We predicted San Diego would be the sixth seed way back in October, and we continued to stick with it, even after the Bolts dropped to 5-7. That was the result more of our stubbornness than football IQ, but whatever.

1. Haven't we been here before? The Bengals and Chargers will meet for the second time in 35 days. This time around, San Diego will be the team making the cross-country trip. In the teams' Dec. 1 meeting, the Bengals staved off the rallying Chargers by returning to the best run-pass balance they had in weeks. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown in the 17-10 win, and rookie Giovani Bernard added 57 rushing yards. As the pair led a 164-yard rushing attack, quarterback Andy Dalton threw for 190 yards. This also marks the first playoff game between the teams since 1981, when the Bengals hosted the Chargers at old Riverfront Stadium in the second-coldest NFL game ever played. In what was nicknamed the "Freezer Bowl," temperatures that day dipped to minus-9 and the wind chill was minus-59. Temperatures are expected to hover around 40 degrees next week.

2. Rivers can wing it: Cincinnati will brace for Philip Rivers' powerful right arm. He entered this weekend's games with the league's third-highest QBR and ranked in the top 10 for passing yards. A true pocket quarterback, his prolific passing stats are a credit to his playmaking receivers, including rookie Keenan Allen and tight end Antonio Gates. The key to solving Rivers is pressure. In the first meeting, the Bengals sacked him twice. They've been doing a solid job of getting after other quarterbacks of late, too. Against Joe Flacco on Sunday, Cincinnati had a pair of sacks and three interceptions.

3. Ground-and-pound Part 2? The key to the Bengals' success in the first meeting was their dedication to the ground game. Since then, the Bengals have rushed for more than 150 yards just one other time -- the next week against Indianapolis. It was after the Chargers win that offensive tackle Anthony Collins mentioned how the offensive line set a goal each week of helping open enough holes so the ball carriers can reach the 150-yard milestone. Among the reasons for Cincinnati's success in that game was the movement ofAndrew Whitworth from left tackle to left guard. He replaced Clint Boling, who went down with an ACL tear. With Whitworth moved, Collins came off the bench and took his old tackle spot. That same line rotation has been used since, but it underwent serious tweaks Sunday, when multiple Bengals came in and out with injuries.

ESPN seems to feel both teams will have to run it, and point to the way the Bengals D handled Flaco as what we should expect...

3. Is Andy Dalton good enough to lead the Bengals to a deep playoff run? No quarterback in this year's AFC playoffs has more to prove than Dalton, and it says here that he'll be up to the task. He's enjoyed his best season as a pro -- setting career-highs in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns and passer rating -- and he's playing with the best supporting cast of his three-year career. The Bengals have a big-play running back in rookie Giovani Bernard. They have one of the game's best wide receivers in A.J. Green and a defense that is better than anybody else's in this year's AFC playoff race. All Dalton has to do is keep playing as he did before throwing four interceptions in Cincinnati's 34-17 season-ending win over Baltimore. Before that clunker of a performance, Dalton had thrown 10 touchdown passes and only one interception in his four previous games. Look, he'll never be confused withAndrew Luck. But he does understand his strengths and helped this team reach the playoffs in his first two seasons. This is the year when the Bengals go far beyond the first round.

6. Can the Chargers do any damage? The Chargers would've been a sexy pick to go from unheralded wild-card team to scary postseason contender before their 27-24 overtime win over Kansas City. That's not going to happen after their play in that contest. San Diego was fortunate that Chiefs kicker Ryan Succop missed a potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation, because they deserved to lose. The Chiefs didn't even dress their best players, yet San Diego needed an extra period to get that victory. That wasn't a good look for a team trying to build momentum for the postseason. Granted, the Chargers do have plenty to like: Rivers returned to Pro Bowl form this year and they have won five of their past six games (including a huge win at Denver on Dec. 12). But let's also not forget that San Diego was 4-6 at one point for a reason. The Chargers are as inconsistent as they come, and they're about to go on the road and face the Bengals. Cincinnati has enough defense to send the Chargers home early.

