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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

When I started this project of tracking what parties were running what women, I did not think it would be that useful. I felt like I was spinning my wheels and wasting time to satisfy my own personal curiosity. Several hours in, I just could not stop myself. But now, the hard work is paying off. See my post here Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

My amazing research assistant Heba Galal and I have translated the electoral lists of various parties, which allows us to evaluate the chances that women will be elected. Our first cut was to see which parties had women in the top half of their lists. i.e. if they are running 8 people on the list, do they women in slots 1-4. If they are running 12 people on the list, do they have women in slots 1-6, and so forth. A second cut is to see how many women total the parties are running. That may tell you something about the overall attitude of women in the party.

No women have been elected from the single winner system. I repeat, not one single woman has won as an independent.

In a counterintuitive result, there may be some women from the lists, and they are almost absolutely certain to be from the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. The FJP did so well in these elections, that in many locations, they got down to number 4 on their list, which means some women will be elected. It is also possible that women could be elected from Al Wafd. Their lists are not in good shape though, which makes it very difficult to analyze them, but I will try.

El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists.

The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)

It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement. All women on the Al Nour list are on the bottom two slots.

The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.

The published lists by Al Wafd are not in good shape. Accordingly, we are still analyzing them as quickly as possible. Women from Al Wafd might make it if they are ranked 1 or 2.

Here is a preliminary analysis of where women have a chance. A more fine grained analysis will follow.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Not very much attention is given to the "other" in examinations of Egypt. Of course, we have found out in the past year that women, although they are 50% of the population, are treated like the other in Egypt.

But there are other groups that deserve attention. I am particularly concerned that at least some of these groups receive proper representation in the upcoming efforts to design Egypt's new constitution.

Under President Gamal Abdel Nasser, most European groups left, fled or were driven out. Egypt used to have a sizeable Greek, and Jewish population, particularly in Alexandria,but they are mostly gone. One can see beautiful, yet empty, shuttered and locked synagogues in Old Cairo and in Old Alexandria. There is some Jewish population in Egypt, but it is incredibly small, and hard to measure, due to the intense anti-zionist sentiment here. The American-Israeli cooperative Enterprise estimates their numbers at less than 100 in 2004.

Another group we do not hear much about are the Baha'i. The Bahai are a religious group who recognize Bahaullah as their prophet. They have a very nice message about the unity of humankind. However, they are fiercely oppressed in Egypt. They are not allowed to have ID cards showing their religion. (Although I think the fact that ID cards show your religion is a bad one in principle.) The only religions you are allowed to list on your IDs include Jewish, Islam and Christianity. As a result, many Bahai have difficulty getting birth certificates, passports, and other crucial documents. They are routinely discriminated against and stigmatized. They probably number around 5000, or less.

I have devoted many pages to the persecution of Copts and other Christians. Approximately 9 percent of the Egyptian population are Coptic Christians. Coptic Christians are one the oldest groups in Egypt. The Pharaonic temples have evidence of Church activity in them. At one point, far before the advent of Islam, all of Egypt was officially Christian. The holy family is said to have sojourned through Egypt, and several monasteries throughout Cairo, Upper Egypt, and the Sinai attest to this.

There is significant discrimination against Copts. People are discriminated against in employment, and being a Christian may be a bar to promotion in majority settings. Churches can only be built with permits, which must be applied for from the government. Recent clashes in Imbaba and Maspero have been touched off in part around conflict regarding Church building. Here are some materials regarding Copts and Maspero. Further, marriage between Christian men and Muslim women is forbidden, and can touch off violence in rural areas. In the ongoing election, people have campaigned against the Kotla by saying that it is the "Christian party." One of the most poignant moments I have experienced in Egypt was when I tried to comfort one of my colleagues after the Maspero Massacre, and she burst into tears, as did then I, as we embraced.

The Egyptian majority also do not like Shia Muslims very much. Regardless of the size of these small religious communities, their protection requires a secular state that ensures religious protection for minorities.

I have fallen in love with the Nubian people during my time in Egypt. They have their own language, and a distinct architecture and culture. There land was largely submerged when Lake Nasser was created as part of the Aswan Dam. They were relocated to villages. The novel Dongola, and another book, The Nubian Women of West Aswan, give some insight into their plight. Please look at my page on Books@Egypt for more details. One of the most beautiful and scenic things I have seen during my time in Egypt was a cute Nubian village along the Nile in Aswan. Although the Nubian dynasty of the Pharaos was one of the most successful Egypt has ever seen, the plight of the Nubian people currently reminds me of the plight of the Native Americans in the United States.

I also am concerned that the Siwans, the Bedouins, and other indigenous tribal people have a say in the upcoming Egyptian constitutional process.

