tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post3219468468684075442..comments2014-09-16T17:14:40.095-04:00Comments on Dan Shanoff: Thursday 02/14 A.M. Quickie:Valentines, Clemens, Kidd, Sampson, MoreDan Shanoffnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-60986566636274825142008-02-14T16:14:00.000-05:002008-02-14T16:14:00.000-05:00I agree with most of what Natsfan and Dan Shanoff ...I agree with most of what Natsfan and Dan Shanoff have both said. <BR/><BR/>I do agree that the NBA is acting irrationally. What exactly does 1 year accomplish? Are you really that much more mature? Are you that much stronger? I am in complete disagreement with the rule. There will be busts and surprises from seniors, juniors, sophomores, and freshman. <BR/><BR/>Everyone of these high schoolers are 18 or turning 18 very soon. They should be allowed to make their own decisions. <BR/><BR/>I just disagree with the fact that Monta Ellis is an example of this. I agree that he is better off now because of his 2 year experience in the NBA, but if he played one year of college, got drafted in the top half of the first round got a year of experience, he would be nearly as far in his development, but he would also be more secure financially.<BR/><BR/>Monta Ellis among others is a success story the same way Kwame Brown among others is a failure story.<BR/><BR/>One of the major reasons Ellis was labeled "untouchable" is because of his insanely low contract. BTW, I guarantee "untouchable" doesn't literally mean untouchable. Put LeBron, Kobe, D-Ho on the table and I am sure they would be willing to deal. Just a point. I realize that wouldn't happen.Precourthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13128335172041536732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-48014567995536638212008-02-14T13:54:00.000-05:002008-02-14T13:54:00.000-05:00Sorry -- one last point, if a player had several m...Sorry -- one last point, if a player had several modest years before finding success, then why does that statistic support the prep to pro? Shouldn't a player who doesn't get good until his 4th or 5th year compare against players who played 3-4 years of college basketball? So that's not success, if you ask me. And, the NBA wouldn't have to pay the development costs for a rookie with 4 years of college the way it did for a 5th year pro.Natsfan74http://www.blogger.com/profile/02774593132826810650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-53772556895584799162008-02-14T13:52:00.000-05:002008-02-14T13:52:00.000-05:00I don't know how you can call the success rate ins...I don't know how you can call the success rate insanely high. I would argue there are some insanely successful players (Lebron, KG, Kobe), but that's such a low percentage it isn't worth even arguing.<BR/><BR/>In 2005, 14 HS players declared themselves eligible for the draft. 3 pulled out later, so 11 were available on draft day. Of that group, 3 were first round picks, and 5 second round picks. <BR/><BR/>So of that pool of 8 (#6. Martell Webster, 10. Andrew Bynum, 18. Gerald Green, 34. CJ Miles, 40. Monta Ellis, 45. Louis Williams, 49. Andray Blatch, 56. Amir Johnson), none were on the All-Rookie team or played in the rookie all-star game. Only 2 played on the Sophomore All-Star team. And this year only 4 average in double figures in points. So Monta Ellis has been successful, but I don't see a lot of star power on those other 7. <BR/><BR/>Monta Ellis is a success story. But as the #40 pick, I don't think anyone really expected that of him. Of the 14 players who did enter the draft, 2 are playing all-star quality basketball right now, so even that 14% isn't insanely successful. <BR/><BR/>But I do not think rules are made for the exceptions. Monta may be an exception but that rule is there to protect those other 12 players. Maybe the 5 2nd round picks would have been first round picks. Maybe those 3 undrafted players would now be on NBA rosters (instead of in jail or playing overseas as they are now). MaybeNatsfan74http://www.blogger.com/profile/02774593132826810650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-23457689661910983132008-02-14T12:56:00.000-05:002008-02-14T12:56:00.000-05:00It's impossible for you to argue that, given the i...It's impossible for you to argue that, given the insanely high success rate for prep-to-pro players (most of whom had modest first years in the NBA, as expected...hell, some had several modest years).<BR/><BR/>You THINK that 40 mpg (it's closer to 30 btw) in college is somehow more valuable than 10 mpg in the NBA, but how is playing in college in a system not necessarily geared (in fact, often NOT geared) to develop a player for the NBA better than being surrounded by NBA coaches with a vested (and economic) interest in your development? See: THAT makes more sense, intuitively, than what you're suggesting, which is irrationality at its best.