Monday, February 29, 2016

Indianapolis! So I've never been to this city but apparently it has a favorable marathon course? It's a smaller race, less than 5000 finishers. According to Wikipedia, it's only been around since 2008. Looking at the elelvation map, it looks fairly flat (of course, this is coming from someone who, if I have to from anywhere from my house, I am going to incur minimum 100 ft elevation over like .5 miles - if I want to run down at the bay which is what I usually do, it's 250ft+ down a hill that is about .75 miles and then you get to go back up it to get home). So, when I see like, 50 ft climb as the biggest hill, that is practically flat by San Diego standards.

Anyway, so, this race, unlike NYCM and MCM, appears to be following the same story as the rest of the feeders.

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

102

648

15.74%

84

621

13.53%

F35-39

36

298

12.08%

46

369

12.47%

F40-44

45

244

18.44%

34

306

11.11%

F45-49

33

154

21.43%

31

199

15.58%

F50-54

26

112

23.21%

19

125

15.20%

F55-59

6

61

9.84%

15

73

20.55%

F60-64

8

31

25.81%

6

25

24.00%

F65-69

2

11

18.18%

2

8

25.00%

F70-74

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F75-79

0

1

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

96

599

16.03%

67

556

12.05%

M35-39

49

378

12.96%

47

367

12.81%

M40-44

40

358

11.17%

49

402

12.19%

M45-49

50

302

16.56%

61

381

16.01%

M50-54

48

245

19.59%

39

271

14.39%

M55-59

23

153

15.03%

36

169

21.30%

M60-64

17

73

23.29%

20

89

22.47%

M65-69

5

37

13.51%

9

35

25.71%

M70-74

2

9

22.22%

2

9

22.22%

M75-79

0

2

0.00%

0

3

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

Totals

588

3716

15.82%

567

4009

14.14%

So, more finishers, but fewer qualifiers/rate of qualification. The decrease in qualifiers is 3.57% year over year.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

41

6.97%

38

6.70%

1-2 minutes

40

6.80%

39

6.88%

2-3 minutes

38

6.46%

31

5.47%

3-4 minutes

25

4.25%

30

5.29%

4-5 minutes

21

3.57%

26

4.59%

5-10 minutes

114

19.39%

123

21.69%

10-20 minutes

150

25.51%

150

26.46%

20> minutes

159

27.04%

130

22.93%

Totals

588

567

Squeaker pack (defined as qualifiers with less than 5 minutes of margin) in 2014 was 28.06%. In 2015, it was 28.92%. So, Squeaker Pack got bigger.

What does this mean for the prediction?

More data coming at ya.

AG

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

% Qualifiers

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

% Qualifiers

F18-34

2127

28068

7.58%

1958

27061

7.24%

F35-39

945

10915

8.66%

929

10951

8.48%

F40-44

953

10326

9.23%

914

10119

9.03%

F45-49

951

7144

13.31%

908

7450

12.19%

F50-54

572

4710

12.14%

616

4999

12.32%

F55-59

320

2368

13.51%

297

2360

12.58%

F60-64

139

987

14.08%

147

1034

14.22%

F65-69

42

318

13.21%

46

339

13.57%

F70-74

8

94

8.51%

8

101

7.92%

F75-79

1

23

4.35%

1

18

5.56%

F80+

1

3

33.33%

1

6

16.67%

M18-34

1875

25525

7.35%

1721

24038

7.16%

M35-39

946

13692

6.91%

959

13093

7.32%

M40-44

1093

14694

7.44%

1066

13829

7.71%

M45-49

1275

11624

10.97%

1218

11653

10.45%

M50-54

1039

9121

11.39%

940

9117

10.31%

M55-59

613

5266

11.64%

626

5465

11.45%

M60-64

390

2733

14.27%

418

2773

15.07%

M65-69

173

1125

15.38%

161

1162

13.86%

M70-74

52

389

13.37%

47

394

11.93%

M75-79

8

99

8.08%

11

111

9.91%

M80+

0

19

0.00%

2

27

7.41%

Totals

13523

149243

9.06%

12994

146100

8.89%

Alright, so, we're still looking at a smaller qualification group and lower qualification rates.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

851

6.29%

743

5.72%

1-2 minutes

807

5.97%

754

5.80%

2-3 minutes

756

5.59%

659

5.07%

3-4 minutes

679

5.02%

648

4.99%

4-5 minutes

634

4.69%

534

4.11%

5-10 minutes

2791

20.64%

2707

20.83%

10-20 minutes

3606

26.67%

3602

27.72%

20> minutes

3399

25.13%

3347

25.76%

Totals

13523

12994

And we're still looking at a smaller Squeaker Pack: 27.56% in 2014 vs 25.69% in 2015.

Now the final numbers that you are after. What does this mean for the cutoff prediction?

Not surprisingly, nothing.

Because the Monumental numbers looks very similar to last year and it is a smaller feeder, the prediction stays exactly the same.

11498 runners, at this juncture in 2014, made the 147 seconds of margin. Taking the 2015 qualifiers, sorting on margin descending, the 11498th runner has a margin of 119 seconds.