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6/6/09

Let's see if this shameless President decides to ride roughshod over internationals, too:

The Chair of the Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (UNPFII) expresses her shock and deep distress at reports received of atrocities committed starting 5 June against indigenous peoples in the Amazon region, resulting in the loss of lives, disappearances and grave injuries. The Chair sends her deepest condolences to the families of the victims. The Chair calls upon the Peruvian Government to:

Immediately cease all violence against indigenous communities and organizations,

Ensure immediate and urgent medical attention to the wounded and assist the families of the victims,

Abide by its national and international obligations regarding the protection of all human rights, including the rights of indigenous peoples and human rights defenders, especially their right to life and security.

Santiago Manuin was shot to death by Peru police yesterday at Bagua. President of the Condorcanqui Amazon defence group, he won the Queen Sofi a of Spain award for his work in defending the environment of the Amazon Basin. The kind of person that Twobreakfasts calls "not a first class citizen". UPDATE Sunday evening: Well, that Mark twain quote is apt, I'm glad to say. Manuin is still alive but in a bad state, having taken eight police bullets and several emergency operations. Man of steel, it seems. ¡Que te recuperes, Santi!

This is the link to a Google News page in English filtered for English language news on Bagua and the repercussions. You'll get all the latest stories from Reuters, AP, AFP, NYT etc on it. Better than me trying to update the story constantly.

Once again Peruvian society has failed. The death of Peruvian citizens in confrontations that could have been avoided is a symptom of our failure. Moreover, the indifference and even the justification by many commentators and bloggers, who are able to accept these deaths as necessary to maintain order and development means that we are still very far from being a country that can progress.

Well I thought that was "finally, but this is important. Comercio is reporting that of the 38 police officers taken hostage last night, 22 have escaped/were rescued, nine have been killed and the rest are missing.

Here's a good blog "Bagua Peru", with the blogger updating regularly today on everything that's been happening. Here's a snippet from one of the posts:

"Also, it's been noted that police in the Curva del Diablo sector have started using special bags to retrieve human remains (i.e. bodies) and it is feared that they will be disappeared to bring down the bodycount."

Still liking this "investment grade" Peru of yours, gringo?

Burning the evidenceThe post from Red Ucuyali is the necessary translation below. Seems like Twobreakfasts has learned some tricks from Uribe; burn the bodies and say "hey...wasn't that bad y'know"

Feliz Calva Guerrero, reporter for Radio Marañón, says he has seen various dead people with bullet wounds and/or savagely beaten ('massacred' was the term he used) and that the police were burning the bodies.

Marijke Deleu, a Belgian volunteer who has been a supporter of the indigenous strike action since last month, has said that she was in the area called 'El Reposo' when the police offensive began. She said that they started to bomb the protestors from the air and those surrounding them opened fire with machine guns. She said "there was nowhere to run". At 5pm she went back to the El Reposo zone where she saw the bodies of five indigenous. All were very young. One had been shot in the mouth. The police were looking in the surrounding hillsides for more bodies. Up to that moment no fiscal had been to the scene. She has heard from other people that the police are taking the bodies to the El Milagro army barracks to burn them.

Here's some shaky footage from Peru TV tonight of the images being shown on the news shows.

UPDATE 2: Apparently most if not all the police deaths happened when a police helicopter crashed, killing its occupants. The unconfirmed story has the heliopter overflying protestors who fired on the aircraft, bringing it down. Also, one of the dead civilians is Alberto Mauin, internationally garlanded pacifist, über-respected indigenous leader and personal friend of Queen Sofia of Spain.

....and will have a fundamental report on one of the two new buy recommendations from last week's issue. As for those two newbies on the list, right now one is up 11% on the week and the other 32.4% up. All in all I think we can claim a couple of small victories there, no ? :-)

As well as the specific stocks, we'll be checking out the political risk situation in the region of Colombia quickly becoming famous as home to Ventana Gold (VEN.to) and Greystar (GSL.to). Food for thought there, I'm sure. All that and the usual LatAm market watching and trading comments. It'd be great to see new faces on board, so if you feel like risking $25 on a month's subscription the buttons are over there on the right. At $25 the risk is low, you can unsubscribe with ease and you might just learn something that makes you 10X or 100X that money. According to feedback from those on board already, a lot of people have paid for a year's worth of service several times over thanks to the ideas and tips, so that's gratifying.