<BR/><BR/>All I'm saying is that given the historic success of prep-to-pro players, the NBA is acting irrationally. They would argue that they are doing the kids a favor by forcing them to go to college, but that's just p.r. spin on a ridiculous paternalist attitude.<BR/><BR/>BTW, Ellis was the only player -- the ONLY player -- on the Warriors roster who was deemed "untouchable" in trade discussions with other teams. And that was in Year 2.DanShanoff.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08126386161198401693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-14829959671407603442008-02-14T12:31:00.000-05:002008-02-14T12:31:00.000-05:00Monta Ellis was the #40 pick in the draft. So tea...Monta Ellis was the #40 pick in the draft. So teams did not have much faith in him as a prep to pro 3 years ago. The tenth pick of the second round is hardly an exceptional talent. And, in 3 season (counting this one) he will make a combined $1.883M (with only $770K this year). <BR/><BR/>When he was drafted, the top 7 picks of that draft all made more money than that in their first season. The last pick from that first round has made $2.3M so far in his career. <BR/><BR/>This year, the #9 pick of the draft was guaranteed $1.779M. So he could have played 2 years of college and come out basically where he is now.<BR/><BR/>So, Monta Ellis cost himself money by jumping straight into the pros instead of electing to try 1-2 years of college ball. And, he was not very good as a rookie. He was the most improved last year, but what if he had been Rookie of the Year last year instead? And this year, he is a 3rd year pro, so let's compare his numbers in year 3 to Carmello Anthony, Dwayne Wade, whoever you want... Monta Ellis screwed himself by going pro as early as he did. And I will not buy the development argument. Playing 40 minutes a game and being able to dominate (and expected to dominate) is as good for development as playing 18 minutes per game and scoring under 7 at the next level.Natsfan74http://www.blogger.com/profile/02774593132826810650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-64065059151144992322008-02-14T11:09:00.000-05:002008-02-14T11:09:00.000-05:00Disagree: I'm saying that Monta Ellis is a better ...Disagree: I'm saying that Monta Ellis is a better NBA player in Year 3 (and beyond) for having had 2 years of experience in the NBA, rather than college.<BR/><BR/>For exceptional talents (and I'm not even sure Ellis was considered exceptional, like a LeBron or KG or Dwight Howard), NBA experience is a much better preparation for the NBA than college experience.<BR/><BR/>And to deny that some players aren't ready for the NBA right out of high school -- or that on-the-job pro training isn't better than college training -- is not only ludicrous, but counter to the NBA's best interests.DanShanoff.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08126386161198401693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-74610060390805219182008-02-14T10:54:00.000-05:002008-02-14T10:54:00.000-05:00Yet again your head is buried deep. The NBA's ban ...Yet again your head is buried deep. The NBA's ban only applies to the first year out of high school. This is Monta's 3rd year out of high school. So it is more like a sophomore leaving college to play in the NBA, than a high schooler straight out of high school.<BR/><BR/>Monta's first year stats. 6.8ppg 2.1rpg 1.6apg in 18.1 minutes. Not exactly stellar. I guess Kobe's stats this year are also evidence that the NBA's ban on high schoolers is ludicrous.<BR/><BR/>By the way, I completely disagree with rule, but saying that Monta Ellis' 3rd year prouduction is proof that it is ludicrous, is more ludicrous than the rule itself.Precourthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13128335172041536732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33624629.post-77235990475568493342008-02-14T09:39:00.000-05:002008-02-14T09:39:00.000-05:00I'm not sure who came away looking worse yesterday...I'm not sure who came away looking worse yesterday, but if I had to vote I'd probably say the Republican party. They were a friggin joke. Apparently all the ass kissing, picture taking, autograph signing and (more than likely) campaign donating the couple days before the hearing worked somewhat for Clemens. I'm almost tempted to move to Indiana just so in the next election I can vote for whoever runs against Dan Burton.<BR/><BR/>Apparently you don't love that Ray Allen is replacing Caron Butler in the ASG, because you didn't mention that.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12970830214681576162noreply@blogger.com