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Likely Opponent Emerges For Connecticut Governor

After nearly a year, the race between two Connecticut Democrats to oppose Gov. John G. Rowland this November has reached a critical turn, with one candidate poised to capture the nomination, political analysts and party leaders say.

William E. Curry Jr., a former state senator, comptroller and aide to President Bill Clinton, has opened a commanding lead over his rival, George C. Jepsen, the State Senate majority leader, in the crucial battle to win delegates for the Democratic nominating convention in July, those leaders and analysts say.

As Mr. Curry claims to have a majority of delegates, party leaders have begun coaxing Mr. Jepsen away from his promise to take his bid for governor, if necessary, to a divisive primary.

John W. Olsen, the state Democratic Party chairman, acknowledged in an interview today that Mr. Curry was beginning to pull away from Mr. Jepsen in the delegate race, and that he and other Democratic officials would do everything in their power to avoid a primary.

''Curry is showing some strength,'' said Mr. Olsen, who is also the president of the Connecticut A.F.L.-C.I.O. ''There's been more labor endorsements for Curry. There's an appearance that Curry has some momentum going for him.''

Top party officials said that a primary in September, only two months before the general election, would all but kill the winner's chances of defeating Mr. Rowland, a popular two-term Republican who is unopposed in his party and expected to raise about $6 million for a third term.

Though it is still too early to declare either Democrat the nominee, Mr. Olsen said, ''I need now to sit down and talk with George and talk about where his campaign is going.''

Mr. Jepsen, 47, of Stamford, said that he remained confident of his chances and that he would not take himself out of the running, even if that meant challenging Mr. Curry in a primary.

In an interview today, Mr. Jepsen said he had more than 500 delegates supporting him statewide -- out of 778 needed to win a majority -- and had thus far raised $120,000 more than Mr. Curry. Each of them, however, has roughly $250,000 cash on hand, according to April filings, the most recent.

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But with no experience running a statewide race and relatively feeble name recognition among voters, Mr. Jepsen, lagging in the delegate race, is no longer considered to have a good chance of beating Mr. Curry at the state convention or in a primary, political analysts said.

''It's hard to imagine, without some kind of major event happening that changes the environment, that Curry doesn't win,'' said Ken Dautrich, a professor of political science at the University of Connecticut.

Mr. Olsen and John DeStefano Jr., the influential Democratic mayor of New Haven, said they and other party officials were concerned that any primary battle would all but extinguish any chance the winner has of beating Mr. Rowland.

There are reasons for the party's recent tilt toward Mr. Curry, 50, of Farmington, who lost the 1994 governor's race to Mr. Rowland by three percentage points. He is a far more experienced campaigner -- having run four campaigns, including one for Congress -- than Mr. Jepsen, who has never run for office outside his State Senate district in Fairfield County. Voters recognize Mr. Curry's name more than they do Mr. Jepsen's.

Today, a Quinnipiac University poll of 309 registered Democratic voters queried this month showed Mr. Curry leading Mr. Jepsen 40 percent to 18 percent, though 38 percent were undecided. The margin of error was 5.6 percentage points. Among 887 registered voters queried, neither Democrat came within 25 percentage points of Mr. Rowland. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Though not a prolific fund-raiser -- he still owes about $10,000 from the 1994 governor's race -- Mr. Curry is considered the more aggressive of the two Democrats, willing to engage Mr. Rowland in a political brawl if necessary. Indeed, many Democrats believe the only way to beat Mr. Rowland is to bombard him with criticism over his handling of recent scandals, including last year's failed deal between the Enron Corporation and a state trash agency in which taxpayers lost $194.5 million.

''For aggressiveness and turning up the temperature, it's Curry,'' said Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Conn., although Mr. Jepsen, a moderate Democrat from the state's most populous region, might be the more electable of the two.