The Kansas City Royals suffered through something this past January 22, 2017 that very few will be able to relate to. The tragic, sudden death of young pitcher Yordano Ventura will no doubt be on the minds of the Royals as they get ready to play baseball this season. He will be missed by his teammates, manager, coaching staff, the entire organization, and the fans. From a baseball standpoint, Ventura was one of the few players the team was counting on with the incredible amount of players expected to file for free agency after the 2017 season. The Royals addressed three of the seven; one by trading star relief pitcher Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Jorge Soler. The next one was starting pitcher Danny Duffy, whom the Royals signed to four year extension for a guaranteed $60 million. Finally, they traded outfielder Jarrod Dyson to the Seattle Mariners for pitcher Nate Karns. The Royals still have to address the future of first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, center fielder Lorenzo Cain, as well as shortstop Alcides Escobar. Of course, the Royals could look much different next season, but in regards to the present, the team may have a little more than just one more run in them. Former first round pick Hunter Dozier should be ready to be the team's starting third baseman next season. Hosmer is the face of the franchise so it would be stupid if the Royals chose not to commit to him long term. And that leaves just Cain and Escobar, the two main pieces in a Milwaukee Brewers trade for right handed pitcher Zack Greinke after the 2010 season. If the Royals are confident in Paulo Orlando to be the team's long term right fielder, then Soler can play center in 2018, his natural position. Overall, this season is not as much a make or break season for the team as has been reported, assuming they step up and sign Hosmer. The Royals added outfielder/ first baseman Brandon Moss, who hit 30 home runs last season for the St. Louis Cardinals to replace designated hitter Kendrys Morales, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays as a free agent. After the sudden loss of Ventura, the Royals signed pitchers Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, both from the World Series Champion Chicago Cubs, to add some depth to their starting rotation. If the Royals want to return to the form of a year ago when they were coming off their first World Series Championship in 30 years, they need to get more out of outfielder Alex Gordon. Signed to a new four year, $72 million contract, the left hand hitting left fielder hit just .220 and had an on base plus slugging less than .700, all while missing time due to injury. Moustakas is coming off a season in which he played in just 27 games. Cain also missed significant time, playing in just 103 games. First baseman Hosmer saw his batting average drop 31 points last season and that could be a reason the Royals have chosen to wait instead of committing themselves long term. Whit Merrifield will be the team's starting second baseman with Soler getting the nod over Orlando in right field. The biggest concern right now for the Royals is the status of catcher Salvador Perez, who injured his knee during the World Baseball Classic. If Perez is out a long period of time, Drew Butera will be the starting catcher. Ironically, Perez' injury occurred during a game between Venezuela and Italy and it was a home plate collision with Butera that injured his knee. Initial hope is that the swelling in the knee will subside, but any loss of Perez will set the team back both offensively and defensively. The starting lineup I would start 2017 with for the Royals is Escobar SS, Moustakas 3B, Cain CF, Hosmer 1B, Soler RF, Moss DH, Perez C, Gordon LF, Merrifield 2B. The Royals bench will be led by Orlando, third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert, outfielder Billy Burns, infielders Raul Mondesi and Christian Colon and back up catcher Butera.The Royals best two starting pitchers last season were Duffy (12 wins, 3 losses, 188 strikeouts in just under 180 innings pitched) and Ian Kennedy (11-11, 3.68 earned run average). Adding Hammel and Wood give the team veteran depth but comes with questions. Hammel has traditionally been a very good first half pitcher, but has struggled mightily in the second half of each of the past two seasons. Wood is attempting to return to the starting rotation after spending most of the past two years as a relief pitcher. Duffy made a similar transition last season- maybe his presence can help Wood out. Jason Vargas made three starts last September after missing most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Karns has struck out 270 batters in just over 265 career innings pitched and hope is he will be a mainstay in the rotation at some point in the season. Chris Young is coming off a dreadful 2016, a product of a very bad walk rate of 4.4 per 9 innings pitched. It also did not help that he surrendered 28 home runs in just under 89 innings pitched.Having Kelvin