The trajectory of Gov. Charlie Crist’s political career may be in question, but he continues to cast a sizable shadow over Florida’s next Senate race.

With the likely entry of former Crist aide and outgoing Sen. George LeMieux into the 2012 contest against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, the Florida governor’s record and political legacy as a convert from conservative Republican to independent will almost certainly be relitigated.

The GOP primary will test Crist’s remaining level of toxicity among conservatives who resent his party-switch during his unsuccessful Senate bid and may reveal whether Republican voters believe LeMieux took enough steps to distance himself from his old boss after his appointment.

The 41-year-old LeMieux, who served as Crist’s top campaign aide and chief of staff, is well aware that his ties to the governor will be an issue he’ll have to address if he decides to seek the party nomination.
For Republicans who have concerns about his conservative core, LeMieux points to the painful but swift decision he made to abandon Crist once he left the GOP to run as an independent last April — as well as his efforts on Capitol Hill to rein in the growing budget deficit.

“They know how difficult it was for me personally to endorse Marco Rubio the day after Charlie Crist left the party. So I think that I’ve earned the confidence of conservatives in Florida because of the difficult decision I’ve had to make,” LeMieux told POLITICO in a recent interview. “There’s a lot of easy talk in politics. I had to make a difficult decision and stand by it, and I get a lot of appreciation by conservatives for doing it. It was not an easy or happy decision for me, but it was the right thing to do.”

Florida political operatives credit LeMieux for carving out his own conservative credentials during his brief Senate stint, but his vulnerabilities are most likely to arise from a time before his appointment to the upper chamber, when he was Crist’s chief aide and confidant.

“Certainly, the former affiliation with Gov. Crist will be something he will have to handle,” said former state GOP Chairman Al Cardenas.

“His opponents undoubtedly will try to tie him as close as possible to Crist. For so many likely Republicans, Crist is the epitome of the self-centered politics that largely inspired the revolution of 2010, and his name at least in Florida will forever be associated with politicians without principle,” added Brett Doster, a Florida GOP consultant unaffiliated with any of the potential candidates. “I doubt any of the candidates will get through one forum without being asked to either affirm or reject all things associated with Crist.”

One Republican supportive of a rival candidate is already quietly distributing a page of opposition research on LeMieux that unearths a 2009 quote labeling himself “a Charlie Crist Republican.”

“The Charlie Crist way of staying with your principles but still trying to solve problems for the people is the way that we need to address things in Washington,” LeMieux said in August 2009 before Crist tapped him for the job, according to The Associated Press. Another newspaper clip showers praise on LeMieux as Crist’s “maestro.”

LeMieux was also the aide who zealously shielded Crist in 2006, keeping him away from an unpopular President George W. Bush at an election eve campaign rally. When asked why Crist was not attending Bush’s visit to Florida, Karl Rove responded: “Just ask George LeMieux.”

The outgoing senator dismisses the criticism about his Crist ties as unfair, noting that “every Republican in Florida supported Charlie Crist” when he was under the Republican tent.

“The difference was when the chips were down — even though I have a personal relationship — I did what I thought what was right for my state and my country,” he said.

LeMieux isn’t the only one who could have some explaining to do. Four-term GOP Rep. Connie Mack, another potential 2012 candidate, backed out of a 2010 Senate race because of his personal loyalty to Crist, telling the governor, “I will be your strongest supporter and champion — regardless of whether you seek reelection or election to the Senate.”

Doster agreed that LeMieux’s rivals could easily overplay their hand. “All of the current likely contenders for the U.S. Senate nomination are onetime ardent supporters of Crist, and too much criticism of George’s affiliation with Crist may create blowback,” he said.

In the end, LeMieux’s record could speak for itself. In his 16 months in the Senate, the senator positioned himself as a fiscal hawk — railing against the budget deficit and abandoning earmarks — while brokering a bipartisan deal to boost small-business lending. Some of the most conservative senators appear to enjoy friendly relations with him, which could help him in a primary race.

Texas Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he would not get involved in the Florida primary, but South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint told POLITICO that he was “very interested” in getting involved in the race — and would seek advice from Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush about whom to endorse.

“I like George a lot,” said DeMint, who was the first GOP senator to back Rubio when the party establishment backed Crist in the primary.

Asked whether LeMieux’s relationship with Crist would be a factor, DeMint said, “It’s not a problem for me — it could be a problem in Florida with the Republicans. He’s got time to develop a lot of relationships. He’s been a great colleague, really enjoyed getting to know him, working with him. If he decides to run, I’m sure he’ll be a factor in the primary.”

Rubio suggested in a brief interview that he would stay out of the primary, but the former state House speaker is on the record in 2009 taking shots at LeMieux when Crist appointed him to the seat.

Mike Haridopolos, the ambitious 40-year-old state Senate president, could be one who helps remind voters of LeMieux’s tight ties to Crist. He’s already emerged as one of LeMieux’s top rivals for the nomination, all but formally declaring his candidacy.

While he swatted away questions about LeMieux’s tenure, his unwillingness even to say whether LeMieux had been a “good senator” was itself revealing.

“It’s not for me to decide,” he said. Pressed on whether LeMieux is a conservative, he replied, “Not for me to judge.”

Haridopolos added that his own overarching message will be that he “was a conservative when it wasn’t cool.”

LeMieux downplayed the notion that his association with Crist would dominate the primary because, he said, voters would be more interested in hearing about the candidates’ ideas. While he said he’s getting encouragement from his GOP Senate colleagues and leadership to move forward, he notes that running would take a toll on his wife and four young children.

“This race is not going to be about former politicians, and it’s really not going to be about the politicians that may decide to run for this,” he said. “I think what will dominate whomever decides to run is who has a proven record of getting things accomplished, who has a record of being a problem solver and who has got a plan to tackle this challenging debt and deficit situation.”

Through his private deliberations, LeMieux has sought out advice from key players throughout the state — but not Crist.

“I have not talked to him about this,” he said. “I had a nice call with him since the election, but it wasn’t about politics.”