NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers

Kudos to the Lakers for overachieving thus far but things are beginning to slip away some due to key injuries. Their recent four-game road trip produced a 1-3 ATS mark and if we push back to November 18, the number becomes 3-7 ATS. That date is significant because it was their first game without starting point guard D’Angelo Russell. From there, LA has dealt with a three-game span in which they were without starting forward Julius Randle due to a hip injury. And three games ago they lost starting guard Nick Young for a month (strained calf). Jose Calderon is also out leaving sixth man Lou Williams as the team's main scorer. Clarkson, Williams and Marcelo Huertas can divide up the minutes at point guard but the cluster of injuries to the backcourt can be preyed upon by opponents. Utah should be able to not only exploit the backcourt but also the small forward spot. Lakers starter Luol Deng and rookie Brandon Graham figure to have their hand full with top scorer Gordon Heyward. LA has no other small forwards since Larry Nance Jr. is nursing a knee Read more

Indiana has no business as double digit chalk right now, even against the worst team in the NBA. Don’t listen to my word – let Paul George tell you himself: “We’re all out of whack. There’s no trust, there’s no chemistry, there’s no belief. We’re kind of just lifeless right now.”

This team bought into Frank Vogel’s message throughout his tenure as Indiana’s head coach. The first few weeks of the Nate McMillan era hasn’t produced anywhere near that same level of internal chemistry. McMillan is trying to cobble together cohesive rotations following an offseason of significant personnel turnover, with a new point guard in Jeff Teague, a new starting wing in Thaddeus Young, and a new top scorer off the bench in Al Jefferson, among others.

The betting markets recognized those names; guys with a recent track history of success elsewhere, and have been convinced that the Pacers are primed to be a team on the rise. But those big name veterans aren’t playing a lick of Read more

The NBA regular season concludes on Wednesday. A few things were determined last night like Cleveland notching the top seed in the Eastern Conference and thus Toronto now locked into the second seed. The spots for the third through sixth seeds are still TBD. Indiana is in position for the seventh seed while Detroit looks likely it will be facing the Cavs in the first round.

The top four seeds in the Western Conference have been filled: Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles Clippers. The remainder of the West is hazy. Portland, Memphis, and Dallas are in but could finish a number of ways. And with Utah losing to the Mavs, Houston now has the inside track on the eighth seed -- assuming the Rockets can beat Sacramento's corpse on Wednesday. If they lose and Utah beats the Lakers, the Jazz get in.

NBA Gambling: Western Conference playoff race heats up

In the battle of who wants it more (or less), five teams continue to fight for the final four spots in the Western Conference playoffs. Portland is currently sixth with a two-game lead over Houston, Utah, and Dallas. Bettors should also keep an eye on Memphis who has lost four straight and seen its hold of the fifth seed dwindle to two games. Let's take a look at the remaining schedules for all five teams. Houston has arguably the most favorable slate with its last four games coming against teams not in the playoff hunt.

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets

It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Houston Rockets in any pointspread range where they’ll need to win the game in order to cover the number. It’s been a long, disappointing season for the JB Bickerstaff’s squad, fighting for the #8 seed in the West just one year after reaching the Western Conference Finals.

Wednesday Night’s home loss to Utah was the latest frustrating defeat for Houston, as they blew an 18 point second half lead, losing on a last second dunk by Derrick Favors. The loss marked Houston’s third consecutive defeat, and fifth in their last seven games. Their only two wins during this two week span have come against lowly Minnesota (they still didn’t cover the spread in victory) and Memphis when the Grizzlies had only one starter healthy enough to play. This is not a confident team; nor are they a good team. Bickerstaff’s post-game quote following the meltdown against the Jazz didn’t inspire much confidence in this bettor either: “The season’s not over Read more

The NBA All Star Game is in the rear view mirror now, leaving bettors with a two month window between now and the beginning of the Playoffs. Just about every team has approximately thirty games remaining on their regular season schedule. The Warriors remain the favorite to win the title when June rolls around, with Cleveland and San Antonio also priced in a 3:1 or lower range to win the championship.

