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MLB Picks

MLB Betting: Over/Under Report for May

We are almost to the end of May, so it is time to look at the top ‘over’ and ‘under’ teams so far. The Angels top the MLB ‘over’ list while the Diamondbacks have made ‘under’ players happy.

With only one week left in the month of May, we are nearing the one-third point of the Major League Baseball season, so it is time to take a look are who the top ‘over’ and ‘under’ teams have been thus far to help total players decide on their MLB picks for the near future.

Before getting into the specifics of those teams, first note that the ‘unders’ have not been winning at the same rate in MLB as they usually have, at least not yet, as there have almost always been more games going ‘under’ than ‘over’ in previous seasons. So far in 2013 though, it is the ‘over’ that has gone 350-316-28, 52.6 percent. Keep in mind however that percentage was over 54 percent for the ‘over’ a couple of weeks ago, so as expected, the ‘under’ is making a comeback.

With that being said, there are still currently six teams with ‘over’ percentages of over 60 percent with a shade more than two-thirds of the season remaining compared to only two teams with ‘under’ percentages greater than 60 percent and only four teams with ‘under’ percentages greater than 59.percent.

Top ‘Over’ Teams
Los Angeles Angels (31-16, 66.0%): The Angels may be the biggest disappointment in baseball this year when looking at their record relative to their payroll, but they are starting to heat up as they have won five straight games as of this writing, and as you would expect given their ‘over’ record, the winning streak has been fueled by the offense averaging a whopping 8..40 runs while batting .318 over the five games. That raises the Angels’ scoring average to 4.53 runs per game for the season, but the pitching ranks just 27th in the Major Leagues with a 4.57 team ERA.

Houston Astros (29-16-2, 64.4%): Some may be surprised to see the Astros having so much ‘over’ success, but it makes much more sense when you consider that the biggest reason for it has been terrible pitching, as Houston ranks dead last in the majors with a disgraceful 5.40 ERA, and the pitching staff also ranks last in WHIP (1.60) and second to last in Quality Starts (29). Ace Bud Norris has a good enough 3.86 ERA, but the next best ERA among the starters is just the 4.63 for Lucas Harrell. The offense is only producing 3.94 runs per game, but because of the pitching, all Houston games are still averaging 9.77 runs combined, which has obviously been outperforming the posted totals on Astros’ games.

Detroit Tigers (28-16-1, 63.6%): This is not really a surprise despite the Tigers having three excellent front line starters in Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez, as the offense has more than compensated for that fine pitching on the ‘over’ front by leading the Major Leagues in scoring with 5.44 runs per game and in batting at .285 while also ranking second in team OPS at .790. Last year’s triple crown winner Miguel Cabrera is threatening to do it again, batting .391 with 14 home runs and 55 RBI through 45 games and that makes him one of four .300 hitters currently in the Detroit lineup.. Also, while the starting pitchers have been great, the bullpen has contributed to the ‘over’ success with a high 3.85 ERA.

Tampa Bay Rays (26-15-5, 63.4%):This one is a surprise as the Tampa Bay ‘over’ is on a 19-5 run as of this writing despite having a seemingly weak bottom half of the batting order after Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria in the third and fourth spots in the lineup. And yet, this very top-heavy lineup is ranked fifth in the majors with 4.83 runs per game and seventh in OPS at .754. Another contributing factor to the unexpected ‘over’ success however has been the pitching not being nearly as good as in past years, as the Rays rank 23rd in team ERA at 4.36 and having David Price on the Disabled List certainly does not help matters.

Oakland Athletics (30-18, 62.5%): This one is another surprise, although with all Oakland games averaging a combined 8.90 runs this season, part of the reason for the ‘over’ success has been low posted totals, especially when the Athletics have played in their spacious home stadium. Then again, Coco Crisp just came off the Disabled List and Yoenis Cespedes has started to heat up since Crisp’s return after probably pressing while attempting to carry the team in his absence, so perhaps the A’s can start scoring runs again like they were early in the season. The pitching has been rater disappointing as the starters have a cumulative ERA of 4.69, with the young pitchers that pitched so well last season having a tough time following that up.

New York Mets (26-17-1, 60.5%): While Matt Harvey has pitched like a Cy Young Award candidate, the rest of the Mets’ pitching staff has been pretty awful and as a result, they rank 25th with a 4.51 team ERA. Just imagine how bad that figure would be if not for Harvey’s 1.93 ERA! The bullpen has been atrocious, ranking dead last in the National League with a 4.73 ERA. The offense has not been great, but it has not been totally disgusting either while producing 4.11 runs per game which has apparently been good enough to allow the ‘over’ to cash often with the pitching breaking down.

Top ‘Under’ Teams
Arizona Diamondbacks (29-16-2, 64.4%): You may recall last month that we listed the Diamondbacks as live longshots at 40/1 odds to win the World Series because of their fine young pitching, and that pitching currently has them tied for first place. While Patrick Corbin has probably been the biggest story, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy have all contributed to Arizona ranking fourth in the majors with a 3.32 ERA, keying its ‘under’ success. The offense has been much more erratic while ranking 20th in runs scored and 17th in OPS, further giving the ‘under’ a helping hand.

Texas Rangers (28-17-2, 62.2%): The Rangers have been known for their offense in recent years, but this season Cy Young hopeful Yu Darvish spearheads a pitching staff that is sixth in the majors with a 3.48 ERA. Now the offense is still there at 4.62 runs per game to rank ninth in the majors, but because of the Rangers’ reputation they usually play to inflated totals, and their games this year are only averaging a combined 8.21 runs, as not only have the starters been good but the bullpen ranks fourth in the American League with a 3.23 ERA, and closer Joe Nathan has not allowed many tack-on runs while going 14-for-14 in save chances.

Chicago White Sox (25-17-3, 59.5%): The White Sox have that combination that every ‘under’ player wants to see in very good pitching and weak hitting. Chicago is fourth in the American League in ERA at 3.67 as they have three regular starters in Chris Sale (2.53), Jake Peavy (3.31) and Jose Quintana (3.48) with an ERA below 4.00, and Addison Reed has been a nice find as the closer, posting a 2.14 ERA while going 16-for-17 in save chances. The offense however ranks 25th in the majors in scoring at 3.69 runs per game, 26th in batting at .240 and 27th in OPS at .680, with the end result being White Sox games averaging just 7.71 combined runs this year.

Miami Marlins (26-18-3, 59.1%): The Marlins are on course for having one of the worst offenses in history, as an off-season fire sale left them with no real offensive threat besides Giancarlo Stanton, and he has been on the Disabled List for most of the year. As a result, Miami is averaging a pathetic 2.66 runs per game with a .222 batting average, .599 OPS and 23 total home runs to rank dead last in the majors in all four of those categories! The Marlins do have some good young arms on the pitching staff however, especially in the Cuban born Jose Fernandez, and that has also helped keep their games low scoring.