I was reading the updates on this site about the Bahraini F-16 that disappeared from radar at night over the Arabian Gulf. No mention of a distress call, no pilot, no wreckage. I am surprised no evidence of wreckage has been found - no floating debris, no oil/fuel slick, no transponder signal. How deep is the Arabian Gulf in the area the plane disappeared? Anyone know?

I am not making accusations, just speculating - what are the thoughts on a possible defection attempt where the plane was flown to a neighboring country? Again this is just speculation in light of the reported facts, not a criticism of Bahrain or their missing pilot. Anyone?

If we have a crime, we need to find the motive. What could it be? Money? Probably not.

Just a few facts on Bahrain:

Bahrain is a Muslim country, and the official language is Arabic, although most of the population speaks English.

Bahrain benefits from an excellent health service which is free to local Bahraini's.

Bahrain is a very safe country that does not suffer from very violent crime.

There has been a dramatic improvement in the standard of living for most Bahraini's and life expectancy for the average Bahraini is now in the seventies. Bahrain offers free schooling to its residents and it is compulsory until the age of 15. Bahrain is now a modern industrial state with good standards of health care and education.

Lieven, that pretty much matches with what friends who have visited Bahrain have told me.

Regardless of the country involved, I would think it would be almost impossible to keep something like a defection a secret. Look at how widely publicized the past defections by MiG-29 and MiG-25 pilots have been.

Depending on conditions it is quite possible for a mishap in water to leave almost no trace on the surface. An F-16 augered in a few years ago in a lake with a water depth of about 3 ft. The aircraft was at high speed, 400-600kts. Except for another F-16 in the flight knowing the area where the mishap occurred it might have not been found till the lake dried up. As I heard it there was no slick although the aircraft was totally destroyed.

From what I read in the news, <b>spatial disorientation</b> would be the most likely cause. He probably thought he was climbing when he was actually diving.

The pilot's senses could have been confused by the night conditions especially since there was no moon in the sky to use as a point of reference.

The fact that there was no mayday signal prior to the disappearance indicates the pilot was unaware of any immediate danger. Also, if the pilot would have ejected, the ejector seat would have given off a signal.

The pilot was said to be flying at an altitude of 18,000 feet just moments before his plane disappeared from the radar. He was one of the most senior officers in the squadron and a qualified flight instructor.

According to the news papers it is thought he crashed into the sea after performing a dive manoeuvre with his wingman. The other F-16 later landed safely in Bahrain.

I haven't seen any information on the maneuver that would give me a clue as to the reason for the mishap. Spatial disorientation is certainly a possible, as is G induced Loss of Conciousness (G-LOC). Since G-LOC can sneak up on a pilot very quickly especially in cases where a series of positive and negative G maneuvers occur in a short timeframe, testing a new maneuver is a likely time for G-LOC.

As to the Lake crash, Hill AFB is where I recall this crash to have been. Unfortunately, that was a G-LOC situation where the pilot did not recover in time to initiate ejection. I don't believe the crash was in the Great Salt Lake itself, as I heard the lake area was drained, or dried out before recovery operations began in earnest. The wreckage was deep in the mud.

we are family of bahraini pilot col.a.aziz aldosari . we stail not beleived the story . there is a un known happened . we like to all humans send us any information help to found hero pilot. we think pilot stail a life .... were is the tecnolgeic of the f-16 ??? no modern radar discover the plane under water ???? help as sooooooooooooooooooooooooooon .

It's been my experience that most early speculation to the cause of most class A mishaps is almost always wrong. Better to wait on hard information, which might take a while. So far Lieven is the only one to post something really useful that represents some fragment of known fact on this event.

Q : For F-16 Engineering :
Is their any piece of the F-16 floating after a crash into the sea?
Any special worker of F-16 Block 40 can give an answer?
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hsssa969@hotmail.com

I am no F-16 engineer or mechanic, but one thing I've noticed is that when planes crash into the sea, most of the stuff that floats at the surface is pretty small and is easily scattered by currents. However, if the speed of the impact is high enough, the plane and it's pieces might plunge to great depths and leave not a trace. Also, given that the composite materials used in airframes are denser than water, I expect most of the airframe to sink anyway, so IMHO the chances that a bit of tail or wings or something like that to be found are pretty remote. The black box has most chances of floating back to the surface, and if it would be found, the recordings would help clarify certain things... however, you never know what condition the crash might leave the black box in and the sad truth is that the black boxes are quite small and even though they should have floaters, technology isn't fool proof...

On one final note, despite my unwillingness to end finish this off on a pessimistic tone, I would like draw your attention to the effects of high-speed impacts have on warplanes. Several years back, a USAF A-10 crashed into a mountain. That the reasons of the crash were never elucidated is not the point. the point is that the debris was scattered over more than 3 kilometers square and water can be as though as concrete if the object hitting it has enough speed. And there weren't currents to scatter the debris around either... nor would it sink...

Sorry, I really wish I could have finished on an optimistic note, but I fear that Col. Aziz Aldosari has joined the long list of aviators to who toasts are raised at comemorative dinners. My condolences to his relatives. May he be the last aviator to meet such a fate...