Thursday, May 22, 2008

I have some ongoing blogging of recent quake activity on my Google blog with other interest stories thrown in on the side, at this address:http://kathycalm.blogspot.com/It's easier to find quake stories and right click to blog, then comment on them. Here, one has to post a photo or start a new post, which is too time consuming. I have very little time despite being unemployed, everything I do now is from scratch; to save having to drive miles to the store and to save money.

The Recent China Quake underscores the new seismic code system insufficiencies to rate past code building performances, assess present standards necessary for seismic safety, and evaluate changing risks. The system should be computerized and constantly log structural load data from public and private sites. Then the city will also be alerted to possible liquifaction trouble, before it actualy happens. I believe there are electromagnetic readings before the earth moves dramatically, that engineers can measure at each site.

Exerpt from Relief Web story on school building performances in the rather widespread quake effect area.

China's quake: Why did so many schools collapse?Earthquake experts say the collapsed schools may be a sign of poor construction despite adequate building codes.

In the wake of Monday's 7.9-magnitude earthquake in China's southwestern province of Sichuan, some international experts are questioning the adequacy of the region's building codes and construction practices.

Juyuan Middle School, about 60 miles from the epicenter, was one of several schools that collapsed Monday. So far rescuers have recovered more than 60 bodies from the school, the official Xinhua News Agency said. But there was little word on the rest of the nearly 900 teenagers who were believed to be trapped under their collapsed school building.

Some students managed to escape, while at least one was pulled out of the wreckage alive Tuesday morning. At least 1,000 students and teachers were killed or missing after another school collapsed in Mianyang city, about 100 miles northeast of the epicenter, Xinhua reported.

Other schools closer to the epicenter also toppled, although specifics were not available because the area was generally inaccessible.

Earthquake engineers say that constructing a building to resist a quake of magnitude 7 or 8 is possible, but is often considered cost prohibitive, adding 7 to 8 percent in costs.

'Earthquake resistance is really more workmanship, than material,' Amr Elnashai, director of the Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, says.

Most seismologists interviewed say that China's quake code is adequate, if not the most up-to-date. 'It is well-defined and has all the right features,' says Mr. Elnashai.

Earthquake resistance, he notes, does not mean buildings don't sustain damage; they do, but don't collapse.

Schools, he says, are particularly vulnerable because they are often mid-sized buildings, smaller projects for contractors that are paid for the a government bureaucracies. Two recent earthquakes in Indonesia and in Kashmir also resulted in a disproportionate student deaths. 'Often school buildings suffer quite a bit,' Elnashnai says.

Roger Musson, a seismologist at the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, Scotland, notes that China has good earthquake engineers, but 'you can never tell what's going to happen on the spot.'

China has a history of massive earthquakes. About 200 of its cities with a population of over a million are located at risk of magnitude 7 earthquake.

'In this case, where the earthquake occurred, there are a magnitude 4 earthquakes every couple of months,' says Lupei Zhu, an associate professor of geophysics, at St. Louis University in Missouri, and a former employee of the China Earthquake Administration, which oversees public awareness and the collection of seismic data for the country.

Bill Murphy, an engineering geologist at the University of Leeds in England, notes that magnitude of the quake is only one measure. 'It's not so much the magnitude, but the amount of shaking,' he says. 'Some of these aftershocks [in Sichuan] have been earthquakes in their own right. That might cause some additional buildings to collapse, especially those that have been weakened by the main earthquake.'

A civil engineer at the University of Western Australia in Perth told New Scientist magazine that the buildings in Sichuan weren't built to withstand an earthquake as large as the one that hit.

'The seismic code for the area substantially underestimated the earthquake strength,' said Hong Hao. He said that China's earthquake regulations class this province as equivalent to a 7 on the Mercalli intensity scale, which uses historical information to assess risk of damage from earthquakes. That means there's a 10 percent risk of an earthquake occurring every 50 years of an intensity that would cause negligible damaged. Monday's quake was a 10 or 11 on the Mercalli scale.

