To be sure, this is not the first such gambit by Erdogan, who has previously warned that he could put refugees “on buses” to Europe. However, in the past Europe had never escalated to the point where the vast majority of the EP made it clear that unless Erdogan backs off his authoritarian ambitions, the key negotiation in progress with Turkey would end. As such, it puts Erdogan in a tight spot: concede domestically, and be seen weak, or push on hoping that his threat will force Europe to de-escalate.

Earlier in 2016, in exchange for a series of promises, including accelerated membership talks and steps towards visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to the EU’s Schengen zone and billions in promptly embezzled funds, Turkey agreed to crack down on smugglers and to accept migrants and refugees returned from Greece. The agreement and other measures have dramatically reduced the numbers crossing the Mediterranean, but it has been complicated by growing anti-EU sentiment in Turkey and fears of increasing authoritarianism that have only deepened since July’s aborted coup attempt.

The pain for Turkey is not over. The chart says it is just getting started.