WHAT HAPPENS NEXT / Staff shakeup expected in wake of loss

Ira Miller, Chronicle Staff Writer

Published 4:00 am, Monday, January 6, 1997

1997-01-06 04:00:00 PDT Green Bay, Wis. -- For the first time since George Seifert became the 49ers' coach in 1989, a second straight NFC Championship game will be played with San Francisco's team sitting at home.

Seifert's job is safe for 1997 -- you have Carmen Policy's word on that -- but

you can otherwise expect change in an organization that even Seifert admitted has acquired a reputation for "cannibalizing" itself when it fails to win the Super Bowl.

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In losing their NFC playoff semifinal to the Packers, the 49ers finished the season with an 0-5 record against the NFC's three top teams -- Green Bay, Carolina and Dallas.

Counting last year's playoff loss to Green Bay and the 1995 season-ending defeat to Atlanta that cost the 49ers home- field advantage for the playoffs, it could be argued that the 49ers have lost their last seven most telling games.

That streak means Seifert, 56, who has the best winning percentage of any coach in NFL history, won't get a contract extension and will go into the 1997 season as a lame duck. But Policy was unequivocal that Seifert would coach the team again next season. Such assurances might seem unnecessary in any organization but the 49ers, where insecurity is a way of life.

Asked whether Seifert was completely secure for the coming season, Policy answered: "Yes, unless he wants to quit, and then we'll have to discuss it. There's never been any thought of George not

fulfilling his contract, on his part or ours."

Policy was much less definitive about Seifert's future beyond next season. He said he would meet with the coach to discuss his "ultimate plans." In a midseason interview, Seifert said for the first time that he'd probably want to continue coaching beyond 1997, even if it were not with the 49ers.

History says lame-duck coaches tend to become ex-coaches, regardless of what happens during their lame-duck year. Bill Walsh, for example, was in the final year of his contract with the 49ers in 1988 and did not return as coach even after winning his third Super Bowl.

In his eight years as the 49ers' coach, Seifert's teams have won two Super Bowls and reached the NFC Championship game three other times. His overall record is 108-35, for a percentage of .755. He has won more games than any coach in 49ers' history.

That's all in the past.

As of today, Seifert and the 49ers head into the future with an unsettled quarterback situation. The offensive line is old and getting older. The running game is still missing. The defense, as it did virtually all season, let down at the most critical moment against the Packers.

Changes on the coaching staff are inevitable. Pete Carroll, the defensive coordinator, is expected to leave for a head coaching job. Marc Trestman, the offensive coordinator, is expected to leave whether he wants to or not. Walsh doesn't want to continue in the offensive consultant's role; Policy suggests an enhanced administrative presence for Walsh in 1997.

Add it all up, and it looks like an era is coming to an end. The 49ers may no longer be an "elite" team.

The 49ers are trying to paint a different picture.

Several of them suggested after Saturday's 35-14 loss to the Packers that they could have won. Offensive tackle Steve Wallace said, "It could have gone either way if we'd have had some breaks." Dwight Clark, the 49ers' director of football operations, said, "The ball bounces one way or the other, and we're OK."

Reality check, please.

The cold, hard fact is the 49ers got some breaks; in fact, without a couple of Green Bay screwups on kicking plays, the 49ers would not have scored at all, and the game easily could have been 35-0, or worse. On its own, the 49ers' offense crossed midfield just once.

"I don't see much difference between the team that needed recharging in '92 and '93, and this team after '95 and '96," Policy said. "So I see us kind of in line with where we were prior to putting together the Super Bowl team of '94. I don't have the same sense of urgency in terms of making changes that I sensed last year.

"I'm more optimistic about this team and our chances of improving it in certain key areas than I was last year. I felt that we had to do more last year."

Clark added that he did not expect "sweeping changes" in the off-season.

It is a picture of an organization in denial.

"I think (people) exaggerate our reaction," Policy said. "What'd we do last year? Think about it for a moment. Who'd we cannibalize?" (They fired special teams coach Alan Lowry and Seifert's administrative aide, Neal Dahlen, and brought back Walsh.)

"We make major efforts to improve ourselves after every (season), but I don't think it's a cannibalization."

Perhaps not. But the results of the last 13 months certainly make the downward spiral look like a trend. Take a closer look at the record this season: 4-0 against AFC teams, 6-0 against the dregs of the NFC West (the Saints, Falcons and Rams) -- and just 3-5 against the rest of the NFC. The 49ers are no longer able to beat the teams they have to beat.

The 49ers are at a crossroads.

