A close call between BJP’s SS Ahluwalia and TMC’s Baichung Bhutia

Baichung Bhutia and SS Ahluwalia are both considered outsiders but voters aren’t concerned what colour their MP wears: all they want is governance.

Chance meetings with two people at the top of their game summed up the poll scenario in Darjeeling. The first, Prabahakar, is a native of Darjeeling, currently doing his geography masters from Vishwa Bharati University at Shantiniketan. The second, Anjan Dutta, needs no reference and was mobbed all afternoon on the mall before ET caught up with him opposite Glenary’s.

“There used to be a lot of math till grad and now it’s all statistics. God you have got to be cool to constantly analyse and juggle with figures,” said Prabhakar. “But Darjeeling this time beats analysis, for the fight will be bitter. Like me, almost all students who are natives of Darjeeling, are afraid. And we are very confused,” he said.

“I have spent a lifetime here and I have come to visit a few old friends en route Sikkim. Believe me, there isn’t a clear choice. But I think Darjeeling wants governance, that’s the long and short of what I was able to gather,” said Dutta, singer, musician, film actor and director.

Almost 95% of people ET spoke to across the hills agreed with the two assessments. Between these two individual opinions lies a sad tale of murder, muscle and a malfunctioning economy. Darjeeling is desperate to get out of this black hole that is sucking it in, but doesn’t quite know how. This is the height of summer, the mercury in Kolkata is hovering a shade short of 40*C and yet hotels in and around the mall are fairly empty. Shops catering to tourists along Mall Road, Robertson Road or HD Lama Road are largely vacant. Business is in the pits.

It has been like this for some years now and dates back to when Madan Tamang, the Akhil Bhartiya Gorkha League president was hacked to death opposite Planter’s Club on May 21, 2010. “Business is bad and it gets going only in fits and starts between bouts of political unrest,” said BM Garg, president, Darjeeling Chamber of Commerce. Garg is the chairman of the Darjeeling Gymkhana Club and the owner of the only Inox-Big Bazar property just below the mall. The property had once housed a skating rink, which later became a theatre hall called Rink, before Garg bought the property. That’s about the only connect Darjeeling has had with modern times. The rest, like the stuttering toy train service, is more than a century old.

Thousand Eyes Watching

Fear stalks Darjeeling as the day of reckoning draws nearer. “Please don’t ask me about the elections. Let me just say there are a thousand eyes watching,” said the poor half-drunk pony-wallah on the mall. Across Darjeeling, Kurseong and Kalimpong, locals look away or pretend to be busy the moment you ask about the elections. So much for tension-free polls. Election Commission observers move about in piloted vehicles without perhaps realizing the peaceful ambience is just a facade.

In that respect, Darjeeling is a microcosm of the prevailing scenario in West Bengal, where the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is determined to consolidate its position and de-throne the Opposition, wherever it exists. In several constituencies, knives are being sharpened and button-men are being told what their duty on poll day will be. But up here in the hills, it’s worse.

Nobody wants to follow Madan Tamang to the grave. Everyone is scared of the knock on the door late at night. “It is reminiscent of the days when the SS used to do the same in Hitler’s Germany, or here in Bengal during the Naxalite days of the early 1970s,” said an 86-year-old retired soldier of the Indian Army. “They come in groups of 5 or 10, drunk and armed. They tell you to do something and then it’s up to you,” said an old woman at the corner of Ladenla Road.

“We need an administration which will help this place to prosper. It doesn’t matter which colour the MP wears. The roads need to be repaired, drinking water scarcity removed,” said Garg. It was a tourists’ paradise for so long but today there isn’t a single parking lot in the hills. “This is Lok Sabha polls, but a good MP can contribute hugely towards development of his constituency,” added Garg.

Bimal Gurung, who is called “Gojamumu” courtesy the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha that he heads, is confident that BJP candidate SS Ahluwalia will win hands down. Baichung Bhutia, bless his naivety, is equally confident of taking Ahluwalia’s pants off. It’s as if he is the only one in the penalty box and the goalie is out of position. “My biggest worry is whether I’ll be able to win by the biggest margin in Bengal,” he boasted. Baichung is Mamata’s candidate for Darjeeling.

This is a constituency that has three assembly segments in the hills and four in the plains in and around Siliguri. On the hills, you can only see BJP posters and Gojamumu’s flags fluttering. Down in the plains, it’s mostly Trinamool. In the hills, nobody knows Ahluwalia and no one respects Baichung on the political ground. Both are considered outsiders. “Ahluwalia may be the BJP all-India vice president, but who knows him here? Equally, what has Baichung done for Darjeeling hills anyway? All he has done is amass wealth, petrol pumps, real estate…the works,” said a student of Darjeeling Government College.

So who will win?

“Your guess is as good as mine, but it’s a choice between the devil and the deep sea,” said DP Pradhan, a Kalimpong hotel owner, who is a psephologist at leisure. Prediction is difficult because it will be the third parties who hold the key actually. Ahluwalia and Baichung are defined contestants. But their votes this time would be snatched by the likes of Subhas Ghising who is backing Mamata, Prof Mahendra Lama who is contesting as an independent, the Congress, Left Front and at least 13 others,” he said. “There is a dark horse too, a religious guru by the name of Satpal Maharaj, who is supporting BJP and he wields substantial influence in the hills.”

Explaining the math, Pradhan says the plains have 8 lakh voters, of whom if 70% vote, the turnout will be 5.60 lakh. “If the CPIM gets 1.50 lakh, Congress 50,000, Mahendra Lama about 10,000 and the minors some 20-30,000 votes, Ahluwalia can hope to get about a lakh votes, considering that TMC will most certainly get 2 lakh votes,” he said. “The floating mass will account for another 30,000 odd votes,” he adds.

“The hills have 6 lakh voters and the voting percentage is usually higher. So if 80% come out to cast their ballot, the turnout will be 4.80 approximately. If TMC gets 1.5, Lama 70,000, CPIM 20,000 and others 20,000 odd, Ahluwalia will get something around 2.20 lakh votes. What happens in this scenario is plains and hills combined, the GJM-BJP combine may get around 3.20 lakh votes compared to 3.50 lakh votes for the TMC-Subhas Ghising combine,” Pradhan said. “It’s definitely going to be touch-and-go for either and the margin is bound to be extra low” he said.

And that’s where the fear lies. Cornered by Mamata and sulking for the past few months, if he loses Gojamumu will either be shattered or more brutal. If he wins, he will be happy scoring over Mamata. But his “Gorkhaland” hopes will still remain as distant as it is now, for the BJP isn’t going to be seen as being party to it. If Mamata wins with her promises of turning Darjeeling into Sikkim, the hills might be fooled yet again for Kolkata hasn’t still become London. Besides, her promise of transforming Darjeeling to Switzerland, made in May 2011, is now running some 3 years behind schedule.

Whipped up by the cold March winds, Darjeeling awaits its date with destiny.

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