eMOTION! REPORTS.com Archives - GM IPO: An Analysis/Timeline of Global Machinations to Effect Capture of The US Auto Industry

An industry/media advisory utilizing deconstructuve analytics to describe the market forces, both contrived and benign, that would go on to play a major role in a massive change to the global automotive landscape in the late 2008 to early 2010 timeframe; not the least of which was the bankruptcy of GM and capture by China’s financial sector..

A GM IPO looms, but none should view this as evidence of the US auto industry on the path ot restoration with the exception of Ford Motor Company, who wisely heeded recommendations to remove themselves from discussions and activities surrounding federal loan guarantees. Indeed, a tragedy of unimaginable magnitude in terms of US industrial base stability has occurred, but we are happy to say, not irreversible...

We daresay, however, that the aforementioned ’market forces’ at work here are, in our opinion, among those that helped bring about the stunning dissassemblage of the UK’s Carroll Group.

’Good Morning: Just over a year ago, we presented in English and Francais the analysis “National Security, Economic/Industrial Base Ramifications of Possible Renault-Nissan/Ford and GM/Toyota Meldings. Unless Action Taken Immediately, U.S. May Lose Control of its Manufacturing Base, Joining Great Britain” with a sense of urgency. http://www.emotionreports.com/downloads/pdfs/R11.pdf http://www.emotionreports.com/downloads/pdfs/Renault2FrG050508[2].pdf

In light of announcements from the Kirk Kerkorian camp on Friday, June 30th (calculated to hit on the eve of the July 4th weekend/week, thus minimizing analytical opportunities and public exposure) our assessment of matters is simple: Not much has changed, other than a shifting of targets. Same players, same strategy, same potentially negative – with profundity –impact on the country’s industrio-economic stability.

Key phrases to remember in the 2005 analysis were: 1. “Our hope is that making these discussions visible may shape a different outcome.” 2. “We are hopeful that all parties understand that so much foreign investment in the U.S. will be under the watchful eye of Congress. Specifically, CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in The United States).” 3. “When the last British-owned car manufacturing company, MG Rover (Lotus and Morgan being trade intensive, not manufacturing, shops) turned out the lights this month for what was left of the company after acquisition of its technological and intellectual resources to the Chinese, the country took a step back in time. Despite efforts by the Iranians to take control and continue production in Britain, China’s ownership of the IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) for key product caused them to end negotiations. As of right now, and for all intent and purposes, England has no true manufacturing base.” 4. “General Motors and Ford are far too important to economic and national security to allow their fates to be determined in Paris, Tokyo, Beijing, Las Vegas or the financial district of New York.” Fast forward to June 30th, 2006. Having failed in his attempt to gain control of Ford Motor Company – at least to the extent he hoped beginning with Ford of Europe – thanks to the as yet unassailable power of the Ford family’s Class B super-weighted shares and an apparent souring of the otherwise receptive attitude towards him by the Fords, Ghosn was forced to shift his attention to GM. In his mind, it represented a softer target, that is to say, no family ownership to contend with.

The Orchestration of Artificial Urgency

The almost unreasonable demands upon GM (Ford as well) by Wall Street analysts within key investment banking, credit rating and media entities to meet their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders by either declaring bankruptcy, move 10s of thousands of jobs offshore, get acquired, or face continued downgrading of market valuation, was intended to create an atmosphere

An industry/media advisory utilizing deconstructive analytics to describe the market forces, both contrived and benign, that would go on to play a major role in a massive change to the global automotive landscape in the late 2008 to early 2010 timeframe; not the least of which was the bankruptcy of GM and its subsequent capture by China’s financial sector.

A GM IPO looms, but none should view this as evidence of the US auto industry on the path to restoration, with the exception of Ford Motor Company, who wisely heeded recommendations to remove themselves from discussions and activities surrounding federal loan guarantees. Indeed, a tragedy of unimaginable magnitude in terms of US industrial base stability has occurred, but we are happy to say, not irreversible...

We daresay, however, that the aforementioned ’market forces’ at work here are, in our opinion, among those that helped bring about the stunning disassemmblage of the UK’s Carroll Group.

’Good Morning:

Just over a year ago, we presented in English and Francais the analysis “National Security, Economic/Industrial Base Ramifications of Possible Renault-Nissan/Ford and GM/Toyota Meldings. Unless Action Taken Immediately, U.S. May Lose Control of its Manufacturing Base, Joining Great Britain” with a sense of urgency.

In light of announcements from the Kirk Kerkorian camp on Friday, June 30th (calculated to hit on the eve of the July 4th weekend/week, thus minimizing analytical opportunities and public exposure) our assessment of matters is simple: Not much has changed, other than a shifting of targets. Same players, same strategy, same potentially negative – with profundity –impact on the country’s industrio-economic stability.

Key phrases to remember in the 2005 analysis were: 1. “Our hope is that making these discussions visible may shape a different outcome.” 2. “We are hopeful that all parties understand that so much foreign investment in the U.S. will be under the watchful eye of Congress. Specifically, CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in The United States).” 3. “When the last British-owned car manufacturing company, MG Rover (Lotus and Morgan being trade intensive, not manufacturing, shops) turned out the lights this month for what was left of the company after acquisition of its technological and intellectual resources to the Chinese, the country took a step back in time. Despite efforts by the Iranians to take control and continue production in Britain, China’s ownership of the IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) for key product caused them to end negotiations. As of right now, and for all intent and purposes, England has no true manufacturing base.” 4. “General Motors and Ford are far too important to economic and national security to allow their fates to be determined in Paris, Tokyo, Beijing, Las Vegas or the financial district of New York.”

Fast forward to June 30th, 2006. Having failed in his attempt to gain control of Ford Motor Company – at least to the extent he hoped beginning with Ford of Europe – thanks to the as yet unassailable power of the Ford family’s Class B super-weighted shares and an apparent souring of the otherwise receptive attitude towards him by the Fords, Ghosn was forced to shift his attention to GM. In his mind, it represented a softer target, that is to say, no family ownership to contend with.

The Orchestration of Artificial Urgency

The almost unreasonable demands upon GM (Ford as well) by Wall Street analysts within key investment banking, credit rating and media entities to meet their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders by either declaring bankruptcy, move 10s of thousands of jobs offshore, get acquired, or face continued downgrading of market valuation, was intended to create an atmosphere of inevitability that Wagoner and company would succumb to subsequent “surprise” suggestions by Kerkorian and crew.’

eMOTION! REPORTS.com Archives - GM IPO: An Analysis/Timeline of Global Machinations to Effect Capture of The US Auto Industry

1.
eMOTION! REPORTS.com
Automotive/Aerospace Industries Systemic Intelligence
www.emotionreports.com
Automotive Industry Analysis:
Special Edition For University of Michigan
/Center For Automotive Research
41st Annual Management Briefing Seminars,
Traverse City, Michigan August 7-11, 2006
Update, August 6, 2006 (July 3, 2006, May 5, 2005 analyses)
Kerkorian and Renault-Nissan Overtures to GM Have Overtones of Hostile
Takeover; Success Would Represent Clear Threat to Industrio-Economic
Stability and Therefore National Security; Potential Emergence of New
Global Automotive Industry Architecture
“There are those within industry and government who… may recommend a full
range of responses. These would include a nationalization of Ford…”
GM's emergent show of strength, both financially and from a leadership standpoint, is
causing the Ghosn/Kerkorian camp to shift attention away from GM and back to Ford.
According to our internal sources, "Ford's precipitous fall, against GM's (media driven)
"rise toward recovery," will lead an attention shift toward Dearborn... especially if the
markets artificially pump GM enough for some profit taking. Renault-Nissan management
is finding it increasingly hard to make the case for GM, in light of the increasingly ripe
Ford, especially Ford of Europe."
A serious strategy has emerged to overcome the power of the Ford family's Class B
Shares, making the potential for outright capture all the more real. Astoundingly, Daimler-
Chrysler and Deutsche Bank are inevitably part of the Ghosn strategy for the Ford
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

2.
acquisition. The involvement of these two entities should be expected, however, for the
simple reason this "organizational fusion" begins with Ford of Europe. And Europe is their
home and backyard.
Conversely, VW and BMW are automatically involved, again, by virtue of same turf
occupation.
"Ford America's capture would be inevitable, or as was stated last year 'a fait accompli' as
a result of no true operational, managerial, financial separation between it and FOE," notes
our analyst. "This constant reality has existed since World War II, wherein Ford European
operations continued without disruption and under Ford control, unlike GM. This lack of
separation now renders it quite vulnerable to the Ghosn machinations, designed to
acquire a market distribution network larger than that currently possessed by Renault-
Nissan. They have a need, this fills the bill."
The DCX involvement is not to be seen as malicious or predatory -- there is enough of that
elsewhere to go around -- but merely as a business opportunity taken advantage of; albeit
one that has potential of being extremely lucrative; for the time this industry architecture
remains viable.
“Our world will be one of micro-turbines, Williams micro-jets,
Quasiturbines, hybrids and high-capacitance capacitors.”
"What will also emerge from this FOE, Renault-Nissan, DCX, BMW, VW fusion/symbiosis is
the growing realization that quite unnoticed, and if noticed, dismissed as inconsequential,
is an extraordinary shift in the industry technology and supply/resource base that will be
potentially controlled by Japan and China."
What might that be?
"The rise of turbine/rotary configuration powerplants capable of routine bio-fuel utilization
to an extent that renders the dinosaurs extinct again. Honda's recent announcement of its
rather excellent advancements in micro-turbines and the scientific/engineering community
weighing in favorably on the viability of the Saint-Hilaire Quasiturbine (Google "Quasiturbine
White Paper; Quasiturbine Livre Blanc; fr.), supports this contention powerfully. And, since micro-
turbines produce power when fueled; i.e., fuel goes in, power comes out, fuel cells are
rendered moot, as would fossil-based fuels. (Hybrid systems, as represented by Toyota's
Synergy Drive and PAICE Hyperdrive will play a continuing, although not primary, role in
vehicle propulsion methodologies.) Our world will be one of micro-turbines, Williams
micro-jets, Quasiturbines, hybrids and high-capacitance capacitors.
"An instantaneous resource-based power/influence exchange would occur between the
oil-producing countries and those with the most arable land, and China rules in that latter
category. Honda has wisely designed the micro-turbine in a way that the Chinese cannot
easily reverse-engineer the technology, except at great expense. Thus, their role as a fuel
provider is locked, while Japan wears the mantle of creator, developer, assigner and
maintainer of core power-unit manufacturing operations around the world."
In our estimation, nationally self-contained manufacturing all but ceases to exist in this
scenario, with Europe and the US reverting to pre-industrial status. The consumer/service
economy therefore becomes reality. Consequently, we may well measure time and events
not as A.D. or B.C., but as P.I.A./P.I.E. (Post-Industrial America; Post-Industrial Europe).
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

