What Trading Pence to the Giants Would Mean

The Phillies and Giants may or may not have agreed in principle to a deal to send Hunter Pence across the country last night. The news came from CSN BayArea’s beat reporter, and recent Jeopardy! standout, Andrew Baggardly (@CSNBaggs) who cited KPIX CBS San Francisco’s Sports Director Dennis O’Donnell (@KPIXSports). O’Donnell reported that the deal was pending Giants ownership approval and likely included catching prospect Tommy Joseph.

Baggardly confirmed that O’Donnell’s Twitter account was, in fact, O’Donnell and that O’Donnell has a history of getting scoops on hot Giant news items, including first breaking Aubrey Huff‘s extension and Bruce Boche’s hiring as head coach. KPIX even went as far as to start their early morning sportscast today with this screen shot:

A deal may or may not have been set in place to send Pence to the Giants last night according to KPIX CBS SF.

Understandably, many folks are still skeptical of this news as it is not being reported by any of the major national reporters and baseball insiders. If the news is true, and the deal does hinge around catching prospect Joseph, it would be a disappointing trade. It is abundantly clear that the Phillies will not recoup full value for Pence compared to the haul they gave up last year but the Phillies already have a player similar to, further along in development than, and better than Joseph in Reading (Sebastian Valle).

Further more, aside from a few top chips, San Francisco’s system was ranked only 23rd by FanGraphs headed into the 2012 season, three spots behind the Phils, and lacks depth other than catchers and outfielders, so it becomes unlikely any of the Phils’ infield depth needs would be addressed. Yet, if Pence is going to San Francisco, here are some names that I would piece a Pence trade around.

Parameters

It is understood that the Phillies will not receive comparable value from their first trade because A.) Pence only has one more year left of arbitration, B.) it is a becoming an expensive year (estimated at $14.3 million by MLB Trade Rumors), and C.) they massively overpaid for him to begin with. The Phillies gave up two Top-50 level prospects for Pence, one of which who is now a top-25 and climbing prospect, but should not settle for anything less than two Top-100 level prospects. Dealing with the Giants makes this very, very tough, but it can be done.

You thought I would say Gary Brown, didn’t you? While Brown is the top prospect left in the Giants cabinet and plays center field, his age and development scares me away. Instead, Panik is a high-ceiling shortstop from St. John’s University who hits well for average and has increasing power. At age 21, Panik is playing High-A ball and hitting .275/.353/.379 and is striking out in less than 10% of his at-bats.

Yes, Tommy Joseph is a catcher and I said I did not want him. Yes, Hector Sanchez, 22, is a catcher and I do want him. Sanchez went from Single-A to MLB last year in one swoop. The portly backstop is blocked by Buster Posey at the Major League-level but has produced admirably in 133 PA (.281/.286/.383, 2 HR). His ceiling is likely somewhere between the Bengie and Jose Molina but he’s a cheap and decent back-up option for Chooch and a fill-in-the-gap option if Chooch cannot be retained after 2013 and Valle is not ready.

Osich, 22, is a 6’3″ lefty out of Oregon State who has big-time potential. Osich was likely good enough to go in the second or supplemental first round of the 2011 draft but recent Tommy John surgery scared teams away. Osich is averaging over a K/9 IP in his first pro season at High-A. This is the kind of lottery ticket you want as a throw-in.

Peguero, 24, is hitting .260/.286/.393 in his first season at Triple-A Fresno and has never struggled to hit for average. Peguero shows little power but has ceiling in his peak years similar to a better Ben Francisco. It’s unlikely that Peguero will develop power but could be an obtainable asset as he is effectively blocked by Brown despite being a level above him.

And there you have it: four players for Hunter Pence: a future shortstop, a Major-League ready catcher, a lottery ticket lefty reliever, and a Major-League ready outfielder. This may be the best the Phillies can get back for Pence.

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0 Comments

Ryne Duren

July 30, 2012 at 12:13 pm

good article ian! at this point trading pence i don’t think is a good idea. unless you can get a good prospect . who i don’t know but i would have to get a ready righthanded bat back. which i think would be hard to do. i’ve been mulling this crap through and through. let me run this by you and get your input. expand the deal if you’re gonna deal pence. this is gonna sound crazy but here goes. trade pence and either halliday or lee to the rangers and a prospect. for nelson cruz, olt, profar and another prospect. the object of a trade is to make your team better but if you trade you have to think of what the other side is getting in return for what you want. # 1 pence for cruz. we get a RH bat with some power back. cruz is 32 we’ll make that position younger for them. #2 halliday or lee for olt and profar. they get a starter who they need . if it’s halliday we eat the last year of his contract and they give us a lower level prospect. if it’s lee we don’t eat crap. let them haggle over what prospect we give them.

in a sense it helps both teams they get a little more offense in pence the D part is a wash they get younger there and we cut some payroll. moving one of our aces cut a lot of payroll if it’s lee. but we get a posible left side of an infield for the next 10 years. then trade rollins to oakland, or try to i think he has 10-5 rights. but maybe he’ll go home. for balfour and michael taylor. by doing that we can content possibly in 2 years we’ll have shed about 45m or so from our payroll not counting poly’s, vic,s and blantons pay and that frees up lot of money to buy whatever you need. just some thoughts! i know theres probably some holes in it but hey that’s why i’m here typnig this stuff and not the phils GM.

calm down chuck! it was just a thought my friend, a fantasy, i don’t expect that to happen but wow if it did! now i hope it doesn’t! i wouldn’t want you to stop watching pal. i would much prefer you watch and be miserable like the rest of us. hahahaha

First, I’ll believe this rumor only when one of the teams involved announces it.

But I’ll also say that the Phils overpaid for Pence to begin with, his pay will exceed his talent next year, and the Phils need to cut payroll. If they can trade him for anything, it’s probably a positive move. An earlier example would be trading Abreu; they got little back, but it allowed for other changes. The probable $14 million Pence will be getting in arbitration can buy quite a bit.

I’d like the Phils to get more, but I also realize that if you make a mistake on a player, you can’t expect someone else to make the same mistake.

The ‘protection for Howard’ myth is right up there with Bigfoot and Loch Ness.Teams don’t fear Howard no matter who is hitting behind him.Teams agressively attack Howard because they know the deal,
Junk out of the strike zone, High heat. He can’t hit, or lay off, either.
He’a an AO (automatic out) for any picther with the even the slightest ability to change speed or locate a baseball. Ask Atlanta.

Are you all clueless ? Gary Brown is failing miserably at AA. Tommy Joseph is a much better player than Valle. At the Eastern League all star team I told him to ask his agent for a trade to Philly since Buster Posey is blocking him. He has ridiculous power and can knock the cover off the ball.

As a Giants fan, I sure hope we don’t get Pence. He’s only hit at 2 of the most hitter-friendly parks around, Houston and Philly. S.F. is a terrible hitter’s park, and his average would drop considerably. Also, we don’t NEED another hitter. When Pablo comes off the DL, we’re fine. This is the time of year team’s panic (or Panik?) and make huge mistakes. If anything, we need a reliever. And if the Giants are going to get an OF, I’d much rather see us trade BELT for CHOO.