No need to fret over Duncan’s poor shooting — yet

SAN ANTONIO — One game does not make a season. Particularly when you’ve played nearly 1,400 of them.

Indeed, thorough studies on the vagaries of guiding a leather ball through a small metal hoop elevated above the ground indicate that even 10 games are a completely unreliable sample size.

As such, neither Tim Duncan’s nightmarish shooting night on Wednesday against the Wizards (1 for 12, the worst showing of his illustrious career), or the fact that he’s currently shooting just 38.6 percent through seven games should be cause for significant alarm.

It’s ridiculously early, and the Spurs are still 8-1. (Incidentally, their lone defeat coincided with Duncan’s best game, 24 points on 12-for-23 shooting against Portland.)

No longer the low-post force he once was, Duncan’s perimeter-oriented styles makes him increasingly vulnerable to swoons. Last season he endured the following slumps:

31.7 percent, three games
39.5 percent, three games
40.5 percent, six games
41.0 percent, six games (playoffs)
39.7 percent, four games (playoffs)

Duncan ended up shooting 50.2 percent for the year, and 47 percent during the playoffs while becoming one of the oldest players in league history to earn All-NBA honors.

So, just in case the point isn’t sinking in, we’ll spell it out: With almost 90 percent of the regular season yet to be played, there’s absolutely no reason to panic.

Yet.

For all the necessary context, there’s one nagging concern, like a pebble in one of his size 16 Adidas Big Fundamentals: Duncan will turn 38 this spring, a point where virtually all of his historic peers outside Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Karl Malone were either retired or shells of themselves.

It’s hard to imagine the bottom could have finally fallen out only five months removed from his 25-point half in Game 6 of the Finals, particularly given his low-impact, skill-oriented style of play. But age is a finicky, dangerous thing. Father Time was already beaten off once, with Duncan’s resurgence after knee problems seemed to portend his decline in 2010-11. He might not be so forgiving a second time around.

The good news for Duncan: He’s generally getting quality looks. Indeed, he’s taking a higher percentage of shots at the rim (42.2) than he has since 2007-08.

Now, the unsettling part: He’s converting just 54.3 percent of those shots, roughly 10 points below last season’s league average and almost nine points below his lowest mark in seven seasons tracked by Hoops Data.

But wait, there’s more!

According to NBA.com’s new SportVU player tracking data, Duncan ranks:

* 23rd out of 25 players averaging at least five catch-and-shoot attempts per game at 27.8 percent
* 71st out of 72 players averaging at least two close-range points per game at 35.3 percent

Add it all up, and you have the barren landscape that is Duncan’s shot chart.

Again, at a point of the season where one performance can still skew the statistics, it’s completely reasonable to expect Duncan will bounce back at some point. His teammates think it’s only a matter of time.

“I don’t worry about Tim,” Tony Parker said after Wednesday’s game. “He’s taking great shots and he needs to keep shooting.”

Said Danny Green, “I have no concern whatsoever. People go through slumps where they miss shots. Trust me, I know.”