April 06, 2016

LSAC and Predicting Applicants for 2016-17, Part 17

The LSAC is reporting that "As of 04/01/16, there are 318,460 applications submitted by 48,934 applicants for the 2016–2017 academic year. Applicants are up 1.3% and applications are up 1.6% from 2015–2016. Last year at this time, we had 87% of the preliminary final applicant count." Based on this preliminary data, one would predict that there will be around 56,246 applicants for 2016-17.

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Auto industry analysts predict between 17.1 million to 17.3 million new vehicle sales in the US market this year, lead by CUV's, SUV's and trucks. FCA-Chrysler announced layoffs 1500 workers at its 200 mid-size car plant in Michigan due to slowing sales.

I don't think that there will be 7,300 more applicants this year. The last 5 years have witnessed late-cycle bumps that cannot continue indefinitely. These are a departure from the historical norm.

I think we see maybe 4,000 to 5,000 more applicants this cycle. Too much bad and accurate information out there now to attract the sub-150 LSAT full freight, third tier late applicant. Same person could get money next year from someone if he/she applies in January. It's also an election year, so there are reasonable alternatives to law school for the public-minded do gooder (read: 50 percent of 0Ls). "Aunt Sally, I don't know exactly what I'll do with my poli sci and philosophy degrees long term, maybe law, but I'm going to make America great again/feel the Bern for the next six months and then try to work in Washington."

There is nothing wrong with the "public-minded do-gooder." That should be encouraged. After all, our President began his career as a community organizer. There is nothing wrong either with attendance at a ranked lower tier law school. Law School is a great education for understanding the nuts and bolts of our systems. As long as law schools are upfront and tell students that a JD and bar passage are no longer vehicles to a sustainable middle class income and stop with the advertising puffery it's ok. The problem is, many law schools, including the author of this post on this Blog----we are now at #17 still views law students as MONEY and SALES regardless of the market or condition of the profession.

Jojo, if it's 5k more, that's a 3% decrease. That's a pretty huge swing and hard to imagine. I don't care one way or another what the numbers are, but there's no evidence to suggest such a swing.

One thing to look at would be to see over the last X years, what percentage of applicants had applied as of a variety of dates? If playing the prediction game, that would be more instructive than just using last year's data.

The late applicant trend has gone on since 2011. incentives driving such late apps were discounts and ramped up marketing. The last 5 years, though, have seen schools get more professional in their marketing efforts. The low hanging fruit of dissatisfied people in the workforce or the underemployed have largely been picked in past years.

The most recent LSAT data has been out for a couple weeks.

Who are the 7,300 people who we expect to apply after April 1 for August admission? June LSAT takers?

There will be some late apps. I will be surprised if the number exceeds 5,000. In an election year there are a lot of fun work alternatives to law school for recent grads who are policy minded. I think being a 22 year old GOTV worker on a national campaign or a congressional one is an attractive alternative to the "I graduate in 6 weeks and don't know what to do with my life" angst that serves as a dinner bell to the sharks in law school admissions.

In short, this year unlike the last 8 years, will see two political parties slugging it out well into the late spring in presidential primaries. An ambitious grad can find easy volunteer work with a campaign and have a reasonable alternative to law school in August 2016.