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COUNTERFACTUALS are impossible, but occasionally we get close enough to have a peek at what could have been.

A transfer to Maryam would be wrong.

Not this way, not at this time, not as the coronation she seems to be seeking and her father seems willing to bestow.

Disagreeable as dynastic politics is, it’s a fact of political life and there’s a way to go about it.

The Sharifs aren’t going about it the right way. That’s blindingly obvious. But there’s a deeper, more uncomfortable question:

Has the anti-democratic interference created a scenario that democratic politics may have forestalled?

Or to put it another way, if it weren’t for Panama being used as a wedge to get Nawaz out, would the PML-N have figured out a better, more orderly succession?

A succession that would have given Shahbaz his turn and allowed Hamza and Maryam to fight for eventual power after party or ministerial stints to prove who deserves it more.

Essentially, could the PML-N have done better — produced a result more favourable to democracy — if it hadn’t been artificially forced into a succession crisis?

Let’s turn to history a bit.

Once upon a time, there was a would-be amirul momineen. Everyone knows the legend of what Nawaz attempted, the abortive 15th Amendment.

Could the PML-N have done better if it hadn’t been artificially forced into a succession crisis?

First, the background. From a report at the time by the excellent chronicler of our miserable history, Zahid Hussain:

“What appears to have pushed Sharif along this dangerous path was the fact that his country was on the brink of bankruptcy. Sectarian strife, especially in Sindh, was again getting out of control.

“Also Sharif, his aides say, felt his government was sinking after the recent US strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan, when he was caught between trying to appease both the Taliban and the US.”

Classic bait-and-switch.

But there was a problem. The infamous heavy mandate had given Nawaz a clean path through the National Assembly, a two-thirds majority easily assembled with the help of sundry independents.

The problem was in the Senate.

Again from Zahid Hussain at the time:

“With his coalition partners pulling out, Sharif may find it difficult to push the bill through parliament. Although his party with the help of independents can muster a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, it does not enjoy similar support in the Senate.

“It has 44 members in the Senate out of a total 87 and needs 15 more to get the bill passed. The government has also hinted at holding a referendum if it fails to get the bill passed by parliament.”

Faced with a defiant Senate, Nawaz tried bullying and hectoring. The Senate didn’t budge. But there was another option: the next round of Senate elections, in 2000.

While he couldn’t get the Senate to yield in 1998, Nawaz knew the next round of Senate elections in 2000 would give him significantly better numbers in the Senate.

Now to the counterfactual.

The Musharraf coup disrupted all of Nawaz’s plans. Gone forever was the dream of amirul momineen.

But the coup also robbed us of the possibility, the opportunity even, to watch Nawaz defied by democracy and maybe even his own party.

Because there was deep unease not just in the Senate generally but inside the PML-N too about what Nawaz was attempting.

The easy vote in the National Assembly made clear there were plenty of enablers, ready and willing to give Nawaz what he wanted to align themselves with power.

But there were also conscientious objectors. And the more Nawaz pushed, the more likely opposition to the 15th Amendment would have coalesced.

An all-powerful prime minister suffering a defeat in parliament partly because of his own party members could have been a significant democratic moment.

We never got that moment because of engineered circumstances.

Now again we are at an artificial moment. The ouster of Nawaz has forced choices that otherwise would have been delayed.

Without the ouster, the path ahead was relatively clear. Nawaz would have led the party into the next election and Shahbaz would be negotiating with his elder brother for a post-election role, assuming the N-League won again.

And Maryam would probably have made her political debut as a member of the parliamentary class of 2018, having a full parliamentary term to learn the ropes and make a case for succession.

Instead, it’s all been scrambled and driven the N-League to the verge of a split because of an accelerated, artificial ascent to power.

An ascent that the N-League itself may have blocked if Maryam’s parliamentary and political path created enough doubts about her suitability for the role.

That she isn’t ready is plain to see.

But the artificial crisis has turned what could have been a question of competence into one of loyalty. You really can’t best a daughter in the loyalty stakes.

There is, though, a final irony. By roping her into the artificial crisis, it has given Maryam a potential path to political legitimacy that she otherwise could not have dreamed of.

Assume the accountability case ends up in a conviction for both father and daughter.

Sending Maryam to jail would rocket-boost her political stature in a way that a dozen years of ministerial or party experience would not.

It would paper over every other shortcoming and inadequacy. No one would be able to challenge what could otherwise have been patent nonsense.

So even if she loses out to her uncle and cousin in this round, the artificial crisis may end up vaulting her right past them.

Comments (44) Closed

Well, a conviction over fraud and forgery is different than usual political cases which raises the stature of any politico. If party goes to SS, very hard for MNS to get it back again after conviction

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Salman

Nov 05, 2017 07:36am

What good is being sky rocketed when you have to sit in jail for a minimum of 7 years. Maryam ain't no Mendela!

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ali

Nov 05, 2017 07:54am

The people of Pakistan have rejected her already.

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Israr

Nov 05, 2017 08:14am

By hypothesising that Maryam will come out a potent politician after a stint in jail, the writer has assumed the Sharifs have the patience and the vision to bide several years of adversity to come back and stake claims. They would rather upset all political order to save themselves and then do all sorts of compromises to make a shortcut return. This happened in 1999 but, no, not this time.

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Radhid

Nov 05, 2017 09:20am

Writer used to produce good balanced articles but no more now. Another piece of article making no sense.

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Suleman

Nov 05, 2017 09:25am

I am at loss. How was Panama used to get Nawaz out? It is the ex-PM who bought the apartments in London and now cannot explain where the money came from. He is responsible for his own predicament.

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Larkanavi

Nov 05, 2017 10:11am

If Maryam is jailed then forget about her benefiting politically. In this age of social media and internet , anyone who thinks that a few years from now the people of Pakistan, especially the young and educated class, will be stupid enough to elect a convicted politician is living in fools paradise, to say the least.

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wellwisher

Nov 05, 2017 10:39am

this chess game is difficult to understand

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A Mir

Nov 05, 2017 11:14am

Generals mafia would achieve what they they
hated through their naivity

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DIGGER DOWN UNDER

Nov 05, 2017 11:45am

As a politician Nawaz Sharif is a genius. He has a vision, for himself and his dear ones. And he is capable of going to any length to ahieve that vision. I admire Cyril Almeida for his eagle eye. Pakistan needs him.

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Muneer

Nov 05, 2017 12:11pm

Maryam will not lose out to uncle and cousin in the current round,it is against her personality traits in my opinion.The internal situation of the family has the potential to shred away the Party which is most likely. Fast forward beyond the current scenario to 5 years,based on the legacy / political thinking of Nawaz - Maryam and that of Shahbaz - Hamza ,the later duo has potentially more chances to succeed politically than the former.

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alba

Nov 05, 2017 12:25pm

Mayam is obsessed with garnering attention. Not only is she is too self-centered to be prime minister if she does run for the office it will cost the PML-N the election. Even the PLM-N party faithful will never accept her. It will divide the party into the Shabaz faction and the Nawaz faction. There willl be a PML-N and a PML-S.

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Mustafa

Nov 05, 2017 12:28pm

Yeah if it’s jail for even a few years they will run this family Cannot face jail we have seen that...it’s exile and denial of facts

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MS

Nov 05, 2017 12:31pm

First and foremost she should get her self cleared from courts, then only talk about legecy if any.

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Guest67

Nov 05, 2017 12:42pm

Yup , Pakistani Politics create Hero Out of Legal tangles " Accusation , trial , Conviction , jail or Gallows " Voila the new Bonaparte ( less riding a tank) comes roaring in ... has been the case since the nation came into being and will not be surprised to see this time A HEROIN created ( once again )

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mariam

Nov 05, 2017 01:40pm

I don't see any good in the lady nor her circumstances.
To earn the respect of a leader she will need to prove her capability anyways... with or without jail

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Nisar Ahmad

Nov 05, 2017 01:47pm

Good analysis. It has pained anti NS group without realizing realities on ground and politics in Pakistan.

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Irfan_Sydney

Nov 05, 2017 01:51pm

It is becoming obvious day by day that Maryam will become Pakistan's PM after the next general election. Her enchanting personality has already made quite a lot of people her fan. I wish her good luck.

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Rashad

Nov 05, 2017 01:52pm

The idea that had nawaz been allowed to Complete his 1998 stint as Amirul momineen and his own party would've thrown him out becuase our democratic powers and parliament is so "mature" and "conscientious" is totally absurd. If anything our parliament is full nepotism and families showering other families with seats. That's all. It's just money and power being divided. And yes no one in parliament cares if an amendment is for the betterment of people or not. As long as it serves their purpose and let's them keep their so called MNA status. That's the unfortunate truth. Do not expect the system will fix anything which is rigged beyond fixing. People have honest leaders to choose but they still won't becuase they can't.

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AW

Nov 05, 2017 01:59pm

Maryam Nawaz is the only person in the entire PML-N who has clearly demonstrated leadership skills during the last 2 year period. She is a great and clear communicator. She is a leader of new generation with better ideas than the old guard. The PML-N would be wise to choose her as its next parliamentary leader.

@alba - That's the reality. She thinks she is BB but BB didn't think she was some kind of 'royalty'. And BB listened and respected others point of view; Maryam is the exact opposite! No wonder people are getting sick and tired of family rule!

So, Panama is just a "wedge" being used "to get Nawaz out"? As though SC has nothing better to do and was waiting for that wedge to come out of nowhere. There was no corruption then as Qatri letter amply proves it?

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Ranjha

Nov 05, 2017 03:17pm

The stories from La La Land continue...Cuckoo, cuckoo!!!

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Miqbal rangoonwala

Nov 05, 2017 03:19pm

Master of corruption, fake documents to supreme Court

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Amir Rana

Nov 05, 2017 04:59pm

Humdrum, objectively narrated.

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Dawn

Nov 05, 2017 06:34pm

Khuda ke lye...pick leaders who have some formal education.

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Ayaz mirza

Nov 05, 2017 06:47pm

I agree , she got a chance.

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Anwar Qureshi

Nov 05, 2017 06:48pm

So even if she loses out to her uncle and cousin in this round, the artificial crisis may end up vaulting her right past them but ending and landing in Adiala Jail and barred for any public office once she is convicted by the Accountability Court - end of her political career.

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AMIR

Nov 05, 2017 07:57pm

Neither Nawaz, Shahbaz, Hamza nor Maryam are acceptable as they are all massively corrupt. Recall Hamza's statement 'corruption hota hai'!! Maryam is vicious and such persons should not be allowed into positions of leadership and power which they will definitely misuse as the Sharifs and Zardaris (very shrewdly and subtly) have been doing all along.

Isn't it obvious why the Sharifs have always pushed 'infrastructure' projects? Procurement of cement and steel from family and 'chamcha' owned companies at prices surely double or triple of prevailing market prices and prompt payments for the supplies !! An audit by an unpurchasable independent firm should be conducted to verify this.

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Khurram

Nov 05, 2017 10:12pm

What a country, where conviction for fraud and punishment for the criminal activity can equal to rocket boosting ones stature.

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Adnan

Nov 05, 2017 11:12pm

Assume she goes to jail and also let’s assume after that a proper democratic and judicial process takes place and put her family into more trouble then what? All your assumptions are based on her coming back in 10 years and claiming her Thorne but what if reality is they all are exposed and there is not point of return then what happens ...

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Parvez

Nov 05, 2017 11:43pm

Interesting.....very interesting.....and pretty logical too.

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Imad Qureshi

Nov 05, 2017 11:53pm

If she is convicted of fraud, forgery, and money laundering by a court of law, then she isn't going to be eligible for election unless there is another NRO. If we get a direct coup which after few years results in an NRO, then may be she would be eligible. That being said, is the princess capable of spending time in jail? She is no Benzir Bhutto, so I think no.

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Riaz Ahmed

Nov 06, 2017 12:01am

If past is any guide this family of royals doesn't have guts of last mughal emperors or even PPP or other ploitical leaders who preferred to rot in jail instead of luxury life with 100 cooks...Butts of Lahore are class who prefers world comforts they can't last even 10 days that her crying father did

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Harris Mustafa

Nov 06, 2017 01:41am

Sir you have missed your true calling: that of a superb fiction writer. All these ifs and buts in your writing are very much like the meteorologists who say “it would have been sunny had it not been overcast”.

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saira

Nov 06, 2017 04:01am

we cannot translate the current scenario a replica of 90s. Mindset of the nation is changed. people now prioritise their needs and requirements, gone or the days of heroism and stardom. Media , communication, access to information, internal and external geo political shifts have changed the out look of educated class. Today the voter is more conscious and ready to bargain. The slogan of Roti kapra aur makaan has to be translated into reality . People of 70s to 90s were relatively innocent and simple. Today an average Pakistani is very smart. "THEY NEED TO SHIFT THEIR PARADIGM" Things have changed a lot

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Roshan Ali

Nov 06, 2017 04:24am

We are the only nation in the world where a criminal can be awarded with the highest parliamentary position .

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Illawarrrior

Nov 06, 2017 04:43am

Going to jail boosts political stature? How does that work? In most countries, being sent to prison, ends all political aspirations.

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Imran

Nov 06, 2017 06:50am

where is Pakistan as a state in all this family Drama?

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LAHORI KID

Nov 06, 2017 08:06am

I only have one question, since I really don't care what happens to Mariam or Hamza, my question is, With the PML-N in crisis, will it bring relief to the people of Pakistan?

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Ahsan Gul

Nov 06, 2017 09:15am

Let us not jump the wagon. The wind in Islamic world is changing with the KSA's anti corruption policy. Pakistan hopefully will be following them.
NS and current government are corrupt. Bottom line Shriefs may be doing time.

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Fareed N

Nov 06, 2017 11:47am

Nawaz Sharif , Ameer ul Momineens, a joke deserving place in Guiness book of records.

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Naveed

Nov 07, 2017 09:56am

Yes we already have a precedent in the form of Mr. Zardari becoming the Head of State after his term in jail.