CAI retains 2017-18 cotton crop estimate at 360 lakh bales

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has retained its cotton crop estimate for the ongoing crop year 2017-18 at 360 lakh bales of 170 kg each. As on April 30, 2018, around 86 per cent of the estimated crop had already arrived in the market. The stock at the end of April 2018 is estimated at 97 lakh bales including 52 lakh bales with textile mills.

The CAI, however, has made small changes in the state-wise production figures for the cotton season beginning October 1, 2017. The production figures for the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka are estimated to be higher by 2 lakh bales and 50,000 bales respectively, while the production in the states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are now estimated lower by 1.50 lakh bales and 1 lakh bales respectively.

The Statistics Committee of CAI has projected total cotton supply up to April 30 at 347 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrivals of 311 lakh bales up to April 30 and imports which the Committee has estimated at 6 lakh bales up to April end.

Further, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption for 7 months i.e. from October 2017 to April 2018 at 189 lakh bales at an average of 27 lakh bales per month, while the shipment of cotton till April 30 has been estimated at 61 lakh bales. Thus, the stock at the end of April 2018 is estimated at 97 lakh bales including 52 lakh bales with textile mills while the remaining 45 lakh bales are estimated to be held by CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).

The projected yearly Balance Sheet for the Season 2017-18 drawn by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season i.e. up to September 30, 2018 at 410 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which includes opening stock of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be 65 lakh bales. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2017-18 season is estimated by the CAI at 21 lakh bales.

It may be noted that the crop size of 360 lakh bales of 170 kg each is equal to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kg each and the estimated arrival of 311 lakh bales of 170 kg each up to April 30 is equal to 330.50 lakh running bales of 160 kg each.