Thursday, August 19, 2010

The roaring GDP, a soaring Ringgit

All politics and no play ... Why don't we talk about the 8.9 percent expansion in our GDP during the 2nd quarter? A little slower than the first quarter's 10.1 per cent, but charging ahead nonetheless. In a nutshell, our Manufacturing sector grew by 15.9 per cent, Services 7.3 per cent, Construction 4.1 per cent, and Agri 2.4 per cent.

Malaysia's GDP is expected to expand by more than 6 per cent this year compared with Indonesia 6 per cent, Thailand 7 per cent, India 9.1 per cent, and Singapore 13-15 per cent.

I like Op Ed's simple analysis best, read here. And his little prayer for political maturity:

"The disconnect between an announcement of stellar economic performance and realities on the ground is symptomatic of an economic management that is unable to eradicate income inequality in society."

"There is not going to be much celebration on the streets as the economic reality for the majority of Malaysian households is different, especially when they have had to put up with a few price hikes in the last two years."

This is a superb reminder that ANY economist in any university will admit: A GDP number is so inexact it does not reflect any palpable or real welfare improvement for the ordinary people.

A high GDP per capita for ALL is what you should aim for. But this is still so low, especially for more than 50% of Malaysia's population!

Also other things like healthcare system and environmental quality and democratic freedoms DO NOT come automatically with an 8.9% showing.

Just open your eyes and look around.

Japan with negative economic growth FOR YEARS AND YEARS still has high environmental quality and high standards of living.

So who are you bullshitting?

Try harder with the spin-doctoring, Rocky. But first, take some lessons in economics.

I wish Bank Negara publish two tiers GDP per capita this year. One for the Chinese and the other for the rest( Malays, Telegu, Tamil, Javanese, Minangs, Melanau, Senoi,Pas kelantan, PAS UMNO, Selangor PKR Malays, Selangor UMNO,...and so on).

What is the use even if we achieve high growth but the majority is still in the hands of the Chinese? I don't think Malays contribute more than 20% of the total result, so we can never reach 30% target.

@everybody2Q real GDP is the highest quarterly number ever recorded for Malaysia. However, as has happened for the past decade, I suspect most of the gains was in corporate earnings, not returns to labour.

One warning sign from the 2Q numbers - nominal GDP (which is a better indicator for income) fell compared to 1Q2010, and is still 6.2% below the peak recorded in 2008. So there's still quite a bit of work to do.

@tomskut,

Gold is now at all time highs against almost all commodities, not just currencies. That suggests a speculative bubble to me. Take care not to get caught.

It must be viewed positively that the nation is showing growth in that critical measure - GDP - but this is also a government that conjures figures by plucking stats out of thin air.

Early days with Najib as new steward, I had cautioned the need to take advantage of economic uncertainty, US and EU both. Even today, this is an opportune time for M'sia to grow in tandem with the rest of Asia while economies of the 'North' sort out problems of their own making.

IMO, there is more pain to be experience for all in the US while the shambles of the EU is not unsimiliar to that of the States - bottomline - it would take time ie 3-5 yrs before to see levels of consumption return to previous heights.

Geographically, M'sia's proximity to Asia's growth engines of China, Japan, S.Korea and Taiwan, has more than made up for tapering exports to Northnern economies. And even if their economies were to take a turn for the worst, our export figures and overall performance of KLSE's Index should not suffer unduly.

In short, there is no bearing, no excuses to lay blame on depress economies in the States and EU (though both UK and German economies are holding up well).

Granted, our "ringgit"(RM) has seen gains against the greenback BUT so has other Asian currencies.

Beginning of the year, the "Yen" has strengthen from +/- 100Y to 85Y level to the greenback. Similarly, our RM has appreciated to RM$3.12 as of Thurs, starting the year at RM$3.50 level. There might be a little more upside should more institutional money were to 'park' their money in M'sia. Of late, there has been sustained buying interest on the KLSE, and that interest stems from lousy overall sentiment in develop economies.

Noted the gain on the "RM" but that upside is of little significance to 'Joe Public' - unless if one has children studying abroad, anyone planning a vacation abroad (taking advantage of a strengthening RM), also beneficial to institution's holding debt, notes etc in US/foreign denomination but exporter's would hold different views entirely to an appreciating RM.

With the US and EU both facing fiscal challenges, this is an opportune time for Asia and M'sia to stamp our mark on world commerce. From an investment pov, there are plenty of bright spots in our domestic market - many SMI's holding strong in an uncertain trading environment. If not for income derived from CPO, our economy would be in the same shit hole as say, Greece.

