Since the election results for the five-states have come out most of us (with the possible exception of Yogendra Yadav) have been busy wiping the egg off of our faces, given the fact that almost nobody was able to predict the outcomes correctly. What most “pro-BJP” commentators have since started doing (this one included) is thinking about what the BJP should be doing in the future.

This post of mine adds to the cacophony, but it only shows that many of us seem to care for the BJP, much more than what the BJP ostensibly seems to care for itself!

The possible reasons for the fact that except for Goa the BJP has got no good news in this election has been analysed enough and I am not proposing to add to that. Here is what I think are the lessons that BJP should draw and implement few far-reaching changes.

I. Pre-declared leaders are a “Must”!

Election after election, the one clear message that is coming out is that voters like to know who they are voting for, and prefer to vote for a pre-declared leader (our elections are becoming increasingly “Presidential” in nature).

Unidentifiable concept of “collective leadership” doesn’t work (Congress and BJP in UP, “collective opposition” in Manipur, Congress in Goa, etc.)

II. Support your leader fully and declare leadership well in advance!

It’s clear that Khanduri, Uma and Amrinder Singh were declared as leaders too late in the game for voters to believe that the Party supported them fully. Apparently, Khanduri had informed the BJP Central leadership that Nishank was sabotaging his election (unconfirmed), but nothing was done, and the results are in front of all to see. Nishank should be suspended from the BJP, if this is true, and they want a future in Uttarakhand.

It is pretty obvious that the BJP central leadership is playing games with Modi and does not support him fully, but have given him a free hand in Gujarat. The difference in percentage of seats won in Assembly and LS elections in Gujarat makes it clear that the voters understand this.

The BJP has lost the ability to trust and support its leaders fully, given the vicious media campaign mounted against it and leaves them to their own devices. Yeddy and Modi are obvious examples, but so is Manohar Parrikar (they abandoned him when there were unsubstantiated corruption charges levelled against him on some FTII event). The BJP needs to trust and defend its leaders better. They still don’t know how to handle Yeddy and are likely to lose Karnataka this way.

III. Leadership claims can only come based on support from the People

For too long has the BJP allowed itself to be led by “root-less” wonders claiming some god-given right to lead the party on the basis of performance in Parliamentary debates and the daily media circus (also known as “debates”). While giving a lucid and eloquent speech is important, it does not by itself bestow leadership qualities. Leadership and thereby claims in the Prime Ministerial sweepstakes, has to come based on support from the people (by winning in elections) and administrative acumen (running a state, even if a small state). IN my view, the CM of Goa has greater ability to lead India, than a Rajya Sabha worthy.

The highest decision making body of the BJP therefore must consist primarily of the CMs & Dy CMs of the states in which it rules, Leaders of Opposition from the Assemblies where it doesn’t rule, the LOP from LS and RS, and the Party President. No RS types should be allowed to stake claim over party or national leadership, except through demonstrated support from the people and administrative acumen.

This creates obvious issues for a set of people in the BJP who are currently derisively called the D-4 (the Delhi 4). If Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj hold Prime Ministerial ambitions, I’m sorry but their claims have to pass the two standards mentioned above. Which means not only does Arun Jaitley have to fight elections, but both of them need to demonstrate administrative acumen (the mess in DDCA doesn’t give confidence on AJ). Let Arunji and Sushmaji make the BJP win in Delhi and Haryana respectively, become CM’s, show growth and development, and then stake their claim to PM’ship. If they can’t, then they are not fit to be considered.

Since Ananth Kumar and Venkaiah Naidu are clearly well past their “sell-by” dates, I am not commenting on them. They should cool their heels in the RS. Despite all my respect for Advaniji, since the people rejected his Prime Ministerial bid in 2009, he should follow his “original instinct” and retire from active politics. Gadkari has a long way to go, first become an MP and then demonstrate leadership in Maharashtra. I’m sorry but one Mumbai-Pune Expressway project in itself does not make you fit to be PM.

IV. Managing dissidence is becoming extremely important

Seat distribution is becoming a key issue where wrong selections can create a plethora of party-hoppers who think they can win that seat. BJP has historically managed this process better that the other parties, but it is not enough. Times have changed and something radical needs to be done.

The best judges of who is best suited to represent the party in that constituency are “local-level” leaders who have fought elections for the party in the past in that constituency.

Using simple mobile-phone based voting technology, create collegiums of local leaders who have been party candidates in the past for any level of election in that constituency (Corporation/Panchayat, Assembly or LS) and let them vote from amongst all the aspirants for that seat. Have a final run-off between the top two, so that the selected candidate has more than 50% of the votes to represent the party. The candidate thus selected will have the support of the entire party in the local-level and everyone will work collectively towards victory. There will be no dissidence!

