San Francisco 49ers

Give me the Ravens over the Patriots (-7.5). How much of the betting line is driven by the Patriots impressive win over the one-dimensional Denver Broncos? How much is driven by another underwhelming performance by Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco? The Patriots are at home and have the better quarterback. They also have a defense that just might be coming together at the right time. The return of Patrick Chung (#25) to the lineup has inspired some confidence in New England that the back end just might hold up under duress. Who knows! The Patriots haven’t faced a team with a decent passing game since Week 12 (Philadelphia), and in that game, they surrendered 393 yards to Vince Young.

Conventional wisdom says the Ravens have to run the ball to win this game; that Ray Rice is their most reliable, consistent, and dynamic offensive player. The “smart money” says that Baltimore’s defense is beginning to show signs of age and strain; and, that they will be hard-pressed to defend the new tactical weapons in Brady’s arsenal (tight ends Gronkowski and Hernandez). Perhaps, this game will be decided by the battle between Patriots safeties Patrick Chung (and whomever else Belichick puts back there) and Joe Flacco. The Patriots tight ends have been tremendous all season long, but the Ravens tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are very talented and capable of exploiting mismatches all over the field.

The production of Gronkowski (90, 1327, 17) and Hernandez (79, 910, 7) during the 2011 season has been historic. Still, the more conventional and conservative Ravens had a productive duo. Hickson and Pitta combined for 94 catches, 1033 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Gronkowski and New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham were the only single players to eclipse those numbers. So, the Ravens also bring a viable tight end duo to this contest.

Perhaps the single greatest advantage in this game goes to Tom Brady. However, in recent years, Brady has proven susceptible to pressure up the middle combined with press coverage on his slot receivers. This approach compels him to hold the ball longer, while in a collapsing pocket. He must wait for his excellent (but slower) tight ends to uncover against man or zone coverage, or he must buy time with his feet. The Ravens have a solid rotation of defensive tackles, including Haloti Ngata, who are capable of man-handling the Patriots interior lineman, pressuring Brady, deflecting passes, and defending the run. I believe the game will turn on the ability of these players to pressure Brady and slow down the Patriots offense.

The 2011 Ravens defense, in my estimation, is not as powerful as the 2008 version. Still, the Ravens have some options. I believe that Lardarius Webb (#21) may wind up facing Wes Welker in the slot. The Patriots have the option of featuring Welker or either of their tight ends. I’m not sure that Deion Branch or any of the other wide receivers are still capable of having a big game against the Ravens (#Ocho!!). Ed Reed is going to spend a major portion of the day dealing with Gronkowski and/or Hernandez. This will place a premium on Bernard Pollard’s ability to cover, make tackles, and deliver big hits.

The Patriots did not win any games this season against teams that finished the season with winning records. I’m not sure what difference that makes. The Patriots beat teams that had Super Bowl aspirations all season long: San Diego, the Jets, Philadelphia. Still, they have managed to lose to teams that used physicality to dominate the line of scrimmage: the Giants and Steelers, in particular.

I like the Ravens physicality in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Baltimore 31, New England 21.

It’s pouring down rain in San Francisco. I like the Giants as much as any team in the league in bad weather. The last time these teams met, Frank Gore played a half, and Ahmad Bradshaw missed the entire contest. Bradshaw’s return to the lineup means a great deal for him and Eli Manning, but it also makes Brandon Jacobs more dangerous…and in bad weather, with a wet track, Jacobs’ change of pace may be just what it takes to finally power through that impenetrable San Francisco defense.

The Giants have more versatility on offense. The 49ers have more depth on defense. But if the rain is going to affect the Giants pass rush, it’s also going to affect 263 pound Aldon Smith. I like Cruz, and Nicks, and Manningham more than I like Michael Crabtree and whomever else the 49ers have found to play opposite him. Vernon Davis is a phenomenal talent, but he is not a wholly unique talent. I like the Giants to live with his production and force someone else to beat them.

