Easily without a doubt one of the hardest Oscars to predict. And while I had A TIME with all of the non-acting categories, the race that I’ll be losing sleep over and sweating until that envelope is opened (and confirmed by a second party) is Best Picture. For the longest time I was predicting Get Out, but I don’t think it has the numbers for an upset. Moonlight was the alternate last year, but Get Out is in contention with several alternates that have more support overall. I have settled on two scenarios. First, it goes home empty-handed and cements its legacy as the film of 2017. Second and what I’m predicting is that it gets its win for writing and also cements its legacy as the film of 2017 that happens to be an Oscar winner. I am going with Three Billboards and I’m disgusted. With Get Out, it has passion that I think will do well on this ballot. I don’t think they paid the “backlash” any mind. I equate it to the election. There were people on the low who voted for Trump (I’ll never forget I saw during coverage of that night one lady talking about how she couldn’t put her Trump signs on her lawn b/c she was a business owner, but was happy as a deplorable in shit that her on the low vote ended up counting) and will do it here. I also don’t think The Shape of Water has passion even with its PGA win. And predicting three films to tie as the most awarded of the night is/feels wrong, so there’s that to stay up at night/wait until envelopes are opened and verified.

Easily without a doubt one of the hardest Oscars to predict. And while I had A TIME with all of the non-acting categories, the race that I’ll be losing sleep over and sweating until that envelope is opened (and confirmed by a second party) is Best Picture. For the longest time I was predicting Get Out, but I don’t think it has the numbers for an upset. Moonlight was the alternate last year, but Get Out is in contention with several alternates that have more support overall. I have settled on two scenarios. First, it goes home empty-handed and cements its legacy as the film of 2017. Second and what I’m predicting is that it gets its win for writing and also cements its legacy as the film of 2017 that happens to be an Oscar winner. I am going with Three Billboards and I’m disgusted. With Get Out, it has passion that I think will do well on this ballot. I don’t think they paid the “backlash” any mind. I equate it to the election. There were people on the low who voted for Trump (I’ll never forget I saw during coverage of that night one lady talking about how she couldn’t put her Trump signs on her lawn b/c she was a business owner, but was happy as a deplorable in shit that her on the low vote ended up counting) and will do it here. I also don’t think The Shape of Water has passion even with its PGA win. And predicting three films to tie as the most awarded of the night is/feels wrong, so there’s that to stay up at night/wait until envelopes are opened and verified.

I just switched to The Shape of Water for Picture and Original Screenplay because it seems to have the most passion overall. McDonagh’s Directing snub never did sit right with me, even as confident as I briefly felt after Three Billboards cleaned up at Bafta. I know TSOW was snubbed for SAG Ensemble, but it still managed to get 3 acting nominations at the Oscars. With the Oscars specifically, The Shape of Water is the only film that isn’t missing something. Three Billboards isn’t in Directing, and both Get Out and Lady Bird were snubbed for Film Editing. Plus, look at Birdman a few years ago, where even when people predicted it to win Picture and Director many were still convinced The Grand Budapest Hotel would win for Screenplay, but nope! I think whatever wins Picture wins Screenplay this year, as has been the case every year from Crash to the present, with the sole exception of the silent film The Artist. IF you predict TB to take Picture, then you should probably predict it for Screenplay to, since it already beat Get Out and TSOW for writing at Bafta, just for consistency’s sake.

I am currently not predicting Goldderby’s frontrunner in 7 categories (Picture, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Documentary Feature, Animated Short, and Live Action Short) and am seriously thinking about switching over from “Remember Me” to “This Is Me” for Song. Is going against the predicted winner in 8 or 7 categories too many?

Easily without a doubt one of the hardest Oscars to predict. And while I had A TIME with all of the non-acting categories, the race that I’ll be losing sleep over and sweating until that envelope is opened (and confirmed by a second party) is Best Picture. For the longest time I was predicting Get Out, but I don’t think it has the numbers for an upset. Moonlight was the alternate last year, but Get Out is in contention with several alternates that have more support overall. I have settled on two scenarios. First, it goes home empty-handed and cements its legacy as the film of 2017. Second and what I’m predicting is that it gets its win for writing and also cements its legacy as the film of 2017 that happens to be an Oscar winner. I am going with Three Billboards and I’m disgusted. With Get Out, it has passion that I think will do well on this ballot. I don’t think they paid the “backlash” any mind. I equate it to the election. There were people on the low who voted for Trump (I’ll never forget I saw during coverage of that night one lady talking about how she couldn’t put her Trump signs on her lawn b/c she was a business owner, but was happy as a deplorable in shit that her on the low vote ended up counting) and will do it here. I also don’t think The Shape of Water has passion even with its PGA win. And predicting three films to tie as the most awarded of the night is/feels wrong, so there’s that to stay up at night/wait until envelopes are opened and verified.

