Thursday, March 6, 2008

Hillary survived the battle of the Alamo and won the Battle of Tiffin!

As of now, Barack still leads Hillary by 96 delegates, with 505 more needed to clinch. On the other hand, if the disputed Michigan and Florida delegates were counted, Hillary would lead by around 32 delegates. Since each has a claim to be the front runner, don’t expect either one to drop out any time soon.

The big dates coming up are April 22, May 6, and May 20. The Ohio victory is very important for Hillary as half the remaining delegates to be selected are in states neighboring Ohio - Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia. If Hillary can sustain double digit wins in those states, that’s her best path to victory. While the party big shot super delegates may prove decisive, expect many of them to sit on the fence for the next several weeks to see what happens before making a commitment.

Date

State

Delegates

Remarks

Saturday,March 8

Wyoming

18

Caucus favors Barack

Tuesday,March 11

Mississippi

40

Beware the Ides of March. If Barack loses, suspect foul play by crossover Republicans.

Tuesday,April 22

Pennsylvania

188

A convincing win for Hillary would put the hurt on

Saturday,May 3

Guam

9

This caucus should be irrelevant

Tuesday,May 6

Indiana

84

Ohio neighbor could go for Hillary

Tuesday,May 6

North Carolina

134

Obama should win

Tuesday,May 13

West Virginia

39

Ohio neighbor could go for Hillary

Tuesday,May 20

Kentucky

60

Ohio neighbor could go for Hillary

Tuesday,May 20

Oregon

65

Obama should win

Tuesday,June 3

Montana

24

Big Sky could be the last best place

Tuesday,June 3

South Dakota

23

It’s a long road to Rushmore

Saturday,June 7

Puerto Rico

63

Embarrassing for Democrats if it goes this far, as Puerto Rico can’t vote in November but can send delegates to the Democratic convention

Total upcoming

-

747

Barack needs 67% to clinch, Hillary needs 80%. Otherwise, it will take super delegates or disputed delegates to win.

Uncommitted super-delegates

-

359

The 437 who have already pledged could be persuaded to change their minds

January 15

Michigan

156

Would have awarded around 90 for Hillary, 66 uncommitted as Barack foolishly took his name off the ballot too please Iowa and New Hampshire.

January 29

Florida

210

Would have awarded around 109 for Hillary, 71 for Obama, 20 for Edwards

Total disputed

-

366

Counting Michigan and Florida would raise the bar for nomination from 2025 to 2208 delegates