Cocoa falls on light volume despite strong demand

General Comments: Futures closed higher again as the bulls returned to support prices. The market had been lower early in the session. Colder weather will return to the US this weekend and next week. The freeze season is not all that far away and there is usually some speculative buying that appears at this time and as soon as the cold air starts to filter in from Canada. Traders are now expecting USDA to lower production even more in coming production reports. The greening disease has affected crops in a bigger way than many in the trade expected. Demand remains weak. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions or a few showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for a few showers this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 143.00 January. Support is at 135.00, 131.00, and 130.00 January, with resistance at 140.00, 143.00, and 145.50 January.

General Comments: Futures were higher, with speculative buying noted in New York. London was the leader on reports of excessive rains in the last week or two in Vietnam that has halted the harvest. It is expected to rain more there over the next week and the harvest will become further delayed and some quality problems could develop. The Coffee Association there is asking the government to buy 20% of the harvest this year in an effort to support world prices. Brazil will announce measures to support its growers today. They had previously bought 3.0 million bags and sod puts to producers for Coffee as well, but will go further today. Charts still show that futures are testing the upper end of the short term trading range in New York and that trends are up for at least the short term in London and Sao Paulo. Brazil has a lot of Coffee to sell yet, but the market there is quiet. The rest of northern Latin America was quiet, but there is talk of a lot of Coffee there as well.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.691 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 103.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get light showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 108.00, 105.50, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 115.00, 117.00, and 120.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1620 January. Support is at 1550, 1520, and 1500 January, and resistance is at 1605, 1640, and 1665 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 135.00 and 139.00 March. Support is at 134.00, 131.00, and 129.00 March, and resistance is at 138.00, 141.00, and 142.00 March.

General Comments: Futures were mixed in both New York and London as the market waited for the USDA report that came out after the close. The report on world Sugar production and supply and demand did nothing to change the bear market view for most participants as USDA shows another year of surplus production. There was not much in the way of demand news to support the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies available to the cash market, and chart trends remain generally down as offers remain available. Countries like India and Thailand are selling as much as possible. No big demand reports have been seen in the press lately. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good. There has not been any news of losses to Sugar areas in Vietnam and China in the wake of the storm that moved into those countries after devastating Philippines, but some losses are possible. India could see some losses from unseasonal cyclone activity in the northeast and east part of the country. Weather in Brazil appears to be mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see showers with near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1750, 1735, and 1715 March, and resistance is at 1795, 1815, and 1825 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 457.00 March. Support is at 466.00, 462.00, and 460.00 March, and resistance is at 472.00, 477.00, and 478.00 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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