Handling complex societal problems needs a
special approach. Handling societal problems in an interdisciplinary way has
become a must for our society and a challenge for the human sciences. The
problems society is confronted with are difficult to handle. There is a
growing gap between the complexity of these problems and the human capacity to
deal with them. There is a need for better methods and tools, more knowledge
and imagination. Scientific knowledge is needed to survive amidst these
problems.

Therefore methodology for complex societal
problems has become a new field of scientific attention. Some of the
scientific reasons for this special approach are that the problems are seldom
defined, change during their development, many actors are involved often with
a different view on the problem, with different interest and with different
‘solutions’ in mind. Societal reasons for this special approach is the
importance of these problems for society, the impact they have on many people,
and the large amount of money involved. Combining the effort of scientists who
are working in this field is an inspiring serious challenge from the perspective
of a number of disciplines. Combining existing knowledge and creating new
insights with methods and tools for supporting complex societal problems is a
challenge for scientists from different fields.

The goal of the Euro Group on Complex
Societal Problems is to increase and to combine the available scientifical
knowledge regarding the handling of complex societal problems. Means to reach
this goal are organizing workshops and conferences, publishing proceedings and
books in which the discussion on this subject can take place.

The year 2000

The interest for the Euro Working Group on
Complex Societal Problems is still growing. In July 2000 on the EURO XVII
conference in Budapest Hungary the Euro Working Group organized nine sessions
and a workshop. This means that during the whole conference there was a
continuous discussion of the subject of Complex Societal Problems. The papers
and the discussions were very inspiring. The presenters of the papers were
selected based on the abstract reviewed by the board of the Euro Working Group
. The Euro Working Group is very glad that it was able to invite such a large
group of high qualified researchers from all over the world to present their
research. The abstracts of the papers were published in the way of the
tradition of the Euro Working Group in a special booklet (DeTombe, 2000a). The
Chair of the Euro Working Group was invited to present a semi plenary lecture
on the Euro XVII conference. Many people attended the presentation.

In cooperation with the Euro Working Group
organized the International Society on Complex Societal Problems in October
2000 the second international meeting of researchers on the subject of Complex
Societal Problems. This session was organized on the 5th
International Conference on Social Science Methodology in Koln, Germany. There
the International Society on Complex Societal Problems organized several
sessions in which twelve researchers presented their papers (DeTombe, 2000b).

The Euro Working Group works closely together
with the Dutch Nosmo Research Group on Complex Societal Problems in the
Netherlands and with the International Society on Complex Societal Problems.
The Dutch Nosmo research group on Complex Societal Problems organized in the
year 2000 four meetings with paper presentations and discussions.

The West Euro Group on Complex Societal
Problems

In order to intensify the discussion and the
scientific exchange the Dutch Nosmo group on Complex Societal Problems started
in October 2000 a cooperation with the Belgium and German scientists in this
field. Prof. Dr. Jean-Pierre Brans and his group of researchers of the Free
University of Brussels, Belgium and Prof. Dr Franz Liebl of the Witten/Herdecke
University, Prof. Dr. Heiner Müller-Merbach of the University of
Kaiserslautern and Dr. Elmar Stuhler of Munich Technical University in Germany
and some of their colleagues joined the Dutch Nosmo Group of Dr. DeTombe in an
Euro Subgroup named the West Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems.
The West-Euro Working Group met twice in Amsterdam (SISWO) in 2000 to discuss
their mutual research plans. It promised to be a very vivid and fruitful
research group. In 2001 four meetings of the West Euro group are planned, two
in Amsterdam (SISWO), one in Maastricht (ICIS) and one in Brussels (VU).

The number of members of the Euro Working
Group is steadily growing. The members of the Euro Working Group come from
different fields and are work at universities all over the world. There is a
high degree of activity and interaction amongst the members of the group. By
the reaction of the audience there is a feeling that this relatively new
subject of the Operational Research field is winning more and more interest.
There is also a growing interest from the side of policy makers who recognize
that the problems they are confronted with are complex problems, which are not
easy to solve, and which need an complex integral approach. The growing
interest is needed, because the problems society is confronted with should be
efficient and sustainable handled. Complex societal problems like in Europe
the recent troubles in the agro-industry as the Mad-Cow disease and the Mouth
and Foot disease, and the continue problems with in the area of transportation.
The worldwide problems in the area of healthcare like malaria and AIDS, and
the water problems (too less, too much and not clean).

