NCAA Soccer – Non-Conference Review – SEC

The whole “mile wide, inch deep” analogy probably applies to the SEC right now. They’ve got twelve clubs in the RPI Top 100, but with what you’d call a very poor set of results against top teams, you’d have to figure a good many of those twelve clubs are going to start slipping as they lose matches. The only club with a real great win out of conference thus far is Florida with their win at Florida State. Next best? Georgia against UCF? Auburn and Ole Miss against Minnesota? Yeesh.

Yet, because of those high RPI numbers, you figure a handful of the SEC clubs are going to make it to the Dance out of the sheer incompetence of others below them. One or two others may punch their ticket with a big result against one of the league’s frontrunners. But what looks like a potential 7-8 bids could easily turn into half that if the wrong teams end up on the bubble with desultory non-conference results. It certainly bears watching as the temperatures drop and the heat rises in the league this season.

South Carolina

Current RPI – 4 Best Result – The win over Boston University is probably top of the list. Worst Result – The club’s only loss: a potentially costly one to Clemson. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 90%

The Gamecocks have been really good at beating traditionally good mid-majors this season, but their lack of non-conference heft is likely going to cost them a national seed unless they win most of their SEC matches. They’re probably good enough to avoid the bubble, but given some of the talent on this year’s club, why didn’t they schedule more aggressively out of the league?

Texas A&M

Current RPI – 16 Best Result – Crushing UCF, 3-0, at home. Worst Result – The 2-2 draw with Arizona could’ve easily been a loss. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 100%

The biggest question through non-conference play is if the Aggies can get it done away from home. They’re perfect in College Station but winless in two games on the road. A cynic might argue that the Aggies also didn’t win against the best two clubs on their non-conference slate. But the road worries won’t be really pertinent until the NCAA Tournament, as the club’s toughest games are all at home in the league. They’ll probably need to come close to running the table to get a high national seed.

Auburn

Current RPI – 19 Best Result – The 3-1 win against Minnesota. Worst Result – The inexplicable 2-1 loss to state rivals Samford. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 75%

Auburn might stay close to this spot if Furman, UC Irvine, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee all perform as expected in their respective league seasons. That’s not going to help them on the bubble though, so the Tigers may rue that opening night loss to Clemson. The Tigers almost always find a way to have the last laugh though, so they’ve got a great chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament after last year’s struggle.

Tennessee

Current RPI – 29 Best Result – Odd as it sounds, probably the 1-0 win against Tulsa. Worst Result – The loss against BYU might be fatal in November. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 55%

There’s not a lot of “there” there for the Lady Vols, unfortunately. Four relatively meaningless wins in the big picture with two losses against contenders and a bad loss to a BYU club that might be a bubble rival. The decision to schedule East Tennessee State late might be a smart one, but that ignores the fact that UT really needs to do well in SEC play to overcome its bad non-conference resume.

Florida

Current RPI – 31 Best Result – The 2-1 win at Florida State. Worst Result – The 2-1 loss to Oklahoma still burns. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 100%

Honestly, I expect this ranking to steadily climb as UF keeps winning and as their non-conference foes do as well. The FSU win ensures no bubble trouble, but being on the bubble at any rate would be a huge disappointment. Florida instead has their eyes on a high national seed, but their current ranking means there’s a lot of work to do to seal one.

Georgia

Current RPI – 34 Best Result – The 1-0 win against UCF might be what puts them over the top. Worst Result – The 3-2 loss to Long Beach State could undo them though. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 60%

It’s been mostly mission accomplished as far as the non-conference schedule is concerned. There aren’t any bad results, though they’ll obviously be hoping for Long Beach State to live up to their potential in the Big West. The problem is Georgia is largely banking on UCF to rise like a comet in the RPI to serve as their big non-conference result, which is far from guaranteed. The safe road is to just keep winning matches in the SEC.

