Political risks work like the elixir of life for Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and she opted for another dose last fortnight when she dismissed governments in nine states where the Opposition parties had been routed in the parliamentary polls. INDIA TODAY analyses the voting patterns in eight of them to make projections on the outcome of the Assembly elections based on the January popularity levels of the parties.

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Arul B. Louis

.Prabhu Chawla

February 6, 2014

ISSUE DATE: March 15, 1980

UPDATED: November 14, 2014 16:10 IST

Banarasi Das

The initial euphoria over the Congress(I)'s sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections died down somewhat when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi found that her style was being cramped by an Opposition dominated Rajya Sabha and with most of the state governments outside her control. Only Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland were under her party's command.

Her trouble-shooters like Yashpal Kapoor dashed from state to state dangling carrots and brandishing sticks to bring the non-Congress(I) states in line with their party's thinking. But they could engineer the defections in only four others - Karnataka, Sikkim, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.

Ram Sunder Das

Control of the state legislatures is vital for Mrs Gandhi. Without it she would not be able to implement her election promise of restoring law and order and enforcing price control. Both are primarily state responsibilities. Moreover, 84 members are to be elected to the Rajya Sabha this year from the states. The Congress(I), which is already in a minority in the Upper House, would be further depleted if the Opposition-dominated state legislatures were allowed to elect the new members.

Reasons: By dissolving the nine state assemblies, Mrs Gandhi wants to ensure that her Congress is put into power in all or at least most of the states. If things go her way - and indications are that they will - it will, no doubt, facilitate as The Times of India observed, its "task of ruling the country with a firm hand." If her stern measures, initiated at the Centre, are not put into effect at the state level, they will be reduced to impotency.

Bhairon Singh Shekhawat

Though the dismissal of the state governments of the nine states, where the Congress(I) had swept the polls, was fraught with serious consequences, the Union Cabinet decided on February 17, to order the Sunday night massacre of these states. They were the Janata Party-ruled Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Lok Dal's Orissa and Uttar Pradesh, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK)-run Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra, run by a coalition headed by the "Parallel Congress."

An India Today analysis of the January 1980 Lok Sabha poll voting pattern, according to Assembly segments in eight of the nine states, shows that at the early January level of Congress(I) popularity, the party runs the risk of getting defeated in the state Assembly elections in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan if the Opposition parties unite. But if this does not happen, the Congress(I) can win a majority in all the states.

Sundar Lal Patwa

Precedent: The Congress(I) citing the dangerous precedent set by the Janata Party which dismissed nine Congress governments in 1977 on the grounds that they had lost their mandate, only seeks to make an expediency of the rule, threatening the spirit of the Constitution while going by its letter.

The Constitution envisages a federal system and the Centre's right to dismiss a state Government is meant for extraordinary situations. Invoking this in the present case only provides for "the right of recall," a principle advocated by Jayaprakash Narayan by which legislators who had lost the confidence of their electorate would be unseated in mid-term.

Sharad Pawar

The Congress(I) had condemned it. Though this strikes a blow at the root of state autonomy, a principle which the Congress(I) anyway refuses to accept, the most ardent advocates of it have been left untouched. The governments of West Bengal and Tripura, controlled by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and Jammu and Kashmir ruled by Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah's National Conference, were spared the axe because their parliamentary and Assembly performances matched.

In Kerala, CPI-M-led coalition was elected in the Assembly elections, held after the parliamentary poll. But these governments are nevertheless nervous. The DMK, which was among the first to advocate state autonomy for political reasons, supports the dismissals.

Under the Constitution, the Rajya Sabha is meant to be a check on the Lower House and its powers had been limited by excluding veto rights over financial measures so that it did not hamper the functioning of the Government. Ordering state elections to change the composition of the Upper House cuts at the root of the constitutional principle.

Prakash Sing Badal

Expectation Belied: The Congress(I) had hoped the dismissal and the election of new assemblies would be a short, swift affair and the new Congress(I) governments would be in place by mid-April. The soft, indulgent phase of government could then yield to a no-nonsense style of tough governance, starting with the new budget. Moreover, this would have obviated the need to get the approval of Parliament for the ordinances imposing President's rule in these states. As things stand, the Rajya Sabha is certain to disapprove of the move.

The Constitution allows a two-month period at the end of which the ordinance would have to be approved by Parliament. The measure could be blocked in the Rajya Sabha where the Congress(I) is in a minority But Chief Election Commissioner S. L. Shakdhar threw a spanner in the works by declaring that elections cannot be held before June because the voters' list had to be updated. He cited the complaints made by the various political parties about irregularities in the electoral rolls in defence of the time-consuming move.

