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How the heck did we end up here? The almighty and powerful President Trump doubled down on his vitriol and contempt for Prime Minister Trudeau (and ostensibly now us Canadians), pledging to punish the “people of Canada” for Trudeau’s comments in a G7 wrap up conference. Quoting Trump, “That’s going to cost a lot of money for the people of Canada. He learned you can’t do that.”

Think about that for a second. Trump is willing to blow up critical and enduring relationships with key allies (an ally whose soldiers fought and died on the beaches of Normandy and in the hills of Afghanistan alongside US soldiers), cause untold damage to our economy and workers, and potentially harm the US economy as an escalating trade war will likely lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth for the US. And for what exactly? Trudeau reiterated the same talking points at the G7 conference that he said a week earlier to US media outlets.

It’s becoming increasingly clear and concerning that Trump makes major policy decisions based on knee-jerk and emotional reactions, especially if he feels slighted in any way. Basically facts and long-standing norms are secondary to his gut feelings. While this may have a place in finance and business transactions, I’m less convinced this approach will yield great success in politics and world affairs. So today I examine the facts behind the US/Canada trade relationship and try to poke holes in Trump’s position that a trade war with Canada is just and appropriate.

Trump likes to say (over and over again) that Canada takes advantage of the US through a large trade deficit with the US. What do the facts point to?

According to the US Census Bureau, the US had a US$17 billion deficit with Canada in 2017, but this only considers merchandise trade and excludes services. With our economies transitioning to a more service-based economy, shouldn’t we also include them in the calculations? When we include services the US deficit with Canada actually turns into a surplus. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (the government agency overseeing US trade policy), the US actually had a surplus of US$8 billion in 2017, when including services.

Admittedly there are different estimates and methodologies of calculating US/Canada trade (e.g., how re-exported goods from other countries are calculated), but the key point is that when considering goods and services, trade is essentially balanced, and in fact was in the US’s favour in 2017.

US Merchandise Trade Deficit with Canada

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

I’ve always liked the expression “If all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail”, and I think this is entirely appropriate with Trump’s approach to dealing with US trade deficits. He appears to paint each country with the same brush, being indiscriminate with his ire over US trade deficits. For example, the US merchandise trade deficit with China was US$375 billion last year, which as a percentage of total trade equated to 59%. For Mexico and Japan the US trade deficit was US$71 and US$69 billion, respectively, which represented 13% and 34% of total trade, respectively. Compare that to Canada where the US trade deficit was US$17 billion representing just 3% of total trade.

Putting aside our extensive relations with the US (e.g., similar values, history, highly interconnected economies, and shared border), purely from a factual trade relationship, why are Trump and his aides going so hard at us when we have the second highest trade with the US among its top trading partners and which is essentially balanced? Seems like we should be getting a better deal than China and others, no?

US Trade With Top 5 Trading Partners

Source: US Census, Turner Investments

Finally, Trump loves to claim that trade is not “fair” with Canada and points to our dairy industry and supply management system as an example of this. As Garth recently stated, this is a complete red herring on a number of fronts. First, the dairy industry in Canada accounts for $20 billion annually, less than 1% of our overall GDP and currently represents 0.2% of US goods exported to Canada. For argument’s sake let’s say that Canada opens up our dairy industry to the US and they grab 20% of market share in Canada equating to $4 billion of annual dairy sales. As a percentage of overall US/Canada trade (US$582 billion), this would equate to just 0.7% of total trade between the two countries.

Second, the US imposes quotas and tariffs on important US industries like the US sugar industry. The US is one of the largest consumers of sugar with the industry enjoying trade protection policies since as far back to 1789. Through the US farm bill, which provides US$20 billion annually in subsidies to US farmers, they put a strict quota on foreign sugar imports. The point being, we’re being made out to be evil villains through our supply management system when the US protects certain industries as well.

Finally, our high tariffs on dairy imports do not tell the whole story. According to the World Bank, the average tariff charged by Canada is 0.8% versus the US at 1.6%, as captured in the table below. So I believe Trump is emphasizing the dairy industry to help support his narrative and policies, but the overall numbers show otherwise.

Average Tariff Rates Charged by G7 Nations

Source: The World Bank, Turner Investments

Whether you love or hate Trump I think it’s fair to say that he plays fast and loose with the truth and facts. According to Washington Post’s Fact Checker analysis, Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims since becoming President.

As I’ve outlined in this blog the facts point to a fairly balanced trade relationship between Canada and the US, so I’m completely baffled by Trump’s approach and recent decision to levy tariffs on our steel and aluminum industry. Now he’s threatening to enact new tariffs on Canadian autos and parts, which would be devastating to our economy and workers. Is this how you treat long standing friends and allies? Begs the question, with friends like this, who needs enemies?

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

Good commentary on tariffs including comments from Volvo at large new plant opening in US. Among facts cited: Swedish companies employ ~365-385k americans and proposed (threatened) tariffs would cause thousands in job losses in the US. Apparently Nikki Haley left early. Maybe in her Volvo?

