*Fall color map for Minnesota as of August 30, 2012. A pocket of 10-25% color change covers a small part of Northern Minnesota, mainly from Bigfork and Northome, toward International Falls, and west to the Lake Of The Woods. Little to no color change in the rest of Minnesota, 0-10%. (MNDNR)

*Peak color times for the state of Minnesota

Weather Tidbits:

*Chilly This Morning in Northern Minnesota: 37F at Togo; 38F at Embarrass; 39F at Bigfork.

*28 days so far this year at or above 90F at Minneapolis/St. Paul. Average is 13 days. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*The summer of 2012 will likely finish as the 3rd hottest summer on record for the state of Minnesota. Only the summer of 1988 and 1934 were warmer. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*9=The number of days this month at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota. Total for 2012 is up to 44 days.

*Don't miss the blue moon Tonight! The next one won't happen until July 31st, 2015. No, the moon won't be blue, it just means 2 full moons occurring in 1 month. (MPR Updraft)

*Could it be? Another month with above normal temperatures for Minnesota? Climate Prediction Center seems to think so with their forecast for above average temperatures for September 2012.

*September may also be drier than average in Minnesota per CPC.

*August temperature update*

August 2012 will finish above average making it the 14th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. The last below average month was June 2011. The record for most consecutive months above average is 17 which occurred from December 1940 to April 1942. (NWS Duluth, MN)

A picture perfect end to August and meteorological summer. Sunny-partly cloudy skies prevailed Today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the crisp 30s and 40s. Winds were out of the north or east at around 10 mph. Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis show an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and another one across Central-Eastern Canada while an upper level ridge covered the Central, Southern, and parts of the Eastern U.S. A westerly was occurring north of that ridge across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +18 to +20C in Southern Minnesota to +14 to +16C elsewhere.Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (August 31st)

High pressure over the Upper Midwest will keep skies clear to partly cloudy Tonight with pleasantly cool temperatures. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with a few 30s possible in the traditional cold spots. Patchy fog could develop late, and winds will remain light out of the north or east around 10 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (September 1st)

Welcome to Meteorological fall (September-November) Partly to at times mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period as high pressure moves off to our east with low pressure to our west. It should remain dry this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (September 2nd-4th)

There is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms for Sunday and Labor Day as an area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move across the Northland. At this time it appears that the best chance for some rain would be late Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night, continuing into Monday Morning. Monday Afternoon/Night look mainly dry at this time. Another opportunity for a few showers or thunderstorms will come next Tuesday as a new cold front heads into the Upper Midwest. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with highs on Tuesday generally in the 70s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Sunday Night and mainly the 50s for Monday Night.

The GFS and EUROPEAN computer models continue to show a pattern change for late next week/weekend (6th-9th) Both models indicate the development of an upper level low/trough from Central Canada, south into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, although they do differ as to how deep and amplified this trough will be. If we do see this type of pattern set-up, then there will be a chance for some rain showers from next Thursday-Sunday (6th-8th) Temperatures are forecast to be near to below normal during this period.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

*Still need an additional 9-12" of precipitation to get back to average in Northwest and parts of Northern Minnesota (red shaded areas) All of Northwestern Wisconsin would need 3-6" of precipitation to get back to normal.

*Isaac won't be bothering the Northland this weekend, but it will hit the Ohio Valley, and points west-south with lots of rain, some locations could receive more than 3-5" of rain this Labor Day weekend, this will put a dent in the ongoing drought, but in the short term it may lead to some flash flooding.

Weather Tidbits:

*The new drought monitor is in and there isn't too much of a change compared to last week in either Minnesota or Wisconsin. For Minnesota: 37% is in moderate drought (36% last week) 19% is in severe drought (17% last week) The worst drought conditions continue to be in Northwest and Southern Minnesota and also affecting the Southern half of Wisconsin.

*Lots of heat This Afternoon in Southern Minnesota, here's some temperatures from 2 PM Today. Owatonna, 97F. Windom, Fairmont, Waseca, Red Wing, and Austin all checked in at 95F.

