Election explainer: Why is Ontario so 'seat rich'?

Cabinet secretary Peter Barnes (left) holds the oath of office for then- Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae during the swearing-in ceremony for Ontario's government in 1990. At the time, the Tories were in charge federally.John Falstead / THE CANADIAN PRESS

Q. I’m already getting sick of this phrase “seat-rich Ontario.” Why is there such a big focus on Ontario during federal elections?

A. It’s Canada’s electoral candy store. As the most populous province, Ontario has about nine million eligible voters, entitled to send 121 MPs to the House of Commons this election. That’s more than one-third of the 338 seats in the newly expanded chamber.

In fact, Ontarians will send almost as many MPs to Parliament as voters in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia combined. Quebec, the second biggest province, has 78 seats. So winning in Ontario is crucial to tasting power.

Q. Don’t the other provinces count?

A. Yes, but their ability to elect MPs is tied to the size of their populations. The smaller the province or territory, the fewer the seats its gets in Parliament.

The Constitution requires federal electoral districts be reviewed after each decennial (10-year) census to reflect changes and movements in the population. Based on an electoral representation formula in the Constitution – you do NOT want to know – and the 2011 national census, Quebec, B.C. and Alberta gained a total of 15 new seats for this election: six each in Alberta and British Columbia and three in Quebec. Most are new suburban ridings around major cities. (Fat Ontario got 15 more all to itself.)

The remaining provinces and territories gain none.

Q. Is there no justice, then, if I don’t live in Ontario?

A. A tiny bit. Smaller provinces receive a slightly greater percentage of the seat allocation than their percentage of the national population. The bigger provinces receive slight less. Prince Edward Island, with 0.42 per cent of the country’s population, gets four MPs representing 2.09 per cent of the seat total. Ontario, with 38.91 per cent of the population, gets 36.12 per cent of the seats.

Q. Does Ontario favour one federal party over the over?

A. Tory blue has been the prevailing political hue of late.

The 2011 and 2006 federal elections saw the Liberals lose seats, mainly to the Conservatives. The Harperites won 73 Ontario seats in 2011, with the New Democrats taking 22 and the Liberals 11 – down from the 54 seats the Grits won in 2006 and 75 seats in 2004.

What’s more, an Elections Canada analysis shows the Tories stand to benefit most when the 2011 Ontario results are transposed on to the new redistribution of seats in the province. If the 2011 distribution pattern holds – and that’s a big if – the Conservative would win 10 of the 15 new Ontario seats, the Liberals three and the NDP two.

Q. How about the way Ontarians vote provincially? Doesn’t that tell us who they will vote for federally?

A. Yes, but only in a perverse sense. Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives held power at Queen’s Park for most of the 20th century, while the federal Liberals controlled Parliament. The provincial Liberals have held uninterrupted power since 2003, while federal Conservatives have governed since 2006.

Now zoom in. The provincial Liberals went from a minority government to a majority in the 2014 election, all at the expense of Progressive Conservatives, who lost 10 seats. But the federal Conservatives routed the Liberals in the 2011 federal election in Ontario.

And then there’s the NDP. The surging federal party is looking to be to a force in the Oct. 19 outcome. The only time the NDP has won Ontario was the 1990 provincial election under Bob Rae – while Tory Brian Mulroney was in power in Ottawa.

Q. If Ontario is so important, what about Toronto?

A. It’s the big enchilada. With 55 seats up for grabs, the Greater Toronto Area has more voting clout than eight provinces and three territories. The only province that trumps the GTA (other than Ontario itself) is Quebec. The GTA – including the 416 and 905 area codes – is widely considered the prime battleground for the three parties.

Q. How did it become such an electoral powerhouse?

A. Shifting demographics. The primary trends in Ontario have seen a slight population decrease in the north and a significant increase in the south, primarily in the GTA.

As a result, 11 more ridings have been added there for this election, mainly to the doughnut of suburban 905 ridings around Toronto that are home to a lot of middle-class and immigrant voters.

The Conservatives won roughly two-thirds of the seats in the GTA in 2011 and nearly swept the 905 belt, where population growth and growing voting power delivered Stephen Harper his majority government. The Tories are clearly focusing again on the GTA to deliver victory.

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