Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Will the Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi finally become the man to wrestle down President Museveni?Or will President Museveni finally put his new Prime Minister down to his place?These questions appear difficult to give answers especially because politics is dynamic and keeps changing. But some clear picture seems to emerge about the internal strife in the ruling NRM party and especially the role of Mr Mbabazi. Several Movementists [as they call themselves] have cried foul about the rift that Mbabazi is causing in the party but the boss, Museveni, has acted dumb.

Will he remain dumb forever given that the man he so much trusts and describes as Mr Clean seems to nurse real interest in the seat? Only time will tell but signs are that Mr Clean could soon turn out to be Mr Abominable.Here is why?Notwithstanding the cajoling of party MPs in a recent retreat at Kyankwazi, NRM faces serious questions from within.

Several anti-Mbabazi forces are coalescing. And Mbabazi is not relenting. He has told some young party MPs and his loyalists that he had dedicated himself to serving NRM and Museveni, therefore; it was only proper that he becomes President with the support of Museveni. He is maneuvering his way. Part of the maneuver is looping Museveni into his troubles.

While MPs genuinely want him like Kutesa and Onek to pay for his alleged role in the oil bribery, Mbabazi has managed to convince Museveni that the MPs were not just after him but the ultimate target was Museveni. The Prime Minister is so shrewd that he has ensured that the political intelligence information received by the President is largely from the spies sympathetic to him. And the result is that Museveni has often sided with Amama. But this has further widened the wedge between Amama and the MPs. But because the President listens to Mbabazi, the political tensions between Mbabazi and the other party leaders is likely to be extended to Museveni.

And it has begun in parliament with the demand that all ministers named in the oil bribery step aside. This position is now being fought by Mbabazi who has looped in the President. They seem to have temporarily succeeded. For how long; it’s hard to tell.

With Speaker Rebecca Kadaga appearing determined to make her own political statement, Mbabazi, who clandestinely fought her election as Speaker, might not enjoy the best of times as Leader of Government business in the House. And the MPs appear to be on her side.

While this would have been Mbabazi’s cross to carry, trouble for NRM is that Museveni has made it look like his cross as well and therefore; the party’s burden. His approach could be informed by the desire to keep the party cohesive but the consequences appear to be dramatic. Clearly, Mbabazi’s work methods show that if he fails to become President, then he goes down with Museveni.

What happens if MPs insist that Mbabazi must give way? Of course Museveni will be tempted to disregard parliament. And what would have been the message to the international community about respect and independence of different arms of government?The negative vibes will have been sent. With the new world order, no one can afford to be law unto themselves.In his defence of Mbabazi, the President has often argued that the man is not corrupt. Parliament is to probe the bribery allegations, so what will Museveni say if the probe reveals that actually Mr Clean is a big fraud? The implication will be that Mbabazi is corrupt with the knowledge of the President. Some unpalatable news to the international community again, I guess.

And questions are also being asked: How come that Mr Clean was named in the NSSF-Temangalo saga? How come he is also named in the oil saga? And why is Mbabazi named and not, for instance, ICT minister Ruhakana Rugunda?

Is President Museveni also aware that Mbabazi suffocated the computerization of the army payroll? The deal to computerize the UPDF payroll and to avoid ghost soldiers was worth US dollars 11million and up to date, nothing has been done. Who ate the money and why? Is Mr Museveni also aware that ESO bought three houses in London for its operations but the houses are now reportedly in the names of Mr Mbabazi? Sources say one time, disgraced deputy ESO boss, Emmy Allio travelled to London and wanted to stay in one of the houses to cut costs since they belonged to the organization he worked for but the man was turned away because he did not have permission from Mbabazi. The former journalist tuned spy relocated to another property but received similar treatment.Is that a man Museveni should vouch as Mr Clean? Is Museveni aware that Mbabazi’s radio station in Kanungu was reportedly meant for ESO?

If Museveni wants Mbabazi as his successor, their approach could sweep both of them out of the political scene especially if they start by antagonizing the institution of parliament. In these days, when even hardcore dictators end up hiding in culverts like Libya’s Gaddafi did, you just can never know what political mistake will mark your downfall. For Museveni, at least for now, it seems his obsession with Mbabazi against all conventional wisdom could kick up a storm that will shake his hold onto power. It should have occurred to Museveni that his word alone, these days does not convince his party. Most often, as he and Mbabazi did in Kyankwazi, money is paid out to MPs to soften their stand on contentious issues.Bogus approach if you asked me. To keep the MPs silent, more money will have to be used. Hehe… the economic crisis won’t make it sustainable.Let us watch this 9th parliament keenly. They might surprise us.

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

There is more than meets the eye in the current noise about oil. First, it’s coming from the ruling NRM party. Secondly, the manner in which it’s coming is acidic if not unpalatable to the cohesion of the NRM party. The NRM MPs have a notorious and unenviable history, of voting with their “stomachs” than brains on salient national issues. But the oil debate seems to suggest that some MPs are beginning to sense the folly of hoodlum politics.The question is: What is happening in the NRM politics? Why is the center falling apart?I have a few tips.

The government story is that foreign powers especially the US are interested in regime change in Uganda. According to two senior ministers I have spoken to on confidentiality terms, the US is sponsoring civil society organisations and political parties to cause regime change. The ministers believe that the monies are channeled through the Deepening Democracy program. For starters, this program supports growth of democracy and gives money to any political party but NRM [if the ministers are right] has since rejected the money. The government also believes that some of the vocal party MPs could have been drafted into the donors’ scheme to “sabotage” the ruling party. True or falls, that is not the only reason why the oil debate is causing waves.

The biggest players in the NRM politics have eaten to their fill. In this poor economy, they have the money. They have the connections. But they don’t have the ultimate power—the presidency. Some are yearning to taste it but President Museveni is still obsessed with it. And Museveni is trying to play games with those interested, who, apparently, see that time is running out on them.

Because Museveni is not clear on his succession, a number of his colleagues are positioning themselves. The Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi is largely seen as interested in the presidency. In fact many believe that he is Museveni’s favoured one.

However, those familiar with Museveni’s methods say he could be using Mbabazi as a trick for him to remain relevant in the party. Museveni is aware that Mbabazi is loathed in his own party. He is also hated by the majority of the citizenry. So by appearing to push Mbabazi, sources say Museveni is causing uneasiness in his party that will ultimately make him a uniting factor deserving of continuity. By the time Mbabazi comes out to seek Presidency, not many would want to touch him even with a long stick. But Mbabazi will have also built a small support base just enough to cause headache to other contenders.

And Mbabazi has gone full blast destroying anyone else he sees as interested in succession. Yet by doing this, he has denied himself the necessary political blocks.

But by playing the old age divide and rule tricks, Museveni; appears to be unaware of modern political dynamics. For instance, because there is no clear succession debate in the party, several contenders have encroached on Museveni’s long time exclusive constituency—the military. For long, Museveni spread a theory that it was no longer tenable for anyone to govern Uganda without military knowledge and support.

For that reason, the current NRM presidential contenders are investing in the military in preparation for their time in the presidency. For instance, Mbabazi is reported to be building his own power base in the army, intelligence and the Police. He was reportedly prompted to this partly by the unfriendly relationship he enjoys with the some bigwigs in the UPDF High Command especially Generals Kahinda Otafiire and David Tinyefunza.

Sources say, using huge money, Mbabazi has been able to build rapport with the Chief of Defence Forces Gen. Aronda Nyakairima and Brig. Henry Tumukunde. The other soldiers on his side are Maj. Gen. Silver Kayemba and Maj. Gen. Robert Rusoke.In the Police Force, Mbabazi is said to be enjoying a working relationship with Francis Rwego and Asan Kasingye.

While Mbabazi and his lieutenants in the army still play loyal to the Commander-in-Chief, the danger of these silent maneuvers is that Museveni can’t rely on them if the political tide changed.

There is too much anxiety and infighting in the army because of the various camps involved. Some officers loyal to Museveni alone reportedly face hard times. Such people include the First son Muhoozi Kainerugaba who commands the elite Special Forces Group.

Sources say the Inspector General of Police Maj. Gen. Kale Kayihura is a loner. His only support is President Museveni. In fact reports suggest that Mbabazi’s camp wants him out of the IGP position.An insider says most times Kayihura, who is aggressive in quelling Opposition activities, is in tears during his private moments.

He reportedly laments that he dedicates himself to serve the NRM but he is fought by the very system he struggles to defend in public. “I have so many enemies in the Opposition but even my own party officials fight me. I wish I had pursued my career in law,” a source quoted Kayihura as having said. Kayihura joined the bush in 1983 soon after his Masters in Law at the London School of Economics.

