The significant figure is the one for the Peasants Party, as they will now probably form a coalition with Civic Platform.

These are opinion poll results – official results out Monday or Tuesday. All we know for certain is that the German minority will have two seats in the Polish parliament, because they always do.

Any party under 5 percent will not be drawing a salary from tax payers and will not get a nice little seat in the Polish parliament.

But turnout has been good, although this can have some bad consequences.

the beatroot has been told (see comments on previous post) that one polling station in north Warsaw - election office 784 ul Staffa Zoliborz - ran out of ballot papers in the afternoon, delaying voting for some while.

That story has been confirmed by the electoral commission, which says there were also shortages of ballot papers in the Ursynow district of Warsaw.

That was one of the farcical ‘incidents’ which prolonged the election day, first by 15 minutes, then 20, then 25, then 30 minutes and then finally by three hour.

Drowning sorrows, drowning ducks

There was certainly a movement to Civic Platform in the last few days – especially after the election debates, which, to my amazement, seem to have made a real difference to the result.

The Law and Justice election ‘celebration’ party is being held in Warsaw's Hyatt hotel, about 2 minutes walk from where I live. The lady in the newsagents across the road said journalists covering the PiS piss up were saying that the party henchmen and lawmakers have been waltzing around the hotel with their noses in the air, being obstructive to journos, and convinced they are going to win.

I suppose the PiS piss up has turned into a bit of a wake.

Live blog as it happened - Results at 8.30 pm, Polish time...

20.23: Actually, this is turning into a farce. They have now revized the time again - the fifth time today - and we will know exit poll results at 9 O'Clock, or even later. And to think that the government was outraged that the OSCE wanted to come and observe these elections!

20.48: Turnout 55 percent.

21.00: I don't believe it.Now the electoral commission has announced that there is something wrong in Gdansk, and they do not know when results can be announced.

But TVN24, in anticipation that the results were just about to be allowed to be released, showed a bar chart that had one of the parties significantly in the lead. Which one could that be, we wonder? Are we coming to the end of a mini-era?

And someone in Lepper's Self defense party earlier made a 'civil arrest' of a journalist, accusing him of breaking the 'election silence' law. The hapless journo has since been 'released'.

21.14: The electoral commission appear to be overwhelmed with what is a high turnout for Poland.

21.24: We are now told that 'election silence' will finally end at 22.55! What a mess. But turnout is now officially 55 percent.

Age seems to be a factor in who came out to vote. The over 60 age group voted least - 47 percent. And in big cities 74 percent voted - suggesting that in small towns and rural areas the tirnout was low. That is bad, VERY bad, for Law and Justice.

21.56: Apparently, many people in rural areas have...moved to Ireland! This has depleted the social base for parties dependant on these folk's vote. You can guess which parties...

22.00: Um....anyone know any jokes....or something. Maybe: "What do the Kaczynskis do on a tennis court? They play volleyball," ha, ha.

22.28: EVERYONE HAS LEFT THE AFTER ELECTION PARTY AT THE HYATT HOTEL AND GONE HOME !!! The hotel is just around the corner from where I live. Guess which party was having the 'celebration' party there? Law and Justice. I think someone has told them something.

89 comments:

Harry
said...

I'm officially fucked off with this election. Yesterday I went to the bookies to put a bet on (well, misery insurance actually: 500zl on PiS to win) and the bastards told me that they'd already stopped taking bets because of the election black-out!

You put money on S Africa? That would be 'misery insurance, too - England were so unlucky and I have discovered I really like watching brutal rugby - but England had longer odds - a bit like PiS's odds in the final days.

Jesus....TVN na zywo have just put on their regular 'Dance with Stars' programme. So that's what the other 45% are doing. At least Bosak is not on it anymore. And hopefully he wouldn't be in the next parliament either.

I think it would be phenomenologically fascinating, actually. But it just means that I am going to be working till about 1 in the morning.

But what I saw - and they thought that the silence would end in about 30 seconds before a last minute stop to proceedings - was a bar chart with a clear lead for someone. I I think we are in for a change.

Just saw part of PKW press conference where the boob facing the press got a question as to whether OSCE observers were at the places that ran out of cards. He said "I don't know" then looked down at his Very Important Paper and didn't look up until there was another question ....

good question. BR, any idea whether Zoliborz is one of the areas and it's voting tendency? Did they mention any of the polling stations that time has been extended for? Or is it just being extended cause folks in the countryside have been taking a heap of tea breaks throughout the day?