*On this date in 2009: A record low temperature of 38 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

*14 preliminary tornado reports since Wednesday as Tropical Storm Isaac moves slowly toward the north across Louisiana and Mississippi. (SPC)

A cold front continues to settle south/east through the Northland. Clouds were more persistent Today than what was expected 24 hours ago, and the coverage of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms has been somewhat greater than what was forecasted. The result from all this has been for cooler temperatures Today, but still above average for the 2nd to last day of August. As of 2 PM temperatures ranged from the 70s and 80s in most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a 91 degree temperature reported at Phillips, WI. Dew points Today were in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the southwest or north at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-southwest flow covered the Upper Midwest with an upper trough over the Northwest U.S. and an upper level ridge covering the Plains, Southern U.S., Ohio Valley, and Southern Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +20 to +24C in Southern-Eastern Minnesota to +14 to +18C in the rest of the state.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (August 30th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue into early Evening with clearing skies by mid-Evening and through the Overnight hours. A few rain showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly before 7 PM. A cold front responsible for this activity will exit to our south/east before Midnight with high pressure building east out of the Northern Plains. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees, but some 40s are likely in North Central Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (August 31st)

High pressure controls our weather during this period resulting in clear-partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows mainly in the 50s. North or east winds are forecast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (September 1st-3rd)

Dry weather should continue on Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s, lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees. A chance for showers or thunderstorms will return for Sunday and Labor Day as a low pressure system and it's warm front and cold front pass through the area. High temperatures will stay in the 70s and 80s on Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (September 4th-9th)

A pattern change may be coming toward the end of this period. Will start out with a continued west or west-southwest flow for the 4th-5th, along with that will come another cold front which may spawn a few showers or thunderstorms around the Northland sometime next Tuesday-Wednesday. The mid/upper level flow is forecast to amplify quite a bit from the 7th-9th with a NW or even a north-northwest flow developing across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...An upper level system to our NE could also mean a few Afternoon-Evening showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late next week. Temperatures are forecast to be near average, although they could dip a bit below average between the 7th-9th.

A very warm day away from Lake Superior as high temperatures climbed into the 80s and lower 90s with moderately humid conditions too with dew points in the low to mid 60s. 70s prevailed closer to Lake Superior due to an onshore breeze. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy Today with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

*Fire danger was in the High to Extreme range Today in Northwest, far Northern, and Northeast Minnesota per MNDNR. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

H5 troughs covered the Northeast U.S. and Northwest U.S./Northern Rockies with an upper ridge in place from the Southwest U.S. through the Central Plains and into parts of the Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +22 to +26C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (August 29th)

A cold front will move into the Western half of Minnesota Overnight. Isolated showers or thunderstorms might develop along and ahead of this front after Midnight, some of this activity may move through the Western-Northern parts of our area. Partly cloudy skies are forecast with balmy lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees with a few 50s possible as well. Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (August 30th)

A cold front will move SE and through our area on Thursday, this boundary will then stall out to our south by Thursday Night. Not a whole lot of moisture or instability for this front to work with, also looks very warm (capped) aloft with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14C and 850mb temperatures of +20 to +28C. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly in Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Evening. Northern Minnesota may see a few showers Tomorrow Morning with dry conditions thereafter.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s in far Northern Minnesota with 80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with some 40s possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the west, southwest, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

*Dangerous wild fire conditions might develop in parts of Northern Minnesota on Thursday and the National Weather Service has issued a Fire Weather Watch for Koochching, Itasca, Cass, and Northern St. Louis County.

Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (August 31st-September 2nd)

Friday and Saturday look mainly dry at this time with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible in the Northland on Sunday as a weather system approaches from the west. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s.

Long Range Forecast (September 3rd-8th)

A few rain showers may carry over into Labor Day (3rd) doesn't look like a very big deal, however. Another risk for a few showers/thunderstorms toward the middle of next week (5th-6th) with drying for the the 7th-8th. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages through this period, possibly dropping a little below average by next Saturday (8th)

*2012-13 Winter Outlook from the Farmers Almanac. For most of Minnesota, wild temperature swings and periods of storminess are forecast. The white areas are expected to have cold and snowy conditions this winter.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly to mostly sunny. A few showers possible. High 85 to 90. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

-Excessive Heat Watch for Thursday for the Twin Cities Metro.
-Fire Weather Watch for all of Southern Minnesota for Thursday.

Weather Tidbits:

*Thru August 27th: The average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota: 65.8F which is 1.1 degrees above average. August 2012 may be the 14th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature, amazing!

