The Dollars and Cents of Incumbency

Even if they have impressive war chests, challengers still face long odds in taking on
incumbent members of the House of Representatives.

The dramatically escalating cost of unseating incumbents can be seen in the charts below. In the tumultuous
1994 elections that brought Republicans control of Congress after more than 40 years in the minority, half-a-million
dollars was enough to wage a competitive campaign with a 50-50 chance of winning. Today those odds aren't so good.

Chart

Average Spending byChallenger and Incumbent

Year

AvgChallenger

AvgIncumbent

No. of WinningChallengers

1974

$100,435

$101,102

40

1976

$144,720

$154,774

12

1978

$217,083

$200,607

19

1980

$343,093

$286,559

31

1982

$296,273

$453,459

23

1984

$518,781

$463,070

17

1986

$523,308

$562,139

6

1988

$703,740

$876,678

7

1990

$462,546

$631,025

16

1992

$433,482

$840,922

19

1994

$644,640

$945,608

34

1996

$1,070,162

$1,040,878

21

1998

$1,123,783

$1,281,633

6

2000

$2,024,725

$2,511,368

6

2002

$1,595,805

$2,141,672

4

2004

$1,616,513

$2,003,504

5

2006

$1,821,756

$2,787,977

22

2008

$1,971,197

$2,354,163

19

2010

$1,651,508

$2,599,695

53

2012

$2,456,903

$3,108.968

22

Odds Against Beating a US House IncumbentBased on
Spending by the Challenger

In the 2012 elections...

Under $1,000,000

293:2

$1 million to $1,499,999

18:4

$1.5 million to $1,999,999

9:4

$2 million or more

1:1

In the 2010 elections...

Under $1,000,000

284:9

$1 million to $1,499,999

20:19

$1.5 million to $1,999,999

1:1

$2 million or more

13:14

In the 2008 elections...

Under $1,000,000

302:1

$1 million to $1,499,999

4:1

$1.5 million to $1,999,999

5:2

$2 million or more

14:9

In the 2006 elections...

Under $1,000,000

100:1

$1 million to $1.5 million

7:2

Over $1.5 million

8:5

In the 2004 elections...

Under $1,000,000

0

$1 million to $1.5 million

16:1

Over $1.5 million

5:2

In the 2002 elections...

Under $500,000

0

$500,000-$1 million

8:1

$1 million or more

10:1

In the 2000 elections...

Under $500,000

0

$500,000-$1 million

24:1

$1 million - $1.5 million

15:1

Over $1.5 million

3:1

In the 1998 elections...

Under $100,000

0

$100,000-$249,999

18:1

$250,000-$499,999

6:1

$500,000 & over

Even

NOTE: Figures in the table above are in actual dollars.
Figures in chart above are adjusted for inflation. Races
between two incumbents are not included.

Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics. For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: info@crp.org

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