No matter how you stack it this is going to be a tough game. The Bengals were the only team to beat the Chargers in December when they beat the Charges 17-10 in San Diego.

The Bengals are unbeaten at home and in 4 their last 5 home games have scored over 40 points a game. That is against the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Browns. So it could be argued that it was not the top level competition in those games, however they did beat the Patriots, Steelers and Packers at home.

SD is the 5th ranked offense, while Cinci is the 10th.
SD is 4th in passing, while Cinci is 8th.
SD is 13th in rushing while Cinci is 18th.

Defensively, it is Cinci's ball game.
Cinci is 3rd in overall defense, SD is 23rd.
Cinci is 5th is passing D, SD is 29th.
Cinci is 5th in rushing D, SD is 12th.

The weather will be a factor. temperatures in the 30-40's, with precipitation, either rain or snow. This helps the offenses, as they know where the play is going. Further, when the Bengals met the Chargers on December 1st, the Chargers Offensive Line was very different. Dunlap was still out, Troutman and Rinehart were the guards and Fluker has a bad game. The Bengals have a very good D line, but with weather conditions, it might assist the OL over the DL.

All in all the D has to be able to stop Dalton and Green. If Dalton gives up four interceptions to the Chargers the way he did to the Ravens, Rivers and crew are good enough to make them regret it. That said, unless the Chargers play a near flawless game, they will have a very short run in the playoffs.

Offense: Trust Rivers to guide us. I don't want to see McCoy pucker under the pressure of a playoff atmosphere and play it super safe (MartyBall), until we are trailing in the 4th and we're forced to put it in the air.

Defense: Blitz alllll day, force Dalton into making mistakes. In two career playoff games Dalton has 0 TDs and 4 INTs.

I think they need to take advantage of a suddenly undermanned defensive interior and run often between the tackles. Dunlap and Fluker could both have huge days down blocking. Double the crap out of Thomas and Peko, and pound the second level into honesty and submission.

In the passing game, avoid risky throws deep and outside the numbers unless they are wide open. Take advantage of poor LB/SS play in coverage with Woodhead, Gates, and Green.

Dial up some screens for the running backs and/or Royal to slow down the outside pass rushers.

Defense:

Pray that our front seven shows up in run defense.

Keep everything in front and force the Bengals to move downfield in smaller chunks and long drives. Dalton can be wildly inaccurate, so the more opportunities you give him to make a mistake, the better.

On passing downs, alternate Liuget, Reyes, and Thomas over the center to take advantage of their weakest pass protector with fresh bodies. Some A-Gap blitzing wouldn't go amiss either. We won't have to commit Butler or Te'o too strongly in coverage with their top tight ends all out (I think).

We need to take care of the ball. Bottom line. Its playoff football, we're the only team in the playoffs with a negative turnover ratio (-4). Just can't happen if we expect to get to Denver.

And on defense we need turnovers. You have to respect the run when it comes to Cincy, but I see Pagano drawing up similar schemes to what he did in Denver. 6 DB's..

Stuckey & Addae play Cover 2, Gilchrist is the NCB (Nickel). Because Stuckey and Addae are playing Cover 2, your asking less of Marshall and Wright. But expect Cincy to change it up, they have so many different packages.
Weddle as your Sam, Butler as your Mike, and Johnson or Ingram as your Will.
Hopefully Lissemore/Thomas, Liuget and Reyes get a push up front.

We need to take care of the ball. Bottom line. Its playoff football, we're the only team in the playoffs with a negative turnover ratio (-4). Just can't happen if we expect to get to Denver.

And on defense we need turnovers. You have to respect the run when it comes to Cincy, but I see Pagano drawing up similar schemes to what he did in Denver. 6 DB's..

Stuckey & Addae play Cover 2, Gilchrist is the NCB (Nickel). Because Stuckey and Addae are playing Cover 2, your asking less of Marshall and Wright. But expect Cincy to change it up, they have so many different packages.
Weddle as your Sam, Butler as your Mike, and Johnson or Ingram as your Will.
Hopefully Lissemore/Thomas, Liuget and Reyes get a push up front.

