Key Points The Coalition will work with our regional partners to address the secondary movement of asylum seekers into our region as a transit point to illegally enter Australia through the establishment of a comprehensive Regional Deterrence Framework.

Regional cooperation is an essential component of any package of measures to combat people smuggling. This has always been recognised, understood and practiced by the Coalition.

The Coalition's Regional Deterrence Framework will see:

â¢ $67 million provided to support joint operations with Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Malaysia to disrupt people smuggling and ramp up our intelligence gathering capacity, including the international deployment of additional specialist personnel from the Australian Federal Police;

â¢ implementation of a $20 million programme through the International Organisation for Migration (10M) to engage and enlist local villages within Indonesia to support our efforts to deter and disrupt people smuggling activity;

â¢ the appointment by the Prime Minister of a Operation Sovereign Borders Special Envoy to focus on facilitating operational cooperation within the region to implement the Regional Deterrence Framework;

â¢ investments of $27 million to P,revent drownings by increasing aerial surveillance and $71 million to boost the search and rescue response capability of the Indonesian authorities within their search and rescue zone;

â¢ subject to the agreement of our regional partners, transit ports established within the region in close proximity to airports to transfer asylum seekers to offshore processing facilities, preventing entry into Australia;

â¢ an expansion of offshore processing capacity at Manus and Nauru, including an additional 2,000 places on Nauru; and

â¢ ensuring that SIEV passengers who are not assessed as refugees are returned quickly to their source countries or detained until they can be.

The Coalition will restore Australia's regional cooperation focus on deterrence policies, both within the Bali process and our cooperative bi-lateral activity, in particular with Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

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Introduction

The Scale of the Problem Caused by Labor

Labor has failed on our borders like no other government in Australia's history.

Illegal arrivals by boat to Australia have increased from an average of just two people per month in the last five years of the former Coalition government to the current rate of more than 3,000 people per month.

The number of people in the immigration detention network or on bridging visas in the community who have arrived illegally by boat has increased from just four people in 2007 to more than 30,000 today.

More than 1,000 people have perished at sea after people smugglers' boats sank.

More than 6,000 children have had their lives put at risk by travelling on people smugglers' boats to Australia.

More than 14,500 desperate people have been denied a place under our offshore humanitarian programme because those places have been taken by people who have arrived illegally by boat. These people are genuine refugees, already processed by United Nations agencies, but they are denied a chance at resettlement by people who have money in their pocket to buy a place via people smugglers.

The annual cost to Australian taxpayers for managing illegal boat arrivals has increased from $85 million in 2007-08 to over $3 billion in 2013-14.

Between 2007-08 and 2013-14, the budget for managing illegal boat arrivals has blown-out by $11.6 billion.

This is real money that could have been spent on Australian schools, hospitals or improving our infrastructure.

Labor's border failure is the consequence of Labor's failed policies and failed resolve.

Labor weakened Australia's borders by abolishing the proven border protection policy regime established by the Howard Government and has provided an open invitation to people smugglers throughout their six years in office.

Labor has consistently demonstrated that they have neither the resolve nor the competence to combat people smuggling.

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Regional Cooperation to Combat People Smuggling

Reg ional cooperation is an essential component of any package of measures to combat people smuggling. This has always been recognised, understood and practiced by the Coalition.

The Coalition believes regional cooperation measures must serve as a supplement, rather than a replacement, for domestic action by countries within the region. A key part of any regional cooperation is to encourage individual countries to take measures that deter and punish people smugglers.

Unlike Labor, the Coalition believes that an effective regional solution must have a single minded focus on deterrence.

The vast majority of movement into and through the region is secondary movement of asylum seekers from South Asia and the Middle East engaged in what the UNHCR refers to as "forum shopping."

Asylum seekers, when heading to Austral ia on boats, have moved beyond the country of first asylum and are no longer directly fleeing their place of alleged persecution.

This is a significant difference from the experience of the Indochinese refugee crisis three decades ago. This difference has implications for the applicability of models that were used to address previous refugee crises, such as the Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The current regional problem with irregular people movement is imported - it is not regionally sourced.

The movement of persons is coordinated by criminal organisations that have built a sophisticated network and presence in origin, transit and destination countries. Their business is based on their ability to move people between countries, confounding immigration controls through fraud, sympathetic visa conditions, weak border patrols, lack of enforcement and/or the corruption of officials.

