Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks

Game

APR

SRS

Line

Cardinals @Seahawks

Cardinalsρ=1.9018

Cardinalsδ=42.8

Cardinals-3½

Ravens @Rams

Ravensρ=1.5412

Ravens*δ=28.1

Ravens-3½

Lions @Vikings

Lionsρ=1.4449

Lionsδ=15.2

Lions-3½

Packers @Bears

Packersρ=1.3509

Packers*δ=15.4

Packers-3½

Dolphins @Browns

Brownsρ=1.3421

Dolphinsδ=1.0

Browns-2½

Steelers @Colts

Steelersρ=1.2495

Steelers*δ=10.6

Steelers-11

Texans @Saints

Saintsρ=1.1588

Texans*δ=3.5

Saints-4

Jets @Raiders

Jetsρ=1.1534

Jetsδ=25.5

Jets-3½

49ers @Bengals

Bengalsρ=1.1158

49ersδ=3.9

Bengals-2½

Patriots @Bills

Billsρ=1.0832

Patriotsδ=10.1

Patriots-9

Giants @Eagles

Eaglesρ=1.0759

Giantsδ=1.1

Eagles-7

Chiefs @Chargers

Chargersρ=1.0737

Chargersδ=34.1

Chargers-15

Jaguars @Panthers

Jaguars*ρ=1.0716

Panthersδ=6.5

Panthers-3½

Broncos @Titans

Broncosρ=1.0346

Titansδ=5.1

Titans-7

Redskins @Cowboys

Cowboysρ=1.0326

Redskinsδ=0.6

Cowboys-5

Falcons @Buccaneers

Buccaneersρ=1.0026

Buccaneersδ=11.4

Buccaneers-1½

Comments:

Like the Ravens, the Bears have had 7½ months to stew
over a late-round playoff loss to a division rival. Unlike the
Ravens, the Bears have the added sting of a home loss, and the
knowledge that a loss this week will put them a long ways back
from the division lead. This will be a hard-fought game.

I wonder how much NBC wants a do-over for the two early-season
Colts games they picked for Sunday Night Football.

The 49ers have won just 4
non-division road games since 2002. This week's game at the
Bengals is probably the 49ers best chance to add to that total
this year, and an early sign as to whether the Cardinals will
have a challenger for the NFC West this year.

Bucs -1½ is line-speak for "we have no idea how this
game is going to go". Last year, the Falcons swept the Bucs, but
both games were close. The Falcons seemed to have dropped off
from last year, so yeah, this could be a game that turns on the
outcome of one play, one bounce of the ball.

Can the Chiefs even come close to holding the Chargers to a 15
point margin of victory? They haven't shown much ability to slow
down or keep up with their opponents so far. I don't see any
reason that will be different this week.

Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are favored to win for the first
time. Especially after the way the Jaguars got blown out by the
Jets, this feels like another "give the points" game.

I should say, by way of disclaimer, that my record of picking
games against the line is horrible, and if you actually bet money
on a game, you must do so on your own responsibility.