N.H. has had a Mass. invasion

By JASON HOWE

Friday

Mar 28, 2008 at 3:15 AMMar 28, 2008 at 5:54 AM

A new study by University of New Hampshire researchers confirms what locals have long known — there's Mass. migration afoot.

Details in the study indicate nearly 25 percent of the state's current population were born in Massachusetts, while some 57 percent of Granite Staters are — as neighboring Mainers would say — "from away," according to the study.

"We have seen what could certainly be considered a substantial migration from Massachusetts to New Hampshire, particularly from the Boston Metro area," said Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer with UNH's Carsey Institute and author of the study, titled: "The Changing Faces of New Hampshire: Recent Demographic Trends in the Granite State."

Aided in large part by the influx of Bay Staters, New Hampshire remains New England's fastest-growing state — by far.

Johnson's study came out last week amid the ongoing release of Census Bureau and IRS data, including county and state-specific information.

"I've been crunching numbers like crazy trying to keep up," Johnson said during an interview Thursday. "As with most growth around the country, much of the growth in the Granite State can be attributed to urban sprawl."

Sprawl from Boston, north and out from cities like Manchester, Portsmouth and Nashua, account for increases in "nonmetro" areas, Johnson said, as people move from the urban environments to quieter, rural locations.

Summary data released with the study shows the state gained nearly 51,000 residents as a result of migration between 2000 and 2006, accounting for a majority of the 79,000 new residents in the state. Births accounted for the remainder.

A few notables who are among that roughly 25 percent "from away" include Gov. John Lynch, who was actually born in Waltham, Mass. What's more, more than 25 percent of the state's 424 lawmakers are Massachusetts natives, according to information released last year by the University of New Hampshire survey center.

Families moving to New Hampshire from metropolitan Boston tend to be relatively affluent, with a mean income considerably higher than existing New Hampshire households. That influx of new faces contributed roughly $1.4 billion in new income to the state as well, with some of the highest areas of growth seen within the 30-39 age bracket and with children.

"The simple explanation for this is that many of those people moving into the state are in their 30s and bring with them children," Johnson said.

That domestic migration — or "internal migration," as the federal government calls it — accounts for a substantial part of the influx.

More interesting to Johnson is the massive ebb and flow of residents into and away from the state. While overall change in populations is effectively a "net" comparison of that data at the end of any given period of time, the overall tide of human flow is staggering.

Johnson points to one, small piece of the puzzle as a representative microcosm of the whole.

"Take a look at just the Boston Metro figures in (Study Figure 16). IRS information shows that between 2001 and 2005, some 33,000 people left the state for that area, while nearly 80,000 people moved here from there," Johnson said. "You look at the difference, which is roughly 40,000 people — and that's big — but you have to consider that some 110,000 people were moving one way or another at that time to achieve that 40,000 difference."

During the process of that migration, some 110,000 homes or apartments were sold, leased or purchased. Those families or individuals took with them their spending power, their shopping and eating habits, and potentially, their voting habits as well.

Late last year, Johnson released another study called "New Faces at the Polls for New Hampshire Presidential Primary," which looked at the overall change in voting-age residents.

Of all the people moving into the state in the past five years, 145,000 were of voting age, while another 86,000 existing residents turned 18. Combined, they represented a 23.5 percent slice of the available 987,000 voting pool, and that meant a very different slice of the population hitting the polls.

The study stopped short of drawing any political conclusions as a result of the turnover, but columnists and newspapers alike heralded the N.H. Primary as the start of a politically left-listing New Hampshire ship.

Politics aside, Johnson said there are three different types of residential influx, as typified by three counties — Coos, Carroll and Hillsboro.

"That massive flow back and forth accounts for the young people who left, and may be coming back to raise families, or the former Boston Metro residents moving north with children," Johnson said. "But even within the different counties, there seem to be three distinct trends of growth."

"Amenity migrants," as he calls them, represent spikes in the older population in counties like Carroll, where new residents are not only comprised of seniors looking to retire, but the middle-aged group of people who built their homes, provide services and care, and whose businesses depend on the influx of new incomes. The northern Lakes Region is a prime example of such movement as well.

Counties like Coos, where industry was typically "extractive" — dependent on mining or lumbering — show relatively little growth, with a sharp decline in residents in their teens and early 20s as youths look elsewhere for work and educations.

Counties like Hillsboro — metro counties, where families are settling — account for the remainder of the influx.

And what of the highly-publicized "brain drain" — the massive departure of the state's bright 20-somethings?

"The whole 'brain drain' idea is not really accurate," Johnson said. While there was a slight decrease in that 20-29 age group in the late 1990s, the influx of young, highly skilled and trained 30-somethings increased over that time.

Further, studies based on partial data over the past few years indicate the number of 20-somethings is actually increasing.

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