A new Siena Research Institute poll released today shows a 14-point lead for the Republican seeking the western New York’s 29th Congressional District seat vacated in March by Democrat Eric Massa.

Tom Reed, a former mayor of Corning who entered the race as the GOP candidate in July last year, leads Democrat Matt Zeller, an Afghanistan war veteran, 44 percent to 30 percent among likely voters.

The seat is considered the most likely Republican pickup in New York this November among the seven to eight House seats that nonpartisan political handicappers consider in play around the state.

Nationally, Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to regain the 218 seats that would give them a majority in the House.

By a 15-point margin, voters in the district want Republicans to regain control of the House, with 53 percent favoring it and 38 percent hoping Democrats keep their majority.

The new Siena survey of 613 likely voters makes it less likely that Zeller, a first-time candidate who entered the race in the spring, will get significant financial support from national Democrats as the party focuses on seats it has a better chance of successfully defending.

However, the Siena poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, also shows there’s time for the outlook to change.

Twenty-six percent of voters surveyed were undecided.

Only 31 percent indicated they would not change their candidate preference prior to the November election.

The two candidates also remain largely unknown, especially Zeller. Eighty-two percent said they did not know or had no opinion of him. His favorable-unfavorable rating was a miniscule 9 percent to 9 percent.

Fifty-seven percent said they didn’t know Reed or didn’t have an opinion of him. His favorable-unfavorable rating was split almost evenly, 21 percent to 22 percent.

The vast majority of voters – 88 percent for Zeller and 80 percent for Reed – said they hadn’t been contacted by the campaign or seen any campaign ads.

Consistent with polling by Siena in other congressional districts in upstate, voters said jobs are the No. 1 issue in the election. Forty percent cited that issue as the biggest, compared to the budget deficit (17 percent), health care (12 percent), education (10 percent), the war in Afghanistan (10 percent), and taxes (9 percent).

Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri of Utica holds an 8-point lead over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in a rematch of their 2008 race in New York’s 24th Congressional District, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released today.

Arcuri, a former district attorney, leads Hanna, a businessman from Barneveld, 48 percent to 40 percent, in a campaign that’s rated a tossup by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Highlighting the fluidity of the race, only 39 percent of voters predicted their preference would not change by Election Day.

Arcuri’s seat is considered among the top three opportunities Republicans have to pick up more seats in the state this year in their quest to regain majority control of the House. Also topping that list is the open seat in the 29th District in Western New York, where former Corning mayor Tom Reed is favored to beat Democrat Matt Zeller, an Afghanistan war veteran. Another GOP opportunity is the 19th District race in the Hudson Valley, where Democratic Rep. John Hall’s effort to win a third term against Republican physician Nan Hayworth is considered another tossup.

Democrats hold a 26-2 majority in the state’s House delegation, with New York’s 29th District seat vacant.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said the Arcuri-Hanna race “figures to be just as intense and just as hard-fought as the race two years ago. While Arcuri has two more years of a record in Congress, it’s hard to know whether that will help him or hurt him in a year where voters are unhappy with Washington. This race is getting national attention, and we can certainly understand why.”

Arcuri was viewed favorably by 53 percent of 605 likely voters surveyed last Monday through Wednesday by Siena. Another 26 percent viewed him unfavorably while 21 percent had no opinion or didn’t know him.

Forty-four percent said they didn’t know Hanna or had no opinion of the Republican challenger. He was viewed favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 19 percent.

Voters in the district – which covers central New York and parts of the Southern Tier – were divided in their opinion of President Barack Obama, 47 percent to 47 percent, in terms of favorable or unfavorable.

Voters also split 47 percent to 47 percent on the issue of recently passed health care reform legislation, with equal numbers supporting it and wanting Congress to repeal it.

Obama’s proposal to eliminate income tax cuts for individuals earning over $200,000 and couples earning more than $250,000 had the support of 54 percent of those polled, with 42 percent opposed.

By a slightly larger margin – 55 percent to 39 percent – voters also supported Obama’s proposal for another $50 billion economic stimulus program to create jobs through road improvements and other transportation projects.

