JOLTS Analysis

JOLTS Analysis - Construction Momentum Revs Up in Early '18

March 2018 Survey Analysis

For a time, it appeared that the pace of growth in the U.S. labor market was beginning to moderate. Last year, the U.S. economy added approximately 2.2
million nonfarm jobs. While that represents perfectly respectable performance, it was the smallest number of net new jobs created since 2012.

The softening in job creation occurred despite elevated numbers of available job openings. With the national unemployment rate standing at 4.1 percent
for five consecutive months, America remains at or near full employment. Predictably, available job openings tend to linger for longer periods as employers
find it increasingly difficult to fill them. All things being equal, that translates into softer employment growth.

JOLTS Analysis - The Question Becomes - How Will All This Work Get Done?

March 2017 Survey Analysis

Employment data characterizing the fourth quarter of 2016 are consistent with expanding construction industry human capital shortfalls. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. added 105,000 net new construction jobs from September 2016 to January 2017. That would represent a decent performance over the course of an entire year. The job growth from September through January, a period of five months, amounts to 1.2 percent employment expansion over that period. This is significantly more rapid that the 0.5 percent growth in U.S. employment tallies across all industries.

Table of Contents

The Question Becomes - How Will All This Work Get Done?

Exhibit 1 - Unemployment Rates, 2002-2016

Exhibit 2 - Total U.S. Construction Hires, January 2006 through December 2016

The construction industry continued its post-recession recovery through the first month of 2016, adding 18,000 net new jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary estimate. This represents the seventh consecutive month of job gains for the industry and brings total construction employment above 6.6 million for the first time since 2008. The industry would likely have reached that milestone earlier, were there not an ongoing shortage of skilled construction workers.

Table of Contents

JOLT Survey Construction Labor Market Recovery Continues

Exhibit 1. Total U.S. Construction Hires, January 2005 through December 2015

Exhibit 2. Hiring and Openings, December 2012 through December 2015

Exhibit 3. Construction Industry Separations, January 2005 through December 2015

The US construction industry continued to recover in 2014. Post-recession construction employment surpassed the 6 million plateau for the first time, though
total construction employment remains more than one million jobs short of the pre-recession high. During 2014's final month, the construction industry
added 44,000 jobs, which means that the construction industry supports 5.7 percent more jobs than it did one year ago. The year-over-year percentage increase
represents the largest construction employment gain since May 2006, which arguably represented the beginning of the end for the nation's housing boom.

Table of Contents

JOLT Survey Paints a Complex Picture

Exhibit 1. Total U.S. Construction Hires, January 2004 through December 2014

Exhibit 2. Hiring and Openings, December 2012 through December 2014

Exhibit 3. Construction Industry Separations, January 2004 through December 2014

The US construction industry remains far from full recovery. Despite that, the industry is increasingly impacted by emerging skills shortages; the products of ongoing retirements, rapidly shifting technologies, and inadequate levels of interest among younger workers. Readers should note that net given job creation in any given month is the product of massive numbers of people being hired and almost equally large numbers of people being released from employment over that same period. All too frequently, the number of US construction jobs actually declines on a monthly or annual basis. When construction adds or loses jobs in a given month, the reported figure is a net change statistic that often obscures the frantic pace of hiring and firing that characterizes the industry.

Table of Contents

JOLT Survey Spolights Emerging Skills Shortages

Exhibit 1. Total U.S. Construction Hires, January 2003 through December 2013

Exhibit 2. Hiring and Openings, December 2010 through December 2013

Exhibit 3. Construction Industry Separations, January 2003 through December 2013

Raffa - Marcum's Nonprofit & Social Sector Group's strength and competitive edge lies in the fact that we provide expertise and superior service across a variety of essential interrelated financial, technology and consulting competencies.

President Donald Trump pledged that his tax law would kill off breaks and complex loopholes for the wealthy. Instead, the overhaul has ushered in a new generation of maneuvers that taxpayers can exploit before Dec. 31 to minimize next year's bills.

The TCJA, signed into law in December 2017, provided sweeping changes affecting almost all businesses and individual taxpayers. One such change related to limitations on businesses deducting transportation fringe benefits related to employee transportation unless the employee recognizes income related to the fringe.

Marcum LLP is one of the largest independent public accounting and advisory services firms in the nation, with offices in major
business markets throughout the U.S., as well as Grand Cayman, China and Ireland.