Who's No. 2? Alabama/Oklahoma State BCS debate heads to the polls

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama -- The games are done. All that's left is the politicking and tallying the votes and computer rankings to determine if No. 2 Alabama joins No. 1 LSU in an All-SEC BCS Championship Game on Jan. 9.

As Alabama watched the final Saturday from home, No. 3 Oklahoma State attempted to make its case as the best one-loss team by routing No. 10 Oklahoma 44-10. Oklahoma State also was helped by No. 5 Virginia Tech's loss to Clemson, likely swinging more human votes to the Cowboys.

"Outside of LSU losing, everything went as perfectly as it possibly could have for Oklahoma State today," ESPN BCS analyst Brad Edwards said. "What it really comes down to is how many voters woke up this morning willing to be swayed by whatever happened today. I think we're going to have drama tomorrow."

Two-thirds of the BCS formula comes from the Harris and USA Today coaches' poll and one-third from computer rankings. Edwards expects Oklahoma State to move ahead of Alabama to No. 2 in the computers, meaning the decision comes down to the voters.

Oklahoma State needs to be ranked No. 2 on 25 percent of the 174 ballots between the two polls and No. 3 on all the others to pass Alabama, according to Edwards. The Crimson Tide was No. 2 on 95 percent of ballots last week.

Twenty-five percent equals 44 voters between the two polls. There were already nine voters this week who didn't have Alabama No. 2, meaning Oklahoma State needs to sway 35.

"I would think there would be less movement in the coaches' poll," Edwards said. "Because there are a number of media members who vote in the Harris Poll, I would think there is a possibility of a lot of anti-rematch sentiment for Alabama-LSU again."

The politicking began early Saturday, when Alabama coach Nick Saban appeared on ESPN's College GameDay to make his case for another game against LSU.

"If you're a college football fan you had to love that first football game that we had against LSU," said Saban, who votes in the coaches' poll. "There was great tension in the game. The whole nation was watching. It was one of the highest-rated games. There were a lot of great football players out there that made a lot of great plays. It was what football was all about, and the game ended up a 6-6 tie at the end of regulation."

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy, who doesn't have a vote in the coaches' poll, framed the debate this way to ABC late Saturday night: "I think people have to decide whether they want to see a 9-6 game or a 39-36 game. I think this is the opportunity for people to find out how good the defense is in the SEC. We'd like to have that challenge."

Alabama has defeated two teams currently ranked in the BCS (Arkansas and Penn State); Oklahoma State has beaten five (Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas and Missouri). Alabama lost 9-6 in overtime at home to No. 1 LSU; Oklahoma State lost 37-31 in double-overtime at unranked Iowa State.

The Birmingham News sampled some Harris Poll voters across the country for how they plan to vote.

George Schroeder, a columnist for the Eugene (Ore.) Register-Guard, said he will move Oklahoma State to No. 2 ahead of Alabama because the Cowboys routed a huge rival and have a better resume than Alabama.

"Oklahoma State did lose to a 6-6 Iowa State team in overtime," Schroeder said. "It was a horrendous loss. It was also a day they spent the entire day thinking about a plane crash (that killed two Oklahoma State women's basketball coaches). That doesn't mean I'm voting them out of sympathy. It does mean it's not quite the same if they went down there a week earlier and lost in the same fashion."

Former Kentucky and Oregon coach Rich Brooks said he wasn't swayed to move Alabama from No. 2 after routing the Sooners, citing Oklahoma's three losses.

Newark (N.J.) Star-Ledger reporter Tom Luicci said prior to Oklahoma State's win that he would keep Alabama at No. 2 no matter what the Cowboys did. "Only one team in the country has come close to LSU," Luicci said. "So, to me, it's case closed."

Washington Times reporter Patrick Stevens, who didn't get to watch much of Saturday's games due to work obligations, said he will vote Alabama No. 2 "by a nose."

"Oklahoma State lost in overtime to Iowa State and Alabama had every opportunity to beat the best team in the country," he said.

Kansas City Star reporter Blair Kerkhoff is going to sleep on his decision after entering Saturday thinking Alabama was clearly No. 2.

"Oklahoma State did the one thing that leaves me short of a commitment tonight," Kerkhoff said. "I still think if you compare Alabama and Oklahoma State and Stanford as one-loss teams, that Alabama still has the best body of work. But Oklahoma State's final statement is resounding so that's part of the consideration, too."

Kerkhoff believes there will be Harris Poll voters in Big 12 country who take into account the plane crash on the day of Oklahoma State's loss.

"I don't know if I apply that," he said. "They had a 17-point lead and lost in overtime to a team that ends up 6-6. Maybe when it's all said and done, that's the bottom line. Alabama lost to a team that's 13-0 now."

Birmingham News reporter Steve Irvine said he will also sleep on his vote and is leaning toward Alabama at No. 2.

"I think it sort of comes down to who had the worst loss because the body of work is pretty close," Irvine said. "I didn't think it was going to be this tough."

Auburn and Chick-fil-A Bowl

Meanwhile, Auburn is expected to play at the Chick-fil-A Bowl on Dec. 31 in Atlanta against an ACC team, possibly Virginia Tech. That would mean Auburn closes 2011 in Atlanta and opens there in 2012 with the Chick-fil-A Kickoff against Clemson.

Despite getting blown out in four of its last six games, Auburn will be the only SEC team with a winning record available for the Chick-fil-A.

"I would be shocked if Chick-fil-A would drop down to take 6-6 Florida with Auburn sitting there," said Gator Bowl President Rick Catlett, whose game picks after the Chick-fil-A. "The Chick-fil-A is going to protect the value of its tickets better than anybody else. If they take a 6-6 Florida, for example, the Gators fans are not going to travel up there. They may not even travel here (to Jacksonville) and they live here."

The Capital One Bowl, which has the first SEC pick after the BCS, is expected to take South Carolina. That would likely send Georgia to the Outback Bowl and Arkansas to the Cotton Bowl.

Who goes to Birmingham's bowl?

The BBVA Compass Bowl picture remains cloudy with its convoluted arrangements when there's not a bowl-eligible SEC team for Birmingham, as is the case this season.

Big East and Conference USA officials said earlier this week they expected that if the SEC got only two up in the BCS, their leagues would play in Birmingham. The SEC will stay at two in the BCS since LSU defeated Georgia.

Because the SEC won't be in Birmingham, a higher team in the Big East pecking order goes to the Liberty Bowl to play the SEC. That will likely be Cincinnati to play Vanderbilt.

That leaves the BBVA Compass with a fairly unattractive Big East option for both sides: Pittsburgh, again. CBSSports.com reported the Big East told Pitt it's going to the BBVA Compass but the Panthers are resisting and it's up in the air.

Pitt (6-6), which has beaten one Football Bowl Subdivision team with a winning record, travels poorly and played in Birmingham last season. Southern Mississippi's upset over Houston knocked the Cougars out of the BCS and leaves C-USA's bowl situation in flux.