Activity Summary for last 24 hours: Lava continued to flow into the ocean at the Waikupanaha and Ki ocean entries. The east margin of the flow field continued to advance slowly eastward into the adjacent kipuka and was about 150 m (500 ft) east of the County viewing area yesterday morning. No new explosions have occurred at Kilauea summit. Sulfur dioxide emission rates and seismic tremor levels continued elevated to several times background levels at Kilauea summit.

Hazard Summary: Hazardous conditions exist in four areas on Kilauea volcano - potentially harmful sulfur dioxide concentrations and possible small explosions at the summit, potentially harmful sulfur dioxide concentrations and unstable conditions around the Pu`u `O`o/July 21/TEB vent area, lava flow threat to the Royal Gardens subdivision and the coastal plain to the southeast, and hazardous conditions associated with lava entering the ocean.

1. The current increase in sulfur dioxide emission rates at the summit means that SO2 concentrations in the air are likely to be at hazardous levels for areas downwind of emission sources in Halema`uma`u crater. The National Park Service has closed Crater Rim Drive through the south caldera area until further notice (http://www.nps.gov/havo/closed_areas.htm). Most people are sensitive to sulfur dioxide at these levels. Children and individuals with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or other breathing problems especially should avoid downwind areas. During tradewind conditions (brisk winds from the northeast), concentrations will be highest and most hazardous in the south caldera: southwest rift zone, south caldera pullouts, and the Halema`uma`u overlook parking lot - The National Park Service has closed this section of Crater Rim Drive. During weak or southerly winds, concentrations may be high and hazardous throughout the summit area of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park and nearby communities. Stay informed about SO2 concentrations in continuously monitored areas at Jaggar Museum and Kilauea Visitor Center.Sulfur dioxide levels have been on the rise at Kilauea since December. "There's enough sulfur dioxide being put out at the Kilauea summit right now to fill 150 Goodyear blimps a day". "It is a concern." (http:// www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/havoso2alert/havoalert.cfm).

There is a possibility of small explosions from Halema`uma`u Crater.

2. Vent areas and lava channels are hazardous and conditions can change rapidly. Sulfur dioxide emissions from Pu`u `O`o are high and result in hazardous concentrations downwind. Access to the 7/21 eruption site in the Kahauale`a Natural Area Reserve is closed (see http://www.state.hi.us/dlnr/chair/pio/HtmlNR/07-N076.htm). Wao Kele o Puna is also closed.

3. There continues to be a threat from lava flows to anyone within Royal Gardens subdivision and the coastal plain. As long as lava flows are active south of fissure D, the subdivision is within likely flow paths of future flows. The rootless shields, which are now less than two miles from the subdivision, can collapse and release lava flows that advance that distance within a few days. Tube- or channel-fed lava flows established within the subdivision and on the coastal plain remain a threat due to tube ruptures which can produce new lava flows. Lava flows advancing through vegetation are hazardous and can produce fire and methane explosions that propel chunks of lava and rock several feet into the air. Hawai`i County Civil Defense has been notified and is taking appropriate measures (www.lavainfo.us).

4. Lava entering the ocean poses two additional hazards - potential collapse and laze. Lava entering the ocean builds a delta over its own rubble that is extremely unstable. That delta can collapse without warning and expose very hot surfaces to waves which can explode and throw rock debris up to one-quarter mile inland. For these reason, spectators should avoid the delta and the area one-quarter mile inland. The interaction between seawater and lava produces a steam plume laced with acids and fine particles of volcanic glass or 'laze' that is unhealthy if inhaled and can produce skin or eye irritation if contacted. Hawai`i County continues to prepare for safe public viewing hopefully this weekend. For details, see www.lavainfo.us.