To stop the boats coming to Australia, it's necessary to work upstream to stop the planes coming into the region and disrupt people's movements through the region. If you can stop the planes, you can stop the boats.

Once the smugglers place their passengers on the boat to Australia, all of Australia's available deterrence measures become more dangerous and more expensive.

That is why the Coalition's Operation Sovereign Borders prioritises deterrence to entering the region from source countries and the disruption of movement throughout the region as well as action on our northern seas.

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The Bali Process

In 2002, the Howard Government had a similar view and established the Bali Process, providing a platform for regional co-operation and enlisting our most important partner, Indonesia, in this task as co-chair.

The Bali Process brought together source, transit and destination countries, refugee Convention signatories and non- signatories alike, from our region and beyond in the only serious non-UNHCR forum to deal with people smuggling issues.

The forum is non-binding. Members do not attract protection obligations through their participation. From 2002 to 2009, the Bali Process focused on a deterrence agenda that included:

â¢ increased information and intelligence sharing;

â¢ improving cooperation between law enforcement agencies;

â¢ establishing laws within the region to criminalise people smuggling activity;

â¢ deterring would be clients of people smugglers by warning of the dangers;

â¢ increasing the opportunities for returns; and

â¢ working together to better verify the identity of illegal immigrants.

Under Labor's stewardship, the Bali Process has shifted to processing asylum seekers coming into the region rather than deterring their arrival in the first place.

Under Labor, regularising movement through increased and speedier processing of asylum seeker claims, the harmonisation of such processes and larger refugee intakes from destination countries, have taken precedence over the deterrence agenda.

The Coalition believes that Labor's focus on processing and resettlement over deterrence and border security creates a regional asylum magnet that only further encourages secondary movement and undermines the integrity of existing regional resettlement programmes.

While proponents of the new Regional Cooperation Framework warned of the need to avoid creating pull factors, in redirecting the focus away from deterrence this is exactly what Labor's approach has perversely achieved, especially while the smuggling trade is so rampant.

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Fortunately, Labor's regional agenda has gained little practical support from other Bali Process members. The response of regional partners is polite, but an examination of the Bali Process work programme reveals a continued appetite amongst the countries for the original objectives of border security and deterrence.

The formation of a new Regional Support Office is a welcome initiative and is focused on getting work done rather than setting up another multilateral bureaucracy. If it ever develops these tendencies a Coalition Government would withdraw support immediately.

Current Regional Support Office projects include securing better arrangements to enable failed asylum seekers to be returned and greater cooperation on bio-metric identification and information sharing to combat identity fraud.

Technical expert groups also continue their work on immigration intelligence analysis, better understanding the movements into and within the region and examining inter­ jurisdictional legal issues. As a result of the Bali Process, people smuggling is now a crime in both Indonesia and Malaysia.

Some progress has been made clarifying regional responsibilities for maritime search and rescue. However, the capacity of individual countries to act on those responsibilities remains a significant weakness that is directly contributing to avoidable tragedies at sea.

Training initiatives to improve the skills of border and immigration officers throughout the region and co-operation between law enforcement authorities are also prominent through the involvement of senior officers.

While much of the operational elements of the law enforcement activities occur outside the forums of the Bali process, the participation of the partners in those operations is a function of their involvement in the Bali Process.

In particular, there is an excellent relationship between Australian and Indonesian law enforcement authorities built up in counter terrorism operations following the 2002 Bali Bombings. This has led to some success with disrupting people smuggling operations within Indonesia. However, the scale of operations is well below what could be achieved with a more serious commitment from the Australian Government.

Recently, Labor reduced our Australian Federal Police (AFP) presence dedicated to people smuggling in Indonesia by 40 per cent and the future of special operations funding to support joint efforts is plagued by uncertainty and lack of long range commitment. This is equally true in countries like Sri Lanka where there is just one Australian Federal Police officer to perform all related duties across the entire country.

The efforts being undertaken in the region are positive. However, there is an urgent need to upscale the level of activity. Australia has the most at stake and needs to provide stronger leadership and increased funding support to make it happen.

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A higher level of operational engagement is also needed throughout the region. Our focus must get beyond the diplomatic talk and focus on the practical, so we can influence what actually gets done. This means Australia must spend our time and resources on practical regional priorities and projects, rather than fostering global aspirations.