I just switched to The Shape of Water for Picture and Original Screenplay because it seems to have the most passion overall. McDonagh’s Directing snub never did sit right with me, even as confident as I briefly felt after Three Billboards cleaned up at Bafta. I know TSOW was snubbed for SAG Ensemble, but it still managed to get 3 acting nominations at the Oscars. With the Oscars specifically, The Shape of Water is the only film that isn’t missing something. Three Billboards isn’t in Directing, and both Get Out and Lady Bird were snubbed for Film Editing. Plus, look at Birdman a few years ago, where even when people predicted it to win Picture and Director many were still convinced The Grand Budapest Hotel would win for Screenplay, but nope! I think whatever wins Picture wins Screenplay this year, as has been the case every year from Crash to the present, with the sole exception of the silent film The Artist. IF you predict TB to take Picture, then you should probably predict it for Screenplay to, since it already beat Get Out and TSOW for writing at Bafta, just for consistency’s sake.

Shape isn’t winning Screenplay. The lawuists issued against it didn’t take but they still managed to put enough of a scare into the voters’ minds. If they give Screenplay to Shape then you can sure expect much, much more scruitiny on that script following the win and that’s something I just don’t see the Academy risking, especially after the beating they took last year with the envelopes.

They’ll give Shape Director, Production, Score and even possibly Cinematography and that would be a nice way to both honor this great film and at the same time avoid bringing unnecessary attention to its Screenplay issues.

With Shape not taking Screenplay, this category is between 3 Bills and Get Out. I can see both movies winning, but whichever wins Screenplay will most likely go on to take the main prize.

@fivestar Funny, I thought the lawsuit was relevant as well, but I don’t think voters are considering it as seriously as I thought. Even on the anonymous Oscar ballots where they hated The Shape of Water, the criticisms had nothing to do with originality, it had to do with the premise seeming unbelievable (even though it IS a fantasy film) and too weird. The lawsuit won’t mean shit in most voters minds, as is evidenced by every single anonymous ballot, whether on Indiewire, Goldderby, THR, or anywhere else. Film Twitter hasn’t exploded about it either. You can expect a lot more scrutiny if they award Three Billboards Screenplay. Get Out should have won something else besides WGA (where Billboards wasn’t even eligible) this season to convince me of its passionate support.

Moonlight had consensus last year because it had the greatest “overall likability factor.” Even people who don’t rank Shape their #1, which seems to be a surprisingly large amount of them, will rank it their 2nd or 3rd. Its that darn preferential ballot, but even then doesn’t it make sense that both social issues films (Billboards and Get Out) kind of split the vote, allowing the inoffensive and beautifully crafted film by the Director winner to slip through and take home Picture, just like it took PGA (where I had it ranked 4th!) and Critics’ Choice (where I also, believe it or not, still had it ranked down in freaking 4th!)! I am so sick and tired of underestimating this film all awards season long. I’m aware the film with the most nominations doesn’t seem to win Picture anymore, not since The King’s Speech anyways. It is the only film not missing anything from any of the Oscar branches though! Billboards was snubbed for Directing while Lady Bird and Get Out were snubbed for Film Editing. I don’t think TSOW is the La La Land type of frontrunner even with all its Oscar tech nods and SAG Ensemble snub, because last year there was pressure on the Academy voters to award a gay black coming-of-age story, so that pretty much frees up voters to not award a gay (Call Me By Your Name) and black (Get Out) movie this year, as f**ked up as I know that does sound. Many voters do seem to have this “But we did that last year” thing in their heads because Moonlight won Picture. A friend of mine pointed out that if Moonlight had lost last year and La La Land had won, then Get Out would be winning Picture this year. I agree, weird how the Oscars can work like that in how they view movies about certain groups of people. Three Billboards has won a ton of awards from notably non-American groups like Bafta, the Australian International Academy Awards, and the Golden Globes’ HFPA voters. However, in spite of its SAG sweep (which was always going to happen due to its great Ensemble that even won over Billboards-polarized Goldderby for our Awards) I can’t let The Shape of Water’s Critics’ Choice, PGA, and DGA wins slide. Three Billboards should have gotten a Directing nomination, showy or subtle. The branch voters nominated Greta Gerwig for Oscar’s sake! What was so showy or Dunkirk-y about her direction? When Argo won Picture, it had that emotional narrative of Ben Affleck’s career comeback to propel it to a win in spite of the Directing snub. Plus, Argo won Bafta, Globe, Critics’ Choice, DGA, PGA, SAG Ensemble, ACE Eddie, and WGA! It cleaned up in a way Martin McDonagh surely wishes his film had during awards season. I think Frances McDormand and even Sam Rockwell (in spite of Willem Dafoe’s passion vote coming on stronger than I anticipated) are safe to win. It kind of feels strangely predetermined that they will be the only wins for their film on Oscar night. Three Billboards has female rage, guilt, and bitterness while The Shape of Water has female compassion, determination, and love. Which film, looking at Oscar history, do you think the Academy will be more likely to crown the best of the year? Plus, love it or hate it, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri probably isn’t the best title McDonagh could have come up with, while The Shape of Water sounds pretentious and odd, but in a way I think the Oscars will love.

