Two days of drizzle in Chennai, dont be disappointed. It will be Chennai’s turn today.

Last two days, we have seen big mass of clouds move so close to chennai only to fade away. Some of us were thrilled and even thought that it wont miss Chennai. But in the end, it never rained as expected as the wind were not supportive and when the wind was supportive there was no moisture at all levels.

Tomorrow/ Day after Tomorrow Morning satisfies all parameter for rains, there is moisture from 6 kms to surface level and we also end up in the right hand side of the upper air trough. So, as usual, a big TS will move from Vellore, but this time it will extend into Chennai and the rains may start night /late night /after mid night. To be honest, it is very difficult to predict quantum as these TS may dump cm’s of rains in minutes.

Enjoy it as April rains are very rare and Remember Rains will start only at night or after mid night as these storms have to travel to Coast. It is also one heck of a rare system.

It became very cold in hyderabad and suprised to see that moderate rain is continuing in hyderabad even now
current temperature 15.8
Many northern areas of hyderabad may report above 100mm rain today..
heavy damage in hyderabad due to winds
many electric poles have broken down…

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Then you can go for Samsung s duos or core duos .. or even Lenovo A6000 is good. I personally feel that Samsung products are getting dull now. Just try to Google top 10 mobile phones in India under 10k and trust me you won’t find Samsung at the top

According to IMD GFS analysis and forecast , the pattern of the mid level Trough is expected to be in the most favorable position today…It is expected to transform to a near neutral tilt trough position from a positive tilt position as it had been from its formation. It is expected to bounce back to a weaker positive tilt position again tomorrow. So today might be a little more supportive for quite a good number of T’storms provided other factors provide a support.
One more thing is that the Arabian ridge is expected to gain more strength in the next couple of days, and the core of it is expected to expand vertically due to increased warming to a geopotential height of 592 dam , and is expected to spread out more towards the east , and simultaneously the Indian Trough would get back to the westerlies …..to normal position …..

The image attached here shows the positive tilt positions of the Indian Trough and all other similar troughs to the west …..

Can i ask one thing, what does Chennai heat has to do with TS formation over vellore. Is TS going to form right over Chennai. As morning goes, the sky will clear. There will be heat. Moreover, its a trough related upliftment. Not a Veppa Salanam rains.

Massive rains in Karnataka from a rare event affecting Peninsula, ending 8.30 am on 13.04.2015
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Over 200 stations have reported over 10 mm rainfall. Hence, the cut-off is kept at 40 mm. A trough runs from west Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. with the embedded cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

“As heavy rainfall warning has been issued for Tuesday, we expect there will be anywhere between five and eight centimeters of rain tomorrow,” said Y K Reddy, director in-charge, Met department, Hyderabad.

The chances of El Niño occurring in 2015 have increased. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than normal, and all models surveyed suggest further ocean warming will occur. As a result, the ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring this year.

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Niño levels. Large areas of warmer than average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean.

2nd day of heavy rains in Andhra from a rare event, ending 8.30 am on 13.04.2015
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Over 150 stations have reported rainfall. Hence, the cut-off is kept at 30 mm. A trough runs from west Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. with the embedded cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

Madden-Julian Oscillation has weakened
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened over the Indian Ocean during the first half of April. Some models forecast the MJO to re-strengthen slightly over the western tropical Indian Ocean this week while other models maintain a weak signal. Both scenarios indicate the MJO would have little impact on northern Australian rainfall for the next two weeks.

Tropical Australia has seen dry conditions for several weeks, likely influenced by the location of the MJO before it weakened. The MJO was strong and active over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the last weeks of March, prior to its steady weakening. When the MJO is active in these regions, tropical weather is often supressed over Australian longitudes.

While the northern wet season is winding down, showers and storms are still possible in coastal areas in the coming weeks where humidity remains high. Another burst of the monsoon is unlikely to occur over Australia this season as most tropical convection has shifted north of the continent. Some weather models develop an active near-equatorial trough, with the possibility of a tropical low, to the north of Australia by early next week.