The No. 1 election issue, by a large margin, is jobs. Forty-six percent of likely voters cited that issue as their top choice, ahead of the federal budget deficit (15 percent), health care (13 percent), the war in Afghanistan (9 percent), taxes (8 percent) and education (8 percent).

That ranking of issues roughly mirrors the responses Siena received last week in another congressional poll for the state’s 20th Congressional District in the upper Hudson Valley.

The first public poll of likely voters in one of the most competitive House races in New York shows Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy of Glens Falls holding a 17-point lead over Republican Chris Gibson of Kinderhook in the upper Hudson Valley’s 20th Congressional District.

Murphy, who won the seat formerly held by Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a special election last year, holds a 54 percent to 37 percent lead over Gibson in a Siena Research Institute survey released Friday.

Even though the general election is more than six weeks away, only 10 percent of the 603 likely voters surveyed Sunday through Tuesday were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The low percentage of undecided voters doesn’t mean people who have expressed a preference won’t change their minds as Election Day nears, according to Steven Greenburg of the Siena poll.

“Only 46 percent said they weren’t going to change their vote,” he said.

The Siena poll shows Murphy’s support is strongest in the northernmost part of the district, which reaches up to Lake Placid. Likely voters in Essex, Washington and Warren counties favored Murphy by 59 percent to 31 percent.

Gibson’s support is strongest at the southern end of the district – in Dutchess, Greene, Otsego, Columbia and Delaware counties – where he trails Murphy by only 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent. That part of the district also had the largest segment of undecided voters – 13 percent.

Among voters not registered as Democrats or Republicans, Murphy held a sizeable 28-point lead, 58 percent to 30 percent.

Forty-one percent of likely voters around the district cited jobs as the most important issue in the race. Ranking far behind were the budget deficit (19 percent), health care (12 percent), the war in Afghanistan (10 percent), education (8 percent) and taxes (7 percent).

That appears to play to Murphy’s strengths. He is a former entrepreneur and venture capitalist.

Gibson, a retired Army colonel, has touted his leadership experience and knowledge of foreign affairs.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democrat,” meaning Murphy is favored for re-election, but the election is competitive.

Three other New York Democrats, Rep. Bill Owens in the North Country’s 23rd CD, Rep. Mike McMahon in the Staten Island-part of Brooklyn 13th CD, and Rep. Tim Bishop in eastern Long Island’s 1st CD, are rated the same by Cook.

The 19th CD in the lower Hudson Valley and the 24th CD in central New York are rated toss-ups. Republican businessman Richard Hanna is trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, a former district attorney, in the central New York district. Republican physician Nan Hayworth is challenging Democratic Rep. John Hall in the Hudson Valley.

James Lawrence has, for the past 14 years as Editorial Page editor, been responsible for producing more than 5,100 daily Editorial and Speaking Out pages. He started his journalism career in Cleveland shortly after graduating from Howard University in Washington, D.C. Along the way, he has had career stops in Denver, Orlando, Fla., and White Plains. But unquestionably, he says, some of his most rewarding years as a journalist have been here in Rochester, being a part of positive change. That change has included reforms that followed an aggressive “Challenging Albany” campaign, greater public awareness and pushback against the coarsening of our culture, and strides being made to make this region a destination community.

Jane Sutter became deputy editorial page editor in June 2009. She also has served as managing editor and general manager/custom content at the Democrat and Chronicle. She writes editorials on many topics, with a focus on health and education, helps plan and edit copy on the Editorial and Speaking Out pages, oversees the Board of Contributors and assists Editorial Page editor James Lawrence in managing the department. She has worked as a reporter or editor for newspapers in Iowa, Illinois, Florida, South Carolina and Elmira, where she was executive editor of the Star-Gazette. She recently received her master’s degree in media management from the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

Cara Matthews has been a statehouse correspondent in the Albany Bureau since August 2005. Prior to that, she covered Putnam County government and politics at The Journal News for nearly five years. Before that, she worked at newspapers in Connecticut and covered the state Legislature for one of them.

Brian Tumulty has worked in the Gannett Washington Bureau since 1992, first as a national business writer and then as a regional reporter for newspapers in New York, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. A native of the New York City borough of Queens, he attended high school on Long Island and college in the Bronx. He has four children and one granddaughter.