Pro Farmer Tech Talk

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 7

Feb 07, 2013

Thursday, February 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks were supported by a
stronger-than-expected 0.3% rise in German industrial output
in December. The Bank of England kept its monetary policy
unchanged following its latest meeting, as expected. The
market place is now awaiting news from the European Central
Bank’s monthly meeting, including a press conference by ECB
chief Mario Draghi. The ECB is also expected to leave its
interest rates unchanged, but Draghi may tip his hand on
monetary policy changes at his press briefing. On Friday
China will issue a fresh batch of economic data, including
inflation and trade balance reports. The market place will
closely scrutinize the ECB meeting results and the data
coming out of China. Next week, China will be on holiday for
the Lunar New Year. U.S. economic data due for release
Thursday includes weekly jobless claims, preliminary
productivity and costs, chain store sales data, and consumer
credit.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading
today and poked to another five-year high overnight. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,520.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and
then at this week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent
choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,750.00 and then at the January high of 2,764.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,725.00 and then at this
week’s low of 2,709.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,900 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 13,860. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143
22/32 and then at this week’s high of 143 28/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 143 even and then at Wednesday’s
low of 142 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and
hovering not far above the recent 4.5-month low. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 131.22.0 and then at
131.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.07.5 and then at
131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Greenback
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 79.93 and then at 80.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at 79.49 and then at 79.40.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$97.50 and then at this week’s high of $97.76. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$96.44 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight. Bulls are fading as the
seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be at hand for the
grain markets. Grain traders are awaiting Friday morning’s
USDA monthly supply and demand report for better direction.