Basic Bar

Sunday, February 12, 2012

High School to the Majors: Positional Players

Recently, I ran across a criticism of the Pittsburgh Pirates, specifically how they handle prospects. The criticism alluded to the fact that the Pirates generally are conservative with pushing prospects, especially high school draftees. The general statement bemoaned the fact that expecting a player to make the major leagues within four full years of being drafted is nothing more than a foolish wish. Under Neal Huntington, college players drafted have beat that four year limit. Pedro Alvarez made it to the big leagues by his second full year as a professional. Chase D'Arnaud made the show last year in his third full year. On the high school level, the criticism is fairly accurate. In 2008, Huntington's first draft class, the Pirates paid two high school players - Quinton Miller and Robbie Grossman - either seven figures or nearly seven figures. Miller has been a bust and while Grossman has turned himself into a top prospect (on Keith Law's top 100 list for example) but will start next year in AA and is unlikely to arrive in Pittsburgh by the end of the year. That will give him one more year to make the show by his fourth full year in the big leagues. This reality can be particularly disheartening as Pirates fans watch high school phenoms such as Jason Heyward and Mike Trout fly to the major leagues, with the former taking his first at-bat for the Braves at age 20 and the latter taking his first at-bat for the Angels still as a teenager.

I decided to take a more in-depth look at how quickly prospects, specifically those drafted out of high school, move through the minors. To do so, I used the following criteria. First, I used fangraphs to identify each batter (I will do pitchers later) that had his rookie season. My time period was the last five years, from 2007-2011. From there, I determined which of those batters were high school draftees that made it to their rookie season within five years of being drafted. That means every player on my list played a maximum of four full seasons in the minor leagues.

2007

Player Name

Draft Bonus

Draft Position

Draft Year

Current Team

Delmon Young

3.70M

1(1)

2003

DET

James Loney

1.50M

1(19)

2002

LAD

Billy Butler

1.45M

1(28)

2004

KC

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

950K

1S(36)

2003

BOS

Elijah Dukes

500K

3(74)

2002

NONE

2008

Player Name

Draft Bonus

Draft Position

Draft Year

Current Team

Ian Stewart

1.95M

1(10)

2003

CHC

Jay Bruce

1.80M

1(12)

2005

CIN

Blake DeWitt

1.20M

1(28)

2004

CHC

Ryan Sweeney

785K

2(52)

2003

BOS

2009

Player Name

Draft Bonus

Draft Position

Draft Year

Current Team

Cameron Maybin

2.65M

1 (10)

2005

SD

Andrew McCutchen

1.90M

1 (11)

2005

PIT

Travis Snider

1.70M

1 (14)

2006

TOR

Colby Rasmus

1.00M

1 (28)

2005

TOR

Dexter Fowler

925K

14 (410)

2004

COL

Jordan Schafer

320K

3 (107)

2005

HOU

Kyle Blanks

140K

(42) (1241)

2004

SD

2010

Player Name

Draft Bonus

Draft Position

Draft Year

Current Team

Jason Heyward

1.70M

1(14)

2007

ATL

Austin Jackson

800K

8(259)

2005

DET

Ryan Kalish

600K

9(283)

2006

BOS

Mike Stanton

475K

2(76)

2007

MIA

Peter Bourjos

325K

10(313)

2005

LAA

Logan Morrison

225K

22(666)

2005

MIA

Michael Brantley

150K

7(205)

2005

CLE

Josh Thole

UNKNOWN

13(389)

2005

NYM

2011

Player Name

Draft Bonus

Draft Position

Draft Year

Current Team

Eric Hosmer

6.00M

1(3)

2008

KC

Mike Moustakas

4.00M

1(2)

2007

KC

Brett Lawrie

1.70M

1(16)

2008

TOR

Hank Conger

1.35M

1(25)

2006

LAA

Ben Revere

750K

1(28)

2007

MIN

Freddie Freeman

409.5K

2(78)

2007

ATL

Domonic Brown

200K

20(607)

2006

PHI

The list is ordered according to bonus amount. In those five years, there were 31 players who made it to the big leagues out of high school with only four years or less of minor league experience. 16 of the 31 (51.6%) were first round picks. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was drafted in the first supplemental round. 15 of those 31 received more than one million dollars (48.3%) for their signing bonus. Those draftees making the show quickly are expected. They were drafted in the position they were drafted and given the bonuses they were given for a reason: talent.

On the flipside, there were only a few players that came out of nowhere. Kyle Blanks, Domonic Brown, and Logan Morrison all were drafted in the 20th round or later and given bonuses under a quarter of a million dollars. Outfielder Michael Brantley also signed for only 150K, although he was drafted in the 7th round.

Basically, the Pirates do seem a bit behind in producing major league positional players quickly once they nab them out of high school. They are represented by Andrew McCutchen, although that's not unexpected because he was drafted in the first half of the first round. Still, it seems to me that there are so few players that have zipped to the major leagues. Again, only 16 who received a bonus under one million dollars in the last five years. It looks like the Pirates drought will continue into the near future, but considering having a player make this list seems to be a rarity rather than the other way around, I'm not too upset. However, considering the Pirates have spent more on pitcher, I can't say my sentiment will be the same when my pitching study is complete.