The year 2001

In the year 2001 the Euro Working Group on
Complex Societal Problems organized six international meetings. Four meetings
were organized together with the Dutch NOSMO research group on Complex
Societal Problems and the West-Euro group on Complex Societal Problems. These
meetings took place in Amsterdam (twice) Maastricht and Brussels. At the
meetings research was discussed by presenting papers, and research cooperation
was discussed, which resulted in an international and methodological
comparison on the subject of ‘The Complexity of Large Cities’. In the summer
two international conferences were co-organized by the Euro Working Group on
Complex Societal Problems.

One international conference, organized
together with the Dutch NOSMO research group on Complex Societal Problems and
the Dutch NOSMO research group on Simulation was dedicated to the role of
simulation models in handling Complex Societal Problems at the EUROSIM2001,
which took place in June 2001 in Delft University of Technology, Delft The
Netherlands (two tracks, 5 sessions).

The other international conference in the
summer took place in Rotterdam on the EURO 2001 in The Netherlands (six
tracks, 18 sessions). Of each conference a special booklet was published with
the abstracts of the paper presenters (see below).

Special sessions and conferences organized by
the Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems:

·ISAGA conference Ann Arbor,
Michigan, USA, July 1994

·The First International Conference on Methods and Tools for
Handling Complex Societal Problems, Delft University of Technology, The
Netherlands, November 1994

·Second International Conference
on Methods and Tools for Handling Complex Societal Problems, Munich University
of Technology, Germany, organized in conjunction with WACRA-Europe Society on
Case Method Research, June 1996

Complex societal problems like in Europe the recent
difficulties in the Agro-industry as the Mad-Cow disease and the Foot- and
Mouth disease, and the continue problems with in the area of transportation.
Two kinds of knowledge are needed for handling complex societal problems:
content knowledge, and problem handling knowledge. Content knowledge, means
knowledge on the subject of the problem. Complex societal problems are
interdisciplinary therefore the knowledge for handling complex societal
problems comes from a variety of scientific disciplines. The content knowledge
comes from content experts, which have studied this discipline or are familiar
with the field out of experience.

The process knowledge comes from facilitators. These
are scientists or practitioners working in this field of complex societal
problems using methods derived from their original field combined with methods
specially created for the field of handling societal problems. Handling
societal problems include knowledge, power and emotion.

There is a growing interest in the field of
complex societal problems from an interdisciplinary group of researchers all
over the world focussing on methods and tools for handling complex societal
problems.

This paper considers several
taxonomies, including types of operational researchers, and types of game
playing. It compares them with some underlying management strategy and with
some traditional systems used in China. It explores their common features.
One is that they all can be related to three sets of dichotomies. Another is
that some relate to processes, and others describe archetypes. This latter
difference occurs both in the Western and the Chinese taxonomies. It explores
the importance of this distinction for understanding the way these taxonomies
were formed.

Prioritising innovative research areas in a
group decision conferencing process

Dr. Diederick Wijnmalen

TNO, OR&BM Division, P.O. Box 96864

The Hague, The Netherlands

E-mail: wijnmalen@fel.tno.nl

Telephone: (+) 31 70 374 0192, Fax: (+) 31 70
374 0642

This presentation reports on a consulting
process aimed at making a group of high-ranked officials decide on investment
priorities regarding a broad range of innovative research areas. Not only the
research areas were competing, the officials themselves also represented
different parts of a very large Dutch government organisation. In a series of
decision conferences and preparatory elicitation steps in-between, a
prioritisation methodology was first accepted and then carried out based on
expert knowledge and multi-criteria analysis. This presentation will focus on
the process, the methodology and the type of information used, not on results.