Apparently, even when we see the Police Chief aggressive against the Opposition, in him, he knows it’s a struggle that earns him no respect from anyone except Museveni.

But the bigger picture is that the cracks in the NRM are wider both in the army and the party. The military risk of these divisions is that in the event that an external force descended on Museveni, he would not count on the army as a strong pillar because of the intrinsic divisions and the education that most soldiers have been exposed to.The old Generals have less than 10 years to be active, therefore; it’s unlikely that the young educated soldiers would love to see Uganda go into ruins just to protect Museveni. These soldiers have degrees, young families, investments and future aspirations. And yes, some would love to become Army Commanders ahead of Muhoozi. So, although the army has been a Museveni political tool, the new order seems to make it increasingly difficult for the thinking army to be manipulated. If one million citizens protested in Kampala, Museveni will be shocked that his soldiers will not engage in a killing festival; that is why the suppression of protests in Kampala is high on the President’s agenda.

On the political front, only danger awaits Museveni in his own party if he does not come clear on his succession. The courage exhibited by the NRM MPs who challenge the party now, is unprecedented. Many of these MPs believe that Museveni is headed to the Robert Mugabe style. But unlike Mugabe who had populist programs for his country, Museveni has little to show to the common man. Secondly, Mugabe in his late 80’s looks fit and healthy yet Museveni’s stamina and health is a subject to whispers. And many see Museveni’s interest in power now as an interest to personally benefit from the oil resources. Many believe he has had enough.

Therefore; the MPs are not just vocal now. There are serious political forces within NRM responsible for the new wave. These forces, formerly close allies of Museveni, now see their man’s stay in power as a danger to himself and all those associated to him. And because Museveni’s ego is so fat that he can’t be told to leave power voluntarily, these forces want political pressure to bear on him. The prevailing economic hardships provide just a perfect opportunity to galvanise the citizens to see the folly of the politicians.Learning from the several interviews I have conducted with senior government officials, if Museveni does not drop his rigidity, we could, before 2016 see a major split in the NRM party. There will be a breakaway faction that will significantly eat into NRM’s numbers in parliament. Out of the more than 250 NRM legislators, dramatic events could lead at least 100 legislators to quit. Once this happens, it will be difficult for NRM to win many seats in the next parliament. I see the NRM defectors coalesce with the Opposition forces to form a Kenya like Rainbow Coalition that kicked out Moi from power. The oil debate is just the first episode in Uganda’s political soap Opera.

Thursday, 13 October 2011

Three senior ministers: Sam Kutesa, Foreign Affairs, John Nasasira, Chief Whip and Mwesigwa Rukutana, Labour havetaken leave of office to allow investigations against them over abuse of office and causing financial loss, runsmoothly.The trio was indicted by the Inspector General of Government in relation to the Chogm 2007 expenditure.And on Thursday, the said ministers appeared before the anti-corruption court but were set free on bail after spending hours in court. Relatedly, Mr Kutesa was also accused by parliament for allegedly taking a 17millon Euros bribe from an oil company. The MPs bade for his blood but the powerful Foreign Affairs minister put up a fight saying the documents were a forgery.

Whether forged or not, why is the storm so wild this time? The politics is involved. And yes, big money is at the center. Let us first look at it this way. I have been told by my sources that Kutesa is at the center because a foreign power suspected to be Rwanda is involved.

Apparently, sources say, senior journalist Andrew Mwenda was the first to land on these documents tabled before parliament because they were given to him by Rwanda’s Paul Kagame. This theory holds that Kagame is not in good books with Kutesa. The other news accounts say Mwenda was given these documents by an official associated with Eni, the Italian oil firm that was largely said to have been conned lots of money by Ugandan officials. This theory holds that Eni's interest was to find its way into the oil deals which had been taken by Tullow. It also holds that some Ugandan politicians connived with Eni.On the Kagame theory, the reasons are difficult to fathom but it’s said the Kutesa had beaten Rwanda in international politics, marketing Uganda’s image while Kigali’s reputation kept a downward trend especially with the assassination attempts to Rwandan dissidents.

Kagame was unhappy with Kutesa particularly because some of the Rwandan dissidents escaped from Rwanda through Kampala to other Capitals.Uganda kept denying that they were facilitating the dissidents to go through Kampala. Rwanda’s suspicion against Uganda intensified when her dissidents were even got with Ugandan passports.

