A 28-year first: Florida's prison population shrinks

Published: Thursday, August 2, 2012 at 8:52 p.m.

Last Modified: Thursday, August 2, 2012 at 10:20 p.m.

TALLAHASSEE — The surest sign of Florida's plummeting crime rate: For the first time in 28 years, the Sunshine State will have a smaller prison population than the previous year.

The lower number of prisoners and the drop in the crime rate are having a ripple effect throughout the criminal justice system that ultimately should curb rising costs in the $2 billion-a-year prison system.

Some of that was reflected in the new state budget that Gov. Rick Scott said contained about $100 million in "savings," with $75 million related to closing of operations no longer needed because of less crime and fewer prisoners. Part of that money will be redirected into prevention and rehabilitation programs.

Florida's prison population is now projected to dip below 100,000 by this fall and stay there for the next five years, according to a new criminal justice estimate.

The numbers stood at 100,527 inmates on June 30, compared with 102,319 inmates at the end of June 2011, Florida Department of Corrections data show.

It is expected to average just above 99,000 inmates for the next five years.

The declining prison population is a sign of a dramatic decrease in Florida's overall crime rate, which peaked in 1991, but has declined by more than half since then, according to analysis by Florida State University's College of Criminology and Criminal Justice.

"The primary driver of the drop in crime in Florida over the last 20 years seemed to be the increasing incarceration rate," said Bill Bales, head of FSU's Center for Criminology and Public Policy Research. "It doesn't seem to be economics. It's not the level of police presence. It's not demographics.

"Incarceration was pretty much the only significant variable that we found," said Bales, who looked at the declining crime rate since 1991 as well as Florida's incarceration numbers as part of a 2012 study with fellow criminologist Alex Piquero of the University of Texas at Dallas.

The major crimes index in 2011 was at its lowest point since 1984; the crime rate, the lowest since 1971.

Violent crimes, including murder, sexual assaults and robbery, decreased by 3.7 percent in 2011, with overall arrests dropping by 6.6 percent, according to the Criminal Justice Estimating Conference, which met late last month.

Besides the drop in the crime rate, the shrinking prison population is the result of decreases in new prison admissions and a decrease in the number of inmates that counties are sending to the state system with one-year-and-one-day sentences.

Prison admissions, which peaked in recent years at 42,279 in 2008 — coinciding with the darkest days of the recession — have been on the decline.

The annual drop has averaged more than 5 percent a year since then. The 2011-12 fiscal year admissions dropped by 8.8 percent to 32,497.

One of the big drivers in that decline was new admissions for drug offenses, a category that dropped by 14.5 percent.

During the past 20 years, the data that Bales examined show that Florida's prison population exploded, rising from 42,733 inmates in 1990 to a peak of 102,319 in June 2011.

But Bales also noted that Florida was part of a national trend in declining crime rates and there is a lack of certainty in what is actually driving the trends.

"The whole issue of trying to explain the causal dynamics of changing crime rates is still somewhat of a mystery in our field," he said.

While the crime rate has dramatically dropped since 1991, it only edged down 0.8 percent in 2011, Bales noted.

If the new prison population estimate — which essentially projects little growth in the Florida prison system over the next five years — holds, it could present a test of whether incarceration rates impact crime rates, he said.

"We'll know in another two or three years," said Bales, who spent 16 years working for the state Department of Corrections. "Let's see what happens with crime. If it goes up each year, then that's going to be pretty compelling evidence that incarceration rates do seem to influence the crime rate. If it doesn't, then it's something else."

<p>TALLAHASSEE — The surest sign of Florida's plummeting crime rate: For the first time in 28 years, the Sunshine State will have a smaller prison population than the previous year.</p><p>The lower number of prisoners and the drop in the crime rate are having a ripple effect throughout the criminal justice system that ultimately should curb rising costs in the $2 billion-a-year prison system.</p><p>Some of that was reflected in the new state budget that Gov. Rick Scott said contained about $100 million in "savings," with $75 million related to closing of operations no longer needed because of less crime and fewer prisoners. Part of that money will be redirected into prevention and rehabilitation programs.</p><p>Florida's prison population is now projected to dip below 100,000 by this fall and stay there for the next five years, according to a new criminal justice estimate.</p><p>The numbers stood at 100,527 inmates on June 30, compared with 102,319 inmates at the end of June 2011, Florida Department of Corrections data show.</p><p>It is expected to average just above 99,000 inmates for the next five years.</p><p>The declining prison population is a sign of a dramatic decrease in Florida's overall crime rate, which peaked in 1991, but has declined by more than half since then, according to analysis by Florida State University's College of Criminology and Criminal Justice.</p><p>"The primary driver of the drop in crime in Florida over the last 20 years seemed to be the increasing incarceration rate," said Bill Bales, head of FSU's Center for Criminology and Public Policy Research. "It doesn't seem to be economics. It's not the level of police presence. It's not demographics.</p><p>"Incarceration was pretty much the only significant variable that we found," said Bales, who looked at the declining crime rate since 1991 as well as Florida's incarceration numbers as part of a 2012 study with fellow criminologist Alex Piquero of the University of Texas at Dallas.</p><p>The major crimes index in 2011 was at its lowest point since 1984; the crime rate, the lowest since 1971.</p><p>Violent crimes, including murder, sexual assaults and robbery, decreased by 3.7 percent in 2011, with overall arrests dropping by 6.6 percent, according to the Criminal Justice Estimating Conference, which met late last month.</p><p>Besides the drop in the crime rate, the shrinking prison population is the result of decreases in new prison admissions and a decrease in the number of inmates that counties are sending to the state system with one-year-and-one-day sentences.</p><p>Prison admissions, which peaked in recent years at 42,279 in 2008 — coinciding with the darkest days of the recession — have been on the decline.</p><p>The annual drop has averaged more than 5 percent a year since then. The 2011-12 fiscal year admissions dropped by 8.8 percent to 32,497.</p><p>One of the big drivers in that decline was new admissions for drug offenses, a category that dropped by 14.5 percent.</p><p>Property crime admissions declined by 7.4 percent.</p><p>Florida's per-capita prison admissions dropped to 528 inmates per 100,000 Floridians, down from 541 the previous year.</p><p>During the past 20 years, the data that Bales examined show that Florida's prison population exploded, rising from 42,733 inmates in 1990 to a peak of 102,319 in June 2011.</p><p>But Bales also noted that Florida was part of a national trend in declining crime rates and there is a lack of certainty in what is actually driving the trends.</p><p>"The whole issue of trying to explain the causal dynamics of changing crime rates is still somewhat of a mystery in our field," he said.</p><p>While the crime rate has dramatically dropped since 1991, it only edged down 0.8 percent in 2011, Bales noted.</p><p>If the new prison population estimate — which essentially projects little growth in the Florida prison system over the next five years — holds, it could present a test of whether incarceration rates impact crime rates, he said.</p><p>"We'll know in another two or three years," said Bales, who spent 16 years working for the state Department of Corrections. "Let's see what happens with crime. If it goes up each year, then that's going to be pretty compelling evidence that incarceration rates do seem to influence the crime rate. If it doesn't, then it's something else."</p>