The plantation sector in the KLSE has anchored growth of the nation last 10-15 yrs and at current levels with CPO holding well at RM$2500/ton, the bigboys are laughing all the way to the bank. Yes, the KLK's, IOI, Utd Plant, Perlis Plt and even smaller co's ie Utd Malacca have been churning out remarkable numbers.

Shareholders have been paid handsome dividend with bonus issues for the offing too. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Sime Darby(ills already well documented) and Kulim (may soon have to sell down productive holdings to par down current debt to more manageable levels).

M'sia is currently 2nd only to Indonesia, producers of palm oil but fortunately, we make better use of the resource with a variety of downstream products, bringing in much needed foreign exchange. Happy to say, shareholders of noted plantation outfits have been rewarded amply for their investments, a bright spark on the local bourse, and long shall that be.

IMO, current valuation/stock price of KLK, IOI, PPB etc are on the high side, generous dividend may still prove fetching. Speculative, but I'm of the opinion the more expensive stocks are due for a bonus issue, like what IOI did, some 2 years back - bringing prices down to more 'friendly' qoutes for retail players.

It is my hope that our buoyant "RM" is further bolstered by institutional money(S'pore and beyond) parked within our local bourse.

Beyond the Palm Oil success story, proven blue chip's have proven resilient, even in a tough trading environment ie Panasonic M'sia, consistently show incremental sales, their output still makes M'sia the largest exporter's of air-cond units and white goods(consumer durables). Panasonic's success is reflected in its share price but it also pays the highest quantum of dividend that even the tobacco boys ie BAT, JTI can't match.

Caveat emptor, the few companies noted above are all very profitable companies that hold their own at any level, on the world stage. Foremost to investor's in the bottomline, and one can't go wrong in M'sia, for there are many stellar companies in varied sectors of industries.

A cursory look at 'cheaper' stocks, textile Hing Yiap, TanChong Motors, and most REIT's pay attractive yield though it must be said, REIT's prices are often 'stoic', with little potential for capital appreciation. And here's one for those 'fishing' penny stocks - plastic manufacturer Teck Seng, a Penang base outfit that has of late paid out a high precentage of profit in dividend.

Disclaimer, and again 'buyer beware', in as much as I take pleasure in 'talking up' KLSE as a whole, players need to throw caution and be selective in riding this roller coaster quest to seek returns. One to avoid and I quote - "UEM sets ambitious target of RM$35b revenue by 2015" but what takes the cake, CEO also forecast profit of RM$3bil - just like that figures conjured, plucked out of thin air. I duly hope this garbage of a government don't think up the same promises when computing our GDP numbers, knowing UEM and its UMNO pedigree.

Imagine our GDP numbers minus the circus act(corruption, leakages, money down the drain and outright 'curi'by you know who), the entire nation would be better off, anyway we slice the cake.

Imagine how better off we all would be ie. cheaper cars, lower tariff on power, toll etc in a Malaysia without them UMNO monkeys.

I guess we will soon find out, having already swallowed our medicine but still awaiting results.

Empirically, the steeper and deeper the recession, the faster the recovery. Both Thailand and Singapore suffered deeper and longer recessions than Malaysia did, hence no surprise that their recovery is also faster. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Indonesia is a different story - they did not fall into recession at all, because their exposure to international trade is very small, and it was the drop in global trade that caused this recession in the other three.

Also, Indonesia is far below in the scale of development than Malaysia (or Thailand for that matter). Since they've gotten their act together in terms of the right policies and reforms, their "normal" growth should be on par with Malaysia's as it was twenty years ago - don't be surprised to see them doing 7%-9% annually over the next decade.

@casper c

Nice analysis, but I should point out (as in my earlier comment) that the Ringgit has strengthened not only against the major currencies, but the rest of the Asian currencies as well.

Also, Indonesia beating us out as the No 1 producer of palm oil is partly due to Malaysian FDI. I don't remember the exact figures off hand, but half of KLK's plantations are in Indonesia, and around 40% of Sime Darby's, to quote two examples.

i know..it do sound humiliating..but guys, hishamh and SatD together with warrior231 are the people that rammed stiletto deep inside this cretin ass with their economic lesson, right?

so what else dignity left to cling on anymore in the subject here..ahh..i forgot, this thing do not have any maruah, ok right, understood..hahahaha..

Its a good thing malaysian bringing in SGD to counter the flowing out of RM to Indon, Bangla, Pakis, Philipines, India, China, Vietnam, Myanmar, Nepal etc.

hey, i thought its the singaporean that came to malaysia to cari makan buying all those groceries, eat like starving elephant & pumping cheap petrol here.. unfortunately, the only thing cheaper in singapore compared to malaysia are the pussy and the FOC skilmoron's ass in geylang..hahaha..

be it RM1 to SGD1 or anything nearer..the whole island would be dung into mega inflation shit and perhaps kebuluran..