Rwanda reasoned that Uganda must have been facilitating the dissidents. Uganda argued that most of the dissidents had lived in Uganda, therefore; know the terrain better, so they could use that to transit through the country.

I hear Kagame was not impressed and suspected the Kutesa might be mean with the truth. Relations between these two countries have been shaky. To make matters worse, Uganda continues to attract important international conferences much to the chagrin of Rwanda.

Suspicion is that Kigali opted to weaken Uganda’s international influence by attacking the mastermind—Kutesa. The documents [forged or not] were reportedly obtained and handed over to Mwenda, a known ally and PR consultant for Kagame.

Some say he was given the papers to do a story in his Independent Magazine to rattle Kutesa and the regime. For yet unknown reasons, Mwenda delivered the papers to both President Museveni and Kutesa.

An investigation was ordered by Museveni. The team comprised Inspector General of Police Maj. Gen. Kale Kayihura, Commissioner of Police John Ndgugutse and Andrew Mwenda himself. They travelled to Malta, London and Zurich. It’s not clear why Mwenda, a journalist, joined the Police in its investigations.While out, Gen. Kayihura reportedly recorded some bank officials on a pen recorder. The officials said they would not validate any documents. The recording was delivered to Museveni. That was last year.

Why is the matter now popping up? Apparently, it was sparked off by a fight between two oil giants: Heritage and Tullow.

Having withdrawn from Uganda and sold their oil wells to Tullow, Heritage reportedly wants a comeback. The firm, according to sources, started a campaign to expose Tullow as having bought its way into Uganda’s Oil by paying hefty sums of money to senior government officials. Indeed, money had exchanged hands.But the intention of Heritage was to put Tullow in bad light. They named government officials both politicians and bureaucrats who have reportedly harvested large sums of money from Tullow through kick-backs. Then they also extended a monetary inducement to some MPs to kick up a storm. However, Tullow picks the plan and responds by also supplying some MPs with evidence that Heritage wanted to avoid paying the Capital gains tax. They also helped MPs understand that the agreement to have arbitration between Uganda and Heritage in London was a ploy by Heritage to reap off the country.

Mind you, this war erupts when the oil licenses for Tullow were expiring. Heritage is reportedly financing the motion that no licences should be renewed until the necessary laws are in place. This motion would serve Heritage interests because then, they can come back and reapply.But Tullow is sponsoring the motion that the existing agreements should continue and that the arbitration between Heritage and Uganda should not be done in London. This is to knock out Heritage from the competition.

As this fight rages, President Museveni reportedly opted to open up the oil fields to various players. Museveni, according to sources, nurses the view that in order for him to stay in power without trouble when oil harvesting starts, there was need to give oil deals to firms from different key international players. His instruction to the then Energy minister Hillary Onek was the a Chinese firm CNOOC, Italian firm Eni, Heritage and Tullow which are all British and other French and Indian firms must each be given a share.

This in turn would insulate Museveni against international political pressure to cause governance reforms as these countries would vote for stability that allows them to siphon Uganda’s oil than for internal democratic reforms.

But a clash among the firms sparked off commercial maneuvers that saw several government officials sucked in to harvest the readily available bribes. Security officials got involved as well. Now the MPs have become the ready guns available to the oil giants to settle their scores. Most of the MPs have limited knowledge of what goes on in the oil sector except the usual cry from the civil society that the oil deals are made transparent.

But for political convenience [ to be seen by their electorate and settling elections differences] and for the financial inducements, the MPs are acting serious on this subject ignorant of the fact that the war they were fighting was not there war or the Ugandans because the oil will go cheaply anyway.

This has degenerated into a domestic political elbowing among several power centers in the ruling NRM party.

The focus now is on who is powerful than the other. Matters have not been helped by the simmering succession battle pitying the flamboyant and often arrogant Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi against other contenders like the First Lady Janet Muhoozi and Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, President’s first choice for his successor.

Kutesa has no interest in succeeding Museveni but he is known to be close to both Janet and Muhoozi, the latter being his son-in law. Kutesa is a rich man and could be decisive on who succeeds Museveni.

This is not going well for Mbabazi. So, the two get a conflict because if indeed Janet or Muhoozi wants to become President, Kutesa would not support Mbabazi.

Other reports show that Mbabazi believes he can succeed Museveni because the President’s plan is to introduce Muhoozi to the succession process gradually. In the meantime, there is need for a stop gap President who would not stand in the way of Muhoozi. This is the opportunity Mbabazi sees as his although others don’t trust in him.

