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Friday, June 28, 2013

If you’ve listened to virtually any episode of “Dugout Blues,” you’d know Chris Reed is “my boy,” as dubbed by Jared Massey. He was massively overdrafted, which put him behind the proverbial 8-ball (at least with me) from the start.

While he’s
still likely a future reliever, Reed is showing at least the slightest chance of
remaining in the rotation -- at least for now.

But Reed’s success this season isn’t without some concern,
because who else but his No. 1 fan bring up something negative?

Reed has a 3.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a 3.61 FIP as a
23-year-old at Double-A Chattanooga. Those numbers are solid, especially since
he started the season poorly.

In his first nine appearances (eight starts, one relief, 46
2/3 IP), he had a 5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a .290 batting average against and a
1.67 ground out-to-fly out rate. He was 1-5 and looking like a permanent move
to the bullpen was nigh. Yet, Reed turned it around, and it’s been rather impressive.

Since that time (six starts, one relief appearance, 41 1/3
innings), he has a sparkling 1.31 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, a .177 BAA and a 2.18 GB/FB
ratio. Of his 25 hits allowed, just five have been for extra bases (two home
runs, two doubles and one triple). That’s elite-level performance by the 2011
first-round pick.

One of Reed's relief appearances was a five-inning outing because Dodger reliever Scott Elbert got the "start" on May 18.

He’s also throwing more innings than he ever has. In two of
Reed’s last three starts, he’s thrown at eight innings and has eight starts of
at least six innings in 14 total starts. On the season, he's averaging 5.8 innings per start. That's not great, but it shows he's not totally failing with the conversion from college reliever to pro starter.

I’m not changing my tune on Reed, but his turnaround has been
impressive. What's surprising is his strikeout rate. He struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings in 2012 between High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Chattanooga. He only struck out 7.4 per nine with the Lookouts. This season, he only has a 6.0 K/9, which is some cause for concern. However, he has a 2.67 GB/FB ratio on the season, and that has improved every season. Last year, he posted a 2.02 GB/FB rate.

Chris Reed is a ground ball pitcher, which is somewhat surprising because he profiled best as a fastball/power slider guy. But it appears his two-seam fastball is the reason his profile has changed.

He's also walking batters at a career-low rate this season (2.9 BB/9). He was a 4.4 last season, including 5.1 at Chattanooga.

If the better control, more grounders and fewer strikeouts formula works for Reed, that's great. Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb (not comparing Reed to either of them directly) had great careers using the sinker. Starters don't have to strikeout a batter an inning to be successful. Reed could revert to his strikeout ways if he moves to the bullpen, but right now, he looks like a he could have a future in the rotation.

With Reed's name having come up in trade talks (specifically regarding Ricky Nolasco), he couldn't have picked a better time to increase his trade value.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Chris Anderson made quite the statement with his
professional debut on Tuesday night. It’s the smallest of sample sizes, but his
debut should fill Dodger fans with optimism.

Anderson, the Dodgers’ first-round draft pick in 2013,
struck out the side in his first inning of work. He did so on just 10 pitches,
nine of which were strikes. That’s impressive in its own right. But the fact
all nine of those strikes were swinging and
on his fastball is almost unbelievable.

He only struck out
two in his second -- and last -- inning of work. He finished with the following
line:

2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 27 pitches, 20 strikes

Probably couldn’t have drawn it up any better than that. He
topped out at 98 MPH with his fastball and sat in the 90-96 MPH range while
flashing a plus mid-80s slider. He didn’t throw his changeup, which is
something I’d like to see him do consistently before season’s end. It was just
his first start and, despite being on a 50-inning limit, he’ll have plenty of
time to throw it.

Jared Massey said he counted 14 swings and misses. If
accurate, just two of Anderson’s 20 strikes were put into play -- a fly out to
left and a bloop single. That’s awfully impressive.

Anderson is a surefire Top 10 prospect in the system, and
more likely a Top 5 guy. I’m doing my midseason Top 25 update in July, and
Anderson will surely make an appearance.

