Is the Recession Over?

Dennis Kneale, bullish commentator on CNBC presented his case on why he thinks the recession is over:

Positive Technical Indicators: Kneale points out that in recent history when the 50-day moving price average cuts upward through the 200-day moving average there is a positive directional bias for the market in the ensuing months.

Personal Income: +1.4% in May for 2 consecutive months.

Personal Spending: Consumer spending was up again in May, and up more than in April.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The survey rose again to a reading of 70.8 in the recent measurement period.

VIX Volatity Index: The so called “Fear Index” is down -43% in about 3 months – stabilizing to a more normalized level. He argues this should bring in some cash on the sidelines into the stock market.

Eric Schmidt Positive: CEO of search giant, Google, says the worst is behind for the U.S. economy.

Most of the guests rang a more cautious tone, not the least of which, Peter Schiff sees Armageddon ahead for the U.S. economy. Mr. Schiff goes on to compare CNBC to the Gardening channel with all the talk about “green shoots.” Not to mention, he sees the trillions of stimulus dollars only providing a temporary, artificial boost that will eventually cause a horrible economic hangover. Lucky for Peter, he has perfectly timed the international rebound in 2009…cough, cough.

[…] by the timing or magnitude of the rebound (I was writing about the steepening yield curve and the end of the recession last June and July, respectively). Sometimes, the farther you fall, the higher you will bounce. […]