DODGERS: Kershaw's slow start not a concern

DODGERS: Kershaw's slow start not a concern

Dodgers pinch-hitter Justin Turner smiles as he circles the bases after hitting a two-run home run off Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Scott Oberg in the eighth inning on Sunday at Coors Field in Denver.

When you win three Cy Young Awards in a four-year span, become the first National League pitcher to also win the Most Valuable Player in 46 years and earn almost universal acclamation as the best pitcher in the game, a 4.26 ERA and one victory in seven starts will not do.

“I’m definitely not up to par for what I expect and what this team expects,” Kershaw said, his dissatisfaction evident after another start Sunday failed to live up to the standards he has set.

Kershaw’s mere-mortal performances this season have prompted questions about what might be wrong. Physically, he insists he feels fine – chafing at the subject even being raised – and nothing indicates otherwise. His velocity (93.2 mph on his fastball) for all of his pitches remains within decimal points of what it’s been his entire career and his 56 strikeouts lead the majors.

But the leading Kershaw-ologist, Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis, had heard the questions and the speculation so he sat down Saturday – “I had a lot of time yesterday with all the rain,” Ellis joked – and watched video of Kershaw’s first six starts last season and his first six starts this season. He studied all the advanced statistics available from the Dodgers’ sophisticated front-office analytics “just trying to see if there were any trends, anything that might be a little off.”

And what did all this deep analysis yield?

“Come to find out – he’s the same guy,” Ellis said. “Actually, statistically the hitters are not as successful against him as a year ago.

“It’s funny. You guys know. You’ve been watching him the last couple years. It’s coming.”

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly offered the same assurances.

“I don’t think anything’s any different with Clayton. Some years it doesn’t go the way you want it to,” Mattingly said. “Early on, it probably hasn’t gone the way he wants it to, in that respect. But there’ll be a point where it turns and it’ll be what it’s always been.”

It hasn’t been yet and, Ellis’ analysis aside, there are numbers that quantify that at least to some degree. A year ago, hitters batted .278 on balls in play (just about his career rate). This year, that average has jumped to .357. That change might be linked to another. According to Baseball Info Solutions standards, 35 percent of the balls put in play against Kershaw this year have been hit hard, up from 24 percent last year and a career rate of 24.7.

Perhaps not coincidentally, opposing batters are hitting .357 with runners in scoring position this season after rolling over at a .190 rate last year with nearly twice as many strikeouts (44) as hits (23) in those situations against Kershaw.

“I think you’re seeing the National League adjusting to him a little bit,” Ellis said. “You’re seeing guys being a lot more aggressive early in the count especially with runners in scoring position. Give them credit. They’re game-planning well. They’re scouting well. Balls are falling in right now.”

Some karma-balancing luck could be at work. It certainly seemed to be Sunday as Kershaw surrendered five runs in a fourth inning that featured just one hard-hit ball.

“I don’t really believe in luck. You either pitch good or you don’t,” Kershaw said to that. “There were hard-hit balls right at guys too. It evens out. It’s baseball. The broken-bat hits or ground-ball hits even out with the line-drive hits over time. It was just a tough day.”

Join the conversation

We invite you to use our commenting platform to engage in insightful
conversations about issues in our community. Although we do not pre-screen comments,
we reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful,
threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent
or otherwise objectionable to us, and to disclose any information necessary to satisfy the law,
regulation, or government request. We might permanently block any user who abuses these conditions.