Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!

This means 100,000 at max at retail in its first week, hopefully it has legs starting from the weekend. The original Bravely Default had good legs by JPRG standards, if this is as good as the impressions seemingly state, I can see such a thing happening again.

Member

From what I have read of early user impressions and reviews Bravely Second reuses many assets from Bravely Default (graphics, locales, music, etc). Some have gone as far to say it feels like a DLC pack for the first game. Perhaps if they were more innovative with the sequel it would have sold more at launch.

Regardless, I'm still looking forward to playing it, as I have read a number of very positive impressions, and I do not mind if it feels like an expansion on the first game (because the first game was sublime). I'm naively hopeful that if the game is of exceptional quality its sales will be in accord with that, eventually (even though sadly, that is hardly to be expected in today's market).

Total first week shipment --> 165,183
First day sales 50% of the shipment --> 82,591

The first day represented 58.36% of first week sales, which is actually quite a lower % for a JRPG (as reflected by its legs too!). If such a % happens again, Bravely Second's first week at retail would range between 85,675 and 102,810. Hopefully, it's indeed a 60k first day: a 100k first week, while lower than the predecessor, wouldn't be that lower, and still a decent debut, considering how Square underadvertised / underinvested in the game >_>

From what I have read of early user impressions and reviews Bravely Second reuses many assets from Bravely Default (graphics, locales, music, etc). Some have gone as far to say it feels like a DLC pack for the first game. Perhaps if they were more innovative with the sequel it would have sold more at launch.

Regardless, I'm still looking forward to playing it, as I have read a number of very positive impressions, and I do not mind if it feels like an expansion on the first game (because the first game was sublime). I'm naively hopeful that if the game is of exceptional quality its sales will be in accord with that, eventually (even though sadly, that is hardly to be expected in today's market).

Total first week shipment --> 165,183
First day sales 50% of the shipment --> 82,591

The first day represented 58.36% of first week sales, which is actually quite a lower % for a JRPG (as reflected by its legs too!). If such a % happens again, Bravely Second's first week at retail would range between 85,675 and 102,810. Hopefully, it's indeed a 60k first day: a 100k first week, while lower than the predecessor, wouldn't be that lower, and still a decent debut, considering how Square underadvertised / underinvested in the game >_>

At this point, it must probably be what said by others: the game's development started by Japanese sales alone in September 2013 (Thus, 19 months between that and the release) with a set budget, then Western sales happened...but it was too late to make radical changes to Bravely Second's development path, so, while their overall direction was indeed to get more non-AAA/non-mobile games on the market (Final Fantasy Explorers, Saga 2015 and Star Ocean 5 demostrate this), Bravely Second suffered from being way into development for major changes.

I know people suppose that Square expects more sales by the sequel despite the huge assest recycle, but maybe, since they know about the budget put into it, they have reasonable expectations. The fact that they said "Bravely Third in the case the game sells well enough" makes me a bit more hopeful in that.

Member

Member

I don't see Bravely Default as S-E's "best-selling new IP since Kingdom Hearts", and furthermore, Kingdom Hearts isn't even a new IP. When talking about the value of new IPs, we should always be looking at it in a practical way instead of a technical way. In the same way that KH was successful because because it is basically Disney + FF, it is clear that a lot of the success of BD comes from being a FF game in everything but name. The same job classes, a similar job system, using lots of monster designs from 4WoL, there's really very little original about it in the eyes of consumers.

I guess it says a lot about S-E as a company when it is so hard to really define any of their successes as brand new ideas.

Total first week shipment --> 165,183
First day sales 50% of the shipment --> 82,591

The first day represented 58.36% of first week sales, which is actually quite a lower % for a JRPG (as reflected by its legs too!). If such a % happens again, Bravely Second's first week at retail would range between 85,675 and 102,810. Hopefully, it's indeed a 60k first day: a 100k first week, while lower than the predecessor, wouldn't be that lower, and still a decent debut, considering how Square underadvertised / underinvested in the game >_>

Banned

I don't see Bravely Default as S-E's "best-selling new IP since Kingdom Hearts", and furthermore, Kingdom Hearts isn't even a new IP. When talking about the value of new IPs, we should always be looking at it in a practical way instead of a technical way. In the same way that KH was successful because because it is basically Disney + FF, it is clear that a lot of the success of BD comes from being a FF game in everything but name. The same job classes, a similar job system, using lots of monster designs from 4WoL, there's really very little original about it in the eyes of consumers.

I guess it says a lot about S-E as a company when it is so hard to really define any of their successes as brand new ideas.

