2014-15 Schedule Comparisons

Okay so I know that there’s already a 2014-15 Schedule Thread but I decided I’d go way deeper into it and see which teams will have the easiest and hardest schedules, strictly by using math (math major here, couldn’t help myself).

Aside: Mods please don’t mesh, this thread is a completely different conversation than the Schedule thread.

All Western Conference teams will be ignored because we’re in the Eastern Conference and it’s too much work to do every team.

So first off, I’m going to class all the teams into four groups: TOP (the elite teams; title contendors), MID (the next level of teams that are almost a lock for the playoffs), LOW (the teams that will struggle to make the playoffs but will be in the conversation) and BOTTOM (the teams with no chance of seeing the playoffs; the “tankers” if you will).

TOP
Cleveland - Because LeBron
Chicago - They finished 4th last year and replaced Boozer with Pau, Mirotic, Mcbuckets and a seemingly healthy Rose

MID
Toronto - no shocker here
Washington - again, no shocker here
Miami - Bosh, Deng, Wade and McBob should keep them competitive
Charlotte - Lance and Vonleh should boost them up to this level
Atlanta - they were 3rd all year last year before Horford went down, they’ll be right back there with him

LOW
Brooklyn - lost a step obviously but should stay competitive with Lopez back
New York - will battle for the 8th seed with their new offense
Detroit - deeper team than most people realize, they should be in the running for the playoffs
Indiana - as long as they don’t blow it up they should be at the same level as the other LOW teams

Okay so if we allocate points to each group, we’ll be able to judge how hard a game will be. I experimented with a couple different set of numbers here but I settled with this set because I thought it was easiest to work with and the most accurate.
TOP - 8 Points
MID - 6 Points
LOW - 4 Points
BOTTOM - 2 Points

So how it’ll work is if you play a top team, your point total goes up. The more points, the harder the schedule. There’s a little more factors into this because of course nothing’s ever this simple. So obviously every team plays every team in their division 4 times each, so there will be automatic points given to each team no matter how the schedule is set up. This number will be called Division Points. Western Conference games aren’t in question because every team plays each Western Conference team twice. So that clears up 46 total games. The other 36 games is where it gets interesting. How it works is that each team plays 6 out of division teams 4 times and plays the other 4 teams only 3 times. 6x4 and 4x3 gives us a total of 36. MAX Points is the maximum amount of points a team can get (plays the best teams more often). This does not include points earned in the division. Likewise, MIN Points is the least amount of points a team can get (plays the bad teams more often) and again it does not include points earned in the division. Median Total Points is the average of these two numbers, or the number of points teams should have (assuming they play bad teams just as often as they play good teams). Total Plus/Minus gives us the amount of points a team has more or less the the Median Total Points.

Now there’s a basis to our numbers, but there’s even more factors going into this.

For every back-to-back, 1 point is added to teams totals. If the back-to-back is a home-road, road-home or a road-road back-to-back (pretty much of the team has to travel between games), then 1 additional point was given. For every 3 game road-trip, 1 point was added to the total. For every 5 game road-trip 1 additional point was given (so a 5 game road-trip gets you 2 points). For every 3 game homestand, a point was subtracted. Likewise, a 5 game homestand gets you an additional point reduced.

So halfway through this I realized this method punishes worse teams and rewards better teams so the only way it actually works is if we compare teams in the same tier, so I will obviously do the MID level.

Results Table:

