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Momentum for the upcoming transportation plebiscite appears to have swung 180 degrees since December, with more Metro Vancouver residents saying they will definitely vote No when the ballots are mailed out this spring, according to a new Insights West poll.

The online poll, conducted from Feb. 12 to 14, found 53 per cent of 653 adults surveyed would vote No if the plebiscite were held today, compared with just 32 per cent who would vote Yes. The findings are a reversal of a December poll, when 52 per cent were in favour and 38 per cent opposed.

"There are a lot of people moving from the Yes to the definite No side and that's problematic because we only have a few weeks left," said Mario Canseco, of Insights West. "We're running out of time. More people right now are saying we shouldn't have done this in the first place."

The latest poll follows a Trans-Link decision last week to replace CEO Ian Jarvis, but continue to pay his salary until June 2016. This seems to have bolstered the No side, which has based its campaign on TransLink's woes, saying the transportation authority should not be trusted with any more public money.

The plebiscite, which will be conducted by mail-in ballot between March 16 and May 29, will ask the public to support a 0.5 per cent sales tax increase - dubbed the Metro Vancouver congestion improvement tax - which is expected to generate $250 million annually for transit projects across the region.

The poll suggests 82 per cent of No voters lack confidence in TransLink to do a good job to ensure the proposed projects go ahead, while 74 per cent say there are other ways to fund them. Forty-three per cent of respondents, meanwhile, say they wanted to send a message to TransLink and the mayor's council by voting No.

TransLink has also influenced the Yes side. But while 70 per cent of Yes voters say they are not satisfied with TransLink's performance, they believe the plebiscite is the best way to deal with the region's transit problems. "Even if they're voting Yes, they're holding their noses," Canseco said.

Iain Black, president of the Vancouver Board of Trade and co-chairman of the Better Transit and Transportation Coalition, acknowledged the perception of TransLink is a challenge. However, he believes the coalition still has time to gain the public's support.

"This is an 11-week campaign and three, four, five weeks from now we're going to be talking about something else," he said. "When the campaign kicks off for those who want it to pass, that's when we'll see the difference. Information is a powerful motivator."

But Canseco noted the stakes are high. Drivers and middleincome earners are least likely to vote Yes, while those aged 18 to 34 are evenly split with 46 per cent in favour and 45 per cent opposed. More than half of those who bike or walk, meanwhile, will vote Yes.

This jives with what's happening in cities across Metro: while Richmond and Vancouver voters support the idea of a transit tax, those in areas like Maple Ridge and the North Shore aren't that enthusiastic because they don't see much in the plan for them.

But most surprising, Canseco said, are suggestions that people living south of the Fraser River will vote No even though they have the most to gain.

"It's really quite shocking," he said. "(Vancouver Mayor Gregor) Robertson has been talking about it vehemently and the numbers in the city are quite high. But it's not the case in Surrey. Voters who would benefit are saying No to it."

The poll results follow a major Yes-side launch in Surrey last week, in which the mayor, council, business community and students called on local residents to support the proposed tax.

Canseco said Mayor Linda Hepner's announcement that she will build light rail even if the plebiscite fails may have been a factor in the latest poll results.

But Black insists it's still "early days" and the Yes campaign has yet to ramp up.

The coalition, which welcomed the YWCA as its 100th member Thursday, plans to provide resources, such as letters and pamphlets, to be distributed to its group's employees. He estimates the coalition has the potential to reach up to 350,000 people.

"This is not about playing a high-level political partisan game," he said.

"It's about letting residents know this impacts them. This boils down to people and their communities."

The survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Travelling from Newton to Vancouver by car and public transit - Who wins?

If you wanted to go from 68th Avenue and 132 Street in Surrey to Waterfront Station in downtown Vancouver, what would be faster, driving or transit?

To test the scenario, The Vancouver Sun's video department set up a challenge. A rush-hour trip from Newton to downtown Vancouver by car, and by bus and SkyTrain. The day of choice? A Thursday. No weekend jaunts. Peak travel.

Videographer Mark Yuen boarded a Coast Mountain bus at 7:40 a.m., and videographer Bill Inglee and chief digital news editor Dean Broughton also left the intersection of 132 Street and 68 Avenue at 7:40 a.m. The winner? Yuen. To watch the trip unfold, go to vancouversun. com and look for the Transit Challenge.

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