Some peculiar combination of influences (the economico-psycho-socio-politico-historico-, ... kind) locked the NKPR on a particular path of thinking that is leading it to a logical dead end. I think the leadership senses and fears that, but it doesn't know what to do about it, other than be sociopaths and conduct underground tests, missile launches, ... These are a way to show themselves they aren't at a dead end. With so much self-image depending on a successful launch, its failure may have compressed their thinking almost to the implosive stage. I wouldn't be surprised if a major collapse occurs in the next year, but likely with violence.

What happens in North Korea depends on China. Its strange that no one notices the shift in China's policy toward North Korean refugees in the last week and Bo Xilai being detained. Here is an interesting article.

Does this have to do with the rocket launch. In part, its the reason, but the Chinese would not have done such a move if the rocket launch had occurred a month earlier. The reality it has a lot to do with China's internal politics. Who was at birthday bash of the North Korean People's Party? Zhou YongKang. His faction within the CPC is rapidly losing power, particularly after Bo Xilai's dismissal.

Is the new Chinese policy temporary, or permanent? Its too early to tell. But for the North Koreans in China, well they should thank Wang Lijun. Its a pretty harsh move for a failed rocket launch. I doubt it would have happened if Zhou's power was in rapid decline.

Yeah but so can car bombs, and they are a hell of a lot cheaper.
Not that missiles aren't scary and all, but we have rockets that can shoot down rockets. You get more bang for your offensive buck by using other things. It's simple economics.

Missiles and Rockets are so 1950's. Hell, if you can hack into the electronic guidance system of the rocket you can defend against them using only air. The North Koreans would do better to develop suitcase nukes if they wanted to really cause some devastation. Developing a small pox virus or some other biological weapon would even be more a better offensive strategy than rockets.

Absolutely Bud, in the grand scheme of things in our universe expansion and survival of the fittest are the natural laws. As are entropy and indigestion.

In the end game the game is one with no rules, or at least only one rule, and that rule is that might makes right. Power and cunning are the weapons, and you win by any means you can. But I don't think the North Koreans are winning, nor will they.

Are you shitting me. I'd bet anything that the N. Korean's rocket was fried by someone. Either the South Koreans, Japanese, U.S., Russians, Chinese, who knows. But I'd suspect that there little rocket was hacked and fried by someone.

If the Iranians can hack into the guidance of an American UAV, I'd bet a dollar to a dime that the North Koreans little rocket was hacked and fried by someone with better technology.

Dude, she was hot. I'd like to keep her. I read that the North Korean women are hotties, and they are exporting them to China to become the wives of Chinese men who can't find women. Maybe they will export enough babes to China so that they can't effectively repopulate. That would solve the North Korean problem.

Despite the failed launch North Korea’s provocative action threatens regional security, violates international law and contravenes its own recent commitments given to the United States.

Any missile activity by North Korea is of huge concern to the international community. America is right to remain vigilant in the face of North Korean violations, another clear example of why US defence policy is pivoting towards Asia. Washington remains fully committed to the security of its allies in the region.

200,000 tonnes of US aid to North Korea has now been jeopardised because of Pyongyang’s irrational and senseless decision to launch a ballistic missile that spuriously was claimed to have been done in setting into orbit a ‘weather satellite’ and by celebrating the 100th anniversary of the birth of the regime’s founder, Kim Il Sung. But this has been nothing more than Kim Jong Un attempting to assert his power and show of muscle by demonstrating to his people that he is now in charge and his country was apparently capable of handling high technological weaponry. It seems more than likely that the satellite was being used as a cover in order to test a long-range missile.

Will it also be 'against international law' for India to test fire its new 'China Killer' ballistic missile and if not, why not? Who sets the rules and with what legitimacy? Can't imagine the US letting 'international law' restrict its actions so why should North Korea? This is about 'power' not 'law'.

I agree with the points made by you.. however just so you know.. India has proved itself a well capable country in the field of ballistic missiles. Even if each and every county would have the permission for such missiles... We need to go to Moon for peace

Are you sure that the missile is not a Paki Killer. Why the hell would India want to name a missile the China Killer? I mean they have that whole disagreement over the Dali Llama, but that one guy who espouses peace with his very being, and is said to be the living embodiment of the Buddha, is hardly a good reason to create a missile. Now the Paki's who sent terrorist into a city on a terrorist raid, and who claim half of your country as there own, now there's something to get riled up about.

