Subscribe To

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

It
is sad to report but there has been a cold war waged against
(unnamed) against Guy McPherson but without reference against Sam
Carana and the Arctic Blog who work has been cited frequently cited
by numerous publications.

And a day or so before that.

I
had been wondering what has been motivating Paul to come with so many
videos on this theme recentlyThe following article by Guy is from today.

My
Work, and Why I Do It

People
often ask why I speak and write about abrupt climate change leading
to near-term human extinction. If we can’t fix it, why bother
knowing? It’s unclear who we are or what it means to fix this
particular predicament.

Actually,
people more frequently send me hate mail accusing me of profiting by
lying about our demise than asking questions with civility. It’s
analogous to claiming a fire lookout gets paid by the number of fires
she spots.

I
wish. I wish I were lying. I wish I were profiting. I’m not.

I
have no idea why I am compelled to defend my conclusions, all of
which are supported by abundant evidence. I suppose my inner teacher
believes I can overcome profound, willful ignorance with evidence.
This thought alone indicates my unrepentant optimism regarding the
human condition.

Few
people accuse their oncologist of profiting after she issues a fatal
diagnosis. Once the patient recovers from the shock, he sometimes
thanks the honest doctor. And if said medical doctor misunderstands
the evidence and offers an incorrect, hopeful diagnosis, then filing
a legal claim of malpractice is warranted. Indeed, it’s expected in
the United States, the most litigious society in the history of the
planet.

I
pursue and promote the truth, based on evidence. The evidence comes
primarily, and almost exclusively, from the very conservative
refereed journal literature. I’m not referring to my truth, a
notion rooted in the naively postmodern palaver that we each have our
own truth, and that each version of the truth is equally valid. Nor
am I referring to the evidence-free religious concept of Truth rooted
in patriarchy.

My
detractors include unscientific people afraid to face evidence,
lovers of the omnicidal heat engine known as civilization, and others
who lack the credentials necessary to collate and organize relevant
evidence. Few people turn to their plumber for advice about cancer.
Yet many people seek and believe diagnoses about climate change from
wholly unqualified sources.

I’m
routinely accused of horrible intentions and terrible acts. There is
no supporting evidence. None is needed when the hate is spewed online
from a culture dominated by willfully ignorant, small-minded people
with questionable intelligence writing for an audience with similar
talents. I won’t even venture into the topic of trolls paid to
promote disaster capitalism at every cost.

Were
I better-known, I suspect I’d make the list of finalists among the
most-hated people in the world. It’s a goal, in any event.

That’s
a joke, fools and trolls. If I don’t point it out, every time,
it’ll be turned against me.

As
I’ve been saying for years, people are stupid. Most of ’em, most
of the time.

Among
the offenders are offensively ignorant and ill-informed, office-bound
modelers who inexplicably believe field observations ought to fit
models, rather than the reverse. Among the worst offenders are
armchair prognosticators with video cameras and the ability to post
online their ever-changing opinions unattached to evidence. Field
observations and refereed journal literature are anathema to those
who promote the dominant narrative. The latter notably include the
folks who benefit from the omnicidal heat engine affectionately known
as civilization.

The
best critique of my work is a three-year-old series of ad hominem
attacks disguised as a blog post. It was written by a self-proclaimed
science educator without a Ph.D. degree. No thought is given to his
lack of credentials, his motives, the unprofessional quality of his
analysis, or the dated nature of his work. Other critics post on
blogs or selfie videos, presumably to counter the hundreds of journal
articles on which I rely.

My
work relies upon evidence. It is rooted in reason. I am a
rationalist. Contrary to the cries from my critics, ever eager to
attack the messenger rather than evaluate the message, I am not
mentally ill. The entire culture is insane. The inmates, who are
operating the asylum, believe they are the sane ones.

I’ve
been deemed insane since voluntarily leaving my high-pay, low-work
position at a major research university. Taking action based on
principle, rather than money, seems crazy to people afflicted with a
bad case of the dominant paradigm.

In
contrast to my critics, I do not benefit from my work in any way. It
has cost me thousands of dollars for every dollar I’ve received in
return. It has cost me the ability to do what I love. It has cost me
everybody I loved from my former life.

I
am motivated by evidence, as I wrote two years ago. In presenting the
results, in simple language, I make the evidence accessible to the
public. For this, I am insulted. My work is disparaged. I am attacked
incessantly.

My
attempts to respond kindly sometimes fail, although I can and do
distinguish between being nice and being kind. In contrast to the
mass of humans I encounter, I recognize niceness and kindness are
sometimes mutually exclusive.

The
essay linked above from two years ago is sufficient. It lacks
discussion of my inner teacher, constantly struggling to get out.
I’ve written and spoken extensively about that topic. No further
elucidation is warranted.

