Gdmfx - Daily News

Forex New: The pair had a wild day yesterday, characterized by Euro Zone optimism which took price higher but was soon followed by a sharp reversal triggered partly by a better than expected value of the US Retail Sales.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price printed a new high at 1.3965 but the Dollar strengthened after the US data came out and 1.3914 (previous high) was broken to the down side. The latest fall opens the door for a break of 1.3830 support, a fact which would represent a major victory for the bears. Note that the drop didn’t occur immediately after the release of the US Retail Sales so technical reasons, not only fundamental were responsible for it, a fact which makes us believe that high prices were hard to sustain, the bullish trend was overextended and the market was in need of a strong move to the south which may turn into a full scale reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

At 07:00 am GMT the German Final Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.2%. The indicator is Germany’s main inflation gauge but it is usually overshadowed by the Preliminary version which is released about 15 days earlier; however, higher values have the potential to strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to increase from the previous 81.2 to 81.9; higher levels of consumer confidence are indicative of future increases in consumer spending which is vital for the economy so US Dollar strength is anticipated if higher values will be posted.

GBP/USD

The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls on the back of speculation that Bank of England will raise the Interest Rate sooner than estimated but the day finished with a stronger US Dollar and a bearish move which nullified the Pound’s previous gains.

Technical Outlook

The recent encounter with the support located at 1.6600 resulted in a bounce higher which broke 1.6650 decisively to the upside; however, the rally was sharply reversed and price moved lower, in close vicinity to 1.6600. All this goes to show that indecision still rules the pair but the bears can make a decisive move today if they manage to break 1.6600 support and finish the week below it. We slightly favor this scenario and anticipate a break of 1.6600 but we acknowledge the fact that bulls still have underlying strength and may take the pair north.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom releases the Trade Balance today at 09:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and higher readings are beneficial for the Pound. Today’s expected value is -8.7B while the previous was -7.7B but the indicator is not considered a market mover and the impact is usually mild. The US Confidence indicator will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement as well.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex Technical Analysis: Trading was affected last week by growing tensions regarding the Ukraine crisis which generated choppy price action and a lot of reversals. US economic data was mixed and contributed to the pair’s lack of clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The fact that bulls managed to keep price above 1.3830 for an entire week and also printed a new high at 1.3965, shows that the uptrend is still not exhausted. If this new high will be broken again this week, the next level of interest to the upside is the psychological resistance located at 1.4000 which is also a big round number and this kind of levels tend to have great importance for price action. Although the pair is in an uptrend, a move below 1.3830 would be proof of bear-strength and would make 1.3710 the next target of the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The first day of the week brings us the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is the most important gauge of inflation but it tends to have a limited impact on the pair because the German CPI (which accounts for the major part of European inflation) was already released. Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the main European event while the US will release the Consumer Price Index which, as mentioned before, has high inflationary implications.

Wednesday has the potential to be the most volatile day of the week and all eyes will be on the US for the release of the Interest Rate, FOMC’s Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference. The press conference is likely to be a huge market mover, especially in its second part when Janet Yellen will answer audience questions. The Fed will also decide whether they will further adjust the monetary stimulus program or not, an issue which has been a top concern of market participants and is likely to generate tremendous volatility.

Thursday the US Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released, offering insights into the situation of the housing market and the progress of the manufacturing sector. The last important event of the week comes out Friday in the form of the Euro Zone Trade Balance which shows the difference between imported and exported goods. The impact of this indicator is not always high, especially if the actual number is close to the forecast.

GBP/USD

The beginning of last week was characterized by a strong move lower which took the pair close to 1.6600 support but for the rest of the week, the bears struggled without success to continue the move and break the mentioned level.

Technical Outlook

The balance of power starts to shift in favor of the bears although the pair is still in a range defined by 1.6750 resistance and 1.6600 support. Important to note is the fact that last week price moved up after a touch of 1.6600 but the bears quickly took it back down, resulting in a Daily pin candle (Thursday). Pin bars usually indicate rejection and in this particular case, a move south is expected, but the fundamental aspect of the week will have an important role and may change this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday in London at the Annual Mais Lecture. His speeches are potential market movers and the market often reacts to his attitude or to clues about future interest rates. Wednesday the Band of England will make public the Minutes of their latest Meeting; the Claimant Count Change which is released the same day will offer insights into the British jobs situation. These are the main events for the Pound but the pair will be directly affected by the US data released throughout the week.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Monday’s trading session was characterized by an irregular market and although the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index posted a lower than anticipated value, the pair moved higher. Following a weekend referendum, Crimea decided to join Russia, a fact which escalated tensions between the West and the East, creating a difficult trading environment.

Technical Outlook

Technical Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index don’t offer a lot of clues regarding the pair’s next move and lately the pair has been ranging and reversing a lot. Rumors and speculation drive price rather than technical reasons and that’s why extra caution is needed in periods like these. The main levels of importance remain 1.3965 as resistance and 1.3830 as major support but our bias for the pair is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released today at 10:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from 55.7 to 52.8. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as the indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors who are highly informed about the political situation of the country due to the nature of their jobs. At 12:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which acts as the main inflation gauge and has the ability to influence strongly the pair’s movement. For today’s release a decrease is expected, from the previous 1.6% to 1.2% but usually higher values are beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

Although the American Industrial Production indicator posted better numbers, the bulls couldn’t make a decisive move and yesterday’s price action was characterized by a bounce off 1.6600 which failed to be continued to the upside and encountered resistance at 1.6650.

Technical Outlook

For yet another day the pair struggled to move outside the small range created between 1.6650 and 1.6600 but failed to do so. Usually after extended periods of relative inactivity, price tends to move strongly so the next clear breakout will most likely be a real one. We still favor slightly the short side so if 1.6600 will be broken, we believe the move will be continued lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic indicator releases but BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak today in London at 5:45 pm GMT. Although this is not a high-profile speech, volatility may be experienced at the time. The US events and tensions in Crimea will affect the pair’s movement as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Friday we had a slow trading session, with price retracing higher as anticipated but the lack of major economic data releases translated into a movement of less than 50 pips for the entire day. Overall, it was a calm end to a very busy week.

Technical Outlook

From a Daily chart perspective, the market is in a clear uptrend, however on the lower time frames, a down trend is starting to form. For today’s trading session we anticipate moves lower and a potential break of the support zone created around 1.3760, a fact which would open the door for a touch of 1.3710 major support. To the up side, the first major resistance sits at 1.3830 but we don’t expect a bullish break of this level unless surprising numbers are posted for today’s economic indicators.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMI which is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector. The anticipated figure is 54.7, a slight decrease from the previous 54.8 and under normal circumstances, better than anticipated values are beneficial for the Euro. The US Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 1:45 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 56.6, a decrease from the previous 57.1. Similar to the German PMI, better numbers can strengthen the currency and take the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly sideways during Friday’s trading session, a fact which was mainly due to the lackluster fundamental scene and lack of economic indicator releases.

Technical Outlook

Price traded for the entire Friday session very close to the support created at 1.6480, in a very small range, a fact which doesn’t offer a lot of hints about today’s potential direction. However, lately the bears have been in control of the pair and the chart doesn’t show strong signs of bullish moves so we anticipate a break of 1.6480 minor support if the US Manufacturing PMI doesn’t post a surprising number.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow day in terms of economic indicator releases and the focus will be on the US data and on the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Yesterday an emergency G7 meeting was held in The Hague to discuss potential sanctions against Russia for the takeover of Crimea and this triggered a strong move up which took the pair above 1.3830.

