by Nicole Auerbach, USA TODAY Sports

by Nicole Auerbach, USA TODAY Sports

Productivity around the country grinds to a halt for two days each March - a 48-hour period many fans consider the best in sports each year - as we wait for our Cinderellas to emerge. We wait for the double-digit seed we knew nothing about that will captivate us and exhilarate us and have us screaming at our TVs as they pull off a most unlikely upset. We wait for another. A third, perhaps. These upsets never get old.

We're holding out hope that someday we'll witness the impossible, a No. 16 seed taking out a No. 1, the one thing that's never happened amid all the chaos and unpredictability of the NCAA tournament. But until then, we're comforted by teams like high-flying, dunk-happy Florida Gulf Coast, which last year beat No. 2 Georgetown and then became the first No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, seven No. 15 seeds have beaten No. 2 seeds; it's happened three times in the past two years. Seventeen 14s have beaten 3s, including a most unlikely underdog - Harvard - taking out New Mexico last March.

We remember Kyle O'Quinn, the gregarious Norfolk State senior forever immortalized in March Madness lore because of a 15-2 upset over Missouri in 2012. His eyes wide in disbelief, his smile stretching from ear to ear - the image snapped just after the final buzzer encapsulated the unbridled joy of an improbable upset.

We remember C.J. McCollum's 30 points to push Lehigh past Duke in Greensboro. We remember Steph Curry before he was Steph Curry leading Davidson to an Elite Eight in 2008. We remember meeting Shaka Smart and learning what HAVOC meant during VCU's Final Four run in 2011. We remember Butler, both times. We remember the first 15 to take out a 2, Dick Tarrant's Richmond Spiders upsetting Jim Boeheim and Syracuse back in 1991. We remember names, faces, moments.

Parity has come up often in recent years, particularly because of teams like Butler, VCU and Wichita State. But it's shown up in major early-round upsets, too. Last March alone, three No. 12 seeds, one No. 13 seed, one No. 14 seed and one No. 15 seed all won their round-of-64 games.

"A while ago, you would see a lot of the guys who are (now) one-and-done stay longer," says former Norfolk State coach Anthony Evans, now at Florida International. "There was a clear gap between the levels. Nowadays, that isn't as big a gap. That experience isn't there. If a McDonald's All-American comes in or there's two on a team, they still don't have the experience that some of the other schools who have seniors who have been together for awhile have.

"That advantage is not always there."

How can we predict which teams will become this year's Cinderella? It's nearly impossible because so much depends on particular matchups. "Any time you're picked to be a Cinderella," ESPN analyst Fraschilla says, "you're almost never it." But with the help of the coaches and players who have made headlines in recent years, we've outlined some trends.

"I stressed to my players, it isn't necessarily the better team that wins," Tarrant says now. "It's the team that plays better basketball in that 40-minute time frame. If you can play real good ball between tipoff and the finish, you can beat much better teams who are bigger, stronger, faster."

Says Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim, the victim of the first 15-2 upset in 1991: "It happens because, for the last 10, 15, 20 years, those smaller schools think they can win - even more so now. The pressure kind of goes to the favored team.

"It's difficult. You don't like it, but it happens."

The ingredients for an NCAA upset:

VETERAN PLAYERS

As Evans suggested, mid-major teams are generally full of three- and four-year players, making the ones that reach the NCAA tournament experienced squads with good chemistry and camaraderie. Lehigh and Norfolk State, which pulled off 15-2 upsets within hours of each other in 2012, both had lots of juniors and seniors. McCollum was a junior and two-time Patriot League Player of the Year. O'Quinn was a senior and MEAC Player of the Year.

"With experience comes games under your belt and all you've been through," says O'Quinn. "Going into the game, we obviously knew the odds were against us; that was the toughest part to deal with. Once you get over that aspect, you start thinking, 'Man, this could be my last college game.' I think for the seniors, which was a lot of us, we just said we had one last shot to get one last game. We didn't want it to be our last game."

Norfolk State and Florida Gulf Coast both won games in their program's first NCAA tournament appearance, but that's rare. Consider the cases of Lehigh, Harvard and Davidson. All three had been to the NCAA tournament in the year or two leading up to their big upsets, so a significant portion of their rosters were unfazed by the spotlight and not overwhelmed by the moment.

