Tuesday, December 5, 2017

There was a great deal of speculation back in June about whether the election resulting in a hung parliament - albeit, crucially, one in which the Conservatives and DUP held a majority between them - made a hard Brexit significantly less likely. The theory was that Labour would wield much more influence, and that even the DUP would help steer the government towards a softer Brexit because of their pragmatic desire for a 'frictionless frontier' with the Republic. Well, the latter point is now looking distinctly ropey, because the one and only reason a hard Irish border even remains a possibility today is because the DUP vetoed the deal yesterday. It's still the case that the DUP would probably sign up quite happily to a soft Brexit as long as there were explicit guarantees that the degree of 'softness' would be uniform throughout the UK, and that Northern Ireland wouldn't end up in a 'one country, two systems' scenario. But any such guarantees would trigger a mass Tory rebellion and quite possibly bring the government down.

The trouble with trying to bounce people into an agreement they wouldn't ordinarily sign up to is that you have to move so fast that they don't know what's hit them until it's too late. The gambit almost worked yesterday, but a miss is as good as a mile, and Theresa May's game has now been well and truly rumbled. Having taken such open satisfaction in foiling Dublin's plans, the DUP will presumably only be able to get back on board if the Irish government are seen to publicly back down on points of substance, and that's surely very unlikely. Meanwhile, Tory Eurosceptics are now wise to May's willingness to concede a soft Brexit if that's the only way of squaring the Northern Ireland circle, and they'll move over the coming days to close that option off. Where else is there to go?

Right at this moment, it does appear that the loss of the Tory majority has - against all expectations - created a dynamic that makes a hard Brexit more likely, not less so.

Much of politics is about perceptions and postures and the people of Ireland, both sides of the border and both 'traditions', have a more nuanced appreciation of that than most of the rest of us.

The DUP are not idiots and would certainly not be 'bounced into something before they knew what had hit them'. They know the score. They will also make their points agains 'perfidious Albion' and causing a pause in the negotiations is part of that.

The DUP are also aware that 55% of the NI population voted remain and that many, including many DUP members and supporters have taken dual citizenship. It is in their interest both economically and socially to squeeze more out of Westminster, but also to seek to maintain the open border trade.

Undoubtedly, the Conservatives failure to win a majority is significant, but what you, James, are positing is but one possible outcome.

I think it would be useful to turn your outstanding psephological abilities to analysing demographic and political trends in the whole of Ireland. Keep up the good work. I appreciate it.

"The DUP are not idiots and would certainly not be 'bounced into something before they knew what had hit them'."

On any reasonable reading they were perilously close to that yesterday. At a very late stage Jeffrey Donaldson seemed to be saying there was no problem. One way or another, they got caught napping. Foster made her intervention in the absolute nick of time.

Theresa May is many things but I seriously doubt that she was daft enough not to have made her plans known to DUP before making her move so what is going on..? Are DUP trying to squeeze more funding for NI out of Westminster so that Arlene can cement her position?

I think, although this process in general seems completely mental. Yesterday before midday it was going round Irish then British media that it seemed the Tories would accept a customs union agreement for NI and then we found out at tea time it was not on the cards. I honestly don't know if May is that stupid, naive or ignorant to have not spoken with the DUP before hand? I wouldn't be surprised at any of those.

Anyway you shape it up, there is trouble for May and her British government

all of the UK inside CU - Brexiteers won't be happy including many in her Tory party who are ministers! That would mean freedom of movement and a currency union. Also, would make taking up EU laws - if EFTA was agreed.

No deal - a disaster. And would be very bad for the UK in both the short and long run.

No matter what decions she makes she'll be under pressure from every section of her party, opposition and public opinion.

Old cynic me, this phone call business looks a bit stage-managed.The Perfidious Albion I recognise would have threatened Northern Ireland with economic perdition for daring to interrupt such a summit meeting, gives credence to the DUP and yet, Perfidious Albion feels able to exclude Scotland, the partner to the Treaty of Union from negotiations.

An unstoppable force is meeting an immovable object. I think the best thing the U.K. govt can do at the moment is to leave the EU (honouring the referendum result) but staying inside the single market & customs union (also having the benefit of keeping Scotland & London govts happy). Then, after Brexit, think about how to start our own trade relations without the clock ticking and everyone holding each other to ransom during an arbitrary period - possibly when there’s a majority govt. This U.K. govt is trying hard but the DUP need to bring it down if they can’t make the U.K. govt agree to a U.K. wide position.

I doubt the British were going to sell out NI for a deal. The EU should not be in the game of interferring in sovereign borders.A trade deal could easily be done and the joint UK Irish joint border dealt with. The EU need not be involved in what is a local issue

The Irish are playing along with the EU power game, sad if it all collapses.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1201/924399-brexit-deadline-uk/In it it say s---------------------------One big suspicion in Dublin (and Brussels) circles is that London is deliberately trying to isolate the Irish issue from the other two.

This is being done, suggest some officials, by putting forward an irresistible offer on the financial settlement and citizens’ rights, thus putting unbearable pressure on Leo Varadkar to go along with a less than robust deal on the border.

Is it possible that the events on Monday were part of a “cunning plan” to do as described above – isolate the Irish issue? Since the deadline was set, it could be expected that the EU would go one of two ways. They could have accepted the holdover of the Irish Border issue – a victory for May - or they could have announced that not enough progress had been made – which would have justified May going the no-deal route. In that case the DUP would have been in on the plan. Given the timing of the fatal phone call, I think that is a distinct possibility.

There is an article in Der Spiegel which commented on Junckers unusual demeanour at the post luncheon press conference. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-lunch-jean-claude-juncker-und-theresa-may-verpassen-einigung-a-1181716.html

If Juncker knew or suspected that this had been a set-up, I think he would have been rightfully very angry, and it does not bode well for future negotiations.

The British Irish border Issue has clearly been devised by the Irish and EU to stall moving the talks forward. They are holding the British to ransom. Juncker always did have an antipathy towards the British.The British Irish border can be resolved locally. The British should make a reasonable practical proposal to the Irish and if not accepted we pull out of talks and prepare for the future by trading in WTO rules.

Nothing seemingly stopping your commentary diarrhoea for sure. You should be a away and having a handy shandy at how cool you are with your comments....or alternatively get out and get a job like the rest of us.

Despite all the rhetoric surrounding England's desire to part company with mainland Europe(trade deals,control of immigration,independence from European courts etc etc) it is all coming down to identity.The DUP in Ireland are determined to maintain the position that they are not Irish but belong to a fictional nation/country/political union known as Britain.....anything but Irish.We Scots are having a shotgun put to our heads by the English establishment that we can no longer have Scots,British and European identities.British as an identity died yesterday when May and her Brexiteers decided to throw British Unionism in NI under a bus as a worthwhile price to pay in order to ensure the prosperity of SE England.Immunity from Brexit is now available on the NHS,Scottish only that is.

Silly longwinded Nat si English hater. And hater of the NI loyalist community. You are not a Scot. A Scot would not sell out Scotland to an EU German led beaurocracy. You are a traitor. Now go and repent and dae awa wie yerself nat si.

It's a Sad day when 10 Knuckle Dragging Sash wearing Pavement dodging gits can hold the rest of us to ransom If only we had GWC2 running things eh! At least it would put us all to sleep and we wouldn't know about it, man it can bore us all to death ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

What a fud you are why don't you name yourself instead of hiding like a wee lassie behind that inane GWC what does it mean be a man and come out of hiding are you really Kezia or by the crap you come out with Wee Ruthie? come on grow a pair you really are a boring Abortion of a thing!