Forecast March 2019 (CEP 2019)

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over.

Press release

For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.

Government spending will increase substantially, although less so than envisaged. Higher expenditures will contribute to the economic growth projected for 2019 and 2020. And yet, some planned increases in spending, particularly regarding defence and infrastructure, will not be realised, partly because of the tight labour market. This contributes to a larger budget surplus projected for both years.

In addition to the newest economic figures, CPB also points to the benefits of a stable budget policy in case of further economic decline. Lower educated people and those working in flexible employment relationships would be hit the hardest by such a decline. Structural reforms could limit the uncertainties for such vulnerable groups in society.

Contacts

Forecast 21 March 2019 (CEP 2019), figures

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.