TEB lava flows at the coast as of yesterday evening (from combined HVO and NPS eruption crew reports): Lava continued to flow into the ocean at the Waikupanaha and Ki ocean entries; evening visitors could see nearly a dozen entry points on the Waikupanaha delta but only incandescence in steam from the Ki entry. The eastern margin of active lava flows was still about 150 m (500 ft) west of the County viewing area yesterday morning and creeping eastward and over the old sea cliff onto the 1990 lava delta. Flows edging through the kipuka continued to produce local fires.

Last 24 hours of the TEB vent area: There was no incandescence from the TEB, rootless shields, or the Kalalua flow visible in the webcam overnight. Seismic tremor levels were at low levels.

Last 24 hours at Pu`u `O`o: Diffuse incandescence was observed by webcam overnight in the crater. The tiltmeter again recorded weak deflation from a source to the souteast. GPS receivers on opposite sides of the crater continued to record contraction at a rate averaging 2 cm/month over the past 3 months. Seismic tremor levels were at low values. The SO2 emission rate was about 2,050 tonnes/day on March 19.

Last 24 hours at Kilauea summit: Seismic tremor levels have been elevated above their already-elevated levels since the explosion at 2:58 HST March 19. The tremor levels abruptly decreased beginning at 2:30 am only at the seismometer nearest the Halema`uma`u gas vent. At about the same time, incandescence diminished from the the gas vent as viewed in the new webcam. The summit tiltmeter network recorded continued weak deflation. Only one small earthquake was located beneath Kilauea caldera and two were located on south flank faults.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates from the summit area have been elevated at several times background values since early January and have more than doubled since March 12. The most recent emission rate measurement was about 1,600 tonnes/day on Mar. 19, compared to a background rate of between 150-200 tonnes/day.

Sulfur dioxide concentrations were again below detection limits at Jaggar museum and Kilauea Visitors Center. Trade (northeasterly) winds kept gas emissions in the south caldera where SO2 concentrations were up to 40 ppm in areas downwind of Halema`uma`u crater along Crater Rim Drive (mostly between Halema`uma`u parking lot and the southwest rift zone pullout during trade winds) and up to 140 ppm near the Halema`uma`u overlook close to the new vent.

Definitions of terms used in the update:

ppm: parts-per-million; 10,000 ppm = 1%.

mauka, makai: Hawaiian terms for the direction toward the mountains and toward the ocean, respectively.

incandescence: the production of visible light from a hot surface. The color of the light is related to the temperature of the surface. Some surfaces can display dull red incandescence at temperatures as low as 430 degrees Centigrade (806 degrees Fahrenheit). By contrast, molten lava displays bright orange to orange-yellow light from surfaces that are hotter than 900 degrees C (1,650 degrees F).

TEB: The most recent phase of activity started with a breakout from the perched channel/pond system on November 21, 2007 or Thanksgiving eve. TEB stands for Thanksgiving Eve Breakout.

kipuka: a Hawaiian word which describes an area of vegetation that is completely surrounded by active or inactive lava flows.

NPS eruption crew: a hardy band of experienced individuals who interpret active lava flow viewing for visitors while keeping them at a safe distance. The National Park Service (NPS) eruption crews normally work within the Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park but have been supporting the Hawai`i County lava viewing effort since it opened on Saturday, March 8, 2008.

rootless shields: Shield vents are normally built directly over a lava-supplying fissure, as is the case for the TEB shield. Rootless shield vents are not built directly over a lava-supplying fissure and are, instead, fed horizontally from a fissure via a lava tube. Rootless shields have been built over Kilauea lava tubes in the last few years.

perched ponds or channels: A lava pond or channel becomes perched above the surrounding terrain when repeated overflows build up their edges. The perching continues as long as the overflows continue. The channel developed by the July 21, 2007 eruption perched itself more than 100 feet above the pre-eruption ground surface.

gas emission rates: usually in metric tonnes (= 1,000 kilograms)/day if measured at HVO, a gas emission rate is the rate at which gas is released by a volcanic vent. Typical background SO2 emission rates for Kilauea are 150-200 tonnes/day from sources in Halema`uma`u crater and 1,500-3,000 tonnes/day from Pu`u `O`o vent. Once the gas is released into the air, the hazard it poses to living things is directly related to its concentration. Higher concentrations are found downwind of sources so changes in wind direction and speed can bring gases at hazardous concentrations into different areas.

