SACRAMENTO, CALIF.--California's Legislature engages in budget brinksmanship nearly every year, but this time the stakes are higher, the problems more intractable, and Gov. Gray Davis is more politically debilitated than ever.

In short, this time it's serious.

"People are nervous," said Jack Kyser, a public policy economist based in Los Angeles more than 30 years. "There's a real chance for a meltdown that could have rippling effects throughout the nation. This is something of a different magnitude than we've seen before."

With a deadline of midnight Monday looming for the passage of a new budget, the Democratic governor and the Republican minority in the Legislature are deadlocked over Davis' demand for further tax increases.

Only three years ago California was riding a wave of prosperity that was the envy of the nation. But runaway spending and a slumping economy have brought the Golden State to the brink of insolvency, with a deficit that could swell to nearly $40 billion by next July, or more than one-third of all state spending last year.

For the first time in history, the state is operating almost completely on borrowed money. California already has the worst credit rating in the country, and officials say the state cannot borrow any more until a new budget is passed.

At the same time Davis is trying to forge a budget compromise, he is fighting off an attempt to oust him that is almost certain to go before the voters in the fall. He could become the first governor in California history to face a recall election.

The politically crippled governor is at a further disadvantage in the budget crisis because there is no surplus from which he can dole out money to get his way with the Legislature.

Budget stalemates are nothing new across the country and in California they are so routine they barely register with voters.

Gridlock is so familiar that businesses that supply the state with everything from gasoline to fresh vegetables build the uncertainty into their financial plans, knowing they will eventually be paid. Even state workers who will go without pay when the current budget expires Monday can get no-interest loans from their credit union.

But clearly, there are signs that the problems this year are bigger and more complicated.

The state's controller has warned that California has enough cash to last only through the middle of August.

State managers issued nearly 10,000 layoff warnings last week, some to police, teachers and prison guards. Billions of dollars owed to nursing homes, community clinics and hospitals will go unpaid.

Tom Seivert, a physician's assistant at a Sacramento clinic, said services for the poor will be delayed or not performed at all.

California is one of the few states to require two-thirds approval of a budget, and although Democrats hold big majorities in both houses, they cannot pass a budget without GOP votes.

This super majority rule is cited as the reason the Legislature has approved only four budgets on time the last 22 years. Last year, partisan wrangling caused the budget to be delayed a record 76 days.

Some progress has been made. Lawmakers trimmed $12 billion from the shortfall this spring and the governor recently raised $4 billion by tripling the car tax. Davis still wants an additional $4.2 billion in tax increases to balance the budget this year.

Last year, Davis vetoed a bill by Cedillo that would have provided licenses for the undocumented, a hot-button issue for many Latinos, who see it as an immigrant rights issue. In the process, Davis lost Cedillo's endorsement and helped depress Latino voter turnout in the state.

Now, as the governor fights for his political life, Cedillo speaks out against the recall with all the passion of a diehard Davis supporter.

"This is a movement put together by extremists in the state who want to set back government," Cedillo says. "It's disruptive and it's a bad precedent. We have to commit ourselves to fight it."

Cedillo knows the governor cannot now afford to alienate Latinos, who, according to polls, are less likely to want to get rid of him, and helped him win re-election last November by a mere five percentage points over Republican Bill Simon.

The most recent survey of the Public Policy Institute of California shows that 46 percent of Latinos reject the recall and 37 percent support it -- better for Davis than the 51 percent of the general voting population that want him out and the 43 percent who would keep him.

At first, Cedillo is evasive when asked about the chances for his driver's license bill this year. "The bill is going forward, we'll continue to negotiate," he says. But later: "My expectation is we'll get a bill this year."

"When the driver's license bill comes up he's going to sign it, and you can thank the recall for that," says political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe. "(The recall) is going to influence his behavior, what he signs and what he doesn't. It's driving the whole budget process on both sides."

The governor knows that he cannot afford to have a Latino appear on the recall ballot, which is why it was so important for the Democratic leadership to convince lieutenant governor Cruz Bustamante to bow out of an hypothetical recall election.

"If Bustamante runs, will Latinos come out in droves to vote Davis out, to get the first Latino governor in modern history?" Jeffe asks. "Maybe."

If Latinos and other major democratic constituencies were not excited about Davis in November -- his support among Latino voters dropped from 80 percent in his first election to 65 percent in his second -- there's not much to excite them now that budget realities have meant cuts in social programs, the arts and Medical funding.

But for unions, many of whom represent mostly Latino workers, keeping Davis maybe better than risking a Republican governor or one of the two possible democratic candidates who fare better in the polls: Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Bustamante.

In the event of a recall election, "the risk is too great that we'll get somebody that will be less supportive of workers," says Eliseo Medina, executive vice president of the Service Employees International Union's (SEIU). "We can't afford a Republican governor or someone who isn't sympathetic to immigrant rights."

Most union leadership and legislators like Cedillo would much rather have Davis in a difficult situation and extract concessions from him in exchange for their support than risk the election of others who may not need the Latino vote as much.

"The senator (Feinstein) ... what can I say?" Medina says. "I don't think she's very pro immigrant." Davis, on the other hand, "may now be in a position to listen better" to the union's concerns.

Many Latinos remember that when Bustamante was an assemblyman, he voted in favor of requiring legal status in order to have a driver's license.

Sen. Feinstein, considered the best chance for Democrats to keep the governorship should well-financed Republican candidates appear on a recall ballot, has so far said she is not running.

But if the recall does qualify, and especially if it qualifies for the more Democratic-leaning electorate of the March primary, Davis's people know they have a better chance to win if he is the only Democrat on the ballot. Although risky, their strategy is to label the recall effort a Republican right-wing conspiracy, resurrecting the ghost of infamous former Gov. Pete Wilson and his anti-immigrant Proposition 187.

Nobody knows how that will work if moderate, moneyed and famous Republicans like Arnold Schwarzenegger or Richard Riordan enter the race.

But one thing is certain: When undocumented immigrants finally get their driver's licenses in the next few months, they'll have the Republicans and the recall leaders to thank.

At some point you have to admit there's a problem, when the government can only support itself during the peak of a stock market bubble of historic proportions, originating within the borders of your own state. Otherwise, it's another "tough" year, hard to balance the budget and make (governmental) ends meet.

California will come crying for a bailout at some point. I say that we only allow readmittance to the union if they agree to pass certain Constitutional amendments ending socialism and protecting the borders.

So the rest of the country will have to support a huge state full of Mexicans?

Southern State governments were basically judged to have committed suicide by seceding. I suggest that turnabout is fair play and that the California government has basically committed suicide by its actions and that we need a radical reconstruction plan. Liberals should be denied the vote and not allowed to hold office until they sign an oath of allegiance to the US and get a pardon from George Bush.

"California will come crying for a bailout at some point. I say that we only allow readmittance to the union if they agree to pass certain Constitutional amendments ending socialism and protecting the borders."

No bailouts! Let them and their Mexicano's and their spawn, go down in flames!

19
posted on 06/30/2003 10:26:00 AM PDT
by Pubbie
(Bill Owens for Prez and Jeb as VP in '08.)

With a deadline of midnight Monday looming for the passage of a new budget, the Democratic governor and the Republican minority in the Legislature are deadlocked over Davis' demand for further tax increases.

These damn illegals are one of the main reasons the state is going broke. No mention of that in this or any other article. Still, they are looking for what they can get out of this when their sorry butts shouldn't even be there to begin with. My blood is boiling over this, and I don't even live in California. If the will of the voters had gone through via prop 187, these parasites would not have been allowed to bleed the state dry. Their sense of entitlement is unbelievable. Damn them all.

That's not a rumor. It is well known and widely discussed fact that the Driver's Licenses (which require a thumbprint, digital photo, address and DOB) are the only way to track down and deport illegal aliens. The info on the IDs issued by the Mexican consulate cannot be verified or tracked. Why else do you think anyone would give driver's licenses to known illegal aliens? The magnetic strip on the back of the card contains a field, that when flagged, instantly alerts any person running the card that the holder is illegal. Issuing driver's licenses to illegals is the best way to remove (deport) a large number of welfare recipiants and get CA back in financial shape. Any illegal aliens using a CA driver's license might as well consider it a one way ticket over the border. (But don't tell anyone, let them apply so we can nab em)

But I know Democrat policies will work if we just stick with 'em. I mean...they've just gotta. I mean...where's your compassion?

Socialism for example. I just know it'll work.

And what about all those productive immigrants from other countries who just want a better life for themselves and contribut so much to society; just because they're illegal immigrants doesn't mean they're like criminals or something.

I know. Let's try it on a national basis! Let's elect Gray Davis President--of the United States. I mean...there's no way the United States of America is gonna go under...you know what I mean? It's worth a try.

The car tax hike only begins to kick in this September, so that $4 bil hasn't been raised yet.

"When undocumented immigrants finally get their driver's licenses in the next few months, they'll have the Republicans and the recall leaders to thank."

Although my support for the recall is, at best, lukewarm, this just gave me a second reason to vote for it (Jefferson's admonition that a little revolution every now and again is beneficial). Seems to me the only way to block what Cedillo wants is to get a Republican in the governorship post haste.

This is so glaring....And no mention of the Federal Border, and who is responsible for it's security.

Sorry, this is all on California, if they even try to blame this in the feds its only to get a bailout. California has done everything to undermine enforcement along the border by encouraging massive illegal immigration into their state at every level.

They have protected them by forbidding their state and local employees from cooperating with federal immigration authorities. They have passed countless laws to make it easer for illegal immigrants to live there. They have funded countless programs with tax payers money to further their social restructuring.

I do not blame the illegal aliens for any of this (they have no control over the purse strings). The full responsibility rests with the elected officials who are responsible but as yet unaccountable for their greed and folly.

California is a failed state and there needs to be significant suffering of the voting public before they start to take their voting responsibility seriously. Only then can or should reconstruction begin.

This is what passes for leadership in the California Legislature:

Sen. Gil Cedillo, a stalwart Latino Democrat from Los Angeles, knows an opportunity when he sees it. A major budget crisis, rock-bottom approval ratings and a powerful recall movement -- give Latinos the chance to push forward an issue foremost on their agenda: driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants.

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