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what we call satisfactory evidence, and with the poor means at
our disposal it must suffice.
In most cases we have to deal with mixed evidence, and frequently
it has become habitual to change the problem to be solved according
to our c

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commission smelt a disgusting odor while a coffin was being exhumed
only to discover that it was empty. If the coffin, for one reason or
another, had not been opened all those present would have taken
oath that they had an indubitable

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to a single unit; the negative to a boundless unit. If then I ask:
Are there any white marbles whatever in the bag? the answer is
rendered affirmative by the discovery of a single white marble.
But if the question is phrased: Are there

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Hume's skepticism is directly connected with the subject of the
preceding chapter, but wants still a few words for itself. Though
it is not the lawyer's problem to take an attitude with regard to
philosophical skepticism, his work beco

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indubitable proofs of the Royal Society, to be 157 years old at least
(according to his portrait in a copper etching he was 169 years old).
Yet as this is the most that has been scientifically proved I am justified
in saying that nobod

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for all the other testimony was of subordinate importance. Now
suppose the man was innocent, what could he have thought: `I
have already been examined once in a murder case, I found myself
in financial difficulties, I still am in such

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call it to the attention of the jury and bring them back to the
proper point of view. The ability to do this is very marvelous,
but it again is an exceedingly difficult performance.
Nowadays persuadability is hardly more studied but an

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cases. It is of this form of probability that Mill advises to know,
before applying a calculation of probability, the necessary facts,
i. e., the relative frequency with which the various events occur, and
to understand clearly the cau

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there are no indubitable rules; everybody must tell himself, `I
have perhaps never experienced this fact, but it may be that a
thousand other people have seen it, and seen it in a thousand different
ways. How then, and whence, my right

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of suicides in a certain semester is significantly less than the number
in the same semester of another year, we will postulate that in the
next half-year a comparatively larger number of suicides will take
place so that the number for

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exceptions which are infinitely more important are unobserved, and
the rule, once made, leads to innumerable mistakes.
Section 29. (g) Chance.
The psychological significance of what we call chance depends
upon the concept of chance and

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that the manufacture of woolens shall be perfected by a nation
which knows no astronomy,'-we are likely to say that the sentence
is silly; another might say that it is paradoxical and a third that it
is quite correct, for what is missi

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a bird has never yet been observed to give birth to living young,
and that hence all birds lay eggs.
But Pythagoras did not proceed in this experiential manner in
the discovery of his theorem. He constructed and he counted, and
when he

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which is of use to scientific spirits when they lack complete proof
of their points, but is dangerous in practical affairs. As a rule, it is
also the consequence of the failure to evaluate what is given, simply
because one forgets or i

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are corroborative; so are the stolen goods which have been seen
in his possession, and something he had lost at the place of the crime
which is recognized as his property, etc. ln short, when all these
indices are in themselves establi

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say, `We have not yet seen the blood of a mammal in which the
characteristic signs for recognition were not present, and we have
never yet recognized a body without the blood pertaining to it,
and hence we may say, we are not dealing w

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morrow's rain is in itself probable or improbable-the form of
expression is only a matter of usage. It is, however, necessary to
distinguish between conditioned and unconditioned probability.
If I to-day consider the conditions which a

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menace. We have at the same time to bear in mind how much use
we actually make of both; even our general rules-e. g., concerning
false testimony,-bias, reversibility, special inclinations, etc.-and our doctrines concerning the composit

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for psychology. This writer warns us against the over-valuation
of the results of the statistics of morality, and believes that its proper
tendencies will be discovered only much later. In any event the
real value of statistical synthe

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sivity, or simply do not make the study such alternations require;
yet the correct apportionment of action and reaction is, for us, of
greatest importance. In this regard, moreover, there is always the
empty problem as to whether two t

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the farming of cattle, and then having set the problem in his own
field construct the most daring analogies, for use in determining the
guilt of the accused. And we lawyers are no better. The more
difficult and newer a case is the more

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relations with the girl secret. It was further established at the autopsy
that the girl was pregnant, and so the theory was formed that the
merchant had poisoned his mistress and in the examination this
deed was set down against him. N

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occurring x times will invariably occur when the essential circumstances
remain identical. The earliest investigators started with
the simplest inductions,-that fire burns, that water flows
downward,-so that new, simple truths were con

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frequent when the difficulty is logical and not empirical. As a
matter of honesty, let me say that we criminalists are not trained
logicians, however necessary it is that we shall be such, and most
of us are satisfied with the barren r

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the whole to its simplest terms. If only we succeed in this reduction!
In most cases we substitute for one well-known term, not
another still better one, but a strange one which may mean different
things to different people. So again,

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me that he suspected another of a murder because the latter's mother
died a violent death. The witness stuck to his statement: `the
man who had once had something to do with killing must have
had something to do with this killing.' In

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that probabilities may be counted only from great series of figures
in which the experiences of individuals are quite lost.
Nevertheless figures and the conditions of figures with regard
to probability exercise great influence upon eve

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(3) Mistakes in generalization. (When the facts are right and
the inferences wrong).
(4) Mistakes of confusion. (Ambiguity of terms or mistakes by
association).
(5) Logical fallacies.
All five fallacies play important rles in the lawye