King County Metro’s battery-powered electric buses, operating on two routes on the Eastside, connect to an overhead docking device that recharges their batteries in about 10 minutes. (Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)

Originally published October 2, 2017 at 2:26 pm Updated October 2, 2017 at 2:44 pm

Working with other transit agencies, manufacturers and utilities, we are accelerating the transition to a clean-energy future, not only in King County, but across North America

EARLIER this year, King County Executive Dow Constantine ordered 120 new all-electric buses for Metro Transit — the largest such purchase in the nation to date. Metro released a plan to transition to an entirely zero-emission bus fleet — powered by renewable electricity — no later than 2034. And Constantine secured an agreement to help Puget Sound Energy generate more clean wind electricity — meeting nearly all current county needs in PSE service territory with green energy by 2019. Next up is sourcing renewable electricity for the needs of our battery bus fleet as it grows.

A lot more needs to happen to make a successful jump to the next generation of transit powered by clean electricity. As the nation’s fastest-growing transit agency, we challenged the electric-bus manufacturers to develop larger, articulated buses and longer-range buses, and to standardize charging stations.

Last week, we brought together transit agencies from across the nation and Canada along with utilities, regulators and other partners to meet these shared goals and chart a path to transit electrification.

There is much good news to share. The electric-bus industry is growing, making impressive technical strides.

If you want to ride the future today, we have battery buses operating on Routes 226 and 241 on the Eastside, serving some of the region’s densest job centers including Microsoft and downtown Bellevue. With a range of 25 miles, these buses are quiet, clean and need only a 10 minute charge before returning to service.

Metro Transit battery buses operate on two routes on the Eastside. (King County photo by Ned Ahrens)

We are continuing to test new models. By the middle of next year, riders in South King County will ride on six battery buses from three different manufacturers, all with an extended range of 140 miles. In addition, we will roll out four 60-foot articulated buses from two manufacturers. We’ve chosen South King County as a focus area for the first big wave of battery-bus deployment because we know these communities face disproportionate air pollution and health impacts, and so we want to bring the benefits of zero emissions buses there first.

Metro Transit battery buses operate on two routes on the Eastside. (King County photo by Ned Ahrens)

While battery technology continues to evolve — a bus on a test track recently drove more than a thousand miles on a single charge — standardization of charging systems remains elusive. We can’t be saddled with multiple, incompatible charging systems, so we’re continuing to insist on a universal system that works with all battery bus types.

We are also working with our local utilities to plan charging infrastructure and make sure we have reliable backup for Metro and Sound Transit bases in case of a power outage. We need confidence that we’ll be able to provide essential transportation services, no matter what.

The American automaker announced yesterday that it's transitioning to a "zero emissions future," starting with the launch of two new all-electric vehicles in the next 18 months. These vehicles, based off of lessons learned from the Chevrolet Bolt EV, will be the first of at least 20 new all-electric vehicles GM will launch by 2023.

In this case, "all-electric" refers to more than plug-in cars. Due to customers' various needs, hitting new targets will require a two-pronged approach to electrification that includes both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, according to GM.

GM plans to begin producing fuel cell vehicles in 2020 at its Brownstown Battery Assembly plant south of Detroit, Autoweek reports. New plug-in vehicles models will feature an "all-new battery system" that GM featured briefly on Monday at its Technical Center in Warren, Michigan. The presentation came a day before Ford's new CEO Jim Hackett was scheduled to deliver a strategic update.

For GM, the shift to all-electric vehicles is part of broader vision of a world with "zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion" -- a vision CEO Mary Barra outlined earlier this month in Shanghai.

That vision seems to be aimed specifically at the Chinese market, where policymakers are considering a ban on combustion engine vehicles. GM will roll out at least 10 "new energy vehicles" in China by 2020, Barra said. And by 2025, nearly all models from GM’s global brands in China -- Buick, Cadillac and Chevrolet -- will offer electrification technology. To accommodate that growth, the SAIC-GM joint venture will open a new battery assembly plant in Shanghai this year.

In yesterday's announcement, GM did not explicitly say if or when it plans to cease production of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. Nonetheless, the leading global automaker's enhanced commitment to vehicle electrification is significant, given GM's size and reach.

Last year, GM sold 10 million vehicles of all vehicle sizes and fuel types worldwide. Converting just a fraction of those sales to electric cars would grow the EV market exponentially. All automakers collectively sold just under 550,000 EVs worldwide in 2016, according to Inside EVs.

GM already sells several electric cars, including the plug-in hybrid Volt and all-electric Bolt. In the U.S., sales of the Bolt, which boasts a 230-mile range, have been growing steadily as availability has increased. But despite being an early innovator in vehicle electrification, GM was cautious this week in describing how it would transition to a fully-electric fleet.

“General Motors believes in an all-electric future,” said Mark Reuss, executive vice president of GM's product development, purchasing and supply chain, in a statement. “Although that future won't happen overnight, GM is committed to driving increased usage and acceptance of electric vehicles through no-compromise solutions that meet our customers' needs.”

Several other automakers have announced they're going big on electric vehicles, perhaps most notably Volvo. When the company said every Volvo launched from 2019 would have an electric motor, it was reported as though the automaker was swearing off of fossil fuels. But the reality is a little more nuanced.

Volvo specifically committed to launching five fully electric cars between 2019 and 2021, along with 48 gas and diesel plug-in hybrid and mild hybrid models. So while this represents a one of the broadest electrified car offerings of any car maker, conventional fossil fuel engines will still be part of Volvo's product strategy for many years to come.

Policies will remain one of the primary drivers of electrification. China, India, France, the United Kingdom are all are considering plans to limit or ban gas- and diesel-powered vehicles between 2030 and 2040. California is also on that list, although the U.S. is lagging on sustainable transportation policy at the national level.

The Trump Administration is currently conducting a mid-term review of Obama-era fuel economy standards and is expected to try and weaken them. But even if regulations loosen at home, GM -- which now sells more cars in China than the U.S. -- can't escape the policy forces pushing the company toward EVs.

