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Knicks 2013 Preview: The Ex-Knicks

For those that don’t care for former Knicks, we have a diversion. Check out this video on what the prequel to Star Wars should have been. It’s about 10 minutes long and doesn’t mention Jeremy Lin. Oh damn I brought up his name in the intro.

1. Jeremy Lin 65 games played and 15 PER
78% Over

To be over, Lin will have to both be healthy and remain an above league average point guard. I find it hard to think that Jeremy will be under a 15 PER, but not impossible. If you entirely discount 2012 as a fluke, his 2011 PER in Golden State was 14.8. Houston does a strange thing to some players. Remember Trevor Ariza’s year there? Will they expect Lin to take on a greater role in the offense than he did in New York? How will Lin fit in with Martin and Lamb? Will he worry about Toney Douglas taking over his starting job and strangling the last remnants of Linsanity?

As for his injury, players get hurt all the time. But some here have wondered if Lin’s poor preseason performance is due to his injury never properly healing. Taking the over means you think all of the above is nonsense. Of the two, I’m more sure of the 15 PER than the 65 games.

Tyler Murray says:

I’d be surprised if he’s able to put up “Linsane” numbers in Houston. Too much scouting, not enough Novak.

2. Josh Harrellson 15 N.B.A. games played
56% Under
If people thought that Lin was the soup du jour, then they must see Harrellson as amuse-bouche. Jorts played in about half the minutes as Lin, but statistically he held his own. He was very active on the offensive glass (3.1 oreb/36) and could hit the open three (33.9%). That’s decent production from a minimum-wage big man.

Oh, where did I get 15 games played? Eddy Curry played in 14 last year for Miami. So the over means that Jorts is at least as worthy to an NBA team as Eddy Curry.

So which Landry Fields will we see? The rookie that had a nearly 60% ts%, or the sophomore that would inexplicably and maddeningly miss all 6 free throws in a single game. We all have zero faith in last year being the fluke.

It probably also means that we disagree with the notion that Carmelo somehow is the cause of Fields’ demise. See we don’t demonize and blame Carmelo Anthony for everything that’s wrong in New York. Just when Con-Ed has to rip up the street at 5am, waking up the whole house, and provoking my wife to ask why the hell I haven’t put up those damn shelves yet. I DON’T HAVE TIME, I HAVE TO WRITE ABOUT THE KNICKS TO STRANGERS ON THE INTERNET! That– that is Carmelo’s fault.

4. Number of Teams that hire D’Antoni before the 2014 season starts: .5
56% Over

How cool would it be to have D’Antoni in the league again? You know where I’d like to see him? With the Nets.

That’s right. Oh they have a coach? Hahaha good one. Oh you meant it. Avery Johnson’s first full season was pretty good as the Mavs went to the Western Conference champs. But since then? 67 wins and a first round exit, followed by 51 wins and another first round exit. Then two god awful seasons in New Jersey.

Maybe the lil’General pulls it together in Brooklyn. But from my perspective he’s underperformed since then. I’d bet against Johnson given the facts at hand.

As for Il Baffi, tell me if this team sounds familiar: All Star point guard, good defensive and rebounding small forward, center that scores efficiently from inside and can’t rebound, and Joe Johnson. Is that the 2005 Suns or the 2013 Nets? Either way, it sounds like a 60-win D’Antoni team to me.

In the five drafts from 2000-2004, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mo Williams, Devin Harris and Jameer Nelson were the only point guards to be drafted who have gone on to make an All-Star Game.

Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson were all drafted in the five drafts that followed. Notice a difference in talent compared to the first group?

The point is, while many cite D’Antoni’s success as being due to rule changes about how one can defend a driving player, sometimes the meta-game has a larger effect on how teams play than the actual rules of the gamef. D’Antoni’s system plays perfectly with the incredible pool of talent that is currently available at the point guard slot as well as the dearth of true centers.

That means that however you feel about D’Antoni’s ability to manage stars, as the coach of probably the most successful small-ball team in the history of the modern NBA, he will find a new home as soon as he desires one.

Which Question Did The KnickerBloggers Get Wrong?

