Canadian Conservatives

Several Anglosphere counties are in the process of implementing climate change policies that mean burdensome green regulations which kill jobs. There's the United States, where jobs and energy will move to China unless a new direction is taken on the environment:

"Foreign markets, led by China, could soon become the most appealing options for American energy companies dealing in coal. Environmental Protection Agency regulations, chief among them an effective ban on new coal-fired power plants, are squeezing the U.S. market and strangling the fuel that powered the Industrial Revolution. “You can see it dwindling away,” said Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia Republican and co-chairwoman of the House of Representatives‘ Coal Caucus. “The regulations are made without regard. [Federal officials] don’t even ask what kind of impact they’ll have. The EPA has already put in place … rules and other impossible standards that are causing a giant shift of our natural resources to China.”"

"At the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, this month, Latin American leaders pushed hard for a resolution supporting Argentina's claim to the Falkland Islands. Stephen Harper pushed back.

In a private session with leaders, according to people who know, the Prime Minister fiercely supported the right of the islanders to determine their fate, and they had chosen to remain British. For Canada, this was a matter of deep principle, Mr. Harper insisted.

The United States has always been neutral on the Falklands, but when Canada took the lead, President Barack Obama made it clear he backed Mr. Harper. The resolution failed.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was furious. “This is pointless. Why did I even come here?” the Argentinean president was overheard saying as she stormed out of the conference."

Cameron may have said "no" to Europe. Canada's Conservative Government has said "no" to the world.

The Canadian Environment Minister Peter Kent yesterday pulled his country out of the Kyoto Treaty. In this short statement he said that he wasn't willing to impose massive costs on his country's economy while other nations continued to increase emissions:

"A previous Liberal government signed on to Kyoto in 1997 with no intention of ever meeting targets – then did nothing for years – Canada was lagging well behind by 2006.

While our government has taken action since 2006 to make real reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, under Kyoto Canada is facing radical and irresponsible choices if we are to avoid punishing multibillion-dollar payments.

To meet the targets under Kyoto for 2012 would be the equivalent of:

Either removing every car, truck, ATV, tractor, ambulance, police car and vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads.

Or, closing down the entire farming and agricultural sector and cutting heat to every home, office, hospital, factory and building in Canada.

The cost of not taking this type of radical and irresponsible action?

The loss of thousands of jobs or the transfer of $14 billion from Canadian taxpayers to other countries — the equivalent of $1,600 from every Canadian family — with no impact on emissions or the environment.

That’s the Kyoto cost to Canadians.

And here’s the kicker: global emissions would keep rising because Kyoto doesn’t cover the major emitters, like the United States and China, which is why Kyoto doesn’t work.

As we have said, Kyoto — for Canada — is in the past. As such, we are invoking our legal right to formally withdraw from Kyoto."

Sebastian Way, a former Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) staffer in Ottawa who now works as a lawyer in London, reviews last week's CPC convention which celebrated Stephen Harper’s majority victory at the recent general election, and discusses lessons that the UK Conservatives could learn from our Canadian cousins.

Following five years of the draining trench warfare that accompanies minority government, the 2011 election saw the Canadian Conservatives break through to a strong majority, winning 166 seats out of 308 in the Canadian House of Commons to match the Conservative majority in the appointed Senate. So Stephen Harper’s CPC is now in a position of total supremacy – a remarkable achievement for a party that was only founded in 2003, at a time when the conservative movement in Canada was in disarray and a sort of Liberal party-dominated end of history was the accepted wisdom in Canadian politics.

The general mood of the Conservative convention held last week in Canada’s capital, Ottawa, was therefore of relief and pride at a momentous achievement. As the largest party in two consecutive hung parliaments (in 2006 and 2008), Harper chose to govern as a minority, relying for tactical support on the CPC’s massive advantage in fundraising, its unshakeable connection to a committed base of core supporters, its sophisticated voter ID programme and its careful strategy of brand differentiation from the unappealing mush of the crowded Canadian political left. The decision was handsomely rewarded at the election and is a compelling lesson to conservatives globally.