Ryan this is an easy one to understand the Beast. Just do a search – Mayo Clinic – narcissistic personality disorder symptoms and causes. There will be 13 symptoms, and 7 bonus areas of great concern. Hey its just like magic, because there is Trump who needs help quickly with a code blue.

‘With friends like these’ indeed. Trump is doing tremendous damage. There is of course the hope he will not be re-elected & that whoever replaces him will mend relationships.

I read a headline that indicates our current government is willing to offer asylum to the DREAMer’s – immigrant youth in the USA who Trump is apparently willing to punt. Some 700,000 youth altogether. In this case, Trump’s ideology may work in Canada’s favor by mitigating the effects of our rapidly aging population.

#13 Linda on 06.23.18 at 3:30 pm
‘With friends like these’ indeed. Trump is doing tremendous damage. There is of course the hope he will not be re-elected & that whoever replaces him will mend relationships.

I read a headline that indicates our current government is willing to offer asylum to the DREAMer’s – immigrant youth in the USA who Trump is apparently willing to punt. Some 700,000 youth altogether. In this case, Trump’s ideology may work in Canada’s favor by mitigating the effects of our rapidly aging population.
………………….

How many spare bedrooms do you have ? Maybe they could pitch tents in your back yard.

This article was well done, outlining important contradictions to ponder. Ryan deserves an A for his narrative, but the question remains what can T2 do? I do not have the answer, except to say our present government was a ship of fools who never saw it coming.

Trump had a ton of media and television experience before he ran for office. He seems to have created an ideal situation for his approach to communication and governance.

He called out the media and opposition for their lies and selective reporting of the facts. The result is that he tells all kinds of lies, and isn’t held accountable for them by his voter base.

He makes outrageous statements, and promotes crazy policies. When he gets called out on something that goes wrong (separating the immigrant children) he changes his mind at the drop of a hat. Because his ideas are so awful, it’s not denounced as a flip flop the way it would be for every other politician, it’s more greeted with a sense of relief.

His gut instinct leads him to places that other politicians can’t and won’t go, alternately praising Trudeau, then trying to bury him. Negotiation, alliances, and consensus building have been largely replaced by naked bullying and aggression.

I can’t imagine that Trump can get away with his contempt of the media, isolationist economic policies, and alienation of other world leaders with any sort of medium or long term success. That said, he is more popular than you would expect, and whether you like his agenda or not he seems to be getting things done. That and his long running practice of over the top self promotion may carry him farther than I would like. Time will tell.

“Trump is willing to blow up critical and enduring relationships with key allies (an ally whose soldiers fought and died on the beaches of Normandy and in the hills of Afghanistan alongside US soldiers), …”

Beaches of Normandy – fight agains a common enemy: the Nazis. History to be proud of.

Hills of Afghanistan – fight along side the imperialistic endevours of the ‘new’ fascist state. History to be ashamed of.

Mentioning them together is … regrettable! Perhaps you’ve not done enough reading outside the ‘investment’ area.

Whether you love or hate Trump I think it’s fair to say that he plays fast and loose with the truth and facts. According to Washington Post’s Fact Checker analysis, Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims since becoming President. — Ryan Lewenza

By my calculations that’s on average 6 whoppers a day! Now just you watch: AB Boxster will blast me into kingdom come—simply for pointing out some basic math—and he won’t lay a finger on Ryan. :)

At least I don’t have Fake News Again to contend with anymore! Yay! :)

‘With friends like these’ indeed. Trump is doing tremendous damage. There is of course the hope he will not be re-elected & that whoever replaces him will mend relationships.

I read a headline that indicates our current government is willing to offer asylum to the DREAMer’s – immigrant youth in the USA who Trump is apparently willing to punt. Some 700,000 youth altogether. In this case, Trump’s ideology may work in Canada’s favor by mitigating the effects of our rapidly aging population.

===

I read a headline our current government’s ideology is able to create 700,000 jobs out of thin air to mitigate the affects of our rapidly growing population in the middle of trade war.

That’s on the top of the “rather than 20,000 people coming across the border illegally like we saw in 2017, we are going to see 60,000 illegal migrants”.

Another luck suck Nordic team bites the dust (stick to hockey, fishing, making cheap incomplete furnishings and thermal energy – and cars for Lefties that live in their own private habitat).
——————————————–

LOL! Still sore eh?

Although Germany was definitely the stronger team, the Swedes should’ve been awarded a penalty in the 1st half – why they didn’t utilize the VAR, I don’t understand.

Still, as a neutral, it was exciting to watch. I love players like Tony Kroos as he’s the type of player who steps up and wins games, as he did.

What do you call a government who advances an agenda in the House Of Commons in the form of an Act of Parliament that becomes law with a twist? I have before me the evidence that they never consulted the highest levels of academic excellence, or if they did simply ignored it all.

It’s uncomfortable for a lot of people admit, but immigration is necessary. The illegals coming across the border from the most prosperous country on earth is one thing, but allowing some previously vetted, educated, and youthful dreamers into Canada could be a positive.

Ritual clearing the daily bullshit fights and pettiness out of my mind and heart with the healing energy of music that lifts above it all, combined with the heavenly smoke of the sacred sage and sweetgrass.

