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Friday, December 2, 2011

SPX Update: Topping Again?

Yesterday the market did absolutely nothing to clarify whether the short-term bullish (long-term bearish) count or heavily bearish count is in play, but there is a good possibility that a top is forming under the terms of either count. While it's always possible that something completely unexpected is going on, the odds favor a top in progress -- with the question appearing to be one of degree: will the top be short-term, or something more significant?

While it is difficult to look much beyond the immediate horizon when the picture has so many potentials, the indications that a nice tradeable top is coming are outlined below.

Obviously, if the blue wave 2 count is playing out, this would be an exceptionally meaningful top -- but I do have my doubts about that scenario now. The market has traded very close to the knockout line on the SPX chart (below). I'm not going to show the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart, but the DJIA is even closer to its KO -- so for reference, the number on the Dow is 12186.98 (1266.98 SPX). Any print above those levels, and we can KO the count shown below.

The bullish count appears to be close to topping as well; this count would anticipate some more upside before a correction. Until the top is actually made, it's difficult to say exactly what shape the correction will take, but I have a theory that it might be fairly deep. The recent bottom seems to need a retest to give it any validity, since it simply wasn't formed the way most bottoms are formed. There are of course, always exceptions to every rule, and this bottom could be one; but I have a suspicion that the market could take a crack at a deep retracement. The caveat there is that the market could do a shallow B-wave and zip on up right into the C-wave, and then form the deep retracement -- which would ultimately break the low.

The chart below grants a solid target for wave 5 of A, represented by the blue target box. After that, the remaining lines are speculation -- once wave A tops and the correction begins, I can give some more accurate projections for (assumed) B and C.

Another interesting factor which supports some type of top forming is the Volatility Index (VIX). The last two sessions, the VIX has traded outside its lower Bollinger band. No indicator works 100% of the time, but in the majority of cases, this indicates a top is nearby. Sometimes the market tops the next day; sometimes it tops a few days later. And every now and then, it just keeps going up -- but that's the exception. The last two times this setup happened are highlighted on the chart below:

In conclusion, I remain medium and long term bearish. I'm waiting for the market to clarify the short term picture in more detail -- though with the VIX confirming the wave structure, it does appear that a top of some type is quite close. What happens over the next few sessions should provide more clues as to the significance of this assumed top. Trade safe.

good morning/evening/*ing PL,Everything looks so bullish right now, mostly propped by uncle ben's $$$. Hope the time is ripe for a correction (deep). Looks like we are set for a 4% global GDP growth. The debt are not there anymore. The bond yields are falling like crazy. The consumer sentiment is skyrocketting. The bids are being upped like there is no tomorrow. Gap ups are the norm of the day. What could possibly GO WRONG? I hope its the negative news being neglected for the past two weeks, china slowdown, ratings cut, etc. comes to limelight, the icing on the cake being the france ratings cut of. (wonder why S&P delayed it...hmm..oh yes, uncle ben wanted to hog the lights for the time being)

ES looks like it wants to go a little higher still before the open. As I said, statistically, based on it being a non-farm payroll day, that should see a reversal lower. The move up today could complete wave A of the bullish count, and there should be a correction coming after that. I would not be surprised to see the correction take us all the way back to 1200-1205 in the coming days -- even under the bullish count.

I have another possible count that would have us break the November lows without the huge crash, but I'm waiting for more evidence before I talk about it in any detail.

Yesterday it came to my attention that some readers didn't know who Lord Keynes was. Here's a super-fun introduction, which beats the heck out of reading about him on Wikipedia:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

Even if you know who he is, if you haven't seen this video from Econstories, it's a pretty awesome idea and I absolutley love the creativity that went into this. :) If you like the first video, watch the second one too:

Yes, I checked out old friend CTPs blog and today will either mark a high or low turn day. If it pops higher, it will mark a high and not hit the next low until 12/12 based on his work. If it dropped today it would mark the low with a run up to that date. Based on futures at least, it looks to be the former. I really like his cycle dates paired with your wave theory. He has been pretty spot on except for polarity - like today, to see if its a top/bottom. Funny, but as you said above - if it goes up today that'll be bearish. Your 1266 would be another failure at the 200 day - like the 4th - V711

Hi PL,It appears that the market is set to open higher and the jobs report is expected to be positive (we will know shortly). If that is the case and we hit your A box target. Is then your expectation that the market will retrace back?

