The Warriors’ Free Agents — What Comes Next

With the Warriors capped out, Chris Cohan slashing costs and the uncertainty of future ownership likely preventing any major deals, I figured last week — the kick off of the free agent signing period — was a pretty safe time to sneak away for a vacation. The Warriors, for a change, didn’t disappoint. In the still developing free agent arms race, the Warriors are once again on the sideline. Before the free agency period started, however, the team made 2 moves and 2 non-moves that will impact the next month. Here’s what they got right, what they messed up, and what we can expect in the near future.

A brief salary cap review: right before the first week of July (the free agency moratorium, during which contracts can be discussed but not officially signed), teams decide whether to extend qualifying offers to their own potentially restricted free agents. This offer is a non-negotiable amount determined by prior salary that serves the primary purposes of locking in the restricted status. Players can accept the qualifying offer if they want, but more frequently they negotiate longer and richer deals with their own team or others (which their own team can then match).

The Warriors had four potentially restricted free agents (Morrow, Watson, Tolliver, Hunter) and extended two qualifying offers. By my count, that was one too few — but no surprise given the current state of the roster and Cohan’s desire to keep costs down.

Morrow — Of the four free agents, Morrow has the best chance of sticking with the team. He can play some 3, so he fits a need. By all accounts, he’s a gym rat (he’s been working with the team even without a contract). If the team wants to keep Randolph around, Morrow would also be a good person to have in the locker room to keep him happy. Whether or not the Warriors ink him will likely come down to cost, but given the rumored demand for his services around the league, a right to match may allow the Warriors to get something in return if the deal turns out to be too rich for the team’s current status.

Watson — At least superficially, Watson also looks like he fits a need (back-up PG). With Ellis still on the roster and Reggie Williams demonstrating an ability to lead the team during limited stretches to close last season, Watson is a luxury. He has no skills that aren’t duplicated by others, but is the type of reliable bench player that good teams have to round out their rotation. The intrigue surrounding Watson will be whether the same teams supposedly interested in his services last year (Orlando was in the lead) come back this year to see if a sign-and-trade can be worked out with the Warriors. Since his 09-10 campaign was an up-and-down one, the demand may have lessened a bit, but the Warriors still might get a bench player, a second round pick and/or cash back in return.

Hunter — With the Udoh pick and Gadzuric acquisition, Hunter became expendable. He turned in workman-like minutes last year and should have training camp offers from teams, but would have been the Warriors’ sixth option for center given their current roster and coach. There was a very good chance that Hunter would have accepted the Warriors’ qualifying offer, so there was serious financial downside for Cohan in gaining whatever immeasurably small leverage restricted status would have provided in Hunter’s case.

Tolliver — Unlike Hunter, I suspect there will be a fairly active market for Tolliver’s services next year given what he showed in his half-campaign with the Warriors. There will be the usual Nellie-ball discounting of his statistical output, but players with consistent mid-range jumpers tend to stick in the NBA, particularly if they can also rebound a bit. By not extending the qualifying offer, Cohan, Rowell and Riley once again gave away a potential asset for nothing in return. It’s nowhere near as egregious as waiving Speedy Claxton’s expiring deal in the week before the trade deadline, but it prevents the Warriors from trying to squeeze other teams for something if they want Tolliver. If — as Riley explained after downgrading our second round pick, then trading it away entirely — D-League players are as good as second rounders, why shouldn’t we at least try to land a replacement pick rather than simply let a player we were trumping up a few weeks before walk away for nothing?

The Tolliver move may have been a small strategic mistake and another discordant note in the team’s PR tune (like Bell, Tolliver was dumped despite fans repeatedly being told last season how excited we should be to have him on the roster). But so long as Nelson is coaching and Wright and Randolph are on the roster, I don’t oppose the move. With power forward minutes increasingly hard to come by, the last thing the team needs is a perimeter-focused player slotted into the position by Nelson rather than giving one of our younger under-the-basket players a chance to develop. If Nelson is gone, then the Tolliver loss hurts a bit more. He could play as a big 3 against slower opponents and had good chemistry with Curry and others. Like Watson, he’s not the guy I want starting or even in the top half of my bench, but he’s a great luxury as a 10th man.

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Now, the waiting game begins. The mid-level exception and cheaper free agents likely will start inking deals after the smoke clears this week from the fireworks of James’, Bosh’s and Amare’s deals. The Warriors may try to get Morrow to wrap things up quickly, but he’d be smart to test the waters a bit to drive up his price. The same is true for Watson — particularly if he still wants to get an offer high enough for the Warriors not to match, so he can find a new home — so both free agents’ may be on the market for awhile.

As for bringing in a new free agent — ideally one that has the size and skills to play small forward — I’m not optimistic. There will be names rumored and we might even throw some money at another team’s restricted free agent, but there’s unlikely to be a player any better than what we have for less than the mid-level exception. I doubt Cohan and Rowell are willing to spend the entire mid-level (even for a potential starter), and I similarly don’t see them spending a smaller amount simply to tack another rotation guy to the depth chart. In other words, we should be crossing all our fingers that Kelenna Azubuike has made a full recovery and/or that Anthony Morrow has learned how to play defense.

