May 2012

Bloomberg Sports Anchors Rob Shaw and Julie Alexandria break down four players who have struggled mightily over the first quarter of the season:

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals

Last year a 1-4 performance was ho-hum for Royal phenom Eric Hosmer. These days it’s cause for celebration as it lifts his batting average further above the Mendoza line. The 6 home runs and 25 RBI aren’t all that bad for Hosmer, but with an average of .204, the former top three pick has been a major bust. Also, his power and patience have declined this month, as he boasts just one home run and six walks in May. I still do not suggest dropping Hosmer, because his struggles are not isolated. The entire Royals roster has pretty much struggled, and once guys like Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, and other start hitting, there will be more runners on base and more fastballs in the middle of the plate. I am buying low on Hosmer, and have confidence that he will turn this season around.

Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers

Similar to former Rangers prospect Julio Borbon a few years ago, Dee Gordon gained some fantasy interest with a strong finish to the season, most notably 24 steals in 56 games. However the scouting report is now out on Gordon and you can’t steal bases if you can’t reach base. With a .225 average and .269 on base percentage, Gordon is not getting on base nearly enough. As a result, he is not scoring runs and not getting enough steals to warrant fantasy value. I’m not buying on Gordon in fear that he is a bit more one dimensional than people thought.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks

Billed as the next prolific power hitter to thrive in the desert, Paul Goldschmidt was predicted to blast as many as 30 home runs this season Instead, he has just three round-trippers a quarter of the way through the season. The lack of homers as well as the 19 RBI will be enough for some fantasy managers to drop the bopper. Instead, they should focus on the 12 doubles, which projects to more than 40. Again, you can’t blame Goldschmidt for the fact that his teammates are struggling to reach base. Once those doubles turn to home runs, all will be forgiven.

Ike Davis, 1B, Mets

Finally, Ike Davis makes the list for all the wrong reasons. To his credit, Davis has driven in six RBI over the last six games, but his average is well below the Mendoza line and it will take a heck of a hot streak to return to respectability. The problem for Davis is that he is returning from nearly a full year off from baseball and his timing isn’t where it should be. Furthermore, the opposition is exploiting Davis with junk, throwing him more off-speed itches than anyone else in baseball. The Mets have decided to keep Davis at the Big League level, and this is largely because he remains a better threat than anyone else that they can put in the lineup. I don’t know when, but I do think that Davis will eventually bounce back and end up with a batting average closer to .240 by season’s end.

How about the four game stretch from May 24 to the 27th for White Sox rising slugger Dayan Vicideo. The 23-year-old pounded out eight hits, scored six runs, blasted three home runs, and drove in 10 RBI during that stretch. I actually dropped the top prospect in one of my fantasy leagues for the simple reason that he kills your on base percentage. He has just four walks all season if that is a category in your fantasy league, you basically have to depend on him having a lot of power to make up for it. That certainly could end up being the case and as of now I regret dropping the Cuba native.

It was long in the making and long deserved, but middle reliever extraordinaire Tyler Clippard has finally been promoted to the closer’s role in Washington following the injury to Drew Storen and the implosion of Henry Rodriguez. Clippard was for a long time one of the few middle relievers worth owning in fantasy leagues because of his stellar all-around numbers including ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. A few years ago he even picked up 11 wins. Now he finally gets the glory associated with the ninth inning and he has been perfect in his last four outings, picking up three saves. Clippard’s fantasy value is soaring with saves now within reach.

The last time Sale had fantasy value it was because of our expectation that he would be the 2011 closer after scooping up four saves in 2010. Instead, Sale struggled early and ended up with just eight saves last season as Sergio Santos broke out as the team’s closer. This season Sale became a starting pitcher and after a brief flirtation of him returning to the bullpen, Sale has thrived, pitching at an ace level. On Monday, Sale was at his best, allowing just five total base runners while pitching into the eighth inning. Most notably, he fanned 15 batters, which is easily a career high. It actually might be the best time to sell high on Sale. After all, Sale is now just 13 innings away from reaching last year’s totals. You typically try to avoid the major increase in innings workload, so my guess is that the White Sox will try to limit Sale’s innings for the remainder of the season.

In his debut with the San Diego Padres, Carlos Quentin blasted a double, scored a run, and picked up an RBI. The power is legit, but keep in mind that Quentin is going from back-to-back hitter ballparks first in Arizona then in Chicago’s US Cellular to the ultimate pitcher’s park, PETCO Park. This is very much a streaky hitter, which tells me that the frustration of the cavernous home ballpark could end up wreaking havoc on Quentin’s season. I am not picking Quentin up off the waiver wire, allowing his low average to hurt my competitors.

