The Latest

Monday, November 17, 2014

Approximately halfway between September premiere week and January premiere week, usually very light time of year for new series premieres, NBC is trotting out one of its biggest new drama hopes of the season. State of Affairs is another drama in the political thriller space that has seen plenty of recent successes like Scandal, The Blacklist and Homeland. This particular show is most notable as a vehicle for the highly polarizing Katherine Heigl, returning to TV after once finding fame on Grey's Anatomy. What is the State of Affairs in the post-Voice timeslot? That's The Question for Monday, November 17, 2014.

Unlike NBC's other post-Voice drama premieres, State of Affairs premieres very late in The Voice's season. So not only does it have a limited time with that lead-in, but it also doesn't start out with the benefit of the much stronger blind auditions. Tonight, The Voice is likely to be in the low 3's (it got just a 3.2 last week), which may set up SoA for a lower debut than the other dramas. Though I'm not seeing Blacklist potential for this show, I think the rather exhaustive promotion gets the premiere very close to recent The Blacklist deliveries (which have gotten 2.4-2.5ish).

Over/Under: 2.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

87 comments:

I am not high on this show but like you I believe it is possible that it starts okay tonight. Even Believe pulled a 2.7, though that was still out of a much higher rated voice. I think it will be close and I expect a 2.4 but I am going Over.

It's unlikely NBC is having hit on their hands here, indeed. Still, if State of Affairs premieres bellow 2.5, then already 2nd episode would probably drop bellow 2.0, and here I can't see rejection of Marry Me proportions. I expect premiere gets 2.6 or 2.7.

I hate the fact that NBC is pushing Katherine Heigl so hard (even though I know she's the lead) over Alfre Woodard. And even with the surprising promotional push, the scheduling still makes me think NBC isn't that high on the show; if they were we would have seen The Voice/State of Affairs/Chicago Fire on Tuesdays instead of the comedies.

And maybe if this didn't feel like a different spin on Madam Secretary (powerful woman in charge of high-level bureaucracy that influences the President, and who happens to have emotional connection with him/her) I could be optimistic. But it is, so I'm not.

Given that Nashville's producers were really against a 13 episode order for another season, ABC could look at Revenge for doing filling that midseason role instead and just cancel Nashville. That gives them 5 vacant hours by eliminating both from the Fall schedule (Tuesday x2, Wednesday, Sunday x2). And if one of the midseason shows is renewable, then it's 4 hours; that would be a real plus so they could fire up the TGIT promotion machine again and hope that How to Get Away with Murder can transcend the limited-series curse.

I don't trash them. I make realistic points about them. TBL's strength suggests that it won't be capable of standing up to Scandal (although arguably, one could say that there aren't many dramas that could). History also suggests that the Super Bowl won't help it in any way since other shows have aired with two part episodes that have returned with ratings in the line of what they were getting before the heightened exposure.

Is also unlikely for State of Affairs to premiere to high 2's and sustaining mid 2's when The Voice is hovering in the low and mid 3's.

NBC is not a failure. However, their crop of new shows certainly is a failure. They're currently standing at 0-for-5 (including About a Boy 0-for-6).

NBC doesn't have best season in years. That they had year ago, clearly. This season NBC is down in all metrics. For example, in primetime C3 ratings excluding sports, NBC is down 14% y2y, only Fox (down 23%) is doing worse y2y. Source:http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/237770/abc-tops-all-nets-in-non-sports-c3-ratings.htmlFor ABC, this result is virtually identical to its C3 18-49 ratings of a year ago -- a 2.14 -- at this point in the season.

NBC is next at a 1.92 rating, down 14% from a year ago when it had a leading 2.23 rating in non-sports prime-time programming.

CBS is in third place with a 1.88 rating, off 10% from a year ago when it was at a 2.08. Fox is in fourth place with a 1.54, sharply down 23% from its 1.99 rating. The CW is in fifth place at a 0.56, slipping 5% from its 0.59 rating of a year ago.

The subtext behind the many bad critics reviews this premiere has received was a disastrous show session at the summer press tour, adding to the bias against Heigl. However, I found the pilot episode to definitely be above-average in quality. The casual TV viewer might check this one out.

I expect 2 Broke Girls to air 24 episodes as usual. But it still fits anyway. I thought it would have been better to have a January premiere instead of a late December premiere that would force a break so soon, but maybe it's the type of show in which it doesn't really matter anyway. And it's not important. This is the move that makes sense and that we all called long ago. I am happy that Mom gets to keep the big bang lead in a little while longer.

Last year, the season finished Wednesday, the 21/05/2014 (though I am not sure why Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are forced to have one more regular season day than Thursday, Friday and Sunday, seems odd to me).

Assuming a similar pattern, the season would finish the 20/05/2015 if it's a Wednesday again or 21/05/2015 if it is a Thursday.

Yes, I remember Idol season finals on Tue/Wed, because Thursday wasn't regular season any more. It is probably connected with May sweeps somehow.

Then even better, it's possible to fit 24 episodes of 2 Broke Girls and 22 of Mike and Molly:2BG / M&M air 8th i 15th December, plus 18 of first 19 weeks in 2015 (NCAA basketball on 4/6) .With 2 Broke Girls finale on 5/11/2015, and 1-hour finale of Mike and Molly on 5/18/2015.

BTW, now I agree with you that Scorpion won't go to Thursday next year. I've forgotten how strong TGIT is. Plus, Scorpion's lead-in would be low priority comedy (new or veteran, doesn't matter). Double trouble, no go.

Now I see two possible scenarios for the next fall:A. If CBS would develop new (relatively) young skewing drama for fall:Mon: comedies / new drama / ScorpionNCIS: LA moved to problematic Thursday 10 PM.

In both scenarios Elementary goes to Sunday 10 PM. It's literally too weak to take Friday 9 PM, it would disrupt the night. Friday 9 PM will be H50, or PoI (with H50 cancelled), it depends on how many slots Mon-Thu CBS would need for new fall dramas.

By my accounts, I think they will need to repeat 2 Broke Girls once and then they can go originals for the entire season, unless I am making a mistake somehow.2 Broke Girls has aired 4 times already and will presumably air next week as well (paired with tbbt rerun maybe?). The week after they are both off for the mike and molly rerun marathon and then we have two weeks of 2BG+MM. So at year's end, we will have 2 Broke Girls with 7 episodes aired and MM with 2 episodes aired, which means 2 Broke Girls will have 17 episodes to air and Mike and Molly 20 episodes to air.

Since there are 19 available weeks, I assume a two hour season finale for MM, which would make it air everything in season possible. That leaves 2 Broke Girls with 18 weeks to air 17 episodes, so one repeat only.

I agree with you that Elementary can only go to Sundays at 10pm (the better question about it is probably whether or not CBS will tolerate it on Thursday for the entire year. Only 3 episodes have aired so far!) and that Fridays at 9 will be POI or H50.

But as for the rest, I am still not sure. I think a new drama launches out of CM and a new one out of New Orleans, those are more or less easy bets. Then, unless The Odd Couple is renewed which for now I am not counting now, a new comedy will also launch out of TBBT. The third new hour can then either be launched Mondays at 8, Mondays at 9, Thursdays at 9 or Thursdays at 10.

Right now, I am sure which option I prefer. I like some things about 2, but I agree with you that launching a new drama against Scandal (and the blacklist is not the best idea). In theory, Thursdays are becoming the perfect landscape for comedy counterprogramming since both NBC and ABC seem to be going heavy on the drama front. But it isn't working so well this year and I don't particularly like options 1, 3 and 4 that force the female comedies to face Scandal. I like the boldness of 5 I have to admit. GA is still very strong but it is weaker than the voice so I think the comedies would do okay there and tbbt could then be used to boost a new comedy and a new drama, while using Scorpion to prop up a new drama on Mondays. But it is very unlikely.

They had stuff to plug the holes. Undercover Boss and The Mentalist most notably. It was their choice not to use them for that purpose. There is still Cyber, but so far I have found some of their decisions odd.

1, 2 and 5 are assuming there will be only 2 comedy blocks - impossible to happen. So I refuse to consider those.Your 3 is new drama at Thursday - very, very unlikely. It leaves only your option 4 only as viable. Well, to some extent.Still, I would put new drama at 9 PM and Scorpion at 10 PM. For first 5 weeks at least, to help new drama with TBBT / TBBT repeat. If new drama flops, Scorpion can always slide back to 9 PM after Thursday football is over.However, they won' have 3 new comedies next fall, Mike & Molly will be Mon 8:30 PM, because they don't want unknown value leading into 9-11 Pm dramas.In addition, it's unlikely they would have 3 new dramas in fall with at least 2 rookie dramas renewed from this season. Highly unlikely if they would renew 3rd drama (Madam Secreatry or Cyber) .

I don't like the idea of Scorpion to 10pm. 10pm is simply too lower rated these days to launch actual hits unless they are 1) rare shows with a tremendous potential which are VERY rare AND 2) extremely well supported by lead-ins (see scandal, blacklist, murder and that's basically it). POI was undoubtedly harmed in its transition to 10pm despite what should have been a relatively neutral move (lead-in was roughly lower rated but more compatible in theory, competition was easier). So I would avoid sliding down Scorpion so soon, that's why I like the idea of it going to 8pm. It could come back for November sweeps, avoid the highest rated portion of the voice and then run with very few repeats until May. TBBT could be used to launch a new drama at 9. But yes I know you don't believe in the comedy reduction.

As for Mike and Molly taking fall slot, I don't hate it, but you would have to go back more than 5 years to find a CBS comedy development season that hasn't produced a total dud in need of replacement very soon (The McCarthys (and the Millers I suppose), We Are Men, Partners, How to Be a Gentleman, and I am too lazy to continue looking). So I am not sure if going without a backup would be wise.

As for your point about 3 new dramas after successful rookie season with dramas, I would normally agree but that had long years of development bust (last year, the year before since Elementary was basically a bust, even the year before since POI is not exactly a very good player for them) so they need to make up for it. I think it comes down to development.

There is also a problem that both our schedules have and which I dislike which is to move POI or LA to another weeknight. I don't think any show is strong enough to endure that move right now. They should be left where they are (unlikely on POI's case) or moved to weekend. However, in some schedules, it's very hard to find something for the Thursdays at 10pm occupant.

I commented new drama at Monday because you have it there in some of your options.But I don't really want CBS premiering new drama on Monday next fall, as their Monday lineup should do OK now that they yanked The Millers from there. However, I would like new Monday drama in one (and only one) case: if it skews considerably younger than usual CBS product. I would want such drama launched out of Monday TBBT stint, and not out of some ancient skewing cop procedural elsewhere. And if that condition (relatively young skewing) is satisfied, then I would want it airs at 9 PM. First, to be closer to TBBT- Second. because of disaster results they recently suffered with new dramas at Mon 10 PM (Intelligence / Hostages)

If TGIT remains so strong in following seasons, any moving of drama to Thursday may be considered practically same as moving it to Friday.

Yes, I agree on both accounts with you (for a change). But what do you want CBS to do with Thursdays at 10? POI? It is doing very low 1s on Tuesday against weaker competition than Thursday and out of higher rated and more compatible drama. What would it do on Thursdays? But I don't have much better option that doesn't involve a reduction in sitcom hours.

We agree it would be suicidal to try new drama at Thursday, as it would be *both* against Murder and out of Mom (or new comedy, or the Odd Couple). Then Thu 10 PM must be low-priority already-syndicated veteran drama, right?

Which one? It depends on how many slots CBS will need Monday to Wednesday between new dramas and CSI: Cyber.

I alluded to it in another comment, but Sweeps periods run Thursday-Wednesday. Technically a full TV season runs September to September, and is bookmarked by Premiere Week to start and the Emmys to end. Of course, in years when NBC carries the awards show it'll be off due to Sunday Night Football.

I see. But the so called regular season is commonly assumed to end the last day of May Sweeps and networks tend to program accordingly, no? I know there are exceptions every now and then (Hannibal last year) but that's the rule most cases.

That's correct. They decide to get out of the way of the Memorial Day holiday and not fight against the tide of lower HUT levels over the summer.

However, there's still a Sweeps period over the summer in July. That's probably been part of the rationale of CBS in waiting to debut shows like Big Brother, Under the Dome, Extant, etc. that month. I'm actually surprised that ABC hasn't tried bumping the NBA Finals back a few weeks for that reason.

That may be part of CBS's reason but I suspect they are also more interesting in using the summer schedule to promote the fall lineup which is why they try to run it up until fall season (or even premiere week like this year with Dome and Big Brother).

She has a reputation as being difficult talent to work with and for bad-mouthing her projects (see: saying the writing on Grey's Anatomy sucked so she withdrew her name from Emmy consideration and for calling her breakout movie Knocked Up "sexist"). In the past that kind of industry stuff wouldn't matter as much, but thanks to the Internet it's permeated somewhat into the larger culture. Combine that with the poor movie choices she's made recently (Life as We Know It, One For the Money, New Year's Eve) and she comes across as ungrateful.

I just don't think it's wise to move your top drama in mid-season to a slot against the top network drama and then give it Kimmy Schmidt as a lead-in. I don't think you can breathe life into a night with 1.7s.

( Meanwhile, you've strengthened Castle and let NCIS: LA regain its audience in the three months they're facing State of Affairs. )

NBC doesn't have many dramas for midseason. This is not the first time I hear that, and I don't know where that myth comes from. But there+s only 2 + 1 minu-series.13 episodes of limited Aquarius. It would be waste to use The Voice for it, but suppose they can "un-limit" it.e f13 episodes of Odyssey.8 episodes of mini-series The Slap. Very likely headed to Sunday.

I'm not sure how much Superbowl might help The Blacklist. Everyone is expecting a Grey's Anatomy bump, but people often forget that Grey's Anatomy has been building up momentum towards the Superbowl, increasing the ratings from the season premiere, and had the unusual advantage of airing at 10/9 on Sundays (which is about the same timeslot as the post-Superbowl timeslot, which airs around 10:20/9:20 on a Sunday). The Blacklist is now at about the low end of its ratings and is moving to a new slot where it has to grow out of. I may still eat my words, but it will take some effort to pull off this move.

What episodes of Hannibal? Repeats?Didn't Bryan Fuller said Season 3 will be ready to air in May? April at best. That's in line with my opinion NBC renewed very low rated Hannibal for summer.

But yes, probably they won't bother to insert another drama until Hannibal is ready. But that's exactly what I'm saying: They won't do it, because, despite popular belief, NBC hasn't ton of dramas ready for midseason. Hannibal just started shooting. Heroes: Reborn didn't ever cast roles, it's for summer at earliest. Emerald City is pre-cancelled. Note tey need many drama hours for Sunday, because The Apprentice is scheduled as Monday filler,

Rather, I'd expect multiple hours of Dateline per week and at least 1 hour of The Voice to help in populating holes on Friday/Sunday. And not plethora of phantom new dramas. And they're in such situation because Constantine flopped, Laura is not doing good, and for State of Affairs jury is still out if it will be a flop or just underwhelming.

I think it will help The Blacklist short term, but not long term.Like, first 2 or 3 episodes after Superbowl to rate rather high, thus making The Blacklist averaging (very frontloaded) 2.5 for Thursday episodes.While without Superbowl help I'd expect something like 2.0 average for that Thursday stint.However, late in this season ratings to settle at similar to where it would without Superbowl episode, so impact on following seasons to be minimal, if any.

I know he allegedly said so on twitter but I am still not sure if that really has to be the case. Maybe he took the question more as a "when will hannibal air?" instead of "when it will be ready?". I have no idea, this is me speculating. I also find it odd because shows usually shoot 2 months in advance or so (sometimes less), so I dunno why Hannibal would need such a big production delay. Even they want three months, which is insane, they could shoot December/January/February and bring it back at the same time as last year. It's still mid November after all.

But I agree for the most of your point that what looked like a crazy amount of midseason replacements for NBC are quickly turning into little. To your causes I would also add the comedy collapse on Tuesday which will require also replacement. Had it worked, I am convinced NBC would have left it alone and filled another hour with comedy elsewhere on the schedule.

I think Hannibal will return at 0.7 to 0.8 ratings. And I just think it would look better for the show (and for NBC) if it airs in summer with similar rated Night Shift, Undateable, and Welcome to Sweden. Putting Hannibal on in February, in my opinion, is practically waving a white flag.

You're right about comedies - there's no way they would keep two blocks till season end. Marry Me is capped at 18, and I doubt About a Boy can air more than 11 of 22 before sent to Saturday or summer.As you 're adamant they didn't ordered 2nd cycle of The Biggest Loser, I think that's where Hollywood Game Night cames into play. I know they ordered 10 more episodes, and I don't think it's slotted anywhere yet. So I think their plan is to merge two comedy blocks into one block (keep two sitcoms on air until May, burn off / cancel others) and putting in HGN. It also repeats well, if it's needed for more than 10 weeks

Maybe it's possible what you are saying about Game Night but I don't see where it would fit on the schedule other than Sundays. Certainly not as lead-in for the blacklist as people have suggested, I find that idea really horrible. But most importantly, I've always assumed that Game Night would bridge the voice seasons on Tuesday. What do you expect to see there if they use Game Night in the spring?

As for Hannibal, I understand your point, and it's certainly a reason not to air it in the season, but I still think it beats the alternative of having to air something new there. The other option is MOL but it would fit horribly behind Grimm in there. I wouldn't terribly mind a Grimm | Dateline | MOL though, but it won't happen.

I was definitely shocked when all 3 dropped in ratings week to week AFTER the Superbowl episode, especially Glee, because it was in Season 2 and was having better ratings than Season 1. I really thought Glee would be lifted.