The problem is that I've been away from Vancouver for at least a year and I never had any party connections. My prediction has no authority, but here goes:

On balance he'll go for it. While diving through politics sites I found an interview in which he was "frustrated" about the last loss. And he has particular reason for doing so; he represents New Westminster, white but with significant Asian inflows, and he tries to engage with these immigration groups. To see the BCNDP get destroyed due to lack of connections within Asian communities, though only one factor, is troubling because it can be changed...

And yet I don't think he will. Either he's in or David Eby (who beat Clark in her riding last election), and Julian has enough of a career to not to waste time navigating the party elites backdoors. He already refused to run for federal leader in 2012 out of deference for Topp, in my opinion.

Of course pundits will spin this into a general "no one wants to be NDP leader!" narrative, but it's more subtle than it looks. The executive until the 2013 election was still ran by brass from the Clark days (Sihota, Dix) and for good reason. But it has been fifteen years, and people like the federal MPs are nowhere near that group. Julian was a community activist; Donnelly environmental. They're closer to Green MLA Andrew Weaver than anything.

In wake of the election, the 90s generation have a candidate; Mike Farnworth, who ran last election on a credibility platform. You're going to hear party members say he'll be coronated, but who knows? That the BCNDP has not been able to articulate a winning coalition means no one knows what the ideal candidate should be.

EDIT: Kennedy Stewart (MP Burnaby-Douglas) is still thinking. But this is more out of necessity, since Burnaby North-Seymour next election will screw him hard.

Of course pundits will spin this into a general "no one wants to be NDP leader!" narrative, but it's more subtle than it looks. The executive until the 2013 election was still ran by brass from the Clark days (Sihota, Dix) and for good reason. But it has been fifteen years, and people like the federal MPs are nowhere near that group. Julian was a community activist; Donnelly environmental. They're closer to Green MLA Andrew Weaver than anything.

In wake of the election, the 90s generation have a candidate; Mike Farnworth, who ran last election on a credibility platform. You're going to hear party members say he'll be coronated, but who knows? That the BCNDP has not been able to articulate a winning coalition means no one knows what the ideal candidate should be.

EDIT: Kennedy Stewart (MP Burnaby-Douglas) is still thinking. But this is more out of necessity, since Burnaby North-Seymour next election will screw him hard.

He doesn't have to run in Burnaby-Seymour, I think they can all shuffle around to have at least marginal ridings to defend.

On a related note, Marois said recently that the budget may not come down till April instead of the usual March. Confidence vote would be about a week afterwards. As with Ontario, expect the third party to be trigger shy until they aren't. Saves everyone the letdown.