2016 Iowa Caucus Rolling Updates

Tonight marks the first major electoral event of the 2016 presidential cycle: the Iowa caucuses. Keep checking back for updates as the ABC News political team reports from the Hawkeye State on caucus night.

Iowa Caucuses 2016: How The Caucuses Work

ABC’s JEFF NAFT: After months of hitting the campaign trail and fiery debates among presidential candidates, today marks a permanent shift in the 2016 presidential race: actual voting. The Iowa caucuses are significant because of their first-in-the-nation timing and their historic tradition.

A good showing in Iowa is vital. No candidate that has finished worse than third has ever gone on to win the presidency.http://abcn.ws/1RTv0OY

The Hawkeye State hosts the first official nominating contest of the 2016 presidential campaign. Find out how it works.

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 4:11:12 PM

Examining the Iowa Caucus Track Record on Predicting Presidents

ABC’s PAOLA CHAVEZ: The Iowa caucuses have been the first major electoral event of the presidential election cycle since the 1970s, and today serve the role of winnowing the field and helping anti-establishment candidates pick up steam.

Most recently in 2008, Barack Obama, Iowa’s nominee, upset Hillary Clinton and went on to become commander-in-chief. But in years past, see just how good Iowans have been at predicting the President of the United States.http://abcn.ws/1nDblqc

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 4:54:00 PM

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 4:54:16 PM

What the Candidates are Up to Ahead of Tonight

ABC's RYAN STRUYK and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI:Donald Trump and Ted Cruz aren’t letting up on the gas pedal as they come down the home stretch in to the Iowa caucuses. Trump has two rallies this afternoon before his watch party tonight. Cruz also has two events this afternoon.Ben Carson is holding two rallies this afternoon before his caucus watch party tonight. Rand Paul is holding a rally this afternoon after an agriculture roundtable this morning. And Marco Rubio, the momentum candidate heading into the caucuses, will be visiting three caucus sites and speaking to caucus-goes before his caucus celebration tonight.

But some candidates, facing a lackluster performance in the Hawkeye State, have already turned their eyes to New Hampshire. Jeb Bush will be in Iowa this afternoon and then head to New Hampshire for a townhall tonight. Chris Christie will be in Iowa this morning before heading to New Hampshire. John Kasich will be in New Hampshire all day with two townhall meetings.

On the other side of the aisle, the two Democratic candidates that are locked in a battle in Iowa seem to be taking it easy today. Bernie Sanders isn’t holding any events besides a watch party at 9 PM. And at 9:30PM,Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton will be hosting a “victory party” at Drake University for Hillary Clinton. Martin O’Malley is staying busy with five events in four different Iowan cities.

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 5:08:50 PM

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in Dead Heat in Iowa

ABC’s PAOLA CHAVEZ: Hillary Clinton and main opponent, Bernie Sanders are in dead heat in the Hawkeye State.

Ahead of the caucuses, Clinton holds a razor-thin lead over Sanders, 48 percent to 45 percent, Martin O’Malley behind at 3 percent.

While the Democratic rivals are locked in a tight race, there is a significant gender gap among their supporters. Men support Sanders 58 percent to 35 percent, while women are in favor of Clinton 57 percent to 37 percent.

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 5:15:00 PM

Marco Rubio's Expectations for the Day

ABC's CORINNE CATHCART: Despite the high stakes of the day, Senator Marco Rubio seemed calm as he spent his Iowa Caucus day morning eating breakfast in Clive with his family. After eating some blueberry pancakes, Rubio talked about his expectations for the day. He said his campaign will move forward regardless of what the results are tonight. “It’ll be important but no one’s going to win the nomination tonight,” he said. Rubio chatted with fellow diners before departing for the day.

Trump's 'Quickie' Stop as It's 'Crunch Time' in Iowa

ABC's JOHN SANTUCCI: Trump, speaking to a couple hundred gathered in Waterloo this morning, says this is a big day.The room is half full but there is also very heavy fog outside."It's crunch time," he told the crowd."Incredible thing here with a movement."

