Rvalldrgg:Wellon Dowd: Wellon Dowd: Rvalldrgg: Kinda off topic, but still with all this lottery mumbo-jumbo, wouldn't there be a point where you'd be guaranteed to win the lottery if the jackpot was high enough (to make profit) and if you bought enough tickets? Isn't the overall odds 1 in 176 Million or something? So 176M (exactly for easy maths) x $3 (price of ticket, or mine at least) would be $528M, which you'd have to make back that amount after taxes, so how high would that jackpot have to be before taxes? Nearly a billion dollars?

Back when Virginia ran its own game with only 44 balls an investor syndicate tried to do that. They ran out of time to cover all the numbers but I think they might have won anyway. The state lottery made certain rule changes to discourage such activity in the future.

Another problem with that strategy is possibly having to share the prize.

Thorazine: Rvalldrgg: Kinda off topic, but still with all this lottery mumbo-jumbo, wouldn't there be a point where you'd be guaranteed to win the lottery if the jackpot was high enough (to make profit) and if you bought enough tickets? Isn't the overall odds 1 in 176 Million or something? So 176M (exactly for easy maths) x $3 (price of ticket, or mine at least) would be $528M, which you'd have to make back that amount after taxes, so how high would that jackpot have to be before taxes? Nearly a billion dollars?

The problem with covering the spread is that you are assuming you are the only winner. I'm pretty sure as ticket sales go up, the probability of multiple winners also does, significantly. I'll bet that the odds of at least one winner is close to 85% at this point. So it would be tough to get the cash prize at the values to give a significant return on the investment.

Even if you could cover the spread, how would you go about procuring the 176 million tickets?

MycroftHolmes: Rvalldrgg: Kinda off topic, but still with all this lottery mumbo-jumbo, wouldn't there be a point where you'd be guarante ...

If you are saying no other buys, then it would be the point at which the money in the pot was greater than the % of rake they take off of each ticket, times the $175 million it would take to buy all the numbers. So, if you are the only buyer, and 60% of each ticket goes in the pot, you would need a jackpot greater than 70 million (now, this does not account for taxes, which would be significant).

spidermilk:someguy945: Everyone criticizing gullible lottery players has never gambled at a casino, not even for fun, right? Right?

I don't buy lottery tickets and I actually don't gamble at casinos either. However, for some casino games your odds are WAY BETTER than the lottery. I'm talking about Craps, Blackjack, and Video Poker. Also, if you are playing for fun then who cares.

I don't really give two craps about what people wanna do with their money for fun. If you enjoy playing Powerball, go for it! I don't do it.I think most people realize it is fun to think/talk about what they'd do if they win, although their chances are very close to 0.

Yes, I think the people who tell me they have a "system" or a method of being "lucky" for any of these games are silly. Unless it is actually playing the normal 'rules' and knowing what your odds are. I had a chick describe in detail her method of playing slots the other day. She pulled three times on a machine and then moved to another one and always making the minimum bet on the minimum machine.

Craps and blackjack can be reduced down to below a 2% house advantage. I do not think that most video poker machines are nearly that generous. That being said, if you play long enough (and usually people who go to casinos play for a significant amount of time), even a 2% house advantage will kill you. For example, at 2%, the EV of $1 over 50 hands of blackjack is 36 cents. So, sitting at a casino for a couple of hours likely has a lower return than playing the lottery.

Tommy Moo:I don't understand why more people play powerball when it gets above $300 million. Do people not realize that $500 million and $100 million are exactly the same amount of money? Both are more than you can possibly spend in your entire life.

Sliding Carp:There have been cases where that strategy worked very well for groups of smart people, but in those cases they were playing smaller games (not the big Powerball and MegaMillions) and those games had very very stupid rules for the house. (IIRC the rules in the case I was thinking about guaranteed fixed payouts per ticket if the pot was big enough. Not all the math ignorance is in the customers.)

Got my offices 40 tickets in my hand right now. Figure that the 360 million, split 4 ways, minus taxes will still give me maybe $60 million. With that kind of money, I could buy the new TV I've been looking at, plus maybe a new BBQ grill.

I bought one ticket a yesterday, and plan on buying another tonight because I had a dream and actually got up and wrote the numbers down. Dumb? Sure. But it is 4 bucks and I promised the 7 year old if we won she can get a pony. We need something to dream about right now, sandy took our house away for God knows how long (month as of today) and the five kids and I need something to talk about that would be good instead of our every day BS. I want to go to Disney. Take them and stay in the castle. The 14 year old wants to go to universal for the Harry Potter ride. The 12 yr old wants to go to mit one day, so that would be paid for. The 4 and 2 yr old want blocks. Come to think of it we could probably accomplish all of this for less than a half a billion dollars. But like I said, 4 bucks to dream. Not a bad deal.

MycroftHolmes:spidermilk: someguy945: Everyone criticizing gullible lottery players has never gambled at a casino, not even for fun, right? Right?

I don't buy lottery tickets and I actually don't gamble at casinos either. However, for some casino games your odds are WAY BETTER than the lottery. I'm talking about Craps, Blackjack, and Video Poker. Also, if you are playing for fun then who cares.

