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House Price Change - Where's Hot & Where's Not - March 2015

Key Headlines

Annual growth is still the strongest in the South of England though there are some early signs that growth may be slowing in some areas of the South.

Estimated average price across Greater London exceeds £500,000.

The lowest average prices in England in Wales are predominantly in South Wales, with 4 Principal Areas all showing an estimated average price of under £125,000.

The most expensive areas (Greater London & Surrey) are showing the largest negative difference between the LocationCounts Rank (***) over the last 5 years versus the last 12 months. This could be a sign that growth is slowing in these areas compared to elsewhere in the country.

30% of Counties/Principal Areas are showing a peak of estimated average price in January 2015 (the latest month's data). Greater London, Surrey & Berkshire are below peaks set in 2014 which again could be an indication that generally growth is slowing (however, the seasonal nature of the property market could be a factor).

(data up to and including January 2015)

Information contained within this report is presented at an area (English Counties, Welsh Principal Areas) level. LocationCounts provides data for a variety of geographical areas across England & Wales down to an individual postcode level. To see detailed information for where you live then enter a location (postcode, location or area) below and select from the list:

NOTE: care should be taken when comparing estimated average prices between areas of the country as the make-up of properties differs considerably. Take, for example, Northumberland and Tyne & Wear. The estimated average price in Northumberland is approximately £40,000 more than in Tyne & Wear. However, 30% of properties in Northumberland are detached while only 12% of properties in Tyne & Wear are detached. In fact, the estimated average prices for Terraced properties in Tyne & Wear exceeds that for terraced properties in Northumberland.

Longer Term Price Change (5 Years) (**)

The 5 year growth trend is showing that Greater London and bordering counties are showing the greatest growth

Much of the North of England and the North of Wales is showing minimal growth over the last 5 years. However, when comparing the 5 year growth to the 12 month growth, there are signs that prices are beginning to show signs of recovery in these areas

Short/Medium Term v. Longer Term View

LocationCounts ranks (***) areas across the country in a range of 1 to 100 (1 being the greatest % change, 100 being the lowest % change). The rank of each area allows us to compare locations against each other. By comparing the difference in rank over the Last 5 Years to the rank in the Last 12 Months we can start to see those areas where house price increase has picked up in the past 12 months compared to the previous 5 years as a whole.

This analysis shows that many areas away from Greater London are seeing the biggest shift in prices compared to what has happened previously in those areas. This again could be an indication that prices are beginning to recover away from Greater London while price growth in areas around the capital are beginning to slow in comparison.

NOTE: a negative change in rank does NOT mean that house prices have decreased, it merely indicates that growth in the past 12 months has not been as great as may have been predicted based on the previous 4 year period and how well other areas of the country have grown.

Where's Lagging Behind The Peak

House prices in some areas of England & Wales are now the highest they've ever been. However, many areas are behind a peak they've previously reached. This map shows those areas where prices are below their peak. Interesting, much of the West of the country are still behind a peak reached in 2007 while much of the South & East of the country are behind a peak reached more recently. Again, this could indicate that price growth in some areas of the country is beginning to slow though the seasonality of the housing market could also be a factor.

* The Estimated Average Price for each area (e.g. Civil Parish, Local Government District, County) is based on the average for all Postcodes contained within that area. The Estimated Average Price for each Postcode is based on the closest sales to that Postcode weighted by the proximity to the Postcode itself.

** The Price Change for each area e.g. Civil Parish, Local Government District, County) is based on the average price change for all Postcodes contained within that area. The average price change for each Postcode is based on the closest sales each month to that Postcode weighted by the proximity to the Postcode itself.

*** LocationCounts Ranks are a mechanism that allows us to compare locations across the country with one another (see our help pages for more information). All areas which are a self-contained boundary are ranked against each other; these include Counties, Local Government Districts and various Postcode Code groupings.