On the webpage of "Die Zeit" an article seems to imply that the hold up is because of an extension of opening times in those places where the lack of ballots occurred. Which would mean that no foul play is going on.

tv24pl just mentioned hearing 'voices' connected with PiS suggesting they just might try to get the elections .... nullified. This in connection with various problems with the ever-extending cisza, insufficient voter cards etc

Now, you can go and see the link ! Well, I suppose it's now irrelevant ;-))Anyway, these results are brilliant ! Wonder if abroad results might change the gap between PiS and PO. I'm in Brussels and this morning, accompanying my polish girlfriend to the polish consulate, I was amazed by the queue : nearly 150m/200m !No, I won't play you a tune ;-) You should ask my parent to play it (what an idea calling me Brian...;)

Well, congratulations to Poland, I was cheering for you people. And I only hear what comes though the media here in Hungary - it must have been loads worse experiencing it. I'm hoping this means a turn-around for all of Central Europe, we could definately use the good news. Cheers again!

Well, they don't need to take MPs from PiS; they can get them from PSL in a coalition. Also, these are exit poll figures so the final numbers from the official result might push them into an outright majority (they already have a clear majority in the Senate).

Besides, I don't see LiD automatically voting on the same side as PiS (who have alienated absolutely everyone) so a lot of the time they wouldn't necessarily need a formal coalition arrangement to carry the vote - they're in a much stronger position than PiS were before the election.

In a strange kind of way, I'm going to miss the antics of Lepper and Giertych. Maybe they could exhibit them both at Warsaw Zoo in the monkey cage (and as Harry says, Lepper is probably going to end up behind bars anyway!)

First of all, the may not have 227 seats. This is an exit poll. When the votes are counted, it may turn to be several more or less. (The conventional wisdom is that the exit poll slightly overestimates the victory). The official results are to be announced on Tuesday -- we'll really know then.

So, they will probably form the coalition with PSL, because PSL is ideologically closest to them.

Anyway, I am glad that we are finally done with the IV Rzeczypospolita.

PO want to get the Polish troops out of Iraq but were still pro-war when it mattered - big business interests and all that.

PO say they will get a better deal for Poland in talks with the U.S. regarding the proposed missile system. 81% of Poles are against the system according to opinion polls. Will they hold a referendum - I doubt it.

PO wants more security guarantees for Poland such as the U.S. Patriot short-range anti-missile and anti-aircraft system. So the will Defence spending continue to increase and public health care financing comparatively decrease?

PO will most likely allow the Via Baltica/Augustow motorway to bulldoze it's way through Rospuda - big business interests, and all that.

PO will create a cut-throat meritocracy with fuck-all solidarity - and I'm not talking about the PiS version of solidarity.

I'm Irish and live in Poland. I don't want Poland to become another Ireland....we;re a greedy bunch of fucks who'd sell our mothers if the price was right. Then we'd go to Mallorca or Budapest to have a look at our 3rd home, just to make sure it's being managed alright.

Am I a bitter bastard? sometimes.....but most of the time I'm a fairly fun-loving bloke. I just don't like my enemy's enemy is my friend style of analysis.

Thanks for the blogging BR, great work. Don't get too drunk, ya might be kidnapped by some very PiSsed off people (PiS,SO,LPR).

PiS now only have the majority of the vote in the 3 eastern voivode and Swietokrzyskie: http://www.tvn24.pl/0,1525506,0,1,wiadomosc.html Giertych's Rump Party didn't seem to get the majority anywhere so I'm struggling to understand just where 'Holy Poland' is located. Maybe it's now in Belarus? (well they have the anti-semitism at least)

Kaczor did not look that shocked. Maybe he is playing the long game. The next presidential election is in three years time. By that time Tusk etc will have screwed a few things up. So it will be easier for Lech Kaczynski to win a president election that way, than if Law and Justice had staggered on for another few years and made themselves unelectable.

But I am going to cheer a change of atmostphere in this country - hopefully. Let's hope for a little less burak type behaviour from our rulers.

"We couldn't overcome the powerful front from "Facts and Myths", a magazine that once employed Grezegorz Piotrowski, (the/a) murderer of father Popiełuszko, through Tribune, Gazeta Wyborcza, two private television stations and up to Donald Tusk"

We couldn't overcome the powerful front that ranged/spread from "fakty i mity", a magaine that once employed Grzegorz Piotrowski, one of the murderers of father Popiełuszko to "Nie", "Gazeta Wyborcza", various tv stations, PO, LiD and on and on"

"I don't want Poland to become another Ireland....we;re a greedy bunch of fucks who'd sell our mothers if the price was right."

How much experience do you have with the third world or countries closer to their communist past? Real hardships and struggles for survival make people do far worse things than prosperity does.

Go ahead and tsk tsk your crass, materialistic countrymen (I might well join you) but recognize that the Irish aren't selling their children as sex slaves or reporting each other to the secret police for gaudy trinkets. It's places untouched by that awful commercialism where you find that behavior.

I need to say one thing though - People in Ireland - those that emmigrated where the ones standing in lines to cast the vote for almost 3-4 hours. Must say that majority on Civic Platform - so not true what you say.

No Geez, I was joking. I don't suppose that there will be abortions in Milk bars either. But I am sure Giertych thinks they will be now.

As far as Ireland goes - is this some lame left wing point the guy is trying to make? This is what infuriates me about me old mates on the Left these days - they are against progress. They would much rather people sat around in mud huts in noble poverty, with a very small carbon foot print, of course.

I realize you were cracking silly BR. But my point still holds that Gazprom doesn't act that much differently than American or British oil companies, no? And might the PO be more accomodating in dealings with the the Russians in some ways and if so which ways? If so is that necessarily so bad for the folk of Poland? Maybe your joking wasn't completely off the mark. I dunno.

And I am for creating weather controling technologies...but that's another matter.

As far as Russia is concerned, Tusk will be trying to calm things down with the Russians and the Germans. But Gazprom are not like BP. The Kremlin controls gazprom and it is used as a means of getting Russia's way internationally. They use it like they used to use tanks and stuff.

Luddite? I don't advocate destroying machinery except weaponry (and I've never done it myself but yay to Damien!) nor do I call for stopping promising technological research. I do have a problem employing technology that does the opposite of what it claims to do, ie. the use of corn, sugarcane, and palm nuts for biofuel. I am a pessimist about pie-in-the-sky quick fixes and having too much faith in capitalist corporate "progressives" like the Tuskites.

Opamp responded: 'So you want Poland to become one big open-air museum, where you can come to see Rozpuda and get some cheap beer and hookers.Sorry dude, but that does not chime well with me.'

No dude, I'm sorry, I don't get your logic. For one, I'm not into cheap beer or hookers. Actually I'm not into expensive beer or hookers either. Let me clarify, I don't drink alcohol and don't fuck hookers.

The issue I was trying to bring up is irresponsible motorway building - in Ireland the government have decided to build a motorway through the Tara valley, a World Heritage site. That's my only point.

Of course I'd rather if potatoes, tomatoes and the like were not been transported thousands of miles in trucks all over Europe into countries which can already grow tomatoes and potatoes and the like, but hey, I guess I'm just plain old-fashioned huh?

Let them go a round the main part of Rospuda, not right through the middle of the fucking thing.

'How much experience do you have with the third world or countries closer to their communist past?Real hardships and struggles for survival make people do far worse things than prosperity does.'

Jaysus, please don;t say I'm blowing my trumpet when I tell you:I worked with homeless people in Dublin for 4 years who have lived and experience pretty shite conditions. I've volunteered in Haiti and Palestine, lived with many people from the Global South for years (I really fucking hate the term 3rd world). I have very good friends and relations who work with refugees, etc. in the Global South. I've lived here for over 2 years so this is my only experience of living long-term in a former commie stronghold.

I'm 27 years young and no I've experienced very little. The above experiences I've related have shaped my opinions.

Of course, Ireland is not as bad as many countries throughout the world as regards many human rights issues.

'recognize that the Irish aren't selling their children as sex slaves or reporting each other to the secret police for gaudy trinkets'

Of course, I agree with you here.

Doesn't change my point that Poland can learn from many mistakes Irish governments made in terms of squandering E.U. funds.

Canon team said:'I need to say one thing though - People in Ireland - those that emmigrated where the ones standing in lines to cast the vote for almost 3-4 hours. Must say that majority on Civic Platform - so not true what you say.'

what's not true?

22,000 registered. Circa 250,000 live there - I guestimate 4/5's are eligible to vote. Where was the other 80% or so? More ballot boxes and polling stations would have undoubtedly helped, but the vast majority of Polish emigrants living in Ireland did not turn out to vote.

BR'As far as Ireland goes - is this some lame left wing point the guy is trying to make? This is what infuriates me about me old mates on the Left these days - they are against progress. They would much rather people sat around in mud huts in noble poverty, with a very small carbon foot print, of course.'

I'm a bit behind - am I the guy you are referring to?

Let me clarify: I am not against progress, just unsustainable progress that damages communities heritage and landscapes irrevocably.

Mud huts - in Poland you'll find very few Theodore Kaczynskiites doing this lifestyle? Globally, would you want the Masai to move into 11 story apartment blocs in Kenya's sprawling cities? And bar the negativism surrounding ngo coined terms like 'carbon footprints,' what's so wrong with trying to lead a life that exploits less, once it's not being hammered down the throats of others.

Regarding my comments on Ireland earlier, they worked a treat in terms of provoking a response;)

Sorry about the multiple comments here - I've been cyber-free all day....phew, what a healthy feeling.

I also hope Poland does not go the way of Ireland. But it's probably too late. The tsk-tsk conversations about how no one can afford to buy a home (subtext "but I own my place so I'm cashing in") that so bored me in 90s Dublin are now boring me in 00s Poland.

I was um...exagerating a little. But you know what I mean. It was one of the least developed countries in the EU when it joined. Dublin was a nice, but parochial place. And then 'wham'...one of the most vibrant capitals in the whole of Europe, and the country has changed for the better in geberal over the past twenty years.

Rospuda is not about some motorway. We have a situation where a strategic road, connecting Poland to Baltic countries cannot be built, because of some tree-huggers. The funniest part is that the case won support in Western countries. These countries have themselves undertaken really massive devast... um, civil engineering projects (Rhine, for example) and now, they are feeling very concerned about us blowing OUR unique ecosystems. Because they have blown up theirs and are happy with it, but God forbid us from blowing up our own stuff.

So they can continue living in their luxury and come to Poland to see our trees if they feel tired with comfort. And preach to the locals that the progress is bad for them, because they would otherwise destroy the trees.

Except we all know that this is not about trees. If these locals really got to developing they would blow us and our overpriced products out of the market. We cannot allow that -- save the trees!

What's the big deal about going around Rospuda? I don't think anybody is objecting to bettering the road system. Nor do I think the people who object to the roadway through Rospuda are supportive of other countries' rape of their respective and other countries' immediate environments. Why make it sound as if environmentalists just want to punish and hold back Polish development? Propaganda all is phoney as some bard once warbled. And when you speak of "our" ecosystem, Opamp, I assume you are a human being so the "us" and "them" dichotomy just doesn't cut it. And even in citing "our" ecosystem in reference to Poland, as far as I know nobody ever elected you to speak for all the Polish people, at least some of whom see no problem with a road going around Rospuda. Cheers.

As for Rospuda, I don't know of anyone who doesn't want any road at all built (there may be some crazees but they're irrelevant).

For me, the argument isn't between a) road or b) no road. It's between a) road that doesn't do maximum damage to a unique ecosystem and b) one that does.

The present government and maybe the future one absolutely want b) (even though it's longer and more expensive than the original plan that bypassed the most sensitive areas) for purposes that I'm not sure of.

Well, I grew up in a place where highways ended up being in awkward places and followed sometimes strange routes (but which 'just happened' to create the maximum benefit for local powers that be). So I assume something similar is going on here (quick call CBA!)

Exactly, it is 'a' base. There are many others too. Educational development is a base for economic development. Economic development is base for heart disease, obesity, avarice, the atomisation of the individual as well as the wide-ranging benefits it provides one to have.

The Song of the Bird, Anthony de Mello: The Northern rich industrialist is horrified to discover the lazy-assed Southern fisherman lying down, chilling out beside his boat, smoking a pipe.

"Why aren’t you fishing?" the fat capitalist asks (fat capitalist is my term...sorry Anthony)."Because I have caught enough fish for the day," the fisherman responds."Why don’t you catch some more?""What would I do with it?""You could earn more money, was the reply. You could put a motor on your boat and go into deeper waters and catch more fish. Then you would make enough to buy nylon nets, which would bring you more fish and more money. Soon you’d have enough money to own two boats…maybe even a fleet of boats. Then you’d be a rich man like me."

"What would I do then?" the fisherman inquires.

"Then you would enjoy life," says the smiling industrialist.

"What do you think I’m doing right now?" answers the fisherman.**********************************Re. the use of the word 'rape' connected to the environment. The word as you well know has many meanings, not just the more commonly one you have defined.

Earth has been often regarded as female (Gaia) and the destruction of earth as 'rape'.

The term originally comes from the latin 'rapere' meaning 'to seize, carry away forcefully, abduct' and was rarely applied to sexual acts of misconduct.

But terms such as destruction, or harmful stripping away are just as effective when speaking about the environment.

Michael, you hit the property speculators on the head with them remarks.

As regards PO's wet dream of making Poland as economically prosperous as Ireland, etc. I think it would be really interesting for folks here to pick up copy of Irish economist and broadcaster David McWilliams book 'The Pope's Children.' McW. is a die hard capitalist but he gives an excellent insight into the adverse affects of Ireland's economic growth and how it has affected our characters. I'll lend it to anyone who is interested.

I would also like to hear what Irish specialist Prof. Wawrzyniec Konarski ('Profile')has to say on PO's aspirations and how he thinks Poland can learn from Ireland's mistakes and while adopting it's success of low unemployment, etc.