Kansas State: The Wildcats were a very good team in 2012. As Oregon showed, they were not a great one. The Wildcats were very fortunate with turnovers last year, recovering 21/32 fumbles. This turned at least one game for them against Oklahoma. They lose 14 starters, most notably quarterback Collin Klein. They return just one starter on defense. In a conference that features six of the Top 22 offenses vs. FBS last year, that’s a scary thought.

Texas A&M: We put nothing past Johnny Football. That said, this team may be ranked in the top five heading into the season. That’s a little strong. The Aggies had a loaded, veteran team last year. This one returns just 10 starters and four on defense. A&M loses not only numbers but talent. With Luke Joeckel and Damontre Moore, they are losing two potential top five draft picks. There’s a new offensive coordinator. One might also expect Arkansas, Auburn and Missouri to put up more of a fight than last season. Kevin Sumlin has reinvigorated this program, though a second-year slump during a rebuilding year would not be unsurprising.

Louisville: A huge bowl win will cloud over doubts. The Cardinals did beat Florida, but they were very lucky to win 11 games. They recovered 69 percent of fumbles in 2012. That could have drastically affected a season where they went 6-1 in one-score games (many of them against putrid teams). Most measures not dictated by opinion placed Louisville outside the Top 35. Teddy Bridgewater is awesome. There are plenty of reasons to think a young Louisville team makes progress. The progress, though, will come from their true 2012 baseline, not from their final AP ranking. Expecting them to be a legit Top 10 team may be a little much.

Florida State: The Seminoles have a track record of underperforming, and they shed significant depth and quality of talent heading into 2013. FSU loses 12 starters from last year, and brings back one of their starting front seven on defense. They lose experience and playmaking ability at quarterback with E.J. Manuel’s departure. They also have coordinator changes on both sides of the ball. Florida State still may be the ACC’s most talented team, but that has been true most of the past decade when they have disappointed.

Florida: The Gators lose a ton of depth and talent with just 11 starters coming back. Departures include Matt Elam, Shariff Floyd and Jelani Jenkins and Mike GIllislee and Jordan Reed on offense. It still looks like the Gators could struggle in the passing game. Their defense might not shut teams down the way it did in 2012. Their last six FBS games (at LSU, at Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, Florida State) could be very unforgiving.

Comments

Also a hearty laugh at Florida State for managing to be a letdown candidate on the back of being the second most disappointing team in college football.

Babar 2.0

Oklahoma

sctrojans

Could see ATM’s record putting them outside the top five in the rankings(losses to Bammer, at LSU) but still think they’ll be one of the five best teams

https://twitter.com/arkbadger arkbadger

One might also expect Arkansas, Auburn and Missouri to put up more of a fight than last season

honestly, I don’t know how much of a fight any of these three will put up. I think they should be better, but I don’t think aTm loses to any of these 3 teams.

oskie

how in the hell isn’t notre dame on this list? was getting their shit pushed in the NT game enough?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVM5DPe20N0 A.P.

Louisville will have another good season. They won’t have to face syracuse next year so that’s a loss avoided. Big East will be a total joke. Worse than it ever was.

wnnrwppg

Notre Dame should be all five of these spots.

Not sure I understand this? Because of Te’o? They might be better next year than they were this year. Returning their entire offense (minus RB which they have two amazing options for starter next year) and most of their D. Ohio State needs to be on this list, they actually play real football teams next year.

sctrojans

how in the hell isn’t notre dame on this list? was getting their shit pushed in the NT game enough?

They were a bit of a sham this yr. Smoked a weak OU, squeaked by an awful SC, lucked out v Stan and Pitt, barely beat BYU

Ty_Webb

USC

Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce

Louisville are included on here for their record being flattering to them, clearly not a better example of that then ND.

sctrojans

Not sure how Oregon wasn’t on the list

sctrojans

USC

Ha! Letdown? Who is expecting anything? Aside from Pat “Wool Pulled Over His Eyes” Haden

Ty_Webb

In Wittek we trust!

sctrojans

In Wittek we trust!

I assure you Marqise Lee is not a member of that “we”. Need a breakout year from Agholor

What Pendergast does will be critical too

/ms yawns

mmonast

Ohio State needs to be on this list, they actually play real football teams next year.

Which of the following would you consider a “real football team”: Buffalo, SD State, Florida A&M (wow) Northwestern, Iowa. Those are the teams they didn’t play last year replacing Miami (OH), UCF, UAB, Nebraska, and Purdue

http://twitter.com/ButtersBC ButtersBC

They might be better next year than they were this year

They could be better and go 9-3 just due to the odds of not pulling every close game out again and having tougher road games

http://twitter.com/#!/JHScramble Jim Harbaugh Scramble

Also a hearty laugh at Florida State for managing to be a letdown candidate on the back of being the second most disappointing team in college football.

funny what a horrible choke job against NCSU can do to a season.

Nada

Damn, I forgot overnight who did the previous post and was pestering Hernia about this one earlier. Sorry, Hernia.

Jay V Of Considerable Influence

Louisville could be a worse team next year, and still go undefeated.

http://tylerduffy.com/ Ty Duffy

I had Ohio State on this list because of their attrition up front on defense, looked at their schedule and took them off. Dropped MSU and Nebraska off their B1G schedule. Non-conf is pathetic. Mich and WIsconsin look like only games that will even be competitive.

Nada

Also, how can LSU not be on the list? Losing 11 players, including 8 underclassmen, to the NFL. Plus they still have no QB (at least not until L’il Rape proves himself on a regular basis). Plus they’re still game-coached by The Hat.

http://i.imgur.com/Ns8ac.gif VladimirCrouton

I had Ohio State on this list because of their attrition up front on defense