“Republicans will not get any credit for getting a bill through half of the Congress,” writes Matt Barreto, founding principal of Latino Decisions and an associate professor of political science at the University of Washington, Seattle. “Latino voters expect to see the GOP successfully move immigration reform and send a true compromise bill to the President.”

Half of survey respondents were asked if they would back Senator Rubio after hearing this prompt:

“Currently the U.S. Congress is debating a comprehensive immigration reform bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in the United States. Republican Marco Rubio played a key role in helping to pass this bill and with Rubio’s leadership undocumented immigrants receive legal status and a path to citizenship.”

When the respondents were then asked how likely they would be to back Rubio in the 2016 presidential election, 54 percent of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for him, including half of those who supported Obama in 2012. Without the prompt, however, Rubio failed to reach the 30 percent threshold.

After a prompt stating Mr. Bush’s support for a bill with a path to citizenship, 47 percent of those surveyed said they were likely to vote for him, including 42 percent of those who cast ballots for Obama during his reelection bid.

Pollsters also suggested to those surveyed that Representative Ryan, his party’s 2012 vice-presidential candidate, has become an outspoken supporter of immigration reform efforts and could be positioned to help move such legislation (with a path to citizenship) through the House. They then asked what effect that information would have on the respondents’ votes in the next presidential cycle: Forty-four percent said they would be likely to vote for him, including 40 percent of Obama voters.

More than 11 million Latino voters cast ballots in 2012, and that number is expected to increase to more than 12.5 million in 2016, according to Latino Decisions. In both 2008 and 2012, Obama’s strength with this demographic helped him carry crucial swing states owned by President Bush in 2004: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia.

In 2004, Mr. Bush snared approximately 40 percent of the Latino vote. By contrast, Obama bested his 2012 Republican foe, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by winning support from more than 70 percent of Latino voters.

Mr. Barreto of Latino Decisions suggests there’s hope for the GOP – that the party could loosen the Democrats’ grip on this voting population if they pick an immigration reform-friendly nominee in 2016.

“The polling data today suggests Rubio, most of all, but Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan as well, can equal or eclipse the 40 percent mark among Latinos if they provide leadership on immigration reform to get a bill signed into law,” he writes. “However they remain far from the 40 percent mark right now.”

3 I wish I could believe that would make any difference how people would vote, but I doubt Rubio would garner any significant increase in the Hispanic vote. That poll apparently presents Latinos with one positive bit of information about one of the candidates, then asks them how they’d vote. I seriously doubt its predictive ability.

Regardless, I don’t think Rubio will go anywhere in the primaries. Right now I think Rand Paul will win Iowa, Christie will win NH, then Florida & SC will choose between them.

For all those in autopanic mode over over-the-hill Hill: How do you account for her decline in a friendly poll, despite the fact that she’s relying on the old adage, “Absence makes the heart grow fonder”? Is she just falling with Bam? Or are people slowly waking up to the real prospect of her as POTUS?

#8, usually your statements illustrate an understanding of the whole, but you lose all rational thought with Hillary.She is welled liked by most of the part as is Christie by the GOP except the far right.But she is ahead of him in numbers generally with the party than is Christie. The GOP better worry about Texas if Hillary runs 2016, because she will carry the state. The GOP has no worry about 2016 if Hillary runs, they have NOBODY that can beat her. The far right has already screwed up the women, minority, labor, gay, youth, independent, moderate vote. You will have to wait until 2024 for a possible chance. That appears very slim after 11 to 30 million illegals become voters. Its over boys.

@13: While I agree that prospects are not good, I don’t think they’re as bad as you make them out to be. I think that between now and then, with a little work by regular folks talking up his good points to other voters, Paul will be able to threaten Clinton and possibly win.

I’ll vote for anyone who can beat Hillary, and restore some sanity after the Obama disaster. If it’s Rubio, fine, or even Christie–who is really making it hard–or Paul Ryan too. Right now none look all that great, though. I just hope Rick Santorum gets struck by lightening so that he doesn’t mess up the entire primary for us. All we need is another couple of clowns like Cain, Newt and Rick to make it impossible.

This is probably B.S. All the establishment people said this last time, but none of them would have voted for anybody but Romney…maybe Santorum. By some miracle had a Cain or Ron Paul won, plenty of folks would have stayed home….just as many of us stayed home with Romney. Establishment folks wish to have us all believe otherwise, but they have no moral high-ground. And they all attempt to have the primary before the primary by simply ignoring serious candidates with the goal that they will, in due time, be erased from the conversation. Martha, I notice you don’t even mention Rand Paul, and that tells everything…he and Chris Christie would be 1a and 1b right now.

Corrected:

“I’ll vote for anyone who can beat Hillary…so long as it’s from the GOP leadership-approved list of establishment, candy-ass, tow-the-party-line, raise the debt ceiling, bomb Iran, empty suits that are driving our party left to irrelevance, and to bask in the tall shadow of liberalism, disguised as moderates, in the Democrat party.”