Lions' lack of run game no big deal

It’s what nearly every football head coach says when taking the job, even when they have no intention or ability to do so. The Detroit Lions have seemed earnest in their attempts to get the ground game going, even though it’s led to slow starts and low scores.

It’s led many fans to clamor for a big, powerful running back who can make something out of nothing, control the ball and take pressure off quarterback Matthew Stafford.

But running the ball effectively doesn’t mean much when it comes to scoring points.

Here’s a chart showing the correlation between points scored and per-play pass and run efficiency in the NFL this season:

The blue dots and trendline are points scored vs. net yards per pass attempt, and the red dots and trendline are points scored vs. yards per rush attempt.

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The effect size, the “R squared,” shows the correlation between the two on a scale from 0 to 1. Without getting into a whole bunch of math, the 0.64 effect size shows there’s a relatively strong correlation between passing effectiveness and putting up points, and the .119 effect size of the run game shows there’s very little correlation between running the ball well and putting up points.

For instance, the Dallas Cowboys are gaining an average of 4.7 yards per run play — second-best in the NFL. Yet they’re only 15th in the NFL in scoring.

In fact, five teams averaging less than four yards per carry have outscored the Cowboys this year: Washington (3.9), the Seattle Seahawks (3.9), the Los Angeles Chargers (3.7), the Pittsburgh Steelers (3.7) and the Detroit Lions (3.4).

See those two lonely little dots hovering well below each trendline just shy of 300 points? That’s the Lions’ whose 294 points scored rank fifth in the NFL. Their total’s been inflated a little by non-offensive scores, but this is still an above-average unit by any metric.

The problem is in the second half of the equation: stop the run.

Detroit ranks 21st in yards per attempt allowed and has bizarrely surrendered a second-worst 14 rushing touchdowns. It also ranks 23rd in opponent net yards per pass attempt and 22nd in points allowed.

Sure, it would be nice if Detroit could run the ball, too, but the injury-riddled offensive line has been set up to block the pass, and committing to a power run game would require an expensive makeover of an already-expensive offense. It would only make it harder for the game’s highest-paid player to play well.

In the end, the offense is doing its job: the points are going up on the board. It makes far more sense to keep improving the defense than dismantle and rebuild an effective unit.