Playoff prediction: 49ers aren’t at full strength, but they’ll still pull a power-play on Green Bay

It’s not always wise to do this, and I almost never analyze games this way, but I got so stuck on this one that I gave up on the regular offense/defense/special teams break down and worked backwards:

My gut says the 49ers will beat Green Bay on Saturday, some how, some way, there you go, that’s how I started the playoff prediction.

And then I went about figuring out why I thought so and how it’ll actually happen on the sub-gut levels, God willing and the creek don’t rise, to paraphrase great millennial playwright Palo Alto James Harbaugh.

I think the 49ers are the better team, especially on the soggy dirt of Candlestick Point–presuming Justin Smith can play 40 to 50 snaps at anywhere near his usual level, presuming Colin Kaepernick delivers a steady performance and presuming Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play a perfect QB game.

Oh, and presuming Harbaugh’s surprising decision to stick with David Akers as his kicker doesn’t come back to haunt the 49ers in a devastating way.

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I just think the 49ers are built to have an advantage when they play a finesse team. The Read-Option 49ers aren’t as physical as they were last year, but they’re still stronger than most, and when they can inflict their will on an opponent, they’re very good at keeping to that.

Green Bay has been more diversified on offense and tougher on defense of late, but it’s still mostly a finesse team–the Packers aren’t going to pound you with any kind of run-game consistency, and they’re not a crunching defense.

What they do is attack you with Rodgers, who is incredible, and they try to trick you on defense and shake up the QB from different rush angles, and yes, a young QB like Kaepernick might be a little susceptible to that.

But I think the 49ers are good enough–and will game plan wisely enough–to usher Kaepernick through any understandable jitters, and I think Kaepernick isn’t easily jitter-ized, anyway. He won’t have to win this game by himself, and he can make the 3 plays that bust up a defense, too.

This is a tough prediction for me to make because I picked Green Bay as my Super Bowl winner at the beginning of this season, and under other circumstances, with a different match-up in this round, I think the Packers would be looking at a very nice path to New Orleans.

But they lost home-field advantage to the 49ers on the last day of the season, and the price they’ll have to pay is a large one: Long flight, vs. a rested 49ers team (that needed the rest), playing on the 49ers’ terms.

I think it’ll be a good game, possibly an epic game. Heck, part of me believes that this game will decide the Super Bowl champion, that’s how much I respect the Packers, who, after all, have done this before, from an even lower seeding.

* 49ers 30, Green Bay 22 on Sept. 9 at Lambeau Field: The 49ers out-gained Green Bay, out-possessed GB 33 minutes to 27 minutes, didn’t commit a turnover and just out-classed a Packer team that was still feeling it’s way into the season.

Of course, that was with Alex Smith at QB, playing supremely well, and that’s out the window now. And Green Bay is a much more put-together team in January than it was in September.

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But I think the physical supremacy and the harrying of Rodgers can be strung together from Sept-to-Jan and the 49ers–with their great linebackers and DBs and offensive linemen–are the team to do it.

* Seattle 14, Green Bay 12 on Monday night Sept. 24 at CenturyLink Field: Throw out the final score because we all know it was a scandalous ending–the infamous replacement-ref “simultaneous possession” with Golden Tate swiping it from the Packers’ M.D. Jennings in the end zone on the final play.

But let’s just concentrate on the meat of that game, because Seattle is a very similar team to the 49ers–tough-minded, young dynamic QB, ball-hawking. And… Green Bay couldn’t move the ball on the Seahawks in this game–tallying only 268 total yards and giving up 8 sacks of Rodgers.

I think the 49ers and Packers will score more than the 26 points combined (or 19 points legally) in that game, but I think the spirit of this match-up could be parallel. And if Seattle can bang Green Bay around, I think the 49ers can, too. (Again.)

* 49ers 31, New Orleans 21 on November 25 at the Superdome: How will Kaepernick do under some stress? This was his first road game, it came when the Saints still were in the playoff chase, and it came when Kaepernick and the 49ers knew he might have to put up a large number playing against Drew Brees.

Turns out the 49ers D put up its own number–Ahmad Brooks and Donte Whitner returned INTs for TDs–and Kaepernick was just fine. If the 49ers have to put up some points on Saturday, I think it’s do-able, and I trace a lot of my sense on this to the New Orleans game.

–Of course, Justin Smith is the largest issue. Can he play half the snaps? 75% of the snaps? Will he gouge the Packers OL like normal or will be a shell of himself… and thus making Aldon Smith and Isaac Sopoaga and others into shells of their ownselves, too?

It’s impossible to know. I think Smith will have a ton of adrenaline flowing, I think he’ll make some plays early, and then we’ll just have to see if his elbow can hold up into the second half and what happens to the 49ers D if it doesn’t.

