Under current conventions, most major conference teams schedule one serious non-conference opponent each year. This means that SEC teams typically schedule three non-conference turkeys.

Pac-12 teams schedule two.

As a general matter, this means that Pac-12 teams have one additional realistic chance to lose a game each year. This tends to improve Pac-12 strength of schedule in computer rankings. But it also tends to hurt Pac-12 won-loss records—and won-loss records are considered sacrosanct by the top sports pundits who create the nation’s scripts and vote in the national polls.

By far, this strikes us as the toughest year to pick two teams for the title game. Over the weekend, John Feinstein expressed Standard Pundit Certainty concerning Auburn’s obvious greatness.

Auburn scheduled three turkeys from the lesser circuits. Arizona State scheduled one.

On October 5, Arizona State lost by 3 to Notre Dame. The next week, Auburn blasted Western Carolina. That’s why Arizona State is a pitiful two-loss team. By pundit standards, that makes them plainly worse than magnificent one-loss Auburn.

People, two losses is more than one! Every top pundit understands this, or has someone to help with the math.