Interestingly, McCain wants to run against Huckabee because he's an evangelical, while Huckabee wants to run against McCain because he's hated by evangelicals.

(NYTimes) "Clinton advisers said Friday that they would not mount a negative advertising campaign..., saying the primary was too soon for such an onslaught to have any effect." (Not because of the morality, but because it wouldn't work.)

The Obama "movement"

(Cilizza) The line snaked for at least a half mile from the entrance of Nashua North High School. The first people in it had arrived at 7:30 a.m. -- two-and-a-half hours before Barack Obama was scheduled to start speaking. One woman had driven from West Hartford, Conn. The crowd was estimated at 3,000 and looked every bit of that number.

Anecdotally bad for Clinton

From the decidedly anti-Clinton Swampland, a Democratic dinner in NH was overrun by boisterous Obama supporters who wildly cheered their candidate and twice booed Clinton. (Politico version)

Here's the new Clinton line of attack, "an untested man who offers false hope or a woman who's electable."

Just 3 days out from NH voting, she needs to get her legs back, and fast. The debate tonight will be huge.

(Also: Notable in relation to last night's post on the generational difference among staff and consultants, both the NYTimes and WaPo carry insider criticisms of Clinton senior strategist (and "microtrend expert") Mark Penn.)

"Change"

The main thing that comes through clearly from last night's caucuses is that the majority of the country fervently wants change after seven years of George Bush.

Starting with the GOP, the mainstream GOP, the segment that still approves of Bush, just can't get excited about anything at this point, but the "fringes," those who don't approve of George Bush came out in force.

The decisive Huckabee win definitively marks a moment of empowerment/rage by the Christian right who are seizing on the weakness of the mainline GOP to claim their space at the table.

But I don't think we should view these results through only that prism. Ron Paul (Ron Paul!) pulled 10% from a constituency which, although smaller, is perhaps more passionately anti-Bush/GOP.

Effectively, half of the GOP caucusgoers rejected the mainline candidates and positions of their party.

On the Dem side, the desire for "change" from this administration is overwhelming everything else, and for whatever reason, Obama has become the embodiment of that desire.

How does Clinton combat that? You can argue that her positions are better or that her experience is valuable, but in the end, she's found herself on the wrong side of that overwhelming Dem desire for change, and reversing that in a month will be a very difficult task.

The other real question going forward is whether the Edwards voters, which will become available as his campaign dissembles, want the traditional Dem in Clinton who is talking specifically about their issues, or whether they too were driven to Edwards by his different flavor of "change."

Obviously, Iowa's only one primary in a small state that has historically not ended up supporting the eventual winners, but I'm struck by the "change" message out of Iowa.

We're no longer a country that appears with torches and pitchforks outside the castles of our leaders to voice our displeasure, but in its own way, that was the message out of Iowa. Whether it was the Evangelicals, the Paulites, or the legions of new supporters who showed up at the Dem caucuses, they were all expressing a very passionate desire for "change."

Game Day

Al Hakim (subtly) repositions himself

If you've been watching the subtle positioning within Iraqi politics, this AP story is a must read. SIIC leader Al Hakim, leader of the main constituent bloc of the Maliki government, has repositioned himself in slight opposition to the Maliki government on the Sunni militias, and gently criticized Maliki on core issues to the broader Shia population, refugees, Shia reconstruction, the empty cabinet seats and generally ineffective government.

It's too broad to excerpt effectively, but if you read this carefully, you get the sense of a big change in a very small step. Al Hakim is obviously feeling pressure from the Shia street over SIIC support for Maliki. (and I assume that sentiment is pushing towards Sadr.)

It's also interesting to note the way he's stringing along the Sunni militias to maintain their "morale." He doesn't want them in the security forces any more than the other Shia, but he must be feeling their "loyalty" beginning to slip away.

Predictions on Iowa? I really have no idea.

On the Dem side, I can make a case for any of the top three winning. In my estimation, it comes down to two questions: Does Obama get the big independent/new voter turnout? And do we see "second choice voters" break anti-Clinton?

As a prediction, I'm going to pick Obama because he seems to have the momentum and, my guess, more "second choice" voters, but my sense is that the Clinton campaign is running a far more effective machine rooted more firmly in the traditional Iowa establishment and knowing how to play the caucus game has historically won.

(An underspun element of the Edwards argument is that rural areas are slightly overweighted in the caucus system. Those areas aren't going to see an influx of new caucusgoers, and it's the area he's targeting in his new anti-corporate tone.)

On the Republican side, Romney seems to have hit a hard ceiling of support at around 30%. The key for Romney to win is if the non-Romney vote spreads out among other candidates besides Huckabee. This, I would argue was the goal of his "negative campaign," not specifically to win voters from Huckabee, but to keep the non-Romney vote from coalescing solely on Huckabee.

Update: I changed my mind. I think I'm going to pick Romney. I think the enthusiasm for Huckabee has been fading among those outside the religious right, and there's some evidence that Romney's been pouring even more money into his organization.

(But, let's remember that the GOP is a party where a clear majority still approve of George Bush, and people who are willing to homeschool and willing to go to school board meetings to push creationism will be more than willing to go to caucus.)

Political bits

There are roughly 3 million people in Iowa. Less than 250,000 are expected to caucus.

(NYTimes) As part of his final push, "John Edwards says that if elected president he would withdraw the American troops who are training the Iraqi army and police as part of a broader plan to remove virtually all American forces within 10 months."

