Baseball Talk Philadelphia

April 28, 2016

Larry Andersen, everyone's favorite Phillies TV color analyst, has frequently, and proudly, dubbed Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera a potential future batting champion. Granted, Anderson is a notorious homer and wistful philosopher, but his praise may be on point-- if a tad misdirected.

Anderson is right to heap praise on the former Rule-5 gem, but it's been Herrera's ability to keep the bat on his shoulders that has placed the 23-year old amongst the best National League hitters in the early going of this 2016 season.

He's got 21 walks over just 91 plate appearances, which puts him just seven shy of his 28-walk total over 537 plate appearances last year, and behind only Paul Goldschmidt (23 BB) for the MLB lead.

March 31, 2016

A bullpen can make or break a team's chances at World Series glory. We saw it up close in 2008, as Brad Lidge converted every save opportunity that came his way, anchoring the Philadelphia Phillies to their first title in 28 years. They are vital to a team's success, but it's not always the closer that gets the girl, so to speak.

Wade Davis, middle reliever for Kansas City, became the first pitcher in baseball history with a sub-1.00 ERA over the span of two seasons (2014-15). Davis and Kelvin Herrerra, in 2014, became the first teammates to pitch at least 70 innings each without surrendering a home run since Lefty Williams and Reb Russell of the White Sox matched the feat back in 1918. Neither player was ever the primary closer, but they sure played a huge role in delivering KC consecutive league titles, culminating in a World Series championship last season.

By comparison, this Phillies bullpen is not that young, and not that promising. Truth be told, a lot has to go right to consider it respectable. Young, talented arms are coming up that could, someday, make this group dominant.

As for now, it's a work in progress, and that work in progress is previewed in part four of our "Phillies Season Outlook" series.

February 26, 2016

Every year, I take a look at the Philadelphia Phillies' odds of winning the World Series and compare it to other things that also have no realistic chance at happening.

This year, VegasInsider.com has them listed at 350-to-1 -- or, relatively the same odds that the Greater Philadelphia area will experience an earthquake (M2.0+) within the next seven days (355-1).

But, it's okay. Perk up. The temperatures are rising, summer is quickly approaching, and that vibrant green grass of Clearwater is just a preview of what's to come in our own backyards. Plus, the Fightins are still over 10 times more likely to win the World Series this year than you are of getting seriously injured mowing the lawn (3,623-1).

On to the numbers: you are... ...Twice as likely to be audited by the IRS this year (175-1), and 1.5 times more likely to have your identity stolen (200-1). ...Over 4.5 times more likely to get killed in a transportation accident in the next 12 months (77-1). ...Five times more likely to get bitten by a dog in the next year. ...14 times more likely to get hemorrhoids (25-1). ...More likely to give birth to a genius (250-1)... This figure shifts quite drastically if you're a dude. ...More likely to be born left-handed, lactose-intolerant, with a peanut allergy (256-1). ...Slightly more likely, as an American adult male, to stand under 5-foot, 6-inches tall, with a shellfish allergy. Ergo, your nickname might be "shrimp", but you can not eat them.

In sports:

BYU has a better shot at winning this year's college football championship (300-1)... Or men's college basketball championship (300-1).

Oklahoma is nearly five times as likely to win BOTH (75-1)!

Golfers Kiradech Aphibarnrat (250-1), Ollie Schniederjans (300-1), and Smylie Kaufman (300-1) all have better odds to win this year's Masters. It is also more likely that four hole-in-ones will occur during the tournament's four rounds of play (325-1).

If the season ended today, the Detroit Pistons would be almost twice as likely to win the NBA Draft Lottery (200-1).

Before the Super Bowl, the Broncos were listed as 3.5 times a better wager to win by 43 or more points (100-1).

It's almost five times more likely to see a player score a hat trick in any one single English Premier League game (76-1).

It's all relative. If you use the logical part of your brain, you know the Phillies have no chance. 350-to-1 is a very long shot. But, hell, we all went out and bought Powerball tickets, did we not? The Phillies are 834,286 times more likely to win the title!

June 08, 2015

Cole Hamels and Aaron Harang are both enjoying stellar seasons, and sub-3.00 ERAs, but have just a 9-10 combined record thus far. It's easy to ignore the record because there are so many other analytical tools at our disposal. Managers, of course, do not typically have the same luxury. Even a 12-year old skipper would have serious job security if the wins were piling up. Which is why Ryne Sandberg is royally screwed.

Sandberg, who is under contract through next year, has led the Phillies to just three wins in the last 10 contests, and a 22-36 record overall. That .379 win percentage is on pace to be the team's third-worst since 1946, and unless the Phils acquire-- free of charge--Mike Trout and/or ACTUAL angels in the outfield, chances of improvement seem slim.

From my viewpoint, it's silly to suppose that the Phillies will have a miraculous turnaround that salvages the jobs of Rhino and GM Ruben Amaro. The talent just isn't there, and all eyes need to be focused on the distant future. Amaro, who is under contract only through this season, would then seem to be the worst possible person to helm the team's front office, right? Actually, clues from a September Philadelphia Inquirer interview by Matt Gelb of Phils President, Pat Gillick, may indicate that Amaro is no longer calling any shots at all.

When asked whether he had considered replacing either the manager or GM prior to this season, Gillick responded, "They're under contract... So right now, there's no thought to replacing either one."

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Also, at the time, Gillick's "right now" was at the tail end of last season, and I can only imagine his patience has grown increasingly thin since. On roster moves, Gillick added, "I would say if it comes down to the end, I have part of the final say... if there are decisions that have to be made from a baseball standpoint, we're going to make those decisions."

Interesting the use of "we" here. As it becomes increasingly clear that Amaro may not have a place with the team next season, it also seems perfectly logical to consider that Amaro might currently be little more than a figure head GM. If the future does not include him, then he might might have lost his membership to the Phils' ever-exclusive Decision Makers Club. So, where does that leave Sandberg?

Rhino was Amaro's guy, and there's that weird unwritten rule about managers and coaches in pro sports not going into their "lame duck" final contractual season, so he, too, seems to just be keeping the seat warm for a 2016 replacement.

I understand that Sandberg, like any manager, is going to make questionable moves through out the course of a 162-game season, but I wonder sometimes if he's fully engaged. Just last week, he brought in LHP Elvis Araujo to face Giants left-handed hitters Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. Lefty-on-lefty is the agreed upon rule in these situations, except Crawford had been hitting .436 against southpaws on the season-- and then got it up to .450 after knocking in a pivotal run in San Francisco's eventual 5-4 victory.

What bothers me most is that he has yet to be ejected from a game this season. I would have liked to see him curse out an umpire and get tossed, if only to prove he still cares. Meanwhile, we've got a coach in Lehigh who is capable of going to zero-to-Bowa in 2 seconds flat.

So, if Ryne Sandberg doesn't want to throw himself out, the Phillies front office is going to have to do it for him. I'm guessing it will ultimately, and probably at season's end, be Pat Gillick delivering that message.

May 30, 2015

GM Ruben Amaro blasted Phillies fans earlier this week, reminding us all who is primarily to blame for the Phillies' current state of affairs. Ryne Sandberg surely deserves to be on a hot seat all his own, but the spotlight is scorching right now in Amaro's direction. I'll borrow a line from JK Simmons' Oscar-winning performance in last year's "Whiplash":

"Now, either you are deliberately playing out of tune and sabotaging my band, or you don't know you're out of tune, which I'm afraid is even worse"

To lash out at the fans in defense of the moves he's made proves he's either ignorant of his own incompetence... Or he's deliberately sabotaging the team . I know, I know-- this isn't a movie, and Amaro is doing his best. As such, real life offers few guarantees for happy endings, and Amaro should probably answer for the mistakes that he's made come season's end. One of those mistakes may have been the hiring of Ryne Sandberg.

May 01, 2015

Full disclosure: I am a Charlie Manuel guy. He wrote the foreword for my book, but he also helmed the only championship team I ever saw for Philadelphia (apologies, '08 Philly Soul). While his maneuvers on the field were, at times, befuddling, his leadership qualities and locker room presence were both legendary.

Cole Hamels once remarked that Manuel was a "father figure" to him and other players, and that's exactly what that team needed. Manuel was the manager the 2008 team needed and deserved, nurturing his premiere veteran talent and, really, just staying out of the way. After all, baseball is much more one-on-one instinctual response than X's and O's. Like any good father, he always seemed to know best despite some disagreeable decisions. One could argue the moves he made, but back-to-back World Series appearances have surely made Manuel one proud papa.

Also, Manuel is a great man, philanthropist, ideologist, and notorious lover of fine meats and artisanal cheeses.

Ok, fine. I'm laying it on pretty thick. But the meats and cheeses part feels accurate. It's not than I miss him, per se, but I miss championship Phillies baseball.

The product on the field is disastrous right now, and if I am to give credit to Manuel for heading all those great playoff teams of the last decade, I need to come down hard on Ryne Sandberg for captaining this steaming pile of Schmitters.

Currently, the Phillies are 10th (of 15) in the league in ERA (4.03) 13th in fielding percentage (.976) and dead last in batting average (.223). Meanwhile, just for fun, Cole Hamels' batting average in 2008 was .224. So, the Phils are failing pretty spectacularly in every facet of the game. You can blame the pitchers for poor outings, the hitters for bad performances at the plate and in the field, or you can blame the manager for everything.

