Oregon State has had a nightmare of a season. It’s tried to fight hard, and it had a moment to almost pull off a shocker against Stanford, but it’s still looking for its first win of the season over an FCS team.

What better time than against the archrival?

Oregon has been wildly inconsistent, but it was able to get by Utah and Arizona over the last few weeks to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. That might not seem like anything amazing for a program that should be shooting for the Pac-12 title every year, but after the 2016 disaster, it’s a step forward.

The last thing the Willie Taggart era needs as it’s just getting started is a loss to that other team. As bad as things have been for Beaver fans, go 2-10, hold it over Duck fans for a full season, and the season is a success.

One Reason Why Oregon Will Win

The rushing offense has gotten rolling again.

It was fine even when QB Justin Herbert was out hurt, but the points weren’t coming. The offense still has a few question marks when it comes to consistency, but last week it ripped up Arizona for 353 yards, and two weeks ago it rolled for 347 against Utah.

But it’s the run defense that’s been the key to the season at times.

Ultra-aggressive, it was able to keep Khalil Tate and Arizona under wraps last week, giving up just 171 yards on the ground. The Oregon State rushing offense needs to work for the offense to go anywhere – there isn’t enough from the Beaver passing attack to overcome the other problems.

Run the ball, keep owning third downs against the worst D in the nation in third down conversion percentage, and stop the run. Do that, and Oregon will have a fun evening.

One Reason Why Oregon State Will Win

Oregon isn’t above giving the ball away.

The Ducks have lost the ball 21 times on the season, going 1-4 on the year when being on the wrong side of the turnover margin. As aggressive and as good as the Oregon D has been at times, it’s not coming up with enough turnovers to make up for the occasional problems on the other side.

Turnover margin has been a huge, huge problem for Oregon State, though, giving it up 25 times on the season. However, the mistakes have slowed down a wee bit.

The Beavers have to be a +2 – at least – and the run defense has to sell out to slow down a hot Royce Freeman.

And yes, the rivalry factor has to kick in. There has to be some magical element here for Oregon State to pull this off – and if it plays like it did against Stanford, it’s possible.

What’s Going To Happen

Royce Freeman will take that rivalry magic and run 43 yards for a score.

One of the hottest backs in the country, he’s hit 100 yards in each of his last five games, roaring past Arizona with four touchdowns and 135 yards. He’ll be keyed on, but he’ll still bust through late with another 100-yard day.

Herbert will be efficient, the defense will own the Oregon State ground game, and Taggart will make the fan base happy.