In a different time, Annihilation would have been an A-level theatrical event. It’s a decently-budgeted ($40 million) sci-fi horror movie with a buzzy cast (Natalie Portman, Tessa Thompson, Gina Rodriguez, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Tuva Novotny, Oscar Isaac and Benedict Wong) from an acclaimed director (Alex Garland). The film, based on a well-received recent sci-fi novel, arrived onto the scene with mostly rave reviews while containing any number of water-cooler moments and strong performances by its nearly all-female cast. Yet, in this specifically challenging theatrical environment, the mere $11m debut weekend isn’t just a relative failure, but an all-too-predictable disappointment.

Much of the talk about the movie has been centered on Paramount/Viacom Inc.’s decision to sell the movie’s international rights to Netflix, where it will debut on March 12 in much of the world save for North America, China and maybe a few other markets. It is Paramount's second high-profile deal of this nature, following their last-minute handover of Bad Robot’s Cloverfield prequel The Cloverfield Paradox which took place so quickly that the streaming giant was able to drop a teaser during the Super Bowl and then debut the film itself right after the game ended. Sadly, the surprise release was the best thing about it.

And Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, currently in production, began life as a Paramount picture before they got cold feet after Silence flopped. So that $140 million(!) mob drama, starring Robert De Niro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, will be another high-profile Netflix title. It is tempting to look at these choices as Paramount essentially giving up in the realm of higher-end prestige pictures in favor of Terminator reboots and Sonic the Hedgehog movies. But the last few years have shown a brutal “new normal” in the realm of theatrical moviegoing. Among the major studios, it is Paramount that has struggled the most to adjust.

Had 2016 been a better overall year for Paramount, then the “for the love of the game” year-end prestige play like the hilariously noncommercial Silence wouldn’t have been that big of a deal. It’s not like anyone should have seriously expected a three-hour, R-rated, very grim, slow tone poem about missionaries being tortured and tested in 1670 Japan to become a blowout hit even if it had earned a bunch of Oscar nominations. But 2016 was a terrible year for Paramount, while 2017 was even worse.

Long story short, they dropped a bunch of old-school studio programmers (Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, etc.) that disappointed or flamed out while adults went to see the comic book superhero movies like Deadpool and the talking animal toons like The Secret Life of Pets right alongside their kids. While the adults either saw Rogue One with their kids or without the kids on their once-a-month movie date night, they also chose to watch stuff like The Nice Guys on VOD or via Redbox or ignored such fare entirely in favor of Netflix, VOD or prestige TV shows. Their two unmitigated hits in 2016 were 10 Cloverfield Laneand Arrival, so it’s saying something that the 2018 equivalents of both of those flicks ended up as glorified Netflix originals.

To be fair, their tentpoles haven't done much better in the last two years. Star Trek Beyond and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows underwhelmed in 2016 while Ghost in the Shell and Transformers: The Last Knight disappointed in 2017. Even Daddy’s Home 2 and Baywatch couldn’t make enough in 2017 to justify their $65m-$70m budgets. Their only outright hit in 2017 was xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, which bombed in North America but made $346m worldwide on an $85m budget. Fair or not, Paramount’s 2018 fate rests entirely with Tom Cruise's Mission: Impossible Fallout and the Transformers prequel Bumblebee.

Here’s where the tragedy comes in. As much as the media and various bloggers like to shout “Make better movies!” whenever the subject of declining ticket sales come up, Paramount’s 2016 slate was actually pretty decent. Fences was great. Arrival was great. I liked Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows a little more than you and Star Trek Beyond a little less than you, but neither deserved to flop. Silence, Everybody Wants Some, 10 Cloverfield Lane, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, 13 Hours and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot were varying degrees of “pretty good." The third xXx was better than the eighth Fast and Furious. Downsizing was pretty darn good and mother! is a modern classic. Give or take some genuine stinkers, the movies were good, but the audience was gone.

Speaking of which, Paramount did release Darren Aranofsky’s mother!, a whacked-out future classic that earned rave reviews, an F from CinemaScore and a bunch of Razzie nominations from folks who clearly saw far fewer lousy movies in 2017 than you did. Meanwhile, the audience (understandably) flocked to It, a big-scale (and comparatively safe) adaptation of a beloved Stephen King novel and cult classic ABC miniseries. We say we want original studio and unique pictures, but IP still wins out every time. That would be okay if there was enough audience to support both the (often quite good) tentpoles and the studio programmers, but that’s increasingly not the case outside of the long-legged Oscar contenders.

Adults are not shunning adult entertainment, but they are shunning adult entertainment at the multiplex. The modern tentpole has become a dangerous feat of cross-generational engineering whereby the MCU flick or the Fast/Furious sequel has really become a one-size-fits-all offering. Since adults can get a deluge of good-to-great adult-skewing entertainment via cable, streaming and VOD, be it the movies they ignored in theaters or quality episodic television, the theatrical adult movie now faces a massive uphill battle. To survive today, especially if you’re not a tentpole, you almost have to either be a kids flick that adults can enjoy (Jumanji) or an adult movie that kids can enjoy (Greatest Showman).

It’s not just Paramount that is suffering from this new normal. Sony is drowning in Jumanji money but suffered three high-quality adult movies (Only the Brave, Roman J. Israel, Esq. and All the Money in the World) stiffing despite good reviews, big movie stars and/or strong media coverage. Walt Disney is the king of tentpole franchise fare, but even they couldn’t turn The Finest Hours or Queen of Katwe into hits and seem to be sending their non-tentpole stuff (like Magic Camp) to their streaming service. Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc and New Line comedy fare like Game Night, that five years ago might have opened above $20 million and legged it to $100m, is now lucky to open above $16m and make it to $50m domestic.

Paramount isn’t blameless (Downsizing and Monster Trucks were much too expensive), but this is the new normal that existed for Annihilation last weekend. The mid-budget, star-driven, concept-specific old-school movie, which was Hollywood’s bread and butter of the studio system for a lifetime, is becoming an endangered species. Audiences are opting to see such flicks at home or ignore them for televised content. I understand the general consumer only seeing familiar franchise fare in theaters and seeing everything else at home, especially with high ticket prices, babysitting expenses, inconsistent theatrical exhibition quality and the convenience of at-home viewing.

But the dirt-cheap at-home option, however reasonable it has become for the majority of would-be moviegoers, comes at a high price. It's ghastly news for those who want to see movies like Annihilation on the big screen. It's grim news for studios like Paramount (which watched Marvel go to Disney, DreamWorks Animation go to Fox and then Comcast and now only has Transformers, Star Trek and the Mission: Impossible series) that don't have a stockpile of established IP. Hollywood spent 15 years conditioning audiences to think of the multiplex as the place to see only the biggest movies, and now, thanks to TV, streaming, home theater systems and inconsistent theatrical experiences, the consumers are heeding their advice.

Annihilation had great reviews, a fine cast and a strong high-concept premise. It also never had a chance.

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