Initially, Museveni was banking of the now disgraced Prof. Gilbert Bukenya but the man’s shrewdness and political mobilization became a problem. To make matters worse, Bukenya began to show interest in having connections with the military which is exclusively Museveni’s constituency. This made Bukenya in the eyes of Museveni as an ambitious man who could not be trusted. The idea was to have a Muganda before Muhoozi steps in thus the choice of the seemingly dull Edward Sekandi.

The calculation is that since the military runs NRM politics, Sekandi has no upper hand there, therefore; it’s assumed that when he is made a one-term President, the military would dictate until Muhoozi finally becomes President.

But because he is readily available to do Museveni’s bidding, Mbabazi believes he is the right successor. His shortcoming though is that he has no votes outside his family members and a few intelligence boys he uses. But Mbabazi has gone on a mission to damage all other contenders.

Because he suspects Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana to be Janet’s right hand men, he is reportedly attempting to soil their image before the public. A silent war rages on between Mbabazi and Janet even when they work in the same ministry with the former being the latter's boss at least by presidential political appointment.

Unfortunately, while the trio is rich, Mbabazi could have chosen a wrong rallying point against them. To accuse them of corruption and portraying himself as clean, Mbabazi could have underestimated the fact the public sees the entire NRM set up as a collection of thieves. In fact the public demand now is that Mbabazi should also be in the dock.

NRM fractured

This fight has generated a hostile internal political climate within NRM. Many fingers point to Mbabazi as the orchestrator of strife in the party. Now that Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana hitherto seen as close allies to the President have set a precedent of stepping aside to allow investigations against them, will Mbabazi tomorrow violate this given that he is married to controversy as well?

While the Kutesa precedent is good for crusaders of good governance, it’s a big challenge to the NRM and Museveni. Anybody appointed by the President will have to step aside if allegations are brought against them. With intrigue that borders to pettiness rampant in NRM, we are bound to see more dramatic scenarios, the kind of political scenarios that usually end regimes.

For now, from being seen as corrupt; Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana have become true crusaders and supporters of the fight against corruption in Uganda. No other minister will claim to have loved transparency and good governance than the trio who have voluntarily yielded to pressure and taken leave. They will now have the audacity to ask anyone else to step aside. But the headache remains with Museveni: if you’re perceived close allies have taken leave, why would you not ask the VP or Prime Minister to do the same?

Will party cohesion remain intact? Folks, we could finally see a regime change without a bullet being shot provided that the current infighting does not lead to assassinations and counter assassinations. Anything is possible though. And then the real oil curse will have taken residence in Uganda. Wonders never end anyway.

Three senior ministers: Sam Kutesa, Foreign Affairs, John Nasasira, Chief Whip and Mwesigwa Rukutana, Labour havetaken leave of office to allow investigations against them over abuse of office and causing financial loss, runsmoothly.The trio was indicted by the Inspector General of Government in relation to the Chogm 2007 expenditure.And on Thursday, the said ministers appeared before the anti-corruption court but were set free on bail after spending hours in court. Relatedly, Mr Kutesa was also accused by parliament for allegedly taking a 17millon Euros bribe from an oil company. The MPs bade for his blood but the powerful Foreign Affairs minister put up a fight saying the documents were a forgery.

Whether forged or not, why is the storm so wild this time? The politics is involved. And yes, big money is at the center. Let us first look at it this way. I have been told by my sources that Kutesa is at the center because a foreign power suspected to be Rwanda is involved.

Apparently, sources say, senior journalist Andrew Mwenda was the first to land on these documents tabled before parliament because they were given to him by Rwanda’s Paul Kagame. This theory holds that Kagame is not in good books with Kutesa. The reasons are difficult to fathom but it’s said the Kutesa had beaten Rwanda in international politics, marketing Uganda’s image while Kigali’s reputation kept a downward trend especially with the assassination attempts to Rwandan dissidents.

Kagame was unhappy with Kutesa particularly because some of the Rwandan dissidents escaped from Rwanda through Kampala to other Capitals.Uganda kept denying that they were facilitating the dissidents to go through Kampala. Rwanda’s suspicion against Uganda intensified when her dissidents were even got with Ugandan passports.

Rwanda reasoned that Uganda must have been facilitating the dissidents. Uganda argued that most of the dissidents had lived in Uganda, therefore; know the terrain better, so they could use that to transit through the country.

