Is Fox's Tucker Carlson Destined To Dominate Cable News?

Once upon a time, a man named Bill O'Reilly ruled cable news, with nightly ratings that seemed invincible. When a sexual harassment scandal forced Fox News to kill off its top-rated show, many wondered if any show at the network would ever attract an audience like The O'Reilly Factor. As it turns out, Fox didn't have just one host ready to match O'Reilly's ratings, it had two: Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson.

Hannity, whose roots in talk radio make him perfectly comfortable setting the political agenda each night at 9 p.m., has seamlessly filled the void left behind by O'Reilly. Hannity's access to President Trump has led to high profile one-on-ones, most recently just last night. While Nielsen ratings for Thursday night won't be available until later today, the interviews often attract big audiences. Hannity drew 4 million viewers for his exclusive one-on-one with Trump immediately following the joint news conference in Finland with Russian president Vladimir Putin--and generated and plenty of media coverage, for everything from Hannity's rumored influence over the president to his tendency to be a big tipper overseas.

For the year to date, Hannity is averaging 3.3 million viewers a night, making its host the most-watched host on cable news, the title O'Reilly held for most of his two decades in prime time. Hannity is also the most-watched man on all of cable TV, just ahead of WWE wrestling on USA, which has a year-to-date audience of just over 3 million viewers.

MSNBC's star prime time host Rachel Maddow is third on that list, with a year-to-date average of 2.9 million viewers--but Maddow's in a tight race with FNC's Tucker Carlson, whose Tucker Carlson Tonight has a year-to-date average audience of 2.8 million viewers.

According to ratings data compiled by Nielsen, Carlson has established himself as one of Fox News Channel's most valuable--and consistent--ratings performers. What makes that all the more impressive is that Tucker Carlson Tonight launched less than two years ago. The show debuted in November 2016, and by the end of December Carlson had increased ratings in the 7 p.m. hour by 25%--and was second only to O'Reilly among viewers 25-54, the demographic most coveted by advertisers. "In less than two months, Tucker has taken cable news by storm with his spirited interviews and consistently strong performance," Fox News executive chairman Rupert Murdoch said at the time. "Viewers have overwhelmingly responded to the show and we look forward to him being a part of Fox News’ powerful primetime line-up.”

By comparison, Hannity is a Fox News original, whose current show, Hannity, debuted in 2009. MSNBC's Maddow recently celebrated her tenth anniversary in prime time with a one-week run at number one--and The Rachel Maddow Show's highest weekly ratings ever. But as this week began, Maddow was outpaced not just by Hannity, but also Carlson. On Monday night, Hannity's total audience was up (to 3.577 million), while Maddow's was down (to just under 3 million, at 2.989 million). Tucker Carlson Tonight drew a total audience of 3.1 million.

On Tuesday, Maddow's news-making interview with Hillary Clinton pushed her show into a tight race for first place, falling narrowly behind Hannity, 3.5 million vs 3.3 million, respectively. But Tuesday was the second night in a row that Carlson beat Maddow among viewers 25-54 (627,000 viewers, compared to Maddow's 595,000). Hannity was first on the night, with 669,000.

Mark Joyella has worked in cable news at CNN and Fox, and as a news anchor and reporter at TV stations in New York City, Miami, Tampa and Orlando; follow Mark on Twitter @standupkid