If the risks to European security of a British exit are as plain and inevitable as Mr Rostowski suggests, it is worth asking ask why other member states are not trying harder to keep the UK in the EU by offering London some genuine concessions.

The fact that other Europeans have conceded virtually nothing during the course of Mr Cameron's renegotiation process suggests (i) they are confident that the UK will vote to stay in under any circumstances; or (ii) they don’t share Mr Rostowski’s fears; or (iii) they don't care if a British exit does generate a security crisis on the continent.

My suspicion is that it is the last of these. If so, then this tells a worrying truth about the ideological rigidity of Europe's elites - something which is far more likely to tip Europe into a full-blown security crisis than whether the British choose to leave the EU.

Jacek Rostowski asks whether a Brexit would pose a threat to "UK security". He points out that the concern David Cameron expressed in his speech in November 2015 may be too late. Cameron said, “for Britain the European question is not just a matter of economic security, but of national security too”. Britain's membership of the EU “does matter for our national security and for the security of our allies”.
Britain's security and intelligence agencies have emphasised the importance of cooperation with their EU partners. In the US, "presidents from both major parties...have touted European integration." Barack Obama has said Britain should remain in the EU. So has China’s president, Xi Jingping. "By thumbing its nose at so fundamental an American interest, Britain would almost certainly undermine what remains of the bilateral “special relationship” that UK governments have cultivated" for decades. In fact George Kennan, best known as "the father" of the USA Containment Policy and a leading authority on the Cold War had in a 1998 interview warned against "turning our backs on the very people /Europeans/ who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime".
Cameron's security concern was inspired by the former Labour foreign secretary, David Lord Owen, who said the debate triggered by the EU referendum must include security policy. Indeed, questions have been raised what an impact a "Brexit" would have on UK and European security interests.
As "NATO ensures the UK's defense", a Brexit will not "undermine the country's security". But Rostowski says "security and defense are not the same thing". A country with "true security" would not "have to call upon the defense alliances to which it belongs - and that is what membership in the EU... provides." But a European country can be either a member of NATO - a defense alliance, or a EU member. Many are members of both. Is the EU competing with NATO in defence issues?
Experts believe that given the dire straits of most European armed forces, the EU may not be able to defend itself without NATO. Besides the US wants the Europeans to take on a much bigger military and security role, and invest in much more relevant armed forces, as Washington focuses on China, the Pacific, and Far East.
Rostowski says Britain "enjoys an unprecedented level of security" far from "instability and violence in countries like Ukraine and Syria". However, a Brexit "may well set in motion a cascade of events that could profoundly undermine that security," strengthening Euroskeptic and nationalist parties of left and right. It might help Marine Le Pen of France's Front National win the 2017 presidential election. She would fall out with Germany, which dominates the EU, and leave the Eurozone. Her anti-Western foreign policy would move in sync with Vladmir Putin's, as she is indebted to Russia for a private loan she received last year. A Brexit would trigger a domino effect across Europe, advancing nationalism and chauvinism, turning the clock back to pre-World War Two, and "confronting the EU with an existential crisis from which it would not be easy to recover." Moreover a Brexit "could give a huge boost to Scottish nationalism; the breakup of the UK would further weaken Britain’s security." Well, it's up to the Britons to decide when they cast their votes.

Today - European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker warns that a definite “no vote” in the Netherlands’ referendum about the association agreement with Ukraine in April will lead to a major crisis. 76% of dutch voters say they will vote No. Seems the Dutch are baulking at the EU idea of a lead up to Ukraine becoming part of the EU and another 45 million being free to roam the EU. So that'll be a No then Claude.

Junckers has had another kick back from Germany about his proposed reforms on EZ banking. For Germany, Juncker’s announcement that he intends to “move swiftly on all fronts – economic, financial, fiscal and political Union,” seems to be viewed as a classic case of Europe seeking to put German taxpayers’ money where the EU’s mouth is.

Seems the UK is not the only one questioning EU administrative foie gras. Not surprised

The Polish Deputy PM is right.
NATO is the bedrock why Europe is safe.
European Union is not the same as NATO.
Brexit is not about exit from NATO.
The European Economic Community EEC is what Britain joined in 1973.
Britain perhaps would still vote to stay in the EEC and NATO both.
The EU is a completely different organization - the agenda has morphed.
It is this New Europe version that is at the root of the angst - not NATO or EEC.
Perhaps one way to meet - is to build a NATO ECONOMIC COMMUNITY.
Am sure BRITAIN will vote overwhelmingly in the affirmative.
With Australia and Canada and America inside.

So basically the idea is the UK should do what is good for continental Europe - from Polands ex Dep PM

Not once is there an assessment that some of the EUs hairbrained EU antics may cause a security problem for the UK

This is a voice from the same Poland that spends less as a GDP% than the UK and is vocal is wanting NATO to establish a base in Poland for Polands security and recieves substantial grant aid from the EU

'And EU membership virtually guarantees cooperation against the tactical threat posed by the Islamic State'. I dont think so. There is an increasing list of 'persons of interest' that agencies increasing admit they cannot keep on top of in continental EU. France, Germnay and Sweden come to mind

Nationalism is on the rise in the EU. Yes indeed that is fact and the question is why mainstream politicians have failed - not whether the UK Brexit if it occurs may have a hypothetical impact on other countries democratic ballot box outcomes. Democracy is such a problem if it throws up result incumbents dont like

Firstly - Do you seriously think Scotland wants razor wire along Hadrians wall and passport control of the like which is now so common in Europe:

Secondly Scottish indie does not make economic sense with oil at low levels which is not going away anytime soon.

Thirdly Spain central is fighting Catalonian Indie home brewed efforts in a raw attempt to hang onto the wealth of that region, even threatening army intervention. Part of the Spainish gameplan is inevitably to demand any breakaway region - which is what both Catalonia and Scotland would be - has to apply as a new applicant to the EU. This has serious issues with it as the process takes considerable time and for Scotland it would also almost certainly entail drinking from the poisoned chalice which is the use of the euro

New Comment

Pin comment to this paragraph

After posting your comment, you’ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.

Log in/Register

Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.

Log in

Register

Emailrequired

PasswordrequiredRemember me?

Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.