Of course, GM Ruben Amaro is the architect of this stinker, but it's alarming how little Sandberg is getting out of his players. Six players on the active roster are currently batting below .200, among them, two of the greatest Phillies ever at their respective positions in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

On the mound thus far, the Phils are actually performing very well. That's at least one feather in Sandberg's cap. The top three starters-- Hamels, Aaron Harang, and Jerome Williams-- have a combined 3.10 ERA, while the team's top three relievers-- Jonathan Papelbon, Ken Giles, and Jeanmar Gomez-- have just a 1.32 ERA between them. Knowing when to pull a pitcher and who to bring in is the most crucial decision a manager can make.

If you've got Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee all in their prime, these decisions might be made a tad easier. Sandberg doesn't have that luxury, so it's easy to second guess his calls to the bullpen. But the numbers are on his side here as well. The Phillies have the second-best aLI (Average Leverage Index) in the NL at .893. This figure measures the approximated pressure faced by the relief staff, and any number below 1.000 is considered above average.

So, Sandberg seems to be putting his guys in a good position to perform well. This doesn't totally factor in whether he's pulling the plug too early or too late on his starters, or if he's bringing the right relief pitchers into the game for each situation. There are no stats for that.

Ultimately, this team needs to score more runs. That is the primary problem. Blame Sandberg, blame Amaro, whatever. In reality, Charlie Manuel would not be able to salvage this mess. This is not a winning baseball team. But is Sandberg doing everything he can to get the most out of his players? Does he have that fatherly intangible that was so apparent in his predecessor's repertoire?

That is what I'll try to examine every in week in Sizing up Sandberg. If he makes it to next week...

April 18, 2015

My goal here is to convince you that the Pirates are the perfect trade partner for the Phillies, in Ruben Amaro's apparent quest to unload Ace-of-Staff Cole Hamels. It's just going to take a while to get there. Stick with me. Deep breath...

I had a pessimistic preseason projection of 84 wins for the Pirates this season. At 3-6 in the early going, it's way too soon to say I'm right to be sheepish about Pittsburgh's chances, but the front office should be concerned.

A little history-- The Pirates, famously, endured 20-straight losing seasons from 1993-2012. Each of the last nine years of that stretch, the team ranked either last, or second-to-last in attendance in the National League. How bad is that? Other than a dead-last attendance mark in 1997, the Phillies have never had a single instance of attendance numbers that low in its entire history at Citizens Bank Park, or Veterans Stadium.

April 07, 2015

From professional handicapper to casual fan, the overwhelming consensus among pro sports prognosticators is that the Phillies are going to stink this year. Of course, the same was said about the 1993 Phils team, which defiantly over achieved despite even heavier odds stacked against it.

Can lightning strike the same bottle twice?

It's possible!

Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, and a promising band of young bullpen arms are the reliable ones of the group (Opening Day notwithstanding). And maybe that's a strong enough base to keep this Jenga tower standing long enough to pull off a miracle.

The Royals won 86 games in 2013 with an eerily similar rotation to the Phils' current unit. They batted just .260 as a team, and no one in KC blue hit more than 20 home runs that year.

There are precedents for hope-- though, Vegas might disagree.

The Phillies currently have, by far, the longest odds to win the World Series, set at 500-1, according to Vegasinsider.com. Considering the growth of parity in today's game, this number seems profound.

Despite my optimistic disposition, and earnest hope that our Fightin' Phils can at least make things interesting this season, I thought it might be fun to see what, statistically, is more likely to occur this season than a parade down Broad Street...

You are six times more likely to die in an automobile accident (84-1).

It is almost four times more likely for a thoroughbred to win the Triple Crown this year (130-1).

The Floyd Mayweather- Manny Pacquiao fight is 25 times more likely to end in a draw (20-1)

Dating a millionaire is a safer proposition (215-1).

It is four times more likely that zero touchdowns will be scored in next year's Super Bowl (125-1).

PGA Pro Darren Clarke is as likely to win the Masters this weekend (500-1), despite registering just four top-25 finishes over the past nine seasons.

Rutgers is as likely to win next year's College Football FBS Championship (500-1).

You are more likely to die of a heart attack this year (265-1).

Forget one-- Getting TWO books on the New York Times Best Seller List carries better odds (440-1).

It is almost twice as likely to be dealt a five-card straight in your very first hand of poker (254-1).

The likelihood that California, over the next year, will suffer the highest rated earthquake in its recorded history-- 8.0 or higher-- is actually greater... Than the Phillies winning this season's World Series (428-1).