U.S. soybean meal exports up, soybean exports lower than expected

Expectations for an increase in soybean acreage in 2006 are
driven
by the cost advantage of soybeans over competing crops like corn, said a
University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Other factors driving these expectations include increased acreage of
double-cropped soybeans stemming from an increase in acreage of soft red
winter wheat and a rebound in acreage in Minnesota and the Dakotas if
spring weather is more normal," said Darrel Good.

Good's comments came as he reviewed consumption, stocks, and acreage of
soybeans.
"The magnitude of U.S. soybean exports during the current marketing year
continues to be disappointing," he said. "The USDA now forecasts 2005-06
marketing year shipments at only 900 million bushels.
"At the beginning of the 2005-06 marketing year, the USDA expected U.S.
exports would reach a record 1.115 billion bushels. That forecast has
been
lowered every month since October 2005."

So far this year, USDA weekly export estimates have been tracking the
monthly Census Bureau estimates very closely, he noted. Through January
2006, both the cumulative inspections estimate and the cumulative
estimate
from the Export Sales report were just five million bushels below the
Census Bureau estimate of 510.7 million bushels.

As of March 16, 2006, exports totaled about 671 million bushels, 200
million less than on the same day last year. Only Taiwan and Mexico have
imported more U.S. soybeans this year than were imported last year.

"Shipments to China, which have accounted for 46 percent of all U.S.
exports, are running nearly 22 percent behind the pace of a year ago,"
said
Good. "Unshipped sales of U.S. soybeans to all destinations on March 9,
2006 totaled only 98.3 million bushels, compared to 119 million on the
same
date last year.
"Only China has larger sales on the books than at this time last year.
That
total, however, is only 29 million bushels. With a record-large South
American harvest under way, U.S. exports may struggle to reach 900
million
bushels by August 31, 2006."

The domestic crush of soybeans so far this year has exceeded the early
USDA
forecast. The projection in September 2005 was for a marketing year
crush
of 1.685 billion bushels, 11 million less than the crush of the previous
year. The March 2006 forecast was at 1.72 billion bushels, 1.4 percent
larger than last year's crush.

"The cumulative crush through the first five months of the marketing
year
was 2.2 percent larger than that of a year ago," said Good.
"Indications,
however, are that the crush slowed in February. The larger-than-expected
crush to date has been fueled by slightly larger soybean meal exports
than
forecast at the beginning of the year and a slightly lower meal content
of
the 2005 crop."

Soybean oil consumption is currently expected to be 19.125 billion
pounds,
compared to the September 2005 forecast of 19.15 billion pounds. The
soft
export market for U.S. soybean oil along with the record high oil
content
of the 2005 crop is expected to result in year-ending U.S. oil stocks of
2.679 billion pounds, only slightly below the record year-ending
inventory
of 2.877 billion pounds in 2000-01.