On 12 Bahman 1357 (February 1, 1979), an Air France flight landed in Tehran with the exiled leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on board. Ten days later, on 22 Bahman 1357 (February 11, 1979) is the day that the Shah’s regime oficially collapsed, and hence, the day the Revolution succeeded. Iran voted by national referendum to become an official Islamic Republic on April 1, 1979, and to approve a new theocratic constitution whereby Khomeini became Supreme Leader of the country, in December 1979.

Thirty years later, the failure of the theocratic regime to rule with benevolent jurisprudence, the murder of thousands, imprisonment of thousands more, the elimination of basic human rights, the radical limiting of personal freedoms, state control over the media, corruption, deceit and failure to manage the economy are but a few reasons Iranians will take to the streets on 22 Bahman to protest. Unlike Ashura , 22 Bahman will have government sponsored pro-regime parades and events at specified locations. Although this will probably be the case, the movement must show up en masse on designated routes ( to be announced later ), as this day should mark a “yes or NO” referendum on the Islamic Republic. We realize that violence against the movement is a probability, just as Ashura was, nevertheless, this day more than any other, it is imperative that the movements numbers dwarf the regime’s.

As more information becomes available, we will post immediately. Please pass along info, posters, videos, etc. to all friends and family, inside and out of Iran so that we can make 22 Bahman another successful building block on the road to freedom.

As always, stay safe and stay focused.

Droi

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22Bahman “The Learning Curve”

February 14, 2010

Was 22 Bahman a failure for the opposition? Well, if your only metric was the taking over of Azadi Square and having some fantastical vision of the regime’s collapse, then yes, it was a failure. But the fact is, every previous protest to date has had Azadi Square as its main target, and in each case, it has eluded them, and no one has called them failures by any means. True, this day in particular would have been “the mother of all days” to take the Square, but the reality was, that the Square could never have been taken over completely, at best it could be shared, as everyone is fully aware that the regime always packs their events with thousands of government employees (families) and buses in thousands more from rural villages (with enticements of course).

As evidenced in this video (courtesy of GeoEye) on 22 Bahman at 10:47 am, you can see the extent to which the regime had to stoop in order to put on their propaganda parade. No one could have expected they would literally charter hundreds upon hundreds of busloads of people from rural villages.

Here, they give away free food (among other enticements) to their supporters

The goal that was set by the opposition was to have a mass presence in the square and prevent the regime from using 22 Bahman as a propaganda tool, as well as embarrass them. In that sense, they failed to a large extent, but not for the lack of trying, as many did make it to Azadi Square and made their presence known with chants and slogans during Ahmadinejad’s speech which caused the government controlled media to cut off the live speech several times. We will never know just how big their presence was, as they had one large tactical error, an identifier. They could not enter the square with any green symbols or signs, which made it very difficult to positively identify fellow protestors. Couple that with a massive amount of security, plainclothed and uniformed, rendered it impossible to congregate in large numbers. Tehran was unofficially under a state of martial law.

On the main roads leading to Azadi Square, there was massive security. They kept people on the sidewalks in a very orderly and controlled manner.

Although here, just off the main routes you can see the protestors made their presence known.

The opposition did come out en masse, in Tehran, Esfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, Ahvaz, and many other cities. However, they were met by a well conceived and well organized plan by the regime forces, which prevented them from creating a large core, in which to build upon and gain momentum. Unlike previous protests, whereby the security forces were commanded and orchestrated by provincial leadership, 22 Bahman’s security was under the control of the central command, headed by General Jafari. Jafari was appointed Commander of the Revolutionary Guard in 2005, primarily, because of his expertise in assymmetric warfare, as the regime was seriously concerned about the growing dissatisfaction among the populace.

Tehran

Isfahan

Yes, the opposition was out manuevered and blunted for the day, but one must take into account the superiority of the regime in every facet of the struggle, and most importantly, the opposition is a peaceful non-violent movement. The regime had more than a month to analyze their deficiencies from the Ashura debacle and adjust their strategy. They have all the tools, and all the power of the state at their disposal. And, the fact that 22 Bahman is the regime’s sacred annual propaganda orgy, they utilized all of them. They may have succeeded on this day to add a clip of video to their propaganda portfolio, but did they succeeded in crushing, or even wilting the spirit of the opposition. Not a chance! To the contrary, the violence that they chose to engage in on 22 Bahman, along with the mass arrests, the disruptions of the internet, cell phone, SMS, text messaging threats, show trials, executions, intimidations, presence of security forces on the streets in the run-up to 22 Bahman will only encourage more dissatisfaction and anger against the regime and harden the resolve of the opposition.

This is a clip from Ashura, when the protestors engaged and captured security forces. There were many incidents where the regime forces took it on the chin this day. The regime was determined not to have a repeat of these events on their big day.

With the lack of true leadership, organization and mass communication at their disposal, the opposition will have to rely more heavily on their diversity, fluidity and creativity, while thinking outside the box. That is, up to this point the movement is predictable insofar as their quazi-organized protests. They have been announced a month or more in advance and the protest routes (primarily the same each time) and destination (Azadi) are announced openly, which gives the regime ample time to prepare counter measures. The opposition will have to adapt to the ever evolving dynamics on the ground, just as the regime has. They might consider coordinating with different labor groups which are constantly in protest across the country, they will have to seriously lay the groundwork for provincial and national strikes, and protest more often and in differing locations to catch the forces off guard.

The country is for all intensive purposes, a military dictatorship. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been relegated to a mere figurehead. Sepah (Revolutionary Guard) has almost completely taken control of the government, armed forces and has become an economic powerhouse. They are in control of the judiciary, intelligence ministry, large faction of the majlis, many/if not most of the governers and mayors, and they control the media as well. Under the leadership of General Jafari, they have completely integrated the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij and the police forces are under central command now. They control a large portion of the cash flow from oil, they own major banking institutions, construction firms, and have a presence in every major bazaar throughout Iran.

It has been eight months since the election (selection), and the regime has not budged an inch, to the contrary, the have only hardened in their stance. The day of decision for the opposition leaders has been long overdue, and we believe that time has come. They are going to have to decide to keep up with there futile fight to integrate reform into the system, or fully join with the majority of Iranians, at the very least, in calling for a referendum on the Islamic Republic. If they choose the latter, they will be embraced by the population. However, if they continue with their reform platform, they should be discarded, and new leadership should be sought. They, Mousavi and Karroubi are in consultations as of this moment, and are preparing some new strategies which they will announce soon. We hope they will see the light and realize that there is only one path ahead, that of an Iranian Republic, and stop asking the children to sacrifice themselves for naught.

Opposition chants, “Referendum, Referendum!”

While a disappointment to many, 22 Bahman was not a failure, nor even a setback, it was merely a learning curve. An experience that will have to be analyzed, corrected and countered. The major shortcoming of the opposition was preparing an alternate plan. Going forward they will not only need to have alternate plans, they will have to be creative, including diversionary tactics, location changes, early evening protests (as nighttime will profoundly hamper security effectiveness) and so on. The regime had poured a massive amount of resources into 22 Bahman, of which they will not be able to sustain. They can sit around their sofra’s, sip tea and congratulate themselves for their efforts on this day, but the reality is that they are at war with their own citizenry, and that war is far from over.

In light of recent developments on the political front, it is with the utmost urgency that we must call on everyone we can to hit the streets on 22 Bahman. We must have overwhelming support!!! The fractious regime appears to be on course for a head on collision and possibly a future total meltdown, and that leaves the risk of a complete takeover by the extremist faction. It has become clear that the Mesbah Yazdi-Ahmadinejad coalition has dug in their heels and are prepared to fight for their life. This has the potential for purges within the establishment. We need to demonstrate to the silent supporters in the force structure (Artesh, IRGC, Basij, etc.) that indeed the overwhelming majority seek freedom and democracy. We must give them a clear mandate for any possible future intervention.

Droi

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February 1, 2010

We anticipate 22 Bahman will be similar to Qods Day, albeit, on a much larger scale, in which the opposition dwarfed the regime supporters, and each side marched on opposite sides of the street. Although, the potential for violence looms much larger. However, the big difference on 22 Bahman could be, that the opposition might possibly make it to the ever elusive symbolic Azadi (Freedom) Square, which has been the goal on every protest, but has eluded them thus far. The regime will undoubtedly attempt to pack the square with government workers/families (practically mandatory if you work for the government) and busloads of supporters from outside of Tehran. Surely, there will also be a heavy prescence of security forces. Perhaps the best chance for the opposition to reach this goal will be to set out en masse in the early hours. Anyway, we will be hoping and praying they reach Azadi, as this would signal areferendum on the Islamic Republic.

