Middleweights

The Matchup: Carmont has an imposing look and the
winning streak to match, but even in victory, his performance has
often left plenty to be desired. After charmed triumphs over
Tom
Lawlor and Lorenz
Larkin, the
Tristar Gym export took an encouraging step forward at UFC 165,
scoring a dominant unanimous verdict over Costas
Philippou in September.

While Carmont’s brand of topside control, positional advancement
and ground-and-pound did not enthrall the Toronto crowd, it was a
marked improvement from previous efforts. In particular, Carmont
displayed excellent timing on his takedowns against an opponent who
had proven himself to be stingy in that area. If “Limitless” is to
add to his current 11-fight winning streak, he will have to
accelerate his progress. He has yet to face anyone near Souza’s
level in the grappling department, and the Brazilian’s speed, power
and athleticism make him a threat on the feet, as well -- just go
back and watch how quickly he dispatched Yushin Okami
at UFC Fight Night 28.

Souza, a five-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and the 2005
Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships gold
medalist, might very well be the best grappler in all of mixed
martial arts. The fact that his first two knockout wins -- against
Okami and Derek
Brunson -- have come within his last four bouts should be a
scary prospect for the rest of the middleweight division. Not only
can “Jacare” slice up your guard and make you tap, but he is now
capable of putting you to sleep with his hands.

For all the grief he has taken, Carmont has a decent set of tools
with which to work. The Paris native is a massive 185-pounder, and
he will enter the Octagon with a two-inch height and four-inch
reach advantage on fight night. While the Frenchman relied on his
wrestling and grappling to carry him past Philippou, he can also do
a little kickboxing. Carmont puts plenty of power behind his kicks
and will change levels between the head and body. The jab is his
most consistent punch, though he is not as proficient with it as
some of his Tristar Gym brethren.

Carmont is not especially explosive in exchanges, so it would seem
likely that Souza should be able to get inside and counter. If the
fight enters the clinch, Souza’s judo background and vast array of
trips and throws should negate Carmont’s size and strength.

Even if Carmont is able to use punching and kicking combinations to
disguise his shot and plant Souza on his back, he will likely find
himself worrying less about landing ground-and-pound and more about
defending himself from being submitted. Carmont has provided
openings to foes in the past, and Souza is not one to grant a
mulligan.

The Pick: Carmont can try to use his kickboxing to
keep Souza on the outside or he can attempt to rely on his size to
tire out the Brazilian by trapping him against the fence. No matter
what he does, “Jacare” should have an answer. Souza takes this by
submission in round two or three.