Map of 530 Clearbrook Drive

See a Video Tour of the neighbourhood around 530 Clearbrook

Are you an Investor living in Toronto and can’t make money due to the High Prices for Real Estate in the GTA?

There are alternatives to Investing in Toronto, give Ottawa a look!

We have extremely stable employment due to the federal government being the largest single employer in the region. Plus our booming hi tech industry is another major driver of the economy resulting in very high personal incomes.

Plane, Train or Automoble, it's just 1-5 hours away

Ottawa is just 400 km east of Toronto. The average home price in Ottawa is just $430,000, which is much more affordable for Investment Properties. Ottawa is a good investment versus Toronto, with a higher ROI, or Return on Your Investment.

You can buy more houses in Ottawa

Investors can purchase almost 2 houses in Ottawa to rent out, versus just One in Toronto & the GTA. Economy of scale dilutes risk. (more properties and more renters, in case of vacancy or midnight moves)

Currently a home in Ottawa will cost you slightly over $430,000, while in Toronto it's almost $750,000. This is based on all house types.

Lot's of property types for Investors to pick

There are a bunch of options in Ottawa to suit any budget, from Condos, Townhomes, Single Family Homes or even Multi-Unit Residential buildings.

Ottawa as an Alternative to investing in GTA real estate.

If you are an Investor and think that Toronto real estate is far too expensive for investing, come and see why Ottawa is your best option.

You can call Patrick Walchuk at 613-788-2590 to chat about investing in Ottawa, or use the link below...

Please answer these questions in the form, cut-and-paste:

1. Do you prefer to invest in a condo or single family home.

2. Are you interested in investing in a multi unit residential property.

3. How soon are you prepared to visit Ottawa to look at investments.

4. Do you have a 35% down payment to obtain a positive cash flow, based on Ottawa’s lower prices.

Below we compare the sale of a 20 unit building with a 7 unit building from different neighbourhood of Ottawa

Usually we take one recent sale of a property and show you the breakdown of all the financial information to see if it made sense, but this month we are giving you 2 properties that sold recently and comparing the numbers, especially the Cap Rate, the Cash Flow and the ROI, at the end of the day.

Below is the table outlining all of the financial information for the 7 Unit building that sold in the Vanier neighbourhood.

Vanier 7 Unit Property, Sold January 2019Listed Price $1,699,900

Selling Price

$1,688,500

Scheduled Rental Income (SRI)

$129,600

Effective Rental Income (ERI)

$125,712

Total Operating Expenses (TOE)

$33,331

Net Operating Income (NOI)

$92,383

Capitalization Rate (CAP)

5.5%

Operating Expense Ratio (OER)

26.5%

Sales Price X Net Income

18.3 X

35% Downpayment

$590,975

Mortgage (@ 3.7%)

$1,097,525

Annual Debt Service (mortgage payments)

$76,596

Cash Flow

$15,787

Return on Investment (ROI)

2.7%

Below you can compare the Vanier property with this 20 unit building from the Sandy Hill neighbourhood.

Sandy Hill 20 Unit Building, Sold January 2019Listed Price $4,795,000

Selling Price

$4,250,000

Scheduled Rental Income (SRI)

$248,016

Effective Rental Income (ERI)

$240,576

Total Operating Expenses (TOE)

$77,360

Net Operating Income (NOI)

$163,216

Capitalization Rate (CAP)

3.8%

Operating Expense Ratio (OER)

32.2%

Sales Price X Net Income

26 X

35% Downpayment

$1,487,500

Mortgage (@ 5.0%)

$2,762,500

Annual Debt Service (mortgage payments)

$193,151

Cash Flow

-$29,935

Return on Investment (ROI)

-2.0%

These two neighbourhoods are right next to each other, separated by the Ottawa River. Sandy Hill can be considered a better neighbourhood and you can see that in the numbers from these two sales.

Analyzing the financials on a Fourplex in Sandy Hill that sold in December 2018

This building sold for $1,495,000, $54,000 less than the listed price. There were 3 x 3 bedroom apartments and 1 x 4 bedroom apartment. All of the units in this building pay for their own Gas, Heat and Hydro.

This building was Fire Retrofit, had 4 parking spots, was renovated and was just blocks to the river and parks as well as the University of Ottawa. It sold in 83 days.

