How Oddsmakers Rank the 2015 Tour de France Contenders

Just like any major sporting event, there’s a lot of betting activity around the Tour de France. You won’t see much of it in the US even at major sports books, but numerous European books offer odds on the Tour.

Even as pundits debate whether Alberto Contador can recover from the Giro d’Italia or if Vincenzo Nibali can find form in July like he did last year, the books tell a sometimes-surprising statistical story that’s worth listening to.*

We compiled odds from 10 major sports books on every Tour contender under 100-to-1 odds and averaged them. Then we looked at how they’re trending to see if that might tell us anything. Here’s what it shows.

*NOTE: This piece is intended for fun. We can’t recommend placing money based on this story. If you have, or think you have, a gambling problem, we DO recommend replacing that with riding bikes. It’s more fun, probably cheaper, and a whole lot better for you.

Chris Froome | Team Sky
The 2013 champ is the close favorite to win in a deep field. His recent win at the Criterium du Dauphine gave him a boost, lifting him from close to 3 to 1 odds to nearer to 2 to 1. Bookmakers, like fans, tend to overly prize June results, so we’ll see if this bears out.

Nairo Quintana | Movistar
The little Colombian may not be getting enough respect from the oddsmakers. His high point was last October, when the mountainous Tour route—perfect for his skills—was announced. Since then he’s bounced around slightly, even after going toe to toe with Alberto Contador at the Route du Sud.

Alberto Contador | Tinkoff-Saxo
Contador’s odds improved after his Giro d’Italia win but have slightly slipped since, even after winning the only climbing stage and the overall at the Route du Sud. How can pro cycling’s most accomplished stage racer be only the third-best favorite when he’s got such great form?

Vincenzo Nibali | Astana
Why does the defending champ have just the fourth-best odds to win? Frankly, he’d be even lower if not for last year. Nibali hasn’t shown great form this season. His odds got a small bump in the Dauphine after a solid team time trial and a stint in the break, but faded right when he did in the high mountains. But that’s exactly how 2014 went too, and then he stomped the Tour. He’s top four as insurance; you don’t bet against Nibali.

Thibaut Pinot | FDJ
Don’t look now, but Pinot’s been one of the most consistent GC riders this season and his odds bear that out – never dropping much below 33 to 1. His form is right on schedule with a stage win and a few days in the lead at the Tour of Switzerland. Bettors are thinking he could go a step higher on the podium than his third place last year.

Joaquim Rodriguez | Katusha
Rodriguez’s position on the odds chart matches perfectly with his position on the road. He’s always there, but in his long list of wins there are no three-week Grand Tours. He was as high as a 12 to 1 favorite after winning the mountainous Pais Vasco stage race, but he’s since faded back to more than double that. The books don’t believe he’s a podium threat. Frankly, neither do we.

Tejay van Garderen | BMC
Twice fifth in the Tour, Tejay was still overlooked by most oddsmakers as a serious podium contender until his second place finish at the Dauphine. All season he’s bounced between 50 and 66 to 1 for the Tour, but after being the only rider capable of sticking with (and on one stage, beating) Froome, he’s halved those odds. Among speculative bets, Tejay might be the best deal in the bunch.

Richie Porte | Team Sky
Porte has the distinction of being (barely) the best-rated lieutenant for one of the Big Four. His odds momentum hit its nadir (125 to 1 on Ladbrokes) after injuries forced him to abandon the Giro d’Italia in an awful second week. Bettors are a little sweeter on him now, but not too much. Even if something should happen to his captain, Chris Froome, everyone knows that Porte typically has at least one really bad day in three-week tours. One striking fact: Porte has a broader range than any other rider: as high as 80 to 1 on Bet365 and as low as 25 to 1 on SportingBet.

Rafal Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo
One of the breakout stars of last year’s Tour, the Polish rider won’t get the same free hand unless Alberto Contador crashes out again. But oddsmakers think highly of the young Pole. His rating drifted only when Contador won the Giro and seemed confident about the Tour as well. Majka’s lower standing is not a reflection on him; merely, it says bettors think he’ll be working for Bert.

Romain Bardet | Ag2r-la Mondiale
French cycling’s other great young hope saw his standing jump when he won the Dauphine stage to Pra Loup. In a brief moment of euphoria, Paddypower had him at 25 to 1. Things have since fallen back to earth a bit and he’s considered a podium contender, but an outside shot.

Alejandro Valverde | Movistar
Things have come quite some way since last fall; back then, oddsmakers weren’t even sure Valverde would ride the Tour. Then, this spring he had a superb Classics campaign and briefly shot to as low as 20 to 1. But his Movistar team remained committed to Nairo Quintana, so Valverde sits along with Rafal Majka and Richie Porte in backup-contender status.

Jakob Fuglsang | Astana
You’ve gotta wonder in some respects why Fuglsang is even on this list. His 2015 season hasn’t been great, although he rode strongly on the big mountain stage at the Tour of Switzerland before dropping out with just one day to go. Oddsmakers have been similarly erratic, rating him as high as 33 to 1 as recently as mid-June. Now, he’s strictly insurance territory should team captain Vincenzo Nibali flame out.

Andrew Talansky | Cannondale-Garmin
Another somewhat speculative member of the list, Talansky rode to 10th overall in his first Tour in 2013, and then DNF’d last year after fighting through crashes for a week. His national time trial title moved the needle not an inch for oddsmakers, and even his 10th overall at the Dauphine barely budged things. Bettors want to see more consistent results before they put serious cash on him.

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