The
start of the Russian air campaign in Syria marks a dramatic step change
in the Syrian Civil War and reflects a determined effort by Russian
President Vladimir Putin to bolster his bargaining position ahead of any
negotiations over a political resolution to the conflict. The majority
of Russian airstrikes in the first two days of strikes reportedly
targeted Syrian rebel factions in northwestern Syria rather than ISIS
positions in the east of the country, revealing the immediate Russian
priority to strengthen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and ensure his
role in any future political transition. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash
Carter stated that the strikes were “tantamount to pouring gasoline on
the fire,” and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry asserted that the
U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition will not abate and will instead
“dramatically accelerate” its own airstrikes in Syria……Although
President Putin has publicly claimed that sending Russian ground troops
to Syria is “out of the question,” evidence is growing that he is
preparing a broader intervention. The Russian Black Sea Fleet
conducted new naval exercises involving landing ships offshore from the
expanding Russian naval facility at the Port of Tartus on the Syrian
Coast, and Putin is apparently considering granting combatant status to Russian forces already in Syria.