THE BANKERS REAL THREAT: Physical Silver Bar & Coin Demand

The banking cartel may not realize it, but they woke up a sleeping giant… physical silver investment demand. Before the collapse of the U.S. Housing and Investment Banking Industries, there was very little global demand for physical silver bars and coins.

This all changed in 2008, when the world faced a total collapse of the financial and economic system. Things were really rough in the broader markets as the Dow Jones average fell from a high of 14,164 in 2007 to a low of 6,547 in 2009 — a staggering 54% decline in just a little more than a year and a half.

If we look at the chart below, we can see just how much physical silver bar and coin demand increased in 2008. According to figures reported by the World Silver Survey and released on the Silver Institute’s website, 2008 physical silver bar and coin demand reached an impressive 188 million ounces, up more than three times the 2007 figure of 51 million oz.

Not only did overall physical silver bar and coin demand pick up significantly in 2008, so did its percentage compared to industrial usage. In 2007, physical silver bullion demand was only 9% of the total usage in industrial applications. Investors purchased 51 million oz of physical silver bullion while global industrial applications consumed 540 million oz that year.

However in 2008, this physical silver investment to industrial usage ratio increased nearly four times to 34%. From 2004 to 2007, investors purchased approximately one ounce of physical silver for every 10 ounces consumed by industrial applications. Then in the following year, investors bought 3.4 ounces of physical silver for every 10 ounces used by the industrial sector.

You will notice that this ratio declined in 2009 (19%), but started to rise again over the next several years. This ratio fell again in 2012 (26%) as investors became complacent due to the fact that silver prices and global economic conditions remained relatively stable. While it’s true the price of silver fluctuated in 2012, it ended the year at nearly the same level at where it started.

It wasn’t until the huge take-down in the price of gold and silver in 2013, did demand for physical silver bar and coin pick up in a big way. Not only did demand for physical bars and coins set a new record in 2013 at 246 million oz, it accounted for 46% of global industrial silver consumption.

Which means, investors purchased nearly 5 ounces of physical silver for every 10 ounces used by industrial applications in 2013. This put a severe strain on annual supply as the world suffered a 103 million oz physical structural deficit for the year — according to data from the Silver institute found at the link above.

Let’s compare two 4-year periods:

2004-2007 Total Silver Demand

Physical Bar & Coin = 204 million oz

Industrial Applications = 1,950 million oz

Bar & Coin vs Industrial Ratio = 10%

2010-2013 Total Silver Demand

Physical Bar & Coin = 744 million oz

Industrial Applications = 2,208 million oz

Bar & Coin vs Industrial Ratio = 34%

We can clearly see the difference in physical silver demand before and after the 2008 financial and economic collapse. Investors bought more than three times as much silver in the past four years (744 million oz), compared to the 2004-2007 time period (204 million oz). Furthermore, the was more physical silver buying in 2013 than the combined total from 2004 to 2007.

Also, investors purchased an average of 3.4 ounces of physical silver bar and coin from 2010 to 2013 for every 10 ounces of industrial applications (34% ratio). This is also more than three times the ratio shown from 2004 to 2007 (10%).

There continues to be a great deal of analysis from the MSM and alternative sources on how future industrial silver demand will impact price. To me… it’s PURE BOLLOCKS. If you look at that chart above one more time, you will see that overall industrial demand has been relatively flat since 2008. Matter-a-fact, total silver industrial demand in 2013 was 536 million oz, less than the 540 million oz reported in 2007.

So, even after the Fed and Central Banks flooded the world with monetary liquidity over the past five years, industrial silver demand in 2013 was actually lower than 2007 — the year before the collapse of the U.S. housing and investment banking industries.

Which begs the question… who really cares about industrial demand, when the real factor is the huge increase of physical silver bar and coin purchases. Global physical silver investment demand in 2013 was 246 million oz compared to 51 million oz in 2007 — five times greater.

So what do you think impacted the silver price more over the last five years, industrial demand or physical investment demand? If you agree that it was the latter, than you probably don’t suffer from brain damage.

The Banking Cartel understands the role of silver and gold as money. It is for that very reason that the price of each are FIXED on a daily basis by a handful of these fine upstanding banking institutions.

Investors who are currently becoming bearish on their silver holdings may have good reason as the price is down considerably over the past few years. However, the global economic and financial system went into the emergency room in 2008, and have never come out (line stole from Roger Boyd’s presentation).

If you thought times were rough in 2008 & 2009, just wait until things really fall apart this time. I can just see it. Sentiment will change from, “Gosh investing in silver has been a real bummer”, to “Crap… I have all this fiat money, but there’s no physical silver available whatsoever.”

This is the IRONY OF LIFE and the FICKLE NATURE of the investing public.

You have been warned.

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Correct. Silver is such a tiny market that any small increase in demand by Main Street Investors would totally overwhelm the market… and price. Which is the very reason it’s important continue DUMBING DOWN THE MASSES. Bankers rather have investors holding onto worthless paper assets than move into physical gold and silver.

If demand soars like it did in 1980, the market operators will freeze everything. That was how they brought down the Hunt brothers. Unallocated metal doesn’t exist in the first place, of course, but those who think they have allocated bullion will find out the hard way that it too can be rehypothocated as part of a bail-in.

The market operators may try to freeze everything, however silver is now a global market. Back in 1980, it was mostly run by the Western Institutions. A great deal of trading volume is moving EAST and there are exchanges that will trade only physical metal… not leverage.

Things will get very interesting in the next few years… and the WEST will be left out in the dark.

We are talking physical here. So with all this PHYSICAL demand why has the price gone nowhere over the last 5 years? It’s not like the central banks of the world have stockpiles they can use to flood the market with, or rehypothocate. Paper and physical should have had a major disconnect years ago…………..What gives?

It isn’t the central banks, who quit silver decades ago and don’t care about it anymore. It is JPMorganChase, HSBC, and others who short the market because they can. (They will never be prosecuted.) If demand wipes out existing stockpiles, then the banksters will short sell to cover their previous short selling, then suddenly unload on the gullible hedge funds run by technical analysts. The hedge funds will then take the losses as the price whiplashes the other way.

I agree that there is no shortage of silver and won’t be as long as the base-metal mines keep dumping it on the market as a byproduct. The majority of new-mined silver is as a byproduct, so the mines don’t care what they get for it.

I am in the oil business and we do the same thing with byproduct natural gas that comes from conventional oil. In fact, in most cases we just burn the gas in an electrical generator or flare it because it costs more to ship it than the return.

It must be remembered that investment silver is petty cash to the banksters. Compare physical bullion markets to foreign currency trading or black-pool derivatives.

Again, you are falling VICTIM to the Delusion of Western Establishment Control. The Chinese and other BRIC countries allow the western financial institutions to believe they have control for a while. We must remember, India imported a record amount of silver in 2013. Sure, their Govt is still putting pressure on Gold buying, but this doesn’t stop their citizens from smuggling a record amount of gold into the country.

Also, you need to stop thinking in such petty terms such as By-product silver. 1 billion oz annual silver supply including scrap equates to 1/6 of an ounce for everyone on the planet.. not including industrial demand. Compare this to the $100 Trillion in propped up paper assets that have no real future. And the future is now here.

The Chinese, Russians and Indians are doing more to take silver and gold off the market than anyone else on the planet, in which the WESTERN BANKERS CAN’T DO A DAMN THING ABOUT IT.

