10 Reasons why HD-DVD and Blu-Ray Have Already Failed

I¹m not typically a doom and gloom kind of guy ­ really, I¹m rather
optimistic. But this pending format release/war is simply the most
ridiculous thing I¹ve seen in a long time. The hype machine is entirely
enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a
fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its
release, I began to understand the power of public mania.

There are a number of reasons why the new high definition DVD formats
have already failed and I¹ll gladly go over some of them in this
article. I am not a soothsayer, but I do study the industry ­ and at
times, sit back and take assessment of what¹s happening from both a
consumer and manufacturer perspective.

Without any further ado, here are the reasons HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc
will never turn into the dominant formats for digital media viewing:

1. Nobody likes false starts
With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a
buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a
speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream
came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a
player that didn¹t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software
does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track,
the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of
HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of
software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch.

2. Format Wars Don¹t Sell Players
The only reason Sony¹s Playstation, Microsoft¹s Xbox and the Nintendo
GameCube can sell so well simultaneously is because of the prevalence of
excellent software titles. People want to buy the hardware just so they
can play the software. This is not a format war ­ it is choice, just
like Chevy and Ford (and just like the gaming systems, some people have
one of each). The high definition DVD formats, however are really just
the same source material packaged in two different wrappers- not to
provide choice, mind you, but because the two camps simply are too
greedy to combine forces, and not innovative enough to drive two truly
separate products successfully. Take careful note ­ a format war is NOT
competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology
Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The
new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to
instantly access tracks across an entire ³album². Convenience, not
technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast
forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again,
convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike
VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would
not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats. Heck, the
concept of a shiny plastic disc was new ­ and quite frankly, it was the
coolest thing to hit the technological shelf since solid state
technology. In comparison, the high definition DVD formats, save the
color of the business side of the disc, look exactly the sameŠ and
consumer confusion will surely follow.

What do the new high definition DVD formats offer consumers over DVD?
Technology and more storage. Is this enough? Not on your life.
Consumers, most of whom rarely know how to properly configure their
players or home theater systems, are perfectly content with their
current DVD players (and indeed some have just jumped on board to DVD in
the last several years). While the potential for more extras and
alternate endings exists due to increased storage on the new media,
there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new
high definition DVD formats in large numbers.

4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated
Studios are so conservative in their practices as to consistently miss
out on market advances ­ even those that can make them money (ie. Why is
a computer company running the world¹s most successful online music
store?) The studios are not jumping on board the high definition DVD
bandwagon just yet ­ and you can see the lack of titles to prove it. If
the movie studios decided that HD DVD or Blu-ray (or both) was to be the
next dominant format, it need only to flood the market with software
titles and present a plan to roll back on DVD production over the next
10 years. Even though this would grant them the secure format that they
seem to want (HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs promise to be much harder to rip
or duplicate) there is no indication in the industry that this is taking
place or even in the works. The studios are making money hand over fist
with DVD they cannot seem to bring themselves to seriously initiate a
new, unproven technology ­ even if it saves them from some other
copyright headaches.

Add to this the fact that new titles are coming out at $30 a pop (and
this down from an initial $35/title) and you have a really hard sell for
consumers who are used to $15 titles at Wal-mart and the large
electronics chains.

5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World
We have consistently heard it said that the Playstation3 will ³jump
start² the market by flooding it with millions of gaming systems capable
of handling Blu-ray Disc software. The problem with this theory is that
the PS3 is not being marketed as a home theater component and, if
current installations prove the rule, most will not be situated in the
average consumer¹s living room. The result is that the PS3 will
primarily be a *gasp* gaming system. Maybe I have a more traditional
group of parents in my association of friends, but, taking into account
#4 above, I do not think that Blu-ray will make any major leaps forward
in market penetration as a home video format ­ at least not anytime
soon.

History is bearing this out, as the HTPC market, though driven hard by
such manufacturers as Microsoft, Dell and HP, has struggled to find a
place in the living room. Nearly every gaming system of the past: PS2,
Xbox, and even the legendary 3DO system have been touted as ³set-top
boxes² but in reality find themselves situated in more ³gaming-centric²
environments playingŠ you guessed it, games.

6. Those Who Ignore HistoryŠ
For years we¹ve heard about the evils of MP3 and illegal downloading.
All the while the RIAA and music industry had two formats that could
have prevented any illegal copying ­ at least for all but the most
dedicated crackers: DVD-Audio and SACD. These formats proved to be
higher quality than CD, presented much enhanced copy protection schemes
and were easily used as alternative formats to CD. Yet both formats
failed miserably to achieve any significant market penetration. Why?
Without an artificial ³shove² from the record industry ­ which never
materialized ­ technology alone is never enough to push a new format
into the hands of consumers. In terms of convenience and ease of use,
DVD-Audio and SACD offered nothing to consumers. In fact, they made
listening to music more complex, since most hardware was unable to
correctly decode and provide adequate bass management for the new
formats.