Another anemic jobs report - WAY below raised estimates. People will latch onto the 8.6% but that's just a whole heap O people stopping the job search and collecting checks and food stamps, the later make up 15% of the US population - that's, um, not so good

Isn't every single day the market's open a potential "turn date," if polarity can be decided after the fact, and "highs" and "lows" don't actually have to come at the highest or lowest prices within a trend?

I now you follow the euro-usd closely, here is an interesting free ewi (currency expert martens) chart, that shows that the retracement was corrective, and completed wave C yesterday (or this morning, I don't watch it, so I do not know the exact print), and appears to be now on its wave iii down, according to the chart.

All I can think right now is: Thank God I Did Not Indulge My Temptations to Go Short Yesterday.

How many times do I have to have the overnight market show me not to trust anything these days?

That being said: This strikes me as the single greatest 'rally built on no actual buying' that I have ever seen in my short lifetime.

Looks like we are going to get 100+ SPX points in FIVE DAYS . . . simply conjured out of the ether and with almost no money trading hands to get it. At no point has the Street had to put any real $$$ into this, other than a few surges and moments of playing keepaway from sellers.

Look at the actual numbers - 50,000 part timers being hired in retail for the holidays - whoop de doo - another 33,000 hired in bars and restaurants LOL - that's 80,000 of your 120,000 in minimum wage positions. That's the biggest bunch of horse shit on the planet. This country needs real, full-time jobs with good wages. Not to sound like a union member LOL - We'll get none of this until the current administration is out - Period

Great look at the VIX and the Bollinger bands. I prefer the $vix:$tnx for this assessment. Again, I commented a few days ago that the top in late Oct may not have been a 'significant' high because the $vix:$tnx did not CLOSE below the lower Bollinger band. Again, I still have not done an exhaustive search as of yet but have found more than a few instances of this being correct. Also, you are more than correct in stating that the top does not neccessarily occur on that day. There are more than a number of instances in which the local top lags this $vix:$tnx close below the lower Bollinger band. I am also use the upper Bollinger band on one of my trend model indices (SML, MID, SPX) as another potential indicator of a 'siginficant' local top. This has a very high degree of success although sometimes this occurs and the market just keeps going. Of course, this is very bad news for those who for some reason continue to short the market based upon hunches or news. These indices are a very long ways away from the upper Bollinger band. Note the end of Feb local high, end of Apr local high and early Jul local high using the $vix:$tnx, SML, MID, and SPX with Bollinger band analysis.

I employ 120 people (doing those 'low wage' restaurant jobs . . . though most servers and managers make $75K+ per year after gratuties are included). And we run each establishment far leaner than we ever have due to the larger economic enironment.

My businesses don't do well without those 'real, full-time jobs with good wages' you are talking about. And in the Seattle-area, those are in shorter supply than anytime I can remember.

Misread dates, thought it was current. So disregard. Like I said, don't follow the euro, I am not back in Europe yet. Love Europe, detest amerika. But can't afford Europe yet--but can't wait for Eu to go back the 80's prices--so I can return, for good. Ergo, I am still a 3rd world predator.

Also, analysis of market action based upon 'news' is worthless. This does not in most cases matter in the intermediate sense but of course can make days/weeks very choppy. As a thinking point, use only technical chart analysis and mastery of EW and go and chart market action in an era in which you have no knowledge of events during that time. This is what every 'good' technician should do because it either confirms or destroys their basis (rules) for projections. I have to do that over and over again to confirm that over the intermediate and long term following well defined rules can garner better than market average returns. It makes absolutely no difference what I think should have happened rather, what the trading rules says that I should do.

As a trend trader I do absolutly no projections, none what so ever, notta. However, if I was someone who wished to play the gambling game and lose to the house, I would say that given the market became oversold so that a BUY signal was issued on Oct 5th, the market (either SML, MID, or SPX but not neccessarily all of them) should trade above the end of Oct high before trading below the end of Nov low. However, I really do not care either way and have no vested interest to care. I am not smarter than the market to dictate its direction.

