YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Hertha Berlin (202581) and Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch — but don’t sit on their improved play on the defensive end of the pitch. While surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches under Labbadia’s stewardship. The improved play from the Old Lady should also be attributed to the January signing of former RB Leipzig forward Matheus Cunha who has stepped in to score four goals in his eight matches with the club — but he is a doubt for this match as he recovers from a concussion. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season. While Borussia Dortmund has seen their expected goals output decline in the second half of the season, their play on defense has improved with manager Lucien Favre adding a third defender to his backline. Over their last ten matches, the Black-Yellows are holding their opponents to just 0.87 xGA per contest while not allowing higher than 1.40 expected goals in nine of those matches. Borussia Dortmund has conceded just 11 goals at home at Signal Idun Park which is the lowest mark in the Bundesliga.

FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. With the Total set in the 3.5 range, expect another lower scoring game. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Hertha Berlin (202581) and Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.

REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Their expected goal differential of +0.79 net xG is 4th best in the league over that span. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch. While scoring just 1.31 expected goals (xG) and surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has averaged 2.03 xGF and allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches with an impressive +1.11 expected goal differential under Labbadia’s stewardship. Two additions in the transfer window have also played a big role for this side with Matheus Cunha and Krzysztof Piatek. While Cunha is a doubt to play this week as he deals with a concussion, that should ensure that Piatek starts up top alongside captain Vedad Ibisevic. The pricey Polish star from AC Milan scored the final goal in their win over Augsburg last week in the third minute of extended time after 90 minutes had passed. Hertha Berlin has scored at least two goals in six straight matches while tallying 16 goals over that span. They go back on the road where they have not lost in seven matches which includes an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig two matches ago. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. That match was before the arrivals of Labbadia as manager along with Cunha and Piatek as transfers — and while Cunha may not play in this match, the betting market has not caught up to the dramatic improvements Die Alte Dame has made in the second half of the season. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (202565) and Bayer Leverkusen (202566). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W21-D4-L4) has won fourteen of their last fifteen matches across all competitions after their 5-0 win over Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday. Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L7) has won six of their last seven contests with their 1-0 win at Freiburg last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians did not take their foot off the accelerator after defeating Borussia Dortmund in their previous contest which gave them a commanding 7 point lead in first place in the Bundesliga standings. They dominated Dusseldorf with manager Hansi Flick still using his first-string players. Bayern Munich now needs just three more victories to clinch their eighth straight Bundesliga title — and Flick seems like he wants his team to maintain their momentum to prepare for the return of the Champions League in August. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is W16-D2-L1 in their nineteen matches under Flick while averaging 2.98 expected goals which is over half a goal better than their 2.45 xGF mark in their ten matches in league play before Flick’s appointment. The Bavarians have won seven straight matches on the road with 2.68 expected goals scored in those matches. Since the return to play last month, Bayern Munich has scored 13 times. Bayer Leverkusen was listless in their effort last week against Freiburg as they managed only 0.43 expected goals while allowing them a 0.78 xG. That was the second straight match where Die Werkself lost the expected goals battle as they were dominated by Wolfsburg by a 1.71 xGF - 3.00 xGA mark in their previous contests. Bayer Leverkusen has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on the defensive end of the pitch as they have allowed goals in seven of their last nine matches along with nine of their last twelve contests. The better teams in the league have particularly exposed the Die Werkself backline as Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach combined for 5.29 expected goals.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich should be motivated to avenge two straight losses to Bayer Leverkusen as they followed up their 3-1 loss to them in February of 2019 with a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture this season on November 30th. Both those matches were before Flick’s appointment to the Bavarians. Expect another higher scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Bayern Munich-Bayer Leverkusen FS1-TV O/U Special with the Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (202565) and Bayer Leverkusen (202566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

PICKS IN PROGRESS

Jun 07 '20, 12:06 AM

Play Type: Premium Pick

Boxing |
Felicia Spencer vs Amanda Nunes

Play on: Amanda Nunes -490 at jazz[Won: $100]

Game Analysis

Amanda Nunes (19-4) is tentatively scheduled to defend her Featherweight Championship around 12:10 AM ET early Sunday morning against Felicia Spencer (8-1). Nunes is the queen of MMA as a reigning two-belt champion with her also owning the Bantamweight Championship. Nunes has defeated many of the biggest names in her career in the octagon including Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, and Holly Holm. She comes off a victory via a decision last December 19th against Germaine de Randamie at UFC 245. This will be her first defense of the Featherweight title at the 145-lb weight class. Our Best Bet is for Nunes to win this fight inside the distance which Bovada lists at -175. Nunes is a huge money-line favorite to win this fight overall priced in the -600 range. That is simply too expensive. Nunes has achieved a victory inside the distance in sixteen of her nineteen wins with thirteen of them coming from a knockout or TKO. She has not lost since 2014 as she enjoys a ten-match winning streak. She has a big advantage with both her athleticism and experience in this fight over Spencer. She may be the most feared female striker in the history of the UFC with her accurate and straight punching style. She also has a solid submission game with three of her victories coming from that route. Nunes also sports a strong defensive skill set. She uses arm-stiffs to defuse clinches especially early in the fight. Spencer needs to get this fight onto the mat — but Nunes has takedown defense rate of 80%.

Felicia Spencer’s lone loss was to Cyborg in UFC 240 last July. Nunes destroyed Cyborg in a 51-second first-round knockout in December of 2018. Spencer rebounded on February 29th of this season at UFC 250 with a first-round knockout over Zarah Fairn. But Spencer’s quality of opponents is questionable in her limited professional experience. Her victory over Megan Anderson is tempered by the fact that she was dominated on the mat by Holly Holm despite wrestling not being her strong suit. And that same Anderson overwhelmed Fairn in grappling. Spencer does not lack for grit and toughness. With her Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and Taekwondo blackbelt, she wants to get this fight to the ground. But she is not a phase-shifter with her tactics which likely means she will absorb punishment. Spencer does not dodge shots as much as she bulls through them — yet she was getting pounded by a 4:1 rate against Holm in the last round of that fight. That is not an encouraging recipe for success against such a dynamic striker as Nunes. And while Nunes may be more comfortable at the Bantamweight 135-lb class, Spencer weighed 1.3 pounds below the 145-lb limit in her last fight at the 145 pounds. Spencer’s style is similar to Raquel Pennington who Nunes wore down with repeated kicks to the leg that wore her down. Even with a great chin, Spencer looks likely to succumb to Nunes’ superior striking abilities. Our Top Overlay Bet on the proposition that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Nunes win this fight via a KO/TKO. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Pick Released on Jun 06 at 08:21 pm

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Frank Sawyer started Hollywood Sports over 20 years ago and has been helping clients win more of their bets every day since. He got his name from being an active writer-producer in the movie industry. He quickly got a name for himself as a sharp bettor. Before you even knew it many of LA’s biggest names started to Frank. He quickly realized there is a bigger market outside of the A-listers who crave winning picks on a daily basis.

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