I'm not convinced Utley and Howard will make a huge impact on this season either, mostly just cuz of the health concerns. They're 8.5 back now, but their pythag record is just 3.5 games worse than Atlanta and Washington. I personally don't expect Washington's insane pitching to hold up for the rest of the year, and their offense is terrible- significantly worse than Philly's. Atlanta's lineup is pretty impressive but they just lost their best pitcher for the rest of the year, and I'm not very confident in the rest of the rotation; Hanson as a number 1? Nah son nah. The Mets and especially the Marlins are a level below Philly imo, and I expect they'll both fall back to the cellar gradually. I think if Halladay comes back and pitches well, and perhaps if the team picks up another bullpen arm to go with Bastardo and Papsmear, then they've got as good a chance as anyone else to win the division. 8.5 is a long, long way to go, but three months is an eternity.

All that said, motherFUCK the Phillies, man.

I'm not sure the Mets and Marlins are worse than the Phillies. The Phillies aren't that great.

I'm not convinced Utley and Howard will make a huge impact on this season either, mostly just cuz of the health concerns. They're 8.5 back now, but their pythag record is just 3.5 games worse than Atlanta and Washington. I personally don't expect Washington's insane pitching to hold up for the rest of the year, and their offense is terrible- significantly worse than Philly's. Atlanta's lineup is pretty impressive but they just lost their best pitcher for the rest of the year, and I'm not very confident in the rest of the rotation; Hanson as a number 1? Nah son nah. The Mets and especially the Marlins are a level below Philly imo, and I expect they'll both fall back to the cellar gradually. I think if Halladay comes back and pitches well, and perhaps if the team picks up another bullpen arm to go with Bastardo and Papsmear, then they've got as good a chance as anyone else to win the division. 8.5 is a long, long way to go, but three months is an eternity.

All that said, motherFUCK the Phillies, man.

I'm not sure the Mets and Marlins are worse than the Phillies. The Phillies aren't that great.

Miami's run differential suggests that they are easily much worse. Only Houston and Colorado are worse run prevention teams and their offense is nearly as bad as Washington's. I really don't think the Marlins are nearly as talented as people think.

i think they can. once they get ellsbury and crawford back they'll have ross, kalish, nava, and podsednik to platoon in right field. sweeney has been really great this year though, hes a double machine. i think hes worth giving up to get something good in return. he is on the dl right now so it might be hard to trade him anyways.

Well I don't really know if Garza is worth that (but you're right they do have a crowd). Cubs won't take Youk for Garza though. Youk isn't the type of player they want or need in their rebuilding. If I were the Sox I'd target Dempster over Garza because he'll be cheaper.

dempster would be nice too. the crowd today was making it seem like it was his last game there today. he go a couple hits including a triple. it was a nice way to go out and will be weird not seeing him out there. gonna miss the guy but this is a business and hes just not performing to the level he needs to. middlebrooks is playing too well to be left out of the lineup. ive heard the white sox are a likely option.

Miami's run differential suggests that they are easily much worse. Only Houston and Colorado are worse run prevention teams and their offense is nearly as bad as Washington's. I really don't think the Marlins are nearly as talented as people think.

Yeah but that's only a half-season sample size. I still think their offense has more potential than Philadelphia or Washington. Philadelphia's offense is basically riding on Carlos Ruiz right now and I don't think he'll keep it up for the whole season.

The Marlins' pitching isn't necessarily terrible; their run prevention problems are probably more defensive. Not that that makes them not count, however.

Miami's run differential suggests that they are easily much worse. Only Houston and Colorado are worse run prevention teams and their offense is nearly as bad as Washington's. I really don't think the Marlins are nearly as talented as people think.

Yeah but that's only a half-season sample size. I still think their offense has more potential than Philadelphia or Washington. Philadelphia's offense is basically riding on Carlos Ruiz right now and I don't think he'll keep it up for the whole season.

The Marlins' pitching isn't necessarily terrible; their run prevention problems are probably more defensive. Not that that makes them not count, however.