3.
Our analyst further noted, "University of Michigan Professor Jerry Meyers spoke of a "de-
nationalization" of the auto industry nearly a decade ago. He wasn't quite sure of the
timeline, but truth to tell, it is upon us. And unless, let's create a word here, 'anti-
denationalization' strategies are put in place immediately (this would fall under protection
of industrial base policy) it will become a pervasive reality. A reality induced by a
paradigm shift of unimaginable impact."
One would rightly conclude that the collective industrial psyche will be challenged,
shocked and reshaped in a way not seen since jet-propelled, 540 mph Me-262s tore
through the skies of Europe and Allied bomber formations in 1945. In an instant, all
concerned recognized that reciprocating engine/propeller driven aircraft were doomed as
a principle component of military and commercial fleets.
Federal Concerns and Echoes of Nationalization
There are those within industry and government who, upon realization that the above
scenario represents an unavoidable outcome should countering moves not be crafted and
implemented, may recommend a full range of responses. These would include a
nationalization of Ford -- at present the most vulnerable component of the US and
European industrial base -- immediate implementation of Ryan-Hunter and military.
There is, of course, historical precedent for the latter as was the case with Japan in 1937.
As noted in a June 24, 2004 commentary of Prof. Thomas P.M. Barnett, formerly of the
Naval War College, quoting Dr. Sheila Ronis of Walsh College in Troy, Michigan: " Global
war begins with economic crises such as the major Problems in Japan, the overheating of
the China economy due to its insatiable, and now unstoppable appetite for raw material,
and the continued instability in the Middle-East, compounded by the uncertainties of Iraqi
War outcome. We are right now contending with macro-economic trends that are
outstripping and outpacing any efforts to keep them in check. Crises not dissimilar to
these in the 1930s directly led to World War II. Very similar and very dangerous. [Dr. W.
Edwards] Deming once told me that Japan went to war because they thought their
population was about to starve. Their backs were to the wall, and they felt they had no
choice but to pursue this course in view of then existent US economic policies.
"War is often the inevitable aftermath of negative economic forces on nations, and we
have to be mindful of the difficulties facing multiple nations simultaneously, now, as
then..."
What is clear is the need to view the prevailing state of affairs, be they Ghosn/Kerkorian
overtures designed to capture GM and/or Ford, or the prospect of a regional war becoming
a global one, from a holistic, systemic standpoint. Indeed, it is the only human means by
which viable solutions will emerge.
###
Next Week: An analysis of a new currency, not the Euro, the "Auto"...
Copyright 2006. Fair use by qualified media organizations, academia and government is hereby authorized with
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74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
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4.
eMOTION! REPORTS.com
Automotive/Aerospace Industries Systemic Intelligence
www.emotionreports.com
Media Advisory:
July 3, 2006
Kerkorian and Renault-Nissan Overtures to GM Have
Overtones of Hostile Takeover; Success Would Represent
Clear Threat to Industrio-Economic and National Security
“Having GM under the control of non-U.S. firms is not the answer. Why?
Because many foreign entities buy U.S. assets not to use them, but to
dismantle them.”—National Security Strategist Dr. Sheila Ronis
GM Chairman Rick Wagoner Photo: GM
Good Morning:
Just over a year ago, we presented in English and Francais the analysis “National
Security, Economic/Industrial Base Ramifications of Possible Renault-Nissan/Ford
and GM/Toyota Meldings. Unless Action Taken Immediately, U.S. May Lose Control
of its Manufacturing Base, Joining Great Britain” with a sense of urgency.
http://www.emotionreports.com/downloads/pdfs/R11.pdf
http://www.emotionreports.com/downloads/pdfs/Renault2FrG050508[2].pdf
In light of announcements from the Kirk Kerkorian camp on Friday, June 30th
(calculated to hit on the eve of the July 4th weekend/week, thus minimizing
analytical opportunities and public exposure) our assessment of matters is simple:
Not much has changed, other than a shifting of targets. Same players, same
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

5.
strategy, same potentially negative – with profundity –impact on the country’s
industrio-economic stability.
Key phrases to remember in the 2005 analysis were: 1. “Our hope is that making
these discussions visible may shape a different outcome.” 2. “We are hopeful that all
parties understand that so much foreign investment in the U.S. will be under the
watchful eye of Congress. Specifically, CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment
in The United States).” 3. “When the last British-owned car manufacturing
company, MG Rover (Lotus and Morgan being trade intensive, not manufacturing,
shops) turned out the lights this month for what was left of the company after
acquisition of its technological and intellectual resources to the Chinese, the country
took a step back in time. Despite efforts by the Iranians to take control and
continue production in Britain, China’s ownership of the IPR (Intellectual Property
Rights) for key product caused them to end negotiations. As of right now, and for
all intent and purposes, England has no true manufacturing base.” 4. “General
Motors and Ford are far too important to economic and national security to allow
their fates to be determined in Paris, Tokyo, Beijing, Las Vegas or the financial
district of New York.”
Fast forward to June 30th, 2006. Having failed in his attempt to gain control of Ford
Motor Company – at least to the extent he hoped beginning with Ford of Europe –
thanks to the as yet unassailable power of the Ford family’s Class B super-weighted
shares and an apparent souring of the otherwise receptive attitude towards him by
the Fords, Ghosn was forced to shift his attention to GM. In his mind, it
represented a softer target, that is to say, no family ownership to contend with.
The Orchestration of Artificial Urgency
The almost unreasonable demands upon GM (Ford as well) by Wall Street analysts
within key investment banking, credit rating and media entities to meet their
fiduciary responsibility to shareholders by either declaring bankruptcy, move 10s of
thousands of jobs offshore, get acquired, or face continued downgrading of market
valuation, was intended to create an atmosphere of inevitability that Wagoner and
company would succumb to subsequent “surprise” suggestions by Kerkorian and
crew.
Make no mistake, Ghosn was in on the gag, as it were, and had in fact been in
discussions with Kerkorian (Ghosn had been in Dearborn twice between January
and May of 2005 for Ford negotiations, and another visit within a 4 week timeframe
subsequent) of varying depths for months prior to this past Friday’s events. The
proposed interaction between Tracinda and Renault-Nissan with GM as the target
for acquisition took on urgency as Ghosn came under fire as a direct result of
steadily decreasing U.S. market performance on the part of Renault-Nissan.
Ghosn himself was in danger of removal and their “response” to the “invitation” by
Kerkorian to participate was a move of self-preservation if not desperation.
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

