Like longer lives and women's rights, the steady spread of education always seemed like one of those social tides that would never turn. After churches and school boards conquered illiteracy, the secondaries opened and the leaving age edged up. In time there were technical colleges, new universities and – at the other end of the age range – nursery provision. The phenomenon of ever more people spending ever longer learning seemed no more reversible than the industrial revolution. The young Tony Blair, whose caution precluded most spending commitments, felt no compunction about promising education a rising share of national income. This was not a question of ideology – it was the way the world was going.

The days of "education, education, education" seem suddenly distant after two developments this week. First it emerged that early applications for university were sharply down, the likely result of young people pausing at the prospect of the £9,000 fees they are being asked to pay. It is too early to know whether this will follow through into the final numbers heading for college, but if it does, the downward jolt in a previously rising trend of early applications could prove an early indicator of a historic reversal. Second, the Institute for Fiscal Studies crunched the numbers on the education budget, and warned of cuts unprecedented in modern times. The slice of the economy dedicated to learning will return to roughly where it was when Mr Blair promised to raise it.

At one level, this is no surprise – it is the sort of calculation Britain is growing used to. David Cameron never promised to exempt education from the pain, as he did with health, and so there will of course be a squeeze. It will not, however, be equally shared but concentrated on the first and final stages. Forget all the research evidence and the political cant about the "crucial early years": infants' services are in for a hammering. Forget, too, the planned increase in the participation age from 16 to 18, since it seems to have slipped the minds of ministers when they imposed deep cuts on this group. If all youths really are to be kept learning for longer, it will have to be learning on the cheap.

Children's centre and college alike are being sacrificed to protect the classroom from the worst pain. Thanks to the Lib Dems' pupil premium, around half of schools may avoid outright cuts, but the party may not get much gratitude for damage limitation. Meanwhile, Conservative free schools may be popular in the few places that have them, but in most towns cash-strapped schools will be struggling with a growing pupil cohort. Both parties will be saddled with explaining how the old presumption of ever more learning fell victim to the cuts.