Herrera gave Royals General Manager Dayton Moore the confidence necessary to trade Davis to the Cubs. Joakim Soria pitched to an over 4.00 ERA last season and nearly a 1.500 WHIP which needs to change if the Royals want to be as effective late in games as they have been over the past three seasons. The Royals do have a series of proven arms competing for spots, including Al Alburquerque, Bobby Parnell, Chris Withrow, and Brandon League. Karns could be a relief option, as well as Wood, of course.Left hand pitcher Matt Strahm should be able to help the Royals out this season, likely as a relief pitcher as the team looks to cut down his innings. Dozier may be stored away in Triple- A so he can get himself ready to be the team's starting third baseman next season. Outfielder Jorge Bonifacio is interesting as well, as his home run power could be penciled in to the Kansas City starting lineup in 2018. Peter O'Brien is probably best suited to be a designated hitter, but he does have some power. Almost enough not to ignore. Hope is, O'Brien gets a shot to be the team's designated hitter and if he does, Moss can move to right field to share some time with Soler. I am intrigued by 20 year- old catcher Meibrys Viloria, who seems possess a lot of the tools to be a solid, all around player.I think the Royals are more than a "Get the band together one last time" team. They should be able to hold their foundation together for a number of seasons and should perform much better than they did last season when they finished at 81-81. To me, this was an easy pick as Las Vegas gave them an over/ under number of 80.5. I will take the over, as the 2017 Royals will finish the season at 88-74, third place in the American League Central division. This, however, will be good enough to make the postseason as a Wild Card team. Please stay tuned to see where they will be headed to.

One of the most important things a new executive can do when joining a new organization is to get a sense of what direction the team is going. Perhaps more important for a new general manager or team president is for that person to use his own talents and have that come out in his players. In other words, a new GM needs to put his own stamp on the team. Sometimes that takes years to do, such is the case with the Atlanta Braves, a team that is in a complete rebuild. If the expectation is to win right away, the emphasis may be to add the big time player as opposed to a complementary piece. Nobody has backed up the definition of putting their stamp on their team like Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry DiPoto. DiPoto has built a reputation as one of the game's up and coming executive though he dealt with an uncomfortable situation at his last job in Los Angeles. DiPoto has been big on analytics. A philosophical difference between him and manager Mike Scioscia led to his resignation from the Angels. One of DiPoto's first decisions was to replace manager Lloyd McClendon with longtime aide Scott Servais. The Mariners then signed free agent outfielder Norichika Aoki (.287 batting average, 5 home runs, 26 runs batted in, .733 on base plus slugging in 93 games) to a contract to be the team's everyday left fielder. Aoki has been the definition of consistent as in his four big league seasons he has finished with batting averages of .288, .286, .285, .287, respectively, which by itself, is amazing. DiPoto then set out on a series of trades to acquire first baseman Adam Lind (.277, 20, 87, .820), center fielder Leonys Martin (.219, 5, 25, .576) and catcher Chris Iannetta (.188, 10, 34, .628). DiPoto also acquired two starting pitchers, Boston Red Sox left hander Wade Miley (11 wins, 11 losses, 4.46 earned run average, 147 strikeouts, just less than 194 innings pitched) and Tampa Bay Rays right handed pitcher Nate Karns (7-5, 3.67, 145, 147). Completing the overhaul, the Mariners traded for right handed relievers Joaquin Benoit (6-5, 2.34, 63, just over 65 with the San Diego Padres) and Evan Scribner (2-2, 4.35, 64, 60 with the Oakland Athletics and signed free agents Steve Cishek (2-6, 3.58, 4 saves, 48, just over 55 with the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals) and Joel Peralta (3-1, 4.34, 24, 29 with the Los Angeles Dodgers). The Mariners return three huge core pieces in 2016, including second baseman Robinson Cano (.287, 21, 89, .779). Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (18-9, 3.53, 191, just less than 202) continues to be one of the best in all of baseball. Designated hitter Nelson Cruz (.302, 44, 93, .936) continues to defy the odds by finishing with career highs in runs scored, hits, on base percentage, slugging percentage and total bases at age 34. Cano and Cruz are joined by third baseman Kyle Seager (.266, 26, 74, .779). This will constitute the middle of the order, though the addition of Lind will help out a lot. Outfielder Seth Smith (.248, 12, 42, .773) can be a wild card in the potency of the Mariners offense. If he can take his game up a level, which scouts have always said he has the ability to, as an offensive player, the Mariners lineup got a little deeper. Smith has had as good of a spring as any player in the sport, hitting over .500 with 20 spring training hits. Shortstop Ketel Marte (.283, 2, 17, .753) takes over everyday with incumbent Brad Miller dealt to the Rays in the Karns deal. Marte is a strong defender with an ability to be a solid hitter in regards to average, though he does not possess much power. The lineup I would go with would be Aoki LF, Marte SS, Cano 2B, Cruz DH, Lind 1B, Seager 3B, Smith RF, Iannetta C, Martin CF. The Mariners do not have much of an expanded or deep bench. However, catcher Steve Clevenger (.287, 2, 15, .740) served as a quality backup catcher for the Baltimore Orioles last season and may be able to balance out the offensive handicapped Iannetta. Infielder Luis Sardinas is in from Milwaukee and can play shortstop, second and third base. Veteran Franklin Gutierrez (.292, 15, 25, .974) is back with the Mariners after putting up solid numbers last season. The so called center fielder of the future has played the role of the figure in the game of operation, as injuries have threatened to ruin his career. Waiver pickup Dan Robertson is also another option for the bench, as is non roster invitees Ed Lucas and Mike Baxter. The Mariners biggest strength will be their starting pitching, led by Hernandez and veteran Hisashi Iwakuma (9-5, 3.54, 111, just less than 130). Left hander James Paxton (3-4, 3.90, 13 starts, 67 IP) was on the rise in 2014, but injuries plagued his 2015. Though he has had a rough spring, it seems as if he is in the right health to make an impact in the rotation. His presence may not initially be needed with the addition of Miley and Karns. The Mariners have also been waiting for right hander Taiwan Walker (11-8, 4.56, 157, just under 170) for a while now, but there seemed to be signs last season that the former top prospect has finally turned the corner. Karns gives the team a solid one through five, with left hander Mike Montgomery (4-6, 4.60, 16 starts, 90 innings) likely to play the role as long reliever. Perhaps Paxton is in the same role, but I expect to see Paxton to get his share of starts. I would not even rule out Seattle going to a six man rotation for a short period of time. The Mariners bullpen is the one part of this team that has over gone a major overhaul. Cishek will serve as the closer, with Benoit and Peralta serving as the bridge. Left hander Charlie Furbush (1-1, 2.08, 33 games, just less than 22 IP) will miss the start of the season and is extremely valued, leaving lefty Vidal Nuno (1-5, 3.74, 81 Ks, 89 IP) as a pitcher the Mariners will expect a lot out of. Scribner should be back by the end of April. Look for the Mariners to use Tony Lych, Donn Roach and Casey Coleman to hold temporary spot until Scribner, Furbush and Montgomery are used as the last three relievers. Of course, there is no sign that any Mariners starting pitcher (knock on wood) will miss opening day, so the longtime Royals and Rays prospect is ticketed to start the season in Seattle's bullpen.Top prospect Alex Jackson needs probably another season or two in the minor to develop. He should be watched this season as a player who can break out in the minors. He is clearly looked as a regular outfielder for the Mariners in the future. Infielder DJ Peterson is another to watch in the same way. Shortstop Drew Jackson hit .356 last season and could get a little bit of a more serious look this season. Right hander Edwin Diaz may be on the horizon for a September call up after averaging over a strikeout an inning. On the major league roster, look for Marte to take a big step and be a solid MLB regular shortstop by the end of the season. I liked the Mariners last season and was proven wrong, mostly because of injuries to Iwakuma and Paxton. Both have returned and the team did add Karns, which gives the Mariners one of the most underrated starting rotations in all of baseball. The biggest question, which I have asked about many teams, is how the new pieces will work out together. The Mariners have brought in a lot of new players, most of whom have never played together before. I like the fact that most players brought are of the complementary variety, meaning the three most impact full players are looked at as being figure heads in the clubhouse. The use of analytic stats led by DiPoto and Servais fit pretty well with the influx of players brought in. I can see the Mariners taking a big step from the 76 win season of a year ago. Las Vegas puts the Mariners at 83 wins for their over/ under, so I think odds makers are seeing a similar improvement. I have the Mariners doing even better than that, finishing at 89-73, first place in the American League West division. I pick the Mariners because of their talent but also because the lack of a front runner in the division and my predicted digressions (albeit temporary in some cases) of the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Angels.

