mindful of the electorate's response to prime minister Julia Gillard, NSW premier Kristina Keneally, Queensland premier Anna Bligh and Tasmanian premier Lara Giddings and they are unlikely to risk promoting a female leader so close to an election.

The stand-out candidate is Treasurer Mike Baird, son of former NSW and Federal MP Bruce Baird and brother of Julia Baird from ABC TV's The Drum.

Mr Baird, MP for the beachfront seat of Manly, has the advantage of enjoying cross-factional support in the chronically divided NSW Liberal Party. The 44-year-old former merchant banker is approved by the right but also enjoys guarded support from many "wets" as well.

If he reorganises the cabinet by promoting fresh talent from his ample backbench, Mr Baird will attempt to bury Mr O'Farrell's "Grangegate" (a gift of a $2,978 bottle of 1959 Penfolds Grange which he told ICAC on Tuesday that he never received) and rebrand the Coalition.

The NSW Labor Party believes the exit of Mr O'Farrell will boost its chances of an electoral comeback in 10 months' time.

On the face of it, this seems to be very wishful thinking. Labor has only 21 of the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and on current polling it stands to win back about 10.

Opposition Leader John Robertson, former head of Unions NSW, has deep-rooted difficulty connecting with voters and selling Labor's message (whatever it is this week!). Against the young and energetic Mr Baird, "Robbo" will run a dismal second.

With Mr O'Farrell's abrupt exit, the NSW Parliament is demonstrating once again that it is Australia's most reliably exciting Comedy House.