High pressure of 1020mb covered the Great Lakes and Southern Ontario with low pressure of 1010mb in Southern South Dakota. Skies were partly to mostly sunny in the Northland Today with a couple of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting Southwest parts of our area, or around the Brainerd Lakes during the Morning hours. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

*A 3 hour visible satellite loop of Hurricane Isaac which is located just off-shore of Southern Louisiana late This Afternoon. It's a category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph per NHC.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow is in place in the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level ridge from the Rockies and Northern Plains, through the Central-Southern Plains, upper level troughs covered the Northeast and Northwest parts of the U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +20 to +24C in Southwestern Minnesota to +12 to +18C in the rest of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night (August 28th-29th)

High pressure will be located to our east with low pressure and a stationary front to our west-southwest. The big story on Wednesday will be the heat as high temperatures climb into the 90s in Western-Southern portions of Minnesota. 80s to near 90 degree temperatures will be common in our local area Tomorrow with 70s closer to Lake Superior. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s, but 40s are possible in the typical cold spots, there may also be some patchy fog Overnight. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Skies for the most part should remain partly cloudy through this period.

A cold front will move SE and through our area on Thursday, this boundary looks to become stationary to our south for Friday and Saturday with high pressure passing by to our north. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, otherwise it looks mainly dry through Saturday. Thursday looks very warm with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s, some locations in the Southern half of Minnesota might even soar to around 100 degrees. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 50s.

*12z 8.28.12 NAM-HIRES model valid for Thursday Afternoon. This model is actually showing quite a few showers/t-showers in the Northland as a cold front sags SE on Thursday. Seems to be an awful lot of warm air aloft (cap) and not much moisture for this cold front to work with, so will see how future model runs handle things for Thursday, right now I'm still thinking that odds are with us that the cold front comes through Duluth on the dry side.

*HPC just spitting out meaningless amounts of rain in Minnesota on Thursday, totals <0 .10=".10" b="b">0>

Long Range Forecast (September 2nd-7th)

Still seeing signs that there could be a few showers or thunderstorms in our area for the 2nd-3rd, and possibly again toward the 5th. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but in the 70s closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

*Rainfall forecast valid for 7 PM Wednesday until 7 PM Thursday per HPC. The Silver 1000 is this Thursday at the Proctor Speedway (Duluth, Minnesota) Right now it looks dry for the race, any rain that does develop should be very spotty and mainly west-north of Duluth.

*Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to dump a lot of rain over the Southeast U.S. this week. Flooding will likely become a major issue during the next several days. (map from the HPC)

Skies were partly to mostly sunny with cooler daytime temperatures compared to previous days, but highs Today were still near to above average for late August with 70s and lower 80s throughout the Northland. Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest with an expanding upper level ridge in place from the Rockies through the Central/Southern U.S. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +16 to +20C in Southern Minnesota to +12 to +14C in the rest of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night (August 27th-28th)

Clear-partly cloudy skies are forecast during this period as high pressure passes through the Upper Midwest. Lows Tonight and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Tuesday in the 70s and 80s. A stationary front sitting to our southwest may touch off a few showers or thunderstorms during this period, but this activity is not expected to affect our area.Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (August 29th-31st)

It still looks like a very warm airmass will spread into the Upper Midwest for Wednesday and Thursday with 850mb temperatures of +20 to +30C, this should result in daytime highs reaching the 80s and 90s in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with even some low 100s possible outside of our local area. It does appear that an onshore wind will occur near Lake Superior on Wednesday, possibly even into Thursday, if that happens then temperatures closer to the big lake will be somewhat cooler compared to Inland locations. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s. Not much threat for any rain from mid-late week, although there will be a cold front that moves SE through our area for Thursday and Friday. A strong cap in place (warm air aloft) low amounts of moisture and marginal instability should only result in very isolated shower/thunderstorm activity for later this week the way it looks now. Low temperatures for Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (September 1st-6th)

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible sometime between the 2nd-4th (Sunday-Tuesday) Otherwise it looks dry with near to above average temperatures through this period.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

-Latest maps for Tropical Storm Isaac per National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Warnings have been issued (red areas) from Louisiana, east to Western Florida. Blue areas represent where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

-Expected track and intensity of Isaac per NHC. Isaac is forecast to become a Hurricane as a potential Category 2 storm as it makes land fall Tuesday Evening into Wednesday. The center of Isaac is expected to pass over Southeast Louisiana or Southwest Mississippi. The track could change though.

