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The image below (made by me) shows what the Chinese have to do to come to Delhi from the G219 highway. The road itself is situated 4500 meters AMSL. It is 70 km from the border. From the border the route passes through mountains including the Nanda devi parbat nearby. But over a span of about 200 km the altitude drops from 4500 meters to 500 meters or so.

saip wrote:Chinese seem to be seriously rattled. Is it Agni V (which is yet to be inducted) or Trump's trashing 'One China' thingy ? May be they think if Trump can do that, can India be for behind.

Its definitely not Agni V - they knew we had the capability long back.Trump's trashing of the 'one china' thingy likely to culminate into their downwave surfing in south china sea is causing enormous takleef to the Chinese.To save face China is likely to get aggressive on India - similar to why 1962 war was started post sino-soviet split.

If wal bloke out (with the Xinjiang/Tibet population) they would surrender ASAP to the Indian Almy which is by far the friendlier, and a few of them would be shipped by helicopter and transport plane to Delhi to sweep the streets, shine shri Kejliwar's shoes etc. They only said "their motorized troops" and "paratroops". Not entire divisions but just a few. Where's the need for dhoti shivering, hain?

What else can they do if they are caught with all their tanks etc on the G 219 which is cut off on the other side by angry Muslims and Budhists? They are much better off surrendering to Indian Army for protection, hain? I am so glad they do have a survival plan. If the Tibetans/ Xinjiangis catch them...

A long time ago, we looked at the North Korea tamasha. IIRC, our conclusion (duh!) was that the tamasha is orchestrated by Beijing and is synchronized with the POTUS 4-year cycle, pushing up the ante each cycle. Our recommendation was very simple: The POTUS should boldly announce that the US/UN will move with all haste towards Korean Re-Unification. Initiative taken by ROK (south Korea). We reasoned that this would resonate across all of Korea, and pull the mat out from under the Pee All See and its grand designs.

Well... no recent POTUS has had the golas for such an innovative move. The 'Zee does, if his rather strange new advisors and his deadwood pile of dimwit Republican "allies" will let him. The Pee All See, if they game this deeply, will see that Chinese designs will essentially collapse if the above happens.

Maybe they sense that this is coming. Or perhaps there are things going on in Xinjiang and Tibet that even I wouldn't report here.

Also, read the reports coming out about vacuum inflations etc in Baluchistan. So if their plans to access the Pakistan Ocean and South China Sea collapse simultaneously, plus access to the tip of Myanmar, the Pee All See gets reduced to banana lepubric status. A really strong showing by the Yoo Ess fleet can do this. Hence the saber-rattling maybe.

UlanBatori wrote: A really strong showing by the Yoo Ess fleet can do this. Hence the saber-rattling maybe.

Was about to post something else but this caught my eye. The US is sending a 3rd carrier group to the vicinity of cheeni bilathels. Meanwhile - the first Chinese operational deployment of the Liaoning lasted only 3 weeks. wtf? I mean just 3 days ago I read "Tantadannnn!" Liaoning enters Taiwan strait" And then 2 days ago "Phussss" Liaoning back home.

The dlagon might calculate that a 'limited' war with a NFU nation short of N-escalation is do-able and increasingly desirable too.

Imagine having to answer a restless Han quom on why growth rates have stalled despite evermore credit fuel pumped in, having to explain to even nominally friendly states why their borders can never be safe from cheeni revisionist history and claims, having to tell big trade partners why cheen has a right to export all it wants but will control imports and currency levels.... etc etc.

CPC realizes that ASEAN implicitly trusts democracies way more than PRC's opaque, fickle, opportunistic and amoral way of working, anyday. And yeah, India like umrika is a democrazy too. onlee.

Guddu wrote:Not sure why hakeem ji posted this...do we have to dignify this claim with a response..

