A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Chairman of LCRP since January 2013

Friday, April 27, 2012

You don't have to look far to know that there's a rift in the Republican Party right now. A lot, although not all, of the grass roots do not like Mitt Romney. A lot, although not all, of the establishment in the party support Romney. There's still hard feelings, and if SCOTUS and Eric Holder weren't going to be big issues, I'd be voting Libertarian for President this year. I'll probably hold my nose and take one for the team, but I'm going to be concentrating my actual campaign efforts on downticket and non partisan races this year. Our Senate nominee, 8th District stuff, judges, and county.

With the Romney campaign and their allies on Fox News getting their way, a lot of people are railing against "the establishment." There's actually multiple establishments. I'll admit that I sometimes use the term the establishment, but there is always one thing we need to keep in mind when it comes to actual GOP establishments. If there is a bad GOP establishment, in most cases who is to blame? Republican VOTERS. The establishment is there because voters allow it to be there. Most GOP establishment with the exception of caucus is either directly or indirectly elected.

Anyone who is complaining about the establishment needs to step up to the plate or they need to shut up. Marco Rubio said it best in 2010 when the establishment pushed RINO Charlie Crist. “If you are unhappy with the Republican establishment, then let’s get a new establishment.” Some think because the Tea Party was a big deal in 2010 that they automatically get what they want. It doesn't work that way. The Republican Party has a 160 year history. 3 years is a footnote in that history. 2 years is one election cycle. I've seen a lot of leaders come and go, and I've been involved in party politics as long as I've been a republican. 11 years active. State Party has had five chairs in that short amount of time. Livingston County GOP has had six chairs in that time. 8th District has had at least four that I know of.

This is how things work.

May - Filing deadline. Precinct Delegate candidates file to run for their position.

August - Primary elections. Precinct Delegate candidates run in the primary election. They are often, but not always unopposed.

What do precinct delegates do? A lot of people will say different things about a precinct delegate's responsibilities, but in reality there are two jobs for precinct delegates.

1. Pick the delegates to state conventions at your county conventions.

2. After November, select your county executive committee, which picks its officers.

That's it. There's a lot of other things precinct delegates SHOULD be doing, but those are the main responsibilities.

Different things happen at different state conventions. The next one elects RNC Committeeman/Committewoman (full convention) for and delegates (by district) for the National Convention that formally nominates Romney. I was not a Romney supporter in the primary, and he won the 8th district, so there's no chance I'd win even if I was running for that.

A future convention after August and before November nominates candidates for Supreme Court and the university trustees.

After the November election, we have county conventions for party leadership, as then a state convention for state party and district leadership.

The bottom is that here in Michigan, if we like, or dislike (or in some cases both) what state party, district party, or county party is doing, something can be done about it. If you don't like what I'm doing on 8th district and you're a district resident, you can and try and toss me off the committee. If you like what I'm doing, you can keep me on there. I'm biased, but I'm supporting incumbents for the 8th District if they choose to run again. I think we've come a long ways from what we started before the current leadership. We still have a ways to go to get to my standards, but it's moving in the right direction.

It takes organization, campaign ability, patience, and effort to get positions on committees and to do a good job on those committees. Those that don't have that and like to just sit around and bitch shouldn't be in charge or on committees anyway.

Folks that I support for delegates or committee positions are those who do the work, first and foremost. I don't vote based on your consultant ties, or even your presidential decision. While ideology is an issue to some degree, competence is a bigger one with me. Those who show up at meetings and more importantly do things are those who get my support. I actively vote against Johnny come lately types who because they have a title of some sort, think we should bow down to them because they think they are important.

The bottom line though is that most of the "establishment" is picked, indirectly, by Michigan Republican Primary voters. If you want to make changes to the party, it starts in May with filings, and August with elections. It's put up or shut up time for critics.

This district was held by the dems for 18 years until the 2010 election. It was close on several occasions, but Alpena leans democrat, more so locally than at the top of the ticket. I think Peter Petallia was forced to take one for the team here. I think this may be our 2nd toughest defense. I don't like what they did to this district at all. This is a toss-up district I think in 2012. I think the dems will likely get it back when Petallia is termed out if he hangs on for two more terms. I think McCain took the old district, but Obama took the new one. Dems are stronger downticket here than they are at the top of the ticket too, which makes it harder here.

The old district covered Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties. It picks up part of Cheboygan County (not bad), and Iosco County (Bad bad bad). It drops Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties (worse). Presque Isle and Alpena have rather strong downticket democrat leanings. Iosco County does as well. Alcona leans to the right, as does most of Cheboygan County. Dropping the three leaning GOP counties eliminates just about any breathing room whatsoever. Petallia actually won Alpena County in 2010, although he lost Presque Isle County, albeit barely. Winning Alpena County is big, and if he does that again in 2012, he'll survive this district. Petallia ran in 08 against a strong former 2 term rep in Andy Neumann. I included that race as well.

This district was and still is probably the safest in North Michigan for the Republicans, and the 2nd safest overall besides the Marquette district. The old district covered Charlevoix, Otsego, Antrim, and part of Cheboygan County. It drops Cheboygan County and picks up Montmorency and Oscoda Counties. I think this is a very poor district, possibly helping concede the 106th.

Otsego and Antrim Counties are base counties and carry the day. The rest of the areas if aren't safe republican, strongly lean that way. The only exception is against someone like a Bart Stupak.

Update 5-27-2012 - The leader and publisher of Right Michigan is challenging the incumbent. Jason Gillman is going after Wayne Schmidt. Gillman's also a county commissioner up there, so he's more than just an internet activist. This will be interesting to see.