As Confucius would say:名正言顺(translation: There can be no intelligent discussion when the language is corrupted).

It's a corruption of language to say china supports NK by sending them some fuel and food. Most of these are exchange for commodities such as timber. I would guess when NK is short of cash, China lends them money. But China has lended a lot more money to other friends, right?

So if you accuse China does not hate NK, then I agree with you, and would add that China loves SK more. Hey, what can I say, China is just this all-weather, round-the-clock kind of nice guy.

Finally, let me state preemptively that China tends to be less nice to her own citizens, such as Dalai Lama. But in that case, government's tough love apparently stopped Dalai's suicide burning campaign (I'll keep my fingers crossed)... but that is entirely another cup of tea...

They lead off with: "China is North Korea's most important ally; biggest trading partner; and main source of food, arms, and fuel. China has helped sustain Kim Jong-Il's regime and opposed harsh international economic sanctions in the hope of avoiding regime collapse and an uncontrolled influx of refugees across its eight-hundred-mile border with North Korea."

However, they do go on to say: "After Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006, experts say that China has reconsidered the nature of its alliance to include both pressure and inducements. North Korea's second nuclear test in May 2009 further complicated its relationship with China..."

2006 does indeed seem to have been something of a turning point in China-North Korea relations; and it may be that NK cannot count on China to always have its back in all things any more.

Well, if you want to talk about the good old days, let's not forget SK had a 'sunshine policy', much to US's chagrin I should add. There were family reunions, joint commercial projects, even a point Olympic team (at least the talk of it, I think), between the North and South.
As far as I know, China's dealing with NK has always been within the scope sactioned by UN resolutions. China will always treat NK nicer than the US or Japan treats them, because China has a substantial korean minority living along the border and Chinese always believes that 'blood is thicker than water'.

I read that South Korean pop music and movies were pretty popular in China. But I don't understand how the Chinese can understand the words to the Korean pop songs. Some of the S. Korean techno is pretty good. But that music doesn't typically have words. Explain to me how this phenomenon occured. How did the Chinese fall in love with music that they can't understand? I suppose Confucious might say that sometimes words don't matter.

Also, the South Koreans, Japanese, and U.S. give all kinds of food and fuel to the North Koreans, probably hundreds of times more than the Chinese, but we are hardly their friends.

This detente between everywhere else and North Korea can only be explained by one reason. That reason is that if North Korea was to become an open society and decided to reunite with the South, it would bankrupt and ruin the south. There would be such a mass migration from North Korea to the South that the South's economy would collapse. It is not a situation like that of the Germanies. West Germany was the second biggest economy at the time of reunification. East Germany was the most robust of all of the Warsaw Pact countries. So in their reunification you had a match that was not so lopsided as it is with the Koreans. Even with this not so lopsided matchup you still had massive migrations that the West German's could barely handle. The situation is a whole lot different in Korea. 20 million people rushing to Seoul or Munsan or wherever would be a catastrophe for the South Koreans. So you have this detente. And this detente will not go away. Deep in their unconscious the South Koreans fear their brethren in the North not because of a war, but because if their was a mass migration they would be toast.

All this aside I am not sure that the Dali Llama would consider himself a Chinese citizen.

Do you know why the state of North Korea still exists? It's because the South Koreans are not willing to pay for reunification. As much as South Koreans love to talk about a reunified Korea, they haven't shown even a slight willingness to pay for a reunified Korea.

Everyone loves to blame China for providing small amounts of oil/food to the North Korean government, but the fact is that even if China stopped these shipments, the North Korean government still won't fall because they have such an iron tight grip on the country. A South Korean invasion/overthrow of the NK government would be required to overthrow the NK regime.

There are 23 million North Koreans who have a near-zero net worth and no education/training that is necessary to make them productive members of a capitalistic economy. Trying to reintegrate 23 million North Koreans into a South Korea of only 48 million would represent the largest refugee crisis and wealth transfer (per capita wise) in human history.

The South Koreans would have to pay to defeat the North Korean military, house and feed 23 million refugees, educate them to become productive members of society, and spend lots of money developing North Korean infrastructure as emergency social welfare.

Economists estimate that a Korean reunification would cost somewhere between 100%-300% of South Korean GDP, even if North Korean wealth would only rise to 60% of that of South Korea.