Warm Pacific and Indian oceans
Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average. Sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region are 0.7 °C above normal and the most recent Southern Oscillation Index value to 12 April is -10.2. All international climate models monitored by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will reach or exceed El Niño thresholds by June.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the remainder of the year. While a dipole pattern (cool waters in the west and warm in the east or vice versa) across the Indian Ocean is not expected, the waters across the Indian Ocean basin are currently warmer than normal and will increase the likelihood of wet weather over western and southern Australia over the next few months.

Apparent position of Sun at noon time for the day ….
Exactly overhead Tamil Nadu;
Angle of Sun’s inclination to reverse in a few days
Journey begins for the migration of this position northwards and so the harsh Summer too……

Pictures of hail storm in Aspari which is 90 km away from kurnool on sunday evening….
massive hailstones falling down
rainfall in aspari on that day was 26.2 mm
Aspari mandal is also the hottest in kurnool
last week it recorded 44.7 degree temperature

since pre monsoon rain peak all over india has formed 10 days earlier than normal, renowned expert pv joseph believe monsoon onset over kerala may happen early around 25th of may(+3 or -3 days).. interesting relation.

Is it NEM No, But Tamil Nadu is getting Very Heavy Rains due a rare upper air trough dipping from Central India to Tamil Nadu, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 13.04.2015
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Over 300 stations have reported over 10 mm rainfall. Hence, the cut-off is kept at 40 mm. A trough runs from west Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. with the embedded cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

Searching for perfection – “Indian Monsoon is always “ifs and buts” – I have taken points from BL

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Monsoon is generated from a seasonal reversal of trade winds in the southern hemisphere, dictated by the northward movement of the sun. Being a global phenomenon, it is influenced by what happens in large water bodies such as the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean (El Nino-La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole, for instance).

The IMD is now working on the National Monsoon Mission (NMM). Under the mission, the IMD will collaborate with weather research organisations nationally as well as internationally to improve monsoon forecasting. “The NMM aims to improve models for short (12-72 hours), medium (72-240 hours), extended (10-30 days) and seasonal prediction,” says D Sivanand Pai, Head, Long Range Forecasting Division, IMD, Pune.

NMM”s focus is on developing a dynamic model (dynamic because it is not based on set parameters) for monsoon prediction and ₹400 crore has been earmarked for it over five years. Dynamic models simulate sea and atmospheric conditions and are acknowledged the most dependable across the world. But they are still in the experimental stage when it comes to the Indian monsoon and need a lot more investigating and research. “It is still in research mode. The Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology is the main coordinator and is interacting with US agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). We are trying to improve forecast across the seasonal model and make it suitable for Indian conditions,” says Pai.

City residents had two reasons to cheer on Monday: a dip in day temperature and arrival of Krishna water from Andhra Pradesh (A.P.).

However, rains that played hide-and-seek over the city on Sunday night left residents disappointed the next morning. An upper air cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and its neighbourhood brought rain to many parts of the State, however. The overcast sky brought down the temperature in the city to 33.6 degrees Celsius, one degree Celsius below the average.

Weather blogger S. Velayudham said areas along Rajiv Gandhi Salai and East Coast Road recorded up to 2 cm of rainfall till Monday morning.

The meteorological department expects thundershowers over some areas of the city on Monday night. But, localities in the interior areas will have an edge over coastal parts in this rain spell. In Chennai, light showers may last till Wednesday.

The city will also enjoy some respite from the looming water crisis as Krishna water released from Kandaleru reservoir in A.P. reached the State’s border in Uthukottai, Tiruvallur district, on Monday afternoon.

“We have received 150 cubic feet per second (cusecs) of water and expect the volume to go up to 500 cusecs. The water will reach Poondi reservoir on Tamil New Year’s Day and be taken to reservoirs in Chembarambakkam and Red Hills. From there, it will be distributed to residents,” said an official.

City residents may enjoy moderate weather with the maximum temperature predicted to be around 33 degrees Celsius till Wednesday.

Worst hailstorms again near markapuram….
and many other places……they r killing innocent farmers…….It better if no rains like this in summer…..so that no deaths due to lightening anymore..4 people belonging to same family were badly hurted down to lightening yesterday