The aftereffects in Alberta of the Nov. 26 Calgary-Centre federal byelection, carried off by Conservative Joan Crockatt with just 37 per cent of the vote, have officially become super hilarious. The reader will recall that the two main challengers for a Conservative seat in a relatively liberal-friendly part of Calgary were the capital-L Liberal Harvey Locke, who has spent decades as a top wilderness preservation advocate and all-around Nature Boy, and the Green Party’s Chris Turner, an urbanist author and magazine writer who uses the word “sustainable” with a frequency best characterized as “intolerable”. In short, the two parties both nominated professional environmentalists, neither of whom have done a whole lot else with their lives. We could all probably have anticipated a problem here.

How does a Green candidate run against a Harvey Locke? Turner was shrewd and cynical enough to find an answer: berate the older guy as an out-of-touch Seventies green who, as Locke had admitted in an interview, didn’t even move to Calgary from Banff until it looked like there might be a Commons seat available amid Cowtown’s dark Sanatic mills. (Asked by your correspondent if she approved of this campaigning style, Elizabeth May observed that the GPC is not one of those old-fashioned “top-down parties” in which the leader orders candidates about.) Locke, for his part, spluttered that his young rival was a “twerp”.

The twerp got about 7,000 votes, the old hippie got 9,000, and Crockatt, who did as little as humanly possible to distract the populace from any of this by appearing in public or uttering a sound, got 10,000. First past the post wins. (Although, to be honest with you, I have never really understood why that is our metaphor for “Most votes wins, even without a majority”. What does racing past a post have to do with it?)

The center/center-left in this province will not form government until we are in one big-tent party. At this moment in time, and objectively looking at the provincial platforms of the progressive parties, we are for all intents and purposes also a distinction without a difference.

In the last election the NDP, Liberals, Greens and Alberta Party agreed on policy 95 per cent of the time. We should all be together in one big tent; there is less difference between all of our political parties than there is between the different wings of the PC government.

This online op-ed caused the president of Hehr’s own party to blow his stack to smithereens. Todd Van Vliet issued a press release that positioned the Liberals as a distinct, individual-oriented alternative to the New Democratic “party of labour, unions, and social justice” and didn’t mention the Greens at all. Not content to stop there, he put forth some pretty astonishing insinuations about Hehr’s motives.

…While Mr. Hehr may be working in good faith to create a stronger alternative to the PCs, working to eliminate one’s own party would not seem to be the best way to do that.

…So what’s actually going on with Kent Hehr and his advisers? Well, the idea of a merger certainly isn’t news. It has been raised at the last NDP annual general meeting and dismissed, and raised again at the last Alberta Liberal board meeting, and again dismissed. So who does this “merger” actually benefit? One would have to say, the PCs.

He’s just sayin’! As a signal of his wholehearted embrace of the “dude are you even listening to the words coming out of your mouth” mode of rhetoric, Van Vliet warns that “Without the Liberals to balance the centre, the PCs gain a real possibility of staying in power for decades longer.” We need the Alberta Liberals to prevent the PCs from staying in power for decades? Golly, surely this is a bit like putting on granite swim-fins?

Van Vliet’s impatience is understandable, even if his rage isn’t. The Alberta Liberals passed through a short phase of merger discussions under their previous leader, the lugubrious peacenik Dr. David Swann, who is the previous leader and not the current one partly because he was so open to the idea. These “discussions” took the form of the Liberals discussing a merger and the New Democrats saying “Get bent, capitalist lackeys” over and over. When the Liberals proceeded to get rid of their fed-up physician and replace him with another fed-up physician, Dr. Raj Sherman, the resulting vote split in the 2012 general election was so clean and even that Joan Crockatt can only dream of such rapturous math: Liberals 127,645, NDP 126,752.

