tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47041488902648435952015-07-27T04:49:52.263-07:00Raman's strategic analysisB.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.comBlogger1664125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-11681547914068421412013-05-14T22:19:00.001-07:002013-05-14T22:19:28.408-07:00CHINESE PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT TO INDIA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Prime Minister Li Kequiang of China, who took over<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>in March last, is to visit India, Pakistan, Switzerland and Germany during his first round of overseas visits after taking over as the Prime Minister.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. His clubbing together his visits to India and Pakistan on his way to Europe indicates the equal importance which the newly-elected Chinese leadership attaches to China’s relations with India and Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The visit to India from May 19 to 21 threatened to come under a cloud following the intrusion by a platoon of PLA troops into Indian <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>territory in the Daulat Beg Oldie area of Eastern Ladakh on April 15 and their camping in tents there for nearly three weeks.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.The resulting stand-off between Chinese and Indian troops of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) created trans-Line of Actual Control tensions and led to demands in India for the postponement of the visit of our Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid to Beijing to make preparations for Li’s visit. The stand-off also revived the distrust of China in Indian strategic circles.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. The two countries managed to avert an embarrassing postponement of the visits by agreeing on the restoration of the status quo ante. The Chinese troops then vacated the Indian territory into which they had intruded.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. Two questions remain unclear. Firstly, why did the Chinese troops intrude into this area even at the risk of their intrusion casting a shadow on the first visit of their new Prime Minister to India? Secondly, was there an Indian quid pro quo for the Chinese withdrawal? Sections of the Indian media had reported that India had<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>agreed to remove some temporary infrastructure like bunkers for sheltering patrolling Indian troops from its territory. If media accounts of the quid pro quo are correct, it could ultimately turn out to be to the detriment of our sovereignty claims in that area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.While the Ministry of Defence of the Government of India has been a little more forthcoming on the Indian right to build defensive and logistics infrastructure in our territory, the Ministry of External Affairs has been evasive.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8.Ever since Xi Jinping took over as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in November last year, he has been talking of the need for a border settlement “ as early as possible.” The previous leaderships used to talk of the need for time and patience in reaching a border accord and for not allowing this to come in the way of the development of the bilateral relations in the economic and other fields. India had been going along with this formulation of the past leaderships.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. From the various remarks of Xi<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>on Sino-Indian relations since he took over, it would seem that he wants a time-frame for finding a border accord without allowing the pressure for a time-frame coming in the way of strengthening relations in other fields. The recent intrusion, in this regard, could be interpreted as an attempt by the new leadership to press the need for a solution “ as early as possible” without letting the negotiations drag on endlessly.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. It would be in India’s interest too to work for a border accord “as early as possible.” At the same time, India should not accept the Chinese formulation that the absence of a border accord should not come in the way of the economic and other relations. This formulation has immensely benefitted China.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11.Much of the delay till now has been due to Beijing dragging its feet on exchanging maps of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>the line of actual control, which has to be the first step. During the forthcoming visit of the Chinese Prime Minister, we should make it clear that we too want a border accord “ as early as possible”, but this would depend upon the Chinese taking the first step of exchanging maps of the LAC which have to be the basis of further negotiations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. We should also make it clear that relations in the economic and other fields cannot improve without satisfactory progress in the border talks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>(15-5-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com206tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-88052324740726202572013-05-14T01:19:00.003-07:002013-05-14T01:19:43.117-07:00STATE OF MY CANCER---AN UPDATE<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">(Medical history. Will be 77 in August next )<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">27-9-2009—Heavy blood in urine after I returned from evening walk. Only one episode.Underwent cystoscopy in Apollo Main, Chennai. Urologist—Dr. Murali Venkataraman.Biopsy result: “ Bladder biopsies superficial and deep and prostatic chips showing features of a high grade carcinoma. The morphology is suggestive of a prostatic adenocarcinoma. Immunobiochemistry is advised for confirmation.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Gleeson score test was not done. At the time of bleeding my PSA was around 4 only.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Full body PET CT scan was done on 3-11-09. Its conclusion:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Known case of high-grade carcinoma of the prostate.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Enlarged prostate with hetrogenous increased metabolic activity predominantly in the left half of the gland and in the intravesical component involving the bladder base. No obvious involvement of seminal vesicles. Metabolically active left obturator and internal illac lymadenopathy--- metastasis.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Hypermetabolic skeletal metastasis involving the right aia of sacrum and left inferior public ramus.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Severe urinal bleeding on the night of November 1,2009. Stopped on its own<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Dr. Murali Venkataraman and Dr. I Raja, Oncologist of Apollo, Chennai, advised me to undergo total androgen blocade. Was given one Lucrin<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>depot injection once a quarter from November 18,2009. Took one tablet of Calutide 50 daily.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">My PSA level, which was already normal, came down below one.Dr. Venkataraman stopped the Lucrin depot injection from November 18,2011. Felt<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>after two years of injection, it could make my bones fragile. Continued taking Calutide 50.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">My PSA level started going up from Feb 11,2012, ( 1.67) and reached 14.28 on November 27,2012<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In November,2012, started feeling weak, legs swollen, pain while walking, gasping.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">My haemoglobin level was taken in Apollo Main 5.9.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Ultrasound scan in Bharath Scan showed: <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Bladder diffusely thickened measuring 4.8 mm.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Presence of multiple polypoidal growths noted within the urinary bladder, largest measuring 78 + 50 mm.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Significant postvoid residual urine in the bladder vol 205 ml”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Volume of prostate is 17 ml.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“It shows altered echo pattern.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Evidence of calcification. “<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Admitted in Fortis Malar, Chennai, hospital under care of Dr. Pari, Urologist on Dec 3,2012. Cystoscopy , CT scan and biopsy were done. Cystoscopy <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>conclusion :<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Bladder tumour.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Prostate fossa—Normal<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Large tumour from anterior wall of bladder 7 cm extending from bladder neck.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Biopsy conclusion:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Papillary urothelial neoplasm---high grade.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Extent of invasion – Lamina propria<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Lymphatic/vascular invasion---Not detected.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Histological type---Usual.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Pattern of growth---Nodular.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The CT scan in Malar Fortis did not indicate any abnormality in liver.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Overall diagnosis of Dr. Pari:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ CT whole abdomen showed enhancing bladder growth with dilated and thickened perivesial lymphatic.Large hiatus hernia”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">On his recommendation underwent 36 doses of radiation in Apollo Cancer Hospital under care of Dr. Ratna Devi, Radiologist, from January 2,2013 to Feb 23,2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">On her advice, a PET CT scan of the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>abdomen was taken in the Apollo Cancer hospital, Chennai, on April 29,2013. Observations: <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Multiple hypodense lesions are seen in both lobes of liver, largest in segment V measures 3.5 + 4.7 cms. No focal lesion seen. Portal vein is normal. Intra hepatic biliary radicals are not dilated.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Enlarged retroperitoneal, retro crural and bilateral common iliac nodes noted, largest paraaortic node measures 1.9 + 1.4 cms.Ne mesenteric or peritoneal deposits. No ascites.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Hypodense lesion noted in right adrenal gland measures 2.0 + 0.8 cms.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Prostate measures 3.8 + 2.6 + 4.2 cms.No focal lesions.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Bladder wall irregularly thickened. The seminal vesicles are normal. No significant pelvic adenopathy.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Paraoesophageal hiatus hernia noted.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Multiple subpleural and parenchymal nodules are seen in visualised lung bases.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Hypermetabolic hepatic, right adrenal, retroperitoneal and bilateral common iliac nodal and marrow metastases.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ No other demonstrable, significant metabolically active disease in rest of the abdominal and pelvic regions.’<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Side-effects of radiation that still continue 10 weeks after radiation was completed:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -36pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(a)<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Burning sensation while passing urine. Urispass of no benefit,<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -36pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(b)<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Periodic constipation aggravating a long-standing piles complaint.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -36pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(c)<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Severe flatulence causing discomfort in lower part of abdomen all the time.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 18pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">(d). Severe &amp; frequent belching. Sucrafil and Domstahl of no benefit<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 18pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Dr. Sankar Srinivasan, Oncologist, Apollo Cancer Hospital, has been my consultant since May 9,2013. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 18pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 18pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.Raman, 11-5-2013. Will be 77 in August.<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-90052923576079933172013-05-10T16:19:00.002-07:002013-05-10T16:19:42.309-07:00IMPACT OF PAK ELECTIONS ON TIES WITH INDIA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">There is a need to restrain euphoric expectations from the positive statements on relations with India coming out of some mainstream Pakistani political leaders such as Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML—N).<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.Nawaz Sharif, in particular, has gone out of his way in befriending some of the Indian journalists covering the just-ended Pakistani election campaign and expressing his intention to improve relations with India and hold an enquiry into the Kargil military conflict of 1999, which, according o him, was initiated by Gen.Pervez Musharraf, the then Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), without his (Nawaz’s) knowledge.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. Such statements have created unwarranted expectations of better India-Pakistan relations in sections of the Indian media.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.The assessment in media circles in Pakistan is that the PML (N) may emerge as the largest single party in the elections being held on May 11 followed by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) and the united front of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the Awami National Party (ANP), which have been viewed by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as liberal parties and have been the targets of violent attacks by the TTP to disrupt their poll prospects.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.Whoever comes out on top in the elections, the period after the elections will see competitive attempts to form a new coalition to rule the country. During the period of the coalition formation, foreign policy, except<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>the policy towards the Afghan Taliban and on opposition to the US war on global terrorism, particularly the use of the Drone strikes by the US against targets in Pakistani territory, is expected to occupy a low priority.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6.Better relations with India will be a minefield. The sensitivities of the Army and the fundamentalist and jihadi organisations may have to be taken into consideration by the mainstream parties doing well in the elections before they take any major initiative for a policy change in a positive direction. They have to go very slow and keep down their enthusiasm. Better relations with India are, therefore, unlikely to be for tomorrow unless the PML (N)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>comes out with an absolute majority of its own.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.India’s immediate policy interest ought to be not in the prospects for a quick improvement in the bilateral relations , but in the prospects for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>better internal stability and better internal security in Pakistan with a genuine control over the activities of the TTP, the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and other jihadi organisations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. India has had a contentious relationship with Pakistan ever since the two countries became independent in 1947.If this contentious relationship continues for some more years, we can live with it provided the new ruling dispensation in Pakistan shows the courage and foresight to take on the fundamentalist and jihadi organisations and defeat them in the interest of the people of Pakistan and at the same time persuade the Army to co-operate with the civilian leadership in this direction.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. If and when the fundamentalist and jihadi organisations are removed from the scene, the obstacles in the way of better ties with India will get gradually diluted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>(11-5-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter : @SORBONNE75<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>)<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-83754454970615970102013-05-07T20:10:00.002-07:002013-05-07T20:10:29.111-07:00PAKISTAN: ELECTIONS OF QUESTIONABLE VALUE<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The reported accident at an election meeting in Lahore on May 7,2013, at which Imran Khan, the leader of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>was injured requiring hospitalisation, has added to the unpredictability of the Pakistani elections being held on May 11.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.The election campaign has already lost much of its value due to the systematic violent campaign of intimidation and retribution unleashed by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against the three perceived liberal parties ---namely, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP), which has resulted in about 100 deaths since the campaign began a month ago.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3.The calculated reluctance of the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif ( PML-N) and the PTI of Imran to condemn the violence partly out of intimidation and partly out of selfish electoral motives of gains has made the elections, which should have marked an important landmark in the coming of age of Pakistani democracy after five years of uninterrupted civilian rule, anything but a genuine exercise in democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.Public disillusionment with the democratic process is bound to increase. The beneficiaries will be the Army and the religious groups enjoying the patronage of the Army and political forces allied with the Army. The elections might take the country further away from whatever little liberal influence the country has and make the fundamentalist and jihadi forces the continued arbiters of Pakistan’s future.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.In maintaining silence in the face of the Taliban’s violence, the PML (N) and the PTI have been short-sighted in calculating their electoral gains of questionable value and closing their eyes to the damage being inflicted to the cause of democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6.The PTI may still do well despite the injuries to Imran Khan in the vital closing stages of the campaign. The PPP, the MQM and the ANP may retain their following in their traditional areas of support in Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa (KP) and the Seraiki areas of Southern Punjab, but the injuries sustained by the democratic process in Pakistan will take a long time to heal. The religious fundamentalist and jihadi forces will continue to hold the country to ransom for many more years to come.