Lincecum gets exactly what he wanted, but he also assumes the greater risk

You have to hand it to Tim Lincecum, the guy who was “too small” and “too brittle” to be an impact pitcher in the major-leagues for very long.

With today’s verbal agreement on a two-year, $40.5 million contract, Lincecum broke a few salary records. For starters, the average annual value of $20.25 million is the most in team history, surpassing the $18 million that the two Barrys, Bonds and Zito, ever got in a contract. The $18 million that Lincecum will earn in 2012 shatters the record of $15 million, which Philly’s Cole Hamels agreed to last week, for the largest salary even given to an arbitration-eligible pitcher before he hits free agency.

Last September, I asked Lincecum if he might reject a long-term contract with the Giants because of the perennially weak offense. He said no, but added that he did prefer a shorter-term deal, because “I just don’t know how I’m going to feel five years from now, or three years. That’s why I’d kind of like to take things step by step.”

Lincecum specifically cited his now-completed two-year, $23 million contract as a model of what he might be after. You can read the story here to get the gist of his reasoning. Now, he has it. This new deal, which probably will not be announced until Lincecum comes to San Francisco for a physical next week, buys out Lincecum’s final two arbitration years and expires after the 2013 season. He then will be eligible for free agency.

There are two critical points here.

One, just because Lincecum reportedly turned down a five-year, $100 million deal does not mean he does not want to be a Giant long-term. It just means he didn’t want to sign for that many years at that dollar figure. It’s my understanding that the Giants and Lincecum’s agents discussed many contract scenarios, from very short to very long, but two years is where they found common ground.

Moreover, just because they signed a two-year deal today doesn’t mean they can’t do a longer-term contract before this one expires.

The second point: Lincecum is taking all the risk by going short on years (if accepting $40.5 million is considered “risky”). Pitchers get arm trouble, and though Lincecum’s health has not been an issue, he is mortal. He is bypassing the security of a longer deal in return for a potentially bigger payday down the road. If reports are true, Matt Cain is taking the opposite tack. He’s willing to accept a below-market, long-term deal in exchange for that security and stability. I’m told no deal is imminent with Cain.

The Giants’ risk on Lincecum is low. They are not saddled with a potentially crippling pitcher contract, and the worst that can happen is Lincecum walks in 2014 and the Giants have $25 million to spend elsewhere.

That said, the Giants should have plenty of money to play ball with Lincecum the free agent in 2014. Even if he and Cain consume $50 million of what should, by then, be a $140 million payroll (that no longer includes Barry Zito’s contract), they can build a pretty good team with the rest of the $90 million, particularly if younger players such as Brandon Belt, Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Kyle Crick, etc… pan out. They will be paid peanuts until they hit arbitration down the road.

So now, the talk of money is done for a bit. If you see Lincecum at FanFest on Feb. 4, congratulate him on the deal, suggest he make an appointment with Mitt Romney’s tax accountant and let him know you’d like to see him in a Giants uniform forever, if that’s how you feel.