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12.1.19

"Snow or no snow," that is the question.

I predict this weathergirl is 100% with regard to her weather-related commentary.

To be fair, I acknowledge that Mother Nature is difficult to predict. Sometimes you get what was promised. Sometimes you get what was expected. And sometimes you get clocked with a roundhouse kick to the side of the head that you didn't see coming.

With that said, the weather people seem pretty sure of themselves this time. Their inches and probability percentages differ slightly but, they all seem to be pretty sure it's going to snow.

The National Weather Service (NWS) prediction (above) calls for 4-6" in the DC area, implying a 100% chance of snow, but not sure of the accumulation (understandable). They also put expiration dates on their predictions, so they can change them without looking more unreliable than they are.

The Weatherbug app (below), which uses data from users, says the probability of snow is "near 100%," why not just go there? C'mon, Weatherbug! "You can doooeeeet!" At least they have the confidence to throw out probability percentages like the big guys.

Of note, however, The NWS also thinks there's only a 50% chance of snow today, but 100% on Sunday -- and they think it will also be snowing on Monday (20%).

I'll be surprised if they're accurate, and won't pick on them anymore. But, my experience is that, when they go all out and warn people more than 1 or 2 days ahead of when they think it will be snowing, they're wrong. Conversely, when they *don't* warn you of anything serious: you get buried.

I'm still sick since last Tuesday, so at least this will give me something to think about other than Netflix while I drain my body of it's 4-6 inches of snot with a 50% chance of it letting up by Sunday.

UPDATES:

Saturday, 1300 - NWS sends an SMS alert that it will start snowing in 110 minutes! Accumulation also increased to 5-10 inches.

Sunday, 1630 - A few flakes are floating around Crystal City in Arlington, VA. NSTR.