TASK FORCE ON TERRORISM &
UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, D.C. 20515

THE IRAQI WMD CHALLENGE -- Myths and Reality

February 10, 1998

*

Nobody likes the idea of Saddam Hussein
having weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles capable of delivering
their lethal warheads. The ramifications of their potential use in anger
-- the numbers of fatalities and injured they might inflict -- are horrendous.
However, as the US is getting ready to bomb in Iraq in order to address
the challenge of that country's remaining WMD arsenal, one should examine
dispassionately what might be conceivably accomplished, and what would
be the ramifications of the massive bombing campaign the Clinton Administration
is advocating.

*

Despite Baghdad's protestations, Iraq does
have a small but very lethal operational arsenal of WMD and platforms capable
of delivering them throughout the Middle East and even beyond. Although
Iraq has been subjected to an unprecedented regimen of UN inspection and
destruction of strategic military programs since the end of the Gulf War
in the Spring of 1991, the international community has proven incapable
of learning the entire scope of the Iraqi programs for fielding weapons
of mass destruction, let alone eliminate these programs as mandated by
the Security Council.

Significantly, the first major independent
study of the possible magnitude of the Iraqi undeclared and concealed WMD
arsenal was not conducted until the Summer of 1994. For this study, the
BND (German Intelligence) relied on KNOWN Iraqi post-Gulf War illegal acquisitions
of technology, sub-systems, and strategic materials in Western Europe (mainly
Germany, Austria and Switzerland) to assess what could be done with these
acquisitions. Even without taking into consideration such diverse inputs
as Iraqi acquisitions from countries of the former Soviet Union, the PRC
and Iran, as well as rumored but unproven acquisitions in Europe, the results
of the BND study were startling for they pointed to several specific programs
that not only had the UN inspectors been unaware of in mid 1994, but they
have so far proven unable to discover and stop. For example, the Iraqi
purchase of a special kind of igniter, with a short shelf-life, for SCUD-type
warheads, strongly suggested that the Iraqis used these igniters for operational
SCUD- type missiles, as they are capable of increasing the range. The BND
thus concluded that it was "difficult to assess" the magnitude of the current
Iraqi weapons program. There was no doubt that not only "some of the material
equipment" was excluded from discovery and destruction by the UN, but certain
projects were being revived and run clandestinely.

A new approach to studying the Iraqi WMD
programs was adopted in the aftermath of the "defection" of Lt.Gen. Hussein
Kamal in the Summer of 1995. Originated as an audacious ploy to destroy
the anti-Saddam movement from within, the "defection" went sour when Baghdad
panicked over reports of contacts between Kamal and the CIA in Amman. Consequently,
Baghdad was compelled to surrender to the UN large quantities of material
Kamal might have divulged while in Amman. Consequently, Kamal and his brother
were lured back to Baghdad where they were promptly assassinated. Meanwhile,
the entire perception of the extent of the Iraqi WMD program had to be
reevaluated.

Most important was the realization that
there is an on going Iraqi program the UN inspections team is highly unlikely
to discover and stop. In January 1996, the assessment of the Israeli Military
Intelligence was that within the next four years, Iraq would have ten SCUD
launchers and some 150 SCUD-type missiles. Some of these missiles are to
be equipped with warheads containing WMD. A major aspect of the Iraqi program
as of the mid-1990s was the organization of a highly mobile transportation
system for the operational elements. Thus, by late 1997, the Iraqis were
capable of transferring a few thousand liters of biological materials to
new concealed sites within two or three weeks without supervision. As far
as Baghdad was concerned, once the materials were hidden, supervision may
be permitted to resume as usual. Another indication of an anticipated expansion
of Iraq's ballistic missile activities came in late 1997/early 1998 with
the appointment of two senior officers -- Abd-al-Rizzaq Shihab of the Army
and Muzahm Tassab al-Hassan of the Air Force -- as deputy heads of the
Military Industries authority. Both generals held senior command positions
of Iraqi missile forces during the Gulf War and are considered Iraq's leading
experts in ballistic missile operations. Moreover, during 1997, Iraqi military
units conducted several simulated deployments and launching of ballistic
missiles of the type and range Iraq is not permitted to have.

Meanwhile, despite the ongoing presence
of UN inspectors and the threat of resumed bombing, the Iraqi strategic
arsenal continued to expand as the current British Government's threat
assessment testifies. In early 1998, Iraq is known to possess 48 SCUD-type
missiles and six launchers. (Gen. Wafiq Samarraj, the former chief of Iraqi
Military Intelligence, knew of at least 45 SCUD-type missiles with range
of over 600 km and several others being repaired at the time of his defection
in 1994.) A large portion of the 45 BW warheads/bomb containers Iraq acknowledged
constructing in the late 1980s are believed to have survived the Gulf War
and still elude the UN inspectors. The British Government estimates that
the Iraqis still have 30 warheads capable of carrying chemical and\or biological
weapons' material. For these warheads and other weapons, Iraq has at least
8,400 liters of Anthrax, as well as 600 tons of chemicals that are sufficient
for the production of 200 tons of VX nerve gas -- where a single droplet
can kill. (Samarraj reported that in 1994 Iraq concealed 200 containers
with biological weapons, more than half of which are still considered in
operational condition.)

