Aviation

Aviation

Commercial aviation accounts for about 2% of global carbon emissions, and about 12% of all CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. But CO2 emissions from commercial aircraft are on a pace to triple by 2050, as both passenger air travel and air freight surge worldwide, and aviation’s share of transportation-sector emissions is ballooning as cars and trucks become more fuel efficient. No serious attempt to face the problem of climate change can fail to address commercial aviation. And carbon emissions are not the only environmental challenge posed by a growing aviation sector. Nitrogen oxides, particulates, noise, and lead pollution also impact often disadvantaged communities living near airports.

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About the program

Commercial aviation accounts for about 2% of global carbon emissions, and about 12% of all CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. But CO2 emissions from commercial aircraft are on a pace to triple by 2050, as both passenger air travel and air freight surge worldwide, and aviation’s share of transportation-sector emissions is ballooning as cars and trucks become more fuel efficient. No serious attempt to face the problem of climate change can fail to address commercial aviation. And carbon emissions are not the only environmental challenge posed by a growing aviation sector. Nitrogen oxides, particulates, noise, and lead pollution also impact often disadvantaged communities living near airports.

Aviation is a major contributor to climate pollution, accounting for about 2.5% of global CO2 emissions—30% of which is attributable to US aircraft alone. And aviation's share of global carbon emissions is growing: the Federal Aviation Administration projects that aviation activity will increase 2% to 3% annually through 2037.

“With airline profits surging, we need to explore environmental and consumer protections if the U.S. is going to cap aviation carbon emissions from 2020 as it has committed to do,” said Dan Rutherford, ICCT’s aviation program director and co-author of the paper. In 2015, the U.S. government set an aspirational goal of capping CO2 emissions from U.S. commercial carriers at 2005 levels from 2020.

Recent publications

Compares the fuel efficiency of 20 airlines operating nonstop flights between the mainland United States and East Asia and Oceania and extends the previous transatlantic fuel efficiency methodology to the transpacific market.

A sharp increase in revenue passenger miles drove both profits and fuel consumption on domestic operations up between 2014 and 2016 for U.S. airlines. Alaska Airlines again ranked first in overall fuel-efficiency, while the gap between it and the least fuel-efficient carrier, Virgin America in 2016, widened slightly to 26%.

Staff blog

Bombardier's new aircraft is mired in trade disputes, and that's creating some uncertainty over Delta Air Lines' order for 75 CS100 planes. But if Delta keeps its eye on the fuel savings it will reap—and remembers that the clean-sheet design CSeries is going to easily meet the ICAO CO2 standard—it will buy those aircraft, and more.

Next year, EPA has the chance to propose an ambitious GHG standard for aircraft to promote low carbon aviation. It alluded to the possibility of going further than the UN’s weak recommendations in the 2016 endangerment finding, where it argued that it would set aircraft standards “at least as stringent as ICAO’s.” Here’s hoping that EPA agrees with Boeing, GE, and, yes, ICCT and goes further than ICAO’s least common denominator standard.

One of the key challenges faced by engine and airframe manufacturers in developing fuel-efficient products is the looming risk that their significant investment will not pay off. The more this risk is lowered, the better the chance that we will see a much-needed improvement of aircraft fuel efficiency. In this final post of the series, we explore ways to lower the risk faced by these risk-averse industry players.