posted at 6:26 pm on March 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

I wish I could take credit for that phrase but it belongs to Joseph Curl. We’re all very, very tired of this process, I know, but look on the “bright” side — if Romney rolls, this may well be the last night of election returns you need to follow until November. Yay, Mitt?

There are endless preview posts out there worth recommending but I’ll stick with two rather than inundate you. First, Guy Benson has a useful at-a-glance summary of which candidates are favored where, punctuated by the jump-ball states of Ohio and Tennessee. Whoever overperforms in those two will control the narrative tomorrow; if Romney wins both he’ll be touted as the de facto nominee, especially having now proved that he can win in the south. Second, refer to the charts in Nate Silver’s post for numerical benchmarks on how each candidate’s expected to do given current polling. Romney’s got a real shot at winning a majority of delegates tonight while Newt, because of his dominance in Georgia, could end up taking more delegates overall than Santorum. Any sharp deviations from those expectations may signal a new surge for one of them tomorrow or may even end a campaign. (If Gingrich somehow lost Georgia, which is unlikely in the extreme, he’s finished by his own admission.) As it is, 65 percent of Republican likely voters expect Romney will be the nominee compared to just 54 percent last week. The higher that number goes, the harder it is for Santorum and Gingrich to animate the base to stop him. In fact, no matter how Mitt does tonight, his campaign’s got a handy talking point for tomorrow: Realistically, it’s already too late for anyone else to win the nomination.

The bottom line here is that Romney has enough of a delegate advantage right now and especially coming out of today’s contests that it is very unlikely that anyone will catch him, much less catch him and get to 1144. The latter seems particularly far-fetched given the above scenarios. And that is a problem in this race. Well, a problem for Gingrich and Santorum anyway. If all either of them can take to voters is an argument that all they can do is prevent Romney from getting to 1144, then neither has a winning strategy. That sort of strategy has a half life; one that will grow less effective as, in this case, Romney approaches 1144. Complicating this scenario even further for Gingrich and Santorum is the fact that if neither can get to 1144 or even close to it, neither is all that likely to be the candidate to emerge as the nominee at any — unlikely though it may be — contested convention.

These contests today may not be decisive in terms of settling the nomination, but they very much represent a mental hurdle in this race. That Santorum and Gingrich cannot get to 1144 without vastly over-performing in the remaining contests (relative to how well they have done in the contests thus far) ushers in a new phase in the race.

The first polls close tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Virginia, Vermont, and Georgia — all three of which are likely to be called promptly at the top of the hour (the first two for Romney and the third for Newt). Things get interesting at 7:30, when Ohio starts to roll in, and then again at 8 when Tennessee starts counting. Here’s your handy Google Elections page to follow it all; lots of updates coming below, needless to say. While we wait, via Greg Hengler, here’s The One wishing Romney well at today’s presser. He seems pretty excited to face him. I wonder why.

The Republican nomination battle is rallying Democrats behind Barack Obama. Currently, 49% of Democrats say that as they learn more about the GOP candidates, their impression of Obama is getting better. Just 36% of Democrats expressed this view in December, before the Republican primaries began.

In contrast, there has been virtually no change in Republicans’ views of the GOP field during this period. Just 26% of Republicans say their impression of the GOP field has improved as they have learned more about the candidates. That is largely unchanged from December (30%).

Among indies, 10 percent say their views of the field has improved as the race has worn on — compared to 28 percent who say they’ve gotten worse. (In fairness, the numbers were nearly identical in December.)

Update: Romney tormentor Andrew Kaczynski of BuzzFeed digs up yet another example of Mitt pushing RomneyCare as a model for national health care, this time in a speech to House Republicans in 2009:

We should be first to propose a Republican plan to bring health insurance to all Americans, one based on market dynamics, free choice, and personal responsibility. I think what we did in Massachusetts is a good model to start from, but whatever direction we take, let’s not simply react to what the Democrats do. Their own plan would undoubtedly create a vast new system of costly entitlements and bureaucratic dictates, burdening the people and threatening the economy. Americans will be looking for a better alternative. Let’s give it to them.

Santorum went after Romney hard on Laura Ingraham’s show today for his dishonesty about using RomneyCare as a model, saying, “we are going to give away the most important issue in this election.” B-b-b-but, electability!

And since we’re rapidly approaching the moment when criticizing Romney will be treated as high treason on the right, go ahead and read this excellent Dan McLaughlin piece at Red State analyzing Mitt as a salesman for conservative policies while you still can. The bottom line: He’s not going to win any converts. If the GOP takes back the White House, it’ll be because Obama somehow blew it, not because Romney talked centrists into embracing moving right.

Update: It’s 7 p.m. and all’s well for Newt. He’s won Georgia. A mild surprise in Virginia and Vermont, though — Fox News says they’re both too close to call. Remember, only Ron Paul was on the Virginia ballot with Romney; right now Fox says he’s running a “strong second.” Hmmmm. Revisit this old post from January speculating that Paul would do much better head to head against Romney, if only as a protest vote against his inevitability, than people expected. Needless to say, if he shocked the world by knocking off Mitt in a key swing state like VA, it would shatter Romney’s narrative tomorrow about Republicans coming around to him as nominee.

Update: A splash of cold water from Dave Weigel: Apparently, Virginia exit polls show Romney winning … 63/37. Is that possible? Surely the networks wouldn’t say that race is too close to call.