And while public attention is focused on
ballistic missiles, Iraq has even more effective and lethal platforms of
the delivery of its weapons of mass destruction. In late December 1996,
German intelligence confirmed that Iraqi weapons technicians developed
a drone described as "the little guy's cruise missile." This unmanned aircraft
is made of plastics and plywood -- simple and cheap to produce without
any tell-tale equipment that can attract the UN inspectors. The drone has
a range of about 700 kilometers and is equipped with a very accurate GPS
navigation system illegally purchased in the West. Each drone can carry
30 to 40 kilograms of biological or chemical warfare agents to the intended
target. It is almost impossible to detect this drone by radar because of
its size, slow speed and lack of metal parts. The BND's experts are most
alarmed by the Iraqi fielding of a version of this drone that can be also
launched from ships. Consequently, one cannot rule out the possibility
of an Iraqi-controlled commercial ship suddenly launching these drones
outside the coasts of Europe -- from where these missiles can reach and
threaten London, Paris or Berlin -- as well as the Atlantic coast of the
US.

Another type of chemical weapons known
to be in the Iraqi arsenal is "Agent 15" nerve agent. According to British
Government sources, Agent 15 is a non-lethal psychochemical nerve gas designed
to stupefy enemy forces. It is a derivative of BZ. The agent can be disseminated
in various forms -- from artillery and rocket warheads to pouring into
water supplies. Depending on the concentration, Agent 15 can cause weakness,
dizziness, disorientation, hallucinations and loss of co-ordination. At
the level of concentration likely to affect unprotected troops on a battlefield,
Agent 15 is expected to disorientate and disable soldiers for a relatively
short time (measured in hours). Iraq is known to have experimented with
BZ and various derivatives since at least 1985. The British learned that
Iraq had built up large stocks of an operational version -- Agent 15 --
only in late 1997.

Thus, Iraq still has a small, diverse,
but very deadly operational arsenal of WMD. If used operationally, the
Iraqi weapons of mass destruction can cause heavy casualties among both
civilian population and military forces not just in the Middle East, but
even in the US. The key warhead and bomb components are very small and
can be easily moved from one place of concealment to another. Furthermore,
if the bulky protective measures of these components are removed, at a
risk to the Iraqi troops and nearby population, the movement and concealment
of these key warhead and bomb components becomes even more easy. Moreover,
it is then virtually impossible to distinguish from afar between these
warheads and comparable high-explosive systems -- say, artillery shells.

Assuming that the US located these clandestine
WMD, it is still far from certain the US will be able to bomb and destroy
all the Iraqi operational weapons. And this has nothing to do with the
accuracy of aircraft or the penetrability of smart munitions. The problem
lies in the ruthlessness of Saddam's regime and his desperate clinging
to power. For example, what if the bulk of the chemical warhead components
are stored in, say, the Baghdad Presidential Palace -- two miles southeast
of the edge of the Baghdad West Airport. The eruption of any such warhead,
let alone a larger storage container, as a result of bomb damage will devastate
the heart of Baghdad -- killing countless innocent people. Is this a legitimate
outcome of a US bombing campaign? The argument that Saddam is to be blamed
for such a tragedy just because he had placed these weapons at the heart
of Baghdad carries water only up to a certain point. Besides, Washington
should dread the reverberations of such a justifiable act throughout the
Muslim World. And what about an Iraqi "retaliation" against a US city using
terrorists or a ship- borne drone?

*

Significantly, however, even if the US
and its allies will have managed to destroy the bulk of Saddam WMD operational
arsenal, this will provide only a short term solution. No bombing campaign
against Iraq, and even an occupation of that country for that matter, is
capable of destroying the hard core of Saddam Hussein's primary WMD development
and production programs. The reason is that under current conditions these
programs are run outside of Iraq -- mainly in Sudan and Libya, as well
as Algeria (storage of some hot nuclear stuff). Thus, once the bombing
campaign is over, the Iraqis can be expected to smuggle new weapons from
Iraq's development sites and production lines - sites that remain untouched
by allied bombing as well as unchecked by UN inspection teams. And, for
as long as Saddam Hussein remains in power, this charade called disarming
Saddam will continue.

One should not be surprised by this sad
state of affairs.

The transfer of Iraqi WMD overseas started
even before the outbreak of the Gulf War. Back in late 1990, when Baghdad
realized Iraq would be subjected to intense bombing, key sensitive elements
were smuggled out. Then, in the Spring of 1991, once the extent of the
post-War inspection regime became clarified, especially given the type
and amount of data provided to the West by numerous defectors, a second
round of hasty smuggling took place. Essentially, the core of the next-generation
projects of the Iraqi WMD programs was moved to safe-havens. A lot of know-how
and key subsystems were shipped out with the idea of building alternate
production facilities in the host countries.

Most important are the programs transferred
to Libya and Sudan -- two of Iraq's closest allies during the Gulf War
that have strong aspirations for WMD of their own. Libya, long struggling
to overcome embargoes and the cancellation of arrangements for the supply
of technology and systems from Western Europe, has been looking for the
Iraqi embargo-busting knowledge and for Iraqi proven solutions for Libyan
problems. Sudan needs WMD in order to hit the Black rebels in the south
and deter Western intervention against the Islamist terrorism empire. Hence,
Iraq found eager and willing partners for its efforts to circumvent the
world's campaign against its WMD.

While the initial movements of WMD stuff
were emergency measures or by- products of other considerations, Baghdad
reexamined its posture by late 1993. By then, Saddam Hussein had already
realized that the UN inspections were not going away, and that the US remained
determined to continue the policy of containment and sanctions. Moreover,
the US retaliation for the June 1993 narrowly averted an attempt on the
life of former President Bush by Iraqi intelligence convinced Baghdad that
there would be no reconciliation with the US in the foreseeable future.
Hence, Baghdad adopted a long term strategy to endure the global pressure.
In March 1994, Babil (a newspaper run by Saddam Hussein's eldest son Uday)
declared that it would be "desirable for the leaders of Iraq, Libya and
Sudan to hold a summit meeting ... and adopt a common stance" to meet the
challenges facing the Arab World.

