3 Numbers That Show Jacky Rosen, and Dems’ Senate Hopes, Are in Trouble

Democrats need to defeat Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) for a good chance at retaking control of the Senate. Heller's on the rise, and his Democratic opponent is struggling.

By NTK Staff | 10.11.2018 @11:15am

“There’s no way around it: If Democrats want to cut into the Republican Senate majority in 2018, they need to defeat Nevada Sen. Dean Heller.”

That was the take from Vox, a liberal outlet, in June 2018, back when Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) was struggling in his contest with Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) for the Nevada U.S. Senate seat.

Fast forward to October 2018, and Heller is on the rise, while his opponent Rosen is increasingly fighting an uphill battle.

Here are three numbers that tell the story of the Nevada U.S. Senate race in mid-October:

2 points: that’s how far Rosen is down on Heller (45-47) in a new New York Timespoll of the race; Rosen is, however, within the margin of error here

-7: far more concerning for Rosen in the Timespoll is her net favorability: 36 percent of Nevada voters favor her, and 43 percent gave her an “unfavorable” rating; that’s five points worse than Heller’s net favorability of -2

+33: that’s the net favorability of Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV), the eighth-most popular governor in the nation according to Morning Consult; Sandoval gave Heller his endorsement this month, even though Sandoval has declined to back Republican candidates in Nevada’s gubernatorial or attorney general contests

These three numbers and more suggest the race is trending in Heller’s direction. If Republicans can get Heller reelected and top Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) in North Dakota, then Democrats would need to successfully defend all of their seats – and pick up Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona – to retake the majority. That’s an unlikely scenario, even in the most favorable of environments for Democrats.