While Mitt Romney practices his y’alls and jumpin’ catfish and boiled peaches and banana pudding with vanilla wafers, he comes South for what he calls “an away game” — two Southern Tuesday races, in Alabama and Mississippi.

Surprisingly, according to some polls, Romney has an actual chance to pick off one or maybe both of these states. A Rasmussen poll out of Alabama has a virtual three-way tie with Newt at 30%, Rick Santorum at 29 and Romney with 28. And in Mississippi, Ras has Romney ahead with 35 percent and Newt tied with Santorum at 27.

This is Romney’s best chance for the big upset because he still has the split-conservative vote working for him. If Newt doesn’t win both states, he will probably (finally) drop out and leave Santorum to face Mitt one-on-one (plus Ron Paul). It could be fun to watch. I know I’ll be at the tube Tuesday, with a plate full of biscuits and chocolate gravy – an Alabama specialty, I’m told. That’s almost enough to make you want to visit for a spell. Almost.

Bonus pick: Sarah Palin. Tells CNN she won’t rule out a run in 2016 – which would mean, of course, that the Republican nominee would have to lose in 2012. A run in 2016, though, could mean a sequel for “Game Change.” Julianne Moore, keep in touch.

The big question after Super Tuesday is not who won – it was, well, closer than many had guessed – but why Mitt Romney can’t put a very weak field away.

There are two things you can probably count on now. That Romney will eventually be the GOP nominee. And that Romney won’t get the nomination, however, without spending a lot of capital — the money kind of capital and the political kind.

When Romney won in Michigan last week, everyone said it was a case of winning ugly. Well, post-Ohio – which turned out to be as close as the width of an aspirin stuck between Foster Freiss’ knees – it’s still ugly. Romney can’t get into general election form because he is still being pulled to the right by Santorum. And the longer it takes him to get to the general election, the weaker Romney looks.

Romney outspent Santorum more than five to one on Super Tuesday, and still it took nearly all night before he could claim Ohio, the night’s big prize. Santorum, who claims to be the blue-collar candidate, can’t win the blue-collar states, which would seem to be a problem for him. And if you’re the kind of person who insists on looking at the math, there’s an even bigger problem. It’s hard to see how any of it adds up for delegate-shy Santorum.

But he’s not dead. He is, as Miracle Max would say, only mostly dead. And when you have your Super PAC, that means you’re still alive. Ask the Newtster.

Romney leaves Super Tuesday with very little momentum. The next states in play are Kansas and Mississippi and Alabama and Hawaii. Newt Gingrich has a great chance in the southern states. He’s now calling himself the tortoise — leaving us to wonder if that means the walrus is Paul — but he’s a tortoise that may be native only to the South.

Santorum will also play in those states. If slow-moving Romney – no hare himself – starts losing more states to either or both, he will look only weaker.

Early in the day, Barack Obama stole the spotlight from the Republicans with a Super Tuesday news conference — some coincidence, huh? – in which he got mostly questions on foreign policy. When questions start to move away from the economy, that’s all Obama could ask for. And in what may be a real upset, Obama is the one who looks like a grownup in foreign affairs. He called out the Republican candidates for talking tough on Iran without explaining to Americans what the costs of going to war in Iran would be. He knocked them for their “casualness” about war.

It did not turn out, of course, to be a casual evening for anyone. Romney won. He won the most states and easily won the most delegates. So why did it seem that instead of winning, he had just barely survived?

We — by which I mean the media elites – have apparently decided that Ohio is the only state that matters tomorrow among the 10 states voting on Super Tuesday, except, for some reason, maybe Tennessee. But there are 419 delegates at stake across the nation, the first really big haul of the campaign season.

Here’s what you should watch for:

1. Ohio. The smart money has Romney with a slight lead. There are good reasons for this. Romney has momentum (five straight wins). And Santorum has been having trouble getting on message after his “throw up” and “snob” double-dip — which, for a time, Santorum seened to think was his message. Romney can afford to lose here. Santorum cannot. Both candidates understand this, which is what makes it such a good fight. If Santorum can’t win a blue-collar midwest state like Ohio, it’s hard to see any chance for him to win the nomination.

2. Tennessee. Once upon a time, there was a Newt Super Tuesday strategy, in which Gingrich would win his home state of Georgia, win in Tennessee, win in Oklahoma, score well in Ohio and make a case that he could overcome his essential Newtness and still beat Mitt Romney. That was then. Now, Santorum needs to win here to to show he can win in the South – and Tennessee is an entry point. Romney has been closing here as well. If Romney wins Ohio and Tennessee, all the “Inevitability” headlines would return.

3. Home town-ness. Newt is expected to win in GA. Nobody will care, except maybe Newt. And Callista. And their guy at Tiffany’s. (Mitt has MA, one of his many home states.)