Meanwhile, Iraq was reviving the international
support system for its WMD development and production programs. By late
1994, Iraq's secret purchasing system was completely restored. It was operating
energetically not only to just restore previous capabilities but to support
new projects -- mostly outside Iraq. Anticipating that the sanctions would
be lifted from Iraq, many European firms were rushing to grab a good share
of what used to be a very lucrative market. Presently, the Iraqi-run system
is made up of an endless and redundant web of Western firms and technology
plants, liaison people, banks and financial institutes, secret merchants
and middlemen -- so that it is virtually impossible to discover all components,
let alone bring down the system. The procurement system of the Iraqi intelligence
has been resurrected, it functions, and it feels good. The present system
has not only arose on the ruins of the previous one, but it has learned
and overcome all the errors of the system of the 1980s. Significantly,
virtually all the firms and plants that had worked for Iraq before the
Gulf War have already found their way into the fold of the new system.
This time however, many support and sustain programs in Libya and Sudan,
as well as in third countries from where the Iraqis ship the goods on their
own. Thus, when Lt.Gen. Hussein Kamal "defected" in the Summer of 1995,
he was bringing data of what was left behind in Iraq -- not on the wave
of the future already being constructed in Sudan and Libya.

*

SUDAN

The Iraqi-Sudanese strategic cooperation
dates back to the close alliance between the two countries during the Gulf
War. The Iraqi-Sudanese alliance has endured the close relations between
Khartoum and Tehran. Originally, Iraq established a major expeditionary
force in Sudan in order to strike Egypt and western Saudi Arabia. In late
August 1990, the Iraqi deployment included several South African made G-5
155mm guns equipped with both high-explosive and chemical shells, as well
as 14 SCUD-B launchers with several missiles each that were originally
deployed along the Red Sea coast across from Yanbu and Jeddah. In early
January 1991, the Iraqis delivered additional SCUD launchers to Sudan and
handed them over to the government. The Sudanese armed forces deployed
these launchers in northern Sudan. These SCUDs targeted southern Egypt,
including the Aswan High Dam. (By 1995, Sudan would ask Russia for spares
and expert technicians to fix its own SCUD missiles and other sub-systems.
The serial numbers and other technical data provided by Khartoum proves
that the Sudanese SCUD systems had been sold originally to Iraq.)

In March/April 1991, Iraqi Deputy Prime
Minister Tariq Aziz requested permission from Sudan's President Umar al-Bashir
to move Iraqi chemical weapons and additional SCUD missiles to Sudan in
order to circumvent their destruction by the UN. Al-Bashir agreed. Thus,
in the Summer of 1991, as UN inspections became inevitable, Iraq transferred
a large number of SCUDs, estimated at about 400 missiles, and chemical
weapons, for "safekeeping" in Yemen and Sudan. Soon afterwards, with Saudi
pressure on Yemen growing, the Iraqi ballistic missiles were shipped from
Yemen to Sudan. In 1993, Iraq sent additional chemical weapons to Sudan,
this time through Iran.

Meanwhile, Iraq also transferred in the
Summer of 1991 some nuclear material to Sudan for temporary storage. This
program continued into mid 1992 with fissionable material, documents, and
weapons' sub-systems being shipped via Jordan utilizing Sudanese diplomatic
mail privileges. For example, a truck carrying "furniture" from the Sudanese
Embassy in Iraq to Khartoum in mid January 1992 was actually loaded with
barrels of uranium. Among the Iraqi material sent to Sudan were approximately
27.5 pounds of 93% U-235 which had been originally supplied to Iraq by
France for use in the French-built Osiraq research reactor. (However, since
there are no nuclear facilities in Sudan, the bulk of the nuclear materials
was shipped forward to the Algerian reactor in Ain-Oussera -- a PRC-built
reactor with military/weapons development capacity. Algeria is still storing
the Iraqi nuclear equipment and radioactive materials.)

With the UN inspections continuing, Baghdad
committed itself to bolstering the regime in Khartoum -- a key storage
site for Iraq's strategic systems. By the Fall of 1993, a large number
of Iraqis moved into the area of the Red Sea mountain range -- in Madabay
in Khawr Ashraf, Port Sudan, in the region of Dalawat on the Red Sea near
Hala'ib, and the city of Tawker in region of Karnakanat. The Iraqis brought
into these installations high-tech equipment and computers, missiles, defense
systems, anti-aircraft systems and radar systems. By late 1993, the regions
surrounding these installations were experiencing strict security measures
and 24-hour armed patrols roam around it. In some areas, such as in the
Port Sudan area, shepherds and nomads were completely removed from security
zones with a 60 km circumference.

The Spring-Summer of 1995 saw the emergence
of an Iraqi-Iranian-Sudanese Axis. This Axis was the outcome of secret
contacts between Iraq and Sudan, culminating in the visit to Khartoum by
the Iraqi Social Affairs Minister Latif Nusayyif Jasim. In order to implement
this Axis agreement, about 20 intelligence officers were added to the Iraqi
Embassy in Khartoum (second only to the 26 operatives assigned to the Iraqi
embassy in Amman, Jordan). Many of these intelligence officers are involved
in sanctions busting via Sudan and Africa. Baghdad and Khartoum also reached
an agreement to implement a comprehensive plan for strategic cooperation
in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. The agreement included provisions
for the dispatch of Iraqi Air Force officers and other military experts
specialized in missiles, artillery, and ground battles in order to assist
Sudan in meeting the ramifications of the mounting crisis with Egypt. Baghdad
committed itself to supporting the Sudanese regime in what the Iraqis term
"a cover for foreign interference in Sudan."

