Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Polling Quick Hits:
A wave of battleground polls from Public Policy Polling (four of the six states are in the middlemost column in the Electoral College Spectrum below; the most competitive states):

Arizona:
Of the six polls, only the Arizona survey showed Donald Trump in the lead. Yes, that four point edge was just outside the margin of error, but Trump's share in the poll was his highest in the state all year. However, it was not enough to push his average in the Grand Canyon state to his side of the partisan line. Arizona still projects as a Clinton state, but only by a narrow margin.

Iowa:
The polling drought in Iowa got a bit more relief, but, like last week, it was another poll from PPP that showed a slight Clinton advantage in the Hawkeye state. That drew the margin in Iowa a little closer and lodged the state firmly in the toss up area tipped toward Clinton. At this point, Iowa is still a want for Democrats, but is not a need. It remains superfluous to the chase for 270.

New Hampshire:
The picture in New Hampshire is similar to the one in Iowa: the margin inched toward being more competitive but without taking the Granite state out of the category it has been in for the last two weeks. But whereas Iowa was a toss up state for Clinton, New Hampshire is a heavier lean in the former secretary's direction.

Ohio:
In perennial battleground, Ohio, the PPP survey was right in line with where the extant polling has placed the race. Trump is flirting with 40 percent with Clinton a nearly three points clear of him. If that stands, Ohio will end up about where it was in 2012; approximately D+3. Ohio has not really moved then. However, Florida is running less competitive by comparison and Colorado more so as compared to 2012. The usual caveats apply though: More polling, more polling, more polling.

Pennsylvania:
So far, Pennsylvania is doing what Pennsylvania does: inching closer to the partisan line, cycle over cycle. The polling in the Keystone state has consistently shown Clinton ahead during all of 2016 and this latest PPP survey is no exception. The difference, at least as compared to past cycles, is that the Democrats' advantage is shrinking. Pennsylvania is a little more than a point more Republican in average than was the result in 2012, but is still hovering close to the boundary between the toss up and lean Clinton categories.

Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is the least competitive of the states polled in this series of surveys from PPP. It is also the least competitive of the six in the averages. While Pennsylvania is on the Watch List below on the cusp of pushing over into the Lean Clinton category, Wisconsin is one step up teetering on the brink of shifting back into the Strong Clinton category. This PPP poll only confirmed that.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Florida and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, Florida, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.