Tuesday, July 7, 2015

The latest ENSO wrap up from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicates that the El Niño is likely to continue to strengthen, in part because of tropical cyclones.

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

10 comments:

This reminds me that GISTemp for June this year must be imminent. I'm expecting that the monthly anomaly value may even have an '8' immediately after the '.', and rival the values for February and March. Unless the oceans and southern hemisphere were particularly cool, which doesn't seem likely.

Right now the anomaly forecast for early July looks very low. El Nino maybe ramping up, but global temperature, while very high, is in a stall since the end of 2014. The PDO has been down in every month this year. Nick's guys are predicting .77C for GISS for June.

Prediction: Over at WUWT, they'll be screaming and jumping up and down, and old Bob Tisdale will say "See? I told you so!" and declare victory, and there will be lots of general mirth and backslapping. Over what, exactly, I don't know. But it will probably be something along the lines of proof at last that el ninos cause warming.

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All you need to know about WUWT

WUWT insider Willis Eschenbach tells you all you need to know about Anthony Watts and his blog, WattsUpWithThat (WUWT). As part of his scathing commentary, Wondering Willis accuses Anthony Watts of being clueless about the blog articles he posts. To paraphrase:

Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece...(he couldn't tell if it would)... stand the harsh light of public exposure.

Definition of Denier (Oxford): A person who denies something, especially someone who refuses to admit the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence.
‘a prominent denier of global warming’
‘a climate change denier’

Alternative definition: A former French coin, equal to one twelfth of a Sou, which was withdrawn in the 19th century. Oxford. (The denier has since resurfaced with reduced value.)