Will Jim Harbaugh's big quarterback gamble pay off?

SANTA CLARA -- Jim Harbaugh counts among his friends Phil Hellmuth, the world champion poker player, and it's clear why they have so much in common. The 49ers coach isn't afraid of a little gamble, either.

Harbaugh pushed in all his chips this season with a midseason change of starting quarterbacks, and on Saturday against the Green Bay Packers, the coach finds out if lucky No. 7 comes up a winner. That's the jersey number of Colin Kaepernick, the boundlessly talented, minimally experienced quarterback who earned Harbaugh's endorsement over the cautiously efficient Alex Smith.

Kaepernick has seven career NFL starts. His eighth comes this weekend in the NFC divisional round game at Candlestick Park. As Steve Young, the Hall of Fame quarterback noted, there's more than just a trip to the conference championship on the line this weekend. Harbaugh's reputation is at stake, too.

"Jim went all in. But that's Jim. That's his nature," said Young, who played for the 49ers from 1987 to '99. "He found the opening, went full speed and I don't think he looked back. People questioned him, even internally, and he just said, 'See you later. This is where I'm going.' "

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Harbaugh's choice, essentially, was Upside over Experience. Kaepernick is a strong-armed, nimble-footed dynamo who, in contrast to Smith, has delivered spectacular plays with regularity. Earlier this season, Kaepernick ripped off a 50-yard run, something no 49ers quarterback had done in the history of a franchise born in 1946.

Then, the next week, Kaepernick did it again.

That's why Troy Aikman, who like Young is a former Super Bowl MVP, said Harbaugh has the right man at the helm.

"I applauded Jim Harbaugh for making the decision when he did because it wasn't an easy decision to make," said Aikman, who will be handling analyst duties for the broadcast on Fox. "The easy thing to do would have been to go back to Alex Smith. And it wouldn't have necessarily been the wrong decision because Alex was playing really good football. But in the back of your mind as the coach, if you think, 'This gives our team the best chance to win,' then you have to do that."

Ron Jaworski, the former Pro Bowl quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, agreed. Now an ESPN analyst, Jaworski wrote on the network's website that, "Kaepernick is the reason I like the San Francisco 49ers to win it all. Between his arm strength and his foot speed, there is nothing the Niners' offense can't do. ... Kaepernick has shown good feel in the pocket and, like Robert Griffin of the Redskins, looks to make the pass first and doesn't default to his legs at the first sign of pressure."

San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks Alex Smith (11) and Colin Kaepernick (7) warm up before an NFL football game at the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans on Nov. 25, 2012. (Gerald Herbert/AP file)

But not everyone is so convinced that Harbaugh is doing the right thing. Trent Dilfer, a former 49ers quarterback who won a Super Bowl with the Baltimore Ravens, remains troubled by the way Smith lost his starting job in the first place. Smith suffered a concussion Nov. 11.

He walked off the field that day as the NFL leader in completion percentage and with a quarterback rating that ranked among the NFL's best. But his job was gone for good. Kaepernick got the start even when Smith was medically cleared to play starting Nov. 25.

"This is one of the dark sides of the NFL," Dilfer told KNBR-680 radio this week. "Here's Alex trying to do the right thing with the head injury and it winds up costing him his job and, most likely, his career in San Francisco. You wonder why players lie about their head injuries? It's for this exact reason."

Dilfer, an Aptos native, said he's still rooting for the 49ers to beat the Packers. But he said he is "concerned' about Kaepernick's experience level, noting that the 49ers advanced to the NFC Championship game last season largely on the strength of Smith's savvy performance against the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round.

"It really scares me because I know what it takes to win in the playoffs," Dilfer, now an ESPN analyst, said on the radio. "And every year the formula is pretty much the same. Yes, you have to be explosive. Yes, you have to do some of the dynamic things that Colin will do. But you have to do the little things. You have to manage the game.

"You have to do all the graduate level things that, to be honest with you, Colin hasn't been very good at it. He's masked them with a lot of the sizzle. But the nuances of the game -- the little things that sustain long drives, that keep your defense off the field -- those are the things I'm concerned that against the better teams he won't be able to do as well as Alex."

Kurt Warner, a former Super Bowl MVP, also has his doubts. He was critical of Harbaugh's quarterback change at the time, and now, as the divisional round approaches, he wonders if the 49ers tinkered too much with a winning formula. In a phone interview, Warner said he is enthusiastic about Kaepernick's potential but said the 49ers had an "identity" under Smith that they are redefining under his replacement.

"The big thing for me is that over the past year and a half, the 49ers had an identity: This is how we can win. 'Alex, do what you do. Make good decisions. Don't turn the ball over and let the running game and defense take care of the rest,' " said Warner, a two-time league MVP who is now an NFL Network analyst. "With Colin, it's changing the complexity of how the team plays. The 49ers are trying to play to his strengths by taking their shots downfield.

"But sometimes, those throws are going to be incomplete. Sometimes, they're going to be interceptions. And that can take your offense off the field really quickly and give someone like [Green Bay QB] Aaron Rodgers more opportunities."

Over the course of the regular season, Smith and Kaepernick had similar statistics -- right down to exactly 218 passes for each. Kaepernick threw for more yards (1,814 to 1,737), ran for more yards (415 to 132) and threw fewer interceptions (3 to 5). Smith had the edge in touchdown passes (13 to 10), QB rating (104.1 to 98.3) and completion percentage (70 to 62).

The 49ers went 6-2-1 in games started by Smith, including a 30-22 victory over the Packers in Week 1.

The 49ers were 5-2 in games started by Kaepernick, including pressure-cooker triumphs over the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots.

But, as Young noted, none of those numbers matters now.

"Harbaugh has a lot of built-up goodwill in the bank with everyone in San Francisco because of his record," the ESPN analyst said. "But certainly, if it all blows up on Saturday, that will take a lot of that goodwill out of the bank.

"Now, that doesn't change much. I mean, Harbaugh is still going to be around and is still going to be a great coach. But it's a high-risk situation. And where that high risk is, there's high reward. And, obviously, things can be lost."

Steve Corkran and Jerry McDonald of the Bay Area News Group contributed to this report.