If it can manage to be around league average, the Indians can contend for October. If it's as bad as it was last season, that's going to be a major long shot.

For those who don't want to read it, though I don't know why, here are some of the tidbits in it:

Pitching with no margin for error:

It’s not easy to pitch knowing that if you give up four runs, your team will lose. The Indians were 19-83 last season when they allowed four or more runs. Adding extra pressure by never pitching with a lead or knowing that one mistake will cost your team the game is extremely difficult and a lot to ask of a starting staff. Add in that the Indians had the third-youngest pitching staff in baseball and, by the end of the season, the starters’ ages were 27, 28, 24, 24, and 26. Add in that Indians pitchers had a terrible defense behind them, one that allowed 79 unearned runs and countless other runs by a lack of range or other miscues that weren’t counted as errors.

On the 2012 rotation:

The overall numbers for the starters in 2012 were ugly: 48-76, 5.25 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and a 4.73 FIP. What the difference between ERA and FIP, fielder independent pitching, tells us is that the Indians defense was bad and the pitchers suffered because of it. Well, it also tells us that the pitchers weren’t very good in their own right, but that the fielders didn’t help either. To reiterate what goes in to the calculation of FIP, it is a metric that creates an alternative to ERA using outcomes that the pitcher has exclusive control over – home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts. A 4.73 FIP is not good, nor is a 5.25 ERA.

Now, let’s re-calculate those numbers without Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff, Roberto Hernandez, and Chris Seddon, six guys who will not make any starts for the Indians this summer. Huff is the only one with an outside shot, but I’d put it at less than five percent that he makes a start. Lowe, Gomez, Hernandez, and Seddon are on other teams and Tomlin is out for the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

That leaves Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach McAllister, and Corey Kluber: 28-45, 4.94 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.47 FIP. Not good, but better. If you’ll recall my latest article, Thursday’s look at the Indians possibly being 2013’s Baltimore or Oakland, a 4.47 FIP would have ranked higher than Baltimore’s 4.50 FIP. It’s important to understand what these numbers mean and what they could mean for the Indians.

On Ubaldo Jimenez:

In a season full of terrible trends for Jimenez, the worst one, in my opinion, was the severe drop in ground ball rate. Jimenez was a ground ball machine from 2007-2011, with yearly ground ball rates of 46.4, 54.4, 52.5, 48.8, and 47.2. The league average is 44 percent. In 2012, Jimenez’s ground ball rate fell to 38.4 percent.

As believers in the ground ball like to say, you can’t hit a home run on a ground ball. Not surprisingly, Jimenez saw the highest HR/9 rate of his career at 1.27 and the highest HR per fly ball rate of his career at 11.8 percent. Keep in mind that he allowed more fly balls than in any other year of his career and HE USED TO PITCH AT COORS FIELD! Oh, yeah, and he also allowed the highest line drive rate of his career….by nearly four percent.

So, to summarize, we have a pitcher who is losing velocity, with no control, who is regularly pitching up in the zone and not fooling anybody, posting the lowest swinging strike percentage of his career. The worst part about all of this is that these weren’t new developments in 2012. This entire process was already developing when the Indians acquired Jimenez. Despite the clear red flags, the Indians rolled the dice anyway. And they threw snake eyes.

I think it's deeper and has more talent than last season. If they can keep their heads above water from Opening Day to mid-to-late June and then get reinforcements from Carlos Carrasco, after he shakes off the Tommy John rust, and Trevor Bauer, if his command improves, the rotation could look a lot stronger in the second half of the season.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I think one or both of Kasmir/Dice-K could be diamonds in the rough. I'm especially hopeful for Kasmir 'cause we could really use a southpaw.

Remember when we all saw that poll last year of which managers were the least respected and Acta was shockingly 3rd? And that's on a team with very little national pub. Also remember how often Manny let Justin (who is extremely popular on the team) dangle? I'm pretty sure that Francona will mange the staff a elluva lot better.

I think the opening day rotation doesn't matter. Bauer and Carrasco will both join the team before midseason and both should pitch at least MOR quality. Those two and Masterson have all pitched like a genuine ace for extended periods and I have every hope that by midseason one of those three will be pitching like an ace.

If that happens, Bauer/Masterson/Carrasco/Myers/McCallister is a far from terrible rotation. If all of the first 3 guys there pitch to their ceiling, that is one of the best rotations in the league. Now, I'm expecting serviceable stuff, not their ceiling, but my point is simply that it is far from a forgone conclusion that league average is our best hope.

