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Friday, March 8, 2013

Keys to the Fight: Hopkins-Cloud

Saturday
features a compelling light heavyweight showdown between the legendary Bernard
Hopkins (52-6-2, 32 KOs) and undefeated titleholder Tavoris Cloud (24-0, 19
KOs) at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Hopkins (48) looks to
eclipse his own record by becoming the oldest boxer to win a major title belt
while Cloud (31) hopes to reenergize his career after escaping with a highly
disputed split decision victory over Gabriel Campillo in his last fight. Read
below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the
article.

1.
Punch output.

This
issue is a concern for both fighters. For many years, Hopkins has specialized
in slowing down the pace of his fights. What gets him in trouble (think of the
Taylor or Calzaghe fights) is when opponents significantly outwork him in terms of
punch volume. Although Hopkins may land the better punches in many of these
rounds, there just aren't enough of them. When Hopkins gets in offensive ruts,
where he throws only 20 punches a round, it's hard to find fault with judges
who decide to favor his significantly more active opponents.

Hopkins
has expressed regret in not letting his hands go enough in his losses,
especially in the Calzaghe fight. A much more energetic Hopkins emerged in his two fights against Jean Pascal. His performance in the second
Pascal bout helped reestablish his alpha status in the light heavyweight
division. However, against Chad Dawson, Hopkins' offensive hesitancy manifested
again. Dawson essentially outworked him to pick up a majority decision victory.

Against
Cloud, Hopkins has to be active enough for judges to give him close rounds. If
he's throwing even 35 punches a round, that might be enough to hold sway with
the judges. If he's at 25 or below, that's a warning sign, and most likely he
won't win the fight.

Cloud
has his own punch volume concerns. He takes rounds off and even within rounds
he sometimes lets up. Although Cloud is a pressure fighter and aggressively
stalks his opponents, to this point he doesn't fight three minutes of every
round. That doesn't mean that he fades late, but he'll find rounds, and moments
within rounds, to take breaks.

Cloud
cannot succumb to Hopkins' deliberate pace and he must resist the urge to take
his foot off of the gas. Every time that he slows down, he gives Hopkins an
opportunity to steal a round.

For
Cloud to win the fight, it's more about volume than even effectiveness. Hopkins
won't be able to match a 50-60 punch-per-round work rate. Cloud will give
himself the best chance to win the fight by constant activity.

2.
Stealing early rounds.

Hopkins
is one of the most notorious slow starters in boxing. He's not concerned about losing early rounds as he studies, feints and sizes up his opponents. Often
he'll look to land one or two big shots in each of the first few rounds (most likely
his patented lead right hand), but he's not necessarily trying to win them. In these early frames, he likes to intimidate his opponents by demonstrating how easily he can land on them while taking away their offensive strengths.
Strategically, he uses the first three rounds to sow crucial seeds of doubt.

Despite
Cloud's success in the first round against Campillo, he more often starts
deliberately, which is typical of a pressure fighter who gradually breaks down
his opponents (his victory over Yusaf Mack was a textbook illustration of
this). Think of Cloud as a younger version of Glen Johnson in terms of the type
of pressure that he applies.

In this fight, which will most likely be going to the cards, the first three rounds
will be critical. Let's be honest, unless something strange happens, like a
Cloud injury or a cut caused by a punch, Hopkins isn't scoring a knockout. And
while Hopkins was dropped by Pascal, his sturdy chin and steely determination
make it unlikely that he will be stopped early.

Both
fighters can be cavalier regarding the need to win early rounds. The boxer who
shows more initiative in the first frames will put himself in a much better
position in the second half of the match, where both of these fighters
typically perform at their best.

3.
Signs of Father Time.

Even
though Hopkins emerged victorious in the second Pascal fight, he wasn't the fresher
fighter down the stretch. In fact, Pascal had one of his best rounds in the
12th. In addition, the familiar second-half Hopkins push never materialized
against Dawson. These are troubling signs for a fighter who specialized
in breaking down his opponents physically and mentally over the course of a
match. He once owned the last six rounds.

If
Hopkins no longer has the energy reserves to come on strong, he quite simply is
a different fighter. In the past, he found that extra gear and kicked it up a notch
as his opponents started to tire. So much of Hopkins' success has been predicated on his second-half rallies. If he can't muster the same type of late-round energetic response that he has been famous for, he won't be able to beat Cloud.

4.
Movement and tricks.

Cloud
doesn't make quick adjustments in the ring. After Campillo got back into the
fight, Cloud needed several rounds to figure out how to overcome Campillo's
odd-angled shots, high punch volume and movement. Although no one would confuse
Hopkins, an orthodox and deliberate fighter, with Campillo, a sprightly southpaw, Hopkins certainly has all sorts of ways to confuse and flummox Cloud.

Hopkins
will tie up, grapple, wrestle, elbow, fake injuries, hit low and rabbit punch:
his usual smorgasbord of disengagement tactics. But movement may even be more
effective against Cloud, who is a straight-line fighter. By using angles and
the ring to his advantage, Hopkins will inhibit Cloud from launching his most
potent offense, which is when action is in the pocket and at
mid-range or closer. In addition, Hopkins' lead right hand, thrown from all
sorts of weird trajectories, will help keep Cloud honest.

Cloud
will be expecting the rough stuff on the inside and he's a physical
specimen as well. In fact, Cloud's left hook and short right hand may be better
punches at close range than anything that Hopkins has at this late point in his
career. Hopkins' best chance of winning the psychological game (and most likely
the fight) will be from the outside, circling the ring, employing angles and
throwing unconventional shots. I believe that a fight waged in the trenches favors Cloud.

5.
Body punching.

This
will be very important for both boxers. Cloud needs to land early to the body
in order to slow Hopkins down later in the fight. Hopkins should go downstairs
on the inside to keep Cloud from aggressively charging forward.

Both
fighters have been good body punchers in the past but they don't always feature
it as frequently as they should. Cloud has a nice left hook to the body and
occasionally will throw a straight right hand downstairs. At times, Hopkins
can be very effective jabbing to the body and he'll also throw left and right
hooks to the body during grappling sessions – he’s an expert at using his free
hand.

The
boxer who can win the body punching battle will have much better success in
dictating the style of the fight. If Cloud can establish his body work, Hopkins
will be softened up in the later rounds and less of a threat. Should Hopkins
effectively assert his body punching, Cloud will be far more reticent to come inside, giving
Hopkins additional opportunities to pick him off from the outside with his more
accurate punching.

Prediction:

One
basic question will determine who wins this fight: Will Hopkins let his hands
go enough to win seven rounds? All of the other factors surrounding the fight
pale in comparison to this central premise. For me, the answer is no. Hopkins
will frustrate, stymie, disengage, trick, clown and bluster; but he won't be
able to let his hands go consistently. Ultimately, one must throw enough
punches to win. Because of Cloud's pressure/higher punch volume and Hopkins' flagging energy level,
I don't think that Hopkins will be offensive-minded enough to win the balance
of the rounds. Look for Cloud to win early, Hopkins to come on in the middle rounds and Cloud to pull away late.

Tavoris
Cloud defeats Bernard Hopkins by a competitive unanimous decision, along the lines of 116-112, or
eight rounds to four.