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. Instead of presenting a united front to the fundamentalist and jihadi forces determined to keep the country bleeding till the fundamentalist forces succeed in capturing power, the partisan electoral calculations of the non-fundamentalist forces and their inability to unite against these dark forces will ensure that Pakistan remains on the road to darkness despite five years of seeming civilian democracy. (8-5-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>)<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-87251660466737565932013-05-06T19:29:00.004-07:002013-05-06T19:29:59.878-07:00NEW JIHADI MAGAZINE IN ENGLISH FOCUSES ON SOUTH ASIA, INCLUDING AFGHANISTAN & INDIA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">&nbsp;</span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">SITE, an Internet monitoring group, has drawn attention to a new web-based jihadi magazine in English called “Azan”.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.According to SITE, the magazine is believed to have been started by jihadis in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its first web issue appeared on May 5,2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The English jihadi magazine, which is apparently meant to cater to English-literate Muslims in South Asia, including Afghanistan, is similar to “Inspire”. the English jihadi magazine of Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula operating from Yemen, which has a readership among the Muslims of South India. Some Muslims arrested by the Bengaluru police last year were alleged by the Police to have been motivated by the articles carried by “Inspire”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.It is not yet clear who has started “Azan”. One suspect is the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is the Pakistani Taliban. The other suspect is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Al Qaeda headquarters in the South Waziristan area of Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">An article attacks the Pakistan Army for turning its back on traditional enemy India to fight in the tribal areas. It appeals to young Pakistani soldiers to turn away from the military. “Azan” says it considers the entire Pakistani<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>state apparatus – from the army to police to intelligence agencies – as the enemy. It also carries an article on the evils of democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. It appeals to Muslims around the world to come up with technology to hack into or manipulate Drones. It said the Drones were affecting the jihad in the Waziristan area of Pakistan and represented a challenge to the Ummah.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.It says: “With the death of so many Muslim assets, this is one of the utmost important issues that the Ummah must unite and come up with an answer to. Any opinions, thoughts, ideas and practical implementations to defeat this Drone technology must be communicated to us as early as possible because these would aid the Ummah greatly in its war against the Crusader-Zionist enemy.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. The magazine carries extracts from past speeches of the late Osama bin Laden and Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Afghan Taliban, and carries articles on the state of the jihad in Syria, Mali and other places. ( 7-5-2013)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-23565418098642189412013-05-04T20:18:00.002-07:002013-05-04T20:18:43.846-07:00BEIJING UNDERLINES PLA'S ROLE IN WESTERN CHINA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">According to the Xinhua news agency, the Xinjiang authorities have arrested 11 more suspected terrorists in connection with the investigation of a violent incident on April 23,2013, in a town in Kashgar’s Bachu county, 1200 kms south-west of Urumqi, in which 21 persons allegedly <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>belonging to different communities were killed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. Since the clash, 19 arrests have been made by the police from the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Kashgar Prefecture, the Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Urumqi.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The Xinjiang Police have blamed the clash on a new terrorist group headed by one <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Qasim Muhammat, which, according to them, was founded in September 2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. The Police have alleged that since <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>early December 2012, the members of this group used to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>gather at the house of one Muhanmetemin Barat, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>to undergo training with the help of video clips.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. The Police further alleged that in March, they fabricated explosive devices and tested them. The clash occurred when the Police and some members of the local community co-operating with the police tried to arrest them.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. The World Uighur Congress (WUC) based in Munich and the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples’ Organisation (UNPO) based in Holland have strongly questioned the police version and called upon the European Parliament to urge an international enquiry into the incident.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.The Chinese authorities are worried that despite frequent occurrence of violent incidents in different parts of Xinjiang, they have not been able to convince the international community that these incidents are due to terrorism sponsored from outside.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. In an article contributed to the “Global Times” of the Communist Party of China, an associate research fellow of the Sociology Institute with the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences has stated: “The Bachu incident <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>reflects the severe social conflicts within Xinjiang. In recent years, Xinjiang has achieved substantial progress in terms of economic development, the social insurance system and people's livelihoods. However, the social conflicts in Xinjiang remain complicated.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“While the policies made by local authorities are mainly to improve the economy, they are still inadequate in fully and timely responding to the political demands of ethnic groups. Social conflicts have been accumulating rather than being resolved.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“The Bachu incident has aroused international attention, and external observers mainly cast doubt on whether this violent attack was really terrorism. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“The nature of terrorist attacks in China is not very different with that in Western countries. They are, cruelly and inhumanely, targeted randomly at innocent civilians. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“What's different is that the terrorist attacks in Western countries can be traced to external input, while those in Xinjiang have shown a tendency to come from inside.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“There have been terrorist activities in Xinjiang, but so far there hasn't been enough evidence to show a concrete terrorist organization exists. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“A terrorist organization needs an explicit political doctrine, leading figures and a set of organizational bodies to raise funds, train its staff, purchase arms and support logistics. Judging from this, there is no terrorist organization in Xinjiang. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“The terrorist activities are committed mainly under the influence of terrorist thought and partly because of dissatisfaction with local governments and the Han people. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“In the long run, violent terrorism is likely to take place in Xinjiang again, and a terrorist organization in the real sense may emerge. But terrorism is preventable and its head can be lowered. It depends on whether we conduct solid work.” <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9.The PLA’s concerns over the internal security situation in the peripheral regions inhabited by Tibetans and Uighurs were reflected at a meeting convened by the Central Military Commission at Beijing on May 2,2013, to underline the PLA’s role in the economic development and internal stability of China’s soft Western region.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10.According to Xinhua, addressing the meeting, Xu Qiliang, Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, said the military should prioritize improving people's livelihoods and addressing issues that affect their most immediate interests, while participating in the development of western regions.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11.He asked the PLA <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>to make utmost efforts to maintain border security, enhance solidarity between the military, local governments and the public, as well as to uphold ethnic solidarity.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12.Xinhua has quoted him as saying as follows: “The prosperity, development and stability of western regions are of strategic importance to national security and development. The military should <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>be fully aware that helping develop the west boosts the military's capacity to carry out diversified tasks.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13. There are no indications that the meeting might have been triggered by the Indo-Chinese stand-off in Eastern Ladakh, but the PLA’s inability to strengthen internal security in the Tibetan and Uighur areas and signs of continuing anti-Han alienation among the Tibetans and Uighurs is a factor that needs to be continuously monitored and assessed by Indian policy makers.( 5-5-2013)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-40784755408890503252013-05-02T20:55:00.003-07:002013-05-02T20:55:43.037-07:00CHINA: TIME FOR A CHANGE OF STRATEGY<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">It is more than two weeks now since a platoon of the PLA of China moved about 19 kms into Indian-claimed territory in Eastern Ladakh which, according to India, is on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LOAC) and set up a temporary camp with tents.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.Media reports suggest that the Chinese action seems to be in retaliation for India strengthening its military-related infrastructure around the Daulat Beg Oldie area within Indian-claimed LOAC.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. Three flag meetings at the level of local military commanders have not persuaded the Chinese authorities to vacate the Indian territory occupied by them. The Chinese attitude has been deliberately vague and evasive. It is not even clear whether the Chinese are projecting their vacation as a quid pro quo for India suspending its work on its infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. Ever since Rajiv Gandhi as the Prime Minister visited China in 1988 and had a cordial meeting with Deng Xiao-Ping, the two countries have been following a policy of continuing with the border talks while not allowing the lack of progress in it to affect the development of bilateral relations in the political and economic fields. They have also been following a policy of not taking any action that could affect peace and tranquillity across the LOAC.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. While de jure adhering to the various confidence-building measures agreed to by <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the two countries, the Chinese have de facto been trying to change the ground rules in their favour through a series of steps the implications of which were not initially grasped by India.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. Firstly, they have avoided for over 20 years exchanging maps indicating the LOAC. As a result, they have sought to make where the LOAC lays a matter of conjecture suiting them than settled fact. Secondly, they went back on the understanding reached between our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh and their former Prime Minister Mr. Wen Jiabao that any border adjustments in the Arunachal Pradesh area <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>(Eastern sector) should not affect populated areas. Thirdly, they unilaterally introduced a drastically reduced measurement of the length of the disputed border in the Ladakh sector in a disguised attempt to pave the way for inducting Pakistan as an interested party in the Western sector at a suitable opportunity. And now, fourthly, they have unilaterally sought to change the perceived, but not yet marked LOAC thereby preparing the ground for increasing their sovereignty claims in this area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.While<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>subtly changing the ground situation in their favour and to the detriment of India, they have fully benefitted economically from the agreement not to let the border dispute affect the relations in the political and economic fields. China has become India’s biggest trading partner with a huge surplus trade balance in its favour. The Chinese manufacturing industry has benefited immensely from its ability to export its goods to the Indian market. India has emerged as the largest market for Chinese construction companies which have won more construction contracts in India than in any other country of the world. The relaxed Indian attitude to security considerations have enabled Chinese telecom companies, some of them owned by retired PLA officers, which have been facing difficulties in the West, particularly the US, having a free run of the Indian market. Indian IT companies have not benefitted to the extent expected from their presence in China.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. Thus, China has been the beneficiary of the policy followed till now. The time has come to revisit this policy and make it clear to China that unless and until the border dispute is settled to mutual satisfaction,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>the relations in other fields cannot improve.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. The Prime Minister should immediately convene a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss a new strategy with the following components and initiate action for their implementation:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Firstly, all exchanges of visits between the leaders of the two countries, and planned joint military exercises should be postponed till China vacates its occupation of Indian territory.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Secondly, India should go ahead with the strengthening of its infrastructure in its territory in all the sectors.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Thirdly, no new construction contracts should be awarded to Chinese companies till the border issue is settled.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Fourthly, no replacement visas should be issued in respect of on-going construction contracts.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. Our Army should strengthen its presence in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh to pre-empt the Chinese surprising us there as they have done in Eastern Ladakh. ( 3-5-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre Fror China Studies. Twitter @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-10458583739830031932013-05-01T02:21:00.001-07:002013-05-01T02:21:38.458-07:00LEH: THOSE MAGNIFICENT KAO-BOYS ON MULE-BACK<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A CORRECTION<br /><br />In the above-mentioned article, I had referred to A.P.Verma of the 1959 batch of IPS from UP. A reader has pointed out this should be M.S.Verma of the 1958 batch from MP. I stand corrected with apologies. B.Raman</div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-16133031618667072862013-05-01T01:57:00.000-07:002013-05-01T01:57:01.311-07:00CHINESE MANOEUVRES AGAINST INDIA'S POSSIBLE USE OF THE GILGIT-BALTISTAN CARD<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">&nbsp;</span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In an article of December 20,2010, titled “Sino-India border row: China's bid to boost Pak 'presence' in J&amp;K” carried by Rediff.com at <a href="http://www.rediff.com/news/column/chinas-bid-to-boost-pak-presence-in-jk/20101220.htm"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.rediff.com/news/column/chinas-bid-to-boost-pak-presence-in-jk/20101220.htm</span></a>, I had stated as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“China, which had never openly questioned the Indian estimate of the length of the common border before, is now unilaterally seeking to exclude from<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>consideration during the border talks the dispute between India and China over the Chinese occupation of a large territory in the Ladakh sector of J&amp;K. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“In fact, it is seeking to question India's locus standi to discuss with China the border in the J&amp;K area in view of Pakistan's claims to this area. It is trying to bring in Pakistan as an interested party in so far as the border talks regarding the western sector are concerned. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“It wants to change the format of the border talks in order to keep it confined bilaterally to the eastern and middle sectors and expand it to a trilateral issue involving India, China and Pakistan in the western sector. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“The exclusion of the border in the J&amp;K sector from its estimate of the total length of the border is another indication that it does not recognise India's claims of sovereignty over J&amp;K.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“It is apparent that this is part of a well thought-out policy of unilaterally changing the ground rules of the border talks. It had earlier allegedly changed the ground rules in the eastern sector by going back on a prior understanding with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that the border should be demarcated in such a manner as not to affect populated areas. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“It is now going back on its previous stand in the western sector by seeking to challenge India's locus standi in view of its dispute with Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Even at the risk of a further delay in the exercise to solve the border dispute, India should not agree to any change in the ground rules which would restrict the border talks only to the eastern and middle sectors and exclude the western sector on the ground that India has a dispute over this area with Pakistan.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. The Chinese manoeuvres to change the ground rules are reflected in the latest situation created by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ( a platoon of it) in advancing 19 kms inside the hitherto perceived Line of Actual Control (LOAC) in the Dipsang area of Eastern Ladakh on April 15,2013, and staying put there in tents.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3.In the absence of any commonly accepted maps indicating a mutually accepted perception of the LOAC, the understanding as to where the LOAC lies largely depends on the differing individual perceptions of the two countries. While the Indian perceptions remain constant, the Chinese perceptions remain changing depending on its individual interest.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. The Chinese assertion of claims of territorial sovereignty in the Eastern Ladakh area had in the past remained restricted to a few kms from the LOAC. For the first time now, it has unilaterally changed the perception by 19 kms. Whether the Chinese ultimately withdraw from this area or not, by this intrusion, Beijing is seeking to impose a change in the ground situation that had prevailed since 1962 by unilaterally imposing a new perception of the LOAC which will expand Chinese claims to Indian territory in this area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.At the same time, according to media reports that have not been questioned by the Government of India, the PLA is demanding India’s reversal of its reported re-activation of the advanced landing grounds at Daulat Beg Oldie, Fukche and Nyoma and suspension of India’s construction of temporary posts at Chumar and Fukche to provide shelters to patrolling Indian troops.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6.In one stroke, China is seeking to expand considerably the area over which it claims sovereignty and restrict or reduce the area over which India has been claiming sovereignty.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. Why has China suddenly sought to activate sovereignty issues in this area and to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>change unilaterally hitherto accepted perceptions/claims of the LOAC? This area where the PLA has embarked on a policy of activism contrary to China’s proclamations of its interest in finding a peaceful solution to the border dispute and maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas has assumed importance for China in view of its proximity to the Karakoram area in the Gilgit-Baltistan area of Pakistan where the Chinese have stepped their construction activities and inducted Chinese protection troops to protect the construction teams with the acceptance of the Government of Pakistan, which has been in illegal occupation of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB).<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8.If a confrontational situation develops between India and China, India will have two cards at its disposal--- re-activate Tibet, which will be a difficult option or make the Chinese presence in GB prohibitively costly for China just as the US made the Soviet presence in Afghanistan bloody costly for the erstwhile USSR. The second is a doable option.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. India looks upon POK and GB as an integral part of India. The Chinese presence in that area is a violation of India’s sovereignty claims. India has strategic allies amongst the people of GB who could help it in making the Chinese presence costly. GB can provide India with the option of proxy activism in that area to make the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Chinese pay for their repeated intrusions in the Ladakh area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. The Chinese are seeking to pre-empt possible <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Indian activism against Chinese presence and interests in the GB area by occupying new territory in Eastern Ladakh and keeping the Indian Army away from the vicinity of the Karakoram area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. Whatever be the final outcome of the present stand-off, the Chinese manoeuvres to prevent India from possibly using the GB card against them will continue. We should not lose this card and should not legitimise the Chinese presence in the GB area. We have already lost the Tibet card by accepting Tibet in writing as an integral part of China. We should not lose the GB card by succumbing to the new Chinese pressure in the areas in the proximity of the Karakoram area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article on the India-China Border Dispute of April 23,2013, at <a href="http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1248"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1248</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>)<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-29144911839289600652013-04-27T08:30:00.002-07:002013-04-27T08:30:37.949-07:00LEH:THOSE MAGNIFICENT KAO-BOYS ON MULE-BACK--DOWN THE MEMORY LANE<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span>&nbsp;</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In the external intelligence division of the Intelligence Bureau, headed by B.N.Mallick, DIB, and subsequently post-1968 in the Research &amp; Analysis Wing (R&amp;AW), headed by R.N.Kao, Leh was a coveted posting for young officers.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.Both Mallick as the DIB and Kao<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>as the head of the external intelligence division of the IB and then as the head of the R&amp;AW took a lot of interest in the collection of human and technical intelligence from Tibet through young officers posted in Leh.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3.The IB and the R&amp;AW had set up a chain of Forward Intelligence Posts (FIPs) to collect Tibetan intelligence and these were supervised by an officer of the rank of Assistant Director (Superintendent of Police) based in Leh. The logistic and medical cover for the FIPs and the IB/R&amp;AW offices<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>in Leh was provided by the Army.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. We had very close co-operation between the Army and the intelligence set-up. Except in Leh where the staff used to move around by jeep, in the interior areas for the collection of Tibetan intelligence the staff used to travel on mule-back.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.Leh was considered a very difficult posting health-wise. Only officers medically cleared by the Wellington Hospital for travel or posting to Leh were sent there. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6.N.F Suntook, who was the head of Administration in the R&amp;AW under Kao, was once medically cleared for going there on an inspection tour. He almost died there due to accumulation of water in the lungs and had to be airlifted in the nick of time to the Wellington Hospital.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.Young officers wanting to specialise in Chinese intelligence opted for their initial posting in Leh. They were the blue-eyed boys of Mallick, Kao and A.K.Dave. Leh, Hong Kong to learn the Chinese language and Beijing---used to be the career path of the Chinese hands in our intelligence community.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8.Among the officers who distinguished themselves in Leh were K.C.Patnayak, a 1954 IPS officer from Orissa, the late R.Swaminathan, a 1954 IPS officer from Andhra Pradesh, N.Narasimhan, a 1957 IPS officer from Karnataka A.S.Syali, a 1958 IPS officer from Madhya Pradesh, and A.P.Verma, a 1959 IPS officer from Uttar Pradesh.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. Of these, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Narasimhan and Syali subsequently rose to be the chief of the R&amp;AW. Collection of trans-border HUMINT from China entailed a lot of imagination, innovation and risks. Since the borders were not demarcated, one did not know where the Indian territory ended and the Chinese territory began.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10.Indian and Chinese intelligence officers manning FIPs often kept intruding into each other’s territory while moving on mule-back for clandestine meetings with sources and for looking after the welfare of their officers. Life was hell and at the same time an adventure for junior officers manning the FIPs.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. Indian officers had to take risks to get into Chinese-controlled territory to meet their sources without getting caught. If they got caught, there could have been a serious diplomatic incident.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. How to take the correct amount of risks without being irresponsible and over-adventurous? That was the question constantly before the young officers posted in the Leh sector.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13. One of the most risk-taking and adventurous was A.P Verma, a lover of horses and mules who won the Tonk Cup for equitation in the Central Police Training College in Mount Abu. His adventurous forays into Chinese territory<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>on mule-back to meet his sources were legendary.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">14. There was a remarkable empathy between him and his mules. They knew where he wanted to go and how to escape capture by the Chinese counter-intelligence. To make his mules gallop faster to escape capture by the Chinese, he used to put a stick into the ears of his mules and excite them. They would get excited and irritated, but always gallop to the nearest Indian army camp.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">15. It used to be said in the IB that no young officer had forayed so deep into Chinese-controlled territory as Verma and come back alive. Once he went very deep into Chinese-controlled territory for a clandestine meeting with a source. To his surprise, he found that the Chinese had caught his source and were waiting to trap him.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">16. He quickly reversed direction and started galloping towards an Indian Army camp with the Chinese chasing him. It must have been a sight for Gods to see----with Verma and the Chinese <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>galloping in the direction of Indian territory. The Chinese could not catch up with him. He managed to reach safe sanctuary in the Indian Army camp.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">17. He sent a flash wireless message to the IB headquarters explaining what happened. Dave and his other supervisory officers were shocked by what they looked upon as his irresponsible action in intruding so deep into Chinese-controlled territory. They called for his explanation and recommended to Mallick that he should be withdrawn to headquarters and reverted back to UP.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">18. Mallick was shocked by their recommendation. He called them to his office and expressed his utter amazement that instead of giving a pat on the back for this young and adventurous officer, they should seek to reprimand him for taking unwise risk and send him back to the state.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">19.Mallick sent for Verma, congratulated him and recommended him for a gallantry medal. ( 27-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-17170724687828255462013-04-26T22:59:00.003-07:002013-04-26T22:59:43.896-07:00ANOTHER CLASH IN XINJIANG: TWO MORE DEAD<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Two Uighurs working for the Ministry of Public Security in the Hotan area of the Xinjiang province of China are reported to have been killed on April 26,2013, when the local Uighurs in the village of Yengi Awat protested against fellow Uighurs forcibly being used by the Han Police to make a physical search of Uighur women suspected of being separatists.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, which, inter alia reports on the state of the non-Han minorities in China, has quoted Dilxat Raxit, Sweden-based spokesman for the World Uighur Congress, as stating that the Hotan deaths followed clashes between local Muslim Uighurs and local people hired to "maintain stability" and watch over the neighborhood.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. He said in an interview to the radio: "We are still trying to establish the actual cause of the clashes, but one issue is that China has recently stepped up security patrols in the Hotan area. They have sent large numbers of uniformed personnel there along the state highway from Kashgar, and you can see Chinese military vehicles everywhere, frequently." <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. Before this fresh incident, the Xinjiang authorities had organised a conference on April 25 to discuss measures for maintaining stability in the region under the chairmanship of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Zhang Chunxian, the Party chief of Xinjiang. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.In a message read out at the conference, President Xi Jinping called for the early restoration of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>stability in the region. Party and State Government speakers<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>at the conference said that terrorists are enemies of the people of all ethnic groups across the country and should be fought with no mercy. They added that it is also important to learn the right lessons from the latest clash and to boost the powers of community-level officials to maintain stability.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. The “Global Times” of the Communist Party of China (CPC) reported in its web site that Xi gave instructions on "how to handle the case, deal with the aftermath, and maintain stability in Xinjiang". <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.In a commentary carried on April 26, the “China Daily” said: “ Whoever they are, wherever they are, and with whatever it takes, there has to be decisive moves to wipe out terrorist cells in the country. The violent attacks are another bloody reminder that terrorist threats remain a clear and present danger in the country's north-western region. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Since the 2009 riot in the region's capital, Urumqi, which left 197 dead, the local government has been working hard to deal with the threats from separatist, terrorist and extremist forces. While the overall situation in Xinjiang remains stable, Tuesday's violence tells us the battle against the "three evil forces" is still severe and challenging. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Previous violent incidents in Kashgar have all been traced to three evil forces, and overseas separatists, extremists and terrorists have also been found taking advantage of modern communication technologies, such as the Internet, to instigate unrest in Xinjiang. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>There has been evidence of infiltration of terrorist organizations from neighbouring countries, some of which have even been found to have links with al-Qaeda.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. The Chinese authorities have accused the US of double standards in dealing with terrorism for calling for an impartial enquiry into the violent incidents in Xinjiang. ( 27-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-44598289889059665842013-04-24T23:08:00.000-07:002013-04-24T23:08:38.756-07:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">WOMEN SPOOKS OF THE WORLD<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( By courtesy of one of my readers who has sent these excerpts. This may please be read in continuation of my article titled “The Jinx Against Women Spies in R&amp;AW” at <a href="http://www.rediff.com/news/report/the-jinx-against-women-spies-in-r-aw/20120822.htm">http://www.rediff.com/news/report/the-jinx-against-women-spies-in-r-aw/20120822.htm</a>&nbsp; --B.Raman<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Excerpts of Remarks Delivered by Central Intelligence Agency Director John O. Brennan and Dr. Madeleine Albright at the CIA Women’s History Month Celebration<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>(March 19, 2013)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">March 22, 2013<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>D/CIA Brennan: Good morning CIA! I can’t tell you how wonderful it feels to say that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>[Laughter] Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">It is wonderful being back here at CIA, and to participate in this event. I also would like to welcome back to the Agency my wife Kathy. She is here with us today and is looking forward to once again participating in Agency activities, as she and I did for 25 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I’m especially happy to be part of a celebration that honors women in the federal service. During my three decades in government—including 25 years here at CIA—I’ve seen firsthand the knowledge, leadership, courage, and dedication that women bring to the table in meeting the most difficult missions, including the intelligence mission.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Years from now, when enough time has passed so that authoritative histories of the post-9/11 counterterrorism campaign can be written, they will tell the story of how quite a few extraordinary women, here at CIA and elsewhere in the government, made truly decisive contributions to the war effort against al-Qa‘ida and its affiliates.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And just this year, we said farewell to a CIA legend, Jeanne Vertefeuille. An acknowledged expert on counterintelligence and an East Bloc specialist, Jeanne led the unit that identified Aldrich Ames as a mole.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">She joined CIA in 1954 as a GS-4 typist and blazed a trail for women in the Directorate of Operations—the forerunner of the National Clandestine Service—at a time when it was overwhelmingly a male enterprise. She worked her way up to leadership positions and retired as a member of the Senior Intelligence Service in 1992.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>In 1976 … our History Staff says that of the Agency’s 98 key officials at that time, only one was a woman. Some might regard that as ancient history, but it was only four years before I joined CIA. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The situation is considerably different now, of course—you’re laughing because I joined CIA that long ago? Yes, I am part of ancient history! [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">This situation is considerably different now, of course, thanks in part to leaders … [who] paved the way for the likes of Sue Bromley, Fran Moore, Sue Gordon, Jeanne Tisinger, … and so many other women who are part of the Agency’s leadership team today.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>But, as an organization, we can and must do better, leveraging the talents of women in our workforce.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Nearly a year ago, David Petraeus asked our keynote speaker, the Honorable Madeleine K. Albright, to head up the Director’s Advisory Group on Women in Leadership, also known as the DAG. Her mandate was to examine why more women GS-13 and above were not achieving promotions and positions of greater responsibility at the Agency.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>The DAG published its findings last month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>… I was not here for the launch or completion of the study, but I have spoken to Secretary Albright about the report several times and I fully support and endorse the DAG’s findings and recommendations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And I would like to thank Secretary Albright and all the members of her team [names removed] for all their hard work and dedication to this project. And now I’d like to ask all of the DAG members to stand up so that we can give them a richly deserved round of applause. [Applause]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>What Secretary Albright and the other senior advisors, such as Michèle Flournoy, Justin Jackson, John McLaughlin, Mike Mullen, Fran Townsend, and the DAG members came up with isn’t a generic re-telling of where the Agency is, or just another study to put on the shelf. It goes beyond numbers and statistics to address some very important aspects of our Agency’s culture.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>The DAG drew on the opinions of a great many officers … through a survey, focus groups, interviews, meetings with Senior Advisors, and the DAG’s blog. They put a tremendous amount of work into this effort, and the final report reflects it.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And perhaps the most important point I want to make here is that the recommendations will benefit not just women of our workforce, but the entire workforce. These recommendations are about developing and managing all of our people in a way that optimizes talent.