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Microsoft's religious faith in Moore's Law has led it painfully astray twice in the past few years. One mistaken assumption damaged Vista. The other may make the company an also-ran in handhelds.

Here's how it works: Moore's Law says that with time, processors get both faster and cheaper. Processor cycles are cheap. Code software accordinglyfor power rather than for efficiency.

That was how Microsoft programmed both Vista and Windows Mobile. Both OSs were designed to run decently on the processors of the day, but optimally on faster processors of the future. Microsoft made the dangerous assumption that PC and handheld manufacturers would keep choosing the fastest affordable chips. That's happened with desktop CPUs but not with handheld CPUs or graphics hardware. And with Vista relying so much on graphical "wow," even a fast CPU doesn't cut it when paired with slow graphics.

Microsoft thought it was safe with its near-monopoly position in desktop PCs. Intel keeps churning out faster desktop processors, and nVidia and AMD are following suit with faster graphics cards. But the faster components actually have to make it into mainstream PCs for Microsoft's strategy to work.

Microsoft mistakenly assumed Intel and PC manufacturers wouldn't cut corners to keep prices down and wouldn't opt for underpowered integrated graphics on desktop PCs. But Intel decided to save money on a series of popular motherboards by using non-Vista-friendly integrated graphics instead of faster, dedicated hardware. Bending over backward to please Intel, Microsoft found a way to "approve" Intel's integrated graphics PCs for Vista, even though Vista didn't work properly on them. The result was a muddle of labels and a lousy user experience.

Microsoft is so dominant in desktops that its Vista misstep won't seriously damage it. But unless Microsoft gets a grip on the handheld chip situation, Apple, Google, and RIM will leave it behind.

Windows Mobile was designed with the same misguided assumption that chips would get faster with time. Much of Microsoft's PDA-centric OS was designed in 2003 and 2004, when the Pocket PC ran at 312 or 416 MHz. So Microsoft designed an OS that runs well on a chip equivalent to a 416 MHz Intel PXA270, assuming processors would just get faster from there.

But they didn't. And Windows Mobile runs with a visible lag on any device slower than 416 MHz, which means on most of the products in the market. On 200-MHz devices such as the ASUS P527, it's painful.Next: Marvell, Qualcomm, Samsung, and TI >

PCMag.com's lead mobile analyst, Sascha Segan, has reviewed hundreds of smartphones, tablets and other gadgets in more than 9 years with PCMag. He's the head of our Fastest Mobile Networks project, one of the hosts of the daily PCMag Live Web show and speaks frequently in mass media on cell-phone-related issues. His commentary has appeared on ABC, the BBC, the CBC, CNBC, CNN, Fox News, and in newspapers from San Antonio, Texas to Edmonton, Alberta.
Segan is also a multiple award-winning travel writer, having contributed...
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