Filmstudy - Filmstudy is a sophisticated and comprehensive statistical analysis of the Ravens defense that incorporates a participation-by-play tracking system. This unique analysis is the brain child of the author and provides our readers with the real story behind the Ravens’ top end defensive results in the National Football League. Make Russellstreetreport.com the source for all of your Ravens football news and the forum to talk about what the Ravens fans want to hear most.

Lombardi’s Way - A column from the 24×7 founder that focuses on the Ravens, the NFL, Baltimore, the world of sports or life’s inspirations.

Battle Plans - During the season, you can expect to find thoughtful analysis in each of our Game Previews. We bring out the chalk and then talk X’s and O’s. In the offseason, Dev Panchwagh — The Scientist, digs beneath the surface and serves up insightful commentary on issues facing the Ravens and the NFL. School is in session!

There is a sweet spot for the Ravens’ front office when selecting between 98 and 137. It’s there, in the 4th round, that the Ravens may have had their greatest relative success.

1. Jarret Johnson 2003 (109): A. Johnson was originally drafted as a DT and played there in 2003. It still shocks me to see his size that season, but he lost a mess of weight and was among the NFL’s best edge setters for 8 of his 9 seasons with the Ravens.

2. Edwin Mulitalo 1999 (129): A-. With the exception of Ben Grubbs, Newsome has never reached above the 56th overall selection for an interior offensive lineman. That’s conventional football wisdom and Yanda, Mulitalo, Rabach, Brown, Gradkowski, etc. are all fruits of selections made in round 3 or later. Mule was a solid run blocker who got props from John Madden when he and Pat Summeral did the Ravens/Cowboys game in 2000. The Ravens won 27-0 and much of the 2nd half was spent tellustrating the outstanding run blocking of Ogden and Mulitalo (who happened to graduate from the same High School as Madden).

3. Dennis Pitta 2010 (114): B+. He appears to be Flacco’s best friend on the team and has developed a solid connection as a receiver. He has good hands, but can’t block. This is the last cheap year he’ll play for the Ravens, so the value of any additional years beyond 2013 will be reduced.

4. Jason Brown 2005 (124): B+. Brown played G and C well for 4 seasons with the Ravens (45 starts, 54 games) before leaving for a monster deal with the Rams. The Ravens signed Birk to replace Brown and Matt was better at less cost.

5. Le’Ron McClain 2007 (137): B. He never had an impressive YPC in his time with the Ravens, but he had an outstanding record of converting 3rd and short for the 2008 team and had his averages reduced by the number of leads he effectively protected during Flacco’s rookie year. He made the Pro Bowl as a fullback in 2008 and 2009, the only appearances as a Raven by any of the 4th round selections. He also caught 70 passes in his 4 seasons. Wisely, Ozzie chose to let him walk after the 2010 season and he has had 93 rushing yards among 204 scrimmage yards since.

6. Edgerton Hartwell 2001 (126): B. The knock on Hartwell as a “system” player is not entirely fair. He was a solid run defender who couldn’t do much in coverage (like most linebackers). His play during Lewis’ absence in 2002 kept the season interesting until the final week. He was also a 2-down contributor to the 2003 defense with 658 snaps (64%) and started all 16 games in 2004 before moving on to Atlanta.

7. Ovie Mughelli 2003 (134): B. Mughelli was a solid lead blocker for Jamal Lewis and special teams player through his first 3 seasons. In 2006, he entered the week 9 game at Tennessee with 16 receiving yards (4 catches) as his total yards from scrimmage in 30 career games. Beginning that week, he would catch 20 passes for 179, rush 12 times for 51 yards, and become an important part of the Ravens offense. Mughelli would become the NFL’s highest-paid fullback the next season when he signed with the Falcons. He played 5 seasons (69 games) there, and despite making the Pro Bowl in 2010, he was never as productive as he was down the stretch in 2006.

8. Brandon Stokley 1999 (106): B. He had 60 catches (15.2 YPC) and 7 regular season TDs to go along with the first TD of SBXXXV. He also ended the Ravens’ 5-game streak without a TD with a catch and run at Cincinnati (2000, week 10). He’s accumulated 384 career catches and is still active. While he never made a Pro Bowl, his 2004 season with Indianapolis (1,077 yards, 10 TDs) was the best of any Raven 4th round selection.

9. Demetrius Williams 2006 (111): B-. He was a big, physical receiver with some speed, but couldn’t stay on the field. Williams and Stokley each played 4 seasons with the team and had very similar career numbers as Ravens (Williams 63 catches, 16.0 YPR, 4 TDs). Williams played just 2 games with Cleveland after leaving the Ravens. I gave Stokley a bump because his loss via FA after the 2002 season may have factored into the comp pick used to draft Sam Koch.

10. Antwan Barnes 2007 (134): C+. Barnes played 481 regular-season snaps in 3 years with the Ravens and had 5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles among 22 tackles. He didn’t have much variety in terms of pass rush moves (primarily speed) and never developed an arsenal like Kruger did during his tenure here. He gave the Ravens a payback with 4 sacks in their week 15 game against the Chargers in 2011.

11. Gino Gradkowski 2012 (98): C. He was a need pick. It appears he will take over as the starting center in 2013. He’s played only 79 snaps to date, so this grade is a function of expectation based in part on the opportunity presented.

12. Dave Zastudil 2002 (112): C-. The 4th round is now thought to be too high to draft a punter, but the Ravens got a dependable and inexpensive player for 4 seasons.

13. Tandon Doss 2011 (123): D. Flacco likes him as a target, but he’s displayed less than ideal hands for a possession receiver. We’ll know much more by the end of 2013.

14. Ron Johnson 2002 (123): D. He played 22 games, including 4 starts in 2002-3. He has a receiving touchdown among 12 career catches, but the play I can recall is him recovering a punt blocked at Cincinnati and returning it for a TD in 2002.

15. Marcus Smith 2008 (106): D. Smith was a fine special teams player who never got started offensively, but was active for 14 games in 2010, long after the pretense he would ever play offense was gone. He got an unexpected chance to play WR as a rookie in the Ravens last 8 games, up to and including the 2008 AFCC at Pittsburgh. In that game he drew a pass interference penalty on Ike Taylor to set up the TD that brought the Ravens within 2 (Q4, 9:32). PFF records him as on the field for 187 offensive snaps that season and as far as I can tell, Flacco targeted him 4 times. He would never record an NFL catch.

16. Tyrus McCloud 1997 (118): D. McCloud was a linebacker active for 23 games (4 starts) in 1997-8. He recovered Derrick Mason’s muffed punt vs. the Oilers in the last game at Memorial Stadium that set up the Ravens’ first TD.

17. Christian Thompson 2012 (130): D-. He is young and plays a position of need, but it’s a major hit to a player’s value to be in The Program. He has a chance to move up if he is given a starting role via injury or plays special teams effectively for the remainder of his rookie deal. However, he’s much less likely to be effective, more likely to be cut, and another offense will likely be the end of his NFL career. I hope I’m wrong about him.

18. David Hale 2008 (133): F. Hale was a G/T swingman who I used to think looked a lot like Gimli the Dwarf from Lord of the Rings. My opinion has since changed. I now think he looks more like Dwalin the Dwarf from The Hobbit. He played just 17 offensive snaps in 18 game activations spanning 2008-9. Those 2 teams had the strongest offensive lines the Ravens have ever fielded.

19. PJ Daniels 2006 (132): F. PJ was a running back who was active for 1 game in 2007.

A few observations about the 4th round

The favorite position of the Ravens’ front office in the 4th round is WR. That’s also the place where they have been largely unsuccessful to date. It’s funny, because they have had a need at WR for much of the franchise’s existence, but have been unable to get it solved.

Conversely, the front office drafted a solid set of linebackers (JJ—originally a DT, Hartwell, Barnes, McCloud)

Of the 19 selections, 8 went on to be starters (Gradkowski should be the 9th) for at least a year and several others played key roles. The Ravens arguably have had greater success in the 4th round than in the 3rd where only 4 of the 15 selections went on to be starters.

Here’s a look at how the Ravens have performed on draft day in a couple other rounds:

About Ken McKusick

Ken comes to us via area message boards where he has consistently posted some of the most insightful and memorable posts that you'll find anywhere. Known as "Filmstudy", Ken is a lifelong Baltimorean and rabid fan of Baltimore sports who grew up about 1 mile from Memorial Stadium. He attended all but a handful of Orioles home games from 1979 through 2001.
Ken bleeds orange in more ways than one. He's a graduate of Syracuse University, where he earned degrees in both Broadcast Journalism and Math and now works locally as an actuary.
The message board member name "Filmstudy" comes from his collection of video from every Ravens game ever played and his player-participation-by-play tracking system for defense that he developed in 2006. This system is the cornerstone of his thoughtful and one-of-a-kind analysis of the complex Ravens defense.
More from Ken McKusick

I really love these analyses, but I would like an additional piece of information. Maybe for each pick, list the five picks taken after in the same draft so we can get a feel for how well the Ravens have been drafting and whether and how often they have left prime talent on the board. I think this would particularly be interesting for Rounds 1-3 for players that received less than passing grades but fairness would dictate you do it for all draftees.
Thanks again for great reporting.

Ken,
(My $.02)...
I think the verdict is INC on Grad and Christian Thompson. At least Grad appears to get his starts this year. Add Doss to that group, but he's gotten some chances to shine, and its been disappointing.
For the most part, I'll agree except for a few.
DWill was a big disappointment after a promising rookie season. He never caught on with another club Got give him a C.
I always found Mule highly overrated in terms of how Ravens fans view him. Good Dude, sure, but he was never a very good pass protector, and he had the luxury of being next to one the GOAT to mask some of his deficiencies. For a 4th rounder, anytime you get a long time starter its at least a B. Don't think he's quite A- material, but a B/B+
I think Stoke should be a little higher b/c he's been a very good receiver for many years. I'd give A- for 4th rounder. Problem with the Ravens is they could never get Brandon's A- performance b/c they had D+ QBs throwing to him.
If there is one pick that has ticked me off more than any other in Ravens History...it was Zast in the 4th. A frickin punter. They are 6th rounders at best. And boy did Touchback Dave sucked. Billick would always punt inside the 40 instead of going for it, and Dave would get his NET 18. Any punter can kick 48/50yds, but the best ones have touch on the short ones. Dave had none. The Ravens get a F from me on that one. Well thank god for Sam.

I know we may disagree on this Film, but I still think Marcus Smith was one of the worst picks the Ravens have ever made. Using a 4th rounder on a guy who was basically a ST's gunner (albeit a decent one) is just really bad value. When I look back on that particular draft, I wonder if he even would have been drafted. I don't think he would have.

It's also interesting that drafts can be evaluated and remembered for different things. I'm reasonably sure few fans recall that our initial draft netted us basically nothing except for the two hall and famers and jermaine lewis. Other drafts weren't as memorable but were extremely successful on a pick by pick basis. If i recall correctly, the 2nd or "Peter boulware" draft was truly outstanding in that sense. Very few wasted picks. I'm scratching my brain to remember if we hit on any picks after the great first two in the flacco-rice draft.

Great stuff as usual. I immediately thought of JJ and mulitalo as well. Very successful with some oddities like 2 very good fullbacks and a punter. Ovie was a heckuva player when he finally secured the job and shone. I personally thought Jason Brown had about the best year of any ravens center in his last season playing on our most outstanding line. I had forgotten the initial "harbaugh" draft which was weighted so heavily towards special teamers like WR marcus smith (as well as zybkowski a round earlier and haruki later on).
It's also interesting that you focus on the initial contract (not that i'm picking on it). I recall a lot of guys like Aubrayo Franklin who were very successful elsewhere after being role players here. So many ways to evaluate drafting. I guess my way is more focused on an eye for talent in terms of identifying productive players.
All in all, the 4th rd. illustrates the ravens skill in the process. Not quite like the first round but it's probably much better than the league average.

yeah, i mentioned that i give credit for the overall career that draft picks have, not just in baltimore, to some degree, so stokley was a good pick, just injury prone with us. I had to agree about zastudil. Awful high for a punter who turned out to be average at best. What's funny is that we might be the only team to actually draft a long snapper! Remember Joe Maese? 5th rd., i think. Agree about Marcus Smith. 4th is awful high for a special teamer................you would hope he could've been picked 2-3 rounds later.

Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment.
Guys that don't contribute on their rookie deal, but then play well elsewhere are exceedingly rare. I wrote an article about various levels of draft "busts" recently and Franklin and Edwards are the only 2 Ravens' draft picks that made a no significant contribution during their rookie deal, but played well anywhere after their rookie deal. In the case of Edwards that was just 1 year.
Check out category 9 in this piece:
http://russellstreetreport.com/filmstudy-novel-system-labeling-draft-busts/

Filmstudy - Filmstudy is a sophisticated and comprehensive statistical analysis of the Ravens defense that incorporates a participation-by-play tracking system. This unique analysis is the brain child of the author and provides our readers with the real story behind the Ravens’ top end defensive results in the National Football League. Make Russellstreetreport.com the source for all of your Ravens football news and the forum to talk about what the Ravens fans want to hear most.

Lombardi’s Way - A column from the 24×7 founder that focuses on the Ravens, the NFL, Baltimore, the world of sports or life’s inspirations.

Battle Plans - During the season, you can expect to find thoughtful analysis in each of our Game Previews. We bring out the chalk and then talk X’s and O’s. In the offseason, Dev Panchwagh — The Scientist, digs beneath the surface and serves up insightful commentary on issues facing the Ravens and the NFL. School is in session!