The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.1% in October 2004. This follows revised increases of 0.1% in September and 0.2% in August.

In October 2004, the trend estimate increased in Victoria (+0.4%), Western Australia (+0.3%), Australian Capital Territory (+0.2%) and South Australia (+0.1%) while Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory were flat.

Over the three months to October 2004 the trend estimate increased by $73m. Household good retailing (+$38m) and Other retailing (+$27m) had the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.7% (-$113m) in October 2004. This followed a revised increase of 0.7% (+$113m) in September 2004.

Only the Australian Capital Territory recorded seasonally adjusted growth (+0.1% or +$0.2m) in October 2004. New South Wales and Tasmania had no growth while all other states and the Northern Territory decreased.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 3.3% in October 2004 compared with September 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 3.6%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 2.8%.

Australian turnover increased by 2.4% in October 2004 compared with October 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.0%, while 'smaller' retailers fell by 0.9%.

NOTES

SAMPLE ROTATION

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly updating of the frame and the estimation benchmarks and the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. These changes are made to ensure that the frame and sample remain representative of the population. In addition, the rotation of sampled businesses is done to spread the reporting load across retailers. While these changes can impact on the estimate for the first month of each quarter, the impact is usually within the normal standard errors associated with the estimates. In some months the impact can be greater and there is evidence that in October 2004 for some states, the businesses rotated into the sample were generally smaller than those rotated out, particularly for Queensland. This can lead to a decrease in the estimate. However, at the Australian level, the rotation effects were essentially offsetting.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for October 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series

Estimate

Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

16,803.0

118.5

Change from preceding month ($m)

535.2

82.8

% change from preceding month (%)

3.3

0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After 17 months of strong to moderate trend growth, the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series has had weak growth in the last four months. Household good retailing and Other retailing continued their moderate trend growth in October 2004 while all other industries were weak or in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

October 2004 was in decline after weak trend growth in July and August 2004, which followed 18 months of moderate growth. All states and territories except South Australia and Tasmania were flat or in decline in October 2004.

DEPARTMENT STORES

After strong trend growth from March to July 2004, growth slowed and was weak in October 2004. New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in October 2004. Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had weak or moderate trend growth over the last two months after periods of strong growth.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend was flat in October 2004 after a steady fall in growth rates since May 2004. Over the last four months Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth. Over this period, the rate of growth in all other states and territories has fallen and they were all in decline in October 2004.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The rate of trend growth decreased from June 2003 to March 2004 but has been slightly stronger in the last four months. Over the last three months, Victoria is the only state showing strong growth and Northern Territory is the only state or territory in decline.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth was weak in October 2004 after being flat or in decline in the previous three months. Western Australia and Tasmania have had strong growth over the last four months. Victoria has had moderate growth for the last three months and the territories were flat for the last two months. New South Wales has been in decline for 12 months, Queensland for four and South Australia for three after various periods of strong growth.

OTHER RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last six months, driven by strong growth in Queensland and Western Australia. South Australia has had weak growth over the last five months. New South Wales has been in decline for 12 months and the Australian Capital Territory for seven months. Victoria had weak growth in October 2004 after nine months of being flat or in decline.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for the last three months. Over the last six months, the rate of trend growth has generally been slightly stronger than that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

The trend has been in decline for the last five months. Northern Territory has had strong trend growth for the last six months. Victoria has had moderate growth for the last three months and the Australian Capital Territory continues to have weak trend growth. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for the last four months or longer.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

The rate of trend growth has been decreasing since April 2004 and the trend has been in decline for the last two months. Over the last three months all industries have been in decline except for Department stores (weak growth) and Household good retailing (moderate growth). Both Recreational good and Other retailing have been in decline since November 2003.

VICTORIA

Trend growth has been moderate for the last three months driven by strong growth in Household good retailing and moderate growth in Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services. Food retailing has been flat for six months. The rates of growth in Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have decreased significantly in recent months after periods of strong growth.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth was flat for October 2004. This reflects weak seasonally adjusted growth in September 2004 followed by a large decline in October. Over the last three months Other retailing (strong), Department stores (moderate) and Household good retailing (weak) have had trend growth while all other industries were in decline.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

In October 2004, the trend continued its sixth month of weak growth. After strong growth from April to August 2004, the rate of growth has slowed significantly in Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing. Over the last three months Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing have been in decline while Food retailing has had moderate growth.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth has decreased in recent months with weak trend growth in October 2004. Strong growth in recent months in Clothing and soft good, Recreational good and Other retailing has been offset by a decline in Hospitality and services and weakening growth in all other industries.

TASMANIA

The trend growth was flat in October 2004 after weakening growth since June 2004. Recreational good retailing had moderate growth in October after six months of strong growth and Household good retailing has had moderate growth for the last five months. Food retailing has had four months of weak growth. Hospitality and services has been in decline for five months and Clothing and soft good retailing for two months.