Economics viewpoint + Credit crunch | The Guardianhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/series/economicsmonday+credit-crunch
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Banks fiddled while Rome burned: how to predict the next global financial crisishttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/13/banks-rome-financial-crisis
Amid signs of another asset bubble, and as memories of the last crisis fade, we might be seeing the beginnings of the next crash<p>Looking back, it was easy to see that the crash was coming. There had been too much cheap money. Debt had exploded. Speculation was rife. The gap between rich and poor had widened. Welfare spending had risen. The financial system was so stretched that even a modest tightening of policy was enough to make it impossible for over-borrowed debtors to service their debts.</p><p>The US in 2007? No, this was imperial Rome during the reign of Tiberius in AD33. It was not the first documented financial crisis; that dubious accolade goes to the states of the Delian League in ancient Greece, which defaulted on their debts following a naval blockade by Sparta.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/13/banks-rome-financial-crisis">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessEconomic recoveryHousing marketBank of EnglandFederal ReserveFinancial crisisFinancial sectorBankingBanking reformCredit crunchRecessionGlobal recessionHistoryBooksSun, 13 Apr 2014 14:27:15 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/13/banks-rome-financial-crisisPhotograph: Daniel Roland/APA broker reacts at the stock exchange in Frankfurt in September 2008 as world markets responded to the US financial crisis. Photograph: Daniel Roland/APPhotograph: Daniel Roland/APA broker reacts at the stock exchange in Frankfurt in September 2008 as world markets responded to the US financial crisis. Photograph: Daniel Roland/APLarry Elliott, economics editor2014-04-13T14:27:15ZConfidence is key to lasting global economic recoveryhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/08/confidence-key-global-economic-recovery
Sustainable global economic recovery will occur when pessimism fades – however, it is proving difficult to shift<p>The fifth anniversary of the start of the financial crisis is approaching and is being marked by concerted action to prevent a fresh downward lurch in the global economy. Interest rates have been cut in the eurozone and in China; the Bank of England has announced it will pump another £50bn into the UK economy; the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is trying to generate lower long-term borrowing costs, and will probably not leave the stimulus measures at that.</p><p>It seems like a good time to take stock of where things stand, and how events might unfold over the coming months.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/08/confidence-key-global-economic-recovery">Continue reading...</a>Financial crisisUS economyCredit crunchEconomicsEconomic growth (GDP)BusinessEconomic policyPoliticsUS economic growth and recessionWorld newsUK newsPsychologyScienceSun, 08 Jul 2012 13:55:11 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/08/confidence-key-global-economic-recoveryPhotograph: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty ImagesThe key to sustaining global economic recovery is to create create confidence that the sky is not about to fall, says one analyst. Photograph: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty ImagesThe key to sustaining global economic recovery is to create create confidence that the sky is not about to fall, says one analyst. Photograph: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty ImagesLarry Elliott2012-07-08T13:55:11ZUK recovery has been weaker than in US, Germany, France and Canadahttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2012/mar/11/uk-economic-recovery-slow
Explanation for this woeful performance is that the UK has been hit harder due to the importance to the economy of the City<p>Britain has <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/06/global-economy-economics" title="">slipped behind Brazil</a> in the global economic league table. The Bank of England has now <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/08/bank-of-england-interest-rates-qe" title="">kept the official cost of borrowing at 0.5% for three years</a> and is part way through a third dose of electronic money creation. Living standards are on course to fall for a third year in a row, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that poor households and families with children will bear the brunt of government austerity over the coming year. Pressure is mounting on George Osborne to scrap the 50% income tax band, while Vince Cable expresses frustration about the government's lack of a "compelling vision" – an accurate assessment, if a cheeky one given that the business secretary is part of the team responsible for this mess.