000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. BELIEVE WEAKENING
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD WEAKEN ACTIVITY SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING IN CASE IT MAKES IT TO KUIN. IF IT DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF THESE STORMS THAT COULD AFFECT
KUIN WOULD BE 0400 TO 0600 UTC. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TOWARD KCOU AND THE METRO TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RELIED ON THE GFS IN TERMS OF BOTH FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DO AGREE THAT FRONT LIKELY WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY...BELIEVE
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY BE
SOUTH OF KCOU AND METRO TAF SITES BUT DID LEAVE A VC GROUP IN
THERE FOR NOW AND HOPEFULLY SEE A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
LAMBERT FIELD. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA A LA
GFS. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES FORM
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH OF AREA BUT LEFT A VC GROUP IN FOR
NOW FOR CONTINUITY SAKE AND WILL EVALUATE 0000 UTC MODEL GUDANCE
TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
GOSSELIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 77 90 74 87 / 20 20 40 30
QUINCY 68 84 65 82 / 20 10 30 30
COLUMBIA 69 89 70 86 / 10 20 20 40
JEFFERSON CITY 71 91 71 87 / 10 20 20 30
SALEM 71 88 67 85 / 20 20 20 30
FARMINGTON 72 91 72 88 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX