Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.

Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous recordSix flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.

Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on recordOn Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quietThe Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Nice flare up in the Western Caribbean today but whatever low level vorticity that exists is inland over Central America and its close proximity to invest 92E will make it hard for much organisation to occur in the short term.

We had some nice rain here last night and more seems to be on the way today. The "blob" approaching the gulf of Honduras has that precursor look that we often see before a system tries to organize but for now nothing appears to be imminent. Surface pressures in the NW Caribbean are high, shear is in the 30 knot range and the feature is likely to go ashore later today or tomorrow.

Any chance for development may not come until the BOC unless the blob stalls or the tropical wave leaves a stationary low behind. The models do not call for that scenario at this time.

Quoting aspectre:Very healthy for a blob. Anyone see it getting Invested soon? ie before Monday?

Hey aspecte. I wouldn't worry yet. I look healthy for a blob, too. Just thought you all might like to see a close-up of it. I think it does have possibilities. Doing a little analysis now. Will let you know.

Nice image of 92E and the Caribbean blob. Sometimes these systems can interact with each other. You know, inflow and outflow boundaries. Wind shear and other lots of other stuff. Maybe they may have a chance to do something in the next few days.

the area of disturbed weather in the western caribbean ,has increase in convection. there seems to be some cyclonic turning in the mid levels.it is quite possible that a low pressure is trying to form between off the coast of nicaragua and jamaica

Just want to say thanks for all the rain dances and rain prayers, etc.... They finally paid off and we received 2" of rain, first rain sense mid March last night. I tried leaving my fan running outside, leaving the car windows down, etc... nothing worked. Too bad weather control is just not realistic. Now if we could just get some rain over to Texas! I have not been posting for almost a year, looks to be relatively troll free this year so I'll give it a whirl.

Quoting Neapolitan:Good Blazing Saturday, fellow WU-ians. In addition to the ongoing and relentless heat and drought, a quick update on a few other things that have been discussed here recently:

--The much-vaunted water filtration plan at Fukushima had to be stopped just a few hours into the planned months-long program when it was discovered that caesium levels were far higher than anyone expexted. Caesium-absorbing cartridges that were expected to last several weeks reached their limit in under five hours.

Quoting Neapolitan:Good Blazing Saturday, fellow WU-ians. In addition to the ongoing and relentless heat and drought, a quick update on a few other things that have been discussed here recently:

--The much-vaunted water filtration plan at Fukushima had to be stopped just a few hours into the planned months-long program when it was discovered that caesium levels were far higher than anyone expexted. Caesium-absorbing cartridges that were expected to last several weeks reached their limit in under five hours.

Good Blazing Saturday, fellow WU-ians. In addition to the ongoing and relentless heat and drought, a quick update on a few other things that have been discussed here recently:

--The much-vaunted water filtration plan at Fukushima had to be stopped just a few hours into the planned months-long program when it was discovered that caesium levels were far higher than anyone expexted. Caesium-absorbing cartridges that were expected to last several weeks reached their limit in under five hours.

During the last three hours, cloudy conditionsincreased over both Trinidad and Tobago resultingin periods of moderate to heavy showers and rainalong with scattered moderate to heavythunder-showers particularly in Trinidad. Theseconditions are due to the ITCZ interacting with atropical wave approaching the twin islandrepublic.

The above conditions are forecasted to continueover the next 4 to 6 hours with rainfallaccumulations likely to yield amounts in excessof 25 millimeters. Street and flash floodingalong with gusty winds in excess of 40 km/h areexpected to continue accompanying heavy showersand thundershowers. Rivers of moderate carryingcapacities may also become inundated.

pleth·o·ra [pleth-er-uh] Show IPA–noun1.overabundance; excess: a plethora of advice and a paucity of assistance.2.Pathology Archaic . a morbid condition due to excess of red corpuscles in the blood or increase in the quantity of blood.

ELSEWHERE...SUMMER IS MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE DEEPSOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMALTEMPERATURES LASTING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHTEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FORMUCH OF TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MORE HUMID CONDITIONSNEAR THE GULF COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACHAFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE PRESENCEOF GULF SEA BREEZES AND A PLETHORA OF HUMIDITY.

Meanwhile, back at the OT Fukushima ranch ... the situation is not improving. Looks to me like there is going to be a lot of *highly* radioactive water dumped into the sea.

The groundwater is contaminated, and radioactive sewage sludge has been found in 16 of 46 prefectures in Japan. Hot spots are still being found well outside of the 30km exclusion zone. Whales are starting to turn up radioactive as strontium and other nasty things get concentrated up the food chain.

WTO

(from the Wall Street Journal)

Tepco Suspends Water Treatment OperationBY DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI

TOKYO—Tokyo Electric Power Co., the operator of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, said it halted the use of a new system for decontaminating highly radioactive water after levels of radiation in one part of the system rose faster than expected.

The suspension came only five hours after Tepco started operation of the system, which aims to reduce the vast amounts of irradiated water at the facility. ...