Saturday, 28 April 2012

Mark Sept. 5, 6 and 7 on your calendars. That is when Toronto Mayor Rob Ford will be in court regarding his breach of a conflict of interest law. If the judge finds against him, he will be removed from office and banned from running for public office for 7 years.

Toronto StarMayor Rob Ford will be in court in early September refuting a conflict of interest allegation that, if proven, would force him from office.
Lawyer Clayton Ruby, representing a Toronto resident who filed the complaint, announced Friday that Superior Court Justice Charles Hackland will hear the case Sept. 5, 6 and 7.

Friday, 27 April 2012

Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 - sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 - sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent events in Parliament.

Forum poll findings
The findings here are that the NDP is now in the lead, and Tom Mulcair's popularity has shot up.
Comparison between March 30 and April 25 Forum Polls:

The significant finding here in the Forum results is that Mulcair's popularity has surged ahead of the other leaders. Also, this is the first poll showing the NDP to take the lead with more than a 2 point spread. (From March 18 to April 18, 7 polls (Environics, Forum, Harris-Decima, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos) all had the NDP and Conservatives either tied or within 2 points of each other (except the Nanos poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by 3)).

This Forum poll also shows the NDP moving into a minority government position:
Seat projections from this poll compared to seats won at election time:

Party - Election - April 25, 2012

NDP - 103 - 133 (forming a minority government)

Con - 166 - 118
Lib - 34 - 54
Bloc - 4 - 2
Green - 1 - 1

Nanos poll findings
The previous Nanos poll was at the end of Feb - a time when the NDP had their interim leader Nycole Turmel. During this period the Liberals were more popular than the NDP. The findings here show that the NDP are on the rise, the Liberals have dropped back closer to their election-level popularity and that the Conservatives support remains about the same (although down from their election level of 40%). The significant findings in the Nanos poll are the drops in ratings for Stephen Harper in trustworthiness, competency and vision for Canada.

In these specific Nanos leadership ratings we can see that Canadians' confidence in Harper has plummeted, dropped significantly for Rae, and people have much more confidence in Mulcair than Turmel as leader of the NDP.

The Federal NDP are doing well in Quebec and improving in Ontario.
The big story here is not how well they are doing in Quebec as that has been known since the end of March (there have been a number of polls showing that they are, by far, back on top in Quebec since the convention March 24th), but how well they are doing in Ontario compared to election time.

The general trend here is that the Conservatives are steadily dropping, the Liberals have stayed about the same, while the NDP has continued the trend of increasing support that started just before the election. This is huge for the NDP as Ontario has so many seats, and for the NDP to become the next government, they will need to significantly increase their seats here. If they can continue this trend of increasing support in Ontario over the next 3 years, we will see an NDP government in 2015.

Great post by Kirbycairo. Click the link above to read the whole thing.

I've never really understood the push for a merger either. Here we have 2 very different political parties - very different views, policies, ideals and values. I think those all for it from the Liberal side of things see it as a way to grow the Liberal party back up, and destroy the NDP. No other explanation makes much sense. The NDP was a thorn in the backside of the Liberals for so long, but now the NDP is the rising star and the Liberals are in the dog house. The Liberals are pissed and they want back in the sand box. What better way than to cheat their way in by promoting merging with a party who they claim to be like, but are so unlike in practice.

Those who claim they would like to see a merger between the NDP and the Liberals for the purpose of defeating the Harper Conservatives are very short-sighted. You can't run a successful government solely on a negative aspect. There have to be other goals besides defeating an enemy. And the goals of the NDP and the Liberals differ almost as much as the NDP and the Conservatives. So, a merger between the NDP and the Liberals would never succeed in the long run.

Considering the record of the Liberals over the past 5 years, you would think there would be more talk of a merger between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

Friday, 13 April 2012

Frustrated with Harper and his government of looters in suits lying to us and taking our money to spend on jets that don't work and jails we don't need, and cheating to get elected? Take your frustrations out at Smack Stephen Harper!

