~ Investment Strategy

Brazilian and Australian Growth Figures

Brazil’s growth slowed to 0% QOQ in Q3 (a.e.). The government appears committed to its inflation target (max. 6.5%) and inflation is currently above that level, so it seems unlikely that there will be any fiscal easing to help the economy in the short term. The Brazilian slowdown is likely to have an impact on Argentina, to which we are exposed through the GDP warrants. However, China, which is Argentina’s other main trading partner, remains strong, and that is evidenced in Australia’s latest GDP release, which showed faster growth in Q3 and upgraded the Q2 number. Growth was driven by the ongoing mining boom (i.e. China) and strong household consumption. It was notable that some domestic sectors showed quite large declines — Australia appears to be on Chinese life-support, which perhaps makes the AUD and the Australian stock market good proxies for Chinese growth.