France real estate prices: a quiet start in 2019

Although housing prices in France’s largest cities are still on the rise, the national average is hampered by price decreases in the rest of the country.

Focusing on Paris and France’s largest cities, we often forget about the price stability apparent in France’s many provincial regions. Admittedly, the real estate price index (IPI) of housing for the ten largest cities in France is still rising by 0.3%, ”but if we refine the observation, we see that prices are falling in 53 departments out of 94,” says Thomas Lefebvre, Scientific Director of MeilleursAgents. On average, French property prices remain fixed at 3,349 euros per square meter for apartments and 1,895 euros per square meter for houses.

The effect of the gilets jaunes protests

The nationwide gilets jaunes protests are not helping real estate prices. According to MeilleursAgents, “protests and blockades have led to a significant delay in property sales according to our partner agencies (property visits made difficult or impossible to get to, closings postponed…)”. The real estate website predicts that transaction volumes will certainly suffer from this situation. However, this does not mean that the real estate market as a whole will negatively be affected.

The most essential supporting factor in the French real estate market today, very low interest rates, still prevails. In addition, French banks typically start the year with high loan goals, making it easier to obtain a loan at the beginning of the year.

However, despite these attractive rates, MeilleurAgents’ forecasts for 2019 are mixed: “We expect a contained decrease in transaction volume (from -5 to -10% compared to 2018) and a slight increase in prices in Paris and major cities, in line with demand that is limited by current economic and social situations,” says Thomas Lefebvre. In France’s largest cities, the expected price increase in 2019 is 2 to 4%.

Where are Parisians going?

While Paris real estate prices are still rising (+0.3% in January 2019, and 5.2% over a year), the city is paradoxically losing inhabitants. It now costs on average 9,445 euros (but much more in some arrondissements) per meter square in Paris.

The first reflex of buyers, put off by these prices, is to migrate to the less expensive suburbs – the petite, even the grande couronne. These adjacent markets therefore indirectly benefit from the Parisian increases. Prices in les Haut-de-Seine, for example, increased by a further 0.3% in January (+2.2% year-on-year). From Seine-Saint-Denis to Essonne, including les Yvelines or Val-de-Marne, many departments posted a 0.2% increase over the month. The only exceptions are Val-d’Oise, down 0.2% in January (but up 2% year-on-year) and Seine-et-Marne, which remains stable (but up 1.5% year-on-year).

The attractiveness of provincial metropolises

More and more inhabitants are no longer choosing even the adjacent suburbs where the quality of life leaves something to be desired. Many former Ile-de-France residents opt to head farther away, to the most dynamic large cities elsewhere in France.These migrations, of course, have an impact on prices.Most noticeably in Bordeaux, where prices have calmed down after record increases (+17%) in 2017.Since then, prices have fallen 1.2% year-on-year (as of February 1st, 2019), while picking up again, with an increase of 0.5% in January 2019.The leading provincial cities today worth noting are Lyon (+1.1% and +8.9% over one year) and Nantes (+1% and +6% over one year). On the other hand, Nice (-0.6%), Strasbourg (-0.5%) and Montpellier (-0.4%) have begun the year on a decline.

A dedicated site providing free access to property sale prices over the last five years in France has just been updated by the French Ministry of Finance. A big change to the world of French real estate, the Demande de Valeur Fonciére website offers anyone the chance to access past real estate transactions for […]

It’s not news that property prices in Paris are on the rise, with the average price per square meter in more than half of Paris’ 20 arrondissements exceeding €10,000. It is interesting to note, however, that price disparities exist between the small boroughs located within each arrondissement. In this article, we zoom in on the […]

Since 1998, the annual Étude Clameur reviews the overall activity, price progressions, and supply and demand trends of France’s private rental market. Based on a sample pool of the leases signed over the previous year, the study analyzes market trends in 1,715 French cities with more than 10,000 residents. The 2019 edition draws a contrasting picture […]

Despite today’s current political and social climate, the luxury real estate market in Paris is breaking all records. Some Parisian properties are being sold in minutes flat, at prices that can exceed 20,000 euros per square meter. 2019 is shaping up to be a favorable year for real estate in Paris. Real estate professionals […]

It’s not news that property prices in Paris are on the rise, with the average price per square meter in more than half of Paris’ 20 arrondissements exceeding €10,000. It is interesting to note, however, that price disparities exist between the small boroughs located within each arrondissement. In this article, we zoom in on the […]

Paris is attracting more and more company headquarters, and will continue to do so thanks in large part to Brexit. In 2018, more than two million square meters of office space was purchased in the capital. The volume of office space sold in Île-de-France reached nearly 2.54 million square meters by the end of […]

A recent study on the impact of the Grand Paris metro expansion on more than twenty suburbs in the Île-de-France region shows prices are up more than 10% over the past year in about ten suburban cites that will benefit from the new metro lines. With 200 km of track and 68 new stations, […]

After a dynamic 2018 year, the French luxury real estate market continues its upward climb, benefitting more and more from the marked return of French citizens, non-residents, and Europeans from London. With their substantial buying power, these groups have contributed to price growth in the capital. It’s the new normal: the number of French […]

2018 was a record-breaking year for the Parisian real estate market, from all-time high prices to all-time low interest rates. But where exactly in the capital did the greatest changes take place? In which arrondissements did price growth increase the most in 2018, and where do they currently stand in terms of price per square […]

According to a study by MeilleursAgents, real estate prices have increased in almost all French seaside resort towns over the last twelve months, continuing a recovery that began two years ago. On the Atlantic coast, Lège-Cap-Ferret is both the most expensive city and the city where prices have increased the most (up 7.5% annually), […]