Providing Sudan with rudimentary chemical
warfare capabilities was a major request from Bashir that Saddam Hussein
authorized. The deal followed a visit to Sudan of a high-level Iraqi delegation,
led by the Chief of the Chemical Weapons Directorate of the Iraqi Defense
Ministry. The delegation surveyed the sites Iraqi experts would have to
operate in. On their return to Baghdad, the delegation recommended a prudent
approach to meeting the needs of the Sudanese. Saddam conveyed the message
to Bashir and both presidents reached an agreement on CW cooperation.

Meanwhile, teams of Iraqi intelligence,
military and commando officers arrived in Khartoum in the Summer of 1995
to assist the Sudanese armed forces against what the Iraqis now called
"foreign intervention in Sudan." Officially, the Iraqi expeditionary units
had two tasks(1) to supervise and maintain the Iraqi strategic weapons
and military equipment stored in Sudan away from the UN inspection teams;
and (2) train the Sudanese in intelligence work and help reorganize the
Sudanese Army along the same lines as the Iraqi Republican Guard. By the
Fall, the impact of the Iraqi-Sudanese cooperation was apparent in the
performance of units fighting in the south and deployed near the Egyptian
border in the north-east.

Moreover, Iraqi Republican Troops were
sighted by rebels in southern Sudan in the Fall of 1995, fighting in the
Pibor area. About 120 Iraqi crews arrived in the area in stages along with
tanks bearing the insignia of Iraqi Republican Guard units. Iraqi artillery
forces were involved in the shelling of SPLA camps in Torit with Napalm
bombs, killing or wounding 260 people. Uthman Abd-al-Qadir visited Baghdad
-- reminding the Iraqis of Sudan's support during the Iran-Iraq War and
the Gulf War and requesting massive military support for Khartoum. Indeed,
Iraqi military equipment and supplies soon arrived in Khartoum, as additional
Republican Guard forces were preparing for direct participation in the
war in the south along with the Sudanese units they had trained. Significantly,
following Abd-al-Qadir's visit, Iraq deployed to Sudan some 50 "advanced
SCUD launchers" and a similar number of al-Hussayn missiles. In October
1995, Iranian and Iraqi engineers, including some missile experts, were
upgrading an old airfield in East Sudan for the arrival and storage of
additional strategic weapons from Iraq. The majority of the Iraqi SCUD-type
missiles were stored in a well protected and well concealed site within
the Port Sudan military compound in late 1997/early 1998.

The first joint Iraqi-Sudanese WMD project
was facilities initially readied for the handling and service of CW munitions
and ultimately the production of basic CW agents. The CW facility was built
during 1995 in an area near Wau, in the Bahr-el-Ghazal Province in south-western
Sudan, some 300 kilometers from the Uganda border. The key CW facility
is located in a big fruit production factory taken over by the military.
Although the Wau facility is controlled by the Sudanese military, Iraqi
technicians work there to supervise safety and security procedures. Iraqi
officers are also in charge of the gas storage site.

At first, the Iraqis sought to exhaust
stockpiles of mustard gas they had stored in Sudan since the Gulf War.
With a plausible Sudanese source for these munitions -- the Wau facility
-- the Iraqis began using chemical munitions in the Fall of 1995, months
before the Wau facility became operational. At first, planes piloted by
Iraqis dropped crude chemical munitions around Kadugli and in the Namang
mountains in southern Sudan. According to Sudanese opposition sources,
witnesses reported that "deaths and injuries occurred among residents"
and that "there was a big change in the color of the corpses and of animals
and trees." Comparable sightings were reported in Afghanistan and South-East
Asia. It was impossible to retrieve samples and more precise details because
of the region's remoteness. Intelligence reports identified the agents
used as low-quality Mustard taken from an early consignment shipped from
Iraq to Sudan immediately after the Gulf War.

Meanwhile, Iraq and Sudan built the chemical
weapons factory at a secret location near Wau. Production began in the
Fall of 1995. At first, an Iraqi team manufactured the Mustard gas. Gradually,
they handed over production to the Sudanese military. However, Iraqi technicians
remained responsible for final phases of the manufacture of the gas and
its safe storage. The Wau factory gave Khartoum the capability of using
"home-grown" mustard gas against the rebels, thus not implicating its allies
in chemical warfare. Toward the end of 1995, the Iraqi technicians were
able to develop a crude but reliable delivery system for the Mustard Gas
produced at Wau. Hence, the Iraqis could stop using their old bombs which
were now implicating Baghdad. Instead, the Sudanese introduced crude canisters
which they rolled off the back of An- 24/An-26 transport aircraft. Most
of these canisters missed their targets because of poor coordination between
Sudanese ground forces and the aircraft.

Soon after production started in Wau, the
Sudanese Armed Forces used Mustard Gas canisters against the Sudan People's
Liberation Army (SPLA) on at least two occasions in late 1995The first
was at Nimule and the second was at Kuya -- both sites are near Juba, Sudan's
southern capital then was defended by tens of thousand of government troops
against a tightening siege by the SPLA forces. Since late 1995, there have
been several reports alleging the use of chemical weapons in southern Sudan,
and with varying degrees of independent corroboration and specificity of
technical details. In 1997, several reports of use of Mustard Gas canisters
during bombing raids in eastern Sudan, mainly in the Tulushi/Tulus mountains
area, were corroborated independently.

Meanwhile, the Iraqis and the Sudanese
continued to maintain the Iraqi clandestine arsenal in operational status.
Some of the Iraqi equipment concealed in Sudan was examined and tested
in early 1996, and then buried in several underground sites west of Khartoum.
One such site is in Soba. The Iraqis and the Sudanese also carried out
tests of chemical agents in the desert not far from the Al-Thoura district
of Omdurman. In May, residents got sick when winds shifted suddenly and
carried residues into the city.

