Just For Fun

Ever since the midterm congressional election last year, Republicans have been repeating the phrase "The American People" as often as they can, as a sort of mantra. This isn't all that unusual, since politicians claiming a popular mandate is par for the course in the political game. But Republicans are exhibiting a rather large amount of overreach when it comes to claiming what "The American People" really want the government to do (and not to do). This is going to be on full display in the coming weeks, as the budget fights heat up (finishing this year's budget, raising the debt ceiling, and tackling next year's budget). Most Republicans, especially those of the Tea Party persuasion, are firmly convinced they've got a sweeping mandate to slash federal spending in all sorts of areas. But they may be surprised by what the public really thinks about these issues, and what they do and do not support. Helpfully, a new poll put out by the Wall Street Journal and NBC shows a clear list of priorities for what the people really want to see cut, and what they don't.

The answers, however, may come as a complete surprise to the inside-the-Beltway set -- both politicians and the mainstream media. Because it is not what we've been told, by both Republicans and their media enablers, in recent months.

For instance, while Republicans are obsessed over deficits, the public's number one issue is jobs and the economy -- which it pretty consistently has been for months. Republicans, though, have largely dropped the "jobs" issue like a hot potato after the midterms. No jobs bills have made it through even the House of Representatives, while Republicans pat themselves on the back and hold the ridiculous hearings and ridiculous votes they have been itching for, during their time in the minority party wilderness. The public even supports, by a thin margin, the government doing more for people rather than less -- which is not exactly what the Republicans ran on in the last campaign.

But that's not the real news. The poll actually made a good attempt at tackling the question: "What do Americans want to see the federal government cut?" They asked the question in two slightly different ways, with an extensive list of options for people to choose from. The poll isn't perfect (no poll is), some of which I'll address at the end. But the answers to these questions showed some very interesting differences in the priorities of the American people versus the priorities the Republicans are hewing to in Congress. From the full poll report (pages 16 and 17, in specific), here is the list, in order of the relative public support for each idea:

[Numbers given below are, in order: "percent approve" followed by "percent disapprove"]

[81-17] -- Placing a surtax on federal income taxes for people earning over one million dollars a year

[78-17] -- Eliminating spending on so-called earmarks for special projects and specific areas of the country

[44-50] -- Gradually turning Medicare from a system in which the government pays for most beneficiaries' medical bills into a program in which seniors would receive government-issued vouchers in order to purchase private health insurance

[43-55] -- Cutting unemployment insurance

[41-56] -- Cutting funding for the Head Start pre-kindergarten program

[39-59] -- Cutting college student loans

[34-65] -- Cutting heating assistance to low-income families

[32-67] -- Cutting Medicaid, the federal government health care program for the poor

[23-76] -- Cutting Medicare, the federal government health care program for seniors

[22-76] -- Cutting K through 12 education

[22-77] -- Cutting Social Security

That is what "The American People" think about deficit cutting (I have a few caveats, which I'll address at the end). By an overwhelming majority -- over eight in ten people think the best idea to cut our deficits is to slap higher taxes on millionaires.

Roughly three-fourths of Americans think that eliminating earmarks, eliminating redundant weapons systems, and eliminating oil and gas industry tax breaks are all dandy ideas. The same three-fourths think it would be a bad idea to cut Social Security, K-through-12 education funds, and Medicare.

An overwhelming majority (above six in ten) want Congress to phase out the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans, agree to President Obama's five-year spending freeze, and means-test Medicare and Social Security benefits for wealthy retirees. By the same percentage, the public is not in favor of cutting Medicaid or heating assistance to the poor.

You can see somewhat of a trend developing, when viewed this way, can't you?

The next tier of choices had less support from the public, but still over 55 percent -- a pretty comfortable majority, in other words. This level of support was seen for cutting nuclear power plant subsidies and raising the retirement age for Social Security -- and against cutting college student loans and Head Start programs for kids.

