Ten days ago, I wrote and posted an entry about why I thought Karl Rove would not be indicted, the nub of which was that that Patrick Fitzgerald was a sharp enough guy that he would realize that there was a limit to how far he could go up the White House hierarcy with his indictments and not receive massive return fire from Bush & Company, the nature of which could potentially damage his ability to prosecute the indictments -- and that Karl Rover was essentially that limit. It was my feeling that he could indict right up to Rove, but if he tried to take down Rove, he was in trouble.

In a couple of comments threads on TPM Cage and Hullabaloo I was taken to task for overestimating the power of the White House to retaliate, and chided for my pessimism.

Today, Bull Moose presents some ideas about what the scope of the counterattack could be:

We will soon learn the fate of Mr. Rove. But what we already know is what his reaction will be if he or anyone else in the White House are indicted - he will unleash the dogs of war against Mr. Fitzgerald. Rove undoubtedly has his operatives in place and prepared to respond if the indictment comes down. The plan of attack has been signed, sealed and ready for delivery at a Fox News outlet in your neighborhood.

While the President has praised the Republican special counsel, that will not influence the Republican attack machine. If the GOP is so dissatisfied with Fitzgerald, why wasn't he fired? Or why was he hired in the first place?

No, if he indicts, nothing else will matter to the GOP smear team than sullying the reputation of the special counsel. Hopefully, he has no unpaid parking tickets, has never jaywalked or removed a label from a mattress. If he has committed these misdeeds, we will see them advertised as a screaming headline on Drudge. They will do a "South Carolina" number on Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald will become the anti-Ken Starr to the right. He will be characterized as a zealous out of control prosecutor. The ACLU will be enlisted by the Norquist crowd to defend their brave persecuted leader, Mr. Rove. The right will wail that they are the victims of modern Palmer Raids with innocent leaders such as DeLay and Rove being swept out of power by a Vast Left Wing Conspiracy. Wasn't Fitzgerald seen at Blockbuster furtively renting a Michael Moore video and surfing Moveon.org?

All of the pack that relentlessly pursued Clinton will kvetch about the "criminalization of politics." They will see no irony or hypocrisy in their complaint because this is a fight about preserving power not maintaining consistency. The conservative standard is clear - when a Democratic President is the target it is about the "rule of law" and when the "victim" is a Republican it is about the "criminalization of politics." It is particularly rich that Tom DeLay, the relentless pursuer of Clinton, is making this claim. One wonders whether he agonized over this injustice with Casino Jack Abramoff and Righteous Ralph Reed as they jetted over the Atlantic on the way to their golfing outing in Scotland.

[...]

If indictments come, the right will cast Special Counsel Fitzgerald as a modern day Inspector Javert hounding his poor victim Rove who will emerge as the conservatives' Jean Valjean. Expect The Washington Post Style Section to report that Karl Valjean has been sighted driving his Jaguar down exclusive Foxhall Road on his way to his attorney blaring tunes from Les Miserables on his CD player.

Next step for Jean Rove will be a high profile come to Jesus moment with Chuck Colson. This will be followed by teary-eyed appearances on the 700 Club and Dr. Dobson's Focus on the Family where he will express himself by speaking in toungue. Rove is being crucified by Pontius Fitzgerald!

This is correct as far as it goes, but I was actually thinking of something else, not just the usual vituperations of the right-wing attack machine writ large -- something more on the order of Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre, in which Watergate special prosecutor Archibald Cox was dismissed and Attorney General Eliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus were forced to resign, all in an effort to derail the Watergate investigation. That didn't happen, of course, but Nixon was working with a Congress controlled by the opposition party and a moderately liberal Supreme Court, which limited to a large extent the amount of power he could bring to bear. Now, with Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress, as well as a center-right Supreme Court more attuned to protecting Bush's imperial presidency, there are few restraints on Bush beyond public opinion and whatever furor might be kicked up in today's tame media.

True, cracks have appeared in the smooth facade of Republican control, but as soon as it is understood that the special prosecutor has the big chief's biggest guy in his sights, the wagons will be circled and there will be no protection at all available for Fitzgerald.

Addenda: My standard disclaimer -- I would like nothing better than for Karl Rove to be tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail. My concern is that indicting Rove could have the effect of scuttling the other indictments that are brought, and I would prefer to see as many of the charges as possible prosecuted to conviction.

There s approximately zero chance of the indictments, whoever they include, will bring down the Bush administration, so if that's why people are so hungry for them, they're on the wrong track.

If you read unfutz at least once a week, without fail, your teeth will be whiter and your love life more satisfying.

If you read it daily, I will come to your house, kiss you on the forehead, bathe your feet, and cook pancakes for you, with yummy syrup and everything.

(You might want to keep a watch on me, though, just to avoid the syrup ending up on your feet and the pancakes on your forehead.)

Finally, on a more mundane level, since I don't believe that anyone actually reads this stuff, I make this offer: I'll give five bucks to the first person who contacts me and asks for it -- and, believe me, right now five bucks might as well be five hundred, so this is no trivial offer.