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Renall you completely ignored my point that it makes no sense for someone to lie about something that can be easily checked.

Your whole counters fall if you can't find a plausible explanation for this.

It wasn't checked. There is no evidence that it was. Or, the police were fooled, and verified something they were misled to believe.

It's really not a problem, not even remotely.

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The messages in the bottles are an existence that is known worldwide and so are their contents. So a fact like "the first message was discovered by the police shortly after the incident" can't possibly be something that Ootsuki made up. There's just no way that the origin of those messages weren't made public, and there's no way that the authorities wouldn't rectify a false statement about themselves.

If they consider it fanciful nonsense unresponsive to an incident they have determined to be an accident, why comment? If they were fooled too, why not confirm?

They were not timely made public. That is inherently suspicious. And that the police released evidence at all... well, isn't that odd too? Ootsuki acts like he's actually seen the original messages, else how would he know whose handwriting it was?

Ootsuki didn't make anything up, but Ootsuki will believe what he's told if it makes the situation more interesting. He might check up on a story, but we simply have no proof he ever did so beyond meeting with Ange.

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The bottle was taken as an evidence about the incident. You should know well that in that case all the related info about its discovery were properly registered and that it was stored into a safe place.

I should know that? I don't know that. How do you know that?

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Again if you question this you must provide a sensible explanation as to why Ootsuki would lie or as to why he would be misinformed despite being a prominent witch hunter and an university professor.

Because he wants to believe the premise behind the Rokkenjima Witch Hunt is true. In a situation like this, hoaxes not only are possible, they are commonplace; remember, Witch Hunters contend with "forgeries" literally all the time. They even have terms for them! They "believe" the message bottles because the message bottles were first. And I don't doubt they were first. But that doesn't prove every other conclusion drawn from that.

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So the only option that's left to you is to speculate that the police or someone inside falsified the story or the content of the bottle. But can you really find any reason as to why would they want to do that?

The story is not "falsified," at least if it was written by the person we think is the author. Its provenance was falsified for effect. Would a person who meticulously prepares secret bank accounts ahead of time really not be able to pull this off?

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You could say the same thing to question every single fact of this story. It's what we are told, and that's all that we have to base or reasonings upon.

A story which has, if nothing else, repeatedly asked us to question our perceptions and examine who is filtering "facts" to us.

Irrelevant. The story claims most of the bottles were found quickly. It is only their revelation that was supposedly delayed. Despite this being a huge news story.

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Then she has no reasons to wait until the facts to write her stories.

True, but you're stubbornly refusing to understand the dichotomy I'm trying to break down here.

If she wrote them before the incident, she had to have written them well before and yet not so far before that certain events could not have been changed (Battler returning, Ange not coming, the storm's exact duration). Assuming we don't think she was a killer, the only rational explanation I've seen given is that the stories were drafts while brainstorming her idea for the murder game, which may or may not have really happened. This would explain why she didn't care about whether they were all found.

If she wrote them after the incident, she obviously would have to be alive. If she's alive, she is in a position to set up the Witch Hunt, and a motive for doing so (locating Battler). She also has a motive to kill Eva in the stories (her own little way of exonerating her, and to establish the stories as clear fictions). She also lacks most time constraints, and probably financial constraints as well if that bank card existed.

On balance, I think the second of these is more rational and more in keeping with her personality. The obvious counter is "well why didn't we see that confirmed?" but once again, the former is never actually confirmed either. They both require assumptions be made and speculation be engaged in.

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And where was that suggested?
Maybe you haven't noticed but this was the last episode.

It's implied by the text. What, it doesn't have to be explicitly stated, does it? Battler's survival was long speculated before that point!

Also: Umineko Rei. Hey, if it happens he's got to write about something.

Expectations toward it bringing much truth feels similar to me how nearly everyone expected arc 8 to bring out a clear truth about "Rokkenjima Prime".

It most likely then not won't happen.
Ryuukishi even said the mystery part of Umineko to be over with the release of arc 7. Even arc 8 I feel for the most part only gave us a lot of munitions for whatever we already believed in.

Whew, busy with school work for a couple days and 4+ pages. The discussions on the message bottle writing was interesting. I apologize, just need to respond to a couple posts...

