International Business Cycle Synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach

Antonakakis, Nikolaos and Gogas, Periklis and Papadimitriou, Theophilos and Sarantitis, Georgios
(2015):
International Business Cycle Synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach.

Abstract

In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.

Item Type:

MPRA Paper

Original Title:

International Business Cycle Synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach

Gogas, P., 2013. Business Cycle Synchronisation in the European Union: The Effect of the Common Currency. OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2013 (1), 1-14.

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