Toronto

Atlanta

Charlotte

Miami

Washington

Division Points

48

80

80

80

80

MAX Points

196

166

166

166

166

MIN Points

148

150

150

150

150

Median Total Points

172

158

158

158

158

Out Of Division Points

186

158

160

154

162

Total Plus/Minus

Plus 14

Even

Plus 2

Minus 4

Plus 4

Total Points

234

238

240

234

242

Back To Backs

19

21

22

17

18

H/R or R/R BTB's

19

19

22

17

18

3 Game Roadtrips

6

5

4

5

4

5 Game Roadtrips

1

1

0

2

1

3 Game Homestands

4

2

6

5

5

5 Game Homestands

3

1

0

1

1

4 Games In 5 Nights

3

3

2

1

4

Net Misc Points

41

46

44

36

39

Final Point Total

275

284

284

270

281

Some things that this shows us:
1. Miami plays the easiest competition (they’re the only team that actually had easier competition than the median), with the fewest back-to-backs, the fewest back-to-backs where they have to travel between games, and the fewest instances of 4 games in 5 nights. Put that all together and it’s easy to see that Miami has the easiest schedule of all the East Mid-tier teams.
2. The level of competition played against by Toronto and Miami is the same, even though our division is a lot weaker which leads us to…
3. The NBA is clearly trying to even out the playing field and not let any teams have advantages and disadvantages just because of the division they play in. This is very evident because Toronto is nowhere near their Median Points. The NBA-schedulers are making sure we play against good competition because had we actually played our median, our Total Points would have been 220, nowhere near any other teams and actually a full 22 points clear of Washington. The way it’s set up has everyone within 8 points. Of course we still have the advantage of a top-four spot if we win our division so there’s that.
4. With the 4 teams in the Southeast division so close as far as how good the teams are, don’t be surprised if Miami wins that division thanks to a huge advantage through the schedule.
5. Charlotte never plays 5 straight games neither at home or on the road while every other team has at least one 5 game homestand AND one 5 game road trip. Weird.
6. We had four three game homestands and of the four, three actually stretch to five games. Again, weird.
7. Atlanta is the only team of the five to actually have a back-to-back exclusively at home. I thought that happened a lot more often for some reason.

Thanks for the read if you got this far.

TL;DR: OMFG THE NBA KEEPS SCREWING THE RAPTORS OVER AND THE HEAT HAVE SUCH AN EASY SCHEDULE F*%K YOU ADAM SILVER I SMELL YOUR CONSPIRACY FROM ALL THE WAY UP NORTH

TL;DR: OMFG THE NBA KEEPS SCREWING THE RAPTORS OVER AND THE HEAT HAVE SUCH AN EASY SCHEDULE F*%K YOU ADAM SILVER I SMELL YOUR CONSPIRACY FROM ALL THE WAY UP NORTH

the nba is being favorable to miami and the lakers
they need wade and kobe to keep being super stars so they conviently gave them the least amount of back to backs to help those old knees play in more games

if i were an owner of any of the other 28 teams in the league i would be pissed

the nba is being favorable to miami and the lakers
they need wade and kobe to keep being super stars so they conviently gave them the least amount of back to backs to help those old knees play in more games

if i were an owner of any of the other 28 teams in the league i would be pissed

With the clippers being the number one team in LA now it will be harder for the Lakers to attracted all-star talent. Any extra wins they will get due to and easier schedule will only hurt their team in the long run for they will need to build threw the draft.

Miami on the other hand i can agree with you, im one of the few people that think they will win the southeast, we will truly get to see how much bosh was sacrificing playing LBJ, i for one think he will finish the year in top ten mvp voting. I also totally understand most people will think that's crazy. so ill say it now its just my dumb opinion hah.

Miami on the other hand i can agree with you, im one of the few people that think they will win the southeast, we will truly get to see how much bosh was sacrificing playing LBJ, i for one think he will finish the year in top ten mvp voting. I also totally understand most people will think that's crazy. so ill say it now its just my dumb opinion hah.

i agree that bosh should be able to get back to atleast 22/9 kind of thing
if wade stay healthy enough to be the #2 option, dengs game fits nicely as a number 3

Shouldn't the "strength of schedule" outside of division be the difference of only 6 games?

Every team has to play division teams 4 times (16 games there)
Every team has to play outside-conference teams 2 times (30 games there)
Every team has to play non-division, in-conference teams 3 times (30 games)

Shouldn't the "strength of schedule" outside of division be the difference of only 6 games?

Every team has to play division teams 4 times (16 games there)
Every team has to play outside-conference teams 2 times (30 games there)
Every team has to play non-division, in-conference teams 3 times (30 games)

?

Edit: Fixed the math

Well, technically of those out-of-division, in-conference teams, they play 6 of them 4 times and 4 of them 3 times.

So, the difference is, every team plays every other conference team 3 times at least. It is where the extra game falls and against whom that matters for each team. Each team will play their own division opponents 4 times each - other in-conference teams will play one or two of those opponents one less time.

Well, technically of those out-of-division, in-conference teams, they play 6 of them 4 times and 4 of them 3 times.

So, the difference is, every team plays every other conference team 3 times at least. It is where the extra game falls and against whom that matters for each team. Each team will play their own division opponents 4 times each - other in-conference teams will play one or two of those opponents one less time.

True.

And I guess the chart does a good job of showing how the home/road trips will affect us.

Let's hope we don't put up a doughnut during that December trip. I don't think any of the players have experienced that before.