Second-round draft pick Tom Windle also made his debut -- piggybacking
with Anderson (as he will do for the foreseeable future). While he wasn’t as
impressive, it was a good debut for Windle as well:

2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K

The only velocity reading I heard on his fastball was 91
MPH, which is true to scouting reports. His slider made an appearance (got a
strikeout on the pitch) and hit 86 MPH on the radar gun.

His profile still screams reliever to me, but it’ll be nice
to see him throw against Midwest League hitters the rest of the season.

Also, Jared Massey made an interesting observation while recording
“Dugout Blues” Tuesday night. This is the first time he (and I) can remember the
Dodgers first three draft picks have all been on the same roster in full-season
ball immediately after being drafted (Anderson, Windle, Brandon Dixon). The
Great Lakes Loons are benefiting from the draft and the infusion of talent to
an already talented roster. The Dodgers have leaned so heavily on high
schoolers early in the draft for so many years that it is surprising to see all
their first three picks on the same team.

Cody Bellinger won’t make making an appearance in Midland anytime soon
(Arizona Rookie League, 18 years old), but guys like J.D. Underwood and Jacob
Rhame -- both at Ogden -- could be promoted if they perform well enough in the
Pioneer League.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Joc Pederson will represent the Dodgers at the 2013 Futures Game on the Sunday before the All-Star game. The 21-year-old is doing some good things in the Southern League.

He's not hitting as well as he was earlier this season, but he's still posting respectable numbers: .296/.383/.500, 11 home runs, 34 RBI, 53 runs scored and 21 stolen bases (in 24 attempts).

Every year, the top prospects are selected to play in what is essentially a prospect all-star game. There is a United States team and a World team. Last year, Chris Reed represented the Dodgers for the World team as he was born in London. Teams can only send two players -- one on each squad -- for this exhibition game.

Here's a list of Dodger prospects to participate in the Futures Game since its inception in 1999:

The best player the Dodgers have ever sent is obviously Kershaw. Gutierrez is about the only position player to make an impact in the majors and Jackson has been a serviceable starter.

I was hoping one of the hard-throwing relievers would get the nod on the World side (i.e. Jose Dominguez), but it didn't happen. Yasiel Puig would have been a lock for the squad if he weren't promoted to the majors. At this rate, he could be a Los Angeles Dodger representative in New York.

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) talk about the return of Matt Kemp to the Dodgers' lineup. Here's hoping he's healthy enough to start being a valuable contributor.

Then there's the obligatory Yasiel Puig update. He's still really good at this baseball thing.

I question why the Dodgers have Puig in left field and Andre Ethier playing right field. I understand why it's happening, I just don't agree with it.

Chris Anderson and Tom Windle made their professional debuts with the Great Lakes Loons on Tuesday. Anderson was particularly impressive.

Julio Urias, who checked in at No. 41 on Jason Parks' (Baseball Prospectus) midseason Top 50 prospect list, has struggled a bit in his last two starts. I feel I say this a lot, but he is just 16 years old. Another teenager made Parks' list in Corey Seager (No. 35). He's starting to hit and hit with authority.

Zach Lee and Chris Reed (my boy) are having nice seasons with the Lookouts. Lee's strikeout rate is the highest of his career while Reed's is the lowest, yet Reed is still having success. We also talk about Justin Chigbogu, who's off to a fast start in the Arizona Rookie League.

The Dodgers won't lose a draft pick due to overspending, which is a good thing.

Finally, we answer listener questions. Please, keep them coming. Also, we're at 20 reviews on iTunes. I'm challenging the listeners to get that number to 23 by next week's episode. And, in case you were wondering, Jared did get to 1,000 followers.

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

I wrote on Monday the Dodgers were dangerously close to going over their draft spending pool limit. Luckily, the bonuses given to J.D. Underwood (5th-rounder, $360,000), Kyle Farmer (8th, $40,000) and Nick Keener (10th, $5,000) kept the Dodgers in the black.

The Dodgers were able to go $260,585 over budget (5 percent of their $5.2 million pool) without losing the 2014 pick. The team is now $27,485 in the black and probably won't spend much more of it.

Farmer

The Dodgers will have to pay a 75 percent luxury tax on the overage, which turns out to be $52,863.75 extra. A drop in the bucket for this ownership. The Dodgers also spent more than their allotted amount in 2012.

