Yesterday, went over the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. Today is, you guessed it! The top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. There’s fifteen pitchers in these twenty that I will draft. Can you guess which ones? No, not the ones named Chuck. There are no Chucks. Are you even trying? You’ll see from these twenty starters that even the ones I like I’m not quite as jazzed about them. I’m thinking I’m gonna end up with Greinke, Moore and Samardzija on every team and be done with the top 40 starters. Due to drafting about six to seven bazillion teams (rounding up a kajillion), I might mix it up here and there. All of the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings are there. As always, my projections and where tiers start and stop are includamente. That’s Spanish. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball:

21. R.A. Dickey – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Shields. I called this tier, “On my HP Tablet, I designed this tier to be lower than others have them. Now excuse me while I go over to the Lord & Taylor accessory wall.” When Dickey went to the Blue Jays, I wrote up my R.A. Dickey 2013 fantasy. There’s only two cock jokes. Sorry, ladies. 2013 Projections: 16-8/3.38/1.17/182

22. James Shields – When Shields went to the Royals, here’s what I said, “Poor guy. Now he has to contend (bad word choice) with the Royals. He’s gonna forever be known as the guy the Royals gave Wil Myers away for (and Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi — Jesus!). In 2011, he had an xFIP of 3.25. In 2012, he had a xFIP of 3.24. In 2011, he had a K-rate of 8.12. In 2012, he had a K-rate of 8.82. In 2011, he had an ERA of 2.82. In 2012, he might’ve had a better year even though his ERA was 3.52. That’s the good news. The bad news is his Home ERA in his career is 3.33, and his Away ERA is 4.54. Sure, his Fenway ERA was 5.86 and Yankee Stadium ERA was 6.35, but his Kaufman Stadium ERA is 6.38, his Progressive Field ERA is 4.44, his Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome ERA is even 3.79. The only place he’s had success is in Comerica. I was going to like Shields this year. Now, I’m not messing with him.” And that’s me quoting me! 2013 Projections: 13-10/3.77/1.26/198

23. Yu Darvish – This is a a new tier. This tier goes from here until Peavy. I call this tier, “I’ll grab one of these guys when possible; just not going apeshizz cray cray.” What I mean by this tier is I’ll probably not sweat it if someone drafts one of these guys prior to me, but I will draft them if they’re there (stutterer!). In April and September, Darvish’s ERA was 2.20 in 69.2 inning. In May, June, July and August, his ERA was 4.87 in 121.2 IP. So it looks like dealing with the Dallas heat was Darvish’s biggest hurdle last year. A leaguemate watching you at your 2013 draft, “Why are you reading the Farmer’s Almanac?” You, “Seeing if it’s going to be any cooler in Texas this year.” Al Gore enters your draft with a PowerPoint presentation, “As I was saying as consultant of The Beasts of the Southern Wild, there’s ice caps melting at such a rapid rate–” Everyone at your draft, “Noooooo! Not Al Gore!” 2013 Projections: 15-10/3.74/1.24/228

24. Yovani Gallardo – The great (and peaceful) strides made by YoGa in 2011 for his walk rate went poof…in the wind, which is also a song performed by the cover band, Gay Bob Dylan. “The answer my friend is blowing the…” Okay, I’m done. If YoGa regains his 2011 walk rate, he’ll be a top 15 starter. Luckily, due to his Ks, he won’t be worse than around the 24th ranked starter, so I ranked him here. Cool how that worked out, huh? 2013 Projections: 15-10/3.69/1.26/205

25. Kris Medlen – I tried to figure out how to get Medlen in the top 20 starters for longer than I can to admit (117 minutes). Then I looked at my projections for him (a high 7 K-rate and a 3-something ERA) and I couldn’t justify it. If you do skip the Weaver tier from the top 20, then you might get Medlen anyway. His K/BB is a thing of beauty. Really, he’s not that far from Jordan Zimmermann Ks and walks-wise, maybe even better. But the sample size on Medlen had me lower him. Remember, the last year he started games (2010) he had a 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP as a starter. I love someone like Medlen off waivers. I really don’t want to pay top 20 price for him. So, for 2013, I might be Without Medlen. 2013 Projections: 13-8/3.44/1.18/161

26. Jake Peavy – He has a career 3.46 ERA and only once in his ten-year career has he had a year of 200+ innings and a 4+ ERA. That was back in 2006. Unfortunately, since 2002, he’s only had 4 seasons of 200+ innings. So, if he’s healthy, he’s going to be a solid starter. Within that “if” lies all of Peavy’s problems. Peavy is standing in a corn field in 2044 Kansas and suddenly that “if” appears with a hood over its head and gold bars taped to its back. It’s now up to Peavy what he’s going to do. 2013 Projections: 12-6/3.60/1.14/175

