Since the projection report is suppose to be an accurate representation on the tourney selection criteria:

Q: How are the at-large bids determined? What about the seeding?
A: There are in fact two distinct phases that must occur before the National Tournament can begin. The first is the selection process which is used to determine which teams will be receiving the at-large bids to the tournament. Some of the criteria evaluated include:

Record

Overall RPI

Non-conference record

Non-conference RPI

Conference record

Conference RPI

Road record

Record in last 10 games

Record against teams ranked 1-50 by RPI

Record against teams ranked 51-100 by RPI

Record against teams ranked 101-200 by RPI

Record against teams ranked below 200 by RPI

For most empty mid-majors, the issue typically revolves around that most conference games involve SIMs which have poor RPI and/or SOS which typically drags down resumes which is what I think is the problem in your case (having most of your wins involving teams with 200+ RPIs and not enough ones below 100 RPI).

As you may or may not know, I produce my own, real-life CBB rankings and I feel those used to create the projection report are rather similar to what I produce, which is just a bit of an extended RPI of sorts...it's like RPI but carried out to the next step.

Posted by colonels19 on 5/3/2013 11:44:00 PM (view original):As you may or may not know, I produce my own, real-life CBB rankings and I feel those used to create the projection report are rather similar to what I produce, which is just a bit of an extended RPI of sorts...it's like RPI but carried out to the next step.

Where are you going with this Trevor? Are you saying that Indians team is in the right spot or does he have a legitimate gripe?

From the (limited?) research that I've done, I'm almost prone to back the Projection Report formula 100%...It all comes down to who you individually beat and who you individually lost to...the conglomerated numbers (RPI, SOS, etc) are/can be a bit misleading. I think the Projection Report is the best, most transparent way of picking a field of 64.

Posted by colonels19 on 5/4/2013 12:01:00 AM (view original):From the (limited?) research that I've done, I'm almost prone to back the Projection Report formula 100%...It all comes down to who you individually beat and who you individually lost to...the conglomerated numbers (RPI, SOS, etc) are/can be a bit misleading. I think the Projection Report is the best, most transparent way of picking a field of 64.

I tend to agree. The PR is by far the best method since I've been playing. Much, much too easy to manipulate RPI's to go strictly off of those. Not sure what Seble's formula is exactly (and I hope we never know, otherwise everyone will attempt to manipulate THAT), but I think he's got it pretty damn close to where it should be.

I do agree though that the PR has been accurate and a great prediction for seeding. Just seeing as I beat out 10 teams in RPI/SOS plus the last 10 and record I like to think we deserve better spot. But I didnt go as far to look at wins vs 0-51, 51-100 etc...

I actually think my opening 2 losses to Minnesota and ETSU hurt me the most, more so than my weak CONF schedule. Again thanks for the response! Hopefully we can move up through out the rest of the way!

You've still got enough time to make a move Indians, but playing all those Sims won't make it easy. Probably need to hope for a little help from the other teams, by them dropping some games along the way. Seems as if the new system really (I don't know if this is the right word exactly) penalizes the weaker schedules. Maybe it would be better to say that it doesn't reward them as much as it used to under the old setup, which is probably more realistic anyway.

I would probably plug the numbers into my ranking system if I wasn't too lazy to do so lol...I've done it in the past. I think the last eval I did included 10 teams and it was pretty close to WIS had, that's why I think seble hacked and stole my ranking system...well not really lol.

45-50 or so on the projection report is firmly on the bubble. At that point, it usually plays out on upsets in the conference tournaments and such, like bad teams winning, "eating up" up spot that would normally be taken by a team already in the tournament.