Interestingly, Intrade.com now has Obama up to a 56 percent favorite, which is higher than he was on June 6. So either I’m wrong in thinking the race is moving in Romney’s direction or Intrade.com is wrong for thinking it is moving in Obama’s direction.

P.S. My ex generated some controversy with her comment about “real Virginia,” but I’ve always been mystified by the kerfuffle. Just look at this map and see how the counties in Northern Virginia are among the wealthiest in America thanks to all the loot being redistributed from the rest of the country to the metro-DC area. Those looters and moochers have very little in common with the people in the rest of the Commonwealth.

[…] Dan Mitchell also predicts an Obama victory at his wonderful blog, International Liberty, in Predicting the November Election with Four Months to Go. He counts the electoral votes and the likelihood of success state by state. If just a few of the […]

Dan, what a lot of the polling is leaving out is that many on the left are unhappy with their chosen one. You can sense that watching him beg for money. The independents that change elections are not happy about the Hope and Change they voted for in 08. Many of the voters in 08 were first time and young voters. Chances are they are going to sit this one out.
The main event of the election has not even started.
Also, if you look back to the 1980 election. It showed that Carter at this point in the election was going to win.

New Hampshire went big time to republicans in 2010 and that passion is still there. No way Romney loses New Hampshire. The only people up here for Obama are hardcore leftists. Don’t believe the low unemployment numbers they post, unemployment is still a major problem and the real estate market is awful. The Union Leader is staying afloat with all the foreclosure notices. They take up half the paper on a lot of days.

[…] Predicting the November Election with Four Months to Go « International Liberty. Share this:TwitterFacebookLinkedInStumbleUponEmailPrintLike this:LikeBe the first to like this. This entry was posted in Barack Obama, Election, Mitt Romney by michaelacummings. Bookmark the permalink. […]

Election season hasn’t really started to heat up yet. Watch what happens when the Rep. veep pick is announced and the conventions conclude; that’s when it gets real.

It says a lot that Romney is campaigning in places that are usually considered to be blue territory and more or less ignoring places that might otherwise be considered “battleground.” Campaign internals are likely showing a slightly different picture than the one we’re seeing. And since the Obama campaign seems stuck in a welter of desperate pandering moves and campaign stops in states that should be solid for him, I think Romney has the slight momentum at the moment.

pretty realistic map, except, by the time election takes place, I believe people in the following states will swing to Romney, allowing him to win the election:
Colorado
New Hampshire
Iowa
and possibly Ohio

Romney needs to pick up the first three otherwise he will have to win Ohio for sure. There is also the outside chance that we will be in a second recesssion by then. If that happens, it could even be a landslide. We need to be optimistic and work tirelessly to wake people up by then.

Drama: for every electoral vote Romney picks up, Obama loses 1. So, if Romney switches OH on this map, he wins the whole thing by 6, by 26 if Wisc. goes too. Romney has to win one of PA or OH in my opinion.