Saab AB’s plans to remain a force in combat-jet making were up in the air a few years ago until Switzerland agreed in 2011 to a joint purchase with Sweden of the Gripen NG, or next generation fighter. The order gave the Swedish defense group’s key project a much-needed boost.

Two and a half years on and Swiss voters have rejected the plan, voting against a funding law that the Berne needed if it was going to spend 3.1 billion Swiss francs ($3.5 billion) on 22 of the single-engine combat planes.

Saab’s share price, which had risen about 80% since Switzerland signed up, was 3.6% down Monday as investors digested the 53% vote against the funding law.

A South African Air Force Gripen flying over the sea.

Saab

Yet the Swedish company’s chief executive Hakan Buskhe said he’s sticking with a forecast of around 400 sales of the jet over the next 15 to 20 years. The company’s near-term financial guidance also will remain unchanged, he said.

Mr. Buskhe’s confidence isn’t unwarranted.

Brazil last year agreed to buy 36 of the new planes, though the contract still needs to be finalized.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea amid the protracted political crisis in Ukraine as well as the Russian air force’s repeated long-range bomber patrols near Sweden’s borders have also heightened domestic security concerns. The government has increased its military budget. Sweden’s Gripen NG purchase, pared back to 60 planes during more austere military budget days, is being increased to 70 aircraft.

Sweden and Switzerland committed to taking 82 aircraft when they agreed to jointly pursue the program in 2011. Even after Switzerland’s decision to drop out, the order backlog for the plane now stands at 106 units, Mr. Buskhe says.

Production of the Eurofighter Typhoon combat jet, one of the losers in the Swiss campaign, could end in early 2018 without additional exports, just as the new version of the Swedish jet enters service. Production of the Boeing Co. F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, which lost out to Saab in Brazil, may cease even earlier.

Saab sees the plan to deliver the first of the combat planes to Sweden in 2018 as unaffected. “It is full speed ahead,” Mr. Buskhe said.

Up next for Saab and its combat plane rivals are competitions in Malaysia, which is exploring leasing planes as a precursor to a purchase, and a battle in Denmark where the Gripen NG faces the Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Boeing’s Super Hornet, and the Eurofighter Typhoon built by a consortium of Airbus Group NV, BAE Systems PLC, and Finmeccanica SpA.