So wait. Ukranians were openly treating ethnic Russians like shit, with the backing of those in power, then those in power get forcibly ousted and now ethnic Russians in Ukraine are getting scared and calling their big brother in to help?

If that's what's going on - and I'm not sure that's it, I haven't had time to really follow this story - then this is a really fucked up no-win situation. The only thing Russia could possibly do would be to offer repatriation to all of the Russians in Ukraine. And that would probably break their economy, as those refugees (for lack of a better term that means the exact same thing but without all the negative connotations attached) would be a massive drain on an economy that's already teetering on the brink.

At least this is a pretty good explanation of the timing behind Russian leadership coming out as being anti-gay to the point of extremism. Compared to Russia's stance on homosexuality, a little neighborly invasion isn't sparking NEARLY as much worldwide controversy.

- I'm not Jesus, but I can turn water into Kool-Aid.- A Sergeant in motion outranks an officer who doesn't know what the hell is going on.- A demolitions specialist at a flat run outranks everybody.

So wait. Ukranians were openly treating ethnic Russians like shit, with the backing of those in power, then those in power get forcibly ousted and now ethnic Russians in Ukraine are getting scared and calling their big brother in to help?

Actually the last president was trying to defuse tensions that had existed since the fall of the USSR, so he expanded some of their rights. Now those rights, among others, have been taken away.

I would say they are being opportunistic, not just scarred. They don't like being in Ukraine much and they see a chance to leave that country and join Russia now with the government in chaos.

The only thing Russia could possibly do would be to offer repatriation to all of the Russians in Ukraine

It could take those provinces that have a Russian majority, since well those provinces ( especially Crimea which is autonomous ) want to be part of Russia.

Who is going to stop them exactly? NATO when a third of the EU's gas comes from Russia, yeah a war with Russia would be quite popular at home in an EU which has experienced serious economic hardship, and the US won't go in alone.

Ukraine? Laughable, despite the media bullshit the Ukranian army is weak, badly equipped and badly trained. The Georgians were in a far better shape when they took on Russia and they lost in days.

Furthermore given how the new leadership came to power some parts of the army are defecting.

Io.Draco wrote:Ukraine? Laughable, despite the media bullshit the Ukranian army is weak, badly equipped and badly trained. The Georgians were in a far better shape when they took on Russia and they lost in days.

Furthermore given how the new leadership came to power some parts of the army are defecting.

KysenMurrin wrote:There are also significant populations in those regions who do not want to join Russia...

True, but close to 80% of all Crimeans are native Russian speakers. I don't expect any armed conflict until the referendum in Crimea on the 30th of March where I suspect it will ask to join Russia or at least be an independent country by an overwhelming majority.

EDIT: Or who knows we might see the war itself start in just 2 hours when the Russian ultimatum to Ukranian forces in Crimea expires.

Io.Draco wrote:True, but close to 80% of all Crimeans are native Russian speakers. I don't expect any armed conflict until the referendum in Crimea on the 30th of March where I suspect it will ask to join Russia or at least be an independent country by an overwhelming majority.

Crimea has only 58% russians. They also have no legal standing to secede on their own. Finally, Crimea has 12% crimean tatars, who live no other place and have every reason to detest russians.

I said Russian speakers, not ethnic Russians, there's quite a difference between the two. Being ethnic Ukranian or Tatar doesn't mean you can't use Russian as your primary language. Close to 90% of Crimeans voted for Yanukovich.

The Tatars are also divided, despite media beliefs there are a number of them who don't support the government in Kiev. Of course most are against Russia due to fears there will be discrimination against them. Putin should extend an olive branch to them, unless he is stupid to actually discriminate against them.

As for legal standing, the Crimean parliament has no legal standing either. What with them taking power in a coup ( and yes it was a coup when they forced the president to flee using armed force after tearing up the deal the opposition leaders had made with him ), replacing Supreme Court judges and passing laws while being threatened by armed far right members just outside the Parliament building who stand guard 24/7.

Currently Russia appears to be simultaneously claiming they were invited to send in the troops to protect people, and that they haven't actually sent any troops and the forces in Crimea are local self-defense groups.

Shoju wrote:Putin just seems like a crazy man, the more that I read. I'm just not sure what to make of the guy.

On the contrary his moves are very well calculated considering what he wants to do in Ukraine.

A crazy man would already have tanks rolling through Kiev by now, but that's not happened has it? Putin took over Crimea while avoiding firing a single shot at the Ukranian troops. Kinda amusing really because he has outmaneuvered the west twice: First it was by invading which many thought would not happen and then second by doing so without actually firing shots and by limiting action to Crimea, for now at least.

KysenMurrin wrote:Currently Russia appears to be simultaneously claiming they were invited to send in the troops to protect people, and that they haven't actually sent any troops and the forces in Crimea are local self-defense groups.

This is classic Russian doctrine. They hack the communications infrastructure in the target area to prevent word of what is actually going on from getting out too much, and then flood the news with a bunch of confusing and competing narratives so that nobody has any clear idea what is happening. Plus they defeat expectations by behaving unpredictably.

It's hard for the US to counter their moves if there is a reasonable doubt as to what is actually occurring.

Theckhd wrote:big numbers are the in-game way of expressing that Brekkie's penis is huge.

Shoju wrote:Putin just seems like a crazy man, the more that I read. I'm just not sure what to make of the guy.

On the contrary his moves are very well calculated considering what he wants to do in Ukraine.

A crazy man would already have tanks rolling through Kiev by now, but that's not happened has it? Putin took over Crimea while avoiding firing a single shot at the Ukranian troops. Kinda amusing really because he has outmaneuvered the west twice: First it was by invading which many thought would not happen and then second by doing so without actually firing shots and by limiting action to Crimea, for now at least.

But a crazy man wouldn't deny invading.

At least in conversations with UK / US journalists, he swears up and down that he has ordered ZERO troops into Crimea.

At least in conversations with UK / US journalists, he swears up and down that he has ordered ZERO troops into Crimea.

Because he wants to make some people believe that his troops are not occupying Crimea The message is not meant for you or me, or anyone in the west. It's meant for people in the east, in particular Russians.

Some suggest that perhaps he was hoping the Ukranians would resist thus giving him a pretext in that he would say there is armed conflict in Crimea and he has to roll the regular army in.

Klaudandus wrote:I just remembered we're dependent of Russia for space flights to the ISS...

WE don't have to be. Musk is in the final stages of testing on his manned Dragon X, and feels he could be ready for manned trips to the ISS relatively quickly. If we needed to not be dependent on Russia, It could be done faster.