We will leave the EU on 31 October

1. The EU has made clear it will not re open the Withdrawal Agreement and offer the 21 to 45 months delay in leaving without the Irish backstop.

2. The EU is not offering talks on delay in exit without the Withdrawal Treaty.

3. A significant number of Conservative MPs would not vote for the Withdrawal Treaty without the backstop as it contains many other undesirable features.

4. Labour shows no wish to go into coalition with pro EU Conservative Ministers should the government want to change its mind on this central policy, to get through a Withdrawal Treaty which delays and undermines Brexit.

5 Even this Parliament would not vote to revoke Article 50 and then repeal the leaving legislation, recognising that would be a provocation too far of the majority who want Brexit.

The best course remains for the UK to leave on 31 October as promised, whilst offering comprehensive free trade talks and a no tariffs exit on that date.

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263 Comments

We have to hope that JRM will manage the business of the house to avoid any change to the law and that fear of a GE resulting in a wipeout of the Conservatives by TBP will keep the PCP in line. It’s a knife edge position.

The Conservatives lost the by-election because they put forward a ‘damaged’ candidate who should have been replaced by the local association. AND the PCP still don’t seem to have adequate plans in place to leave the EU on WTO terms, in short, CREDIBILITY.
Voters have been fed scare stories for the last 3 years, and the PCP have done almost nothing to defray those concerns; that argument has been lost due to incompetence.

Boris will have some trouble delivering a real Brexit even if he is sound and trying his very best to deliver. Too many traitor MPs plus bollocks to Brexit Bercow plotting against him and indeed against the UK’s interests.

Lifelogic, Boris only has a majority of one now. The obvious thing to do would be a general election. But with the Fixed Term Act, a two thirds majority is needed to call one. Labour got 5.3% in Wales – incredible! So which MPs would vote for a general election? MPs have got themselves into a right pickle. And all because they would not vote for the UK to actually leave the EU. MPs are caught out because of their own duplicity.

One of many strong arguments for a GE. If the case had been persistently and consistently made by BJ that a GE was the best way to deliver Brexit, and then, just as importantly, make a success of it, I think people would have more faith in him. As it is, the only Brexit this present Parliament delivers is some version of the WA/WT that amounts to a BRINO, probably as a prelude to re-accession at some later date.

As an aside, what is the plan for the remainer MPs? (I’m talking about those with principles, rather than the lobby fodder who happily voted for the WA; these latter would undoubtedly vote for anything they are told to, and so are an asset to a good leader, distasteful though that may be…)

The Conservatives have nothing to fear from the Brexit party if they deliver a clean and proper Brexit. If they do not, then we’ll be talking about ‘Boris Castle’. BJ has staked his political career on delivering Brexit. The consequences of failure are clear. The Conservative party has no divine right to exist. It’s future is now in BJ’s hands. Good luck with that…

You are correct in saying that the Brexit party cannot deliver Brexit now – at least not directly (they may be able to exert an influence indirectly). The Conservatives have the power and therefore the responsibility. Duly, they will therefore be held accountable. The only ‘Brexit’ the Brexit party, and indeed the ‘Spartans’, would want to stop is a BRINO.

Brexit does not have a divine right to exist. I have consistently suggested that it may not happen. But if indeed it does not happen, in defiance of a clear democratic mandate, there will inevitably be consequences. The Conservative party, as the party of government, as the party in power, will naturally, and rightly, bear the brunt of those consequences.

If your desire is to see a BRINO – not necessarily because you think it is itself a good thing, but because you think it will preserve the integrity (!) of the Conservative party – and this desire is thwarted, then I would hope that you reserve some blame for the Brexit party, and indeed others sufficiently clear-minded to discern what a real Brexit is, and what isn’t. I myself would be giving them credit for this.

As others have famously said (oh, that they truly meant it), a Brexit based on the WA is worse than no Brexit at all. But if a stitch-up it is to be, then there will be plenty of voters ready and willing to mobilise against a treacherous political class.

Except the Conservatives do not hold that much power since the 2017 GE and with every lost seat, due to defection or by-election, that power ebbs away even further, this is why I am so critical of UKIP/TBP, why do they stand against the ONLY party that is 1/. able to and 2/. willing to bring forth Brexit if they do truly desire Brexit.

Jerry, There is no such entity as UKIP/TBP. And why should the Brexit party or UKIP stand aside? We’re in this mess because of Conservative MPs, so why keep voting for them? If you keep doing the same thing, don’t expect different results. So people have decided to do a different thing: vote Brexit party. Tough – stop advocating a partial Leave and just maybe people will return to the Tory party.

The present government’s power is somewhat limited, though this has far more to do with the appalling errors of May’s government than anything TBP/UKIP have done. Nevertheless, BJ had the opportunity to publicly set the agenda as soon as the leadership race began. He could have made the case that to deliver a clean and proper Brexit you need a Parliament willing to do so. He had the opportunity to make all the relevant arguments, set out and justify an unequivocal position, and once in power set the agenda. Granted, the nature of this Parliament may still have proved an insurmountable obstacle, but when the crunch comes, as it inevitably will, and the people have their say again, BJ would have actually earned some trust as a result of the consistency and coherence of his position. At this point, TBP would be an ally; Farage has said he’d do a deal with the devil to deliver Brexit.

As it is, the nature of this Parliament points to one path more than any other. My prediction is this:

a) The present government will not secure any changes to the WA for two reasons; first, the changes sought by the UK are too difficult to deliver, mainly because altering the finely balanced WA will undermine EU unity; second the EU has no incentive to open the WA because it can see as well as anyone else that this Parliament will stop a no deal.

b) Meanwhile, the present government will continue no de preparations, but will not be proposing any legislation that would give Parliament the opportunity to bind its hands in this regard.

c) As 31.10 approaches, it will become clear that the only way for Parliament to prevent no deal will be to vote down the government. This will duly happen.

d) What happens next is uncertain, but I suspect that at this point a temporary government will be cobbled together, perhaps led by Rory Stewart, or Keir Starmer, or Yvette Cooper. They will legislate for a new referendum, probably with the option of remain or no deal, with Brexit postponed to allow this democratic event.

e) What then happens, God knows. Who would win the referendum is uncertain. What government would emerge subsequently is even more uncertain. But whatever happens, it will be messy. And whatever happens, TBP will be there, campaigning for exactly the same thing as always – a clean and proper Brexit – either to ensure it is delivered, or to seek to overturn the result of the referendum if it goes the other way. They could justify this by claiming, with a high degree of legitimacy, that the original instruction by the people was sabotaged, undermined and betrayed.

@NickC; The Brecon by-election was won by a electoral pack between the LibDems/Greens/PC, three septate parties that have certain policy commonality between them, have I suggested they are now one party?…

The Tories can only accommodate with Nigel Farage during an election and afterwards. The Lib/Dums are living off the disarray in Labour. In denying the referendum result they are neither liberal nor democratic. The ever remain BBC will cosy up to them so anticipate much dishonest speculation on our airwaves.

“In denying the referendum result they are neither liberal nor democratic.” Indeed nor are they liberal or democratic in so many other ways. It is a satirical name one assumes. Still at least Ed Davey did not win I would not want to see any more of him.

The Anti-Democratic, Government knows best, tax borrow and waste, Illiberal & full of greencrap party would be a better name.

Johnson stated last week he will not make a deal with any other party. Specifically after being asked about the Brexit Party.

I accept Mayhab was responsible for putting forward a criminal for election. 2009 expense scandal a distant memory for her or the Major sleaze govt. where Major proprogued Parliament not to be asked questions over cash for questions!

“10 tax free ports to be created after EU exit” – Well if 10 are a good idea why not make the whole of the UK a tax free port, free of unnecessary checks and paperwork and with liberated planning laws?

Why should this just apply to 10 ports rather than others who will be the lucky owners? It is just discrimination and unfair competition. I though this woke government wanted equality. They even have Rudd as Minster Women and Equality. And a competition authority.

“A no-deal Brexit would result in an instant shock to the UK economy” says Mark Carney.

Replacing Mark Carney and his project fear would surely be an instant boost to confidence and the economy. The many has made huge mistakes and is full of green lunacy too. A far better person could be found for about 10% of his remuneration. What are they waiting for?

The government and the BBC of course seem to be blaming the failure of the Toddbrook Reservoir Dam on “heavy rain” and “Climate Change” how convenient – but not remotely true.

A dam need to be strong enough to hold the water behind it up to the height of the dam (heavy rain or not) . If it rains too much you simply have release the water or it simply spills over the top.

The fault lies with a failure to maintain its structural integrity and/or to monitor it properly. Thank goodness it did not result in another Aberfan it could have been even worse. It seems that a primary school is located just below with dam.

Like most things in the UK it was probably too many pen pushers, lawyers, politicians, PPE types, box tickers and bureaucrats and far too few decent engineers, builders,scientist and actual doers. Let us hope the RAF chaps in the Chinook helicopter (dropping off tonnes of aggregate) plus releasing the water as quickly as safely possible will rescue the situation.

It seems some Canal Trust owns it. It it insured for public liability at up to say £1 billion? I could easily have been a huge tragedy and a massive claim. If so what was the insurance company aware of the massive risk they were taking on? Were they checking it was being maintained properly?

If TBP (and UKIP) hadn’t stood then Conservatives might still not have won, some votes may have gone to Labour. This would be bad for Conservatives.
If Conservatives (and UKIP) hadn’t stood then TBP might still not have won as a negative picture has been painted of them by some media.
The result as it stands shows the remain coalition at less than 50%,weak Labour and Tories leaking to TBP. This strengthens the PM’s position of leave by Oct 31 as otherwise votes and eventually seats will continue to leak – if UK leave on schedule then Cons can recover. If vote of NC / defections cause a GE then the Conservatives can do deal with TBP (e.g. Cons not standing in Labour seats that voted Leave and in which TBP did well in EU elections etc.)

Watch out for the G7 meeting in Biarritz later this month- if Boris sides with Trump against Macron and Merkel over Iran then the game is up- we will have become a vassalage of the US instead of the EU- so watch it- it’ll be in the body language

I makes sense to me to ally with whoever will support the UK in trying to secure the release of a UK flag vessel and a British citizen both imprisoned in Iran. Doing so on the Iranian issue is hardly becoming a vassalage.

You might want to read 1 August article in Foreign Policy:”Iran Owns the Persian Gulf Now”:-

“The Trump administration’s non-response to Iranian aggression has sent an unmistakeable message……….The United States is leaving the Persian Gulf.Not this year or next,but there is no doubt that the United States is on it’s way out.”

Both Germany and Japan have declined to get involved in what they see as a potential provocation and Iran and Russia will shortly commence joint naval exercises in the area.

No vote of Confidence will be called. Labour would be wiped out in an election. Only the Lib Dems are keen on an election (in the mistaken assumption that they are no longer the receivers of the dustbin vote) and they have hardly any MPs.

@APL; But UKIP caused those Tory seats to be lost in 2017, and they also caused the lost of otherwise winnable Tory seats in 2010, causing the coalition, Farage even boasted about it the morning after FACT.

If you really do want Brexit, which UKIP/TBP do not (the EP is to much the grandstand and gravy train), then wake up for goodness sake!

Vote UKIP/TBP, get Labour, or worse -a Coalition with the LDs and perhaps even the SNP holding the balance of power.

It’s my opinion, that without the UKIP putting pressure on the Tories, we’d never have got a referendum.

Before you point the finger at BREXIT/UKIP for the loss of Brecon and Radnor, you should ask why the Remain Tory leader permitted the same candidate that had been prosecuted under the PS Act 2009, – CAUSING the by election, to stand as the official Tory party candidate in this by election – Another attempt by a former Remainer PM to poison the well for Johnson.

from wiki:

“In February 2019, Davies was charged with claiming false expenses, pursuant to the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009. He pleaded guilty in March and, in April, was sentenced to a community order of 50 hours unpaid work and a £1,500 fine. Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, this conviction triggered a recall petition. After receiving notice from the sentencing court, the Speaker of the House of Commons indicated on 24 April 2019 that he would be instructing the constituency’s petition officer to begin the recall process. The petition opened on 9 May and remained open for signatures until 20 June 2019. It required 5,303 signatures (10% of eligible voters) to be successful. The Conservative Party were officially registered as campaigners for the petition’s failure, while the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Plaid Cymru campaigned for its success.

This petition was successful, receiving 10,005 signatures (19%), significantly in excess of the 10% of constituents required. Davies was removed from the seat, creating a vacancy to be filled at a by-election, in which he was permitted to stand.”

Jerry: ” and they also caused the lost of otherwise winnable Tory seats in 2010, causing the coalition, ”

Firstly, the constituency switches pretty much every election. The real actual difference this election was that those bastions of democracy the Greens and Pliad Cymru denied their voters the ability to vote for their own party programs and RECOMMENDED their supporters vote for the Lib Dems.

Foolishness or desperation? Each case should be judged on its own merits. Worth noting that desperate people often act foolishly. But acting foolishly is not quite the same as being a fool. Repeatedly acting foolishly on the other hand…

Tories lose Brecon after pro-Remain bigots agreed to work together in order to prevent splitting the Remain vote. Prepare for a snap GE.

The Tories and the BP must come to some sort of electoral pact to prevent a Marxist Labour government or indeed a Labour-SNP coalition

White, working folk in the North of England simply refuse to vote Conservative. This is the result of decades of class and cultural indoctrination. Therefore the Tories should step back in northern constituencies they have no possibility of winning and allow the BP to run against Remain Labour bigots in Northern English seats

@Dominic; “Tories lose Brecon after pro-Remain bigots agreed to work together “

Had UKIP/TBP “bigots” voted Conservative the Tory party would have won in Brecon, giving the Tory party a 2,000+ majority.

“The Tories and the BP must come to some sort of electoral pact”

Are you not being somewhat hypocritical? Funny how some UKIP/TBP supporters are desperately using these by-election defeats to seek the same type of electoral pact with the Tories [1] as the one you condemn between the Greens, PC and the LibDems in Brecon.

[1] no doubt to legitimise UKIP/TBP, not help the Tory party, UKIP/TBP could do the latter by simply not standing candidates in seats they plainly have little or no chance of winning.

“White, working folk in the North of England simply refuse to vote Conservative.”

Indeed, and many non “White, working folk” do too, but its got nought to do with Brexit, the problems for the Tory party started post the April 1979 GE…

Jerry, What is this UKIP/TBP entity you keep going on about? The reality is that UKIP and TBP are quite different, and even hostile towards each other (sadly). TBP is positioned much closer to the Conservatives – support is mostly ex-Tory voters (see Lord Ashcroft’s analysis). UKIP appeals more to ex-Labour voters than TBP does (in proportion). Presumably you are misled because you get your insights from the BBC.

@NickC; “Presumably you are misled because you get your insights from the BBC.”

Unlike you, no! For someone who so often complains about (alleged) BBC bias you must watch an awful lot of the Corporations output, or do you just repeat hear-say?

UKIP and TBP are two and the same, less some unsavoury people that caused the need for a new party, a previous leader and other officals, same policies, the same method of campaigning and operation within the EP, and with much the same hardcore membership. If it quack, waddles and loves water….

Jerry, Don’t be silly. I have never paid the BBC’s TV Tax. Entirely legally. I don’t normally listen to BBC radio. But that does not mean I can entirely escape BBC output, so pervasive it is.

Moreover if you stop taking in BBC output for a fortnight and then go back to it, the BBC’s biases, tricks, and fakery become glaringly obvious. It’s much less obvious if you watch/listen continuously.

It is a plain simple fact that UKIP and TBP are two quite separate parties. There have been ex-Tories in UKIP, but I’m struggling to think of a prominent one at the moment. But TBP? – it’s riddled with ex-Tories, and most of it’s voter support is ex-Tory. TBP is almost identical to the ERG wing of the Tory party. If it quacks, waddles and loves water ….

@NickC, “I have never paid the BBC’s TV Tax [..//..] But that does not mean I can entirely escape BBC output”

Nonsense, but thanks for admitting that many of your rants are mere hear-say, considering you do not watch any broadcast or time-shifted TV… Of course you could be living abroad and thus can watch UK TV without breaking UK laws, but then does that not disqualify you from interfering in UK domestic politics?

As for your second paragraph, the same is true of other broadcasters such as Ch4, Sky CNN & Fox etc. and other print/web media outlets such as the Morning Star, Daily Mail or Breitbart etc, that is why I always access multiple sources. I very much doubt you do.

