Although Chávez got a majority of the seats, he did not achieve the two-thirds super majority needed to pass special enabling legislation “to appoint and remove, at will, the justices of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the Comptroller, the Prosecutor General, and the Ombudsman.”

Opposition leaders celebrated at the coalition’s headquarters in Caracas, where they hugged and kissed each other amid smiling supporters.

In the western state of Zulia, where the opposition won 12 of the 15 posts up for grabs, Gov. Pablo Perez attributed the opposition’s gains to the coalition’s decision to field a single candidate for each of the 165 seats being contested.

It was not quite the knockout win Chávez sought, but better than he should have done in view of the widespread problems of crime, food shortage, inflation, and corruption, as well as water and electricity problems. The reported results are not extremely far off from those projected (69 MUD seats, 96 PSUV seats) on September 19 by Daniel Duquenal, a blogger in Venezuela, based to some extent on a “rosy scenario.” On September 23, he wrote a very sad article on what seemed likely to happen, noting that:

[Since] February 2009 I have slowly but surely come to grasp that the real problem is that Venezuelans are not democrats and in fact probably never were, except maybe briefly, for a few weeks at most, sometime after the Revolución de Octubre. And they probably never acted as democrats except during the regime of Medina and perhaps up to a point under the presidency of Leoni and the first weeks of the Caldera first term. All the rest of our independent history, that is roughly 96.37%, we have been looking for the Cacique [Big Chief] who will tell us what to do to make out like a bandit.

Notwithstanding the high turnout, some who oppose Chávez may not have bothered to vote — they knew the fix was in and could see no point in risking governmental retribution. Some nominal Chávez supporters may also have abstained. Calling Venezuela a democracy no more makes it one than calling a donkey an elephant changes its appearance or behavior.

Were otherwise apathetic folks stimulated by fear, Chávez’s largess, or otherwise to vote for the PSUV? As noted here, goodies promoted by Chávez/PSUV have included: the “Good Life” credit card, allowing consumers to buy food and other items including electronic household goods in state-run stores; a program for distributing cars operating on natural gas and carrying a guarantee of free maintenance; supermarkets previously taken over by the state offering subsidized food; and the sale of imported electronic devices at below-market prices. Chávez has not been shy about it. A recent broadcast from the presidential palace:

Looked like a 1950s TV commercial: an avuncular man in a shiny kitchen explaining to a housewife the wonders of a new fridge. “Feel the lines on it. Nice, eh? And wait till I tell you about the discount.”

…

In the mock kitchen Chávez, 56, a TV natural, flirted with the housewife, commended the Chinese ambassador, who hovered nearby, and addressed viewers directly as he patted the fridge. Capitalist rip-off merchants were cheating the people, he said, but socialism would fix that. “The Chávez price isn’t even $450, no … It’s $341!” An off-screen audience broke into applause and cheers.

Chávez didn’t say this, but perhaps should have:

It chops, minces, slices and dices with just a tap. Get the Chávez Quick Chop now! Just $1.00 per month for [garble] months with your Good Life credit card! There’s even a free lottery ticket, with the grand prize: a breast enhancement! Buy now and you may be the next Miss Venezuela!

The breast enhancement idea would not be new, as one candidate had already held such a lottery.

Chavez relies on bribing the workers far more than brute force. In this respect, Venezuela under Chavez resembles China far more than, say, Cuba or the Soviet Union. This has the downside for the regime of being dependent on said workers’ continued support. If the oil industry collapses due to incompetence, so does the regime, for they can’t survive without the revenue from it. The workers will riot, and the regime will collapse for want of resources.

I don’t understand the 2/3rds remark, Chavez has the 2/3rds he needs to enact special enabling legislation. Chavez may have only 95 (96, 97?) of the 165 seats but since we can expect that within 2 months at least 30 of the opposition seats will be unoccupied due to various reasons ( I’ll bet combination of indictment and inability to make it to legislature ) Chavez should be able to get the 2/3rds he needs. All that he needs is the easy ruling by the Supreme Court that the 2/3rds requirement applies only to the seating members of the legislature. If that doesn’t work somehow, the Supreme Court will simply rule that for purposes of the a simple majority is a 2/3rds majority for purposes of special enabling legislation. Why do you think Chavez has put so much effort into ensuring the integrity of the Supreme Court?

You may be right; most anything can happen in Venezuela and usually does. That said, there will be lots of Venezuelans royally upset if what you suggest happens, and they get to vote for or against Chavez in 2012, assuming that the elections actually go forward. A noted in the article, “insanity is more useful as an excuse for whatever happens than as valid predictor of the future.” And, while Chavez may be barking mad, it’s probably useful to keep in mind that that does not necessarily mean that he is terminally stupid.

