PalmSource Stock Surges on Acquisition News

Shares of PalmSource today rose 78%, up $7.89 with very heavy volume, on news of the ACCESS acquisition. Also, some new details about the details of the acquisition have been released.

The merger agreement has been approved by the board of directors of each of ACCESS Co., Ltd. and PalmSource, Inc. The acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of 2005 calendar year, pending regulatory approval and the approval of PalmSource's shareholders.

PalmSource today filed a 8-K statement with the SEC that reveals some details concerning the execution of the merger.

Apollo?
The filing reveals that ACCESS just recently established a wholly owned subsidary in the US called Apollo Merger Sub, Inc on September 2nd. Apollo Merger Sub is also headed by ACCESS' CEO Toru Arakawa. Apollo Merger Sub is the parent company which is the official company PalmSource is entering into agreement with.

This is purely speculation, but it is possible that the name Apollo could have something to do with the name of the new company.

The document also shows that if the merger is terminated or not approved, PalmSource would be required to pay ACCESS a $9.7 million termination fee. ACCESS plans to complete the merger in December 2005.

first post?

RE: first post?

This story makes no sense whatsoever. If Access or NetFront or whoever this is supposed to be is smart enough to have acquired $327 Million why would they be stupid enough to pay that amount for PalmSource? How could they possibly make money on it. Could they use Palm OS in a new Audry? License it to phone makers with Phone OS and browser in one? Why would they pay $327 Million to do that when they could do it practically free with a Linux OS base?

This is some kind of scam. I hope the FCC investigates and bust them.

Why did Access do this? Here's 4 possible reasons:

This story makes no sense whatsoever. If Access or NetFront or whoever this is supposed to be is smart enough to have acquired $327 Million why would they be stupid enough to pay that amount for PalmSource? How could they possibly make money on it. Could they use Palm OS in a new Audry? License it to phone makers with Phone OS and browser in one? Why would they pay $327 Million to do that when they could do it practically free with a Linux OS base?

This is some kind of scam. I hope the FCC investigates and bust them.

The price seems ridiculous, but perhaps not in a few possible scenarios:

1) Access-as-the-New-Palm theory: Access becomes a more intelligent Palm: contracts with HTC, etc and becomes a one-stop supplier of phones to carriers. Nice way to segue out of the browser business now that the power of future hardware will soon allow open source browsers to run acceptably, "Netscaping" Access' NetFront browser.

Fly in the ointment: Palm's renegotiated contract with PalmSource allows them to keep their clutches on PalmOS for 5 more years. For the "one-stop supplier" idea to be effective a company needs (Apple-style) COMPLETE control over both OS and hardware.

2) Access-as-puppet theory: Access acquires PalmSource + runs it into the ground for the benefit of a shadowy Redmond-colored figure lurking in the background.

3) Access-as-a-better-Symbian theory: Great OS + huge app library + good developer community + fair developer tools; without overbearing spectre of Nokia trying to run the show = instant mobile platform IF packaged with ALL the ingredients (as I've previously suggested that PalmSource have rolled into PalmOS). It wouldn't take a lot of effort to make PalmOS into a killer mobile platform. PalmSource was too clueless to see this. A better-run company might have better luck.

4) Access-as-hostagetaker: I wonder if Palm would be willing to reconsider how badly it needs PalmOS and pay Access an extra premium to regain control of PalmOS now that Access has abducted it while Palm was sleeping?

RE: first post?

BTW - Charles Wolf's (analyst for Needham who has followed PALM/HAND/PLMO/PSRC since the beginning, pretty much, but who I personally generally disagree with anyway) commentary on this planned merger pretty much sums it up, IMHO:

Access' strategy - W T F is going on???

(1) Perhaps - they made noises to that effect during the merger plan announcements - but that acquisition PRICE is outrageous.

Yes, the price was INSANE, but the potential returns could be massive. Imagine a company like Nokia or Sony Ericsson putting out a better quality Treo 650. If it became popular and the ONLY way to get the hardware was through them, carriers would be helpless.

(2) Nah - Redmond was/is ALREADY running PalmOS into the ground as the change-in-marketshare statistics more than adequately show - no need to do anything further.

(3) Though this MAY be true we keep on getting back to that acquisition PRICE that makes no sense.

