IMF Program Participation: Is Political Influence Systematic or Selective?

Bird, GR, Mylonas, J and Rowlands, DIMF Program Participation: Is Political Influence Systematic or Selective?

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Abstract

What factors determine whether or not countries have programs with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? The existing literature suggests that a number of economic and political variables may be important, but there is a disagreement about their relative significance. An increasingly popular view is that the pattern of IMF lending is politically driven and that in particular it reflects the interests of the United States. Using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative techniques, this study provides a detailed examination of the economic and political factors underpinning IMF program participation. It focuses on the significance and robustness of US strategic interests to determine whether any such influence is systematic or selective. In general we find that the importance of US political influence over program determination is less systematic than has sometimes been portrayed.