SPECIAL REPORT: Census data show more deaths than births in more than half of the state's counties

Saturday

Jan 18, 2014 at 9:19 PM

FIRST OF THREE PARTS

By Lisa Kernek for Gatehouse Media Illinois

FIRST OF THREE PARTS

A record number of counties in the United States lost people last year, though the country's population as a whole is growing.

In 2012, deaths exceeded births in 36 percent of counties in the United States, according to census data released in March.

"The growing incidence of natural decrease in America has gone largely unnoticed," demographer Kenneth Johnson wrote in a report on the findings, "but new data released on March 14 demonstrate that natural decrease is no longer an isolated phenomenon."

Johnson studies "natural decrease," or the trend of deaths exceeding births. He is based at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute.

"It's essentially a culmination of things," Johnson said in a telephone interview. "The population is aging, particularly the rural population."

And young people have been leaving rural areas to attend college, serve in the armed forces or pursue jobs in cities.

"For decades — generations, really — there haven't been enough economic opportunities to keep young people in those areas," he said.

Natural decrease has been occurring in some rural counties for decades.

But the recent sharp increase in the natural-decrease trend can probably be blamed on the recession, according to Johnson.

"The recession has significantly reduced fertility rates," he said.

That means fewer babies are being born to the declining numbers of young people in many rural areas. Left behind are aging residents. As the old residents die, the population shrinks, because more people are dying than are being born.

"Rural farm counties are the ones that have had the greatest numbers of natural decrease, because they've lost so many of their young population," Johnson said.

In Illinois, more than half

In agriculturally rich Illinois, natural decrease was even more widespread in 2012 than nationally, occurring in more than half of its counties.

"There are many counties in Illinois whose population peaked over a century ago," said Chris Merrett, director of the Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs at Western Illinois University.

Merrett attributes the decline in farmers to mechanization.

"We just need fewer farmers to produce more and more food," he said. "It also means bigger and bigger farms in order to amortize the costs of that — the new tractors, the new combines, the new grain bins."

And fewer people on farms means fewer grocery stores, fewer people attending church and fewer children in schools.

"We've got these counties being always only agricultural. They're the ones that peaked early but then had these long periods of slow decline."

While some counties have declined over decades, natural decrease occurred for the first time in some counties, including Logan and Menard in central Illinois.

The trend of natural decrease has implications for the counties' future, according to Johnson. The shrinking younger population could affect the future of local schools, of obstetric and pediatric care and day-care services. And fewer younger adults make staffing more difficult for volunteer-run fire departments and other groups.

Aging river town

In Havana, an Illinois River town of 3,300 people 50 miles north of Springfield, the Havana Rural Fire Protection District used to have a waiting list.

"It used to be people coming and wanting to join all the time," Chief Gary Blakely said.

But today, the department has four openings to fill on its roster of 24 firefighters.

Finding volunteers "is getting more difficult with the shrinking population and people going away to school or getting jobs elsewhere," Blakely said.

If people commute to Peoria or other cities for work, they are not available to respond to emergency calls during the day, he said.

And many working people cannot commit to the hours required of a volunteer firefighter.

Volunteers must complete close to 100 hours of firefighter training, he said. They must attend one training period and one meeting each month.

"You're asking a guy roughly 10 times a month to do something for the department," he said.

Blakely himself has a day job as a repairman for CenturyLink Phone Co.

The rural department serves a 90-square-mile area outside the Havana city limits and protects 3,000 people, Blakely said.

"We are still able to maintain our services," despite the smaller roster, he said. Three people have applied for the openings, and Blakely predicted that the department would be back to full strength in January.

"I'm very fortunate to have the great people I've got," he added.

Schools suffer, too

The number of people of working age is gradually declining in Havana, the county seat of Mason County, as the population ages.

Census figures show the median age has risen from 32.8 years in 1950 — according to John Drury's 1955 book "This is Mason County, Illinois" — to 44 years in 2010. In other words, half the population of Mason County today is older than 44.

In 1950, births outnumbered deaths: 303 births and 172 deaths were recorded in Mason County.

But that trend reversed with more deaths than births from 2011 to 2012: The Census Bureau reported 125 births and 194 deaths that year.

Mason County is one of 58 counties in Illinois where the population is shrinking because of natural decrease, when deaths exceed births.

Mason County's total population has shrunk from 15,326 in 1950 to 14,666 in 2010.

With fewer adults of childbearing age, the declining number of children is making itself felt in schools.

Enrollment in the Havana School District has declined from 1,218 in 2003 to 1,089 in 2013, according to State Report Card figures.

"The bigger you are, the more you can offer because the more employees you have," Havana School Superintendent Mathew Plater said.

"When we're shrinking, each kid brings . . . dollars. The best way to turn around a school district is to grow."

But with declining enrollment and fewer dollars coming in from the state and local property taxes, the Havana schools expect to lay off employees for the first time in several years, Plater said.

He said he tentatively expects 16 to 18 employees, including as many as nine teachers, to be cut from a payroll of 150 next school year.

The Havana school officials had been using reserve money to make up for shortfalls from the state and from property taxes in previous years, Plater said. But the reserves are dwindling, he said, and "we've got to slow the bleeding down."

Meanwhile, city and county leaders are working to ensure that Havana's children will have opportunities when they grow up.

Havana lost one of its biggest employers, the Intermet Corp. foundry, back in 2004. Mason County residents also commute to Peoria for jobs with Caterpillar Inc., which has cut its payroll, Mason County Administrator Bill Blessman noted.

While farming remains a big income generator for the county, agriculture today employs fewer people because of mechanization, he said.

"Right now, the outlook is challenging, which is why the county has chosen to invest in Focus Forward," Blessman said.

Focus Forward is a new economic-development group for five central Illinois counties, including Mason.

That group is working to set up partnerships between community colleges and employers in the five-county region to offer training to people already working. Another goal is to promote the region's cultural and recreational attractions, from Peoria's ballet company to Havana's riverfront.

"We don't want to hold people here with stocks or with chains," Blessman said. "We want the area to be attractive enough to stay here."

That means focusing on more than encouraging job growth, he said: "Do we have the amenities here that highly trained people would want?"

Lisa Kernek, a former reporter with The State Journal-Register, teaches journalism at Western Illinois University. She can be reached at l-kernek@wiu.edu.

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