Thursday, August 4, 2016

Bonddad's Thursday Linkfest

Following the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union, the exchange rate has fallen and the outlook for growth in the short to medium term has weakened markedly. The fall in sterling is likely to push up on CPI inflation in the near term, hastening its return to the 2% target and probably causing it to rise above the target in the latter part of the MPC’s forecast period, before the exchange rate effect dissipates thereafter. In the real economy, although the weaker medium-term outlook for activity largely reflects a downward revision to the economy’s supply capacity, near-term weakness in demand is likely to open up a margin of spare capacity, including an eventual rise in unemployment. Consistent with this, recent surveys of business activity, confidence and optimism suggest that the United Kingdom is likely to see little growth in GDP in the second half of this year.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 55.5 percent in July, 1 percentage point lower than the June reading of 56.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.3 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the June reading of 59.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 84th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in July. The New Orders Index registered 60.3 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the reading of 59.9 percent in June. The Employment Index decreased 1.3 percentage points in July to 51.4 percent from the June reading of 52.7 percent. The Prices Index decreased 3.6 percentage points from the June reading of 55.5 percent to 51.9 percent, indicating prices increased in July for the fourth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. The majority of the respondents’ comments reflect stability and continued growth for their respective companies and a positive outlook on the economy."

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