I hear Kagame was not impressed and suspected the Kutesa might be mean with the truth. Relations between these two countries have been shaky. To make matters worse, Uganda continues to attract important international conferences much to the chagrin of Rwanda.

Suspicion is that Kigali opted to weaken Uganda’s international influence by attacking the mastermind—Kutesa. The documents [forged or not] were reportedly obtained and handed over to Mwenda, a known ally and PR consultant for Kagame.

Some say he was given the papers to do a story in his Independent Magazine to rattle Kutesa and the regime. For yet unknown reasons, Mwenda delivered the papers to both President Museveni and Kutesa.

An investigation was ordered by Museveni. The team comprised Inspector General of Police Maj. Gen. Kale Kayihura, Commissioner of Police John Ndgugutse and Andrew Mwenda himself. They travelled to Malta, London and Zurich. It’s not clear why Mwenda, a journalist, joined the Police in its investigations.While out, Gen. Kayihura reportedly recorded some bank officials on a pen recorder. The officials said they would not validate any documents. The recording was delivered to Museveni. That was last year.

Why is the matter now popping up? Apparently, it was sparked off by a fight between two oil giants: Heritage and Tullow.

Having withdrawn from Uganda and sold their oil wells to Tullow, Heritage reportedly wants a comeback. The firm, according to sources, started a campaign to expose Tullow as having bought its way into Uganda’s Oil by paying hefty sums of money to senior government officials. Indeed, money had exchanged hands.But the intention of Heritage was to put Tullow in bad light. They named government officials both politicians and bureaucrats who have reportedly harvested large sums of money from Tullow through kick-backs. Then they also extended a monetary inducement to some MPs to kick up a storm. However, Tullow picks the plan and responds by also supplying some MPs with evidence that Heritage wanted to avoid paying the Capital gains tax. They also helped MPs understand that the agreement to have arbitration between Uganda and Heritage in London was a ploy by Heritage to reap off the country.

Mind you, this war erupts when the oil licenses for Tullow were expiring. Heritage is reportedly financing the motion that no licences should be renewed until the necessary laws are in place. This motion would serve Heritage interests because then, they can come back and reapply.But Tullow is sponsoring the motion that the existing agreements should continue and that the arbitration between Heritage and Uganda should not be done in London. This is to knock out Heritage from the competition.

As this fight rages, President Museveni reportedly opted to open up the oil fields to various players. Museveni, according to sources, nurses the view that in order for him to stay in power without trouble when oil harvesting starts, there was need to give oil deals to firms from different key international players. His instruction to the then Energy minister Hillary Onek was the a Chinese firm CNOOC, Italian firm Eni, Heritage and Tullow which are all British and other French and Indian firms must each be given a share.

This in turn would insulate Museveni against international political pressure to cause governance reforms as these countries would vote for stability that allows them to siphon Uganda’s oil than for internal democratic reforms.

But a clash among the firms sparked off commercial maneuvers that saw several government officials sucked in to harvest the readily available bribes. Security officials got involved as well. Now the MPs have become the ready guns available to the oil giants to settle their scores. Most of the MPs have limited knowledge of what goes on in the oil sector except the usual cry from the civil society that the oil deals are made transparent.

But for political convenience [ to be seen by their electorate and settling elections differences] and for the financial inducements, the MPs are acting serious on this subject ignorant of the fact that the war they were fighting was not there war or the Ugandans because the oil will go cheaply anyway.

This has degenerated into a domestic political elbowing among several power centers in the ruling NRM party.

The focus now is on who is powerful than the other. Matters have not been helped by the simmering succession battle pitying the flamboyant and often arrogant Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi against other contenders like the First Lady Janet Muhoozi and Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, President’s first choice for his successor.

Kutesa has no interest in succeeding Museveni but he is known to be close to both Janet and Muhoozi, the latter being his son-in law. Kutesa is a rich man and could be decisive on who succeeds Museveni.

This is not going well for Mbabazi. So, the two get a conflict because if indeed Janet or Muhoozi wants to become President, Kutesa would not support Mbabazi.

Other reports show that Mbabazi believes he can succeed MUseveni because the President’s plan is to introduce Muhoozi to the succession process gradually. In the meantime, there is need for a stop gap President who would not stand in the way of Muhoozi. This is the opportunity Mbabazi sees as his although others don’t trust in him.

