RAIN, RAIN  the welcome exception

7 inches of rain falls in first quarter of 2012; maybe 7 more in second

Cynthia Esparza/Standard-Times file
Rain has been an unexpected but welcome addition to the ambience of many San Angelo events since the beginning of the year, including the annual San Angelo Stock Show & Rodeo parade in February, where Lexie Wheeler, of the San Angelo Roller Girls, brought some extra protection against the damp while riding on the club's float. The city has received almost 7½ inches of precipitation since the beginning of the year, placing 2012 in the top four years since 1867 for first quarter rainfall.

It's been a surprising start for 2012. The rain has astonished everyone, not least the weather experts.

The months of January, February and March had the skies shed nearly 7½ inches of rain on San Angelo, making it the fourth-wettest first quarter since record keeping began in 1867 and one of only four years during the past 145 that had rainfall greater than 7 inches in the first three months of the year. It's double the average and seven times more than the city got during the first three months of 2011. Online editor's note: for a database of all available records of rainfall since 1867, click here.

Forecasters were expecting another dry year because La Niña — unusually cold water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean — usually means a dry winter, and La Niña was building up again at the end of 2011, capping a year of scant rainfall with the prospect of yet more aridity.

"We were probably looking at it being a drier period based on the second year of La Niña, kind of expecting more of the same situation," said meteorologist Nick Reimer, of the San Angelo National Weather Service office. But this year, so far, has proved to be the exception.

"There are other cycles in the atmosphere, large scale, that can affect large portions of the globe, but they're not quite as well understood as El Nino-La Nina," Reimer said. "It's only a handful of cases when it's actually wetter. It's not unheard of, but it's very rare."

The first quarter could signal that next quarter also is looking pretty good, Reimer said, but it's also possible there could be no rain for three months.

However, the National Weather Service Climate prediction center three-month outlook right now looks normal for the next three months, a quarter that ordinarily brings about 7 inches of rain to San Angelo.

"We are hopefully going to see some nice rainfall this quarter," Reimer said.

Statistics are encouraging; the top 36 years since 1867 for first quarter rainfalls followed that with above-average second quarter precipitation.