LP earthquakes: Most volcanic earthquakes that occur in Hawai`i are short-period (SP) in nature, meaning that the shaking starts abruptly and contains relatively high frequency components; these quakes are usually associated with subsurface rock failure (breakage). Long-period (LP) earthquakes have lower frequency energy and emergent beginnings, meaning that their signals start with small amplitude and become stronger. LP earthquakes are usually associated with subsurface fluid movement.

DI tilt event: DI is an abbreviation for 'deflation-inflation' and describes a volcanic event of uncertain significance. DI events are recorded by tiltmeters at Kilauea summit as an abrupt deflation of up to a few microradians in magnitude lasting several hours to 2-3 days followed by an abrupt inflation of approximately equal magnitude. The tilt events are usually accompanied by an increase in summit tremor during the deflation phase. A careful analysis of these events suggests that they may be related to changes in magma supply to a storage reservoir at less than 1 km depth, just east of Halema`uma`u crater. Usually, though not always, these changes propagate through the magma conduit from the summit to the eruption site, as many of the DI events at Kilauea summit are also recorded at a tiltmeter at Pu`u `O`o, delayed by 1-2 hours. DI events often correlate with pulses and/or pauses in the eruption at the Pu`u `O`o/July 21/TEB vents.

Friday, March 7, 2008

9:56AM

SEATTLE -- We have about 1,000 earthquakes every year in Washington and Oregon. The 6.8 Nisqually quake from 2001 certainly showed us the Earth's power.

UW Professor Ken Creager points to a crude map on the computer, "We're confident that the tremor's going on down in this area."

That area is under Bremerton and southern Hood Canal.

"It's nothing very interesting to look at on the seismograph, it just looks like wind noise," he said.

Scientists call this a slow tremor. It happens once about every 14 months.

They mapped it for the first time in July 2004. Even though the ground's moving beneath us again, we can't feel it. If we could measure it, it would have a magnitude of about 6.7. And that's just about what California's Northridge and our local Nisqually quakes were.

However, those happened over a period of about 15 to 20 seconds. The ground moving below us right now will occur over about 15 to 20 days.

This slow tremor started Sunday and may last another week or more. But the movement is so slight -- just a fraction of an inch -- that researchers needed a new network to track it.

Creager and a team of volunteers set out 100 temporary seismographs to record the hidden movement.

"And we'll use it much like a telescope to be able to image where the energy's coming from in great detail," Creager said.

Seismologists know these deep tremors put extra strain on the two plates under the Pacific Northwest, but how much?

Does that mean a major earthquake could be just around the corner?

If you want to follow the current slow tremor, just click here and look for their daily updates: www.pnsn.org

Saturday, March 1, 2008

I joined Linkedin at:http://www.linkedin.com/home?myGroups=&trk=hb_side_grpsand began a group for this area,Living in the 9.5 Earthquake and Nuclear Repository Zone.If anyone joins Linkedin and wants to be put on the member roster for this group, leave your email under comments.The benefit from this is closer networking capability. Especially so, if you have a livejournal account also; to form a concensus block of informed citizens thrust into this small area of planet earth.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Hey if the snowfall gets so extreme that all the passes are closed....and La Nina is lasting until the summer...will anyone bother to mention whether this portends for volcanic activity? Or Perhaps No-One Knows...Yet?