6.
What should be transparent is that the moves by Kerkorian in league with Ghosn’s
Renault-Nissan is nothing less than a hostile takeover –albeit non-traditional – of a
core component of the U.S. industrial base by an offshore entity, aided and abetted
by a homegrown “fifth column”; i.e., Tracinda and elements of Wall Street.
The strategy agreed to by Ghosn and Kerkorian entails the conjoining of Tracinda’s
9.9% stake in GM, plus a minimum 25% -- not 20% -- and maximum 30% minority
stake in GM. The hope is that the GM board, already feeling pressure from the
company’s banks and individual shareholders will agree to the 30% stake Renault-
Nissan will ask to acquire, and when combined with Kerkorian’s 9.9, results in a
39.9% stake in GM.
This not the strategy of those merely securing a stake in a viable target, but of an
outright capture. Notably, the plan will work at 25% or 20%.
GM Under Attack
It is safe to say the outright attacks on the character of GM, not the least of which
was that promulgated by the New York Times Tom Friedman (who by the way is
possessed of the intellectual capacity to know better) can be characterized as a
“softening of the beach head” in preparation for “invasion” by the triumvirate of
Kerkorian, Ghosn and various elements of the financial sector.
The more ominous aspects of this proposed takeover have already been articulated
by National Security Analyst Dr. Sheila Ronis, whose work as lead investigator for a
Congressional investigation into the erosion of the U.S. industrial base chaired by
Illinois Congressman Don Manzullo is now complete (a copy of the report is
available) noted last year that “Should Renault and Toyota gain control of Ford and
GM, it is doubtful that the bulk of manufacturing would remain here,
manufacturing historically crucial to the base. There is much truth to the
contention ‘As goes GM and Ford, so goes the economy.’
“In addition to the irrecoverable damage to the supplier infrastructure, the removal
of intellectual properties activities such as design and engineering would quickly
follow. In short, this country loses its capacity and capability to produce anything;
an untenable situation for those charged with national security.”
The Detroit News’ Dan Howes echoed this concern in his July 1 analysis: “Whether
GM, stung by its global forays, and Renault-Nissan, evidently hungry for another
audacious play, place new bets is still to be determined. But given the track record
of these deals, it’s hard to see how any of it would be good for Detroit or the
American industrial independence – unless the French and the Japanese let the
Americans take the lead.
“Right. Or shall we say, non?”
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

7.
Former American Motors Chairman and current U of M Professor Gerald Meyers
evidently sees immediate removal of the American executive suite should this play
reach the end zone: “Carlos Ghosn has a reputation of being a very strong CEO. I
can’t imagine him taking a back seat to Rick Wagoner.”
Although we completely disagree with Prof. Meyers’ assertions in support of a
sustainable service/consumption –oriented economy; i.e., no manufacturing capacity
of significance needed, we nevertheless agree with him on the above, as evidenced in
last year’s analysis.
Ghosn’s absolute rejection of a power sharing position with Bill and Edsel Ford is
precisely what killed the Renault/Ford conjoining – at least for now.
The conclusion of matters in current contention is however forthright: The
Kerkorian/Ghosn overtures to GM represent an outright takeover attempt by a
foreign entity, and that is a completely unacceptable state of affairs.
As was quoted in the previous analysis, “Average Americans are still not cognizant
that a state of economic war exists between the U.S., Europe and Asia. Sun Tzu’s
contention that ‘economic war is always waged first’ could not be more correct,
especially in a world wherein predatory economic strategies can be deployed with
astonishing speed. The assumption, however, that picking off the United States
through the dismantling of its core industrial components is helpful to their cause
couldn’t be more wrong. This means that the number one customer for goods
produced around the world, especially Europe and Asia, goes away. Perhaps not
immediately, but the profoundly negative impact would not be long in coming. And
considering the inextricable linkages between global economies, the whole world,
really, goes into recession, if not depression.”
GM, Boeing Economic Impact
Boeing C17 Globemaster III Image: Boeing
In a recent conversation, Dr. Ronis viewed the circumstances surrounding the
future of GM, Ford and Boeing’s superlative C-17 Globemaster military airlifter, as
analogous.
“It was not until Congress realized the inseparable, if not symbiotic connectivity’s
between preservation of the C-17 and the defense industrial base (of which GM and
Ford are undeniable components) as represented by 702 suppliers in 42 states and
billions in economic impact, did they take immediate and laudable action.
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

8.
“One must consider GM and Ford as being much, much larger C-17 programs with
massive industrio-economic footprints whose demise or severe contraction in
operational scope would bankrupt the country. Thus, the concern would no longer
be the offshoring of jobs, but no less than the co-opting of national security.
In forthcoming testimony before the U.S./China Economic and Security Review
Commission later this month in Dearborn, Ronis will discuss many of these issues
inclusive of the state of the base.
“The Country must understand the systems nature of the erosion of the U.S.
military industrial base and its largest sister the overall industrial base, because
they are not separable. The continued vitality of both is critical to our ability to
remain a Super-Power. Conversely, GM, Ford, Delphi, Northrop-Grumman,
Boeing and Lockheed-Martin share the bottom of the industrial base.
Ronis further notes that “Having GM under the control of non-U.S. firms is not the
answer. Why? Because many foreign entities buy U.S. assets not to use them, but to
dismantle them.”
Business As Usual
Last year, we expressed a belief that Kirk Kerkorian was becoming more cognizant
of the economic devastation that would result from a “sliced and diced” GM. As of
right now, we seriously doubt that age and experience has wrought a change in
business operating procedure.
Should this proposed capture of GM go forward, the immediate result would be
exactly that which transpired in the aftermath of the so-called “merger of equals”
between Daimler-Benz and Chrysler. That is to say, thousands of irreplaceable core
manufacturing jobs being consigned to the realm of anti-matter.
GM’s board and Rick Wagoner now find themselves at a pivotal point in history
wherein their decisions can either initiate a much needed reversal in the course of
industrial base erosion or accelerate it to a state of irreversibility. Were the latter to
occur, the country will find itself daily moving away from sustainable economic
growth and viability to a state more traditionally described as third world. Indeed,
a state meeting the latter criteria described by Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett’s “core”
and “gap” scenarios in his New York Times best seller “The Pentagon’s New Map:
War and Peace in the 21st Century.”
They must act, and act now, for the good of the country… or Congress will set new
rules that no one wants.
###
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248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
mstokes@emotionreports.com