</p><p>In short, the last seven days offered little reason to be optimistic about the UK economic recovery. Only Nissan bucked the gloom by announcing it will build a new small car at its plant in Sunderland, welcome news for a manufacturing sector where output, despite a 25% depreciation of sterling, is flat-lining.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2012/mar/11/uk-economic-recovery-slow">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyPoliticsRecessionGlobal recessionGlobal economyCredit crunchMarket turmoilFinancial crisisSun, 11 Mar 2012 20:44:48 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2012/mar/11/uk-economic-recovery-slowPhotograph: Alex Beaton/AlamyUK financial services sector's share of the economy is no bigger than in the US. Photograph Alex Beaton/AlamyPhotograph: Alex Beaton/AlamyUK financial services sector's share of the economy is no bigger than in the US. Photograph Alex Beaton/AlamyLarry Elliott economics editor2012-03-11T20:44:48ZAs the 1942 Beveridge report said: in a crisis, be revolutionaryhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/sep/18/financial-crisis-beveridge-report
Instead the past four years have been a classic case of 'patching' – we need better<p>It has been a grim summer. Unemployment is up, the eurozone is flirting with disaster, rumours are swirling around the banks and the crisis that began four years ago rumbles on. Finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington this week for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund amid distinct echoes of their meeting three years ago when the global banking system stood on the edge of the precipice. Last week's decision to provide copious amounts of cash to banks was the equivalent of stocking the larder with baked beans and bottled water during the hurricane season. A stormy winter is in prospect.</p><p>In the UK, the coalition government is beset with economic difficulties. Inflation is rising, activity is flatlining, youth unemployment is approaching the one-million mark, and rebalancing is as far away as ever. But if you think that's a challenging outlook, imagine what life was like for the last coalition government in the summer of 1941. Britain was stumbling from one military catastrophe to another, America's entry into the war was still six months away and the Blitz was at its most ferocious. It was then, though, less than two weeks before the German invasion of the Soviet Union that the cabinet decided to start planning for postwar reconstruction. It appointed the economist <a href="http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1942beveridge.html" title="">Sir William Beveridge to come up with ways of improving Britain's social safety net</a> following the widespread deprivation evident in the interwar years.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/sep/18/financial-crisis-beveridge-report">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessFinancial crisisGlobal recessionBankingCredit crunchMarket turmoilPoliticsLiberal-Conservative coalitionWelfareLabourConservativesG20BenefitsSun, 18 Sep 2011 18:02:43 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/sep/18/financial-crisis-beveridge-reportLarry Elliott, economics editor2011-09-18T18:02:43ZInsights from ecologists show ways of preventing economic disasterhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/apr/18/economics-banking-financial-crisis
By early 2009, 23 of the biggest European and American banks saw 90% of their market value evaporate<p>In the eight centuries from 1000-1800 AD the world's fish stocks and species numbers were stable and healthy. In the subsequent 200 years, 40% of the species in coastal waters collapsed, showing falls in their population by 90% or more.</p><p>There was a pattern to this story of decline. There was a much-less marked attrition in coastal regions with richly diverse marine ecosystems than in regions exhibiting low levels of diversity.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/apr/18/economics-banking-financial-crisis">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessFinancial crisisGlobal recessionBankingBank of EnglandLehman BrothersMarket turmoilCredit crunchMon, 18 Apr 2011 06:03:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/apr/18/economics-banking-financial-crisisPhotograph: Stephen Ferry/GettyGlobal financial system, mirrored the complex but less disease-resistant ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforests, leading to its rapid decline from 2008. Photograph Getty ImagesPhotograph: Stephen Ferry/GettyGlobal financial system, mirrored the complex but less disease-resistant ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforests, leading to its rapid decline from 2008. Photograph Getty ImagesLarry Elliott2011-04-18T06:03:00ZFinancial markets are still ruled by instant gratificationhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/sep/13/economics-recession-globalisation-rebalancing-reform