Lin will either be injured or below average. (28%, 42 Votes)

Toronto will straighten out Landry Fields. (22%, 33 Votes)

Coach Pringles will be back on the sidelines in a year. (21%, 32 Votes)

I remember well how it took almost a century to overcome the “Bambino curse” when finally the Boston Red Socks won the World Series in four straight.
How long will it take to overcome the “Linsane Curse?”
Just saying.

Cousyfan:
I remember well how it took almost a century to overcome the “Bambino curse” when finally the Boston Red Socks won the World Series in four straight.
How long will it take to overcome the “Linsane Curse?”
Just saying.

He had a horrible game last night, but he is gettin’ intp the paint. His jumper is not workin — Doesn’t look like Fields line drive-no-chance-in-hell-of-fallin’ but it is off. The Rockets are fun to watch — 3rd fastest offensive team in preseason, and they play defense (VERY athletic dudes). Tried to watch Knicks last night, what I saw Felton played well. Gonna be an interesting start everywhere. . . . .

He had a horrible game last night, but he is gettin’ intp the paint.His jumper is not workin — Doesn’t look like Fields line drive-no-chance-in-hell-of-fallin’ but it is off.The Rockets are fun to watch — 3rd fastest offensive team in preseason, and they play defense (VERY athletic dudes). Tried to watch Knicks last night, what I saw Felton played well.Gonna be an interesting start everywhere. . . . .

I actually disagree. He is still figuring out his scoring/ shooting touch but his passing has been solid & his defense has been impressive. I believe he was running the show during the 3rd quarter that blew open the game for the Rockets. Went on a 17-2 run & most of it was because of excellent defense & facilitating. It is very rare for such a young team to run such a crisp offense. He is still getting into the paint at will but last night he was not getting any calls whatsoever. Question is does he have his legs under him sufficiently enough to hit his FT’s. Aside from that I though he had a good game, his defense & managing of the offense was good to see. But all of this doesn’t really matter until we see it in the regular season.

My only wish would have been one young backup bigman considering Amare’s history. Having one “wisdom” player backing up PF (Camby) and PG (Kidd) is enough! Prigioni, does not count…the man is 21. By the way, i think Camby’s calf is going to linger for a long time. We’ll have to bring in ‘Sheed and hopefully he’s doesnt turn ino a total bust and Copsanity, although i’m annoyed at his inability to rebound – is it just that he looks taller than he really is??

@knicknyk — Rockets have actually looked VERY good as a team with Lin running it. They only lost 1 game with Lin running the show and that was vs. the Spurs. Who beats the Spurs? And the starters for the Spurs that game played a lot of minutes — about 25. The Hornets though are gonna be really bad, and they played them twice. Anthony Davis can rebound, but Asik outplayed him. I am a bit down on ADavis, just don’t think 220 pound power forwards can do it vs. NBA competition. If/when Lin finds his jump shot I think the Rockets have more potential than they are given, I think they’ll be close to .500 maybe.

Eternal OptiKnist:
My only wish would have been one young backup bigman considering Amare’s history.Having one “wisdom” player backing up PF (Camby) and PG (Kidd) is enough!Prigioni, does not count…the man is 21.By the way, i think Camby’s calf is going to linger for a long time.We’ll have to bring in ‘Sheed and hopefully he’s doesnt turn ino a total bust and Copsanity, although i’m annoyed at his inability to rebound – is it just that he looks taller than he really is??

I think you answered your question: Copeland is that guy.

Also, this is how Camby has always rolled and old guys will do almost anything to miss training camp.

I’d be shocked if Camy didn’t play 10-15 minutes against either NJ or Miami, but Copeland is Amar’e light, better screener though with 3pt range. I’m pretty excited about Copeland moving forward if anything is able to get done with Amar’e next year.

As far as D’Antoni going to Brooklyn, it also fits with Prokhorov’s interest in making splash, getting attention, drawing more of the NY market. I wonder what the breakdown is among Knicks fans as far as their opinions of D’Antoni. I imagine right now, most people are down on him as the season turned around once he was gone, but if this season is another mediocre, people will be nostalgic about the good old D’Antoni days when at least there was cap flexibility and youth.

