Whit Dickman wrote:I mean, Rielly-Hainsey / Muzzin-Zaitsev / Gardiner-Dermott is easily the most even spreading of talent. I.e., none of the pairings will be a liability. It means having a weaker top pair, though.

I would prefer that Babcock load up the top 4 and play his weakest defenceman together in sheltered minutes. We already know what Rielly-Hainsey looks like against tough competition in the playoffs, and it's not great.

I know it's just plus minus, but Rielly and Hainsey are each something like +25

I'm willing to experiment with the pairs and see what we have. If we play a 1 line team like Boston, we can do Muzzin-Rielly at home and this even system on the road. Our biggest problem was that we would get trounced whenever Bergeron hit the ice, and I'm afraid of Gardiner-Zaitsev

Jensen is very good at moving the puck, just not borderline elite like Gardiner. But realistically, no one the Leafs add is going to be able to replicate that aspect of Gardiner's game unless they drastically reallocate their cap.

The gap between Gardiner and Dermott or Gardiner and Muzzin is smaller than the gap between Zaitsev or Hainsey and Jensen. Even if Jensen is a worse puck mover than Gardiner, he's much better than Hainsey or Zaitsev. That brings a lot of value in mixing up breakouts. Plus, Muzzin and Dermott are pretty effective at moving the puck as well.

Rielly - JensenMuzzin - DermottRosen - Lilypad/Ozhiganov

Would be a sneakily good backend at moving the puck and defending. Dermott needs more minutes and effectively replaced what Jake brings (warts and all). Muzzin > Zaitsev on the second pairing, and Jensen > Hainsey on the top pairing, both in terms of puck movement and defensive ability.

"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase"[...]all models are wrong, some are useful." - George E. P. Box

Rather take the money we’ll pay Johnsson (plus money freed by Gards’ departure) and put it into a better D than Jensen. Losing Gards and adding Jensen isn’t even treading water, it’s getting worse. We have plenty of speed and offence up front. Johnsson is great, but not a core piece.

Curry Rage wrote:Rather take the money we’ll pay Johnsson (plus money freed by Gards’ departure) and put it into a better D than Jensen. Losing Gards and adding Jensen isn’t even treading water, it’s getting worse. We have plenty of speed and offence up front. Johnsson is great, but not a core piece.

The Muzzin trade was protection against losing Gardiner, he takes his spot after this season. As for Jensen, good luck getting a comparable top 4 RHD for an 800k cap hit.

The Muzzin trade still leaves us needing a top-4 RD. I don’t want a comparable player to Jensen, I want a better one. His 800K caphit lasts until April.

We need to use assets like Gardiner, Johnsson, etc to see if we can get a better option. I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that something similar is why there’s been so much smoke between CAR and us all year.

Curry Rage wrote:The Muzzin trade still leaves us needing a top-4 RD. I don’t want a comparable player to Jensen, I want a better one. His 800K caphit lasts until April.

We need to use assets like Gardiner, Johnsson, etc to see if we can get a better option. I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that something similar is why there’s been so much smoke between CAR and us all year.

The attractive part of Jensen for me is that we probably don't have to give up Johnsson + to acquire him. I also don't see him netting much as a FA because he doesn't have a track record of playing in the top 4 before this season and his traditional numbers don't jump off the page at you. The Leafs need some good buy low targets like that because of their cap. The fact that he fills a hole is a bonus.

The assumption is that Gardiner won’t be here to do that and Dermott’s offensive ceiling is still in question. Neither Muzzin nor Jensen fully address that loss of offence, PP QB ability, etc. “Gaudy numbers”, i.e. actual real world production, matter.

Curry Rage wrote:The assumption is that Gardiner won’t be here to do that and Dermott’s offensive ceiling is still in question. Neither Muzzin nor Jensen fully address that loss of offence, PP QB ability, etc. “Gaudy numbers”, i.e. actual real world production, matter.

The problem is that you are only referencing point totals. They just aren't that good of an evaluation tool for D because of how dependent it is on opportunity. Case in point, Nikita Zaitsev in his rookie season with pp time vs the two seasons since without. You give Muzzin, Jensen and Dermott Gardiner's pp time on this roster and each of them is probably gonna give you 30+.

There is more to offense from the back end than just points. It's making a first pass, exiting the zone, breaking up plays etc. Jensen may not have the raw point totals to his name, but when he is on the ice his team generally generates more offense as a result. As an aside, I have watched a few Red Wings games because of Jensen's rumored availability, and his passing and decision making pass the eye test. He looks comfortable and poised with the puck.

Thomas Malthus wrote:I’ll take an Anton Stralman type guy on my team anytime.

A bona fide top 4 guy who has shifted into a more defensive role because there are two better offensive D yet still produces 25-30P with little PP time, but could play on your PP if needed? Now that’s a 3 you can run with. Yes, please. He’s not having the best year (injury, etc) but he’s the sort of 3 you see on a lot of the best clubs from a production standpoint. Hanafin, Ekholm, Vlasic, Morrissey, etc.

We have Reilly, Gardiner* and now Muzzin but may lose Gardiner unless moves are made elsewhere. Muzzin could be that 3, but then who’s your 2? That’s without the problem of RS/LS taken into account.

Jensen is the sort of guy you get to play minutes beside that guy. Different kettle of fish.

There is more to offense from the back end than just points. It's making a first pass, exiting the zone, breaking up plays etc. Jensen may not have the raw point totals to his name, but when he is on the ice his team generally generates more offense as a result. As an aside, I have watched a few Red Wings games because of Jensen's rumored availability, and his passing and decision making pass the eye test. He looks comfortable and poised with the puck.

Tell me about it. It’s just that when you do those things really well, it tends to translate into point production. The sort of player we need does all that ++.

Re: Schmidt, Miller and opportunity, those guys were all like 24 or 25 when their moment came and they looked better from a traditional and analytics perspective at an earlier age. Jensen wasn’t even in the league at a similar age. For years I’ve been hearing from all the numbers guys that 28 is essentially a player’s peak, give or take a few years, with exceptions made for exceptional players. It’s not like there was a tonne of competition in DET keeping him back. Kronwall, Green, Smith, Ericsson, deKeyser. Those are the kind of guys who he was playing behind and when he broke in, just about all of them only played half the year due to injuries.

He’s a solid player playing in a good system having a nice year. I can’t predict the future, but the chances that he breaks out as a top pairing guy *on a contending team* at this stage of his career are slim. He’d be a nice add to replace Hainsey or even Zaitsev (if we can be rid of him) but in my mind that still leaves us short of a top end RD. You win with your top 3 D on the ice. We have a great collection of forwards up front. Trying to scrimp and save on craftsmen on D and cobble together a rag tag bunch of analytics darlings and say a prayer that they’ll all break out seems like a waste of precious time to me. Get me the guy who’s doing it *obviously*.

W/0 Gards, Reilly/Muzzin/? Dermott maybe. But you’re still weak down the right side of the ice.

A look back over previous Cup champs shows a pattern. PIT are the exception, though in 2015-16 they got a huge year out of Schultz and managed to squeeze a tonne out of some good-not-great guys in the POs. So, it can work but I’d rather have the comfort of knowing I’ve got 2-3 guys I’m more than happy to put on the ice against anyone. No hoping.

There is more to offense from the back end than just points. It's making a first pass, exiting the zone, breaking up plays etc. Jensen may not have the raw point totals to his name, but when he is on the ice his team generally generates more offense as a result. As an aside, I have watched a few Red Wings games because of Jensen's rumored availability, and his passing and decision making pass the eye test. He looks comfortable and poised with the puck.

Tell me about it. It’s just that when you do those things really well, it tends to translate into point production. The sort of player we need does all that ++.

Re: Schmidt, Miller and opportunity, those guys were all like 24 or 25 when their moment came and they looked better from a traditional and analytics perspective at an earlier age. Jensen wasn’t even in the league at a similar age. For years I’ve been hearing from all the numbers guys that 28 is essentially a player’s peak, give or take a few years, with exceptions made for exceptional players. It’s not like there was a tonne of competition in DET keeping him back. Kronwall, Green, Smith, Ericsson, deKeyser. Those are the kind of guys who he was playing behind and when he broke in, just about all of them only played half the year due to injuries.

