The exchange of prisoners held on the eve of the New Year demonstrated that people from all regions of Ukraine fight with the nationalist regime in Kiev. Kiev is preparing to begin active hostilities in the Donbass in the second half of January. About this observer of the "Political Navigator" Valentin Filippov told adviser to the head of the DNR Alexander Kazakov .

Valentin Filippov : Alexander, hello. Congratulations on the New Year that has come all the same ...

Alexander Kazakov : Thank you. In fact, I am happy about the coming new year that the previous one ended, and I'm not a mystic, but the century of the October Revolution somehow strained.

Valentin Filippov : On the eve of the holidays, there was a big exchange of prisoners, Ukraine again nahimichila. Among the liberated - militia real, people from the Donbass, - twenty percent, I understand correctly? Tell me why all the time there is a conversation about the conflict between Donbass and Ukraine, they say that "Kiev should begin a direct dialogue with the Donbass", or something else ... It seems to me that the whole Ukraine is at war with Kiev, probably?

Alexander Kazakov : Yes, if you look at this side, then yes. I already noted in connection with the exchange of comments of some experts are very sensible, that during the exchange the citizens of Ukraine exchanged citizens of Ukraine. What confirms the fact that the war is civil, and not what kind of an external enemy.

And if you look from the side that you propose then yes, of course, we have political prisoners in our lists from all over Ukraine, absolutely. And there really are less militiamen. It is a well-known fact that we have many political prisoners on our lists.

And we issue mostly prisoners of war, we have one or two people on the lists who were accused of espionage, subversive, against the republic, and they were also transferred. And so, basically, all the servicemen who were captured on the battlefield with weapons in their hands.

Valentin Filippov : I recently saw sociology. In Ukraine, 62% against the war in the Donbass, against the policy of Kiev. Can not you consider that these 62% is this exchange fund, which Ukraine will use further? That is, you are not afraid that you will be taken by another twenty million hostages, prisoners, claiming that they are "saboteurs, agents of Putin." Do you collect so many prisoners of the Ukrainian military to exchange this all?

Alexander Kazakov : This is only a matter of proportion, we will change one for a thousand. But if you look at this situation without humor, then ... every joke has a joke, as they say ... We seriously consider this situation, but not in the form of hostages, which Kiev will seize and exchange with us, but, for example, as refugees, and, for example, , refugees, perhaps even economic ones.

Valentin Filippov : Well, I understand that your economy is real, and in Ukraine - what will be asked.

Alexander Kazakov : In fact, there is still at least one aspect of the economic. It belongs to the category of basic parameters that must be taken into account in any assessments.

In Ukraine now, and Kiev recognizes it, the process of deindustrialization of the country is going on. They say: "We do not need this industry, it's old ...". They have a process of de-industrialization, and we have the opposite. The Republic stated that it will be an industrial republic, and we are restoring enterprises, mines and so on. These are completely multidirectional processes.

Valentin Filippov : All previous years in Ukraine the concept of "post-industrial era" was pronounced with aspiration. This whole strategy was. They say: "Now, we will close all these plants, and here we will have a park, we will walk along it."

Alexander Kazakov : A very specific perception of the post-industrial economy. That is, it is necessary to eliminate the entire industrial economy.

Valentin Filippov : Yes. "Why are we reaching for Russia? Because we do not need these plants. Let's close these plants that we do not need, and we will immediately find ourselves in Europe, because we will no longer be attracted to Russia. "

Alexander Kazakov : I'll tell you one thing. Those people who were preparing the modern Bandera Ukraine in Kiev, they did not communicate with those people. Well, for example, and this is now officially known, they are advised by representatives of the Baltic states, the Baltic countries. And among other things they told how remarkably they went into post-industrial status. A simple example, as I was there at the time and saw it. Let's say, let's take Latvia. Latvia was one of the most industrial republics of the Soviet Union. There was such hi-tech, which in the Union was nowhere else. The Alpha plant produced space technologies, the Kommunar plant produced satellite ... It was very cool everything, radio engineering, electronics and so on ...

Valentin Filippov : VEF Receiver

Alexander Kazakov : VEF, yes, Radiola, Spidola ... well, this is, in fact, what was for the consumer, and there were serious production related to space and defense.

So, as they passed into the post-industrial era. They, therefore, first closed all the plants, now in most of them shopping centers or warehouses. Recently they showed how the walls of the Radiotekhnika factory are being broken, because they do not know what to do with him, and he was just producing this radio equipment for ordinary citizens of the Soviet Union.

And the most important thing is that later consultants from Latvia told the future Bandera people that after they liquidated the whole industry, they had the European Union and said: "So, guys, and we do not need your agriculture." When the Latvians asked: "Excuse me, but then what will we have left? We destroyed the industry, leaving the agriculture ... ". They say, "No, no, no. Everything will be fine. We do not need your products in our markets. Therefore ... "- and here attention! - "... we will pay money to each owner of the land for the fact that he will not grow anything there."

That is, if, for example, a farmer takes his land out of a farm and declares it to be a meadow where the horses graze, he was paid almost 200-250 euros per month per hectare so that he does not do anything. When they told this to the Ukrainians, the future Banderites, they said: "So this is happiness, here is communism. We do not do anything ... and there were one and a half or two million of them, and then we had thirty ... that's what the Europeans will pay us, so that they do not take our wheat there ... ".

Valentin Filippov : And if our factories do not smoke, and we will be paid under the Kyoto Protocol for every cubic meter of smoke that has not been thrown away ... it can be climbed like that.