So the next time Kim fatty fat fat does something stupid, don't just blame China. Blame those selfish South Koreans who are not willing to pay to rescue their brothers up North as well.

(Chinese support for the NK government could be pretty easily negotiated away in a trilateral agreement between the US, SK, and China. China would pull support for NK in exchange for US troops leaving the Korean peninsula after reunification; it would be a hugely win-win situation for both sides.)

And as a response to the people calling for China to stop sending oil/food to NK:

Oil/food isn't just used for the military. It's also used to feed the starving civilians, for electricity generation, and for transportation in basic civilian activities. Cutting off the aid would result in a much worse humanitarian crisis but probably will not lead to the overthrow of the NK government, because again, the NK government has such an iron tight grip on the civilian population.

Even America and South Korea are willing to send humanitarian aid, so the food/oil that China sends should not be viewed any differently.

It's not just money that is required for reunification. Both states should share the political view before they reach any agreements. It's not like S.Korea can simply pay N.Korea to reunify.

Also, noone blames China or S.Korea for N.Korea's reckless behaviour. However, China can't be free from other blame that it is one of the two main countries that countributed directly to division of Korea by supporting Communism.

Well there's no way to know what government the North Koreans prefer without overthrowing the current one first. I would assume that most NKans would be happy to be liberated by South Korea.

"China can't be free from other blame that it is one of the two main countries that countributed directly to division of Korea by supporting Communism."

I assume you refer to the Korean War? China and the USSR supported communism while America supported capitalism. At that point it wasn't clear which model was superior yet, so what's the difference between what China and the US did?

So I assume from your last sentence that at this point (today) it is clear which model is superior?

The picture you paint about China providing aid to North Korea to help starving North Koreans is not completely true. In my personal view, it's pretty much not true at all. China provides aid to North Korea, and is an 'ally' of North Korea, and supports North Korea in international disputes, because 1. China is afraid of a flood of refugees coming over the DPRK-PRC border if the current regime collapses, and 2. China does not want a unified, pro-US Korea (with US troops inside) on its border (because unification will most likely end with the South Koreans dominating the government of a unified Korea). China is not exactly giving North Korea aid out of the goodness of the Politburo's collective hearts.

In terms of overthrowing the current regime: South Korea does not have the military capability, or, as you have said, the financial capability, to overthrow the North Korean regime by itself. North Korea maintains one of the world's largest standing armies. North Korea is a nuclear regime. Any reunification effort must involve more countries than just South Korea, so blaming the "selfish" South Koreans is a gross misrepresentation of the problem of reunification.

As lemange has said, reunification has a political aspect as well as a financial aspect. The political aspect is particularly important because the government of North Korea remains in power, and with an iron-tight grip. I would personally estimate that North Korea would have a harder time getting rid of the Kim regime than Syria has had getting rid of the Assad regime.

China does not only provide aid and international support to North Korea, but also trade. China accounts for between 57% to 70% of North Korean trade (57% being 3.5 billion USD). In this, Russia is also to blame, however, as Russia is believed to make up the rest of DPRK's international trade. This trade provides North Korea with the vital ability to fund its military, its nuclear programs, its rocket program (not money well spent), etc. etc.

China is not solely to blame for North Korea's belligerency and persistency. But China could do more to dislodge the Kim regime, such as by cutting off diplomatic and economic ties to the regime (China does enough trade with the rest of the world to not suffer too much from joining in on North Korean sanctions) and by joining the rest of the world in condemning actions by the regime such as launching rockets, testing nuclear weapons, and firing artillery over the DMZ. Most of all, to remove blame for the survival of the Kims, China needs to show that it does not support it. China has not done that, which is why it is blamed, partially or solely, for the actions of the Kims.

1. China provides diplomatic support to NK, as you stated, to keep American troops away from its border. If the US would agree to leave the Korean peninsula in a reunified Korea, then China can be persuaded to ditch diplomatic support for the NK regime.

2. Again Chinese "trade" and economic support for the country in practicality isn't any different from American or South Korean aid to the country.

1. Well, I think it's the curse of the prisoner's dilemma. If unification occurs, the US can't trust China not to take over/invade an enlarged South Korea if the US pulls out, and China can't trust the US not to set up an anti-China satellite in the form of a unified Korea. Your (and 五毛党's) argument is correct, but highly unlikely.

