Monday, March 22, 2010

Gordon Campbell`s budget numbers are toast,natural gas prices are in free-fall,productions levels at record highs,inventory way above average,industry and consumer use falls year after year do to new found efficiencies.

The Province was counting on $6.00 to $8.00 dollar natural gas, natural gas futures are down,warm weather has demand plummeting, and the money numbers get worse,the US has natural gas everywhere,Ontario has natural gas,Russia has tons of natural gas,Eastern Canada has natural,even Europe now believes they have natural gas......The price has fallen off a cliff,long term forcasters have the price remaining low for decades.....Gordon Campbell put all his eggs in one basket,Gordon Campbell couldn`t run a lemenade stand......The Campbell Government was expecting big revenue from Royalties,well that isn`t going to happen,all the subsidies and royalty free holidays for producers Gordon Campbell will see a 1/2 billion dollar hole in their forecasts!

Released: March 18, 2010 at 2:00 P.M.Next Release: Thursday, March 25, 2010">Natural Gas Transportation Update"Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, March 17, 2010)Natural gas prices continued declining at market locations across the lower 48 States this week, with spot and futures prices registering sizeable losses for the week ended March 17. Spot prices in the lower 48 States fell between 1 and 6 percent on the week, as weather-related demand for natural gas decreased and supplies remained relatively strong.The Henry Hub spot price ended the report week yesterday 17 cents lower than the preceding week, at $4.27 per million Btu (MMBtu). Since February 17, the Henry Hub spot price has registered a decrease of $1.20 per MMBtu.At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for April delivery at the Henry Hub ended trading yesterday at $4.303 per MMBtu, falling by 26 cents or about 6 percent during the report week.Natural gas in storage decreased to 1,615 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of March 12, leaving inventories 4.7 percent above the 5-year average (2005-2009). The implied net withdrawal was 11 Bcf.

Prices

Natural gas spot prices continued declining this week, reflecting moderating demand as temperatures warmed in key high-demand areas of the country. Spot prices at market locations across lower 48 States fell since last Wednesday, March 10, with decreases ranging between 4 and 26 cents. Prices at trading locations serving demand centers in the Northeast also fell significantly on the week, as spring-like temperatures arrived. The spot price at the Algonquin Citygate, which delivers natural gas to markets in New England, fell 19 cents or about 4 percent on the week. Transcontinental Pipeline’s delivery into New York City was priced at $4.58 per MMBtu yesterday, 18 cents, or 3.8 percent, lower than the previous Wednesday. Prices at trading locations serving markets in California registered some of the biggest declines since last Wednesday, particularly the southern portion of the State where temperatures continued to moderate. Natural gas spot price at the Southern California Gas Company’s market location fell 22 cents or about 5 percent since last Wednesday, ending trading yesterday at $4.49 per MMBtu. Prices at the Pacific Gas and Electric trading location, which serves markets in northern California also decreased significantly on the week, falling by 21 cents. However, despite the significant price decline, this location was the highest-priced in the lower 48 States as of yesterday, ending trading at $4.81 per MMBtu. The high price at this location and its spread compared with the Henry Hub and trading locations in the Northeast is the result of several factors. These factors include BENTEK Energy estimates, which show that since the middle of 2009, electric generators in the Western United States have been using more natural gas compared with the 5-year (2005-2009) average. The increased power burn is likely the result of a reduction in hydroelectric power generation in the Pacific Northwest and California because of lower precipitation and drought conditions. Furthermore, natural gas is replacing the 1,100 megawatts of electric power that Unit 2 of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) previously generated. SONGS Unit 2 has been out of service since September 2009 for steam generator replacement. While temperatures in the Rocky Mountain States increased slightly during the report week, they continued to hover in the 30s and 40s. Still, the price of natural gas fell substantially in a few market locations in the Rockies. The highest net weekly price drop occurred at Northwest Pipeline’s Sumas location, which fell by 26 cents or 5.7 percent per MMBtu since last Wednesday. The Sumas premium over Henry Hub decreased from 14 cents to 5 cents per MMBtu as of yesterday. Additionally, prices at Kingsgate in Idaho and Stanfield (for delivery into Oregon) fell by 23 and 22 cents per MMBtu, respectively. Overall, trading locations in the Rockies registered net weekly decreases between 4 and 26 cents per MMBtu. The across-the-board price decreases likely resulted from the significant reduction in total U.S. demand. Total demand for the week ended March 17 fell by 8.6 percent compared with last week, according to BENTEK Energy. Consumption in the residential and commercial sectors fell by 12 percent, contributing to the week-to-week decline. The majority of the decrease in this sector occurred between Monday and Wednesday of this week, as temperatures rose in areas east of the Rockies. The electric power and industrial sectors also recorded demand decreases of 8.6 and 2.3 percent, respectively. Natural gas supply exceeded total demand for 3 days this report week, the first time the estimated supply/demand balance was positive since November 26, 2009. However, total natural gas supply fell this week, a result of the decrease in Canadian and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout, according to BENTEK. Canadian imports decreased by almost 2 percent compared with last week, while LNG sendout fell by nearly 9 percent over the same period. U.S. natural gas production was flat compared with last week, with volumes totaling only 0.1 percent lower. Total supply of natural gas this week was 0.4 percent lower than last week and 2.2 percent lower than last year for the same week.-->-->At the NYMEX, the price of the near-month contract for April delivery decreased by 26 cents during the report week to $4.303 per MMBtu. The price of the April futures contract has decreased fairly consistently since becoming the near-month contract on February 25, falling 46 cents during the period. Remaining contracts for delivery through the end (October 31, 2010) of the upcoming injection season posted similar decreases, ranging between 4.7 and 5.5 percent. Prices on the futures market likely reflect the arrival of spring-like temperatures and continued strength in natural gas production. With only about 2 weeks left in the traditional heating season, which will officially end on March 31, supplies of natural gas are relatively ample. Robust domestic production coupled with the possibility that natural gas inventories in underground storage may close the heating season at about last year’s level could provide considerable downward pressure on prices. Inventories of natural gas in underground storage ended the 2008-2009 heating season at 1,656 Bcf, the highest level since the 2005-2006 heating season ended with 1,692 Bcf of natural gas in storage. The 12-month strip traded yesterday at $4.919 per MMBtu, 22 cents or 4.3 percent lower than last Wednesday.