27. Johnny Cueto – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lester. I call this tier, “Johnny Roy Jon isn’t just your hillbilly neighbor; it’s also this tier of SPs I don’t like.” In 2010, Cueto had a 3.64 ERA and a 4.09 xFIP. In 2011, a 2.31 ERA and a 3.90 xFIP. Last year, 2.78 ERA and a 3.65 xFIP. The first name that comes to mind is my 4th grade teacher, Ms. Blighkatori. But that’s the first name that comes to mind for everything. The 1st name that comes to mind related to Cueto is Matt Cain. They both are able to beat their xFIP, year in and year out. Cueto does it with ground balls; Cain with fly balls. Cueto also does it with a below average K-rate and a declining velocity on his fastball. Also, he’s in a severe hitters’ park. Maybe Cueto can continue to brave the storm, somehow walking between the raindrops. I’m not risking it. 2013 Projections: 15-10/3.47/1.22/154

28. Roy Halladay – All right, hotshot, you have to ask yourself how much are you willing to spend on a potential bounce back? I’m not willing to spend anything when it comes to a soon-to-be 36-year-old pitcher whose skills are clearly declining. His velocity was down, his walks were up, he didn’t stay healthy… All things being equal, he shouldn’t be worse than a 3.60 ERA, mid-7 K-rate pitcher. I don’t wanna crap on a plate and call it a Pu-Pu platter, so let’s be honest, that’s not so great. 2013 Projections: 13-9/3.64/1.15/182

29. Jon Lester – Kinda like with Halladay, Lester can bounce back. Why am I paying to find out? You in a 50-team, AL-Only league? You have to draft him? Momma Lester holding a staple gun to your head? Unlike Halladay, Lester’s peripherals are pointing to a casual bounce back. Nothing dramatic. His velocity was good; his luck was bad; his walk rate actually got better. Hey, I’ve nearly talked myself into drafting him… Nah. It’s just not worth it unless he falls in the draft because his 2012 4.82 ERA makes him too much of a value to pass up. 2013 Projections: 14-9/3.78/1.28/186

30. Jeff Samardzija – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bailey. I call this tier, “These guys are my BFF (Best Fantasy Friends).” All of these pitchers may get a sleeper post if they haven’t already. I’m slightly crazy for all of them. Their projections are better than some guys above them. The reason why they are lower is a few fold. Onefold, these starters have more risk. Twofold, the guys above them are safer. Threefold, the first two folds were the same, why would there be a threefold? I already went over my Samardzija 2013 fantasy. I wrote it while wearing a pork pie hat while calling myself Heisenberg. 2013 Projections: 12-7/3.45/1.24/195

31. Jonathon Niese – Has anyone else noticed that after Jonathon Niese had his nose job, he also shortened his name to Jon? If he has a bris, he’s gonna start going by J. Niese. Last year, Niese had a 3.40 ERA and a 7.33 K-rate. In 2011, he had a 3.28 xFIP and a 7.89 K-rate, so last year’s ERA wasn’t out of nowhere. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff (90-ish MPH fastball), but he keeps the ball down (around the same as Cueto), and he’s in a solid ballpark. In the 1st half last year, he had a 3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP after the break. His BABIP and K-rate was nearly identical between the two halfs. Walks were the difference. In May, his mechanics were off like the one effin’ day your car breaks down. His walk rate in May was 5.46, which led to a 6.07 ERA. Easily his worst month. Niese is going to be the Mets ace. He’s not going to strikeout 200, so he’s not in the top 20, but he will provide ratio help barring any unfortunate luck. Anyone that is anyone knows the new powder of choice is Molly and Niese is the new Molly. 2013 Projections: 13-8/3.39/1.14/164

32. Brandon Morrow – Here’s a recurring dream I have: Brandon Morrow is sitting on my fantasy team (I let my guys sit) and he has the pre-2012 Ks — the 10+ K-rate that we all loved — but he also has the 2012 walk rate — the under-3 walk rate that helped him to an under 3 ERA last year. Also in this dream, he throws 200 innings for the first time in his career and wins the Cy Young with 22 wins. Playing the part of Morrow in my dream is Richard Mulligan from Empty Nest. Up until a young Richard Mulligan playing Morrow, that all could happen. Not simply because Mulligan is dead, but this guy should be playing Morrow. In related news, we need to start selling Razzball solid gold shirts. 2013 Projections: 16-7/3.20/1.14/205

33. Homer Bailey – It feels like Bailey has been on the verge of greatest for the last ten years, but it’s only been the last 6 years. That alone makes him somewhat of a gamble. But now it’s looking like the Reds might have rushed him originally. He was a high K, low walk guy once upon a time in the minors. Then he was a low K, high walk guy in the majors for about five years. In 2011, he was on the verge with a solid K-rate and a solid walk rate. There was some thought he hadn’t put it all together, but he followed up 2011 with almost exactly the same peripherals, and now it’s just a matter if he can build on it. With all of this history, you’d think Bailey was on the wrong side of 30 years old. He’ll be 27 this year. It wouldn’t shock me to see him get 19 wins and a 3.50 ERA. Fo’ really. 2013 Projections: 16-9/3.57/1.20/188

