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11132For International PolicyenCOVIDcast: Adam Tooze on a world economy in fluxhttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/covidcast-world-economy-flux
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Roland Rajah, Lowy Institute lead economist, sits down with Adam Tooze, Professor of History at Columbia University and the Director of its European Institute, to discuss how the COVID-19 economic crisis is evolving and reshaping the world economy.</p>
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<p>COVIDcast is a Lowy Institute pop-up podcast for anyone interested in understanding the effect of coronavirus on global politics. Each week for the next few weeks, Lowy Institute experts will sit down to discuss the implications of coronavirus for the world. In this episode, Roland Rajah, Lowy Institute lead economist, sits down with Adam Tooze, Professor of History at Columbia University and the Director of its European Institute, to discuss how the COVID-19 economic crisis is evolving and reshaping the world economy.</p>
<p><iframe allow="autoplay" frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/834035404&amp;color=%23ff5500&amp;auto_play=true&amp;hide_related=true&amp;show_comments=false&amp;show_user=true&amp;show_reposts=false&amp;show_teaser=true&amp;visual=true" width="100%"></iframe></p>
<div style="font-size: 10px; color: #cccccc;line-break: anywhere;word-break: normal;overflow: hidden;white-space: nowrap;text-overflow: ellipsis; font-family: Interstate,Lucida Grande,Lucida Sans Unicode,Lucida Sans,Garuda,Verdana,Tahoma,sans-serif;font-weight: 100;"><a href="https://soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute" style="color: #cccccc; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="Lowy Institute Audio">Lowy Institute Audio</a> · <a href="https://soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute/covidcast-world-economy" style="color: #cccccc; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="COVIDcast: World economy in flux">COVIDcast: World economy in flux</a></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Roland Rajah</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Friday, June 5, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Thu, 04 Jun 2020 23:30:46 +0000Roland Rajah364936 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgDonald Trump's bizarre logic damages US allies' trust in intelligence sharinghttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/donald-trump-bizarre-logic-damages-us-allies-trust-intelligence-sharing
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>The US president appears to believe Australian spies are part of a deep-state conspiracy. Australia should be wary of the risks of getting drawn into his defence. Originally published in <em>The Guardian</em>.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">No</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Publication Type: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_category publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/publications/commentary">Commentary</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-issue field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Issue: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_issue publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/issues/australia-world">Australia in the World</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/issues/trump-presidency">The Trump Presidency</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-2"><a href="/issues/united-states">United States</a></li></ul></div><div class="field-collection-container clearfix"><div class="field field-name-field-content-sections field-type-field-collection field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Full Article:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="field-collection-view clearfix view-mode-full field-collection-view-final"><div class="entity entity-field-collection-item field-collection-item-field-content-sections clearfix">
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<p>It really is a poke in the eye – the “Five Eyes”, that is. Donald Trump’s telephone call to Scott Morrison, <a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/01/donald-trump-urged-scott-morrison-help-discredit-mueller-inquiry">revealed on Tuesday in the New York Times</a>, where he pressed for help in investigating the origins of the Mueller inquiry, will doubtless put a further strain on what is otherwise a very close intelligence-sharing partnership between the United States and Australia.</p>
<p>Why? Because aside from the unwanted political distraction of putting Australia at the centre of another Trump tirade (just as Morrison was seeking to apply the blowtorch to Labor at home for what he called “<a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/naive-to-talk-down-libs-on-china-ties-says-morrison/news-story/e4139dd53e059a1333e10fe06b5e3af4">naive and immature</a>” remarks about China), the twisted logic of Trump’s allegation is truly extraordinary.</p>
<p>Stripped bare of the thorns of conspiracy, what the man sitting in the Oval Office appears to believe is that Australian spies, part of a “deep state” in cahoots with American counterparts, aided by Britain, with ties to Ukraine, took it upon themselves in 2016 to devise a plan to subvert the will of the American people to elect one Donald J Trump.</p>
<p>Wow.</p>
<p>It must raise serious questions about trusting the most sensitive of national secrets to the US president, when it cannot be clear what he might do with them. And just as importantly, the whole saga once again raises the danger of politicising intelligence material.</p>
<p>Trump’s private call to Morrison, reportedly made in early September, was surely anticipated. After all, it was back in May that Trump had publicly roped in Australia into what he derided as the “<a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/25/donald-trump-wants-investigation-into-australias-role-in-russian-hoax">hoax that was perpetrated on our country</a>” when he asked US attorney general William Barr to find out what led to the Mueller report.</p>
<p>Australia’s ambassador in Washington, Joe Hockey, had been quick to write to Barr with a pledge of “<a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/01/donald-trump-urged-scott-morrison-help-discredit-mueller-inquiry">best endeavours</a>” to support this inquiry, evincing a trust in a US system that in normal times might have pursued an outcome based on evidence and due process, but nowadays appears driven by the rivalry and jealousy of court intrigue.</p>
<p>This is nothing like ordinary and cannot be excused as another of Trump’s strange twittering tendencies. Leave aside Ukraine for the moment and the other infamous phone call to the Ukrainian president that <a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/26/whistleblower-trump-ukraine-read-in-full-text-document">kickstarted the impeachment investigations</a> now roiling Washington; in Trump’s imagined takedown, that’s three of the five intelligence-sharing partners all implicated. By the US president, no less.</p>
<p>Think about that. This is not a mole or massive leak of the kind which has tested the intelligence-sharing partnership before, but a fundamental questioning of trust. Australia must be wary of the risk of too readily justifying Trump’s behaviour simply because of the value of access to US intelligence. The risk that his allegations and actions pose to Australia’s interest should be made explicit to American officials.</p>
<p><a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/02/history-of-5-eyes-explainer">The Five Eyes arrangement dates back more than 70 years</a>, a partnership to share highly classified intelligence formed after the second world war between the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The moniker “Five Eyes” was itself secret for many years, such is the careful protection of this division of signals intercepts, human assets, geospatial imagery and intelligence assessments.</p>
<p>Yet the value of sharing between trusted partners was seen as crucial to give these western allies an edge in their dealings with the rest of the world. As uncomfortable and blunt as it might sound to say this out loud, that is the point of spying. “It’s much more fun to play cards if you can read the other guy’s hand,” as one former CIA official <a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/spy-scandal-gives-the-game-away-with-indonesian-cooperation-no-longer-on-the-cards-20140222-339oq.html">once told me</a>.</p>
<p>There are a lot of misplaced assumptions about the all-knowing, all-seeing, all-controlling ability of spy agencies, and that’s where Trump appears to have suffered. Despite the Hollywood hype or the great Le Carré-esque fiction, the truth is that so much intelligence work is a matter of adding a fine focus rather than producing some great previously unknown revelation, fomenting a coup or causing some astonishing change in behaviour.</p>
<p>Yet because spy agencies work in the shadows, never to confirm or deny their actions, nothing is ever proven. Try as you might, you’ll never dissuade some Australians that the CIA wasn’t somehow involved in the toppling of Gough Whitlam, despite no evidence ever being produced. The absence of evidence is somehow instead twisted proof of secret intrigue.</p>
<p>But back to Trump, and the consequences for today.</p>
<p>What doubtlessly fuels this plot is that it was <a data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/alexander-downer">Alexander Downer</a> who as Australia’s high commissioner in London dobbed in then-Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos in 2016 for a drunken brag about Russia offering a trove of Hillary Clinton’s hacked emails. Downer, when he previously served as Australia’s foreign affairs minister, had oversight of Australia’s secret intelligence service.</p>
