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Saint John Housing Prices See Modest Gain in the Second Quarter of 2016

A surplus of listings remain available amid exodus of potential first-time buyers

SAINT JOHN, July 13, 2016 /CNW/ - The aggregate1 house price in Saint John saw a modest increase in the second quarter of 2016, rising 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $204,877 according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey2 and Market Survey Forecast released today.

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 3.1 per cent year-over-year to $228,174. During the same period, the median price of a bungalow declined 2.5 per cent to $180,506.

"Saint John continues to be a buyer's market as a result of noticeably high housing inventory levels in the region," said Stephen Hughson, manager, Royal LePage Atlantic.

"New Brunswick is becoming one of the 'oldest' provinces in the country, as a result of the outward migration of younger households over the past few years," continued Hughson. "We are becoming very over-indexed with Baby Boomers as our millennials move to Ontario and British Columbia for employment opportunities, which had led to marked decrease in housing demand from this group."

Hughson forecasts that surplus inventory in the region will put downward pressure on prices for the remainder of 2016.

Nationally, Canada's residential real estate market continued to show strong appreciation in the second quarter of 2016, posting the highest national year-over-year gain seen in five years. Amid continued world economic uncertainty, the historically low interest rate environment that has fueled Canada's real estate market growth in recent years – most notably in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) – is expected to continue longer than anticipated. This extended period of low-cost borrowing will in turn further delay the cyclical cooling of Canada's hottest real estate markets, originally forecasted for the second half of 2016.

The price of a home in Canada increased 9.2 per cent year-over-year to $520,223 in the second quarter of 2016. During the same period, the price of a two-storey home rose 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $619,671, the price of a bungalow increased 7.9 per cent to $437,121, and the price of a condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $348,189. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2016, Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 12.4 per cent when compared to year end 2015.

"Our forecasting models, which pointed to a slowing housing market as the year progressed, included a modest increase in the cost of borrowing," said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. "Economic and social disruptions have rocked the world once again, introducing new risks and making it very likely that the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates as-is for now. Few industries are as rate sensitive as real estate. We don't see even a mild correction for either the Toronto or pistol-hot Vancouver markets in 2016."

"Our call for 12.4 per cent national price appreciation in the final quarter of this calendar year as compared to the final quarter of last year, is a landmark in Canada. I believe it is the highest value put forward by any serious forecasting agency since the turn of the century," added Soper.

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the three most common types of housing in Canada, in 53 of the nation's largest real estate markets. Housing values in the House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, Brookfield RPS, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country's leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of over 16,500 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women's and children's shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.