A quiet ally perhaps, but if they've already agreed to help us with refugees and downed pilots, it's a very good sign.

War offers Iran ticket off axis of evil

Brewing conflict next door in Baghdad puts Tehran on
best behavior

By Preston Mendenhall
MSNBC

TEHRAN, Iran, Feb. 28 Ă˘â‚¬â€ť Thirteen months after President Bush called Iran part of an Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“axis of evil,Ă˘â‚¬Âť and on the eve of a possible U.S.-led war against TehranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s similarly vilified neighbor, Iraq, the Iranian government has quietly weighed its reputation as an international pariah against AmericaĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s superpower might. The Islamic theocracyĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s conclusion, analysts and sources say, is that U.S. plans to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a threat.

CONFIRMATION OF IRANĂ˘â‚¬â„˘S official policies is difficult due to the countryĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s own complex political battles, waged between popularly elected reformers and hard-line Islamic clerics who control most of IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s power structures.
Still, signs of a subtle shift, especially as U.S. military action in Iraq appears to be drawing near, are perceptible.
On the fifth floor of the Ministry for Culture and Islamic Guidance, a battery of translators surfs the Internet, analyzing articles in a dozen foreign languages and attempting, with the occasional help of a visiting reporter, to appreciate nuances in Bush administration policies.

Instead of lashing out at the Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“Great SatanĂ˘â‚¬Âť at its doorstep, however, the Iranian government has kept its anti-U.S. epithets in check.
The anti-American graffiti that once coated Tehran has largely been wiped clean, except for the colorfully caricatured old U.S. Embassy Ă˘â‚¬â€ť a symbol of IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s Islamic Revolution that toppled the American-backed monarchy of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi more than two decades ago.

PASSAGE TO IRAQ
In the past month, IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s stated impartiality has had more of an air of participation.
Tehran has granted dozens of foreign journalists rare visas and allowed them to transit through Iran to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq ahead of a conflict. Syria and Turkey, which also share borders with IraqĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s north, have refused similar access for reporters.
Iran is also making preparations to accept hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees, readying camps along its frontier with Iraq. Relief officials say Iran would become a key player in caring for Iraqis displaced by war and would receive financial help.
And in the Persian Gulf, Iran has reversed its blind-eye policy toward Iraqi oil smugglers doing a brisk trade in illegal crude. Although not officially part of the international coalition that enforces the blockade, the Iranian navy also thwarts SaddamĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s contraband.
In its most serious engagement ahead of a war with Iraq, Iran has agreed to help the United States in search-and-rescue operations for U.S. pilots. The deal was worked out in a secret dialogue between Tehran and Washington last month.

Ă˘â‚¬ËśACTIVE NEUTRALITYĂ˘â‚¬â„˘
Analysts say IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s readiness to participate in the periphery of a U.S. war on its borders demonstrates the Islamic republicĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s practical approach to the Bush administrationĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s policy in the region.
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“ItĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s called active neutrality,Ă˘â‚¬Âť said Hermidas Bavand, an international relations professor and a former Foreign Ministry official in the shah and Islamic governments. Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“By accommodating U.S. military engagement in Iraq, the expectation is that [the war] could be used as a sort of breakthrough as far as the relationship between Iran and the United States is concerned.Ă˘â‚¬Âť
Iranians are no friends of Saddam Hussein, whose 1980 invasion of Iran sparked a bloody war that ended 10 years later with a million troops and civilians dead on both sides.

After being lumped together with Iraq Ă˘â‚¬â€ť and North Korea Ă˘â‚¬â€ť in BushĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“axis of evilĂ˘â‚¬Âť speech last year, the political dexterity of IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s leaders has been seriously challenged, said Bavand. He said IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s cooperation with the United States could be the Islamic theocracyĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s ticket off BushĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s black list.
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“Certain circles in Iran believed that a controlled Saddam is better than any other alternative. But common sense shows that the removal of Saddam would serve Iranian national interests,Ă˘â‚¬Âť said Bavand.
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“The choice is conflict or cooperation,Ă˘â‚¬Âť said Morad Vaisi, a Tehran-based expert in Iran-Iraq relations.

COOPERATION AND PAYBACK
In practical terms, U.S. officials say they are impressed with IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s behavior since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington. The Iranian government says it has arrested hundreds of al-Qaida fighters who strayed into Iran after the war in Afghanistan.
But IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s cooperation in the region comes with a price tag.
An Iraqi opposition official in Tehran, where a half-dozen anti-Saddam groups operate with the Iranian governmentĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s blessing and U.S. financial support, admitted Iranian officials have asked him to put in a Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“few good wordsĂ˘â‚¬Âť about them during his meetings with State Department officials.
If Iran succeeds in winning assurances from the United States that it is not next for Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“regime change,Ă˘â‚¬Âť TehranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s ability to keep Islamic fervor in check during a conflict with Iraq will be crucial to AmericaĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s attempts to stabilize region after a war.

Iran is also looking to play a larger role in post-war Iraq than it did in post-war Afghanistan. Extending its authority into Iraq may be easier, because Iran identifies strongly with IraqĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s majority Shiite Muslim population, long oppressed by SaddamĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s Sunni regime.
The road to Iranian-American reconciliation has not been smooth, as evidenced by a visit to Tehran earlier this month by Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri. SabriĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s unannounced meetings with the Iranian president and foreign minister, analyst Vaisi says, were designed to remind Washington that Iran is Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“ready to play all its cards, even if it doesnĂ˘â‚¬â„˘t like the hand itĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s dealt.Ă˘â‚¬Âť
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“In international relations, every threat has an opportunity and every opportunity has a threat,Ă˘â‚¬Âť Vaisi said. Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“The test is for Iran and the United States to manage and control the challenges so the elimination of Saddam Hussein will be an opportunity for both of us.Ă˘â‚¬Âť

ohall

03-07-2003, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by PhinPhan1227
A quiet ally perhaps, but if they've already agreed to help us with refugees and downed pilots, it's a very good sign.

War offers Iran ticket off axis of evil

Brewing conflict next door in Baghdad puts Tehran on
best behavior

By Preston Mendenhall
MSNBC

TEHRAN, Iran, Feb. 28 Ă˘â‚¬â€ť Thirteen months after President Bush called Iran part of an Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“axis of evil,Ă˘â‚¬Âť and on the eve of a possible U.S.-led war against TehranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s similarly vilified neighbor, Iraq, the Iranian government has quietly weighed its reputation as an international pariah against AmericaĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s superpower might. The Islamic theocracyĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s conclusion, analysts and sources say, is that U.S. plans to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a threat.

CONFIRMATION OF IRANĂ˘â‚¬â„˘S official policies is difficult due to the countryĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s own complex political battles, waged between popularly elected reformers and hard-line Islamic clerics who control most of IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s power structures.
Still, signs of a subtle shift, especially as U.S. military action in Iraq appears to be drawing near, are perceptible.
On the fifth floor of the Ministry for Culture and Islamic Guidance, a battery of translators surfs the Internet, analyzing articles in a dozen foreign languages and attempting, with the occasional help of a visiting reporter, to appreciate nuances in Bush administration policies.

Instead of lashing out at the Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“Great SatanĂ˘â‚¬Âť at its doorstep, however, the Iranian government has kept its anti-U.S. epithets in check.
The anti-American graffiti that once coated Tehran has largely been wiped clean, except for the colorfully caricatured old U.S. Embassy Ă˘â‚¬â€ť a symbol of IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s Islamic Revolution that toppled the American-backed monarchy of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi more than two decades ago.

PASSAGE TO IRAQ
In the past month, IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s stated impartiality has had more of an air of participation.
Tehran has granted dozens of foreign journalists rare visas and allowed them to transit through Iran to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq ahead of a conflict. Syria and Turkey, which also share borders with IraqĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s north, have refused similar access for reporters.
Iran is also making preparations to accept hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees, readying camps along its frontier with Iraq. Relief officials say Iran would become a key player in caring for Iraqis displaced by war and would receive financial help.
And in the Persian Gulf, Iran has reversed its blind-eye policy toward Iraqi oil smugglers doing a brisk trade in illegal crude. Although not officially part of the international coalition that enforces the blockade, the Iranian navy also thwarts SaddamĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s contraband.
In its most serious engagement ahead of a war with Iraq, Iran has agreed to help the United States in search-and-rescue operations for U.S. pilots. The deal was worked out in a secret dialogue between Tehran and Washington last month.

Ă˘â‚¬ËśACTIVE NEUTRALITYĂ˘â‚¬â„˘
Analysts say IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s readiness to participate in the periphery of a U.S. war on its borders demonstrates the Islamic republicĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s practical approach to the Bush administrationĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s policy in the region.
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“ItĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s called active neutrality,Ă˘â‚¬Âť said Hermidas Bavand, an international relations professor and a former Foreign Ministry official in the shah and Islamic governments. Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“By accommodating U.S. military engagement in Iraq, the expectation is that [the war] could be used as a sort of breakthrough as far as the relationship between Iran and the United States is concerned.Ă˘â‚¬Âť
Iranians are no friends of Saddam Hussein, whose 1980 invasion of Iran sparked a bloody war that ended 10 years later with a million troops and civilians dead on both sides.

After being lumped together with Iraq Ă˘â‚¬â€ť and North Korea Ă˘â‚¬â€ť in BushĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“axis of evilĂ˘â‚¬Âť speech last year, the political dexterity of IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s leaders has been seriously challenged, said Bavand. He said IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s cooperation with the United States could be the Islamic theocracyĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s ticket off BushĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s black list.
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“Certain circles in Iran believed that a controlled Saddam is better than any other alternative. But common sense shows that the removal of Saddam would serve Iranian national interests,Ă˘â‚¬Âť said Bavand.
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“The choice is conflict or cooperation,Ă˘â‚¬Âť said Morad Vaisi, a Tehran-based expert in Iran-Iraq relations.

COOPERATION AND PAYBACK
In practical terms, U.S. officials say they are impressed with IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s behavior since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington. The Iranian government says it has arrested hundreds of al-Qaida fighters who strayed into Iran after the war in Afghanistan.
But IranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s cooperation in the region comes with a price tag.
An Iraqi opposition official in Tehran, where a half-dozen anti-Saddam groups operate with the Iranian governmentĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s blessing and U.S. financial support, admitted Iranian officials have asked him to put in a Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“few good wordsĂ˘â‚¬Âť about them during his meetings with State Department officials.
If Iran succeeds in winning assurances from the United States that it is not next for Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“regime change,Ă˘â‚¬Âť TehranĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s ability to keep Islamic fervor in check during a conflict with Iraq will be crucial to AmericaĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s attempts to stabilize region after a war.

Iran is also looking to play a larger role in post-war Iraq than it did in post-war Afghanistan. Extending its authority into Iraq may be easier, because Iran identifies strongly with IraqĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s majority Shiite Muslim population, long oppressed by SaddamĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s Sunni regime.
The road to Iranian-American reconciliation has not been smooth, as evidenced by a visit to Tehran earlier this month by Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri. SabriĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s unannounced meetings with the Iranian president and foreign minister, analyst Vaisi says, were designed to remind Washington that Iran is Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“ready to play all its cards, even if it doesnĂ˘â‚¬â„˘t like the hand itĂ˘â‚¬â„˘s dealt.Ă˘â‚¬Âť
Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“In international relations, every threat has an opportunity and every opportunity has a threat,Ă˘â‚¬Âť Vaisi said. Ă˘â‚¬Ĺ“The test is for Iran and the United States to manage and control the challenges so the elimination of Saddam Hussein will be an opportunity for both of us.Ă˘â‚¬Âť

Good for them, and that's a good sign, but of course keep an eye on em! :D