<p>For Australians who have observed Downer’s political career over decades, the idea he would be embedded in an elaborate scheme to ruin the prospect of a Republican candidate, even one as oafish as Trump, simply does not pass the pub test. But again, some people will never be convinced by the absence of evidence. The US president appears to be one of them.</p>
<p>Trump has already authorised the release of the transcript of the Ukraine phone call, <a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/09/26/why-ukraines-zelensky-isnt-taking-more-heat-his-fawning-call-with-trump/">apparently</a> without his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy understanding that both sides of the conversation would become public, and being deeply embarrassed by the resulting disclosure.</p>
<p>Clearly Zelenskiy’s experience should be a warning for Australia not to assume that Trump will keep secret any aspect of information obtained from Australia that either he or his officials believe will be helpful to Trump’s cause – no matter how tangential it might appear.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean Australia has anything to hide. But the risk here is being dragged into the defence of a president who just might.</p>
<p><em>Daniel Flitton edits <a data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter">the Interpreter</a>, published by the Lowy Institute, and was previously an intelligence analyst for the Australian government</em></p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Daniel Flitton</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Wednesday, October 2, 2019</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-regions field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Related Regions: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_regions publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/regions/united-states">United States</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/regions/australia">Australia</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Wed, 03 Jun 2020 04:20:51 +0000Daniel Flitton364886 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgBeing a video vigilante can serve the greater good, but that doesn't mean it's always righthttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/being-video-vigilante-can-serve-greater-good-doesnt-mean-it-always-right
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Originally published in <em>ABC News.</em></p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">No</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Publication Type: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_category publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/publications/commentary">Commentary</a></li></ul></div><div class="field-collection-container clearfix"><div class="field field-name-field-content-sections field-type-field-collection field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Full Article:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="field-collection-view clearfix view-mode-full field-collection-view-final"><div class="entity entity-field-collection-item field-collection-item-field-content-sections clearfix">
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<p>The video vigilantes are among us. Take the latest viral moment, for example. The <a data-component="ContentLink" href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/racist-mildura-tirade-video-sparks-aboriginal-campaign/11803834">racist rant that Mildura resident Robby Wirramanda Knight was subjected to</a> was, in a word, appalling.</p>
<p>As his neighbours taunted that "People like you make a mockery of true Aboriginals", he was absolutely right to reach for his mobile phone to film the sorry saga and post it online.</p>
<p>But that doesn't make a camera and a social media account the answer to every problem.</p>
<p>"Let it go viral," a cocky Robert Vigors is seen goading Wirramanda Knight mid-rant.</p>
<p>Vigors could never have anticipated the cost of clicks, either to his own reputation or that of the country.</p>
<p>The footage has seen him <a data-component="ContentLink" href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-15/mcdonalds-removes-franchisee-after-aboriginal-flag-confrontation/11801010">stripped of two local McDonald's restaurant franchises</a> in the northern Victorian town.</p>
<p>The fallout has also damaged the travel agency business of Karen Ridge, who is seen in the video trying and failing to tear down an Aboriginal flag.</p>
<p>It serves them both right. As much as the pair can <a data-component="ContentLink" href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/p92XCMwvkOTxy4V2cw6e6N?domain=dailymail.co.uk">respond</a> with claims that "there are always two sides to every story", their behaviour was obvious for the public to judge.</p>
<h2 data-component="Heading">Not every conflict needs a platform</h2>
<p>What made this confrontation so extraordinary — or as a journalist would say, so newsworthy — was the manner in which it offered a glimpse into Australia's dismal record of race relations.</p>
<p>Racism is a problem widely acknowledged, yet so often hidden. Here was a true insight, a story picked up by news outlets overseas.</p>
<p>And that's the point. It was revealing as a moment. Not every conflict is.</p>
<p>Most neighbourhood disputes are so mundane as to barely rate a Facebook like, let alone a viral video.</p>
<p>Yet we are in danger of too often tripping over our technology.</p>
<h2 data-component="Heading">Video can complicate the problem</h2>
<p>I watched — in real life, not online — another instance this week that showed how our urge to capture "content" can needlessly complicate a problem that might have been otherwise smoothly resolved.</p>
<p>A pedestrian was accosting a bus driver. It lasted only a couple of minutes — and no, I didn't think to film it. But the pedestrian did.</p>
<p>He had stalked onto the road in front of an empty bus parked on a suburban street, phone in hand, video rolling.</p>
<p>He panned the camera around then knocked on the side door. The driver got out, and I could hear the pedestrian complaining that the bus was parked in what he called a "handicapped" zone.</p>
<p>He was right. But his approach was all wrong. If this was an attempt at citizen journalism, it was a tabloid style — foot in the door, camera in the face with the journalist as part of story, rather than observer and storyteller.</p>
<p>The driver tried to calmly explain that another bus was parked ahead of him in the usual waiting bay as he took a short break.</p>
<p>But the pedestrian kept holding up his camera, insisting the bus move, by now demanding the name of the driver's manager.</p>
<p>The driver turned away, and the pedestrian kept filming and narrating, presumably with the intention of posting the incident online. (If he has, I've not found it.)</p>
<p>The driver was undoubtedly in the wrong, but surely that doesn't make the pedestrian right. What might have happened had he simply first approached the driver and pointed out the disabled parking sign?</p>
<h2 data-component="Heading">Reaching for the camera isn't always right</h2>
<p>Given everyone has a phone, it must be time for some ground rules for our wannabe news-breakers.</p>
<p>A man fishing in a Melbourne city lake was recently <a data-component="ContentLink" href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/_otcCNLwlQSVqm5Zf4A7Fv?domain=news.com.au">confronted</a> by a phone camera wielding complainant accusing him of breaking the law — only he wasn't. Such incidents seem increasingly common.</p>
<p>Journalists are taught early that "dog bites man" is so ordinary an occurrence as not to rate as a story. But "man bites dog" just might.</p>
<p>That's the type of sentiment which makes for a viral video, at least in the news sense.</p>
<p>It was revealing to film boys in the uniform of a Melbourne private school joining a <a data-component="ContentLink" href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/e8k9COMxmVT5LmrNCkofgG?domain=theguardian.com">sexist chant</a> on a tram in October, or to capture the extraordinary bravery in London last month when citizens sought to <a data-component="ContentLink" href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/zXEUCP7ynXCv1EA0cj1jWB?domain=theguardian.com">quell a terrorist</a> with fire extinguishers and a narwhal tusk.</p>
<p>These moments amounted to news because of their exceptional nature. Trying to force a story by inserting yourself into it will never be the same.</p>
<p>If you see somebody doing something wrong, the instinct to reach for the camera isn't always right. Some people have jobs to resolve such situations.</p>
<p>The police, for example. Use the phone to first call them instead.</p>
<p><strong>Daniel Flitton is a journalist and editor of the Lowy Institute's Interpreter blog.</strong></p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Daniel Flitton</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Friday, December 20, 2019</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Wed, 03 Jun 2020 04:16:25 +0000Daniel Flitton364876 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgMorrison Struggles Amidst His Bushfire Responsehttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/morrison-struggles-amidst-his-bushfire-response
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Originally published in the <em>Council on Foreign Relations</em>.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">No</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Publication Type: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_category publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/publications/commentary">Commentary</a></li></ul></div><div class="field-collection-container clearfix"><div class="field field-name-field-content-sections field-type-field-collection field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Full Article:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="field-collection-view clearfix view-mode-full field-collection-view-final"><div class="entity entity-field-collection-item field-collection-item-field-content-sections clearfix">