Could these formats have succeeded? Absolutely. If the recording
industry had presented a plan to phase out CDs and the ³format war² had
been avoided (simply by the industry picking one format over the other)
we would all be using DVD-Audio players and illegal downloadable music
would be mostly confined to analogue rips or older music. Is this a
stretch? Perhaps, but only because history shows us that corporate greed
causes most companies to miss the long term economical gains over a
short term loss of licensing revenues.

7. People Want Technology that¹s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time
For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being
able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy
Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference
between that and his older SD TV is amazing ­ at least when he¹s
watching DVDs. You see, that¹s the problem ­ and it¹s two-fold. While
most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they¹re already
impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing
than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high
definition discs.

The other side of the coin is the lack of HD content available on TV ­
and this is a biggie. While Billy Bob is impressed by his DVD player, he
is dumbfounded by his cable TV ­ which actually looks worse than it did
on his old set (mostly because it¹s bigger). You see, nobody told Billy
Bob that he¹d have to get an antenna or subscribe to HD service from his
cable/satellite provider. He was also not told that most of his favorite
shows (Billy likes sitcoms and the Sci-Fi Channel) aren¹t yet available
in HD, regardless of technology or service provider. As a result, many
Americans are underwhelmed or feel like they got burned by HDTV. The
last thing they¹re going to do is rush out and buy the next greatest
thing.

8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)
While some home theater audio- and videophiles have the money and
inclination to rush out and buy the latest and greatest toys as soon as
they are available, many more are becoming more cautious. Burned by
8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP
HDTV) ­ these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard
before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons. This leaves a
shrunken market of even the bleeding-edge consumers, and that means even
less sales to early-adopters.

9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn¹t Help
I¹ll admit it, we¹re part of the ³problem² (though I¹d like to think
we¹re saving consumers from making the next big mistake). An
increasingly skeptical news media isn¹t buying into the hype of HD DVD
and Blu-ray, especially not after wasting millions of editorial words on
DVD-Audio and SACD, only to watch the software and technology dwindle
into obscurity. Even after almost 6 years, most consumers continue to
proffer puzzled looks when these audio formats are mentioned. The new
DVD formats are getting plenty of press, mind you, but with the Toshiba
flop and lack of software, the fact that the Emperor has no clothes (at
least not yet) is hard to avoid.

10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?
With Verizon, AOL, Time Warner and others jumping to provide HD
on-demand services for the consumer it is a very likely event that high
definition DVD will be something that isn¹t relevant in a
service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer¹s recent push
for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more
interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality
source material. Even with respect to high definition formats,
downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high
definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer
model is being readied for testing in South Carolina¹s head-end for Time
Warner Cable this year.

So, while I certainly hope for the best, that¹s my story and I¹m
stickin¹ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
not an industry takeover.

Advertisements

Give it time! Some of the points you raised belowalso applied to the launch
of DVD. From false starts to a skeptical mainstean press to prices (Players
were $500! By year's end, you'll be able to get a Toshiba HD player for
LESS than that) to lack of consumer awareness to conservative studios.
(Actually, there might already be more HD discs on the market than there
were DVDs at launch.)

The real difference is that there was no DVD format battle. But for the
average consumer, there's no HD battle that they know of either. Whichever
format becomes "branded" in the public mind will be the winner, pricing
aside. If everyone has heard of Blu-Ray but no one has heard of HD-DVD,
guess which one they'll opt for?
(This also applies to DVD-A and SACD...to this day, most people haven't
heard of either of those formats.)

It will come down to promotion and marketing. And Sony has the marketing
and hardware support to probably pull ahead in that arena.

