What’s the matter with Missouri?

Thomas Frank hit the best-seller list in 2004 with “What’s the Matter with Kansas? How Conservatives Won the Heart of America.” Frank examines Kansas’ evolution from a hotbed of progressivism to a bedrock of conservatism. His thesis is that conservatives have successfully employed social issues such as abortion and a phony notion of heartland authenticity to convince working class Kansans to vote against their own economic interests.

Kansas went for McCain over Obama by 57-42 percent in 2008, for Bush over Kerry by 62-36 percent in 2004, for Bush over Gore by 58-37 percent in 2000, for Dole over Clinton by 54-36 percent in 1996, and for Bush over Clinton 39-34 percent in 1992.

By comparison, neighboring Missouri has gone Republican in the last three elections as well, but by far smaller margins. In 2008, the state barely went to McCain by a fraction of a percentage point. Bush won over Kerry by 53-46 in 2004, and Bush over Gore by 50-47 percent in 2000. And it went Democratic in the previous two elections, for Clinton over Dole by 48-41 percent in 1996 and for Clinton over Bush by 44-34 percent in 1992.

So you might expect that if Missourians were to vote on a referendum on Obamacare, it would be a pretty close-run affair. In fact they did vote on Tuesday in party primaries and on Proposition C, which explicitly rejects elements of the federal health care law, including the individual mandate.

The results were beyond lopsided. The measure passed by a margin of 71-29 percent. Those are Kansas numbers.

Democrats have tried to explain away the results. They claim the Republican primary was more competitive and drew more attention than the Democratic primary. Since a significantly higher number of Republicans voted in the supposedly contested primary, it was natural that the results on Proposition C would be skewed.

But as the results show, top GOP races were no more competitive than Democratic races, with the exception of two uncontested races on the Democrats’ side. If the premise is wrong, the explanation may be confusing cause and effect.

That is, more people may have voted in a Republican primary that was every bit as dull as the Democratic primary because they were casting a vote in favor of Proposition 3. That would confirm the findings of Democratic pollsters James Carville and Stan Greenberg.

Their Democracy Corp survey asked voters nationwide whether they planned to vote for Democrats in November “so we don’t jeopardize the chance of an economic recovery” or vote Republican “to protest the direction the economy is heading.” Independents said they plan to cast protest votes by a margin of 51-37 percent.

Implicit in Frank’s thesis is the idea that something is wrong with Kansas. But the results in Missouri and in the Democracy Corps poll suggest instead that a growing number of Americans think there is something wrong with the Democratic Party and its policies.