Thursday, October 09, 2008

Sent by one of Lord Patel's many female admirers who retains the entertaining and juvenile belief that Mr Obama will, come November ,(f he is still alive) be beaten by Mr McCain (if he is still alive).

Iceland's government has seized control of Kaupthing Bank hf, the nation's biggest bank, which makes a royal flush for them of septic banks as the Icelandic banking industry has finally ( and predictably) collapsed under the massive weight of foreign debt.

Iceland is guaranteeing Kaupthing's domestic deposits and taking control of banks in an attempt to provide a ``functioning domestic banking system,'' the country's Financial Supervisory Authority said in a statement on its Web site this aftrenoon....

"Kaupthing Bank has now requested that the Icelandic Financial SupervisoryAuthority, in accordance with the provisions of the new Act no. 125/2008, whichwas passed into law because of the unusual circumstances in the financialmarket, assume the power of Kaupthing Bank shareholders' meeting. Furthermore,the entire board of directors of the bank has resigned. "

The banks are unable to finance about US $61 billion of debt, 12 times the size of the economy, - Pop approx 300K. The collapses have affected 420,000 British and Dutch customers, and frozen assets held by universities, hospitals, councils and even London's police force. The government is seeking a loan from Russia and may ask for aid from the International Monetary Fund to help guarantee deposits.

Trading in the krona ground to a halt today after the central bank yesterday ditched an attempt to fix the exchange rate at 131 krona to the euro. Nordea Bank AB, the biggest Scandinavian lender, said the krona hadn't been traded on the spot market today, while the last quoted price was 340 per euro, compared with 122 a month ago.

Banking Boom

Assets at Iceland's three biggest banks, Glitnir Bank hf, Landsbanki Island hf and Kaupthing, had grown five-fold since 2004 as the companies expanded massively . Most of that expansion was debt financed.

The cost of borrowing in dollars for three months in London soared to the highest level this year today as coordinated interest-rate reductions worldwide failed to revive lending among banks for any longer than a day, partly on concern over who holds Icelandic debt.

U.K. taxpayers will probably face a bill of at least £2.4 Bn. (US$4.1 billion) to compensate about 300,000 U.K. holders of accounts at Icesave, a unit of Landsbanki says the Financial Times .

All Iceand equity markets remain closed until (at least) Oct. 13.

Kaupthing's entire board of directors has resigned and the FSA has appointed a committee to wind up the lender's business, the bank said in a statement today.

The debts of the Icelandic banking system are too big for the government to repay.

The Icelandic population cannot assume responsibility for the private debt that the banks have built up yet it appears that Debt Rating Agencie were providing AA ratings for the banks

Kaupthing has 5 billion euros of debt obligations maturing, Glitnir's debt obligations over the same period are about 4 billion euros and Landsbanki has about 2 billion euros to finance.

Russia move to save NATO member state

Iceland has commenced talks with Russia on Tuesday to secure a loan of as much as 4 billion euros (U$5.48 billion), Prime Minister Geir Haarde said late yesterday. He added that loans from the IMF and Russia ``are not mutually exclusive,'' though the government hadn't, ``at this point at least,'' asked the IMF for a standby loan or an economic program.

US pulls Defence Forces out of IcelandIn - a little noticed move, Geir Haarde the Icelandic Foreign Minister told the Althingi (the Icelandic Parliament), on March 16th 2006 that president Bush had made the final decision to end the permanent deployment of US forces in Iceland based on the recommendation of the US secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld. (See Wednesday, April 05, 2006 Arctic warms ? Iceland market cools down ?

It is expected that all forces will be withdrawn from the Keflavik base by September 2006.Icelandic employees (approx 600) have been informed that they would all be dismissed by October 1st.

Japan scrambled fighter planes on Wednesday intercepting Russian bombers on a "training exercise" over the Sea of Japan.