Weather Tidbits:

-Low temperature of 67 degrees on August 25th is the warmest minimum temperature since July 16th (67 degrees) and the warmest low temperature so far for the month of August.

-4th Morning in a row with a low temperature of 60 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota (22nd-25th) Have to go back to (July 21st-26th) to find a longer streak at 6 days with a low temperature of 60 degrees or warmer.

A warm and dry late summer day with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Dew points have dropped off considerably Today compared to previous days with dews generally in the 40s and 50s This Afternoon. Gusty west or southwest winds at 10 to 25 mph affected the Northland Today as low pressure of 1004mb passes through Northern Ontario.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow is in place over the Upper Midwest as a strong upper level trough/low moves east through Central Canada with the tail end of that system affecting Northern portions of the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level ridge is in place across the Central-Southern Rockies into the Southwest U.S. while a SW flow covered the Western U.S. per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +14 to +18C in Minnesota.Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Monday Night (August 26th-27th)

A quiet weather pattern will continue in our area with high pressure in control. Clear-partly cloudy skies can be expected with patchy fog late Tonight and again late Monday Night. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Monday in the 70s and 80s. West, southwest, or northwest winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Tuesday through Thursday (August 28th-30th)

High pressure will be moving off to our east by mid-week with increasing southerly winds occurring on the back side of this high. A very warm pattern looks to set-up for the Upper Midwest as 850mb temperatures climb to between +20 and +28C for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s, however, it may be somewhat cooler closer to Lake Superior...especially on Wednesday. Low temperatures for Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. This period looks mainly dry, but a frontal boundary lurking near or over the Northland combined with some instability and moisture could trigger a stray shower/thunderstorm for Wednesday and Thursday.

Long Range Forecast (August 31st-September 5th)

Near to above average temperatures should continue during this period with at least a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms at times, especially during Labor Day weekend (September 1st-3rd)

Scattered showers did occur in some parts of the Northland Today as a weakening cold front moves into our area along with an upper level disturbance which moved NE out of the Central Plains. The showers that did occur really weren't that heavy though. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with highs in the 70s and 80s. It was another muggy day with dew points in the 60s with much drier upper 40s and 50s confined to Northwestern Minnesota (behind the cold front) Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper trough/low with 60 meter height falls is moving toward Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis. A west-southwest flow is in place over the Upper Midwest out ahead of this system. 850mb temperatures as of 8 PM ranged from +12 to +16C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (August 25th)

A weak cold front will move slowly south/east during the night, this front should reach Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota by dawn. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with areas of fog along with a few rain showers. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with west or south winds at up to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (August 26th)

Areas of fog and low clouds are forecast to burn off during the Morning hours with skies becoming partly cloudy by the Afternoon. Isolated rain showers are still possible from the Hayward Lakes to Phillips area in Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with dry weather elsewhere. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees, but a few spots in Northern Minnesota could drop into the 40s. Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (August 27th-29th)

This period looks dry at this time with warm temperatures, especially on Wednesday. High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest and Southern Canada for Monday-Tuesday, this high scoots off to the east by mid-week with increasing southerly winds occurring throughout the Upper Midwest. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with highs on Wednesday mainly in the 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for Monday Night with 50s for Tuesday Night.

Long Range Forecast (August 30th-September 4th)

Next Thursday looks very warm as 850mb temperatures climb to >+20C, this could lead to a few 90 degree temperatures in the Northland, especially if we see some sunshine. A cold front will settle south-east into our area later next week/weekend and a few showers or thunderstorms may develop near that boundary from August 30th-September 2nd, those rain chances are on the small side at the moment. Temperatures will be above to near seasonal average through this period.

Interesting! On August 15th, 2012 much of Minnesota was in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued later in the day, yet only 10 severe weather reports occurred per Storm Prediction Center. On August 23, 2012 portions of Minnesota were under a "See Text" which means only a marginal threat for any severe weather, no watches were issued, yet there was a total of 29 severe weather reports in Minnesota. We had more severe events on a non-slight risk/no watch day, versus a day where we had a watch and were under a slight severe weather risk. Go figure.

