The Cincinnati Reds paid Bailey, that's for sure. Six years and $105 dollars is quite the paycheck for a No. 3 starter.

Homer Bailey (AP Photo)

The Reds have time to figure out if he's worth it, but fantasy baseball owners are still playing their own game when trying to assess Bailey's true value. He runs the risk of being a pitcher owners believe was paid too much, therefore underperformed. That could lead to changes in perception about his performance.

That performance in 2013 is already overlooked. Bailey ranked 20th among starting pitchers according to our Roto Rater, just .06 points behind Washington's Stephen Strasburg. Bailey seemed to break though last season with a career lows in ERA (3.49) and WHIP (1.12) and career highs in innings (209) and strikeouts (199). He has two no-hitters the last two seasons and finally looks like the first-round pick the Reds drafted in 2004.

There's part of the problem. Owners expected this kind of performance much earlier from Bailey, who turns 28 in May. Bailey had some Strasburg-like hype around him coming up, at least in Cincinnati. He received a standing ovation in his first start, then went 25-23 with a 4.89 ERA from 2007-11.

It's been better of late, but the Reds still shelled out for a pitcher who is 24-22 with a 3.58 ERA the last two seasons. That, at least, can partially be explained. Bailey had a run support average of 4.05 last season, which ranked 58th in the majors.

The keys to continued success for Bailey lie in his low HR/9 rate, which was at a career-best 0.86 last season. He allowed just seven HRs in 96.2 innings at home. Bailey also enjoyed a career-low 15.8 pitches per inning, the first time that number dipped below 16 in a full season. If those two things continue and Bailey gets a little more run support, there's SP1 potential.

What does the Fantasy Source think? We believe. We projected him to finish 16-10 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 201 Ks. Yet he fell to the ninth round in our latest Mock Draft, which was conducted Feb. 17.

While the Reds might have paid too much, owners can take advantage of this draft bargain in 2014.