Monday, December 26, 2011

I hope that everyone is enjoying the holidays in their own fashion. I spent the morning and lunch with Bahai and Muslim friends and their children in my apartment in Rehab City in Cairo. We then spent the late afternoon with Christian friends in Maadi, Cairo. My friends in Maadi had a beautiful Christmas tree decorated with bells, and ornaments and lights. It was really nice to get together around food, with minimal presents, and just a lot of nice people and holiday cheer.

The protest for women's rights in Tahrir on Friday the 23rd of December was quite successful. At least 4000 people attended. No one was killed, and no one was injured. Sarah Carr reports that people chanted "The women of Egypt are a red line."

Jaadaliya reports that prominent blogger Alaa Ebd Al Fattah was released from prison on Christmas. During his time in custody, his first child Khaled was born. All defendants in the Maspero case have been released this month. That is an excellent present of free speech for Christmas. I also heard this news from my medical doctor, whom I visited this morning, because my son was sick.

I asked my doctor how his Christmas was. He told me that he and his family did his best to enjoy, despite the difficult circumstances. He said he was really shocked about the violence the military had shown against civilians and women recently.

The Copts in Egypt celebrate their Christmas on January 7th, the date Christianity refers to as the epiphany, or the 12th day of Christmas. Apparently, this corresponds to the 29th day of the Coptic Month Kiohk. There is a small difference between the Coptic calendar and the Gregorian calendar.

As for me, I am praying for peace and fairly conducted elections in the New Year.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Women's rights are at the forefront of the revolution. I am following the election closely, but so far, no woman has been elected from the party lists. I am in close contact with people from UNDP, as well as with people from various political parties, and as soon as I get a confirmation, I will publish the names of any women elected.

Otherwise, you may have heard that a female protester--who was veiled-- was beaten and stripped in the street. Another elderly woman was seen threatened by a police truncheon. It is no secret that Egypt has some concerns around the treatment of women. In addition, women protesters were subjected to torture in the form of virginity tests in March. Sexual harassment is rampant, and we see that only three women are represented in Ganzouri's cabinet.

Hilary Clinton, Secretary of State of the United States, has expressed her deep concerns and outrage about this violence against women.

According to Al Masry Al Youm, "Nineteen political groups and several activists have called on Egyptians to attend a mass demonstration in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday under the slogan 'The free women of Egypt — restoring honor.'"

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Well with regard to the elections results, there is good news and there is bad news.

Let's start with the less than perfect news first. The FJP and Al Nour continue to lead in the second phase of the People's Assembly elections.

Some bad news is that there is fire in Tahrir. My father was just there. Apparently, some of the field hospitals have been attacked, and twitter is reporting that surgeons are needed. There is a big march to bury Sheikh Emmad Effat, but the Salafis are not present.

The good news is that the Egyptian Bloc is retaining their position as a solid third. In a first past the post system, like in the US, third does not sound good. But in a partially list based system, third gives the liberal and secular Egyptian Bloc some real power in Parliament.

Al Wafd and Al Wasat are doing well in Sharqiya. Al Nour is dominating in Suez.

Secular activists have not given up though. As I have said, it is remarkable that the Egyptian Bloc and other moderate and liberal parties are doing this well, particularly considering that they just formed in March. There is real potential for infighting between Salafis and the FJP. As Adel Soliman of the International Center for Future and Strategic Studies points out, the liberal parties will be needed to pass laws or block them.

Several smaller parties are throwing their weight behind the Bloc to show a more united front. (Daily News Egypt 11/12) Members of the Bloc are going into rural areas, and talking to local notables.

I personally think it is a serious mistake that the Revolution Continues refuses to coordinate with the Egyptian Bloc.

The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections is drawing to a
close, but in another sense, Egyptian multi-party politics is just
beginning. After a partially successful revolution, Egypt is now on a
crash course to multi-party democracy. Other countries that have gone
through major political transitions from dictatorship to democracy
generally have had decades to make the transition. The question many
Western observers are asking now is what shape will Egypt’s nascent
democracy take? Will it more closely resemble the secular Turkey, or the
more theocratic Iran?

As news reports have indicated, the results of the first round of
elections have been discouraging for those who support a secular state
in Egypt. Based on our quantitative analysis of publicly available ex
post election data after the first round of voting, the Islamists
performed exceptionally well in comparatively rural areas with low
political capital such as Fayoum and Luxor.

By contrast, liberal and
moderate parties, taken altogether, won only 27 percent of total votes
and performed relatively well in highly urbanized areas of high
political capital like Cairo, Alexandria and Port Said. Liberal
candidates are likely to do worse in the second and third rounds of
voting which will be held in parts of rural Egypt that are likely to be
less progressive and politically sophisticated than Cairo, the Red Sea
and The Delta.

Given results in the first round of the Egyptian elections, what lessons can be learned?