Good question - in fact more thoughts went through my mind than I can list in this post but I will try1. Motivation for the report: If you suffered through the video I posted - you see that the scenes have been taken by videographers embedded with Chinese forces and in many cases the video cameras have been set up to present dramatic and effective views. So the video scenes have the backing of someone in the PLA 2. The map showing the plan of invasion of India looks silly to me - but I see the Chinese media making provocations and also responding to provocations in the Indian media and social media. By that I mean that we on BRF are not such high up official commentators to consider ourselves "above" the Chinese media where we need not "dignify" this report with a response. We are only an internet forum of people who do nlt know each other and we are more like rabble-rousers and propagandists and we must respond to this video 3. The report is typically Chinese. A loud threat that hopes to cause fear and confusion and sow doubt. It won't be long before Indians start pan-wetting and talking about this "threat". That is probably the exact response that the Chinese would want. After Indians start wetting their pants - they will dispute any claim made by the Indian armed forces or the MoD dsmissing the Chinese threat and start howling about how we lost in 1962. So it is important to take this threat onto the realm of social media and forums and tear it apart (or take it seriously) based on whatever people feel about it. 4.The video shows a lot of warfare in the plains. Those plains exist only in Tibet or in closer to Delhi - there is a 200 km broad mountain range in between. So what were the makers of the video thinking. They seem to me as amateurish as any time-pass forum run by Indians, but they have access to high quality video footage for proper-gandu purposes

I intend to work on several of the points I have mentioned, in no particular order in due course

I have a hard time seeing an Indian retaliatory strike/riposte going deep enough into Hanstan to seriously worry them. I mean, trudging across Tibet or Xinjiang or Aksai Chin is not going to be swift or inexpensive. Assam mountains are not conducive to swift mobile invasions. Do u seriously believe that there can be massive aistrikes on Beijing? With what? So IF they can launch a swift strike from the mountains into Indian plains and withdraw b4 there is a serious aerial or ground/guerrilla jhapad, they may be able to achieve a lot of objectives, incl to put a Timur-type fear into yindoostan. Who is going to challenge them/ come to India's help? Not the Russians, nor the Americans. The Dunia Odour is now very different from that in 1962 even. So the 48hr/10hr stuff may be stretching it, but the fact is that they are more war-ready.

The Chinese believe in shock-and-awe, although the expression was invented much more recently by the Amreekis. That said Chinese shakinah is more often verbal-psychological, but they have done it militarily too and their videos suggest that this is the effect they want to convey.

Coming to the report itself - I think Chinese motorized troops coming into Dilli in 48 hours is a stretch - but a suicidal paradropping in the middle of a border war is possible. Imagine border clashes in the East and west - associated with a concerted LeT terrorist push in Kashmir - and suddenly the Chinese (foolhardily?) decide to airdrop a few hundred troops with vehicles in the plains a 100 km from Delhi. This sounds more like a water-pump handle scenario - because I can't see how lumbering transport aircraft can fly 100-200 km into India and not get intercepted. It would be suicidal - but if even 50-100 men were actually dropped in - even if they were to be killed - it would cause a serious diversionary redistribution of Indian forces and logistical efforts. One can never tell how stupid or desperate an attacker or defender might be.

Paradrops deep into enemy territory are hardly a new idea. They were done in ww2. The Pakis did it in 1965 and failed. Indian paradrops in Bangladesh (Tangail airlift) in 1971 were a resounding success

So in that sense this seemingly hare-brained Chinese report throws up some interesting time-pass discussion possibilities

UlanBatori wrote:I have a hard time seeing an Indian retaliatory strike/riposte going deep enough into Hanstan to seriously worry them. I mean, trudging across Tibet or Xinjiang or Aksai Chin is not going to be swift or inexpensive. Assam mountains are not conducive to swift mobile invasions. Do u seriously believe that there can be massive aistrikes on Beijing? With what? So IF they can launch a swift strike from the mountains into Indian plains and withdraw b4 there is a serious aerial or ground/guerrilla jhapad, they may be able to achieve a lot of objectives, incl to put a Timur-type fear into yindoostan. Who is going to challenge them/ come to India's help? Not the Russians, nor the Americans. The Dunia Odour is now very different from that in 1962 even. So the 48hr/10hr stuff may be stretching it, but the fact is that they are more war-ready.

Well we could have men in Lhasa in a few hours..but I wanted to get to that in due course

Chinese soldiers talking about the toughest post they have to patrol and man. Watch the poor desi soldiers lugging the water all the way to the top on their shouldersWatch the rotting vegetables sitting next to the coal. Watch the lack of reliable electricity. Watch the lack of snow

and now compare with our men doing the same in Negative 40 Degrees.

Humans will always rise to the occasion Chinese or Indian.

If the Chinese push into India, we will counter and finish them off in due time. If you believe you are done for if someone pushes 140 Kilometeres into your territory, you are a defeatist. PUSH them Back out

these vectors, scales and distance from A to B are the stuff of amateurs on both sides. I am sure they have their young jingos in plenty who are not rising to the top of journalism very quickly by doing the day to day boring stuff and hence start the sensational stuff.

I have a different perspective altogether. There has been almost zero people to people contact between cheenees and Indians, so it was easy for cheenees to build propagandu that there is only one rival to be subjugated, aka ankil.

But when people like me go to cheen and show them Bangalore metro or even Chennai metro with me sitting and taking selfie, or some forum mall or Phoenix mall, it's like an eye opener for them. They think that India is like Somalia or some... Or like pakis... Begging for investments from cheen. In fact they all know that the exports from China to India tripled under Modi. But what rattles them is when I say Chennai is just 10 years behind Shanghai, with proof, (I should be seen in the selfies) they get rattled. When cheenees come to India, they even bring bottled water and don't even go away from their group and they live in construction sites in air conditioned containers. They don't see around and talk to any Indians. Recently there are rumors that cheenees send prisoners for work abroad, I don't deny that, as the level of ignorance about Indian progress and challenge to cheenees, is simply unacceptable to the party guys. But slowly but surely, Indian challenge is getting sunk, in the past one year especially. That is the reason why PLA is making extra effort to show propagandu videos like this.

They are still puzzled as far as Modi is concerned as they think that Modi is all talk and fart, but when it comes to China, he will increase the trade on Chinese terms etc, for which they have solid proof, which I could not disprove, but if I could do that as well, they would become hyperbole and actually do something to teach India a lesson. They are itching for that.

NRao wrote:IF their eco starts to decline for much longer they will start a war, somewhere.

Well they have offered India a fast route to solving all border issues yesterday. Day before the had a fit when news about Akash to Vietnam came out. But they have consistently blocked efforts against Masood Azhar. There is definitely some g**nd mein khujli going on in China. No better place than internet and social media to talk about the implications....

As someone mentioned earlier, Cheenis are under pressure.1. US staffer, named them for obstructing India, in NSG.2. DT is threatening them again and again, claiming that one China policy is on the table.3. US sends 3rd carrier to Pacific4. Even France criticising them about Masood (though they may be doing it to sell planes).5. India sending Agony 56. CPEC not going all that well7. Chinese economy slowing down8.Mattis saying China cant have the islands

Thank Allah, Obummer is leaving. Nothing seems to be going their way....

DT brings out China's inherent insecurities and Chinese proving Mark Twain's dictum of removing the doubt of being Smallwilliesilliwithmushgiilibuffoons . I think they just realized that arrival of New Mountain Strike corp is coinciding with US moves in SCS. India have Dragon's tail while DT punch them on the face ,defanging them and Japan poke them in the eyes.

even if they road is not jammed, they are counting too much on maya/akhilesh built roads..it would be fun having them caught up in cave ins of the roads..and the best part would be them encountering a herd of sheep/goats of gujjars in their peak driving time..and who knows they might get kidnapped while passing through Azamgarh...

NRao wrote:IF their eco starts to decline for much longer they will start a war, somewhere.

Well they have offered India a fast route to solving all border issues yesterday. Day before the had a fit when news about Akash to Vietnam came out. But they have consistently blocked efforts against Masood Azhar. There is definitely some g**nd mein khujli going on in China. No better place than internet and social media to talk about the implications....

I stopped following any Chinese news.

However, generally speaking, the two headed hydra will need something to keep their populace distracted. What better than making India the bogey?

Perhaps we should keep an eye on the frequency with which such announcements are made. The frequency would be a great indicator as to how bad they are doing - more such news items, the worse their situation.

If it is a serious thread, there needs to be a bit more realism in assessing Chinese capabilities in logistics as well as sheer massive number of expendable and mobile weaponry and men. It's tougher on China now to launch 'human wave' attacks as we learned from 62 and Vietnam propaganda, because now every soldier is an iklauta beta with no sisters, bros, uncles or aunts. Wasting them in a needless war may bring serious khurji inside cheen.

