Pryor ads hit Cotton on Medicare—Sabato’s top six overrated races of 2014—EMILY’s List goes on offense against McConnell—AFP buys big in four races this week—Paul, Huckabee to N.H.

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FIRST IN SCORE—PRYOR ADS HIT COTTON ON MEDICARE: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor’s campaign is out with two new ads in Arkansas today, both featuring women criticizing GOP Rep. Tom Cotton on Medicare. The ads are part of a six-figure buy and will run statewide on broadcast television. The first ad, “Linda,” features an older woman: “Retirement is just around the corner for us. That’s why I was so concerned when I read Congressman Cotton voted to change Medicare into a voucher system,” she says. The second, “Courtney,” has a younger woman talking about the effect of Medicare reform on her parents and grandparents: “It says here that Cotton voted in Congress to change Medicare into a voucher system that will increase out of pocket expenses for every senior in Arkansas, thousands of dollars every year,” she says. “My grandma and grandpa can’t afford that, and neither can my parents.” Pryor is perhaps national Republicans’ #1 target this year—and he’s already been the target of a slew of outside ads in the race. Watch both ads: http://bit.ly/1ka6jN8 and http://bit.ly/1ka6kAt

THE SIX MOST OVERRATED RACES, via Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: “1. Kentucky Senate: The odds of McConnell, even with his weak approval ratings, losing either the primary or general election are not impressive. … 2. Texas Governor: Davis’s chances of winning are the same now as they were a couple months ago—tiny. In our Crystal Ball election ratings, we call this race “Safe Republican” … by November, we’ll guess many will wonder what all the fuss was about. … 3. New York Governor: The Democrat, incumbent Andrew Cuomo, seems just about invincible … 4. Virginia Senate: If Virginia bordered, say, Montana, as opposed to the District of Columbia, we suspect we’d be hearing less about it. … 5 and 6. Ohio and Wisconsin Governor: Govs. John Kasich and Scott Walker … both have excellent chances of winning reelection in 2014, contrary to what might be reported elsewhere. We suspect polls will remain somewhat close in these races until the end, but it’s hard to see their Democratic opponents, Ed FitzGerald (Ohio) and Mary Burke (Wisconsin), getting to the statehouse.” http://politi.co/1n9nkUA

SCORE PREVIEW—EMILY’s LIST GOES ON OFFENSE AGAINST MCCONNELL: On the 21st anniversary of the Family Medical Leave Act, the pro-Democratic women’s group EMILY’s List is using the issue to hit Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The group is launching an online effort to hit McConnell over his opposition to the law when it first passed. “When Mitch McConnell voted against the Family Medical Leave Act, he voted against … taking maternity leave, parents caring for sick children, caring for aging parents,” one online display ad says. EMILY’s List has endorsed McConnell’s Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, in Kentucky’s Senate race.

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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to eschultheis@politico.com or tweet them to @emilyrs.

AS CHRISTIE FALLS, WALKER RISES: POLITICO’s Anna Palmer looks at one person in particular who gains from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s ongoing Bridgegate troubles: “Republican strategists say no one is in a better position to get a boost from the Christie Bridgegate scandal than Walker, who stepped into the national spotlight … when he won a [2012] union-fueled recall election in Wisconsin. In conversations about the 2016 field with Republican strategists, operatives and donors in the weeks since the scandal first gripped the Christie administration, many volunteered Walker as the potential candidate they plan to watch and, unprompted, said he is getting renewed attention in conservative circles. ... Walker’s reputation is as a conservative’s conservative who can still win over moderates. That’s an attractive combination for party insiders who need a candidate who can survive a GOP primary and still pivot to the national stage with broad appeal.” http://politi.co/1cTPIJz

AFP GOES BIG IN SENATE, HOUSE RACES: The conservative group Americans for Prosperity has had an expensive week—and it’s only Wednesday. The group is going in big against four incumbent Democrats: it’s launching a three-week Obamacare-related buy against Mark Pryor in Arkansas (http://wapo.st/1ka75K6), dropped $1.4 million on anti-Kay Hagan ads in North Carolina (http://politi.co/1ka7qfI), began running an ad against West Virginia Rep. Nick Rahall (http://bit.ly/1ka7BI3) and today will launch a $150,000, three-week buy in GOP Rep. Steve Southerland’s Florida district (http://bit.ly/1ka85h8). AFP will release the details of its Florida ad later this morning, so stay tuned for that. The group has already proven itself to be one of the biggest outside GOP players of 2014—and unlike several of the other big-spending GOP groups, it’s setting its sights on hitting Democrats rather than incumbent GOP members, making it a potent part of the early general-election landscape.

RETIREMENT DU JOUR—ANDREWS RESIGNS, PAVES WAY FOR NORCROSS: New Jersey Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews is resigning from Congress to take a job with a law firm in Philadelphia, he announced Tuesday, opening up the district he’s held for more than two decades. State Sen. Donald Norcross quickly announced his candidacy after Andrews’s announcement, and is already getting the backing of much of New Jersey’s Democratic establishment. Senate President Stephen Sweeney, Assembly Majority Leader Louis Greenwald and state Sen. Fred Madden, the Gloucester County Democratic chairman, have all backed Norcross for the reliably blue district. http://bit.ly/1n9nICE

GRANITE STATE ALERT—Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will speak at a Citizens United/Americans for Prosperity event in Manchester on April 12. http://bit.ly/1cTNeef

LIGHTER CLICK—In honor of Jay Leno’s final days on “The Tonight Show,” the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University rounded up his top 20 political joke targets of all time. Topping the list: former Presidents Bill Clinton (4,607 jokes) and George W. Bush (3,239 jokes): http://bit.ly/1ka45NG

ACROSS THE MAP—Here are Score’s top quick takes from races around the country:

SENATE—

-NH-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters is launching a $220,000 TV ad campaign in New Hampshire against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. http://politi.co/1jbhvsv

CODA—QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It's true: I'm not a Belieber.” –Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, who said on a local radio show Tuesday that he’d sign a petition to deport Justin Bieber back to Canada http://bit.ly/1ka3Lys

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