Although Imran Khan's protest rally or "lockdown" of the capital Islamabad scheduled for November 2 was abruptly called off (or replaced by a thanks giving rally), problems for Nawaz Sharif are not going to end soon.

While
the high court gave a verdict against the lockdown, at the same time
Pakistan Supreme Court paved way for a probe in connection with
corruption charges against Nawaz Sharif and his family as per leaked
Panama Papers. It asked for a TOR (Term of Reference from petitioner
as well as the government).

In
Focus

Many experts in
Pakistan believe that although Nawaz was saved from Imran Khan's
lockdown of Islamabad to oust him, he will find it difficult to get
rid of the Pakistan SC monitored probe. But then, this could be an
immediate breather for Nawaz as the probe is likely to take much more
time. Even Nawaz could complete his tenure by that time.

However the point
is whether Nawaz Sharif would be able to complete his term? I don't
think so. By all accounts, Sharif is going to lose power by the end
of 2016 and won't be able to contest the next elections. To
understand this, I have presented the below analysis:

The drastic
political outcomes in Pakistan are always influenced by Indo-Pak
conflicts. Pakistani military is the supreme power in Pakistan. But
whenever Pakistan gets defeated by India in an armed conflict, the
civilian government is blamed and military dictatorship takes over
the rule officially. This has happened after every war between India
and Pakistan. In 1999, Kargil War happened due to Musharraf's
ambitions, about which even Nawaz Sharif wasn't aware. When India
retaliated and Pakistan had to abandon even the dead bodies of their
soldiers, Pervez Musharraf-led army should have taken the
responsibility. But instead, Nawaz Sharif was dismissed through a
bloodless coup by the army, making Pervez Musharraf the new dictator
of Pakistan.

The present case
is also similar. The surgical strike by India may not have been
officially accepted by them but everyone in Pakistan knows about it.
This is a great embarrassment to them because Pakistan never expected
India to carry out such an attack against a nuclear powered nation.
Raheel Sharif is retiring this November and must be a pained person.
He never wants to retire with such an embarrassment. Thus, things are
being done overtime to blame Sharif and oust him.

Imran Khan's
lockdown was in fact planned by the Pakistani Army. The aim was to
force Nawaz Sharif to resign. Those who know Pakistani politics must
be aware of Imran Khan's limited support base in Pakistan. Thus, a
large scale protest was only possible by the support of Pakistani
Army. There was also a proposal of JuD chief Hafiz Saeed addressing
the lockdown rally had the court not interfered. The point to be
noted here is that Hafiz Saeed never criticises the Pakistan Army but
rather blames Nawaz Sharif government for Indian dominance in the
region.

It's now being
planned to corner Nawaz Sharif through proof of his involvement in
Panama Papers leaks. He would be forced to resign and then will not
be allowed to contest in the next elections. Similar arrangements are
being made to ensure that key PPP leaders are banned from contesting
elections on charges of corruption. Raheel Sharif will contest the
elections being the head of the coalition minus the PPP and Muslim
League (N).

Raheel Sharif
can't stage a direct coup because of certain provisions of American
law which will stop all kinds of financial aids (including
humanitarian) to Pakistan. Thus, he wants to take over the country
through elections (even if it requires rigging). The only problem for
Raheel Sharif is that should Nawaz declare the next army chief of his
own choice. At the moment, Nawaz Sharif is trying his best to do so,
but at the same time, Raheel Sharif too is trying his best to
dislodge the government before Nawaz announces the name of the next
army chief without his consent. In the coming fortnight, I think
things will move in a particular direction which will clearly tell
whether Nawaz is able to retain power or Raheel Sharif will have the
last laugh.

If elections are
fought under Raheel Sharif's leadership, a win for him is almost
but certain. For information of some of the peace doves of India, let
me say very clearly that people to people contact will never solve
any problems between India and Pakistan. Anti-India seeds are
systematically sown in the minds of all Pakistanis since their
childhood. Thus, irrespective of whatever might happen, Pakistani
people will always have anti-India sentiments and arbitrarily indulge
in anti-India activities. Pakistani Army is by default more
anti-India than any civilian government of Pakistan can ever aspire
to be. Thus, Pakistani people will always support their army generals
and readily accept them as their political masters.

That's why one
shouldn't be surprised if Raheel Sharif becomes the new political
face of Pakistan in the coming weeks. Nawaz is most likely to be
dismissed soon and no Pakistani will shed a tear for him. I can only
say that may God save Pakistan.

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