My Fearless Forecasts for 2014

At the Canadian Club Outlook 2014 luncheon I listed a number of predictions, as I've done for years, on the strength that the only clunker I've had in the past two years is my 2012 bet that gold prices would hit $2,000 US per ounce. On that note, here's my list of forecasts.

At the Canadian Club Outlook 2014 luncheon I listed a number of predictions, as I've done for years, on the strength that the only clunker I've had in the past two years is my 2012 bet that gold prices would hit $2,000 US per ounce. Never happened.

On that note, here's my list of forecasts, ranging all over the place and if involving numbers based on the International Monetary Fund.

1. Matching economic growth rates in the world's two biggest economic drivers -- the US and China -- in 2014 of 3% and 7% respectively. In absolute numbers this means roughly $500 billion for each country or equivalent to two-thirds of Canada's nominal GDP in 2014.

2. Canada will lag in economic growth, despite an increase in U.S. exports, because all its provinces east of Saskatchewan are in lousy fiscal shape with soaring debts and lousy credit ratings. And the Canadian consumer has traded places with the American consumer as the biggest spendthrifts in the developed world.

6. Keystone Pipeline won't be approved because it is a political football in US

7. European Union and Japan will be surprisingly excellent investments -- indirectly by betting on US companies doing business there and directly by cherry picking the best outfits. Don't write off either economic region.

8. China will remain stable

9. The Arab world will remain a mess for at least a generation

10. The Tea Party will hold its own (but not gain) in the US mid-terms this November due to its enormous war chest raised by the Koch Brothers.