Yesterday the Beast issued an Executive Order extending the State of National Emergency against North Korea for another year. He recently declared the nuclear threat from North Korea to be over by grandstanding it worldwide.

It doesn’t make any sense for Trudeau to be picking fights with our largest customer (by far-nobody else comes close to the USA)-Germany, France-the EU in general has done nothing for Canada unlike the USA-which supports our economy and standard of living greatly. Hopefully Trudeau is voted out next year and the relationship between the two countries can be mended.

I read a headline that indicates our current government is willing to offer asylum to the DREAMer’s – immigrant youth in the USA who Trump is apparently willing to punt. Some 700,000 youth altogether. In this case, Trump’s ideology may work in Canada’s favor by mitigating the effects of our rapidly aging population.

===

I read a headline our current government’s ideology is able to create 700,000 jobs out of thin air to mitigate the affects of our rapidly growing population in the middle of trade war.

In the application of proving Canada an open and free trader above criticism we have removed our ability to see our “Wayne Gretzky” moment in the Nafta challenge. Trump is merely a distraction and we are without a doubt not willing to do the “nasty” with Donald.

Personally CBC encourages Canadians to “buy Canadian” but if you use your Visa or Mastercard …are these not American financial transactions?

Personally, due to my lameness and arthritic boomer body I require Skechers shoes; roomy Ralph Lauren outfits; Laura Ashley linen and P.J.’s; Estee Lauder cosmetics; Cylestial tea; Starbucks coffee; and I don’t want to overburden Garth with too much personalization but I require only the best bourbon: Jack Daniels. Due to my inferm condition I should be allowed to patronize those purveyers of goods that keep me out of the hallways of southwestern Ontario hospitals.

China holds all the cards against USA in any tariff war, because just review the tariff list of over 1000 items against China issued by USA. I could not believe that China over the years had this much technical control with parts and sophisticated product.

Understand America: If Trump wants your trophy wife, you have to give him your trophy wife. The people of Japan in 1945, Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, Syria in the 2010s, and soon to be Moscow in 2019 will learned it the hard way.

What Canadians fail to realize is that they have a parasitic economy. Canada is in so much debt that on a per capita comparison they are in worse shape than America. Their economy is based on dinosaur products like lumber, milk, eggs, and other such goods that really will not stand the test of time into the future. Canada makes no high tech products of note. They cannot even manufacture their own fighter/interceptor aircraft and have to buy a bloated tech beast like the F-35. Canada is parasitic in the sense that they exist under the protection of America during and since the second World war. Canada is also at odds with America’s future. Canada is a Globalist test site while America is rekindling the fires of Nationalism and the existence of Nation States all across the world. Canada your free ride is over. Dust off those diplomacy skills and get your engineers back into the work rooms. Tear off their pink pussy hats and get serious about the future …… or be left behind. Trump spelled it out during the Presidential Campaign. It will be Nationalism not Globalism for the future of the globe. Take note.

Canadians may have fought on the Normandy beaches, but it was the Yanks who paid for that show, just as they are paying for our defence today. So I would not mention that idea in trade negotiations. Big bro might get even moodier.

Hey, Ryan. Any thoughts on rising U.S. interest rates decimating Emerging Markets due to higher U.S. dollar debt repayments? Are Turkey and Argentina the first casualties? Also, need more beard ribbing?

Actually, I think you and Doug get fewer comments because it’s Saturday and people want to go out and have fun instead of commenting. Don’t take it personally. It’s just pleasure.

Dear Ryan Trump’s listening too much to his military advisors. The Steele tariff is based on lack of US wartime capacity. Trump loathes Canada (and others) because – in his mind – Canada has not and does not contribute proportionally to the cost of North American defense. In both the Cold War and the War on Terror. The recent doings with North Korea also stem from defense and are about maintaining influence & control in the South China seas while keeping a rising star off-balance.

I believe a fall blown trade war is now likely since it (appears to me) it has always been Trump’s intention to shift the tax burden from corporation to consumer with tariffs. Here is a man who does not care about ordinary people. No matter which border they live in. He will be fine, dandy and Teddy Roosevelt. He has all the money he can spend in the rest of his life.

#33 Change Of Heart on 06.23.18 at 6:05 pm
Yesterday the Beast issued an Executive Order extending the State of National Emergency against North Korea for another year. He recently declared the nuclear threat from North Korea to be over by grandstanding it worldwide.
=====================================
The threat is over Trump,s red button is bigger than Kim’s.

Trump is a very unhappy being.
Just like the teenage bully I grew up with in my neighborhood….just slapping strangers on the street…for no reason. Reality was that this young boy had an alcoholic father who would beat up his children for no reason…..
Misery likes company and unhappy people want to make other people unhappy…..and so goes pathetic Trump.

Funny how the most outrageous President in our life time can offend people a few times a day……cries…..when others like Trudeau stands up to him…..and so goes Trump again trying to push his heavy weight around to scare the ordinary Canadian.

Trump has not stopped his campaign rhetoric…..it just keeps coming….a very dangerous habit….that many autocratic leaders have used before the second World War. Keep the base angry.

Using economic threats and people who suffered personal hurt as pawns……is a pathetic approach by a very hollow Trump.

I believe that company CEOs of more honorable enterprises will continue to foster a balance and support our honorable morals and politely speak out against a
” kidnapper” who for too long as a dishonest developer has broken the law and only because of clever lawyers has gotten away.
Also pure luck….which will run out.

Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims since becoming President.
=============================
The truth is extreme.
Lets call it like it is.
These are LIES.
Why does everyone want to soft pedal what are essentially lies.
When someone knowingly bends or presents a false narrative, it is a lie when done intentionally.
We know Trumps intentions by the sheer number of LIES presented.

The Beast spent all day there spewing utter nonsense to help a fellow Republican get re-elected, and the Smoking Man had no clue his STAR attraction was there all day long. I suppose he was by the pool drinking, looking at the young girls who want him not.

@#46 Sydneysider
“Canadians may have fought on the Normandy beaches, but it was the Yanks who paid for that show.”
++++
Well…..
If you really want to go there.

We should thank the Russians for slugging it out with Nazi Germany for 3 years before the Allies “stormed the beaches of Normandy”.
(Some Historians believe the Americans were worried Russia would replace Germany in Europe and invaded to ensure an American presence in a Communist Europe).
But I digress.
20 million dead Russians deserve our thanks for THEIR sacrifice bleeding Germany dry of soldiers, equipment and morale….
But History has a way of creating “heros” …… lets not forget Winston Churchill’s recommendation to Harry Truman after Churchill was informed the US had dropped a new “super weapon” on Japan……
“Bomb Moscow next.”

#34 Big Kahuna on 06.23.18 at 6:14 pm
“It doesn’t make any sense for Trudeau to be picking fights with our largest customer….”

That’s more revisionist history! Trump declared war—a trade war—on Canada. The EU, India, China, Mexico (and not just Canada) are all fighting back against the U.S.—the only nation in violation of trade agreements and treaties. Try to keep your eye on the ball! :)

Trudeau and his diverse, gender neutral, virtue-signaling band of incompetents are sabotaging NAFTA deliberately. They are destroying the Canadian economy with monstrous deficits and social engineering. Like all incompetent governments they will look for an external boogieman to deflect their failures. Trudeau is a puppet for Quebec. That is his only interest in NAFTA, protecting his votes and justifying the Transfer payment scheme that favours Quebec for over some $200 Billion. It`s just political theatre. Remember he said,`Quebecèrs are Better`. https://youtu.be/i8ZB97A3Wkw

We all know Trump is no intellectual, doesn’t read much so how does he know how to play Canada. Luck or instinct?
Auto Pact:signed 1965. One year after the Columbia River Treaty 1964. A Churchillian giveaway for Ontario auto jobs.
Softwood tariffs. 25 years ago, 70% applying to the B.C, interior wood only. Another Who Cares? We don’t decide or have any affect on federal elections out here.
The dairy quotas. Ya right, Quebec’s got all those.
Alberta oil fiasco.Prince Rupert is the 2nd or 3rd largest,deepest natural harbour in the world. And its a straight shot out of Dixon Entrance, saving a couple days steaming each way.
You can spin the big Panamax tankers 360 right in the harbour. Just look at a goddam map. No, bring the oil down the hypotenuse of the triangle right through the busiest harbour in the country with millions of people. Besides which you can only bring in the little tankers.
Lil potato doesn’t even try to fix the equalization program. Just a straight screw the west for Quebec & Maritime votes last week.

The ROC better do a double check if you think that the whole of Canada is going to unite against the U.S.. We westerners took the brunt of the hit in the wars in Europe (conscription riots)&then the trade deals with the Yanks. You better figure how your gonna bring the west onside before you take on the Yanks. There’s lotsa Canuckleheads like me that love seeing the Trumpster rattle Eastern Canadians chain. Brad Wall just said he’s never seen such western alienation.
The Trumpster operates on instinct learned up against New Jersey-New York R/E developers & hustling chumps at golf while in college. You easterners pick the Moron to lead you into battle. I’m going with the slime ball.

Tariffs are a side show, the main stage has Robo, Nano, AI, IOT, Bio disrupting the status quo.

The factories of the future will be in the US, this is about owning the future, Canada’s GDP contraction will be bigly in 2019, 2020. Ontario bond rates face a down grade with an Auto Tariff increase, employment participation heading down to mid 50’s next decade.

No question about it, Russia paid a very high price for victory over Nazi Germany.

But remember at the beginning of ww2 (and ww1) when Britain declared war on Germany, Canada automatically went to war as well. That’s something the Americans can’t say. They did support the ally war effort through equipment and finance though.

**Anyways, to the poster who disrespected our military by calling Afghanistan some “imperialist conquest”, our boys rose to the call of duty and some paid with their lives. You can disagree with the mission but the loss of life’s is just as tragic and the sacrifice just as heavy.

I’ve always liked the expression “If all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail”, and I think this is entirely appropriate with Trump’s approach to dealing with US trade deficits.

the ten second sound bite makes everything look like a nail. Donald Trump didn’t invent it. You have examined the facts and they show that the US Canada trade is fair. In fact, this relationship should be the model for the others.

