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74
Communicating in an
Uncertain Environment
C H A P T E R 9
As the transportation planning industry strives to find ways to antici-
pate impacts under highly unstable conditions, planners and modelers
are also challenged to communicate this uncertainty to senior decision
makers and elected officials without the information appearing useless
and without providing projections that appear more solid than they are.
Billions of dollars of investments are at stake.
How does a responsible planning or modeling professional pres-
ent forecasts that are steeped in uncertainty without leaving decision
makers in high-risk situations and leaving stakeholders suspicious?
Conversely, when decision makers, businesses, or citizens are certain
that they know the best options for future investment, how do plan-
ning professionals constructively educate them so that they internalize that their certainty is
unfounded? Saying âI just donât know, but this is the best I can come up withâ is not useful.
Likewise, saying âI do knowâ is highly suspect and potentially unethical. How can transporta-
tion professionals effectively communicate in these difficult and changing times? This section
explores ways to leverage advances in neuroscience to provide enhanced communication that
benefits decisions makers and planners.
Decision-Making Continuum
In making decisions, executives and leaders have a continuum of options:
â¢ No-brainer decisions: These are decisions that have been made many times before. They have
a been-there-done-that quality. Because the future is like the past, there is little risk and little
new thought is required.
â¢ Calculated decisions: These are complicated decisions that can be calculated. Again, the
future is like the past, so historical experiences assist in calculating a future state with reason-
able certainty. Calibrated models support these kinds of decisions in transportation planning.
â¢ Nuanced decisions: These are the decisions for which data alone are not enough. Data and
analysis are only two of the inputs into a nuanced decision. Nonquantitative factors must also
be considered. Politicians and executives inhabit this world and routinely make decisions with
this level of uncertainty and risk.
â¢ Decisions in uncertainty: These are decisions made during periods of deep change. Hindsight
does not lead to foresight. Data provide minimal assistance. It is an uncertain and unnerving
time. This is the world in which transportation professionals live when it comes to AVs and
their impacts. Modeling is of limited value, past experience is of little use, and the future is
not yet clear.
Chapter Highlights
â¢ Provides guidance for how transporta-
tion planners and modelers can com-
municate about the uncertain future.
â¢ Distinguishes certainties from uncer-
tainties in a CAV future and presents
tips for talking about both.

Communicating in an Uncertain Environment 75
Planners, modelers, and leaders work inside this framework. Due to
confirmation bias (a shortcut in the brain in which new information
tends to be interpreted as confirmation of existing beliefs and habits),
they will try to force the changing world into their old framework. For
example, planners and modelers historically work with calculated deci-
sions. For years, models have used reasonably accurate data to provide
realistic predictions of a future state. Past was indeed prologue.
During uncertainty, planners and modelers naturally seek more data
because doing so fits their mental model. Given their habits, they expect
decisions to be calculated and will attempt to use models even when
data do not exist to support them. Otherwise, they are likely to feel
uncomfortable, which leads to reluctance to communicate with leaders.
Leadersâparticularly those with a political backgroundâlive with nuanced decisions. Each
day they face decisions in which data are an input but not necessarily the basis for the decision.
They understand the role of appearance, positioning, and juggling political risks. Trust is their
currency. They must maintain the trust of their constituents and colleagues, whose support they
need. They are likely to be comfortable in an uncertain environment because, for them, uncer-
tainty is normal. Their confirmation bias will cause them to view the implications of AV impacts
from the perspective of risk, perception, and messaging.
Today, however, planners, modelers, and leaders are being thrust into decision making in
deep uncertainty. Research in the field of neuroscience holds tips that provide a framework for
communicating during times of deep uncertainty.
Talking About Uncertainty
Simply put, the brain can be understood as having two electrical circuits: reward and threat.
The threat circuitry (via the amygdala) is more easily activated, is faster, and influences behav-
ior and reactivity quickly. With the slightest provocation, the threat circuit is set into motion.
There are five ways to activate either the threat or the reward circuits (Rock 2008), two of which
are most relevant here: certaintyâuncertainty and controlâlost control. The intent is to present
information to leaders in such a way that the reward circuitry is maximized and the threat cir-
cuitry is minimized. The goal is to intentionally communicate what is certain while being clear
about uncertainty and to emphasize where there is control while being honest about where there
is no control.
Certainty: What We Know
When communicating with leaders, a planner or modeler can discuss that for which there is
reasonable certainty. For example, the planner or modeler knows transportation trends, observes
investment patterns for AV technology, and can make reasonable estimates of high- and low-risk
transportation investments. While being careful not to overstate the surety of transportation
trends, planners and modelers generally know there is
â¢ Growth of the sharing economy,
â¢ Decline of auto ownership among younger adults, and
â¢ Preference for mixed-use communities in many urban areas.
They can observe that the AV industry
â¢ Is motivated by the private sector,
â¢ Receives heavy private investment in AV technology from large companies, and
Transportation planners and modelers
are challenged not only to finds ways
to anticipate impacts under highly
unstable conditions but also to com-
municate the uncertainty to decision
makers and policy makers.

76 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles
â¢ Has automotive companies positioning for a shifting auto ownership model and the growth
of transportation network providers.
Additionally, not all transportation investments carry equal risk. Low-risk investments are
those that are unlikely to be heavily affected by AV technology over the investmentâs life span.
They may include
â¢ Resurfacing and rehabilitation of existing roadways and bridges,
â¢ Projects within existing right of way,
â¢ Updating of traffic signal systems, and
â¢ Projects that can be completed quickly and have a short life span.
In short, reasonable certainty that AVs are on their way exists, and the planning and modeling
communities can provide guidance on the features and project types that are low risk and that
can proceed without undue concern.
Uncertainty: What We Do Not Know
Today, many unknowns about AVs and their impacts exist. To maintain trust with decision
makers and policy makers, it is essential to be honest and straightforward about uncertainties.
For example, for AVs, there is uncertainty about
â¢ The specific time horizon for AV entrance into the market,
â¢ The split between fleet and private ownership,
â¢ Market acceptance,
â¢ The speed of market penetration, and
â¢ The impact on travel (more or less VMT).
These unknowns create high-risk investments that may be significantly affected by AVs and have
high costs and long life cycles. These projects require more deliberation and may lend themselves
to an incremental decision-making approach.
High-risk investments may include
â¢ Extensive right-of-way purchase in an urban area;
â¢ Long-term agreements for operation of roadways or parking structures;
â¢ Large-scale widening projects, particularly in urban areas;
â¢ Large-scale transit projects in urban areas;
â¢ Projects that have a project development period; and
â¢ Projects that have a long life span.
Control: What We Have Control Over
Decision makers and policy makers have more control than they may think, and planners
and modelers can assist by highlighting these areas when communicating with them. Decision
makers control
â¢ Which projects to support and when;
â¢ The way they move forward, such as
â Proceeding with low-risk projects,
â Implementing exploratory projects, and
â Increasing their options by inserting incremental decision points into high-risk projects;
â¢ Which policies to implement and when; and
â¢ Development of messaging plans for high-risk investments.

Communicating in an Uncertain Environment 77
Control: Where to Take Control
Decision makers and policy makers can create control by adding flexibility to high-risk proj-
ects in the form of incremental decision points, thereby reducing the risk. At each decision point
in the project development process [programming; start of the environmental process; and start
of plan, specification, and estimate (PS&E) development immediately prior to letting], the proj-
ect can be reassessed to determine whether revisions are needed on the basis of the evolution of
the AV environment.
Choose Words Carefully
Fundamental to responsible communication during deep uncertainty is plannersâ choice of
language. Prior to communicating information on AVs and other related advances, planners
must be prudent in considering word choice. Planners and modelers should be cognizant of the
differences between fact and conjecture and between certain and probable, so that they avoid
predictions and bias toward assuredness.
Examples include the following wording:
1. Overly assured: âThe results of the modeling show that AVs will impact. . . .â
More accurate: âWe were simply exploring what might be possible, given how the models
are calibrated with todayâs data.â
2. Overly assured: âThe information from the survey says that the outcome will be. . . .â
More accurate: âAs with all human behavior, choices could change when people actually get
accustomed to the technology.â
3. Overly assured: âThe media report that company Xâs AVs will be on the road very soon.â
More accurate: âPlease note that, although what is trending in the media is encouraging,
there remain many issues to be resolved.â
4. Overly assured: âAs a planner, I am excited about the potential positive changes we can make
with this new technology.â
More accurate: âGiven what I just presented, we must be aware that the technology is pos-
sible, and it is probable that it will develop to maturity, but our expectations of impacts will
take much more time to be proven.â
Planners and modelers can (and must) be effective communicators to executives and leaders
during this time of deep uncertainty. They do so by (a) being aware of the differences in decision-
making approaches, (b) consciously framing their comments to leverage certainty versus uncer-
tainty and control versus no control in their discussions, and (c) choosing words responsibly
and carefully.

DOTs and regional MPOs are required to have a multimodal transportation plan with a minimum time horizon of 20 years under the requirements of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) requirements. This report explores ways to develop new planning and modeling processes that include CAVs in the transportation environment. The volume provides the details to NCHRP Research Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1.

The research report is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation that can be adapted for presentations to agency decision makers.

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