Update: So much for “too close to call.” At 7:18, Fox and NBC both call Virginia for Romney. I’m curious to see the final margin.

Update: CNN.com now has links posted on its front page to exit polls from Virginia, Georgia, Vermont — and Ohio. In Ohio, Romney and Santorum are dead even at 36 percent among men but Mitt wins women by three points. Not sure how that adds up to the four-point win that CNN is projecting (40/36), but there you go. The killer data bite:

This one’s fascinating too:

You would think older voters might gravitate to the more socially conservative Santorum, but nope. Unsurprisingly, electability was the most important quality to a plurality of voters (42 percent) and Romney wins that 53/27. On the question of who’s the true conservative, Santorum wins 50/13.

Update: It’s 8 p.m. and two more races are promptly called, Massachusetts for Romney and, surprisingly, Oklahoma for Santorum. Santorum was supposed to win there but it wasn’t a mortal lock. Stand by for exit polls.

Update: And here’s the Oklahoma exit poll now. Newt and Mitt each took roughly 25 percent of men and women and Santorum cleaned up with the rest. It’s worth clicking through and scrolling down to see how remarkably consistent he was across all sorts of demographics. In Ohio, he and Romney predictably split the vote among those without and with college degrees, but in Oklahoma, Santorum won both groups easily. The two notable areas in which Romney beat him are among those who said a candidate’s religious beliefs matter not much or not at all and, of course, on electability. White evangelicals made up 72 percent of the electorate; Santorum beat Romney 41/24 among them.

Update: Big news for Santorum given the grimness of those Ohio numbers: He’s on track to win Tennessee by four or five points according to their exit poll. Again he wins both college grads and non-grads, and again he crushes Romney among the heavy “white evangelical” majority (73 percent) of the electorate. Interesting:

As usual, Romney’s the runaway winner on electability and Santorum’s the runaway winner on who’s the true conservative.

Update: The Examiner’s Mark Tapscott flags this tasty tidbit from the Massachusetts exit poll. Yes, granted, Romney is cruising, but note the results in the first column here:

Update: Assuming all the exit polls hold, what’s Newt’s argument for going forward with his campaign? He won South Carolina six weeks ago and tonight he won his home state, but he lost Florida badly and now, apparently, he’s set to lose Tennessee too. Santorum at least has appeal beyond a single region: He’s won in the midwest, he’s poised to win in the south, and thanks to Oklahoma, he’s got a win in the gateway to the southwest too. He won’t win the nomination but as a Not Romney he’s got wider reach than Gingrich seems to have.

Update: At 8:35 ET, NBC calls Tennessee for Santorum. Big win. And given how close the exits are in Ohio, he’s still got a shot there too.

Update: The mood of primary voters in one line, per this depressing WSJ piece: “We don’t have great choices, but it’s anyone but Obama for me.”

Update:Philip Klein looks at Romney’s take among evangelical voters tonight and finds … it ain’t good:

OHIO: Santorum 47%, Romney 31%

TENNESSEE: Santorum 40%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 24%

OKLAHOMA: Santorum 41%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 24%

Says Klein, “The bottom line: evangelicals are still soft on Romney, and where they make up a critical mass of the electorate, he loses.” Fair enough, but the south is a cinch to stay red no matter who the nominee is against O. Then again, when you put it this way, is does seem absurd, doesn’t it?

Update: Ohio’s the cliffhanger of the evening so let’s start paying attention. With a little more than 11 percent in, it’s Santorum who leads by nearly 2,000 votes.

Update: Santorum’s lead is now nearly 5,000 votes with nearly 14 percent in, but use Google’s election map and zoom in on the state to see the district-by-district voting. The urban areas like Cleveland and Cincinnati where Romney is typically strong have barely started reporting yet. He’ll pile up votes there once they start coming in.

This is shaping up as a scary night for those who think that Mitt Romney is the only conceivable Republican nominee in 2012. The Republican Party does not agree. Not winning Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma … that’s troubling. There’s still no path for anybody else to the Republican nomination. But ouch, ouch, ouch, what a bumpy path for the guy it’s going to have to be.

I can give him a pass on Georgia because it’s Newt’s home state but Tennessee would have been a huge narrative-builder for Romney as proof that he can win in the south. (The real south, not Florida.) As it is, it’s just one reminder after another that deep red states don’t trust him.

Update: More than 26 percent reporting in Ohio now and Santorum leads by 13,000 votes. And yet … still no numbers from the cities. There’s going to be a big swing towards Romney once they come in. Only question is how big.

Update: Virginia is nearly entirely in now and, with 99.8 percent reporting, Ron Paul’s managed to take 40.6 percent from the presumptive nominee. (In my post in January, I said, “Wouldn’t surprise me at all if the margin is closer to 10-15 points than 30.”)

Update:Ben Domenech: “If you are struggling to beat *Rick Santorum* in Ohio, you are not a strong campaign.”

Update: Shortly after 10 p.m. ET, there’s been a surge in returns from Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is located. With 40.8 percent reporting, Romney leads Santorum there 47/31, a margin of 7,000 votes. That’s a lot, but statewide Santorum still leads by more than 10,000; in fact, as of 20 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave him a 60-70 percent chance of holding on to win. That seems overly optimistic to me given that Hamilton County, which contains Cincinnati, has barely started reporting yet.

