Nakasone Betting The House On Future

June 08, 1986|By Ronald E. Yates, Chicago Tribune.

TOKYO — When Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone dissolved parliament last week in preparation for national elections July 6, it represented the beginning of a major gamble for the premier and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

If the LDP increases its majority in both the Lower and Upper House, the outcome virtually will assure Nakasone of an unprecedented third term as prime minister. But both Nakasone and his party will be in political limbo if the LDP loses seats or fails to gain a respectable number.

That also would mean an end to Nakasone`s political career--a career that began in 1947 when he ran for the first of his 14 terms in the Lower House and became, at age 28, the youngest representative in Japanese history.

Although as a Lower House member, Nakasone often was critical of the American occupation of his country, today he is viewed as the strongest ally the United States ever has had here.

The so-called ``Ron-Yasu`` relationship between the 68-year-old prime minister and the 75-year-old Ronald Reagan has elevated relations between the two nations to the most cooperative level ever despite unprecedented trade friction between them.

``The Americans will hate to see Nakasone go,`` a West German diplomat said. ``He is their Margaret Thatcher (the British prime minister) of the Far East.``

Of course, Nakasone is far from gone. Indeed, his ability to force political rivals within the LDP to go along with his plan to dissolve the Diet (parliament), so risky dual elections could be held next month, is an indication of his power within the party.

It is also a reflection of his immense popularity among the Japanese people. Recent polls have given him a 65 percent approval rating and Nakasone obviously is using that support to force his will within the party.

Members of Japan`s opposition parties accuse Nakasone and the LDP leadership of trying to perpetuate ``dynasty politics`` in Japan. The opposition also was critical of Nakasone`s dissolution of both houses of the Diet and call for dual elections, saying such an act normally is reserved for a national crisis and not for a prime minister seeking a third term or a ruling party seeking to strengthen its parliamentary majority.

Should Nakasone`s decision to hold elections next month result in more LDP seats in both houses of the Diet, it not only would end mounting interparty opposition against him but force the LDP to alter party rules so he can have a third term as prime minister.

Under current party rules, only the president of the LDP can become prime minister and nobody is allowed more than two consecutive terms as party president. In Japan, the prime minister is elected by parliament and the party that controls the majority of seats automatically elects its candidate prime minister.

Thus, in order for Nakasone to become prime minister for a third two-year term, his rivals and their powerful factions within the LDP will have to agree to alter party rules, probably in October when Nakasone is due to step down.

``It all depends on next month`s elections,`` the German diplomat said.

``If Nakasone and the LDP do well, then I don`t think there is any question that he will get his third term. But if the LDP does badly . . .``

The LDP, which has ruled this nation of 120 million throughout its postwar history,maintains a bare two-seat majority (257 of 511 seats) in the powerful Lower House by virtue of an uneasy coalition with a tiny splinter party called the New Liberal Club. In the less politically potent 252-seat Upper House, the LDP maintains a comfortable 11-seat majority.

Most political analysts in Tokyo say that the number of Lower House seats will have to increase to at least 271 before any consideration will be given to altering party rules on Nakasone`s behalf. By winning at least 271 seats, the LDP will be able to control chairmanships in crucial committees and be in a position to appoint the speaker of the Lower House.

However, some LDP insiders say that Nakasone will have to bring in 280 seats in order to claim any kind of victory. And if the LDP captures less than 260 seats, Nakasone probably will be asked to step down.

Should the LDP`s total in the Lower House dip below 256, the party would lose its majority position in the Diet and be forced into a coalition government. That would mean that for the first time since the end of World War II, the LDP would no longer be in sole control of Japan`s destiny.

Such a development could spell trouble for Washington. The next-largest party in Japan is the Japan Socialist Party with 110 Lower House seats, followed by Komeito (Clean Government Party) with 59, the Democratic Socialist Party with 37 and the Japan Communist Party with 27.

Each of those opposition parties has been highly critical of Nakasone`s program of boosting defense spending and of Japan`s increasing military ties with the U.S. Some 40,000 American military personnel are based in Japan and Japan has begun, at Washington`s behest, to increase its responsibility for patrolling sea lanes as far as 1,000 nautical miles from the Japanese mainland.

The prospect of a coalition government sends shivers up the spines of both Japanese government officials and American diplomats in Tokyo.

``That`s a worst-case scenario,`` said one diplomat. ``We don`t like to think about it.``