Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Pittsburgh Bound

Gotta be short for now, but big news in wonk world. Census data just released shows the first net positive migration into the Pittsburgh region since forever. (to clarify, the first positive net domestic migration in years. If you add internatioanl immigration and domestic migration together it was positive last year as well. Internatioanl immigration, including its measurement, is a topic almost unto itself).

This is just net migration from elsewhere within the nation. There was one year around 1990-1991 the census estimates recorded net domestic migration into the region, but it was under 1,000 folks. Other than that one year you really have to go back much of a century to find a period when that has been true. Ponder that. Here is the graph of data just released:

More later for sure. Gotta run. But it should be a big story. I don't have precise enough data to say this for sure.... but it's possible its the highest net in migration count since WWII. Net domestic migration has been mostly negative for the region since argubaly the 1920's.

On city-data.com, there's been a steady stream of topics from people who have been planning to move to Pittsburgh from elsewhere, so maybe there are more people moving to the region than before. It's probably both an increase in migration to Pittsburgh and a decrease in migration from.

you know... the county story in these numbers may be bigger than the regional story. The county gets doubly whacked by both the migration from the region,but also movement of people within the region as folks move to Butler/Wash/Westmorland/etc.

Yet it looks to me that Allegheny county is showing a positive net inmigration which really would be the first time that has happened in a long long time. The 1991 period which saw a brief period of inmigration for the region was nonetheless showing net-outmigration from Allegheny County. I really can't tell how far back you would have to go to measure positive domestic migration for the county.

As for the city and neighborhing munis... ceneus estimates for those will be out later in the year, but those numbers are awfully iffy. There are truly estimates modeled almost entirely from counts of housing starts and demolitions.

As I suspected, population gains in Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties were wiped out by population losses in Armstrong, Beaver, Fayette and Westmoreland Counties. The good news is, the core of the metro area is relatively healthy.

Assuming each year the population of Allegheny County is 1.00022 times the population of the previous year, it will only take until 2239 before we make-up the people we've lost since 2000 (per Wiki: 1,281,666). And only until 2430 before we hit the 1990 figure.

If I cared more, I could look-up the figures for previous years and see what you get if you assume the rate of change keeps increasing at the same rate. I don't know enough about how they estimate the population between censuses (censi?). But, I wonder if .00022 is different from 0. Could all of the increase be in Butler and Washington?