This video that appeared online on December 10, 2018 shows an apparent failure of a missile launched from the Kapustin Yar test site. By the size of the fireball it seemed like a large missile, probably an ICBM. And indeed, the next day LiveJournal user e_maksimov (of the Burevestnik launch site at Novaya Zemlya fame) presented good evidence that it was a launch from the launch complex No. 107 of the Kapustin Yar test site. This made him to conclude that it was a failed launch of a Topol-E missile - a Topol ICBM modified to test payloads in launches from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan. Later, the same user found a NOTAM notice that supported his Topol-E hypothesis. (UPDATE: That NOTAM is for December 11-15, but there is an earlier one too.)

It all looks quite convincing to me, so the event should probably be counted as a Topol-E failure. These kind of launches (but not failures) have been, in fact, fairly common. The most recent one was about a year ago, in December 2017.

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December 2018 was the first time in a while when the Rocket Forces made no announcement of the missile launch plans for the upcoming year and said nothing about the number of missile launches conducted in the year that is...