Sure, this may happen, but it is far from a given. Yes, Trump has a lot of room to pick up R identifiers, but I would not be surprised if there’s not around at least 20% of Republicans who truly loathe him, and absent any evidence he can actually win, will stay away. In the latest Fox Poll– in which Trump is getting hammered– 28% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of him. Sure, many of those may vote for him anyway, but, again, if Trump does not provide those people evidence he can win, why should they vote for him. In essence, you could argue that Trump needs to close the gap in the polls to win more Republicans over to him, but he cannot close the gap in the polls without winning over more Republicans. Not a sure thing, of course, but a plausible dynamic.

The caveat on Nyhan’s tweet also gets a lot of pushback “absent further campaign malpractice.” Honestly, it seems far more likely that we’ll see further horrible campaigning than that Trump will all-of-a-sudden become a normal Mitt Romney type candidate. At this point we have seen evidence after evidence that this is just who Trump is.

Will I be surprised if the current large gap in the polls shrinks? Not at all. Nor, though, do I think it is an inevitability as many are now claiming.

2 Responses to The Trump comeback to come?

I agree with you that there are at least 20% of Republicans who loathe Trump. I know many of them can’t bring themselves to vote for Hillary, but I could see them voting for Johnson or skipping the presidential vote. Trump may appeal to the segment of Republicans my dad calls ‘the bubba vote’, but there are many educated well-informed GOP voters who cannot stomach Trump.