or why Lord of the Rings: Return of the King will not win Best Picture.

Updated 2004 Oscar Predictions

In the last 45 years, only two films have won the Academy Award for Best Picture and have not had an actor or actress even nominated in an acting category. I don't think this year will see a third. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King is a fine movie, definitely deserving of a nomination for Best Picture, however, let me explain why it won't win.

Acting
As I said, in the last 45 years only two films have won the Best Picture award without a nomination in any of the four acting categories. The other two films were Braveheart and the Last Emperor which both had extenuating circumstances that lead to their wins.

The Last Emperor (1987) was up against Broadcast News, Hope & Glory, Moonstruck, and Fatal Attraction. It was by far the most sweeping and compelling movie of the five. As a period piece, a foreign period film even, it had the mystique that the others simply couldn't match.

Braveheart (1995) won as the result of a split vote and a lack of respect for the other nominees. The other nominees were Apollo 13, Babe, Sense & Sensibility, and The Postman (Il Postino). Apollo 13 and Babe both were disregarding, albeit for different reasons. Apollo 13 faced the 'this year's feel good Tom Hanks film' backlash. Babe was a children's movie and therefore not given a second glance. Finally, Sense & Sensibility and The Postman (Il Postino) simply split the "artistic" vote, leaving Braveheart as the winner.

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King does not face those same conditions. It is up again strong films of different genres, so it has no help.

Directing
Best Director and Best Picture awards are rarely given to the same film. This year will be no different. Peter Jackson did a fine job, and although I disagree, he will win Best Director, removing the impetus to award lord of the rings: Return of the king with the Best Picture award. For more info on why I switched from Sofia Coppola to Peter Jackson, see the notes in the continued section.

Genre
I simply don't think a fantasy/sci-fi film can win a Best Picture Academy Award. None of the (admittedly) loosely defined 'fantasy/sci-fi' films nominated for Best Picture have ever won. Not the previous two Lord of the Rings (2001, 2002), nor Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000), The Sixth Sense (1999), The Green Mile (1999), Field of Dreams (1989), E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982), Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), or Star Wars (1977). Not even a real stretch like A Clockwork Orange (1971) has won. This year won't be different.

I have updated and revised (with notes as to why) my predicitons below. If I am wrong I fully expect to be given a 'ha-ha'. But I don't think I will.

John Kerry's comments today didn't exactly endear him to voters in the South.

"Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own."

"I think the fight is all over this country," Kerry said. "Forget about those red and blue states. We're going to change that now, and we're going to go out there and change the face of America."

NASA confirmed this morning that it had asked the Justice Department to launch an investigation of Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Investigating the loss of signal from the Mars rover, NASA scientists discovered a spike in the rover's communication equipment. Further tests conmfirmed that the timing of the spike was consistent with an unusual blast from Iowa.

NASA alleges that Dean's "AAYYYYYYGHHHHH!" comment in his post-election speech following a poorer than expected showing in the Iowa democratic caucuses, was of enough intensity and at a high enough volume to disrupt the internal communications equipment on the Mars rover.

"(Dean's) comment and way he presented it was completely out of character with his normal calm and respectful persona", Pete Theisinger, Mars rover project manager said. "Therefore, we cannot presume any other reason than an intentional act. We have formally requested that the Justice Department lauch an invesigation." The signal loss appeared almost 36 hours after Dean's speech, coinciding with the average travel time of an Earth to Mars signal.

Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, reacted to the charges, "Howard Dean has the utmost respect for NASA and the Mars rover project. We believe it was the work of the Democatic Leadership Council in cahoots with Haliburton in order to deny Mr. Dean his rightful nomination."

One of the joys of sharing a house with someone in law enforcement is that you hear about really dumb and sometime sadly pathetic criminals. Today's episode:

Someone with my same first and last name robbed a bank near Portland today. He was pulled over within one minute of the time he left the bank. As he was being led away, he let the officers know he had a few books that were overdue from the library. He asked to make sure they got back since was worried they may not get returned while he was in jail.

He told the arresting officers that he was under pressure from his father to do something with his life so he robbed a bank to finance his life change. Nothing like making dad proud.

Obligatory Legal Note: Everything shared here is public knowledge released to the media and in no way reflects any restricted or classified information.

I heard Gary Jules' version of Mad World for the first time on the radio yesterday as I was driving to an appointment and almost pulled over so I could listen clearly. It was mesmerizing.

Then last night as I was watching Line of Fire, it played at the end. I was captivated. Luckily I TiVo'd it so I could hear it again.

I woke up this morning and it just seemed to play all day in my head. I don't know if it was because of the day I had or the day I had was because of the song but it seemed a perfect accompaniment to how my day felt.