Saturday, December 26, 2009

The Pattern Continues !I'll start by saying we're in for one heck of a ride this winter. As I've mentioned earlier, this winter season could now easily make a top 5 snowiest winter season for PHL, and much of the M/A region. The pattern we're in now continues to show no signs of letting up, as we head into the New Year and first half of January. All teleconnection are locked in too our favor, and El Nino continues to supply the Sub-tropical moisture express. This pattern favors cold air to be dumped and forced into the Central and Eastern CONUS, as blocking and higher heights continue to develop towards the Arctic region and the Northern Atlantic near Greenland. Thus we have the NEG AO/NAO couplet in place. The PNA or Pacific signal is also co-operating, as it remains near neutral to POS. These 3 key teleconnection and there signals, all favor a cold and stormy pattern for the Eastern 2/3 rds of the nation.As we head into this upcoming week, we turn seasonably colder, but also get a much needed break to dry out from all the snow and rain over the past week. This looks to be from Sunday through mid-week, then we turn all attention to the SW and GOM. Another storm system will develop too our deep south in the GOM on Wednesday and Thursday, then take a ride up the east coast from near New Years day and into next weekend. This could be another big snowstorm for parts of the M/A States and into the NE. This storm could have a big impact on New Year's celebrations from The Central/Northern M/A States into the NE. At this time it appears the I-95 Corridor from DCA to BOS could be looking at another major snow event. I'll be tracking this potential storm as we head into the new week, so please stay tuned for my blog updates and Ruggie Weather Forum, for more discussion.Some thoughts for January 2010 !Looking further into the first 2 weeks of January, I'm forecasting a cold and stormy pattern to continue for the Eastern CONUS. After the potential big New Year's storm, very cold air will move in as a strong PV, (Polar Vortex) presses SE from Canada and delivers some Arctic air. So we'll have several days of below to much below normal temps for the first week of January, then below to near normal temps follow into mid-month. With this pattern locked in, I see several chances for more southern type storms to effect the M/A and NE with more snow events. In addition we could also be dealing with a Clipper or two, during this first half of the month. So get ready for a cold and snowy first half of January. It's too early to say if this lasts for the second half of the month, but at this point I really don't see any signs too suggest any pattern change or big warm ups. So with that being said, I'll continue to go with my winter forecast, where I've forecasted and colder than normal month, and Above Average snowfall for the M/A and NE.For PHL and the Delaware Valley. My January 2010 Forecast.Temps: Below Normal (-1.0 F to -3.0 F)Precip: Above NormalSnowfall: Much Above Normal: (12"- 20")From my 2009-2010 Winter Forecast (PHL monthly Call)http://docs.google.com/View?docID=0AWHIezZUyh8PZGN6cnd0NjlfMGhuYjZiemdk&revision=_latest&hgd=1January Monthly Call:Temps: - 1.5 FMean Temp Range: -1.0 to -3.0 (Slightly Below Above)Snowfall: 10" to 12" or (Above Avg.)My mean storm track map from 2009-2010 Winter forecast, looks to be on target. Take Care and Enjoy,Ruggie

4 comments:

The New Year's weekend storm isn't looking all that great for a big snow event from NYC and points south, but a much colder and stormy pattern looks to be a good bet after the New year into much of January.

So, don't be discouraged about this New Years storm being mostly rain and some snow on the backside with some light accumulations still possible.

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Forecaster: John Ruggiano

AKA: Ruggie (RUGGIE WEATHER)

INTRODUCTION AND BIO

My name is John Ruggiano and I now live in Lynchburg, VA . I was born and raised in the Southern NJ Region, other than living in Lynchburg, Va for 10 years, I've lived in Southern NJ most of my life. I first took an interest in weather at a young age, (6 Years Old) and ever since then, it's basically became a big part of my life. My interest became so great that by the time I was around 10 years old I was doing the weather in front of my grade school class and on the school's intercom each morning. In High School I had my own weather board, and everyone, including my teachers called me the school weatherman, thus "RUGGIE WEATHER" became my new name. Over the years, I've had several newspaper articles done on me, along with many visits, and radio broadcasts, with the PHL & ACY National Weather Service's. I've really started forecasting during my teenage years, but now with the information at hand, and the internet technology, My forecasting, both short and long range, has accelerated to a new level.

MY WEATHER BACKGROUND

I've been forecasting weather for over 30 Years and I'm especially familiar with the Climate of "The Delaware Valley". During the past 15 years, I've taken on more challenging tasks, such as Mid and Long range Winter forecasting, along with more Regional predictions of Winter Events, for the Eastern half of the nation. This has all been very exciting, and I've met, and talked with many Professional Meteorologist, and weather Hobbyist like myself. I'm basically a self taught forecaster who has studied the science by reading books and material's too increase my knowledge, along with many years of experience, by trial and error. I am not a Meteorologist with a degree, but I do consider my self a: "Forecaster or Amateur Meteorologist"

IN CLOSING

I will continue to challenge myself to better my forecasting, both in mid and long Range winter forecasting, with winter forecasting, IMO being my specialty. I'll also continue to challenge myself with predicting and studying Severe Weather threats such as Spring and Summer Thunderstorms. In addition, following and tracking hurricane's is something I've always enjoyed doing, so during Hurricane season, I hope to also do some write up's. If you have any comments or questions, please contact me at: Ruggieweather@gmail.com