September 19, 2007

Indian Wheat Yields

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, said: "Wheat production in
India is already in decline, for no other reason than climate change.
Everyone thought we didn't have to worry about Indian agriculture for
several decades. Now we know it's being affected now." There are signs
a similar shift is under way in China, he added.

And I thought, that's a little odd. Climate change is going to happen and furthermore it already has...which could indeed be true. But that specific piece of evidence of linkage to Indian wheat yields. Hmm.

Phalaris minor too
came with the wheat consignments from the United States. This weed, already
resistant to chemicals in the US and Australia, has established itself as a
strong competitor of wheat in India. The weed has also become resistant to
chemicals in India and is responsible for reducing wheat yields by an estimated
25 per cent.

While the wheat yield in Punjab has fallen by about 22 per cent over the last five years,(...) Chief Agriculture
Officer, Patiala, Balwinder Singh Sohal said sustainability of wheat
production in Punjab has become difficult due to “alarming depletion of
micro-nutrients in the soil and continuous fall in groundwater level”.

And the news comes at a time when the country's
most widely grown wheat variety, PBW 343, has shown susceptibility to a
new race of yellow rust fungus. Cultivated in six million hectares of
the wheat area in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, yield
losses of anywhere between 20--30 per cent have been predicted for the
present.

Yellow rust?

Obviously, I don't have enough information to judge whether the Good Doctor is correct or not, but I'm still left with the suspicion that he's pointing to something which is undoubtedly happening, falling Indian wheat yields, and claiming that this is a result of climate change...when there are other possible reasons for that fall.