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Expert DRAFTing Week 2

A how-to-guide to beating this week's snake drafts on DRAFT

by Dan Hindery, September 13Photo: Troy Taormina, US Presswire

DRAFT offers weekly fantasy contests with 5-man rosters (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE) and 0.5-point PPR scoring (the same as FanDuel). But instead of using a salary cap like other daily fantasy sites, teams are built through live snake drafts with 30-seconds per pick. The most common contest sizes are Head-to-Head, 3-Team, 6-Team and 10-Team.

This weekly article will feature positional breakdowns that rank and break down the top options at each of the three positions. In the positional rankings, we also list the value over replacement level at the position for each contest size. So for example, Tom Brady projects for 21 points. In a Head-to-Head contest his value over replacement is zero points because Aaron Rodgers also projects for 21 points. In a 10-Man contest, the replacement level quarterbacks are Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins who each projects for 18 points, so Brady's value over replacement in a 10-Man contest is 3 points.

In addition to the positional rankings and projections, we will rank every player for each of the four prime contest sizes in the following sections. In these sections, we will also go in-depth on Week 2 strategy for each of the four contest sizes.

Note:Early in the week, DRAFT only has full-slate contests available. Thus, the rankings will be for the full slate and include Thursday and Monday night players. It will be noted in the article where the post-Thursday strategy changes. In Week 2, there are no elite options in the Thursday or Monday games, so strategy and player values/rankings are more or less unchanged on the Sunday slate compared to the full slate.

The quarterback spotlight is understandably on the Green Bay-Atlanta and New England-New Orleans games this weekend. Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady and Drew Brees each have huge upside in games that Las Vegas expects to be shootouts. Of the four, Brady probably has the best matchup against a young New Orleans secondary that Sam Bradford shredded on Monday night.

Russell Wilson and Derek Carr would be obvious top options this week but for blowout concerns. Both are double-digit home favorites. Can the 49ers or Jets put up enough offense that Wilson and Carr will still be airing it out in the second half?

Taking a step back to look at the running back position from a season long perspective, there is a top tier of four running backs now that David Johnson is out for 2-3 months. Le'Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon III and LeSean McCoy are proven talents with impressive weekly production over their last 10+ games. They all run behind solid offensive lines and have pass-catching ability. Each should have a weekly floor of 20 touches and a realistic shot of hitting almost 30 touches in any given week. You really can’t go wrong rostering any of these backs on Draft and they look like a clear top-4 to me. Focusing back in on just Week 2, we need to try to separate these backs. Le'Veon Bell is probably going to be the first off the board in most drafts based upon how dominant he was last season. He is also a home favorite. While I like Bell this week, I have more respect for the Vikings defense than I do for the Dolphins defense. Thus, Melvin Gordon III is my top-ranked runner this week. Elliott and McCoy are strong plays despite having to go on the road and facing tough defenses.

If any back is going to emerge and join the top tier in the coming weeks, it is probably going to be one of the rookies. Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey were very impressive in their Week 1 debuts. Hunt and Fournette are solid options in 3-Man contests. Cook and McCaffrey are strongly in play in 6-Man contests.

In 3-Man or larger contests, Marshawn Lynch is my favorite RB2 target. I rank him 6th at the position, but he can probably be had much later in drafts. The Raiders are 14-point home favorites and are going to want to make Lynch’s home debut for the hometown team a memorable one. I’m also bullish on Ty Montgomery and will be targeting him heavily in 6-Man and 10-Man contests. He handled over 90% of the snaps last week and should again see heavy usage in a potential shootout against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defensive scheme forces a lot of throws underneath to the running backs and we’ve seen pass catching backs regularly have big fantasy games against the Falcons (like Tarik Cohen last week).

In 10-Man contests the options at the bottom of the board are unattractive, so the position should be the top priority in the first few rounds.

