Warriors vs. Denver: The match-ups, the season series, and the GSW quest to get Curry decent looks

* The times and dates have been announced. Game 1 in Denver is at 2:30 PT Saturday Sunday, Game 2 in Denver is Tuesday at 7:30 PT, Game 3 in Oakland is Friday at 7:30 and Game 4 is Sunday at 6:30.

-One enormous point to remember: Though the Warriors are the clear underdogs for many solid reasons, they also have the best, most dangerous player on either roster in this fascinating first-round match-up vs. Denver.

That would be Stephen Curry, and when’s the last time the Warriors went into any playoff series knowing that their player was the single most important force–to either unleash or contain–in a playoff round?

Maybe since Rick Barry in the mid-1970s? (The Mullin-Hardaway-etc. teams were very talented, but they kept running into Barkley-Payton-David Robinson-Magic-Kareem-KJ in their short playoff campaigns.)

Let me repeat, this is no way alters the fact that the 6th-seeded Warriors will have a giant task ahead of them vs. No. 3 Denver, not the least being Denver’s NBA-best 38-3 home record and the significance of this series starting with two games in the Mile High city.

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To get any kind of footing, the Warriors will have to find a way to steal one of the first two games–the way they stole Game 1 in Dallas in 2007 to start their epic six-game toppling–and the Nuggets have proven that they know how to defend their home court with a vengeance.

The Nuggets are deep, they are athletic, they can run away from anybody… and they also finished this season on a ridiculous 23-3 run over the last two months, enduring major injuries and the potential for a lull.

By the way, in the same time span, the Warriors went 15-13.

But the Warriors have a slightly better than blind squirrel’s chance at this mainly because they have Curry, who broke the NBA single-season record for three-pointers tonight and who, if the defense cannot get multiple bodies on him throughout the game, can put up 40 to 50 to 54 in a blink.

So, as with most series involving solid teams, this break-down starts with the best player, and the logical question: Can Denver keep Curry from dominating games with his shooting?

The answer: Yes, the Nuggets probably can because they’ve already shown they can do a decent job vs. Curry in the regular-season series, which Denver won 3-1.

Interestingly, while Curry shot a blistering 66.7% from three-point distance in the four games vs. Denver, he only averaged 18.8 points… and that’s because he only made 25.6% from inside the arc.

That shows how well Denver coach George Karl’s scheme limited Curry–Denver has a lot of long-armed mid-sized players, and Karl likes to employ an aggressive switching defense.

So if Ty Lawson starts on Curry and gets screened, the Nuggets don’t panic, they just switch Wilson Chandler on Curry or Andre Iguodala or Kenneth Faried or Corey Brewer or whoever needs to jump out to stop the easy shot. That’s a lot of guys to do that.

The Nuggets have given up some Curry deep looks, but they haven’t let him get incendiary from all over the floor–once he dribbles, they’re all over him.

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What’s the Warriors counter to this? Well, it’s simple to say that Curry has to hit some contested shots–easy to say, not easy to do, especially on the road in the thin air.

He’s the best player, he’s going to have to take it upon himself, maybe a little recklessly, and maybe shoot the Warriors in or out of a tight game. He did that at Davidson a few times, didn’t he?

Meanwhile, Klay Thompson got some pretty regular open looks vs. Denver (sometimes he didn’t think so well through those moments early in the season, of course), and David Lee had one monster performance in the one Warriors’ victory over Denver.

So… Curry has to keep shooting, draw Chandler, Brewer and the others, stay strong on the dribble, and then Thompson, Lee and the others have to make some pressure shots… then see if Jarrett Jack can create down the stretch… and that’s just to keep the Warriors competitive in the two Denver games.

It’s who the Warriors are. It’s how they have to play this.

On the other side, Curry has a tough defensive match-up against the very quick Lawson, who is back from a plantar fascia tear in his right heel and has apparently played OK down the stretch. That might mean putting Thompson on Lawson for stretches, and maybe Curry on Chandler or Iguodala, and THAT could get very troublesome.

Anyway, against the good teams, the Warriors’ chances always ride with Curry’s shooting, and as an add on, to Thompson’s shooting too.

The Warrior were the’ No. 1 three-point percentage shooting team at 40.3%… and Denver is a little bit vulnerable there–again, probably because of Karl’s system–because Nuggets opponents made the second-most three-pointers in the league (8 per).

If the Warriors are going to threaten Denver and take this series deep, they’re going to have to make three-pointers. That is not breaking news. But if Denver has a crack in its defensive process, it’s giving up the three at a pretty decent rate.

–Some of the other match-ups and notable statistical points…

* Warriors center Andrew Bogut, who played 17 minutes tonight after missing some time with a tweaked ankle, didn’t play in any of the games against Denver.

I’m not sure his presence is a game-changer against Denver, since the Nuggets don’t really pound the ball inside–unless JaVale McGee is in a shooting mood, and I think opponents usually love it when McGee is in a shooting mood.

But if Bogut can give the Warriors 25 minutes a game in the playoffs–with guaranteed days off in-between games–he can bother Lawson and Andre Miller’s penetration and cut down on some of Denver’s big statistical edges on the Warriors.

Mostly, Bogut can tamp down the Warriors’ extreme tendency to grab players as they race to the rim. Because he can play straight up large-man D, while most of the other Warriors cannot or do not.

* What was the biggest edge? Not surprisingly, Denver whomped the Warriors at the free-throw line.

Denver had more free-throw tries than the Warriors in each of the four games and it’s just about the only way the Nuggets beat the Warriors in the last one, on Jan. 13, when the Warriors made 13 3-pointers and shot 51.8%.

In that game, Denver had a 27-8 free-throw advantage. Overall, the Nuggets had an average of 27 free throw attempts in the season series. The Warriors shot an average of 15.5.

If the Nuggets have that kind of free-throw edge in the first few games, the Warriors’ odds of winning this series drop to almost zero.

* I think the Warriors’ win-the-series odds start at probably 30%, by the way.

It’s better than I would’ve set for a match-up against San Antonio, just because the Warriors have proven it’s almost impossible for them to win in San Antonio.

And it’s much worse than I would’ve given the Warriors if they’d lucked into a Clippers series.

Denver is not a good match-up, but it’s better than it could’ve been. The Nuggets don’t have a center or power forward that the Warriors must double-team down low, and the loss of Danilo Gallinari does change things.

* There will be points: Denver averaged 104 106.1 points per game, second-most in the league; the Warriors averaged 101.2, which was seventh.

* I repeat: Denver was 38-3 at home this season. Their only losses were to Miami, Minnesota and Washington.

Which means the Nuggets swept all their home games vs. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Memphis and everybody else.

* The Warriors were 18-22 on the road this season, not bad at all, but also not a sign that they’re ready to go get Denver in Games 1 and
2.

Denver was 19-22 on the road–so if the Warriors can pick off one of the first two, they’re going to be in a pretty strong position in this series. (The Warriors were 28-13 at home.)

* The power-forward match-up is another one to watch: Faried vs. David Lee are almost polar-opposite players and both had separate huge games vs. each other this season.

* Denver lost Gallinari to a knee injury recently, and that means the Nuggets are less able to hit teams from long-distance.

Two things: Gallinari didn’t dominate the Warriors in the series, but hit some important shots.

And: Denver is 4-1 since losing him to a knee injury, so it’s not like everything depended on him.

Excellent breakdown Tim. I would tie Denver’s ft advantage to the absence of Bogut. He can flat out defend and coupled with Ezeli who played excellent defense in the last 10 games, I would give the Ws a fighting chance at defending the paint without fouling. The series to me would boil down to turnovers and containing Faried on the glass. The Ws have developed a rancid habit of piling up a a zillion turnovers down the stretch and Denver would murder them if we turn the ball over at the same rate. It comes down to taking care of the ball.

http://Yahoo! PeteyBrian

Denver’s huge home advantage drops a bit as the W’s have more time (2-3 days) to adjust to the altitude during a 7-game series, unlike during the season (1 day).

Take a less than 100% Lawson, and losing Gallinari – a known W’s killer – and I’d confident the W’s can give Denver a run…

And it’s not like Denver dominated the W’s in all their 3 wins… Bogut should help the team’s defense/rebounding.

I’m just worried about Denver’s defensive wings dominating… Why can’t the W’s get athletic, defensive (two-way) wings? Brandon Rush went down at the beginning of the season and should have been replaced by now… Barnes is no where near a defensive stopper (yet – there’s still time, but I’m on the fence).

YouTired

MT III says game one is Saturday.

taro

Gonna be tough, but this series will be close.

earl monroe

Down the stretch, Denver looked like a playoff team, especially with Miller running the offense, he slows them down to playoff pace, he gets the ball to the right places, I think Miller will give the Warriors more trouble than Lawson, Lawson is quick and scores well but Miller is the prototypical playoff point guard, both the Warriors and Denver will have to slow down a bit to win any series, its going to be an exciting series. Go Warriors!!!!

Mark

I was rooting, in a totally backwards way, for a matchup against the Spurs. Not because I think the W’s have a chance against Pop and Co., but because that franchise is a tremendous model for player and team development, defensive game-planning and ultimate professionalism. The Spurs are built for the playoffs and would have forced the W’s to confront their biggest team weakness, namely, their ability to produce consistently and efficiently in the half-court at both ends.

Although I’m excited about the W’s making the playoffs, the organization should recognize that it has a long way to go to reach the top. They are still winning games with the 3-pointer and run-run-run, which is a great strategy for a West Coast team in the regular season, but no way to win in the playoffs. Most of the season they rolled out two offense-first power forwards as their 4th quarter big men- again, not a formula for post-season success. Beyond the personnel issues underlying the team’s strategic flaws, the biggest advantage of the Spurs is the continuity within their system. The W’s showed a lot of promise for the future by giving big minutes to Barnes and Ezeli, but paid a price in system development. The team looked very different with Ezeli v Bogut v Lee at center, or Jack v Curry running the point, with and without Barnes on the floor… You want to put your guys in a position to succeed, but eventually its about fitting the guys into a winning system, not shifting strategies for every group of 5 players on the floor.

I agree with the 30% chance of beating the Nugs. They are a lot like the W’s- dependent on a veteran backup point guard to balance a surplus of young, talented, somewhat mismatched dudes. They have no dependable low-post scorer, which among playoff teams in the West makes them a great matchup for the W’s. Lawson and Igoudala seem like the crucial players- the W’s have no one who can stay in front of a healthy Lawson, and matching up the rookie Barnes on the Olympian Igoudala should be a huge advantage for the Nugs. The reason the W’s have a chance is 1. Lawson may not be 100%, and 2. Gallo went down just a few weeks ago, meaning the Nugs are still figuring out their wing rotation, how to feature Iggy on offense, and how to replace Danilo’s 3-point shooting. The truth is that without Gallo the Nugs are not a good shooting team.

Ryan

Nuggets averaged 106.1 points per game, most in the NBA.

Ron

As Denver knows what we do well, we know what they do well, so hopefully the coaching staff will be scheming to disrupt them. Proper planning prevents poor performance.

Playoffs!

The Warriors are underdogs, but man, what a season. If we go back to October and somebody were to predict that the Warriors will finish ahead of the Lakers, draw Denver in the first round, and that Steph will play 78 games and break the NBA record for most made threes in a season, we would have all labeled said person as an extreme homer.

It is unrealistic to expect more than a single win in the series against the Nuggets, but regardless, it has been a great season in so many ways.

Marc

Bogut isn’t quick enough to defend pick and roll against Denver and Lawson. He will be a non-factor. The loss of Gallinari isn’t really much of an issue because Chandler is actually an upgrade, especially defensively. Unless Thompson can shoot the lights out the Warriors don’t seem to have anything more than a puncher’s chance.

The Warriors took advantage of their schedule and took advantage of the injuries to other teams this season, but they are out-classed against Denver. More importantly, they need to make some tough decisions this off-season to make sure they don’t take a step back next season.

EastBayWarrior

Bogut, Lee and Landry are going to have to step up and keep Mcgee and Faried off the glass…

I think Devner not having Gallinari helps the Dubs a lot because Lee can stay under the basket more.

It will be a battle.

LETS GO DUBS!!!

http://eyemsick.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

Marc nailed it. I was initially optimistic, but the more I study the numbers and match-ups, the more pessimistic I get.

eliaselbaho

I love all the comments and pretty sure most are realistic. So I guess we just stay
Home and let Denver move on to second round. In my book if I am in a the playoffs I didnot get there cause I am cute, I got there because I played a full season of basketball, and a very exciting basketball I might add, all games starts at 0-0. Wheather you think they gonna lose or not, wear your team colors with pride till the fat lady sings. Now that’s how you show you are a As fan.
Dd

Mark M

Excellent break down TK. But the thing that worries me most is Denver’s depth. They can go a quality 9 or 10 strong with Lawson back. And the speed of their game can wear down a lesser deep team like our Ws. We have some depth but nothing close to the caliber of athletes the Nugs throw at you in athletic wave after wave.

If we can keep it close, Denver doesn’t close well and we’ll stand a decent chance at that point. When Denver wins, it will be by a substantial margin. If the Warriors win, prepare for a barn burner baby!!!

The Turlock Tornado

There’s a reason the Nuggets run teams off the floor at home. Other teams are gassed to play at that altitude. The Warriors would be smart to already be in Denver acclimating (and practicing at altitude).

TKKnoweldge

Let me summarize this brilliantly as TK JUST STATED:

So, as with most series involving solid teams, this break-down starts with the best player, and the logical question: Can Denver keep Curry from dominating games with his shooting?

The answer: Yes, the Nuggets probably can because they’ve already shown they can do a decent job vs. Curry in the regular-season series, which Denver won 3-1.

Interestingly, while Curry shot a blistering 66.7% from three-point distance in the four games vs. Denver, he only averaged 18.8 points… and that’s because he only made 25.6% from inside the arc.

Curry shoots about 44.6 percent on 3 pointers. Then why does he shoot about the same percentage overall????

it’s because in the game of basketball……you have to do more than shoot 3s

thank you ….good morning….good afternoon….and goodnight

he’s going down

Leonard Bonilla

Blah, Blah , Blah. All the if’s and or buts do not matter. The Warriors are not good enough to beat Denver in a series. If they do, it will be the major upset of all professional sports this sports year. I t will be, in fact, a major miracle!

Old Stater Fan

Klay, Klay, Klay, MUST knock down all the open looks he will get. He does and the Staters win the series.