China to become net oil product exporter?

A senior official of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has suggested that China is on a long-term track to becoming a net exporter of petroleum products to the Middle East.

During a conference presentation of the long term outlook for oil product supply and demand in the Chinese domestic markets, Ding forecast that Chinese annual oil product consumption would rise from 286 million t in 2013 to 360 million t in 2020 and 440 million t in 2030. Meanwhile, annual fuel production capacity at Chinese oil refineries will grow from 296 million t in 2013 to 390 million t in 2020 and 440 million t in 2030.

As a result of this growth, China’s margin of fuel production capacity in excess of domestic requirements will widen from 10 million t to 50 million t.

CNPC Director of Research Ding Shaoheng said: “China could at some point become a net exporter of fuel products to Arab countries”. However, the country is likely to remain a net importer of Middle East crude for the foreseeable future.

Product demand trends

Ding has projected annual growth in Chinese gasoline demand averaging 7% from 2013 to 2020 and 3% for the following decade. Kerosene demand will expand more rapidly, at an average annual growth rate of 9% to 2020 and 6% between 2020 – 2030.

In contrast, growth in domestic diesel consumption is likely to be much less pronounced, averaging just 0.4%/y until 2020, and to contract o.4%/y in the following decade. Meanwhile, demand for alternative transportation fuels will soar.