You’re SO correct, Steve, and what I can’t wrap my head around is WHY? Is it not true that at the current rate of consumption vs the quality of ore mined in context with EROI plummeting, the US Geological Survey contends that Silver will be EXTINCT by 2020? I don’t buy that, but I do buy total extinction by 2030, which means that in just five years,by 2020, when we are consuming over 2Bn oz/year and mining only 910M oz, the scrap ‘junk silver, of which we have about 16Bn oz and it’s purity ranges from 40%-90%, will have to cover over 1BN oz shortage, then by 2024, a 1.5Bn oz shortage, etc, etc. until we’re FLAT OUT. During the years from 2015-2020,the markets MUST bifurcate,and doesn’t there come a point when enough people realize thtthe FED is the worlds largest Ponzi Scheme stuck in abject hopelessness b/c it’s former Ponzies, the UST buyers, are sending US Treasury Bonds back at a rate of over $100Bn/month thru a cute outfit in Belgium called EuroClear!, and it has been for over 18 months, all as a collective de-dollarization of the world! Do you think that the WEST, i.e. the LMBA and COMEX has lived by obfuscating the value of REAL Money and Currency and will go down dying with this EcoPolitical chimera? We’ve practically GIVEN China and India, two of the countries on Earth that haven’t been corrupted by decades of western decadent spending using AMEX, Mastercard, DEBIT Cards and Cash, which are all just computer coded 1’s and 0’s orgreen paper that we’ve been born to believe has inherent value as legal tender all over the globe, when Fiat Currency is really at it’s simplest form just a function of trust in one’s Government as Fiat is literally Latin for Force. Russia I’m told has always had north of 20,000 tons of Gold,going back well over 125 years, but it is interesting to note that a new League of Nations will be announcing itself next September, and it includes China, India, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia, and all the other STAN countries like Tajikistan, Kurdistan, Turkmenistan, Waziristan, Uzbekistan, and I believe there’s one more,all are former elements of the USSR. The main point of THESE particular countries coming together is that they represent exactly 50%, or 1/2 of the globe’s population, and thus, they easily carry with them the needed clout for ‘Critical Mass, and the Paradigm Shift you spoke of in one of your earlier papers! All these countries want to see the US take it in the chin for well over forty years of the USA getting it’s ‘juice’ in every transaction (much llke the WORLDS MOB) between all countries of the world trading with each other, with the US not even present you bet your ass they always got their cut when Germany purchased electronics in the early 1980’s from Japan, all b/c we had control of worlds FIAT system via the PetroDollar, and that day is now over, and has been for a few years. I just read an article by Shah Gilani in his daily newsletter Wall Streets Insights and Indictments and it was very interesting. It was talking about how a trusted source of his, a DHS employee, disclosed to him that the REAL REASON that Ammo is so much more expensive now than four-five years ago is because the IRS is buying BILLIONS upon BILLIONS of rounds of the most popular rounds, PLUS BILLIONS of cop killing Hollow Point Ammo, making Gun shops run out early and able to charge up to 300% more for those same bullets. WHY? Apparently, the DHS knows the disparity between the haves and have nots and is anticipating that the USD, or $1, will maybe be worth $0.05-0.10 by 2016, and the countrywill see the rioting in Ferguson seem like a “Hands Across America”event! ANYWHERE FROM 16 TO 28 MONTHS AWAY THE US DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IS PREPARING FOR A WORTHLESS DOLLAR as the DHS agent, whom Shah implicitly trusts, is getting ready for the DEATH of America and the USA becoming a Banana Republic! This is what I don’t understandf, Steve. Why would we put gold @firesale prices, enough for china to reportedly import 2680 tons last year, A NUMBER I’M TOLD TO DOUBLE TO GET AN ACCURATE PICTURE OF WHAT THEY TRULY ACQUIRED DURING FYE2013. HOW COULD THE FED AND IT”S BOSS THE BIS BE STUPID ENOUGH TO HAVE LET FRB TO OCCUR WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A FIXED SUPPLY OF PRECIOUS METALS, A FACT THAT I KNOW EXISTED SINCE AT LEAST THE EARLY 1990’S! ARE WE THAT IGNORANT AND BONEHEADED TO NOT SEE THAT THE STRENGTH OF A CURRENCIES MARROW COMES FROM THE AMOUNT OF GOLD/SILVER/PGM’s IT OWNS, AND ON THAT POINT, HOW S IT POSSIBLE WE CAN PURPORT TO HAVE 25.9% OF THE WORLDS GOLD, OR 8,133 TONNES. WE’VE CLAIMED THAT NUMBER OF TONES FOR DECADES NOW, TOTALLY UNCHANGED, YET THERE HAVE BEEN ENORMOUS DISCOVERIES OF GOLD OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE OVER 7BN OZ OF ABOVE GROUNG AU SUPPLY VS BARELY 1BN OZ OF ABOVE AG SUPPLY, YET AS HAS BEEN STATED,THE GSR IT AT A RIDICULOUS 67! And we sold allocated Gold owned by multi generational high 8 figure, 9 figure, and 10 figure Billionaires who are locked in massive legal quarrels over this illegally rehypothecated (fancy word for STOLEN) gold with both the LMBA and COMEX, which in USA, the COMEX could default if Warren Buffet would just be brilliant when he bought his first ‘MINE’ of 141M oz of Silver, b/c if he would by another 160M Oz, the COMEX would default I thinkI I don’t think they have over 5Tons of Silver in phyical form there and it is against Buffets interests to EXPLODE the silver market, b/c then his record 200K/shareof his A listed Berkshire Shares, along with every aspect of the econommywoud get torched, except for NAT Resources, Commodities, and ESPECIALLY Gold, Silver, and PGMs! I’m sre that well over 90% of this illegally ‘REHYPOTHECATED’ Goldwas sent to China when the BullionBanks: JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Deutche Bank, Citigroup, and Scotia Moccata, happened to knock the price of Gold down to such obscenely low levels ($1920 in 2011) vs $1285 in 2014, 34 months later, with USA & 38 other nations trying to keep even in their floating valuedsymphony where they are all compared to the USDollar, that equals a SHITLOAD of total world M3 moeny created in those 3 years, and given the supply for money is simply m=pq/v, whereby Money=Price(Quantity)/Velocity and V is VERY LOW and when you divide any large number by a small number,you end up with a gargantan number! I’m Estimating but somewhere in the neighborhood of $15-20Tn IN EQUIVALENT USD$ were added to world monetary supply from NOV 2011 to AUG27th, 2014! Here’s another hypothetical Steve—Do you think that China coerced us to subborn or employ the immense naked shorts tactic that occurred specifically on April 15, 2013, which was a Friday and then carried that downward sentiment and price through Monday April 18th, as Gold lost over $300 in 2 days of trading (a record) going from $1550 to $ $1250 or China was going to announce how much gold it has and back their Yuan with Gold, or let Vladamir Putin and Russia get going ASAP with the Gold Backed Ruble-as they know our Ft Knox is EMPTY or we would have been able to give Germany a better deal on the gold they own under the NY FED and can’t even see, and all we could do was give them 5 tons out of 350 tons and tell them that the other 345 tons would be available in 7 years,which is a main reason Germany hates our guts and is cozying up to Russia, as Putin speaks German and Merkel seaks Rusian and the Germans just caught theNSA spying on erkels private cell phone, which makes Russia and China really happyb/cGermany has the engineering know how to put a cherry on that block of nations that willbe announced next month! If China made this threat, and e know Russia is following China’s lead/orders, it would succeed in pulling the PIG or POSX (USD Index) down into the low 70’s (72.5) like we saw in 2008, b/c at that point, I believe they had close to 4500 tons anyway, our recovery has been a risible farce, and this time if we didn’t play ballwth China, we’d see the first of MANY Gold backed currencies. Further evidence that China was gifted this gold at $.50 on the dollar is the fact that India was FORCED, first by hackers from Langlley, then they gave in and raised the tariff on AU imports all the way to 15%, but buying just went underground. That overt Indian buying and their import numbers would ineluctibly be higher, which meant more Gold for China @ $1200-$1300/oz to buy? Finally, with silver supply gap between oz mined and oz demanded for industrial and retail/consumer hedging going up immensely as you superbly pointed out, where on Earth do these giant corporations like Honeywell, Apple, Western Digital, Seagate Technologies, Marvell, Skyworks Solutions, Arris Corp, Teradata, Oracle, Fortinet, Tibco, Palo Alto Networks, AVG, Cisco, GE, Cloud companies like EMC, RaxSpace Holdings, VMWare, F5 Networks, Salesforce, Samsung, Google, Sony, SanDisk, or Defense companies like Elbit and Aerovironment (The Two largest publicly traded Drone makers), Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Fibrous Laser Pioneer IPG Photonics Corp, the litany of BioTech stocks that have performed terrifically; see iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund (IBB) Waste Management, 3D Printers DDD, SSYS, XONE, DASTY, Organovo, to say nothing of the laundry list of German[, Japanese, South Korean, and American Automobiles SILVER STASH COULD BE. I’VE READ REPORTS THAT BMW KEEPS THEIRS IN THE SWISS ALPS, ACTUALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS! HOW or better yet, WHERE the HELL do they get and store all the Silver the need to because I didn’t list ONE SOLAR PANEL COMPANY LIKE CANADIAN SOLAR (CSIQ) NOR ONE WATER PURIFICATION COMPANY LIKE VEOLIA ENVIRONMENT (VE), WHICH ALONE, THOSE TWO ENORMOUS INDUSTRIES ALONE WILL IN A FEW SHORT YEARS REQUIRE 375-450M OZ/ANUM! ANYWAY, I APOLOGIZE FORCOMING OFF AS RAMBLING AND GIVING OFF THE OPINION THAT I SEEM TO BE TALKING IN CIRCLES TO ANYONE WHO FEELS THAT WAY, BUT THATNK YOU FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK AND DEDICATION TO THIS TREMENDOUSLY WORTHY CAUSE MR (DR.?) St Angelo. Your articles are an everyday reminder that despite spending my life savings on silver @ $26, thinking it could go no lower than primary miiners annual cost of production back in 2012, which was just over $25 I think, I’ve since learned quite a bit about how much freedom and laxity lies within the $$700 PLUS Trillion Dollar Derivative market, and if I may ask one last question, what percentage of these $700,000,000,000,000 PLUS Derivatives market is constitued by worthless paper claims against Gold or Silver that is NOT THERE? I have to think it’s well over $100Tn, b/c of all the commodities markets, the P.M. markets are the easiest to manipulate as far as I can tell. THANKS Again and keep shining the light! r Gratefully, Link Axelquist

There were over 2.5 billion oz of unreported above ground silver stocks in the late 1980’s. This is according to the CPM GROUP. Over the past several decades and especially from 1990 to 2004, the world suffered continue annual silver deficits. That 2.5 billion oz of above ground stock went to supplement the annual deficits.