Monday, January 21, 2008

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Hey, what about that little bit bigger quake offshore the other day, a M6.4? Scroll down for the auto-updating map below. Also Yellowstone is having a swarm at the hotspot of the same name. As occurred previously in the 1980 eruption year, Mt. St. Helens has maybe responded to this offshore action...with a blowdown at Vancouver Lake....usually it is a quake swarm nearby at Sauvie's Island. My camping spot in this area is at Battle Ground Lake, formerly Crater Lake, renamed because the handle was taken by the Mt. Mazama blowout lake in southern Oregon...play it again Sam?Speaking of whom...Dan Rather is suing CBS over his being fired for reporting on the whereabouts of one president to be GEORGE W. BUSH in 1973; the year I graduated early from high school and resided in the out of state exclusive CU (CO-ED)dorm on the female side with a guy named George on our side of the division...right next to and across from the only dorm singles rooms on the girl's side. Who remembers George's roomate?...and why again did he want to date ME????????????Was this why I seemed relieved that he would cross over to the MALE side to drop acid(rumored) with his buddies...how did they know each other so well? And did they slip the bud in the mailbox at XMAS? Or was that some other snoody person... Anyway,

Judge May Let Rather's Lawsuit Proceed A judge said Wednesday that he was leaning toward allowing Dan Rather's $70 million lawsuit over his being fired by CBS to proceed.

The judge did not issue a final ruling on CBS' motion, but he suggested the parties try to agree on the scope of pretrial discovery - just in case - and told them to return to court Jan. 23 for a conference.

Rather, whose last months at CBS were clouded by a disputed story on President Bush's Vietnam-era military service, says his employers made him a "scapegoat" to placate the White House after questions arose about the story.

"When you blow all the smoke away, this is a case of Mr. Rather being disappointed that he was benched by CBS and that they did not put him on '60 Minutes,'" Quinn told the judge.

Quinn said CBS bosses had "a right to use Mr. Rather as they saw fit as long as they paid him. The (contract) language is crystal clear."

Rather's lawyer, Martin R. Gold, said that while CBS had the right to take Rather off the air after 24 years in the anchor chair, the network had to pay him until their contract expired and then "terminate him, give him his freedom."

Rather was removed from his "CBS Evening News" post in March 2005, six months after he narrated a report that said Bush disobeyed orders and shirked some of his duties during his National Guard service. The report also said a commander felt pressured to sugarcoat Bush's record.

For Nostalgia Buffs:

Quotes from CBS Anchor Dan Rather on Election Night 2004

"Do you hear that knocking...President Bush's re-election is at the door."

"This race is hotter than a Times Square Rolex."

"His lead is as thin as turnip soup."

"This race is hotter than the Devil's anvil."

"One's reminded of that old saying, 'Don't taunt the alligator until after you've crossed the creek.'"

"This situation in Ohio would give an aspirin a headache.''

"No question now that Kerry's rapidly reaching the point where he's got his back to the wall, his shirttails on fire and the bill collector's at the door."

(To Joe Lockhart) "I know that you'd rather walk through a furnace in a gasoline suit than consider the possibility that John Kerry would lose Ohio."

(To Joe Lockhart) "What about Michigan? It's been out there for a long time. Is that making your fingernails sweat?"

"No one is saying that George Bush is not going to win the election, and if you had to bet the double-wide, you'd have to bet that he'd win."

"In southern states they beat him like a rented mule."

"We need Billy Crystal to Analyze This"

"You know that old song, 'it's delightful, it's delicious, it's de-lovely' for President Bush in most areas of the country."

"We had a slight hitch in our giddy up, but we corrected that."

"In some ways, George Bush's lead is as thin as November ice."

"You look at the map and say it's all a big Bush victory. But this is one time when your Mother is right, looks can be deceiving."

"Is it like a swan, with every feather above the water settled, but under the water paddling like crazy?"

"What you have here is the football equivalent of a fourth quarter rally by Kerry."

The election is "closer than Lassie and Timmy"

"Keep in mind they are teetotally meetmortally convinced they have Ohio won."

"Vice President Dick Cheney would not have flown all the way out there (Hawaii) overnight and put that lei around his neck and sort of hula-danced, if you will, unless he thought there was a chance of carrying that out there."