I also agree that D’Antoni would be good for the Nets although there’s no way he’d ever have Lopez and Humphries on the floor at the same time. Brooks would be in the SL in a Brooklyn minute, with Wallace at the four. Teletovic would play more minutes, too. Last night, Tyshawn Taylor looked like he might have Leandro Barbosa potential.

Eternal OptiKnist:
My only wish would have been one young backup bigman considering Amare’s history.Having one “wisdom” player backing up PF (Camby) and PG (Kidd) is enough!Prigioni, does not count…the man is 21.By the way, i think Camby’s calf is going to linger for a long time.We’ll have to bring in ‘Sheed and hopefully he’s doesnt turn ino a total bust and Copsanity, although i’m annoyed at his inability to rebound – is it just that he looks taller than he really is??

They’ve looked good, and Douglas and Machado have outplayed Lin by an extreme margin.
Lin has a TS% in the 20s!! He’s scored 23 points in 130 minutes (6.3 points per 36)!!
Those would e historically bad numbers. Now, obviously Lin is going to be better than that, but it’s hard to imagine him doing a 180 in regards to efficiency now that he’s a focal point.

One positive is that he’s averaging about 8 assists per 36 minutes, even if it’s coming with 4 turnovers., which is what we saw from him last year basically.

But you’re not starting jeremy Lin because of his very pedestrian a/to, even though he’s a solid playmaker.

knicknyk: I actually disagree. He is still figuring out his scoring/ shooting touch but his passing has been solid & his defense has been impressive. I believe he was running the show during the 3rd quarter that blew open the game for the Rockets. Went on a 17-2 run & most of it was because of excellent defense & facilitating. It is very rare for such a young team to run such a crisp offense. He is still getting into the paint at will but last night he was not getting any calls whatsoever. Question is does he have his legs under him sufficiently enough to hit his FT’s. Aside from that I though he had a good game, his defense & managing of the offense was good to see. But all of this doesn’t really matter until we see it in the regular season.

So, you have gleaned all of this from the absolutely irrelevant preseason?

Ruru. TD & Machado have not outplayed Lin by an extreme margin once again cut the crap. I love Scott & think he has the potential to have a good career in the NBA in the future. I thought the Knicks should have taken him but Scott is going to the D-league. He was throwing the ball at teammates faces in practice. Shaun Livingston showed more in a few minutes of play last night in comparison to TD & Scott in 3 games. In fact I was thinking that they should consider picking up Delonte West as a back up. (if the Mavs decide to waive him & give his roster spot to Curry) He is better than all the other PG’s they have backing up Lin.

And nobody could see Dantoni being a nice fit in LA coaching Nash on the Lakers if Brown isn’t able to get things done?

knicknyk:
Ruru. TD & Machado have not outplayed Lin by an extreme margin once again cut the crap. I love Scott & think he has the potential to have a good career in the NBA in the future. I thought the Knicks should have taken him but Scott is going to the D-league. He was throwing the ball at teammates faces in practice. Shaun Livingston showed more in a few minutes of play last night in comparison to TD & Scott in 3 games. In fact I was thinking that they should consider picking up Delonte West as a back up. (if the Mavs decide to waive him & give his roster spot to Curry) He is better than all the other PG’s they have backing up Lin.

And nobody could see Dantoni being a nice fitin LA coaching Nash on the Lakers if Brown isn’t able to get things done?

How has Lin outplayed Machado and Douglas in the preseason? They’ve all shot far more efficiently, they have far fewer turnovers, and they’ve got a + point differential.

I watched about three quarters of the Houston game and it’s tough not to be at least somewhat concerned about Lin- he had no trouble getting into the lane but wasn’t even close to being able to finish. it seemed like he had no lift once he got into the lane- R. Lopez barely had to leave his feet to completely alter Lin’s shots. He had a couple of nice dishes but a few awful turnovers as well. It’s also clear he has no confidence in his outside shot- he passed up several open threes. He was moving well and looked fine on defense but Lin’s success last year was based on his ability to go north/south and if he can’t finish, he’s just not the same guy. Hopefully, he’s either just lacking confidence in the knee or holding something back to keep from getting injured unnecessarily in the preseason because if he can’t finish inside, the chances that he winds up a bust go up astronomically.

knicknyk:
Ruru. I am not going to talk to somebody who just looks at box scores & lowlights & didn’t watch the game.