Despite what I wrote, I really didn't think the Dodgers were going to screw this up, but they sure did make it more "interesting" than it needed to be.

Underwood has some ability, but I'm interested to see how Farmer handles the transition behind the plate. He was a middle infielder and is going to be a catcher in professional ball.

Here's hoping the Dodgers don't make things this interesting next year. At this point, it's going to be a Top-10 pick, which wasn't the way they drew it up back in April.

The Pioneer League is a hitter-friendly league in the
rarefied air of Utah. Not many pitchers have success at the level -- especially
young pitchers. It will be interesting to see how some of the young guys handle
it.

The prospect on the Ogden roster closest to my Top 10 is Jesmuel Valentin (No. 13), who has already played with the Great Lakes Loons this
season. The next-closest player is Jesus Valdez (No. 24), who also spent some
time with the Loons this season.

Not a lot of surprises, but I am disappointed to see guys
like Valdez and Martinez on this roster. I thought they’d have more success in
full-season ball. I haven’t given up hope on them yet, but a guy like Valdez
needs to hit enough to get promoted back to Low-A and prove his worth. Martinez
is 18 (for another week), so I’m not as concerned about him.

There are some interesting players to keep an eye on with
this team. Santana was the Dodgers second-round pick in 2011 and should be the
team’s everyday third baseman. I chose him as my breakout prospect for 2013.
Valentin should hold down either shortstop or second base. Trinkwon will play
whichever position Valentin does not.

In the outfield, Curletta should have a field day in this
league. The powerful 2012 sixth-rounder should be the team’s starting right
fielder and eventual cleanup hitter. He has legitimate 70-grade power. Stover
is another guy who played with the Loons earlier this season. As the team’s 40th-rounder
last year, it’s nice to see him actually playing.

In the rotation, this team has guys who have a lot of arm
talent. Barlow is recovering from Tommy John surgery last season, but he has an
electric arm and a legitimate breaking ball. He also throws a “show me” slider
and changeup that could be average with work. Martinez had great success in the
Arizona Rookie League last year before struggling as an 18-year-old in the
Midwest League. The rest of the rotation should be filled with 2013 draftees.
Underwood has a nice sinker/curveball combination, as does Rhame. Johnson is a
soft-tossing lefty who could do well as an older pitcher against younger
competition.

The bullpen has some good arms as well as guys who can swap
spots with the rotation guys if need be.

My best guess at a lineup

Valentin SS

Trinkwon 2B

Stover DH/LF

Valdez 1B

Santana 3B

Curletta RF

Scavuzzo CF

Cowen/Farmer C

Yates LF/DH

I’m sure I missed on just about every spot (guess we’ll see tonight).
There aren’t as many exciting prospects this year in Ogden, but there are
definitely some guys to keep an eye on throughout the summer.

Since Logan White took over as scouting director (now vice
president of amateur scouting and assistant general manager), the Dodgers have
been known for drafting high school players.

White’s first draft pick was James Loney in 2002, a high
school first baseman (who some viewed as a pitcher) from Texas.

While White’s crew has selected prep players in the first
round (and supplemental first round) 13 of 19 times, it seems the philosophy
has changed -- especially in recent years.

Here it is in table form.

Year

College

HS

HS%

2013

31

9

22.5%

2012

26

14

35.0%

2011

36

14

28.0%

2010

32

18

36.0%

2009

30

21

41.2%

2008

26

19

42.2%

2007

19

20

51.3%

2006

21

29

58.0%

2005

25

26

51.0%

2004

30

22

42.3%

2003

14

36

72.0%

2002

22

30

57.7%

Total

312

258

45.3%

As you can see, there has been fluctuation in the types of
players drafted by White. But never had he drafted high schoolers less than 40
percent of the time before 2010. That’s been the norm for the last four years,
capped with just 22.5 percent high schoolers drafted this year. And the team has drafted more college players than high schooler players since 2002.

