KEY QUESTION: HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR IT?

Mayor Chuck Reed will unveil his bold forecast for a green San Jose, circa 2022, today.

His 10-point "green vision" calls for 25,000 new clean-tech jobs, mostly from the solar industry, the planting of 100,000 new trees and 60 miles of new trails.

But Reed goes much further, suggesting that to meet his goals residents drastically cut energy use and that the city rely on new technologies that have yet to be tested.

The mayor says all San Joseans, not just the city, its workers and facilities, should cut energy use by 50 percent over the next 15 years. He says all waste should be diverted from landfills and converted to energy. And he wants 100 percent of San Jose's wastewater - that's 100 million gallons a day - to be recycled or otherwise used beneficially.

As Reed himself says, "It won't be an easy task."

Many of the goals reflect huge leaps forward, at least by today's measurements. None of the waste from San Jose's landfills is being converted to energy right now and only about 10 percent of its wastewater is being recycled. Just 300 of the 2,700 vehicles in the city's fleet are emission-free. Reed wants all of them included in 15 years.

"It's pretty ambitious, but how is he going to pay for it?" asked James Elsen, president and chief executive of Sustain Lane of San Francisco, an online media company that ranks cities on their level of sustainability. Last year, San Jose ranked No. 23 among the top 50 cities. "On first blush it seems pretty far-reaching.

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But the mayors of other major American cities, such as Portland, Ore., and Denver, have been going green and Elsen noted that Reed has an advantage they don't: "The fastest-growing segment in the VC industry is clean tech, and that's in his back yard."

Further complicating Reed's dream are projections from the Association of Bay Area Governments that San Jose's population will grow from 993,000 in 2005 to 1.2 million by 2020.

Reed doesn't address how much his plan will cost or how to pay for it, other than alluding to the savings from energy efficiency and the need for fiscal responsibility.

"San Jose will show the world that environmental responsibility makes financial sense," Reed says.

It's not clear who would be responsible for ensuring San Jose meets Reed's targets if they are adopted by the city council. If the mayor seeks re-election and wins, he would leave office in 2014 - seven years before the deadline he lays out.

His plan emphasizes vision over specifics. Partially, it hinges on future technology improvements, partnerships with local companies and institutions to help defray costs, money from the state and federal governments, and a consensus that these are high-priority goals for America's 10th-largest city.

Creating 25,000 clean-technology jobs in San Jose sounds realistic to Julie Blunden, a vice president at SunPower, which makes solar panels.

"San Jose is putting its efforts concretely on being friendly for economic development and as a customer for clean tech," she said.

Reed cites a solar installation on buildings owned by the San Jose Unified School District as the kind of thing he has in mind. Announced this year and due to be completed in 2008, the project was financed by the Bank of America and will be built and maintained by Chevron Energy Solutions.

The schools are "not writing a check, and they're saving a million dollars a year. That's a message mayors understand," Reed said.

He envisions San Jose serving as a demonstration site for new technologies created by local companies. These might be tested on city buildings or city-owned land.

Once proven, he said, the technologies will be sold to other cities seeking to go green.

"We need to do the R&D for every city in the world to show them how we can do clean and green," Reed said. "Part of that R&D is to demonstrate that you can do it and still be fiscally responsible."

The plan started with a conversation between Reed and U.S. Rep. Mike Honda, D-Campbell, who said, "You guys should do something bold." That led to a one-page idea that San Jose could get 100 percent of its power from renewables, and months of discussions with city staff, area leaders and energy experts. The plan is now in its ninth draft and is 13 pages long.

"It's at a time when Silicon Valley is abuzz with the opportunities in clean technology," Reed said.

The plan's 15-year timetable was driven by estimates of how long it would take San Jose to get 100 percent of its power from renewable sources such as the sun and wind. "It looks like 15 years is doable," Reed said. "Difficult, but not impossible or unrealistic, but doable. So that's the key goal."

Frank Wolak, a Stanford University economics professor who studies energy issues, noted that Reed's call for San Jose to get 100 percent of its power from renewable sources is far more ambitious than California's push to get 20 percent from renewables by 2010.

"We're nowhere near that and most likely won't achieve that by 2010," he said.

San Jose's task also becomes increasingly difficult, Wolak said, as more and more entities - the state itself, big utilities, other cities and businesses - seek renewable power.

"If a significant part of the state went for it, it would be impossible to achieve," he said.

"Anything that has 100 percent on it is very hard to achieve. Getting a little is pretty cheap. Getting more is expensive, and it becomes increasingly expensive as you try to get that percentage up higher and higher."

Reaction from others familiar with Reed's plan was positive.

"For anyone who wondered if our mayor lacked vision, the Silicon Valley Leadership Group is selling crow for them to eat," said Carl Guardino, the group's president and chief executive. "The plan is as ambitious and visionary as this valley, and it needs to be."

Reed will unveil the plan this afternoon at Integrated Design Associates (IDeAs), a converted bank branch on Old Almaden Road that'll be a so-called Z-squared or zero-squared facility that uses less electricity than it generates and doesn't emit any carbon. It will be presented to the city council Oct. 30.