Initially, Museveni was banking of the now disgraced Prof. Gilbert Bukenya but the man’s shrewdness and political mobilization became a problem. To make matters worse, Bukenya began to show interest in having connections with the military which is exclusively Museveni’s constituency. This made Bukenya in the eyes of Museveni as an ambitious man who could not be trusted. The idea was to have a Muganda before Muhoozi steps in thus the choice of the seemingly dull Edward Sekandi.

The calculation is that since the military runs NRM politics, Sekandi has no upper hand there, therefore; it’s assumed that when he is made a one-term President, the military would dictate until Muhoozi finally becomes President.

But because he is readily available to do Museveni’s bidding, Mbabazi believes he is the right successor. His shortcoming though is that he has no votes outside his family members and a few intelligence boys he uses. But Mbabazi has gone on a mission to damage all other contenders.

Because he suspects Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana to be Janet’s right hand men, he is reportedly attempting to soil their image before the public.

Unfortunately, while the trio is rich, Mbabazi could have chosen a wrong rallying point against the trio. To accuse them of corruption and portraying himself as clean, Mbabazi could have underestimated the fact the public sees the entire NRM set up as a collection of thieves. In fact the public demand now is that Mbabazi should be in the dock.

NRM fractured

This fight has generated a hostile internal political climate within NRM. Many fingers point to Mbabazi as the orchestrator of strife in the party. Now that Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana hitherto seen as close allies to the President have set a precedent of stepping aside to allow investigations against them, will Mbabazi tomorrow violate this given that he is married to controversy as well?

While the Kutesa precedent is good for crusaders of good governance, it’s a big challenge to the NRM and Museveni. Anybody appointed by the President will have to step aside if allegations are brought against them. With intrigue that borders to pettiness rampant in NRM, we are bound to see more dramatic scenarios, the kind of political scenarios that usually end regimes.

For now, from being seen as corrupt; Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana have become true crusaders and supporters of the fight against corruption in Uganda. No other minister will claim to have loved transparency and good governance than the trio who have voluntarily yielded to pressure and taken leave. They will now have the audacity to ask anyone else to step aside. But the headache remains with MUseveni: if you’re perceived close allies have taken leave, why would you not ask the VP or Prime Minister to do the same?

Will party cohesion remain intact? Folks, we could finally a regime change without a bullet being shot provided that the current infighting does not lead to assassinations and counter assassinations. Anything is possible. And then the real oil curse will have taken residence in Uganda.

Thursday, 6 October 2011

The buzz is on. The IGG has summoned Foreign Affairs minister Sam Kutesa, Chief Whip John Nasasira and Labour minister Rukutana Mwesigwa to answer charges of abuse of office and causing financial loss to the government.The D-day is October 13.And now the speculation is on high. Is it President Museveni now cracking down on corruption?Is it the succession struggle in NRM now becoming manifest? Is it about getting some big people from the West especially those close to Museveni to be charged so that the incarceration of the former naive or sometimes excitable VIce President Prof. Gilbert Bukenya does not raise suspicion?Or is the IGG Raphael Baku is now truly doing a job for country?First, I doubt that its about Museveni cracking hard on corruption as some of his lieutenants would like us to believe.Here is why. For Museveni to tackle corruption, he does not need a head-on approach with the suspects because if he did so, the buck will end up with him. And he knows it.It cant be that Kutesa, Nasasira, Gen. Otafiire, Rukutana, Jim Muhwezi etc are corrupt but the President is clean.All Museveni or anyone who cares about fighting corruption needs to do is to realise how the vice has permeated through all layers of our country and that the corrupt are not just thieves but they are equally powerful and able to cause political consequences to anyone who dares tackle it anyhow.The best would be to declare an amnesty to all the corrupt and then start on a clean slate.This would also insulate the President who is rumoured to own hotels and other property here and abroad.On the question of NRM succession, it possible that the charging of Kutesa and Nasasira could be linked. First, the flamboyant Prime MInister Amama Mbabazi is the usual suspect because the country has come to take note of his possesion of huge appetite for power. He is seen as a guy who masquarades as a statesman during day but enters dubious deals at night.And of course, the real bush war heroes have a low regard of the PM partly because of the way he carrries himself [he is a vindictive fellow] and also because of his strong attachment to hypocrisy.It is said that Mbabazi has been trying to smear anyone in NRM whom he perceives as a potential threat to his interest in the Presidency. In that regard, the charging of Kutesa and Nasasira [ they are known Museveni loyalists, rich and silent political mobilisers] could be linked to it. The two, more than Mbabazi, are capable of determining the political direction of this country especially through NRM politics. Sometimes, Mbabazi is said to have even tried to plant negative stories in the media about Salim Saleh and Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba. For starters, Mbabazi has a well developed and paid network of journalists and media managers who do his bidding.To make matters worse, Mbabazi seems to have his way because President Museveni is increasingly tired [ he doesnt admit though] of running the state, therefore; either by commission or ommission, he has trusted Mbabazi to influence the running of state matters. Its this leeway that the PM is reportedly using to build his personal influence even at the expense of the big man. Mbabazi is good at work and its this spirit that Museveni adores in him.However, away from Mbabazi a conspiracy theory is that Kutesa and Nasasira were charged because Buganda was getting jittery over Bukenya. But unless Mbabazi is that naive, he would not celebrate seeing the duo in the dock over Chogm yet he was a culprit. The duo was exonerated with him, so why would he then want them tried on a different filmsy charge? Well, Nigerians say in their movies that: Wonders never end.

