Poll 2019 began furiously on Tuesday

Rilwan

27 Jan 2018

Some definite but unmistakeable fancy footwork over the 2019 general elections had been slowly evident before 2017 came to an end, but few Nigerians ever deduced that 2018 would open as frenetically as it has done this January with all manner of radical and complicated moves. Ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo triggered the chaotic footwork on Tuesday with his idiosyncratically damning summary of the failings of his chief victim, the enigmatic and taciturn Muhammadu Buhari. Chief Obasanjo, no longer a chief but now Ph.D., never shied away from damning his predecessors, but he often reserved his bitterest vitriol for his successors. President Buhari is the latest victim he has disembowelled so poignantly in a special statement released to the public and entitled “The way out: A clarion call for Coalition for Nigeria Movement”.

Not only was Dr Obasanjo’s press statement extraordinary in pummelling the president, indicating very vividly the failings of the object of his vitriol, it also more directly suggested a way out in the form of a conclave of Nigerians he was willing to mobilize, inspire and lead ad hoc. He calls the assemblage “Coalition for Nigerians”. Some news reports already indicate that a few governors and senators are eager to climb the Obasanjo coalition bandwagon. In his statement, the former president seems to suggest that those disenchanted with President Buhari, for reasons adequately amplified in the special statement, should join untainted hands with him in salvaging a country he said was hobbled by the president’s incalculable misdeeds.

That coalition, said Dr Obasanjo, could later, if members insist, metamorphose into a vote-seeking and vote-giving association. When that stage is reached, he counselled, he would step aside to allow a process he triggered achieve the right and salutary consummation. For now, and in the interim, he was presenting himself as the soul of the coalition designed to salvage the country from the perdition he said President Buhari sentenced it. There are already suggestions by many political commentators that the coalition referred to by Dr Obasanjo is in fact another name for the so-called political Third Force some eminent Nigerians and serving and former governors and senators have been toying with for some months. Whether Third Force or Coalition for Nigerians, it is clear Dr Obasanjo is interested in inspiring a group of politicians to take over power from the present set of failing leaders. Poll 2019 is truly and unmistakeably underway.

Even though their response to Dr Obasanjo’s initiative leaves much to be desired, considering how President Buhari’s defeneders clumsily sidestepped some of the critical issues the former president raised, they have focused mainly on the president’s economic achievements. Whether that is sufficient or not remains to be seen. But clearly, the defenders mean these achievements on the economic front as a template to argue the president’s suitability for re-election. And whether it is coincidental or not, the presidency, or more accurately the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has hauled in the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir David Lawal, for questioning with a view to preparing charges against him for wrongdoing involving his supervision of the Presidential Initiative for Northeast (PINE) contracts.

Nigerians had for long and repeatedly called for the former SGF’s prosecution. The presidency turned a deaf ear. Indeed, it took an inordinate amount of time before the government even accented to his investigation, suspension and sack. It also took an inordinate amount of time to consent to his arrest and prosecution. The government presumably anchored its foot-dragging on the need to observe due process as well as be consistent with the president’s famous defence of why he is slow in taking decisions. Dr Obasanjo had in his last Tuesday special statement accused the government of orchestrating corruption prosecution against only his opponents, and appearing to shield or prematurely exonerate those believed to be corrupt in his inner circle. The popular interpretation is that the move against the former SGF is an indication of the government’s sensitivity to the demands of Poll 2019. Even if this interpretation is far-fetched, the presidency did nothing before now to dispel that conspiratorial label.

But perhaps the most direct and incriminating step the presidency has taken, in the eyes of those who watch the government and interpret its every move, is the conclusion and release of the work of the Nasir el-Rufai panel on true federalism. Though the exercise was instituted by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) last August, it is only now that its report has been submitted to the party, apparently to the satisfaction of the presidency. Governor el-Rufai had spoken out disdainfully against restructuring, which he argued was politicised, and the APC itself had all but disavowed its promise on devolution of power, feigning ignorance of its inclusion in its campaign manifesto. Well, both governor and party have now hastily made their peace with the calls for substantial political and economic changes in the country. It is not clear how they hope to do something about the report before the 2019 polls, but at least they have enunciated some changes, and those changes left unattended could become an albatross on their necks.

Here is how Mallam el-Rufai summarised their assignment when the committee submitted its report to the party leadership: “After four months of rigorous research, we are pleased to inform the chairman we have completed our assignment and are here to present our report…The report is in four volumes with Volume One containing background information of the research and recommendations; Volume Two, Action plans from the research to implement its resolution and draft of bills; Volume 3, Media reports and the result of the online survey of the issue; and Volume Four, the appendix- summary of all memoranda received…We articulated 14 issues re-occurring in previous conferences. At the end of our rigorous research, debates and deliberations, we came up with 24 items that Nigerians have indicated interest views that balance our federation.

“These items are; creation of states, merger of states, delegation principle, fiscal federalism, devolution of power and resources between state, federal and local governments, federating units, form of government, independent candidacy, land tenure system, local government autonomy ,power sharing and rotation, resource control, types of legislature, demand for affirmation for vulnerable groups;people with disabilities, women and youth, ministerial appointment, citizenship, state constitution, community participation, minimum wage, governance, judiciary, state re-alignment and border adjustment, circular status of the federation; and referendum.

“We articulated only 13 issues from the various opinions expressed by Nigerians in our engagement, identified these 24 issues for which the committee deliberated and has made recommendations in the report. We went ahead to look at these recommendations to convert them into concrete actions that the party, government and the national assembly can take to re-balance our federation.”

Never mind that in some parts of his presentation Mallam el-Rufai could not resist using the first person singular and plural pronouns interchangeably, the important point is that the party, whose manifesto already indicated its point of view on political changes, needed all of four months to restate its belief in paradigm shifts. Even then, it is significant that the party had to be compelled to embrace a change it willingly and eagerly promised in its campaign manifesto pre-2015 elections, but later violently and intemperately disavowed when the country bristled against its retrogressive conservatism. Their biggest challenge, they will soon discover, is to get the legislature to go along with them when they (both the party and its leaders in government) are not really sold on the change they campaigned on.

Apart from the former SGF, there are a few other public personalities in government, or perhaps associated with government, who are yet to be called to account for alleged corrupt practices. Could the government and the ruling party muster the courage to bring them to justice with the same ire and diligence it has exhibited against opponents? Could they achieve substantial progress in that direction enough to convince the public that the presidency’s conversion to fair and undiscriminating anti-corruption war is real and lasting?

The public should expect more from the Buhari presidency in the coming weeks to countervail the heat and pressure the Obasanjo Coalition would subject it to. But their worst fear would be how to defang the new coalition dedicated to instigating a critical mass of anti-Buharists against the government. Everything in the coming months will be about politics and Poll 2019. There is, unfortunately, nothing else the government can do beyond executing remedial measures and hoping that those measures would be strong enough to arrest the momentum triggered by Dr Obasanjo’s special statement and newfangled coalition.