My point is that Orchard had a personality cult and brought in a constituency that would otherwise never vote Conservative in their lives.

Quote:

You guys are underestimating the power of Ford Nation. It is Canada version of the Tea Party.

Except that the Tea Party is mostly older, well-off white male Republicans.

I didn't say it was like the Tea Party, but a version of the movement.

Ken Burch wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

Can David Orchard be mobbed by supporters?

Sure....oh, wait a minute, did you mean by his own supporters?

If he had so much popularity why didn't he ever win a leadership? Yeah he came close, but if he had the type of Ford Nation popularity he should have won the leadership of the waning Federal PC party. Instead the only thing he did was stall Peter McKay from winning on the first ballot. He didn't even come second, he came third.

Doug Ford got over 300,000 votes, David Orchard would never get that many votes in a municipal election.

I don't want Doug Ford anywhere near politics. But the NDP need to see Ford Nation as a legitimate threat.

I see Ford as a threat... To destroy the Ontario PC party. Since I do not like that party anyways, I really don't care what he does...and btw people in Mississauga don't always follow hazel mccallions lead. She denounced the Harrris conservatives and yet they still won every single seat in Mississauga.

So she endorsed NO ONE. She didn't take any side, told Mississauga vote who you want.

Then she said two years later

Mississauga, Ontario Mayor Hazel McCallion states that Mike Harris needs to make deeper spending cuts to save the province. "It's going to take a miracle, in my opinion, to solve the debt of this province that former governments have gotten us into", said Mayor Hazel. "Some people think they are doing too much. In my opinion they are not doing enough."

So where is your link - where is your PROOF that Hazel McCallion has already recorded a posthumous robocall for use in 2018 telling people to vote Liberal?...judging from her comments in 1996 it sounds like Hazel actually liked rightwing conservatives who want to massively cut spending - maybe she's a closet Fordist?

So where is your link - where is your PROOF that Hazel McCallion has already recorded a posthumous robocall for use in 2018 telling people to vote Liberal?...judging from her comments in 1996 it sounds like Hazel actually liked rightwing conservatives who want to massively cut spending - maybe she's a closet Fordist?

Re; Robocall being facetious. But wouldn't surprise me if the Libs had something up their sleeves in regards to Hazel.

btw Hazel endorsed Tory for Mayor, Wynne for Premier.

Like it or not Hazel opinion carries weight in Mississauga. When she speaks, Mississauga follows.

Hazel will likely be dead in 2018 and in any case she will have been out of the public eye for several years. She is very much her own person and has stayed very aloof from the parties - she may have backed the Liberals this time mainly because Hudak was so toxic, but on many other occasions she has torn a strip off Liberals. She does what she wants and she doesnt let herself get manipulated by back room strategists.

Meanwhile the early signs on the Tory admninistration are very disturbing. He has already named who will occupy the key positions in his office and all of them are rabiudly rightwing Conservative party hacks who used to work for Tim Hudak and Mike Harris. You might have thought that since Tory tried to reinvent himself as a Liberal in all but name when running for mayor - that he would fill his office with big "L" Liberals and non-partisan centrists - but nooooo instead he appoints CONSERVATIVES...and the early word is that under Tory cronyism is back and he is also hiring back all the corrupt hacks who ran the city during Mel Lastman's failed second term when Lastman was too senile to know what was going on.

The Ontario NDP gained just as many votes in the last election as the Ontario Liberals did. The Liberasls were counting on driving the Ontario NDP down to less than 10% of the vote and losing almost all their seats. In the last week of the campaign when Andrea Horwath exhorted people not to vote out of fear - it worked - NDP support surged in the final week to 24% - highest in 24 years and they held 21 seats - ther Liberals were happy to get a majority but they were CRUSHED by their failure to win back any of the seats they lost to the NDP in byelections and their losses in Windsor and Sudbury.

Meanwhile in Toronto, John Tory shows signs that he will be a CONSERVATIVE mayor - why else is he packing his office with people who worked for Hudak and Harris and not appointed ANYONE with moderate credentials to anything?

Stockholm, you are doing some very creative spinning there for the Ontario NDP.

The Ontario NDP finished 3rd. That's the bottom line. It may have been a better result than what they've had since their peak under Bob Rae, but it was still a disappointing result.

Remember the threads on here predicting that Andrea Horwath was going to be the next Premier of Ontario? She not only didn't finish 1st, she didn't even finish 2nd.