Technical Outlook

Before the G7 meeting, the pair moved lower on the back or worse than expected German data but now the picture is unclear once again. The rise was not generated entirely by technical reasons so the break of 1.3830 can be a false one and price is likely to move below this level once again if things calm down on the political scene. The support located at 1.3760 was touched for a second time today without being broken so now its importance has increased and a potential break will weigh more for short term price action; however, if the bulls can maintain price above 1.3830 the bearish momentum will start to fade away.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important indicators are released today: the first is the German Ifo Business Climate which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 7,000 businesses and has the potential to take the pair higher if better values are posted. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.9, a slight decrease from last month’s 111.3. The second indicator is the US Consumer Confidence which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT with an estimated increase to 78.7 from the previous 78.1. If consumers are optimistic about economic conditions, they are likely to spend more and consumer spending is of crucial importance to the US economy so higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Price moved mostly sideways before the G7 meeting but a fast rise ended this calm behavior. The US data didn’t have a notable impact on the pair and the highlight of the day was the whipsaw seen during the G7 meeting.

Technical Outlook

The technical aspect of the market is overshadowed at the moment by the political developments but it is important to acknowledge the fact that bulls couldn’t sustain the high price generated by the G7 meeting. This shows us that bears still have underlying strength and that lower prices are a distinct possibility. The first support is located at 1.6480 while resistance sits at 1.6600 but our technical bias is neutral considering the current political situation.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom announces today at 9:30 am GMT the Consumer Price Index which is the prime inflation gauge and is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made. A higher inflation can determine the BoE to raise the interest rate and this is the reason why higher than expected values for today’s release can strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. The anticipated value is 1.7%, a decrease from the current 1.9%. The pair will be directly affected by the US releases and by political events.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was choppy and characterized by a lot of back and forth movement. Germany’s Business Climate came out with a value which was very close to the expected one but the US Consumer Confidence posted a better reading, strengthening the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

The US Dollar strength generated by the Consumer Confidence release took the pair down into the support located at 1.3760 but price bounced higher from there and the pair experienced another encounter with 1.3830 resistance. This up and down movement doesn’t offer many clues about future direction but is likely to come to an end today and 1.3830 or 1.3760 will probably be broken. The direction of the break however, is harder to predict, considering yesterday’s wild movement. We slightly favor the short side but a lot will depend on the outcome of the US data release.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are announced and expected to increase substantially from the previous -1.0% to 1.1%. Such an increase would most likely strengthen the US Dollar because more orders for durable goods suggest that producers will intensify their activity to fill those orders. Also, because durable goods are more expensive than normal ones, a rise in demand for such goods indicates consumer confidence regarding the current and future economic conditions.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index was released yesterday with the anticipated value of 1.7% and the market did not react strongly, mainly because the value didn’t come as a surprise. Overall we had a bullish day but trading on the lower time frames was rather difficult.

Technical Outlook

Although the last couple of days have been characterized by market indecision and choppy price action, we anticipate a move below the support located at 1.6480. This bearish bias is mostly based on the fact that medium term control still belongs to the bears and we consider the latest rise just a normal retracement after price moved strongly in one direction. To the north, the first resistance is located at 1.6600 and a move above it would make us reassess our bearish stance.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the US economic indicator and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Price confined between support and resistance. A breakout is imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s release of the US Durable Goods Orders didn’t do much to affect the pair although the indicator posted much better than anticipated numbers. However, the US Dollar strengthened throughout the day but price action was characterized by some sharp turns on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

After price tried a second time to break the resistance located at 1.3830 but failed, the bears seem to be taking back control of the pair. If this is the case, we will probably see a break of the support located at 1.3760 and a continued move lower, towards 1.3710. For the moment, 1.3830 is still strong resistance but a break would be indicative of a shift of bias and a potential resumption of the long term uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Unemployment Claims are released, with an anticipated increase from last week’s 320K to 326K, a fact which would probably weaken the US Dollar because a higher number of unemployed people, suggests that consumer spending may decrease in the near future. The US Pending Home Sales are announced at 2:00 pm GMT with no change anticipated from the current 0.1%; better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the greenback as home purchases are usually made during times of economic expansion.

GBP/USD

The pair moved on a bullish path for the entire day and price came close to 1.6600 resistance. The bullish sentiment was triggered by speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy continues to recover.