While it is very difficult for fantasy managers to pick up a franchise player off the waiver wire, they are rookies who can have a major impact that remain availble for the picking. Here’s a look at four talented players in the farm system who could be worth a waiver wire pick:

A former sixth round pick who has been passed around from the Red Sox to the Padres to the Cubs, it’s looking like Anthony Rizzo could be up for a promotion very shortly. In a 49 game stint with the Padres last season, Rizzo flopped, hitting just .141 with one home run. Now through 44 games, Rizzo is pounding the ball in Iowa with 16 home runs and a .355 average. Considered a long-term investment, the 22-year-old Rizzo could push Bryan LaHair to the outfield within the next month. Now that he has left San Diego and has a favorable ballpark, Rizzo is a fine speculation pick off the waiver wire.

Chances are you never heard of Danny Rosenbaum. A former 22nd round pick, the southpaw may be the most unknown dominating ace at any level of baseball. At one point he allowed just one earned run to score over a 45-inning stretch this season at Double-A. The 24-year-old hurler is a perfect 6-0 through nine starts this season. He is a control pitcher that has never had an ERA higher than 2.60 in his professional career. Rosenbaum’s never been known for his stuff, and the Nats rotation seems pretty full, but these numbers are too good to dismiss.

There was consideration for Julio Teheran to make the Braves rotation coming into the season, but instead he was beat out by fellow top prospect Randall Delgado. At Triple-A he has been something of an enigma. His control is a tad off and he is not racking up the K’s at the rate you would expect. Perhaps it has something to do with frustration still pitching in the minors, but a call to the Majors could happen at any moment especially with Mike Minor struggling with the Braves.

The Trevor Bauer watch continues in Arizona, as the Diamondbacks top prospect was recently promoted to Triple-A after dominating Double-A with 7 wins in 8 starts. In his first two starts since the promotion, Bauer has fanned more than a batter per inning while allowing just two runs in 13 innings. The Diamondbacks have a few top prospects in the farm system and have to be pleased with the play of Wade Miley this season. For now Patrick Corbin is holding down the fifth spot in the rotation with Daniel Hudson injured, but Bauer is likely on call.

The spring training feel good story is not feeling very good right now for the Rockies. Jamie Moyer is struggling at many things right now, as he has surrendered five or more runs in four of his last five starts. The problems center on the fact that Moyer is simply too hittable, as the opposition is hitting .328 against him, the worst mark for any starter in the National League. He is also walking batters twice as often as his 2010 season. Furthermore, the fact that he has only pitched seven innings once in nine starts this season puts a toll on the Rockies bullpen. With the team expected to compete this season, I have a hard time believing that there’s much patience in the front office.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies

A recent three-game hit streak lifted Todd Helton’s average to .231, but it’s still not enough to warrant an everyday gig for the Rockies legend. Amongst the RBI leaders early in the season, Helton had a dry spell before bouncing back against the Reds this past weekend. The plate discipline remains, but he clogs the bases without speed, and doesn’t have much power either. Helton’s career performance may one day lead to his induction in the Hall of Fame, but for now, it’s retirement has to be creeping on his mind.

Johnny Damon, OF, Indians

The good news was that Johnny Damon finally went yard with his first home run of the season for the Indians. The bad news is that he cannot escape reality and his batting average remains way too low at .158. That’s now 76 at bats and Damon has just three extra base hits. The 38-year-old has also shown some decent plate discipline, but he has yet to steal a base this season. Truth is that the Indians can contend without Damon on the roster. His leash is getting shorter by the day as he finds himself on the wrong side of the Mendoza line.

With a .342 average and five home runs, Derek Jeter has far exceeded expectations this season, as he is now surpassed 3,150 hits for his career. Now it may be time to sell high on the Yankees legend. Despite the early power showing, Jeter has just one extra base hit since May 6. He is starting to look like the singles machine that boasted just a .370 slugging percentage in 2010. Furthermore, the stolen bases are way down with just three swipes this season. Jeter has been great so far, but there are some serious questions about the sustainability of this hot start from the 37-year-old shortstop.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox

Though he seems to be getting bitter with age, claiming he doesn’t get respect in Boston, David Ortiz is as dangerous as ever with the stick in his hand. Ortiz is on pace for 40 home runs and 120 RBI while batting .305. Ever since everyone predicted his decline in 2009, Ortiz has bounced back and is once again one of the best designated hitters in baseball.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves

Sadly this is the swan song for Chipper Jones, who will one day find himself inducted in the Baseball Hall of Fame. A bruised left calf had forced Jones out of the lineup for the time being, but when he is healthy this season, he has blasted five home runs with 24 RBI and a .307 average. Jones is unlikely to have much more than 400 at bats this season, but if you are willing to change your roster on a daily basis, you can end up with an oldie, but goodie.

Raul Ibanez, OF, Yankees

The Phillies thought Raul Ibanez was done after a less than stellar 2011 season. The Yankees took an inexpensive gamble on the New York City native and so far the 39-year-old designated hitter has blasted nine home runs with 27 RBI. Yankees Stadium seems perfect for the left-hander, as he already has seven home runs at home. Additionally, the solid Yankees lineup has led to many run-producing opportunities and so far Ibanez has capitalized.

Derek Lowe, SP, Indians

It’s very rare for a pitcher to have success with more walks than strikeouts, but lo and behold, Derek Lowe is having a bounce back season with the Indians. Lowe had allowed just seven runs over his last six starts before getting pummeled this weekend. Even still, the ERA is a solid 3.25. Again, the strikeouts are a concern, and it makes you wonder how long this could last.

The total numbers are disappointing, 2 homers, 15 runs, 17 RBI, and a .267 AVG. On the other hand, he has hits in 16 of his last 18 games, has stolen six bases, and already has 5 doubles over the last 11 games. Keep in mind that Choo took a little while to bounce back after missing a large chunk of last season. However, at his best this is a rare 20-20 talent. This is a fine time to pick him up while his fantasy managers are keeping him glued to the bench.

In the past, the only thing keep Nelson Cruz down was his health. This season he has been an iron man and while his run production is solid with 24 runs and 23 RBI and his average is respectable at .274, so far the power has been limited with just four home runs. However, a closer look at the double-digit doubles tells me that maybe some of those shots simply have not left the yard, but come the summer in Texas, I think the ball will really start to fly off his bat. I still think 30 home runs is realistic, so go ahead and make the move for Cruz, though keep in mind that he is slowing down a bit on the base paths and he does have that injury-prone label.

Stolen bases have some serious value in fantasy leagues and for that reason alone you may be able to unload Drew Stubbs. Stubbs is a low average hitter with some pop and speed. He swiped 40 bases last season, which got a lot of attention, but also we saw a decline in home runs from 22 to 15. This season he only has three in comparison to his seven stolen bases. The positive is that he does score a lot of runs, which really is amazing when you consider that he strikes out a ton and rarely reaches base. Trade Stubbs while you can to someone desperate for some steals.

I have been known to lead my leagues on annual basis in saves despite not drafting closers until the middle or late rounds. I do this by picking up the pitchers who gain the promotion into the ninth inning because of either the struggles or health woes to the player ahead of them. Often it can result in excellence, such is the case with my drafting Aroldis Chapman in the final round of my draft. On the other hand, sometimes the closer I pick up implodes and doesn’t hold the gig for long. I fear that Cubs closer Rafael Dolis is of the latter. While I do like his youth at 24 years old and his live arm, I am very much in fear of his lack of strikeouts. This will not only hurt my fantasy team in that category, but also you typically like closers that can miss bats otherwise they can find themselves in trouble. With a 3.75 ERA and 2 blown saves already, I am selling on Dolis and keep in mind that Carlos Marmol will return from the DL and could end up earning the gig once again.

It usually turns out that the best arm in the bullpen ends up with the closer’s gig. It’s Darwinism and most recently played out in Cincinnati where Aroldis Chapman picked up what will likely be the first of many saves with a strong finish against the Yankees on Sunday. In Anaheim, we have seen Jordan Waldan lose the job after his early season struggles and southpaw Scott Downs then picked it up. I have no complaints with Downs, he was excellent last season with a 1.34 ERA and he has yet to surrender a single run this year in 12 innings. But in Firieri the Angels have a flame-thrower that has fanned 14 batters in 6.2 innings since he was acquired from the Padres. He’s worth picking up since he’ll give you some immediate value and that could soar down the line assuming he gets his hands on the ninth inning.

In his first taste of Big League action, Matt Adams did exactly what he’s done in the minors: rake. The 23-year-old top prospect in the Cardinals system may start the remainder of the season at first base with Lance Berkman possibly lost for the season due to a knee injury. The former 23rd round pick had never hit less than .300 in any of his seasons in the farm system. After blasting 32 home runs with a .300 last season at Double-A, he hammered nine with a .340 average before earning a promotion this season. This is a player worth using your waiver wire priority on, and feel free to up the ante if in an auction waiver wire.

If in need of a power bat, take a look at Dayan Viciedo. The White Sox top prospect got off to a tough start, but has really turned things around lately. On May 13, Viciedo’s batting average dipped below the Mendoza line down to .196. Since then he has enjoyed a seven game hit streak with four home runs and 10 RBI. He will kill you in leagues that consider on base percentage, as he has drawn just three walks all season. On the other hand, his strikeouts are in decline and the White sox even pushed him up to cleanup on Sunday with Paul Konerko out of the lineup. The White Sox know that they will need Viciedo to come up big this season if the team is going to compete, so look for the franchise to do everything to jumpstart their rising slugger.

This 22-year-old outfielder was a second round pick in 2008 and has taken some time to develop. Last season he had 36 steals, but very little power and horrible plate discipline while playing at Double-A. This year Avery started at Triple-A and played at an all-time high level. He drew a ton of walks, hit for power, and was a perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths. Avery has since been called up to the Big Leagues where he got his first Major League against the Yankees. A potential 5-tool talent with youth on his side, Avery has a shot at making an impact in the Big Leagues. He’ll hold down left-field until Nolan Reimold returns and at that point the Orioles will have to make a tough decision. Avery batted leadoff on Sunday for the Orioles and responded with two hits, a run scored, and his first Major League stolen base. He is now batting .312.

If in Texas everything is big, Rangers veteran hurler Scott Feldman fits right in at 6’7”. Despite the imposing figure, Feldman is actually something of a soft-tosser who gets by with finesse. In 2009, Feldman did more than just get by. He was sensational in the franchise’s transition into one of the league’s better pitching rotations. He finished with a 17-8 record and a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Since then, the journey has been a bit rockier for Feldman despite the team’s good fortune, reaching back-to-back World Series. He struggled in 2010 and then last season was only healthy enough to contribute 32 innings, though he was solid with a 3.94 ERA and stellar 1.09 WHIP.

Now 29 years old, Feldman has regained his health and has assumed a role as a spot-starter for the Rangers. He performed admirably on Monday, pitching 4.2 innings while surrendering no earned runs. His ERA is down to 3.00 through 15 innings of work.

Never much of a strikeout artist, Feldman does offer some solid control and keeps the ball in the park, which isn’t easy pitching in Arlington. If he can somehow stick in the rotation, Feldman has a shot at enjoying fantasy value with plenty of wins and a respectable ERA and WHIP. However, for now he is a fantasy afterthought with greater value in reality.

Stauffer struggled early in his professional career, however, in 2009 he broke out with a 1.85 ERA in 82.2 innings of work as a spot-starter and long-reliever. As a result of the fine performance, Stauffer enjoyed a promotion the following year to a full-time starter. Stauffer picked up 9 wins with a 3.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Of course PETCO Field played its role, as he was 6-5 at home with a 2.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

The 29-year-old right-hander showed some wear and tear in August, as his strikeouts declined and his home runs soared. After missing the first month and a half of the 2012 season due to a strained elbow, Stauffer made his season debut on Monday. Against the Nationals, the Padres hurler fanned five batters in five innings of work. He was a tad wild and bit too hittable as he came away with a no-decision.

Stauffer returns to PETCO this weekend for an Interleague match-up with the Angels. Fantasy managers should consider the veteran as a solid platoon option worth starting every time he takes the hill in San Diego even though a lack of run support will limit his ability to pick up wins.

Carlos Zambrano is making himself at home in Miami. He finally picked up his first win of the season last week with a three-hitter, which pushed his ERA down to 1.98. The ERA only declined further, to 1.88, after seven solid innings against the Mets on Sunday. Zambrano fanned seven batters while walking three in yet another no-decision.

With his control in check, Zambrano is one of the better hurlers in baseball right now. Aside from one outing in which he issued six walks, Zambrano has walked three batters or fewer in every start this season.

When playing for the Cubs, part of the job description was to handle Wrigley Field in every home start. Sometimes the wind would push the ball out of the stadium, adding yet another component to his performance. This season, Zambrano will call home to a pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Yet, so far most of Zambrano’s starts have come on the road, where he has offered a 1.55 ERA.

Though his volatile personality will always carry some risk, this is also the same pitcher that has won 16 or more games on three different occasions. Having shed a great deal of weight during the off-season and with his control and temper in check, Zambrano is a pitcher you can invest in.

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