What do we learn from climate predictions?

Climate models are extremely helpful to environmental policymakers and leaders because they provide the information and evidence to make well-informed decisions about future environmental actions [1,2].

By using several different well-considered scenarios of human response to climate change (from doing nothing to doing a huge amount) climate modellers can give policymakers an idea of the range of possible future changes in temperature [3,4] given certain policy actions [5,6].

For example, most of you will know by now that greenhouse gas emissions will increase future temperatures and affect future weather patterns [7]. Models can be used to predict how human activities, such as increased emissions, will affect the climate [8] and how quickly CO2 emissions need to decrease to limit warming to specific levels [8,9].

They can also highlight delayed effects [10] – i.e even if we were to stop releasing emissions today, the greenhouse gas we have already released will continue to cause warming for at least several decades [11].

Basically, all climate models have limitations but, properly used, they can make important contributions to tackling climate change!