More deaths, fewer births, more people moving out and fewer arriving in Connecticut has led to a population drop for the third year in a row, U.S. Census Bureau estimates show.

More people leaving Connecticut than arriving from elsewhere in the U.S. is the biggest reason for the decline. From July 2015 to July 2016, the net domestic out-migration was 29,880 — more than twice as many as five years earlier.

The Census Bureau now estimates that Connecticut has 3.6 million people and is one of eight states that lost population in 2016. With a loss of 8,278 people, or 0.2 percent, Connecticut's population decline increased by 1,000 over 2014-15.

"There are consequences to this, both political and economic," said Orlando Rodriguez, a demographer in Rodriguez Data Solutions in Willington. "We're a consumer-driven society, we need people to spend. If people aren't spending, your economy isn't growing. If people aren't spending, you're not collecting taxes."

Sixteen states and the District of Columbia grew faster than the national average of 0.7 percent — all except Delaware are in the South or West. The national growth rate was the slowest in 79 years, as immigration fell slightly, fewer babies were born and the number of deaths inched up.

New York State had a tiny population loss, but Massachusetts gained more than 27,500 residents, for a growth rate of 0.4 percent.

More Leaving

Manisha Srivastava, who moved to Connecticut in her mid-20s, from New Jersey, said that while a declining population generally has tax revenue implications, how distressing this news is "depends on who we are losing."

"I don't know I can fault a retiree for wanting to move to warmer weather," she said. "As long as we're drawing working-age people."

Connecticut has held its own in attracting working people, according to the Census Bureau. From 2001 to 2014, Connecticut attracted more 26- to 39-year-olds from other states than moved away, and, when immigrants and arrivals from Puerto Rico are included, it has also gained among adults 23 to 25 and those in their 40s. However, domestic migration in the 26-29 group has been negative since 2010.

Srivastava, an economist at the Office of Policy and Management, wrote about state migration trends from 2001 to 2014 in this month's Connecticut Economic Digest.

"Losing people from the Northeast to the South and West is a decadeslong trend," she said.

But, as she noted in the published analysis: "Regardless of these long-term trends, however, it should be noted more recently Connecticut has experienced an increased rate of domestic and total out-migration even when compared to New England."

Analysts at the real estate website Trulia found that Greater Hartford's out-migration patterns do not suggest that working-age adults are leaving because the region is too expensive.

Moreover, nine of the 10 most common destinations for those moving out of Greater Hartford are less affordable than Hartford.

Trulia measures affordability by measuring typical wages paid against the cost of buying or renting real estate, including property tax costs. By that measure, Hartford is slightly more affordable than average.

The top destinations for those leaving metro Hartford are, in order: New Haven, Worcester, Fairfield County, Boston, and metro New York, including New Jersey and Westchester County.

In the top 10 places former Hartford area residents move to, the only place that's more affordable is Atlanta. However, Orlando, Fla., could be a bargain for a retiree, whose income is high from a lifetime of working in Connecticut, but who would get lower taxes and a cheaper house there.

Metro Hartford attracts substantially more 18- to 24-year-olds than it sends to other regions. But once people have their degrees, slightly more leave the region than move to it for work.

However, the Hartford region's retention of people with graduate degrees is better than the other 99 large metros.

Cheryl Young, a senior economist at Trulia, said it appears that people with bachelor's degrees are drawn to dynamic economies like New York, Boston and Washington, D.C., where there are "a nice variety of jobs." She added, "There's definitely the cultural pull factor for people that are young."

"Just because people are moving to these places, it doesn't mean they're fleeing something terrible," she said. "There are these places with large gravitational pull. There are very few New Yorks, very few Bostons, very few D.Cs. But there are a lot of Hartfords."

Stagnant Economy

MetroHartford Alliance CEO Oz Griebel said the overall decline in population makes Connecticut less attractive to companies that are choosing where to expand. If they open an office in Florida, they know there will be lots of people in the job pool to draw on. (Florida is one of the five fastest-growing states).

However, Griebel said, companies are less concerned about the big picture population trends and more about whether they feel there's a shortage of the specific kind of engineers or computer professionals they need. He said the large number of temporary workers in information technology from outside the country is evidence that companies like Aetna, Cigna and Travelers couldn't find the talent they needed here.

Still, the census data, while not a new development, isn't good news. "Many of us in the state, we're all concerned about the impact of a stagnant economy," he said.

The Trulia analysis, which is based on individual data available from 2010 to 2014, does not suggest that Connecticut's top earners are leaving for better opportunities elsewhere. People who earn more than $100,000 are underrepresented among those moving away.

In fact, Hartford strongly outperforms the other 99 large metros in how many workers in the $100,000 to $150,000 income band it retains.