Modelling For Surprise: .Alternative
Approaches To Scenario-Building

Prof. dr. Franz Liebl

Chair for Strategic Marketing, Universitaet Witten/Herdecke

Witten, Germany

FranzL@uni-wh.de

The scenario technique is the method of choice
for corporate and political decisionmakers in order to cope with an uncertain
societal environment and its issues and conflicts. In general, it is the
societal and cultural trends that are regarded as the driving forces of future
scenarios. However, a closer look at trends reveals some strange behavior. Our
analysis of approximately 100 important societal and cultural trends shows
that they are tantamount to paradox develop­ments and dialectic relationships
between a trend and its own counter-trend. Trends represent new configurations
which are sensitive to contexts and encompass contradictory elements. Put
differently, they show a simultaneity of the unequal.

This has an important
bearing on the way scenarios are formulated, because the simple variation of
scenario descriptors cannot model the complexity of such developments properly.
In this paper we propose four approaches of scenario-building that reflect
this kind of complexity in different respects and may be regarded as ways of
modelling potentially surprising situations:

Recombinant scenarios. If trends are
conceptualized as a form of increased complexity, a trend which represents a
configuration of elements is in itself a ”micro-scenario.” Thus, scenarios can
be built by combining several of these (paradoxical) trends.

Narrow scenarios. This approach can be
regarded as an alternative to global scenarios which run the danger of
distracting the attention of decisionmakers away from specific drivers to very
generic factors that hardly lead to surprises. In a restricted area the full
set of paradoxes and complexities can be developed more easily and powerfully.

Context scenarios. If we accept the
context-sensitivity of trends, then scenario building can aim at reversing its
own logic: No longer the question ”what—if” is at the heart of alternative
futures but the question ”what (must happen)—so that”. Identifying the
best/worst possible contexts for a trend becomes the result of analysis rather
than the input.

Inconsistent scenarios. Mostly, surprising
scenarios had originally been regarded as impossible and inconsistent. Instead
of excluding these apparently impossible combinations we could explicitly look
for the most inconsistent combinations and most paradoxical trends as the core
of a scenario.

In this paper each of the four approaches will
be discussed and the possibilities for combining them are shown.

Many modern large cities in the industrial
world have problems that are in essence alike. Large cities such as Amsterdam,
Brussels, Zurich and Paris are all confronted with similar problems that
decline the quality of life in the cities for the inhabitants. These problems
are the cause of many worries of municipality as well as for the central
government. These troubles can make people to move to other cities, businesses
to settle their firm elsewhere and tourists to go to other destinations.

The problems large cities are confronted are
problems in the fields of urban planning, transportation, economics,
healthcare, law and order, education and ecology. These problems we refer to
as integrated interdisciplinary complex societal problems.

The problems are due to a series of causes,
for instance, industrial waste disposal; environmental problems and healthcare
problems, different educational and cultural backgrounds of allochtonous and
autochthonous, criminal behavior, and by new situations to which former
answers are not longer a solution.

Most answers that are given are short term,
disciplinary, isolated answers. Shifting a local problem, such as that of
homeless people (drugs addicts) from one area of the city to another is an not
a solution to the problem. Skipping a train station with a high amount of
robbery is an answer but not a solution to the problem.

These interdisciplinary and integrated
problems need a basic approach. Although policy makers recognize the need for
basic answers that handle causes of the problem instead of only the effects,
short term answers are very popular with policy makers because of their

need for direct answers ‘pressed’ by the
public, the media or their own career. Policy makers are often not willing to
handling the deeper causes. Sometimes because they take effects for causes or
they are not able to handle the causes in a long-term view. Basic solutions to
complex societal problems often need a long-term integrated and
interdisciplinary approach, which takes much effort of all the people involved.

A way to handle these complex societal
problems in large cities is to use the COMPRAM method. The COMPRAM method
combines a fast short-term approach with a basic long-term approach. The first
action is to find out which problems are very urgent and need handling right
away, which problems are urgent and which are not so urgent. This is done in
the Quick Start Workshop, where the problem owner with the main actors and the
main content experts guided by a facilitator discuss the problem with each
other in a face to face meeting in an electronic meeting room (GDSS). This is
step zero of the COMPRAM method. Here an inventory of the problems is made.
The five most urgent problems are selected and a start for an intervention
plan is made. With these five problems the municipality can start working
right away.

