America is thankful for ... stores open on Thanksgiving

After five years of holiday creep, in which retailers pushed store hours ever earlier into Thanksgiving Day, turning Black Friday into Black Thursday, 2015 looked like the year when America finally said, “Enough.”

But consumers, it seems, never can get their fill of shopping.

Costco and REI drew cheers last month when they announced they'd remain closed on both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. Meanwhile, a poll commissioned by coupon aggregator RetailMeNot found that only a tenth of shoppers think that Black Friday savings are worth the wait since deals are now available year-round. And almost half of shoppers say stores should close on Thanksgiving, according to consumer site BestBlackFriday.com.

In real life, however, people will mob stores if they're guaranteed a real deal, and the post-Thanksgiving period remains make-or-break for retailers. Exhibits A and B and C and D: Sears and Wal-Mart and Target and Macy's all will be open for business on the holiday—and every day through Christmas Eve.

“The people who have come out and said, 'We're not going to be open'—many are not really players in that Black Friday, deep-discount paradigm,” says Pat Dermody, president of Retale, a Chicago-based app that digitizes retail circular ads. “The guys who play in the deep discount platform have to open early. They know the cost of not just opening their stores and paying their people, but the cost of the possible negative backlash. It's still worth it to them.”

One thing the backlash against Thanksgiving Day hours will do is prompt shoppers to come out with renewed vigor on actual Black Friday, says Bill Martin, founder of ShopperTrak,a Chicago-based customer analytics and retail traffic counting firm. He predicts Black Friday will regain its title of the busiest shopping day of the year in 2015, after being knocked off its perch last year by Super Saturday, the final Saturday before Christmas.

Overall sales for the holiday season will increase 2.4 percent, Martin predicts, which will set a record. “This is the fifth year in a row we're seeing growth in sales, though the growth is slowing, and we're going to set a new record in visits to brick-and-mortar stores,” he says. He credits the tightening job market, higher wages and a drop in energy costs for putting more money in the pockets of consumers.

TIME IS RUNNING OUT

The National Retail Federation, meanwhile, estimates that 58.7 percent of consumers, or 135.8 million Americans, at least plan to shop during the four-day weekend. The trade group expects overall holiday sales to increase 3.7 percent this year, not quite as good as 2014's 4.1 percent spike. “The importance of Thanksgiving weekend to both retailers and consumers will never change,” says Matthew Shay, the trade group's CEO.

Chicago-area shoppers are displaying caution, according to Deloitte's annual holiday shopping survey. Eighty-four percent of local residents plan to spend the same or less on the holidays than they did last year. That doesn't necessarily mean they're making fewer purchases, but rather taking advantage of ever-lower prices.

In order to lure thrifty shoppers, retailers have been caught in a downward spiral of offering steep discounts and price matches that require them to sell more to hit the same level of sales gains. “Retailers are wondering, 'Is this a continuous pattern?' ” says Tom Compernolle, a Chicago-based principal at Deloitte Consulting.

A weaker start to the year makes Black Friday all the more important. Even though prices go remarkably low, the weekend's profits are often better than at other points in the year.

“The heavy advertising of discounts would lead one to believe that Black Friday sales are less profitable,” Chicago-based LPL Financial writes in a report, first cited in the Wall Street Journal. “However, gross profit margins for retailers are actually highest during the holiday season.” That's because retailers negotiate better Black Friday prices with suppliers, and use the extreme sales to lure customers into stores, where they may buy other, higher-margin wares.

“Given high sales and solid overall margins, retailers are likely to continue offering Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals for the foreseeable future,” the report says.

At Macy's flagship on State Street, workers will be cheerfully hawking $39.99 Charter Club cashmere sweaters and $149 three-eighths carat diamond earrings at 6 p.m. Thanksgiving, even before the dishes are cleaned in many households.

“We find that our shoppers really get into the spirit,” says Andrea Schwartz, Macy's Midwest spokeswoman. “They either want the exercise after their meal or they dress up and treat it as part of their holiday ritual. We hope that continues for a really long time.”