For the first time in a long time, I can say I was largely bored by the Week 5 action. There simply were not many great games played this week. Perhaps a bit of the separation between teams is beginning. Perhaps conditioning on older teams is beginning to kick in. Are the fogeys starting to get their legs?

If nothing else, I’m fairly certain that you’ll need garlic, silver, and a very, very, very long stake to kill the Packers this season. In fact, that might only kill off a few of them. Last year, they won with 38 guys and 15 “what’s his names.” This year, with 53 guys they’re just pounding the living daylights out of game plans, and opponents and their smack talking fans.

The Lions aren’t scared, but the Lions haven’t played this team.

The Falcons had the Packers by the holes in their Swiss speedos…and they let ’em off the hook.

Cam Newton threw the worst pass of his career on Sunday. It so happens that it was his first pass of the game. And, it so happens that instead of winding up in the waiting hands of Steve Smith, it wound up in the hands of the New Orleans Saints. The pass was returned deep into the red zone and led to an opening touchdown. The Panthers played uphill for the rest of the day. By the time they mustered up the strength to take the lead late in the 4th quarter, the defense was running on fumes and gave up a decisive score. The Panthers dropped another close game, 30-27. The team seems to be getting close. Losses this season have been by 7, 7, 5 and 3 points respectively. Next up, a desperate Atlanta Falcons team.

We’re going to find out a lot about the resiliency of these teams on Sunday. The Falcons are hosting and should win by 10-14 points, but the Panthers have exceeded expectations all season.

Do you want to play this team?

Frank Gore: Opening Up A Can of Whoop! on the Bucs

The Lions do. The Bucs didn’t. If you had high expectations for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, it’s probably time to put those on the shelf until 2011. The team has three marginally impressive wins (I’m being kind) over Minnesota (1-4), Atlanta (outdoors), and Indianapolis (sans Peyton Manning). The Bucs lost an eagerly anticipated matchup with the Lions in their home opener and this weekend, they laid the egg of all eggs. Last year, Tampa was strong enough to go West and return with a 21-0 win over the Niners. This year, the Bucs were forced to walk the plank in an embarrassing 48-3 rout.

In other news around the league:

Quick Pass Roethlisberger passed for five touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans. Four different receivers caught touchdowns. Slow Pass Roethlisberger apparently missed the bus. Steelers 38, Titans 17. If he gets rid of the ball on time and uses all of his weapons, the Steelers will score lots of points for the rest of the season. Mike Tomlin’s fake punt call opened the floodgates. Kudos to the coach with the cojones.

The Giants figured out a way to do the unthinkable. Big Blue blew a chance to take tremendous strides in the division by losing a home conference game to the lowly Seattle Seahawks. While the Cowboys and Redskins watched at home, and the Eagles stuggled elsewhere in the state of New York, the Giants were busy finding inventive ways to put their guests in unique scoring positions. The Giants also hosted a Coming Out Party for Stanford’s Doug Baldwin (8 rec, 136 yds, 1 td).

The Andy Reid Reject Bowl took place between Arizona and Minnesota. There were no winners there, except for Donovan McNabb. Statistically, he did enough to keep the train on the track. Kevin Kolb was abysmal. Thankfully for Kolb, he is benefitting from a media white out that has yet to call for his head. Kolb may well be the NFL’s leading affirmative traction candidate.

Kolb, Part Deux. The national media may have already been instrumental in duping the Cardinals into believing he was worthy of his juicy contract. Kolb is not a proven winner and he faces a significant up hill climb. It’s too bad he only has Larry Fitzgerald. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start reading articles about how Larry has lost a step or doesn’t know the playbook or gives up on plays or something — and if we do, they’re sure to come from ESPN (Chris Mortensen — Week 9?)

The Vikings need to get better at the QB and the WR position. McNabb’s not a Back Foot Betty (Favre, Romo, Kolb, etc.), but he just throws too many balls in places that defy explanation. Berrian is fast but he has not used his speed wisely in tight spaces. He isn’t getting separation and has demonstrated poor route running and pass catching over the first month of the season. He has to step his game up.

