“In his London campaigns Boris undeniably attracted voters who usually support other parties. As our research shows, this would be less likely to work in a general election. Otherwise Labour and Lib Dem supporting voters backed Boris as Mayor on a personal mandate and a personal manifesto; for many, the fact that he was a Tory was incidental. Asking them to vote for a Conservative government, inhabited by the Conservative Party and implementing Conservative policies but with Boris at the helm, would be a rather different proposition. The uncommitted and uninterested, meanwhile, would give him a hearing, but Boris alone would not be a good enough reason for them to vote Tory.” – Lord Ashcroft

I’ve not had chance overnight to go through the 100+ pages of data in the full report but it does appear that the Ashcroft conclusion is correct.

The question is what this set of comprehensive research is going to do to the Mayor’s chances of becoming Cameron’s successor. Overall it is not the boost that many Boris supporters might have been hoping for. In any case I’ve always felt that the Tories are not going to replace one ex-Etonian ex-Bullingdon Club member with another one.