“China is their biggest market,” said Michelle Krebs, analyst at Autotrader, told the Los Angeles Times. “If China decides to go electric, they have to do it.”

If you want to jump straight to the news, scroll down to the picture of the new ABB superfast charging station and start reading from there.

Two years ago in Florida, I gave a presentation at the EV Transportation & Technology Summit titled “EV R&D and the Future.” It was based on our first big EV driver report. Of all the interesting findings from the report, the one that stood out the most and led the title of my CleanTechnica article about the presentation was that access to Tesla’s Supercharging network or a comparable superfast charging network was a requirement for many EV drivers and potential EV drivers. For many others, superfast charging was not a requirement but very important and could lead to the respondents choosing one electric car over another. (See slides 40–43 in the slideshow in this article for more details and graphics.)

The problem: There wasn’t a single non-Tesla superfast charging station out there.

This topic was hardly discussed or researched at that time. I figured large automakers and charging networks must have some kind of understanding of this point, though, and must be doing some level of planning. Unfortunately, there was little signal that was the case. Still, I hoped for some announcements of large-scale superfast charging work that had been conducted behind the scenes. Instead, for a long time, I got to enjoy the sound of crickets … and just further appreciate that Tesla has sped up development of its network and now built nearly 1,000 Supercharging stations with a combined total of 6,550 superfast charging ports.

In the past year or so, we have seen some progress and I’ve been more enthusiastic than is probably warranted each step of the way. In November 2016, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen Group, & Ford signed a superfast charging MoU in Europe (for up to 350 kW charging). Every chance I get, I ask charging and automaker execs what they’ve heard about the progress of this network — I haven’t heard many inspiring comments in response, unfortunately, but there is a working group led by Porsche that is doing something at some pace or another. In July 2017, Porsche also installed what is presumably the first superfast charging station in that network at its new headquarters in Berlin. An electric car can’t charge there yet, but it should become operational sometime this year.

On the left side of the Atlantic, EVgo (which hosts the largest non-Tesla EV fast charging network in the USA) broke ground on the first superfast (aka high-power) EV charging station in December 2016. Practically in tandem, in January 2017, competitor ChargePoint (the largest overall EV charging network in the USA) unveiled a charging station that was modular and could support power output of up to 400 kW. Again, these were great signs of progress that indicated to us the superfast EV charging revolution wouldn’t trail too far behind long-range electric cars from non-Tesla automakers (“Big Auto”). Nonetheless, we’ve been listening to a lot of crickets since those announcements.

Now, before I take one step further, let’s look at one highly important point: the vast majority of an EV driver’s charging is often done at home or work. If an EV driver has charging options both places, they typically do 97–98% of their charging in one of those spots (which, of course, is where their cars sit the vast majority of the time). Superfast charging isn’t critical because charging stations need to replace gas stations — they don’t! One of the supreme benefits of electric car life is that easy charging at home, work, your local coffee shop, the grocery store, Blockbuster, your local Kodak film processing center, and other common destinations means you seldom have to think about going somewhere specifically to charge your car.

That said, if you want to take a long-distance trip or you don’t have home or workplace charging, superfast charging is more or less mandatory. EV life is only for the most enthusiastic drivers otherwise. This came to mind again yesterday, when someone in the neighborhood saw our Tesla charging and sat down to enthusiastically chat about it for 20 minutes or so. He seemed intent on getting the Model 3, but was still a bit concerned about charging on long-distance trips. I tried to explain how easy Supercharging is and that it shouldn’t be an issue, but he still seemed unsure if it would be manageable for him. I didn’t want to come across as a Tesla fanatic (and don’t think I am one), but when you look at the practicalities of EV life in a fairly mainstream household, this basic factor (long-distance charging) obviously makes discussion of all other fully electric cars a nonstarter. It’s Tesla or gas/petrol/diesel for many mainstream consumers … because how could they drive to Italy or Disney World with a Nissan LEAF, Renault Zoe, Chevy Bolt, or other fully electric offering. (Yes, I know — plug-in hybrids still have a big role to play!)

That may soon change, and ABB — one of the world’s leading EV charging station producers — would certainly like to be at the forefront of that shift.

In an email just sent my way, ABB has announced that it is about to launch its first 150–350 kW high-power charger, the new Terra HP High Power Charge system. You can’t touch the Terra HP in an IKEA parking lot yet, but you can check out the breakthrough charging product at EVS30 in Stuttgart, Germany. The dates for that event are October 9–11.

“Ideally suited for use at highway rest stops and petrol stations, Terra HP’s ultra-high current has the capacity to charge both 400 V and 800 V cars at full power,” ABB writes.

“The 375 A output single power cabinet can charge a 400 V car at full 150 kW continuously. The addition of Dynamic DC power sharing technology, allows a two-power cabinet charging system to charge a couple of EVs simultaneously, with up to 350 kW and 500 A, while dynamically optimizing the available grid connection and the power delivery to the two vehicles.”

ABB has been one of the world’s top providers of EV fast charging stations, so we’ve long expected that it would be one of the first companies to put a superfast charging station on the market. We have no sense from the press release or email how many orders ABB may have on the books for this product, but I’ll reach out about that and other matters today. However, the company did note that it has sold over 6,000 fast chargers around the world to date. Imagine if it sells that many Terra HP superfast chargers in the coming few years.

Here are more details on the new Terra HP offering from ABB:

Additional power cabinets and charge posts can be added after installation, delivering a cost-effective and future-proof solution for expandable charge points that can grow as the EV base grows.

To further improve performance, Terra HP delivers the highest uptime due to redundancy on power and communication, and individually cooled charging cables. Having proven its paces in numerous commercial electric bus field installations, the power cabinet is also extremely reliable.

After years of build up, September marks the start of “something big” for plug-in vehicle sales in the US. And sure, this past month also marks a full 2 years/24 months* worth of consecutive gains (an impressive accomplishment for sure), but we haven’t seen anything yet.

Although September’s sales numbers are still rolling in (we publish and update this report live…so if you are seeing this note, the results are still being collected), we can fairly confidently say that more than 20,000 plug-in vehicles were sold during the month – a new 2017 high, and just the 2nd time to cross that plateau (Dec 2016 – 24,785).