A new phase in the Iraqi cooperation with
Sudan began in early 1997. In mid January, Baghdad officially termed the
fighting in southern Sudan a US- Zionist conspiracy. "Washington does not
hide its intention to destroy Sudan and it has already taken a series of
hostile steps against Sudan, taking advantage of certain well-known developments
that have emerged." The Iraqi propaganda machine stated that "Khartoum
is being subjected to a US-Zionist scheme that seeks to achieve long-range
objectives. Most prominent among these objectives is to ignite a civil
war to divide this country, as a prelude to completely destroying Egypt
and suffocating it by taking control of the Nile River water." Significantly,
Baghdad concluded that "Sudan's national security is a vital part of pan-Arab
security. What Sudan is undergoing is a dangerous episode in a series played
by the enemies of the Arab Nation and the Muslims. These enemies are trying
to destroy any hope for pan-Arab renaissance, scientific advancement, and
unity. They are setting the appropriate conditions to establish Zionist-US
hegemony over the Arab world."

These were not empty words. In late February,
ships began arriving in Port Sudan loaded with Iraqi weapons removed from
a storage in Yemen. The first ship to arrive was the al-Obied under the
command of Captain Naji Asam Maki. It arrived from Mukalla (in Yemen) carrying,
among other arms, 600 anti- tank weapons. Sudan officially denied the arrival
of Iraqi weapons.

However, soon afterwards, in early March
1997, Sudan and Iraq pledged mutual support during talks here between Umar
al-Bashir and the visiting Iraqi presidential envoy Shabib al-Malik. Bashir
asked Malik to assure Saddam Hussein of Sudan's "support for Iraq and its
rejection of attempts for UN sanctions against that Arab country." Malik
expressed Iraq's support for Sudan "against the aggression it is facing"
and promised military and other help. Most important was the conclusion
reached by Iraqi military experts that only a ruthless total war has a
chance of defeating the Black rebels in southern Sudan. Now, Malik assured
Bashir that Iraq was ready to support and facilitate the required escalation
given certain specific conditions -- Iraq would build in Sudan sophisticated
factories for chemical and biological weapons from systems presently hidden
in Iraq and Sudan, as well as components acquired in the West and share
some of the products with the Sudanese Armed Forces.

Consequently, in early May 1997, Iraq began
to secretly transfer to Sudan equipment and materials for the production
of weapons of mass destruction. Saddam Hussein authorized the dispatch
to Sudan of various components he had so far kept hidden in Iraq as a strategic
reserve. Further more, Iraqi experts arrived in Sudan to begin preparing
the storage and production of biological weapons that Saddam originally
planned to use against the Kurds. At the same time, Iraqi teams conducted
simulation training on firing long-range SCUD missiles even though Iraq
is authorized to manufacture and own only short-range un-guided missiles.

By the Summer of 1997, Khartoum completed
the building of a new and far more sophisticated chemical weapons production
factory in the region of Kafuri, north of Khartoum on the banks of the
Blue Nile. A key strategic installation, the Kafuri facility is under the
direct command of Brigadier Bakri Hassan Salih, Sudan's Chief of Security
Forces. Moreover, two NIF "ideological officials" -- Imad Hussayn and Jamal
Zaatan -- supervise the activities in Kafuri on behalf of Hassan al-Turabi.
The Kafuri facility is comprised of five separate departments -- laboratories
and test-run/prototype production sites for both chemical weapons (including
nerve agents) and biological weapons, as well as storage sites for both
bulk chemicals and loaded weapons (both chemical and biological). Initial
test runs of some of the production processes of chemical weapons, most
likely nerve agents, already has taken place. Among the chemical weapons
tested in Kafuri are 122mm and 152mm artillery shells as well as rocket
and tactical missile warheads. In building this factory, the Sudanese relied
on technical assistance from Iraq and Iran. Additional expertise was provided
by experts and technicians from Egypt, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Russia who
were recruited by Iraqi intelligence on behalf of the Sudanese. The key
experts are residing in a luxurious dormitory inside the compound.

The Iraqis also construct a separate facility
for the production and weaponization of large quantities of chemical agents.
In the Spring of 1996, work already started on a production facility in
the Yarmook facility in the Mayu area, south of Khartoum. The first phase
of the complex was commissioned on August 15, 1996, and the entire complex
was in virtual operational status in the Fall of 1997. Formally known as
The Yarmook Industrial Complex, the military-controlled strategic installations
cover an area of 10x20 kms in al- Shagara, beyond southern Khartoum. There
are over 300 small buildings and sheds in seven clusters in the compound.
The complex includes a production line for chemical agents, as well as
production facilities for military equipment and weapons connected with
the use of chemical weapons (warheads, bombs, and cannisters, as well as
protective gears, special modifications to combat vehicles carrying these
weapons, etc.).

The Yarmook production lines for chemical
agents are a derivative of comparable facilities built in Iraq. The key
production facilities are comprised of German-made machines acquired by
Iraqi intelligence and smuggled via Bulgaria. Additional equipment, mainly
computers, were purchased by the Iraqis in France. In addition, the compound
includes a special medical clinic, sport facilities, a mosque, a high security
living site where Muslim foreign experts from Iraq, Iran, and Bulgaria
live in two dormitories, guest houses for senior officials from Iraq and
Iran (who are involved in these projects and make frequent visits to Sudan),
as well as a small farm ensuring the supply of fresh milk, vegetables and
dates (independent of the chronic shortages afflicting Sudan).

