"Let me direct you to the only question that had value from an investment perspective:

SANTELLI: Mr. President. If I were to ask an investor would he invest in a company that for every dollar it spent it had to borrow 42 cents, I think that investor would think long and hard. Now if you look at the amount of money the government takes in and the amount of spending, those are pretty much the numbers for our government right now.

Does it bother you that 42 percent of our spending is borrowed even understanding that we have to deficit spend under tough times. How long can the U.S. continue to spend in that fashion without potentially hurting our long time financial health.

OBAMA: Well, it bothers me a lot. It bothered me when I was running for office and it bothered me when I arrived and I had a $1.3 trillion deficit wrapped in a bow and waiting for me in the Oval Office.

So, the answer to Rick's question is we've got to do something about it. And we have to do something about it fairly rapidly. The first thing you do is not dig it deeper. That's why this tax debate is important. We can't give $700 billion away to some of America's wealthiest people. We've got to make sure we're responsible for our budget, that's point #1....

The one thing I have to say to the public is that about 60 percent of our budget is entitlements, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And a lot of the discretion I have is somewhat limited on these programs.

Now part of the reason health-care reform was so important is because the biggest driver of our long term budget deficits is Medicare. If our economy is growing at 2 or 3 or 4 percent, but health care costs are going up 6, or 7 or 8 percent, than the budget will blow up no matter how many cuts I make in other programs..."

For you applied logic afficianados, do some math on this algebraic equation...

(a)"Three out of five global investors say the world economy has weathered the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

(b)Few believe the economy is recovering, with only (c)one in six of those surveyed describing it as expanding, according to a global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. (d) Forty-one percent aren’t convinced the financial situation is stable and say further turbulence is likely."

A+B+C+D = drumroll please - cue Jeopardy music...

“When taken as a whole, the world has stabilized,” says Uzi Zimmerman, a respondent to the Bloomberg Global Poll..."

- the world has stabilized
- Equity markets have risen 9% in September with no correction, (and 14% in the quarter - which often happens in functioning bull markets)...
- Bloomberg blames the "crisis" on "Lehman"
- Obama blames the crisis on "Bush"
- The solution for all these problems is MORE (growth, taxes, prices, convolution, whatever)

I'm clearly suffering from some form of logic dystrophy so I'm going to need help...

Nic.. I know what your chart was on the other page.. LOL.. so i shouldn't be short $spx right now : ) cuz that upside down chart was bearish.. which means bullish.. i know that, but it defies logic! and fundamentals but we know those don't count. can't we even have a little correction ??

Jennifer.. funny you noticed that banner change! but i can't remember the old one..

Another early start I see guys, good luck today. And CV, I was smiling broadly when I posted my earlier ribbing. While it bounced around in a most entertaining manner, your post did actually make sense, I admit. Sorry if I came across as rude, no meanness was intended.

. . and don't get me wrong- I like the corporatocracy observation (duh! not an incredible insight)-

but he's always selling his "independent" moniker-

I guess if you say it long enough people start believing it (at the least the cheerleader's over there)

I wonder why someone like Venndata or Dedude doesn't get dressed down for their non-stop partisan blather- (at least Rootless Cosmopolitan has taken up the cause to point out Venndata's non-stop mantra)

and it's funny that Thor commented after I posted regarding this very quote that "it took 60 posts before the 'usual' finger pointing that BR is a closet liberal"-

and my observation back to him was- if it takes 60 posts before the "usual"- maybe it wasn't the usual

A little random though sort of on topic, one of the things that attracted me to wave analysis was that it was rooted in the fibo sequence, and within the sequence of course we find the golden ratio who's geometric shape is the spiral, something that all things with growth or decay pattern exhibit, including our own bodies (phi is all over your body)

In reading neely's book I'm quite taken with some of the patterns he identifies that are not included in the orthodox EWP book, today in particular I'll highlight the bow-tie shape, which you can see Andy illustrate in his update here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37729379/S-P-Update-19-Sep-10

I'm certain all of you have seen a picture of a spiral galaxy, they tend to be pretty popular in the astronomy books. Well here is an example of the shape in Andy's update:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18082430/

So, question is, can any of you think of any other forms that occur naturally that take this bow-tie shape?

wow on that red star nebula! reminded me of an asscher cut diamond.. and yes, "if symmetry is a sign of splendor, then the newly discovered Red Square nebula is one of the most beautiful objects in the universe."

same son that was in the hospital last January.. this time it is ruptured appendix.. or at least it perforated as they were removing it.. son insists they "botched" the surgery but it was apparently in an awkward position.. he is at school in NY at at the local hospital.. his older brother has been taking the train to see him everyday, but is now on his way here for a job interview..

one of my aunts hired me about a year ago to manage her accounts, she had an advisor just like that guy you describe, told her to never ever sell anything. As you can imagine it's been a bit of a struggle to work with her because she was so used to this, I remember when I brought up using some fixed income she nearly lost it, she's slowly (very slowly) coming around though to the realization that when you are speculating you can't just set it and forget it.

