Wednesday, January 04, 2012

2011 N.L. Relievers

As I watched the N.L. Tout Wars auction unfold last March my perception was that the closer prices were higher than normal. But it turns out that this wasn't the case.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2011

#

Name

$

SAL

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2010

1

Carlos Marmol

$13

20

-8

21

20

20

21

$22

2

Brian Wilson

$14

20

-6

20

20

20

17

$24

3

Heath Bell

$19

19

-1

19

19

20

23

$24

4

Francisco Rodriguez

$14

16

-1

13

17

17

16

$16

5

John Axford

$22

15

7

14

16

16

15

$17

6

J.J. Putz

$21

14

7

15

15

13

9

$11

7

Huston Street

$11

14

-3

11

14

17

14

$12

8

Joel Hanrahan

$20

13

7

8

15

16

13

$10

9

Jonathan Broxton

$1

12

-11

11

14

12

12

$10

10

Ryan Franklin

-$5

12

-17

11

13

13

12

$16

Average

$13

16

-3

14

16

16

15

$16

From 2008-2010, the 10 most expensive closers were paid $18 on average. Last year they dropped a full $2 per pitcher to $16. For once, it seemed like the market was reacting less to the need to buy a closer - at any price - and more to the quality (or lack thereof) among the pitchers available.

The reason Ithoughtthat closer prices had spiked is that CBS really decided that they didn't like any of these guys last year.

Ten Highest N.L. Reliever Prices by Expert League 2008-2011

CBS

LABR

TOUT

2008

$17

$18

$19

2009

$19

$18

$18

2010

$20

$17

$18

2011

$14

$16

$16

While LABR and Tout were scaling back on what they pay closers, CBS was giving the them raises. Until 2011. Then they decided that these elite relievers could go pound sand.

In particular, CBS scaled back after the "big three" of Bell, Marmol and Wilson. They tieRotoman on Marmol and LABR and Tout on Wilson. CBS did tie LABR on Putz, so I suppose they did "spend" a little more money.

With so little money floating around by the expert leagues, you'd thinkRotoman would clean up here. But no, he also scales back, and only buys Bell outright. LABR ties Tout on K-Rod, Axford, and Franklin and gets Broxton outright. Tout Wars is left with Hanrahan and Street.

Paying $16 per pitcher for a group that earned $16 per pitcher seems vanilla, and not worthy of comment. But this does defy the idea that the experts sneer at reliever earnings and insist on paying for saves at any cost. This is not so here. The market (andRotoman) is more than a little scared of these guys, and would rather toss saves overboard than pay a dollar more than what they think these guys will earn (in Tout Wars, that's whatRotoman,Lenny Melnick/Paul Greco and I did, in fact, at the auction).

As we all know, if you cast saves aside (or cheap out on them), you had better find some help later on.

Next 10 Most Expensive (11-20) N.L. Relievers 2011

#

Name

$

SAL

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2010

11

Brad Lidge

$2

12

-11

11

12

14

8

$12

12

Leo Nunez

$13

12

1

9

11

15

10

$14

13

Craig Kimbrel

$26

11

15

12

14

8

6

$6

14

Drew Storen

$23

11

11

9

14

11

9

$6

15

Francisco Cordero

$19

11

8

11

10

12

13

$15

16

Brandon Lyon

-$2

10

-12

9

10

10

10

$13

17

Jonny Venters

$15

7

8

4

9

8

6

$12

18

Aroldis Chapman

$5

7

-1

4

10

6

3

$3

19

Hong-Chih Kuo

-$4

5

-9

4

6

5

7

$17

20

Luke Gregerson

$4

4

0

2

6

3

3

$13

Average

$10

9

1

8

10

9

8

$11

These pitchers break even, but this really is a feast-or-famine proposition. Kimbrel and Storen earn nearly half of the dough here.

Something missing from this group is the closers-in-waiting. Venters was the best attempt at it, but nearly all of his value came from the other four categories.

LABR really went nuts for the CIWs. In addition to Kimbrel and Storen, they bought Venters, Chapman and Gregerson. They also got part of Lyon, so they clearly like relievers. Tout Wars jumps in on the remaining closers - Lidge and Nunez - whileRotoman gets Cordero and rolls the dice on Kuo.

But - like I said - the closers-in-waiting are missing here. Where are they?

Not here either. Melancon is the only one. Fernando Salas was a 33-cent pitcher (purchased in LABR only) so has an average salary of $0. Javy Guerra was not purchased by any of the expert leagues.

I was of the mindset after the Tout Wars auction that you shouldn't bother spending $3-4 on a closer-in-waiting when you can get one for $1-2. The data seem to support this point. Madson was the only success story in terms of saves (10 or more saves). The rest of these guys produced good stats, but didn't get saves - which is why Rotisserie owners spend more than $1-2 on relievers.

If you doubt this, look at the earnings column ($) in the charts above. The 31st-40th most expensive pitchers were nearly as good as the 21st-30th most expensive. Spending $3 on a reliever didn't increase your odds on landing 20+ saves in the end game. But - more importantly - it didn't increase your odds on getting better earnings from these valuable middle relievers. Saves or no, those rate stats matter.

As I noted in my American League post, you do want to save some room for one or two of these relievers at the back of your roster. Getting $16 worth of stats for $4 is a winning play, and you're not going to find this much success across the board on end game starting pitchers or bottom-of-the-barrel hitters. I recommend spending less money - not more - on these pitchers. I bought Marshall and Betancourt in Tout Wars last year. While I didn't hit big on saves, I picked up $24 worth of stats for $2. My pitching staff screwed the pooch last year in Tout Wars, but my bullpen kept me competitive in ERA/WHIP far longer than I had any rights to be otherwise.