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March 2, 2014

[Russia and the West find themselves on the brink of a
confrontation far more perilous than in 2008 over Georgia, Dmitri Trenin of the
Carnegie Moscow Center wrote on his blog, referring to Russia’s previous war.
The Ukrainian military, which has taken part in NATO operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan and partnered frequently with its Polish counterpart, is far
smaller than Russia’s. But if a confrontation should erupt, the Russians would
find that Ukraine’s forces are better equipped and trained than Georgia’s were.]

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine — Russian soldiers spread out across the Crimean
Peninsula on Sunday, taking control of military and civilian installations,
after Russian President Vladimir Putin secured authorization to send in more
troops as the Kremlin set the stage for a high-stakes international showdown
over the future of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s new Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, speaking at a
press conference Sunday in Kiev, said "This is actually a declaration of
war to my country.”

Yatseniuk urged Putin to pull back his troops. “If he wants to be
the president who started the war between two neighboring and friendly countries,
he is within just a few inches of his target. We are on the brink of disaster.”

Large convoys of Russian troops were seen moving on the highways
between Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is located, and Simferopol,
the regional capital.

The new government in Kiev announced it is calling up military
reservists, following Russia's decision to allow its troops to sent to Ukraine.
National police units were put on "high alert."

Russian soldiers are digging trenches at the narrow land crossing
between Crimea and rest of Ukraine, according to a report from BBC TV.

Hundreds of Russian troops appeared Sunday morning at the
Ukrainian army base at Perevalne in Crimea, as Ukrainians soldiers stood at the
gates in a tense standoff.

In Kiev, the head of State Security Council ,Andriy Parubiy, said
all Ukrainian reservists should report immediately to their mobilization
stations.

No shots have been fired in Crimea.

Russian media said that Ukrainian troops were not resisting.
Ukraine’s new interior minister Arsen Avakov Sunday denied reports of mass
resignations from the Ukraine army in Crimea, saying not a single officer has
abandoned his post.

In Moscow, police detained about 260 people who were protesting
against the intervention of Crimea Sunday. About 150 of them were put into
police vans outside the Ministry of Defense and more than 100 were detained
several blocks away at the Manezh, a plaza next to Red Square. The protesters
were taken seemingly randomly. One man was holding a blank sheet of paper. Another,
who identified himself as a journalist, was picked up as he was talking to two
women. Police left the women alone.

Moscow authorities gave permission for a march in favor of the
invasion of Crimea and shut off a central boulevard to make way for it later
Sunday.

On Saturday night, President Obama, who had warned Putin on Friday
against military intervention in Crimea, had an apparently tense 90-minute
telephone exchange with the Russian president.

Obama said that a refusal by Russia to send troops back to their
bases in Ukraine would “impact Russia’s standing in the international
community.” According to the Kremlin, Putin argued that Ukrainian
“ultranationalists” were threatening “the lives and health of Russian citizens”
in Crimea.

In Crimea and in cities across eastern Ukraine, where opposition
to Kiev’s new government runs high, Russia’s aggressive stance gladdened the
hearts of thousands of protesters. Russian flags were raised in Donetsk, and a
group of pro-government activists who had occupied the main government building
in Kharkiv
were beaten and routed by pro-Russian protesters. More than 100 were
reported injured.

But Ukrainian nationalist groups in the country’s west vowed to
mobilize against the Russian threat.

Russia and the West find themselves on the brink of a
confrontation far more perilous than in 2008 over Georgia, Dmitri Trenin of the
Carnegie Moscow Center wrote on his blog, referring to Russia’s previous war.
The Ukrainian military, which has taken part in NATO operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan and partnered frequently with its Polish counterpart, is far
smaller than Russia’s. But if a confrontation should erupt, the Russians would
find that Ukraine’s forces are better equipped and trained than Georgia’s were.

Still, Russia has worked since 2008 to improve
its military capabilities, through reforms and increased spending.

The pressure on Kiev, where a new government was sworn in Thursday
after the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, is intense. Vitali Klitschko,
leader of the UDAR party and a candidate for president, called for a general
mobilization to thwart the Russians.

On Saturday, Ukraine’s new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk,
called for “the government and authorities of Russia to recall their forces and
to return them to their stations. Russian partners, stop provoking civil and
military confrontation in Ukraine.”

Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said the Russian president
had not decided whether to use the authorization to send in more troops.

