Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 15

The graph and table below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS’s Dave Richard, Fantasy Football Sharks, CBS’s Jamey Eisenberg, ESPN, Fantasy Football Today, Picking Pros, Yahoo Sports and Fox Sports. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the information below, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

Standard Scoring Leagues

From this graph be sure to notice:

Calvin Johnson, Marquess Wilson, Derek Hagan, Percy Harvin and Brandon Marshall are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Greg Jennings and James Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Gordon and Brandon Marshall are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Here is the same information presented in a table:

player

tier

pseudo-median

lower bound

upper bound

Antonio Brown

7

16.0

13.7

17.2

Julio Jones

7

15.7

11.6

18.5

T.Y. Hilton

7

15.5

12.9

17.5

Calvin Johnson

7

15.0

11.4

19.0

Demaryius Thomas

7

15.0

13.6

15.8

Odell Beckham

7

14.9

10.9

17.0

Dez Bryant

7

14.2

12.8

16.0

Alshon Jeffery

7

14.2

12.7

16.0

Emmanuel Sanders

7

13.9

11.8

15.0

Jordy Nelson

7

13.8

12.3

15.5

A.J. Green

6

13.3

10.7

15.2

Mike Evans

6

12.7

10.9

14.0

Jeremy Maclin

6

12.6

11.2

14.0

Randall Cobb

6

12.2

9.7

14.0

Kelvin Benjamin

6

11.8

10.1

13.0

Sammy Watkins

6

11.5

8.7

13.5

DeAndre Hopkins

5

10.8

7.1

13.5

Steve Smith

5

10.7

8.4

13.0

Jordan Matthews

5

10.5

8.4

12.0

Keenan Allen

5

10.3

8.6

13.0

Roddy White

5

10.2

7.5

12.0

Kenny Stills

5

10.1

8.5

12.5

Josh Gordon

5

9.9

5.6

13.0

Martavis Bryant

5

9.9

7.8

11.5

Charles Johnson

5

9.8

7.0

12.5

Golden Tate

5

9.5

7.7

11.4

Brandon LaFell

5

9.2

7.0

12.0

Marques Colston

4

9.2

6.6

12.0

Mike Wallace

4

9.0

7.1

11.0

Julian Edelman

4

8.6

7.6

11.0

Vincent Jackson

4

8.5

7.7

10.5

Anquan Boldin

4

8.1

5.9

10.8

DeSean Jackson

3

7.6

6.0

9.3

Doug Baldwin

3

7.4

5.7

10.2

Eric Decker

3

7.2

6.0

10.2

Jarvis Landry

3

7.2

5.8

8.5

Malcom Floyd

3

7.0

5.5

8.8

Larry Fitzgerald

3

6.8

5.0

9.6

Torrey Smith

3

6.8

4.0

9.6

Allen Hurns

3

6.8

5.0

9.3

Michael Floyd

3

6.4

5.0

9.0

Andre Johnson

3

6.3

4.2

9.0

Donte Moncrief

3

6.2

4.4

9.5

Nate Washington

3

6.2

4.0

7.0

Pierre Garcon

3

6.1

5.7

7.0

Marqise Lee

3

6.0

4.0

8.0

Mohamed Sanu

3

5.9

4.5

7.0

Greg Jennings

2

5.4

4.2

7.0

Kendall Wright

2

5.3

3.0

7.7

Marquess Wilson

2

5.0

2.7

9.0

Eddie Royal

2

5.0

3.5

7.1

James Jones

2

4.9

3.8

7.5

Reggie Wayne

2

4.8

2.8

7.1

John Brown

2

4.7

3.5

7.8

Derek Hagan

2

4.5

2.7

8.0

Percy Harvin

2

3.8

1.0

10.1

Jerricho Cotchery

2

3.5

2.0

5.8

Brandon Marshall

1

0.0

-5.1

5.1

Note that higher tiers are better and that, due to the way the clustering algorithm works, there will not always be players in all 7 tiers.

PPR Leagues

From this graph be sure to notice:

Calvin Johnson, Marquess Wilson, Derek Hagan, Percy Harvin and Brandon Marshall are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Vincent Jackson, Jarvis Landry, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu and DeSean Jackson are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon, Percy Harvin and Brandon Marshall are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.