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Google's Seven Display Ad Predictions

What will
display advertising look like by 2015? At the Interactive Advertising Bureau's MIXX Conference 2010 in New York, advertising executives got a taste this week of the future of display advertising from
Neal Mohan, vice president of product management at Google, and Barry Salzman, managing director of media and platforms at Google.

Mohan and Salzman made seven predictions on what the
future of display advertising could look like by 2015, while sharing innovations that Google engineers have been working on for the past few months. Real-time search and social media opens up a
variety of options for advertisers.

Google's Seven Predictions By 2015:

1) 50% of online ads will have video in them and be bought on a cost-per-view basis. Today, 24
hours of video content are uploaded to YouTube each minute. Google Tuesday officially launched two YouTube video formats, TrueView, based on a cost-per-view advertising model after dabbling in it for
nearly a year. This means advertisers only pay when consumers chose to watch the advertisement. TrueView will roll out later this year.

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2) 50% of all display advertising targeted to a
specific audience will rely on real-time bidding.

3) Mobile will become the No. 1 screen for advertising. The mobile screen will become the first screen that consumers go to on a
variety of mobile devices.

4) Five new metrics will emerge to measure the success of ad campaigns. They will become more successful and important. Some exist already: engagement and
interaction rates in rich media, video view, and impact on Web search results. Others might include sentiment analysis to measure the viral influence and the tone of consumer chatter about the brand
across the Internet. Or, measure foot traffic into the store through geo-based technology.

5) 75% of ads will become socially enabled. In the long term, all ads will become social as
the industry moves to an always-on communication.

6) 50% of brand campaigns will run rich media in the ads, up from 6% during the last year.

7) Display advertising will
become a $50 billion industry. Google advertisers have increased the amount they spend annually with the technology company about 75% during the last year.

Hmmm....seems to me Google's crystal ball is a bit dusty. Whilst I have no problem whatsoever in them pushing their own agenda, I do take issue with predictions that undermine industry growth and innovation.

I certainly hope that by 2015 we have gone beyond buying video on a cost per view basis. Already a well established currency for the last few years, CPV does not account for genuine engagement. Simply questions need to enter the equation: Did a user actually watch the content, duration of view, did they like/rate the content, did they share it etc..?

If this is possible now (we do this - Open IMU) surely by 2015 this could and should be the norm.