The Ontario NDP was running against a 3-term, tired & scandal-plauged Liberal government and against an unpopular, disliked PC leader. And it still finished 3rd. How would the NDP do if it had to run in less favourable circumstances? Wynne is now getting good reviews and has erased a lot of the McGunity baggage, and the next PC leader may be a lot more articulate and personable than Tim Hudak.

This may have been the best opportunity the Ontario NDP will have to have a major breakthrough for many years.

Ken I've said this already, they need to come up with a better narrative than 'don't vote out of fear'

Two elections (prov & municipal) and they have used that narrative. They have lost both times, BIG time.

It is NOT WORKING

Changing that narrative would be a good start

OK, they should change their narrative to "don't vote out of fear" to "vote for something that's actually a big change for the better". And back that up by offering a bold program that addresses real problems and brings the working-and want-to-be-working poor together in a coalition for restructing life from below.

Ken I've said this already, they need to come up with a better narrative than 'don't vote out of fear'

Two elections (prov & municipal) and they have used that narrative. They have lost both times, BIG time.

It is NOT WORKING

Changing that narrative would be a good start

OK, they should change their narrative to "don't vote out of fear" to "vote for something that's actually a big change for the better". And back that up by offering a bold program that addresses real problems and brings the working-and want-to-be-working poor together in a coalition for restructing life from below.

If they just change to "vote out of fear", that won't help anything.

They also need to change leadership. As nice as Horwath is, she won't be able to compete with Doug Ford in an airwar.

Look at the coverage he got during his years on council. Andrea is only getting one-tenth of that coverage.

For those of you outside of Toronto, you just don't know how dominate the Fords are at grabbing headlines and exploiting issues for their own personal gain.

Ford is also such compulsive liar. Everytime he opens his mouth, another lie pops out. But astonishingly whenever the media confronts him on his, he has such an uncanny ability to deflect any attacks,

The NDP will steamrolled over by Ford, and we all better pray he doesn't run for PC leader.

Would you at least agree that it would be fruitless to use the same tactic you advocated in Toronto...voting for anybody else, even a guy who agrees with Ford on everything(as the candidate you demanded Babblers support does)just for the sake of defeating Ford in name?

The Fords are, after all, just another political family. Toronto proved that beating them in name is nothing.

Would you at least agree that it would be fruitless to use the same tactic you advocated in Toronto...voting for anybody else, even a guy who agrees with Ford on everything(as the candidate you demanded Babblers support does)just for the sake of defeating Ford in name?

The Fords are, after all, just another political family. Toronto proved that beating them in name is nothing.

I wouldn't say it is nothing. Chow finished way behind Ford. And Ford lost by only 7% of the vote. If 65,000 voters swung from Tory to Chow, Ford would be mayor.

You have never explained why you think Tory represnets any improvement over Doug Ford as mayor. Their policies are IDENTICAL - the only differences are that a. Tory is diplomatic enough that he will likely be able to round up the votes to get the Tory/Ford agenda through council and b. Tory is associated wioth more crooks and cronies from the dying days of the Lastman administartion so under him there will be more corruption and nepotism.

You still have not provided any examples of actual POLICIES where Tory is any less bad than Ford - all you do is trot out the fact that a tiny number of "Log Cabin Conservatives" supported him for mayor. There are some self-hating gays that supported George W. Bush in every election too - does make him "gay-positive" - and are there no other issues of any relevance?

Back to the original question - if we are to believe Forum research (always a big IF)...it appeasr that Doug Ford would be a disaster for the Ontario PCs - if he were leader they would collapse to 27% of the vote and only 65% of people who voted PC in June under Tim Hudak would still vote PC with the defectors going about equally to the Liberals and NDP. There is no evidence that a Doug Ford led PC party would draw any new support to the PCs from people who voted NDP in June

Its interesting that supposedly if the Ontario NDP were led by Olivia Chow, it would soar to 28% of the vote and would zoom up to 33% in Toronto! I don't think Chow has any interest in the ONDP leadership - but fwiw, she may have come in third in the mayoralty race, but she would would still be a net asset to the ONDP as leader. Doug Ford - for all the buzz about coming in a stronger second than expected - is still toxic to the PC party and would be a vote killer for them.