While there still is a good bit of silver floating around, the OTC Derivatives markets still controls the paper price. As I mentioned several times…. PEAK OIL is the key to destroying the valuations of most paper assets. We are beginning to feel the pressure as the Fed and Central Banks have resorted to flooding the world with over $30 trillion in liquidity since 2008.

This will not end well.

Lastly, you say the price of silver has gone nowhere in the past 5 years? Are you serious. Five years ago, Silver was $13. It shut up to $49 in April 2011, averaged $30 in 2012… was taken down after QE3 was announced.

You have to realize the Fed had to drive the paper value of gold and silver lower at the end of 2012 or they whole plan of QE3 would not have worked.

This is one of those thesis that just never really seem to play out. The great silver shortage just never happens. And even if it does, expect silver to get pounded in the paper markets. TPTB will flog the paper markets so they can pillage the silver ETF’s too.

Nice assumption, however you continue to think in a WESTERN MENTALITY. Have you been asleep for the past few years or do you realize that the EAST is devouring gold and silver hand over fist. This is no longer a Western Establishment Controlled market. Of course the Chinese do not want the CAT OUT OF THE BAG quite yet, but don’t fall victim to believing the West really controls anything in the long run.

I never said there was a shortage, but I did say physical silver investment demand has picked up substantially.

Come on Jack… even you can’t be that clueless to see that 246 million oz record silver bullion demand in 2013 is less than 1 ounce for each American. Forget the rest of the world…LOL.

Come on FOLKS… can’t you all come up with better OBJECTIONS than these worn out ones??

Ah…..I think you may have been asleep at the wheel. You keep saying gold and silver had to be taken down so QE3 could work. Actually, you are wrong. Gold was taken to the woodshed to get the plebs to sell their ETF’s to the bullion banks, who then emptied 500 tonnes out of the GLD etf. You know it had to be them because you can only redeeem GLD for physical in 100 million lots. So the take down was to get gold. And now a few countries have given up gold on top of it. So now the bullion banks have enough gold to re-lease a million times over for years…..which is why they can control the price.

Therefore, if silver really did become scare you would start to see the Silver ETF get drained of physical inventories and the price gets hammered by the commercial banks. This is why I’ve been telling you since silver was in the 30s that it is headed to 12. And you’ve laughed at me all the way down.

Again, I ask, how is your thesis playing out?

Peak oil I believe is bogus too. Your theory that peak oil will destroy the economic IOU’s in paper, therefore this paper will flood to PM’s is just silly. Oil has come down from 105 to 93. Does that look like PEAK OIL is right around the corner to you? Yes, I know. Your theory is that the Great Marcellus goes into a big depletion rate in 2016 and this will put pressure on supply, oil will skyrocket in price, and the whole ponzi will fall apart.

BUT, I have heard this same Peak Oil theory since the 80s!!!!!!!! And every time the supply looks tight—supply soars.

In essence Steve, you are shorting the plight and ingenuity of mankind. This, as it always is, is a very bad call. It is always why your thesis has been dead in the water for years now.

Ah, now I see. PEAK OIL IS BOGUS…LOL. Okay, now I realize how you think. Again, you are free to post your opinions here, but your logic is quite lacking to say least. Let’s wait around a few years and see how the chips fall.

“PEAK OIL IS BOGUS”…LOL. Thanks Jack, I need a good laugh this morning.

I would hate to tell you what I do for a living, Steve. But let’s just leave it at this: I am an oil, geologist expert. I know all the numbers on Oil. I’ve been following mountains of data since the early 80s. I’ve put in literally THOUSANDS of hours on expeditions, talking to other oil companies, other experts for over 30 years. Let’s just say: I know Oil.

There is no peak in production. It is a power game among the operators. Yeah, I know we consume about 15 million equivalent per day and only produce a little of 7 million. Let me assure you, this is by design. We could ladder step case our production up to 15 a day in about a year. You will shun this because it goes against everything you think, and that your research has shown you. But it is true. We could get up to 15, even 20 million a day of oil production without barely scratching the surface.

But that is not the plan: our economic advisers have a very long-term formidable plan to secure oil for generations. It is why we don’t ramp all at once. It’s why every decade or so a mystery find comes into play: think 70, then mid 80s and then the Shale. Believe me, as an oil exploration expert, there are going to be a lot more FUN oil finds and surprises down the pike. But not yet. There is no need as we play strategic worldwide games.

Let me put it this way, Steve, I’ve had little kids like you laughing at me since the 80s. People like you telling me for thirty years we’re at abou peak–and we’re going down.

I’m so sorry you are putting so much on a thesis that is already, for anyone that has really done the work, dead wrong. You’re right: we’ll see. I was told the same thing in the 80s, 90s, and this latest decade. I have been right and won for over 3 decades on this argument. I will win over the next 10 decades. There is more oil than we know what to do with it.

Good luck, but Peak Oil is a long long long way off. Keep bettting against human ingenuity. Trust me, you will go to your grave wrong.

Thanks for providing some details of what you do. You fall into a category of OIL FOLKS that don’t see peak oil. I get it. I run into many who believe that. There’s this fella named MICKEY FULP who is called the MERCENARY GEOLOGIST. He doesn’t believe in peak oil. I could go on and on.

Oh, we can’t forget DANIEL YERGIN who gets just about all of his forecasts on oil wrong….. he’s the Dennis Gartman of the Gold Industry.

However, I know countless others in the industry who have just as much experience as you or more… and they believe in peak oil.

Furthermore, the FALLING EROI – Energy Returned On Invested is proof that extracting that GARBAGE OIL called TAR SANDS and SHALE OIL at an EROI of 5/1 at the most, is still twenty times less than the 100/1 EROI of USA oil and gas production in the 1930’s.

So, why are we extracting this MARGINAL OIL if there’s all this cheap stuff just lying around? That notion may sell CONSPRIACY BOOKS, such as that silly paperback by JEROME CORSI called BLACK GOLD STRANGLE-HOLD. Corsi believes in the Abiotic Oil theory. George Noory, host of Coast to Coast AM, always has Corsi on his show to provide his one-sided propaganda. Noory doesn’t believe in PEAK OIL or CLIMATE CHANGE.

Sometimes I wonder if Noory was picked to take over Art Bell’s position because he held those VIEWS. Art Bell who started Coast to Coast Am, does believe in Peak oil and climate change.

Charles Hall is one of the brightest minds on the understanding of the EROI and he just retired after a career in studying the EROI. He has a very pessimistic view of the world going forward due to the falling EROI.

I could go on and on.

SO, I gather the best thing we need to do here is AGREE TO DISAGREE… and wait around a while to see who’s LOGIC was more valid.

The shale is a Joke, Steve. And yes, the EROI is ridiculous for the Shale. It is the Shale that has misled too many like Charles Hall, and I have dealt with him on 100s of occasions, and I can tell you he is most definately working, like you, within a false set of assumptions. If your assumptions or quotient start off wrong: the answer will not be right. That much I can reassure you.

If Hall and others such as Art Berman who studied the shale gas industry for ten years are based on FALSE ASSUMPTIONS. then what are the correct ones. I am all ears to NEW IDEAS.

Why does an OIL INDUSTRY move from ON-SHORE to Deep Water in the Gulf of Mexico to deal with Hurricane Force winds, Salt Water Erosion, Expensive Ocean floor pipelines etc and etc, if there’s all this cheap oil still on land??

Art Berman is a member of the Houston Geological Society. He has been in the industry for decades and believes the only reason why the oil companies are extracting Tar Sands and Shale is due to the fact that…

THAT’S ALL WE GOT LEFT FOLKS.

If you believe this is incorrect, I would love to hear your SIDE OF THE STORY.