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And I want all our Agency’s leaders to embrace the standards outlined in the DAG’s report—like providing actionable and timely feedback; being candid with officers about the impact of the choices they make on their career; and seeking creative, flexible workplace strategies that allow us to meet our mission.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Two of the DAG’s ten recommendations—establishing clear promotion criteria from GS-15 to SIS and expanding the pool of nominees for promotion to SIS—are already in effect. But I must tell you that full implementation of all ten recommendations will take years to accomplish.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Some of these—like promoting sponsorship—are long-term initiatives intended to change certain aspects of our culture. They’ll require sustained attention—and sustained attention we will give them.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Accordingly, I have directed that the report’s ten recommendations and as much of the report as possible be issued in unclassified form. While most aspects of our intelligence mission need to remain classified, we should be open, honest, and proud of our efforts to ensure that all employees have the opportunity to reach their full professional potential.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>[A senior officer] has been named to lead the implementation of the DAG’s recommendations, and she has my full and sustained support. I look forward to working with her in applying these initiatives across the Agency. If we can get the implementation right, we'll meet our mission even better.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And, of course, on behalf of all of us at CIA, I want to express my deep gratitude to Secretary Albright for her tremendous leadership and for providing such a great service to our Agency. Her experience and knowledge were invaluable to this project, and we could never have achieved as much as we did without her.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Secretary Albright was, of course, America’s first woman to serve as Secretary of State, and, at the time, the highest ranking woman in the history of the United States Government. She remains a widely admired and highly respected authority on international affairs, national security policy, and diplomacy, as well as a committed advocate for democracy and human rights worldwide.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>… So please, everyone, join me in giving a warm Agency welcome to one of the Nation’s greatest public servants and a true friend of CIA: The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright. [Applause]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Dr. Albright: Thank you. Thank you very, very much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I am delighted to be here and to welcome the new Director—really a very, very kind introduction.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And I take to heart very much what you have said in terms of the report and your support for it, because leadership comes from the top and you are providing it in so many ways. So thank you—thank you so much.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">I am certain that the President made the right choice for our country in nominating you; whether you made the right choice for your mental health in accepting it [Laughter] only time will tell! But you did survive the Senate, which shows your grit and your capability of succeeding. So I wish you the very, very best.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And this morning, I am delighted to join with you here in observing Women’s History Month.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">I say that not because I recognize any distinction between world history and women’s history or, for that matter, men’s. In my view, these are really not separate categories but should be considered part of a complete whole. I feel this very strongly and may even write about it in my next book, so stay tuned.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Meanwhile, I want to thank each of you for what you and the Agency accomplish on behalf of our country. I know that, in the popular media, the CIA is often portrayed as either evil or angelic, with a large dose of drama and glamour part of every day. But what is almost never emphasized is how much time and labor goes into the routine but vital job of collecting and analyzing information.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>In my earlier life, as UN Ambassador and then Secretary of State, I was known as a consumer of intelligence—and I always had a voracious appetite. Each morning, I read your briefings and special reports, and consulted with CIA experts on everything from the Middle East and Central Asia to what sounds like the world’s worst law firm: Mobutu, Mugabe, Milosevic, Kim Jong-il—and sons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>[Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I always wondered why the briefers stayed and watched me read—to see if I was moving my lips.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>[Laughter] But I know—was there in order to answer my questions. Along the way, I did ask many questions and I received many helpful—although carefully hedged—answers.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I left office believing that the CIA is imperfect—as any human organization is—but that, collectively, you still know more about everything than most of us know about anything, and that you make enormous contributions each day to the safety and security of our people.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>In the years since, nothing has happened to change my opinion. So I was intrigued when, last spring, former Director Petraeus invited me to participate in the Director’s Advisory Group on Women in Leadership. And I want to thank everybody that worked so hard on the DAG …. Really, you worked so hard, and we have now become good friends, and thank you for all your work.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>We were joined by several outstanding outside advisers, and—some of whom are here today—and finally, I would also want to thank the … senior Agency leadership, and have been—who have been so supportive in all the work. I think it really was remarkable.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Our mandate was to examine and recommend changes in the Agency’s personnel practices as they relate to the careers of women. And, to that end, we consulted widely, and I really am so grateful to many of you that participated. The final report does include these recommendations, and I think that they need—there is need for significant reforms in how people are managed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Employees deserve to be judged fairly, rewarded equitably, and informed how and on what basis decisions affecting their careers are made. Overall, there is a requirement for better accountability, more transparency, and a greater willingness to adapt to new circumstances.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I hope that the report will be received in the same spirit with which it is offered, and that its implementation will benefit both the Agency and its vital mission. And so, I really am so encouraged by your remarks, Mr. Director, and—I guess you’ve ordered everybody to call you John? [Laughter] So, [thank you] for everything that you have done and will do.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>So this morning I was also invited here to share with you a bit of my personal history and to offer my insights, any of which might be of interest to you. Time is limited, so I’ll begin with the Twitter version of my biography. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Like many Americans, I did not begin my life in this country. Instead, I was born in Czechoslovakia only a few months before Hitler’s troops marched into the capital city of Prague.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">My father was a diplomat at the time and unwilling to cooperate with the Nazis. And so my parents and I fled to England, which is where we spent World War Two.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">I was just eight years old when that conflict ended and we returned to Prague. And because the fighting was over, my parents and I expected to be able to settle in. But within a couple of years, the government of Czechoslovakia was taken over by the Communists. And once again, my family was forced into exile, this time sailing across the Atlantic to a new and welcoming home.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>We soon moved to Colorado, where my father helped to establish a school of international affairs at the University of Denver. And my own highest ambition was to fit in with my classmates and become a bona fide American teenager.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>My parents weren’t a lot of help in the “blending in” department. [Laughter] Mainly because my mother was this delightful nut who actually read palms at dinner parties [Laughter] and would say to men while sitting next to their wives that they were going to meet mysterious women. [Laughter] She also predicted that I would have three sons and I have three daughters. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Meanwhile, my father also wanted to fit in but he was very, very serious. In Colorado, fitting in meant you went fishing. It’s just that he wore a coat and tie when he fished. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In high school, when I went out on a date, he’d follow along behind in the family car, later inviting the poor boy in for milk and cookies. So I didn’t have a lot of second dates until I went away to college. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>When I did go away it was to Wellesley, a women’s college in Massachusetts. And I had a wonderful time and I received a fine education. But young women of that era were being groomed more for marriage than for anything else.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>We were part of what we called the Silent Generation, but there were also a time and process of transition, and my own feelings were certainly mixed. I hoped to pursue a career that reflected my interest in journalism and world affairs. But I was also in love and planned to get married right after graduation. I waited actually three days. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Unfortunately, my new husband happened to work for a newspaper in Chicago where I also wanted to work. And I had done the right thing by working on a small paper in Missouri while he was in the Army.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And then we went to have dinner with his managing editor in Chicago, and he said, “So what are you going to do, Honey?”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And I said I’m going to work on a newspaper. And he said, “I don’t think so. You can’t work on the same paper as your husband because of guild regulations.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And even though there were three other newspapers in Chicago at the time, he said, “Well, you wouldn’t want to compete with your husband.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">So, instead of saying what I might say now—or you might say [Laughter]—I basically saluted and went home. But I really didn’t—was not able to forget about it. But what’s interesting is I recently came across a letter that I had written when I was 24 and out of college for two years, sitting at home with my twin daughters.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I concluded that I had been naïve to think that I could compete in the job market with men. And any competent interviewer would want to know what I would do if an emergency arose with the babies, or if my husband switched jobs and I had to leave town. I described myself as “a housewife who is dissatisfied with housekeeping and who doesn’t know how to get out of the rut.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Over the next decade or two, as my husband and I raised our family, we did move whenever he changed jobs. And I kept busy doing volunteer work, arranging car pools, navigating a double-wide stroller through the streets of Georgetown.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>There were many satisfactions in being a mother, but I eventually decided to return to school and started my PhD work. And I used to get up every morning at 4:30 to write my dissertation. I finally finished—I started when my children were two, I finished when they were in junior high—when my daughter said, “Mom, if you can’t finish your paper, we’re never going to finish ours.” [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>When I was—when my children were older, I took a job in Washington with then United States Senator Ed Muskie, and then I later served in the Carter Administration on the National Security Council. And in all that time, I never imagined that I would one day become Secretary of State. And it wasn’t that I lacked ambition. It’s just that I had never seen a Secretary of State in a skirt.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I’ll never forget what it was like the first day after I was sworn into my job and walked down that mahogany hallway at the State Department where all the portraits of my predecessors were hung. And the only difference among them was those who were clean-shaven and those who had beards.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And I imagined that my—that when my portrait went up, that the walls would shake a bit. Actually they did. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Obviously, this was a pivotal moment that altered perceptions and changed history. And in fact, given what has happened more recently with secretaries Rice and Clinton, we can now say that John Kerry is a source of inspiration for little boys everywhere. [Laughter, applause]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And by the way, my youngest granddaughter—when she turned seven, which is about three years ago—she said, “So what’s the big deal about Grandma Maddy being Secretary of State? Only girls are Secretary of State.” [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>But looking back on my career, you might detect a lot of juggling, which all people who work—and especially women—have to do.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And as my career progressed, I had my share of setbacks and inner doubts, but I was also stubborn. When criticized by the media, I explained that the reason that I looked fatter was that I had grown a thicker skin. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I was also determined to succeed and felt after a while that I had truly found my voice and that some people, at least, were listening to it. And that’s why I remain truly grateful to President Clinton, not only for nominating me to two cabinet-level positions, but for backing me on many of the key decisions during our years in office. I was proud to be in his administration and absolutely loved my job.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>To me, a career in public service, especially as a representative of the American people, is all anyone can ever ask for. And in that spirit, I offer my respects to all of you, for what—that you would not be here if you had not earned the trust of our government.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>The challenge, always, is to make the most of the opportunity. And that requires both that you do your job to the best of your ability, and that you stand up for your rights.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And this in turn demands leadership, which has been the subject of countless self-help books—none of which I have read. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Unlike some public speakers—Donald Rumsfeld for one—I never developed a catchy list of leadership rules. I don’t have any favorite motivational slogans or quotations from Napoleon. And I find a lot of standard advice to be self-evident, useless, or worse.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>For example, I have found that telling a person who is chronically indecisive to be confident does little good, and that advising a person to trust her instincts can actually cause harm when addressed to someone who has extremely strong opinions that are usually wrong. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I do, however, have a few suggestions, which you can take for what they’re worth.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Years ago, I noticed that, in the classes I teach at Georgetown, female students were generally more polite than boys. And then I also remembered myself sitting in meetings and thinking that I might want to say something, and then thinking, no, I won’t say it because people will think it’s stupid.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And then, two people later, some man says it and everybody thinks it’s brilliant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>And you sit there and you’re so mad at yourself for not having spoken up. And everybody thinks that whatever Bill said had been so smart.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Now in my classes, the girls tended to sit quietly and raise their hands. And this often meant that the boys were able to dominate the discussion. Ever since then, I have told my female students not to be afraid to interrupt. They don’t raise their hands—my classes are a bit of a zoo. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>But the bottom line is that they learn to speak up. In our era, it’s better to risk being thought rude than to give the impression that you have nothing to say.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">A second lesson I learned when serving as America’s ambassador to the United Nations. And that—I have to say here I had given all this advice about not sitting in a meeting and not speaking and telling my students to raise their hands, but I walk into my first meeting at the Security Council—not in that big fancy room, but in that—the room where we have our informal discussions—and I sit there, and there are 14 men looking—sitting there and looking at me—and I’m thinking, well, I think I’ll just wait, and see if they like me [Laughter] and what the mood of the room is.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>And then I looked at the sign in front of me, and it said, “United States.” And I thought if I didn’t speak on that day, then, in fact, the voice of the United States would not be heard. And—I really—it was kind of an out-of-body experience.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>I couldn’t sit around and play it safe. I had to plunge ahead. After a while I got used to it and, before long, nobody could shut me up! [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">My point is that, in any group, someone has to lead and it might as well be you—when if you—and you have to be prepared to do so.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">A third lesson I learned is not to be obsessed by the clock. I was 39 years old before I had my first professional job. I was 55 when I became UN ambassador and four years older than that when I became Secretary of State.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>My friend, Senator Barbara Mikulski, says she worked for a quarter of a century to become an overnight success. [Laughter]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">There is no question that we live in a youth-oriented culture. But when it comes to generating results, experience and character count far more than a wrinkle-free face.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">My fourth point is not to let anyone else tell you what you can do and where you belong. You may have ambitions that go beyond what others expect. These desires may surprise your friends and inconvenience some who are close to you. But you have to make the choice.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>You have to decide whether to allow others to define the boundaries of your life—or to chart your own course even if you’re not entirely sure where you’re going. No one can make that choice for you—and no path is inherently right or wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>My only advice is to act out of hope, not fear, and to take responsibility for whatever you decide.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Finally, I have one message that I always insist on sharing with professional women, and that is to look around the room at the faces of your colleagues and remember that there is a special place in Hell reserved for women who refuse to help one another. [Laughter, applause]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>None of us—none of us get to where we are on our own. And none of us will get to where we want to go unless we move forward together.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">And if you remember nothing else from what I’ve said this morning—remember that.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">So thank you very, very much, and thank you all for giving me the opportunity to be a part of your family. I hope I get to stay. Thank you very much. [Applause, standing ovation]<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-48261566743036439272013-04-24T22:02:00.000-07:002013-04-24T22:02:08.949-07:00XINJIANG & TIBET:CONTINUING WEAKNESSES IN CHINA'S PERIPHERAL SECURITY<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Ten Uighurs, three Hans and two Mongols working for the Ministry of Public Security in Xinjiang and six Uighur separatists were killed on the morning of April 23,2013, in an incident in the Selibya Township in the Bachu county, in the Kashgar area of China’s Xinjiang province. The area of the incident is near Xinjiang’s borders with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. The Information Office of the Xinjiang Government has projected the incident as a “severe, violent, terror incident” which has been brought under control. It has projected 15 of those killed as police officers and social workers helping the police in maintaining security.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. In its announcement, the Information Office has given the following details of the incident: The <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>incident happened after three community workers<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>found several suspicious people and knives in a local house. They reported the details to their supervisor but were then restrained by suspected terrorists. When police and community workers arrived, they were ambushed by attackers inside and outside the house. The attackers, who had killed the three community workers who had been held captive, then set fire to the house. By the time police brought the situation under control, 15 people had been killed by the gang. Six gang members were shot dead at the scene, bringing the death toll to 21. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.The “China Daily” has quoted Mutalif Wubuli, commissioner of Kashgar prefecture, as saying that eight suspects have been arrested. It has also quoted Qi Baowen, commander of the Xinjiang Armed Police, as saying that the consequences of the incident are relatively severe because there are many casualties.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. Last month, courts in Kashgar had sentenced 19 people for their alleged <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>involvement in organized terror activities and for spreading extreme religious information via the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Internet and cellphones. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6.In March, the local Ministry of Public Security had started what was described as “Social management in communities” under which Uighurs were recruited as community workers to help the police in the maintenance of security. “It is the foundation of maintaining stability in the region,” Xiong Xuanguo, Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of Xinjiang, had said in a media briefing.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. The incident of April 23,2013, appears to have been in retaliation for the jailing of 19 Uighurs last month and to deter the local Uighurs from co-operating with the police in dealing with separatism.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. In a commentary on the incident carried on April 25,2013, the “Global Times” of the Communist Party of China said: “The latest clashes show that Xinjiang has a long way to go in its anti-terrorism efforts. But it's worth pointing out that this case will not pose a threat to the overall stability of Xinjiang. The public expects social harmony and prosperity…..Although Xinjiang has experienced several violent clashes in recent years, social confidence in Xinjiang and the confidence of the whole country toward the region have remained stable. The situation in Xinjiang since the July 5 riots in 2009 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>has improved and no violent cases have impeded that process. As the sources of violence in Xinjiang haven't been eradicated, its occasional occurrence cannot be fully prevented. Xinjiang has learned to manage the situation despite some isolated violent cases. It has been investigating and eradicating the internal and external sources of violent terrorist attacks. We should firmly act against violent terrorists. Terrorists should not be permitted to have the misconception that they are carrying out a "holy war" or simply fighting against the regime. They must be clear that they are making enemies of all the Xinjiang people and the Chinese people.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9.The Xinjiang authorities have not so far blamed the Pakistan-based Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan for the fresh violence. They are apparently worried that as the US-led Western troops thin out from Afghanistan, violence by different separatist groups could increase in Xinjiang adding to internal instability. Hence, their interest in co-operating with India in monitoring the ground situation in Afghanistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10.The Chinese face a two-pronged threat to their peripheral security--- from the growing anger of the Tibetans in the Tibetan areas and from the Uighurs in Xinjiang. Their hopes that rapid economic development of these areas will dilute the threat have been belied so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. In view of China’s insensitivity to India’s core interests and major concerns in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, it will not be in India’s interest to co-operate with China in relation to its peripheral security problems. ( 25-4-2013)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter : @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-72711047718571337852013-04-22T22:59:00.002-07:002013-04-22T22:59:46.767-07:00INDIA-CHINA BORDER DISPUTE<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( To be read in continuation of my article of November 6,2012, titled “Chinese Checkers” carried by “Outlook” in its online edition at <a href="http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?282899"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?282899</span></a>)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The continuing (since April 15,2013) Chinese troop intrusion ( about 20 troops) 10 kms into Indian territory near Burthe in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) area of Eastern Ladakh in the western sector of the Sino-Indian border should be a matter for careful analysis and concern, but not alarm.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.A spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Office has denied any Chinese intrusion into Indian territory in this area. The Government of India, for the present, has been treating it as one of those intrusions which take place sometimes due to differing perceptions of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in this area and trying to deal with it through the normal mechanism for handling such issues without disturbing peace and tranquillity across the border.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. There is no evidence to show that this could be a prelude to a major Chinese assertion of territorial sovereignty in this area. The Chinese aim seems to be to re-assert their claim of sovereignty over this area without disturbing peace and tranquillity. The Chinese troops are presently camping in the area in a tent. We will have reasons to be more than concerned only if they stay put there and construct permanent defences as they often do in the uninhabited islands of the South China Sea.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. Since last year, the Chinese have been a little more assertive of their sovereignty claims over the islands of the South and East China Seas. They have reportedly constructed permanent defensive and administrative structures on some of the islands over which they have disputes with Vietnam and the Philippines.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. In the East China Sea, where they have sovereignty disputes with Japan, they have avoided any such construction, but stepped up seemingly aggressive air and naval patrols of the areas in the vicinity of these islands. The Chinese Navy has also stepped up its visits to the islands in the South China Sea claimed by Beijing.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6.Till now we have seen greater Chinese activism in the enforcement of their sovereignty claims only in the South and East China seas, but not across the Sino-Indian border. If the Chinese troops stay put in the Burthe area and construct defensive structures in the area, that will be an indicator of their deciding to follow a similar policy of activism across the Sino-Indian border too. That should add to our border concerns. We may have to revisit our peace and tranquillity strategy and think of a more activist policy to face the Chinese activism.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. In the Western sector of the border, which is largely unpopulated, the status quo favours the Chinese. Since 1962, they are already in occupation of whatever territory they have claimed. We have very few options to re-assert our sovereignty in any area of this sector which is under Chinese control.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. In the Eastern sector ( Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese call Southern Tibet), the area is populated and the status quo favours India. Even though our defensive and administrative infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area is not comparable with the Chinese infrastructure in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), we are in a much stronger position in the Eastern sector than in the Western.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9.While the Chinese continue to repeat from time to time their claims to the Arunachal Pradesh area, they have avoided in the Eastern sector the kind of ground activism that one comes across in the Western sector. There is a noticeable keenness on the part of both China and India to avoid any provocative incident either in the Eastern or Western sector.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10.The Chinese are unlikely to relent in their claims to Indian territory in the Eastern sector till after they have succeeded in imposing on the Tibetans a Dalai Lama chosen by the Communist Party of China (CPC) with the help of the Panchen Lama chosen by the CPC.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11.The wave of self-immolations (115 incidents so far) in the Tibetan areas of China since March 2009 has created concerns in Chinese mind of possible political instability in the Tibetan areas after His Holiness the Dalai Lama when the CPC imposes its nominee on the Tibetans.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. The older generation of Tibetans continues to abide by His Holiness’ exhortations for peaceful means of protest. The Chinese are worried that the GenNext of Tibetans represented by organisations such as the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) may take to violent means to resist the imposition of a Dalai Lama chosen by the CPC.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13. In their calculation,this may necessitate action by the PLA in the populated areas of Arunachal Pradesh. Till Tibet is pacified without fears of any further trouble and the Chinese have forced the Tibetans to accept their nominee as the Dalai Lama, Beijing would like to maintain its claim to Arunachal Pradesh to justify action by the PLA in that area to contain trouble, if need be.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">14. If they now make a deal with India recognising Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India, they will not be able to act in that area. By recognising Tibet as an integral part of China we have given up our options for action in Tibet. The Chinese would not want to commit the same mistake by recognising Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">15. They will, therefore, keep the Arunachal Pradesh issue alive till they have forced the Tibetans to accept their decision regarding succession of His Holiness. We should factor this into our border strategies relating to China. (23-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. @SORBONNE75<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>)<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-74989006316057985972013-04-19T18:51:00.002-07:002013-04-19T18:51:18.799-07:00BOSTON MARATHON BOMBING:QUESTIONS SANS ANSWERS<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span>&nbsp;</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Two Chechen brothers living in the US since 2002—Dzhokhar ( 19) and Tamerlan Tsarnaev ( 26),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>are suspected of bombing the Boston Marathon on April 15,2013, in which three persons were killed and over 150 injured.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.The team led by the FBI, which has been investigating the blast, has been able to identify them reportedly through CCTV images of their placing bags, which probably contained the improvised explosive devices (IED), fabricated with a pressure cooker and a metal container, at two places near the finishing line where the explosions occurred.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. Even though the FBI-led team haS not said so, tip-off from persons knowing the brothers also possibly contributed to the needle of suspicion pointing at the two brothers.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.Tamerlan died following a shootout with the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>police on Thursday ( April 18) night. His<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>younger brother, Dzhokhar, is still on the run in Boston. However, latest reports indicate that the police are “in engagement” with a person suspected to be Dzhokhar in the Watertown area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. From the accounts of the police search for him received so far, Dzhokhar has been making<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>frantic efforts to evade capture by the police, who must be anxious to catch him alive to question him on what and who motivated him and Tamerlan to commit the bombing, if it is proved that they did it.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.According to the profile of the Tsarnaev family carried by the BBC and the CNN, they were Chechens who had migrated to Kyrgyzstan and from there to Dagestan. They migrated to the US from Dagestan with Kyrgyz passports in 2002. The father,</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Anzor Tsarnaev, is since reported to have gone back to Dagestan. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. According to the BBC, the brothers lived in the Massachusetts town of Cambridge, home of the prestigious Harvard University. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Tamerlan<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>studied engineering at Bunker Hill Community College just outside Boston but had taken the year off to train as a boxer.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Dzhokhar <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>is enrolled at the University of Massachusetts – Dartmouth to study medicine.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Russian news agency RIA Novosti has reported that "extremist material" was on the YouTube account belonging to Tamerlan. "Several albums were posted, one of them titled 'terrorist'," the agency said. However, the BBC says it has been <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>unable to confirm the presence of extremist material on Tamerlan's YouTube page.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. Their mother, Zubeidat Tsarnaeva, told Russia's RT television network on April 19:</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">"My youngest was raised from 8 years in America, my oldest he was really properly raised in our house," she said. "Nobody talked about terrorism. Tamerlan got involved in religion five years ago. (He) started following his own religion, never told me he could be on side of jihad."<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. According to some reports, the FBI had interviewed the father sometime ago to enquire why the two sons had started attending a local mosque for prayers. This would show that the two brothers were under watch by the FBI for some time before they carried out the bombing.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10.Details of their life in Boston available so far do not indicate any travels by them either within the US or outside. If they had developed any radical influences, it must have been through the Internet or during their visits to the local mosque for namaz. Particulars of the mosque to which they started going for namaz are not available. Who was the cleric in charge of it? Did he have any radical background? Why was the FBI worried about their going for namaz?<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. Dzhokhar was very proud of his Chechen ethnicity. It has been reported that whenever his friends referred to him as a Russian, he would correct them and say he is a Chechen.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12.If it is established that the two brothers carried out the Marathon bombing, what could have been their motive? They had no reasons to be angry against the US and its civil society. Their anger should have been against Russia.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13.Were they self-motivated to carry out the bombing or was their an external motivation due to US policies towards the Islamic world? It is not anger over the state of affairs in Chechnya and Dagestan, but anger over matters relating to Islam that seem to have motivated them.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">14. Was there an Al Qaeda inspiration behind their action? Chechens had always formed an important component of Al Qaeda. Chechen instructors were employed in Al Qaeda’s training camps in the Waziristan area of Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">15. Under Ayman al-Zawahiri, the present chief of Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda has turned the focus of its operations from the Af-Pak region to Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Mali, Somalia, Libya and Algeria. Did Al Qaeda propaganda against the US policies in Libya and Syria influence the brothers in their actions?<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">16. There are many questions without answers. To find the answers, it is important for the US authorities to catch Dzhokhar alive. (20-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-39789684521067463212013-04-18T18:54:00.000-07:002013-04-18T18:54:01.043-07:00THE BENGALURU BLAST<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( Written at the request of “The Times of India”. Carried by it on April 19,2013, at <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Dont-politicise-terror/articleshow/19619767.cms …<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">---------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Sixteen persons, 11 of them policemen posted on pre-election law and order duty near the office of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bengaluru, are reported to have been injured on April 17,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>when a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>motor-byke<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>fitted with an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded near the BJP office. Some vehicles parked in the area were also destroyed or damaged. Some damage to window-panes of nearby buildings has also been reported.