Two years after the collapse of Lehman Bros, it's hard to find much sign of the fundamental reforms we were promised<p>It is now two years since the sky fell in on the world's financial markets. On Sunday, 14 September 2008 <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/14/lehmanbrothers.barclay" title="">the US government came to a decision about the future of Lehman Brothers, refusing to bail out a troubled Wall Street investment bank </a>that nobody was willing or able to buy.</p><p>The assumption of George Bush's administration was that there would be only minor knock-on effects from the bankruptcy. It was profoundly wrong, as events rapidly proved. On Monday, 15 September there was chaos on the world's financial markets. Fear that other banks were vulnerable meant that no institution was too big to fail. In the UK, pressure was particularly intense on Halifax Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland. In the US, even Goldman Sachs was felt to be at risk. A month of mayhem ensued, only brought to an end by governments everywhere agreeing to stand behind their banks with almost incomprehensible amounts of taxpayers' money.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/sep/13/economics-recession-globalisation-rebalancing-reform">Continue reading...</a>Financial crisisLehman BrothersBankingBusinessCredit crunchMarket turmoilFinancial sectorEconomic policyPoliticsEconomicsGlobal economyRecessionGlobal recessionBank of EnglandChinaWorld newsGlobalisationAsia PacificMon, 13 Sep 2010 06:00:40 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/sep/13/economics-recession-globalisation-rebalancing-reformPhotograph: Richard Drew/APTraders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. It's easier to gamble spare capital in the financial markets than it is to use it for new machinery. Photograph: Richard Drew/APPhotograph: Richard Drew/APTraders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. It's easier to gamble spare capital in the financial markets than it is to use it for new machinery. Photograph: Richard Drew/APLarry Elliott, Economics editor2010-09-13T06:00:40ZPension funds chasing highest returns on investment force behind recessionhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/12/pension-funds-global-recession
Hedge funds are on course to regain the $2.7tn they had amassed just before the crash<p>Harold Wilson blamed the gnomes of Zurich, a disparaging term for Swiss bankers, when his economic policies went awry, while John Major pointed the finger at currency speculator George Soros for wrecking his government's finances.</p><p>Last week Alan Greenspan joined the blame game and outed the Germans as responsible for much of the US sub-prime crisis and the resulting financial meltdown. Admittedly, the former Federal Reserve chairman never actually mentioned the German nation as chief culprit. He told the opening day of a US inquiry into the crisis it was big bad Europe that played a significant role when it recklessly bought dodgy US mortgages without checking to see if the promise of a risk free 10% return was too good to be true.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/12/pension-funds-global-recession">Continue reading...</a>BusinessHedge fundsPrivate equityBondsOccupational pensionsMoneyGeorge SorosAlan GreenspanGlobal recessionFinancial crisisBankingCredit crunchUS economyRecessionSun, 11 Apr 2010 23:05:43 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/12/pension-funds-global-recessionPhotograph: Oli Scarff/Getty ImagesSavers in pension funds who have amassed trillions of dollars over the last 30 years are desperate to regain money lost in the recession. Photograph: Oli Scarff/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Oli Scarff/Getty ImagesSavers in pension funds who have amassed trillions of dollars over the last 30 years are desperate to regain money lost in the recession. Photograph: Oli Scarff/Getty ImagesPhillip Inman2010-04-11T23:05:43ZA few strikes don't make a spring of discontenthttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/29/strike-action-recession-recovery
