Syria’s Long War

I think it’s inevitable that the regime will collapse. But I don’t think that the collapse will be one that resembles the other Arab Spring uprisings, even Yemen. I think you’re going to have a long, drawn out civil war. This is barring direct military intervention which takes out the regime and which I think is highly unlikely. As a result, I think that you’ll see covert support for the insurgency. They’ll gradually carve out autonomous zones. Then you’ll have militias fighting each other and that could last for years.