The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Late Monday Update

First of all, a big thanks to everyone as we had our biggest day yet. Almost 19,000 pageviews!! An utterly amazing number. Seriously, I'm speechless. Thank you. I'm glad you're all enjoying this forum.
Second, I apologize for the infrequency of posts today. We are opening another business this week and it is taking a lot of time. This entire week will be busy but I'll try to post as often as possible.

After the disgusting shenanigans in the silver market this afternoon, price has rebounded about 30 cents or so from the lows. As you know by now, I like to study charts at night to look for clues that might foreshadow the next move. I found two things for you to consider. First, let's re-visit our old friend, the USDX. Recall last week how the "umbrella" formation we found accurately predicted a rather significant drop all the way to 79 on the Mar11 contract. We expected a bounce from there and then some consolidation and, well, whaddayaknow, we got just that. Now, the question is, what's next? Take a look at the updated chart:

Rarely will you see a more perfect umbrella. I had a hunch we'd rally back to 79.80 or so and we made it to 79.73 very early this morning. That's close enough and if we keep failing now and trending lower, the 79.02 low of last Friday will give way and from there we'll head to 78.50 in short order. From there its down to 78 and even 77. Well, you can imagine that this might be rather constructive to PM prices so watch the 79 level very closely.

Next up, take look at a 5-minute Mar11 silver chart:

The afterhours whackjob is plain to see but note the action since. Silver seems to be struggling with the 30.80-85 level for some reason. Let's watch this overnight because, if it begins to roll over, we'll most certainly see 30.60 again and maybe 30.50. Blythe could then whip up the monkeys for another 8:25 beatdown and we could end up making a run back down to 30.20-40 by 8:35.
On the other hand, if the BoS can bust us back through 30.85, we'll be back above 31 before I hit REM.

33 comments:

Also, the Canadian Markets are opening back up again, so it should bring some new volume? I know at least the miners should be doing good with new money to be invested... this should apply to silver and gold as well I would imagine.

As soon as the manipulation fails to work, this bull is going to get to a point of no return. Right now the bull is staring down Blythe Masters... learning from every missed charge. Soon enough the "red button" that keeps this bull in check will no longer fool the angry beast.-You have fantastic chart analysis, I have most of more informed friends reading your blog. Keep the good work up, your 19,000 views is by no chance.

I am also talking about these topics and much more about political actions that need to happen in order to hopefully restore our republic (after the inevitable crash).-http://thehardrightedge.com--

It is a great tool in revolution to have bloggers such as yourself, Turd. Your insight undoubtedly one day may shift markets :)-Scott J

This is so stupid, I can't believe it^^I am really in doubt whether I should start trying to make money on this. It's just too stupid, and I this amount of stupidity is simply unbearable for one person.

I once lost in Poker against my (then new) girlfriend who worked hard on a really innocent and stupid table image just to rip me off 2h later when I was convinced it was her first time plying poker. Is Blythe like my girlfriend?

Righteo, I've set myself up a (CFD-based) Options account. Would anyone be kind enough to run through a quick equation with me to show me how to work out potential yields? I mean a very simple equation. Let's say one contract of a 3060 March call, the buy price was 5, costing me $250. If I called it at 3100, what would I come out with in dollars?

I'm very sorry to ask such a cheeky question, but I'm finding it difficult to find these answers!

The most recent main post from Turd on the blog's page (tfmetals.blogspot.com) is always at the top. The comments are in chronological order, with oldest at the top, most recent on the bottom (as you can see).

Thanks for the responses everyone. And yes, the reason I'm interested in options is because at least I know that my losses are going to be fixed. I have since learned that these cheap silver options are just dailies, so not quite as attractive as I'd first thought. Damn! Still, the longer term gold ones look fairly attractive.

Blythe helped me greatly by letting me switch shares of TRE and GDXJ out of my IRA into my Roth. The thing is that i truly love being draped in precious metals so if they go Blyth's barf way, I'll just close the account and but jewelry.

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About Me

"Turd Ferguson" has been involved in the securites "industry" for over 20 years. He first received his NASD licenses in June of 1990. Ultimately disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial planning", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent handle on the PM "markets". You can reach The Turd by email at tfmetalsreport@gmail.com. If you are polite and not an AGA, he will probably answer you in short order.

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All content at this website http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice (because it is, most assuredly, not), nor is it at all intended to be taken as such.

The commentary and other contents simply reflects the opinion of The Turd alone on the current and future status of the markets, various economies and world events. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered there.

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