My Blog List

Friday, October 01, 2010

Bob '0 for 8' Shrum: Democrats Will Hold House and Senate

If you want to make some cash betting on your favorite candidates come election time, just follow the picks of Bob Shrum and go against whoever he likes. This may well be the final nail in the Democrat coffin.

Maybe I’m wrong.

In fact, maybe I’m really, really wrong, which is the reaction I hear when I dare even to broach this notion to commentators and political strategists in both parties. So let me state it plainly: I now think the Democrats will hold the Congress—yes, the House as well as the Senate—and turn back high profile Republican challengers in California and elsewhere.

The GOP strategy of “no” worked to slow the recovery, stoke fears about fictions like death panels in the health reform bill, and persuade voters to strike out in frustration against Democrats. The trend peaked in August, a month Democrats probably wish they could abolish given the dog days they suffered then, in 2009 as well as 2010.

But with the onset of autumn, there are signs that the Republican tide is receding. Karl Rove would understand – the same dynamic was the key to George W. Bush’s narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP base showed up to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it’s the Democratic base that’s stirring—and finally engaging—and the survey research is registering the shift. In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the Republican advantage in the ballot for Congress has declined from nine points to three. The explanation: African-Americans and Hispanics are re-entering the likely electorate.

Read the rest if you need to laugh a little more. It's quite possible Shrum may be more out of touch than even the current occupant of the White House.