Garza, O. Perez, Crain also on the radar as talks heat up

Yovani Gallardo can become a baseball household name over the next five weeks, certainly more of one than he has been as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers’ rotation.

Once considered a future ace, the 27-year-old right-hander is still a front-line-type starter when he is right and he's the best the Brewers have right now. Two things will make him an attractive commodity as the July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline nears:

1. He again looks like the pitcher who was an All-Star in 2010 and finished seventh in the Cy Young Award voting in 2011.

2. He's affordable. He'll make $11.25 million next season, and he has a $13 million team option for 2015 with a $600,000 buyout. By the time the deadline rolls around, Gallardo will be owed about $2.6 million this season.

The fact that he can be more than a two-month rental already has scouts flocking to his starts. His no-trade clause, which once covered all teams, has been reduced to 10 teams this season per his contract.

“That Yovani is not a free agent like guys like (Zack) Greinke or Anibal Sanchez last year, he has more value than just two months of a rental,” Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said, “so the package from another team has to be something that will wow me.”

The Brewers are 12 games below .500, 15 games out of first place in the NL Central and 12 1/2 out of a wild-card spot. Crazier things have happened, but the Brewers aren’t counting on coming back even though they made a run last season after dealing Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels.

“This year we just aren’t healthy to expect something like that,” said Melvin, who normally is mum on his deadline plans but has taken a realistic approach this year.

Just because the Brewers “will definitely not be buyers” at the deadline doesn’t necessarily mean they plan to make trades or rebuild. Assuming they don’t find a taker for third baseman Aramis Ramirez ($16 million next season, $15 million mutual option with a $4 million buyout for 2015) and they keep right-hander Kyle Lohse, their most consistent starter this season, the plan is to regroup and contend in 2014. If that is the case, there won’t be a complete teardown and Gallardo will still be seen as a rotation anchor.

It's unlikely Melvin will hold a fire sale, but it is a possibility. First baseman/outfielder Corey Hart is a potential free agent, Ramirez and Lohse could be lost in trades—the Brewers negotiated hard over a no-trade clause with Lohse for this exact reason—and there is the lingering possibility that Ryan Braun will be suspended for much of next season. That would lead the Brewers to be non-contenders again in 2014 and could make them more likely to move Gallardo.

After posting an ugly 5.25 ERA and just five quality stats through his first 13 outings this year, Gallardo has not allowed an earned run in his next three starts covering 21 innings. Then again, two of those starts came against the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros, and his next start will be against the Chicago Cubs. Still, the bounce-back is promising, especially his six shutout innings in Cincinnati vs. the Reds on June 15.

“I can see him being the guy who becomes red-hot in a few weeks (on the trade market),” a major league scout from a National League team told Sporting News. “His stuff is still good but it’s clear now he probably won’t ever be a real top-of-the-rotation guy, but he’s a good No. 2 or a really good third. I don’t know what the Brewers’ plans are with him, but he’s already a guy teams are charting.”

When he's a buyer, Melvin wants to strike early, as he did in 2008 when he acquired CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians more than three weeks before the deadline. As a seller, Melvin is more apt to wait out the market when it’s possible more suitors will be in play. That is especially true in the current playoff landscape where a second wild-card spot gives more teams a reason to buy rather than scrap their seasons.

“Striking early is the buyer’s responsibility,” Melvin said. “At the end of July there are new teams than there are now because a team gets back in it and they feel good and might feel they are one piece away. Two weeks ago everyone was ready to say the Blue Jays were done and now they are back in it.”

Possible suitors for Gallardo, in no particular order:

Baltimore Orioles. They are on his no-trade list, but Gallardo obviously could waive that.

San Francisco Giants. Only Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are under contract for next season. They have club options for Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito.

San Diego Padres. They’re contenders again, they’re looking for an affordable arm, and Gallardo’s Mexican heritage could help ticket sales.

Again, the Brewers don’t have to move Gallardo or anyone else if they believe they can contend next season. For now, the team is in a holding pattern and weighing whether their window extends into next season or if they are looking a few years down the road.

“For us to win games moving forward, Yovani should be a part of that, but some teams get in pennant races and need that one guy to get them over the hump,” Melvin said. “It’s not a slam dunk that I’m going to trade Yovani or Lohse, but you never know. There’s a lot we have to consider about our club right now.

“While I wouldn’t say we’re ‘selling,’ there are players I would move, players we have available that could help other teams.”

Recent trades and free-agent signings have depleted Milwaukee’s once-rich farm system and brought the payroll (now about $83 million) to a level owner Mark Attanasio would like to lower. Trading veterans for prospects, while likely ensuring the team won’t contend next year, would replenish the system and lower the payroll.

Beyond Gallardo, the Brewers also have relief pitching to offer, namely John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez. Rodriguez was a mid-July acquisition in 2011, and his effectiveness in setting up Axford helped push the team to the NLCS that year.

Axford will be arbitration-eligible next season and Rodriguez will be a free agent after this season. Both have gotten hot at the right time: Axford has not allowed a run in his last 17 1/3 innings, while K-Rod has allowed one in 15 1/3 since his season debut on May 16.

“Those guys were untouchable in 2011 and they might be pitching better right now,” Melvin said, taking an opportunity to hype his commodities. “Bullpens are as important as anything at the deadline.”

Stock rising

Matt Garza is healthy again, which means he’s not long for the Chicago Cubs’ rotation. He can be a difference maker for a contending team, as he showed a couple years back with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Garza has allowed one run over his last two starts (15 innings), but as with Gallardo, that work has come against weak lineups—the New York Mets and the Astros. That doesn’t matter, because if Garza stays healthy he’ll be a top target for plenty of teams.

Be careful with …

… Oliver Perez, because … it’s Oliver Perez, for goodness sake. His popular stats are nice—an 0.98 ERA in 27 2/3 innings, 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings—and, as has been noted all season, he’s throwing hard again (his fastball averages about 93 mph). He also has the best strand rate in the majors at 99.4 percent.

As important, this is the second consecutive season he’s thrown well out of the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen, and he’ll make less than $330,000 for the final two months.

There is a “but” here, of course. Perez’s WHIP is 1.27 because he is allowing 4.6 walks per nine, and his 49.2 fly-ball percentage is among the highest in the majors for relievers, which could be disastrous in a smaller park. Not only that, but that strand rate is probably not sustainable over his next 30 innings.

An important week for …

… Jesse Crain. The Chicago White Sox right-hander has arguably been the best reliever in the majors this season, but manager Robin Ventura is swiping him like an American Express Black card. Crain is tied for fourth in the American League with 36 relief appearances. It probably is hard for Ventura to resist, given Crain’s 0.52 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 11.8 Ks per nine.

Crain, who can be a free agent after this season, allowed three unearned runs Sunday, ending a streak of 29 consecutive scoreless innings. Sunday’s performance might have been a sign of fatigue, considering Crain threw 105 pitches over a seven-day span, including 29 and 30 pitches on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

If Ventura keeps running Crain out to the mound at that rate, scouts will be watching how he responds.