In the event our brave brothers and sisters make it to Azadi Square, we believe it to be in the best interest of our compatriots to refrain from highly inflamatory chants (death to Khamenei, death to Islamic republic, etc.), as this could easily spark clashes with basij and rogue elements. We believe the chants should focus on“referendum.” Also, posters or placards that focus on “referendum” would be extremely important, as it would prevent the regime from using the event as a propaganda tool inside the country, and also prevent them from using it to project outside of Iran.

Droi

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February 3, 2010

Important Points & Suggestions Regarding the 22nd of Bahman Protests

English Translation
Source: Jaras Wed 14 Bahman

Important points & suggestions regarding protests on the 22nd of Bahman

1) According to reliable sources in Basiji bases in Tehran and neighboring provinces, as with the 9th of Dey, the plan is to transport a large number of Basijis and their families from the provinces to Tehran by bus in order to gather and rally at Azadi Square. It looks as though the coup government’s strategy is currently two fold, to ensure that people from the provinces are gathered around Azadi square and that their supporters from Tehran gather around Azadi and the surrounding streets.

2) There is a high probability based on the experiences of previous years that the podiums for the speakers will be on the Northwestern side of Azadi square. We therefore anticipate that the grass area in front of square will be blocked with plenty of tall scaffoldings, leaving a small open area in front of the podium for picture taking purposes. There is a grass area behind/ in the back of Azadi square that will be blocked in the same manner so that the Green protesters won’t have much space for gathering in the square. We therefore suggest that everyone arrive very early in the morning at Azadi square in the in order to take over the square (whether the blocked areas or the open areas) and make sure it is under the control of the Green. Also, please refrain from giving any slogans any earlier than 11am in order to avoid creating any clashes.

3) The police’s strategy on Qods day was to provide a layer of anti riot police starting at 10:30am, preventing people from gathering at Vali Asr square and making sure that the crowd that was trying to move from 7 Tir towards this direction was stopped. They also attacked people towards the end of the protests at around 1:00pm when the clashes began. The exact same thing happened at Azadi street when they directed people from Enghelab square towards Kargar street and Laleh park where clashes too began. It is therefore possible that on the 22nd of Bahman, they will control the Green protestors from Yadegar bridge up to the square and stop them from gathering by installing hundreds of anti riot police around the east and north of Enghelab square so that the crowd coming from Vali Asr square, Ferdowsi square, Shemran, and Imam Hosseini square and also those coming from Kargar and Keshavarz blvd towards Vali Asr Square are unable to move any further than Enghelab Square in order to join those on Azadi Street. We therefore suggest that Green supporters join the protests in the following manner:

A) Use the Metro

I) Those who live in central and north Tehran and use the Metro line 1, Mirdamad station, Haghani etc. southward, get off the Metro at Darvaze Dolat station, take line 2 (route leading to Sadeghieh) and get off at Navab, Azadi and Sharif stations in order to join the crowd.

II) Those who live in eastern Tehran (Tehranpars, etc.) and use the Metro line 2, get off at Navab, Azadi and Sharif University station in order to join the crowd.

III) Those who live in the south eastern side of Tehran (Piroozi street, Shohada Square, etc.) and take the Metro line 4, get off at Darvaze dolat station and change to line 2 (route leading to Sadeghieh) and get off at Navab, Azadi, Sharif University stations in order to join the crowd.

B) Use other means of transportation

Those who have access to private cars or other means of public transportation, should make sure to use either the western streets leading to Azadi to join the crowds or use the freeways to get to the northern part of Azadi square (Sadeghieh square, Sheik Fazil Allah, Tarashat, etc.) and join the crowds that have moved from the north of the square (Mohammad Ali Jenah freeway) to get to Azadi square. The end of Chemran freeway, Yadegar Imam freeway and the surrounding streets are suitable places for parking cars.