Three of White’s last five first-round picks have been college players:

In White’s first draft, he selected 30 high schoolers compared to 22 college players. In 2003, he selected 36 prep players compared to just 14 college players. That would be the highest percentage of high school draftees in any White draft. This year, the Dodgers drafted 31 college players and just nine high schoolers -- a drastic shift.

Some say it could be the new ownership having a say about
who to draft (i.e. Stan Kasten), some say the team wants guys who are closer
to the majors. While I’m not against drafting players who are closer to the majors,
I am against passing on higher-ceiling prospects for lower-floor guys. I know
those guys are a must in all farm systems, but it seems the Dodgers took that
too much to heart in this year’s draft.

Cody Bellinger was the team’s only high school draftee in
the first 10 rounds, and they didn’t select a prep pitcher until the 13th round
(Ty Damron). That’s unheard of for White and Co.

The Dodgers had a poor farm system from the late 1990s until
White took over. Guys like Chin-Feng Chen, Angel Pena and Ben Diggins were among the team's top prospects. In just three years, White made the Dodgers a Top 5 farm
system in baseball for a number of years. Once the draft philosophy shifted from prep to college,
the farm system’s overall ranking went down. It could be coincidence or it could be the
fact ex-owner Frank McCourt hamstrung the Dodgers’ spending. But the fact is,
the Dodgers haven’t been a Top 15 farm system in since graduating Clayton Kershaw during the 2008 season. after being a
perennial Top 6 system for four years in a row in the mid-2000s.

There’s nothing wrong with drafting college players, but college
players – unless choosing near the top of the draft -- offer less upside than
high school players in most cases. Most college guys offer little projection
but more present-day value.

I’m partial to high school talent. I wanted the team to take
Ian Clarkin (who just signed with the Yankees) instead of Anderson. But I’ve
warmed up to Anderson. The team had to go nearly $300,000 more than slot to
sign its lone prep draftee in the first 10 rounds in Bellinger. Other than
those two, the Dodgers didn’t draft guys with much impact potential. That’s
thanks in large part to the poor draft class but also because they didn’t take
nearly enough chances.

There’s some maneuvering with the new Collective Bargaining
Agreement. The Dodgers landed Ross Stripling in the fifth round last year for
nearly $100,000 less than slot. Fast forward a year and Stripling is an easy
Top 10 prospect in the system and more likely a Top 5 guy. He’s the exception,
not the rule.

Here’s hoping the Dodgers and White get back to their high
school-drafting ways. While the 2012 draft looks like it could be one of the best in White's tenure, the 2013 draft could go down as his most lackluster.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) talk about Clayton Kershaw's potential extension and whether it's a good or bad thing that the information was leaked. I don't think it was a big deal.

After a mini-tangent by yours truly, we talk about that Yasiel Puig guy and how incredible he's been and will be.

Finally, we talk more about the 2013 MLB Draft (and a little about the 2014 draft) and how the Dodgers are dangerously close to losing next year's first-round selection.

Finally, we answer listener questions, which were solid this week. Please, keep them coming. And thank you folks for the reviews and ratings on iTunes. Please feel free to leave one if you haven't yet.

Also, Jared wants to get to 1,000 followers by the next recording. Give him a follow at @Dodger_Diamond.

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

The 2013 Dodgers' draft doesn't look nearly as impressive as the 2012 class, but there are few future contributors in this group.

The Dodgers seemingly changed their approach, opting for college players with nine of their first 10 picks -- a change from the norm. Logan White is known for drafting high schoolers and developing them.

Positional breakdown (round number in parenthesis)21 pitchers, 19 position players, 31 college, 9 high school

All bonus amounts after the 10th round are for $100,000 or less unless otherwise reported:Law, Johnson, McDonald, Hennessey, Baune, Fisher, Hooper, Taylor, Moyer.

(These categories are from the Baseball America Prospect Handbook)

Best pure hitter
Dixon. He has an advanced approach, but he doesn't show much power. Bellinger could profile here, too.

Bellinger

Best power hitter
Bellinger. At 6'4, 180, he has some filling out to do. But he's drawn comparisons to Adam LaRoche, who has 207 home runs in 10 MLB seasons. McWilliam could also have big power down the road.

Fastest baserunner
Moyer or McDonald. The Dodgers didn't choose many speedsters in this draft.

