As anticipated in our last week’s “Technical Weekly”, we expected further downside in DAX30 and SP500. Also according to our last weeks release, the German Bund and US-10 Year Notes have proceeded to higher highs along with EURUSD, USDCAD and Gold. Moreover, Crude Oil WTI has reached our suggested support at 38 and rapidly rebounded as expected. For the upcoming week, we have several make-or-break scenarios especially on the Equity Indices side.

Highlights (Week 36):

DAX30 â€“ retest of recent lows to be expected?
SMI – is the panic over? New highs in sight?
S&P500 – trading at 50% retracement, now rebound to all-time highs?

In EURJPY we have a falling-wedge triangle formation in place which has an exhaustive character. It usually signs the end of a move of one larger degree and leads to a fast and high-volume driven move in the reverse direction of the occurring trend. In the case of EURJPY, the momentum troughs no longer confirm the latest price lows (see yellow lines in RSI & MACD). These divergences have to be taken as a serious warning and not as trading signals. One should always wait until the price breaks out and confirms the recent warnings in momentum indicators.
Should EUR strengthen against JPY and break out of this triangle formation, one could place the risk stop just below the 2-year low at around 126.09 (-2%) and set the profit target limits at around 141.75 (+10%) / 150.00 (+16%).
141.75 signs the “beginning” of the falling-wedge formation which provides an initial indication of the first price target whereas 150 is the multi-year (6 years) top confirmed with a high-momentum peak. Take in mind that a trend never ends with a peak in momentum and therefore always needs a higher high in price unconfirmed by momentum before it finally breaks its trend and reverses.

Target has almost been reached and I recommend to close the position at current levels (139.65 – 139.70) as limit has to be raised by 0.10 due to rising support line.

See also screenshot below.

Happy trading guys!

So long,

revive13.com

Good afternoon

We see EURJPY forming a head-and-shoulders formation supported by bearish divergences in momentum Â – short EURJPY at the retest of head-and-shoulders neckline at 140.50. (meaning: market has to break neckline, go lower and test neckline, if market does not re-break neckline upwards, signal is valid and head-and-shoulders formation is confirmed).

Profit target 139.60 (Target line)

Protective stop 141.02Â

Trade horizon = 5 days

The more aggressive traders could already short a small position at current levels, but be aware that a head-and-shoulders formation is not valid unless confirmed by neckline retest.