The Coalition's Commitment to Border Protection

The Coalition has a clear and consistent policy commitment to border protection.

It was Prime Minister John Howard who declared that "we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come." This was a statement of national sovereignty which underlined the need for Australia to control our borders.

A Coalition Government will restore real policies that live up to this declaration: This is our country and we will decide who comes here.

To do otherwise puts peoples' lives at risk, disregards the safety and morale of our border protection forces, shows contempt for taxpayer money and effectively sells out our immigration regime to the people smugglers.

Australians deserve a government that will take control of our borders and restore faith in our immigration system, including our generous humanitarian intake.

For years, the Coalition has advocated a strong and consistent policy stance that focuses single-mindedly on deterrence. These policies are well known and include:

â¢ restoration of Temporary Protection Visas (TPVs) for those found to be refugees - These vi sas deny access to family reunions and provide the opportunity to revisit people's refugee status when conditions in their home country change - this policy denies permanent residency and citizenship, therefore establishing a product for people smugglers to sell;

â¢ establishing genuine and rigorous third country offshore processing on Nauru and Manus Island - Offshore processing is consistent with our cu rrent laws and ensures resettlement in Australia is not guaranteed;

â¢ instructing the Border Protection Command to turn back boats where it is safe to do so- Where possible, we will also provide support to source and transit countries, in particular Sri Lanka and Indonesia, to intercept vessels departing their shores;

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â¢ denying refugee status for those who are reasonably believed to have deliberately discarded or destroyed their identity documentation- Unlike Labor's weak proposal to put these people at the back of the queue, under a Coalition government , they won't even make the queue-we will refuse to

process them; and

â¢ the establishment of Operation Sovereign Borders, bringing together fifteen departments and agen~ies under a single operational command as part of a joint task force led by a three star military officer nominated by the Chief of the Defence Force to implement the Coalition's border protection policies.

These measures are intended to provide the maximum deterrence to people smugglers by denying them a product to sell to often vulnerable people.

The Coalition will restore Australia's regional cooperation focus on deterrence policies, both within the Bali process and our cooperative bi lateral activity, in particular with Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

We will also keep the Bali Process and our broader regional cooperation truly regional, ensuring it continues to play a central role, along with our other clear and proven policies.

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The Plan

The Coalition will implement a comprehensive Regional Deterrence Framework to combat people smuggling, in partnership with countries in our region, comprising four key components:

â¢ disruption and deterrence measures with regional partners and source countries to prevent people smugglers facilitating people to enter and move through the region to illegally enter Australia;

â¢ detection and interception of SIEVs and safe transfer of passengers to external locations within the region;

â¢ off shore detention of all SIEV passengers and processing of their claims to determine refugee status; and

â¢ rapid return of SIEV passengers to their origin country or for those with refugee status resettlement in a third country other than Australia, wherever possible.

The Coalition will develop and implement cooperative plans with key regional partners to give effect to this framework including Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Papua New Guinea, and Nauru.

This will be achieved through our participation in the Bali Process, working in close partnership with Indonesia as co-chair, and other multilateral fora and bilateral arrangements as appropriate.

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The measures will be implemented as part of Operation Sovereign Borders through the Joint Taskforce previously announced by the Coalition.

Additional measures to be implemented as part of the Regional Deterrence Framework are noted below.

The Coalition will provide renewed funding to support special operations and seek to deploy personnel from the Australian Federal Police to Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Malaysia to conduct increased joint operations and intelligence gathering activities to disrupt the operations of people smugglers.

We will work with the Indonesian Government to deploy additional specialist staff from the Australian Federal Police to Indonesia. The additional staff will work with the Indonesian National Police to improve collaboration, information sharing and cooperative action on people smuggling. We expect the additional staff will:

â¢ undertake operations, in cooperation with the Indonesian National Police, to disrupt the preparation and staging of people smuggling ventures, particularly pre-departure boat ventures;

â¢ assist the Indonesian National Police with the prosecution of people smugglers and affiliates of people smugglers, such as local organisers; and

â¢ facilitate greater information exchange and coordination on people smuggling operations between Australia and Indonesia.

Additional specialist staff from the Australian Federal Police will be deployed to Sri Lanka and will undertake the same responsibilities and duties as the staff deployed to Indonesia.

