Polls: Economic

Power Supply Worsens In Q4 at the Peak of the Privatisation Process; Was Best In Q1

Abuja, Nigeria. January 24th, 2013 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the Fourth Quarter of 2013 have revealed that although power supply to households worsened in the fourth quarter, nevertheless majority of Nigerians (70%) are hopeful about the on-going reform in the power sector. More findings revealed that an average of 46% of Nigerians received between 1-4 hours of continuous power supply daily, while 17% said they have received absolutely “No Light” in their households. These were the key findings from the Power Snap Poll conducted in Quarter 4 (Q4), 2013.

In the Fourth Quarter of 2013, the Nigerian power sector saw an achievement of a milestone as the privatisation process, initiated to reform the power sector was taken to the next level. This involved the final hand over of 11 power distribution and five generation companies, created out of PHCN which was regulated by the Nigerian Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC), to their private owners on behalf of the Federal Government. This implies that in the new era for the power sector, privately owned generating companies will sell directly to distribution companies, which finally gets power to consumers.[1]

With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in April 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms, the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on alternative sources of power. This results presented is 3rd in the series for Q4 2013 following the Q2 and Q3 reports.

Key Findings

In order to highlight the trends in power supply over Q4 2013, respondents were asked the following question:How would you describe power in your area in the past 1 month? An assessment of the state of power supply in Q4 (averages of all 3 months) revealed that the majority; Av:45% (31% +14%) of Nigerians reported power supply remains bad or has worsened, Av:33%(30% +3%) indicated some improvement and Av:22%reported no difference in power supply. In addition, October (36%) recorded the highest proportion of respondents who experienced little improvement, November (25%) had the highest proportion of respondents who did not experience any difference in the state of power

Annual Nationwide review: A review of the state of power for the year 2013 (12 months) shows that power was best in Q1 and worse in Q4. This is evident on the fact that Q1 recorded the highest proportion of respondents who gave a positive report (40%: 33%+7%) andQ4 has the highest proportion of respondents (which also represents the majority) that gave a negative report (45%: 31%+14%) on power. A further trend analysis shows a 4-point decline in the proportion of respondents that claimed power supply improved very much from Q3 (7%) to Q4 (3%) and 5-Point increase in the proportion that claimed power supply remains bad from Q3 (26%) to Q4 (31%). These figures reveal that the power worsened in the fourth quarter which also ushered in a new era for the power sector.

Annual Regional Review: Furthermore, a regional appraisal of power in 2013 reveals that the North-East zone is the most affected zone with poor power supply as it recorded the highest proportion of respondents that claimed power supply remains bad and has gone worse in three quarters; Q1(39%), Q2(61%) and Q4(59%). In addition, the South-East zone had the best power report in first 2 quarters as it recorded the highest proportion of respondents who experienced an improvement in Q1 (46%) and Q2 (41%) while the best power report in the last two quarters of 2013 was obtained in the South-South zone as it recorded the highest proportion of respondents that experienced an improvement in the state of power in Q3 (47%) and Q4 (43%).

The table below shows the yearly averages of all the six Geo Political zones on the perception of power supply over the 12-month period under review. A total of 12,000+ respondents were interviewed.

Yearly Averages: The zones are spilt equally along the lines of bad and improved power supply; South East (43%), North-Central (41%) and South-South (41%) are the zones whose majority have seen improvements in their power supply over the 12 months while the North-East (51%), North West (46%)and South-West (46%) are zones whose majority reported bad/worsened power supply.

Subsequently, in order to assess the length of hours of power supply generally received by Nigerian households daily, respondents were asked: On the average, how many hours of continuous power supply does your household experience daily? On an average, the majority of Nigerians (46%) receive 1-4 hours of continuous power daily; this is followed by 20% who claimed they receive between 5-9 hours of continuous power and 17% who reported they receive no power supply at all. Furthermore the month of December recorded the highest proportion of Nigerians that receives 1-4 hours of continuous power supply daily.

A nine months review revealed a continuous decline in the duration of hours of continuous power supply received by the majority of Nigerian households from Q2 to Q4. This is evident on the fact that there was a total 4-pointdecline in the proportion of Nigerians that receive 5-9 hours of power supply from Q2 (23%) and Q4 (19%) as well as a corresponding 3-point total increase in the proportion of Nigerians that receive 1-4 hours of power supply from Q2 (43%) to Q4 (46%).

With the aim of measuring the proportion of Nigerians that use alternative sources, respondents were asked: Do you use any alternate source of electricity supply such as generators or inverters? An average across the three months in Q4 revealed that 81% of Nigerians use other sources to generate electricity.

Again a nine months evaluation revealed a 3-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians that use alternative sources of power supply from Q2to Q3 and a subsequent 3% increase from Q3 to Q4. In addition, Q3 which recorded the highest proportion of respondents that claimed they had no power supply (17%) also recorded the lowest proportion of respondents that use alternate sources of power supply.

In order to measure the level of awareness of Nigerians 2on the reforms in the power sector, respondents were asked: Are you aware that the Federal Government is making efforts to reform the power sector?Findings revealed the level of awareness has remained relatively constant over Q4with an average of 79%.

Again a comparison of the result obtained from in nine months revealed the same level of awareness in Q2(64%) and Q3 and a 15-points increase in the awareness of the power reforms from Q3 to Q4 (79%)representing the highest level of awareness.

Finally, respondents were asked: How do you feel about these on-going power reforms? Results obtained in the Q4 revealed that 70% (52% +18%) of Nigerians are hopeful about the on-going reforms. This if followed by 19% that are indifferent and a meager 11% that claim to be dissatisfied with the reforms in the power sector.

A nine months trend analysis revealed that the 4th quarter (70%: 52%+18%) had the highest percentage of Nigerians who are hopeful about the power reforms. Also there was an 8-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians that are hopeful about the power sector reforms from Q3 (62%: 16%+46%) to Q4 (70%: 18%+52%). This rise in hope may have been stimulated by the conclusion of the privatization process aimed at transforming the power sector.

In conclusion, findings from the Q4 power poll have revealed that majority; Av:45% (31% +14%) of Nigerians reported power supply remains bad or has worsened, Av:33%(30% +3%) indicated some improvement and Av:22% reported no difference in power supply. More findings revealed that an average majority (46%) of Nigerians receive 1-4 hours of continuous power supply daily and 81% of Nigerians use alternative power sources to generate electricity. Furthermore, the majority of Nigerians (70%) are hopeful about on-going reforms in the Power Sector. Findings have shown that the last phase of the privatization process has stimulated great expectations about the power sector reforms among the majority of Nigerians. Due to past and current challenges faced in the power sector, the total reformation may be a gradual process with a succession of milestones to be achieved. One of which would be the increase of total power currently being generated which will directly result in improved power supply to households.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted within a 12 month period covering January to December 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample of 12,000+ phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%.

NOIPolls Limited, No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.