2. Again true. However, total international aid to North Korea (excluding Chinese and Russian trade and aid) totalled 1.3 billion USD between 2005 and 2011. It was 0.9 million USD in 2011. Furthermore, food aid and energy aid by the US to North Korea has not resumed since 2009. So as of right now, China provides the bulk of aid and cash to North Korea, whether in the form of foreign currency or other forms of aid (Russia also provides some, but less). So I think China does bear at least a majority of the 'blame' in terms of aid.

1. Except that South Korea and China has warm relations. In fact there's a good chance that the South Koreans wouldn't tolerate America in their country if the North Korean threat was removed. (Why would you want a foreign military in your country if there's no threat to your country?)

2. You missed the point that none of this economic "aid" (in terms of food and oil) is to "blame" because North Korean citizens also need food and oil to survive. Saying that China provides more aid than the US oil implies that China is helping the North Korean citizens more.

So basically what I'm saying is that you shouldn't punish 23 million civilians simply because you want to punish the government.

We've seen how horribly US trade sanctions against Cuba and Iraq has failed, and has actually severely boosted Castro and Hussein's hold onto power because it gave the Cuban and Iraqi people and government a common enemy in the US. (Refer to the The Economist leader concerning Cuba from 2 weeks ago for more info.)

五毛党, (you would know this if you had bothered to Google Translate it), literally means 50 Cent Party in Simplified Chinese. 1-Dime Agent was in reference to the American CIA version of the Chinese 50 Cent Party. (The idea is that the CIA pays 10 cents US$ for each post similar to how the Chinese intelligence agency pays 50 cents RMB for each post.)

Now would a real 50 Cent Party member name himself "50 Cent Party" in Chinese as his pen name?

Maybe even a one-brain-celled retard like yourself can figure out the answer to this question?

Not financially possible for South Korea to accomplish. This isn't Eastern Germany and Western Germany reuiniting. Those two countries were at least in 'shouting distance' of one antoher from an infrastructure, health/education of citizenry, and potential industrial/manufacturing capabilities and materials. North Korea is an utterly failed state. Starvation is rampant in an area that for nearly its entire history has been a food exporter. I don't think China or the USA could afford to 'reunite' these two countries. At best, the SK government could be given a 'regency' role in the UN and help to oversee elections once the exiting government has completely collapsed.

Wow, there are so many wrong things with your post, I don't even know where to begin:

- It's not a matter of North Korea demanding money, and South Korea refusing to "pay" them. As a sovereign country, South Korea rightfully wants military assurances that it will not be attacked and/or threatened any further. Nothing that North Korea has said or done up to now has helped this matter. In fact, stuff like their "satellite launch" only makes the situation worse.

- You seem to imply that China is somehow not the problem here. They're not directly the problem, but by helping North Korea, they're enabling them to continue doing what they've been doing up to now. If North Korea was truly isolated, both financially and commercially, they would have absolutely no way to feed and/or clothe their people, and the regime would collapse. Instead of this, China helps them to survive, and North Korea keeps spending what little money they have on stupidly expensive projects like launching a satellite or making nuclear tests. Meanwhile, millions of people suffer from lack of food, heat, etc.

- I'd venture that, if you ask the average South Korean, they don't want to reunify. They may have distant family members in North Korea, but mostly, they're just scared that North Korea will attack, just like they did a couple of years ago, when they killed a few soldiers.

You make an excellent point, one that I had never really considered before. I'll just point out, though, that accusing South Koreans of selfishness in this matter might be a little harsh. It seems more like a tragic dilemma -- I'm sure they genuinely want to unite the country. But spending 100-300% of their GDP doesn't sound like a hardship, but an impossibility. Even if reunification were achieved peacefully, a financial and cultural disruption of that scale could possibly result in another civil war.

Like I said, I've never thought about this before. But off the top of my head it sounds like reunification under those terms would be a disaster for all parties. A much better solution would be the overthrow of the Kim regime and the installation of a more benevolent independent N Korean government. Such a government could leverage international goodwill into gradual improvement of their country. After all, South Koreans over the last half century have transformed their country from a war-ravished backwater into a powerful and prosperous state. I don't see any reason why an unshackled North couldn't do the same.

I suppose the best thing (in, admittedly, the remote eventuality of peaceful unification) would be to look to Germany. They managed a similar transition in the nineties, and did so with their usual brisk efficiency. I don't think E. Germany was in nearly the shambles of N. Korea, but maybe lessons learned there might apply.

