market is (almost) always wrong

To the 99% of the ETers who are still looking for the holy grail.. here it is.

Where is value? There is no way for the market to know exactly where value is as a collective whole, there are billions of a-holes in the world just as there are billions of opinions in the market.

So, you've got a few scenarios -

1. volatility is low, the crowd generally has an idea where value is, the time of mean reversion, difficult trading environment

2. volatility is medium to high, the crowd has no idea where the value is, they over shoot to one extreme, reverse, hesitate, over shoot to the other extreme, repeats over and over and over... good crowd participation, ideal environment to trade.

3. volatility is extremely high - the crowd actually knows the value is far away! everybody tries to go thru the door at the same time, spreads very high. tradeable maybe, but takes adjustment on size and stops/targets.

All behaviors are right there on the screen.... it's like playing poker on a table with a billion seats... look at the cards they play.... the holy grail is right there in front of you.