Severe T-Storm Warnings

4:20 PM: Dang, I just took a call from someone who wanted to know if the time change was supposed to be last weekend!!! Severe T-Storm Warnings for Montcalm, Mecosta, E. Newaygo, Clare and Osceola Counties for marginal hail and wind. Check the Fremont Cam. 3 reports of pea-sized hail from the Muskegon area. Also hail at Stony Lake when the storm went thru (Oceana Co.) Pea-sized hail and gusts to 40-50 mph in Whitehall. Update from GRR: ” Checked with Benona Shores Golf Course near Little Sable Point, they had Estimated 30 mph wind gust with pea size hail that fell from the storm…quick mesoscale update: still have rather extensive cloud cover and very marginal instability. the storm prediction center is not thinking a watch will be necessary anytime real soon, however there is still potential for a few strong to severe storms by late aftn/eve.” Bill adds – seeing the potential for (as of now) small hail and a below-severe criteria gust front with the storms coming into NW Muskegon and Oceana Co. A small bowing segment went thru N. Oceana Co. – leave a comment if you had some wind up there. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a meso-discussion for N. Illinois, N. Indiana and SW Michigan. Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch Possible. Golfball-sized hail already near Racine WI – storm tracking over Lake Michigan now. Hail also reported west of Chicago. Special Marine Warning for Holland north. Significant Weather Advisory for Oceana/Muskegon. North of a line from Grand Haven to Mt. Pleasant. T-Storms…not a ton of lightning, but some – certainly a chance of gusty winds and hail. Chance of a tornado in this area is not zero, but pretty small as of now. They say: “PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME FORM OF THIS IL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD TO EXTREME SE WI/SRN LAKE MI…AND EWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS…WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 21Z AND PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 03Z. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SERN WI EWD TOWARDS SWRN LWR MI. …BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS AFTERNOON.” Areas south and east of Kent County will have a slightly higher threat of severe weather between the hours of 4 PM and 10 PM. Here’s the latest satellite loop, showing the breaks in the clouds and a surface weather map. More sunshine will mean we get warmer and the warmer we get during the mid-afternoon, the better the chance for any severe weather.

328 Responses to “Severe T-Storm Warnings”

dang went from 63 to 61.7 in less then an hour. Any slim chance I had at seeing or hearing a rumble of thunder is now a 0. But then again if the sun decides to peak before dark it very well may go up but not counting on it.

I’m in Cedar now- nothing happened- I think we had 2 or 3 flashes of lightning and a rumble or two of thunder- didn’t even have a ton of rain- it was very brief. While I am thankful we didn’t have really bad severe weather/tornado- I am disappointed, as I was at least hoping for a decent thunderstorm out of this. Oh well.. Same as last year- everything was North and South LOL

This bowing segment is trying has a lot of storm-relative shearing going on between Big Rapids and Mecosta. If it starts to kink and actively rotate… look out Barryton, and Clare County. A tornado warning might be needed if this develops more. Still, a hail and strong wind threat will continue to exist.

I must say, so far Indy has called this one today, called it for things to begin at 3pm, and Deb up in Ludington got a storm, he called a tornado watch before one was issued, and here we are a tornado watch.

Weak rotation within the line near Barryton in eastern Mecosta County. I placed a red dot where the rotation is. Note: This radar image was taken at 4:29 pm. It’s moving quickly east-northeast at 40-50 mph.

The rotation is a bit weak. It’s 2-3 miles wide, and it’s 30 mph outbound and inbound storm-relative velocity. The radar beam is about a mile above the ground up there. But yes, it’s something they are watching. They’re probably seeking Mecosta and Isabella County sheriffs offices for reports.

DISCUSSION…A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER WI…WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING SEWD OVER NRN IL/INDIANA TO LOWER MI. CLOUD BREAKS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN SOME DESTABILIZATION NEWD INTO LOWER MI…AND CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY SINCE 1945Z. GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO…ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.