000
FXUS63 KEAX 171722
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017
.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CDT THU AUG 17 2017
Rest of the Work Week (Today through Friday Night):
This morning, showers and thunderstorms are exiting the CWA. The
cold front that was the catalyst for these storms is extending along
a Unionville to MCI like as of 3AM. This front will clear through
the CWA around sunrise ushering in a much more comfortable day.
Conditions will be much less humid with dewpoints falling into the
upper 50 and lower 60s this afternoon and highs in the low to mid
80s. Tonight a quick move surface ridge of high pressure will
move through the area allowing temperatures to fall into the upper
50s and lower 60s. However, Friday morning, a upper level
shortwave will be moving from the northern Plains into the
Midwest. Storms are expected to develop along a surface trough
associated with the upper shortwave overnight Thursday and then
sag towards northwest Missouri/northeastern Kansas Friday morning.
These storms will be weakening as they do however, the
northwestern CWA mat see a few showers or isolated thunderstorms
early in the day. The surface trough will move into northern
Missouri during the late afternoon/evening and storms are again
expected to develop along it. 0-6KM shear around 40kts, steep
lapse rates, and forecast instability between 2000-2500J/Kg would
support strong to isolated severe storms with strong to damaging
winds and, marginally severe hail the main threats generally along
and west of I-35. The surface trough will then push southeast
through the CWA Friday night bringing the chance for sub-severe
storms to the rest of the CWA.
The Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night):
The weekend looks to remain dry with a warming trend. On
Saturday surface high pressure will move into the area in the wake
of the departing trough. This will lead to mostly sunny skies and
near normal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday upper level
ridging will begin to build over much of the southeastern and south
central CONUS. Couple that with a return to southerly flow and highs
will rise into the uppers 80s to near 90.
The Eclipse (Monday) : SEE BELOW
Beyond the Eclipse (Tuesday to Wednesday):
Tuesday a upper level shortwave trough will move through the Great
Lakes suppressing the upper ridge southward across the area. this
will allow an associated cold front to sink into the area and bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms. Highs Tuesday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue through Wednesday as the surface boundary will stall
across the region. Highs Wednesday will be cooler in the low to mid
80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high
pressure remains in control of the local weather pattern. NW winds
of 10-15 mph this afternoon will weaken this evening due to
nocturnal cooling. Midlevel clouds will be on the increase
tomorrow morning as a weak storm system approaches, however any
shwr activity should be in a weakening state which precludes
mention for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...73
Aviation...32