Stirring the pot

A new political party opens up Indian politics

A MEASURE of his sudden success is how intensely Arvind Kejriwal provokes either cheer or dismay. Mr Kejriwal is a former civil servant who leads India’s newest and brightest movement, the “Common Man” or Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), born in 2012 of an anti-graft campaign. Barely two months ago political analysts wondered, before an election there, whether he could influence local politics in Delhi, the capital. Now they ask how he might affect India’s general election, which will probably take place in April.

Without a scintilla of governing experience, so far the AAP has exceeded expectations. In December it got 30% of votes in polls for Delhi’s assembly, taking 28 of 70 seats (the national capital territory is in effect a state). It both walloped the incumbent Congress and took support from the main opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Backed by Congress’s few remaining legislators, on January 2nd Mr Kejriwal was confirmed as Delhi’s powerful chief minister.

His first days in office have been true to form. Champion of the little man, he refuses to move into the enormous Lutyens bungalow in New Delhi which was long the chief minister’s residence. He and his team of young ministers spurn the flashing red beacons on official cars that Delhiites so resent. Police will lose powers to fine rickshaw drivers for petty offences, playing to a core group of supporters. And taxpayers will subsidise a fixed quantity of electricity and water for every household. That is popular, given high rates of inflation, though it does nothing for many without wires or pipes in the first place.

Now Mr Kejriwal has a platform for campaigning beyond Delhi. On January 5th the party said that it will compete in a pending state assembly election in Haryana, Mr Kejriwal’s home state, as well as launch a national drive for members. In the general election it will contest parliamentary seats in 20 of India’s 35 states and territories. Crucially, it will stand in all 80 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a huge northern state of over 200m people that is sure to shape the overall result. Look out especially for the Amethi constituency of Rahul Gandhi, Congress’s scion, where the AAP hopes for an upset.

Just as its governing abilities in Delhi are untested, so its national electoral chances are unclear. Mostly its appeal is in cities, where voters are particularly fed up with national rule by Congress but less prone to voting by religion or caste. They are also likely to be most swayed by the enthusiastic media and online coverage of Mr Kejriwal. This is a big slab of voters: 53 Indian cities now have 1m or more residents, accounting for around 70 out of 543 parliamentary constituencies for the lower house.

A single-issue, anti-graft movement will probably broaden into a grouping of socially active, left-leaning, secular voters. It would mean drawing in activists on local issues, for example those against a nuclear power station in a coastal part of southern Tamil Nadu, or right-to-information campaigners who oppose mining firms in Goa and Karnataka.

On the other hand, as the AAP takes positions on more subjects, it is likelier to stumble. This week one leader caused a furore by suggesting, reasonably enough, that majority-Muslim Kashmiris deserve a say over army deployment keeping order in Kashmir. That provoked a group of 30 right-wing Hindu thugs to smash windows of an AAP office near Mr Kejriwal’s home. The further Mr Kejriwal and his colleagues stray from campaigning against corruption, the likelier they are to make enemies—or put their foot in it.

Nonetheless, a development of recent years—the fragmentation of Indian politics and the rise of small but potent regional parties—means even moderate success can bring national influence. A party with 20-30 parliamentary seats can count as a national actor with a say in post-election coalition bargaining.

How likely is that for the AAP? Sympathetic observers see Mr Kejriwal already influencing politics for the better. His party rejects many corporate donations, is transparent about where it gets its money and raises funds mostly from a wide base of small donors. The AAP is staffed by volunteers. Its youth and idealism, says a columnist, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, is a welcome antidote to years of public cynicism towards India’s two big parties—corrupt, geriatric and in thrall, in the case of Congress, to dynasts.

Both Congress and the BJP are wary of the harm the new party might inflict on them. In an effort to draw more attention to itself, Congress is likely to name Mr Gandhi as its prime ministerial candidate on January 17th. It also promises a bigger campaigning role for his sister, Priyanka Gandhi. She is seen by some as a more decisive, effective figure than her brother, though her husband is tainted by allegations of corruption (which he denies). Yet relying on the Nehru-Gandhi name to bring in votes looks an outdated practice in the face of the AAP’s urban activism.

Narendra Modi, the BJP’s strongman leader, remains the front-runner to be the next prime minister. But having noted Mr Kejriwal’s success in Delhi, he may have to adjust his strategy. Mr Modi is also starting to solicit small donations from supporters, and hopes to build teams of active volunteers. Their stated goal is to get the BJP 272 seats, an absolute majority, at the general election. That looks a fanciful tally, far above any previous BJP haul. It would become even more improbable should Mr Kejriwal manage to build even a modest national campaign.