Archives for 2013

Thank you, Politico (the Magazine), for taking a look back at various predictions for 2013 to see how they worked out.

In our “Folly of Prediction” podcast, we discussed how the incentives to predict are skewed. Big, bold predictions that turn out to be true are handsomely rewarded; but predictions that turn out to be false are usually forgotten. With the cost of being wrong so low, the incentives to predict are high.