The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.84 million km2, 1.31 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A good proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration compared with 2016 (see next post) adding to the chances of a record low extent. However, when that low concentration ice is gone the solid land fast ice on the coast will likely slow down further melt to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in three of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

First I want to thank you again for these daily updates.I think the main limitation of the model is not separating the Antarctic sea ice into its constituent regions. This is true in the Arctic as well, but in the Arctic many of the various regions do interact with each other - once the Laptev or Beaufort are cleared the CAB is more easily attacked, once Chukchi is melted the ESS is next, etc., this applies both to melt progression and to export between regions.In the Antarctic, due to having a continent in the middle, the interaction between the various regions in summer is minimal to nonexistent. So it pays off looking at the various regions as separate entities. Such an analysis (I am using AMSR2 area but I expect other metrics to behave similarly) reveals the fact that this year is leading mostly in the Ross Sea sector - the same one that went to almost zero in the past two winters (Feb 2018 and Feb 2017). The Ross Sea is what generates the negative result, as its normal losses are simply higher than the current extent. This is obviously not going to happen, and although an early and complete melt-out of the Ross Sea may have some serious implications, a record sea ice minimum is not necessarily one of them.In the largest and most difficult to melt sector, the Weddel Sea, this year follows the previous two years to the letter and can reasonably be expected to bottom at the same low level by mid-Feb 2019.All in all, I'm not sure if the expectation of a new record is justified, though it's certainly possible. At least one sector will have to break past limitations for that to happen.

Extent loss of 194k , 18k less than average on this day. The first time below average for a long time. However, the loss is more than that on this day in 2016 and 2017, the years of record low minima.

Extent is 2nd lowest, at a reducing 77 k greater than 2016 on this day, and 1,068 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.352 million km2 (12.6%) greater than average so far, with on average 67.3% of extent loss for the season done and on average 54 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.86 million km2, 1.29 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A good proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration compared with 2016 (see next post) adding to the chances of a record low extent. However, when that low concentration ice is gone the solid land fast ice on the coast will likely slow down further melt to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in three of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.

I think the main limitation of the model is not separating the Antarctic sea ice into its constituent regions.

In the Antarctic, due to having a continent in the middle, the interaction between the various regions in summer is minimal to nonexistent. So it pays off looking at the various regions as separate entities. Such an analysis (I am using AMSR2 area but I expect other metrics to behave similarly) reveals the fact that this year is leading mostly in the Ross Sea sector - the same one that went to almost zero in the past two winters (Feb 2018 and Feb 2017). The Ross Sea is what generates the negative result, as its normal losses are simply higher than the current extent. This is obviously not going to happen, and although an early and complete melt-out of the Ross Sea may have some serious implications, a record sea ice minimum is not necessarily one of them.In the largest and most difficult to melt sector, the Weddel Sea, this year follows the previous two years to the letter and can reasonably be expected to bottom at the same low level by mid-Feb 2019.All in all, I'm not sure if the expectation of a new record is justified, though it's certainly possible. At least one sector will have to break past limitations for that to happen.

I wish that Antarctic Sea Ice extent and area was easily downloadable from somewhere as .csv or excel files as for the Arctic extent and area from JAXA and NSIDC. Is it?

You may well be right about the resistance of the Weddell Sea - as was also pointed out by Tealight. BUT - the attached image suggests that the Weddell Sea Ice is looking a bit more vulnerable than it did in 2016. So I am sticking with my guess at a likely minimum below 2 million km2, but nowhere near that produced by the spreadsheet. After all that only needs a minimum of 150 k less than in 2016-17.

There is one question for which I have not seen a good answer. Why has this sudden loss of Antarctic Sea ice over the last 3 years happened?

The 'flip flop' occurred in 2014 I think with the switch of a few of the major pacific natural drivers ( driven by the collapse of rates of dimming as China begins to clean up its act??) coupled with the reduction in ozone hole forcings on the Katabatic winds flowing off Antarctica and the circumpolar winds/current fell slack?

In the same way the growth in antarctic sea ice was driven by man and Nature I believe this 'flip flop' is also a collaboration?

As I see it there is upward of 30 years of warmth to now begin pushing into the continent?