All the other choices on the list fell somewhere between 55 percent support and 44 percent support -- items where the public is pretty close to being truly split on the issue, in other words.

But the most interesting thing about the list is how far down all the current Republican proposals rate with "The American People" (with the one big exception being getting rid of earmarks, which is often a tricky question -- most people are for cutting earmarks for all the other districts and states, but most people are also in favor of such for their state or district). To be fair, some of President Obama's proposals don't rate very high on the list either (such as cutting home heating subsidies, for instance).

But Obama's decision to place one big issue squarely in the middle of the 2012 campaign is looking smarter and smarter -- taxing the richest Americans. This was seen as risky when he made the deal last December to continue the Bush tax cuts for two years, since they'll expire right after the 2012 election. Meaning it'll be a major issue during the campaign. But, from the evidence (and depending on the wording), Obama has from 68 to 81 percent of the public on his side in this upcoming fight.

Cutting government spending is one of those things that sounds good in the abstract, but becomes a lot more personal to the voter when the cuts are outlined in detail ("Hey, wait a minute -- I didn't mean you should cut that!"). For the next few months, Republicans are about to find this out. They may be able to rally public support for some of their ideas which are particularly odious to Democrats (check out how high on that list cutting EPA funding is, for example), but the Republicans are also likely to push hard for some ideas which the public is already firmly against -- to their political peril (like cutting education funding, for example).

But Democrats should be fighting this fight just as hard as the Republicans. And the easiest way to do so is to refute Republicans whenever they utter the phrase "The American People" in front of any of their budget-slashing agenda. Democratic officeholders should print out a copy of this poll, and have it at the ready whenever appearing with a Republican in the media. After hearing a Republican say "The American People are firmly behind our budget cuts," all that a Democrat would have to do is respond: "Actually, that is just not true. According to polling, the highest priority the, quote, American People, unquote, have when it comes to solving our budget problems is to slap a surtax on millionaires. Over eighty percent of people ranked it the most popular choice in a poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal, not exactly a bastion of Liberalism. The American People, by large majorities, do not want to see us cut education funding, and they do not want to see us slash Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. They would much rather we raise taxes on the rich. Those are the facts of what the American People want, not partisan spin."

[Caveats: First, one poll is not definitive. However, most public polling simply does not delve so deeply into the subject matter, meaning we don't have a whole lot of other polling to compare this poll to. This may be rectified, as the issue heats up in the public sphere and other polling companies start asking similar questions. The list of cuts offered in this poll is also nowhere near complete -- for example, no mention of adjusting or removing the cap on Social Security payroll taxes, which usually polls pretty high when adequately explained. There are plenty of government programs not even mentioned -- like the War on Drugs, the Border Patrol, or "abstinence education," to name but three which might have been interesting to see asked. The poll also gave no information on the relative size of the savings each program would have -- meaning cutting the Pentagon's budget was given equal weight with cutting Planned Parenthood's (which is not even close to being equal). The list of responses was given as answers to two slightly-differently-worded questions (again, see the full poll data, pages 16 and 17), which necessitated slight rewording of the answers in my article above (mostly adding the word "cutting" for clarity). The different wording of the two questions may have introduced some statistical uncertainty in the answers. Also, the full list was not presented to each poll respondent, as only half the list was read (for each of the two questions) to each person, which again could introduce anomalies in the resulting data. I have combined the categories to present the data in an easier-to-read fashion -- all the original answers were given on a scale of "totally acceptable / mostly acceptable / mostly unacceptable / totally unacceptable / don't know" (again, see the full data if you want to see how the numbers break down). But, having said all of that, this was still an interesting and instructive poll, due to how deeply they examined the question of what the public would like to see done to fix the budget deficit. Most polls simply have never asked these questions to the public before, which is why I thought the data deserved highlighting, and deserved more attention from the media than this poll has been getting. It also would work wonders for Democrats who are getting sick and tired of hearing Republicans repeat their "The American People" mantra.]

7 Comments on “What "The American People" Really Want”

[1]

dsws wrote:

By an overwhelming majority -- over eight in ten people think the best idea to cut our deficits is to slap higher taxes on millionaires.

Just because there's more agreement that taxing millionaires is one of the things to do, it doesn't follow that anyone thinks it's the best idea. I'm strongly in favor of taxing millionaires, as I think I've made a abundantly clear in other comments here and on HuffPo. But the very best idea is to come up with efficient cures for a handful of common high-maintenance chronic diseases.

The same three-fourths think it would be a bad idea to cut Social Security

Yeah, but they were for it before they were against it. "Cut Social Security" means raise the retirement age gradually, and similar changes.

But Obama's decision to place one big issue squarely in the middle of the 2012 campaign is looking smarter and smarter -- taxing the richest Americans. This was seen as risky when he made the deal last December to continue the Bush tax cuts for two years, since they'll expire right after the 2012 election. Meaning it'll be a major issue during the campaign. But, from the evidence (and depending on the wording), Obama has from 68 to 81 percent of the public on his side in this upcoming fight.

Didn't I tell you ... I'm pretty sure I told everyone that Obama/Biden/Geithner were more than a few steps ahead of the rest of us on this one! Well, OK ... but, I realized this not too long after the legislation passed ... I think. Well, I know it now! In any event, I'm so looking forward to that fight. :)

Oh, by the way ... guess what the Huffington Post just published a little while ago ...

Hey Michale ... I posted this first over on Chris' HuffPo page, but thought I'd repost here for you because I thought it was kinda funny:

A unionized public employee, a member of the Tea Party, and a CEO are sitting at a table. In the middle of the table there is a plate with a dozen cookies on it. The CEO reaches across and takes 11 cookies, looks at the Tea Partier and says, "look out for that union guy, he wants a piece of your cookie."

Ok ... I said "kinda funny" :)

I recently spoke w/ some friends of mine who I found out were Tea Party members and I mentioned a flat tax. Like you, they seemed in favor of the idea as well. They also, like you mentioned, are upset w/ the direction the newly elected officials have taken.

It also seemed to surprise them that I didn't really care if they had an entire basement full of guns or not - not that I'm a gun supporter, its just the economy is much higher up on my priority list :)

Our discussions here on CW.com have helped me realize that we have a lot more in common than I ever would have thought. Especially economically. So sincerely, thank you!

-David

p.s. And yeah ... I know we still have our differences so don't be expecting to hear these words again anytime soon :)!

A unionized public employee, a member of the Tea Party, and a CEO are sitting at a table. In the middle of the table there is a plate with a dozen cookies on it. The CEO reaches across and takes 11 cookies, looks at the Tea Partier and says, "look out for that union guy, he wants a piece of your cookie."

Oh, don't short yourself. That was DAMN funny!! :D

I ran across this opinion article and it explained the problem quite nicely..

How A Family Runs A Budget

First you get comfortable around the kitchen table. Second you get a piece of paper and you write down your expenses. Then you write down your revenue. Next you subtract your expenses from your revenue.

If your expenses are more than your revenue you have to cut expenses. If your revenue is more than your expenses you take the money left over and pay down debt or put money away for future expenses like your kid’s education.

How Congress Balances A Budget

First they can’t agree whether the table should be round or square. After months of deliberation they agree the table will be oval.

Second they argue what the definition of expenses is. Democrats want to call them targeted investments and Republicans want to call them reckless spending.

They finally agree to disagree on this and move on to revenue. But they can’t agree on what to do about revenue. Democrats call for revenue enhancements which Republicans decry as tax increases.

Finally after wasting a year arguing they pass a continuing resolution, or C.R., and Congress adjourns.

That sums things up perfectly. Politicians are more concerned about KEEPING their job than they are about DOING their job.

I think CW is dead on when he says that ALL politicians should h ave some kind of penalty in place if they fail to do their jobs. Sure, that's what elections are for, you will say. But we need something punitive and immediate that can't be spun a year or so later..