Wheat exports to rise despite lower yields

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Australian wheat exports are tipped to rise to record levels in
the 2004/05 financial year despite a fall in production, the
country's chief commodities forecaster said today.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
(ABARE) said world wheat production was expected to hit a record
617 million tonnes in 2004/05 despite lower production levels in
Australia and the United States.

The expected rise in world production was tipped to push world
wheat prices down by about six per cent to $US150 a tonne.

With the Australian wheat harvest well under way, production was
expected to fall 19 per cent to 20.2 million tonnes, ABARE
said.

The fall reflected an expectation of yields returning to more
average levels and the continuation of the drought, it said.

However, after record production levels in 2003/04, Australian
exports were forecast to leap 17 per cent to a record 17.8 million
tonnes

But the higher Australian dollar would hit prices paid to
Australian farmers, with export earnings forecast to fall to around
$3.87 billion from $3.5 billion last year.

ABARE said Australian wheat exports to Iraq remained strong,
with half a million tonnes shipped in the September quarter.

Meanwhile, exports of coarse grains such as barley would rise
three per cent to six million tonnes despite an expected fall in
production.

But export earnings would drop eight per cent to $1.24
billion.

ABARE said coarse grain exports from Australia in 2004 had been
affected by subsoil moisture and drought.

Production was expected to fall 21 per cent to 10.3 million
tonnes, slightly below the average 10.7 million tonnes over the
five years to 2003/04.

The production of barley, of which Australia is the world's
biggest exporter, was tipped to slump 28 per cent to 6.2 million
tonnes.

Australia's canola exports were also forecast to drop 22 per
cent to one million tonnes with a fall in domestic production.

However, export earnings from canola were tipped to rise two per
cent to $462 million.