"(We) certainly talked about not wanting to just be satisfied by just being there," Harvard coach Tommy Amaker says. "We really talked about advancing."

Says longtime Davidson coach Bob McKillop: "The year before (2008), we had played Maryland. We had had a lead. I think we had like an eight-point lead in the 16-minute mark of the second half. We did not know how to respond to that. When we had the deficit against Gonzaga and against Georgetown (a year later), we knew how to respond.

"We had been there in that tournament setting before. That's one of the difficulties for teams that are not regular participants in the NCAA tournament. Those rosters do not get that kind of experience."

Teams in the 2014 NCAA tournament field that fit this mold include Manhattan, Harvard, North Dakota State and Western Michigan.

CONFIDENCE

There's a fine line between confident and cocky, but it's important to be right on the border if you're a low seed facing a perennial power or one of the best teams in the game that season.

"You have to be confident," VCU coach Shaka Smart says. "All the advantages of being an underdog and being overlooked and having nothing to lose - all that goes out the window if you don't have confidence. In the absence of confidence, anxiety creeps in."

Some of that confidence stems from experience; other pieces come from faith players have in one another or their coach. But it's vital during preparation for the game and its first few minutes.

"There's the mental approach of convincing your team you can win a game like that," says Fraschilla, who coached No. 13 Manhattan to an upset of No. 4 Oklahoma in 1995. Or, as Amaker puts it, it's important that your team answers each time your opponent goes on a run.

The flip side of an underdog having confidence is the favorite having too much. Or the higher seed looking ahead to a possible Sweet 16 or Elite Eight matchup. Unlike Norfolk State's regular-season opponents, Evans says, Missouri didn't double team O'Quinn. O'Quinn took advantage of the one-on-one coverage and dominated the paint, scoring 26 points and grabbing 14 rebounds.

"The higher seed may have a level of overconfidence," Smart says. "They may look at the name of the lower seed and not have the same level of respect. What happens is, and you see it happen in these games, like C.J. McCollum for instance. You get out there on the court, and it's like, 'Whoa, you guys are better than we thought.' It's too late at that point to all of the sudden respect the opponent as much as maybe you should have in advance."

Last season, New Mexico was a trendy pick for a Final Four run. At the very least, fans and analysts expected the Lobos to set up a date with sixth-seeded Arizona in the round of 32.

"Sometimes you can get teams to overlook you because of what's on the horizon," Amaker says. "I'm not saying they did that, but the matchup everyone thought was going to take place was New Mexico-Arizona. ‚?¶ I think some of those elements can play, even if it's a subconscious role in the psyche or mindset of teams. That could have been a piece of the puzzle for us."

An underdog 2014 NCAA tournament team that fits this mold is Stephen F. Austin, which hasn't lost since Nov. 23 and doesn't try to be something it's not.

A STAR PLAYER

Now, they're on NBA rosters. But they became household names because of dynamic NCAA tournament appearances.

"Having one great player that people don't realize how good they are (is key)," says Fraschilla, who mentions Wally Szczerbiak, who led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 in 1999 as a No. 10 seed.

Multiple players fit this mold in recent years. Curry at Davidson. McCollum at Lehigh. Kenneth Faried at Morehead State. O'Quinn at Norfolk State. If a double-digit seed has a guy like that, better watch out.

"When you have a player who can elevate his level of play, it helps any team in that type of environment," says Lehigh coach Brett Reed. "The floor was opened up for C.J. ‚?¶ He just rose to the moment."

Says McCollum: "I knew the only way we were going to be able to win was going to be if I took over the game and left my mark. I told my told my brother and parents going into the game, if I got 30 we'd win."

McCollum scored 30 in Lehigh's upset of Duke in 2012. Faried had 12 points and 17 rebounds in Morehead State's 13-over-4 upset of Louisville a year before. O'Quinn posted 26 points and 14 rebounds to lead Norfolk State past Missouri. Butler's Gordon Hayward carried the Bulldogs into the 2010 national championship game.

The best example: Steph Curry's 2008 NCAA tournament. He scored, in succession, 40 points against Gonzaga, 30 against Georgetown, 33 against Wisconsin and 25 against Kansas.