Babubhai Patel

This decision of Shakdhar means that the country which has been without effective governance from last August, when the Desai government fell, would continue till July under this state of political uncertainty. The Congress(I) would have to retain its populist plank and postpone all tough measures till after the Assembly elections. The state governments in these nine states - including the populous Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and economically the most important, Maharashtra - would be run by bureaucrats who cannot take major policy decisions.Chaos to Instability: The leaders in the Centre and in the other states would be so involved in electioneering over the next few months that they would have little time to devote to governing the country. As a result of this, there would be no appreciable improvement in the economy and the bureaucracy would find it difficult to keep up its tempo for four months. All this may tell on the popularity of the Congress(I) which has roused high expectations among the people.

But a Congress(I) leader remarked: "This instability for four months because of the elections is better than the chaos for two more years."

Nilamony Rautray

Moreover, except in two states, Punjab and Bihar, all the governors are cronies of former prime minister Morarji Desai and except for Rajasthan's Raghukul Tilak, belonged to the Congress(O). They can all be counted upon to create problems for the Centre. Tamil Nadu's faddist Governor Prabhudas Patwari repealed the relaxation of prohibition as soon as he took over. Uttar Pradesh's G. D. Tapase, who is under orders of transfer to Haryana, reversed the decision to withdraw quotas for backward and scheduled casts and tribes in promotions. The Centre is appointing trusted - retired and serving - bureaucrats as governors' advisers to keep a tight rein on their fads.

The political instability that accompanies every election may be a necessary evil in democracy. But their recent frequency in India seems to have made them almost into a national sport. And an expensive one at that. When elephants fight it is the grass that suffers, goes an African proverb. The fate of the Indian electorate is worse than that of African grass-they are trampled everytime politicians choose to fight for the spoils of power.

M. G. Ramchandran

India Today has analysed the Assembly-wise breakdown of voting pattern in the recent parliamentary election in eight of the nine states for which the data was available. This gives an indication of the number of seats that the various parties would get at their January popularity levels if the Opposition fought as an electoral front or if it was disunited, India Today correspondents report on the situation in the states:Uttar Pradesh: Though the Congress(I) won 51 out of the 85 parliamentary seats in the state, it polled only 35.7 per cent of the votes - just 7 per cent more than the Lok Dal which polled 28.4 per cent and won 29 seats. The Janata Party polled 22.5 per cent and won three seats. The Congress(I) which gained from the split in the Opposition votes, led in 226 out of the 425 Assembly segments. But if the Opposition votes are combined, the lead over the Congress(I) would be in 328 segments.

While the ousted chief minister Banarasi Das of the Lok Dal talks of the people of the state giving a "befitting reply to Indira Gandhi's high-handedness," state Congress (I) chief, Dharam Veer, says: "With President's rule they can't rig the elections. Moreover, the people know, only we can give them a stable government."

Dharam Veer, former chief minister N. D. Tewari and Mohsina Kidwai are the main contenders in the Congress(I) for the state leadership. The dark horses are Sanjay Gandhi and his namesake and lieutenant, Sanjay Singh, the state Youth Congress(I) president.

If the Lok Dal and Janata unite to fight the elections, the Lok Dal would be the senior partner. And if they win the contenders for chief ministership would be Banarasi Das, Charan Singh's lieutenant and party secretary, Narendra Singh and Chandrajit Yadav.

Bihar: In the recent elections the Congress(I) won 30 out of the 54 parliamentary seats with 36.2 per cent of the votes. The Lok Dal polled 16.6 per cent and won five seats while the Janata Party got eight seats with 23.6 per cent of the votes. The congress(I) led in 166 out of the 325 Assembly segments. But if their votes are combined, the Opposition parties would lead in 239 segments and the Congress(I) in only 83.

The Opposition parties are trying to create a test-tube hybrid called the Janata Congress Lok Manch to face the poll. But former chief minister and Congress(I) leader Jagannath Mishra says he is not afraid of the electoral Frankenstein. Adds Kamal Nath Singh Thakur, another Congress(I) leader: "Our base has been further strengthened because the backward castes, impressed by the victories of their castemen on our tickets, are leaving the Lok Dal and coming to us."

But the Congress(I) is riven with factionalism. The supporters of another former chief minister Kedar Pandey are carrying on a campaign against Mishra, who is the strongest Congress(I) contender for the chief ministership. The Janata Party has a leadership vacuum and state Janata Party chief Satyendra Narain Sinha is a likely candidate if the Janata Party has to nominate the chief minister.

