BlackBerry’s first day of trading as BBRY is off to a good start

Good morning CrackBerry Nation! It's Monday Feb 4th, and as planned, Research In Motion is now BlackBerry on the stock exchanges. The ticker symbol has changed from RIMM to BBRY on the Nasdaq, and from RIM to BB on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

And as much as I loathe short term trading, I have to say it's a nice beginning to have the stock up almost 6% in early trading today.

A big part of the stock movement is probably due to the Bernstein upgrade. Their analyst, Pierre Ferragu, has been covering the stock for a few years and is known on Wall Street as a huge bear. I've read lots of his reports before and I didn't always agree with his logic, but in the end Wall Street only remembers your call on the stock. So to have him flipping over to an "outperform" rating is significant.

I haven't seen the full report yet, but Reuters is reporting on it with the following headline quote: "We upgrade BlackBerry to outperform today as we believe BB10 is set for a strong launch."

Personally, I've now been using my Z10 for 5 days. I can't put it down. I love the device. Everything about it feels different in a very good way.

Plus I'm glad to hear from Chris U. that BB is committed to some early updates for some of the little glitches already identified. He mentioned it in an earlier news post here on CB. I think he was referring to items listed in the super-detailed Z10 review.

BlackBerry shares are getting a boost Monday morning from Bernstein Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who upped his rating on the company formerly called Research In Motion to Outperform, from Market Perform, with a new target of $22, up from $12.

In unveiling its first phones based on the new BlackBerry 10 operating system software last week, the company also changed its name; and today has adopted a new stock ticker, BBRY.

The new phones – the Z10 touch-screen smartphone and the Q10 with the traditional BlackBerry keyboard – have met with generally positive reviews, although the stock sold off last week on disappointment on the later-than-expected launch date for the phones in the U.S., with the Z10 to debut in March, with the Q10 delayed until April.

But Ferragu sees reason for optimism in the early enthusiastic response the phones have received in the U.K., where they are already on sale.

“We have grown more confident in the likely success of the Blackberry 10 launch, supported by low channel inventories, strong operator support and material pent up demand,” he writes in a research note. “Initial feedback we have received from distributors on the first days of sales is particularly positive. Investors now seemingly overlook the likely initial success of Blackberry 10. We expect new phones to swing Blackberry’s P&L into the black in [Q1 of FY 2014], and we do not expect the progressive decline in service revenue will either materially impact the company’s P&L in the short term, or in itself jeopardize the future of Blackberry.”

Ferragu remains skeptical that the company can produce a sustainable comeback, but adds that he thinks a successful launch “will increase the option value of credible positive outcomes like a stabilized niche positioning, the development of new business models, strategic partnerships or even an acquisition.”

The analyst says there are four reasons to think the new phones will produce better-than-expected results:

“Blackberry has drained channel inventories over the last 12 months and is in a very strong position to start shipping its new devices,” he writes. “Channel inventories came down by over 10 million units over the last 12 months, which means most distributors and operators will take on significant initial orders.”

“Blackberry 10 will propel up device gross margins.” He thinks the company has been selling high end devices at negative gross margins; he thinks the initial BB 10 shipments will have gross margins in the 30% range.

The BB 10 launch is supported by most operators.

He thinks initial corporate demand “will be strong,” adding that he has “anecdotal evidence that a number of corporate clients have been waiting for Blackberry 10 to refresh their installed base, which will support shipments meaningfully in the first months of the launch. If only 10% of Blackberry’s 30 million corporate users refresh their phone within the first 6 months of the launch, this would represent 3 million units alone.”

I had BBRY down a bit based on market reaction as a whole, but they're actually one of the few going against the market grain today. As I'm writing this, BBRY is ip 12.43%, and the index as a whole is down 1.3%.

You guys are very lucky with this brand new device while us in the USA waiting for this super phone with the new way of User Interface(HUB, Balance, Flow, Time Shift Camera and Video Chat with Share Screen). With Video Chat share screen, sorry video conference business you will be obsoleted some days! I hope BlackBerry patent this Video Chat Screen Share so that Android and iOS cannot copy it especially Samsung, the copy-cater.

Kevin or Adam must have taken the photo from a website. I didn't take it. Anyway, I have downloaded "Stocky" for my Z10 but I can't figure out how to make it update prices after I add a ticker. It's not that responsive either. But it was free. There has to be something better, but I haven't had time to play around.

Usually I don't care for stock apps on my phone. Why? Because I don't really care about the minute by minute stuff, so when I'm out I don't look at stock prices. Ever. When I'm home and doing some research I just use Yahoo Finance or S&P Capital IQ. Hope that helps.

It is great to see it moving back up but it still has over $2 of movement before it is at the spot before they announced it would not be available in the US until March. I wish i had money last week to buy more shares when it was down to $12.05.

I am confident that as the world has opportunity to see and touch and buy the phone that it will continue to grow.

Welcome to the real world Mr.Pierre Ferragu. This is Blackberry world and you are smart to jump on the band wagon before standing all alone in the jungle. Wait till you see the reception it is going to on Tuesday around the world.

CrackBerry is in no way Affiliated with BlackBerry. We take pride in our unbiased content, however do occasionally receive free products from vendors that we review or discuss. For more info click here.