Again, if executed by a COMPETENT organization, this could be a successful business plan.

(4) Ain't gonna happen - ALL evidence both obscure (the uSoft mobile web pages containing numerous apparently-PALM devices running uSoft OSes) and blatant (PALM CEO almost saying "Sure, we like other OSes!! and PALM overtly hiring Linux Droids) and contractual items that say "PALM gets as much PalmOS as they want under any condition) says PALM wouldn't give up a nickle.

You may be right. As I posted before, Palm certainly covered their a$$ when they recently renegotiated their contract for the PalmOS license. They now have PalmOS locked up until 2011! By that time, we'll probably be running scalable real desktop OSes on mobile hardware, so PalmOS will be obsolete. And at that point, Palm will stop leeching from PalmSource and can detach itself from the corpse + start looking for a new host. ;-O

Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tuned..

PalmSource can still get out of this deal, But will they? Does Palm need to play its White Knight card and recover control of the OS?

If Palm fails to buy back PalmSource, they have officially surrendered. Yes, when the Windows Mobile Treos come out in a few months Palm will enjoy a temporary boost in sales. But PalmOS Treo sales will nosedive. Then the PalmOS developer community will panic and jump ship to WinMob.

When other Windows Mobile devices copying the Treo design start appearing next year and undercutting Palm on price, it will be time to finally pull the plug on the platform.

It should never have ended this way. What a waste of a great platform. Now I understand how Newton and Amiga owners feel.

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tuned..

All I can say is that I'll wait patiently. Given Skippy's past performance and track record, it should be very fun to watch how he back tracks when this prediction turns out to be as accurate as his guess that Palm would buy PalmSource in '06.

Marty FoutsLead Linux LizardPalmSource Core Technology Department

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tuned..

It should never have ended this way. What a waste of a great platform. Now I understand how Newton and Amiga owners feel.

"It's not over 'til the fat lady sings." Does this mean it's over? Of course Access, PalmSource and even Palm want us to believe this doesn't signal the end, only a brighter future. We'll have to see about that. But I will agree that IF it does end, it was a waste of a great platform.

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tun

"The Voice of Something-or-Other" says we can still get out of this deal, Palm can still "save" us.

Why would we want to? It's sounding tolerably good to me, certainly as a stockholder.

I've noted with some small amusement the message from this contributor on the Yahoo Finance boards, under the name "jihadevil". Just out of curiosity, how many shares of PalmSource did you get caught short on...?

Taking a soaking is painful, huh? I'll think of you when I'm indulging myself with what used to be your money, thanks!

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tuned..

The Voice of Something-or-Other" says we can still get out of this deal, Palm can still "save" us.

Why would we want to? It's sounding tolerably good to me, certainly as a stockholder.

I've noted with some small amusement the message from this contributor on the Yahoo Finance boards, under the name "jihadevil". Just out of curiosity, how many shares of PalmSource did you get caught short on...?

Taking a soaking is painful, huh? I'll think of you when I'm indulging myself with what used to be your money, thanks!

Love,

LeftyMinister of Fun (or Else!), PalmSource Core Texchnologies

Guess again, David. Do you REALLY think I would ever lose money on a deal for sales of PalmSource stocks? (If I was an investor, which of course I'm not.) Did you see the option activity prior to the announcement? Get a clue, Bubba.

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tun

Do you REALLY think I would ever lose money on a deal for sales of PalmSource stocks?

Um, sure. A pile, in fact.

What's he to Hecubah, or Hecubah to him, that he should weep thus for her?

—William Shakespeare, Hamlet

Just seems odd that you'd be pitching the same strident Doomsday scenarios on the Yahoo stock boards, advertising your position as "Strong Sell". Like we used to say at Apple, "If you think you're too cynical, you're not cynical enough."

Love,

Lefty (the Great and Terrible)Minister of Fun (or Else!), PalmSource Core Technologies

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tun

In the deep distant past when I was a much bigger stock message board show-off than now (yes! It's possible!) I used to regularly click on "Sentiment" to express...well...my desired direction of stock price movement at the moment. Thus pre-Buying a stock I would express "Strong Sell" and post-Buying I would express "Strong Buy".

And vice-versa if I intended to short the stock.

So maybe TVoR is interested in buying?

Giggle.

[note - I do an amazing amount of posting about PSRC here and elsewhere but, as far as my synapses can recall without checking tax records, I've never had any stock position of any type in PSRC (movement too scary under too low a volume fer me!). Were I to post a "Sentiment" at THIS moment it would probably be "Strong Buy" as a feeble attempt to pump up the price to make it even a better short]

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tuned..

What's he to Hecubah, or Hecubah to him, that he should weep thus for her?—William Shakespeare, Hamlet

Just seems odd that you'd be pitching the same strident Doomsday scenarios on the Yahoo stock boards, advertising your position as "Strong Sell". Like we used to say at Apple, "If you think you're too cynical, you're not cynical enough."

Guess again, David - I have never bought or sold any PalmSource stocks. Or any other stocks for that matter. I COULD have done so and made a killing this week, but... after what happened to Martha? Life is too short. You are getting cold...

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tuned..

In the deep distant past when I was a much bigger stock message board show-off than now (yes! It's possible!) I used to regularly click on "Sentiment" to express...well...my desired direction of stock price movement at the moment. Thus pre-Buying a stock I would express "Strong Sell" and post-Buying I would express "Strong Buy".

And vice-versa if I intended to short the stock.

So maybe TVoR is interested in buying?

Giggle.

[note - I do an amazing amount of posting about PSRC here and elsewhere but, as far as my synapses can recall without checking tax records, I've never had any stock position of any type in PSRC (movement too scary under too low a volume fer me!). Were I to post a "Sentiment" at THIS moment it would probably be "Strong Buy" as a feeble attempt to pump up the price to make it even a better short]

More consipracy theories by PSRC Senior Manager

Just seems odd that you'd be pitching the same strident Doomsday scenarios on the Yahoo stock boards, advertising your position as "Strong Sell". Like we used to say at Apple, "If you think you're too cynical, you're not cynical enough."

Love,

Lefty (the Great and Terrible)Minister of Fun (or Else!), PalmSource Core Technologies

Conspiracies

There is a subtext in here, however. Everything is a conspiracy, but the ultimate conspiracy is the one wherein you conspire against yourself. We wander around imagining, in a thoughtless sort of way, that there's some concrete, ongoing and adamantine entity that I (in my particular case) call "me".

Written by David N. SchlesingerPalmSource Senior Manager

Are all people this strange at PSRC? Or just the managers?

Surur

Yes, it IS too late for Palm to get PalmSource back

Just seems odd that you'd be pitching the same strident Doomsday scenarios on the Yahoo stock boards, advertising your position as "Strong Sell". Like we used to say at Apple, "If you think you're too cynical, you're not cynical enough."

Love,

Lefty (the Great and Terrible)Minister of Fun (or Else!), PalmSource Core Technologies

Conspiracies

There is a subtext in here, however. Everything is a conspiracy, but the ultimate conspiracy is the one wherein you conspire against yourself. We wander around imagining, in a thoughtless sort of way, that there's some concrete, ongoing and adamantine entity that I (in my particular case) call "me".

Written by David N. SchlesingerPalmSource Senior Manager

Are all people this strange at PSRC? Or just the managers?

Surur

Surur, David is the chosen one who will deliver PalmLinux unto the unwashed masses. He's the ONE!

"I haven't had an orthodox career, and I've wanted more than anything to have your respect. The first time I didn't feel it, but this time I feel it, and I can't deny the fact that you like me, right now, you like me!"

RE: Is it too late for Palm to get PalmSource back? Stay tun

It has been shown more than a couple times that concerted effort by message board posters CAN influence the movement of a stock price, especially if the stock is fairly thinly-traded (as PSRC was). There was a 13-year-old (or some other such youngish age) who made a fortune by going online using a stock account set up by his parents and pumping penny stocks using numerous IDs - some outrageous amount of money. The SEC said "No no no!" and threatened him with some sort of action but finally caved in and said "Okay, just don't do it again!" and maybe got him to agree to some sort of fine-like payment. But my memory of the incident is that he actually retained some massive amount of profits and giggled all the way to the bank (since he actually apparently violated no laws!).

So, yes, one CAN influence stock prices with message board posts.

But, again, I've never had a PSRC position nor intend to have one so ==I== do it for entertainment!

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