Louisiana’s DC clout shaky at best

The amount of influence Bayou State politicians have inside the Beltway has become a cyclical topic, last discussed with some seriousness in 2008 when former Congressman Bill Jefferson was inching ever closer to the pokey on bribery charges and his colleague Jim McCrery decided to retire near the peak of his power on the House Ways and Means Committee.

In the preceding years there was even more reason for concern as Appropriations chair and almost-speaker Bob Livingston resigned amid a story about an extramarital affair, and was later followed out the door by House Energy Chair Billy Tauzin and Senate heavy John Breaux. All three landed lucrative lobbying deals, thus continuing their influence, just not on behalf of Louisiana.

Now here we are today. U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu is herself a former after losing her seat last year to current Sen. Bill Cassidy. With Landrieu’s exit the state relinquished the chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee (she would have lost it anyhow with the GOP takeover) and suffered the loss of a seasoned voice on the Appropriations Committee. Cassidy scored assignments to both committees when he was seated, but is still proving his worth.

As a result The Hill, a Washington newspaper, downgraded Louisiana’s rank in its “Clout Index” from 4th to 30th, below Alabama, Mississippi, Texas and 26 other states. It credited Landrieu’s defeat for the dramatic drop — and Congressman Steve Scalise’s ascent to majority whip, the third most powerful position in the House, for it not being worse.

As we look ahead to 2016, the picture may very well become darker. U.S. Sen. David Vitter is at the center of this potential storm as he makes a seemingly unstoppable run for governor. Vitter is leading in the polls, leading in fundraising and leading in name recognition. But what if he loses? Vitter has repeatedly said he is running for the last political job he will ever hold, but he has eloquently dodged the question of whether he would run for re-election to the Senate should one of his opponents snatch the governor’s mansion away from him.

There’s already a long line forming up to run for the U.S. Senate in 2016, with most suggesting they would back out if Vitter runs for re-election. The crowd currently includes Congressmen Charles Boustany and John Fleming, who are both aggressively raising money and assembling their teams, as well as Treasurer John Kennedy, who will have the money to compete and is the most popular official in Louisiana based on recent polling. If Vitter is defeated this fall, it will only be because the electorate soured on his political brand, creating a stink that will certainly follow him into the next election cycle. That could be enough to keep Boustany and Fleming on the ballot.

And if Vitter wins, you better believe the two congressmen will tee it up. If that happens, Boustany, an increasingly powerful voice on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, and Fleming, an important player in the lower chamber’s conservative wing and a natural resources subcommittee chair, will have to give up their House seats. Some influence would naturally carry over to the Senate, but only one can win — neither is always a possibility too.

Meanwhile, losing Vitter in D.C. would mean losing the ranking member on the Environment and Public Works Committee and the ranking member on two other subcommittees. If it weren’t for his unrelenting desire to return to Louisiana, Vitter could be a contender for a chairmanship in the Senate.

Then there’s Scalise, who has become a sort of wild card. Back in Louisiana he has definitely survived the news from the top of the year that he spoke to a group of white supremacists in 1992. But the incident continues to haunt him in Washington, with the White House press secretary citing it earlier this month while discussing the politics of the Confederate flag. Scalise not only has to be re-elected to Congress by voters, but also re-elected by the House to maintain his whip job.

This is all to say that Louisiana could potentially lose one senior U.S. senator, two veteran House members and a major leadership position over the next year and a half. While it’s unlikely that all of this would happen simultaneously, the political landscape could allow for it based on where the pieces sit on the board today. Then again, maybe none of it will transpire.

But if the worst-case scenario does become our reality, where would Louisiana rank in Roll Call’s “Clout Index” then? It’s no wonder why donors appealed to Vitter last year to stay in the Senate, and it’s no wonder why freshmen like Congressmen Ralph Abraham and Garret Graves appear to be on a fast track through their own aggressive moves and help from others. Abraham, it's worth noting, has also promised to serve in office for only six years.

Louisiana’s losses in D.C. over the past 16 years are certainly worth mourning, but it’s not yet time to put away the black veils. Because more changes could be right around the corner. Whether they represent a fresh start or a step back is something we should all be eager to learn.

— Jeremy Alford is the publisher-editor of LaPolitics.com/LaPolitics Weekly. Email him at JJA@LaPolitics.com.