Monthly Archives: May 2011

I trudged wearily home yesterday night, chest hurting with each breath and cough, with a duffel bag on my back (now this lyrics sound familiar…). I called home only to be told to take the MRT home. And to clear the 4 flights of steps to the doorstep of my house, I winced my way through all of 5 minutes.

This marks the end of fieldcamp. This.

Field camp made me realise that I could run a fever while running between movement drill stations doing artillery drill; that I could march, blisters erupting on my toes and soles, for 8km in sun. It made me discover that digging the shellscrape was as tiring as digging through my homesick mind was painful. I didnâ€™t fall out, though at times I wanted to;there was once I just stood outside the medical tent, deliberating in my sick state if I should seek some medical help and the shelter from the relentless rain that accompanied it.

Upon retrospect I still do not know why I didnâ€™t immediately report sick and just heck all. It was a draining experience: having to layer cameo in slabs throughout the five days (a girlâ€™s worst nightmare, and probably the main reason why the fairer sex doesnâ€™t have to undergo conscription); having to high kneel whenever we went such that my knees turned angry red by the second day; having to comply with stricter discipline standards and bear punishments (including leopard crawling through freshly wetted loam for 50m in the freshly cold morning); having to endure not a night without a downpour or a day without gloomy skies; having to miss mum and dad and sis and home so acutely I just paused digging and sat down and teared.

It was one long lesson in resilience â€“ mentally I was emptied of rational thought, emotionally I was a train wreck, physically I bore boot blisters. Even returning to the company line was tough work, comprehending the senselessness of reaching coyline at 4pm but sleeping at 4am to do sundry, postponable items like polishing the rifle.

And my mum and dad was ever so pleasant with me as I raised my voice in indignation over the many exhorts to eat dinner, bathe or to bring the duffel bag in through the door. My mum gave me painkillers, flu, fever and other supplements. She fed me the spoon of cough serum.

(Mum and dad got down to helping me scrub the field pack when they realised I was just not up to it to do it myself. Can I seriously ask for more? Theyâ€™re not angels, but theyâ€™re angel enough for me. I love you mum and dad. <3)

And there’s rethinking about how this field camp will affect my chances of entering command school.

Most of those I know are in JC, and are aiming for command school. Plenty of us want to become Officers; a few want to become Sergeants. Of course itâ€™s good to want to lead in the SAF. But we should do a little rethinking on our motivation to become commanders.

So far the most outstanding reason has been personal achievement. The logic goes something like this: first, youâ€™re here for 2 years in a parallel universe from which you cannot leave; second, you donâ€™t understand military life fully so far; third, and however, you feel a distinct obligation to do your best in everything, and NS is something.

Itâ€™s the third component where the arguments tend to bend dubiously. We display a natural ambition to ascend any social ladder we see. But just because it is natural does not lend in any inherent purpose. A role placed before you as an opportunity to ascend and accelerate through the ranks does not mean you must pursue it.

There are people who are naturally placed and passionate to do so. They should pursue those roles. But officership shouldnâ€™t go to people who just want it for the sake of status, or who become unforgivably pretentious for a role they want for exclusively ego reasons.

I’ve just read that Warner Bros. will recut the last four minutes of “The Deathly Hollows: Part 2” and stretch it into seven films so fans can enjoy the Harry Potter franchise for another decade.Â Details here. Other than that, here is this week’s photo set, the first a tongue in cheek reflection of my opinion towards every day life, and the other, really funny adverts that definitely will not be seen in Singapore.

Ad agencyÂ Y & R has been menacing Amsterdam commuters with thisÂ series of roadside billboards depicting the progressive disrobing of a hairy and overweight man, with the tagline: â€œThe sooner you advertise here, the better.â€

â€œEconomy is the method by which we prepare today to afford the improvements of tomorrow.â€ Over the past century, as Calvin Coolidge, the 30th President of the United States, has rightfully pointed out, economics has become a very vital tool in our society, and in recent years, the rise of Asia has become, and still is, a topic much discussed.

Once labeled the White Manâ€™s burden, Asia is now a force to be reckoned with, both politically and economically. Some even argue that Asian powers such as India and China will eventually come to dominate the global political arena in the coming century. Indeed, the economic recession in 2008, coupled with Asiaâ€™s persistent and outstanding economic growth in recent years, has sparked off much debate over US dominance into the 21st century.

Is Asia indeed on the rise, and is this even a zero-sum game to begin with? As a crossroad between the East and the West, how should Singapore manage and capitalize on these opportunities presented to Asia? Let the Raffles Economic Forum answer these questions for us!

