Ah, that's right you are still late '42. Even with 3 x radar .. .well they only have like 30% detection odds .. so you can do the math, plenty of opportunity for them NOT to pickup a raid. I think the Ta-Chi upgrades in early '43 and that will help detection %.

The British didn’t try another attack east of Akyab. The Guards division is now reinforced with tanks. I should have about 1400 AV there in a few days, and I doubt the British have enough time to reinforce or retreat. This also means the smaller stack that retreated into the jungle might not make it home. We will know by mid-November, but defeating both those stacks would probably make holding Akyab a gloomy prospect for the Allies.

Little happened today in lower Burma, skirmishes between his P40-K and my Oscars, mostly. In upper Burma, two divisions are moving north, from Warazup, towards the Ledo Valley. I don’t want to fight in Ledo, but I’d love to cut the roads and railroads to Ledo and Imphal.

My opponent has spotted the move and sent bombers (Vengeance from Ledo) to slow my advance. They flew unescorted and found Zeroes from Myitkina on their way.

The combat report says two planes lost, but Tracker and the VP chart, say 8…A small victory, but a victory.

November 11th 1942

Close call

KB, retiring to Truk, was found by an enemy submarine, which missed, fortunately. One interesting feature of this report is that my opponent only saw one carrier, even though there are five in the task force.

Oscars IIb are in production since the beginning of this month, and with 230 factories at work, I have several squadrons in operation. One of them is in Mandalay, and swept Imphal, where my opponent parks his Hurricanes. With decent pilots, Oscar IIa had a good chance against Hurricanes IIc, but the IIb has armor, better speed and climb, and good enough maneuver.

2 things to note: 1. Yes, the allied DE's are really deadly to IJ subs, and as they arrive the utility of IJ SS drops severely. This is the point in the war where I no longer build SS, except maybe a couple of Glen boats. A decent allied player is going to have DE's on patrol everywhere of concern to him and he gets enough of them to do just that ...

2. Combat reports aren't the same for both sides in PBEM ... see Rev Rick's post here: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3356364&mpage=1 A lot of players make this assumption based upon their AI games where there is only one combat report (the AI one you never see, who knows what Andy AI is seeing ).

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo 2. Combat reports aren't the same for both sides in PBEM ... see Rev Rick's post here: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3356364&mpage=1 A lot of players make this assumption based upon their AI games where there is only one combat report (the AI one you never see, who knows what Andy AI is seeing ).

Is this true? I've been sending my combat report together with the replay to my opponent since the beginning of the war. I sort of remember he asked that to prevent the sync' bug which sometimes happen.

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo 2. Combat reports aren't the same for both sides in PBEM ... see Rev Rick's post here: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3356364&mpage=1 A lot of players make this assumption based upon their AI games where there is only one combat report (the AI one you never see, who knows what Andy AI is seeing ).

Is this true? I've been sending my combat report together with the replay to my opponent since the beginning of the war. I sort of remember he asked that to prevent the sync' bug which sometimes happen.

Francois

Yes, its true they are different. Especially naval battles. I wouldn't want my opponents seeing those unless they sent me theirs as well. You might ask for all of his if there are any things you're curious about. Things like ships sunk will appear on his where they might not on yours.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

No. The combat report is the same for both sides, unless there is a sync bug active that turn.

Even when there is no sync bug happening, the combat report can be different than the replay/animation.

I'm fairly sure the combat report for each player CAN be different when there is action that could be seen differently by each side. For instance, if a ship is hit there is often a discrepancy in the number of hits shown by each report, or the confirmation of sinking, which of course happens in one's own report but may not in the other report.

This is supported by the report listed above by Rev Rick. Have a look. You may simply be operating with this assumption because it hasn't happened in your experience, but how often do you see your opponent's reports?

I remember checking this once ages ago with Dan Nichols in our PBEM and we each had a report that varied in similar circumstances.

