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In ’08 Politics, Rhode Island Defies Its Size

Former President Bill Clinton addressed a campaign rally at
Bryant University in Smithfield, R.I., on Thursday.Credit
C. J. Gunther for The New York Times

PROVIDENCE, R.I. — For the first time anyone can remember, this small state is relishing its role in the presidential primary cycle.

The state, with only 665,000 eligible voters, has seen astonishing surges in both voter registration and grass-roots political activity.

And while a scant 32 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are at stake, compared with a combined 389 in Ohio and Texas, which will also vote on Tuesday, the candidates are lavishing attention on Little Rhody.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York visited the state, which is heavily Democratic, last Sunday. She also dispatched her husband here Thursday and her daughter, Chelsea, to make appearances on Friday.

Senator Barack Obama’s wife, Michelle, stopped here on Feb. 20; she was introduced by her brother, who happens to be the men’s basketball coach at Brown University. Mr. Obama, of Illinois, will hold a last-minute rally on Saturday in Providence.

No presidential candidate stumped here before the 2004 primary, and the state’s turnout that year — barely 6 percent of registered voters — was among the worst in the nation.

“We will not have another chance to so directly affect our political system from here in little Rhode Island,” Max Chaiken, a junior at Brown, told fellow students packed into a coffee shop to hear a surrogate for Mr. Obama — the hip young movie star Kal Penn — on Thursday.

With its many working-class whites, women and retirees, Rhode Island is friendly turf for Mrs. Clinton, who has the support of most Democratic leaders here and maintains a slight lead in the polls. But The Providence Journal reported that almost half of the 43,000 new voters who had registered here in the last year were ages 18 to 29, a demographic Mr. Obama has pursued with great success in other states.

In another potentially bad sign for Mrs. Clinton, who does best with loyal Democrats, most of the new voters registered as unaffiliated. If they turn out heavily on Tuesday and Mrs. Clinton loses Rhode Island, she will lose more credibility, even if Ohio or Texas ends up in her column.

Vermont also votes on Tuesday, but it has even fewer Democratic delegates, 23; Mr. Obama is heavily favored there.

Speaking of Rhode Island, Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown, said: “Even though it’s small, it represents part of a whole network of mostly Northeastern states that she’s won and that traditionally go Democratic in the general election. So it helps her make the case that people should take her very seriously.”

Before Mr. Obama swept all 11 contests that have taken place since Feb. 5, when Mrs. Clinton won the delegate-rich prizes of California and New York, she was thought to have Rhode Island sewn up. But a Brown University poll this month gave her only an eight-point lead and found that more than a third of voters were still undecided. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points.

Mr. Obama has spent $311,000 on advertising here compared with $130,000 for Mrs. Clinton, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group. His ground campaign, using college-age volunteers, is at least as fierce as hers.

“Rhode Island should be Clinton country,” said Darrell West, another political science professor at Brown, “but in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin she started to lose the kind of people who have traditionally voted for her — women, senior citizens and working class. So she has to be concerned that even in a state like Rhode Island, she is facing some risk.”

Steve D’Agostino, a paving contractor who went to hear former President Bill Clinton on Thursday at a rally in Smithfield, said he was leaning toward Mrs. Clinton but interested in Mr. Obama’s promise of change.

“The Clintons have a history of doing well in Rhode Island,” said Mr. D’Agostino, 50, “and she’s got more clout. My gut is telling me she is more experienced, but we definitely need change.”

Several women at the rally, however, said they remained loyal to Mrs. Clinton. Rosemary Costigan, 50, called Mr. Obama arrogant and said the news media had given him a free pass while heaping scorn on Mrs. Clinton.

“I am so angry at how she’s been treated,” said Ms. Costigan, a nurse from Pawtucket. “If she does not win on Tuesday — and I’m confident she will — I am not voting for president in November.”

Most of the state’s political establishment is backing Mrs. Clinton, though one of its two congressmen, Representative Patrick J. Kennedy, endorsed Mr. Obama, as did former Senator Lincoln D. Chafee, a strong foe of the Iraq war and a longtime Republican who switched his affiliation to independent last year. Many of its 11 superdelegates have committed to Mrs. Clinton.

But even at the Clinton rally, there was evidence of fervor for Mr. Obama. Brian Campbell, who took his grandmother, a die-hard Clinton fan, to the rally, said he much preferred Mr. Obama’s style and personality.

“When she speaks I don’t feel the same sincerity or the same belief in her words,” Mr. Campbell, 30, said of Mrs. Clinton.

After hearing Mr. Penn’s pitch for Mr. Obama, Bo Tao, a senior at Brown, said he was leaning toward Mr. Obama despite some trepidation about the excitement around his candidacy.

“I know there’s a lot of hype that might be factoring into it,” Mr. Tao said, “but at the same time I have a gut feeling that he’s very unique, and America hasn’t seen anything like that in a long time.”

But Maureen Moakley, a political science professor at the University of Rhode Island, warned that the so-called youth vote was not fail-safe for Mr. Obama because many of Rhode Island’s college students were registered in other states or at precincts far from their campus.

“Half these kids are from out of state,” Professor Moakley said.

A version of this article appears in print on , on page A13 of the New York edition with the headline: In Crucial ’08 Contest, Rhode Island Defies Its Minuscule Size. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe