Ok so we're well past mid month but I did start this post about a week ago so I guess that still counts.

So far so good with deliveries thus far in 2017. Boeing has handed the keys to 7 Dreamliners thus far and has completed customer flights on another 5 most (if not all) should be delivered by the end of this week. The customers that have taken possession include American, United, Air India, Aeromexico, Etihad, Air Canada, and Hainan. All but 1 were 787-9. In the next 4 days additional 787s will be turned over to Royal Jordanian (787-8), American Airlines, Xiamen, Air Canada, and AerCap (lsd to Latam). All but RJA are 787-9s. Boeing is already up to 507 total deliveries thus far.

787 production is starting to ramp back up after the holidays and while it appears that Everett production is almost back to where it should be, Charleston is going to be a little lower as they work on the first 787-10. In fact the Charleston plan is not due to roll out another 787 until February 8 which is a month after it most recent roll out on January 9. Again this is all due to the start of 787-10 production and the diverting of of several 787 production to Everett to avoid disruption in the production and delivery of customer aircraft. Boeing Charleston has now begun using the newly completed paint hangars when ZB451 (LN517, N825AAA) for American Airlines was rolled into Bay 1. Currently it appears that Boeing is using Bay 1 and not Bay 2 yet as they're still flying the occasional 787 to Louisiana for painting. It may be that Boeing has to finish installation of equipment in that Bay. Currently Boeing is looking to roll out 6 787s while starting assembly on another 6. Charleston has rolled out 2 and will start assembly on a further 4 aircraft. Amazingly, because of the increase in the number of aircraft that Everett has to produce due to the 787-10 production introduction, the Washington final assembly line is taking 16 to 17 days to build a 787! I'm not sure if that is sustainable but after the second 787-10 is built, I believe that Boeing will then return the Charleston plant to it's normal operating output but that probably won't be until March or April at the earliest.787 Current Production Table787 Full Production Table

The 787 program has accomplished much in 2016 with 137 deliveries and a turn to profitability for the program as Boeing is just starting to reduce the huge deferred production expense line item on it's balance sheet.

Part of the reduction of this expense is not just attributable to reducing across the board costs with Partnering for Success as well as internal cost management but also a greater mix of 787-9 vs 787-8 aircraft being delivered. This trend is going to continue through 2017 as we'll see a greater number of 787-9s delivered vs. 2016.

I am projecting that Boeing will deliver 145 787s in 2017 vs. 137 in 2016 (6% increase). This includes 118 787-9s vs. 102 that were actually delivered in 2016 (up 16% from the 2016 levels). Thus there will be 27 787-8 deliveries vs. 35 that were delivered in 2016 (a 23% decrease year over year). The 787-8 delivery total includes 5 early build 787-8s that should conclude a forgettable part of the 787 program.

New 787 Operators in 2017
There are going to be a few new operators of the 787 stating in 2017. Among them are:

Additionally, UAE Presidential Flight which had taken delivery of a 787-8 will also take delivery of a 787-9 this year as will Thai International Airways.

2017 Deliveries: More 787-9s
From the table below you can see the distribution of deliveries by customer and operator. AerCap looks to be the 2017 winner with 16 787-9 deliveries coming in the new year followed by American Airlines with 13 and Norwegian Air with 10. Unsurprisingly most these are 787-9s.

Operator

Total Expected 787 Deliveries (2017)

Total Expected 787-8 Deliveries (2017)

Total Expected 787-9 Deliveries (2017)

Aeroméxico

4

0

4

Air Canada

10

0

10

Air China

7

0

7

Air Europa

3

3

0

Air France

4

0

4

Air India

5

5

0

Air New Zealand

2

0

2

American Airlines

13

3

10

ANA

6

0

6

Avianca

2

2

0

British Airways

1

1

0

Crystal Air

1

1

0

El Al Airlines

2

0

2

Ethiopian Airlines

5

3

2

Etihad Airways

9

0

9

Hainan Airlines

9

0

9

Japan Airlines

5

0

5

KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines

2

0

2

Korean Air

5

0

5

LAN

2

0

2

LOT Polish Airlines

2

2

0

Neos

1

0

1

Norwegian Air International Ltd

10

0

10

Oman Air

3

0

3

QANTAS

3

0

3

Royal Jordanian

2

2

0

Saudi Arabian Airlines

7

0

7

Scoot Pte Ltd

4

4

0

Thai Airways International

2

0

2

Unknown

1

1

0

Thomson

1

0

1

UAE Presidential Flight

1

0

1

United Airlines

5

0

5

Vietnam Airlines

1

0

1

Virgin Atlantic Airways

2

0

2

Xiamen Airlines

3

0

3

TOTAL

145

27

118

Customer

Total Expected 787 Deliveries (2017)