With public sector workers bearing the brunt of spending cuts, it's surprising that we aren't seeing more industrial militancy<p>A strike by British Airways cabin crew. Threatened <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/mar/27/rail-strike-fresh-talks-resume" title="">disruption on the railways</a>. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/mar/24/budget-2010-alistair-darling-cross-picket-lines" title="">Picketing of parliament</a> by civil servants on budget day. Quite clearly, Britain is once again gripped by the industrial militancy of the 1970s.</p><p>Except that it isn't. There are good reasons why workers should be unhappy, but the idea that this is a spring of discontent or the return of the "British disease" is tosh.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/29/strike-action-recession-recovery">Continue reading...</a>Trade unionsFinancial crisisCredit crunchBanks and building societiesRecessionJob lossesBritish AirwaysPublic sector cutsPublic financeSun, 28 Mar 2010 23:00:02 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/29/strike-action-recession-recoveryPhotograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty ImagesBritish Airways cabin crew on strike at Heathrow. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty ImagesBritish Airways cabin crew on strike at Heathrow. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty ImagesLarry Elliott2010-03-28T23:00:02ZOvervalued exchange rate is a symbol of Britain's economic malaisehttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/08/sterling-exchange-rates-house-prices
Weaker sterling may mean dearer imports but it will help rebalance the economy<p>Sterling fell on the foreign exchanges last week. That's good news. Halifax reported that house prices were down 1.5% in February. That too is good news.</p><p>This may seem strange, given that the pound is a totem of national economic virility, while we all know how deeply attached the Brits are to property inflation. Ministers will no doubt feel a bit jittery about last week's events since dearer imported goods, more expensive foreign holidays and the drop in house prices are likely to lead to a diminished "feelgood factor" and thus favour the opposition parties at the election.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/08/sterling-exchange-rates-house-prices">Continue reading...</a>Economic growth (GDP)House pricesRecessionCurrenciesConsumer spendingInternational tradeInflationInterest ratesBank of EnglandCredit crunchFinancial crisisMoneyMon, 08 Mar 2010 00:05:05 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/08/sterling-exchange-rates-house-pricesPhotograph: Gabriel Szabo/NewscastHigh value of Sterling between 1997 and 2007 made exports dearer, left industry struggling and there was a steady deterioration in the balnce of trade.Photograph: Gabriel Szabo/NewscastHigh value of Sterling between 1997 and 2007 made exports dearer, left industry struggling and there was a steady deterioration in the balnce of trade.Larry Elliott2010-03-08T00:05:05ZThe credit crunch has shattered America's 'neoliberal dream'https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/feb/22/america-neoliberal-dream-imf
The global financial crisis marked the end of the dominance of free-market capitalism, and even the IMF is now questioning the ideology behind it<p>With money comes great influence: political, ideological, even sartorial. The doublet and hose of Henry VIII were copied from the lavish dress of rich Florentine and Venetian merchants at the height of the Renaissance; sombre suits spread throughout the world in homage to the Victorian gents who commanded the British empire, and the jeans and T-shirts of today's teenagers were born in the United States, the 20th-century hegemon.</p><p>In their new book, The End of Influence (subtitled What Happens When Other Countries Have the Money), the economists Stephen Cohen and Brad DeLong argue that the supplanting of the US by other rising economic powers will have seismic consequences for a world that has spent the best part of the past century buying up the American dream and all its accessories – from Coca-Cola to schmaltzy Hollywood movies, hamburgers to irritating conversational tics ("like, whatever!").</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/feb/22/america-neoliberal-dream-imf">Continue reading...</a>Credit crunchFinancial crisisInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)Financial Services Authority (FSA)InflationInterest ratesLehman BrothersUS economyBusinessFinancial sectorMon, 22 Feb 2010 00:00:02 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/feb/22/america-neoliberal-dream-imfPhotograph: Charles Rex Arbogast/APUS-led free-market ideology was dominant in the 20th century. But today, China owns $800bn of US treasury bonds. Photograph: Charles Rex Arbogast/APPhotograph: Charles Rex Arbogast/APUS-led free-market ideology was dominant in the 20th century. But today, China owns $800bn of US treasury bonds. Photograph: Charles Rex Arbogast/APHeather Stewart2010-02-22T00:00:02ZLarry Elliott | Viewpoint | Painful death of the American economic dreamhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/nov/02/globalisation-financial-markets-reforms