4) An important point that should NOT be neglected are the slogans for the 22nd of Bahman. One of the things that the coup government has a tendency to do is to tape the slogans that they view as being inflammatory and against the government and feed it to ordinary people. What is interesting here is that they taped and broadcast most of the people’s slogans without any fear or concern for them being religiously forbidden (for example, death to the foundation of the Velayat -e Faqih, tearing Khomeini’s picture, etc.). However, the only thing they have not dared broadcast are the slogans referring to Khamenei (death to Khamenei, Khamenei is a murderer, etc.) and the burning and crumbling of his photos. Therefore in addition to reiterating the importance of being peaceful and quiet at the beginning of the protests, we suggest that you use these slogans during the reading of the statements.

5) The main statement for the Green movement on the 22nd of Bahman is “Referendum”. As such when the speaker is reading his statement, we will all shout “Referendum, Referendum, this is the desire of our nation” We also suggest that you use A4 paper to create a 22nd of Bahman flyers that read “The statement of the our nation this 22nd of Bahman “Referendum” ” in large font!

6) Another important point is to change the slogans given by government officials using loud speakers, such as the ones given during the Friday prayers, to slogans such as death to Russia, etc.

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February 4, 2010

Internet access is being heavily obstructed in Iran in the leadup to 22 Bahman. Urge caution, especially when connections are very slow. No info, pictures, videos should be left on computer, all should be on externals ( portable hard drives, zip drves, Cd’s, etc.)

Regime is stepping up the arrests of activists and threats in an attempt to blunt protests on 22 Bahman.

All routes to Azadi Sq will be blocked on 22nd Bahman without any prior noticeEnglish Translation of blog and interesting perspective on IRGC’s strategy for 22nd Bahman by a Green Friend Morteza Aya.

The routes towards Azadi Square to be completely blocked on 22nd Bahman without any prior noticeThe IRGC (probably in collaboration with the nation’s security forces) have already begun preparing for the 22nd of Bahman. Their main goal is to block the routes to Azadi street completely without prior notice on the morning of the 22 of Bahman. The IRGC’s goal is to close all entries to Azadi street from Enghelab Square to Azadi Square and as such stop Green supporters from entering and gathering in this area.

The coup government supporters will be transported to Azadi Square from the West and South of the square. The main goal is to prevent the opposition movement and protesters to the election results of the 22 of Khordad to enter Azadi square in order to put on a “pro government rally” show and broadcast it to the world through the presence of foreign media. In this way, they hope to announce an end to opposition protests and the death of the Green movement.

All foreign visitors and media outlets will enter Azadi square from the northern entrance so the government can control exactly what they can see and what they will report on.

In order to fill Azadi square, they will need at least 20,000 people and the IRGC hopes to bring the crowd to this location through detailed plans to transport supporters via buses from within Tehran and the surrounding provinces. The goal is to falsely convince foreign media of the strength of government supporters on the 22nd of Bahman and demonstrate the diminishing support for the Green movement.

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February 5, 2010

ATTENTION – IMPORTANT Tips For The Decisive Protests of 22 Bahman.
Please read and inform others. YOU ARE THE MEDIA!

1) In addition to carrying a mask, wearing dark glasses, a hat and sports clothes, make sure you carry a napkin stained with vinegar in a freezer bag in order to fight the affects of tear gas.

2) Park your vehicle away from the main routes.

3) We ask our Dr. and nurse friends to carry a small first aid kit with them.

5) We ask those who live close to the protest routes and businesses in the area to be prepared to give protestors refuge in the event of attacks by coup government forces.

6) The thugs will probably be transported by bus to Azadi square the night before and will spend the night in bases around Azadi. As such they will be tired, worried and on edge. The longer the protests last, the more on edge and tired they will become!

7) We must make it as difficult as possible for Ahmadinejad to give a speech on the main podium. They will probably try to bring him in the early hours to the areas around the podium (e.g the airport or buildings in the square). If they begin to promote his arrival (by distributing Sandis juice and chanting slogans in his support), creating disturbances around the square and affecting Ahmadinejad’s psychological preparation for his speech should be our FIRST priority. This will be the main priority of the Ekbatan colleagues and those who are arriving to the square via special streets.

