Carry me home – the source of high yield returns

To say the past decade has been an eventful one for the high yield market is putting it somewhat mildly. The first half of 2007 was a golden time: markets were in rude health making pre-crisis highs, politicians were for the most part sane, competent, normal human beings, and a eurozone crisis involved accidentally skiing to a Swiss après-ski bar. The following decade has not been quite as smooth, enduring as we have the global financial (2008/9), eurozone (2011), and energy and commodity crises (2014/15) of recent years.

Yes – those were happy days indeed, but with the benefit of hindsight, a seemingly terrible time to buy any risk asset. Within high yield, valuations in 2007 were at their most extreme with the additional yield on offer from high yield bonds (versus similar maturity government bonds) at its all-time low of 2.3%, versus around 4% today.

Taking a closer look at how the asset class has actually performed from this ‘terrible’ entry point illustrates much about the source of returns within high yield.

A few things stand out. First is the impressive total return of 110%. To be sure, there were some hugely volatile periods, none more so than the dramatic – albeit brief – near 40% drawdown in early 2009, as well as of course 2011 and 2015. These periods can have a big impact on the short-term price performance of the asset class. But in the context of long-term total returns, we can see that price volatility is dwarfed by one, compelling source of return – carry.

Of the 110% you have made in high yield over the past decade, some 112% of it came from income, and recall that this was from a ‘terrible’ time to buy!

The key to exploiting the carry in high yield is to stay invested – sorry, no carry for day traders – and adopt an active approach to selecting the companies you wish to lend to. Remember, high yield is at its core a mechanism for transforming the real-world cash flows of cash generative companies into coupon flow for investors who provide debt financing. Given we have long known this about the high yield market, it is why we emphasise these very cash flows when selecting companies to invest in.

Perhaps it is asking too much for financial journalists to lead with ‘Massive Coupon Income Hits HY Market’; but we do think investors should keep this in mind when they next read about the ever-present impending doom of the high yield market.

Important information

For Professional Investors only and not to be distributed to or relied upon by retail clients.

The opinions presented are those of Kames Capital fund managers as at the time of publishing and may change as subsequent conditions vary. They are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Companies mentioned may not necessarily be held in any of Kames Capital funds. The information and opinions contained in these pieces are derived from proprietary and non proprietary sources deemed by Kames Capital to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener/viewer.

This site is not intended for use by any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the content in this site.

For Professional Investors only and not to be distributed to or relied upon by retail clients.

The opinions presented are those of Kames Capital fund managers as at the time of publishing and may change as subsequent conditions vary. They are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Companies mentioned may not necessarily be held in any of Kames Capital funds. The information and opinions contained in these pieces are derived from proprietary and non proprietary sources deemed by Kames Capital to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener/viewer.

This site is not intended for use by any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the content in this site.