9.
Report compiled by eMOTION! REPORTS.com staff and its consultants. Fair use is
hereby authorized for media, academic, government and corporate entities for research
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Copyright 2006, All Rights Reserved
eMOTION! REPORTS.com (www.emotionreports.com) is an automotive/aerospace industries research
and analysis site that targets professionals within the academic, media, corporate and government
sectors. It has also created an environment wherein white papers and other scholarly research can be
presented to a broadened, yet still very defined, audience, inclusive of the recently presented
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248-695-0009 248-695-0006 (fax)
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10.
Curriculum Vitae, Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D
Consultant, eMOTION! REPORTS.com
Dr. Sheila R. Ronis is President of The University Group, Inc., a management
consulting firm, and think tank specializing in strategic management, visioning,
national security and public policy. She is also Director of the MBA/MSM Program at
Walsh College. She previously taught “Strategic Management and Business Policy”,
“Managing the Global Firm” and “Issues of Globalization” in the MBA programs at
the University of Detroit Mercy and Oakland University. She is very involved with the
Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) at the National Defense University in
Washington, D.C. and participates in their annual National Security Strategy Exercise.
In June, 2005, she chaired at ICAF the Army’s Eisenhower National Security Series
Event, “The State of the U.S. Industrial Base: National Security Implications in a
World of Globalization.” Her B.S. is in Physics and Mathematics. Her M.A. and Ph.D.
are in Organizational Behavior and General Social Systems Theory from The Ohio
State University.
Dr. Ronis founded and directed the Institute for Business and Community Services
at The University of Detroit to assist the U.S. automobile industry in becoming
globally competitive by bringing systems and strategic management principles to the
industry.
Joining the University of Detroit from Ameritech Publishing, Inc., where she was a
Strategic Planner, she worked at AT&T and Michigan Bell before that, helping the
corporation during its divestiture years. Prior to her Bell System tenure, Dr. Ronis
directed a national energy program for the U.S. Energy Research and Development
Administration (ERDA - now the Department of Energy), in Oak Ridge, Tennessee
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
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11.
and Washington, D.C. While an administrative associate at The Ohio State
University, she chaired the Legislative Affairs Committee, acting as the legislative
liaison between the University Senate, the Ohio General Assembly, the Governor’s
Office and the Ohio Board of Regents. Dr. Ronis began her career working at
North American Rockwell in Columbus, Ohio.
Dr. Ronis has worked with many organizations; public, private, large, small, profit
and nonprofit. These include: General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company,
the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, the Federal Laboratory
Consortium For Technology Transfer, U.S. Institute of Peace, USAID, Ameritech,
USCAR, the Interstate Commerce Commission, the Institute for National Strategic
Studies at the National Defense University, the National Science Foundation, and
The State Council of The People’s Republic of China.
Dr. Ronis began working with the U.S. automotive industry in 1985. This included
Ford Motor Company as well as several automotive suppliers. In 1988, she worked
with the Cadillac organization at General Motors to fix the Allanté two years after
start of production. She then became involved in the Cadillac 2000 project on
behalf of the Chief Engineer of Cadillac, Mr. Robert L. Dorn. In 1993, Dr. Ronis
helped to revamp the General Motors corporate intelligence function. From 1994 to
1996, The University Group, Inc. became a captive supplier to General Motors
working on a number of corporate functions. Since that time, Dr. Ronis has
continued to work with GM on a number of projects. In 2000, Dr. Ronis was asked
to assist the Ford Motor Company in improving its corporate intelligence function,
and strategic visioning processes.
Dr. Ronis began working in the national security community during the divestiture
years of the Bell System that included her participation in the decisions related to
the security of the nation’s telecommunications infrastructure.
For more than a decade, Dr. Ronis has been working directly with the U.S.
Department of Defense and the national security community. Her first assignment
was teaching “grand” strategy as it is viewed in global business to the Management
Faculty at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. She was also
involved in the development of the first Strategic Leadership Symposium at the
Army War College under the command of Major General Paul G. Cerjan. In 1993,
Dr. Ronis began her work with the National Defense University (NDU) in
Washington, D.C. She has played a role in bringing industrial knowledge of the
transportation industry to the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) and
NDU and currently serves on the NDU Foundation Board of Directors as Vice
President.
In 1996, Dr. Ronis was asked to deliver a paper on “National Security and the
Theories of Dr. Deming” by the W. Edwards Deming Institute. The paper was read
by General John M. Shalikashvili, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and was
widely distributed throughout the Pentagon as an example of applying strategic
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12.
systems thinking to matters of national security. At DoD, Dr. Ronis has worked
with the Air Force Special Operations Forces at Robins Air Force Base and Wright
Patterson Air Force Base, and the U.S. Army Tank-Automotive and Armaments
Command (TACOM). She was asked to write a “white paper” about the need to
define and retain Department of Defense core competencies and what happens when
outsourcing occurs. At the Pentagon, she has worked in support of projects at the
Office for the Secretary of Defense on visioning for the Department, and has
supported the work of the Defense Reform Task Force. Her work for the Secretary
of Defense included a written operational definition of the Revolution in Business
Affairs that was used to support the Revolution in Military Affairs for the
Quadrennial Defense Review in 1997. In addition, she was a team leader as a part
of the “red team” that critiqued the Joint Vision 2010 work for the Joint Staff, J-7.
In the last few years, she has also supported the work of the Hart-Rudman
Commission on U.S. National Security for the 21st Century.
Dr. Ronis has also worked on behalf of the economic and transportation elements of
national security supporting the original work to create USCAR, the United States
Consortium for Automotive Research, and its major initiative, the Partnership for a
New Generation of Vehicles. In addition, she helped the Federal Laboratory
Consortium for Technology Transfer (FLC) with a master plan and vision for the
