HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

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Friday, December 9, 2016

BIAS: Allowing for a pullback between 1.0653 - 1.0710 (max 1.0740) we should see losses resumeResistance: 1.0630 1.0653-79 1.0700-10 1.0725-40Support: 1.0597 1.0575 1.0535-55 1.0503MAIN ANALYSIS: It seems the Wave iii I had not really expected actually worked well. Just before sleeping I saw the break higher and therefore it needed a move into the 1.0865-1.0887 area. The reversal was so sharp that it's very clear that the downside is back on track. At the very most, the 1.0725-40 area will cap. However, I am doubtful about it reaching that high. I suspect the 1.0653-79 area will cap - but maintain observance for bearish reversal indications. Once this pullback is confirmed we should be heading for the 1.0503 low - possibly the 1.0462 area.COUNTER ANALYSIS: A direct break above 1.0750 would surprise and suggest a move to the retracement extreme at 1.0890-1.0922. Only above would break the daily downtrend.Good tradingIan Copsey

Before
I lay my weary head on the pillow, knowing that EURUSD would rally, I made an
estimate in my spreadsheet for the rally to reach 1.0872. I thought the move
higher was going to be slow and I’d get up and check for reversal indications.
Then came the ECB… The estimate was just a rough area (so was just lucky) but
when I saw that precise high on my chart followed by the collapse I kicked
myself for not putting in a sell order…

That
sets the scene for the next trend. So now we need to establish the lower degree
structure – plotted in the spreadsheet – to establish the targets for the next
stage. This is basically the same for all Dollar-currency pairs and should be
approaching targets over the coming months that I set at the beginning of this
year. If there is any odd-one-out then it is AUDUSD that has (as we have seen
over the past 8 months) has decided to go on a sit-down strike and refuse to
form a daily trend. However, having said that, it is conforming to the same
direction for now.

The
question for today, following yesterday’s price shock, is whether it will end
the week in a consolidation or just push on with the trend. Thus, we shall need
to see what Europe will do. Which of the options will occur, I’m not too sure,
but the final outcome is pretty clear.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

It
seems that the market didn’t want to commit to a direction yesterday. It was in
a tizzy, flustered and confused – ending the day almost without any real
motivation. It was only GBPUSD that surprised on the direct follow-through but
then the market had the only pattern – the wedge – to work with. So we have to
work out which side of the market is going to break first. Up or down… down or
up? Perhaps both. Surely, it can’t be a sideways range…

So
basically we have to trade the break. As far as I can see it should
follow-through. That EURUSD made a valiant attempt to conquer the 1.0796 high
was only to be expected. The additional problem we have is that we are having
to rely on lower degree reversal indications rather than a combination of
multiple timeframe indications – but the sideways move has basically excluded
an hourly trend signal.

This
includes AUDUSD also, it’s boomerang very clearly under the influence of a
hefty intake of the amber nectar. The past week has seen it meander into the
Outback, under the sun and can’t seem to find its way. It’ll come good at some
point…

Equally,
EURJPY may well be forming a bullish flag… but wait for the trigger. The only
concern I have is that both pairs will most likely point in the same direction
(bullish vs bearish) and we’ll have to see which of USDJPY or EURUSD
accelerates first…

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

BIAS:I am a little blind sided but following the EUR route, I suspect we can see a deeper decline

Resistance: 1.0115 1.0135 1.0145 1.0170-81

Support: 1.0078 1.0049 1.0012-25 1.0000

MAIN ANALYSIS: If we are to see this pair rally we need a break above 1.0135-45. If seen, then we can look for gains to test the 1.0170-81 resistance. This could provoke a correction - but shouldn't be too deep - and then later see gains above 1.0204 and through 1.0225 to the 1.0250-55 area.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: - While 1.0135-40 caps there is a risk of follow-through lower. A break below 1.0078 would encourage but below 1.0049 would confirm to see losses down to 1.0012-25 for a correction of around 50-60 points and losses down to 1.0000 (allow for 0.9958-80 - although I doubt it will get that low...) Watch for bullish reversal indications from 1.0000 onwards...