There’s a war going on right now. Between Donald Trump and CNN. The war makes it very difficult to go deeper than the the ten second sound bite. It’s not in Canada’s interest.

We should thank the Russians for slugging it out with Nazi Germany for 3 years before the Allies “stormed the beaches of Normandy”.

Hmm, I believe WWII started due to the signing of the Molotov–Ribbentrop pact between Germany and the USSR, after which both countries invaded Poland in September 1939. Good luck getting Poles to thank Stalin for that.

#25 Gravy Train on 06.23.18 at 4:21 pm
By my calculations that’s on average 6 whoppers a day! Now just you watch: AB Boxster will blast me into kingdom come—simply for pointing out some basic math—and he won’t lay a finger on Ryan. :)

———————–
Now why would I want to blast your math figures?
Nothing there that I would disagree with.

Other than Ryan quoting the Washington Post as an accurate source of any information, this is a little rich.
The Washington Post is adamantly anti-Trump.
This once great news outlet is little better than CNN, sadly.

However, as I mentioned before about Trump.
Watch his feet.

The left media, and most other Trump deranged spend far to much time questioning what he says or how he says it. They go nuts over his tweets, and his off hand comments.
His base mostly laughs at their ridiculous responses. The base just cares what he actually does.

It is a style that is totally foreign to the media as most politicians spend most of their times saying nothing at all, never put forward any policy decision at all or taking a stand on anything, or speak such double talk that no one has any idea of what the hell position they have at any point in time.
And they change at a whim anyway, mostly due to political or personal gain, caring nothing for the citizens or people the promise to work for.

Obama was able to wax poetically about ‘yes we can’ and ‘social justice’ and a ‘better America’, in wonderful speeches. He is a master orator. I believed in what he said, mostly because of the way he said it.

But in the end he did mostly nothing.
Nothing to make the lives of black or latino americans better. Nothing to solve inner city poverty or crime.
Nothing to address Syria or ISIS.
He bailed out Wall Street and failed main street.
His presidency was a massive waste of 8 years.

So stop paying so much attention to what Trump says. (or what his wife wears) and pay more attention to what his administration does.

And, if you were to judge Trump solely on what he has done so far, and ignore everything he has said, you will see why he is so popular with his base.

So while most Trump haters continue to blow up over his comments, and the media decides to spend 20 TV days on an 15 year old prostitute story, the Trump administration just keeps on ‘doing’ things that are totally designed to make America a better place for Americans to live.

Whether all his actions will achieve these goals.. well we’ll see.

But again, I would far rather have a Trump who actually gets things done for the people of his country, than a Trudeau, who talks about gender equality, and fairness for the middle class, and the great joys and benefits of illegal immigration, and that ‘diversity makes us stronger’ , blah blah blah, yet who has done absolutely ‘nothing, nada, nyet’ to make Canada a stronger more competitive, efficient and unified nation.

In fact all T2 has done is sow seeds of national , regional and provincial discontent and disunity, and created class and gender discord.

#148 Steven Rowlandson on 06.23.18 at 9:33 pm
Before their fall from grace and or assassination Churchill and General Patton spoke the truth and declared that we had killed the wrong pig referring to Nazi Germany. Hind sight is often 20/20. So who was the real enemy? Those who trigger wars, do terrorist attacks, practice genocide and blame others, finance wars and are the leaders and financiers of revolutions. Who do you suppose this could be? Think hard. I’ll give you a hint. It isn’t me..
—–
Pang one.
Stalin went on to kiil another 30 million.
Mao who knows how many.
Pol Pot about a million.
War, what it is good for?

The Americans have long complained about something called “transshipment.” That is the practice of Chinese steel being shipped to a country, such as Canada, and then re-exported, sometimes with little to no change in the product, to the United States.
The Americans asked us to stop [this] in April 2017 and we didn’t.
Why wouldn’t we have stopped this?
It’s not like allowing it to keep going was about protecting Canadian steelworkers, it protects Chinese steelworkers.http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-feds-could-have-avoided-u-s-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum

If T2 was a 1/2 a man. He would be doing pool parties with Trump. He would send the UN an invoice for the work Canadian trees do. Our great trees eat 11 times the CO2 Canada makes. Every other country is getting free ride from Canadian Trees.

Nope this girly boy wants to tax Canadians and send the money to the UN. An institution of Jew hating useless test sucking elite idiots.

Seriously….you want to let Trudeau wrap himself in the flag if our fallen heroes? The same Trudeau who spits on the idea that Canada is a country…..and recently made a speech defining national pride for Canada as a crime against globalism? Trump is right calling Trudeau and his sleazy band out for the creeps and malcontents they are. This is the time to push Trudeau’s face into the mud….not raise him on our shoulders undeservedley. Puppet Trudeau is doing everything he can to screw Canada on behalf of outside influences. Let’s band together and turf these traitors.

Me First Trump is going to get manufacturing jobs to migrate from Canada to the US. There is no question in my mind this is going to happen. Canada, on its own, can’t win a war with the US. The best we can do is to find new markets for our manufactured goods and, if I had my way, build nuclear weapons with hypersonic delivery systems (there is a plan in my madness).