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. The blast is in the preliminary stages of investigation<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>by the local police. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) of the Government of India has also joined the investigation. The State and central authorities have categorised the blast as an act of terrorism.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3.No organisation has<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>claimed responsibility for the blast. The motive is still to be established. The only lead the Police have so far<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>is that the motor-byke had a fake number plate of Tamil Nadu and was probably stolen from Hyderabad.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4.From the details available so far it can be tentatively categorised as an act of terror of low lethality carried out with a timed IED mounted on a motor-byke. The use of a motor-byke would indicate that the intention of the perpetrators was not just to create a scare, but to cause casualties.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.While the BJP was the target of the blast, it is not clear whether it was directed against the BJP as a political party and its ideology or against the BJP-led Government which had been ruling the State and its policies or the local police.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. It would be premature to say whether the blast was carried out by an angry individual or individuals with grievances against the BJP or by an ideologically motivated organisation such as the Indian Mujahideen (IM), which had operated in Bengaluru in the past.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. The explosion coincided with the third anniversary of the blast outside the local Chinnaswami Stadium in 2010 in which the IM was suspected. Fasih Mehmood, an engineer from Bihar formerly<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>working in Saudi Arabia and arrested by the Delhi Police in May last year, was to have been interrogated by the Bengaluru Police in connection with his suspected role in the Stadium blast.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. The blast of April 17 has also come about seven months after the high-profile<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>arrests by the Karnataka Police in September last year of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>18 educated Muslim youths<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>in Bengaluru, Hubli, Hyderabad and Maharashtra on charges of conspiring to assassinate a number of Hindu personalities believed sympathetic to the Hindutva movement. According to the Bengaluru Police, who were interrogating them, the Muslim suspects in their custody were self-motivated by visiting the web site of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)in Yemen, also known as the Ansar al-Sharia. The Ansar-al-Sharia was suspected in the assassination of a US diplomat in Benghazi in Libya on September 11,2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. There were no subsequent details of these Muslims allegedly in the custody of the Bengaluru Police. What did they say during their interrogation? Was there corroboration of the allegation that they were self-motivated by visiting the Web site of AQAP? What happened to the case against them? <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10.There were already pockets of anger in sections of the Karnataka Muslim youth against the police and the Government due to various reasons. This anger was reflected in the low-intensity explosions allegedly carried out by the IM in Bengaluru in July 2008.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. One should not be surprised if there was aggravation of this anger as a result of the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>interrogation of Fashi Mehmood and the 18 Muslim youth arrested in September last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12.The anger against the Police and the perceived unfairness of the Indian criminal justice system towards the Muslims have often been cited by the IM as a cause for their movement against the Government and the police in different States. The recent execution of Afzal Guru, for his role in the attack on the Parliament in December 2001,has added to this.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13.One has been seeing reports of such anger in Bengaluru too since the IM struck in 2008. Bengaluru, being an IT nerve centre, has also been an important target of ISI-sponsored Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET).<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">14. While the IM reportedly has contacts with the LET, local anger has till now been the motivating factor of its activities and not the objectives of its Pakistani associates.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">15. One has to keep in view these details in order to understand the background to the terrorist scenario in Bengaluru. This narrative should not be interpreted to mean that these elements must have been responsible for the blast of April 17.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">16. One has to keep an open mind as to who might have been responsible and what could have been the motive and avoid pre-conceived assumptions. At the same time , one has to keep in view the background.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">17. The political parties should leave it to the police and the counter-terrorism experts to do the investigation with an open mind. Till they come to definitive conclusions based on reliable evidence, the temptation to exploit the blast for political purposes should be avoided. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-60208583844673202652013-04-17T02:28:00.002-07:002013-04-17T02:28:43.056-07:00PRESSURE COOKER BOMB NEAR BOSTON MARATHON FINISHING LINE---I AM CONFUSED<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">&nbsp;</span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">I am confused by reports of the perpetrator or perpetrators of the Boston blasts on April 15,2013, having used a pressure cooker bomb.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.A pressure cooker bomb is a conventional type of improvised explosive device (IED) of the 1990s vintage. It can be used to cause high casualties through low intensity explosives by packing it with shrapnel. The exploding part of the cooker will add to the shrapnel effect.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The pressure cooker bomb is ideal for use in a means of transport like a bus or a train or in a public place. They easily merge with the background. In India, many people visiting towns and cities buy pressure cookers and carry them with them. Nobody suspects anything on seeing a person carrying a pressure cooker on board a train or a bus or in a public place. A terrorist finds it easy to pack it with explosives and shrapnel and leave it in a train or a bus or in a public place, where physical security is not intense.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. A pressure cooker bomb does not lend itself to easy use without risk of detection on occasions like the Boston Marathon, when physical security will be tight. Evasion of physical security will be difficult. A pressure cooker near the finishing line of the Marathon would have stuck out like a sore thumb.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. Why did the perpetrator or perpetrators use a pressure cooker? It is difficult to think of an explanation unless the perpetrator or perpetrators are employed in a stall near the finishing line which makes and sells snacks etc during the Marathon. Carrying a pressure cooker to the stall on the day of the Marathon may not create suspicion in the minds of the police.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. One could pack a pressure cooker already in use in the stall with explosive material and shrapnel and leave it nearby during the final moments of the race when in the prevailing joy and excitement among the participants attention may not be paid to a pressure cooker kept aside.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Twiiter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-59570468167277438912013-04-16T00:44:00.003-07:002013-04-16T00:44:51.407-07:00BOSTON MARATHON EXPLOSIONS<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">THE FACTS: As reported by the BBC and the CNN:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">•<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Three persons, including an 8-year-old child, were killed in two explosions near the finish line of the Boston Marathon on the afternoon of April 15,2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">•<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Hospitals reported at least 144 people are being treated for injuries, with at least 17 of them in critical condition and 25 in serious condition. At least eight of them <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>are children. At least 10 people injured had limbs amputated. Several of the patients treated at Massachusetts General Hospital suffered injuries to lower limbs. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">•<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>The two blasts were about 50 to 100 yards apart with a few minutes one after the other. A federal law enforcement official told CNN that both bombs were small, and initial tests showed no C-4 or other high-grade explosive material, suggesting that the packages used in the attack were crude explosive devices.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">•<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Authorities in Boston found at least one other explosive device , Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis said. Rep. Bill Keating of Massachusetts said two more were found. One unexploded device was found at a hotel on Boylston Street near the bomb site and another unexploded device was found at an undisclosed location.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">There were no credible threats before the Marathon, a state government official said. There is no suspect in custody, but many people are being questioned, Davis said. Investigators warned police to be on the lookout for a "darker-skinned or black male" with a possible foreign accent in connection with the attack, according to a law enforcement advisory obtained by CNN. The man was seen with a black backpack and sweatshirt and was trying to get into a restricted area about five minutes before the first explosion, the lookout notice states. Also, a Saudi national with a leg wound was under guard at a Boston hospital in connection with the bombings, but investigators cannot say he is involved at this time and he is not in custody, a law enforcement official said.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In addition to scrutinizing images of surveillance cameras in the area, the FBI likely was issuing subpoenas for records from cell towers in the area to isolate and trace calls from around Copley Square at the time of the blasts, according to a former federal law enforcement official who now works in the intelligence community.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Mayor (Thomas) Menino said: “Our focus is on making sure that the area around Copley Square is safe and secured. I am asking everyone to stay away from Copley Square and let the first responders do their jobs."<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The Federal Aviation Administration placed a flight restriction over the site of the blasts. Other cities, including New York and Washington, tightened security as a result. Following standard protocol, the White House cleared out an area in front of the West Wing.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Troops from the Massachusetts National Guard, already at the site as part of the marathon's security and crowd-management plan, were assisting police as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The FBI has taken over co-ordination of what it described as a "potential terrorist inquiry". Although President Obama, in his initial statement, did not use the word "terrorism", a White House official later said: "Any event with multiple explosive devices - as this appears to be - is clearly an act of terror and will be approached as an act of terror."<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Officials in Washington said no group or individual had so far said they carried out the attack.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. Since the 9/11 acts of catastrophic terrorism in the US Homeland carried out by Al Qaeda, using hijacked aircraft, there have been two attempted acts of catastrophic terrorism by Al Qaeda by causing explosions on US passenger aircraft flying from Europe to the US.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">On 22 December 2001, Richard Reid, a British citizen, boarded American Airlines Flight 63 from Paris to Miami, wearing shoes packed with explosives, which he unsuccessfully tried to detonate. Passengers overpowered him on the plane, which quickly landed at Logan International Airport in Boston, , the closest US airport. He was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>arrested and indicted. He was reported to have been motivated by Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. On December 26,2009,</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Abdul Mutallab, 23, a Nigerian, tried to detonate an explosive device, apparently a mix of powder and liquid, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>on a North-West Airlines flight, coming from Nigeria via Amsterdam, and approaching Detroit. An alert passenger noticed him and he was overpowered. He was believed to have been motivated by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. The Boston Marathon blasts have coincided with a fast reportedly undertaken since March 19,2013, by 24 of the Al Qaeda suspects still held in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre to protest against the alleged inhuman conditions in the Centre.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Activists of a Muslim group called Witness Against Torture (WAT) began a hunger strike <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>in solidarity with the detainees at Guantanamo Bay. The group said in its web site: “We will gather for action in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles and other cities domestically and internationally <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>to denounce the barbaric practice of torture and indefinite detention and to demand justice for the men at Guantanamo.” The solidarity fast by WAT was scheduled to last till March 30. A handful of activists plan to continue fasting every Friday until the prison is closed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>6. There is so far no evidence to indicate that the Boston blasts might have been linked with the fast. No claim of responsibility for the blasts has been made so far and there is till now no evidence to show whether the blasts were carried out by individual rogue elements with personal grievances or ideologically motivated organisations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. While the US Homeland had previously seen acts of catastrophic terrorism and attempts to commit such acts through aircraft, this is the first time a conventional act of terrorism using improvised explosive devices has been committed, if the involvement of rogue individual elements is ruled out. <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. The perpetrators, whether rogue individuals or members of ideologically motivated organisations, have succeeded in evading physical security for the Boston Marathon in procuring explosive material, detonators and timers and planting the IEDs without being noticed by the extensive CCTV camera network along the Marathon route.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. The local security authorities and the FBI do not appear to have received any advance inkling of a possible terrorist strike either through electronic chatter or from human sources.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. The explosions show that despite the strengthening of homeland security in the US after 9/11, terrorists have managed to find intelligence and physical security gaps in the security network and exploited them. The Boston blasts also illustrate the difficulties in preventing conventional style attacks as against sophisticated catastrophic attacks. (16-4-2013)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-71835181708345364872013-04-15T18:58:00.000-07:002013-04-15T18:58:12.734-07:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">BOSTON BLASTS: INITIAL OBSERVATIONS<br />B.RAMAN<br /><br />Three killed, over 100 injured in two explosions about two hours after the lead runners in the Boston Marathon had crossed the winning line on April 15,2013.<br /><br />2.At least two other unexploded improvised explosive devices were reportedly defused by the police..An act of terrorism involving well-timed serial blasts.There was reportedly an interval of only a few minutes between the two explosions.<br /><br />3.It was meant to be an act of mass casualty terrorism.If the IEDs had been planted along the route of the Marathon while it was on there might have been mass panic among the runners resulting in possible stampede. Fortunately, this did not happen.<br /><br />4. Indications till now are that the perpetrators had used low or medium lethality explosives. There are reports of the limbs of some of the injured being blown away. If the explosive was not of high lethality, how did this happen?<br /><br />5.Details of security checks during the Marathon are not known, but the perpetrators had successfully managed to evade whatever physical security was there while planting the IEDs.<br /><br />6. No cliams of responsibility so far. No reports of any prior warnings.No indication that Homeland Security had any prior warning of a possible blast in the form of electronic chatter of the perpetratos or suspect interception and interrogation.The perpetrators had well maintained operational secrecy while planning and executing the blasts.<br /><br />7. No indictation so far whether it was an act of rogue individuals or an organisation. The motive too is not clear. (16-4-2013)<br /><br />( The writer is Additional Secretary (etd),Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi. Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )</div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-56394914533482336222013-04-12T22:36:00.001-07:002013-04-12T22:36:56.517-07:00CAN 1996 REPEAT ITSELF IN AFGHANISTAN?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">As the US troops prepare to thin themselves out of Afghanistan starting from next year, India has to worry whether 1996 can repeat itself in Afghanistan, when the Taliban, with the help of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), captured power from the Afghan Mujahideen in Kabul and enforced its rule.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. In searching for an answer to this question, one has to remember what happened after the Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1989:The Afghan Mujahideen, with ISI’s help, tried to have Najibullah’s army defeated at Jalalabad, so that they could set up a base there. They were defeated by Najibullah, who demonstrated the strength of his army.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1992:The Afghan Mujahideen succeeded in overthrowing Najib <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>by taking advantage of a US-encouraged split between Najibullah and Rashid Dostum and setting up their Govt in Kabul.