Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Week 7 Pickers

Oh my what a weekend. A couple of overtime games, a goal-line defensive stop to win the game (Packers), a last second TD to win on the road against the 12th man (Panthers), and the best/worst fake punt in history (Colts).

5 Teams come into week 7 undefeated, which is the most in like 70 years or something. Packers, Bengals, and Broncos are on a bye so the Dolphins won't be popping any corks this weekend, but week 8, I guarantee at least one of those 3 teams will lose. You read it here first. I'm not sure which team, but one of those three are guaranteed to lose in week 8.

unbelievables:
That fake punt, unbelievable that you'd think you're going to trick the pats. apparently they're supposed to look like they're running off the field to get the offense on, but then why is a WR playing center? Stupid, dumb play.

unbelievable 4th quarter from Cam Newton, just owned the seahawks. This is a team that won 7 games last year. They lost all of their weapons and now they've already won 5.

unbelievable that the colts hung with the pats. Game wasn't really that close, but I expected a much bigger blowout. I guess it gives the rest of the NFL hope that the pats maybe aren't invincible. (TBD)

On to the picks. I went 7-6-1 last week, and EP was 7-5-1. Total for the year is a respectable 44-28-3 for me, and 38-29-3 for EP. Also, it's too late now, but you should have bought McDonald's stock about a month ago. Everyone loves all day breakfast. (Beast) And if you're looking for a buy low option, Chipotle is dropping and will come back, same with Tesla.

49ers +6.5 vs Seahawks
I'm not a fan of this game, all thursday night games suck. Seahawks got embarrased at the end last week, and the wheels are starting to come off the defense. This is what happens when you have a lot of loud overconfident guys, when it starts going bad, they're not afraid to turn on each other. The 49ers are a mess, but they've been ok at home. I like them to keep it close enough. The seahawks don't score enough points really to blow this one open. Seahawks win, 21-17.

Jaguars +7 vs Bills
I guess this is a home game for the Jags. At least they're used to playing in London, so they've got that going for them. I can't figure out the Bills, they're hot one week, then cold the next. 2 of their 3 losses are against teams that are undefeated, so the schedule hasn't been kind. I like what i've seen out of Jacksonville's offense lately. They can toss it around, and having Julius Thomas helps Bortles out a ton. I think the bills win, but don't cover. Although, i wouldn't be shocked if the Jags won this game. Bills win 28-24.

Redskins -3 vs Bucs
The skins are another of those conundrum teams. Sometimes they surprise you and are super tough, other times they just get their doors blown off. The bucs aren't that bad, but their two wins have come against an awful Saints team, and a really bad Jags team. The skins are better than both of those teams. I think the skins run the ball, control the clock, and win the game 17-13.

Falcons -4 vs Titans
Titans might be without Mariota. Not sure yet. I'd sit him if i'm the whisenhunter, because why risk more injury to your future. The Titans have played teams tough, but haven't been able to hold on and win games late. They very well could be 3-2...so maybe a little better than their record suggests. The falcons are coming of a Thursday night embarrassment. Dan Quinn is going to get in their faces this week. They'll blitz the heck out of Mariota or Mettenberg, and should win this one by 10 points or so. If not, the falcons are not for real. Falcons 24-14.

Colts -4.5 vs Saints
So that fake punt. I guess that's the play you call when you're the coach and you hate your owner and GM. I know it wasn't supposed to be snapped. I know it wasn't supposed to whatever...but c'mon. You can't trick the tricksters. You'd have been better off, running a real fake punt. Especially after the onside kick fail, you know the Pats were on high alert then. If you can't line up and just beat them, then they're already in your head, and they've won. All that being said, the Colts finally started to look like a decent team. The Saints are not. Colts at home against a horrible defense 38-21.

Vikings -2.5 vs Lions
I think the Lions are a better team. I think they have the better offense, the better QB, the better defense. But in the end the Vikings seem to be better than the Lions in all the ways I just mentioned. Peterson has figured out this Norv Turner system. Bridgewater has shown flashes, but he's struggling. In the end, this Lions team is down, and their confidence is shot. I like the vikings here, 24-21

Chiefs (off) vsSteelers
This is a pick'em because nobody knows who is going to play QB for the Steelers this week. So i'm picking this both ways. In this choice, i'm assuming Landry Jones is going to play, and i'll take the Chiefs in that case. I think Landry at arrowhead, would be a huge mess. In that case, Chiefs 21-17, if Roethlisberger plays, i'll take the Steelers on the road because they're the better team. Steelers 24-21.

Browns +5.5 vs Rams
Browns offense isn't that bad,except that they can't run the ball. Having McCown try and throw for 400 yards every week probably isn't the best way to try and beat a rams team that has great pass rushers. That being said, the rams are not that good either. Nick Foles? c'mon. So while the Rams may win the game, they shouldn't be 5.5 point favorites. I'll take the Rams to win at home but no cover 20-17.

Dolphins -4 vs Texans
I'm not taking the texans in another game this year (which didn't work for me last week). Dolphins will ride this new coach bump for another week, then they'll be back to their old ways. Dolphins 28-17.

Jets +10 vs Pats
It's just too many points. I think the pats are the better team. I think they'll do their patriot things. The Jets are really good on defense, but they rely on the blitz a lot, and you can't really do that to Tommy. We'll see what Todd Bowles has up his sleeve for Brady. If this number was closer to 6 i'd probably take the Pats, but I can't drop 10 on this game because the Pats defense is just not that good. Patriots win 31-24.

Raiders +4 vs Chargers
One of these teams will be in LA next year. Maybe both, but not neither. I just think the Raiders are the better team right now. To be fair, i haven't watched one minute of the Chargers this season. But i've watched the Raiders a couple of times. Derek Carr is the real deal, they can run the ball fairly well. Amari Cooper is a stud. Rivers still has some of that gunslinger in him, and can go out and throw for 500 yards on any given weekend. I'll take the Raiders to win outright 28-24

Giants -3 vs Cowboys
If the answer to the question is ever Matt Cassell, then it doesn't matter what the question is, your team is awful. Cowboys are lucky that they're in a weak division, and maybe could still be in it when Romo comes back...maybe. Giants are probably good enough to win this game by 3. If I could guess a push, this would be the game (they need a .5 here to swing the betting). Giants win 28-24

Panthers -3 vs Eagles
Eagles are starting to figure it out a little bit. But honestly, the only "impressive" win they have was against the Jets. Bradford is horrible. If the Eagles can run the ball, they can stay in this game...but that's a huge if, i know. Panthers just seem to get it done. This could be a let down week for them. Coming off a huge win, emotional, on the road....they could stumble, but i'm not counting against Cam here. Panther's defense is pretty good against the run. Panthers frustrate the Eagles, 24-17.

Cardinals -9 vs Ravens
That seems like a lot of points. But the Cards got embarrassed last week. They get to come home and right the ship. They've been scoring a ton of points (up until last week), so I think they get back on the scoring wagon. Their 4 wins, they've scored over 30 points, their two losses, they've been held under 23 points. The Ravens have scored over 30, one time, against the Raiders in a loss. All this adds up to a cardinals win, 35-24.

When I went to a White Sox WS game in Houston in 2005 I paid $550 for a ticket and sat up in the right field nose bleeds. I have no regrets spending that much for that ticket...game went 13 innings and ended in a White Sox win. I almost went to game 4 and have a little regret about not pulling the plug on that one. I was outside the stadium but couldn't find a ticket for what I wanted to pay. It should be noted that the night before I ended up spending an extra $200 because my truck was towed.

Buster Olney said that the average ticket for a Mets home game during the series is $1667.82 (highest price ever tracked). TP/LP...how much is too much for you? I wouldn't have paid that much in 05. I think $700 would have been my limit.

I'm counting on free tickets. My brother who works for Merrill Lynch has a great hook up. cmtp was in NY last weekend for a baby shower and she went to the game Saturday night for free with my brother. that being said, I don't think I would pay more than $500 for a ticket, maybe more if it was a possible clincher

In '01 I paid $150 for RF bleacher seats for game 6 of the Dbacks/Yankees. Not a Dbacks fan but I was ok spending that for the WS. Game 7 I got a free ticket and sat about 3 rows from the top, even with 1st base. Totally worth the money

The year the Rockies were in the WS, i went to game 3, and sat behind home plate, looking right down the 3rd baseline. We got the tickets at face value through the lottery, so it was like $150 or something, nothing outrageous.