Thursday, December 23, 2010

[Update 11:43AM: Best guess on squiggles is that the market is tracing (iv) of [v] in some kind of triangle or complex sideways combo. The red horizontal line is my marker as the next wave four, in this case (iv), usually maintains prices above the previous subwave four low, iv of (iii), as a general guideline. Hence the red line. For the SPX thats about 1254.]

[Update 11:33AM: I have two competing versions of the dollar at the moment. I am leaning toward a series of one's and two's. We'll keep both options open. There is actually not much difference. They both ultimately point up I suppose.

[Update 10:40AM: Total capitulation in sentiment to the trend. Latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey data. Charts courtesy of http://www.sentimentrader.com]

ORIGINAL POST
I have no clear count on the last up squiggles just yet. Best guess is a sideways wave (iv) of [v] (not shown).

Best guess for the dollar hasn't changed.

Sentiment Trader's http://www.sentimentrader.com/ sentiment indicators levels are 48% (bearish extremes - optimistic sentiment) to 0% (bullish extremes). Highest all year and the dumb/smart money spread hit 50%. There is really nothing to add as this high level of bullishness condition is persisting for the last few weeks.

It will correct as it always does. Its a matter of timing and what price pattern plays out when it does correct. Will we see heavy selling and impulsing down? Or, if this is a true bull market as most everyone says, will we see big corrective patterns and a more easy landing for prices?

[Update 11:43AM: Best guess on squiggles is that the market is tracing (iv) of [v] in some kind of triangle or complex sideways combo. The red horizontal line is my marker as the next wave four, in this case (iv), usually maintains prices above the previous subwave four low, iv of (iii), as a general guideline. Hence the red line. For the SPX thats about 1254.]

[Update 11:33AM: I have two competing versions of the dollar at the moment. I am leaning toward a series of one's and two's. We'll keep both options open. There is actually not much difference. They both ultimately point up I suppose.

[Update 10:40AM: Total capitulation in sentiment to the trend. Latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey data. Charts courtesy of http://www.sentimentrader.com]

ORIGINAL POST
I have no clear count on the last up squiggles just yet. Best guess is a sideways wave (iv) of [v] (not shown).

Best guess for the dollar hasn't changed.

Sentiment Trader's http://www.sentimentrader.com/ sentiment indicators levels are 48% (bearish extremes - optimistic sentiment) to 0% (bullish extremes). Highest all year and the dumb/smart money spread hit 50%. There is really nothing to add as this high level of bullishness condition is persisting for the last few weeks.

It will correct as it always does. Its a matter of timing and what price pattern plays out when it does correct. Will we see heavy selling and impulsing down? Or, if this is a true bull market as most everyone says, will we see big corrective patterns and a more easy landing for prices?

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I like to chart and I am an avid student of Elliott Wave Theory. I combine wave theory with standard technical analysis to track market movements and predict future movements.
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