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<p>When political dramas unfold in real life, they never seem to feature that one crucial moment you commonly see watching a classic emergency room television series. You know—the kind where frantic doctors desperately struggle to revive a patient, pumping his or her chest and charging defibrillators, only to be defeated, and to mournfully mark the precise instant it all came to an end, with lines like “I’m calling it. Time of death, 11:04 AM.”</p>
<p>But future historians likely will look back on what has been a scorching Australian summer as the moment Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s previously successful political career <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/03/australias-bushfires-reveal-how-scott-morrison-has-lost-his-way/" target="_blank" title="flatlined">flatlined</a>.</p>
<p>Morrison is still far from gone, politically speaking. Yet the jolt to his fortunes after his government’s <a href="https://apnews.com/294379d425934cb44fcd1f7e5ebf482a" target="_blank" title="inept response">inept response</a> to bushfires that have raged across the country in recent months has clearly hurt his carefully crafted personal <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48325009" target="_blank" title="brand">brand</a>. The damage to Morrison’s political prospects looks to be permanent, though in unpredictable realm of Australian politics, one can never be sure.</p>
<p>Sometimes, moments arrive in politics where reputations are forever tarnished. A relatively newly re-elected George W. Bush, who still had a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx" target="_blank" title="favorable approval rating">favorable approval rating</a> in early 2005, found this out later that year after being seen to botch the initial reaction to Hurricane Katrina.</p>
<p>Morrison already has suffered a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-scott-morrison-takes-a-hit-in-bushfires-backlash/news-story/bf5bd8690ca01bb4a8332e8a49fb4ed9" target="_blank" title="sharp dip">sharp dip</a> in <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-coalition-vote-gets-burnt-by-fires-rorts/news-story/c027d9e4500e0fc151af4245589f582a" target="_blank" title="opinion poll ratings">opinion poll ratings</a> after his performance this Southern Hemisphere summer. The reason why such <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-turn-on-pm-over-pathetic-response-to-bushfire-crisis-20200202-p53wy9.html" target="_blank" title="damage">damage</a> may prove lasting is the baggage he brings to his job—a belligerent and highly personalized style that had to date been a great strength, allowing him to be portrayed as a man who takes on the responsibility to get things done. Only in the case of the fires, he seemed to exert no leadership at all, exactly counter to his brand. As the fires ramped up, he literally took a holiday to Hawaii—and was publicly condemned for it. Later, with smoke blanketing many of Australia’s biggest cities and authorities warning people to avoid exercise and the risk to health, Morrison cheerily gathered with the national cricket team by Sydney’s harbor for a photo-op at New Year’s, still <a href="https://au.sports.yahoo.com/australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison-cricket-comments-slammed-amid-bushfire-crisis-022727600.html" target="_blank" title="appearing oblivious">appearing oblivious</a> to the depth of public concern about the fires. It had already been revealed he ignored the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-saw-it-coming-former-fire-commissioner-says-government-was-warned-on-bushfires-20191114-p53agj.html" target="_blank" title="pleas of prominent fire chiefs">pleas of prominent fire chiefs</a> in the months leading up to summer about the dangers ahead. When Morrison did eventually visit some communities battered by the fires, he was treated to that most Australian of sarcastic welcomes: “<a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/bushfire-victims-heckle-scomo-in-nsw-town-20200103-p53oh7" target="_blank" title="go on, piss off">go on, piss off</a>.”</p>
<p>Morrison <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/20/australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison-cuts-short-hawaii-holiday/" target="_blank" title="subsequently conceded">subsequently conceded</a> he made a mistake by going overseas in the days before Christmas. It was a rare concession that he had gone wrong, and one that will open the way for opponents to question his judgment. Morrison never gave an inch, in the past, on almost any political issue, especially during his years as the face of the conservative coalition’s “stop the boats” policy to prevent asylum seekers crossing dangerous seas to Australia. Even when caught in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/egyptian-stuck-in-villawood-after-false-terror-claim-20140417-zqw0d.html" target="_blank" title="blatant exaggerations">blatant exaggerations</a> related to the asylum policy, he stood stubbornly firm. Later, when in charge of the nation’s finances as treasurer between 2015 and 2018, he marched into parliament brandishing a lump of coal, taunting the opposition in the face of calls to transition the economy from a dependence on fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Morrison’s first instinct when taking a holiday during the fire crisis was similarly not to give ground to the critics. His staff sought to cover up his absence—with journalists <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/12/16/pm-scott-morrison-hawaii-holiday/" target="_blank" title="insisting">insisting</a> his office sought to deny that <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-scott-morrison-returns-with-regret-129189" target="_blank" title="he was even away">he was even away</a>, only to be discovered <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/photo-emerges-of-scott-morrison-holidaying-in-hawaii-before-he-announces-decision-to-return-to-australia/news-story/101aafa60250d92d3cc69c32f839d571" target="_blank" title="lounging on a Hawaiian beach">lounging on a Hawaiian beach</a>.</p>
<p>When Morrison did return, he stumbled further. His awkward appearances and forced handshakes in areas devastated by the fires were <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50979169" target="_blank" title="broadcast nationally and across the world">broadcast nationally and across the world</a>, and proved a striking contrast to his usual efforts to present himself as an everyman. And the still relatively recent prevalence of smart phones and social media ensured that the scale of the fires—with <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2019/12/31/terrifying-moment-as-australian-firefighters-drive-through-flames" target="_blank" title="footage from deep inside the inferno">footage from deep inside the inferno</a>—was seen by the Australian public much <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/inside-the-australian-bushfires-crisis/11890458" target="_blank" title="more broadly">more broadly</a> than it would have been even five years ago. Yet Morrison, the supposedly can-do character, responded in a way that was seen to pass the buck, saying, “<a href="https://news.sky.com/video/i-dont-hold-a-hose-says-australias-pm-explaining-his-holiday-during-bush-fires-11891132" target="_blank" title="I don’t hold a hose, mate">I don’t hold a hose, mate</a>.” His subsequent decision to produce an advertisement to promote his response to the fires, only for the ad to feature a way to donate to the ruling Liberal party at a time people were reaching into their own pockets for charity, rankled some Australians.</p>
<p>In part, Morrison was caught by a confluence of events beyond his control. His Hawaii holiday coincided with the sad death of volunteer firefighters, further amplifying attention on his absence. And people are understandably angry when their house has burned down, and look for someone to blame. A public survey <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/23/bushfire-crisis-more-than-half-of-all-australians-found-to-have-been-directly-affected" target="_blank" title="suggested">suggested</a> more than half of the Australian population felt affected by the fire crisis—whether by direct property damage, health concerns from smoke haze, or holiday plans upended. Morrison has not only suffered a fall in his own <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/essential-poll-more-voters-disapprove-of-scott-morrison-and-see-him-as-arrogant" target="_blank" title="approval ratings">approval ratings</a>, his poor handling of the fire crisis saw him <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/scott-morrisons-bushfires-troubles-all-of-his-own-making/news-story/0fcee8a9cfa7fcfc8243db7289a2fa77" target="_blank" title="criticized">criticized</a> in <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/scott-morrisons-bushfires-troubles-all-of-his-own-making/news-story/0fcee8a9cfa7fcfc8243db7289a2fa77" target="_blank" title="influential">influential</a> media outlets usually welded to the conservative side. Even from within his own party, state politicians in New South Wales <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-starts-bushfire-repair-with-states-after-weekend-of-confusion-20200105-p53p0s.html" target="_blank" title="complained">complained</a> about a lack of consultation with and leadership from the national government.</p>
