Inside the Star

Statistics do a number on Raptors

The Toronto Raptors will finish lower than sixth place in the NBA's Eastern Conference but remain in the hunt for a final playoff spot, says a leading sports mathematician who analyzed the team's prospects for the Star .

The Toronto Raptors will finish lower than sixth place in the NBA's Eastern Conference but remain in the hunt for a final playoff spot, says a leading sports mathematician who analyzed the team's prospects for the Star.

"The top six in East are almost surely Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami," says Wayne Winston, author of Mathletics and a professor of decision sciences at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University.

"I believe Chicago, Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and the Raptors will fight it out for last two playoff spots. (The Raptors) will be in it till the end of the season."

Winston's prognostications are based on a mathematical evaluation system that factors in the performance of each player every moment of every game. Based on league data, he and Jeff Sagarin of USA Today developed a point system that measures the degree to which a player influences his team's success – or lack thereof – on the court.

Applying that algorithm to the Raptors, there's good news. And bad.

The key losses from last season are Anthony Parker and Shawn Marion, says Winston.

Parker played five points better than average last year. And while newcomer Jarrett Jack has good offensive numbers, he won't make up for the loss.

"Parker will be missed," Winston says. "I predict he will be a huge help to the Cleveland Cavaliers."

Newcomer Reggie Evans (two points below average last year) should help the Raptors' toughness and rebounding, Winston says.

But the sleeper hit, he predicts, will be Amir Johnson.

"He is a vastly underrated power forward who should really be a surprise for Toronto fans."

After adjusting for other players on the court, opposing teams scored a startling average of 11 fewer points when Johnson was playing last year, the analysis shows.

While Johnson's offensive performance wasn't great, his contribution per game was still nearly four points better than average.

Hedo Turkoglu (three points above average), one of the league's 50 top players, will prove another important new addition, Winston predicts.

"He can play 40 minutes a game and play any position except centre. It was great to get him."

Chris Bosh remains a top-40 NBA player, playing better than four points over average last year.

Andrea Bargnani, the club's former first-round pick, has been a statistical disappointment.

The first overall pick in the 2006 NBA draft played six points worse than an average player last year, proving a mathematical liability on both offence and defence.

An illustration: when Parker, Bosh and Jose Calderon were on the court together without Bargnani last year, they played nine points above average. With Bargnani thrown into the mix, they dropped to four points below average.

"I can't explain why that is, but it is a dramatic swing," Winston says. "This is concrete evidence that he isn't helping the team. It's important that they know that if he plays a lot of minutes and does not improve, they'll win fewer games."

Antoine Wright and Rasho Nesterovic should make the bench deeper but won't be "difference makers," Winston says.

Overall, the Raptors were two points per game worse than an average NBA team, Winston found.

If they erased that two-point deficit, they would likely make the playoffs, he says.

"The six through 10 spots in the Eastern Conference are going to be tight, but the Raptors should be in the playoff race barring injuries. It's going to be exciting."

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