Friday, May 24, 2002

A brief note on Kashmir... while worrying yourself sick about the
likelihood that an ill-timed bullet from some latter-day Gavrilo
Princip will loose the nukes of June, consider the China angle.

It doesn't get a whole lot of mention in the press, even in the
midst of the current controversy, but there are actually
three nuclear powers with territorial claims on Kashmir;
China grabbed a piece of it in 1962, and Pakistan ceded another sliver
of territory the next year.

I'm honestly not sure what the Chinese interest is in all this. On
the one hand, they have been partners
with the Pakistani nuclear program --- it's even rumored that they
gave them the design of for a working warhead. The Chinese also have
plenty of reasons to be annoyed at India, with which they have several
disputed stretches of border; India has also annoyed the Chinese by,
for instance, playing host to the Dalai Lama, a perpetual thorn in
their side. So, the Chinese have plenty of reasons to want to see
India taken down a notch, which may well have been the idea behind aid
to Pakistan.

On the other hand, China can't be thrilled with the
Pakistani-sponsored Muslim separatists in Kashmir, given that
they have a Muslim separatist problem of their own. To have that appear to succeed
would set a precedent that the Chinese would not like to deal with
within their own borders.

On the third hand, it could be that some within China see not one,
but two potential regional rivals in this conflict, and would
not be displeased to see a plague on both their houses, radiation sickness
working as well as anything else. (Which would also be a line to use
against the separatists --- "See? See what this leads to?"). But then, of course, there might be a refugee problem.

So what's really going on? I don't know. I don't pretend to know.
But it's obvious that they're involved, if only by virtue of
common borders and their history of aid to Pakistan --- and they're quiet. Too quiet.