It is that time of year again, with spring training getting under way in both Arizona and Florida. All sorts of outlets have produced their predictions for the 2016 season, with some varying based on the amount of computer generated statistics generated. In other words, fansgraphs and the PECOTA system, the two outlets that think baseball is a computer game and their computer generated stats are going to replace the players playing the game of baseball on the field, throw a bunch of data together and determine how all 30 teams will do. Many others simply look at what happened the season before and similarly repeat the teams that made the playoffs the previous season. Those sites looked terrible last season as six of the ten teams to make the playoffs in 2015 did not make the postseason in 2014. My theory has always been to respect all different type of predictions and judge their merit based off the reasons that are given. In year five of johnpielli.com's 30-1 MLB countdown previews, I take pride in the fact that I look at not only what the team did last season, but whether the team is on the rise or in decline. I also look at each team's previous off season and judge whether they improved or got worse. I study the minor league system and look at which players will come up this season and in the future. Will the team have players emerge as being better than they are? What injured players will either impact the team or be expected to and not back it up? In the end, I use the Las Vegas over/ under number to decide whether I think the team will finish above or below that number. And finally, I come up with 30 different win/ loss records, which if you add up all the teams wins and losses, the difference will be zero. I have made it to team number 24 and the first one that should be a little controversial. The Tampa Bay Rays were picked using the PECOTA system to win 91 games this season. Fangraphs also had them winning the American League East. The Rays of 2015 finished at 80-82 under first year manager Kevin Cash. They made a couple of trades, dealing left hand pitcher Jake McGee to the Colorado Rockies to get outfielder Corey Dickerson. They also added shortstop Brad Miller and designated hitter Logan Morrison from the Mariners, sending right hander Nate Karns to Seattle in the process. Outside of signing free agent first baseman/ outfielder Steve Pearce as a free agent from the Baltimore Orioles, the off season was relatively quiet. The Rays have one big strength and perhaps this is the reason the other outlets have the Rays doing so well. The Rays starting pitching staff is very good and when it is all completely assembled, they have the makings of one of the best in all of baseball. Chris Archer had 252 strikeouts and made the American League All Star team last season. Right hander Jake Odorizzi pitched to a 3.35 earned run average and averaged nearly a strikeout an inning. Left hander Drew Smyly, acquired in the trade that sent David Price to the Detroit Tigers, has pitched to a 2.52 ERA in 19 starts since joining the Rays. Left hander Matt Moore, winner of 17 games and made the All Star team in 2013, is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Right hander Alex Cobb, who was an emerging star through the 2013 and 2014 seasons, will likely be out until August as he recovers from the same operation. Adding to their strength will be left hander Blake Snell, who won 15 games, lost just 4 and pitched to a 1.41 ERA in 2015 in minor league action. Snell could break through and give the Rays an even bigger strength at the top of their starting rotation. Right handers Erasmo Ramirez (11-6, 3.75) and Alex Colome (8-5, 3.94) will round out the rotation until Cobb and Snell are ready. While I understand why the Rays are getting a lot of respect, starting pitching has turned into a six inning game. Any team that has a great set of starting pitchers needs to have a dependable bullpen to back them up. The trade of McGee to the Rockies has weakened a weakness. The thought that teams not expecting to contend do not need a closer applies to the Rays, who in 2015 used Brad Boxberger (4-10, 3.71, 41 saves, 74 strikeouts in 63 innings pitched) in that role. Boxberger has proven to be a dependable relief pitcher, but is not a major league closer. Right hander Danny Farquhar (1-8, 5.12 in 43 games) comes over from Seattle in the Morrison/ Miller trade and is hoping to return to his 2014 form (3-1, 2.66, 81 K, 71 IP). The emergence of left hander Xavier Cedeno (4-1, 2.09, 63 games) allowed for the Rays to trade McGee, a fellow left hander. In order for the Rays to have a top bullpen, three things need to happen. Boxberger has to pitch to a level he has never pitched to before. Farquhar needs to repeat his 2014 and Cedeno needs to repeat his 2015. Unfortunately, the chance of all three of those happening is about the same chance that Ohio Governor John Kasich or retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson will become the next President