Obama security plan highlights Russia threat

President Barack Obama’s new National Security Strategy calls out Russia for its aggression against Ukraine and also puts heavy emphasis on climate change as a growing threat to peace, according to details shared with POLITICO.

The much-delayed strategy document, used to prioritize threats and policies across the administration, is due to be unveiled Friday. It holds fast to the diplomacy-heavy approach that the White House has long pursued despite criticism by some in the GOP who say it makes the United States look weak.

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The strategy’s release follows a tumultuous year and a half that saw the territorial expansion of Islamic militants in the Middle East, Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, escalating tensions between China and its neighbors, the spread of the Ebola virus and more. The sheer number of crises is believed to be one reason the document took so long to put together; its delay had frustrated some top Republicans.

The resulting paper covers a wide range of subjects, from the need to battle terrorist groups to the importance of promoting prosperity across the globe. But while the last National Security Strategy, a 60-page document released in May 2010, focused heavily on the importance of rebuilding America’s shattered economy, the new one, which is roughly half as long, sounds many upbeat tones about the country’s economic resurgence, similar to the president’s State of the Union address, said a former U.S. official who has seen the document and described its contents to POLITICO.

The discussion of Russia, and to an extent China, is a nod to the return of big power politics in a post-Cold War world where non-state actors like Al Qaeda have increasingly been viewed as the dominant threat. The 2015 strategy takes noticeable aim at Moscow, with which Obama tried to “reset” relations earlier in his presidency. Russia’s support for separatists in parts of Ukraine, and its takeover of Crimea, have severely strained Washington-Moscow ties.

“Russia’s aggression in Ukraine makes clear that European security and the international rules and norms against territorial aggression cannot be taken for granted,” the document says, according to the former U.S. official, who added that it notes that sanctions against Moscow will continue.

The 2010 strategy also mentioned Russia several times, but mainly in the context of working with Moscow, such as in promoting nuclear non-proliferation. China, meanwhile, is mentioned in this year’s document partly in the context of its actions toward some of its neighbors in the past year and a half, including disputes over islands.

Although Obama has long stressed the need to tackle climate change despite claims among some in the GOP that the science is unproven, his emphasis on the issue appears to have grown as he nears the end of his time in office. The subject was mentioned several times in 2010, but the new strategy stresses it even more.

“Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water,” the document states, according to the former U.S. official. “The present day effects of climate change are being felt from the Arctic to the Midwest. Increased sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal regions, infrastructure, and property. In turn, the global economy suffers, compounding the growing costs of preparing and restoring infrastructure.”

The document, as expected, lists terrorism as a major and evolving threat, mentioning for instance the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant, or ISIL, which has seized control of significant territory in Iraq and Syria, and the need to “arrest their advance” and “degrade their capabilities.” But the 2015 strategy appears to stick largely to the White House’s usual language on the dangers posed by extremists, emphasizing a multilateral, cooperative approach toward taking down such networks, the former U.S. official said. It also points to past U.S. successes against Al Qaeda’s core leadership, even as it acknowledges the group has morphed, with franchises popping up in various parts of the world.

Asked for comment on the new document, Bernadette Meehan, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said in a statement that it “affirms America’s leadership role within a rules-based international order. It reinforces our commitment to allies and partners and welcomes the constructive contributions of responsible rising powers. It also signals our resolve and readiness to deter and, if necessary, defeat potential adversaries.”

Presidents are required by law to produce a national security strategy every year, but that rule has often been ignored. Former President George W. Bush produced two such documents during his two terms.

The Obama administration had been expected to unveil a new strategy last year, but the barrage of international crises appeared to slow down the effort. Putting together such a strategy takes tremendous time even under normal circumstances, and its authors are typically loath to produce a paper if there’s a chance events could quickly render it irrelevant.

Peter Feaver, a professor at Duke University who has helped produce national security strategy documents in both the Clinton and Bush administrations, said the Obama team got lucky that it didn’t publish its second strategy prior to the events of 2014. Even early that year, Obama appeared to be underestimating the growing strength of the ISIL insurgency, he noted.

A strategy laid out too soon “would have been a punching bag and maybe even a punch line as 2014 unfolded,” said Feaver, who has not seen the new document. “What you want to see in the document now is the delay is justified — that the document reflects that the administration really has come to terms with the new reality and is addressing it in an honest, candid, insightful and fruitful way.”

Another potential factor causing the delay was the shift in staffing at the National Security Council, including the 2013 appointment of Susan Rice as the president’s national security adviser. Rice is due to discuss the new strategy on Friday at the Brookings Institution.

Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and John McCain of Arizona have been among the GOP lawmakers who have criticized the White House’s failure to release the document sooner. Collins has argued that the many challenges on the world stage made it even more urgent to know the administration’s strategy.