Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to
reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential
growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be
saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is
turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.

Last days rate

Last average rate

Time to double cases

33d 6h

37d 9h

Time to reach a million cases

109d 18h

123d 9h

Time to saturate the population

>1yr

>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but
to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical
next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.

Total:

189

Population

na

Total cases

Cases per 100.000

Average grow rate (5 days)

Infected

na

124

77

Active

na

100

71

Deaths

na

109

61

Recovered

na

121

81

The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that
are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected
county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first
reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to
the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally
other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are
more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number.
Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get
other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German): Preliminary results -
Press coverage: Die Welt