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1994: Naseerullah Babar, Benazir Bhutto’s Interior Minister, promoted the formation of the Taliban in Kandahar to escort Asif Ali Zardari’s cotton convoys from Turkmenistan. The US established secret contacts with the Taliban to secure its support for a gas-oil pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan being planned by UNOCAL.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1996: The Taliban, with the ISI’s support, overthrew the Mujahideen Government in Kabul and set up its Government.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1996: Ahmed Shah Masood set up his Northern Alliance to counter the Taliban.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1996: Osama bin Laden shifted from Khartoum to Jalalabad and from there to Kandahar where Mulla Omar, the Amir of the Taliban, was based.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1998: bin Laden formed the International Islamic Front for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People for fighting against the US and Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1998:Al Qaeda carried out explosions outside the US Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam.US carried out reprisal Cruise missile attacks on Al Qaeda camps in Jalalabad. Not successful.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">1999:The US demanded that the Taliban should hand over bin Laden to it. It also demanded that Pakistan should force the Taliban to hand over bin Laden to it. Both the Taliban and Pakistan evaded the US demand<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11/9/2001:Al Qaeda carried out its terror strikes in the US homeland.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">October,2001:The US declared its war on the Taliban and Al Qaeda and ordered military action in Afghanistan. The Taliban was overthrown, but Omar and bin Laden crossed over to Pakistan, where they were given shelter by the ISI. The Northern Alliance collaborated with the US in its operations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3.The sequence of events mentioned above was due to the following reasons:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The sudden and abrupt withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The differences between the Pashtoons and the Uzbeks and the consequent lack of unity in the Najibullah Government.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The ambivalent US policy towards the Taliban. It hobnobbed with it initially in the hope of getting its support for the projected UNOCAL pipeline project and realised too late the pernicious nature of the Taliban.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The USA’s misplaced faith in Pakistani co-operation against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 18pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. What is the position now as the US prepares to thin itself out?<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Just as the Soviet troops withdrew in 1988 before effectively defeating the Mujahideen, the US is going to thin itself out before effectively defeating the Neo Taliban and the Haqqani Network, both of which continue to operate from Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The command and control of Al Qaeda based in Pakistan has been badly disrupted, but not eliminated.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">There could be political instability in Afghanistan after President Hamid Karzai completes his term next year leading once again to ethnic differences between the Pashtoons and non-Pashtoons.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The ambivalent US policy towards a possible political role for the so-called good Taliban post-2014 could add to uncertainties and instability.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1988, to facilitate the Soviet withdrawal, Pakistan ensured that there were no attacks on the withdrawing Soviet troops by the Mujahideen. Pakistan had better control over the tribal areas on the Afghan border. Today. Pakistan has little control over the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and will have little ability to facilitate the withdrawal of US troops and equipment.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. Qualitatively, the ground situation post-2014 will differ from that which prevailed in 1988 as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The Soviet withdrawal in 1988 was abrupt and total with no Soviet presence left in Afghanistan. There was no air cover for the Soviet troops due to the effective use of the US-supplied Stinger missiles by the Mujahideen. The US withdrawal is going to be gradual and not abrupt and total. The US will still have some presence with the required air cover in Afghan territory to enable the Afghan troops perform their security role. The Soviet troops left Najibullah all alone without any back-up support to counter the Mujahideen. The US is unlikely to leave the Karzai (his successor’s) Government all alone.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The US fleet of Drones and their effective use will enable the US to prevent the Neo Taliban, the Haqqani network and Al Qaeda under Ayman Al-Zawahiri from re-grouping.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. From 2014, the US will have the limited objective of preventing a come-back by a Neo Al Qaeda that could again pose a threat to the US homeland. The Neo Al Qaeda is presently focusing on Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Africa. After the US thin-out, it might be tempted to re-focus on the Af-Pak region. To prevent this, the US will need a continued capability to maintain a limited ground presence in Afghanistan and operate its fleet of Drones.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. What should be India’s options and policies? If the post-1996 events are repeated in Afghanistan, India may again face serious security problems in Jammu &amp; Kashmir and even in hinterland India. To prevent this, Indian policies should be focused on the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Continue to strengthen the Afghan security forces through training and supply of arms and ammunition.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Strengthen trilateral intelligence co-operation involving the intelligence agencies of India, Afghanistan and the US.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Encourage the US not to repeat the Soviet mistake of total withdrawal, but to maintain a minimum presence in Afghan territory to keep weakening the Neo Taliban and Neo Al Qaeda.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Encourage the US to continue using its Drone fleet and if the US faces any difficulty in using them from Afghan territory, allow the US to operate them from Indian bases.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">Work for a smooth political transition after Karzai completes his term. ( 13-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: distribute-all-lines;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-53467575578760811512013-04-11T19:02:00.001-07:002013-04-11T19:02:05.192-07:00THE CASE AGAINST JAGDISH TYTLER<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">In its online edition, “Outlook” has carried a detailed chronology of the case against Jagdish Tytler, a functionary of the Congress (I), in connection with allegations of his involvement in the murder of some Sikhs during the massacre of about 3000 Sikhs in certain areas of Delhi after the assassination of Indira Gandhi by two of her Sikh bodyguards from the Delhi Police on October 31,1984. This may be seen at <a href="http://blogs.outlookindia.com/default.aspx?ddm=10&amp;pid=2961&amp;eid=5"><span style="color: blue;">http://blogs.outlookindia.com/default.aspx?ddm=10&amp;pid=2961&amp;eid=5</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. The massacres led to two kinds of complaints by sections of the Sikh community . The first was about studied inaction by the Delhi Police in the face of the massacres without effective action to stop them. The second was regarding the role of some functionaries of the Congress (I) in the massacres. Three of the Congress functionaries accused by some sections of the Sikh community of orchestrating the massacres were H.K.L.Bhagat, Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar. Bhagat is since dead. Tytler and Sajjan Kumar faced enquiries and investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The Government of India ordered Ved Marwah, former Commissioner of Delhi Police, to enquire into complaints of police inaction. When it was found that he had taken his task seriously and was trying to identify police officers guilty of inaction, the enquiry was taken out of his hands. The whole thing was subsequently covered up.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. The investigations by the CBI were perceived by large sections of public opinion to be another cover-up exercise to protect the Congress functionaries allegedly involved, particularly Tytler, who was alleged to be close to the family of Indira Gandhi. Tytler did not suffer any political or criminal consequences as a result of the investigations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.In 2007--- 23 years after the massacres--the CBI submitted to the trial court <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>a Final Report claiming that there was not sufficient evidence to warrant Tytler’s prosecution. As it was contended by some Sikhs that the CBI had not examined an eye-witness living in the US, a Sessions Court rejected the FR and ordered the CBI to further investigate the case and record the statement of the alleged eye-witness living in the US.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. The CBI did so and submitted another FR in 2009 claiming that there was still no evidence to warrant the prosecution of Tytler. The court accepted the FR this time and the case against Tytler was sought to be closed once for all.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. The “Outlook” narrative has quoted Ritu Sarin of the “Indian Express” as finding out that two senior officers of the CBI had recommended that the investigation should be completed and all the evidence put up before a court in the form of a charge-sheet against Tytler and it should be left to the court to decide whether the evidence is sufficient to convict Tytler.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. According to “Outlook”, Ashwani Kumar, who was the Director of the CBI from August 2008 to November,2010, rejected their recommendation and ordered the submission of an FR once again stating that there was not sufficient evidence to warrant the prosecution of Tytler. This was done. After his retirement, Shri Ashwani Kumar has recently been appointed as the Governor of Nagaland. This appointment has come in for allegations in sections of the media as a quid pro quo for his decisions favouring the Government when he held office.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. Following complaints by sections of the Sikh community that there are other eye-witness now living in the US, who were not examined by the CBI before submitting an FR for a second time in 2009, a Sessions Court has ordered a further <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>investigation of the charges against Tytler by the CBI.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. The massacres of about 3000 Sikhs after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, with some functionaries of the Congress allegedly playing an active role in orchestrating the massacres, has illustrated the cover-up culture of the Congress, which pushed under the carpet complaints of inaction by the Delhi Police and then sought to distort the CBI investigation to ensure that no functionary of the Congress suffered adverse consequences.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. A clean chit was twice sought to be given to Tytler on the basis of an incomplete investigation. He <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>continues to be an important member of the Congress, defended and protected by senior leaders of the Congress <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>and he roams around as a free man <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>appearing in one TV channel after another to discredit the witnesses against him outside a court of law.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. In the years since 1984, the credibility of the CBI as the premier investigating agency of the Government of India has repeatedly taken a beating. The entire investigation process in the Government of India stands discredited at the political and professional levels and hardly anyone takes the CBI seriously<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13. If the credibility of our criminal justice system has to be restored and if we have to win the confidence of the Sikh community, it is important that the further investigation against Tytler be done in a time-bound manner by a special investigation team reporting directly to the court.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">14. We have failed to do justice to our Sikh community for nearly three decades after the massacres were committed. It is time to end this Government-sponsored charade of investigation and identify and punish the guilty. ( 12-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-54831926306236866392013-04-10T23:09:00.004-07:002013-04-10T23:09:58.885-07:00KIM JONG-UN: CHINESE CONCERNS & CAUTION<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">As <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Kim Jong-Un of North Korea, who completes one year as First Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea on April 11,2013,uses North Korea’s power of escalatory rhetoric to threaten the region with the danger of a nuclear war if its demands are not met, there is increasing nervousness not only among North Korea’s perceived adversaries such as the US, South Korea and Japan, but also in its traditional friend next door, namely, China.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. Does Kim realise the implications of the threats which he has been holding out against his adversaries? Does he realise that if he carries out his threats or if he loses control of the situation under the irrational force of his rhetoric, he would be seriously endangering not only the national interests and security of his own country, but also<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>those of North Korea’s traditional friends such as China?<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. Even Fidel Castro, in a recent column for a Cuban paper for which he writes now and then, has pointed out the likely dangers to North Korea’s traditional friends if the situation in the Korean peninsula gets out of control. He has not named the traditional friends of North Korea, but it is apparent he was having in mind China and Russia.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. The Government and Party-controlled media in China has been increasingly---initially indirectly, now directly--- reflecting the concerns in China over the developing situation in the Korean peninsula in the wake of the recent North Korean nuclear and missile tests and the new sanctions sought to be imposed against it under pressure from the US.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. The Chinese concerns are reflected very clearly in two commentaries carried by the ‘People’s Daily” and the “Global Times”, both run by the Communist Party of China, on April 11, coinciding with the first anniversary of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Kim Jong-Un’s leadership of the Party<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. The “People’s Daily” commentary, explaining China’s policy of not allowing trouble-making at its doorstep, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>said: “ Not allowing troublemaking at the doorsteps of China means to stop the vicious circle of tension on the peninsula, to prevent any party from stirring up trouble, to oppose creating tension on purpose, and to say no to render the use of force to resolve the problem. Words and deeds that intensify the tensions on the Korean Peninsula should be condemned and opposed. Not allowing troublemaking at the doorsteps of China is not China's "Monroe Doctrine". China does not seek spheres of influence. China intends to maintain regional peace and stability on the Peninsula, and determine its own position and actions in accordance with the Peninsula situation on its own merits. At present, it is not without hope to maintain peace and stability on the peninsula.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. The “Global Times” was even more explicit in cautioning North Korea. It said: <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Since the transition of Pyongyang's leadership, the outside world has been speculating over the future direction of the regime. North Korea is sure to change, because its current situation is unsustainable and is placing huge pressure on the country. Escaping this pressure fits the North's interests and would allow the country to meet external expectations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“During the past year, the nuclear issue has remained at the centre of the North's domestic and foreign policies. The new leadership has shown its resolve, which is to develop nuclear technologies, rather than solve the nuclear crisis. The regime has taken an extreme path.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Pyongyang should clearly understand that it does not have the capability to dominate the situation in the Korean Peninsula. Its nuclear capacity to some extent makes it feel secure, but at the same time it worsens its international strategic environment. Pyongyang should drop its illusions that it can make the world stay silent over its desire for nuclear arms through its hard-line stance and deceptions.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“The international community will never permit North Korea to have the legal status of a nuclear country, because it would lead to more devastating consequences. A number of Asian countries have acquired nuclear weapons, but none of them use them in the manner North Korea envisions.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“The North Korean regime has to face up to the difficulties in returning to the international community if it refuses to give up its nuclear ambitions. Even if the US and South Korea make concessions, the North still confronts problems such as sanctions and economic obstacles. Concrete moves are needed to solve the current dilemma that the North faces.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“China respects North Korea, but it also holds the responsibility of preserving peace in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang's nuclear issue concerns China's national interests. We hope that the North Korean regime can stay rational and pay attention to the interests of the whole region as its bottom line. We also hope that its moves will not pose threats to the peace and stability of China's north-eastern area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“North Korea has more difficulties in opening itself up to the world. The stances of South Korea, Japan and the US are partly the reason. Regardless of the situation, we believe the North still has a chance and we regret that it has become mired in this crisis. We hope the crisis is only temporary.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8.A perusal of the recent comments in the Chinese media indicates that Chinese observers feel there is need for fresh thinking on the question of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capability. It seems to be their view that after all that has happened recently the question of a negotiated de-nuclearisation of North Korea is no longer a viable option. A more practical option could be to work for a freezing of North Korea’s capability at the present level in return for a Chinese offer of its nuclear umbrella to North Korea to calm its fears regarding the US nuclear umbrella for South Korea and Japan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. Will such an offer work? The US may not accept any attempt to legitimise North Korea’s present capability as that could create problems in relation to Iran. Moreover, the present North Korean leadership seems determined not to accept any externally imposed constraints on its nuclear and missile capabilities.