Anybody who has spoken to me for more than five minutes knows that I'm a dyed-in-the-wool contrarian. Politics, social conventions, even horse picks, you name it, and I go against common sentiment. Not the case with the 137th Kentucky Derby. DIALED IN has it all: a classic pedigree, a stout closing kick, a trainer who's been around the block, and a rider who would be Mr. Churchill Downs if not for that Calvin guy. The Florida Derby often serves as the key prep for the Run to the Roses, having produced winners Barbaro and Big Brown in recent years, and Quality Road may well have taken the 2009 edition in the slop. He's limited only by his short-distance workouts, all of which were conducted in Florida and not on the home track. MUCHO MACHO MAN is a half brother to Macho Again, a horse who was seen on the 2008 Triple Crown trail and won a Grade 1 at age four. Baby brother finished a close third behind Pants on Fire and Nehro (both here today) in the Louisiana Derby. I'm heartened by his seven furlong work in the slop on 4/24, and can steal this race if the favorite hasn't improved since finding the winners' circle in Miami. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE has matured very nicely since debuting at the end of January. You'll hear a lot of talk about how him not having raced at the age of two hurts his chances (something every Derby winner in the 20th and 21st centuries have done), but that's academic here. His speed figures have gotten better with each try, and he's worked well since then in the capable hands of his Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. SANTIVA, like so many other horses here today, has a resume with many turf and synthetic races, but unlike his peers, has established himself as a dirt contender, claiming victory in a Grade 2 race over this strip last November. He ran 9th in the Bluegrass three weeks ago, but that was over Keeneland's Polytrack, and is not to be considered when weighing this guy's chances.

"and yes, an autistic kid is right." - MCA

"I didn't threaten your sister. It would be the time of her life. fucking unicorns would come out of the sky and start singing and shit." - B Luc to Basket

Because his horse will be overbet on the name recognition. Borel may have won three of the last four Derbies, but one of those (Mine That Bird) came in an absolute fluke of a race. TWICE THE APPEAL is not a special horse. He had to drop into the claiming ranks to break his maiden, and then went on to run in Arizona and New Mexico, which are not major league horse racing venues. While he did win his Grade 3 prep, his speed figures are low, and he was able to run down a 45 second 1/2 mile to get the win. There's some speedballs in this Derby, but it will take Calvin's very best for him to take it...and you're not going to get odds that are fair for that horse.

"and yes, an autistic kid is right." - MCA

"I didn't threaten your sister. It would be the time of her life. fucking unicorns would come out of the sky and start singing and shit." - B Luc to Basket