Friday, 15 May 2009

A CRY FOR A BETTER TOMMOROW

“Countries with power, made by essential raw material, is in danger of being Economics falter as the only road, a world concern, linking them is left in a terrible state of been eroded.”

The World’s economics dilemma has causes country’s growth over the last decade and the current challenges as a result of economics falter or turndown. Economics falter can be briefly explain as a economics becoming weaker or less effective, also a less effective, also a less confident in production, trade and organize money in a particular country or region.

To understand the world’s economics dilemma, we need to consider that causes of the country’s growth over the last decade and the current challenges. The dominant cause of growth has been European or Capitalist convergence as a result of increase of stock market value, stalled of domestic reforms, isolated country’s from the outside world, falling of demand, enormous corruption, unpredictable economics crime, deterioration because of increased protectionism especially in agriculture and finance, poor banking system, malfunction public services … etc.

Unfortunately, it is easy to compile some major reasons why the world is likely to have lower growth in the near future 2020 than it has had for the last nine years.

1. Internationally, one of the greatest booms of all times is finally coming to an end. Demand is falling throughout the world, and soon the world, the developed countries like U.S.A, Russia, China … etc will also be hit. This factor alone has brought the Western World to stagnation.

2. Infrastructure, especially road, has become an extraordinary bottleneck, and the sad fact is that they are unable to carry out major infracture projects. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s came to power in 2000, Russia had 754, 000 kilometers of paved road. Incredibly, by 2006 this figure had increased by only 0.1 percent, and the little that is built costs at least three times as much as in the west.

3. The World’s main problem is its enormous corruption and implausible leader’s. According to Transparency international only Equatorial Guinea is richer and more corruption than major countries like Russia. Since the main culprit behind Russia’s aggravated corruption is Vladimir Putin’s, no improvement is likely as long as he persists.

4. Renationalization is continuing and leading to a decline in economic efficiency for example Russia, when Putin publicly attached Mechel, inventors presumed that he had decided to nationalize the company. Thus they rushed to dump their stock in Mechel, having seen what happened to Yukos, Russneft, United Heavy Machineries, and VSMR Avisma, to name a few. In a note to investors, UBS explained diplomatically that an old paradigm of higher political risk has returned to Russia, so it has reduced its price targets by an average of 20 percent, or a market value of $ 300 billion. Unpredictable economics crime is bad for growth.

5. Inflation is now rapidly high because of a poor exchange rate and monetary policies, though the current capital outflow may ease that problem.

6. Minimal reforms in law enforcement, education, and health care have been undertaken, and no new attempt is likely. The malfunctioning public services will become an even greater drag an economics growth.

7. Oil and commodity prices can only go down, and energy production is stagnant, which means that world most developed countries like Russia, U.S.A, China … etc external account are bound to deteriorate quickly.

8. Banking system in world is dominant state banks, it is inefficient and unreliable, and the national cost of a poor banking system rises over time.

9. The most successful transition countries have investment ratios exceeding 30 percent of GDP, as is also the case in East World. But west world, it is only 20 percent of GDP, and it is likely to fall in the current business environment. That means that bottlenecks will grow worse.

10. An immediate consequence of the world’s transformation into a rogue state is that membership in the World Trade Organisation is out of reach. World Bank and economics Development Ministry assessment have put the value of WTO membership at 0.5 to 1-percentage points of additional growth per year for the next ten years. Now a similar deterioration is likely because of increased protectionism, especially in agriculture and finance.

In short, the wold is set for a sudden and sharp fall in its economics growth.. It is difficult to assess the impact of each of these reasons or factors, but they are all potent and negative. A sudden, zero growth would not be surprising, and leaders in the world are not prepared to face reality. “Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any one thing and also any other.” Abraham Lincoln’s and also he quoted that the “ The people will save their government, if the government itself will allow them. The philosophy of the school room in one generation will be the philosophy of government in the next.”

In Nigeria, when Ibrahim Babangida took power in a coup in 1986, he inherited a desperate economics situation. Nigeria Source of credit of Finance ministry report, “On the Verge of external bankruptcy.” Oil, of which h the United State has been Nigeria’s largest customer, has accounted for 95 percent of the country’s export. But because of a decline in energy price, oil revenues had fallen from $ 25 billion in 1980 to about $ 6 billion in 1986, Nigeria’s external debt soared, from $ 452 million in 1970 and $ 18 billion in 1984 to $ 30 billion last year 2008. After four years in which the real gross domestic product declined or increased only marginally, the economy expanded by 4.1 percent in 1986 and is expected to grow about the same this year 2009.

In 2009, President Umaru Yar’ Adua came to power, in an effort to stanch the hemorrhaging of the economy, the Government adopted a stringent “Structural adjustment program.” The program had all the classic financial strictures of the International Monetary Fund but without the I.M.F’s conditions for repairing the economy-conditions that many Nigerian viewed as undermining the country’s sovereignty. Fixed exchange rates were abolished and the value of the currency, the Naira, was allowed to decline from parity with the dollar to the current rate of more than seven to dollar. The Government also slashed state agricultural exports and began a program to sell state enterprises. In January, the Government announced that it was amending the Nigerian enterprise promotion decree, which will reduce the number of business reserved for Nigerian Ownership and open up most other business to 100 percent foreign ownership. “The only Hope”.

The austerity program was “Clearly the only hope Nigeria had for a recovery”

1. All Vacancies for teachers in primary and secondary schools will be immediately filled.

2. Salaries and benefits for Government workers will be raised.

3. Import duties on commercial vehicles and spare parts will be eliminated for the rest of the years.

Several factor have been adduced to explain the full in economics growth and to summarize my writ-up, I conclude homily reason or factor for A Better Road in the nearest future 2020.

We can resolve this economics situation if YOU, help in being useful, truthful, honest, and willing to create unite in our society. You as a leader’s can resolved economics falter in the world because if the leader doesn’t modify its program, this could turn into another Venezuela. So I humbly pledge for change in our society, and take examples from good leaders. Eg, Boris Yeltsin’s who fought hard to introduce Market economy, Privatization, and International Integration in Russia, the President of United State, President Obarack Obama who colluded with the province to build easy and quick wealth on a low dollar, on the steady supply of cheap immigrants labour, and on the commodities boom.

The most spurious – namely the Oil Price Windfall, it has boosted several countries budget Surplus, current account balance, and currency reserves, it have damaged its policy badly, so we need the elite focussed on the distribution of Oil rents to improve it policy.

Communism should be built over capacity in production, infrastructure and human capital.

As a consequence, the world has seen no economic or social reforms worth mentioning for the past six years. The world economic situation looks ugly. For how long can the World remain in economic crisis?