Weather Blog: Snow Forecast Coming Into Focus

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! We continue to monitor the latest data as a storm system is developing in the Plains right now. This system will impact the weather here in southeast Wisconsin Thursday night and Friday. In today's blog we look at the timing of snow chances and discuss how much snow you can expect.

Let's start with an overview of the system. Low pressure will form over the south-central Plains early Thursday and move into eastern Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Heavy sleet or snow will fall over parts of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and southern Iowa.

The HPC surface forecast map below is valid at 6pm Thursday. This shows the bulk of the snow still west-southwest of Wisconsin. The system still appears to weaken as it nears Wisconsin, meaning a couple of things. First, the start time for snow to begin is now after midnight. Second, with the system weakening the window for steady snow looks to be narrow.

As mentioned above most of the snow should hold off until after midnight. Something we will keep a close eye on is the potential for some light lake effect snow as winds turn northeast or east. Any light lake effect would occur later Thursday evening or right before the main snow band arrives. The RPM computer model forecast below is valid at midnight showing the main snow band still to the southwest over Iowa and Illinois.

The RPM does not have the main area of light snow reaching southeast Wisconsin until after 4am Friday. This would translate to light snow throughout the morning commute and continuing on and off through about midday Friday.

Snow totals from the RPM are generally in the 2"-3.5" range as shown below.

Another model we use as guidance...the NAM, has a forecast snow total of 2.2" for Milwaukee. The GFS computer model is also closer to 2". Weather Watch 12 has consistently been forecasting 2"-4" of snow with this system. We will adjust as needed, but certainly our lower snow totals for this system have been the correct forecast so far, and trends continue to point in that direction.

A little snow on Friday would mean a chance to play in the snow this weekend! Enjoy it while you can, meteorological spring starts Friday, March 1!

For the latest snowfall forecast watch WISN 12 News, and for updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather