BREMMER: Putin's intervention in Syria is about 3 things

U.S.
President Barack Obama extends his hand to Russian President
Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the United Nations General
Assembly in New York September 28, 2015.Reuters

Russia's mounting military campaign in Syria is all about three
things, according to geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer.

Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, notes that Putin's
Syrian intervention is intended to bring about resonating results
across the world stage.

1) Shore up Assad

The most basic reason for Russia's interventionism in Syria is to
shore up the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Assad is a stalwart ally of Putin, and Syria contains Russia's
sole naval base on the Mediterranean Sea.

The Tartus base allows Russia to have greater strategic depth and
operational ability in the entire eastern Mediterranean.

“A big part of [Russia's] continued interest in Syria
and in Assad has to do with” the Tartus base, Russia expert with
the Center for Strategic and International
Studies Jeffrey Mankoff
told The Atlantic. “I think Russia does have a
bigger geopolitical view of the world, regards the eastern
Mediterranean as an area of importance, and wants to be sure that
it can secure its interests there.”

2) Embarrass President Obama

A second main goal of Putin's Syrian adventure is to embarrass
President Obama and diminish the US' role as the leading world
power. The more that Putin can cause Obama to look weak and
ineffectual, whether in Ukraine or in Syria, the better.

Already, Russia's role in Syria and the Kremlin's bombing of
rebels — including rebels
reportedly linked to the US — has caused a question of
leadership throughout the Middle East.

Faisal Al Yafai, the chief commentator for the UAE-based
newspaper The National,
told Reuters that "America and its allies now
look like the only group without a plan [in
Syria]."

And, as stock in US leadership falls, Russia has moved into
the void in an attempt to supplant US influence. Iraqi
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi
told PBS NewsHour that he would welcome any cooperation with
the Russian military against ISIS in Iraq.

"Our message to the Russians — I met with Putin — please
join this fight against Daesh," Abadi said.

President
Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir
Putin.Chip Somodevilla/Getty
Images

Domestically, Obama's foreign policy chops have also come
under additional scrutiny following Russia's actions in Ukraine
and Syria.

"I think the president's been a foreign policy
disaster," Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R)
said at the Washington Ideas Forum on September
30.

"You may love the president for a lot of reasons. His
rhetoric is soaring, but the results have been terribly
disappointing, and in terms of foreign policy,
disastrous."

3) Turn the European focus away from Ukraine

Russia's third goal in intervening in Syria is to steer
Europe's attention away from its role in having destabilized
Ukraine. By unilaterally seizing and annexing Crimea, as well as
helping to foment a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine between
the national government and Russian-backed separatists, Moscow
has brought war back to the European continent.

Europe and the US responded to the Ukraine conflict by
imposing punishing sanctions and visa travel bans on Russia.
The sanctions, which are time limited, were just extended for an
additional six months in September.

Tank
crew members of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic
take part in a tank during a military drill outside the urban
settlement of Torez in Donetsk regionThomson Reuters

The sanctions, in addition to slumping energy prices, has
had an outsized effect on the Russian economy. The International
Monetary Fund predicts that the combination of factors
could reduce Russia's GDP by 9%.

This pressure both assaults Putin's image as a strong
leader of Russia as well as undermining his political promise of
a less representative government in return for consistent
improvements in living standards for ordinary Russians.

But, by shifting both Europe and Russia's attention towards
Syria and the unfolding refugee crisis that the confolict is
driving, Putin can attempt to solidify the frozen conflict in
Ukraine and have Europe accept the situation as the new
normal.

Europe's refugee
crisisBI
Graphics

In addition, as the world's focus is removed from Ukraine,
Putin can ensure that his supported rebels in the east can
solidify their hold on Ukrainian territory. In the beginning of
October, for instance, a new Russian rocket system capable of
destroying city blocks in a single strike
was spotted in the separatist arsenal for the first
time.