We present an update of the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, time series of relative risks of childbearing, marriage, and divorce by calendar year are updated with another five years of observation added to previously published series. We demonstrate that fertility in Sweden continued its upward trend during much of the first decade of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. It is driven by the halt in postponement of first childbearing at the younger ages and the continued fertility recuperation at higher ages. Marriage propensities increased as well, reversing a decades-long trend of decreasing marriage rates. The trend reversal comprises first marriages and remarriages alike. Interestingly, the increased popularity of marriage and childbearing is accompanied with a slight decline in divorce risks during the first decade of the new century.

We present an update of the main and parity-specific trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden presented in Finnish Yearbook of Population Research 2011. Based on Swedish register data, previous time series of relative risks of childbearing, marriage, and divorce by calendar year are updated with another five years of observation. We demonstrate that more than a decade of increasing fertility levels turned into moderate fertility declines in 2011. This trend change pertains to all main birth orders. Marriage propensities continued to increase for mothers but stagnated for the childless. Since the turn of the century, trends in divorce risks seem to have leveled off, altogether reflecting a more prevalent role of marriage in recent Swedish family dynamics.

Demographic research has paid much attention to the impact of childhood conditions on adult mortality. We focus on one of the key aspects of early life conditions, sibling group size, and examine the causal effect of growing up in a large family on mortality. While previous studies have focused on low- or middle-income countries, we examine whether growing up in a large family is a disadvantage in Sweden, a context where most parents have adequate resources, which are complemented by a generous welfare state. We used Swedish register data and frailty models, examining all-cause and cause-specific mortality between the ages of 40 and 74 for the 1938–72 cohorts, and also a quasi-experimental approach that exploited multiple births as a source of exogenous variation in the number of siblings. Overall our results do not indicate that growing up in a large family has a detrimental effect on longevity in Sweden.

A growing body of research has examined whether birth intervals influence perinatal outcomes and child health as well as long-term educational and socioeconomic outcomes. To date, however, very little research has examined whether birth spacing influences long-term health. We use contemporary Swedish population register data to examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of health outcomes in adulthood: for men, height, physical fitness, and the probability of falling into different body mass index categories; and for men and women, mortality. In models that do not adjust carefully for family background, we find that short and long birth intervals are clearly associated with height, physical fitness, being overweight or obese, and mortality. However, after carefully adjusting for family background using a within-family sibling comparison design, we find that birth spacing is generally not associated with long-term health, although we find that men born after very long birth intervals have a higher probability of being overweight or obese in early adulthood. Overall, we conclude that birth intervals have little independent effect on long-term health outcomes.

A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932-1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association.

This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality in adulthood over the ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother's age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater amongst women than amongst men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death, but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system, and external causes. Further analyses where we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree.

We examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of mid- and long-term cognitive and socioeconomic outcomes, including high school GPA, cognitive ability, educational attainment, earnings, unemployment status, and receiving government welfare support. Using contemporary Swedish population register data and a within-family sibling comparison design, we find that neither the birth interval preceding the index person nor the birth interval following the index person are associated with any substantively meaningful changes in mid- or long-term outcomes. This is true even for individuals born before or after birth-to-birth intervals of less than 12 months. We conclude that in a contemporary high-income welfare state, there appears to be no relationship between unusually short or long birth intervals and adverse long-term outcomes.

Education is one of the most important drivers of regional migration in European countries, and educational expansion has been a major social phenomenon in the last decades. We use decomposition analysis to examine how the expansion of tertiary education has affected intergenerational distance between adult children and their parents in Sweden. We use administrative register data for the complete population of Sweden and examine changes in intergenerational proximity between 1980 and 2010, using couples at the birth of their first child as the study population. An explicit policy goal of tertiary expansion was to widen the geographical access to tertiary education and the enrolment grew at newer regional institutions during this period. We additionally explore if this policy of regional expansion influenced average distance to parents. We find that intergenerational distances increased over the study period and that this was mainly attributed to the increased enrolment at traditional, older, universities.

Objective: The aim of this descriptive study is to determine which of the family-specific factors, parental fertility behavior or social background, matters most for the intergenerational transmission of fertility.

Methods: Brother and sister correlations in age at first birth and final family size were estimated using multilevel linear regression on data covering 242,976 Swedish men and women born between 1958 and 1967. To explore how much of siblings’ similarity in fertility can be explained by parental fertility behavior (age at parenthood and number of children) and social background, we analyzed the decrease in sibling correlation when these family-specific factors were added to the unconditional models.

