Daniel K. Tarullo, a former member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve, draws two sharp and sound, yet unsurprising, conclusions from his eight-year (2009-2017) service:

“The substantive point is that we do not, at present, have a theory of inflation dynamics that works sufficiently well to be of use for the business of real-time monetary policy-making. The sociological point is that many (though certainly not all) good monetary policymakers who were formally trained as such have an almost instinctual attachment to some of those problematic concepts and hard-to-estimate variables… The macroeconomists [on the FOMC] seemed to display an almost paradoxical coincidence of intellectual doubt and continued affirmation of the utility of some unobservables.”

Many thanks for all 3 pieces on AoCB, Oleg; this is important stuff !
CB are about policing the fiat credit money of private banks by planning agency.
Some scientific tools are applied, but it works as informed guess.
In any case, the statement that there were only 3 real human inventions:
the fire, the wheel and central banking, holds some truth.

When I was ‘touring’ some days in Denmark with Warren Mosler (publishing his book The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy) – and at the Conference of Post-Keynesian economics in April, 2017, – Mosler was saying in a discussion that there exists no reliable theory of inflation.