Indeed,
no further elucidation is warranted regarding my extensive body of
work. None will suffice for those who deny evidence. I will continue
my attempts to disengage from discussions operating strictly within
an evidence-free zone, recognizing that such a step will nullify
nearly every prospective conversation.

Hatred
will continue to flow my way not because of evidence, but rather due
to the opposite: It is more comfortable to deny evidence than to
ponder one’s own death. The processes of cultural “dumbing down”
and acceptance appreciation of ignorance and stupidity have led to
our demise. How could it have been otherwise?The usually slightly unhinged Humpty Dumpty gives a reasonaby balanced synopsis.Paul Beckwith vs. Guy McPherson: The Apocaloptimist vs. the Doomers

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

About ten days ago I woke up with pain in my right gluteal muscle so severe that I have been increasingly unable to sit on a chair other from a few minutes at a time.

I had three acupuncture treatments which very uncharacteristically seemed to exacerbate the situation. By the time I saw my chiropractor my pain levels were 9/10 and he sent me for an x-ray which indicated “mild to moderate osteoarthritis is seen at both hip joints with mild superior space narrowing but more predictable osteophytes at the joint margins and the femoral necks”.

The pain became so intense in my gluteal muscle that I went to the after-hours and was prescribed me with morphine.

Since then the intensity has gone down a little bit but in its place I have experienced nausea (and at one point), vomiting.

The morphine also makes me drowsy so any thought of seriously following the news and working on my blog is mostly fat from my mind.

Of course, underlying all of this are longstanding conditions, both diagnosed but most not diagnosed that have with with me now for 5-6 years so I have enough empirical knowledge to know that like earth systems its all downhill with my health.

I will write more (and also resume my blog) when I feel a bit more comps mentis and comfortable in my body.

Friday, 17 February 2017

President
Trump confirms during marathon press conference that his priority
before negotiating with the Russians is to shore up his position at
home. He has taken a first step towards rooting out his opponents in
the intelligence community by asking the Justice Department to
instruct the FBI to undertake a criminal investigation of the leaks
which brought down General Flynn.

President
Trump’s gigantic
sprawling 77 minute press conference was
– as is always the case with him – a bravura performance that
left the media reeling. Amid all the fire and thunder – which
included denunciations of the media and warm and supportive words for
General Flynn – it did however reveal some important things.

This
is a sensible step, clearly made following legal advice from the
Justice Department, and follows logically from the Judgment of the
appeal court of the ninth circuit which
I have analysed previously.

The
two most important things to come out of the press conference are
however (1) that President Trump still wants a detente with Russia,
and is aware that the plotting against his administration is intended
to make that more difficult; and (2) that – as
I predicted –
he has asked the Justice Department to instruct the FBI to carry out
a criminal investigation of the leaks which led to General Flynn’s
downfall.

President
Trump’s comments about Russia were in some ways the most remarkable
amongst those he made during his whole press conference, with the
President directly accusing his opponents of weakening his position
in negotiations with the Russians by giving the Russians grounds to
doubt that he is in a strong enough position to make a deal with them

If
we could get along with Russia, that’s a positive thing. We have a
very talented man, Rex Tillerson, who’s going to be meeting with
them shortly and I told him. I said “I know politically it’s
probably not good for me.” The greatest thing I could do is shoot
that ship that’s 30 miles off shore right out of the water.

Everyone
in this country’s going to say “oh, it’s so great.” That’s
not great. That’s not great. I would love to be able to get along
with Russia. Now, you’ve had a lot of presidents that haven’t
taken that tack. Look where we are now. Look where we are now. So, if
I can – now, I love to negotiate things, I do it really well, and
all that stuff. But – but it’s possible I won’t be able to get
along with Putin.

Maybe
it is. But I want to just tell you, the false reporting by the media,
by you people, the false, horrible, fake
reporting makes it much harder to make a deal with Russia. And
probably Putin said “you know.” He’s sitting behind his desk
and he’s saying “you know, I see what’s going on in the United
States, I follow it closely. It’s going to be impossible for
President Trump to ever get along with Russia because of all the
pressure he’s got with this fake story.”
OK?

And
that’s a shame because if we could get along with Russia – and by
the way, China and Japan and everyone. If we could get along, it
would be a positive thing, not a negative thing……

All
of those things that you mentioned are very recent, because
probably Putin assumes that he’s not going to be able to make a
deal with me because it’s politically not popular for me to make a
deal.So
Hillary Clinton tries a re-set. It failed. They all tried. But I’m
different than those people.

(bold
italics dded)

Trump’s
belief that the Russians doubt that because of the domestic
opposition he faces he is capable of delivering on a deal he agrees
with them is undoubtedly right. It is interesting that Trump
himself realises it.

It
shows that Trump’s priority at the moment is to shore up his
position at home before he negotiates with the Russians. As an
experienced deal-maker he clearly does not want to be put in a
position where the Russians doubt that he is able to deliver on what
he promises, and this explains why
negotiations with the Russians have been put back.

This
in part also explains the criminal investigation into the leaks he
has asked the Justice Department to tell the FBI to undertake.
Clearly he understands that until he has mastered his
bureaucracy and proved to the Russians that he is the master of his
own house there is no sense in his negotiating with them. That
he has done what he
previously hinted at,
and has asked the Justice Department to instruct the FBI to
investigate the leaks, he has now confirmed

Yes,
we’re looking at them very — very, very serious. I’ve gone to
all of the folks in charge of the various agencies and we’re —
I’ve actually called the Justice Department to look into the leaks.
Those are criminal leaks. They’re put out by people either in
agencies — I
think you’ll see it stopping because now we have our people in.
You know, again, we don’t have our people in because we can’t get
them approved by the Senate.

(bold
italics dded)

Note
that the highlighted words all but confirm a point I have repeatedly
made: that the reason Trump has been unable to act against the
leakers before is because the Department of Justice under Sally Yates
has been working against him.

To
be clear this is going to be a very different investigation from the
various FBI investigations into the nebulous claims of contacts
between President Trump’s campaign team and the Russians details of
which have been appearing all over the media. As Trump himself
all but says – and as the FBI investigators undertaking them surely
know – those investigations are a complete waste of time, and will
lead nowhere, because no-one has identified a crime for anyone to
investigate.

By
contrast in the case of the leaks that brought about the downfall of
General Flynn, not only is there no
doubt a crime was committed,
but The New York Times and CNN know the identity of the perpetrators,
and probably enough is already known about them anyway to make it
possible to identify them without too much difficulty.

Unlike
the investigations into the allegations that are being made against
Donald Trump’s campaign team, this investigation therefore stands a
very strong chance of success, resulting in arrests, charges and
legal action.

I
would guess that already by now as I am writing this various people
in The New York Times, CNN, the US intelligence community, and former
officials of the Obama administration, are busy phoning their lawyers

This is how CNN covers it:

Washington
(CNN)President Donald Trump gave lengthy news conference Thursday, a
last-minute addition to the schedule, where he announced his new
selection to lead the Labor Department, Alexander Acosta. His
back-and-forth with reporters touched on everything from his critique
of the media, his Electoral College margin of victory, the workings
of his administration, former national security adviser Michael
Flynn's resignation and more.

Here
are the most memorable lines:

On
how things are going

"This
administration is running like a fine-tuned machine."

On
leaks, news

"The
leaks are real, the news is fake."

On
picking his next question

"I
want to find a friendly reporter."

On
false claims about his Electoral College win's spot in history

"I
was given that information, I don't know."

On
his own speech

"I'm
not ranting and raving, I'm just telling you you're dishonest
people."

On
Obamacare

"Obamacare,
they fill up our alleys with people you wonder how they got there."

On
reports about Russia contacts

"You
can talk all you want about Russia -- which was all a fabricated fake
news ... It is all fake news. It is all fake news."

On
Flynn

"I
don't think he did anything wrong. If anything, he did something
right."

On
why Flynn was fired

"The
thing is he didn't tell our Vice President properly and then he said
he didn't remember... that just wasn't acceptable to me."

On
an alternative career

"I'd
be a pretty good reporter."

On
dealing with Russia

"The
greatest thing I could do is shoot that ship that's 30 miles offshore
right out of the water. Everyone will say, "Oh, it's so great,
it's so great. That's not great."

On
nuclear holocaust and Russia

"Nuclear
holocaust would be like no other. They are a very powerful nuclear
country and so are we. But if we have a good relationship with
Russia, believe me, that is as good thing, not a bad thing."

On
the travel ban

"We
had a very smooth rollout of the travel ban, we had a bad court."

On
violence in Chicago

"There
are two Chicagos, as you know. One Chicago that is incredible,
luxurious and safe. There is another Chicago that is worse than
almost any of the places in the Middle East that we talk about and
that you talk about on the news."

Thursday, 16 February 2017

Last
line of Defence

As
the Port Hills fires are fought from land and air, police warn they
can change direction and move incredibly quickly - people should be
ready to evacuate, and not go to the area to look or take photos

What
you need to know:

• Christchurch
Homes have been destroyed by a raging fire which continued to burn
overnight, jumping into Victoria Park and spreading to around 1850ha
of land

• At
least 450 homes have been officially evacuated. Many others have
self-evacuated

• A
state of civil emergency has been declared in Christchurch and Selwyn

• If
you are at all worried or uncomfortable remaining in your home,
please evacuate

• People
are advised to stay away from the hills to allow emergency services
access and ensure swift evacuation

• Cashmere
Primary is closed.

