La Liga Best Bets on Thursday

Getafe might be level on points with Levante at the bottom of the table, just two points adrift of safety, but they are, right now, by some distance, the worst team in the Primera. The Madrid-based minnows have been known to get themselves out of the odd sticky situation previously but their 12-year existence in the top flight finally appears to be coming to an end.

And if only to illustrate just how bad they are, punters watching this game could do worse than take a potshot on a resounding home win in the correct score market. Looking at the standard conversions of both my 16-match and 24-match shot ratings, a bet on Real Sociedad to win 4-0 at 25/1 looks like the best option and it fits the pattern of Getafe’s away results quite nicely.

In nine away games against top-half opposition, the Azulones have picked up just one point, scoring three goals and conceding 28. Putting La Real in the same bracket might be considered generous by some, on the basis they just creep into tenth spot (at the start of this round) but their shot data under the guidance of Eusebio Sacristan puts them comfortably in that category.

And it’s not stretching the imagination too wildly to suggest the San Sebastian outfit could be pushing for Champions League football next term, while Getafe are struggling to make their presence felt in the Segunda. With that in mind, don’t be swayed by Getafe’s greater need, be bold and throw a single dart at Real Sociedad rout.

Real Sociedad to win 4-0 - 1pt @ 25/1

Granada v Levante - Thursday 19:30, Sky Sports Xtra

Levante came back from the brink to beat Espanyol last time out, breathing fresh life into their survival bid with a much-needed 2-1 win. Now they look a decent price to follow up by leapfrogging Granada with victory in this six-pointer at Los Carmenes. Take the 16/5 available on Rubi’s men sending a 600-strong travelling army back to Valencia cock-a-hoop.

The Granotes have known for some time that their season is going to go down to the wire, so for them a game of this magnitude is something to relish. And they certainly have the firepower to deliver on their promises of going for broke, with noises coming out of the camp that a point from this game would be considered a disappointment, a result that does them no favours.

There’s not a great deal to pick between the two sides in terms of shot data, with both posting identical expected goals against figures over 16 and 24 matches. The expected goals for column is the difference, particularly since Levante snapped up Giuseppe Rossi in January, and the Italian playmaker could be the decisive figure in this game.