CPC: ENSO-Neutral to Persist Through Spring

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during October, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although it notes that across the western half of the Pacific, the oceanic heat content rose from near average to slightly above-average due to eastward shift of the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, the CPC says atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral continuing.

"The majority of model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014," notes CPC. "Though confidence is highest for ENSO-neutral, there are also growing probabilities for warm conditions (relative to cool conditions) toward the spring/summer 2014. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014."