Russell Napier on Generational Cycles, Stocks Bear Market Bottoms and West Vs. East

Russell Napier (renown financial historian and consultant for CLSA) has articulated some fantastic insights on the generational cycle, bear market bottoms and currencies in recent years. So for this reason we decided to compile a ‘Russell Napier’s Greatest Hits’ video for you to enjoy. See below for the video and summary.

Summary:

The Q ratio (the market value of a company over the replacement value of its assets) and the CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE ratio) influence the supply and demand for physical capital and therefore have significant roles in secular trends.

An equity is a balance of assets and liabilities – thus an equity can go to 0 in a deflationary (or seemingly deflationary) environment. Movements in commodity prices can indicate when deflation risk is passing.

‘The Great Reset’ in asset prices would involve a surprise rise in real interest rates where the distortion in the US treasury market would be unwound.

Bear market bottoms are characterised by apathy rather than despair — ‘it’s when people don’t want to play anymore’.

The stimulus ‘required’ for the West is far too large for the East.

The West is on a trend towards more intervention and bureaucracy, whereas the East may be on a trend towards stagnating or even decreasing intervention and bureaucracy.

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.(c) 2005-2018 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use.
From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.