How
did it start?

• The
first fire — believed to have been caused by an electrical
problem — began on Monday, along Early Valley
Rd in Lansdowne. By 7pm, crews were battling a second
blaze on Marley's Hill, south of the city. Authorities don't
know how that blaze began, but believe it started in a car park off
Summit Rd.

"That
house that just caught fire about 10 mins ago is our house," he
said. "It survived the night and then no choppers [were] up
there in the morning and obviously a little fire started up and there
was no-one there [to protect it]."

"Right
now it looks like our house is getting destroyed. It's a bit of a
shame, quite a big shame… It's quite a beautiful family house."

On
the phone to his family, Mr Reese told them if they arrived quickly
they would be able to see the last part of their house before the
flames finished it off.

"It's
still hard to believe. I barely trust myself that that's our house
but it certainly looks that way. I don't want to believe it."

"Even
when we were evacuated, we didn't think this would be the last time
in this house. Can't believe it," he said.

More
Christchurch homes were evacuated this morning as a huge fire burned
on the Port Hills, and at least five helicopters with monsoon buckets
were dispatched at first light.

Brian
Ellwood, who lives on Dyers Pass Rd near the Sign of the Takahe, was
told to leave home about 4.30am.

He
and his wife put their two cats, three chickens and two children in
their cars and parked up at a petrol station.

"All
the important things, we got," he said.

Police
inspector Derek Erasmus said the force of the fire overnight was
frightening.

"Trees
exploding, long lines of fire ... across hillsides. Looking at what
the fire service were doing, an incredibly difficult and dangerous
job for them."

He
said 85 extra army and police staff were brought in overnight to help
evacuate people.

Helicopters
with monsoon buckets and ground crews are tackling a blaze close to a
house at the top of Worsleys Road. Photo: RNZ / Joelle Daly

Governors
Bay School and Cashmere Primary School are closed. Cashmere principal
Gavin Burn said for families with a lot going on the decision was to
create certainty, so they know where their children are.

About
100 houses are without electricity power this morning. Lines company
Orion said the focus today was on ensuring the power supply to water
pumping stations near the fire to keep the water pressure up.

Two
major pylon circuits that cross the Port Hills are out but an
underground loop cable commissioned in the last year is keeping up
the power supply to the city, it said.

Christchurch
civil defence controller Dave Adamson told Morning Report the
weather forecast was not good for firefighting, with winds expected
to develop this afternoon.

If
there were shifts in wind direction other areas could be in the line
of the fire.

About
450 houses have been evacuated with anything up to 1000 people having
left their homes, he said. Parts of Cashmere Hills, Westmorland,
Cracroft and Early Valley Road were evacuated last night.

Seven
houses are believed to have been damaged by the fire since yesterday,
on Early Valley Road and Worsley Road, civil defence said. That was
an update to a civil defence report last night that three homes had
been destroyed on Worsley Spur in addition to five confirmed
destroyed on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Flames
leap close to a house in the Port Hills. Photo: Supplied /
Matthew Rankin

The
Fire Service said a total of 15 helicopters and two fixed-wing
aircraft will be used to fight the fire from the air today, and more
than 200 firefighters will be on the ground.

A
fire ban has been brought in from South Canterbury to Hurunui as
resources are put towards tackling the Port Hills blaze.

Police
on the scene as the fire burns and evacuations continue. Photo: RNZ
/ Conan Young

PM,
Civil Defence Minister, head to Christchurch

Prime
Minister Bill English has cancelled his events today to fly to
Christchurch.

Civil
Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee, who heading to Christchurch, said
the situation was "getting pretty serious".

"The
requirement to get that fire out is even more pressing than at any
point in the last couple of days."

Declaring
a state of emergency had been "a little slow" but once it
had been done, the civil defence response was okay, he told Morning
Report. Firefighters and others are doing great work in
dangerous conditions.

"The
people out there fighting the fire are very brave people."

Mr
Brownlee is expected to meet the mayors of Selwyn and Christchurch
this morning and be briefed on the emergency response.

A
fire engine speeds through Christchurch as smoke billows from the
Port Hills fire. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Paul
Harding Brown and his wife Deborah left their Kennedys Bush Road
house twice - first on Monday night and again last night - and were
waiting at the bottom of the road to be allowed back home.

The
fire on Monday night was one hill over from their home. Last night it
was 200-300m from the end of the road.