The shutdown and related chaos has pushed Donald Trump’s approval rating to new lows, with even Rasmussen, his polling happy place, pegging him at 43 percent. But the White House believes this is only the beginning of his troubles. In recent days, according to a source briefed on the conversation, Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani has told people privately that he expects Robert Mueller to deliver the first installment of his report, dealing with obstruction of justice, “within the month.” “Rudy thinks it will be soon," said a person who’s spoken with Giuliani. “It’s only a matter of time.”

Giuliani, of course, has been wrong before about Mueller’s timing. In May, Giuliani claimed that the special counsel could be wrapped up by September 1. (Giuliani’s prior claim was seen as a strategy to pressure Mueller into completing his report before the 2018 midterms.) This time, however, Giuliani’s forecast about Mueller’s next move seems to be driven by his fears that the report will be “horrific” for Trump. According to a source, Giuliani recently told a close associate that he’s “very worried about the report.” The mounting pressure has also strained Giuliani’s relationship with Trump. “Rudy hates the job,” a Republican briefed on Giuliani’s thinking told me. “Trump is very hard to deal with.” (Giuliani didn’t return a call seeking comment.)

Complicating matters is the shutdown, which has consumed Trump’s attention. A prominent Republican close to the White House told me that Trump is essentially winging it when it comes to shutdown talks with Democrats. “People are looking around asking, ‘What’s the play call?’” the Republican said. “He’s calling plays from the line of scrimmage.” “This was not played well. He’s in a pickle now, and I don’t see a way out.”

Axios reported that Trump lashed out at his acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, during a January 4 negotiating session with congressional leaders in the Situation Room. “You just fucked it all up, Mick,” Trump reportedly said. “Trump puts everyone in a box, and then blames them for putting him there,” a former West Wing official told me. A fourth Republican close to the White House said Trump is thinking of continuing the shutdown through the State of the Union, so he can use the prime-time speech to argue for his wall. But Nancy Pelosi has now asked him to postpone his speech, or deliver it in writing, because of shutdown-related security concerns.

Gabriel ShermanGabriel Sherman is a special correspondent for Vanity Fair. Most recently, Sherman served as national-affairs editor at New York magazine, and he is a regular contributor to NBC News and MSNBC.