<p>The prime minister remains in office. Morrison’s position is now protected somewhat from revolt within his ruling coalition, because it has become far <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-changes-leadership-rules-after-snap-late-night-meeting-20181203-p50jz1.html" target="_blank" title="harder">harder</a> to oust leaders from within parties, between elections, thanks to new <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/PartyLeadershipChangesChallenges" target="_blank" title="procedural rules">procedural rules</a> adopted by both parties.</p>
<p>The new rules were put in place to end the cycle of continual fighting from within parties, and replacing prime minister after prime minister without elections. Morrison won power in an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bf7cf842-a729-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b" target="_blank" title="internal party leadership contest">internal party leadership contest</a> in 2018, becoming the sixth prime minister in a decade, amidst nonstop petty squabbling and personality clashes within the two major political parties. Morrison won a national election just last May, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/world/australia/election-day.html" target="_blank" title="result not foreseen">result not foreseen</a> by most pre-election polls; that victory should have netted him enduring political capital. He now has more than two years until he faces another national election, under Australia’s system of three-year terms. And the country has enjoyed a roaring economy: It has not had a recession in twenty-seven years.</p>
<p>Yet the extra-long season of bushfires in the southern and eastern states, which began much earlier than usual in September and came after a long and painful drought in rural districts, not only damaged Morrison’s personal brand but also again focused the public mind on the problem that has loomed in the background of Australia’s recent decade of political strife. That is, the need to craft a credible and durable response to climate change. Indeed, Australia faces the difficult challenge of balancing combating global warming, securing sources of energy for the domestic market, and keeping Australia’s economy booming through exports of coal, gas, and minerals to regional giants like China, Australia’s biggest trading partner.</p>
<p>Even if he can right his personal brand, Morrison will continue struggling because of the fundamental divisions within Australian conservative ranks about how to handle environmental challenges. Australia is in many ways the rich country most endangered by climate change. And <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/julie-bishop-says-australia-needs-to-show-global-leadership-on-climate-change" target="_blank" title="some parts">some parts</a> of the conservative Liberal-National coalition, supported by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/getting-down-to-the-business-of-evolving-australia-s-climate-policy-20200130-p53w34.html" target="_blank" title="prominent voices">prominent voices</a> in the business community, wish the government would <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/liberal-mps-agitate-for-climate-change-action-as-julie-bishop-lifts-temperature-20190201-h1ar4z" target="_blank" title="take the lead">take the lead</a> on planning for the changes stemming from global warming, and develop a strategy of more ambitious cuts to carbon emissions to limit the dangers. Other portions of the ruling coalition <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/craig-kelly-denies-climate-change-linked-to-bushfires/11846604" target="_blank" title="deny climate change exists">deny climate change exists</a>, or view any focus on climate change as driven by a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/tony-abbott-former-australian-pm-tells-israeli-radio-the-world-is-in-the-grip-of-a-climate-cult" target="_blank" title="cult-like">cult-like</a>” global green movement to undermine capitalism and hurt the Australian economy.</p>
<p>As the crisis built, Morrison spent weeks pointing to Australia’s long past experience with bushfires, refusing to countenance climate change as a meaningful factor that has made fires worse, more devastating, and more regular. Morrison has shown no sign that his summer scare will change his approach or that he will seek to resolve the schism in his coalition on climate change—a schism that undermines policy-making and leaves Australia as a laggard in both climate diplomacy and responses to global warming at home. He insists, to the <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/all-in-the-same-canoe/" target="_blank" title="cost of relations with neighboring Pacific island nations">cost of relations with neighboring Pacific island nations</a>, that Australia only produces 1.3 percent of global carbon emissions, while neglecting to point out that these emissions stem from a country with 0.3 percent of the world’s population. He has emphasized that the fires result from conservation policies allowing too much forest growth—or even arson—with only the barest nod to problems exacerbated by rising temperatures or declining rainfall. As a result, the ruling coalition remains divided, and any progress on climate change in Australia likely remains stalled.</p>
<p>Instead, Morrison has attempted to revert to promoting the image of himself as a man of action. He has called out the military to assist with firefighting and clean-up, and pledged to pass legislation to allow the federal government to respond more swiftly to fires in future. “Further practical resilience measures” was the Morrison mantra in a <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-national-press-club" target="_blank" title="major speech">major speech</a> delivered last week in an attempt recapture the political agenda.</p>
<p>But this approach continues to treat the symptoms of what troubles Australia, not the cause. Although he faces no serious prospects of being challenged until election time, the public is <a href="https://lowyinstitutepoll.lowyinstitute.org/themes/climate-change-and-energy/" target="_blank" title="again eager for substantive action">again eager for substantive action</a> on climate change, and Morrison surely knows from recent history that leaders rarely recover for a second chance.</p>
<p><em>Daniel Flitton is the editor of </em><a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter" target="_blank" title="The Interpreter"><em>The Interpreter</em></a><em>, a digital magazine published daily by the Lowy Institute in Sydney.</em></p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Daniel Flitton</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Monday, March 2, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-regions field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Related Regions: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_regions publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/regions/australia">Australia</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Wed, 03 Jun 2020 04:09:06 +0000Daniel Flitton364871 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgJoe Biden's victory for normalhttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/joe-biden-victory-normal
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>History is against a win for the former vice president in November. But you can't blame allies for hoping that yet another shock awaits. Originally published in the <em>Australian Financial Review</em>.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">No</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Publication Type: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_category publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/publications/commentary">Commentary</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-issue field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Issue: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_issue publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/issues/trump-presidency">The Trump Presidency</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/issues/united-states">United States</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-2"><a href="/issues/us-elections">US Elections</a></li></ul></div><div class="field-collection-container clearfix"><div class="field field-name-field-content-sections field-type-field-collection field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Full Article:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="field-collection-view clearfix view-mode-full field-collection-view-final"><div class="entity entity-field-collection-item field-collection-item-field-content-sections clearfix">
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<div class="field field-name-field-content field-type-text-long field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Content:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="pub-content__section">
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<p>“Of all of the wild twists and turns of fate in Joe’s life,” a wry American observer messaged me earlier in the week, “St Paddy’s Day came early for Celtic.”</p>
