Monday, April 14, 2014

Tweaks to the playoff seeding system prior to the 1994 regular season awarded division winners with the top three spots in each conference, saving the final five positions for the next highest finishing teams. In the 19 seasons since, a division champion has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals every year but one, winning 15 of 19 times.

Realignment before the 2014 regular season reduced the number of divisions in each conference (from three to two) and introduced a revised playoff structure with teams playing through their division (with possible wildcard exceptions). For the purposes of this post we'll continue to ascribe conference standings to team seeding to test the importance of regular season finish on postseason performance.

The chart below describes Cup Finals since 1987 by seeding and outcome.

In short, unless you're the Devils, Penguins or unprecedented Kings, your best bet to sip from Lord Stanley's mug in the modern era rests with clinching your division (15 of 19 winners), leading your conference (7 of 19 winners) and taking the Presidents' Trophy (6 of 19 winners). That way, you'll have history on your side.

Cinderella teams tell an inspiring story but statistics show that clubs seeded 6th through 8th rarely qualify for the Final (8 of 38, 21% chance to qualify) and almost never go home a winner (1/38, 3% chance to win).