Surprising…well, no one, the Tesla Model S took its normal position as the US sales leader for the last month of the quarter

Once again, strong results were put up by the familiar faces, as Tesla once again did its ‘end of the quarter’ US delivery explosion (after virtually taking July and August off) leading the gains, while at the same time cementing the Model S as the 2017 sales champion, selling an estimated near 5,000 copies in September – a 2017 high.

Unfortunately, while Tesla notched record Q3 sales overall ( full details), production of the new Model 3 didn’t go so well, with the company only managing to build 260 copies (about 1,400 light of Q3 guidance), and deliver 220.

Previously in August an estimated ~16,624 overall plug-in sales were made ( details).

Taking the “Tesla surge” out of the picture, the Chevrolet Bolt EV outshone all others, logging more than 2,600 sales, a new all-time high for the model; unfortunately the bright light on the Bolt cast a shadow on GM’s Volt, as the 53 mile extended range EV failed to meet year-over-year numbers for the 4th month in a row.

After 9 months, more than 140,000 plug-ins have been sold, and the 200,000 mark will easily fall before the year closes as we still anticipate big numbers for the Tesla Model 3 in the last month or two of the year, as well as much deeper inventory for the Toyota Prius Prime…and maybe even a handful of new, longer range 2018 Nissan LEAF sales.

Questions entering September (with answers in brackets as they come in):

Can the Chevrolet Volt, seemingly under sales pressure from stablemate Bolt EV, snap a 5 month sales losing skid? (No, and once again – it wasn’t close)

The Chevy Bolt EV is on a 6 month sales growth streak, can GM make it 7 in a row in September as the car finds itself in more states (more deeply) this month? (Big time yes)

Will this be the month that the Toyota Prius Prime shakes its inventory woes in the US and breaks the “2k barrier” for the first time? (Close, but no cigar)

The next generation Nissan LEAF debuted at a special event earlier in September (details/watch here). Will the news the updated/long ranger LEAF hitting the ears of mainstream buyers slow current generation sales, and stop the (somewhat inexplicable) streak of 7 consecutive months of sales in the 4 digit range? (Surprisingly, it did not)

In the continuing battle of “new 2018 offerings that aren’t stocked so well”, who will manage to sell more – the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Cadillac CT6 Plug-In Hybrid, Honda Clarity Electric, Volvo SC60 PHEV or the new Mini Countryman Plug-In?

Also of note: Toyota sold 184 Mirais, good for 1,044 in 2017 (vs 710 a year ago)

Editor’s Note: This report is filed in real-time as the data starts to roll in on Tuesday, October 3rd in the AM around 9 AM. However, it takes us a good 24 hours to run down ALL the numbers,…so if you don’t see your favorite EV’s sales listed yet – check back again soon!

Last update: Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 11:11 AM

*On year of monthly sales improvements: We know someone is going to look at the chart and say, “hey, only ~11,467 sales were made in May of 2016, when 11,540 were logged in 2015! What gives InsideEVs?” What gives is – through an odd scheduling quirk, only 24 selling days were reported in May 2016 (versus 26 in 2015) Below Chart: A individual run-down of each vehicle’s monthly result and some analysis behind the numbers. (Previous year’s monthly results can be found on our fixed Scorecard page here)

Individual Plug-In Model Sales Recap For Major Models: (limited to vehicles with ~500 sales/or potential for 500 sales in a given month)

Next Generation, 2017 Chevrolet Volt

Chevrolet Volt:

When the Chevrolet Bolt EV first arrived on the scene, many wondered if its electrified cousin, the original GM plug-in Chevy Volt would be affected adversely.

The early returns were in the negative, as the Volt continued to sell decently enough, perhaps the two would augment each other?

However, as the Summer as arrived, and the Bolt inventory deepened and stretched out over the country, it appears that assumption was incorrect.

For the fourth consecutive month, Volt year-over-year sales have fallen, as 1,453 cars were sold in Speteeber, off 28.5% from the 2,031 sold a year ago.

Which trend will ultimately prove correct? Only time will tell.

With the slightly lower than expected sales, inventory levels of the Volt have also come down somewhat. After cresting ~6,000 units as Summer began, the plug-in Chevy has settled at a more reasonable ~5,000 unit level heading into the Fall.

The 2018 MY Volt (now at dealers) is mostly unchanged from the 2017 edition ( details).

Chevrolet Bolt EV – looking to make its mark in 2017

Chevrolet Bolt EV:

The Chevrolet Bolt EV was finally available nationwide in August (well, technically anyway – many states still have little-to-no inventory).

And after selling 2,107 copies in August, the all-electric Chevy set the bar even higher in September, selling a record 2,632 cars in September!

September’s result put the Bolt EV within striking distance (1,046 units) of its stablemate Chevy Volt on the 2017 sales leaderboard – a result which now seems inevitable.

Also to note, the 238 mile EV has seen increasing sales month-over-month for the past 7 months.

Thanks to stronger sales, and an extended shutdown this Summer of the Bolt EV’s production facility in Orion, Michigan (mostly due to plummeting Sonic sales), inventory of the Bolt has leveled off/decreased somewhat at 5,000 units in August and actually dropped by a few hundred units in September, which is a little odd as the 238 mile EV is expected to be a hot seller into the 2017 year-end.

With national distribution widening more evenly over the next few months (and the end of the 2017 tax season – for claiming the $7,500 EV fed credit), we expect to ultimately see the Bolt EV hit the ~3,000 level before the year’s end.

2018 Nissan LEAF gets a new look, more range!

Nissan LEAF:

The Nissan LEAF entered September as the oldest offering on the US market – going on 82 months now.

And as everyone knows by now, it will be replaced in about 3 months time, as the updated 2018 Nissan LEAF debuted earlier this month (full details here).

Is the new LEAF better? Yes, in every way…including ~43 more miles range (up to 150 miles from 107) for $700 less. Not enough? A ~225 mile, higher performance trim level arrives later in 2018 (as a 2019 MY car).