Weather Tidbits:

-Today is the 5th time this month and the 40th time in 2012 with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-High temperature of 86 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota Today is the warmest maximum temperature since the 1st of the this month (87F)

-Very impressive rainfall amounts in portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning. A few locations northeast and east of Duluth received 2.00-4.00"+ of rain last night.

A very warm late August day with high temperatures in the 80s to around 90 degrees with slightly cooler temperatures closer to the North Shore of Lake Superior and at the head of the lake. It was also quite muggy Today with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy and winds were out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper level low with 90-120 meter height falls covered parts of the Northern Rockies and Southwestern Canada with a W-SW flow occurring ahead of this system across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis. Another fairly strong disturbance is moving into West Kansas early This Evening. 850mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Western Minnesota to around +18C in the rest of the state.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (August 24th)

It's going to be a mild night with lows mainly in the 60s, but a few spots will likely fall into the 50s. Partly cloudy skies are expected and there could be some patchy fog Overnight. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly in Western-Northern parts of the Northland. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (August 25th)

A strong surface and upper level area of low pressure will pass well NW of our area while a cold front moves east and through the Northland from Tomorrow Afternoon into Tomorrow Night. The disturbance currently in Western Kansas will also track NE and into the Upper Midwest during this period.

A fairly moist environment will be in place on Saturday with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees. PWATS of 1.25-1.50" and 850mb dew points of +12 to +16C. It also looks fairly unstable with CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg, possibly a little higher depending on sky conditions. Lifted Indices are forecast to range from -2 to -5C.

The lift associated with the approaching cold front from the west and the disturbance from the southwest should result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the area during this period. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to the rich moisture in place.

The severe threat isn't the greatest, however, due to the stronger mid/upper level winds lagging behind the cold front. The stronger wind shear also looks to remain west of the cold front, so widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms could still develop Saturday Afternoon/Evening with gusty winds and hail.

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s with 60s in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds on Saturday will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Saturday Night will be from the west or south at 10 to 15 mph.

Note: Remember to be on the lookout for lightning with any thunderstorm on Saturday. When Thunder Roars Get Indoors! We don't want a repeat of what happened last Saturday in Duluth, Minnesota.

-Saturday's severe weather outlook per SPC. A 5% chance for damaging winds (58mph or greater) and large hail (1" in diameter or greater) for Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (August 26th-28th)

Looks like a quiet period with highs in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast (August 29th-September 3rd)

A very warm airmass could push into the region during the middle of next week. A cold front looks to pass through the area sometime between August 30th-September 1st with some cooling possible behind that boundary for Labor Day weekend (1st-3rd) Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period. The only real chance for a few showers or thunderstorms will be during the middle/end of next week (29th-31st) the way it looks now.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

A long lived thunderstorm, severe at times has been rolling NE along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeastern Minnesota since 2 PM. This storm has turned severe once again with a threat for hail up to the size of golf balls in Southwest Cook and East Central Lake County until 5 PM CDT per NWS.

Here's a few radar grabs of this severe thunderstorm from GR3.

With the upgrade to Dual Pol radar, one can detect where hail may be falling (red areas on this map)

-Here's another way one can detect where hail may be falling. This is the VIL radar. The deeper cores of reds and whites is a pretty good indication there's at least some hail dropping from the sky.

Several low pressure centers of 1006-1008mb were over the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Southwestern Canada as of 3 PM while a weak trough moves east out of Western Minnesota. A persistent warm air advection pattern along with a SW low level jet up to 40 knots has produced scattered showers Today in parts of our area. A few thunderstorms have also occurred, in fact one storm turned severe around 2 PM Today in Southeast St. Louis and Southwest Lake County. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in Downtown Duluth with mid 70s to low 80s common elsewhere. Dew points were in the 60-65 degree range. Winds Today were from the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow is in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper level disturbance working east through Minnesota per water vapor satellite imagery. A more potent upper level trough covered Southwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20C in Southwest Minnesota to +14 to +18C in the rest of Minnesota.Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest WisconsinTonight (August 23rd)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with scattered showers or thunderstorms. Late Afternoon meso-analysis showed CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg covering the Northland with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C. Lapse Rates were fairly steep and there was some weak amounts of wind shear along with a decent 850mb jet in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The overall threat for severe weather remains low This Evening, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out during the Evening with the main threats from hail and strong winds. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (August 24th)

