George Bush inspires high hopes, and a few fears

LATIN America often remains an afterthought of American foreign policy. So it seems once again. The senior foreign-policy posts in George Bush's administration have gone to officials steeped in East-West relations and the Middle East. It will be days, if not weeks, before the second-tier officials who handle Latin America are appointed. And in contrast to the liberal internationalism of Bill Clinton, some Republicans are crude bashers of drugs, migrants and softness towards Cuba.

Odd, then, that Latin American governments view a Bush administration with more hope and enthusiasm than their counterparts elsewhere. The surname helps. Relations with Latin America were a big success during the presidency of George Bush senior: talks over the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) were begun; the idea was launched of a Free-Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA); and Central America moved from war towards peace.

Then there is Mr Bush himself. A novice in world affairs, he has a Mexican sister-in-law and made three visits across the border as governor of Texas. Unlike Al Gore, Mr Bush devoted a campaign speech to Latin America—from which the first sentence of this article is a direct quote.

The first test of Mr Bush's promise that Latin America will not be an afterthought will come on trade. In April, he is due to meet the region's leaders at the third Summit of the Americas, to be held in Quebec. Latin American governments will be disappointed if by then he has not sent a bill to Congress seeking the “fast-track” authority required to clinch trade deals. This was denied to Mr Clinton, but is essential if the FTAA is to start by 2005, as planned.

On paper, Mr Bush has a good chance of getting fast-track. But there are other reasons to worry. Brazilian officials were dismayed when Don Evans, Mr Bush's choice for secretary of commerce, gave a swift promise to defend steel makers against “unfair competition”. Brazil fumes (and rightly so) over anti-dumping and other punitive duties on its most competitive exports, including shoes and orange juice as well as steel. It is alarmed that the United States Trade Representative, who handles trade negotiations, might be stripped of cabinet rank and subordinated to the Commerce Department—a bastion of protectionism.

Swift decisions will also be needed on Colombia. Mr Clinton organised $1.3 billion of mainly military aid for Plan Colombia, a scheme aimed at fighting drug traffickers and at strong-arming the left-wing guerrillas who protect them into making peace. Many Latin Americans, and Europeans, see this as likely to exacerbate Colombia's conflicts, while driving the drug business into neighbouring countries and doing little to tackle murderous right-wing paramilitaries.

Mr Bush backs Plan Colombia, and met President Andres Pastrana in October. Some Latin Americans fear an escalation, in which American troops could become involved in counter-insurgency or drug-bashing. But Colin Powell, the new secretary of state, is well-known for his reluctance to commit American forces to foreign conflicts. Michael Shifter of Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think-tank, argues that General Powell has an opportunity, and may have the inclination, to make American policy less beholden to the anti-drug lobby, and instead to recognise the complexity of Colombia's problems by helping it both to try to find peace and to make its armed forces and police stronger and more professional.

American relations with Mexico, though much warmer than a generation ago, are still prickly. Under Mr Bush and Mexico's new president, Vicente Fox, they could become less so. Both are former businessmen. And Mexican politicians are now prepared to recognise that such issues as migration and drug-trafficking are problems for their own country, as well as for the United States, according to Rafael Fernandez de Castro, the editor of Foreign Affairs en Español, a Mexican journal.

Mr Fox hopes that the United States will agree to better treatment of the 300,000 or more Mexicans, legal and illegal, who go north each year. But he also wants the migrants to keep their ties with home. He plans incentives for their families to invest remittances (some $7 billion last year) in setting up businesses in Mexico, instead of buying cars and washing machines.

Likewise, the drug trade brings violence and corruption, and rising drug-taking, south of the border. Mexico, like the rest of Latin America, despises the “certification” process, under which the American Congress stands in hypocritical judgment on the efforts of others to fight drugs. But Mr Fox also hopes for more American co-ordination on fighting drugs, and on cleaning up environmental damage along the border.

Elsewhere in the region, Haiti badly needs aid, but America and other donors suspended it after questionable elections last year. Mr Bush is unlikely to restore it, unless Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the incoming president, embarks on reform.

Mr Bush may also be less tolerant of the anti-American gestures of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, though he would be wise not to be provoked by them. And he has talked tough on Cuba. But policy towards Cuba, and especially the American embargo against the island, nowadays lies mainly in Congress's hands. Last year legislators eased restrictions on sales of food and medicine and on travel to Cuba. There is growing bipartisan support for lifting them altogether. That would be welcomed in Latin America, though not perhaps by Fidel Castro, who could no longer pose as the defender of his country against yanqui aggression.