Event Details

Raffles Economic Forum 2011

9 July 2011 (Saturday)

Venue: Raffles Institution

Theme: The Rise of Asia

Guest-of-honour: Professor Kishore Mahbubani (Dean of the LKY School of Public Policy)

Programme

0900 Registration

0930 Opening Ceremony

1000 Keynote Lecture: The Rise of Asia

1100 Lecture: The Economic Recession

1200 Lunch

1330 Panel Discussion: The Rise of China, Promise or Peril?

1500 Debates Showcase: Should Singapore welcome the rise of China and India?

1630 Closing Ceremony

Sign-up Details

Interested participants should provide the following details by 27 May 2011:

1) Name

2) Class/School

3) NRIC no.

4) Dietary requirements

5) Contact number

6) E-mail address

Interested applicants should send the sign-up details to this email ([email protected]) by the stated deadline.Â It was also decided that applicants would be interested to note this event is recognized in the RD, under the Cognitive domain.

See how the image above doesn’t resonate with what I want to convey to you? That’s just me. My facade.

My words versus my thoughts.

My inner smirk versus my exterior smile.

I don’t understand you –

and you don’t understand me.

Let’s keep it that way.

And if you know what I mean, here are some links:
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-19512_7-10203174-233.html
http://ask.metafilter.com/165683/How-do-I-sync-my-iPhone-4-to-my-Mac-without-losing-my-saved-game-data

It seems that my blog, compared to yesteryears, is less wordy. More pictures, less well thought-out commentary. More emotion, less rational thought. Perhaps, in the army, I don’t feel an urge to express myself anymore. I had believed that the regimentation would be a stressful feature in BMT, and under stress, I use my blog as a creative outlet to destress.

Or perhaps I am just loathe to blog any more. The lack of time?

Argh, I can’t even shovel in coal to start up my train of thought >< I think I shall stop here today and prepare myself mentally for the BTP on Wednesday. YAWNS -o-

And rounding up this post are 2 pictures which resonate strongly with me (about the May 7 General Election): –

I’ve condensed just some of the stuff I read so far – and I’m only half done. The more I read the more I am convinced of the market’s view to short USD in the long run – even though I am long it for the short run. What the fed’s going to say later today is in my view highely unlikely to deviate from market expectations, and a lot of the plethora of USD-negative information has been priced in already, as you can see from the DXY chart, which really is at a point of inflexion now. In my view, the meeting later will leave with it more USD volatility rather than direction, and so I shall keep my positions relatively small and remain long for the short term, since the market is so lobsided right now. But if the fed gives us a USD-negative surprise (unlikely), and the DXY breaks the techincal support on the weekly chart, then I will consider closing out my USD longs and replacing the USD in my portfolio with other currencies.

The race to the bottom has started again. Consensus is rapidly adjusting to a slower speed for the U.S. economy in H1. Growth forecasts for 2011 are significantly weaker than hoped for at the end of last year, when the economy was benefitting from a degree of positive momentum and another round of fiscal stimulus raised hopes for stronger growth.

The past few weeks of data releases have largely disappointed and point toÂ anemic growth of 1.5% q/q annualized in Q1, compared with ourÂ previous estimateÂ of 2.5%,Â taking our annual growth forecast for 2011 to 2.4%.(We discuss our Q1 growth downgrade in detail in the forthcoming North America Focus.)

Higher gas prices are certainly weighing on discretionary spending. Confidence took a hit in Q1, and auto sales (which drove the robust pace of spending in Q4) slowed in March. Adjusting for higher prices, we estimate consumer spending rose by 2.1% in Q1, about half the pace of Q4, and headwinds from elevated gasoline prices are expected toÂ remain in placeÂ for some time. Construction looks very much weaker in Q1 (led by non-residential structures) and we project the boost to growth from the sector will be limited this year. Inventories likely had a significant positive effect on growth in Q1 after the low level of stocks at end-Q4, but the inventory cycle has now run its course. The contribution from net exports looks largely flat in 2011 and the outlook on the fiscal front has certainly weakened, given the increased federal bias toward fiscal austerity, in addition to the drag from state and local governments.

Final sales are poised slow to below 0.3% in Q1 and, given the slowdown, it is only natural to draw comparisons with summer 2010, when growth slowed significantly, the housing sector started to weaken, inflation slowed perilously and the eurozone crisis exacerbated a volatile environment where wealth destruction and anemic growth were hitting confidence hard. Today, the economy is a bit more resilientâ€”job creation has improved and core inflation appears to have bottomed. However, there is no lack of downside risks, including the housing double dip, the fiscal drag and the risks from external disruptions (such as events in Japan/MENA/pressure from oil and other commodities/stress from the EZ crisis, as detailed in our April â€œCross Asset Monthlyâ€ by the RGE Market Strategy Team).