<p>Former vice president Joe Biden was given the codename “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/us-secret-service-and-vicepresident-joe-biden-puzzle-over-afl-20160717-gq7l49.html">Celtic</a>” by the US Secret Service, and my contact, a person steeped in the friendships and feuds that make up Democratic politics in the US, was as surprised as anyone by the sudden heart-start to what had been Biden’s <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__nymag.com_intelligencer_2019_10_joe-2Dbiden-2D2020-2Dcampaign.html&amp;amp;d=DwMGaQ&amp;amp;c=N9aEhCy8U0rJkO1xCZf7rgM9fohfR5qe_N93viZd7O8&amp;amp;r=52M6xpqaMbd-HTAXgsHg6hIlKC33duNDjnCM1SAsRaQ&amp;amp;m=o6PSPYvWLsFF6ETULlfgLZ243jJSGaiCkYf7EobRmPM&amp;amp;s=uFmVq5fym-jdRrdBxYvoHUQs0srPwMkH64rOA0ivNeo&amp;amp;e=">chronically flailing</a> presidential campaign. It means there is hope for Biden, but there are always buts.</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-7770372_137="12154" data-gtm-vis-polling-id-7770372_137="1607" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-7770372_137="2387228" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-7770372_137="3800">“I fear my political truism No. 235 may play out,” this observer continued. “When a party nominates a candidate because it’s ‘their time’, they (nearly) always lose in November – both Dems and Republicans. Mondale, Dole, Gore, McCain, Romney, Hillary Rodham Clinton.”</p>
<p>“The only one to break the rule was George H W Bush in 1988, but then he proved the rule four years later. Hence validating No. 235 on my list of truisms.”</p>
<p>Nowadays, everyone is desperately searching for wisdom. The head-snapping political changes of the past few years have upended so many assumptions – so much of what had been accepted as firm, conventional beliefs – that even a fleeting glimpse of something recognisable is welcome.</p>
<p>We’ve all learned that prediction is fraught, whether by the examples of Donald Trump snatching victory, or Brexit winning majority support – even by <a href="https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p51oxx">Scott Morrison’s miracle election</a> last year, which defied all assumptions, only for his ascendancy to be followed by an equally astounding summer of <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.cfr.org_blog_morrison-2Dstruggles-2Damidst-2Dhis-2Dbushfire-2Dresponse&amp;amp;d=DwMGaQ&amp;amp;c=N9aEhCy8U0rJkO1xCZf7rgM9fohfR5qe_N93viZd7O8&amp;amp;r=52M6xpqaMbd-HTAXgsHg6hIlKC33duNDjnCM1SAsRaQ&amp;amp;m=o6PSPYvWLsFF6ETULlfgLZ243jJSGaiCkYf7EobRmPM&amp;amp;s=zdPP9orBsgM_25OLIk0oJiV_QBSbpHBOBe2EZLILCQI&amp;amp;e=">political ham-fistedness</a>.</p>
<p>Yet so many conversations, like the one with my American contact are still being had by pundits and policy makers alike. We all hope to foresee what might happen later this year when Americans go to the ballot box. It’s human nature, to try to anticipate, to prepare, no matter how wrong we’ve been in the past. Just ask supermarket shelf-stackers across Australia as they restock rolls of dunny paper.</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-7770372_137="2316188" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-7770372_137="1" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-7770372_137="4000">And there is a ring of truth in his prediction. Surely the 77-year-old Biden, who in every way represents the kind of staid political condition from which hatched the monster Donald Trump, cannot then be realistically expected to slay the beast?</p>
<p>Trump's return in November has also been the operating assumption in the upper echelons of the Australian government for months now, well before the Democratic primaries gathered pace. It's not that the Coalition is barracking for Trump, only that pragmatically, the government is preparing for four more years of his White House occupation.</p>
<p>The logic of this assessment is plain enough. The Democrats wanted Anyone But Trump, contemptuous of his political success, convinced they’d been robbed, sure that his actions were impeachable.</p>
<p>It quickly became Everyone But Trump as the field of potential candidates clustered and grew in the search for the magic quality of “electability”.</p>
<p>Then, as the Democrats squared off and squabbled, robbing each other of attention while simultaneously diminishing their standing in a frustrated electorate, it seemed to become No One But Trump – just the way Donald had winnowed the field and beaten off his own Republican rivals in 2016. Once President, Trump had never really stopped campaigning. His only firm policy was a determination to win again.</p>
<p>But Biden, should he earn the nomination from here, holds out to allies of America the promise of a reset. Or at least, allies can convince themselves of such.</p>
<p>Just imagine the alternate universe of Morrison having to deal with a Biden administration about a looming pandemic such as Covid-19.</p>
<p>No fear of a capricious Tweet suddenly upending an established policy. No pandering to a precious ego easily slighted, willing to believe in every conspiracy. No needing to navigate and build relationships with the circus tent of clowns surrounding the president – here one day, “you’re fired” the next.</p>
<p>Instead, with the kind of people Biden would bring in, Australia would be dealing with stable “interlocutors”, speaking the familiar language of a “rules-based-order” (and believing this to be also be the view in the Oval Office). The world might trust Washington again, too.</p>
<p>Of course, Biden has to win the nomination yet. Joe may have the “Big Mo”, as George Bush senior famously described political momentum, and Bernie Sanders is bound to leap on <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nytimes.com_2020_03_04_business_wall-2Dstreet-2Djoe-2Dbiden-2Dbernie-2Dsanders.html&amp;amp;d=DwMGaQ&amp;amp;c=N9aEhCy8U0rJkO1xCZf7rgM9fohfR5qe_N93viZd7O8&amp;amp;r=52M6xpqaMbd-HTAXgsHg6hIlKC33duNDjnCM1SAsRaQ&amp;amp;m=o6PSPYvWLsFF6ETULlfgLZ243jJSGaiCkYf7EobRmPM&amp;amp;s=Fp0fjjoEcvxedNxvyFpSNjD0dhzkUUhSxfMNbZtvF9c&amp;amp;e=">reports</a> about Wall Street chequebooks funding the Biden campaign. “Game of Grudges”, as my American observer puts it.</p>
<p>Yet even if Biden does win, again upending another version of the conventional wisdom, and Trump is no more, what really changes beyond the personalities, huckster style, and intemperate language?</p>
<p>The US will still be challenged by a rising China, particularly in Australia’s neighbourhood, even if the <a href="https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5472w">COVID-19 sets the world economy</a> back a while. The US will still be expecting its allies to do more to confront its adversary. And the allies – including Australia – will still be caught in a debate about whether “more” is worth the cost.</p>
<p>That is the nub of Australia’s challenge. The government was willing to surrender free trade principles to carve out an exception from the Trump administration on steel tariffs, while backing a mission to police oil supplies in the Gulf. Morrison has also been willing to flirt with complaints about “<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.lowyinstitute.org_publications_2019-2Dlowy-2Dlecture-2Dprime-2Dminister-2Dscott-2Dmorrison&amp;amp;d=DwMGaQ&amp;amp;c=N9aEhCy8U0rJkO1xCZf7rgM9fohfR5qe_N93viZd7O8&amp;amp;r=52M6xpqaMbd-HTAXgsHg6hIlKC33duNDjnCM1SAsRaQ&amp;amp;m=o6PSPYvWLsFF6ETULlfgLZ243jJSGaiCkYf7EobRmPM&amp;amp;s=7kkYqxYENXU-oXof05EvyDIV3vSLxoFsLbhWRUnyH2Q&amp;amp;e=">globalists</a>”, despite the record of benefit from an open world.</p>
<p>But the biggest test for Australia around US rivalry with China will continue, regardless of who wins in November.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><a data-testid="AuthorURL" href="https://www.afr.com/by/daniel-flitton-p4yvns">Daniel Flitton</a></strong> is editor of the Lowy Institute digital magazine, The Interpreter, and a former intelligence analyst.</p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Daniel Flitton</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Saturday, March 7, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-regions field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Related Regions: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_regions publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/regions/united-states">United States</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Wed, 03 Jun 2020 04:01:15 +0000Daniel Flitton364866 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgNormality is at least a couple of years awayhttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/normality-least-couple-years-away
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>While the medical prognosis looks less alarming, the economic prospect is as grim as ever. The Reserve Bank has done what it can, now it's up to the government, writes Stephen Grenville. Originally published in the <em>Australian Financial Review</em>.</p>
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<p>The RBA was quick off the mark in responding to the crisis, with its policy initiatives in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-08.html">mid-March</a>. With the epidemic aspect of the crisis now a little clearer, the Statement on Monetary Policy offered an opportunity to reassess. While the medical prognosis looks considerably less alarming than envisaged in the early epidemiological modelling, the economic prospect is as grim as ever. As a result, the Statement offers much fascinating detail on the evolving downturn and the possible shape of the recovery, but no changes in overall assessment.</p>
<p>Back in March, while there was debate on whether the recession would be look like a V, W, L or U, its profile was clearly not going to fit any simple alphabet shape. Those sectors of the economy which had to close down were clearly very substantial. Thus the initial hit would be huge.</p>
<p>Then, as restrictions were relaxed, there could be a reasonably rapid return towards normality. The unknown was the timetable.</p>
<p>Looking further ahead, some sectors wouldn’t be returning to normal in the foreseeable future. No matter how effective the stimulus, the productive potential of the economy has been reduced, debt burdens will be higher, some businesses will not revive and precautionary behaviour will persist.</p>