In view of this, partisans who regard continued PC government as an emergency are obviously right to consider a merger. They are equally obviously wrong to imagine it would get them anywhere in the total absence of a credible leader to rally behind. Ed Stelmach obliterated these parties in his one electoral trial, and, bad news, fellas, you’re not up against Ed Stelmach anymore. Hehr wants Liberals, New Democrats, Greens, Alberta Party hipsters, and presumably the Marxist-Leninists to “put down their guns” and unite in the hope of maybe, just possibly, taking back Official Opposition status for a progressive party. This confirms that Hehr is under the same delusions as Van Vliet: the NDP and the Liberals had Official Opposition status in Alberta for 30 years, and were spinning their wheels for about 29 of those. Whatever one thinks of the Wildrose Party’s philosophy, I think one must admit that they have made more effective use of the Opposition Leader’s office in eight months than anyone else did in the previous decade or more. If we’re applying the “Do they visibly annoy the Premier?” test they are already the all-time undisputed Alberta champions.

The Liberals and the NDP are zombie brands in Alberta now. Is Thomas “Dutch Disease” Mulcair’s leadership of the national NDP going to help Alberta’s Brian Mason woo voters? (This might be just me, but the time I saw them conduct a joint press conference it reminded me of feuding siblings trying to make nice for Nana at Christmas.) Will the coronation of Justin “Too Many Albertans” Trudeau help Raj Sherman get ahead? The private hope amongst their supporters, I suppose, is that Alberta history’s next Aberhart-like figure who comes out of nowhere and builds an overwhelming reputation outside party politics will choose to climb into their pickup truck. But this raises the question why such a person might conceivably need a ride in a rusted-out lemon.

Last night’s Calgary Centre by-election, won by media personality and former newspaper editor Joan Crockatt, was held in the most pro-Naheed Nenshi part of what is now a very pro-Nenshi city. Like Crockatt last night, Nenshi exploited a split opposition to win the Calgary mayoralty in 2010. But Calgary’s civic Ward 8, which makes up about two-thirds of the Calgary Centre riding, is a place where the mayor dominated all other contestants combined, taking 58% of the vote. The Green Party’s Chris Turner has close ties to Nenshi (though the mayor didn’t endorse anybody), and Turner was clearly hoping to capitalize on that success, employing Nenshi campaign staffers and Nenshian social-media tactics.

It earned him 26% of the vote. That’s still an amazing figure for a Green Party-labelled candidate in Calgary—especially an unknown one with essentially no pre-existing local political apparatus to exploit. From a standing start, Turner earned 20 votes for every three cast for the NDP’s Dan Meades.

The more meaningful pre-election data, however, may have come not from 2010 but from this year’s provincial election, in which Calgary Centre covers about the same area as three downtown constituencies: Calgary-Elbow, home base of both Ralph Klein and Alison Redford; Calgary-Buffalo, the city’s Liberal stronghold; and Calgary-Currie. The right-wing Wildrose Party got 12,694 votes there in April, and one would have to think that many of them were among the 10,201 who made it out to vote for Conservative Crockatt last night. (Her campaign was as Wildrose-heavy as Turner’s was Nenshi-heavy.) The Liberals had 8,449 provincial votes in the zone, and federal Liberal Harvey Locke got 9,034 last night.

That doesn’t speak particularly well for Locke’s performance, despite the fact that he kept pace with Crockatt deep into the evening. Calgary Centre represented a great opportunity for the Liberals, and Locke is one of the province’s best-known and well-liked conservationists. He needed to add to a dwindling base of diehard brand-loyal Liberals to win; instead, a Green spoiler attacked him in direct mailings as “stuck in the us-against-them environmentalism of the past” and grabbed four votes to every five of Locke’s. This is a pretty brazen move for somebody running under Elizabeth May’s banner, but I’m betting we will see more deployment of this Environmentalism 2.0 card from Green candidates.

