Monday, July 31, 2017

In the short term, the House will give Democrats their best opportunity to prove they can make inroads despite the political hurdles. To win back control in the lower chamber, they will need to win Republican-held seats both in the suburbs and in small-town America. It’s not an either-or proposition. But if they fall short despite such a promising political environment, the longer-term ramifications for the party’s ability to regain congressional power are discouraging.

Just look at the Senate maps for the next two cycles. Republicans are likely to expand their majority next year even in a poor political environment because they’re hardly defending any seats next year. Even if they only win a few red-state races, their majority could easily be sustainable even beyond the next presidential election.

Consider: The Senate map for Democrats doesn’t get much friendlier in 2020. Most of the Republicans elected in the 2014 wave hail from conservative states that were once held by (now-extinct) moderate Democrats. Republicans will face challenges holding seats in North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa—but after that, the pickings are slim. Even if Republicans net just one Senate seat next year, their long-term future looks pretty good. (And Democrats won’t be able to blame gerrymandering for future Senate woes.)