34. Jarrod Parker – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Milone. I call this tier, “A bunch of zeroes, and zeroes aren’t a bad thing.” The tier name means I have some reservations about these guys, but I also like them, which leaves me at neutral or at zero. Zero is the new excitement. I blame the recession. If you’ve been reading for any length of time the Razz, the Rizzybizzy, the Razzputin, the RazzleBazzle, then you know I think the Verducci Effect is half confirmation bias and half cherry-picking. So, I’m not giving much credence to Parker’s large jump in innings from 2011 to 2012. I’d prefer the jump wasn’t there, but I also don’t think we should just ignore the pitcher because of it. Pitching is not a natural thing to do, and any of them could break down. Even after being limited last year, there’s a chance The Strasborg could break down. Somewhere, Ralph Wiggum’s wearing a Nationals hat and his heart just split in half. Parker had a rough stretch in July (5.34 ERA) and August (4.71 ERA). It might have been due to exhaustion, but his September was fine (2.31 ERA). His K-rate last year wasn’t anything special (6.95), but his K-rates in the minors were better. Now combine a jump in innings, an unspectacular K-rate then subtract a good pitchers’ park and a young pitcher that could get better and you’re at zero. Yay! 2013 Projections: 14-7/3.61/1.27/176

35. Ian Kennedy – In 2011, he was fourth in Cy Young voting. Then he regressed last year. As any scholar of Saberhagenmetrics can tell you, it was bound to happen. With neutral luck, he’s a 3.80 ERA guy. When he got lucky with long balls, he was a Cy Young candidate. When his long ball luck regressed, he turned into a 4 ERA pitcher. Looking deeper, it shows he stopped using his slider, reduced use of his curve and lost velocity on his fastball. Doesn’t it sound like he was injured? Not to answer, but to mull. You’re cute when you mull. C’mon, let me hug you– Ha, I just pickpocketed you! C’mon, man, pay attention. 2013 Projections: 14-11/3.81/1.20/191

36. Mike Minor – A big part of me thinks Minor is going to be better than Medlen this year. The Lily Tomlin part of me, to be exact. Last year, his K-rate was 7.28, but he’s shown the ability to push that above eight. His walks are always in check. Or procházky, if he kept his walks in Czech. To stick with the ambulatory theme, he needs to take a step forward this year to earn this ranking. Cutting his homers allowed wouldn’t hurt, getting lucky would be even better. 2013 Projections: 11-10/3.87/1.22/181

37. A.J. Burnett – He was basically the same guy last year as he’s always been. Hmm, that sounds like Carole King lyrics. I wonder if the A in A.J. stands for apricot. Probably. So, Apricot, had to deal with big-time offenses from the time he went to the Blue Jays until he was done with the Yankees. In the NL, Apricot’s a great pitcher (I could’ve done the math, but I got lazy). The reason why he’s in this tier is for some reason it always seems like he needs an attitude adjustment to get motivated. You’re named after one of the most important crops of ancient Persia, cheer up! 2013 Projections: 13-11/3.67/1.25/184

38. Tommy Milone – Milone’s ratio help, if nothing else. If Milone could nudge up his 6.49 K/9 from last year to seven-plus, he could be a huge value pick here. From The Files of the Obvious (FotO): going from 6.49 K/9 to 7+ K/9 isn’t that dramatic of an approval. Though, I think getting to a 7+ K-rate for him is a pipe dream, because his fastball maxes out at 88 MPH. The FotO also tells us major league hitters aren’t exactly intimidated by an 88 MPH fastball. He had the 7th slowest fastball. Some guys below him: Zito, Buehrle, Arroyo… And barely above him –> Jered Weaver. (And you wonder why I’m low on Weaver.) Milone gets by with pinpoint control, which he always had in the minors, too. Solid ratio man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff. Sorry, got a little Seussian there. 2013 Projections: 9-10/3.58/1.26/147

39. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Some are excited by these guys. Even some writers on this site. Not I (or is it me?).” Could Lincecum bounce back is the question all of you are pondering. Right after, where on earth did you put your pants. You forgot to wear them today. It’s okay, no one comes by your cubicle. Now back to the first question. He lost two miles on his fastball last year. That’s not an absolutely killer unless you actually owned him in fantasy last year. That guy shaking in the corner of the Subway station with the sign, “Will not own Lincecum for food.” Ask him what it was like last year owning him. So, better than is he going to bounce back, is he going to regain two miles on his fastball and not have to throw more sliders and curveballs to make up for it? Even if you correct for luck, he wasn’t exactly solid last year. Also, it wasn’t like he started off fine and then hide an injury in the 2nd half. He had a hideous 1st half and backed that up with a terrible 2nd half. Wouldn’t have Righetti and Bochy have put their heads together and formed one super-ginormous head and fixed Lincecum’s issues by July if they could’ve? I need about six starters per team and there’s about forty pitchers I like. I’m fine avoiding Lincecum. As a counterpoint, here’s a Lincecum sleeper post. And here is a graph of Lincecum’s fantasy value. 2013 Projections: 12-10/3.98/1.28/199

