Tennessee’s Safest Cities

See Which Tennessee Cities Made the List

Based on a population of at least 30,000

Methodology: We use a variety of factors to determine these rankings. To see our full methodology, click here.

If you have an appreciation for country music, you may just love Tennessee. The State Capitol, Nashville, is known as “Music City.” Bluegrass music also originated in northeastern Tennessee, in a city called Bristol. The state is filled with great culture, wonderful dining experiences, and historical locales. In addition to all that it has to offer, Tennessee has plenty of safe and beautiful cities for those considering to visit or relocate there.

Of the 25 safest cities in Tennessee, the top 10 on this list have a Safety Score of at least 80. The safer cities in the state are in the suburban areas as expected. For example, Brentwood, which is the safest city in the state with a safety score of 89.06, is known for its rolling hills and vast land. It is also one of the wealthiest regions in the state. The median household income in Brentwood was close to $140,000 in 2014. Families raising kids would do well here because the high schools in the area are ranked among the highest in the state! Not only would children stay safe, they would also receive quality education.

Some of the other safest cities in Tennessee that made it high up on the list include Spring Hill (86.8), Germantown (86.71), Gallatin (85.77), and Franklin (84.62). Spring Hill is only 30 miles south from Nashville, one of the most populated cities in the state. Those who want to stay in a safer area but be able to easily get to the metropolitan regions would benefit from staying here. The population of Spring Hill in 2014 was 34,269. So again, it’s a relatively small town where people most likely keep to themselves, which may contribute to its higher safety score.

The greater Memphis metropolitan area is not as safe, but is the largest city in Tennessee. Surprisingly though, Memphis was at the bottom of our list of top 25 safest cities, with a score of 49.95. It is not the most impressive score, but it’s important to keep in mind that the population here is significantly larger than the safer areas. In 2014, Memphis had a population of over 1.3 million! The higher the foot traffic, the higher the chances of crime and other safety concerns. Luckily, commuting in the state isn’t too bad and one can always choose to live in a neighboring area that’s safer and drive into the city when needed.

Safest Cities: The Methodology

Overview

This ranking calculates a Safety Score for major cities in the US. The higher the Safety Score, the safer data shows the city to be.

We look at several different factors when assigning a Safety Score to a city. First and foremost is the FBI’s latest report of how many and what types of crimes occurred in each city over a single year. The city’s crime trends are also considered; in other words, cities where crime is on the decline are given a higher Safety Score and vice-versa. We also look at the number of law enforcement officers compared to the population.

Finally, demographic metrics that are correlated to crime have a small impact on Safety Score. These include metrics such as population density, population trends, unemployment rate, median income, education level, etc.

About the Data

FBI Data

The FBI’s UCR (Uniform Crime Reporting) program has existed since the 1920s, and is the most comprehensive source of crime statistics. Every year, data on crime occurrences is collected from the nation’s law enforcement agencies. Data is not included if a given city’s law enforcement agency does not follow UCR’s reporting guidelines.

Crime is reported in two categories, violent crime and property crime. Violent crime includes murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Property crime includes burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. (Arson data is limited, therefore is not included in our Safety Score).

Crimes are reported both as raw numbers and as occurrences per 100,000 residents. The occurrences per 100,000 residents are used in our analysis. This is because a large city such as New York City will have more crime occurrences simply because it has such a large population. The process of dividing per 100,000 residents allows for fairer comparison among cities of different sizes.

The FBI UCR data also includes, for many cities, a count of total law enforcement employees, both officers and civilians.

The most recent data available from FBI UCR is for calendar year 2015. We have compared to each city’s 2014 data to analyze whether violent crime and property crime are rising or declining.

Census Data

Demographic data is available from the US Census, last conducted in 2010. This data is more readily available by MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) than by city. For example, New York City itself is considered a city, while the New York City Metropolitan Statistical Area encompasses additional cities such as Newark, New Jersey and Jersey City, New Jersey.

Where possible, each city in the rankings was matched to its appropriate MSA.

