UFC on FOX preview: As UFC reaches adulthood, all eyes on Velasquez-Dos Santos

LOS ANGELES – Eighteen is the age you send your kids to college, or tell them to quit being bums, get a job, and move out of the house. You’re supposed to be grown up. You can vote and smoke and join the military. It’s your life – time to go make something of yourself.

Eighteen years ago on Saturday, the Ultimate Fighting Championship came into the world as a competition to find out the most effective martial art in the world. In reality, its originators knew (or were pretty sure) they had the answer to that long-lingering question, and when Royce Gracie ran the table at UFC 1 using Brazilian jiu-jitsu, the gauntlet was laid down and a sport was born.

Now, the UFC is all grown up. It took the promotion 18 years and three owners to find its footprint in the major sporting world, and on Saturday, network television will take its first gamble with the octagon.

Velasquez mauled Brock Lesnar 13 months ago to win the title and is undefeated in nine professional outings. Dos Santos has but one professional setback in 14 fights and has beaten seven consecutive opponents since first setting foot in the octagon at UFC 90.

The conventional wisdom says that Velasquez, who has about a 60 percent chance of winning the fight according to a recent betting line, is the superior wrestler and ultimately has the ability to control where the fight goes. He’s sharp on his feet, dominant on the mat, and stays fresh in later rounds. Dos Santos, who has a 40 percent shot of winning the title, is a heavy-handed striker who only recently displayed a ground game and noticeably slowed in the process.

A few other scenarios to consider:

1. Velasquez slugs it out. The champ said Thursday that the reason Dos Santos is able to land the same punches on all his opponents is the defense he brings to the table. Perhaps Velasquez presses in with a jab and sets up a flurry of punches in the pocket or against the cage, and Dos Santos falls under the onslaught. Only those closest to Velasquez know whether he’s truly 100 percent after a yearlong layoff due to a torn rotator cuff, and the pushing and pulling inherent to grappling might have forced him to modify his game plan for Saturday. Then again, if Dos Santos is able to catch Velasquez, as Cheick Kongo did at UFC 99, he could pull off the upset if he’s able to capitalize quickly and get the wave-off from the referee.

2. Velasquez takes it to the mat. One of Velasquez’s most effective and devastating skills is his ability to control opponents from top position and grind them out. He’s really Jon Fitch (add 70 pounds) when it comes to ground and pound. Dos Santos has never faced a wrestler of his caliber, and he’s submitted just one opponent in his pro career. This is where takedown defense ups the intrigue of the matchup. It’s likely that the Brazilian has spent much of sharpening his ability to sprawl and stand up off the cage. If Dos Santos is able to stuff Cain’s takedown attempts, he has the best chance of getting the kind of fight he wants.

3. Dos Santos takes Velasquez down early and strikes late. That would pretty much throw Velasquez for a loop, wouldn’t it? It’s about the last thing everyone is expecting, and just as B.J. Penn shocked Fitch by getting a takedown early in their UFC 127 fight, an early trip to the mat might throw off Velasquez’s entire rhythm. While it’s unlikely Dos Santos will be able to hold Velasquez for long, he uncertainty would put it in the champ’s head, and that could pay off down the line in striking exchanges.

4. Dos Santos lands the punch, Velasquez dives for the takedown, and a stalemate ensues. Look at it this way: Dos Santos is training to stop what Velasquez does best, and vice versa. It’s very possible that if Velasquez takes a hard punch, he’s going to be diving for a takedown. That’s the safe and prudent option, and one Dos Santos has prepared for. In that case, it’s very well possible that the fight stagnates as Dos Santos drives toward his feet and Velasquez pulls him back down. In that scenario, Velasquez will still have the advantage since he’ll be racking up points with short punches and top control. Still, it won’t be the type of fight worthy of a spot next to Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar as one of the most compelling and important fights in UFC history.

These are but a few possibilities to look at when approaching the heavyweight clash. Whether or not the matchup delivers fireworks, all eyes will be on the ratings for the one-fight broadcast as a measure of the UFC’s existing popularity and room for growth. FOX has repeatedly declined to make any predictions or talk about expectations for the viewership it draws, but make no mistake about it: First impressions are everything. The new adult is about to find that out.

Henderson vs. Guida cues up the next contender

Until this afternoon, UFC on FOX’s co-main event between Ben Henderson (14-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC) and Clay Guida (29-11 MMA, 9-5 UFC) looked like one of those situations where the outcome looks all but certain, but is not a reality until UFC president Dana White announces it so.

Now, sources close to the event tell MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that the lightweight fight, which is the last bout to stream live on Facebook and FOXSports.com before the FOX-televised heavyweight title fight kicks off, is going to crown a No. 1 contender to meet current 155-pound titleholder Frankie Edgar at UFC 144 on Feb. 27 in Japan.

That adds yet another dimension to an already competitive fight. Henderson, a former WEC lightweight champ, burst into the octagon with wins over Mark Bocek and, most recently, Jim Miller. Before meeting Henderson, Miller was designated the next lightweight contender. But Henderson absolutely smashed the New Jersey native at UFC on Versus 5, and in doing so, skipped to the head of the line.

Guida currently enjoys the longest win streak of his UFC career at four fights. Long considered a durable fighter unable to break into the top of the division, “The Carpenter” has put away Shannon Gugerty, Rafael Dos Anjos, Takanori Gomi, and most recently, Anthony Pettis, who took the WEC belt from Henderson.

Henderson’s ground and pound was showcased in his win over Miller while Guida mostly controlled Pettis from top position. Both won on points, but it was Henderson’s performance that likely made him a solid favorite in the bout. Guida has been vulnerable to submissions in his career and faces a very slight height and reach disadvantage. But he stands the greatest chance of winning by pressuring Henderson on the feet and denying the takedown.

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