But, even so, 17.8% OTA reliant, means that 82.2% is the "pay" market, so it is still worth focusing there first.

The OTA market is *probably* broken into the following sub-segments:

1. My dad ("why would I pay for TV when I can get it for free") - not a Tivo target demographic.
2. The angry people ("I'm mad as hell for having to pay monthly for crap and I'm not gonna take it any more") - Also not a Tivo demographic
3. The apathetic ("yeah, I know there is more out there but all of this stuff is a hassle and I don't understand it") Basically the OTA equivalent of people that have been renting the same cable boxes for their tube TVs for 20 years (i.e. my sister) - Could be a Tivo demographic but they would need to do a hard sell job (i.e. expensive marketing)
4. The people who can't afford anything above OTA (whether they want it or not) - Not a Tivo demographic.
5. The techie crowd who is cutting the cable and finding alternatives - defnitiely a Tivo demographic.

I am in tech marketing (but not the tivo world) so I can't really say out of the 17.8% how much are in #5 vs. the other 4 groups. I would guess (with no facts to back it up) that #3 and #4 are the largest chunk of the OTA market. In 2011 the poverty threshold was ~15% of the population. Based on the fact ~96% of the population has a TV, if you assume the 4% without are below the poverty line, then the other 11% have TVs. That slice of 96% is ~11.5%, meaning that basically all of the other groups have to share ~6%.

While the OTA market may be growing quickly, I think it boils down to how you define it and increases off of small numbers can be big.

But, again, this is not my expertise, I am just fascinated by numbers and statistics. You can always get them to say whatever you want if you torture them enough.

or OTA and Satellite - heck it hasn't been that many years that you could even get locals on Satellite.

I only have OTA and access to people with Satellite do cable operators rebroadcast all the sub channels (satellite does not)? Seems like someone must believe someone is watching all those sub-channels as they seem to have plenty of advertising.

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Yeah, cable has them all. What a waste of bandwidth those things are, all garbage, and obviously not HD. They should cut those things off nationwide and go to straight up 19mbps HD streams. That would make antennas even more awesome.

Most of these "journalists " know little of what they type. That goes for all news sites and especially TV . Trust the word of the stranger on the tivo forum than the "journalist" . At least the stranger on the net doesn't have a history of blatantly lying to you and giving false information.

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I just got mine hooked up today and you can't manage SP from it, just like the Engadget article reported.

But, even so, 17.8% OTA reliant, means that 82.2% is the "pay" market, so it is still worth focusing there first.

The OTA market is *probably* broken into the following sub-segments:

1. My dad ("why would I pay for TV when I can get it for free") - not a Tivo target demographic.
2. The angry people ("I'm mad as hell for having to pay monthly for crap and I'm not gonna take it any more") - Also not a Tivo demographic
3. The apathetic ("yeah, I know there is more out there but all of this stuff is a hassle and I don't understand it") Basically the OTA equivalent of people that have been renting the same cable boxes for their tube TVs for 20 years (i.e. my sister) - Could be a Tivo demographic but they would need to do a hard sell job (i.e. expensive marketing)
4. The people who can't afford anything above OTA (whether they want it or not) - Not a Tivo demographic.
5. The techie crowd who is cutting the cable and finding alternatives - defnitiely a Tivo demographic.

I am in tech marketing (but not the tivo world) so I can't really say out of the 17.8% how much are in #5 vs. the other 4 groups. I would guess (with no facts to back it up) that #3 and #4 are the largest chunk of the OTA market. In 2011 the poverty threshold was ~15% of the population. Based on the fact ~96% of the population has a TV, if you assume the 4% without are below the poverty line, then the other 11% have TVs. That slice of 96% is ~11.5%, meaning that basically all of the other groups have to share ~6%.

While the OTA market may be growing quickly, I think it boils down to how you define it and increases off of small numbers can be big.

But, again, this is not my expertise, I am just fascinated by numbers and statistics. You can always get them to say whatever you want if you torture them enough.

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My GF is a #1 "why would I pay for TV when I can get it for free". But she loves her Series 3 TiVos with OTA channels. She would not want to go back to watching TV without a TiVo.

No evidence, but I suspect cable-cutters are more reliant on Tivo than cable subscribers. Cable customers typically have access to On Demand Services, so a DVR is no longer as necessary. With OTA, I need to time shift pretty much everything I watch, so for that the Tivo (or some equivalent) is essential. Hulu has limited access to broadcast programming, and that is at the whim of the content provider. Content providers rarely provide streamed content of their shows on their own websites, or only provide one episode; some stream just a few shows of a new series to hook the public into going to cable to watch it (like Psych for example).

