Arizona elections may bring Democratic-majority delegation

If dynamics in the congressional campaigns continue, it's possible that voters could elect five Democrats and four Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives this November.

Arizona is expected to maintain four reliably Republican House seats and two Democratic strongholds. Three newly drawn competitive districts -- the 1st District in rural eastern Arizona, the 2nd District in southern Arizona and the urban 9th District in the Phoenix metro area -- appear to lean Democratic, according to national political analysts, though the races are far from slam dunks.

A Democratic-majority House delegation would be a rarity in the past several decades of Arizona history.

And while Democrats say it's a sign of the growing independent nature of Arizona's voters, Republicans say that if they lose the majority of the House delegation, it will confirm what they contend was a biased redistricting process.

If the delegation does swing from the current 5-3 GOP majority, it would be the result of a combination of factors tied to redistricting: Two incumbent Republican congressmen switched to safer districts; an open ninth seat was created because of Arizona's population gains; and several districts became more competitive in terms of voter makeup.

The potential for a shake-up in Arizona bucks national expectations. The GOP appears set to keep its majority in the House and possibly even take the Senate.

"Arizona's a critical state for Democrats as they put together how to get to the majority (in the House)," said Jessica Taylor, House editor for the Rothenberg Political Report, a nationwide nonpartisan campaign tracker.

"They see very good opportunities for the state, but ... Arizona is still seen as a state that leans Republican. We're still expecting it to go Republican in the presidential race," she added.

Gerrymandering alleged

Republicans hold the voter- registration edge in Arizona, about 1.2 million to 1 million Democratic voters. Independents make up roughly another 1.2 million.

If the state's delegation ends up with a Democratic majority despite the larger Republican voter base, it would confirm Republican complaints of gerrymandering, said Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman. The nonpartisan firm, along with others, forecasts that Democrats could win at least four and possibly five Arizona seats.

Wasserman said the way the political map is drawn, Republicans will waste votes in stacked GOP districts like the 4th, which includes Prescott, Yuma and Lake Havasu City and faithfully elects Republicans.

GOP strategists, meanwhile, point to steep challenges for Democrats to pull off a coup.

Tim LaSota, a Phoenix-based Republican elections attorney who was active in the recent redistricting process, said the last time that Democrats made up a majority of the delegation, it was driven by a national wave in the elections of 2006 and 2008. The gains were short-lived. Two years ago, Republicans won big, and the GOP reclaimed a majority of Arizona's House delegation.

"In a state like Arizona, in high-watermark years, it's possible for Democrats to achieve a majority of the congressional delegation," said LaSota, of Tiffany and Bosco. "Nonetheless, I think with (President Barack) Obama's unpopularity, the Democratic Party isn't particularly strong, and I see a heavy Republican turnout."

LaSota said if Democrats prevail, it will show that the state's independent redistricting commission "put their thumb on the scale heavily for Democrats."

Daniel Scarpinato, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, also criticized redistricting but said the contested districts are winnable for the GOP. Voters are turning against Democrats and "there are no signs of a rekindling," he said. "Democrats have about as much chance of running the table in Arizona as Tom Cruise has at getting Katie Holmes back."

Scarpinato said Democrats will lose because their slate of candidates is "D-list" and their issues represent a "failed agenda."

Luis Heredia, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, said Republicans' bellyaching over redistricting is unfounded. He argued that the district demographics back that up.

He said chances are just as good that Democrats gain the delegation majority as remain in the minority. But he is cautiously optimistic.

"We have great candidates in all three of these competitive districts that are going to have strong messages of solving problems," Heredia said.

Democrats are on the offensive in Arizona, according to Rep. Steve Israel, a New York Democrat and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

"A deep sense of buyer's remorse has set in with voters over the extreme Republican agenda that puts millionaires, Big Oil corporations and insurance companies over the middle class," he said. "Arizona voters know they can do better than these out-of-touch Republican plans."

Toss-up in 3 districts

Both parties point to variations in voter registration, voting patterns and candidate matchups to argue how they could win swing Districts 1, 2 and 9.

