Timothy Spangler: Africa now front line in terror war

The shopping mall massacre in Kenya last weekend demonstrates that the “war on terror” is still being waged, and that the front lines now cut across the African continent. The four-day siege of the Westgate mall in Nairobi, which left more than 60 people dead and gripped the world, raises difficult questions about the links between Islamic militants in Africa and their supporters in the West.

As many as 16 gunmen are believed to have been involved in the well-coordinated attack. When President Uhuru Kenyatta finally declared the siege over on Tuesday, five attackers were dead, with 11 in custody. Six members of the Kenyan army are believed to have died in retaking the mall.

Notably, American and British citizens are reported as being involved in the attack. Perhaps most interesting were rumors that Samantha Lewthwaite, a British woman known as the “White Widow,” may have been involved in the planning and execution of the attack. Lewthwaite, widow of Germaine Lindsay, one of the July 7, 2005, bombers in London, is known to be in the region. An investigation was underway to determine if Lewthwaite entered Kenya using a South African passport under the alias “Natalie Faye.” MI5 also was working with Kenyan officials generally to determine the extent of any British involvement.

Although Kenya has home-grown terrorist groups, the roots of the Westgate massacre go back more than two decades, where a bloody civil war in adjoining Somalia left a power vacuum that was quickly filled by competing warlords. In the chaos of this lawless period, a military group, al-Shabaab (“the Youth”), was formed and over the years became more radicalized and extremist. They favor a severe interpretation of Shariah law in the territories they occupy in Somalia, drawing regular comparisons to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Despite recent progress in Somalia, including the election of the current president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the country is still divided. African Union troops, including 4,000 soldiers provided by Kenya, have been successful at pushing al-Shabaab out of the capital Mogadishu, but they still control much of the country’s south. Mohamud’s government also faces serious challenges in providing its citizens basic services and protections, thereby allowing extremist groups like al-Shabaab to gain initial support from impoverished local communities.

In the face of conventional military defeat at the hands of Western-backed forces, al-Shabaab, under the leadership of Abu Zubeyr, changed tactics and has increasingly pursued asymmetrical attacks that produce high numbers of causalities. Eventually, al-Shabaab began exporting terror – first to Uganda in 2010, when 70 people died while watching a soccer match, and, now, to Kenya. Questions, however, remain regarding the extent to which al-Shabaab may have received support from other international terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaida.

Importantly, the Nairobi attack was not simply a local event in a distant country. The attackers came from a variety of countries, including, possibly, the United States and Britain. The group responsible was from a neighboring country in the region, specifically striking its target in response to multilateral efforts to weaken it at home.

Africa has clearly become the new front line in the “war on terror.” The ingredients that allowed al-Qaida to grow in Afghanistan in the years leading up to the 9/11 attacks are now present in ample amounts across Africa. In the lawless gaps beyond the reach of ineffective central governments, militant Islamist groups can gain support and recruits from individuals wrestling with the consequences of years of grinding poverty. With financial and logistical support from other like-minded organizations around the world, these groups can become highly successful purveyors of asymmetrical terror attacks.

Although the goal of the Westgate attack was to weaken Kenyan and African resolve to resist al-Shabaab, both Kenyan politicians and officials within the African Union have reiterated their desire to continue their efforts to bring peace and stability to Somalia. Now it is up the rest of the world to decide on its response to this horrible bloodshed. The consequences of underestimating al-Qaida in the late 1990s are painfully clear. Similar mistakes should not be made today in Africa.

Given President Barack Obama’s personal ties to Kenya, the United States should be well-positioned to take constructive steps in the weeks and months to come. Unfortunately, having chosen to snub Kenya during his African tour this summer, and largely ignoring the issues plaguing Africa during his first term, Obama has yet to demonstrate that he has a clear vision on how to combat these threats and address the growing dangers on this volatile continent.