Birmingham City are most likely to be relegated this season, according to a complex computer model.

The model, designed by experts at the University of Reading, has given the Blues a 94 per cent chance of finishing in the bottom three.

Stoke are the favourites for the title though with a 45.5 per cent chance of being crowned champions in May.

The model predicts that Darren Moore’s West Brom side will get off to a winning start this weekend.

A two-nil victory over Bolton is seen as the most likely outcome of the game with a 17.6% chance of happening.

The model also predicts a one-nil away win for Derby County against Reading in the season opener tonight.

The most likely score in each game is calculated using a complex metric that analyses historic results for each team, as well as things like form, league position and even the day of the week the match is played.

This gives an estimated number of goals for both sides in any given fixture, allowing the most likely result and score to be given.

Using predicted scores for every round of fixtures throughout the 2018/19 season, they have also predicted the finishing positions for each of the 20 clubs in the Premier League and 24 in the Championship.

Read More

Dr James Reade, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Reading, said: “With just days to go before the new football season kicks off, fans up and down the country are excitedly wondering how their team will fare, and if this could be their year. This new model at least offers an early indication while we wait for the real action to start, and allows fans to start dreaming – or some fans anyway.”

His colleague, Dr Carl Singleton, added: “No prediction is ever 100% accurate, as there are so many uncertainties such as team selection or unexpected events during matches. This model was born out of curiosity over whether a computer could do a better job than fans like us, or experts in the media, at predicting scores. The signs are that it can.”