I’m guessing that Smith will be good enough for this game. He might have some residual effects heading into the next few rounds, but the month off should at the very least give him some extra jump in his legs and help to temporarily counter-balance a probable loss of arm strength.

I think he can occupy blockers and that will free Aldon Smith and that will make Rodgers’ life more hellish than otherwise, and that’s necessary for the 49ers in this one.

I think the Packers will score some points–you can’t rely on wiping out a Rodgers offense the same the 49ers D couldn’t wipe out Brees and New Orleans in last year’s divisional playoffs. You just try to make it hard for such a tough offense, you make the Packers pay for all those drop backs (with sacks and turnovers) and I think the 49ers can do that.

I’ll say Green Bay scores three TDs, but it won’t be easy. I think the 49ers D will create some short fields or maybe even run one in itself.

I think Frank Gore will get more power-sets than he’s been getting in the last few weeks, I think he will run well, I think the 49ers’ OL will block well, and I think LaMichael James and Kaepernick will get to 7 to 10 plays out of the Pistol or Read Option sets, and they’ll break 1 or 2 long ones, too.

I also think Kaepernick can avoid the dangerous pass–even if Charles Woodson tries to bait him into something–and that Joe Staley will hold his ground against Clay Matthews Jr.

I think Green Bay will score 27 points. That seems like a lot, but I think it won’t be an up-and-down thing. It’ll be grueling.

And I think within all that, the 49ers will get four TDs and a (short) FG, and they’ll get 31 points, maybe have to withstand a late Green Bay rally… and the 49ers will win, 31-27.

That’s my call. I started with the conclusion, and then I worked to it, and there you go.

Well guess the injury to Justin Smith is a big question mark but
I think it will be painful to play but it won’t really take away from
his play much because he’s practiced with it.
The triceps brachii extends, or straightens, the arm by contracting
so the brace should keep is arm in an almost straight position and when
he needs to pull using his arm he’ll use the biceps which isn’t injured.
He’s still one tuff dude cause sure it hurts like he*l while playing. I guess if you had to injure one of the upper arm muscles the triceps is better than the biceps.

Congratulations on the sportswriter of the year award. I am also a long time fan, and as the previous post stated, I have not always agreed with you. But, the reason I enjoy reading your columns and this blog is that you do put yourself out there with your commentary and predictions, but always have facts to back up your statements. The Bay Area News Group is lucky to have you!

Oracle of Delphi

Pick makes sense to me… but see the Pack only getting 20… 49ers win it, 31-20.

…and CONGRATS on the award, Tim!

DaNiners

I love these Niners fans who say, “I’m a Niner fan, but don’t think they will beat the Pack”. WTF! You aren’t a fan if you don’t believe your team can win after stomping on the Pack in week one (23-7 before a bogus punt return), finishing with an 11-4-1 record, beating the Saints, Pack and Pats on the road, again having the best D in football (when motivated) and playing a team who’s record does not match up well against physical teams (Niners, Giants, Seahawks, and more).

Outside of QB and WR (and their WR benefit from Rodgers) what part of the Packers team compares to the Niners? Go player by player and show me where they match-up evenly. Front seven? Not close, terrible against run. Niners’s best in league again. DB’s, not close, aging vet is their best option and gets injured every year it seems. OL, don’t make me laugh, arguably one of the worst lines in NFL. RB, they don’t have one.

Here are couple of absolutes: Rodgers will get hit, Niners will wear down Packs defensive line and Gore gets 100 yds. That really leaves one option for the Pack, that Rodgers makes enough plays to win the game by himself. History tells you that rarely happens during playoffs. The better team almost always wins and a team that loses every other facet of the game generally loses. I don’t care if it’s Brady, Brees or Rodgers, if you do not win even one battle up front, you lose. In essence, the Pack have to beat the odds tomorrow night and I just don’t see that happening. The better TEAM almost always wins.

KezarFan

TK – often disagree with you, but your heart and soul are squarely where they should be. Congrats. Keep doing — you bring a little east coast to your work.

Adam

This is a very well written and thought out analysis of this Saturday’s game. It seems the majority of talking head “experts” are picking the Packers in this one because of their performance against a MUCH less talented Vikings team last week. It is laughable that they compare Joe Webb (or whatever his name is) to Colin Kaepernick. The Packers will not shut down the 9ers offense as they did the Vikings last week (however, NOT the week previous) and if the Packers have a string of 7 or 8 three & outs like they did in the second half last week the 49ers offense will make them pay. We all know San Francisco’s defense if MORE than capable of doing so and if presented with a short field numerous times CK7, Gore, Crabtree, and Davis will make them pay.