“UKIP and TBP are two quite separate parties”

A bit like a Goose and a Gander are different birds, in some more detailed respects!

@NickC, “I do neither, as I clearly explained. So both your claims are strawmen.”

No you did not. You claim not to pay the TVL fee, thus you either 1/. do not watch any UK broadcast TV (thus your claims of BBC bias etc. must be hear-say), 2/. you do but are thus admitting to braking the law, or 3/. you live outside of the UK and thus disqualify yourself from the debate, even if a expat. Which one is it NickC. #1. #2 or #3…?

The only straw-man is your own, what is more it appears to have two (if not three) faces!

As for your last paragraph, it is you who clearly does not understand the significance of the Ashcroft polling data, yes UKIP/TBP are talking Tory votes, no one is doubting that fact, but in doing so it is weakening the only party willing and able to deliver Brexit.

This is serious politics, not a love affair or beauty contest, as to who is the biggest or most populist political party, leader, or even individual MP. The figures from Brecon on Friday morning clearly show that had UKIP/TBP votes been cast for the Tory candidate the Govt would not had their working parliamentary majority cut.

The significance, one more lost Tory [1] seat, one more defection or abstention from the Govt benches and the next important Brexit related vote might be in the hands of the Speakers casting vote, two more lost votes and the keys to N0. 10 might well end up with Corbyn via a very europhile grand coalition after a NC due to the (UKIP caused) 2011 FTPA, no GE required!

Why are you so sure the Brexit party cost the Conservatives the byelection?

Given the collapse of the Labour vote it is more likely that those voting Brexit party were labour leavers who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Conservative. The Conservatives were not going to win once Greens and Plaid stood down.

I do feel that the only way the Conservatives retain power following a general election is not to stand against the Brexit party in Labour heartlands. Labour leavers will not vote Cobservative but Conservative leavers may well vote Brexit party

@NC; “Given the collapse of the Labour vote it is more likely that those voting Brexit party were labour leavers who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Conservative.”

Well perhaps, if you discount the party manifestos!…

Also, whilst Labours vote collapsed it did so less than the Tory vote did.

What is more likely, Conservatives voters simply sat on their hands, how else do you account for a 7,680 drop in votes to Conservatives. I accept that Labour voters also sat on their hands too, perhaps because Labour Brexit believers thought that a 8,038 Tory majority could not be over turned.

Had the Brexit Party worked towards a conservative victory in Brecon the numbers were there for a Conservative victory. In the North of England the Conservative Party must work for Brexit Party victories assuming a general election. Boris and Nigel need to talk.

It is not a lurch perceived or real. The conservatives must first prune their party of rogue socialist tendencies. Whenever the next GE is called the candidate list must be 100% Conservative. There is then common ground for cooperation with the Brexit Party.

The BP would be strong wherever Labour have abandoned the leave vote. Generally in the North of England. Cooperation in which constituencies to contest could lead to a Brexit/Conservative government. I see neither as strong enough on their own to get an overall majority. Lack of cooperation could open the door to the four forms of socialism, not one of which has a clue as to how to run a successful economy.

The future for a Conservative Party is first to deliver Brexit and then to put in place the building blocks to make a success of it. Without Brexit their support will plummet and then the Brexit Party might reprise the recent EU election at a GE. No party, be it run by Lenin or Pinochet, stands any chance of lasting if it fails to produce a successful economy. Political philosophy is worthless unless you produce the wealth to fund it. Bilk Clinton got it right when he said ” It’s the economy stupid”.

@agricola; Of course it is a lurch, just as Cameron shacking-up with the LDs was, I wonder how many previously Tory supporting europhobes went on to join/vote for UKIP because of the 2010 coalition, it is naive to think that europhile Tory supporters could not shift their support if the party shacked-up with Farage.

“[TBP] would be strong wherever Labour have abandoned the leave vote.”

I’m not so sure, because for many voters in such areas any issues with our membership of the EU is a symptom, not the problem.

The Labour party never wanted Brexit, and since June 2016 have wanted a very managed Brexit if there is to be one, yet Labour came within a few votes of winning the 2017 GE.

As you remind us, Bill Clinton was correct, it’s the economy stupid!..

People did not flock (back) to Labour because of Labour’s pre referenda Brexit policy, they did so because of Corbyn’s far wider leadership manifesto policies. Remember he was first elected as leader, by an overwhelming popular majority in 2015, some 10 months before the Brexit referendum.

“The future for a Conservative Party is first to deliver Brexit and then to put in place the building blocks to make a success of it.”

No it is not, at least all the time the party is in Govt, their first duty is to govern the country, Brexit or no Brexit – they need to put those building blocks in place what ever, something many believe they have and are still failing to do, hence the rise of Labour under Corbyn, and now that of the LDs, since 2016.

[1] unless Corbyn’s wing of the Labour party are sidelined again, but that doesn’t look very likely, they seems to be Teflon coated, unlike some of the scheming Blairites

Agricola, Jerry is just exercising a little pre-emptive propaganda. If he says it enough times – ‘the Tories are quite separate from the horrid UKIP/TBP entity’ – he thinks he will begin to believe it himself.

Dominic you have written pretty much what I was about to myself. I think that the quid pro quo should be that the Brexit Party do not stand candidates in the constituencies of those like our host who have steadfastly stood up for us leaving the Evil Empire. Swinson can hardly cry foul now that the precedent has been set can she ?
One other point. Who the hell thought that standing the same person up as a candidate who had just been recalled and disgraced was a good idea?

May is so reliable as a broken compass one should ask her opinion on almost anything issue and then do the complete opposite. One would make a fortune that way. I wonder who she thinks will win the Ashes?

Mr Davies, when confronted with an invoice in respect of his constituency office setup costs that put him over budget, decided to fabricate two replacement invoices which he then used to mop up the the outstanding setup budget, applying the other to his annual running costs budget. I think the invoice related to six pictures to put on the office wall.

If you would like me to explain why this was dishonest and therefore why the constituency party was as idiotic as some of those around me who either select a wildly inappropriate candidate or continue to stand a candidate whose lack of a work ethic was weekly recorded in the local press, I will do so. FPTP needs to go.

The difficulty with this is that only about thirty Conservative MPs have been steadfast in their opposition to the EU. The ratio of Brexit party to Conservative candidates would be massively in the Brexit party’s favour. It would be the Brexit party allowing select Conservatives a free run, rather than the other way round. Sadly, this ain’t gonna happen.

That is simply NOT true. I am white working class, born and bred Labour, but never again will I or any of my family vote Labour. 70% of people up here voted for Brexit no deal. Those same people will now vote BP.

If true, you need to think again. You are voting for the end of the NHS, more expensive food and drink, removal of workers’ rights and consumer rights. You think Farage is on the side of the working class? Brexit is for the rich by the rich.

Hasn’t it occurred to you that an independent, free and democratic country can give its workers any rights that it wants to? It doesn’t need to pay a foreign power £360 million a week in order to do this.

If you want to ensure the continued existence of the NHS as we know it then please make sure you support Brexit and thus be able to vote for politicians who say they will keep the NHS.

For if we remain in the EU :

1) The NHS will be sold (to put it in remainer terms) to the US by the EU in a trade deal in exchange for cheaper tariffs on German cars and French wine. We will have no veto when trade deals becomes either an EU competence or is decided by QMV, or worse still if we are stupid enough to vote for the EU’s WA.

2) With “ever closer union”, and hence continued harmonisation of taxes and institutions, the EU’s healthcare provision will be harmonised. No other country in the EU (or even the world come to that) uses our free-at-the point of service system and hence when harmonisation comes it will not be along the NHS model.

3) The UK taxpayer will eventually be unable to afford free healthcare to everyone in the EU who seeks it, made worse by the EU’s desire for continued expansion. And if social care is added to the taxpayer burden we will become the granny dumping nation of the EU.

I’m of the view that the NHS should be privatised. I’ve have used a number of healthcare systems in the world including Canada, US, Japan and Taiwan. I would rank the NHS at the bottom in terms of quality and access to care. Of the systems I’ve used, surprisingly the Taiwan system is the best in quality of care and price. The NHS is well past its sell by date and should be modernised.

Jerry, Leaving the EU treaties and trading under WTO rules was always a possibility of the Leave vote. There were no conditions attached to Leave, either on the ballot paper, or the EU Referendum Act 2015. Moreover TEU Art50 allows us to leave the EU treaties without a withdrawal agreement. And the EU has refused to negotiate a trade deal until the UK has left anyway.

