Media will ask, where will Shaun play in 2006?

Updated 10:00 pm, Monday, January 30, 2006

It's much more than that, both in terms of metaphorical weight and bottom-line measurements.

It's millions. Plural. As in how many will the Seahawks offer the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player? As in how much is he asking for after a season in which he set the league's season touchdown record?

This story won't answer either of those questions. There are no new twists to report. No tangles to unravel. Just a little extra attention to details before the avalanche of national interpretations and apocalyptic ruminations beginning today at Super Bowl media day that this may be Alexander's final game as a Seahawk.

"You can't do any more than what I've done," Alexander said Jan. 22 after the NFC Championship Game. "I've already said everything about me wanting to be here. It just is what it is."

The season has been as polite as it has been productive, but the arrangement is not permanent. Alexander's one-year contract contains the written guarantee of unrestricted free agency if he doesn't re-sign with the team.

The issue won't be decided until more than a month from now, but it will be debated all this week, never more so than at Media Day when reporters will try to find different ways to ask, "Why in the world is it so much trouble to get the Seahawks to cut a check?"

Alexander is likely to smile and say something disarming.

"It hasn't really been trouble for me," he said. "The Seahawks as an organization have had to go through changes of presidents, vice presidents and contract people. That's just the business side of it."

And the bottom line is that no one knows the answer to the question of whether Alexander will be back next season. We can only frame the issues.

If this were national politics, the divide in opinions over his fate would be stark as red state, blue state. Opinions are entrenched. There's a factual foundation for both.

Known quantities

Payday precedent:

San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson signed a $60 million deal last season, one-third of which is guaranteed. Tomlinson is 26, two years younger than Alexander. But Alexander scored 10 more touchdowns than Tomlinson this season and 15 more than him over the past five seasons.

Running backs Clinton Portis and Deuce McAllister signed $50 million deals, but both were fairly heavy on the back end, money a player is less likely to see. Tomlinson is the gold standard in terms of running back contracts.

Production precedent:

History says running backs usually hit a speed bump in their late 20s. Some fall off a cliff entirely in their 30s.

In 2004, the Jets' Curtis Martin won the rushing title by 1 yard over Alexander, gaining 1,697 yards. He was 32, the exception to the rule. A testament to longevity. A running back who had gained 1,000 or more yards in each of his 10 seasons.

Every year until the 2005 season, that is. He gained 735 yards, missing the final three games, and now there is talk he may have to renegotiate his contract to stay with the team. He is scheduled to make more than $8 million next season.

The business end of the stick:

The reality in the NFL is a player's fortunes have a tenuous foothold. The Patriots aren't the first franchise to risk letting a player go a year too early as opposed to holding on a year too long. Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy went elsewhere once the Patriots decided not to ante up.

Jerome Bettis' heartwarming return to Detroit this week occurred only after his salary was more than halved before this season. Rod Woodson and Greg Lloyd were essential parts of the defense that took the Steelers to their last Super Bowl, after the 1995 season. Each went elsewhere, the Steelers choosing to let another team pony up a big bonus for a name free agent.

The variables

The other suitors:

The consensus around the league paints Arizona as potentially suitor for Alexander. The Cardinals are moving into a new stadium, coach Denny Green will be in his third year and the team's rushing game was abominable. They never had a player rush for 60 yards during the regular season.

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The price of success: Is it going to be an auction, Alexander's services up to the highest bidder? Or does playing behind Seattle's offensive line, one of the best in football, count for something in Alexander's calculations?

By the same token, do the Seahawks pay top dollar for a top-drawer running back or do they sacrifice a few yards for a few bucks and hope to follow in Denver's footprints of replacing highly productive running backs? The Broncos have had five different running backs rush for more than 1,000 yards over the past 11 seasons.

The pecking order:

Alexander was the league's most valuable player, but is he his team's? After all, the Seahawks chose to re-sign quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and then offensive tackle Walter Jones last offseason, decisions that came after team president Bob Whitsitt was fired and Mike Reinfeldt, the team's salary-cap expert, returned.

There was a shift in priorities. Whitsitt had failed for at least a year to complete an extension with Hasselbeck, but Reinfeldt got that deal done. Jones had missed training camp the previous three years as the Seahawks' designated franchise player, but he was re-signed.

Loose ends

Seattle has seen this sort of drama play out before.

Less than a year ago, in fact, only then the ball was spherical instead of oblong. Ray Allen and the Sonics spent a year in limbo, talking about how they were talking about a deal.

In each visiting city, someone would inevitably ask Allen if he would consider playing there. He said he would consider all options if the time came. The uncertainty pervaded the Sonics' 52-win regular season and into the second round of the playoffs.

Alexander was never even that forward, saying he was sure he would stay in Seattle instead of playing footsie with anyone feeling him out about his future.

The Sonics offered Allen as much as $70 million over five years during the season. Allen was convinced his market value was more. He was right. When he became an unrestricted free agent in July, the Clippers were one of the teams to bring a wheelbarrow of cash to his doorstep: $80 million.

The key was the relationship and rapport the Sonics and Allen built during negotiations. He wanted to stay in Seattle, the Sonics wanted to keep him. The only discrepancy was his value on the open market. Once that became clear, the Sonics ponied up.

Could a similar dynamic be at work with Alexander?

"I believe Shaun wants to stay in Seattle," coach Mike Holmgren said. "He and I talk about his future often. I know the club's position is we would like him to stay in Seattle. It has been my experience if you get that type of situation, you can usually work it out if there is some reasonableness to everybody."

And so it remains the open-ended question facing Seattle. It won't be answered over the next few days, though that certainly won't be a result of failing to ask.