Just getting texts from the sickie, now.. his mood is good.. the cat scan found a minor thing (don't want to subject you to those details!) So apparently he is on the mend, albeit slowly.. I feel better that he is not seeming so dejected.. I got exclamation points.. always a good sign with him.. thanks for your concerns!

Remember the example I gave, hold up a nautilus shell to the mathematical formula for it, the shell is not exactly like the formula, one is mathematical theory, one is reality, apparently these people are still trying to decide which is which, markets, aren't any different, no matter how much these people try to make them "fit"

"He had a sense that actions in markets provoke reactions and they are done for reasons, benign or not benign,” said Frank Hatheway, chief economist at Nasdaq, one of the exchanges that provided data for the inquiry."

here is the heart of his beliefs, which explain physics and sound good to us because they explain evolution, but it can't explain why trends end....and clearly they do, if this were true they would not.

So if we rally hard this morning I would be a seller at 2pm. Profit taking seems due and if there is no more QE (likely in my view), there will be selling. A retrace this week to support at the delightful KT area would hardly surprise the present company.

Don't short Ts today. If they announce QE, Ts get bought. If they don't equity sell-off, flight to quality, Ts get bought. Wait for that rally to run its course and then sell 'em short.

from Mish: The one thing we desperately need is a culture change. Instead, we made too big to fail, too bigger to fail. We preserved a culture that benefits billionaires like Munger and greedy CEO's that helped cause this mess. That culture benefits no one else.

Wonder if Dr. Bruce has any comments about that given his line of work...would be curious to hear if different procedures have become more popular over the years....did spiedy mark a top for the ridiculous plastic surgery?

McF -- The most popular bowties in our household are of the pasta variety -- the little carb lovers love 'em, especially with butter and parmesan cheese. Decidedly NOT naturally occurring. The other issue goes to the heart of portfolio management. Older folks -- not necessarily an age thing but more a function of time spent with money in the market -- are inherently transaction adverse since transactions incur fees and taxes. My father has a borderline insane hatred of taxes. I would go out on a limb here and say that Cramer does have it right (don't shoot me!!!) when he says that taxes are just the cost of doing business and if you have a gain you want to keep you need to cash it in and pay the tax. The other issue, and they are linked, is that there really is no diversification any more, which also goes against everything the older mindset has been taught. Yes, diversification does avoid the individual company blow ups -- if you want coal exposure spread it around so when Massey kills a ton of miners you're not all in Massey. But most people don't get the dollar/currency/leverage connection, and frankly I think people just don't want to think that hard. My parents gave me the portfolio of a family charitable trust to manage. Nice, huh? 75% of the portfolio was in one stock -- a large regional bank. But, god forbid I actually SELL anything...because then we'd have to ...pay taxes!!! So, how am I supposed to buy something new if I can't sell out of something old? (I sold anyway, but of course, not at the absolute best possible price, so that wasn't great either.) Needless to say, portfolio performance has been less than spectacular. I can't wait to seem them on Wednesday when they come for my oldest's birthday.

Stay long the divvies and the Junk, and HEDGE the big surges in the RUT might well be the way to play. When the big dips come along, short TLT into resistance. That H&S on TLT is getting to be almost as beautiful as Karen.

Those are the thoughts here at Schadenfreude Asset Management, for the time being.

I know someone up the street from my office, parent of a young client of mine, they owned $2 million of colonial bankshares, would have had a huge taxable gain if they had sold so they refused to, instead they rode it down for a complete loss! I never have gotten this at all, and I do agree with Cramer also, the whole goal is to make money, paying taxes is part of the deal.

