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Monthly Archives: August 2014

Join us this week on the RedState Weekly Briefing as we discuss the growing threat of ISIS and the Democratic Governor of Colorado playing politics with the death penalty. As always we have Joe Cunningham, Caleb Howe, and Thomas LaDuke joining us, along with this week’s special guest, Kelly Maher.

In addition to a Milwaukee visit on Monday, President Barack Obama will return to Wisconsin before Nov. 4 to campaign for Democratic candidate for governor Mary Burke, a party spokesman said Thursday.

The announcement made to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came swiftly after Republicans criticized Burke for saying she couldn’t appear with Obama during his Labor Day visit to Milwaukee because it was an official stop, not a campaign event.

Burke’s campaign had strenuously objected to the GOP claims she was ducking the president because of his lackluster approval rating…

…because while it’s certainly true that the President has a lackluster approval rating, and that Mary Burke kind of hates the idea of being in the same photo frame as Barack Obama these days, well, Obama still does have supporters. And if Mary Burke insults their hero too much but being too honest about him, then Mary Burke is going to have even more electoral problems than she has right now. The dance is, as they say, delicate.

Here is my latest At-Risk races… and there are DOOM calls. Hey, it’s Labor Day Weekend. Time to start in on that.

Alaska

Mark Begich

High Risk

Arkansas

Mark Pryor

High Risk

Colorado

Mark Udall

Serious Risk

Iowa

Retiring

High Risk

Louisiana

Mary Landrieu

High Risk

Michigan

Retiring

Some Risk

Minnesota

Al Franken

Low Risk

Montana

Retiring

DOOM

New Hampshire

Jeanne Shaheen

Some Risk

New Mexico

Tom Udall

Off list

North Carolina

Kay Hagan

High Risk

Oregon

Jeff Merkley

Low Risk

South Dakota

Retiring

DOOM

Virginia

Mark Warner

Low Risk

West Virginia

Retiring

DOOM

In order:

Alaska: Mark Begich has one of the Dan Sullivan Collective running against him, and Begich barely won last time, and Barack Obama hates oil development. High Risk – and yes, I know about the current polling. Incumbents at 46% with Begich’s disadvantages should be grateful for a lack of DOOM.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor is behind in the aggregate polling and he’s stuck with a Democratic identity is a state that is trending less Democratic every year. High Risk.

Colorado: Mark Udall is far too close to Cory Gardner in the polls for Democrats to be comfortable here, and all of the polls are over a month old. Serious Risk, but wait a month: this is the most volatile ranking on this list.

Iowa: …Wow, Bruce Braley is a very bad candidate, huh? The way that he has pretty much thrown away what should have been a gimme lead makes this race High Risk, shading on DOOM.

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu’s major hope is that she gets above 50% in the first wave, because if there’s a runoff she’s toast. Louisiana has also been trending Republican ever since Hurricane Katrina and Democrats hate oil production. High Risk.

Michigan: I originally had this at ‘Serious Risk,’ but the polling is reasonably current and favors Gary Peters. But he’s below 50% and the election season is now starting in earnest. Some Risk.

Minnesota: Al Franken keeps polling above 50%, dagnabbit. The only reason why I’m not taking this race off of the list is because he won by such a horrible margin last time and the race can in fact still implode. Low Risk.

Montana. The existing candidate had to withdraw after a plagiarism scandal – and the Democrats then picked a Wobbly. That is not a euphemism. DOOM.

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen doesn’t have an official opponent, and there’s a single, most recent poll out that shows Scott Brown within striking distance, so let’s not collapse the state vector on this one quite yet. Some Risk.