News from the Votemaster

There has been a lot of
speculation
in the media of late about what is going to happen if Rick Santorum defeats Mitt Romney in Michigan on Feb. 28.
In reality, there will be a lot of moaning and groaning from Republican quarters about how this is a bad thing,
but it is unlikely anything concrete will happen until a week later, when 10 states vote on super Tuesday, March 6.
If Romney wins only Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virgina (where Gingrich and Santorum aren't on the ballot), panic
will break out among party leaders and the cry for a white knight will become deafening. Only it is not going to
happen because it is too late. Here is the list of
filing deadlines
for March and later, including all the caucuses,
which usually do not have a filing deadline.

State

Delegates

Voting Date

Type

Filing deadline

Connecticut

28

April 24, 2012

Primary

March 2, 2012

Washington

43

March 3, 2012

Caucus

March 3, 2012

Oregon

28

May 15, 2012

Primary

March 6, 2012

Alaska

27

March 6, 2012

Caucus

March 6, 2012

Idaho

32

March 6, 2012

Caucus

March 6, 2012

North Dakota

28

March 6, 2012

Caucus

March 6, 2012

Nebraska

35

May 15, 2012

Primary

March 7, 2012

Guam

9

March 10, 2012

Caucus

March 10, 2012

Kansas

40

March 10, 2012

Caucus

March 10, 2012

Virgin Islands

9

March 10, 2012

Caucus

March 10, 2012

Wyoming

29

March 10, 2012

Caucus

March 10, 2012

Montana

26

June 5, 2012

Primary

March 12, 2012

American Samoa

9

March 13, 2012

Caucus

March 13, 2012

Hawaii

20

March 13, 2012

Caucus

March 13, 2012

Utah

40

June 26, 2012

Primary

March 15, 2012

New Mexico

23

June 5, 2012

Primary

March 16, 2012

Missouri

52

March 17, 2012

Caucus

March 17, 2012

California

172

June 5, 2012

Primary

March 23, 2012

South Dakota

28

June 5, 2012

Primary

March 27, 2012

New Jersey

50

June 5, 2012

Primary

April 2, 2012

Texas

155

May 29, 2012

Primary

?

If some other candidate jumped in on Feb. 29, the day after the Michigan and Arizona primaries and magically
qualified for all the remaining primaries and got all the delegates, he or she would get 883 delegates, far short
of the 1144 needed to win the nomination. And such a scenario is completely unrealistic because (1) it takes weeks to
collect the signatures to qualify to get on the ballot and (2) the events before April 1 use some form of
proportional allocation of delegates, so to get 100% of the delegates from, say, Idaho, the new candidate would have
to get 100% of the votes at the caucus, which is pretty unlikely.
Realistically, if a candidate with close to 100% name recognition (that's you Mike Huckabee and you Sarah Palin)
were to jump in on March 7 and spend two weeks qualifying for the remaining states, the only primaries he or she
would make are California, South Dakota, New Jersey, and Texas (whose filing date is up in the air until the court
cases about redistricting there have been settled). Even a clean sweep of all those states would yield only 405
delegates, about a third of what is needed.

Of course, if a new candidate emerged and did very well, it is possible that no candidate would have enough
delegates to win on the first ballot, in which case all delegates would be freed to vote their consciences on the
second ballot and anything could happen.
Now consider this arithmetic from the point of view of Huckabee or Palin. You jump into the race on March 7 and
work your tail off for 6 months only to have the party leaders anoint someone else in Tampa? Not an
attractive proposition.

Another name that has been bandied about as the savior is Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN), who has far less charisma
than Mitt Romney (yes, Virginia, that is possible) and whose wife and daughters are known to be against a run.
Also a possible candidate is Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), who is on record saying he is not ready for the job this
year.
In reality, there are not a lot of Republicans other than Huckabee and Palin who could become the instant front runner on
day 1. So, for better or worse, the field we have now is the field we are going to have.

Even if no candidate has 1144 votes on the first ballot (still an unlikely outcome at this point),
the Republicans will not have a
brokered convention
simply because there are no brokers any more.
In the old days, Speaker John Boehner and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell would get together in
a smoke-filled room and pick a candidate. But their choice, Mitt Romney, is already known, and they aren't
getting a lot of traction with him. So how could they pull someone out of thin air and expect the party to
go along with him or her?

If no candidate gets a majority on the first ballot, no one knows what might happen.
There are persistent
rumors
that some Ron Paul supporters are trying to get elected to the convention as Romney delegates. If they
succeed and there is a second ballot, they would be free to vote for Paul or any other candidate he favors from then
on. The possibility of such a stealth strategy is very real because in most caucus states, there are precinct,
county, congressional district, and state caucuses and anyone at the state caucus can run for RNC delegate.
Generally speaking, the people there don't know each other and anyone making a strong (but possibly fake) speech
for Romney could be elected to the convention as a Romney delegate. Such a candidate would probably vote for Romney on the
first ballot but then do Paul's bidding on subsequent ballots.

In fact, the situation is even worse than that. About 30 states have no law requiring convention delegates
to vote for the person they are pledged to, even on the first ballot. A person elected to the RNC as, say, a Romney
delegate in March, might have second thoughts about him in August, for example, if polls showed him losing to
President Obama in November. If such a delegate voted for someone else, even on the first ballot, there would be
no legal sanctions taken against him or her. Normally, one candidate has such an overwhelming lead in delegates
that a few faithless delegates don't matter, but this year it could.

Tomorrow CNN will host another debate between the four remaining Republican candidates in Mesa Arizona.
While Arizona is not hotly contested (Romney is expected to win it due to the substantial Mormon population
in northern Arizona), no doubt people in Michigan will be watching, too. It should be interesting to see if
Santorum and Romney really go after each other this time. This is the first debate held with Santorum in
the lead nationally.

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