Monday, August 19, 2002

Strong Men

Dan takes at look at HR/BIP rates for a few of today’s players.

Last week, after I asserted that Mark McGwire was the most powerful hitter
ever, there was a lot of discussion regarding my use of a certain statistic,
HR/BIP. With that in mind, I decided to take a deeper look at that stat by exploring
how certain current players are doing in that category, how it compares to their
past, and what it means for their present and future.

HR/BIP is calculated using the formula HR/(AB+SF+SH-SO). Because sacrifice
fly data varies in availability, cross-era comparisons in this stat are problematic.
Here, as stated above, the focus will be on active players, many of whom have
done very well in HR/BIP. Here are the top ten single-season rates through 2001:

Four of the top 10 rates ever were set in 2001, by McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Jim Thome. While McGwire has retired, it certainly makes sense to look at how the other three hitters are doing so far in 2002.

Barry Bonds

When Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs in 2001, he posted an astronomical .190 HR/BIP rate, which was far higher than anyone else except Mark McGwire had ever reached. Everyone, of course, noticed the spectacular power Bonds had showed. What fewer noticed was that his power surge was not at all new. In 2001, he was 36 years old, and his HR/BIP rate was the second best ever at that age, behind McGwire’s age 36 season. But Bonds already owned the second best marks ever posted by a 35-year-old and a 34-year-old (both, of course, behind McGwire). While his 2001 season took his power to a new level, it also came after his two best power seasons to that point.

In 2002, Bonds is showing much less power than he did in 2001, and he will probably never approach that high a rate again. However, he will likely end the season with—of course—the second highest rate ever by a 37-year-old, behind Mark McGwire.

One thing I’ve noted in the past about the fantastic season Bonds had last year: his batting average on balls-in-play was a very low .266, similar to that of Rey Ordo?ez. This year, however, Bonds is posting a .323 rate, which is his best ever. As a result, he’s hitting a career-best .357, and the difference in value between his 2001 and 2002 seasons is far less than his power numbers indicate.

Sammy Sosa

Sammy Sosa is a great power hitter, but it’s important to note that his high home run totals are largely the result of his stepping to the plate so often—which, in and of itself, of course, is commendable. In every year from 1998 to 2001—his biggest home run years—Sosa had more plate appearances than McGwire, Bonds, or Thome have ever had in a single season. As a result, Sosa’s rate stats are not quite as strong as the latter hitters’ (though they are still absolutely spectacular).

Sosa followed a relatively disappointing 2000 with his best season to date. But his 2002 so far has not met the standards of his best campaigns. Still, Sosa can be expected to be a consistently great power hitter for some time, and one of the most valuable hitters in the game, especially if he can continue to post over 700 plate appearances a season.

Jim Thome

Jim Thome is, of course, the least heralded of these hitters. However, his recent numbers show that he belongs in this elite group:

Thome showed more power at a young age than Bonds or Sosa, and he is now beginning
to come into his own even more. His 2002 so far has been even better than his
incredible 2001, and he leads the majors commandingly in all three of the above
categories. If he keeps his current rate up, 2002 will put him again in the
top 10 of all time (pushing his 2001 season off). Thome’s 2003 season could
be very interesting. If I had to predict the next player to hit 60 home runs,
he would be my guess. The tantalizing prospect of Thome’s power improving further
(Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire all put up their best numbers after age 31) adds an
extra dimension to the speculation about whether he will stay in Cleveland.
Others Alex Rodriguez will be fun to watch. So far, his numbers have
been very good, given his age.

While he has yet to show the power of the above hitters, his numbers look good
when compared to their numbers at similar ages. He may never dramatically improve
to their level, but it’s certainly not impossible, and either way, his power
is already excellent, especially for a shortstop.

Erubiel Durazo

And, finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out what Erubiel Durazo had done
so far this year in a very limited number of plate appearances:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Just curious...you point out that Barry's BA/BIP was in the .260 range last year, and is around .350 this year. Considering Voros McCracken's work that shows that pitchers don't have much control over BA/BIP, have you come to any conclusion that hitters do or don't? And just to clarify, your BA/BIP does include HR's, or not? Thanks, Dan.