Update: And there’s another state for Santorum: With more than 50 percent reporting, CNN calls North Dakota for him. Go look at the Google Elections map. Middle America is getting purpler with each primary.

Update: More than 65 percent reporting now in Ohio and Santorum’s 15,000-vote lead is steady. Lots of Cuyahoga County is still out but Hamilton County is nearly 50 percent in and his lead there is only 4,000 votes. Is he really going to lose both of the jump-ball states on what was supposed to be coronation night?

John Fund wonders how a guy whose campaign is so well-armed can fare this badly:

He lost Oklahoma to Rick Santorum, despite the endorsement of the state’s most popular politician — populist U.S. senator Tom Coburn.

He won Virginia, where his only opponent was Ron Paul, by only 59 percent to 41 percent. He lost significant cities ranging from upper-crust Charlottesville to working-class Lynchburg.

Late-reporting urban areas may still give Romney a win in Ohio, but it is striking that he is struggling so much in a state where he carpet-bombed Rick Santorum the way he did. And in Ohio — unlike Michigan — there was no semi-organized effort among Democrats to embarrass him by casting votes for Santorum. Romney won among those voters who saw electability in November as their prime concern; his problem was that many voters had other priorities. Evangelicals continued to resist him, as did many blue-collar workers and the most conservative of voters.

Romney should consider himself very, very lucky that Santorum couldn’t organize well enough to get on the ballot in Virginia. If he had beaten Romney there too — and that’s entirely possible given that he would have swept up Paul’s protest vote plus some reluctant Paul-hating Romney voters — the headlines tomorrow about Mitt dropping not one but two crucial swing states would have been disastrous.

Update: Another chunk of Hamilton County just came back and put a dent in Santorum’s lead. He’s down to 7,000 votes statewide with still more than half of Cuyahoga to come.

Update: And just like that, Santorum’s lead is down to 2,000 votes. 77 percent of precincts have reported but still nothing new from Cuyahoga. Romney suddenly looks like he’s in good shape to win. And if Santorum does hold on, he might owe it to … Democrats:

According to exit polls, Democrats constituted 5 percent of the Ohio primary electorate, and 45 percent of them voted for Mr. Santorum. Just 25 percent voted for Mitt Romney.

That translates roughly into a 1 or 2 percentage point bump for Mr. Santorum.

Update: Comeback complete. According to CNN’s ticker, with 86 percent in, Romney now leads by less than 2,000 votes. Another chunk of Cuyahoga county came back and propelled him to the top. And 40 percent of the precincts there still have yet to report.

Update: More good news for Romney: NBC just projected that he’ll win the Idaho caucuses. 32 more delegates.

Update: With 88 percent in, Romney now leads by 5,000 votes. Scroll through CNN’s table of Ohio counties and you’ll see that the only ones where any significant number of votes are still to come in are Romney counties, capped of course by Cuyahoga. Realistically, there’s no way for Santorum to come back. I’d be surprised if we don’t get a call from the networks soon.

Update: I didn’t see it but Andrew Kaczynski says Erick Erickson acknowledged on CNN a few minutes ago that Romney will be the nominee.

Update: It’s a quarter to midnight on the east coast and there’s still no call in Ohio, but like I said above, it’s a done deal. It’s amusing as a political junkie to watch a few thousand votes in a few counties reshape an entire national narrative. Had Mitt dropped this state and Tennessee and Oklahoma, I thought we’d finally see the long-promised round of “panicked GOP establishment looks to replace Romney with white knight” stories that were on tap in case he lost Michigan to Santorum. As it is, there’ll be plenty of well deserved doomsaying tomorrow about Romney struggling to beat a bare-bones operation like Team Sweater Vest in a key battleground state despite a huge financial advantage, but it’ll all be tempered by the fact that (a) Romney did in fact win and (b) he continues to pile up delegates, to the point where Gingrich and Santorum are fighting on to no realistic end except possibly to deny him an outright majority, which won’t make much of a difference at the convention anyway. (Caveat: Team Santorum tells NBC that they’re going to start pressuring Newt to drop out, which is the last best hope of keeping things interesting.) Regardless of what happens in Ohio, though, the fundamentals of the race are clear enough: An awful lot of Republicans, especially in the south, clearly have no confidence in Romney, and Team Mitt just as clearly is unperturbed by the fact. All they need to do is get to 1,144 — if the only way is to carpet-bomb the opposition until they all seem as ideologically suspect as Romney is, so be it — and then the incantation of “Anybody but Obama” will work its magic to guarantee turnout in November. It’s a brute test of wills with conservatives and they’re winning. Barely, but still. In its own way, it’s really impressive.

Update: And there you go. At 12:33 ET, CNN finally calls Ohio for Romney.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

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Neither one has a ghost of a chance. They both should take one for the team, do the honorable thing, and work to see that Mitt takes out PBHO. For the good of our nation, that is their patriotic duty at this point.

As for the term bigot, you call Santorum one but you dont call Romney one even though the LDS teachings are about the same. Bigot is about someones held beliefs, not some perceived effort to act on them. If your going to call Santorum one then be honest and call Romney one also.

Sultanofsham on March 7, 2012 at 4:21 AM

hehehe…I’ve never seen someone be so wrong with such utter certainty. Brava.

