The EIU view

The country's president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, will use his strict control of the security services to maintain domestic political stability over 2019-23. However, his regime's ability to placate the country's elite will be limited by fiscal pressures, while the downside risk from mass public unrest over economic mismanagement will remain ever-present. We expect real GDP to contract in 2019-23 due to declining oil output, and the current-account deficit to narrow.

Political prisoners released
This is the second such release of political prisoners in four months and is not expected to be accompanied by any meaningful steps at political or economic liberalisation.

Unfunded programme approved by the IMF
The Fund has approved a staff monitored programme. With policy adjustments already under way, this is a prologue to funding from the organisation over the coming years.