Today, Android is the underdog. It's new, it's not in widespread use, and it's being beaten by just about every other OS out there in terms of market share. The huge number of upcoming Android smartphone releases are evidence that this trend is changing, but it could still be a long time before Google's OS overtakes any of their big competitors. Or, if analysts from Gartner Inc. (via Computerworld)are correct, it could just take three years.

Gartner's just released a forecast that predicts the Android OS will be the #2 smartphone OS in the world by 2012. By that time, they estimate it will hold 14% of the market, as opposed to the 2% it holds right now. These gains by Android will come at the expense of Symbian, BlackBerry OS, and Windows Mobile. In fact, the report states that they expect Symbian (which currently accounts for about half of all smartphones) to drop to 39% by 2012.

Google's support, including the wide range of apps and cloud computing functions that they bring to the table, are given as the main reason for Android's anticipated success. Gartner expects total Android sales to top 76 million by 2012, which compares to an anticipated 71.5 million by Apple. While the Android OS is expected to beat out the iPhone, the fact that a single phone line can be responsible for that many sales is staggering.

I like how optimistic Gartner Inc. is about Android, but I do think we need to look at this with a little more caution. As promising as it is, Android is still very new. Only in the last few months have we started to see a substantial number of releases that use the OS. If, in six months, Android sales have shot through the roof and the parade of releases continues unabated, I'll feel much more secure in these predictions.

The Author

Robert EvansThe excitement about new smartphones, tablets and anything mobile drive
Robert to unearth the latest rumors and developments in this fast
moving space. He adopted 4G as soon as it become available and knows
where the mobile market is going.
Robert can be contacted directly at robert@i4u.com.