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Re: Romney will be the nominee

Originally Posted by Redress

Be very careful with those polls. Undecided is the leading candidate in many of them. While I will be watching and talking about the polls, at length and in depth, the reality right now is until the first couple votes happen, I am in the dark as to how it will go.

I agree with that...but theres no doubt gingrich is moving up and I dont see cain supporters going to romney over gingrich...but for sure its still up in the air...

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Too many conventional thinkers. That is the way you lose money, because Romney is way overrated in political circles. He has not won by default.

I will say there is a fifty, fifty chance between Gingrich and Romney. Romney may benefit if Gingrich messes up, but if he don't it is going to be a very tough battle for him. Gingrich has a lot of corporate backers, he has support from Fox News, and the debates have calmed down somewhat.

The amount of not-Romney supporters are the problem for Romney. Right now, there are two not-Romney candidates polling at the same level as Mitt Romney. If for instance Herman Cain drops out, where do you think his supporters will go?

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Cain was a godsend for Gingrich.
Everybody knows Gingrich's history of cheating on wife and divorcing her at her worst moment. But the key word is "history". Our memories are short and we are more concerned about this present revelation of Cain and his sexual exploits. The press isn't hounding Gingrich about all his past exploits.

It is kind of funny in a way as what Gingrich did was probably far worst than Cain's but since Cain started out lying about his events he has came looking worst.
If Gingrich said what he did to his former wife was wrong and he realizes that now and is not going to lie or deny that to the voters he would gain points above Cain who has been caught lying to the voters.

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Originally Posted by Redress

While I think he will be, I also point out that 4 years ago at this point we all knew Clinton was going to win the nomination. I really think the route to winning is starting to change some and the conventional wisdom has not yet caught up, so I am very hesitant to say firmly that any person is going to win the nomination.

True, but it is also a lot harder for Republicans given their winner take all in the primary voting. Part of the reason Obama was able to stay in the race was because, even by losing a state race, he still got a large amount of delegate votes.

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Originally Posted by Redress

Obama was as much a nobody at that time as any one in the republican field now. His one big thing was delivering a speak at the 2004 democratic convention. Outside of that, he was just a junior senator.

Obama was very popular among the Democratic base, and was the primary not-Hillary candidate by this point. He certainly wasn't a nobody at this time; virtually everyone knew who he was and most Democrats liked what they saw. His poll numbers were quite competitive with Clinton's, and very few people were willing to write off his chances of winning the nomination even though she was still the frontrunner.

Who is the Barack Obama in this Republican field who will use all the enthusiasm his campaign generates to defeat the GOP establishment's candidate?

Last edited by Kandahar; 11-12-11 at 01:58 PM.

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Re: Romney will be the nominee

I think the continuing reluctance of Republicans to accept Romney speaks volumes concerning the power social conservatives continue to have over the primary process. The only possible reason Romney is not blowing away everyone else is because (1) he is Mormon and (2) because he has taken socially moderate-to-liberal positions in the past.

One could argue that the above is false, and that Republicans don't like Romney because he is a flip-flopper on fiscal issues, but if that is the case, Huntsman should have risen to the top of the pack by now. He is probably the most credible fiscal conservative of all of the candidates, but has been overpassed in turn by Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich.

The only thing Huntsman and Romney have in common is their religion and their apathy toward social conservative issues. This leads, IMO, to the unavoidable conclusion that the majority of Republicans still consider these issues to be more important than fiscal conservatism. Which is extremely troubling.

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Originally Posted by Krhazy

I think the continuing reluctance of Republicans to accept Romney speaks volumes concerning the power social conservatives continue to have over the primary process. The only possible reason Romney is not blowing away everyone else is because (1) he is Mormon and (2) because he has taken socially moderate-to-liberal positions in the past.

One could argue that the above is false, and that Republicans don't like Romney because he is a flip-flopper on fiscal issues, but if that is the case, Huntsman should have risen to the top of the pack by now. He is probably the most credible fiscal conservative of all of the candidates, but has been overpassed in turn by Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich.

The only thing Huntsman and Romney have in common is their religion and their apathy toward social conservative issues. This leads, IMO, to the unavoidable conclusion that the majority of Republicans still consider these issues to be more important than fiscal conservatism. Which is extremely troubling.

They want both fiscal conservatism and social conservatism in a viable candidate. That doesn't sound troubling to me, other than the fact that they may not get such a candidate.

I wouldn't say for sure that Romney will get it, but it's a significant problem for the other candidates to overcome his seemingly stand-by presence.

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Originally Posted by Redress

Obama was as much a nobody at that time as any one in the republican field now. His one big thing was delivering a speak at the 2004 democratic convention. Outside of that, he was just a junior senator.

When I saw that 2004 speech I actually said: "That guy could be President!"

When he actually ran for President, I watched, studied and learned about the guy.

Re: Romney will be the nominee

Originally Posted by Crosscheck

Cain was a godsend for Gingrich.
Everybody knows Gingrich's history of cheating on wife and divorcing her at her worst moment. But the key word is "history". Our memories are short and we are more concerned about this present revelation of Cain and his sexual exploits. The press isn't hounding Gingrich about all his past exploits.

It is kind of funny in a way as what Gingrich did was probably far worst than Cain's but since Cain started out lying about his events he has came looking worst.
If Gingrich said what he did to his former wife was wrong and he realizes that now and is not going to lie or deny that to the voters he would gain points above Cain who has been caught lying to the voters.