I am so proud to be an American! It’s wonderful to see how we the people and the grassroots can trump (pardon the pun) big money and established political hacks. It’s worth it to see Karl Rove and Dick Morris sweat and Donald Trump go into coniption fits because their boy and his money ain’t doing all that great against underfunded and supposed not very well organized campaigns. Even in a rigged state like Virginia, Ron Paul came very close in what should have been a wash out for Romney. ABC News is not calling Ohio yet because there are still 40,000 votes to be counted and there could be another Iowa surprise. But you can be sure the Romney goons and the republican elites are throwing money around and cooking the books as they did in Michigan and Virginia. The American people, however, are not falling for it and saying, “not so fast…” Very proud to be an American. Go Rick!!!

What I love is this head in the sand, he’s the only one who can beat Obama drum beat. I think we’re beginning to see that that may not be the case exactly anymore. Plus, it’s as one pundit pointed out: Romney doesn’t “win” – he causes his opposition to lose by his negative campaigning. He offers zilch for us to vote for. Oh, his experience as a business man??? He’s a corporatist who’s made a lot of money for himself, but some of his business dealings haven’t been all that successful after all from what’s being reported. Kinda like his friend the Donald there. If that’s supposed to be his crowning achievement, then we’re screwed in the general.

Thanks! I was just wondering what the current counts were, but I didn’t want to wonder it aloud for fear people would think I was too lazy to look it up myself! (I am).

Night Owl on March 7, 2012 at 7:40 AM

People kept asking last night why is Gingrich coming in second after Romney on the boob tube graphics, in the delegate count etc..because their are differences in the kind of delegates that Santorum has picked up there are bound and non bound delegates. The primary is moving to the southern primary states next – not Santorum country.

Not only the posters on HotAir. Some right wing pundits like John Fund, Matthew Dowd continue to try to sell the meme that there is still a horse race by opining that the winning margin in Ohio is small.They did not bring up that Santorum was up by 18 points 12 days ago, and his vote count was padded by Democrat attempt at mischief. That was almost a 20 points swing, and Romney’s winning margins elsewhere were substantial, and the losing margin in OK was only 5%.

Dr Evil on March 7, 2012 at 7:30 AM

Your numbers are completely off. Look at both Real Clear Politics and Google Election data: Santorum beat Newt both in delegate counts and popular votes.

Let me get this straight. Romney wins 6 of 10 states yesterday, including Ohio, and over 55% of the delegates and HA spin meisters are saying that it was a bad night for him!?
NuclearPhysicist on March 7, 2012 at 6:47 AM

Especially when you consider the Super Tuesday brass ring, Ohio, was considered out of reach for Romney not very long ago yet he won it in a come from behind victory.

As for the term bigot,[…] If your going to call Santorum one then be honest and call call Romney one also.

Sultanofsham on March 7, 2012 at 4:21 AM

Romney does not want to impose his religion on others, as Santorum does. Romney did not say the things (see below) that Santorum said. Romney did not, as Santorum did, say that he wanted to puke when he heard JFK, our first Catholic president, talk about the importance of not applying religious tenets to governing. Romney did not try to force public school science classes to teach intelligent design, as Santorum did. And, finally, Romney did not express support for and defend bans on private, consensual homosexuality activity between adults, AS SANTORUM DID. Rick “Bedroom Policeman” Santorum and his wife apparently believe they have God’s personal endorsement.

The sanctimonious bigot Rick Santorum is Obama’s dream candidate because Santorum would ensure an Obama landslide victory. The bigot Rick Santorum holds and has held extreme social positions that would be poison in a general election. Santorum is known for his whiney, judgemental attitude and extreme social positions, and not much else. Rick Santorum wouldn’t be able to win 4 or 5 states in a general election.

A Vote for Rick Santorum in the Primary = A Vote for Barack Obama’s Reelection

In the interest of voter education (about a topic related to this post), I’ve included below just a small sampling of revealing quotes from the unelectable Rick Santorum:

“If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does.”

“One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country. It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. [Sex] is supposed to be within marriage. It’s supposed to be for purposes that are yes, conjugal…but also procreative. That’s the perfect way that a sexual union should happen…This is special and it needs to be seen as special.”

-Rick Santorum

“The state has a right to do that, I have never questioned that the state has a right to do that. It is not a constitutional right, the state has the right to pass whatever statutes they have.”

-Anti-birth control Rick Santorum, happily asserting that states can ban birth control

“The idea is that the state doesn’t have rights to limit individuals’ wants and passions. I disagree with that. I think we absolutely have rights because there are consequences to letting people live out whatever wants or passions they desire.”

-Rick Santorum

Santorum Quote:

“This idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do,” Santorum complained to NPR in 2006, “that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom, we shouldn’t get involved in cultural issues … that is not how traditional conservatives view the world.”

It’s gonna be a tough March for Mittens from now on with the states remaining.

Lord of the Wings on March 7, 2012 at 8:13 AM

Romney will lose the vote popular count in the upcoming Southern State primaries, but will continue to increase the delegate counts because of proportional award of delegates. Look at OK from yesterday: Santorum won by 5% of the votes, and got 14 delegates vs Romney’s 13.

So Mitt Romney inches ahead. But has the nomination process hurt him so badly that he cannot win in November? Maybe not. True, we’ve seen stories about his stumbles, such as his cringe-worthy efforts to identify with working-class Americans. But the contest did not create his (Romney’s) flaws: It merely revealed them. If they hadn’t come out in the primaries, they would have come out in the general-election campaign.

And although intraparty sniping scratched his image, it involved information that was already available to Democratic opposition researchers. So Gingrich and Santorum didn’t do the Democrats’ work for them: Rather, they used up some of their best attack material.

Four years ago, Democrats worried about the bitterness of the Obama-Clinton. They had some reason. “The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November’s election,” Gallup reported. “A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.” But it didn’t happen, in part because issues such as Reverend Wright had become old news by autumn.

I know. Apologies for making the mistake. Howabout this: He wants people to be thrown in jail if they don’t think they should be arrested for having gay sex. Its a stupid quibble: Santorum wants to make gay sex punishable by law.

Calling Santorum a bigot while not calling Romney one. Doesnt have anything to do making anything into an issue. Not that hard to grasp.

So Romney has given interviews in which he supports the criminalisation of gay sex? Oh, do tell….

b) Which of my persnal oxen are being gored here?

See I thought you were being trying to be obtuse. You claim basic principles of individual liberty for homosexual sex but have no problem when those other things I had listed are outlawed. Your personal ox isnt being gored see so you dont have a problem with the others. Kind of a individual liberty for me but none for thee thing. Same kinda logic that has Stany being a bigot and Romney not.

Ummmm……I think you should go back and read the post. Firstly, none of my oxen are being gored: I’m not gay. Secondly, the state has valid public justification for regulating domestic arrangements such as polyandry, polygyny, child marriage etc. These have nothing to do with what sort of sex act is carried out.

As I said you need to read the link you posted cause its not about homosexual sex . You can change offending words to drugs or something else and its still the same point. Maybe you should change those words cause it seems to have blinded you to the point.

LOL! The twit starts dribbling about bestiality, for pity’s sake. Yes, goat humping and gay sex are ERODING OUR REPUBLIC!And you think that’s electable? It’s silly, and that degree of whacko you have to ask what motivates it.

God I love seeing the sweatervest fan start to cry now that they know he’s doomed. “He’s cooking the books” (except Romney isn’t the one courting democrat support), “No one will vote for him” (he has a million plus cushion of votes), “Turnout is down” (it was up in Ohio from 08). Sad.

The Santorum quotes are all readily available online. You can do Google searches for them all. Don’t think for a second that this won’t all be used 24/7 in a general election. If you thought that the country learned quickly about Sarah Palin’s pregnant teenage daughter very rapidly and before they learned much else about Palin, just wait till you see how certain interest groups go into overdrive with great ferocity to tear Santorum apart. Santorum will be the bigoted, hyper religious guy who hates gays and wanted to ban homosexuality.

A Vote for Rick Santorum in the Primary = A Vote for Barack Obama’s Reelection

Rick Santorum is even less electable than Newt Gingrich, who, while having a controversial past, has still never taken the kinds of toxic, nutball positions or said the kinds of things that the bigot Rick Santorum has.

It’s gonna be a tough March for Mittens from now on with the states remaining. Can’t believe Santorum nearly beat him in Ohio despite being outspent 12-1.

Lord of the Wings on March 7, 2012 at 8:13 AM

What’s so funny about your logic is that Santorum is getting a lot of free press just by the fact that he’s running against Romney, who apparently has all the money that Republican’s are donating.

Romney outspending Santorum isn’t the “story”, it’s that Romney is overcoming the anti Mormon bigotry of the evangelical vote and the continued attacks against his conservative credentials. It’s also a function of people’s innate desire to not be painted into a corner and be told what is going to happen.

While it appears Romney is the most capable, prepared and best candidate out there to beat Obama, the inevitability argument is a counter productive one in the sense that it causes people to bow their backs and react negatively against arguments like this.

Since Santorum is the last Not Romney candidate standing he is the defacto recipient of the anti mormon bigotry that is presenting itself in the election results we see more and more of every day.

What’s so funny about all this anti Mormon bigotry is that Mormons are by and large better Christians than Christians themselves are.

I’ve lived in Utah, and Mormons are some of the most friendly people I’ve ever come to know. They are some of the nicest and most genial people on the planet and Romney is a great guy.

Bluegill, you are one of the reasons I barely post in HotAir anymore. You and the other militant anti-Conservatives are driving out most of the old guard. AP has allowed one of the few Conservative sites to slide off a cliff.

Yeah, Santorum tends to win states that do not matter. At the time they dole out delegates they might see Mitt further ahead and give them to him.

antisense on March 7, 2012 at 8:50 AM

It’s all about “Optics” How much money does Santorum have left? They are headed to the southern states next. According to Gingrich this is when the bottom falls out of Santorum’s campaign. I heard that Mitt will be spending something like 3 million in each of the above states on advertisement. I doubt that Santorum or Gingrich have the kind of money to counter Romney’s strategy. I thought that Illinois was in the mix for March? It’s expected that Romney would do well in Illinois.

In the interest of the party and the country, I think it is time for us to unite and focus all our energy on Barack Obama. I want to see the in-fighting come to an end. Rick Santorum needs to drop out.

…you are one of the reasons I barely post in HotAir anymore. You and the other militant anti-Conservatives are driving out most of the old guard. AP has allowed one of the few Conservative sites to slide off a cliff.

dominigan on March 7, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Unless of course you’re a liberal who thinks everything you say should be believed just because you say it.

