Texas A&M prediction: Can the Aggies get back on track with a win over Ole Miss?

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FILE - In this Oct. 13, 2018, file photo, Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher directs with players during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday,, in Columbia, S.C. First-year coach Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies are trying to bounce back from a two-game losing skid when they host Ole Miss on Saturday. (AP Photo/Sean Rayford, File)

Texas A&M vs Ole Miss

What's on the line

After dropping its last two games to close a three game road trip, A&M is relatively desperate for a win. The Aggies are playing their first game at home in 34 days against one of the SEC's worst teams and are a near two-score favorite. A win could get A&M back on track towards a somewhat successful first year under Jimbo Fisher, but a loss would almost certainly put the Aggies on track to finish below last year's 7-5 regular season finish. Needless to say, A&M needs to win this game. On paper, the Aggies are better, but have trended downwards in the past few weeks. Fisher needs his team to play a complete 60 minutes, something the Aggies haven't done well in the past few games, which has led to losses. Furthermore, a win would make A&M bowl eligible for the 10th straight season.

On the other hand, Ole Miss is eyeing to coming into Kyle Field and damper the Aggies' season even more. The Rebels are essentially playing with house money since they are ineligible for postseason due to NCAA sanctions. Coming into Kyle Field and stealing a win over a frustrated and frazzled A&M squad would bring nothing but joy to those in Oxford. Furthermore, this matchup sets up as a classic trap game with a morning kick.

When A&M has the ball

It's been tough sledding for quarterback Kellen Mond the past two weeks. The sophomore only completed 50 percent of his passes against Mississippi State and Auburn and accounted for only two touchdowns to four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles). Mond acknowledged on Monday that he needs to be better going through progressions. He might get one of his top targets back this weekend, as wide receiver Jhamon Ausbon (foot) is expected to return after being sidelined for the last four games. However, the Aggies need to get another key pass catching target rolling again -- tight end Jace Sternberger. The sophomore is the team's leading receiver, but has been held to 5 catches for 72 yards and zero touchdowns over the past two games.

Although the Aggies need to find solutions in their passing game, they might be able to get the Rebels good on the ground. Ole Miss is allowing 210.0 rushing yards per game, which is 109th nationally. Fisher and the Aggies have seemed to expand the game of running back Trayveon Williams over the past couple weeks, giving him carries up the middle and stretching him to the sideline in the screen game. Additionally, A&M has given more carries to freshman Jashaun Corbin in the past two games, who is a bigger bodied back that provides a positive change of pace on offense. The key to the Aggies finding success on the ground will be found in their offensive line. The unit has seen some shifts in the past couple weeks, but should have center Erik McCoy ready to go on Saturday.

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels offense starts with the pass. Quarterback Jordan Ta'amu is the SEC's passing leader and has home run threats AJ Brown and DaMarkus Lodge to throw to. This could be problematic for the A&M secondary that was carved like a Thanksgiving turkey in the fourth quarter against Auburn. However, Ta'amu has been limited in practice this week after suffering a minor ankle injury last Saturday against South Carolina. While he will be ready to go, Ta'amu might not be as mobile as normal. A&M will likely bring the heat often and early and forcing him into scrambles might benefit the Aggies.

A&M has been stout against the run this season, but the Aggie front seven will face a stiff test against Rebel running back Scottie Phillips. Ole Miss is averaging 193.8 rushing yards per game, and Phillips is accounting for 102.6 of them. He is third in the conference in rushing yards (923) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns (12). The Rebels will turn to him in the red zone as 10 of his scores have come from inside the 20.

Prediction

This matchup has trap game written all over it given Ole Miss' predicament and the Aggies' recent woes. However, A&M will have a key intangible playing at home, whereas playing on the road fed Mississippi State and Auburn much-needed energy over the past two weeks. The Aggies controlled the entire game for 50 minutes last Saturday and showed signs of improvement in their red zone offense and pass defense before falling to shambles. Ole Miss is not as talented as Auburn and Saturday will show why.

The trio of Trayveon Williams, Jashaun Corbin and Kellen Mond run for nearly 200 yards combined against a rough Rebel rush defense. Mond doesn't have noteworthy passing numbers, but throws a key touchdown pass when needed. Jordan Ta'amu will get his through the air, but Ole Miss will be shut down on the ground by the Aggies, just like all of their other opponents. A&M gets back in the win column, but the victory isn't the prettiest.