Analyst: Sinaloa cartel losing power in Juárez

The Carrillo Fuentes drug-trafficking organization, with its enforcement arm La Línea, is moving to regain the El Paso-Juárez corridor from the Sinaloa cartel, whose power in Juarez is eroding quickly, according to a terrorism and security analyst from the Texas-based private intelligence firm Stratfor.

"We began seeing the weakening of the Sinaloa cartel and the strengthening of the VCF (Vicente Carrillo Fuentes) cartel and La Línea in Juárez because of the help of Los Zetas cartel since the end of last year," Stratfor's vice president of Tactical Intelligence, Scott Stewart, said.

Stewart was one of the speakers at the second day of the U.S.-México Border Security Summit. Wednesday's conference was at the Doubletree Hotel in Downtown El Paso.

The Juárez Chapter of ASIS International, an organization that provides private security services to businesses all over the world, organized the two-day summit to promote the El Paso-Juárez region to chief security officers and representatives of U.S. manufacturing companies.

During his presentation of "The Border Potential Treats: Intelligence," Stewart gave an update on the trends and dynamics of the major drug cartels in México, including the Sinaloa cartel, the Zetas, Jalisco Nueva Generación, the Gulf cartel, the Knights Templar and the Beltrán Leyva organization.

The Sinaloa cartel, which battles for turf with the Carrillo-Fuentes drug-trafficking organization, leaving more than 10,000 dead in Juárez since 2007, still controls almost all Chihuahua state.

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However, Los Zetas, which are the second largest drug-trafficking organization in México and the Sinaloa cartel's biggest rival, has begun to help the Carrillo Fuentes cartel in moving illegal drugs around the El Paso-Juárez border in an attempt to regain control of this plaza, Stewart said.

He said that it is unknown how long the Sinaloa cartel is going to resist, but so far this year there has not been a considerable increase of violence in Juárez like in the past years.

"We think it is because the Sinaloa cartel's control over Juárez is eroding quickly," he said.

Stewart explained the Sinaloa cartel was hit hard with the killing in December of Gonzalo "El Macho Prieto" Inzuza, who was believed to be one of the chief cartel leaders. It was also impacted by the arrests in January of enforcer José Rodrigo Aréchiga Gamboa "El Chino Antrax" and ultimately the capture in February of the cartel's leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán.

"Once those guys are out of the picture it makes it more difficult for the Sinaloa cartel to project military power, so we think that is what is helping to keep down the violence," he said.

He predicts that the murder rate in México will continue decreasing and the overall violence will not increase significantly in the next months. However, there could be spikes of increased levels of violence in the states of Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Sonora and Baja California as the Sinaloa cartel tries to maintain control.