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Tue, 03 Mar 2015 14:36:17 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1Active pattern continues, with several potential problems…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/03/active-pattern-continues-with-several-potential-problems/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/03/active-pattern-continues-with-several-potential-problems/#commentsTue, 03 Mar 2015 14:36:17 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12515This morning we’ve seen periods of freezing rain and sleet in the Miami Valley. The concentration has been highest along/north of I-70, but we did have a few light showers that passed through Preble, Montgomery and Greene counties early on. More showers have developed to the west, and are filling back in over the region. Temperatures are still below freezing, so anything that falls will freeze on contact with untreated surfaces:

Be aware that travel will continue to be slick through the rest of the morning. Notice the southern areas already up at 30-degrees… warmer air is on the way for the afternoon! As we head beyond noon, we expect a significant warm up for the Miami Valley, as we push into the mid-40s.

This will end the threat of freezing rain, and we expect on and off rain showers the rest of the day. It could fall heavy at times, especially as a cold front approaches this evening/tonight. This is when Futuretrac is forecasting the heaviest rain:

As you can see the southern & eastern counties stand the best chance at seeing the heavier rainfall. This could lead to flooding concerns with the snow melt and heavy downpours. So be on the lookout for high water… always a danger, but especially at night.

Then, to add to the complexity of the forecast… the potential for accumulating snow late Wednesday into Thursday. Remember that push of moisture I mentioned in yesterday’s blog? The one that would be mainly south of us, but that we had to watch? Well, it now looks to be a little farther north. With colder air in place, we will likely see snow… especially in the southern half of the Miami Valley. This is a very early look at snowfall potential… which will likely have to be tweaked as the disturbances organizes and moves in:

Then we will turn colder. Thursday and Friday mornings, we dip into the single digits, and Thursday’s high will likely not get out of the teens. Oh, Winter, enough already!

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/03/active-pattern-continues-with-several-potential-problems/feed/0ld2hd9am tempsforecastsnowA quiet day in-between storms…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/02/a-quiet-day-in-between-storms/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/02/a-quiet-day-in-between-storms/#commentsMon, 02 Mar 2015 12:35:59 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12511High pressure is building in for the day ahead, and this means nice quiet weather before the next storm arrives tomorrow. Morning temperatures have dropped into the teens across the Miami Valley, so watch for black ice for the drive to work. We have several school closings/delays because of slick conditions, and you can always get the full list here: WDTN SCHOOL CLOSINGS/DELAYS.

There may be MORE school delays to deal with on Tuesday, as the next storm system moves in. It will arrive in the early morning… and initially, it will be cold enough for some sleet or freezing rain throughout the Miami Valley:

We could pick up some light ice accumulation, which would make for a slick morning drive. Temperatures will warm to above freezing as we head into mid and late morning, so we will see a change over to rain… with improving travel conditions. And it will be a significant warm-up for the afternoon, with highs getting up near 50-degrees! We expect on and off showers during the day, with breezy conditions. As the front approaches us in the late afternoon and evening, there will be the potential for heavy rain in some areas:

And with the snow on the ground… melting + heavy rain (could) = flooding problems. The ground will be extremely saturated, so run-off will be an issue… be sure you stay tuned to the forecast for the latest.

As the system pulls away on Wednesday, colder air will be working back into the region. So we will see the slight chance of rain/snow showers in the morning. There are then model differences on what will happen Wednesday EVENING. There looks to be a zone of snow developing south of us… how far north this will be is in question. So stay tuned to the forecast on this, as well!

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/02/a-quiet-day-in-between-storms/feed/0forecastforecast 2Winter storm update…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/01/winter-storm-update/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/01/winter-storm-update/#commentsSun, 01 Mar 2015 10:58:18 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12493The northern portion of the Miami Valley has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, in effect until 10pm. The southern counties remain under a Winter Weather Advisory, in effect until 10pm for Preble, Montgomery and Greene counties… and until 3pm for Butler, Warren and Clinton counties:

All counties will see accumulating snow today, but some mixing is possible across the south, which will limit snow totals somewhat. We expect the potential for freezing rain or rain mainly from Dayton southward. In locations that remain all snow, accumulation will be higher. The northern counties in the Warning could pick up as much as 5″-7″… while portions of Preble, Montgomery and Greene receive more like 3″-5″. And Butler, Warren and Clinton will likely pick up less than that.

