The World Bank is raising its crude oil price forecast for 2016 to $43 a barrel from $41 dollars after a 37 percent jump in energy prices in the second quarter due principally to disruptions to supply, particularly from wildfires in northwestern Canada and sabotage of oil infrastructure in Nigeria.

The conventional wisdom is that low world prices for oil only hurt rich exporting countries, while generating a windfall for poor net importer economies.

However, in Central Asia, the story is more complicated. This is because the region’s poorer countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, depend critically on Russia through trade and remittances.

Falling remittances, reflecting the weakness of the Russian Ruble

According to just-released Russian Central Bank data, outward remittances from Russia fell sharply in the first half of the year, in USD terms. In the first six months of 2015 (relative to the same time in 2014) private transfers from Russia to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are reported to have fallen by over 45% and 30% respectively. While less exposed, Uzbekistan has experienced a loss of even greater magnitude: -48%.

Recent developments in oil markets have led to intensive debates about OPEC’s viability and its role in the global crude oil market. OPEC, which was founded in 1960 to “coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member states”, currently accounts for about 40 percent of global crude oil production. At present, the organization has 12 active member countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, and Angola.

On a recent rainy Saturday in Istanbul, the mood was so gloomy that a roomful of macro-economists were at pains to admit that the sharp fall in the oil price since June 2014 would actually benefit a lot of people. On display was an impressive assortment of "two handed economists", who saw almost as many losers as winners. They cited negative effects on fiscal balances in oil exporting countries, investment declines because of uncertainty, and demand shortfalls in countries in which consumers are still deleveraging after the Global Crisis. In addition, the gains in many countries would be tempered by government interventions, which may reduce subsidies or raise taxes without translating fiscal space into higher spending.

Private capital flows to developing countries eased in October, but remain close to their highest level in more than a year, led by robust bond issuance by emerging market sovereigns and firms. Business sentiment has strengthened in some countries, including the US and several emerging markets, but remains weak in general amid US “fiscal cliff” and Euro Area risks.

Renewed Euro Area tensions cut into capital flows to developing countries in May and June, and prompted a sharp downturn in business sentiment worldwide. Together these developments point to slower growth in 2012Q2 and Q3, unless recent improvements in financial markets and policy steps cause business sentiment to strengthen.