One thing that struck me about the San Diego Chargers is that Philip Rivers has always been blessed with well-rounded backs. LT2, Darren Sproles and Michael Turner were not one-dimensional. LT and Sproles were excellent blockers. Turner has been known to throw a knock-out block or two as well. Tolbert is solid, but he’s not as proficient as Turner across the board. Matthews is on the rise, but he has yet to arrive. The overall versatility of LT2, Sproles, and Turner gave the Chargers a much bigger matchup edge than they have now. The well has not run dry, but it is simply not as deep.

Matt Cassel’s ribs are healed. Four touchdowns and a close relationship with Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston mean big things for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles isn’t there, but Jackie Battle has stepped in and played well. The Chiefs look a little different this season, but they have some pieces and are still in the fight. Following historically bad losses to Detroit and Buffalo, the Chiefs have rebounded with wins over mediocre teams and are in position to challenge in the AFC West.

The Chiefs and the Jets are both 2-3. The teams in the AFC West ahead of the Chiefs are Oakland and San Diego. The teams ahead of the Jets are New England and Buffalo. If the Chiefs are definitely out, so are the Jets. Right?

The Jets. Ehh!!! The Jets. Losers on the road at New England. Losers on the road at Baltimore. Losers on the road at Oakland. There is a reason why this was called “The Make or Break Portion of the Schedule.” Up next: Miami, San Diego, bye, @Buffalo, New England, @Tebow, Buffalo. And then there’s that Week 15 game vs. the Eagles. It’s early, but this team is going to be CHALLENGED to make the playoffs as a 3rd entry from the AFC East. Put simply, if the Jets get in, it will come at the expense of either the Steelers, Chargers, Raiders or Ravens. They’ve already lost to the Raiders and Ravens. It doesn’t look good.

I’ve got nothing on the Eagles.

Quiet as it’s kept, the Houston Texans dropped another game in which the performance of QB Matt Schaub was decisive. Last week, Arian Foster did the heavy lifting vs. the Steelers. Schaub has to prove he can get it done in big games. Next up: Rested Rapacious Ravens Relentlessly Ripping Ravaging and Rolling with Ray Rice.

The season is winding down and the significant games for this week are in the books. Tonite, the San Francisco 49ers play the Arizona Cardinals. The game may well prove to be very entertaining (Remember last year’s tilt in San Francisco?), but both of these outfits have proven unfit for the rigors of this season. Big winners this week: the New England Patriots who have found a way to get deep without deep speed; the San Diego Chargers who are serving notice that they are a team to be reckoned with — until the playoffs start; the Chicago Bears who provided a template for beating the high-flying Eagles; the Atlanta Falcons who showed that in the Dirty South, they have just enough to take all comers; and the “Survivors” — Pittsburgh and Baltimore — who were probably peeking around their Week 12 opponents, and thinking about health insurance for Week 13.

Chargers, Chargers Everywhere!

A few random thoughts:

As great as Peyton Manning has been in his career, he cannot like living THE LIFE OF MCNABB right now. Without Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Ryan Lilja, Manning is experiencing life on the other side. He still has Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and others, but this is his first taste in years of getting hammered — with no hope of relief. Manning, unlike McNabb is not able to make plays with his feet — and it shows. He’s giving up interceptions for touchdowns. He isn’t choosing to throw the ball at the feet of his receivers to avoid turnovers. He’s taking big risks and losing. Fortunately for Manning and the Colts, they’ve lost 2 games in a row, but moved ahead of Jacksonville in the playoff hunt.

In 5 of his last 7 games, Manning has averaged less than 6 yards per pass attempt. That’s awful. You cannot win in today’s NFL doing that. During that span, the Colts are 4-3, with one of those wins coming by 6 points over the Bengals who were “fueled” by Carson Palmer’s 3 INTs. Manning has thrown 10 picks over the frame — and had two games with no touchdown passes.