Snow will continue through much of the day, with a bit of a lull in the later afternoon… and then another increase in coverage during the evening. Roads will be snow covered and slick in many areas through a good part of the day. Where we see rain mix in, there will be melting, and roads will become wet and slushy… but still slick.

As temperatures drop this evening and overnight, icy conditions will develop. Our low temperature will drop down near 20-degrees. Look for the return of sunshine on Monday, but another system will move in on Tuesday. This one may slow the morning commute with some early freezing rain… but we really warm up during the day! It will feel like Spring, with highs near 50… however, the potential for heavy rain exists. This could lead to some flooding, with snowmelt and saturated grounds.

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/03/01/winter-storm-update/feed/0adi_svr_watch_warningFrigid finish to the week, with some weekend warming…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/27/frigid-finish-to-the-week-with-some-weekend-warming/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/27/frigid-finish-to-the-week-with-some-weekend-warming/#commentsFri, 27 Feb 2015 13:11:10 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12474We will come close to a couple more cold weather records over the next 24 hours. First, a record low high temperature this afternoon.

RECORD LOW HIGH FOR TODAY: 15°FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY: 15°

High pressure building in will bring us lots of sun today, and we expect dry weather this afternoon. Tonight, skies will remain clear, and we will come very close to another record:

RECORD LOW FOR SATURDAY: -3°FORECAST LOW FOR SATURDAY: -2°

With all the talk of record cold, you would think we would be at the end of one of the coldest Februaries on record! You would be correct!

While we will be frigid today through tomorrow, it does not look like we will be cold enough to crack the top 3. And going into a new month on Sunday, we will get into a warm up:

BUT it will be very lion-like on Sunday morning, because it will still be cold enough for snow. And as moisture moves in Saturday night into Sunday, we do expect to see some snow accumulation! So if you need to be out and about early, be prepared for a messy drive, with at least a couple inches of snow possible. We will warm enough the the afternoon to see snow mix with and then change over to rain. Highs reach the upper 30s. Back to snow as we cool off Sunday night, and then most of Monday will be dry.

On Tuesday, moisture returns to the area, and in the morning we could see a brief period of freezing rain before temperatures warm above freezing. Tuesday may actually feel like Spring to you, as highs climb into the mid-40s, and we could see periods of heavy rain! I would not even be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder. Flooding would be a concern, too, as the snowpack will rapidly melt. Stay tuned to the forecast as we head into a very active pattern!

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/27/frigid-finish-to-the-week-with-some-weekend-warming/feed/0coldTRENDA quiet day today before more snow showers and Arctic air…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/25/a-quiet-day-today-before-more-snow-showers-and-arctic-air/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/25/a-quiet-day-today-before-more-snow-showers-and-arctic-air/#commentsWed, 25 Feb 2015 13:28:26 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12467This morning we are starting out much warmer than yesterday morning. Really, anywhere from 10 to 30 degrees warmer! While Tuesday’s official low in Dayton was only -2, many other local areas were even colder. Here is a list of some of the lowest numbers recorded:

That -14 at the Base is actually a new record low for the date, breaking the previous record of -11 set back in 1951.

We’ve been with southerly winds overnight, so temperatures are holding in the teens ahead of a weak cold front:

The front is not bringing in a huge sensible weather change, however. We will just continue with below-normal temperatures, as we top out in the mid-20s today. Overnight, the NEXT disturbance moves in. You can see it in the north central US this morning:

This feature will weaken as it heads our way, but we do expect it to bring some light snow showers to the area late tonight and into the day Thursday:

So some could start off with a slick morning drive… most likely across the northern half of the Miami Valley, initially. Overall snow accumulation looks light, as most will see an inch or less… but a few across the far north could see just over one inch.

This disturbance brings in another push of very cold air for the second half of the week, too. Take a look at forecast high temperatures:

And we should drop below zero both Friday and Saturday mornings. Thursday through Saturday morning, we will once again be flirting with record cold!

