Year in Review: J.A. Happ

James Anthony Happ is a quiet, unassuming 27-year old budding star. Don’t mistake that tranquil demeanor for weakness; the dude is an absolute force when he is on.

Happ was relentless throughout the entire 2009 season, going 12-4 with 2.93 ERA in 166 innings, while finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting in the National League behind Florida’s Chris Coughlan. It didn’t start off as a ROY-type season for Happ out of the gate as he was passed over for Chan Ho Park for the final rotation spot. Didn’t matter to him that he was placed in the bullpen, where, he too, excelled. The lanky left-hander patiently waited his turn and in turn was finally given a chance to start on May 23 in the Bronx. Chan Ho Park had used up all of his starting chips and Happ shined against the Yankees, never looking back.

His six-inning, two run performance was indicative of just how tough Happ would be for the remainder of the ’09 season. On June 27, the baseball community finally took notice as Happ tortured the Blue Jays in Toronto, tossing a complete game shutout, while fanning four batters. Consider it the defining moment for J.A.; it was his fifth consecutive victory, a streak that would stretch two more wins and nearly one more month.

Happ followed that up on a warm, August day against Colorado with yet another heart-stopping performance. It would be his second CG-SO of the season, but this time, he struck out 10 batters over 127 pitches. However, on the same day in the minor leagues, Pedro Martinez was readying for his seat at the starters table. Pedro one-upped Happ by striking out 11 batters in a start for Double-A Reading.

Luckily for Happ, he did not lose his starting spot outright until the playoffs due to Pedro’s September injury. Still, he was used as a reliever in the playoffs, where he pitched to mixed results. Happ allowed four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings (seven appearances) and never really settled into a groove as he had as a relief pitcher early in the year.

Aside from his average showing in the postseason, from start to finish, Happ proved to the organization and the people following it, that he has the necessary tools to be a very good major league starter. The Phillies brass pushed that point when they declined to trade Happ in a deadline deal for the uber-coveted Roy Halladay. Instead, Happ stayed put, the Phillies brought in Cliff Lee, and the team once again rallied to the Fall Classic. If not for Happ and his impressive emergence as a solid middle of the rotation pitcher, the Phillies may not have secured back-t0-back NL Pennants.

GRADE: 8.4/10: Happ was outstanding, but not so much in the playoffs. Perhaps it was the back and forth between the pen and the rotation that caused a slow down in the postseason. Nevertheless, Happ will now be counted on for even bigger things in the future.

Happ deserves a 9 or better. I hope he does even better in 2010. It is great to see someone step in and excell, especially when they exceed expectations. I am really glad that he was not traded. I would not be surprised if he ended up as the #2 starter by the end of the year.

Starting the 2009 season, what did we expect Happ to do for the Phils?… Nothing.

I think we should be grading players on their expectations and actual accomplishments, not just their stats.

I think Happ deserves a 9.5/10, but I do NOT expect a repeat of 2009. If he gets through 2010 as a Phillies starter behind Halladayo, Hamels and Blantonian with a 3.50 ERA and under, I will be VERY happy.

The Houston Astros and right-hander Brett Myers have agreed to a contract pending a physical, KRIV-TV, a Fox affiliate in Houston, has reported, citing unnamed major league sources. Myers, 73-63 with a 4.40 ERA in eight seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, underwent surgery in June to repair a torn labrum in his hip. A career starter, Myers was featured in a set-up role upon returning, pitching in 10 games in September and October, including two postseason outings. He finished 2009 with a 4-3 record and 4.84 ERA in 70 2/3 innings pitched, a season after going 10-13 with a 4.55 ERA.

I think J.A. Happ is going to be a really good pitcher. In the end, he might be better than Cole Hamels. J.A. has a tremendous demeanor and a very good changeup. He’s got good control and he looks like he really knows his way around hitters. And he has another pitch that really kills. Its that high riding fastball he can throw when he’s ahead in the count. That ball explodes right into a right handers eyes. So, unlike Cole, he’s got the plate covered. The up and in fastball and the fade change up on the outside corner (to righties). To say that he pitches like Andy Petitte is obvious. He’s like his clone. If he can learn to throw a fastball with a little tail on it (in to righties, away from lefties), wow, look out I think.

Pat , did you assess Happ’s mark based on the regular season only? It sounds like you included the playoffs. Happ only started 1 game during the Division series, the remainder of his appearances were out of the bullpen.
My point is if you were to limit this grading system based on the regular season, I think Happ would deserve a higher mark.
I agree with Nick – if Happ comes up with a “Blantonian” ERA of 3.5 or so, that would be fine for a #3 or 4 starter.

Am I the only Phillies fan that doesn’t like J.A. Happ? I never saw anything from him that makes me think he will ever be a dominant pitcher. He is constantly pitching from behind with runners on base and the mystery he enjoyed of being new to the league is now gone. Hitters know him and he will get hit. Staying cool while having runners on base is great, but I can’t stop my nagging feeling that his luck will run out and fast.

