Well I think that, from the polling and the trends in past elections, that it is 75% probability that Bush gets in again with a 95% propability of the Democrats saying that the election was "stolen", a 95% CI of 1,1 that Michael Moore with act like an wanker regardless of the result.

Oh and Tizer, you could "write a letter to a swing state voter", I almost spilt my Ouzo when I heard that The Guardian was trying that

I'll buy that--a 75% chance that Bush gets in, a 25% chance that Kerry gets in. Last night my dad, who, unlike me, is still watching the TV news, told me that just about every poll had Bush ahead, in all the big states, but the pollsters on the Internet are claiming it's too close to call. In fact, so did the Investor's Business Daily edition for today.