future. Her work with FLC included a paper on how national laboratories and
scientific researchers can comply with the Government Performance Results Act
(GPRA).
Known as a systems security strategist, Dr. Ronis has authored 163 papers. Her
paper delivered at the Pentagon entitled, “Economic Security is National Security:
A Discussion of Issues Surrounding the Global U.S. Corporation” suggested a way
to re-think industrial base policy. Her paper presented at the U.S. Army War
College, “Visioning for the 21st Century: A Process for National Security” outlined
the way in which an interagency activity might produce a more holistic national
security strategy for the United States. Her paper on “Shaping in the 21st Century”
delivered at the Army’s conference at the Walker Institute of International Studies
examined the new roles that the Department of Defense would need to play in the
Post Cold War era. Recently, she supported the work of the Department of
Commerce Office of Strategic Industries and Economic Security with a study of the
U.S. Army’s Theater Support Vessel released in December, 2003. She recently
completed a study with DOC on the Air Force C-17.
Dr. Ronis also has published the scenario “Crisis on Asimov” in Automotive
Industries Magazine, and the Financial Times Automotive World, in London that is a
strategic futurist’s look at transportation in the world of 2085 that uses a
Department of Defense visioning process. In addition, Dr. Ronis worked with the
late Dr. W. Edwards Deming including co-authoring the paper “Preparing Cadillac
for the 21st Century: Systems and Strategic Thinking.” Dr. Ronis is Vice President
of the Board of the National Defense University Foundation. She is the former Vice
Chairman of The Ohio State University Alumni Association. She is a former board
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13.
member and life member of The Economic Club of Detroit. She is a life member of
the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA), and the Association of the U.S.
Army. She is also a life member of the Phi Kappa Phi Honor Society. Dr. Ronis is a
frequent guest on the NBC affiliate in Detroit and several other Detroit area TV and
radio news programs. She has published in National Defense and publishes articles
on-line from time to time at www.emotionreports.com. Her book, Timelines into the
Future: Strategic Visioning Methods for Government, Industry and Other
Organizations will be published by The University Press in early 2007. Her most
recent papers include, “Transformational Recapitalization: Rethinking USAF
Aircraft Procurement Philosophies” was published in Defense AT&L in November,
2004 and “Erosion of the Industrial Base and its Issues of National Security: A
Systems Approach to Congressional Action” presented at the National Defense
Industrial Association conference in November, 2005 and the Outlook 2006 US
Industrial Fabrics Institute conference in April. Her recent study of the national
security implications of the erosion of the U.S. industrial base for the U.S. House of
Representatives Committee on Small Business was released in May, 2006.
###
Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, Most Versatile Airlifter in The World Image: Boeing
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
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14.
Backgrounder, Myron D. Stokes
Publisher, eMOTION! REPORTS.com
eMOTION! REPORTS.com Publisher Myron D. Stokes’ work as an industry
journalist with special emphasis on business and technology has been published in a
variety of major print mediums including the Detroit News, Changing Times
Magazine, Auto Week and corporate publications. Over the years, he has provided
major corporations and media groups with “deep background” analyses that have
helped shape the direction of some of the most significant news stories and industry
strategies
After outlining a strategy to expand industry coverage for Newsweek Magazine in
November of 1991, he worked in the capacity of industry correspondent and
investigative reporter. His reporting included in-depth assessments of the “shake-
up” at GM, the much publicized industrial espionage charges against former GM
supplier executive Dr. Ignacio Lopez; the hazards of doing business in China; the
viability of Electric Vehicles which centered on advanced battery technology in both
the private sector and military (Newsweek International edition); the difficulties then
facing Japan’s auto industry and the comeback of the Big Three (Newsweek Japan).
In recent years, he has covered some of the most recognized stories in automotive,
aerospace and general interest. These include the Kirk Kerkorian Chrysler
takeover attempt; the GM C/K truck controversy; the U.S./Japan trade issue
(Newsweek Japan) which required significant interaction with then Secretary of
Commerce Ron Brown; development of extensive severe weather meteorological
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15.
data for Newsweek cover story (4/95) on Airline Safety; investigative analysis of
possible collusion between the warring governments of Bosnia President Alijah
Izetbegovich and Serbia President Slobodan Milosevic along with uncovering of
plan to re-implement ethnic cleansing prior to Srebednicza massacre (6/95); and the
Oklahoma City bombing.
His ability to thoroughly and accurately report and analyze issues of substance
garnered himself and former Newsweek Detroit Bureau Chief Frank Washington
first place in the coveted Detroit Press Club International Golden Wheel Award for
Automotive Journalism in 1995. This competition, judged by professors from the
University of Nebraska School of Journalism, included entries from 110 journalists
in five countries. Business Week took second place. Stokes was also privileged to
function as acting Detroit Bureau Chief for Newsweek.
Stokes is near to completing research for a new book containing exhaustive analysis
of severe weather phenomena and their impact on flight operations since the dawn
of aviation. In fact, the book will provide the basis for research into a new
phenomenon, the Clear Air Vortex. The late University of Chicago’s Dr. Theodore
Fujita, long recognized for his work in destructive weather and responsible for
defining the downburst as well as the Tornado intensity scale that bears his name,
and The late University of Michigan’s Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Department Dr. Thomas Donahue (one of the original team of scientists gathered at
Woods Hole to design complete systems for the Space Shuttle in 1973) provided
valuable insights and knowledge to this undertaking. The working title is Turbulent
Sky.
The book will contain new information on several aircraft disasters and the role
severe weather may have played. Prominent among these is Delta 191, Northwest
255, AA 593, USAir 1066, Air Alaska and Challenger.
It is also of note that his pursuit of this project planted seeds in the entertainment
industry that led to three movies: Twister, White Squall and Turbulence.
CORPORATE
Corporate duty includes 10 years (‘72-’82) with Bethlehem Steel, where, in addition
to sales, marketing and transportation logistics responsibilities, was part of the
Automotive Project Team (APT). This group functioned as a liaison between the
