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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Watchers for the 2-24-11 trading session

GBR

First red day Supernovae but within the context of a new scan on one. Finished red by over 9.5% last time, so more down side might not be entirely realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of redness on Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Biggest volume yet on the rise over 5 days. An afternoon fade presented itself today for early shorts, so if it pans out for gravy that would be sweet!

BDCO

New Supernovae scan return. Almost made my list last night for a long, man I should have published that! Now, it's on my list as a potential short with conditional entry. Insane runs in the past on this one, and it's up after hours a little. Most of this might be tied to the Libya oil crisis, so as that goes so does this, to a degree. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Up after hours, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades. A long scalp on spiking up from or near the bell is still possible if it keeps up. Some of the above short scenarios are more likely to be held more.

FPP

A more measured way to play Libya oil woes than either former Supernovae of the decade MXC or PDO is this one that has some hopeful support (prior resistance) at 4.50 or so. The others are up so much already for easy to assess upside speculation. A fade entry on a fail at 4.50 to hold it on volume with acceleration. This also suggests easy stop placement for Bulls just under than level, aside from initial noise candle moves. A long on spiking up at or near the gun in the form of a scalp or more, depending on how it holds up. New 52's also today, amid losses in general on the Street. Also a long on consistent trading above the opening price level. This will be easiest if it opens barely up or down or flat and then advances steadily. Avoid all big gaps. Keep monitoring oil prices for cues as to your odds of staying power on longs, and to bolster shorting cues.

FONR

Not as impressive on the earnings as they spun it. It daily doji printed today and it only held its spike in the sense that it finished unchanged, but not actually positive. I am a skeptic. See my comments for last time, they mostly still apply on this blast from the past.

CBIS

Well, much of what I wrote last time still applies, but any longs are best confined to spikes up at or near the open. Profit taking on the latest cancer fluff piece is much more likely now that it is up so much. Cheezy web site reeks of sleaze, to be honest. Morning panic dumps or confirmed weakness cue entries are my ideal here.

ROYL

Like the other Libya oil stocks, this one is up on the crisis no doubt. Not entirely, though as they also won regulatory approval. Up nicely after hours, it might provide a rare top fishing fade on a gapper and some initial spiking up. You can scalp long the spike, too, but it is up so much already. If so, limit the slippage with a special market order with built in price limit specs, if you have a broker that can do that. If not, you should consider getting one if you are a serious scalper. Use limit orders on all other plays, of course.

SPLM

This has been supported on what looked like serious early weakness twice in the past 2 days. Long lower shadows may mean the rug pulls will not be supported much longer. Potential short with conditions. If it looks strong early, or consistently prints above the opening price level, keep out. If it morning panic style tanks, quickly scalp fade it, using a specialized market order, like described for ROYL above. Keep monitoring it for a bounce and if it shows clear signs of life, like a higher 5 minute candle close, exit that, or sell half of it. I suspect the day is fast approaching where this panics early or in the afternoon and stays negative at the finish.

Unofficially, keep and eye on COUGF and TUFF for more reddening 2nd day. Both, especially the latter fell enough to make it dicey banking on much more if any. TDGI might keep going if .06 can hold. A short if not. A price correction from last August has been conquered here nicely on this thing.