Hmm, maybe that’s why you rely on gawker for your “facts”.

“War”

Flora Duh on March 7, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Dominigan, as distasteful and obnoxious as some of the posters are, we need you to keep posting. Flora Duh has it right. This is “War.”

Romney wins 6 of 11 in a 4 man race including coming from behind to take Ohio and Michigan and has now taken 11 of the past 16 contests….

Impressive results but you would never know it from the reporting put forth by either the MSM or Conservative media.

The MSM has been trying it’s best to sandbag Romney, which is expected, but I never would have thought that there would be such a concerted effort to destroy a Republican candidate by the supposed alternative Conservative press. Flip the name Romney with Santorum or Gingrich and the reporting around here would be far different despite the big spending weaknesses and other baggage displayed by the latter two and the fact they were beat handily in the debates in their one on one moments against Romney.

The time has come to consolidate around Romney instead of trying to tear him down, that’s for sure. The fact that some of the rhetoric around here could have a CNN or MSNBC label on it should be a red flag for those espousing it.

What would have made it a big night for him? If he had won a Southern state would he all of a sudden been unstoppable?

I noticed that last night, too. Ohio’s Romney/Santorum map looks like Illinois’ Democrat/Republican breakdown. Rural and suburban going to the Republicans and urban going to the Dems.

Fallon on March 7, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I live in one of the Google Maps yellow strongholds and the pattern seems to be wealthier, more democratic areas go Romney. This is despite the fact many Democrats crossed over and voted for Santorum in Ohio.

Some talking head like Frum said it was upscale versus downscale when it came to your Republican primary choice. No one likes hearing that, but the areas outside of what Romney won in Ohio are desperately depressing areas.

How much money does Santorum have left? They are headed to the southern states next. According to Gingrich this is when the bottom falls out of Santorum’s campaign.

Dr Evil on March 7, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Gingrich donor base is essentially just Adelson. The surprising donation of the last 10 millions from Adelson to Newt was thought to be less pro Newt than to stop Santorum. The spigot may be turned off soon.

It’s gonna be a tough March for Mittens from now on with the states remaining. Can’t believe Santorum nearly beat him in Ohio despite being outspent 12-1.

Lord of the Wings on March 7, 2012 at 8:13 AM

The reality is that Romney has an easier path to the nomination than before. It is pretty much mathmatically impossible for the other candidates to obtain 1144, unless one of them was to garner 50% or more of the vote in the states remaining.

And, do you think that, if Santorum had the money to spend in Ohio he would have won? I’m not so sure. All the polls had Santorum leading by double digits less than 2 weeks ago, and the conservative media was pushing him and praising him on a level that money can’t buy. But most voters want someone who is going to make this election about the economy, and he proved himself unable to do that.

Even if Gingrich wins the southern states in March, he would have to win them by substantial percentages to be awarded the total delegates for each state. That’s unlikely, more likely he would win, and have to share the delegates with other candidates state by state.

Perhaps Gingrich’s strategy is to simply out wait Santorum?

Once the primaries go back up to the NE states in April, it’s Romney and Paul country again.

It’s all about “Optics” How much money does Santorum have left? They are headed to the southern states next. According to Gingrich this is when the bottom falls out of Santorum’s campaign. I heard that Mitt will be spending something like 3 million in each of the above states on advertisement. I doubt that Santorum or Gingrich have the kind of money to counter Romney’s strategy. I thought that Illinois was in the mix for March? It’s expected that Romney would do well in Illinois.

Dr Evil on March 7, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Santorum is saying he spent his children’s college snob fund to campaign. That is an appeal for the heartstrings, but also makes him look weak. I expect Santorum to out compete Gingrich in the South. Illinois is March 20th, but only coming after Kansas and a slew of Southern TruStates first. It will be a tough rest of March for Romney.

My biggest surprise though was how close he came in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and the fact he won Alaska.

Bluegill, you are one of the reasons I barely post in HotAir anymore. You and the other militant anti-Conservatives are driving out most of the old guard. AP has allowed one of the few Conservative sites to slide off a cliff.

dominigan on March 7, 2012 at 8:58 AM

That’s funny, as most of us oldtimers here feel that after the Townhall buyout, the exact opposite is true, and that SoCons/TruCons are the only ones really welcome here.

Romney beat Santorum by 1% in Ohio. Newt received 15% of the vote. Those 15% would have broke for Santorum how much?

Romney is a loser that cannot garner more than 30-40% on his best days. He wont “say outrageous things about the president” like uhh maybe that he is a socialist or that maybe he wants $10 gallon gas so his “green” energy actually becomes viable north of $6 a gallon. Romneycare Romneycare and Romneycare.

We are F*cked. We conservatives better get our sh*t together organize and next time lets not divide our vote up so much we lose every major primary even though we easily out number the moderates in everyone of those same primaries.

Has Romney won a single primary were if it was just him vs X conservative (not even counting Paulbots) he would have won? Well short Massachusetts?

This is despite the fact many Democrats crossed over and voted for Santorum in Ohio.

antisense on March 7, 2012 at 9:04 AM
I’m starting to doubt that happened. A possible slight of hand by the Dems to push Romney?