Haha, of all people to receive this criticism.

Lin’s one basket usually gets its own highlight.

if you’re happy with the way Lin is running the team, which is definitely possible if he’s not directlly impacting plays that are attributed with statistics, then you better not complain about the way jason Kidd plays the game.

But you’ve got to first decide if the preseason matters. Perhaps you’ve changed your mind the last couple of days.

Pre-season doesn’t matter. Good or bad is all irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. You can’t sit here and say nobody knows what Lin is based on 25 game actual NBA games and then use 5 pre-season games as evidence of his struggling. Holy crap the double standards are astonishing. It’s fucking pre-season where the Lakers are 0-7 & the Raptors are beasting. Even if he had averaged 20 & 10 in the pre-season I would still say it is all meaningless because it is the pre-season. And you would be saying the same thing ruru.

@nicos. My issue isn’t with his shot or ability to finish that will likely come in time as he gets his timing back & all that. All players go through shooting slumps remember Novak last season for a few games that actually mattered? And the refs were not calling anything in that NO game they were just letting the player play through contact. A lot of those times he penetrated & failed to finish should have been called & he should have gone to the line considering the amount of contact he was getting. What concerns me is his decision making at the very end of those dribble penetrations When he gets into the paint he picks up his dribble, he needs to keep it alive in traffic. He is leaving his feet, running into bigs & forcing the issue a bit. Once he gets into five feet of the rim his decision making is off, he forces his own shot or getting a pass, needs to keep it alive until the absolute last second. Sometimes he keeps it alive sometimes he doesn’t.

Ruru. I am not going to talk to somebody who just looks at box scores & lowlights & didn’t watch the game.

By “not going to talk to” him you apparently meant, what, the exact opposite? You’re being toyed with and you just keep feeding into it, even after you specifically noted that you were going to drop it. Take your own initial advice to yourself. You’re just going to get pissed off otherwise.

Douglas has made some shots (still not even average), committed turnovers, and hasn’t done much of anything else except for one game with 5 assists. I wouldn’t qualify that as outplaying Lin by an extreme margin lol Machado, maybe (didn’t play much at all) but definitely not TD.

ruruland: Ok, how have they not outplayed Lin by an extreme margin? I get the impression from knicknyk that he thinks Lin has outplayed his back-ups.

Anyway, I was watching the Clippers game & that team is really deep. The lakers have a great starting unit but there bench is really weak. The Clippers are deep plus there starters already have that chemistry. I really think the Clippers are a force to be reckoned with. Lamar Odom (who is fat) & Grant & Chauncey aren’t even playing also. I think Clippers, OKC Spurs are the top 3 teams in the west if they stay healthy. Then I put the LAL, Nuggets, Memphis right after.

Hopefully on Nov. 1 our edge at PG will be the difference in crunch time.

I am not liking the Joe Johnson Experience. We’d be better off with a lights out shooter at SG, considering we have no shooters other than Williams in the starting line-up.

I do think it’s funny that the Knicks’ best guard is a 35 year old, first year NBA player from Europe.

It’s fun watching melo pout as a Nets fan rather than as a Knicks fan.

It will be really fun reading the excuse making on the Knicks blogs this season from those predicting 55-60 wins. I’m sure they will be shocked that the oldest team in the league will suffer so many injuries, and that a team with 65% of its payroll tied into two players who need the ball to be effective will struggle on offense.

Hopefully on Nov. 1 our edge at PG will be the difference in crunch time.

I am not liking the Joe Johnson Experience.We’d be better off with a lights out shooter at SG, considering we have no shooters other than Williams in the starting line-up.

I do think it’s funny that the Knicks’ best guard is a 35 year old, first year NBA player from Europe.

It’s fun watching melo pout as a Nets fan rather than as a Knicks fan.

It will be really fun reading the excuse making on the Knicks blogs this season fromthose predicting 55-60 wins.I’m sure they will be shocked that the oldest team in the league will suffer so many injuries, and that a team with 65% of its payroll tied into two players who need the ball to be effective will struggle on offense.

I agree that the Lakers’ depth is a little sketchy. They key bench guys would appear to be Jordan Hill, Antawn Jamison, Jodie Meeks, Steve Blake and Devin Ebanks. The only guys out of that group who are pretty good rotation players are Hill and Meeks. The rest of the roster is dreck.

