Thornburg is not far removed from being a legitimate bullpen asset at the back-end of the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen, but he is also not far removed from thoracic outlet syndrome, an injury he suffered from in 2017.

Underlying Positives

When looking at Thornburg, he may look like damaged goods. However, the components that made him as elite as he was a few years back still remain with him in 2019.

Just take a look at his Baseball Savant statistics to see the foundation of a top-tier reliever:

His spin rates on both his curve and fastball are amongst the best in the game and in May of this year, he held a 23.3 swinging strike rate on his fastball in particular, per Brooks Baseball. He has one genuine plus pitch in his curveball, but also possesses another with potential to be fantastic:

And! He’s pretty much Josh Fields w/ an elite curveball (at least a curveball w/ the makeup of being elite) and elite FB spin rate. There is no way he isn’t a Dodger lol pic.twitter.com/XHLa88a0p2

Thornburg is second in all of baseball this season in vertical (rising) fastball movement. That is beyond impressive and would bode well with the Dodgers’ typical plan of attacking pitchers up in the zone. There is a non-zero chance that the Red Sox simply did not know how best to utilize Thornburg and fully harness his repertoire.

Here might be the issue as well:

He is throwing his fastball dead-center. That is a quick fix with the Dodgers’ philosophy.

Thornburg’s History

When the Red Sox traded Travis Shaw, then top-prospect Mauricio Dubon, and more to the Milwaukee Brewers for Thornburg in 2016, Boston was expecting to receive an up-and-coming closer-of-the-future type of pitcher. They simply did not. After his major 2017 surgery, he has not shown the same makings.

For the Milwaukee Brewers from 2013-2016, Thornburg held a 2.69 ERA and struck out 200 batters in 197 2/3 innings. In 2018 and 2019 combined, he has posted a 6.54 ERA and has struck out basically a batter per inning across 42 2/3 innings. Yeah, that is a substantial difference, but the fact that Thornburg was utilized incorrectly, the concept that the Boston Red Sox are not as cutting-edge of an organization as the Los Angeles Dodgers when it comes to reclamation projects, and the fact that he still possesses absolutely filthy stuff makes for a good bet to turn it around.

Thoracic Outlet Syndrome

For more information regarding thoracic outlet syndrome and the surgery required to repair it, just see Julio Urías for a success story. You can make a legitimate argument that El Culichi has better stuff than he did before. On the other hand, there are those who were ‘never the same’ like Johan Santana, the former Cy Young pitcher of the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins. Thornburg looks like the latter at this point, but could easily have his story look more like the former if the Dodgers can simply get their hands on him via a minor league contract.

Expectations

These types of pitchers are the ideal reclamation projects that Andrew Friedman and the rest of the Dodgers’ front office braintrust look for.

In no way is Thornburg the current answer to the bullpen issue, but it does not hurt to try to turn him into exactly that on a simple minor league deal. This is the type of low-risk, high-reward move that clubs salivate over and it would not surprise me at all if the Dodgers are licking their chops at the potential of bringing a guy like this into their organization. It was not long ago that Brandon Morrow was a similar injury-prone reclamation project and became the Dodgers’ best reliever across the 2017 season. Yes, Thornburg is a guy that has that kind of ceiling.

Overall

This is what Brooks Baseball has to say regarding his repertoire for a final look:

His four-seam fastball has good rising action, results in more fly balls compared to other pitchers’ four-seamers, has essentially average velocity and has slightly less natural movement than typical. His curve has an exceptional bite. His change generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ changeups, has a lot of backspin and is slightly firmer than usual.

Lots of positive verbiage there. Just imagine what Rick Honeycutt and the other members of the pitching reformation team could do for a guy with a foundation like Thornburg — there is a chance he becomes a success story rather than another injury statistic.