February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.

La Niña weakens, almost goneA borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on recordArctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii recordA hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Quoting bappit:I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link

I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.

Quoting KoritheMan:Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(

I wouldn't count on it, the GFS shows a very lackluster severe potential for next Monday.

SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. FROM MIDWEEKON...LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE QUITE CONSIDERABLY. THE ECMWFDEPICTS A CUTOFF H5 LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SLIDESIT TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHFLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HANDKEEPS THE LOW IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE AND KEEPS IT WELL TO THENORTH. THIS MORE DYNAMIC SOLUTION SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THEFLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM DID NOT MAKE TOO MANYCHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODELCONSENSUS.

Boy if thes models pan out then FL will see a lot of rain next week. All the models are wanting to bring this UPPER LEVEL LOW across the state. If this is the case then this is a sure sign that this La-Nina wx pattern has fizzled.

...DISCUSSION... ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.

FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP D7-D8.

...DISCUSSION...ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUTMODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THISFEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONGTHE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWFSTALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYERMOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OFTHIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OFWHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOTAPPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.

FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THEGULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THETN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOMELESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UPD7-D8.

We may have already seen our peek in severe wx this season. It seems to me that we are seeing a similar set up to what we've seen in 2009 for the April thru June time frame (severe wx wise). It just seems that the theme lately has been Rex Blocks and numerous cut off of lows.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE PINE BARRENS IN NEW JERSEY.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY WARM WINTER AND EARLY SPRING... THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN AROUND THE REGION. ANY VEGETATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER A PERIOD OF THREE OR MORE HOURS WOULD BE AT RISK.

FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.

Really? I'm a little surprised that it isn't a requirement for a met. Both numerical analysis and numerical methods were met requirements when I went to Plymouth State if I recall correctly.

My advice would be to take it. If you plan on doing any sort of computational work (modeling, etc.) or intensive data analysis, it will give you a solid grounding in the essentials, including some error analysis.

Quoting bappit:I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link

I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.

I'm not really sure I've ever heard of the THC keeping western Europe warm, however it is well known the the THC is what keeps norther Europe from turning into Alaska Link. The warmer waters moderate the effect of being at such a high latitude. More recently, the warmer waters (and altered weather patterns) have been acting like a blow torch to ice formation in the Karents causing a large reduction in arctic ice formation in the region.