Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sportsreported that the Dodgers have agreed to trade Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

Surprised? So is basically everybody else.

The Miami Marlins’ shocking midseason rebuild continued with a blockbuster trade after 2 a.m. ET Wednesday: They sent mercurial star Hanley Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate to the Dodgers for young pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough, according to major-league sources.

The trade will have lasting ramifications for the entire National League. The Dodgers, 2 1/2 games behind the archrival Giants in the West, made clear their intent to reach the postseason in their first year under new ownership. The trade amounted to a show of financial might for the Dodgers; Ramirez, 28, is earning $15 million this season, and no cash was included in the deal.

As a 22-year-old in 2006, Hanley won the National League Rookie Of The Year Award with an .833 OPS. In the three seasons following that, he posted a line of .325/.398/.549/.947 as a shortstop, deservingly attaining superstar billing. Starting in 2010 though, he saw his production decline and controversy over his hustle erupt. While he posted a still elite .853 OPS at the SS position, he was no longer one of the best hitters in the league.

Suffering from a shoulder injury and general ineffectiveness in 2011, he missed half the year and performed woefully below his standards when he was healthy. That trend continues into 2012, as he has now posted a .245/.328/.405/.732 line in his last 184 games. Making matters worse, he recently has been suffering from an infected hand … basically because he forgot to take medication for it.

With a bat that puts him around league average as a hitter, he would still be quite valuable at both SS and 3B if he could field his position. Unfortunately, using any metric you want, Hanley is not an average defender. For his career at shortstop, he averages -12.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -9.1 runs via UZR, and -11.8 runs via FRAA. In other words, he’s a bad defender there. In 2012, he moved to 3B but hasn’t shown to be any better there. He’s on pace for -17.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -11.2 runs via UZR, and -22.7 runs via FRAA at the hot corner. To be kind about it, he’s a mediocre defender no matter where he has played.

As I said though, he’ll be an improvement for the Dodgers at either position almost no matter what:

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

Then there’s the issue of his contract. The Dodgers are paying him ~$40 million for two years and two months of his service, which puts ~7.5 WAR as the target where the Dodgers can get fair value just for what they have to pay him. At his peak, this would be a complete no-brainer, as he could put up a 7.5 WAR season in a single year; he was that great of a hitter. Now though? He’s amassed a little over ~2 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. Performing at levels similar to this, he’s a 2-3 WAR player, which would make the trade a poor deal for the Dodgers.

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Hanley is still an elite talent though, and the Dodgers took a risk in a market where elite talents are almost impossible to acquire without dropping a 10-year contract on them.

While nagging injuries is just one of the many explanations I’ve heard for Hanley’s decline, luck can also have an effect. Ramirez never posted a BABIP below .327 prior to 2011, but then posted a .275 BABIP in 2011 and has a .271 BABIP this year. It doesn’t explain away all of his poor performance, but even regression back to .310 or so would make him a well above average player again, so there’s reason to think that Ned Colletti bought low here (yes, you read that correctly).

Furthermore, in the context of the Dodgers current roster and farm system at SS and 3B, the team clearly can’t fill those positions internally, so Hanley being average there is worth more to the Dodgers than it might be to others. This is especially true due to the almost non-existent free agent market at those positions in the coming years.

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The Dodgers made this trade with the expectation that Hanley would do a lot more than he currently is, and he’ll have to be better just to make the trade fair for both sides. The Dodgers are banking that he can regain his old form with a change of scenery, a change of coaching staff, and perhaps a refreshed attitude. It’s far from impossible for him, as finding just one of those things can do wonders for a player.

Just ask Matt Kemp.

Randy Choate

Choate is a lefty reliever making $1.5 million this year and he will be a free agent at the end of 2012. He’s pitching well thus far, posting a 2.49 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, and 2.68 SIERA. More importantly though, he’s dominating lefties to the tune of a .150/.200/.183/.383 line. It’s no fluke either, as lefties have hit .203/.277/.285/.562 off Choate over his career.

Is he an impact player? No, but he fills a need that the Dodgers have been seeking out since the start of Spring Training. Scott Elbert has been effective as the bullpen’s only lefty, but lefties have a .325 wOBA off him compared to a .251 wOBA for righties. That creates a problem for the Dodgers when they need a matchup lefty late in the game, and Choate fills that role for the team perfectly.

Nate Eovaldi

Over his 91 innings in the MLB, he has posted a 3.96 ERA and 4.18 FIP. As a player that can contribute to the Marlins immediately, he can already be seen as a ~2 WAR type of pitcher. Given that he has about five years of team control left after 2012, there’s no doubt he’s a valuable commodity.

As far as upside goes, I don’t think he’s done anything to acquit himself of the #3 label I gave him back in March, as he’s still fastball dominant with lagging off-speed pitches. However, he’s a productive, cheap player that’s one adjustment away from approaching his ceiling.

Despite his value, the Dodgers trading an arm like him makes sense:

From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece.

The surplus of arms in the system made him expendable if the Dodgers could get a quality return … and they did.

Scott McGough

I wrote about him back in February and nothing has changed since then, in my opinion.

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he’s on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97, although there is some effort in his delivery. His command and control is no better than average, and his ultimate role as either a late-inning reliever or just another bullpen piece will come down to the development of his slider. He’ll flash a plus one with heavy break, but it’s a rarity, as he has a tendency to overthrow the pitch and has trouble keeping it in the strike zone.

I think McGough can contribute for the Marlins in the bullpen with some development, but I don’t see him as an elite arm that would fit as a closer or such. Therefore, I don’t mind his inclusion in the deal.

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At the current level of production for all the players involved, the Dodgers are paying around $40 million for about 6 WAR and are trading 8-10 WAR (Eovaldi) or more plus potentially six years of a solid reliever (McGough) to the Marlins. That reality is why the trade is a significant risk on the part of the Dodgers.

Even taking that into consideration though, the temptation of Hanley’s upside chart is what makes this deal. It represents what could happen if Hanley does round back into form (~15 WAR), and it’s significant because the Dodgers will then have managed to pick up a rare elite talent in a market that’s a bit bare at the moment.

So with money to burn and the Dodgers having no internal answers, the gamble seems to be worth taking.

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

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For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

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Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

This was an interesting week in the minors. The Isotopes actually looked like they were playing in the Pacific Coast League, scoring 45 runs in seven games (6.4 runs per game) while giving up 57 runs (8.1). Despite that, they were still be better than .500 this week. Of course, they got a little help from Matt Kemp and Juan Rivera in Sunday’s game.

The Quakes only scored 16 runs on the week, and that’s not a typo. The Lookouts gave up the fewest runs with 27. That pitching staff, despite the promotions, is really stepping up.

The Loons should get a boost this week from new additions Angelo Songco and Ralston Cash, both of whom made their season debuts Monday.

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Albuquerque Isotopes (4-3)

Runs Scored: 45
Runs Allowed: 57

Player Of The Week

Brian Cavazos-Galvez – OF

Despite struggling mightily in Double-A, Cavazos-Galvez, local to New Mexico, is flourishing with the Isotopes. He went 11-for-24 (.458) with a home run, seven RBI, three doubles, a triple, and six runs scored. I wouldn’t get too terribly excited; Cavazos-Galvez has done well in the hitter’s league and has struggled in the pitcher’s league this season.

Pitcher Of The Week

John Ely – RHP

Can there really be a Pitcher Of The Week when the staff allowed 57 runs in seven games? Sure. This week, it’s Ely. Elymania posted a great line this week: 14 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 13 K. This is his second POTW honor, and it’s really surprising to see such a good performance from him in a week the team allowed so many runs. In fact, if you take away Ely’s three runs allowed, the rest of the Isotopes staff allowed 54 runs. That’s … ugly.

After a rough start to the season, Ely has put up some great numbers in an extreme hitter’s league: 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 4.33 BB/K and a 1.85 groundout to flyout rate. He wouldn’t be nearly this good in the majors, but it’s nice to see him pitching well in case the Dodgers need an emergency starter later this season.