Adam Lauridsen

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Oracle #87. In seven years Randolph will be lucky to have the year Lee had last year.
Lee is tough and he gets better every year. What’s to say he won’t be even better with a point guard like Curry. Remember him working with Chris Duhon? Looked great. And Duhon is no Steph Curry.
Thing is Wright and Randolph are too similar. If we didn’t have Wright (and Udoh now) Randolph might be a big loss. But we do have him, and he might very well end up being better than Randolph at which point it would be like having both Lee and Randolph.
And Curry.
And Monta.
And Biedrins.
And Udoh.
I’d sign Tolliver though, especially with Udoh out.
Randolph hasn’t proved anything yet.
And really, I hope he blows up in New York and has a great career, and that Lee does too.
We need what Lee brings more right now. We can lose a lanky young guy in exchange for an experienced banger. Lee has always been able to rebound.
And he’s better defensively at the four than at the five where he’s had to play. He’ll be a better defender at the 4 than anyone we’ve had lately. Than Maggette.
We’ll be much better.
Just watch.

Incidentally if you check the records I was the first to suggest going after Lee.
Three years ago.
My first post on this blog.
So blame me if it goes wrong.

tWISTED sISTER

Remember, Don Nelson said — Marco Bellinelli will be a star in this league…

You’re truly f@% up nelliesbiggesta$$h*le

Jules

Only one single trade is acceptable this season of reason:

Trade Chris Cohan for Larry Ellison – straight up!

There! Everybody – feel better!

CURSE OF MULLIN

I like the idea of getting David Lee. Monta for Lee I support all the way. I am convinced that Monta will never be much of a difference maker. Randolph for Lee? No way. There is a good chance that Randolph will be a real difference maker. It’s not certain, by any means, but he could become special–the type of guy who can control the game at both ends.

gmoney

JSL, Oracle, you two always make me reconsider. Doesn’t help to have Monsta against me on this one too. I respect all your opinions greatly, but I feel very strongly about Lee. I don’t think this is a move just to make a move. Lee is the kind of big Nellie covets. I see him more in the mold of a power version of Dirk. I know you probably think I am high, but after spending some time watching some game clips of him I see he has the total package offensively.

First, he knows how to use a three point stance. When he faces up he is dangerous. Opposing 4’s and especially 5’s will not be able to handle his face up game. In fact, I believe he is far better than Randolph at taking his man off the dribble and finishing at the rim. Despite Randolphs great athleticism, he struggles scoring when someone is bodying up on him. Its his major weakness inside and its Lee’s main strength.

This leads to the second point. Though not a power defensive player, Lee is definitely a power offensive player. He knows how to use position well and he’s even better at using his body to shield the ball while finishing at the other end of the backboard. He has the body to go up, draw contact and still finish. I love Randolph, but when he drives and doesn’t have an open lane, he falls apart. He loses leverage and position and is forced to take awkward looking fad away hooks that rely more on length than position.

Finally, Lee understands how to score without having the ball in his hands. He is very good at finding open space and flashing into the lane, establishing position once in, and finishing strong. AR throws down some of the nastiest, meanest dunks around, but he is a purely finesse finisher inside when defended. Lee knows how to create offense by exploiting opportunity. Combining him with a guy like Curry opens up so many possibilities. Think for a second about all the great PF’s in the game in the past couple of decades. They have almost all had PG’s associated with them. That collaboration is what can change the fortunes of a team. Curry may turn Lee into a perennial all star. Lets not forget the many easy putbacks or outright slams he will get with Monta flashing to the lane.

Finally, though Randolph is a good rebounder, the kinds of rebounds he gets are completely different than the kind Lee gets. Lee gets rebounds by gaining great position and working before the shot comes off the rim to secure the board. Randolph springs well for the ball after it comes off the rim, but before he isn’t strong enough get position. Due to his lanky frame, I am afraid he never will be. As a result they get similar board numbers but Lee gets a lot more defensive rebounds while AR gets more offensive rebounds. Defensive rebounding is our greatest weakness at the moment and I believe Lee is superior to AR in the kind of rebounding that leads to defensive boards.

In the end, its a close call, thats why the board lit up when the news came out. Each player has his relative strengths and weaknesses, I just happen to believe Lee’s pluses and minuses fit our team a bit better than Randolph’s. And all this depends on Queen James. Gotta love it.

Haystack Hank

Monta Ellis is a way better fit with Amar’e than Anthony Randolph in Dantoni’s system. An immature semi-hothead AR, and weirdo semi-headcase Amare don’t mesh on and off the floor. AR IS NOT READY for NY fans and media.

in order for the w’s to pass on this deal you have to be pretty sure AR will pass Lee as a player. Is that really a good bet ? defensive bigs like warrick and stromile swift are easy to find. AR has to raise his offensive game a lot just to match Lee. Not doing this deal is the bigger risk.

The trade works for both teams. AR next to stoudamire works because of Stoudamire’s great offensive abilities. Lee can play next to AB because of his offensive abilities. I have posted often that no NBA teams play two non-scoring bigs together.

This board has had AR overated for a long time. The likelyhood that he will become a good player is high, the likelyhood that he will become great is quite low. Has a player who didn’t dominate at the high school or college level ever become a superstar ? Passing on this deal because you think AR will become a superstar is a risky bet.