Your right that electricity in the US is currently mostly coal generated which isn't good. But by limiting peak demand, use of coal and natural gas can be reduced and the base out put from nuclear and renewables, can be shifted by use of the battery technology Musk has developed.

That's not true actually. It varies state by state of course, but overall the proportion of US electricity produced from coal is only 39%, and it's declining year on year (mostly due to fracking and the collapse in natural gas prices, but also thanks to the mass rollout of solar energy). Even if it was all coal-powered though, electric cars would still be cleaner than normal cars because energy production in large-scale power plants is vastly more efficient.

Indeed. Which has two effects - one is less emissions. The other is reduced demand overall for fuel, which will make it cheaper for everyone.

Theoretically, you're right. However, when such savings occur, somehow both companies and government get their cut. Even now, governments are looking at taxing for mileage driven to make up for losses in gas tax revenues.

Theoretically, you're right. However, when such savings occur, somehow both companies and government get their cut. Even now, governments are looking at taxing for mileage driven to make up for losses in gas tax revenues

A certain amount of revenue is required to build and maintain highways and roadways. The gasoline tax was used because it targeted those who used the roads... If the required level of revenue is to be maintained another mechanism will have to be found to maintain the roads... Electric cars still require roads. America's Civil engineers say that the road system is very very bad shape and could use a very significant investment beyond the current funding levels.

Both highway revenues and outlays figure prominently in the report. In the year 2000, highway-user charges made up 62% of highway revenues, but in 2010 provided only 42.5% — a direct consequence of the ongoing effects of inflation on the gas tax, state and federal reluctance to increase the tax rates, and improving vehicle fuel efficiency. The shortfall has been made up by increasing appropriations from general funds and bonds, among other sources. Of the more than $200 billion spent on U.S. highways in 2010, about half was used for capital investments and a quarter for routine maintenance and traffic services. Given the failing grades that existing U.S. roads received from the ASCE, the implication is that road expansion continues even as maintenance is shortchanged.

There are other benefits that electric cars offer that are hard to quantify but could be substantial.

1. Reducing automobile emissions to zero with electric cars would improve air quality with the benefit of reducing health care costs... (Those of you who grew up next to expressways will understand this benefit)2. Reducing the use of oil and gas would localize spending. Although the US is currently a net exporter of oil and gas right now, most electricity (excepting hydro electricity purchased from Canada) is locally produced. 3. reducing the dependence on oil produced from fracking, which is still a potential threat to ground water. 4. reducing noise on roads and highways. (again especially good for those raised under expressways..) 5. safer cars. electric cars in collisions are more survivable than gas cars.... Gas go boom.

Your right that electricity in the US is currently mostly coal generated which isn't good. But by limiting peak demand, use of coal and natural gas can be reduced and the base out put from nuclear and renewables, can be shifted by use of the battery technology Musk has developed.

That's not true actually. It varies state by state of course, but overall the proportion of US electricity produced from coal is only 39%, and it's declining year on year (mostly due to fracking and the collapse in natural gas prices, but also thanks to the mass rollout of solar energy). Even if it was all coal-powered though, electric cars would still be cleaner than normal cars because energy production in large-scale power plants is vastly more efficient.

Indeed. Which has two effects - one is less emissions. The other is reduced demand overall for fuel, which will make it cheaper for everyone.

Theoretically, you're right. However, when such savings occur, somehow both companies and government get their cut. Even now, governments are looking at taxing for mileage driven to make up for losses in gas tax revenues.

So helping reduce the fiscal deficit or even debt, and also allowing companies to use profits for capitalist endeavours.

Ultimately, electric cars are the future. It'll take time of course, but the advantages they have over conventional cars once the start-up problems are overcome are significant. Quite apart from the issue of carbon emissions, they're simply better vehicles. Fewer moving parts so there's far less that can go wrong, meaning much lower maintenance costs for the owners. Significantly cheaper to run and will be for the foreseeable future (even with the current rock-bottom oil price the running costs are much lower). Quieter, less dirty, no need for oil changes... The issues that prevent mass rollout right now are big ones, particularly the range issues and the current scarcity of recharging infrastructure (not to mention the bottleneck of battery production), but these are temporary problems that are already being fixed. In 20 years time they'll be dominating the new car market.

Probably a lot sooner... The Fremont California factory can make 500,000 Model 3 a year... And it looks like they have the financing to build 3 more factories in China, the US and somewhere else... If you watch the interview above you can see the reaction from engineers who test drove the Model 3.This is probably as revolutionary as the introduction of the Model T. They compare this car as superior to luxury Audis and BMWs ...This is going to push GM, Ford Toyota etc. very fast...

Theoretically, you're right. However, when such savings occur, somehow both companies and government get their cut. Even now, governments are looking at taxing for mileage driven to make up for losses in gas tax revenues

A certain amount of revenue is required to build and maintain highways and roadways. The gasoline tax was used because it targeted those who used the roads... If the required level of revenue is to be maintained another mechanism will have to be found to maintain the roads... Electric cars still require roads. America's Civil engineers say that the road system is very very bad shape and could use a very significant investment beyond the current funding levels.

Both highway revenues and outlays figure prominently in the report. In the year 2000, highway-user charges made up 62% of highway revenues, but in 2010 provided only 42.5% — a direct consequence of the ongoing effects of inflation on the gas tax, state and federal reluctance to increase the tax rates, and improving vehicle fuel efficiency. The shortfall has been made up by increasing appropriations from general funds and bonds, among other sources. Of the more than $200 billion spent on U.S. highways in 2010, about half was used for capital investments and a quarter for routine maintenance and traffic services. Given the failing grades that existing U.S. roads received from the ASCE, the implication is that road expansion continues even as maintenance is shortchanged.

There are other benefits that electric cars offer that are hard to quantify but could be substantial.

1. Reducing automobile emissions to zero with electric cars would improve air quality with the benefit of reducing health care costs... (Those of you who grew up next to expressways will understand this benefit)2. Reducing the use of oil and gas would localize spending. Although the US is currently a net exporter of oil and gas right now, most electricity (excepting hydro electricity purchased from Canada) is locally produced. 3. reducing the dependence on oil produced from fracking, which is still a potential threat to ground water. 4. reducing noise on roads and highways. (again especially good for those raised under expressways..) 5. safer cars. electric cars in collisions are more survivable than gas cars.... Gas go boom.

You are the king . . . of building strawmen and then setting them ablaze. Anyone who read what I wrote and then your response is two things: 1) a glutton for punishment; 2) in full agreement with my assessment.

Sassenach wrote:Ultimately, electric cars are the future. It'll take time of course, but the advantages they have over conventional cars once the start-up problems are overcome are significant. Quite apart from the issue of carbon emissions, they're simply better vehicles. Fewer moving parts so there's far less that can go wrong, meaning much lower maintenance costs for the owners. Significantly cheaper to run and will be for the foreseeable future (even with the current rock-bottom oil price the running costs are much lower). Quieter, less dirty, no need for oil changes... The issues that prevent mass rollout right now are big ones, particularly the range issues and the current scarcity of recharging infrastructure (not to mention the bottleneck of battery production), but these are temporary problems that are already being fixed. In 20 years time they'll be dominating the new car market.

I just bought a new car at Easter. It is not electric, but full internal combustion. I expect that my next car will probably be at least a hybrid.

I guess thats the difference. You always want to argue from one side against another. I'd like to often just discuss the issue. I don't think there's always a right or wrong. (Except that your wrong in your assessment of the impact of the EC which makes me think you had an ancestor at Kitty Hawk saying, "It'll never fly Orville".I also wasn't in full agreement with your assessment. Your response was stated as if it were a reason that electric cars would fail or at least falter. My contribution was not to argue with your contention that revenue streams will change, but that somehow this was a negative that would impede the development of the EC. Its entirely extraneous to the development of the EC. It just is a function of the market... A change that will have to be adapted to if governments are to be able to maintain road ways properly.That's neither negative nor positive. Unless the government fails to react to the change and continues to under fund... US governance does tend to be inflexible and unable to change as market conditions and society change. Which I point to when offering the evidence that the ACE gives so many roads failing grades for maintenance due to under funding... And that exists now when the EC is a very small slice of the market... So its not like this problem is sneaking up on anyone... Or will cause the market to respond less favorably to the EC... As I said. That's entirely extraneous to the EC's success or failure.

Sassenach wrote:Ultimately, electric cars are the future. It'll take time of course, but the advantages they have over conventional cars once the start-up problems are overcome are significant. Quite apart from the issue of carbon emissions, they're simply better vehicles. Fewer moving parts so there's far less that can go wrong, meaning much lower maintenance costs for the owners. Significantly cheaper to run and will be for the foreseeable future (even with the current rock-bottom oil price the running costs are much lower). Quieter, less dirty, no need for oil changes... The issues that prevent mass rollout right now are big ones, particularly the range issues and the current scarcity of recharging infrastructure (not to mention the bottleneck of battery production), but these are temporary problems that are already being fixed. In 20 years time they'll be dominating the new car market.

I just bought a new car at Easter. It is not electric, but full internal combustion. I expect that my next car will probably be at least a hybrid.

I'm guessing it's because electric cars are still too expensive for the moment. Even with the subsidy, if you want a good one then you have to pay through the nose. The non-Tesla versions are much inferior, with a range of approximately 80 miles or so, as opposed to the over 200 that the Model 3 will have (or over 300 miles for the higher spec models). Give it time, for the minute you really do have to be quite wealthy to afford one.

geojanes wrote:I'm in Michigan for a few weeks and I see a lot of different cars on the road than I do in NYC, including more than a few Volts. So I looked up how the electric vehicle sales are going and found this:

It shows that electric vehicle sales are growing fairly rapidly since their introduction in 2010. The Volt's sales YTD are down a little and it is no longer the best selling electric vehicle, but others are increasing. Probably the most interesting thing about the table is that in 2011 there were very few choices, but in 2014 there are 18 different models available in the US. That's pretty cool. Anybody drive one? I never have, but I'm told that the acceleration that comes from an electric engine is fantastic.

I went back to look at what happened to electric car sales now that oil prices have dropped

2010/11 17,425

2012 52,607

2013 97,507

2014 122,438

2015 116,099

2016 (7 months) 78,179

2016 annualized134,021

Fair to say that lower prices (or changes in subsidies or some combination) impacted sales in 2015, but there are still a bunch sold and 2016 is on track to be the highest sales year ever. Volt is doing about what it always has done, but the market has gotten much more crowded! 27 different plug-in models are now sold.

But I still haven't been in one yet, let alone drive one. I want an empty highway straight-away and a Tesla. Just for 60 seconds.

As I wrote here, EVs to reach tipping point in 2020s, cost less than gas cars, not only will all autonomous cars eventually be electric, but all vehicles generally will eventually be electric.

Autonomous cars and trucks are already being tested in Singapore. GM will launch autonomous cars on Lyft. (Eliminating the need for a driver is a huge economic advantage to a company like Uber or Lyft. Or a taxi compnay.) All automous cars will be electric because the engineering is easier. So there is another market factor pushing electric cars and trucks.