@NickC; But so was a Brexit based around not leaving all the treaties, doe exactly the reasons yo suggest, what is more it was often debated here, being called Flexcit.

As I’ve tried to point out before, admittedly without success, 17.4m people voted for Brexit but with 28 different (and legal) campaign groups all seeking the same Leave vote no one can possibly know just what the electorate actually wants from Brexit.

Jerry has a point about a lack of coherence in the (many) leave campaign (s). However, Jerry, it is crystal clear what a proper Brexit entails. The political nature of the Single Market affirms this. As I’m sure you know, remaining in the Single Market or even ‘just’ the Customs Union’ means accepting the primacy of EU law in certain areas. Therefore, it is simple logic that to regain our sovereignty, we must simply leave, but leave entirely. Having left, we, and the EU, can then perhaps come to terms on the nature of our future relationship. Logically, this is what the people voted for

Jerry, It doesn’t matter if there were 28, or however many, campaigns (ie: advocates), there was a binary choice of only two outcomes in the 2015 Act, and on the ballot paper: to remain in the EU, or to leave it. Remaining under EU control is remaining in the EU. The English word ‘Leave’ is quite plain, and its understanding is at Primary school level.

It is absolutely clear that if Remain had won – however many Remain campaigns there were – there would have been no prospect of a fudged Remain where the UK left half of the EU treaties and agreements. It’s either in or out: no other options are practicable. It’s incredible that you still don’t see that.

As for ‘Flexit’, you have to be aware of both the quarrel between North and Farage, and the fact that North got himself trapped into advocating an initial partial Leave due to his contention that it would take years to replace EU law with UK law.

Yes, as it was to each and every person who voted leave, but just what was “it”, Flexcit, or WTO, how does anyone know from a single [X] on the referendum ballot paper.

Stop projecting what you want as what everyone else wants ‘logically’, you have no mandate to do so and by doing so are subverting the very democracy you say you demanded back.

If you want to know what “it” means, and thus what the majority want, have the guts and common democratic decency to actually ask them – otherwise you are behaving no differently to the EC, the plebs have a vote but they’ll still get what we want!..

Jerry, You haven’t asked “them”, either. You are projecting your own desire for a cosy half-in/half-out solution. Want to know why people are deserting the Conservative party and voting Brexit party or UKIP? The answer is in your own semi-Remain rants, echoed by a majority of Tory MPs.

Leave means out of the EU – it always did. Even Flexit is a precursor to a full exit. And the Tory party isn’t going to allow us to leave – Boris has said so a week after he got in. Do you wonder why we don’t trust the Tories? It’s over, Jerry, the CP is done.

In the context of the 2016 referendum that is a 100% projection on your part, how do you know that 17m did not vote Leave because they wanted Flexcit (Norway option), meaning that a mere 4000 odd want a WTO exit, you can not as no one has ever been asked which of the 28 Leave manifestos they approved of, voted for.

The success of the Brexit Party at the EU elections was intended to put down a marker and slap the face of all those duplicitous politicians at Westminster who would thwart the decision of the UK electorate when they voted in June 2016. Should Boris fail by 31st October this year they are prepared to do it again.

White, working folk in the North of England simply refuse to vote Conservative.

Well perhaps this is because the Conservative have under cut their wages with open door low paid immigration, have buried the UK into the EU even more deeply, regulated us to death, have failed to deliver Brexit, have increased taxes to the highest for 50 years and meanwhile have provided dire and declining public services like the NHS, schools, universities, police, justice, social services, mental health care ….

Then they want us to think the Conservative are a low tax party and good at economic management! Better than Corbyn/Mc Donnall/SNP slightly perhaps but still appalling and dishonest.

Labour is now a Remain party but didn’t join the coalition. Their vote got squeezed also by some voters switching to TBP. In more normal constituencies, where there is no substantial vote for Plaid or Greens, the split between Labour and Lib Dems will be enough to prevent either winning to a far greater degree than before.

I see James Cleverly has been in the media claiming foul. Tough. The result is a consequence of how the flawed and unrepresentative FPTP system operates, and if you don’t like it, the solution is simple, get rid of FPTP and replace it with a better system.

Indeed the only sensible course remains for the UK to leave on 31 October as promised, whilst offering comprehensive free trade talks and a no tariffs exit on that date. May’s vassal state W/A is totally unacceptable – even without the backstop.

As the by-election in Brecon showed the Conservative need a deal with Brexit too. Also not to allow a convicted candidate to stand again which was idiotic. Encouraging that Labour are doing so badly. The voters are far more sensible that Corbyn/Mc Donnall.

Is there no limits to Google’s (and prince Harry’s) hypocrisy on climate change? How do these people thing anyone can take them seriously? Have they compensated Damore for his appalling treatment by them yet?

I just listened to Dame Sally Davies on Desert Island. Why on earth have Trinity College Cambridge appointed this person as the new Master. The place will becoming …………….dumbed down.

She complain of sexism (for being called Nanny in Chief). No…. lots of Nannying types are male but are called Nannying (and some real nannies are actually male too). It is the nannying that get you called that not your gender. The usual lefty obsession with “diversity” rather than merit. Doubtless Trinity will disinvest from BP and fossil fuels soon like those Art Gallery dopes. Let us hope she does not do too much damage to this great institution. Mind you I do like a bit of Vaughan Williams: Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis.

Perhaps the most idiotic thing that these nannying lefties (male or female) get wrong is that they think poor people cannot afford to eat well. Why? Healthy foods are actually far cheaper than fast foods or ready meals. No very many things are cheaper than a bag of dried lentils, porridge, a few apples, some bread flour, chick peas, a few carrots & a cabbage or similar.

What people do not seem to realise is that unless there is some kind of agreement, the EU will simply not recognise our membership on Friday, 1st November.
Parliament can say and do what it likes, the EU has decided.
End.

@Mike Stallard; The EC have said, should the UK declare a GE before the 31st Oct the EC would (be minded to) put back the date yet again.

And why wouldn’t they, when opinion polls suggest the next Govt will be europhile, if not very europhile, otherwise why didn’t TM and why doesn’t BJ not simply go to the country and gain a proper working majority?

@NickC; Yes I suspect the upper echelons of the Tory party are scared of UKIP/TBP, after all they also most lost the 2010 Ge for the Tory party, thus causing the 2010 coalition, a most europhile one at that (Farage even boasted that is was UKIP that caused it…), and then in 2017 UKIP almost brought about Corbyn cycling up Downing Street, only the DUP standing in his way.

Jerry, And that’s not self-serving in which way? The era of holding your nose and voting Conservative (or Labour) is over. However much you advocate it.

I have voted tactically in the past – it’s a waste of time. I’m going to vote for what I want. And a whole lot of people now think the same way. Why should I be frightened of some 1970s throwback who wants to nationalise Britain’s railways, when a majority of MPs want to outsource our whole government to the EU?

@NickC. The only era that appears to be over is the one where people held their noses whilst voting UKIP/TBP.

Remind us how many Westminster MPs, how many County or Local councillors, how many London Assembly members does your beloved UKIP/TBP have currently? After some success, admittedly, and the hyperbole round a couple of defections Conservative, talk about a dead cat bounce!

Even in Wales things have not gone that well for UKIP/TBP, and like with the EP elections, if it wasn’t for (a Party List version of) proportional representation UKIP/TBP wouldn’t have a single AM either.

“I have voted tactically in the past – it’s a waste of time. I’m going to vote for what I want.”

Like so many did in the 2010 GE you mean, voted UKIP got the LibDemn in coalition. Like so many did in 2017, and almost got a Corbyn lead grand coalition of the LDs, the SNP and PC.

@Noneoftheabove; You forget that if the govt have lost a NC vote, during the now mandated FTPA procedure (even if a GE becomes necessary), they will also likely loose any vote to prevent the postponing of our Leave date if there is majority support in the House to form a grand coalition of MPs with that sole aim in mind.

Parliamentary procedures could be used by Boris to force Brexit though, if necessary, but that first requires a working majority on the floor of the House, without one it’s game over, just as it was for Callaghan in March 1979…

Jerry, Your fixation with your imaginary UKIP/TBP entity blinds you to why the Conservatives really lost at Brecon. Your Theresa May allowed the incumbent fraudster to stand. So despite the ‘Boris effect’, the electorate were having none of it. With a decent honest candidate the Tories could have won; it was nothing to do with TBP.

