Failure to Grow: Global Oil Supply

Using the latest data through June, from EIA Washington, global production of crude oil is currently averaging 73.856 mbpd in 2011. The loss of Libyan production has been offset this year by increased production from Saudi Arabia. (It remains unclear how sustainable Saudi production can be, currently at 9.840 mbpd. Saudi production has been highly variable this year, with month to month swings as much as 1 mbpd). Meanwhile, declining production from Mexico, the North Sea, continues to weigh.

As readers study this chart, they might consider the broader implications to the global economy. For example, all of the extraordinary growth in Emerging Market oil demand since 2005, especially from China, has been created not by new oil supply-but from declining oil demand in OECD countries. As I have discussed previously, Emerging Market economies can afford higher oil prices than OECD countries. Yes, non-OECD oil demand is less elastic than OECD oil demand.

That flat, global oil supply continues to be bid away from the West is also a topic covered briefly in my co-written piece with Chris Nelder, at the Harvard Business Review, Yes There Will Be Oil, But at What Price?