Sorting through the information flood for usable knowledge for our farm

Sunday, January 27, 2008

The coming "tsunameat"...

I will be reading Steve Cornett even more closely now, since my brief discussions with livestock producers at various meetings. Steve captures well the larger picture for the livestock sector, and often shares some surprising insights that help crystallize vague intuitions of my own.

Consider his latest about agriculture and a small community:

None of them are farming, by the way. The fellow who owns that land moved in. So what those farm kids do now: real estate agent/builder; nursing home owner; old folks home administrator; city manager’s wife; retired army colonel; software designer in Dallas; veterinarian; retired ag teacher; minister.

That’s all I can think of right now, but the point is made. These folks are not, as my parent’s generation were, leaving because they were pushed by hard times. They left because A)We don’t need them farming because we got tractors bigger than our parent’s houses were; B) because they got good educations and don’t have to farm and; C) because in the modern world, daddy doesn’t have to send the smart kid to town and give the farm to the one that can’t make it outside. Now you send the runt to college to learn journalism and you keep the prudent one home to manage the family LLC. [More]

Industrial agriculture is shedding people because we don't need them, and no subsidy low-interest loan will overcome that fact. I will trying to outline what that could mean in an upcoming TP column.

But Steve goes on to address a growing concern I have for our livestock industry - an inability of consumers to do the math necessary to grasp how much meat we consume and how it is possible to produce it.

A few critics do, and while I am unsure of their power to effect consumption changes, I do think their voices will add to the problem about to explode in the form of meat prices.

A sea change in the consumption of a resource that Americans take for granted may be in store — something cheap, plentiful, widely enjoyed and a part of daily life. And it isn’t oil.

It’s meat.

The two commodities share a great deal: Like oil, meat is subsidized by the federal government. Like oil, meat is subject to accelerating demand as nations become wealthier, and this, in turn, sends prices higher. Finally — like oil — meat is something people are encouraged to consume less of, as the toll exacted by industrial production increases, and becomes increasingly visible. [More]

Briefly put, meat prices need to escalate drastically to overcome feed costs. To have this occur at the beginning of a downturn is ominous, but those who hang on may be able to gain some pricing power under the cover of rampant general inflation that strikes me as very likely. (Much more on this later this week).

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About Me

I am a sixth-generation farmer who hold a degree in Chemical Engineering, a minor in Economics, and served as a nuclear engineer from 1970-75.
Jan, Aaron and I farm 2100 acres near Chrisman, IL. Aaron joined our farm operation in 2008.
I have written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 20 years. I was the host of US Farm Report from 2005 to 2014, and now serve as Commentator.
I speak often to farm and agribusiness groups on topics from risk analysis to professional development.

About Incoming

Incoming is a collection of current thoughts on the nature of the profession of farming from the perspective of a farmer/writer (see full bio here).

It will soon become obvious to readers I lean to the middle, specifically toward pragmatic libertarianism: preserving individual liberty and responsibility. Another strong influence is my education as an engineer. Now throw in 45 years as a husband, 41 as father, and 30 as a choir director. Not to mention a life of farming.

As for the humor... what can I say? Stuff just strikes me as funny. A lot of stuff, actually.

The Internet has filled a hole in my life I never knew existed. These posts are brief summaries of what I am finding and how I feel it will affect my (our) world.

The opinions are my very own. It was not easy to think them up, and nobody else can be blamed for them. In fact, most people around me brace themselves when I start typing or open my mouth.

I welcome comments. I am exceptionally difficult to offend, and have learned to try to rectify mistakes or errors in judgment as rapidly as possible. And I have had plenty of practice.

Thank you for reading.

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