Warren: The big questions about Erik Karlsson's future with the Senators

When National Hockey League free agency opens at noon on Canada Day, the clock could also very well strike midnight on Erik Karlsson’s sensational career with the Ottawa Senators.

We don’t know exactly what Senators general manager Pierre Dorion will offer Karlsson in terms of a contract extension, but, if the Senators captain doesn’t see what he likes, the door will immediately open to a blockbuster trade.

Accordingly, question No. 1 for free-agency fanatics is: If a trade is indeed in the works, is Las Vegas big enough for two stars named Karlsson?

The moment word leaked out Friday that Doughty and the Kings had agreed on terms for an eight-year, $88 million U.S. extension — remember, nothing can officially happen until at least noon Sunday — we thought back to a November afternoon in Brooklyn.

Following a Senators workout, two reporters asked Karlsson about potential future compensation for himself and Doughty, who could also have become an unrestricted free agent in 2019.

As much as Karlsson and Doughty compete on the ice and go head-to-head in voting for the Norris Trophy presented to the NHL’s top defenceman, there’s mutual respect for what each does and for his relative value in the marketplace.

At that time, Karlsson said he and Doughty would likely share notes.

“It depends how well you know a person and what situation you’re in,” Karlsson said. “We’re in a fairly similar boat and, again, when it comes down to it, I’m sure we’re going to have discussions about what we’re thinking and what we’re going to do. It’s a business that we’re in and we (need to) get treated like we’re a business and we’re going to treat everybody else like it’s a business, too.”

Question No. 2: If the Kings are handing Doughty the businessman an average of $11 million per season for eight years, are the Senators prepared to go anywhere near that for Karlsson the businessman?

The best indication from the Senators so far was what owner Eugene Melnyk told season-ticket holders at the first of his town hall meetings in April.

“If it’s a question of dollars, there are teams that can outgun us five to one,” Melnyk said. “There’s only so far you can go, but we’re going to go as far as we can.”

Keep in mind that Karlsson, in that same late November interview, suggested he would not accept a “hometown” discount to stay in Ottawa.

“When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going,” he said.

Karlsson did, however, express plenty of positive sentiments about the Ottawa community.

“I like it here, I’m comfortable here, I’ve been here my whole career,” he said. “It’s something that I invested all my time in and something I would like to see all the way through. But, at the end of the day, when it comes down to it, if it’s not the right fit and it’s not going to work out business-wise, then you’re going to have to look elsewhere because that’s what (owners) are going to do, as well.”

Question No. 3: Is there anything in the environment that has changed drastically enough that Karlsson would stay for reasons beyond money?

Well, the Senators have traded Mike Hoffman, which makes the dressing room less awkward.

In early May, Karlsson’s wife, Melinda, made an application for a peace bond against Hoffman’s fiancée, Monika Caryk, alleging a campaign of online harassment.

The Senators are also embarking on a rebuild, leaning towards playing as many prospects as possible, which will undoubtedly result in a smaller payroll.

While attending Friday’s development camp scrimmage, Senators head coach Guy Boucher said, “If we can, we will have a young guy on every line.”

The New Jersey Devils proved last season that it was possible to have success by filling the lineup with talented, speedy rookies. If, however, Karlsson’s goal is to play on a front-running team that could compete for a Stanley Cup immediately, his chances would be better elsewhere.

That leads to question No. 4, an almost impossible, no-win situation for Dorion: If the Senators and Karlsson reach the mutual conclusion that it won’t work here, what can the team possibly receive in a trade that would ease the sting even a little?

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