The latter is clearly a case of how “goofy” stuff happens. Chosen by the Nationals with the No. 9 pick last year, Crow reportedly asked for a $9 million signing bonus and negotiations ran into a stone wall. Because they were even worse in 2008, the Nats have their chance at a pitcher deemed better than Crow, and the wonder is whether they'll be willing to meet Strasburg's even higher price.

The first round hasn't been particularly fruitful to the Padres, either. Of their past dozen first-round picks, only three have worn the Padres' major league uniform – shortstop Khalil Greene (2002), pitcher Tim Stauffer ('03) and second baseman Matt Antonelli (2006), a September call-up last year.

There's been considerable improvement in the Padres' picks since the Bush debacle, with left fielder Chase Headley, catcher Nick Hundley and starting pitcher Josh Geer all products of the 2005 draft. Headley and Hundley were taken in the second round, Geer in the third.

Talk about the longest of shots, though. Major league teams can't trade up or down – or even trade drafted players until a full year later – but there's not much doubt about what would happen if the Nats and Mariners pass on Strasburg for any reason on June 9.

“Put it this way,” Towers said. “I'd find it awful hard to believe Stephen Strasburg would be there for the Pittsburgh Pirates with the fourth pick.”