LAS CRUCES — It wasn't the worst. It wasn't the best. But the relatively flat economy in the past year is probably what Las Cruces, Doña Ana County and southern New Mexico can expect to see again in 2016. The Sun-News reached out to local economic experts and several industry leaders to get their take on what to expect. While the overall economy looks to remain flat, some areas, such as industrial manufacturing and logistics, as well as value-added agricultural products, seem promising. There is growth on the horizon for our medical and aerospace industries as well.
Here's what several of them had to say.

Overall economy

James Peach, professor of economy, NMSU

"More of the same is likely to be the story of the Las Cruces economy in 2016 and that is not a nice story. From Nov. 2014 to Nov. 2015 (December data are not yet available), Las Cruces non-farm payroll employment decreased by 1,200 jobs. In fact, the Las Cruces economy has gained very few jobs since the start of the national recession in December 2007. In 2014, Las Cruces per-capita income was $30,593, or 64 percent of the average for all U.S. metropolitan areas, and this will not change much when the 2015 data are available. The poverty rate in Las Cruces (29.6 percent in 2014) is nearly double the national average (15.5 percent). By almost any measure, the Las Cruces economy is not doing well. None of these rather dreary statistics are likely to change much in 2016.

"Is there an upside to this story? Yes, while Las Cruces remains a relatively poor area that is not growing rapidly, the local economy has been stable and it is likely to remain stable because nearly 30 percent of payroll jobs are in the public sector. The area’s major employers (New Mexico State University, the Las Cruces Public Schools, and White Sands Missile Range) are public sector organizations that will contribute to stability but not much growth in 2016."

Chris Erickson, professor of economy, NMSU

"2015 was a tough year for Las Cruces. Employment fell by 1.7 percent through November, the worst performance since the height of the financial crisis in 2009. Unemployment stands at 7.2 percent, higher than state and national unemployment, up from 6.4 percent a year ago. 2016 will almost certainly be better. I expect employment growth to turn positive, something around 1 positive. Unemployment likely will level off and start to decline. NMSU is likely to remain level or even contract a little as enrollment growth continues to be a struggle. WSMR has some excess capacity, so is looking to expand. The success and timing is uncertain, but if WSMR does manage to expand, that would be a boon for the local economy. The decline in energy prices is bad news for New Mexico. Drilling rig (numbers have) declined by more than half to 41, which is bad news for energy workers. State revenues are likely to suffer also if the weak energy market continues. Low oil prices will adversely affect state revenues, which could have knock-on effects on NMSU and on LCPS. Growth in border traffic at Santa Teresa will continue to be a bright spot for the county."

"We will to see activity in Santa Teresa. We are not going to slow down in terms of momentum there. The challenge will be the same we've had the last 24 months in getting the facilities needed in that area."

Jerry Pacheco, president, Border Industrial Association

"We will continue to recruit new industry and create new jobs in Santa Teresa. Our sister state south of the border is Chihuahua, and its auto and aerospace industries are booming, providing us with a great opportunity to attract suppliers to these industrial bases and have them locate in southern New Mexico. It is the biggest economic development opportunity that New Mexico has for the foreseeable future."

Economic development

Troy Tudor, Greater Las Cruces Chamber of Commerce

"I am excited going into 2016. I see it as a year where we will have a lot of hard work to do and a lot of obstacles to overcome. I also see it as a year where we have great opportunities to impact our community and move it forward. I am optimistic because there seems to be a genuine interest among our elected officials to work on our local economy with the goal of creating more and better jobs, something that is so desperately needed and will benefit so many. I know that if our community will pool our resources and work together, 2016 can be a year where we positively change the lives of individuals and give hope to our young professionals. There can be a bright future here in Las Cruces and Southern New Mexico if we work hard to make it happen."

Davin Lopez, MVEDA

"I think starting off, much of how we envision 2016 is based off our current potential development projects in the pipeline. That's our crystal ball. It's healthy with strong momentum in aerospace and value-added agriculture. Going toward aerospace, we are going to see a lot more business development at Spaceport America and more activity in that area. Spaceport staff has been working hard to build a variety of business development strategies. 2016 will be a banner year for development at Spaceport America. Additionally, the legislative session will set the tone for economic development across the state of New Mexico. I have to say, we left this year with strong momentum and aligned interests between the New Mexico Economic Development Department, the city of Las Cruces and Doña Ana County. We've seen opportunities to structure unique incentives. From the local perspective, although the Legislature will set the tone for what will happen from the state perspective, locally we've seen the city become much more aggressive with economic development and with the county support ... we are really moving forward."

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Members of the public stroll around around Spaceport America during its first open house in October 2015. Reflected in the windows are some of the about 30 planes that flew to the Spaceport for the event.(Photo: Jett Loe / Sun-News)

Aerospace

Dumitru Popescu, ARCA

"We couldn't be happier with the amount of activity and quality of aerospace companies choosing southern New Mexico and Spaceport America for their research and development of the latest technologies. We believe that the given flight space area makes New Mexico the perfect place for aerospace activities. ARCA is firmly committed to Las Cruces and the opportunity to manufacture and mass produce our UAV the AirStrato and the ArcaBoard which are both revolutionary technologies that will shape our future. Both of these products would have been more difficult if not for the support of MVEDA, the city of Las Cruces, and workforce funding from the federal government."