Given
what we have seen in the first round of the Egyptian elections, what
lessons can be learned? First of all, liberal parties made a serious
miscalculation by running numerous separate lists. Many of the parties
in the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA) withdrew from the
Bloc allegedly due to inter-party conflicts. The only liberal party that
has done well in the elections has been The Egyptian Bloc, which has
captured 14 percent of the available seats thus far. Liberal parties are
doing even worse under the single-winner system. In the first round of
runoffs, 47 of the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidates (Freedom and Justice
Party) made it to the runoffs. The far right Islamist party Al Nour has
secured 27 candidates in the first round of runoffs. By contrast, the
Egyptian Bloc only had 9 candidates in runoffs. The liberal and moderate
parties need to resolve their differences and work as a unit to gain
any seats.

The
second lesson to be learned is that Egyptians have not yet embraced an
ideological approach to politics. The conservative right and liberal
left categories which categorize Europe simply do not apply well here,
accordingly labels and ideologies are not useful campaign tools. Rather,
parties can more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a
secular state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. The second
lesson to be learned here, then, all parties must figure out what
matters to them and campaign on issues, like how they will reduce
unemployement, not ideologies. The Egyptian people do not know what
“social justice,” means yet. But they do know what a hungry stomach
feels like.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

I had a very interesting interview with one of the founding members of the Social Democratic Party today.

She said a few things I found fascinating. She mentioned that she got into politics through the Kefaya movement ("Enough"), which first emerged in around 2004. I found it interesting that she learned about the movement in part through their website and an opposition chat room. Further, she mentioned that she actually registered for the SDP by filling out an application on their website. I find it intriguing how much these new parties used information technology.

I asked her if she was worried that the government would track her if she signed up online. She said, that in the time of the Kefaya, in the time before the Revolution, she was afraid. Since the Revolution, she is no longer afraid. She said that in this post-revolutionary period, "fear is over," and she did not hesitate to become politically active.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

So not many voters turned out for the runoff on Monday. I heard this from my student who worked for the UN in elections, as well as the news. This is either going to be great news for the Egyptian Bloc, or terrific news for the Salafis. Unfortunately, a lot of runoffs were between FJP and salafis, so I hope people had the sense to vote FJP. The devil you know. . . .

Basically, a lot of people did not really understand that they had to vote again to finalize their decision. Many people said they "had done their part."

I was relieved and thrilled that my Arabic teacher voted for Kotla, (the Egyptian Bloc) but she lives in upmarket Heliopolis, so that is to be expected. She also voted for Amr Hamzawy. He is my colleague here in public policy. We hope he will teach again next semester.

The apparently incompetent Egyptian Higher Elections Commission noted that "it had made a mathematical error" when it estimated turnout at 62% a few days ago. It appears turnout is closer to 52%, according to Abdel Moez Ibrahim, head of the election body.

It appears that God, is in fact, merciful, because the Salafis, whom I am sure Mohammed (Peace Be Upon Him) would not approve of, "will not accept living in the shadow of the Freedom and Justice Party" ("Head of Salafist Al Nour Party Rules Out Alliance with Muslim Brotherhood," Ahram Online, December 6, 2011) Yet, they may be willing to form a wider coalition.

I am also praying to Allah/Yehova/God that the votes of the Egyptian expatriates help a bit. According to Al Masry Al Youm, "Fifty Egyptian embassies abroad sent vote counts from the run-off
elections to the Foreign Ministry, ministry spokesperson Amr Roshdy said
Tuesday."

In the first round of Egypt’s post-revolution
parliamentary elections, which were held in nine governorates including
Cairo and Alexandria, Islamist parties won 65 percent of all votes cast
for parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party
winning 36.62 percent, followed by Al-Nur Party of the hardline Salafis
with 24.36 percent and Al-Wasat Party with 4.27 percent. Meanwhile, the
liberalist secular alliance, the Egyptian Bloc, secured 13.35 percent of
the votes, and the New Wafd Party got 7 percent.

“The coming struggle will most likely be between the Democrats and
Islamic fundamentalism,” said Ezzedine Fishere, distinguished lecturer
of political science. “That might be a more difficult and protracted
struggle, and will have an uncertain outcome. But it will be, I believe,
the last political obstacle standing between us Egyptians and a liberal
democracy.”

Results in the first round of elections have raised complex
questions about Egypt’s future and where it is heading in this new
political landscape – one in which Islamists seem to be the dominant
force in the country’s transition from military rule. “The scene in
Egypt may lead Egyptians to shortly replace police dictatorship with a
theocratic dictatorship,” said Said Sadek, a faculty member in the
Department of Sociology, Anthropology, Psychology and Egyptology. “The
task after the elections is immense, especially for the Egyptian
economy. A Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi government would further plunge
the economy to an abyss. People will rise up in a new revolution
against them but after more political and economic disasters would have
befallen the Egyptian economy, society, women, religious minorities and
human rights.”

