01662nas a2200229 4500008004100000022001400041245008400055210006900139260000800208300001300216490000600229520095600235100002101191700002501212700002001237700002901257700001701286700002601303700001801329700001601347856006901363 2019 eng d a2375-254800a{Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium}0 aContribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the ne cjun aeaav93960 v53 aThe Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier–resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.1 aAschwanden, Andy1 aFahnestock, Mark, A.1 aTruffer, Martin1 aBrinkerhoff, Douglas, J.1 aHock, Regine1 aKhroulev, Constantine1 aMottram, Ruth1 aKhan, Abbas uhttp://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396