HOWEVER, a couple of stories from ret'd ppl with frontline experience in the Himalayan Border. Once an Indian Major and his driver went in an SUV to visit frontline posts. The driver left the major for some time, the major wandered off, and when the driver returned, he was nowhere to be found. India launched massive searches, with helicopters, etc etc. Nothing. Yes, there was an ice-fall nearby but they didn't see anything.

Then the Cheens sent a map with a precise GPS coordinate marked on it. The Major's body was under a huge block of ice. they had seen the whole thing happening. The Indian searchers had not bothered to look seriously. The body was now at the foot of a slope, inside Chinese lines. They gave permission for the Indians to come over there and retrieve the body, may even have helped.

Second story: On Indian side, there are posts where it takes 5 days of climbing up and down mountains on foot to reach. Apparently the Cheens kindly sent a map showing exactly where to dig 2 tunnels to shorten this and build a road link. On Cheen side they have already done all these things. Roads, even rail lines have been laid.

Third story: that was how a battalion of Indian soldiers was wiped out during the 62 war by knife-wielding Chinese mountaineers who slid down ropes to get down an 'impossible' cliffside that was left unguarded.

As for the Chinese report, I DO have a clear and logical explanation, though it may greatly raise the votes in the "Ban-UB" US Electoral College.

U may not have read the real khulji in Cheen media after the Agni-5 test. They whined that India was violating "UN" norms (MTCR I suppose). BUT... China recognized that India, being the 6th member of P-5, needed ICBMs to chest-thump as a major power. So then what was their problem?

They asked: WHY is it that the Indian media, in reporting every missile test, have to come out with projections of which Chinese cities are threatened? China welcomed India's official clarification that Indian missile tests were **NOT** targeting any country in particular. China understands that. BUT again - why the utter genocidal hostility of the Indian media towards China?

(And of course, the conclusion was that Pakistan also needs same types of missiles because world is being so unkind and unfair to Pakistan..)

But shiv, now you may see why the Chinese brag about driving into Dilli. It is precisely to make ppl like us (well... some of us are too sophisticated of course ) to jump up and down, so they can watch and go As they are doing now. ******* End Serious Post **************************************************

UlanBatori wrote:Second story: On Indian side, there are posts where it takes 5 days of climbing up and down mountains on foot to reach. Apparently the Cheens kindly sent a map showing exactly where to dig 2 tunnels to shorten this and build a road link. On Cheen side they have already done all these things. Roads, even rail lines h

This is exactly why this "news" is going to be discussed in India - because of the widespread perception that the Chinese have infrastructure right up to the border while we don't.

What is never discussed (except occasionally by Rohitvats and in an article I wrote for DefenceforumIndia) is the fact that the Chinese side of the border is mostly flat and the Indian side has mountains gradually coming down from 5000 meters to 500 meters over a distance of about 200 km.

Terrain (and geography) are the least understood and least discussed aspects of BRF's weareaheadofcurveness. It also seems to be unknown to Cheeni media dickswingers

-Dusty/smoky non Europe like atmosphere over Indian skies-turbid waters with silt and warm and cold layers playing havoc with submarine designs made for the North Atlantic or even Pacific-Mountains in the north - blocked in winter slushy in the Monsoon, and rivers flowing full in spring

When Chinee pulls out his dick and waves it - that is a good time to talk about what it is that makes Chinee diffelent from Desi.

The dlagon might calculate that a 'limited' war with a NFU nation short of N-escalation is do-able and increasingly desirable too.

If both adversaries are NFU, then war becomes more likely, because the more powerful party will try salami slicing techniques to achieve multiple goals, such as establishing an Asian hegemony, destablizing India - the only adversary in Asia that is capable of mounting a long term challenge to China, using a war to quell domestic criticism etc. India is uniquely vulnerable to salami slicing because of our multi ethnic multi lingual nature. If we idly watched the ethnic cleansing of pundits, why will we risk mushroom clouds over dilli for some hill tribes (as seen by the Lutyens elite)?

We should neither shiver, nor die laughing but take Chinese threats seriously. My personal favorite is to pull a Paki on the Chinese and deploy nuclear armed Prahaars with Division commanders in the NE. If the Chinese think they can annihilate a division, they should be prepared to face the prospect of tactical nukes.

