NEW YORK, FISCALLY SOUND, MAY BE PRESSED BY UNIONS

Published: May 24, 1987

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The city has indicated that it will offer a 1.5 percent increase, a figure the unions dismiss as a meaningless opening ploy. Each percentage point increase in any settlement with the municipal unions costs the city, and thus, the taxpayers, an additional $91 million, according to the city's budget director, Paul Dickstein. No union demands have been announced yet.

An intangible and so far unmeasured factor in the talks is the influence of the Mayor. ''Ultimately, it's the Mayor who determines how the city will deal with the unions,'' said an economist close to the negotiation process. ''He has to sense the mood of the voters. Will he garner more votes by a 'get tough with the unions' posture, or will he go along with the union demands because he needs them? Sooner or later, he's got to make a political decision on how he wants to use collective bargaining in dealing with the municipal unions.'' A 'Responsible Agreement'

Many observers believe that the continuing revelations of city scandals over the last two years have damaged the Mayor politically, making it impracticable for him to defy the municipal unions' demands. Mr. Koch scoffs at such assertions.

''Watch me,'' he said, confidently. ''I've been through four of these agreements. We'll handle this one like we did the others and we'll get a responsible agreement.''

Some observers insist that there has been too little emphasis on increased productivity in exchange for higher wages and benefits for city workers. ''Over the past six years, real wages have increased 9.2 percent for civilian municipal workers,'' one city official said. ''What should go up to make it a fair deal for the taxpayers? Productivity. But it hasn't.''

As in the past, the uniformed unions are expected to wait until the Patrolmen's Benevolent Association has settled and then to accept similar terms. ''There have been a few preliminary talks,'' an association spokesman, Dennis Sheehan, said, ''but no numbers have been discussed.''

Several of the unions, including the teachers' union and District Council 37, argue that because of sacrifices they made in the fiscal crisis, they are still trying to ''catch up.''

The city, or at least Mr. Linn, maintains that if there is any catching up to do, it is in services to the taxpayers. ''There is a tremendous need,'' he said. ''Police, sanitation, hospitals, education, human resources - these are just a few of the areas where we're behind.''

''Of course,'' he added, ''we can't ask the city employees to bear the full brunt of these service needs. All these demands - service improvements, wage increases, and don't forget tax cuts - they all compete, and the end result has got to be reasonable compromise.''