Chávez has announced plans to spend one billion dollars to construct “at least 25,000 homes” in the Caracas area. Disregarding the “at least,” that comes to $40,000 per home, a perhaps small amount in the United States but probably significantly more than is needed in Venezuela for what would be considered adequate housing. Significantly less would be needed in Pánama to make it happen – probably less than $10,000 per house.

Chavez said that he conceived the project to build at least 25,000 houses in the capital after the deaths of at least 14 people over the past week, after their rickety dwellings collapsed due to heavy rains that have drenched Caracas.

Last Friday, the president admitted that one of the “debts” his government owes to the country after his 11 years in office is “the gigantic” problem of the housing deficit.

Venezuela is facing a deficit of about 2 million housing units, and the Venezuelan Construction Chamber says that the country needs to construct some 200,000 units annually to overcome the situation.

Was this a reaction to Sunday’s election results? Most likely. It is also likely that a significant portion of the one billion dollars would be skimmed off the top by various government officials. Did the problem only recently come to Chavez’s attention?” Unlikely. This seems to be one step toward making the folks happy and, consistently with past promises, unlikely to go much beyond the talking it up stage. As noted in the linked article,

The president, over the past four years, has appointed about eight ministers in the housing area in a so-far-failed attempt to reduce the housing deficit.

Mr. Miller, this was a great read. My wife is from Venezuela, and her family is slowly heading North…Just a quick question: You write: “Chávez’s decreasing impact internationally may continue regardless of the election outcome. It has had little if anything to do with his electoral legitimacy (he need only remain in power, and in many respects he has) and has depended on turning Venezuelan funds into hard currency and spending it externally.”
What exactly do you mean by “he need only…he has.” Thanks.

Thanks, Paul. I intended the sentences to mean that Chavez’ international stature has depended largely on his use of Venezuelan funds converted into hard currency and little if at all on whether his power to spend them has been obtained and held democratically. His international stature seems to be declining because the Venezuelan economy is in the toilet and will likely remain there until it goes into the septic tank. Hence, although he remains in power because he retains substantial control over the government, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to spread resources it does not have around internationally. Although China is to a large extent bailing out Venezuela (remind you of any other country?), there are domestic pressures to use even some of those funds domestically to enhance Chavez’ declining popular support; hence, the plan to spend $1,000,000,000 on new houses for the poor noted in Comment #7. That money will, apparently, be taken from the twenty billion recently promised by China and, if the plan goes forward, the funds will not be available for use internationally.

Hugo decides to go out one day and see what it’s really like for the workers, so he puts on a disguise and sneaks out of the gold domed Capital building in Caracas. After a while he wanders into a cinema. When the film has finished, the Anthem plays and a huge picture of Hugo appears on the screen. Everyone stands up and begins singing, except Hugo, who smugly remains seated. A minute later a man behind him leans forwards and whispers in his ear: “Listen Comrade, we all feel exactly the same way you do, but trust me, it’s a lot safer if you just stand up.”

Following the September 25 election, el President Chávez is feeling his oats. On October 3, he announced

the expropriation of land owned by the Venezuelan agricultural company Agroislena and [promised] to hasten the nationalization of land held by the British meat products company Vestey Foods Group.

He also vowed

to move forward on the nationalization of land owned by a subsidiary of British meat products company Vestey, as he called for “acceleration of the agrarian revolution.”

A week after opposition parties were emboldened by a strong showing in legislative elections, Chavez used his first television program since the vote to announce moves to strengthen his self-styled revolutionary government.

“All of the lands of the so-called Compania Inglesa will be nationalized now,” Chavez said, referring to the subsidiary of Britain’s international food giant Vestey.

“I don’t want to waste another day,” he added.

He also

rejected the idea of seeking to mend relations with private enterprise, announcing the nationalization of 250,000 hectares (618,000 acres) this month and saying, “There will be no deal with the bourgeoisie.”

that members of the country’s civilian militia should be issued weapons to be on patrol at all times.

The Bolivarian Militia is a force of volunteers ranging from students to retirees formed in recent years by Chavez, who says it is a crucial component of the nation’s defenses.
Until now, members of the militia have regularly trained at weekend boot camps, but their guns have usually been locked away in military depots when not in use.

“Who has seen a militia without weapons?” Chavez said during his Sunday television and radio program. He said he was surprised when he met some militiamen standing guard recently and learned they had no guns.

“The militias are the people with weapons in hand,” Chavez told an audience including military officers and high-ranking officials in rural Guarico state.