Samer Soliman, assistant professor of political science,
expressed a different viewpoint. “The Muslim Brotherhood today is
different than that of a decade ago; it has developed and matured,” he
said. “Despite some violations, the Muslim Brotherhood worked hard and
has a strong base among people; therefore, the results are logical. The
liberalists should now organize themselves and work harder to secure a
similar popular base among the people.”

Soliman was quick to point out, however, that the “Muslim
Brotherhood now has the right to help in the formation of government,
but it will never have the right to infringe on human rights.”

While some chose to boycott the elections in light of the
recent violence in Tahrir, Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history
department, feels the elections were vital. “With these elections, Egypt
passed a huge step toward democracy,” he said. “Even though I am
against the boycott, I understand and respect those who were calling for
it. I do believe, however, that participating in elections is one way,
among many, including continuing the Tahrir sit-in, to force the Supreme
Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) out of the picture.”

Nevertheless, Fahmy is discontent with the run-up to the
elections. “The law governing elections is a disastrous one that
combines the worst features of the single-candidate district model with
the worst features of the proportional representation model,” Fahmy
explained, adding that “SCAF’s cavalier policies confused both voters
and candidates and effectively dissipated the efforts of the new
parties, as well as the more established ones, and distracted them to
side issues instead of giving them the opportunity to reach out to
voters, sharpen their messages, present credible electoral programs and
build grassroots organizations with their constituencies. I strongly
believe that the Egyptian people deserve a much better elections law
than this one, and that after the January 25 Revolution, we were
entitled to a much better, more substantial election campaign than what
we witnessed.”

With the second and third round of elections looming ahead, as well
as the drafting of a new constitution for the country and the 2012
presidential elections, Fishere predicts that Egypt will be witnessing
an intense struggle between the Islamists, the military and the
liberals. “This election has revealed the relative strength of the
different forces in society, and the Islamists now feel more confident,”
he said. “Egyptian Democrats who focused their energies on resisting
the rule of the military will now have to fight on two fronts.”

No women have been elected from the lists in Egypt's first round of elections. In addition, absolutely no women made it into runoffs from the single winner component of the election in the first round.

I spoke with high ranking women activists in Egypt. Many said that the most important consideration was not gender, but the electability of the candidates. This makes a lot of sense in the single-winner portion of the elections, but I am wondering if this argument makes as much sense for the list portion of the election.

It appears people voted based on what they felt the electoral blocks, or parties represented. They did not vote so much based on the individual candidate. This position of mine appears to be strengthened by the fact that people's preferences in the single-winner portion of the election closely tracked their behavior in the list section.

I find the absence of women in the first round particularly distressing for two reasons. First, women are at least 50% of the Egyptian population. Second, there is a concern that some parties that have recently been elected do not believe that women have the right to hold complex or high profile jobs.

The secular political parties need to rethink their strategy on getting women elected. In particular, it appears that if secular parties want women to get elected, they need to place them in slots 1 or 2 in selected districts where the party is expected to do well. ~WMB

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Well, the FJP (aka Muslim Brotherhood) was expected to win big, so no surprise there. However, the Al Nour is a big surprise, and frankly, a shock.

However, I am very happy that the Egyptian Bloc, which consists of Free Egyptians, the Social Democratic Party and Tagamoo looks like it is doing well. I spoke to a top party member at Groppi cafe yesterday, and he tells me that he is getting an outpouring of support for the remaining two areas where elections have not yet been held. At least there will be some, significant liberal and secular representation in parliament.

Those radicals and leftists who urged people not to vote made a big tactical error. In addition, it would seem that in the next set of elections, all liberal and secular parties would be well advised to work in one bloc, and unite forces.

As I tell my students, democracy is an iterative process. We need to prepare to do better next time.

Friday, December 2, 2011

This post will summarize election outcomes in an easy to read format. The best way to find up the minute info on this is to look here. Jaadaliya Election Results .

The value added of looking here is that I just give you the bare facts. It is a bit easier to read.

According to Jaadaliya, "Exit polls and preliminary vote count show that the Muslim Brotherhood
and Salafists are expected to finish first and second in the first phase
with the liberal Egyptian Bloc a distant third."

Votes will supposedly be announced tonight, although they said that yesterday too. Worried laughter . . .

No official results as of Sunday, results and percentages are still trickling in . . . .

Also, apparently (as of Sunday December 4, 2011) there is some confusion with what to do when the extra votes. i.e. how will the seats be allocated for parties who make the cutoff, but get few votes.

As of Tuesday December 6, 2011, there was very low turnout for the runoffs last night. One of my students works for the UN observation team and she noted this.