40. Phil Hughes – I kept looking at Hughes and thinking how I’ve never liked him before. I’m maturing. Now excuse me while I play Biz Markie’s Pickin Boogers and giggle. “Just last night when Kane was gettin’ ready, I slipped a little green one inside his spaghetti…” Hehe… Maybe I liked Hughes when he first was called up. I don’t remember because it was a long time ago and like I said I’m maturing. Hughes reminds me of Homer Bailey. Hughes also came up with a lot of hype. He was going to be the next big thing. He was ranked the Yankees number one prospect, and the number two prospect for all of baseball in 2007. Well, that was like a decade ago. Early on, he showed glimmers of his big swinging dizznick ways. He took a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his 2nd major league start before leaving with a pulled hamstring. Then things unraveled for about four years. Last year, he lowered his walk rate to 2.16 and raised his K-rate to 7.76 while finally making 30+ starts. Like Bailey, he’s only going to be 27 years old this year and is on the verge of going from “Hey, whatever happened to that guy, Hillman Phools?” “You mean, Phil Hughes?” “Yeah, him.” to top 30 starter value. If you’re drafting for 2012, don’t draft Hughes. If you’re drafting for 2013, I’d grab him. UPDATE: He got a Viagra stuck in his back and now it’s bulging. I’d be very careful about drafting him. See, I’m not that mature after all. 2013 Projections: 13-10/3.89/1.22/164

saw carole king do a benefit concert for brandeis university , back in the early 90’s , i believe .
it was the tour where she was introducing her daughter for the 1st time .
(also saw her with james taylor , back in ’70 when he was touring with that edmund fitzgerald guy … another time , another story)

anywho , back to carole … struck me as odd that brandeis university wold be in need of a benefit concert … which goes to show you , if it’s free and it’s of value … TAKE IT .

@Steve: I played Gordon lightfoots “if you could read my mind” a couple of weeks ago at my favorite watering hole. Everyone kept asking who played yhe john holmes song. Sad how people only relate music to movies, tv, or commercials.

I agree about Yu. No, not you, the pitcher. Last season he posted a 3.52 xFIP and an xFIP lower than 4 every single month. His struggles can be attributed to a few factors.

In August he posted an astounding. 354 babip. In 5 of the 6 months, he had a babip over .287. While a .300 babip tends to be the average for most pitchers, this tells me two things. One, he really only got lucky in one month on batted balls. Secondly, he was really unlucky on batted balls considering he was sixth in baseball in BAA at .218, behind the likes of Verlander, Kershaw, Cain, Weaver and Gio. All of those pitchers had lower babips than Darvish. In fact you have to go all the way down to number twenty three on the list, Mr. Samardzija, before you find a higher babip, one point higher albeit.

While looking at this list, one other thing stands out. In three months, June through August, Darvish posted a below average LOB%. The major league average last season was 72.5%, yet Darvish posted marks around 64% for that three month span. Considering Darvish actually pitched better out of the stretch, this makes even less sense. Darvish actually posted a better xFIP (3.22) with men in scoring position than with a runner on first or the bases empty. His wOBA in these situations was a paltry .275. Yet he managed to post a below average LOB%. It just doesn’t make sense. On the aforementioned BAA leader board, you have to go down twenty one players to find a lower LOB%.

I summary, Darvish has some of the most unhittable stuff in baseball with a SwStr% of 11.8, 7th in baseball (behind the likes of Moore, Scherzer, and Samardzija fwiw). Looking at the data, Darvish had one lucky month and 5 months that you could label unlucky or borderline nuetral. The fact that his best month was his last, posting a BB rate of 5.6% and a BAA under. 200, could be a promising sign. If Darvish takes a step forward with his control or even has a couple more “lucky” months, you could be looking at a top 10 pitcher.

Between Lester and Samardzija, who would you take in a 12 team H2H 7×7? With the write-ups you gave both of them, it’s probably silly that I’m even asking, but it is in the 13th round, 24 total.
R,HR,RBI,SB,K,AV,OPS for the hitters
W,L,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP for the pitchers

I’ll be interesting to see where you rank Lance Lynn and Josh Beckett, and their Projections. Maybe the Cards think Lynn’s the type of guy that needs “motivation” by competition or the fear of losing a job, or some crap like that. 180 ks in 176 innings can’t be overlooked, the guy is only 25 hit a snag in August but came back very strong in September(in the middle of pennant race), so the Cards will pencil Carperstain, Garcia’s falling apart shoulder and Westbrook(are you freaking kidding Me) ahead of him, and have him compete with 2 guys that will have innings limit for the 5th spot….Beckett goes to Chavez Ravine/NL West Heaven and regardless of fastball velocity decrease/beer&chicken crap, He’ll be a lot closer to 2011 numbers than 2012, think Ryan Dempster 2012 before the trade…, bank on it!!!, my 2 cents