Now unplugging. Enjoy the weekend, dudettes and dudes and look out for The Friday OT later on. I'm off to watch Del Potro (hopefully) close out Federer. ¡Vamos Tandil!

The Chilean number reported today is the IMACEC figure, a reliable proxy to GDP. It also means that Chile's economy is now in recession to the tune of -1.3% (the annual figure).

When we look at how Chile's monthly IMACEC number compares to Peru's monthly reported GDP.....

......we see that the two are very closely related, unsurprising for two economies have have much in common. Which means that if Peru is honest with the world when it reports its number (usually on or around the 15th of the month) it will turn in a negative result of -0.7% (give or take) for April 2009. The only question left is whether the INEI has the balls to tell the truth....recent evidence casts doubt.

It was one of those things I didn't want to say out loud, but the whole Peruvian Amazonas state of emergency and protests against the laws that Twobreakfasts has tried to force through in order to develop the Amazon basin oil business looked like spiralling out of control at any given moment.

That moment came today. In Bagua Grande Amazonas, at a place called "Curva del Diablo", indigenous protestors have blocked the main highway for the last 10 days. This morning police moved into break up the roadblock. The toll left after the confrontation is four dead police officers, one dead indigenous leader and 20 injured. UPDATE: It's getting worse. Authorities are now reporting between seven and ten dead police, two dead civilians and local health services "are collapsing" under the number of injured. UPDATE 2: It's getting worse and worse. Unofficial numbers now talk about twenty-five civilian deaths. This number is as yet unconfirmed, but even if it's half that number we're looking at a true bloodbath. Also, reports talk of government and APRA party building being burned and running battles in the town centre of Bagua Grande.Points to make:

My sincere condolences go out to the families of the police officers. They were basically ordered into battle this morning by superiors that knew there would be casualties.

These indigenous are not messing about. This is not some sort of posture. They will kill and kill again to protect their lands, be in no doubt. And before you try to pigeonhole them, they're not a band of ignorants; these people know both sides of the argument but the need to safeguard the land is an ancient cultural calling. They are willing to die if necessary to protect the area from forced development.

They are also extremely efficient fighters. Seriously, you don't mess with these dudes, even with an AK-47 in your hands and body armour on your chest.

All this came after a pathetic scene in Peru's parliament this week when the chamber was about to vote down the controversial law, the so-called 1090 decree, (the so-called "law of the jungle") when suddenly the APRA members threw a faked hissyfit and stormed out of the building, thus stopping the final vote. The locals shouldn't kill police? Of course. Police shouldn't have been ordered in? Of course. Leaders in The Republic of Lima have just used the bodies of four police officers as cannonfodder and an excuse to send in the army? Yes, that as well.

The big Twobreakfasts plan to save Peru from recession is the "PEE" (Plan de Estímulo Económico or Economic Stimulus Plan). The whole idea is basically pumping a shitload of money into the economy via public works (roads, build schools, hospitals...a whole list of stuff like that) using funds tucked away for the rainy day. The liars at FinMin came up with a plan to spend U$2.5Bn in 2009 which would, according to their skewed slide rules, add 3% GDP growth to Peru this year and save the country from the abyss.

Well here we are six months down the line and how is the plan coming along?

Oh dear.

Of the $2.5Bn aimed at Peru from the government coffers, only U$390m has been or is being spent right now. According to this report in South America's 'serious' bizpress, AmericaEconomia, 16% of planned national works are or have happened, regional governments have executed 12% of their plans and local governments have m,anaged to get 15% of their plans going. Anyone who knows anything at all about LatAm bureaucracy will not be at all surprised, as most of the time they're trying to work out how much of the slush can end up in their own back pockets. In fact, it's interesting to speculate on just how much of that supposed $390m number has been diverted, never to be seen again (and certainly never to be turned into cement, rebar or tarmacadam).

