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Monday, 3 January 2011

Isn't This Where We Came In?

What can be said at the beginning of this year? Many people make predictions. I can confidently say that as there are so many varying, contradictory, confused, vague, expert and inexpert that some could be right.

Which of them will be I do not know. What I can say is many people will say and do things they will later regret, things will happen that are unexpected, some of the expected or hoped for things will not happen and the human race will be no more wiser or reliable at the end of the year than at the beginning.

On the subject of wisdom Grant Shapps, Minister for Housing, who has been in and out of the property market along with others seems to be saying that he is alright the rest of us can forget it in terms of Brown’s Boom, the end that was never to be it seems is imminent.

Quite how he can square this with reports of funny money flooding into London to keep the pot boiling, encouraged by the government, is uncertain.

When I walk along the High Street in my town most of the shops that used to sell things are now either employment agencies or estate agencies.

There is a discrepancy between them, because the salary levels, many for jobs with responsibility requiring experience and qualifications, would not allow the takers to get into the job market on the basis either of salary or possible savings.

A reason for this is that lenders have recently rediscovered the knowledge that if you lend pots of money to people that cannot afford to repay it on the basis of them telling you what you want to know about their incomes and personal status, you may find yourself stuck with either bad debts or unsaleable overpriced property or both.

So what would Grant Shapps like to have? It is more lending to people on a relaxed basis and with lots of “innovative” mortgage products subject to little or no regulation. This is just what was involved in the recent crash.

One worry for the government is the needs of families. These are said to be in decline because of social changes. But according to an item in the Hals Report there could be other reasons.

We are told to be a high consumption society. Much of what we consume and eat is now dependent on petro chemical products. It is the derivatives of these shoved into almost everything we eat and use that is doing the damage. It is not just us, it is also the other creatures of the earth.

“Not with a bang but a whimper” as the poet T.S. Eliot said in his poem “The Hollow Men”

But there could be a good big bang on the way that will end the debate on the Euro because it will end much of Europe.

Apparently there is a huge Caldera in Italy compared with which Pompeii is but a pimple. British scientists are arguing with others about the right to drill holes in it.

I can predict that in 2011 there will be some volcanic activity somewhere. How big and where and with what effect I do not know. We were told about the risk of a larger secondary Icelandic one that has yet to happen and other possibilities. Your guess is as good as mine and maybe better.