2017 Emmy Awards Predictions: Who will win?

With this Peak TV era we are currently awash in showing little sign of peaking anytime soon, no one could ever watch everything there is to offer across the multiple viewing spectrums, not even a professional paid-to-do-it television critic. And I am no television critic.

I am, however, a lifelong addict and lover of the medium. And with the Stephen Colbert-hosted 69th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards doling out prizes to the best and brightest at 8 p.m. Sunday on CBS, it’s had to resist the urge to voice my opinions and/or predict the outcome. But having seen only a fraction of the nominated shows and performances, my judging qualifications become even sketchier than they originally were.

In other words, I can’t really tell you who I think should win, but I have no problem spouting off about who will and who I wish would. Yes, my fearless predictions and pipe dreams on many of the biggest races are once again yours for perusal and scrutiny. Expect some of them to be dead wrong and others to cause head scratching and curses hurled my way.

Outstanding Drama Series

Will win: I think network drama’s latest last great hope, This Is Us, will snag it. Don’t get me wrong; I love the show and would be happy to hear its name called. The Crown and The Handmaid’s Tale are worthy winners and the most likely to stand in the way of the NBC tearjerker. Stranger Things will always have its rabid fans, but I just don’t see it going the distance.

Want to win:Better Call Saul. Never. Gonna. Happen. Sigh.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Claire Foy, The Crown
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Keri Russell, The Americans
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Will win:It is eight-time nominee (nine if you count her current producing nod for The Handmaid’s Tale) Elisabeth Moss‘ to lose. Surprise Golden Globe winner Claire Foy might have had it in her royal hands before the dystopian Hulu drama debuted.

Want to win: As much as I would love to celebrate a Keri Russell win, I’ve got to hand it to Moss. (And only just a little bit because of Moss’ un-Emmyed Peggy Olson from Mad Men, one of my favorite television characters in the history of the medium.)

Will win:Sterling K. Brown. What more can you say, he’s the newest Emmy darling.

Want to win: This is one of the toughest for me to pick. 2016 Emmy winner Brown is phenomenal, again. And Bob Odenkirk and Better Call Saul might be the most underrated dramatic actor and drama on TV today. But I will ALWAYS stump for my man, Matthew Rhys from The Americans. I will keep doing it until he wins. If he doesn’t win for next year’s final season, I will still continue to campaign for him after the show’s off the air.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama

Will win: There are clarion calls for at least four of these nominees, but I’m going to go with my gut and say Thandie Newton will rise above the pack and bring some gold home for the critically acclaimed Westworld.

Want to win: This is tough for me in a different way than the previous category; I haven’t seen many of these performances first hand. Still, if I had to choose — and according to my self-imposed rules, I do — my heart is with either Newton or the long-fantastic Ann Dowd.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Will win:Hitler and Mussolini made the mistake of underestimating Winston Churchill. I’m not going to bet against his portrayer, John Lithgow. (Although the heart-tugging yet smart work by Ron Cephas Jones could prove an upset.)

Want to win: If I want to be snarky, I could say who I want to win is Michael McKean for his TV career best work on Better Call Saul, but would you look at that, he’s not even nominated. Absent that possibility, I could give it to the always amazing Jonathan Banks (who is almost a co-lead, truth be told), but his character seemed to be sidelined for parts of the season. Let my sentimental heart lead here and go with Jones.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Will win:Seriously, which one do you pick? Of course, you scratch off Modern Family because its many detractors have been calling it long-in-the-tooth (and worse) for several seasons now. Part of me thinks the collective Emmy hivemind will decide that it’s finally black-ish‘s time for some glory. Meanwhile, it seems foolish to cast a vote against reigning two-time champ, Veep. But I have an inkling this is where the Academy will try to show how down and forward-thinking it is and anoint Atlanta the new king.

Want to win: Look, Veep can do no wrong. I think it might not be possible, literally. And the masterful Master of None has the least truthful title of any show on TV. Black-ish‘s hopes might have been done in, though, by the Chris Brown casting and that meh of a backdoor spin-off pilot episode. Which all brings me to Atlanta, as good and fully realized a first season as there ever was, and my first choice from the beginning.

Will win: There are only two people I could possibly envision breaking the streak of comedy legend Julia Louis-Dreyfus: Tracee Ellis Ross or (even legend-ier comedy legend) Lily Tomlin. Just not this year.

Want to win: If I say “anyone but Allison Janney,” you’ll understand that’s directed not at the wonderful actress, but instead at the middling show she stars on, right? The thing is, you just don’t mess with perfection, and that’s what Louis-Dreyfus is. Would not be angry at a Pamela Adlon win, though.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Will win: Almost across the boards, prognosticators, bookies and soothsayers are calling this one for Donald Glover. And as much as I think the world is ready to hear the words “Anthony Anderson, Emmy winner,” I’ve got to go with Glover, too.

Want to win:My heart is very much divided with this category. Glover would be my absolute top choice … if not for Zach Galifianakis semi-Orphan Black-ish (not to be confused with black-ish) work as twins on Baskets. Twisted, absurd, surreal, off-putting, mostly unlikable twins. Plus, one’s a clown, so…

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Will win: The logical part of my brain wants to rebel against all the Saturday Night Live nominations that have taken over the supporting and guest comedy categories. But honestly, Kate McKinnon. What else is there to say?