He’s a solid player playing in a good system having a nice year. I can’t predict the future, but the chances that he breaks out as a top pairing guy *on a contending team* at this stage of his career are slim. He’d be a nice add to replace Hainsey or even Zaitsev (if we can be rid of him) but in my mind that still leaves us short of a top end RD. You win with your top 3 D on the ice. We have a great collection of forwards up front. Trying to scrimp and save on craftsmen on D and cobble together a rag tag bunch of analytics darlings and say a prayer that they’ll all break out seems like a waste of precious time to me. Get me the guy who’s doing it *obviously*.

Schmidt was an undrafted college FA who broke out at 26, and Miller was a 5th round pick that broke out at 25. Both guys were acquired for free at the waiver draft so it's not like their stocks were high going into Vegas either. Savy teams pluck guys like this for less than their worth and profit simply by giving them an opportunity higher up the lineup. Vegas has done it with several players and reaped the benefits. The added bonus of Jensen types is that they don't break the bank to acquire, so if you are wrong it is really easy to shift directions.

Moreover, where are the Leafs finding this proven top pairing RHD, and where are they getting the cap to pay them?

W/0 Gards, Reilly/Muzzin/? Dermott maybe. But you’re still weak down the right side of the ice.

A look back over previous Cup champs shows a pattern. PIT are the exception, though in 2015-16 they got a huge year out of Schultz and managed to squeeze a tonne out of some good-not-great guys in the POs. So, it can work but I’d rather have the comfort of knowing I’ve got 2-3 guys I’m more than happy to put on the ice against anyone. No hoping.

Which one of those teams has: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Kadri, Johnsson and Kapanen up front?

AGENT ZERO wrote:There is more to offense from the back end than just points. It's making a first pass, exiting the zone, breaking up plays etc. Jensen may not have the raw point totals to his name, but when he is on the ice his team generally generates more offense as a result. As an aside, I have watched a few Red Wings games because of Jensen's rumored availability, and his passing and decision making pass the eye test. He looks comfortable and poised with the puck.

Tell me about it. It’s just that when you do those things really well, it tends to translate into point production. The sort of player we need does all that ++.

Re: Schmidt, Miller and opportunity, those guys were all like 24 or 25 when their moment came and they looked better from a traditional and analytics perspective at an earlier age. Jensen wasn’t even in the league at a similar age. For years I’ve been hearing from all the numbers guys that 28 is essentially a player’s peak, give or take a few years, with exceptions made for exceptional players. It’s not like there was a tonne of competition in DET keeping him back. Kronwall, Green, Smith, Ericsson, deKeyser. Those are the kind of guys who he was playing behind and when he broke in, just about all of them only played half the year due to injuries.

He’s a solid player playing in a good system having a nice year. I can’t predict the future, but the chances that he breaks out as a top pairing guy *on a contending team* at this stage of his career are slim. He’d be a nice add to replace Hainsey or even Zaitsev (if we can be rid of him) but in my mind that still leaves us short of a top end RD. You win with your top 3 D on the ice. We have a great collection of forwards up front. Trying to scrimp and save on craftsmen on D and cobble together a rag tag bunch of analytics darlings and say a prayer that they’ll all break out seems like a waste of precious time to me. Get me the guy who’s doing it *obviously*.

Schmidt was an undrafted college FA who broke out at 26, and Miller was a 5th round pick that broke out at 25. Both guys were acquired for free at the waiver draft so it's not like their stocks were high going into Vegas either. Savy teams pluck guys like this for less than their worth and profit simply by giving them an opportunity higher up the lineup. Vegas has done it with several players and reaped the benefits. The added bonus of Jensen types is that they don't break the bank to acquire, so if you are wrong it is really easy to shift directions.

Moreover, where are the Leafs finding this proven top pairing RHD, and where are they getting the cap to pay them?

