After the Vote, Does the Kurdish Dream of Independence Have a Chance?

Even before the Kurds had stopped celebrating their vote for independence, Iraq, Turkey and Iran began trying to undercut it.CreditIvor Prickett for The New York Times

ERBIL, Iraq — After a century of yearning, the Kurds of Iraq have managed, at last, to pull off a vote for independence, but not without antagonizing nearly everyone in perhaps the world’s most volatile region.

The question now is whether an arid, landlocked proto-state dependent on hostile neighbors can overcome is own shortcomings — and Iraq’s disruptive retaliation — to build a viable path to independence.

With its troubled economy and dearth of democratic institutions, its prospects were already tenuous. Its best hopes lay in its oil reserves and American support, but Turkey has threatened to cut off its oil pipeline, and the relationship with the United States soured after the Kurds rebuffed its entreaties to cancel the vote.

Rather than negotiate and then seek international recognition, as the United States and others had asked, the Kurds forged ahead with the referendum.

But if anything, the vote, while satisfying the Kurds emotionally, may have set back their national aspirations.

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Kurds registered to vote for the independence referendum at a gym in Erbil on Monday. About 93 percent of voters cast ballots in favor of breaking away from Iraq.CreditIvor Prickett for The New York Times

Now, after a 93 percent “yes” vote on Monday, the Kurds are beseeching Baghdad to negotiate. Baghdad is not only refusing, but has demanded that the vote results be annulled and has moved to isolate the region, known as Kurdistan.

For the Kurds, the vote was a potent and historic touchstone, a declaration to the world that they this is their moment and they are not turning back.

“This is an irreversible step toward independence,” said Peter W. Galbraith, a former American diplomat with close ties to the Kurdish leadership.

But the Kurds may have underestimated the depth of international opposition.

Before they had even stopped celebrating, Iraq and its two powerful neighbors, Turkey and Iran, immediately went to work to negate the vote. Iraq fears losing a third of its country, as well as oil and natural gas reserves. Turkey and Iran fear that independence for Iraq’s Kurds would embolden separatist ambitions among their own Kurdish minorities.

The fierce reaction has exposed Kurdistan’s distinct vulnerabilities and shortcomings. The region’s first days after the vote were spent not laying the groundwork for statehood, but struggling to escape a tightening noose.

On Saturday, Iraq moved to take control of the international border crossing leading into the region from Turkey, officials said in Baghdad.

Iraq has forced the suspension of international flights to Kurdistan’s two international airports, and threatened to close land crossings linking Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq.

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Iraq forced the suspension of international flights to and from Kurdistan’s two international airports.CreditIvor Prickett for The New York Times

Iraq’s Parliament has asked Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to bring charges against Kurdish leaders who participated in the referendum and to send troops into disputed areas claimed by both the Kurds and Baghdad.

Turkey and Iraq are conducting military maneuvers on Iraq’s borders near Kurdistan. Turkey has threatened to close its border crossing into Kurdistan, which relies on imported goods and food from Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Iran.

Iraq and Iran plan joint military maneuvers along their border next week, aimed at securing Iraqi control of three border crossings from areas controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government, Iran’s military said Saturday.

A healthy democratic government might weather the storm. But the Kurdistan Regional Government lacks the foundations of a democratic state — rule of law, free and fair elections, civil society and a legislature with real power to challenge a dynastic executive leadership.

“We don’t have rule of law — we have a monarchy,” said Rabbon Marof, a member of the Kurdish Parliament and a leader of the “No for Now” movement that opposed the vote.

The region’s president, Massoud Barzani, remains in power two years after his term expired. The Kurdish Parliament was paralyzed for two years until it met two weeks ago to rubber-stamp the referendum Mr. Barzani had already set in motion.

The government is a Barzani family enterprise. Mr. Barzani is the son of the former Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani. Massoud Barzani’s son Masrour Barzani heads the security council in his father’s government.

Massoud Barzani’s nephew, Nechirvan Barzani, is prime minister. The president’s uncle is Hoshyar Zebari, Iraqi’s former foreign minister and Mr. Barzani’s top adviser on the referendum.

Denise Natali, an expert on Kurdistan at National Defense University in Washington, says the issue for the Kurds may not be whether the region can transform itself into a state but the kind of state it would become: “poor, failed, and unstable.”

Mr. Zebari acknowledged in an interview on Friday that the regional government had “shortcomings,” but he said it was more democratic and secure than the rest of Iraq. He said the independence vote would force more accountability.