And please don’t tell me the SAVIOR is Abiotic Oil. You will lose all credibility.

Oh….jeeez. What an information load of b.s. Let’s see: we moved from ON-SHORE….to DEEP WATER….to the SHALE……so therefore that is all we got. Oh my! And it also sounds like a lot of Chris Martenson mumbo jumbo as well. There is somehting big missing here, but gee we Peak Oil experts just can’t see it, what is it?

I gave you the opportunity… the FLOOR to give us your insight on all this oil lying around. If you want to continue ridiculing my work, Chris Martenson, Charles Hall, Art Berman, Bill Powers and the hundreds of Peak oil folks that I follow, you need to provide some DATA.

Anyone can name call, but I don’t see any actual DATA rolling off them lips of yours. You seem to have the same kind of personality and response as JEFF CHRISTIAN. That alone throws up a RED FLAG for me.

Jack… you seem to being trying to go against the FORCES OF NATURE & GRAVITY. If you spent thousands of hours talking to oil companies and doing expeditions all over God’s creation… there must be some evidence or Data that you can impress upon us all here.

Jack
You still haven’t answered any of my questions and I’m still waiting for all this data and overall knowledge you posses in this field.. Debunk Steve and use actual data I’m sure if Steve is wrong he would love someone to prove it and set him straight.. So far you haven’t done that jack saying someone is wrong and not providing data and facts to back your counter view is shows your argument has no strength

Jack I have several questions for you.. Where is the new oil coming from and more importantly what does the price have to be ( measured in US dollars for now) to make it worthwhile for extraction? With stagnate wages at what point do gasoline prices become an overwhelming financial burden for Joe Sixpack?

Jack
Please enlighten us with vast knowledge of these secret oil reserves and when they’re going to come on line! I think your really missing the point in all this I might be putting words in Steve’s mouth but I believe as he does that the world has plenty of oil but AT WHAT PRICE DOES IT NEED TO BE WORTHWHILE TO EXTRACT? At what price does a barrel of oil become too expensive for any sort economic growth the world hardly has any right now…this is an extreme example but at a billion dollar barrel of oil I could claim that the oil on Mars is worth extracting (assuming has mars has oil) but could the economy and the average consumer afford that? The simple answer is no!

Some silver porn from Ted Butler….. “The stage is set for something the world has never experienced previously – an asset bubble accompanied by an industrial shortage. The two greatest upward price forces known to man, an asset bubble and a genuine commodity shortage, appear set to combine in silver. Either one alone would have a profound impact on the price, but the combination seems both inevitable—and almost impossible to contemplate in terms of how high the price of silver could be driven. It’s hard to see how intense investment buying wouldn’t trip off industrial user attempted inventory stockpiling, or vice versa—and it doesn’t matter which comes first.”

Porn is right. How many years can a guy make bad calls like Ted Butler and anyone look at him with a straight face.

Ted Butler has been claiming the amazing silver bull run in right around the corner since the 80s! i MEAN seriously, how ridiculous. He’ll be wrong again and again and again. He’s so deep in his stench that there is no way for him to back off the silver bull.

Oh…..and the last time there was a huge asset bubble (housing) and it popped money didn’t go chasing gold and silver. Money went chasing cash. U.S. dollars! So if there is an asset bubble–though I don’t think Butler knows one when he sees one because silver was most clearly THE BUBBLE in the 40s–and the bubble pops don’t expect to see the” IOU’s” go chasing PM’s.

The reason is too simple, an Occam Razor if you will: if a bubble popped in stocks most people will scramble to shore up dollars again. Why? Think about it. What do you pay your mortgage, food, electricity, gas in?

Right. So when bubbles pop people become worried about their financial stability first (how do I pay my bills?) and this causes a run to dollars–not precious metals. So if the bubble pops in stocks, silver will continue to suffer even more.

Tbob, with each passing day, another chamber in the house of cards goes up in flames. And you want to sell your insurance at par? Well, you didn’t understand your silver ‘investment’ in the first place i guess.

Good for you Tbob. The perma-bulls is a good term for these snake-oil sales-men.

It’s all this crap is: doom porn. And it sells. Think about Maloney,–he GETS PAID TO SELL BULLION. That is what his company GoldSIlver does. They sell silver and gold at ridiculous premiums. Can you say biased and conflicted advice any more than that!

These guys never tell the truth. The doom is always right around the corner–reallly, just lurking right around the corner–but IT NEVER HAPPENS. The world moves forward….without them.

There is a reason Buffett is rich and these guys are poor and not good for humanity. You see, Buffett believes in the bull market of mankind over the long term. He has made billions bettering on mankind–not shiny metals sitting in a hole waiting for Armageddon to happen any second now. It’s right around the corner–silver is going to the moon. I mean, seriously, what if Buffett talked like these guys? He’d have zero credibility.

These morons that keep predicting silver is going to the stratosphere just look more ridiculous by the day.

It’s 1964….I have $1000. If I keep it in the form of FRN’s….today, I still have $1000,(albeit less purchasing power due to inflation). If I instead trade it for 4000 quarters, I would now have about $16,000 worth…Why? Because the quarters contain SILVER! T-boob!!! So, convert your silver to de-valuing FRN’s if you like, but as for me, I will keep my beautiful, shiny metal of many uses and continue to convert my de-valued paper to more of that stuff that keeps it’s value!

However, KeepInMind that the price of everything went up also, so you didn’t gain anything.

I don’t understand why when valuing PMs, they are always valued in FRNs. If you’re not going to trade them in for FRNs to buy REAL wealth such as land or shelter why set their value in FRN paper?

Remember, we in the western empire do not value PMs as money and their use as a liquid asset requires an operating monetary system. If and when the monetary system collapses, who will determine the value of your PMs?

ONLY if you plan on selling your PMs when they spike and buying real assets will they be worth anything (even Maloney said this). But even as the currency devalues, the price of everything goes up also, so it’s kind of a catch 22 there.

Maybe it would be wise to invest in a stripper well (black gold) when the FRN value of your PMs spike…one that you can operate yourself on your own land. Oil is the master currency…gold, silver, and paper currency only represent it.

I don’t know what will happen with the price of silver, but I KNOW what will happen to the dollar. It will crash by design, to make room for the one world currency (prophesied). I would dump cash, if I had any, and either get silver (gamble?), or REAL ESTATE. You could buy a $4000-$10000 2-3 bedroom trailer and rent it out, minus the lot rent if you don’t have land. That’s the best bang for buck I see in a certain collapse.

Tbob, years ago I read that the only people that will have any gold when the crash finally comes will be the banksters. As each year passes I believe the wisdom of that statement more and more, and I have a feeling that we haven’t seen anything yet as far as gold/silver volatility.

If you don’t have the strength or willpower to hang on to the tree limb while the banksters continue to shake it and abuse you, then I suppose the earlier that you realize your limitations and let go, the smarter you are. Not only is it better for your nerves and health, but you will also avoid a lot of time, pain and effort that you would have wasted on something that you could never have endured anyway. Good luck.

IMO, this is the economic version of Special Forces training. Only a small percentage, the strongest of the strong, will have the will power to make it all the way to the end. I am resigned to hold on no matter what, and if it takes longer than I have left on earth, then my kids and grand kids will benefit. They’re the main reason I’m doing this anyhow. I believe it’s the least I can do for them since my generation, the Baby Boomers, is responsible for much of the misery they are going to inherit.

“The reason is too simple, an Occam Razor if you will: if a bubble popped in stocks most people will scramble to shore up dollars again. Why? Think about it. What do you pay your mortgage, food, electricity, gas in?”

Actually when a stock bubble pops many hold on to their stocks in the hopes they will recover value..rather than sell and take a beating.

They have been paying their mortgage out of income, and stock dividend, even if not re-invested, isn’t enough to pay mortgage, etc.

“So if the bubble pops in stocks, silver will continue to suffer even more”.

That’s because Butler doesn’t understand silver. He likes it because its manipulated, that’s it. He doesn’t understand two important aspects of silver. 1) Up until the late 90’s/early 2000’s, silver was way ahead of its time in that no one had yet exploited its unparalleled conductivity characteristics. In other words, it has only been a short time since silver has been used in material quantities for its electrical and thermal conductivity characteristics. 2) When the debt bomb explodes, which is highly likely to occur within 5-years given total US debt is in excess of $60T, it has absurd regulations and all the politicians are parasites and have done absolutely nothing positive for the country ever, except spend more and more money on completely inefficient programs. The U.S should be referred to as the U.S.S.A as unadulterated socialism now persists. Anyway, at some point in time, the western world will begin to accumulate precious metals similar to Chindia, etc. One has to be completely naive with no knowledge of economics to think the U.S.D will be around come 2020, at least in its current form. Not to mention, Japan, and various other fiat monetary systems. Fiat money always returns to its intrinsic value of zero – voltaire. It’s very odd that aside from the French Assignats, there were no hyperinflationary depressions pre-20th century. Just in the 20th century, over 50 hyperinflationary episodes occurred, yet almost no one is aware of this fact.

