Sunday, 5 June 2016

Out of the Shadows

The 2.40 at Perth looks a competitive affair but that should
mean there’s some value around and there are some I’m happy to oppose that take a chunk out of the market.

Mister First is one such animal. Formerly a frustrating type
with a 3/40 record over fences, he’s since won two weak races at the course and
now finds himself on a career high perch in a much deeper race. He's clearly in the form of his life but I can see him
being friendless in the market throughout the day and is readily opposed.

Vesperal Dream won this race last year and is just 1lb
higher now after only two lesser efforts in the interim. He loves quick ground and
this has clearly been the plan so will have his supporters. But this looks a
deeper renewal and he’s none too consistent.

Katgary used to be trained by Paul Nicholls but was
off-loaded after dismal efforts this spring at Cheltenham and Newbury. He made
a decent fist of it on his first outing for the new yard but connections
immediately go back for some headgear, and although it’s too early to write him
off, he has questions to answer.

Imjoeking ought to go well if fully wound up, which you can
expect him to be. He’s gone well fresh before but you have to be concerned that
he’s only run twice in almost two years. There’s not much leeway in his mark
and he might need a PB to take this...that’s a tall order even though trip and
ground are in his favour.

Shadows Lengthen is my idea of the winner. The 10-year-old
had an enviable 5/13 record over fences but has since gone seven without a win.
However, he’s down to 1lb below his last winning mark and proved here two runs
ago that he retains all his ability – a mistake two out costing each-way
punters dear.

I fancied him at Stratford last time out but the ground had
gone after pre-meeting rain and despite wins on soft early in his career he
just doesn’t seem to go on it anymore.

In this grade he just has a touch of class and for the
record his stats in Class 3 chases over about 2m4f on good ground are 211,
while his last win at Wetherby 20 months ago came in a weak Class 1 event. In a
nutshell, everything is in place for a very big run.

Of the others; Kilgefin Star is a likable type but has
something to prove jumping-wise and didn’t show enough on his return from a
break to warrant consideration off this mark.

Jet Master is 2/11 over fences
but very hard to win with – everything has to fall right. The handicapper has
been very kind in dropping him 7lb since his last run and there’s no reason why
he can’t have a say off this mark if things go his way. Gleann Na Dochais is
0/12 in Class 3 and the other pair are easily opposed.

Conclusion: Vesperal Dream, Imjoeking and Jet Master will
have their supporters and rightly so, but having backed Shadows Lengthen the
last twice I’m not deserting him now with everything in his favour. I’m
slightly worried about the pace angle but Kilgefin Star and Cowards Close like
to press so hopefully there’ll be no dawdling, that wouldn’t suit my selection.

About Me

I was a sub-editor for several analogue and digital platforms for almost 20 years before deciding to go racing full-time in 2014. I get my edge from assessing a horse's chances by viewing them before the race. This, together with other important factors such as form analysis, stats and the betting market, gives me an edge over the layers in the long-term.
Viewing a horse's fitness and fitting that into the overall view of whether it can win a race is of course subjective. However, it has served me well over the years and with this blog I can share my views on my days at the races.
You can contact me via Twitter or at adamski100@hotmail.com.