Public will back Holm because of Rousey win, but de Randamie the play

The UFC is set to unveil its newest weight division when the promotion returns to New York this Saturday night. The Backless Center in Brooklyn plays host to UFC 208 and with it the launch of the women’s featherweight division.

Until now the bantamweight division and it’s 135-pound limit was the heaviest weight class for women competing inside the UFC. But that all changes when the first 145-pound women’s champion gets crowned by emerging victorious in the scheduled main event.

The two women trying to secure the first featherweight strap are former 135-pound titlist Holly Holm (10-2) and Germaine de Randamie (6-3). Bookmakers initially installed both fighters at -110, but money on de Randamie has her currently listed as a -130 betting favorite.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line drop some as casual bettors start making their way to the window. Having been the first to defeat Ronda Rousey, coupled with already having captured UFC gold, makes Holm the much better recognized of the two in this fight.

Rest assured hardcore fight fans are already well acquainted with de Randamie, who is a former world champion in kick boxing and Muay Thai. In fact, she holds the women’s record for consecutive victories (37).

Bottom line, both fighters are much more comfortable and skilled at striking than grappling. Therefore it would come as a surprise to see the outcome determined on the mat. Instead, we should expect to see some very high level boxing, kick boxing, and Muay Thai throughout the bout.

Simply put, I agree with the way the line is currently moving… and believe it’s still not high enough.

Holm is undoubtedly the most accomplished boxer in mixed martial arts and she’s added a solid kicking game to her arsenal, making her one of the sport’s most dangerous strikers. She enters the Octagon off back-to-back losses and at 35 years of age, finds herself in an almost “must win” situation in order to remain relevant. It seems so long ago since she defeated Rousey and the swagger gained from that devastating knockout doesn’t seem to be there now.

For Germaine, this is exactly the type of matchup that should allow her to showcase her world class striking. “The Iron Lady” is extremely efficient and accurate, landing 44% of strikes, while defending against 71%. Her greatest advantage in this title fight should come in the clinch, with her edge in strength and Muay Thai background.

Finally, this is one of those betting situations where we can “get the best of it” by taking advantage of Holm’s fame. The probability for victory is much greater than the -130 asking price to back the favorite in this spot.

I look for de Randamie to be the first to wear the 145-pound title around her waist and the price is right to back that opinion up with cash.