Makes sense; use Karzai as an Oswald and blame him for pulling out. Cheaper and faster than the only other real option: a huge surge of troops to pacify the country for a few months before a hasty declaration of "victory" and an even faster retreat.

Of course, whatever reason Obama gives for bringing the troops home won't stop everyone else, especially Terry, from seeing it as anything other than a humiliating defeat for America.

More likely just a threat to make him put his house in order. Whilst Karzai is not great, the US will probably continue their campaign even with him. Hopefully this will make some progress at good governance however, it should make winning the people over a more likely prospect.

Plus they can't pull out in just 6 months, give it a year so I have my turn to get a sun tan and all!

Attached Files:

A second conference, six months later, will be convened to measure achievement. If Mr Karzai doesnât meet his targets, several options are being considered, including scaling back the military presence.

Click to expand...

So, in 6 months time, a decision might be taken which would result in a smaller presence. This is nowhere near the same as "out in 6 months", as the withdrawal process from Iraq showed (and the footprint there was much more concentrated - especially once we had withdrawn from central Basra).

Politicans both sides of the pond would dearly like to convince the public that they have a exit strategy in ref to Afghan BUT in the real world ISAF's long term home for a considerable number of years will be in this AOR, the politicans in the UK have the Election matters as a priority along with the Lisbon Treaty arguements to contend with.

Iran & other super power trouble-some nations are a long distance thought due to shortage of resources, a military option to our well known rogue nations is very "highly unlikely" as they have vast amount of manpower compared to the contribution of the UN, were struggling to get countries to supply manpower to Afghan so what chance (very little) have the UN got of that type of option elsewhere & these rogue countries are fully aware of this situation INC the Pols.

The commitment in Afghan is large & heavy in that AOR, ISAF won't be going anywhere else in large numbers for a long time to come

Paddy Ashdown has suggested we bypass Karzai altogether and deal directly with tribal and local leaders. I suspect that is what the US have actually said to Karzai, rather than threatening him with withdrawal, which just sounds like a bluff.