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I don't disagree with you about taking care of the ball, but our negative turnover differential is a function of our defense not taking the ball away rather than our offense giving it up. We're 10th best in the NFL at taking care of the ball (and per pass we're actually better than that as several of the 9 ahead of us attempt significantly fewer passes). Meanwhile, we're 30th in takeaways. Better only than the Jets and Texans. Like you said, we need turnovers. Thankfully Dalton is often obliging that way.

We need to take care of the ball. Bottom line. Its playoff football, we're the only team in the playoffs with a negative turnover ratio (-4). Just can't happen if we expect to get to Denver.

And on defense we need turnovers. You have to respect the run when it comes to Cincy, but I see Pagano drawing up similar schemes to what he did in Denver. 6 DB's..

Stuckey & Addae play Cover 2, Gilchrist is the NCB (Nickel). Because Stuckey and Addae are playing Cover 2, your asking less of Marshall and Wright. But expect Cincy to change it up, they have so many different packages.
Weddle as your Sam, Butler as your Mike, and Johnson or Ingram as your Will.
Hopefully Lissemore/Thomas, Liuget and Reyes get a push up front.

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Obviously no one is ever going to say "No, we don't need to take care of the ball" but I do think that the"we're the only team in the playoffs with a negative turnover ratio (-4)" stat is misleading, here.
The Chargers' "giveaways" (-21) is pretty average, re. the playoff teams.

So the negative turnover ratio is really predicated on a defense that just does not take away the ball(17 takeaways compared to, say, 36 for the Chiefs).

The Chargers need the offense to just be it's normal self(unlike the freakish season low of 10 points v. Bengals Dec. 1),
and the D to play, well, just average defense (which, for us, would be an achievement).

Again, obviously we (always!) need to take care of the ball, which we uncharacteristically didn't Dec. 1st…
but I really don't see the Chargers held to 10 again (and holding the Bengals to 17 again would probably = Charger win)

[Edit: Of course, as I slowly typed out this overly-long response, Jesse said basically the same thing a minute earlier]

All we need to do is stop the run, like seriously. All they did was run it down our throat last time. I can't stand it when we get blasted back 3 yards off the ball and all the RB does is fall forward for 5. Where's Jamal Williams for christ sake lol

San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Offense: Trust Rivers to guide us. I don't want to see McCoy pucker under the pressure of a playoff atmosphere and play it super safe (MartyBall), until we are trailing in the 4th and we're forced to put it in the air.

Defense: Blitz alllll day, force Dalton into making mistakes. In two career playoff games Dalton has 0 TDs and 4 INTs.

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The only problem I have with that plan is that THIS defense isn't the defense to do that. This defense didn't generate one sack in the last meeting. Not even pressured. Dalton didn't even get hit once. Rivers got sacked twice and hit 5 times.

In our past 6 games we have at least 1 sack and at least 2 hits on the quarterback in every game BUT the Bengals loss.

We just have to have less turnovers than last game. Those nonchalant turnovers can not happen again. That's the only thing that gave them then win.

You would think Antonio Gates was saying "Hold my beer. Watch this" before every reception.

I didn't follow any cinci games since last week and the one against us but they threw on 1st and goal from the one near the end of a game they were winning. Maybe Chargers win from having the least dumb coach?

I didn't follow any cinci games since last week and the one against us but they threw on 1st and goal from the one near the end of a game they were winning. Maybe Chargers win from having the least dumb coach?

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Amen. As I was watching the game, and Lewis' astoundingly bad clock management, I began to type
a post about how--if the Bengals lose--Lewis will, and should, be crucified. Just as I was about done(I have no typing skills: 6.3 wpm, I think) and ready to hit "Post Reply" the Bengals intercepted and effectively
put the game on ice…meaning there wouldn't be any serious questioning of the abysmal coaching job...