Today's disturbance exits to our east on Friday while a cold front heads east through the Northern Plains. Our area will be in between those 2 systems Tomorrow with partly to mostly sunny skies expected. Highs will be in the 80s and there's even a chance that a few spots could top 90 degrees. It looks mainly dry on Friday, but lingering instability may be enough to pop a hit or miss shower/thunderstorm in spots. By Friday Night, the cold front over the Dakotas may result in some showers or thunderstorms reaching the Western-Northern parts of the Northland. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (August 25th-27th)

A cold front will be moving through the region from Saturday into early Sunday with a separate disturbance lifting NE out of the Central Plains. A fairly moist airmass will be in place in our area on Saturday with dew points in the 60s and PWATS of 1.25-1.75". It also looks like it will be somewhat unstable with CAPE approaching 1500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C. Showers or thunderstorms are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Saturday and Saturday Night due to the approaching cold front and also from the disturbance to our south. Dry weather looks to return for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s for Saturday and Sunday with mainly 70s on Monday. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Saturday Night and 40s and 50s for Sunday Night.Long Range Forecast (August 28th-September 2nd)

A low pressure system with a warm front and cold front is forecast to affect the Northland between Wednesday-Friday (August 29-31) Showers or thunderstorms are possible as this system moves through. Dry weather is forecast next Tuesday (28th) and for next weekend September 1-2. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal averages during this period.

*Moderate drought covers 36% of the state this week, up from 34% last week.

*Severe drought covers 17% of the state this week which is unchanged from one week ago.

*Extreme drought covers 0.24% of the state this week, down from 0.25% last week.

-Drought monitor map for Wisconsin as of August 21st, 2012. Northern parts of the state is doing fine in the short term, the worst conditions remain in the Southern half of the Badger state.

For the Midwest:

*Moderate drought has decreased from 66% last week to 51% this week.
*Severe drought remains the same as last week, 51%.
*Extreme drought remains at 35% this week.
*Exceptional drought has dropped slightly from 8% last week to 7% this week.

Additional rainfall amounts of 9-12" are needed to get back to average in Northwest and Northern Minnesota, while Northwestern Wisconsin needs 3-6" of additional rain to get back to average.

-Long term palmer drought severity index ending on August 18th, 2012.

Drought tidbits:

-8 states in the U.S. are drought free this week, they include: Washington state, Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

-Here's the latest seasonal drought outlook issued on August 16th, 2012...This is valid through November 30th, 2012. Looking better for the drought areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin where improving drought conditions are forecast by the Climate Prediction Center.

A warm late August day in the Northland with partly cloudy to sunny skies. Highs were mainly in the 80s which is around 10 degrees above average for the 22nd of August. Dewpoints weren't too high as they stayed mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Spotty showers did occur for a time late This Afternoon in Pine County Minnesota, otherwise it was a dry day.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow is in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper low to our NE in Hudson Bay while an upper level trough covered much of the Southern U.S., Ohio Valley, Eastern Great Lakes, and Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from around +18C in Northern Minnesota to +20 to +22C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (August 22nd)

Two boundaries near our area Tonight, one will be centered along the Minnesota-Ontario border and the other down in Western/Southern areas of Minnesota. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop at times across the Northland Tonight with weak instability in place along with a low level jet <30 15="15" 50s="50s" 5="5" 60s.="60s." and="and" are="are" at="at" be="be" cloudy="cloudy" east="east" forecast="forecast" in="in" knots.="knots." lows="lows" mph.="mph." nbsp="nbsp" of="of" or="or" out="out" p="p" partly-mostly="partly-mostly" skies="skies" south="south" the="the" to="to" will="will" winds="winds" with="with">Thursday and Thursday Night (August 23rd)

Pretty much a similar setup as Tonight with a stationary front to our north while a warm front and upper level disturbance lifts E/NE out of the Northern Plains, and Western/Southern parts of Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. It does look like will have somewhat higher values of instability and moisture developing in the Northland on Thursday with dew points ranging from 57-64 degrees with PWATS of 1.00-1.30". CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg is forecast to develop with Lifted Indices from -2 to -5C. Wind shear will be pretty weak, and the winds aloft also look meager, but there will be a low level jet blowing at 25-35 knots and that could aid in the formation of some scattered storms on Thursday. Not a real big severe risk, but an isolated stronger thunderstorm is certainly possible, especially Thursday Afternoon-Evening.

Lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm and brief downpours can't be ruled out either. REMEMBER, when thunder roars get indoors!!!

Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s, although an isolated 90 degree temperature is possible depending on sky conditions. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

-5% chance for severe thunderstorms in all but Northeast and Southeast Minnesota for Thursday per Storm Prediction Center.

Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (August 24th-26th)

Looks pretty warm Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s, perhaps even a few 90s, especially on Friday. A strong area of low pressure will pass well NW of Minnesota this weekend while a cold front heads east out of the Northern Plains, passing through the Northland between late Saturday Afternoon and Sunday Morning. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop on Friday with a better chance for showers or thunderstorms occurring for Saturday into Saturday Night. Sunday looks dry at this time. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures for Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (August 27th-September 1st)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period. A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected for early next week (27th-28th) Low pressure and it's warm front and cold front looks to affect the Upper Midwest between the 29th-31st, this system could bring unsettled weather conditions to the region.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible after Midnight. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Partly sunny. High 78 to 83, cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

-Rainfall forecast for 7 PM Wednesday through 7 PM Thursday per HPC. The bulk of the rain that this map is showing in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin looks to fall late Wednesday Night or else on Thursday.

Note: On this date in 2004: A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

A picture perfect summer day with sunny to partly cloudy skies, low humidity, gentle winds, and warm temperatures. Highs were in the mid 70s to low 80s with southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with a few stronger gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

The flow aloft is more out of the northwest Today vs. the N-NW, result from this is for a push of milder air which is moving east out of the Northern Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +14 to +18C in Minnesota.Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest WisconsinTonight through Wednesday Night (August 21st-22nd)
High pressure will be centered to our E-SE with low pressure to our west, a warm front near the Minnesota-Iowa border, and a cold front to our north in Southern Ontario. All is quiet Tonight with clear-partly cloudy skies, lows will be in the 40s and 50s with patchy late night fog. High temperatures on Wednesday will warm into the 80s with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s and 60s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop by Wednesday Night as moisture and instability start to increase in the Northland. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 15 mph Tonight with south or east winds Wednesday and Wednesday Night at 10 to around 20 mph.Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (August 23rd-25th)

Looks a bit humid and unstable during this period with a low pressure trough to our west, this system will eventually move into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Can't rule out some showers or thunderstorms in our area with the better chances occurring on Thursday and Saturday the way it looks now. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s from Thursday-Saturday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (August 26th-31st)

Sunday-Tuesday (26-28) may turn out to be fairly quiet in the Northland with the period from the 29th-31st possibly turning a little more active as a system moves east out of the Western U.S. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period. 5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

Another nice summer day with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs were mainly in the 70s with west or northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. There's been a few passing showers at times in parts of Northeast Minnesota, Western Lake Superior, and far Northwest Wisconsin Today, but the majority of the area stayed dry Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A 500mb ridge was over the Southwest U.S. while an upper level trough covered Central-Eastern Canada, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from +10 to +14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night (August 20th-21st)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather during this period as it slides off to our south/east. Clear to partly cloudy skies will be the rule with isolated showers in Northeast Minnesota and far Northern Wisconsin ending before 8 PM Tonight. The rest of this period looks dry. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s once again in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures Tuesday Night mainly in the 50s. Winds will become southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (August 22nd-24th)

A couple low pressure systems and frontal boundaries will be moving into the Upper Midwest by way of the Northern Plains and Southern Canada. An increase in moisture and instability could lead to some showers or thunderstorms in the Northland, especially by Thursday and Friday the way it looks now. High temperatures during this period will be in the 70s and 80s with low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (August 25th-30th)

The potential for some more showers or thunderstorms looks to continue this weekend into early next week, August 25th-28th with calmer weather conditions possible by the 29th-30th. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.

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About Me

I have a huge passion for weather, I enjoy forecasting and studying weather patterns. I've been keeping track of weather since the early 1990's. I also enjoy storm chasing, photography, dirt track racing (Superior Speedway) spending time outdoors, walking, biking. My favorite seasons are Spring and Summer. I'm a huge sports fan as well, Packers are the best team in the NFL!