February 16, 2011

Corker in some danger of being primaried

Raleigh, N.C. – It seems like the Tea Party is planning primary challenges to every Republican and his brother next year. Among them may be Tennessee Senator Bob Corker. But while Corker is hypothetically vulnerable on his right, two potential named opponents get blown out of the water at this early stage.

43% of the state’s GOP primary voters say they would support a generic “more conservative challenger” to Corker in next year’s primary. 38% stick with Corker. Except with the 45% plurality who say they are very conservative, Corker easily beats this unnamed foe, but the farthest right favor the conservative by a 66-24 margin.

This desire is probably less an indictment of Corker than a fervor for hard-line purity by the fringe of the base; they would favor anyone who is “more conservative” if they had a choice. In fact, Corker’s job approval rating is actually higher with conservatives than with moderates or the miniscule group who claim they are liberal. 23% do think Corker too liberal, but 55% say his ideology is “about right.” Compare that to South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham, with whom voters do have an ideological problem; 42% of his state’s Republicans see him as too liberal.

As such, Corker beats both real candidates matched up with him: Rep. Marsha Blackburn, 50-30, and country star Hank Williams, Jr., 66-13. Williams has mentioned a desire to run for the Senate in the past. Blackburn ties Corker at 39% with the rightmost voters, but he trounces her with everyone else, and beats Williams overwhelmingly across the board.

“There is some desire among Tennessee Republicans to replace Corker with someone further to the right,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the question becomes whether anyone viable will actually challenge Corker, and whether that challenge will be well funded.”

In the race for the White House, Mike Huckabee has a sound 31-17 lead over Sarah Palin, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich back at 11% apiece, Ron Paul with 10%, Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels with 3% each, and John Thune with 1%. The “third-place candidate” is someone else/undecided, with 14%.

PPP surveyed 400 usual Tennessee Republican primary voters from February 9th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q8 If the Republican primary for Senate next yearwas between Bob Corker and a moreconservative challenger, who would you votefor?Bob Corker...................................................... 38%More conservative challenger ......................... 43%Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 50%Man................................................................. 50%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 10%30 to 45........................................................... 30%46 to 65........................................................... 35%Older than 65.................................................. 25%

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Name is required to post a comment

Please enter a valid email address

Invalid URL

This weblog only allows comments from registered users. To comment, please enable JavaScript so you can sign in.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

Advertisement

HIRE PPP

Dean DebnamPublic Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"