The achievements of Harper's minority governments: "While his governance style has been quiet, Mr. Harper has established an impressive track record. He's cut Canada's value-added tax (the GST) as well as the corporate tax. He's deregulated the telecom industry. And despite strong pressure, he's only modestly given in to the temptation of stimulus spending. The result is that the Conservative Party has credibly promised to cut spending further and to balance the federal budget by 2014. Moreover, based on International Monetary Fund projections, in 2015 Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio will be less than 30%, largely unchanged from the start of the recession—and a third of the projected U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio in that year. Remarkably, Harper has accomplished these goals despite having to depend, at different points, on parliamentary votes from the Liberals (who publicly oppose tax relief), the socialist New Democratic Party (NDP), and the Bloc Quebecois (a separatist party led by a former Marxist). Now, after taming the deficit, he's promised a middle-class tax cut." (David Gratzer for WSJ)

But will Harper be different in majority? "Prime Minister Stephen Harper has argued – and rightly so – that he is the best of the party leaders to lead the country on a path out of the recession. The Conservatives have also pledged to the hold the line on regulations, pass tough-on-crime legislation and provide some small amount of tax relief for families. But what they propose besides that is largely disappointing: a pledge to increase health care transfers to the provinces by 6% annually, the complication of the tax code with things like credits for going to the gym, and the continued funding of the arts." (Tim Mak for FrumForum)

No says one freemarketeer: "Stephen Harper has not altered the Canadian political landscape with this election, and he won't now, even if he can. Instead of writing the script for a new conservative Canada, the Harper Tories reconstructed their political operation as the new Liberal Party of Canada. The Tories rode down the centre of Canadian politics, promising more of the same if elected -- the same health care, the same muddled corporate policies, the same ad hoc interventions in economic and social programs that played to a range of existing political camps. A few elements of Tory policy -- foreign affairs, corporate taxation, caution on climate change policy--suggest a Conservative willingness to buck Canadian tradition by sticking to programs that are under constant opposition attack. But that willingness was all too limited over the last four years, and nothing changed during the election." (Terence Corcoran for the National Post)

The rise and long decline of Canada's Liberals: "During the long ascendancy of the Liberal Party, the frozen Dominion came over all touchy-feely. It started pushing up its taxes and regulations to EU levels. The state that invented multi-culturalism in the 1970s took it to ridiculous lengths, appeasing anti-Western mullahs while persecuting Mark Steyn. In foreign policy, as in domestic, Canadians became English-speaking Scandinavians. Not any more. The past decade has heard the melancholy, long withdrawing roar of the Canadian Liberals. In 2000, they won 172 seats in the House of Commons; in 2004, 135; in 2006, 103; in 2008, 77; now they have been reduced to 33. Their leader, the former BBC presenter Michael Ignatieff, lost his own riding (as Canadian constituencies are known)." (Dan Hannan for The Telegraph).

And what about the new leading party of opposition, the NDP: "Like the Labour Party they are a product of trade unionism and left-wing intellectualism, although the party did not come into existence until the early 1960s when the Canadian Labour Congress and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation merged to create it. Ideologically they are a socialist party but also one which has tended to be environmentally friendly and socially liberal, something that marks them in stark contrast to Harper's climate change scepticism and Republican-style attitude to gun-control, migration and prison policy." (Benjamin Fox for the New Statesman)

A massive defeat for the separatists of Quebec: "Whatever their partisan preferences, Canadians should take heart from the Quebec results. The Bloc Québécois is effectively extinct, its leader defeated, its approach to federal politics rebuked. Three in four Quebeckers cast a vote for federalist parties. It may be a protest vote, a vote for the charisma and the nationalist-friendly promises of Jack Layton. But still, after years of Bloc obstructionism, Quebeckers are expressing a desire to participate in the affairs of their nation – of Canada." (Globe and Mail).

Six weeks ago the the opposition Liberal Party voted to bring down Stephen Harper's second minority Conservative government. Few understood why. The Conservatives were ten points ahead in some opinion polls. Liberal party supporters will have lots of time to reflect on all of this over the next few years. Their party under the intellectual Michael Ignatieff didn't just fail to win power, it lost its position as Canada's opposition. It lost half its seats. Ignatieff even lost his own riding. The Liberal Party - the party of Trudeau and traditionally seen as the nation's natural party of government - will now go through a leadership election and may come under pressure to merge with the party that replaced it as the leading alternative to Stephen Harper's Conservatives; the left-wing NDP.

The Conservative Party of Canada won a projected 12 seat majority in the Ottawa parliament on the back of 40% of the votes. It will be interesting to see if pro-AV campaigners try to use this in Britain in the next 48 hours.

Harper has run a centrist Conservative administration with a mix of spending increases and modest tax cuts throughout his five years as Prime Minister. He has been the West's staunchest ally of Israel and a critic of the global consensus on climate change. He hasn't been a compassionate conservative in the Cameron tradition but he has explicity rejected libertarianism, saying he believes that government has important roles. For the first time he has a majority of his own and can plan to rule for five years, not for a few months. He promises no radical change of departure but most expect tougher positions on crime and an end to big state funding of the political parties.

Mr Harper won the extra votes this time by ruthless attack ads on Ignatieff (see below) and by raising fears about a rainbow alliance of the Liberals, NDP and Quebec separatists governing Canada if he didn't get a majority this time.

