Check communication for an understanding of using the words certain, impossible,
likely and unlikely to happen and placing the event on a
probability scale.

Instructions:

Place the 10-foot piece of ribbon on the floor in a straight line.

Ask students to name things they believe are impossible
, such as raining ice cream cones. List their responses on the board.

Ask students to name events that are certain
to happen, such as the sun coming up in the morning. Write their responses on
the chalkboard.

Select three students to stand on the Probability Line and hold the cards saying 1=CERTAIN,
0=IMPOSSIBLE, and 50/50
.

Take out the cards with the pre-written events from Copy Master #3. Set the
card "You will win the lottery" aside for later use.

Select a student and give him/her a card with a statement from Copy Master #3,
such as "There will be a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean this year" and ask if
the event is impossible, is unlikely, has a 50/50 chance of happening, is
likely, or is certain to happen. Ask the student to go to the Probability Line
and stand where he/she believes the event should be. Ask the student to explain
his/her reasoning.

Encourage all students to participate in a discussion about each event and
where it belongs on the probability line.

Continue this process until all cards with events have been handed out.

Give the card "You will win the lottery" to a student to place on the
Probability Line. Ask the student to explain that choice. Ask all students to
discuss the answer.

time needed

~30 minutes

instructional design

Interactive demonstration and discussion

materials needed

Ribbon approximately 10 feet in length

Fourteen 8 1/2 x 11 cards with the following titles:1=CERTAIN, 0=IMPOSSIBLE, and 50/50
Using Copy Master #3, Walk on the Probability Line, write each event
onto the remaining cards.

learner outcomes

Students will be able to describe probability by evaluating the
likelihood that certain events will occur.

Students will be able to evaluate the likelihood that events will
occur by using a probability scale.