@Grey: and the Dodgers and so and so and so, 4 good to great months, 2 clunkers(one of them he even Kd 38 in 33 innings), inconsistent, but come on, guy’s 25…, we’ll see where he ends up @ the end of the year, probably better numbers than half the SPs above……

I think you nailed the Homer Bailey and Mike Minor rankings. Both guys clearly figured something out and took a step forward in the 2nd half last year. Those types of guys tend to get undervalued by other sites who rank based on full season stats from 2012.

Halladay reminds me a lot of Johan in 2010. Both were coming off their first injury-plagued subpar season after being considered among the top pitchers for many years. In Johan’s case he turned out to be decent in 2010 but it was clear that it was the beginning of the end for him, and I don’t think anyone turned a profit drafting him. I would bet we see something similar with Halladay.

There are quite a few pitchers in this list that I like.. But my question goes back to the top 20 actually…
Mixed league – would you trade David Price @21 for Max Scherzer at 6? Or would you keep Price since the value is there?

Grey – $400 Dynasty/Keeper linear weights points format with 40-man rosters – do you keep Lester at $18? I have Kershaw ($42) and a slew of good solid lower-cost pitching (including Minor at $6, Hanson at $7 and Anderson at $5) but Lester fits nicely as a second-tier guy if he bounces back. With cut-day today, the only other available starters at or above Lester’s level include Lee, Lincecum, Pineda, Haren, Cobb …

@byron from austin: I wouldn’t be messing with a lot of SPs in that league because you have two negative categories in that league (bases on balls allowed and losses). I won a h2h league with those categories while only using three starting pitchers after July. It was the ’09 season. I had Jiminez, Sanchez and Greinke.

@Wallpaper Paterson: this is a roto league. u need at least 6 solid starters to compete, some use 7. I have by far the best lineup in the league, I need to choose my pitching wisely to win the league. I’ve had a lot of bad luck.

@Phil: Usually I would want to keep at least one SP out of 5 keepers, but looking at those hitters I think they go before any pitchers in a draft. If I had to choose…Votto, Pedroia, Heyward, Stanon, Cargo…if I needed a SP probably scherzer over either pedroia or heyward.

Right handed pitcher operation out of Yankee Stadium with the highest FB% (47.6%) against of all qualified MLB starters last year. I think he’s a solid real world guy for the back end of the Yanks rotation, but I think batted ball profile plus home park put a ceiling on his value.

Grey kinda surprized Hiroki Kuroda didn’t sneak in the backdoor of this post, he’s had 3 straight years of below 3.50 era 1.20 whip, 7ish K/9, 2ish BB/9. that all looks like it would fit in nicely by Neise or Parker. Am I missing something other being in a worse park?

I am inclined to keep: Wainwright,Bumgarner,Chapman and Latos. This would give me an inexpensive and formidable staff and I think the others can be replaced for similar value during the auction; but I am open to suggestions.

I understand. I just can’t convice myself to keep Chris Davis. He may have single handedly!? won the championship for me (with Aoki) with is mashing during the final two weeks of the season, but I think he will come at a discount. One more reason to consider: Chapman will be on an innings limit, and is unproven as a starter. I have almost convinced myself that i need to handcuff him with Latos. That, and I don’t want to throw Latos back in and have him outperform Wainwright, Bumgarner, and/or Chapman!

I’m sorry I even posed the question! There I go, asking for advice and refusing to use it, again….No wonder Mrs. DansUggla gets so upset with me.

I streamed hard for reals for the first time last year and it worked out so well i can’t wait to do it again. When I think of my h2h playoffs last year all I remember is me in a convertible, driving through the desert, Marco Estrada riding shotgun and Lance Lynn with a bucket of chicken in the back seat. Lance has to sit in the back because when Lance sits around the car he sits AROUND the car! Hrm, that doesn’t quite work.

I’m in a 6×6 league with OPS and QS as the extra categories. We’re allowed a min/max starts of 5/12 per week. With this format, I think it increases the value of SPs and decreases the value of closers. Would you agree? In this format, would you rather have Garza or Nathan?

