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Probability of College Ps Attaining Projections Topic

How likely is it that college pitcher draftees will reach their projections? Obviously, they have less time to do so than high school guys (but they start more developed), but I wonder if there's been any real or anecdotal study on this. I've got the #2 pick in my draft coming up and this will impact my pick.

College guys tend to grow a maximum 10-15 points in the pertinent categories, regardless of what their projections say. High schoolers are usually able to grow 20-25 points. Without knowing how much you have invested in HS and Coll. scouting, I would guess the 18 y/o will be the better player. I would expect him to end up with mid 70s control, and LH/RH in the low 70s, with four solid pitches. He looks like a reliable SP2 to me. The 22 y/o's control and splits will be similar, but his pitches won't be as good. I'd project him as a SP3/SP4...but he should be ready for the ML in one year, if that matters...