"Four Japanese air force F-15 fighters escorted the strategic aviation crews as they flew over the Sea of Japan," Lieutenant-Colonel Vladimir Drik was quoted as saying by the Interfax and RIA Novosti news agencies.

Two Russian Su-27 fighter jets were also sent up to join the bombers after the Japanese intercept to ensure that the Russian Tu-22 bombers, known in NATO parlance as "Backfire" bombers, completed their mission as planned, he said.

The Russian bombers were sent on the patrol as part of Russia's "Stability 2008" military manoeuvres in the region, the reports quoted Drik as saying.

Mr Robert Tchenguiz

It is with very deep regret that Lord Patel notes that Mr Tchenguiz sold his 10% stake (168 Mn) in Sainsbury's, at 250p a share (bought at 520-590p per share)through Kaupthing, the troubled Icelandic bank. This follows the forced sale of the Tgenguiz 25 % stake in Mitchells & Butlers, the pub group, for £137m to the British billionaire Joe Lewis (Who lost US$800 Mn on Bear Stearns) on Tuesday. Aaron Brown and Tim Smalley who are mouthpieces for Mr T have left the board.

Mr Tchenguiz seems is ready to sell his 22 % stake in SCi Entertainment, the listed holding company of Eidos, the publisher of the Lara Croft Tomb Raider computer games. Aaron Brown, the mouth piece for Mr Tchenguiz at his investment vehicle R20, stepped down from SCi Entertainment's board yesterday.

There was no mention of foul play or murder at the very brief inquest into the unexpected death of Michael Todd (ACPO head of terrorism) who was found dead on Snowdon on March 10th 2008.

The coroner Dewi Pritchard Jones , recorded a narrative verdict, suggesting that Mr Todd had died of exposure in conditions where the wind chill factor was -18C (0F) “when his state of mind was affected by alcohol, a drug and confusion in his personal life”.

The Times reports that Todd had drunk most of a bottle of gin, laced with the non-prescription sleeping drug Nytol, and then, in a confused, possibly hallucinatory and hypothermic state, stumbled or slid 300ft on to the snow-covered slope below, where he lay dying with his head resting on his forearms.

An unopened bottle of champagne had been discarded or dropped and was found in the snow.

Detective Sergeant Kevin Evans told the inquest at the Gywynedd Council offices in Caernarfon that Mr Todd sent 319 texts to friends, colleagues and his lover between Thursday, March 6 and the following Monday night, when he was found dead. (sending texts in the dark with a wind chill of -18) - why not use the voice ?.

The Daily Telegraph report that a (un-named senior police officer contacted around 10 women to tell them that they may take leave during the inquest if they wish.

One source said: "All the women in the GMP suspected of having an affair with Mr Todd or named as being linked with him will be offered paid leave. They (were) advised to keep a low profile during the inquest.

The inquest contained many curious features ;

1. Recipients of the text messages sent by Todd were not identified other than by a coded alphabetical letter.

2. The time and location of the sending of those texts - especially on the fatal Monday have not been made public. This is important as pres rports state that the initital searches were a wild goose chase based on wrong (?) information about the location of Todd's phone.

3. The finders of the body off the well worn track in atrocious weather (the worst storm in 10 years) were not identified nor it appears gave evidence.

4. The route (and crucially the timing) of Todd's police vehicle which will have had a tracker device - which could be confirmed by the NW Wales network of Number Plate Recognition cameras remins unpublished.The inquest was aklso told that Todd had visited suicide websites and drove to Cumbria on March 9 but had “bottled out” and gone home.

5. The role / activities / liason with the Police , of the Llanberis Mountain rescue team, and the various helicopters - "men in dark suits" remains still a mystery.

Lord Patel has played a small part in the history of Stilton Cheese manufacture.

Cheese is a plastic substance (in the engineering not chemical sense) amd requires (like many cheese) when in store to be daily rotated to even out movement of the chese fromit's true cylindrical form.

A freshly made Stilton cheese exudes both fats and salt. Until about 1965 a single cloth was used as a mat under each cheese to absorb this material. These cloths were re-cycled and became increasingly unpleasant to use.