Best defensive player
Trinkwon. He has soft hands and good instincts. He might be a second baseman, but he'll stay at shortstop for the time being.

Best fastball
Anderson. He touches 97 MPH in the rotation with some sink. Windle can also touch 94 MPH and should play up out of the bullpen, where he likely ends up. Rhame, like Anderson, can sink his low-to-mid-90s heater.

Best secondary pitch
Anderson. His slider and changeup flash plus potential, but his sliders is his best secondary pitch. Underwood boasts a solid upper-70s curveball.

Best athlete
Farmer. He's not a physically imposing player, but he's moving from the middle infield to behind the dish

Most intriguing background
Anderson. The Minnesota native went to school in Jacksonville and was basically run into the ground. It'll be interesting to see how he handles professional baseball. The Dodgers will limit him to 50 innings in his pro debut, ala Ross Stripling last season. Windle is also on an innings limit.

Closest to the Majors
Windle. He could make it to the majors first before Anderson strictly on the fact he'll likely be a reliever. Don't expect any guys from the 2013 class this season, though.

Best late-round selection (20th round an on)
Scott. The high school backstop could be a nice get for the Dodgers if they can sign him away from his college commitment.

The one who could get away
McWilliam. The prep third baseman could be the toughest sign of the draft for the Dodgers. It's unknown whether he's committed to a college, but with a 6'5, 170-pound frame, there's all kinds of room for projection and improvement on the college level.

Assessment
I don't like this draft as much as last year. There aren't many impact guys here (a theme throughout the entire draft), and the Dodgers went the college route more than I'd like. Anderson is a solid pick and should be a back-end rotation innings-eater at worst (a No. 2 bull at best). I don't like using a second-rounder on a probable reliever and the lack of higher-upside high school talent disappoints me.

Monday, June 17, 2013

With the new collective bargaining agreement, teams are much
more creative in the MLB Draft than ever before. But since new CBA’s inception
a couple years ago, no team has ever had to forfeit a draft pick due to
overspending.

The Dodgers are dangerously close to doing so. The team
inked seventh-rounder Brandon Trinkwon (pictured) this morning for slot, which prompted
this post.

Here’s a breakdown of the signing bonuses the Dodgers have
given out to the 2013 draft class thus far.

Round

Player

Slot

Bonus

Savings

1

Chris Anderson

$2,109,900

$2,109,900

$0

2

Tom Windle

$986,500

$986,500

$0

3

Brandon Dixon

$566,500

$566,500

$0

4

Cody Bellinger

$409,000

$700,000

($291,000)

5

J.D. Underwood

$306,200

$306,200

$0

6

Jacob Rhame

$229,300

$300,000

($70,700)

7

Brandon Trinkwon

$171,900

$171,900

$0

8

Kyle Farmer

$153,600

unsigned

$0

9

Henry Yates

$143,500

$5,000

$138,500

10

Nick Keener

$135,300

unsigned

$0

11

Spencer Navin

$0

$200,000

($200,000)

Total

$5,211,700

$5,634,900

($423,200)

Notes:

Farmer has signed, but there’s been no announcement of his
bonus just yet.

Keneer should be a relatively easy sign. I’d be surprised if
he got more than the $5,000 Yates received. Last year’s 10th-rounder Zach
Babitt got a $2,500 bonus.

Normally, the 11th-rounder’s bonus wouldn’t count toward the
spending cap, but since the team spent $300,000 on Navin, $200,000 worth of it counts
toward the cap as all picks from the 10th round and on can get up to a $100,000
without it counting toward the cap.

As you can see, the Dodgers went way over slot with
Bellinger. As their only high school draftee on this list, that makes a little
sense.

The Dodgers can spend 5 percent more than the $5,211,700
allotted to them -- which works out to $260,585 -- without losing a draft pick. The
Dodgers need to save a combined $162,615 on Farmer and Keener for them to avoid
the penalty.

I trust the front office will figure it out, but this is a bit too close
for comfort. The 2014 draft is supposed to be much better than the 2013 draft,
and it would be a shame if the Dodgers didn’t have their first-round selection
for this reason.