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. How to calm the North Korean leadership and de-escalate the situation? The Chinese do not seem to have an answer. They seem to know so little about the mind-set of Kim Jong-Un and his advisers. He has not visited China since assuming office. He had visited China along with his father, but as the ruler of North Korea after the death of his father Kim Jong-Il, he and his advisers have not maintained the same level of contacts with the party and PLA leadership of China as during the days of his father.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. China is no longer an important and reliable window on North Korea as it used to be in the past. It is as confused by the policies and unpredictability of Kim Jong-Un and his advisers as the US and South Korea. As Kim, who had done his schooling in Switzerland, took over as the supreme leader in December 2011 after the death of his father, there was a fond expectation that his exposure to the West as a student might make him amenable to a policy of gradually opening up his country to the outside world.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. This has not happened. Is it because he himself is not inclined to pursuing a policy of opening-up or because he is unable to overcome opposition from the old guards in the Army and the Party to any policy change. One has not so far seen in the Party and the Army a new generation wanting to experiment with new policies in the economic field.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13. In the face of a dearth of information regarding the new post-December 2011 leadership in North Korea, China has been finding the recent developments as unnerving as the rest of the international community. Apart from articulating its concerns and caution and expressing its hope that things will not reach a point of no return, China has been finding its ability to influence the developments in a constructive direction limited. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>(11-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-61152486173946839032013-04-08T18:38:00.002-07:002013-04-08T18:38:27.327-07:00CONTINUING FERMENT IN TIBETAN AREAS OF CHINA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The anti-Han and anti-Beijing ferment, marked by endless self-immolations of freedom-loving Tibetans---monks and others, young and old, men and women---- continues in the Tibetan areas of China.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2. There have already been 114 self-immolations so far---the majority in the Tibetan areas of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Sichuan, where the self-immolations started in 2009 following Chinese suppression of the monks of the Kirti monastery.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The Chinese attempts to intimidate the potential self-immolators by jailing friends and relatives of some self-immolators on charges of abetment of suicide have failed to crush the movement. The more the suppression, the more the self-immolations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. In their desperation, the Chinese projected the movement as orchestrated by His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his overseas supporters and by the Voice of America. Finding that their allegations had no takers in the international community, they are now trying to blame some Tibetan followers of His Holiness in Dharamsala, India, for allegedly instigating the self-immolations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. On March 18,2013, the State-owned Xinhua news agency disseminated the following report: <o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Chinese police have sent co-investigation request to police authorities in related countries concerning a 32-year-old man who instigated a self-immolation incident in which two teenage boys died.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Police in southwest China's Sichuan Province said two teenagers died after setting themselves ablaze in Jamcha Village, Ruoergai County, in the Tibetan-Qiang Autonomous Prefecture of Aba.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Rinchen Tseli, 15, and Sonam Dakyi, 16, self-immolated on Feb. 19 and died at the scene, according to a statement released Monday by police authorities.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Fear and homesickness prompted Ye Ja, a 17-year-old who had planned to self-immolate with the other two teens, to reconsider, said the statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Police said they found that Rinchen Tseli's 32-year-old uncle, known as Tenpa Gyatso, among other names, organized the self-immolations. He formerly served as a monk in the Jage Monastery in Jamcha Village.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“Tenpa Gyatso illegally crossed the border to India's Dorje Monastery in 2007, and he was also a staff member with the press contact group of India's Kirti Monastery. He maintained close contact with Rinchen Tseli and inculcated the idea of "Tibet independence" upon him frequently, said the statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>“Since January, Tenpa Gyatso repeatedly incited Rinchen Tseli to self-immolate through the Internet-based smartphone chatting software WeChat and claimed that self-immolators are "national heroes," according to the statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">“"The Indian side will carve your name on the Monument to Self-immolators in Takla Sala and pray for you. You will become an extraordinary man," Tenpa Gyatso encouraged Rinchen Tseli, according to the statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. By “co-investigation request”, the Chinese apparently mean a request for mutual legal assistance in the investigation. The Xinhua despatch does not name the countries to which the co-investigation request has been addressed, but India is likely to be one of them since it has been alleged that Tenpa Gyatso works for a monastery <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>in India and was in China till 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. In the past, the Chinese had blamed organisations such as the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) and members of the diaspora for the self-immolations, without directly blaming anyone in India or seeking Indian assistance in the investigation. This is the first time they had named someone in India and sought mutual legal assistance in the investigation.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. To my knowledge, India does not have a treaty on mutual legal assistance with China. We are not bound to take cognisance of Chinese allegations and request for legal assistance. India should not become an unwitting party to Chinese attempts to intimidate freedom-loving Tibetans.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. In the meanwhile, the Chinese authorities are reported to have circulated in the Tibetan areas a list of “Unlawful” activities by Tibetans which would result in police action against them. According to Radio Free Asia, activities made punishable include fund-raising “in the name of social welfare,” urging protection of the environment or the Tibetan language, and conducting prayer rituals or other religious ceremonies if these carry “overtones” of support for Tibetan independence. ( 9-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and ,presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-66419297625956905642013-04-06T19:21:00.003-07:002013-04-06T19:21:29.888-07:00PAKISTAN ELECTIONS---A PREVIEW<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">The forthcoming Pakistani elections to the National Assembly on May 11,2013, should be of close interest to India. Will the elections pave the way for another five years of civilian rule uninterrupted by Army intervention or will there be new instability prompting the Army to intervene? It is too early to answer this question, but certain issues need to be underlined.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.Despite the usual ups and downs in Indo-Pakistan relations which come in the way of normalisation of bilateral ties, one has to acknowledge that the five years of rule by the coalition headed by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) saw a new mindset in Islamabad marked by a loosening of the historic obsession with the Kashmir issue. It is no longer Kashmir or nothing. The PPP-led Government showed a willingness to give a try to past suggestions from India and others, including the US and China, not to oppose progress in other issues such as bilateral trade by continuing to make the bilateral relations a hostage to the Kashmir issue.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. While the Pakistan Army under Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, continued to regard India as the main threat to Pakistan and did not relent in its attempts to undermine any Indian role in Afghanistan, it did not come in the way of the attempts of the civilian Government to improve bilateral relations in other fields.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. Indian attempts to encourage the signs of a new mindset in the Pakistani leadership were thwarted by the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the lack of sincerity and seriousness in the Pakistani leadership in acting against Hafiz Mohd Sayeed, the Amir of the LET, and other Pakistan-based masterminds of the 26/11 strikes in Mumbai. The recent violation of the Line of Control (LOC) in Jammu and Kashmir by the Pakistan Army and its brutal beheading of an Indian soldier added to suspicions that the Pakistani military leadership continued to give primacy to its traditional policy of keeping India bleeding in J&amp;K.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5. Despite these negative factors, two seemingly positive factors need to be noted. The first is the absence of any major act of terrorism by ISI-sponsored jihadi organisations in Indian territory outside J&amp;K after 26/11.The second is the similar absence of ISI-sponsored attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. One would have thought that the ISI-sponsored organisations, particularly the LET, would have exploited the unhappiness among sections of the Muslim community over the execution of Afzal Guru, one of the perpetrators of the attack on the Indian Parliament in December,2001, to revive mass fatality terrorist attacks in the Indian territory outside J&amp;K. This has not happened. There is so far no credible evidence of any Pakistani hand in the recent terrorist incident in Hyderabad.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7. One has to be alert to the possibility of a reprisal attack by the LET and the Karachi-based Dawood Ibrahim group to avenge the recent confirmation by the Supreme Court of the sentences passed against the perpetrators of the March 1993 serial blasts in Mumbai, which marked the beginning of the ISI attempts to spread jihadi attacks to Indian territory outside J&amp;K. There would be need for special security caution in Mumbai and Gujarat. There could be attempts by jihadi elements – indigenous or LET-orchestrated--- to discredit Narendra Modi as he emerges as the possible next Prime Minister by disturbing internal security in Gujarat.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. While the strength and capability of the LET and other ISI-sponsored jihadi organisations for carrying out acts of mass fatality terrorism in hinterland India continue to improve, their lying low since 26/11 is an indicator of the Pakistan Army’s keenness not to be seen by the international community as coming in the way of the civilian leadership’s attempt to avoid new frictions in the relations with India.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. The poll campaign in Pakistan is yet to pick up steam, but one could see that while the fundamentalist and jihadi organisations continue to be venomous in their attitude to India and in their determination to make India bleed whenever and wherever they can, the political mainstream is slowly coming round to the view that perennial hostility to India may prove counter-productive.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. As one waits for a clearer indictor of the likely outcome of the polls, one has to be worried over the possibility of rogue elephant terrorist organisations such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Sunni extremist Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) causing major disruptions in the elections, particularly in the Pashtoon areas and in Karachi. If they can disrupt the elections in Karachi and aggravate the instability there, the political consequences could be unpredictable.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. Keeping aside the security scenario, one notices from the reports coming out of Pakistan that there is so much disenchantment with the five-year rule of the PPP-led coalition that the chances of the Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (PML) coming to power have improved despite some support for Imran Khan in Punjab and the Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa (KP) province.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. In Pakistan, the mainstream media is generally better disposed towards Nawaz Sharif than to Asif Ali Zardari. Despite their optimistic projections of the chances of Nawaz, one should not rule out a repeat of the 2008 elections--- with the PPP doing well in Sindh Rural and the Seraiki areas of Southern Punjab, its ally Awami National Party (ANP) doing well in KP and the Pashtoon pockets of Karachi, the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Altaf Hussain retaining its traditional Karachi strongholds and Nawz’s PML doing well in Central Punjab despite the challenge from Imran Khan. If Imran Khan does well it will be more at the expense of the PML and the ANP than<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>of the PPP.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">13. Whether 2008 is repeated or whether a new combination of political forces emerges on top, it will be in India’s interest to welcome the continuance of civilian rule and remain engaged <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>with the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>new civilian leadership in an attempt to give a benign direction to Indo-Pakistan relations. ( 7-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter @SORBONNE75)<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-4438150345520155632013-04-04T02:19:00.000-07:002013-04-04T02:19:04.602-07:00NEED FOR CAUTION IN SPACE-RELATED ACADEMIC EXCHANGES WITH CHINA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">&nbsp;</span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">B.RAMAN<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">According to a report carried by “The Hindu” of April 4,2013, “ the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT), a Government-run research university known for its work on China’s space programme, signed on April 3 a first of its kind Memorandum of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Understanding (MOU) with Karnataka-based Manipal University paving the way for closer collaboration on joint research projects.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">2.The report adds that the Manipal Universirty will sign on <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>April 5 an MOU with BIT’s sister university, the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics in southern<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Jiangsu province.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">3. The report also says: “Both universities have ties to China’s space programme and also run research and development programmes related to defence projects.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">4. For China, research and espionage are synonymous .Chinese universities and nuclear and space research establishments often provide academic cover to their intelligence officers for the collection of intelligence.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">5.A Chinese university in Shanghai allegedly collaborates with China’s offensive cyber intelligence set-up to enable the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) develop a capability for infiltrating foreign cyber networks.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">6. Strengthening counter-intelligence capabilities against China is a priority task for Western intelligence agencies and particularly for the US intelligence community. Since the Chinese intelligence techniques for the collection of nuclear and space related intelligence from the US came to notice during the Clinton Administration, the US Government has considerably strengthened its counter-intelligence capability against China. This subject is constantly under review by the Congressional Intelligence Oversight Committees. The US intelligence agencies are cautious in vetting and cleating academic exchange programmes with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Chinese academic institutions which are suspected to act as Trojan Horses for the Chinese intelligence.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">7.Our intelligence and counter-intelligence capabilities relating to China are weak. After the 1962 war, we found that China had more intelligence about us than we had about China. Since then steps have been taken to improve our capabilities for counter-intelligence against China. There are still deficiencies.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">8. For the Chinese intelligence agencies, among priority targets in their briefs for intelligence collection in India are our space establishments in and around Bengaluru <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>and our space launching sites on the East coast. Another penetration target for them is the Indo-Russian Brahmo project.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">9. The presence of Chinese space experts in Manipal<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>will enable the Chinese to use Manipal as a base for putting in place an intelligence collection network under the cover of an academic exchange programmne.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">10. When asked about the security aspects of the programme, Shri M.D.Nalapat, Honorary Director of the Department of Geopolitics of the Manipal University, has stated as follows: “ It makes no sense for us to avoid dealing with China when every other country in the world is embracing China---even the US and the EU, where universities are having far more in-depth engagement than what we are proposing.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">11. It is a simplistic argument which can prove counter-productive. No one can object to in-depth exchanges with Chinese institutions in fields like humanities, special areas like energy conservation, pollution control, disaster management etc. But before engaging in exchanges in very sensitive fields like nuclear and space research, we have to be certain that we have the required counter-intelligence capability to prevent the Chinese from misusing the exchanges for intelligence collection and sabotage like injecting computer viruses into the computer networks of our nuclear and space establishments. We had seen what happened in Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">12. The Manipal University’s initiative needs close scrutiny from the Counter-Intelligence angle before it is cleared by our intelligence community. (4-4-13)<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;">( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt lof India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial Black&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></div></div>B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.com3