Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Wednesday, 9 June 2010

In between catching up and reviewing the Elo ratings, I have been able to find time to lose more money on the NBA Play-Offs. Laying the Lakers at 1.28 when up by 4 with about two minutes left was a value play that unfortunately didn’t deliver. The price moved out to 1.5 when the Celtics gained possession, but at that point greed kicked in and a basket would have had me sitting very pretty. Unfortunately for me, the Celtics turned the ball over and I had to go into damage control mode. Disappointing to lose, but the disappointment was tempered by the fact that it was a value play and the only approach at times like these is to be phlegmatic.The baseball continues to be slow with thin liquidity on most markets. Forget trading the over / under markets. I forget what game it was at the weekend, but after 5 ½ innings with the away team ahead, the total was one short of the over. 1.3 looked value for the over, and I took it, but cautious fellow that I am, when a few more outs went by with no run, I looked to trade out. No chance. As it turned out, the total went over comfortably, and as I write this I remember it was the Los Angeles Angels who scored another four in the top of the seventh and all was well. One other note from baseball at the weekend was that I was able to lay at 1.06 in the third inning of a 5-3 game. Value? I would say so. The trailing team came back to win in extra innings. One advantage of a thinly traded market is that it is surprisingly often that you can lay at silly prices. A one or two run lead in baseball with two thirds of the game to play is like a goal or two lead in ice-hockey in the first period. A good start, but assuming two evenly matched sides, not value at anything like 1.06. The World Cup of course starts on Friday and Matt at Football Elite is covering the event which will provide some added interest. He sent out his ante-post picks yesterday along with a detailed explanation of the thinking behind them, which is always interesting to read even if one doesn’t necessarily agree with all of the conclusions. It appears that the Sports Betting Professor has finally realized that he has received no money from me, as the e-mails with his picks have ceased. Unfortunately his e-mails trying to sell me horse racing, football (soccer), craps and just general crap systems haven’t. I saw no evidence of any edge in his picks, so they will not be missed.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.