Sunday, April 17, 2011

A Harper Majority--A Fractured Country?

Warren's column this morning gives an idea of what we might expect out of a CPoC majority, but I think he's missing something: the next Que. provincial government is likely to be Separatist. Given that the Harperites traffic in divisive rhetoric, and their party platform includes a number of measures (repeal of the gun registry, elimination of the per vote subsidy) that are vastly unpopular in that province...do you really want these guys governing unchecked over the ROC in advance of another referendum? Look what happened last time.

Marois is an extremist. I wouldn't put anything past her. However, there is one slim hope for Charest. It was decided in the PQ leadership review that their program would indeed expand Bill 101 to CEGEPs and trade schools. Most in Quebec, while they support the basics of 101, don't support the expansion to post-secondary education. However, don't count on that to be enough for folks to come out en masse on election day to hold their nose to give Charest another mandate.

Outside of Montreal, where the threat of separation is strongest, Liberals continue to be hated.

Because of the 1995 Referendum?Really? In the 2000 election, the Liberals got 44% to the Blocs 39.9% and took almost half the seats. This also a few months after the Clarity Act. The party has also been second in the subsequent elections except for the 2006 one. (The Sponsorship scandal probably accounts for this more than the referendum.)

The rise and fall of Liberal support inside Quebec are probably similar to the reasons outside the province.

If Quebec separates, a conservative party would be more likely to be elected with majorities. The rest of Canada is more right-wing than Quebec.

Of course, if the Conservatives were the party in power when Quebec separates they would be a big vote loser and crash and burn in the next general election. But a right-wing party could reform from the remnants of the Conservative party, and win majorities in the ROC over the long haul.

Next election will be tough for the LPQ as they would be seeking a 4th term in office, and that's tough even if your government is somewhat popular.

However the Charest government has two things going for it, first is Charest has actually been wining any of these corruption cases flying around (though in the end that may not matter much, the damage is done regardless). The second is Pauline Marois may be popular with the PQ faithful, but the Quebec voters don't share that enthusiasm. She's actually a drag on the party's numbers.

One wildcard that's in the realm of real possibilities, that Charest resigns and LPQ finds a popular leader to take over. That could change everything quickly.