Surprising, I conclude Canada’s best course while Me First Trump wages his trade wars is NOT retaliate with our own tariffs on American goods. I would go one step further and drop any tariffs currently in place – goodbye supply management but then the Feds could directly apply equalization payments to agriculture. There is no doubt this is a wedge issue with our southern neighbours.

Make no mistake, Canada is in for pain and the sooner our feckless leaders recognize it, the better. Revenge is best served with time through unexpected consequences. My preference is less Government services rather than more tax. Guns or butter, eh?

The fact is that the Liberals have been empowered to act on our behalf. Their job is to transact with foreign powers and get the job done as fairly and equitably as practicable.

The Liberals had a very good introduction to the general character and personality of Mr. Trump before he came into office as did the rest of the world.

It’s true that T2 reiterated the same talking points in his closing speech at the Charlevoix G-7 meetings. Nevertheless, IMHO, you don’t deliver them AGAIN, avec un petit soup?on de swagger, in the absence of the highest profile participant who left the schoolyard early.

Not cool.

The results were entirely predictable and the perilous fallout is now squarely in the laps of all Canadians.

I don’t think that Mr. Trump has much respect for T2 at all and probably because of that, T2’s words were even more irritating to the US president.

#61 Flat
Many like to say tariffs will raise prices. It doesn’t most of the time. It determines who you buy the goods from.
Like steel, because of the tariff Canada places on US steel you buy your steel from China. This helps to destroy our steel industry, our defense capabilities, our jobs and our middle class. Same with every thing else.
Read the comment from #71 AB Boxster. He’s right on.

You all need to read this and then comment sensibly. Trump did not write this himself, not sure he could write that well either. This is the work of well educated government employees whose job is not politics but to research and report.

#77 Oft: Your narrative might have merit based on the evidence. There are two sections of punishment for such a crime which I looked up the other day. Automatic lifetime in prison or 14 years maximum. Does such evidence exist? In one specific area yes, because such indeed exists.

Because you still don’t have the slightest clue that the rapid growth refers to #13 Linda’s suggestion that “our current government is willing to offer asylum to the DREAMer’s… Some 700,000 youth altogether.”

Let me spell it out: adding to Canada’s population 700,000 from the US by inviting the DACA participants, plus the estimated 60,000 arriving crossing the borders illegally on top of the usual immigration quota would be the “rapid growth of population”.

The irony was how the government was planning to supply close to 1 million “new Canadians” with jobs at the time of trade war.

Garth your blog is getting polluted by ‘Old Man’ posting 20 times a day and each one with a different handle.

#4 The Mask Removed on 06.23.18 at 2:30 pm
#28 Federal Government on 06.23.18 at 4:59 pm
#33 Change Of Heart on 06.23.18 at 6:05 pm
#38 China Holds A Royal Flush on 06.23.18 at 6:44 pm
#55 Vegas on 06.23.18 at 9:25 pm

I am sure I probably missed a few but I hope you get the point. Many people come here to get different viewpoints from across the country. If ‘Old Man’ wants to post 20 times a day then at least make him use the same handle so we know which posts to scroll through.

Today is June 24th and at 2:00 PM in Toronto the big parade begins at Church and Bloor. I see no indication that Mr. Dress Up will be marching this year. Will he be a no show? Does nobody want to march with him anymore? Is he staying away for a reason? His fans will be heart broken if he doesn’t make an appearance this year. The Drag Queens will miss him dearly, so let us be watchful and see what happens today.

I commend to skeptical Canadians the comments in a recent London interview of the greatest foreign minister of any Great Power in the 20th century, Henry Kissinger. He said that President Trump “is a phenomenon that foreign countries haven’t seen before … Liberals and all those who favour (Hillary) Clinton will never admit that he is … a true leader … After eight years of tyranny (of declinists and willful fantasy), … every country now has to consider two things:

One, their perception that the previous president, or the outgoing president, basically withdrew America from international politics, so that they had to make their own assessments of their necessities.

And secondly, that there is a new president who’s asking a lot of unfamiliar questions. And because of the combination of the partial vacuum and the new questions, one could imagine that something remarkable and new emerges out of it … Trump puts America and its people first …

Trump is right-Trudeau is bad for Canada and is not looking out for Canada-TPP, Paris accord, etc.etc. Europe has done basically nothing for Canada unlike the USA and Trudeau spits in the face of our largest customer? Pathetic.

Totally agree. Considering that for the last two years we have had a prime minister that proved to be to the business climate of this country what the biblical plagues were to ancient Egypt readers of this blog spend way too much time berating an elected leader of another country.
Justin Trudeau, in the speech he gave at G7 after Trump boarded his plane, tried to posture his way out of the embarrassment of the India trip one too many times and was caught doing it. All Canadians will pay the price for JT’s careless words. His apologists have been saying that he did not say anything that wasn’t said before. Sure, but in politics it is all about timing.

#81 Gravy Train on 06.24.18 at 7:28 am
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and The Wall Street Journal have both said that Trump’s trade policies threaten millions of U.S. jobs.