"Without doubt, Stephen Curry's presence was the first ingredient to our upsets," says McKillop, the Davidson coach. "He was as vital to pulling off those upsets as he was vital to leading us to the number of wins that we had during the season. I never talked to him about needing to step up. I talked to him very directly and clearly that the rhythm of the season must become the rhythm of the postseason."

Underdog teams with players that fit that mold in this year's NCAA tournament field include BYU with Tyler Haws, Louisiana-Lafayette with Elfrid Payton, Mercer with Langston Hall, Eastern Kentucky with Glenn Cosey and Weber State with Davion Berry.

CHALLENGING SCHEDULE/ROAD GAMES

Last season, Florida Gulf Coast played games at VCU, Duke and Iowa State, all tournament teams. The Eagles also hosted Miami, who would end up winning both the regular-season ACC title and the ACC tournament. FGCU was not in awe of the second-seeded Hoyas when it drew them in the round of 64.

"We played a lot of power conferences on their home floors, really, guarantee/buy games," says former Florida Gulf Coast coach Andy Enfield, now at USC. "Our players were excited and confident to have a chance to compete against a team like Georgetown, the Big East co-champ, on a neutral court. ‚?¶ They were able to seize the moment. It was their opportunity, and they were not overwhelmed by it."

Norfolk State had played Marquette twice during the 2011-12 regular season. Norfolk State was blown out on the road but lost by just two in the Paradise Jam tournament title game.

"That was definitely a confidence-builder," says Evans. "(Marquette and Missouri) were similar teams. I thought Marquette was a little more physical. When we were in conference, Coppin State was a lot like them. They played four guards, liked to get up and down the floor. There were some similarities. We felt we had a good matchup."

Take a look at the schedules of the mid-major teams that earn NCAA tournament bids. Even a surprising team headed to the First Four as a No. 16 seed, 13-19 Big West champ Cal Poly, has played Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Pittsburgh and Delaware on the road.

Last season, VCU played Florida Gulf Coast, which went to the Sweet 16, and Wichita State, which reached the Final Four, in back-to-back games. Smart saw first-hand how important games like that are for potential Cinderellas.

"Experience, particularly in the backcourt and a tough-minded approach of teams that can go anywhere, play anyone," says Smart. "If you look at teams that have won on the road during the regular season and gone into hostile environments, those are maybe some of the indicators, clues of teams that might overachieve in March."

Mid-major teams in the 2014 NCAA tournament field that played grueling non-conference schedules include BYU, Cal Poly, New Mexico State, Tulsa and Wofford.

A UNIQUE STYLE OF PLAY

Enfield does not like to say that Florida Gulf Coast did anything out of the ordinary last year, even though the Eagles' fun, fast-paced, dunk-friendly offense gained its fair share of attention ‚?? including to the Harlem Globetrotters.

"We just spread the floor and tried to play uptempo basketball," Enfield says. "We also averaged nine steals a game. We tried to get our offense going with our defense. I guess you could say we had a style to our team, but I don't consider our style unusual. ‚?¶ At the mid-major level, our style enabled us to compete at a higher level because of certain strengths we had."

Smart and VCU agree. They've proven over the years ‚?? and certainly during their 2011 Final Four run ‚?? that their swarming HAVOC defense is extremely difficult for opponents to prepare for, especially on short turnarounds.

"Style of play differences have been good for us, when we play teams that just haven't seen ours," Smart says.

In fact, for teams and programs that play in a unique way, it can be almost easier to play in the NCAA tournament than it is to compete in conference play.

"When you play in your own conference, you play each team twice, and you're scouted so much by your fellow teams in your league," Enfield says. "Usually, they're able to make adjustments because they're just more familiar with your team. When you get to the NCAA tournament, everything happens so quickly."

That forces opponents to scramble and can leave the opportunity for an upset open.

Teams in the 2014 field that fit this mold include Manhattan with its motion offense, Weber State and its run-and-gun style, New Mexico State and the system it runs through 7-5 Sim Bhullar and Stephen F. Austin with its turnover-generating defense.

3-POINT SHOOTING

Start with 3-point shooting. You'll need to outscore an opponent that might be bigger and more athletic than you are. Some teams that pull off upsets are generally good perimeter-shooting teams, like last year's Harvard squad ‚?? "We thought that was a big piece for us, no matter who we played," Amaker says ‚?? and others get hot at the right time. Against Missouri, Norfolk State shot 52.6% from beyond the arc.