It was
hardly a constructive day – but then I hadn’t really expected any spectacular
moves. I’m not really expecting much today. We appear to be in a temporary
lull, not just in Asia, but across the market following the rapid rally in
EURUSD while the rest of the market could only offer somnolent reactions. I
have to admit that there is a certain complexity to the balance of the market –
not the long-term outlook, but more the lower time frame development. I’m pretty
certain that GBPUSD is on the right track. We just need the others to sort
themselves out. However, somehow I feel today could provide enough information
to be able to generate a more directional move.

There
is one element of which we need to be aware. That is the tough year we have
seen overall and the approach to the Holiday Season when, frankly, the market
doesn’t really like to do very much. I tend to find that Decembers are either
tedious and wrapped up in complex corrections or, with the depletion of
liquidity, the alternative is for sharp trending moves. Thus, we shall need to
wait and see which of the two will entertain us over the coming month.

Basically,
we should be looking for key break levels that can trigger the next move –
whether this be corrective, ending or trending.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The
early morning collapse was just what the doctor ordered – except for the
300-point rally thereafter (in EURUSD.) Cobwebs dusted, I now have to pick
myself up and sort it all out. While this was a surprise detour it hasn’t
changed the expected outcome I have had from the start of this year. That
GBPUSD also followed the lead of EURUSD was another pain in the proverbial
backside but, at least, it is still fitting into the targets I have been
pointing to – at least in terms of the maximum pullback.

Overall,
I feel the vast bulk of the move is over and we just need a tail end move to
complete the pullback. This will likely overlap with GBPUSD but the possible
problem could be the identification of the expected reversal. In EURUSD the
rally was so sharp that momentum is not particularly clear and we may only see
a limited hourly bearish divergence – although we do have a 30-minute
divergence…

Even
AUDUSD whipped back higher within a final zigzag in a triple three – well
almost at this point – just to twist the knife into my stomach to show it was
king. This should develop similarly to EURUSD today.

Finally
the JPY pairs… USDJPY provided a decent rally but then a sharp pullback. It may
deepen a little more – but it’s not a requirement. The only reasoning is the
expectation in EURJPY that appears to need a pullback lower first.

So this
could be a tricky day – at least for the first two-thirds of the day – but keep
looking out for the reversal…

Monday, December 5, 2016

All
that trouble the market had trying not to upset the status quo ahead of the Non
Farm Payrolls end up as a damp squid. All that adrenaline, all the build up to
the witching hour came to nothing. Nevertheless, the rest of the development
across the Dollar-currency pairs worked extremely well – with the exception of
AUDUSD where Grannie’s knickers got even bigger…

The
start of the week should be relatively steady. Some pairs haven’t completed
their current development - although most have – and this should see some
initial moves that will set up the next foundation legs to see follow-through.
We should be able to spot the general area where these foundation legs may
stall - within a broad range - so we’re going to have to be patient to then
take advantage of the stronger legs of the coming directional waves. However, I
actually feel that the week will start pretty slowly with the 4-hour Price
Equilibrium Clouds seeing some swings around the Clouds.

Although
I hadn’t expected the outcome in the Aussie on Friday it does provide a strong
expectation now. The deep pullback I referred to on Friday – that then became
even deeper – implies a similar outcome as I was considering in the
mini-version. Thus, we’re still going to get a few swings around the 4-hour
Cloud. Gee, this pair is a hard nut to crack – and I wouldn’t mind betting
it’ll continue that way.

EURJPY
made a new high at 121.89 but has seen some decent losses – ones I had thought
we’d get earlier on. We should see some losses today but later there is a risk
of a deeper pullback – so it tends to echo my comment above about having to be
patient…

FRACTAL FORECASTING

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About Me

I have been around in financial market for over 30 years, the last 23 years as a technical analyst. I focus heavily on price development and structure as it is the only way to generate accurate support and resistance. I use my own adapted form of Elliott Wave along with derivatives of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios to derive support and resistance. I provide a range of reports covering daily & weekly Forex, U.S. Indices.

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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Harmonic Elliott Wave services should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in Harmonic Elliott Wave services are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. It must be understood that Forex trading involves substantial risk of losses as well as profits. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.