A second idea is mahabums, but doing that will have serious repercussions and must be done in consultation with the west.

Guddu wrote:As someone mentioned earlier, Cheenis are under pressure.1. US staffer, named them for obstructing India, in NSG.2. DT is threatening them again and again, claiming that one China policy is on the table.3. US sends 3rd carrier to Pacific4. Even France criticising them about Masood (though they may be doing it to sell planes).5. India sending Agony 56. CPEC not going all that well7. Chinese economy slowing down8.Mattis saying China cant have the islands

Thank Allah, Obummer is leaving. Nothing seems to be going their way....

Good list. Out of this I think No7 is the important one. Eleven has said he's OK with 6 per cent growth. But the stats which the Chinese have themselves been sharing over the past decade or so is that they need 7 per cent and above to ensure there are enough jobs for all the folks who are coming into the job market every year.

Unlike India, where a majority of the job seekers get absorbed by the informal sector (low paying but a job nevertheless) most Chinese look for formal sector employment since their expectation has been set at a higher bar (which by itself is not necessarily a bad thing). But when there aren't enough jobs to go around and sustain the great migration from the hinterlands that's when CPC has a problem in its hands. And it doesn't help that China is fast losing its clout as a low cost manufacturing haven.

CPC has been known to whip up jingoism whenever there's a problem at home. I think this is warning shot of more to come in terms of jingoism mean for domestic consumption. Another link to the chain is the fact that increasingly more folks are talking of India as a new manufacturing hub and it's not just Modi with his aim to make manufacturing 25 per cent of the GDP (from the current 17 per cent).

So if a scenario builds up where jobs flee China and land in India then what better way to keep the local Hans satiated than by giving them the wet dream of cruising to Delhi in 48 hours. In this respect its not much different from the 10:1 jingoism or the Munna. I think there's between a two-way fermentation. Add to this Trump's cat among pigeons act of saying the one China policy is on the table!

Let's do a public display of a dhoti shiver and then get the popcorn and beer ready. I would love to see the US sending three carrier battle groups on a leisurely cruise through the Indo-China sea for a visit to Japan. I'm betting then the 48 hours will become 36 hours!

sudeepj wrote:We should neither shiver, nor die laughing but take Chinese threats seriously. My personal favorite is to pull a Paki on the Chinese and deploy nuclear armed Prahaars with Division commanders in the NE. If the Chinese think they can annihilate a division, they should be prepared to face the prospect of tactical nukes.

A second idea is mahabums, but doing that will have serious repercussions and must be done in consultation with the west.

One of the problems of perception that I see (on BRF) is this constant refrain of Chinese ability to do things to us. Why are we obsessed with the idea that we will always be on the defensive in a border war. As I see it we could well end up grabbing chunks of Tibet.

THAT is what bothers the Chinese - because if they start losing a land war they will have to escalate. And if they escalate - that is where the Agnis come in.

The point I am making is that our inherent Indian need to dhoti shiver makes us rule out any Indian gain or advance whatsoever. The Chinese do not do that. For all their bluster they know damn well that they could take a licking in a border war and if they do it is the escalation that causes problems. Can they back down from a war they start and lose face or escalate and face Agony?

What will the Chinese do if we kick their butt and grabs huge chunks of Tibet? Dick waving will not cut it.

I agree with Shivji. I say we should not fear but even encourage an Indi-Cheeni war. This would expose the lizard for what it is. Its military has not fought a real war in 4 decades. There is a reason for that. It might be nothing more than a puffed up giant balloon that just needs someone brave enough to stick a fork into it.

A victory over the PRC will vault us into number two slot of global powers. My heart quickens at the thought!

If China starts a border war and achieves a quick limited victory like 1962 - what is the need to fear Agni. India - getting butt kicked and losing some mountains and NE tribes is hardly going to nuke China.

On the other hand if China starts a border war and they start losing territory - they will have to escalate or lose face along with their war aims. If they do that then India will have to escalate too. And that is when their missiles and our Brahmoses come into the picture culminating in the Agony.

If China were confident of winning a land war as easily as they wave their dicks about - Agni does not enter the picture at all.