Mr. Gray: Fun List, again…. A bunch of these “newer” guys helped me last year.. Some of the bigger names just had to go on here – being left off the first list …. It is the “newer” ones make these list at this level…

Yu is the man… He took off after his rest last year at the end.. I think, it was the ZONE that bothered him early more than the heat… Is THAT a Strike??? … NO!!! What about THIS???? COME ON!!… Look for BB #s to fall…. He’ll do better this year… Health like all pitchers is the question… I had rostered him for years and years waiting for his arrival… The fant. BB Gods did not smile on him – landing him in Texas… That Yin and Yang poopoo again… Hate Texas pitchers… Walk on by for permanent roster spots.. Yu being an exception to this thinking…

Like everything about the Red Legs… Homer perhaps has the best-there-ever-was Name Factors in MLB history -( I find Coco Crisp too contrived … So he drops just down below Homer)

Gallardo (and maybe a couple other of his brother Brewcrewers could have been here too.).. Gally is interesting this year… He may be the guy – if you don’t have Cheesehead at your draft – whose selection comes down the draft board… He could do it all – if he cuts down on those BB… 4 CATS… I’m feeling absolutely gooy-oozy about him this year for some reason… Been having night sweats about that staff in general… Estrada and Fiers!! Those hunks!!!. ..Wish,. Samardzija played there… Then, I would never wake up… Because, I would be in fantasy BB heaven…

K BounceBacks left off = Lincecum and Wilson… Are they finished??? I would not bet on it… I’ll make a run on them if they are there later than they should be… Drop’m if they still stink…

Iwakuma could be in this range by the end of the season …. Not my type as K rate is low… But, he is a worthy 5th starter… There are a host of these 150 – 160 K types who could fit here when the smoke clears = dah!!!

I am not looking for a repeat in Oakland of the Pitching Miracle… (Or Hitting one for that matter).. Oakland’s staff may fit in the next round… ERA and RAT not the issue…Lack of Wins and health are IMO… Anderson is still the man in Oakland this year- if healthy… Not Parker (needs one more year)…

Anibal Sanchez is a intriguing … Not an arm for this list…. But, does he make your next??? Like the Win potential and Ks ..ignoring the RAT… I need some input on this guy… I just don’t know??? I have trouble going #2 when thinking about guys like this…

This area is where seasons are won and lost – the 30 – 60 range.. Keep’m coming
Panting, waiting for tomorrow.. Thanks for the hard work, Razzman..

If that’s true about Yu, the pitcher, not you, then he should be in for a great 2nd year… I like Niese a lot… No tea leaves, only coffee… Gallardo is fine to own, prepare to have a miserable April with him… I’m not touching Lincecum and Wilson… Iwakuma’s a late flyer at this point for me, but could surprise…

I like CJ Wilson too. His dip correlated to elbow trouble and may have been the cause. He had it cleaned out (second time) and when he had it done before he came back strong.

Brett Anderson is solid but his K rate indicates that he’s pitched to contact at the major league level. I think his reputation as a high K guy followed him from the low minors, but he doesn’t look like that guy at th MLB level. Lot of A’s guys taught to pound the zone and pitch to contact and let th O.Co swallow up flyballs. The guy with the K upside is Parker. His fastball has life and his change is nasty.

Gallardo has very stable numbers over a 3 year sample. I think his talent level is established and luck could drag him one way or another but I would not be surprised to see him put up a season that looks a lot like last season.

You have an interesting style there, t moore. What’s that Miyagi thing about?

one other thing. On Darvish, I heard this guy who is scout talking about scouting him in Japan and he said Darvish was getting EVERYTHING called a strike. Total Michael Jordan rockstar treatment. It makes sense that he struggled with feeling like he was getting squeezed when the strike zone suddenly shrunk to the size of the strike zone.

Nice list. I have a lot of these guys ranked similarly to you, and I’m sure I’ll be owning some combination of them in a bunch of leagues. One big difference (and I was saving this debate for today) is Halladay. From ’08-’11, here are his per-year averages – 19 wins – 9 losses, 32 games started, 242 IP, 213 Ks, 2.59 ERA, 1.065 WHIP. Grey: “That’s swell – if you’re drafting for ’08-’11. He turns 36 in May, has thrown over 2700 innings (including the postseason), his velocity was down, his walks were up, he didn’t stay healthy.” And almost half of that was a real quote!

“That’s a lot of negatives. So why should I draft Halladay?” I’m glad you asked, random voice in my head. Let’s look at two pitchers who rate as good Halladay comps – Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown. You could argue Tim Hudson as well, but he never had a comparable K-rate and usually allowed significantly more base runners as a result. So, I’m looking at years in which Brown and Mussina – 1. were a similar age to Halladay; 2. had similar workloads up to that point in their respective careers; and 3. were coming off an injury/injury plagued season. For Brown, his comp is the ’03 season and for Mussina it’s the ’06 campaign.

I expect something similar (if not better) from arguably the best pitcher of this century. This assumes that he’s healthy, of course, and not pitching through injuries like he attempted to do last year. Thoughts?

