Mutually Assured Destruction

I should give you fair warning that I am about to go on one of my weird rants about Global politics. But I do promise to somehow swing this back to a relevant New Jersey angle.

Francis Fukuyama argues in “The End of History” that after The Cold War, there will no longer be an out-sized clash of ideologies. As a matter of necessity, economic liberalism will come to define relations amongst all nations. However, Charles Kupchan of Georgetown University argues that it’s not that simple. Nations competing for dwindling resources could eventually lead to new potential conflicts. In fact, at some point the United States will no longer be the world’s sole superpower, and we will return to a multi-polar world. We are currently witnessing the rise of China ( which is the obvious example ). But what is less obvious is Europe. Should the European Union get it’s act together ( and there are doubts it ever will ) their interests may not always align with those of the United States.

If the EU becomes a competing superpower, all it would take is a severe economic dispute with the US, and we could have a very serious problem on our hands. Germany after all, tried to take over the world twice ( and failed ). But it’s like they have finally figured out how to control Europe…this time through economic hegemony, rather than with tanks along the Champs Elysees. Make no mistake that Germany is sitting quite securely in the driver’s seat as the EU transforms and evolves. But don’t worry, I’m sure members of the Obama Administration are up at night preoccupied with mapping out potential doosmday scenarios just like me. ( not really ).

Ah, the cold war was a simpler time, wasn’t it? The US controlled it’s sphere of influence, and the Soviets controlled theirs. The nations skirmished through intermediaries in Africa and Latin America but never went to war head on. Too much was at stake.

And that brings me to the Norcross/Adubato/Christie alliance. We have seen some flair-ups but for the most part the big three have avoided all out war. If that unravels, the agenda Christie is pushing flatlines. Nothing gets done and nobody wins. But as long as these guys keep their eye on the ball…even the minor skirmishes can be contained before they spiral out of control.

Whether it has been the tool kit, the Governor’s SCONJ nominee, the Schundler Subpoenas, the millionaire’s tax or any number of other minor dust-ups…the powers that be have determined that it’s not worth destroying the core alliance. I wonder how sustainable that is over the long term because as we have seen throughout history alliances rise and fall but often degenerate into full scale global conflict.