San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

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With all that being said I'm going ALL IN and taking Bolts on the moneyline (+225 at sportsbook.ag)

Team overall:
Bengals are a very physical and aggressive team. We need to match that from the get go. Sucker punch their team captain during the coin toss.

Offense:
* Play within yourselves. Trust that the playcalls and scheme will work over the course of the game
* No TOs. Not one. Zero. Nada. Zilch.
* WRs catch the frickin' ball, especially on the handful of deeper passes designed to stretch the deef a bit. Those cruicial drops in the KC game enabled their safeties at times to play shallow and bottle up our passing/running game
* Whiz come up with a few things we haven't shown before (not gadget plays, but different wrinkles to keep their deef off balance).

Defense: Exactly what Jesse Kemp wrote:

Pray that our front seven shows up in run defense.

Keep everything in front and force the Bengals to move downfield in smaller chunks and long drives. Dalton can be wildly inaccurate, so the more opportunities you give him to make a mistake, the better.

On passing downs, alternate Liuget, Reyes, and Thomas over the center to take advantage of their weakest pass protector with fresh bodies. Some A-Gap blitzing wouldn't go amiss either. We won't have to commit Butler or Te'o too strongly in coverage with their top tight ends all out (I think).

You know before the season started one of our fullest positions was DT. Remember when Ray and Loren were discussing the two huge DT's we had coming into training camp. There was one Nigerian Body Builder with super human strength and the other was the big mutant called Kwame Geathers. We have consistently seen Cam Thomas get the business by guards and centers all year. I wonder why the hell we havent tried at least Geathers. Can't be too hard to tell him on every play to push the **** out of the center and either left guard or right guard. I'm just wondering..

I don't disagree with you about taking care of the ball, but our negative turnover differential is a function of our defense not taking the ball away rather than our offense giving it up. We're 10th best in the NFL at taking care of the ball (and per pass we're actually better than that as several of the 9 ahead of us attempt significantly fewer passes). Meanwhile, we're 30th in takeaways. Better only than the Jets and Texans. Like you said, we need turnovers. Thankfully Dalton is often obliging that way.

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Defense just hasn't gotten us the turnovers. They've gotten us off the field at times, but not as many as turnovers this year as we hoped there would be. Weddle got his first INT of the season in Week 13.

But last time we played Cincy we uncharateristically turned the ball over 3 times, and twice in the end zone, which at a minimum lead to 6 points, and that game is a different story. We just shot ourselves in the foot too many times.

The closer we keep it, the better off we are. I trust Rivers 100x more in a close game this year than I would trust Dalton.

You know before the season started one of our fullest positions was DT. Remember when Ray and Loren were discussing the two huge DT's we had coming into training camp. There was one Nigerian Body Builder with super human strength and the other was the big mutant called Kwame Geathers. We have consistently seen Cam Thomas get the business by guards and centers all year. I wonder why the hell we havent tried at least Geathers. Can't be too hard to tell him on every play to push the **** out of the center and either left guard or right guard. I'm just wondering..

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Geathers is too tall to play the 0 or shade in our base set, his pad level has to be perfect or he loses leverage and gets washed. It happened to him quite a bit at Georgia. He's huge and athletic, so occasionally when he plays disciplined he flashes some dangerous up-field burst, but I don't think that he's ever going to be more than a role player unless they move him out to DE.

The difference in the last game against Cincy was that we turned the ball over and we let them run all over us. If we contain their running game and protect the ball, we should be in a good position to win it.

One thing people seem to be overlooking is how much healthier we are than we were a month ago. Our o-line had alot of guys banged up. I expect Ingram, who did not play in the last game, can also make a difference by playing physical at the point of attack and setting the edge on running plays.

Last week, the Chiefs played fast and loose because they had nothing to lose. This week, all the pressure is on the Bengals.

The Bengals are missing some guys on D I think. Key is simply to keep playing our game on O. Get 2/3 of the possession time, mix up run and pass. Obviously have to get rid of the ball quickly against the Cincy D.