< Message edited by obvert -- 7/1/2013 9:27:40 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

Music for today is Mozart violin sonata K301, sight read last week-end with my violinist friend. Well, in fact, she sight read. I had spent most of the weekend trying to learn those faster bits that are supposed to sound oh so natural. This is how evil empires collapse. Instead of giving meaningful orders to their troops on the ground, emperors and their ministers play Mozart sonatas… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDUFbd4LuKs

November 12th 1942

Burmese tracks

The battle for the road to Akyab is raging, sort of. We achieve 1:2 odds with little casualties on both sides. I have changed my leaders, the enemy is unsupplied, but it won’t do. I will attack again in a few days. I’m in no hurry but it is a slow road.

Meanwhile, the enemy seems to be evacuating Akyab. I don’t know whether my opponent intends to leave, or just retreat troops along the coast and fortify it, and hold Akyab with the troops now on the road. I believe he will try to keep Akyab, for a while. It is a level four port and a level six airfield, and would be a very good supply hub and forward airbase.

But in reality, I very much doubt Akyab can hold. Four more infantry divisions are on their way, and my artillery from China is closing on Lashio, ready to be railed into Burma…

Air losses

Losses today were 9 allied planes to 3 ours. Yesterday was 3:13, the day before 3:11. My opponent has not visited Rabaul since the seventh, when he lost a score of bombers, and so most of the action is happening over Burma, where my Oscar II and Tojo IIa are giving his Hurricanes IIc and P40-K a hard time.

Oscar IIb production is ramping up nicely. I am converting and buying Nate squadrons now, and retiring Oscar I squadrons from the front lines, to turn them into training outfits. Next month we get the Tojo IIb, and more squadrons that can convert to it.

Very little is happening today. In Burma, my troops are moving. During the night Wellingtons Ic bombed Magwe. They scores one runway hit, and two bombers were shot down. I am fine with such operations.

In the morning, Mitchells from Chittagong attacked my troops on the road to Akyab. I had fighters sweeping, and fighter on long range CAP, but none seemed in position to intercept enemy bombers. This is something I noticed with long range CAP: whereas is usually does a good job protecting one’s ships, it seems less effective when one caps troops. Or is it because of the range? (I’m too far away to cover the target effectively?).

After many months procrastinating, I think I had a good idea of my plans for 1943. So, as little is happening today anyway, here is a brief presentation.

The Continent

I have little to do in China but defend, fortify, and garrison. I’m keeping strong forces in Chengtu and Chungking to prevent the enemy from dropping paras. I am also building forts everywhere.

In Burma, reinforcements from China are arriving and the invasion will begin in earnest. I want to progress along the coast, to Calcutta, and threaten India. The main purpose of the invasion of India is to force my opponent to reinforce and defend, and therefore reduce his commitment to the Pacific, and delay his moves against my bases. As the enemy holds Port Blair, the coast of South Burma is my weakpoint, and a determined attack against Tavoy or Mergui might be very dangerous.

The Indies

With the economy going fine, and oil and fuel reserves very high, I am not really worried about my opponent targeting Java or Sumatra oilfields. I fact, I think I’d welcome such an axis of reconquest. Being large islands, both Java and Sumatra are very defensible, and can probably be turned into long and ugly grinds.

In fact, I am more worried by an action against Koepang, and the small islands between it and Java. By taking those, and working through the Celebes into the Philippines, my opponent could make my situation very difficult, as the northern part of the Celebes and then Mindanao and the Philippine islands offer a good position to move into Southern China.

I am currently preparing a line of defense between Ambon and Macassar.

South Pacific

I have begun evacuating the Solomons. My goal is to fall back very slowly along the northern coast of New Guinea. There is nothing valuable there, but the many bases and the jungle, can make enemy progression very slow.

Central Pacific

Same here, delay is the name of the game. The Gilberts, and Marshalls are all expandables, my main line is in the Marianas.

Kuriles

I am fortifying those. This is probably the shortest path to reconquest for Japan. I don’t think it can succeed against a good defense, though.

The final perimeter

My goal for 1944 is to hold all the Philippines, Borneo, the Marianas, and the continent up to the borders of China and Thailand. Ideally, I would like to hold this perimeter until autumn 44.

We’re in a lull. I am fighting over Burma, moving troops to dispute the border with India, but little is happening elsewhere.

November 14th 1942

At night, enemy Hudson III visited Taberfane. They have been doing this for a while, for very little effect. I am trying to long range CAP the base, but my fighters don’t seem to be able to intercept the bombers. So, I suppose it just ends up with both of us using supplies.

Enemy submarines still roam free in the Celebes. Today SS KXVIII torpedoed and sank Meigen Maru, a cargo resupplying Timoeka. I probably need a few more ASW squadrons in Macassar and around.

Over new Guinea, my opponent is bombing Salamaua and Wau. Thanks to the jungle, lots of B17 and B25 hardly do more than an dozen disablements per turn. No bombers appeared over Rabaul since the bad day they had a few weeks ago.

South of Japan, SS Haddo torpedoed and sank Clyde Maru, ferrying a small AF unit to Okinawa. Other ships in the task force rescued some of the troops, but this is not fun. I use more shipping than I need, when transporting troops, but I should use more still, to reduce losses to subs.

Buffs from Port Moresby visited Manus, for a change, and found two ships in the harbor I had forgotten about. Two bombers were reported shot down. This isn’t worth the ship loss, but it is a compensation.

Precious nothing to report today, apart a few more Hurricanes swept away from Imphal. It seems that the road to Akyab was reinforced today. In retrospect, it is good that we attacked yesterday. I will bombard tomorrow, to probe those new units.

November 19th 1942

Akyab

The 13th Indian Brigade just arrived, raising enemy AV in the hex by about a third.

For a while, small cargoes were detected off the northern coast of Australia. My opponent is probably supplying Darwin by sea. I am dispatching several surface groups to try and intercept them.

A carrier division, now in Surabaya, is on its way too. This serves another purpose: KB main force is in Truk, but has been inactive for a while. By showing carrier planes around Australia, I hope that my opponent will move in the South Pacific… in reach of KB.

The focus was on Burma today. Oscars and Hurricanes traded punches over Chittagong, which looks like the place to sweep these days. I’m quite happy with the Oscar II models. Against Hurricanes IIc, the IIa stands his own, and the IIb inflicts good damage.

On the road to Akyab, we attacked again, inconclusively again. The enemy is slowly yielding, and reinforcements are on their way. Prospects look good.

Since the beginning of the game, Allied submarines tend to get lucky at times. They are not the major nuisance they apparently were during the real war, but they account for most of my current ship losses, as the enemy navy is nowhere to be seen.

Off the coast of northern Australia, a surface task force managed to intercept a small cargo task for, resupplying Darwin I believe. I have more ships in the area, and my be lucky tomorrow or the day after.

I understand there is nothing to call home about, but if this could make my opponent prudent, and slow his buildup in Darwin, that would be perfect. And if he decides to visit with a few battleships, I have carriers in the area…

Over Akyab, we had a strange battle today. We have two stacks one hex away, and today we apparently both decided to bomb one and CAP the other, but chose different solutions…

As a result, over the first hex, escorted Sallies were found by Hurricanes, and we lost a dozen planes.

Morning Air attack on 23rd Indian Division, at 56,46 , near Akyab Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Yet another almost empty turn. My opponent bombed Salamaua and Gasmata, for little effect and my sweeps over Burma failed to find the enemy.

The current situation is interesting. After a series of successful conquests in the South Pacific in August and September (Buna, Terapo, Merauke and Ndeni), my opponent seems to have given up. I believe he is prepping for a large offensive at the end of the year. Or is he reinforcing India? So far, I have seen regular build up in the Aleutians, but attacking the Kuriles so early, and in winter, looks like a losing proposition. A month ago, some movement was detected south of the Gilbert, but this seems to have ceased, too. And then, there were regular bombardments of Shortlands and Saumlaki, which provide two more vectors of attack, but then, if he wanted to move against Shortlands, he could have done it earlier.