Banned

I don't see Bravely Default as S-E's "best-selling new IP since Kingdom Hearts", and furthermore, Kingdom Hearts isn't even a new IP. When talking about the value of new IPs, we should always be looking at it in a practical way instead of a technical way. In the same way that KH was successful because because it is basically Disney + FF, it is clear that a lot of the success of BD comes from being a FF game in everything but name. The same job classes, a similar job system, using lots of monster designs from 4WoL, there's really very little original about it in the eyes of consumers.

I guess it says a lot about S-E as a company when it is so hard to really define any of their successes as brand new ideas.

In some previous debate, I did say that KH was not really a new IP or, at least, a very special one. On the other hand, it is true that BD resembles a lot FF, but as you also noticed, it did not have any sizeable marketing push and was basically launched without any effort. Also, I hardly believe many consumers remember 4WOL, in particular in Western markets anyway, I guess it is fair enough to judge BD a new IP, otherwise nothing is (other than indie games...?) because you can always trace back some characteristic that consumers see and view in a specific manner; e.g. TWEWY is not really a new IP because Nomura.

Member

Bravely Default is a turn based RPG from the publisher of Final Fantasy that deliberately plays up the nostalgia of older Final Fantasy games, using a job system originating from Final Fantasy 3 and 5, with pre-rendered backgrounds to invoke the feeling of PS1-era Final Fantasy games, and features spells, monsters, and abilities from the Final Fantasy series.

First, it was not really a serious comment. I was just talking about how SE operates as they usually dump such series on Smartphones in case they don't sell well (TWEWY).

Second, I don't think there is a reason to blame the advertising here for poor sales. There are a lot more factors other than advertising that could have caused these lower sales. I mean even FF: Explorers fared better despite having the same advertising.

Banned

Bravely Default is a turn based RPG from the publisher of Final Fantasy that deliberately plays up the nostalgia of older Final Fantasy games, using a job system originating from Final Fantasy 3 and 5, with pre-rendered backgrounds to invoke the feeling of PS1-era Final Fantasy games, and features spells, monsters, and abilities from the Final Fantasy series.

That does not cancel the fact that it is a new IP. As those elements really matter at this point... The 4 Heroes of Light was also playing up the nostalgia of older Final Fantasy games (and it had the Final Fantasy name attached on it) and barely cracked 200k (on DS). To be honest, being reminiscenet of Final Fantasy might also poison the game itself (that is probably why SQEX decided to do a new IP).

Member

4WoL failing doesn't mean anything. My point was that "new IP" is a meaningless point in cases where we're only arguing a technical definition. True meaningful value in discussions about new IPs in the entertainment business is when something new finds success and a company is able to build on that further, often finding a new audience.

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!

I know Malik wasn't serious, since he just explained himself, but just fyi: The Bravely franchise already has a mobile effort, Bravely Archive, which performed decently enough on Google Play especially (500,000 to 1,000,000 downloads, being in top 30 Revenue for many days). Probably not a big result, but it probably went as expected...which is more that can be said for Final Fantasy Legend.

Banned

First, it was not really a serious comment. I was just talking about how SE operates as they usually dump such series on Smartphones in case they don't sell well (TWEWY).

Second, I don't think there is a reason to blame the advertising here for poor sales. There are a lot more factors other than advertising that could have caused these lower sales. I mean even FF: Explorers fared better despite having the same advertising.

Again, it wasn't a serious comment. I was just mocking the nature of SE development.

Banned

4WoL failing doesn't mean anything. My point was that "new IP" is a meaningless point in cases where we're only arguing a technical definition. True meaningful value in discussions about new IPs in the entertainment business is when something new finds success and a company is able to build on that further, often finding a new audience.

SQEX could have been able to build on BD's success further, so I do think talking about new IP is meaningful. The fact the 4WoL failed is relevant, since it shows that people do not automatically buy something because of FF nostalgia.

Member

Bravely Default is as much of a new IP as Bloodborne. "Classic FF" is why most people bought it, until few weeks before the western release, I actually thought BD:FF stand for Bravely Default: Final Fantasy. >__>

Banned

That really says more about SE's efforts in creating "new IP's" than anything else.....and you know what I don't blame them. Seeing how in the SE PS4 thread the most requested stuff was FF12 Hd, DQ8 HD, Dissidia etc.....SE has a shit ton of beloved IP's and people would love for them to come back. Looking at it from SE's view, what is the point of crating a new IP, when your Ip catalogue is already so varied, fans want to see the old Ip's back and its surely less of a risk.

Bravely Default is as much of a new IP as Bloodborne. "Classic FF" is why most people bought it, until few weeks before the western release, I actually thought BD:FF stand for Bravely Default: Final Fantasy. >__>

Member

Okay, now given those numbers perhaps someone can elaborate on why it's even relevant to a discussion on Bravely Default's sales potential and franchise potential and S-E's decision making, given their current strategic goals and objectives, while apparently something like The World Ends With You is incomparable.