The national media is articulate, understanding, and acutely accusatory in their analysis of Peyton Manning’s present condition. Commentators are able to identify injured players at skill positions and along the offensive line. Many have become Maddenesque with their ability to break down offensive line play (Exhibit A: former wide receiver Cris Collinsworth; Exhibit B: Yahoo.com’s Shut Down Corner column). THE LIFE OF MCNABB, however, is not about making excuses. It’s about making plays…even when playing with guys like James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, Hank Baskett, and Freddie Mitchell. It’s about figuring a way to move the ball on the ground even when your running backs all weigh 180 pounds soaking wet and the last tackle they broke was made by a toddler on the living room floor. The Colts may make the playoffs, but I suspect Peyton Manning may need what Jay Cutler needed last year if he is to right this ship, right now.

It’s that time of year again. The NFL season opens on Thursday with a highly anticipated rematch of the defending champion New Orleans Saints and the team that thoroughly dominated them in the NFC Championship Game, the Minnesota Vikings. Darrelle Revis is on the roster and ready for a visit from Anquan Boldin. And Anquan’s not coming alone. He’s bringing a 10,000 pound offensive line, that “other” defense, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. These are great bookends to the first week.

"Don't Leave Me Hanging on the Island!"

But before we get ahead of ourselves, I have a few takeaways from the pre-season. Last pre-season, I was impressed by a few teams. There was something about their intensity, passion and power that stood out. The Jets were not on that list. I did put a spotlight on the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals. Not bad…those teams went 33-15. That was much better than their combined 20-27-1 record in 2008. I was also down on Denver. When they started out 6-0, I was thinking — “Hmmm, might have missed on that one.” When they finished 2-8, I felt better.

After going 13-2 two weeks ago (missing on Oakland over Cincinnati and Kansas City over Pittsburgh) and following that up with a 10-6 week (including a 41-17 prediction of New Orleans over New England), there is no doubt that I am on fire!!

It is officially “on.” We have passed the half-way point of the season. National sportswriters, desperate for an angle, have begun to pass out “Midway Medals” and “Halfway Honors” to players they cover every week, and the opponents they love to hate.

Tonight, I like the 49ers to win a tight contest. I’ve picked the Niners on the road vs. the Texans and at home vs. the Titans. They lost both games. In between those winnable games was a hard fought loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Now that the 49ers have definitively proven they would be the “weak sister” of the AFC South, its on to small fish in the NFC.

I know the college interns have been pouring over databases all week looking for the last time two teams played one another in the same season they lost by that score, by that margin, on a Thursday night, in prime time, with playoff hopes hanging in the balance, with two Black head coaches, with highly-touted quarterbacks who have not quite fit in with the team that drafted them, and, last but not least, with axes to grind against the Minnesota Vikings. This is certainly going to an epic matchup.

It could go one of three ways:

San Francisco 45, Chicago 10.

Chicago 45, San Francisco 10.

San Francisco 10, Chicago 10.

There simply isn’t enough time to wait for both of these teams to score 45 points.

I’ll take option 1. The Niners get it together at home and the world is introduced to Alex Smith for the first time and Vernon Davis, for the second time.

The week isn’t over yet, but on Sunday, some teams lost more than a single game. It’s still early enough that anything can happen, but some teams may be watching their seasons fall apart. Let’s take a look at the early casualties.

San Francisco 49ers. You knew the Titans were a dangerous opponent. With Vince Young quarterbacking and Mike Heimerdinger calling plays, the Titans were sure to rely on a conservative attack and their ability to pound the rock and force turnovers. That’s exactly what happened. The Titans won 34-27 on the road and forced Alex Smith into a sloppy, hurried game. Frank Gore was dynamic and versatile, but he didn’t dominate the action like he did before the Viking game. Suddenly, a team that began the season 3-1 with quality wins over division opponents is sitting at 3-5. The bad news is that first-place Arizona won at Chicago on the strength of a 5 td performance by Kurt Warner (without Anquan Boldin). The good news is that the Niners only trail them by 2 games — and already have a win at Arizona. Mike Singletary has changed quarterbacks. They score more points with Smith, but have less ball security than under Hill. Next up: the Bears, Packers, Jags, Seahawks. There is no reason this team can’t be 7-5 in a month. Book It: If they’re +8 or better in turnovers over that time frame, they’re going to the playoffs.