Core inflation and inflation expectations have crept upward and could make for a difficult year for monetary policy makers (although, in our view, the upward pressure will be limited and core inflation will remain well below target). Fed officials have stepped up the hawkishness of their rhetoric, but speeches by the key FOMC members suggest the Fed will remain more concerned about growth risks. With theÂ IMFand consensus adjusting their growth projections downward, the Fed will once again play catch up.

For now, QE2 will come to an end this quarter, and the Fed is likely to maintain the size of its balance sheet for some time (more on this in a forthcoming RGE piece). We hold our view that the first rate hike will occur in Q3 2012. QE3 remains unlikely, but a further sustained growth slowdown that renews concerns of a growth dip (aÂ fat tail risk) could increase the probability.

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales Show Gain in March

Overview: In March, new home sales rose 11.1%, reaching 300,000 SAARâ€”after touching a newÂ record low, of 270,000, in February. In March, sales roseÂ in three of the four regions;Â with the biggest gain coming from the Northeast region.Â The average price of new homes sold continued to erode on a y/y basis, down 6.1%. Existing home salesÂ rose by 3.7% m/m toÂ 5.1Â million in March, after a 8.8%Â in dropÂ in February. The national median existing home sales price (NSA) fell back 5.9% y/y in March,Â a faster pace of decline thanÂ in February.Â Previously, the Pending Home Sales Indexâ€”a leading indicator of existing home sales based on contracts signed on homesâ€”showed a 2.1% m/m increaseÂ in February. (Contracts on homes are usually closed with a lag of 1 to 2 months, when they are recorded as existing home sales.) Following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit in April, the declines in home sales were substantial, giving way to some stabilization, only in late 2010. Early 2011 sales have been weak.

RGE View (Apr 25, 2011): We haveÂ maintained that we do not envisage a resurgence in housing demand in the near term,Â but we expect housing demand toÂ follow a sideways trajectory. The stabilization in new and existing home sales in March, after sharp drops in February, is in line with this view. The existing homes market will see greater improvementÂ for the remainder of 2011, benefitting from discounts on distressed properties (40% of total sales in March involved distressed properties; 35% were all cash sales which involve a price discount). The new homes market will also see competitive deflation, but will lag behind.Â A modest recovery in the labor market in 2011 will support housing demand, and given household formation, some excess inventory will get absorbed in 2011â€”though with consumer income still weak, household budgets and consumer confidence stretched by gasoline prices, housing demand will recover slowly. We expect new home sales to average around 320,000 for the year.

U.S. FOMC Minutes: No Change to QE2, Stress on Inflation Expectations and Divergent Opinions on Exit

Overview The evidence of some divergent views among FOMC members has been prominent, with some regional Fed presidents delivering hawkish speeches, while speeches by New York Fed President William Dudley, Fed governor Janet Yellen provided some counter-hawkish perspective. The divergence was also evident in the March FOMC meeting minutes, where a few participants indicated “a move toward less-accommodative monetary policy this year; a few others noted that exceptional policy accommodation could be appropriate beyond 2011.” TheÂ meeting minutes alsoÂ indicated that the ongoing large-scaleÂ asset purchase programÂ (QE2) would not be tapered towards its completion, that the economic recovery was on a firmer footing and that the labor market was gradually improving.Â The effects of commodity prices on headline inflation were seen to be “transitory,”Â thoughÂ commodity prices posed both upside risks to the outlook for inflation and downside risks to consumption and investment growth.Â Along with QE2 purchases, theÂ committee retained the pledge for exceptionally low levels of the Fed funds rate for “an extended period.” The Fed’s second large-scale asset purchase program, “QE2,”Â involving the purchase of US$600 billion in longer-term Treasurys by the end of Q2 2011, was announced at the November FOMC meeting.

RGE View (Apr 11, 2011): Recent speeches and theÂ March FOMC meeting minutes have highlightedÂ some divergence among Fed officials about the appropriateness of policy accomodation after QE2, some stressing upside risks to inflation while Yellen and Dudley touched on downside risks to consumption and investment.Â FOMCÂ minutes also indicatedÂ there appears to be a debate on the extent and relevance of resource slack for determining inflation, while theÂ importance of monitoring inflation expectations was stressed. Despite the greater prevalence of hawkish rhetoric recently,Â as at least some of theÂ fiscal-policy-induced boost to household income may be allowed expire in 2012, we envision no premature broad-based discussion of monetary policyÂ withdrawal. We expect that the Fed will maintainÂ the size of its balance sheet after fully completing QE2. The Fed may decide to phase out the reinvestment of the runoff on itsÂ securities holdingsÂ in late Q3.Â GivenÂ our still-subdued core inflation forecasts (1% in 2011)Â and an improved, but still subdued, employment outlook, RGE estimatesÂ no active policy tightening through Q2 2012.