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/25/a-quiet-day-today-before-more-snow-showers-and-arctic-air/feed/0LOWSTEMPSSATRADFORECASTTRENDFrigid weather continues through the end of the week…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/24/frigid-weather-continues-through-the-end-of-the-week/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/24/frigid-weather-continues-through-the-end-of-the-week/#commentsTue, 24 Feb 2015 14:23:33 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12463Although today and Wednesday will be warmer than yesterday (when we hit a high of 16)… we will continue to run about 20-degrees below normal through the end of the week. We will see highs in the lower 20s this afternoon, but it has been a frigid morning. Here is a look at some of the low temperatures in the region:

High pressure brought a wide range of temperatures, locally. With clear skies, light winds and snow pack on the ground… we saw everyone below zero, but some were MUCH colder than others. Dayton officially dropped to -2, so we missed the record low by 1-degree today! Some of the colder readings I saw were -13 in Urbana, -17 in Tipp City, and -19 in Springfield! BRRRRR for sure!

We will enjoy a lot of sunshine through the first part of today, with an increase in cloud cover in the late afternoon. Winds will pick up from the southwest as high pressure slips east, and a cold front moves in from the northwest.

We can’t rule out a few flurries or light snow showers overnight, but accumulation won’t amount to more than a dusting in spots. Temperatures won’t drop immediately behind the front, so highs will again be in the 20s on Wednesday. BUT another push of bitter cold IS on the way for the second half of the week. A more potent disturbance heads our way for Wednesday night/Thursday. This will bring in a better chance of snow showers, which look to give us some light accumulation. We will finish the week on a frigid note, too, coming close to not only record cold high temperatures Thursday and Friday… but record low temperatures, too. Here are the current records:

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/24/frigid-weather-continues-through-the-end-of-the-week/feed/0LOWSRECORDSWinter storm update 11am 2-21-15http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/21/winter-storm-update-11am-2-21-15/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/21/winter-storm-update-11am-2-21-15/#commentsSat, 21 Feb 2015 15:56:40 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12432We started the day with a couple inches of snow, and with a mid-morning heavy burst, that quickly went up to give us a good 3-4″ across the area. Some spots have isolated higher amounts as of 11am. Here is a map-view of snowfall totals from our Weathercheckers and the National Weather Service:

Many areas are seeing a few breaks from the heavier/steadier snow this morning, but these holes will fill back in as we head towards lunchtime. Here is the 11am radar snapshot:

Our snowfall forecast still looks good, as we could pick up another 1″ to 3″ across the area through afternoon:

There is still a question as to the extent freezing rain or rain will mix in across the south. There have been reports of this occurring already in the Cincinnati area. You can see how warmer air is trying to push north:

This would obviously cut down on snowfall totals, and would help to melt some of the snow. But be aware if you see liquid falling… the ground is still quite cold. So icing will be possible and the roads will not be in good shape through most of today.

The storm will pull away late afternoon/evening, and Futuretrac has most of us dry by 6 or 7pm:

Then cold air moves back in for Sunday and early next week. We will start a new week with the possibility of more sub-zero mornings, and highs in the teens and 20s.

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/21/winter-storm-update-11am-2-21-15/feed/0snowld2hdsnow forecasttempsmixingforecastFrigid finish to the week, and another winter storm over the weekend…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/20/frigid-finish-to-the-week-and-another-winter-storm-over-the-weekend/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/20/frigid-finish-to-the-week-and-another-winter-storm-over-the-weekend/#commentsFri, 20 Feb 2015 14:34:28 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12417We were very close to setting a record low in Dayton this morning!

Some of our outlying areas got even colder. Here are some of the colder reports from our Weathercheckers:

Ft. Loramie: -10Cedarville: -10Jamestown: -11.5

And here is a list of preliminary low temps from the National Weather Service: FRIDAY LOWS

As high pressure shifts east of us today, we will see a southerly flow develop. This will do two things… warm us a little (highs near 16), and also increase moisture across the region. We’ll first notice an increase in cloud cover later today. Then, as the storm moves closer… snow will develop tonight. It won’t happen until after 2 or 3am, so if you have evening plans, you should be fine. Just know that if you’re out LATE, the roads will potentially be slick.

