Scenarios

Our approach was to collect as much data from a variety of vetted, widely-cited sources as possible, using our models to assess different potential pathways for global adoption.

Eighty of the solutions in this book already exist and are scaling to become competitive alternatives to now dominant, high-emitting technologies. They are economically viable, proven to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon dioxide, and have the potential to spread throughout the world.

Our approach was to collect as much data from a variety of vetted, widely-cited sources as possible, using our models to assess different potential pathways for global adoption. Since no individual organization, model, or researcher can claim to accurately know the future, or how every technology or practice will perform in every corner of the world, we gathered a wide range projections from multiple sources. This approach allowed us to generate reasonable, defensible guesses at how these solutions can grow and what their impacts could be.

Each solution is modeled based on a comparison between a reference case, assuming little change over the next thirty years, and three scenarios reflecting increasingly more accelerated global adoption.

Plausible Scenario: the case in which solutions on the Drawdown list are adopted at a realistically vigorous rate over the time period under investigation, adjusting for estimated economic and population growth.

Drawdown Scenario: the case in which the adoption of solutions is optimized to achieve drawdown by 2050.

Optimum Scenario: the case in which solutions achieve their maximum potential, fully replacing conventional technologies and practices within a limited, competitive market.

The data derived from models was then inputted into sector-level integration models to generate final results for all solutions within an in global system.