"Black Locust" <> wrote in message
news:...
> 10 Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed
> Wednesday, June 21 2006
>
> I¹m not typically a doom and gloom kind of guy ­ really, I¹m rather
> optimistic. But this pending format release/war is simply the most
> ridiculous thing I¹ve seen in a long time. The hype machine is entirely
> enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a
> fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its
> release, I began to understand the power of public mania.
>
> There are a number of reasons why the new high definition DVD formats
> have already failed and I¹ll gladly go over some of them in this
> article. I am not a soothsayer, but I do study the industry ­ and at
> times, sit back and take assessment of what¹s happening from both a
> consumer and manufacturer perspective.
>
> Without any further ado, here are the reasons HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc
> will never turn into the dominant formats for digital media viewing:
>
> 1. Nobody likes false starts
> With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a
> buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a
> speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream
> came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a
> player that didn¹t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software
> does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track,
> the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of
> HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of
> software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch.
>
> 2. Format Wars Don¹t Sell Players
> The only reason Sony¹s Playstation, Microsoft¹s Xbox and the Nintendo
> GameCube can sell so well simultaneously is because of the prevalence of
> excellent software titles. People want to buy the hardware just so they
> can play the software. This is not a format war ­ it is choice, just
> like Chevy and Ford (and just like the gaming systems, some people have
> one of each). The high definition DVD formats, however are really just
> the same source material packaged in two different wrappers- not to
> provide choice, mind you, but because the two camps simply are too
> greedy to combine forces, and not innovative enough to drive two truly
> separate products successfully. Take careful note ­ a format war is NOT
> competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs.
>
> 3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology
> Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The
> new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to
> instantly access tracks across an entire ³album². Convenience, not
> technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast
> forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again,
> convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike
> VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would
> not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats. Heck, the
> concept of a shiny plastic disc was new ­ and quite frankly, it was the
> coolest thing to hit the technological shelf since solid state
> technology. In comparison, the high definition DVD formats, save the
> color of the business side of the disc, look exactly the sameS and
> consumer confusion will surely follow.
>
> What do the new high definition DVD formats offer consumers over DVD?
> Technology and more storage. Is this enough? Not on your life.
> Consumers, most of whom rarely know how to properly configure their
> players or home theater systems, are perfectly content with their
> current DVD players (and indeed some have just jumped on board to DVD in
> the last several years). While the potential for more extras and
> alternate endings exists due to increased storage on the new media,
> there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new
> high definition DVD formats in large numbers.
>
> 4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated
> Studios are so conservative in their practices as to consistently miss
> out on market advances ­ even those that can make them money (ie. Why is
> a computer company running the world¹s most successful online music
> store?) The studios are not jumping on board the high definition DVD
> bandwagon just yet ­ and you can see the lack of titles to prove it. If
> the movie studios decided that HD DVD or Blu-ray (or both) was to be the
> next dominant format, it need only to flood the market with software
> titles and present a plan to roll back on DVD production over the next
> 10 years. Even though this would grant them the secure format that they
> seem to want (HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs promise to be much harder to rip
> or duplicate) there is no indication in the industry that this is taking
> place or even in the works. The studios are making money hand over fist
> with DVD they cannot seem to bring themselves to seriously initiate a
> new, unproven technology ­ even if it saves them from some other
> copyright headaches.
>
> Add to this the fact that new titles are coming out at $30 a pop (and
> this down from an initial $35/title) and you have a really hard sell for
> consumers who are used to $15 titles at Wal-mart and the large
> electronics chains.
>
> 5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World
> We have consistently heard it said that the Playstation3 will ³jump
> start² the market by flooding it with millions of gaming systems capable
> of handling Blu-ray Disc software. The problem with this theory is that
> the PS3 is not being marketed as a home theater component and, if
> current installations prove the rule, most will not be situated in the
> average consumer¹s living room. The result is that the PS3 will
> primarily be a *gasp* gaming system. Maybe I have a more traditional
> group of parents in my association of friends, but, taking into account
> #4 above, I do not think that Blu-ray will make any major leaps forward
> in market penetration as a home video format ­ at least not anytime
> soon.
>
> History is bearing this out, as the HTPC market, though driven hard by
> such manufacturers as Microsoft, Dell and HP, has struggled to find a
> place in the living room. Nearly every gaming system of the past: PS2,
> Xbox, and even the legendary 3DO system have been touted as ³set-top
> boxes² but in reality find themselves situated in more ³gaming-centric²
> environments playingS you guessed it, games.
>
> 6. Those Who Ignore HistoryS
> For years we¹ve heard about the evils of MP3 and illegal downloading.
> All the while the RIAA and music industry had two formats that could
> have prevented any illegal copying ­ at least for all but the most
> dedicated crackers: DVD-Audio and SACD. These formats proved to be
> higher quality than CD, presented much enhanced copy protection schemes
> and were easily used as alternative formats to CD. Yet both formats
> failed miserably to achieve any significant market penetration. Why?
> Without an artificial ³shove² from the record industry ­ which never
> materialized ­ technology alone is never enough to push a new format
> into the hands of consumers. In terms of convenience and ease of use,
> DVD-Audio and SACD offered nothing to consumers. In fact, they made
> listening to music more complex, since most hardware was unable to
> correctly decode and provide adequate bass management for the new
> formats.
>
> Could these formats have succeeded? Absolutely. If the recording
> industry had presented a plan to phase out CDs and the ³format war² had
> been avoided (simply by the industry picking one format over the other)
> we would all be using DVD-Audio players and illegal downloadable music
> would be mostly confined to analogue rips or older music. Is this a
> stretch? Perhaps, but only because history shows us that corporate greed
> causes most companies to miss the long term economical gains over a
> short term loss of licensing revenues.
>
> 7. People Want Technology that¹s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time
> For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being
> able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy
> Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference
> between that and his older SD TV is amazing ­ at least when he¹s
> watching DVDs. You see, that¹s the problem ­ and it¹s two-fold. While
> most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they¹re already
> impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing
> than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high
> definition discs.
>
> The other side of the coin is the lack of HD content available on TV ­
> and this is a biggie. While Billy Bob is impressed by his DVD player, he
> is dumbfounded by his cable TV ­ which actually looks worse than it did
> on his old set (mostly because it¹s bigger). You see, nobody told Billy
> Bob that he¹d have to get an antenna or subscribe to HD service from his
> cable/satellite provider. He was also not told that most of his favorite
> shows (Billy likes sitcoms and the Sci-Fi Channel) aren¹t yet available
> in HD, regardless of technology or service provider. As a result, many
> Americans are underwhelmed or feel like they got burned by HDTV. The
> last thing they¹re going to do is rush out and buy the next greatest
> thing.
>
> 8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)
> While some home theater audio- and videophiles have the money and
> inclination to rush out and buy the latest and greatest toys as soon as
> they are available, many more are becoming more cautious. Burned by
> 8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP
> HDTV) ­ these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard
> before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons. This leaves a
> shrunken market of even the bleeding-edge consumers, and that means even
> less sales to early-adopters.
>
> 9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn¹t Help
> I¹ll admit it, we¹re part of the ³problem² (though I¹d like to think
> we¹re saving consumers from making the next big mistake). An
> increasingly skeptical news media isn¹t buying into the hype of HD DVD
> and Blu-ray, especially not after wasting millions of editorial words on
> DVD-Audio and SACD, only to watch the software and technology dwindle
> into obscurity. Even after almost 6 years, most consumers continue to
> proffer puzzled looks when these audio formats are mentioned. The new
> DVD formats are getting plenty of press, mind you, but with the Toshiba
> flop and lack of software, the fact that the Emperor has no clothes (at
> least not yet) is hard to avoid.
>
> 10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?
> With Verizon, AOL, Time Warner and others jumping to provide HD
> on-demand services for the consumer it is a very likely event that high
> definition DVD will be something that isn¹t relevant in a
> service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer¹s recent push
> for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more
> interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality
> source material. Even with respect to high definition formats,
> downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high
> definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer
> model is being readied for testing in South Carolina¹s head-end for Time
> Warner Cable this year.
>
> So, while I certainly hope for the best, that¹s my story and I¹m
> stickin¹ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
> not an industry takeover.
>
> By Clint DeBoer
>
> http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php
> --
> "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
> They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our
people,
> and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush

Whether or not either of the 2 existing high definition DVD formats succeed,
high definition DVDs of *some* type will supercede today's DVDs. That's
because big screen TVs are dropping in price like rocks, more people are
buying them, and our current DVDs don't have enough resolution for them.
Just go to Circuit City or some other electronics store, and compare an HD
broadcast to a DVD playing on a 52" screen. You can definitely tell the
difference. The HD broadcast looks like your watching real life through a
window. It's awesome. I want an HD TV. They've gotta come down to about
$700, though, before I'd seriously think about buying one.

Guest

Black Locust wrote:
> 10 Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed
> Wednesday, June 21 2006
>
> So, while I certainly hope for the best, that¹s my story and I¹m
> stickin¹ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
> not an industry takeover.

Well stated, and I agree ... it's a RACKET ... and it's all
manufactured by China.

Funny no one ever denotes that fact in their critical reviews of the
consumer garbage it produces ... for even the Pathetic Rim knows that
trash begets trash.

Oh, and let's not forget that this country is being put out of business.

On 27 Jun 2006 19:04:31 -0700, Gave us:
>
>Black Locust wrote:
>> 10 Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed
>> Wednesday, June 21 2006
>>
>> So, while I certainly hope for the best, that?s my story and I?m
>> stickin? to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
>> not an industry takeover.
>
>Well stated, and I agree ... it's a RACKET ... and it's all
>manufactured by China.
>
>Funny no one ever denotes that fact in their critical reviews of the
>consumer garbage it produces ... for even the Pathetic Rim knows that
>trash begets trash.
>
>Oh, and let's not forget that this country is being put out of business.

My god! The idiots are coming out of the woodwork!

China MANUFACTURES products. They get designed elsewhere, and are
owned by companies centered elsewhere, so the "racket" you jack off at
the mouth about does NOT have ANYTHING to do with China.