<p>We don’t know much more about the key issue of timing than we did in March. The opening-up process was always going to be tentative and experimental. We already had a good reading of the RBA’s thinking on the cyclical profile from <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/pdf/sp-gov-2020-04-21.pdf">Philip Lowe’s speech on 21 April</a>: output down 20% in the June quarter, with recovery starting in the September quarter. Unemployment would register 10%, with many more hidden by the Jobkeeper wage subsidy.</p>
<p>The Statement’s alternative scenarios are evenly balanced between optimism and pessimism. Even the optimistic scenario has normality ‘a couple of years away’.</p>
<p>It’s not surprising, then, that the RBA hasn’t seen the need to tweak the March policy package much.</p>
<p>Conventional policy – the short-term interest rate – was set at effective-zero in March. Forward guidance assured financial markets that this would stay for the duration. Nothing more to do here.</p>
<p>The March package had two more objectives. First, to encourage the banking sector to play a shock-absorber role by funding the cash-flow consequences of business hibernation and recession. Second, to ensure that the government could fund the huge deficit in prospect.</p>
<p>These objectives are taking the RBA into territory which has become conventional for many other central banks since the 2008 GFC, but where the RBA hasn’t ventured, at least in the post-1980s deregulated world.</p>
<p>There was clearly a huge need for funding to bridge the cash-flow shock. The RBA can’t help these borrowers directly -- it has no mandate to lend to the private sector. But its $115 billion of new Term Lending Facility encourages banks to maintain existing loans and maybe even expand lending. Only $4 billion of the TLF has been drawn so far, but business borrowing picked up sharply in March.</p>
<p>As part of the March package, the RBA overcame its earlier lack of enthusiasm for quantitative easing and began yield-curve management, buying three-year bonds to keep the yield at 0.25%.</p>
<p>This has dual objectives. It facilitates and cheapens commercial banks’ funding. This has been brought down by around 75 bp. At the same time, it underwrites budget funding, by standing ready to buy any three-year bonds the AOFM issues.</p>
<p>The RBA does this indirectly, buying in the secondary market. But when the market knows that it can on-sell at will to the RBA, this is not much different from the RBA purchasing the bonds directly.</p>
<p>Already, in just a month, the RBA has purchased over $50 billion of government bonds, not far short of half the size of the proposed budget stimulus. The Bank hopes that a more moderate pace of purchase will be enough not just to keep the three-year rate at 0.25%, but to keep the 10-year rate at its current extraordinarily low yield, under 1%.</p>
<p>Let’s see how this works out over time. It would be unfortunate if the Bank extends its yield-curve management to the long end of the curve, as this commitment could be difficult to unwind when interest rates need to return to normality.</p>
<p>The message of the Statement is that the Bank, in its March measures, has done all it can sensibly do to help bridge the downturn. The heavy-lifting has to be done with fiscal policy.</p>
<p><em>Stephen Grenville is a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute and former deputy governor at the Reserve Bank.</em></p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Stephen Grenville</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Friday, May 8, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Tue, 02 Jun 2020 08:57:42 +0000Stephen Grenville364821 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgCOVIDcast: Secretary General Meg Taylor on COVID in the Pacific Islandshttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/covidcast-secretary-general-meg-taylor-covid-pacific-islands
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>In this episode Jonathan Pryke, Director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands Program, sits down with Dame Meg Taylor, Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, to discuss how COVID-19 is affecting health, economics, local communities, climate change, regionalism and geopolitics in the Pacific region.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-blog-main-image field-type-image field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Cover Image:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img class="img-responsive" src="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/Covidcast-Background_5.jpg" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Yes</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Publication Type: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_category publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/publications/podcasts">Podcasts</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-issue field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Issue: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_issue publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/issues/coronavirus">Coronavirus</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/issues/pacific-islands">Pacific Islands</a></li></ul></div><div class="field-collection-container clearfix"><div class="field field-name-field-content-sections field-type-field-collection field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Full Article:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="field-collection-view clearfix view-mode-full field-collection-view-final"><div class="entity entity-field-collection-item field-collection-item-field-content-sections clearfix">
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<p>In this episode Jonathan Pryke, Director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands Program, sits down with Dame Meg Taylor, Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, to discuss how COVID-19 is affecting health, economics, local communities, climate change, regionalism and geopolitics in the Pacific region.</p>
<p>COVIDcast is a Lowy Institute pop-up podcast for anyone interested in understanding the effect of coronavirus on global politics. Each week for the next few weeks, Lowy Institute experts will sit down to discuss the implications of coronavirus for the world.</p>
<p><iframe allow="autoplay" frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/829558954&amp;color=%23ff5500&amp;auto_play=true&amp;hide_related=true&amp;show_comments=false&amp;show_user=true&amp;show_reposts=false&amp;show_teaser=true&amp;visual=true" width="100%"></iframe></p>
<div style="font-size: 10px; color: #cccccc;line-break: anywhere;word-break: normal;overflow: hidden;white-space: nowrap;text-overflow: ellipsis; font-family: Interstate,Lucida Grande,Lucida Sans Unicode,Lucida Sans,Garuda,Verdana,Tahoma,sans-serif;font-weight: 100;"><a href="https://soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute" style="color: #cccccc; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="Lowy Institute Audio">Lowy Institute Audio</a> · <a href="https://soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute/meg-taylor" style="color: #cccccc; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="COVIDcast: Secretary General Meg Taylor on COVID in the Pacific Islands">COVIDcast: Secretary General Meg Taylor on COVID in the Pacific Islands</a></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Jonathan Pryke</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Friday, May 29, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-regions field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Related Regions: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_regions publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/regions/pacific-islands-and-new-zealand">Pacific Islands and New Zealand</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Fri, 29 May 2020 00:45:05 +0000Jonathan Pryke364671 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgThere is no quick fix to our parlous relationship with Chinahttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/there-no-quick-fix-our-parlous-relationship-china
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Originally published in the <em>Australian Financial Review</em>.</p>
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<p>The Australians who advocate that the country reduce its export reliance on China have had good news of late. Beijing has decided to do the job for us.</p>
<p>If that sounds like black humour, it is, but only just.</p>
<p>In recent weeks, China has cut local barley and beef exports and may be targeting thermal coal. Each of those markets has their own dynamic, but there can be no doubt that Beijing wants to make Australia pay a price for leading calls for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19.</p>
<p>But behind the debate in Australia triggered by Beijing’s sanctions, over whether the government should have pushed for an investigation into COVID-19 on its own, or mustered support from other countries first, is a bigger issue.</p>
<p>Australia has now entered a new and dangerous phase in relations with Beijing, of how to manage the ever-present and very real threat from Beijing of trade sanctions in response to inevitable political disagreements.</p>
<p>On top of now settled sources of friction, over Taiwan, Hong Kong and the South China Sea and cyber attacks, there are numerous other points of conflict.</p>
<p>The precise scope of the World Health Organisation inquiry into COVID-19 will be a battleground in itself, with Beijing certain to resist unsupervised access to Wuhan.</p>
<p>When Australia begins to enforce its foreign interference laws, passed in 2018, it will shine an uncomfortable light on the Chinese community organisations in Australia which act as virtual CCP lobbies.</p>
<p>As US-China relations spiral down, Australia-China relations are likely to deteriorate alongside the superpower conflict.</p>
<p>In sum, there is no quick fix to the parlous bi-lateral relationship. There is no nice way to push back against Beijing, and it will doubtless come at a cost.</p>
