It is simple at this point, and this will not be the last time it is said: If No. 3 Notre Dame (11-0) wins at USC on Saturday (8 ET; ABC), it will be in the College Football Playoff. The odds of both No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Clemson losing are utterly slim, so the Irish will rise no higher than No. 2 and conceivably have to face both of them in a chase for a title.

Any hopes of Notre Dame jumping those unbeatens were all-but dashed by Playoff selection committee chairman Rob Mullens on Tuesday night after the most-recent poll was released.

“I want to be clear, we said there was a deep discussion on 3, 4, 5, and the head-to-head at this point still does carry the weight,” Mullens said. “That’s why Notre Dame is 3, Michigan is 4, and Georgia is 5.

“… When you look at those, we see Alabama and Clemson through week 12 as more complete teams with strength on both sides of the ball.”

Whether agreeing with that or not, the committee’s view is unlikely to change, barring an upset. That removes most all drama from the equation if the Irish can prevail this weekend.

If they lose, is there a route to the Playoff still? Yes.

It will help if Alabama and Clemson keep things easy and finish 13-0 each. Then, Notre Dame would need either, or both, Michigan or No. 6 Oklahoma (Friday; 8 ET; ESPN) to lose. No. 10 Ohio State’s body of work is unlikely to top an 11-1 Irish season, meaning the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten should not affect Notre Dame concerns.

Then, to reduce stress, it would help the Irish if No. 8 Washington State also lost, most likely Friday vs. No. 16 Washington (8:30 ET; FOX). Presuming, as an example, the Cougars and the Sooners lose but the Wolverines win out, that would leave a set Playoff field of Alabama, Clemson and Michigan with 11-1 Notre Dame and 13-0 Central Florida the likely candidates for the last spot.

That is far from an outlandish scenario for the Irish to suffer a loss but still reach the Playoff. It is, however, an unnecessary one. For once, Notre Dame controls what comes next. Just win.

Michigan (10-1): The Wolverines struggled for a bit with Indiana, trailing 17-15 at halftime before riding 50 rush attempts for 257 yards to a 31-20 victory.

Michigan now gets its make-or-break moment. Its first one, at least. As 5-point favorites at Ohio State (12 ET; FOX), the Wolverines should put a dagger in the Buckeyes’ faint Playoff hopes. A combined point total over/under of 56.5 paints a 31-26 picture.

Former Notre Dame assistant coach Chuck Martin has Miami (OH) bowl eligible and theoretically still in contention for a conference championship. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

Ball St. (4-8): The Cardinals ended their season with a 42-21 loss Tuesday at Miami (OH). For the RedHawks’ concerns, that win brought bowl eligibility to Chuck Martin’s team and kept alive the faintest of MAC title hopes; to reach the conference championship game, Martin now needs Ohio to win as 23.5-point favorites vs. Akron and Bowling Green to upset Buffalo as 14.5-point underdogs. Both games are Friday at 12 ET.

Vanderbilt (5-6): The Commodores beat Ole Miss 36-29 in overtime to bring themselves to the precipice of bowl eligibility, a third SEC win at their fingertips. If Vanderbilt can hold serve as a 3.5-point favorite against Tennessee (4 ET; SEC Network), it will be the third-straight win against the in-state rival.

Wake Forest (5-6): The Deacons were manhandled by Pittsburgh to the tune of 34-13 with only 285 total yards, 79 rushing yards and 20:29 time of possession. Things may not get better at Duke (12:30 ET) as 12-point underdogs with an over/under of 58.5 hinting at a 35-23 loss.

Stanford (6-4): Poor air quality due to the rampant wildfires in northern California forced the Cardinal and Cal to postpone their annual meeting until Dec. 1, a possibility because Stanford is not in conference title contention this season.

The Cardinal are favored by 6.5 points at UCLA (3 ET; Pac-12 Network).

Virginia Tech (4-6): A 38-14 loss to Miami forced the Hokies to conditionally schedule a game with Marshall on Dec. 1 in pursuit of bowl eligibility. If Virginia Tech upsets Virginia (Friday; 3:30 ET; ABC) despite being 4-point ‘dogs, then it will play the Thundering Herd. If the Hokies lose this weekend, though, that December contest will never come to be.