The 3-man top tier is Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans. While Brown is always going to be one of the top options, he has the toughest matchup against a tough Vikings defense and cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Jordy Nelson isn’t too far behind the top group. Atlanta has plenty of talent at cornerback, but Nelson proved again last week that he is basically matchup proof and the Packers will likely have to throw a lot to keep up with the Falcons.

Beyond the top four the picture is muddy. Brandin Cooks has a massive ceiling in his return to new Orleans. He is still working on his chemistry with Tom Brady however and carries some risk. Doug Baldwin has plenty of chemistry with Russell Wilson and has a nice floor this week. But his upside is questionable in a game where Seattle should be playing from ahead. Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill starred in Week 1 and should be hot commodities again this week. Keenan Allen didn’t put up big numbers, but also impressed in a difficult matchup against Chris Harris Jr, Jr. He’ll have a much more favorable matchup on Sunday.

Larry Fitzgerald should see an increase in targets after the David Johnson injury. The Colts defense was awful in Week 1. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have great matchups on paper, but might not get a lot of work in the second half if the Raiders build up a big lead. Michael Thomas is an interesting case. He’s the go-to receiver for Drew Brees and playing at home in a game that should be a shootout. But the Patriots have a knack for taking the opposing team’s top option away and Thomas is the obvious candidate this week.

If you’re playing the Thursday slate, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green are decent options in 10-Man and maybe even 6-Man contests despite tough matchups. Both should see plenty of volume.

In all other draft sizes, the focus this week has to be on locking up as many of the top running backs as possible. However, in Head-to-Head, you are guaranteed two of the four elite options. There doesn’t have to be as much of a rush to snag running backs early. Of course if you feel strongly about any of the backs this week, it is absolutely viable and advisable to snag your top-ranked running back with your first pick.

Personally, I like the idea of grabbing Julio Jones at 1.01 and trying to gain separation at wide receiver where the drop off from #1 to #4 is steepest. If my opponent grabs his top two running backs at 1.02 and 2.01, I can come back with Antonio Brown and my top quarterback and still know that my worst case is Le'Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy as my running back duo. Plus, while Melvin Gordon III is my top back, he probably isn’t for most people. So there remains a decent chance that I get my top options at both receiver and running back.

Similarly, if drafting second, I will be hoping my opponent grabs a running back first and I’m coming back with Julio Jones and Antonio Brown at the 1/2 turn. The floor for the top two receivers is so high and the weekly upside is also through the roof, so there is some separation there compared to the receivers ranked #4 and lower.

In a 3-Man contest, my top priority is making sure I don’t get shut out from the top-four running backs. If I take a wide receiver first overall, it’s entirely possible that the elite tier of backs would all be gone by the time it makes it back around to me at 2.03. At 1.01, it makes the most sense to lock in your top-rated running back. You know that either Jones, Brown or one of the top backs will make it back to you at 2.12 and Mike Evans will be there at 3.01.

At 1.02 and 1.03 the running back vs. wide receiver decision is much more difficult. From these draft positions, you are guaranteed at least one of the top four running backs even if you take Jones or Brown in the first round. There is certainly some attraction to trying to lock in an advantage at WR1. On the other hand, the idea of locking in two of the top backs and building an advantage at RB2 is also an attractive option.

6-Man contests are where we really start to see running back value come to the forefront. The WR2 and QB options in the final rounds are more attractive than the final few RB2 options, so it makes sense to try to lock up your two starting running backs in the first three rounds if possible.

We also start to see the top quarterback options become a bit more attractive as third round options. There is a small but noticeable tier drop after the top four or five passers.

6-Man contests are also big enough that it makes sense to start considering stacking your quarterback with his top target. Each of the top-6 passers also has a wide receiver ranked in the top-12, so there are plenty of strong combinations available.

The WR/TE position is also deep. Especially on the full slate where DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Golden Tate and potentially Odell Beckham Jr, Jr. (if healthy) add to the WR2 depth. Even on just the Sunday slate, there are big-name players in substandard matchups (Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, etc.) who should be available in the final picks and still possess decent upside.