PARIS — Get ready for part two of the Macron-Trump spectacle, this time on the shores of the Potomac.

French President Emmanuel Macron is due to receive full state honors in Washington on Monday, nine months after he rolled out a literal red carpet for Donald Trump on Paris’ Avenue des Champs Elysées.

As they gather for a largely symbolic three-day visit, expect more displays of public affection between two leaders who once stunned the world with their never-ending handshake, and talk on the phone constantly, and even offer the odd declaration of “love,” as Trump reportedly did ahead of his visit last July.

Whether such warm feelings are sincere — it’s politics, folks — what lies behind them are geopolitical forces pushing Paris and Washington together on the world stage. Macron is determined to restore France’s greatness, and Trump’s friendship elevates Paris as a nuclear power with a seat on the United Nations Security Council at a time when Britain — usually Washington’s preferred ally — is sidelined by the Brexit process, and Germany’s Angela Merkel is as far from the U.S. president’s good graces as she was close to Barack Obama.

“Macron has become Trump’s main European interlocutor when it comes to addressing international crises” — Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer from the German Marshall Fund

Trump, for his part, can use a friend on the international stage, one who is not Merkel with her country’s “very bad” trade surpluses. The Donald must also appreciate the fact that Macron never, ever says a bad word about him in public. Such forces were already in play last July, when the two leaders had their last friendly meeting in Paris. But they’ve only gotten stronger, as domestic problems and global crises ranging from Syria to North Korea and Iran push the two leaders into each others arms.

With opposition forces challenging them at home on both sides of the Atlantic, the two leaders must be looking forward to a statesmanlike breather on the Potomac. A year into his presidency, the French president’s sheen as a political prodigy and shining light of European liberalism have worn off. In France, he’s up against grinding rail strikes and volatile poll numbers, while on the European stage his efforts to jumpstart a new wave of integration have gotten bogged down in a morass of German ambivalence.

Trump has his own issues, of which a series of legal probes are only the topmost. Against that backdrop, the two men are likely to play down transatlantic tensions over issues like Trump’s steel tariffs and the Macron-led plans to slap a hefty tax on the revenue of digital giants. Instead, they’ll be looking to highlight Franco-American alignment, particularly on hot-topic security issues such as North Korea and the Iran deal, where French officials have said that Paris shares some of Trump’s reticence about the architecture of a current nuclear deal, if not the urge to scrap it altogether.

“We all recognize that Macron as probably, if not the person the president is closest to in the world of counterparts, at least certainly one of them,” a senior White House administration official told journalists ahead of the meeting.

Merkel? Not so much.

Strategic BFFs

Ahead of the trip, French officials were deadpan about what might actually be achieved: “We hope there will he substantive discussions,” said an aide to the president, adding that in this case, the symbolism of a state visit was the message.

Macron and Trump are due to share a private dinner Monday evening, followed by a bilateral meeting early Tuesday. They’ll then meet respective members of their Cabinets, before attending a state dinner Tuesday evening for which the White House has imposed an unusually restricted guest list.

On Wednesday, Macron will give a speech to Congress that’s likely to be the highlight of the trip: Will he dog-whistle to the chamber’s Democrats, or avoid taking sides? Knowing Macron, he’ll swing for the rafters with sweeping appeals for unity on his favorite topics: climate change, the need for reciprocity in international trade, and cooperation among great powers against terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

In between moments of political showmanship, policy will get discussed — particularly the Iran nuclear deal. Ahead of the trip, French officials said they remained concerned that Trump and his new national security adviser, John Bolton, would tear up the current arrangement, triggering a security crisis that Israel could seek to settle via preemptive strikes on Iranian installations. Instead, the visit should be a chance for a meeting of minds, after Macron inched toward Trump by saying that the current deal was flawed on several accounts, particularly on the development of ballistic missiles.

The senior administration official said that Iran would be a “major topic” of discussion between the two leaders, with European leaders including Macron “working hard” to address U.S. concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile program, and worries about the current deal’s expiration date.

“What he [President Trump] is interested in is hearing President Macron’s perspectives on the way ahead towards achieving joint goals and joint objectives in person, face to face,” the official said.

The latest transatlantic ructions over Trump’s trade tariffs will also be in focus after Macron and Merkel — who’s due to fly into Washington on Friday, just days after Macron leaves — both vowed to tell the U.S. president that Europe would not stand for steel tariffs that could disrupt international trade flows.

While Macron may raise the issue from the podium during a joint press conference — his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin showed he’s not afraid of broaching thorny topics in public — he won’t let trade overshadow the visit. Instead, expect him to engage in some good-natured trolling on climate change, as he expected to do by delivering Trump a gift of a seedling, according to French media.

Yet, despite the potential for strife, it’s unlikely either leader will let problems overshadow their friendship fest, or ruin a chance to troll other world leaders ranging from Britain’s Theresa May to Putin.

Behind their closeness is, first and foremost, a strategic bond.

Angela Merkel is not on the best of terms with Macron, left, or Trump | John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images

Trump, as Macron likes to recall, is the leader of the world’s premier superpower, a “premier partner” for France. And Macron — who has positioned himself as Europe’s de facto leader with Britain locked up in Brexit — wants France to stand at his side as the European Union’s soon-to-be sole military power with a seat on the United Nations Security Council, nuclear capability and the will to intervene where others will not.