Its interesting that supposedly if the Ontario NDP were led by Olivia Chow, it would soar to 28% of the vote and would zoom up to 33% in Toronto! I don't think Chow has any interest in the ONDP leadership - but fwiw, she may have come in third in the mayoralty race, but she would would still be a net asset to the ONDP as leader. Doug Ford - for all the buzz about coming in a stronger second than expected - is still toxic to the PC party and would be a vote killer for them.

And she was leading the polls when she entered the Toronto mayor race. And that changed as well.

Stock I'm done talking to you about this. You have your point, I have mine. At least I back up my points with links and data. While when I ask you for links to back up your narrative, you change the channel.

I'm done with this issue, because you never provide links to back up your narrative. If you feel victorious, enjoy the feeling.

There is zero chance that Olivia Chow has any interest in the Ontario NDP leadership - so its all a game of fantasy football - that being said it is interesting that last week Chow got 23% in the race for mayor - and just days later 33% of Toronto residents would vote for the Ontario NDP if it was led by her...who is that 10% who want her as premier but not as mayor?

There is zero chance that Olivia Chow has any interest in the Ontario NDP leadership - so its all a game of fantasy football - that being said it is interesting that last week Chow got 23% in the race for mayor - and just days later 33% of Toronto residents would vote for the Ontario NDP if it was led by her...who is that 10% who want her as premier but not as mayor?

There is zero chance that Olivia Chow has any interest in the Ontario NDP leadership - so its all a game of fantasy football - that being said it is interesting that last week Chow got 23% in the race for mayor - and just days later 33% of Toronto residents would vote for the Ontario NDP if it was led by her...who is that 10% who want her as premier but not as mayor?

Maybe she'll run federally in University-Rosedale.

Wouldn't Spadina-Fort York be more favourable NDP/Olivia Chow territory?

And perhaps she isn't interested in running for office again so soon and will want a break anyway.

Well he already reduced Olivia Chow to 22% in the City of Toronto. With no money, no staff, no resources, no GOTV, no ground game and no lists. He was within 7% of winning the election with no machine, while Olivia's well oiled and highly paid machine couldn't get above 25%.

In the mayor's race, when compared to the provincial ridings (which match the current fed ridings), she lost her own riding (Trinity-Spadina) to John Tory.

In fact Olivia Chow was wiped out in the old city of Toronto, and only won one riding. Parkdale-High Park, which was where all her support came from.

But good news for Cheri DiNovo

Actually that's not true - Trinity-Spadina is made up of wards 19 and 20. Olivia Chow won ward 19 by a wide margin and ward 20 seesawed and bit and in the end it went to Tory by less than 1% - when you add wards 19 and 20 together - Olivia won, so she did win Trinity-Spadina

There is zero chance that Olivia Chow has any interest in the Ontario NDP leadership - so its all a game of fantasy football - that being said it is interesting that last week Chow got 23% in the race for mayor - and just days later 33% of Toronto residents would vote for the Ontario NDP if it was led by her...who is that 10% who want her as premier but not as mayor?

Maybe she'll run federally in University-Rosedale.

I haven't looked at the poll by poll breakdown from the mayors race, but my sense is that she would have a good chance against Freeland, since she is such an uninspiring candidate.

No way she could take out Vaughan in Spadina-Fort York. Her base is in the North end of Trinity Spadina, not in condoland.

Any momentum for the NDP at all in the next federal election, and Chow would certainly be competitive in University Rosedale. In support of this I offer this comment from Debater that suggests that the Liberals know that Freeland would have difficulty with Chow:

Debater wrote:

What I was saying is that if Olivia were to run again, I think the boundaries of Spadina-Fort York would be more favourable than those of University-Rosedale.

As for the ONDP, the ONDP should have a leadership contest a year and a half away from the next scheduled elections. They need to settle into opposition mode, and see if any new potential leadership candidates come to the fore. Chow might be an option then, but there is little point in turning the present feud into all out war at this point.

This must be one of the stupidest thread titles ever. You just know without reading further that it was originated by TerryT. Can it be changed to something more sensible?

There is a serious issue to be discussed. I agree with Stockholm that The Ford's appeal is largely with a demographic unlikley to vote NDP. If he is leader he may siphon off some right wing Liberal support in the Toronto suburbs and allow the NDP to win seats like York West, the Brampton seats, Rouge River and York South.

I also agree with Stockholm that it is unlikley the Conservatives will choose such a wrecker as Doug Ford.