There's more chance of Diego Maradona bedding Keira Knightley than there is of this plan adding 3% to Peru's GDP this year, but I doubt anyone in the higher echelons of Twobreakfastslandia cares a damn because there's always INEI available to fix the figures for them. Style above substance? Of course! It's South America, dude.

Yes it's back again! Another round in the South American qualifiers is on us this weekend (with the second match in the pair next week) so IKN will be running its usual hypothetical bets on the matches (hypothetical cos I'm too bad at betting to risk real moolah). The last rounds back in March left us with our virtual pot with $141.25, so at least we have some shekels to throw. Here we go with this round's matchups. Prices as usual by UK bookmaker Ladbrokes

Now the analysis and selectionsThis is when the whole qualifiers regime down here gets deadly serious. There's now no margin for error for a lot of these sides if they want to bag the 27 or 28 point that guarantee passage to South Africa next year.

Uruguay versus Brazil will be a cracking match, as will Paraguay vs Chile. All four teams are capable of great football but I'm not backing any of them because there isn't a result, home draw or away, that would truly surprise me.

Venezuela offers value for the draw against Bolivia. Yes we all know what happened to Argentina in La Paz last time, but the Venezuelans have spent the last 10 days up there acclimatizing.

I don't think Argentina will beat Colombia, I think they will murder them, lacerat them, take them apart. Diego's team has looked both good and bad, but now's the time it has to click into top gear to ensure its place in the finals. Odds of 3/10 may look short, but I think they'll be looking great value at half time.

As for the other match, whipping boy Peru will lose to Ecuador and the 11/8 on offer is great value. Peru's fottballers are currently threatening to strike unless its governing body resigns and there's all sorts of shenanigans going on. Also, the match has only sold 7,000 tickets so far as the fans are totally disillusioned. They'll have to fill the stadium with last minute cheapseats but the atmosphere won't be a real home match-

So my bets are:$10 on Bolivia/Venezuela to draw at 11/4$80 on Argentina to win at 3/10$51.25 on Ecuador to win at 11/8

6/4/09

...and it may as well be me, even though I know what kind of hatemail can come of it from his fanatics. So for the record....

1) ....if you're not a regular mailer don't expect your mail to be read for the next few days unless you make it clear in the title line you're not a Sinclair wingnut.

2).....no comments left under this post will be published, not even people who might agree with me.

With that clear, I was just sent the article below by a regular reader who simply commented "what an asshole". Once I'd read it I thought 'asshole' was being kind. This is the same Jim Sinclair who made a point of offering his "hand to hold" at anytime his flock wanted to hear soothing words about gold. The same Sinclair that makes believe he's a simple public servant. The same Sinclair that made a point of saying his "Mineset" website had no affiliation with his company Tanzanian Royalty Exchange (TRE) and would make no pitch for people to buy shares.

It's not just the fact he doesn't want to play hand-holder any longer, it's the way he lashes out at the people he attracted with all this "I'm here to help" music. The arrogance, assumed superiority and outright nastiness in the article below is overwhelming.

One human being has no right whatsoever to talk to another human being like this. It's totally wrong. And then at the end to try and flog his "compendium" (whatever that is...don't have a clue as to what, where or how much) on the back of a guilt trip and as piece de la resistance hook the crowd in as registered shareholders of his company, TRE...well that's despicable after all he's said previously.

The man comes across as a boy; an immature, pouting capricious kid throwing a tantrum. Really, it's embarrassing. Apologize, Sinclair.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms, It has to be a plot to drive me insane.

I get questions every day from gold guys asking what happens if deflation rules the day. It reminds me of the attack of the Prechterites that comes every time gold reacts 2%. How many times do I have to repeat myself? Hyperinflation is a currency event brought about by a collapse in business activity, offset by QE in any of its many forms, throughout all of history without exception. We are already in "deflation ruling the day" because deflation is debt failure. Are you blind? Did you not see GM debt fail totally yesterday? Chrysler is gone. Don't think for a moment that Ford is not having potentially terminal problems from their credit division and sales as well. Deflation is today. Debt implosion also includes OTC derivative failure. Once again, are you blind? 97% of you do absolutely nothing in return for the mind blowing amount of work I do for you. I wonder if you read this even though we are a top rated site in a number of Google categories. 98% of you have nothing whatsoever to do with anything else I do. 95% of you drop in occasionally and are too lazy to read so you just write in asking questions that have been covered literally one hundred times. I have shared my wisdom with you. I have given you a search on the website but you ask the same basic questions day after day after day. I have offered you a Compendium of everything you ask but the amount of people who have purchased it is a major disappointment to me. If you value this site then you need to purchase a Compendium. This is what keeps us up and running and we cannot continue to do it without these sales. We are not for profit, we simply use the money to cover our costs. The amount of information included in any of the Compendium packages is unmatchable for the price, and allows JSMineset.com to continue into the future. Think how much you are getting by supporting us and Click here to go to the Compendium Order page... I will no longer answer the same questions continually. Readers have the obligation to do some research as I have given you all the tools to answer every question that is put to me in the God awful amount of emails and faxes I get every day. My registered stockholders have an absolute right to my time without exception to inquire with me on any subject and to receive my answer. From this moment forward only REGISTERED TRE stockholders have absolute right to my time on whatever subject they require help on. There has to be a triage, or no one can maintain this degree of workload.

The thing has just taken off like a scalded cat thanks to three pieces of very positive, price driving news.

1. Ross Beaty bought another chunk of the stock, this time on the open market. You see the 2m going through at $2 on the chart? All Ross. By the way, today he installed his man on the BoD at VEN.to, with Robert Pirooz the man indicated.

2. TD Securities(via its Newcrest subsid) today issued a Spec Buy rating on VEN.to with a price target of $4. I have a copy of the early morning alert here (the fuller, more in-depth fundy analysis is to follow, they say) but the argument used by TD is a brave one. They've taken a bunch of drill core results (admittedly there are quite a few of them, but still....) and before even an initial resource estimate has been made by the on-site team has assumed a 10,000tpd thruput machine on top of the resource, with capex figures and all, that whacks out 490,000oz Au per annum over seven years at a cash cost of under U$300/oz. If you get the chance to read a copy, do so. I haven't a clue where you can get one, though.....oh, by the way, any time anyone would like to drop me a line it otto.rock1 (AT) gmail (DOT) com, though why that should occur to me now is quite beyond me....

Anyway, it looks as though the analysts were told to come up with a compelling buy scenario for VEN.to and then did so in spades. Overall I have to applaud analysts Daniel Earle and Shey Ylonen as I'm sure they both know they're sticking their necks out. However it's good to see a corporate analysis be strong and bold and challenging for a change....far too much wishywashy dross to read out there otherwise.

3.This latest drill return PR that hit the interwebnetpipes at 1:09pm and shot the stock up another leg (it finished today a measley 54.7% up on 5X volumes). Dudettes and dudes, 94.5m at 5.83 g/t Au is a seriously, seriously good piece of drillcore.

The result is the unstoppable climb of VEN.to. I'm very happy for a couple of readers, especially BB who's been loading the boat all this time. I'm filled with a bit of chagrin for having got on early and then stepped off early, but not too down about it. I made a good profit (which would have been a great profit) and there's no reason to moan too hard; a win is a win. I'm more annoyed with myself about badly leading at least one regular reader out the stock who traded in and out with me...remember that i'm the whussy one, dudes. But that Beaty guy sure has the perma-Midas touch, no? Maybe it's time to look at that Argentine copper thing of his again.....

Wowsers, it seems there's still a little honour left in a pocket or two of the Twobreakfasts government. About 20 minutes ago the official state gazette announced that the gov't lackey in charge of the situation until now Mining Veep, Felipe Isasi Cayo, had resigned.

The dude had taken a pretty soft line with the DRP management and assured one and all that the situation would be resolved "between the private companies". Now he's gone it's easier to speculate that Peru is going to play hardball and may even do what I hope it will do...seize the plant in the name of the nation.

C'mon Twobreakfasts, give me chance to say "well done" about you for once....

UPDATE early evening: WooHoo! Bloomiedude Emery got a scoopette and it looks promising. There's no fat lady singing on this one yet, but at least the idea is on the table and has two important backers.

By Alex Emery June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Doe Run Peru union and governmentofficials today will discuss a state takeover of the company’ssmelter, closed this week because of a lack of financing, aunion leader said. Peru’s Cabinet Chief Yehude Simon may be open to a takeoverif the unit of New York-based Renco Group Inc. can’t reach anaccord with the government and creditors on a $175 millionbailout, Mining Federation General Secretary Luis Castillo said. “Simon has promised a Plan B if the bailout fallsthrough,” Castillo said today in an interview at thefederation’s office in Lima. “A nationalization of the smelterwould favor workers, as the current situation isunsustainable.” The smelter, which was operating at 30 percent of capacityuntil last week, closed all its installations on June 2 afterrunning out of concentrates. Banks froze Doe Run’s accounts onFeb. 24 after metal prices collapsed. Doe Run says it needs moretime to settle its debts and invest in an environmental cleanup. Doe Run Peru vice-president Jose Mogrovejo didn’t returntelephone calls or an e-mail seeking comment.

Just punch a guy in the eye as he walks over to greet you. And not any old dude, either. If you're going to be a thug, why not be a thug to a Nobel laureate? And hey, great idea! As you know the person you've just violently attacked from out the blue is a good and kind person you know he won't make a scandal about it and tell the world. Here's the report that has finally come to light over 30 years after the incident between Nobel winner Gabriel García Marquez and the psychotic Mario Vargas Llosa and here's a translated taster:

He (Gabriel García Marquez) went over to him (Mario Vargas Llosa) to greet and hug him. "Mario!" was the only thing he managed to say as a welcome, because Vargas Llosa greeted him with a punch that knocked him on to the carpet with a face covered in blood.

Violent attacks on friends without any warnings that were the result of irrational jealousy? Sounds like just the kind of stable character that the LatAm right wing admires....should make a great President of Peru one day. Not.

It also works if your keyword is "delincuentes" (criminals), the top return being the Ministry of Industry. ENJOY!! It'll only work til it doesn't, but to prove I'm not making it up here's an EFE newswire report about the hack (Spanish language).

UPDATE: Thanks to commenter Matteo, we now know that if you type in "chorros" (slang for thieves) you get the Arnet website, the internet service run by Telecom Argentina (TEO)

Thanks to commenter Un Tal Lucas, we now know that if you type in "hijos de puta" (slang for ...well, visit BsAs more than five minutes and you'll hear it) you get the website for Telefonica.

Linked here is an interview in today's El Comercio with Peru's Minister of Energy and Mines, Pedro Sánchez. It's also and example of why I read El Comercio so much, because despite the fact the media channel is mind-numbingly sycophantic towards its government (and especially this time round as APRA will always return favours) it also gets to be the invited source when the gov't wants to send out a message. Today we get the Twobreakfasts admin wanting to send one of those messages to those at Renco about Doe Run Peru (DRP) at La Oroya, currently totally shut down because no miner is stupid enough to send their concentrates there for smelting cos they know they won't get paid. So today we get a minister interviewed by a Comercio dude.

The interview is very good in fact, and if you know how to read into what's being said here what we have is Peru telling Ira Rennert "you either put up or you lose the deal, cos this goes no further." If there's one line that symbolizes this it's the last Q&A (translated here):

El Comercio: However the mining company (i.e, DRP) says it's impossible for it to get financing funds (to comply with its obligations).

Pedro Sánchez: Doe Run is a private company. It seems not to understand this because it's asking all the world to help it out, but it won't aloow itself to be helped."

