I'd fight you to the death on this one. There is no way, this hobby is gaining in popularity. I think you're seeing the current generation investing more / not a new generation of collectors.

The hobby may not be growing, but the prospecting game absolutely is. I have been doing this for awhile, and there is zero doubt in my mind that it is growing. You make the claim that more and more people are ripping and flipping which will flood the market, and at the same time you say that there is no increase in the prospecting game. I hope you have 9 lives, because if you fight to the death over this one you may lose one.

True to a certain extent, but when Buxton is promoted and there's 400 active eBay listings of his chrome autos ... it will be hard to keep prices high. Potential buyers will already own his autos, so then who's left to buy?

That's why someone may sell part of their stash during a hot streak in the minors.

Well sure there will be cases where the two color autos will be Tyler Pike and Jake Odorizzi, but there will also be cases where you could get a Manny Machado Blue and a Taijuan Walker Gold. When it comes to color autos, everyone has an equal chance.

Very true. That would be a great case / depending on the base autos and the rest of it you'd likely come out ahead.

But not even at the current $1,2000 price-tag (although many are in for much much less than that)

That's why someone may sell part of their stash during a hot streak in the minors.

There are other times to sell and make money, not just at callup.

And I'm saying at all of those times, the market is flooded. There won't be any point in time where there's less than 30 Buxton base autos available on eBay if the print run is this high ... and that will keep prices down no matter how well the kid is doing.

The hobby may not be growing, but the prospecting game absolutely is. I have been doing this for awhile, and there is zero doubt in my mind that it is growing. You make the claim that more and more people are ripping and flipping which will flood the market, and at the same time you say that there is no increase in the prospecting game. I hope you have 9 lives, because if you fight to the death over this one you may lose one.

Heh, we'll lets just see how this shakes out. If on June 8th one month after release we're looking at high prices, I'll come back in here and declare my incompetence to understand this stuff.

I think many use a system to determine color value? Blue is 3x base I believe ... but for 2013 Bowman, I think Blue will be 5-7x base as a result of production.

I'd fight you to the death on this one. There is no way, this hobby is gaining in popularity. I think you're seeing the current generation investing more / not a new generation of collectors.

That's okay too. If 10 guys spend $10,000 each that's the same as 100 guys spending $100 each. Growth is growth. When the American economy goes up it's not due to population increases, it's due to the current population spending more money. It's a good parallel. Maybe the "card" economy is just good now even if physical numbers of collectors aren't necessarily growing. There is no doubt though that revenue and sales have gone up each year for Topps since 2010. Someone is buying.

__________________FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER FOR CASE BREAK RESULTS, PROFIT/LOSS REPORTS, AND GENERAL INSIGHT INTO THE SPORTS CARD INDUSTRY: http://www.twitter.com/auctionjmm

No no, I assume the positive. A higher print run will make the color autos more valuable / more sought after because there's a finite number of them. To me, that's the only positive here though / I see Bowman '13 flopping and thus turning people away from future releases (partly because the sour taste, partly because the money lost)

But I think you raise a good point / although I'm gonna twist it. I would absolutely love for the prospecting market to increase year in and year out but I think it's headed in the opposite direction.

IMHO, every new year brings LESS collectors (and less prospectors) to the table and thus printing more will not satisfy this demand. To me, the demands is already satisfied, and now will be over saturated.

It isn't a matter of print run IMO. Tavares is the most expensive auto from 2012 Bowman. Unlike Bell, JBJ, Cole, Xander, and a few others, his base wasn't tiered/SPed. If print run was the overwhelming factor you seem to think it is, guys like JBJ and Xander would be more expensive than Tavares.

__________________
Those who can, do. Those who can't resort to calling other people trolls.

It isn't a matter of print run IMO. Tavares is the most expensive auto from 2012 Bowman. Unlike Bell, JBJ, Cole, Xander, and a few others, his base wasn't tiered/SPed. If print run was the overwhelming factor you seem to think it is, guys like JBJ and Xander would be more expensive than Tavares.

No sir ... I think Taveras would be more expensive if he we're tiered. (And if there wasn't one guy who owns so many that there aren't as many readily available)

The man has been compared to Albert Pujols and doesn't strike out. I feel he deserves to have his current value, and if he we're SP'ed, you'd see $200 autos ...

Zero Festus. Initially, I wasn't buying because I didn't feel the base value was good enough to make a profit (RC's like Harper, Darvish, Cespedes add great value you can't find in Bowman '13). For me, there's more value in base than in autos when breaking large quantities.

Bowman is a set I'd likely never break, and the print run of this year seals that IMHO.

