The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues its fourth advisory for Tropical Depression 12, upgrading its forecast to a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for the Southeast Florida Coast from Vero Beach to Florida City. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. [National Hurricane Center, 8/24/2005]

In its sixth advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a hurricane warning for Southeast Florida Coast from Vero Beach to Florida City. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the East-Central Florida coast. The NHC expects Katrina to become a hurricane on Thursday before reaching the Southeast Florida coastt. In its discussion, The NHC indicates that Katrina has turned west in the past few hours and is expected to continue to move slowly on a westward track for the next 24 to 48 hours. The models continue to diverge significantly on where Katrina will head after entering the Gulf of Mexico. Tracks cover the coast from Mississippi eastward. The official forecast turns Katrina northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. One model indicates that Katrina will barely touch the east coast of Florida before moving north, while another model indicates Katrina will travel south of due west across South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: Near 26.0 N, 78.0 W., moving west at 8 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 50 mph, with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 1001 mb
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
West Palm Beach, FL: 40 percent
Panama City, FL: 9 percent
Gulfport, MS: 4 percent
New Orleans, LA: 3 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/24/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/24/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/24/2005]

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) repeats its hurricane warning for the Southeast Florida Coast from Vero Beach to Florida City. The tropical storm watch remains in effect for the east-central Florida coast. The NHC expects Katrina to strengthen into a hurricane before her center reaches Florida coast. Models are beginning to “agree” that Katrina will turn northward, although “there is still a notable spread.” The NHC predicts that Katrina will become a hurricane before landfall, will weaken while crossing the Florida peninsula, and then will re-intensify over the Golf of Mexico. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 26.2 N, 78.7 W
Direction and Speed: West at near 8 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
Estimated Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
West Palm Beach, FL: 64 percent
Panama City, FL: 11 percent
Gulfport, MS: 5 percent
New Orleans, LA: 4 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005]

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expands the hurricane watch westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana and eastward to the Florida-Alabama border, and states that a hurricane warning likely will be required for portions of the Northern Gulf Coast later tonight or Sunday. Landfall in southeast Louisiana is likely in “a little under” 48 hours. (In fact, Katrina will make landfall in 32 hours .) According to the NHC, Katrina will likely strengthen, and may become a Category 5 hurricane before landfall. Katrina likely will move west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Models continue to diverge, with some indicating Katrina will turn northward, while others indicate Katrina will shift westward. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 380 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River Direction and Speed: West at 7 mph Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph, with higher gusts Estimated Central Pressure: 945 mb Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 45 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
Panama City, FL: 12 percent
Gulfport, MS: 20 percent
New Orleans, LA: 21 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005]

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina, still a Category 4 hurricane, continues to intensify and grow larger. The NHC reiterates the hurricane warning for Louisiana to Florida, and expands the area covered by a tropical storm warning. It warns further that, “While the details of the landfall intensity cannot be known at this time… Katrina will be a very dangerous hurricane at landfall…. It must be emphasized that the exact landfall point cannot be specified and that Katrina is a large hurricane that will affect a large area,” warns the NHC. “NHC now expects Katrina’s path to move north later today.” Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 275 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 10 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 145 mph, with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 935 mb
Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 85 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
Panama City, FL: 11 percent
Gulfport, MS: 26 percent;
New Orleans, LA: 29 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

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