Good evening, folks. We are tracking some light snow across the region, on the leading edge of arctic air pushing in here tonight. This is just the beginning of a stretch of bitterly cold temps taking up residence in our region through the state of the new year.

Let’s begin with the light snow action working across the northern half of the state. We set you up for this a few days ago, and it can put down some light accumulations. We will need to keep a close eye on roads in the north, as they could briefly become fluff covered.

Here are your tracking toys…

Hamburg Area from WKYT StudioLexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/AirportNear Covington

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk PikeNear Covington

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.Covington

US 60 @ US 127Frankfort

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & BroadwayLouisville

Temps tank tonight with single digits showing up across the north, with low and middle teens elsewhere. Wind chill temps go below zero at times in some areas.

Highs Wednesday stay in the teens in the north with low and middle 20s south. Gusty winds make it feel even colder. Lows by Thursday morning drop back into the upper single digits and low teens.

From there, the forecast gets a lot colder, but how we get there is the issue. Snow is likely to fall this weekend, but I’m still not ready to commit to how it comes at us, or how much may fall.

The European Model continues to say we get an arctic front with a wave of low pressure along it Friday night and Saturday…

That blows up into a major storm across the northeast.

The GFS continues to show a different setup and it starts with a system before that one. The GFS has a little better system showing up Thursday night and early Friday…

The model then is MUCH weaker with the system diving in Friday night and Saturday, producing a swath of light snow across our region…

It still develops another system working in from the southwest for New Year’s Eve and Day…

That setup could be a healthy snow maker for us.

The JMA is actually on the side of the GFS this go around, and actually has a much more threatening look…

With our Christmas snow, it was siding with the European Model.

Several of the individual members of the GFS Ensembles are supportive of that idea…

Not too sure we should be concerned with snow pack cold factors. Most of us had unperformed results even with the two previous “snow” systems forecast by the models. Christmas eve was mainly flurries and some trace snow in the nooks of sidewalks in Richmond. I do prefer flurries to the road closed & power challenged blizzard in the PA area, so all good here 🙂 If we are going to be single digits, they might be going winter 78 & 03 level cold temps. Yikes.

So far the models have been not One with the snow Force. They kind of need to pan out before instilling some tangible trace of model confidence.

I have really been disappointed with the snow aspect of the month of December. I really had a feeling it was going to be full of more fun and games as far as snow goes. I’m afraid with Chris’s winter forecast, that an early start to spring doesn’t give many weeks between now and that early start for winter to show itself in the snow department around here. Especially if we get that January thaw I keep seeing everyone mention on Twitter.

I just want one or two decent snows! Is that too much to ask Mother Nature?????

Should the schizophrenic GFS be on to something with a New Years snow, that would be great…if not, no big deal since that’s what I expect. After that I’m going into full warm up mode early. Give me sunshine and warmth any day over this garbage snowless freezing cold weather. Jokes aside, I really am hoping for that January thaw.

CB’s words on 56 for the weekend snow chance were: “a little snow”. That does not appear to fit the “storm” criteria, so folks expecting more than that would be setting up an even higher position for a let down. Key is cold air.

Folks wanting a big event need to head north or north east. Frankly I prefer a little snow over a big snow with super frigid air. The company I work with has teams that work/service that area and they are NOT having fun, plus about to get worse due to temperature.

If it’s going to be super cold with no snow, then Rodger’s hoping it warms up. The Christmas Eve flakes were nice, but it seems anything over a major dusting is never in the cards. Bah humbug! This is Rodger in Dodger

I guess the next question is how low will it go..lol..Hate this pattern..Maybe in a couple of weeks something shifts and a pattern change for the better (Warmer air yippeeee)..This certainly ain’t getting it done

Please let’s keep blog positive. I believe there will be at least one big snow. I think it’s fine to express disappointment if a storm doesn’t pan out, but no need to write off winter. I think most of us love snow, so let’s just agree the big storm will come at some point. I totally understand the upset over dry cold and warm wet. We have a good twelve weeks for snow. Stay warm and check on anyone you know who may not have adequate sources to stay warm.

Chris never predicted a major snow event, but he did predict the Arctic cold just like in 2013 his analog year. He was absolutely correct and I think he will be right for an early warm up in February 2018.