2011-02-22

OMG

In the last few days, a whole bunch of people have asked me about my thoughts on the Bautista deal. I must admit, they are still somewhat scattered.

When I first heard reports of the deal - 5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $13M - for the services of one Jose Bautista my initial reaction was: OMG what did we just do. Like most Toronto sports fans - more specifically Jays fans - long term deals give me the creeps. Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske, BJ Ryan and Alex Israel Rios Cruz just to name a few that didn't work out so hot. You could say we have been a little snake bitten over the years.

Conversely all those seem to pale in comparison to the rage I felt when King Carlos was cut lose for nothing. Not even picks. How about the memories the name Chris Carpenter brings back. Remember what it was like to be cheap?

Argue all you want about true value but with both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols setting the market for free agents next year, you have to figure Bautista would have certainly cashed in. All he had to do was have a decent year and he would have made a great back up plan for whichever (large market) team missed out on the big boys. I don't think there is any way we get him to sign this same deal after the 2011 season has played it's course. He is still going to be hitting in the 3 hole in a power packed lineup that plays half it's games in a hitter friendly park. Christ, every park in the AL East minus Tampa Bay is a launching pad. He still has the same hitting coach that helped him "unlock" the power in his swing. His confidence is at an all time high as a player.

This deal to me is a bit of a gamble by the Boy Wonder. We all know that is what he has always said he needs to do to compete in this division. The Morrow for League trade was a gamble. The Gonzalez for Escobar trade was a gamble. The Gose for Wallace trade was a gamble. The Marcum for Lawrie trade was - you guessed it - a gamble. All of those guys, fair or not had question marks about their character or their game when we got them.

The difference with J-Bau is that he has been with us since the end of the 2008 season. He has had well over 1000 at bats in a Blue Jays uniform. The organization has gotten a chance to know him as a player and a person. He is an asset in the club house. He can communicate with every player on the team. There are no surprises with him like there was with Lawrie and Podsednik. On a somewhat more comparable scale, think about what is going on right now with Miggy and the Tigers. They gave away a decent haul and had to take on Dontrelle Willis just to get their hands on him. Then they pay all that cash to extend him only to find out he has a bit of a (reoccurring) drinking problem.

David Ortiz1b/dh4 years/$52M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option at $12.5M

13MHe will be 35 when this deal expires.

Jose Bautista3b-of

5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 club option

13MHe will be 35 years old if the option is picked up.

Victor Martinezc-1b4 years/$50M (2011-14)

12.5MHe will be 35 when this deal expires.

Paul Konerko1b3 years/$37.5M (2011-13)

12.5M

He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Dan Uggla2b5 years/$62M (2011-15)

12.4MHe will be 35 when this deal expires.

Chase Utley2b

7 years/$85M (2007-13)

12.143M

He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Kosuke Fukudome of4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12MHe will be 34 when this deal expires.

Aaron Rowandof5 years/$60M (2008-12)

12MHe will be 35 when this deal expires.

Josh Hamiltonof2 years/$24M (2011-12)

12MHe will be 31 when this deal expires.

Carlos Guillen 2b4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M

He will be 35 when this deal expires.

I completely understand why so many people hate this deal. But I figure those are most likely the same people that hated on Bautista the entire 2010 season. Yes, it was improbable what he did. But he still did it. And that is one hell of a ceiling for a player offensively. Never mind the fact that he can play a serviceable 3rd base or right field for the team, right now. Near the end of the deal you could see him make the move to 1st base if need be.

Just one more thing everyone, please refrain from heaping all these expectations on him. I know it's what we do and it will be hard but.....try.

If you look at that list of salaries, and you look at those who make more than Jose, if he even regresses and goes .260/30/80, I think he's still worth it. In fact, I'm willing to bet he has a better statistical year than Jayson Werth, who makes a bit more coin. The length of the deal worries me a bit, but I do think that it takes some time for some guys to "get it". Hopefully he has found something that works for him at the plate and he sticks with it. And, he plays both 3B and RF well, has a cannon for an arm and has a bit of speed. If he has another big year, he may have priced himself out of the Jays range, so maybe it's a good thing we locked him up early....