Forecaster Predicts 2.6 Percent Drop in Florida Citrus Production

Friday

Aug 16, 2013 at 2:18 PM

By KEVIN BOUFFARDTHE LEDGER

WINTER HAVEN | Citrus consultant Elizabeth Steger has forecast Florida growers will produce 130 million boxes of oranges in the 2013-14 citrus season beginning in October.That represents a 2.6 percent drop from 133.4 million boxes harvested last season.Steger’s annual August forecast is the first estimate of the coming season’s crop and is thus widely watched by Florida citrus growers and juice processors, who annually buy 95 percent of the state’s orange crop. Although more than 50 percent of the orange crop is already committed to processors through long-term contracts, the Steger estimate will affect negotiations between growers and processors for uncommitted oranges.A big question remains, however, as to whether Florida growers will see a repeat in the unprecedented level of pre-harvest fruit drop experienced during the 2012-13 season. A source who was at Friday’s meeting between Steger and her clients said she averaged the past two seasons in calculating pre-harvest drop.Last season’s unanticipated pre-harvest drop threw the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s own orange crop forecast down 13.4 percent from October until its final July estimate. The USDA will release its initial 2013-14 citrus crop forecast on Oct. 11.Polk leads the state’s citrus-producing counties with 82,572 grove acres and 9.9 million trees in 2012, according to USDA data. It historically leads the state in citrus production, as it did in the 2011-12 season with 31.2 million boxes. It ranked No. 1 in orange, tangerine and tangelo production and third in grapefruit.

[ Kevin Bouffard can be reached at kevin.bouffard@theledger.com or at 863-401-6980. ]

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