Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Security versus xenophobia

Public beliefs about immigrants and immigration are widely regarded as erroneous. For example, members of the public typically overestimate the immigrant fraction of the population by ~10–15 percentage points. On the other hand, popular stereotypes about the respective characteristics of different groups (e.g., sexes, races, nationalities) are generally found to be quite accurate. The present study shows that, in the UK, net opposition to immigrants of different nationalities correlates strongly with the log of immigrant arrests rates (r = .77; p = 0.00002; 95% CI = [.52, .90]) and with the log of their arrest rates for violent crime (r = .77; p = 0.00001; 95% CI = [.52, .90]). This is particularly noteworthy given that Britons reportedly think that an immigrant’s criminal history should be one of the most important characteristics when considering whether he or she should be allowed into the country. Moreover, the associations are not accounted for by a general opposition to non-Whites, non-Westerners, foreigners who do not speak English, Muslims, or those from countries with low average IQ. While circumstantial in nature, the study’s findings suggest that public beliefs about immigrants are more accurate than is often assumed.

Translation into the vernacular: 1) People hold accurate estimations of the degree to which different immigrant groups commit crimes and 2) Those criminality rates predict the degree to which people oppose immigration from those countries of origin.

Simpler still: Citizens don't want to import people likely to commit crimes. They distinguish accurately between groups in terms of the probability of committing crimes. Opposition to immigration is based on perceived criminality not on xenophobia or racism.