While everyone else sat in the sunshine during Poland’s extended May holiday, the liberal Nowoczesna (Modern) party went skiing.

After a week that saw the departure of three prominent legislators, including founder and former leader Ryszard Petru, the release today of an IBRIS poll conducted over the weekend will not have steadied nerves. While all single polls are subject to the usual caveats, and 2.9% is at the lower end of the margin of error on earlier Nowoczesna polls, the direction of travel is consistent with recent tendencies.

The pooled polls model puts Nowoczesna right on the electoral threshold, with a probability of 0.54 that it is over the threshold (0 meaning not over; 1 meaning definitely over).

If we assume that Nowoczesna is over the threshold, and that constituency-level support for the party is much the same as it was at the last election, then it would currently have 7 seats in the Sejm, 21 fewer than it gained in 2015.

The map of support for Nowoczesna shows that it would have two seats in the Warsaw metropolitan constituency, but otherwise would be limited to single seats.

The consolation is that one of these seats borders the Nowy Sącz constituency, which incorporates the Tatra mountains. Handy for some skiing.