Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database on 9/2/2010 and represent home sales between 1/1/2005 and 8/30/2010. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

I have good news and bad news to report about the Pelican Point real estate market. First the bad news… there are more homes on the market than the demand for them. The chart below shows that, overall, there is nearly a 12 month supply of existing homes based upon current absorption rates. For homes priced over $350K there is nearly a 2 year supply.

The next chart gives some cause for optimism. The rate of absorption for existing homes in 2010 shows some improvement over 2009. The absorption rate for new homes, however, is well below the peak of about 5 homes per month being sold in 2005 to about 1 every other month in 2010.

Another bit of good news is that existing homes appear to be holding values fairly well despite the imbalance in supply vs. demand. In 2010, home pricing (in terms of selling price per square foot of living area) has rebounded and, at $122.03/sq.ft., is well above what it was in the previous two years but has not yet recovered to the 2006 level.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

There was a sharp drop in the number of closings (unit sales) in Ascension parish during July as the following chart illustrates. During June there were a total of 142 detached single family homes transferred while in July only 63 DSF homes transferred. This is a drop of more than 55%! Clearly a significant number of closings during the first half of 2010 were attributable to the Home Buyer Tax Credit.

The next chart looks at new contracts negotiated for DSF homes during 2010. We can see that there was significant growth in the number of new contracts negotiated leading up to the April 30 deadline. Following that there was a significant drop in new contracts. While, as previously stated, there was a drop in the number of closings during July there was also a modest increase in the number of new contracts negotiated… from 85 in June to 96 in July, about a 13% increase. Improving but still a far cry from the 173 contracts negotiated in April.

The stacked bars represent the number of contracts for each status code recorded as of 8/10 when the data were extracted. Contracts with a status of Withdrawn or Active represent contracts which have fallen through since originally written. Thankfully, that number is rather small. Pending and contingent contracts have not yet closed and, hopefully, represent future sales.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted. The data collected were for detached single family homes in Ascension parish which went under contract between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2010.

In order to qualify for the $8,000 or $6,500 homebuyer tax credit, a homebuyer had to have an accepted contract in place on or before April 30, 2010. I wanted to quantify the impact of the expiration of that tax credit upon the real estate market in Ascension Parish. The expiration of the tax credit has, indeed, had a cooling effect on the market. Overall, there has been a drop of 36% in the average weekly number of accepted contracts since the expiration of the tax credit. The following chart illustrates that effect.

I separately calculated the effect for new construction and for re-sale homes. It appears that new construction benefited most from the tax credit. Since its expiration, the average number of new contracts per week dropped from 14.7/wk to 7.0 per week, a drop of 52%. For homes in the re-sale market segment, that drop was from 16.4/week to 13.0/wk or 21%.

The next chart plots the same data but shows the mix of new construction contracts vs. re-sale contracts as a percent of the total for a given week.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database and represent sales of detached single family homes from January 2005 through April 2010. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

Unit sales in the parish were down a bit in April from unit sales in March. Both new construction and re-sale market segments were down. On the other hand, unit sales in April 2010 was higher in both segments than in April of 2009.

New construction unit sales in the period from January through April 2010 was higher than the same periods during 2008 and 2009. The re-sale segment for the January through April 2010 was higher than in 2009 but lower than in the years 2005 through 2008.

Overall $ sales volume was up. While volumes in 2006 and 2007 were higher, 2010 volumes were higher than in 2005, 2008 and 2009.

The average sales price of new construction continued to fall in the parish but the average sales price of previously owned homes during the first four months of the year was substantially higher than in any of the previous five years.

The average selling price per square foot of living area for new homes declined slightly as the trend toward smaller homes with fewer amenities continued. The price per square foot of living area for homes in the re-sale market segment increased slightly.

The last chart shows the history of $/sq.ft. between January 2005 and April 2010. One can see that in April 2010 there was virtually no difference between the new construction and re-sale segments. The last time that occured was in November of 2005 after which the selling price per square foot of living area for new construction rose substantially. It remains to be seen whether this event in April is significant.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report - First Quarter 2010

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

The average selling price in Pelican Point in the re-sale market segment saw a substantial increase during the first quarter of 2010. Only a single newly built home sold during the first quarter so no conclusions can be drawn vis a vis any trend in the new construction market segment.

The following chart shows the distribution of the selling price per square foot of living area since January of 2004. There has, perhaps, been a minor decline after it peaked in the years immediately following hurricane Katrina but has more or less been holding steady.

New construction sales have fallen way off. As indicated earlier, a single newly constructed home has sold so far in 2010. The resale market segment, however, has shown tremendous growth as the next chart indicates.

The next chart illustrates that, for the first quarter of 2010, the absorption rate for previously owned homes in Pelican Point has rebounded to a level not seen since hurricane Katrina.