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And once again the miss the entire point of my comment.

Obama ‘said’ he was going to do wonderful things.
Trudeau made all kinds of ridiculous promises.

The results were and are pathetic.

When the US was embarking on trade agreements in the 1990s under Clinton, (GAAT) all the brilliant government agencies ‘said’ it was going to be a great thing for the USA to send all its manufacturing to Asia.
How could it go wrong?

Uh huh. Worked out great for the Chinese.
Not so much for the Americans.

All of the media and political pundits laughed at any suggestion that Trump made, that the FBI could possibly be biased against any political candidate or that his campaign was ‘wiretapped’ by the FBI.

Well guess what Einstein.
It’s been pretty much verified that this was exactly the case.Eight senior FBI operatives, working at high levels, are under investigation now into exactly this issue. Many have been fired from the FBI already.

And not a single piece of evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia.
Go figure. All the left media and Trump haters believed all the nonsense.
The results, show that it was all BS.

Again my point is this.

What are the actual results of policies.
Many agencies, pundits and media outlets (left and right- but mostly left) said that Trumps winning would cause massive stock market losses, recession, nuclear war, blah, blah , blah.

How are those predictions working out so far?

As long as Trump’s policies bear fruit and benefit the American worker and economy, why do you keep focusing on what the idiot pundits in the media predict – right or left.

Bizarrely, you now see those in the mainstream media hoping for huge recessions in the US, or to have his children abused, because they are so deranged over him. The left is now taking its direction from such metal giants as Robert DeNiro.
Yeah, keep that up. It’s sure to be a winning strategy.

As long as you continue to Trump-hate, because of what he says, or because you believe in the leftist media BS, then you are a stupid as the fools on the right who believed that Obama was a communist sympathizer.

“Many like to say tariffs will raise prices. It doesn’t most of the time. It determines who you buy the goods from. Like steel, because of the tariff Canada places on US steel you buy your steel from China.”

Sorry Bob but you’re wrong on many fronts. First, and most importantly, those Canadian tariffs just do not exist. Those numbers do not come from the Office of the US Trade Representative as you cited. Rather they came from a pro Trump supporter who tweeted these made-up stats and which has been picked up by other Trump supporters and some media. This is classic misinformation and lies which is exactly what I tried to point out in the blog post. A quick search on the author, Charlie Kirk, and you’ll see he’s just a whack job Trump surrogate. This article says it all about this individual and those erroneous statistics.https://globalnews.ca/news/4291438/rob-breakenridge-canada-is-not-trade-villain/

And on your other point about how tariffs don’t result in higher prices. There is little economic theory or history that supports this claim. A new tariff automatically results in a higher price for the product and it depends on whether the tariff is passed on to the consumer or is realized by the producer through lower margins and profits. Finally, the bigger point is that we’re not just seeing a one off tariff. We’re seeing a tit for tat tariff war that if Trump continues WILL lead to higher inflation and lower growth. So a few thousands jobs he creates in the steal industry will be more than offset by the thousands of jobs he losses from the trade war. – Ryan L

I don’t hold much respect for the Washington Post. Show me a politician who doesn’t exaggerate when it will suit their argument. I wish a reputable agency in Canada would fact check Justin Trudeau’s statements, alas but sadly there are no reputable agencies left in Canukistan to do the task properly. But this is all part of the negotiation. For years Canada especially under Pierre E Trudeau has cut back on defense spending in the belief that the USA would protect North America. Now Trump is telling his NATO partners to belly up to the bar and pay their fair share. He is also doing the same with trade. It may not be the best way to achieve an end, but it’s the way that Trump knows and has used before in his real estate deals. Just because it isn’t the way things have always been done in diplomatic circles doesn’t make it wrong. Remember IF you always do what you have always done, then you will always get what you always got”. NAFTA was due for some adjustments. BUT previous gov’ts did nothing about it. Now that Trump is doing something about it, all the world is upset. Well maybe it needs to be upset. Maybe the NEW WORLD ORDER that the progressives and leftist are striving for is going to get UPSET. If so then I for one say YES!!!

You all need to read this and then comment sensibly. Trump did not write this himself, not sure he could write that well either. This is the work of well educated government employees whose job is not politics but to research and report.

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Interesting post and that other thingy…

But ill tell you why what trump does wont work, for years when we would travel to mickey mouse concentration camp, driving thru NC i always wonder why would they have “First in Fight”, years after years, no worg of the lie, until one day i took a closer look and realized that actually says “First in Flight”. what brings me to Wright Bros.

They were first in flight according to kommi issued history books, that i learned from, yes there was mention of Ikarus before them, but what my point is, that trupm is doing exactly what W. bros and fail. They sued everyone for patent infringements until they runned out of money and in a meantime all those other companies had evolved to the point that eng. departments could come up with their own concepts and work on it.

This small city with a bad reputation, and real estate from the 1950’s that is poor investment quality has a new first. The community college located there is offering courses in marijuana production techniques for the new industry – shame on them.

Ryan your whole argument is useless. It’s not about deficits of surpluses (although they might indicate something is wrong), it is about market access and opportunity.