Sandy Hill Fourplex, Sold December 2018Listed Price $1,549,000

Selling Price

$1,495,000

Scheduled Rental Income (SRI)

$118,670

Effective Rental Income (ERI)

$115,110

Total Operating Expenses (TOE)

$38,222

Net Operating Income (NOI)

$76,888

Capitalization Rate (CAP)

5.1%

Operating Expense Ratio (OER)

33%

Sales Price X Net Income

19%

35% Downpayment

$523,250

Mortgage (@ 3.7%)

$971,750

Annual Debt Service (mortgage payments)

$59,478

Cash Flow

$17,410

Return on Investment (ROI)

3.3%

This income property actually sees a positive cash flow, 3.3 return on investment and a 5.1 Cap Rate. All of these numbers look great compared to other buildings we have analyzed recently, which had low or even negative numbers.

Predictions for the Ottawa Real Estate Market in 2019

Here is where we try and predict where the real estate market will trend in 2019, we give you our opinion, followed by predictions from other trusted sources such as CMHC, Remax, CREA as well as Royal LePage. See where the market is right now by viewing this months Market Update here

Patrick’s Predictions for 2019: Strong sales and more listings

2018 should finish the year with unit sales up 3.2 %. The average sold price will be about $408,000 for an increase of 3.8 % over last year.

I see 2019 being similar to this year with units up about 4% and prices will increase 4% to 5%. I believe inventory levels will increase slightly over 2018, freeing up more homes for the pent up buying demand.

We are looking at some additional employment in the east end with Amazon adding about 600 albeit lower paying jobs. Ford has announced about 300 new jobs to the Kanata tech sector which are primarily going to be higher paying engineering positions.

Federal government employment looks solid for 2019 as we will be in an election year and the Liberals will not cut federal jobs in vote rich urban Ottawa. Also, the feds have shown no desire to cut reckless spending, tackle the deficit and national debt, so cutting federal employee positions is not on the table.

The wild card begins to show it’s face toward the end of 2019 or early 2020. Will the recession start then? Yes, it is coming. Trump has unnecessarily thrown gasoline onto an already hot USA economy. Reduced income (taxes) and record setting debt will bring an ugly end to their party. It will burn out and the ashes will leave lost jobs and less demand for Canadian products and resources.

With Canadian low interest rates, high debt, increasing deficits, we will have a reduced number of tools to fight the recession, as we did in 2009. Remember, that to was triggered by the American subprime mortgage fiasco. Otherwise Ottawa should see its traditional slow steady increase for 2019.

Canadian Real Estate Association Predictions

ReMax & Royal LePage Predictions

In their annual home sale price reports, Royal LePage is forecasting the capital will see a 2.5 per cent increase to the median home sale prices while Re/Max is predicting a 4 per cent jump in sale prices.

Canadian Mortgage & Housing Corporation CMHC Predictions

Ottawa-Gatineau is one of the few markets in Canada in which housing resale volumes and prices have risen continuously over the past three years, the agency is predicting that trend to continue into 2020.

Resales are expected to end up between 17,500 and 19,200 units. Prices are anticipated to range between $417,000 and $433,000.

For 2020, CMHC is predicting resales in the range of 17,900 and 20,000 units. The resale price range for 2020 is expected to be between $431,000 and $453,000.

Citing Ottawa-Gatineau’s decades-low unemployment rate and its high average income bolstered by an abundance of federal government and tech workers, CMHC says the region’s residential real estate market is primed for healthy growth for the next few years.

“Ottawa has outperformed because of a healthy economy and the city’s relative affordability,” the report says. “Employment, especially full-time job creation, as well as earnings growth, have been robust since 2016 and have supported home ownership demand despite rising prices.

The agency also says a significant price gap between new and resold homes makes the region’s resale market attractive, especially to first-time buyers, with more affordable options such as row homes and condos experiencing the strongest sales growth.

But CMHC also warns that rising interest rates and government cutbacks in light of rising federal deficits could dampen its robust growth forecasts.

This Triplex sold in November, was in a very good location and it will be owner-occupied.

This building sold pretty quick, and for $19,900 less than the asking price. It was fire retrofit and it had Two 1 bedrooms and One 1 bedroom apartment.

West CentretownTriplex, Sold November 2018Listed Price $849,900

Selling Price

$830,000

Scheduled Rental Income (SRI)

$50,340

Effective Rental Income (ERI)

$48,326

Total Operating Expenses (TOE)

$18,166

Net Operating Income (NOI)

$30,160

Capitalization Rate (CAP)

3.6%

Operating Expense Ratio (OER)

38%

Sales Price X Net Income

28%

35% Downpayment

$291,550

Mortgage (@ 3.5%)

$541,450

Annual Debt Service (mortgage payments)

$32,784

Cash Flow

$-2,624

Return on Investment (ROI)

-1%

This property is a bit different from others we have looked at recently, as the buyer will be living in One of the apartments, usually we look at buildings that are purely as an income investment.

So, when we see that this building has a negative cash-flow as well as the ROI of -1%, it might not be as bad as it first appears. This smart buyer will be living in a very nice apartment, in a great neighbourhood and near the new LRT line.

Usually we profile One multi-Family building that sold, this month we are taking a look at 4 properties, all from Vanier

The table below gives you all of the financial information from a couple of 6-Plex's as well as a 9 unit and a 10 unit Multi-Family building. We recently used these to do a CMA for a client, so we may as well show you how well these performed.

We always use a 35% downpayment, and for the examples below we are using a commercial mortgage rate of 5.6% as all were more that 5 apartments.

From the examples above, you can see that only one building provided a positive cash-flow and two of the properties returned negative returns-on-investment.

Two buildings sold for under their asking price, one sold for full asking price and the final one sold for over $20,000 more than it was listed for. CAP Rates for all of them were above 4%.

This article covers a couple of recent changes that will affect owners and purchasers of income properties.

As you are probably aware, the province of Ontario has recently mandated the use of their leases for all landlords and tenants. Failure to provide the lease, if requested by a tenant, will result in you having to provide one month free rent. You can access the lease in the link below.

Additionally, I have been asked if the lease specifically addresses cannabis. The Ontario Real Estate Association has just provided us with clauses that a landlord can add to a lease, regarding the growing and use of weed in your building.

See the 2 New Clauses below:

The first is in regards to dealing/harvesting:

"The Tenant and any occupants of the premises and, including without limitation, any visitors, guests and business invitees shall not sell, distribute, cultivate, propagate or harvest any cannabis plants within the meaning of the Cannabis Act, S.C. 2018 c. 16 and the Cannabis Act, 2017, S.O. 2017, c. 26 as amended from time to time, anywhere in or upon the premises rented by the Tenant, the building where Tenant's premises are located or in any of the common areas or adjoining grounds of such building."

The second is regarding smoking:

"The Tenant and any occupants of the premises and, including without limitation, any visitors, guests and business invitees shall not smoke anywhere in or upon the premises rented by the Tenant, the building where Tenant's premises are located or in any of the common areas or adjoining grounds of such building, except for the designated smoking area(s) noted below:

For purposes of this provision, the term "smoke" or "smoking" means to inhale, exhale, burn or have control over a lighted cigarette, lighted cannabis cigarette, cigar, pipe, hookah pipe or other lighted smoking implement designed to burn tobacco or any other substance, including without limitation, cannabis as defined in the Cannabis Act, SC 2018 c16 as amended from time to time for the purpose of inhaling or tasting of its emission. Contravention of this provision shall be deemed to be a material breach of the lease. "

If you're looking to buy any type if Investment Property in the area, work with an Agent who knows all the rules!

Tri-Plex Property sold in September, in Overbrook

This property is a Triplex that was sold in September, it was listed at $769,900 and sold for $760,000 in just 26 days. This building was made up of a 1 bedroom apartment and Two 2 Bedroom Apartments, both of the 2 bedrooms were vacant at the time of sale. This property was Fire Retrofitted.

Below is the table where you can see all of the numbers, and at the bottom we give you the Return on Investment that the buyer will get based on a 35% down-payment.

When we look at the numbers, this building actually had a positive cash flow with 35% down, using a mortgage rate of 3.5%. At the end of the day, this buyer saw a Cap Rate of 4.6%, a cash flow of $5,497 and a Return On Investment of 2%.

This Six Unit Income Property sold in August, in Centretown

Have a look at the table below for all of the financial info on this 6-Plex from Centretown or watch the video where Pat will go through all of the numbers and let you know if they are good or bad.

Below is the table where you can see all of the numbers, and at the bottom we give you this buildings Return on Investment as well as the cash flow based on Two different mortgage rates.

Centretown 6 Unit Building, Sold August 2018Listed Price $1,295,000

Selling Price

$1,240,000

Scheduled Rental Income (SRI)

$90,220

Effective Rental Income (ERI)

$86,611

Total Operating Expenses (TOE)

$31,089

Net Operating Income (NOI)

$55,522

Capitalization Rate (CAP)

4.5%

Operating Expense Ratio (OER)

36%

Sales Price X Net Income

22%

35% Downpayment

$434,000

Mortgage (@ 5.5%)

$806,000

Annual Debt Service (mortgage payments)

$59,037

Cash Flow

-$3,515

Return on Investment (ROI)

-0.8%

Looking at the numbers based on a rate of 5.5%, which is common for larger income properties, this buyer would be taking a loss of $3500 per year, which is a -0.8% return on his initial investment of $434,000.

If this buyer could shop around and find a mortgage at 3,5%, which you can get on smaller buildings and some lenders will do this on larger buildings, this would change the whole scenario. The return on investment goes up to 1.7% and the buyer makes $7200 per year.