“Whatever happens on March 29—a no-deal Brexit, a delay to the departure or some kind of agreement—the U.K. faces a slow but steady erosion to its position as the European center of looking after other people’s money….. However Brexit plays out, the U.K. fund management industry will be a long-term loser from the fallout.”

“Thursday’s about-face sounded alarms about a global slowdown that caught officials off guard.” On Thursday, the ECB “unveiled a new economic rescue package, citing a darkening outlook driven by a slowdown in China, fears that the United Kingdom will make a chaotic exit from the European Union and aftershocks from President Trump’s tariff wars.”

“Drawn by generous incentives and the opportunity to sell directly into a unifying Europe, the car industry became a poster child for inward investment.” Now the survival of this industry in the UK is at stake. Honda’s scheduled plant closing “comes after last month’s announcement of up to 4,500 job losses at Jaguar Land Rover and news that Nissan’s new X-Trail model is to be made in Japan, not Sunderland.” Furthermore, “Toyota and Ford have warned of negative consequences in the case of Britain editing the European Union without a negotiated deal.”

“Official figures from the Dutch investment agency show 42 companies relocated to the Netherlands last year citing Brexit as the reason. The investment has resulted in 1,923 jobs and €290m in investment. Sony and Panasonic have also announced plans to set up their European headquarters in the country.” But the good news may not last. “The Netherlands is likely to be one of the biggest EU losers from a hard Brexit given the close trading links between the two countries especially in fresh produce and the importance of Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port, to British trade.”

“Food shortages, sky-rocketing cheese prices, grounded airplanes, traffic jams, riots and yes, a repurposed Cold War-era emergency exit route for Buckingham Palace’s most famous 92-year-old wearer of colorful big hats, are just some of the warnings being sounded in Britain if the nation leaves the bloc it joined 46 years ago without securing a withdrawal deal with the EU that’s also acceptable to British lawmakers.”

“We can make a fresh start on Tuesday, and avoid the disaster of a no deal, by extending Article 50 to allow an honest reconsideration. Parliament and the people must level with one another about the detailed costs and benefits of EU membership and all sides must begin to recognise reality.”

“With less than four months left until the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29, May’s premiership and her deal to stave off a disorderly departure or a bid to stop Brexit are hanging by a thread. If she is toppled — and it is far from certain that she would lose a vote among all the party’s members of parliament — — could further complicate Brexit.”

“The chances of the U.K. canceling Brexit have just shot up.” JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr told clients, “the chances of no Brexit had doubled from 20% to 40%, the chances of the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal had halved from 20% to 10%, and the chances of an ‘orderly negotiated Brexit’ were down from 60% to 50%.”

The debate that begins Tuesday in the House of Commons “will be the most consequential parliamentary event for a generation…. The voting at the end of this five-day debate on 11 December will decide whether, and if so on what terms, Britain departs from the European Union or whether, perhaps, the issue will be returned to the voters for another referendum and for a possible democratic reversal of Brexit.” Ultimately, the best “choice will depend, in part, on how the domestic Brexit endgame evolves over the next week.”