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The electoral tidal wave’s damage

American voters have spoken. And, in a tidal wave, the Republicans have won an overwhelming majority in the US House of Representatives and, by the time this paper was sent to print, reduced the Democratic majority in the US Senate to less than a handful of votes.

The Republican ascendancy has implications for Europeans interested in co-operation with the United States on Afghanistan, the global economy and climate change. Washington, which European leaders gripe has become more difficult to work with in the past two years, is about to become an even more frustrating partner for Europe.

President Barack Obama promised to begin drawing down US troops in Afghanistan by mid-2011, a move that should be music to the ears of many war-weary Europeans. But only 22% of Republican voters support this policy, according to the recent German Marshall Fund “Transatlantic Trends” survey. This promises second-guessing from Congressional Republicans about whether Obama is ‘losing’ that war.

The Obama administration, along with its European allies, wants to negotiate with Tehran about its nuclear programme. But Republican voters support a far more robust posture: one in five would take military action now to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and more than eight in ten would take such action if non-military efforts failed. Strident Republican voices are likely to complicate the administration’s pursuit of a measured escalation of pressure on Iran.

And, while there is a widespread European desire for Obama to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, there is a deep partisan divide in the US. Only 12% of Republicans approve of Obama’s handling of the Middle East, compared with 76% of Democrats. Any perceived pressure on the Israeli government will be strongly resisted by Congressional Republicans.

The US federal budget deficit is a key driver of the global imbalances that imperil Europe’s economic recovery. The new Republican Congressional leadership has promised to cut spending. But austerity-minded Europeans need to look beyond such rhetoric. Republicans promise not to cut Social Security (pensions), Medicare and Medicaid (healthcare for the elderly and the poor) and defence spending, which account for more than three-fifths of the US budget. Moreover, Republicans plan to extend Bush-era tax cuts at a cost of $370 billion (€265bn) a year in lost revenue. Republicans have also pledged to repeal healthcare reforms that Obama has enacted and that would eventually save $10bn (€7.2bn) a year. This arithmetic does not add up and the US debt may continue to grow.

Prospects for meaningful US action on climate change, long a European priority, are even more remote. Obama could not pass climate-change legislation when he had a nine-seat majority in the Senate. US climate-change legislation is not a prospect for the next year, in part because 70% of conservative Tea Party voters say there is no solid evidence of global warming. White House promises to pursue emissions controls through executive regulation are likely to be frustrated by Republican plans to withhold funding needed to enforce such rules.

Finally, in the past two years Europeans have complained about the partisan divide in Washington. It is about to get worse. Republicans have promised to begin Congressional investigations of the White House, which will poison Congressional-White House relations whether or not wrongdoing is found. While optimists hope that divided government will force Republicans and Democrats to co-operate, pessimists warn that Washington may experience two years of trench warfare in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election.

If European observers ever wondered if American elections matter, this mid-term election is likely to demonstrate how important shifts in political power can be, especially for Europeans and others who did not get a vote.

Bruce Stokes is a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a contributing editor at the National Journal.