Banned

Perhaps I should clarify myself better because it seems I cannot write a light comment without having hordes of comments cherry-picking and dissecting each word (which is of course my fault, not being mother-tongue, and therefore not able to express myself as clear as possible).

I just wanted to say that SQEX found a successful new IP* (in the name... Resembling FF, we all know that, which in fact is not even an added value given how poisoning last FF titles were - FF nostalgia didn't work a lot of times in recent times so perhaps BD has its own merits somehow?) after many years of not having many new successful IPs (being them resembling other games... or not; or a bit; or a lot). And instead of investing in it a bit more than usual (BD was a low-effort compared to many other games SQEX recently put out), they didn't promote it adequately and apparently weren't able to differentiate the game enough with respect to the prequel.

"since Kingdom Hearts" was meaning that all new SQEX's IPs since then (and the novelty of KH as an IP is debatable, I think it's quite clear at this point: Disney + FF) weren't really successful. TWEWY was a new IP (yes, it was), but didn't crack 200k in Japan and of course didn't get a fourth of BD's sales in Western market. Perhaps there are other successful new IPs in SQEX's carnet, but I don't remember. Maybe someone could help?

*both in Japan and Western market. In Japan, BD sold around 300k (with shortages during launch period) + 85k of For The Sequel (which wasn't really an expansion but more a refined version - International version).

Banned

I mean, its effectively saying that we don't know and don't have a good way to judge. We could look back to last year and see how other titles lifted the baseline. HyWa gave something of a ramped up bump of 4k->5k from Week 31->32->33 but this was also shortly after MK8 had launched and was keeping the baseline at 9k~ish:

Could we apply similar scaling to XCX, or would you think it will sell better or, possibly, worse? Have a lower or greater affect? We have another point of consideration in that XCX has a bundle, that could serve to help move a bit more hardware than HyWa did as that had no bundle. But let's say it behaves similarly, then taking the current 6k baseline, I'd say that XCX would bump the WiiU to 15k on the week of its release and then peter off soon after.

Perhaps, we could think that with XCX + DQX expansion + #FE not too far off on the horizon, we could see more JRPG fans pick up the console than with HyWa which would have appealed to either the Zelda demo (limited outside of NA) or to Musou fans but is and seems to be just about the only Musou game for the system. No matter how good it may be as a Musou, it being the only one is going to shoot the kneecaps off of a fan's interest in the console.

this is a very good answer with a nice analysis.
I also think there will be a good bump, the problem is how long it will affected sales, as you pointed out
Likely a rpg fanbase is more solid than the Musou one, but the lack of similar games coming to the platform could be lead to a 360 situation with Vesperia

another unusual thing is how Nintendo is promoting XCX ?
I mean, i'm coming back home from work, on Chuousen I just saw a CV for Xenoblade 3DS... now I catch the Yamanote (hope to see a CM before Ikebukuro...)
anyway, the bundle surely will help, GW surely will help but I expect a situation as you described

Banned

Perhaps I should clarify myself better because it seems I cannot write a light comment without having hordes of comments cherry-picking and dissecting each word (which is of course my fault, not being mother-tongue, and therefore not able to express myself as clear as possible).

I just wanted to say that SQEX found a successful new IP* (in the name... Resembling FF, we all know that, which in fact is not even an added value given how poisoning last FF titles were - FF nostalgia didn't work a lot of times in recent times so perhaps BD has its own merits somehow?) after many years of not having many new successful IPs (being them resembling other games... or not; or a bit; or a lot). And instead of investing in it a bit more than usual (BD was a low-effort compared to many other games SQEX recently put out), they didn't promote it adequately and apparently weren't able to differentiate the game enough with respect to the prequel.

"since Kingdom Hearts" was meaning that all new SQEX's IPs since then (and the novelty of KH as an IP is debatable, I think it's quite clear at this point: Disney + FF) weren't really successful. TWEWY was a new IP (yes, it was), but didn't crack 200k in Japan and of course didn't get a fourth of BD's sales in Western market. Perhaps there are other successful new IPs in SQEX's carnet, but I don't remember. Maybe someone could help?

*both in Japan and Western market. In Japan, BD sold around 300k (with shortages during launch period) + 85k of For The Sequel (which wasn't really an expansion but more a refined version - International version).

Honestly can't remember these new IP's, and they were likely low efforts anyway. Also iirc wasn't there some bad reactions to BD due to it apparently repeating itself at a point in the game......my memory is hazy (god damn exam crunch time) but I remember lots of people saying they stopped at a certain chapter or something like that.