This crisis has been a long time in coming, and history suggests that the period of upheaval will be long and painful, just as it was between 1914 and 1945<p>It wasn't really supposed to end up like this. When the Berlin Wall came crashing down 20 years ago, the cold war ended with triumph for the west. Instead of two superpowers, there was one. Instead of competing ideologies, there was capitalism, and a particularly brash form of capitalism at that.</p><p>The elder George Bush said the world should learn how to do things the American way. "We know what works," he said. "Free markets work."</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/nov/02/globalisation-financial-markets-reforms">Continue reading...</a>GlobalisationBankingHedge fundsCredit crunchFinancial crisisRegulatorsMervyn KingQuantitative easingWTOEnvironmentUnited NationsUS economyBarack ObamaIndiaChinaAsia PacificMon, 02 Nov 2009 00:06:18 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/nov/02/globalisation-financial-markets-reformsLarry Elliott2009-11-02T00:06:18ZEastern economic promise holds little hope for western growth | Larry Elliotthttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/19/rise-of-chinese-economic-influence
The sun has set on America driving the world economy but China will not replace it<p>In the 1930s there was the Great Depression. The decades after the second world war were dubbed the Great Compression, as the gap between rich and poor narrowed in an era of strong growth. Mervyn King dubbed the late 1990s and the early noughties the Great Moderation, when the spread of the market economy to fresh parts of the globe produced a period in which inflationary pressures abated.</p><p>So what now? In the short term, at least, the answer is the Great Escape. Financial markets have bounced spectacularly since the low point in the early spring and while the recovery trajectory for the real economy will be bumpier, it is clear that Armageddon is no longer just around the corner.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/19/rise-of-chinese-economic-influence">Continue reading...</a>Economic policyUS economic growth and recessionEconomic recoveryEconomicsUS economyRecessionCredit crunchBusinessSun, 18 Oct 2009 23:11:13 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/19/rise-of-chinese-economic-influenceLarry Elliott2009-10-18T23:11:13ZCameron is gaining ground because Labour can't admit it fell for free-market ideology | Larry Elliotthttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/12/cameron-outflanking-labour
The government should admit it was complicit in the City's excesses and seize the social democratic moment<p>The opinion polls seem clear enough. In six months Britain will have a Conservative government armed with a mandate to scale back the state with immediate effect and all Labour can do between now and next spring is prevent heavy defeat becoming a wipeout.</p><p>While this may prove to be true, it is curious nonetheless. David Cameron has been amazingly successful at shifting the political battle onto his own ground; he has disguised a strategically weak position with tactical elan. Labour has done the opposite; it has allowed a strong strategic position to be nullified by the darts and feints of the opposition.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/12/cameron-outflanking-labour">Continue reading...</a>David CameronRecessionEconomicsCredit crunchEconomic policyUK newsPoliticsConservativesGordon BrownAlistair DarlingLabourLehman BrothersSun, 11 Oct 2009 23:06:21 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/12/cameron-outflanking-labourLarry Elliott, economics editor2009-10-11T23:06:21ZJobless figures show demise of the slump may be exaggeratedhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/sep/21/jobless-slump-demise-exaggerated
• Figures conflict with King and Bernanke's remarks<br />• Britain's jobless still rising after stimulus packages<p>It's a conundrum: central bank chiefs such as the Bank of England's Mervyn King and the US Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke say the recession is over, yet unemployment on both sides of the Atlantic continues to rise rapidly, with Britain's jobless rate hitting a 13-year high of almost 2.5 million last week.</p><p>So what is going on? We have no proof yet that recession – commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy – is over, although all the signs are that many major economies will return to growth in this quarter. In Britain's case, that will end a run of five quarters of shrinkage.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/sep/21/jobless-slump-demise-exaggerated">Continue reading...