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1/10/2012

(Probably) Final Oscar Predictions

8 – The Help
7 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo / Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

6 – The Descendants / War Horse / The Tree of Life

5 – Midnight in Paris

3 – Moneyball / My Week with Marilyn / The Iron Lady / Albert Nobbs

MOST LIKELY TO SURPRISE

(As far as potential surprises go, my money is on The Tree of Life, Deathly Hallows Part II, Rooney Mara, Gary Oldman, Marion Cotillard and Ben Kingsley. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy is also a strong possibility and although I probably shouldn't consider it a 'potential surprise', I will be, indeed surprised if guild-fave Bridesmaids manages to pull off the 5% No1, the new Best Picture rule requires.)

If the Academy decides to go 'modern', they might surprise the ones – including myself - who expect them to make their usual conservative choices. In this case, critical fave Drive and guild-darling Bridesmaids might be able to fight off the genre-prejudice AND the new rule, and pull off the 5% No1 votes. If 'modern' will be the word this year (now THAT would be a first...), Andy Serkis could also find himself on the shortlist...although the Academy might consider making him wait a little longer and nominate him for his signature -role next year.

Strong acting contenders could be nominated for unexpected films : if the Academy really embraces The Tree of Life, Jessica Chastain could be easily nominated for that and not The Help, and as impossible as it sounds, I think even Brad Pitt could get the Lead Actor nod for the Malick-film (or maybe two nominations, Moneyball in lead and Tree of Life in supporting ?). If Shame is too racy for the Academy, they could still nominate Michael Fassbender for A Dangerous Method or Jane Eyre, not to mention Christopher Plummer who is the frontrunner at the moment for the little-seen Beginners, but is also in contention for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, a film that unlike his other one, IS a serious best picture contender AND an international Box Office hit.

+1 Highly unlikely, but prestige films – A Dangerous Method, Carnage, Jane Eyre, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Margaret, Margin Call - with NO significant buzz, could surprise, too...no, scratch that, if any of these receive ANY Oscar-nominations in the 8 main categories, that will be shocking, not surprising.