Asia

Election results in India

A thumping

A GENERAL election is due in India by May next year, after two terms of rule by the Congress party. If that party’s leaders have any dream of getting back into office next year, time is desperately overdue for a rethink about its leaders, ideas and strategy. On December 8th results were published from elections for assemblies, and thus governments, in four states in north and central India. They look utterly disastrous for Congress—suggesting that Indian voters are fed up with paternalistic and corrupt politics, a slowing economy and weak leadership.

The broad sweep of the results is not especially surprising: the national opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), did well and Congress poorly. But it is the details, the humiliating extent of defeats for Congress and its leaders, along with signs of changing voter behaviour, that should provoke it to think hard about its prospects.

First, the outright good news for the BJP. The opposition expected to dislodge Congress from running Rajasthan, spurred by voters’ historical fondness for kicking out the incumbent. Some analysts had wondered whether Congress’s belated efforts to roll out welfare schemes in the state might have helped to protect against too bad a mauling. They did nothing of the sort. In fact the BJP proved extraordinarily successful. By Sunday evening the BJP had won in 162 seats out of a total of 200, to a dreadfully low tally of 21 for Congress.

Next door in BJP-run Madhya Pradesh, the margin of victory was similarly hefty. The state’s chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is a moderate, centrist figure whom some suggest could one day lead the BJP nationally, if there were ever a vacancy. His state’s development record is strong, and his electoral record is similarly impressive. Having completed almost two terms, he is now set for a third, with the party ahead in 164 seats to just 59 for Congress, out of a total of 230.

Nearby in Delhi the BJP would have romped to power easily, too, as support for Congress collapsed to a humiliatingly low level. Congress and its chief minister, Sheila Dikshit, had been in charge of the national capital region (in effect a state) since 1998, but they managed to win just eight seats (out of 70), far behind the BJP’s 31 seats. The wrinkle for the BJP: a brand-new anti-graft movement, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), formed a year ago, has made an astonishingly successful breakthrough, winning in 28 constituencies, including one that forced the defeat of Mrs Dikshit. For Arvind Kejriwal, who leads the AAP, this success will encourage his dream of taking the party national in time for the general election. And it confirms that urban, educated voters are sick of the corruption and complacency associated with Congress. As for who will run the show in Delhi’s state government, much looks uncertain. Possibly Congress would want to back an AAP administration, to keep out the BJP, but the AAP has indicated that it would refuse its support, preferring to sit in opposition and await the next elections.

The fourth state, Chhattisgarh, also brought victory for the incumbent BJP, though not overwhelmingly. The BJP’s 49 seats to Congress’s 39 (from a total of 90) leaves no doubt that the BJP will rule, but it raises questions about what voters want. Chhattisgarh’s two-term chief minister, Raman Singh, will presumably get back into office. But his strategy of seeking popularity by improving state distribution of government food rations—an approach more often associated with Congress—did not bring huge voter enthusiasm. Just possibly, too, Congress got a boost in response to an attack by Maoist insurgents in May that killed 29 people, most of the leadership of the party in the state.

Results are due from one more election in tiny (and politically almost irrelevant) Mizoram, in India’s north-east. The BJP did not contest there, though Congress may hope at least for a token win. That aside, three related questions now loom: do the state elections offer useful guidance to the national vote that is coming? Do they offer information about what motivates India’s voters? And is it now more likely that Narendra Modi, the BJP’s leader, will be India’s next prime minister?

The answer in each case is yes. State elections are far from simple guides to the national mood. Famously the BJP did well in the same set of state polls in 2003 when it was in power nationally. Then its prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, felt emboldened enough to call a general election six months early, in 2004, which the BJP went on to lose. The national defeat had much to do with the BJP’s mistakes in dealing with coalition partners, which could be a problem again in 2014.

Nonetheless as a measure of public disgust with Congress, among states that collectively are home to some 185m people, the latest election results suggest a strong urge to kick out the government of Manmohan Singh. The Congress strategy, of promoting a rights-based approach to welfare—with schemes to deliver rations of grains to two-thirds of Indians, or a guarantee of low-paid rural work for poorer households, for example—appears to have little or no traction. Given an economy that is growing at less than 5% a year, and which failed to create many jobs even when it raced at nearly 10%, voters are in a surly mood. Nobody looks at all impressed by Rahul Gandhi, Congress’s scion and emerging new leader. In one rally in Delhi, even Congress members streamed away from the venue as the young leader gave a lacklustre speech. He may struggle to assert his authority among party colleagues who have witnessed him preside over a string of election defeats in various states.

For voters’ intentions, it is difficult to distinguish local worries from national ones. But voters’ behaviour in Delhi, for example, could prove relevant for other cities. Urban, wealthier, better-educated voters look entirely disenchanted with Congress, disgusted by corruption and scandal, and also by the indecision and weak leadership of the government and party. The tremendous success of Mr Kejriwal’s AAP, which demands cleaner rule along with some populist measures, such as cheaper electricity, suggests younger voters are ready to drop the traditional loyalties of older generations. The AAP has no basis in identity politics, meaning it does not promote the interests of any particular caste, religion or social group, though it is broadly from an anti-graft movement that was predominantly urban and middle class. It promotes a set of values, notably against corruption, that could trouble the BJP as well as Congress. Many in India’s growing urban areas—plus those in rural spots with television, mobile phones and family members who work in cities—will relish the chance to kick out the most obviously corrupt of whatever party.

