Tuesday, February 19, 2013

A Look At The Weekend Events

After today's showery scenario, the next system in the pike is a one-two "punch" that passes through the region on Friday through Sunday morning thanks to another storm system that pushes north into the Midwest. This system splits into two pieces, with the northern piece of this sending a weak wave of energy through the region on Friday before the southern energy moves northeast on Saturday PM or Sunday.

Neither wave looks terribly impressive -- and the models are really wimping out the Friday wave before it moves overhead. You can see the GFS' interpretation below, which is to weaken Friday's system as it moves over the Appalachians. Some light snow, perhaps drizzle, looms as a possibility. Might be a coating type accumulation around the region if this does indeed come to fruition. The southern energy tends to rob this northern piece of its moisture, which means the shower and precipitation threat will extend into the weekend moreso than it will be a threat on Friday.

The second piece of this weekend's precipitation event will come with a bit more moisture, but modeling as of now varies in track and detail. The Euro (not shown) is a bit faster and a bit more northerly with the track of this low. The GFS is a bit slower and more southerly. Both show rain for the city and immediate area. The Euro may be a bit more prone to suggest snow over the Poconos but neither model is showing much in the way of cold air aloft or at the surface.

The northern wave, despite its weak nature, does push out of the rest of the subfreezing cold locally, allowing for a warmer solution in the models as of now for the second half of this event. We're not talking glorious sunshine and 60's warmth but we're talking a solid round 40's, perhaps 50's, for Saturday and Sunday, a mild trend which will continue into next week.