</a>RecessionGlobal recessionJob lossesGovernment borrowingBank of EnglandQuantitative easingCredit crunchInterest ratesInflationRetail industryFTSEBen BernankeMervyn KingRedundancyWork & careersMoneyBorrowing & debtSun, 20 Sep 2009 23:05:34 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/sep/21/jobless-slump-demise-exaggeratedPhotograph: Chris Radcliffe/PAAlthough the recession seems far from over, Mervyn King was right when he said that the pace of recovery was 'highly uncertain'. Photograph: Chris Radcliffe/PAPhotograph: Chris Radcliffe/PAAlthough the recession seems far from over, Mervyn King was right when he said that the pace of recovery was 'highly uncertain'. Photograph: Chris Radcliffe/PAAshley Seager2009-09-20T23:05:34ZA September to remember? Let's hope nothttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/aug/31/credit-crunch-lehmanbrothers
Financial upsets tend to occur about now – but this time there may be good news<p>Tomorrow marks the start of September, traditionally the most accident-prone month of the year. For some reason, stuff happens when the leaves turn brown: world wars start, terrorist outrages occur. In Britain, it was the month when sterling came off the gold standard in 1931 and the month the pound was ejected from the ERM 61 years later. Last year, it was the month <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/15/lehmanbrothers.creditcrunch" title="Lehman Brothers collapsed">Lehman Brothers collapsed</a>, providing the catalyst that pushed the global banking system to the brink of the abyss.</p><p>At the moment it looks unlikely that there will be a seminal moment in the economy, since there has been little evidence of the growing tension that tends to prefigure a catastrophic event. What we are likely to see is a reality check on the strength and durability of the recovery.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/aug/31/credit-crunch-lehmanbrothers">Continue reading...</a>Credit crunchLehman BrothersQuantitative easingInterest ratesBankingFinancial Services Authority (FSA)RegulatorsUS economyGlobal economyGlobal recessionUnemployment and employment statisticsExecutive pay and bonusesSun, 30 Aug 2009 23:05:06 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/aug/31/credit-crunch-lehmanbrothersLarry Elliott2009-08-30T23:05:06ZFinal demand is essential to fulfil the government's timetable for recoveryhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jul/20/quantative-easing-charlie-bean
There is precious little sign that the UK's quantitative easing is leading to greater lending<p>Mr Bean went on tour last week. That's Charlie Bean, of course, the deputy governor of the Bank of England sent out to the regions ostensibly to explain all about quantitative easing, but in reality to spread the news that recovery is just around the corner.</p><p>Cautious optimism is the mood of the moment. Even the bear's bear – Nouriel Roubini – was saying late last week that the worst was over, and he boosted stock markets in the process. Bean's message is that the Bank will eventually need to tighten policy – reversing quantitative easing and raising interest rates – but has no intention of doing so yet for fear of "nipping recovery in the bud".</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jul/20/quantative-easing-charlie-bean">Continue reading...</a>Bank of EnglandRecessionCredit crunchBusinessQuantitative easingEconomic recoverySun, 19 Jul 2009 23:05:30 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jul/20/quantative-easing-charlie-beanLarry Elliott2009-07-19T23:05:30ZComic-book economics and the markets | Larry Elliotthttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jul/06/economy-recession-banking-larry-elliott
Traders' faith is touching, but no one knows what will happen next<p>It was a familiar story in the comics of yesteryear. A footballer stricken by terrible injury would drag himself on to the pitch for a cup final and score a stunning hat trick to win the match when all looked lost.</p><p>Real life is not like that, although judging by the rally in the financial markets this spring, many traders believe that it is. Here's the position. The global financial system has suffered a near-mortal blow. Credit dried up, banks collapsed and had to be rescued by the taxpayer. The crisis spread from the banks to the real economy, leading to a decline in output just as steep as that during the Great Depression.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jul/06/economy-recession-banking-larry-elliott">Continue reading...</a>Credit crunchGlobal recessionFinancial crisisBusinessSun, 05 Jul 2009 23:09:46 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jul/06/economy-recession-banking-larry-elliottPhotograph: Martin ArglesAlistair Darling aims to keep the City at the centre of global finance amid cry for banking reforms. Photograph: Martin ArglesPhotograph: Martin ArglesAlistair Darling aims to keep the City at the centre of global finance amid cry for banking reforms. Photograph: Martin ArglesLarry Elliott, economics editor2009-07-05T23:09:46ZLabour's stock may rise as the recovery picks up - but beware the sucker's rally | Larry Elliotthttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jun/08/larry-elliott-gordon-brown-spending
