Chuck Chiang: Japan’s search for historic parallels angers China

Chuck Chiang, Vancouver Sun Columnist02.10.2014

Ships of China Marine Surveillance and Japan Coast Guard steam side-by-side near disputed islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, in the East China Sea. The unresolved dispute over the islands is a powder keg which could easily explode.
/ AP

In the foreground, Minamikojima, middle right, Kitakojima, and background Uotsuri, the islands disputed by Japan and China.
/ AP

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The growing antagonism between China and Japan remains the most worrying geopolitical issue in the region and there is a lot of speculation about what will happen next.

A valuable source, published a couple of weeks ago, is Joseph Caron’s essay, The Abe Dilemmas, published by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (available at bit.ly/1gUFtbt). It is an elegant and thorough look at the Japanese side of the equation by Caron, who has been Canadian ambassador to both Tokyo and Beijing.

Caron describes a delicate situation for Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe. As a nationalist but also a realist, he has to balance the restoration of Japan’s economy and national pride with his neighbours’ bitter memories of Japan’s military expansionist past.

Meanwhile, Japan is increasingly linked economically to China (according to Caron, China accounts for 18 per cent of Japan’s exports and 21 per cent of its imports) and other Asian partners. For Abe, that means a juggling act — aiming for the maximum economic benefit domestically, while minimizing international angst.

The situation on the Chinese side is no less delicate.

The recent verbal crossfire between Tokyo and Beijing has centred around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. But despite the possibility of offshore natural resources deposits that may benefit whoever controls the islands, the real significance of Diaoyu/Senkaku is symbolic not practical.

How strong is the symbolic nature of the islands to China?

According to Business Insider journalist Henry Blodget, an “influential Chinese professional” spoke at a private dinner at the World Economic Forum is Switzerland last month, and said the islands dispute has to be viewed in the context of Abe’s visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which indicates just how deep the animosity for Japan is among many Chinese people.

For this particular person in Blodget’s story, the symbolism of the islands in the Sino-Japanese dispute is so strong that he suggested China can send a small group of soldiers to the islands in what the journalist describe as a “surgical strike,” just to prove a point.

Of course, that’s only one person’s view (and an extremely radical one, at that). But it shows the depth of the continuing anger in China (and Korea, its neighbour) for Japan’s actions in the first half of the 20th century up to the end of the Second World War.

It indicates the emotions that Beijing authorities have to deal with when it comes to Japan: Chinese public anger continues to affect China’s public discourse, and Beijing cannot appear weak in the face of domestic emotions and pressures.

And as I have said before, the more emotion enters the discussion, the less likely there will be a logical, peaceful outcome.

Abe, also at the World Economic Forum, raised eyebrows by comparing the situation in East Asia now to that of Great Britain and Germany just before the outbreak of the First World War. Abe’s inference, although his spokesman denies such an interpretation, is that war is possible if the situation is left unresolved.

Of course, Abe’s comparison to the situation in 1914 Europe angered Beijing. A spokesman responded that Tokyo needed to “face up to what Japan did to China before the war and in recent history” and also address why it is considering amending its pacifist constitution.

Part of Abe’s choice of the UK-Germany example is rooted in the fact that those two nations had a rich economic relationship in the years before the First World War. For Germany, trade was worth 38 per cent of GNP, according to a study by University of California-San Diego professor Paul A. Papayoanou. For Great Britain, it was 52 per cent. Much of that trade was with each other; yet it did not prevent war from breaking out.

Despite that bit of history, many in modern times have taken the position that a military conflict in East Asia is unlikely due to the strong economic links between China and Japan.

While that wasn’t the case with Germany and Britain, China and Japan’s economic ties could play an important role this time in helping to avoid a confrontation.

To me, a more important factor is both Beijing and Tokyo’s “position of strength” status.

Many people have suggested a solution might lie in emulating the relationship between France and Germany.

The Elysee Treaty of 1963 was a blueprint for cultural, political and social exchanges that help eliminate much of the mutual hatred stemming from the 1800s.

Of course, the treaty and related statements were from when both had a common opponent, the Soviet Union. And it was a time when war had left Europe in economic and structural tatters.

Co-operation is always more likely when the parties are willing to be amenable, usually when both have a certain degree of weakness or vulnerability.

It is almost impossible to imagine Tokyo and Beijing, as things currently stand, coming together to compile a collectively recognized set of historical facts.

Neither Beijing nor Tokyo view themselves as being in such a position of strength that they do not need to back down.

China is the poster child of Asia’s economic and influence boom in the last two decades, and it is seeking to flex its muscles to regain the central regional power status that it relinquished in the China-Japan war of 1894.

Japan is surging again under Abenomics as the prime minister looks to re-establish a dominant role Japan has not had in the Asia-Pacific for decades. It is also leveraging the support of the U.S. in the Diaoyu/Senkaku island dispute.

Neither side views themselves as dealing from a position of weakness.

Of course, situations can change.

As Caron suggested in his essay, most Japanese still oppose amending their country’s pacifist constitution. And Abe’s broad-base of support has more to do with his economic policies than his nationalistic aims.

Meanwhile, China is transitioning to a sustainable economic model as economic growth inevitably slows. Such transitions can be painful and make officials less willing to risk a confrontation of any sort.

So far, both have made it clear they want to avoid armed conflict. But that hasn’t deterred them from showing off their military strength.

Thus the situation remains a powder keg — one that can ignite and escalate very quickly.

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The genesis of this column was a question asked by a reader who was talking to my parents at a Chinese New Year party. It reminded me that I owe my readers my thanks for their continued support. Please email me with questions or topics you’d like to see me write about.

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