The Clippers bench is basically Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, Jamal Crawford and Eric Bledsoe. That looks pretty good on paper, but Odom looks like the same lost soul he was last year, Turiaf doesn’t give you lots of production and Bledsoe was horrendous last season. Jamal Crawford has always been one of my least favorite players and plays the same crappy, inefficient, no-defense way he has always played. That leaves Barnes and Hill… I think the Clippers’ depth looks better on paper than it’ll be in real life.

One team I really like in the West is Utah, who have a starting lineup of Al Jefferson, Paul Milsap, Marvin Williams, Gordon Hayward and Mo Williams, with upside-heavy young players in Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks on the bench along with intriguing per-minute stat machine Jeremy Evans. That’s potentially a really deep team if some of those young guys develop a bit.

The next 5-6 days cannot go by fast enough. Can’t wait until we can talk about actual games that count rather than speculating on the meaning of preseason performances.

I will agree with 2for18 on one thing though – Prigioni might really be our best PG right now. He looks to be a much better on-ball defender than available scouting reports online led me to believe. And the way he runs the PNR with Copeland makes you really think he should be playing a lot with STAT. Our PGs may not have the upside of Jeremy Lin, but MAN do I feel much better about our PG situation than I did last year.

I will say this about the Lin situation — and remember, I’m a huge fan of his, my kid (still) wears his jersey around, etc — that assuming this was actually a basketball / value decision, that Grunwald made the final call and not Dolan in some infantile tantrum, and taking into account Grunwald’s very good (if short) track record for evaluating talent — I’m sort of impressed that they let him go. They may be wrong in the final outcome (ie. Lin could be really really good), but if their objective evaluation of his game was that he’s not a good fit for the team and he’s not that good a player (especially for the $), then how strong do you have to be to let him go? This is like Denver (NFL) letting Tebow go even though he just took them to the playoffs because they KNOW that he’s not the long or short-term answer.

Again – I’m not saying that Lin isn’t going to be great (although I am not heartened by his play this preseason yes I know it’s just preseason blah blah blah), but this is the exact opposite of what NYK fans have been complaining about forever — throwing money at players that aren’t worth it for marketing/advertising splash. This is the exact opposite of the Jets and Tebow, which looks like a wash at best, and a total bust at worst.

I really like Prigioni, but the one issue I have with him is he passes to a fault. There were several times in that Nets game that he got all the way to the basket and then kicked the ball out for a long jump shot.

Not the worst flaw to have, obviously, but I do think he has to look for his own shot more and keep the defense honest.

Frank: Our PGs may not have the upside of Jeremy Lin, but MAN do I feel much better about our PG situation than I did last year.I will say this about the Lin situation — and remember, I’m a huge fan of his, my kid (still) wears his jersey around, etc — that assuming this was actually a basketball / value decision, that Grunwald made the final call and not Dolan in some infantile tantrum, and taking into account Grunwald’s very good (if short) track record for evaluating talent — I’m sort of impressed that they let him go. They may be wrong in the final outcome (ie. Lin could be really really good), but if their objective evaluation of his game was that he’s not a good fit for the team and he’s not that good a player (especially for the $), then how strong do you have to be to let him go? This is like Denver (NFL) letting Tebow go even though he just took them to the playoffs because they KNOW that he’s not the long or short-term answer.Again – I’m not saying that Lin isn’t going to be great (although I am not heartened by his play this preseason yes I know it’s just preseason blah blah blah), but this is the exact opposite of what NYK fans have been complaining about forever — throwing money at players that aren’t worth it for marketing/advertising splash. This is the exact opposite of the Jets and Tebow, which looks like a wash at best, and a total bust at worst.

Precisely, Frank, which has been my argument all along. Calling it a “no brainer” to match Lin was, and still is, nonsense. Whether it was a 50-50 decision, or a 60-40 decision either way, either choice involved a huge degree of risk. (Please, spare me the BS salary cap/luxury tax/expiring contract nonsense.)

