Hollinger's Big Board, PER

7. Making my board

Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:

Hope his right,
If we came away with Barnes/Lillard, Moe Harkless and Quincy Acy (projected around our ranges) I would call it a sucessful draft for once.

Huh? This is NOT what John Hollinger thinks will happen -- this is his rankings of the players. If his rankings are right and we end up taking Barnes/Lillard, then we just had an UNSUCCESSFUL draft!

I can't believe Perry Jones is down at #28. Ouch. I've never liked Damian Lillard so I hope the Raptors are reading this. Surprised at Dion Waiters and Quincy Miller. So if the mock drafts are right and Hollinger's rankings are right, then Waiters would be a steal.

The more I read, the more I like him too. I was encouraged by Hollinger's article, because he reminds us to look at other players who have similar qualities and how they have done in the NBA over the span of their careers, and not just in their first year.

Not saying I agree with his order necessarily, but it's good to see that Waiters is looked at in some context as less risky than Beal.

Remember, these are projected PER ratings three or four years into their pro careers (or so I understand). Here's what he had to say about Waiters:

"I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed."

His Quincy Miller evaluation also caught me by surprise:

"The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick."

He wasn't as high on Beal and Barnes:

"Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery."

One last quote on Lillard:

"One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis."

Take it for what it's worth. For me, I've always liked Waiters (that's my opinion, not Hollinger's).

I thought Lillard was the second most efficeint player in the nation after Davis. Interesting that he's ranked so low. Also Moe Harkless isn't even in the first round. I guess he hasn't found a way to calculate potential.

PER ratings, data from past drafts and career paths that followed,....basically the world's most complicated formula....that, and what he says in the first paragraph on the op

Yeah, I see that now. But not a pure calculated PER, but some wack projected PER. So basically voodoo. I doubt any statistical model that rates Drummond, who may have potential, but is not at the moment a very good basketball player, higher that Lillard, who may lack upside, but is a very good player right now. Wroten is higher than Lillard. #fail

In any case, I hope GMs take this very seriously, and Lillard drops to us.

this seems like a ridiculous big board, when comparing it with mocks...but this guy isn't an idiot. I like Nicholson at 38, but I think he is a first rounder, same with Moultrie.
lots of surprises in the lottery, how do all the players somehow connected to the Raps fall past them...Lillard, Barnes, Beal. and I really don't understand Q Miller at 6...how has his pre tourney draft stock the same and PJ3 dropped like 20+ spots?? They were equally unimpressive in the tourney...Draymond Green ahead of J Lamb?? Food for thought i guess

This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.

This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.