Latvia GDP Q4 2015

Latvia: Economic growth moderates in Q4

January 29, 2016

Latvia’s economic growth moderated in the final quarter of 2015, but the economy remains solid. According to a preliminary estimate released by the National Statistics Office on 29 January, GDP increased 3.0% in Q4 over the same period of the previous year. The reading came in below the 3.3% expansion reported in Q3, which had marked the fastest pace of increase since Q3 2013.

Although a detailed breakdown of data was not released with the preliminary estimate, the statistical office signaled that economic growth was supported by a 3.0% expansion in the industrial sector and growth of 1.0% in services. Meanwhile, growth in the construction sector decreased in Q4.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison confirms the slowdown suggested by the annual data. GDP, when adjusted for seasonal factors, was flat in Q4, which came in well below the 0.9% expansion registered in Q3. More complete data will be published on 29 February. If the preliminary estimate is confirmed, Latvia’s GDP would have increased 2.7% in the full year 2015. The reading marked an improvement over the 2.4% expansion registered in 2014.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 3.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.0% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3%.

Author:Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist

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