- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......

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Thursday, 12 May 2011

Hitting Support

I gave some trendline support targets on SPX and NDX on the last swing down that weren't hit that time. NDX doesn't look likely to reach them but SPX is close again. Here it is on the SPX 30min chart:

That SPX trendline is rising support from the March low of course, and if it doesn't hold then the outlook for equities would then look distinctly more bearish. There's a similar situation on the Dow:

NDX has been far stronger over the last couple of weeks than SPX or Dow, and that is a bullish sign in my view. A rising support hit from the March low looks most unlikely unless we see major support breaks everywhere else:

I'm not wild about the rising channel I have on TF from March, but the target for the broken rising wedge I have on TF is at 828 and I have channel support in the 827.5 area:

Overnight we've seen some important bearish breaks on a number of charts. Silver has made a new low and closed an hour below the important support level at 33.6. I have a (currently theoretical) declining channel target in the 31 to 31.4 target today. The silver chart hasn't made the cut today but we also saw a new low on copper that broke the short term support trendline. Main bull market support is at 365 but I'm seeing some trendline support in the 374 area today:

Oil has almost made it back to my 96 target overnight. There's strong support there and a break of 96 with confidence would indicate back to main bull market support in the mid-80s:

EURUSD made it to my 1.416 potential H&S neckline overnight, and appears to be breaking through it. Next support at 1.40 if the move down continues:

So what's the outlook for equities today? I'm leaning towards a bounce at support on SPX, though the silver and copper support breaks are distinctly bearish. If rising support on SPX breaks then we might well see a rapid move towards 1305 to test the main rising channel support trendline from the July lows last year.

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