StorageWorking gas in storage decreased to 1,615 Bcf as of Friday, March 12. The implied net withdrawal was 11 Bcf, significantly below both the 5-year (2005-2009) average withdrawal of 65 Bcf, and last year’s net withdrawal of 42 Bcf for the report week. The East and West regions both noted net withdrawals for the week; however, storage operators in the Producing region reported the first regional net injection of the season of 14 Bcf. This net injection in the Producing region reduced the storage deficit compared with last year to 135 Bcf, down from 145 Bcf last week. With less than 3 weeks left in the current heating season (November 1-March 31), natural gas stocks in underground storage are on pace to finish the heating season above the 5-year average. If the remaining withdrawals equal the 5-year average withdrawals and injections for the remainder of the month, natural gas stocks would end the heating season at 1,557 Bcf, about 73 Bcf above the 5-year average. Temperatures in the country were generally warmer than normal for the week ended March 11, with total heating degree-days falling short of normal levels by about 10 percent. Based on the National Weather Service’s degree-day data, temperatures in the United States were 2 degrees warmer than normal, but 3 degrees colder than last year. Four Census Divisions in the Northeast and the Midwest recorded average temperatures that were more than 5 degrees warmer than normal Temperature Maps and Data. The West South Central Census Division, which roughly coincides with EIA’s Producing Region, also experienced above-normal temperatures. Despite relatively warmer temperatures in the Northeast and the Midwest, these areas remained cold and registered the lowest temperatures in the country for the week ended March 11. Elsewhere in the United States, average temperatures ranged between 39 and 67 degrees.

Friends,you don`t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Campbell latest budget will be out a country mile and the deficit will be larger by hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars.

13 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Grant said - "The Province was counting on $6.00 to $8.00 dollar natural gas".

The province utilizes 25 private sector forecasts and for the current fiscal year the natural gas royalty forecast is "$4.29 Cdn/gigajoule", which would equate to ~$4.07 Cdn/MMBtu. A lower Cdn$ will also help.

In any event, production is expected to double post-2013 due to the large tight shale plays in NE BC with much of that exported to Asia/Spain, which would double provincial revenues with the price remaining the same (it won't - it will increase post-recession).