Schmidt was already getting praise for his play in the POs the year before. I remember because he came in and looked really good against us. His regular season PPG in 60GP and about 15:00 ATOI was higher than Jensen’s is now (not a single PP point) and his Corsis were pretty. Miller was 24 years old at the start of his first VGK season, coming off two years of very pretty Corsis and a PPG avg. higher than Jensen’s now, in his peak years.

Either way, they aren’t reasons to think Jensen will do the same outside of a loose association you’ve made. Nothing in his numbers suggests there’s a big breakout coming.

W/0 Gards, Reilly/Muzzin/? Dermott maybe. But you’re still weak down the right side of the ice.

A look back over previous Cup champs shows a pattern. PIT are the exception, though in 2015-16 they got a huge year out of Schultz and managed to squeeze a tonne out of some good-not-great guys in the POs. So, it can work but I’d rather have the comfort of knowing I’ve got 2-3 guys I’m more than happy to put on the ice against anyone. No hoping.

Which one of those teams has: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Kadri, Johnsson and Kapanen up front?

I suggested above using Johnsson as part of the package for a RD. I’d be happy to have fewer of those guys and plug holes up front (and on D) with “efficient” players and have three D like those teams I listed above because I think that puts us in a much better position while Tavares’ is still in his prime.

Gardiner should be dangled to. E.g. A team like CAR might swap him (++) for a Hamilton or Faulk to get better balance on their D, and add needed offence, as long as they had assurances that he’d re-sign in the summer.

Curry Rage wrote:Tell me about it. It’s just that when you do those things really well, it tends to translate into point production. The sort of player we need does all that ++.

Re: Schmidt, Miller and opportunity, those guys were all like 24 or 25 when their moment came and they looked better from a traditional and analytics perspective at an earlier age. Jensen wasn’t even in the league at a similar age. For years I’ve been hearing from all the numbers guys that 28 is essentially a player’s peak, give or take a few years, with exceptions made for exceptional players. It’s not like there was a tonne of competition in DET keeping him back. Kronwall, Green, Smith, Ericsson, deKeyser. Those are the kind of guys who he was playing behind and when he broke in, just about all of them only played half the year due to injuries.

He’s a solid player playing in a good system having a nice year. I can’t predict the future, but the chances that he breaks out as a top pairing guy *on a contending team* at this stage of his career are slim. He’d be a nice add to replace Hainsey or even Zaitsev (if we can be rid of him) but in my mind that still leaves us short of a top end RD. You win with your top 3 D on the ice. We have a great collection of forwards up front. Trying to scrimp and save on craftsmen on D and cobble together a rag tag bunch of analytics darlings and say a prayer that they’ll all break out seems like a waste of precious time to me. Get me the guy who’s doing it *obviously*.

Schmidt was an undrafted college FA who broke out at 26, and Miller was a 5th round pick that broke out at 25. Both guys were acquired for free at the waiver draft so it's not like their stocks were high going into Vegas either. Savy teams pluck guys like this for less than their worth and profit simply by giving them an opportunity higher up the lineup. Vegas has done it with several players and reaped the benefits. The added bonus of Jensen types is that they don't break the bank to acquire, so if you are wrong it is really easy to shift directions.

Moreover, where are the Leafs finding this proven top pairing RHD, and where are they getting the cap to pay them?

Schmidt was already getting praise for his play in the POs the year before. I remember because he came in and looked really good against us. His regular season PPG in 60GP and about 15:00 ATOI was higher than Jensen’s is now (not a single PP point) and his Corsis were pretty. Miller was 24 years old at the start of his first VGK season, coming off two years of very pretty Corsis and a PPG avg. higher than Jensen’s now, in his peak years.

Either way, they aren’t reasons to think Jensen will do the same outside of a loose association you’ve made. Nothing in his numbers suggests there’s a big breakout coming.

Their are many reasons to think Jensen is already doing the same, all three players put up elite underlying metrics in sheltered minutes and were able to maintain positive possession even when given additional responsibility. For whatever reason though you are hung up on point totals.

I also think it's funny that you think Schmidt's last season in Washington was praise worthy (17 points in 60 games - 0 pp pts), but not this season from Jensen (15 points in 57 games - 0 pp pts). Shifting the goal posts much? Yes, Schmidt had less time on ice, but he also had superior linemates and played on the best team by record since the lockout with the #1 rated offense that year.