49ers 35 Packers 21

Enonymous

#9
Simple
Being a fan doesn’t equal blind loyalty.
Justin smith and I hate to say it, David Akers, are huge part of what the niners do.
If Justin smith plays like he did week 1 and Akers is banging in 63 yarders, then yeah, the niners should win.
But the pack is healthy now, and their offensive firepower is scary. The niners have sustained huge injuries (hunter, manningham, Williams, smith) that have weakened them.
So when unsure, ill take the better more established qb. We know who that is.

orangeandblack

Kawi is one of the most singular sportswriters out there. He isn’t afraid to lay it on the line and stand up for it (remember the Raiders coach hissyfit, where Kawi put his hands behind his back – ‘you get the first swing’). Not afraid to step away from the pack, or be wrong, which results in his analysis often being spot on when virtually nobody else’s is. Always well written, which is impressive under deadline pressures.

Regarding his pick, I hope he’s correct, particularly for Harbaugh’s and Kaepernick’s sakes as well as the Niners and the overall Bay Area. Go Niners.

@ DaNiners…..Thanx for sparing me a case of Carpel Tunnel. I could not agree with you any more. Spot on my man. BTW, Tim, great writing. One of your best to date.

SFFranciscan

The key to this game is the 49er offensive line. They must control the game and the clock, and obviously give Gore the lanes to run.

If Rodgers has too many opportunities, I just don’t see the cornerbacks and nickel backs holding up, and without Justin & Aldon Smith at full health, the pass rush is nowhere near what it was.

Very tough game. Any interceptions by Kaepernick will be hard to overcome with #12 trotting back on the field. You know how badly he’ll want Saturday to be a statement game.

DaNiners

#13. Such a baseless argument. Their kicker is just as bad as ours. Justin Smith at 75% is better than anyone on their line, including BJ overrated Raji. Show me where in the last seven weeks the Packers have played a great team? Show me who besides the Bears and Titans they have stopped from running? 99 yds to Peterson, at home with Webb at QB and 9 in the box, that still is not very good. Now, look at how many sacks Rodgers has taken this year. Their line is still not very good. Show me when they have dominated any decent team this season.

Again, your points do not change to fact that the Packers win nowhere except QB and WR. Historically, that does not win championships. They are won with dominance on both sides of the line. You look at every great Niners team and that is where we ultimately won. Time for Montana/Young to throw, running lanes, and no time for the other QB. The Packers will not consistently threaten Kaepernick, nor stop the Gore, nor stop our line from getting penetration. So, how do they logically win? Brady couldn’t, Bree’s couldn’t, Rodgers couldn’t, so where? I just do not see it. Only team capable of beating the Niners this year are the Seahawks and Falcons. Why Falcons? Mike Nolan is an excellent defensive coach who like the Niners coach is capable of making offenses one-dimensional. Talent-wise Falcons D is average at best…Nolan makes them formidable.

DaNiners

#13. Such a baseless argument. Their kicker is just as bad as ours. Justin Smith at 75% is better than anyone on their line, including BJ overrated Raji. Show me where in the last seven weeks the Packers have played a great team? Show me who besides the Bears and Titans they have stopped from running? 99 yds to Peterson, at home with Webb at QB and 9 in the box, that still is not very good. Now, look at how many sacks Rodgers has taken this year. Their line is still not very good. Show me when they have dominated any decent team this season.

Again, your points do not change to fact that the Packers win nowhere except QB and WR. Historically, that does not win championships. They are won with dominance on both sides of the line. You look at every great Niners team and that is where we ultimately won. Time for Montana/Young to throw, running lanes, and no time for the other QB. The Packers will not consistently threaten Kaepernick, nor stop the Gore, nor stop our line from getting penetration. So, how do they logically win? Brady couldn’t, Bree’s couldn’t, Rodgers couldn’t, so where? I just do not see it. Only team capable of beating the Niners this year are the Seahawks and Falcons. Why Falcons? Mike Nolan is an excellent defensive coach who like the Niners coach is capable of making offenses one-dimensional. Talent-wise Falcons D is average at best…Nolan makes them formidable.

N

TK- this is good analysis, and I think you are on the money. Especially regarding more power sets for Gore. Its not like the Niners coaches don’t know the difference in his YPC out of power formations. They were kind of explorinf on offense the last few weeks, but I think they will construct a game plan with what they know their guys excel at, like any smart staff would.

LurchRang

It all comes down to Roman’s playcalling. If he gets all timid with Stanford fleaflickers, we are toast. The niners will need to score 37 points to win because JS won’t be up to par, GB is on a roll and they sense blood in the water.

Ron

Win the trenches and do not beat yourself. Do that the next three games and we have a great chance at Lombardi VI.