Fact is Canada and Europe have far too many restrictions, both with tarifs and regulations. With the world economy becoming more and more integrated those antique rules are becoming more and more inappropriate and offensive to Americans who have a much freer market. The Americans have had it with it and IMHO this is only the beginning.

Blame Trump as much as you want but this issue is not going away.

Canada needs to become a freer market if it hopes to to keep its access to the biggest economy in the world.

Obama never gets credit from Trump and his supporters for taking over during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and leaving the economy in relatively good shape (with an unemployment rate down a full 3 percentage points, from 7.8% to 4.8%). Trump inherited a good economy that has continued to improve under his presidency. That’s it. He’s like that guy who comes in at the end of a project and takes all the credit for it.

Ryan,
I stand corrected on the tariff numbers. I absolutely hate the fact that nothing you read can be believed. Both sides are guilty.
What stands true though is the fact that since NAFTA the US has lost over 55,000 factories and over 400,000 middle class paying jobs.
We voted for Trump because something has to change before we’re all in the poorhouse.

You elect a drama teacher to run the country and negotiate trade agreements and it is Trump’s fault Canada gets screwed? Liberal voters need to look in the mirror to see who is at fault. Trudeau and his politically correct cabinet are way over their head. You got what you voted for.

“So a few thousands jobs he creates in the steal industry will be more than offset by the thousands of jobs he losses from the trade war. – Ryan L”
————————————————————
“Steal” industry? What do banks have to do with this?

Today T2 will be at two family – friendly events just west of Montreal because its the St. Jean Baptist Day holiday. His fans in Toronto will be disappointed, and while in Montreal he was challenged by a citizen that was not very happy with him.

It’s a new day. Trump is going to create Fortress America, possibly create a stronger domestic economy while doing what he loves best– create chaos and confusion. He gets off on it.

This isn’t Trump alone. It was part of the game plan to trash existing trade agreements before he came to office.

I predict, if the republicans don’t get creamed in the midterms you can count on a quasi-fundamentalist Christian theocracy a few years down the road, in the States.

I have had grave misgivings about the pipeline through B.C. But I also feel that we need tax dollars for social programs and we can’t rely on the U.S as our sole source of revenue from oil.

What a cartoon f’g country it’s become. And good luck anybody trying to impeach the goof in charge. He has a huge number of committed followers — the dispossessed
Who need jobs, and they are all armed.

Here are the straight goods on what Herr Trump is all about by the great Noam Chomsky… Trump is a media side show distraction for the elite while they gut the social fabric of the USA and solidify their power.

Great post Ryan. Some facts and numbers are accurate others are questionable including your sources. However, all this analysis and fact checking does not matter now. The U.S. Department of Commerce will have their report ready for Trump in July and before the end of the summer the auto tariffs WILL be applied all across the board for everyone including Canada. Canada will lose it’s auto and auto parts industry slowly at first then all of a sudden at contract renewal times. There is no stopping this now. We have to get ready for a drastically changing economic and trading landscape. Nothing will be the same going forward. The tsunami heading Canada’s way is going to be huge. This is a done deal.

The problem here is with parts because of global integration. These parts for any car can come from several countries, and if time delayed, can actually shut down the assembly line which has happened. What would happen if parts never arrived, and there was no surplus stored nearby? The auto manufacturing of today on the line, has changed over the years.

A fire took place at Meridan Magnesium products in Michigan on May 2, 2018 providing parts. This shut down Ford, GM, Fiat, BMW, and Chrysler due to a part shortage. This downtime even hit Windsor with the Chrysler Pacific minivan made in Ontario. Its a chain that on occasion causes downtime on the line.

#108 BobC on 06.24.18 at 12:38 pm
Ryan,
I stand corrected on the tariff numbers. I absolutely hate the fact that nothing you read can be believed. Both sides are guilty.
What stands true though is the fact that since NAFTA the US has lost over 55,000 factories and over 400,000 middle class paying jobs.
We voted for Trump because something has to change before we’re all in the poorhouse.

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Lost jobs? What? Last I heard, the U.S. unemployment rate is at a record low. Buddy, think this through and use your brain. Jobs are lost and gained continously.

Brain. Please use it and stop repeating patsy comments please. That might get you out of the poorhouse instead.

Ryan, all you need to understand is this: In today’s world Canada cannot keep its standard of living if isolated from its main and only natural economic partner.

For the interest of the vast majority of Canadians we need a common market with the US with as little restrictions as possible, including restrictions on foreign ownership. A lot of sacred cows need to be taken down.

Otherwise we collectively get poorer, so far unfortunately it seems the most likely outcome.

Does the trade war mean Magna will hit 100 dollars a share Canadian? As we’ve seen Magna’s stock has been pumped like all the fang stocks because everyone knows Frank. We know Magna is not worth one-tenth of what it trades at today.

Why are there no political leaders calling him on his lies?
Call him on his grandiose, fantastical statements
If our leaders stand by while he is allowed to make statements which are out right lies, we all suffer.

We need a leader with some backbone who is not afraid to put him in his place.

The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.