Just suggesting/asking, with futures peaking at 1262, was just wondering if the entire rise starting Oct. 3rd from 1070 to 1272 can be counted as wave A, the retracement to 1148 as wave B and the short squeeze rally this week, topping at 1262, as wave C. And only NOW, we are starting wave 3 down....

Wave C meets the requirement as being .618 of wave A. Any feedback appreciated(sorry for not posting chart)

Good point, but who knows what the FED (or any other central bank) is doing behind the scene? Certainly no one who runs trading blogs (most especially myself) unless there is some wall street conspriacy in that prop trading desks have blogs that project the opposite direction of where the market may get pushed. Given that there are software tools now being used by big traders (banks, brokerages, hedge funds) that are monitering social network sites I would not in any way put it passed them. Especially sites that post projections but do not show trade histories and returns.

Since some of you amerikans herein appear to be interested in usa government 'statistics' (all a mass of filthy manipulated lies, of course), here's one site that works hard at giving you few, some HARDER TRUER information, of how your own govt lies the shhttout of you usa suckers, and deeply skrews you harder, each and every day--- http://www.shadowstats.com/

As the handbill shills used to say, as you passed the doors of the dirty bigcity youngstripper emporiums: "chek it out, broder, chek it out..."

PL, I like your st alt. bullsht (whoops I meant bullish count--let the news headliines get the best of me there.), but think your 3 retracement is too deep. 1220 would be a gift for longs (and shorts to exit)--1240 - 1250 is more likely IMHO. Big rally next week is to be expected. Also revist SLV--my primary count takes us to 50 plus over the next 2 months. You had a post about that as well last week.

Of course the USA is the only government that produces 'filthy manipulated lies' because every other industrialized country is obviously doing much better. However, the only reason that there is interest is that the US is the largest economy in the world. Every country can have its own shadowstats website. I look at shadowstats on occassion and have done so for years. However, it has absolutely no bearing on where the market will be today, next week, next month, etc. The big traders know the real information.

Yeah, it may be... toying with a few ideas there, waiting for some more info -- that's why I talked about everything after "A" just being pure speculation at this moment. Not hard to imagine, though, that a good number of shorts have either already bailed, or are in the process of capitulation, so a deep retrace could get shorts back on board at just the wrong time -- but again, just speculating at this point.

Is one of them meaningless trinkets that your significant other (husband, wife, etc makes no difference) stores in boxes in the shed? I have that covered. As an aside, if I had to move just myself, I bet I could get away with a 17 foot moving van.

for the contrarian move....I simply can't afford another gap up. I must cover shorts at close if we don't drop today.which means, capitulation likely won't come until the EOD. So expect monday to be a down day, until then...the market is trying to force out the weak shorts which unfortunately at this point is ME. I hope I'm wrong and we dump today.

I've got the 200 DMA at 1265 which is too close to PL's KO mark. They may try to push it over the 200 day, but I don't think they have enough to turn the 200 DMA into support, but I know that would be the bull plan for next week. We will see how many times they run at it today....could be some nice trades in those attempts.

first, pl your work is amazing and insanely helpful. THANK YOU I'm scaling in short here, fyi.

But from past experience when everyone expects or hopes for a decline, the market just drifts around or higher for a while to drive everyone nuts. Maybe thats what this is- but news is getting better, financials are breaking out today, etc. Could be the ultimate headfake, which i think it is, or the beginning of a broad rally based on a terrible foundation. but up is up...

Precisely, well said RTTT. ANON20, I like your outspoken attitude and big bets. But clearly you like making your money in this evil USA, and clearly your family didn't build this country. You may not have met many people like me, but my bloodlines have been here bleeding and sweating since the revolution. But your very precense in our markets shows we have something you like better than your homeland. So please show a 'lihhtle respect my friend'. Have as much fun, and take as much as you can, but be clear our cultural marketplace corrects very well for you. You eliminate yourself from Access.

Yeah, of course on the other side of the coin you have all the bulls ready for the monster Santa rally. Who knows; other than The Shadow, of course -- but I don't think he does much trading these days...