Results: We found that most of siblings’ similarity in fertility could not be explained by parental fertility behavior and social background, but that they explained a substantive part of siblings’ similarities in age at first birth and a smaller but non-negligible part of siblings’ similarities in completed fertility. Parental fertility behavior and social background explain as much (about 36%) of brothers’ and sisters’ similarities in age at first birth. Parental fertility behavior matters more than social background for sisters’ similarities in completed family size. Parental fertility behavior and social background explain about the same (5%) for brothers’ similarities in completed family size.

Contribution: This study contributes to the existing understanding of intergenerational transmission of fertility; both methodologically, by introducing a new method to estimate the impact of specific factors shared by siblings, and by determining how much of siblings’ resemblance in fertility can be explained by parental fertility behavior and social background.

This study makes a contribution to the demography and geography of kinship by studying how internal migration and demography shape the geographical availability of kin in contemporary Sweden. Age structures an individual's relationship with their parents and other kin, and this is reflected in how geographical distance to kin varies over the life course. This study uses a longitudinal approach in which the distance to siblings, parents, and grandparents is measured for the same individuals at different ages. The study follows all men and women in Sweden born in 1970 (N = 74,406) and their kin from age 10 (in 1980) to age 37 (in 2007), examining changes in distances to kin at ages when the cohort leave the parental home and often begin a new family. Swedish administrative registers containing yearly information on residence of everyone in Sweden are used to examine how geographical proximity changes over the life course. The study reveals overall continuity in geographical distance to family members after age 25. Overall, results show that Swedes live close to parents, siblings, and grandparents and have a large family network in their proximity.

Age differences in unions have important implications for a number of demographic and societal outcomes. This study examines patterns of age differences in Swedish marital and childbearing unions during the twentieth century, using administrative register data on all first births (1932-2007) and first marriages (1968-2007). All first births are further analyzed by civil status of the parents, and non-married and married parents are compared. The study discusses the theoretical and methodological importance of distinguishing between age heterogamy (absolute age differences) and age hypergamy (gendered age differences) and examines changes in both measures. Results show that age differences in unions changed only slowly over the twentieth century. Age hypergamy decreased at a slow pace, while age heterogamy showed a u-shaped pattern with increasing heterogamy the last decades. These results are confirmed in quantile analyses. Standardizations are also done to examine the influence of age distribution of first unions. Trends for marital versus childbearing unions are similar overall.

Fertility in nineteenth century Europe before the fertility transition has been described as high, unregulated, and stable; the extent of fertility control remains a controversial topic. The aim of this study is to determine whether there is evidence of deliberate birth spacing in northern Sweden prior to the onset of the fertility transition. This study analyses micro-level parish records of 9,636 women in nineteenth century northern Sweden—a remote but, at the time, economically dynamic frontier region of Sweden. Event history analysis reveals evidence of birth spacing that suggests some conscious birth control. Piecewise exponential models of the transition from second to third birth reveal circumstances in which parents increased or decreased the time to next birth. The results on the survival of previous children, geographic context, sex of previous children, and variations in grain prices all indicate that parents deliberately manipulated the spacing between births.

Fertility in 19th century Europe has traditionally been described as high, unregulated andstable for the most of the century followed by a surprisingly geographically uniform decline inthe last decades. This thesis will give an example of a partly conflicting pattern from 19thcentury Northern Sweden, a remote part but at the time economically dynamic frontier region,using micro level data from parish records. The area was characterized by very high fertilityand experienced rising and not falling fertility in the second half of the century. Most previousresearch in historical demography has focus on parity specific forms of fertility control. Thisthesis will instead focus on circumstances that affect birth spacing and motivate parents toaim for shorter or longer birth intervals in pre-transitional Europe. Using event historytechniques there is evidence of parents controlling the timing of their next child to a higherdegree than what has usually been assumed, responding both consciously and quickly when itwas advantageous for the parents.

Contemporary social science research has often focused on nuclear family relationships, and has largely neglected kinship and family outside the nuclear household. In this doctoral thesis I explore demographic issues from a multigenerational perspective, using Swedish register data and mathematical modeling. In different chapters I examine intergenerational transmission of fertility—the relationship between the number of siblings and other kin, and the fertility of an individual. The thesis demonstrates the possibilities for empirical research on family and kinship based on Swedish register data. Unique linkage opportunities across three and four generations are applied to previously unexplored research questions. The studies in the thesis demonstrate the importance of kin outside the household, such as grandparents, aunts/uncles, and cousins, for fertility and family dynamics.

The study of the intergenerational transmission of fertility has a long history in demography, but until now research has focused primarily on parents' influence on their children's fertility patterns and has largely overlooked the possible influence of other kin. This study examines the transmission of fertility patterns from parents, grandparents, uncles, and aunts, using event history models to determine the risk of first, second, and third births. Swedish register data are used to study the 1970-82 birth cohorts. The findings indicate strong associations between the fertility of index persons and that of their parents, and also independent associations between the completed fertility of index persons and that of their grandparents and parents' siblings. The results suggest that, when examining background effects in fertility research, it is relevant to take a multigenerational perspective and to consider the characteristics of extended kin.

