Country Forecast France Updater

The president, Fran&ccedil;ois Hollande, will remain in office until 2017. Despite this fixed electoral timetable, the president is under continuing political pressure. He briefly regained some ground in early 2015, as his shift to a reformist economic policy began to gain some traction, notably with the passage of a modest package of economic reforms in February. However, there is no prospect of him rehabilitating his reputation before the 2017 presidential election.

The prospects of Mr Hollande's Parti socialiste (PS) are further clouded by signs of renewed vigour in the main opposition party, les R&eacute;publicains-formerly named Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP)-following a period of chaotic in-fighting in the wake of its defeat in the 2012 presidential election. Les R&eacute;publicains' resounding victory in local elections held in March 2015 was a significant boost for the party and for its leader, the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who led the party's campaign and who hopes to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

Given the president's weakness and the pattern of election results in recent decades, the centre right is set to take office again in 2017. The Economist Intelligence Unit's forecast is for les R&eacute;publicains to win the presidency, with a former prime minister, Alain Jupp&eacute;, as its candidate. However, Mr Sarkozy has strong support in the party. In our view, a presidential victory for the far-right Front national (FN) is unrealistic-supporters of the two mainstream parties would co-operate to ensure its defeat-but we expect the FN to push the PS into third place, progressing to the second round of voting, against les R&eacute;publicains.