But if you’ve been reading my Wiseguy Report for the last decade, you know that I’m not a big fan of future book wagers. This week’s article isn’t going to recommend a change that long term betting philosophy. In my opinion, the real money to be made betting the NBA is to find the teams that are being priced incorrectly by the betting markets and bet on (or against) those teams repeatedly; in every reasonable situation, until the betting markets catch up.

I’m going to focus on the Western Conference this week; next week I’ll break down the East. As we come out of the break, I’ve identified my top ‘Bet-On’ team down the stretch for the West – the Denver Nuggets. This Read more

NBA Handicapping: Another game, another lackluster effort by the Sacramento Kings

You gotta love the Sacramento Kings. In the postgame presser following last night's 109-97 loss to New Orleans -- the Kings were laying as high as -8.6 before closing -6.5 -- the phrase "effort" was used like 40 times. When DeMarcus Cousins is calling you out for not playing hard you know it was a gold old fashion tank job. The Kings will have a chance for redemption with tonight's road tilt at Utah. Bettors have already hit the total down from 202 to as low as 200.

"Not giving multiple efforts, not playing out defensive schemes – effort. Effort." (When asked if it's a lead my example thing that he can set and get guys to follow) "I can take the blame; I did a poor job of not speaking up in the beginning. I can take the blame for that – I should've spoken up in the beginning, and I didn't."

"I honestly can't tell you. Effort – that's all it is, effort." (On how frustrating it is when they've talked so much about not having letdowns like this) "It's been our problem all year. We're all talk right

NBA Gambling: Utah Jazz allow 100+ in three straight games without Gobert

The Utah Jazz continue to press forward without the services of defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Gobert has missed the last three games as Utah allowed 114, 119 (OT), and 103. Last night, Sacramento shot 55.8% en route to a 114-106 victory. On the season, Utah is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS without Gobert. Four of the five games have gone over the total. The Jazz are -3.5 home favorites vs. New York tonight.

"It's going to be 100 percent," he said. "I'm not going to be back if it's not 100 percent. This type of injury, it's not like a sprained ankle when you can come back with a little bit of pain. It's a ligament. So if I'm not 100 percent, I won't come back."

Gobert added, "It's painful not to be able to play, but I'd rather miss a couple games more and be sure and not miss four more months because it's not healed and I get hurt again."

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets

My clients and I have cashed back-to-back winners this week against the dead team walking known as the Denver Nuggets and I have no reservations looking to get paid for a third straight time this evening. The Nuggets are shot in every sense of the word: physically, mentally and emotionally. They are 2-17 SU in their last 19 games including an 8-game home losing streak. One of those two wins was in LA when the Lakers were returning home from a long Eastern Conference road trip. There is a lot of angst between the players and head coach Brian Shaw who is somehow still employed. Denver shopped star Ty Lawson around at the trade deadline but ultimately didn't pull the trigger, and the disgruntled star was benched in the first game after the break for failing to return to the team in a timely manner. Utah missed a golden opportunity to secure its first three-game winning streak in over a year when it blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. Prior to that, we’d seen some real good play from the Jazz with a 6-3-1 ATS run and wins against playoff teams Portland and San Read more

NBA Handicapper Free Play: New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets

The Rockets failed to cover the spread in all four meetings against the Pelicans last year. I’m not expecting Houston to match up any better against New Orleans in their first meeting of the 2014-15 campaign.

Houston is coming off a hard fought OT win in the Mile High altitude of Denver last night. Every starter played at least 42 minutes; while only two reserves got more than seven minutes of floor time. Expect a relatively sluggish showing here. The Rockets haven’t been able to by margin in any recent back-2-back situation, even when they were fresher than they are tonight. The Kings took them to overtime in their last back-2-back set. They beat slumping Phoenix by only five in their try before that. And we saw the Rockets worst loss of the year – by 26 at Memphis – on the second night of back-2-backs last month.

This is a very easy trip for New Orleans, just a single road game with short travel to Houston. And New Orleans has really found some excellent offensive rhythm over the Read more

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