My hunch is that my opponent is testing the waters, and bidding his time. I might be in for a nasty surprise, of course, as I have no idea of the strength the Allies can muster in the end of 1942, but I’m still under the impression my opponent is waiting until 1943.

I am a bit surprised by his slow reaction. Did the loss of ships during his invasions of Terapo and Ndeni, or the loss of China, make him prudent? Anyway, à cheval donné on ne regarde point les dents, as we say here in Japan, when we speak French, and I am welcoming this prudent approach to reconquest. Thinking about it, I believe I want to use the time to build my second line of defense. I my opponent is careful, there is little point working too much on the periphery, where he will probably land with a spare kitchen sink. On the other hand, I can probably use the respite to build up the rear, and give him a bad surprise later in 43.

No. The combat report is the same for both sides, unless there is a sync bug active that turn.

Even when there is no sync bug happening, the combat report can be different than the replay/animation.

I'm fairly sure the combat report for each player CAN be different when there is action that could be seen differently by each side. For instance, if a ship is hit there is often a discrepancy in the number of hits shown by each report, or the confirmation of sinking, which of course happens in one's own report but may not in the other report.

This is supported by the report listed above by Rev Rick. Have a look. You may simply be operating with this assumption because it hasn't happened in your experience, but how often do you see your opponent's reports?

I remember checking this once ages ago with Dan Nichols in our PBEM and we each had a report that varied in similar circumstances.

I think there should be separate combat reports, but according to what devs said in the past, there are not. Has that changed? Is the example Rick shows an example of a bug? Dunno.

I'm enjoying your AAR immensely Francois. Not posting much these days, but still following along whenever you update. I think your decision to get your second line of defence ready is prudent. It takes so long to fortify with Japan that you almost have to start from day one in rear areas.

As to your opponents advance or lack of. It could just be a bit overwhelming where to focus for him. In my PBEM as the Allies I was simply shell shocked by my opponent and couldn't see an opening anywhere. Any offensive move I made was countered, or simply outgunned by better trained Japanese air and naval units. Completely frustrating. So I licked my wounds, built up aircraft pools and moved behind the scenes to get logistics in place and essentially did nothing for months on end.

Your opponent may be doing the same for different reasons and as you said simply probing until a major push. By the end of 42 the Green Machine gets rolling and by early 43 new ships and aircraft are arriving daily. If he doesn't push soon, I think it's safe to say you will see things pick up quickly on his end in early 43.

I’m glad you enjoy this replay. With the new game and a lot of work, I lack the time to update these days, but I will do my best to keep it up, and a return to a slightly more narrative style…

November 25th 1942

Thin air

In Burma, we attacked the jungle hex where units defeated on the road to Akyab a month ago had retreated, and found nothing. Apparently, most of those units had made their way back to the road, leaving a depleted artillery unit.

This means the road hex next to Akyab was reinforced. I have 1000 AV there, two guards divisions at half strength and assorted tanks, but also have three infantry divisions from China arriving tomorrow. Those are highly experienced, and things should become interesting.

Payback

The Allies had a bad day over Rabaul today. Over the last few weeks, I have been replacing Zeroes with army fighters, and now have 175 fighters, half of them Nicks, the rest spilt between Zeroes 3a and Oscars IIa.

So, today, the allies came in force and bombed the airfield. Twin engine bombers (B25-C) launched a series of night attacks against the port. Despite being on very short notice, my CAP (I use A6M2) managed to disrupt them, at a relatively high cost of four zeroes for one Mitchell.

Six Nicks were destroyed on the ground, and two A6M3a shot down, but thirteen B17 (10 B17E and 3 B17-F) were shot down in return. Damage to the installations was minimal.

So it seems that army fighters do make a difference against those ugly unescorted 4E. I have Tojos, Oscars IIb and Tonys on the way that I want to try the next time the Allies pay a visit, but this should definitely calm Allied ambitions in the area.

November 26th 1942

Burma Rising

Kalemyo has now been reinforced, I have four divisions and two brigades there. A first attack today reduced the forts, which had reached level four.