Yeah, virtually none of the books I hang on to are novels. They're psychology, or philosophy, or trading, or poker... primarily. Plus a random mish-mash of other non-fiction (as if the first four topics I listed don't sound random enough). But my wife can't understand why I won't get rid of 'em, and everytime we move, I hear about it the WHOLE time. :D

I am not betting in the usa. I am betting AGAINST the usa, the EASIEST bet around, much worse than Europe.

CAN'T WAIT to see you all in the indentured servitude, with a STALINESQUE DICTADORA "presidenta village-dyke hillary alinsky" in 2016, that you HAVE RICHLY DESERVED, and for DECADES. Amerikans are the pariahs of the planet, you are DETESTED worlwide behind your back, and I, and many others, cannot wait to see you FINALLY become financial slaves--- in same way you skrewed over the entire planet, since bretton woods 1944.

Will I CELEBRATE then, seeing you all GROVEL, and jumping out of windows splashing on concrete, and thus become the new 3rd world factoryworkers---as many great 20th century laissezfaire capitalist economists long predicted---with "made in amerika" (under cheap product) stickers, becoming the ultimate partygift laughingstocks, worldwide.

You will SWALLOW your own medicine then, "21st century great economy" (HAHAHA!) amerikans, you'll DRINK the thieving medicine that you forcefed the entire world, nation by raped nation, most of the 20th century; and FINALLY come to richly deserved fruition, with your AUTO SELF DESTRUCTION. Most excellent, amerikans. Cannot wait to see, even lowly ZIMBABWE, LAUGH DAILY AT YOU.

What is up with the equity to EUR/USD decoupling? Could be a sign of the the alternate bullish count playing out on EUR/USD bounce... I think the drop was due to the Republican threatning legislation for Geitner to disclose what he's up to with IMF.

Obviously, YOU, RICH trend trader, did not need the info I wrote above, yet I am CERTAIN, most herein are clueless about it, probably including PL. And IF you are such a RICH trader, buttho, WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE, in this juniorhigh ew-training free site?

OF COURSE "big traders" know about shadow govt. stats. And OF COURSE ALL govts. LIE to the citizenry.BUT WHAT YOU DON'T SEE --NOR YOU CLEARLY STATE ABOVE-- is that BIGGEST BELIEVING SUCKERS IN THE WORLD, are, middle-class amerikans, ever swallowing the tripe disseminated by their utterly CORRUPT govt.; yet, it's a govt. that still continues to HIDE BEHIND SHEEP'S CLOTHING, still pretending to be the "most benevolent caring country in the world"---when in REALITY, they shoved their miserable usa dollars as reserve currency down every other countries throat, since bretton woods '44, swearing they'd NEVER close the gold window (nor leave gold as a reserve backing to their dollar at $35/ounce),

YET THEY DID EXACTLY THAT, 27 years, with tricky dickie, in 1971; thus, royally skrewing the entire planet's reserve wealth---plus, this hard skrewing was further completed, when stumblin ford opened the door again to fort knox gold selling, in 1976. And, as you probably know, with gold being confiscated by FDR in '33 from all usa citizens (at only $20.67/ounce), yet now sold at avg. price (between 1976 and 1982), at over $400/oz (topping out in 1981, at $850 an ounce), I'd say that was THE most MAJOR LEGAL SCAM in history, of other nations, WOULDN'T YOU also say, RICH trader?

SO I P-U-K-E on your cynical wiseass comment above, RICH trader, for ALL I was trying to do, when with I wrote my 'shadow govt.' post above, was an attempt to WAKE the ASLEEP AMERIKAN CHILDREN herein on this bear site, to the TRUE meaning of their govts. manipulated BULLSHHTT statistics.

Read some reports of Republicans drafting a bill that would attempt to prevent the IMF from getting involved in the bailout of European countries so that US taxpayers don't get left on the hook. Seems like a winner politically as I believe the majorities of voters on both sides have grown to hate bailouts 'in general'. Anyway, it was probably the catalyst for PL's Euro sell-off and some pressure on our equities.

No, the wave down looks impulsive, which means the bounce should be a correction to that wave. Meaning it should stay below the HOD, then head to new lows today or tomorrow. Above HOD and I'm reading it wrong.

can somebody xplain to me what is driving the banks up today? Can't like it! Seems like a setup for another major push up, or at least that is what they want us to believe. S&P could rally HARD if the banks had support since it seems they have been the laggards.

