We at Dogs, Shotguns and Other Vices have been praying for a cold front to save our duck season since Thanksgiving, and yet here we are: January 13 and it's still 10-15 degrees above normal without a snowflake in sight across much of the country. This wacky weather cycle has persisted for so long that, according to Delta Waterfowl Senior Vice President John Devney, it has even become a conservation concern. Ducks reaped the benefits of last spring's flooding across the Prairie Pothole Region, but, Devney says, "Mother Nature has flipped the switch."

What's the major determining factor as to whether waterfowl populations go boom or bust? It isn't food resources on the wintering grounds, it isn't disease and it certainly isn't hunting mortality. By a wide margin, it is actually nest success—the more eggs that hatch, the more ducks we can expect in a given population. Other important factors include the survival of ducklings and nesting hens.

Perhaps more than anything else, a successful duck season depends on the weather moving ducks to the right place at the right time. We hope their peak arrival occurs mid-season and they take their time moving farther south.