Losses are not very important, but supply is low as it moves over the jungle (whereas my opponent benefits from the road). This will be a long fight, and the 3:1 odds might not be enough.

November 27th 1942

Bombers over Kunming

A squadron of B24-D bombed Kunming this morning. Judging by their approach vector, they came from Dacca. They didn’t do any damage, but I am moving an Oscar IIb squadron to discourage further attemps.

Burma rising (2)

After Kalemyo yesterday, we attacked the stack near Akyab today. The situation is reversed. In Kalemyo, my supplies move over the jungle, and the enemy has a road back to his depots. Here, I sit on a road, and he moves through the jungle.

Much to my surprise, the B17 and B25 came back today and targeted the port, where I had barges and a few ships undergoing repairs. The night attacks were ineffective, but the morning raid did hit the harbor, and cost the Allies three more B17.

We attacked again in Kalemyo (actually, I forgot to put units to “defend”, and since we had achieved 1:1 odds yesterday, my units went on attacking). The odds were bad, due to lack of supplies, but we did quite a bit of damage (and took another level of forts)

A calm day. A bombardment in Kalemyo revealed 580 Allied AV, down from 780 a few days ago. Over Chittagong, we shot down a handful of Hurricanes. The Tojo IIb advanced R&D to December 42, just in time.

I am getting quite a few new planes tomorrow. The D4Y1 Judy is available, but it will take a while before I can use it as no factory upgrades to it. The first squadrons will fly at the end of the year.

I am also getting Sally IIb and Tojo IIb, with a lot of factories (45 and 88) ready to upgrade, and lots of squadrons that can use them.

Finally, I am getting the Nick KAIb, which I will not produce (only one squadron uses it, and the KAIc is available in January), and the Dinah KAI which I will produce in small numbers, to keep the special attack squadron filled. You can’t have enough of those 4E killers.

I have a short windows of opportunity now, as my opponent will only start producing Corsairs in January, and a lot of Hellcats in April.

Music for today is this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNdL39MQdsY Just started learning it, but unfortunately it seems my violinist is moving out of town pretty soon. The music partner hunting season will open soon again, I’m afraid…December 1st 1942

The month began well, and I believe my opponent is pretty mad at me… but this is the point of being enemies, no?

Nach Akyab

After several weeks of a long and protracted fight (as they say in cheap war novels), the road hex next to Akyab was cleared. The opponent stack had been reduced over time, and my troops were reinforced.

230 combat squads, 50 guns, and 200 vehicles destroyed. Those units must be in sore shape now. They have retreated into Akyab, which I suspect they will abandon. I am marching in, but once the base is empty, I am planning to use paras to take it. Akyab is a level four port and a level six airfield. I don’t think the allies can defend it now, and it will constitute a very good forward base for the move along the coast.

My opponent is unhappy. He considers supply should have prevented me to attack Akyab. I am not sure I agree. Supply flowed very slowly into Burma (from Thailand), and this explains why six low experience units could hold for a month half a dozen divisions with tanks, some of them very experienced. But Spence is a very nice person, and the game will continue.

Meet the Oscars

As expected, B-24D came back to bomb Kunming, and met the squadron of Oscar IIb that had been deployed there. Seven Liberators were shot down, and three Oscars were lost. This should make my opponent prudent in China.

The war in November

We are in a fairly static part of the war. My opponent is not attacking in the Pacific, we are stalled in Burma. But November was a good month on two accounts.

First, we managed to defeat enemy bombers over Rabaul on several occasions. Nicks and Oscars seem to make a difference, and I am looking forward to the Tojo IIb I am getting this month. I still need a lot of planes to achieve something, and therefore I am not yet ready to mount an air defense of New Guinea, where I lack aviation support, but this is a good start.

Second, it seems that the door to India is now open. Akyab will most certainly be captured soon. Kalemyo might hold for a while, but several divisions are now marching to cut their supply lines. Once this is done, I think my opponent will have no other option but retreat.