Anticipating large volume production, the
Sudanese authorities and the Iraqi experts also began the construction
of well protected underground storage sites south of Jebel Awlia (White
Nile Province), the Kerari area (north of Omdurman) Shambat al-Araadi (north
of Khartoum North), an area west of the Hrriyya bridge (Khartoum), an area
near the Horse Race Course Club (in Khartoum South), Green Village (New
Development area near Khartoum), as well as in Gedaref, al-Fau, and Shendi.
The Sudanese military has recently begun training pilots and artillery
officers in the maintaining and use of chemical weapons in a special school
set up in the Wadi Seidna military compound (north of Omdurman). Another
unique center for the development of chemical weapons for use by Islamist
terrorists, mainly those affiliated with Usamah bin-Ladin, is being built
near the Islamic Center in Soba (soth west of Khartoum). According to Sudanese
opposition sources, Khartoum's plans call for the Kafuri and Mayu installations
to go into full production sometimes in 1999. The Iraqi and Iranian experts
anticipate the Kafuri installations to be largely operational in the first
half of 1999, and the Mayu production and weaponization facilities to be
operational in the second half of that year.

Khartoum's self-confidence in its growing
chemical warfare capabilities came to light in mid November 1997. Sudan
formally threatened Uganda with strikes with chemical weapons if it continued
to support the Christian Black rebels. This warning came despite Kampala's
previous denials of cooperation with the sudanese rebels and Khartoum's
adamant denials of CW capabilities or use.

*

LIBYA

Although ultimately decisive, the Iraqi
involvement in the Libyan WMD program has been complex and at times contradictory.
Back during the 1980s, the Libyans ran a massive development and production
program of their own. For a while, the Libyans closely cooperated with
both the Iranians and the Syrians -- both enemies of Iraq. At the same
time, however, Libya relied on the same West European suppliers as Iraq
did. Moreover, key middlemen, such as Ihsan Barbouti, served both the Iraqi
and the Libyan WMD programs. During the mid- 1980s, the Libyans were out-spending
the Iraqis, and recruiters of Libyan intelligence were offering huge payments
in effort to entice key Egyptian, Iraqi and European scientists working
in Iraq to transfer to Libya. Baghdad was apprehensive about the Libyan
practices.

By the time the Gulf Crisis erupted in
1990, several Iraqi researchers were already working in Libya as individuals,
as were several foreign scientists who had worked in Iraq beforehand. Most
were working on Chemical weapons projects, primarily in Rabta. At first
Saddam reluctant to share with Qadhafi some of the unique achievements
of the Iraqis. However, with pressure from UN inspections mounting, and
with intelligence leaking from defectors, Iraq had no alternative but to
transfer more and more sensitive projects to Libya as the sole venue for
their continuation. Although Sudan was glad to receive anything Iraq had
to offer, it had such an abysmal scientific- technological infrastructure
that it could not sustain the more sophisticated Iraqi programs. Thus,
with not too many takers of the Iraqi systems, Libya would have to do.
Meanwhile, Qadhafi was most interested in receiving extensive help from
Iraqi scientists for his own covert, biological, weapons program and conditioned
his support for Saddam on cooperation in this field. Thus, since the early
1990s, Iraqi scientists have been working in Libya in order to continue
the key Iraqi research and production programs into advanced and next generation
CW and BW.

At first, Baghdad considered the cooperation
with Tripoli a temporary necessity. For a while, in the early 1990s, Iraq
did not transfer complete projects to Libya. Consequently, several scientists
and engineers from the Iraqi military industries were commuting between
Iraq and Libya via Amman. They were using new passports with false names
and occupations. However, as the contacts were expanding and the Libyans
were being exposed to a wider variety of Iraqi programs, Tripoli decided
to formalize and expand the cooperation. A special committee of the Libyan
defense establishment arrived in Baghdad and negotiated a comprehensive
agreement on expanded cooperation in conventional, chemical and biological
weaponry. In accordance with these agreements, the Libyans signed contracts
with several Iraqi military industry experts. These contracts were drawn
as if they were academic invitations for Iraqi professors to lecture in
Libyan universities and institutions. At the same time, however, the key
Iraqi program equipment, systems and elements remained concealed inside
Iraq in anticipation for the end of the UN inspections so that WMD development
and production can be resumed.

Meanwhile, Baghdad at first drew the line
concerning the Iraqi nuclear program. Lingering doubts concerning Libya's
long-term strategic cooperation with Syria and Iran prevailed, and Iraq
would take no chances. In 1991-92, Iraqi intelligence feared a Libyan use
of financial enticements as an inducement for defections of Iraqi nuclear
scientists to the point of undertaking extreme measures to prevent such
a trend.

For example, in July 1992, Iraqi agents
shot and killed in Amman, Jordan, Muayad Hassan Naji Janabi -- an Iraqi
nuclear scientist. Janabi worked for the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission
until 1986, when he was transferred to the Ministry of Military Industries.
In 1992, Janabi was on vacation in Jordan. However, he was shot when on
his way to pick up Tunisian visas for transit to Libya. He had been offered
a "teaching position" at "an atomic institute" in Libya. Baghdad must have
been worried because Janabi was supposed to return to Iraq a week earlier
and rumors surfaced he had attempted to get to the UK and the US, and failed
to get academic visas. By then, Saddam Hussein had banned key personnel
in the military-industrial system from leaving Iraq without permission,
and fearing that Janabi would not reveal Iraqi nuclear weapons program
secrets, he was shot by two Iraqi agents. The two Iraqis were arrested
for the assassination but quickly released and sent to Baghdad.