I have seen nothing to show that this assumption is an accurate one. We have some sources saying it was and we have many more sources saying it wasn’t. Almost all of them were anonymous (the “it was not a basketball/value decision” guys were less anonymous, though, like Woodson saying that he was going to be the starting point guard a week or so before they said “Oh, no, no, we were never planning on bringing him back”). I think the evidence that it was not a basketball/value decision outweighs the evidence that it was a basketball/value decision, but I can admit that we likely won’t know for absolutely sure for a few more years. Maybe not even then. Actually, that’s another annoying thing about this story, it is a story that will keep on keeping on. They will be writing about this years from now.

but this is the exact opposite of what NYK fans have been complaining about forever

It is not. I have never complained about them using their financial advantage to get good players. Heck, that’s one of the only (heck, just flat out the only) things Dolan has going for him, his ability to use his money to get good players. So no, this is not the exact opposite of what NYK fans have been complaining about forever. What we complain about is him using his money to get clearly not good players, like Jamal Crawford, Steve Francis, Eddy Curry, Jalen Rose, Malik Rose (who did at least get the Knicks the David Lee pick or was that the Jalen Rose trade? I forget), Jerome James, Jared Jeffries, etc. They never used their money to get a Jeremy Lin-type player in the past. If they did, I surely would not have criticized it. Part of the reason is that they managed the team so poorly that they never had a Jeremy Lin-type player, except for David Lee, who they were luckily able to get in the first round so his salary was locked in for years. Heck, have you noticed people ripping their overpay for Steve Novak? Of course not, since he is not clearly a bad player.

I am going to say this. Next summer once again we are going to be seeking to figure out the PG position in my opinion. That will definitely frustrate me the amount of roster turnover this team gets particularly at that position of need.

Z-man: Precisely, Frank, which has been my argument all along. Calling it a “no brainer” to match Lin was, and still is, nonsense. Whether it was a 50-50 decision, or a 60-40 decision either way, either choice involved a huge degree of risk. (Please, spare me the BS salary cap/luxury tax/expiring contract nonsense.)

But even from a production-versus-production angle (re: Lin vs. Kidd/Felton), you’re still taking a huge risk on the current PGs. With Lin, there’s a risk that his knee deteriorates or his play-style gets “figured out” (since, you know, he relies on “smarts” not “athletic talent”) and he becomes an unproductive player. But signing Felton and Kidd don’t carry their own reservations? Felton has never been a good PG (ever) and Kidd is really old and due to drop off an efficiency cliff. Lin is young and even if he continued last year’s production numbers, he’d be a solid improvement over Felton, who, again, is not a good PG. Kidd is a reserve guard either way and thus won’t have a huge impact on team wins, so why privilege the Felton/Kidd risk over the Lin risk?

I am going to say this. Next summer once again we are going to be seeking to figure out the PG position in my opinion. That will definitely frustrate me the amount of roster turnover this team gets particularly at that position of need.

There is a decent chance that Felton plays well enough for there to be some certainty about his position next season. But yeah, one of the major reasons for not letting Lin go was not only would he be your point guard of the present and future, but with a team that is aging like the Knicks are, he also gave the team one of the few players who could actually get better over the next few years (basically him and Shump. Oh, and I guess JR’s annual ‘this is the year I put it all together!’ potential. How awesome would it be if this season actually is the one where he puts it all together? That would be soooooooo sweet).

I don’t get this he’s not able to adapt his game or he’s a poor fit for the team arguments. The kid is young and has shown he’s a team player, filling whatever role is needed. He shown that he could be effective under two different coaches last season and just looking at the pre-season game box scores and watching a game or two, you can tell he’s playing differently.

He’s only had 1 game where he had 10 or more fga’s, now if that’s because he’s shooting poorly or not who knows, but at least he knows when to stop shooting it. And in the games I seen, he’s only taking the open jump shot or occasionally looking for his shot on a drive or two. But he seems like he is really focused in running the offence and distributing.

There’s no doubt in mind he would have been a great fit in the Knick’s offense/team. He would gave us more offensive versatility in the form of having a slashing/driving pg who can finish at the rim.