Pat Narduzzi and Pittsburgh will have the pleasure of meeting No. 2 Clemson in the ACC title game next weekend. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Pittsburgh (7-4): The Panthers won the ACC Coastal courtesy of their dismantling of Wake Forest. As a result, a letdown may be expected this weekend at Miami (3:30 ET; ESPN), with the Hurricanes favored by 4.5 and an over/under of 49 setting the stage for a 27-22 result.

Navy (3-8): The Midshipmen topped Tulsa 37-29 and are now 7-point underdogs heading to Tulane (12 ET; ESPNU). For most this would be the merciful end to a disappointing season, but obviously Army awaits in a couple weeks.

Northwestern (7-4): This screamed a letdown moment for the Wildcats, the week after winning the Big Ten West, but instead they handled their business at Minnesota, 24-14. Doing so again against Illinois (3:30 ET; Big Ten Network) would be impressive in its own right, even if favored by 17.

Florida State (5-6): The Seminoles needed a 74-yard touchdown pass with 1:49 left followed by a two-point conversion to beat Boston College 22-21 and keep their bowl hopes alive. The longest bowl streak in the NCAA will live or die against Florida (12 ET; ABC), with the Gators favored by 6.5 and the over/under of 53 indicating a 30-23 ending to the postseason run.

Syracuse (8-3): Losing by 33 points to Notre Dame may have a residual effect on the Orange, now touchdown underdogs at Boston College (12 ET; ESPN), though the status of senior quarterback Eric Dungey will undoubtedly impact those expectations, as yet unknown.

USC (5-6): The Trojans were outscored 13-0 in the final frame of a 34-27 loss at UCLA, continuing their spiral before facing the Irish (8 ET; ABC) as 10.5-point underdogs. The over/under of 54.5 equals a 32-22 projected score.

This is not to diminish the losses of receiver Miles Boykin and consensus first-team All-American cornerback Julian Love. Notre Dame will miss both of them, Love in particular. But looking at the Irish depth chart, there are avenues to survival without both.

Notre Dame will return two starting receivers in rising senior Chase Claypool and fifth-year-to-be Chris Finke (speaking of which, see below). A number of options exist to replace Love, though obviously none will match his shutdown abilities. Either rising sophomore TaRiq Bracy will put on the necessary muscle to compete with receivers at this level or rising senior Donte Vaughn will return reinvigorated with health after recent surgery to repair a torn labrum surgery or rising sophomore Houston Griffith will move from safety to get his talent on the field or fifth-year Shaun Crawford will recover from an ACL tear quicker than expected or … or … or … If one of those pans out, the Irish defense should be comfortable in its coverage, buoyed by the stalwart safety combination of Alohi Gilman and Jalen Elliott. (Imagine sincerely saying “stalwart safety combination” just six months ago.)

Look again at the depth chart, and such luxuries do not exist at defensive end. If rising seniors Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara had not opted to return, Notre Dame’s 2019 dreams would have hit a lowered ceiling nine months before the season began. By no means were they certain high-round draft picks, but the allure of athletic and talented defensive ends may have easily led to some outsized draft hopes.

Their backups are certainly more than capable — rising seniors Daelin Hayes and Ade Ogundeji — but a talented second-unit is as important at defensive end as dangerous starters are. To replace the latter with the former is to diminish the entire enterprise outright.

The Irish could not have recovered from losing both Kareem and Okwara, at least not to the extent where Playoff talk would be viable again. Lose one and it would have still been dubious, at best.

Take a look at the teams expected to be in the mix for the Playoff. Using current championship odds … Clemson at 2-to-1, Alabama at just less than 3-to-1, Georgia at 6-to-1, Ohio State at 8-to-1, Michigan at 16-to-1 and then Oklahoma also at 16-to-1. Those first five have been known for their defenses more than anything else in recent years. Bookmakers put some faith in their ability to reload on the fly.

Notre Dame has not earned that trust, and its roster does not indicate it should have. As well as Justin Ademilola performed as a freshman in four games, inserting him into a pivotal role in 2019 would likely be a recipe for a mediocre season. He is another year of development away from being ready for that role, barring a Matt Balis-induced excellent offseason.

The Irish will need Kareem and Okwara to survive the losses of defensive tackles Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bonner, but if they play as they did in 2018, that is a reasonable ask. If they continue to develop, it becomes a probability more than a Notre Dame leap of faith.

The Irish will miss Boykin’s back-shoulder reliability and everything about Love, but Brian Kelly and his coaching staff coaxed back the two most-pivotal pieces from NFL draft consideration.

Speaking of Finke, he confirmed his intent to return for his final year of eligibility Thursday evening. And he did it in a way only befitting a man comfortable in his own skin.

With the Wednesday announcement of current junior linebacker D.J. Morgan’s intention to transfer this summer as a graduate with two years of eligibility remaining, Notre Dame’s roster drops to 87 scholarship players expected this coming fall. Included among them, at least 12, possibly 14 linebackers. Before explaining that …

Morgan finishes his Irish career with two tackles in two 2017 appearances as a safety. He moved to linebacker during 2018’s spring practices, but never came particularly close to playing time. It remained difficult to see him cracking into the rotation moving forward given the quality of recruiting classes at the position in the last two cycles.

“I would like to thank the University of Notre Dame for everything they have done for me,” Morgan wrote on Twitter. “When I decided to come here, my main goal was to get my degree from this prestigious University, and I am proud to see that I will be completing that goal this summer!

“During this time I will be searching for a new school to attend as a graduate transfer to finish off my last 2 years of eligibility.”

(@deundraymorgan)

Before facing Louisville on Labor Day, the Irish will need to be down to 85 scholarship players. At 87 now, that does not include incoming freshman J.D. Bertrand, who had a recruitment handled in a deliberate fashion so as to make him eligible for an academic scholarship. Notre Dame also continues to chase two defenders — consensus four-star linebacker Asa Turner and consensus four-star defensive end Isaiah Foskey — who could balloon the roster count further.

Lacey will need to be ready for at least four games next season, especially with three of these six returning from injury: Tagovailoa-Amosa with a broken foot, though he did at least take some snaps against Clemson; Franklin from a torn quad that will limit him through the spring; and Spears from a torn ACL that could conceivably cost him 2019.

Former Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush will continue his career at Central Florida. Wimbush announced his graduate transfer destination Tuesday morning.

“The journey continues on …,” Wimbush wrote on Instagram. “A sincere thank you to Notre Dame for giving me endless opportunities on and off the field. Words truly can not (sic) describe what this incredible University and the PEOPLE mean to me and always will mean to me. I’m truly thankful. Cannot say it enough.

“With that being said, I am excited to announce that UCF has granted me an awesome opportunity to play my last year of collegiate football for their great University.”

Wimbush will enter into a starting opportunity, although an unfortunate one and a competitive one. The late November horrendous knee injury to three-year starter McKenzie Milton will almost-assuredly sideline him through the 2019 season. If not for the injury, Milton would either be starting 2019 for the Knights or headed to the NFL.

In his first year of any action, sophomore Darriel Mack played in 10 games for Central Florida, completing 51 of his 100 pass attempts for 619 yards and three touchdowns, including going 35-of-71 for 526 yards and three scores in the two-plus games Milton missed.

Wimbush finishes his Irish career with a 13-3 record as a starter, including four wins during 2018’s unbeaten regular season. After the Notre Dame offense failed to break 24 points in the first three games of the season, offensive coordinator Chip Long turned to Ian Book for a spark, one Book provided and then some.

Wimbush’s role became non-existent after that, aside from a Senior Day start in place of an injured Book, throwing for 130 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 68 yards.

Mustipher and Co. will now have reason to keep an eye on the Knights in 2019. After going 25-1 in the last two seasons, Central Florida will want to keep the momentum rolling, particularly with Stanford arriving in Orlando on Sept. 14, a week before the Knights head to Pittsburgh. The Knights genuinely entering the College Football Playoff conversation remains unlikely, but topping those two before rolling through the American Athletic Conference would at least start the discussion, especially if a former Irish quarterback headlines the way.

Named 2018’s Next Man In, Wimbush finishes his Irish career with 2,606 yards on 193-of-382 passing with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions along with 1,155 rushing yards and 16 additional touchdowns.

AS FOR NOTRE DAME’S QB IN 2019 …Early Heisman odds came from an online sportsbook Tuesday, betonline.ag. Irish rising senior Ian Book was given 16-to-1 odds, tied for ninth on the listing. Given the names ahead of him, Book’s realistic chances of winning the Heisman Trophy are slim. Only Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have odds lower than 12-to-1, at 7-to-2 and 4-to-1, respectively.

Then come two Notre Dame opponents — Georgia running back D’Andre Swift and quarterback Jake Fromm, both at 12-to-1. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson checks in at 25-to-1, just ahead of Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello at 33-to-1.

If nothing else, Book can count on some early-season hype if the Irish top Swift and Fromm on Sept. 21.

Dabo Swinney paid tribute to the late Tyler Trent in his speech while Clemson visited the White House 🙏

A sign of a strong program is one that loses players to the NFL before they exhaust eligibility. In that vein, Notre Dame lost a consensus first-team All-American cornerback, its leading receiver and a long-time tease of a tight end. The last of those (Alizé Mack) was never expected back for a fifth season; replacing Miles Boykin’s production is certainly within reason; and a consensus first-team All-American should be expected to take the route junior Julian Love has.

Even with that expectation, losing Love — and to a lesser extent, Boykin — alters the natural roster cycle, the inherent design intended during recruiting. Reloading is always the hope, the next intention, but very rarely is the young backup comparable to the near professional, even by the end of the coming season.

Nonetheless, the Irish got off easy this cycle compared to four of their 2019 opponents …

GEORGIA: Junior running back Elijah Holyfield, the Bulldogs’ second-leading rusher, departs after gaining 1,018 rushing yards with seven touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry this season. Frankly, that is the least of Georgia’s losses. Three of quarterback Jake Fromm’s four favorite targets will leave eligibility on the figurative table:

Without running back Karan Higdon, Michigan will presumably rely on its passing game more in 2019, quarterback Shea Patterson’s second season as a Wolverine. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

MICHIGAN: The Wolverines got good news when quarterback Shea Patterson opted to return for 2019, but losing leading-rusher Karan Higdon (1,178 yards, 10 touchdowns, 5.3 average) will be an issue head coach Jim Harbaugh undoubtedly hoped to avoid. Junior tight end Zach Gentry, Patterson’s third-most prolific target with 32 catches for 514 yards and two scores, will also head to the next level.

On the flip side, Harbaugh could have hoped linebacker Devin Bush (team-leading 80 tackles with 9.5 for loss including five sacks), defensive end Rashan Gary (44 tackles with seven for loss including 3.5 sacks) or linebacker David Long (17 tackles with one interception) might return, but no such luck for Michigan.

Duke junior quarterback Daniel Jones will head to the NFL after his third season as a starter, immediately lowering the Blue Devils’ 2019 expectations. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

DUKE: Junior linebacker Joe Giles-Harris paced the Blue Devils with 81 tackles, including seven for loss with one sack, doing so in only nine games. But losing Giles-Harris is hardly the concern for Duke. The decision to turn pro from quarterback Daniel Jones is.

In his third year as a starter, the junior fought through a broken collarbone to still play in 11 games in 2018, completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions. He added 319 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Jones’ decision may come as a surprise, but it is one that should work out well for both him and Notre Dame. Some mock drafts project him as a top-10 pick. In a draft light on quarterbacks — partly because Oregon’s Justin Herbert returned for another season, yet already somewhat counteracted by the Monday draft entry from Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray — Jones could end up being the third or fourth passer picked.

BOSTON COLLEGE: The Eagles will say farewell to junior cornerback Hemp Cheevers after he notched seven interceptions this season, returning one for a touchdown, to go along with 39 tackles.

STANFORD: This will seem like the Cardinal lost a lot to the NFL draft, but it could have been worse: As the departures mounted, so did speculation junior quarterback K.J. Costello might follow them. He opted not to.

Stanford will be without running back Bryce Love after his prodigious two seasons as the starter. Consider that a loss akin to the Irish Love, the inevitable price of enjoying the success in the first place.

Junior receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside will capitalize on his breakout season of 1,059 yards and 14 touchdowns, depriving Costello of his favorite jump-ball threat.

Junior tight end Kaden Smith will also head to the next level, in large part thanks to his 47 catches for 635 yards and two touchdowns this past season.

Louisville, New Mexico, Virginia, Bowling Green, USC, Virginia Tech and Navy all did not lose anyone early or pseudo-early to the NFL draft.