Category Archives: Sunday with the Senators

We’re 17 days out from the election, and while the main event seems like a foregone conclusion, the Senate is pretty much a nail-biter. Matt will have the Senate race rankings up tonight and we’ll see the specifics, but first, a little context, and a race that no one is looking at, which may actually delay knowing who controls the Senate until 10 December.

Let’s play. We need a net of 4 seats to take back the Senate, assuming that Secretary Clinton wins the general, and thus Tim Kaine would be the tie-breaker. Based on current projections, we’ll pick up Indiana, Wisconsin and Illinois. Will we hold Nevada? Maybe. If we do we need one more, if not, we need two. The likeliest options should be Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Should be. Could be. The data indicate that if Secretary Clinton wins by 7 points in Pennsylvania and 6 points in New Hampshire, her coattails will be enough. I have been following New Hampshire from a distance and it appears very close. Ayotte is constantly tied to Trump in ads. For some reason, a lot of politicians don’t seem to get that everyone has a phone, and thus video capabilities, and when you call Donald Trump “a role model” that’s going to make the ads even if you disavow some of his actions. A lot will depend on how much money is poured into the ads in the next couple weeks. The polls have been tied, and just yesterday WMUR said that Hassan is 8 points ahead: is it an outlier or has the die been cast?

Pennsylvania is so tight there’s no daylight in the polls. Brooklyn knows this and that’s why both Clinton and Kaine will be in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia today. Should be noted that Secretary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, Senator Kaine, President and Mrs. Obama, Vice President Biden and even Bubba the Big Dog have all been here. Upcoming in the next two weeks, Anne Holton (Senator Kaine’s wife), Jill Biden, Jon Bon Jovi and Katy Perry. It seems as though the street closure information is an almost daily occurrence on the traffic reports.Continue Reading...

The candidates are Pat Toomey, the incumbent junior Senator vs. Katie McGinty, most recently Chief of Staff for Governor Tom Wolf. In the interest of full disclosure, I know Katie: she lives nearby and we’ve run our dogs together. I don’t know Pat Toomey, although as a constituent, I often call/write his office to complain. Okay, that’s that, now let’s get down to brass tacks.

As I mentioned last Sunday, most people (namely pollsters) see this as a toss-up, but I see Katie winning. If you look at the RCP average, it would look like a toss-up, with the candidates being essentially tied with one point either way, well within the margin of error. Cook has it as a toss-up, as does Sabato, and I could go on. But they’re wrong. Part of the issue is that the polls have been steadily moving from Pat being up by 7 – 10 points, but the margin keeps shrinking. Part of that was due to the fact that he had a lot of name recognition, and Katie had much less.

Generally, it’s a good thing that people know who you are, but this isn’t working out so well for Pat, who may be known, but has an overall -9 approval rating (30/39) and when asked whether people would be more or less likely to support him if he continued obstructionism related to Merrick Garland, that increased to 23/40 or -17. Franklin and Marshall has McGinty at 25/25, because the electorate is just starting to get to know her. From that same poll, which is also the most recent, having been run from 7/29 – 8/1, has Clinton at -2, Trump at -29, and their matchup at Clinton 47%, Trump 34% and Gary Johnson 7%.Continue Reading...

Currently, the Senate has 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. 34 seats are up this year, of which 24 are GOP and 10 are Democratic. The math says…we need five.