Tuesday roundup – post-debate movement favors Clinton, more

Post-debate movement in the polls

Democrat Hillary Clinton has moved out to a larger lead, both in the popular vote projection and in the Electoral College, since last week’s first presidential debate. The move has not been dramatic, but with so many competitive states around the country, even a minor shift can result in a significant realignment on the electoral map. Republican Donald Trump earned his best EV showing on September 22, a few days before the debate (272-266 in favor of Clinton). Since then, the former secretary of state has reclaimed Florida and Nevada and built a small lead in North Carolina. And though Florida shifted before the debate, Nevada and North Carolina both shed their red shade as a result of polls taken after the debate.

With just five weeks until Election Day – and early voting just around the corner – Trump needs to mount another comeback quickly akin to his early September improvement to recapture a legitimate shot at the White House. Using only polling data to form an opinion on the status of the election, Clinton is clearly ahead. However, who will turn out and in what quantities continues to be a huge unknown that precludes any confidence in that outcome.

Here are several critical questions that will remain unanswered until election night.

How many Trump supporters are not being counted in the polls because they are either newly registered (and thus not included in pollsters’ “likely voter” models) or unwilling to admit their support when pollsters call?

The answer to these questions will determine in large part who wins in November.

Other stories

New Mexico Presidential election – Could this crazy result be in the cards? Nate Silver opines that Libertarian Gary Johnson, a well-liked, former governor of New Mexico, could carry his home state. The chance is very remote, according to Silver, but were it to happen, the winner of the presidential contest could be decided by the House of Representatives. (In the case where no candidate gets the majority in the Electoral College, the House votes to determine the next president.)