District 1:

Democrats in this rural northeastern district, which includes Flagstaff, Globe and several tribal reservations, have about 30,000 more active voters than Republicans. Former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick was elected here in 2008 but was ousted during the 2010 "tea party" wave by Republican Rep. Paul Gosar.

Gosar left the seat open this year by switching to run in the safer conservative District 4. Democrats believe Kirkpatrick can retake the newly open seat because of an impressive fundraising advantage and an increased Democratic voting edge.

But Republicans point to factors in their favor. The district supported Republican presidential candidates Sen. John McCain and George W. Bush, and the area's large Mormon population could increase this year's Republican turnout for Mitt Romney.

Plus, Kirkpatrick -- if she wins her primary -- will be defending her vote for Obama's health-care program, which was unpopular among many voters and hurt her campaign in the last round. The likely Republican nominee, Jonathan Paton, a former state legislator, lost a previous run for Congress. Republicans contend that his fundraising has increased and that he can beat Kirkpatrick.

District 2:

Republicans in this southern Arizona district, which is anchored by Tucson and runs along the U.S.-Mexican border, have about 6,500 more active voters than Democrats. Voting patterns show the district chose McCain and Bush for president.

But Republicans are more hard-pressed to describe a victory scenario.

Democrats won the past four congressional elections, including the recent special election to fill Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' open seat. She resigned in January to focus on recovery from her injuries in a 2011 shooting.

Giffords' former top aide, Ron Barber, won by a surprising margin in June, drawing a large independent vote as well as Republican support, and will have the advantage of incumbency if he cleans up in the Democratic primary against state Rep. Matt Heinz.

However, Republicans likely have a better chance at giving Barber a run for his money than in the special election. Former Barber opponent Jesse Kelly, who was criticized as being too conservative for the toss-up district, decided not to run again, paving the way for Republican Martha McSally, a charismatic former Air Force pilot who appeals to many independents.

Republicans have about 12,500 more active voters than Democrats. Yet independents make up more votes than either party, the only district in the state with that makeup, adding an extra level of uncertainty. It's the only swing district whose voters went for Obama in 2008 and against Republican Gov. Jan Brewer two years later.

The seat is open after freshman Rep. Ben Quayle chose to switch to a solidly Republican district. The well-funded son of former Vice President Dan Quayle could have given Democrats a pitched battle. Instead, he now is taking on fellow GOP freshman Rep. David Schweikert in the northeast Valley's 6th Congressional District.

Quayle notes that he is justified in running in the new district because it includes about two-thirds of his current constituents. Still, that matchup will ensure that at least one of the state's Republican House incumbents is defeated in the Aug. 28 primary.

Democrats have fielded three strong candidates: state Sen. David Schapira, former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Andrei Cherny and former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. But their attacks on each other are expected to grow even nastier as the election approaches, potentially depleting the Democrats' campaigns of money and momentum. On the Republican side, there's a free-for-all with seven candidates fighting to take a commanding lead.

Democrats cite positives

The last time Arizona had a Democratic majority in its House delegation was actually not long ago. The 2008 election delivered Kirkpatrick into the Republican-held seat in northern Arizona, adding her to the ranks of Giffords, Raśl Grijalva, Harry Mitchell and Ed Pastor. Before that, Arizona's delegation had been split five times and led by Republicans every other cycle since 1967.

Grijalva, who represents one of the states' solidly Democratic districts, said regaining the delegation majority would encourage bipartisanship.

"It happened before. That wasn't an aberration," said Grijalva, a five-term southern Arizona representative. "If you're in the distinct minority in our delegation, like I and Ed Pastor are, there's not much consultation. ... A 5-4 split kind of forces the issue that people have to talk. And that's the healthy part."

Pastor, who represents the other solidly Democratic district, predicted a swing would bring Arizona attention: "That would be very unusual for a Republican-leaning state to contribute two Democratic votes in trying to win the majority in the House of Representatives."