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Preparing for North Korean Regime Collapse

RAND Congressional Briefing Series

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About the Program

The North Korean government has shown signs of instability for some time. At some point in the coming years, a collapse could occur suddenly and with little warning, much like what happened in East Germany. But a North Korean collapse could have far more dangerous regional consequences, especially given the inadequate preparations for it. What will become of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction? How can a likely humanitarian disaster be mitigated and a civil war be avoided?

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Full Briefing

Featured Speaker

Bruce W. Bennett is a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation who works primarily on research topics such as strategy, force planning, and counterproliferation within the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center. He is an expert in Northeast Asian military issues, having visited the region some 90 times and written much about Korean security issues, and has also done much work on the Persian/Arab Gulf region. His Northeast Asian research has addressed issues such as future ROK military force requirements, the Korean military balance, counters to North Korean chemical and biological weapon threats in Korea and Japan, dealing with a North Korean collapse, changes in the Northeast Asia security environment, and deterrence of nuclear threats (including strengthening the U.S. nuclear umbrella). His work applies military simulation and analysis, war gaming, risk management, deterrence-based strategy, and competitive strategies. He specializes in “asymmetric threats” such as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and how to counter those threats with new strategies, operational concepts, and technologies. At RAND, he has worked with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the U.S. Army and Air Force, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, U.S. Forces Korea and Japan, the U.S. Pacific Command and Central Command, the ROK and Japanese militaries, and the ROK National Assembly. Bennett received his B.S. in economics from the California Institute of Technology and his Ph.D. in policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

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A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences, including a potential humanitarian disaster and civil war. The Republic of Korea and its U.S. ally will almost certainly have to intervene, but are ill-prepared to do so.

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