Technical Outlook

An encounter with 1.6600 resistance seems almost imminent but if it occurs we expect a bounce lower. Since the beginning of the month the pair has been moving in a bearish manner and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is close to overbought territory so moves lower after a touch of resistance have a higher probability. A break to the up side of 1.6600 would make 1.6650 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day for the pair will be the release of the UK Retail Sales which is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. Analysts’ forecast a rise from the previous -1.5% to 0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound because retail sales represent the majority of consumer spending. US unemployment and house-market data will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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Forex News: Price action governed by German inflation data and British GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The anticipated breakout occurred yesterday and price moved below minor support although the US data was mixed and rather inconclusive. Overall price action moved steady to the down side and wasn’t characterized by sharp turns.

Technical Outlook

The move below 1.3760 opens the door for an encounter with 1.3710 major support but before this can happen, we anticipate another touch from below of the recently broken level. If this potential touch will trigger a bounce lower, the chances for a bearish break of 1.3710 will increase. Today’s price direction will be highly affected by the German CPI release and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Consumer Price Index which is the main measure of inflation for the German economy will be released today at 1:00 pm GMT. German inflation accounts for the major part of European inflation and higher values will be countered by the ECB with a rate adjustment. For today’s release, a small decrease is anticipated from the previous 1.2% to 1.1%, a fact which would be detrimental for the Euro and may take the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened substantially yesterday on the back of a much better than anticipated value of the UK Retail Sales. The pair’s movement was clearly bullish and the major level of 1.6600 was broken.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s developments shifted control in favor of the bulls, but for the moment we must wait and see if they can keep price above 1.6600 or if we are dealing with a false break. The resistance located at 1.6650 was also touched but price immediately bounced lower and the Relative Strength Index is returning from overbought territory so moves lower are a distinct possibility.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Final version of UK’s Gross Domestic Product is released. Although this version doesn’t have such a high impact as the preliminary GDP, strong moves are expected, considering the fact that the GDP is the primary gauge of an economy’s performance. No change is anticipated from the previous 0.7%, but usually higher values are beneficial for the Pound and can take the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Friday’s release of the German Consumer Price Index didn’t have the usual impact on price direction and the pair moved up although the CPI value was worse than anticipated. This is partly attributed to the fact that some market participants were anticipating an even lower value than the actual one.

Technical Outlook

After an almost perfect bounce off 1.3710, price moved to touch 1.3760 resistance but the bulls couldn’t continue the momentum and the pair finished the week trading between the two levels. On the Hourly chart above, the pair is in a down trend, a fact which favors moves south but keep in mind that on higher time frames an uptrend is established. This makes the picture somewhat unclear and we believe that today’s direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Zone Core Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and a lower value is expected: 0.8% (previous is 1.0%). The CPI is widely regarded as the prime inflation gauge and the Core version excludes energy and food from calculation, thus giving a more accurate assessment of current conditions. Usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today in Chicago at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference. The event is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and can trigger strong movement although the currency market is not the main subject of her speech.

GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product released Friday posted the anticipated value and as a result the market didn’t react strongly. However, the pair slowly climbed for almost the entire day and the week finished near resistance.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s rally took the pair in close vicinity of 1.6650 resistance for the second time in a short while. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is indicating an overbought condition so further moves up will encounter increased resistance but this overbought state of the market is not a clear indication of bearish moves as oscillators can remain above the overbought level for an extended time. The main levels to watch today are 1.6650 as resistance and 1.6600 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the value of the Net Lending to Individuals. Although it is not considered a high-impact indicator, higher values usually strengthen the Pound because they suggest that consumers are confident in economic conditions and are willing to spend more money. The consensus value is 2.3B while previous was 2.1B.

At 5:15 pm GMT Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak at a press conference in London. As always, his public speeches can turn into market movers if the monetary policy topic is touched.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Intraday trading was made difficult yesterday by the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which generated a massive whipsaw. The lower-than-expected value posted by the indicator initially took price lower but soon after the pair rallied above resistance.

Technical Outlook

After the touch of 1.3710 which occurred last week, the bears seemed to have lost their control over the pair and at the moment the bulls dictate direction, despite disappointing data for the Euro. The level of 1.3760 was broken to the upside and now price returned close to it for a re-test; we anticipate a move higher, possibly close to the resistance located at 1.3830 but a lot depends on the fundamental data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 7:15 am GMT the Spanish Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from 52.5 to 52.9; half an hour later the same indicator but for the Italian economy is released and expected to slightly decrease from 52.3 to 52.2. Both these indicators are surveys based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and have the potential to strengthen the Euro if better numbers are posted. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI comes out, with an estimated increase from the previous 53.2 to 54.2. Similar to the other two indicators, higher values usually strengthen the currency.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb yesterday and broke the resistance level located at 1.6650 on the back of speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy keeps improving.

Technical Outlook

Although the latest movement favors the bulls, the Relative Strength Index has been hovering above the 70 level for a few days and a move lower is probable. The first barrier for this potential move lower is located at 1.6650, followed by 1.6600, while 1.6750 is the main resistance in front of rising prices, although we don’t anticipate such a strong rally unless surprising numbers are posted for today’s economic indicators.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and estimated to slightly decrease from 56.9 to 56.7. The indicator is based on the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts better than anticipated numbers. US data will also affect the pair’s behavior.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: The Manufacturing PMIs released yesterday didn’t have a huge impact on the pair, mostly because their value was close to the anticipated one and as a result, price moved in a narrow, 50 pip range.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price traveled north, towards the resistance located at 1.3830 but the day was slow, as mentioned before. The four hour candles show long wicks at their upper side, a fact which indicates rejection and a potential move lower but the Relative Strength Index didn’t reach an overbought condition so the bullish move might continue until 1.3830 is reached. To the down side, 1.3760 remains support, followed by 1.3710.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases and the most important data of the day comes from the United States in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change. This report is released by a privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing Inc.) and shows changes in the number of employed persons during the previous month. Today’s indicator is less important than the Government issued data which comes out Friday but a higher value is regarded as beneficial for the US economy and has the potential to bring the pair lower. The time of the release is 12:15 pm GMT and the expected number is 192K, a hefty increase from the previous 139K.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations and this weakened the Pound throughout the day, allowing the pair to move lower and to break the minor support located at 1.6650.

Technical Outlook

For a few days the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition and yesterday the pair retraced lower, partially helped by this state of the indicator. However, lately the pair was controlled by the bulls and yesterday’s move might be just a retracement, especially if price will quickly move above 1.6650. Important support sits at 1.6600 and a move below it would put the bears in short term control of the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT, with an anticipated increase from 62.6 to 63.1. The construction sector is an important part of the British economy and higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the Pound. The US release mentioned earlier will also have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: A crucial day for the Euro – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved lower yesterday after the ADP Non Farm Employment report posted a reading of 191K, very close to the anticipated 192K. Although the number wasn’t better than anticipated, it was still a hefty increase from the previous value and the US dollar strengthened as a result.

Technical Outlook

The drop seen yesterday is a sign that bears are trying to take back control of the pair but the support located at 1.3760 couldn’t be broken, despite the strength exhibited by the greenback. If this support level is not broken quickly and price stalls or even bounces higher, it could be a sign that Euro still has underlying strength and that moves higher could follow. We have a very important day ahead as the ECB announces the Rate decision and S/R levels will probably be broken but the direction depends mainly on what ECB President Mario Draghi will say during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce the Euro Zone Interest Rate today at 11:45 am GMT (no change expected from the current 0.25%) but the main event of the day is the Press Conference which follows at 12:30 pm GMT. During this press conference, Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then he will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the conference is usually the one that creates the strongest moves as traders try to interpret his attitude and find hints about the Euro’s next direction.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s construction PMI released yesterday posted a lower than anticipated value, generating a weakening of the Pound. Good US employment data strengthened the US Dollar but although all ingredients were present for a major drop, this did not occur and the pair had slow movement.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.6650 but the overall movement is sideways and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition of the market so it doesn’t offer many clues regarding the next move and at the moment our bias is neutral on the pair, expecting a strong move in either direction. The main levels are 1.6600 as support, and 1.6750 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, but no change is expected from the current 58.2. A higher reading is regarded as beneficial for the Pound as the survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as an indicator of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: The ECB Interest Rate remained unchanged as expected but Mario Draghi’s comments about “unconventional” measures against deflation were perceived as bearish for the Euro and took the pair into major support.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move puts the bears back in control of the pair, but an important barrier sits in front of falling prices: the support level located at 1.3710. If this support will be broken today, the next medium term target is 1.3550 but for the moment the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory and support is still intact so retracements higher are possible. Today is an important day as US employment data is released and will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the US Non Farm Employment report is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is 199k, an increase from the previous 175K. Rising levels of employment are crucial for the American economy and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future, a fact considered bullish by market participants. Almost always this indicator is a huge market mover and has a major impact on price action so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

