NFL Predictions

Football Picks

The hardest thing for any sports bettor is trying to pick the right football team, whether it is for winning, beating the point spread, or any of the other types of bets. Being able to consistently pick teams that have higher chances of winning is the main goal. However, it is impossible to constantly pick the winners and although the bettor should always strive for perfection, it shouldn’t become the main driving force. So, what a bettor should strive for is not a perfect record, but instead a winning ratio each week or round of betting. Bettors will still make money with this type of system, since they may lose some bets, but they will win more than they lose. There are some factors that influence the bettors when they are trying to pick the right NFL team. These factors are research vs. instinct, and fun vs. profit.

Research vs. Instinct

This has been a widely debated topic, whether a bettor should depend solely on their research or on their gut instinct when trying to pick a winning team.

Research

A bettor that uses this method will most likely be the rational thinking types that will use the resources available to them to make a well-thought out decision. These resources include the news and the statistics that involve specific like team and player stats. They will analyze and compile statistics and data regarding each team, and then using mathematical analysis, they will see which team is better positioned to win the match. These types of bettors will tend to ignore public opinion and hype, as they believe it has no basis in deciding which team will come out the victor. Finding out how to properly use these stats is also a must, you can read the How to Read Football Team Stats* and How to Read Individual NFL Player Stats* articles.

Ever take an exam and circle one answer, but then change it at the last second because your brain got in the way, and then realize that your initial prediction was actually the correct one? When a better selects based on instinct they are letting their gut lead them, and ignore what their brain is telling them. This could be construed as fortune telling or basing a decision on inexplicable phenomena. There are some bettors that use this tactic as they trust their gut more than their brain. This tendency has a higher failure rate than the Research type of betting.

The Balance

Even though anything relating to money should not be done on instinct, it cannot go unsaid that sometimes, rarely even, a person gets a strong feeling that one team will beat the other. This is why finding a good balance it crucial when placing bets. The research strategy has a greater chance of picking winners, but there are times when the bettor will feel that one team is better suited to win a match regardless of their stats. This is why I believe that a bettor should use the 80-20 rule; rely 80% of the time on the stats, and when there is an immense feeling, rely 20% of the time instinct. What the bettor needs to realize is that they need to be satisfied with their final decision; if they are not satisfied then betting will become a constant struggle.

Fun vs. Profit

There are all kinds of bettors out there, and they can be put into two different categories, those that bet for the pleasure of it and others that bet in order to make a profit. There is a lower amount of bettors that fall under the Bet for Fun category, but there are some. Betting for fun can also include some of the profit thinking bettors, as there are matches when the bettor just wants to put down money for the fun of it.

For Profit

These kinds of bettors usually have stricter rules when it comes to betting, as they are always thinking about their bankroll. This can be very advantageous since they will be winning a constant or somewhat constant amount of profit from their bets. However, they are less likely to take bigger risks even though they are very confident that the team they have picked will win. Picking a team based on profit is a much more cautious process, and the bettor must be close to certain of the outcome.

There is another type of bettor under this category, and it is mixed with recklessness. These types of bettors are the inexperienced gamblers that instead of thinking things through they will let their emotions get the best of them. It is always important for bettors to remain level-headed. If this kind of bettor loses a large portion of their bankroll, they will try to win it back by betting even more money; that is a terrible strategy. They need to remain calm and use the remaining money they have and place less risky bets, and slowly bring their bankroll back up.

For Fun

There are two kinds of bettors that do it for fun, those that can afford it, and those that do it occasionally. Those bettors with bigger bankrolls will be able to bet for fun, as they can bet on their favorite team instead of betting on the most likely to win. Even if they lose, they will not regret placing that bet. Those that bet for fun on occasion are the regular types of bettors, for profit, that simply want to enjoy the game instead of worrying about which team will win.

The Balance

Bettors should have a healthy balance between these two, as a bettor that is only betting on the NFL for the profit will more than likely have a stressful time; making it into a job. By sometimes placing bets for the fun of it will help relieve some tension and make sports betting much more enjoyable. A bettor doesn’t have to constantly place fun bets, but once every 15 or 20 bets should be enough; and the bets for fun don’t even have to be normal bets, they can be a lower amount.