“Over the past 10 years economists have been so desperate for good news that they will grasp at any positive signs with giddy delight.”
Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

Anew report by the ANZ bank on the performance of each state suggests that we might be out of the economic doldrums. But while the economy looks to be improving across most of the country, the bank suggests that this improvement is unlikely to lead to stronger wage growth.

Since the GFC, finding good economic tidings has been hard work. The “new normal” of lower average growth has infected not just Australia, but all advanced economies:

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Across the OECD no nation except Ireland had a faster growing economy in the past five years than it did in the five years prior the GFC (and Ireland’s figures are an anomaly due to a revision of how it counted foreign investment).

But just possibly things are looking up here in Australia.

The new ANZ “Stateometer” report which examines how each state is performing relative both to other states and also its past performances suggests things are not doing as bad as we might think they are.

The report finds that across all states and territories, only the Northern Territory’s and ACT’s economies are losing momentum and growing below trend pace.

It found that Tasmania and South Australia are accelerating with above trend growth, Victoria’s economy is decelerating, but still growing at an above trend pace. And the economies of NSW, Queensland and WA are accelerating, but their growth remains below average.

After a truly dreadful 2016, full-time employment is generally growing strongly across all states.

Only in the ACT and Northern Territory is the annual growth of full-time employment both below where it was this time last year and also below the average growth of the past 10 years.

In NSW, WA and SA full-time employment is growing both faster than this time last year and faster than the 10 year average. And while full-time employment growth in Victoria has slowed compared to 12 months ago it remains well above the 10 year average:

ANZ notes that a big driver of growth outside of the mining states has been our housing market, where housing construction has kept the “economies humming”.

But they note that this housing stimulus in the south-east of Australia is set to “fade” and that while “housing is a positive in New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, it is not adding momentum to these states anymore.”

Certainly this is reflected in the growth of dwelling unit approvals, which has fallen sharply in both NSW and Victoria:

In NSW, one key driver of economic growth is the surge in public infrastructure spending.

The report notes that while “the backlog of private sector work remains low for now”, on the public infrastructure side things are booming. It highlights the Sydney Metro NorthWest, Sydney Light Rail, NorthConnex, and WestConnex projects, all of which are reflected in record levels of public sector infrastructure spending:

Interestingly the bank notes that while housing approvals have dropped off, the sector itself “defies gravity” and that “house prices are still rising at double digit rates in Sydney”. The report speculates that “falling housing affordability could see some interstate departures” as Sydneysiders seek more affordable housing in literally any other city in Australia.

Certainly population growth has been a big factor in the performance of Victoria. Since 2011 its population has grown much faster than the rest of Australia:

Elsewhere the news is mixed. In the west the end of the mining boom continues to hit the economy – though at least not as badly as before. The report notes that “business investment numbers should become less of a negative influence on economic growth going forward”. But even once the mining boom has completely unwound, there is little prospect for joy – with the report noting that “no major new investment is likely”.

In South Australia, while things are looking up with “an improved labour market and some pick-up in the household sector” as well as certainty from the commonwealth government’s naval ship building plan and the pick-up in renewable energy investment, it continues to lose people to other states.

In 2016, almost as many people left the state in net terms as occurred after the 1990s recession:

For Queensland, its “economy has largely moved past the construction downturn” but it remains somewhat a victim of poor luck since the GFC – falling coal prices, extreme weather events and a property sector that “over-catered on the expectation that strong population growth would continue indefinitely, which it did not”.

It also remains the only state where full-time employment growth is higher than it was last year but still below its 10 year average.

Tasmania, after years of poor growth looks to be “coming from behind” with some “renewed momentum”. In the past four years the state’s unemployment rate has fallen around 2%.

But this improved labour market coupled with housing prices being “half the average Canberra dwelling price and one third of that in Sydney” has not seen a flood of people moving to the state. The report notes that “dwelling approvals in Tasmania are below the levels recorded in the state more than ten years ago”.

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Over the past 10 years economists have been so desperate for good news that they will grasp at any positive signs with giddy delight.

Certainly this report from the ANZ suggests things are on the improve, but even within the good news of states growing above trend levels, there is explanation for why most consumers would not feel so enthused.

The report notes that “higher labour demand, due to a more confident and profitable business sector, will likely keep the negatives of negatives high household debt and a slightly appreciating Australian dollar at bay”, but they are “less confident” that it will “translate to higher wages”.

And so long as household income remains flat any good news on the economy will likely continue to be received with something less than delight.