It's the big question ­facing first-time buyers and homeowners ­coming to the end of their ­mortgage deal.

Do you fix now to protect ­yourself from future interest rate rises... or go for a cheaper tracker deal?

Base rates have been at 0.5 per cent for more than two years.

And with the news that inflation fell in June, many financial experts ­now believe that the Bank of ­England is unlikely to raise base rates until next year at the ­earliest.

But many mortgage deals run for two years or more so, while variable deals offer the best rates, that could change if the Bank of England acts.

David Black, banking analyst at independent researchers Defaqto, said: “Interest rates can only go one way. But the question is when, by how much and how quickly. Those who make the wrong ­judgment are likely to find themselves ­significantly out of pocket.” The good news is that plenty of lenders have been trimming their mortgage rates recently. It means more low-cost deals, although the best are reserved for those with a decent size deposit, typically at least 30 per cent. Last week NatWest cut its two-year fixed-rate from 3.25 to 2.55 per cent. It is ­available for those borrowing up to 60 per cent of the home’s value.

Chelsea Building Society slashed its five-year deal to 3.79 per cent while Nationwide has launched a five-year fix at 3.89 per cent.

As our table on the left shows, the lowest rates are still variable deals. If you want to keep your options open, consider a deal which does not have early repayment penalties, such as ING Direct’s tracker, which follows the base rate plus 1.89 per cent for two years (currently 2.39 per cent).

But James Cotton, of brokers London & Country Mortgages, warned: “Go with a variable rate now and then try to fix your mortgage, and you might miss out.