None of those are great victories, but I believe this gains time for Japan. With India under attack, my opponent will need to divert troops, which will delay the reconquest.

VP-wise, we are 41862:14547, a 2:78 to 1 ratio. We’re far from auto-victory, but it is stable, and should go up is we progress into India. Out of those 41 900 points, only 16 500 are for bases, which means if have more than 25 000 “permanent” victory points.

The economy is fine, I am still saving a lot of HI, and supply flows nicely now that China is captures. China produces quite a bit of supplies.

Congrats on that battle near Akyab. Looks like you trashed some good units. Are they Commenwealth/British? Might be out for a while if so.

Your Oscars performed about like the real ones did in that area when B-24s came in small numbers unescorted. That's cool and I haven't had the opportunity to see that since Jocke only uses 4E by the 100s.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

I’m on holidays tonight, for ten days. I hadn’t plan to take any, but I haven’t taken a day off since last years, and autumn will be hell at work (lots of very big prospect on a new piece of software, and I’m the only dev, and the boss, and…), so I’m grabbing all the rest I can find now. Silly world, where so many people are unemployed, so many kids get diplomas, but still it is so difficult to hire decent people.

December 2nd 1942

Akyab

@Erik, the troops defeated yesterday were the 254th armoured brigade, the 5th and 16th British brigades, the 3rd carabiniers regiment, and the 13th and 23rd Indian brigades, half British, half Indian. Victory points went up 135 LCU points yesterday, which should correspond to 400 squads or devices. If half of those were british, that’s several months of replacements.

There are several british brigades in Kalemyo too. I have the impression my opponent has concentrated a lot of good troops over a pretty long front (Akyab to Ledo). If I can break through, India will be in danger and he will need to reinforce with US troops (which is the purpose of all this).

Those units seem to be headed north now, and so the evacuation of Akyab seems confirmed. This is very nice, as such a large base should help with the supply flow into India.

More bombers

Today was another bad day for enemy bombers. In Burma, our Tojos shot down five B-25C, two fighters were lost.

In New Guinea, my opponent raided Hansa bay, but I had fighters there, 27 A6M2, 12 A6M5 and 12 Oscar IIb. B17-F operated at long range, and outflew their escort. Even against Zeroes, they had a very bad day.

Which translated into 13 B17-F lost, for five zeroes. Then P38-G swept, and three were shot down for as many zeroes and Oscars. Overall, the Allies lost 22 planes, half of them four engine bombers, and we lost a dozen fighters. That’s over 30 B17-F lost, vs 48 produced, and as we’re in PDU Off, once those squadrons have no planes left, they become useless until the next upgrade, which should be in September 1943.

I might live to regret this sentence, but the air war seems to be going very well at the moment. Our new army planes work fine, we had lots of pilots, and the allies are short on replacements. Here’s hoping it lasts…

ORIGINAL: fcharton I might live to regret this sentence, but the air war seems to be going very well at the moment. Our new army planes work fine, we had lots of pilots, and the allies are short on replacements. Here’s hoping it lasts…

I might live to regret this sentence, but the air war seems to be going very well at the moment. Our new army planes work fine, we had lots of pilots, and the allies are short on replacements. Here’s hoping it lasts…

Have to be careful Francois. In my PDU off game it was around February 43 that the wheels came off and my JAAF was shredded in two days over Burma. It just takes one or two bad days to change the entire complexion of the air war in a theatre. The low numbers of Tojo and Tony fighters you can mass will not be enough to counter the qualitative edge the Allies will soon have. Then again, I suffered from extremely poor AI commitment of my fighters that led to a slaughter. You seem to have a much better handle on things then I did under PDU off.

I do realize the balance will turn at some point in 1943. Jocke, I have checked the P47 in PDU Off, the Allies have 10 squadrons that can upgrade, and five more that arrive (with planes) in 1943. They are “only” producing 56 planes a month until March 44, after which is it the next model, and 175 planes a month, and life will be very hard indeed.

Joseph, I believe I can keep an edge until next summer. In fact, it will all depend upon the size of his fighter pools. I believe he has worn them, in Burma at least. I need to make those calculations.