We will also seek to deploy Australian Federal Police specialist staff to Malaysia with the principal task of detecting irregular people movements through Malaysia transiting to Indonesia via plane or ferry.

The Coalition will make resources available within the Australian Federal Police in Australia to support the work of the staff deployed to Indonesia, Sir Lanka and Malaysia.

This is a substantial commitment to improving regional intelligence and policing.

The Coalition will invest $67 million in this initiative over four years.

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b. Engage with local communities in Indonesia

The Coalition will work with the Indonesia Government and the International Organisation for Migration (10M) to implement a $20 million Indonesian community engagement programme to upscale engagement with local communities as part of our joint efforts to disrupt people smuggling operations at the local community level.

Effective disruption of people smuggling operations depends on local community support, intelligence and initiative. ·

The Indonesian community engagement programme will include:

â¢ communications campaigns to raise awareness within local villages that people smuggling is a criminal activity;

â¢ a capped boat buy-back scheme that will provide an incentive for owners of decrepit and dangerously unsafe boats to sell their boats to government officials rather than people smugglers;

â¢ support for wardens in local communities. These officers will be respected local community members who will be paid a stipend and supplied with communications equipment. Their role will be to provide intelligence information to the Indonesian National Police on people smuggling operations. They will enhance intelligence capabilities by acting as the 'eyes and ears' on the ground and could provide the wide-ranging local intelligence network necessary to effectively disrupt people smuggling operations; and

â¢ the option in exceptional circumstances for bounty payments for the provision of information resulting in significant disruptions or arrests leading to convictions. This would be operated by Indonesian authorities working with IOM and the Australian Federal Police.

The fundamental point of the Indonesian community engagement programme is to enhance the intelligence capabilities of law enforcement agencies, as well as to win over the hearts and minds of people in villages so that people smuggling operations can be better identified, reported and addressed.

The Indonesian community engagement programme will be implemented in up to 100 villages, will be managed by the International Organisation for Migration and will be based on the successful counter terrorism model established after the Bali bombing between the AFP and the INP.

The programme will be a long-term commitment to work with local villages.

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c. Tighten regional border controls and improve identity management

The Coalition will invest $37 million over four years to enhance people tracking technologies in the region.

We will work with countries in the region and airlines to apply Airline passenger name record data using Advanced Passenger Information (API) or Advanced Passenger Processing (APP) methodologies for early identification of high risk air travellers, either at points of departure from source countries or at arrival in transit countries.

We will accelerate work through the Bali Process Regional Support Office for biometric data collected for passengers intercepted on boats bound for Australia to be matched with Indonesian and Malaysian biometric data holdings and other biometric data holdings. Biometric data collection will assist in establishing the identity of individuals, validate their protection claims, determine the extent to which a valid undocumented case is justified and identify watch list matches.

The Coalition will provide advanced document examination equipment, software and associated training to Indonesia to assist in identifying fake travel documents and provide greater confidence in validating the identity of arrivals.

Applying a combination of technology and border management know-how will provide substantial opportunities to disrupt irregular people movements into transit countries.

The Coalition will not accept a protection claim from any arrival for whom the absence of travel documentation is not clearly justified and will suggest a similar approach be taken by offshore processing centres.

The widespread practice of disposal or more likely collection of asylum seeker travel documents by people smugglers raises the spectre of the use of such documents for identity fraud. Biometric matching and more sophisticated document examination will provide important tools in fighting identity fraud.

This measure will provide major benefits in disrupting people smuggling operations and will also offer significant broader benefits in fighting transnational crime in the region.

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d. Appoint a Special Operation Sovereign Borders Envoy to drive regional implementation and cooperation at the operational level

The Coalition will appoint a Special Envoy to represent Operation Sovereign Borders (OSB) and provide a dedicated high level representative for the Australian Government on issues relating to the operation within the region. The Envoy will be appointed by the Prime Minister and report to the Minister responsible for Operation Sovereign Borders.

The immediate priority for this position will be to work closely with the Indonesian government and other governments in the region to rapidly advance the operational elements of the Regional Deterrence Framework. It will provide the point of coordination for offshore regional implementation activity for Operation Sovereign Borders across the

region and work closely with the Minister responsible and Commander of the Operation Sovereign Borders Taskforce.

