000
FXUS63 KABR 011503 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF
JONES/LYMAN COUNTIES. KEPT SOME POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES
OF THESE COUNTIES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED
STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD.
TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS AS THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
WAA ACCAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AM.
BOTH AREAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. THUS...STORMS NEAR JONES/LYMAN
WILL MOVE INTO NE...WHILE SHOWERS OVER KBIS/KMBG WILL LINGER NEAR
KABR BEFORE DISSIPATING.
FAST FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN
SD...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CAM SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW
FAR EAST AND SOUTH STORMS FORM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS NOT REALLY IMPROVED. NAM MLCAPE VALUES ARE
IN MY OPINION A TAD EXCESSIVE AT 4000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
REASONABLE AROUND 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SIMILAR AND TYPICAL
OF NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH 0-6KT SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. PROFILES SUPPORT
A HAIL/WIND THREAT BEFORE TRACKING INTO FSD CWA.
THE DRY LINE WILL GENERATE WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING TODAY...AS
FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY...EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST WITH UPPER 80S PREDICTED. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. THAT
INVERSION MIXES OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY AM FOR A RAPID JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES JUST BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OUT PERIODS. POPS ARE STILL SMEARED
ACROSS THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROGS HAVE RETURNED TO BOTH BEING NOTABLY
COOL BY WEEK`S END...WITH WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ELEVATED ACCAS-TYPE
CONVECTION CONTINUES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIERRE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE KPIR TERMINAL THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN NOW
AND 21Z...BUT THE CHANCES OF A STORM RUMBLING OVER A TERMINAL ARE
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT OF THOSE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN