AS Christmas sales stagnate and retail stocks sink, retailers are holding on to one hope – that the weekend before Christmas will save them.

The conventional wisdom among desperate store operators is that shoppers are waiting longer to do their holiday shopping, often waiting until the Saturday before Christmas Sunday.

So far, so good. It’s true that the last days before Christmas are frequently busier than the Thanksgiving weekend, which used to be the heaviest shopping time of the year.

But this year, retailers are saying, the last weekend before Christmas is even more crucial than usual. Since Christmas falls on a Monday, goes the thinking, shoppers know they’ll have Saturday and Sunday to shop. That extra day is making them feel so leisurely, virtually every shopper is now waiting until the last second.

There’s just one problem with that scenario. A lot of people who follow the retailing industry say it’s bunk.

“People have a certain amount to spend and a slightly different timetable won’t affect that,” said Bob Buchanan, a longtime retail analyst at A.G. Edwards. “The die is cast. The business has been slowing throughout the year and it stems from two factors: That Greenspan raised interest rates six times, and oil prices are up year over year 25 to 30 percent.”

“I think it’s just more desperation,” said Candace Corlett, a retail consultant at WSL Strategic Retail. “The core of the problem is the fact that there is so little that is new or innovative. It’s unfortunate, because consumers have money to spend. It’s not jitters, it’s just boredom.”

Even if shoppers turn out in droves and shop furiously on the 23rd and 24th, it may be too late to save the retailing season. That’s because many retailers started holding sales the day before Thanksgiving and haven’t stopped since. They seem to have decided that if they lower their prices, they’ll make up the difference in volume.

“Retailers hit the panic button the third week in November. This is by far the most widespread and intense promotionalizing I’ve seen in the 17 years I’ve been following the industry,” said Buchanan.

Short-term, the tactic could work. Sales numbers could plump up nicely. But that won’t make the retailers money, and it won’t impress Wall Street.

“The last few days there will be an acceleration of business,” says retailing consultant Walter Loeb. “They just won’t be the most profitable.”