Electoral College Update: Bad news for Romney on eve of debates

Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.

The big picture:

On the eve of the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, polls show the Democratic incumbent leading in every battleground state. For the first time since we began our Electoral College Update, Obama has a clear lead in states (and the District of Columbia) with more than 270 electoral votes. He now stands at 271, one more than the magic number needed to claim victory.

There’s been a lot of kvetching among Republican loyalists over polling methodology. My thought: Rick’s Rule #1 of polling is that any individual poll can be wrong but they can’t all be wrong. Even Fox News’ polling shows Obama ahead.

The best way for Romney to redraw the map in a hurry is to perform well in the three upcoming debates. The national average over the past week stood at an Obama lead of 4.0 percentage points, almost unchanged from 3.9 a week ago and 3.1 a week two weeks ago.