Jeremy Lin is more overrated than Tim Tebow!!! LOL… If Felton had Lin’s numbers in this past preseason, a bunch of fans and the press would’ve been talking trash about the guy…Heck!!! They talk trash even when he plays good!!! Once again, I’m glad Jeremy Lin is gone…and I like our PG’s!! I just wish Pablo was 3 or 4 years younger, but anyway, he’s playing great basketball!!! Peace out!!!

Brian Cronin: I think the evidence that it was not a basketball/value decision outweighs the evidence that it was a basketball/value decision, but I can admit that we likely won’t know for absolutely sure for a few more years.

Yeah, that’s why I gave that big caveat. But it may be that they thought he was worth $20M-ish over 4 years with a team option on year 4 and a decreasing salary each year to minimize the luxury tax hit (a general proposal that I think they floated out to him at the start of FA). And maybe they also thought he was maybe not quite worth the initial Houston contract offer that was leaked (which still had a 4th year team option and smaller 14-15 hit) but that it was reasonable to match. In any case, the contract that he did get is a FAR cry from what he got, which is only 3 years (no team option on year 4 at a low-ish price) with that huge luxury tax hit in 14-15. So I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say it was actually a basketball decision. You can agree with it or not, but I think without a doubt it could be defended from a basketball and $value standpoint.

You know, I think you’re being a little hard on Felton. He was awful last year for sure (especially pre-ASB when extra fat), but he was basically average in 10-11 by WP48 (hanging around the George Hill/Jameer Nelson/Jrue Holiday/Stephen Curry range), and had the 11th best WP48 of PGs in 09-10 (if you discount Oliver Lafayette who played 1 game). He is a middling-poor efficiency scorer, but his 3P shooting is getting better and hopefully he will shoot less this year with all the weapons around him. No one thinks he is the next coming of Chris Paul, but he’s not terrible.

So I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say it was actually a basketball decision.

Not a huge stretch, perhaps, but still a stretch. Again, the coach is naming him as the starter and they’re signing a guy to be his mentor and then a couple of weeks later they’re trying to sell us that they were never really interested in bringing him back (remember, the revised anonymous sourced stance was that they were never really interested in bringing him back all along, not “we liked him at the original Houston offer sheet but not the second one”).

But yeah, the funny thing about it all is the argument you just made could easily be made, simply because we don’t definitively know what they were thinking period. You could posit all sorts of different motivations because all we got is various conflicting anonymous sources (although, again, I think the very few non-anonymous sources tend toward the “it was not a basketball decision” side of things).

The Honorable Cock Jowles: But even from a production-versus-production angle (re: Lin vs. Kidd/Felton), you’re still taking a huge risk on the current PGs. With Lin, there’s a risk that his knee deteriorates or his play-style gets “figured out” (since, you know, he relies on “smarts” not “athletic talent”) and he becomes an unproductive player. But signing Felton and Kidd don’t carry their own reservations? Felton has never been a good PG (ever) and Kidd is really old and due to drop off an efficiency cliff. Lin is young and even if he continued last year’s production numbers, he’d be a solid improvement over Felton, who, again, is not a good PG. Kidd is a reserve guard either way and thus won’t have a huge impact on team wins, so why privilege the Felton/Kidd risk over the Lin risk?

Here are some hyothetical counterarguments:
Lin’s durability is generally a concern
Lin’s knee is a specific concern
Lin does not mesh well with current team
Lin’s productivity is better represented by his last 13 starts than by his first 13
Lin was dominated by Mario Chalmers and Rondo pre-knee injury
Lin’s presence would be a huge distraction a la Tebow if he didn’t play well and had to be benched
Lin’s contract would create locker room issues
Woodson doesn’t believe in Lin’s ability
Felton has played adequately well for 2.5 of the last 3 years
Felton had a good P&R relationship with Amare last time around
Felton was endorsed by other players over Lin
Felton is an outlier and will play better than his career stats
Kidd will play more when it matters most, especially if Felton faulters
Lin-level PGs are easy to find/replace

PS: it wasn’t Lin vs. Kidd/Felton, it was either
Lin/Kidd/Prigioni vs. Felton/Kidd/Prigioni
or
Lin/Kidd/Felton/Prigioni vs. Felton/Kidd/Prigioni Kid and Prigs had been signed already.

