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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Security dilemma

Zahir Kazmi

Among other things, the visit of
President Obama to India brings into focus the politics of the region. If
Pakistan and India reduce their bilateral insecurities, the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation could substantively give shape to a stable
regional security complex.

Individual security precedes regionalism. It pertains to lack of threats to the
values of a state, or the latter’s ability to avoid wars and achieve victory
when provoked.

The insecurities of India and Pakistan undermine SAARC’s stability, and
regional security remains a pipe dream. New Delhi’s pursuit of international
prestige and its security calculus dictate Islamabad’s hedging. Cooperation is
possible if interdependence is built to such an extent that regional ‘security
problems cannot be analysed or resolved apart from one another’.

The stakes for the two SAARC heavyweights are high and depend on their
simultaneous choices. Without stability, India’s aspiration of Security Council
membership will remain unfulfilled.

Likewise, Pakistan’s prospects of becoming a vital node in the Silk Road would
be undermined. As a land bridge between the resource-rich Central Asian region
and the Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s position remains central despite competing big
power interests.

Both nuclear rivals accept that a
stable, secure and peaceful neighbourhood is in their interest but cannot achieve
this. However, the prize for cooperation is bigger than the incentives of
competition. If India and Pakistan make some concessions, the subcontinent’s
teeming population and resources could promise a powerful regional hub. New
Delhi may balance its goals to revise the international order. Likewise,
Islamabad may create an environment for making this happen.

At the moment, India unrealistically expects Pakistan to relent on its demands
on bilateral territorial and water disputes; it wants Pakistan to give up
allegedly destabilising India; and to give New Delhi non-discriminatory market
access status.

Pakistan expects India to resolve certain disputes before opening up its
fragile markets. It is also refraining from giving India NDMA status because of
fears that there is no level playing field that could help Pakistan acquire
inexpensive energy sources, such as nuclear energy, essential for economic
development. Like India, Pakistan would expect that no state should foment
instability. Coercion cannot resolve these seemingly inexorable bilateral
expectations, but bold leadership could end the zero sum game.

The international system holds opportunities for the subcontinent as the
economic centre of gravity is shifting from the West to Asia. This transition
may also sway military and political power.

China’s rise and the potential shift in the balance of power have prompted
Washington to cooperate with Beijing in the economic sphere while strategically
partnering with Delhi and others to contain Beijing. The success of America’s
‘rebalancing strategy’ would also depend on what is acceptable to China and
Russia.

The new Russian military doctrine indicates Moscow would deter NATO’s eastward
encroachment. Moscow may also react if India pushes American interests in the
East China Sea with Russian-supplied technology. India’s alignment with America
may affect relations with Russia, triggering Moscow’s strategic options that
would exacerbate South Asian instability.

Some elements of the gestating US-India partnership affect Pakistan’s security.
It has emboldened India in dismissing Pakistan’s peace-building initiatives.
And the Indo-US nuclear deal has unlocked India’s domestic resources for
building a nuclear triad. Denying civilian nuclear technology to Pakistan affects
the latter’s growth and deprives the global industry from investing in a market
that equals the combined populations of UK, France and Germany.

Afghanistan has shown promise under the new government and is cooperating with
Pakistan. The aftermath of the Peshawar tragedy marks the beginning of decisive
fight against Taliban. Stable borders can help maintain the internal balance,
and India can play a role in making this happen.

The future might be more challenging than what the SAARC nations have anticipated
or are ready to handle. Governance problems, economic challenges, population
growth and recurring natural disasters may rule the geopolitics India is trying
to affect and Pakistan is coping with. South Asians have to overcome domestic
constraints in order to take advantage of or absorb the stresses and shocks of
the international system.

India and Pakistan must lead by taking direct and indirect actions to stabilise
South Asia. Restraint and conflict resolution are better options that conflict
management. Negotiating the simmering disputes can create space for building
greater security for SAARC to finally make up for the lost opportunities of the
past.

The writer is visiting faculty at the School of Politics & International
Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University, and worked at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies, London.

Dawn.com, January 27. Zahir Kazmi is visiting faculty at the school of
politics and international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University, and worked at
the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London.