Remember, when WE form government in 2013 we want to expand that cash flow to provincial coffers!

did you hear the commercials playing on the giant of deflection ,n dumbell u,bullfrog energy?pay more for green energy for your children s future call and we'll make sure your energy is green, WTF? lol

Before we start tearing up contracts (which I'd love to see)...we need to check out the most misunderstood, and unknown agreement of them all: TILMA.

If contracts can be rescinded or negated, that will need to be the first one to go. Of all the damage GC has done to this province...that agreement is the most damning of all of them. Don't be surprised if it can't be undone - and if it can't - that will be the means used against us when it comes time to deal with the rest of his secretive agreements.

the rules should be changed, that no government should be able to sign contracts that go beyond their 5 year mandate unless it goes to a referendum to the people that are the true owners of resources whats happening now is that political parties can change the landscape of our futures with no repercussions and that my friends is truly a sad situation we must bring in this type of legislation to truly be free of oppressors in our case a cabinet and backbenches full of retards and yes men and as you can see in our house in Victoria nothing but contempt diversion and sneakiness all accepted by the law all of these characters should be in jail.Genuine.

the rules should be changed, that no government should be able to sign contracts that go beyond their 5 year mandate unless it goes to a referendum to the people that are the true owners of resources whats happening now is that political parties can change the landscape of our futures with no repercussions and that my friends is truly a sad situation we must bring in this type of legislation to truly be free of oppressors in our case a cabinet and backbenches full of retards and yes men and as you can see in our house in Victoria nothing but contempt diversion and sneakiness all accepted by the law all of these characters should be in jail.Genuine.

Anon 8:56 amI agree ... no government should be able to sign contracts that go beyond their 4-5 year mandate.....I also think they should not be allowed to run for more than two four year terms, just like the States. The way it is now they continue to rule when they are long ago voted out and eventually rule from the grave. It also prevents a lot of what is going on now with Campbell and his mobs IMO destroying everything we have and own, under the B.C. Liberals dictatorship. Their wages and pensions should be decided by an independent board at a set rate so they can never again run our province by bribing the MLAs who are supposed to work for us (and don't) not Campbell, as part of his organized mob, including PAB which should never be allowed to exist. I believe this province right now is totally under organized crime rule. The gangsters are all heading to B.C. because they thrive where there is only lawlessness and they don't pay any income taxes and right behind them follow the lawyers to make huge money to keep them out of jail and free to continue getting richer, endangering the lives of people of B.C. with their gangland shootings and crime. The media plays the biggest part in all this and they should have to report according to some code of ethics but most of all we must have a publicly run media as these private media are in it only for the money and the fortunes they are making now can easily be done with a corrupt government. Campbell had the media bribed years ago with his thousands of best place on earth garbage ads, costing us billions, going to the media. No news on the government is NOT good news. I think it's time to organize, perhaps labour would like to help instead of doing absolutely nothing about this government, and we should be outside the offices of Global and CTV every day until they start doing their jobs. Government/media = dictatorship.

And so WHY do they get away with raising prices when the cost of this commodity is down, way down! It's the government who allow the corporates to write their own prices, regardless of markets, give them huge tax breaks/write offs, which joe public now has to pay more. They have to pay their dividends you know, and the CEO bonuses. Talk about dictatorship. Shame on every one of them, but then again, they have No Shame. Not the individual, nor any of their family members. The old saying, Money talks is alive and well here in the corrupt BC.

Do we pay 6% more for natural gas heat? I have had a deluge of people trying to get me to sign up for, a set price. So far I have refused. Even with the huge gas fields, the cost is still going up. I am now wondering if a person would be better off, signing for a set price? Is there, HST applied on top of my N.G. heat bill? There are so many different answers, where the HST is applied. Straight Goods, I find, really do good research and have a lot of savvy people, commenting on the posts. Being a pensioner on a fixed income, I really need to know if, HST, is applied to, heat, hydro, phone, cable, property taxes, house and car insurances? The most terrible thing I have found is, the very elderly have no idea, of the long reach of, the ramifications of the HST. I read where it said, there has been a big rise in, the number of seniors becoming homeless. BC now, has the highest number. How are low income people going to survive? Campbell and Hansen say silly things such as, it's only $45 more a year. However, when you add up every increase, a partial reimbursement won't cut it. I feel a sense of, impending disaster for the poor. I am worried about my 86 year old neighbor, who can't afford to buy meat. If there is HST on heat and all the other house hold services, I don't see how she will survive Campbell and Hansen.