Total Expected 787-8 Deliveries (2017)

Total Expected 787-9 Deliveries (2017)

AerCap

16

0

16

Aeroméxico

4

0

4

Air Canada

10

0

10

Air China

7

0

7

Air Europa

3

3

0

Air France

2

0

2

Air India

5

5

0

Air New Zealand

2

0

2

ALC

3

0

3

American Airlines

13

3

10

ANA

6

0

6

Avianca

2

2

0

BBJ

2

1

1

British Airways

1

1

0

CIT Leasing

4

0

4

Ethiopian Airlines

3

3

0

Etihad Airways

9

0

9

Hainan Airlines

7

0

7

Japan Airlines

5

0

5

Korean Air

5

0

5

LAN

1

0

1

LOT Polish Airlines

2

2

0

Norwegian Air International Ltd

4

0

4

QANTAS

3

0

3

Royal Jordanian

2

2

0

Saudi Arabian Airlines

4

0

4

Saudi Ministry of Finance

3

0

3

Scoot Pte Ltd

4

4

0

Unknown

1

1

0

TUI Travel

1

0

1

United Airlines

5

0

5

Vietnam Airlines

1

0

1

Virgin Atlantic Airways

2

0

2

Xiamen Airlines

3

0

3

TOTAL

145

27

118

The tables below summarizes the number of planned deliveries by month, build location and variant.

It's interesting to note that currently, Boeing is planning to deliver 16 787s at the end of the year. The delivery totals are quite uneven with most deliveries coming in the second half of the year. In fact the delivery rate for the 1st half of 2017 won't keep up with the production rate thus creating a temporary backlog that should be cleared in the second half of 2017. Still with a production rate of 12/month equating to a yearly output of 144 787s, Boeing, it seems will be lowering the delivery rate. The logic is as follows. While Boeing is projected to deliver 145 787s, 5 of these are early build 787s thus the delivery rate of new build 787s in 2017 is 140 as opposed to a production rate of 144. However, during this year Boeing will also produce 4 787-10 that will not be delivered until 2018, Thus with the introduction of the 787-10 into the production system, the 787 delivery rate will be slightly lower than would be normally expected given the 12/month rate.

The delivery of 787 number 600 should take place in late September and of course there will be just shy of 650 787s flying the world skies by the end of 2017.

Month

Total

787-8

787-9

Charleston

Everett

January

12

2

10

4

8

February

10

2

8

4

6

March

10

4

6

2

8

April

10

2

8

4

6

May

12

3

9

3

9

June

9

2

7

2

7

July

13

3

10

5

8

August

14

4

10

6

8

September

12

1

11

5

7

October

13

2

11

6

7

November

14

1

13

6

8

December

16

1

15

7

9

Location

Planned 2017 Deliveries

Charleston

54

Everett

91

Charleston

Planned 2017 Deliveries

787-8

1

787-9

53

Everett

Planned 2017 Deliveries

787-8

26

787-9

65

With the cancellation of Delta's 787-8 order (inherited from Northwest during the merger of those carriers), the total 787 order book has dropped below 1200 but ominously for the 787-8, the current backlog of that variant is at 90 with 26 or those being delivered this year. Given that there are other 787-8 orders that are still sketchy, the actual 787-8 may actually be lower than 90. I can see the number of 787-8 deliveries in future years dropping into the single digits. Boeing will need to execute on the 787-9 and 787-10 as they will form the backbone and the cash cow of the 787 program in the years to come save a major revamp of the 787-8 in the same vein of the 777-300ER development.

Lastly, now that January 2017 is here, let's take a glance at expected deliveries for this month. Again Boeing is scheduled to hand over 12 787s this month, 10 will be 787-9 and will be 787-8. 8 are produced in Everett and the remaining 4 are built in North Charleston.In terms of the customer mix this month, there aren't any new operators or customers receiving their first 787 this month. 2017 is looking to get off to a bold start for the 787 program.