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Originally Posted by naever

Actually, it's so unobstructive that it feels like it could be completely irrelevant, besides philosophical way of seeing things. At least in Umineko, since, as it's been pointed out before, the meta world doesn't seem to have much power over the real world anyway. But the thing for me is... I really can't accept yet that Umineko and Higurashi are completely unrelated. And, someone correct me if i'm wrong, the influence of the... supernatural forces, in Higurashi, were much more present, and powerful there.

The way I see things, Higurashi is a story about time loops and Umineko is a story about mystery tales in bottles but, ultimately, the franchise as a whole is a story about higher level beings who might not fully exist in the real world but exist in some level, as beings with real independent thoughts, feelings and free will. Also, the way these beings are born out of concepts of things and people, and how they might even interact with reality to a certain extent which not yet very clear. And that makes the whole idea that the meta world is real much more important, because really, the main characters here are really Battler and Beatrice, not Touya and Yashushaknonwhatsherface, and I care more about the former in their out-of-reality's-reach dimension than I'll ever care about the latter in their we-might-as-well-never-have-seen real world. And maybe you could say the same even as you think of them as simple fictional characters who can at most (slightly)reflect their real selves personality, but to me that feels a bit... empty. Not to step on any toes. Maybe it's just because it adds to the mass of "things that were hinted, then forgotten or never really explained" which everything the meta characters say or do is becoming to me.

Thank you, I'm glad somebody sees where I'm coming from! It really is the kind of thing that doesn't really 'matter', but to me it creates an incredibly interesting world and setting, leaving open almost infinite possibilities. Not to mention the implications of such a meta-world.

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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

If you look at EP4 you see Maria frequently stating in her diary that she's happy, and she looks down on Ange that understands that obviously she's not.

Then later you see Maria slaughtering Rosa in her fantasies and repeating over and over that she can't forgive her. This is a true indicator of her real feelings, but the point is that when asked Maria denies denies and denies.

She even refuses to say that she's angry with her mother, rather creating the fictional persona of the "Black witch" in order to justify what happens.

But that's not what happens in the scene where she kills her mother over and over, in that case she recognizes her as her mother, not the black witch.

So there's clearly something wrong. Maria definitely can't see the truth neither of the world nor of herself.

I'll respond to this, but first I'll reply to your second point as a lead-in.

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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

On regards of the author theory, it's interesting to see that the point that Keriaku raised was the main critique to my "games are fictions" theory that I worked hard to defend before EP6.

I have a question to Keriaku and to those who agrees with him though. One of the points I stressed out with my fictional interpretation was that with such explanation Beatrice's actions could be seen on a completely different light.

Since it's fiction, the fact that she kills the pawns over and over and in horrible ways isn't a bad thing. Since they are fictional characters they do not really have feelings and they do not really suffer.

However if you deny the fictional interpretation you can no longer use this argument. How can you justify Beatrice for doing all that cruel things to sentient beings? Without any remorse... while laughing...

I can't hardly think about something more horrible.

My response to this is that what Beatrice did was terrible. I don't think this should be downplayed at all, and is actually one of the points I might have against such an interpretation. Beatrice most certainly is not a perfect person. And if she has been around for 1000 years in this catbox, it makes sense she'd be jaded (such as towards Kanon and Shannon) and have a lost sense of humanity in context of the meta-world. With the endless power she possesses, all of the death would simply become a slight distraction. She's seen it all x many times, and will continue to for the foreeseeable future.

And just to make my point, if someone did take the stance that they're just pawns and it doesn't matter because they don't have feelings, what would that mean for the conversation between Battler and Beatrice in EP3 when he gets angry and Beatrice reflects on her actions? Are you saying this becomes a very convoluted and ultimately pointless scene, which it would be if it truly was as you say. Where for me it is clear character development.

To take this a little farther, since it's relevant, for me when Battler forgives Beatrice it's because he sheds his limited human perspective, and understands the position she was in. Though she was 'playing' with their lives, he understands where she was coming from (her self-justifications and reasoning, her 'heart'), being stuck in this limbo stage of the higher realm.

Now for the point about Maria, it's true what Maria is doing is morbid. The fact that the scene happens is because Maria has faced great psychological damage. This is a point where it doesn't really matter if the meta-world exists or not, because the end result is the same. If the meta-world is real, then Beatrice and Maria are in a closed space where together Maria can kill her over and over until she's satisfied, so she'll still be able to accept her mother in the real world. If the meta-world is not real then that means Maria met with Yasu and they planned or discussed the very same things. The end result is the same, I choose to believe the scene happens as shown.

I'd say I agree with this statement for the plot. I disagree for the characters. Basically I would say the different Fragments only affect the meta-setting and progression, as shown, and in no way intereferes with the mystery.

Expectations toward it bringing much truth feels similar to me how nearly everyone expected arc 8 to bring out a clear truth about "Rokkenjima Prime".

It most likely then not won't happen.
Ryuukishi even said the mystery part of Umineko to be over with the release of arc 7. Even arc 8 I feel for the most part only gave us a lot of munitions for whatever we already believed in.

I might be wrong, but I get the impression that the rei arcs are short stories he writes to give himself extra time to come up with his next project. That way he has a year to come up with the groundwork for his next world.

It wasn't checked. There is no evidence that it was. Or, the police were fooled, and verified something they were misled to believe.

The Rokkenjima incident was discussed for 10 years as a consequence of those messages being showed, and you think that no one checked if the first was actually discovered by the police and taken in custody as a proof?

And the police was fooled, how?

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Originally Posted by Renall

It's really not a problem, not even remotely.If they consider it fanciful nonsense unresponsive to an incident they have determined to be an accident, why comment? If they were fooled too, why not confirm?

According to Okonogi the police made further investigations as a consequence of all these speculations. So your idea that the police couldn't care less is wrong, unless of course you question what Okonogi said as well.

Ah and of course you'd also need to think that Ange is completely clueless about anything Rokkenjima incident related to be told all those false claims and buy them all.

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Originally Posted by Renall

They were not timely made public. That is inherently suspicious. And that the police released evidence at all... well, isn't that odd too? Ootsuki acts like he's actually seen the original messages, else how would he know whose handwriting it was?

It's not "like", Ootsuki did claim he has seen the original messages.
I don't think it's so suspicious that the police didn't make public a completely suspicious message in a bottle that could be completely irrelevant to the case. As far as I know the police doesn't particularly likes journalists and wild speculations. But after another message was discovered they could no longer prevent that.

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Originally Posted by Renall

Ootsuki didn't make anything up, but Ootsuki will believe what he's told if it makes the situation more interesting. He might check up on a story, but we simply have no proof he ever did so beyond meeting with Ange.

We have proof that he physically checked those stories since he visioned the messages with his own eyes. Why he needed to do that if he only cared about speculating? Look, you are grossly underestimating Ange if you think she'd waste her time with a total idiot.
Ootsuki must be one of those guys that "wants to believe" but he's competent enough to check his facts. He is an university professor he has a lot to lose in credibility for making claims that any of his detractors could easily prove wrong.

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Originally Posted by Renall

The story is not "falsified," at least if it was written by the person we think is the author. Its provenance was falsified for effect. Would a person who meticulously prepares secret bank accounts ahead of time really not be able to pull this off?

I must ask you why you go so far into questioning that the police made a claim that is confirmed from different sources and at the same time you give for granted that the messages were written by Beatrice even so we actually don't even have an explicit claim about it from the 1998 perspective.

Why you aren't that skeptical with the bomb theory, even so from the 1998 perspective the only thing that is known are the words of some witnesses about Kinzo's tall talks?

Where's the coherence in your logic?

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Originally Posted by Renall

Irrelevant. The story claims most of the bottles were found quickly.

Most of the bottles?! Most of the bottles?!
One bottle was found soon, one bottle was found several years later. There are only two freaking bottles! How exactly can you use the word "most" when the total number is two?!

The story I have shown clearly demonstrates that it is absolutely not impossible for a bottle to be found several years after being thrown, even without traveling at all.

There is absolutely no reason to distrust a completely plausible story.

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Originally Posted by Renall

True, but you're stubbornly refusing to understand the dichotomy I'm trying to break down here.

If she wrote them before the incident, she had to have written them well before and yet not so far before that certain events could not have been changed (Battler returning, Ange not coming, the storm's exact duration). Assuming we don't think she was a killer, the only rational explanation I've seen given is that the stories were drafts while brainstorming her idea for the murder game, which may or may not have really happened. This would explain why she didn't care about whether they were all found.

If she wrote them after the incident, she obviously would have to be alive. If she's alive, she is in a position to set up the Witch Hunt, and a motive for doing so (locating Battler). She also has a motive to kill Eva in the stories (her own little way of exonerating her, and to establish the stories as clear fictions). She also lacks most time constraints, and probably financial constraints as well if that bank card existed.

On balance, I think the second of these is more rational and more in keeping with her personality.

I clearly made a point that the "it's more rational" argument fails with Umineko, so it's not really a reason I can consider to evaluate the validity of a theory.
The only thing I can consider is how much they are grounded within the facts presented in the story.

So on your second point I don't really think what you suggests matches with what we know about Beatrice at all. She is at best a prankster, not an evil mastermind capable of manipulating the police and the whole world. You are assuming a degree of skill by far higher than what's required to fool a bounce of servants.

Also if your theory was right Beatrice would have been able to locate Battler. But there's absolutely nothing that suggests she did.

Your theory also raises a lot of questions: how Beatrice survived? Is there a third escape route we aren't aware of? How does she know that Battler survived? Where did she live for all those years? Why Ryuukishi never mentioned anything of that sort? Why everything from a metaphorical sense strongly implies that Beatrice died?

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Originally Posted by Renall

The obvious counter is "well why didn't we see that confirmed?" but once again, the former is never actually confirmed either. They both require assumptions be made and speculation be engaged in.

They aren't even remotely on the same level. The former doesn't require any speculation from the reader, it's what was said in several instances and explicitly stated in EP8.

The latter is only the fruit of your own speculations.

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Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura

Umineko Rei would most likely be a comedy.

Expectations toward it bringing much truth feels similar to me how nearly everyone expected arc 8 to bring out a clear truth about "Rokkenjima Prime".

It most likely then not won't happen.
Ryuukishi even said the mystery part of Umineko to be over with the release of arc 7. Even arc 8 I feel for the most part only gave us a lot of munitions for whatever we already believed in.

That.

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Originally Posted by Judoh

I might be wrong, but I get the impression that the rei arcs are short stories he writes to give himself extra time to come up with his next project. That way he has a year to come up with the groundwork for his next world.

I actually do question the bomb thing, because it's absolutely absurd without some rational explanation.

I don't think you really get where I'm going with any of this, and there's really no point shouting at each other over it because he intentionally or unintentionally left this vague. You're pretty much falling over yourself to "demonstrate" things which you don't actually know because there are gaps in the information. Within these gaps, speculation can exist. If he didn't want people questioning these things, he should have provided more definitive evidence. Secondhand sources within the narrative are inherently untrustworthy.

As to other survivors, I'm under no obligation to speculate how they would have escaped because Ryukishi has clearly indicated he's willing to conjure up escape routes and boats on a whim. Maybe Beatrice rescued Eva. Maybe she found a second boat. Maybe she hung out underground until Kawabata swung by to pick her up. Maybe she really was a witch and teleported off the island with magic. It's not relevant how so long as it's possible, and frankly the only person it's even implausible for is Maria. That's a door he opened all by his lonesome, so don't come crying to me.

No one confirmed that the jawbone was Maria's, only that it was small enough to be hers. It actually belonged to some child voodoo skull in Kinzo's study. Maria's chilling out with Rosa in Canada. Suck on that.

No one confirmed that the jawbone was Maria's, only that it was small enough to be hers. It actually belonged to some child voodoo skull in Kinzo's study. Maria's chilling out with Rosa in Canada. Suck on that.

No one confirmed that the jawbone was Maria's, only that it was small enough to be hers. It actually belonged to some child voodoo skull in Kinzo's study. Maria's chilling out with Rosa in Canada. Suck on that.

The issue was never really whether a person could be bonkers nuts, but whether one could be bonkers nuts and an amazingly coordinated planner, ninja, and diplomat. All while contending with multiple personalities.

I think the DID concept eventually fell out of favor once people realized it needn't rise to that level to work out (acting, fiction, etc.).

Erika was the detective trying to prevent the heist. Her last shot in the movie will be throwing her hat down and growling as the Ushiromiyas escape in their badass chopper. "Next time, Battler, Next tiiiiime!"

...I was actually imagining the Ushiromiyas killing Erika, using her jawbone and adding insult to injury by making her seem like a bitch in a story they decided to write years later, but yours is better.