If peak oil gets so bad that silver hits $4G an ounce you’ll be better off with a different kind of precious metal- ammo. 308 Win FMJ. I buy the stuff by the crate 🙂

Lead with copper jacket beats gold and silver every time lol. Think of ammo as stored energy ithat will deliver a force concentrating device to a target. Upon impact with the target the device will come to a stop once it has transferred its momentum to an equal mass of the target medium. It’s ammo and not gold/silver that keeps the Hun at bay and the King of England off your back. Puts meat on the table too.

I like the observation that the Silver Institute considers bullion held by investors as part of available above ground stocks. Well gee, I guess if the price is right.

Even if the price blew up, many investors would still hold some back because what would be the sound alternative to replace it with? Without some fiat backed by something – I think many investors will still hold back some as insurance.

Point being, it is specious at best to consider investment bullion as a part of a commodity stockpile.

I didn’t use perpetual assets I’m just going to cash out take the 10% hit then buy some pm’s… 2100$ which is pretty standard for setting up a Roth LLC didn’t seem worth it to me.. I sent the Rodger Boyd presentation to a lot of people whether they watched it or not who knows but that guy nailed it!!

M Childs, Possibly. Depends on the type of crash you are talking about.

Economic crash; Assuming the dollar holds its value (unlikely), then yes, silver could go down, but will still have some value.

Hyper Inflation; It has happened many times before in history, and silver/gold were always valuable in those situations and saved many families. If this happens the dollar will be most valuable for toilet paper and for starting fires.

Dollar crash; IMO most likely since the BRICS and other countries are actively trying to work around having to use the dollar as the World Reserve Currency. When they are finished the dollar will crash. Also the Petro Dollar is nearing the end of its life span. As soon as the Arabs accept something other than dollars for their oil the dollar is finished and will rapidly lose 50% of its value. Who knows where it will eventually bottom out. They accept only dollars for their oil (The Petro Dollar) in exchange for us protecting them militarily. But we are looking more weak and wishy washy every day. The Arabs are getting friendlier with Putin who is looking stronger every day.
The fate of the dollar may be out of our hands.

If the dollar crashes you will only want things of real value, gold/silver, income producing land or real estate, oil, natgas, wheat, corn, cows, chickens, weapons, etc.

Dear Steve.
I have been following your posts for some years and I want to thank you very much for your frequent posts, your great analysis and your excelent charts. More so for providing it for free. You are very generous, I have been learning a lot from you. Keep up the great work. A big thumbs up from me.
I have been looking for the above mentioned Roger Boyd presentation but couldn’t find it. Could someone post a link pls.

Useful update. Any interesting numbers on this year yet? My guesstimate is it is looking like investment demand will be down this year, maybe 20% BUT we are just moving into the buying season for PMs so that impression could easily reverse soon. Also if the MSM propaganda images are shaken by bad financial news such as bank failures/bail ins etc (which I suspect is odds on in Europe right now) then investment demand could go up to 300M, 400M or more toz as the almost smart money starts moving in before it is too late.

After the “almost smart money” moves in there will not be much available “above ground” silver left, apart from the paper stuff that is.

You provide the data expressed this way: investment demand as a percentage of industrial demand. Yet the scale on your chart is WAY off. Your blue bars should be roughly half the size that they are. I love the data but the chart is quite misleading. A casual reader of this article will assume the investment numbers are a percent of total demand.

No one wants to suffer or see or hear of family or friends suffering, societal and economic chaos, etc.

The PM manipulation has kept the “system” functioning. As flawed, immoral, or illegal as it is, it has kept fiat currency based economies functioning. Of course the motivation of JPM et al hasn’t been 100% altruistic [maybe a small % of people in the financial manipulation industry think in this way].

Aside from the profits made from this manipulation let’s examine the “altruistic’ side from the central planners. They thought hammering the price of PM’s downward in the last couple years would shake out investment demand. Instead the gold price looked like a bargain to wealthy individuals and central banks or governments that have enormous quantities of fiat to buy it with. In silver the price is similarly appealing. But now if the price of either goes up more fiat will pour in because people want to ride an investment going up in price/value. But if the prices go down there will be more bargain buying. They are trapped, and it all holds together until severe physical shortage occurs in either metal. Then the wheels come off the system. gold and silver price in dollars is perhaps the ultimate bellwether of when the economy gets really bad again.

It seems Jack has proved himself as nothing more than another Internet troll.. My whole philosophy on buying pm’s is when I go to work expend my time and energy then in return I receive a debt based fiat currency that can’t store time and energy and never has been known to through out history.. Gold and silver require time and energy to produce so it becomes a store of those 2 things so to me it becomes the most effient vehicle to preserve my time and energy long term

Is it true a “Monetary System” does not need the backing of PRECIOUS METALS? Answer yes. BUT only if the Bankers and the Politicians were honest and had our (the peoples) best interest at heart. BUT they don’t.

Our Ignorance = Power and Control

I am a new participant in the purchase of precious metals because I now believe I fully understand how the monetary system works. It has taken a long time for me to get to that understanding and it is nothing other than the world’s biggest Ponzi scheme.

I am also a chartist; the charts tell you where the money is and the charts tell me they have to correct. No if or buts, they have to correct, most likely in 2014. When they do along with the nervous anticipation of investors, all hell will break loose.

It will not matter whether you believe in our monetary system having the backing of precious metals or not; when people realise their paper wealth (money) is of no value they will scramble to purchase anything they understand is of value.

Precious Metals will play a significant role in this panic.

An added note:

I have heard it said one in a million fully understands the concept of money creation. I have also heard it said one in ten million understands what SDR’s are and the role they may play in a new monetary system once the corrupt Federal Reserve central banking system fails. It is my personal understanding, most people would like to believe they fully understand how the monetary system works but in reality they don’t.

Henry Ford said it best: “It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” Quote from “The Web of Debt” by Ellen Brown; Foreword by Reed Simpson, M.Sc., Banker and Developer.

“I gave you the opportunity… the FLOOR to give us your insight on all this oil lying around. ”

Oh well….forgive me that I left and went to dinner on a Saturday night! Oh, my! I must be a shill, an internet troll, that knows nothing about oil because wait for it…..I wasn’t sitting idle and just waiting to answer all your questions. I went to dinner for goodness sakes. Unbelievable.

Seriously, are you all children around here?

Then there is this fine nuggest that is the largest RED FLAG from Steve and his writing ever: “If you want to continue ridiculing my work, Chris Martenson, Charles Hall, Art Berman, Bill Powers and the hundreds of Peak oil folks that I follow, you need to provide some DATA.”

FIRST OFF, all I ever see from you Steve is you ridiculing anyone that has come to different viewpoints than you. How MANY times do you refute someone with a “looks like the MSM and propaganda has gotten to you.” Then you say the above nuggett “the hundreds of peak oil folks that I follow.” You know, I knew all along your work lacked any real original material….and it has been clear to me that your are be programmed as badly as all the masses that get their news from the local station. YOU ARE NO BETTER.

You have spent, by your own admission, countless hours, thousands of hours more likely, FOLLOWING others like the good little sheep that you are. You take them and their material as gospel……sucking it in like it is the word of God. Then, you post post after post how the WHOLE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BLOW UP AND YOU KNOW IT. Because PeaK Oil is here, and we are all DOOMED. That there is no way out. And a 100 trillion in paper is going to all find their way to silver., and gold of course, because that is the answer to MANKIND.

Then, you spend countless hours TRYING to convince others this is WHAT IS going to happen—despite that you have been wrong for so many years it is becoming hard to count–and that EVERYBODY should buy silver to save their souls, their family, and their dogs. Because that is the ONLY answer…..heck Chris Martenson said so, so it must be right. And, oh boy, Art Berman, who self admits is is often very very wrong, says there is no way to energy independence so that MUST BE SO.

Seriously, how long has this drum been pounded on? I can tell you. For DECADES. And it hasn’t proven true! Why? Seriously, instead of being programmed by all the PEAK doomsayers try for just once to spend half the time looking at the other side. Just pretend for a moment you haven’t become so programmed that you can OPEN YOU MIND.

