DFL appears poised to regain Minnesota Senate and has a shot at retaking House

Who will be in control when a new Legislature convenes at the Capitol in January?

In the final days before the election, it appears that the Republican grip on the state Legislature is slipping away.

The DFL appears poised to regain control of the state Senate, although most believe the GOP will retain a slight majority in the House. Those findings are based on interviews with a wide swath of candidates and insiders from both parties who are following the races closely — and on MinnPost's analysis of 28 highly competitive races.

But an array of factors — ranging from how well the marriage amendment plays in the suburbs to redistricting to the massive influx of spending by independent groups to the state’s overall turnout — could put the DFL back in control of the House as well.

Never has so much been spent on state legislative races, and seldom have so many of those races remained so tight leading up to Election Day.

A swing of seven seats is needed for the DFL to take back a majority in the House, and a net gain of four seats would give the DFL back its historic control of the Senate. Currently, Republicans control both chambers, the Senate 37 to 30, and the House 72-61. Because of redistricting, all 201 legislative seats are up this time.

How MinnPost’s 28 races are shaping up

MinnPost has been closely following 28 of the most competitive legislative races that insiders believe could determine which party would have control. (See our interactive guide here.)

Of the 12 Senate contests, the DFL appears poised to win three Senate races (a pickup of two seats) and the Republicans are likely to retain three seats. The other six include three slight leads for the DFL and one for the GOP with the remaining two races "coin flips" as to who will win. One prominent DFL insider believes the party has a lock on 32 seats, which would mean it would need only a net gain of two among the six MinnPost races and several others the DFL is targeting.

Of the 16 House races MinnPost is tracking, the DFL looks in good shape in six House races (a pickup of four, including two open seats) while the GOP is expected to win four (including one open seat). The other six appear too close to call. But the DFL would need only three others — either from our list or others the party sees as winnable.

And when it comes to other legislative seats in play, the DFL is targeting lots of "E" city seats. Three are in Eagan, which sent three Republicans — Sen. Ted Daley and Reps. Diane Anderson and Doug Wardlow — to the Capitol in 2010. All three Republicans appear vulnerable this time around.

But Eagan isn’t the only suburb where political change might be occurring.

The same is true in both Edina and Eden Prairie, where the DFL hopes to win races not on the MinnPost list. GOP Sen. David Hann and Rep. Keith Downey, now seeking a Senate seat, are in tough races against Laurie McKendry and Melisa Franzen, respectively. And former Republican state Rep. Ron Erhardt, is running strongly, as a DFLer, for the seat Downey vacated.

‘Extremism,’ marriage amendment factors

A big factor in those suburban races appears to be “extremism,” best exemplified by the marriage amendment. Moderate suburban Republicans are troubled that GOP legislators moved the party agenda into the bedroom.

For example, McKendry, who presents herself as a moderate DFLer, has hammered Hann on being “an extremist.” In support of her charge, she points to Hann’s strong support for the marriage amendment, his endorsement of GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum and his suggestion that Catholic Archbishop John Nienstedt supports “socialism.”

The marriage amendment also could be a factor in legislative districts that include college campuses.

At a Tuesday rally featuring former President Bill Clinton at the University of Minnesota, it was opposition to the amendment — more than the presidential campaign — that seems to stir the emotions of the students.

If opposition to the marriage amendment inspires large student turnouts, there would be significant impact on several key races.

District 14B, for example, includes St.Cloud State University, where GOP incumbent King Banaian is in a very tight race with DFLer Zach Dorholt. In Senate District 24, in the Northfield area, DFLer Kevin Dahle could be boosted over GOP rival Mike Dudley, assuming the amendment inspires students at Carleton and St. Olaf to pay close attention to down-ballot races.

Of course, Election Days are filled with “shoulds,” “woulds” and “coulds.”

‘Big picture’ elements

Based on interviews with numerous sources, most of whom agreed to talk only on background, the” big picture” elements of this election cycle include the following:

• President Obama’s coattails aren’t nearly as long as they were in 2008, when DFLers saw their legislative power grow.

• The mood of voters is much more “moderate” than the conservative view in 2010, when the GOP not only took over in the House but also won control in the Senate for the first time in almost a half-century.

