Wise spending won’t bust defence budget

The strategic guidelines set out in the defence white paper show there is no need to throw huge amounts of extra money at the nation’s military forces. Which is just as well, as both sides of politics have made it plain that they won’t be doing so in the foreseeable future.

Spending is now a little under 1.6 per cent of GDP compared to the average of less than 1.8 percent since 2000. The 1.6 per cent is above the level for most developed non-nuclear armed countries and it is about equal to the Australian Defence Intelligence Organisation’s estimate for China.

Each side of federal politics says it aspires to lift spending to 2 per cent of GDP, but only after the budget is repaired, which could be some time.

However, the available money should be spent more wisely than Labor’s decision to go ahead with the highly risky local construction of 12 hugely expensive submarines with a unique design. Established economic policy also requires both sides of politics to drop their commitment to pay large penalties to build other warships in Australia. The same budget realities mean they should embrace highly capable drones that have reversed the long upward spiral in the cost of combat aircraft.

The Coalition’s defence spokesman, Senator
David Johnston,
indicated on Friday that he could reverse Labor’s white paper decision to drop the current study into buying 12 well-proven, off-the-shelf subs to replace the clapped-out Collins class. Labor will focus on building an “evolved Collins"or another big new design.

The head of the future submarine program, Rear Admiral
Rowan Moffit
, says it will take 20 years to have the first newly designed submarine ready for operational use, then another 24 years to complete delivery at two-year intervals. Plausible estimates put the cost at over $50 billion in today’s dollars.

Collins subs too high a cost

In the meantime, either of the new options will involve an enormous effort – and cost – simply to keep three outdated Collins subs going. Johnston said on Friday that Australia was spending $1 billion a year on the Collins. He said he understood about two of the six subs are now operational on average, which was an improvement on the previous maintenance record where often all the boats were in the dry dock.

Related Quotes

Company Profile

He said, “I wouldn’t want to go back near Collins if it was the last thing on Earth that we could do". Instead, Johnston is interested in buying high quality, modern, off-the-shelf submarines to save money as soon as possible.

Twelve European subs will cost around $10 billion. Johnston also notes that six near-new subs from Portugal and Greece could be available even sooner for a better price, yet offer greater capability than the Collins.

Leading defence budget specialist Mark Thomson says that the white paper’s strategic guidance focuses on controlling the maritime approaches to Australia, which doesn’t require big new submarines built to a unique design. He says: “Smaller, off-the shelf submarines could do the job. No extra capability is worth having regardless of the price."

The white paper’s principal task for the Australian Defence Force is to deter and defeat armed attacks on Australia.

The second priority is to contribute to stability and security in the South Pacific.

The paper’s policy of building Australia’s force structure around these two objectives imposes a crucial discipline over procurement and personnel decisions. As one of the preparatory analyses for the paper puts it: “Maintaining the capability to categorically respond to all threats [around the globe] is beyond the ability of even the most powerful nations."

The paper’s third and fourth principles state that components of this force structure should be able to contribute to military contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region and support global security. The dispatch of various elements of the ADF to Timor Leste, the Solomons, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere illustrates what’s possible, if not always desirable.

US influence on defence spend

However, the ADF could be diverted from its core objectives if planners allow operational doctrine to be dominated by the US’s important new Air-Sea Battle Plan.

The plan assumes the ADF will always be available to help impose a proposed naval blockade on exports of raw materials from reaching China, Australia’s biggest market. As Johnston said in a recent speech: “Our economic security is entirely premised upon maritime security for our exports. The sale of commodities is what pays the bills, provides employment and powers our economy."

It will need an extraordinarily compelling case before Australia participates in a blockade that will collapse the global economy. Nevertheless, the US military is pushing Australia to give a high priority to preparing for such a blockade as part of a high intensity war with China.

The counter view is that is that Australia and the US should make a bigger effort to prevent a full-scale war in which ultimate victory will not be assured until land forces conquer 1.35 billion Chinese.

The white paper’s focus on defending Australia against a substantial armed attack is not as hard to achieve as many people claim. All regional countries, including China, even if they have a motive, will take decades to develop the forces for such a huge task.

But Australia will have ample warning – time to build up the required forces to counter the threat.

Armed forces already formidable

The white paper notes that Australia already possesses formidable forces that are being upgraded in many areas.

Provided governments choose cost-effective new fighters, maritime patrol planes and submarines, Australia should have even more capable forces in a few years.

The air force has over 90 well-armed fighters whose effectiveness is multiplied by aerial refuellers and airborne early warning and control planes.

The army is competent and generally well equipped. The surface fleet is being upgraded with large air warfare destroyers and amphibious transport and supply ships. The Collins subs are the weak link.

Sophisticated communications and detection systems greatly enhance the military utility of the ADF’s weapons. The Jindalee over-the-horizon radar network bounces radio signals off the ionosphere to detect planes and ships at a range of over 3000 kilometres.

Despite all the hype about the “stealthiness" of the trouble-plagued US F-35 joint strike fighter, Jindalee is able to detect it with relative ease.

The air force’s 71 ageing Hornet fighters are armed with an advanced long-range cruise missile (JASSM). Its 24 new Super Hornets were meant to act as a stopgap until up to 100 F-35s arrived. But the F-35 has been hit by steep prices rises and delays.

The US Government Accounting Office said in April: “Slightly more than 11 percent of development contract performance specifications have been verified as met . . .

“The bulk of development testing and evaluation is planned to continue into 2016, and is expected to identify additional deficiencies."

Stealth no longer so stealthy

Canada’s conservative PM,
Stephen Harper,
has decided to re-evaluate all available alternatives after an audit put the life cycle cost of his proposed purchase of 65 F-35s at over $42 billion, rather than the initial estimate of $8.5 billion.

The rapid improvement in data processing power in various detection technologies is undermining the F-35’s impressive stealth capabilities.

The chief of US naval operations Admiral
Jonathan Greenert
says that new sensors are countering the advantages of stealth.

“It is time to consider shifting our focus from platforms that rely solely on stealth."

The Super Hornet is well proven and costs a lot less than the F-35 which, even if the fully flight-tested versions meet performance specifications, will not be available to Australia until after 2020.

Although it retains bi-partisan support, the case for buying any F-35s looks very thin. Australia could have an impressive array of air power 48 Super Hornets and a reducing number of classic Hornets, complemented by long range, low cost combat drones.

The likely development of drones capable of shooting down manned fighters by the 2020s will allow Australian to boost its defence capability even further without busting the budget.