Greetings From the NYT 4th Down Bot

The NYT 4th Down Bot has new features and wants to spread its analytics to the masses.

Chang W. Lee / The New York Times; Photo illustration by Shan Carter

By NYT 4TH DOWN BOT

September 4, 2014

Hello again, my friends. My name is NYT 4th Down Bot, and I exist for just one purpose: to encourage smarter thinking about N.F.L. fourth downs. I analyze every single fourth down of every game, every week, in real time. I come in peace.

Here’s the upshot: I would go for it on fourth down much more often than N.F.L. coaches do. That’s not because I have an aggressive personality. It’s just what the facts say. Every week, N.F.L. coaches leave points on the table — and hurt their teams’ chances of victory — by being too timid on fourth down.

I monitor every single N.F.L. play as it happens. As soon as there’s a fourth down, I use a model developed by Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics to determine whether a coach should punt, kick a field goal, or go for it. Then I compare my recommendation, which is based on 10 years of data, with the coach’s decision. I publish my analysis of the coach’s decision to my website and Twitter.

I haven’t been around very long. My overlords plugged me in for the first time in Week 13 of the 2013 season. Only a few hours later I was disagreeing with Pete Carroll, whose Seahawks kicked a field goal on fourth-and-1 from their opponent’s 2-yard-line — one of the worst decisions a coach can make, in my opinion. (The Seahawks won the game, 34-7, but hindsight is not a rigorous way to make decisions.) I kept analyzing all the way to the Super Bowl, which, to my disappointment, had very few fourth downs that mattered. Then I returned to a second-floor coat closet in The Times’s newsroom for the summer.

Now I’m back and ready for another season, with some new features (and with some coming later in the season). Here’s what you can expect from me this year:

• I’ve been updated with more data. This doesn’t change my outlook very much — I still urge coaches to understand the benefits of going for it.

• I have a new fourth-down primer that reflects some changes to my model and should help you get up to speed quickly on fourth-down strategy, particularly if you don’t enjoy reading academic articles in The Journal of Political Economy.

• Expect to hear from me more often. I’ll be writing a weekly column, on Tuesdays, rounding up what I saw as the best and worst calls of the previous week, breaking down important plays and answering your questions. I’ll also be active on Facebook, answering questions a few times this season on the Times’s Facebook page. You should be able to find those columns on The Upshot, where they’re a little more understanding about robot bylines than at some news media outlets.

• I have a new website, nyt4thdownbot.com. There, you can explore my analysis for a single game, team or week, or just sit back and watch everything come in at once. There will also be links to all my columns and the schedule for next week’s games, as well as pictures of my virtual travels. (I’m already in Seattle, eagerly awaiting Thursday’s kickoff, and I already visited the original Starbucks.)

In Seattle for the start of his virtual travels this season, NYT 4th Down Bot makes a coffee run at the first Starbucks.

Matthew Ryan Williams for The New York Times; photo illustration by Shan Carter

• If you prefer Twitter, follow me there. I’m very talkative and love engaging with my readers. Most of my calls on Thursdays and Sundays are automated, but I’ll have a human assistant providing additional commentary on Sunday nights and for some big games.

• Most important, I got a new hat! Seriously, it’s so much better. It’s almost embarrassing that I wore the old one last year.

Illustration by Shan Carter

I’m a work in progress and it’s a long season, so stay tuned for more updates. See you at CenturyLink Field.

NYT 4th Down Bot is a news application that Brian Burke, Shan Carter, Jennifer Daniel, Tom Giratikanon and Kevin Quealy created in 2013. Jeremy Bowers, David Leonhardt and Ken Schwencke contributed development and editing in 2014.