Daniel Knowles writes for the Economist about politics and economics and is @dlknowles on Twitter.

Boundary changes: five things to note

The axe has fallen. Assuming it gets through Parliament in 2013, by the end of the next General Election there will be 50 fewer MPs. Just as importantly, the seats left will be rather different, as tens of thousands of voters are moved from (mostly rural) populous constituencies to smaller urban ones. Overall, that should help the Conservatives, whose safest seats tend to be the biggest, by redistributing voters to more marginal seats. But for all Labour's talk of gerrymandering, it's not the big shift that makes this interesting – it's trying to predict the small changes by analysing council voting patterns to see who could benefit and who could lose. Here's what we can work out already:

1) Obviously,Nick Clegg's in trouble: Clegg's seat, Sheffield Hallam, has been abolished and replaced with a new seat, Sheffield West and Penistone, which will now include a fairly large chunk of the Penistone and Stocksbridge seat, a fairly safe Labour seat. If voting behaviour was the same in 2015 as in 2010, that could benefit the Lib Dems by shifting the balance in Nick Clegg's seat slightly against the Lib Dems but benefitting the party in neighbouring seats. But given that the voters who opted for Clegg in 2010 seem unlikely to choose to do so in 2015, that will be little comfort for the Lib Dem leader: an unfortunate exit just became a little bit more likely.

2) This is bad news for Lib Dems generally: Other than Liberal Scotland (not covered in the information released today), there are also problems for Chris Huhne, Vince Cable and Tim Farron, who will see their seats substantially altered. Lib Dem MPs are particularly dependent on local activists building up campaigning networks and good reputations. Those will now be worth much less. Huhne, for example, has lost half of his original seat and gained 39,000 voters from Winchester and Romsey & Southhampton North: that's 39,000 new voters Huhne's activists have to start cultivating.

3) Labour and Tory takeover fights: Meanwhile, George Osborne finds his Tatton seat split two ways between Macclesfield and the new seat of Northwich, while Ed Balls will have to fight with Hillary Benn for what's left of their West Yorkshire constituencies. Ken Clarke's Nottinghamshire seat is also being abolished, split four ways between other constituencies. There's no hint yet that he'll step down, but he's old enough to do so gracefully.

Where whole seats have been abolished, with no single MP obviously placed to take over, bitter takeover battles could ensue between MPs for their party's nomination. Many MPs will have to be relocated, causing awkward decisions for party leaderships: who gives up his place for George Osborne or Ed Balls? Undoubtedly, some MPs will be shifted up to the overcrowded Lords, and others will happily retire, but some might have to be forced out of safe seats to stand in newly made marginals or unwinnable seats. We could even see some MP-on-MP battles (i.e., politicians standing for their old areas as independents) especially if the Tory or Labour leadership uses this an opportunity to cull some less popular MPs. And what will the losers do in the meantime?

4) Tory Blair: Meanwhile, Tony Blair's Sedgefield constituency, once one of the safest Labour seats in the country, could become a Tory seat at it incorporates new bits of Stockton South. Which would allow Blair to stand for it as a Tory, if he wants…

5) One that didn't change: David Cameron's Witney constituency, in Oxfordshire, is essentially unchanged. What a surprise!