Now that might not sound too polemic to your ears, kindly lector of IKN, but from the soft-spoken and calm mouth of Pedro Sánchez (who, it has to said, is a pretty good minister in the Twobreakfasts gov't...a rare thing indeed) is a very clear message...perhaps reading the whole interview will give you a better idea but you'll need to be hispanically unchallenged for the whole caboodle. By the way, the report was smart enough to pick up on this last Q&A and use it as his headline, too.

So we're now at the totally predictable endgame at DRP. Even the laggards in the higher ends of power have realized they've been played all this time by the despicable Rennert. I'll be the one cheering if they do the courageous thing, namely expropriate DRP and make it a state run company.

Happy days are here again in the southwestern corner of Canada. The sun is out, the thaw is thawed (or so they tell me) and the coffee is freshbrewed. Also, this weekend sees a major junior mining bash happening over that corner of the world, the "2009 World Resource Investment Conference" over at the VCC (get there early Sunday and don't miss Mickey Fulp's jawbone session. It'll be SRO and he's always good for a non-BS view of things).

Unfortunately your humble correspondent will not be in attendance due to future illness (conferences make me sick) but as IKN loves you like your very own parents, here's a special cut-out-and-keep table to take along with you to the show...guaranteed to break the ice with those extra special superduper rock stars of rock (tell Rick! Otto sez "hi" if you see him, yeah?).

The Vancouver Sun just published a list of BC's top paid executives. You can read the whole thing here, but below are the people that matter to us. IKN has filtered the list via two criteria:

mining or junior mining companies

company made a loss in 2008 (bar Mansfield, that returned a very slight paper profit)

The result you see is the number of mining executives amongst those that pulled in $1m or more in the region that need rotten eggs and flour thrown at them as soon as they give you the "Yeah, well, 2008 was a hard year for everyone, but ..........." line.

Special applause for Rick! of course, but the real biscuit-taker is Robert Friedland, who not only heads the list but manages to make it there twice thanks to Ivanhoe Mining and Ivanhoe Energy (that between them lost $233m last year). What a player, Robbie! Your shareholders must feel so very proud of you!

Congratulations to Colossus Minerals (CSI.to) that has finally managed to return an amazing three drill cores results totalling a mouthwatering 900m or so after having a measly three rigs operating at the Serra Pelada site for close on three months*. Here's the PR.

So here are a few thoughts to chew on:

Before you start drooling and salivating about the high gold and PGM returns (and for sure those numbers look sexy, don't they?) think about just how much of the goodstuff is concentrated in one thin band.And what do you know about the host rock? You think it'll be easy underground mining? Think again, and bigtime.

If you don't know what "excludes intervals of no core recovery" means you shouldn't even be looking at the stock, let alone justifying your expensive an erroneous purchase to yourself, and even less evangelizing it to other suckers.

Why aren't the drillhole location maps available today, as is normal protocol? Why does the company want us all to stare at numbers like 27m @ 35g/t Au (which we always knew existed) without showing us the positionings? Why will the maps only be on site "shortly"?

Why didn't they bother setting out a table for hole SPD-022? Guys, you're allowed to drill dusters, it's part of the game. It's only when you're doing a smoke'n'mirrors show for retail suckers that you start feeling threatened by non-returning holes.

Remember, this is the kind of outfit that believes The Albatross is an asset to the company. That can only mean KY Jelly somewhere along the line for the little guys cos people like Paddy don't give a damn and will do you over eventually. Process begins today.

Bottom line: don't buy the bullshit, don't believe the hype. Don't go long CSI.to. Don't go short CSI.to. Just avoid. Like the plague.

6/3/09

Every once in a while this investment game, normally a headscratching pursuit of fear, greed, doubt and hindsight, suddenly becomes very very easy indeed. That's because every now and again you get to see in advance the exact day when a a market-turning event is going to happen and can plan for it accordingly.