Which brings us to the bushwhacking of Justin Trudeau, who made some comments about how Albertans are ruining the country on TV in Quebec a couple of years ago and was suddenly confronted with them by Sun Media in the last days of the campaign. I don’t know that these comments would have discouraged a loyal Liberal from voting for Harvey Locke. But Locke was supposed to have a great deal of red-Tory support that would have once gone to the incumbent MP, old Lougheed hand Lee Richardson (now Premier Redford’s principal secretary). Since Crockatt lost half of Richardson’s vote share, those voters certainly went somewhere. Or, rather, nowhere. Justin’s shoot-at-Alberta-from-the-hip himbo explosion probably kept quite a few of them at home on a chilly November day.

There is a lot of doubt afoot about the possible relevance of Justin’s comments, but nobody is really questioning whether they were foolish; if he was placed in a no-win situation, whose fault is that? Hint: it’s not only Justin’s. Some of the blame must go to the Liberals who are supposedly his rivals for the party leadership, but are acting as though he is already their leader and it would be unseemly to criticize him in public. Any one of them could have stepped in with some sharp words and helped rescue Harvey Locke. Instead, Calgary seems quite justified in rejecting the Screw Alberta Party by a narrow margin.

Locke, a former president of the Alberta Liberal Party, is leaving the door open for another Liberal run in the next general election. Anything is possible. But while voters might have seen Locke as a victim of circumstance this time, wouldn’t the perception be very different in 2015, especially if Justin Trudeau is the leader? At that point, wouldn’t Locke seem to Alberta voters like one of those guys who just never learns?

Welcome to live coverage of tonight’s by-elections in Victoria, Calgary Centre and Durham. Results should start coming in after 10pm when polls close in Victoria. We’ll be here all night (or at least as long as it takes to exhaust whatever drama can be found).

Some numbers by which to measure the night. First, the vote percentages from the 2011 election in each riding.

Durham
Conservatives 54.6
NDP 21.1
Liberals 17.9
Greens 5.4

Calgary Centre
Conservatives 57.7
Liberals 17.5
NDP 14.9
Greens 9.9

Victoria
NDP 50.8
Conservatives 23.6
Liberals 14.0
Greens 11.6

If you combine the 2011 results for those three ridings, the cumulative total divides like so.

Conservatives 44.3
NDP 30.0
Liberals 16.4
Greens 9.0

9:45pm. Beyond the obvious (who wins?), some questions for tonight. How low does the Conservative vote go in Calgary Centre? How well does the NDP vote from 2011 hold up? Can the Liberals show improvement? Can the Greens make significant gains?

Calgary Centre is obviously the riding to watch (although the numbers will still be interesting in Durham and Victoria). After the Conservative party was united, Lee Richardson won 51.2%, 55.4%, 55.6% and 57.7% in four elections. If the polls hold true, Joan Crockatt could win the riding, but finish with a total under 40%. The lowest total for a winning conservative in Calgary Centre is 40.1%, by the Reform party’s Eric Lowther, when the right was split between Reform and the Progressive Conservatives.

10:01pm. First results are in. With 15 polls reporting, Joan Crockatt has a nine-vote lead in Calgary Centre.

10:09pm. With 30 polls reporting, the Liberal lead in Calgary Centre is down to 35 votes. Meanwhile, Durham looks like a comfortable win for the Conservatives, though at the moment the Conservative vote is down slightly and the NDP vote is up.

10:12pm. Through 35 polls, Mr. Locke’s lead is 54 votes.

10:14pm. And just like that, with 40 polls in, Ms. Crockatt takes a 15-vote lead.

10:15pm. Back comes Mr. Locke. Through 45 polls, the candidates are tied with 990 votes.

10:23pm. It is of course notable that while Ms. Crockatt and Mr. Locke go back and forth, the Green party’s Chris Turner is getting a quarter of the vote in Calgary Centre. It will be tempting to suggest that, if Ms. Crockatt wins, it will be because the vote on the left was split, but I think that’s a problematic theory. Go back to the public polls in Calgary Centre. While the Green vote went up, the Liberal vote held steady. If anything, the rise in Green support coincided with a decline in the Conservative vote. If these numbers hold (as I write, Joan Crockatt is up slightly), the Conservatives will be down about 22 points and the NDP down about nine points. The Liberals will be up 14 points and the Greens will be up 15 points.