The SPX is a rocket ship and I'm going the wrong way with the rocket! Uncle Ben lit the fuse - watch out. If the EU banks go up, unplug the shorts. You can't win against the FED; they control the printing press. I don't agree, but I'm just a small fish in the fry.

Ann Barnhardt: The Entire Futures/Options Market Has Been Destroyed by the MF Global Collapse http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/12/01/ann-barnhardt/entire-futures-options-market-destroyed-by-mf-global-collapseWas the collapse of MF Global an accident or the calculated move of a political insider? Ann passionately lays the whole scheme bare, explaining the massive implications this has for our legal and financial systems, not to mention how investors should prepare in the face of massive corruption.

I'm sharing this knowing that it is not on most of your minds as day traders, but If she is right, which I believe to be the case, we all need to take measures to protect our money far far beyond what was just recently perceived to be safe, like in gold bullion...!!

I'll explain. They figured out that I, ANON20, just doubled up on all my NOV puts against them, so they feel they are so safe, since I am just another PROUD SPIC.

One weird thing about you, ancient bigsur dude, how can an expat be living in california? did california already secede from the "union", without informing ME? I was sure texas would be first to secede, from the krap "united" states.

Yet, california will probably be kickout out soon after texas secedes, for there are too many freebie moochers there, sucking dry the socialist usa tit---starting with wetbacks.

MY biggest concern now is gold. It refuses (so far) to cooperate with he bear case. I want gold DOWN, way down. Silver is just gold's beatch, remora. Silver will kaplunk soon as gold OBEYS ME. DOWN, boy, DOWN, $200 dollars an ounce, DOWN. And in less than 2 weeks, BEATCH. OBEY, OR I GET THE WHIP!

Having worked on the oil exchange, I would venture to bet that they are not viewing this as a negative day so far in the equities so it hasn't caught their eye. The only thing that is really negative on the board is the pound. Furthermore the HO is coming back from getting pounded for 2 days so don't expect CL to do anything major unless the market starts really moving OR if we suddenly find out that the whole earths core is made up of oil OR all the Arab states kiss and make up, Iran surrenders its Nuke programs, and peace talks with Israel suddenly succeed.

If we stay at these levels we'd have shooting stars on most of the indices, and we got dojis or spinning tops yesterday after a huge 7-8% move. No guarantees obviously, but looks good, though the day ain't over yet.

need to test that 1260 again, the bulls have no need to give up at this point- no fear, unless Europe screws up again. shorts have been beaten and shamed so they need some traction before the pile on... imho

Well, in the end the bulls couldn't even keep the candle white.... with all the "good news" I had to hear about all day? But then again I "feel" the same way I did last Friday and we all know how the following Monday (and Wednesday) turned out! :D

Yup - got the shooting star, after yesterday's spinning top, after a 7%+ move to the upside. Sentiment should be vastly more bullish now than it was last Friday. Seems a very good set up for a drop Monday, but it also seems a little too good - hope its not a trap. I held my shorts over the weekend.

We could see a lot of inflow Monday after this impressive week and the unemployment number magically dropping which is clearly bullish sounding, until you realize that all the hiring that was done was seasonal and the number dropped mainly because people dropped out of the labor force and just gave up. But anyway, TPTB might want to keep it up Monday to get the masses to buy at the inflated prices, then wait for turnaround Tuesday to crush everyone. Just a thought. Doesn't seem like we'd vault much higher at least.

As always, Europe is the 800 lb caveat and could send us plummeting lower or screaming higher Monday on whatever is happening at that moment.

What a fucked day to trade. Since noon we had only three cycles / waves lasting longer than three SPX points with the last one to close out LOD.

Morning session was looking fine, which I mostly missed, and then that downward channel formed that was three points up and three points down. What a mindfuck. I must have been in and out of ten trades on that damn thing. Making nickles and dimes the maddening way. At least it was easy to tell where to the reversal was coming.

Another LOD close. Or pretty close at least. And two doji candlesticks in a row on the daily chart.

Consolidation before moving higher? Or a market that's just been hovering up here to sell overpriced stocks to those who'd buy them.