Despite the buying public long knowing the new (and better) LEAF was coming (we had been pounding the table that both a 40 kWh and a 60 kWh offering was to arrive going on two years), the ‘old LEAF’ has continued to sell well, thanks primarily to deep discounting. In fact, LEAF sales had notched year-over-year gains in all 8 months of 2017.

However, that is all over now, as the 2017 MY production taps are shutdown, and Nissan has near-perfectly managed inventory levels; moving from 2,000 units on average in stock in July, to 1,300 in August, to just over 600 units in September.

For last month Nissan did still manage to keep one streak active, as the company crossed into “4 digit land” for the 8th consecutive month with 1,055 deliveries, an impressive result (all things considered).

For the year (through August), 10,740 LEAFs have been sold, a gain of 16% over 2016 when 9,238 were moved over the same time in 2016.

Production of the new LEAF is underway now, with the first few copies of the 2018 LEAF reported to arrive in the US regionally in late December, with the first wave of depth arriving in January.

After setting a new high of 1,618 sales in March, Prius Prime sales has defied very low inventory levels for almost the whole year – selling a peak 1,908 in May!

Unfortunately, the Summer brought ‘really low’ inventory from Japan and sales dropped into the 1,600 range. However that situation started to change in August, as dealer stock moved from under a 1,000 units to more than 2,000 exiting September.

The result was that 1,899 Prius Primes were moved in September – a whisker off the 2017 high, and based on this deeper inventory that seems to be arriving now, we look for the Prius Prime to note year-highs throughout the Fall/Q4 selling season.

The Toyota not only features its own unique look, but 25 miles of all-electric range.

When will enough inventory arrive to fill the demand void? It’s still hard to say – for sure ~2,000 units is not near enough, but perhaps by year’s end – after the 2018 model year production is well underway in Japan this Fall.

Why the high acceptance? The plug-in Toyota is priced right – from $27,950, which after the $4,500 federal credit is applied gives the Prime an effective price of $23,450, a price-point that is actually more than $1,000 cheaper than the base hybrid version…which should eventually translate into very strong sales once the EV is well stocked, as the standard version of the car can sell upwards of 10,000 units in a month.

BMW i3

BMW i3: NO DATA TO REPORT YET

The BMW i3 entered the US market with a bang in 2014, but it is too bad that the initial fireworks display of sales back then was the peak – we just didn’t know it at the time.

For 2017, things started rough, with just 182 sales logged in January, and 318 in February. The tune changed drastically in March (which given the i3’s track record is not all that surprising), with 703 sales made, a 118% gain over March of 201 – but that the lone bright spot. Since then sales have languished in the ~500 range.

For August specifically, sales continued to be depressed, with 504 deliveries during the month – half of the amount moved a year ago (1,013).

For the year, 4,097 i3s have been sold, off 23% from last year when 5,377 had been sold through the first 8 months.

Quite frankly, the i3 as it stands today is likely too expensive for plug-in vehicle buyers, so if BMW wants to sell the EV in volumes like it did in the past, it is going to have to sharpen its pencil…and by a lot.

In late August, BMW underlined they still really didn’t understand the issue behind lackluster sales or the i3 itself, byreleasing a new, slightly sportier trim level – the i3s (full details here). The car gets some new styling details, some wider tires and some extra performance (+10 kW), but what the public really wants is a price cut (the new i3s is ~10% more in most markets), and a longer range option.

For 2016 overall, BMW sold 7,625 i3s in 2016, compared to 11,024 a year ago – also off 31% from 2015.

To come to an estimated monthly, number, we don’t simply take the quarterly estimate given by Tesla and divide it by 3and hope it all works out…it just doesn’t work like that in the real world. We simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, the first hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself when available – and the number is what it is (see below)

Revisions/disclaimer to accuracy of prior estimates: The 2016 Model S chart has been adjusted (via US Q3 data leaked directly from Tesla) by 469 units in Q3, and 525 units in Q4. The 2015 chart was adjusted (one time) by 498 units to compensate for confirmed full year numbers. The 2014 sales chart was adjusted (one time – again after the end of the full year of estimates) 611 units to compensate for full year numbers. While past success is no guarantee of future results, InsideEVs is quite proud of its sales tracking for the Model S over the years.

That being said, we only estimate this number because Tesla does not, and to not put a number on Model S sales would be to paint an even more inaccurate overall picture of EV sales. Despite our fairly accurate track record, we are not analysts, portfolio managers and we do not own any positions in Tesla the company.

Over the past two month, we noted the almost complete lack of focus on domestic Model production by Tesla, which truthfully isn’t all that uncommon, but this quarter had been especially dry after July and August, as Tesla seemed to be focused on selling down older/discontinued models and blowing out built inventory.

By late August however, we noted that all that had changed, and the Fremont production facility was churning out record numbers of Model S sedans, almost all headed to US customers…and that didn’t stop in September.

We estimate thata 2017 high 4,860 copies were sold.

Further to those numbers, with the first real US production volume in months, we got our first real look at the model trim level distribution with just the 75 kWh and 100 kWh batteries being offered.

With Tesla “anti-selling” the Model 3, and promoting a Model S purchase ‘you can get today’ over the less expensive new model, sales of the entry level 75 kWh car well outpaced the 100 kWh offering. From the data we could collect, the 75 kWh Model S outsold the 100 kWh version by a rate of more than 5-to-1 in September.

Is this the new norm with US customer? Or just an obscure one-off given the high level of attention given to the Model 3’s arrival (in very limited/controlled numbers) in late July, and the realization of some of the ~450,000+ reservists that there is still a long wait ahead? We tend to believe the latter, and expect the balance to equalize some in the coming months.

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X: Like the Model S, Tesla does not itself report Model X sales, so we do our best – with all the data at our disposal to estimate monthly results for North America as best we can (For more info on that, check out our disclaimer for the Model S)

Historical accuracy/Sales Update (Oct 11th):

Tesla recently leaked US sales data for Q3 2016 put US deliveries at 5,428. Our own Q3 estimate was 5,800 for North America, which includes Canada (which ended Q3 with 389 registrations for the quarter), meaning 5,787 were actually sold – and not to brag…but that means we were only off by 13 units in Q3.