Throughout yesterday’s trading session the pair had a bearish behavior, moving south of 1.6600 support on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the British Services PMI.

Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish and price broke 1.6600 to the down side once again. Under normal circumstances, this move could be easily continued during today’s trading session but the release of the US employment report will be the main event of the day and will probably dictate direction. The most important levels to watch are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6480 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic data and all focus will be on the US Non Farm Employment Change which has the potential to strengthen or weaken the greenback considerably, thus affecting the pair directly.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Pound highly affected by two important economic indicators

EUR/USD

Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the bulls were in control of the pair’s movement and managed to take price above 1.3710. The German Industrial Production indicator posted a reading close to estimates and didn’t affect price action substantially.

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition signaled previously by the Relative Strength Index helped the bulls to take price above 1.3710 yesterday and for today’s trading session we anticipate a touch of 1.3760 followed by a move lower, possibly into 1.3700 zone again. If the RSI becomes overbought in the mean time, chances of a drop will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Job Openings will be released today at 2:00 pm GMT, with an anticipated increase from the previous 3.97M to 3.99M. This is not a high impact indicator but it is focused on the jobs sector which is always important for the US economy and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair experienced a bullish trading session yesterday and moved above major resistance once again. Although price moved in a single direction for almost the entire day, the distance traveled was not huge and overall, trading was calm.

Technical Outlook

For today’s trading session we anticipate a move lower, below 1.6600 but before that happens, a touch of 1.6650 resistance is a strong possibility. Neither bulls nor bears are in clear control of the pair but a decisive move below 1.6600 will make 1.6480 the next lower target. The United Kingdom has a busy day ahead in terms of economic releases so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

UK’s Manufacturing Production will be released today at 8:30 am GMT; the forecast is a slight decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would weaken the Pound since the manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy and makes up for about 80% of the entire Industrial production. The second important release of the day is the NIESR estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 0.8% and higher values will probably take the pair north, on the back of Pound strength.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar exhibited weakness against most of its counterparts and this allowed the Euro to take the pair higher, above the resistance located at 1.3760. Throughout the day the bulls showed almost complete control of the pair.

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls are in control of short term movement, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has moved above the level of 70, a fact which indicates an overbought market. This implies that retracements lower might occur today, especially if the pair touches 1.3830. The level of 1.3760 will probably become support and has the ability to reject price higher.

Fundamental Outlook

An important US event is scheduled today at 6:00 pm GMT: the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details about the latest Fed Meeting and the reasons that influenced the votes regarding the Federal Funds Rate. Hints about future monetary decisions may also be present, a fact which highly influences the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production surprisingly increased from the anticipated 0.3% to 1.0% and the Pound strengthened substantially as a result. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and resistance levels were broken with ease.

Technical Outlook

Considering the latest strength showed by the Pound, we anticipate a move above 1.6750 resistance but before that can happen, a bearish retracement is expected. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, a fact which adds to our belief that a move lower will occur before other advances will take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Trade Balance which tracks the difference between imported and exported goods. Although it is considered a medium impact indicator, surprising numbers can move the pair significantly. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated number is -9.3B, an increase from the previous -9.8B. Of course, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will have a direct impact on price direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.