Who was adversely affected by today’s Texas Senate lottery?

Today the Texas state senators drew lots for two and four-year terms, with one-half (15) being forced to run for re-election in 2014 and the other half (16) not having to compete again until 2016. This draw takes place in the legislative session held after the first post-redistricting election, where all 31 Senate seats are renewed simultaneously.

Today’s lottery could nonetheless end up being irrelevant, if due to legal challenges the boundaries of the Senate districts are redrawn prior to the 2014 elections, in which case all 31 Senate seats would once again be on the ballot that year. However, among the three sets of legislative districts (U.S. House, Texas Senate, Texas House), the Senate districts are least likely to suffer any modification due to the high degree of consensus in Austin, at least prior to today, regarding the current boundaries.

Here I highlight three senators and one political party adversely affected by today’s lottery.

Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth). Davis must seek re-election in 2014, which means she would need to abandon her Senate seat in order to run for governor next year. Had she drawn a four-year term this morning, she could have run for governor while retaining her place in the Senate. A Davis bid for governor in 2014 is therefore now unlikely, especially when one takes into account the reality that her chances of victory against either Attorney General Greg Abbott or even Gov. Rick Perry would be essentially nil.

In addition, the lower turnout associated with non-presidential election years makes Davis more vulnerable to a strong Republican state Senate challenger in 2014 than would have been the case in 2016, when her re-election would have been concurrent with the presidential contest. Recall that this past November Davis’ margin of victory over Republican Mark Shelton was a mere 2.4 percent.

The Texas Democratic Party. Democrats quite likely lost their strongest candidate for the 2014 governor’s race today. A gubernatorial campaign by Davis, especially against Perry, would have drawn substantial Democratic money and attention to the state, adversely affected Republican Party candidates in competitive down-ballot races, and aided longer-term Democratic efforts to attract, organize and mobilize Democratic-leaning voters. With Davis unable to run without giving up her Senate seat, and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro not interested in competing next year, the Texas Democratic Party now has limited options for the top of the statewide ticket.

Davis’ need to seek re-election in 2018 also complicates Democratic plans for a 2018 Castro-Davis “dream” ticket for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor, since once again Davis would have to forego re-election to run. Lastly, Davis’ SD-10 is the state’s only competitive Senate district, and its placement in the more difficult (for a Democrat) non-presidential electoral cycle increases the likelihood of the Democratic Party delegation in the Texas Senate being reduced from 12 to 11 in 2014; although even with this unlucky draw, Davis is the odds-on favorite to win SD-10 in 2014. But, a Davis loss in 2014 would undoubtedly dim what is arguably the Texas Democratic Party’s second brightest rising star (after Castro).

Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston). Like Davis, Patrick also must seek re-election in 2014, which makes a bid for statewide office such as comptroller or lieutenant governor in 2014 or 2018 much more risky, since it would require him to give up his very safe seat in the Texas Senate.

Sen. Donna Campbell (R-New Braunfels). A substantial number of Republican donors and elites wanted to replace former Sen. Jeff Wentworth in SD-25, but not with Campbell. With her draw today, Campbell will not have the luxury of three years to expand her support base and consolidate her position in SD-25, but instead only 13 months to prepare her defense against one or more viable challengers in the March 2014 Republican primary.

Mark P. Jones is the Baker Institute’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.

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