Rumor is a rumor is a rumor is a rumor

Good Morning, Broncos fans! As you might have noticed, we set up a free agency rumor tracker last night, once word came that Denver is interested in Louis Delmas.

As always, there figures to be an endless supply of Broncos-related rumors over the coming weeks, with free agency and the 2014 league year set to begin just three weeks from today (at 4pm ET).

We'll do our best to sift through it all, but of course, the trick will be in trying to separate legitimate rumors (oxymoron?) from pure speculation.

Of course, this is a hopelessly impossible task, as there's no real way of knowing which reports have any truth behind them.

Smokescreens come from all directions - from teams, agents, and sometimes even players themselves.

It may be fun to wonder about every available player joining the Broncos, but we'll leave that to the fan boys.

Most readers should know by now that we've never sought access to players or the team, and don't ever profess to have any inside information. Because we don't.

So, this months long exercise will be about applying our best educated guesses to the news that's out there, while taking into consideration the sources and yes, their specific verbiage.

Just a glimpse into our thought process (which will, as with anything, evolve with time):

In the case of Delmas, Jason La Canfora wrote, "Atlanta and Denver among the interested teams." There's no ambiguity there - La Canfora writes that the Broncos are interested - so Delmas is on our tracker. Now, JLC could be dead wrong, but we have to work with what we've got.

Meanwhile, Clifton Brown (formerly of the Sporting News and the Times) says the Broncos are a "potential suitor" for Ravens linebacker Daryl Smith (h/t AldenBrown). Honestly, this couldn't be written any worse, in terms of clarity. Brown doesn't say whether he's relying upon real information from a source, or his own guesswork. The worst thing we could do is play the telephone game, and write that Denver is interested in Smith. Someone will surely do so, but it won't be us, not until something clearer is reported.

All that said, please email us with any rumors that you happen to see online (we don't always read comments, so email is best). Again, our process will evolve, and perhaps we'll have a page or section devoted to only somewhat unsubstantiated rumors.

Broncos

Happy 70th Birthday to Pat Bowlen, who has turned us all into a bunch of spoiled, entitle brats over his thirtysomething years owning the Broncos. Thanks, Mr. B.

Jeff Legwold says the Broncos may try to upgrade their pass blocking at LG, with Zane Beadles set to become a UFA; he also reports that Ryan Clady is doing well in his recovery from foot surgery, and that moving Orlando Franklin inside is still a consideration.

News

Obviously, Richie Incognito couldn't stay away from his Twitter machine for long. This time, he's back with a stream of apologies. Dude clearly needs help.

Tight ends Jimmy Graham of New Orleans and Dennis Pitta of Baltimore may file grievances against their teams if they're tendered tight end franchise tags, which are significantly cheaper than those for wide receivers. Robert Mays thinks these players have a legitimate beef, and we think he's right.

Williams able to work out, meet with coaches; Fox says Holliday will get another crack at PR; heat is again on A.J. and Norv; Holmgren out as Browns head; Suggs coming off PUP list

It's a pretty well known problem in economics. Most of the studies (to be fair not all) have found that the problem is less pronounced then the MLB and way better then the NBA (which is the worst), but it still exists.

The best place to look is at Harvard economics. Once upon a time, this was a staple question for papers turned in by students in economics projects.

Posted by ItsAllOverSnottyFans on 2014-02-18 18:29:27

Would love to see him take less to stay in Denver, but hard to blame Decker. If he had made tens of millions on previous contracts it would be one thing, but given the way the NFL churns through players I can understand why Decker would want to make sure he got one big guaranteed payday while he can.

Posted by MattR on 2014-02-18 17:36:19

After waiting this long for Moreno to finally show a full season of productivity, it is going to be hard to say goodbye. But if he is looking for a top dollar RB contract (as he should be), I say let him go and hope that Anderson, Ball, or a new Bronco can replace him.

Posted by iamafreeman on 2014-02-18 16:58:32

You know what rumors are like--like a jar full of moths. Once they escape, they're all over the place.Rhys Bowen

Posted by iamafreeman on 2014-02-18 16:42:01

Sounds like Decker knows he's going to be gone. Willing to "entertain discussions" about returning to Denver, but will be guided by "doing what's right by his family," doesn't sound like someone who's prepared to give a big hometown discount.

"The long term stats just show over and over that players regress to their mean when given long term deals."Do you have the numbers to back that up, or is that just your impression?

Posted by AldenBrown on 2014-02-18 15:34:20

Long live the spoiled entitled brats! hahaha Thanks, Mr. B, and many happiest returns of the day!

Posted by broncosmontana on 2014-02-18 14:55:17

As a rule, I never believe performance in contract years. The long term stats just show over and over that players regress to their mean when given long term deals. I love what Moreno did this year - and he played a much larger part then needed, but we have very little money due to contracts with Manning and Champ. If we don't change either of their contracts we have $27,000,000 in cap space and $32,000,000 in real money. That makes it awfully tough to pull in missing pieces, and maintain the status quo.

So we need to get 2 FAs to cover team needs from DE, ILB, CB, S. If so, we can upgrade at all the needs positions thru FA and Draft (if desired players are available). Yes, we've been fortunate to find late rd or FA gems, but we can't be expecting that each yr.

Posted by Orange_and_Blue on 2014-02-18 13:04:43

I understand he saw a lot of soft fronts but I just think he was pivotal in the Manning led offense.. More his pass pro and catching out of the backfield.. but I guess to my untrained eye he is more replaceable then I figure.

Posted by Lucas LePrey on 2014-02-18 12:16:51

I don't think Peyton Manning's contract gets restructured again. They did that last year and what it amounted to was taking guaranteed money and moving it around so the "dead money" hit came in a later season. I don't see the Broncos doing that again, because it would mean punting the hit into 2015, and that's when the Broncos will have more players up for extension, who are ones the Broncos would like to retain.

Bailey, on the other hand, has no guaranteed money, except for a $1 million roster bonus due on a certain date (I don't remember it off the top of my head) and will be a free agent in 2015. Therefore, the Broncos can safely ask Bailey to take a pay cut or release him, because they will incur no "dead money" penalty, so long as the move is done before the roster bonus comes due.

Remember, releasing Chris Kuper and Joel Dreessen will help with the cap space as well, along with release or restructuring Jacob Tamme's deal. It makes sense to restructure Tamme because his "dead money" hit isn't that high, so the Broncos could take a portion to apply to 2015 and it would have minimal impact on the cap space that season.

Restructuring deals can help, but you have to weigh in the short-term and long-term implications of doing so. Certainly we want the Broncos to win a Super Bowl in 2014, but we also want the Broncos to remain a playoff contender in the post-Peyton era, and that can only happen if we ensure we have cap space in future seasons to keep the younger players we want to be part of the long-term picture.

Posted by Bob Morris on 2014-02-18 12:13:35

I think he's brilliant. Been a fan of his since before the draft. If he doesn't get offered a mega bucks deal. He could be back but it would require him to value a ring over playing time and dollars.

Personally I'm now resigned to him going

Posted by Mike Birtwistle on 2014-02-18 12:08:32

The Broncos would probably like to have him back, but they also view him as replaceable or they would be making overtures to resign him. As great as he was this year, Moreno wore down at the end of the season, even when he fell into a pretty equal carry share with Ball down the stretch. One thing to keep in mind is how many of Moreno's carries came against seven man fronts or after audibles by Manning. I think Moreno is going to find a soft market, so I hope we can bring him back, but it will only take one team desperate at running back to overpay him.

Posted by Yahmule on 2014-02-18 11:59:44

He was terrific this season, but the Broncos clearly view him as replaceable. This is evidenced by their willingness to let him go test the larket. Knowshon has shown a tendency to wear down at the end the the year, even with Montee moving into a pretty even carry share with him down the stretch. He also did most of his damage against seven man fronts. I would like to see him return because I don't think Hillman will ever really pan out and CJ Anderson looks like a minor piece of the back rotation at best. If Moreno leaves, they will add a veteran or draft another back on day three. I think Moreno is going to find a soft market, but it only take one desperate team.

Posted by Yahmule on 2014-02-18 11:53:12

The interesting bit in there is a possible restructure of Manning's contract. I just don't see us successful at the superbowl unless we radically increase the depth of this team, particularly along the o-line, corners and safeties. It's not feasable that we can do this without at bear minimum addressing the Champ contract, and ideally tackling the two most expensive contracts - Manning and Champ.

Posted by ItsAllOverSnottyFans on 2014-02-18 11:52:13

Anyone else see Moreno as a priority? I know Ball played well at the end.. but Moreno was the unsung hero of that offense.. he just won games.. clutch catches out of the backfield (something ball didn't show) strong yardage on first down.. good protection.. and really became a leader on that O... I know its most likely reality but I think we might miss him more then we think.

Posted by Lucas LePrey on 2014-02-18 11:41:14

AW, I wanted to speculate wildly!

Posted by Mike Birtwistle on 2014-02-18 11:33:14

The Doug Powell letter is a nice rebuke to those who claim that what happened in Miami is simply what happens when you put a bunch of young men together for a long period of time. IIRC, John Tomasik made a similar point about the military when this all broke.

Posted by AldenBrown on 2014-02-18 11:30:31

"The worst thing we could do is play the telephone game, and write that Denver is interested in Smith." That was prescient. This site takes it from "expected to show interest" to "to be interested," with no explanation how it got there.http://milehighmaniac.com/2014...