December 3rd 1942

Sweeping back

As expected, enemy fighters appeared over Hansa Bay, to avenge their lost bombers. My defenders had been reinforced with a squadron of A6M3a, and fought well. The enemy lost ten P-38F, for fin A6M3a, two A6M2, one A6M5 and one Oscar IIb. At this rate, I am happy to trade. The allies have lost more than 70 P38-F, out of a total of 92 produced and available. Right now, his main fighter plane is the P40-K, which has so far been very unimpressive.

Kalemyo now

After our victory in Ayab, we attacked again in Kalemyo. Forts managed to rebuild to level two, I don’t think this can be helped given the time I need to wait for supplies to arrive. But it is getting better: we achieved one to one odds, and destroyed a dozen combat squads.

One division is marching in the jungle to cut the road back to Imphal. Once this is done, enemy supplies should have more difficulty flowing, and the situation should improve.

Here’s a map of our positions. The perimeter has not changed since the fall of Chungking and the capture of Merauke by the Allies, in September. We hold all of China and Burma, the DEI, the Solomons and the northern Gilberts. The Allies have Port Blair, which is isolated, and are developing the southern tip of New Guinea. I am slowly evacuating the Solomons, which are on their way to getting cut off.

Have a look at this, which gives a bit more of an idea what you'll be facing. However, some units don't arrive completely filled and the 175 a month for the P-47D25 is only for 4 months. Still 700 (+ up to 75 more from arriving groups) is quite a lot of P-47s, but not inexhaustible.

This is pretty much the analysis I want to carry out, including the big bombers (4E), and perhaps the carrier bombers, in the analysis, and taking restricted squadrons in account, as we're in PDU off, and this should reduce the number for some frames (B-17 notably)

Basically, the idea is to get a month by month account of what

1- you get in the pools 2- you have in restricted quadrons 3- you have in unrestricted or buyable squadrons, to see what my opponent can commit, and what he can replace

I haven't run through all the details, but my impression is that there are two sides to the (PDU off) analysis, the number of good squadrons he has (PDU off limits this), and the production rate, which determines the size of the pools.

The former will limit the area where he can fight, whereas the latter constrains the intensity of the battle (the losses he can withstand). And of course, this all depends upon my production rate, which I can probably increase given the pretty good shape of the economy (I have over 2 million HI in the bank, and 5.5 million tons of supplies right now). It also depends upon the expected loss ratio, which is a factor of the difference in frame and pilot quality.

In the end, you probably can derive a production rate for the Allies (including production and nr of squadrons), and one for the Japanese (which mostly depends on production, as I have bought many squdrons). You also need to estimate a loss ratio, which depends upon the quality of frames produced, right now, I'm probably around 1:1 (a little better in fact, I'd say 11:10), but this will eventually go down. The goal is to keep the production ratio (of good frames) higher than the loss ratio as long as I can.

I do realize the balance will turn at some point in 1943. Jocke, I have checked the P47 in PDU Off, the Allies have 10 squadrons that can upgrade, and five more that arrive (with planes) in 1943. They are “only” producing 56 planes a month until March 44, after which is it the next model, and 175 planes a month, and life will be very hard indeed.

Thats a very interesting number! I just counted I and I have only 13 P47 groups on map. So I´m basically 2 squadrons less the historical. I could probably convert two more but that would stretch the pools. It has to last until 11/44 when the P51D kicks in.

Perhaps after that I can finally relax and stop worrying about the pools. (Probably not!)

Very little worth reporting. Our troops are still marching on Akyab, which is being evacuated. We are trading Oscars for Hurricanes over Cox Bazar. I am producing 236 Oscars and he is getting 36 Hurricanes per month. I am all for exchanging.

Beaufighters VIc have appeared over Burma, they are not doing a lot of damage, but those seem to be tough planes, difficult to destroy.

