India General Elections 2009

Editorial Note
by Enrica Garzilli

A major event shaped the politcs and the regional security of Asia in
the latest two months: the general elections to the 15th Lok Sabha, the
House of the People of the Parliament of India, which were held in five
phases between April 16 and May 13, 2009 and saw 714 million voters.
The results of the elections were announced three days later: the
Indian National Congress (headed by Sonia Gandhi), chief member of the
ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition (UPA), won 206 seats and
formed the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh; the Bharatiya Janata Party (headed by Rajnath Singh), chief
member of the National Democratic Alliance led by Lal Krishna Advani,
won 116 seats and is currently in the opposition; Left Front and Left
Democratic Front won 24 seats; and Bahujan Samaj Party won 21 seats
(here the complete list
of the winner parties). The new government is led by the UPA, which got 262
seats; the Janata Dal (Secular), the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Bahujan
Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party gave unconditional support to the
government; Nagaland Peoples Front, Sikkim Democratic Front, and
Bodaland Peoples Front, followed by other parties, joined. Thanks to
the fact that the UPA is short of just 10 seats for a majority, and to
the external support of most parties, this looks like a very stable
government. An analysis of the elections “Indian Elections 2009: A Vote for Stability” is offerred by Domenico Amirante (Seconda
Università degli Studi di Napoli, Naples, Italy).

In this issue you can read the paper “Women Empowerment and Activism in the
Indian state of Uttarakhand”, by Annpurna Nautiyal (H.N.B. Garhwal
University, Uttarakhand, India), which offers and overview of the
issues encountered by the women of the new state of Uttarakhand, as far
as political participation and access to power are concerned. The
review paper by Carol Corrine Davis (Franklin & Marshall College, USA)
explores the world of Sangita Rayamajhi’s All Mothers Are Working
Mothers, the first play to be published by a female Nepali playwright.
Enjoy!

Indian Elections 2009: A Vote for Stability

by Domenico Amirante

India’s Parliamentary elections of April - May 2009 to the 15th Lok
Sabha, held in the difficult context of the aftermath of the world
economic crisis and the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack, represented an
important test for governance. The message of the voters to the
political class facing the challenges of the 2009-2014 legislature is
very clear: it is a demand for political and institutional stability.
The results of the elections awarded the ruling government, the United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) lead by the Congress Party, far beyond the
poll forecasts and the more optimistic expectations of the majority
parties. More interestingly, this electoral round has confirmed the
late trend of Indian politics, sanctioning its return to stability
after the difficult transition from the ephemeral coalitions of the
'90s.

The main feature confirmed by the 2009 vote is the establishment of
a bipolar party system of the biggest parties: the Indian National
Congress and the Hindu nationalist BJP, its main opponent. None of the
two is able to rule the country alone and needs a number of small and
medium parties to form government coalitions. In this way, smaller
parties are enjoying power and influence, which are somehow
disproportionate to their electoral results. Among those parties, the
more influential are the regional or state parties, representing
regional or ethno-linguistic groups, and often ruling a member state.
More recently the Indian political scenario has witnessed the rise,
mostly in the north of the country, of parties representing the lower
layers of society, the lower castes or the so-called outcastes. The
most important among these parties is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP),
ruling today in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state with over
170 million inhabitants. The BSP leader, Mrs. Kumari Mayawaty, also
known as “the Queen of the Dalits”, is gaining increasing national
support.

In the last decade the ruling coalitions, the National Democratic
Alliance (NDA) headed by the BJP (1999-2004), and the Congress-lead UPA
(2004-2009), despite the high number of parties involved had enough
strength and discipline to last for the entire legislature. The
confirmation of this bipolar scheme was not to be taken for granted at
the eve of 2009 elections. The previous two years were difficult for
the UPA and the Congress because, in spite of the electoral promises,
the economic policy of the government did not improve the standard of
living of the lower classes, particularly in rural areas. As a result,
the coalition suffered a significant loss of consensus.

In the meanwhile, the BJP obtained relevant victories in important
state elections such as the triumph of Narendra Modi, reconfirmed in
the rich state of Gujarat, and the significant electoral growth of the
party in Karnataka, a fast developing state.

