and there's Manchin...hey man, republicans in West Virginia aren't going to vote for you because you voted for a few of Trump's nominees, they don't give a shit and when Trump says you'll let in all the illegal immigrants they believe it

I don't know if they'll ever overturn it. It's such a super easy issue for them to rally up their base.

Of course, they've already done a very good job of limiting access in many parts of the country, and with this whole Kavanaugh debacle, I think pro-choice activists will just become more activist, if not criminal.

With the Internet, abortion pills, and new technology in general, I can't imagine people are just gonna sit around and watch marginalized girls and women die in botched abortions.

I agree, I’ve argued here they won’t overturn it, maybe if they end up blocking all immigration. Too good of a wedge issue... I know plenty people who claim to hate most republican policies except abortion.

I really, really do believe Avenatti made things worse. Him grandstanding with the 3rd accuser without really presenting her/witnesses made it easier to dismiss the first two, who seemed to be much more credible.

I wish I shared the optimism of people who think the republicans would rather have this as an issue to rally the base, but the fact is many states have made getting an abortion either difficult or nearly impossible. What you’re asking the conservatives on the court to do isn’t just to affirm that roe is settled law, but to actually force states to comply and strike down the laws they’ve already created. I just don’t see this court doing that...certainly not any of the federalist society members.

Twitter is completely consumed with this Kavanaugh thing more than anything else I’ve seen. The 500 million tax fraud story is getting no oxygen.

Trying to trace back how this started... even before these allegations Kavanaugh was unpopular, the most unpopular nominee to ever look like they would get appointed.

The Ford stuff came out and everything exploded. More allegations came out. Then Kavanaugh has a meltdown during his hearing which I view as the inflection point. If Kavanaugh only had a normal testimony and didn’t meltdown, he’d probably be in a lot better position.

Cause I'm not sure I can tell anymore. The secret racists who'd rather be sick themselves than watch black folk go to the doctor...the idiot white women who wanna cry about sexual assault but put Trump in the White House...all the young people who are supposedly disaffected and sick of our shit...

Cause I'm not sure I can tell anymore. The secret racists who'd rather be sick themselves than watch black folk go to the doctor...the idiot white women who wanna cry about sexual assault but put Trump in the White House...all the young people who are supposedly disaffected and sick of our shit..."

Democratic men became more supportive of Kavanaugh after the accusation.

I don’t think there’s enough new voters who are angry that will come out in the midterms to cancel these men out.

I think generic ballot polling is already in tossup range in terms of flipping the house or not.

However, the pussy grabbing tape came out this long before the election, so there’s still a lot of time left for new issues to sway voters. We’re in an eerily similar situation to the last presidential election.

Americans want democrats in charge by a +7 margin, democrats have a 60-75% chance to flip the house, but there’s no clear message to build momentum on, its still “look how disgusting trump and his supporters are”.

Trump’s massive half billion dollar tax fraud against his tenants was completely drowned out by Kavanaugh. New York State is investigating the tax fraud... if they could manage to announce some big news before the election re the taxes, this would be good for democrats.

Mueller has a grand jury hearing scheduled 2 days after the election.

My gut feeling now is democrats completely lose momentum and gop manages to hold the House and Senate.

^^^no, I agree that accusations alone with absolutely no evidence should never be used to dq someone. And I agree that he absolutely lied under oath (about drinking and the devil's triangle, etc) and should have been disqualified for that. Those are not mutually exclusive statements. But everyone here knows that politicians do not give one ounce of fuck about oying, on both sides and hence you have a nomination confirmed

Even though I believe he did it, I don’t think that alone disqualified him because there is limited definitive evidence. That said, obvious lies about ^ and his Clinton revenge conspiracy theory issues should be enough.

"Even though I believe he did it, I don’t think that alone disqualified him because there is limited definitive evidence."

If they're pretty sure you have a tendency to get blackout drunk and have occasionally assaulted people here or there, that's enough for plenty of potential employers to pass on you for tons of jobs.

Of course, if you're a changed person, or you're being mischaracterized, you can always demonstrate it to a potential employer. But for us regular folks, that demonstration normally doesn't involve shouting that you like beer and the liberals are out to get you.