Quite a bit of raving about Carlos Carrasco so far. Maybe having a full camp will be enough to shake off the rust and make the rotation. The competition among Kluber, Kazmir, Carrasco, Bauer, and Matsuzaka should be an interesting one.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I'm not that worried, we have enough fliers to cobble together a decent rotation. I'm hopeful on Carrasco too, a lot of people forget how well he was pitching in June 2011 before he got hurt. And if we're in contention mid-summer and need an upgrade, we now have an extra outfielder as a trade chip (assuming the nouveau riche Dolans will keep writing checks).

On a semi-related note, I'm a Michigan fan and currently have the pleasure of hearing Hammy call our basketball game on BTN. Hopefully Rosenhaus doesn't take over during the middle part of the game.

"Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do...win the whole, f***in', thing."- Jake Taylor

I just don't think Carrasco's going to make the opening day roster - despite the "talking up" he's getting.

I do think he's one of the top 5 starters in terms of talent but, they're going to want to monitor his innings, so I suspect they'll want to start him in AAA to keep track of his workload and then give him a chance in MLB after a month or two.

If I had to call it right now, I'd say the rotation will be Masterson, Ubaldo, Myers, McAllister and Dice-K with Kazmir getting a spot as long reliever.

Obviously this can all change but, I suspect this is the way the Tribe brass might be thinking/hoping it will all pan out.

Carrasco will be the first to step in if/when someone (Ubaldo?) struggles!

Velocity back up to mid-90s, slider has its bite back, a new pitch that he can throw for strikes, best shape his agent has seen him in. He may need to start the season in AAA, but I see him having an impact on this pitching staff.

"There is but one thing of real value: to cultivate truth and justice and to live without anger in the midst of lying and unjust men"

dazindiansfanuk wrote:I just don't think Carrasco's going to make the opening day roster - despite the "talking up" he's getting.

I do think he's one of the top 5 starters in terms of talent but, they're going to want to monitor his innings, so I suspect they'll want to start him in AAA to keep track of his workload and then give him a chance in MLB after a month or two.

I agree with this and it's what I said at the beginning and in my article. Low-stress environment in Columbus. It's not like he's in a make or break season. They're looking long term with him.

If I had to call it right now, I'd say the rotation will be Masterson, Ubaldo, Myers, McAllister and Dice-K with Kazmir getting a spot as long reliever.

Reasonable, though I think they'd rather have Kazmir in a starting role in Columbus, if he'd accept, to continue to build up arm strength. He's rebuilding his career. Going six or seven days without pitching and maybe throwing one or two innings isn't the way to handle him IMO.

My pen would be Perez, Pestano, Smith, Hagadone, Barnes, Albers, and Allen. No room for Kazmir if they carry 12 pitchers. We don't really have a long reliever in this scenario, but I can't see them sending Allen down or only carrying one lefty. Might carry 13 pitchers, though, because of the versatility of Aviles and Swisher and having a DH that can play two positions (though not well).

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Love that Kasmir article. This rotation has the potential to be excellent.

Bauer could be an aceKasmir could be a great #2Justin could be your workhorse guy in the 3rd slotLil' CC could be a #4 with FOR stuffUbaldo could be the best #5 in MLBMyers could be your goto 6th guy when you need to eat innings

With Dice-K, McAllister, Huff, Salazar, and Soto in waiting in the wings we could have some very nice depth just in case.

Will all of these guys work out like this? Obviously not. But if only half reach their potential, we'll have a very solid rotation for sure.

I also wouldn't underestimate the new outfield defense and having Francona at the helm. "T-ank" ain't gonna let Justin get shelled out there in the 8th inning like Acta did.

Add in the fact that the offense is going to be so much better so guys won't always be pitching with the thought that if they give up a two run dinger the game is over and you'll have a more relaxed staff.

And I like the idea of going with the 13 man pen to take pressure off the starters. It would create a spot for Huff (out of options), and with the flexibility on the roster, you can still have Giambi, Aviles, and Marson/Gomez and cover every position in case. Especially if it's Gomez. Though I think they'll have him work on his Catching defense in C-bus before they cut loose Marson. But when he makes it to the big club he will provide enormous flexibility.

My concern is that our rotation is based on could. There's not one guy in that rotation that we can count on to put up a solid year. Everything has to align perfectly for this to work, and we know how often that happens.

That said, I am hopeful that Masterson at the very least steps up. The rest are huge 'what ifs' and I firmly believe Ubaldo will continue to be mediocre.

WiscTribeFan wrote:My concern is that our rotation is based on could. There's not one guy in that rotation that we can count on to put up a solid year. Everything has to align perfectly for this to work, and we know how often that happens.

That said, I am hopeful that Masterson at the very least steps up. The rest are huge 'what ifs' and I firmly believe Ubaldo will continue to be mediocre.

