Labour Poll in Dublin SE

A very good source has let slip (in a vague manner) the outcomes of an internal LP poll in Dublin SE to me (I won’t go into the reasons that he shouldn’t as it would identify both of us). It’s good news for LP (if accurate) even with vague figures. Quinn is coming in at 30%, Humphries is second “just under a quota”, Creighton is safe for the third seat, not too far off the quota, and Andrews is taking the last seat.

Murphy (FG2) polls OK, but not in contention, but doing much better than Gormley, who apparently is in the margin of error. The Gormley vote being so low surprises me, I have to say, although it does support what I’m constantly being told by people who live there. Currently, I give him the benefit of a “leader’s bonus” in the spreadsheet, but if there’s (more reliable) corroboration of his decline, I think I’ll remove this tweak. Certainly this would have to be a total rogue (lovable or not) for him not to be in serious trouble. The difference in his vote appears to largely inflate the LP pile, which of course makes it slightly suspicious, given it’s a LP poll. Although it is noticeable that all the constituency polls leaked by FF and FG also put LP at levels higher than RedC would give them.