Alexander Kazakov : I think that at the heart of these crazy decisions of Kiev is the significant fault of unreliable and misinterpreted information. The same Latvians and Estonians still offer, this is a real story, they come to Kiev and say: "Do you know what to do with the inhabitants of Donbass? We will tell. The same thing that we did with the Russians in 1991. We declared them non-citizens. They are Latvian and Estonian non-citizens. They have a status - this is written in one word "non-citizen". And passports are issued by non-citizens, of a different color. And when, for example, in Russia in the 2000s, Putin declared to Latvians or Estonians "You discriminate against our compatriots" - "They are not your compatriots. They are our "non-citizens". They now offer the same thing to Kiev and periodically this idea appears in the public space "What to do with this Donbass?".

Valentin Filippov : This idea appeared as long as I can remember. Then they said "Do you want to face?" - "Okay, everything, I'm silent." But now this idea somehow does not pass.

Valentin Filippov : Well, let's make some bloodthirsty judgments then. Where are our Ilovaysky and Debaltsevo already closer to the Dnieper? I do not understand how long this can last. Well, it goes too far, stretches, stretches ... The end should be this all? Everybody says "World of Donbass". What peace without victory?

Alexander Kazakov : And what will be considered Victory in the Donbass? Because all in the Donbass say: "We will not agree without the Victory Day." Question: "And what will be considered a Victory?". What will residents agree with, who suffer and suffer for three and a half years, which they themselves recognize as Victory?

I will propose three options. I can not say for sociology, although I lie, I can. It's just a sociology that we do not publish. One option, the most obvious one, is the restoration of the territorial integrity of the Donetsk People's Republic ...

Valentin Filippov : Within the borders of the region

Alexander Kazakov : I remind you, de-jure territory of the proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic is the territory where the referendum was held. The referendum was held throughout the territory of the former Donetsk region, and this is the whole territory. That is, the restoration of territorial integrity, the withdrawal, of course, of the aggressor's troops across the border of the region, and from there they do not reach any city. Neither to Slavyansk, nor to Mariupol, nor, especially, to Donetsk, and fixing there a new border. A very large number of residents of the Donetsk People's Republic will consider this a Victory, and this day they will be ready to celebrate as the second Victory Day after the 9th of May.

But not all. Not a large, already smaller, part of the inhabitants of the People's Democratic Republic of Ukraine are ready to consider Victory, when the anti-human Bandera regime will be liquidated in Kiev. This does not mean that they are ready to support our expansion into Ukraine. But even if the Donetsk Republic will be within its borders, as long as this black bastard is sitting on that side in Kiev, people will not feel victory. Because in fact, the war will remain permanent. While on this side these are sitting - the war will not end.

Therefore, common sense and historical logic indicate that it is necessary, as in the 45th year, to destroy the Nazis in their lair. In this case, we agree that the lair is in Kiev, and not in Washington.

But, in fact, people with strategic thinking perfectly understand that even the restoration of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics within their borders and the all-round strengthening of the border and even recognition by the Russian Federation and those countries in the world that will take it with understanding - and so on , and so on, the war will only be postponed anyway.

Without victory, the world is impossible. If all of us are forced to stop resistance and stop fighting, then we will cover this war, as a constantly sore wound, with a cloth so that it can not be seen. The war will resume in a day, in two, in a month, in a year, in ten. And it will be even more terrible because Ukraine was not ready for this war. No army, no state, no people. They refused to shoot, it was necessary to release the criminals, so that they started shooting at civilians, because the soldiers of the Ukrainian army refused to do so. And by the next war, by the next iteration they will be ready.

They will have people, as in the Wehrmacht they brought up these little Nazis, trained them to make dogs choke, the cats were torn off their heads. They will educate these people. They will have weapons - they were not ready and in arms. Why are they begging for weapons for the third year? They do not have it. And they will have it. And the war here on this same earth will be ten times worse.

Valentin Filippov : Why on the same land? Ukraine, by and large, is at war with Russia, what prevents it ... Why Donetsk must be taken? Can we take Belgorod, Bryansk, why not?

Alexander Kazakov : Well, you're right ...

Valentin Filippov : Especially if Putin is a "universal evil", if Russia is a "terrorist country and a universal outcast," which does not give anyone anything to live, and "Ukraine would long ago prosper if Russia did not commit meanness for meanness." What prevents to seize pregnant women somewhere in Budyonovsk and demand from Putin that he resign ...

Alexander Kazakov : Not in Budyonovsk, but in Belgorod.

There is one problem here that you can be sure of by looking at the map. If the dill ... that's it, not the Ukrainians, but these, Banderaers ... if they try to make a march to Belgorod and Voronezh, I know who will hit them in the rear. We. They can not bypass us from any side. Neither in the Crimea, nor in the northern provinces in relation to us, nor, especially, in those behind our backs. They can not bypass us and move to Russia, they must first destroy the Donbas. If they try to get around it, we'll hit them in the rear, and we know that they will not seem to be a little bit. That's why I say that here this war will be next time, just here. There are scoundrels, but not fools.

Valentin Filippov : Well, we somehow zaboltali, and I asked: "Are we going to move to the Dnieper this year?". Again, I repeat, I do not know how people will tolerate this, this time.

And the second, you talked about the economy. So that's it. This blockade ... sell coal through Russia ... Yes, I know that we are increasing our export of coal and export of metal, somehow this is all through South Ossetia.