Rajasthan: In the Lok Sabha poll, the Congress(I) won 18 out of 25 parliamentary seats with 42.6 per cent of the votes while the Janata Party got four seats with 30.4 per cent and the Lok Dal two with 12.1 per cent. The Congress(I) led in 126 Assembly segments out of 200. But the combined votes of the Opposition was more than that of the Congress(I) in 119 segments.

While the dismissed chief minister, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, remains the undisputed Janata Party leader, there are many contenders in the Congress(I). They include state party chief Paras Ram, former Congress(I) legislature party leader, Ram Kishore Vyas and Chandan Mal Baid, a one-time finance minister. The dark horse, however, is former chief minister, Mohan Lai Sukhadia who joined the Congress(I) recently on the eve of the parliamentary poll.Madhya Pradesh: The Congress(I) secured 35 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats with 47.1 per cent of the votes. It led in 257 out of the 320 Assembly segments and even if the Opposition votes are combined, it still leads in 208 segments. Thus, the party at the Lok Sabha popularity level is invincible here.

The former Congress(I) legislature party leader, Arjun Singh, and state party chief, S. Solanki are the front runners for the chief ministership. But Madhavrao Scindia of the House of Gwalior, is a dark horse.Maharashtra: The Congress(I) won an absolute majority of votes-53.3 per cent - to get 39 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. It led in 206 of the 288 Assembly segments and it would still lead in 153 segments if the Opposition votes are added up.

The Congress(I) hopes to be allied with the chauvinistic Shiv Sena, the Muslim League, Peasants and Workers Party, two of the four Republican party splinter groups and the Janata Party rebels. Ranged against them would be the Janata Party, the Communist Party of Indian (CPI), the CPI-Marxist, two Republican Party factions and the Congress (U) with which dismissed chief minister Sharad Pawar's Parallel Congress and the Prajatantra Congress are going to be merged.

The Congress(l)'s hottest tip for the chief ministership is Vasantdada Patil.Punjab: The Congress (I) which polled 52.4 per cent of the votes to sweep 12 out of the 13 parliamentary constituencies led in 93 out of 117 Assembly segments. If the Opposition votes are combined, it still leads in 80 segments.

In the race for chief ministership are the state Congress(I) chief, Darbara Singh, former Haryana governor, Harcharan Singh Brar and former Lok Sabha speaker Gurdial Singh Dhillon.

Gujarat: The Congress(I) is in a strong position, having won 25 out of 26 seats in the Lok Sabha poll. It led in 154 out of 182 Assembly segments and in 134 segments won more votes than that of the combined Opposition.

Factionalism has raised its head again in the state Congress(I) and three rival groups are behind the contenders for power -state Congress(I) chief Madhav Singh Solanki, Rathubhai Adani and Fatehsingh Rao Gaekwad, the former prince of Baroda.

Orissa: The Congress(I) won 52.4 per cent of the votes to secure 19 out of the 20 parliamentary seats for which elections were held.

Former chief minister Nandini Satpathy, who recently quit the Janata Party, may join the Congress(I) if Mrs Gandhi would let her, and stake a claim to lead the state.

Tamil Nadu: Indira Gandhi was not keen to dismiss the government of her onetime ally, M. G. Ramachandran of AIADMK. But the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which was her ally in the recent parliamentary poll, demanded its pound of flesh with the backing of Sanjay Gandhi.

The DMK polled 23 per cent of the votes and won 16 out of 39 seats while the Congress(I) won 20 seats with 31 per cent votes. Their ally, the Muslim League won one seat.

Out of the 234 Assembly segments, the Congress(I) led in 119 and the DMK in 83. The other Opposition parties were ahead in only 26 and if their votes are combined, they lead in only two more. The Congress(I)-DMK coalition, which runs the neighbouring Pondicherry Union territory, is invincible in the state.

The tacit understanding between the DMK and the Congress(I) was that while the national party would contest a larger number of parliamentary seats, the regional party would fight for more seats in the state elections. But now the Congress(I) would like to renege this argeement and get more seats than the DMK. This could be a tricky issue for them to solve.

The AIADMK is putting together a 14-party front comprising the Janata, Lok Dal, Congress(U), CPI, CPI-M and small groups like the Gandhi-Kamaraj Congress and the Toilers' Progressive Party. While former chief minister, Muthuvel Karunanidhi is the undisputed DMK candidate for chief ministership, the Congress(I) is hard put to find a man to match him. Karuppiah Moopanar, a former state Congress(I) president could be a possible contender, but the younger party elements resent what they call his "feudal" background. The party may prop up one of its youth leaders in that case.