In brief

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party will continue to implement controversial, nationalist policies at least until the 2019 parliamentary election. Its failure to address rule-of-law issues may prompt the EU to try to impose sanctions on Poland. However, Hungary will almost certainly veto this. We estimate real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2018, driven by booming private consumption and a pick-up in investment. Capacity constraints and weaker external demand will slow growth in 2019-23.