Previously in Q2 2016, Tesla reported 4,625 Model X deliveries…our estimated scorecard got within about ~55 units of the actual number (accounting for just a handful of international Model X deliveries). In Q1 we where within ~200 units.

As with the Tesla Model S, we noted very little customer orders for the Model X were actually delivered during July and August.

What we did see was a fair shake of discounted inventory and demo SUVs finding new homes in the US, and trend which continued somewhat in September, as Model X custom-built orders appeared to get off to a bit slower start to end the quarter than the S.

While the Model S production and delivery for the US went into hyper-drive by late August, the Model X appeared to diverge somewhat from the sedan in September – after a year of posting very similar results.

However to be fair, the Model S was squarely in focus late in Q3, as we suspect a fair number of the ~450,000+ reservists for the Model 3 considered a S purchase, once they received their personalized “estimated delivery” dates for the less expensive Tesla – some of which indicated over a year’s worth of wait for certain trims and regions.

With that said, we still estimate a very robust 3,120 Model X utility vehicles were delivered, a 2017 high.

This is the first Tesla Model 3 (#001), naturally it arrived in black – lord of all colors. Want to buy it any other way? $1,000 premium fine for bad taste.

Tesla Model 3: It has arrived!

Just ~16 months after orders opened, and ~10 years since it was first announced (then known as the “Bluestar”), the first Model 3s were delivered on July 28th, 2017! One can check out the full delivery ceremony, and all the newly released specs (220-310 miles range, 0-60 mph in 5.1-5.6 seconds) on our full recap here.

As with Model S & X sales, Tesla is not planning to release monthly Model 3 sales in the US at this point time. Until then we do our best – with all the data at our disposal to estimate monthly results for North America as best we can (For more info on that, check out our disclaimer for the Model S).

Thankfully, in these early days (Q3 2017), pegging Model 3 sales in the US is a pretty easy task, as the complete delivery volume for July took place live at the July 28th delivery event in Fremont, California, as the first 30 cars were delivered to Tesla employees/stakeholders in the US, and one could almost count the individual cars as they left Tesla’s Fremont factory in August.

Unfortunately, these early Model 3s are a virtual captured fleet as deliveries are only going to the Musk “family of company” employees and ‘friends’ of Tesla. And as part of the deal, no external, mass-media has been granted extended access to the car as of yet.

As for deliveries and production of the Model 3 in Q3 we had this directive from Musk to go by from July:

“Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3’s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.”

Again, no sleuthing is necessary on our part to get September’s results, as the company discloses overall sales numbers at the end of each quarter. With all the Model 3 sales going to the US, and knowing that just over ~105 cars were delivered in July and August…it is simple math.

Unfortunately, Tesla whiffed on its production estimates for the Model 3 in Q3 (details), and managed to build just 260 copies, selling 220 over the three months. Meaning that ~115 deliveries were made during September – a disappointing result for sure.

The company said it was aware of the issue and it was not going to impede its progress with the Model 3.

“Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks. Although the vast majority of manufacturing subsystems at both our California car plant and our Nevada Gigafactory are able to operate at high rate, a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.

It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.”

Chrysler Pacific Plug-In Hybrid

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid:

The much anticipated plug-in extended range passenger van arrived in January, albeit in stealth, stuttered… and very limited in fashion.

Due to some odd quirks with production timing and plant scheduling we have had a on/off/on/off/quasi-on start for the Pacifica Hybrid as it relates to deliveries. Then there was QC holds, then launch delays. Finally, the Pacifica Hybrid officially arrived on “Earth Day” April 22nd, 2017, and customers enjoyed a good 3-4 weeks of arriving inventory…until the wheels fell off (not literally).

By June 10th a nationwide recall was announced, and all 1,677 Pacificas sold in the US and Canada had to head back to Chrysler to get a faulty diode replaced that could cause lost of power when in operation. We won’t get into all the details from there (check out our June sales report for more info).

Thankfully by mid-August, salable vans began to re-appear at on Chrysler dealer lots – at least of the 2017 MY variety, and deliveries were back underway.

With that said, inventory has yet to get “super deep” and sales are still very much constrained, as model year 2018 production, despite having first gotten underway a couple months ago, have been held in a QC hold for the recalls repairs to be implemented (or waiting on 2017s to get sold first perhaps), leaving only the ‘fixed’ 2017 Pacifica Hybrids to make up the bulk of September’s sales.

For September, we estimate that 475 Pacifica Hybrids were delivered – all of them 2017 editions.

We should note that those 2018 Pacifica Hybrids were given the ‘green light’ on September 25th, so we expect to see today’s inventory level of about ~400 vans explode late in October, along with much higher sales to end out the year.

Also to note, Chrysler’s Windsor plant, where the Pacifica Hybrid is built, is undergoing a 4 week shutdown for Grand Caravan/US regulatory tooling issues that began on October 2nd (through October 30th) – it remains to be seen how this will effect dealer inventory later in Q4, but new customer orders this month will likely take a solid ~8 weeks to get delivered.

2017 BMW 330e – Like All Plug-Ins Sold In The US, It Wisely Is Offered In Black

BMW 330e: NO DATA TO REPORT YET

Arriving on the US market about a year ago was the BMW 330e, which is theplug-in hybrid version of the company’s high selling 3 series offering.

And while the 330e (from $44,695 including DST), physically arrived in April 2016 in a token amount, and it took BMW 9 months to begin to stock the vehicle even marginally. A process which has finally started to take hold in mid-2017.

By May 2017 some decent inventory arrived, and sales followed, as the 330 sold 475, then 499 in June.

Unfortunately, the 330e fell back in July and August, but not by a lot, as 387 and 409 copies respectively were sold – good enough to keep it moving up the sales charts into 12th, passing the VW e-Golf in July and the Audi A3 e-tron in August.

