96 days — Today’s GUEST Playbooker is … (Hint: The first MUSIC Blink)By:
MICHAEL CROWLEY
on July 31, 2008 @ 9:48 AM

Michael CROWLEY, senior editor of The New Republic, and a stalwart of “The Stump: Obsessive coverage of the ’08 race," is today's GUEST PLAYBOOKER:

BREAKING: Good morning. We are honored to sub for the utterly incomparable Mr. Allen…. Hillary Clinton to give prime-time speech on Tuesday night of Democratic convention, sources tell CNN… Obama-Clinton ticket group folds tent… Obama back in Iowa… Ted Stevens in court… President Bush speaks to reporters about “return on success” in Iraq, says last of surge brigades have returned home…
SURGE DEBATE RAGES BUT SURGE ENDS: Bush this morning, via AP: “The progress in Iraq has allowed us to continue our policy of return on success… We have now brought home all five of the combat brigades and the three Marine units that were sent to Iraq as part of the surge. The last of these surge brigades returned home this month."

DRIVING THE DAY: NYT’S Jim Rutenberg on the McCain team’s strategy to define Obama as “arrogant, out of touch, and unprepared for the presidency.” “I would say that it is beyond dispute that he has become the biggest celebrity in the world,” Mr. Schmidt said in a conference call with reporters on Wednesday. “The question that we are posing to the American people is this: ‘Is he ready to lead yet?’ And the answer to the question that we will offer to the American people is: ‘No he is not.’ ”

A LITTLE BIRD ASKS: "Don’t quote me here…but how has no one pointed out the irony of [McCain's Steve] Schmidt attacking a 'celebrity' candidate when his claim to fame is getting the Terminator reelected?" Schwing.

STRAIGHT TALK’S NOT ALWAYS A GOOD THING: WashPost’s Eilperin on whether McCain can ever run the kind of carefully-scripted campaign presidential politics seems to demand: “[T]he sharp-edged approach is being orchestrated for an unpredictable candidate who often chafes at delivering the campaign's message of the day. It is that freewheeling style that has made him popular with voters and cemented his reputation for candor and straight talk.”

“McCain, who was most comfortable as an underdog in the unscripted environment of the New Hampshire primary, makes his advisers cringe as he delivers the attack line -- and then keeps talking. In that respect, he is no Bush, his handlers say.”

VIDEO: At Newsweek.com, Tammy Haddad has an exclusive "TamCam" of Alex Castellanos on the new McCain ad.

Opines JAMES CARVILLE: “`If you took everything that Samantha Power and Jim Johnson and Geraldine Ferraro did, and took it to the 10th power, it still doesn't amount to nothing.”

ON THE COVER OF TIME: Special report on the economy and the election, with split Platon portraits of McCain and Obama. (He did Putin for the Person of the Years Issue.) With Justin Fox on PAULSON and Joe Klein on THE RECESSION ELECTION. Plus Amy Sullivan drops in on Michigan and finds “doubts about Obama” making the state a toss-up.

PLAYBOOK FRIENDS: Ask GALPER whether he’s found housing in Denver. Tell TRACY to enjoy the beach (but not to rub it in). And visit MIKE HACKER in his storied (and huge) new Dupont apartment. Also: Ask your guest Playbooker whether GABRIEL BYRNE was at his neighborhood coffee shop again today.

KAINE MANIA: The Virginia gov and prospective Obama veep pick hit Charlie Rose last night and played it a little more coy than earlier in the day: “It’s nice to be mentioned. My mom is a happy person out in Kansas as she sees my name mentioned. But in terms of conversations with the campaign, I think I’ll just keep them between me and the campaign.

ROSE: “Do you want to change Washington politics?”
KAINE : “Absolutely. Absolutely…. I feel very in tune with Barack on vision.”

RACE CARD: Jake TAPPER says Obama is suggesting that McCain and his team are using race-based appeals and calls that “inflammatory.” “There's a lot of racist xenophobic crap out there. But not only has McCain not peddled any of it, he's condemned it. “

STEVENS UPDATE: The Alaska senator is due in federal court at 1pm ET, says AP’s Apuzzo. He’ll need a judge’s permission to travel, kind of important if he wants to campaign for reelection.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE: Bloomberg’s Litvan and Whitten see one thing that might save Republicans this fall: “Congressional Republicans, confronted with a slowing economy, an unpopular president and ethics embarrassments that threaten a wave of voter wrath, are clinging to a political lifeline: drilling for oil.

