Gold hits 2-1/2-week high on Cyprus bailout worries

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Last Updated: Mon, Mar 18, 2013 11:54 hrs

Gold rose above $1,600 for the first time in more than two weeks on Monday as a radical bailout package for Cyprus threatened to trigger fresh turmoil in the euro zone, driving investors to seek safety in gold.

But a firm dollar and general perception of an economic recovery quickly snuffed out the rally, sending gold below the key resistance level of $1,600.

The euro zone agreed on Saturday to hand Cyprus a bailout worth 10 billion euros, but forced the country's depositors to pay up to 10 percent on their savings, triggering fears that it could set off bank runs in other countries.

This came after the euro zone had enjoyed a few months of relative calm, investors had grown more confident in the economic recovery and banks had started paying back the crisis loans handed out by the European Central Bank.

"The Cyprus crisis is bearish euro and bullish dollar, which is mathematically negative for gold," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

"But it does raise the question how the ECB is going to continue to allow tightening of credit, which has been happening as a result of LTRO repayment."

The ECB pumped over a trillion euros into money markets in two long-term refinancing loans (LTROs), in December 2011 and February 2012, to provide liquidity for banks.

Friesen said if the ECB could turn on the tap again and help its economy by pumping more cash into the system, that would help gold, which thrives on ultra-loose monetary policies.

Spot gold rose to a 2-1/2-week high of $1,608.30 an ounce earlier in the day, before easing to $1,597.76 by 0650 GMT, up 0.4 percent from the previous close.

U.S. gold also hit a 2-1/2-week high, at $1,607.6 an ounce, before paring gains to trade at $1,596.60.

"People are waiting for price dip to buy in, while scrap flow is very limited," said Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Limited.

Investors will closely watch a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to assess the central bank's attitude towards aggressive monetary stimulus. Economists expected the Fed to keep buying bonds for the rest of the year to aid the still frail economic recovery.

Interest in exchange-traded gold funds remained lukewarm on Friday. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest gold ETF, resumed the decline after a two-day pause, down 3.311 tonnes to 1,232.996 tonnes, the lowest since October 2011.

Speculators raised net long positions in U.S. gold in the week to March 12 from a more than five-year low of 39,631 contracts to 43,195 contracts, but also increased short bets on gold, data from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

"There is a chance that gold was oversold and reflected too hawkish a view on policy and too optimistic a few on growth in the near term," said Friesen.