You'll excuse me, but Novorossiysk is already choking. I understand that Novorossiysk overloads cargo more than all 14 Ukrainian ports combined ... But Odessa is needed, there is a deep-water port with all the capacities ... There are three ports. As Russia is going to develop further, if not to get Odessa, and to it a corridor, and there still, sorry, Transnistria suffocates in blockade, it must be unlocked.

That's what would not say about the Crimea clever ... "Oh, we will build a bridge ... Oh, here, like, we have enough water." Yes, there is enough water, drinking. And in the northern Crimea? And Kherson, again, is actually our people and our land. And Nikolayev - there shipyards!

And being each in its place, that is, without trying to decide for other people.

So, look, in relation to the territories to the west of the DNR in relation to these territories, two subjects are interested in the eastern side. The first subject is Donetsk, because there is its territory. And the territory, remember at least the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog republic, which was at least economically justified like no other state in the world. And this is a little wider.

And the second entity that is interested in these territories is Russia, including for the reasons that you just told. And in fact, if not solve the problem of Ukraine, then the US missile installations will stand on the border of the Voronezh region.

Nobody doubts this. But I suggest that we divide these two subjects. As for the Donetsk People's Republic, in our hands now there are no political tools for reformatting the territory west of us. Because we are not subjects of international law for the time being. We have no political tools.

What tools do we have? We have an instrument, first of all, a military one, and Ukraine knows what it is like with us, it has already faced it, plus an economic one. Because even during the blockade ...

You are speaking there "... South Ossetia", but, in fact, Zakharchenko is telling the truth, and Timofeev, by the way, confirmed that more than 50 countries of the world interact with the DNR. Just very special special ways. But the loss of one or two days is not a problem.

So, military tools - once, economic instruments - two, this is what is in our hands, the hands of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In the hands of the Russian Federation, in the hands of Russia these same instruments are a thousand times more powerful, a thousandfold. At the same time, economic instruments are much more variable than ours. That is, the border with Ukraine can be closed for some goods, for others to open. That is, to manipulate the economy of Ukraine by closing the opening of the border, at the expense of customs duties, stopping supplies or stopping purchases, how it was with salt, and so on.

And most importantly, what we do not have is a political tool that Russia has. Today Russia solves the problem, in comparison with the Donetsk People's Republic, much more. For Donetsk, the problem is to survive, restore territorial integrity, provide first a decent, and then a high standard of living for our citizens and develop normally. Because the restoration of territorial integrity implies, for a second, one more runway in Kramatorsk and another port in Mariupol. We will have no problems with the passage of the Crimean bridge.

Valentin Filippov : There, in my opinion, the port has already become covered at all, and such a reconstruction will be needed there that I do not know ...

Alexander Kazakov : It's still cheaper than doing the same port in Novoazovsk.

Valentin Filippov : There are not enough depths in Novoazovsk.

Alexander Kazakov : All the more so.So, the Russian problem as compared with the Donetsk People's Republic of radically more complex and higher. Because Russia today is engaged in, and is a key player in the reconstruction of the world for a second. That is, create different groups of influence and pressure, where members of these groups are the state and even groups of states. To move from a unipolar world to a more just world order.

Against the background of this problem ... Donetsk People's Republic takes, of course, your place, be sure to take, because here we have a hot spot, we are talking war. That is, these points were two, and now actually left alone, because Syria, where the fire as it decays.

It is due to the fact that there is a hot spot and open war, armed conflict, of course, Donetsk Republic takes place in the solution of global problems of Russia. But the number of other parameters are so great that, for example, in Donetsk, we often even count them can not, and as for the inhabitants of the Donetsk People's Republic, they do not want it to count. And they have the right not to want.

Valentin Filippov : Well, no, there are tactical problems, but there are strategic. To build a multipolar world instead of a unipolar - it is a strategic task. And there are tactical problems. You know, you can build a multi-polar world is great, and then it turns out that he does not need anyone nafig. Odessa's population at that time can be replaced, and teach all to grow canola.

Alexander Kazakov : No, stop, unrolling the tape a little bit ago. I agree with the formulation of the question that there are strategic goals, and is like a local.

But, but ... you just have a question about a different way to deliver. The strategic tasks, which has set itself the Russian Federation, Ukraine is present or not? It does not just present, and one of the central places.

Valentin Filippov : And she can not attend?

Alexander Kazakov : It is present on one of the central places because without the return of Ukraine in the normal, healthy condition and networking, at least, as a minimum, with all its neighbors, without tearing Ukraine from American Tits, Russia's strategic plan will not take place.

Because it will be the underbelly of the very missiles and even the army, which will feed, teach, equip. Therefore, a strategic task that confronts a Russian, is directly dependent on the decision of the Ukrainian problem. Not the Donetsk People's Republic, we have a problem is solved, and the Ukraine.

In fact, the key question now is another. Over the last few months ... is worsening in December, a serious aggravation ... for all sensible people it is obvious that the Ukrainian side is preparing for war. That is, more precisely, for the next campaign. Two, they have already lost, they are preparing for the next one.

This operational intelligence information, this information from our volunteers on the other side, which is almost the entire population. I once joked, but it's not a joke, we know about the MAT and punitive battalions more than they know about themselves.

First - this is intelligence information. The second.The conclusion from this information. Namely, the concentration at certain points boundary line significant fuel stocks. Reserves in excess of current needs of Ukrainian army and destroyer battalions. Significantly exceeding. Reduction of iron-road ways and summarizing even working branches in places where they are not needed for the economy.

Plus, the deployment on that side of the military field hospitals. We know of three, maybe they have more. Under the one redone clinic, people kicked out, more or less the same administrative buildings. Imported medicines, a very specific line. This all suggests that they are not going there to defend themselves, it is not necessary for the defense.

When we put them serious damage, I remember in the south in May, they received a very cool, there were several hundred dead on the other side ... so they were transported, the pancake smeared all over Ukraine. In Odessa there ... In Odessa write that came collars ... They smeared across Ukraine. You do not need a hospital.

Therefore, the first - it is intelligence information. Second - political logic. As the situation political in Kiev, has been deadlocked, comes into this dead end, more and more. To unleash this situation, Poroshenko has to find unusual and perpendicular to the exit. This output is for him - the war, the military campaign.

And this output is immediately reversible. Firstly, it switches the attention of people, and, secondly, he thinks he makes a gift to the Americans, because we have the same choices at all. And during the election campaign in Russia suddenly begin a military campaign, which somehow try to involve Russia.

That is, it is a move that is politically normal and natural for him. And, besides, we can not ignore the opinion of opponents, and in the public space periodically skips such a thing as their experts assess the chances of Ukraine ... they say openly: they have two windows in which to solve the problem of Donbass is most convenient. The first window - this election campaign Putin, the second window - the World Cup. Because during the World Cup, Russian tanks will likely not go to Ukraine.

I just remind you that the Public leaked information about the correspondence between Klitschko and Tyagnibok - whether 18, whether 19 February 2014.. In correspondence to one another, saying, "We have to do everything quickly, until February 23rd, otherwise nothing happens." They had, on February 23, ended the Sochi Olympics. Ie specialists themselves on the side of the enemy appreciate these windows as promising and possible solutions for the problems of Donbass.

Plus a third, no, fourth factor and a very serious - it's the weather. Today in Donetsk rain. But by Christmas, and especially to our Baptism meteorologists promise frost and snow.

Valentin Filippov : I mean, do not get bogged down

Alexander Kazakov : Yes, at the end of December we passed our test site and saw the tank tracks. They were, in principle, on the surface, but only one tank, the next is already tied. We appreciate this weather too. Therefore, on the basis of all this, the best start of the military campaign on the part of Ukraine - the second half of January.

Valentin Filippov : If podmerznet

Alexander Kazakov : Yes, provided the weather.

Valentin Filippov : Well, God forbid, that you were not mistaken, that they have finally begun and that it was decided to ...

Alexander Kazakov : You are what you say? God forbid, to start full-scale war?

Valentin Filippov : Yes, began full-scale hostilities. All go.

Alexander Kazakov : It's hundreds and then thousands of dead.

Valentin Filippov : Well, yes, but otherwise not. You know, we are in the 91st to children already laid ...

Alexander Kazakov : No, no, do not, I do not agree to talk about it even

Valentin Filippov : Sasha is now at the front of the boys die, which for twenty years. These are our children. This is what we in the '91 decided to disperse peacefully. So what? And children have shifted. Well, so, let another grandchildren shift? Well, it can still crush the vermin?

Alexander Kazakov : I agree. But if we use the formula "God forbid", then this formula I am ready to use in only one version. "God forbid that they collapsed there, scattered, disappeared ...".

Valentin Filippov : No, it does not happen. Needless nothing happens.

Alexander Kazakov : Asking for war do not need God.

Valentin Filippov : Okay, we will not.

Alexander Kazakov : He nasyplet so that will not find it. For our sins.

Valentin Filippov : Okay. I'm on this positive note, I want to say thank you again and Happy New Year, and really wish Donbass Victory.

So much hysteria against the clear civil society activist action against American military occupier wannabes. Poor little America,it sees endless freedom and human rights in Saudi Arabia, but Crimeans have no right to resist the butchers in Kiev. FOAD, yank trash.

BTW, there are no legal documents of the official transfer of Crimea to Ukraine in 1953 by Khruschev. It was 100% by verbal decree ofKhruschev. He broke USSR law and no amount of British common law can legalize the transfer. Recall how NATO promised Gorbachevto not expand eastward. Of course this promise was broken and the excuse is that it was not written on paper. Well, right back at you,NATO twerps. There are no papers giving Ukraine legal possession of Crimea.

JohninMK wrote:Interesting picture clearly put up by Ukrops. They have left the printing of the weapon type clear but masked all the serial number etc area. Why would they do that?

Because the Ukrops are getting RPG rockets from Bulgaria among other ammunition, that's why. They depleted their stockpiles of small arms and ammo selling them abroad, a lot of stuff went to the Syrian war and now they are begging for scraps in Eastern Europe.

In a related theme. I am not translating this article, but I will quote a pair of excerpts.

My summary:

The ukrops are running out of ammunition for heavy artillery of 152mm caliber. They are unlikely to get a complete reequipment of their artillery park with NATO 155mm pieces. It would make much more sense simply to transfer Poland old guns and their ammo to Ukraine, but such a major rearmament would mena all out war and Russia doing the same. So in opinion of the author they are going to get a few pieces for NATO to do test under combat conditions.

DISCLAIMER: I strongly disagree on every point of this article wich reads like Ukrainian fan fiction, but is a good basis for discussion. I think these "cry wolf" articles are part of information warfare to goad Ukrops into attacking and pressure the Kremlin to step up the support of Novorussia. While I do agree with those aims, the facts as I know them disagree with the article points

If the APU will go on the attack. Konstantin Schemelinin

2018-01-09 12:28

, Antimaydan , Antimaydan Ukraine

At the end of 2017, the US approved the delivery of heavy sniper rifles Barret and anti-tank complexes Javelin to Kiev. Many experts considered this a sign that sooner or later the Ukrainian armed forces will go to Donetsk and Lugansk, having broken the truce "Minsk-2".