With OTA, many shows are 'stacked' on the most popular days/slots, so I could do with at least three tuners to cover everything I want to watch. I hope Tivo will not abandon OTA customers completely; if they do, that will leave some room for another company to develop such a DVR, or else users will be forced to build their own.

No evidence, but I suspect cable-cutters are more reliant on Tivo than cable subscribers. Cable customers typically have access to On Demand Services, so a DVR is no longer as necessary. With OTA, I need to time shift pretty much everything I watch, so for that the Tivo (or some equivalent) is essential. Hulu has limited access to broadcast programming, and that is at the whim of the content provider. Content providers rarely provide streamed content of their shows on their own websites, or only provide one episode; some stream just a few shows of a new series to hook the public into going to cable to watch it (like Psych for example).

With OTA, many shows are 'stacked' on the most popular days/slots, so I could do with at least three tuners to cover everything I want to watch. I hope Tivo will not abandon OTA customers completely; if they do, that will leave some room for another company to develop such a DVR, or else users will be forced to build their own.

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i have never between all of the cable companies and even sat companies used On Demand. no one in my family has.

No evidence, but I suspect cable-cutters are more reliant on Tivo than cable subscribers. Cable customers typically have access to On Demand Services, so a DVR is no longer as necessary. With OTA, I need to time shift pretty much everything I watch, so for that the Tivo (or some equivalent) is essential. Hulu has limited access to broadcast programming, and that is at the whim of the content provider. Content providers rarely provide streamed content of their shows on their own websites, or only provide one episode; some stream just a few shows of a new series to hook the public into going to cable to watch it (like Psych for example).

With OTA, many shows are 'stacked' on the most popular days/slots, so I could do with at least three tuners to cover everything I want to watch. I hope Tivo will not abandon OTA customers completely; if they do, that will leave some room for another company to develop such a DVR, or else users will be forced to build their own.

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OnDemand is a supplement to a DVR, not a replacement. Something like 75% of content isn't available, even on XoD, which has the biggest selection. I'm CableCard, so I don't have XoD, and I really don't miss it.

I have more faith in TiVo's judgment and instinct for self-preservation than you do. They're not stupid enough to write off the growing OTA market and put themselves totally at the mercy of the cable companies.

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We'll see what they do. I haven't watched on OTA broadcast in years, so it doesn't matter to me.

One of the main motivators of "cord-cutters" is cutting costs. Hard to see someone thumbing their nose at even "lifeline" cable and then ponying up hundreds of dollars for TiVo hardware and paying monthly fees, but I'm sure those people are out there. Whether or not there are enough of them for TiVo to make a go at it is another question.

We'll see what they do. I haven't watched on OTA broadcast in years, so it doesn't matter to me.

One of the main motivators of "cord-cutters" is cutting costs. Hard to see someone thumbing their nose at even "lifeline" cable and then ponying up hundreds of dollars for TiVo hardware and paying monthly fees, but I'm sure those people are out there. Whether or not there are enough of them for TiVo to make a go at it is another question.

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of course they're out there - and growing. I figured my capital costs when going OTA were paid back in 4 months of not having to pay my $100+ sat bill. My monthly savings net of my TIVo subs is still enough that I'm happy with my downgrade.

of course they're out there - and growing. I figured my capital costs when going OTA were paid back in 4 months of not having to pay my $100+ sat bill. My monthly savings net of my TIVo subs is still enough that I'm happy with my downgrade.

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Ya there are blenty of us, I dumped Pay TV years ago and have bought 3 HD TiVos, a blu-ray play, HTPC, 50" plasma TV, very good receiver, and upgraded speakers in my 7.1 speaker system since then. Just because someone doesn't think pay tv is worth paying for doesn't mean they are not interested in a good DVR, in fact I would say a good OTA DVR helps make giving up pay tv easier.

Ya there are blenty of us, I dumped Pay TV years ago and have bought 3 HD TiVos, a blu-ray play, HTPC, 50" plasma TV, very good receiver, and upgraded speakers in my 7.1 speaker system since then. Just because someone doesn't think pay tv is worth paying for doesn't mean they are not interested in a good DVR, in fact I would say a good OTA DVR helps make giving up pay tv easier.

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Your idea of "plenty" and TiVos might not be the same. If the cost for TiVo to include OTA is minimal than I'm sure they will continue courting consumers like yourself and add the feature.

On the other hand, if the cost to offer OTA capability is substantial and TiVo is continuing their cozy-up relationship with MSOs then I rather doubt another OTA TiVo is in the pipeline.