V. Managing the negative fallout of the media is becoming crucial

It’s no secret that large parts of primarily the “English Language Media” are overtly sympathetic towards the Congress and virulently against the BJP. The latest example being the virtual blanking out of Yeddy’s acquittal on corruption charges, when they were primarily responsible for creating the hyperbolic atmosphere which led to his ouster based on a flawed Lokayukta report (hope Team Anna is observing the potential for political manipulation.

If one can’t change the media, one has to start following the Narendra Modi example of ignoring the mainstream media (MSM) and going directly to the people using social media. He has almost created a template for what a BJP leader should be doing to by-pass the MSM and making them redundant to ones political career. No other BJP CM seems to have picked this up adequately, despite the excellent job that some of them seem to be doing in their states. This has to be mandated by the party centrally.

Having said that, the need for the creation of a balanced right-wing media (both electronic and print) cannot be denied. There is no reason why say something like Pioneer cannot be converted into a “national media” house, with a hugely expanded national footprint and maybe acquiring a loss-making TV news channel like NewsX. The templates provided by LSTV and RSTV are also very interesting and a state assembly channel in each of the BJP/NDA ruled states can be explored.

VI. Provide a stamp of commonality in each BJP/NDA ruled state

From various reports and surveys it is becoming pretty obvious to the country that a BJP/NDA ruled state is on average doing better than Non-NDA states (Congress or otherwise) on most parameters. However, each BJP state is not doing as well as all the other states.

Every state has got its own areas of strength and achievements and special schemes. So while MP has its “Ladli Lakshmi” scheme, Gujarat has e-Governance (besides many other areas), Chhattisgarh has PDS reforms and HP has power reforms. The BJP/NDA head must precipitate a quarterly meeting of CMs of all NDA-ruled states and get them to share their experiences and insights, which should be replicated across all states.

A tentative attempt was made in this but it has not got institutionalized. The “force-multiplier effect of an initiative like this is not being understood by the NDA.

VII. Grow the NDA alliance

It has become obvious that the current size of the NDA is too limited (only Shiv Sena and Akali Dal are long term stable allies, and RPI being the only new recent entrant). Most analysts think that the JD (U) will sooner or later do a BJD on the BJP (although I am not too convinced about this), and continues to rattle the BJP all the time. The alliance with HVP and AJSU/JMM needs to be cemented further (by giving more visibility and importance to their leaders).

Without additional allies, the BJP can kiss its 2014 dreams goodbye. However, the situation doesn’t look all that bad for it, but needs some sustained effort. The ADMK and MNS are almost sure-fire future allies (but will come only if Modi is the PM candidate). The AGP and Sangma are potential allies that need to be cultivated from now only. If the BJP could just focus on the NE states, it can actually strike roots there (why have they not made a big thing about winning their first seat in Manipur?).

Someone like Advani needs to be put full-time in-charge of re-building the NDA coalition and he might be surprisingly successful, provided he mentally accepts that his time to be gunning for the PM’s seat is over.

VIII. Declare the PM Candidate now!

If there is one lesson that the BJP needs to learn is to pull together under a declared leader and put a process in place for selecting that leader. Many analysts believe (this one included) that the next LS elections will happen this year, rather than in 2014. The recent statements by TMC and the disastrous results in the recently concluded elections for Congress only reconfirm this suspicion. There is even a possibility that UPA2 could fail in getting the budget passed and could fall as early as March/April (although unlikely). The BJP doesn’t have much time to get its act together.

The nearly 200-member national executive of the BJP should be a good enough collegium to elect its prime Ministerial candidate. Allow anyone who thinks that they are capable to become the PM candidate to throw their hat into the ring (I can think of Modi, Jaitley, Swaraj, Yashwant Sinha and why not even the “fragile-ego’ed” Rajnath Singh).

Let them submit their Vision for the country and let the national executive vote for who they think should be the BJP’s PM candidate. Since it affects them also, please allow a few select senior party office bearers of NDA allies to also vote. Conduct a run-off between the winner and runner-up, and then you would have a PM candidate endorsed collectively. Anyone who doesn’t accept this decision (Nitish Kumar included) should be thrown out of the BJP/NDA (whatever the cost). While I think that Modi will win such an election hands-down, it could even be close between say Sushma Swaraj and Modi (who knows).

Once a PM candidate has been selected, give that person full freedom to plan and run the campaign as that person deems fit. The entire party leadership should align behind that person. This will not only give this person the moral authority to lead, but also effectively crush any dissidence, as the decision would have been taken democratically.

congrats foir great initiative..
blogging is the way to go to bring about change in politics and twitter is the spark but blogging is the kerosene/wood.lets go about and blog in detail and to conclusion each heading you have mentioned in detail..that would ensure all things that need to be modified in this article.
let us also give out info that each has on each of these topics..and lets keep things simple,to the point,with facts and no blames.also lets do the japanese way..each 1 gives view for and against a topic..so that 360covered and at the end foolproof conclusion can be made about each heading that is mentioned in the article.
by @straighthindu:disqus

http://twitter.com/Chin_T Chinmay

The way people diss BJP leaders other than Narendra Modi talks volumes about their attitude towards the party they claim to support. While the writer has done serious and appreciable efforts to show concern towards BJP’s future prospects, this piece has some uncomfortable ideas.

UP results have not gone in BJP’s favour and given that Modi did not campaign there, it has given a new vigour to critics for calling Delhi leadership rootless and what not. It is naive to call Arun Jaitley a “rootless wonder” just because he has not contested a LS election. The statesman in him has come to BJP’s rescue more than once. Somebody please go and ask Modi who was the strategist for Gujarat assembly elections and by-polls. If you are talking of mess in DDCA to question the administrator in Jaitley then you also must look at the irregularities in other sports bodies like All India Tennis Association and of course, Gujarat Cricket Association. Lets judge politicians by their political credentials only.
And lets not bring in Manohar Parrikar here to sheild the so-called victims of top BJP leadership’s indifferent approach for its state leaders. Parrikar has followed his party orders always, even when he was not at fault, while his fellow CMs refused to do that and put their personal issues & rivalries ahead of BJP’s interests.

Yes, Sushma Swaraj has not won Harayana for BJP, the state from where she was an MLA. But she has won more elections than the men against whom she is being pitched for the top post. I am not saying that she is more capable than all of them or she must be the PM candidate. Only point is give her the due for what she is.
I don’t want to say anything about Ananth Kumar or Rajnath Singh but when it comes to Gadkari, he has never said that he will run for PM candidature. Please don’t discredit that selfless and sincere party worker of what he has done as BJP National President, as BJP Maharashtra President and as MH PWD Minister. He has done much more than the Expressway.

Well written piece, nevertheless. But it could have been done even without wrongly showing flaws in leaders and by just suggesting the road ahead.

http://twitter.com/Rightwingdian Rightwingdian

Fair enough criticism, Chinmay, whcih I aprreciate. There were some limitations of space for me to be able to verbalize all possible caveats against criticism, like my respect for Arunji and Sushmaji, etc., and their basic capabilities. When i used the term “rootless wonders”, I did not only mean Arunji, although I must confess, I did mean him also.

I grant that Sushmaji has won huge number of elections, and that Arunji was a very good Law Minister, even tho he has not fought elections. My limited point is this, in my view, being a Minister is very different from being the PM (MMS was a very good FM, but a disastrous PM). I think that a potential PM candidate must demonstrate a “mass-base” and adminsitrative acumen (leadership, whcih can normally be only demonstrated as a CM, and sometimes even otherwise). I will leave it to other readers to comment and judge, whether Arunji and Sushmaji measure up “well-nough” on this yardstick.

I think NG has done a great job as President of BJP. However, has he also demonstrated his capabilities in the above two aras, I doubt it, despite being a good Minister in Maharashtra (the point about Mumba-Pune highway was toungue-in-cheek). besides Modi, I think there are other leaders in BJP who have demontrated this, e.g. Yashwant Sinha, and I am increasaingly impressed with Sushil Modi (the Modi similarity being incidental).

On NaMo not visiting UP, I frankly think that him not campaigning in UP this time round has helped, as it would have consolodated the Muslims in fav of SP further (which still happened nevertheless). I dont defend everything that Modi does, but I do feel that BJP needs to get its act together.

A lot of us are very frustrated that BJP doesnt seem to realize its own importance.

http://twitter.com/AnshumanSunny Anshuman Kumar

correctly pointed out ..NaMo Too was more known fr his soundbytes than any real acumen till he was para-dropped in gujarat n the he fought n won his first election thanks to his party nt his ability.

Namo towers todays everybody else cuz..he was given an opportunity n he didnt fritter that away..

that does not make people who still haven’t got that opportunity as useless.

http://twitter.com/AnshumanSunny Anshuman Kumar

n talking about Sushma Swaraj ..please do consider..in what situation she was brought in as CM of Delhi n she did nt have any riots to leverage it to return to power.n then show her skills as an administrator.

http://twitter.com/straighthindu straighthindu

agree with you on many/most points.. if any1 believes conspiracy theories,then they can alway blog with facts and logic to show hhole world how conspiracy was done by x and y . point is it must contain facts.
arunjaitley also played his part in charming klumaraswamy of jds to form govt with bjp.arunjaitly when given full freedom ensured bjp formed its own first govt in south in karntk.
yet i think bjps highest decission making body can get stronger with more people from people from all sections of society..nothing wrong in increasing its numbers.

http://twitter.com/straighthindu straighthindu

all the above headings need to be discussed to the full..and let us use twitter or this site or the above discussion
few questions i start with
1.declaring a leader b4 elections can become a disadvantage as people from other castes will/may not vote for bjp and instead think on lines of ok bjp is not going to make our castemen as cm..so lets vote for other party sothat atleast our caste does have a chance of becoming cm.. this danger is the most in states where 2 dominant castes are trying their best to make their casteman as cm. whereas
in 2007 projecting bsy for karntk helped as certain no of lingayats voted for bjp because their caste person will be the cm..and hence voteshare increased and so bsy brought those type of votes to bjp which had its own loyal votebase.and so bjp won just enough seats for govt along with independents.at 2007 it was best to project bsy as cm .but point is shd we always predeclare the leader..are we sure that predeclaring does mutliply infighting among cm hopefuls and their respective supporters.those left out may also not show much interest in campaigning etc..
so lets take all these and continue the thought of predeclare or not..

http://twitter.com/Rightwingdian Rightwingdian

Pre-declaring by “selection” and pre-declaring by “election” are two very different things my friend.

Also, beyond a limit, BJP has to go beyond “Caste” arithmetic. It has to capture the nationalist vote, which is “caste-neutral”. No one should and does ask about castes of Modi, Yashwant Sinha, Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Dhumal, Parrikar or Khanduri.

http://twitter.com/straighthindu straighthindu

whether WE pre-declare by electing or we pre-declare by selecting,the points mentioned by me remain same as its partymen who voted/pre-elected the candidates and not by a NORMAL common man.
1>pre-declaring by election where electing power is given to few thousands may lead to agressive wooing of those who have powers to elect the candidate,which in turn may add to infighting . and that leads to corruption most of the times.also pre-declaring candidates seems a lot riskier where division of votes may infact push the better person to go to no3 and hence loose ticket.2>also more importantnly,predeclaring by election does not give any opportunity for data crunchers and their theories. i believe in numbers,if it is done with good efforts and good intentions.may be this idea needs to pushed/analysed further..lets see what others have in mind on this idea.. creative idea though.

yes,bjp needs to go beyong caste arithmetic.but has the common man gone beyond caste ?if the common man still votes on caste lines and if we ignore it to some extent,would not bjp get hurt by that extent also?.to what extent are we prepared?
then issue turns into. LIMIT. that limit is point of contention.
are we ignoring the ground realities and trying to push our opinions wrt growing out of caste very quickly ?
point to be pondered ::has (unlike national parties)giving appropriate share to all castes added to these regional parties strengh (btw, most of these regional parties are invariably headed by stronger castes of those states,coincidence? and working strategy?) or are these parties giving more importance to the common man of those states than national parties?which of these is true and where

does a nationalist have any other choice ,practically,other than bjp/nda?no.

asking qustions helps identifying mistakes in thought/assumptions and it helps in leading to best conclusions..so i am doing this on caste factor now..
1>how much was nitishs wooing mbc and pasmanda muslims a factor in his win?

2>are we sure that dhumal,parikkar,khanduri did not get their castemens vote to the party and to themselves? most imp,did it not have good impact on their fortunes.
if it did,then how much is it? should we factor it or not while taking decisions related to other states? if yes,by how much?
POINT IS limit..
more imp each state is different wrt demographics.,%hold of minorities,
(minorities always help casteism by giving votes in exchange for appeasement)

do we factor in all these in our decision making and is it on right lines?

what if pre-elected/selected cm does not achieve as much as modi when elected and him being from a caste with lesser numbers becomes a hindrance in next elections? what if some new regional party makes a big benefit out of this and starts pushing bjp in that state ?

lets see what others have to say on this..
good initiative and good selection of topics..great work.

to all,
i am here for only good nice talk which can push the topics to conclusion .
pls no name calling/blaming..lets keep the issue in mind.let talk on matter.
i am sure u agree 100% .

http://twitter.com/vschanna VADIRAJ C S

Over all a pragmatic recipe for BJP to gear up for 2014. The key element in the scheme should be “Decisive and Pre-declared” PM Candidate. A section of the BJP leadership seems to have fallen prey to the “Media and left-liberal” propaganda that, Modi as a PM candidate can mar BJP’s chances. They need to call this bluff and support Modi openly instead of being defensive.

baptys

Well written article.,& appropriate. IN ONE LINE WITHOUT BEATING ABOUT THE BUSH “MAY I HUMBLY & IN THE SOLE INTEREST OF INDIA, SAY WE HAVE THE BEST MAN FOR THE NEXT 10 TO 15 YRS & ITS SHRI NARENDRA MODI. THIS IS NO REFLECTION ON OTHER NAMES ,YET THE WILL POWER, THE AKAND VISION, NO HANGUPS ,SINCE NO FAMILY,INDIA IS HIS FAMILY ,ALL THAT ONE WANTS IN A LEADER LIKE LEE KUAN YEW WAS FOR S”PORE IS THERE IN MODIJI. INSPITE OF CONTINUOUS BASHING FOR 11YRS BY ONE & ALL WITHOUT FLINCHING HE HAS TAKEN GUJARAT & WITH THAT NAME OF INDIA VERY HIGH. MADE FRIENDS WITH KESHUBHAI (A STRONG MAN OF PATEL CASTE) & HAS COMPLETELY BROUGHT ALL CASTE, CREEDS, RELIGIONS INCLUDING MUSLIMS IN GUJ TO HIS SIDE. ALL THESE ARE TREMENDOUS ASSETS. HE IS A LEADER OF “INCORRUPTIBLE & IMPECCABLE CHARACTER” WHO HAS HIS EYES,EARS,& SOUL VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND.TREMENDOUS ORGANISER.TOP /DOWN & DOWN / TO TOP.SEE HOW HE HANDLED KUTCH EARTH .QUAKE DISASTER. IN ALL PARAMETERS HIS STATE IS FAR AHEAD, CLEAN STATE, & IS FAST HEADING TO BE LIKE A STRONG CHINA PROVONCE OR TAIWAN OR KOREA. I THINK HE & ARUNJI GET ON VERY WELL, SO TO OTHERS LIKE SUHMAJI GADKARI & OFCOURSE ADVANIJI.,(WHOSE MAIN TASK SHLD BE TO BRING CRUICIAL NDA PARTNERS TO GETHER.) LETS UNDERSTAND 5OR 6 ALLIES LEADERS ARE NOT THE VOTERS, ITS THE MASSES OF INDIA.AS IT HAPPENED FOR LAST 10 TO 15YRS IN U.P.FRANKLY BJP LOST U.P SINCE ABOUT 12 -13YRS RAJNATH, LALJI TANDON, KALRAJ, SHAHI WERE ALL SLEEPING, NOW THEY ARE OVER THE HILL. SO EXPECTING GADKARI OR DROPPING MODIJI IN U.P ELECTION IS ASKING FOR TOO MUCH. MY FRIENDS PL IMAGINE IF GUJARAT FOR ITS ECONOMIC & OTHER PROGRESS WAS A STATE WITHE EVEN 50 LOK SABHA SEATS, MODIJIS IMPORTANCE WOULD BE TOTALLY DIFF.MOST UNFORTUNATE THAT THIS U.P STATE IN A MOST LOPSIDED MANNER HAS 😯 SEATS & IS AMONG THE MOST BACKWARD. ALL THIS MODIJIM WILL RECTIFY.
PL MARK MY WORDS “IF GOD WILLING HE BECOMES INDIAS P.M, WHICH I AM CONFIDENT HE WILL, HE WILL BECOME A GREAT LEADER OF THIS PART OF THE WORLD., WELL RESPECTED BY CHINA & USA ALSO APART FROM U.K FRANCE ETC.JAY JAY BHARATMATA,JAY JAY INDIA.–BJP USE THE GREAT DIAMOND EMERALD YOU HAVE VERY SENSIBLY, ITS A MAKE OR BREAK FOR INDIA. THANK YOU.

vivek singh

and so many things more! its actually very difficult to manage a herculean political party like the BJP n i am sure the think-tanks knows it all (of what is mentioned here) too add to it, i think BJP suffers from complacency n self-congratulatory tendencies! it has dismissed north east for way too long! allies are shy of the party n there is almost no-consensus on leadership! its often free-for-all.. this confuses the average voters who looks for alternatives n doesn’t get that in BJP! n no, BJP didn’t win any seat from manipur.. they lost a couple of them by narrow margins but didn’t win!

http://twitter.com/DrSatyaSaraswat Satya Saraswat

A very succinct summary of what ails BJP at present along with the possible way-out for the party. One thing is clear that a lot of in-depth analysis has gone in writing this article. Hopefully it catches the eye of those for whom it is written.