On the inventory side, the 330e peaked at around 750 cars in July, before falling back to almost 400 units – thankfully the 2018s are arriving now, and inventory is back about 700 unites heading into October -hopefully on their way much, much higher – because BMW could certainly show even better results with this offering.

As for the specs, the final EPA ‘real world’ range rating of just 14 all-electric miles (via a 7.6 Kwh battery – 5.7 usable) was a disappointment for some hoping for a number closer to 20, but with a 75 mph top speed in “Max eDrive”, it is a capable offering (featuring a 2 liter turbo inline 4) and should satisfy the traditional BMW crowd and be a strong seller.

The electric motor develops 87 hp with maximum peak torque of 184 lb-ft, when combined with the petrol engine, the total output jumps to 248 hp, with a peak torque of 310 lb-ft, allowing a sprint from 0 to 60 mph in 5.9 seconds and a top speed of 140 mph.

Audi A3 Sportback e-tron

Audi A3 Sportback e-tron: NO DATA TO REPORT YET

After selling between about ~400 copies a month in Q1 (387, 400 and 414), Audi slipped in Q2, and now into Q3.

For May Audi moved 294 A3 e-trons, before increasing to 324 copies in June.

Unfortunately, that May-to-June gain was pulled back in July and August, as just 218 and 129 plug-in Audis were sold (respectively). For September, just 85 were moved – the worst result for the car since in was introduced in 2015.

To be fair, all of this drop can be attributed to some poor planning/thin end of year inventory of the Sportback; currently only about 50-odd 2017s are left in stock. Hey Audi, make with the 2018s already!

In 2016, 4,280 copies were sold…a not insignificant contribution to the US plug-in vehicle sales scene. That said, Audi is still certainly not in the “big boys” category for EV sales, but also is definitely not in the “also rans” either.

Quirky fact not really related to EV sales, but certainly aided with the arrival of the A3 e-tron, the Audi brand has now set 79 consecutive months of record year-over-year sales in the US.

The A3 e-tron has a low price inside Audi’s lineup. $38,900 gets you the Audi badge, 8.8 kWh of battery – good for 17-odd miles of real world driving…and federal credit of $4,158, which is significant because this brings the e-tron package down to within $3,500 of the base MSRP of the A3.

Also a reason for decent sales numbers on the A3 e-tron…you can’t get the “sportback” version of the Audi in any other trim level in the US. Check out our own early/pre-delivery review on the Audi A3 e-tron here.

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford Fusion Energi: NO DATA TO REPORT YET. Ford will not be reporting electrified numbers until Wednesday (Oct 4th) around noon – so why not come back and check out the results then?

Heading into 2017, the Fusion Energi crossed back into “4 digit land” in March, as 1,002 Energis were moved in March…joining a club of just 5 other at that level. A level which the company returned to in May…but could not maintain, as just 707 copies were sold in June, and an near equal amount in July and August at 703 and 762 deliveries respectively.

Looking at the inventory in the past, it was easy to see why (and how) so many of the new Fusion plug-ins were sold; the Fusion Energi often won the crown for the “most stocked” EV in the US … before Chevy got crazy with the Volt and Bolt EV.

With that said, Ford had been struggling to keep production on pace with demand (or they are managing inventory lower)…after having almost 3,000 in stock in mid-June, by the start of September that number fallen below 2,00 units, as the industry-wide Summer shutdown/changeover to MY 2018 was underway.

Thankfully, the 2018s began to arrive late in August, and inventory has started to deepen (around 700 2018s were in stock starting October – and growing), so we hope for higher/better results soon.

Volkswagen e-Golf

Volkswagen e-Golf:

Congratulations Volkswagen, you win our “jackass of the year” award…and 2017 isn’t close to be over yet.

After a rocky start with continued dieselgate fallout, the longer range 2017 e-Golf was promised to the US after production started in Germany in late 2016.

Well, guess what? For the next nine months all VW did have the “old & busted” 2016s clogging up dealer lots – refusing to clear them out to make way for the new hotness.

Finally the 2016s are gone, and like a magical unicorn, the new/longer range 2017 edition has appeared! And yes, you heard that right, VW was so slow with the upgraded model that they are just now introducing a “2017” model as everyone else has switched to the 2018s.

Despite the lack of these 2017 e -Golfs for the bulk of the year, the older model sold decently enough (relatively speaking to historical sales), moving about ~300 copies a month on average this year until this past month.

With the 2016s exhausted, and only just over 100 copies of the “new” 2017s on hand, VW moved 187 e-Golfs in Septemeber – a 2017 low.

—

The 2017 plug-in VW will now feature a 35.8 kWh battery, increasing range to ~124 miles and debuted at the LA Auto Show in November ( details – launch gallery/video).

Ford C-Max Energi

Ford C-Max Energi: NO DATA TO REPORT YET. Ford will not be reporting electrified numbers until Wednesday (Oct 4th) around noon – so why not come back and check out the results then?

If it wasn’t for the impressive results of the Ford Fusion Energi every month, we probably would look at C-Max Energi results a lot differently. And in June AND July…we finally did.

Last year…for just one month, the plug-in C-Max manged to step out of the Fusion’s shadow for the first time, and sold an all-time best 1,289 copies – 17% more than the Fusion Energi.

But in June and July, that trick was repeated back-to-back, as the C-Max Energi sold an impressive 936 copies, 33% more than the Fusion Energi (707) in June, then again 844 to 703 in July (+20%).

For August the smaller Ford plug-in couldn’t make it three in a row, but it was still close, as the C-Max plug-in moved 705 copies (just 57 behind the Fusion).

When it comes to reporting plug-in sales, we have another Tesla on our hands here (as inthey don’t report sales).

Chrysler/Fiat has been giving us a bit of the stonewall treatment when it comes to reporting 500e sales.

UPDATE: After initially have some issues getting data on the plug-in Fiat, more registration and rebate data is now available. That being said, the number is estimated. Historically, the average margin of error per month has been about ~40 units in those moments when some confirmed data leaks out (usually from a recall). For 2016, the yearly estimated total was adjusted upwards (once) by approximately 500 units over the full 12 months.