“Republican demands that Congress open new areas to drilling to address record gasoline prices have put Democrats on the defensive. Several measures unrelated to energy legislation have languished as Republicans blocked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's bids to change the legislative subject away from drilling.

"'It's one issue where Republicans see a glimmer of hope,''' said Nathan Gonzales, an editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington."

HOLY COW Longtime McCain critic JAMES DOBSON told his Focus on the Family audience he “might” endorse the GOP nominee. Says Obama’s “radical positions on life, marriage and national security force me to re-evaluate the candidacy of our only other choice, John McCain. I have not endorsed him, but … I have concluded for the first time that I might. If that is a flip-flop, then so be it.”

NEVER GIVE UP: Hillary’s ultra-loyal friend LANNY DAVIS in the WSJ: “I believe it would be in Sen. Obama's personal and political interest to select Hillary Rodham Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Not just to enhance his chances of winning — but, more important, to help him be a more effective president…. one undisputable fact: Sen. Clinton is the only Democrat who gives Sen. Obama a statistically significant boost in any national poll results.”

AND YET: AP’s Pickler says the group formally pressing for a joint ticket is packing it in. “The two former Clinton staffers who started the group Vote Both say Obama's decision to offer Clinton a prime-time speaking role at the Democratic Party nominating convention and other signals suggest Obama will not choose her.

"'Because it seems that Sen. Obama has made his decision to offer the slot on the ticket to another candidate, we believe that continuing to ask him to pick Hillary is no longer helpful to our party's chances of winning in November,'" Adam Parkhomenko and Sam Arora wrote in an e-mail they planned to send Thursday to the 40,000-plus supporters who signed onto their online petition. Obama spokesman Bill Burton said the campaign won't comment on the vice presidential search and hasn't finalized the convention speaking program. Obama and Clinton advisers have said Clinton is likely to speak on the convention's second night, Aug. 26, which is the 88th anniversary of the ratification of the amendment giving the women the right to vote.”

LOSING STRATEGY?: TNR’s Jon Chait opines in today’s LAT: “Obama is making the enormous mistake of letting the race be entirely about him, which is the only way he can lose…. Obama's strategy seems predicated on convincing voters that they really, really like the inexperienced black guy with the foreign-sounding name. Convincing them not to vote for the other guy, the one who embraces the least popular president in modern history, sounds like a better bet to me.”

ROVE FOR ROMNEY: Karl Rove discussed McCain’s veep choice with Sean Hannity last night: “He’s probably looking at a lot more names than people think. We looked at 24 names in 2000. And Bill Clinton looked at 41 names. If I were picking, I’d pick ROMNEY but it’s a very tough choice.”

Do closer Minn numbers (further) raise Tim Pawlenty’s stock? Other polls have shown the state nearly out of reach.

SCOOP 1– AP: “Obama’s convention crowd: Biggest phone bank ever,” by Nedra Pickler and Ron Fournier, from Denver: “Those 75,000 Democrats who will pack a football stadium for Barack Obama's convention speech won't be there just to whoop and holler on television. They'll form the world's largest phone bank to boost voter registration — fired-up supporters using computer targeting the campaign has spent months putting together.

“The move to the Invesco Field at Mile High stadium for the convention's final night next month — at an additional cost of $5 million — will capture a huge crowd the Obama campaign plans to put to work. They'll be armed with data gleaned through "microtargeting" unregistered voters the campaign believes are ripe to back Obama if pressed to get on board. ‘If we do this right, we'll be unbeatable,’ said Steve Hildebrand, the Obama adviser overseeing the effort.”

PAGE SIX has Hillary in “MYSTERY POWWOW”: The New York senator was guest of honor at Tuesday's hush-hush powwow that raised speculation about a possible White House run in 2012. The gathering was hosted by California Sen. Dianne Feinstein and attended by Ellen Malcolm, founder of EMILY's List, which supports pro-choice female Dems; Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), chair of the New Democrat Coalition; and Hilary Rosen, former Recording Industry Association of America CEO who's now political director of the Huffington Post.

