3D: Why a new Xbox is coming sooner than later

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This 3D (Dirty's Digital Diatribes) editorial is fairly
straightforward... I predict the new Xbox, whatever it may be called,
will be announced before years end and furthermore will be available
sometime (probably second-half*) in 2010.

It was one simple comment on our recent tour of AMD's facilities
during Neowindex in Austin, Texas... "Wait until you see the next
generation of consoles." The comment itself was harmless enough
and was made in a very blase fashion. I feel I am undeniably
obligated to state for the record that not once was the 360 even
mentioned during the much larger overall conversation we were having
when this comment was indeed made. Needless to say, nine simple words
sparked my imagination. After a few days to mull it over, even if this
comment had nothing at all to do with the Xbox which it very well
might not have, I am still now convinced it is inevitable that we
will see a new Xbox sooner than later. Here is why...

Phooey To Those Who Say It's To Early For A New ReleaseBeing so dominant in the computer world for so long now,
Microsoft
already has deep-seeded roots in a culture where people are willing
to spend anywhere from $150 to $450 on a new graphics card, just
one singular component of a PC. As such, I am thinking the way they
see it, why would people not be willing to upgrade to an entirely
new console for around the same amount of money? The 360 is
after-all already going to be four years old this November, and lets
not forget, the first Xbox launched in November of 2001. Yep, that
just four years prior to the 360's launch.

Still, plenty of people would definitely be upset by the news of
a new console for a plethora of different reasons. Number one being
that for whatever reason, people see consoles as being immune to the
plague that affects all other technology: once something is released
it is already dated. I believe Microsoft knows this is the mindset,
and the main reason I believe they are going to be able to pull off
the release of a new console in the mind of many consumers "so
soon" is because for the first time...

New Games Will Have Scalable Graphics (at least for awhile).Anyone who has played a game on the PC knows that most games
have, for awhile now, included an Auto-Detect option that will detect
your system's components and change the graphic settings for the game
accordingly. Admittedly, the Auto-Detect settings are almost always
never right, but when you only have two systems you need to detect
for, it makes a developers job that much easier. By doing this, they
will not be abandoning the 360 and people will indeed still be able
to play new game releases. Only difference being is this time around
they will be providing consumers with an option (and believe you me
their marketing people will make sure to reiterate that
"options" fact over and over) to play new game releases
either on the new console with better graphics and resolution, or on
their current 360 with the same graphics they have come to know and
love. Again, this is yet another concept with roots in the already
established PC gaming market, just replace one singular component with
an entire console.

Taking this approach, after a few years Microsoft could kindly
"suggest" to developers that for Triple-A titles to drop
development for the 360 completely. This would be the exact opposite
of how they handled things with the Xbox to Xbox 360 transition where
they virtually dropped development almost instantly. Doing so would
keep plenty of nay-sayers happy for at least a good time to come.

But What About Blu-ray?Naturally, the concept of better graphics then leads to the
question "Will Microsoft then decide to support Blu-ray?"
Well my first response would be perhaps. I do not see that as being
completely out of the question. Perhaps even some sort of external
solution would be an option as other companies seem to see that as a
plausible and viable option. However, a more plausible scenario is
that the resources needed to support higher resolutions, etc.,
especially when there are only two configurations to support (360 and
new console), will actually still be able to fit on current
dual-layer DVD's. The two different configuration would already share
so many common resources, and it is indeed only the graphical elements
such as textures, etc., that would need to have two "versions."

Let's just say for the sake of argument that they could not fit
everything on a current dual-layer DVD. With the now introduced
option to install to hard-drive (again from PC world), especially on
a 250-320 GB drive which is the most common-sense size to be in the
next generation of consoles. Would it then really be that big of a
deal if a game did indeed require two disks if you only needed one
disk to play after you were able to install the game itself? Finally,
there is still the possibility that games can indeed be delivered by
means of digital downloads , although I personally just do not see a huge company such
as Microsoft strictly relying on a method of distribution that
still has a long way to go before it is the absolute standard.

PC Graphics Are Just That Much BetterWe all know the above subtitle in bold has always been the case,
it goes without saying if you know anything about gaming. However,
since we are talking about better graphics and resolution, one cannot
deny or dismiss the fact that PC graphics are really, really starting
to make the 360 (and PS3 for that matter) show how weak and
not-so-capable they actually are in this department. Truth be told, a
capable PC could have shown both consoles graphical inferiority on Day
One of each consoles release. Going back a few years to their release,
the not all that informed public was simply just mesmerized by the
fact that their newfangled HD TV was able to play games in HD itself.