Let me tell you, by stating AS FACT that these are the people you spend 100s of hours following WHAT DOES THAT TELL US? You’ve been programmed. And yes, I’ve seen your thoughts on the Shale, EROI, depletion rates, etc. I’ve seen them many other places too. It is, I CAN ASSURE YOU, the theory of children. Keep selling DOOM. Keep telling everyone the world is almost out of easy to find Oil as WTI tanks from 150 in 2007 to 93 today with 20% less consumption. Yes, we’re out of cheap oil everyone—the game is up, a 100 trillion is about to be wiped out because we cannot afford expensive oil. And just look at how expensive it is getting.

You know, the chart the other day by the Energy Information Admin was a real doozy that you put up—show 127 major oil and gas companies losing 100 billion a year. That was hysterical quite frankly. I though you were really laying on the B.S. doom agenda big with that nonsense.

Trust me, the oil and gas sector is not losing money on whole at 90 oil. There HAVE BEEN OVER 100 BILLION in stock repurchased a year alone in the last 3 years! Sure, there are many small loser Oil and Gas plays. There always have been. For DECADES! But the top 80 oil companies in the world make more money than they know what to do with! Seriously, what a load of crap that is spewed around here to try to program a dogmatic view point not grounded in sanity.

YOU POOR FOOLS! I could tell you about three, just three, major oil discoveries made in just the last year that could fill our energy independence gap. But you can FIND THE DATA. But I want YOU TO LOOK FOR IT! Because it’ll prove to me that you are capable of looking at the other side, at least for a few minutes.

The world is not going to collapse.People are not going to sell XOM to buy Silver or sell KO because people are going to stop drinking it. The stock market WILL have a big correction–simply because it is overvalued. But believe me when I say this, the end of the world will not be at hand. It will be a stock market adjustment–that is all. And the vast majority of the selling will fall to U.S. dollars.

You know, I’ve never seen a bunch of shills wrong for SO LONG and be so dogmatic that EVERYONE just doesn’t get it. I get it. I see what you get. I see and understand the programming you follow. The question is Steve, do you really get it?

Ah, I see you have returned. Just to let you know, I don’t ridicule others because they have a different viewpoint that me. Normally, I just say, LETS AGREE TO DISAGREE. I do ridicule others who start the name calling first. So, yes, you fit that category.

FIRST: You say that the oil companies are buying back stock. So what. That’s the new financial model in the broader stock markets. And by the way, a lot of these companies are borrowing money at ultra low interest rates to buy back stock. Why aren’t the OIL MAJORS taking that money and INVESTING IT? Let’s take a look at the chart below on the OIL MAJORS:

So, Jack…why has CAPEX spending increased 5 times since 2000, but overall oil production continues to decline? The OIL MAJORS just waiting for a rainy day to pump out all the HIDDEN OIL? Are you for real?

SECOND: All the Peak Oil guys that I read and follow know what NEW OIL DISCOVERIES have been made.. and there aren’t many as there used to be. For you to say there are THREE discoveries that can make fill the Independent Gap… WHAT ARE THEY?

Let’s check out this second graph by Steve Koptis showing the forecasted DECLINE of CAPEX spending by the Oil Majors:

Why are the OIL MAJORS forecasted to cut back considerably on CAPEX spending over the next 3-4 years? Because we could simply TURN ON THE OIL SPIGOT and produce 15 mbd? Jack, if you don’t see the writing on the wall here, then I have to say, there is something seriously wrong with your ANALYTICAL ABILITIES.

THIRD: Collapse is coming whether we like it or not. The Roman Empire collapsed, as did many empires after it. For you to continue believing BUSINESS AS USUAL will continue in light of all the Derivatives and $30 Trillion plus of monetary liquidity that the Fed & Central Banks threw in the market since 2008 to keep the system from collapsing, then we are just going to have to AGREE TO DISAGREE…LOL.

First, you admit that all the oil companies had been doing since 2000 is investing in major cap-ex for new find (see the charts). Then, you turnaround and say cap-ex is now declining and why aren’t they investing now. Hmmmmm, do you see your own hypocrisy here?

Let me explain to you, cap-ex is declining after having ratcheted up for many years on end because with the new discoveries having been made, further growth-cap ex for most oil and gas companies going forward over the next few years does not make good economic sense. (You see, CEO’s are a LOT smarter than you think). The oil market is beginning to discount this information which leaves most of the industry shut out of growth cap-ex for good reasons. Here’s a hint: you should really start reading XOM’s 10k’ and STOP LISTENING to PEAK DOGMA.

So, in a nutshell, yes the spigot is about to be turned on in a big way over the next few years. And your global collapse is going to have to wait a few more decades.

Derivatives have two counter parties–most of the contracts in the world net out. Any real trader can tell you this. Did you know there are hundreds of 1000s of derivative contracts regarding the oil companies themselves for example? And a lot of it is to get net neutral and protect profits.

And yes, the monetary ticking time bomb will crush stocks for awhile–that is all. It will not be the end of the world. Most money in the correction will fly into USD’s. In fact, since you are predicting a major deflationary storm you should know better and PM’s will be crushed in that scenario.

If you want to protect yourself, go buy some airline stocks or some auto stocks.

Good luck, (You’ll be waiting a very long time with your premises),
Jack

First, you admit that all the oil companies had been doing since 2000 is investing in major cap-ex for new find (see the charts). Then, you turnaround and say cap-ex is now declining and why aren’t they investing now. Hmmmmm, do you see your own hypocrisy here?

I never said companies weren’t spending MONEY HAND OVER FIST. They have been.. and showing really nothing for it all, as you can plainly see in the chart. THEY SPEND MORE.. and PRODUCE LESS.

Jack, your response in that first paragraph makes me realize its a FRICKEN WASTE OF TIME to continue debating with you. Its not a good EROI….LOL.

You may continue posting here, but I am not wasting any more of my time replying to what I now realize as being NONSENSE.

Oh….you are going to take your ball and go home. How quaint. Of course, they are producing less….that why production is up over the last few years. You clearly don’t like facts to be thrown back in your face when they don’t fit your doomsday scenario. And yes, production and the spigot is going to be turned on in a much bigger way. Of course, don’t read the material right out of the Major Oil companies reports…..just keep getting ALL your information from 3rd sources. Brilliant!

I am done. And definitely realize there is no need to read your drivel since you cannot handle anyone refuting you and pointing you to where the real winds blow.

Jack
You didn’t answer my questions and more importantly you haven’t provided any data!!! What would happen if these companies couldn’t borrow at record low interest rates to buy back their stock? It’s called ZIRP in case you didn’t know.. Steve is correct again stock buy backs are common bc of ZIRP.. I’ll give and very simple example if I can borrow x amount of money at 1% and my common stock yields 2% I’m going to buy my common stock back collect the money from the yield and make my EPS look better than it is making my company look better than it should.. BUT PLZ PROVIDE DATA!!!!!!

Hi Jack,
Everything you say about there being more oil makes since. The oil crooks drive prices up by limiting supply. That must be why politicians block drilling in Alaska because of “wildlife”. Now on the other hand, just because there may be an infinite amount of oil does not mean that the dollar will survive.

You better believe there is an agenda for a one world currency. I have been hearing about billionaires dumping dollars, because they know what’s coming. Warren Buffet has been selling stocks, and buying railroads and pipelines. I was hearing that he’s not the only one following these trends. Just a couple of days after hearing about Buffet, he was on 60 minutes with Bill Gates calling for all billionaires to donate HALF of their wealth! Both Buffet and Gates are committing to Gate’s vaccine foundation. Oh sure, they can help world food and water shortages…by KILLING people. Gates himself said vaccines will REDUCE population growth.

Ok that is a little off topic of currency…but it all ties in the big picture. I have been thinking, how would China’s economy would crash? I couldn’t see how, considering that they’re booming, then just last week or two on 60 minutes, they were talking about how the bizzare empty cities have created a real estate bubble that will devastate their economy! I believe prophesy about a one world currency and government, and when you look at things with that in mind, things make total since. Even though you might not believe any of this…what would you invest in, if the dollar were to crash? (because it WILL!)

God dammit I just proved myself wrong and proved Jack right I was rabbit hunting in my back yard fired off a shot missed and hit the ground then this black substance started spewing out and it was OIL!! I guess I’m going to sell my pm’s and railroads shares and buy Facebook,Priceline,and Twitter stock

I believe@Jack is FOS. He never provided any information and just kept trying to discredit Steve. He called himself an expert. Always watch out for the so called “experts”. They are the most FOS(full of s%$t) people you will ever know. That is how they become experts, because they are FOS. If this guy was an oil expert or in the oil field, he would not have time to be here posting, believe me. He would be too tired to type or too rich to give a darn about anything but his money. Notice he called himself Jack, let me add the last name “ass”, to give you all the right perspective of what to think of this ” expert”.

