Iowa: Mojo versus manpower

DES MOINES – As the battle for Iowa enters the home stretch, the race appears to be breaking down along a simple fault line: Mike Huckabee’s momentum and passion versus Mitt Romney’s organization.

What one has the other lacks.

Story Continued Below

After a prolonged inspection of the candidates in the race and a period of waiting to see who else might run, many Hawkeye State Republicans seem to have narrowed the contest to a choice between two former governors.

All the mojo seems to be with Huckabee – a Newsweek poll released Friday shows him ahead of Romney by a staggering 39 percent to 17 percent margin.

But Iowa veterans warn that while Huckabee is all the rage, it’s almost impossible to win in Iowa without an organization – and Huckabee’s is skeletal. “A poll is a poll in Iowa,” observes Ed Failor Jr., a longtime Iowa Republican and anti-tax leader based in Muscatine who is currently undecided. “But it’s different than turning out voters on caucus night.”

Supporters of Huckabee say his appeal is deep and fundamental. The Southern Baptist minister hits conservative Iowans in the heart, and his views, as well as his modest background, are much like theirs.

“I think at this stage of the game, I can be a little more pure to my heart,” says Mark Lundberg, chairman of the Sioux County GOP. “At some point, I may have to become pragmatic, but Huckabee is a little closer to where I am as a Christian conservative.”

And it’s not just the Arkansan’s consistency on cultural issues such as abortion that is appealing, Lundberg said. It’s also his Christian spirit.

“I hate to use the words ‘compassionate conservative,’” Lundberg says with a chuckle, but “he has a lot of sympathy for people in need.”

Forty percent of those likely to show up on Jan. 3 to participate in the Iowa caucuses are self-identified evangelicals. Polls show Huckabee has established a solid lead among this constituency and that his backers are more committed than those of Romney.

The apparent move by Iowa’s evangelical base came after the community took a look at Fred Thompson and decided to take a pass, Republicans here say. If the bumper sticker for Democratic activists in Iowa in 2004 was “Dated Dean, Married Kerry,” it may be “Flirted with Fred, Fell for Huck” among social conservatives this time.

Beyond Huckabee and Romney, “all the others seem to be in the back of the pack,” observes Steve Scheffler, head of the Iowa Christian Alliance.

And even Scheffler, who has been skeptical of Huckabee’s viability, marvels at what he calls “an amazing political success story.”

His organic surge is “a testimony to the power of the evangelicals and pro-life Catholics in the Republican party,” Scheffler says.

But beyond Thompson’s failure to launch, Huckabee’s rise also speaks to the hunger in the party for a Romney alternative.

“People were looking for a conservative they felt comfortable with,” Lundberg adds.

Kevin Alons, chair of the Woodbury County GOP, notes that “Romney has been saying all the right things, socially and fiscally.”

“But is he truly authentic and how reliable will he be on the issues?” Alons asks.

Then there is Romney’s Mormon faith. Romney insisted at a press conference here Friday that the intent of his widely covered speech Thursday was not to reassure social conservatives. But less than a month away from the caucuses, it’s clear some do need reassuring.

Alons said he read the coverage of Romney’s address in Texas and came away impressed – but added that he still has some worries about the issue, though he wouldn’t be specific.