This district shrunk due to population growth in Grand Traverse County. It drops Kalkaska County to the 103rd. This district is for now safe republican, but keep an eye on the suburbs of Traverse City to see if it is still the case in ten years with the transplants. The city leans democrat, although not as much as it's reputation (Ann Arbor North it isn't). It's not impossible for the GOP to win the city. The suburbs are generally safe for the GOP. McCain won the district, and nobody downticket has had problems here recently.

Update - 5-27-2012 - Did Rendon tick off people in Ogemaw County? Three challengers are from there, along with Grayling's Lon Johnson was placed in the new district from redistricting. I'm still calling this a tossup due to tradition, although I don't see that Sheltrown name this time.

Update 8-30-2012 - Rendon and Johnson won their primaries easily.

Old District (103rd)
Bruce Rendon - 19,930
Van Sheltrown - 11,958

I consider an 8000 vote spread against a Sheltrown an aberration. I know Van isn't Joel or Dale, but the dems were massacred in districts like the old 103rd in 2010. Bigtime. Redistricting changed this district a bit making it more friendly to Republicans, although I can't call it safe. It also may have conceded the 106th which I think is an absolutely awfully drawn district. I'd rather have had a district similar to the old 103rd which is tough but winnable since Joel and Dale Sheltrown are termed out. Joel and Dale dominated the district. Van was blasted. Either he didn't sell, or it was just a bad year. I think Joel would have survived a 2010.

Bruce Rendon ran in 2004 for the open seat and lost to Joel Sheltrown despite Bush winning the district by a good margin. There's no shame in that. The old district covered Iosco, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Missaukee Counties. Iosco, Roscommon, and Ogemaw are swing counties with slight "Barcia democrat" leanings. Missaukee County is the 2nd most Republican county in the state by percentage, except that it voted for Joel Sheltrown twice. The new district dropped Iosco county and replaced it with Crawford and Kalkaska counties which lean Republican but occasionally support Stupak type democrats. Kalkaska is a very rural area between Acme/Traverse City and Grayling. Crawford County, also very rural, is Grayling and Frederic and known for Camp Grayling and fishing/canoeing with the Au Sable River. The general area district (Ogemaw County area, not Crawford) was held by democrats for at least 18 years before Rendon finally won it. That's despite McCain winning the old district. Obama's numbers aren't the ceiling here. Barcia and Stupak run much better.

I included the 2004 numbers which was Rendon vs Joel Sheltrown. If the dems have another candidate on that level, they have a shot at this one in 2012. As such, I'm still considering this a swing district despite Kalkaska and Crawford Counties being better for downticket Republicans. There's a good dem base in Skidway Lake and St Helen, along with many other swing voters throughout the whole district.

This district shrunk slightly and split Osceola County, part of which went to the 97th district. This is one of the safest districts in North Michigan. Wexford County is a base GOP county, and Mecosta leans our way. Phil Potvin took the open seat in 2010 without much trouble in the general election. Even McCain won the district, and unlike the neighboring 103rd district, there hasn't been a history of Barcia type democrats winning here.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Update 5-27-2012 - Interesting matchup here. Scripps doesn't want a rematch, which makes things easier. Bailey was originally going to run against Benishek in CD-01, but didn't want to face McDowell in a primary, which is a smart move since he's a troll below the bridge. However, there's still a big geography matchup here. Bailey is from Leelanau County, and O'Shea from Manistee County. Fallout from that could help Franz. I'd still rate this a tossup. Nothing Up North comes easy.

Update 8-30-2012 - O'Shea won the primary narrowly. He lost Benzie and Leelanau counties to Bailey, but won Mason county and won big in Manistee County.

Old District (101st)
Ray Franz -19,386
Dan Scripps- 18,495

This district remains unchanged for the 2nd straight redistricting cycle and is a swing district that flipped twice in 08 and 2010. The district covers the Lake Michigan Coastline. Manistee, Mason, Benzie, and Leelanau Counties. All the counties can be competitive, with Manistee County the most democrat leaning with some union leanings. There's a bit of a Chicago influence on the coast itself here, particularly Ludington and Leelanau County. Leelanau County has been treading democrat lately as well, I suspect from Ann Arbor/Chicago retirees and some overlap from Traverse City yuppies. It's no longer really a GOP base county, although certainly winnable.

From 2002 to 2008, the district was held by David Palsrok. Dan
Scripps won the open seat flipping it to the dems. Ray Franz won a
rematch with Scripps in 2010.In 2000, David Mead won his third term by 6000 votes, but lost Mason County, normally the most Republican county in the district. Mason County went for Bush that same year. In 2002, Palsrok won the open seat by 3000, but lost Mason County. Palsrok swept the district in 2004, winning by 5500. 2006 was a close call against Dan Scripps. Palsrok won by 1600, losing Leelanau County, and barely winning Manistee and Benzie Counties. Mason was the big county for Palsrok. Scripps absolutely demolished Ray Franz in 2008, but lost to him in 2010 once Scripps got himself a voting record.

Presidential wise, this district went for Bush twice and Obama once. Manistee County voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama. The rest of them went for Bush twice and Obama. I don't know how this one is going to go in 2012. I'm adding the 2008 numbers for St House here as well as 2008 and 2010 were a matchup with the same people. Ray Franz and Dan Scripps.

This is going to be a district to watch in 2012. Nothing up North comes easy, although much of this district has very different types of up north voters than the ones in Sheltrown's old district.

This is a safe district, dominated by Newaygo County, a base county. It's unchanged from the old district and on the state level, did got get within a 5000 vote spread recently. However, while Newaygo County is the largest and is safe, the other counties are not safe. Lake County has been democrat leaning for years due to Baldwin and Idlewild (Yates Twp) and the black population there. Oceana County has a sizable Mexican population keeping it competitive. Those two flipped big to Obama, but Newaygo County kept the district to McCain.