8) The thugs will be covering the area around the podium from the very early hours. The longer and more unsuccessful the ceremony becomes the harder it will be for them to control the area. Our goal is to try to create enough disturbances that prolong the ceremony and lead to the potential canceling of his speech (now that would be a victory!)

9) Just as in Ashura, on the 22nd of Bahman, the thugs will be present along the routes of the protest. Anti riot security forces and thugs will also be placed in mosques, cultural centers, police stations, the Ministry of Labor, and other government centers and will be deployed as necessary. Paying attention to these locations and controlling traffic and movement in these areas is essential.

10) We ask those who live near the protest routes to prepare bags filled with rocks (approx 20 – 30) and place them near their homes, behind cars parked on the side streets or inside the garbage containers so that protestors in the area can use them to defend themselves if necessary.

11) The buildings over looking the protest routes act as a great camouflage and are ideal for taking pictures and films of the events.

12) Many of the “Sandis eating” supporters (here the reference is to those who were attracted in previous rallies with juice and food) will not attend on the 22nd of Bahman out of fear and caution. That means that the main crowd will consists of the limited number of thugs that they have been able to bus in from the surrounding areas.

13) Pay attention to your surroundings when taking pictures or films with your mobile phones and please refrain from taking pictures of people’s faces. Make sure you have an extra free memory card so that if you are searched physically or if your cell phone is checked you can switch the full card with the empty one.

14) If at all possible, attend the protests with a small group of friends or family members. In the event that they try to arrest one of the members in your group, make sure to make lots of noise and commotion in order to create the conditions for his/her freedom.

15) Here is how you recognize the thugs. Even if they wear street clothes and change their appearance, the thugs can’t hide their faces. They usually look very worried and disturbed. They stay in one area, they stare at protestors and don’t pay much attention to the general on goings of the protests. The buttons to their clothes are usually closed because of wireless devices and weapons. When they run, they usually hold their hand to their waists to make sure that their weapons and wireless devices stay in place. If you pay a little attention, you will be able to recognize them easily. They generally stand around the intersection. If you see them, try to take pictures or films as they will come in handy.

16) Since the thugs won’t have a critical mass, the loud speakers will play an important psychological role for them. As such disabling their loud speakers will be a key priority.

17) It is important to create scenarios for prolonging the protests as much as possible. Make sure you carry some food to sustain you during the long protest hours.

18) Be wise and rely on your experience so that you are not affected negatively by the false news that will most probably be broadcast by the coup government agents!

19) Please read these and other suggestions/tips carefully that are being distributed through secure channels these days and forward to others both verbally and electronically.

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February 7, 2010

There are reports of alot of security euiptment being transported to Tehran, although mostly personnel carriers and anti-riot motorcycles

Many are calling on the people to disable (cut wires, etc.) of the speakers that are being installed on the streets leading up to Azadi Square.

Iran News Agency – Azadi and Enghelab Avenues are to be equipped with security cameras. The regime has taken extensive measures to quell the people’s movement in the wake of political, social, and local groups supporting the green movement at the outset of 22 Bahman (February 11) demonstrations.

Enghelab and Azadi Avenues, which link Imam Hossein and Azadi Squares, have been equipped with numerous advanced closed-circuit security cameras. These cameras are said to be installed 50 paces apart on both sides of Enghelab and Azadi Avenues. From Persian2English

For those who will be carrying posters or placards, it would be wise to make sure your face is covered.

Also, those who will be taking video and/or pictures should have their face covered.

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February 9, 2010

Tabriz: Protest routes for Tabriz

*If/when more info. available, it will be posted immediately

Update: Regime plans for Tabriz protests:

1. At the instruction of the Education Office of Tabriz, Isa Pour, dean of the Nabi Akram High School, has told teachers and students that they have to gather in front of the Moghaddasi High School in the “United Nations” district to march to the mayor’s office in central Tabriz. Each teacher must attend the rally and bring at least 20 students. Participating teachers will receive one day off and those not attending the rally will be docked one day’s salary and their absence will be noted in their files.

2. Over the last week, Basijis have received 5 kilograms of cooking oil and 10 kilograms of rice per person to attend the rally and to bring their relatives and friends.

3. The Tabriz Municipal Office has distributed new uniforms to street cleaners who will wear them at the rally. Each participant will receive an additional payment of three days’ salary and those not attending will have their salary reduced by the same amount.

