NAND Supply to Outpace True Demand – SSD Prices Continue Free Fall

Pending Q4’15 actual shipments, we could see in increase closer to 40% for 2015 vs. 2014. Samsung alone could potentially post an impressive 50%+ increase last year to lead all suppliers. Unfortunately, NAND prices have tracked a super aggressive take down curve, which was great for SSD makers but difficult on NAND suppliers. Lower SSD prices resulted in a faster take up of SSDs in the commercial PC space. Looking ahead, NAND output is expected to grow another 30%+ this year and with declining tablet volumes and stalling smartphone sales, SSDs become the only remaining big growing market that can absorb large volumes of NAND. However, that probably means that NAND prices will remain extremely aggressive, resulting in SSD prices falling at a faster rate than last year. Ultimately, gains made by SSDs means losses for HDDs.