Jason Altmire alienated labor when he voted against the president’s health care bill. |
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“It wasn’t so much the [health care] vote as it was the broken commitment he made to labor,” said Shea. “That was a sharp stick in the eye.”

Still, his opposition to the bill became the centerpiece of his reelection campaign, leaving raw feelings that haven’t completely subsided, multiple Democrats close to the state’s congressional delegation told POLITICO.

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Critz, on the other hand, enjoys the luxury of never having to vote on the bill: He first won office last May in a special election after Murtha, his longtime boss, died. Labor groups and the national party directed significant resources toward his campaign — and now see Critz as an investment worth protecting.

“I think it’s a strong likelihood that he carries that support into a primary in 2012,” said Hanna, emphasizing that he’s not yet backing either congressman. “[Altmire’s] got a problem within labor. There’s no denying that.”

With lawmakers almost universally hesitant to talk on the record about redistricting scenarios that haven’t yet come to pass, Altmire’s camp declined several requests for comment.

But the outlines of the case each congressman would make are already beginning to emerge.

“Altmire has the advantage of congressional experience and seniority,” said Hanna, explaining the Altmire argument. “Critz has been in office only one year. Those years of experience matter. Despite what labor says, Altmire has established relationships with [constituents] who will still be in the new district.”

Critz has made clear that he didn’t go through the trouble of a hard-fought special election just to step aside a couple of years later.

“Obviously the district we’d prefer is the one that we already have, but regardless of the way the new map is drawn, Congressman Critz is running for reelection in 2012,” spokesman Matt Mazonkey said.

Geography is also likely to be on Critz’s side. His current seat is the more Democratic-leaning district of the two, and the merger of the two districts would very likely include some of the bluest areas of Critz’s district, including his Johnstown home base.

Republicans, taking the same play-it-safe approach to consolidate gains in Pennsylvania as elsewhere, could ultimately benefit if two Democrats who have branded themselves as conservatives suddenly have to change the script and move too far away from the center.

“You just can’t track very far left in western Pennsylvania and expect not to set yourself up in a general election,” said Brock McCleary, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s deputy political director.