Consider a hypothetical version of what will happen.

First of all, the army of Ukraine has been gradually increasing all the years since 2015: Western military aid plus training made from the APU a much more powerful military machine than it was in 2014. But this military armada does not have enough shells - after 2-3 weeks of intense fighting the artillery of the APU will be silenced by itself. At the same time, the defenders of LDNR became weaker due to the fact that their ranks were abandoned by a number of motivated militiamen who took up arms in 2014.

To date, APUs are superior in strength to the LDPR Armed Forces in 3-4 or even 5 times. There is no doubt that in the future this proportion will only grow with the efforts of Western countries. Because of this, the victory of the Ukrainian army seems to be a foregone conclusion: different experts give the APU from 2 to 6-7 days to exit and blockade the border with Russia, and then - for a maximum of a month Donbass will be stripped of all who resist Kyiv.

The troops of LDNR at the front are thus located: near the confrontation line - small, weakly armed detachments, and in the distance - the most powerful units. This arrangement will allow the attacking troops of Ukraine to easily delve into tens of kilometers, bypassing large urban agglomerations, but at the same time the APU opens flanks, which will act as the main forces of defenders of Donbass, reinforced by tanks. It is in these circumstances that the Javelins will allow the infantry of the Ukrainian army to successfully resist the Donets and Lugansk armored columns, making victory over the VSN troops even easier.

But the insurgent Donbas is only part of the problem for Russia: the main problem is Ukraine itself, its desire for NATO and the real likelihood that US nuclear missiles aimed at Moscow can be deployed somewhere in the Sum or Chernigov area. Based on this understanding of the geopolitical situation, the Russian Federation will not be able to stay out of the way, if suddenly the APU will go on a large-scale offensive on LDPR.

If we recall how the war in South Ossetia developed in August 2008, then, by analogy with them, the war in the Donbass can well develop like this:

1) Early morning of the first day.

Most likely, the attack of the APU on LDNR will begin in the early morning. In the battle will be thrown huge forces - about 100 thousand people, hundreds of tanks and other military equipment. One should not expect any gradual increase in the level of tension - in a very calm, almost peaceful time, a full-scale war will suddenly begin. Considering the past experience of the defenders fighting in the Donbass during all sorts of exacerbations of the type of fighting in late February - early January 2017, this powerful blow is likely to catch the militias by surprise.

2) Morning.

The army of Ukraine will successfully advance; front lines of defense will be LDPR or surrounded, or destroyed; and the main LDNR forces will be in a hurry to prepare for the performance. In general, the front of defense in the LNR and the NDP will collapse and a maneuver war will begin. It was at this time in Moscow that a decision would be made to launch an operation to compel Ukraine to peace.

3) About noon.

The main forces of the defenders of Donbass will join the battle. The battles will acquire momentum, attacks and counterattacks will mix everything into a single mess, which is not easily understood even at headquarters. Around the same time, Moscow will begin an operation to force Kiev to peace: most likely, initially it will be aviation and missile strikes on the advancing troops of the Ukrainian army. The first attacks are likely to be carried out on the air defense complexes of Ukraine with missiles of the Iskander and Caliber type, and then the front-line aviation of the Russian Federation will join the battle.

4) The end of the first day.

By the end of the day, Ukraine's troops will penetrate deeply into the lands of the insurgent regions. The media will be full of messages and analyzes. Countries of the Western world will threaten Russia with new sanctions, and the US will say that they are ready to send their soldiers to help Kyiv.

5) The night before the second day.

Those who make decisions will think, argue, plan and be nervous.

6) The second day is a fork.

6.1) The army of Ukraine leaves: Kiev decides to return to the line of confrontation. The conflict has been exhausted, but Russia is receiving new sanctions from the West, which will be responded by its anti-sanctions. This is a plausible option.

6.2) The army remains, but it does not go ahead: Kiev decides to stop the offensive, but will not retreat to the original front line: in this case, LDNR will be split into several parts. This is an extremely unlikely option, since a full-scale war will not end with this, but will only be postponed for several days.

6.3) The army of Ukraine is moving forward towards the Russian-Ukrainian border. This is the most realistic option, as the victory of Kiev is already close. In what follows, we shall only consider it.

7) The second day is a continuation.

The Russian Federation accumulates forces in the Rostov region, strengthens the border with Ukraine, but does not enter the territory of Ukraine, while Russia is also attacking the APU with front-line aviation. Rockets are unlikely to be used, because they are few, and rockets must be protected.

About the third or fifth day.

Significant sections of the border between Russia and Ukraine are occupied by the APU, many defenders of the Donbass battle in the environment, in Kiev they are preparing to celebrate the victory. We are beginning to talk in the media about the imminent entry of the AFU troops into the territory of the Crimea. The intensity of Russian aviation operations is increasing. In Moscow, a decision is made to use ground forces directly on the territory of Ukraine.

9) About the sixth or seventh day.

The entry into the fighting in the Donbass, most likely, the 8th Army of the RF Ministry of Defense. Russia strikes "Calibers" and "Iskander" deep into the territory of Ukraine, including goals in Kiev; The strategic aviation of the Russian Federation and the forces of the Black Sea Fleet are also beginning to be used.

The situation in LDNR becomes unclear: who wins - it is not clear. There is no official war between Russia and Ukraine.

10) The second week of fighting - a new fork.

