Accessible Version

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2011 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in real GDPPercent

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Longer Run

Actual

3.1

2.7

2.4

2.3

-0.2

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

0.2

4.5

5.5

3.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

-0.5

3.3

5.0

2.7

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

-1.3

2.5

3.8

2.5

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

-2.5

1.5

2.3

2.4

Unemployment ratePercent

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Longer Run

Actual

5.4

4.9

4.4

4.8

6.9

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

9.2

9.2

8.0

5.5

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

8.8

8.3

7.5

5.0

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

8.5

8.0

6.7

4.8

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

8.0

7.0

5.5

4.5

PCE inflationPercent

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Longer Run

Actual

3.1

3.3

1.9

3.5

1.7

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.0

1.5

1.7

2.0

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

0.3

1.0

0.9

1.7

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

-0.5

0.7

0.2

1.5

Core PCE inflationPercent

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Actual

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

1.8

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.5

1.7

1.8

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.1

1.5

1.5

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

0.9

0.8

0.7

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

0.6

0.4

0.0

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2009

2010

2011

Longer Run

Januaryprojections

Octoberprojections

Januaryprojections

Octoberprojections

Januaryprojections

Octoberprojections

Januaryprojections

-2.6 - -2.5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

-2.4 - -2.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-2.2 - -2.1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-2.0 - -1.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.8 - -1.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.6 - -1.5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.4 - -1.3

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.2 - -1.1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.0 - -0.9

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

-0.8 - -0.7

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

-0.6 - -0.5

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.4 - -0.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.2 - -0.1

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.0 - 0.1

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.2 - 0.3

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0.4 - 0.5

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.6 - 0.7

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0.8 - 0.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.0 - 1.1

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

1.2 - 1.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.4 - 1.5

0

1

2

2

0

0

0

1.6 - 1.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.8 - 1.9

0

2

0

1

0

0

0

2.0 - 2.1

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

2.2 - 2.3

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

2.4 - 2.5

0

0

1

4

0

1

10

2.6 - 2.7

0

0

1

1

1

1

4

2.8 - 2.9

0

0

1

0

0

2

1

3.0 - 3.1

0

0

5

4

0

2

1

3.2 - 3.3

0

0

2

1

0

1

0

3.4 - 3.5

0

0

1

1

1

4

0

3.6 - 3.7

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

3.8 - 3.9

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

4.0 - 4.1

0

0

1

1

1

0

0

4.2 - 4.3

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

4.4 - 4.5

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

4.6 - 4.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4.8 - 4.9

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

5.0 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

4

1

0

5.2 - 5.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.4 - 5.5

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2009

2010

2011

Longer Run

Januaryprojections

Octoberprojections

Januaryprojections

Octoberprojections

Januaryprojections

Octoberprojections

Januaryprojections

4.4 - 4.5

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

4.6 - 4.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

4.8 - 4.9

0

0

0

0

0

1

3

5.0 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

0

2

8

5.2 - 5.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.4 - 5.5

0

0

0

1

1

1

3

5.6 - 5.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.8 - 5.9

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

6.0 - 6.1

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

6.2 - 6.3

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

6.4 - 6.5

0

0

0

3

2

2

0

6.6 - 6.7

0

1

0

1

1

3

0

6.8 - 6.9

0

0

0

4

2

0

0

7.0 - 7.1

0

3

1

2

2

1

0

7.2 - 7.3

0

4

0

2

3

1

0

7.4 - 7.5

0

5

1

1

3

0

0

7.6 - 7.7

0

2

0

0

1

0

0

7.8 - 7.9

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

8.0 - 8.1

2

1

4

1

1

0

0

8.2 - 8.3

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

8.4 - 8.5

5

0

1

0

0

0

0

8.6 - 8.7

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

8.8 - 8.9

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.0 - 9.1

2

0

1

0

0

0

0

9.2 - 9.3

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.