He'll win the 2014 Heisman because… Michigan is going to be better. Really. This was/is a young team that's getting better with strong recruiting classes about to mature and kick in, and Gardner will be the leader of the fun. The stats should be solid – he'll finish 2013 with over 3,000 passing yards with 21 regular season passing scores and 11 on the ground – and he'll have his share of big chances in the big games to show what he can do. Between the last two games against Northwestern, and the loss to Ohio State this year – outside of the final pass attempt – he showed off what he can do. Now he'll have the experience to go along with all of the tools.

He won't win because … he might not be consistent enough. Everything is in place talent-wise, and the team should be far better and stronger, but can he avoid the low points? The Akron and UConn games are still on the resume, and he'll have to maintain a high level well into November. Ask Denard Robinson what it's like for a Michigan quarterback to start out hot in the Heisman race.