The Iranian nuclear talks just went into double overtime — and they're now set to miss a key deadline for Obama

President Barack Obama
pauses while speaking after receiving an update from military
leaders on the campaign against the Islamic State, during a rare
visit to the Pentagon.AP

Negotiators in Geneva are set to blow
past another deadline in the ongoing discussions
surrounding Iran's nuclear program.

And the new deadline could mean more trouble on the domestic
front for President Barack Obama.

Iran and the so-called P5+1 — the US, China, France,
Russia, the United Kingdom, and Germany — have now given
themselves until July 10 — three more days — to work out a final
deal.

"We're frankly more concerned about the quality of the deal
than we are about the clock," State Department spokeswoman Marie
Harf said in a statement. "Though we also know that difficult
decisions won't get any easier with time — that is why we are
continuing to negotiate."

The new deadline of July 10 is significant, at least for
Obama and his team of negotiators, because the real deadline in
the final round of talks has been July 9.

That's the day they need to have a deal in order for it to
move swiftly through Congress.

Under a compromise bill supported by bipartisan majorities
in Congress that Obama signed into law, a 60-day congressional
review period on the final deal was cut in half to 30
days.

But that review period will snap back to 60 days if Obama
submits the agreement to Congress later than July 9.

Bloomberg's Josh Rogin recently reported
that Colin Kahl, Vice President Joe Biden's national
security adviser, told an audience at a conference in Washington
last month that the administration was operating as if the
deadline is July 9.

That stance has raised the alarm of some critics of the
negotiations.

"The fact that the Obama administration is so loathe to give
Congress an extra 30 days to review what will be the most
consequential national security agreement of the post-Cold War
era is remarkable," Mark Dubowitz,
executive director of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense
of Democracies, told Business Insider.

"It tells you everything you need to know about how concerned the
administration is to have a serious debate on the actual deal and
its consequences."

Iran's President Hassan
Rouhani replies to a question during a news conference on the
sidelines of the 69th United Nations General Assembly at United
Nations Headquarters in New York September 26,
2014.REUTERS/Adrees
Latif

Reaching a deal by July 9 would mean Congress would have to vote
to approve or disapprove the deal before it leaves Washington for
its August recess. If the administration
can't submit the deal until later in July, it would provide
Congress some leeway — likely until September, after its
month-long summer break.

The lengthy
debate could mean louder opposition when members of Congress
return home to their districts in August, with the potential to
sway public opinion and, in the end, votes over a final
deal.

There's also a
concern that Iran could use the deadline — which is far more
important to the US than Iran — as leverage to extract further
concessions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted Tuesday that there might be a push for
the United Nations to completely lift its arms embargo on
Iran.

"There
is only one big problem in terms of
sanctions," Lavrov told reporters. "It is the
problem of a weapons embargo."

The run-up to a potential deal has run into opposition
from everyone from Republican members of Congress to former
members of the Obama administration, who wrote a letter to the
president outlining their concerns last week. In a press
conference last week, Obama said he wouldn't hesitate to walk
away from "a bad deal" if Iran's leaders stick to some of their recent bluster.

"There has been a lot of talk on the other side from the
Iranian negotiators about whether, in fact, they can abide by
some of the terms that came up in Lausanne," Obama said.

"If they cannot, that’s going to be a problem — because
I’ve said from the start I will walk away from the negotiations
if, in fact, it’s a bad deal. If we can’t provide assurances that the
pathways for Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon are closed, and if
we can’t verify that, if the inspections regime — the
verification regime is inadequate, then we’re not going to get a
deal. And we’ve been very clear to the Iranian government about
that."

U.S. President Barack
Obama and Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff (not pictured) hold a
joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in
Washington June 30, 2015.REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The Iran negotiations will prove to be a defining part of Obama's
foreign policy legacy, geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the
president of Eurasia Group, recently told Business Insider. The
deal has the potential to both radically reshape Iran's role in
the Middle East and its relationship with the West, including the
US. Potential cooperation with Iran looms on issues like fighting
the Islamic State, but closer ties with Iran would also lead to
complications with key US allies.

If a deal with Iran is ultimately struck, it'll be a big part of
Obama's legacy — but one Bremmer said has become tough for the
president to sell as positive. And it will only become more of a
lightning-rod issue in Congress if negotiators miss the July 9
deadline.

It "will be extremely controversial in Congress and among key US
allies in the region (Saudi Arabia and Israel have good reason to
hate it). So I think it will be challenging for Obama to sell
that as effectively as positive for his legacy," Bremmer said.