The Dolphins didn’t do themselves any favors with their loss at Buffalo today, but Miami did get some relatively good news in the late-afternoon window of games, as the Ravens’ loss to New England and the Chargers’ win over Oakland has set up a mad dash to the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC.

The Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers and Steelers are all mathematically alive heading into the final week of the regular season and only one of those four teams will make it to the playoffs.

Dolphins win, Chargers and Ravens lose. The Dolphins go to playoffs (based on having better record).

If the Dolphins lose, they cannot make the playoffs. If there’s a four-way tie at 8-8 between Miami, San Diego, Baltimore and the Jets (who, by beating the Dolphins, would be 8-8), Baltimore wins the Wild Card. If there’s a five-way tie between those teams and the Steelers, Pittsburgh would win the final spot in the playoffs.

Make sense?

UPDATE:

Check out this tweet if you’re interested in scenarios involving ties.

Please Note:
The opinions, analysis and/or speculation expressed by The Finsiders Blog represent those of individual writers, and unless quoted or clearly labeled as such, do not represent the opinions, policies or desires of the Miami Dolphins organization, front office, coaches and executives. Writers' views are formulated independently from any inside information and/or conversation with Dolphins officials, including the coaches and scouts, unless otherwise noted.

We had one bad game and all of a sudden everyone in the organization needs to be fired? Yeah, I would have liked some different play calls but it is what it is. I like the core of the team that Ireland and philbin have brought in. Tannehill will be successful and is getting better. Don’t forget we get Gibson and Keller back next year and Wallace and tannehill will continue to develop the deep ball. Defensively we made some good pickups too with Brent grimes and ellerbe. I think dion Jordan will end up being a great player as we’ll, but we’re not seeing him play very much only because Olivier Vernon has been playing so dominant this year. We have the best shot to make the wildcard and I think we will. Then we get the face the bengals and colts who we beat both already this year. Despite what most of u may think, this team is getting better and for that I am happy.

Replace the entire OL, plus get a POWER RUNNING BACK, Miller and Thomas are not the answer, the biggest Dolphin’s mistake was to let go Reggie Bush. Remember the Washington Redskin ” The Hogs” that’s what we need here to protect Tannehill. Good Luck to our quarterback if we go to any of the playoff’s scenarios. PLEASE OL DON’T GET HIM HURT.

Being a good GM begins and ends with QB drafting. As much as I hate to give Ireland credit for anything, he took a risk on Tannehill. Remember, everyone was blasting the Phins for drafting Tannehill before and after the draft. But Ireland put his foot down and took a gamble. Can anyone honestly say Tannehill doesn’t look like a franchise QB. How many game-winning or tying drives have you seen at the end of games this year? Against ATL, CIN, NE, PIT, etc. The Buffalo game notwithstanding, I think Ireland has done something many GMs have consistently failed to do over the past decade and a half…Find that franchise QB. Am I wrong?

This year, we put up two complete stinker games. This week in Buffalo and at NO. Beyond that, I think this team has been pretty competitive. I expected nothing before the season, and after the entire O-line left the team, I expected even less. As a franchise, I think we are going in the right direction and have been pleasantly surprised by the heart and grit of the team overall. This team needs continuity to be successful. I say we keep Philbin/Ireland intact and ride it out until it becomes obvious that the tandem has run its course. Anyone disagree?

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

All thats fine in good but we got to first win against the Jets who just came off a big win who’s going to be looking to fight for their coaches job…and we just scored 0 for four quarters against the Buffalo Bills which I understand they have a good front four but i think they only won like 4 or 5 games this season so we need to really step it up on offense we need to wake up seriously are Defense is doing their job we need to stop lieving them out to dry and play some good football on offense and less wake up and let’s try to win one for the fans..so if we do get past the Jets then all we really need is the Ravens to lose and we’re going to the playoffs and yeah we going against the Bengals but we beat them before so I believe we can do it again as far as Peyton we’ll we will cross that bridge when we get there…..

the weakest link on that defense Is phillip wheeler he has been terrible all season. if you want to stop the run the line holds the front and the linebackers step and make the play. He is never is in position and seems to always go the wrong way. watch Zach Thomas highlights he reads the offense and steps in to the hole to make the tackles. I do not blame our dline as much as I blame our linebackers not being quick enough to read the run. please santa all I want for Christmas is for wheeler to be traded and a new linebacker. if you get around to 4 oline who can block their way out of a paper bag. Thank you. As much as you let me down fins. I will always love this team. Kind of like being a cubs fan. Always next year.

I dont understand either. Tannehill was a reciever so he can damn well be a mobile QB. He just drops back and freezes. The need to roll him out and get him moving. The O line can be responsible for some of the sacks, but Tannehill cant avoid pressure. He just stands there. RUN RYAN RUN!! Get on the move and sling that damn thing. Lets go MIAMI!!

Last year we made it into the playoff picture until week 16. At the very least we are in the playoff talk until week 17. Between our record improving, and our chances at the playoffs improving later into the season I think we can all understand the progress we are making. This past week was just one awful game, I was there and it was awful. This week we will beat the Jets, the Ravens will lose and who cares what the Chargers do because we will be celebrating way too hard at that point. Go Dolphins.

Losing at the very end of a game does not mean it was a bad game. The bills game this week was the only real bad game we had. The saints dominated us but other then that we lost a lot of close games and won a lot of close games. We consistently play to the level of our opponents and that needs improvement. If you look at the overall picture we are improving and will be in the playoffs this year. Then anything can happen. I thought this was a fan page now wonder the stadium is always empty.

I just don’t understand if Ravens/Chargers/& Dolphins win how do the Dolphins make the playoffs? I thought head to head was the 1st scenario not by conference record-Baltimore being the only team that beat Dolphins head to head? Not arguing but that’s what the article says! If so Go Chargers & Just hope Miami beats Jets who will be playing for a W not for draft picks! Rex Ryans Job on the line maybe regardless win or lose…so Miami Dolphins better bring their A game & better find a way to RUN the ball & protect the QB who should be RUNNING we win when he moves now hes hurt no chance & especially with Shermans terrible play calling! Cum on MAN!!

I’m on my wife’s FB but everybody is slamming my miami dolphins I know they need a new OC and new O LINE but if we can beat the jets and the ravens lose we are in this thing . I mean everybody has a bad game some more worse than others but its just one game it doesn’t dictate our season and COME ON GUYS it’s the MIAMI DOLPHINS we are talking about here everybody knew we would only get in the hardest way possible . I am a HUGE FINFAN and I want to win now and we can , we will make it to the playoffs and then anything can happen . So everybody just calm down and KEEP THE PHINS UP GO BENGALS BEAT EM RAVENS GO CHARGERS BEAT EM CHEIFS AND MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL GOOOO DOLPHINS BEAT EM JETS !!!!!!!

no offense what so ever need to be consistent, same saga every year, how about another deep threat reciever and power fast running back, with an offensive line as well as another pass rusher the opposing quaterbacks have had all day to throw

I am a BIG Dolphin fan since 72 but what I saw yesterday was brutal and out of the four teams alive in my onion the Chargers want and need to get in the 6th seed, by no doubt It would be great to see my Phins to be in the playoffs but to have a post season, I fee the Chargers have in them to take it all the way, especially the way they beat the Broncos, lets be honest do we see the Dolphins going all the way?? out of the four teams the Chargers are hungry and probably is the best out of the four teams… What do you all think??

‘DaPhins!’ played like a bunch of sissies at Boooffalo. I can understand a bad day but, losing to Buffalo twice is unacceptable. Especially considering the implications. What’s even worse is that Mike Sherman had absolutely no answers for the Jill’s pass rush. Not one screenpass or roll-out play.That man needs to be run out of town. I’m Dolphins fan, through and through but, at this point, ‘DaPhins!’ in the playoffs would be a wasted game.

we either go 1 and 1 with the jets and bills this year we are going 0 and 2 with the bills and 2and 0 with the jets pick your heads up people with that and that pounding the chiefs are going to get we don’t even have to worry about Baltimore kicking 12 field goals to beat the bengals

Ireland should be fired anyway Dion Jordan over an offensive lineman and then he rarely plays good use of moving up in the draft it doesn’t matter if dolphins make playoffs they are to inconsistent and there o line sucks. they will b 1 and done anyway how do you go to buffalo and lose like that for the sweep Dolphins got lucky few times this year they are not that good 8-8 9-7 is hardly good on the nfl and the play calling is terrible

You forgot the last scenerio… If Dolfins lose (likely- they couldn’t even get past the Bills, Baltimore loses (good luck getting past the Bengals) and Chargers win (they beat them in their house already), then the Chargers go to the playoffs!

Kansas didn’t look good today and have lost 3 of last 5, so san diego can beat them at home, and although they wont want to lose at home, they must be made to play at the same time as us to keep them honest if the going gets tough. but in truth, based on todays ravens and bengals scores, I’d be pretty disappointed if the ravens somehow won that 1. just beat the jets

I was so frustrated earlyer after watching the miami vs bills game. Dispite all this we are still alive thanks too the Pats no less. Just get in, anything can happen after that, the steelers and giants have proved that in recent years. It seems hopeless after getting embarrassed but still.

I know the fins have it in ’em! EVERYONE knows it. Wallace needs to take the hits, our RB (Tohmas) needs to go to the outside more often, and Tannehill needs to THROW THE BALL and if not, they said that he played a few years as WR back at Texas A&M, so lets see what he could do in that position.

3 out of 4 options to make 6th seed, so I suggest this team just win and the rest will come together. I am disgusted by the lack of effort yesterday no one and I mean no one showed up worse of all the OL WO’s who could catch a cold yesterday,

I just don’t get why they don’t ever run a play where Ryan rolls out to pass. I mean the whole team deserves a kick in the ass because no one stepped up but the offensive coordinator and Philbin get the thumbs down for that.

Scenario 1-4 doesn’t mean a dang thing if we cant pass protect. Today was a dose of reality, the Fins may very well end up 9-7 and with the way they were man handled up front today, that’s exactly what they are….

Conference record would only come into play if the 3 teams involved had the same record and never played each other. If the Ravens win we are out because they have the head to head. pretty simple really.

No, it makes no sense. How does conference record in scenario 1 get us to the playoffs and in scenario 2 it doesnt mean squat? In scenario one, Baltimore still holds the head to head advantage over us.