The Coalition will invest $27 million to increase air surveillance and seek to invest $71 million to boost Indonesia's search and rescue response capacity by providing

additional search and rescue vessels, along with support, maintenance and crew training for Indonesian authorities.

These practical commitments will assist Indonesia with their commitments to provide a search and rescue response capability within their search and rescue zone.

Illegal boats currently seek to be intercepted and transferred to Christmas Island. In some cases, search and rescue incidents are fabricated to ensure asylum seekers are collected and transferred to Christmas Island by Navy or Customs vessels.

The range of measures that will be implemented by the Coalition will be complemented by increased maritime surveillance and improved search and rescue capacity.

The Coalition will enhance surveillance and search and rescue capacity by:

Under the Coal ition, search and rescue and border surveillance activity will be closely coordinated with the Australian Maritime Security Operations Centre (AMSOC) within Border Protection Command. AMSOC will be the key surveillance hub and intelligence fusion point to ensure the optimal deployment of all available assets and maintain close operational collaboration with Indonesia. Resources from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre staff and functions will be deployed into AMSOC to maximise coordination of effort.

A Coalition government would move urgently to offer to negotiate · with Indonesia Australian assistance with a new rapid response search and rescue capability on the south Java coast through the provision of fast transfer vessels, with appropriately trained crew and on board security. This boost would assist the Indonesian search and rescue authority 'Basarnas' to meet its obligations in the Indonesian search and rescue zone.

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The Coalition will substantially increase surveillance for early detection of boats, strengthen interception resources and turn boats around where it is safe to do so.

b. Interception and transfer of asylum seekers

The Coalition would propose working with Indonesia to establish agreed transit ports within the region in close proximity to airports with asylum seeker transit facilities. Fast transfer vessels would take SIEV passengers directly to these transit ports.

Increased surveillance will enable earlier detection of asylum seeker boats in international waters. Navy and Customs vessels will be used for interception of boats­ providing warnings of turnaround in international waters, taking control of boats as soon as they enter the contiguous zone and turning Indonesian flagged and crewed boats back to Indonesian waters if it is safe to do so.

Where passengers are to be subject to offshore processing, subject to negotiation and agreement with Indonesia, a fleet of fa~t transfer vessels could be commercially leased to take asylum seekers directly from the SIEV to the nearest authorised transit port for charter air transfer directly to Manus or Nauru for processing of their asylum claims. These vessels would include security staff. 'Fit to fly' medical checks will occur on the transit vessel or at a facility at the transit port. Navy and Customs vessels will no longer

provide taxi services for SIEV passengers.

Operational directions will be provided by Border Protection Command on arrangements for boat turnarounds with decisions on turn backs to be made on a case by case basis in accordance with the operational protocols established for Relex II and the chain of command.

The Commander of the Operation Sovereign Borders Joint Agency Taskforce will refer requests for additional naval assets directly to the Operation Sovereign Borders Reference Group for rapid consideration by the Chief of the Defence Force.

This new approach to interception and transfer would mean that Christmas Island will no longer be used as a default reception point for SIEV arrivals as it is the intention that wherever it can be prevented, SIEVs will not enter Australian waters. Christmas Island will continue to play a key role as a detention and removal centre for the existing legacy caseload of 30,000 asylum seekers currently in Australia.

These new interception and transfer arrangements will have a cost of $198 million over the forward estimates.

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3. Offshore Detention and Assessment

a. Increasing offshore processing capacity

The Coalition will work with existing contracted service providers to rapidly expand off shore processing capacity at Manus and Nauru. This expansion will include providing an additional 2000 places on Nauru within the first two months of coming to Government.

Works will proceed in parallel for three types of accommodation: non-flammable tents, flat pack fast track units and longer term facilities. These works result in additional accommodation coming on stream progressively, tents first, then flat pack and finally longer term accommodation.

As flat pack accommodation comes on line, tents will be retired and used as contingency accommodation for further arrivals. Longer term accommodation will be built in locations to provide ongoing benefits to the Papua New Guinea and Nauruan Governments and people.

The Minister and Special Envoy will lead discussions with other countries in the region to establish other additional processing centre locations ..

