For Your Consideration: Early 2011 Oscar Predictions

For Your Consideration: Early 2011 Oscar Predictions

EDITORS NOTE: This story was written in March, 2010 forecasting the Oscars a year in advance. For an updated list of predictions as of January 2011, click here.

With the Oscars now a four day-old memory, the time has come for the final edition of this column. I can’t say I’m particularly saddened. From the Toronto International Film Festival’s unofficial awards season kick-off in September to last weekend’s Olympics-delayed ceremony, it’s been six long months of speculation and anticipation, and I’m ready to move on (as I’m sure many of you are as well). While I’m sure I could rant on about the somewhat expectedly mediocre ceremony (though Sandra Bullock’s speech, Tina Fey and Robert Downey Jr’s banter and about one third of Steve & Alec’s antics were certainly highlights), and the predictability of nearly every award winner (save most especially “Precious”‘s adapted screenplay win over “Up In The Air”), is there really any point anymore? The moment “The Hurt Locker” was thankfully read as this year’s best picture of the year, my awards season was over.

However, there is one final thing I’d like to do with this column before letting it rest in peace until September. It’s been an annual tradition for me (and most Oscar bloggers) to take an ignorant stab at the following year well before there’s any substantial evidence in its regard (Sundance aside, that is.. at this point last year we did already know where Mo’Nique was heading). Surprisingly, it’s not always a total crap shoot. While last year I might have been significantly off the mark with “Taking Woodstock,” “Nine” and “Invictus” (then “Mandela”), I did manage to properly predict 5 acting nominations. More over, the year before – if you include alternates – I nearly got half of the major nods right. So before this column lies dormant until the fall… let’s give it a shot, with everyone please keeping in mind that this is more or less a fun little game and not one that I would take too seriously.

There’s certainly plenty to choose from, as 2010 looks to be a diverse and potentially quite fulfilling year for cinema.

We’ve got promising films from relative newcomers following up well-received first or second projects like “The American,” directed by “Control”‘s Anton Corbijn, written by Rowan Joffe and starring George Clooney as an assassin who hides out in Italy for one last assignment; “The King’s Speech,” directed by “The Damned United”‘s Tom Hooper and starring Colin Firth as King George VI as he tries to overcome his nervous stammer; “Never Let Me Go, Mark Romanek’s long-awaited follow up to “One Hour Photo,” and starring Carey Mulligan, Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan and Sally Hawkins; and “The Town,” Ben Affleck’s second directorial effort, starring Jeremy Renner, Rebecca Hall and Affleck himself.

And that’s honestly just scratching the surface. With the expanded ten nominees, “Toy Story 3” stands a pretty reasonable chance at a best picture nod. And I mean, who knows, maybe Jodie Foster’s Mel Gibson dramedy “The Beaver” will go over in a way opposite to that which I expect.

One interesting thing to note before getting into the flat out predictions: Best actor could actually be a near total re-do of this year. There’s Jeff Bridges in “True Grit,” George Clooney in “The American,” Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” and Jeremy Renner in “The Town.” All of which at this point seem like performances that could very well go way of the Oscar. But again, at this point, we kind of know nothing. And with that in mind, I present my major category 2011 Oscar predictions, one year in advance:

EDITORS NOTE: This story was written in March, 2010 forecasting the Oscars a year in advance. For an updated list of predictions as of January 2011, click here.

Best Picture:HereafterInceptionThe Kids Are All RightThe King’s SpeechLove & Other DrugsMiralSomewhereToy Story 3The Tree of LifeThe Way Back(alternates: Rabbit Hole; True Grit; The Social Network; Fair Game; London Boulevard)

Best Director:Sofia Coppola, SomewhereTerrance Malick, The Tree of LifeChristopher Nolan, InceptionJulian Schabel, MiralPeter Weir, The Way Back(alternates: David Fincher, The Social Network; Clint Eastwood, Hereafter)