Visualizing "The Future According to You"

The Uncertain Future is a future technology and world-modeling project by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. Its goal is to allow those interested in future technology to form their own rigorous, mathematically consistent model of how the development of advanced technologies will affect the evolution of civilization over the next hundred years. To facilitate this, we have gathered data on what experts think is going to happen, in such fields as semiconductor development, biotechnology, global security, Artificial Intelligence and neuroscience. We invite you, the user, to read about the opinions of these experts, and then come to your own conclusion about the likely destiny of mankind.

How to use our system to draw your picture of the future:

We'll ask you a sequence of questions aimed at getting your
answer to the question: "When will human-level AI be
invented?" We'll model your beliefs in four parts:

Is human-level AI possible in principle?

Assuming business as usual (no nuclear or other
catastrophes, and no brain-boosting methods that seriously
speed up research), how long until human-level AI?