C'mon now, that's the magic word of spring.

Never mind the good teams havingfew could and many do's.

I remember last year when some jumble of humps was going to approach Feilder/Cabrera production. And the argument wasn't that it was impossible (though highly unlikely) it was the point that Cabby and Fielder weren't dealing in "coulds." They were gonna hit.

This point is missed every spring. The Tribe "might" stumble on an ace. Whether they do or not, Detroit is in the clubhouse in this regard.

Adnauseum every year - if every teams "coulds" work out, you'd need to win 140 to get into the post season.

WiscTribeFan wrote:My concern is that our rotation is based on could. There's not one guy in that rotation that we can count on to put up a solid year. Everything has to align perfectly for this to work, and we know how often that happens.

That said, I am hopeful that Masterson at the very least steps up. The rest are huge 'what ifs' and I firmly believe Ubaldo will continue to be mediocre.

C'mon now, that's the magic word of spring.

Never mind the good teams havingfew could and many do's.

I remember last year when some jumble of humps was going to approach Feilder/Cabrera production. And the argument wasn't that it was impossible (though highly unlikely) it was the point that Cabby and Fielder weren't dealing in "coulds." They were gonna hit.

This point is missed every spring. The Tribe "might" stumble on an ace. Whether they do or not, Detroit is in the clubhouse in this regard.

Adnauseum every year - if every teams "coulds" work out, you'd need to win 140 to get into the post season.

"February- Where 'Could' springs eternal".

I can see it on a poster now. Picture of Zeke Carrera or a broken down Scott Kazmir.

But, I give a lot of space. Pretty much all people have here is extrapolating and 'coulding'.

And there are fewer 'coulds' today than there were a couple months. Not on the starting staff, mind you, but how big a deal is that, really??

WiscTribeFan wrote:My concern is that our rotation is based on could. There's not one guy in that rotation that we can count on to put up a solid year. Everything has to align perfectly for this to work, and we know how often that happens.

That said, I am hopeful that Masterson at the very least steps up. The rest are huge 'what ifs' and I firmly believe Ubaldo will continue to be mediocre.

C'mon now, that's the magic word of spring.

Never mind the good teams havingfew could and many do's.

I remember last year when some jumble of humps was going to approach Feilder/Cabrera production. And the argument wasn't that it was impossible (though highly unlikely) it was the point that Cabby and Fielder weren't dealing in "coulds." They were gonna hit.

This point is missed every spring. The Tribe "might" stumble on an ace. Whether they do or not, Detroit is in the clubhouse in this regard.

Adnauseum every year - if every teams "coulds" work out, you'd need to win 140 to get into the post season.

"February- Where 'Could' springs eternal".

I can see it on a poster now. Picture of Zeke Carrera or a broken down Scott Kazmir.

But, I give a lot of space. Pretty much all people have here is extrapolating and 'coulding'.

And there are fewer 'coulds' today than there were a couple months. Not on the starting staff, mind you, but how big a deal is that, really??

Dude...C'mon man! The basis of your statement makes sports obsolete. The winning isn't the moment you triumph, it's the buy-in at the start.

It would be almost impossible for the rotation to be worse than last year so I guess that's a good thing. I still look at Detroit's roster and they have 4 starting pitchers that would EASILY be the number 1 guy in Cleveland (Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez). And really, how much worse was their worst (Porcello) than our best last year?? Since that is the premier organization in our division now that is who we have to attempt to get better than, and it's hard for me to see us anywhere close to them. If we are within 10 games of them at the end of the year, I think that would be a remarkable season for us.

scrambler wrote:It would be almost impossible for the rotation to be worse than last year so I guess that's a good thing. I still look at Detroit's roster and they have 4 starting pitchers that would EASILY be the number 1 guy in Cleveland (Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez). And really, how much worse was their worst (Porcello) than our best last year?? Since that is the premier organization in our division now that is who we have to attempt to get better than, and it's hard for me to see us anywhere close to them. If we are within 10 games of them at the end of the year, I think that would be a remarkable season for us.

But their infield defense is suspect.

Wasn't that the argument we heard last year when we were all springy and tingly with anticipation and justifying how Hannahan and Kotchman would defend us into contention?

Focus was on throwing breaking balls, hence the "B" Game part. I'm still not expecting a lot from Kazmir, but give me league average numbers and a left handed arm slot in the rotation and I'll be pretty happy with that. Especially from a non-roster invite lottery ticket.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

So Lohse still unsigned. Im sure the tribe isnt interested at 8-14 million a year nor a multi year deal. But maybe chances getting better he might be forced to take an extremely discounted 1 year deal? Barring an injury and 1 team getting jumpy of course or just plain old hard headedness.

At this point what is another pick as long as the money is dirt cheap. I mean he would be an upgrade(not sure how much), but only if its at a discounted price.

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:So lohse still unsigned. Chances getting better he might be forced to take an extremely discounted 1 year deal? Barring an injury and 1 team getting jumpy.

Im sure the tribe is interested at 8-14 million a year nor for in a multi year deal.

At this point what is another pick as long as the money is dirt cheap. I mean he would be an upgrade, if its at a discounted price.

Indians continue to stand firm that they are tapped out. Boras, from what I saw on Twitter the other day, still wants 3 years with a sizable yearly amount. Lohse is lying in the weeds waiting for a major pitching injury.

I don't want him. Better than what we have, probably. But his GB% rate has decreased each of the last four seasons, he allowed the most line drives by number of any pitcher last season, and he's 34. Add in a change of leagues and a rather unsustainable walk rate and Zach McAllister could put up similar numbers to Lohse pitching in the AL with a mediocre infield defense.

I especially don't want him for a multi-year deal, nor do I want to overpay him as incentive to sign a one-year deal.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

The reason that Lohse isn't signed somewhere already is the draft pick compensation. He's really getting screwed by that and can't capitalize on the year he put together last year. I feel bad for the guy.

Does anyone know if that draft pick compensation runs out at any point? Or is that applied even after the season starts?

Can't remember where I've seen it, but I swear I've read that the compensation issue doesn't apply after the draft occurs. If that's the case, maybe he's best served getting into playing shape with a private trainer and waiting for the team with an inevitable injury to come calling in June. He could conceivably get a way better offer by waiting it out.

motherscratcher wrote:The reason that Lohse isn't signed somewhere already is the draft pick compensation. He's really getting screwed by that and can't capitalize on the year he put together last year. I feel bad for the guy.

I think that's part of it, but I also think Boras wants too much money and too many years for a 34 year old pitcher with a poor track record when he pitches someplace other than St. Louis. They've got a great system for pitchers down there, even after Duncan left, and teams are leery of how he might do outside of that system, from what I've read.

Going to watch the Kazmir outing this morning. The Fangraphs article mentioned some refinement issues on the breaking ball. Will be nice to see him for myself, since I don't believe in Spring Training stats.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Probably going to write something up about Kazmir to go on the front page sometime this week.

Anyway, some brief observations:

He was effectively wild. In some cases, he was missing his target by the width of the plate and left quite a few pitches high, but well out of the zone. There's definitely some deception in his delivery, as the Angels took a lot of late swings. They fouled off a lot of fastballs, some of them as emergency swings.

I saw four pitches, fastball, cutter, slider, change. I think he only threw one or two changeups. He really pulled the string on one slider, may have been a curveball, but it totally fooled Mark Trumbo. Snapped off a couple real good sliders. Also hung a couple, but they missed out of the zone and not over the middle of the plate.

No gun on the Angels broadcast, but I'd be inclined to agree with the Fangraphs article that he was sitting low 90s.

One of the hits, SS Juan Diaz should have gotten. Another was a broken bat down the RF line by Trumbo on a fastball up and out of the zone. Not many hard hit balls. Sawed Josh Hamilton off with what looked like the cutter, splintered his bat in four or five pieces. Fielded his position well on the first out of the game.

Tim Salmon was on the Angels broadcast and he kept raving about how fluid Kazmir's delivery looked. Kazmir was with the Angels from mid-2009 to 2011 and Salmon said he used to have a bit of a hitch in his delivery.

If he stays together, he should be an asset, at least his first couple times through the teams that haven't seen him. Looks like there's a good amount of deception in his delivery and the restored velo had hitters behind.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Yes nice article. It's should again be noted that we are talking 5th starter here. Indeed spring training numbers are not much to go on but in an off season that has went better than any in years one tends to believe that maybe the Indians will get lucky here.

Matt Capps was recently seen by Mike Newman at Fangraphs in a 'B' game between the Indians and Mariners. He was sitting 84-87 mph. He wasn't going to make the bullpen, but I highly doubt he'll even stay in the organization. Sounds like he's just not healthy.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Just going to throw this here, as it's not worthy of its own thread.

Matt Capps was recently seen by Mike Newman at Fangraphs in a 'B' game between the Indians and Mariners. He was sitting 84-87 mph. He wasn't going to make the bullpen, but I highly doubt he'll even stay in the organization. Sounds like he's just not healthy.

On that note:

Jordan Bastian ‏@MLBastianSaw RHP Matt Capps leave the complex early this morning. Indians might have made a decision about his roster status. Stay tuned.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe