Well we were right partially. While this morning the complexion of the Transat AG2R La Mondiale looks very similar to yesterday's, in fact Armel Tripon and Franck le Gal on Gedimat did lose their lead yesterday to Jeanne Gregoire and Gerard Veniard on Banque Populaire, however in the early hours of this morning their westerly side of the race track came good again and by the 0800 sched they were back in first.

With the leaders now down at the latitude of Gibraltar, so over the last 24 hours the course of the boats has generally swung slightly east with the onset of the ridge, all the boats now to the east of the direct route to the waypoint gate to the northwest of the Canaries. This has seen the Gedimat and the westerly boats converge with the Banque Populaire-led trio including Cercle Verte and BritAir, so there is now 30 miles separating them laterally across the race course. Sam Davies and Romain Attanasio still remain out on a limb some 90 miles to the east of the Banque Pop group and we are liking where they are. The easterly group which were yesterday hugging the Portugese coast and have now passed Cape St Vincent Portugal's southwesternmost tip. However the boats taking this option - including several big names in the Figaro - may find they have lost out too much (they have some 150 miles to regain - and that is a lot in a Figaro) compared to the benefits, and possibly quite short lived benefits, they should begin to see this afternoon from stronger breeze on the east side of the course furthest away from the high. Looking at the European model forecast the easterly boats look set to be in the stronger breeze - 20 knots from the northeast - for about 12-24 hours before it fills in across the race course.

Gedimat still has 478 miles to reach the turning mark, which should see her rounding the gate late on Monday. By Monday morning, the breeze is 20 knots from the north while for the easterly boats the wind will be slightly more. Big call - we reckon Roman and Sam will be leading by tomorrow morning...

Franck le Gall on Gedimat (left above) this morning reported: "We made a long starboard gybe sailing not badly under autopilot. The leaders fell into a zone without wind and we regained miles. On board, we are recovering and are on form. This morning the wind should weaken: afterwards, it will get complicated, so it is necessary to reach the northeasterlies as fast as possible. But there are still many options ahead and conditions can change very quickly. Our primary goal was to be in good shape by La Palma, and it should be the case. On board, we took the maximum liquid and food which is necessary to keep you in a good mood - 25 days of food were planned for and in addition we have packets of rice and other things. The fruit stock is in tact. We haven't had much Serrano but it is vacuum packed. There is even fresh grated Parmesan - so we live well on board! We eat together and speak about strategy, techniques, etc. In terms of strategy we are always in agreement. The problem is that, after this experiment, where we have exchanged our 'secrets' Armel will be a frightening competitor… that will not be simple when we are back on our own boats!”

Bertrande de Broc reported from Cercle Verte: "We are slipping along quietly under a not very starry night. We have a light wind of 6 knots. With other boats alongside us it is stimulating. The day ahead does not seem very simple to me. The high pressure - it is necessary to leave it quickly and find the northeasterly wind as fast as possible. Anticyclonic bubbles? I have good and bad memories of them but the weather can quickly change. We have sailed well since the start and we hope that that will continue. There are good boats off Lisbon, so nothing is over. Admittedly, there is an advantage of being first to the Canaries but it won't be oveer then: the Atlantic is large! …”