Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week, I discuss some considerations about how the four teams are perceived, including factors like recency bias and the randomness of turnovers.

Tedd Ginn is hurt....Akers numbers are great but note that Tynes has an almost identical fg % number as he does...Lee is excellent but so is Weatherford. No big edge here...no more onsides kick surprises either.

It's pretty clear that Brian's narrative for this game, that the 49ers needed turnovers to win this game, was wrong. They played the Giants into the 8th minute of overtime without creating any turnovers. It took the opposite -- bad turnover luck -- for them to lose the game.

"...What I’m saying is, granting that the 49ers have been playing smartly on offense and have a better than average ability to create takeaways on defense, much of their record to date is simple luck. And if they happen not to win the roll of the turnover dice come Sunday, they’re probably not a good enough team to overcome their misfortune."

And the special teams were great. Every exchange of punts moved the 49ers further down the field. At the end of the game, when 3 points win it, the Giants were having to aim for a point 5 yard further up the field because their kicker wasn't as good.

Two fumbles by Kyle Williams -- that's not a thing to hang your hat on if you're deriding special teams.

@BBurkeESPN

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