The Russian ruble has clawed its way to around 65.1 against the euro, its strongest since December 26, ahead of the ECB €1.14 trillion stimulus. It’s up against the US dollar at about 59 with Brent above $60/bbl and a more stable Russian financial market.

Russian analysts suggest
ruble growth is being mostly driven by the stabilization of
Russia’s financial market. The growth comes “partly due to
the rising crude oil price, partly thanks to the measures by the
Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to stabilize the national currency
because of its active action with the currency repurchase
agreement [repo – Ed.] tools, which should stabilize the
situation in a currency market amidst active payments of foreign
corporate debt this month,” Sergey Kozlovsky, head of the
analytical department at a broker Grand Capital told TASS.

Among other factors
contributing to the ruble’s rise could be Aleksey Navalny’s
release from prison on Friday. On February 19 Navalny was
sentenced to 15 days not properly organizing a protest
meeting.

In the case of the euro,
Thursday’s ECB announcement of the start of its easy money policy
is another big factor that’s dragging it down. Mario Draghi said
the €1.14 trillion bond – buying program will kick off
Friday.

The latest US non-farm payroll data and rig counts to be released
Friday will be the major oil drivers during the day. Iran nuclear
talks also play a big part in oil pricing. Any sign of a
long-term agreement between Iran and the six countries in the
West would signal huge new supplies from Iran soon coming back on
the market.

Game of oil

WTI and Brent crude have
been mixed in Friday trading. At the time of publication Brent
was up at 60.84 a barrel , with WTI growing to $50.91 a barrel.
The escalation of fighting in the northeast Iraq and a worsening
security conditions in Libya have caused supply
worries.In
mid-January oilplungedbelow $45 a barrel for the first
time since 2009, after it hit $115 a barrel in June 2014.

Vladimir Evstifeev, deputy head of analytical department at Zenit
Bank, says investors now see fewer risks of a further oil price
fall.

“The OPEC representative’s rhetoric that includes
expectations of a lasting high oil demand, the operative
statistics of its supply in the US and also more action from
China’s authorities to stimulate the economic growth create some
protection from a possible collapse in quotations,” he told
TASS.

On Tuesday key OPEC member, and the world’s biggest oil exporter,
Saudi Arabia said next month it will make the biggest discount
cut in three years on Arab Light sold to Asia because demand is
improving. This would cut the discount by $1.40, its biggest price increase since
January 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“If they are going to keep the prices at $60 per barrel, they
can take off line a lot of tight oil production in the United
States,” Thomas Rotnem, professor of political science, told
RT.

The only question that remains unclear is whether they can really
afford to bring the oil prices down. However, some say the huge
Ghawar oil fields in the east of Saudi Arabia can be profitable
at $10 per barrel, he added.

“Saudi Arabia has definitely had a hand in trying to undercut
the fracking industry in America, and it pretty much had some
success,” Rotnem said.

Some analysts also fear
the world could run out of storage capacity soon, triggering an
even steeper fall in oil prices, as producers sell oil to the few
remaining buyers with room to store it. The US is now supplying
at the levels not seen in the past 80 years, and has filled about
70 percent of the nation’s storage capacity, according to data
from the Energy Information Administration. A separate estimate
by Citigroup shows European commercial crude storage could be
more than 90 percent full.