Hello …….. @NickC, the only person being blinded by love is you. Also nothing imaginary about who once lead UKIP and who currently leads TBP, nothing imaginary about were their membership base came from either, nothing imaginary about the similarity in polices. Quack-quack!

The voting figures clearly show, had the UKIP/TBP votes gone to the Conservatives the govt would not now have had their majority reduced to a (possibly) critical level – everyone accepts that people might well have had to hold their noses. UKIP/TBP should have also stood down, it might not have changed the result, but it might just have done so.

Politics can be unpalatable at times, do you honestly believe that the LDs and PC agree with many of the other Labour polices beyond Brexit, do they support Corbyn as leader, does the LDs agree with Labour’s defence policy etc etc. – UKIP/TBP need to decide what they want, Brexit or a grandstand in the EP…

Yes a different Tory candidate should have been selected, that said, there have been quite a few candidate section howlers from other parties too, some far more serious than involving a wonky expenses claim. Thanks for encouraging me to read up on the actual details by the way, perhaps you should do likewise (before using any further inflammatory language), “technical” is the word that comes to mind having done so.

The smoothest exit is via the offer of a FTA (no tariffs), and by mutual agreement, retaining the status quo on trade until the FTA is agreed (again no tariffs). All the above after we leave on WTO terms on 31st October. If the EU are stupid enough to reject such an offer then it is WTO terms with no deal. QED.

I’m wondering if Boris and his team are putting together a bare bones FTA to offer to the EU, probably in September around conference season. If they give the EU 4 weeks or so to go over it, set the basic groundwork for a future relationship and so on. If the EU reject it then we leave with no agreement at all.

But the Withdrawal Agreement doesn’t define very much regarding trade Andy.
The EU and UK begin to talk about a trade relationship just after we leave.
Japan traded OK with UK and Europe for over 40 years without an agreement until recently.

I would not expect an FTA to be finalised with EU for at least a decade. The EU is in no rush to make a deal and based on its experience with the Withdrawal Treaty its in no mood to rush into negotiations with a country in political turmoil. The EU is going to wait until the political situation has stabilised. I think this wait and see attitude will make it difficult to engage with the EU not just on trade, but on security, data and other outstanding issues. There is no chance of “retaining status quo” for either side. On the other side of Brexit our relationship with Europe (ie not the EU) will be significantly weaker for an extend period of time.

There are other ways of framing a comment, Garland, rather than resorting to juvenile insult. Especially as you are a guest on this private blog. I know our host probably allows your rude comment to pass his censorship so that we can make reply on his behalf.

Am I the only one who takes exception to these disrespectful and small-minded people?

I don’t doubt the PM’s will to leave on 31 Oct. The people who doubt it are those who are so worried about no deal that they can’t believe Johnson isn’t worried about no deal and consequently will want to avoid doing it.

My concern is how to prevent the Commons messing things up. The speaker will be aching to “reinterpret” standing order 24 or similar to take control of the order paper and pass a law requiring the PM to ask for an extension. What can the government do to defend itself from this?

Governments are there to govern. They are empowered to enter treaties and leave them without recourse to parliament. Leaving the EU is leaving a string of treaties, the last of which in Lisbon was enterred into by David Milliband and Gordon Brown without a line by line discussion in parliament. Incidentally parliament has already invoked Art.50 and agreed the date of leaving. It is only the duplicity of May that finds us where we are.3

Anthony, Not so. I doubt the PM’s will to leave on 31 Oct 2019, and I am a strong Leave supporter. Why? – because Boris stated that the UK could remain in the CU and SM for a couple of more years. Remaining under the control of the EU, in two of the most significant areas, is not Leave, by definition.

We will not leave the EU if
1. We cannot force a by election of those turncoat Tories who have defected and no longer represent their constituents.
2. We fight a by election with a convicted criminal as the Tory candidate.
3. We split the Brexit vote at a by election between the Tories and Brexit party allowing the Lib Dems in. Instead of talking to Farage.
4. We rely on Bercow not to allow Back benchers to take control again.

BW, Well put. Please tell Jerry those are the real reasons, not his imaginary bogeyman (his UKIP/TBP entity), which he thinks can just be shouted down. The result is in the Tory party’s hands – they have the MPs in Parliament, not the BP, they must face up to reality and ensure the Leave outcome is implemented. Or call a GE – with sensible, honest candidates.

@NickC; What did you not understand about bullet point #3 from @BW above?…

The problem is as much UKIP/TBP as it is the other three put together if UKIP/TBP keep splitting the Brexit support. There is only one party able to deliver Brexit, it is not UKIP/TBP, although they can stop Brexit and quite likely have…

The europhiles will now smell blood when parliament resumes, one more vote lost from the Govts Lobby and BW’s point #4 becomes a very real problem as it is not always up to the govt to decide parliamentary business, or what amendments are selected, whilst a Labour sponsored NC will always be debated what ever.

“[the Tory Party] must face up to reality and ensure the Leave outcome is implemented. Or call a GE – with sensible, honest candidates.”

They can not do the first without a working majority though, so tell me NickC, if Boris did call a GE, would UKIP/TBP stand any candidates? After all if the House is again left hung with NOC, any splitting of the eurosceptic vote in individual constituencies that causes a europhile party to come up the middle and win might be vital in deciding the future of Brexit.

Boris Johnson can’t exist in a bubble though. His predecessor tried that, and look where it got her. If he doesn’t have parliament and the country on his side by the 31st October, then the decision will be taken out of his hands.

The Brecon & Radnorshire result was predictable. The Lib Dems walked
off with exactly the percentage of votes they had been projected to get
mid-month. Meanwhile, it has been claimed that the Brexit Party refused to
make way for the Tories because of Chris Davies’ support for May’s deal. Thus,
you had a split vote and no meaningful “Boris bounce”.

1. The EU will act in its own interests. It will seek a backstop before and after we Leave.

2. The EU will grant an extension if the UK were to hold a GE. This will come with further concessions.

3. So the Conservative Party is majority Remain. Now we know 😉

4. If they offer Labour the chance of winning a no confidence vote then which will mean Remain, which happens to be Labour’s new policy, then I think they might.

5. No, but the next one, a Labour, LibDem and Nationalist coalition will.

The best course is for this government is to either :

A. Hold another GE now, or

B. Put before parliament to revoke Art.50 and make it a Three Line Whip not to do so and a confidence vote at the same time. Those that vote against the government and for revoking Art.50 get kicked out and we get a GE. New government and fewer Remainers.

I hope you are right Sir John, but I worry about the PM’s commitment to deliver a clean Brexit.

His talk of staying the Single Market and Customs Union for one to two years more, makes me think that he will sign up for the Withdrawal Treaty minus the backstop. He buckled and voted for the Withdrawal Treaty on the third vote; not a good sign.

Only in your dreams, Champagne ‘Andy’. Holding a political view contrary to yours is still not a criminal offence. Electoral fraud certainly is and there’s plenty of that from people on your side of the argument.

Holding a political view contrary to mine is, indeed, not a criminal offence. Nor should it ever be.

But wilfully rejecting facts, dismissing evidence, slandering experts and knowingly forcing the country down path which the vast majority of the evidence suggests is immensely harmful is not holding a contrary view. It is deliberately – criminally – irresponsible.

If you get your car serviced and the mechanic tells you that you need to replace your brakes immediately – and you don’t- when you crash you are responsible for the people you hurt.

Brexit is different because both sides are effectively trying to predict the future.
It is an imperfect science.
Your side used the doom laden predictions of Project Fear 1.0 during the referendum campaign and were wrong on nearly every prediction they made.
Unemployment fell they predicted half a million more
Numbers in work rose they predicted a fall
Growth carried on they predicted a recession
They predicted a fall in exports, it never happened.
They told us taxes would rise by over £4000 per family, it never happened.
They told us inward investment would dry up, it hasn’t, in fact it has carried on at high levels.
Just a few examples of the failed predictions of your side.

Andy, You still haven’t been able to marshal any facts to show why the UK should not join the majority of the planet out of the EU.

It is you who rejects the facts of the EU empire’s anti-democratic control over the UK; you who dismisses the glaring evidence of the rest of the world; and you who ignores the fact that your “experts” are no such thing – because they got it almost all wrong.