However, by the mid 1990s, Baghdad could
no longer be selective in its cooperation with Libya. The BND's 1994 studies
of the Iraqi procurement system in Europe was unsettling for it threatened
Iraq's ability to revive key WMD programs just as the Iraqi system was
being restored to its pre-Gulf War magnitude. Moreover, the UN inspection
regime was beginning to grasp the complexity of the Iraqi challenge. Indeed,
even before the Summer 1995 "defection" of Lt.Gen. Hussein Kamal, the UN
was increasing its efforts to locate hidden stuff. As discussed above,
Kamal's "defection" was prompted by Baghdad's apprehension that the UN
was capitalizing on data provided by genuine defectors in order to zero
in on Iraq's hidden WMD facilities. For example, Iraq's biological facilities
were first subjected to a meaningful inspection in April 1995, on the eve
of the "defection." Even though by then, Baghdad had already hidden its
biological weapons cache and destroyed all evidence of its existence, the
mere UN visit to the abandoned sites was too close for comfort.

Meanwhile, with the Iraqi-Libyan cooperation
in chemical weapons development and production going well, Saddam authorized
already in the Summer/Fall of 1994 the move of other weapons programs to
Libya. Arrangements for closer cooperation were quickly made.

In January 1995, Iraq and Libya signed
a major agreement whereby Iraqi specialists will work at a secret Libyan
establishment on the development of a long-range ballistic missiles with
range of about 1,000 km. A senior Iraqi Trade Ministry official, Hajem
Attiya Salma arrived in Tripoli for final discussions with AbdAllah Hijazi,
the head of Libya's Scientific Research authorities. In the agreement reached,
Qadhafi agreed to pay the salaries of the Iraqi experts -- some $1,200
a month -- as well as finance the acquisition of Western technology. Moreover,
the Iraqis were promised access to the Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean
missile technology Libya had already acquired. Baghdad promised to share
all the experience acquired in the Gulf War. Iraq did not have much alternative.
Incapable of working, the Iraqi design teams built around experts trained
at the best European and Russian establishments were falling apart. Now
Qadhafi was offering to fund and provide cover for the revival of the al-Hussein
and Badr missiles under the cover of the Libyan al-Fatakh program.

Meanwhile, the Libyans were most interested
in the Iraqi experience with biological weapons, particularly the advanced
stages of the militarization projects. In the ensuing negotiations, Baghdad
acknowledged that Iraq still possessed several biological weapons and warheads
for them. The Iraqis would share these technologies with the Libyans provided
that Tripoli agreed to also sustain and fund the revival of the Iraqi military
nuclear program. By 1995, some of the Iraqi nuclear materials were being
held in Algeria while the key systems and design elements were being hidden
all over Iraq in dormant state. Iraqi experts were apprehensive that the
lack of proper maintenance and storage conditions under the sand in desert
temperatures were destroying the sophisticated equipment. Hence, the Iraqi
negotiators suggested that Iraqi nuclear fuel could reach Libya by sea
within weeks after the signing of an agreement, and that Iraqi experts
in Libya would then be able to begin enriching it after installing more
small or medium-sized kilns/furnaces.

As expected by the Iraqis, the lure of
nuclear weapons was irresistible for Qadhafi. A high-level Libyan delegation
led by Major Raad Bin-Id al-Daffi from the Libyan Engineering and Military
Industrialization arrived in Baghdad on August 30, 1995. They negotiated
with the Iraqis a comprehensive agreement that still serves as the cornerstone
of the Iraqi-Libyan strategic and military cooperation. The agreement stipulated
the extent to which Libya would go to assist Iraq in the expansion of the
Iraqis' own WMD programs as well as in evading the UN stringent surveillance
of Iraq's military plants.

The first step was the quick transfer to
Libya of an Iraqi military nuclear project that numerous Arab and European
experts described as being "in its final stages". By then, after Kamal's
"defection" went sour, Saddam gave up on keeping the key elements of the
WMD programs in Iraq and ordered their swift transfer to Libya before the
UN closed in on them. Hence, several experts and equipment were immediately
dispatched to Libya to prepare for the transfer of the nuclear program.

The main item Baghdad was adamant on saving
was a limited quantity of semi-enriched nuclear fuel transferred to the
Aba Agricultural and Scientific Research Center, east of Baghdad, under
the direct supervision of Lt.Gen Amir Rashid, director the Iraqi Military
Industrialization Organization (MIO). The initial transfer was made possible
by the suspension of UN surveillance of this center after the Iraqis had
moved its equipment to Abu-Ghurayb region near Baghdad. In the meantime,
Iraq was hiding the nuclear fuel in large underground storage facilities
near the Aba center. After conditioning the nuclear material for transportation,
it was sent by sea to Libya within weeks.

Meanwhile, a high-level MIO delegation
headed by Dr. Jafar Diya Jafar, one of Iraq's leading nuclear scientists,
arrived in Libya in mid October 1995 to oversee the installation of the
small nuclear furnaces. The Iraqi nuclear program would be located at Sidi
Abu Zurayq in the desert 380 km southwest of Tripoli. By the end of 1995,
the MIO experts began enriching the Iraqi nuclear material having successfully
installed the small- and medium-sized kilns/furnaces there.

The most important indication of the intimate
strategic cooperation between Baghdad and Tripoli was in Western Europe.
Since the mid 1990s, Iraqi intelligence has been diverting purchases of
dual-use and sensitive technologies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland
to Libya. In the process, Libyan intelligence was given access to the Iraqis'
most secure shipment routes -- where exported goods are shipped to Bulgaria
where local companies are identified as the end-users, and from where the
goods are forwarded illegally to Iraq and now also Libya. Furthermore,
starting the mid 1990s, Iraqi intelligence has been assisting Russian and
other ex-Soviet scientists to acquire third-country passports in Central
and Latin America so they can travel to and work in Iraq. Following the
new cooperation agreements, Iraqi intelligence began sending these scientists
to Libya for work on the joint Iraqi-Libyan WMD projects. Honduras was
the site of a major program in 1995- 96. Additional Iraqi intelligence
operatives, all experts in the procurement of high-technology, arrived
in Germany in early 1996. They began a still ongoing effort to revive dormant
relationships as well as establish new ones. However, the reorganized Iraqi
procurement system is now diverting the bulk of the goods to Libya rather
than Iraq.