A simple (and it proved to be a highly profitable change) substitution of a lightweight non woven fabric reduced costs and improved the way cheese were handled - the supply continues to this day. (At the same time he was also involved in manufacturing disposable ladies panties from such (then) novel materials)

Long Clawson Dairy (Long Clawson) , leading (and very log standing manufacturers have now made a bid to buy out of the Millway business of Dairy Crest Group (Millway) - which - says the Office of Fair Trading will" result in a substantial lessening of competition in any market in the UK, including that for the supply of Blue Stilton cheese (Stilton)".

The OFT claims that the merger combines two of the only three mainstream suppliers responsible for the vast majority of Stilton sold, and would gives Long Clawson over 50 % of total UK sales of Stilton - the UK market at retail value is said to be around £65 million per year in Stilton, which is a protected name under EC regulations, and can only be produced, with a proper licence, in three East Midlands counties. There is also a very healthy export market worldwide.

In another of those stupid and time wasting moves this bid had been referred to the Competition Commission under the Entreprise Sct 2002 - the CC expect to report by 24 March 2009.

The CC would like to hear from all interested parties, in writing, by Friday 24 October 2008. To submit evidence, please email james.waugh@cc.gsi.gov.uk or write to: James Waugh Inquiry Manager Competition Commission Victoria House Southampton Row LONDON WC1B 4AD

NB the Village of Long Clawson will be full of festive fun this month - Don't miss..

Not a great one for formal celebrations but it is worth noting that the Universal Postal Union was formed on October 9th, 1874 in Berne , Switzerland, and philatelists celebrate today as World Post Day.

Today the UPU, with 189 member countries, oversees the co-ordination of the global postal service, the world's largest physical distribution network.

Despite the web and satellite based telephony Postal services in all countries provide a primary means of communication for people, organisations and business. The goal is to ensure a universal postal service that is easily accessible, efficient and affordable.... and one would like to think doesn't involve the state snooping on it's content.

The pic shows blonde and beautiful Byelorussian lady dancers performing at World Post Day celebrations organized by Belpochta, the Belarus Postal Service.

On the 28th November 2006 , Reporters Without Borders expressed their condemnation of the removal of many independent newspapers from the list of publications to be distributed next year by the Belarusian state postal service, Belpochta, which has a monopoly of subscription press delivery and believes it can pick and choose what it delivers.

The delivery ban will hit four national newspapers - Narodnaya Volya, Nasha Niva, Tovarich, Svobodnie Novosti Plus - and many regional ones, including Brestski Kurier, Vitebski Kurier, Borisovskie Novosti, Gazeta Slonimskaya, Intex-press, Lyahavitski Chas, Volnaye Hlybokaue, Hantsavitski Chas & Miastsovi Chas.“This is yet another bid by the Belarusian government to silence the independent press by depriving it of its means of existence,” Reporters Without Borders said. “As shown by the case of the newspaperSolidarnost, which stopped publishing at the end of 2005, severance of the postal delivery contract is often the prelude to closure.”

The distribution system dates back to the Soviet era. Two state companies have monopolies. Belsouzpechat delivers newspapers to news stands, while Belpochta delivers them to subscribers. The state’s control of these companies means the pro-government press gets preferential treatment while distribution of critical media can be blocked altogether

...........

An independent Byelorussian state was pronounced in March 1918 by an administration in Minsk known as Rada, but it existed only for nine months until the establishment of the Byelorussian Soviet Republic.

The military administration of Rada, known as BNR (Byelorussian National Republic) lasted for several decades.

The short-lived Rada government in Minsk issued three stamps in 1918 - this ( 2 Kopeks) is one of them.

Monday, October 06, 2008

Boeing are trading US$49.76 down US$4.07 (7.56%)During the third quarter, Boeing delivered only 84 planes, down from 109 in the year-ago quarter. The strike is affecting assembly of Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner — already a year behind schedule — along with 737s, 777s, 767s, and 747s.