Fallon on March 7, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I know when I went to the polls I could declare my affiliation with any party. There was a campaign in Michigan to pad his numbers and it probably happened here too. Not sure where I read it, but there were thousands of Dems who voted Santorum, allegedly.

That is actually a sad truth. The more involved I have become with the Republican party in Illinois, the more disappointed and critical I have become of them. (Hint, there is no difference between the two parties in Illinois. The right is as bellied-up to the public trough as the left is.)

Wow, Mitt outspending Rick by 6:1, and still barely winning Ohio…if Newt hadn’t been in the race, you have to wonder just how strong (or weak) is Mitt.
I can’t imagine with all the press, all of the money, outspending on ads, Mitt’s super-pac, and winning by just 1%.
Definitely he is weaker than most anyone imagined…I don’t feel comfortable with a guy like Mitt, just eking out these “wins”. He won’t have that money or super-pack advantage over Obama…and Rick would have super-pacs and money.
Pretty obvious who is really the stronger candidate.

Rick Santorum was WAY ahead in Ohio (by something like 18 points, I think, in one poll) just a week ago.

Then voters learned more Rick Santorum and what they learned they didn’t like. Voters rejected the bigot Rick Santorum. Heck, Catholic voters were especially repulsed by the extremist freak Rick Santorum, who is Catholic himself. Santorum lost Catholic voters by a large margin! Maybe they were embarrassed of the guy? I don’t blame them.

What you saw yesterday was Mitt Romney coming roaring back in a come-from-behind victory to defeat the bigot Rick Santorum.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Newt Gingrich emerged as the principle opponent to Romney in the coming weeks.

The bigot Rick Santorum had his chance, failed, and is now yesterday’s news.

In the end, though, it’s obvious that Mitt Romney will win the nomination.

All the polls had Santorum leading by double digits less than 2 weeks ago, and the conservative media was pushing him and praising him on a level that money can’t buy. But most voters want someone who is going to make this election about the economy, and he proved himself unable to do that.

Priscilla on March 7, 2012 at 9:05 AM

The big money ads hit the last couple of weeks…that’s what these campaigns do, they saturate (if you have the super pacs, lobbyists, wall street money) the last two weeks…nearly a 15:1 advantage the last couple of weeks, and he still just won by 1%…it should have been a blow out.

Other than the left wing sites, I’ve found Hotair is one of the very very few sites that allow this kind of traffic. Many of the regulars hardly post anymore. You can’t have a blog and not moderate it. It turns to trash as we’ve seen since the open registration.

It’s the trolls and bots objective to disrupt the site, that should be a given. But it’s the mods that should put a stop to it.

The former is doing their job, but the latter? Nope!

bluefox on March 7, 2012 at 2:01 AM

Is exposure to differing options too much stress for your delicate little mind?

Definitely he is weaker than most anyone imagined…I don’t feel comfortable with a guy like Mitt, just eking out these “wins”. He won’t have that money or super-pack advantage over Obama…and Rick would have super-pacs and money.
Pretty obvious who is really the stronger candidate.

right2bright on March 7, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I am not sure why you are complaining. TruCons wanted a long, bloody primary and they got it. They don’t really like Santorum, as on display in Oklahoma and Tennessee where he didn’t win by much in the Heartland. If Santorum had dropped out early in the race his role as foil to Romney would be filled by any of the other candidates. He is just a placeholder against Romney – just as all the other ABRs were.

Rick would have Super-pacs and money? Santorum is saying he spent his children’s college money on this race.

*He win’s his homestate of massachusetts. As a resident, I recieved no less than 6 calls from his surrogates, him, ann romneycare etc.. None from other candidates

*He wins Idaho, which has a huge mormom population

*He underpreforms in Vermont, just getting 40% of the vote in his neighboring state

*He eeks out a win in Ohio, and he outspends his competitors 6 to 1 combined

*He wins Virginia with only 59.4% of the vote with freakin Ron paul the only other name on the ballot

*He wins alaska w/only 33% of the vote w/every elected official and their organization backing him

Romneycare will lose 50 states in November. Nobody making under $200,000 will vote for him. We had blue collar votes in the bank, yet, the f*cking GOP establishment screwed it up by FIXING the election for Romneycare.

The big money ads hit the last couple of weeks…that’s what these campaigns do, they saturate (if you have the super pacs, lobbyists, wall street money) the last two weeks…nearly a 15:1 advantage the last couple of weeks, and he still just won by 1%…it should have been a blow out.

right2bright on March 7, 2012 at 9:21 AM

OK, when you are trying to say the bang from Romney’s buck should be higher, he has the money and the super-pacs. When he is against Obama he has no money nor super-pacs and Rick does?

Typical GOP establishment crap, romneycare gets about 37% of the vote, yet will get about 62% of the delegates.
The fix is in! romneycare HAS NO APPEAL TO PRINCIPLED CONSERVATIVES. WE WILL STAY HOME IF HE IS THE NOMINEE!

Force feeding us romneycare, who is carpetbombing his competitors w/negative ads to barely eek out wins is a joke.

We need a new conservative party!

Danielvito on March 7, 2012 at 9:20 AM

He gets more delegates because he wins highly populated counties, and that is what counts. Santorum can win tons of counties in rural areas but it doesn’t matter because… (comparatively) no one lives in them.

