The math of compound growth leads to absurdities (one human for every square meter of land surface by the year 2750 at our current rate of population increase) and to tragedy.

Willy De Backer's insight:

Brilliant essay by Richard Heinberg on the need for planned degrowth. "...while climate change is the mega-crisis of our time, carbon is not our only nemesis. If global warming threatens to undermine civilization, so do topsoil, freshwater, and mineral depletion. These may just take a little longer."

Population should come back as a major world priority. There’s a need for the world as a whole to support families and governments in high-fertility countries improve access to contraception and education.

Willy De Backer's insight:

Very good article by Andrew Revkin on the global population challenge.

Improbably, the global economy has returned to growth over the past four years despite the ravages of a deflationary debt collapse, a punishing oil shock, ongoing constraint from debt and deleveraging...

Willy De Backer's insight:

Excellent article at Peak Prosperity by Gregor Macdonald explaining how increased use of coal and gas is restarting growth in the global economy after the oil crash and what it will mean for future investments when global net energy per capita is in decline.

A renowned former physics professor at the University of Colorado Boulder who was famous for a lecture he delivered over 1,700 times died on Saturday at the age of 90. According to The Daily Camera, he had been diagnosed with lymphoma.

Willy De Backer's insight:

Death of one of the world's greatest sustainability thinkers - "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

"Egypt’s resource crisis is more than the primary driver of its own collapse: It could potentially destabilize the entire region, if not the world."

Willy De Backer's insight:

Must-read article on the crisis in Egypt and the Middle East. Nafeez Ahmed is one of the few analysts who is able and willing to understand the nexus between the economic, the ecological and the energy crises.

Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated “good” by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don’t have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting up a “solution” that is at best temporary.

"There are strong grounds for believing that the climate crisis can be overcome and that many people’s lives, particularly in the poorer countries, could be materially better than they are now because of the work the production of biofuels and biochemicals to replace their fossil equivalents should bring, coupled with the additional fertility that biochar should create. Since the alternative is industrial and societal decline and, after increasing unrest, an eventual collapse, there’s every reason to think the system will incline the right way. But one thing is necessary first: the twin myths that there’s plenty of energy and that economic growth can continue must be exposed."

Willy De Backer's insight:

Long but brilliant analysis connecting the ecological, economic and energy crises. Maybe a bit too optimistic in their belief that our elites and institutions will be smart enough to prevent collapse but worth reading.

US economic growth will be less than 1% in the next fourty years according to a new analysis by famous American investor Jeremy Grantham. The contrarian investor sees resource scarcity and higher resource prices as well as demographic factors as the main reason why our global economies will continue to struggle for new economic growth.

As always the gloomy predictions of Mr Grantham's piece make a lot of sense but will be neglected by the "don't worry, be happy" myopic political and economic elites.

"City leaders aspiring to transform their cities into models of sustainability must look beyond city limits and include in their calculation the global flow of goods and materials into their realm, argue researchers in the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences journal Ambio."

Interesting analysis: if we look at the total footprint of cities, how sustainable are they really? Is urbanisation really the key to future sustainability? And what about the social sustainability of cities in a world of increasing inequality?

To the extent that degrowth is an involuntary process then another set of issues arise – will the society and economy withstand the process without catastrophic breakdowns and what can the many kinds of projects and policies described in this book do to make energy descent a survivable process for the population? A great many people will be finding that their lifestyle packages are severely stressed and breaking apart and this will generate a great deal of fear and ‘negative’ emotions.

Willy De Backer's insight:

Fascinating, must-read debate between Feasta's Brian Davey and Giorgios Kallis on the framing of #degrowth. Can we manage degrowth or do we prepare for collapse?

"Ultimately, Is the Planet Full? argues that the world we live in may already be overpopulated due to our current institutional arrangements failing to adequately manage resources in an equitable and sustainable way. Goldin and colleagues highlight that counter to popular opinion “the planet may be far from full” (p.228), but only if we address key governance challenges in managing our societies, economies and environment."

Is our relentless quest for economic growth killing the planet? Climate scientists have seen the data – and they are coming to some incendiary conclusions.

Willy De Backer's insight:

Excellent Naomi Klein article in New Statesman: "our entire economic paradigm is a threat to ecological stability. And indeed that challenging this economic paradigm – through mass-movement counter-pressure – is humanity’s best shot at avoiding catastrophe"

Peak oil provides a complete worldview that sheds light on everything that's happening in the world. Those who don't understand the bell curve are condemned to follow it.

Willy De Backer's insight:

excellent analysis by Udo Bardi on the Resilience blog.

"So, is peak oil dead? Well, no. For one thing, peak oil never was just a doomer's game where players tried to guess the exact day for the end of the world. No; it was – and it still is - a fertile concept; a way of seeing the world. It taught us a lot, and it is still teaching us a lot."

"Peak oil has generated headlines in recent years, but the real threat to our future is peak water. There are substitutes for oil, but not for water. We can produce food without oil, but not without water.

We drink on average four liters of water per day, in one form or another, but the food we eat each day requires 2,000 liters of water to produce, or 500 times as much. Getting enough water to drink is relatively easy, but finding enough to produce the ever-growing quantities of grain the world consumes is another matter."

“Forward, the Light Brigade!” Was there a man dismay’d ? Not tho’ the soldier knew Some one had blunder’d: Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do & die, Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.

Willy De Backer's insight:

Great blog post by Joe Romm quoting Jeremy Grantham's latest analysis and William Ophuls new book 'Immoderate Greatness: why civilisations fail'. Should I rename the title of this ScoopIt from the 'Great Transition" to the "Great Collapse"?

"With the world’s population headed toward 9 billion at mid-century and millions of people climbing out of poverty, global energy demand could increase by as much as 80% by 2050. That’s according to Shell’s latest scenarios, which look at trends in the economy, politics and energy in considering developments over the next half a century."

Willy De Backer's insight:

In its latest New Lens scenarios, Shell recognises the existence of "ecological limits" to growth and confirms 2 degrees warming target is unreachable.

Firm and far-reaching policies can address the world's resource and environmental stresses, but the window of opportunity is shrinking. This is what emerges from a major – and timely – new report by Shell's scenarios team.

Willy De Backer's insight:

The New Lens scenarios of the Shell team will be presented on 28 February. It will be interesting to read how they transform real scary trends into narratives that will suit the company's direct business interests.

This is an absolute must-read commentary written by Jin Chen and James Galbraith explaining how rising energy and resource constraints have led to the extreme fraudulous financialisation of global economy and why austerity policies but also a return to Keynesianism will not work.

This interesting working paper written by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment concludes that "

continued economic growth is feasible and desirable, although not without significant changes in its characteristics.

These changes need to involve ultimately the reduction of the rate of material output, with continued growth in value being generated by expansion in the ‘intellectual economy’."

The Achilles heel of this thought-provoking paper lies in the fact that it starts from the fallacy that the "intellectuel economy" (the knowledge economy) has little or no material and resource implications.

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