Elections are about numbers, and right now the president's are bad. To understand why, consider 2008 as a reference point. That year, Barack Obama received 69,456,897 votes to John McCain's 59,934,814.

But a big chunk of President Obama's 9.5 million-vote advantage is probably gone. Let's break this down. According to exit polls, 44.8 million Republicans showed up to vote in 2004 while only 41.4 million did in 2008. Almost all those 3.4 million Republicans who stayed home have been energized by Mr. Obama's agenda and are now eager to vote against him.

Gallup found in April that Republicans were five points more likely to vote than Democrats. More recent measures, including by the Pew Research Center in June, show Republican voters displaying more intense interest than Democrats. If 2008 stay-at-home Republicans vote, Mr. Obama's margin would shrink by more than one-third (to 6.1 million). Similarly, the 2.4 million veterans who voted in 2004 but did not in 2008 could turn out in 2012. Mr. McCain's winning margin among vets was 10 points.

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Romney is behind in the polls. Still, I would not mind if we held the election today.

I think a great many people are holding out for Obama to somehow turn around the economy. Even Robert Riech indicated that it had better turn by September of Obama is waist deep in Lakota's DNA (s**t).

According to the exit polls, Mr. Obama won independents by eight points in 2008 (52% vs. 44% for Mr. McCain). But the July 1 CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Mr. Romney winning independents by seven points, 49% to 42%. The June 24 Gallup poll found Mr. Romney up by one among independents, 43% to 42%. Independents will shift back and forth, but if they split 49% to 49% (with the rest going to minor candidates), then Mr. Obama's vote total would be shaved by 1.1 million and Mr. Romney's would grow by an equal amount, cutting the president's margin to 1.4 million.

Among voters age 65 years or older, Mr. Obama lagged behind Mr. McCain by eight points, 45% to 53%. That margin has doubled to 16 points (41% vs. 57%) in the July 1 CNN/Opinion Research. In the June 24 Gallup, the gap among seniors is 15 points, 39% to 54%. A big gap in November implies that Mr. Obama would lose some undetermined number of Democratic or independent seniors.

Mr. Obama also has a problem with middle-class voters. In the June 24 Gallup, he led among those making up to $36,000 a year by 51% to 39%, and he trailed among those making $36,000-$90,000 by 44% to 51%, both well behind his 2008 pace.

If this is the best example of the board, it is going to be a long election season. The race is going to be close unless something really strange happens. it is too early to start predicting on the basis of polls. Obama wouldn't even go speak to his base, the NAACP instead he sent Biden, what a joke.

I suppose we shouldn&#8217;t be surprised to hear this kind of rhetoric from the flailing and failing Obama campaign. Axelrod and his cohorts have gotten outfought, outraised, and outclassed in two short months after having the field all to themselves for over a year. Yesterday, the campaign accused Mitt Romney of being a felon, which prompted a demand for an apology that will not be coming forthwith, almost assuredly.

Axelrod is not just a cheap demagogue, he&#8217;s also a cheap small-d democrat. Voters sent a Republican-controlled House to Washington specifically to force a change in policy, a message that Axelrod and Barack Obama ignored. The House, by the way, has passed budgets and more than a dozen jobs bills. It&#8217;s the Democratic-controlled Senate that has been the obstruction, refusing to pass budgets so that conference committees can resolve issues, and ignoring the House jobs bills altogether. Obama has shown zero leadership on this issue, griping about Republican dissent while ignoring completely that his own party has yet to cast one single supporting vote in three tries on his own budget proposals, and won&#8217;t even attempt to hold a vote on Obama&#8217;s tax proposals.

The actual &#8220;reign of terror,&#8221; for the sake of those as historically illiterate as Axelrod, took place during the French Revolution, when it turned bloody. The revolutionaries became as despotic as the monarchy they deposed, executing thousands for dissent and purported betrayal of the revolution. It&#8217;s actually the opposite of what Republicans are doing in Congress by opposing Obama&#8217;s agenda and attempting to push forward their own. That&#8217;s as ignorant an analogy as one might see in American politics.

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Just wait.

Right now the left hides behind an electoral map that is spring loaded to push over to Romney when those who think Obama can still resurrect the economy find out that Hope and Change was just Cock and Bull.

Desperate is because they see the tsunami coming and all the negative ads (theres that "gonna be above it all" schtik) can't stop it from swamping the Obama "Titanic" come November.

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