How do scientists in Parkfield,
California, try to predict earthquakes?

INTRODUCTION

Near Parkfield, California, there have been moderate-sized
earthquakes every 21-22 years. These have been recorded at least
since 1857. Scientists therefore expected a moderate-sized earthquake
in 1993, but it is yet to come.

Because of the consistent earthquake activity, scientists found
Parkfield an ideal place to try to predict earthquakes - or to try to
find precursors that would help predicting earthquakes in the future.
There have been lots of earthquake prediction experiments in
Parkfield over the last decades. None of the experiments has led to
long-term prediction of earthquakes, but some has found some small
precursors, that might be able to help in the future.

"An earthquake results from sudden slip on a geological fault.
Such fracture and failure problems are notoriously intractable." This
is one of the main reasons that "the leading seismological
authorities of each era have generally concluded that earthquake
prediction is not feasible." (Geller 1616). Of
the opposite opinion is Christopher Scholz, who writes: "There is no
doubt in my mind that many earthquakes are preceded by real
precursors, but their causative processes remain murky, mainly
because we lack good observations." (Scholz)

As seen scientists do not agree on the subject of whether or not
earthquakes can be predicted. This is the reason that many scientists
have done experiments near Parkfield - and other places.

Bolt is a professor at University of Sydney. His interests are
seismology and earthquake hazard reduction. This book is in general
about earthquakes and earthquake hazard reduction. "The true value of
the book comes with its up-to-date treatment of earthquake hazards
and prediction concepts, with a full section on the Parkfield
experiment." (Wright 174)

Heppenheimer, Thomas A. The Coming Quake; Science and Trembling
on the California Earthquake Frontier. New York: Times Books,
1988.

Thomas A. Heppenheimer, author of The Coming Quake; Science and
Trembling on the California Earthquake Frontier, is employed at
Center for Space Science in Fountain Valley, California. He has
written many books and articles on many areas of science. His main
point in The Coming Quake; Science and Trembling on the California
Earthquake Frontier is how scientists try to predict the time
place and size of future earthquakes. H.N. Pollack from Choice
writes: "Heppenheimer acquaints the reader with the techniques of
deciphering when major earthquakes have occurred along the San
Andreas [fault] in prehistoric times, in order to establish a
statistical understanding of earthquake recurrence intervals."
(Choice 966)

National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (US) Working
Group. Earthquake Research at Parkfield, California – 1993 and
Beyond; Report of the NEPEC Working Group to Evaluate the Parkfield
Earthquake Prediction Experiment. US Geological Survey Open-File
Report 93-622, 1993.

Vogt here writes about how earthquakes are predicted, located and
measured. This book "is distinguished by emphasizing scientific
instruments and methods to predict or control these phenomena
[earthquakes]" (Milton 58). Predicting Earthquakes is " a good
description of the development of quantitative observing techniques,
and clear discussion of our still maturing attempts to forecast such
events [earthquakes]" (Predicting earthquakes 1998)

These materials may be used for educational
purposes, but please inform and credit the author and cite the source
as: LSCI 105 Computerized Research. All commercial rights are
reserved. Send comments or suggestions to: Eric Brenner at
brenner@smcccd.cc.ca.us