Tagged: forecast

An XXL-sized swell is about to collide with the ASP again this year, this time at the 2012 Volcom Fiji Pro. With conditions forecast to top out around 12 feet at 17 seconds, this upcoming swell is expected to be a touch smaller than 2011’s tube-fest that produced both Monster Tube and Ride of the Year XXL award nominations. This time around though, Kelly doesn’t have to skip the event to score massive Cloudbreak.

Here’s a look at how the primary swell data stacks up, with the 2011 swell first, followed by the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Long-period (20-second) forerunner energy is expected early Friday morning, with swell heights building throughout the day and reaching 12-feet by dark. Solid SSW energy continues to pour in on Saturday, with consistent swell conditions of 12 feet at 16 seconds (208°) expected.

While this swell isn’t expected to reach last year’s peak of 14 feet at 17 seconds, it will provide the largest surf contested so far by the ASP elite during the 2012 season. If the footage from last year’s swell is any indication, it’s definitely going to be a webcast worth tuning into.

The latest Wavewatch forecast shows a sizable northwest swell building in the East Pacific. Keep an eye on this storm to see how things develop, as this is currently at the tail end of the model’s 180-hour range and is subject to revision. Given favorable conditions, initial estimates place the swell’s arrival in Hawaii on the 25th of March.

March 18th Update – Major Downgrade in the Forecast

Well, there’s a reason why the long-range models are subject to revision. 54 hours later and the large NW system that was previously forecast has vanished. The forecast now shows moderate NNW and NNE energy building on Wednesday into Thursday of this week, with swell conditions of 5-6 feet at 10-11 seconds expected.

The 2012 Pipe Challenge, the first event on the 2012 IBA World Tour, is set to kick-off tomorrow with an unbelievable forecast. A solid northwest swell is expected to build quickly Wednesday afternoon, likely pushing the limits of what Pipeline can handle, with potential for some 2nd reef wash throughs late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Here’s a look at the latest 5-day forecast for the Waimea Bay station (@buoy51201). As you can see, long-period northwest surf in the 6-10+ range is expected through Saturday, with east to east-northeast winds increasing in strength into the weekend.

Look for a variety of Pipe and Backdoor waves to kick off the event tomorrow, but as the swell increases overnight into Thursday morning, expect the rights to start shutting down as swell conditions peak in the 10 feet at 15 seconds range.

The biggest, baddest surf will definitely be on Thursday, so be sure to tune-in to the live webcast for all the action. For more information, check out the IBA World Tour website.

The long-range model is subject to revision, but the forecast for Half Moon Bay is currently showing swell conditions approaching 23 feet at 15 seconds (WNW 292°) by Saturday afternoon (1/21).

We’ll be keeping an eye on the models to see how this swell develops over the next few days.

January 19th Update: Swell Sightly Downgraded

The swell is a bit smaller than initially forecast, with swell conditions at @buoy46006 now expected to peak Friday afternoon at 29 feet at 13 seconds (W 266°). The Half Moon Bay buoy is expected to build rapidly on Saturday and peak in the evening at 21 feet at 14 seconds (WNW 290°).

Hawaii surf forecast update for December 29th, 2011: A little something for everyone over the next seven days. Moderate northwest surf continues into the weekend, with improving conditions as the wind backs off. Monday, January 2nd is looking fun, with a fresh NNW swell and light easterly winds expected. Wednesday will see high surf advisory conditions, with gusty NE tradewinds in the 15-20 knot range.

Moderate northwest surf is expected to linger into the weekend, with biggest conditions this morning. A slight reinforcement is expected on Saturday, with a larger North-Northwest pulse (8 feet at 15 seconds, 330°) building New Year’s Day into Monday.

Hawaii surf forecast update for December 13th, 2011: After a few days of strong northeast winds and lackluster surf, get ready for another round of solid northwest swells, with surf heights forecast to get progressively larger throughout the week.

Summary: Fun northwest swell for the north shore on Wednesday, slightly bigger with better winds on Thursday, then advisory level surf on Friday. The northwest swell slowly fades through the weekend, so there will be leftovers for the weekend warriors, but east-northeast trade winds will be increasing in strength, so expect additional wind swell and surface texture.

At the moment, northeast wind swell is still dominant, but a new long-period northwest pulse is slowly filling in underneath it. This swell is forecast to continue building overnight, with conditions at the Waimea Bay station expected to reach 4 feet at 14 seconds (323°) by Wednesday morning, and moderate east to east-northeast winds in the 10-13 knot range blowing throughout the day.

Thursday, December 15th: A northwest reinforcement bumps surf heights up a notch on Thursday, with swell conditions expected to peak mid-morning at 6 feet at 14 seconds (322°). This swell holds throughout the day, with steady east winds at 10 knots. A fading, short-period northeast wind swell component will also be in the water, with energy in the 3 feet at 7 seconds range (53°).

Friday, December 16th: Surf heights continue their ascent on Friday, building rapidly throughout the day to advisory levels. The swell is currently expected to peak Friday evening at 11 feet at 14 seconds (319°), with east-northeast (78°-68°) winds forecast to increase in strength to 15 knots as the day progresses.

