Abstract

In recent years, with the rapid development of the western highway construction , tunnel accounted for the proportion of the mileage of highway construction . According to the statistical analysis , the proportion of accidents in the tunnel was significantly higher than the other sections , which is much higher than the interior of the tunnel at the inlet and outlet of the tunnel accident . The safety evaluation of tunnel sections more and more attention . Unfortunately, that did not make provision for Highway Project Safety Evaluation Guide the running speed of the tunnel sections . Therefore , the prediction model is particularly important to study the running speed of the tunnel sections . This paper first analyzed from four aspects of the driver , vehicle , road and environmental factors that affect the running speed of the tunnel sections ; short tunnel in the tunnel investigation vehicle speed non-contact instrument according to the division of highway tunnels and modeling needs long tunnel , long tunnel running continuous speed . According to the variation of the speed of the long tunnel , long tunnel tunnel section divided , divided into seven feature points of different cross-section speed , traffic acquisition , to determine the feature points at V85, speed , is behind the model parameters calibration of the running speed of the statistical significance . Secondly , in the tunnel section running speed trend analysis , 11 independent variables selected from the two aspects of road space structure , traffic operating environment to analyze and quantify , univariate analysis of independent variables and running speed test independent variable running speed whether there is a significant impact . Pick out the presence of a significant impact on the operating speed factor , collinearity diagnostics , non- collinearity , and the dependent variable was significantly related to factor into the multiple regression model , establish the tunnel import , export and tunnel internal operating speed prediction model . Finally, to select the the Xi'an - Hanzhong direction tunnel sections , Chapter forecasting model parameter calibration and inspection , after inspection found that the model fits well the running speed of the tunnel sections , ideas and methods of the model are available .