Tanzania set to miss all MDG targets by 2015

Tanzania and Burundi lag behind their fellow East African Community member states in meeting the ambitious millennium development goals.

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According to a report prepared by a Washington Think Tank, the two countries are the region's laggards in achieving the MDGs targets by 2015.

Though Tanzania has a higher score than Burundi, the document entitled &#8216;Who are the MDG trailblazers? A new MDG Progress Index' expresses disappointment on the former, saying its high ratings in institutional performance, has not been replicated on MDGs.

"In fact, Tanzania's performance is below the required achievement trajectory for every indicator examined," said one of the researchers Ben Leo.

The researchers allocated Tanzania a low progress score of 1.0, having none of the eight measured indicators above the trajectory threshold.

The country is, however, on the right track on primary education completion and reduction in child mortality rate, having achieved almost 50 percent of the required trajectory.

Burundi, unlike Tanzania, which has suffered years of instability, was expected to have a low progress index. The small country was allocated a score of 0.5, having made gains only on education of boys and girls.

The report which was released ahead of the UN's MDG review summit, scheduled for September 20 to 22 this month, at the UN headquarters.

The summit is also expected determine whether more resources should to be allocated in the remaining five years to help poor countries meet the ambitious targets.

Already UN secretary general, Ban Ki Moon, has appointed a team to review each of the member country progress.

The document cites Uganda as the top &#8216;MDG trailblazer' in the region, saying the landlocked country has made tremendous progress on majority of the indicators.

"Africa accounts for four of the 15 countries ranked as "trailblazers," on track to reach at least half of the examined MDG indicators by the 2015 target year. They are Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi and Uganda," said Leo.

The researchers from Centre for Global Development allocated Uganda a progress index score of 5.0, having recorded four indicators above the trajectory threshold.

The four indicators are poverty reduction, ratio of girls and boys in primary and secondary education, HIV/Aids prevalence rate and access to improved water source. The country is also making commendable progress on prevalence of under-nourished and maternal mortality ratio.
Kenya's performance, on the other hand, is considered average with a score of 3.0. The two indicators above the trajectory threshold in the country are poverty reduction and primary education completion rate. Progress is also being made on the girls: boys ratio in primary and secondary education and access to safe water sources.

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Rwanda, like Kenya, has a progress index of 3.0, with two indicators above the trajectory threshold. They are girls: boys ratio in primary and secondary education and reduction in HIV/Aids prevalence rate. The country also has achieved at least 50 percent of the target in reducing child and maternal mortality.

Recognizing that conflict-torn countries account for most of the "MDG laggards," the centre identified Tanzania, also considered the most stable in the region, as "perhaps the most surprising and interesting case".

It is not known why Tanzania is unlikely to meet any of the eight development goals by the 2015 target date.

"I haven't delved into individual country cases," Leo said, adding the report was meant as a board assessment of progress as well as a critique of the methodology used by the UN in establishing the goals.

The document says the UN chosen base line for measuring progress "sets up sub-Saharan Africa for failure - even if countries make significant progress."

The decision to designate 1990 as the starting point for measuring gains, the researchers argued, always led to distorted evaluations.

The researchers said the decade between 1990 and 2000, many African countries registered minimal economic growth until recently, a trend that had the potential of distorting progress reviews.

According to the report, East Asia and Latin America has greatest percentage of countries on the right track with 36 and 33 percent respectively.

The top MDG progress performers are Honduras with a score of 7.0, Kyrgyz Republic (6.0), Vietnam (6.0), Laos (6.0) and Cambodia (6.0).

In Africa the top performers are Ethiopia with an index performance of 5.5, Burkina Faso (5.5), Ghana (5.0), Malawi (5.0) and Uganda (5.0).

The lowest performers are Guinea Bissau with an index of 0.0, Afghanistan (0.0), Congo-DRC (0.5) and Burundi (0.5). Others are Papua New Guinea (1.0), Tanzania (1.0) and Zimbabwe (1.0).