Want to win: Hypocrite though it makes me, McKinnon is far and away the best thing on SNL and deserves a second consecutive Emmy. If not her, though, please let it be the five-time nominated yet still somehow undersung Anna Chlumsky, the secret weapon of Veep.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Will win: Have they already inscribed the Emmy statuette with Alec Baldwin‘s name? If not, they soon will.

Want to win: And I will not be very happy about that. Love Baldwin, but his Trump, funny as it is in small doses, doesn’t deserve all this respect (no comment on the inspiration). And that would be enough to keep him off the stage for me. Couple that with the fact that one of his fellow nominees moved me more than nearly any other actor or actress this year, and had a season-long arc that was poignant, funny and smart. If Louie Anderson does not take home his second straight Emmy for Baskets then that’s just straight-up … fake news.

Outstanding Limited Series

Want to win: Never having seen Big Little Lies, I can only judge by its rapturous reviews that it is worthy. (Most of its success was pegged to its acting, however, no?) And Fargo, for me, had another killer season, but the fanfare was lessened. Maybe I’ll cast my lot here with The Night Of, just in case it finds itself out of the running elsewhere.

Outstanding Television Movie

Black Mirror: San JuniperoDolly Parton’s Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of LoveSherlock: The Lying DetectiveThe Immortal Life of Henrietta LacksThe Wizard of Lies

Will win:I’m putting a lot of faith in you, Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, that you will break out of the box and bestow the honor on Black Mirror: San Junipero.

Want to win: For many reasons, not least of which is that you’d be acknowledging Netflix, anthology movie series, science fiction and should-be-stars-by-now leads, Mackenzie Davis and Gugu Mbatha-Raw, I’m all in with Black Mirror.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Will win: The only person who could spoil a win for Nicole Kidman here is her Big Little Lies co-star Reese Witherspoon. And just a tiny bit Carrie Coon, if Academy voters want to right the snub of Coon for lead actress in a drama for The Leftovers.

Want to win: It may sound like a cliche by now, but Jessica Lange, Jessica Lange, Jessica Lange. All of these ladies are deserving, and I’m still sad that this will be Felicity Huffman‘s last attempt for the late, lamented American Crime. The thing is, though, Jessica Lange as Joan Crawford was pure genius from the idea stage. How much further and higher and stronger she took it was all her. One arched eyebrow shy of camp, she made the icon heartbreaking. As for Susan Sarandon, she was great, but I never stopped seeing Susan Sarandon instead of Bette Davis, Baby Jane pancake makeup and all.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Lying Detective
Robert DeNiro, The Wizard of Lies
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Geoffrey Rush, Genius
John Turturro, The Night Of

Will win: The superstar power of Robert De Niro could blind voters to rising star Riz Ahmed‘s performance. I’m thinking not, however.

Want to win: Another twin act, Ewan McGregor earns high marks here. Geoffrey Rush is never short of fantastic. Same with Benedict Cumberbatch. But let’s give it to the “new” blood this time and award Ahmed.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Will win: “Experts” are a little more divided on this category than most others, although Laura Dern does have the slight majority of unofficial votes. She’ll score over her co-star Shailene Woodley. Just don’t count out the winner of this award the past two years, Regina King.

Want to win: I always love King, but as a longtime Judy Davis fan it was a thrill to see her outact the ever-expanding headwear she was forced to don as gossip columnist Hedda Hopper in Feud. If that’s not deserving of an Emmy …….

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Will win:Alexander Skarsgard is the overwhelming pick among critics, so I think I’ll stick with them. Unless, of course, the creep factor from his brother Bill’s current turn as Pennywise the clown in the big screen remake of It carries over to him and they bolt.

Want to win: I’m never a proponent of handing out awards solely for overlooked past work, and with Michael K. Williams, he’s luckily good enough in everything to overcome that scenario. But come on, wouldn’t a win here also validate his work in The Wire, Boardwalk Empire, Community, 12 Years a Slave, The Spoils Before Dying, Bessie, hell, even R. Kelly’s Trapped in the Closet?

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

Full Frontal With Samantha BeeJimmy Kimmel LiveLast Week Tonight With John OliverThe Late Late Show With James CordenThe Late Show With Stephen ColbertReal Time With Bill Maher

Will win: Call it a crazy hunch, but I believe in this particular year, the Academy will want to honor something with a bit more of a political bent. That probably rules out Jimmy Kimmel and James Corden. And while John Oliver only does one show a week, and his competitors — save Bill Maher and Samantha Bee — work Monday-Friday or at least Monday-Thursday, Last Week Tonight With John Oliver is the odds-on favorite.

Want to win: Let me be a clear as possible here …….

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

Drunk HistoryDocumentary Now!Tracey Ullman’s ShowBilly on the Street with Billy EichnerPortlandiaSaturday Night Live

Will win: Alas, all signs point to a win for the resurgent (again!) Saturday Night Live. Thanks, Obama, I mean, Trump.

Want to win:A victory for either Portlandia or Documentary Now!would be my dream. No, my true dream would be a tie between both. Absent that, I’ll nudge it in Documentary Now!‘s direction for its dazzling parodies of real-life documentaries, and the always immersive, sometimes subversive, completely transcendent performances of co-creators Bill Hader and Fred Armisen.