SPX W WC 10 Nov 2014

Well we did not make the W234MLU last week so we should get there this week, or latest next. This will complete D1, and then we can expect a consolidation which currently is expected to reach W234ML around Christmas retesting the 2000 area, before making new ATH in January

31 Responses to SPX W WC 10 Nov 2014

Hi Marc.
It’s getting interesting now with “good chance D1 is in”.
OEW is also showing inflection point here with corrective vs. impulsive pattern to be resolved, likely on next turn.
MAP process seemed to provide early warning signal based on violation of the d234MLL lower parallels and now takeout of c4.
Seems like it’s time to plot the 1-2-3 triangle and associated parallels to project D2 as shown in MAP Waves 6 – Putting Lines to Pivots.
Connect Sept high to Nov high. Draw parallel of this from Oct low. Then draw parallel of Sept high to Oct low from Nov high to get target for D2.
Then begin tracking price relative to these trend lines.
Is this correct? If so, may be nice to put it on the chart as a daily update.
Otherwise identify other techniques and or targets used to track this potential trend change.

I am going to change the update stuff as it is misleading and very time consuming!
We will track waves down to centi and as next bigger wave scale changes just update that – thereby drilling down you should have the wave count at whatever level you want and that way less clutter as irrelevant lines on that scale will be thin so that scale plus one up as you need that for target.

Nearly week end so will get started so that hopefully by Mon up and running – that way we can keep discussion to wave scales which will be better for understanding hows and whys etc?

Target fo D2 will be shown explained but basically if this is the top (weekly and daily intervals don’t look right yet!) – I really should do a piece on changing amplitude when trend reverse because that is how it is tracked! Give me till Sunday night so I can get something down to explain! what is clear so far is that it really needs to be written down formally in a coherent understandable fashion! Still got too much only in my head!

Reason Daily and Weekly interval dont look right is because some idiot (not to name names by me!!!!!) forgot W234……. and high hit MLU so turn is correct – D1 is extreme wave and D2 low mid 1900’s which will be next months low!
Then wave 3 should be pretty explosive!

I may be missing something, but don’t see how W234 MLU was hit.
Don’t have good way to draw exact channel on my charts, but visually looks like it fell short.
Also wondering why not D2 retrace to around 1850?
This is what I get using your 1-2-3 triangle method with parallels as shown in MAP Waves 6 – Putting Lines to Pivots.
Lower parallel would trace to about 27 points higher than 1821 low, approximately 1 month out in mid-Dec.
Look forward to your update Sunday night to clarify rationale and criteria for these waves.
Hope you have a great weekend!

Ok thanks, that makes a lot more sense.
Now begs question that maybe W123 ML becomes next support target, since it seems to be containing the uptrend so far.
Did a rough slope calculation that gives this ML somewhere around 1860 currently, with about 3.7 points/week and rising.
This puts MAP more in line with what I believe OEW is projecting, fairly significant pullback coming soon with possible DT confirmation in Dec.

A break of W234ML will confirm this as M3 (OEW alternative count of PIII not being in yet). The pull back then would go to M123ML, not W123ML, which would be about mid to low 1700’s – aint gonna happen! there is no technical reason for that. 1903 is next years first support.

An OEW DT will as usual produce confirmation of a smaller fractal – i.e. in this case we are in W wave hence D1 will be confirmed with Dec DT and new UT confirmation will confirm D2 in January. OEW trend confirmations just work like that which I have been saying for ages! Try plotting them – I have not – but just by feeling get that message. It fits in well with wave pattern recognition but will put more together on that because you can tell alot from the bars in regards what levels to watch which BTW on the new format that is how the green and red SR lines are derived – patterns recognition! But it is pattern recognition within MAP Wave rules so is system based.

Roget that! Last rally ran into resistance at the 2nd parallel from d234MLL and then went to lower lows.
This is what I’ve been trying to say on my last few posts about the count.
Flattening of the d5 uptrend has been methodically breaching each of the parallel support lines.
Now the question is,….will 1821 hold and we get D2, or is this whole thing going to be W5 (i.e. break below 1821)?
Next stop is d4 = 2001.

Peoples behaviour is useful here (the lines are just a price / time matrix of that)

D2 should be on the SP of W234 MLU to D1.