Black Locust wrote:
> 10 Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed
> Wednesday, June 21 2006
>
> I¹m not typically a doom and gloom kind of guy ­ really, I¹m rather
> optimistic. But this pending format release/war is simply the most
> ridiculous thing I¹ve seen in a long time. The hype machine is entirely
> enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a
> fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its
> release, I began to understand the power of public mania.
>
> There are a number of reasons why the new high definition DVD formats
> have already failed and I¹ll gladly go over some of them in this
> article. I am not a soothsayer, but I do study the industry ­ and at
> times, sit back and take assessment of what¹s happening from both a
> consumer and manufacturer perspective.
>
> Without any further ado, here are the reasons HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc
> will never turn into the dominant formats for digital media viewing:
>
> 1. Nobody likes false starts
> With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a
> buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a
> speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream
> came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a
> player that didn¹t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software
> does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track,
> the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of
> HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of
> software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch.
>
> 2. Format Wars Don¹t Sell Players
> The only reason Sony¹s Playstation, Microsoft¹s Xbox and the Nintendo
> GameCube can sell so well simultaneously is because of the prevalence of
> excellent software titles. People want to buy the hardware just so they
> can play the software. This is not a format war ­ it is choice, just
> like Chevy and Ford (and just like the gaming systems, some people have
> one of each). The high definition DVD formats, however are really just
> the same source material packaged in two different wrappers- not to
> provide choice, mind you, but because the two camps simply are too
> greedy to combine forces, and not innovative enough to drive two truly
> separate products successfully. Take careful note ­ a format war is NOT
> competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs.
>
> 3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology
> Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The
> new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to
> instantly access tracks across an entire ³album². Convenience, not
> technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast
> forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again,
> convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike
> VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would
> not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats. Heck, the
> concept of a shiny plastic disc was new ­ and quite frankly, it was the
> coolest thing to hit the technological shelf since solid state
> technology. In comparison, the high definition DVD formats, save the
> color of the business side of the disc, look exactly the sameŠ and
> consumer confusion will surely follow.
>
> What do the new high definition DVD formats offer consumers over DVD?
> Technology and more storage. Is this enough? Not on your life.
> Consumers, most of whom rarely know how to properly configure their
> players or home theater systems, are perfectly content with their
> current DVD players (and indeed some have just jumped on board to DVD in
> the last several years). While the potential for more extras and
> alternate endings exists due to increased storage on the new media,
> there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new
> high definition DVD formats in large numbers.
>
> 4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated
> Studios are so conservative in their practices as to consistently miss
> out on market advances ­ even those that can make them money (ie. Why is
> a computer company running the world¹s most successful online music
> store?) The studios are not jumping on board the high definition DVD
> bandwagon just yet ­ and you can see the lack of titles to prove it. If
> the movie studios decided that HD DVD or Blu-ray (or both) was to be the
> next dominant format, it need only to flood the market with software
> titles and present a plan to roll back on DVD production over the next
> 10 years. Even though this would grant them the secure format that they
> seem to want (HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs promise to be much harder to rip
> or duplicate) there is no indication in the industry that this is taking
> place or even in the works. The studios are making money hand over fist
> with DVD they cannot seem to bring themselves to seriously initiate a
> new, unproven technology ­ even if it saves them from some other
> copyright headaches.
>
> Add to this the fact that new titles are coming out at $30 a pop (and
> this down from an initial $35/title) and you have a really hard sell for
> consumers who are used to $15 titles at Wal-mart and the large
> electronics chains.
>
> 5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World
> We have consistently heard it said that the Playstation3 will ³jump
> start² the market by flooding it with millions of gaming systems capable
> of handling Blu-ray Disc software. The problem with this theory is that
> the PS3 is not being marketed as a home theater component and, if
> current installations prove the rule, most will not be situated in the
> average consumer¹s living room. The result is that the PS3 will
> primarily be a *gasp* gaming system. Maybe I have a more traditional
> group of parents in my association of friends, but, taking into account
> #4 above, I do not think that Blu-ray will make any major leaps forward
> in market penetration as a home video format ­ at least not anytime
> soon.
>
> History is bearing this out, as the HTPC market, though driven hard by
> such manufacturers as Microsoft, Dell and HP, has struggled to find a
> place in the living room. Nearly every gaming system of the past: PS2,
> Xbox, and even the legendary 3DO system have been touted as ³set-top
> boxes² but in reality find themselves situated in more ³gaming-centric²
> environments playingŠ you guessed it, games.
>
> 6. Those Who Ignore HistoryŠ
> For years we¹ve heard about the evils of MP3 and illegal downloading.
> All the while the RIAA and music industry had two formats that could
> have prevented any illegal copying ­ at least for all but the most
> dedicated crackers: DVD-Audio and SACD. These formats proved to be
> higher quality than CD, presented much enhanced copy protection schemes
> and were easily used as alternative formats to CD. Yet both formats
> failed miserably to achieve any significant market penetration. Why?
> Without an artificial ³shove² from the record industry ­ which never
> materialized ­ technology alone is never enough to push a new format
> into the hands of consumers. In terms of convenience and ease of use,
> DVD-Audio and SACD offered nothing to consumers. In fact, they made
> listening to music more complex, since most hardware was unable to
> correctly decode and provide adequate bass management for the new
> formats.
>
> Could these formats have succeeded? Absolutely. If the recording
> industry had presented a plan to phase out CDs and the ³format war² had
> been avoided (simply by the industry picking one format over the other)
> we would all be using DVD-Audio players and illegal downloadable music
> would be mostly confined to analogue rips or older music. Is this a
> stretch? Perhaps, but only because history shows us that corporate greed
> causes most companies to miss the long term economical gains over a
> short term loss of licensing revenues.
>
> 7. People Want Technology that¹s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time
> For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being
> able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy
> Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference
> between that and his older SD TV is amazing ­ at least when he¹s
> watching DVDs. You see, that¹s the problem ­ and it¹s two-fold. While
> most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they¹re already
> impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing
> than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high
> definition discs.
>
> The other side of the coin is the lack of HD content available on TV ­
> and this is a biggie. While Billy Bob is impressed by his DVD player, he
> is dumbfounded by his cable TV ­ which actually looks worse than it did
> on his old set (mostly because it¹s bigger). You see, nobody told Billy
> Bob that he¹d have to get an antenna or subscribe to HD service from his
> cable/satellite provider. He was also not told that most of his favorite
> shows (Billy likes sitcoms and the Sci-Fi Channel) aren¹t yet available
> in HD, regardless of technology or service provider. As a result, many
> Americans are underwhelmed or feel like they got burned by HDTV. The
> last thing they¹re going to do is rush out and buy the next greatest
> thing.
>
> 8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)
> While some home theater audio- and videophiles have the money and
> inclination to rush out and buy the latest and greatest toys as soon as
> they are available, many more are becoming more cautious. Burned by
> 8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP
> HDTV) ­ these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard
> before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons. This leaves a
> shrunken market of even the bleeding-edge consumers, and that means even
> less sales to early-adopters.
>
> 9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn¹t Help
> I¹ll admit it, we¹re part of the ³problem² (though I¹d like to think
> we¹re saving consumers from making the next big mistake). An
> increasingly skeptical news media isn¹t buying into the hype of HD DVD
> and Blu-ray, especially not after wasting millions of editorial words on
> DVD-Audio and SACD, only to watch the software and technology dwindle
> into obscurity. Even after almost 6 years, most consumers continue to
> proffer puzzled looks when these audio formats are mentioned. The new
> DVD formats are getting plenty of press, mind you, but with the Toshiba
> flop and lack of software, the fact that the Emperor has no clothes (at
> least not yet) is hard to avoid.
>
> 10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?
> With Verizon, AOL, Time Warner and others jumping to provide HD
> on-demand services for the consumer it is a very likely event that high
> definition DVD will be something that isn¹t relevant in a
> service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer¹s recent push
> for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more
> interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality
> source material. Even with respect to high definition formats,
> downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high
> definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer
> model is being readied for testing in South Carolina¹s head-end for Time
> Warner Cable this year.
>
> So, while I certainly hope for the best, that¹s my story and I¹m
> stickin¹ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
> not an industry takeover.
>
> By Clint DeBoer
>
> http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php
> --
> "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
> They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
> and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush

On Tue, 27 Jun 2006 16:26:09 -0400, "J Rusnak" <>
wrote:
>Give it time! Some of the points you raised belowalso applied to the launch
>of DVD. From false starts to a skeptical mainstean press to prices (Players
>were $500! By year's end, you'll be able to get a Toshiba HD player for
>LESS than that) to lack of consumer awareness to conservative studios.
>(Actually, there might already be more HD discs on the market than there
>were DVDs at launch.)
>
>The real difference is that there was no DVD format battle. But for the
>average consumer, there's no HD battle that they know of either. Whichever
>format becomes "branded" in the public mind will be the winner, pricing
>aside. If everyone has heard of Blu-Ray but no one has heard of HD-DVD,
>guess which one they'll opt for?
>(This also applies to DVD-A and SACD...to this day, most people haven't
>heard of either of those formats.)
>
>It will come down to promotion and marketing. And Sony has the marketing
>and hardware support to probably pull ahead in that arena.

Editorial: The Secret HDMI Pact
By: César A. Berardini - "Cesar"
June 7th, 2006
The first thing I did when I got my hands on the HD-DVD drive mock-up
Microsoft had on display at E3 06, was to check its back side. When I
found that there was only a power socket and three USB ports, I
approached a Microsoft representative to ask where the HDMI port was,
or if they plan to release an HDMI Xbox 360 AV cable when the external
HD-DVD drive launches. His response was:

“If Sony is not using HDMI to play Blu-ray Disc movies, neither are
we.”

To which I immediately replied, “But the AACS spec demands the use of
HDMI or DVI in order to playback HD content at its full resolution”.
Before I finished my words, he repeated,

“If Sony is not…”

I was a little surprised that a Microsoft representative would provide
such an unsubstantial explanation for the lack of HDMI on the Xbox
360. Since when does Microsoft do things based on Sony’s actions?

The ITC Pact

Now, guess who are the founding members of the AACS LA committee? IBM,
Intel, Microsoft, Matsushita (Panasonic), Sony, Toshiba, The Walt
Disney Company, and Warner Bros. Studios. As you can see, there you
have the inventors of HD-DVD (Toshiba) and Blu-ray Disc (Sony), and
the manufacturers of the two next-generation consoles that will play
high-definition movies - the Microsoft Xbox 360 and the Sony
PlayStation 3.

As you can also see, of its eight founders, six of them are consumer
electronics manufacturers, with the other two being the only movie
studios on the committee. When you add to that the fact that one of
those manufacturers (Sony) also owns several movie studios including
Columbia, Tri-Star and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, you realize who has the
ball in their court.

These CE manufacturers, whose business is to sell high-definition
movie players, and in the case of Sony and Toshiba, also impose their
next-generation DVD formats, know that many consumers around the world
purchased HD televisions that lack HDMI interfaces. This is a fact
that simply can’t be ignored, especially when they also manufacture
HDTV displays! Telling consumers that their HDTV sets will not be able
to play HD movies at full resolution because they lack a HDMI input,
would be a total disaster.

So, if the Image Constrain Token implementation is optional, why not
keep passing the buck a few more years until high-definition
televisions become affordable and include a HDMI connector as a
standard input? That would allow existing owners of HDTVs that lack
HDMI inputs to play HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc movies using component
video without having to watch a downgraded image.

Avoiding the use of the Image Constraint Token is a win-win situation
for the users, all the CE manufacturers, and even if a few movie
studios aren’t happy with the possibility of their movies being copied
over analog connections, most of them have expressed their
disagreement towards using the ICT.

The HDMI Pact

This pact between Hollywood and consumer electronic manufacturers
might never be officially announced and all the parties involved will
probably offer the classic “no comment” line. It’s even possible that
after establishing that secret pact at the AACS LA, Sony and Microsoft
had their own HDMI-related agreements.

Since the pact between Hollywood studios and CE manufacturers is
rumored to postpone the use of the Image Constraint Token until 2010
(possibly until 2012), neither the Xbox 360 nor the PlayStation 3 will
need a HDMI connector since consoles’ lifecycles are usually five
years.

By 2010, definitely by 2012, the successor to the Xbox 360 and
PlayStation 3 will have already arrived and Microsoft and Sony will
have included a HDMI connector in those next-next-generation systems,
but in the meantime, there is no need to use HDMI in order to play
high-definition movies at their maximum resolution. That’s why Sony
can offer a model without HDMI and clarify that it will still be able
to playback Blu-ray Disc movies without any image degradation.
Microsoft has followed suit.

If you were expecting a first-party HDMI cable for the Xbox 360, well
my friend, I’m sorry to inform you that it might never happen.

Be happy for the fact that you won’t need a new HDTV to watch HD-DVD
on your Xbox 360 and Blu-ray Disc movies on your PlayStation 3. As for
the fact that the Xbox 360 won’t have an HDMI cable, well… welcome to
the HD Era.

Editorial: The Secret HDMI Pact
By: César A. Berardini - "Cesar"
June 7th, 2006
The first thing I did when I got my hands on the HD-DVD drive mock-up
Microsoft had on display at E3 06, was to check its back side. When I
found that there was only a power socket and three USB ports, I
approached a Microsoft representative to ask where the HDMI port was,
or if they plan to release an HDMI Xbox 360 AV cable when the external
HD-DVD drive launches. His response was:

“If Sony is not using HDMI to play Blu-ray Disc movies, neither are
we.”

To which I immediately replied, “But the AACS spec demands the use of
HDMI or DVI in order to playback HD content at its full resolution”.
Before I finished my words, he repeated,

“If Sony is not…”

I was a little surprised that a Microsoft representative would provide
such an unsubstantial explanation for the lack of HDMI on the Xbox
360. Since when does Microsoft do things based on Sony’s actions?

The ITC Pact

Now, guess who are the founding members of the AACS LA committee? IBM,
Intel, Microsoft, Matsushita (Panasonic), Sony, Toshiba, The Walt
Disney Company, and Warner Bros. Studios. As you can see, there you
have the inventors of HD-DVD (Toshiba) and Blu-ray Disc (Sony), and
the manufacturers of the two next-generation consoles that will play
high-definition movies - the Microsoft Xbox 360 and the Sony
PlayStation 3.

As you can also see, of its eight founders, six of them are consumer
electronics manufacturers, with the other two being the only movie
studios on the committee. When you add to that the fact that one of
those manufacturers (Sony) also owns several movie studios including
Columbia, Tri-Star and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, you realize who has the
ball in their court.

