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Historic Weather

On November 4th, 1985, it was raining in West Virginia. The remnants of Hurricane Juan had already arrived after making landfall in Louisiana on October 28th. However, the rain was coming down with high rates over several hours, which would ultimately lead to one of the worst flooding events in West Virginia history, causing a half billion dollars in damage, and destroying nearly 5,000 homes.

The setup for this historic flood is a bit complicated meteorologically. Hurricane Juan made landfall in Louisiana on October 28th, 1985 and generally moved north into Canada over the following days. On November 3rd, a low pressure area developed over Florida and moved northeast along a cold front. This northeast movement brought in a large area of moisture that had been influenced by the remnants of Hurricane Juan’s track. That area of low pressure moving into our region became cutoff from the main jet stream as it moved in late November 3rd. Due to a lack of upper level winds, the remnants remained over our area for about 2.5 days, causing extreme rainfall totals to be recorded before moving out on November 6th (Click gallery below to view images).

Two people observe the damage around them on WV 72 in Rowlesburg (Courtesy of WV Regional and History Center).

Debris and Damage on the Blackfork Railroad Bridge near Parsons, W. Va. (Courtesy of the WV and Regional History Center).

An unidentified man stands next to a car and several houses that were flooded when a stream, possibly Seneca Creek or White’s Run, changed it’s course during the 1985 flood (Courtesy of the WV and Regional History Center).

Debris from flooding surrounds a home in Pendleton County (Courtesy of the WV and Regional History Center).

The town of Parsons received heavy damage from the flood, especially on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Debris, cars, a damaged bus, and a damaged truck surround a church after the flood in Mouth of Seneca, W.Va. (Courtesy of the WV and Regional History Center).

Debris, damaged cars, mud, and water remain in the street in front of the courthouse in Parsons, W. Va. (Courtesy of the WV and Regional History Center).

Here, a cow carcass is entangled with flood debris beneath the Cheat River Bridge in Saint George. Photograph by John Warner, courtesy of the West Virginia State Archives.

A church in Onego, W. Va. is surrounded by water from a creek that used to be behind it. The flooded and muddy field was previously a green pasture. (Courtesy of the WV and Regional History Center).

RAINFALL

The heaviest rainfall occurred during the late afternoon and evening hours of November 4th into the morning hours of November 5th. Rainfall was enhanced over the Appalachian Mountains due to the process of orographic lifting, a process where the terrain of mountains force air to rise, condense, and cause rainfall to occur. Though lower elevation towns such as Spencer, Grantsville, Elizabeth, and Charleston received generally 3-4″ as a result of the storm (which is still enough to cause localized flooding), the enhancement of rainfall caused by orographic lifting dumped rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches in Pendleton County. Parts of Tucker, Randolph, Pendleton, Grant, and Hardy counties all received in excess of 8 inches of rain as a result of the storm, which caused unprecedented flooding to these areas in particular. A wide swatch of eastern West Virginia (shown below) received over six inches of rain, which led to widespread flooding issues on several river basins, including but not limited to the Greenbrier, Cheat, Tygart, Little Kanawha, Buckhannon, and Potomac Rivers.

Rainfall totals were extreme across most of the eastern half of West Virginia, with a wide swatch of 6″ (shown in red) reported across the area. The highest rainfall totals occurred in Pendleton County, where close to 11 inches of rain fell (Click on image to zoom).

A total of approximately 4,389 homes were destroyed in West Virginia as a result of the flood. Nearly 1,500 of those homes alone were in Grant County. In addition, 762 homes were condemned, and 3,033 homes received major damage in the Mountain State. 131 busineses were destroyed, 23 businesses were condemned, and 474 businesses received major damage. 103 bridges were affected, 429 highways were affected, and 15 schools were affected as a result of this tragedy in West Virginia. It is estimated that over 2,500 people were left homeless, and damage was estimated at $500 million dollars in 1985. 47 people were killed. Ten water gauges in West Virginia recorded record levels. Water records are shown below, as well as a county-by-county analysis of damage received in each county, provided by the book “Killing Waters: The Great West Virginia Flood of 1985”.

Flood waters surge toward the truck as it attempts to make its way across a roadway along the Greenbrier River in Summers County (Courtesy of the West Virginia and Regional History Center).

The flood caused serious economic damage to eastern West Virginia, and population drops in towns reflected some of that damage. From 1980 to 1990, the population dropped from 1,937 to 1,453 in Parsons, W.Va. (-25%), 966 in 1980 to 648 in 1990 in Rowlesburg, W.Va. (-33%), 2,155 in 1980 to 1,923 in 1990 in Glenville, W.Va. (-11%), 1,352 in 1980 to 1,148 in 1990 in Marlinton, W.Va. (-15%), 2,038 in 1980 to 1,850 in 1990 in Belington W.Va. (-9%), and from 357 in 1980 to 195 in 1990 in Albright, W.Va. (-45%).

For a more in-depth look at this terrible West Virginia tragedy, I highly suggest purchasing “Killing Waters: The Great West Virginia Flood of 1985” by Bob Teets and Shelby Young.

Despite the warm temperatures we are currently seeing in central West Virginia, the season of snow is right around the corner! In fact, as recently as 2012 have we seen a measurable snow before Halloween!

Earliest First Snows in Our Region

The top 10 earliest measurable snowfalls recorded for both Charleston and Elkins.

As far as history is concerned, the mountain counties have already seen snow this early in the year, and the lowlands are not far behind. Elkins’ earliest measurable snow has taken place on October 6th, while the earliest measurable snow for Charleston occurred on October 19th. As far as the last three years, Charleston received its first measurable snow on November 13th (2014), December 18th (2015), and November 19th (2016). For Elkins, its first measurable snow the last three years have taken place on November 18th (2014), December 3rd (2015), and November 19th (2016).

The top 5 latest first measurable snows of all-time in Charleston are February 25th (1950), January 2nd (2012), January 1st (1995), December 20th (1965), and December 18th (2015). The top 5 latest first measurable snows of all-time in Elkins are December 28th (1931), December 15th (1946), December 11th (1947), December 8th (1941), and December 4th (1990).

Snowiest Months

If you are not a fan of the snowy season, then 2017 has been a good year to you. During the entire year, Charleston has seen only five days with measurable snowfall. For Charleston, that is the second lowest number of measurable snow days in the city’s history, only to the year 1949 (4). Elkins has seen 18 measurable snow days so far in 2017, which is currently tied for the lowest number of days of measurable snowfall with the year 1932.

On the flip side, Charleston has seen as many as 18 days of measurable snow in a single month, which occurred in January of 1978. 17 days of measurable snow in a single month were observed in January 1985 and January 1979. The highest number of days with measurable snowfall in a single month in Elkins is 23 set in January 1985. Impressively, 22 days was reached in February of 1964 (Only 29 days), and 22 was also reached in January 1978. The highest number of days with measurable snowfall in a year in Charleston is 42 days, which was set in 1995, followed by 41 (1978), 40 (2010), and 38 (1985, 1979, 1977, and 1960). For Elkins, the highest number of days with measurable snowfall in a year is 65, which was set in 1981, followed by 63 (1979), 61 (1989), 58 (1970), 57 (1968), and 56 (2010).

Average Snowfall in the Mountain State

Average snowfall per year (State Climate Office of North Carolina).

On average, Charleston receives about 36″ of snowfall during a year, while Elkins averages around 83″.

The large difference between the two cities has a nearly direct correlation with elevation. During the winter months, it is very common for an upslope snow effect to take place on the mountaintops of the Appalachians. This effect takes place when moisture in the form of clouds from a source of water (usually the Great Lakes for our region) is pushed up over the mountaintops and condenses, causing snow to fall when temperatures are sufficiently cold. Upslope adds significantly to the average snow total of an affected town, and Elkins is certainly one of those affected.

Breaking it down by month, Charleston averages about 1″ of snow in November, 6″ in December, 11″ January, 10″ in February, 6″ in March, and 1″ in April. Elkins averages about 1/2″ in October, 5″ in November, 17″ in December, 24″ in January, 19″ in February, 12″ in March, and 5″ in April.

Record Snowfall in the Mountain State

According to the West Virginia Encyclopedia, Terra Alta holds the record for most snow to fall in a single month, with 104 inches falling in January 1977. The encyclopedia says that the most snow to occur during a 24-hour period is 35 inches at Flat Top, on the Mercer/Raleigh County line on January 27-28th, 1998, an average of about 1.5″/hour for 24 hours. The most snow to occur during a single storm is 57 inches, which took place during the great post-Thanksgiving snowstorm of 1950 in Pickens in Randolph County, WV.

In terms of snowfall from a single event, the most snow to fall in Charleston is 23.3″, which occurred about 20 years ago on January 8th, 1996. More recently, 18.7″ of snow fell on January 23rd, 2016, and 12.8″ of snow fell on December 20th, 2009. In Elkins, a whopping 28.2″ of snow fell on November 26th, 1950, the most snow ever to fall in the city. More recently, 22.5″ of snow fell on February 15th, 2014, and 21.6″ of snow was on the ground on December 20th, 2009.

Lastly, I’m going to end this post with a list of some of the most common winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings, and their meanings to refresh everyone on the differences between each. Expect a winter forecast sometime in November.

Different Winter-Related Watches and Warnings and their Meanings

Winter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur…it only means it is possible.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Watch for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

Winter Storm Warning

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

Ice Storm Warning – ¼ inch or more of ice accumulation.

Freezing Rain Advisory – Ice accumulations of less than 1/4 inch.

Winter Weather Advisory – A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued when 2 to 4 inches of snow, alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain, is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.

For this particularly snow event in 2016, several winter weather advisories (blue) and winter storm warnings (pink) were issued by the NWS.

Freeze Watch – A Freeze Watch is issued when there is a potential for significant, widespread freezing temperatures within the next 24-36 hours. A Freeze Watch is issued in the spring at the start of the growing season (when it is late enough to cause damage to new plants and crops).

Freeze Warning – A Freeze Warning is issued when significant, widespread freezing temperatures are expected. A Freeze Warning is issued in the spring at the start of the growing season (when it is late enough to cause damage to new plants and crops).

Frost Advisory – A Frost Advisory is issued when the minimum temperature is forecast to be 33 to 36 degrees on clear and calm nights during the growing season. A Frost Advisory is issued in the spring at the start of the growing season (when it is late enough to cause damage to new plants and crops).

Wind Chill Advisory – A Wind Chill Advisory is issued when wind chills of -5F to -19F are expected east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and when wind chills of -10 to -24F are expected along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains and in Frederick and Carroll Counties in Maryland.

Wind Chill Warning – A Wind Chill Warning is issued when wind chills of -20F or lower are expected east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and when wind chills of -25F or lower are expected along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains and in Frederick and Carroll Counties in Maryland.