The build-up to the April 14 strikes on Syria’s chemical facilities only underscored Franco-American mutual interest, and the lesser status of other partners.

While Britain participated, Macron and Trump used the military situation to deepen their relationship in no fewer than seven phone calls since the start of March, according to accounts from the Elysée presidential palace. By contrast May, who has yet to receive Trump amid domestic opposition to his visiting the U.K., has testy relations with the U.S. president, who reportedly keeps cutting her off when they speak on the phone.

Merkel barely featured in the Syrian discussions. Characteristically for intervention-averse Germany, she did not order participation in the strikes, commenting on them after the fact as “necessary and appropriate.”

Once the missiles had hit their targets, Macron seized on a chance to drive home his point: While others may waver, France remains a red-blooded beacon of Western power. Paris had intervened in Syria for the “honor of the international community,” he told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, over protests from some MEPs.

Macron and Trump know they are important strategic partners for one another | Patrick Kovarik/AFP via Getty Images

Such muscle-flexing comes at a time when both Washington and Paris have issues with Merkel.

Trump never warmed to the European stateswoman, and he has repeatedly excoriated Germany’s trade surpluses as being “very bad.”

Macron, who has echoed Trump’s trade criticisms, has his own reasons to be frustrated with Merkel. His plans for reforming the European Union — from the possible creation of a eurozone budget and finance minister post to a European tax on digital companies’ revenue — are running into a wall of German reluctance.

Merkel “is not moving in the way he thinks she should be moving,” an adviser to the French president was cited by Reuters as saying, in rare public criticism.

All the more reason to pal up with Trump in D.C. The two leaders are due to share a state dinner in the White House on Tuesday evening.

Playing Trump?

One outstanding question about the Macron-Trump relationship that fascinates commentators in Europe: Does the French president really like Trump, or is he just “playing him”?

European commentators suggested as much last summer when, during Trump’s visit to Paris, Macron mimicked his guest’s signature thumbs-up move to TV cameras.

There may be no definitive answer. Macron is a one-time stage actor who loves to quote classical French playwrights from memory and, as he told a pair of French interviewers last weekend, has “no friends.”

Macron may not be out to “play” Trump, but he is always playing some sort of role.

Quizzed about Macron’s apparent affection for Trump, the French president’s aides hint at a form of mind game: Having studied the U.S. leader’s psychology, they said he has determined that showing personal affection, keeping Trump close and avoiding any direct criticism that could inflame his temper were the best ways of keeping Washington on side.

Active closeness has been Macron’s strategy to avoid letting the “centrifugal” forces of mutual suspicion drive a wedge between France, the U.S. and other powers. In other words, Macron may not be out to “play” Trump, but he is always playing some sort of role.

Still, opportunism only goes so far in explaining the relationship. Just as British and German voters dislike Trump, the French overwhelmingly disapprove of the U.S. president (as many as nine out of 10, according to one poll).

But, unlike Merkel or May, the French leader is ready to ignore such feelings completely. When Trump was last in Paris, Macron took rare pains to show a form of quasi-filial affection for the U.S. president. He called him a “friend” in public. Such displays may not be strictly necessary, if his goal is simply to maintain France’s position in the transatlantic relationship.

It does not hurt that, on the whole, the French are less prickly about executive use of force abroad than the British or the Germans.

The question that remains is whether Macron will provide a rerun of his chummy performance next week. As political animals, the two leaders have another trait in common.

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Robert Consuelo

I sincerely hope that Macron is playing Trump and does not have his head deep inside his butt. But if that’s the case Macron has become as vile and as stupid as Trump.

Posted on 4/23/18 | 4:10 AM CEST

Capt Europe

Good morning my fellow Europeans!

“is Macron playing Trump”

LOL.

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Oh boy that was funny.

Posted on 4/23/18 | 7:32 AM CEST

Ronald Grünebaum

Journalists would not be journalists if they were capable of creative thinking.
Thus it has to be a rehash of the good old Bismarckian trope of competing nations inspired by their leaders.
Anyone with a bit of brain can see that things are far more complex.
Maybe Macron and Merkel have decided to play good cop – bad cop with the dimmest Potus in living memory?

Posted on 4/23/18 | 12:01 PM CEST

Irene Duym

With Theresa May stuck in Brexit ordeals and Angela Merkel weakened by the German election, Macron, who honoured Trump in Paris on 14th July, has acquired credibility. In addition, both Macron and Trump were elected “unexpectedly”. It is my feeling that the US President, in turmoil for different reasons, may appreciate Macron’s willingness to respect him as the leader of the US. So, even if they are very different, they may get along well and tackle issues they disagree upon (Climate Change, Syria, the EU, NATO) to reach conclusions acceptable to both of them. Mr Trump needs allies and so does Mr Macron. They are ambitious, for different reasons, but they both want to achieve results to their benefit.

Posted on 4/23/18 | 2:50 PM CEST

lib crit

Trump really has small hands on Macron’s back.

Posted on 4/23/18 | 3:06 PM CEST

Trisul Kiboko

“Does the French president really like Trump, or is he just “playing him”?”

It makes no difference, in either case Macron will try to do what is good for France and the EU.

Posted on 4/23/18 | 3:12 PM CEST

Donal O'Brien

Att duym

Do you make excuses for everyone and everything you say
Where are you from?