That’s the good news… The bad news is that there are still more homes for sale than can be absorbed even at the higher absorption rates. More than a third of existing inventory is in the over $400K price range. At an absorption rate of only 0.7 homes per month, there is a sixteen and a half month supply placing this price range clearly in the Buyer’s Market category.

The next chart shows the average selling price per square foot of living area for previously owned homes separated by the street. As 2010 wears on, these numbers will become more meaningful. A total of eleven homes sold during the first quarter which is insufficient to draw any street level conclusions for 2010 at this time.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report 2010Q1

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted and represent detached single family home sales.

Unit of detached single family homes in Ascension parish were up about 24% in March of 2010 when compared to sales in March of 2009. Both the new construction and the re-sale market segments showed growth.

First quarter sales, likewise, show growth in 2010 when compared with 2009. In the re-sale market segment first quarter unit sales in 2010 are similar to those of 2007 and 2008.

The average selling price per square foot of living area is down marginally in both market segments for 2010 as the next chart demonstrates.

The following chart indicates that the decline may have bottomed out. In fact, there are some indications of improvement but it is too early to say for sure. We’ll continue to monitor this closely.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

March 4, 2010

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

Overall unit sales for the first two months of 2010 are up when compared with the first two months of 2009. New construction is down by a single unit while resale homes are up by four units as the following chart illustrates.

The price per square foot of living area has declined once again for new construction indicating that the shift toward more affordable homes with fewer amenities continues. The average selling price/sq.ft. of previously owned homes has declined by nearly 2% as well.

The next chart shows the top selling subdivisions for new construction in Ascension parish. It clearly demonstrates that new home buyers are opting for smaller homes with fewer amenities which result in a lower price/sq.ft. Of particular interest in this chart are the pending sales numbers. With 25 and 17 pending sales respectively, Jamestowne Court and Keystone of Galvez subdivisions are clearly outpacing other subdivisions.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

January 21, 2010

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report

This report summarizes and compares the Pelican Point housing market in 2009 and compares it with previous years. In terms of unit sales, approximately the same number of homes sold in 2009 as did in 2008. While down slightly from 2008, the re-sale market segment remains ahead of pre-Katrina levels. New construction, on the other hand, is way down from years preceding 2008.

Looking at absorption rates, it is definitely a buyer’s market in the subdivision. There are significantly more homes for sale than demand supports. Home buyers are likely to find bargains while home sellers should set themselves apart from the competition.

Since Pelican Point is comprised of a number of different filings, each with it own unique characteristics, when examining pricing it is useful to look at individual street addresses. The following chart examines pricing in the resale market segment in terms of the price per square foot of living area. We can see that there has been a softening of prices in many areas. This is, in my opinion, due to the buyer’s market condition that exists. In general, prices in Ascension parish as a whole have held for the resale market.

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

As 2009 comes to a close the real estate market in Ascension Parish is continuing to resist the gloom haunting other markets in the country and is, in fact, showing signs of growth. The following chart shows monthly unit sales for the past several years. For September 2009, sales of previously owned homes exceeded sales in that market segment in both July and August of this year and approached sales in June 2009 which was the highest so far this year. While new construction unit sales didn’t perform as well as the previously owned market segment for September 2009, it significantly outperformed new construction sales in September 2008. This is not surprising since both the new and re-sale market segments were hard hit by the devastation caused by hurricane Gustav last year. That said, new construction unit sales last month outperformed all other months in 2008 except for the month of July.

Using the average absorption rates observed so far this year, unit sales of the new construction market segment is projected to exceed 2008 levels. Unit sales for the re-sale market segment is projected to be only slightly less than that of 2008. Clearly, while less robust than the boom post-Katrina times, the real estate market in Ascension parish is showing remarkable signs of health despite the current difficulties we face in acquiring credit.

The next two charts show historical trends of average selling price and average selling price per square foot for both market segments.

We can see that in the resale market segment, neither the average price nor the average price per sq.ft. have changed substantially from 2008 levels. This indicates that the equity in our residential real estate investment has weathered the economic downturn quite well. In the new construction segment, however, we see a downward shift toward more affordable housing… a trend previously reported on toward smaller homes with fewer upgrades and amenities.

The next two charts show the absorption rates and inventory levels for the two market segments. In the new construction segment, there is only a 3.3 month supply of new homes overall. This is a Seller’s Market. A Buyer’s Market condition exists only for homes priced over $400K. The highest velocity of home sales exists in the $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 65% of all new homes sold this year.

The previously owned market segment shows the highest velocity of sales in the same $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 51% of home sales. In fact, home sales under $250K accounted for 73% of all homes sold. Overall, it is a neutral market with 6.4 months supply but there is a great variation in this figure as we look at various price ranges. Previously owned homes over $400K have sold at a rate of 1.6 homes per month. With 60 homes on the market, at this rate it will take more than three years so sell off this inventory. At the other end of the spectrum, homes priced under $250K are enjoying robust sales and it is a Seller’s Market in these price ranges.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.