of the United States. Sadly, the drop off after Boxberger, Farquhar and Cedeno is very steep with Colome and former Indians right hander Ryan Webb (1-0, 3.20, 40 games) the next in line. The Rays will, as usual, have a difficult time scoring runs. However, it was the performance of one player on the defensive side of the ball that got more attention than has even been seen for a defender. Kevin Kiermaier hit an average .263, 10 HR, 40 RBI but did have 12 triples and 18 stolen bases. It was his defensive metrics that were off the charts as he was responsible for an unbelievable 42 defensive runs saved for the 2015 season. He led the American League with a Defensive Wins Above Replacement of 5.0, a total zone rating of 24 as well as 15 outfield assists. However, similar to a player winning the triple crown, hitting .400 or any other statistic that is not commonly reached, it cannot be expected that Kiermaier repeats those same numbers going forward. Outside of other reasons, players generally depreciate each season as a defensive player, making it very hard to repeat those defensive stats. And many will agree that Kiermaier is a borderline starting offensive player, meaning if it was not for his defense, his offensive stats may not be quality enough to continue to be in the everyday lineup.Center fielder Desmond Jennings could do a lot to close the gap in the quality of the Rays offense. However, Jennings has battled through a series of injuries and under performing play over the past five seasons that has puzzled the organization. If Jennings can prove to be a late bloomer, than he stands to take starting time away from right fielder Steven Souza (.225, 16, 40, .717 on base plus slugging) and even the immortal Kiermaier. He has to step his game up though. Dickerson (.312, 24, 76, .931) had a huge 2014 season for the Rockies and hit over .300 with 10 HR in 65 games last season. Third baseman Evan Longoria (.270, 21, 73, .764) and breakout second baseman Logan Forsythe (.281, 17, 68, .804) will lead a very top heavy offense. Dickerson could be an ideal lead off batter, but in Tampa Bay will need to bat towards the middle of the order. Shortstop Miller (.258, 11, 46, .740) is a younger, strictly left hand batting version of the 2015 Asdrubal Cabrera (.265, 15, 58, .744), who is off to the New York Mets. Morrison has struggled to become the power hitter the Florida Marlins though he would be when he came up as a top prospect in 2010. Perhaps the Rays can point to the fact that he hit the most home runs in a season for Seattle in 2015 (17) since his 2011 total of 23 with the Marlins. First baseman James Loney did hit .280, but his slugging percentage of .357 was almost lower than any regular player in the American League and was only higher than teammate Rene Rivera, whose .178, .213, .275 slash line was as atrocious as could be imagined. The Rays did bring in catcher Hank Conger (.229, 11, 33, .729) from the Astros. Curt Casali (.238, 10, 18 in 101 at bats) is the backup and will battle with Rivera and Conger for a spot on the team. The lineup I would go with is Kiermaier/ Jennings CF, Forsythe 2B, Dickerson LF, Longoria 3B, Morrison DH, Loney 1B, Souza/ Jennings RF, Conger C, Miller SS. The Rays do have some depth on their bench with infielder Richie Shafer and shortstop Tim Beckham ready to make an impact at the big league level. Perhaps both can take some playing time away from Loney and Miller. Outfielder Brandon Guyer (.265, 8, 28) is a solid forth outfielder, but will be the Rays fifth outfielder. Pearce is likely to make the team with former prospect Nick Franklin trying to make a case for the Rays. Snell and right hander Brent Honeywell are two top strikeout pitchers ready to make an impact in the big leagues. Snell will be up after he passes the Stupor, I mean Super Two eligibility. Honeywell could possibly be a September call up. Actually, because of the way the Rays run their business, we will not see Honeywell until 2017. Shortstops Daniel Robertson (acquired in the Ben Zobrist trade of a year ago) and Wily Adames (acquired in the Price trade) look to both be solid future infielders. Both need at least another season or two in the minors though. Right hander Jake Guerrieri is about another year away, but looks to be a plus pitcher as well. Las Vegas put Tampa's over under at 78, below their 2015 win total of 80. When I look at the young pitching the Tampa Bay Rays possess, I think of the 2015 New York Mets. When I think of the potential woes I foresee with this team as hitters, I also think of the 2015 Mets. The Tampa Bay Rays will not get themselves a Carlos Gonzalez to help their offense out, even if they were a Car-Go away. And while I will not assume that the Rays will trade Archer, Moore and/ or Odorizzi, I also cannot assume they will add a bat. It is obvious they would not do it anyways, as it may keep the owner from reporting a profit in his business. I have the Rays at 73-89, last place in the American League East division.

