SportsLine’s Top Weekend Picks: Can Georgia Beat Alabama This Time?

Tom Herman teams have been incredible ATS as underdogs during his coaching career, but there’s one thing they’ve never done before: played the same team as an underdog twice in the same season. Texas won the first matchup 48-45, but if not for three Oklahoma turnovers in that game, the outcome would have been a lot different. I expect the Oklahoma offense to do a much better job taking care of the ball in this game, and it will show in the final score.

Make no mistake, this is a battle between two heavyweights that won’t be the typical Crimson Tide blowout. With that said, the Bulldogs front seven hasn’t been lights out this year. They’re tied for next-to-last in the SEC in sacks and last in tackles for loss. Because of that, the Crimson Tide will wear them down with the stable of running backs led by Damien Harris, pull away late and squeak out a cover in the SEC Championship Game.

Suddenly, the Browns have become road warriors. Fresh off their first outright road win in three seasons, they travel again to face the NFL’s hottest team. However, Houston is stepping out of a Monday nighter, which makes No. 9 in a row straight-up no sure thing. The Texans are just 2-3 ATS at home. Cleveland owns a modest two-game streak straight-up. Its previous two outcomes — losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City — were respectable. Maybe QB Baker Mayfield can imagine Hue Jackson as a coach on the Texans staff.

Kirk Cousins is coming off only his third turnover-free game, a win over the Packers in which he also used his running ability — finally. Just as important, the Vikings’ defense is rounding into late-season form. They give up 3.7 yards per carry and won’t let Sony Michel run wild. While the Patriots are 5-0 at home and deservedly favored here, this is too many points. Even if New England goes up double digits, the back door will be open for Cousins and co. Grab the points.

Chargers RB Melvin Gordon is out for this game, but they’ll be just fine with Austin Ekeler getting most of the carries. He’s got 763 total yards already this season and is part of the reason why the Chargers average 153 yards per game on the road, which has equated to a 4-1 SU and ATS road record. Good running teams always travel well. Meanwhile, the Steelers have looked sluggish their last two games, and the running game has been stale in their last three, with James Conner looking worn down — just 143 yards. Chargers get the win, but taking the +3.5 is the way to go.