Personally, I wouldn't much care if you were paid by the Chinese government. Anyone who thinks that the American government doesn't pay propagandists around the world is hopelessly naive. Plus, I don't really see a problem with it -- propaganda, after all, is a peaceful (if, um, enthusiastic) dissemination of ideas. I think it's more likely, though, that you're simply a patriot, and no reasonable person can object too much to that.

Either way, let me offer you some advice on, well, effective propagandizing. Do not rise to taunts. People like TS will not listen to you no matter what you say. Everyone else will stop listening to you the moment you start throwing around words like "retard." This isn't an elementary school playground.

heh. Someone accuses you of childish behavior and you answer: but he started it! I'm choosing to believe that's deliberate irony, because it's brilliant.

Joking aside, though, this is the Economist. People read this magazine because they like to pretend to be grown-ups. If you want a brawl, do it in PM or go to reddit: they take their flame wars seriously there :)

What you fail to realize is that a person could troll in certain posts and not troll in other posts. The fact that I troll when replying to TS' posts do not in any way suggest that "in my own opinion, my views are worthless."

Amen brother, that was a good assessment. It is not a matter of the Chinese really maintaining an evil North Korean regime. It is a matter of the west maintaining an evil North Korean regime. The west provides a crap load more aid to North Korea than China does.

The one bad thing that the Chinese do is cooperate with the North Korean regime to discourage migration out of North Korea. China has the second largest population of ethnic Koreans outside of Korea and the United States, but the Chinese actively hunt down and return illegal Korean immigrants moving into China.

Personally, I don't see how China can be blamed for anything else North Korea does. They don't like the bastard Kim Fatty Fat any more than anybody else, I can't imagine.

You really have to admire the North Korean commitment to communism. When they decided to go for it, they really went for it. Even if it means every last man, woman, and child starves they are going down all together on the good ship Communism. I for one really admire commitment to a cause no matter how displaced and erroneous it is.

seriously,the north koreans should spend the money they spent on the launch on the food, who on earth dares to invade them since they have all the support of China that happens to be my nation??? it seems the Koreans in the north are just silly and stupid and.... am going to find some nice words from the dictionary for them, lol.

One small step backwards for Kim Jr. But if he's anything like his megalomaniacal creator, this failure will only egg him on, with even more fanatical fervour. Insanity knows no bounds. Watch out World!

The 'logic' of the situation would be for NK to explode a nuke, if only to save face, since that seems to be a big thing in their culture. So what has KJU been advised? 'So sorry, great leader, but so far we've had no more luck with our nukes than we've had with our missiles. 0.2KT and 1KT is all we've managed because the bombs fizzled for some reason. It seems the plans we bought from Abdul Qadeer Khan were faulty. Word is that even the Pakistanis faked it." Or are they going to try to bluff the guy - and have a 1-and-a-bit KT pop when it should have been a 20+ KT bang? Maybe some former rocket scientists survivors will suggest otherwise, or maybe it's a deliberate plot to undermine the militarists.

So what's it going to be - nothing? In which case the bluff has been called internally and the militarists are out. I'll be a Myanmar solution next (hopefully). Or, less hopefully they don't want to risk another embarrassment, so the snakes are lying low for another day. (The argument that they might not do anything because they want that food aid has already gone up in little rocket splinters all over the Yellow Sea.)

Perhaps it will be another pop. Then it will mean another attempt at discrediting the militarists. So, still hopeful, but less so.

Finally it could, for the first time, be a real bang. 20 KT, more maybe. That still doesn't prove they have anything they can put at the top of a (non-working) missile. If it's a Uranium bomb it could be of the gun type (none of this complicated business of a controlled implosion with shock-wave lenses, serious timing issues - 'the firing squad synchronisation problem' - and all sorts to contend with, all things which can so easily go horribly wrong if the plans are not --juust sooo), so not a practical weapon (unless you have a plane which can drop 5-ton bomb and nowadays that’s really vulnerable). If you've just executed two lots of nuclear scientists surely recruitment is going to be a bit of a problem?

(For those who think that Fascist totalitarian regimes are too humane to do such things Lavrentii Beria persuaded the Russian Rocket scientists to get it right by simply asserting the next test - they had had two failures - would be a success. He needed to say no more, it was Beria speaking after all. As it happens the test was a success, and I'm sure the Communists World - and quite a few others nearer home - took note.