The new rates for the state’s individual insurance marketplace are expected to see increases of at least 25 percent and perhaps far more.

Affected will be people who buy individual insurance plans — about 300,000 people today, of whom 70,000 buy through the state-run MNsure exchange and about 230,000 directly from insurers. People who get health insurance from providers or from government programs such as Medicare, Medical Assistance or MinnesotaCare won’t be directly affected.

The rates will be unveiled mid-afternoon. Here’s four things to know about the premium increases.

1. Insurance premiums are expected to go up a lot.

Last year saw insurers raise premiums between 14 and 49 percent. Experts say that will likely happen again — and if anything, the increases will be bigger this year.

“What we’re seeing in other states is premiums are going up faster in 2017 than they have in the past few years,” said Cynthia Cox, associate director of Health Reform and Private Insurance at the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation.

Part of that reflects the health care marketplace, where the high cost of prescription drugs has made health care more expensive. Additionally, a federal subsidy designed to keep premiums down is expiring, which will raise premiums by around 5 percent all by itself.

On top of that, Blue Cross Blue Shield announced this summer that it is largely withdrawing from Minnesota’s individual market. That means 100,000 Blue Cross customers will be seeking other plans — and enough of those customers were expensive enough that Blue Cross decided it was more cost effective to leave the market than to continue to insure them. Blue Cross’ rivals may raise their rates even more to cover this anticipated cost.

2. This isn’t the final word.

The rates unveiled Thursday are just preliminary rates. They still need to be approved by the state Department of Commerce, which can push back against unjustified rate increases. Final rates will be announced Sept. 30, a month before open enrollment begins on Nov. 1.

Because the rates are preliminary, they’ll just be averages. If a plan raises its premiums by an average of 30 percent, individual customers could see bigger or smaller increases than 30 percent. That specific data will come out at the end of September.

3. For some people, the news might be better than it sounds.

A subset of individual insurance customers could see their premiums skyrocket — and still save money.

That’s because government subsidies under the Affordable Care Act will also go up, for those people who qualify.

“When rates increase, so do tax credits, and they increase significantly,” said Allison O’Toole, MNsure’s CEO. O’Toole said MNsure’s projections show the higher subsidies could completely cancel out the premium hikes, or even exceed them. Jim Schowalter, president and CEO of the Minnesota Council of Health Plans, agreed with the projection.

But not everyone can get subsidies. They’re only available for health plans bought on MNsure, not for plans bought directly from insurers. MNsure currently only has about 25 percent of the overall individual market.

And the subsidies are on a sliding scale based on income. Only people earning less than 400 percent of the federal poverty line — $47,520 for an individual or $97,200 for a family of four — can qualify.

People who earn more than that or who choose to buy a non-MNsure plan won’t get subsidies and will have to absorb the full brunt of the premium hikes themselves.

4. The increases come at a time of national turmoil in the health insurance industry.

Blue Cross pulling out of Minnesota’s individual market isn’t a Minnesota anomaly. Insurers have been leaving insurance markets around the country, including broad pullbacks from Aetna and UnitedHealth (neither participate in the Minnesota marketplace).

Even plans that have stuck around say they’ve lost money on their individual market plans.

“You look across states across the country and you’re seeing very similar stories of significant health care needs in the individual market that drive substantial health care expense increases,” Schowalter said.

With political gridlock and broad divisions in both Minnesota and Washington, D.C., neither party has been able to enact new laws to stabilize the insurance market.

David covered politics and government for the Pioneer Press from 2014 to 2017.

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Thanks Obama. Thanks liberals. You OWN this mess that had to be shoved through congress on a budget technicality since it couldn’t get enough votes..

George Orwell

“If you like your health care, you can keep your health care.”
“If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.”
“Your premiums will go down $2500 per year.”

If you voted for Obama…..serves you right.

Keep voting for liberals and increase your pathetic clueless misery.

justme

You are absolutely right, Obama and the clueless liberal democratic party have all but sealed the dismal fate of this country. Obama is by far the worst thing that could have happened to this country. Now some weak minded people are supporting goofy Hillary to carrying on Obama’s legacy, a legacy that is not pro America.

Lynseyjbailey

Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family! !ic948t:
On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it
!ic948t:
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Moe Delawn

Please tell us your plan to keep costs down and eliminate the uninsured. Be sure to use no FAUX talking points. This ought to be good!

Carbon Bigfoot

The uninsured level is basically the same as before Obamacare. The costs would go down if government stayed out of it and allowed insurance companies to offer policies across state lines. MN, for example, allows only 3 companies to offer health insurance policies, keeping competition low and costs high.

Logan George Lawrence Gotwald

Keep cost down? Do you pay any attention to what’s happening? My premium is up over double. My cost has gone up significantly. People use the emergency rooms just as often. The healthcare cost to our state is higher than ever. And you ask what our solution is to avoid admitting how terrible the ACA is?

Adam23

Still over 10% uninsured and many more paying a premium for insurance that is worthless.

mega sardines

It is time to thank Amy and her radicalized Democratic pals who gathered around the black messiah and constructed this debacle. Insure thirty million more for less, keep your doctor and $2500 less per family every year. Those were the promises made by these intellectually challenged pathological liars. On top of that they drove Medtronic and other companies out of the country with their tax on devices. Thank them by kicking them out of office but first harassing them relentlessly for their intentional dishonesty.

Gagmewaspoon

Vote republican or admit that you’re incredibly stupid.

Fightback2015

Just a shout out to Amy Klobuchar, Al Franken, and their Democrat supporters: Good work, guys! Come on PP, Not a word in the article about Dumb and Dumber who helped get Obama care passed. For anyone interested, there is still time to stop out at the DFL booth at the fair and inquire how much Amy and Al’s insurance premiums are going up!

I-am-N

Especially when Franken led the charge on the medical device tax to punish MN companies.

deminn

MNSURE and the ACA need to be terminated. Enough of this profiteering nonsense. End the waste and lawlessness.

MarvLS1

5. All you idiots who voted for Obama and Franken – you own this.

Rob Bauman

This newspaper only prints the liberal side, always. Even the red star prints both sides! Vote these people out!!!

daleman

Thanks Obama!

stormyweather1

Minnesota’s super late on putting its rates out, but HealthPartners, for example, has proposed a *decrease* in premium cost of about 2.5% on its small group plans in Wisconsin.

Undoubtedly some growing pains in the individual market, to be sure. But the news isn’t all bad.

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