9.7.09

With just half an hour left until the final two episodes begin, I thought this would be a good opportunity to mention my final predictions, if only so my humiliation can be set in concrete for all the virtual world to see.

I'm going to be working under the assumption that the show isn't a complete cheat, and that Wakefield will definitely be working with someone else, giving us a surprise reveal in the last episode. If there isn't, then the show isn't a mystery, and its failure will be complete. If there is, then the show still won't be a good mystery, but at least there will be some kind of a surprise at some point.

Let's break it down into levels of likeliness among the surviving characters-

Tier 1 (It's probably one of them)Henry and Jimmy: Either one of them is the right age to be Wakefield's secret son, and each has plenty of problems with people who've been killed. Jimmy seems too good to be true, but the suspicion thrown on him at the end of hour 11 all but eliminates him as a suspect. Henry's much more likely in this group - from episode 2 the show's been going out of its way to point out that Henry's got a nasty temper and is comfortable around knives - kind of weak as clues go, but it's better than nothing. Also, he's the only one other than Jimmy who's survived a run-in with Wakefield without any good explanation for it (the cuts on his arms after they found JD point to this).

Of the two of them, I'd be happy if it was Jimmy (since I'd have been right all along!), but it's more likely to be Henry.

Tier 2 (Less likely)Black Frat and Douchey Frat: By virtue of never having been given a backstory, these two remain ciphers, so we can't really judge what motive they might have for teaming up with Wakefield. Also, there's the fact that each of them has a key exonerating fact going for them - Douchey Frat wouldn't have saved Cal's life if he was working with Wakefield, and Black Frat can't be Wakefield's son by virtue of the fact that he's the Black Frat.

Tier 3 (Now you're stretching it)Trish and Shae: These two are all but exonerated, except for a few niggling details. Trish is the right age to be Wakefield's secret child, and Shae had a known motive to kill at least two of the people on the island (which puts her at one motive over the next-angriest person, Henry, who really wanted to kill Hunter). Still, revealing that either of them was the killer at this point would require a huge amount of backfill, so I'm guessing they won't be responsible.

Tier 4 (No way in hell)Abby and Madison: Yeah, there's no way in hell. One's a little girl and the other one has been the focus of the murders. They absolutely can't be responsible without this show getting crazy terrible. I know they've been stressing that she's an 'evil' little girl from minute one, but it's just not believable.

So, if I had to pick, I'd guess Henry was the secret child, and most likely the extra killer as well, since that would seem to give the show the most possible dramatic punch at the ending.

In just two and a half hours we'll all get to see just how wrong I was!

Oh, and for the record, here are the loose ends that need to be tied up: Identity of secret child, Marty's money, what Richard was doing the morning of his murder.