I imagine if you polled a thousand people who were among the most qualified to have an opinion about today's nonfarm payrolls forecast, you'd have been lucky to encounter a single person who would be willing to predict a number over 300k. I'm not saying that those people couldn't fathom such a thing–simply that there was an overwhelming agreement about the fact that this jobs report would be smaller than the last one. But then today happened! In some ways, you could argue last month's report was better, but it doesn't much matter. All we needed to see was the headline of 304k to know there would be trouble. In the bond market's defense, there wasn't much trouble until the 10am econ data got involved (ISM manufacturing found a floor and bounced, Consumer Sentiment…(read more)