For the Tea Party, a Long War

Christopher Papagianis is the managing director of Economics21, a research institute. He was a special assistant for domestic policy to President George W. Bush.

Updated January 17, 2012, 12:24 PM

There is still a lot of dust in the air as this budget deal makes its way toward the finish line. Yet, it’s already clear that the political (and policy) legacy of the Tea Party in this debate will be viewed positively.

If the Tea Party accepts that the process will take time, then it will do very well in the next election and may actually pick up some seats.

At times over the past few months, the political theater that is D.C. made it appear as though Congress was structurally deficient. A chorus of commentators came out saying that our divided government and starkly split constituencies make it impossible to achieve meaningful compromise any more.

But now, the enactment of a robust deal looks imminent. The group that drove the details of the deal, more than any other, was the Tea Party. Did the Tea Party get everything that its supporters wanted? Certainly not. But, the deal achieves meaningful progress on the Tea Party’s agenda.

For example, the deal will force a vote later this fall in both the Senate and the House on a balanced budget amendment. It will also include spending caps that limit government’s expansion over the next 10 years. And, if Congress breaks these spending caps, automatic across-the-board cuts would take effect. Finally, the deal includes no new tax increases.

In general, all of these things were embraced by the Tea Party. Did Tea Party supporters want to see change on a more accelerated timeline (in other words, more cuts this year or next)? Of course. Have they responded positively to remarks by traditional Republicans that change can only happen slowly in D.C.? Of course not.

While the Tea Party may not like the current pace of this change movement, it’s important to keep in mind that big philosophical battles -- about the size of government and the scope of our social safety net -- can take about a decade. Welfare reform is perhaps the most recent example. The intellectual underpinnings of the effort emerged in the 1980s, but it wasn’t until the 1990s that the political culture had changed such that real reform could be achieved.

This August 2011 budget deal ensures that fiscal consolidation will be front and center on the national agenda for the rest of the year -- and also through the 2012 election. At the same time, steady near-term progress was achieved. This is exactly what the Tea Party supporters should want. Sure, they will be required to hold the members they helped elect accountable for a longer period of time than they would have been if everything had been magically included in this deal. But, that doesn’t mean they aren’t still winning on the direction of policy.

If the Tea Party embraces the fact that this process will -- and should -- continue for years to come, then it will not only do very well in the next election politically, but will also actually pick up seats and its influence will grow.