<p>The approach of the more hawkish participants in the China debate to calibrating such costs is much like the way one of the British officers discusses battle tactics in ‘Master &amp; Commander’, the classic series of nautical novels set in the early 19<sup>th</sup> century.</p>
<p>“Never mind the manoeuvres,” the officer says, “always go straight at them.”</p>
<p>If Australian exporters lose valuable markets in the process, so be it. To argue otherwise, they contend, amounts to appeasement and “taking the money,” and sovereignty be damned.</p>
<p>But it isn’t just mining barons in Australia who are “taking the money”, although they do a pretty good job of it. The whole country is, most importantly of all, the treasury through personal and corporate tax receipts.</p>
<p>A healthy budget doesn’t just fund health, education and social services, through good times and bad. It also pays for the substantial defence build-up that the same hawks are (rightly) arguing for.</p>
<p>Australia in this respect is in a similar position to Japan. Both countries are spending more on defence in readiness for the rise of China. But to pay for extra defence spending, they partly rely on China to succeed.</p>
<p>However one describes this dilemma - it is either a vicious or a virtuous circle - the bigger point is that you don’t strengthen your national security by deliberating shrinking your trade and the economy.</p>
<p>Certainly, diversifying trade is desirable. But diverting trade from China is not necessarily diversification if the alternative markets aren’t there. In fact, it amounts to a loss of national income</p>
<p>It is all very well to talk about what large markets India and Indonesia will be in two decades. Compared to China, both countries’ economies are under performers.</p>
<p>It is possibly too late to change the downwards trajectory of bi-lateral relations. Australia and China increasingly have hard and settled views of each other. Whatever each country does, the other will assume they are acting out of the worst motives.</p>
<p>But perhaps there is a smarter way for Australia to play its hand.</p>
<p>When China was weaker in the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping famously prescribed a policy for relations with the outside world known by its shorthand of “hide and bide.”</p>
<p>In other words, Beijing would, as a matter of tactics, conceal its ambitions and bide its time until it was stronger, all the while not compromising any of its fundamental positions. </p>
<p>It was not a recipe for ceding China’s interests. Rather, Deng was resolving to preserve them so they could be advanced at an opportune time.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>If there was ever any doubt that such a policy was out of date, Xi Jinping has made sure to throw it out the window altogether. China isn’t biding its time under his rule.</p>
<p>Therein, there might be a useful prescription for Australia. We need more Deng and less Xi in setting our diplomatic parameters.</p>
<p>After all Australia’s tougher policy - foreign interference laws and the exclusion of Huawei from the new telecommunications network – had a clear aim.</p>
<p>We wanted to make ourselves a harder target for China, not the sitting duck that we might end up being. </p>
<p><em>Richard McGregor is a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute.</em></p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Richard McGregor</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Tuesday, May 26, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-regions field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Related Regions: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_regions publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/regions/australia">Australia</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/regions/central-asia">Central Asia</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Wed, 27 May 2020 05:39:27 +0000Richard McGregor364621 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgChina and Australia's relationship is souring but not weakeninghttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/china-and-australia-relationship-souring-not-weakening
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p data-trackable="subhead">COVID-19 and politics are driving them apart but trade keeps them together. Originally published in <em>Nikkei Asian Review</em>. </p>
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<p>China and Australia's bilateral relationship, already fraught, has reached new lows in recent weeks.</p>
<p>First, China's ambassador to Australia floated the possibility of a consumer boycott in response to Australia's call for an independent investigation into the COVID-19 outbreak. In mid-May, China threatened tariffs on Australian barley, following an 18-month investigation that claimed Australia violated World Trade Organization rules. And after these threats, it imposed an actual ban on some Australian meat producers.</p>
<p>What started as a diplomatic spat between Australia and China is looking like a trade war. It remains unclear whether China's moves represent a newfound willingness to incur costs for political reasons or if these are a warning to convince Australia to toe the political line.</p>
<p>But one of the unforeseen consequences of several years of difficulties in the bilateral relationship is that a new resilience has emerged.</p>
<p>Australia has been here before. Similar short-term slowdowns have hurt Australian exports in the past: coal and wine have been delayed or slowed at various entry points into China. China is more likely to threaten Australian goods and services which are cheap for Chinese buyers to substitute but expensive for Australian sellers to redirect to other markets. Finding alternative suppliers for iron ore is a challenge; tourism and higher education less so.</p>
<p>The tertiary education sector is watching this trade spat unfold with anxiety: having likely lost billions in revenue through COVID-19, the prospect of Chinese students not returning to Australia may deal some institutions a fatal blow.</p>
<p>As much as Beijing would prefer that Canberra did not release public statements on the situation in Xinjiang, where more than a million people are detained in "re-education" camps, or the prolonged detention of Australian citizen Yang Hengjun on charges of espionage, its complaints have not appeared to shift Australia's position.</p>
<p>Australia has tried to separate the recent economic issues from its call for an investigation into COVID-19. "An investigation around the handling of COVID-19 has no relationship whatsoever to Australian exports of beef or barley," said Australia's Trade Minister, Simon Birmingham.</p>
<p>China is Australia's largest trading partner by a significant margin. Previous chills in the bilateral relationship have not prevented the dramatic expansion of two-way trade: 21% year-on-year growth in 2018-19, for example.</p>
<p>But even before Australia's calls for a COVID-19 investigation, public opinion in Australia toward China had been on a downward trajectory: only 32% trust China to "act responsibly in the world," a 20 percentage point decline from 2018, and three-quarters wanted Australia to be less economically dependent on China.</p>
<p>In recent months, Beijing has sought to focus on its successes in virus management and its so-called mask diplomacy, but Australians remain unconvinced, perhaps thinking more about China's early mismanagement and cover-up of the crisis.</p>
<p>In a poll released last week, which I directed, more than two-thirds of Australians said that China's handling made them "less favorable toward China's system of government." Less than a third of Australians said China had handled the coronavirus outbreak well. By contrast, 92% said Australia had handled COVID-19 well.</p>
<p>Some level of decoupling was already underway before COVID-19, for example Australia's decision to exclude Huawei Technologies from its fifth-generation, or 5G, wireless network. More decoupling in particular industries may come in limited areas as Australia considers sovereign manufacturing in critical areas.</p>
<p>But as much as Australians want to reduce economic interdependence with China, the global economic downturn limits both the will and ability to drive such a difficult policy shift. With China edging back toward normal life, and still the globe's largest consumer market, few political leaders and consumers will be in a position to consciously avoid China's market.</p>
<p>Despite recent animosity, the pathway to recovery suggests that Australia and China's economic interdependence may only grow in the coming period -- even though their citizens will not like it.</p>
<p>Today, Australia and China are two of the few countries in the world that are reopening their economies having got the COVID-19 pandemic under control. For the anxious tertiary education sector, Chinese students looking for English-language education post-COVID have few options outside of Australia and New Zealand, as the U.S. and U.K. struggle with the virus.</p>
<p>China's threats and thinly veiled economic coercion will accelerate the souring of Australian views toward China. But disputes in the past have not dampened demand, nor convinced the Australian government to take a softer line on human rights or national security issues.</p>
<p>The two countries are inevitably major elements of each other's economic recovery. Politics is unlikely to change that.</p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Natasha Kassam</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Saturday, May 23, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Tue, 26 May 2020 05:47:36 +0000Natasha Kassam364581 at https://www.lowyinstitute.orgPush India towards the Quad to deter Chinahttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/push-india-towards-quad-deter-china
<div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>A four-country bulwark against Beijing's regional dominance is an idea whose time has come. To make it work, New Delhi must be convinced to join in. Originally published in the <em>Australian Financial Review</em>.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">No</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Publication Type: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_category publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/publications/commentary">Commentary</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-issue field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Issue: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_issue publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/issues/china">China</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/issues/india">India</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-2"><a href="/issues/japan">Japan</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-3"><a href="/issues/defence-security">Defence &amp; Security</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-4"><a href="/issues/united-states">United States</a></li></ul></div><div class="field-collection-container clearfix"><div class="field field-name-field-content-sections field-type-field-collection field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Full Article:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div class="field-collection-view clearfix view-mode-full field-collection-view-final"><div class="entity entity-field-collection-item field-collection-item-field-content-sections clearfix">
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<p>Whilst the world is reeling from the devastation of a virus the Communist Party recklessly unleashed, Beijing is seizing the moment. As the spread of COVID-19 subsides in China, Beijing has stepped up intimidatory actions in the Taiwan Straits and the East and South China Seas, is planning to impose national security laws on Hong Kong which would contravene the One Country Two Systems principle, and continues its economic coercion of Australia for calling for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. When the world recovers from the effects of the COVID pandemic, these Chinese actions will not be forgotten. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>Australia might not be a great power, but it is at the forefront of regional efforts to counter the worst aspects of Chinese actions. The key is to encourage and support as many capable states in our region to act to defend their interests against China, just as it is China’s primary strategy to neutralise the possibility of collective action against it. In this context, the Quad – consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the United States – has been raised as an important mechanism. Former Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Peter Varghese, for example, argues that the collective power of the four countries can serve as a bulwark against Chinese dominance.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Are these hopes justified or misplaced? The key is India which so far is the laggard despite New Delhi having a strong interest in preventing Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific. For the Quad to fulfil the hopes placed upon it, we need ways to activate India by understanding its strategic limitations and working within them.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>India is the outlier among the four because of its greater vulnerability to Chinese retaliation and lesser capacity to absorb any punishment. It has long-standing and substantial territorial disputes with China and India’s capabilities and resolve to defend its claims are periodically tested through Chinese military incursions along an un-demarcated 3,488 km “Line of Actual Control” between the two countries. The last crisis occurred in 2017 in the Doklam Plateau which involved a serious military standoff.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Other points of vulnerability for India include China’s military and diplomatic support for Pakistan, and the possibility that Beijing could encourage Islamabad to challenge the Line of Control in Jammu Kashmir directly or through proxies. India’s risk/cost calculation must also be understood within the context that it is still a developing country with a military budget almost four times smaller than China’s. Unlike the other Quad members, India also has a deep aversion to concluding formal alliances with any state. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>Things are changing. Under Narendra Modi, India has more appetite for standing up for its national interests as demonstrated by its firm response to China’s attempts to change the territorial status quo in the Doklam Plateau. Further, India’s perception that China is deliberately shrinking its strategic space has been magnified by the extension of the PLAN’s power projection capabilities into the Indian ocean, and the expansion of Beijing’s capacity to extend its political influence over India’s neighbours: Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri-Lanka. In this context, China’s underwriting of infrastructure investment through its Belt and Road Initiative and luring these smaller countries into a ‘debt trap’ is of high concern.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The Quad can be meaningful if we push in areas that bear Indian limitations and interests in mind. Australia should be included as an official observer of the next annual Malabar naval exercises between India, Japan, and the US, with non-permanent participation as the next step. To offer India some breathing space, naval exercises should occur in the Indian Ocean, rather than the South China Sea, with a focus on the provision of public goods (disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, anti-piracy and search and rescue) in the first instance, with the implication that the agenda could expand to include amphibious warfare and anti-submarine warfare depending on Chinese behaviour.</p>
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<p>Enhancing maritime domain awareness, the sharing of logistics for power projection and greater access to, and joint development of defence technology among the four are other obvious areas of priority. The Quad could also create an Indo-Pacific critical infrastructure fund – based on best practice governance standards - as a viable alternative to China’s BRI for small states that are vulnerable to debt-trap diplomacy as a result of their geostrategic value to China. To keep India committed, that fund should include economies around the Bay of Bengal in India’s backyard.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>These would be incremental measures where Quad members acquire the ability to accelerate and deepen collective action should the need to deter attempts by China to change the status quo increase. Meanwhile, Quad members would be developing the necessary institutional framework and personal relationships to do just that.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>General Secretary Xi Jinping is nothing if not a true Leninist. He is a devotee of the well-known Leninist precept: probe with bayonets. If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw. In strategic terms, the absence of a collective and countervailing force will only embolden Beijing while the presence of genuine resistance will cause China to recalculate.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>One should note that Beijing frequently denigrates the Quad because it respects and fears what it might become. This was the case before the pandemic and more so in a post-COVID-19 world. The Quad is an idea whose time has arrived.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Note: Read Dr Lee's full Lowy Institute Analysis on the Australia-India-Japan-US Security Quadrilateral Dialogue <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/assessing-quad-prospects-and-limitations-quadrilateral-cooperation-advancing-australia">here</a>. </p>
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</div></div></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-related-experts field-type-entityreference field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Authors:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Lavina Lee</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-posted-on field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Publication Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Monday, May 25, 2020</span></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-regions field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Related Regions: </h3><ul class="links rm-tag field_regions publications_new"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/regions/united-states">United States</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/regions/australia">Australia</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-2"><a href="/regions/india">India</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-heading-option field-type-list-integer field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Heading Option:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Option 1</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-interpreter field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Interpreter:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">0</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-is-institute field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Institute:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">1</div></div></div>Tue, 26 May 2020 00:33:53 +0000Lavina Lee364556 at https://www.lowyinstitute.org