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Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.

Pennington had 1 good season and 1 below average season and a partial season in which his peripherals look good but his totals look bad.

In 2010: Pennington was credited with 3.9 fWAR. He hit .319/.368 (OBP/SLG) for a .308 wOBA which was 9% below league average.
In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.

How about his defense?
YEAR: UZR
2010: 8.8
2011: -6.1
2012: 10.1

He had 2 good years and 1 bad year. Defensive stats are more fickle than hitting stats so take them with a grain of salt. He's generally regarded as a good fielder. Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report rated him as a 3.9 out of 5. If we average his 3 years of defense, we get (8.8-6.1+10.1) 4.3. A 'good' defender is usually considered 5 - 10 runs above average. It's possible he's a good defender who had a bad year in 2011, players have bad years offensively, they can have bad ones defensively as well.

Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.

Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.

What in my 'analysis' do you disagree with?

I specifically indicated that he has not regressed

It's almost impossible for Pennington to be a .300 hitter with his K rate.

Assume 600 plate appearances.
Pennington K's about 19% of the time and walks about 8% of the time.
In those 600 PA's Pennington would K 114 times and walk 48 times.
Taking the 48 BB's away from the PA's leaves 552 at bats (we'll ignore HPB, SF, SH, etc).
Take away the 114 K's. That leaves 438 balls in play.

Pennington hits about 6 HR's per year. Take those out of the balls in play (438-6). That leaves 432 balls in play.

What would he have to hit on those 432 balls in play to hit .300?
Remember that he has 114 K's which add to his at bats and 6 home runs which also add to his at bats
That's 552 at bats.
.300 * 552 = 166 hits.
6 are home runs.
That means he needs 160 hits on the 432 balls in play.
160/432 = .370
He'd need a .370 BABIP to hit .300.

His career BABIP is .315

League average BABIP is around .290

Highly unlikely he'll ever be a .300 hitter unless he cuts down on his K's or adds a bunch of home runs.

I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming. We'll have to see his production play out another year so we can trend it.
Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.

I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming.

So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.

Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.

Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.

"Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.

Stephen Drew signed a one year contract with the Red Soxs for 9 million. A 2.5 million more than Nakajima's 2 year contract with the A's. I'm rather sceptical about how Japanese profis fare here.

Matsui Slumpsui didn't help much.

Cliff Pennington did get clutch hits, despite an off year, and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012. All these unproductive hits in low pressure situations in 2010 and 2011 didn't help much. I liked Ryan Sweeney's near .300 batting averages, but that was a dead end in overall team production. I'm not sold on Nakajima, but it looks like there's no one else to plug the ss gap. Cross your fingers!

I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. – Dusty Baker.

So much for that... lesson learned I guess. But hey, at least we're making the playoffs!

Yeah, it is ridiculous how much teams are having to pay even to negotiate woth some of these cats over there. Then they have to draw up a lucrative contract on top of it! Crazy. Yu Darvish is working out here OK, though it looked a little iffy early on last year for some Ranger fans. The position players are a big gamble, too. Kosuke Fukodome was mentioned above, but Kaz Matsui, So Taguchi and a few others have been little more than bench guys. There was that 1Bman from Korea not long ago, he played for the Cubs and Dodgers, I think his name was Hee Seop Choi, and he never panned out either! Oh well, worth the shot. The A's are kicking butt again, and I like it!

"Roger told me that he wanted to prove to the Yankees that he could play on another winner. He had a great Series." -- Hal Woodeshick, Cardinals reliever on the 1967 World Series champion squad, talking about right fielder Roger Maris. Maris hit .385/.433/.583 (10 for 26, 1 double, 1 HR) in the '67 Series, and set a Cardinals franchise record for 7 RBI in a World Series.

There was that 1Bman from Korea not long ago, he played for the Cubs and Dodgers, I think his name was Hee Seop Choi, and he never panned out either! Oh well, worth the shot. The A's are kicking butt again, and I like it!

A name from the recent past. I was watching a game that was nationally televised and a hitter hit a soft floater about 15 feet in the air between the mound and first base. Choi and Kerry Wood both went for it and Kerry did a faceplant (at least it looked that way at first) into Choi's ribs. Remember, as much as Choi was looked at to be a decent signing, Wood had the potential to be a true ace. I thought for sure Kerry would be down for the count, but Choi wasn't moving. They had to bring an ambulance onto the field and take Choi to the hospital. I believe he came back but played sporadically during the rest of the year. He played a couple more seasons, but had to shut things down - at least that's what I remember.

"Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers