Controversial government plans to reintroduce weekly waste collections could lead to more than 1 million extra tonnes of recyclable material being sent to landfill each year, according to the government's own analysis.

This would reduce the UK's overall recycling rate by several percentage points and raise serious questions about its ability to meet EU recycling and landfill diversion targets.

Significantly, the change would cost councils £530m over the next four years, the analysis says, because councils would have to run more collection vehicles and pay extra disposal costs. The figures are revealed today by environment business magazine the Ends Report, and are based on figures provided by the government's waste quango, Wrap.

More than 170 English councils (48%) have fortnightly collections of "black bag" rubbish, which have been hailed for increasing recycling rates. Evidence shows that less frequent rubbish collections encourage people to recycle more in order to avoid over-filling their bins. But since the May election, the environment secretary, Caroline Spelman, and communities secretary, Eric Pickles, have been pushing for a return to weekly collections. In August, local government minister Bob Neill even urged councils to hold referendums on the issue, claiming that fortnightly collections "cause problems with fly-tipping, odour and vermin".

The environment department, Defra, is conducting a review of waste policy that includes looking at measures to increase frequency. However, the government's analysis – undertaken by its waste quango, Wrap – raises questions about the effectiveness of the new policy.

The analysis says that if weekly collections were reintroduced, the amount of paper, plastic and cans put out for recycling could drop by 30-46kg per household per annum. The amount of garden and kitchen waste put out for recycling could drop by up to 100kg for each household. If these figures are extrapolated across 48% of English households, this would involve up to 1.5m tonnes of recyclables being dumped in landfill – equivalent to almost 5% of England's household waste.

Wrap's analysis assumes that the pro-recycling behaviour change caused by the introduction of fortnightly collections is gradually reversed. If that change happened, the amount of waste England households recycle would drop from 37.6% to 31.7%. This would damage the UK's ability to meet an EU target to recycle 50% of its household waste by 2020.

Julian Kirby, Friends of the Earth's waste campaigner, said: "Far from combining deficit cuts with being the greenest government ever, the coalition looks set to cut recycling while heaping extra costs on cash-strapped councils. High [levels of] recycling saves cash and resources while creating many, many more jobs than landfill or incineration."

No council bodies would comment openly on the figures. But one told ENDS on condition of anonymity: "There's a general feeling among councils that [going weekly] is a stupid idea, and these figures just show why. Fortnightly collections have been accepted as good practice for two years and that's why more than half English councils have made the move."