Besides age and workloads, are there comparisons to be made between those three? I’m not sure… Mussina had one more good year in the middle of a bunch of lousy years and Brown had that year then that was it… Neither Mussina or Brown lost significant velocity either…

@Grey: I took these similarity scores from Baseball-Reference.com. They listed other comps such as Bob Welch and Dwight Gooden, but I don’t agree with those quite as much. Mussina was #1, Hudson was #2, and Brown was #6 in terms of similar pitchers through the age of 35. I think that they’re pretty similar, actually. Halladay throws the most fastballs of the bunch, Brown had that heavy sinker that he liked to use, and Mussina junked it up a bit towards the end of his career. They all have similar K-rates, BB-rates, etc. Halladay lost some velocity cause he rushed himself back from the DL. He didn’t look right all year (from what I saw of him), that’s why spring training this year will be more important than usual for him. Don’t forget – Brown didn’t have as many good years later on cause he had more durability concerns than the other two, and Mussina pitched in a hitter’s park in the AL. CItizens Bank isn’t in the same league as Great American, Coors, Arlington, U.S. Cellular, etc. in terms of being an extreme hitter’s park, despite it’s reputation.

Did Halladay lose velocity for that reason? I don’t know, honestly… At his age, I don’t see him gaining back lost velocity, but I could be wrong, wouldn’t be the first time… Those pitchers rates do look similar, but they’re not the same people in the same circumstances… No two are… It’s like saying Scott Rolen will be great this year because he’s similar to Beltran according to B-R… They’ve been similar but they are separate players with separate concerns… Good debate though…

@Grey: Like you said, no two players are exactly alike. I just liked the Brown and Mussina comps because they’re similar enough to Halladay in terms of build, longevity, K-rate, BB-rate, etc… I don’t think that a comp is necessarily accurate because a website said it is. I’m not sure where the Welch comp (finesse pitcher) and Gooden comp (power pitcher who burned-out from overuse at a young age) came from, but I couldn’t disagree more with them… As far as the velocity issue goes, I read a quote where he said (para-phrasing here) “They don’t pay me to sit on the sidelines”, which leads me to believe that he rushed himself back, and it showed. (Sorry for the lack of a link, as I am technologically-challenged)

I always felt with Halladay that his second wave of dominance is completely tied to being able to throw a 90+ MPH cutter. That’s tough for a starter to do. I think the only pitcher to maintain that starter or reliever is Mariano.

But looking at his chart, the interesting thing is that he had similar dropoffs in Curve Ball and Split-Fingered Fastball effectiveness.

From a usage standpoint, he increase the curve ball at the expense of the fastball and cutter.

My take is that everything’s related (more curves reduce effectiveness, splitter less effective when lesser gap b/w it and fastball) and IF he regains the 2 MPH in FB and Cutter, he can rebound to his 2010-2011 self. If last year’s velocity is his velocity this year, I think he can no longer be considered an ace (2nd pitcher, yeah) and I’d take Hamels or Lee ahead of him.

@Rudy Gamble: I completely agree with you that everything’s related velocity-wise, and that losing the 2 mphs had a trickle-down effect on his secondary pitches. Like I mentioned above though, I think that he rushed himself back and was never quite 100% healthy last year. I would absolutely take Hamels before him (assuming his offseason shoulder soreness turns out to be minor) but Lee is very close to him, as I see him as a risky option this year.

I really want one of those Razzball gold shirts.Does the bling come with it ? I don’t have any money,but we can barter right? My grandpa called and said he found my late grandma’s stash of green stamps. You may have to ask your mom about these. Trust me these are super valuable, Gramps said there are probably a gizllion stamps with the books for them.Ya gotta lick em and put em in the books. I figure a even trade is about right.I wear a large and can I get that in shiney gold please. I’ll also throw in my Giancarlo rookie card. This is the good one wear he’s not wearing a shirt.Just tight uniform pants.

@Grey: I never got the trapper keeper. My dad would bring me home insurance company binders from work. Pee chee was the only school supply guilty pleasure I got. They were ghe best. The paper would never fall out.

@Grey: the real cool kids had no binders, just a folder only. if that. I know dudes that had them with Tigers and some exotic euro car on the front. Not for me, but still a little jealous because at least they got the option. My parents were cheeper that the Astros. I was just a hand me down boy living in a hand me down world.

Hey Grey. Great work. Ryu is intriguing. It’ll be interesting to see if the buzz around him has him going as high as you rank him. Thank you for putting him on my radar.

I was looking at my draft from last year and it was so poor. Well on the hitting side at least. However, I made the playoffs I lost in consecutive weeks on tie breakers to finish 4th. Due to streaming I was able to stay competitive. I guess what I’m trying to say is that really, depending on your league, the draft is only the beginning of the work. And that a poor draft doesn’t mean a poor season.

We have 5 keepers in our 12 team league so all the top guys are gone. Picking through the rest is a crap shoot.

What I will say though is that your rankings of pitchers have been the most consistent and dominant parts of my teams. I really feel like I have drafted pitching like a pro.This 20-40 list is key.

What I would like to hear about from the razzball community is what is the feeling around keeping pitchers given their relative value to position players and their availability? It’s a head to head league with 12 teams. Has anyone out there any rules on keeping players they’d like to share?