Mitt Romney’s most important victory on Super Tuesday may not have been in Ohio and may not have really even technically been a victory. Newt Gingrich’s win in Georgia was perhaps the most important result for Romney since it gave Gingrich a reason to stay in the race and continue to split the anti-Romney vote with Rick Santorum. Romney’s worse nightmare remains going one-on-one with Santorum, TheDC’s Alex Pappas reports:

“A scenario involving a Gingrich departure from the race, helping Santorum consolidate the anti-Romney vote, still threatens the former Massachusetts governor. Santorum supporters point to Gingrich’s failure to win a single state outside of the South. ‘Right now, if you’re either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, you’re thinking, ‘oh my gosh, if I could just get Mitt Romney one-on-one,’’ said political commentator Juan Williams on Fox News. ‘It’s still the case that they would think, ‘I can beat him.’”

No, what’s obvious is the anti Mormon bigotry on display by the evangelical wing of the Republican party.

“We can’t let a Mormon into office! Think of how that will legitimize it as a viable religion.”

One of the fastest growing segments of religious belief in this country is Mormonism. They are consummate missionaries and they are eating into the evangelical ranks more and more these days.

As for Mitt outspending Rick, as I said above, that’s NOT the “story”, the story is that Rick blew it with a double digit lead in Ohio prior to the election yesterday. Why did he blow it? Because he’s the proselytizer in chief.

Honestly, I have been disgusted to see the way that conservatives attack and slime each other on this site. Your comment is a perfect example – if I support Romney, I’m a “bot.” If I say anything critical of Santorum, I’m a “troll”. The fact is that it’s next to impossible to register any opinion at all here, without being attacked, unless it is a TrueCon approved talking point. The vitriol and hatred is over the top.

If HA is a true example of the state of conservatism and the Republican party, we are screwed.

If it looks like a McCain and it talks like a McCain (I like Obama, Obama’s not a bad guy, I won’t say anything outrageous about Obama), then it’s another John McCain lame campaign. Mitt Romney is such a depressing nominee and we have months and months left of his milquetoast, uninspiring, death-to-the-GOP-base, turd of a campaign.

I suggest that you and other thumb-sucking crybabies like you (who love to threaten to stay home on election day and who are mad about their preferred candidate losing) get familiar with a message from a man you may have heard of:

Breitbart – 2/10/12
“You want a unity speech; I’ll give you a unity speech. I don’t care who the candidate is and I haven’t since the beginning of this. I haven’t. Ask not what a candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate. And that’s what the Tea Party is. We are there to confront them on behalf of our candidate. I will march behind whoever our candidate is because if we don’t we lose. There are two paths: One is America, and the other one is Occupy. One is America, the other one is Occupy. I don’t care…
…Anyone who’s willing to stand next to me and fight the Progressive Left, I will be in that bunker, and If you’re not in that bunker because you’re not satisfied with this candidate, more than shame on you, you’re on the other side.”

I know that people like Danielvito are statistically irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, but it’s still disappointing to see some so-called conservatives declare that they want Obama to win if their preferred candidate doesn’t get the nomination.

Perhaps, when Mitt wins, anyone that cheers could be kicked off the website, the way they do at that other website. Then the Anyone-But-Romney crowd could pretend that they were winning with more realism.

Perhaps, when Mitt wins, anyone that cheers could be kicked off the website, the way they do at that other website. Then the Anyone-But-Romney crowd could pretend that they were winning with more realism.

claudius on March 7, 2012 at 9:40 AM

If you post enthusiastically in support of Romney here, they will call for your banning. It’s kind of sad. They like existing in a bubble echo chamber.

The issue is not bigot Rick Santorum’s religion; the issue is the fact that Rick Santorum wants to impose his religion on everyone else.

In the interest of information-sharing, here is a small sample of relevant Rick Santorum quotes:

“If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does.”

“One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country. It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. [Sex] is supposed to be within marriage. It’s supposed to be for purposes that are yes, conjugal…but also procreative. That’s the perfect way that a sexual union should happen…This is special and it needs to be seen as special.”

-Rick Santorum

“The state has a right to do that, I have never questioned that the state has a right to do that. It is not a constitutional right, the state has the right to pass whatever statutes they have.”

-Anti-birth control Rick Santorum, happily asserting that states can ban birth control

“The idea is that the state doesn’t have rights to limit individuals’ wants and passions. I disagree with that. I think we absolutely have rights because there are consequences to letting people live out whatever wants or passions they desire.”

-Rick Santorum

Santorum Quote:

“This idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do,” Santorum complained to NPR in 2006, “that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom, we shouldn’t get involved in cultural issues … that is not how traditional conservatives view the world.”

If it looks like a McCain and it talks like a McCain (I like Obama, Obama’s not a bad guy, I won’t say anything outrageous about Obama), then it’s another John McCain lame campaign. Mitt Romney is such a depressing nominee and we have months and months left of his milquetoast, uninspiring, death-to-the-GOP-base, turd of a campaign.

gumbyandpokey on March 7, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I keep telling myself that I’ll vote for him – like I did for McCain – if he’s the nominee. But it’s really hard to get worked up about someone who will fight like McCain and offers little change over what we have now. Great, he’ll repeal ObamneyCare, what about the EPA? What about the Dept of [In]Justice? I’m as interested in who his cabinet might be as his VIP but I never hear any real details.