Area Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS62 KFFC 011930
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF
THIS LINE...BUT WITH BEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...ANTICIPATE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE...BUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND IT...FURTHER CONFINING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE.
OVERALL...WENT WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE MORE
SKILLFUL MAV. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST PUSHING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
31
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DEFINED BY THREE
SEPARATE TROUGH/FRONTS THAT IMPACT THE CWFA.
THE FIRST BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OOZE THROUGH THE CWFA ON MONDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/FLORIDA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A SECOND BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO COME THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
NLISTEMAA
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM DOES WITH SURFACE
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.
AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 500 MB TROUGH AXIS BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
INITIALLY. AS A RESULT...THE DRIEST AIR OF THE WEEK SETTLES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INDICATIONS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES. IF THIS IS
INDEED THE CASE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE NON EXISTENT FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH JUST EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS
REQUIRING 20 PERCENT POPS.
AS MENTIONED...TUESDAY LOOKS JUST ABOUT AS DRY WITH PWATS AROUND
AN INCH ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS DO TRY TO MOISTEN UP JUST A
BIT. STILL THOUGH...NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT TO WARRANT
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSRA AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A WIDE SWATH OF
UPPER 90S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CREEPING INTO
NORTH GA AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN LARGELY MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS ON WED. IT COULD BE
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL RETURN TO CHANCE POPS BY THIS TIME
PERIOD BUT WILL LIMIT TO CENTRAL GA FOR NOW.
A DECENT FOR MID SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG FULLY DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIME BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN NATURE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR
PROFILES. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR THE NW AND CHANCE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT THU ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF A NON
DIURNAL EVENT.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME STRONG
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ONTO
SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CSG TO MCN TO AHN LINE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NE-E AT 7-10KT WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
BECOME NEARLY CALM. SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NE AT 5-9KT.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 95 71 95 / 5 5 5 5
ATLANTA 67 94 70 93 / 5 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 57 87 63 88 / 0 5 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 66 95 69 93 / 0 5 5 5
COLUMBUS 72 96 73 95 / 10 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 67 92 70 92 / 0 5 5 5
MACON 71 96 72 97 / 20 20 10 10
ROME 63 94 65 95 / 0 5 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 67 94 70 94 / 5 10 5 5
VIDALIA 73 93 74 95 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31