Since the usefulness of Twitter has been raised elsewhere on the board, I am moved to bring up this analysis. It looks like it is the beginnings of something potentially incredibly useful. I do not, at this time claim to be able to make much sense of it.

You have to start with some basic tests:Does twitter represent a normal distribution of the UK voting public?Is the volume of chat proportionate to voting intentions?Is there a sizeable chunk of the voting public that pay no attention to twitter?

diy wrote:You have to start with some basic tests:Does twitter represent a normal distribution of the UK voting public?

I don't think that need matter: the question is of whether it is usefully representative of normal people.

Is the volume of chat proportionate to voting intentions?

Again, that is not the relevant question, the volume of chat suggests the important issues of contention that need to be addressed. Somewhere in that volume, it is likely that intelligent discourse is occurring.

Is there a sizeable chunk of the voting public that pay no attention to twitter?

If I Tweet to little Eric and Eric talks to his Gran and sways her opinion based on what I have Tweeted, does his Gran still pay no attention to Twitter?Likewise if Gran shows Eric where I was wrong* and he returns and explains it then does his Gran have no influence on Twitter?

A similar comparison can be made to Donald Trumps popularity. His approval ratings are up, yet he's treated as total twit on most social media and media platforms.

I'm not sure that is a fair comparison: I'm led to believe that a significant proportion of his following cannot read.

I think you are making the mistake pollsters have been making for years. Humans are a funny bunch, the term "the silent majority" springs to mind.. However, if we were to imagine for a moment that brexit can be stopped, the easiest way for that to happen, is for a political party (new or otherwise) to win a general election and ask mr Barnier, to let us re-join on the terms we had. Or perhaps force some sort of end of negotiation vote.

For that to work requires at least two things:- Anti-brexit voters, vote- the anti-brexit partys' other politics don't put anti-brexit people off

For years it appeared UKIP were very popular, they had a lot of popular vote, same as the greens and to some degree the lib-dems. But have no realistic chance of ever winning the next general election. Thats without considering the status quo could win with a split alternative vote or people don't backlash against the national embarrassment of pulling a 180 (or 360 depending on your view).