Looks Horrible to Me

This was what I emailed to a trader I know earlier and he completely agrees. What do you think?

I, in the beginning of the year, thought that we'd see the subprime mess contained throughout the 2nd half of this year. Right now it doesn't look so much like that any more. With oil and food prices as high as they are (and going higher), inflation is out of control and some are still overlooking another bubble we have coming on. With these artificially low, dollar-killing rates that the Federal Reserve is cutting out there, credit card debt will continue piling on the consumer's wallet. Once the Fed starts raising rates in order to combat inflation (and they will have by mid-2009), credit card rates will increase and consumers will be forced to either commit to bankruptcy, lose their homes (which is trouble already), and start cutting back on spending. It is horrific to see what is going to happen within the next two years if credit card debt becomes the next implosion. Remember the U.S. consumers carries over $1.2 trillion in credit card debt, which equates to about $3,952 per person.

Now, I don't recommend going out and shorting everything, as we'll probably get some artificial rallies between now and the March 18th FOMC meeting. After that, I am definitely short for a good while, using put and call options, SDS, DXD, and some other bearish strategies).