Thanks to eagle-eyed reader MR, today we can note that the Peruvian stock market is about to reach its peak price in around two weeks' time and will then become the raging short opportunity of the year. Here's the link MR sent on and here are the first couple of paragraphs:

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The first Peruvian Exchange Traded Fund will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange by the “middle of June,” said the chief executive officer of Global X Management Company LLC, a New York-based asset manager.

“The stock market has risen a lot, investors are bullish, and that’s helping us because we want our product to be liquid,” Bruno del Ama, the New York-based CEO of Global X, said in a phone interview. ‘We’re giving access to the Peruvian market and in the future people can go short in Peru, which is an option that doesn’t exist today.’’

Bet your watch that the Lima locals will run the bourse up and make sure all newbies into the market will make an investment they'll remember for a long time.....

Getting snarky at Rick! van Alphabet would be just too damned easy today after the way he awarded himself one point one eight five million stock options at $5.25 on Friday. You do realize this comes out of the quarterly expenses, yeah? If you're a shareholder in this never-to-mine-an-ounce-ever company you're paying for his legal theft through your back pocket. Anyway, like I said, I'm not going to mention a word about him, his company his trickeries and lies nor point out the pummelling the stock is taking at market today after being pumped to high heaven in New York last week. Not a word.

Let's go with some LatAm names outside of mining that we haven't visited for a while and put a few charts up, too. Now for sure all these things are getting checked back today, but we're taking a slightly wider view just for once. No minutae of intraday.

Telecom Argentina (TEO) down 2.3% at $9.86 TEO has always been my idea of about the best run company on the Merval index. It keeps churning out growth and profit, too. It hasn't done much more than track the general index since the big rebound, but when you're up against foreign behemoths such as Tenaris and Petrobras it has nothing to be ashamed of, really.Cosan (CZZ) down 14.1% at $5.22. Hey, remember the fool who didn't buy CZZ at $3.85 cos he wanted $3.60 or something? Yeah, that fool tis I. Errar humanum est, but CZZ has made great strides recently. With crude back in the high 60s the buzz is back in the LatAm ethanol business, by the way. We talked a bit about this in the last IKN Weekly.Ecopetrol (EC) down 4.1% at $22.78. EC is another recent winner in the world of (relatively speaking) bigcap LatAm plays. The company is run well, and that's always good. The Colombian oil patch (not just EC) is quickly turning into a hot story down here, in fact. DYODD.Petrobras (PBR) down 7.5% at $41.52. Petrobras is everyone's idea of the biggest oil company down here. Well it gets dwarfed by PDVSA, but let's not worry about that one, as PBR is still a big player getting bigger. The rumblings, rumours and positive anticipation is back about the subsalt oil reserves that caused all that hype last year, too.

Finally, a bit of mining. Southern Copper (PCU) down 7.2% at $21.70 and Freeport (FCX) down 7% at $52.90. Both stocks down (along with copper....ahem) but both have had great recent runs. Here's a chart with FCX, PCU and the S&P500 index together but on a shorter timescale than the above charts. This one is just the last two months.You'll also note I've added the 10 day "Williams %R" as technical analysis to this chart. I don't have a freakin' clue as to what it is but it sounded good on the menu bar so I put it in. Ask Gary or Trend&Value if you want to know more...they care about this guff.

Answer: Both countries are in recession but only one of them has a decent, well-run and reliable statistics office.

Colombia's official statisticians hang out at a place called DANE and it's one of the three stats offices on this continent that are always good to take at face value (the other two are Chile and Brazil, by the way). Other stats offices are either too small to worry about (e.g. Bolivia), push the window sometimes without really lying (e.g. Venezuela) or are just plain liars (e.g. Argentina, Peru). Here's Reuters in Spanish this morning on Colombia's ministerial admission that recession has arrived. I couldn't find any English language links yet so the first paragraph is translated.

UPDATE1 Colombia Economy may have entered into Recession

Bogota, June 3 (Reuters)The Colombian economy may well have entered into recession with a drop in GDP of 0.7% in the first quarter, a similar figure to that registered in the last quarter of 2008, Minister of Finance Oscar Iván Zuluaga admitted Wednesday.

