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New Mexico: Here's the ~285,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county

2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

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Time: DHMS

Sat, 01/14/2017 - 3:35pm

In New Mexico, assuming 57,000 people enroll in private exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 25,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 260,000 enrolled in the ACA Medicaid expansion program, for a total of 285,000 residents kicked to the curb.

As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:

Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)

Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates. In Louisiana, I actually expect the number of exchange QHPs to drop by about 17% from last year, mainly due to cannibalization by the Medicaid expansion program of those in the 100-138% FPL income range.

Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums

Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies

Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies

Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.