Baku the man

It's increasingly plausible that Kutesa and Nasasira are victims of the IGG Rapheal Baku's personal scheme. He is faulted over selective prosecution by leaving out Mbabazi whom he once served as an aide. Many now believe Baku is Mbabazi's attack dog athough those who have had a chance to hear him lament, say the IGG is angered by this connection to Mbabazi. They say the man laments that when he served Mbabazi, he was often mistreated.So why is he eager to prosecute Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana? Some accounts say that Baku is foreseeing unemployement. He is leading the inspectorate of government in an adhoc capacity since the sometimes "possesed" Justice Faith Mwondha was kick-out.Baku's anticipation was that he would be elevated as the boss since afterall, he is Mbabazi's man. However, its now nearly three years and Baku is only acting IGG.Apparently, President Museveni was hesitant to confirm Baku after he received several reports on how the man runs the institution. About two month ago, a dossier was sent to Museveni detailing how Baku was suffocating investigations and how the man was running the inspectorate like a starved hyena. Matters were not helped by the fact that Baku takes executive decisions alone since non deputises him. All the deals end up in his office.Baku became so petty. Intrique defines the institution. Sources say two senior officers in the IGG started lobbying to take over from Baku who, clearly, is no better administrator.Some of these officers who include among others James Penywii [ head of operations and David Makumbi [director Ombusdman affairs] were reportedly being seen as potential successors to Baku having risen from within the ranks unlike Baku was deposited there as a political reward.But Baku is no fool. Sources say having seen that his chances of retaining the office were diminishing, he went for plan B: To make it hard for Museveni not to confirm him as the substantive IGG.The only way was by extending the corruption fight to his door step. Kutesa is a brother-in-law to Museveni and Nasasira, and Rukutana are too close to the First Family.Aware that the public is angry with the First Family over money-related issues, Baku could have gotten a perferct trick; show the public and donors that he can take on even the mighty.So when Museveni is presented with an issue of appointing a substantive IGG, it would be politically difficult to ignore Baku. The man from West NIle will have defeated internal office troubles [ job insecurity] by using Kutesa, Nasasira and Rukutana who are known to be Museveni's close allies and strategists.Museveni will have to summon his bush war mentality to sack Baku when the man is prosecuting those close to him. And the usually gullible Ugandan public and the sometimes cagy donor community would wonder why Museveni sacks Baku when the man is "seriously fighting corruption." That is called getting job secutity by hook or crook.Baku had been under pressure from the donor community and the local civil society activists who wanted to see evidence of the fight against corruption by the Inspectorate but his loyalty was with the regime. Its only after seeing that the regime was likely to ignore him like many others, that Baku chose to lean on the new world order of accountability and transparency championed by the donors and civil society.Its just increasing getting difficult to do naughty things and go away with it as it was in the past. But at least, Mr Baku will have managed to be naughty and get applause for it, if finally Museveni confirms him or the donors land him an international job after he is sacked.Its no party yet for him because trying Kutesa and Nasasira while leaving out Mbabazi could be the final nail on his wooden coffin. The public will then want to see him put the Prime Minister in the dock as well. We will also want to see him prosecute the First Lady Janet Museveni for her alleged role in the Gavi Funds. Now you can see where this Baku man is headed. But we just can never know.