'Engaged' electorate spikes primary turnout on Cape

Wednesday

Analysts differ on what impact high voter numbers could have in November.

HYANNIS — The Massachusetts primary elections are over, but deciphering the results for trends and general election predictions has just begun.

Polling places across the Cape and Islands were busier than expected for a primary, especially on the day after a holiday, with many towns approaching 30 percent voter turnout.

“I think that’s reflective of national trends,” said Brian Frederick, associate professor and chairman of the political science department at Bridgewater State University. “We’ve been seeing higher turnout, especially among Democrats. There’s a lot of anti-Trump feeling driving people to the polls.”

Dennis Town Clerk Theresa Bunce had a hunch that competitive races on both major party ballots, combined with an active voter base, would spike turnout. Her prediction of 20 to 25 percent was on the low side, though.

“To get 28.5 percent was pretty nice,” said Bunce, speculating the November general election, with its ballot questions and the opportunity to vote early, could generate turnout of 45 percent or higher.

“What it (turnout) said was the electorate is engaged,” said Sandy Milano, president of the Cape and Islands Democratic Council. “People on both sides of the aisle recognize this election matters and they want their voices to be heard.”

If voters continue to come out in large numbers in November, local Republican incumbents could be in danger, according to Frederick.

“A larger turnout tends to benefit Democrats, so Republican incumbents can’t take anything for granted,” he said. “The Cape could be a swing area. If Democrats pick up seats in the Statehouse, the Cape could figure prominently in that.”

Republicans tend to get a consistent number of voters in the state, suggesting any large swing of Democratic voters could indeed cause issues for the GOP, according to Shannon Jenkins, associate professor and chairwoman of the department of political science at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.

Francis Manzelli, president of the Cape Cod Republican Club and a GOP state committeeman, differed with Frederick and Jenkins.

“I’m not quite sure I agree with that,” he said. “The Cape is one of the most solid Republican areas in the state.”

Republican incumbents facing a challenge by Democrats in November include state Sen. Viriato “Vinny” deMacedo, R-Plymouth, and state Reps. Randy Hunt, R-Sandwich; William Crocker, R-Centerville; and Timothy Whelan, R-Brewster.

The primary performance of Scott Lively, the ultra-conservative, anti-gay Republican pastor from Western Massachusetts, was a popular watercooler conversation topic around the Bay State on Wednesday.

Lively received nearly 100,000 votes — or 36.9 percent of total votes cast — against incumbent Charlie Baker, the nation’s most popular governor.

Jenkins said she predicted Lively would get one-third of the vote, but colleagues told her “no way.”

“I think it’s fascinating for what that means for turnout in the general election,” she said.

Baker will face Jay Gonzalez, the winner of the Democratic gubernatorial primary, in November.

Blue wave or not in November, Baker should not be too concerned, according to Frederick, identifying Lively voters as unhappy conservatives whose angst is not felt by other voting blocs.

“Some people who voted for governor in the Democratic primary will go for Baker, as will most of the people who did not vote,” Frederick said. “I don’t think this is a warning sign for Baker. He is in very little danger of losing to Gonzalez.”

State Rep. Geoff Diehl, R-Whitman, easily emerged from a three-candidate field, earning the nod to face incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in the general election.

“Diehl is so prominently identified with Trump it puts him at a distinct disadvantage, and Warren has big campaign bankroll,” said Frederick about the coming contest.

Diehl was co-chairman of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign in the state, but don’t hold your breath for a visit from the president, according to Frederick.

“Maybe he (Trump) will tweet out his support, but he likely won’t be here,” he said. “He’ll be focusing on seats that can be won.”

The Diehl victory could help Baker reclaim some of the votes he lost to Lively, Jenkins contends.

“It’s a good thing (for Baker) that Diehl won the nomination, because Lively voters will be mobilized to come out for Diehl,” she said, predicting those voters would likely cast a ballot for a Republican in the gubernatorial race.

James "Jay" McMahon III, a conservative Republican attorney from Bourne, beat challenger Daniel Shores in the primary for attorney general. McMahon faces incumbent Maura Healey, a Democrat, in the November finale.

“I was not surprised by McMahon or Diehl winning, but I thought Beth (Lindstrom) would have done better," Manzelli said of the U.S. Senate race.

It was a good night on the Cape and Islands for incumbents.

Hunt and U.S. Rep. William Keating, D-Mass., handily beat their primary opponents.

Keating trounced William Cimbrelo, a Democratic socialist from Osterville, but Jenkins said he needs to take his general election opponent, Republican Peter Tedeschi, of Marshfield, seriously.

“He (Tedeschi) has name recognition and money,” Jenkins said. “Those are two things you don’t want in a challenger.”

Keating’s House colleague, U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, D-Somerville, did not fare as well with his progressive opponent, losing his seat to Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley.

Despite his progressive platform, Cimbrelo failed to gain the momentum Pressley and other like-minded politicians across the country generated in recent months. Ditto for Josh Zakim, another Democratic Boston city councilor, who lost his primary race for secretary of state to longtime incumbent William Galvin.

“It seems to me that it’s more about representation and issues of gender and race,” Jenkins said. “It’s just not about philosophy. People feel better about their government when it’s more like them.”

One of the most anticipated races on the Cape, the 5th Barnstable District Republican primary between incumbent Hunt and controversial Barnstable County Commissioner Ronald Beaty Jr., was not even close, with Hunt capturing nearly 80 percent of the vote.