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Chattanooga Lookouts (4-2)

Runs Scored: 31
Runs Allowed: 27

Player Of The Week

Pedro Baez – 3B

Nick Buss pushed hard for this award, but Baez gets the nod this week. He went 8-for-20 (.400) with two home runs, six RBI, a double, and, most encouraging, five walks (against three strikeouts). I have long since given up on Baez being any kind of contributor for the Dodgers, but the talent is there, as his defensive ability at third base has never been questioned. His bat, however, hasn’t lived up to the potential. While he’s hitting just .259, he does have a .360 on-base percentage and is improving his pop a little bit.

Pitcher Of The Week

Ethan Martin – RHP

Martin’s resurgence continues, as he had a good start and a mediocre start this week: 11 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 6 BB, 12 K. The walk total was a bit high this week, but it’s still pretty good by Martin’s standards. He’s holding opposing hitters to a .190 batting average and has given up just three home runs this season.

With Nate Eovaldi‘s promotion to Los Angeles (for now), Martin is vying with Matt Magill for the role of Chattanooga‘s ace — something I bet no one was expecting coming into the season (on both accounts).

The Southern League, however, doesn’t agree with my pick as Magill was named league’s Pitcher of the Week (for the second time this season) on Tuesday. He had a fantastic outing on Thursday: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K. Seems I should have gone with him instead of Martin, but I’m standing by my choice.

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Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (2-4)

Runs Scored: 16
Runs Allowed: 31

Player Of The Week

Austin Gallagher – 1B/DH

This was slim pickins, as the Quakes scored an unimpressive 16 runs in six games this week. Gallagher was the best of the bunch, going 7-for-22 (.318) with two doubles, two RBI, three walks, and a run scored. Like I said, slim. Gallagher, who earns his second POTW award, is still hitting with some pop, posting a .483 slugging percentage on the season. However, I’d like to see his .264 average come up substantially.

Pitcher Of The Week

Angel Sanchez – RHP

Wasn’t much to get excited about this week on the hill for the Quakes. Chris Reed made his return and Scott McGough was solid out of the bullpen, but Angel Sanchez had one of his best starts of the season, earning him this week’s honor: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. Sanchez has been a bit up and down this season, but hopefully this outing gets him going. He’s issued just two walks in his last 27 2/3 innings. Like Gallagher, this is Sanchez’s second POTW award.

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Great Lakes Loons (3-3)

Runs Scored: 33
Runs Allowed: 39

Player Of The Week

James Baldwin – CF

Baldwin just edges out O’Koyea Dickson for the honor this week. It would have been Dickson’s third consecutive award, but instead, this is Baldwin’s second award this season. He went 9-for-24 (.375) with two doubles, two RBI, two walks, and seven stolen bases. Baldwin did most of his damage on May 21st, going 5-for-5 on the day.

Despite the solid week, he’s struggled mightily this season. His power has completely disappeared (six doubles, no triples or home runs) and he’s still striking out far too much (35.2 percent). His potential and talent is unquestioned; the ability to harness said potential is what’s in question.

Pitcher Of The Week

Yimi Garcia – RHP

As you can probably tell from the 39 runs allowed in six games, it wasn’t a great week on the hill for the Loons. So, this award is going to the Loons’ closer this week. Garcia was decent but not great this week: 3 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 saves. Garcia is more than holding his own as a 21-year-old in Low-A (1.93 ERA, 12.5 K/9) and should get the call to Rancho Cucamonga soon.

His 2.40 ERA is being a bit kind, but he certainly had the breakout season people like me were waiting for. He posted a 3.23 FIP with a K% of 20.4 (Average=20.7%) and a BB% of 7.3 (Average=8.6%). His peripherals still need work, but he was among the youngest to play in the Midwest League, so it was certainly a noteworthy performance.

Watching him pitch since he was drafted, he always appeared to be victim of horrid umpiring and defense, so I was always higher on him than his statistics indicated, but this was a surprise nevertheless. His fastball now sits in the low-90s, but his sharp curve will always be his out-pitch. Despite reports, this was the first year I have seen him try to use a third pitch (change) and it wasn’t that bad. His control didn’t improve much, but his command in the zone did, inducing more ground balls than before.

He’ll probably see high-A in 2012 and could be pushed to AA if he thrives.

While this wasn’t a bad professional debut by any means, he’s the same age as Gould and had a worse season statistically, so he didn’t exactly set the world on fire like some predicted.

