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Will the youth vote matter this year?

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With just a few days until the election, the 18- to 24-year-old demographic has the potential to make its most significant impact in the history of presidential elections. But how much young voters will be able to “rock the vote” remains uncertain.

Election excitement has greatly increased since the 2004 presidential election, said Bruce Vlk, deputy director of programs at the Center for Politics. Looking on Grounds, one can feel that energy, he said.

Progressive Future, a nonpartisan organization whose goal is to increase youth voter turnout, recently has stationed volunteers by the South Lawn and Alderman Library to convince students to vote. The organization, with its 75 on-Grounds volunteers, asks students to “pledge to vote” by signing a pledge saying that they promise to vote. Progressive Future has volunteers in 16 other college campuses in swing states across the nation, said Dave Ebner, a Progressive Future volunteer at the university.

Youth voting is a critical “untapped resource” that candidates are slowly beginning to recognize, Ebner said.

Progressive Future also hosts events such as its “All Night for Democracy,” during which volunteers will stay up 24 hours beginning Monday calling students and reminding them to vote, Ebner said.

“The youth vote should turn out record numbers,” Ebner said. “Voting is kind of like your first in. Hopefully, we’re building people that are activists in the future.”

Vlk said while he expects the young voter demographic turnout to increase, people should be wary of over-hyping and exaggerating the youth vote.

“A lot of cynicism still persists about the youth turnout,” he said.

But associate politics professor Paul Freedman said, “We expect that young people will make a big mark on the election.”

A recent poll conducted by CBS News, UWire and The Chronicle of Higher Education suggested that most students have not shown enthusiasm for political activities other than saying they plan to vote. The poll was conducted at 49 four-year colleges and universities in the battleground states of Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. About 51 percent of registered voters who were surveyed said they were paying “a lot” of attention to the presidential campaign, in contrast to the 65 percent of all adult registered voters who said they were following the presidential campaign closely in the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll. About 34 percent said they had displayed a campaign sign or worn campaign-related clothing or a button, though fewer than 13 percent had volunteered for a campaign.

Whether they choose to vote or volunteer, young voters are part of the reason that Virginia has gained its swing-state status this year, Politics graduate student Drew Kurlowski said.

Kurlowski, who studied youth voting in 2004, found that youth voting did not significantly impact the 2004 election. In 2004, voters between the ages of 18 and 24 had the lowest turnout of any age group. Not only did their low turnout affect their minimal impact, but they were closely split between John Kerry and George W. Bush, Kurlowski said.

Readers' Comments (2)

No the youth vote won't matter this year - again. Every 4 years we hear about the youth vote and 'rock the vote.' and every time the youth vote is always low. Past behavior is best predictor of future performance. No rocking the vote this year.

I think for the first time in our lifetimes the youth of America is ACTUALLY engaged. A record number of youth voters have registered this year and I don't see many reasons this will not translate into tremendously high voter turnouts.