Monday, January 21, 2008

Final Predictions for the 80th Academy Awards

So, it's come to this? The image that represents this 2007/08 Oscar season - for me - is the below one from the I'm-predicting-it-to-be-nominated-and-a-so-hope-it-does The Simpsons Movie of Homer Simpsons swinging back and forth between a rock and a hard place. I think it perfectly encapsulates this season. Let's discuss, briefly, before getting on to the main event.

All season long I've been saying to myself "Atonement will be nominated" yet it kept getting rebuffed by guilds who, and I freely admit this, had an abundance of other worthy titles to honour. And it's frustrating because, for once, the preordained "frontrunner" actually - in my humble opinion, of course - actually deserved to be the frontrunner and to be winning awards. Unlike last year when something like Dreamgirls, a movie I liked, was winning guild nominations for pretty drapes and curtains and for it's shoddy editing work.

However, when I came to put my predictictory thoughts to the screen and I realised I just couldn't leave Atonement out. Call me stubborn, or biased, but last year when the Academy snubbed the frontrunner Dreamgirls, they substituted it with a Clint Eastwood-directed Steven Spielberg-produced World War II film. While I'm always up for arty foreign stuff to be recognised, but can The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which has barely scratched $2.5mil really make it into the best picture lineup? Buzz be damned, but can the youth-scewering antics of Juno (and the fact that outside of actress and screenplay I highly doubt it will receive any other nominations) get enough top votes to get in as well? Well, if you ask me it's one, the other, or neither. And I couldn't decide so I fell back on the "period" horse (okay, gross mental images be gone). The passion there is Atonement is strong and I am positive that people put it at #1 or #2 on their ballots.

...whether it was enough. Well, we'll see tomorrow. Plus, let's face it, it hurts me just as much to see Into the Wild in there as it will be pain me to see Atonement miss.

Quick Note:Nat @ the Film Experience tells us that Jonny Greenwood's score for There Will Be Blood has been disqualified. If you have already read my predictions then you would know I predicted Greenwood would be snubbed anyway so it doesn't effect my predictions (I am a smartiepants), but now it means Michael Giacchino has an easier shot at finally getting a nomination for Ratatouille.

BEST PICTUREAtonementInto the WildMichael ClaytonNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTORPaul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be BloodJoel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old MenTony Gilroy, Michael ClaytonSean Penn, Into the WildJulian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I'm not sold on Gilroy, but I think Joe Wright (Atonement) will have missed the boat with the directors and all the other contenders too for that matter. And then I remembered the director of Capote was nominated several years back, which I found strange because it didn't scream out as a director's movie. But, there ya have it.

BEST ACTORGeorge Clooney, Michael ClaytonDaniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be BloodJohnny Depp, Sweeney ToddEmile Hirsch, Into the WildViggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

I imagine they'll go for Hirsch's invisible performance rather than tap the Ryan Gosling well again so soon and for such a bizarre movie. But, I'll be more than happy for them to prove me wrong!

DON'TEVEN! I'm sticking my neck out for The Lovely Laura Linney - hoping enough people saw her amazing year and put her name down over the likes of Blanchett. But, let's face it, if Cate's name is read out on Oscar morning we all know it's not because the movie was a fantastic masterpiece.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTORCasey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert FordJavier Bardem, No Country for Old MenHal Holbrook, Into the WildTommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old MenTom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Now, will whoever announces the nomination actually read out the entire name of Jesse James or abbreviate it like they did last year with Borat? And I am entirely aware that double nominations are rare in the male category, but I just think more liked Jones' wounded sheriff than Hoffman's... whatever he did. I can't help but hope they did, quite frankly.

Other than Blanchett and Ryan I think they could all miss, quite frankly. Swinton is very much the arthouse savant, which has tripped so many up in the past, but she has a potential best picture nominee to work with so I think she's relatively safe. Either/Both Ronan and Dee could easily be replaced by either/both Catherine Keener (Into the Wild), Jennifer Garner (Juno) and Kelly Macdonald (No Country). It's a minefield.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYEastern PromisesJunoMichael ClaytonRatatouilleThe Savages

I know a nomination for Eastern Promises appears strange, but my theory is they nominated Cronenberg's last film in the writing categories (that'd be A History of Violence) and Stephen Knight's similar underground London-based thriller screenplay Dirty Pretty Things. That and I couldn't decide what else to put there. Lars and the Real Girl seems like just the kind of quirky flick that critics love, yet the Academy just does.not.get. So... I'm sure I'll be proven wrong. Just watch!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYAway from HerThe Diving Bell and the ButterflyInto the WildNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be Blood

Perhaps more than anything come Oscar morning in the major eight categories, I want Sarah Polley to finally become an Oscar nominee and with her delicate beautiful and intimately sparse drama Away from Her. Almost nothing would make me happier outside of bizarre sitings for This is England or Ratatouille in best picture/director.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYThe Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert FordAtonementThe Diving Bell and the ButterflyNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be Blood

BEST ART DIRECTIONAtonementHarry Potter and the Order of the PhoenixLa Vie en RoseSweeney ToddThere Will Be Blood

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE3:10 to YumaAtonementEastern PromisesLust, CautionRatatouille

eeeep! I'm predicting a snub for Jonny Greenwood's apparently amazing score for There Will Be Blood. We've experienced with this branch many times before that they like to get to know you before they invite you to mean the parents. We'll see. If he does in fact get a nomination then I think we can offically call the music branch integrated! I mean... no, I've got Hairspray on the brain. We can call it whatever the correct term would be!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM"12"BeaufortThe CounterfeitersMongolThe Year My Parents Went on Vacation

BEST DOCUMENTARYAutism: The MusicalLake of FireNo End in SightSickoWar/Dance

I dunno. I was merely gonna copy Nick's because he seems to know documentaries, but - on the other hand - he knows documentaries and when do the specialty branches ever do anything right?

AND THAT'S A WRAP, FOLKS!

We'll know in about 24 hours, if my calculations are right, whether we're right or all horribly horribly wrong (which a lot of the time isn't actually horribly, but turns out to be wickedly fun!) Enjoy these moments of suspence while they last because once the nominations are announced it becomes all about who will win and that is usually a much easier thing to work out than this whole shebang, right? Right!

We're on the same page re: the acting races (only differing in Lead Actress, where you optimistically went with Linney), so let's hope you're right.

I'm fully expecting to miss the boat on Best Picture. Last year, I went 3/5, and furthermore there hasn't been one season in which I've successfully predicted all the nominees in that category. Good luck with your Atonement picks!

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