While wave heights will easily be biggest on Friday, the moderate winds could make for some tough, side-shore conditions, depending on where you surf. The winds are only expected to get stronger as we move into the weekend (approaching 20 knots), which means more side-shore chop, and an increasing northeast wind swell component on Saturday and Sunday as the northwest swell slowly fades through Monday.

Hawaii surf forecast update for November 30th, 2011: A new northwest swell arrives today, with the Northwest Hawaii station (@buoy51101) already reporting 7.2 feet at 14.8 seconds (337°) as of 6:00 a.m. HST. Surf heights are expected to increase throughout the day and into Thursday, reaching the 8-10+ foot range late Thursday to early Friday.

Winds could be a little sketchy late Thursday and Friday however, as they are expected to turn slightly more north-northeast during that time. The good news is that they aren’t expected to be very strong, hovering in the 10 knot range, and turn to the east by Saturday.

Another northwest swell is forecast to arrive on Tuesday, but with a shorter duration than the current pulse. The Waimea Bay forecast shows swell conditions peaking mid-day on Tuesday (8 feet at 12 seconds, 316°), before fading overnight. By dawn on Wednesday (12/7), conditions are expected to drop to 5.6 feet at 12.1 seconds, with a consistent swell direction of 318°.

The wind forecast is excellent at the moment, with light southeast to east-southeast winds expected all day on Tuesday, providing gentle offshore conditions for the incoming swell.

Overall this should be a fun-sized swell for much of the North Shore, with a great northwest swell direction. If this first, larger pulse manages to clear some sand over the next few days, it could pave the way for a fun Pipe Masters warm-up session next Tuesday.

Out the back, the long-range forecast is showing another pulse brewing in the north Pacific. This swell continues to develop, and long-range forecasts are subject to revision, but at the moment it looks like another round of sizable northwest surf will arrive on Friday, December 9th. Check back this weekend for an update.

For real-time swell conditions we recommend following the Waimea Bay station on Twitter (@buoy51201). Also, the Northwest Hawaii station (@buoy51101) is a good indicator of incoming swell. Located about 270 nautical miles northwest of the North Shore of O‘ahu, it will provide a 10-12 hour lookahead depending on swell period and direction.

Hawaii – A series of large northwest swells have popped up in the forecast window, with separate pulses expected on Wednesday into Thursday and another next Monday. The long-range models are also showing a big swell brewing in the north Pacific that could bring the largest surf of the season so far later next week.

Looking at the forecast for the Northwest Hawaii station (@buoy51101), the next northwest swell is expected to build slowly through Thursday, peaking around 11 feet at 14 seconds (323°). This particular station provides about an 8-10 hour lead time from the north shore of O‘ahu, so expect conditions to be largest late Thursday afternoon.

The winds are expected to also increase in strength on Thursday however, with moderate northeast trade winds forecast. Those winds should turn slightly more east by Friday afternoon, before easing into a light east to east-southeast flow by the weekend.

Further out, the second northwest pulse is currently expected to build rapidly next Monday, with primary swell conditions approaching the 13 feet at 14 seconds range (323°) at Buoy 51101. If the models hold up, this swell will be larger than the first, with moderate east winds providing more favorable conditions. Given the travel time to O‘ahu, expect the surf to build late Monday afternoon into Tuesday (12/6).

Behind that swell, there is an even larger pulse currently brewing in the north Pacific. Surf from this storm should arrive around December 8th, which would coincide with the start of the 2011 Billabong Pipe Masters. Keep an eye on the forecast models to see how this swell shapes up over the next few days.

All three pulses have potential to produce the first good Pipeline swell of the season. If things turn on, be on the lookout for the first round of entries in the 2011-2012 Steep & Deep Pipeline Photo Challenge. It’s not too late to register either, surfers have until November 30th to sign up.

The long range forecast is finally showing some promise, with potential for the first real Pipe swell of the season on Thursday, December 1st. Models are showing back-to-back storms brewing to the Northwest, which are expected to produce long-period swells late next week.

First things first though, a big north swell is expected to build rapidly late Saturday into Sunday, with conditions peaking early Sunday morning (13 feet at 14 seconds 349°). Strong east-northeast trade winds are also expected on Sunday, which ushers in a short-period northeast wind swell (5 feet at 7 seconds 46°).

Sunday’s swell will be the largest of the season so far, with spots that favor a northerly direction seeing the biggest surf. Conditions slowly fade through Wednesday, but that’s when the next pulse kicks in.

The long-range forecast is currently showing a new northwest (324°) swell building throughout the day next Wednesday, with conditions expected to reach 9 feet at 14 seconds by dark.

The 324° swell direction, along with the long period and large swell heights, could result in the first real Pipe swell of the 2011-2012 season. However, coming off a larger straight north swell, sand (and backwash) is likely to be an issue. There is another pulse stacked up behind this one however, which could actually see better conditions if the first northwest swell starts grooming the sand at Ehukai.

All of this is good news for the second jewel of the Triple Crown of Surfing, the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach, which will no doubt see much more action than the Reef Hawaiian Pro (congrats Taj).