Why Wearable Fitness Trackers Are Just A Fad That's Going To Die

Wearables are having a moment right now and it’s easy to imagine
a limitless horizon ahead. But within the world of wearables, a
reckoning is coming for dedicated fitness trackers.

While the fitness device category has soared in recent years,
most of these products will eventually be swallowed up by
smartphones and smart watches offering “good enough”
functionality. Even the winners of the fitness tracker race will
face an uphill battle against a legion of smart devices.

Now, clearly I have a vested interest in this space as the
founder and CEO of fitness app RunKeeper. But my views on how
this market will play out are informed by my experience helping
almost 30 million users to be active. And they are shaped by a
consistent pattern the consumer electronics industry has followed
for years.

To be sure, there will be a place for very specific fitness
trackers that go deep in one area or are geared toward advanced
users. But for mainstream usage, fitness tracking will be handled
largely by general purpose devices, whether smartphones or
eventually a whole class of smart watches working independently
or in concert with a phone.

This pattern has played itself out before. Before the modern
smartphone era began, music players, GPS devices, point-and-shoot
cameras and portable video cameras all flourished. But the
smartphone, with its combination of portable sensors,
connectivity and apps, eventually replaced these dedicated
devices for everyday use, relegating them to the sidelines. The
same future awaits dedicated fitness trackers.

It’s not just history that fitness trackers must contend with.
Other challenges include:

Friction: While fitness trackers promote a
vision of effortless monitoring, there’s quite a bit of
friction involved, from paying for a separate device to needing
to charge it, sync it, and put it on every day. Every added bit
of friction increases the odds that your tracker will end up on
your bureau instead of your wrist.

Fragmentation: As more of these devices
proliferate, it is an increasing challenge to consolidate the
data you care about into a single view. And if you’re trying to
benefit from the social motivation of your peers, it’s tough
when everyone is using a different device and tracking data
separately.

Poor engagement: For all of the promise of
fitness tracking, most of the data that is tracked today is not
utilized effectively to help people make sustained changes to
their behavior. The data in itself isn’t valuable; the real
promise lies in the motivational ability to improve people’s
engagement around their health in a sustained way.

So what will the winning tracking solution look like?

There is no doubt it will be software-only. With better and
better devices available, like the iPhone 5S with its M7 motion
co-processor or emerging smart watches like the Pebble and the
rumored iWatch, the need for dedicated fitness tracking devices
is being diminished by the day. No one wants to purchase,
wear and maintain a redundant device.

The winning software will come as an integrated suite.
People care about more than one kind of data, and multiple
data types is essential to get a full picture of your health. It
is important that the winning solution provides a comprehensive
view across the key data types that you care about. Trying to jam
them into one experience is a recipe for bloatware. A tightly
integrate suite of apps with an underlying layer of unification
is the way to go.

More than tracking our movements, we need a solution that will
help us stay motivated and engaged to make the right decisions
about our health. Every person is different, and the winning
solution will provide personalized guidance and motivation to
each user based on everything the system knows about that user,
others using the service, and the relevant context from their
surroundings.

We are in the early innings of this transition, but it will
happen faster than you think. I still remember everyone insisting
in 2008 that no one would ever run or ride their bikes with their
phone doing the tracking, when they could buy a dedicated fitness
device to do the same thing. Now, far more people use their phone
to track their runs and bike rides than any dedicated fitness
devices. Six years later, people are saying the same thing about
always-on fitness tracking, and it is just a matter of time
before history repeats itself yet again.

If you want to see which fitness tracking device will go
mainstream in a sustained way, look no further than the phone you
already have in your pocket.