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China quarterly update, April 2011 (Chinois)

Résumé

China's economic growth has remained resilient as the macro stance moved towards normalization. Both fiscal and monetary policy contributed to the normalization. Consumption growth slowed in early 2011. But overall domestic demand held up well, supported... Voir la suiteChina's economic growth has remained resilient as the macro stance moved towards normalization. Both fiscal and monetary policy contributed to the normalization. Consumption growth slowed in early 2011. But overall domestic demand held up well, supported by still strong investment growth. Real estate investment has so far remained robust to measures to contain housing prices, a policy focus. Reducing inflation is the other policy priority, after inflation rose to 5.4 percent, largely on higher food prices. The global growth outlook has so far been little affected by the higher raw commodity prices and the earthquake in Japan. Domestically, headwind from a normalized macroeconomic stance, inflation, and somewhat slower global growth is likely to be partly offset by solid corporate investment and a still robust labor market. An expected slowdown in mainstream housing construction should in part be compensated by the government's ambitious social housing construction plans. With a broadly neutral contribution of net trade, project China's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 9.3 percent in 2011 and 8.7 percent in 2012. The surge in raw commodity prices means we expect another decline in the current account surplus this year. However, whether the trend towards a lower external surplus and lower dependence on external trade will be sustained remains to be seen.
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