Overview: Oil prices fell by over US$6 a barrel on April 11 and 12 amid warnings that the high price of oil does not reflect easing supply-demand fundamentals; OPEC believe a US$15 to US$20 a barrel premium is attached to the price of crude. Prices have risen as political unrest continues to grip the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)â€”WTI had been trading at over US$111 a barrel, and Brent at US$123 a barrel as of April 8. A protracted conflict in Libya looks likely as Muammar Qadhafi’s troops battle rebel forces for oil fields and key terminals, damaging infrastructure. Libya’s sweet, light crude exports declined by 75% or 995,000 barrels in March, and OPEC production also declined despite production boosts by member countries, led by Saudi Arabia, which ultimately failed to cover the Libyan shortfall. Political unrest in MENA countries is ensuring a fear premium remains attached to the price of crude. Prior to events in MENA, oil prices had been trending downward on news of increased OPEC production and verbal intervention by Saudi Arabia in an attempt to ward off US$100 oil.

RGE View (Apr 8, 2011): Continued unrest in MENA has led us to increase our crude price forecasts for the year to US$98/barrel for WTI, and US$110/barrel for Brent. We expect the oil markets to remain highly volatile. The ongoing civil war in Libya is likely to disrupt oil supply for a number of months. Rebel oil exports are unreliable due to fighting at key oil terminals and fields. Damage to oil infrastructure will ensure supply disruption even if a peaceful resolution is found. Further, OPEC’s inability to cover the supply shortfall is worrying, especially in light of violence in the Niger Delta and strikes in Gabonâ€”all of which, along with Libya, supply light sweet crude, the preferred blend of European refineries. Even with resumption of supply, a fear premium is likely to remain attached to the price of crude, with unprecedentedÂ political unrest across MENA. Strong global liquidity has enabled the crude oil markets to attract additional investments globally, and a weak U.S. dollar continues to support the energy markets. Oversupply at Cushing will ensure that the spread between WTI and Brent remains in the short term.

Price Correction and the Fear/Risk/Speculation Premium

Oil prices corrected by nearly US$6 a barrel on April 11 and 12. In a April 12 research note, Goldman Sachs’s Chief Energy Analyst David Greely said that the recent rally in oil prices was overdone: “While prices are back at levels of spring 2008, supply-demand fundamentals are significantly less tight… we believe that the market will experience a substantial correction toward our $105 a barrel near-term target for Brent crude oil in coming months.” Goldman had previously noted that “nascent signs of demand destruction in the United States,” the possibility of a Libya ceasefire, and no sign of supply disruptions in Nigeria despite elections, could all put downward pressure on oil prices, according to Reuters.

Since trouble erupted in Egypt on January 25, net-long NYMEX WTI managed money positions have increased by 64% from 172,013 to 281,579, despite an 8% decline in week ending April 12. RGE expects further corrections to the price of oil, in line with our WTI forecast of US$98 a barrel for the year (year-to-date WTI has averaged US$97 a barrel), as the risk premium diminishes; Â the risk of contagion and further supply shocks within MENA appears to have declined with the region in an unstable stalemate.

Danske Bank, in their Commodities Quarterly report released on April 19, believe that crude oils “geopolitical risk premium” is set to stay at an elevated level in 2011, and will be priced out gradually in 2012. They put a fair value price to Brent of US$100 a barrel, which results in a US$20 a barrel risk premium. They believe the unpredictable situation in MENA countries means further escalation of the crisis cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, OPEC’s spare capacity is already under pressure. They believe a further 4mb/d of crude could potentially be at risk in the region, excluding Iran and Saudi Arabia. Danske forecast Brent oil prices to trade in a US$100-130 barrel range in 2011 with an average of USD$116 a barrel with risk tilted to the upside. In 2012, they expect Brent to average US$119 a barrel.AnalysisÂ Danske Research Commodities QuarterlyÂ Apr 19, 2011Rising energy costs support metals and grains alike

OPEC’s Secretary General, Abdalla El-Badri, has said that crude prices include a premium of US$15 to US$20 a barrel and that the market is adequately suppliedâ€”although not oversupplied, according to Bloomberg on April 18.

In a March 21 research note, Goldman estimated that every one million barrelsÂ of oil held by speculators contributes to an 8 to 10% rise in the oil price. From mid-February to late March US$10 was added to the risk premium. Reuters put the risk premium on WTI crude at between US$21.40 and US$26.75/barrel, as of April 12.

Danske Bank believe that the current market, as of February 28, 2011, attaches a risk premium of US$20 to the price of a barrel of Brent. The fair value price should be close to US$90 to US$95 a barrel. They use a fair value model based on U.S. stocks, OECD and Chinese industrial production, EUR/USD and speculative positioning.