I track people who are disrupting the world of mobile technology. Non-conformists, innovators and agitators are this blog's unsung heroes, from entrepreneurs to scientists, to rebellious hackers. I'm the author of "We Are Anonymous: Inside the Hacker World of LulzSec, Anonymous and the Global Cyber Insurgency", (Little Brown, 2012) which The New York Times called a "lively, startling book that reads as 'The Social Network' for group hackers." I recently relocated to Forbes' San Francisco office, and was previously Forbes' London bureau chief from 2008-12, interviewing British billionaires like Philip Green and controversial figures like Mohammed Al Fayed; I wrote last year's billionaires cover story on Russia's Yuri Milner, and have broken stories like the Facebook-Spotify partnership in 2011. Before all this I had stints at the BBC and as a radio journalist. You can watch me on 'The Daily Show' here. If you have a story idea or tip, e-mail me at polson@forbes.com or follow me on Twitter: parmy.

Who Might Unseat Apple And Samsung As Handset Kings?

Here’s a fun statistic: at least eight multinational companies compete for the big business of making mobile devices.

How many make all the profit? Two.

So positioned is Samsung and Apple. Thanks to innovative products, a tight grip on supply chains and good relationships with carriers, among other reasons, Apple has 69% share of all operating profit among the planet’s leading device makers, while Samsung has 34%, according to a research note today from Canaccord Genuity. (See chart above.)

All other competitors barely get a sliver of this profit pie. Nokia, Google-owned Motorola and Sony operated at a loss in 2012, while BlackBerry (formerly Research in Motion), LG and HTC barely broke even.

Canaccord’s Michael Walkley expects the industry to continue looking this way through the beginning of this year and beyond. Samsung might gain a little on Apple after releasing its Galaxy S4, likely in March, and Apple might grow its own profit share if it ever releases a cheaper iPhone.

Though a cheaper iPhone aimed at emerging markets might put a dent in Apple’s margins, it would probably still grow their absolute share of industry profits, says Walkley. “They’d be taking profits from segments they haven’t entered yet.”

Apple’s mobile device business, its biggest contributor to group profits, already boasted a 41%-operating margin for 2012. Samsung’s operating margin stands at 21%, still miles ahead of their closest margin competitor, HTC at 6%.

You almost get the feeling Apple and Samsung could stay up there forever. But they won’t, because industry leaders come and go. Back in 2008, it was Nokia and Research in Motion gobbling up the profits. Today it is Samsung and Apple. Who will it be tomorrow?

“The wild card out there would be somebody new, like an Amazon who has been disruptive to other hardware makers by being willing to sell tablets to break even,” said Walkley. “Google with Motorola may also be getting more serious about making proprietary devices.”

It will be new players who come to rule this market, not previously dominant names like Nokia or RIM, he contends. People were fascinated to watch the launch of BlackBerry 10 last week, and to track the fortunes of Windows Phone, but Walkley is skeptical that either mobile platform will crack the dominance of Apple’s iOS or Android. Of the 20 best-selling Android phones, he adds, 14 of them are made by Samsung.

And while a gutsy company like Huawei has recently climbed the ranks to become the world’s third-biggest handset maker by shipments, it probably won’t be a hardware company like this one either. “Making a good hardware device is tough. You have to build a brand and do marketing. What does [Huawei] offer that’s different? It’s pure hardware.”

“In that scenario,” he said, “someone who’s going to be taking the profits is someone who can really transform the market with a must-have device because of content. Not some hardware guy or a RIM comeback.”

“It’s all about software services and ecosystem,” Walkley added. “Today you need great hardware to make it run and you need software to differentiate.”

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you sound like a berry bear. apple and samsung will make a profit but people are honestly getting tired of apple. samsung will always be named a company that doesnt produce quality only quanity. blackberry is the way to go.

BlackBerry, not RIM, is killing Apple today, their phone is a killer and Apple can’t do anything about it. Let’s hope they pay a higher dividend and make more promises they can’t keep because they sure can’t innovate.

A business has to be profitable in order to be profitable, its products and services have to be compelling to sell and be profitable. Apple products and services are the most compelling in the world. The author’s focus seems to be focused on Apple products and services continue to remain compelling, there are no doubts that Apple products and services will remain the most compelling in the world, the reasons they are compelling are moving targets, but Apple is so big, powerful, strong in growth, cash rich, deeply talented, exceptionally managed that there is no way anyone can be as compelling as Apple, thus the draw of Apple is growing stronger, not weaker, leaving not enough no room for the competitions, but Apple’s profits are growing by entering other industries such as Television, and other industries after that. Apple is managing its growth extremely carefully. As computers, operating systems, and apps are the staple of Apple, Apple will first move all the manufacturing processes back into the US forming a much more controlled and synergistic foundation within US allowing Apple to design and develop trusted technologies and fabrications which cannot be let outside the US (Siri technologies for example). With this next generation of Apple technologies Apple would safely proceed to apply copy-proof mind boggling science and technologies in developing next generation products and services that will make the current world look like the Cambrian Age. The label ‘Made In USA’ will firstly catapult the United States into a far superior nation leaving the rest of the world far behind, and then only selectively allow USA’s most trusted and reliable friend nations access to the ‘Made In USA’ products and services. Watch as this kind of future unfold. Is China included in this future? Probably not.

“They won’t, because industry leaders come and go. ” You have got it right! Do you know the rise of APPL and SAMSUNG was due to better product compare to RIMM and NOK in the past but the story has turn other way around since BB Z10 makes SAMSUNG and APPL handheld device out dated.Do you know if there is one product in the same category offer better functionality than other and offer great price compare to other,You most likely to pick the better one.I believe last time the users picked APPL and SAMSUNG now they are picking up BB Z10 and They have start dumping APPL and others.So this come and go is based on the fact that the product in offering.It does not mean that the consumers will not return to the old company that did not keep up in the past.There are strong anecdotal evidence from the carriers that APPL and SAMSUNG consumers are switching to BB Z10 that give BB Z10 more than 50% rise at the launch.

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interesting article. my point of contention is in the notion of what group controls the technology for tomorrow. without LG, there would be no ‘retina’ display; as well as chips from TSMC, samsung and ‘glass’ from Corning, there would be no ‘smartphone’. after seeing products at CES, i was left in awe at flexible displays. strangely the only two companies with the capability to have flexible touch surfaces were samsung and corning. each displayed cooperative technology but at different booths. one wonders what consumers would be buying tomorrow if all the devices were essentially the same, except one could bend. apple sells the perception of superiority; whilst licensing most of the hardware that enables their products; [LG's retina natch] so if a flexible display enters the market [useful or no] and every other smartphone company has to either wait or pay-to-play; that would likely be the year of samsung/corning.

also, i would look hard at the chinese mobile market and realize that you could have losses around the world except there and still be doing well… i would venture to say that apple is entirely dependant on the US market; its why tim cook would mention that apple will concentrate more on china but also why the push for a sales ban of competing devices is so important. if apple is 36% in the US compared to samsung’s 30%; you are fighting off stiff competition on home turf, when the largest market [china] sees your competition [android] at 70%+ versus your own 18%. thats a market with over a billion users; and as they say, whats good for china is good for india…