Does anyone think that Independent candidate Steve Shogan is actually as strong as this poll is indicating? I just have trouble believing that he is garnering 8% of the vote, considering Suffolk only had him at 1%, and SurveyUSA had him at 3%.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.

Yes, with the gubernatorial poll being so inflated, this was to be expected. I can't really see these numbers being accurate at all, these are way too inflated from what we've seen from other polling outfits.

So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not? Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race. In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin. Is he up eight? Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

Which is what 2010 looked like. A reach? Yeah, probably. But certainly not crazy. It is a rabbit chase trying to reconfigure voter screens and rectangle polling like that. It is better to take it for what it is and throw it in with the rest of the polling data. If you do that, you get a race that is probably very, very close. I just happen to think that it will break strongly for Gardner.

It's fine if you want to like a poll that produces a result that you find favorable to your own personal view, but you can't expect everyone else to nod in agreement. With an R+7 electorate in 2010, Buck still lost, so this poll could still be off even if you go by that standard. +8 is way too inflated.

So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not? Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race. In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin. Is he up eight? Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

The +6 might have been a stretch, but it was at least in the ballpark of other polls (the two before and after it was +4, +2, +3, +4). This poll is 7 points off from anything else out recently, 6 points off from anything out the entire cycle.