Monday, June 10, 2013

Six jurors to decide Zimmerman's fate

I wasn't paying close enough attention, evidently, to pre-trial news out of Florida. Buit it seems that only six jurors will hear the second-degree murder case against George Zimmerman, not the canonical 12, which would seem to me to increase the odds of a conviction (unanimity being harder to get the more people you have on a jury). Of course I have no research to back that up. Maybe later today...or maybe a reader wants to offer some links....

...Suzuki's model suggests that smaller juries are more likely than larger juries to convict when the defendant appears less certain to be guilty. All the juries he modeled are very likely to convict when the evidence suggests that a defendant is almost certainly guilty. But for slightly less certain cases, differences become clear.

If it appears that there's an 80 percent likelihood that the defendant is guilty, then Suzuki's model suggests that less than 10 percent of the time a 12-person jury would unanimously vote to convict, but a 6-person jury would unanimously vote to convict over 25 percent of the time ....<<<

QUOTING: In a study involving some 15,000 jurors it appeared that larger juries (more then six) are more likely to be representative of the community with minority groups, they deliberate longer, they end in a hung jury more often and they probably recall testimony more accurately then six person juries...... If you are the defendant you want more jurors for better chance of controversy, hung jury etc. The ABA position is that a jury of less then twelve is not representative of the community.

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"Change of Subject" by Chicago Tribune op-ed columnist Eric Zorn contains observations, reports, tips, referrals and tirades, though not necessarily in that order. Links will tend to expire, so seize the day. For an archive of Zorn's latest Tribune columns click here. An explanation of the title of this blog is here. If you have other questions, suggestions or comments, send e-mail to ericzorn at gmail.com.
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