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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

a dramatic shift... (am.25.feb.15)>

There has been plenty of action overnight, with occasional showers and thundershowers, accompanied by very strong wind gusts at times. My rain gauge shows 0.35" (9mm), but that amount is a bit suspect, since the high winds dislodged the gauge and it was hanging and blowing in the breeze when I checked it at about 6:45am! I'm recording a low temp of 47.7F (8.7C), though the temperature has been fluctuating wildly all night long. This morning at sunrise moderate rain is in progress.The very center of circulation of our intense late-winter storm is located right along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, southeast of Kabul. This system has some incredible dynamic energy associated with it, along with a pool of much colder air aloft, and a good amount of moisture being drawn northward against the mountains ahead of it. We will remain in a favorable position to receive waves of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day and even during most of the night. There could be some breaks in between periods of rain -- but I think we're in for some fairly heavy totals by early tomorrow morning -- perhaps an additional 4-5cm (1.6-2.0") or so. It's also likely that we'll see more strong and gusty winds, as some of the energy of this system gets translated down to the surface layers of the atmosphere.The mystery of the rain/snow line remains... colder and colder air will be moving in during the coming 12-24 hours or so, and that could at least give us the potential for some small hail and sleet. Heavy snow is already occurring up-mountain, and we'll just have to see how far down that snow line might creep tonight into Thursday morning.Somewhat of a break in the action is expected on Friday and Saturday, but yet another very strong (and wet) system is expected to move in on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be well below normal as we greet the new month of March.