House GOP's fiscal split looms large for President Obama

The fiscal cliff deal that raised taxes on the wealthy split the House GOP Conference between red-state and blue-state Republicans and delivered a big win for President Barack Obama on his signature campaign issue.

But it left unanswered a question with big implications for Obama’s second term: If the president could divide and conquer House Republicans on tax increases, can he do it again on the debt ceiling, guns and immigration?

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Obama: No ‘ransom’ for raising ceiling

GOP talks default: POLITICO's Behind the Curtain

Of the 85 Republicans who backed the tax-hike bill — and provided it with the margin it needed to pass — 70 hail from states that the president won in November. In contrast, 91 of the 151 Republicans who voted against the deal were from states that went for Mitt Romney.

The rift rankled conservatives who see the House GOP going adrift — and raised hopes among Democrats who see a potential opening to exploit going forward.

“At some point, you have to draw a line in the sand,” Georgia Rep. Tom Price, a member of the conservative Republican Study Committee who opposed the bill, said in a radio interview last week. “And we have been unwilling as a conference to do that.”

But for the fault line to resurface on other votes, House Speaker John Boehner would have to allow it. The fiscal cliff put the Ohio Republican under enormous pressure to bring to the floor legislation that almost two-thirds of his members opposed.

Whether that kind of pressure can be reproduced in the future — indeed, whether Boehner would be willing to put his speakership on the line — is far from certain. The answer will go a long way in determining what Obama is able to accomplish in his second term.

The coming showdown over the debt ceiling and sequestration seems like a reasonable candidate to cause GOP dissension again. House Republicans all say they want to take a hard line with Obama on spending; whether they keep a united front on potentially shutting down the government or forcing a default on the nation’s debt is another matter. The political consequences could be severe in either case if House Republicans are seen as the culprits.

Immigration and gun control may also come to a head in the House at some point as the GOP reckons with its miserable performance among Latinos in November and growing calls for the government to do something about a string of mass shootings.

Democrats argue that the red state-blue state House GOP split that became apparent in the fiscal cliff vote provides them with an opening on other politically dicey legislation. A senior House Democratic aide told POLITICO that the division within House GOP ranks isn’t likely to vanish after one vote.

“Right now, all Republicans are seeing is red — but let’s hope that purple gains favor with Speaker Boehner and his conference,” the aide said.

For the House GOP, the red state-blue state split was a defining theme of the New Year’s Day vote. The Republican delegations that were most supportive of the bill — which allowed the Bush tax cuts to expire for households making more than $450,000 — came from states like Pennsylvania, New York and Ohio, all of which broke for the president. In many cases, those Republicans represent districts that are relatively moderate or even include a plurality of Democratic voters — making them more prone to compromise.