The costs for additional processing capacity will be met in full from existing budget allocations including the reassignment of $58 million allocated by the Labor Government for a new detention centre in Singleton on mainland Australia.

b. Harmonise assessment in offshore processing centres

There is no single assessment process prescribed by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees although a set of Guidelines exists. The assessment processes adopted are sovereign decisions for the Papua New Guinea and Nauruan Governments.

A Coalition government will work with these governments to assist and advise on the establishment of assessment processes and provide training to local assessing staff.

Under the Coalition, offshore processing capacity will be rapidly increased and established to appropriate standards to support the immediate transfer of all SIEV passengers to Nauru and Manus and if necessary further new processing centres.

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4. Increase Returns and Resettlement Options

a. Recruit new resettlement partners

SIEV passengers who are not assessed as refugees will be returned quickly to their source countries, or detained until they can be. Those determined to be refugees will be required to seek resettlement in a country other than Australia.

The Coalition will clarify with the Papua New Guinea Government the extent of resettlement realistically possible in that country.

At the same time wewill work with other countries both within and outside the region to establish agreements for resettlement of people found to be refugees. This will occur both bilaterally and through the Bali Process applying the principle of fair burden sharing across the region.

Australia has a strong record in resettling refugees and will provide temporary protection visas as a last resort for refugees assessed in offshore processing centres who cannot be placed in third countries.

Resettlement costs form part of the Department of Immigration and Citizenship budget allocations. Costs associated with Resettlement Agreements will be funded from existing budget allocations adjusted as necessary for changes to illegal boat arrival rates.

b. Facilitate returns and removals

Asylum seekers who are found not to be owed protection following offshore processing will be returned to their country of origin as quickly as possible.

â¢ establish and refine return agreements with origin countries including reintegration support where appropriate;

â¢ increase support for voluntary returns through the work of the International Organisation for Migration; and

â¢ establish air charter and security service contracts for returns from Papua New Guinea arid Nauru.

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To do otherwise puts peoples' lives at risk, disregards the safety and morale of our border protection forces, shows contempt for taxpayer money and effectively sells-out our immigration regime to the people smugglers.

Australians deserve a government that will take control of our borders and restore faith in our generous humanitarian intake.

The Choice

The choice is between an Australia under Labor which would continue to be a soft touch for the people smugglers and a Coalition government that will take the tough decisions to restore Australians' confidence that those who we accept as refugees are genuine.

Labor has failed on our borders like no other government in Australia's history.

Illegal arrivals by boat to Australia have increased from an average of just two people per month under the Howard Government to the current rate of more than 4,000 people per month.

Since Kevin Rudd abolished the Howard Government's strong and highly effective border control regime, more than 50,000 people have illegally entered Austra lia by boat.

The number of people in the immigration detention network or on bridging visas in the community who have arrived illegally by boat has increased from just four people in 2007 to almost 30,000 today.

More than 1,000 people have perished at sea after people smugglers' boats sank.

More than 6,000 children have had their lives put at risk by travelling on people smugglers' boats to Australia.

Labor weakened Australia's borders by abolishing the proven border protection policy regime established by the Howard Government and has provided an open invitation to people smugglers throughout their six years in office.

It was Prime Minister John Howard who declared that "we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come." This was a statement of national sovereignty and the need for Australia to control our borders.

A Coalition government will restore effective policies that live up to this declaration.

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To do otherwise puts people's lives at risk, disregards the safety and morale of our border protection forces, shows contempt for taxpayer money, and effectively sells-out our immigration regime to the people smugglers.

Australians deserve a government that will take control of our borders and restore faith in our immigration system, including our generous humanitarian intake.

Cost

The Regional Deterrence Framework represents a comprehensive set of measures that will cost around an additional $420 million to implement over the forward estimates period. These costs will be more than offset by the savings realised from the reduction in boat arrivals to be achieved by the implementation of these measures and other elements of the Coalition's comprehensive border protection policies already announced.

The Pre-Election and Fiscal Outlook estimates that, even relative to assumptions for the pace of illegal arrivals that appear highly optimistic on current trends, savings of over $1 billion would be realised by a faster than anticipated near-term decline to the long­

term average pace of 370 per month.

The Coalition anticipates that boat arrivals will substantially reduce well below that pace as a result of the implementation of the full suite of the Coalition's border protection policies. Under the Howard Government boat arrivals reduced to an average of just two people per month.