Construction
of dams may bless us with economic prosperity, surplus food supply,
enlightened moderation and political stability

By MUHAMMAD SALEEM
Dec 06 - 12, 2004

Pakistan being an agrarian society is on the verge of
an acute water shortage in shadow of impending wheat and energy crisis.
It may impart a visible dent on our agricultural production. In present
circumstances, wheat production may demonstrates a negative trend of up
to 58 percent while other major as well as minor crops would also be
sailing in the same boat. South Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan would be
under severe drought. For next Rabi crops 2004-05 Pakistan needs 36maf
but water availability would be 17maf. At present, tarbela and mangla
dams keep 3maf and 2.3maf respectively, in a situation, when there is no
chance of ice melting on glaciers, as Indus and Jehlum drive 85 and 40
percent of their waters from glaciers.

Water being lifeblood for agriculture, industry and
domestic activities has become a dwindling natural resource on this
contemporary globe. Everyone either is well developed or an
underdeveloped country is striving hard to harvest and develop new water
resources for future needs. Many international organizations like IWMI,
Word Watch Institute, UNESCO, IMF, World Bank and FAO have expressed
their deep concerns over the scarcity of water and declared it as a
major reason for future wars among the world nation. In Pakistan, water
availability per capita was 5650 cubic meter in 1956 that has been
declined to 1200 cubic meter in 2003-04. This is expected that
population bloom that is growing at the rate of 2.5 percent would force
it down to the stress quantum that is less then 1000 cubic meter. At one
time our agriculture was fed by canal water, but later on growing demand
for food, fiber and other agri-commodies partially replace it with tube
well water system. The ground water pumage has got weightage from
3.34maf in 1960 to 48-50 maf in the 2003-04. But mismanagement and
little know-how about its compatible consumptions have tricked down a
lot of ecological threats in forms of soil environment degradation and
exhaustion of aquifer. More than 3 million hectare of cultivable lands
has been converted into salt affected soil owing to indiscriminate use
of brackish tube well water and on the other side water table depletion
rate has become one meter per year in our country. Pakistan keeps
precious assets of this life sustaining commodity round about 210maf of
ground and surface water, from this 105maf is distributed among 19
barrages and 45 main canals that cover a length of 57000km. This water
supports more than 16 million hectare of irrigated agriculture with an
application efficiency of 50 percent...what a tremendous loss. Again
there is water politics among our politicians who are entirely devoid of
patriotism and enriched in the personalism, waste 35-40 maf of this
lifeblood below kotri barrage. For storage purpose we have three main
storage bodies namely, Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla. Sedimentation menace
is reducing their storage capacity day by day and it would touch peak
value of 6maf equal to large water reservoir in 2010. In this context,
this moment is eye-opening to our intelligentsias, intellectuals,
generals, politicians and noble beaurocracy that our neighboring
countries like India and China have built 4200 and 22,000 large dames
(one large dame is a dame with height greater than 15 meter/48ft) since
in 1948. But our inefficiency and ignorance is again obvious from the
India's bold violation of Indus Water Treaty 1960 signed under the
supervision of World Bank. She is fast erecting controversial Baglihar
hydro-power project of 450mw over Chenab, wuller barrage over Jehlum and
opening her wing for the construction of many other dams on Ravi and
Beas to squeeze the remaining lot of these tributaries. But we have been
quarreling over Kalabagh dam for the last twenty years. Construction of
new dames is vital for a country like Pakistan that has become
homeground for multi-colored crises like food shortage, water shortage
and political instability. Being an agrarian society, our agriculture
sector consumes early 95 percent of total available fresh water that
mainly comes from canal water. More than 80 percent area of our country
receives an average annual rainfall of less than 15 inches, which is
insufficient for sustainable agriculture. But on the other face, our
major crops like cotton, wheat, sugarcane, rice and maize are high
delta's crops and utilize 85 percent of total water available for
irrigated agriculture. Wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, fodder and other
crops require 23maf (25 percent), 18maf (19 percent), 17maf (18
percent), 9.5maf (10 percent), 9.49maf (10.2 percen) and 17maf (18
percent) water.

According to a rough estimate our country needs
11,000mw to keep itself alive but its value hardly touches a maximum of
10,000mw. Hydro-power meets 30 percent of our electricity needs. Water
shortage has accentuated the pre-existing energy crises further by
forcing the hydle power generation down to 55 percent. This has enmeshed
not only our industrial potential but also enervated our agriculture
sector. If water level in our major reservoir is raised by raising their
heights; it may cure our wounds produced by untimely load shedding.
Sound management practices like raising water level in our pre-existing
buckets may boost electricity supply as 3500mw from Tarbela, 1100mw from
Mangla, 1500mw from Ghazi Brootha and 200mw from Chashma. It may liquefy
and mobilize our glaciered industry on sustained basis. In the
meanwhile, if our so-called lords break their motionless stand over this
issue, we would be able to generate 3600mw, 3700mw, and 600mw of
electricity and store 7.9, 9.09 and 7maf from Kalabagh, Bhasha and
Akhori dams respectively. Only Kalabagh dam would yield 11,500 million
units of electric power. The construction of Sakurdo, mund and other
possible storage bodies should be done without any delay. Along with
completion of these projects attention should be paid to locate sites
for building small dams to face this challenge on micro level as
construction of dam near Karoonghar Mountains is pre-request to ensure
the existence of local life. It is pertinent to reiterate that one
school of thought presents a tableau of environmental degradation and
taboo the construction of new dam. Of course, there exist few exogenous
factors that bring us to home to be serious about the ecology of the
area. These fears reflect our inefficiency to deal this matter with
solid determination and devotion. By adopting and mobilizing an
integrated approach we may burry this crosier situation. It is an
irrefutable truth that major flow of water below Kotri is low during
July to September, while other months of a year experience almost a
sandy view in the Indus. A minimum flow of water can be maintained
throughout the year instead of allowing huge volume of water to become a
part of sea. Again by building water dykes, problem of sea encroachment,
saline-sodic sea water intrusion and environmental degradation can
checked by following the countries like Holland that is much below the
sea level. Again this minimum flow can be saved and diverted to feed
mangroves forest. In this modern world, there is a solution of every
thing. Many countries have developed special techniques to settle the
coastal life problems. These might be imported and implemented to ensure
the future of billions residing along lifeline so-called Indus River of
our country. In nutshell, construction of dams may bless us with
economic prosperity, surplus food supply, enlightened moderation and
political stability. This is the high time for our policy makers to take
off their polarized lens and face the stark reality of time in present
scenario of WTO and globalization.