New York Giants. If the playoffs began tomorrow, the New York Giants would have the same vantage point as the New York Yankees, and you and I. They’d be watching from home. The Giants have lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals and San Diego Chargers. They’ve lost on the road to the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles. There really is no shame in losing to any of these teams. The Saints finished in last place last season, but they’ve been remade and have yet to lose a game this season. Arizona and the Eagles played in the NFC Championship game last year. San Diego is a perennial playoff contender. That the Giants have lost to these teams in consecutive weeks is surprising. That the Giants have failed to score more than 20 points in any of these games is shocking. The Chargers have been an enigmatic bunch all season. They’re 5-3, but could be 7-1 or 2-6. They’re inconsistent and have been unable to stop the run since the injury to Jamal Williams in September. All of that sounded like a recipe for resurrection in the Meadowlands. It didn’t happen. Instead, the same depleted secondary that was undressed by Drew Brees was dissected by Philip Rivers. The Giants could do “soul-searching” or any number of things on their bye week, but the answers (like the problems) are on the field. The execution is simply what it has been — on either side of the ball. When the sun rises tomorrow, the Giants will be 2 games behind the leader of the NFC East. Next up: Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia. This could get much worse before it gets any better. Book It: If the Giants are not able to defeat second and third tier quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Kyle Orton, the season will be over before they meet host Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks.

Eli Isn't the Only Man On the Run (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Baltimore Ravens.The Ravens are kicking themselves tonite for taking the Bengals lightly. I don’t know why they continue to do that. It seems they forget that they have a 3-8 record vs. Carson Palmer. They don’t scare him. He torches them more regularly and scars them more deeply than any QB in the league. Really, if they think about it, they’re his bird bitches. They probably don’t like to admit it, but 8 wins is 8 wins. The Ravens know they will not be winning the AFC North this season. They will not be beating the Steelers twice. They may not even beat them once. The good news, though, is that they hold tie breakers over the Broncos and Chargers. Only 1 of them can win the division. If the Ravens can somehow manage to get to 10 or 11 wins, they can sneak in as the 3rd in the AFC North. New England, a probably division winner is the only team they’ve lost to in the AFC aside from Cincinnati. It means their destiny is still in their own hands. Baltimore can win 6 or 7 of their final 8 games. If they do, they’re in because of their wins over the AFC West. Next up: Browns, Colts, Steelers, Packers. They get Indy and Pitt at home. Book It: If Baltimore finds a way to win these 4 games and wins out until their Dec. 27th game in Pittsburgh, they’ll beat whomever they play in the Wild Card round.

Teams like the Bears, Texans and Packers lost games yesterday that likely surprised their die-hard fans. What Bears fan doesn’t expect to beat the Cardinals in Soldier Field? In all honesty, the Bears simply are not the same team they were at the beginning of the season. The Bears were fortunate to beat the Steelers this season — and that win has been the cause of all “great expectations” since the signing of Jay Cutler. It was a quality win. It was something the Vikings were unable to do. Still, there hasn’t been much for the Monsters of the Midway to hang their hats on. Without Urlacher and Hillenmeyer, I don’t expect much.

For all their talent and perennial promise for unleashing potential, the Texans simply cannot be expected to win at Indianapolis. I expect them to do what they did — play tough, play a little less than smart, and lose.

The Packers simply are not a good team. They play unevenly and had to be flatter than week-old Coke after playing against Brett Favre under the national spotlight at home last week and then traveling in anonymity to lifeless Raymond James Stadium for a late game vs. a rookie quarterback and a rookie coach. Teams that lose games like this don’t really belong in the post-season. Green Bay will find their way out.