Eye witness testimony is notoriously wrong in many, many cases. It is the furthest thing from scientific certainty possible. It's why you have to have physical evidence to go along with it to even consider prosecution, let alone having a chance of winning.

The lying is certainly suspicious enough to warrant a full investigation but it is not proof he's also lying about rape. It may be as simple as him not wanting people to think he's a drunk.

To be clear I believe Ford but my personal opinion (no one's personal opinion) should ever be the deciding factor in a legal case. Evidence and rule of law have got to be the foundation for making decisions. But again, this nomination should have been killed the second he lied, no matter what the lie was. And a larger point stands - when looked at from the standpoint of a job interview, there were plenty of other candidates equally qualified with zero baggage like this. This ramrodding was completely about conservative domination. That party has completely given up on patriotism.

I can't imagine the kind of hiring committees y'all be running. Like, some guy with four DUI acquittals comes in shouting about how much he likes beer and how there's no evidence he ever did anything wrong! He just likes beer, goddamnit!

And y'all would evidently scramble all over yourselves to make him a school bus driver.

It seems that what really mattered for this committee is the ability to blame their poor decision on the FBI or some concept like "rule of law." So, every time you bring that stuff up, like maybe the Republicans' hands were tied...they just couldn't find enough evidence to disqualify him...and they didn't want to just use their personal opinion...you're giving them an enormous pass for confirming a guy who very clearly doesn't respect basic concepts like the rule of law.

Like, Cherokee, if you strongly believe in the rule of law and think it should be applied to all situations always, then you should be calling for Kavanaugh's impeachment right now.

This was a 100% “own the libs” decision, has nothing to do with due process or innocent until proven guilty

Kavanaugh’s nomination would have been pulled by any other administration for his meltdown in congress alone.

Once his approval rating became negative they wouldn’t have the votes.

Calling out “virtue signaling” used to be all the rage, but that’s all this was. The gop wanted to send the message that theyll make the Democrats look like losers no matter the practicality of the outcome.

If it was about due process why not have a real investigation

Where is the “innocent until proven guilty” crowd when there are police shootings of unarmed innocent people?

As long as trump is in power, the GOP’s only concern is owning the libs, no matter who or what is hurt. This was the reason for pulling out of the Iran deal, ending ACA cost sharing reduction payments, tariffs, trump’s trashing of UN and NATO alliances, and practically every other major trump initiative.

^^I don't think it was about "owning the libs." In the GOP's mind, it was retaliatory for what they felt was a political hit job right before the vote.

Personally I'm not saying it was a hit job. That's just how they viewed/view it. I think if the allegations had been brought out sooner, not as close to the November mid-terms, then perhaps the GOP might have been willing to give time for a full investigation. As such, they wanted to get this mess over with as soon as possible because they felt like Democrats were trying to drag it out and get the confirmation hearing moved to as close to the midterm votes as possible.

Reps confirmed the justice they wanted as retaliation?? What would they have done if accusations never happened??

Also yea, the confirmation is near the November mid terms, so yea, information is going to come out near the November midterms. Democrats almost def wanted to keep this past the November midterms but thats mostly irrelevant bc the have no power in the process. Reps, on the other hand, were doing everything in their power to rush this through even before the accusations came out. They reviewed like 3% of his record and made no attempt to examine his shady finances.

And isn't it bad that a group wants to force something through bc of fear they will lose an election? Isn't that a sign they are afraid the American people don't want them to do that something??

Polls are showing a blip in gop enthusiasm post Kavanaugh but I think now (as opposed to my feelings a few days ago) this was a huge mistake for the gop.

Lefty twitter is STILL talking about Kavanaugh, I’ve never seen this level of anger linger so long after an issue was “resolved” — not the Muslim ban, not the child camps, not the Iran deal or Paris accord.

Nope. This was a win. Liberals have convinced themselves that elections are the only thing that matters (which they still fucking manage to lose). This is an incorrect take.

The goal of politics is not electoral victories. It's executive, legislative, and judicial action. The right just tilted the courts firmly in their favor. They have all three branches of government firmly in their pocket. That is a tremendous amount of power that they will be sure to use to their benefit (and to our detriment). Hold on to your fuckin' butts.