New poll show tough re-election for Faso

Freshman Republican Rep. John Faso (right) and Democrat Antonio Delgado (left) are essentially
even among potential voters in a Monmouth University poll released on
Wednesday for the 19th Congressional District, which includes parts of
the Capital Region and stretches south into the Hudson Valley. less

Freshman Republican Rep. John Faso (right) and Democrat Antonio Delgado (left) are essentially
even among potential voters in a Monmouth University poll released on
Wednesday for the 19th Congressional ... more

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Freshman Republican Rep. John Faso (right) and Democrat Antonio Delgado (left) are essentially
even among potential voters in a Monmouth University poll released on
Wednesday for the 19th Congressional District, which includes parts of
the Capital Region and stretches south into the Hudson Valley. less

Freshman Republican Rep. John Faso (right) and Democrat Antonio Delgado (left) are essentially
even among potential voters in a Monmouth University poll released on
Wednesday for the 19th Congressional ... more

New poll show tough re-election for Faso

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ALBANY — U.S. Rep. John Faso is in a tough fight to secure a second term, according to a new poll.

The freshman Republican and his Democratic opponent Antonio Delgado are essentially even among potential voters in a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday for the 19th Congressional District, which includes parts of the Capital Region and stretches south into the Hudson Valley.

The Democrat's chances of picking up the seat improve among what pollsters identify as traditional midterm voters, with Delgado leading Faso by 48 percent to 45 percent. Based on another model that assumes a surge of Democratic voters, Delgado's lead grows to six percentage points — though that is still within the poll's margin of error.

Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said there is reason to expect turnout for the midterm election will be higher than usual, noting that voters who normally only participate in presidential elections have been taking part in special elections around the country for the last two years.

"This is not a typical year," Murray said.

He also questioned whether the barrage of attack ads against Delgado by outside groups supporting Faso have made a dent in the Democrat's popularity, as he has a net favorable rating of 15 percentage points. Conversely, voters are split on how they feel about Faso.

Green Party candidate Steve Greenfield garnered 1 percent of the vote across the three different polling models used by Monmouth, which could be a deciding factor if the race stays tight through Election Day.

A Siena Research Insitute poll released last month found Faso leading Delgado by 45 percent to 40 percent among "likely" voters, but that survey did not include the Green Party candidate.

The race was deemed a "tossup" in analyses in August from the websites CQ Roll Call and FiveThirtyEight.

Delgado, a Schenectady-born attorney who lives in Dutchess County, secured the Democratic nomination after winning a seven-candidate primary in June with 22 percent of the vote. He is also expected to appear on the Working Families and Women's Equality ballot lines.

Faso, a former state Assembly minority leader and unsuccessful 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate, is expected to appear on the Republican, Conservative, Independence and Reform party lines.

The partisan makeup of the district has shifted slightly since being shaped six years ago, when Democrats accounted for 31 percent and Republicans 33 percent. The district is now 32.4 percent Democratic to 31.7 percent Republican, with Independence Party and unaffiliated voters accounting for nearly 33 percent.

The potential voter model used by Monmouth includes anyone who voted since 2010 or is newly registered.