Seriously Terridax, just 4 days ago you just say that 3BB is a lock for Screenplay, and the Best Picture race is between 3BB, 3BB and 3BB. Now this.

That escalated quick, just like the way you change your opinion about 3BB lol

My opinions about Billboards did NOT change quickly, it took a long time to process the film and its messages. I still don’t think it is a perfect movie by any means, although I admire it in spite of whatever flaws it may have due to the stellar performances and themes or anger, redemption, and the futility of nihilism.

I have NO IDEA what to do for Best Picture anymore! That comment about Screenplay and Picture being locks for Billboards, that was before I saw all these anonymous ballots, before I really considered the fact that The Shape of Water is the only film with nominations from every crucial branch (Editors, Actors, Directors, Writers). I mean, I thought about it before, took it seriously, but even then, right when the Oscar nominations were announced I simply thought that meant Get Out or Lady Bird would win. Then after Bafta I realized that Billboards was a lock to win. Now I realize The Shape of Water is the REAL “lock” to win Best Picture of the freaking year!

Something you should know about me is I sometimes will use a ton of hubris and hyperbole in order to talk myself into sticking to my predictions or talking myself that it is smartest and safest to switch predictions. The truth is I just want to predict as many categories correctly as I possibly can, no matter how inconsistent it may make me look.

I currently have Three Billboards for Picture, but The Shape of Water is still at a close second place. On one hand, there’s the wide support for The Shape of Water, the movie with the most nominations and on the other hand the movie without Director nomination, but with two acting performances winning left and right. I’m actually excited that the Best Picture race is open to more than just two pictures.

I’m still on the fence about 1) Original Screenplay, but I think I’ll go with Get Out. 2) Film Editing, currently have Baby Driver, but voters love war movies, so I could change before Sunday. 3) Score, I just have this weird feeling about Phantom Thread. I had the same about it getting in for BP, but in the end didn’t predict it. For now, going with Desplat, just to be safe.

The first few places on the leaderboard could be determined by Documentary, Animated Short and Live Action Short.

I currently have Three Billboards for Picture, but The Shape of Water is still at a close second place. On one hand, there’s the wide support for The Shape of Water, the movie with the most nominations and on the other hand the movie without Director nomination, but with two acting performances winning left and right. I’m actually excited that the Best Picture race is open to more than just two pictures.

I’m still on the fence about 1) Original Screenplay, but I think I’ll go with Get Out. 2) Film Editing, currently have Baby Driver, but voters love war movies, so I could change before Sunday. 3) Score, I just have this weird feeling about Phantom Thread. I had the same about it getting in for BP, but in the end didn’t predict it. For now, going with Desplat, just to be safe.

The first few places on the leaderboard could be determined by Documentary, Animated Short and Live Action Short.

Don’t forget Song, where both “Remember Me” and “This Is Me” would seem like obvious winners most other years. The former lost the Globe but could win Song to go with Animated Feature just as Toy Story 3 and Frozen did in recent years, but on the other hand the latter was in a recent box office smash that feels like such a show-stopper and themes of accepting and loving oneself ring so true and relevant in the era we are living in, AND it has the same Oscar-winning writers of the La La Land song “City of Stars” that won last year, Pasek and Paul! I just switched a few hours ago to “This Is Me” and am feeling strangely comfortable with that change the more time goes bye.

I am choosing not to predict the 3 shorts categories because every year I go with the frontrunners and they almost always are wrong!

Am I the only one who thinks that Get Out and 3 Billboards will split votes for Screenplay among a majority of male voters (with a smattering for The Shape of Water and maybe a few “indie” type voters for The Big Sick) and therefore a majority of women voters will give the win to Lady Bird?