automotive and steel industries for the recommendation and provision of materials
for prototype development. These included High Strength Low Alloy (HSLA) for
an industry forced on a diet by the early ‘70s energy crunch, and more corrosion
resistant steels like galvanized and galvalume to address growing consumer quality
concerns.
His Bethlehem experience further includes coordination of Capitol Hill-based
corporate lobbyists and marketing personnel that led to approval of a $2.01 billion
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16.
loan guarantee by the Reagan administration (Wall Street Journal, 8.6.81) for the
Beulah, North Dakota ANR Coal Gasification plant.
AGENCY
Stokes was part of a core team at the South Africa-based Maritz agency responsible
for redefining Ford’s sales training materials (‘90-’91). Tasks included his scripting
the ’91 Crown Victoria and Mercury Marquis training videos, as well as developing
the treatment for the ’91 Capri launch/training video. He was also talent for the ’90
Merkur Scorpio training video.
eMOTION! MAGAZINE, eMOTION! REPORTS.com
In 1997, Stokes announced development of a new magazine eMOTION! the world’s
first multi-lingual, global, automotive/aerospace publication. A proof-of-concept
issued was launched in two phases between April and July 1999 with a circulation
approaching one million -- unprecedented in this industry. And to promote the
eMOTION! brand, he established a series of informal gatherings in December 2000
to discuss issues of high impact and import among invited professionals in the four-
field arena of academia, media, corporate and government.
The success of these gatherings led to the establishment in early 2001 of eMOTION!
REPORTS, an automotive/aerospace industries research and analysis website
(www.emotionreports.com) targeted to individuals comprising informal gathering
attendees. The site is also providing a new vehicle for presentation of White Papers
and other scholarly research to a broadened, yet very defined audience.
Response to this new approach has been excellent owing to the provision of in-depth
analyses of critical issues in both industries. The DaimlerChrysler difficulties and
Boeing’s move of its corporate headquarters from Seattle are among the topics
reviewed. Additionally, reader/viewers are able to download an extraordinary 100-
page document outlining Boeing’s development of the Supersonic Transport along
with access to new thinking on the EP-3E incident.
In June 2003, in a collaborative effort with academic and research colleagues, he
presented through eMOTION! REPORTS.com the analysis “Super-Globalism ™:
Strategies For Maintaining a Robust Industrial Base Through Technological, Policy
and Process Improvement” which takes a hard look at the state of the country’s
industrial base, its core components, and their ability to succeed against determined
competition globally. This analysis has garnered worldwide presentation through
various mediums, inclusive of Dun & Bradstreet’s Hoover’s On-line, The Auto-
Channel, Firstrade, IEE and the China-based, multilingual, World News Network It
also formed the discussion core of a paper released by the Japan Auto Parts Industry
Association (JAPIA).
He was also privileged to work with a group of Canadian scientists in the
development and presentation of an engine technology white paper “Quantum
Parallel: The Saint-Hilaire ‘Quasiturbine’ as the Basis for a Simultaneous Paradigm
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17.
Shift in Vehicle Propulsion Systems” which has lately been the topic of scientific
discussion groups around the world. The paper was presented to an international
team of scientists and engineers during the 2004 Global PowerTrain Congress in
Dearborn, Michigan, and was dedicated to his Father, scientist and inventor
Rufus Stokes, honored by the DOE as an energy pioneer.
AWARDS
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a certificate of appreciation for his
assistance in accommodating Russian automotive supplier executives during a June,
1999 tour of the U.S.
In the aftermath of 9/11, Stokes was privileged to work with a team of scientists who
crafted a strategy for revamping the country’s skyscraper emergency response
methods, whether at the municipal, state or Federal level. This strategy, known as
IN-SERT (Skyscraper Emergency Response Team) was presented to emergency
response experts, inclusive of two FEMA representatives, within 30 days of the
disaster. IN-SERT demonstrated that a larger number of people, trapped above the
impact floors of the WTC, could have been preserved.
At present, in addition his publishing duties with the able assistance of Associate
Publisher John T. Chuhran and Web Editor Matthew Siporin, he is involved with
preservation of industrial base and mitigation of global supply chain vulnerabilities.
Stokes is a military aviation history expert with strong interests in the development
of naval weaponry over a 500 year period. He has also participated in the
restoration of B-17G and B-25 aircraft.
###
Schematic that accompanied application to the U.S. Patent office for the “Exhaust Purifier” of Scientist/Inventor Rufus Stokes in1967.
The Department of Energy has seen fit include him in its list of “Energy Pioneers” featuring no less than Newton, Tesla, Einstein,
Curie, Oppenheimer, Edison and Ford.
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
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18.
Backgrounder, John T. Chuhran
Associate Publisher, Motorsports Editor,
eMOTION! REPORTS.com
John T. Chuhran has covered motorsports as a journalist for more than a
quarter century. From 1992-94 he served as Director, Media Relations and
primary spokesman for Championship Auto Racing Teams, Inc. (CART) the
governing body for the PPG Indy Car World Series. For more than two decades he
has been a sports writer and editor for such media as The Philadelphia Bulletin,
Gannett Westchester (NY) Newspapers, the Bridgewater (NJ) Courier-News, the
Associated Press, United Press International, BBC Radio and the Reuters News
Service. He has served as communications Manager (Product), Press Fleet
Supervisor and Press Information Specialist of Mercedes-Benz North America
where he was responsible for all motorsports and professional sports
activities of the company.
He also has been the primary media professional at a selective New York City
investor relations firm where he optimized media exposure for several companies
that launched IPOs and Secondary Offerings. During this time, he was also the de
facto Media Relations executive responsible for all media activities of the
Professional Sports Car Racing series (now known as IMSA) during the ownership
of Andrew Evans. Currently, Mr. Chuhran manages the media centers at several
NASCAR racetracks during event weekends, and he maintains extremely positive
relationships with the motorsports media. He also continues to write as a
contributing editor for motorsports outlets such as The Star (Mercedes-Benz)
magazine.
Corvette C6 Concept Drawing Image: General Motors
74 W. Long Lake Rd. Suite 103 Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
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19.
Backgrounder, Matthew Siporin
Web Editor, eMOTION! REPORTS.com
Web Editor and Seneca Communications (www.senecacom.net) Senior Network