We have now hit that time of year. Pitchers and catchers have already reported to some teams' camps and others will be over the next couple of days. Though opening day is a little ways away, baseball has started in the eyes of the die hard. The off season has come to a conclusion and the focus is on what to expect out of the upcoming series of baseball months. It also means the return of www.johnpielli.com 's 30-1 MLB countdown previews, the more controversial series of team baseball previews. All you have to do is go to the same generic websites and read the same predictions. They all have the teams positioned the same. The teams that made the postseason last year are rewarded in the minds of the pickers and are picked to finish in the top of their respective leagues/ divisions. The teams that did not do so well in 2014 are all predicted to finish at the bottom of the division- unless they had a big off season, where in some cases, they get expectations that they cannot fulfill. My predictions are based on how I perceive each roster looks. I have studied the 2014 MLB team, its 2014- 2015 off season, their minor league system and have come up with an overall outlook for 2015. I also use the Las Vegas over- unders to judge the amount of wins I think a team will net for the upcoming season. In some cases, my outlook is completely different from the likes of baseball prospectus (almost always is), baseball america, MLB dot com and other sites. As in past years, I am always up for the debate so I look forward to hearing from you. As always, thanks and "I'll see you on the other side." The 2014 Tampa Bay Rays were 36-49 entering the month of July. They had their best month, going 17-6 in July when once again, the organization quit on them. The Rays traded their best pitcher, not just in 2014, but in the history of the franchise, David Price, to the Detroit Tigers for a return that was less than market value. Getting LHP Drew Smyly and SS Nick Franklin was nowhere near enough of a return for a franchise pitcher with another season of club control. The team managed to finish the season by playing 6 games under .500 and a lot of that had to be credited to manager Joe Maddon. Whether the situation with getting a new stadium is the biggest deal or whether the lack of revenue and interest in winning coming from ownership is more of a big deal than it gets credit for, the Rays seem to not have the resources to be on the same field as their competition. Their recent run of success, which included six straight winning seasons (before last year) and a World Series appearance in 2008 may be the best stretch of baseball we will see from this team in a long time. See, the Rays were rewarded for the bad baseball we saw from the team's first decade. To get back on that level, history says they will have to lose for a little while again. The man who was credited with changing the fortune of the Tampa Bay farm system was Andrew Friedman. Friedman likely saw the writing on the wall when he accepted his job with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The same can be said about manager Maddon, who left take over behind the bench of the Chicago Cubs. Cleveland Indians bullpen coach Kevin Cash takes over as manager. The Rays off season picked up from where the regular season left off, as they dealt 2B Ben Zobrist and SS Yunel Escobar to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for John Jaso and two minor leaguers. They then dealt Will Myers to the Padres, picking up OF Steven Sousa from the Nationals in the process. They then traded OF Matt Joyce to the Angels for RHP Kevin Jepsen. The Rays also dealt RHP Jeremy Hellickson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a couple of minor leaguers. Free agent wise, the Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera to play SS and RHP Ernesto Frieri to fill out a spot in the bullpen. In spite of all the trades, pitching remains the team's strength. Alex Cobb (10-9, 2.87 in 27 starts) is by far the team's ace. In all probability, he will be the next one dealt after he breaks out in 2015 (Assuming he stays healthy). Smyly (9-10, 