Chances of redemption are rare for Welsh national coaches with their backs to the wall. Beating England helps, but today in Cardiff Gareth Jenkins has the chance to unsaddle the monkey that has been on his back for most of the 16 months he has been in charge of the nation's aspirations.

Beat Australia and Wales will begin to see a path to their first World Cup semifinal since 1987. It would be their biggest day since winning the 2005 Six Nations, which heralded a year of turmoil, followed by the appointment of Jenkins. Lose and it looks like curtains in the quarter-finals in Paris three weeks tomorrow.

As usual, expectations are high. Jenkins said this week that the nation liked to think Wales were invincible at home; his overall record in charge - played 17, won five - undermines that but last November his side came within a whisker of beating the only team to have won the Webb Ellis Cup twice, coming from behind to draw 29-29. And the Wallabies are whingeing. They know the Millennium Stadium will hold near 73,000 Welsh voices today, with the support amplified by a closed roof. The chief executive of the Australian Rugby Union, John O'Neill, said: "Why the hell are we playing it in Cardiff? I don't think it's fair for Australia." Others think differently. If being at home weighs heavily on any side, it is the Welsh.

Since 2005 their travails have rarely been out of the headlines. They lost their Six Nations-winning coach, Mike Ruddock, after a player rebellion, and Jenkins' tenure has been accompanied by what he sees as a campaign by sections of the Welsh press, supported by former international heroes turned pundits.

This week attempts were apparently being made to stage peace talks with one newspaper. On the English side of the Severn Bridge it may sound like paranoia, but if Wales lose today Jenkins knows he will be pilloried. High on the charge sheet will be the dropping of James Hook in favour of Stephen Jones. The 22-year-old Hook has replaced Gavin Henson in the affections of the nation after taking over from Jones last November to lead that fightback against Australia at the Millennium Stadium. Today he will be on the bench.

Yesterday captain, coach and today's fly-half were equivocal when asked what it felt like to be at home. "I don't know if you could call it an advantage," said Gareth Thomas, the captain, who will be playing his 99th Test. "There are other factors involved." Jenkins initially shied away from direct criticism when asked whether Wales was too much of a media goldfish bowl, but his diplomatic response - "There are pluses and minuses, but it's a great place to be and it lifts us emotionally" - was followed by a bristling attack on Jones's rough treatment by the media. Jones himself stuck to the rugby, saying that four days in France was perfect preparation.

None of this is new. Ron Waldron was deposed before the 1991 World Cup and the New Zealander Steve Hansen, now part of a coaching triumvirate with the high...#8209;flying All Blacks, came within a game of losing the job before 2003. Few outside Wales can understand the pressures, but explanation came this week from one of those planning Wales's downfall today.

Until 18 months ago Scott Johnson was Wales's coach, having replaced Ruddock. He resigned to join Australia, but is still seen as part of the reason why Ruddock lost his players' support and then his job. Johnson would not go into further detail this week except to say: "Steve Hansen and I didn't always see eye to eye, Mike Ruddock and I didn't always see eye to eye. That's what happens in life. I don't win every argument at home either.

"In Australia I don't turn on the TV and see my ugly melon in the middle of it every night," he added. "Everywhere else you can walk away from rugby. In Wales everyone has an opinion, everyone is a coach or critic of some description and you live and breathe rugby and with that comes pressure.

"I can understand Gareth's position, but every coach in the World Cup is under pressure. Sure it may be worse here, but you have to get life in perspective and the reality is that sometimes you go to work and do a good job but that's not good enough.

"You can't accept the money, you can't take the kudos and not accept that that is part of it. You just have to keep the life balance and keep it in perspective. Go to work and give it your best and the critics can have their say."