As for diversification, good observations you have there, that was an idea born out of the great bull market in social mood, the idea itself is a myth. This is one of the great struggles for me with clients the last few years, I'm always getting pushback due to our heavy weight toward fixed income "why aren't we more diversified"

look at put option premiums, they still aren't what I'd call cheap, even now. i think traders are know how serious the risk of another flash type event occuring soon is, I'm guessing of course, but I don't think this is all "we have huge profits because we all bought the higher low and are sitting on $5k per contract now and need to hedge that"

it would just seem there is still underlying fear that isn't reflected in the VIX but it is reflected in options premiums.

Yesterday was certainly a perplexing day. Stocks screamed higher breaking out the key resistances and making it look like we are in for a bull run into year-end. Meanwhile bonds were bid, not acknowledging equities one bit, and gold and copper were mixed at best while the dollar index which was initially weak finished close to unchanged. Either it was a stat-arb holiday I was not made aware of or people are trully confused here.

Our house is about 50% glass, and birds fly into it, unfortunately, every day. When they are really stunned, my wife or I pick them up and warm them by holding them, especially in the winter, until they are ready to fly again.

I'm just fooling around with some charts that include the AFTER HOURS prints on SPY...

Here's something I came up with...

NEW CHART IN THREAD

Back at 1040, most charts were showing "bullish divergence"... The quick move back to 1100 was clearly an overcompensation, and occurred NIFTILY as MOMO's put the Sept 401k $$ to work...

The market has continued to rise, but it also appears that it is somewhat of a consolidation pattern...

Not really consolidating PRICE WISE, but rather MOMENTUM WISE... There have clearly been numerous "bearish divergences" over the past week, but a lot of that has (correctly or incorrectly) been attributed to things like:

- POMO activity- OPEX week- End of quarter window dressing

We are approaching a 20-21 day window where that OVERSOLD 1040 is in the rearview mirror...

It "could mean" that the SMOOTHING OUT effect might actually take the market higher, but it could also mean that PRIOR to that, we see some kind of "correction" that balances these momentum waves out a little further...

On Tuesday 21st September 2010, @mrtopstep said:Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad warned the Obama administration today that if Iran's nuclear facilities are attacked, the U.S. will face a war that "would know no boundaries." ABC News

On July 23, AMZN posted what many consider their most disappointing quarter in years. The stock traded down to $100 after the release. Less than 2 months later, AMZN has rallied over 50% to an all time high on no news. Just think about that for a minute. A company with a $68B market cap rallying 50% in 2 months on no news. These are truly historic times we are in.

I could use a stable running back, but I'm also the type who likes to sit around and wait to pick up handcuffs...

For example... REGGIE BUSH went down with a broken fibula yesterday...

Enter - DeShawn Wynn

Mike Tolbert in SD... etc.

So frankly... I'd be most interested in GORE, but to make it a fair trade, I'd probably have to offer somewhat of a lesser replacement value on that... (like Jamaal Charles)... Plus some standout wideouts... (of which I have many)...

yeah, I notice heels as well, and they don't mention it in the article but if heels make one's backside stick out...well then maybe the shoes only get a glance as a result and the eyes are uh...focused elsewhere

you pretty much nailed how I look at my team right now, the one thing I hate about fantasy is picking a DST. I probably should have won my game this week, I made some poor starts, I didn't think Welker was going to score against the Jets, I got stuck on Revis Island.

I picked a lot of RB's on purpose, I knew I'd trade some, the WR position was very deep this year from what I could tell before the draft so I thought this would give me options down the road....or maybe as early as week 3 ;-)

oh yeah, I wasn't worried about Revis guarding Welker, that was a bad attempt at a joke, I thought Cromartie would stuff him though.

Welker said before the game that he thought Cromartie was the "fastest guy in the whole league", I almost read that like he was wimping out before the game started, like the ACL was "in his head", you played sports, you know how you can get yourself screwed up mentally before a game.

the Jets also looked awful in week 1, so i figured they'd be all over him, revis shutting down Moss and the rest of them looking to smash welker.

I overthought the whole thing, he's almost a must start every week Welker.

I'm a bit worried about PSU this weekend against Temple....we didn't look so hot with kent st. last weekend, they won't be able to get away with some of that against Temple, they are a lot better than they used to be.

I'm trying to get some tickets to the night game against Michigan on 10/30

along those lines, it's pretty amazing the speaking fees people can get. My biz partner and I wanted to get a good coach to speak for clients a few years ago, so we looked at guys like Coach K, or Lou Holtz

these guys want a ton of money to speak, we never ended up doing that, i talked instead, just a little less exciting, hahahaha.

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

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This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."