You just have to open your eyes or take a drive to your city or neighborhood to notice the doom and gloom so many are trying to ignore. We can all ignore reality but it’s the consequences of ignoring reality we cannot ignore. I wonder who let this “Jack” out of the box?

These are the numbers of the actual balance sheet of an oil company. I’m not cherry picking. Out of the top 20 oil companies I could give many many more examples. This is a company that has skyrocketed in price, not borrowed to buy back stock, but has used free cash flow from operations to repurchase stock and INVEST in future growth for oil. Does this look A) a company struggling with oil in the 90s and B) a company even remontely needing ZIRP to you? Again, I could give about 40 more examples of this by many different oil companies…..

“He never provided any information and just kept trying to discredit Steve.”

I did this because it became clear to me he has spent outsized time learning from Peak Oil “gurus” or “experts” and that he hasn’t done nearly enough independent due diligence based on independent numbers.

Think about some perspective when you here the doom from the Peak Oilers. This just a snippet right off the internet:

For many years, a number of industry experts have been sounding the alarm that America, and the world, are about to run out of oil.

This is nothing new. In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. The Interior Department said global reserves would last 13 years… and that was in 1939. In 1956, Shell Oil geoscientist Marion King Hubbert advanced his peak oil theory, which said that world oil production had peaked and would begin to decline until all of the oil was gone.

Every expert who’s predicted “the end of oil” has been wrong in the past. But with global energy consumption at an all-time high, and much of the world’s economy dependent on oil, the question needs to be asked:

Are we running out of oil?…
The Peak Oil Theory

Are We Running Out of Oil?Hubbert (shown at left), whose distinguished career also included stints as a senior research geophysicist for the United States Geological Survey and professorships at Stanford University and UC Berkeley, believed that oil production looked like a bell curve.

Just as the production from an individual oil well will peak and then decline, so, he theorized, would global oil production. He called his bell curve “peak oil” – global oil production had peaked in the 1950s, he stated, and would begin a slow, but inevitable, decline to zero.

Most readers of Oil & Energy Investor know that I don’t subscribe to the peak oil position. Hubbert argued that we were running out of crude oil and would be moving to bicycles in short order.

Let me explain why I disagree.

Now don’t get me wrong, oil is a diminishing commodity. It has taken millions of years to provide what we are taking out of the ground. Aside from the occasional algae or biofuel farm, you can’t just grow an oil alternative in a matter of weeks.

Even if we could, current technology can’t provide more than a fraction of what would be needed if oil disappeared.

Yet that “disappearance” isn’t going to take place anytime even remotely soon.

Granted, 10 years ago I might have been more sympathetic to the Chicken Little (“The sky is falling”) approach when it came to the amount of crude oil remaining. In those days, I did say (and wrote) that we had about enough oil to possibly last one more generation.

But what I saw as the real issue back then was not the amount of oil remaining, but the reliability of the supply. I foresaw unpredictable disruptions, spot shortages, and a lot of uncertainty in the market.

Jack
You misererbly failed once again I said specifically the world has plenty of oil!!!!! What will the cost of extraction be??? That is the key question when does the price of a barrel oil send the global economy into a never ending tailspin??? Is 120$ 130$ 140$ 150$ what is Jack?
If it gets to 140$ and that becomes the new floor what happens to the global economy… Oh wait these secret reserves you speak of will magically come on line and save us all

Talking about doom and gloom not coming into fruition. Hilarious. That’s why I have two college degrees and work as a janitor. That’s why cities, such as Detroit, are filing bankruptcy. That’s why most of my generation lives at home. That’s why a growing number of people are on food stamps. That’s why 17 million children are starving in this country. That’s why boomers can’t afford to stop working…the list is endless. Gloom is already here for most of us. Plain and simple, I invest in pm’s because whether today or tomorrow, no matter the price of silver in fiat, pm’s will always preserve my purchasing power.

Justin
You’re wrong! Haven’t you read what Jack has written soon we’ll be paying 99 cents for a gallon a gas again I can’t wait! According to him cheap oil is right around the corner again.. That should spur growth in our consumer based economy again and all will be fine again.. All those problems you listed will evaporate away just you wait you’ll see everthing will be fine.. Especially when the dollar looses it’s world reserve currency status to the SDR or what ever it might be things will really boom in this country when we can’t live off the energy of other countries

You’re missing the point. Just because there might be plenty of oil, don’t mean the criminal oil companies are going to give it away. You have to think like a greedy criminal. Spread lies about supply shortages to manipulate supply and demand. Makes perfect since. All I know is Jesus is Lord. He fills that emptiness inside, and he prophesied what’s happening. If you look at things with that in mind then it makes perfect since.
What’s coming?
One world government, currency and religion. You’ll have to reject Jesus or die. Yes it will happen.

I glad you have Jesus on your side. However, the majority of the world is not Christian. And furthermore, for there to be a ONE WORLD GOVT, you need the majority to go along with the plan.

Do you honestly believe the Chinese, Indians, Russians or South American countries (BRICS) will go along with a ONE WORLD GOVT after the crap the Western Govts have done to destroy their currencies and loot their resources?

After this U.S. backed overthrow of the Ukrainian Govt, I highly doubt a one world govt is in the cards. Sure, the conspiracy sites continue to push that MANTRA, but I don’t believe it will happen.

The EAST now holds the cards. Soon the WESTERN powers will go the way of the way of the dinosaur.

I’m talking about the antichrist, who will kill Christians. The bible says that someone will rise up and finally bring peace, and a solution to everything. He will deceive the majority with many miracles and claim to be God. (Revelation 13)
Check out Albert Pikes letter about the 3 world wars, mainly WW3. He was a leader of the Masons and the founder of the KKK.

“The First World War must be brought about in order to permit the Illuminati to overthrow the power of the Czars in Russia and of making that country a fortress of atheistic Communism. The divergences caused by the “agentur” (agents) of the Illuminati between the British and Germanic Empires will be used to foment this war. At the end of the war, Communism will be built and used in order to destroy the other governments and in order to weaken the religions.” 2

Students of history will recognize that the political alliances of England on one side and Germany on the other, forged between 1871 and 1898 by Otto von Bismarck, co-conspirator of Albert Pike, were instrumental in bringing about the First World War.

“The Second World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences between the Fascists and the political Zionists. This war must be brought about so that Nazism is destroyed and that the political Zionism be strong enough to institute a sovereign state of Israel in Palestine. During the Second World War, International Communism must become strong enough in order to balance Christendom, which would be then restrained and held in check until the time when we would need it for the final social cataclysm.” 3

After this Second World War, Communism was made strong enough to begin taking over weaker governments. In 1945, at the Potsdam Conference between Truman, Churchill, and Stalin, a large portion of Europe was simply handed over to Russia, and on the other side of the world, the aftermath of the war with Japan helped to sweep the tide of Communism into China.

(Readers who argue that the terms Nazism and Zionism were not known in 1871 should remember that the Illuminati invented both these movements. In addition, Communism as an ideology, and as a coined phrase, originates in France during the Revolution. In 1785, Restif coined the phrase four years before revolution broke out. Restif and Babeuf, in turn, were influenced by Rousseau – as was the most famous conspirator of them all, Adam Weishaupt.)

“The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the “agentur” of the “Illuminati” between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustion…We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time.”

Did everybody hear what Putin said at NATO? “Do not forget we are one of the world nuculear superpowers and getting bigger…leave us alone”, as he tramples down Ukraine and takes over the pipeline, currency and PM in his path. He makes no joke about his plans. He will be the Czar and put the Soviet Union back together. Only this time he will add China to his side and Germany and everyone else in his path. EU depends on them for fuel….they are screwed. Now Mr oil man here says we are just burning up the natural gas because it cost to much to ship.
So to answer how will we end up as one world? REALLY? China is invading other countries (google it)…ISIS and Russia are invading. All of them are saying follow us or die. Personally, I think in about 2 years when the destruction is not reversible we will find Obama in Russia or Africa. If we won’t play with Putin they way HE wants does he just push a button? And then what? Obamas not going to do anything but watch us blow up while he is sitting in another country.
PM must be held onto because our paper money is already worthless in China and Russia and NATO has called for a National Currency. Look at what happened to Britain when they lost the title of being the world currency. No longer a super power…no longer anything. Look at the past to look at the future and you will see life as we know it is over

SRSrocco writes: “Lastly, you say the price of silver has gone nowhere in the past 5 years? Are you serious.”

Yes I am serious. In November 2009 silver was $18.50. Today it is $19.40. Over a 5 year time span I consider that nowhere. Didn’t even keep pace with inflation………..

And sorry for my ignorance but I still don’t understand why the demand is so high and the price is so low. Yes I get derivatives, but why hasn’t physical disconnected from paper with the demand as robust as you say?