Z-man:
Lin’s durability is generally a concern
Lin’s knee is a specific concern
Lin does not mesh well with current team
Lin’s productivity is better represented by his last 13 starts than by his first 13
Lin was dominated by Mario Chalmers and Rondo pre-knee injury
Lin’s presence would be a huge distraction a la Tebow if he didn’t play well and had to be benched
Lin’s contract would create locker room issues
Woodson doesn’t believe in Lin’s ability
Felton has played adequately well for 2.5 of the last 3 years
Felton had a good P&R relationship with Amare last time around
Felton was endorsed by other players over Lin
Felton is an outlier and will play better than his career stats
Kidd will play more when it matters most, especially if Felton faulters
Lin-level PGs are easy to find/replace

-Yes.
-Yes.
-Having a good point guard is never bad for a team.
-Maybe. But let’s not cherry pick.
-Small sample size. Rondo is maybe a top 3 point guard.
-Any athlete can be a distraction in NYC. Who cares?
-Whoever disagrees with Lin’s contract can eat a bowl of fuckall for all I care. They’re paid to play, not to complain about their contracts. Why don’t they bitch about Amar’e’s shitty contract?
-Woodson would be a moron, then.
-Felton is not good.
-Felton was not good as a Knick.
-Jealousy at best, racism at worst. The front office should deal with that head-on. Plus, I don’t care who Carmelo Anthony thinks is the best player at any given position. The numbers are more accurate than their eyetest.
-Felton is not good.
-It doesn’t matter if Kidd plays more. Lin should be the other PG.
-Untrue. We have Felton, who is not good, in his place. Patently false.

OK, So:
-We agree
-We agree
-Agree, but depth at the position, cost, and agreeing that the player is “good” are important considerations.
-This is a HUGE maybe, and there is no choice but to cherry pick. Lin has 26 NBA starts in the middle of a fucked-up season, a handful of garbage time minutes, a 4-year career at a nothing college, and a very short list of summer league and D-league highlights. In analyzing this cherry pick, the only things that are consistent are high assist rate, high turnover rate and mediocre 3-pt shooting. Just about everything else was all over the map.
-Agree, but the sample is vs. the two guys we are most concerned about. Should probably mention Deron 2.0 in this point as well.
-Right, interpersonal dynamics have no place in professional sports or influence on a team’s success. Amare was signed before they got there, and has slightly more effective burn under his belt.
-as i guess is everyone who doesn’t believe that Lin is as good as you think he is.
-The stats say over this time period that he is average, so not good is true, I guess.
-he was until D’Antoni burned him out by playing him 40+mpg in an uptempo system (i.e. rode him like Secretariat). He also had a synergy with Amare.
-It wasn’t just JR and Melo. Kidd was very lukewarm in talking about Lin when he was signed. Chandler was less than kind in a recdent appraisal. I doubt that they are shills for Dolan, but, whatever.
-see above
-again, based on your opinion, which is based on a very flimsy and inconsistent set of data and ignores any red flags
-This was more of a long-term assertion for those that argue that Lin was a young guy to build a future around, but we still haven’t come close to establishing that Lin is better than Felton. Or Kidd. Or Prigioni. Or Dragic. Or Lowry. or any other journeyman PG with glaring weaknesses. Not to mention that Felton comes at 1/4 the price.

That figure comes from the total payout including luxury tax. The tax rate goes up to like 2-3 times the over the cap figure. Some have argued that if Lin was not worth it, he could be traded as an expiring or “stretched” to reduce the cap hit so the risk of eating that money without getting something of value in return was minimal.

I have heard so many different total payout figures that I don’t believe it anymore. There has been so much misinformation it is madness. I have heard 30 million in luxury tax + his 15 million salary. I have heard 40 million in luxury tax and now you are saying 70+ million. I don’t think anybody knows how to calculate luxury tax. It takes multiple contracts to get a team to the point that they pay the tax rate not just one. So much misinformation it is crazy.

Z-man:
I got that figure from someone on this site (ephus?) It’s not all luxury tax, but salary +luxury tax combined over 3 years.

Yes I know it is salary + luxury tax. But once again there was a lot of misinformation going on that it is hard for me to really tell what is the truth. I have heard multiple figures & seen no math to back those figures up. I don’t think anybody knows what the total pay out is. But I get where you are coming from.