10:36pm. Safe to say Erin O’Toole will be the next MP for Durham. His share of the vote is down slightly (at the moment) from what Bev Oda took in 2011, but he’s still at 50%. The NDP looks like its share will be up and the Liberal vote will be down.

10:42pm. Still more than half the polls left to report, but Ms. Crockatt’s lead seems pretty steady. Through 100 polls, it’s 400 votes. Through 90 polls, it was 326 votes.

10:48pm. Meanwhile, in Victoria, the New Democrat (Murray Rankin) leads the Green candidate (Donald Galloway). A strong third in Calgary Centre and second in Victoria would probably qualify as a good night for the Greens.

10:53pm. That Conservative lead in Calgary Centre is narrowing. It was down to 334 votes through 111 polls. It’s now 238 votes through 121 polls.

10:55pm. Down to 218 votes through 126 polls. Up to 272 votes from 131 polls. Up to 293 votes through 135 polls.

11:04pm. Meanwhile, in Victoria, Mr. Galloway has a small lead through 24 polls. NDP and Conservative shares are down.

11:13pm. Ms. Crockatt’s lead went up to 400 votes and then back under 300 votes. Now it’s back over 300 votes. There are sporadic reports of other numbers (apparently from the Liberal side) showing the race even tighter than Elections Canada has so far reported.

11:27pm. Meanwhile, in Victoria, the Greens are back in the lead after losing it for a bit. At present, Victoria is, indeed, a “little bit Conservative.” Precisely, 12.8% Conservative.

11:36pm. Ms. Crockatt’s lead is now over 600 votes through 190 polls. If Macleans.ca would let me hire a decision desk that decision desk would be probably be advising me to call it.

11:50pm. So let’s now obsess over the Victoria results. The big issue in this by-election: poop. Namely, what to do with it. The New Democrat support a new sewage treatment plant, the Green candidate wanted a better plan. This debate resulted in Peter Julian and Elizabeth May getting mad at each other this evening on television. There was also some controversy over whether or not David Suzuki had actually endorsed Mr. Galloway.

12:00am. As we hit midnight in the eastern time zone, the NDP lead is 19 votes in Victoria through 120 polls.

12:04am. With 135 polls in, Mr. Galloway and the Greens take a three-vote lead.

12:13am. If the Greens win in Victoria, they’re the big story of the night. But even if they don’t get a win—they’re down 39 votes as I type—they might be the story. Chris Turner seems to have made gains at the Conservative party’s expense in Calgary Centre. And now Donald Galloway is making gains at the expense of the New Democrats and Conservatives in Victoria.

12:25pm. The Green lead is 141 votes.

12:29pm. Let us pause here to note that the Green nomination in Victoria, after a tied vote, was decided by a coin toss. But it was the guy who lost the coin toss that got the nomination.

Trevor Moat was declared the winner Saturday night, even giving his acceptance speech. However, he later learned that he and Galloway had been tied and that his victory was based on a coin toss. “I requested time to reflect on this unprecedented and unanticipated result to determine what would be best for the Green party and for me,” Moat said in statement.

After some soul searching, Moat decided Galloway — who has a full slate of volunteers in place, has been an adviser to the party and has a number of high-profile supporters in environmental and academic circles — was the stronger candidate.

12:47am. The Green lead reached 300 votes at one point, but just like that the NDP’s Murray Rankin has taken a 200-vote lead.

12:55am. The NDP lead is now nearly 400 votes and so suddenly it seems that the Conservatives and New Democrats will hold their respective ridings tonight.

1:11am. The NDP lead is now more than 800 votes with 205 polls in and so it seems Murray Rankin will soon join Joan Crockatt and Erin O’Toole in the House of Commons.

1:26am. Democracy never sleeps, but I do. With Victoria looking decided, I’m off to bed. We’ll look at the final numbers in the morning.

]]>http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/byelection-brouhaha-calgary-centre-durham-and-victoria/feed/45The state of play in Calgary Centrehttp://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-state-of-play-in-calgary-centre/
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-state-of-play-in-calgary-centre/#commentsFri, 23 Nov 2012 13:00:11 +0000Aaron Wherryhttp://www2.macleans.ca/?p=318472A new poll, this time from Return on Insight, gives the Conservatives a five-point lead over the Liberals in Calgary Centre.
Here are the top numbers in the four public…

Williams told me an Ontario MP’s far-away musings typically wouldn’t make much difference—except that this is a hard-fought three-way race, in which even a marginal shift in voter preferences might matter.

“The Conservatives are going to try to milk it for all it’s worth,” she said. “If this does cost the Liberals votes, would those votes by more likely to go to Joan Crockatt or Chris Turner? I’d have to say Chris Turner.” Her reasoning: “Turner has a lot in common with Locke. They’re both strong environmentalists.” As well, Williams doubts centrist voters—some of whom have swung from Conservative voting in the past to leaning Liberal this time—won’t see going Green as all that jarring a transition. “The Green party isn’t particularly left, it’s more centre.”

]]>http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/will-david-mcguinty-matter-in-calgary-centre/feed/16Maybe it really is a race?http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/maybe-it-really-is-a-race/
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/maybe-it-really-is-a-race/#commentsMon, 19 Nov 2012 16:08:53 +0000Aaron Wherryhttp://www2.macleans.ca/?p=316320A new Forum Research poll finds results in Calgary Centre similar those reported a week ago.
A poll released Sunday by Forum Research in Calgary Centre found 35 per cent …

A new Forum Research poll finds results in Calgary Centre similar those reported a week ago.

A poll released Sunday by Forum Research in Calgary Centre found 35 per cent in the riding plan to vote for Ms. Crockatt, while Liberal Harvey Locke had 30-per-cent support, the Green Party’s Chris Turner, 25 per cent, and the NDP’s Dan Meades, 8 per cent. Those numbers have not changed, given the margin of error of five percentage points, since a similar poll for a week ago. But it’s a 13-point drop for Ms. Crockatt, who stood at 48-per-cent support in a similar poll conducted a few weeks earlier.

]]>http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/maybe-it-really-is-a-race/feed/2Let’s all freak out about Calgary Centrehttp://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/lets-all-freak-out-about-calgary-centre/
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/lets-all-freak-out-about-calgary-centre/#commentsWed, 14 Nov 2012 16:21:44 +0000Aaron Wherryhttp://www2.macleans.ca/?p=314584It’s just one poll and the sample is small and the margin of error is high and the riding has never been anything other than Conservative… but for the sake…

It’s just one poll and the sample is small and the margin of error is high and the riding has never been anything other than Conservative… but for the sake of finding some excitement in this fall’s by-elections, you could imagine that Calgary Centre might be a race.

As reported by the Globe & Mail, the November survey of 376 randomly selected residents in Calgary-Centre showed Ms. Crockatt with 32% to 30% for Mr. Locke and 23% for Mr. Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 12%. The survey is considered to be accurate by plus or minus five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

If this new survey is to be believed, then the November 26 vote could be much more exciting than most political watchers, including myself, had previously predicted. A similar survey conducted by Forum Research in October found Ms. Crockatt with 48% to 28% for Mr. Locke, 11% for Mr. Turner, and 8% for Mr. Meades. Another survey from Forum Research conducted in August found the Conservatives with 44% to 21% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, and 12% for the Greens. It appears that within a matter of months, the 40% margin of victory earned by former Conservative MP Lee Richardson in the 2011 federal election and 23% margin for the Conservatives found in the September survey may have completely evaporated.