I’m going from memory and may be wrong — I reiterate, my memory may be wrong — but I think the “Employment Sag” paper basically says “if someone in China can make widgets more cheaply than in the United States, there will be fewer widget-making jobs in the United States, and since U.S. widget-makers will have less money to spend on inputs, fewer jobs elsewhere too.” If I’m correct then the paper’s conclusions are at best incomplete, because they measure the destructive effects but ignore the resulting creative effects, which I won’t bother explaining here. By the way, industrial production and real manufacturing value added in the United States have increased a bunch since 2000.