I hope one day I eat my words, but I prayed he would be involved in any Halladay and we could get something for this kid while he has any value. He had a thoroughly enjoyable rookie season but I believe he’s a mediocre number 4 at best.

As for J.A Happ: He had an amazing year, and hopefully he won’t be too far behind this coming season. The guy has a lot of talent, but i’d like to see how everything balances out for him. Also Hamels should have a better year than last year, and that much I am nearly positive about.

Until I really started reviewing their salaries, I did not realize how ‘old’ the Phillies are. The only young and cheap guys worth anything are Happ and Ruiz. That means the other 20+ players are getting veteran salaries. And Happ and Ruiz are both over 25!
However most of the players are paid appropriately. If Happ becomes Andy Petitte the Phillies are going to be very please. However, if he becomes Kyle Kendrick then they will have trouble winning the division.

I looked at the Cardinals roster and they are ‘capped’ at $100M (Phillies are 40%! higher) but obviously will not have 40% more wins or revenue. They only are paying three big stars Holliday, Pujols, and Carpenter. Mid-level guys are also reasonable with Lohse, Wainright, Penny, Ludwick. Lugo is a special case. That nearly matches Blanton, Hamels, Moyer and Werth. However, Lidge, Ibanez, Rollins, Polanco and Victorino are the big differences. I just found the analysis interesting. I can see why many teams are realizing how valuable young talent is and not spending $ on middle of the road free agents.

I do not get how a few of you think Happ will not be a good #3 or #4 starter. He came up 08 for a short stint and pitched really well. Then last year despite starting in the pen, which he was not thrilled about, pitched well in relief, and then when he got the chance to start he was consistant and almost dominant. With this offense, I can see Happ winning 15 games if not more. He never loses his composure, and is a team first guy, how can you ask for anything more

@Corine and all other apologetic posters: HOF player/manager Leo Durocher, author of great baseball quotes like “Nice guys finish last” and “Show me a good loser and I’ll show you an idiot” also gave us this one “Never apologize for an error”. Skeptics and negative critics should clarify their previous postings without the spineless and hollow apology. It damages your credibilty and respect.

Relative to the price/value ratio, Happ is far more valuable than Hamels. Not even close.

My first thought about Myers being on the Astros – Oh no.. when Houston comes to town and Brett is pitching – look for the Brett we all had high hopes for, look for a 3 hit masterpiece – I hate it when x-Phils come to town!

Comparing Happ’s value and Hamels’ value is a little premature. Hamels so far has had one mediocre season (even then, he had 10 wins) in 3+, a season after his innings pitched had increased tremendously. Happ has only pitched 1+ season, and hasn’t had the huge innings increase yet. Also, Happ is actually OLDER than Hamels, so Hamels has a chance to pitch more years. While one might argue that Happ had the better 2009, one could never decide based on that alone that he’ll always be the bigger bargain. Hamels’ contract is bigger right now, but in his first few seasons he didn’t make all that much; even in 2008 he came in at under a million.

I’ll grant that Happ, so far, has been really good. But let’s see how he does with the sophomore jinx before we claim him as the greatest thing since the Apollo landing.

I remain a happ skeptic as well. As much as I appriciated his strong rookie campaign, I continue to remain a typical Philly skeptic. I hope he proves me wrong. As long as he can continue to hide the ball well hitters should still find it difficult to figure him out, that is his key to success.

Charlie killed Happ in the playoffs. Why not start him. Also why not sign Myers. We have a very poor rotation after Doc. Who knows what will happen with Hamels. He is up in the air. Happ could go the same way if teams catch on to him. Then who..Blanton and Moyer. Please. Myers could of been a guy to plug in there.

I don’t care who the fifth starter is. Both those stats are based on what 5th starters do. Is that a bad rotation? I think not. I think Cole could have more upside than my #s, but to be safe, that what I put. Problems?

Brooks: How could I give him higher than an 8.4? He wasnt Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay, who would have goten 9.5 or higher. I would say that 10/10 is probably the greatest season by a pitcher ever. So, to get an 8.4 is pretty damn good in my eyes.

Pat – I think people are confused as to whether its a straight score OR their score “relative to expectations”. Perhaps you should clear that up. Also…Scott Podsednick 1y/1.75 to the Royals? Its a world gone mad I tell ya. Thats what Ruben gotta wait for..that kinda thing.

I think Happ is the real deal. Also, I think we will be pleasantly surprised by Kyle Kendrick as the 5th starter. He seems like he wants to prove himself and showed some nice flashes of excellence last year. Always optimistic !!!!

Happ has an average curveball, decent change-up, and and a curve that needs some work. He hides the ball very well, and rarely gets rattled. If he can improve his curveball and change a little, he could be a very solid #3 pitcher. Agree with Dipsy on the starters, except I’d switch Happ and Blanton (assuming the curveball improves even a little). Blanton’s era runs @4, don’t see a reason for a drop.
I’m also a little confused on the ratings – either Lee was ranked too high, or there is far more emphasis on playoff wins. When we needed wins, Happ was there.

I think that Happ has a real good change, not a decent one. And he spots his fastball well and can really move it around. I like Blanton to step it up a little this year. He had a horrible first half last year who he would have had a real nice era.

I really dont like the phillies rotation at all. For a national league champ, too many question marks. Hamels is a questionmark, happ, blanton I dont think is anything and 5 th start volgenber or whatever his name is comeon.

Don’t get me wrong, I LIKE the rotation…it’s just that I feel a bit uneasy about what’s going to happen with Hamels, and to a lesser extent…Happ. Obviously I expect Hamels to do better than last year, but how much better can we reasonably hope for?

Then there’s Happ who had a great ’09 Season, and I expect him to have a good season…but not as good as last season. Blanton is a given to have a reliable and solid, but non-flashy season.

This has nothing to do with having Lee or not(who we’d only have had for 1 more year anyway), and everything to do with how Hamels does from here on out. And again, I expect Hamels to have a good year…but I can’t lie and say that i’m not uneasy a little anyway. How could anyone NOT feel at least a little bit uneasy right now, and they are lying if they say otherwise. Although I expect a good year out of everyone, I think there will be some uneasiness in the air until Spring Training and/or the regular season starts. That’s natural and expected after the problems we had last year, and your full of it if you aren’t the slightest bit worried.

Myers had gone downhill two straight years. Speed was down, slider not as effective. Phils rotation is automatically better with Halladay at the top, Hamels replacing Myers, Happ replacing Moyer, and Moyer or Kendrick replacing Park. There are ALWAYS concerns with a rotation, but this year’s is better than 2009’s, and better, too than at the start of 2008.

I always thought a Vogelsong was a East German car with a two cylinder, two stroke engine and particle board body panels.

I think that Happ will be the only real question mark going into the season for me. I think that Halladay will be Halladay, and hamels will rebound. Blanton will be the consistent #3, or 4.

As for Happ, his stats say he was lucky last year. His xFIP was 4.49. His FIP was 4.33. Also, he was unbelievable with runners in scoring position last year. That will be hard to sustain. His BABIP was .270 which was abnormally low for the league’s .303.

As for Happ’s pitches last year, he threw a fastball, cutter, curve, and a change. His curve had a negative pitch type value as it was -4.2

Can anyone tell me why we are talking to sheets when bedard is out there ?????? and wern’t we supposed to have a hard on for zack duke according to manuel…..A month till pitchers and catchers and bedard is a cheap option!!!!!

Happ hasn’t pitched in the majors too long, but we all know that we have something special here with this kid. If he stays healthy and stays as poised as he was last season, he might even step ahead of both Hamels and Blanton in the rotation if Hamels was to go off the deep end again (which I know he wont)

About Hamels…It’s funny how everyone forgets that he was a star 3 years straight in a row (06-07-08). The man has ONE bad year, says some dumb things in the media, now everyone wants to send him packing to wherever, for whoever. Hamels WILL bounce back this season, and between Halladay, Hamels, and Happ…Guys…Hello…Thats EASILY 50-60 wins on paper right there! Than you have BLANTON who can be electrifying most of the time. I don’t think you guys realize were witnessing something special here in Philadelphia.

Halladay, Hamels, and Happ…They should have a giveaway this season, and put their 3 heads on a dragons body on a poster, and be called ”Triple H” or ”The 3-headed Dragon. The National Leauge is already pissing in their jock straps.

A lot of the Happ skeptics forget, he was good every time called on in 2008. I don’t think he’s a question mark going into next year because he was consistent all year, basically building on his few apperances in 2008. I think we all saw how well he performed under pressure with his name being involved in every trade rumor all summer, and his second shutout at home was literally when they were making the decision on whether he’d be sent back to the pen.

I think one of the major mistakes in the postseason was underutilizing Happ. Aside from Game 3 in the NLDS, he and Blanton had no idea when or where he was pitching. I would have started him over Pedro in a few of the games. I expect he’ll be a 15-17 game winner next year. He’s proven his consistency. The difference between him and Hamels is even when he gets in a bind, he doesn’t give the other team anything, he shakes it off, and finds a waty out. I am WAY more concerned about Hamels than Happ. Hamels is thr x factor. I have hope he learned from this year, and will turn it around, but Hamels is the biggest question mark on terms of expectations for 2010.

The Spring is a fun time, hell so is now if you can keep warm.
Schwalmy, Bedard is a perennial IR. He has been in the majors for 7 seasons and has started 30 or more games 1 time. He has never pitched 200 plus innings in a single season. Good stuff, lots of potential but hurt, hurt, hurt… and looking for big money.

BTW – the starting rotation for the M’s now includes:

Lee
King Felix
Bedard

Not a bad starting 3 if Bedard can stay healthy.

Pat, I don’t suppose in reality a score of 10 would be perfection (like a 20-0 season?) more like a 20 win season with an ERA of 3 or under – keeping it real here. Based on what Happ did in his shortened season, I would think he was deserving of a 9 or better – sorry for the nitpicking but that is how this sight gets its gravy. The score of 8.4 is really damn good but, does that mean a record of say 16-12 with an ERA of 3.30 would rate the same? I think Happ did better than that. Just for fun (that is what this is), project 32 starts for Happ and based on his consistency and the record he had with 23 starts and 12 wins, his record could have come out to 16-5.

I would imagine that we are not talking to Erik Bedard because we don’t “have” the money to sign him. Even if we did, he is a bit of a weirdo and he gets hurt. Are we talking to Sheets? Good! I gotta say that I don’t believe in “periphials” or “peripherals” and “pitch values”. Lets just say that Happ’s curve is not so hot. Happ has been up here for a season and a half and been nothing but good, so lets give him the benefit until proven wrong. Did Bedard resign? I would love to see the Phils sign Sheets at 1y/3m with incentives.

I’m not really sure whether Happ has a hard curve or a soft slider. I was never a pitcher, so to be honest, I really don’t know the difference. Are they a different grip, or basically the same with a different arm speed? Either way, it seems like he has some difficulty throwing it for strikes, and doesn’t have a lot of confidence in it.

I am personally not worried at all about the rotation. Baring injury I feel that Cole will be back to ’08 form and with the run support this team can give easily win 15-18 games. Last year was a wake up call for him that he has to work at his craft and not take winning for granted. He is still young and learning. I think Jamie Moyer will help him a lot along with having Doc on board. I really do not get the Happ critics, they have the right to their opinion but I just do not see it. Being able to pitch better with runners on base is huge and he has proven he can do that. Like every year the Pen is the crap shot. There really is not many consistent relievers in the game today. I have said it before I think you give guys like Bastardo, Escolona(sp) and some of the other young guys a shot at it in April and May and if they do not pan out then look for something to trade for.
I also see Lidge coming back strong if healthy. It seems to me he is an every other year guy.

I really hope the front office doesn’t think the same way. Happ’s luck this year was completely unsustainable. Trust your eyes – he’s not really that good. Serviceable at the back end of the rotation, but to get to be a solid middle of the rotation guy he will definitely need to pull some things together.

There’s nothing I would have loved to see more than the Phillies use him in the Halladay deal to protect a Taylor or even D’Arnaud + Donald

John K can you pass me some of what you are smoking please. What would you do to fill the void in the 4 spot if you got rid of Happ in that deal. I watch him pitch all last year and the spot starts in “08. What is not sustainable, not getting flustered with men on base, working out of jams or dominating lesser offensive teams. I mean really not that good? He is going to be #3 or #4 starter depending on where you but Big Joe in the rotation. And he is going to win 12-16 games on the low end for this team. What his under 2 ERA not sustainable, ok I’ll take 3.3 ERA as my 3rd or 4th starter. What have you seen to make you think he can not pitch at this level. Do you really think this kid is going to stop working to become better? Don’t you think he is going to work harder to keep his spot in the rotation and not get sent to the bull pen in the playoffs. What about this kids makeup do you not see being a better than average pitcher in the big leagues

“Happ’s luck this year was completely unsustainable” “He’s really not that good.”

John K…

Where are you going with your argument? What makes you think he’s not that good? I would say that he’s MORE than “serviceable”. Obviously, the Blue Jays thought so as well, or else they wouldn’t have been so demanding of him this past July at the deadline.

I’m glad Ruben held tough at that time and kept him. What they wanted for Halladay in July was obscene…..and that’s why that deal didn’t happen then.

Yea I really do not see where all the Happ detractors come from, most of the people on here where head over heals about him when he was pitching last year. I guess in typical Philly fashion, you have to bitch about something

Our # 4 starter would have been Joe Blanton because Lee would have been bumped him down a slot. I think people aren’t really turned on by Happ because he’s not a “stuff” pitcher. He’s the kinda guy you watch pitch and ask yourself how he can get anybody out but he keeps doing it.

The Phillies butchered the Happ situation since day one… I don’t know if they didn’t believe he was as good as he had pitched or if they felt like he would eventually pitch his way into the pen but they never put him in a position where he could succeed. It seemed like every time they threw him out there, it was in a bad spot and Happ was successul… he was that good… despite egregious mismanagement by the coaching staff and front office.