Putin may choose not to push the Crimean crisis any further, said
Mark Galeotti, a New York University professor and Russian security expert in
Moscow.

“Anything more than that would be trickier and messier,” Galeotti
said. “In classic Putin style, he’s increasing tension. He’s trying to make
sure Kiev understands it has to consider Russian interests in whatever
post-Yanukovych order emerges. I don’t think Russia wants to annex Crimea. It
wants to make sure its bases are protected and its client regions are given the
most autonomy they can arrange.”

Russia’s decision to authorize troops came in what appeared to be
a highly orchestrated series of steps, beginning with a plea to Moscow for
fraternal assistance from Crimea’s new leader. And it raises as many questions
about what kind of country Russia will become as it does about Ukraine.

Just last Sunday night, Putin was sitting in Sochi’s Fisht Stadium
for the Closing Ceremonies of the Winter Olympics. Thomas Bach, the head of the
International Olympic Committee, declared, “You send a powerful message from
Sochi to the world: the message of a society of peace, tolerance and respect.”

The next night, more than 400 Russians were rounded up in Moscow,
protesting prison terms for anti-Putin demonstrators. Later in the week,
opposition leader Alexei Navalny was put under house arrest for two months.

But the members of the upper house of Russia’s parliament, who
voted unanimously to give Putin a free hand to deploy troops to Ukraine,
appeared to be delighted. They also appealed to him to recall the Russian
ambassador to Washington, to show displeasure over what they described as
threats by Obama over Ukraine.

In Crimea, helmeted soldiers with military-style rifles, without
insignia and declining to state their nationality, stood guard at, or
encircled, government installations. Troops patrolled the airport in
Simferopol, which was closed to air traffic, and stood in front of the council
of ministers and regional parliament, where a Russian flag flew from the roof.
Soldiers also control the military airport at Belbek.

Earlier in the day, the new prime minister of the Crimea region,
Serhiy Aksyonov, appealed to Putin for help maintaining “peace and
tranquility.”

In short order, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that
“unidentified gunmen directed from Kiev” had tried to capture the Crimean
Interior Ministry headquarters. Calling the attempt a “treacherous
provocation,” Moscow said, “We believe it is irresponsible to continue whipping
up the already tense situation in the Crimea.”

Igor Aveytskiy, who was named by the Kiev government to serve as
chief of Crimea’s national police, said there was no attack.

“It’s all rumors, all lies,” said Mikhail Amirov, a member of a
pro-Russia self-defense militia on guard in front of the headquarters building

But Moscow apparently had the allegation it needed.

A committee of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament,
asked Putin to intervene. He made his request, and the Federation Council, the
upper house, promptly gave it unanimous approval. The authorization does not
limit the troops to Crimea but allows them to be sent to all of Ukraine.

On Saturday afternoon, 10 troop carriers, accompanied by armored
jeeps, arrived at the Ukrainian coast guard base in the resort town of
Balaklava and took up positions inside and outside the installation. Russian
Orthodox priests stood among the troops and sang hymns.

The Crimea regional government, dominated by pro-Russia deputies,
announced it would hold a referendum March 30 to decide among three choices: “to
retain its current status as an autonomous republic within Ukraine, to become
an independent state, or to become part of Russia,” according to the Russian
news agency RIA Novosti.

In Kiev, Klitschko called on the Verkhovna Rada, or Ukrainian
parliament, to renounce the agreement permitting the Russian navy to maintain
its base in Sevastopol.

Lesya Orobets, a member of the Rada and an organizer of the
protest movement, wrote on Facebook that “people who were no longer afraid of
their mad dictator” and were able to overthrow him — a reference to the ousted
Yanukovych — “should not be afraid of another dictator.”

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who helped
negotiate a 1994 memorandum on Ukrainian territorial sovereignty, tweeted
Saturday that there is “no doubt in my mind that Russia is violating its
commitments.”

In Kharkiv, police stood by as protesters swarmed into a building
occupied by activists who support the new government, beating their opponents
before hoisting Russian and Ukrainian flags. Tens of thousands of people
gathered in the morning to protest the Maidan revolution.

The assault on the building was “completely spontaneous,” said
Denis Levshinko, a sociology student who participated in the rout of the Maidan
activists. “We are all fed up with them. We united, and we chased them out.”

Many of the occupiers were taken captive and dragged onto the
street, where, forced to their knees, they apologized to the jubilant crowds.