Conference Power Rankings: Week 2

Regression to the Mean

What do you get when you have a game between two crappy conferences, one which comes into the game posting an 8-0 record and the top CPR among all conferences, and another that comes in as the only conference not to log a non-conference win over the opening weekend?

Yaaay, law of averages.

The Big East lost their clean sheet on Friday night, as Louisville fell to the mighty Golden Panthers of Florida International. To the Panthers' credit they have started the season 2-0, even though the Sun Belt had yet to win an interconference game. Their opening game was against conference foe, North Texas - the Texas team which is least likely to start talking about how pretty it is.

The last conference to post a perfect resume for 2011 fell only hours later. The Big 12 fought hard for their perfect record, with Arizona State needing overtime to beat Mizzou and break the streak of 11-0. This is not a big deal for the Big 12, though, as it is not like they're going to disintegrate the conference because of the loss...

Chartography

Week 2

SEC

8-0

1.000

Pac 12

6-2

0.953

Big 12

4-1

0.921

CUSA

3-3

0.454

ACC

6-2

0.419

Big 10

7-5

0.220

Mount

3-2

-0.000

Big East

4-4

-0.079

Sun Belt

4-4

-0.131

WAC

4-4

-0.183

Indy

1-3

-0.325

MAC

5-5

-0.406

Season

Conf.

Wk 1

Wk 2

Season

CPR

+ / -

Big 12

10-0

4-1

14-1

1.000

+1

SEC

10-2

8-0

18-2

0.908

+2

Big 10

10-2

7-5

17-7

0.366

-

Pac 12

8-4

6-2

14-6

0.311

+6

Big East

8-0

4-4

12-4

0.283

-4

CUSA

5-6

3-3

8-9

0.174

+2

Mount

4-2

3-2

7-4

0.143

-1

ACC

7-3

6-2

13-5

0.066

+1

Indy

2-2

1-3

3-5

-0.091

-4

MAC

8-5

5-5

13-10

-0.092

-3

Sun Belt

0-7

4-4

4-11

-0.273

-

WAC

1-6

4-4

5-10

-0.382

-

FCS

2-36

0-20

2-56

-0.890

-

From the Top

ACC
The red-headed stepchild of the BCS. The ACC comes in below both the MWC and CUSA in this weeks table. Talks of the ACC poaching from the Big East should cease, as the Big East actually looks like a stronger conference.

Big 10
What happens to your CPR when you go 7-5? Nothing, apparently. The B1G stays at number 3 even after developing a subpar record this week. I was tempted to give them +1,000,000 for Michigan's efforts, but that would skew my numbers a bit. Instead, the Big 10 stays at three and watches the top two conferences put some distance between themselves and the pack.

Big 12
Well, this is kinda akward. The Big 12 this year is like a boyfriend who saw the light a little too late. Yes, they are on their best behavior, but she's totally over you, Big 12. The B12 is leading our CPR at this point, but they're still going to come home at some point and find all their shit on the lawn.

Big East
The Big East took a nosedive this week, after leading the FBS in the CPR last week. They drop four spots to number 5 due to a 'meh' 4-4 effort which saw losses to teams such as Vanderbilt and FIU.

Conference USA
CUSA can lay claim to the title 'Best of the Rest'. Their 8-9 record is good enough as 11 of their 17 OOC games have been against BCS conferences. They have posted three wins in those games, with two more coming to other FBS schools.

MAC
Don't look now, but EMU is 2-0! Largely due to the Hart influence, no doubt. A heartbreaker in Columbus was very nearly the biggest win the MAC has seen in years. Northern Illinois also lost a close game to Kansas while CMU kept it close throughout most of their game against Kentucky, only to lose 27-13.

Mountain West
A lukewarm 3-2 record which included two wins against FCS schools saw the MWC drop a spot. Their lone win was a 3 point SDSU win over Army.

Pac 12
The Pac 12 rebounded nicely from a disasterous opening week to climb six points in the CPR. They did so with a 6-2 week that saw them become the only conference which has beaten the Big 12.

SEC
Undefeated. 8-0. The AFC Southwest. God's gift to ESPN. God's gift to God. The reason I couldn't watch the opening kickoff of the greatest game in the history of the word 'game'. The SEC shot up as the only potential challenger for the CPR crown. At this point, it appears to be a two horse race with the Big 12 narrowly beating the SEC.

Sun Belt
The Sun Belt didn't wait until Saturday to post their first win, with FIU beating Louisville on Friday night. The Sun Belt went 4-4 with wins over the MAC, CUSA, Mountain West, and an FCS school. For their part, the Sun Belt has beaten up the fewest cupcakes (sounds like innuendo?), having only played one FCS school.

WAC
The WAC has brought up the rear among FBS conferences for the second week in a row. That's what happens when you post a 5-10 record, with only two of those wins over other FBS schools.

Independent
Navy posted the only vistory this week as they rolled over Western Kentucky. BYU gave Texas a run, but came up short by a point. Notre Dame was apparently involved in some sort of 'night game' thing.

FCS
The FCS was picked on less this week, as they only played 20 games against FBS schools, compared to 36 the week before. They posted as many wins this week as Notre Dame.

1. Each week, I come up with a W/L record for each conference. This becomes a baseline stat in two ways, as a Win% and a Loss%.
2. If a team wins a game, they receive points equal to the opposing conferences' win percentage.
3. If a team loses a game, they receive negative points equal to the opposing conferences' loss percentage.
4. I add up all the games. Each conference receives points based on what each team did during a given week. I then divide by the number of out of conference games that a conference played.
5. Once the points are tallied, I divide each conferences' points by the highest conferences' point total, so that the highest conference receives a score of 1.00.

In example:

Michigan beat WMU week one. The MAC had a win percentage of 0.615, so Michigan gained 0.615 points for the Big Ten. The Big Ten had a LOSS percentage of 0.167. This means that the MAC received -0.167 points for losing to Michigan. Had they lost to a lesser conference, the loss percentage of that conference would have been higher, so the point hit would have been more substantial.

FCS wins are not counted towards a conferences' points. FCS losses, however, are counted, and are very damaging. The FCS loss percentage is 0.947, which would be about as negative as losing to the Big Ten five times.

There are a few flaws in this system. One, individual teams are not accounted for. USC beating Minnesota means as much as if they beat Ohio State. This ends up balancing out, for the most part, as a larger sample size typically evens out the playing field. Two, margin of victory is not factored. While Auburn barely escaped, it counts as if they won by 4 touchdowns. I may address this in the future, but for now, it is way too much effort.

Last week I doubted the depth of the SEC. I still have my doubts on whether it's more than a two-team-league (Bama and LSU), but I think it's safe to say that it's still in the top 2 conferences. Reason being that the 3rd best conference looks like a one-team-league - Wisconsin.

And I do think it's funny that what may be the strongest conference in the country is also on the verge of collapse.