Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Mosul Campaign Day 203-204 May 7-8 2017

Red areas show where Iraqi forces have recently moved into
in northern west Mosul (Ninewa Media)

The new thrust into northwest Mosul resulted in more
victories for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). On May 7, Harmat
Thaniya, Tammuz
30 and Wadi
Akab were attacked, and there was a second day of fighting in the Tammuz
17 neighborhood with more in Harmat 1 and Mesherfa
that were freed the day before. The Islamic State often re-infiltrates into
areas, so that could be expected. On May 8, Wadi
Akab, Ghanem al-Sayid, and Shuqaq
al-Harmat were liberated, and Tammuz 17 was
still being fought over. More Iraqi units were being shifted from the center of
the city to the north to push the advance further. The two Tammuz neighborhoods
was where the Islamic State was constructing a defensive line
to confront this new line of attack. The insurgents have done most of their
fighting with small units. Those were all in the center of the city. This new
front spreads out IS’s forces, which is why the ISF have been able to move
forward so quickly.

The 9th Division is leading the charge in
northern Mosul and is supported by American forces. The 82nd
Airborne Division has advisers
with the Iraqi soldiers and they could be seen working with them. Under the
Trump administration the U.S. has been able to move their advisers closer to
the front. Usually Coalition Special Forces are forward deployed with the
Iraqis calling in air strikes and providing assistance.

Since the start of May more people are flowing out of Mosul
than returning. From May
5-6 the United Nations recorded over 11,000 people arriving in Hamam al-Alil,
south of the city, which is the main checkpoint for the displaced (IDPs). In
comparison from May 3-4 only 975 people left IDP camps. Since May 3 all the
bridges across the Tigris River have been closed due to flooding. That has cut
off Hamam a-Alil from east Mosul. Most of the people coming out of west Mosul
are sent to Hamam al-Alil, register, and then move on to east Mosul to be
closer to their homes. They now must take boats to get across the river. In April,
there was a slight lull in fighting prompting thousands of people to leave the
IDP camps and head towards their homes. That has since been reversed.

Mixed Migration Platform did a survey
of IDPs from northern Iraq staying in Kurdistan and Ninewa. They talked with
339 people in homes in Dohuk and Irbil or in camps in Haj Ali and Khazir. The
overall findings, were that few people were happy with their situation and
treatment. 67% of respondents felt that their most important needs, money, food
and healthcare were not being met, and 52% believed that the resources that
were available were not going to those most in need. The Displacement Ministry
is supposed to provide cash payments to IDPs. 80% felt that this process was
not being handled well with 69% saying they had not received any money at all.
Only 6% were happy with the system. People were divided over services. When
asked whether they were fair, 17% said not very much, 18% were neutral, 27%
said mostly yes, and 9% were completely satisfied. Lack of jobs was another
major concern with 38% saying they were not able to make a living, 27% said there
was not much employment, and only 16% saying they were happy with the
situation. 69% told the organization they didn’t feel they were going to be
able to find any work at all. When asked whether they could find information on
assistance available from organizations or the government 31% said not at all,
17% said not very much versus 18% mostly, and 3% completely. 27% said they
didn’t know. The main information they wanted was how aid was being
distributed, how to get notices in general, and where jobs, supplies and health
care were. 64% responded that they didn’t know where they could move after
their initial displacement. A few months ago, all the camps south of Mosul were
full, and there was space in Kurdistan but the authorities were not telling
people. 83% said they didn’t know how to make suggestions or file complaints to
the government or aid agencies. The only real positives in the survey was that
97% felt they were safe where they were, and that aid groups, the government,
and security forces treated them respectfully. The overall results were that
IDPs felt completely helpless in their situations. They didn’t know how or
where to get aid, were pessimistic that they could support themselves, and believed
they were stuck where they were.

The Financial
Times ran a piece on what will happen in Ninewa after the Battle for Mosul
is over. One big issue is reconciliation. Some aid groups have put forward some
programs on that topic in other parts of Iraq, but they have failed to
accomplish many results. In a central Iraqi town for instance, an aid group
paid money to allow people suspected of being IS sympathizers to move back,
only for them to be kicked out a few months later. Most politicians and
non-governmental organizations think that Ninewa needs reforms as well, but no
one agrees on what form they should take. Some are pushing for federalism, while
others want more districts to promote greater autonomy. Both the Ninewa and
central governments are against federal regions, and there’s no consensus on
how many districts should be created or where to draw the new lines. In Iraq,
disagreements usually lead to the maintenance of the status quo. Provincial
elections are scheduled for this year, which could inject some new blood into
the debate, but those are probably going to be postponed until next year.

About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com