10.1) Kiev is ready to stop the war, negotiations, armistice, armies are beginning. As a result, the line of confrontation will turn out to be such that the large cities of Donbass (first of all, Donetsk) will be far from the front line, and Donetsk residents, like the Lugansk citizens, will be spared from firing by the APU in the future.

It is possible that the new border between Ukraine and LDNR will lie on the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The Russian Federation probably soon recognizes independent DPR and LC, but they are not recognized in the world. The sanctions war of the Russian Federation with the West will resume, but Russia, now officially, at the request of the leadership of the unrecognized Donbas republics, will deploy troops in the territories of the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of China. It is unlikely, but it is possible for DNR and ЛНР to enter Russia according to the results of referenda, which the main countries of the world do not recognize.

This is the most realistic option for completing the APU attack on LDNR.

Unclear results may be the subsequent economic flowering of Donbass and hyperinflation in Ukraine.

10.2) Kiev is preparing for general mobilization.

The situation finally goes beyond the local conflict in the Donbass. The Russian Federation will start preparing its armed forces for war: probably, the number of troops allocated for actions in the Ukrainian direction will reach 200-300 thousand soldiers; and, most likely, the 1st Panzer Army will act on the direction of the main attack. To the surprise of many, the war between Russia and Ukraine will also not be announced. This option looks less realistic than the first.

There is no indication of any qualitative improvement in the Kiev regime "army". It is still a hodge-podge of paramilitaries and underpaidand demoralized regular forces. It is clear that the Kiev regime is using the military activity in the Donbass as a distraction from thecollapsing economic situation in the parts of the country it controls. Its policies of cutting off trade with Russia are basically suicide and NATO is not eager to send charity to fill the gap. This talking up of some big push to solve the "separatist problem" are purepropaganda BS. No amount of sniper rifles and Javelin missiles can make a difference in this conflict. The yapping would have youbelieve that these weapons are something new on the battlefield. They aren't and superior variants of anti-tank missiles have beenused already (Kornet). There is no magic from the sniper rifles that would turn Kiev's punitive thug "army" into an effective fighting force.

Kiev, 10 January. The European Union will stop allocating tranches of macroeconomic assistance to Ukraine, said Director of the Institute for Political Analysis and International Studies Sergei Tolstov, speaking at a press conference in Kiev.

"There will be no more European money in Ukraine. Most likely, there will be no IMF tranches either. I do not imagine such a crisis deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, which would force the European Commission to take a decision in spite of all the decisions and directives approved by it. They formally have no right to do so. They will be torn apart by their own opposition, "Tolstov said.

He recalled that the conditions on which Ukraine allocated macroeconomic assistance were officially fixed by decisions of both the Council of the European Union and the European Council. Consequently, Tolstov noted, Kiev should not wait for new tranches in the framework of loans for macroeconomic assistance. The expert stressed that counting on economic support from the US at Trump Ukraine is also not worth it, as Eurobonds under US Treasury guarantees ceased with the departure of Barack Obama as president.

According to the analyst, the lack of external financial assistance can lead to a default in the Ukrainian economy in the Argentine scenario.

A default will actually end up helping Ukraine in the long run like it did Russia. But as well, it will hurt them in short term because what they could sell off, they already did. It would also be saving Grace for LNR/DNR cause it would mean that Ukraine cannot afford to pay for it's military.

The-thing-next-door wrote:What will happen if the ukropian empire suffers a complete economic collapse?

The Banderite regime does not have the support of most Ukrainians. That is why it spends so much time engaged inrepression (people can do hard jail time for accusing the government of corruption) and trying to seed hate againstRussia by claiming Russia is "occupying" the Donbass and "stole" Crimea. Too bad for these maggots, but their hate and fear is not a substitute for prosperity. Ukraine is basically de-industrializing and its real middle class isbeing pauperized. At some stage there will be a "phase transition" where a real revolution will sweep the Banderitesfrom power.

I hope Russia does everything in its power to lubricate this revolution.

miketheterrible wrote:A default will actually end up helping Ukraine in the long run like it did Russia. But as well, it will hurt them in short term because what they could sell off, they already did. It would also be saving Grace for LNR/DNR cause it would mean that Ukraine cannot afford to pay for it's military.

Or it could start a war.

Or the downfall of the Maidan regime. Those NGOs, internet propaganda and deep state/paramilitary groups aint gonna pay for themselves. They need cash which will run out in they default.

The leader of the Ukrainian opposition party Movement of New Forces and former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has said he was questioned on Tuesday as a witness in the case concerning the so-called participation of some Georgian snipers in the shootings at Independence Square in central Kyiv in early 2014.

"This is a Russian story alleging that I, while president of Georgia, ordered that snipers be sent here to shoot people at Maidan. But I wasn't president of Georgia at the time, and I came here as a private person," he told journalists after the questioning on Wednesday.

"There have been no Georgian snipers, there are actors hired by Russia, GRU officers or some other spies, and the Italian channel prompted by Russian propaganda broadcast a news story about this. Ukraine is currently checking these facts, and resources are being used to verify the facts of Russian propaganda. My advice for them is: it's necessary simply to catch those who shot people at Maidan. I am sure most of these people are in Ukraine. Perhaps they even work for these institutions," Saakashvili said, pointing at the Security Service building.

Oh dear, if true then, in terms of the type and quality of arms provided, Ukraine has been relegated to the status of terrorists.

Friday, January 12, 2018 - 16:26

This is reported by Ukrainian media with reference to a representative of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"The United States will provide Ukraine with TOW anti-tank complexes, not Javelin," he said.

