And tolerance for marijuana seems to be growing: four states have legalized it outright, 25 broadly allow it for medical purposes and a number of cities, including many in Florida, have decriminalized its possession in small amounts.

But, as backers of the proposed Amendment 2 learned from their narrow defeat of a similar measure in 2014, public opinion won’t necessarily translate into a win. Turnout, particularly among the state’s younger voters, will likely be key.

“Proponents are banking on two things: First of all, some of the concerns have been address by rewording the amendment; and secondly, there will be a higher turnout among millennials,” said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political science professor. “They just presume younger people are going to vote for it. They presumed that last time, and it didn’t pass.”

MacManus said Amendment 2 could benefit from the fact that presidential elections tend to draw more voters to the polls.

Amendment 2 would allow patients with illnesses of the “same kind or class as or comparable to” diseases like cancer, HIV, post-traumatic stress disorder, Parkinson’s disease and epilepsy to obtain marijuana from state-approved dispensaries.

Florida law currently allows two types of patients to use smokeless cannabis products, such as oils and salves: those suffering from seizures and other illnesses that respond to non-euphoric strains of marijuana, such as “Charlotte’s Web,” and patients with terminal diseases who might benefit from full-strength marijuana.

Passage of Amendment 2 would potentially give 450,000 Floridians access to the drug, according to one state estimate.

John Morgan, the Orlando-based attorney bankrolling Florida’s legalization effort, said growing acceptance of medical marijuana makes him cautiously optimistic this year. Just under 58 percent of Florida voters voted ‘yes’ on Amendment 2 in 2014.

“The only issue the presidential candidates agree on this year is that medical marijuana should be legal. If that doesn’t say something about the times we’re in and the tipping point moment we’re having in Florida, nothing else does,” Morgan said. He noted that two dozen states have already done so. “The world didn’t end, people got better and it was actually good for economies.”

Opponents of the amendment argue that it would lead to “de facto legalization” of marijuana and result in the same kind of prescribing abuses that led to the state’s pill mill crisis.

The "No on 2" group has repeatedly pointed to some colorful examples of pot shops in California, which legalized medical marijuana 20 years ago, to claim dispensaries and related “seedy elements” will proliferate throughout the state if Amendment 2 passes.

They note that some public opinion surveys also showed strong support for medical marijuana in 2014. (Note: One poll taken shortly before the vote two years ago put support at 48 percent).

“We feel that, as it was in 2014, once voters understand the issue and understand what Amendment 2 is and what it isn’t, they’ll vote no,” said Christina Johnson, spokeswoman for the group.

Financial backing for Amendment 2

The pro-Amendment 2 group, People United for Medical Marijuana, has raised more than $5.5 million in political donations for the 2016 effort.

More than $2.7 million of that has come from Morgan, who spent more than $4 million backing medical marijuana in 2014.

Morgan said this will be his last attempt to get medical marijuana legalized, regardless of the outcome on Nov. 8. He also said he would play no role in any future attempts to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida.

And he says his family will not get into the medical marijuana business in any fashion, should the amendment pass.

“I have no financial interest, and I have no plans to have a financial interest,” he said. “I have been approached – I can’t tell you how many people have approached me – but it’s not a business I want to be in.”

Other large donors include The New Approach PAC, led by Washington attorney Graham Boyd ($1 million); Barbara Stiefel, a Coral Gables retiree and Democratic Party donor ($400,000); the Florida Democratic Party ($250,000); and Drug Policy Action, a group backing marijuana legalization throughout the country ($110,000).

Much of the group’s advertising has featured physicians and patients talking about the medical benefits and relative safety of marijuana compared to opioid painkillers and other pharmaceuticals.

Morgan himself is featured in some. He has said that marijuana helped ease the symptoms of his father’s cancer treatments. Morgan’s brother, Tim, also used marijuana during his own bout with cancer and has been a visible face of the pro-Amendment 2 cause.

Less financing for opposition

Drug Free Florida, the political group opposing the amendment has raised just over $3.4 million this year.

Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson kicked in $1.5 million of that, making him that effort’s largest single donor. He spent $5.5 million in 2014 to help defeat Florida’s first legalization try.

Adelson, whose wife helped found drug-treatment centers, has similarly spent millions in other states this and previous year to block marijuana legalization. His representatives did not respond to interview requests.

Mel Sembler, a prominent St. Petersburg real estate developer, GOP fundraiser and a U.S. ambassador during two Republican administrations, has given $1 million.

Mailer sent out by the Drug Free Florida Committee(Photo: file)

Sembler, who co-founded the controversial (and now defunct) anti-drug program STRAIGHT in 1976, also declined to comment for this story.

The Carol Jenkins Barnett Family Trust gave $800,000 this year and $540,000 to defeat medical marijuana in 2014.

Jenkins is the daughter of Publix Super Markets founder George Jenkins. Publix’s media relations department sent a statement on Jenkins’ behalf to The News-Press.

It’s the same one the company used this summer after marijuana advocates protested outside its corporate offices.

“I am not opposed to medical marijuana. But I am very concerned about medical marijuana passing through a constitutional amendment,” it read, in part. “Constitutional amendments cannot be easily changed when unforeseen problems are detected.”

“No on 2” advertising, which the group has used in all of the state’s media markets, has focused on California’s legalization and warns that “Kid-friendly pot” in the form of cannabis-laced foods and candies will soon come to Florida.

Changing attitudes

Law enforcement, medical, and some business groups remain opposed to a constitutional amendment legalizing medical marijuana. But the type of full-throated campaign these groups waged against it in 2014 has not materialized.

The Florida Sheriff's Association opposed Amendment 2 in 2014, based in part on its concerns about the "dangers" of marijuana use.

This time around, the association's opposition is largely based on the fact that legalization would come through a constitutional amendment, said Orange County Sheriff and association President Jerry L. Demings.

"The sheriffs were not unanimous in opposing the entire concept of smokable marijuana for medical purposes, but it wasn't unanimous in support of that either," Demings said. "What the association decided to do was to leave it to the individual sheriffs in their respective counties to take a position, based upon his or her own opinion about it."

The News-Press has endorsed Amendment 2 this year, though it opposed a similar plan in 2014. The Naples Daily News, which is owned by News-Press parent company, Gannett, has come out against the plan again.

Whatever happens, this could be a big year for marijuana legalization. Voters in five states – Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada – will consider legalizing marijuana for adult recreational use next month.

And, in addition to Florida, Arkansas, Montana and North Dakota will vote on plans to allow people with certain medical conditions to use marijuana medicinally. Other states are considering similar measures.

Marijuana remains illegal under federal law, but the Obama administration and Congress have allowed states to experiment with legalization. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have said they support the use of medical marijuana.

“I think many of us saw Colorado and Washington winning (in 2012) as a bit of a tipping point on this issue,” said Ethan Nadelmann, the executive director of the pro-legalization Drug Policy Alliance. “Then when Oregon, plus Alaska, won in a non-presidential election year that showed effectively that Colorado and Washington were no flukes, that this seemed to be a trend.”