Tasmania recorded its worst net interstate migration loss in 12 years for the financial year 2011/12, losing 2,552 persons over the 12 month period, compared with 47 the year before and gaining 322 the year before that (2009/10).

From a net migration perspective, Tasmania has historically always experienced a net loss in the younger ages of 15 to 29, seeking education, employment or life experience opportunities. Historically, the state has always experienced a net gain in the older ages of 45 to 75 and over, contributing to the rate of ageing. However, for the year 2011/12 the state experienced losses in all age groups from 0 to 54 and also, for the third time, a loss in the 75 years and over age group. This is evident in the below diagram illustrating Net Interstate Migration for Tasmania by age group from 1996/97 until 2011/12.

It is easy to assume that this significant loss is the result of high levels of Tasmanians leaving the state in search of opportunities elsewhere. However, this is not the case. Net migration movements are the difference between arrivals to the state and departures from the state. The cause of the recent net migration loss is actually a greater decline in the number of arrivals to the state, rather than a significant increase in numbers leaving the state. Furthermore, while there has been slight increases in the numbers departing for each age group for the past three years, since data collection began in 1996/97 the numbers have been trending downwards for all age groups apart from those 55 to 75 and over (which are comparatively small in number). However, arrivals to the state have also been trending downwards over this time, again apart from those 55 to 75 and over (which are also comparatively small in number). This means that there have not been enough arrivals to the state to replace the ones who are leaving. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, Tasmania experienced its greatest net migration gains from 2002/03 to 2005/06 when arrivals peaked for all age groups and departures were at their lowest, coinciding with the relative economic prosperity the state and nation were experiencing.

Importantly however, 10,182 people arrived in Tasmania during 2011/12 (compared with a departures of 12,738). Of these arrivals, the largest group was those aged 25 to 29 (1,156 people or over 10 per cent of the total arrivals), closely followed by those aged 30 to 34 (938 people). While more people did leave the state in these age group than arrive, it is indicative that young, prime working age people still move to Tasmania, and more do so than in any other age group.

The challenge for Tasmania is to reverse the recent slight increase in the numbers departing the state and maintain arrivals in order to return the state to positive interstate migration movements.