If it weren't for the integrity of DANE, Zuluaga would not be out there admitting recession, be in no doubt. If he could get away with the deception and lies of Twobreakfasts he'd do it like a shot, especially when you consider what he said just six months ago:

Nov 23rd 2008: Neither recession nor financial crisis in Colombia, said the Ministry of Finance, Oscar Iván Zuluaga in an economical forum in Cartagena de Indias last week. The Minister, cited by Portafolio, the Colombian magazine on economics, said that the national economic is preserved from the global financial crisis due to a better domestic fiscal scenario, and that Colombia is the second Latin American nation with biggest private investment related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The events of last weekend were monumental in significance for the Obama presidency and for the ever-rising credibility of the sane and right-thinking right wing, so we should take a closer look at what happened:

Rush Limbaugh was attending the "Freedom First!" conference in Washington DC with a group of other non-reactionary, non-polemic right wing intellectuals (Pat Buchanan, Dick Cheney etc)

Rush remembered that Barack Obama had decided to make this weekend's Presidential Radio Address a live version from the White House, so at the DC conference issued a challenge to Obama to make the airtime into a debate over policy and ideology.

Obama was told about this and quickly replied: "Yes of course. The conference speakers can come over and we'll set aside the airtime for an in-depth debate between their team and our team. This is good for the democratic process".

But Rush didn't like that idea and shot back, "No! Just you and me, Barack. Rush versus Obama in a live debate that will show the world just how wonderful I am."

Obama refused the debate. "Look dude. Time to get real. I've offered you a platform to debate policy with my team but a one-on-one with me just ain't gonna happen. I'm the POTUS, for cryin' out loud! I'm Major League, you're in the AAAs."

Limbaugh refuses the team debate, calls Obama a coward and claims moral victory. "How dare he refuse my offer? What he did was against all forms of free speech."

Conclusion: If all this sounds weird and confusing, dear IKN Reader, just swap the name Barack for Hugo, Rush for Mario, Washington for Caracas and that's exactly what went on last week. Mario Vargas Llosa is a dickhead. The end.

An interesting article from Platt's today that gets some Chinese copper expert dude on the record about the metal. By way of analysis, I'm going to tutn away from my usual cynical non-trusting self, make a leap of faith and assume what the anonymous source inside the subsidiary of a Chinese Copper giant says is true. If so;

China's copper consumption is expected to top 5.8 million mt/year in2010, up from a projected 5.2 million in 2009 and 4.9 million in 2008,following heavy investment in the power sector by the government, a JinruiFutures Co. official said Tuesday. "The Chinese government is to spend Yuan 1.5 trillion [$189 billion] onpower networks and basic infrastructure construction [before end-2010], thekey copper consuming industries, which we think can stimulate copper demand inChina," a Jinrui official said. Jinrui is a subsidiary of copper giant JiangxiCopper. Analysts said the government's plans of completing the ultra high voltagepower network by 2015 would have positive impact on domestic copperconsumption by 2010. "Apart from growing demand for copper by the power industry, we are alsooptimistic about future demand by the domestic automobile industry, given therecent rise in car sales in China," the Jinrui source said. The power sector accounts for 40-50% of China's copper consumption,according to state-run nonferrous metals research company Beijing Antaike. It predicted the sector would consume 2.6 million mt copper in 2010, upfrom a projected 2.35 million mt in 2009 and 2.2 million mt in 2008. Jinrui predicts China's refined copper imports in 2009 will exceed the1.456 million mt imported in 2008. "Total refined copper imports by China during the first four months ofthe year have already greatly exceeded half the total import volume last year,so the import figure for 2009 will surely be higher, even if volumes decreasein the next few months in the usual low summer buying season," the Jinruisource said. High imports over January-April was due mainly to arbitrage opportunitiesas well as State Reserve Bureau's copper purchases earlier this year, whichtrimmed domestic supply. China imported 1.066 million mt refined copper during the first fourmonths of 2009, up 106% from the same period in 2008, customs figures showed.--Joshua Leung, newsdesk@platts.com

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