Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Majority of Palestinians support Terror

A recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 26-30
August 2014 does not give us reason for optimism. A majority Palestinians
interviewed believe that armed confrontation is the most effective means to
establish a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel. A majority also
expressed support for terorist acts, including the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers and the launching of rockets into Israel

Other key findings:

Gaza War:

79%
believe that Hamas has won the Gaza War; 3% believe Israel came out the
winner; and 17% believe the two sides were losers.

79%
believe Israel was responsible for the eruption of the Gaza war; 5%
believe Hamas was responsible; and 12% believe the responsibility lies
with the two sides.

63%
believe that the ceasefire agreement satisfies Palestinian interests, but
34% disagree with that. Moreover, 59% are satisfied with the
accomplishment gained in the agreement compared to the human and material
losses sustained by the Gaza Strip; 39% are dissatisfied with the
accomplishment.

An
overwhelming majority of 86% support the launching of rockets from the
Gaza Strip at Israel if the siege and blockade are not ended.

60% say
that Hamas does not launch rockets from populated areas, but 30% say it
does. 49% think it is justified for Hamas to launch rockets from populated
areas and 46% disagree with that. Percentage of those who believe that
launching rockets from populated areas is unjustified increases to 59%
among Gazans while standing at 38% among West Bankers.

Only
30% believe that Hamas should warn Israeli civilians in the specific
targeted areas before launching its rockets; 68% believe it should not do
so.

57%
oppose disarming armed groups in the Gaza Strip while 25% support such a
measure after the ending of the siege and the conduct of elections; 13%
support this measure but only after reaching a peace agreement with
Israel. In our June 2014 poll, only 33% said it opposed disarming and
dissolving armed groups in the Gaza Strip.

Despite
the current opposition to disarming Gaza groups, a majority of 54% support
and 40% oppose Abbas’ position that argues that the reconciliation
government must be committed to existing agreements reached between the
PLO and Israel and rejects Hamas position that opposes Abbas’
argument. In our previous poll in June, support for Abbas’ position
stood at 59%.

Yet,
only 43%, compared to 53% last June, agrees with the statement that the
inclusion of Hamas into the PLO means an implicit acceptance by Hamas of
the PLO peace program and the existing agreements with Israel.

About
two thirds (64%) believe that Iran, Turkey and Qatar combined have given
the Gaza Strip the ability to remain steadfast against Israeli attacks and
to be able to continue to launch rockets during the war; only 9% believe
Egypt too has contributed to that. Iran comes on top with 28%, followed by
Turkey (21%) and Qatar (15%); 25% select other countries or actors.

Moreover,
only 25% describe Egypt’s role in the ceasefire negotiations as positive
while a majority of 52% describe it as negative and 22% as neutral.

94% are
satisfied with Hamas’ military performance in confronting Israeli forces;
78% are satisfied with its defense of civilians in Gaza; and 89% are
satisfied with its media and communication performance.

In an
evaluation of the performance of the various Palestinian actors during the
war, Prime Minister Rami al Hamdallah comes at the bottom, with 35% giving
him a positive rating. The PA comes next with 36%, Abbas with 39%, the reconciliation
government with 43%, and the PLO with 44%. On top comes Khalid Mish’al
with 78% approval and Hamas with 88% approval. The approval rating for
Abbas rises to 49% in the Gaza Strip and drops to 33% in the West Bank. By
contrast, Khalid Mish’al’s approval rating drops in the Gaza Strip to 70%
and rises to 83% in the West Bank.

Peace Process:

Only
47% believe the chances for the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli
negotiations are medium or high; 51% believe the chances are low or
non-existent.

The
public is divided over the two-state solution: 49% support it and 50%
oppose it. In our last poll two months ago, 54% supported this solution
and 46% opposed it.

A
majority of 53% believe that armed confrontation is the most effective
means to establish a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel. Only
22% believe negotiation is the best means to establish a Palestinian state
and 20% believe that popular non-violent resistance is the most effective
route to statehood.

62% say
that the two-state solution is no longer practical due to Israeli
settlement expansion and 35% think it is still practical. Yet, only 24%
support the alternative one-state solution; 75% reject the one-state
solution. These findings indicate a drop in the support for the one-state
solution which two months ago stood at 31%.

81% are
worried that they could be hurt by Israelis in their daily life or that
their homes would be demolished and land confiscated. Only 19% are not
worried.

An
overwhelming majority of 81% believe that Israel’s long term aspiration is
to annex the land occupied in 1967 and expel its population or deny them
their political rights. By contrast, 63% believe that the long term
aspiration of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO is to recover part or
all of the land occupied in 1967.

57% of
the public say that they supported the June 2014 kidnapping of the three
Israelis in the West Bank when that incident took place. Support for the
kidnapping reached 67% in the Gaza Strip and only 45% in the West Bank.

Similarly,
a majority of 54% supported the killing of the three kidnapped Israelis and
42% opposed it. Support for the killing reached 69% in the Gaza Strip and
only 42% in the West Bank. 52% of the West Bankers opposed the killing of
the three kidnapped Israelis.

The
public is divided over the identity of those who carried out the kidnapping
and the killing of the three Israelis: 32% accuse Israel, 30% accuse
Hamas, 21% believe a Palestinian acted on his own, and 2% accuse Fatah.

In
the absence of viable negotiations, 85% support joining more international
organizations; 84% support joining the International Criminal Court; 62%
favor resort to popular non-violent resistance; 60% support a return to an
armed intifada; 42% support a dissolution of the PA; and 24% support
abandoning the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution. It is
worth mentioning that two months ago only 41% indicated support for a
return to an armed intifada.

61%
believe that massive popular demonstrations could contribute to ending the
Israeli occupation. But a larger majority of 72% favors the transfer of Hamas’
armed approach to the West Bank. Support for emulating Hamas in the West
Bank stands at 70% among West Bankers and 74% among Gazans.