And second, the break higher came on the first attempt - an unusual, and distinctly bullish event -- marking the S&P's first venture above the 200-day since December 2007.

Before detailing the U.S. markets' broader backdrop, the S&P 500's hourly chart highlights the past three weeks.

As the chart illustrates, the S&P broke sharply from its three-week range on Monday, notching six-month highs.

From current levels, first support holds at the May peak of 930 (not illustrated) and is closely followed by another floor around 923.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials' near-term view is similar.

Namely, the index has spiked from a three-week range, notching its best levels since January.

Looking ahead, modest support holds in the 8,700 area, followed by a firmer floor around 8,590.

And as usual, the Nasdaq remains the strongest major benchmark.

As the chart illustrates, it's gapped sharply higher, breaking back into the 1,800's for the first time since October.

From current levels, modest support holds around 1,820, followed by the top of the gap at 1,792.

Widening the view to six months adds color to the technical backdrop.

With Monday's spike, the Nasdaq has broken decisively from its May trading range, placing distance atop the 200-day moving average.

This places the index firmly within a primary uptrend, setting the stage for an eventual test of the 1,900 area. The October peak held at 1,897, matching the bottom of the early-October gap at 1,905, when the crash truly took hold.

Moving to the Dow, it's the only major benchmark not positioned atop its 200-day moving average. (Its 200-day currently holds at 8,751.)

Still, the index has broken sharply atop the May peak, confirming its uptrend from the March low.

And the S&P 500 is where the real technical price action is taking shape.

In a somewhat surprising move, the S&P has broken sharply atop its 200-day moving average, currently at 925, for the first time in 18 months.

The breakout has come on the first test - an unusual, and bullish event -- signaling a new primary uptrend.

The bigger picture

On one level, the U.S. markets' technical backdrop is now incredibly straightforward.

Generally speaking, the 200-day defines the primary trend, and the S&P just cleared that level for the first time in 18 months, signaling a new primary uptrend.

Moreover, the S&P is now positioned atop its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, meaning the near-term, intermediate-term and primary trends all point higher.

So while indicators can always be trotted out to make an adverse case, the bear argument rings hollow after Monday's breakout.

Yet if there were any doubts about the S&P's trendshift -- for instance, the Dow hasn't cleared its 200-day yet -- the chart above supports the bull case.

The Russell 3000 is a much broader index, encompassing about 98% of all U.S. market capitalization.

And as the chart illustrates, the Russell 3000 has also cleared its 200-day, confirming the S&P 500's breakout.

So when the Russell 3000 and the S&P 500 clear their 200-days for the first time in 18 months, that's a relatively rare, and distinctly bullish, technical event.

Particularly when it comes on the first attempt. (The 200-day should require time, and several independent tests.)

Looking ahead, the "watch out" is that these benchmarks reverse sharply back under their 200-days, signaling a false breakout.

Yet barring this sharp reversal, the U.S. markets' recovery attempt -- which originated in mid-March (see the March 10 and March 17 columns) -- has morphed into a primary uptrend, meaning the path of least resistance remains higher, and is now more firmly intact.

Intermediate-term S&P targets now hold in the 990-to-1,010 area, matching the November peak of 1,007, and the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the S&P's all-time high to the March low, at 1,013.

Tuesday's watch list

The charts below highlight names well positioned technically. These are intended as radar-screen names -- sectors or stocks positioned to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, check out The Technical Indicator Library.

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