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EXCLUSIVE – DEWHURST RAISED $2.64 MILLION IN Q3: Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst will report that he raised $2.64 million in the third quarter for his Senate campaign. The Republican got 93% of those donations came from the Lone Star State. He also made a $2 million personal contribution, which means he has more than $4 million cash on hand. This breaks the modern single-quarter record for a Senate candidate in Texas, eclipsing what NRSC Chairman John Cornyn raised in the final months before the 2002 general election. In addition to his massive war chest, Dewhurst leads the polls in a primary battle against Ted Cruz and Tom Leppert.

FIRST IN SCORE – CROSSROADS TARGETS ORLANDO AND PITTSBURGH WITH $70K BUY: American Crossroads is continuing to aggressively bracket President Obama's state and local efforts to sell the American Jobs Act (aka his second stimulus bill). The group’s ad featuring video of Bill Clinton saying that now is not the time for tax increases, which had already been released, went up in Orlando and Pittsburgh on Monday night and will run all-day Tuesday and Wednesday on local network stations and cable news. [The president visits both cities Tuesday.] The $70k total buy is the second local bracketing effort by Crossroads in the paid media since Obama launched his jobs campaign. The ad: http://bit.ly/mVFN5s.

DRIVING THE DAY – PERRY’S DO-OR-DIE MOMENT COMES TONIGHT: This will be Rick Perry’s fourth debate since getting into the race two months ago, and it is his most important yet. “If Perry stumbles again, coming off as inarticulate or defensive, the damage to his campaign could prove terminal,” Jonathan Martin writes in the story leading our web site. “One bad debate turn for a new candidate may be excusable, but two is troubling. To turn in three or even four weak showings would be more than sufficient to send donors and voters alike scurrying away for good.” The Perry campaign plans to use the next two debates to pivot away from immigration and get Perry back to jobs and the economy, where they think he’s strongest. http://politi.co/q1Ooo8

What else we’ll be watching: Cain will face extra scrutiny from moderators and his opponents. Rick Santorum, increasingly worried Cain could mess up his plans to establish himself as the alternative to Perry in Iowa, will attack the 9-9-9 plan. Huntsman will go after Romney as part of his bid to get traction in the state where he has moved his campaign.

TONIGHT’S FORMAT – DEBATE STARTS AT 8 P.M. ET: The two-hour debate will focus on the economy. “No gimmicks, no gotchas, just a discussion that is as serious as the issues that Americans are dealing with on a daily basis,” Karen Tumulty, who will ask some of the questions, writes in a Washington Post preview that fires up the hype jets and warns us to expect the unexpected. “Viewers will also notice that the setting looks different. Rather than standing at lecterns, the candidates will be seated at a single table. The format will consist of four segments, including one in which the candidates will ask each other questions.” Yesterday Score said the debate starts at 7 p.m. Turns out its Bloomberg’s pre-game coverage. The actual debate starts at 8 p.m. E.T. at Dartmouth in Hanover. You can watch on Bloomberg TV or a live stream on the Washington Post’s politics page: http://wapo.st/q9czSD. Karen’s preview: http://wapo.st/qoNjr2.

SNEAK PEEK – PROTECT YOUR CARE LINKS HEALTH CARE, ECONOMY: A memo going out later from the pro-health reform group Protect Your Care says to expect health care questions both because Karen is a moderator (it’s apparently a known hobby horse of hers) but also because the fate of Obama’s law is inextricably linked to the economy. From Eddie Vale: “Health care is jobs. This is a phrase we often use because the Affordable Care Act does not just transform our nation’s health care, it also helps our economy. The converse is true as well, the people who want to repeal or defund it, will also be hurting job creation…You are obviously going to hear a ton of rhetoric tonight from the candidates on the deficit. But are they going to mention that their plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act would massively raise the deficit according to the CBO?”

AXELROD MEMO – “THE MORE THEY HEAR THE PRESIDENT TALKING ABOUT IT, THE MORE THEY WANT CONGRESS TO PASS THE PLAN”: The Jobs Act/Second Stimulus is set for a Senate floor vote today, and it will fail. Obama strategist David Axelrod sent out a three-page memo last night insisting that the public is coming around on the plan and pushing Republicans to offer an alternative. “The more people know about the American Jobs Act, the more they hear the president talking about it, the more they want Congress to pass the plan,” Axe writes, citing several polls. WSJ posted the full text: http://on.wsj.com/qTjc9G .

POLLING —

• WAPO/BLOOMBERG – NO CANDIDATE HAS DECISIVE EDGE ON ECONOMY: “In the new poll, some 22 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney would do the most to improve the economy, and 20 percent say so of businessman Herman Cain, who has jumped into the top tier in recent polls,” Post pollster Jon Cohen writes. “One in eight (12 percent) say Texas Gov. Rick Perry would do the best job to improve the economy, with none of the other top candidates cracking double-digits on the question. A sizable 22 percent express no opinion.” There is a general crisis of confidence about the economy in these numbers, a sense that the economy is getting worse. Crosstabs: http://wapo.st/qiW4X9 . Jon’s blog post: http://wapo.st/nwh7uQ .

• HARVARD/NHIOP – CAIN SURGES IN N.H.: The Harvard Institute of Politics and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics put out a New Hampshire poll yesterday that gave Cain 20 percent in the state, behind Romney (38%). This success in an early-state poll increases the likelihood that someone will attack him tonight. Harvard’s release: http://bit.ly/qrO0dY.

• NATE SILVER – DON’T READ TOO MUCH INTO N.H. POLLS: The New York Times polling analyst reviewed New Hampshire primary polling going back to 1984 from nine competitive nomination contests. “It turns out that the candidate who led in the New Hampshire polls as of October in the year before the election — the period that we’re in right now — went on to win the New Hampshire primary in only two or three of the nine cases.” http://bit.ly/ozIv0R

• GALLUP – ROMNEY AT 20%, CAIN AT 18%: Romney and Cain lead in a new national poll, with 20% and 18% respectively. 20% are undecided. Perry's support has dropped by half since September, from 31% to 15%. http://bit.ly/pHKR5i

MORMON UPDATE—THE PASTOR WON’T GO AWAY: As expected, the issue was still out there yesterday but it appears to be fading. The Baptist pastor who ignited the dust-up Friday had a Hardball hit last night, in which he clarified that Mormonism is a “theological cult” as opposed to a “sociological cult.” (Video: http://huff.to/rnkvOL ). In a Fox News appearance earlier, Jeffress said that he and Perry were only acquaintances – giving the candidate some cover. “You know, there are people who would like to try to make me the Jeremiah Wright of the right, or Rick Perry's Jeremiah Wright," he said, pushing back on the analogy. http://bit.ly/nO42qG

MORE – HUNTSMAN CALLS ON PERRY TO REPUDIATE JEFFRESS: “The fact that some moron can stand up and make a comment like that – first of all, it’s outrageous. Second of all, the fact that we are spending so much time discussing it is making it even worse,” Huntsman said on CNN last night. “Make an immediate and decisive break, period. This kind of talk, I think has no home in American politics. Anyone who is associated with someone willing to make those comments ought to stand up and distance themselves in very bold language, and that hasn't been done. And Rick ought to stand up and do that.” There is a growing sense among Republicans that Jeffress was the wrong guy to go after Romney, and that this episode might get the frontrunner some sympathy from evangelicals. http://politi.co/o6wnC4

NO QUESTIONS – ROMNEY CHIDES REPORTER AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE EVENT: “After the Baptist pastor Robert Jeffress thrust the topic of Mitt Romney's Mormon faith into the headlines over the weekend, reporters trailing Romney in New Hampshire on Monday peppered the candidate with questions…Romney kept silent and focused on glad-handing, as his aides shouted ‘No questions.’…One reporter from The Daily Caller asked Romney his thoughts on Attorney General Eric Holder's handling of the now discredited "Fast and Furious" gunrunning operation. Romney ignored him and moved on. But thirty seconds later, he came back to explain the rules. ‘I do press avails and then I answer questions that are important questions in the length that I want to do but what I don't do is in a group like this is stop and rattle off questions to people just as we walk along,’ Romney said.” http://bit.ly/qXznr2

GAY MARRIAGE – SOCIAL ISSUES DOMINATE ROMNEY’S N.H. TOWN HALL: Romney got four questions about gay marriage during a 45-minute town hall in Hopkinton. “I think the ideal setting to raise a child for a society like ours is where there is a man and a woman in the marriage,” Romney said, staying on message. He also got questions about AIDS funding and (from an 8-year-old boy) abortion. ABC’s embed sets the scene: http://abcn.ws/qoxz7Z.

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: New Hampshire is again the hub of political activity. Ahead of the debate, Santorum has three events. He hosts an 8 a.m. meet-and-greet at Chez Vachon in Manchester, tours the Citronics offices in Milford at 10:30, and hosts a 2 p.m. town hall at the College of Saint Mary Magdalen. Huntsman has a town hall at 1 p.m. at the Kendall Retirement Community Center in Hanover.

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO – JOBS SPEECH IN PITTSBURGH, FUNDRAISER IN ORLANDO: Per White House Daily Guidance, “While in Pittsburgh, the President will visit the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local No. 5 Training Center…convene a meeting of the President’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, and deliver remarks…While in Orlando, the President will deliver remarks at a campaign event at the Sheraton Orlando Downtown Hotel...The President will then deliver remarks at a campaign event at a private residence.” He’ll land back at Andrews at 11:35 p.m.

15 MORE MINUTES OF FAME? – JOE THE PLUMBER STILL MULLING HOUSE BID: “Samuel ‘Joe’ Wurzelbacher, who became an overnight sensation during the 2008 presidential campaign, said in a telephone interview Monday that he would decide by Oct. 25 if he will run for Ohio's 9th U.S. House district,” the Toledo Blade reports. That is a more Democratic district post-redistricting, and he would face the winner of the Marcy Kaptur-Dennis Kucinich primary. http://bit.ly/pCXp2Z

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE – WARREN RAISES $3.1 MILLION, BROWN TAKES $1.55 MILLION IN Q3: “Elizabeth Warren, capitalizing on Democratic establishment support and help from progressive political action committees, has raised $3.15 million toward her US Senate bid, doubling what Republican Senator Scott Brown raised over the same reporting period,” The Boston Globe reports. “Brown raised $1.55 million for the quarter ending Sept. 30, meaning the candidates combined raised $4.7 million. Brown’s campaign said he had $10.5 million in his war chest at the end of September…Warren’s next closest Democratic competitor, Alan Khazei, said on Friday that he raised $365,000 in the most recent fund-raising period.” http://bo.st/qUD3b8

TEXAS HOUSE – DOGGETT RAISED $375K IN Q3: That gives him a $3.3 million war chest. His primary opponent, Joaquin Castro, reported a nearly $500K haul last week. Alex Isenstadt writes a broader story today on the front page of POLITICO about how one of the last remaining Anglo Democratic House members in Texas, who has been a loyal ally of Hispanics, can no longer count on the support of his Hispanic colleagues in the House. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus “has been noticeably tight-lipped on the race” and several members declined to talk about it. Austin American Statesman write-up on fundraising: http://bit.ly/oSBVpG . Isenstadt’s broader story: http://politi.co/r72AhH

FLORIDA GOVERNOR – CAROLE CRIST RE-REGISTERS AS A DEMOCRAT: “The wife of former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist is now a Democrat,” per the Associated Press. She changed her voter registration last week. Crist himself remains an independent after leaving the GOP last year. There’s buzz in the Sunshine State that Charlie Crist could run for governor in 2014 as a Democrat. This could be a step in that direction. http://bit.ly/nPfdyh

TOTAL RECALL – DEMS TO TRY REMOVING SCOTT WALKER AFTER ALL: “The state Democratic Party chairman said Monday the recall effort against GOP Gov. Scott Walker will begin on Nov. 15, setting up a likely year of expensive political battles in Wisconsin in 2012,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. “[Mike] Tate said recall efforts would be coordinated with the group United Wisconsin and would begin shortly after the first opportunity - one year after Walker was elected in November 2010…Recalling Walker won't be easy. Just to trigger an election, organizers will need to gather more than 540,000 signatures in 60 days…Walker said last month that he ‘absolutely’ takes a recall effort against him seriously. As proof of that, Walker's chief of staff and 2010 campaign manager, Keith Gilkes, recently left the governor's office to work on his campaign.” http://bit.ly/nFSpt0