Now that the physical horde is depleted, where is the physical coming from? Just doesn’t make sense…..

Think about this: when silver is more the 10 oz above all in sustainable costs for the primary silvers it is vastly overvalued . Therefore, when silver was in the 30s it was beyond pathetically overvalued. When it was in the 40s it was an epic bubble. That is why silver has gone nowhere in 5 years while the stock market is up 200%. I don’t see any mea-culpas from the Gold and Silver community as they continue to promise the absolute end of the world is right around the corner.

There is a reason the biggest money in the world hasn’t gone into silver. There are 1000s of brilliant analysts and investors and most of this really really big money isn’t in silver–and especially at bubble prices like 2010 and 2011. Yeah, the only ones that can possibly be right are the people on this board.

I concede, yo’ure all right. We reached Peak Oil in 1914, 1939, 1956 (and according the wold most forewarned expert at the time) and 2007. And here we are producing more today than 2010 with prices averaging well below 100 a barrel.

And….here we have most majors making serious coinage with oil well below 100 ! And here we have more production than in quite some time. We’ve peaked I tell you. We need 200 a barrel to find new production at least! We are all DOOMED to high oil prices and a crashing Ponzi scheme.

Except one little problem. it’s a step ladder of up and down between demand, supply, and production. When prices get too high, demand destruction comes into play (at the same time growth cap-ex always ramps up). When prices get too low, as they are now, cap-ex slows down and demand picks back up again. This goes on and on and on and on. Unless, of course, there will really be no more notable finds. Good luck with that. At 100 a barrel , plenty of oil can be taken from the earth’s crust. And there is plenty of incentive to do so.

Peak Oil Doomers have been around for a long long time. It’s going to be different this time, right? Clearly, with oil crashing to 93 from 105 and down from 150 in 2007 the price and auction house of millions of investors apparently agree with me—and you Peak Oil theorists are sitting very alone, and on huge gold and silver losses as the FINAL CRASH just never materializes. Why is that?

Thanks jack for finally admitting that it took a lot of courage on your part to do that.. Especially since you shared all your vast geological knowledge and yrs of experience with us and not crap I could find in 5 min on Wikipedia.. Also not acknowledging that oil prices will continue to climb no matter what bc of a declining net energy if the EROEI is BS as you say when does it matter 1/10 1/5 1/1 -1/1 then will it matter? Have a nice life jack!

Your most welcome Adam. I don’t want to spend hours explaining the life of Oil to you. I can see you’ve read enough headlines to argue about things for the rest of your life. You are not the first fool who has been more than convinced we have run out of cheap oil and the economy is going to be doomed because of it. Think about your bet on history here is all I’m asking you: and how has that bet played out over decades of Peak Oil theories thus far?

Just really think about it. I don’t need to give you reams of information for you to really ponder that you are shorting all of humanity and that has been a bad call for 1000s of years.

Good luck. I’ll check back here in a few years for ya! Of course, you’ll just be another one that bites the dustbins of history by then with yet another false warning that the end is nigh.

All I hear is arrogant spewage, no facts or data at all regarding this huge untapped inventory. Fiat currencies all fail in the end regardless of crude prices or stock markets, et ceterq. So, untapped crude will not save the fiat dollar from quickly diminishing purchasing power. We would already be past the breaking point if not for the rest of the world’s bad economic choices. Silver and gold have been real money since Genesis, no commodity including crude can change history.

You are a complete idiot jack WHERE IS THE DATA YOU HAVE FROM DECADES OF YOUR WORK AS A GEOLOGIST IN OIL!!!!! Where the fuck is it!!!!! PLEASE PROVIDE IT!!!! Tell me where these 3 huge discoveries where made!!! ANY information will be very appreciated at this point !!!! Next thing you’ll tell all of us there is no such thing as declining ore grades

Jack
Since you have the inside track on oil and what’s coming next in the industry and since you have provided absolutely no data for us fools to use what are your price predictions by the end of this decade and the decade after that? Just curious

The “discussion” for the last 2/3 of the posts got away completely from the article posted at the top.

Most posts are opinion; some better informed than others. The ones that are something other than opinion are combative “I’m right and your wrong” ego fluff. I have a degree in Geology and have been reading many hundreds if not thousands of articles for few years on socioeconomic issues, energy, and PM’s. I communicate with several authors. And I’m older than most who post here, i.e. I’ve been studying this for a long time. But what I have to communicate is also an opinion. But in a few years or less I suspect time will prove this to be correct:

*The well-documented, highly manipulated [and therefore artificially low] prices of gold and silver are seen as a bargain to many, and the bullion buying by non-industry interests has, as the article states, greatly increased. Regardless of anything other than unavailability this will continue at these prices, and may increase.

*Low prices have shaken out the holdings of those who now want to play the equities markets, as they feel they have been left out of the party. For those going in now I hope you don’t get hurt, but you are coming in at a time the bubble is well inflated.

*If gold and silver prices were not manipulated the prices would take off like crazy…and the buying would accelerate. Why? Everyone wants to buy something that is going up in price/value. A lot of individuals would rather just be saving, like with a CD earning 5% interest, but since that isn’t possible they are forced into the stock/equities markets…or lose money to inflation & fees in a financial institution. My 86 year old mother shouldn’t have to screw with ever-more complex fiat investment “vehicles”; it is very stressful to her.

*When, not if the prices of gold and silver can’t be manipulated downward any longer, the dollar is in deep s___, and the fed reserve, U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and a lot of other financial institutions’ brightest minds know this. Of course all the worlds economies are inextricably interconnected. If the dollar is in trouble China, Russia, Japan, U.K., EU…just about every economy will be in deep trouble.

*I could go on and on, and could go into a lot more detail. Anyone that thinks everything is just fine because we have abundant energy for a long time at the current prices, and mankind is so ingenious we will sidestep the plethora of problems facing us…I’ll assure you they are coming, they can’t be stopped, and in fact some sort of “cleansing” is needed. But it will be a very painful chapter in mankind’s history.

Btw… Is this now an oil topic now? I’m talking about Silver. Sure, the oil price is somehow linked to the Silver price but i don’t expect the oil price having a major impact on the Gold and Silver price in the years to come. If there will be major movements in the PMs to the upside, it will rather have other reasons.
Geopolitical risks, stockmarket crash or just simply a PM delivery default on either Comex or LBMA are more likely going to impact the PM prices in the years to come.

I started investing in physical PM about a year ago. I’ve read lots of “the world is doomed” articles and seen as many “no it’s not” videos. The rhetoric from both sides has gotten tiring. However….I believe debt, specifically that of the USA, cannot continue indefinitely.

For insurance (there’s that word again), i spend only around $2000 annually of physical PM. I will not become a millionaire of them, but i’m not sinking my life’s saving into them either.

Why is Jack spending so much time and energy on this blog trying to refute Peak Oil? Whether oil comes from dead dinosaurs (no new production), or is abiotic (continually created within the earth) we are pumping it at a rate that will deplete it. What does oil, it’s availability, price, and cost of production have to do with the worldwide giant Ponzi scheme of bankers creating worthless currencies from nothing and charging the world ‘interest’ on every cent created? Don’t worry about oil, there is nothing whatsoever we, as individuals can do about it. Rather, lets help our world out bit by removing the power behind the parasitic banking families that own and control governments, media, academia, the ‘entertainment’ industry, medical industry, agriculture, etc etc etc. Let’s get the monkey off of our collective backs and shatter the yoke around our necks : end central banking, fiat currencies, and fractional reserve banking, the ways and means of our enslavement.

Tired of CEO’s making $250 million and line level folks get $8/hr? Tired of reading about $38 million Ferrari’s and $100 million homes? Tired of tax rates based on RE constantly going up? Tired of seeing your purchasing power constantly being diminished? Restoring honest money destroys all of this by making it impossible. Our entire fake world where immorality, addictions, division, distraction, dumbing down and making humans dependent and unable to think is promoted and glorified, is the result of bankers control over every aspect of our lives. This is why we stack, to end this madness and evil. Stack on brothers and sisters, stack on! And, keep your eye on the prize!

Actually, ENERGY has everything to do with the future of our world. My research focuses on how ENERGY will impact the precious metals, mining and overall economy. The only reason why the ELITE have power via their Fiat Monetary system is due to the growing energy supply… which is now peaking.

Without a growing energy supply, Paper currencies and assets come under severe pressure. To understand where we are heading… one must understand energy.

Lastly, the peak and decline of cheap oil destroys the valuations of most paper assets, which causes a mad rush into anything physical. However, gold and silver will be the better choices as many physical assets also derive their value from a growing energy supply.