4. Delegate watch. The Santorum delegate-slate debacle in Ohio (he could lose as many as 18 for not filing in time) shows that Romney has all the organizational chops in the GOP race. Nobody else has a national campaign. Everyone is trying to play catch-up – and not playing it very well. The longer the field stays split, the better for Romney.

5. Slog-lovers. Will anyone drop out? If Newt really wants Romney to lose, he would drop out after Tuesday and swing his support to Santorum. My guess is he won’t, because he enjoys running more than he enjoys Romney losing. Santorum – whatever happens – will figure it’s JFK’s fault, and that he’s going to stick around. Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere, because why should he?

Comments Off on Five Things To Watch on Super Tuesday — Other than Wolf Blitzer

The GOP race is headed for a 10-state showdown Tuesday, and all anyone can talk about is El Rushbo, the Viagra man himself who has united the country (against him) by calling a Georgetown Law student a “slut” for having the nerve to testify about — hold your ears – contraception.

Just days after Rick Santorum cost himself a chance at a Romney-crushing upset in Michigan by going all Pepto-Bismol on JFK, Limbaugh makes an entire nation sick to its stomach by suggesting the young woman, Sandra Fluke, should pay back society for providing her with free birth control pills by making a sex tape for Rush and his porn-watching gang.

Here’s the quote: “So, Miss Fluke, and the rest of you feminazis, here’s the deal. If we are going to pay for your contraceptives . . . we want something for it. We want you to post the videos online so we can all watch.”

Yes, it’s Rush and feminazis and contraception and porn. And so we go, while we still can, to the big board (last week’s rankings).

1. Mitt Romney. If he wins in Ohio, that would be the beginning of the end. (1)

2. Rick Santorum. If he wins in Ohio, that could be the end of the beginning. (2)

3. Ron Paul. Maybe he can find a Super Tuesday caucus he can win. Just for the heck of it. (3)

Rick Perry had his oops moment. Newt Gingrich had his Florida Falter. And Rick Santorum went to Arizona to debate with everything on the line — and left as the self-described Great Compromiser, which, if you haven’t noticed, is not a compliment these days in the GOP. He said he took one for the team – and Mitt Romney, who hasn’t met a position he couldn’t change, was disingenuously asking which team. With the game on the line, Romney comes through again.

Will the debate hurt Santorum? We’ll find out Tuesday, when Michigan – one of Romney’s many home states – and Arizona vote. The polls in Arizona are pretty close to even. But the Romney people think that the home-town attack machine will prove out in the end. Of course, if Romney loses, anything could happen.

To the big board (last week’s rankings):

1. Mitt Romney. Accuses Obama of historic attack on religion. Or was Romney making a historic attack on truth?

2. Rick Santorum. Can’t forget the motor city.

3. Ron Paul. Seems to be tag-teaming with Romney. I didn’t think the Ron Paul Revolution made deals.

4. Newt Gingrich. It’s time to start working on that concession speech.

Bonus pick: Brokered convention. All brokered convention fans will be rooting for Santorum to upset Romney Tuesday. By Wednesday, Sarah Palin will be somewhere on Fox saying it’s not too late for someone (wink) to get in the race.

Or, take an aspirin, put it between your knees and call me in the morning.

The big news this week in the GOP race is that Mitt Romney has surged to the front . . . of the anti-debate Republicans. That means – and I shudder to say it – that Wednesday’s debate could be the last one ever, or at least the last one this primary season, which, if the Mayan calendar has it right, may be the same thing. Romney said he wasn’t going to do the March 1 debate. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum quickly followed. And Newt “Remember Me?” Gingrich said it was because everyone feared him. Oops.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has taken the lead in the Michigan polls, in the Ohio polls and in the national polls. Could Santorum really beat Romney in Michigan? If he does — and I know this will be big for him – he’ll take No. 1 in the coveted Littwin power rankings for the first time this year. So, as they say in Chicago, which is near Michigan, vote early, vote often.

To the board (last week’s ranking):

1. Mitt Rommey. By skin of his very expensive teeth. (1)

2. Rick Santorum. To paraphrase Paul Simon, Michigan seems like a dream to him now. (2)

3. Ron Paul. He still has a chance. To win Maine. Yes, Maine. As goes Maine, so goes …. Maine. (3)

4. Newt Gingrich. His sugar daddy, Sheldon Adelson, seems to be all in. But maybe for Romney. (4)

Bonus pick: Foster Friess. One thing for sure, the billionaire Super PACer is far more entertaining than the guy who’s fronting him. If Santorum wins the GOP nomination, Friess is the guy to blame/credit.

Or, did Rick Santorum really say we’re heading for the guillotine? I didn’t think the CPAC guys were that tough a crowd.

Santorum is back, not that most of us noticed he had gone anywhere. He won in Iowa – remember? – but the victory didn’t come until two weeks after the fact, which is not the greatest thing that can happen to you, bounce-wise. But now he is the winner of the Colorado caucuses – and apparently two other contests held the same night – and he becomes the not-Romney that the Newtster always dreamed of being.

Romney gets a big part of the credit, deciding that the early-February trifecta didn’t matter, meaning he decided not to waste all that money he’d raised – and allowed Santorum to have a fair fight. We saw how that worked out. Time to bring back the brass knuckles.

Or, if economy does, in fact, continue to improve, what exactly is Mitt Romney’s campaign about?

When Romney trashed Newt in Florida, it gave us political junkies the chance to watch Gingrich in full lunar-colony mode, making his concession speech (in which he didn’t mention Mitt) his vision of what he’d do on his first day in the White House. Unfortunately for Newt, that first day will probably come when Obama or Romney issues him an invite. I don’t think he should hold his breath in either case, although watching Newt hold his breath may become part of the remaining campaign.

Romney is expected to cruise in both the NV and CO caucuses. He has money. He has the organization. And he’s not Newt.

To the big board (last week’s ranking):

1. Mitt Romney. Yeah, he’s going to win. But did you see him sucking up to the Donald? Is it worth it? (1)

2. Newt Gingrich. There’s no debate until Feb. 22. (2)

3. Ron Paul. I went to a big Ron Paul rally in Denver. It was the first time I’d ever heard 1,000 people chanting, “End the Fed.” (3)

4. Rick Santorum. I saw the photo of him with Dave “Doc” Schultheis. It wasn’t a dream. Neither was the Tancredo endorsement (I’d rather have Trump). (4)

Bonus pick: Roseanne Barr is apparently running to be the Green Party nominee for president. I don’t really know what I could add to that.

When they write the history of this campaign, there will be a large chapter devoted to what happened to Newt Gingrich’s surge when it hit Florida. He had the polls. He had his buddy Sheldon’s money. He had Mitt Romney’s Swiss bank account. But when Romney was forced to attack Newtie in the debates, Gingrich — the street fighter from way back – decided not to fight back. Why? I have no idea. Maybe he thought the Bad Newt couldn’t get elected president (he can’t). Maybe he thought Good Newt is an attractive candidate (he’s not). Maybe he just wants to go back to being his old self, the historian/not lobbyist.

Whatever happened, he might as well have escorted Romney down the path to Florida’s primary election Tuesday. If Romney wins, he probably wins the whole thing.

To the big board (last week’s ranking):

1. Mitt Romney. It’s not too late for Cayman Islands vacation. (1)

2. Newt Gingrich. Good Newt? Not so much. (2)

3. Ron Paul. Washington Post writes that — surprise – Paul knew all about the nasty racist newsletters. Which will discourage exactly no one in the Ron Paul Revolution. (3)

4. Rick Santorum. He proves there’s a lot more to winning nomination than scoring well in debates. (4)

Bonus pick: Wolf Blitzer. When Newt predictably came after him in the debate after Wolf asked a perfectly legitimate question, Wolf defended himself well. And then Romney defended him. And then Newt looked — what? Petty? Disingenuous? Demagoguish? How about essentially Newtish?

It’s down to four, and not surprisingly, down to the four best debaters – who were all on the stage Thursday night in Charleston. In the highlight, Newt took the open-marriage question and hit it about 400 miles. It will take weeks for John King to recover from the whiplash. Meanwhile, Rick Santorum slammed Gingrich for grandiosity,and Newtie deftly tried to claim the word for his own.

It was the end of a remarkable day, in which Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Gingrich, Santorum learned that he had won in Iowa and Marianne Gingrich went on ABC to say that Newt was even worse than we thought. Speaking of which, Mitt Romney still doesn’t know what to say about his taxes, except that he’s rich and the rest of us must be envious.

What’s it all mean? My guess is that it means the Gingrichian Restoration Part Deux lives. He edges Romney in South Carolina, Santorum probably quits and Ron Paul marches on. Of course, the way this race has gone, every guess is just a wild guess.

To the big board (last week’s rankings):

1. Mitt Romney. If not, there’s always the Cayman Islands. (1)

2. Newt Gingrich. A win in South Carolina keeps him alive. But barely. (3)

3. Ron Paul. He wins every week, because for him a win is just showing up to spread the gospel of the Ron Paul Revolution. (2)

4. Rick Santorum. He was first in Iowa. He was first in the debate. But there can be only one not-Romney, and it looks like he’s second to Newt. (4)

Bonus pick. We have to say good-by to Rick Perry, who finally seceded from the race. And now he’ll just have the state of Texas to kick around.

Among my other sins, I'm a serial columnist. Over too many years to mention, I've written news columns, sports columns, features columns and op-ed columns. My first job was covering the Virginia Squires and Dr. J in the old American Basketball Association. I moved from the Virginian-Pilot to the Los Angeles Times, then to the Baltimore Sun, then to the late Rocky Mountain News and on to The Post.

A blog about whatever thoughts bounce through Mike Littwin's head — from politics to basketball (speaking of bouncing) to politics to books to politics to movies to politics to Sarah Palin (whenever I need the extra clicks).