The Islamic Republic of Iran's sixth general elections, to be
held on 18 February, provide the next battleground in
the continuing contest between reformists and
conservatives within Iran's clerical regime.

President Khatami's victory in 1997 has opened up Iranian politics

While many observers expect reformist candidates to
win control of the new chamber from the right-wingers
who dominated the outgoing Majlis, predictions are
mixed.

The outcome may be blurred by the presence of
many new independent members whose real affiliations
may not be immediately clear.

Obstruction

President Mohammad Khatami's reform plans were often
obstructed by the outgoing parliament, which impeached
one of his key ministers and tried to do the same with
another.

If the reformists can win control of the new
Majlis, it will be an important gain for them.

But even if they do, it will not mean the end of the
struggle. A good deal of power will remain in the
hands of the conservatives, not least through their influence
over the Council of Guardians, the body which
scrutinises all legislation passed by the Majlis.

Presidential test

The elections will provide an important test of
whether the reformist movement, which scored a
stunning victory with President Khatami's surprise
landslide election in May 1997, has been able to
create a coherent vehicle to translate the national
mood for change into tangible electoral gains.

Women are being encouraged to vote

Altogether, 18 reformist groups and parties have
banded together in a coalition calling itself the "Second of Khordad Front". The name is taken from the date of
President Khatami's election victory.

The coalition includes the party most closely
associated with President Khatami, the Islamic Iran
Participation Front. Mr Khatami's younger brother,
Muhammad-Reza, heads its Politburo.

It also includes
a grouping of leftist clerics known as the Militant
Clerics Association (MRM), as well as - uneasily - the
centrist faction known as the Kargozaran or "Servants of Construction", associated with former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Ranged against them are the right-wing conservative
groupings, including the current majority
parliamentary faction, the Association of Militant
Clergy (JRM).

Battle

The actual campaigning only lasts for a week, and
stops two days before the polling on 18 February.

Much of the real battle has already taken place, in
the struggle over the qualification and elimination of
candidates by various vetting procedures, with overall
responsibility lying with the conservative-dominated
Council of Guardians.

Mr Rafsanjani cannot assume he will be speaker a third time

The final list of approved candidates will not be
announced until shortly before campaigning begins,
after appeals by disqualified candidates have been
reviewed.

But in the early stages, a total of 758 out
of the 6860 hopefuls had been provisionally ruled out,
more than half of them by the Council. Most if not all
of them were from the reformist or left-wing camps.

While there were predictable cries of indignation, the
reformists were quietly pleased that the
disqualifications were in fact much less radical than
in the past. They believed enough of their colleagues
had survived the process to enable them to gain
control of the new Majlis.

"Nobody would have believed that the Council of
Guardians would qualify me - but they did," said Ahmad
Borghani, a close associate of President Khatami who
was one of the surviving reformist candidates.

"The
level of disqualifications was much lower than before,
for a variety of reasons. I think the Second of Khordad
Front will win a majority, but I don't know how big it
will be."

Vivacity

The press has been openly critical of candidates

The relative openness of the contest - although all
candidates have to swear loyalty and prove commitment
to the principles of the Islamic regime - is one
factor making these elections different from previous
ones, in which the cards were more heavily stacked in
favour of the conservatives.

Another big difference is that the election climate is
dominated by President Khatami's biggest achievement
since taking office: the extraordinary vivacity of
the Iranian press.

Many taboos have been broken, and
virtually no one is immune to ruthless scrutiny and
often scathing attack in the public press.

Speaker

One man who discovered this - perhaps to his surprise
and cost - is Mr Rafsanjani, one of the
few personalities whose candidacy is dominating the
election.

Since he threw his hat into the ring in December, his
two-term record as President has been subjected to
unprecedented criticism from leftist writers and
commentators in the press.

Despite his eminence, it is
not a forgone conclusion that he will succeed and
become speaker of the new Majlis, a post he has also
held twice before, as has been widely predicted.

Mr Karbaschi could help Mr Rafsanjani's campaign

The general belief is that Mr Rafsanjani - whose name
heads the list of the conservative JRM faction, but
who is also the unofficial guru of the
Servants of Construction - was encouraged by the conservatives to
stand as a candidate, in the belief that as speaker he
could moderate and manipulate a reformist-dominated
new Majlis.

Part of the understanding may have been the premature
release from prison of the popular former Mayor of
Tehran,
Gholamhossein Karbaschi, who was freed after
serving less than half the two-year sentence he was
given on embezzlement charges.
At the time of his imprisonment last year, Mr
Karbaschi was secretary-general of the Servants of Construction.

Although he may keep a low public
profile, his release is expected to bolster Mr
Rafsanjani's campaign and help smooth over differences
both within the Constructionists, and between them and
their electoral allies in the reformist camp.

New faces

Conservative candidates such as Mohamad Reza Bahonar
believe they still have a good chance of winning a
majority. "But if not, I don't think any faction will
hold a decisive advantage," he said.

Like many others, he believes that changes in Iranian
society - especially the arrival on the scene of a
huge new generation of young people - must be reflected
in the makeup of the new Majlis, whichever way the
factional balance tilts.

"We expect a lot of new faces in the next parliament,"
he said.

"We hope there will be more experienced,
educated young people. All the political parties in
Iran should be revised to become more in tune with the
people and their concerns."