In regards FIB relationships normally the 100% relationship work… but you need to use different pivot scales – retrace is normally one wave scale smaller – why? people put stops there, and when they break it drops to the next pivot.

General comment. Having some difficulty following these daily threads.
Need a consistent location and flow established for the daily updates and charts.
However, think these are excellent and an essential element for using MAP, just needs to be better integrated into the site.
Short term decisions (i.e. internal wave counts) need to be clarified, as I’ve tried to do with my last line of questioning.
Also need to show and update at least 3 wave scales on separate charts; daily, weekly and monthly.

Need to find a format that works – on many groups they have a weekly update with pages of stuff and nothing gets updated so you need to keep ploughing back and forward.
I though maybe best to do daily – which should fit in with weekly which should fit in with Monthly etc.

On reflection I think it may be better to follow the deci wave one at a time and update the bigger scale only when that changes – eg new trend channel or beware top / bottom near.

i.e the Daily projection was made a while ago and we are still in D1 so maybe a comment there – caution we are in deci 5 in addition to the discussion regarding that fork and its derivatives such as WL, channels etc.
Then on the deci scale have one for each wave and file it under the daily, and same thing regarding ML’s forks, WL etc only relating to that scale.

I think I will try it as then discussion pertains to a particular wave as opposed to multiple waves on the same chart??

SPX keeps going sideways with further flattening.
Got lower high and lower low today, first time since uptrend began.
Now looks like 2nd parallel has been breached (not sure correct terminology but guess its called WL-2)
d123ML still below d4, so that does not yet provide support.
Guess we can’t confirm D1 until d4 = 2001 is breached, but trend line support is breaking down (0-4d -> MLL -> WL-1 -> WL-2)
Is this early warning signal of confirmation or normal price behavior and just as likely to reverse to the upside?

Side ways mean consolidation whether in up or down trend – energy needs to be built up for next move.
A high above yesterdays confirms continuation of uptrend.
The way things are looking on D high end this / early next week

Thanks Marc! So you think higher is more likely then?
Based on what? Do we have incomplete count at lower level, i.e. c waves scale (GREEN)?
Looks like about 9 waves up from d4, so that gives c1-5 waves with one of these subdivided as m1-5.
However, not sure criteria for counting these smaller waves.
Using 7 point reversal as my smallest wave, get 9 waves up to recent high.
If filter out the 7 pointer, then maybe only 7 waves up with 2 more to go.

Yes Marc, know about subdivisions.
Looks like I can count 9 waves inside d5 of D1 using MAP wave rules.
However on your chart, you toss out the first wave as noise and only show c2 (GREEN)
c4 marked as uncertain as if not confirmed yet, so you show only 3 small waves so far.
Also you show dotted lines for each of the 9 reversals that I see without any wave labeling to confirm one way or the other.
Its not clear why you have this apparent discrepancy, i.e. possible 9 MAP waves with only 3 confirmed.
My point is, d234 channel trend lines are breaking down and possibility of completed count for d5 (9 MAP waves) seem to warn D1 may be near the end.

Looks like the 0-4d break-line was broken with todays sideways move, based on blue labeling (d2 and d4) shown on the chart.
Realize this is a very steep ascent, but doesn’t that portend possible D1 top?

“flattening” in this case is wave sub division. I have just posted D daily update – we are in wave µ3/m3/c3/d5/D1/W5/M3/Q5/Y5.
It has fallen out of d234MLL, and so WL-1 is next support, however it is above d123ML which has provided support. Also it is still above the D channel ML.
A low below 2038 would cause a change to count.

Generally when you get sideways it aint doing what you expect then it will do the opposite in a big way – not sure if you heard that one before. Wave count and forks support new ATH’s until the W234MLU, where D1 is expected this / next week! (hopefully this week as my 1340 calls expire on Friday!!!)

Agree WL-1 is next and looks like price is pressing right into it.
d123ML support? But that has very shallow slope (nearly flat) and currently below d4. However, could catch by end of the week or so.
Wouldn’t a breach below d4 confirm D1, or change count to c2/c4 (GREEN) and confirm as d1?
Sorry if this is too detailed, but trying to understand how MAP waves are confirmed.

1 OK next support shown in attached chart which would mover count as described.
2. d123ML is about the lowest we should get, which would make this c4 – correct.
3. D1 most likely due to the size of this uptrend off the lows.

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