On the D side, AJ Green is going to be a big concern. Like others have said, get pressure on Dalton and stop run. Basics. Our front 7 vs their OL is going to be a key matchup.

The only problem I have with that plan is that THIS defense isn't the defense to do that. This defense didn't generate one sack in the last meeting. Not even pressured. Dalton didn't even get hit once. Rivers got sacked twice and hit 5 times.

In our past 6 games we have at least 1 sack and at least 2 hits on the quarterback in every game BUT the Bengals loss.

We just have to have less turnovers than last game. Those nonchalant turnovers can not happen again. That's the only thing that gave them then win.

You would think Antonio Gates was saying "Hold my beer. Watch this" before every reception.

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I'm still not convinced that Gates' fumble in the first quarter was actually a fumble. He appeared to be down. As for the other turnover, that was less Gates being nonchalant and more the defender making a great play. That happens sometimes. But I would not bank on that defender making a play like that again. That being said, the Chargers need to protect the ball like its a newborn infant.

The difference in Bolts pass rush could be Ingram. He's been pressuring QBs hard the last couple weeks and if he can pester Dalton, that could be huge. Dalton has got to be feeling the pressure since his performances in the playoffs have been so mediocre.

So I'm reading all this crap about how the Bengals are getting motivated by our post-game locker room talk from Mike McCoy and apparently somebody yelling "Who Dey" in the background once.

If that's what motivates you, prepare to have your pride crushed because this Chargers team is working the underdog card better than you've ever seen.

Marv the Prison guard Lewis is telling his players that the Bolts are pointing at them and want revenge.

Well DUHHHHHHHHHHHH

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This is probably the weakest sauce I've seen in my decades of fandom:
First, I'm with John Madden re. the average fan overestimating the role of "bulletin board material."

But this isn't even remotely incendiary: It's a less than 3 minute video[if you're really bored:] http://www.chargers.com/news/articl...Playoffs/3fdf7f63-76d9-4088-9c88-ff6459d19388
the first 90% of which has nothing to do with the Bengals, and at the end (if you must waste time on this, you can safely
skip to the last 10 seconds for the remarks in question) an acknowledgment that they'll be playing the Bengals,
a team they lost to 4 weeks ago.

Marvin "I Don't Know How To Manage a Game Clock" Lewis said:"Listening to them in the locker room after they won the last game ... they're pointing to us."
Uh, yes. You're their next game. You think they should be "pointing" to the Vikings?!?"They feel like they owe us."
Uh, "paying back" a team that recently defeated you is perhaps the most pedestrian of assertions in sports.
If that's what passes for bulletin board material in this age,
the only thing remarkable about it is how weak it is.

This is probably the weakest sauce I've seen in my decades of fandom:
First, I'm with John Madden re. the average fan overestimating the role of "bulletin board material."

But this isn't even remotely incendiary: It's a less than 3 minute video[if you're really bored:] http://www.chargers.com/news/articl...Playoffs/3fdf7f63-76d9-4088-9c88-ff6459d19388
the first 90% of which has nothing to do with the Bengals, and at the end (if you must waste time on this, you can safely
skip to the last 10 seconds for the remarks in question) an acknowledgment that they'll be playing the Bengals,
a team they lost to 4 weeks ago.

Marvin "I Don't Know How To Manage a Game Clock" Lewis said:"Listening to them in the locker room after they won the last game ... they're pointing to us."
Uh, yes. You're their next game. You think they should be "pointing" to the Vikings?!?"They feel like they owe us."
Uh, "paying back" a team that recently defeated you is perhaps the most pedestrian of assertions in sports.
If that's what passes for bulletin board material in this age,
the only thing remarkable about it is how weak it is.

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Marvin Lewis, master motivator. Any team searching that hard for BB material is scared of choking, which is exactly what Lewis' teams have done in the playoffs.

Of course, the greatest bulletin board material of all time was Broadway Joe guaranteeing a victory in SB III. Pretty sure that worked out OK.