Keeper help? Deep league with 14 teams with 9 keepers each. No limit on how long. Gonna Keep Trout, Upton, Desmond, Kipnis, Ellsbury, Moore, Gio, and Bum. With last keeper should I keep Wieters or Cueto??

@Grey: going legend of billie jean again…I will play Pat bennatars love is a battfield in the bar when the girls who shave one side of their hair come in (side commentary: what a weird trend right now) I have only met two people who get the billie jean joke. Fair is fair.

@Jack Full of Hate: I can’t figure this out. You have one of the fastest, most powerful phones on the market. I wonder if its’ browser is trying (and failing) to load something on the page (it’s powerful enough to be able to load everything).

If I’ve ever had issues commenting from my S2, it’s been because the page hasn’t finished loading – or can’t load some item on the page. Normally backing right out of the browser and starting again fixes it.

@Grey: What do u think of Travis Hafner signing with the yankees for 1.1 Million? Guy always gets hurt but if hes healthy he hits… Career 888 OPS for a guy who will be strictly at DH- Whats not to like ?

The Yanks are real short on LH bats with Ibanez and Chavez gone. I don’t even see competition for Hafner in spring training (as opposed to the RH clusterfuck of Matt Diaz, Juan Rivera, and Russ Canzler – I’m betting on Canzler b/c he could play 3B in a pinch).

I think he’s un-ownable in anything < 16 team mixed but worthwhile as a cheap flier in AL-only and as a daily pickup against a meatball RHP.

@Grey: Thoughts ? Unownable ?? In a 12 team h2h Pts league hafner could be a solid option @ Util spot assuming hes healthy. Hes going to love that short porch in yankee stadium. Career 888 OPS is nothing to sneeze at.

@Grey I hate posting something off topic, but do you think picking Goldshmidt in the third round of a 16 person H2H dynasty draft is too high? I have Bruce and Jupton already and want to grab an infielder at this point.

What are your thoughts about a pitching rotation featuring Bumgarner, JZimm, Medlen, Lester and Anderson? 10-team H2H – I feel like I’m missing some Ks but my ratios should be solid. The problem is these are some of the loaded staffs I’m going up against:

I’ll take Lincecum’s 210+ Ks any day… a classic anti-sabermetrician’s dream. The numbers tell a “trend” for 2013 and everyone stays away, the heart of a lion shows up to play some ball and destroys the doubters.

He’s only 28 for starters (with two Cy Youngs) and he’s being written off while we give Homer Bailey (who has done nothing in his career to prove he’s a winner, much less a champion) free pass after free pass.

That don’t jibe, and I think Timmuh will have the last laugh in 2013. 2012 HAS to be eating him up from the inside out, and if he doesn’t respond with a vengeance, then I’ve got him figured all wrong.

I like Timmy for 13-9/3.54/1.26/221 and I don’t think this is too crazy for a guy that will definitely be getting his shizz together in a contract year.

@Grey: fair enough. Like many, I will be watching eagerly for Timmy’s average fastball velocity during spring training. If it continues to drop, he might not even have a starting gig again this year.

If it picks up a bit (like I am suspecting for a 28 year old on a mission to re-establish himself), most everything else (including the change-up) should fall nicely into place. I think this is a big year for the little guy…

Long term what do you think about Mike Minor? He’s up for contract in my league so I’m looking at optioning him for one year at $1 (have to give him up after that) or keeping him for 3yrs at $10 (or pay $7 and keep him for 2 — but if I believe in him, I’d rather take the time for the marginal increase in price). You think he’s worth holding onto as a mid-back of the rotation guy for the next 3 years ($10 is about that price)? Or do you think he’s too risky/not that good, and its better to take a cheap flier on him this year only?

Also, in weighing both this year and years beyond, how would you rank the following $1 unrestricted players: Peavy, Samardzija, Medlen, Skaggs, Shelby Miller, Hughes? Where would you put Minor in that mix (forgetting the cost since they’ll all cost the same as him at the end of this year)?

Rankings are great as usual. I have Minor in a 5×5 $260 keeper league, where there is inflation relative to standard magazines and point shares… top pitchers go for $30-35… I am keeping Price @ $29, Bumgarner @ $13 and Bailey @ $5… would you also keep Minor @ $10 (he could go anywhere from $6-$14 in the auction). Is that too much spend on the pitching?

I was thinking about our conversation the other day about movies we would con our parents/grandparents into taking us to. what about the ones they would let us rent? My parents would let my brother and I get Cheech and Chong movies all the time and i remember my grandfather brought home Night Patrol for me to watch, you know the one with the unknown comic.

Do you take the second overall pick and take whoever is left of Braun/Miggy, or the third pick and take whoever is left from Braun/Miggy/Trout? All things equal, I’d rather let someone else choose and I take last man standing.