Trump hit Ted Cruz telling the group, "you're ethanol business if Ted Cruz gets in will be wiped out in 6 months to a year." He also reminded them that Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said Cruz would be a mistake for Iowa.

He also presented a check for $100k to another Vets group from the fundraiser the other night - Waterloo based organization that helps veterans who have special needs have functional homes.

Trump was hoping to fly from this event to his big rally in Cedar Rapids with Palin later today but due to intense fog he is now forced to drive.

Why Iowa Caucuses are a Do-or-Die for Some Candidates

ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI: For some candidates, the Iowa caucuses are a last stand in the fight for the White House.

Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, both winners of the 2008 and 2012 Iowa caucus respectively, are polling in the low single digits and there’s a slim chance either of them will win again in 2016.

Santorum told ABC News that ,”...if we can finish above a bunch of them, a majority of them, that gives me a bunch of hope our message is resonating, we have an opportunity to go forward.”

Once the results are known, look for the GOP field to be whittled down from 12 candidates.

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 5:45:00 PM

That Time Trump and Palin Took Iowa by Storm

ABC’s ANDREA GONZALES: Billionaire presidential candidate Donald Trump got a “huge” endorsement in Ames by a former vice-president candidate. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was one of the highest-profile endorsements to happen before the Iowa caucuses.

Palin praised that he was from the private sector with a “Halleluja!” She later asked the crowd if they were ready for a commander-in-chief who will” kick ISIS ass.”

These GOP Candidates Can’t Leave Iowa Quickly Enough

ABC’s BRAD MIELKE: After more than a year of prognostication and punditry, the Iowa caucuses will finally get underway Monday night.

But don’t expect Republican candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie or John Kasich to linger over the results. They’ll already be in New Hampshire.

The three governors, locked in a fierce fight for moderate voters in the race for the GOP nomination, have all but given up hope on a strong finish in the Hawkeye State. In the smaller, more moderate state of New Hampshire, each candidate sees stronger support and a clearer path to the nomination.

Christie, who has spent more days in New Hampshire than any other candidate, will launch a bus tour, while Bush, who has diverted much of his Miami staff to the state, will begin a series of town halls.

Kasich beat them to the punch as he left Iowa for good on Friday, opting to spend his weekend holding town halls across the Granite State. http://abcn.ws/1P4YJyO

'The Full Grassley'

ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI: Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum have all completed the “Full Grassley” in hopes of getting out their message to Iowans.

Completing the “Full Grassley” -- inspired by Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley -- is when a candidate has held campaign events in all of Iowa’s 99 counties.

Huckabee was the first to finish the “Full Grassley” at the beginning of January, Santorum did so this weekend, and Cruz completed it today.

Last week at a campaign stop in Iowa, Cruz explained his reasoning for doing the “Full Grassley”: “I believe anyone who wishes to serve as president needs to demonstrate the humility and respect to go directly and ask for the support and have your record scrutinized.”

“If you plant the seeds, even, you know, from six months ago, people remember you, they’ve been with you, they’ve talked to you. It turned out, in the past, that that’s been a real big help for us," Santorum, won the Iowa caucus in 2012, told ABC News.

A sizable number of voters remain undecided hours before the caucusing begins, but many of their friends and neighbors have picked a candidate and are campaigning for him or her in force.

From the Jeb Bush backer whose whoops can be heard across auditoriums to supporters in superhero outfits to die-hard fans with homemade Bernie Sanders T-shirts, here are the most colorful and passionate characters ABC News reporters have encountered in Iowa: http://abcn.ws/23EnPy2

Can the Establishment Make A Comeback?

