April 06,
2013 "Information
Clearing House" -
The intensifying war of words between North Korea, the United
States and ally South Korea could ignite a major conflict. The
likely trigger would be a small clash at sea, in the air, or
along the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.

What would
a war in Korea look like?

First,
nuclear conflict is unlikely. North Korea is not believed to
have any long or medium-ranged nuclear weapons, certainly none
that could hit North America. North Korea might be able to
strike South Korea with a nuclear device. But then US nuclear
weapons would wipe North Korea off the map.

North
Korea’s military strategy would be to launch a surprise attack
on the south to occupy Seoul and Inchon. The vital US Air Force
bases at Osan and Kunsan, and eight South Korean air bases,
would be primary targets.

North
Korea’s elite 88,000 special forces units are tasked to attack
and neutralize these air bases as well as headquarters,
communication nodes, and munitions depots of the US and Republic
of Korea (ROK) forces.

Barrages
of North Korean conventional missiles would hit these bases and
command hubs, possibly with chemical warheads.

Special
North Korean amphibious units would land and strike these
targets from the sea. North Korea has 300 old Soviet-era AN-2
biplanes that carry ten commandos each. Invisible to radar
because they are made of fabric and hug the earth, the AN-2’s
would air assault suicide squads into US and ROK airbases.

Other
North Korean special forces are tasked with attacking US bases
in Okinawa, Japan and as far off as Guam, where the US is
installing its new THAAD anti-missile system.

North
Korea has developed potent electronic warfare capability that
would degrade US/South Korean communications and online targets.

Meanwhile,
14,000 North Korean heavy guns and rocket batteries dug into
caves behind the DMZ could pour storms of shells or rockets per
hour onto US/ROK positions south of the DMZ. North Korea’s 170mm
guns and 240mm rockets have a range of 50 and 45 km
respectively. Large parts of Seoul would be heavily damaged.

North
Korea has about 700,000 soldiers within 150km of the DMZ, with
another 400,000 in backup echelons further north. These
divisions would fight their way south through South Korea’s
‘Maginot Line,’ seven parallel lines of anti-tank ditches,
minefields, and high earth walls surmounted by tanks (South
Korea denies it exists, but I have seen it).

In spite
of intense air attacks by the US and ROK, the North Korean
offensive could likely reach at least as far south of Seoul,
only an hour’s drive from the DMZ.

US
retaliation would be ferocious. US and ROK warplanes would
quickly attain air superiority over the entire peninsula. North
Korea’s 70 airbases would be obliterated and its obsolescent air
force quickly neutralized. The North Korean surface fleets would
share a similar fate. US warplanes would pound North Korea’s
command and control, communications, rail lines, bridges and
factories not buried underground.

During the
1950-53 Korean War, US B-29 heavy bombers literally flattened
North Korea. That’s why North Korea reacted so furiously when US
B-52 heavy bombers and B-2 Stealth bombers skirted its borders
late last month, triggering off this latest crisis. The B-2 can
deliver the fearsome ‘MOAB’ 30,000 lb. bomb called “the Mother
of All Bombs” designed to destroy deep underground command hq’s
(read Kim Jon-un’s bunker) and underground nuclear facilities.

Since the
1950’s, the North Koreans have buried much of their
military-industrial complex and continue to train their ground
forces in small unit, off-the-road tactics. The North also has a
militia of 1.6 million to defend key targets and factories.

Unless the
US uses tactical nuclear weapons, it will be difficult to defeat
North Korea. Doing so means invading North Korea, a risky
operation that might invite Chinese intervention, as it did in
1950. Moreover, US ground and air forces are bogged down in
Afghanistan and the Mideast, their equipment is run down, and
the US Treasury out of money.

The
Pentagon estimated a full-scale invasion of North Korea could
cost 250,000 American casualties. In short, a real war, not the
jolly little police actions launched by the US in Afghanistan,
Iraq and Somalia.

Eric S.
Margolis is an award-winning, internationally syndicated
columnist. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, the
International Herald Tribune the Los Angeles Times, Times of
London, the Gulf Times, the Khaleej Times, Nation – Pakistan,
Hurriyet, – Turkey, Sun Times Malaysia and other news sites in
Asia. http://ericmargolis.com

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