Sunday, May 20, 2012

Stéphane Dion is right: the Alternative Vote Would Not Help Canada

“Our
voting system weakens Canada’s cohesion. It artificially amplifies the regional
concentration of political party support at the federal level. With 50% of the
vote in a given province, a federal party could end up taking almost all the
seats. But with 20% of the vote, it may end up not winning any seats at all.
This is how Ontario appeared more Liberal than it really was, Alberta more
Reform-Conservative, Quebec more Bloc, etc.

Exaggerated regional
differences

Dion
says “This regional amplification effect benefits parties with regionally
concentrated support and, conversely, penalizes parties whose support is spread
across the country without dominating anywhere. A party able to reach out to
voters across the country is disadvantaged compared to another whose base is
only in one region.

“I
do not see why we should maintain a voting system that makes our major parties
appear less national and our regions more politically opposed than they really
are. I no longer want a voting system that gives the impression that certain
parties have given up on Quebec, or on the West.”

Preferential
voting (AV/IRV) won’t help

The Liberal Party of Canada voted in January
2012 to support preferential voting (also known as the Alternative Vote, or
Instant Runoff Vote). However, Dion now says “Preferential voting . . .
does nothing to correct the distortion between votes and seats and the
under-representation of national parties compared to regional ones. Other
changes are needed to find a voting system that best fits the Canadian
context.”

So I
checked the 2011 election results to see if Dion is right. On the votes cast in
May 2011, would preferential voting (the “Alternative Vote” or “Instant Runoff
Vote”) do anything to fix the problems he's dismayed by?

To get voters’
second preferences, I used the EKOS poll of “which party
would be your second choice” taken April 28-30, 2011.

AV/IRV
would have cut them down to four MPs. Jacques
Gourde would have lost to the NDP, thanks to second choices of Bloc and Liberal
voters.

That’s
because AV hurts third parties, and in Quebec, the Conservatives and Liberals
have become the third parties.

Liberal
voters in the West are badly under-represented, where they elected only four
MPs, not the 11 MPs their voters deserved. According to my spreadsheet, would
AV have let them elect more MPs?

Not in BC:
second choices would not make any BC seat change hands.

Nor in
Alberta: same result.

Not in
Saskatchewan, although Liberal and Green second choices would have elected NDP
candidate Noah Evanchuk in Palliser.

In
Manitoba NDP second choices would have let Anita Neville hold onto Winnipeg
South Centre.

In
provinces where we already saw three-way races, AV would make a few seats
change hands.

Stéphane Dion is right

But as to his
very justified concern, exaggerated regional differences, Stéphane Dion is
right: AV would do nothing to help. In fact, it would hurt more than it would
help.

Dion says "There are also Conservatives in Quebec, traditionally "blue," particularly in the regions, who are entitled to be heard. Despite my Liberal allegiance, I am convinced that the general interest requires that Quebec’s Conservatives be able to make their full contribution to the building of Canada alongside Conservatives from elsewhere in Canada. I want a federal voting system that fully honours Quebec’s rich political culture, of which we are rightfully proud."

But he is right: AV will not do this. It's not even a step in the right direction; ask Jacques Gourde.

Fair question, Observer. According to the EKOS poll of second choices polled April 28 – 30, 2011, the 1,516 Green voters would have given their second choice as 33% NDP (500), and 17% Liberal (258). The 2,278 Bloc voters would have had second choices of 49% NDP (1,116), 11% Liberal (251). The 7,218 Conservative voters would have had second choices of 23% NDP (1,660), 18% Liberal (1,299). You may have been expecting them to prefer the Liberals, but 47% of them told EKOS they had no second choice, and indeed many voters don’t use their second choice on a preferential ballot (even under STV). Result on the final count: NDP 17,981, Liberal 17,154.

About Me

Although I am a member of Fair Vote Canada's Council at the federal level, the views expressed on this blog are my own.
I have been a lawyer since 1971, an elected school trustee from 1982 to 1994, past chair of the Board of the Northumberland Community Legal Centre, and so on.