If trends hold, Astros could break through

Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander waves to fans after the team clinched the AL West by beating Seattle Mariners 7-1 at Minute Maid Park on Sept. 17, 2017, in Houston. Verlander was the winning pitcher in his home-field debut.

Photo: Elizabeth Conley /Houston Chronicle

The Houston Astros have waited a long time for this. These days, that might give them an edge.

Over the past decade, eight different franchises — the Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kansas City Royals, Golden State Warriors, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Mavericks, San Francisco Giants and New Orleans Saints — have ended championship droughts spanning at least 30 years in the three major American pro sports.

Most of them shared a few common characteristics. How do the Astros, who clinched the American League West this week, compare? Well, they check each of the following boxes:

A heartbreaking close call in the 1980s, and another in the 2000s: The numerology on this is sort of eerie. The Cubs blew a two-game lead against the Padres in the 1984 National League championship series, endured a long swoon, then in 2003 suffered through an even more painful meltdown against the Marlins when a World Series seemed in reach.

The Giants fell to the Athletics in the earthquake World Series in 1989, followed by a bit of a drought, then lost the seventh game of the 2002 World Series to the Angels.

The Seahawks lost to the Raiders in the 1983 AFC championship game, weren’t heard from (except for a conference change) for a couple of decades, then reemerged to lose to the Steelers in the Super Bowl following the 2005 season.

After the Mavericks pushed the Lakers to seven games in the 1988 Western Conference finals, they never got that close to a title until 2006, when they let the Heat come from behind to steal a championship.

The Cavaliers don’t quite fit the trend, because their conference finals disappointment came in 1992, but look at Craig Ehlo’s shorts in that clip of Michael Jordan beating them. It might as well have been the ’80s, and then the Cavs went into their own tailspin until losing to the Spurs in the 2007 Finals.

Each of those five teams finally got over the hump this decade. Could the Astros, who were outlasted by the Mets in 1986 and then fell to the White Sox in the 2005 World Series, be next?

Status as the sentimental favorite: What with the Billy Goat Curse and all, the Cubs were America’s team last October. The year before, the small-market, underdog Royals were hard to root against. In 2011, just a year removed from “The Decision,” the Mavericks were loved because they were playing LeBron James. And in 2010, New Orleans’ recovery efforts from Katrina made the Saints national darlings.

Each of those feel-good stories worked out. Now, as Houston cleans up from Harvey, the Astros should win any neutral fan’s emotional tiebreaker.

An old guy to rally around: The Saints had John Carney, who kicked during the regular season and stayed on to mentor his replacement on the way to the Super Bowl. The Mavericks had Jason Kidd, the Royals had Jeremy Guthrie and the Cavaliers had Richard Jefferson.

Each of them was at least 36 years old. Each of them entered that postseason having enjoyed distinguished careers with no championship rings. Each of them finally won one with a team that ended a long, long title drought.

Astros designated hitter Carlos Beltran is 40. He’s made nine All-Star teams, but he’s never won a World Series.

A kid who doesn’t know any better: The Seahawks had dynamic young safety Earl Thomas, who had just turned 24. The Cubs were sparked in part by 23-year-old Kyle Schwarber, the Royals got key World Series innings from 22-year-old Brandon Finnegan, and the 2010 World Series marked the beginning of the postseason exploits of the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, who was only 21.

This weekend is Astros shortstop Carlos Correa’s birthday. He will be 23.

A seasoned midseason acquisition: Midway through the 2010-11 season, the Mavericks signed cagey veteran Peja Stojakovic. In July of 2015, the Royals traded for do-it-all veteran Ben Zobrist. In July of 2016, the Cubs acquired flamethrowing veteran Aroldis Chapman.

The Astros waited a little longer than those teams did to make their move. But this month, they traded for Justin Verlander.

None of them were exactly prototypical. Neither is Jose Altuve, the 5-foot-6 spark plug who might just be the most valuable player in baseball this year. That doesn’t guarantee he will become a World Series legend, but he sure fits the mold.

Mike Finger has worked for the Express-News since 1999, writing about the Texas Longhorns, the Big 12, the NBA and the NFL before becoming a sports columnist. He's covered 13 Spurs postseasons, six Final Fours and more than a dozen college bowl games.