Sunday, May 27, 2007

Fun with numbers....

One year ago today, the tigers had just run off 8 straight and 15 of 16 to bring their record to 35-14 and that brought all the speculation and number crunching. - if the Tigers go just .500 in their remaining games, they will win 105 games etc, etc. Well it turns out that MN were actually 12.5 games out and did come back and win the division on the last day of the season, which of course did not stop the Tigers from advancing to the WS.

In 2005, it was the White Sox who started 33-14 on their way to 41-19 and much of the discussion again was "if they just go .500."

Well, I have not read the papers today, but I imagine it won't be long before we see the #'s for this year's Sox. At 33-15 and NY (and TOR and BAl) at essentially 21-16, if the Sox go .500 , they will win 90 games. That does not sound like a ton, but given the state of their competition, it could/should be enough to win the division. NY would have to go 70-45 just to win 90. I guess they could do that - it is only 98 win pace and many people had them at that before the season - of course that is pre-Roger, but also pre Damon, Cano and Abreu forgetting how to hit. And its not that unprecedented. MN went 79-42 from May 15 last year, I have a feeling this will get interesting again.

But I do believe it is only a matter of days before we start seeing the numbers.....

6 comments:

Hi to you, and already I've seen those "what if..." numbers. It's still May, and with the make-up of the '07 Sox they have no business and will never flirt with a record anywhere near .500. Josh is back tomorrow, Jon Lester soon, although Tavie has been great (1 hit through 5 yest.).....I like what I see. WE ALL DO!!!!! Happy and healthy weekend to you and the GYS crew! Pete

My sense is warped because I was in NY this weekend. The sports radio there is all doom and gloom. They all talked about getting to 95 wins. Apparently, the Yankees need to play 35 games over .500 to do that!

Other than that CHB has posted a magic number at the bottom of his column at least once.

Youk will not hit like this all season. Okajima won't be lights out all season. Papelbon will blow a few saves (he's been playing with some fire already). Lowell will cool off.

This pitching staff is too good to have an extended losing streak, though. Is that a jinx? Probably not. And Manny will heat up, and Ortiz will hit home runs again, and Drew will come up to his usual numbers.

I am thinking that they are a 97-98 win team...and that is only playing .550 the rest of the way.

I, for one, can see the Yankees (very easily) putting together a 9 out of 10 winning streak, followed by an 8 of 10. Pair that with slow down by the Sox, and the Yankees are within striking distance.

I still don't think these head-to-head series will have much of an impact (barring a sweep).

Conclusion? If the Sox play consistently (not lights out like they have been playing), the Yankees MUST play lights-out the rest of the way.