Thursday, 12 April 2012

Centa says the questions of whether Ford improperly took funding from
his family company and overspent his campaign limit are important to
the provincial Municipal Elections Act, and to democracy itself.“Mr. Ford was, and is, represented by
excellent counsel and we think the interests of justice are best served
when both parties are represented by capable counsel to . . . allow the
court to make the best decision possible.”Ruby cites the same pro bono principle but is more pointed when it comes to Ford’s conduct.“I think (Ford) is doing bad, bad
things,” Ruby said. “It’s not a left-right thing . . . He came in as a
bully determined to demonize anyone who disagrees with him, and is a
person whose approach to governance is not what I think is in the
Canadian public interest.“If Mayor Ford gets a pass, for
whatever reason he may advance, why would everyone not get a pass, and
then integrity doesn’t have the importance that the legislation of
Ontario placed on it.” - From the Toronto Star: Mayor Rob Ford vs the lawyers

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Toronto Star: New NDP TV ad emphasizes continuity over change“Throughout his public life, Tom Mulcair has a proven track-record of
fighting for people,” said NDP National Director Chantal Vallerand in a
statement. “These ads will help reach out to all those Canadians who
have been abandoned by the Conservative government. Our message is quite
simply that unlike Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair will fight for you.”

Saturday, 7 April 2012

A Léger Marketing poll for The Gazette and Le Devoir April 2-4 shows the following support among decided voters:
NDP 33%
Conservatives 32%
Liberals 19%
Green 8%
[Bloc not listed but most likely about 6-7% nationally]

“We see that support for the Conservatives is ... down nearly eight
points since the last election,” he said. “So it’s a fairly significant
drop for them.”

The Conservatives’ tumble began a couple of months
ago, he said, adding the timing coincides with public discontent over
such things as revelations of fraudulent robocalls pretending to come
from Elections Canada and, just this week, revelations of a major cost
overrun in the F-35 fighter jet program that was kept quiet before the
last election.

...

The NDP finds its strongest support in three regions: Quebec, the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia.

...

Not only has support for the Conservatives dropped nationally since
last year’s election victory, the Léger poll also finds that support for
the NDP in Quebec has rebounded “in spectacular fashion” since January –
beyond even its 2011 election results – since the party chose Quebec MP
Thomas Mulcair as its new leader in late March. Support for the party
has shot up 19 points since January, Dallaire said.

The NDP scores
47 per cent of support in Quebec in this poll, which is higher than the
party’s 42.9 per cent share of the vote in the province in the 2011
election.

The NDP are leading in BC (44%), Quebec (39%), and Atlantic Canada (36%). The 2 regions that the NDP lead in all three polls are BC and Quebec.

Some other numbers of note from the poll:

The NDP has surged back in front in Quebec. Here, they stand at 39%,
to 24% for the BQ, 14% for the Liberals, 14% for the Conservatives, and
8% for the Greens.

The Conservatives are well in front in Ontario. The Conservatives
stand at 41%, to 26% for the NDP, 24% for the Liberals, and 8% for the
Greens.

The NDP holds a strong lead in BC. Here, they stand at 44%, to 30% for
the Conservatives, 13% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.

The Conservatives remain in front on the Prairies. In Manitoba and
Saskatchewan, they stand at 45%, to 34% for the NDP, 13% for the
Liberals, and 7% for the Greens. In Alberta the Conservatives are at
54%, to 19% for the NDP, 16% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.

In Atlantic Canada, the NDP stands at 36%, to 30% for the Conservatives, 30% for the Liberals, and 3% for the Greens.

All of these polls show an overall trend when compared to the election: the Conservatives loosing ground, the NDP gaining ground, the Liberals stagnating and the Bloc and Green bouncing back slightly.

The Environics poll from March 6-18, 2012, had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 30% each (a drop of 10% for the Conservatives). The Liberals were at 20%

The Forum poll from March 26-27, 2012 - just after Mulcair's first couple of days in Parliament as party leader , had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 35% each and the Liberals at 19% (a drop of 3% for the Conservatives, a rise of 7% for the NDP and a drop of 6% for the Liberals, since the last Forum poll a month ago).

More details on the recent Forum poll with comparisons to their previous poll:

26% say they are more likely to vote for the NDP now that Thomas Mulcair is the party leader. This includes 23% Liberal supporters, 8% Green party supporters, 40% Bloc supporters and 5% Conservative supporters.

What is MMP?

MMP stands for Mixed Member Proportional.

It is a new electoral system proposed for Ontario. If you are voting in the upcoming Ontario Provincial Election on Oct 10, 2007, There will be a referendum question asking if you want to keep the current system or change to use MMP.

With the proposed MMP in Ontario, you will vote for a local candidate and a party - it's that simple.

Then, when the votes are all tallied, if a party has proportionally less seats than the percentage of the overall vote they received, they get additional general party seats known as List seats. So, in the end, the number of seats a party has in parliament, is directly proportional to the percentage of votes they received.

Example: If party A received 40% of the vote, then they get 40% of the seats.