Lol, I am also intrigued by maths problems especially those involving statistics/probabilities. So I also did the problems, and this is my answer

Probability of one team not getting through detour
= (33/38)^4 X 100%
= (33x33x33x33) / (38x38x38x38) X 100%
= 56.87%
Thus probability of one team getting thru detour
= 43.13%
Which is actually the same method as pineapple's one, just that i took it as 38 numbers and not 37 numbers.

Anyway, came here to post a question and unintentionally, I stumbled upon the probability thingy.

Didnt read thru the whole thread, so hope this have not been asked yet.

Does anyone else wonders how long the Yield will last? Wonder why they did not tell us the specific time you are held back. Well, its an HOURglass, but most hourglass, does not measure an hour if I am right. I reckoned that the delay will be 30mins max. An hour penalty just seems awfully too long.

I also had another food for thought. Imagine the Final 3, the first two teams use the Yield on the 3rd team, making it incredibly difficult for the 3rd team to win, unless there's a bunching-up point after the Yield. Well, if there are no bunching an if I was a member of that 3rd team, I think I will be very pissed for the million is so near yet so far

And yet another food for thought Can anyone imagine the amount of whining and crapping coming from a team thats been 'yielded'? I sure look forward to yet another interesting season, especially after a impressive first episode!

Does anyone else wonders how long the Yield will last? Wonder why they did not tell us the specific time you are held back. Well, its an HOURglass, but most hourglass, does not measure an hour if I am right. I reckoned that the delay will be 30mins max. An hour penalty just seems awfully too long.
!

I'm am almost certain I heard it said that the yield will cost a team 60 minutes.

I'm am almost certain I heard it said that the yield will cost a team 60 minutes.

I'm pretty sure that it will be 60 minutes since you can only use it once throughout the whole race. Can't wait till they use it on Ali. Anyways, that hourglass shown could have been shown in fast-forward. It looked pretty fast to me.

Yes. I have a master's degree in math and have taken three courses in statistics.

If the teams took 5 of their coins and spun the wheel one time and then walked away, they would indeed have only a 13% chance of winning.

But, they spun the wheel 4 times. And each of those times they had a 13% chance of winning. Loosely speaking, you can simply add 13 four times to find that you have about a 50% overall chance of winning at least once over the course of four spins. (The math gets a little more complicated if you have a lot of spins or a high chance of winning)

For another real-world example, consider the lottery. Let's say that each ticket has a 1 in 5 million chance of winning. One person with one ticket has a 1 in 5 million chance. If 1000 people bought tickets, there'd be about a 1 in 5000 chance that someone would win. If 1 million people bought tickets, there'd be about a 1 in 5 chance someone would win.

By your logic, even if 1 million people bought tickets, there should still be a 1 in 5 million chance of the lottery being won. With lotteries in existence for only 30 years or so, statistically speaking, no lottery should have been won by now.

People can sit in casinos for hours and never win. Never mind only having 4 tries.

True. But that's random chance for you. I also know people who walk into a casino and win on their very first try. What you have to look at is the average experience of a person when you take into account the experiences of a lot of people.

This week, three teams tried the Roulette table on TAR. Each one had approximately a 50-50 chance of winning the game (13% on each of four spins). The chances that all three would win the Roulette game were about 1 in 8. It was impressive that they all did win, but not particularly unusual. Next time, they may all lose.

Let's put it this way. You flipped a coin and got heads 49 out of 50 times. What would be your chances of flipping another heads?

50%, of course. But, you are looking at events in the past, rather than the future. If you are asking what the chances that the next 50 flips will be heads, that is astronomically small (1/50^2, actualy). If you define that the last 49 were heads and ask about the next 1 flip, that's 50%.

But the two situations cannot be compared to each other.

So, if you put 5 tokens on the 37, your odds are about 13%.

Correct.

Next time, they'll be 13% too.

Yes and no. The chances that you'll win on your second spin are also 13%, that's right. But, the chances that you'll win on EITHER your first or second spin is 13% + 87%*13%. In other words, the 87% of the time when you lose on your first try, you take another 13% try.

And, the question that's really being asked is what are the chances that you'll win on either your first try or your second try or your third try or your fourth try.

If you run the numbers out for this example, that's about 50%.

Never took stats... was a theatre major...

Everyone should take statistics. The whole world runs on statistics. If everyone understood them, no one would get ever get cheated at car dealerships, carnivals, or casinos again.

I also had another food for thought. Imagine the Final 3, the first two teams use the Yield on the 3rd team, making it incredibly difficult for the 3rd team to win, unless there's a bunching-up point after the Yield. Well, if there are no bunching an if I was a member of that 3rd team, I think I will be very pissed for the million is so near yet so far

Hmm, interesting. Perhaps there is no Yield when the race is down to the final 3 teams. We'll have to see then.

Yes and no. The chances that you'll win on your second spin are also 13%, that's right. But, the chances that you'll win on EITHER your first or second spin is 13% + 87%*13%. In other words, the 87% of the time when you lose on your first try, you take another 13% try.

I believe that's wrong. Your odds don't increase every time you play. But it is how people get suckered into playing the lottery. If one million people play, you have a one in a million chance to win. Even if you've played every week for 20 years, your odds don't increase... It's the same every time... if one million people play, you have a one in a million chance.

Neither of us are changing our minds, we're giving people a headache... I admire your conviction though.