The NDP can hope for a good result in the next election. The Liberals benefited from a polarization of "progressive" voters vs Hudak. Next time the Cons are unlikley to have so scary a leader. The natural conservatism of the Liberal party is starting to be more obvious, for example with talk about selling off liquor stores. After four years of typical Liberal government Wynne may not be able to play the red door - blue door card so effectively.

In the mayor's race, when compared to the provincial ridings (which match the current fed ridings), she lost her own riding (Trinity-Spadina) to John Tory.

In fact Olivia Chow was wiped out in the old city of Toronto, and only won one riding. Parkdale-High Park, which was where all her support came from.

But good news for Cheri DiNovo

Actually that's not true - Trinity-Spadina is made up of wards 19 and 20. Olivia Chow won ward 19 by a wide margin and ward 20 seesawed and bit and in the end it went to Tory by less than 1% - when you add wards 19 and 20 together - Olivia won, so she did win Trinity-Spadina

But the map below does't recognize her as winning T-S. It shows that she lost it. A win for a fed riding means you have to win both wards.

We can argue back and forth, but most pundits have said you have to win both wards, to call it a riding win. Since that didn't happen they see it as a loss.

I DO NOT want to get into a back and forth on this as you see it as a win, so we can agree to disagree.

Let's not go into circles, you have your POV & I respect that. Agree to disagree.

There is a serious issue to be discussed. I agree with Stockholm that The Ford's appeal is largely with a demographic unlikley to vote NDP. If he is leader he may siphon off some right wing Liberal support in the Toronto suburbs and allow the NDP to win seats like York West, the Brampton seats, Rouge River and York South.

At one point in the race Doug Ford was pulling more support from identified NDP voters than Olivia Chow! Early in the campaign almost 25% of committed NDP supporters were supporting Rob Ford. Horwath move to a populist platform was a strategy. She almost saw the NDP support Ford Nation was pulling, and she wanted a piece of the action to.

They both appeal to the working class & low-income, frustrated by the elites in Government.

The difference is the Fords are able to exploit that better

nicky wrote:

I also agree with Stockholm that it is unlikley the Conservatives will choose such a wrecker as Doug Ford.

But they are also HUNGRY to get back into power. After 11 years in opposition, who wouldn't want to make a deal with the devil? Power is all that matters. They need urban support, the cities. They already have their rural support. Now they need to break through into the cities. Those wards Doug Ford swept in urban Toronto, when compared to the provincial ridings, cannot be ignored.

nicky wrote:

The NDP can hope for a good result in the next election. The Liberals benefited from a polarization of "progressive" voters vs Hudak. Next time the Cons are unlikley to have so scary a leader. The natural conservatism of the Liberal party is starting to be more obvious, for example with talk about selling off liquor stores. After four years of typical Liberal government Wynne may not be able to play the red door - blue door card so effectively.

The only way they can do that is choose a new leader to go head to head with Ford. If he becomes leader, he will dominate TV coverage and Horwath will be an afterthought. She will turn into the invisible leader.

A new leader, new vision and a complete overall is necessary for the surivial of the NDP at this point.

If not a good chunck of their vote will go to Ford, with the rest going to the Liberals to STOP Ford.

But they are also HUNGRY to get back into power. After 11 years in opposition, who wouldn't want to make a deal with the devil? Power is all that matters. They need urban support, the cities. They already have their rural support. Now they need to break through into the cities. Those wards Doug Ford swept in urban Toronto, when compared to the provincial ridings, cannot be ignored.

Yes, the PCs want to win again and they need to win Toronto - but rather than immolate themselves with a hyena like Doug Ford - they will instead look at all the areas where their former leader John Tory won and they will pick someone like Christine Elliott or Vic Fedeli who can appeal to the kinds of people who supported Tory for mayor (minus the people who would have preferred Chow if they thought she could win).

Perhaps "terrytowel" should start a movement encouraging people to buy memberships in the PC Party of Ontario for no other reason that the NOT vote for Doug Ford if he runs for their leadership...of course if you do that you will end up on the mailing list of just about every rightwing cause in the province and get vast numbers of phone calls and e-mails asking for your support!

Horwath sells very well with autoworkers in Oshawa and cab drivers in Brampton...she doesn't sell so well among professors of Marxist theory at York U who live in the Annex

Not sure if this is a dig at Panitch or not, but incidentally "York U" people have done quite well as NDP leaders. Broadbent taught political theory there before going into politics (and his partner is Marxist political theorist Ellen Wood). Jack Layton did his Ph.D. at York.