The new leading opposition party is Jack Layton's NDP, a party that promised $75bn of extra spending. The surge of this left-wing party was powered by Mr Layton's charismatic leadership and by the wipeout of the Bloc Quebecois. Sat hehind Layton on the opposition benches will be a very young and untested set of MPs. The NDP won many more seats than they expected and the ruthless Conservative machine will look to expose all signs of eccentric and dangerous views among the NDP's rookie parliamentary membership.

The Bloc's leader Gilles Duceppe followed Ignatieff and lost his own seat. It was a deserved defeat and I can only quote this lovely line from John Ivison that sums up the once powerful separatist party; "No-one should be lamenting the demise of a party that had as many different words for grievance as the Inuit do for snow."

The fact that two of Canada's three left-wing parties suffered such big defeats and lost their leaders might finally force the parties to come together - ending a balkanisation of the Canadian Left that has so benefited the Conservatives.

And on a personal note I'd like to congratulate my friend John Williamson. Formerly of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation he entered parliament by retaining the Conservative riding of New Brunswick South West. Good luck John.

And, as promised, here are the videos. If you like political attack videos you'll love these...

Canada has a general election set for May 2nd and Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper formally launched his party's election platform at the end of last week.

Harper has been Prime Minister, leading a minority government, since 2006, having increased the Conservative Party's number of seats at a general election in 2008 to 143, twelve short of an overall majority.

This election was triggered after a vote of no confidence (passed by 156 votes to 145) after the Government was found to be in contempt of Parliament because it failed to disclose the full costs of anti-crime programmes, corporate tax cuts and plans to purchase stealth fighter jets from the USA.

This does not appear to have had any impact on public opinion, though (as we have recently noted here and here); the Conservatives were in the low thirties for virtually all of 2010, but have been in the high thirties since the beginning of this year. During that time the gap has been widening between the Conservatives and the leading opposition Liberal Party, led by Michael Ignatieff. See here for all the latest polling data.

Canada's voters have two choices at the general election scheduled for 2nd May...

The opposition Liberals, led by Michael Ignatieff, want voters to believe that it's a choice between continuing minority Conservative government - held in check by them and the other leftist opposition parties - and a majority Conservative government that would, among other dastardly things, enact a traditionalist social agenda.

The Conservatives want voters to believe that the real choice is between a majority Conservative and a minority Liberal government (which would be tugged leftwards by the tax'n'spend NDP and by the separatist Bloc Quebecois).

The latest polls (click on graphic above to enlarge it or here to see original) suggest that the Conservative position is strengthening a little but there's still a month of campaigning to go. What will encourage Mr Harper, however, is that his strongest issue - the economy - is increasing in resonance. He insists, meanwhile, that his priorities wouldn't change if he wins a majority and rejects Liberal Party claims that he would restrict abortion rights.

The two videos below give a taste of the campaign that the Canadian conservatives are running.

Opinion polls suggest that Canada will have another minority Conservative government after the nation votes again, in May. Analysis of the latest EKOS poll suggests that the Liberal opposition led by Michael Ignatieff is doing better among younger, but less likely-to-vote Canadians and the Conservatives are doing better among seniors. The Conservatives are also raising more than twice as much money as the Liberals - and more than all the other parties combined.

The presence of a large number of separatist MPs from French-speaking Quebec mean that it is very hard for any mainstream Canadian party to now win enough votes to form a majority. Canada is a left-leaning country but the Left is balkanised - splitting between the Liberals, NDP, Greens and, to some extent, the Bloc Quebecois.

This won't stop Harper trying, however, and the Globe and Mail reports his hope for a breakthrough among women voters to give him those crucial extra seats. The last budget included a "tax credit for caregivers; relief for medical expenses and a tax credit for children enrolled in arts and crafts programs" as part of this female-friendly Conservatism.

Stephen Harper recently completed five years as PM and we reviewed his record here. Terence Corcoran for the National Post has argued that the Canadian Conservatives have been transformed by politics rather than have transformed politics themselves:

"There is no Harper Nation. After five-plus years in office, the Harper Conservatives have singularly failed to change the Canadian ideological landscape. Instead, Canadian politics changed the Conservatives. In power, they transformed themselves into another basely partisan party that willingly and even eagerly pandered to whatever the political three-ring circus put on display. This week’s budget, in which $2-billion in loose cash was promptly distributed to a score of special interests and political agendas, left in place a $40-billion deficit for 2010 and solidified a $100-billion increase in the national debt over five years."

Corcoran may be correct but Harper has never been able to govern as a majority Conservative when he has needed other parties to pass every budget.

Five years ago this week Stephen Harper led the Canadian Conservatives to a general election victory. In this video message to his supporters, he celebrates the achievements of his government over the last five years.