4. Employees of banks, the Finance Office, the Office of Environment and Cultural Heritage, the Red Crescent, the Fire Department, and Agricultural Jihad will receive one day off if they participate in the rally. Those who don’t attend will receive an administrative reprimand and this will be noted in their files.

5. All officers, corporals, soldiers, and support staff have been instructed to attend the rally. Officers and corporals will wear their uniforms. Soldiers and support staff will be in civilian dress.

6. Basij will organize free breakfasts on the morning of February 11 in some poor districts of Tabriz.

7. Additional Basij forces will be brought to Tabriz by buses from suburban villages and towns.

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Shiraz: Source FB Shiraz Green Movement .جنبش سبز شیراز

The following are the routes established for the 22nd of Bahman by the various groups within the Green Movement of Shiraz:

1. From Aram street to Namazi square

2. From Paramound street to Setad square

3. The surrounding areas of Mullah Sadra street

4. In general refrain from chanting slogans when the crowd is scattered in the various areas. Wait until the crowd has gathered in one place before you begin chanting slogans.

The IRGC’s Security Plan for Controlling Enghelab Street on the 22nd of Bahman
Source: Pyknet پيك نت & Jaras
According to reliable sources, based on pre-designed plans by the IRGC, security for Enghelab street from Imam Hossein to Azadi square, will be divided into a number of sections/areas. Each area will be under the control of a Basiji unit from a different city in Iran.

For example, the area under Kalej bridge will be under the control of Basiji from Bablosar. 16 Azar until Enghelab will be under the control of Basiji from Mashhad, etc. designed to ensure that all different areas within Enghelab street all the way to Azadi square are controlled by Basiji forces from early morning on the 22nd of Bahman. The quotas has been sent to the Basiji commanders for each city. In a letter describing the quotas for each city, the faithful Basijis were asked to leave the provinces for Tehran. Some cities such as Mashhad have informed the central command center that they are unable to meet the quota requested and that they are facing a shortage of faithful and sincere resources in their provinces.

The Basiji in each city have also been told to buy all the Green material/cloth available in the shops and write slogans on them such as “Death to those against the Velyat e- Faqih” and “Green is only the Green of Ali” so that they can be carried in the rallies in Tehran.

All these efforts are designed to reinforce the government’s legitimacy and create the impression that the people of Iran support Khamenei in front of foreign media who have been invited to Tehran to witness the ceremonies.

The points regarding Basiji quotas for the 22nd Bahman were published by Jaras. It has also been reported that if anyone is caught trying to invite people to the protests via SMS (text messaging), or inform anyone of any specific routes, they will be arrested.

Note: Many of the official green (Mousavi) movement statements are calling for protestors to chant pro-Islamic Republic slogans while focusing anti-chants against Ahmadinejad’s government(election). We believe that time has long passed, and we condone all anti-regime chants, with a special focus on REFERENDUM. Again, all chants and posters should only be employed when it is safe to do so (large enough like-minded crowd), and all carrying posters/placards and/or filming should have their face covered, with no exception!!!!

Important: Anyone who lives in the area of the protests should prepare their home with firstaid kits, lots of water, bandaging materials (sheets, old clothing, etc.), alcohol, eyewashing liquids, etc. Also, any doctors, nurses, and medical students who live nearby or have family or friends that live nearby(they should be there) should not participate in the protests as they will be needed to treat the injured.

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February 10, 2010

It is being reported that many Basij units will camp out at Azadi Square tonight to keep the area secure.

Pro-regime supporters are being asked to start arriving at Azadi Square at 8:00 am.

Mehdi Karroubi has announced that he will be present at Sadeghiyeh Square (Falakeh Dovom Sadeghiyeh) at 10 am and will march towards Freedom Square (Azadi) along with fellow Iranians.

Although no route info available, protests have also been confirmed for Isfahan, Rasht, Yazd, Azerbaijan.

Brave Women Of Iran

A special note we would like to share with the brave and beautiful women of Iran; You have shown extraordinary courage, passion, pride, humility and humanity in the face of great injustice. The world has taken notice and we are all humbled by your strength and determination. If you are the future, then we all are comforted by how bright it will shine.