A source tells Page Six they all met for dinner at Charlie Palmer Steak, a chophouse noted for its cellar of 10,000 bottles of wine and spectacular views of the Capitol.
Clintonites respond to PLAYBOOK:
--"They caught us. Which is a real surprise, since we thought nobody would catch them in the middle of Charlie Palmer's."
--"They are on to us! Every dinner is actually a meeting to discuss 2012."

FROM PLAYBOOK HQ--SPOTTED: Who needs the CFR when you have a table at Cafe Milano with Alex Castellanos, Barbara Comstock, Betsy Fischer, Todd Harris, Kevin "Two Kids" Madden and Steve McMahon?

THE PAUL FACTOR: AP’s Hennessey on the threat Ron Paul’s libertarian fans might pose to McCain in the crucial west: “Paul placed second — ahead of McCain — in Republican caucuses in Nevada and Montana. He posted strong showings in nominating contests in Colorado, Washington and Oregon. In early June, he pulled away 14 percent of the vote from the already certain nominee in the New Mexico primary. This is the West that McCain must win.”

WHERE’S MY FLAIR? In case you missed, the bell has tolled for Bennigans. WSJ says the chain is going Chapter 7 and will close down 300 restaurants.

MUSIC BLINK: AIMEE MANN plays the 9:30 Club Saturday. If you only know her from Til Tuesday you don’t know her! (Will SUSAN MCCUE be there?) BON IVER at the Black Cat tomorrow is already sold out — scalp if you can. Playbook thanks DAN HARRIS for telling us about this guy. And will ADAM ever wake up and smell the SIGUR ROS?

CELEBRITY NEWS: And BRITNEY is dropping her restraining order against SAM LUTFI but still doesn't want to see or hear from him, AP reports.

YOU HAVE TO WONDER ABOUT whether Senator John McCain is on a political suicide mission, or is his campaign just as reckless, aimless, moronic, petty, predictable, deceptive and disorganized as he is increasingly proving by the week. If this is the most he has to show as a presidential candidate, then the best and truly qualified choice for the next President of the United States is Senator Barack Obama. No doubt, these are very perilous political and economic times for Americans of every socioeconomic circumstance and ethnicity. Instability in a candidate's character and campaigning is a scary sign of things to come. Even wedge issue groups are in no mood to be bamboozled or talked down to with the usual GOP schoolyard logic and rhetoric. Unfortunately, the more he speaks (or as surrogates speak for him), Mr. McCain is effectively transforming his much hyped so-called "leadership" and "experience" into a bad name and truly dubious qualification. What happened to his pledge of a clean and civil campaign by him and numerous supporters? Moreover, as sad as it is to witness, Senator McCain is diminishing the genuine integrity of his legacy by acting like the cliche schizophrenic old soldier that's still fighting the last war in his head. Get it together or get real Mr. McCain! --- dennis@DCIndependents.org

I think if they had not tried to force this man too make her his VP he would have considered it. But, because she and her group are compulsive strong arm people they didn't and don't know how to be humble.

Hummm...McCain doesn't seem to get it yet. Phil Gramm is likely going to be indicted soon due to his role as Vice-Chair of UBS and its direction in selling auction rate securities that were a 'nightmare'-while exiting their holdings in these securities both for the company and their personal holdings. UBS is also under indictment for other criminal activities with more indictments likely to come.

Anyone who is following the economy and the market knows Gramm as senator and others are at the root of many of our economic woes that goes back to their seats of power in our government which included legislation allowing them to garner more power and more wealth even after they left office. UGH. YUP....I BE WHINING.

One successfully prosecuted case against UBS was the use of accounts in UBS by the uber-wealthy in America to avoid taxation, more is to come. One has to wonder if there isn't some brewery money in there, well-hidden and masked. No more I say, enough.

Frankly, those who created this ponzi scheme of a credit-based economy endlessly expanding on credit I hope become the whiners when their views are blocked by bars.