"We hit 10 3-point shots in that game," Evans says. "We hadn't done that all year long. Being able to knock down our perimeter shots kept us in the game. Everyone knew that Missouri was a high-scoring team, and we weren't. I thought if we stayed in the 70s, we would have a chance. I had no idea we would be able to score 86 points against them."

Beyond that, you have to take and make high-percentage shots.

"Teams that upset others don't shoot 32% and 29% from three," says Tarrant, the former Richmond coach. "After good shot selection, you have to stress team defense, because you have to stop people to win. They're going to make a run, but you have to put the stops on. Then, rebounding. Then, taking care of the ball and limiting turnovers. ‚?¶ "You're not going to out-rebound these monsters, but you can stay with them."

Teams qualified for the 2014 NCAA tournament that rank among the nation's top 35 teams in 3-point field goal percentage include Eastern Kentucky, Weber State, Harvard and Mercer. North Dakota State, meanwhile, is the nation's overall field-goal percentage leader.

A LITTLE BIT OF LUCK

Coaches always like to say, winning requires you to be good ‚?? and lucky. The same holds true in the NCAA tournament. From tip times to locations to simply a favorable matchup, underdogs can always use a bit of good fortune.

Davidson played its first two games in nearby Raleigh in 2008, bringing with it a good crowd. Butler played in the Final Four hosted by its hometown Indianapolis. Even what appears to be a disadvantage ‚?? Lehigh having to play Duke in Greensboro, N.C. ‚?? can turn into an advantage. Because Greensboro is also close to Chapel Hill, North Carolina also was sent to that early-round site. Tar Heels fans roared in support of the Mountain Hawks' upset bid.

"C.J. was maybe the best player on the floor," Amaker says. "The momentum that you can generate, that force of power that can be created in the arena itself, the pressure that builds on the higher-seeded team."

There are other minor factors to consider. Though a review of tipoff times showed major early-round upsets happen at all hours of the day, some people believe that timing matters.

"I know it sounds crazy, but when do you play the game?" Fraschilla says. "You'll be amazed at how many upsets happen in the early part of the day. The year we beat Oklahoma (in 1995), No. 12 Miami of Ohio and Herb Sendek was knocking off No. 5 Arizona at the same time ‚?? the very first couple of games at the NCAA tournament.

"I told my team, 'We're going to wake up better than Oklahoma.' "

ENDURANCE

Florida Gulf Coast's ability to win a second game and become the first No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16 was impressive ‚?? not just because it was the program's NCAA tournament debut but also because the players didn't get caught up in the emotions and excitement of winning the first game.

"You've never been to that second game before," Evans says. "The preparation is a little foreign. The excitement is still there. And the other team has had a chance to see you. It was nice to see Florida Gulf Coast win its first game, get to the second game and play the same way."

Past underdogs like Evans and O'Quinn were rooting for the Eagles when they made their run last year.

"Of course I was pulling for those guys," O'Quinn says. "I know the feeling that was going through their bodies. I'm sure those guys were on a cloud higher than nine."

A key to sustaining an NCAA tournament run is coaching. With short turnarounds between games and ever-increasing pressure mounting the deeper a team goes, assistant coaches who scout, analyze and prepare game plans are vital. The rest of this recipe ‚?? having an experienced, confident group with a star player who can carry you, if you can swing it ‚?? remains important, too, the longer they play.

Still, it's worth noting there are some people who may not root for Cinderellas quite like the rest of us. They're the ones broadcasting the games.

"Ratings were always critical, so you always wanted the right match ups and the right games," says American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco, who worked as the executive vice president at CBS Sports and oversaw NCAA tournament coverage. "The truth is, every now and then, the Cinderella story was terrific. But you also wanted those big guys duking it out at the end.

"You're always torn because those brand names are the ones that typically generate the ratings, but I can remember so many upsets, so many great moments. That tournament is always going to have them. It's part of the charm."

That's what we bank on each year when we fill out our brackets and turn on our television set. We never know who will fill those roles. And at the end of the day, even those involved in Cinderella stories laugh at the idea that they could identify the next one.

"If I could," Smart says, "I should retire from coaching and go to Vegas."