Calculating the Safety Score

Preparing the Data

The FBI UCR statistics are available online for public download. We obtained a copy of the 2015 data. Cities without 2015 data, due to incomplete data or not following UCR’s guidelines, are not given a Safety Score.

For the national rankings, cities with a population under 50,000 are not considered. This results in a digestible national list of safe cities and reduces the risk of outlier statistics.

Next, the 2015 data is combined with other datasets. The 2014 UCR crime statistics and the 2015 number of full time law enforcement are also provided by the FBI. If 2014 data or law enforcement data are missing, those cities are given a neutral, or average, value for these factors rather than being removed from the ranking. Neutral values are also given for crime trends in some cases where a city’s reporting statistics changed, and 2014 data cannot be fairly compared to 2015 data.

Demographic data comes from the US Census and is presented by Metropolitan Statistical Area. Each city must be matched to its associated MSA. In some cases, a city may be associated with an MSA across a state line. For example, Newark, New Jersey is associated with the New York City MSA.

Safety Score Formula

For each city, a crime score is calculated, and the Safety Score is the reciprocal of the crime score. In plain English, the crime score is based on the combination of occurrences (per 100,000) of the seven crimes, the officer-to-population ratio, violent crime trend, property crime trend, and six demographic factors.

However, each of these factors is not given equal consideration. Each factor listed above is given a weight, with a weight of 100% contributing most to the city’s crime score. The formula and table below show how much weight each factor is given.

Crime Score =

X1A­1 + X2A­2 + X3A­3 + X4A­4 + X5A­5 + X6A­6 + X7A­7 + …

Y1B­1 + Y2B2 + Y3B3 + …

- Z1C1 – Z2C2 + Z3C3 + Z4C4 – Z5C­5 – Z6C­6

Variables

Factor

Weight

X­1

A1

Murder Rate

100%

X­2

A2

Rape Rate

86%

X­3

A3

Robbery Rate

90%

X­4

A4

Assault Rate

88%

X­5

A5

Burglary Rate

74%

X­6

A6

Larceny Rate

80%

X­7

A7

Vehicle Theft Rate

62%

Y­1

B1

Population : Officer

50%

Y­2

B2

Violent Crime % Change

50%

Y­3

B3

Property Crime % Change

40%

Z­1

C1

Pop Density

10%

Z­2

C2

% Pop Change

10%

Z­3

C3

% Youth Population (15-24)

5%

Z­4

C4

Unemployment

5%

Z­5

C5

Median Income

10%

Z6

C6

Education Level

5%

Crime occurrences are treated as the most serious (highly weighted) factors. Weights are between 100% and 60%. Weights are determined by a combination of seriousness (as determined by FBI) and society’s fear (as determined by a large 2016 study by Chapman University). See the Appendix for more details.

Officer to Population ratio and crime trends are given medium weights.

If a city doesn't report either their 2014 data or their number of law enforcement, that city gets a neutral value for officer to population ratio and crime trends. Neutral values are 0% for crime trend and 435 (the national average) for population-to-officer ratio. This method is intended to avoid removing cities from the dataset for not having these metrics available, while at the same time not giving an unfair advantage or disadvantage on Safety Score. Essentially these cities are scored based on only 2015 data and Census data.

Demographic factors are given low weights. These are weighted low because data is available only at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level and not at the individual city level.

Finally, the crime score is flipped and scaled from 0 to 100. In other words, the city with the highest crime score is assigned a Safety Score of 0 and the lowest crime score is assigned a Safety Score of 100. This makes the Safety Scores more understandable.

State Level Rankings

Some less populous states have only one, or even zero, cities appearing in the national rankings. For the state level rankings, the population threshold was relaxed so that at least 25 cities would be ranked per state. The rest of the methodology is the same as for the national rankings.

Appendix

The following table shows how the seven types of crimes are ranked by seriousness and by fear. The rankings are then “flipped” or transposed so that the most serious gets the highest value. The transposed values are multiplied. Then, this combined score is normalized and fit within 100% to 80% for the violent crimes and 60% to 80% for the property crimes.

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