On the sixth, B17 raided Hansa Bay by night, and succeeded in destroying a good number of zeroes. Am I the only one having the impression that whereas the lack of moonlight tends to prevent planes from reaching their destination, it has very little effect on their accuracy?

December 7th 1942

We are one year into the war. To commemorate that, my opponent was successful bombing ships repairing in Kavieng. The very long range and the ugly weather didn’t help.

Some people learn from their mistake. I have a tendency to repeat them. Since a few days, the two squadrons of Sallies that were based in Magwe, and which I used to bomb Kalemyo have retired, to make room for the Topsies that will drop paras on Akyab. Ground bombing in jungle bases is not very efficient anyway. And since those Sallies were away, there was no need for escort, right?

Well, there was that other squadron, based in Lashio, which sometimes flew in support of the Sallies. And it flew today, and there were Hurricanes on the other end of the trip, and it was unfair.

Reported losses are 21: no plane made it back. And this is the second time this happens to that very squadron…

The rest of the front was calm. Akyab is now empty of troops. Raids over New Guinea failed to do damage. Kirakira is now evacuated, save one SNLF company to keep my opponent honest. The evacuation of the Solomons will begin soon.

December 9th 1942

Payback

Enemy Hurricanes came again over Kalemyo, and found my “chasse”. We had the same numbers of planes, but it was the second day for the Hurries, and the first one for the Oscars, and the enemy lost eight fighters for one Oscar.

Tracker reports 219 Hurricanes IIb lost, out of 226 produced or brought as reinforcements, and 175 Hurricanes IIc out of 273. The P40-K which my opponent used several weeks ago have disappeared, and I have fresh Oscar IIb squadrons ready to join the battle.

Later that day, Beaufighters came over Kalemyo, and we shot down our first two. The British are only producing twelve a month, and so I don’t believe I will see those very often.

More importantly, B24-D came in over Prome. They have been changing base every day, usually hitting empty runways. Today, there were Oscars.

Nine Liberators were shot down, for just two Japanese fighters. I believe they were operating at long range, and fatigue might have been high, since they flew several days in a row. That’s 36 Liberators accounted for, out of a little more than 100 produced so far, and nine out of fifteen planes built this month.

Overall, we lost four planes to twenty enemies. Yesterday’s fateful raid over Kalemyo is avenged.

In Burma, we attacked Kalemyo again, but were less lucky than the last time. Only achieved 1:2 odds and destroyed a handful of squads. The road to Imphal is now cut by and IJA division, so the situation might degrade fast.

Supplying Japan

The supply situation of the Home Island is mixed. My resource convoys from Fusan work well, and with the war over in China, I don’t need to export supplies (and resupply the pacific from Manchuria and China). Over the last month, the resource stocks have gone up by 700 000 tons, to almost five millions, and supplies went up by 200 000 tons, to almost a million tons.

Oil and fuel are more critical. Right now, everything seems to pile in Port Arthur and Singapore, and the Home Islands are losing 6 000 tons of fuel and 8 000 of oil every day, despite convoys. I am trying to organize convoys from Fusan, and see whether this will cause the port to draw from Port Arthur or Singapore.

December 11th 1942

An enemy task force was detected in the reefs west of Kirakira, sailing east. This might be an invasion force. Submarines were sent on its possible path, and KB was dispatched and will be in the area in a few days. Kirakira is mostly evacuated, but Lunga and Tulagi are not, and badly lack supplies, as enemy submarines and planes have taken a heavy toll on my convoys.

It is about time the Solomons are evacuated, with the Allies developing Milne Bay and the islands around, they have little strategic value, and there is no need to lose good troops there.

This said, I am curious about where this task force is headed. I had expected my opponent to cut Guadalcanal off and go for Shortlands and Munda, now that he developed Rossel Island. As for Shortlands, he has been bombing the base for a while, I’m moving my Rufes there tomorrow, see if I can catch a few bombers.

Near Burma, Beauforts from Port Blair tried to attack the battleships on their way back from Cox Bazar. Two bomb hits translated into 2 system damage. I will CAP the task force tomorrow, maybe we can get a few bombers there too.