Boston weather: Get out your jacket for Saturday morning

May 22, 2015

Forecast discussion: After a few rain showers during the early morning, the low pressure system moved out to the northeast, allowing for high pressure to return. We had delightful weather over Boston on Friday, with a high of 74. However, a cold front passing into western Massachusetts at the moment will bring some very cold air down from Canada. In fact, Boston may come close to breaking a record for lowest temperature for May 23. We will have to reach 40 degrees to tie, but I am going to keep us just above that mark. Due to a strong northwest breeze, it will keep the air moving, and not allow for radiational cooling.

It will not be much warmer on Saturday, as the cold air slowly retreats back into Canada. With a strong west-northwest wind, high temperatures tomorrow will only reach the lower 60’s. I wouldn’t put on the 2 piece bikini just yet. Winds will eventually turn to the southwest Saturday night, and our temperatures will be warmer, with highs reaching the middle 70’s for Sunday.

For the last several days, the computer models continue to show me different scenarios for Memorial Day. After looking over today’s model run, I am beginning to think the American model may be a little too wet. With a warm front lingering near Southern New England, I do not feel there will be enough upper level dynamics to make widespread showers. However, a widely isolated shower during the late afternoon is still possible. So, I would not call it a washout, but we will have gray skies and more humidity in the air.

The American model continues to add widespread showers and light rain for Tuesday, and the European model is now showing some precipitation overhead. A weak cold front will slowly dissipate before reaching our area. So, I am seeing more scattered showers for Wednesday, before the activity moves to our north by the early evening. We will go into the last days of May with partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures Thursday and next Friday will range from the middle 70’s to lower 80’s.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and cold with a low of 45.Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a high of 63. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 14-17 mph.Fenway Park Forecast (7:15 p.m. vs. Rangers): Partly cloudy, 60.Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 50. Winds will come from the southwest at 11-14 mph.Sunday: Mostly sunny into the late afternoon, with increasing clouds. We will see a high of 76.Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 57.Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy with the slight chance for a late afternoon shower. We will see a high of 74.Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 60.