No Trend Emerges From House Race

September 10, 1989|By Steve Daley, Chicago Tribune.

WASHINGTON — The victory by Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida`s recent special congressional election was welcome news for President Bush`s party. But looking toward the 1990 midterm elections, the result does not appear to signal any major trend or carry any message from voters on a single issue.

Political observers will be watching four more special congressional elections slated this year.

On Tuesday, two more House seats will be contested, one in the Texas district of former House Speaker Jim Wright, the other in the California district of former House Majority Whip Tony Coelho. Both Democrats resigned earlier this year rather than face congressional inquiries into their finances.

Democrats believe they will hold Coelho`s seat in California`s Central Valley, while some Republicans believe they can compete for the Ft. Worth seat Wright held for more than 30 years.

The other two special elections result from the deaths of Rep. Mickey Leland, a Texas Democrat, and Rep. Larkin Smith, a Mississippi Republican. Both men died in plane crashes last month, Leland in Ethiopia and Smith in his home district.

Democrats expect to hold Leland`s downtown Houston district with little difficulty. His widow, Alison, declined an invitation to run for the office, but did endorse a Houston city councilman in the Nov. 7 contest.

Smith was a first-term member, and Democrats think they have a chance to claim the Gulf Coast seat in the Oct. 3 election.

By winning the Miami seat that was left vacant several months ago by the death of Democratic Rep. Claude Pepper, House Republicans made up the seat they lost in Indiana earlier this year when Democrat Jill Long beat a Republican opponent for the seat once held by Vice President Dan Quayle.

In two other special elections this year, Republicans held on to the Wyoming seat vacated by Dick Cheney when he became secretary of defense. Democrats kept the Alabama seat made vacant by the death of Rep. Bill Nichols. There are 255 Democrats and 176 Republicans in the House, with four seats vacant.

Ros-Lehtinen, a state senator, won the 18th District seat Pepper held for 26 years. She defeated Democrat Gerald Richman, a businessman, by collecting 53 percent of the vote to his 47 percent.

The vote split cleanly along ethnic lines. A 60 percent turnout in Miami`s Cuban community and Ros-Lehtinen`s ability to hold 90 percent of that bloc provided the difference in the bitter contest. She becomes the first Cuban-American to serve in Congress.

Richman received about 85 percent of the Anglo vote and nearly all the black vote, but a relatively low turnout by those groups doomed his campaign. Antiabortion groups made much of Ros-Lehtinen`s victory and her antiabortion stance, but the issue was rarely raised during the campaign, which turned on the changing demographics of the district. There was not even a debate between the candidates, so their fundamental difference of opinion over abortion was never aired.

Republican political consultant Eddie Mahe argues that, as in Miami, abortion is not likely to be a pivotal issue in many congressional races next year.

``You can pick out areas, particularly urban districts, where it might be a swing issue in an election,`` Mahe said. ``But I don`t see it as an overriding factor in hundreds of races, the way it`s being talked about now. Other issues, other factors, will intrude.``