There is no greater harm to a nation than being denied our independence and self-determination. And that’s what harm you want to do.

Andy, In a democracy it is the voters who decide. Leave is one of those decisions. The demos, not MPs, have sovereignty. So it is not a case of MPs “allowing” Leave. Moreover without our national democracy the EU could take away your rights, but you could not do a darn thing about it. You need democracy as much as I do.

Of course you could try to squander your democratic rights, and mine, on an artificial sub-fascist political construct with ambitions of empire. The EU ideology is just another north western European attempt to impose rule by “expert” rather than rule by demos. It will in the end fail.

Perhaps ‘Andy’ would like to tell us how she/he thinks his/her EU masters would punish us should we decide to remain shackled.
Perhaps he/she could tell us how we might be expected to make redress for all the trouble and angst we’ve caused them. I’m sure he/she could suggest what we might be asked to pay to be allowed to remain – on their terms (of course).
Or will they throw wide the door and welcome us with open arms, promising us we can return to the status quo of 2016 – the one that Andy knew he/she was voting for?

Try the European Arrest warrant as one example Andy.
Overturning hundreds of years of Common Law, Habeous Corpus and the presumption of innocent until proven guilty.
You can be plucked from this country on the say so of a court somewhere in the EU and kept in jail for months awaiting a trial.
No magistrate or judge in this country can investigate the evidence laid against you, nor stop you being put in cuffs then stuck on a plane and being carted off.
I think that is a travesty of justice and a dreadful rejection of proper human rights for UK citizens.
But I expect you love it Andy.

Yes, the right to choose what suits my circumstances is one of them. One example is “inefficient” lamps. Yet you have no idea of the technologies. So the various good and bad of each pass you by – even though I have explained them – because you prefer propaganda to knowledge.

One of the main topics the Referendum was fought over was immigration. An independent democratic nation can control who comes in and how many. The EU prevents that. The EU allows you to impose yourself on another EU states citizens without their consent. But what right have you to do that?

Edward2 highlights the EAW, and its removal of the right of habeas corpus. There are innumerable other rights the EU has stolen from us, often outlined by others on JR’s blog, but you wilfully ignore them. Probably the most important one is the democratic right to remove the government.

Given the history of the activities to undermine, distort and abandon the REF result, until the day arrives and UK has left there is going to be doubt. What is not doubted is that should this not happen the Conservative Party will lose seats that were unimaginable just 4 years ago.

Parliament is indeed in favour of staying in. The very many traitors to the UK in parliament the Bercow, Grieves, Soames types are determined to ensure that no sensible deal is offered by the EU, thus undermining the Boris agenda and hugely damaging the UK’s interest to. This will surely bury the Conservatives if these traitors get away with it. As we see with the by-election result of yesterday the Conservatives cannot win the next election without delivering a clean Brexit and doing deal with the Brexit Party as well. Brexit plus Conservatives 50% of the vote. Libdims 44%

Not having convicted criminals stand as candidates would rather help too.

My goodness I actually agree with Anna Soubry on something – anonymity for people accused of rape and similar (before it has even been investigated and charges have need brought). Alas it seems No. 10 do not. But then they are I hope rather busy on other matters.

Not much Parliamentary time, at all.
They are on holiday now until early September. Then Parliament recesses for 3 weeks or so of Party Conferences. This does not leave much time for the opposition to create any damage apart from a “No Confidence” motion from JC.
Even if the Government loses, JC has 2 weeks under the “Fixed Parliament Act” to try to form a Government himself (good luck with that). Even if he succeeds in forming a Government he will have insufficient time to repeal any Acts of Parliament before 31st October and it takes at least 4 weeks to get through a GE.
Any reasonable scenario takes us beyond 31st October when, by Law, we leave the EU.
If the PM, foolishly in my view, decides to introduce legislation before Halloween it will give the rebels a chance to hijack the process with spurious amendments designed to prevent “no deal”.
All Boris has to do is hold his nerve and not request any extensions to the Art.50 process.

Mrs May’s project to destroy the Conservative Party lives on in her remain allies in Parliament.

As we have a UK Parliament that will go down fighting the people that put them there. The feeling is that even come November 1st we may have left technically, but with so many MP’s still requiring the UK to be ruled by a foreign power they will find a way to ensure their master in Brussels can manipulate the aim of being the UK’s political masters.

I remain skeptical. I think the poison between Cummings and Farage is a disaster, as the conservatives and the Brexit party will start to take chunks out of each other.

Then there’s the problem that Westminster is located in London – or Remain central – and the risk of riots if Parliament is ignored. As well as the government having a majority of one. I can’t see anything going through parliament. Nor can I imagine Londoners keeping quiet if Bozo starts ignoring parliament.

A general election would likely lead to the resurgence of the Lib Dems, making it very difficult for anyone to get a majority.

Also this weird idea that we can simply leave without talking to the E.U. Like them or not, we need boats to sail and planes to fly. We cannot change our geography. No deal is dependant on the E.U playing ball. And while it is in their interests, we do need to play our cards carefully. Not much sign of Bozo doing that, but here’s hoping.

It will be a close run thing between a clean Brexit on 31st October and an election prior to that, when the CP will be decimated. Who knows what local associations will do about the majority of Remain MPs, even if they have time to organise new candidates. The CP, largely due to the road runner Cameron and the worst PM May, have created a perfect storm without the option of kicking the can down the road.

The supposition that all Brexit voters will vote CP if the BP did not stand in a constituency is questionable.

If the CP cannot recover and is destined for the scrapheap, would we not see a mass exodus of CP candidates to alternative parties, anyway? Wouldn’t it, therefore, have been wiser to play Remainers at their own game at this stage by working closely with Farage. Alternatively, have we perhaps discovered that his true objective is more about gaining power, than having a quick and clean departure from the EU? Now that would be interesting!

I’m rather of the opinion that Varadkar will be told what to do by his Brussels masters, even if that means the RoI have to put up a hard border to protect the single market.
This will be blamed on the UK of course – we forced them to do it.
Why doesn’t the RoI follow our lead and come out as well? They can then look West to their many friends in the US, far more there than in mainland Europe.

I doubt they could afford it. The UK has been a net contributer for all but one year, and the EU demand £39bn for our release. How much would they expect from a country that has been a net recipient for all but one or two years?

However, it is debatable whether the EU can demand anything from ex-members.

Interesting scenario, which a number of us of course disagree with an which is also the scenario the BoE summarized to be the worst scenario possible for the UK economy last night as the IBF as well.
According to your solution we still have to sit down and negotiate with the EU subsequently, so I see little gain in your solution.

However, with respect, your post is entitled “We will leave…”. You then list some reasons as to why we OUGHT to leave, and describe scenarios in which the LIKELIHOOD is that we would leave. What you don’t do is explain why we WILL leave, why it is inevitable, why it is set in stone.

You have not explained why Parliament would simply allow the UK to leave the EU without some kind of agreement or deal when this is contrary to all the rhetoric, and indeed to the view of the House expressed in votes.

I understand that there is, at present, no majority for any particular course of action (this might change if BJ returns with concessions – empty though they might be. Not all of your Parliamentary colleagues are as principled as you). In your view, this results in us leaving by default. In my view, this results in the can being kicked again.

Put simply, I don’t believe anyone can be certain of anything. If this uncertainty persists to the point of a GE however, then one thing I am certain of is that the lack of trust in the Conservative party will seriously undermine support. The result of that? Only time can tell.

I wish I could offer some cause for optimism. The best I can muster is this; the absolute worst case scenario is that the UK actually achieves a Brexit, but then proceeds not only to squander the many opportunities Brexit offers, but actually makes a complete mess of things, such that the people decide that it is better to be less free but governed better, rather than free but governed really badly.

I’m not convinced our country is ready for Brexit. A small part is the lack of no deal planning (I think it a real stretch to believe that there was good no deal planning on May’s watch, and whatever one thinks about the present government, three months is very little time to achieve much). But the far greater part is that I don’t think the country is ready to elect a government that, in simplistic terms, makes good policy.

The fundamental issue is that far too many people want government to sort their lives out for them – though I believe they have been encouraged to do so by successive governments for many decades. Whilst this culture of dependency persists, governments will continue to have a mandate to run people’s lives.

Simeon – your final paragraph is very accurate, and I wanted to write that it deserves a separate discussion, until I realised that it is surely a description of the basic difference between Conservative and ultra-Socialist philosophies.

I would argue that the conservative philosophy is no longer fit for purpose, the reason being that there is so little left to conserve, and so much that requires reform.

There is also the point that there is a strong tradition of paternalism in Conservative thought and practice which is no longer appropriate in our time. (I’m not suggesting that helping our fellow man who is in need is wrong, but rather that this should not be legislated for.)

Though there is much in libertarian thought of value, and such instincts as they are exhibited by Conservatives are to be welcomed, I think that it is voluntaryism (that ‘y’ is important) that is most appropriate for modern, widely diverse societies. Freedom of association, or indeed of isolation, is key.

He can’t explain because nobody knows, and it’s certainly not set in stone – not when the government has a majority of one! Mr Redwood is the King of Complacency who pays no attention to parliamentary arithmetic or processes. In his permanent state of delusion, he believes that there is a mandate for a No deal outcome, even though nothing was said about it during the referendum or the 2017 General Election. He told us we’d definitely be leaving on March 31st – that couldn’t be stopped. About a year and a half ago, he was also telling us that May was an excellent Prime Minister. If I were you, I’d take his predictions with an ocean full of salt.

Reply Plenty of misrepresentations of my views in this. Try reading back copies of this blog to see how wrong you are. I did nit tell you Mrs May was a good PM nor rule out her delaying exit

You will leave Oct 31st because EU has decided the Farage group in the EU parliament has to go- It would be unthinkable that the Farage/ Widdecombe act with the predicted distraction to business could be allowed to continue into next term.

You will leave because the EU is not prepared to put up with any more threats from the ERG faction- “give me what I want or I’ll burn the house down”- no rational body is going to negotiate with that- and Boris is the leader of it

Then Mark Francois said yesterday that even if the Backstop was deleted it wouldn’t do for him and his 60 ERG MPs- they want the whole lot thrown out- so what’s the point? you will leave Oct 31st

You will leave and no point in offering comprehensive Free Trade talks with no tariffs on the way out- without the WA this is pie in the sky thinking.

As to your final point about FT talks, please take a look at the draft Tariff Schedule on the Government website. It’s quite a tome but worth ploughing through to the end.
Well over 90% of items have a zero tariff, including vehicle components.
You will note that imported completed vehicles, apart from those for agricultural use, breakdown or emergency services are to be taxed at between 11% and 22% depending on engine size.
I imagine this will have at least two immediate effects:-

Firstly, it will encourage European vehicle manufacturers to put pressure on the EC to agree FTA talks with us which will immediately remove the tariffs (GAT XXIV).

Secondly, it may go some way to encourage foreign motor manufacturers to invest in UK manufacturing installations. This effect will depend on the manufacturers considerations over the economies of scale of building cars in the UK solely for sale in the UK.

Off topic I know but I wish the MSM would challenge Remainers assertions with a demand for accurate evidence as much as they do Leavers.

Kees, It is the EU that is saying “give me what I want or I’ll burn the house down”, not the UK. We would have been quite happy to fully leave, as outlined in TEU Art50, and with a free trade deal. The EU has prevented both in order to make it clear that any nation which has the temerity to leave will be punished. Even if it harms the EU as well.

Kees, my number crunching group is coming up with similar thinking. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is actually a framework document for a future trade agreement; it has been specifically designed to be such. Also, it is designed to be acceptable as a WTO GATT 24 “interim agreement”, when times and dates are inserted into it; even though the WTO has had no enthusiasm for such nebulous agreements since 1995.

Alas, leave voting Brexiters are too thick in the head to understand any of this. The word from Brussels is any possible EU-UK trade agreement is three to five years away at best. Meanwhile, a WTO Brexit is going to be expensive for the bottom three quintiles of UK households.

Acorn, Leaves already pointed out last year that Theresa May’s WA was “actually a framework document for a future trade agreement”. An extraordinarily bad one. Where we remain under EU control and suffer the consequences – paying and obeying.

The EU’s Withdrawal Treaty was a trap, which is why even a remain dominated Parliament could not bring itself to vote for it.

But don’t take my word for it, see what Mr, Macron said about the Withdrawal Treaty concerning fishing :

“The UK will be trapped in a customs union after Brexit unless Downing Street offers European fishermen full access to British waters during the coming trade negotiations.”

“The EU’s demands on fisheries needed swift resolution after 29 March 2019 or the talks on a wider trade deal would fail leaving the UK in the “backstop” customs union envisioned in the withdrawal agreement.”

“It [the backstop] is a lever”.

“We will concentrate our efforts in order to obtain access to the British waters before the end of the transition period. And of course all of our fishermen will be protected.”

Fishing is just one of the reasons why the Withdrawal Treaty was totally unacceptable.

Mark Carney, Governor of BOE, should be kicked out forthwith for his unwanted interference when he speaks – he knows full well that his statements damage the negotiating abilility of those doing their best to rescue the impasse manufactured by Mrs May.

Why should his statements be treated with rapt attention when his previous forcasts have been abysmally inaccurate – still waiting to hear from him for an explanation on this?

Carney is a Canadian because Canadian born, he holds three passports as far as I know, Canadian, Irish and UK. but even with all of these European add on’s he is still thought of as being too North American in his way to be considered suitable as Chief of the IMF

What you talking about? There is no negotiation. The negotiation was the WA, it’s signed off by 28 governments and remains to be ratified by the EU parliament and of course the UK parliament. Negotiations are finished, everyone is away on holidays now

Harka, You are delusional. The dWA negotiated by Theresa May’s team was rejected three times by a Remain dominated UK Parliament and is dead. The dWA could not be “signed off” by the UK government without Parliamentary approval in this case – that’s what the term “draft” means in the UK. The UK is open to re-negotiate. The EU can do so, or refuse, that is up to them.

NickC I don’t think many of the the EU MEP’s are happy to approve this Agreement either, a lot of them feel that too much time has passed and too much has been said, that its time now for Britain to leave

The pound has dropped but has a long way to go before it looks like a No Deal panic. Interest rates may have to rise in support as we go into Brexit recession. That would change the landscape
The Brecon win for Remain is hard to read . Its a Leave seat and a good win but the key factor was the presence of the Brexit Party. I`m becoming uncertain that they will be do all the work just to hand over the winnings to an establishment again
No Deal cannot go through ,there must be a GE.
Why should Farrage stand aside ,Redwoods familiar, Comrade Corbyn is starting to wiff Labour are collapsing . Its not over yet

VB’s a tedious bore and a Remain adherent. He only needs to accept the truth that was delivered to the nation in 2016 when the British electorate voted to leave the EU and dissolve its EU membership. On that basis his dry warbling’s are utterly without substance. He’s in total denial of the truth and he knows it. Hypocrisy is such a nauseating weight to carry around on weak shoulders

As Peter Bone, Esq., M.P. said the other day, it is probably too late now to hold an election before Oct 31, and therefore, ceterus paribus, we will leave by default ie without a deal. Also, ComRes say that holding a GE before Reformation Day, or after(if an extension has been agreed), is likely to result in a ‘hungish’ Parliament. Only a GE post no-deal will ‘cut the mustard’ for our latter day[would be]Winston Churchill.

Unless Boris disinters the Withdrawal Agreement of which there is much chatter at the moment. It has to remembered that the Tories are the party of big-business, as demonstrated by Phil the Snake Hammond. Has Boris been got at?

He will call one in October. He will tell the voters the EU is unreasonably blocking the UK’s aspirations – the same old story, it’s their fault, not us Brexiters’ fault. But we’ve seen through it now. A raging far right Tory manifesto will lead to disaster at the polls. Boris plans to mimic Farage. How many Westminster seats has Farage’s ugly blame-foreigners ranting won? The Brexit game is nearly up

“5 Even this Parliament would not vote to revoke Article 50…” – but we should be prepared for a Parliament of Quislings to do anything – and then, like Winston before me in another dark hour, I would pledge to die at the barricades with a machine-gun in my hand.

We will leave? – -anyone told the BBC that? – only a few days ago Radio Sheffield’s Toby Foster said straight out that we are NOT. Funded by threat of jail for not paying the license fee, the BBC should be cast loose to live off what they can get. The license is to receive broadcasts – -NOT just biased political broadcasts and repeats from the BBC.

We shall see if Jeremy Marx brings a VoNC. Or if Lee switches to the LDs now that he could see the government have no majority – presumably he was dithering for that reason.

I wonder if moves are afoot with Boris and co to try to bring the likes of Kate Hoey, Frank Field an other independent Labour MPs into a loose form of arrangement, or simply to have the whips talk to people on a vote-by-vote basis.

Or… the nuclear option… to call a vote for a GE. But that needs a 2/3 majority now under the FTPA and with 5.28% in Brecon, I wonder if Labour would actually vote for it.

did you mean Labour and possibly CP in its death throes? Brexit is the world subject ‘trumping’ everything before it. Imagine if California ran a campaign to exit the USA – it is that big a deal on the world stage.

Sir Redwood,
I hope you are right; there were worrying news that Boris is considering offering the EU a modified WA, where the only material change is the deletion of the backstop.
I hope this is fake news, as you said, the backstop is but one of many fatal flaws with this “surrender deal”.
In light of the recent by-election in which we lost to the LibDem’s although the combined Conservative+Brexit party had 49.5%, you may want to consider to Boris that an electoral pact with Farage may not be such a bad idea and certainly shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.

JR – It seems the parliamentary Conservative Party has learnt nothing since it stupidly voted to keep ex-PM May in place. If Tory MPs truly supported Brexit, if they had seen that having two opposite views on the matter was no longer the affordable patch-over convenience they thought it but a poison pill, if they had kicked out the anti-democrats who want to stamp all over the people’s referendum vote in 2016, the Tory MP would have won the Brecon seat by nearly 2,000 votes, instead of losing by unnecessarily giving a full 10.5% share to the Brexit Party.
Support for Johnson remains high – as long as he delivers what he promises, but as we see from their letters to their constituents, we see many Tory MPs trying to face both ways. After May’s turncoat act, the Conservatives will never be fully trusted with the nation’s affairs. And why should they, as they prefer having them decided in Brussels and Strasbourg?
It is now five minutes to midnight. When are your colleagues going to realize the last-chance saloon has already shut its doors?
I am so angry after three years of the government we elected deliberately squandering its time and opportunities, I could spit.

My greatest fear is (1):
1. The EU has made clear it will not re open the Withdrawal Agreement and offer the 21 to 45 months delay in leaving without the Irish backstop.

There will be a fudge. The need for no hard border will be agreed, the Irish backstop will be quietly compromised or dropped, and Boris will attempt to get the rest of the horrendous WA over the line with an inducement of £39 Billion or more. Parliament will vote for this by the 31st Oct, and the 60 ERG hardliners will just draw their heads back into their shells (as many of them did by voting for May’s surrender treaty on the 3rd time of asking) – ‘it weren’t me, Guv’. This is the Cummings way.

The people will not stand for this betrayal (again). Soon after, the government will fall to a vote of no confidence – and General Election. Arise, Sir Nigel.

Hello all,
Well here we are again, we have votes and no one can denie that the votes have always come back with a majority for Leave.

Sadly there are too many Anti Democratic MPs in our Parliament, we have Parliament not working, we still have Democricy not working.

If there is any law left in Westmonster, all those MPs voting Remain all the time, against there constitutes should be thrown out for the Betrayal of the people, and the government who has a duty to this Nation to carry out the wish of the people.

Now will someone find the nuts to make that happen and quick about it.

My money is on T B P , if Boris noes not engage with Nigel Farage then you are finished, I think the Tories are anyway, if you have no control, even of that Twit in the Bank, you deserve what is coming.
Bring on the Election and stop the incompetent mess we look at every day.
T B P is run as a company largely by people who have business backgrounds

Looking at the by-election result – it seems the Tories need to stand down and let the Brexit Party fight parliamentary seats. It is clear that enough people do not trust the Tories to deliver Brexit – and, let’s face it, who can blame them – so they ought to make way for a party that people do trust to deliver Brexit. It would have been very interesting to see how that by-election would have turned out without a Tory standing. Especially one that had been recalled! The arrogance! Your party has a death wish!

my guess is NONE. How many would be de-selected if it went to Central Office? My guess NONE. This is the first problem the CP must remove. Then the 1922 must be revised with current issues taken into account, and be more accountable – including constituency voting on the officials.

It will be political suicide for the Conservatives if we fail to leave on 31st October. Nigel Farage will follow through on his pledge to fight every seat. This will split the vote and we will end up with a coalition of Lib Dem, Greens, SNP and maybe Labour. Brexit will be lost.

We see from the last two by-elections how splitting the vote loses the seat for the majority leave voters. We have one or two more by-elections coming up. Sheffield Hallam, in September, will be closely fought.

Boris Johnson cannot carry on without a General Election for much longer; his slim majority means he will struggle to get his policies through the Commons.

He needs to stop the rhetoric and do a deal with Nigel Farage to allow The Brexit Party to fight the Labour held and the Remainer Conservative seats.

This will allow him to have a strong Government and Make Britain Great Again.

If he makes a good job of the next 5 years then the Conservative Party’s future is secured.

I see the Brexit Party is talking up the possibility of Boris extending beyond Oct 31! What can they hope to gain by this apart from stiffening the sinews of the Prime Minister? If the government sticks to the deadline, then two slices of the current political loaf(the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems)are about to be well and truly toasted!

I fully agree with your comments
I am very surprised that The PM has suggested that we would remain in Transition ,Customs Union and single market for two years
Even more shocked when the Chief Secretary to the Treasury stated there may be a short transition .When was this decided? .Two years is not short !
Is this not the sort of double speak Mrs May so often indulged in ?
This means that the WA warts and all is to be accepted if the backstop is Removed.
Have the voters not had enough of duplicity ? I thought Boris was clear that the WA was dead !
Pleased that there are still MPs like yourself who are prepared to keep your word
Thank you for your efforts

I recently had French friends asking me whether it now was “en avant toute pour le B-day” and collapsing into laughter. Then I got it: “Full steam ahead to the bidet”. At least those were not too concerned by the incoming Brexit Day.

you have never run a business simply, no deal allows the UK government to scrap thousands of import tariffs on non-EU imports, which will reduce prices; to save £39billion; regain control of fishing and to increase the level of democracy in the country.

There is no way voters should vote for the Conservatives or Labour in any General Election in the near future.
If you vote Leave, then vote Brexit Party, and if you vote Remoan, then vote for the LibDems.
The Conservatives are time-wasters and there is no reason to suppose any different.
It was a sickener to see them ask that Tory candidate who had been deselected to stand again in Wales. Kamikaze stupidity in its purest form.
Whatever the Conservatives do now, if we have not left by the end of October, it will only serve to split the Leave vote.
After the end of October, the Conservatives should just die if they cannot deliver Brexit at this late stage.

So, what could possibly go wrong this time? Your problem is – No deal is just a rotten idea, as the people of Brecon and Radnor have told you. If No deal does happen, there will be another referendum within 5 years. But if you’ve really put all your faith in Johnson to deliver it by 31st Oct., you must be desperate!

One thing we’ll have to get used to again is minding receipts for personal items and clothing bought overseas on our trips away especially regarding wrist watches and jewelry – if you are lucky enough? UK customs back in the 1960’s could be quite difficult in carrying out their duties, for instance when it came to declarations for personal effects, so I don’t suppose they will have changed that much- somtime’s you could put a crispy new ten shilling note into your passport and that would settle it- but hope it doesn’t come to that

He may have to ‘stick to it’ in the political sense, but can he deliver it with a majority of one, which is likely to be -1 with another traitor to democracy about to defect.

I suspect he may have to either sit there proposing no amendable legislation until Oct 31, or try to call a GE. If the opposing forces believe that a VoNC could be won and the PM replaced with a stooge, who would attempt to revoke A50, then that’s what they will do.

Let’s hope enough Labour and independent MPs are democratic enough to block that route. It certainly looks as though there is no way to get a deal through both houses without them tacking on ridiculous amendments, so the only option is the nuclear one – wait for WTO on 31/10 and then say to the EU “Ok, we’ve left your trade bloc, now what arrangements would you like?”.

I’m reluctant to discuss these things in public now since the remoaners then start scheming to block any publicly-discussed approach.

P.S. I hope the whip can be removed from some of the remoaners prior to the next GE (Grieve, Lee etc) if they haven’t already gone. Or simply facilitate their associations de-selecting them instead of getting in the way of that as Brandon Lewis did (why is he still in government?).

About John Redwood

John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.