Missouri

Current RPI – 36 Best Result – The draw with Northwestern? Yeah, that’s a problem. Worst Result – I don’t think the draw with Syracuse will be too helpful in the end. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 30%

Really, they had little margin of error with their non-conference schedule, and they didn’t really come through with flying colors. There aren’t any great wins and the club’s draws with Syracuse and perhaps Northwestern could hurt down the road. On paper, there’s a lot of downside with the non-conference slate, meaning Missouri’s going to have to come up big in the league to make it back to the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky

Current RPI – 41 Best Result – The win over Louisville, really by default. Worst Result – The clubbing at Washington’s hands in the opener. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 70%

First impressions tend to be lasting impressions, and it’s hard to shake that 4-1 loss to Washington out of the memory. The wins don’t add up to much, especially with Louisville looking to be a substandard side this year. The 3-2 defeat to Pepperdine was crushing on the day and could be very costly at the end of the season. They’ll probably be fine if they play to their potential in the league, but hopes of a national seed already look dashed.

Ole Miss

Current RPI – 43 Best Result – The win over Minnesota…if the Gophers are actually any good. Worst Result – That loss to Louisville looks very bad now. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 40%

The defeat to Louisville looks so much worse in hindsight as the Cardinals have sunk like a stone. They’ve largely done what they’re supposed to otherwise, including holding serve against an erratic Minnesota side. But the draw with Memphis might be a killer in the end if the Tigers can’t pull themselves together in AAC play. Mid-table in the SEC might not be enough if the Rebels can’t beat some top league teams.

Vanderbilt

Current RPI – 63 Best Result – The 2-1 win over Memphis. Worst Result – The 1-0 loss to North Texas might be the most telling OOC result. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 5%

Yeah, they aren’t on bottom of the league’s RPI table, but you’re going to have a hard time convincing me Vandy aren’t due for a big tumble down the table considering the context of their non-conference results. Their overall record seems grossly inflated by matches against the likes of Lipscomb and Chattanooga, and there’s very little to shout about in terms of wins. They’ll have to get it done in the league, but that looks like a big ask at this point.

Arkansas

Current RPI – 72 Best Result – I’d argue the win over Stephen F. Austin is better than the Texas draw at this point. Worst Result – The draw with Rice may haunt them later. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 50%

Arkansas’ record seems to be fraying at the edges a bit after the past few weeks. Their profile of wins doesn’t look too hot with Utah State and Oklahoma State struggling, while draws against Texas and Rice may hurt more than help in a few months. Everything about the Lady Razorbacks screams bubble team at this point, likely making for a tense second half of the season in Fayetteville.

LSU

Current RPI – 86 Best Result – The only win of any note is the 4-3 away victory at BYU. Worst Result – The loss to TCU may be a big nail in their coffin. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 35%

It looks grim in Baton Rouge. There was little meat on the bones in much of the early part of non-conference season, and LSU disappointed with losses to Rice and TCU and a draw with Stephen F. Austin. Unfortunately, BYU’s in a down season, meaning their win in Provo will likely have limited value in November. On paper, they have the talent to charge up the RPI with a strong league season. Then again, on paper, they shouldn’t be 4-3-1.

Alabama

Current RPI – 109 Best Result – We’re grasping for straws. The 2-0 win against UAB, maybe? Worst Result – The 2-2 draw against Middle Tennessee State was illuminating, unfortunately. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

There’s pretty much nothing there in terms of big non-conference results, with the club not logging a single positive result against any of the Big Eight conference clubs the team played in non-conference play. Oh, and Alabama State’s still to come on the non-conference slate, meaning that RPI is going to take another hit. Finishing in the RPI Top 100 might be a moral victory, but it’s still an uphill climb from here.

Mississippi State

Current RPI – 122 Best Result – Not much to choose from, but the 2-1 win over Louisiana Tech, almost by default. Worst Result – The 2-0 loss to South Alabama shows MSU still has a long way to go. Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

For what it’s worth, they at least don’t look as depressingly bad as they did last season. Wins over most of the regional minnows they’ve played marks a solid step forward, but perhaps most telling is a 5-1 defeat to an Iowa State team that should be in a comparable position to MSU at this point. They’ve got a chance a win or two in the league, but that RPI isn’t likely to budge upwards by season’s end.