Terror threat driven by Russian military engagement in Syria and
militancy in North Caucasus region.

May 01, 2018 06:24 AM Eastern Daylight Time

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sunni Islamist militants, including Russian jihadists returning from
conflict zones in the Middle East, pose the primary terrorism threat to
the football 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia that begins in mid-June,
according to a new report released today from Jane's
Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC) by business information
provider IHS
Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

“As the tournament approaches, unofficial Islamic State propaganda and
social media channels, through the encrypted messaging app Telegram, are
beginning to produce materials threatening the tournament, seeking to
inspire lone- or self-directed individuals to conduct attacks,” Hawkins
said.

These propaganda releases have promoted tactics such as the use of
vehicles and knives, which JTIC assessed to be the most likely means to
be used in potential terror attacks.

Key findings in the report

The main security concern for the Russia World Cup is the terrorism
threat driven by militancy in the North Caucasus region and Russian
military engagement in Syria.

Militants are likely to aspire to attack stadiums and fans on match
days.

Potentially successful attacks would probably be of a low-capability,
involving vehicles, knives, or crude IEDs.

Lower probability scenarios include the use of weaponised drones,
significant IEDs, or the use of CBRN (chemical, biological,
radiological and nuclear) materials.

Russia’s security services are likely to mitigate most potential acts
of terrorism and have put in place a range of measures to attempt to
alleviate the threats posed.

Threats from returning jihadists and North Caucasus-based groups

“Returning Russian jihadists pose a likely terrorism threat to security
measures at the 2018 FIFA World Cup, motivated by their opposition to
the military involvement of Russia and other World Cup participants in
the Middle East, and towards Iran and Saudi Arabia,” Hawkins said.

Large numbers of Russian nationals travelled to Syria and Iraq to join
the Islamic State and other Islamist militant groups. A proportion of
returnees will be known to the security services and therefore are
likely to be detained or placed under surveillance.

“However, there remains a moderate risk of clandestinely returned
fighters conducting attacks during the World Cup,” Hawkins said. “Due to
their combat experience in Iraq and Syria, those returnees will probably
be proficient in constructing and deploying viable improvised explosive
devices (IEDs) and in military-standard weapon-handling.

“They are unlikely, however, to have easy access to sufficient weapons
and military-grade explosives to enable them to carry out sophisticated
paramilitary-style mass casualty attacks (such as the September 2004
attack on a school in Beslan in North Ossetia-Alania that killed 334
people),” Hawkins said.

“Additionally, a more locally-driven threat comes from Islamist
militants in the North Caucasus, who have – since the break-up of the
Soviet Union – fought against Russia’s domination of their republics,
driven by ethnic separatist, as well as jihadist, motivation,” Hawkins
said. “The main militant groups in Russia – the Islamic State’s
affiliate Wilayat al-Qawqaz and the Al-Qaeda-aligned Imarat Kavkaz – are
confined to the North Caucasus region.”

Security countermeasures in place

“Security services are already at a heightened posture following the
March 18 presidential election, and will remain in a high state of
readiness for President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration in Moscow on May
7, and in other major cities for May 9 Victory Day commemorations,”
Hawkins said. “The experience gained during these periods will be used
by security forces to inform their approach to World Cup security.”

In Moscow, authorities implemented facial-recognition technology on
5,000 cameras in the city’s CCTV network in September 2017 to
cross-match footage with ‘wanted’ images from databases and the social
media website VKontakte. Elsewhere, authorities in Volgograd have
installed 131 additional CCTV cameras ahead of the tournament and other
host cities are likely to follow suit. Such measures are likely to
assist in the timely detection and arrest of wanted individuals before
they commit an attack.

“Outside of the host cities, and particularly in Chechnya and Dagestan,
counter-terrorism operations are likely to intensify in an attempt to
mitigate threats originating from there,” Hawkins said. “Similar
pre-emptive security operations were conducted in the North Caucasus
ahead of the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014, and probably contributed to
the absence of any attacks.”

Russia will hold the 2018 FIFA Football World Cup from June 14 –July 15
in 11 host cities across the country.

IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information,
analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive
economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information,
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government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep
insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has
more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent
of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions.

Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC) by IHS Markit uses open
source data to build its global database of both attacks by non-state
armed groups, in addition to counter-terrorism operations and key
statements by state and non-state actors. The database enables users to
search by location, target, group (active and dormant), tactics and
casualty numbers in order to quickly obtain actionable intelligence
and/or data. The database includes over 250,000 events since 2009 and
tracks over 1,000 separate non-state armed groups worldwide.