In part, that moderating tone is created by the large turnouts that occur in presidential election years. Large turnouts mute the voices of extremists.

• Lack of unified leadership in the GOP Senate caucus is leading to some of Republicans’ Election Day problems. (That divided leadership situation dates to the 2011 fall of Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch, which was followed by the rise of several small GOP factions in the Senate. Recall, it was Koch who received much of the credit for putting together the Senate candidates and campaigns that proved victorious two years ago.) House GOP leaders are much more unified.

• Then, there is “the mom factor.” Moderate women who are running may have a slight advantage, especially in the suburbs. Voters seem to believe that most women won’t spend as much time in partisan showmanship as the men do.

These big-picture developments play out in small ways, too.

For example, in the new House District 5A, which includes such places as Bemidji and Walker, two colorful incumbents — Republican Larry Howes and DFLer John Persell — are squaring off in what most believe will be a close race.

Howes is looking at presidential outcomes to handicap his race.

Larry Howes

“This will not be 2008,” said Howes of the year that Obama swept to a 10-point victory in Minnesota. “If it’s like 2004 [when John Kerry carried Minnesota by 3 percentage points], it’s going to be close. If it’s like 2000 [when Al Gore carried Minnesota by just 2 points], I win.”

Howes, unlike the majority in his caucus, supports big bonding bills. That gives him some support among blue-collar workers.

On the other hand, Persell has the backing of tribal leaders in a district in which American Indians make up 19 percent of the population.

Back and forth it goes, although most “insiders” interviewed by MinnPost believe Howes will eke out a close win in a district that the MinnPost analysis shows has a DFL history.

John Persell

Races such as the Persell-Howes matchup are being played out across the state, sometimes in confounding ways.

For example, the MinnPost analysis — based on voting practices in the last three elections — shows a heavy DFL lean in the new Senate District 5. But redistricting has put DFL incumbent Tom Saxhaug up against Republican first-term incumbent John Carlson. Despite the three-term Saxhaug typically breezing to victories, even DFLers are calling this race “extremely close.”

This is one of nine contests that DFLers consider “swing races” for control of the Senate. DFLers believe they need to win only two or three of them to regain Senate control. It should be noted that many of the DFL-designated swing races are not among MinnPost’s 12 Senate races.

Senate races

How do MinnPost’s 12 Senate races shape up?

Again, based on numerous interviews, DFLers appear to be running very well in the following races:

District 51A, one of those Eagan races that matches incumbent Republican Diane Anderson and DFLer Sandra Masin.

District 51B, also an Eagan race pitting Republican incumbent Doug Wardlow against the DFL’s Laurie Halverson.

Understand that none of these races is expected to be a blowout, and money continues to pour into legislative races, at record levels, across the state. You can check out our report on spending by independent groups and party caucuses. You can also see how much legislative candidates have raised and spent in MinnPost’s 28 featured races here.

Comments (4)

The shift is control of the Minnesota legislature from GOP to DFL is likely as the article clearly states. As we look at the campaigns however there is not a clearly vision of what is driving the shift. Certainly redistricting has some impact but the real reason has to be linked ot either the quality and type of candidates, party image in Mn legislature, or specific issues.Considering these topics it seems taht there are really no clear issues (unfortunately), so the real reason must relate to a view of who can best serve and image of progress and vision. The Minnesota tradition of progressive legislation, innovation in government, quality education etc. is not expressed well in most campaigns-- the themes seem to be no tax increases-- or spend more--but nothing about innovation in redesign, new initiatives in education, a push for new industries and jobs etc. The voters in 2012 really have no choice of how to move Mn forward. Bottom line I would like to see some data on why the shift in control and what drove that voter decision.

I hope who ever wins control of the state legislature does not see victory as a mandate. The state legislature should figure out a way to reduce campaign expenditures of all parties. We talk about belt tightening all year until the election cycle and then the cash flows from everywhere, what a waste.

The only way to avoid gridlock in this current politcal atmosphere is to have one party solidly in control of the House, Senate, and Governor. Depending on your personal agenda, that may be a good or a horrible thing. There is no thought to compromise, and that is seen as a loss of principles and in some cases, of morality. But since it is likely that no one party is going to be in control, gridlock is a continuing certainty.