Undefeated Update (11/4/2013)

Paul Bessire, General Manager, PredictionMachine.com

By Paul Bessire

Monday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET

Alabama, Oregon and Baylor were on a bye. Ohio State, Fresno State and Northern Illinois may as well have been (though Nevada made things closer against Fresno State than anticipated). And, this Thursday, we have two matchups of top ten BCS teams, including undefeated Baylor hosting Oklahoma and our top ranked team (again this week), Oregon, traveling to Stanford. With little happening (especially of a surprising nature) last week, we will give a quick update here on the undefeated odds and various scenarios for top teams in college football. After what should be an exciting overall week of action (Alabama also takes on LSU, which is #2 vs. #7 in our College Football Power Rankings).

To see how we do this and how the numbers have changed from last week, check out last week's article on Undefeated Odds. Next week, with some likely shake up, we will start to look at outcomes of specific BCS National Championship games.

College Football’s Undefeateds:

There are currently five undefeated teams in BCS-AQ – Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, Florida State and Ohio State. The five undefeated teams have 24 remaining regular season games combined and could play in five conference championship games. In all of those games, the current undefeated team is favored in our projections. Here are the chances that each current undefeated FBS team wins all of its remaining regular season (and conference championship) games:

Current Power Rank: 2Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 46Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Chattanooga)Undefeated Chances: 49.7% Closest Remaining Game: SEC Championship Game (December 7)Teams that would be favored over Alabama on a neutral field: OregonEstimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 49.7% (if Alabama wins out, the Tide should be in)

Florida State Seminoles

Current Power Rank: 3Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 53Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)Undefeated Chances: 53.0%Closest Remaining Game: ACC Championship Teams that would be favored over Florida State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.2% (if Florida State wins out and either Alabama or Oregon loses, Florida State should be in)

Baylor Bears

Current Power Rank: 5Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 92 (yeah, that's about to change quickly)Games Remaining: 5 (all against teams in top 40 of our Power Rankings)Undefeated Chances: 23.5%Closest Remaining Game: at Oklahoma State (November 23)Teams that would be favored over Baylor on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida StateEstimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 12.9% (if Baylor wins out and two teams from Alabama, Oregon and Florida State lose, Baylor should be in)

Ohio State Buckeyes

Current Power Rank: 6Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 80Games Remaining: 4 (with conference championship, the next two of those are 90%+ victories for Ohio State)Undefeated Chances: 45.9% Closest Remaining Game: B1G Championship GameTeams that would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M, Baylor Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 21.1% (if Ohio State wins out and three teams from Alabama, Oregon, Baylor and Florida State lose, Ohio State should be in)

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer and Halftime Picks can be purchased in the Shop.

3/30/2015 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of March 23rd - 29th, one could find that all playable college basketball against-the-spread and over/under picks combined to go 13-9 (59% ATS and O/U) for the week.

In the NBA over the last week, all featured, "normal" or better against-the-spread and over/under picks went 8-4 (67% ATS and O/U).

And finally, with baseball just around the corner, consistently an opportunity for strong value, "normal" or better MLB Over/Under Season Win Total picks are 41-14 (75% O/U) on the site all-time.