SEARCH HAWAII TRADING

Monday, January 28, 2013

Long Yen

Reader asked...does long Yen (actually short USD/YEN) reflect as short US equities...and answer is "maybe"....as below.

Well kind of, usually USD/YEN and NZD/YEN move the same way, and the NZD
pair is my risk on risk off indicator…but it has been acting odd last few week
as currency wars get into full swing.

I am Short bonds through TLT short, and with unsanitized money printing by Big Ben, there is incentive to think that equities continue their upward climb (even though 5 RSI is amazingly "over bought" what a silly word). We could go into a Bataan Death March type of pattern, an unrelenting steady slog upward that kills shorts, and leaves no pullback for the broken shorts and bulls that hesitated....leaves them no pullback to get long on and they all stare in disbelief and missed profits as the Death March trudges on.

Long Yen could also be a very short lived position

The next step is when currency wars don’t get the balance of trade issue
done….then the world goes into competitive devaluation, which doesn’t
necessarily mean prices go down….but manufacturers may be forced to sell below
profitability (like maybe they are just covering the overhead portion of their
gross margin, and there is no profit portion of their gross margin).Even thoughprices are tight, commodities are up and so the price the consumer pay
may not see “deflation” like the deflationistas predict (Pretcher Mish guys)

Big News Week, this could keep the "parade" going if positive. This quote from ILB

Tuesday, Jan. 29th – Consumer Confidence. The December report
was ugly, with consumers' expectations for the economy falling 15 points.

Thursday Jan. 31st – Gross Domestic Product. Recent estimates of
GDP show slow growth. Of course, the government's own heavily managed CPI
inflation statistics have been used to paint a brighter growth picture.
When adjusted using the same CPI calculation employed by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics in the 1970s, as reported by ShadowStats.com, the GDP
picture is downright ugly.

Thursday Jan. 31st – Jobless Claims. Estimates regarding
the number of jobs created put the rate very close to what is needed to
offset population growth. In other words, we are treading water. The
percentage of people not employed, but not counted by bureaucrats as
"unemployed" remains very near the levels seen at the height of
the financial crisis. The problem is especially acute among young people.

Quote

TRANSLATOR

The Legal

Make Sure to read the legal at the bottom. We are not investment advisers in any way. None of this should be taken as advice.

Sign Up for BPT Membership at Breakpoint Trades

SIGN UP FOR BREAKPOINT TRADES
Please sign up through this link, I get credits, which let's me bring you more good free stuff.
And it does not cost anymore for your membership! The 6 month membership is the best deal for sure.

Solar Monitoring

Copyrighted

Material may be lifted as long as credit is given to HawaiiTrading in some indelible way.

This is not Investment Advice. We are not Investment Advisers nor do we hold any type of financial accreditation. All of your investment decisions are performed purely at your own risk.

This is not investment advice

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog. Nothing in this BLOG or referenced documents is intended to be investment advice. Each person should consult a trusted investment counselor and/or financial advisor. All investments and trading carry risk, which in the current environment can be extremely substantial, especially if you use leveraged instruments such as 2X , 3X, options, or futures.