Which Two Teams Will Create The Biggest World Series Buzz?

The 2018 postseason is down to just four teams. Here's the two that make for the best ratings and drive national interest (Image credit: Getty Images)Map via Getty Images

Major League Baseball is into its final four for the 2018 season. As the League Championship Series kicks off, it will be the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Boston Red Sox versus the Houston Astros.

For fans of the game, all that matters is they get the best baseball. That’s it. It doesn’t matter which teams make the World Series, as long as the play is memorable.

For FOX, and those that wish to place some kind of weight on how the television ratings speak to the national popularity of baseball, there are some match-ups that work better than others. Here's how and why two teams out of the four create the biggest buzz for the 2018 World Series

Baseball Is A Brand-Driven Sport

If you examine the popularity of sports on television, comparing the major sports leagues often leads to an apples to oranges comparison. The NBA is a heavily star-driven league. LeBron James can go from Cleveland to Miami, back to Cleveland, and now to Los Angeles, and the popularity of the clubs in those markets will see extreme swings for television nationally. While it doesn’t hurt to have stars in MLB’s postseason, interest is largely around the club brands.

If you think about how different the games are played, this makes some sense and highlights MLB’s marketing challenges. In basketball, the players are on offense and defense with the camera able to keep them in-frame at all times. Star players are also largely off the bench, which showcases them non-stop for extended periods.

For baseball, stars are shown infrequently. Pitchers get the most screen time but may only be up in the rotation every fifth day. Position players are at the plate approx. 1-2 innings. Therefore, average fan interest is most-often driven off historical teams in large markets.

Spanning The Country; Mostly Large Markets

Overall, MLB has a good mix of teams by location in the League Championship Series. The Red Sox and Dodgers cover each coast, with the Astros and Brewers covering the South and upper Midwest. To add, with Milwaukee the exception, all come from large markets, both by population and designated market area (DMA), the measure of television households by market.

Market

Pop Rk

Pop Est.

TV Homes

% US TVs

Los Angeles

2

20,320,876

5,476,830

4.775

Houston

5

6,892,427

2,450,800

2.137

Boston

10

4,836,531

2,424,240

2.114

Milwaukee

39

1,576,236

895,700

0.781

Source: Census estimates, Nielsen

Storied Brands, Generational Fans

The four teams left in the postseason have varying degrees of historical significance based on how old they are, which creates generational fan bases. The Boston Red Sox have the advantage here given that they were founded in 1901 and continue to play in Fenway Park, MLB’s second-oldest ballpark. Chances are if you live in New England and are a Red Sox fan, there’s a good chance your parents were fans of the team, and their parents were. The Red Sox have also collected eight World Series Championships with three since 2000 (2004, 2007, and 2013). The Dodgers have a long history (founded in 1884) and relocated from Brooklyn to Los Angeles in 1957. They have had six World Series Championships, with the last being in 1988.

From the Red Sox and Dodgers, there is a sizable gap, yet both the Brewers and Astros have compelling history, albeit shorter. The Astros were founded in 1962 and while they only have the one World Series Championship, it came last year making it fresh in everyone’s mind. The Brewers were founded in 1969 and have never won a World Series. They have appeared in just the 1982 World Series losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games.

Compelling Storylines

Beyond the brands, the biggest way to pull in the average fan is through compelling storylines. We've seen this in the recent past with lengthy futility streaks being broken by the Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. From that perspective, the Brewers have the biggest story. Having never won a World Series in their 48-year history, and hailing from a small market, the Brew Crew are the David to the Goliaths left in the postseason hunt.

From a symmetry perspective, the Dodgers have the lengthy gap between World Series wins, and nice round numbers: should they win in 2018 it will be exactly 30 years since they last won the Fall Classic.

For the Astros the story is being able to win back-to-back World Series Championships, something not done since the New York Yankees won three in a row from 1998-2000.

Fans tend to focus on player payroll, and in that, the LCS sees some interesting numbers.

Based on Opening Day payrolls, the Red Sox lead the led the league heading into the season with a player payroll of $224,084,829. After leading the league for several years, the Dodgers dropped to 5th overall with player payroll of $178,913,453, followed by the Astros in 10th at $157,571,319. But it is the Brewers that continue to be the team that gets the most from the league with an Opening Day payroll of just $89,767,516 ranking them 25th out of the 30 clubs.

Some other compelling storylines…

How about the idea that we could see the NL and AL MVPs in the World Series. Both Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Christian Yelich of the Brewers have high probabilities of winning the awards.

Both David Price and Clayton Kershaw have both won Cy Young Awards (Price in 2012 with the Tampa Bay Rays. Kershaw has won it three times; 2011, 2013, 2014), but neither have a World Series Championship.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora could join a very small fraternity of rookie managers to win a World Series. He would join Bucky Harris (1924 Washington Senators), Eddie Dyer (1946 St. Louis Cardinals), Ralph Houk (1961 New York Yankees), and Bob Brenly (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks) to win in their first year as managers.

If the Red Sox and Dodgers were to meet, it would be the first time since 1916. Okay, technically it was the Boston Red Sox vs. the Brooklyn Robins, but you get the idea. There has never been a battle between the two historic teams in not only the television era, but radio age, as well.

So, What’s The Best Match-Up For Television Ratings And Buzz?

Based on brand, market size, and location, the best match-up for television ratings and social media buzz is going to be the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. the Boston Red Sox. There’s just too much power in the bi-coastal battle. There will be great stories and interest if the Brewers or Astros make the World Series and win it, but it doesn’t have the broad appeal for fans that tune in largely just for the Fall Classic.

What’s The One Thing That Will Drive Buzz No Matter Who Is In The World Series?

Outside of any of the data and storylines, if there’s one thing that creates buzz, it’s having the World Series go as many games as possible. Game 7s for all the marbles make otherwise “normal” match-ups, shine. A good example of this was the 2014 World Series, in which the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals had some marks against it going in (Giants had won two championships since 2010 and Kansas City being a small market), but had a lot of drama.

Who Really Wins?

Us. The fans that watch baseball regularly. It’s the postseason. It’s a holiday every day that it’s being played. For fans of the game. For fans of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Brewers, and Astros, here’s to you. Everyone’s a winner.

Other written work of mine can be found at Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and USA Today. Freelance work can be found at Variety Weekly and the New York Times.

My work has been sourced for analysis and commentary in the NY Times, Time Magazine, USA Today, Boston Globe, C...