Seems to me if you do the math on how far a child can travel in the temps on the day she disappeared, then draw a circle on a map using the distances, you would have a pretty good idea of the search area. With enough people fanning out in that area, if she is there, wouldn't she be found?

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Funny thing is, you can never really predict it. She may have collapsed quickly, but it is also possible that she could have wandered quite far, even in a hypothermic or delusional state.

That map is to Foster Gulch, not Foster Gulch Rd, which actually comes out on S Rockerville Rd about a mile or so north of the Home. It is unlikely that she went to Foster Gulch, which is quite a way southeast, when she was last seen heading north. But it is possible she make it to Foster Gulch Rd. MOO, of course.

That map is to Foster Gulch, not Foster Gulch Rd, which actually comes out on S Rockerville Rd about a mile or so north of the Home. It is unlikely that she went to Foster Gulch, which is quite a way southeast, when she was last seen heading north. But it is possible she make it to Foster Gulch Rd. MOO, of course.

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Yeah, I know what you're saying, but it's a bit unclear since, in the video, the sheriff describes the search as the Foster Gulch and Teepee Gulch "area" (vs. "roads"). I'll delete the map because the roads definitely make more sense. I wish he would have been more specific. MOO

Yeah, I know what you're saying, but it's a bit unclear since the sheriff describes the search today as Foster Gulch and Teepee Gulch "area" (vs. "roads"). I'll delete the map because the roads definitely make more sense. I wish he would have been more specific. MOO

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No need to delete it. It has been unclear since the beginning.
It is hard to tell exactly what area they are focusing on today because the names are ambiguous. But I think it is to the north and east of the Home. I believe they have thoroughly checked out Tepee Gulch Rd, which I think is the little road that comes out just to the north of the Home and goes generally northwest.

No need to delete it. It has been unclear since the beginning.
It is hard to tell exactly what area they are focusing on today because the names are ambiguous. But I think it is to the north and east of the Home.

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Lol, too late! Hopefully, we'll see something that clarifies today's search area, and I agree with you that NE of the home makes more sense. MOO

What if a staff member was as familiar with her upbringing as we all now are? What if that staff member decided to get her away from all of the people who in her/his opinion had not done right by her? The longer this goes with no sign of her, these types of possibilities become more likely. Up-thread someone mentioned possible punishment towards her sent too far. I'll agree both of these scenarios seem unlikely, but not as unlikely as her not being found already.

What if a staff member was as familiar with her upbringing as we all now are? What if that staff member decided to get her away from all of the people who in her/his opinion had not done right by her? The longer this goes with no sign of her, these types of possibilities become more likely. Up-thread someone mentioned possible punishment towards her sent too far. I'll agree both of these scenarios seem unlikely, but not as unlikely as her not being found already.

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I think if one reads as to what her behavior was like at her home, someone taking her would be unlikely. It sounds like she had a lot of meltdowns .

I think if one reads as to what her behavior was like at her home, someone taking her would be unlikely. It sounds like she had a lot of meltdowns .

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True, and I have read and considered that. I'm just throwing scenarios out there. Perhaps this staff member thought they could "save her". Long shot for sure, but it is hard to believe she has not been found. I live and hunt in a rural area. My dogs are retrievers, not trained search dogs, but they can find any dead animal or remnant of a dead animal around. I know that snow and water mask scent, and perhaps that is why she has not been located.

True, and I have read and considered that. I'm just throwing scenarios out there. Perhaps this staff member thought they could "save her". Long shot for sure, but it is hard to believe she has not been found. I live and hunt in a rural area. My dogs are retrievers, not trained search dogs, but they can find any dead animal or remnant of a dead animal around. I know that snow and water mask scent, and perhaps that is why she has not been located.

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It seems to me that by now LE would have looked into all the employees of the Home. There hasn't been anything thus far to suggest such either. All we know is that she was last seen going north along the road, alone.

Pennington County SO on Twitter (Video)
UPDATE 4-19-19: We have not found Serenity Dennard after another long day of searching with 52 people. Two Colorado dog teams will resume their efforts Saturday. Serenity has been missing since February 3.
6:46 PM - 19 Apr 2019

On Friday, 52 searchers from 10 different agencies covered several areas combing the rough terrain for any sign of Serenity.

Officials say they have plotted out several areas she could have gone based on her size, age, the weather, and the terrain. They have officially cleared four of those areas.

"We keep on pushing out further and further from the Children's Home," said Lt. Kraig Wood with the Pennington County Sheriff's Office. "Right now our sections are going out about two miles and we will keep going out if need be, but right now, we want to really work on the most probable areas first."

[...]

The main focus of the search is the area north of the Children's Home. In addition to the search crews, they also brought in two dog teams from Colorado.

Rescue crews continue to search the rugged terrain on South Rockerville Road. They’re using their ‘grid strategy’ combing every foot.

[...]

On Friday, the 52 people from 10 law enforcement agencies were faced with jagged, sometimes impassible cliffs and rocks.

“Both the hillsides are very steep, a lot of the loose needles from the fall that have fallen down, we’ve already had a lot of people slip and stumble in that, but its very dangerous terrain, said Jay Evenson, a retired captain with the Sheriff’s Office.

[...]

“Our winds have been consistent, that helps us understand what the dogs might be seeing, and when they have interest,” said Chief Gail Schmidt of the Rockerville Volunteer Fire Department. “Those consistent winds, those warmer winds and drier weather have been perfect for the dogs to work.”

Crews say they have to work quickly, because growing grass could cover up anything that could be on the ground. Along with the search in the Black Hills, investigators continue to interview people, sift through social media, and follow all leads.

Pennington County SO on Twitter
Two Colorado dog teams and their handlers worked again today scouring the area without any sign of Serenity Dennard. The nine year old remains missing since February 3.
7:56 PM - 20 Apr 2019

If they don't find her this weekend, I wonder if there will be anymore organized searches. How many areas are there left that haven't been searched? If they can't find her within a 2 or 3 mile radius of the home, one has to wonder if she's simply not there---which means something other than she died of exposure must have happened. I wasn't big on the theory that someone must have seen her and taken her but I'm slowly changing my mind. Either that, or she made it back to the home and something happened there.