Fan blog: Predictions on what Crane will and won’t do

Considering how little we know about Crane and what his plans are, doing predictions like this are a real shot in the dark. Probably no more than wishes in a lot of places, but I’ll be curious to see how some early predictions pan out.

Will…

…keep Wade around until the end of the year. Odds are he’ll be let go right after the end of the season. I think Wade would probably do alright if given a chance, but the fans are already VERY sour on Wade. However, Wade has already had a couple of strong drafts and has put together an excellent scouting/development team. Considering that will be Crane’s focus, the possibility remains that we might see Wade a little longer.

…show Tal Smith the door. He’s been with the team for the last 16 years as Drayton’s right hand man. Crane will need his own right hand man and that looks to be Postolos. If we’re lucky he’ll get Tal to take that damn hill with him.

…put more emphasis on the draft and player development than we’ve seen since the late 80’s. The Astros were competitive for so long because of the quality of the farm system. Crane understands that and will ensure that everyone understands that the drafts are the most critical part of the operation. (Aka…the anti-Purpura draft approach.)

…carry on an intelligent conversation about baseball with the players. I can easily see this guy hanging out in the locker room talking old baseball stories with the guys. No cameras and no “ready to be a champion” speeches. Just a bunch of baseball players having a good conversation about the game they love.

…let the young guys play. Houston will no longer be the place for former starters to revive their careers after spending time as bench players on other teams. The days of signings like Hall, Barmes, Paulino, and Matsui will soon be behind us. Thank goodness.

…reach the playoffs within 5 years. One way or another this team is going to go the playoffs, and soon. How it happens is the big question. I don’t see it happening through big free agent signings, but I can see some big name trades that bring in some strong young talent. Take Bourn’s situation for example. I can easily see him being moved for some good prospects. Considering the fact that his agent is now Boras, the likelihood of him sticking around after free agency is pretty slim. Got to get what we can for him while the gettin’ is good.

Won’t…

…move the team. Even if he wanted to, there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that MLB would allow it. It also wouldn’t be cheap to get around the non-relocation agreement Drayton made with Harris County when Minute Maid was built. Oh and the fact that all the investors are local business people that are probably smart enough to know that they don’t want to deal with the PR fallout if they were involved in an attempt to move the team.

…fire Mills. Crane knows baseball and knows how to manage. Everything about Mills says the same thing. He’s well prepared, he gets the respect of his people and holds people accountable. Mills is the perfect manager for a Crane team.

…spend a ton of money on free agency. He’s not going to try and compete to spend the most on the best. Crane emphasized smart management in his press conference. Trying to compete with the Phillies, Red Sox, Yanks, and Cubs in free agency isn’t smart. It’s futile. Though we’d like to have a $120m payroll, it’s more likely we’ll be close to the same level we are now or a little lower. The difference will be that the money will be much better spent. (No long term high dollar back loaded contracts with no trade clauses for example.)

…sit behind home plate. Drayton was unique to baseball in that regard. Odds are Crane will be in a skybox for any games he attends. He might show up down there every once in a while, but I wouldn’t count on it. Don’t expect to see him too often. And who cares as long as the team is winning, right?

…do much of anything at all this year as far as personnel goes. All the big changes won’t come until November. He needs to take advantage of the time he has and do nothing more than evaluate. He might do a little something here and there, but I wouldn’t expect anything substantial until November. Though the best first step he could make towards the fans would be to do deep discounts for game tickets and concessions through the end of the year.

So there are my initial predictions. Take them for what they are…guesses.