Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Lucky 7*

canceled

0.44

The Neighbors (F)

0.49

Betrayal

0.49

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland

0.56

Last Man Standing (F)

0.66

Trophy Wife

0.71

Revenge

0.82

Nashville

0.82

Back in the Game

de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes

0.91

The Goldbergs

0.94

Castle

1.03

Super Fun Night

1.10

Once Upon A Time

1.14

The Middle

1.15

Grey's Anatomy

1.40

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

1.45

Scandal

1.52

Modern Family

1.96

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The nine week Fall ratings averages for Revenge and Nashville are virtually identical, as well as the ratings for their last 2 weeks. Then why does the cancellation bear judge Revenge is likely to be renewed and Nashville is just a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation?

It's a matter of proximity to the 88 episodes that currently seems to be the minimum level for extra profitable stripped syndication. Syndication is possible with any number of episodes, but fewer than 88-100 means much less revenue per episode.

At the end of this season Revenge will require only one more full season to reach 88 episodes, making it likely that ABC will endure almost any ratings level to get that fourth season. Nashville will require two more seasons. That extra hurdle could separate the two shows' fates.

“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”

Super Fun Night'sposition in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.

However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

@rJ Good Wife(which is both procedural & serialized )sold into syndication.Gossip Girl, One Tree Hill,The OC which are serialized soaps are syndicated.Chiller bought & twice aired Secret Circle , a serialized genre show.CMT aired some of Nashville season one & that’s a searilized soap.WGN aired Vampire Diaries season four and its a serialized genre show and Arrow whitish I think is both procedural & serialized.

TVDude

I think it’s too early to tell with The Goldbergs. I think ABC really wants it to work for them and it’s doing OK for a non-Wednesday show, compared to the previous seasons.

pmr

As for watercooler talk at work it is all about Revenge or Walking Dead. I’ve never heard anyone discuss Nashville. If Nashville were on Sunday nights with the intense competition that Revenge has it would have already been a goner

chris

@ tv fan 1986

It’s not like ABC gave Revenge it’s second best drama lead in when it was moved behind OUAT last season or anything. Or that Revenge was doing low 2’s at the end of its first season and the ten o’clock hour has collapsed since then…

Bunny

I love Revenge.Please stop moving programs around.

tv#1

Possible Fall line up for ABC next season could be…

Mon:
DWTS
Nashville

Tue:
Agents of Shield
New Drama
Castle

Wed:
New Comedy
The Middle
Modern Family
The Goldbergs
New Drama

Thur:
Grey’s Anatomy
Scandal
New Drama

Fri:
Last Man Standing
Suburgatory
Shark Tank
20/20

Sun:
Once Upon a Time
New Drama
Revenge

Alecia

I watched almost all of season one of Nashville and finally gave it up when I realized that I was doing so more for the potential of what the show could be than for what was actually being shown. Raina was dull as a dishrag, Juillete learning a lesson ever episode felt like an after school special and don’t even get me started on Scarlett and Gunner. I have no idea what the writers and producers were going for and I don’t think they did either.

With that said I wouldn’t be surprised if ABC renew it since they’re not really known for stellar decision making.

As for revenge, I don’t see it getting cancel before 2015 unless the ratings hit a one or lower.

Why Watch

I’ve never committed to Nashville, it was too soapy the time I watched it. Not a country fan either.

Revenge was good in year 1, but has gone downhill consistently since then with inane storylines.

Can’t say I’ve ever heard anyone talk about Revenge or Nashville at work, play or anywhere else, except this board.

Carmen

Of the new comedies, I think that the Goldbergs is the only one that ABC will definitely pick up. It has improved greatly following its opening episodes and the ratings are starting to reflect that.

After that, who knows.

ABC thought that Super Fun Night would be a success, if not a smash, and ABC will be reluctant to change their view on that.

Trophy Wife is much better than The Goldbergs, and certainly better than SFN.
But ABC apparently did not rate it as high in the off season and seems unwilling to change their view. I think they are missing a bet, if they don’t give TW a shot at one of the Wednesday night 1/2 hour slots.

With the dramas, I suspect that Nashville will get a renewal.

Jon

As a revenge fan personally I would just like to see a potential series finale put in place by may. I guess if it somehow gets renewed you could always revolt the series and take it into a new direction. Quite honestly the revenge plan just needs a resolution.

Jon

@carmen… I agree I think the goldbergs survives and the other freshman sitcoms get whacked. They will need to save something because I also think suburgatory will be done.

Cyrax86

I don’t know, somehow I think there is a slight chance that Revenge gets cancelled. What if it starts to pull 1.0s in the Spring at 10 pm? Would ABC really stick with that for 22 episodes? This was ABC’s most promising show in years but the writing couldn’t match the original concept.

As for Nashville, I used to say it was certain cancellation and the save face renewal like V 4 seasons ago, but ABC has serious drama issues now and just like Revenge, it could go either way at this point.

ToXiX

The Goldbergs will be the only freshman sitcom on abc to be renewed.

C.S.Strowbridge

“Some of that is offset by iTunes music sales…”

I don’t think enough people take that into account.

Also, if ABC cancels Nashville and all of the others with weaker prospects, they will have canceled half of their dramas. That’s a terrible idea.

C.S.Strowbridge

Also, I’m glad the, “CANCEL SHIELD!” posts are gone. It was never in danger.

Greg

Considering ABC’s current situation, I’d say Nashville will be renewed and make it through syndication.

Regarding new shows: besides Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., I can only see The Goldbergs making it through another season, and the only midseason show that has any chance of succeeding is Resurrection (and even in that case, I don’t think it will).

Jim

I have never seen a network work so hard to fail as ABC has the past few years (mostly with ridiculous scheduling choices). If Paul Lee isn’t working at Taco Bell this time next year, there’s no justice in the world.

Ronak

Nashville is a goner imo. Revenge will limp on into syndication. For drama ABC will renew Scandal, GA, OUAT, Castle, SHIELD and Revenge. That is 6 hrs. The rest will be held over for new drama next year.

Noel

Netflix has a contract revealed by Forbes magazine that is requiring networks to give a proper ending to their shows, this is what secured Nikita a final short fourth season (God Bless Netflix). With this in mind, Revenge is already on Netflix and they will definitely push ABC in developing a final fourth season for the show. Netflix is requiring this because people are more likely to watch a show if they know it ended properly, contrary to a short show that would be a waste to invest time on.

Plus, Revenge is one of those shows that they could sell to other channels like lifetime or others that have interest in these dramas. Here on Puerto Rico, a local channel has been promoting Revenge as one of the shows that they will be airing soon, but I think they are waiting for the confirmation of a fourth season in order to air the show. Syndication and proper endings are becoming something important now if you really want to make money with a show in the online market too. It is more money they get after all.

Ultima

@tv fan 1986Can’t ABC just put Nashville on Thursdays at 10/9c and move Grey’s Anatomy up at 8/7c and Scandal up at 9/8c?!

They can, but they won’t. Why risk your two best dramas by moving them to try and prop up a failing drama that’s already in a good timeslot?