Specialist Matt Siporin is, well the heartbeat of eMOTION! REPORTS.com, and
has been with the site virtually since inception; having stepped in to fill the rather
large shoes of our dear colleague John Pluenneke, Jr. who went on to continue
academic pursuits. (Note: John grew up abroad, the son of one of the world’s most
competent business journalists, thus enabling him to provide unique insights into the
required structure and data flow for a fledgling ER in 2001.)
A graduate of the Texas State Technical College after a prior attendance at the
California Institute of The Arts, Matt has the task of managing, presenting and
maintaining the massive amounts of technical, industrial and institutional data
flowing in our direction at an almost overwhelming rate. Nevertheless,
reader/viewers note that ER analyses and images are presented in a logical, easily
assimilated manner that is quite useful to a site providing automotive/aerospace
industries research and analysis to our target audience of professionals within the
academic, media, corporate and government sectors.
His technical capabilities allow the appropriate placement of data no matter how
complex; vitally important when one considers that ER also has as a mission the
creating of an environment wherein White Papers such as “Crisis On Asimov: A
Vision of 2085”, “Hydrogen Infrastructure” and “Quantum Parallel: The St. Hilaire
Quasiturbine as The Basis For a Simultaneous Paradigm Shift in Vehicle Propulsion
Systems”, to a broadened, yet still very defined, audience.
An aviation enthusiast, July often finds the Siporin Clan at the Osh Kosh, Wisconsin
Air Show. ###
Boeing B-29 SuperFortress Image: USAAF
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20.
Observations From The Field….eMOTION! REPORTS.com
Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog
~ a future worth creating
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« June 13, 2004 - June 19, 2004 | Main | June 27, 2004 - July 03, 2004 »
"Reviewing the reviews" gets reviewed in online pub
Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 24 June 2004
eMotion! Reports.com, an online publication devoted to
"automotive/aerospace industries systemic intelligence" just put out a media
advisory on their new postings. One of them will be a review of my reviews of
my book, apparently pulled from this site. Here's the media advisory text,
written by the publisher, Myron D. Stokes:
Good Morning:
Whether we like it or not, the world is indeed, at war.
Obviously, not war in the traditional sense – it is asymmetric –
but war just the same. According to my colleague Dr. Sheila
Ronis, a national security strategist, “Global war begins with
economic crises such as the major problems in Japan, the
overheating of the China economy due to its insatiable, and now
unstoppable appetite for raw material, and the continued
instability within the Middle-East, compounded by the
uncertainties of Iraqi War outcome. We are right now
contending with macro-economic trends that are outstripping
and outpacing any efforts to keep them in check. Crises not
dissimilar to these in the 1930s directly led to World War II.
Very similar and very dangerous. [Dr. W. Edwards]Deming
once told me that Japan went to war because they thought their
population was about to starve. Their backs were to the wall,
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21.
and they felt they had no choice but to pursue this course in
view of then existent US economic policies.
“War is often the inevitable aftermath of negative economic
forces on nations, and we have to be mindful of the difficulties
facing multiple nations simultaneously, now, as then. We are
seeing in real-time the viability of the “core” and “gap”
scenarios postulated by Dr. Barnett in his book “The Pentagon’s
New Map.” Moreover, the Chinese view the global pie as a zero
sum game; their win is a loss for the US in every category of the
nation’s existence. However, if globalization is properly
managed, the entire pie can grow. If it is not managed, that's
when the industrial base could collapse. Conversely, the enemy
is not globalization, it is, rather, the lack of managing it.
“The statement, ‘So goes the economy, so goes the military
might’ is axiomatic. A non-linearist would say we are at the
‘tipping point’ and unless clear and implementable strategies
for preservation of the US industrial base as represented by
GM, Ford, Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Northrop-Grumman,
General Dynamics, Delphi and other core components emerge
in the very short term, its relative stability will disintegrate
followed by the possible collapse of the US economy.”
The forthcoming analysis "The Disintegration of Japan's
Export-oriented Economy" will expand on this theme in
addition to emergent Congressionally mandated initiatives
designed to address the erosion of the US industrial base.
In the meantime, we present three features of note that are
appropriate to our times: "Military Transformation Through
Analytical Process" A peer review of the Inter-University
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22.
Seminar proceedings late last year in Chicago that brought
together some of the world's leading scientists, academics,
military sociologists, military officers active and retired, and
industry executives to discuss the geo-economic impact of 21st
Century asymmetric warfare; "Reviewing the Reviews", a brief
look at other media analysis, inclusive of Businessweek and the
Wall Street Journal, of Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett's "The
Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in The 21st Century"
following our own March 24 review "The Core and Gap" and
lastly, an encore presentation of "Crisis on Asimov: A Vision of
2085" a look at the future of transportation derived from the
application of Department of Defense "visioning" processes, and
which acts as prelude to the a forthcoming University Press of
America book by Dr. Ronis "Crisis On Asimov: Strategic
Visioning for Governments, Industry and Other Organizations"
(revised title). "Asimov" also honors the opening of the new
Science Fiction Museum and Hall of Fame in Seattle; the brain
child of Microsoft Co-Founder and private sector spaceflight
pioneer Paul Allen and other noted visionaries.
An interesting example of how the weblog-centric version of the book here on
this site generates discussion above and beyond the normal review process.
(italics ours) Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 12:38 PM
Publisher’s note: Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, a former Professor at the Naval War College, is recognized
as one of the world’s leading military and sociological theorists and strategists. His book, “The
Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century is a New Times Best Seller and has won global
acclaim. In fact, it is now considered required reading within the governmental and military/industrial
complex. His current effort “Blueprint For Action: A Future Worth Creating” (G.P. Putnam and Sons)
is a continuation of his renowned clarity of thought in matters strategic.
We are pleased and honored that he has seen fit to include us in his commentary. – M.D. Stokes
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