I don't really give two craps about what people wanna do with their money for fun. If you enjoy playing Powerball, go for it! I don't do it.I think most people realize it is fun to think/talk about what they'd do if they win, although their chances are very close to 0.

Yes, I think the people who tell me they have a "system" or a method of being "lucky" for any of these games are silly. Unless it is actually playing the normal 'rules' and knowing what your odds are. I had a chick describe in detail her method of playing slots the other day. She pulled three times on a machine and then moved to another one and always making the minimum bet on the minimum machine.

Craps and blackjack can be reduced down to below a 2% house advantage. I do not think that most video poker machines are nearly that generous. That being said, if you play long enough (and usually people who go to casinos play for a significant amount of time), even a 2% house advantage will kill you. For example, at 2%, the EV of $1 over 50 hands of blackjack is 36 cents. So, sitting at a casino for a couple of hours likely has a lower return than playing the lottery.

For the comparison to work, you'd have to buy lottery tickets 50 times in a row, too, would you not? In that case, the odds that your money grows little wings and goes flying out of your pocket with nothing to show for it is roughly 100%. Quit white-knighting lotteries. They're the stupidest form of gambling there is. The end.

Wellon Dowd:Back when Virginia ran its own game with only 44 balls an investor syndicate tried to do that. They ran out of time to cover all the numbers but I think they might have won anyway. The state lottery made certain rule changes to discourage such activity in the future.

forgotmydamnusername:MycroftHolmes: spidermilk: someguy945: Everyone criticizing gullible lottery players has never gambled at a casino, not even for fun, right? Right?

I don't buy lottery tickets and I actually don't gamble at casinos either. However, for some casino games your odds are WAY BETTER than the lottery. I'm talking about Craps, Blackjack, and Video Poker. Also, if you are playing for fun then who cares.

I don't really give two craps about what people wanna do with their money for fun. If you enjoy playing Powerball, go for it! I don't do it.I think most people realize it is fun to think/talk about what they'd do if they win, although their chances are very close to 0.

Yes, I think the people who tell me they have a "system" or a method of being "lucky" for any of these games are silly. Unless it is actually playing the normal 'rules' and knowing what your odds are. I had a chick describe in detail her method of playing slots the other day. She pulled three times on a machine and then moved to another one and always making the minimum bet on the minimum machine.

Craps and blackjack can be reduced down to below a 2% house advantage. I do not think that most video poker machines are nearly that generous. That being said, if you play long enough (and usually people who go to casinos play for a significant amount of time), even a 2% house advantage will kill you. For example, at 2%, the EV of $1 over 50 hands of blackjack is 36 cents. So, sitting at a casino for a couple of hours likely has a lower return than playing the lottery.

For the comparison to work, you'd have to buy lottery tickets 50 times in a row, too, would you not? In that case, the odds that your money grows little wings and goes flying out of your pocket with nothing to show for it is roughly 100%. Quit white-knighting lotteries. They're the stupidest form of gambling there is. The end.

To make the comparison easy for you to understand, the EV on a $2 spent playing one hand of blackjack is $1.98. On tonight's drawing, assuming one winner, the EV is about $3.22 on a single $2 ticket. I am not white knighting lotteries in general, as they are, by and large, a bad price for the amount of return they offer. But people who dismiss all lotteries without bothering to do the math are displaying a willful ignorance.

thurstonxhowell:forgotmydamnusername: Quit white-knighting lotteries. They're the stupidest form of gambling there is. The end.

I think they are a stupid form of gambling if you go ticket crazy and you spend money you don't have on a massive amount of tickets. But for a few bucks getting a chance to change not only your life, but the lives of others, eh. It's worth it.

Cybernetic:Sliding Carp: There have been cases where that strategy worked very well for groups of smart people, but in those cases they were playing smaller games (not the big Powerball and MegaMillions) and those games had very very stupid rules for the house. (IIRC the rules in the case I was thinking about guaranteed fixed payouts per ticket if the pot was big enough. Not all the math ignorance is in the customers.)

You might be thinking of the Cash WinFall game from Massachusetts.

Yep, that's the one. Not quite the mechanism I thought I remembered, but still bad design.

someguy945:SuperNinjaToad: how much to buy every possible combination?

Wikipedia says the odds to win are about 1 in 170 million, so there are 170 million possible jackpot combos. Each combo will cost you $2, so for $340 million you can guarantee a win, but there are a few issues:

0. You don't have $340 million.1. If there is more than one winner, your winnings plummet rapidly. Even just 1 other winner and you're at a huge loss.2. Does this particular lottery game allow you to select the numbers you want? I know some games don't.3a. Taxes + lump sum penalty puts you at a net loss3b. For the annuity option, taxes + opportunity cost of not tying up the $340 million in a different investment puts you at a net loss.

ok make sense HOWEVER one has to wonder IF the pot becomes big enough someone who has $340 million can conceivably buy every combination and has more than a 50/50 chance of making a profit.

Win is a guarantee just that... will you win more than $340 million?

I assume the odds don;t increase just because the pot has. odds of winning are the same regardless.