Why better luck, not tough love, has keyed Jon Lester's improvement

Scott Lauber Sunday, September 16, 2012

TORONTO -- Without question, it was the low point of Jon Lester's season.

But, according to Bobby Valentine, it may have been the turning point, too.

On July 22, Lester was left in a game for four innings to absorb an 11-run beating by the Blue Jays at Fenway Park. The career-worst pounding hiked his ERA to 5.49 and prompted speculation that he may be temporarily removed from the rotation in order to work out his problems. But Lester made his next start six days later in New York, and since then, he's 4-3 with a 4.05 ERA in nine starts. It still isn't ace-like, but given his earlier struggles, it's far more of what the Red Sox have come to expect from Lester over the past few seasons.

So, to what can we attribute the improvement?

“Probably when I left him in. Yeah, that probably changed his year," Valentine said, straight-faced. "He’s pitched a lot better since then. He started throwing his curveball harder. He hasn’t worried about runners as much. He’s throwing more changeups."

Statistically speaking, that doesn't appear to be quite accurate. According to the Brooks Baseball database, the average velocity on Lester's curveball in 20 starts through the pummeling by the Blue Jays was 76.153 mph, a tick faster than the average of 75.935 mph in his last nine starts. Also, Lester threw an average of 14.6 changeups per start through July 22, including at least 20 in five of 10 starts leading up to that game. Since then, he has averaged only 9.67 changeups per start, topping out at 16 on Aug. 30 against the Angels.

More likely, Lester's turnaround can be chalked up to better luck, something Valentine later noted.

"Balls have found the gloves a few more times, too," he said.

Indeed, through July 22, opposing hitters were batting .334 on balls put in play against Lester. Since then, they're hitting only .286, meaning fewer batted balls are finding holes in the defense.