Consumers tend to radically under-estimate the cost for businesses to add features to hardware. If it costs TiVo even $5 to put OTA capability in their next hardware box it results in a $20 cost bump to them at retail (or a $20 additional loss if hardware prices stay what they are today).

To put it another way... the 95+ percent of consumers who don't give a rat's ass about OTA are footing the bill for the consumers who do want it.

of course they're out there - and growing. I figured my capital costs when going OTA were paid back in 4 months of not having to pay my $100+ sat bill. My monthly savings net of my TIVo subs is still enough that I'm happy with my downgrade.

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Satellite is outrageously expensive. My bill hit $150 with DirecTV just before I dropped them and that didn't include internet. My current FiOS bill is $120 which includes 75/35 internet and the top TV package. If I dumped TV it would save me maybe $40 a month.

To put it another way... the 95+ percent of consumers who don't give a rat's ass about OTA are footing the bill for the consumers who do want it.

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You have no idea what percentage of TiVo's customers want OTA tuners in their DVRs and don't worry us OTA only users foot the bill for cable only people also - I have no more need for the cable tuners/cable card support plus the development costs for both in my TiVo DVRs than you do for the OTA tuners and their development costs in yours. However I am guessing having supported both cable & OTA is the only reason TiVo could continue on so I am good with it. Now that they have cable partners developing for cable users will be more cost effective and I am good with that, if they do develop another unit with OTA I am sure they will do it because they believe it will be more profitable than not so you should be good with that.

You have no idea what percentage of TiVo's customers want OTA tuners in their DVRs and don't worry us OTA only users foot the bill for cable only people also - I have no more need for the cable tuners/cable card support plus the development costs for both in my TiVo DVRs than you do for the OTA tuners and their development costs in yours.

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I think you have a very skewed view of how many active subscribers are using OTA and more importantly, how many of those are interested in an equipment upgrade.

Only TiVo knows for sure... but I would be willing to bet that OTA is in the minority and even if there's been a small surge of cable cutters, that won't be changing anytime soon.

Stop taking it personally. Fortunately the costs either way are relatively low, but they can swing the decision when the sale of hundreds of thousands of units over several years are at stake. A single large MSO could buy more units in one quarter than TiVo would sell to certain demographics in the product lifetime..... so timing is also a factor (if OTA would delay delivery of a new platform for example).

All we are doing here is tuesday morning quarter-backing their decisions, when we don't have access to the data they have that drives the decision making.

As I said, I don't have a dog in this fight, but if cable card users handily outsell potential OTA users, then adding the OTA feature WILL cost the cable card crowd money, in some fashion.

You have no idea what percentage of TiVo's customers want OTA tuners in their DVRs and don't worry us OTA only users foot the bill for cable only people also - I have no more need for the cable tuners/cable card support plus the development costs for both in my TiVo DVRs than you do for the OTA tuners and their development costs in yours. However I am guessing having supported both cable & OTA is the only reason TiVo could continue on so I am good with it. Now that they have cable partners developing for cable users will be more cost effective and I am good with that, if they do develop another unit with OTA I am sure they will do it because they believe it will be more profitable than not so you should be good with that.

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I have no need for cable tuners or cable cards. I've not used satellite or cable since 2006. I've save lots of money thanks to Tivo but if there were another product that had OTA tuners and had more features that I was looking for then I'd consider moving on to something else.

I'm not interested in paying for something monthly when there is plenty to watch on regular TV. Only channels that I even miss are ESPN and SYFY. And SYFY from what I hear is not so good anymore anyway.

The concept that OTA and cable people are at war here is looking at it the wrong way. A unit that can use both is mutually beneficial, in terms of selling more units from the same development costs, flexibility down the road, and resale value.

I'm not giving up cable anytime soon. The only thing I'd like is one that could handle both OTA and cable at the same time. What I'm wondering is why a cable-only premiere couldn't have an add-on 2-tuner USB adapter for the OTA folks, and also allow it to be used with cable at the same time. OTA is a great backup for cable after a storm, or during the storm with a generator if all utilities are down.

Only TiVo knows for sure... but I would be willing to bet that OTA is in the minority and even if there's been a small surge of cable cutters, that won't be changing anytime soon.

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The cable cutters crowd is growing. In general, it is younger and more technologically savvy crowd that is doing this. Anecdotal evidence: the number of people I know that have cut the cord is increasing each year. All are <40 years old.

The cable cutters crowd is growing. In general, it is younger and more technologically savvy crowd that is doing this. Anecdotal evidence: the number of people I know that have cut the cord is increasing each year. All are <40 years old.

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Yes, and many of those users aren't going to pay for TiVo either. Those "young" "savvy" users get their content by and large from bit torrent.... a.k.a, they pirate it.