posted at 8:45 am on August 6, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The Department of Labor announced another mixed-bag status this morning on employment. Non-farm job losses hit 131,000 in July, thanks mainly to the departure of 143,000 Census Bureau temps. Private-sector payrolls gained 71,000, an improvement on the past two months — but still not enough to claim overall job creation gains when considering population growth.

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Federal government employment fell, as 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 71,000.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 14.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 9.5 percent, were unchanged in July. …

In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 6.6 million. These individuals made up 44.9 per-
cent of unemployed persons. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate (64.6 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.4 percent) were essentially unchanged in July; however, these measures have declined by 0.6 percentage point and 0.4 point, respectively, since April.

The employment-population ratio remained at 58.4%, which means we’re still skipping along the bottom end of a generational dive. Discouraged workers remained at 1.2 million for the second straight month. The minimal job creation hasn’t moved people back into the workforce, and the population is still outgrowing the jobs.

This isn’t a Recovery Summer. It’s a slow slide, certainly better than the rapid disintegration of 2009, but we haven’t replaced those jobs yet, either. Job losses are cumulative. In a normal recovery with proper economic policies of lower barriers to investor entry, we would see a rapid replacement of jobs in this time frame that would take us back to somewhere around 80% of what was lost, with the remaining 20% being the most difficult to recover. We have not yet even begun that ascent. I’ll update this with a couple of slides later this morning to demonstrate the problem.

Expect the White House to hail the best private-sector job creation numbers since March, but economists won’t get fooled. We’re still descending, and will until we get job creation solidly above 100,000 new additions per month.

Update: This is ugly:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +433,000 to +432,000, and the change for June was revised from -125,000 to -221,000.

That’s a subtraction of 97,000 jobs over those two months. That’s very ugly — and perhaps even “unexpected.”

Employment fell for a second straight month in July as more temporary census jobs ended while private hiring rose less than expected, pointing to an anemic economic recovery.

They also forget the point about job losses being cumulative, as they almost always do, by attempting to cheer people up about layoffs and terminations having “moderated significantly”:

Despite the tepid private sector jobs growth, the pace of layoffs has moderated significantly from the first quarter of last year, when employers were culling an average of 752,000 jobs a month.

Well, yeah — because those jobs are still lost. No one thought that pace would continue forever, regardless of the economic policies of the Democrats. The point is that a year later, we should be looking at significant gains in recovering those jobs, not tooting horns because the slope of the decline has shallowed out.

Update III: In Update I, I had thought the May revision was down to +422K, a drop of 11,000, when it was only a drop of 1,000 to +432K. That makes the two-month revision 97,000, not 107,000, which I’ve fixed above.

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Comments

As the pool of us still working decreases due to job loss, hastened by the demrats policies, you can expect the monthly numbers of newly unemployed to decline each month until we are all unemployed and on never ending unemployment and then Nasty Pelosi’s fairy tale will have come true, (Unemploymnet benefits are jobs creators as it will be the last or only JOB some will ever have) and the Summer of Recovery will be complete!

Only problemm is that idiot OBiden was one or two summers off!
Sure to be complete by fall 2012 when Dear Reader is up for re-electification!

But AP radio news (I don’t know why XM Patriot plays that propaganda every hour) said that the recovery is still going. It has only taken a small pause. I guess the recovery was going so fast it needed to take a break.

But AP radio news (I don’t know why XM Patriot plays that propaganda every hour) said that the recovery is still going. It has only taken a small pause. I guess the recovery was going so fast it needed to take a break.

cobrakai99 on August 6, 2010 at 11:08 AM

The recovery is still going on. I’ve been focusing on the private sector job growth for a while, not the overall job growth which includes governmental jobs. A few months back, when the census and other governmental jobs showed a big swing, all of you generally were also focused on the private sector numbers, not the total numbers.

Regardless of what the report says most people’s perception of how bad it is (and may become) stems from what they’re seeing around them. I’m pessimistic and this is why: I happen to live in a very affluent area of the midwest (avg HH income around $100k) where disposable income has never really been an issue for those that I live around.

I own a small business in the area I happen to speak to other local business owners regularly and what I’m hearing is that sales are off, as in strong double digit (b/w 10% and 40%) from last year. I’ve spoken to a few guys (one RE agent since 1974) that tell me that they’ve never seen it this bad, even compared to the craziness in the 70′s and 80′s.

Now this isn’t across the board nor is everyone getting killed, but it’s common enough to tell me that consumers and businesses know that times aren’t likely to improve anytime soon. Summer is when most businesses have strong sales and if it isn’t happening now it’s bound to be downhill into next year.

Regardless of what the report says most people’s perception of how bad it is (and may become) stems from what they’re seeing around them. I’m pessimistic and this is why: I happen to live in a very affluent area of the midwest (avg HH income around $100k) where disposable income has never really been an issue for those that I live around.

The perceptions are going to be the real issue. People who are scared won’t spend as much. Businesses who are scared won’t hire. Etc. It can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Obama’s policies won’t lead to any “recovery”. A bounce along the bottom maybe, but a recovery? No way. Businesses hire when there is sustained excess demand that warrants increased production. Which is of course as result of increased economic activity. The policies that he’s put in place (or allowed to occur ala tax increases through their expiration) are just now being felt and WILL increase the cost of doing business that can’t easily be passed on to the consumer. Truth be told, if half of the O-care regs are fully implemented, we’ll look back at 9.5% UE as the good old days.

IMO, What you’re seeing now is a run on whatever fumes the old economy had but it’ll peter out by October/November. Business owners aren’t stupid and we all know that the Clinton/Bush UE numbers won’t be returning anytime soon.

The perceptions are going to be the real issue. People who are scared won’t spend as much. Businesses who are scared won’t hire. Etc. It can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Jimbo3 on August 6, 2010 at 11:34 AM

No, idiot. REALITY is the real issue. Obama’s economic mayhem is the real issue. HIS vision for an impoverished redistributed America is coming closer to realization. BTW – just what do you think businesses and people are scared about? Hmm? Hint: it ain’t perception, it’s reality.

Jimbo thinks we should ignore the real balance in our checking accounts and just act like we have enough money to spend for everything we want. If we all pretend we won the lottery, and say it enough times, doesn’t that make it true?

Not doing so would make Dear Leader and his ideas look dumb.

The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working. The Recovery is working.

The perceptions are going to be the real issue. People who are scared won’t spend as much. Businesses who are scared won’t hire. Etc. It can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Jimbo3 on August 6, 2010 at 11:34 AM

I don’t want to come across too strongly but this is absolute nonsense. Perceptions come from actual events and when you see you y/o/y and m/o/m numbers come in lower and lower and your cash flow statement get tighter and tighter, that leads to the “perception” that the current business environment that you’re in is swirling the bowl.

Unlike the .gov most businesses have to pay their employees, suppliers, etc. with real money generated from actual transactions. They can’t run on deficits funding by an unlimited (seemingly) stream of Treasury sales. People aren’t hiring because there’s no profit in it plain and simple. Which is why Obama’s policies and burdens will do nothing to improve the situation.

So, are businesses scared? Absolutely and for good reason. Many are literally looking at BK because of O’s nonsense. Hunger has a way of focusing the mind and the focus for most folks now is just to make it until this national nightmare is over-God willing.

Wasn’t that the exact number of jobs INCREASED in May or June that Obamaa touted as proof the recovery was happening and we all had better pass the Financial Reform bill right now?! (and that we attributed to Census employees?)

Skywise on August 6, 2010 at 10:05 AM

What?
What?
What are you saying? Don’t you trust your government?

Do you really think that Obama and his people would lie to us? /s

Seriously these numbers are as much a fantasy as anything else coming out of the Obama White house. Unemployment is at least 25% to 50% higher than reported due to changes made in how those figures are calculated.

What is becoming clear is that the Democrats are ‘fixing’ the numbers to avoid 10%+. Looks to me that they shoveled temp census worker ‘losses’ into the previous month to avoid increasing the overall rate this month. And also remember that Government Motors did not have the seasonal auto worker layoff’s this year. This plowed another 100k+ jobs into the numbers.

Look for next month’s report to be twisted even farther from the truth.

The recovery is still going on. I’ve been focusing on the private sector job growth for a while, not the overall job growth which includes governmental jobs. A few months back, when the census and other governmental jobs showed a big swing, all of you generally were also focused on the private sector numbers, not the total numbers.

Jimbo3 on August 6, 2010 at 11:12 AM

The private job growth is about 3x lower than it was just a few months ago. But please, keep telling yourself everything’s great. The headwinds in the Fall and next year with tax hikes and all the jobkilling legislation going into effect will certainly help things along.

The recovery is still going on. I’ve been focusing on the private sector job growth for a while, not the overall job growth which includes governmental jobs. A few months back, when the census and other governmental jobs showed a big swing, all of you generally were also focused on the private sector numbers, not the total numbers.

Jimbo3 on August 6, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Yeah, you’re pretty clearly off your rocker.

There is no recovery, and we all have been following the entire picture.

It’s hard to argue with your assertion. They are incorrect though. Thanks to Dimwit Dems AND Republicans I’ve been out of work 3 or four times since 2002 for extended periods. No amount of dedicated brick pounding brings results, especially if you’re “highly experienced” or a “senior” person.

The GOP is culpable for not stopping the CRA and for spending like idiots as well.

Now they ignore the job market and age bias whenever they stpe out and make statements like that.