Bill Kristol: Two sources tell me Giuliani’s running for president

posted at 7:20 pm on June 8, 2011 by Allahpundit

Actually, if you assume he’s not running to win, this isn’t all that crazy.

Rudy’s theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn’t compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he’ll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey…

Isn’t his abysmal 2008 campaign a disqualifier? Rudy’s answer: Consider the New York parallel. Rudy lost to David Dinkins in 1989, making several unforced errors and running without a focused message. In 1993, as the streets of New York plunged into crisis, Rudy ran a disciplined campaign pledging to turn the city around. He won, and in a disciplined first term, he governed successfully.

So, despite widespread perceptions that he’s yesterday’s news, and notwithstanding the growing power of tea partiers in New Hampshire, he’s going to sweep into the state and somehow defeat Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman and whichever grassroots favorite competes there in hopes that centrist candidates will split the RINO vote three or four ways? And then he’s somehow going to survive getting crushed in South Carolina by the Iowa winner and redeem himself by winning big in Florida? And then he’s going to win in all sorts of blue states, even though grassroots conservatives will unite behind whoever his social-con rival is in order to stop a pro-choicer like Rudy from getting nominated? It’s so crazy it just … might … work.

I’ll give you two slightly more plausible scenarios. One: Rudy’s convinced that Palin will jump in and win Iowa, thereby inducing a heart-stopping panic in establishment Republicans. In that case, whoever wins New Hampshire is all but guaranteed total Beltway GOP support in South Carolina and beyond. Giuliani himself has said before that he’s more likely to run if Palin gets in, so her bus tour may have him thinking along the lines I’ve described. If he can figure out a way to win NH and turn the primaries into a Rudy/Sarah death match, then, theoretically, conservatives who are worried about Palin’s electability might hold their noses and break for him. I think that scenario’s extremely unlikely, but there you go.

Two: More realistically, Rudy knows full well he can’t win but is unhappy that his star as a national figure has dimmed. He spoke at the convention in 2004; he ran for president in 2008. In 2012, he’ll be little more than a talking head who bowed out of politics with a famously inept campaign. Even his speaking fees have reportedly “dropped like a stone.” The surest way to get back on the national radar is to run for president and try to pull, say, 10 percent in New Hampshire. That’ll mean months of free media and, potentially, some value in a Giuliani endorsement for whoever ends up winning NH. If Rudy gets behind that person and heads out on the stump for him in Florida and elsewhere, it could position him to be named Attorney General or Director of National Intelligence if his candidate of choice ends up beating Obama. Still a longshot, but he doesn’t have many options left in national politics. Why not run a small but targeted campaign and try to parlay it into a cabinet position?

I like Rudy he made the City safe enough my wife and kids would visit it. Plus he got the city financially sound. Dumping the welfare grifters living in Puerto Rico by requiring they pick up their checks in person was classic Rudy.

I was hoping the circus part of the campaign season was winding down and things could get serious now.

Poor Pawlenty. He tried to give a serious speech yesterday and only a few people noticed.

Everyone is so busy talking about how mistreated Palin is and who else might be getting in… Pawlenty can’t get a toe hold.

I like Romney. But I still have serious doubts that he can win. So I would like the best back-up guy to do well. That would be Pawlenty.

Rudy is still pro-choice and likes to dress funny and has been married several times and has some bitter x-wives and his children still won’t talk to him, right?

Just checking because I liked him in 2007. And then I found out all that stuff. And, well, I wasn’t surprised to see him fizzle.

He’d be good in the cabinet. As… national mayor? Homeland security! Yes, way better than Janet!

It is almost like, Palin, and Bachman and Perry and Rudy are all conspiring to keep Pawlenty from getting in traction against Romney. That’s silly right? It’s coincidence right?

The circus overshadows Pawlenty and helps Romney. In a way it helps Cain too. Because Cain keeps saying really stupid things and nobody pays that much attention because it doesn’t have anything to do with how everyone is mistreating Palin.

But today Cain’s stupid moment was a loyalty test. Which is a little scary, although I know what he meant, but still.

Cain has potential, but he doesn’t have the experience to be President, it is like all this is auditions for cabinet positions.

Disclaimer, I met him here in NH in 2008. Genuinely nice guy, and very interested in what I had to say, especially when I told him I lived in Lower Manhattan in the late 1960s when the WTC towers were getting ready to be built.

Even though he had nothing to do with it I bent his ear about how NYC’s famed “Radio Row” was taken over by Democrats using Eminent Domain to build a bunch of skyscrapers. Most of those skyscrapers were later knocked down by Bush and Cheney in September of 2001.

Rudy took millions of dollars for the last race in 2008 and then basically quit without a real fight. I like Rudy but I dont think his financial backers are going to pony up more millions without some kind of blood oath by Rudy that he will fight to final convention vote and I dont think he will do that so I dont think he will run

I have to agree with some above sentiment. Id have no trouble voting for Rudy if it came down to him or Mitt. In fact, i probably would be more or less okay with him as the nominee if it came down to it. I truly think he is much more conservative than Pawlenty or Romney.

After seeing what he did in NYC (I grew up during his clean up and restoration of the city), i just trust him to get things done.

Is he my first choice…..no….thats Cain as of today, is he my 2nd or 3rd choice….doubt it, but could back him against Obama comfortably and Rudy would destroy that empty suit without blinking….which would be nice.

We could do worse than Rudy within the group we are working with today.

Gee, here is a choice…a professional politician or a professional politician.
They both will do exactly what others have done…politic, and get nothing substantial done.
Can you say either one of them really, truly, will get in there and cut the government spending? Reduce bureaucracy?
If so….show us where they have in the past, they both have extensive track records.

The main asset Rudy has going into 2012 is he’s the only Republican candidate who’s actually had to run the gauntlet, and was able to win — remember, everything single thing about Barack Obama, from his original campaign, to his governing style, to his planned re-election strategy, played out during the David Dinkins administration as mayor of New York.

Dinkins ran for re-election in ’93 with virtually nothing positive to campaign on (unless you consider banning jets from taking over over the Arthur Ashe Tennis Center during the U.S. Open a major achievement), and as a result, his supporters — including some of the same people in the big media today — fired off race cards by the score at Giuliani and his supporters, including the NYPD. Rudy probably won’t win the nomination, but whoever gets it better be prepared to deal with the same sort of campaign, but even on a more intense level, given the growth of alternative media outlets in the past 18 years.

So Gingrich is unacceptable because of his infidelity. But for Rudy, it’s no biggie. Rudy was such a creep in his marriages, his kids hate him. And what number of wife is he on now? Or is he back living with his gay roomates?

And being pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and pro-gun control make him conservative? More conservative than anyone else in the race?

Hypocrites!!!

I actually think Rudy has a lot to offer, but please never say the word RINO again if you even consider voting for him.

So Gingrich is unacceptable because of his infidelity. But for Rudy, it’s no biggie. Rudy was such a creep in his marriages, his kids hate him. And what number of wife is he on now? Or is he back living with his gay roomates?

And being pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and pro-gun control make him conservative? More conservative than anyone else in the race?

Hypocrites!!!

I actually think Rudy has a lot to offer, but please never say the word RINO again if you even consider voting for him.

Am I the one changing what the criteria for a candidate should be from one day to the next? Am I the one refusing to read about all candidates? Am I the one that in one post will discuss an issue yet in another go on an emotional, fact deprived rant?

Giuliani didn’t run for himself in the last election, so who is he trying to get into office this time?

When someone climbs over the fence at the big estate, the masters sic the dogs on them. If each dog takes one bite, how many bites does it take to consume an intruder?

I am just surprised they are using the same stringers this time around

Meanwhile, we are taking bets on who sic’d Rollins on Bachmann. One thing Rollins has, that Bachmann does not, is entree to the MSM. She basically gave him her ID and driver’s license. Normally this gets worked out in high school