W/0 Gards, Reilly/Muzzin/? Dermott maybe. But you’re still weak down the right side of the ice.

A look back over previous Cup champs shows a pattern. PIT are the exception, though in 2015-16 they got a huge year out of Schultz and managed to squeeze a tonne out of some good-not-great guys in the POs. So, it can work but I’d rather have the comfort of knowing I’ve got 2-3 guys I’m more than happy to put on the ice against anyone. No hoping.

Which one of those teams has: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Kadri, Johnsson and Kapanen up front?

I suggested above using Johnsson as part of the package for a RD. I’d be happy to have fewer of those guys and plug holes up front (and on D) with “efficient” players and have three D like those teams I listed above because I think that puts us in a much better position while Tavares’ is still in his prime.

Gardiner should be dangled to. E.g. A team like CAR might swap him (++) for a Hamilton or Faulk to get better balance on their D, and add needed offence, as long as they had assurances that he’d re-sign in the summer.

No one is trading away the type of defenceman you are talking about for Andreas Johnsson, and that doesn't rectify the cap issue. The Leafs can't afford to trade Johnsson for a higher cap, any deal made has to be cap for cap otherwise the Leafs bonuses will carry over into next season when they have no space. There is also no way that the Hurricanes (or any team for that matter) will trade a quality RHD for an expiring LHD as the primary piece. The type of trade you want is going to take Nylander or Kapanen + Gardiner.

Curry Rage wrote:Age. The goalposts are fluorescent yellow and rooted in 10’ of concrete. Age. Never mind that Jensen isn’t even equalling their pre-breakout numbers now.

Points matter (the game is about scoring more than other teams) and they’re generally a result of the underlying metrics and skills being there.

I disagree, you can help your team score from the back end without generating points. I also believe that points for a defenceman is often more about opportunity than actual ability. There are alot of defenders that can give you 30 with a strong offensive team and pp minutes. Zaitsev had 36 as a rookie, and since being moved into a role similar to the one Jensen is currenly playing has 20 points in 117 games. None of this is to mention the obvious caveat that Jensen is more defensive minded which is something the Leafs (especially Rielly) lack.

I didn’t suggest they would trade a RHD for Johnsson. I suggested the basic framework of a deal involving both Gardiner and a forward. I might be willing to part with Kapanen if that’s the price of shoring up the D and relieving us of the imbalance we have right now.

I’d have to sit down and work out the numbers, but getting that guy lets you dump Zaitsev for a song, relieving many of the Cap problems you’re talking about. You’d have a better D at the top end and then you can fiddle all you like with efficiencies.

Curry Rage wrote:Age. The goalposts are fluorescent yellow and rooted in 10’ of concrete. Age. Never mind that Jensen isn’t even equalling their pre-breakout numbers now.

Points matter (the game is about scoring more than other teams) and they’re generally a result of the underlying metrics and skills being there.

I disagree, you can help your team score from the back end without generating points. I also believe that points for a defenceman is often more about opportunity than actual ability. There are alot of defenders that can give you 30 with a strong offensive team and pp minutes. Zaitsev had 36 as a rookie, and since being moved into a role similar to the one Jensen is currenly playing has 20 points in 117 games. None of this is to mention the obvious caveat that Jensen is more defensive minded which is something the Leafs (especially Rielly) lack.

I haven’t argued otherwise, but there’s craftsmen, and there are master tradesmen. The list of top scoring D who can’t exit their zone, make a good first pass, etc. is a short one. Jensen is the guy who you partner with that guy.

Thomas Malthus wrote:I’ll take an Anton Stralman type guy on my team anytime.

A bona fide top 4 guy who has shifted into a more defensive role because there are two better offensive D yet still produces 25-30P with little PP time, but could play on your PP if needed? Now that’s a 3 you can run with. Yes, please. He’s not having the best year (injury, etc) but he’s the sort of 3 you see on a lot of the best clubs from a production standpoint. Hanafin, Ekholm, Vlasic, Morrissey, etc.

