JRN Resources

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

World Championships Men's Marathon Preview

by Brett Larner

Japanese men's marathoning bottomed out in 2009-2010, abruptly going from producing three 2:06 men, another eight 2:07 athletes, dozens of 2:08 runners and ten men a year sub-2:10 to only one 2:09 per year in 2009 and 2010, both in overseas races outside the domestic circuit. It's a mark of how little respect they receive internationally nowadays that the IAAF's official Daegu World Championships marathon preview doesn't even mention them despite the top two members of Japan's five-man squad having superior season best times to the two Moroccans the preview cites as potential "intensive" challengers.

Nevertheless, 2011 has seen things begin to turn around, with four relative newcomers going under 2:10 for the first time, the fastest of them, Yuki Kawauchi (Saitama Pref.) recording the first Japanese men's 2:08 since before the Beijing Olympics. There's a long way to go toward regaining some level of their former global competitiveness, but this year's World Championships mark an important checkpoint toward that end. Japanese men have won three individual medals in the twelve World Championships marathon to date and, with eight-deep prize money at stake, have had at least one runner in the top eight at the last six Worlds not to mention team medals virtually every time. For this year's young squad the goals will be to get as many as possible into the top eight and to compete for one of the team medals.

Kawauchi is the hardworking, self-training amateur with a full-time office job who picked up 2011 National Corporate Ekiden champion Team Toyota's star Yoshinori Oda and 2010 Hokkaido Marathon winner Cyrus Njui and broke them in half over his knee at 39 km on his way to a 2:08:37 at February's Tokyo Marathon. His inspiring performance shook the Japanese marathon establishment, won Kawauchi fans around the world and earned him the top place on the Daegu World Championships team. Although he freely admits that he is not a good hot-weather runner he has taken steps to improve in that area, steadily building up from a heat stroke-induced DNF in the last km of June's Okinoshima 50 km ultra to a 1:33:55 win at his final tuneup race, the Kushiro Shitsugen 30 km on July 31. In many ways Kawauchi is the embodiment of an ideal, the classic story of the underdog, the nobody who goes all the way; his stated goal of a top eight finish at Worlds would be triumph enough, but raised on countless Hollywood adaptations of this story it's hard not to imagine him on the podium. It's unrealistic. He's not going to fire the shot that blows up the Death Star. But what if he does it? If you're ever going to root for a Japanese runner, this is your guy.

Oda is the oldest runner on the Japanese team, the most talented, and the least experienced marathoner. Late last year he kicked off his training cycle for his marathon debut by breaking 28 minutes for 10000 m for the first time, then at February's Tokyo Marathon he ran a precision effort, clocking the 3rd-fastest Japanese debut with a 2:09:03. The quality of Oda's debut went all but unnoticed in the attention heaped on Kawauchi, but it was noteworthy for the focus and discipline with which he came to the race. Since then Oda has run well on the track, but his final tuneup did not go as planned as he barely broke 67 minutes in hot and humid conditions at July's Sapporo International Half Marathon. He should be a solid bet for a scoring position on the Japanese team, but his lack of marathon experience and his Sapporo performance raise questions.

Horibata had a promising 2:11:47 debut at age 21 at the 2008 Tokyo Marathon, but the following years saw a steady decline in his performances as he marked year bests of only 2:18:27 in 2009 and 2:26:55 in 2010. Something of a big, clumsy oaf by Japanese standards, he suffered falls or water station collisions in every marathon he ran. Coached by legendary 2:08 marathoner Takeshi Soh, Horibata found out he was running March's Lake Biwa Mainichi Marathon only a few weeks beforehand, but despite lack of conditioning and at least two more near-falls he came through with a big PB of 2:09:25 to make the Daegu team. Afterwards federation officials told him to lose weight before Worlds, calling him a "heavyweight division" runner. He has run 5000 m and 10000 m PBs since then, has been consistently performing far beyond where he was a year ago in the leadup to his dismal 2:26:55 in Hokkaido and looks fit and lean in recent training photos, so Horibata seems ready for a good run if he can handle the heat.

We're going to go out on a limb and say that Nakamoto, whose bio picture suggests a twee singer-songwriter more than an elite marathoner, may end up being the surprise star of the Japanese team. His credentials are not especially impressive, but look at the numbers more closely. He has PB'd steadily every year since debuting at the marathon in 2008, ran well in heat with a 2nd place finish at the 2008 Hokkaido Marathon, has PB'd at 5000 m and 10000 m since making the Daegu marathon team with a sub-2:10 PB at March's Lake Biwa Mainichi Marathon, and beat top-ranked Daegu teammates Kawauchi and Oda by a wide margin at last month's sweltering Sapporo International Half Marathon. A university teammate of 2010's Japanese year leader Arata Fujiwara (Remo System AC), Nakamoto appears focused and quietly confident in video interviews shot during his summer training. All of that adds up to good potential for a darkhorse breakthrough.

After a strong 2009 which saw him run under 63 for the half marathon at least three times, Kitaoka had a good debut at the 2010 Lake Biwa Mainichi Marathon to pick up a spot on the Japanese team at the Asian Games. He then disappeared from competition, surfacing only for a relatively weak tuneup effort at the Hakodate Half Marathon before the Asian Games marathon where he ran well, never out of the top three and running down defending gold medalist Mubarak Hassan Shami of Qatar in the final kilometer for silver. At this stage Kitaoka has not raced since January, a hamstring strain keeping him out of a planned run at May's Gifu Seiryu Half Marathon. With no media reports on his condition it's impossible to say how he stands coming into the World Championships, but the facts as they stand now suggest the prognosis is not good.

2 comments:

Nice previews Brett. From a glance at the IAAF link you provided, it looks like prize money for the marathon only runs out to 6th place for some reason, and at a much lower rate than the track events. I know a gal who trains here in the States that will be in Deagu who I figured would run a Fall major instead of Worlds because of the pay differential. There must be something more there, like consideration for an Olympic Team berth, or some such. Cheers.

Whoops, reading that again it looks like prize money does go eight-deep, it's the team prize money that only goes six-deep. So perhaps there's added incentive for a runner to compete in Korea over a major, which was what I had initially assumed and was confused by. Don't mind me, I'll get it all straight at some point.

The 1st Tokyo Marathon - 2/18/07

About Me

Born in Canada, grew up in the USA, and have lived in Japan since 1997. Ran XC at Mayo HS and Wesleyan Univ. Living in Shibuya next to Oda Field, Tokyo`s main public track.
I get a lot of requests for help with entering races in Japan. Please bear in mind before contacting me that most races close entry at least a month beforehand, often longer. Contact: larner (at) harriers.jp