Saturday, November 8, 2014

Market Watch

Neither of these teams played in Week 9, but we've seen a line move off the -7.5 look-ahead line that was originally up at Westgate. It reopened at -7 last Sunday and we haven't seen a move off of it yet. 76% of the bets are on the Packers, and I'm sure even more money will come in on them as we inch closer to kickoff.

Bottom Line

No matter what anyone says, it would be hard to convince me that the Bears are worth a play in this spot. When you have a terrible (and injured) secondary against Aaron Rodgers, it's a recipe for a long day. That's exactly what we saw when the Packers traveled to Chicago earlier in the year. Rodgers put up crazy numbers, and he had all day to sit back and find the open guy.

That needs to change if the Bears want to stay in this one, but their pass rush has been mediocre all year. In fact, there's nothing they do well on defense.

It gets a little bit better when we look at their offense, but not by a whole lot. The Bears have done a good job moving the ball and converting those drives into touchdowns once they get inside the 20, but they don't do consistently enough. On paper there's no reason why this offense can't be prolific, and they get a Packers defense that struggles on third down or inside their red zone, but Jay Cutler remains ... well, Jay Cutler. If he can put together a relatively mistake-free performance, they have a chance. Realistically, that's usually asking a lot.

The Packers have the biggest mismatch with their passing game, but is it enough to win by more than a TD?

I'm inclined to say yes, but I wouldn't consider it unless the books offered us -6.5. At -7, it's a pass for me. Instead, I'd rather tease them down to -1 and just ask them to win the game straight up.

UPDATE: We've now seen an expected move off the -7. Most books have it -8.5, but some are keeping it out of the teaser window at -9.