(AP) As part of her final push, "Clinton has bought two minutes of air time on the early evening local newscasts in every media market in the state." (Also ABC.)

The growing analysis of a permanent Republican split

There seems to be a burgeoning line of analysis that the splits within the GOP field represent the baseline fractures within the Republican coalition. Huckabee represents the religious, Romney the business, Thompson the low taxers, Giuliani and McCain the national defense.

I don't know that I fully buy the premise that these fractures are as deep or as longstanding as some of these analyses tend to present, but the splits are certainly more evident than they have been in the recent past which I would credit it to a party under pressure, each segment trying to reclaim their slice of "the Reagan legacy" as the core of reenergizing their party.

Also, (WaPo) "Pakistani authorities have pressured the medical personnel who tried to save Benazir Bhutto's life to remain silent about what happened in her final hour and have removed records of her treatment from the facility, according to doctors....."

(CNN) "Minallah told CNN that he was speaking out because the doctors at the hospital were "threatened."

Polling means nothing in Iowa, but.....

Because of the crazy caucus system, with turnout issues and the reallocation of minor candidate voters on the Dem side (19% in this poll), polling in Iowa is highly inaccurate. However, the Des Moines Register poll is something of a conventional wisdom setter.

Reading this, I am more convinced that the key will be the Obama field operation. How good are the local captains? Can they manage turnout? Will they be able to convince the 19% of minor candidate supporters to reallocate and come and stand with the independents, youth, and Republicans?

What's the spin if Obama wins based on non-Democrats?

It's really all up in the air.

Later: It should be noted that this poll stands in contrast to the majority of polls which have showed a slight but growing Clinton lead. I'm mentioning this one because it carries more weight and sets the media's CW.

Monday, December 31, 2007

Picture of the Day - 2

Standing in front of a banner meant to launch his new attack ads in Iowa, Huckabee, in the face of harsh media questions, changes his mind and vows not to attack, but shows the ad anyway.

(Fox) The reporters burst into laughter when Huckabee said he would now show the ad that he said he wasn't going to launch.

(Politico) "After it became clear that he was not going to air the ad on Iowa television, but would still preview it here, the press corps offered a collective laugh in plain recognition of what Huckabee was up to."

(Politico) "Charmaine Yoest, a top aide to the former governor, said after the press conference that she didn't know about Huckabee's decision to not air the ads until shortly before the event and that there hadn't been time to take down the signs."

(CNN) "If the ad ends up airing on Iowa TV stations, it will be because the stations have not yet had a chance to replace it in their schedules, Huckabee said."

Dirty politics - Is there anything the GOP won't stoop to?

An anonymous "holiday card" "that falsely claims to be from "the Romney family" and highlights Mitt Romney's Mormon faith was anonymously sent to Republican mailboxes across South Carolina earlier this week."

Quickhits - Happy "Saddam Day."

(AP) One year ago today, Saddam was executed. (Did someone get the President a cake?)

(BBC) Mansoor Dadullah "fired" by the Taleban? This Dadullah was in charge of military operations in Helmand, Kandahar, and other southern provinces. No reason given. (Maybe it has to do with the two Brits who were recently expelled from Afghanistan for talking with the Taleban in Helmand? Maybe Dadullah was their "target?")

(Telegraph) "Two European diplomats accused of holding secret talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan were thrown out of the country following a complaint by the US."

(NYTimes) Al Qaeda has turned its focus against the Pakistani government and is seeing an unflow of Pakistani fighters. (How can you write this article and not mention the months old Bin Laden tape where he says they will target Pakistan?)

(CNN) "Across her home province of Sindh, protesters outraged at Bhutto's killing burned election offices, where voter rolls and ballot boxes are kept, potentially derailing preparations for the vote, according to media reports."

(AP) "...the country's ruling party said crucial Jan. 8 elections would likely be delayed up to four months."

(Same article) "Iraq's leader, meanwhile, flew to London today for what an aide said was a routine medical checkup. Prime Minister Nouri Maliki... decided to take advantage of the recent ebb in violence to make the trip and was expected back within days, said Yasin Majeed, a media advisor."

(AFP) "The son of Sunni leader Adnan al-Dulaimi and one of his guards have been linked to explosives found in a house in Baghdad, Iraqi military spokesman Brigadier General Qassim Ata said on Saturday."

Political bits - Huckabee bites back.

It looks like Mike Huckabee is feeling the damage from the Romney attacks. He starts firing back with an ad saying "enough is enough."

(NYTimes) But maybe he's not so above the fray, "If a person is dishonest in his approach to get the job, do you believe he will be honest in telling you the truth when he does gets the job?,” Mr. Huckabee said at a campaign stop in Osceola, Iowa..."

Here's one of the Romney attacks that's pretty unbelievable. (Politico) Romney sends out a mailer with a Huckabee "Get out of jail free" card.

And, (Politico) the pro-Huckabee 527 "Trust Huckabee" (not coordinated with the campaign, right?) puts up an ad in Iowa that just happens to echo the theme.

(In comparison, (WaPo) it looks like there will be no "truly negative" ads on the Democratic side in Iowa. (Is part of the reason that Dems feel broadly positive towards all their candidates while the Republican candidates field so many negatives?))

Saturdays and Sundays

About This Blog

This is not the America I was brought up to believe in.
This blog seeks to highlight abuse of power, deception, corruption, and just plain bad ideas in government and corporations.
Updated several times a day.