Initially, it will be a light snow, but it will increase in intensity as we head into Saturday morning. We have the potential to see some mixing, too, especially across the southern portion of the Miami Valley.

This is going to be another tough snow forecast… as precipitation will continue through the day. This is the initial thinking on totals:

While northern counties will see less intensity, it is likely these communities will stay all snow. The southern counties will see the heaviest precip, but also stand the best chance at mixing. This could be freezing rain–so light icing is possible… and it could be rain as we warm even more in the afternoon. We expect highs in the mid-upper 30s.

This forecast will change! Pay close attention to the forecast as we head into the weekend. Travel conditions will not be good through the day Saturday. The National Weather Service has issued alerts to illustrate this:

These are in effect from tonight through Saturday evening. Sunday, we will turn cold again. We will see early highs in the mid-20s, and then falling temperatures. We’re back in the single digits early next week… more frigid mornings!

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/20/frigid-finish-to-the-week-and-another-winter-storm-over-the-weekend/feed/0eventforecastsnowwarningsRecord breaking cold air in place…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/19/record-breaking-cold-air-in-place/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/19/record-breaking-cold-air-in-place/#commentsThu, 19 Feb 2015 13:43:31 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12408Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals from yesterday:

Overnight, skies cleared out and with the snow on the ground and an Arctic air mass in place, temperatures across the region dropped well below zero this morning:

It feels even colder, with that west wind blowing in between 10 and 20 mph:

We have a WIND CHILL WARNING in effect for all of the Miami Valley until noon today… and at that time ti will switch over to a WIND CHILL ADVISORY as the wind chill values won’t be quite as low. But they’re still going to be dangerously cold!

It’s just a day you don’t want to be outside, if you don’t have to be. If you do have to work out there, be sure to plan plenty of breaks indoors! The WIND CHILL ADVISORY will continue overnight, as we once again drop below zero. Actual air temperatures should be even colder Friday morning… and we do stand to break not one… but TWO cold weather records in the next 24 hours:

A record low HIGH temperature today… and then a record low LOW temperature tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon we will see some improvement as we climb up to 18 degrees, with even more warming as we head into the weekend. We expect upper 30s on Saturday, believe it or not! This, as our next storm system moves in. Right now, it looks to bring us snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning. As we warm through the day, any precip will mix with and then change over to rain. Rain is likely Saturday afternoon, evening and overnight… then we will see cold air move in and change over precip to snow again for Sunday. Stay tuned to this complex forecast as we get closer to the weekend!

]]>http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/19/record-breaking-cold-air-in-place/feed/0snowtempswind chillforecastrecordCold cold and snow…http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/18/cold-cold-and-snow/
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2015/02/18/cold-cold-and-snow/#commentsWed, 18 Feb 2015 14:08:03 +0000Jamie Jarosikhttp://blogs.wdtn.com/?p=12401A cold front moving through this morning kicked off some more snow showers across the Miami Valley. Most spots saw 1 to 2 inches, as the snow has been very fluffy! Typical snow-to-water ratios are 10:1 meaning 10″ of snow would be equivalent to 1″ of liquid. Today the ratio has been more like 20:1 or at times 30:1, so you can see how that fluffy snow adds up! We did have a few 3″ measurements, Lebanon being one of those locations.

We will see the steady snow come to an end, but we can’t rule out a few flurries or light snow showers through the afternoon. It will get colder as the day goes on, and the winds will be increasing. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect for all of the Miami Valley, as wind chills will reach dangerous levels:

Lows tonight will drop off well below zero:

And on Thursday, we will not get out of the single digits. In fact, we could be dealing with record cold on Thursday… the coldest high temperature ever recorded:

Friday morning we will again drop below zero, but during the afternoon we at least warm up to 18-degrees. And over the weekend we expect 30-degree highs! Yes we will crack the freezing mark, but our next storm arrives as well. It looks like we’ll see rain or snow showers Saturday, as the storm pulls up warmer air… and then this changes to all snow showers on Sunday as colder air moves in behind the storm.