Monday, February 19, 2018

Staunton, February 19 – Like crony
capitalists elsewhere, Vladimir Putin has promoted “the privatization of profit
and the nationalization of losses,” an approach that has played a larger role
than falling oil prices or anything else in the continuing stagnation and degradation
of the Russian economy, Maksim Mironov says.

But now the Kremlin leader has
extended that idea to foreign policy, insisting that “all victories are ours”
but that any defeats are things Moscow has nothing to do with and indeed knows
nothing about, an approach that may give tactical advantages but that in the
longer term leads to the degradation of the Russian military (echo.msk.ru/blog/mmironov/2150560-echo/).

Mironov, who teaches economics in
Madrid, argues that Putin’s application of a domestic model for foreign affairs
was clearly in play during the beginning of the Russian moves in Ukraine. When
no one resisted as in Crimea, he proclaimed victory and was celebrated for it;
when Ukrainians did resist in the Donbass, he claimed Moscow wasn’t involved.

This approach has allowed Putin to
avoid responsibility for the Donbass and the obvious Russian involvement in the
shooting down of the Malaysian jetliner, the economist says; and the Kremlin
leader is seeking to extend it to Syria, where all victories are ascribed “to the
glory of Russian arms and the genius of Putin personally.”

But defeats in contrast “are either
minimized or even recognized as such” as has been the case with the massive
number of deaths of Russian mercenaries on the night of February 7-8.One can only imagine how Moscow media would
have covered the events if the mercenaries had not lost but succeeded in
seizing the oil processing facility.

However, “the operation failed, and
Russia by all possible means has tried to separate itself from this defeat: these
are not out soldiers, we in general aren’t aware of what occurred there, and so
on and so forth.” Many see this as a brilliant play by Putin, and at the tactical
level, it may be, Mironov says.

But just as in the economy where the
Kremlin refused to recognize reality and instead after 2008 covered with tax
money all the losses of its oligarch allies, this approach is leading to the
degradation of the Russian armed forces and for the same reason.

If Russia is to be successful, “every
defeat should be analyzed. Generals responsible for them must be punished.” If
weapons don’t work, they must be changed and so on.But that is possible only if those in
positions of power are honest about what is happening and admit to both
victories and defeats.

“In Russia now,” however, “the
military take responsibility for victories,” Mironov says; “but none of the
military commanders, including the minister of defense take responsibility for
defeats.” The presence of mercenary units who do not fight under the Russian
flag make that even easier.

Everyone responded
with hysteria when Russian athletes were compelled to appear at the Olympic
under a flag other than Russia’s, but they have not recognized that “our military
already for many years has been fighting without any flag. The state has
intentionally sent them into battle as ‘nothing,’’” ready to disown them if
they do not succeed.

This is extremely destructive over
the longer term, Mironov says. “If we want to have a strong and successful
army, then the military must fight under the flag of their native country. And
generals must take responsibility not only for victories but also for defeats.”And the families of those who die in that
cause must be taken care of.

Otherwise, the economist says, what Russia
will have is “not an army but a band of people with guns from whom you never
know what to expect.”