Microsoft's Big Gamble Could Be Linux's Big Shot

"I think there is an opening, but it may close quickly," said Google+ blogger Kevin O'Brien. "People who try Windows 8 on a desktop or laptop will hate it, but that is what will be pre-loaded. If they want Windows 7, they will have to actually purchase it, which most of them have never done. That is where Linux has an opening."

By Katherine Noyes
10/29/12 5:00 AM PT

Now that Windows 8 has made its long-awaited and widely trumpeted debut, there seems to be a fresh air of excitement and purpose here in the Linux blogosphere.

This, of course, is not to say that many of us here are particularly excited about
Microsoft's new OS, per se. Quite the opposite, in fact: Many of us are excited about the opportunity Win 8 means for Linux.

"In the past the Linux has failed to capitalize on Microsoft's errors and capture new users," explained the TuxRadar crew in a new
Open Ballot poll, for example. "We want to know what you think the Linux community can do this time around to bring dissatisfied Windowsers into the Linux fold.

"Is it all about the hardware, or should we emphasize the community? Should Linux users or Linux companies lead the charge? Should we target businesses or home users?" TuxRadar wondered.

Down at the blogosphere's Broken Windows Lounge, bloggers had no shortage of ideas.

'Its Interface May Seem More Familiar'

"At this point, Linux is in an interesting position in that its interface (which before was considered 'foreign') may actually seem more familiar to the average computer user than the interface for Windows 8," Linux Rants explained.

At the same time, "our ever-present problem is still there, and that's the fact that Linux has a reputation for being hard to install and even harder to use," he added.

'Linux Lacks an Advertising Department'

"Linux needs to push OEMs to ship computers with Linux pre-installed and configured, and then those same OEMs have to be convinced to tell people about those computers -- often," Linux Rants suggested.

"The one thing that Linux really lacks is an advertising department," he noted.

"Even OEMs that support Linux tend to push it to the back shelf, where it's hard to find," Linux Rants concluded. "Linux needs to be shown to the general public and compared to Windows 8; that alone could easily double Linux's share of the market."

'Retailers Have to Wake Up'

Indeed, "today GNU/Linux runs on just about every kind of computer, from gadgets to clusters of mainframes in every part of the world," blogger
Robert Pogson pointed out.

"The only problems are retail shelves in North America and Europe, where all one can find that's a PC has that other OS," he noted. "That's nothing that GNU/Linux can solve.

"Retailers have to wake up and look at the shelf-space that's stagnant with Wintel PCs not selling," he asserted. "They've had three quarters with much reduced turnover of Wintel PCs as Android/Linux is selling like hotcakes on the next aisle. Wake up and sell some GNU/Linux PCs!"

'It Won't Last Long'

Google+ blogger Kevin O'Brien took a similar view, but with a caveat.

"I think there is an opening, but it may close quickly," O'Brien told Linux Girl.

"People who try Windows 8 on a desktop or laptop will hate it, but that is what will be pre-loaded," he pointed out. "If they want Windows 7, they will have to actually purchase it, which most of them have never done.

"That is where Linux has an opening," O'Brien explained.

That opening, however, "won't last long," he predicted, "for two reasons: 1) most of the Linux desktops use desktop environments that will be at least as foreign as Windows 8 (e.g. GNOME, Unity); and 2) if there is any noticeable movement to Linux, Microsoft will enable some kind of free 'downgrade' to Windows 7."

Linux distros need to concentrate "more on 'familiar' and 'works' than on being innovative," consultant and Slashdot blogger Gerhard Mack opined. "Otherwise Windows 8 users will take one look at Unity or GNOME 3 and simply buy an Apple."

Five Easy Pieces

Along similar lines, Slashdot blogger hairyfeet rattled off five requirements:

1. "Within five years, 100 percent of drivers must work on update, as we retailers can't sell systems that are gonna break in six months," hairyfeet began.

2. "CLI HAS to die, NO excuses," he said.

3. "A 'HELP ME!' button that will allow Suzy the checkout girl to easily connect to a volunteer to work on her system, similar to Windows remote assistance," hairyfeet suggested.

4. "NO hardware roulette!" he added. "The era of 'let the devs do it' with regards to drivers is over; it's time for the hardware makers to supply drivers -- which they can't do as long as Torvalds and friends constantly futz with the guts." Still, "if Suzy can't walk into ANY B&M and buy add ons for her computer with 100 percent confidence, you have FAILED," he said.

5. Finally, "settle on a DE and STICK WITH IT," hairyfeet concluded. "No more switching horses mid-stride, no more 'Distro A uses B, Distro Foo uses bar.' If you want to have OPTIONAL DEs that's fine, but the defaults for everybody need to be the same so that resources can be focused on making the defaults as trouble- and bug-free as humanly possible."

'Android Is What Comes Closest'

Then again, in some ways, Linux has already won over the masses, Google+ blogger Alessandro Ebersol pointed out.

"Not the traditional GNU/Linux -- not Arch, nor Debian, nor Puppy -- but Android, which is the best commercial Linux distribution," Ebersol explained.

"The average Joe is waiting for something like XP," he noted. "Android is what comes closest: easy-to-get apps, a big number of apps, and Google to back it up."

"If Linux wants to lure more users, it can be Android," Espinoza told Linux Girl. "This is so far the most popular Linux-based system with the users, and they're the ones who give the computers a reason to exist.

Katherine Noyes has been writing from behind Linux Girl's cape since late 2007, but she knows how to be a reporter in real life, too. She's particularly interested in space, science, open source software and geeky things in general. You can also
find her on Twitter and
Google+.