These CE manufacturers, whose business is to sell high-definition
movie players, and in the case of Sony and Toshiba, also impose their
next-generation DVD formats, know that many consumers around the world
purchased HD televisions that lack HDMI interfaces. This is a fact
that simply can’t be ignored, especially when they also manufacture
HDTV displays! Telling consumers that their HDTV sets will not be able
to play HD movies at full resolution because they lack a HDMI input,
would be a total disaster.

So, if the Image Constrain Token implementation is optional, why not
keep passing the buck a few more years until high-definition
televisions become affordable and include a HDMI connector as a
standard input? That would allow existing owners of HDTVs that lack
HDMI inputs to play HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc movies using component
video without having to watch a downgraded image.

Avoiding the use of the Image Constraint Token is a win-win situation
for the users, all the CE manufacturers, and even if a few movie
studios aren’t happy with the possibility of their movies being copied
over analog connections, most of them have expressed their
disagreement towards using the ICT.

The HDMI Pact

This pact between Hollywood and consumer electronic manufacturers
might never be officially announced and all the parties involved will
probably offer the classic “no comment” line. It’s even possible that
after establishing that secret pact at the AACS LA, Sony and Microsoft
had their own HDMI-related agreements.

Since the pact between Hollywood studios and CE manufacturers is
rumored to postpone the use of the Image Constraint Token until 2010
(possibly until 2012), neither the Xbox 360 nor the PlayStation 3 will
need a HDMI connector since consoles’ lifecycles are usually five
years.

By 2010, definitely by 2012, the successor to the Xbox 360 and
PlayStation 3 will have already arrived and Microsoft and Sony will
have included a HDMI connector in those next-next-generation systems,
but in the meantime, there is no need to use HDMI in order to play
high-definition movies at their maximum resolution. That’s why Sony
can offer a model without HDMI and clarify that it will still be able
to playback Blu-ray Disc movies without any image degradation.
Microsoft has followed suit.

If you were expecting a first-party HDMI cable for the Xbox 360, well
my friend, I’m sorry to inform you that it might never happen.

Be happy for the fact that you won’t need a new HDTV to watch HD-DVD
on your Xbox 360 and Blu-ray Disc movies on your PlayStation 3. As for
the fact that the Xbox 360 won’t have an HDMI cable, well… welcome to
the HD Era.

On Wed, 28 Jun 2006 05:46:25 GMT, 123 <> wrote:
>Be happy for the fact that you won’t need a new HDTV to watch HD-DVD
>on your Xbox 360 and Blu-ray Disc movies on your PlayStation 3. As for
>the fact that the Xbox 360 won’t have an HDMI cable, well… welcome to
>the HD Era.

I am in the HD era for gaming. I couldn't give two hoots for HD movies
right now, and when I do, I won't be playing them on a console.
--
Andrew, contact via http://interpleb.googlepages.com
Help make Usenet a better place: English is read downwards,
please don't top post. Trim replies to quote only relevant text.
Check groups.google.com before asking an obvious question.

"Roy L. Fuchs" <> wrote in message
news:...
> On Wed, 28 Jun 2006 05:43:51 GMT, 123 <> Gave us:
>
>>DVD never had such limitations on it which is why its so popular.
>
>
> DVD was never resolved so much that the studios cared. Now, they do.
> Also, the means was not available then as it is now.
>
> Get a clue.
>
> Leave to a rip off retard to make such a stupid remark. You are that
> retard.

You use the retard remark so often it continually proves, without any shadow
of a doubt, that you are the superior prime example.

On Wed, 28 Jun 2006 06:59:29 GMT, Roy L. Fuchs
<> wrote:
>On Wed, 28 Jun 2006 05:43:51 GMT, 123 <> Gave us:
>
>>DVD never had such limitations on it which is why its so popular.
>
>
> DVD was never resolved so much that the studios cared. Now, they do.
>Also, the means was not available then as it is now.

You have no idea. Before dvd there was something called vhs with macro
copy protection which was also placed on dvd along with other copy
protection.
>
> Get a clue.
>
> Leave to a rip off retard to make such a stupid remark. You are that
>retard.

Fact remains the new copy protection does not look like it will be
cracked and even if it is it can be stopped pretty quickly.

123 wrote:
> Read up on the guidelines with the service provider you are with.
>
>
> I have sent an official complaint to your service provider. They have
> said they will look into this matter and advise for others to send
> complaints to -

That will not stop immature fuckwits like DARKMATTER/Roy L. Fuchs one
bit. HTH.

Guest

> China MANUFACTURES products. They get designed elsewhere, and are
> owned by companies centered elsewhere, so the "racket" you jack off at
> the mouth about does NOT have ANYTHING to do with China.

Correct .... I said "manufactured" moron, and whether the
industrial-strength trash asia produces is conceived elsewhere or not,
the result has everything to do with the poor quality that consumer
stumps like you stand behind.

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