"President Bush smiling there with his family. He's laid down aces so far."

They asked me for a special photo at the picture.com site that could be featured in an upcoming book of favorite photographers. I never heard anything more about it. I wonder what became of that compilation of photographs? This photo is the one I chose to be included. It's a swarm of birds swooping over a graveyard of old farm jalopies in the valley of Hood River, below Mt. Hood along the Columbia River, Oregon State. Here is todays Pacific Northwest Storm Report for the SKI AREA up there at the top of the VOLCANO.....LSRPQRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR1207 PM PST WED JAN 09 2008..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..1112 AM HEAVY SNOW MOUNT HOOD 45.38N 121.70W01/09/2008 M30.0 INCH CLACKAMAS, OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS 24 HR STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT MOUNT HOOD MEADOWS

Monday, December 17, 2007

The State is recovering from another round of 100 year flooding. Darn these levy peoples, cause I-5 was closed when I needed to go somewhere camping(near Mt. St. Helens) If they had matched the funds raised locally, they would have repaired the failed levy and not lost the millions due to the 4 day closure of the highway. It was one of these Corps of Engineers event. Put in the engineering marvel and marvel at the destruction that escalates as a result of the underestimation of the forces at work in the volcanic zone of western Washington State. Can they go back to the bronze age maybe? There goes a statue of George Bush...wooosh! I had a relative that was cut off by the bridge failure at Doty, I think. What a stalwart! If the coast had had a tsunami, I would have been tempted to call the govorner's office to get her a helicopter rescue, if possible...if she is still alive. You see, when my estranged grandfather moved to the state with Millie(the relative's sister), that meant that he could only pass their inheritance along to another state relative, via L-A-W. As it turns out, according to Millie, she was the rich woman, poor man partner; and alas she left her bequeathment from Panorama City, in Lacey, to the relative; who had also moved to the state . Now in her 80's who stop remembering alot, like who YOU are...the black sheep of the family, who married her first cousin...the son of the daughter of Millie's husband? Yes, something like that....doesn't RING A BELL, or A WHISTLE, but is a paralell because she had her cataracts and a little dog for companionship, and money... yes, as I once did. June Clare, you HAVE SURVIVED the latest and greatest El Nino/ La Nino event of the 2007/8 season with the accompanying 100year flood. Do I need a Hallmark Card....or maybe a trip for you to the White House to meet with the President, who was most ABLE and UPPERHANDEDLY handled the whole UNPRECEDENTED disaster? Some winds upcoming now in the next few days, geophysics related, maybe? Also watching next door; where one of the Chiwauwas, Emma, is let out of her lonely cold garage perch, running into the busy intersection screaming 2-3 times daily and stopping traffic that resembles a staged show at the local drag race track. My Mom wants to get a Chorky, but waits to hear how the neighbor's dogs are doing, when we talk on the phone, as my last drive cross country to see her was before the NEW CENTURY!

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Thursday, July 12, 20079:21AM - Volcanic Areas with High Fire DangerRecord temps in Western Washington above 100 for the past 2 days. Even Yellowstone has a high fire danger. The park implements new fire restrictions today according to the story at:http://www.jhguide.com/article.php?art_id=1974

The new restrictions are:

– Lighting, building, maintaining, attending or using a fire is prohibited at all backcountry campsites on Jackson Lake, Leigh Lake, Bearpaw Lake, Trapper Lake and Spalding Bay, as well as at the Colter Bay swim beach and String Lake picnic area.

– All campfires must be completely extinguished and cold to the touch before campers depart their sites. Unattended or abandoned campfires can quickly escalate into wildfires, fire officials say. Visitors should never leave a fire unattended and should prepare for the unexpected by having a water bucket and shovel on hand and ready to use.

Partial fire restrictions implemented July 3 are still in effect in the park and on Bridger-Teton National Forest lands. Those include:

– Lighting, building, maintaining, attending or using a fire, campfire, barbecue or grill is allowed only at designated recreation sites such as established campgrounds or picnic areas, unless otherwise prohibited by the new restrictions in Grand Teton. Use of portable stoves and lanterns using gas, jellied petroleum or pressurized liquid fuel, or use of a fully enclosed sheepherder-type stove with a spark arrester screen is permitted.

– Smoking is allowed only in an enclosed vehicle, building (unless otherwise prohibited), developed recreation site, or while in an area at least 3 feet in diameter that is barren or cleared of all flammable materials (such as parking lots, developed campsites or locations surrounded by water).

– Operating a chain saw in national parks is prohibited. Operating a chain saw on national forests is permitted only when equipped with a spark arrester approved by the U.S. Department of Agriculture or SAE that is properly installed and in effective working order. Operators must also carry a chemical pressurized fire extinguisher with a minimum rating of 2A and one round point shovel with an overall length of at least 36 inches.

– Discharge of fireworks and use of explosives requiring blasting caps are prohibited.

Friday, July 6, 2007

Weather forecasters are predicting the same pattern that resulted in 100 record temp at Seatac in '94. I like to derive some satisfaction in looking at the heat indexes for the oceans and saying that all the red areas, El-Nino-wise is causing this flux. And that the Kelvin Wave theories are just a little too pat...that behind all the hot is a La-Nina waxing oh sooo cool. But guys what about the theory of the woman behind the man. In this wave theory isn't there a little bit of Einsteinian magic going on here?The colder background for the warmer foredrop that's being heaped ala Kelvin Wave on California this week. And what about next week, while we are being parbroiled in the Northwest? This is what they suggest at the NOAA Forecast Office:.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST MAY BE PULLED CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA BUT THE KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS BRING A MUCH LONGER FETCH OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE INTO SOCAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER ONE INCH. This occurrance is a trait of an oncoming El-Nino, not La Nina. Meanwhile, back at the hurricane center, the peons have voted no-confidence in the director trying to levitate funds from the public domain.Exerpt:National Hurricane Center Staff Rebels

MIAMI -- There's a family feud at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Nearly half the center's 50-some employees say their boss ought to be fired.

They're upset over Proenza's high-profile complaints to his bosses about agency funding and about a crucial weather satellite called QuikScat. It's on a backup transmitter after exceeding its life expectancy. Proenza says if it fails, hurricane forecasts would be less accurate.

According to accuweather, there are more than several tropical waves headed this way in response to our recent weather meltdown. Is this the general response of the gov employee to kick up their heels with oncoming crisis'?

Thursday, July 5, 2007

For the next week the area will be mostly in the 80's with no rain expected. Maybe this will coincide with a hurricane forming to try to break the heat wave. Or even possibly a volcano erupting to reign in the global warming. Mexico just had a M6.1 in the south part; and before that the Mid Atlantic Ridge.

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Check this out, I 've heard of a sinkhole in the University Bridge neighborhood years ago when I was searching for housing as an urban planning student in the undergraduate program at the University of Washington. That program is now a Masters only, and they changed my degree on the diploma to just be liberal arts at the last minute without telling me; maybe this is why, I always wondered what they were trying to hide. Besides the University bridge, which is a major arterial bridge between neighborhoods, there is the ship canal bridge looming overhead, which is the Interstate 5 bridge that takes cars north and south up and down the west coast. Since I've graduated in 1980, I've spent most of my time researching earthquakes and hanging out at the geophysics lab on campus. The state seismologist was killed by a logging truck on the Olympic Peninsula, where the UW owns land, last October. The new head of the UW quake department is from California, as they all seem to come from. But more interestingly is that he is not apparently the new state seismologist too.UPDATE: MAYBE, MAYBE NOT!On the web page at:http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/vidale/It says Wa State Seismologist under his name. On his standardized ESS page, it omits that particular. So I wonder, WHO IS actually owning up to those immense responsibilities?? If they think there is some undermining of soils under I-5 from sinkholes, a possible thermal indicator, who is the person in charge of that area of seismic concern? Because last week, further down the road closer to the downtown area, another watermain ruptured. In San Francisco, this may mean a quake is ahead, even if they blame it on other causes. I'm not employed in this area, or any; but I know what is going on with the geology. This isn't just ANY BASIN.... it's a PULL-APART-BASIN, like at Lake Mead. Why do MEN like to build here? 2 REASONS...that I won't delve into here. There are some tiny swarms of quakes happening under the VAST bodies of water surrounding the city, that I believe are thermal swarms. I think one of these swarms helped down the I-90 bridge during a bad storm awhile back. Does anyone remember that story? There was a particular seismic wave that the seismology department recorded on their catalog, a L wave at the same time. If you look at the locations of microtremors from their catalog online, some are concentrated near Kirkland in Lake Washington, and some in Lake Union near the Seattle Center. Besides the killer seismic L-Wave, there is the tsunami risk from a landslide that has now been documented in the past for the Montlake area to Lake Washington. I think this is from the same causes as above. It's all putting geophysics pieces in place for our area. This weekend is the opening of boating season, and I think these boaters deserve the real story about their risks treading the THERMAL Seismic Waters of Seattle!

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Big wave cloud formed at Rainier, before an Arctic Blast that will be moving in Sunday night and Monday, covering the entire state.

Exerpt:Lenticular clouds, technically known as altocumulus standing lenticularis, are stationary lens-shaped clouds that form at high altitudes, normally aligned at right-angles to the wind direction.

Where stable moist air flows over a mountain or a range of mountains, a series of large-scale standing waves may form on the downwind side. Lenticular clouds sometimes form at the crests of these waves. Under certain conditions, long strings of lenticular clouds can form, creating a formation known as a wave cloud.

Power pilots tend to avoid flying near lenticular clouds because of the turbulence of the rotor systems that accompany them, but sailplane pilots actively seek them out. This is because the systems of atmospheric standing waves that cause "lennies" (as they are sometimes familiarly called) also involve large vertical air movements, and the precise location of the rising air mass is fairly easy to predict from the orientation of the clouds.

When the world's tallest geyser starts huffing, puffing and spewing, people pay attention.

So when Steamboat Geyser at Yellowstone National Park recently shot a plume of steam several hundred feet into the air, geyser watchers wondered whether it was erupting for the first time since May 2005.

There were other indications, too, including the draining of nearby Cistern Spring, often a telltale sign that Steamboat had ripped into one of its famous, and rare, eruptions.

But one thing was lacking: the thousands of gallons of water that flow out of Steamboat during those spectacular events.

One of the biggest questions now is whether the activity at the geyser, located at Norris Geyser Basin, is a sign that it's preparing for a major eruption.

The geyser fell quiet from 1991 to May 2000. Since then, seven major eruptions have been recorded, more than at any time since the early 1980s.

Park visitors and staff noticed some unusual activity at Steamboat on Feb. 11 and again 10 days later.

"Steamboat Geyser appears to be ready to erupt," said an e-mail from an observer on Feb. 22.

The biggest spikes in activity came around 2:40 a.m. on Feb. 11 and 2 a.m. Feb. 21.

Heasler and others checked on Feb. 23. Despite clear signs of activity, including the steam phase, snow around Steamboat didn't appear melted and there wasn't the scattered rock and other debris that tends to be stirred up in a major eruption, Heasler said. It was odd, too, to see that Cistern had drained but that nearby gauges showed no big discharge of water typical of a Steamboat eruption.

Fortunately, Norris Geyser Basin was recently wired with a network of gauges and monitors to track temperature, water flow, seismic movements and other activity. Heasler and others hope to review the records to see if there was anything unusual that might illuminate what happened in Steamboat's agitated state.