This year, the property market is tucking like a roller coaster to buy a house like gambling control.

According to CNNs public name, the nationwide hot wind of buying houses lasted for more than three years, and finally came to an abrupt end in the second half of 2018. Unsatisfied with the decline in house prices, old owners in some places smashed the sales offices of housing enterprises.

In 2018, the property market is like a roller coaster, and buying a house is more like a gamble. Somebody made such a joke.

Two days of ice and fire in the first half of the year

On May 7, 2018, Xuhui Baolong East Lake City, Hangzhou opened its housing selection. Although it is located 40 kilometers east of the prosperous area of West Lake, it still attracts nearly 3,000 people to sign up, 16 people grab a house, and the winning rate is only 6%.

A 98-year-old grandmother was crowded in the crowd and successfully bought a 89 square metre new house by rocking the horn.

It is not uncommon for the whole family to get a thorough understanding of the policy, just like a loving couple who divorce to buy a house. Because of the price limit policy, new houses in some cities are cheaper than those in the surrounding second-hand houses. This temptation makes people believe that buying is earning.

In the first half of 2018, many cities, such as Hangzhou, Xian, Chengdu and Changsha, had the phenomenon that the rate of winning a lottery was less than 10%. The probability of buying a new house was almost the same as that of a book from Henan and Shandong, which had a large population.

Some people even wonder if the era of ten thousand people shake the trumpet is really coming.

However, looking at the whole country, the real estate market during that period was like summer weather, where drought killed and waterlogging killed.

Buyers of second, third and fourth-tier cities are still immersed in the expectation that buying houses will rise, while first-tier cities have awakened, and the surrounding property market has even begun to go into depression.

In October 2018, in front of the closed chain store in Yanjiao, a three-wheeled truck was parked. The owner of the truck sat on the ground and buried his head deep in his arms.

In March 2018, he Yu and his wife grabbed the down payment from their parents and spent 3.2 million yuan on an 80-square-meter apartment near the Sixth Ring Road in Beijing.

Two years ago, He Yu took a fancy to a flat of the same size and size in the same residential area. The price was only 2 million yuan, but because the owners starting price of sitting on the floor had risen by 100,000 yuan, the couple had no chance to buy it. Who would have thought that the house price would fly away from here?

Later, on March 17, 2017, Beijings so-called the most stringent in history new housing market regulation policy set the highest historic transaction price of the two-bedroom in this district at 3.9 million, and slowly fell back to 3.2 million.

He Yu is not sure whether he earned 700,000 yuan or lost 1.2 million yuan. His only certainty is that the house price is like a roller coaster. He wanted to buy a home to live in peace, but he took part in an adventure gambling.

Looking back, Beijing still has time to wake up. The property market around Beijing has fallen directly from one dream to another.

For example, Yanjiao, which is close to Beijing, introduced a series of restriction policies in March, April and June 2017 to break the Yanjiao property market into ice caves. The northwest-facing house with one room and one hall in Tianyangcheng, Yanjiao, was sold for 31,000 per square meter in March 2017 and only 15,000 per square meter in September 2018, a decline of 50%.

Compared with March 2017, Yanjiao Tianyangchengs house price has been cut at the waist. Photo Source: Chain Home APP Screenshots

Watershed of Housing Market in the Second Half of the Year

House prices have fallen like a mountain. When they want to rise, they are like wild horses, and the reins of regulation and control policies can not be pulled back.

Since September 30, 2016, Beijing issued this round of tightening regulation and control policies of the real estate market, the regulation and control of the national real estate market has not stopped, and reached its peak in 2018.

The report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows that since 2018, the real estate regulation policy has been increasing, and the number of real estate regulation has reached 405 times in China, up nearly 80% compared with the same period in 2017. Almost every day, a measure has been introduced to refresh the historical record.

There are more and more patterns of regulation and control, from limited purchase, limited price, limited loan, limited sale to limited divorce, Limited new settlements, limited companies, limited minors, to the same right of rent and sale, purchase and rent simultaneously, with the intention of curbing all the seemingly speculative housing.

Finally, the turning point came on the last day of July 2018.

On this day, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee issued a clear regulatory signal: resolutely curb the rise of housing prices.