Then the Basic Approach can start. This can be
done according to step 1 to 6 of the COMPRAM method, where content experts
first analyze the problem in making an integrated and interdisciplinary (simulation)
model of the problem. Then the actors discuss the problem in their own group.
Then mutual accepted interventions are found based on scenarios by the experts
and actors together. Then the interventions are discussed with the public
before implementing. Then the interventions are performed and evaluated. This
Basic Approach is more thorough and takes more time, however, this is the only
way to really find out what the causes of a complex societal problem are and
to find out how to handle the real causes.

Managing
the interface between the competing demands of different stakeholders,
individuals, groups, departments and organizations, is a main challenge for
process managers. Information on stakeholder values, objectives, means and
varying problem perceptions must be obtained and structured to provide
strategic information to the process manager. In this paper a case study is
presented of an interactive network analysis made for strategic policy making
for diffused pollution in a Dutch province. The information was generated by
the use of a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) and mapped according to
participants appraisals and scores on influence and cooperation.

The Critical Success Factor theory has been applied to
regional small IT companies’ web software development in a new way,
transforming it from a tool for consultants into an easily accessible guiding
source for self-help community operations research through web technology,
reflecting cultural and industry specific locally relevant issues.

Knowledge Management In the Small and Medium Enterprises

Dr. LeePeng, Tan

University of Malaya
, Associate Professor

Faculty of Business
and Accountancy, University of Malaya,

City: Kuala Lumpur ,
50603, Malaysia

E-mail: g5tanlp@umcsd.um.edu.my

Telephone: +603 7967
3822/7967 3974

Fax: +603 7967
3980

This paper focuses on
knowledge management in small and medium enterprises in a newly developed
country, namely Malaysia. Special attention will be focused on developing a
conceptual model for knowledge management in a developing country as a
modification to Beijerse’s conceptual model.

Creating a successful intervention is a
challenging task. We discuss the intervention process in small organization
complex problem situations. A case study is presented, which identifies
various discussion points but emphasizes the role of the facilitator.

Formalizing political theories: a dynamical
systems approach.

J. Springael (1), C. Macharis(2)
& G. Geeraerts (3)

1 jspringa@ruca.ua.ac.be

Faculty of Applied Economics – University of
Antwerp

2 Center for Strategic Management –
Vrije Universiteit Brussel

3 Department of Politics – Vrije Universiteit
Brussel

A mathematical model describing the behavior
of and the interactions between three political actors is set up using
dynamical systems. Each actor is represented by means of its relative power,
whereas the type of

interaction is depending on the ‘status quo’
or ‘revisionistic’ character of the different countries. The model is solved
numerically through simulation.

The results of the simulations allow a better
understanding of international political relations as well as the analysis of
the underlying assumptions of several political theories.

Research methodology and Ontological Notions
of Complex Societal Problems

Dr Olev Ivanov

St. Petersburg State University

Faculty of Sociology

Russia

Three ontological notions of complex societal
problems: objective, subjective, and objective-subjective can be outlined.
Research methodology depends upon the acceptance of definite notion. I would
argue that the complex societal problems include both objective and subjective
components; it also involves interaction between them. That is why we have to
use both objective and subjective methods. The idea of triangulation derives
from the necessity of using both objective and subjective methods of research.
As the basis of triangulation a single onthological notions of complex social
problem should be used. That notion can be developed by interdisciplinary
research team, the problem owner and normal citizens. The single initial
notion of subject study and subject of social action – the most important
principle of complex approach as a relatively new methodological conception of
modern science and modern social practice. The complex approach is on the
stage of development in current research. In practice we can find only some
elements of this approach.

The author deals with the
underlying principles of complex approach. The principles are the following:

·single
approach to the cognitive process, to methodological organization of research
(ensured by the common initial notions of an object; common idea of a
research; system organization of the subject of research, which is a mental
interdisciplinary construction of the analyzed object and common research
program);

·mobilization
of the pertinent know­ledge concerning the object of investigation;

·basic science;

·
supplamentarity;

·subordination
and coordination of theresearch methods, qualitative and quantitative;

·
methodological control of ideas and results compatibility.

All these principles
concern the cognitive process. They set the require­ments for a methodological
and social organization of the collective scientific research.

The author discusses the problem of
methodological and social organization of complex research.

Workshop

Complex Societal problems: Theory & Practice

Dr. Dorien DeTombe

Traditional the content of the sessions of the
conference on the topic of complex societal problems are discussed with all
the participants of the conference stream of complex societal problems. Which
new things are developed in the field. What did we learn. Which progress is
made on theory, and in practice. What are the interesting current questions
in the field? How will we continue in the future? Which new urgent complex
societal problem can be signaled. The questions will reflect theory and every
day life practice.

All people interested in this subject are
invited to join the workshop.

Tutorial

How to handle
complex societal problems more efficient and more transparent

The Tutorial consists of two parts: a theoretical part
in the morning and an applied workshop in the afternoon.

Theory:

In the theoretical part the main ideas of the
theory for handling complex societal problems will be explained with an
introduction to the method COMPRAM (Complex Problem Handling Method; DeTombe,
1994; DeTombe, 2001). What are complex societal problems. What have the
different complex societal problems all in common. The role of chaos theory,
socio-cybernetics, system-dynamics and cognitive psychology in the theory of
complex societal problems. What is the reason these problems need an
interdisciplinary approach. Why should these kinds of problems be handled in
co-operation. How far and in what way can these problems be predicted. In what
way can these problems be guided. What are the basic approaches for complex
societal problems. What is the role of knowledge, power and emotion in
handling complex societal problems. Which kinds of parties are involved. What
are the different interest and knowledge of the different parties. How can
these parties cooperate with each other. How to develop a vision on the
problem. What is the role of scenarios. How to structure, guide and evaluate
the interventions

Workshop:

An interactive role-play Game based on the COMPRAM
method.

The applied workshop will explore how a real
life complex societal problem can be handled. Here step by step the phases of
the problem handling process of the complexity of large cities will be walked
through. In an interactive role-play Game based on the COMPRAM method each
participant of the workshop has an active part in the problem handling process,
some as a content expert, some as an actor (a party). All participants will
have like, in real life, different knowledge, different interests, and
different emotions towards the problem. All participants will have different
cultural backgrounds. Based on the seven-layer communication model of DeTombe
(1994) the participants of the workshop will communicate with each other
guided by a facilitator. For information retrieval the Internet will be used.

Complex societal problems are problems like
the effects of
climate change, that results in floods, avalanches and biological changes;
environmental problems due to the world wide industrial waste disposals; large
healthcare threads due to BSE, malaria and AIDS, and the vulnerability of a
society of computers, internet and stock exchange. Although all these problems
differ much, the way they can be analyzed and handled is the same. Complex societal problems are, due to the
complexity, the many feedback loops and the different interests of the actors,
hard to handle and even more difficult to guide. Handling these problems needs
a multi actor and a multi-disciplinary approach. The COMPRAM method is a
framework method that guides the problem handling process step by step,
starting by selecting the most urgent problems, step zero of the COMPRAM
method. Then in several rounds experts and actors discuss their view on the
problem and try to come to an agreement for interventions. These are step one
to six of the COMPRAM method. The facilitator carefully guides this process.
The facilitator guides the interaction among the experts and actors by
modeling the problem. For this modeling process the COMPRAM method uses a
seven-layer tool. (DeTombe, 1994).

The COMPRAM method can be used to handle all
kinds of complex societal problems. In the last ten years elements of the
COMPRAM method are used to handle complex societal problems of the government,
and of large (international) organizational problems. Examples are ‘Who is in
charge of the North Sea’, ‘What are the future problems in the area of
transportation’, ‘How can the local government work more fruitfully together’,
‘How can we as a national electricity organization start an international
business?’ and ‘How to prevent risks during large international sport events’.
See for information about Complex Societal Problems and the COMPRAM method the
website of DeTombe (above).

Dorien DeTombe has ten years theoretical and
applied experience is handling complex societal problems. She has supported
more then 50 real life cases for the government as well for large
international organizations. She is chair of the Euro Working Group on Complex
Societal Problems of Operational Research Society. See for more information
the website of DeTombe;
http://ww.geocities.com/doriendetombe/index.html