Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 3rd October 2005

Bullish: We did note a minimum target of 113.62 and given the high at 113.67 it is possible that the move higher is complete. However, while 113.28-38 supports we should be aware of the risk of a move above 113.67 and to the 113.91-114.15 resistance area which does have potential to cap. Only above 114.15-24 would extend gains to 114.42-59.

Bearish: With Friday seeing a high just 5 points above our minimum target of 113.62 we should be on alert that a reversal lower could occur. Until 113.28-38 breaks we should still be aware of a risk of a move to 113.91-114.15 but any earlier break of 113.28 would begin to suggest a longer, erratic decline initially to the 112.65 area and eventually to the 112.22 area at least.

Elliott Wave Comments:

30th September 2005

The Wave -iv- support area has held and should imply a move in Wave -v- to 113.92-114.14 as described on the 28th September. With the Wave -iv- low at 112.65 it would imply a 61.8% projection in Wave -v- at 114.22 and with the 113.92-114.14 area implied by the larger wave structure we look for this general area to cap to complete Wave (c) and Wave (iii). We will then look for a correction in Wave (iv).

3rd October 2005

No real change in the analysis though we should consider the risk that Friday's high at 113.67 completed the rally. Thus we suspect that this week could generate a sideways to lower bias and if 113.67 did provide the peak to Wave (iii) then we would target the 111.77 (50%) to 112.22 (38.2%) retracement area in Wave (iv) to allow Wave (v) to develop.

(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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