As someone pointed out, the purported odds are about the same as two years ago. So there may be a higher print run than last year? Bfd. 2011 base and autos are still worth some greenbacks. The marketplace will adjust to whatever the print run is and there will still be plenty of room for people to make money if they buy and sell the right guys at the right time. All the comments speculating that the market will be saturated or that base will be virtually worthless are enormous exaggerations in my opinion.

Bowman is a set I'd likely never break, and the print run of this year seals that IMHO.

Thats a shame. You are missing out if you skip it every year. I actually have ended up with better results from Bowman than I have from Draft every year but 1. Maybe I have just been lucky. Or did you skip it because you have no more room in your house for cards? I'm sure with all of the people you bought base from out of draft you must be stacked to the ceiling.

Thats a shame. You are missing out if you skip it every year. I actually have ended up with better results from Bowman than I have from Draft every year but 1. Maybe I have just been lucky. Or did you skip it because you have no more room in your house for cards? I'm sure with all of the people you bought base from out of draft you must be stacked to the ceiling.

The numbers just don't add up for me with Bowman. Too many cards, too much veteran paper / I have trouble finding the value.

No sir ... I think Taveras would be more expensive if he we're tiered. (And if there wasn't one guy who owns so many that there aren't as many readily available)

The man has been compared to Albert Pujols and doesn't strike out. I feel he deserves to have his current value, and if he we're SP'ed, you'd see $200 autos ...

He would absolutely be more expensive if he were tiered. However, the fact that he's the most expensive card in the set despite having a significantly higher print run than other top prospects in the set demonstrates that talent/hype fuel the prices much more than print run. As others pointed out above, the top guys will command top dollar regardless of print run.

__________________
Those who can, do. Those who can't resort to calling other people trolls.

He would absolutely be more expensive if he were tiered. However, the fact that he's the most expensive card in the set despite having a significantly higher print run than other top prospects in the set demonstrates that talent/hype fuel the prices much more than print run. As others pointed out above, the top guys will command top dollar regardless of print run.

Couldn't agree more.

Hype/talent/team you play for are more important than print run of a base auto. Only talking about first chrome auto/base cards, not other stuff like Sterling, Platinum, etc.

Very true. That would be a great case / depending on the base autos and the rest of it you'd likely come out ahead.

But not even at the current $1,2000 price-tag (although many are in for much much less than that)

Several jumbo cases have sold for $1000-$1100 recently.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Zero Festus. Initially, I wasn't buying because I didn't feel the base value was good enough to make a profit (RC's like Harper, Darvish, Cespedes add great value you can't find in Bowman '13). For me, there's more value in base than in autos when breaking large quantities.

Bowman is a set I'd likely never break, and the print run of this year seals that IMHO.

This years rookie class does not have the Harper/Darvish headliners but is much deeper then last year. Bundy, Machado, Ruf, Eaton, Cingrani, Olt, Shelby Miller, Profar, Garcia, Skaggs, Ryu, etc...is a damn good class.

Zero Festus. Initially, I wasn't buying because I didn't feel the base value was good enough to make a profit (RC's like Harper, Darvish, Cespedes add great value you can't find in Bowman '13). For me, there's more value in base than in autos when breaking large quantities.

Bowman is a set I'd likely never break, and the print run of this year seals that IMHO.

True, there is no Harper/Darvish in this class, but there are plenty of people that will outsell Cespedes.

True, there is no Harper/Darvish in this class, but there are plenty of people that will outsell Cespedes.

Not on a base card level. Not talking about autos here ... base RC cards.

I can move Cespedes paper at .50 per. There won't be a single RC in this class that sells for half that / partly because these aren't true RC's like Harper, Darvish Cespedes. None of these guys have made an impact in the game yet ...

Not on a base card level. Not talking about autos here ... base RC cards.

I can move Cespedes paper at .50 per. There won't be a single RC in this class that sells for half that / partly because these aren't true RC's like Harper, Darvish Cespedes. None of these guys have made an impact in the game yet ...

Not on a base card level. Not talking about autos here ... base RC cards.

I can move Cespedes paper at .50 per. There won't be a single RC in this class that sells for half that / partly because these aren't true RC's like Harper, Darvish Cespedes. None of these guys have made an impact in the game yet ...

I would say Ryu, Machado and Cingrani all have a decent chance at .50 per.

I would say Ryu, Machado and Cingrani all have a decent chance at .50 per.

Ryu would be the best shot / but Cingrani is going back to AAA on Saturday / almost guaranteed (after his start against Milwaukee).

He was going back after his start today but Cueto bought him one more. Tony not pitching well today either so that's not gonna help the immediate RC value. (well, not pitching well to just one batter, but 4RBI for Soriano)