Pat Hynes, International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight
"More than 1 million drones were estimated to be under the Christmas tree this year, according to the Dec. 27 Daily Launch published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Daily. We use them in our student launch program to test sensors and to teach students how to analyze digital data. We teach middle school teachers and students to get them interested and capable early because of this growing trend to understand flight. NMSU's Physical Science Laboratory is a member of the FAA Center of Excellence for Unmanned Aerial Systems. They have been a research leader in this field for many years and run a test center at the Las Cruces Airport. ARCA Aerospace's US headquarters is at the airport and they have multiple commercial drones under construction. Big picture for Las Cruces; we have a growth opportunity here in commercializing our years of skill and knowledge.

"Women are now eligible for all combat roles in the military. The military is the largest educator in our country. This message to our country will bubble up to board rooms from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. We have a large military presence in our community. Women in leadership in all fields is a trend to watch. Gender roles require women to be better just to stay in competition, regardless of the job. Can women carry an 85-pound pack in combat? We can if we train, physical strength comes with training, just like leadership. Leaders are not born, they are trained. Technology companies have done the research, work teams with women are 40 percent more successful than all-male teams.

"Virtual reality is a technology trend for gamers right now. Yet, it has potential to grow as a multi-functional tool for educators and seniors. The New York Times recently sent the Google VR viewers to its Sunday Times subscribers. While a bit clunky, it is a tool for designers and those who want to visualize a tool or component. The Digital Media Institute at NMSU may be able to take on this trend in the future. They have done exceedingly well in their short life, I count on them to keep us in this game.

"Keep your eye on the Virgin Galactic website for updates on their return to flight timeline. They are relentless. Speaking of relentless, also watch Blue Origin in Van Horn Texas. They have already flown to space, and re-entered their New Shepard vehicle this year. We hope to have at least two experiments on their next flight scheduled for this summer. Blue Origin was founded by Jeff Bezos in 2000. Lonnie Sumpter, then executive director of what is now Spaceport America, said at the time, finally somebody gets it. Hallelujah! That was 15 years ago. Virgin Galactic was founded in 2004. The winner in the commercial race to space has been SpaceX, founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. By far the biggest story in the space industry for 2015 was the re-entry of their first stage booster on Dec. 21 at the Cape. SpaceX has removed their equipment from Spaceport America, but are still tenants. Lets hope this success will mark their return to our spaceport, built as a launch and re-entry site. We have to compete for their return like Texas did to get them to build their orbital spaceport. This is a competitive business."

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Elephant Butte resident Cathy Vickers, in white, center, along with other members of the public stroll around Spaceport America during its first open house.(Photo: Jett Loe / Sun-News)

Downtown

Arianna Parsons, Downtown Las Cruces Partnership

"2015 was a momentous year for Downtown Las Cruces, but 2016 may prove to be even bigger. Looking ahead, what may strike most visitors to the area could be its very physical look and feel. With the scheduled completion of the plaza, the beginning of the conversion of Church and Water back to a two way street and new building and housing developments, a reimagined downtown landscape will start to take form. Gone will be the days of quiet streets. Visitors will instead be met with the hum of activity signifying great things to come. New businesses will move into the area, creating new jobs. New pathways between neighborhoods will be created and our districts will feel more energetic, connected and inclusive than ever before. Technology in the form of an app for the Historic Districts will aid this connectivity, putting the events, culture, news and merchants of the areas at the fingertips of every citizen of Las Cruces and every visitor to the region. I can think of little else more exciting than witnessing the visions of thousands take shape and begin to create real value to a community. There will be many opportunities for all community members to contribute. There will be events to attend and charrettes in which to participate as we begin to reimagine the next vision for downtown. "

Medical

Denten Park, MountainView Medical Center

"Nationwide, 2016 will be an interesting year for healthcare, and the medical community in Las Cruces is no different. There are several national trends that are happening locally as well.

"Access: Providing convenient access to healthcare is an industry trend that will continue locally – at MountainView we are expanding our current ER and breaking ground on New Mexico’s first free-standing emergency department to give our community quicker, easier access to doctors. Las Cruces will also continue to see many clinics and doctors’ offices with expanded hours, weekend hours, walk-in availability, urgent care centers and other alternative scheduling structures to accommodate patient preference.

"Education: A shortage of primary care physicians continues to be a problem statewide, but in 2016, the Burrell College of Osteopathic Medicine will welcome its first class of 125 medical students, a project that will help supply Las Cruces and the entire state with qualified physicians for years to come. Many of the students will be able to complete their entire medical education in Las Cruces, from medical school to clerkships and residencies, in partnership with MountainView and other local providers, who are working with Burrell to provide hands-on training opportunities for students.

"Technology: Healthcare has always been a technologically advanced field, but in 2016, look for technology to play an even larger role in patient care. Patients can already interact with physicians using email and access their health records online (at MountainView, this is done through our secure patient portal system), but many health systems, including MountainView, are exploring with virtual visits, where patients can see a physician through a webcam for certain conditions, like psychiatric care. Robotic surgery continues to be available, often reducing scarring and recovery time, and advanced imaging technology, like brain mapping, continues to advance to give already skilled doctors more treatment options.

"Preventative Care: With the Affordable Care Act, there has been a shift from treating illness to focusing on wellness. More patients than ever have access to insurance, so managing chronic diseases, weight control, and preventative screenings will become easier for patients to access, giving rise to models like MountainView's Wellness Clinic, which focuses on individualized planning for long-term health benefits. Patients are taking more control of their health than ever, using cell phone apps and internet programs to track and trend their results.

"In Las Cruces, we are lucky to have a strong medical community, that seems to get stronger each year. As we add new physicians and new services, more and more patients are able to get their healthcare locally, instead of leaving the community. At MountainView, we’re honored to be trusted with the care of your family, and look forward to improving the health of our community in 2016."

Jason Gibbs may be reached at 575-541-5451. Follow him on Twitter @fjgwriter.