Stanford football: Grading the Week

We’ll have plenty of opportunities to address the situation in detail over the next two weeks — and so much depends on how many Pac-12 teams jump into the New year’s Eve/Day bowls — but here are my general thoughts:

If Stanford beats UCLA:

The Foster Farms Bowl at Levi’s Stadium would be in play if the Cardinal is over .500 in conference. I could envision the FFB passing on a 6-3 team, or multiple 6-3 teams, in order to select the 5-4 Cardinal — it’s keenly interested in a Bay Area team, and Cal probably won’t be available because of its conference record (if the Bears qualify).

The FFB picks fourth, and there cannot be four teams with conference records at a level (8-1/7-2) that would prevent the bowl from selecting 5-4 Stanford, if it so chooses.

If Stanford loses to UCLA:

How far would it fall? In my opinion, the Cardinal (6-6/4-5) could drop out of the Pac-12 lineup and become a free agent, available to a bowl with a vacancy somewhere far, far away.

It’s important to remember that bowls are extremely wary of teams that have disappointing seasons and (consequentially) apathetic fans, because apathetic fans don’t buy tickets or book hotel rooms.

After four years of Orange-Fiesta-Rose-Rose, and after this hugely unsatisfying season, Stanford fans would be viewed in bowl circles as apathetic … as apathetic as they come.

Only a Pac-12 bowl with no other choice (because of the league’s selection procedure) would extend an invitation to the 6-6/4-5 Cardinal, and it’s entirely possible that every Pac-12 bowl would have a choice.

Shreveport, anybody?

Result: Won at Cal 38-17

Grade: B

Comment: Sure, it was a dominating performance, but it was a dominating performance against an opponent that is 3-6 in league play and hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record.

In other words: Meh.

Stanford’s output makes all the sense in the world when viewed in context with past results against comparable opponents:

The Cardinal scored 38 against Oregon State and 34 against Washington State, and Cal’s defense is worse than both — 38 points in Berkeley seems about right, even without Ty Montgomery.

(The Bears have allowed at least 31 in every league game.)

Yes, it was an impressive, efficient performance. Stanford converted 5 of 10 third downs and scored on every red zone opportunity save the last, when it took a knee.

But it doesn’t mean much, just as the scoring outbursts against the Cougars and Beavers didn’t mean squat when Stanford stepped up in class the following weeks against Arizona State and Oregon/Utah.

*** If the Cardinal offense performed about how I expected, the defense was better that I envisioned – not by much, but by enough.

The Cardinal treated Cal’s offensive line like a high school outfit, consistently generating pressure while only rushing three or four.

Stanford is simply bigger and strong than the Bears, and until that gap closes, the Big Game results will remain as they have been for the past three years.

Time and again, the pocket collapsed around Jared Goff, and Stanford was able to disrupt his rhythm, hit him, knock the ball loose or deflect passes once they left his hand.

But even if Montgomery can’t play Friday, it sounds like he’ll be available for the bowl game.

Next up: at UCLA (Friday)

The matchup: Less favorable by the week.

After a sluggish two months, the Bruins are rolling; they’re playing like the team that was projected to win the South and contend for a playoff berth.

It’s tough to take the Stanford-can’t-win approach, because the Cardinal hasn’t lost since ’08. The Bruins simply haven’t been able to contend with Stanford’s physicality.

That said, UCLA is better than it has been, especially on the lines, and Stanford is obviously not as good as it has been during the six-game series winning streak.

*** I don’t expect the Cardinal to replicate the production it generated against Cal, Oregon State or Washington State – 30 points is a bit much to expect unless there are defensive or special teams touchdowns.

But I also expect Stanford to contain Brett Hundley and the UCLA offense to the point that this is in doubt in the second half, and perhaps deep into the second half.

Only one team has scored 30 on Stanford: Oregon did it, and UCLA is not Oregon, Hundley is not Mariota and Paul Perkins is not Royce Freeman.

The Bruins are favored by 4.5 (expect the line to rise), and that feels about right. UCLA wins 28-24 or 24-20 … something in that range.