Strike zone isn't large

Major-league scouts share their views on where the Cubs should look for more starting pitching

December 05, 2006|By Dave van Dyck, Tribune staff reporter.

ORLANDO — If the Cubs sign a free-agent pitcher, it should be Jason Schmidt rather than Ted Lilly or Gil Meche. And if they could trade with the White Sox, it should be for Freddy Garcia.

That's the consensus of several veteran major-league scouts who were asked to rank the best available free-agent pitchers--with money being no object--and the three White Sox starters who reportedly are available for trade.

With the focus on pitching as baseball's winter meetings begin, Chicago's teams have become the center of attention because the Cubs need two starters and the Sox are one of the few teams with pitching available.

"The White Sox are going to have suitors because they have what others don't," one longtime scout said. "Plus, they have a general manager who is a little underrated and who is not afraid to do something."

If you don't believe Sox GM Ken Williams isn't in the catbird's seat this winter, consider his three pitchers fall among the top five or six who are "available," whether it be via free agency or by trade. Of course, other teams also could be talked into trading starters, but no GM has the depth Williams has.

"And remember, the [White Sox] pitchers have been on winning teams," the scout said. "There's a lot to be said for that."

This was the mission Monday: Rank the free-agent pitchers available to the Cubs, but include the three White Sox pitchers on that list.

Here are scouts' choices, although it was not unanimous:

Schmidt was the winner on every ballot except one. Lefty Barry Zito, at 28 five years younger than Schmidt, was second and then came the surprise.

The third, fourth and fifth spots went to the White Sox's Garcia, Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle, although the opinions varied widely on whether Vazquez was more desirable than Buehrle.

Rounding out the list were lefty Lilly, Jeff Suppan and Meche, with Miguel Batista and Jason Marquis bringing up the rear.

The Cubs reportedly are interested in Schmidt, Lilly and Meche. They may not have enough young pitchers to make a deal for a Sox starter. But plenty of other teams do. Williams has the luxury of waiting for the field to thin out.

So as the Cubs zero in on adding plenty of zeroes to some pitcher's paycheck, the advice from scouts would be to chase Schmidt, even though he is 33.

"I'm not that concerned about Schmidt's age," one long-time scout said. "I like him more than Zito because his stuff is better. Zito is a two-pitch pitcher and has such a big curveball it's hard to command."

"I would take Zito over Schmidt," the lone dissenter said. "But if you're the Cubs, Schmidt has more of a chance of being better because he throws a lot of ground balls. Zito is more of a fly-ball pitcher."

"Schmidt is a horse, he has three or four good pitches," another scout said. "He has had a little injury history, but I'll tell you what, he's a right-handed horse."

"To me," still another said, "Schmidt is No. 1 [on the list] even though his velocity was down a little last year. He knows how to pitch. He throws strikes and he gets ground-ball outs.

"Zito's an interesting guy. I saw him once where he couldn't throw his curveball for a strike and the next time everything was all right."

Scouts' opinions varied more on names farther down the list.

With White Sox pitchers included, Lilly did not rank highly and neither did Meche, although one believed he was young enough at 28 to be a bargain down the road.

"Lilly elevates the ball a lot, which would not be good in Wrigley Field," one said. "Stuff-wise, Meche and Schmidt might be the top two, but there are some concerns about Meche's makeup."

Among the Sox pitchers the biggest surprise was that lefty Buehrle, despite his subpar 2006 season, was ranked higher than Lilly.

"Buehrle just had an off year," one said. "He'll be back. He's a left-hander who knows how to throw strikes and those are tough to find."

This is how one super scout looks at the Sox's threesome:

"Garcia has learned how to pitch without his best stuff. He has very good command, he gives you 200 innings every season, his control is good.

"Vazquez is a guy who may have slipped backwards a little with his command, although it was better late in the season than it was early.

"Buehrle has slipped a little because hitters were forcing him to throw the ball over the plate. When they stopped chasing the ball, it made him become a little too fine and he struggled. He needs to re-establish his fastball and command of his cutter."

Before it's all over Williams will have his choice of who, if any, of his pitchers gets traded. The Cubs' choice, at least at these meetings, will be how much to overpay for a free agent.