Doesn't matter if it's only half a season sample size in this case as they've got a -64 differential. That's obscenely ugly and one of the worst in the majors (only the Cubs, San Diego, and Minnesota are worse). They'e out performed their pythagorean by 6 games. This suggests that they will need increased performance just to tread water. Miami's offense may have more talent than Phillies (although Miami's talent is grossly overrated) but they're an 80 wRC+ team right now on offense (only the Cubs and Pirates are worse) which suggests that their bad offensive performance this year is pretty well earned (and this is with pretty good health). Philly by contrast is 13 with a 97. Yes it is based to an extent on fluky performance from Ruiz but that's not everything and they're far more injured than the Marlins suggesting their performance will improve when they get bodies back. As you guessed Miami are butchers in the field. The Indians, Rockies, Mets, and Tigers are much worse but Miami is still bottom five. Their pitching is indeed top half with a 7.8 WAR but that's not a particularly elite profile and there are multiple reasons to suggest that they will not maintain this based on ousized performance by certain players. Their bullpen is pretty weak so virtually all of their value is coming from their starters. In contrast Philly has an 8.7 WAR which is good for 9th in the Majors and that's with Halladay missing significant time. Their starter WAR is 3rd in the majors although their bullpen has performed even worse than Miami (not helped by Manuel's terrible use patterns).

The Phillies have been outscored slightly but if you look at their performance and their underlying indicators they look much better than the Marlins. Yes it's only half a season but that's a pretty good basis to establish quality trends and given Miami's relative health and the Phillies lack of it I do not see the Marlins as doing anything.

Miami's run differential suggests that they are easily much worse. Only Houston and Colorado are worse run prevention teams and their offense is nearly as bad as Washington's. I really don't think the Marlins are nearly as talented as people think.

Yeah but that's only a half-season sample size. I still think their offense has more potential than Philadelphia or Washington. Philadelphia's offense is basically riding on Carlos Ruiz right now and I don't think he'll keep it up for the whole season.

The Marlins' pitching isn't necessarily terrible; their run prevention problems are probably more defensive. Not that that makes them not count, however.

Doesn't matter if it's only half a season sample size in this case as they've got a -64 differential. That's obscenely ugly and one of the worst in the majors (only the Cubs, San Diego, and Minnesota are worse). They'e out performed their pythagorean by 6 games. This suggests that they will need increased performance just to tread water. Miami's offense may have more talent than Phillies (although Miami's talent is grossly overrated) but they're an 80 wRC+ team right now on offense (only the Cubs and Pirates are worse) which suggests that their bad offensive performance this year is pretty well earned (and this is with pretty good health). Philly by contrast is 13 with a 97. Yes it is based to an extent on fluky performance from Ruiz but that's not everything and they're far more injured than the Marlins suggesting their performance will improve when they get bodies back. As you guessed Miami are butchers in the field. The Indians, Rockies, Mets, and Tigers are much worse but Miami is still bottom five. Their pitching is indeed top half with a 7.8 WAR but that's not a particularly elite profile and there are multiple reasons to suggest that they will not maintain this based on ousized performance by certain players. Their bullpen is pretty weak so virtually all of their value is coming from their starters. In contrast Philly has an 8.7 WAR which is good for 9th in the Majors and that's with Halladay missing significant time. Their starter WAR is 3rd in the majors although their bullpen has performed even worse than Miami (not helped by Manuel's terrible use patterns).

The Phillies have been outscored slightly but if you look at their performance and their underlying indicators they look much better than the Marlins. Yes it's only half a season but that's a pretty good basis to establish quality trends and given Miami's relative health and the Phillies lack of it I do not see the Marlins as doing anything.

It's funny how I'm the engineer and you're the one that worships advanced statistics. But anyhow, despite what the stats say, I'm pretty sure the Marlins are better on offense than the Phillies. Giancarlo Stanton, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is a better core lineup than Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Hunter Pence. The run differential is bad, but it looks less daunting when you consider the fact that almost the entire differential could be removed by ignoring seven games in June. Those are all losses, but I would bet if you removed their seven worst games and seven best games the differential would settle around more -20ish rather than -64.

Miami's run differential suggests that they are easily much worse. Only Houston and Colorado are worse run prevention teams and their offense is nearly as bad as Washington's. I really don't think the Marlins are nearly as talented as people think.

Yeah but that's only a half-season sample size. I still think their offense has more potential than Philadelphia or Washington. Philadelphia's offense is basically riding on Carlos Ruiz right now and I don't think he'll keep it up for the whole season.

The Marlins' pitching isn't necessarily terrible; their run prevention problems are probably more defensive. Not that that makes them not count, however.

Doesn't matter if it's only half a season sample size in this case as they've got a -64 differential. That's obscenely ugly and one of the worst in the majors (only the Cubs, San Diego, and Minnesota are worse). They'e out performed their pythagorean by 6 games. This suggests that they will need increased performance just to tread water. Miami's offense may have more talent than Phillies (although Miami's talent is grossly overrated) but they're an 80 wRC+ team right now on offense (only the Cubs and Pirates are worse) which suggests that their bad offensive performance this year is pretty well earned (and this is with pretty good health). Philly by contrast is 13 with a 97. Yes it is based to an extent on fluky performance from Ruiz but that's not everything and they're far more injured than the Marlins suggesting their performance will improve when they get bodies back. As you guessed Miami are butchers in the field. The Indians, Rockies, Mets, and Tigers are much worse but Miami is still bottom five. Their pitching is indeed top half with a 7.8 WAR but that's not a particularly elite profile and there are multiple reasons to suggest that they will not maintain this based on ousized performance by certain players. Their bullpen is pretty weak so virtually all of their value is coming from their starters. In contrast Philly has an 8.7 WAR which is good for 9th in the Majors and that's with Halladay missing significant time. Their starter WAR is 3rd in the majors although their bullpen has performed even worse than Miami (not helped by Manuel's terrible use patterns).

The Phillies have been outscored slightly but if you look at their performance and their underlying indicators they look much better than the Marlins. Yes it's only half a season but that's a pretty good basis to establish quality trends and given Miami's relative health and the Phillies lack of it I do not see the Marlins as doing anything.

It's funny how I'm the engineer and you're the one that worships advanced statistics. But anyhow, despite what the stats say, I'm pretty sure the Marlins are better on offense than the Phillies. Giancarlo Stanton, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is a better core lineup than Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Hunter Pence. The run differential is bad, but it looks less daunting when you consider the fact that almost the entire differential could be removed by ignoring seven games in June. Those are all losses, but I would bet if you removed their seven worst games and seven best games the differential would settle around more -20ish rather than -64.

And if you removed the four losses the Rangers suffered last year they would have won the World Series. BTW if you want to employ this approach I suggest you take out their 7 best games as well and actually analyze it. I did it for their five worst and five best and ended up moving their differential to -45. Taking another couple away would probably yield at best a -37. But we could do that for any team. History shows that run differential is a better predictor of future success than record. The Marlins have a shockingly large number of close wins and blowout losses and very few blowout wins. History tells us that teams with those profiles are likely to get worse absent some other mitigating factor. And even if they were only -20ish they'd still be worse than the Phillies with all of the bad Phillies losses. Why do you think what the Marlins have is a better basis for successful offense? Reyes has had unusual health the past couple of years but outside of a couple of years he's not a particularly great offensive player. Stanton has explosive power but is incredibly up and down as a player (the Rangers have a similar player in Nelson Cruz but he bats sixth in their lineup). Hanley has been a great hitter and he's still above average this year but is having his worst year. But aside from those four they've got absolute flotsam on offense. And it's still really interesting for me that you are discounting completely how injured Philly has been. Utley when ambulatory is better than any hitter on the Marlins. And you've not addressed the gigantic pitching talent advantage that Philly has (which using your own system one would ask why Philly wouldn't continue their advantage there).

And if you removed the four losses the Rangers suffered last year they would have won the World Series. BTW if you want to employ this approach I suggest you take out their 7 best games as well and actually analyze it. I did it for their five worst and five best and ended up moving their differential to -45. Taking another couple away would probably yield at best a -37. But we could do that for any team. History shows that run differential is a better predictor of future success than record. The Marlins have a shockingly large number of close wins and blowout losses and very few blowout wins. History tells us that teams with those profiles are likely to get worse absent some other mitigating factor. And even if they were only -20ish they'd still be worse than the Phillies with all of the bad Phillies losses. Why do you think what the Marlins have is a better basis for successful offense? Reyes has had unusual health the past couple of years but outside of a couple of years he's not a particularly great offensive player. Stanton has explosive power but is incredibly up and down as a player (the Rangers have a similar player in Nelson Cruz but he bats sixth in their lineup). Hanley has been a great hitter and he's still above average this year but is having his worst year. But aside from those four they've got absolute flotsam on offense. And it's still really interesting for me that you are discounting completely how injured Philly has been. Utley when ambulatory is better than any hitter on the Marlins. And you've not addressed the gigantic pitching talent advantage that Philly has (which using your own system one would ask why Philly wouldn't continue their advantage there).

The bold is just false. Maybe as a position player, but not as a hitter.

Also anyone can fluke their way to a World Series win so I don't think that's relevant.

I think the Marlins have a better offense because they're not old and decrepit. Why are you comparing them to the Rangers? The Phillies do have much better pitching, though; I'll admit that.

And if you removed the four losses the Rangers suffered last year they would have won the World Series. BTW if you want to employ this approach I suggest you take out their 7 best games as well and actually analyze it. I did it for their five worst and five best and ended up moving their differential to -45. Taking another couple away would probably yield at best a -37. But we could do that for any team. History shows that run differential is a better predictor of future success than record. The Marlins have a shockingly large number of close wins and blowout losses and very few blowout wins. History tells us that teams with those profiles are likely to get worse absent some other mitigating factor. And even if they were only -20ish they'd still be worse than the Phillies with all of the bad Phillies losses. Why do you think what the Marlins have is a better basis for successful offense? Reyes has had unusual health the past couple of years but outside of a couple of years he's not a particularly great offensive player. Stanton has explosive power but is incredibly up and down as a player (the Rangers have a similar player in Nelson Cruz but he bats sixth in their lineup). Hanley has been a great hitter and he's still above average this year but is having his worst year. But aside from those four they've got absolute flotsam on offense. And it's still really interesting for me that you are discounting completely how injured Philly has been. Utley when ambulatory is better than any hitter on the Marlins. And you've not addressed the gigantic pitching talent advantage that Philly has (which using your own system one would ask why Philly wouldn't continue their advantage there).

The bold is just false. Maybe as a position player, but not as a hitter.

Also anyone can fluke their way to a World Series win so I don't think that's relevant.

I think the Marlins have a better offense because they're not old and decrepit. Why are you comparing them to the Rangers? The Phillies do have much better pitching, though; I'll admit that.

Based on what do you think any Marlin hits any better than Utley? Utley is 3rd in WAR since he came into the league. He isn't as good in weighted runs created but he is within a comparable range of David Wright, Evan Longoria, Josh Hamilton, and Hanley Ramirez. However, Hanley had a career worst year last year (Utley had close to a career worst year but it was significantly better than Hanley's. Hanley is more likely to bounce back sure but it is unlikely that he's actually better than Utley. His performance this year is right around where Utley was last year. Worth noting is that none of the other Marlins hitters are within range of Utley's career averages in their careers. Reyes is significantly worse. His average is worse than Utley's down year last year. Stanton has put up comperable numbers to Utley's career and indeed has been better than Utley from last year (but not better than Utley from the year before). But he's playing to career norms already this year and the offense isn't great. Reyes is also playing to career norms. Hanley is below career norms. So again what is the basis for this great offense that Miami has? I don't disagree that Phillies offense isn't very good. Miami's offense just isn't very good either.

As for Utley, he's not the same player he used to be. His WAR last year was great, but that's because that factors in position and a .344 wOBA is great for a second-basemen right now. But offensively Stanton is up at a .378 wOBA and that's right around his career rate, so it would be reasonable for him to keep it up or surpass it on the second half of the season. Whereas for Utley he's coming off his 18125th injury in the past three seasons and is just as likely to land on the DL again as hit a home run.

As for Ramirez and Reyes, they've been around Utley's 2011 over the past few years so they're definitely capable of producing at the same level. They've both had down years so far.

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