The overall worry here is that the Toronto Maple Leafs, as of Monday, had the third highest PDO in the National Hockey League. Their shooting percentage was 10.1% and their save percentage was .938. Add those two numbers together and you get 1.039. The highest that Randy Carlyle’s Anaheim teams finished under him since we’ve had PDO data is 1.011.

There’s a scattering of teams there in quality. The 2011 Boston Bruins won the Stanley Cup, and the 2010 Edmonton Oilers ended up in 30th and got the first overall pick. The 2010 Washington Capitals won the Presidents’ Trophy, but got beaten in the first round. The 2011 Dallas Stars and the 2010 Colorado Avalanche became poster boys for regression: both teams had a strong start, and the Stars fell out of the playoffs on the last day. The Avalanche still managed to finish 8th.

Since the Leafs have played 17 games, here are those teams’ records after the first 17 games:

After 17

W

L

OTL

Points/48

2010 Capitals

10

3

4

67.8

2010 Oilers

8

8

1

48.0

2011 Stars

10

7

0

56.5

2012 Rangers

10

4

3

64.9

2011 Bruins

11

5

1

64.9

2012 Stars

11

6

0

62.1

2012 Capitals

10

6

1

59.3

2010 Avalanche

12

3

2

73.4

It’s funny how similar PDOs can have such different effects on some teams. The Oilers had better shooting and save luck than six other teams here, but they were .500 after 17 games. The point of this is that a high PDO can make good teams look great, and bad teams look good.

Here are those same teams’ records from Games 18 through 48 in that same season:

Games 18-48

W

L

OTL

Points/48

2010 Capitals

20

9

2

65.0

2010 Oilers

8

19

4

31.0

2011 Stars

19

7

5

66.6

2012 Rangers

21

8

2

68.1

2011 Bruins

16

9

6

58.8

2012 Stars

14

15

2

46.5

2012 Capitals

16

13

2

52.6

2010 Avalanche

15

12

4

52.6

Only the 2011 Stars and 2012 New York Rangers improved their records. The Stars implosion would come later in the season, but the purpose of today’s post is to see whether the Leafs have banked enough wins with an elevated team save percentage to make the playoffs. It’s certainly possible: they have 31 games left and are three points clear of the 8th-place team. Last season with 31 to go, they were just two up of the next team, but the Capitals, who were chasing them, held a game in hand.

A commenter named ‘advancedstatsareafraud’, a harbinger if there ever was one, wrote the following under that post:

When the leafs, with excessive PDO and way too low Fenwick, make the playoff – then finally people will come to realize that advanced stats are a complete fraud. The leafs laugh and are better then all this “regression to mean” talk.

I dont’ care about this PDO nonsense. Mclaren and Orr will pull the leafs into the playoffs kicking in screaming with a few good punches along the way.

The bad news is that the Leafs are currently outplaying their means. They’re 5-2 in one-goal games and 5-5 in contests decided by two goals or more. There’s every indication that one shot or save that goes the wrong way could result in changing a game.

Anyway, total up the above teams’ records and look at the key: points per 48 games:

Wins

Losses

OTL

Points/48

After 17

82

42

12

62.1

Games 18-48

129

92

27

55.2

After 48

211

134

39

57.6

It doesn’t look like much of a drop considering nearly half the season has been played already. Over 82 the difference would be much greater, but it’s still enough to change the Leafs’ overall fortune. Toronto are at 10-7-0, on pace for 56.5 points over 48 games. It’s expected that something around that number could be the number to get into the playoffs. Right now, I wouldn’t bet money on the Leafs’ maintaining their current level of winning, based on what has happened to teams in the past. They’re right on the cusp where the four or five points that could be explained by PDO regression to the mean could put them on the outside-looking-in.

Right now, the Leafs are relying on out-scoring the opposition and not out-shooting them. While they’ve generally had more scoring chances than the opposition, it’s been found that over time, scoring chances sync up with shot differential statistics. Right now the Leafs are benefitting from some good puck luck, and that’s driving their record moreso than coaching, leadership, size or being an improved hockey team.

So, no, if the Leafs keep doing what they’re doing, I don’t expect them to win 10 out of 17 games to make the playoffs. Teams over a 1.030 PDO in the last three seasons have had an observed drop in points per 48 games of seven. That would put Toronto on a 52-point pace for the remainder of this season with all the wins they have banked. Would that be enough to make the playoffs? Not unless the team improves.

15 Comments |

I’ve ballparked the Leafs in the same territory that I expect the Jets, Flames and Oilers to occupy at season’s end – somewhere south of the cutoff line but likely not in the top end of the draft order.

They have enough pieces to keep from being entirely terrible. I’m not certain that they can go forward without first moving back, though.

Excellent analysis, by the way. Discriminating the good from the “she ain’t pretty she just looks that way” teams is a valuable exercise. Too bad management (of any team) never seems to take the lessons to heart.

This season may cause an anomaly on all kinds of statistics, advanced or traditional. Year over year comparisons are only useful if the conditions are comparable. A compressed scheduled with more average games per week will have an impact on these stats. I’m not sure a 17 game comparison from a 48 game season vs an 82 game season would be valid. A comparison to the 1994-95 season would be more apt, but I doubt the stats are available. It may be necessary to wait out the season and see what these stats look like.

If gardiner comes back we actually won’t have AHLers playing over their head. We’ll have a top 4 D corps and a top 6 forward corps of NHLers. A sheltered 3rd forward line of top prospects (Kadri +Frattin) + a European veteran (komarov) and a 3rd pairing of AHLers

It’s nice to see the Leafs off to a good start this season. I thought they would struggle out of the gate and perhaps improve as the season went along, given more time to implement what Carlyle is asking of them. It’s a completely different system than what Wilson employed, so some bumps are/were to be expected.

What I understand from reading the article is that the Leafs haven’t been playing great to start the season and have essentially been lucky to have such a good record so far. Fair enough.

That said I would expect the team to play better as things progress, meaning they still MIGHT continue to win more than they lose down the stretch, they’ll just have to win differently.

They’ll have to play better overall and not give up so many shots/game. The shooting % will come down, so they need to start getting more shots. OK.

In a nutshell the Leafs have been lucky to have the record they do so far, and stil need to make improvements, makes sense.

This year’s 48 game season versus the first 48 games of an 82 game season may not be a valid comparison.

You are trying to extrapolate the performance of games 18-48 using statistics from seasons where games 18-48 were part of an 82 game season. This season’s games 18-48 are the last 31 games of the season. In prior years, games 18-48 fall into the mostly the first half of the season.

There are a lot of factors that make this season an anomaly: games played on a more frequent basis, the quality of opponents are different (no cross divisional games), the meaning of games (we’ve hit the one-third mark already, in an 82 game season it would be the one-fifth mark), injuries/slumps on key players.

What might be more valid is looking at percentage of games played. Since they have played 35% of games, look at the first 29 games of the schedule versus the final 53.

PDO is an odd stat, because it is useful for quantifying luck, but it can also be impacted by skill. The 2010-2011 Bruins Badger mentioned for example, were probably a good enough team to exceed 1000 PDO without the aid of luck.

That said, the Leafs are not the 2010-2011 Bruins. I made this same argument about the Leafs on another board and caught a lot of flack for it, though I didn’t have the historical evidence to back up my claim.

Luckily for us Leaf fans, in a short season, anything can happen and if they keep up this hot streak to bank 3 or 4 more quick wins, regular regression very well not catch up with them by seasons end. Not to mention the traditional hockey arguments of a young team, under a new coach improving, the return of important injured players and the hope that Kadri and others playing well on limited minutes are given more ice time.