Brown wants an uplift in spending, but structural issues need attention<p>Shares in Gordon Brown have never been lower. In the same way that the British banking system was a day away from complete meltdown last October, the next 24 hours will decide whether the prime minister survives or goes bust.</p><p>A punter with an appetite for risk might conclude that this penny stock is now worth a flutter. After a calamitous couple of months, all the bad news is already in the price. The period of maximum danger – in the immediate aftermath of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jun/04/james-purnell-resigns-gordon-brown-cabinet" title="James Purnell">James Purnell</a>'s resignation – has passed. Having been battle-hardened during the struggle to keep the banks alive last autumn, Downing Street was able to wrong-foot the rebels.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jun/08/larry-elliott-gordon-brown-spending">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsGordon BrownCredit crunchBank of EnglandInterest ratesBankingLehman BrothersAlistair DarlingFred GoodwinMervyn KingPoliticsBusinessPre-budget reportSun, 07 Jun 2009 23:33:30 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jun/08/larry-elliott-gordon-brown-spendingLarry Elliott, economics editor2009-06-07T23:33:30ZIt's not bankers Labour is watching, it's youhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/may/10/neo-liberalism-labour-policy-larry-elliott
Once the party curbed the market to benefit the people – now the opposite is true<p>Here's how things stand. The follies of the big banks have caused the ­steepest plunge in output since the second world war. The economy is showing signs of stabilisation, owing largely to emergency cuts in interest rates and taxpayers' billions being used to prop up a ­financial system on the brink of collapse. Unemployment is rising, and it is rising most rapidly for the blameless, not the wretched bankers.</p><p>Even before the recession began, incomes for those at the bottom of the pile were below the level of three years ago. The longer Labour has been in power the slower incomes have grown. Inequality is higher than under Thatcher. Child poverty has increased in the past three years and the public finances are shot to pieces.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/may/10/neo-liberalism-labour-policy-larry-elliott">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsCredit crunchRecessionBusinessLabourEconomic policyDNA databasePoliticsSurveillancePrivacyUK newsPovertyInequalitySocial mobilitySocietySun, 10 May 2009 22:32:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/may/10/neo-liberalism-labour-policy-larry-elliottPhotograph: David Moir/REUTERSWith its enthusiasm for identity cards, closed-circuit surveillance and a national DNA database, this government has shown its distaste for the liberal state. Photograph: David Moir/ReutersPhotograph: David Moir/REUTERSWith its enthusiasm for identity cards, closed-circuit surveillance and a national DNA database, this government has shown its distaste for the liberal state. Photograph: David Moir/ReutersLarry Elliott, economics editor2009-05-10T22:32:01ZMexico's symptoms signal a wider malaisehttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/may/03/larry-elliott-swine-flu
As in the 1400s, disease and climate change weaken an economy's immune system<p>The deepening crisis led, inevitably, to a search for scapegoats. Those deemed responsible for the toxic waste were identified and 16 were rounded up and taken to be beaten and harangued in the public square.</p><p>No, this is not what lies in store for those who presided over the decline and fall of the global banking industry but the fate of millers and bakers in Paris found guilty during the Great Famine of the early 14th century of adulterating flour with animal droppings. The French could stage a good demo even then.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/may/03/larry-elliott-swine-flu">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsGlobal recessionCredit crunchBusinessSwine fluMexicoWorld newsFluLife and styleAmericasSun, 03 May 2009 21:13:33 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/may/03/larry-elliott-swine-fluLarry Elliott, economics editor2009-05-03T21:13:33Z