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The interesting thing about 10,000 hrs is that what you spend that 10,000 on is what you end up mastering. And while repetition might seem the fastest way to racking up the hours repetion or 'blocked learning' is useful only to a point, beyond that it actually inhibits learning by giving false confidence and learning can go backward. Fortunately in the traditional arts there are all the ingredients to avoid this through variety, stress testing, as well as blocked learning drills.
One of my favourites teachers, David Brown said most of the time in the dojo is wasted which he then wen on to say with bowing in, exercises you don't need, talking, wasting time with an uke that doesn't get it , wasting time with a teacher that doesn't get it, paining up etc... adn when you cut class time back the parts where you are learning can be pretty small.

best

Next I want to say to Daniel, that the whole idea that the time spent talking in a dojo is wasted, is the biggest load of baloney i have ever heard. The whole idea that training with a uke who (doesn't get it) or a sensei who doesn't neither, what exactly is it supposed to be that they are supposed to be getting? Your style of martial art? Well maybe not. But the aiki-do is the way of the real ninja, and it takes determination, commitment and engagement. Things which cannot be learned over night, and take many months and years even to get down to a tee. Anyone who somehow believes that the ritual bowing in and out, or even colloquial discussions in and around classes, can be skipped over for some 'better' style, needs to have their head examined if you ask me!

"The second myth is that it requires at least ten years, or 10,000 hours,
of deliberate practice to reach an elite level of performance..... But the data indicate that there is an enormous amount of variability in deliberate practice—even in elite performers.
One player in Gobet and Campitelli's (2007) chess sample took 26 years of serious involvement in chess to reach a master level, while another player took less than 2 years to reach this level."

"The second myth is that it requires at least ten years, or 10,000 hours,
of deliberate practice to reach an elite level of performance..... But the data indicate that there is an enormous amount of variability in deliberate practice—even in elite performers.
One player in Gobet and Campitelli's (2007) chess sample took 26 years of serious involvement in chess to reach a master level, while another player took less than 2 years to reach this level."

Summary:

Q: "How long will it take me to get a black belt?"
A: "Can't tell you."

How long does it take to be promoted??? Doesn't matter what system you are in but when your skill level reaches the level of the rank you are going for, then you should be promoted after you are tested. How long it takes is entirely up to you.

"The second myth is that it requires at least ten years, or 10,000 hours,
of deliberate practice to reach an elite level of performance..... But the data indicate that there is an enormous amount of variability in deliberate practice—even in elite performers.
One player in Gobet and Campitelli's (2007) chess sample took 26 years of serious involvement in chess to reach a master level, while another player took less than 2 years to reach this level."

This is a nice article, but important to consider that cognitive skill development such as in a chess player is quite different to acquisition of a physical motor skill which might account for the difference. Also must be careful to seperate out individual case studies vs large scale data.
Sometimes though apparent outliers ( could almost segway to the gladwell book here) have a vast background in other , but related activities. Its a whole can of worms. The paper gives a good treatment.

Violin, as a fine motor skill skill is probably a reasonable comparision with aiki. Not that learning violin in my youth seemed to help my aiki in a tangable way- other than appreciation of delayed gratification, discipline etc..

Q: "How long will it take me to get a black belt?"
A: "Can't tell you."

...and we're right back at the beginning.

Grading isn't based on talent though, as far as I can work it out it comes down to a combination of time, commitment, knowledge, aptitude and attitude in varying proportions depending on the society, sensei and student.

Whenever I've heard one of our society's instructors being asked the question the answer is always "it depends, but rarely less than four years and sometimes quite a bit longer"; everyone tends to be quite matter of fact and perhaps they're conscious that if a starter got an analytical or mystical response they might get switched off.

We don't have fixed requirements for time on the mat, we grade when sensei says we're ready to grade. I accept this at face value, it's certainly not my place to question his judgement on these matters even if I might feel a few more weeks intensive practice on one kata or another would be nice. I'll get that practice in the long run since my home class sees a steady influx of starters.

There's a core syllabus requirement for each grade (built around the 9 arts of Shihonage Iriminage Kotegaeshi Kaitenage Tenchinage Ikkyo Nikyo Sankyo Yonkyo up to 1st kyu) but beyond that a lot of discretion is allowed to local sensei. Some of our dojos bring in weapons, randori and koshi from 6th kyu so people don't get intimidated by the things that can cause issues later on. Some have formal 6th kyu grading, others do it combined with 5th kyu, etc.

Yep, grades don't matter much and it's enjoying the practice and the journey for their own sakes that's most important. However, I think a key aspect of grading in a non-competitive art like ours is that it allows us to test our mettle under sustained mental and physical pressure.

Dan's cost comparison on page one got me thinking. I've long suspected it's all about love not money in our society since I was able to compare with a tai chi/kung fu school that I was involved in for a bit which was more than twice as costly (it was the money-grabbing vibe that led me to find another tai chi class) but it seems we really are at the bargain end of the market

That's based on training twice a week for 48 weeks in a year (pay as you go) at today's rate of 1.54$ to the £. I tend to do more courses than that and summer school as well but this is probably a reasonable representation of a fairly typical path to shodan. Let's just not mention the fuel costs to drive over the mountain to our 2nd class each week.

Going back to the original question of whether one would have to retake the tests if he were to move from, for example, Indonesia to the United States...

For the kyu grades, I'm sure that it's at the discretion of the dojo whether or not to recognize the level one has obtained. Having some form of documentation will help, no doubt.

For example, in Spain, I was provided a booklet to document the tests I had passed and the seminars I had attended. Each test/level and seminar was signed and dated by the head Sensei in the booklet. When I moved to the U.S., I provided this documentation to the head Sensei at the new dojo. He was happy to acknowledge the level I'd attained.

And in his words, "When your skill reaches the next level, provided the time requirements have been met, you can test for the next level."

But again, deciding whether or not to recognize your kyu level is really going to be up to the Sensei at the new dojo.