3.24 in 28 games, 25 starts) was 3-1, 1.70 in his 7 starts with the Rays. Chris Archer (10-9, 3.33 in 32 starts) allows for the team to still have three above average starting pitchers. RHP Jake Odorizzi (11-13, 4.13, 31 starts) and Nate Karns (2 starts in 2014) will round out the rotation. LHP Matt Moore (2 starts in 2014 after winning 17 games in 2013) will return to the rotation in June or July. Alex Colome (2-0, 2.66, 5 games, 3 starts in 2014) will also battle for a spot in the starting rotation. The bullpen is led by LHP Jake McGee (5-2, 17 saves, 1.89 in 73 games) and RHP Grant Balfour, who had a down 2014 after signing a free agent contract with the Rays last off season. Balfour saw his ERA rise almost 2 and a half runs a game to 4.91 and had his lowest strikeout per 9 IP rate of his career. Cesar Ramos was traded to the Angels and Joel Peralta to Friedman's Dodgers so the importance of guys like Brad Boxberger (5-2, 2.37, 53 games), Jepsen (0-2, 2.63, 74 games for the Angels) and Frieri (1-4, 7.38 in 48 games for Angels and Pirates) will be magnified. Boxberger seemed comfortable in his new role, as did Jepsen, but Frieri didn't seem to have a clue in 2014. While there is a chance the Rays pitching staff can hold itself together, the offense is unlikely to. Evan Longoria (.253, 22, 91, playing all 162 games) is the franchise player and will need some others to step up and help. Longoria hopefully can get his average up but he will be pitched around unless somebody can hit behind him. James Loney (.290, 9, 69) could be that guy, but he tapered off after a great start to last season. Sousa (3-23 in 2014 but made an incredible catch to save Jordan Zimmermann's no hitter to end the season). He did hit .350 in AAA last season, finishing with 18 HR and 75 RBI. Desmond Jennings (.244, 10, 36, 15 SB) has to step his game up. He was hurt last year but struck out 108 times in 123 games. Kevin Kiermaier (.263, 10, 35), David DeJesus (.248, 6, 19) and Brandon Guyer (.266, 3, 26) will all vie for the other starting OF spot. Jaso (.264, 9, 30) and Rene Rivera (.252, 11, 44) will do the catching with Jaso also sharing some DH time with DeJesus. The middle infield for the Rays has a chance to be good. Cabrera (.241, 14, 61 for Cleveland and Washington) will be at SS and Logan Forsythe (.223, 6, 26) is the leading candidate to play 2B. Franklin (13-81 with Seattle and Tampa Bay), should get a chance to play everyday if he can earn the job. Former number one overall draft pick Tim Beckham may be ready to make his debut this season. Daniel Robertson (acquired from the Athletics in one of the many trades) looks like he may be the best of the talent in the middle infield. He may not be ready to play in the big leagues this season though. Here is the lineup I would go with: Jennings CF, Jaso DH, Longoria 3B, Loney 1B, Sousa LF, Cabrera SS, Rivera C, Franklin 2B, Kiermaier/ Guyer RF. PECOTA, used by Baseball Prospectus, states a handful of well thought out reason why the Rays can win 86 games this season. That is a 7 1/2 game increase over the Las Vegas over/ unders (78 1/2). I understand the point of run prevention, but do not think it will help a team that does not score runs. PECOTA vastly overstated the amount of runs the Rays will score this season. Additionally, another thing PECOTA fails to do is respect the competition level of the other teams in the AL East. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles and even Yankees can all have distinct advantages over Tampa Bay this season. The Rays have to win over 50 % of their 72 division games to have a shot at 86 wins. I do not see the chance of that happening. They are also suspecting a lot out of Sousa and Franklin, neither of whom have proven anything at the major league level. I like the pitching and defense, but this team will score fewer runs than any team in MLB, mark my words. And though Kevin Cash may be a good MLB manager down the road, the team will miss Maddon's presence on that bench. So, here it is... The 2015 Tampa Bays will finish with a 69-93 record, last place in the AL East and worst record in the entire American League.