What the Dems Need to Do to Win

Both in and out of Washington, Democrats and Republicans are sounding
the same tune: Democrats are well on their way to winning this fall's
House elections.

"I think the chances are excellent," said
Connecticut Democrat Rosa DeLauro. The No. 2 Democrat in House, Whip
Steny Hoyer, says some members of the GOP have already been coming up
to him and saying they only wish he was in line to become Speaker
rather than House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, who disagrees with
Republicans on even more issues than Hoyer. In a meeting with a
handful of lawmakers and the Australian Prime Minister, California
Republican David Drier, one of the closest allies to House Speaker
Dennis Hastert, accidentally referred to "Speaker Pelosi," leading to
chuckles from both Hastert and Pelosi.

Of course, five months remain before the elections, so the political
dynamics could change. But the discussion among Democratic
strategists and pols now is not whether they can win, but how to
maintain their lead in the polls. There's at least three things
Democrats agree the party needs to do to keep that lead and win in November.

1. Have a plan, sort of

Pelosi told TIME last week, "It's not about the Republicans anymore,
now [the voters] will make a judgment about us."
As party leaders debate just how Democrats should present themselves
as the alternative to the GOP, Pelosi has been pushing
to talk more about their vision for the country and recently put out
a list of initiatives Democrats would pursue were they to seize control: raising
the minimum wage, cutting student loan interest rates, reducing
government subsidies to oil companies and instituting so-called pay-as-you go budget principles, meaning every increase in spending
would be offset by either a tax increase or a cut in some other
spending program. And Democrats will put out a plan calling for
increased spending on education and other domestic policy changes
later this month. "If you look at the polling in the last few years, it points in the same direction," says Will Marshall, head of the centrist Progressive Policy Institute in Washington. "Even though the public is losing confidence in Republicans, they’re not sure what the Democrats have to offer. Filling that vacuum is critically important."

On the biggest issue of the day, Iraq, Democrats have said little
that distinguishes them from the GOP. After two months of discussion earlier this year, the party announced a platform that offered little beyond pushing for
the Iraqis to make moves toward their own sovereignty, a policy the
Bush administration is already pursuing. And the loudest voices in
the party on Iraq have been people pushing for an accelerated
pullout, such as Pelosi and Senator John Kerry, which worries some
strategists who think those positions reinforce the views of many
Americans that Democrats aren't as strong on security issues.

2. Don't get too giddy

Rahm Emanuel, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee, has been calling friends in recent weeks and saying things
like "I'm worried. I think expectations are too high." Debbie
Wasserman-Shultz, a Florida Democrat who is working closely with
Emanuel on the election effort, said she tries to keep her enthusiasm
to herself. "The hope, I jam it in a little compartment in my heart,"
she said. "I take it out every once in a while and then I jam it back
in and I get back to work."

The DCCC currently has about $20 million on hand, similar to its
Republican counterpart, but the Republican National Committee has
about $45 million to the DNC's $9 million. So party advisors are telling local
candidates to stay on the phone constantly to raise money. They're
advising them that no matter how strong their poll numbers they
need to be mentally and financially prepared for August, when
Democrats think Republicans will launch millions in negative ads
against individual candidates.

Of course, this message isn't always getting through. Some
Democrats are already campaigning for positions they would take if Democrats control Congress. James Clyburn, a South Carolina Democrat who is number three in the leadership as conference chairman, has started asking colleagues to support him in a campaign to be the whip in a Democrat congress, a job Emanuel would be a very strong contender for if Democrats won the House.

3. Learn Anger Management

As Democrats have gotten more confident, they've started bragging
about all the hearings, investigations and subpoenas they will drown
the Bush administration with if they take back the House. Pelosi
declared one of the great things to be in the majority would be
"subpoena power." Democratic House candidates are not thrilled, and
party strategists say this is not a smart tactic. "I don't think it's
helpful to get into the sort of scare tactics of abusing subpoena
power," said Dianne Farrell, who is running for a House seat in
Southern Connecticut. "The American people are not looking for a
scapegoat."

Early last month, Pelosi told colleagues she would not support any
effort to impeach President Bush. At the same time, John Conyers, a
Michigan Democrat who has been the most enthusiastic supporter of that
idea, took down a reference to impeachment from his website.
Democratic strategists have advised the party to use the term
"oversight," suggesting they will be a check on the GOP, rather
than the more ominous "hearings."

But Democrats will have a hard time reining in everyone on this score. Senator Russ Feingold still wants to censure President Bush for his warrantless domestic
surveillance program, and John Conyers wrote an op-ed in the
Washington Post last month that made it very clear that he still
thinks impeachment could be appropriate.

Doing all these things is of course no guarantee of victory. "Rahm
can run as aggressive an operation as possible and raise as much
money as possible and whip candidates into shape," said one
Democratic strategist, "but he can't make up the wave. Bush is the
wave. These races are all about Bush."