Davis begins long-shot quest

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AUSTIN, Texas Wendy Davis' path to the governor's mansion might not be impossible, but a victory would be the most improbable in Texas politics in two decades.

To succeed, the Democratic state senator must raise $40 million, attract groups that haven't voted together in big numbers since 1990 and hope her Republican opponent makes a big mistake. And she must do all this in America's reddest big state.

Still, Davis advisers have a plan. They say a charismatic populist who energizes new voters can win next year with the message that years of Republican rule have hurt public education, highways, social services and health care.

“There hasn't been a real campaign in a generation,” Davis consultant Matt Angle said. “The story she needs to tell is that she's a business moderate and a Texan who fights.”

Davis, who officially entered the race Thursday, burst on the political scene with an 11-hour filibuster against an abortion-restriction bill. The episode mobilized a dispirited Democratic Party that hasn't elected a candidate to statewide office in Texas since 1994.

As a Fort Worth city councilwoman and state senator, she supported measures benefiting business, advocated public-private partnerships, promoted education – her first filibuster in 2011 was against a $4 billion cut for public schools – and advanced the issues of women's health care and equal pay.

The campaign must raise big money, remake the electorate by registering voters and frame her Republican opponent as unacceptable to moderate suburban women. Here's how Davis hopes to do it:

THE MONEY

Likely GOP nominee Greg Abbott has been attorney general for a decade and has built a sturdy network of big-dollar donors. He has more than $20 million and is expected to raise as much as $70 million.

Davis will depend on less money but more donors. She quickly raised $1 million after her abortion filibuster and has received money from 25,000 contributors, mostly small amounts from outside Texas. Two possible sources of big-dollar donations are Houston attorneys Steve and Amber Mostyn, who gave heavily to former Houston Mayor Bill White's failed 2010 campaign against Rick Perry. To air enough TV ads to advance her message adequately, Davis will need $40 million.

THE OPPONENT

The Davis campaign blueprint calls for painting Abbott as an extremist who has appealed to the far right, prosecuted minorities and the poor in voter ID cases and protected wealthy donors. In particular, she hopes to do this among key constituencies – women and Latinos.

THE ELECTORATE

Democrats haven't attracted a majority of women in governor's races since Ann Richards left office.

White received 45 percent of the women's vote, according to exit polls. Had he matched Richards' 61 percent in 1990, he'd be governor.

Davis has a compelling personal story – a single mother living in a mobile home who went to Texas Christian University and graduated from Harvard Law School. Coupled with Democratic claims of a GOP war against women, her record on reproductive rights, expanding health care and sponsoring an equal-pay bill (which Perry vetoed) will be part of her pitch to women.

“The moderate suburban woman is out there. I'm not sure it's enough to make up for the right-wing zealots” in the party, said former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff, a moderate Republican. “Most of those women don't put on their marching shoes. They may quietly vote for the other party, but it's hard to see a movement.”

Democrats also need a huge increase in minority voting. The ultimate targets: 30 percent of whites, 90 percent of blacks and 70 percent of Latinos.

But she must grow the number of friendly voters, especially Latinos, by persuading them to register and turn out in ways they typically don't in non-presidential years.

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