Thursday, January 27, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

It’s not a world-beating team, but the White Sox are my early pick for the AL Central, edging out the Tigers and a little above the Twins.

The team’s not headed for a 95-win season, but they are generally solid without a lot of major holes, though they could use another bullpen arm. It’s still anybody’s guess as to what Sale’s role will be, so I’m leaving him split for now (and likely will if it’s not very clear-cut at the start of the year). The team’s depth isn’t that great, but Kenny Williams is always aggressive about improving the team, whether it’s landing Peavy, picking up Ramirez’s money, or taking a risk and picking up Alexis Rios’s contract (a much better risk than picking up Vernon Wells). Not all of his moves work out, but the saying is Audaces fortuna iuvat, after all.

The team could improve their odds without the constant fascination with leftfielders that hit like mediocre centerfielders. Luckily for KW and The Ozzie, they’re in the Central division and not the East.

Adam Dunn was an inspired move for the White Sox - he came far cheaper than the other top hitters that aren’t pushing 40, he can DH, and the Cell is an excellent HR park without being a big hitters’ park overall. Signing McPherson could be sneaky useful from AAA if an emergency pops up. He could play the field, but it’s probably safer not to let him with an injury record nearly as poor and even longer than Eric Chavez.

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That is a lot of career HRs for Dunn, which is not all that surprising of course. I still don't think he'll be a HOF caliber ballplayer if/when he hits that many, but it sure would be fun to watch him hit them all.

Towards the end of last season, colin at SSS put out an article essentially saying that Jackson had accumulated enough innings with the White Sox to make meaningful interpretations about certain statistics (I think he cited some work Tango has done). I also seem to recall FanGraphs putting out a similar article, although I could be mistaken. Does ZiPS simply think Jackson's time with the Sox was an abberation? Or -- more likely -- is it simply weighing heavier his previous 550+ innings (last three years) of, well, slightly-above-league-average pitching?

Also nice to see that ZiPS finally likes Gavin Floyd. His projection from last season was for 200 innings of a 96 ERA+, and a K-to-BB barely above 2-to-1. This year represents a rather marked difference.

I think (hope?) Beckham beats that projection, but given his atrocious first half last year, that's probably not all that surprising.

Somewhat surprised to see how lukewarm ZiPS is on Alexei Ramirez's defense. My understanding was that he is now considered one of the top defensive shortstops in the AL. Is it because his pre-2010 defense was that bad, or is it something of a reaction to small sample sizes, due to his being moved around the diamond so much.

Also, sadly, if 15 is the line on Juan Pierre's caught stealings...give me the over, big time. Ozzie is going to keep giving him a permanent green light...and he's going to rack up the outs on the basepaths. The only thing that can suppress Pierre's CS is if he simply doesn't get on base very often...

ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs. Is that the same Dallas McPherson who last hit a homer in the majors in 2006? Career high of 8 in a season? Career total of 18?

Also nice to see that ZiPS finally likes Gavin Floyd. His projection from last season was for 200 innings of a 96 ERA+, and a K-to-BB barely above 2-to-1.

Still lukewarm on Buehrle, though. I think he and Edwin Jackson should both be better than those projections.

I think (hope?) Beckham beats that projection, but given his atrocious first half last year, that's probably not all that surprising.

Beckham was very good in the second half of 2010 (.310/.380/.497 after the All-Star Break), but I think that a .750 OPS is a fair projection for him, all things considered. I wouldn't be surprised if he was a lot better than that, though.

The projections on Carlos Quentin and Brent Morel seem optimistic to me. I'd be thrilled if either of them did that well. Otherwise, I can't find much to quibble with.

That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best. I think they'll be forced to turn Sale into a reliever.

ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs. Is that the same Dallas McPherson who last hit a homer in the majors in 2006? Career high of 8 in a season? Career total of 18?

Which is a bit like saying Neftali Feliz would be a poor starter because he has a career high win total of 4. McPherson's been injured and hasn't played much, but there's never been any question about his power and he's going to a better HR environment than he's ever had in the majors (and not particularly close). And even that, he's not even projected to be average for 1B or DH.

I'm assuming there's no Manny here since he signed with Tampa, but he's not on Tampa's projections, either. Is there any way you could add Manny's projection somewhere? Thanks

249/374/436 in TB (it'll appear in a couple of weeks with the prelim finals).

If Castro finishes with a higher OPS+ than Beckham I will eat my hat. This team looks damn good though. ZIPS loves Sales but doesn't think MB can get back over 200 innings. Why not Dan, is it just an age variable you put in?

If Castro finishes with a higher OPS+ than Beckham I will eat my hat. This team looks damn good though. ZIPS loves Sales but doesn't think MB can get back over 200 innings. Why not Dan, is it just an age variable you put in?

That Castro projection is only for 136 ABs, while Beckham's is for 553. I could definitely see Rastro hitting something like .250/.320/.460 in limited ABs.

That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best. I think they'll be forced to turn Sale into a reliever.

If Sale can put up an ERA near 4.40 as a starter with lots of Ks, I'd be happy keeping him as a starter* In a perfect world, I'd like a rotation of Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Jackson/Peavy, but who knows what's going on with Peavy. Plus, I think Crain & Ohman will pitch better than that projection. Pena too maybe. The starter depth is a bit of a concern though.

If Sale can put up an ERA near 4.40 as a starter with lots of Ks, I'd be happy keeping him as a starter* In a perfect world, I'd like a rotation of Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Jackson/Peavy, but who knows what's going on with Peavy.

I heard Don Cooper talking about this, and his concern was that he didn't want to jerk Sale around, moving him back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. It's not his decision, but I can understand the theory - if they want Sale to be a starter, make him a starter. If Peavy is healthy, stash Sale in AAA to get some work.

And under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer. But the White Sox are "All In" for 2011, and Sale is easily better right now than all but one or two current White Sox relievers. The temptation is going to be to make him a short reliever.

Supposedly the White Sox are still talking to Freddy Garcia, but they can't guarantee him a spot in the rotation all year, so they're giving him a chance to talk to other teams.

So Dunn's OPS+ projection is so high because the Cell is the right sort of park for him?

I have a hard time seeing how Quentin projects that well. I know he had the big 2008 but a quick Marcel gives me a 117 and I think ZiPS goes back 4 years which would bring his horrible 2007 into the equation.

Well,no. ZiPS thinks that if McPherson got about 425 ML PAs he would hit 26 HR. ZiPS, if it gave thought to such trivial matters, would probably guess that McPherson only gets that many PAs if Konerko or Dunn is out for the season. And the Cell is a HR-hitter's park.

So Dunn's OPS+ projection is so high because the Cell is the right sort of park for him?

Yeah, it boosts his homers without a corresponding boost to the value of a run.

I have a hard time seeing how Quentin projects that well. I know he had the big 2008 but a quick Marcel gives me a 117 and I think ZiPS goes back 4 years which would bring his horrible 2007 into the equation.

ZiPS thinks his baseline is higher than his actual numbers because the odds of a guy with power being a true .232 BABIP (where he is the last two years), barely above the level of a pitcher, are pretty long.

That's quite a bit lower than I would have expected, particularly with regard to his BABIP (and perhaps his strikeout rate). Looking at his numbers over the last three seasons, it seemed like a great signing, but his age notwithstanding, why is ZiPS so ungenerous to him? I'm also having a bit of trouble reconciling the walk rate both with his decline in power (wouldn't pitchers start throwing him more pitches in the zone?) and with his walk rates for the past three or four seasons - this looks like 16% or so when his weighted four-year average might lead me to expect something like 14%. Is all of this stuff a combination of park factors and age?

That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best.

I don't think the bullpen looks more worrisome than the rest of the roster, which lacks reliable depth throughout.
Thornton/Santos/Crain +/- Sale form a solid core, with Pena and Ohman unlikely to be truly awful, and beyond that of course there's a field of dross. So the bullpen as currently constructed is not likely to be great but probably won't be terrible. With an addition or two, it could be excellent.

It's interesting that Flowers projects slightly better (OPS+-wise) than AJ, though that's a pretty optimistic BB total for Flowers. Not sure the kid will get a chance if Castro plays like last year...

ZiPS thinks his baseline is higher than his actual numbers because the odds of a guy with power being a true .232 BABIP (where he is the last two years), barely above the level of a pitcher, are pretty long.

Fair enough ... but two years of 232 BABIP ... Yikes!

To the Bat-b-r Robin!

Good lord! The man has a career 251 BABIP. I didn't even realize this was possible for a ML hitter, much less one with power.

Conveniently ... and very, very oddly ... his career BA is the same as his career BABIP.

Looking at his other numbers, it does look like the world's worst run of luck. OK, last year was in part a 22% IF/FB rate and 17% career is well over the league average of 12% and his LD% is 2% lower (hey, b-r, we probably could use one decimal place on these).

OK, now that I think of it, decimal rounding ignored, having 5% more of your FB (for a FB hitter especially) be near automatic outs and 2% fewer LDs which are, what, hits 80-90% of the time would add up to 40-50 points of BA I think.

But then if I did my math in my head right, ZiPS projects him to about a 250 BABIP. The other rates all look about right and Quentin is projected to hit a bit above his career norms (by 10 points of BA basically ... not sure where that's coming from but it's not important). But, his career OPS+ is 114 so ZiPS is projecting him to hit for his career averages in a lower offensive context? Still a bit puzzled by that but we're in the weeds now.

Looking at his other numbers, it does look like the world's worst run of luck. OK, last year was in part a 22% IF/FB rate and 17% career is well over the league average of 12% and his LD% is 2% lower (hey, b-r, we probably could use one decimal place on these).

Quentin's problem might be that he's getting too much loft on his batted balls, if his very high FB% (45% for his career, as per fangraphs) and very low LD% (15.4%) are any indication. IIRC the BABIP for fly balls is lower than those of other batted balls. Does he have an uppercut swing? I don't get to see Quentin or the White Sox very much, so I can't say for sure if this is the case.

Quentin's problem might be that he's getting too much loft on his batted balls, if his very high FB% (45% for his career, as per fangraphs) and very low LD% (15.4%) are any indication. IIRC the BABIP for fly balls is lower than those of other batted balls. Does he have an uppercut swing? I don't get to see Quentin or the White Sox very much, so I can't say for sure if this is the case.

Quentin hits more towering flyballs and popups than anybody else I've seen on the White Sox. I've been hoping he could level out his swing a bit. It would certainly help if the Sox had a real hitting coach, rather than Greg Walker.

I've been hoping for quite some time that Walker would be replaced with Robin Ventura or Frank Thomas... though now that I think about it I'm not sure I want Frank trying to make everybody into front foot hitters.

I'm pretty pumped about those projections and this team. If Peavy does anything at all I think we win the central by 3 games, presuming no catastrophic injuries (as others have mentioned, the depth is terrible).

Slappy's big problems in the OF are lack of great instincts and an arm that would make a scout at a DIII game spit out his tobacco. Both of those are mitigated in LF and allow his athletic ability to shine through. I watched him a couple times in IF/OF before games last season, he's still got great speed and quickness, which seems borne out in the UZR data from his time in LF.