Sensitive people immediately found that the new formulation was less too fast than the curbing the excessive rise in house prices proposed in the March 2017 government work report. If the expression of too fast still has considerable flexibility to operate, then the new expression will no longer leave any room, neither rising nor rising.

According to the shell research institute, the monthly listing prices of 100 cities fell by 19 cities from March to May 2018, 25 in June and 19 in July, and increased sharply to 47 cities in August.

More and more buildings are joining the ranks of price reduction. In September, Hengda first launched a nationwide sales promotion discount, with 8.9% discount for residential buildings and 6% discount for shops; a project in Taihe gave a relatively large discount; if the buyers bought the whole house, the house price was given a 7% discount; Sunshine City opened a 100 billion offensive special purchase season, and formulated different price reduction strategies according to the different regions.

But something unexpected happened.

Once firmly believed that reinforced concrete brick is the best tool to deal with inflation. Buyers cant stand falling house prices and angrily hit the bricks in their hands at the developers.

In October 2018, a sales office in Biguiyuan, Shangrao, Jiangxi Province, was smashed because developers cut prices from 10,000 to 7,000 yuan per square meter, triggering a large number of old owners to protect their rights.

Some owners lost 2.3 million if they failed to make the mortgage. Some owners bought five apartments, and they were very emotional. They shouted Check out, threw eggs at the sales office, crashed into the door of the sales office, and clashed with the security guards. Some people were dragged ten meters away and even trampled into hospitals in the process of protecting human rights.

The owner was excited when a sales office in Biguiyuan, Shangrao, Jiangxi Province, was smashed.

In Hangzhou, Hefei and other places, there has also been a phenomenon of owners besieging sales offices because of house price reduction.

Some people ridicule that on National Day 2016, many people went out to play and came back to find that not only can not afford to buy a house, but also have no qualification to buy a house. On National Day this year, many people went out to play and came back to find that not only was there more houses, but many sales offices were smashed.

Developers struggle through the winter

Developers cant blame the people who buy houses for turning their faces. After all, the money people throw into the real estate market has made a large number of real estate enterprises.

In the past two years, the market has been very good. Large and small housing enterprises have learned to set a small goal first. Large Housing enterprises are rushing toward a trillion sales volume. Small Housing enterprises in the corner have also boldly shouted out a goal of 100 billion yuan.

We should know that in 2017, the top three gardens, Biguiyuan, Vanke and Hengda have annual sales of only over 500 billion yuan.

But by 2018, the problem has arisen.

With the deepening of the regulation and control of the real estate market and the promotion of de-leveraging, the financing difficulties of real estate enterprises have become a common problem. The bank credit contraction, the blockade of land financing channels, the suspension of domestic debt issuance, the rising cost of overseas debt issuance and trust financing.

For example, Fortune Real Estate has failed to issue debt four times in a row since this year, so it has to fight for breathing space on capital by means of additional equity issue.

Hengda, for example, has issued bonds at an annual interest rate of 13.75% in November, nearly double that of the past, which shows how urgent the desire for funds is.

In addition to market financing, the source of funds is sales repayment. But when the house is not selling well, the repayment is also a problem. To this end, some developers are willing to operate irregularly.

In October 2018, a sales person in Peacock City, a branch of Huaxia Happy Banner, said that in Dachang County around Beijing, people who are not qualified to buy houses can also buy ordinary houses. Need to pay the full amount, and then pay the house, until the social security tax certificate is enough to transfer. But what if the buyer pays the full amount but fails to get the property right of the house? Sales Shun this point.

In December 2018, a sales person in Beijing revealed that the building supported the down payment installment, with half in the early period and half in the remaining years.

At the end of the year, all developers are a routine, in the sprint task, accelerate the repayment. The salesman said.

For housing companies, if they cant get enough money and pay back slowly, they can only lie in the dried-up fund pool and wait for rescue. Coupled with heavy debt, its harder to breathe.

October 2018, Yanjiao Sales Street, several stores in the shop outside the shop did not see a tenant. Qiu Yu, a journalist from China New Zealand.com

In the first half of this year, the asset-liability ratio of real estate enterprises reached 80% (red line). A few of them were unable to support the expansion of their scale because of the high leverage ratio, which eventually led to cash flow breakdown and debt default. Liu Zhifeng, president of China Real Estate Association, said.

Look at Fuli Real Estate, whose third-quarter report of 2018 shows that interest-bearing liabilities are as high as 155.6 billion yuan. The Book fund of about 6.3 billion yuan is not enough to cover the financial cost of the next year.

According to Hengda Research Institute, in the first half of 2018, excluding private financing and loans from similar financial institutions, the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of Chinese Housing enterprises reached 1.92 trillion yuan, equivalent to one quarter of Chinas GDP. The next four years will be a period of concentrated debt payment, and the financial pressure of Housing enterprises will continue to increase.

If the debt expansion in the upstream period of the real estate market is a sharp weapon for overtaking in the curve, then the debt expansion in the downstream period will undoubtedly be a mine for itself.

Not long ago, Vanke, a real estate giant, shouted the slogan Live and made his peers tremble. And whether Vanke is crying miserably or crying bitterly, if even Vanke, with low debt and healthy cash flow, cant survive, how can a large number of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises survive the winter?

DATA FIGURE: People in Fuzhou pass by the Vanke Building Site. Photographed by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Will regulation loosen?

Another subtle change took place in November 2018, when housing financing showed signs of recovery.

Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that in November, a number of real estate companies nationwide were densely authorized to issue large amounts of financing, totalling more than 100 billion yuan. Dozens of real estate companies, such as Vanke, Poly, Sunshine City and New Town Holdings, obtained financing through various forms.

Mortgage rates have also begun to brake. The interest rates of some banks in many first-tier and second-tier cities have been lowered, and the speed of lending has generally accelerated.

According to Rong360s latest report, in November, the average interest rate of the first home loan in China was 5.71%, which was the same as last month for the first time. Since 2017, the interest rate of the first home loan in China has increased for 22 months.

Regulatory policies have also been significantly reduced. According to incomplete statistics, since November, real estate regulation policies have been issued about 20 times, which is significantly lower than the previous average of 40 times per month.

Can the frequent access of Housing enterprises to financing, the reduction of mortgage interest rates and the reduction of regulatory policies be seen as a harbinger of deregulation?

The recent approval of bond issuance by housing enterprises has indeed improved, but it can not be directly understood as deregulation. 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute Chief Analyst Zhang Bo said.

Firstly, the financing shortage in the first three quarters caused a sharp increase in the financing pressure in the fourth quarter. Under the background of the demand for development funds in front of many housing enterprises and the pressure of repayment of debts after that, financing can only become more radical; secondly, from the point of view of the states supervision of housing enterprisesfunds, there is no obvious signal of loosening. He said.

DATA FIGURE: Residents of a shanty town in Hohhot received the first compensation for collection and demolition. Photographer Liu Wenhua, China News Agency

Zhang Bo believes that the underlying reason for the reduction of mortgage interest rates is not the relaxation of regulation. From the point of view of the time and rhythm of the current mortgage rate reduction, the central bank has a direct relationship with the targeted reduction and release of market liquidity in the second half of the year. There is still room for future interest rate reduction, especially for the first mortgage rate, which is expected to continue to increase.

In terms of regulatory policies, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Central Plains Real Estate, believes that the significant slowdown in house price increases is the main reason for the reduction of restrictive policies. However, although the regulatory policy has reached the bottom, it will still run at the bottom for some time.

On July 31, this year, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee clearly put forward the idea of Resolutely Curbing the rise of house prices, which means that the regulation and control can not change in three to five months, and it is a big probability event that lasts for about three quarters. Nowadays, the policy of regulation and control has stabilized, and it will not add more weight, but it will not relax for the time being. Yang Hongxu, vice president of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said.

Many people are concerned about the future of housing prices?

A report released by the Academy of Social Sciences in December pointed out that a small adjustment in the real estate market next year is a big probability event. In the next year, the upward pressure on the overall listing market of the first and second-tier cities will increase, and the future trend will be dominated by growth; the downward pressure on the third and fourth-tier cities will increase, and inventory may increase again.

Looking back over the past 10 years, there have been two dramatic cooling downs in the national housing market, one in 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, and the other in 2014, because of the intensification of downward economic pressure, but the two are only temporary callbacks in the general trend of rising house prices.

In 2018, whether it is the opening of the long-term downward channel of the real estate market or the beginning of another short-term cycle of ups and downs, we may have to wait five or ten years before we can see clearly.