Last, the results give a tremendous boost to Mr Modi, the BJP’s candidate to be prime minister. He was active in much of the BJP campaigning in the four states, and probably helped to lift turnout, enthusiasm and attendance at rallies. Given public frustration with the mild leadership of the sitting prime minister, a strongman like Mr Modi makes an appealing contrast. He has been able to personalise the electoral campaign, with his supporters donning Modi facemasks, and an army of online followers avidly promoting him as if India were set to hold a presidential election, not a parliamentary one. He is sure to claim credit for the BJP’s success, seeking strong momentum for the national polls next year.

In particular, the rush of success for the BJP under Mr Modi suggests that many Indian voters do not consider him to be toxic as a leader, despite his role as chief minister in allowing massacres in Gujarat, early in 2002, when more than 1,000 people died, most of them Muslims. He will argue that voters—well beyond Gujarat—are unconcerned about any past record of communal violence, and are untroubled by his reputation as a Hindutva (Hindu-nationalist) leader. Instead they appear swept up by a message that India can develop its economy faster, and so meet the aspirations of voters quicker, under him than under Congress. Expect to hear much more about that in the coming five months.

Dear Sir,
Let me point out one fact to you that I'm sure you are unaware of, Nelson Mandela and his ANC party were until 2008 on the U.S terrorist list, and the ANC has still not been fully removed. Thus the less said about the U.S and its track record the better.

Sorry, but supporting separatism is treason. Supporting the breakup of your country is against the constitution. As far as I'm concerned, AAP has nothing positive to offer, and they are only a bunch of political jokers without any positive ideas. That you claim them to be better than the Congress is a sign of how low things have fallen. Even idiot "economists" like Amartya Sen have long supported the Congress Party even while claiming to criticize corruption. Sorry, but you can't run with hares and hunt with the hounds. It is the Congress and other Left-wing parties who have destroyed the nation with decades of Left-wing policies, and AAP is no less Left-wing than them. In India, it's always a choice between Left and Leftier (aka. Dumb and Dumber).

If you want to reform Left-corroded India, then you need to elect a non-Left party. Trying to cure Left-wing decay with more Leftism is like trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it.

Adding to my previous comment, the best decision that AAP has taken so far is to not play a role or stake any claim to for a government. The BJP and Congress would have joined hands to ensure that any such Government would find it impossible to work and some of the goodwill would have been lost as a result of no progress.

i dont believe that the state elections reflect the mood of the country well as far as mr modi is concerned no doubt that he is a clever and a much more powerful leader than rahul gandhi and if congress wants to come back to power in the next general elections which i really doubt they want too then mrs sonia gandhi has to step in otherwise we can see a hung assembly in lok sabha too

Am I missing something? Mr. Modi had no reputation before the riots happened. His reputation soared and is now national only because by his omission (incompetence?) or commission the Gujarat riots happened.

Every put down of Mr. Modi does not require that it come with a disclaimer about the 1984 riots does it?

Yes the Congress leaders who led the rioters during the 1984 riots deserve to rot in jail. And by the same token, you must agree, so must Mr. Modi?

While most of your comment is great, I would have to disagree with the percentage of Hindu population; surely it is more than 35-40% like you stated! It is indeed true that all Indian political parties are communal in some way or other.

" And it confirms that urban, educated voters are sick of the corruption and complacency associated with Congress."

Alas, if only the alternative was any better. Whether BJP under Mr. Modi will improve the overall situation remains to be seen. The BJP government's track record in Karnataka is the worst in a long time. Corruption is rampant at all levels of government.

Congress has faults but it is not anti Muslim but Modi has proved by his actions, by using state of Gujrat to kill thousands of Muslims in a single night that he is capable of things that Congress cannot even think about. In his many statements after the Gujrat massacre, Modi showed his naked hatred for Muslims. A future India with Modi as its head will be a terrifying place for Indian Muslims.

I agree. My problem with the BJP is that it is openly communal. Parties like the Congress that profess secularism but aren't really still have a reputation to live up to which translates to some action however meager. Thankfully some Muslims are starting to look beyond the Congress. And the AAP gives some of us Hindus who have no love for the Congress but aren't xenophobes either an option beyond comical ones like the CPI or the SP.

My friend, media is so powerful that it can portrait anything about anyone and we tend to trust them, suppress actual news and hype fake news. I sure you are not from Gujarat. I am just trying to provide you evidence of actual incidents and how its projected, if you have time kindly go through this portal: http://guruprasad.net/posts/modi-phenomenon-propaganda-or-reality/

Now you will know what is the fact, all references are given. Humble request to be fair and square when judging anyone and not with pre-assumptions.

The only way of forming a government was to team up with the Congress which would not be a very cosy or desirable relationship. Any government formed by AAP would also face Republican style torpedos and finding functioning in such an environment impossible. As it is, no one wants power in this hung assembly and fresh elections are inevitable. While I can see what you’re getting at and it does make some sense, I think that this is the best course that they could have taken.

And please do not compare Kejriwal with Mayawati untill he starts building towering statues of himself.