We have Reilly, Gardiner* and now Muzzin but may lose Gardiner unless moves are made elsewhere. Muzzin could be that 3, but then who’s your 2? That’s without the problem of RS/LS taken into account.

Jensen is the sort of guy you get to play minutes beside that guy. Different kettle of fish.

You're describing what I always called an off guy. Really good d man who excels at playing beside a top pairing guy. Can't be the lead guy on a top pairing and at some point, flounders when put in that role. Mtl has had plenty over the years, Craig Rivet, Lyle Odelin, in St.L, J Bo became a great off guy, but be wary of thinking 'he just needs his chance'.

Thomas Malthus wrote:I’ll take an Anton Stralman type guy on my team anytime.

A bona fide top 4 guy who has shifted into a more defensive role because there are two better offensive D yet still produces 25-30P with little PP time, but could play on your PP if needed? Now that’s a 3 you can run with. Yes, please. He’s not having the best year (injury, etc) but he’s the sort of 3 you see on a lot of the best clubs from a production standpoint. Hanafin, Ekholm, Vlasic, Morrissey, etc.

We have Reilly, Gardiner* and now Muzzin but may lose Gardiner unless moves are made elsewhere. Muzzin could be that 3, but then who’s your 2? That’s without the problem of RS/LS taken into account.

Jensen is the sort of guy you get to play minutes beside that guy. Different kettle of fish.

You're describing what I always called an off guy. Really good d man who excels at playing beside a top pairing guy. Can't be the lead guy on a top pairing and at some point, flounders when put in that role. Mtl has had plenty over the years, Craig Rivet, Lyle Odelin, in St.L, J Bo became a great off guy, but be wary of thinking 'he just needs his chance'.

None of those guys are doing this with the puck with the obvious exception of a younger Jbo who was a stud #1.

Curry Rage wrote:Age. The goalposts are fluorescent yellow and rooted in 10’ of concrete. Age. Never mind that Jensen isn’t even equalling their pre-breakout numbers now.

Points matter (the game is about scoring more than other teams) and they’re generally a result of the underlying metrics and skills being there.

I disagree, you can help your team score from the back end without generating points. I also believe that points for a defenceman is often more about opportunity than actual ability. There are alot of defenders that can give you 30 with a strong offensive team and pp minutes. Zaitsev had 36 as a rookie, and since being moved into a role similar to the one Jensen is currenly playing has 20 points in 117 games. None of this is to mention the obvious caveat that Jensen is more defensive minded which is something the Leafs (especially Rielly) lack.

I haven’t argued otherwise, but there’s craftsmen, and there are master tradesmen. The list of top scoring D who can’t exit their zone, make a good first pass, etc. is a short one. Jensen is the guy who you partner with that guy.

If we lose Gardiner, we have one of those: Rielly.

We are arguing the same thing then. I would love to add the guy you are describing, but I doubt that type of trade is available mid season. So my focus is on anything that will remove Hainsey and Z from playing 20 minutes in the playoffs because that will kill this team.

AGENT ZERO wrote:I disagree, you can help your team score from the back end without generating points. I also believe that points for a defenceman is often more about opportunity than actual ability. There are alot of defenders that can give you 30 with a strong offensive team and pp minutes. Zaitsev had 36 as a rookie, and since being moved into a role similar to the one Jensen is currenly playing has 20 points in 117 games. None of this is to mention the obvious caveat that Jensen is more defensive minded which is something the Leafs (especially Rielly) lack.

I haven’t argued otherwise, but there’s craftsmen, and there are master tradesmen. The list of top scoring D who can’t exit their zone, make a good first pass, etc. is a short one. Jensen is the guy who you partner with that guy.

If we lose Gardiner, we have one of those: Rielly.

We are arguing the same thing then. I would love to add the guy you are describing, but I doubt that type of trade is available mid season. So my focus is on anything that will remove Hainsey and Z from playing 20 minutes in the playoffs because that will kill this team.

I’m focussed on the next five years of Tavares plus Matthews. I’m not even that worried about this year’s playoffs. I think we need to restructure the D and the Cap so that we’re less forward heavy overall and more top heavy and balanced on D.