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Sunday, January 17, 2016

The (Mis)Adventures of Vladdipus Rex, Episode 60 & 61

The
(Mis)Adventures of Vladdipus Rex, Episode 60 – Snakes on a Plane:
And so it happens, dear reader, that in a world growing more delirious by the
day, the day came when Russia
was accused of deliberately targeting civilians in Syria. Indeed, the “UK foreign
secretary condemns tactics of Russian pilots, saying they are running return
raids on targets to hit rescue workers.” But having allowed things to
deteriorate to this point, what can a UK or a US do but accuse and condemn and
keep turning their backs on it all hoping that it could all somehow go away on
its own? Yet, and as the old saying goes: when you start by wringing your hands
you end by chewing your fingers.

The
(Mis)Adventures of Vladdipus Rex, Episode 61 – The Secret Clause:For
it comes to mind, dear reader, as one hears of the
secret clause embedded in the treaty that King Vlad The Clutch signed so
many months ago with his Syrian counterpart President Assad The Pug, that not
too long ago after the signing a certain prodemocracy activist, known for the
irreverent style and intuitive nature of his analysis, made the
following two assertions/predictions. The first explained the nature of
Vladdipus Rex’s (mis)adventure in Syria as follows:

…the real reason behind Putin’s
move into Syria is not any sort of values affinity with Assad. Putin is here
repeating what he previously did in Crimea and is still trying to do in Eastern
Ukraine: take over and secure a territory that holds strategic significance for
Russia. Russia has for long maintained a military base in the coastal city of
Tartus, one which it updated and modernized shortly before the onset of the
Syrian Revolution in March 2011.

This newest venture is not simply
about safeguarding this base. Now that the Obama Administration has repeatedly
shown how strongly it is committed to minimizing America’s military footprint
in the world, Mr. Putin sees an opportunity for expanding and strengthening
Russia’s presence along the Mediterranean, and for ensuring that the future of
that presence is not dependent on anyone’s goodwill but is assured through
Russian military might.

The second warned of the
consequences that Vladdie The High Roller had to contend with:

Still, there will be long-term
repercussions for Putin in Russia as a result of his adventure in Syria.
Everything from car bombings or lone wolf attacks in Moscow and St. Petersburg
and wherever Russia has a presence abroad, to full-scale rebellions in certain
Muslim-majority provinces and republics within the Russian Federation could be
on the menu. But these potential developments are not things about which Putin
seems to be worried at this early stage: the prize he is after seems to be worth
the risk for him. It is here where he could be miscalculating.

Now, with the
bombing of the Russian plane over Sinai behind us, and with these new
revelations before us, dear reader, we have to acknowledge that Syria has been
bought and sold with an official contract and lies now under Russian hegemony
until Russia wishes otherwise. For while the document theoretically allows for
Assad the Fickle to ask for termination of the contract, given Vladdie one year
to comply, the latter’s fondness of Polonialism (See
The Deliricon under P) could mute such an eventuality.

Among other
revelations inthe
seven-page contractdated Aug. 26, 2015, the Kremlin has made an open-ended
time commitment to its military deployment in Syria, and either side can
terminate it with a year’s notice.

Russian
military personnel and shipments can pass in and out of Syria at will and
aren’t subject to controls by Syrian authorities, the document says. Syrians
can’t enter Russian bases without Russia’s permission. And Russia disclaims any
responsibility for damage caused by its activities inside Syria.

The decades
when we thought of Europe as stable, predictable and dull are over. The
continent’s map is becoming medieval again, if not yet in its boundaries then
at least in its political attitudes and allegiances. The question today is
whether the EU can still hope to permanently replace the multicultural Habsburg
Empire, which for centuries sprawled across Central and Eastern Europe and
sheltered its various minorities and interests. The answer will depend not only
on what Europe itself does but also on what the U.S. chooses to do. Geography
is a challenge, not a fate.

First, it
imposed economic sanctions. Then it attacked Erdogan’s inner circle, including
in the media his son Bilal, accusing them of trading oil with Islamic State.
And in the ultimate gesture of hostility, Russia invited Selahattin Demirtas,
leader of Turkey’s Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP, to Moscow… So
Putin just very publicly took sides in Turkey’s civil war, much as he feels
Western countries did during Russia’s Chechen wars…

As with the
U.S. sanctions policy towards Russia, Putin probably hasn’t set a goal of
toppling Erdogan from power any time soon. For the foreseeable future, the
Turkish strongman is as safely entrenched in office as is Putin. Like the U.S.,
though, Putin seems to have dug in for a long-term policy of sapping Turkey’s economy
and undermining Erdogan politically. What isn’t clear is whether the goal is to
teach the U.S. and its allies to mend their ways, or to split them over whether
to defend NATO ally Turkey, or to join Russia in distancing themselves from its
increasingly authoritarian Islamist government.

Go ahead, patronize me!

About Ammar

Ammar Abdulhamid is a Syrian-American author and pro-democracy activist based in Silver Spring, Maryland. He is the founder of the Tharwa Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to democracy promotion. His personal website and entries from his older blogs can be accessed here.

The Delirica

The Delirica is a companion blog to the Daily Digest of Global Delirium meant to highlight certain DDGD items by publishing them as separate posts. Also, the Delirica republishes articles by Ammar that appeared on other sites since 2016. Older articles can be found on Ammar's internet archive: Ammar.World