Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Will the oil crash spell ruin for stocks?

Talk
of deflation was overheard on the Street as a few analysts quoted by the news
wires mentioned the D-word.One reason
for the recent equity market weakness is the uncertainty among investors as to
whether lower oil prices are ultimately beneficial or detrimental for the
economy.In one camp are those who
maintain that lower oil prices will boost consumption; on the other side are
those who claim that plummeting energy prices can only lead to outright
deflation.Because neither side has a
decisive majority right now, equities are caught in the imbalance of opinion
which explains much of the recent volatility.

Adding to the uncertainty this week was the latest research note
from Goldman Sachs. Goldman’s chief
commodities analyst Jeffrey Currie wrote: “To keep
all capital sidelined and curtail investment in shale until the market has
re-balanced, we believe prices need to stay lower for longer.” Goldman made a high-profile call for
$40/barrel oil before the bottom has been seen in the crude market.

Both sides of the argument have merit, but
history shows that there comes a point at which falling oil prices eventually
exert a negative on equities. The two
examples that come to mind are the 2008 oil collapse, which increased downside
volatility for the credit crisis. Before
that, the 1998 plunge, which took crude prices below $10/barrel, aggravated the
Russian Ruble crisis and LTCM hedge fund collapse of that year and had a
decidedly negative spillover impact on stock prices for a while.

I
would also point out that in the Kress cycle forecast for 2015 the 6-year
“echo” suggests that the first few weeks of the New Year could be negative for
stocks. The Kress cycle echoes tend to
be fairly accurate in warning of broad periods of above-average volatility and
of the years which most closely align with 2015 in terms of the key Kress
cycles, January was shown to be a particularly vulnerable month for selling
pressure.

Meanwhile
commodities continue to take center stage as concerns mount that the weakness
in the energy market may spill over into other areas of the financial system
and the economy at large. On Wednesday,
Citigroup cut its iron ore and coal forecasts due to supply costs and signaled
that the oil price crash is feeding into other commodity markets. An even bigger sign that that weakness is
having an impact on global demand can be seen in the chart for copper
futures. Copper is a widely watched
gauge of global economic strength and the following graph suggests diminishing
demand.

One
of the major culprits for the weakness in oil and other commodities is the austerity
policies in Greece and other euro zone countries, which is coming home to roost
right now. While the U.S. Federal
Reserve responded to the unmitigated demand for money during the critical years
2009-2012, other countries chose to ignore the need for increased reserves and
liquidity and instead initiated an ill-timed tight money policy. Fast-forward to 2015 and while the U.S. finds
itself the envy of the world in terms of its domestic economy, other nations
are showing major signs of weakness with some verging on recession.

The
risk is that the commodities bear market continues exerting a negative
influence on economies in Europe and Asia with weakness eventually being
exported to the U.S. This is what
happened, on a temporary scale at least, in 1998. While we’re a long way from the danger zone,
there are preliminary signs that some of that weakness is already showing
up. The latest U.S. retail sales
numbers, for instance, showed a 0.9 percent drop for December in what should by
all accounts have been a positive month.
Electronic and clothing retailers were among the nine of the 13 leading
categories that showed a decline in sales as Americans chose not to spend the
extra money from gasoline price savings.

A
better reflection of what the average consumer is doing with his money is
visible in the New Economy Index (NEI).
NEI is a basket average of several stocks within the consumer retail and
business sectors. For years it has
provided an accurate real-time picture of the overall state of the U.S. retail
economy. Here’s what the NEI looks like
right now.

NEI
reached an all-time high last January and has spent the past year consolidating
its gains since 2009 by tracing out a lateral range. The NEI chart looks decent but could
certainly use some improvement. My
interpretation of the NEI pattern is that while consumers have been spending at
moderate levels, they haven’t completely “let loose” with those frenetic
spending binges that have always characterized strong economies of the
past.

Although
joblessness isn’t a major problem like it was in years past – the latest jobs
report showed a surge of 321,000 new jobs in November – consumers are
apparently concerned enough about keeping their jobs that they haven’t
accelerated their spending. It will be
interesting to see how they respond to the continued weakness in the
commodities market.