Dealing with a rising China

A rising China feels that it must defend its interests more assertively. Naturally, this will upset quite a few, bringing more complicated outcomes than expected. Illustration by Anirban Ghosh

China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping has been viewed by some as confident and/or assertive. This point is arguable, what is not is that China has indeed been speaking out more and acting more forcefully. China's rhetoric and such moves may make sense in a certain context, but the question is-s

China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping has been viewed by some as confident and/or assertive. This point is arguable, what is not is that China has indeed been speaking out more and acting more forcefully. China's rhetoric and such moves may make sense in a certain context, but the question is-should they be viewed as aggressive? At the same time, some of China's external behaviour is truly controversial, so there is room for improvement.

If we consider the East China Sea and South China Sea issues as case studies, we can analyse why China's actions are reasonable on the one hand, but on the other hand, why they might not be ideal. From 2010, China-Japan relations have become more tense, largely due to disputes over territory in the East China Sea and due to historical issues. In 2012, Japan nationalised the Diaoyu islands (note: the contested islands are referred to by Japan as Senkaku islands), breaking a long-time tacit understanding with China. China responded strongly by dispatching its official vessels to the territorial waters, once a week on average in 2012-13, and by sending an official plane to the territorial airspace in December 2012. In 2013, China declared an East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) with no grace period.

China's strong response sharply contrasts with its past moderate image which it had built over decades. However, its "assertive" action is not without reason. Since the Diaoyu islands issue is highly sensitive, Japan's nationalisation of the main islands served only to negate its earlier understanding with China to shelve the dispute, which in turn invited China to follow suit. At a time when China's overall national strength has gone up rapidly, Japan's imprudent move to change the status quo was provocation enough for it to react strongly.

Under Xi, China has not fomented a crisis in its relations with Japan, but has responded to provocation firmly and legitimately. That said, there is room for China to ponder on how to respond with more measured reactions. While forceful action represents China's will and competence, Beijing could employ a more moderate and skilled approach to present its position. Otherwise, it is prone to stir up Japan's nationalism and deepen US-Japan defence ties, which runs counterproductive to China's interests in shaping a more amicable peripheral environment.

The South China Sea issue is similar to the East China Sea one, where China has legitimate interests to defend. Under Xi, China has been far more visible in protecting its sovereign and economic interests in the region, but its high-handed moves have also deepened pervasive concerns in the neighbourhood, especially with regard to how it may wield its presence physically. The disputes over the South China Sea issue are complicated but this doesn't mean they cannot be resolved peacefully and diplomatically.

For sure, these disputes have not emerged during Xi's regime, but for complicated reasons they have become highly tense under his leadership. China's speedy and massive reclamation in the South China Sea also exacerbates concerns in various quarters as such moves change the status quo, violating the Declaration of Conduct of the Parties of 2002 (between ASEAN and China). China may argue that it is Vietnam etc who started the reclamation first but that in no way is reason enough for it to justify its own actions.

These actions have led to the international community interpreting it as China's "confidence" or "assertiveness" under Xi. As mentioned above, China has acted for its own reasons, it's actions have always been a response, not a provocation. China responded to Japan's nationalisation of Diaoyu islands. In the South China Sea, China responded to the situation that islands and reefs in the Spratly islands have been occupied by some of its ASEAN neighbours (while the latter have maintained a long silence over China's claims). Such facts are often less noticed.

That said, under Xi, China's current approach is indeed impressive-it may be highhanded but it has always been confident. At a time of China rising, it feels that it needs to defend its interests more assertively. Naturally, this will upset quite a few, bringing China more complicated outcomes than it expects. This in turn warrants that China revise its stance, employ a more effective approach which defends both its physical interests as well as its long-held 'smiling' image.

The writer is professor and associate dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai

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