The region is an economic weakling dependent on oil. It earns roughly $8 billion a year from oil shipped through Turkey via a pipeline that Ankara now threatens to shut down.

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More than half of Kurdish oil revenue comes from the oil fields of Kirkuk, a city claimed by the Kurds and by the central government in Baghdad.CreditAndrea Bruce for The New York Times

Shutting down the pipeline would also cost Turkey, which earns between $500 million and $1 billion a year from it, according to regional experts. But the Turks could absorb a shutdown far easier than the Kurds.

Even with the pipeline flowing, the Kurdish economy is in dire straits. Oil revenues have plunged as the price of petroleum has fallen worldwide, depriving the government of its main source of revenue. The Kurdish government is $20 billion in debt, analysts say, and has not been able to pay all its soldiers and pays public employees only about 40 percent of their salaries.

“Kurdistan is not ready because economically, it is a mess,” said Joost Hiltermann, a Middle East specialist at the International Crisis Group. “I don’t see independence happening,” he added. “It’s all about capability, not desire.”

Moreover, more than half of Kurdish oil revenue comes from the oil fields of Kirkuk, a city that lies at the heart of the standoff with Baghdad.

Kurdish troops seized the multiethnic city after Iraqi troops fled an Islamic State assault in 2014.

Kurds consider Kirkuk a spiritual homeland. “To Kurds, Kirkuk is their Jerusalem,” said David L. Phillips, a former State Department adviser who has worked on Iraq for 30 years.

Kurds consider Kirkuk their spiritual homeland, “their Jerusalem,” one observer said. Baghdad considers the Kurdish claim on the city illegitimate.CreditIvor Prickett for The New York Times

Nor can the Kurds expect a lifeline from the United States, which protected them from Saddam Hussein’s executioners with a no-fly zone in 1991 that provided breathing space to carve out the autonomous enclave.

Washington feared the referendum would fracture Iraq and undermine the American-led coalition fighting Islamic State militants. Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said Friday that the United States did not recognize the referendum, which he said “lacks legitimacy,” and urged the Iraqis and Kurds to “remain focused on defeating ISIS.”

The Kurds believe they have a trump card in pesh merga fighters, who have played a pivotal role in the coalition. They held the referendum now, in part, because they feared losing their leverage if the coalition drives the militants out of Iraq.

But for the Kurdish leadership, there is no going back. Mr. Zebari said the Kurds’ relationship with Iraq was irrevocably broken, and the Kurds worry that Iran’s influence on Iraq’s Shiite-led government — and on Shiite militias incorporated into the Iraqi Army — will only strengthen.

“Instead of partnership, they are advocating majority rule by the Shiia, which will make us always a minority and always a loser,” Mr. Zebari said.

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Kurdish pesh merga fighters have played a pivotal role in the American-led coalition fighting Islamic State militants. The Kurds thought their contribution gave them leverage in winning American backing for their independence.CreditIvor Prickett for The New York Times

Mr. Barzani bet that a broad public mandate for independence would provide leverage against Baghdad in negotiating a separation. But there are no negotiations, at least not yet.

Mr. Phillips said Iraq would ultimately negotiate on “a friendly divorce,” with the United States as a likely intermediary.

“Negotiations are in Baghdad’s interests,” Mr. Phillips said. “Picking a fight with the Kurds would merely exacerbate conflict and instability.”

One possible way out, analysts said, could be a Kurdish confederation with Iraq, with constitutional power-sharing. Another, Mr. Phillips said, may involve shared governance of Kirkuk, with power distributed among ethnic groups.

If Kirkuk were somehow resolved or set aside, Iraq might well be willing to negotiate independence for the three governorates the Kurds have run virtually on their own for a quarter century. But even then, Mr. Hiltermann said, Iran and Turkey would not go along.

But Mr. Galbraith said that if Baghdad refuses to bargain in good faith, the Kurds may unilaterally declare independence at some point.

“It’s not an open-ended process,” he said, reflecting the Kurdish view. “You have to have an outcome which ultimately ends in independence.”

Mr. Zebari said the Kurds were willing to take the long view and patiently negotiate day-to-day obstacles on the path to eventual independence.

“We have said from the start that this is not a risk-free project,” he said.

Reporting was contributed by Alissa Rubin and Muhammad N. Mahmud from Erbil, Falih Hassan from Baghdad, and Clifford Krauss from Houston.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Kurds’ Vote for Independence Only Adds to Their Obstacles. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe