The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own:

ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered.

Bear in mind German constitutional court ruling regarding ESM, continued disagreement regarding the necessary prerequisite of prudential banking supervision before another Spanish bail-out. And the increasing likelihood of a Greek exit from the EMU.

Note the German finance ministry’s unambiguous reiteration of its resistance to ESM-related policy yesterday.

What will happen then:

Draghi seems likelier to “talk” about an ESM banking licence at the press conference, but no more.

Expect him to “stick to the script” staying within the ECB’s narrow mandate.

Given the significant hurdles involved regarding the ESM, a “re-loading” of the SMP seems the most realistic short-term policy option available to the ECB.

But it needs a tweak.

I’m sticking with the idea that LTROs are dead. We may see a further loosening of collateral conditions (e.g. through lower haircuts).