On 2 October 2012 Vladimir Putin published an article, entitled “A new Integration Project for Eurasia” in which he set out his visions for the future of Russia and the former Soviet Republics.

His vision was simple and optimistic. He hoped to establish a powerful association of independent states capable of becoming one of the poles of the modern world that would serve as an efficient bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific area.

Its member states would be linked by a customs union and cooperation reaching from services to capital flows, free labour movement, technical standards, patents, economic and currency policies, a development bank, a court of justice, a joint Commission and other supranational components.

Basically, the vision mirrored the EU. No surprise therefore that it also aimed at joining hands with the EU to establish a huge free trade area reaching from Lisbon to Vladivostok. But the EU did not pick up the “offer” being not allured by Putin’s vision which contrasted too much with the real policies pursued by him.

Though the idea goes back to the 1990 s the EAU has not progressed the way the Kremlin had hoped for.

The number of member states has not increased beyond the three founding countries, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Under pressure from Moscow tiny Armenia, heavily dependent on Russian security, had to accept joining in 2013. The central Asian countries – Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan- are still not keen on membership. Nor are Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova, let alone Ukraine, seen as a crucial element.

Cooperation has not advanced much beyond free trade. No comparison with the internal EU market, which is huge compared to that of the three EAU countries.

For Putin it must have been painful to see how the former Soviet Republics refused to accept his courtship in favour of the much more attractive European Union, where small countries have nothing to fear from big ones bullying them or ignoring their interests. Feeling himself as a “modern zsar” Putin failed to address the structural fault lines of the EAU, the overwhelming Russian dominance, the absence of the rule of law, independent judiciary and democratic governance.

No doubt, his pride must have been hurt by the lacking success of his “geostrategic baby” which was to replace the Soviet Union, in his eyes the biggest geostrategic catastrophe of the 20th century.

This may also explain his reactions to the Ukrainian shift toward Europe. If he succeeded to “recover” the Donetsk basin, Ukraine’s industrial core, he might succeed in winning even more support from the nationalist majority at home. But at what costs for him and Russia? And how often can he play that trick?

Rather than pursuing the mirage of a Russian-dominated Eurasian Union his successors would be well advised to follow a more realistic approach of a Eurasian free trade area with the EU, fully based on the rule of law, independent judiciary, personal freedoms and democracy. But for this to happen Russia would have to undergo profound political and constitutional changes that are not in view.