The anticipation on the jobs report was a perfect opportunity to take the futes up overnight, and then buyers showed up strong in the morning to hold things up here.

Still makes me think that we have a downward correction coming soon. Not willing to hold overnight on it though.

it's a doji where the open and close are basically the same and there was a long drop in price that got reversed before the close that day. It's a pretty rare candlestick. Interesting though, I just went back to FreeStockCharts and it changed into a regular old bullish reversal piercing pattern. Both of them are technical signals for a reversal in the VIX which should be welcome news for shorts. I came within $.01 of making an adjustment in positions today.

Well, ended the day up 11.5 ES points, good enough for government work. Structure-wise, the potential does exist for a gap-down open on Monday. First wave off the high was a clear impulse down... 2nd wave after that was a clear correction... 3rd wave into the EOD was one of those "we don't want you to know what's coming on Monday" waves -- so we'll see.

Still a lot of short covering as bond yields were flat to down in Europe and still well off their highs since the coordinated intervention. Lots of people were caught off guard by this move and (so far) its had a big impact on bond yields and by extension the banks exposed to the PIIGS debt. Not sure what is going to happen next week but if we're up the banks will likely outperform and if we're down the banks will likely underperform (unless the cause is China/manufacturing or something else relatively non-Europe-related).

We'll see what ultimately happens but if its like 2008 then the markets and particularly the banks are going to get crushed after this rally. If its like 2010 however, then the markets could soar another 20% while the major US banks double easily. BAC was a $15 stock not that long ago.

Whoops, had to delete the last one, posted the wrong chart. Alright, here we go again:

Okay, here's a fun "guess the outcome" chart. I'm not going to tell you what stock it is, or what year the chart snapshot is from (so you can't look up the eventual outcome! That would be cheating!).Just by looking at the price information, MA's, MACD, and RSI -- are you a buyer or a seller of this one, given you don't know anything about the fundamentals, the economy that year, etc..(btw- If anyone knows the stock, please don't say anything for now.)Let's hear as much feedback as possible before I reveal the answer. :)

Okay, here's a fun "guess the outcome" chart. I'm not going to tell you what stock it is, or what year the chart snapshot is from (so you can't look up the eventual outcome! That would be cheating!).Just by looking at the price information, MA's, MACD, and RSI -- are you a buyer or a seller of this one, given you don't know anything about the fundamentals, the economy that year, etc..(btw- If anyone knows the stock, please don't say anything for now.)Let's hear as much feedback as possible before I reveal the answer. :)

Okay, here's a fun "guess the outcome" chart. I'm not going to tell you what stock it is, or what year the chart snapshot is from (so you can't look up the eventual outcome! That would be cheating!).Just by looking at the price information, MA's, MACD, and RSI -- are you a buyer or a seller of this one, given you don't know anything about the fundamentals, the economy that year, etc..(btw- If anyone knows the stock, please don't say anything for now.)Let's hear as much feedback as possible before I reveal the answer. :)

I'd say buy, which probably means it should be sold ASAP. It jumped above MAs and backtested. Possibly setting up for a cup and handle break-out or even an inverse h&s breakout. In EW, maybe a wave 1, then 2, with the 3 about to come (though I am no elliotician).

Using my novice EW understanding, I see a complete 5 wave impulse down from the peak, and an ABC correction, and then the start of another impulse wave down. But I could count it quite a few ways . . . because I really just don't know enough.

What I see most principally though is the divergence beween the RSI and MACD versus the sp trend suggesting not good things coming next.

I would be a buyer at the end. I see a 5 wave structure up and either:(1) A completed ABC correction with a 5 wave impulse structure ready to embark upon the 3rd wave UP OR (2) just the A part of the ABC correction with B still to come. Both outcomes result in me buying at the end of the chart. Thanks!

I see the beginning of a C wave down... buy some puts or serve up the weekly call credit spreads. This was a great idea by the way... as a newbie these kinds of exercises are great. Can't wait to see the answer.

I see negative divergences on the RSI & MACD & none are in oversold territory (bearish)MAs are in bullish alignmentI see 5 down, 3 up about to begin 3 down of 1 down (bearish)volume on the last big up day was huge which is bullishand is it breaking down from a head and shoulders?some mixed signals but I'm a seller from a technicals standpoint

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