The first results of the January 1995 ballistic
missile agreement were already showing by the Summer of that year. Using
Western-made systems and computers smuggled from both Iraq and Europe,
the highly experienced Iraqis succeeded to make sense in the Libyan convoluted
missile program -- integrating the inputs and technologies from the numerous
and often incompatible foreign sources. In the second half of 1996, the
Iraqi scientists and know-how provided such a boost to the Libyan ballistic
missile program, that NATO's threat assessment had to be revised. The new
assessment, NATO Report MC 161/96, concludes that Libya could be in possession
of medium-range ballistic nuclear missiles pointed at the NATO Mediterranean
flank by the year 2006. The NATO study predicts that within a decade, Qadhafi's
Libya will have medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of between
1,000 and 3,000 km that can be fitted with nuclear, chemical, or bacteriological
warheads.

In late 1995, Saddam Hussein finally relented
and authorized the transfer to Libya the secrets of Iraq's most sensitive
armament programs -- particularly the biological weapons program, which
Qadhafi's wanted most. With the UN inspections now expected to remain in
Iraq for the foreseeable future, Baghdad decided to retain in Iraq only
the operational biological bombs and warheads, as well as the equipment
required to sustain them in operational posture. In early 1996, Saddam
ordered that the surviving sophisticated development and production systems
as well as the extensive know how and related documentation would be transferred
to Libya. The large extent of the Iraqi biological warfare effort and the
huge magnitude of the systems and documentation that have eluded the UN
inspections can be deduced from the fact that it took the Iraqis more than
a year to collect their material and prepare it for clandestine shipment
to Libya. Only then, once Baghdad was ready to begin the transfer of the
BW program to Libya, was Tripoli notified. The framework for the new deal
between Libya and Iraq was signed in May during a visit to Baghdad by members
of a Libyan industrialists' organization. Soon afterwards, high-level Libyan
delegations arrived in Baghdad in mid 1997 to discuss the modalities of
the upgrading of the Iraqi support for, and participation in, the Libyan
WMD program. On the basis of these discussions, Baghdad and Tripoli finalized
the signing of the May 1997 agreement that still dominates their expanding
strategic cooperation.

Between late 1997 and early 1998, on the
basis of this latest agreement, Iraq undertook two distinct moves that,
once completed, would dramatically alter Libya's WMD capabilities.

First, starting late 1997, Baghdad moved
to dramatically upgrade the Libyan Chemical Weapons programs. Senior Iraqi
scientists with experience in CW production joined other Iraqi researchers
some of whom have been in Libya since the 1991 Gulf War, working on CW
projects first in Rabta and presently in the plant inside a mountain at
Tarhunah, 60 km south-east of Tripoli. The Iraqis are experts in the production
of nerve agents and other chemical weapons. The Iraqis' primary contribution
is in expediting the move from the research and development phase to the
mass production of operational weapons. Once integrated into the Libyan
CW program, the Iraqi expertise will enable Libya to achieve self-sufficiency
in the production of chemical weapons. Given the current pace of construction
in the underground chemical production plant near Tarhunah, the plant can
become operational by the year 2000.

The second move was providing Libya with
the key to operational Biological Weapons. About a dozen Iraqi scientists
involved in biological research arrived in Libya around the beginning of
1998, where special living quarters have been arranged for them. They are
to help the Libyans develop a new biological warfare complex under the
guise of a Tripoli-area medical facility called General Health Laboratories.
The Libyan biological warfare program is believed to be codenamed Ibn Hayan.
Since this program will be based in its entirety on the Iraqi covert program
to develop biological weapons, the Iraqi experts are expected to reach
the weaponization phase quite quickly. Libya is interested in bombs and
missile warheads with anthrax and botulism agents. For the running of the
Ibn Hayan project, Qadhafi established a special office within the Libyan
Ministry of Defense that reports directly to him. The program has been
given the highest possible priority by Qadhafi and both Libyan and Iraqi
procurement operatives throughout the world have been told to spare no
funds in order to expedite the purchase of the sub- systems the Iraqi experts
require for the "weaponization" programs.

*

And so, the US is planning an instant-gratification
bombing campaign that would neither destroy Iraq's WMD operational capabilities
nor touch its main WMD production lines in Libya and Sudan.

At the same time, the strategic mega-trends
in the Middle East, exacerbated by the current crisis environment, entice
a dramatic breakout in the form of a regional war. Saddam Hussein is not
the only local leader aspiring for war as the best way out of a political
deadlock. In the case of Iraq, with the entire Iraqi Armed Forces -- from
tanks and artillery pieces to aircraft, and from ammunition stockpiles
to fuel dumps -- high on the US target list, Baghdad has a special incentive
to "lose" them in heroic martyrdom -- say, spearheading and instigating
a regional war with Israel -- rather than have them destroyed by US bombs
and missiles. There are enough non-state entities -- from Arafat's pro-Iraq
al-Fatah forces to the Islamist HAMAS, HizbAllah and Islamic Jihad -- who
would gladly provide the spectacular and lethal provocation required to
spark the cataclysmic eruption.

No WMD are required to set the Muslim World
ablaze.

Meanwhile, the panic afflicting Israel
only reduces Jerusalem's ability to make a realistic threat assessment,
and formulate its strategy in a cool and calculated manner. And the US
bombing campaign will only add some explosives and fuel to the flames.
Yossef Bodansky