The 10 HPa winds over the pole over the southern winter are now beginning to ape those of the polar night jet across the north pole also?

Full depth atmospheric mixing will bring some extreme weather to the temperate southern land masses?

The thing I am nor too sure in my mind on is cross hemisphere interactions in the upper/lower atmosphere?

We have seen the northern polar jet 'apparently' cross the pole and end up over S.Africa so could we see constructive/destructive interference now as the Southern hemisphere's atmosphere ( and lower strat?) become as 'tweaked' as we have seen our Northern hemisphere Atmosphere become since the turn of the century?

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KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

Sorry - wasn't specific enough. I am looking for and not finding daily Antarctic extent and area data by region in a nice simple format - e.g. .csv and .xls . It's so easy downloading the NSIDC and JAXA files but they don't do the regional data for the Antarctic

Logged

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!""And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

"There is one question for which I have not seen a good answer. Why has this sudden loss of Antarctic Sea ice over the last 3 years happened?"

I think it's the wind's fault

i don't thing that there is a single cause but that the system is buffering to a certain extent and once a tipping point is reached it rapidly caves in until the next level of resistance while the intervals and forces it takes will have to be higher on each new plateau that means further south/north and therefore insolation and number of melting days is reduced through orbital facts (earth orbit around the sun)

Sorry - wasn't specific enough. I am looking for and not finding daily Antarctic extent and area data by region in a nice simple format - e.g. .csv and .xls . It's so easy downloading the NSIDC and JAXA files but they don't do the regional data for the Antarctic

"There is one question for which I have not seen a good answer. Why has this sudden loss of Antarctic Sea ice over the last 3 years happened?"

I think it's the wind's fault

Maybe ocean stored heat reaching the area via underwater currents, which have also attacked the glacial ice there.

This is also my assumption, tried to tie this reduction in antarctic sea ice to the last el nino. The heat from this would have gone mostly southwards evidenced by abnormal heatwaves in Australia/New Zealand.

The drop in sea ice began with a pretty dramatic step function, downward, when sea ice should have been growing....A JAXA video of 8/1 to 9/17/16 (attached) shows the ice loss. Was there a time correlated weather event?

The thing is, most of the Antarctic sea ice is seasonal FYI, so the "memory" of the system is quite low, as opposed to the Arctic where MYI used to dominate and still has important buffering effects. Therefore a one-time crash should not have been felt two years after the event.In addition, enhanced melting of the glaciers and ice shelves is expected to lead to freshening of the sea surface and growth in sea ice, as postulated by Hansen, so I don't think warming is to blame for the lack of sea ice. This is again very different from the Arctic due to having the continent in the middle, while Greenland melt runoff flows through Nares, Baffin and the Greenland Sea, all of which have strong southbound currents carrying the fresh water away from the main body of sea ice in the CAB.I am also guessing the explanation has to do with wind patterns around Antarctica (or perhaps the monster El Nino of 2016) but this is far out of my league.

Extent loss of 157k , 36k less than average on this day. The 2nd day of below extent loss average after a long period of above average extent loss. However, the loss is more than that on this day in 2016, the year of the record low minimum.

Extent is 2nd lowest, at a mere 17 k greater than 2016 on this day, and 1,045 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.352 million km2 (12.6%) greater than average so far, with on average 67.3% of extent loss for the season done and on average 54 days to minimum. Extent loss in the last 3 days of 2016 was very low - the chance of 2018 being at the record low for the day before 1 Jan 2019 is high.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.89 million km2, 1.26 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A good but reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration compared with 2016 (see next post) adding to the chances of a record low extent. However, when that low concentration ice is gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow down further melt to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in three of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.

Sorry - wasn't specific enough. I am looking for and not finding daily Antarctic extent and area data by region in a nice simple format - e.g. .csv and .xls . It's so easy downloading the NSIDC and JAXA files but they don't do the regional data for the Antarctic

The drop in sea ice began with a pretty dramatic step function, downward, when sea ice should have been growing....A JAXA video of 8/1 to 9/17/16 (attached) shows the ice loss. Was there a time correlated weather event?

The thing is, most of the Antarctic sea ice is seasonal FYI, so the "memory" of the system is quite low, as opposed to the Arctic where MYI used to dominate and still has important buffering effects. Therefore a one-time crash should not have been felt two years after the event.

<Cut>

Yep, and the El nino explanation won't suffice on it's own. Maybe it the winds, or some strengthening of a warm current somehow making its way near the ice. Not saying this could be related to AMOC slowdown though, that would be jumping to conclusions way too early. At least it should be first checked if the exchange between indian Ocean and Southern Atlantic has diminished... Or... Again everything moves and the causal relationships are not clear., The kind of stuff that overthinking it might drive a weaker scientist into hoodoo science. Glad I don't have to do the analyses on these.

The drop in sea ice began with a pretty dramatic step function, downward, when sea ice should have been growing....A JAXA video of 8/1 to 9/17/16 (attached) shows the ice loss. Was there a time correlated weather event?

The thing is, most of the Antarctic sea ice is seasonal FYI, so the "memory" of the system is quite low, as opposed to the Arctic where MYI used to dominate and still has important buffering effects. Therefore a one-time crash should not have been felt two years after the event.In addition, enhanced melting of the glaciers and ice shelves is expected to lead to freshening of the sea surface and growth in sea ice, as postulated by Hansen, so I don't think warming is to blame for the lack of sea ice. This is again very different from the Arctic due to having the continent in the middle, while Greenland melt runoff flows through Nares, Baffin and the Greenland Sea, all of which have strong southbound currents carrying the fresh water away from the main body of sea ice in the CAB.I am also guessing the explanation has to do with wind patterns around Antarctica (or perhaps the monster El Nino of 2016) but this is far out of my league.

I quite agree. The step function has to reflect either a large scale change somewhere stabilized by a feedback from the Antarctic sea ice and waters; or another variable having changed elsewhere influencing condition massively. In either case, the cause is not local to Antarctica.

My main point is that we know when the shift occurred, although not why. And we also know that the shift took place in the middle of the Antarctic winter, a fact that seems to me likely to prove diagnostic.

Extent loss of 148k , 62k less than average on this day. The 3rd day of below average extent loss after a long period of above average extent loss. However, the loss is more than that on this day in 2016, the year of the record low minimum.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 52 k le4ss than 2016 on this day, and 1.019 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.259 million km2 (11.3%) greater than average so far, with on average 69.8% of extent loss for the season done and on average 52 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.96 million km2, 1.19 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. When that low concentration ice is gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in three of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

_____________________________________________________________________It seems that the climate scientists have not come up with a generally accepted reason for this third year of much lower Antarctic sea ice extent.

The conventional wisdom (not just from Hansen by any means) is that as Antarctic ice sheet melt increases, additional fresh and cold water should encourage an increase in sea ice. The last 3 years data is in contradiction to that. When the GRACE mass data re-starts (from early 2019), perhaps this will tell us the extent to which the rate of Antarctic ice sheet mass loss has increased or decreased over the last 3 years.

"There is one question for which I have not seen a good answer. Why has this sudden loss of Antarctic Sea ice over the last 3 years happened?"

I think it's the wind's fault

Maybe ocean stored heat reaching the area via underwater currents, which have also attacked the glacial ice there.

The change really started in 2015 as the El Nino built. The attached graph shows the NSIDC daily rankings for extent since the beginning of 2014. As can be seen the daily ranking was only less than 26th on three occasions before the beginning of August 2105. The rankings then plummet to well below 2014 until the end of the year. Rankings jumped around between 5 and 25 for most of 2016 until they dropped quickly below 10 at the end of August 2016 and remained below 10 ever since.

In my view this is not because the ice has a 'memory' of earlier conditions. It is because global sea and Air temperatures have been at record highs since 2014. As the ice expands during winter it is butting up against warmer waters in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans which limits growth and makes melt easier.

Said to a friend in early 2016 that the hot spot of warming might be moving to southern hemisphere for a while, as it looked like northernmost Atlantic started to lose highest temperature anomalies then. And the Antarctic ice went down. Expected it to reverse back by now but no. Some very large swing almost has to have happened during last 3 years. Possibly too complex for my brain right now. Won't try to figure it out. Enough to ponder otherwise too.

Extent loss of 143k , 82k less than average on this day. The 4th day of below average extent loss after a long period of above average extent loss. However, the loss is more than that on this day in 2016, the year of the record low minimum.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 70 k less than 2016 on this day, and 1.001 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.173 million km2 (10.4%) greater than average so far, with on average 71.2% of extent loss for the season done and on average 51 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.04 million km2, 1.11 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in three of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

_____________________________________________________________________It seems that the climate scientists have not come up with a generally accepted reason for this third year of much lower Antarctic sea ice extent, though there has been much speculation about this in this thread

The conventional wisdom (not just from Hansen by any means) is that as Antarctic ice sheet melt increases, additional fresh and cold water should encourage an increase in sea ice. The last 3 years data is in contradiction to that. I can find no science paper on this contradiction at all. When the GRACE mass data re-starts (from early 2019), perhaps this will tell us the extent to which the rate of Antarctic ice sheet mass loss has increased or decreased over the last 3 years._______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________It seems that the climate scientists have not come up with a generally accepted reason for this third year of much lower Antarctic sea ice extent, though there has been much speculation about this in this thread

The conventional wisdom (not just from Hansen by any means) is that as Antarctic ice sheet melt increases, additional fresh and cold water should encourage an increase in sea ice. The last 3 years data is in contradiction to that. I can find no science paper on this contradiction at all. When the GRACE mass data re-starts (from early 2019), perhaps this will tell us the extent to which the rate of Antarctic ice sheet mass loss has increased or decreased over the last 3 years._______________________________________________________________________

As yet the rate of freshwater injection onto the Southern Ocean may not have yet reached a level large enough to counter the loss of sea ice due to global warming, as judged from the large sea ice area reduction that has accompanied the warming of the past few years.

Nevertheless, it is clear that amplifying feedbacks will produce increasingly rapid sea level rise if fossil fuel emissions and global temperatures continue to increase unabated. Even in the case of slowly changing paleoclimate forcings, ice sheet disintegration on a number of occasions achieved a rate that produced meter and multi-meter sea level rise in a century, confirming the existence and the potential large magnitude of amplifying feedbacks. Once the global warming effect on ice sheets is sufficient to strongly spur the amplifying feedbacks, we would expect the rate of mass loss by the ice sheets and the rate of sea level rise to grow nonlinearly, at a faster and faster rate.

A capable means of assessing possible Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss became available with the first precise monitoring of Earth’s gravitational field from a satellite (Fig. 17). Early results from the gravity satellite showed shockingly rapid growth of the mass loss rates for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, for Greenland through 2012 and for Antarctica through 2015 (Fig. 17). Doubling times for mass loss rates were only of the order of a decade for both Greenland and Antarctica. However, in Greenland in 2013 and Antarctica in 2016 the rapid growth of mass loss was interrupted by a negative feedback: increased precipitation (snowfall).

Decreased summer melt and increased snowfall over Greenland were associated with a change of summer weather patterns. The 2012 summer was characterized by sunny weather and a steady stream of warm air streaming from the south over Greenland, but subsequent summers have had a high proportion of cloudy days with moist marine air. Increased snowfall over Antarctica in the past two years was associated with reduced sea ice in the adjacent Southern Ocean, which coincided with rapid global warming during that period. The magnitude of the sea ice loss may have been related to the coincident strong El Niño. On the longer run, it has been predicted that increasing ice discharge from Antarctica, especially in the Western Hemisphere from the Ross to Weddell seas, will tend to cause an increase of sea ice cover, altering the precipitation feedback (see Fig. 16).

Thanks Sleepy - I've saved that.Two opposing forces - increased cold fresh water from increased melt of the AIS and shelves,- increased ocean warmth (e.g. Tealight's AWP graphs) and atmospheric warmth.and- Loads more energy and water vapour in the system.- so increased mass from loads more snowfall, and loads more melt at the surface and below.

The sleeping giant of Antarctica awakes?

meanwhile.....

JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent - 5,423,435 km2（December 31, 2018）

Extent loss of 194k , 13 k more than the average for this day. The loss is again more than that on this day in 2016, the year of the record low minimum.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 134 k less than 2016 on this day, and 1.065 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.108 million km2 (10.3%) greater than average so far, with on average 71.7% of extent loss for the season done and on average 50 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.89 million km2, 1.26 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.(Note that a minor correction to the spreadsheet made -change of year glitch). A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in two of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 110 k less than 2016 on this day, and 1.088 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.163 million km2 (10.0%) greater than average so far, with on average 72.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average 49 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.91 million km2, 1.24 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.(Note that a minor correction to the spreadsheet was made -change of year glitch). A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in two of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 108 k less than 2016 on this day, and 1.075 million km2 below 2017. Extent loss from maximum is 1.138 million km2 (9.6%) greater than average so far, with on average 73.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average 48 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.94 million km2, 1.21 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in two of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 171 k less than 2017 on this day, and 1.069 million km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 1.117 million km2 (9.3%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 74.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average 47 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 0.96 million km2, 1.19 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 4 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 175 k less than 2017 on this day, and 1.007 million km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 1.117 million km2 (9.3%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 74.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average 47 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.01 million km2, 1.13 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 4 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 225 k less than 2017 on this day, and 946 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 1.021 million km2 (8.3%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 77% of extent loss for the season done and on average 45 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.05 million km2, 1.10 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.99 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 372 k less than 2017 on this day, and 763 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 915k km2 (7.1%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 81% of extent loss for the season done and on average 41 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.15 million km2, 1 million km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. A reducing proportion of the remaining ice is at low concentration. With that low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.99 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 377 k less than 2017 on this day, and 674 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 877k km2 (6.7%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 81.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average 40 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.19 million km2, 960k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is on the decline as 40 days of the highest insolation have now passed.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 238 k less than 2017 on this day, and 615 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 822k km2 (6.2%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 82.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average 39 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.24 million km2, 900k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is on the decline as 42 days of the highest insolation have now passed.

Peak insulation was on the 21st of December. In my calender it's just 22 days and we still have about 95% of the peak solar radiation. It doesn't drop significantly until February.

The main reason for the AWP anomaly drop are the below average sea ice area losses.

It is certainly true that 'tis February when the sine curve of daylight hours hits the downward arm in the South and the upward arm in the North. As a SAD sufferer I can't wait (too many years in the tropics).

It is also true that it is 22 days (12th of Jan) after the solstice. One has to add to that the 22 days before the solstice plus the solstice day itself for the total number of days when daylight hours have been longer (South) or shorter (North), i.e. 43 45 days.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 176 k less than 2017 on this day, and 539 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 794k km2 (5.9%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 83.5% of extent loss for the season done and on average 38 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.28 million km2, 870k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is gradually declining as 45 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 110 k less than 2017 on this day, and 539 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 732k km2 (5.4%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 84.4% of extent loss for the season done and on average 37 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.34 million km2, 810k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has reduced confidence in that prediction.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is gradually declining as 47 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, (and about to become 2nd after 2017). Extent is 22 k less than 2017 on this day, and 391 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 664k km2 (4.9%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 85.3% of extent loss for the season done and on average 36 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.41 million km2, 740k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has reduced confidence in that prediction.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is gradually declining as 49 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, (and about to become 2nd after 2017). Extent is 45 k less than 2017 on this day, and 379 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 608k km2 (4.4%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 86.2% of extent loss for the season done and on average 36 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.46 million km2, 680k km2 less than the record low in 2017. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has reduced confidence in that prediction.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is gradually declining as 51 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day.Extent loss from maximum is 386k km2 (2.7%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 88.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average 32 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.69 million km2, 460k km2 less than the record low in 2017. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.1 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has considerably reduced confidence in that prediction.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential (AWP) in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is now quickly declining as 57 days of the highest insolation have now passed and daily area loss is so far below average. The cumulative AWP will certainly end up as 2nd lowest , behind the 2016-17 season.

After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.

Evolution of subsurface temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean between 2004 and 2017:

Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day.Extent loss from maximum is 327k km2 (2.3%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 88.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average 31 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.74 million km2, 410k km2 less than the record low in 2017. Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.1 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has considerably reduced confidence in that prediction.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential (AWP) in the Antarctic is also high and well above average. This effect is now quickly declining as 59 days of the highest insolation have now passed and daily area loss is so far below average. The cumulative AWP will certainly end up as 2nd lowest , behind the 2016-17 season.