Keeping in mind that for better or for worse, the modern day
gamer is obsessed with graphics, I cannot help but think Microsoft is
not only aware of this fact, but they also simply want to stay
competitive in this area. Case in point, two games that are fairly
recent releases that stick out to me as examples of superior graphics
are F.E.A.R. 2 and Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena.
Both undeniably look dramatically better on a well equipped computer,
and to reiterate, I believe Microsoft are smart enough to know people
are either already realizing this fact and / or will start realizing
it more and more as time goes on.

Also lets face it, the current generation of consoles was and
still will be about the "HD gaming experience." One cannot
ignore that none of the Triple A titles are running at the superior
1080p, and none probably ever will on this current generation (and
note I do say Triple-A titles, yes there are indeed some games that
are 1080p native, most notably XBLA and PSN releases. So for a
"true HD gaming experience," they need better more capable
GPU's. Plain and simple. I can notice the difference in a 720p
Blu-ray compared to a 1080p one, and I am sure I am not the only one.
If game graphics can be at 1080p, and in a perfect world even run at
a constant 60 frames per second, I am sure plenty of people would
definitely be interested in and in-fact desire this capability.

They Want To Put The Nail In Sony's CoffinSony has time and time again talked about the PS3's ten year
life-cycle. While it is a noble crusade, and one that many support at
least in theory for their wallets, unfortunately it is just not a
realistic one, mainly for the reasons I pointed out above about no
games actually being capable of full-blown 1080p HD. Sure, perhaps
Sony can help developers squeeze some more power out of the Cell
processor. Sure, graphics on the PS3, just as the 360, do currently
look pretty damn good, but why not make them look even better if
possible? Also lets face it, the PS3, just as the 360 in all
fairness, are definitely limited in the GPU department to pull true HD
off, as already outlined above.

While I have no doubt Sony is already working on their next
console as well, I just do not think they are as far along as
Microsoft is on their next console - not even close actually as they
had a fairly well documented struggle getting the PS3 off the ground
itself. I just cannot help but think that Microsoft sees this as a
perfect opportunity to deliver a potential KO punch and put Sony down
for the count, perhaps even for good.

The Experience ItselfWe have to keep in mind that Microsoft already have done a major
overhaul to the 360's OS itself with the launch of NXE. They are
going to continue building and improving on NXE naturally, but they
just as NXE's current name implies, Microsoft are indeed all about
the new experience. As such, I believe that NXE will indeed be the
last major overhaul to the 360, but Microsoft is and definitely will
be itching to release a completely new experience sooner than later:
Specifically one that capitalizes on social media and networking.
Expect plenty of partnerships to be announced and an even more social
experience than you currently can and do indeed enjoy on the 360.
Going back to possibly putting Sony down for the count, I do not
think that anyone can argue that Sony is almost embarrassingly behind
in this aspect with the PS3 currently, and if Microsoft can release
and even stronger social experience, that could indeed have the
potential to even further the distance between themselves and Sony as
the must-have console.

Thing is, I do not deny that Microsoft can and definitely will
continue to develop for the NXE, as they have an extremely solid
foundation to build upon. However, taking into account the way social
media and networking has and will more than likely continue to take
over aspects of our everyday computing lives, I think something else
to tie it all together is in the works. If you then also add in the
fact that the line between your computer and TV keeps getting blurred
more and more, I believe it all adds up to multiple top-tier
development teams somewhere deep in top secret labs in Redmond are
buried knee deep with the task of designing a brand new experience
that somehow ties it all together. Which then leads to...

* Marketing. Marketing. Marketing.This is perhaps the weakest reason for my prediction, but it
actually has the potential to be the strongest if you also believe
that companies live and die by their marketing departments. In
keeping with this theory, it is my belief that 2010 just has a great
ring to it. Simply put, 2011 does not. To further elaborate, I
believe Microsoft might even break the tradition of a November release
and go for an October release. Yep, that would be 10/10/2010. I can
literally see the higher-ups in any marketing department gathered in
a non-descript conference room giggling uncontrollably at the
potential to launch on this date.

To summarize, I believe Microsoft recognizes that they have
a unique opportunity to potentially overthrow Sony permanently and
secure their dominance in the console market. I also happen to
believe they are willing to take the potential risks and steps
necessary to seize the moment and try to indeed do just that, also
making the RROD of consoles past a distant memory. Will they announce
it as soon as E3? Highly unlikely. Truth is who knows when they will
announce it, but I do think for the reasons mentioned above, it will
be much sooner than anyone might have expected.

Comments (2)

Now thats a Epic Blog

Very insightful reading , It does seem like MS is holding
something close to their chest right now. Their First party lineup is
pretty weak this year reminds me of the months before 360 was
announced. I wrote a playfull little blog about some of the
Things I would like to see in the next console , although I
believe I goofed in processor dept. I personally hope they wait
atleast untill 2011 to release the next Xbox I dont see a
quantum leap in graphics even in the most high-end PC's yet by then
technology should be far enough along to make it really kick
ass. Perhaps with cloud computing element ?