At the same time, the military added that the Azov regiment, which is part of the National Guard (Ministry of Internal Affairs), would not get the American weapon and cannot have anti-tank systems (ATGMs) supplied from the US.

"Press reports that there may be American Javelin ATGMs in the regiment of the Azov, belonging to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, are untrue," the source assured.

In addition, he explained that the procedure for the supply of arms to Ukraine can last up to one year.

miketheterrible wrote:A default will actually end up helping Ukraine in the long run like it did Russia. But as well, it will hurt them in short term because what they could sell off, they already did. It would also be saving Grace for LNR/DNR cause it would mean that Ukraine cannot afford to pay for it's military.

Or it could start a war.

Or the downfall of the Maidan regime. Those NGOs, internet propaganda and deep state/paramilitary groups aint gonna pay for themselves. They need cash which will run out in they default.

That can be paid for in "promises", "useful idiot Nazi volunteers" and selling land/assets or trade

Poroshenko fulfilled his promise to strengthen the grouping in the Donbass by a sophisticated method

War in Ukraine

2018-01-13 10:00

The next exacerbation in the Donbass in its own way is original, because it is connected with the strange redeployment of the forces of the APU. At the same time, the Ukrainian grouping is clearly increasing, as promised by Peter Poroshenko shortly before the New Year. Everything is not as scary as it may seem, however, one of the sectors of the front really inspires fears.

This year, the so-called New Year and Christmas truce in the Donbass was very poorly observed. Up to January 10, the number of firing on both the Donetsk and Lugansk directions steadily decreased compared to, say, last November.

These figures are, of course, conditional. For example, the territory of the People's Democratic Republic for the first week of the new year was shelled 17 times, ЛНР - five times, and each bombing is dangerous, but all the same, reducing pressure on the people's republics is obvious. Another thing is that the time of the New Year holidays was accompanied by a sharp increase in the activity of Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance, primarily various types of unmanned aerial vehicles. In turn, the VSN reconnaissance showed that this period was used for regrouping forces, delivering reinforcements and moving individual batteries.

As a result of all these manipulations, immediately after the end of the "truce," the situation in the key sectors of the fronts sharply deteriorated. In addition, the balance of forces in the southern, so-called Mariupol direction, has changed.

According to the initial plans of the Ukrainian command, the 28th separate mechanized brigade, which keeps the front to the north of Mariupol near Volnovaha, at the end of January should be replaced by rotation of the 93rd ombre, which for autumn and winter was taken to the rear for rest and additional equipment. But if the 93rd at the front is gradually arriving (columns and trains are easily tracked), then the 28th from the place is not going to get moving - two of its battalion-tactical groups are on the front line, one in the immediate rear.

Previously, Poroshenko said that he intends to strengthen the military grouping in the Donbass, which in fact happens by abolishing the rotation of the units. Approximately the same way, the strength of the group increased in 2015-2016, when conscripts of the first waves of mobilization were detained for an indefinite period, and professionals and contractors were not released on leave, which sometimes led to riots. Now, in fact, the rotation of the entire brigade has been abolished, and the number of the Ukrainian grouping in the Volnovaha area is doubling overnight.

This is not good, and with this you need to do something.

At the same time, the activity of the advanced 59th separate motorized infantry brigade (OMPBR) sharply increased under Mariupol, which often began to use tactical reconnaissance and drones. Of course, they are periodically knocked down, but in general the situation in this direction looks menacing. The sharp strengthening of the Ukrainian group and active intelligence there usually lead to provocations and battles on a local scale. And for the first time in a long period, the Sakhanka settlement was subjected to shelling - one of the key tactical maneuvers on the southern front.

On already familiar "hot" areas for the entire period of "truce" was characterized by the movement of battalion artillery groups APU. OSCE observers behind these movements simply can not keep up - all this is very similar to the game of thimbles on the principle of "guess where the gun is now." The OSCE, after all, does not fix the presence of a battery on the front in any position, on the contrary, the observers recount the presence of heavy weapons in the specified locations of storage in the trunks. That is, people in white form come to the rear hangar, remove the seal and believe: here on the papers of two years ago there should be eight howitzers, and there are seven. One went somewhere. The shortage is fixed. This is the essence of the mission. And where the howitzer went, when and why - it does not concern them.

According to the latest report, the OSCE only missed the Lugansk area in the places where the AFU was stored eight 152-mm D-20 towed howitzers, five 152-mm towed howitzers-B, six 122-mm towed D-30 "Frog" howitzers, ten 120-mm mortars M120 and 2B11, four tanks T-64 and T-72, seven 100-mm anti-tank guns MT-12 Rapier, six 85 mm anti-tank guns D-48. At the same time, "new arrivals" to the front of the OSCE do not record at all, as there are no replenishments in the list that they received in their hands two years ago.

Search for a new location of the "missing" equipment is already in Lugansk - by experience. Thus, the "Frogs" were discovered in Popasnaia as part of the 54th Mech Brigade. There, at the railway depot, there were two automatic control systems "Carnation". Eight tanks were stationed near the village of Dmitrovka in the Novoaydarsky district and were assigned to the tank company of the 80th separate assault brigade (ODDR). A "Rapier" - on the positions of the 10th separate mountain-assault brigade (OGSBR) in Novozvanovka. The mountain-shooters also found "Carnations", and in positions only eight kilometers from the front line, that is, in the immediate rear.

Why are towed anti-tank weapons placed eight kilometers from the front line? It is unlikely that the APU expect a sudden breakthrough from the side of Lugansk tanks of such depth. Who and where is teaching this? The Americans in Yavorov?

