Policy Evaluation

1. States with more gun control laws have lower levels of firearm homicide and firearm suicide.

Using state data from 2007-2010, we found that states with more key firearm laws had fewer firearm homicides and fewer firearm suicides, after controlling for poverty, unemployment, education, race and non-firearm violence-related deaths.

2. “Shall issue” laws have no significant effect on the overall homicide rate

We analyzed the effect on homicide of changes in state-level gun carrying laws using pooled cross-sectional time-series data for 50 states from 1979-1998. There was no statistically significant association between changes in concealed carry laws and state homicide rates. The finding was consistent across a variety of models.

We analyzed the effect on unintentional firearm fatalities to children of child access prevention (CAP) laws, which allow a firearm owner to be charged with a crime if a child gains access to an unsecured firearm, using pooled cross-sectional time series data for 50 states from 1979-2000. We found that states that enacted CAP laws–with felony rather than misdemeanor penalties– experienced grater subsequent declines in the rate of unintentional firearm deaths for children age 0 to 14 compared to states not enacting CAP laws.

6. The Brady Bill has major limitations in scope, monitoring and enforcement

One section of this chapter discusses the three aspects of regulation: the rules, monitoring of those rules, and punishments if the rules are not complied with. The Brady bill is discussed as an example of a law with major deficiencies in all three aspects.