Nevertheless, the real political threat for the majority was considered
the rise of the outcastes’ party, the BSP. In fact, after her large
victory in 2007 Uttar Pradesh elections, with the absolute majority of
seats in the state Assembly, Mayawaty declared her intentions to run
for Prime Minister of India, creating a Third Front able to defeat both
the Congress, and the BJP. In addition, in 2008, after the Mumbai
terrorist attack, the government showed a high degree of inefficiency
in managing the crisis, losing legitimacy at national and international
level.

Quite surprisingly, in December 2008 the negative trend for the
Congress and its allies changed direction, obtaining an unexpected
success in several state elections. The Congress won in Rajastan and
Delhi Capital Territory, and got good results in Jammu & Kashmir, the
traditional stronghold of Islamic separatism, being able to form a
governing coalition together with other moderate parties. This
electoral results showed a new support to the secular government, as a
reaction to communalism and fundamentalism, both from the Hindu and the
Islamic side.

The electoral campaign leading to the 2009 vote did not present
relevant issues. The Congress program was centered, like in 2004, on
the needs of the “common man”. The BJP, trying to divert the focus from
communalism, wore the suit of efficiency with the slogan “able leader
for decisive government”. The new coalition Third Front (including more
than ten different political parties) did not show sufficient strength
and unity to convince the voters, and could not even indicate a
candidate for the position of Prime Minister, losing in this way the
“Mayawaty effect”. The opinion polls had predicted a dark scenario: the
two coalitions very close to each other and very far from the 272 seat
majority needed to form the government
(i.e., according to Star-Nielsen,
203 to UPA and 191 to NDA). The Third Front was credited a decisive role, with
more than 100 seats.

Like in 2004, the actual results have completely contradicted the
opinion polls. The UPA with its 262 seats obtained over 100 seats more
than the NDA (157) while the Congress, with 206 MPs, nearly doubled the
BJP (116). The Third Front, with 80 seats only, had no role to play in
making the government. A few days after the vote the UPA reconfirmed
Manmoham Singh as the PM, counting on the support of smaller parties
such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Laloo Prasad. The Third Front
immediately split up, and the BSP announced its external support to the
UPA government. The BJP faced a severe setback, even though it kept its
strongholds in rich and populous states such as Gujarat and Karnataka.
What is clear is that religious fundamentalism and communalism, while
still attracting many votes, are not sufficient elements to rule the
Union in a complex country like India.

The forthcoming five years are apparently easier for the Manmohan team,
with the Congress leading a coalition stronger and more disciplinated
than in the previous legislature. However, the problems to solve are
not easier. The lower layers of Indian society, confirming their
support to UPA, are now expecting a real improvement of their living
standard (as promised by the policy of inclusion in the electoral
campaign) while many financial efforts have to be made to overcome the
effects of the world crisis on the growth of indian economy. The threat
of terrorism requires on one side zero-tolerance and more efficiency
towards extremism, on the other, diplomacy and dialogue, according to
the words of the Union President Pratibha Patil, “with all groups that
abjure violence in Northest, Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of the
country”.

For Western observers the Indian 2009 general elections offer some
interesting lesson: in a highly multicultural country like India, with
its 23 official languages and more than 6 religions, the voters have
chosen a coalition indicating as its main values pluralism and
secularism. The terrorist attacks to Mumbai, aimed to discredit Indian
secularism and democracy and to destabilize the whole geopolitical
area, provoked the opposite effect: more than 400 million votes, a
percentage of 58,5% voters, who confirmed to trust the power of vote
(compared with the meager 43% of the European Parliamentary election of
June 2009) and reconfirmed the leading party.

A last remark concerns the role of women in apex positions in Indian
politics: Pratibha Patil is the President of the Union since 2007,
Meira Kumar has freshly been appointed as the Speaker of the Lok Sabha
while Sonia Gandhi, even though in 2004 declined the leadership of the
Congress Parliamentary Party in the Lok Sabha and rejected the post as
Prime Minister, is still the President of the ruling party, and plays a
pivotal role in the government action. Indian politics today speaks
feminine.