"Eras end daily," said offensive tackle Harris Barton. "Coaches get fired. Players get waived. Players change teams. I don't think the days of the old Green Bay Packers and the old 49ers and the old Cowboys exist. If you think they do, then you're fooling yourself.

"This team had 22 new players. There are some guys on this team that are new the last couple of weeks, I don't even know their names. If you sit around and try and keep your team the same all the time, you get yourself in trouble. I feel like this organization, better than any other one, has been able to mesh new and old. The core changes, but the fundamentals stay the same."

Against Green Bay, the 49ers were done in largely by one problem that didn't occur much during the season (special teams) and two that did (running game and defense in the clutch).

The 49ers talk bravely about their running game, but against the Packers, their running backs rushed for 33 yards on 13 carries. At a critical moment, the 49ers called a quarterback sneak on 4th- and-a-foot at midfield, and Elvis Grbac didn't make it. That call showed no confidence in the running backs.

The defense had great stats, but also critical failures, all year. Against the Packers, after a 21- point deficit was trimmed to 21-14 in the third quarter, the 49ers' defense had its chance to make a statement. Instead, the Packers made it. They took the kickoff and drove 72 yards in 12 plays, most of it on the ground, for a clinching touchdown.

This followed the pattern of other 49ers' losses this year; the defense couldn't make a stop in overtime against the Packers or Cowboys, and was thoroughly beaten throughout two whole games against the Panthers. The 49ers allowed an average of 221 yards in their six games against the Saints, Falcons and Rams, and an average of 332.1 yards in their other 10 regular-season games.

Next year, the 49ers probably will have their fourth defensive coordinator in five years. With eight NFL head-coaching jobs open, Policy said he expects Carroll to get "at least a couple of (head-coaching) offers, and the odds are he'll take one of those offers." Carroll, however, has told friends he won't jump at the first offer unless it's the right job, because he believes if he's patient he has a chance to someday succeed Seifert with the 49ers.

At any rate, a well-placed source said the 49ers already have started informally contacting candidates to replace Carroll as defensive coordinator. One known to have been contacted is New Orleans' Jim Haslett, but there is no indication how high he is on the 49ers' list.

Another possibility, if Minnesota jettisons head coach Dennis Green, is Foge Fazio, Green's defensive coordinator. Fazio has close ties with Vinny Cerrato, the 49ers' player personnel director.

Trestman has one year remaining on his contract. Players privately have no confidence in Trestman; they have grumbled about his play-calling and the direction of the offense. The 49ers pushed Trestman hard for the University of Minnesota job, which went to Glen Mason.

Policy declined to discuss Trestman's status. But last year the 49ers fired Lowry; after losing the 1993 NFC Championship game, they fired linebackers coach Bob Zeman, and after losing the 1990 NFC Championship game, they fired running backs coach Al Lavan. Policy said only that fired Raiders coach Mike White would not be considered for the offensive coordinator's job. The rumor mill includes names like Sam Wyche and Green, both former assistants under Walsh.

Walsh's future also is unclear. He tried hard to maintain a low- key, background role and had to be pushed into becoming more active with the offense in the second half of the season. Walsh wants to remain in football, but he doesn't want to be involved in coaching. Policy wants to keep him with the 49ers next year, suggesting a bigger role in administrative matters with Clark and Cerrato.

After using their top picks in the last two drafts on J.J. Stokes and Israel Ifeanyi, it's clear the 49ers need some help in this area, but does Walsh still have the energy and enthusiasm for that? And is the 49ers' continued reliance on Walsh a case of looking back when they should be looking ahead?

"I want him around," Policy said. "I haven't talked to him in detail about it, but I think he'll be around the Niners next year."

Cerrato's status is uncertain, too. He was a top recruiter for Lou Holtz at Notre Dame; should Holtz take an NFL coaching job, he might want Cerrato with him again.

Of course, regardless of where the 49ers may be headed, it's important to keep in mind, too, where they have been. No team in the league has been as successful as the 49ers over the last 16 years, and only the Dallas Cowboys stand on the threshold of declaring themselves the team of the '90s.

"I don't think the 49ers are declining at all," Ron Wolf, Green Bay's general manager, said after Saturday's game. "I think they're a better team this year than the team we played last year. They're more or less the team that those of us who are striving to get good, model ourselves after, and since we have a huge 49er background here . . . certainly some of that has rubbed off.

"I think their offensive line was better this year. I think their backs are clearly better this year. Terrell Owens is an improvement at wide receiver. The defensive line was much better than the defensive line we played last year.

"Plus, they've got a little gem there, they've got something we're all seeking, that's that other quarterback . . . Those are the kind of problems I guess we'd all like to have."

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