Eversource, which provides electricity to 149 cities and towns in Connecticut, has not seen a decline in business with the drop in population in the past three years. Spokesman Mitch Gross said the company is getting more requests for service, and more new construction requests.

He said that comparing all customers, business and residential, the company had 1.22 million customers in Connecticut in 2015, and through Nov. 30, it has 1.23 million. .

The number of business customers is up about 350, so most of the growth is residential.

How is that possible in a state where there are fewer people? Fewer people per household. If couples have no children at home, or if more people live alone, there are more households with fewer people.

"The population may be shrinking," Gross said, but "as our numbers show, we're busy."

CAPTION

Peter Weigle, owner of J.P. Weigle Cycles in Lyme, is one of the most respected bicycle-frame builders in the United States and, arguably, the world. This weekend Weigle is participating in the North American Handmade Bicycle Show at the Connecticut Convention Center where he has a display booth. The show is the largest and most widely accessible destination for frame builders to share their passion with cycling enthusiasts. It continues through the weekend until 5pm Sunday.

Peter Weigle, owner of J.P. Weigle Cycles in Lyme, is one of the most respected bicycle-frame builders in the United States and, arguably, the world. This weekend Weigle is participating in the North American Handmade Bicycle Show at the Connecticut Convention Center where he has a display booth. The show is the largest and most widely accessible destination for frame builders to share their passion with cycling enthusiasts. It continues through the weekend until 5pm Sunday.

CAPTION

Peter Weigle, owner of J.P. Weigle Cycles in Lyme, is one of the most respected bicycle-frame builders in the United States and, arguably, the world. This weekend Weigle is participating in the North American Handmade Bicycle Show at the Connecticut Convention Center where he has a display booth. The show is the largest and most widely accessible destination for frame builders to share their passion with cycling enthusiasts. It continues through the weekend until 5pm Sunday.

Peter Weigle, owner of J.P. Weigle Cycles in Lyme, is one of the most respected bicycle-frame builders in the United States and, arguably, the world. This weekend Weigle is participating in the North American Handmade Bicycle Show at the Connecticut Convention Center where he has a display booth. The show is the largest and most widely accessible destination for frame builders to share their passion with cycling enthusiasts. It continues through the weekend until 5pm Sunday.

CAPTION

Senate President Martin Looney (D) and House Minority Speaker Themis Klarides react to Ct. Gov. Dannel Malloy's address to the legislature on opening day of the 2018 session.

Senate President Martin Looney (D) and House Minority Speaker Themis Klarides react to Ct. Gov. Dannel Malloy's address to the legislature on opening day of the 2018 session.

CAPTION

For the fourth year in a row, the First Congregational Church of Cheshire offered morning commuters "Ashes On The Way", the church's Ash Wednesday celebration in which motorists receive ashes and a blessing in a drive-through setting. About 200 motorists pulled up to the church to receive ashes.

For the fourth year in a row, the First Congregational Church of Cheshire offered morning commuters "Ashes On The Way", the church's Ash Wednesday celebration in which motorists receive ashes and a blessing in a drive-through setting. About 200 motorists pulled up to the church to receive ashes.

CAPTION

The Coast Guard 65 foot small harbor tugs Hawser, out of Bayonne, NJ. and Bollard, out of New Haven, CT., got help from the Coast Guard Cutter Pendant, out of Boston, MA. as they worked the ice jams on the Connecticut River north of the Swing Bridge in East Haddam Tuesday afternoon as warm temperatures and rain help break the ice jams.

The Coast Guard 65 foot small harbor tugs Hawser, out of Bayonne, NJ. and Bollard, out of New Haven, CT., got help from the Coast Guard Cutter Pendant, out of Boston, MA. as they worked the ice jams on the Connecticut River north of the Swing Bridge in East Haddam Tuesday afternoon as warm temperatures and rain help break the ice jams.

CAPTION

SMSGT Jeff Pooler was greeted by his wife Jenny, their twin boys Andrew and Jacob, 14, and members of Troop 274 in Avon after returning from a six month deployment to Kuwait with the Connecticut Air National Guard Monday evening at Bradley International Airport. Pooler, former Scoutmaster with the troop, was greeted with a color guard and American Flags waving with his former scouts. The whole event was thought up by Pooler's wife, assistant scoutmaster Bill Eschewrt and his son Jack, an Eagle Scout wth Avon Troop 274.

SMSGT Jeff Pooler was greeted by his wife Jenny, their twin boys Andrew and Jacob, 14, and members of Troop 274 in Avon after returning from a six month deployment to Kuwait with the Connecticut Air National Guard Monday evening at Bradley International Airport. Pooler, former Scoutmaster with the troop, was greeted with a color guard and American Flags waving with his former scouts. The whole event was thought up by Pooler's wife, assistant scoutmaster Bill Eschewrt and his son Jack, an Eagle Scout wth Avon Troop 274.