ABC’s JEFF NAFT: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Marco Rubio: One big question is whether one of the so-called “establishment” candidates will get enough momentum from the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire to not only keep them in the race but also have a shot of overtaking the likes ofbillionaire business mogul Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

A strong performance could definitely go a long way, but with the establishment vote split between Rubio, Bush, Christie, and Kasich, the candidates continue to siphon votes away from one another.Iowa probably won’t do much to winnow the establishment wing, but New Hampshire definitely could.

Still hitting single digits are Rand Paul with 5 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 3 percent. Despite opting to skip the last Republican debate hosted by Fox News, Trump climbed 6 points since the last Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll.

Iowa Caucuses Surprised Us 5 Times

ABC’s ALANA ABRAMSON: For over 40 years, the Iowa caucuses have been a launching pad for some presidential candidates to secure the party's nomination. But while they have been the source of elation for some, they have dashed the aspirations of other presidential hopefuls, or often totally surprising the general public. Here are some of the most memorable results from Iowa's caucuses through the decades:http://abcn.ws/1So6F4s

The Weirdest Iowa Caucus Locations

Today, Iowans across the state will gather to elect the first delegates of the 2016 presidential election cycle.Usually, voters huddle in local schools, churches or other government buildings. But some state parties took some creative liberties with choosing a polling location.

Here are a few of the most interesting caucus locations of 2016: The Old Ambulance Building, Skunk River Arms Gun Shop, Northgate Mall Hy-Vee Grocery Store, Grain Elevator, Fore Seasons Golf Practice Center, just to name a few. http://abcn.ws/1UxsNGV

by Veronica.Stracqualursi2/1/2016 7:45:00 PM

The peril of having a campaign event in a gym. Man keeps up workout while @tedcruz answers questions in Jefferson,IA

Bernie Sanders: 'We are Taking This All the Way'

Bernie Sanders said Monday that while his campaign wants to win in Iowa, the outcome of the caucus will not make or break his campaign.

“Of course we want to win here but if we end up getting two delegates less than Hillary Clinton - why is that the end?” he told reporters from the steps of his campaign bus after making a quick stop to talk to volunteers at his Iowa campaign head quarters in Des Moines. Sanders is neck and neck in the polls with Hillary Clinton in this first caucus state. He said regardless of the result in this first contest, he's in it for the long haul.

“This is a national campaign. We are in to win at the convention,” he continued. “We are taking this all the way.”

According to the Senator, his campaign has hosted over 100 town meetings in Iowa. He told fans Monday morning that as of yesterday over 70,000 people in the state have come to see him speak in person.

As for tonight? Sanders said it is all about voter turnout. “You got a tied ball game. We will win tonight if voter turnout is high. We will struggle tonight if voter turnout is low.”

The top issue being discussed in Iowa today is the economy, with 16% of the overall conversation focused on it. The top candidate being discussed on Facebook is Bernie Sanders followed by Donald Trump.

ABC's CANDACE SMITH: At his last event before he hightails it to New Hampshire, Bush spoke in front of a boisterous crowd, filled with supporters and some undecided voters who chanted “PRESIDENT BUSH!” as he walked in. About 20-30 of the attendees were Florida friends of Bush, many of those will represent him at caucus precincts tonight.

He was introduced by Gov. Terry Branstad (who is not endorsing anyone yet) who praised his record on fiscal conservatism and education, saying that he’s still trying to get his state to where Florida was.

Shortly after Bush began his stump, two guys stood up and said that they’ve been waiting for 2 hours and still hadn’t gotten paid. Bush scoffed and told them to" get out of here, man, move on” as the crowd booed the guys and security escorted them out.

Backstory: This flier began making its rounds on Twitter, appearing to advertise paying people to attend Bush’s event.

The campaign has called it a blatant lie and is accusing the Super PAC supporting Marco Rubio of passing this around. Jeff Sadowsky, who tweeted this out, is the Con­ser­vat­ive Solu­tions PAC spokesman. Sadowsky, on Twitter, denies the Super PAC being behind anything.