For most of 2016, the Fiat 500e was a consistently solid performer, but 2017 results have really result move even higher (amazing what ~$100 lease deals can do!)

It is interesting to note that sales this year peaked in January (of all months) at an estimated ~752 sales, but the sales have stayed strong for most of the year.

And by most of the year, we mean up until Summer, as for some reason the 500e seems to sell less in the Summer – we aren;t quite sure why, but it might have something to do with FCA’s production timing, which seems to always ‘short the distance’ it needs to bridge the gap between the previous model year and the next. Currently, about 300 2017s are in stock in California and Oregon, a year-low according to our calculations.

For September we estimate that 375 500es were sold.

x5 xDrive40e

BMW X5 xDrive40e: NO DATA TO REPORT YET

The BMW X5 plug-in had an unexpectedly strong debut in the US in 2016…and only get stronger over the year.

In fact the electrified BMW SUV has seen sales as high as 876 units in 2016 (August 2016).

However, 2017 has been a bit of a disappointment for the X5 plug-in, as inventories have stayed frustratingly low (insert this complaint for almost all BMW plug-ins found in America), and sales are sure to show a year-over-year loss at this point…barring a Christmas miracle.

Throughout August, inventory of the popular plug-in BMW continued to fall, as no 2018s arrived to pick up the slack for out of stock 2017s – resulting in just 317 deliveries.

And while inventory is still oppressively low (sub 300 units), we are happy to be able to report that 2018s are now arriving late in the month, representing about half the current stock. Hopefully enough plug-in SUVs will arrive that BMW can once again make a push to try and break into the 4-digit mark!

Before jumping into the broader Norway electric car story from Steve Hanley below, there are some amazing highlights out of Oslo that helpful CleanTechnica reader Are Hansen pointed out to us:

40% of new cars registered in Oslo in September were fully electric cars.

20% of new cars registered in Oslo in September were plug-in hybrids.

7.5% of cars living in Oslo are now electric (~22,500). The total number of electric cars in the city is projected to nearly double by 2020, “expected to rise to 40,000 by 2020, as the toll road entry fee for petrol and diesel cars increases (to around $5.5),” Are reports.

Investments in EV charging infrastructure in the city continue to grow, with plans in the new budget to build 600 new charging stations in the city’s borders. “This means that during next year Oslo will have a total of 1500 slow and free charging points (mostly curbside charging poles) and 524 «semi fast chargers» (guess that means 22kW).”

Ahead of the curve, Oslo is not forgetting about those living without a garage or at least private parking space where they can charge. “Included in the budget is NOK 20 million to support charging points in housing cooperatives/condos.” (That’s approximately $2.5 million.)

“Buses on the west side motorway into Oslo have had problems being stuck in congestion. From tomorrow, a new HOV lane is opened on the stretch from Lysaker to Sandvika. The goal of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration is to reduce private car traffic by 25% to reduce pollution. During afternoon rush hours (from 2 til 6 p.m.) EVs only have access to the HOV lane if carrying at least two people, the rest of the time unlimited access.”

Read on for the remainder of the news around Norway’s fast-growing EV sales, courtesy Steve Hanley. —Zach

This story about electric car sales in Norway was first published by Gas2.

Norway may have the most aggressive collection of electric car incentives of any country. Not only are electric cars and plug-in hybrids exempt from most taxes at the time of purchase, but they also qualify for reduced tolls on the nation’s highways, lower fares or no cost at all on its many ferries, and free parking in most cities. Charging infrastructure is also quite robust. Although there is always room for improvement, there are more public chargers available for EV drivers than in most other European nations.

The combination works. Last month, 13,484 new passenger cars were registered in Norway, and 29% of them were electric cars. The numbers by manufacturer break down like this:

Sales of the Model S (1,007) were up more than 300% from the same month last year. Model X deliveries totaled 996, a 66% increase. The next largest manufacturer to score big in the electric car sales race was Volkswagen with 1,367 e-Golf sales, up 37% from last year.

“This is a development we have expected. Norwegians want big cars that are suitable for cabins and accommodate the whole family. Half of the car sales in Norway are large and medium-sized cars, and only Tesla offers electric car models of this size today. For many, this will still be the only electric car on the market that meets your needs for a while,” says Christina Bu, General Secretary of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association.

The increase in EV sales was matched by a nearly 25% decline in sales of petrol- and diesel-powered cars in September (the former was down 13% January–September and the latter was down 21% in that period). That’s good news for Norway’s air quality. “The decline contributes to historically low emissions,” Bu says. “This is the right way. We know that Tesla has delivered an extra lot of cars this month, but at the same time there are also several who see that time is now ripe for switching to electric cars. We see the start of a mass market, but are still a little behind the necessary development to reach the goal of just selling zero-emission cars by 2025. “

When Bu says the country is a little bit behind, she is talking about charging infrastructure. In Oslo, a new plan will add 600 public chargers and target more chargers for people who live in apartment or condominium buildings. Today, there are about 22,500 electric cars in Oslo. That number is expected to grow to 40,000 by 2020.

The European Union suggests there should be one charger for every 10 electric cars on the road. “The most important thing now is that the development of available chargers keeps pace with the sharp increase in the number of electric cars,” says Christina Bu. The city of Oslo plans to have 1,500 Level 2 chargers and another 520 higher power (22 kW) chargers in operation by next year.

“It’s a good start, but it’s not enough in the long run for what’s going to be a historic shift for road transport in the city,” Bu says. “It is also vital that the municipality collaborates with commercial actors to build more quick chargers. The public can not finance all charging infrastructure alone, and we rely on growing a commercial market that provides for the volume and spread of charging services throughout the country.”

Drivers in Oslo and other cities are beginning to experience lines of other cars waiting to access the available chargers, a situation that is further driving the push to expand the EV charging infrastructure in Norway.

As the Chevrolet Bolt EV has made its way across the US, making itself move and more available at local dealers in every state, sales have (perhaps unsurprisingly) began to rise. For September, GM blew former numbers out of the water, setting a new all-time high, while logging 7 consecutive months of sales gains!

