SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: The Hobbit seeks box office gold

Fantasy fans can return to Middle Earth once again in The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [HOBT2]. The feature adaptation of thr classic J.R.R. Tolkien novel was originally split into two films until director Peter Jackson [PJACK] and Warner Bros. decided to stretch the saga into a trilogy. What was already a thin story has been padded with new material including the return of the popular Legolas, played by Orlando Bloom [OBLOO], to fill out the usual 2 and a half hours running time. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey set the December opening weekend record last year at $84.6 million. However, the goodwill from The Lord of the Rings is gone this time around, and the mainstream audience may not rush out for the middle portion of a trilogy. The Tolkien faithfuls will still be out in force, but the buzz has not match the excitement of last year. The competition is also a bit tougher this year. Playing in 3903 theater, T[HOBT2] may uncover $81 million.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas [MADCH] is Lionsgate’s sixth Tyler Perry [TPERR] film featuring Madea. The last installment, Tyler Perry's Madea Witness Protection grossed $25.4 million in June of 2012. Madea Goes To Jail scored the series’ highest debut with $41 million in February of 2009. The latest PG-13 rated comedy finds Madea heading to the countryside for the holidays and meeting Larry the Cable Guy [LCGUY]. Perry’s fanbase of older women has turned out consistently and we’re still one week away from the last weekend of Christmas shopping. Opening in 2193 theaters, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas may unwrap $26 million.

After rising to the top spot in its second weekend of wide release, Frozen [FROZE] will settle back down to third place. The Disney animated musical should trail off around 35% to $20 million.

Despite a slightly better opening weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire [HGAM2] has been decaying at a faster rate than the original The Hunger Games. Catching Fire may peter out 45% in its fourth weekend to $15 million.