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Probable Pitchers for May 18, 2013

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Like most of my readers, I devour every scrap of expert-league auction data I can get my hands on before the season starts. However, while useful, expert auctions are almost always start-over. While this gives a decent baseline for raw values, it isn’t very instructive as to what might happen when you start dealing with keepers, reserve lists, and other twists on the rules that cater more to carryover leagues.

Below is a brief recap of what I did in my two longstanding keeper auctions this past weekend. While nearly all of us are done drafting or auctioning, looking back at what we did right as well as what we did wrong can be very instructive.

In non-keeper leagues, owners get to draft/auction players every year. In keeper formats, there is always a delicate balance between rewarding owners for their scouting/drafting acumen versus having a decent pool of talent available in the draft.

While a few keeper leagues are dynasty and do allow you to keep a player forever, in roto-style leagues, there is often some kind of contract mechanism. Typically, you can add $5 to a player’s “salary” for each additional year you want to keep him. Not surprisingly, I often get questions along these lines

As the season winds down, Value Picks takes a fond look back at our picks from the season, looking at the hits and misses we collected in our efforts to find value among the overlooked players on your league’s waiver wire. As with assessing fantasy players, the notion of “value” can be slippery to pin down, especially when looking at players who are largely castoffs from other fantasy squads.

Value Picks gets the Disney treatment this week as the season winds down to the final week.

This column is coming a few days late since I spent a week with my brother’s family in Orlando—a trip that, of course, included a day at Disney World. Inspired by the visit, I’m giving this week a Disney theme (instead of the other video I introduced my nephews to). After all, sometimes Value Picks makes me feel like WALL-E, sifting through the discards of other teams to find something worth saving. With only a dozen games to play, we’re all hoping to run across the final piece of the puzzle to put us in the money for our fantasy league and make our dreams come true.

The Value Picks list continues to hit well, but Michael finds room for a newly healthy Luke Scott as well as a host of marginal talent in Playing Pepper.

Departures
A thin bench led Toronto to put David Cooper(Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 0%, CBS 3%) on the disabled list instead of waiting for his back problems to clear up. Depending on how Adam Lind plays (and feels), Cooper could return to the Jays when he’s eligible, but he’s still just an AL-only player if he does.

Jim Thome's return to the American League leads the new VPs this week as the All-Star break looms ahead.

We’re almost to the traditional midway point of the season, and Value Picks has already alerted you to early-season bargains like Adam LaRoche, Chris Davis, Will Middlebrooks, Matt Carpenter, and Todd Frazier. As the teams meet their own midway points and decide on their near- and long-term futures, we could see more high-profile call-ups like the departing Anthony Rizzo or trades like the one that brought Jim Thome back to the American League. Stay tuned to Value Picks for all the latest developments to keep your fantasy team ahead of the pack!

With solid replacement options dwindling, most of Michael's Value Picks stick around, but several are in their final weeks on the list.

June is a tough month for waiver-wire pickups; all the early bargains are long gone, starting positions have largely solidified, and most of this season’s call-ups haven’t yet begun to arrive. That means even more patience is required from fantasy players, a virtue that paid off for owners of one VP this week and a lesson to those who are ready to drop a talented hitter after a prolonged cold spell. Patience can make for some nail-biting weeks and short-term statistical swoons, but it’s always good to remember the baseball cliché that the season is a marathon, not a sprint.

Michael sweeps four VPs off the list while bringing in two Rockies and two hot-hitting first base call-ups.

Being a fantasy owner requires balancing three P’s: production, playing time, and the patience to see if a hitter will improve the former after an increase in the latter. This week, I’m losing my patience with two hitters while sticking by another one who’s about to get more playing time. Owners without my patience can find other options in another set of P’s—the Playing Pepper section—but you can find some fantasy value in any of this week’s players, which is our goal here at Value Picks.

Michael looks at the fate of several first-round draft picks at the corner infield spots in Colorado, Minnesota, and San Diego, and peeks at some Spring Training stats in Playing Pepper.

If you need further confirmation of how difficult baseball is, compare its amateur draft to those of football or basketball, where first-round picks generally go onto success and top-pick busts like Sam Bowie or Ricky Williams make headlines. Baseball’s draft history, on the other hand, is littered with first-round failures and late-round successes. Some first-round picks eventually help their clubs but not always at the position where they were drafted. This week’s Value Picks looks at several Spring Training storylines surrounding former first-round draft picks and whether there’s any fantasy value to be found there.

A look at some propsects who could be traded to bolster their teams' pennant hopes.

Instead of looking at performances, I spent the weekend at games and thinking about players I saw in terms of trade value, while thinking in a similar vein about prospects currently in organizations that are gunning for a post-season spot. Here are 10 players for winning teams who could be attractive trade bait over the next three weeks.