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One of the most important forces shaping the investment climate is that the US is closer to beginning to normalize monetary policy than other major countries and regions. That gap may be measured in years, not months or quarters, and has not reached the apogee. The Federal Reserve will likely hike rates in the next six months, while other major…

The Investment Climate: Where We Stand
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
April 30, 2015
Rating: 5

The euro pullback spurred by the Federal Reserve statement that continued to regard the slowdown as having to been partly caused by transitory factors, was seized upon in Europe as a new buying opportunity. Support is seen near previous resistance in the $1.1050 area. The euro extended its recovery, rising to almost $1.1250. The retracement obj…

The Federal Reserve stuck to its position. The weakness of in the US economy "during the winter months" was partly a reflection of transitory factors. The Fed keeps the focus on economic data and does not provide fresh clues into the timing of its lift-off. The dollar, which was on or near its lows before the Fed's statement is bo…

The sharp advance in the euro, through the top of the month and a half long range has thrown many participants for a loop today. The big overweight position as short euros and long the DAX. Both positions appear to winding dramatically today. What is next for the euro? Some observers, many who mistrusted the dollar in the first place, say the …

Press reports suggest that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is considering unconventional monetary policies, including direct purchases of local government bonds and/or some sort of long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) using local government bonds as collateral. While there is no universal definition of QE, we m…

PBOC QE ? Not So Fast
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
April 29, 2015
Rating: 5

The US economy essentially stagnated in Q1, with the economy expanding 0.2% at an annualized rate. The Bloomberg consensus was for a 1% expansion, but we warned of downside risks. The dollar, already under pressure, fell further. The euro has took out the $1.1050 level and sterling has moved above $1.54. The dollar failed to sustain gains abov…