Lessons From A Dubai Default

Last week, just before the Thanksgiving holiday, Dubai World asked creditors if it could suspend payments on nearly $60 billion in debt. Experts call this a “technical default” by Dubai itself because it owns Dubai World which is a state run investment company.

Imagine calling your banker and telling him that you are not going to make your mortgage payment for at least 6 months; that would also be considered a technical default. The folks defaulting on their debt are famous for building the man-made palm tree shaped island in the Persian Gulf. Ya think maybe they over did it?

Now, according to Reuters, there may be some sort of bailout by the U.A.E central bank. “The United Arab Emirates‘ central bank set up an emergency facility on Sunday to support bank liquidity in the first policy response to Dubai‘s debt woes that threatened to paralyze lending and derail economic recovery.” (Click here for the complete Reuters story.)

Problem solved, right? Not by a long shot, according to banking analyst Dick Bove. The problem is the financial system is murky. You have things like derivatives, credit default swaps and off balance sheet accounting that make it hard for banks to tell how much they might lose on bad Dubai debt. Bove said in an online CNN story, “There could be huge indirect exposure,” he said. “One has to assume that U.S. banks will be hurt.”(Click here for the complete CNN story.)

It is not just American banks that might take a hit, but also some European Banks will probably be forced to take some big losses. We won’t know how the Dubai financial crisis will work out for weeks or maybe months. Dubai has $12 billion in debt coming due before the end of 2009 and plenty more debt due in 2010.

So where are the lessons here concerning the Dubai debt default? Two things come to mind. If you thought that the financial crisis was ending, then Dubai is a reminder that the crisis is growing not shrinking. I wrote about the U.S banking troubles last week in a post called the “FDIC Is Way Beyond Broke.”This new Dubai default could not come at a more inopportune time, especially for U.S. banks.

Also, this is a worldwide banking crisis that will require a worldwide solution. That solution seems to be the same on every continent. Dubai will likely print money and let nothing collapse just like everyone else. By the way, The U.S. Mint suspended the sales of Gold and Silver Eagle coins on the same day Dubai announced its “technical default.” That probably is a coincidence but, then again, if you have a banking crisis, do you want people taking money out of the system and buying precious metals?

The Dubai crisis is a sign that the global financial meltdown that began in 2007 is just picking up steam, and it will get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

About the Author

Greg Hunter

Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.

Comments

Chris11/30/2009 •

Well said and right on target as always. I think that we’re just going to see wing after wing being built on to this global house of cards until it comes tumbling down.

Yes you’re quite right, this whole thing is just picking up speed. Well I hope that the astute readers of this and other columns have shielded themselves with an aegis of precious metals. Years ago, I used to scoff at the end-of-the-roaders, but today, not so much.

I really think this whole collapse is being engineered. But I think that the model is Argentina, rather than Zimbabwe. I think the idea is to destroy dollar hegemony and move on to a “brave new [post-dollar] world,” whatever that will be.

Short-term, I wouldn’t be the LEAST bit surprised to see some sort of bank holiday(s) official dollar devaluation once or twice on our road to perdition here. But rest assured, there’s no pulling back from the precipice at this point — no way. The continuum I’m imagining runs from “really really bad” to “pretty much catastrophic”.

But I doubt if heads will roll! I think Americans will be too involved keeping body and soul together to worry about what punishment is meted out to whom. We’re in for a real nor’wester.

Todd,
Something big is going on that is for sure. I think all the signs are there that this crisis is getting worse. I hope people take the steps to protect themselves. Thank you for your comment and insight!
Greg

Uhh, buying gold takes nothing out of the banking system. The person or organization that sells the gold gets dollars for it, and the person buying it gives dollars for it. The seller deposits the money, the purchaser withdraws the money. For the banking system it is 0 gain/loss game. It is no different than buying any other commodity.

Marshal,
I disagree because the gold seller does not turn around and deposit the money. The coin store, for example, will take the money and pay salaries, expenses, take profit and buy more products to sell. The buyer will take the money out of a bank and therefore the bank will no longer have it to loan out. So buying precious metals is not a zero sum game. Thank you for your comment.
Greg

This is just another example of what has been dubbed the “sky scraper indicator.” That is, every time a new world’s tallest building is built, it is fairly quickly followed by a financial meltdown in the building country.

Hi Greg,
so far people in charge were and are able to maintain the financial system going, and this can go on, theoratically for ever. However in practice this is not the case in your view what are the most likely events in order of posibilities (this of any kind of events)or signs of events that could or would trigger a meltdown

UncoolSam,
People like gold expert Jim Sinclair say we will not go to another fiat currency but to some sort of gold or commodity backed currency. The BRIC countries are talking about a Super Sovereign currency backed by gold, oil and other commodities, as a competitor to the dollar. If there is an Amero it will probably be backed by something. Sinclair thinks the U.S. dollar will have to be backed by gold someday. I guess we will have to wait and see. Thank you for your comment and the video!!!
Greg

Leave A Reply

Please Note: All comments are moderated and manually reviewed for spam. In turn, your comment may take up to 24 hours to be posted. USAWatchdog.com also reserves the right to edit comments for grammar and spelling errors.

Greg’s Favorite Sites & Articles

Archives

Archives

About

Greg is the producer and creator of Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin.

USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.