I love the Squawk Box crew--they're a class act--and this was a
fun discussion.

Steve argued persuasively that individuals shouldn't trade
stocks, a position I wholeheartedly agree with (To make trading
profitable vs. index funds, you have to beat professionals day
in, day out, which is much harder than most people realize. It's
easy to pick a winner here or there, but, over time, the losers
and trading and tax costs really add up.)

We also talked about Facebook, which I'm generally cautious
about. If I were managing a big, long-only mutual fund, I'd
probably buy it, because there just aren't that many companies
with these global growth prospects that allow a professional to
take a big position in.

But I think everyone else should approach it with caution, for
the following reasons:

First, it's "muppet bait." It's hard to
imagine an offering that has been more widely anticipated and
hyped, so the chance that you have an "edge" is tiny.

Second, Facebook's growth is decelerating, and its
profit margins have peaked. Until growth
reaccelerates, it's hard to see how the stock will sustain a
major upward move, especially at the expected trading price
(over $100 billion)

Third, mobile represents a major change in usage
patterns and a possible threat: Facebook is unlikely
to be able to generate as much revenue per user from mobile as
it does from the web, and the world really is going mobile.
(Facebook actually just cited this in its latest IPO filing
amendment).

Lastly, to his credit, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made clear that he
is willing to sacrifice short-term performance to build his
long-term mission. He has also said, amazingly clearly, that
Facebook's social mission is more important to him than its
business. That is a three-alarm klaxon warning
short-term investors away from the stock. Even if Facebook is
as successful at building its vison as the similarly long-term
focused Amazon was, there were many, many years in
which Amazon was a lousy investment.