Abstract
To date, probabilistic design methods of channel widths are still under development. This is partlybecause there are no suitable models available. Real-time simulators are too expensive and timeconsuming to be often applied for full probabalistic channel design. While autopilot fast-time simulationmodels exclude one very important factor – human behavior - so that the results need furtherinterpretation.In order to fill the gap between the two existing simulation methods, a new simulation model, namelyprobabilistic fast-time simulation model is developed in the study. The new model takes four mainvariables related to human behavior into account, i.e. varied time intervals of command settings,rudder error, position threshold and rudder threshold. The properties of the four variables are derivedfrom and verified with Ennore real-time simulations. The recommended input parameters of the newmodel are suitable for big vessels transiting straight one-way outer channel sections. The newsimulation model is applied for probabilistic design of the access channel to the port of Coega. Theresulting channel widths are reasonable. Therefore, the development and application of the newprobabilistic fast-time simulation model can be regarded successful and promising.