RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

Split Among Kentucky Democrats?

Democrats concerned about a bloody primary fight in the Kentucky Senate race may now extend their concern to the 2011 gubernatorial race. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo is running for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R). State law dictates that in order to start raising money for his re-election campaign, Gov. Steve Beshear had to choose a new running mate, and he did so -- Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson.

Per the Lexington Herald Leader, Mongiardo was allegedly captured on audio complaining about his former running mate's efforts to fundraise for himself when Mongiardo himself needs to collect as many dollars as he can. Beshear has endorsed Mongiardo, but you have to wonder about the level of support after listening to this.

Not A Vote Of Confidence

Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher, facing dismal poll numbers showing him down 15 points or more, doesn't need any more bad news. He certainly doesn't need Kentucky Office of Insurance Executive Director Julie McPeak looking for another job because, according to emails, she thinks his re-election prospects are "bleak." And if those emails ever showed up in the Lexington Herald-Leader, it would really rub salt in the wound.

New KY Gov Poll

A new poll out today shows another big lead for former Lieutenant Gov. Steve Beshear as he races to replace Gov. Ernie Fletcher. The Louisville Courier-Journal's Bluegrass Poll, conducted 9/13-18, surveyed 667 likely voters for a 3.8% margin of error.

Fletcher, beset by a hiring scandal that led him to pardon nine of his own employees, has a job approval rating of just 42%, while 48% disapprove. Only 8% of Kentuckians approve strongly of his job performance. 71% think Fletcher has failed to deliver on his promise to change Frankfort, as well.

Just one of the ten polls taken since the primary, the Courier-Journal notes, has showed Fletcher within 16 points. The Republican Governor's Association is still running ads on Fletcher's behalf, though whether that support will continue, or if the RGA will simply cut their losses, remains to be seen.

Big Lead For Beshear

(Note: Originally published Saturday on the RCP Blog)

A new Research 2000 poll out today shows former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear leading incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher by a wide margin. Fletcher's administration has been marred by controversy, and despite going after Beshear for the Democrat's support for some forms of gambling, he finds himself far behind with just six weeks to go.

The Research 2000 poll, conducted for the Lexington Herald-Leader and Action News 36, was conducted between September 10-13 and surveyed 600 likely voters. MoE +/- 4%.

Kentucky may seem like a conservative state, and it votes reliably Republican in presidential elections. Still, it remains a southern state, and of the 56 governors in its history, 29 have been Democrats, a plurality by far. Just eight Republicans have won election, and Fletcher is the first GOP chief executive since 1971.

Without the support of independent voters and Democrats who grew tired after the scandalous end of Gov. Paul Patton's administration, Fletcher remains unlikel