Separately, I must say about the constant movements of battalion mortar groups along the entire length of the Svetlodar arc and around the city of Donetsk. Especially distinguished were the same 10th Oghshbr and the 54th Separate Mehbrigade. They constantly relocated mortar platoons and actively improved engineering positions, in other words, dug trenches and caponiers. Particularly got all the mortar platoon of the 54th Brigade, entrenched about a kilometer from the front line and periodically from there spitting out in a semicircle along the front.

Parallel to the position of the 2nd battalion of the same brigade and the 108th battalion, brigades of mountain riflemen were actively transporting ammunition. And on January 8, a mortar platoon of mountain riflemen was actively marking something-and, through drunkenness, opened fire on the fields near Popasnaya, drove the villagers into the cellars.

In a natural way, all this resulted in a sharp aggravation of the situation on the main "hot" sectors of the fronts, as soon as the formal term of the "truce" expired. The fact is that "playing thimbles" with artillery and mortar platoons requires an adjustment. Having dug in on new positions, the Ukrainian artillerymen began to re-target targets, including populated areas on the other side of the front. As in the textbook: a certain reference or known coordinate is taken, and then - pure mathematics.

The trouble is that such highlights, as a rule, are high-rise buildings, freestanding structures and abundant technical objects such as factory towers, water pumping stations and electrical substations. Hence the rather chaotic nature of such shelling, conducted without apparent logic, without any practical result for the situation at the front, but with a great threat to the civilian population.

As a result, the number of shelling at the front from the Donetsk airport to Popasnoy increased at times. In the night from the 10th to the 11th, Gorlovka was heavily covered. On the night of the 11th to the 12th - Logvinovo, Dolomite, Spartak, the northern and western regions of Donetsk. At the front line, the positions of the Supreme Council of People's Deputies at Kalinovo and Sanzharovka were fired upon.

In almost all cases of bombardment, drones were used to correct fire. They are knocked down, but there are more and more of them, since they cost a penny, they are not equipped with especially technologically advanced equipment, and even a schoolboy from a circle of aircraft modelers can manage them. Especially in this case, the same 54th brigade was noted, occupying the whole depth of the Svetlodar arc.

At the same time, no attempts were made to switch to close combat by the APU on these sectors of the front. Even reconnaissance activity was transferred to drones (in contrast to the Mariupol line). All this is annoying, but so far it has not led to any recorded breakthrough attempts or even to the organization of local tactical operations, which over the past year have become a visiting card of the APU.

Even the weird transfer of antitank weapons into the depth of defense is evidence of attempts to fix themselves on the achieved lines, unless this is, of course, the usual tactical stupidity of individual commanders.

But the wave direction in the southern sector of the front is alarming. It was not very strong before. There, in the steppe, even in engineering terms it is quite difficult to establish a solid front with the available forces, and now the APU receives the long-awaited numerical superiority required for the classic conduct of a local offensive operation.

The skirmishes around Donetsk and on the Svetlodar arc to Gorlovka and Debaltsevo are unpleasant, but this is still a secondary phenomenon. However, it is still necessary to give such hands.

Ukraine needs international financial assistance in an amount of some $10 billion, Valeriy Chaly, deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, said.

"I would not speak about specific amounts [of financial assistance], they now remain to be determined, but it will be about a dozen billion dollars. Otherwise it will be difficult to resolve the problem," Chaly told a briefing in Kyiv on Monday.

Negotiations on this matter are currently being conducted with the IMF, the U.S. and the EU, he said. "It's not that they don't want to provide financial assistance, it's about analyzing the needed amounts," the official said.

Chaly said Western financial assistance is needed to conduct important reforms and prevent a default. Chaly said "a political decision on the international financial assistance to Ukraine now exists and the financial and economic aspects are now being determined."

Here comes the last round in the big one. This will be London upholding its Commercial Law and reputation. Ukraine's chances of winning are very low, they have already had to pay Russia's costs for the earlier Court hearings but politically they had to take it to appeal.

The start of the hearing of Ukraine's appeal against the decision of the High Court of Justice in London on Russia's lawsuit regarding the debt for $3 billion eurobonds is scheduled for January 22, 2018, the press service of the Finance Ministry of Ukraine has told Interfax-Ukraine.

The ministry said that it is expected that the appeal would be heard for four or five days. The jury could consist of Lady Justice Gloster, Lord Justice David Richards and Lord Justice Sales.

It is expected that the lawsuit will be heard in an open court session.

As reported, in December 2015, Ukraine defaulted on $3 billion in eurobonds the country had bought from Russia shortly before a change in government in Kyiv, along with $75 million in the final coupon payment. Ukraine proposed that Moscow accept the same debt restructuring terms reached with Ukraine's major commercial creditors, but Russia rejected the idea, insisting that the bond was sovereign debt. Ukraine was to clear the debt before January 1, 2016. However, Kyiv imposed a moratorium on servicing this debt in December 2015 and failed to pay a total of $3.075 billion before January 1, 2016 toward servicing and clearing the eurobonds belonging to Russia.

After that, the Russian Finance Ministry filed a lawsuit in High Court on February 17, 2016, seeking to secure repayment of the debt. The High Court ruled on March 29, 2017 to endorse a quick procedure for hearing the suit, in fact rejecting Ukraine's principal objections and agreeing that it had a debt on eurobonds. The court recognized that the transaction was a standard one, even though it was concluded in unusual circumstances. However Russia is unable to collect debt on the $3 billion eurobond until a decision is pronounced on an appeal lodged by Ukraine.