Delta Air Lines (DAL), the USA's No. 3 carrier, was expecting this fall to receive four long-range Boeing 777s and 737-700s, for a total of 10 new jets this year. "All I can tell you is we are expecting some delay in our deliveries," Delta spokeswoman Betsy Talton said.

Last week, Ryanair canceled flights on 21 routes to and from Birmingham,UK, scheduled for this month because deliveries of Boeing 737s have been delayed.

Which is all pretty old news - except to the MSM - who have been quietly and conveniently hiding it for a long, long time.

Meanwhile here is a picture of Michelle Obama with her friend Ex Weatherwoman and Sidley Austin Partner Bernardine Dohrn at a political rally.see Monday, April 28, 2008 Obama. Ayers Rocks.Bernardine (on the right) is the wife of Weatherman ("You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows," from the Bob Dylan song Subterranean Homesick Blues. ) Bill Ayers and mother of his 2 children.

Meanwhile here is a picture of Michelle Obama with her friend Ex Weatherwoman and Sidley Austin Partner Bernardine Dohrn at a political rally.see Monday, April 28, 2008 Obama. Ayers Rocks.Bernardine (on the right) is the wife of Weatherman ("You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows," from the Bob Dylan song Subterranean Homesick Blues. ) Bill Ayers and mother of his 2 children.

She went to prison on various charges - Dohrn and Ayers became legal guardians of the son of former members of the Weather Underground, Kathy Boudin and David Gilbert, after they were convicted of murder of a security guard and 2 police officers during a 1981 Brinks armoured car robbery.The Weathermen bombed the Pentagon, the US Capitol, the New York Police Benevolent Association, the New York Board of Corrections, as well as the offices of multinational companies. Boudin, along with Cathy Wilkerson, was a survivor of the 1970 Greenwich Village townhouse explosion, the premature detonation of a bomb that had been intended for a soldiers' dance at Fort Dix, New Jersey.

Boudin was 27 at the time. Both women were awaiting trial, out on bond for their alleged actions in Days of Rage in Chicago several months earlier. Wilkerson had been released on a $20,000 bond and Boudin was out on a $40,000 bond.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt quipped, “If something happens in politics, you can be rest assured it was no accident”.

Therefore the lengthy , tangled Byzantine passage of Hank the Bank's stark 3 page proposal to shell out US$700Bn of the US taxpayers funds to shore up the bankers of Wall Street and beyond may look like a slo-mo car crash.

All the winking lights on this Christmas tree each carry the hopes and dreams of soon to be elected pols in both Houses and the last gasp of a despairing Administration.Now is not the time or place to untangle the skeins of Pork and plunder. Let's look at Hank's Dilemma.

OK - it is now US$800Bn Bill with the FDIC need for extra funds etc., but the original blackmail note from Hank and Ben stands.

So let's see how that US$700 BN will ;

1 : shelve the so called "toxic" debts2 : Impact on the sellering banks as they re - jiggle their shaky balance sheets

ASSUME :US Treasury buys $1 trillion of mortgages at face value for 80 cents on the Dollar (which is probably what they are carrying them at) from the 8 key domestic players (The Group of 8) who we limit for this exercise to Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), Merrill Lynch (MER), Morgan Stanley (MS), (PNC) and US Bancorp (USB) (The aggregate shareholders’ equity of these 8 Banks is US$590 billion(ish)) at say 80 cents on the Dollar;

The Banks have to write off nothing.

But .... but .... for every one cent of new write downs on the $1 trillion portfolio these eight firms will be writing off 1.7% of their share capital.

If Hank has to pay “pay market price” for these assets, which is well below the current carrying values - which he has to, to build in a pay back for Uncle Sam and the taxpayer - the Banks will see thei capital flow away along with their capacity to lend.

Say Hank holds out for 60 cents on the Dollar - that means that the Group of 8 would wipe out 34%, or US$200 billion, of their collective share capital in the next few days/weeks/months.

So that means they have to raise more capital, dilute their shares and further upset the market.

Even if this is an overestimate the Group of 8 alone needs to line up another $50 billion of new equity after being "bailed out" - ten times what warren Buffet handed over on the basis of a 10% fixed coupon with 100% warranty.

Hank and Ben (don't expect to hear much more from Ben the bit player in this farrago from now on ) have a Dilemma. Hank's Dillemma - like squaring the circle...

The lower price for this ordure that he pays on behalf of taxpayers the worse the pain will be for banks offloading it.

The lying bankers, who so carefully prepared their gossamer thin balance sheets can hear the beating of the wings of their chickens coming home to roost.

ImClone's mystery suitor and now owner is Eli Lilly (LLY) . Their US$6.1Bn bid should have put the lid on Bristol Myer's (BMY) repeated attempts at a hostile takeover.

This deal values ImClone at US$70/share, a 51% premium over ImClone's closing price before Bristol made its first $60/share bid, and a 7% premium over Friday's closing price of $64.96.

Imclone have had a rocky ride , investors have seen shares fall as low as $6 and rise as high as $87 - and deals in them led to the jailing of founder Samuel Waksal and style guru / part time cook Martha Stewart tasting poridge in unfamiliar circumstances.

Carl Icahn, the billionaire investor and chairman of ImClone's board, who got control in 2006 will no doubt be pleased with the result and returns on his investment (14%) and has approved Lilly's offer for his shares.

Lilly is seeing big competition to their biggest drugs, including schizophrenia blockbuster Zyprexa and some observers see this is a move from weakness. As a cash deal it is going to drain the company's cash position.

Lilly say they will take a one-time charge (how big no one is saying or maybe knows) to its earnings. The company expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings on a cash basis in 2012 and on a net basis in 2013.

Lilly's ,aim anti-cancer drug, Gemzar®, loses patent protection in 2012 , it is commonly used to treat non-small cell lung cancer, pancreatic, bladder and breast cancer. .Erbitux®, which is approved to treat colon cancer and head and neck cancer and whose cancer has spread to other parts of the body and whose tumor expresses a protein called an Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR). , is ImClone's only marketed product, and generated $1.3 billion in sales last year.

The fate of ERBITUX® remains unclear as both Bristol and ImClone claim the rights - it is assumed the position must have been clarified.

1. Thales UK, together with BVT, Babcock Marine, BAE Systems and MOD, have formed the catchy titled Aircraft Carrier Alliance (ACA) to manufacture and assemble the new carriers. Thales UK has responsibility for leading the power and propulsion element of CVF. The company is responsible for procurement, systems design, overall systems integration, ship integration (with shipyards), programme management and safety analysis. Thales has reached a sub-alliance agreement with Rolls-Royce, Converteam and L-3 Communications

Converteam (Rugby and Glasgow):* High voltage equipment* Electric power control and monitoring system* Propulsion equipment* High voltage system and electric propulsion system analysis.

L3 Communications (Bristol and Barrow):* Integrated Platform Management System (provides automation needed to control and monitor the power and propulsion systems)* Condition Monitoring System.

3. A contract for emergency Diesel Generators has previously been awarded to Wartsila Lips Defence, which will provide a dedicated power supply to retain a fire fighting capability, even in the unlikely event of a total loss of electrical power.

Ina novel arrangement ,each carrier will have two propellers powered by two electric motors which will make them the largest warships in the world to use electric rather than mechanical drive technology.

This physical arrangment allows the primary power untis - gas turbine driven generators that power them to be located high in the ship which provides greater space in the hull and providws greater resilience to battle damage.

The pic shows some aircraft using the decks - what they will be and where they will come from is a decision not yet finalised. More pics here

PS: Dear Worried of Wolverhampton : Just think of the 2 CVF's and the aircraft they may eventually field ,as say, 20% of the cost of nationalising the Bradford and Bungle.