Comments

Geopolitical war FOR UKRAINE: Chinese track .
Arayik Sargsyan , Academician, President of the Academy of Geopolitics ,
Honorary Consul of Macedonia to Armenia.
Within the » law of the jungle » that the U.S. established in international politics since 1999, Russia attaches itself to the Crimea, when it is even more shattering late -Washington world order , extending the consequences of the Kosovo precedent , when it is not only contrary to international law to separate one part of the country from the other , but even attach it to another country. Thus, 15 years after the U.S. and NATO aggression against Yugoslavia , the consequences of the aggression , caught up as the modern world order , and present-day Ukraine . In this regard , Russia actually nothing new comes up , it just copies the American methodology and approaches in the conduct of its imperialist policy. At the same time Russia is quite natural indicates that it does not do anything out there to not do other major imperialist powers , and when she was denied the right to do it, it is reasonable to begin to beat the topic of double standards , when one is why it is possible, while others can not . And in this respect , as part of this competition, it looks more convincingly than pathetic references to the constitution of Ukraine Merkel trampled coup and moaning Obama on violations of international sounding from the leader of a country that international norms of Yalta-Potsdam and late- Washington world order trampled decades. Media around the world and internet literally exploded information on events in Ukraine. Analyzing these data and the opinion of some experts , the basis of what is happening all see the contradictions between Russia and Western countries . This is some deep-seated fetish. Russia , as well as the USSR , simply must be the enemy of the West. It’s just an axiom that can not be proved, and, furthermore, it is not necessary to prove. In addition , it is difficult to believe that a bunch of hooligans , published on Maidan managed without outside help blow Ukraine. Yanukovych , to put it mildly , did not really like . But Ukraine and its power, certainly before the uprising sufficient capacity to deter people from rebellion for a long time . But it turns out that a much stronger global players time limit ended . In autumn last year was announced meeting of world leaders on climate . After this message, the supreme leader of China for one day flew to California to meet with the U.S. president. There’s the official version , they discussed issues of corruption . Last winter was difficult , especially in North America . The U.S. has a very weak municipal infrastructure . Therefore, reduction of energy consumption in the U.S. is not only almost impossible , but also requires an increase . Once the United States had already decided the issue of uranium deficit arising due to closure of the HEU — LEU fuel for which 50 % of U.S. nuclear power plants supplied from Russia, very rigid manner by staging a nuclear explosion in the ocean with subsequent destruction of the Fukushima nuclear plant . It was necessary to select uranium from Japan. Away ! After stopping 50 nuclear units in the eastern U.S. — and it is not in delirium dream . So the whole world without any objections and comments had to swallow it . China has long started geopolitical and trade wars for awarding the world’s resources of raw materials, energy resources. China is the last pillar of the Christian Judas — capitalist model of the world economy . Development in the west -Christian Judas economic capitalism is over, went into decline . The global financial crisis which began in 2008 , this acknowledgment. The last bastion of this model of economic development remains China . Labour productivity in agriculture in China has grown . Freed a lot of people . China announced the relocation of 350 million people (almost the population of Europe ) in the city. In addition, China has officially announced its intention to raise the living standards of all Chinese people to an average standard. Today in China of 1.3 billion people normally live only about 400 million Where to get energy? With a deficit of global consumption by 6-7 times no increase energy production to the required amounts due mythical shale and similar chimeras impossible. It is necessary to select someone as well as uranium and Japan . Under the peace can not take. Need a «new Fukushima .» Californian meeting was dedicated to fixing this circumstance. As a » new Fukushima » Future Ukraine . That she will make that «tsunami» that will blow a new victim — Europe. For security of supply 350 million Chinese , energy can be taken only from Europe. To reorient Russian energy supplies to the east requires geopolitical crisis , a local war . Pipes from Russia to Europe go through Ukraine. They must blow fighters » right sector » of Ukraine . Therefore, Yanukovych could not do anything with a handful of hooligans , bought with U.S. money . To smooth the situation ( to supply closest to the heart of the Germans and the British) was built in advance «Nord Stream» on the bottom of the Baltic Sea , although the surface is much cheaper . The event began in the spring, in anticipation of summer , when energy needs are not as sharp. A fall has already taken place on the conversation will be short. Yarosh already announced the need to blow the pipe. He knows his business. Seemingly sudden and drastic solution to the Russian leadership about annexation of the Crimea and unmotivated dangerous gamble , how about some Democrats scream . In fact, the Crimea is almost too easy . Ukraine and Russia are the largest producers of grain, and especially in the long term . Therefore, China is going to build the largest deep sea port near Sevastopol . When (at) Ukraine end anarchy , hence sea grain goes to China. This has already been without diplomacy , directly in Beijing April 16 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said none other than the leader of China! Today, Russia is ready to sign a mega- deal to supply gas to China , leaving the Europeans in the cold. And a number of other transactions in the same preparation. At that time , as Europe frantically trying to find alternative sources of energy in case of Gazprom will be reduce exports of natural gas to Europe (instant spike in gas prices in Ukraine by 40% may be a better indicator of the possible consequences ) , Russia is preparing to announce energy deal with any none other than China — a step that can trigger a wave of geopolitical turmoil worldwide , linking the two peoples raw cooperation. That is assumed can serve as a foundation for the emergence of a new reserve currency , to provide raw material assets , bypassing the dollar. It also follows from the statement of Finance Minister Siluanova that Russia can do without external borrowing in the current year . In other words, instead of selling Russian debt securities to the West , whose funding provides China buying U.S. Treasury securities , decided to appeal directly to the source. Russia goes to rescue Christian Judas economic development model of humanity , saving Chinese capitalism . Reuters explains that seems to happen in the near future : Igor Sechin recently gathered media representatives in Tokyo to warn Western governments that the tightening of sanctions against Russia for the seizure of Moscow Black Sea peninsula in Ukraine would be counter- productive. The leitmotif of the statements of Russia’s largest oil company is clear: if Europe and the U.S. isolate Russia , Moscow will turn to the East for business expansion , new energy deals , military contracts and political alliances . For Moscow — a deal to supply natural gas to China , which is now , apparently , is nearing completion after several years of negotiations . If it will be signed during the forthcoming visit of Putin in May in China , it will be an indicator of bias power pole on the east, as well as a sign that Russia no longer needs the West . In concluding , I must say , and that Crimean game played , but Ukrainian Party continues fighting the U.S., Russia and the EU in the territory of Ukraine is decaying a much more rigid than the rather half-hearted attempts to prevent the U.S. and the EU accession of Crimea to Russia . What will happen in the south- east of Ukraine , will depend primarily on its residents, who must understand that without an independent struggle , they will not help the Russian Federation . Putin is quite clearly meant…

Thoughts on energy and climate, the Mediterranean and whatever comes to mind.

About: Rhein on Energy and Climate

Eberhard Rhein has devoted most of his life to European and global issues. During the 1980s and 1990s, he served successively as chef de cabinet to the Commission VP in charge of external relations and director responsible for the Mediterrranean and Arab world.

For the past 10 years he has focused more on global environmental issues.

He also gives a course on economic policy at the "Mediterranean Academy for Diplomatic Studies" in Malta. He is the author of many articles on EU, Mediterranean and international subjects