Background: Intergenerational transmission of fertility - a correlation between number of siblings and adult fertility - has been consistently demonstrated in developed countries. However, there is only limited knowledge of the causes of this correlation.

Objective: This study estimates the effect of an exogenous increase of number of siblings on adult fertility for men and women using Swedish register data. The effect of an additional sibling is estimated from the birth of younger twin siblings by means of instrumental variable methods.

Results: The study shows that there is no clear effect of an exogenous increase in the number of siblings on completed fertility. There is some evidence that an additional sibling is associated with lower fertility in adulthood.

Conclusions: The results indicate that intergenerational transmission of fertility is due to factors shared between parents and children such as preferences or socioeconomic status, not directly related to the size of the family of upbringing. There is no effect on fertility in adulthood of having an additional sibling per se.

A number of studies have documented consistent patterns in intergenerational transmission of fertility in contemporary societies. However, why children replicate the family size of their parents has received significantly less attention. The goal of this study is to examine whether observed fertility associations across generations are due in part to an intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. Swedish registry data on childbearing histories, other demographic events, and socioeconomic traits are used to disentangle possible explanations of intergenerational fertility continuities. Data are collected for the Swedish cohorts born between 1970 and 1982 for whom parents' and grandparents' family size can be observed. The inclusion of data on grandparents gives insights into pathways for multigenerational associations, and allows for comparisons between maternal and paternal characteristics that are otherwise hard to separate. Results show that some of the observed intergenerational continuity in fertility can be explained by continuities in education and socioeconomic status, but that most fertility associations remain and are related to other sources, such as transmission of values and preferred family size.

Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future.

Based on evolutionary reasoning, Trivers & Willard (1973) predicted status-biased sex composition and parental investment with son-preferencing effects in higher, and daughter-preferencing effects in lower status groups. Previous research shows mixed results. This study uses event-history methods and Swedish register data to study one possible mechanism in isolation: do parents in different status groups vary in their proclivities to continue fertility based on the sex composition of previous offspring? The results show no support for the Trivers-Willard hypothesis on a wide range of different status indicators. Future research on the stated hypothesis should focus on physiological rather than behavioural mechanisms.

Objectives: This study examines if there exists a positive association between socioeconomic status and the proportion of male births in humans, as proposed by Trivers and Willard in 1973, using individual-level data drawn from the complete population of Sweden.

Methods: We examine more than 3,000,000 births between 1960 and 2007 using administrative register data with comprehensive information on various dimensions of socioeconomic status. We use six different operationalizations of socioeconomic status, including earnings, post-transfer income (including government allowances), wealth, parental wealth, educational level, and occupational class. We apply regression models that compare both changes in status for the same woman over time and differences in status across different women. We also measure socioeconomic status both at the year of child birth and the year of conception.

Results: Our results show the absence of any relationship between socioeconomic status and sex ratios, using a large number of different operationalizations of status.

Conclusions: We conclude that no substantive relationship between socioeconomic status and sex ratios exists for the population and period of our study.

The study examines how married couples’ age differences influence retirement coordination in Sweden. High-quality longitudinal administrative registers allow us to study all marital opposite-sex and same-sex couples in Sweden in relation to labor market outcomes. With means of regression analysis, we find that the likelihood of couples retiring close in time decreases as their age difference increases but that age differences have a similar effect on retirement coordination for couples with larger age differences. Additionally, retirement coordination is largely gender neutral in opposite-sex couples with age differences regardless of whether the male spouse is older. Also, male same-sex couples retire closer in time than both opposite-sex couples and female same-sex couples. The definition of retirement coordination as the number of years between retirements contributes to the literature on couples’ retirement behavior and allows us to study the degree of retirement coordination among all couples, including those with larger age differences.

This study examines how married couples’ age differences and gender dynamics influence retirement coordination in Sweden. High-quality longitudinal administrative registers allow us to study the labor market outcomes of all marital couples in Sweden. Using regression analysis, we find that the likelihood of couples retiring close in time decreases as their age difference increases but that age differences have a similar effect on retirement coordination for couples with larger age differences. Additionally, retirement coordination is largely gender-neutral in opposite-sex couples with age differences regardless of whether the male spouse is older. Additionally, male same-sex couples retire closer in time than both opposite-sex couples and female same-sex couples. The definition of retirement coordination as the number of years between retirements contributes to the literature on couples’ retirement behavior and allows us to study the degree of retirement coordination among all couples, including those with larger age differences.