Nelson, Mack to face off in public -- finally

Less than three weeks before the election, Florida voters will get their first -- and only -- chance Wednesday to hear Florida's two U.S. Senate candidates discuss issues, when Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV square off in a debate televised statewide.

"It's the most unusual Senate race I've ever seen," said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus.

"It started out as one of the top five Senate races in the country," she added -- and then it all but disappeared.

Though Nelson and Mack have run dueling TV commercials since August, the presidential campaign in Florida has vastly overshadowed their race. Neither has even publicly campaigned much until recently.

But thanks to a barrage of ads depicting Mack as a callow, absentee congressman who "believes the rules are different for him," Nelson has ridden comfortable leads in most polls, even as Mack's campaign has dismissed them as flawed.

"I think it's definitely his race to lose," Orange County Democratic chairman Scott Randolph said of Nelson. "Of course Obama went into the first debate [Oct. 3] with that" status.

Observers including MacManus and Randolph believe Mack and Nelson will stick to the themes they've used so far, which have more to do with their ties – or lack of them -- to President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney than with detailed policy discussions.

"My sense is with Romney doing as well as he is, that Mack is going to try to tie himself as closely as he can to Romney," said Orlando-based Republican strategist Tre Evers. "Nelson will try to remain an 'independent-minded Democrat.'"

Indeed, Romney is central to Mack's strategy. Almost all of his speeches end with Mack declaring, "If Romney wins, I win. If I win, Romney wins. If we both win, Florida wins." Most of his policy statements echo Romney's. He likes to describe Nelson as "a lockstep liberal," aligning with Obama on issues from ObamaCare to tax policies, Medicare and the federal deficit.

"Nelson says one thing to the people of Florida, and then does something else in Washington, D.C.," Mack, 45, said in a recent interview. He plans to resume his "Freedom Tour" Wednesday with a stop in Plantation, and is planning to visit 17 more cities in the next six days.

Nelson, 70, is pushing the moderate image he's professed throughout his 12-year Senate career and earlier stints as state insurance commissioner and Brevard County congressman. He cites a long-established reputation as a centrist– groups that rate senators ideologically consistently put him in the middle of the pack -- and contends that Mack is not a serious enough person to be a United States senator.

"I feel very good, but I take nothing for granted," Nelson said in a recent interview. His "Florida First" bus tour resumes in the Panhandle after the debate, and he's promised to go the length of the state, to the Keys.

For months, both candidates limited their campaigning to private gatherings, mostly fundraisers. A month ago, Mack began touring and holding mostly small rallies, but he got a big-crowd appearance 10 days ago when he introduced Romney at an Apopka rally that drew 10,000.

The first public Nelson sightings occurred last weekend. He started with a private gathering in Sanford Friday, but on Saturday spoke to a crowd at The Villages that his campaign announced as 450 people.

Nelson defends his late start by insisting voters know him because he has traveled regularly to all parts of Florida as a sitting senator.

"This is what I've been doing for 12 years since I've been senator. I go into all these counties including the rural counties and hold town hall meetings," he said. "Take for example, North Florida. I work it like a dog. I go into those little counties that never see a senator. They see me."

There have been at least 22 publicly reported polls on the race since Sept. 1, as tracked by RealClearPolitics.com. One had Mack ahead by one point; two reported a tie. The other 19 have Nelson leading, including 13 that had him up by least seven points, one by as many as 16.

Mack's campaign says the polls don't adequately reflect what Republican turnout will be on Election Day, but even Mack's own poll had him down 5 points a week ago. Still, his political strategist, Arthur Finklestein, is publicly professing optimism: "There is a clear path to victory," he wrote in a blog post earlier this week.