Addendum:

Philadelphia Eagles. Anytime you lose at home to a division rival, it’s painful and it adversely impacts your playoff positioning. This version of the Eagles is losing games they are supposed to win. They’ve lost at Oakland…and now this. If you don’t think the Eagles are going to regret this loss, consider that over the next four weeks, they will be on the road at San Diego, at Chicago and at Atlanta. The Eagles could lose every one of these games. The last time the Eagles played on the West Coast, they lost to Oakland. Against Dallas, the Eagles only ran the ball 23 times. They didn’t run many plays overall. Philly only converted 4 of 12 first downs, including some notable failures on 3rd and 4th down with short distances to go. Jason Peters was injured. Asante Samuel was roughed up. Sheldon Brown was toasted. Brian Westbrook was inactive. Michael Vick was ineffective (He’s got time.) McNabb looked like his ribs are still sore…and he also looked like he always looks.

After going 5-8 last week, it couldn’t get any worse could it. Let me get this out of the way first. I was wrong about Miami being able to hang on and beat the Saints. I was wrong about Chicago at Cincinnati…really, really wrong. Sorry Cedric. I was a believer at the end of the preseason. I just slipped. Next time you all are in New York to collect rent from the Jets, holler!

I wasn’t perfect this week, but I was better. Heading into the Monday night game featuring the heavily-favored Eagles vs. the seriously-sedated Redskins, I had a record of 7-5. Let’s get to the good.

The Classics

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Minnesota Vikings 17. I have maintained two things since the beginning of Brett Favre’s flirtations with the Vikings…that this team is going to be a tough out in the post-season and that if the Vikings play teams that Adrian Peterson does not dominate – teams that force Brett Favre to beat them, he’s not going to do it. I don’t dislike Favre. For me it’s simpler than that. Since 1997, he hasn’t won more than one playoff game in any season. To play in a Super Bowl, the Vikings will need to win 2 or 3 playoff games. The Steelers allowed 69 rushing yards to Adrian Peterson and the game was put in the hands of Favre to win or lose.

He threw 51 passes. The chances of losing increase exponentially for most QBs after 45 passes (at least in the post-season). Favre, for much of the game, did a masterful job of mixing up plays. The Vikings attacked short and deep. There are were a few plays where only good fortune and a very strong sun prevented Percy Harvin from dominating the action. He is a very impressive young player. The hamstring injury to Bernard Berrian significantly impacted the game. Berrian did drop an easy pass, but he was otherwise having his way with William Gay. Berrian’s speed forced Gay to play off — leaving room for underneath routes. When Berrian went out of the game, Favre was reduced to throwing to Harvin, Sidney Rice (another great game) and Visanthe Shincoe.

The Steelers still have issues. Rashard Mendenhall is a fumbler — until proven otherwise. He’s not a nice back who happens to fumble. He’s not a young power back with great speed and agility who happens to fumble. He’s a fumbler. He is a player who jeopardizes possessions each time he touches the ball. After his Red Zone fumble yesterday, Coach Mike Tomlin went to former Viking Mewelde Moore to hold down the fort. Moore, of course, is not a powerful between the tackles runner, but he is not a fumbler.

The NFL and its fans are so unforgiving that when injuries strike, there is often little recognition of what impact it may have on the team. Media types and casual observers go from signing your praises to telling you all the ways that you are overrated.

That’s what people were saying on Monday after a week of surprising outcomes. Perhaps none was more surprising that the score by which Atlanta dominated San Francisco and the method by which Miami defeated the New York Jets. (more…)

Sirius Options

Why Hollywood Is Wrong About SOPA

In the battle between Hollywood and Silicon Valley, the tech world seems to be gaining ground. In a major protest against the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and Preventing Real Online Threats to Economic Creativity and Theft of Intellectual Property Act of 2011 (PIPA), a number of high-profile sites are planning a total shutdown for January 18.