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Thursday, June 13, 2013

The three-year-olds have taken up half of our year, haven’t they? It seems like yesterday Itsmyluckyday upset Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. Then, in a blink, it’s June. It’s fitting the sophomores take up most of our attention as they carry us through a winter wrought with despair and an extra ten pounds of “insulation

There was a momentary second when Oxbow beat Orb where the wind was knocked out of our lungs in Baltimore, but when we had a moment to catch our breath we realized it wasn’t all bad. There are silver linings around every turn. There’s always another race.

I might be in the minority here after the Triple Crown dust has settled and turned into mud that Oxbow is the top three-year-old.

Did you hear about the one when the horse won the race in the mud with the hot pace? Let’s break down our prized Derby some more.

Mike Smith, unbeknownst to him, sat on a loose cannon. Palace Malice got blinkers that, in effect, gave PM an extra edge. But it’s what Smith said leading up the Belmont that was of particular interest. He noted that with the track sealed at Churchill, it sounded like firecrackers were going off. With 19 horses pounding (19 x 4 = 76, phew) 76 hooves into that highway, it scared PM. He ran like his tail was on fire.

He sets typical Derby fractions normally reserved for the sprinter-who-doesn’t-belong-in-the-race. You remember Keyed Entry and Spanish Chestnut. PM tugged several horses with him.

This set up beautifully for the favorite, Orb. He won the one race he was supposed to win. It was the one he had the most control over, among all that chaos, it was his race to lose.

Golden Soul, the Derby’s second-place finisher, threw in a flat-soda effort in the Belmont and Revolutionary, third in the Derby, did what he does by running a fifth in the Belmont. He’s a good horse. That’s it. Both these horses had five weeks off to validate Orb’s win. If Orb has lost his standing he can thank those clowns.

Oxbow is a Lot Better Than People Give Him Credit For

We remarked here that Oxbow was about as gutsy a horse as there was. This was back in February and March. He reminds me a lot of Shackleford; just a hard-knockin’ horse with a heart the size of a Volkwagen.

He got an easy lead in the Preakness and did what he was supposed to do on that lead. Gary Stevens proved that talent trumps age. He was also up on a swift pace in the Belmont and hung on heroically for second beating Orb a second time head-to-head. The best part is, he didn’t skip the Preakness either. You can’t say he was fresher because he ran in the same races.

Palace Malice is a Lot Better Than People Give Him Credit For

Let’s pause a moment and reflect on his Derby. We all agree he set those crazy fractions and faded. But he didn’t fade that far. He only faded to 12th. Think about that for a second. He beat seven other horses while fighting on.

Sure, he—along with everyone else at Big Sandy—was limping home, but given the fast track and the blinkers off, it should come as no surprise that he was near the top. In this case he was the top.

And who should be right there? Oxbow. Oxbow finished six places ahead of Palace Malice in the Derby after being in the same orbit as PM on the pace. Oxbow finished a diminishing second in the Belmont while not being granted the five-week layoff PM had.

To sum, Oxbow is No. 1. Orb is No. 2, and Palace Malice is not as bad as everyone once thought he was. I tell you, this is going to be a fun summer.

It’s alright if love me, it’s alright if you don’t, I’m not afraid of you running away, honey I get the feeling you won’t? Oxbow the top 3 yr old over Orb?

Oxbow won the Preakness that’s really good. The only other stake race he won is the Lecomte. I betcha only one fan out of the six and a half fans left in the sport have even heard of the Lecomte.

Orb won the creme de la creme Kentucky Derby(how can this be overrated) which had the strongest field of 3 yr olds ever assembled for it’s first year with a qualifying point system remember? Orb also won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby at a real track called Stronach Gulfsteam Casino Shopping Mall and Racetrack. He won on a fast dry track there so he’s not all about mud. He won with a slow pace there so it’s not all about a fast pace.

Does it really matter who is the top 3 yr old now anyway? This stuff will sort it’s self out in the Summer right? Unless Normandy Invasion wins the Travers and Verrazano wins the Haskel. Then we’ll have a bigger mess than Corrow’s local beverage store being out of Fosters, right?

Not to change the subject but we lost the great Sir Henry Cecil the other day. He ironically trained Royal Anthem the grandsire of Palace Malice. He also trained arguably the greatest horse to ever grace the turf Frankel. What a way to go out.

R.I.P. Henry and say hello to Bobby for me. The beat goes on with lyrics by Don McLean. Maybe I should stop with these silly lyrics after commenting. Give me the breakdown you six and a half fans, should I stop? I wish I knew how to copy and paste, it’s hard remembering the lyrics at my age.

A long long time ago
I can still remember how
That music used to make me smile
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance
And maybe they’d be happy for a while
But February made me shiver
With every paper I’d deliver
Bad news on the doorstep
I couldn’t take one more step
I can’t remember if I cried
When I read about his widowed bride
But something touched me deep inside
The day the music died
So

Bye, bye Miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
Them good ole boys were drinking whiskey in Rye
Singin’ this’ll be the day that I die…

Verrazano’s a lock in the Haskell. Seems suited to his running style and would be Pletcher-esque to go there and win like Bluegrass Cat pack in 2006.

Yeah, I’ll give you that Orb has won bigger named races over the course of the pre-season, but head-to-head, it’s Oxbow 2, Orb 1. We’ll see.

Normandy Invasion might be scary once freshened up.

On another note ... sorry to see our man Ramon retire. Unless his body is hanging by a thread, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him. Look at what Gary Stevens did this year. If Ramon is truly done, he’s the Sandy Koulfax of jockeys, giving us one of the greatest late-careers we’ve seen.

Cat,
“American Pie” is on of those songs like “Taxi” and “Time in a Bottle” that generate a tingling feeling when listened to—unique originals—nearly impossible to relyricise.

Right now Orb is the leading 3YO based on a variety of point systems. You’re right about the strength of the field Orb beat in the Derby, but PM just beat the top 3 finishers and others from that day, and track conditions were not neutral for any of the classics.

IMO Orb needs more time between races, so I doubt we’ll see him in both the Haskell and the Travers, but rather in the Travers and either the Jockey Club Gold Cup or BC Classic. If he wins any of the three, he’ll be a strong candidate for 3YO champ since that will take multiple G1 wins at more than 9 furlongs.

I expect the fields for the summer G1 routes at 9 furlongs, e.g., the Haskell, Whitney, and Woodward.
to be large and contentious, but unlikely to produce the 3YO champion unless one of those contestants also wins the Travers, Pacific Classic, JCGC, or BC Classic. The Cigar and the Clark might turn out to be tie-breakers.

It’s possible the eventual division leader has yet to run in a G1 stake as a 3YO. If a 3YO wins the BC Classic, and no 3YO wins more than 1 G1 at a classic distance, should that be sufficient to earn the title?

Denny, don’t think we’ll ever see the Janneys or Phipps running in another match race for obvious reasons.

I, Orb, Oxbow and Malice will point to run in the Travers and a win will clinch the division title. Don’t see any of these 3 yr olds beating elders in the JCGC or BC right now.

B, that is sad news that Ramon has to retire. Talk about the day the music died.

I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news
But she just smiled and turned away
I went down to the sacred store
Where I’d heard the music years before
But the man there said the music wouldn’t play
And in the streets the children screamed
The lovers cried, and the poets dreamed
But not a word was spoken
The church bells all were broken
And the three men I admire most-
the Father, Son, and the Holy Ghost-
They caught the last train for the coast
The day the music died…

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