Majority wanted: CP Harris-Decima poll

Canadians would prefer a majority government be elected on May 2; they’re just not ready to hand one to either Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff, a new poll suggests.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey found 29 per cent of respondents would prefer a Conservative majority under Prime Minister Harper; another eight per cent would prefer a Tory minority.

Sixteen per cent would prefer a majority led by Liberal Leader Ignatieff, 12 per cent a Grit minority.

Combining the findings for the two leaders, the poll suggests 45 per cent would like to see a majority government of some stripe versus 20 per cent who’d be content with another minority. Another 24 per cent said they’d prefer some other result.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg said the results lead him to believe Canadians are looking for some stability after seven tumultuous years of minority governments, punctuated by four inconclusive elections.

Five or six years ago, he said Canadians tended to like minority governments, believing they were “more accountable, that they were more open, they were more likely to compromise.”

Now, Gregg said: “The bloom is off the minority government rose.”

Harper has been trying to tap into minority fatigue throughout the opening week of the campaign.

He’s been making an aggressive pitch for a majority, warning that a “reckless” Liberal-led coalition of opposition parties will usurp power unless the Tories are returned with a strong, stable majority. He’s beat the drum at every stop, long after Ignatieff categorically ruled out the idea of a coalition.

In the past, Canadians have tended to pull back whenever Tory support levels approach majority territory. Whether they’d now “welcome or fear” a majority Conservative government remains to be seen, said Gregg.

At the moment, at least, the poll suggests few believe any party will capture a majority. Only 18 per cent predicted a Tory majority, just six per cent a Liberal majority. Fully 40 per cent expect a Conservative minority, 12 per cent a Liberal minority.

Gregg said the findings on voters’ expectations indicate Conservative supporters are “much more internally cohesive and motivated” than Liberals. Eighty-six per cent of Tory supporters expect Harper’s party to form a government, whereas only 38 per cent expect Ignatieff to form a government.

“More Liberals believe that a Conservative government is going to be formed than believe a Liberal one is going to be formed. I mean, how disheartening is that?” Gregg said.

While respondents stated a preference for majority government when asked, they didn’t rate the issue as particularly important in the overall scheme of things.

Asked to name the most important election issue, 19 per cent cited the economy, 10 per cent health care and eight per cent ethics. Taxes and social equality came in at six per cent each, the environment at five per cent, unemployment and deficit spending at four per cent each and stable majority government at just three per cent.

Harper has been emphasizing his government’s economic management while Ignatieff has been drawing attention to Tory ethical lapses, including the contempt of Parliament motion upon which the government fell last week.

Gregg said the poll suggests Ignatieff needs to focus on more than ethics if the Liberals are to catch any wind in their sails. Combining ethics with social policy, as Ignatieff has also been attempting to do with a series of policy announcements this week, could be more fruitful.

The telephone survey of just over 1,000 people was conducted March 24-27 and is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20. The margin or error is larger for sub-samples of the population.