Chase Headley, coming off his best season by far and soon to return from a fractured thumb, is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season.

The Headley scenarios for the Padres are to 1) trade him, 2) sign him to an extension that consumes some of his years in free agency, 3) hold him until free agency arrives and then weigh what to do.

I’d set a firm course for No. 3. The Padres should neither trade nor sign Headley unless a great – and I do mean great -- deal presents itself.

A trade would make sense only if the return exceeded the value of two draft picks the Padres likely would get for Headley in 2015 and the value of having Headley play for them through 2014. But that’s not all. A trade would send to the fans a bad message: even under new ownership, we will not retain a homegrown core player and good citizen.

Headley would appeal to several potential trade partners, given the scarcity of good third basemen – but the industry as a whole greatly values the type of cheap young talent the Padres likely would seek in return. So getting fair value for a player like Headley is playing against the odds. The Padres would have to be sure they won the trade. If it's close, I'd hold him.

An extension would require both the Padres and Headley to take a leap of faith.

Headley, who I believe is keen on playing for a winner, would be buying into the team’s optimism for 2015 and far beyond, even if the evidence is thin, at least today, that the Padres are building a consistent winner and can (or will) pay big salaries for other core players if need be.

The Padres, meantime, would be betting that Headley’s incredible second half to the 2012 season was a sign of what’s to come.

Headley said he learned to “backspin” the ball, creating better carry. Luis Gonzalez, the former Diamondbacks slugger, said as much after his own power numbers soared late in, and past, his prime years. I'm not ruling out that Headley can go Gonzo, but I'd want to see more evidence before offering him a massive deal.

So, play the waiting game. Moreover, be willing to go to November 2014 without a move.

Two more seasons together would give both the Padres and Headley information to make a better decision.

If the Padres are to make a big commitment to a player who'll be 31 early in the 2015 season, when his extension would kick in, knowing more about his true power and durability can only help.

Headley, for his part, would have a much better idea whether the Padres youth movement has legs.

Sure, Headley in November 2014 could attract a bidding war. He could leave the Padres as a free agent.

In return, the Padres would get two draft picks. Warm beer, perhaps. But draft picks are only increasing in value under the sport’s labor pact that went into effect last year. Compensatory draft picks are becoming more scarce.

Here's what the Padres should not do: feel boxed in. Among some baseball executives, there's a notion that, "if we let a good player walk, it's the wrong thing to do." That a team has to get "something" instead of letting the player walk. I think that's the wrong mindset these days, with even the Yankees clinging to young cheap talent.