He carried a 3.47 ERA and a 3.68 FIP over 109 innings with a 19.4 K% and a 6.8 BB%. The most disappointing part about his year was the lack of missed bats, but his command and polish were immediately apparent.

Lee shows command, confidence, a fastball with solid movement, and two good off-speed pitches. However, his fastball velocity leaves me short of anointing him. He still generally sits in the low-90s and unless that takes an uptick, I’m just not seeing this #1 starter potential people keep talking about. I know that sounds negative, but I get e-mails penciling Lee in as the #2 starter behind Kershaw in 2014 like it’s his god given right and I just don’t have that level of confidence in him.

I like Lee plenty, I’m just not willing to crown him because he might be the best prospect the Dodgers have.

Serving as the primary closer for the Loons, McGough struck out 25 in 20.1 innings while walking only 6 batters en route to a 2.21 ERA (2.27 FIP).

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

He split time between A and A+, but was basically the same at both levels. Overall, he posted a 3.69 ERA with an impressive 3.19 FIP due to his 24.7 K% and 6.5 BB%.

While that’s all well and good, the problem is that he’s 24 and in A-ball. He doesn’t just need to do well next year in AA, he needs to destroy it. Maybe he’s a late bloomer, but I don’t know many impact pitchers who were in A-ball at 24. Just saying.

Acquired in what I still maintain was a pointless trade that sent Trayvon Robinson away, Rodriguez shows raw promise on the mound. He posted a 5.19 ERA with the Red Sox before coming over and putting up a 1.59 ERA for the Dodgers, but nothing truly changed. He had a 2.91 FIP with the Red Sox and a 2.96 FIP with the Dodgers on the strength of an unreal 31.9 K% and a wild 12.4 BB%.

He throws the ball hard, regularly in the mid-90s, but his frisbee slider could use depth, consistency, and command. Rodriguez obviously has the stuff to succeed, but he’s extremely raw for his age and will need time. I’m not sure he will ever develop better command unless he makes changes to his motion, which is violent and wild. Additionally, he has an easy tell on what type of pitch is coming.

Making his professional debut at age 21, Sanchez proved worth the wait, posting a 2.82 ERA and 3.43 FIP in 99 innings primarily as a starter. He struck out 20.3% of batters and walked 9.4%, both of which were below league average.

Statistically, there were hiccups, but his stuff is legit. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he can touch high-90s, while he has two potential plus off-speed pitches in his curve and change. He still has a ways to go refining everything, but it was an impressive debut. However, I would advise against letting the surprise aspect of his debut lead to overrating him.

He should be in high-A in 2012, though I would probably keep him there for the year as he develops and adapts.

He started with the Loons, posting a 0.00 ERA and -0.40 (yes, really) FIP, which consisted of a 58.9 K% and 7.1 BB%. That’s just stupid. He then moved on to the Quakes in A+, where he posted a 0.93 ERA with a 1.96 FIP. His K% was 47.2 and his BB% was 8.3, so you can see how he was already on his way to mediocrity. Then he moved on to the Lookouts in AA, where he posted a 1.62 ERA and a 2.16 FIP. His 29.8 K% and 6.1 BB% were both way better than league average.

His fastball is average, clocking in the low-90s, but his high-80s cutter is all he has needed. It has late, sharp break and he commands it well, making the offering devastating to just about everybody. Moreover, he throws it against his body, hiding the location well. When it’s on, it doesn’t matter if the batters know it’s coming. Of course, the bad part about having awkward mechanics is injury risk, and he has a history of it, having undergone elbow surgery in high school.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Tolleson making an impact on the 2012 Dodgers, but he probably won’t start there since the roster is crowded.

Serving as a reliever, Bawcom posted a 2.78 ERA and 2.30 FIP with the Loons and a 3.74 ERA and 3.62 FIP with the Quakes. His 30.7 K% highlights his performance, but his BB% sits at 10.2, so his command will need to improve down the road.

He sits in the low-90s and has two off-speed offerings (slider/change) that could grade out as above average. I doubt he’ll ever have elite stuff, so his command has to take strides if he’s to be an impact arm out of the pen.