“Yeah, yeah, the Bolt has lots of twirly information, can you just not touch the screen anymore?”

The 238 mile EV also broke into the “2k” level for the second month in a row. Actually, the Bolt more than broke into the 2,000s…

For September, 2,632 Bolts were sold, a 25% gain over the 2,107 sold a month ago.

For the year, 14,302 all-electric Chevys have been delivered, keeping it firmly in the #5 slot on the best selling plug-in list for the US.

Interestingly, while the Bolt has been reaching a wider audience, the national inventory level on the EV, while more balanced, has been dropping over the past couple months; from a high of ~6,000 earlier in the Summer, to just north of 5,000 on average in August, to a few hundred less than that in September.

At this point we aren’t sure if that is a reflection of the recent higher sales constraining the inventory, or just a keener eye on inventory management from GM.

Hey look, isn’t that the car we seen in the Chevy dealership when we bought the Bolt EV?

As for GM’s other plug-in vehicle, it is hard to now not conclude that the Bolt EV is stealing some sales thunder from the Chevy Volt.

As the Bolt has arrived at more dealers, Volt sales have lessened…and not by just a handful of sales, as the year-over-year number have now turned negative for the last 4 months in a row.

We imagine the Bolt EV at Chevy dealers, and this guy (Prius Prime shown above) are responsible for softer Volt sales of late

For September 1,453 Volts were delivered, off 28.5% from the 2,031 sold a year ago.

For the full year, 15,348 Volts has sold, down 6% from 2016’s total of 16,326 cars delivered through the first 3 quarters.

Just looking at Q3 when the Volt and Bolt EV were better competing for more national eyeballs (and wallets) at the dealer level, Volt sales are off 32% (4,416 vs 6,518).

We should note that it may in fact not just be the Bolt EV taking this consumer attention away from the 53 mile, extended range Volt, it might also be the Toyota Prius Prime, which has found a lot of traction appealing to PHEV shoppers…selling some 15,000 copies this year.

Looking at the best selling EV list, the Chevrolet Volt started 2017 as the leader, had fallen to 2nd place a couple months ago, and is now in danger of falling into 5th spot overall, holding just a couple hundred sales advantage over the Prius Prime (15,056), Tesla Model X (~15,290)…with the Bolt EV just 1,000 deliveries behind (14,302).

What can Chevy do to regain the market share? The most obvious answer (besides spending more money to advertise the car – which seems unlikely with the Bolt’s arrival on the scene), is a price reduction, or more dealer-offered incentives.

The commercial trucking company Navistar International and Volkswagen AG’s Truck and Bus will be jointly launching an electric medium-duty truck in the North American market by late 2019, company execs have revealed.

The two firms will be jointly developing hardware and systems that will be used by both of them — this includes “connectivity” systems to keep trucks connected to the internet and each other.

Andreas Renschler

The two companies will also be collaborating on the development of the next generation of “Big Bore” diesel powertrains, Volkswagen Truck CEO Andreas Renschler and Navistar CEO Troy Clarke revealed in an interview with Reuters.

All of this news of course follows on Volkswagen’s relatively recent acquisition of a 16.6% stake in Navistar.

Reuters provides more: “Commercial truck makers are investing in electrification as regulators and policy makers have stepped up pressure to curtail or eliminate pollution from diesel engines in big cities. … The new electric truck for North America will be a Class 6 or 7 truck based on a Navistar vehicle, and aimed at urban delivery customers.

“Volkswagen will test nine electric trucks in Austria that will offer payloads of about 18 tons and ranges of about 180 kilometers between charges, Renschler said. Rival Daimler AG said last week delivered the first of a smaller range of electric delivery trucks to customers in New York.”

The plan is apparently for this Volkswagen + Navistar collaboration to provide the two companies with a solution if some cities start banning diesel trucks due to concerns about air pollution. How likely is that in the next few years?

Renault-Nissan looking to break into China with a new all-electric A Segment SUV (think like Renault Kwid shown here)

Renault-Nissan Alliance has announced a new joint venture – eGT New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd. , which is being established with Dongfeng Motor Group to co-develop and sell electric vehicles in China.

Venucia e30 (aka Nissan LEAF)

Renault and Nissan will each hold 25% of the new JV, while Dongfeng retains 50% of the new company…as per ‘the way it works’ if you want to sell autos in China’.

We should note that, Nissan already has a JV with Dongfeng to produce cars under the Venucia brand (including the e30 “morning wind” – AKA Nissan LEAF).

The goal with this new JV is to develop an all-electric vehicle using an A-segment SUV platform from the Renault-Nissan Alliance – think something like the Renault Kwid (pictured above).

The car would be then produced from 2019 in Dongfeng facility in City of Shiyan, Hubei Province in central China, with capacity of up to 120,000 cars.

“The new joint venture, eGT New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd. (eGT), will focus on the core competencies of each partner and will harness the full potential of the Renault-Nissan Alliance electric vehicle leadership, as well as the resources of Dongfeng in the new energy industry, to meet the expectations of the Chinese market.

eGT will design a new EV with intelligent interconnectivity, that will be in line with the expectations of Chinese customers. It will be jointly developed by the Alliance and Dongfeng on an A-segment SUV platform of the Renault-Nissan Alliance. It will draw on the global leadership on EV technologies and cost-effective car design experience from the Alliance, and the competitive manufacturing costs from Dongfeng.”

“The newly formed eGT is planned to be based in the City of Shiyan, Hubei Province in central China. The electric vehicle will be produced at the Dongfeng plant of Shiyan which has a production and sales capacity of 120,000 vehicles a year. Start of production of the new EV is forecast in the year 2019.”

“The establishment of the new joint venture with Dongfeng confirms our common commitment to develop competitive electric vehicles for the Chinese market. We are confident to meet the expectations of the Chinese customers and to strengthen our global electric vehicle leadership position.”

Official vehicle sales data shows 256,879 BEVs were sold in China last year (up 121%).

And despite a slow start in the Chinese market for 2017, production YTD stands at 223,000 units (up 37.8%), while sales have reached 204,000 units (up 33.6%).