If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

"Average" vs. rate

Perhaps some of the more math inclined peeps can set me straight here. Apologies if this seems like another one of my "streak" threads; I'm not intending it to be!

What I wonder, what does one think of when they hear "batting average?" I know stats like BA, OBP and whatnot are sometimes referred to as "rate stats" but do they really measure rate or do they just measure average after the fact?

For example:
If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he'll get 3 hits?

OR

If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he has a 30% chance of getting a hit in each plate appearance?

Re: "Average" vs. rate

Originally Posted by nate

Perhaps some of the more math inclined peeps can set me straight here. Apologies if this seems like another one of my "streak" threads; I'm not intending it to be!

What I wonder, what does one think of when they hear "batting average?" I know stats like BA, OBP and whatnot are sometimes referred to as "rate stats" but do they really measure rate or do they just measure average after the fact?

For example:
If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he'll get 3 hits?

OR

If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he has a 30% chance of getting a hit in each plate appearance?

AND

Is there a difference?

A .300 hitter has gotten a hit 30% of the time.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: "Average" vs. rate

I suppose that raises the question of whether there are any predictive stats. You'd rather have Joey Votto at the plate than Juan Castro, but what predicts what either will do in this one next instance?

Re: "Average" vs. rate

I don't see any difference in a guy who is 1-2 in the game already. Doesn't really mean he's going to go 1-2 in his next two ABs.

Would you rather have someone who is 3-10 off a certain pitcher over a guy who is 0-7? On one hand you say, okay... he's had some success. But then you can say, but this other guy is due for a hit. The game of baseball is all about progressing, changing, learning and getting better which is why I hate those batter vs. pitcher stats, or team vs. team stats. I don't believe them to be predictive atall.

Re: "Average" vs. rate

A 30 percent chance each time up would tend to have some predictive power, but it's not a weather report. Does he have a 100 percent chance this time up and zero percent the next two times up? But what are all these stats for if not to give you an idea of who you want in a certain situation? Adjusting of course for small sample sizes and the enemy, whose stats get a vote too. Joey Votto's performance, over time, measured in stats, shows we want him instead of Juan Castro.

". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

Re: "Average" vs. rate

Originally Posted by nate

Does it?

That's what I'm asking. I don't think it does.

What exactly are you looking for? Are you trying to differentiate between two players: one who gets say 9 hits in 10 abs and then 0 hits in the next 20 from the player who truly averages say 3 hits every 10 abs? If so look at say the standard deviation instead of the mean (average). Otherwise, average is a rate. It is based upon something, in this case 1.0000.

Re: "Average" vs. rate

Re: "Average" vs. rate

I'm not good at debating all these statitical things in baseball, I'll usually lose. But, I do put stock in average. If a Reds pitcher is facing someone whose had over 150 at bats and his batting average is .308, well I think the guy has a pretty good chance of getting a hit compared to most other players. Maybe he will, maybe he wont, But I think average means something.

Re: "Average" vs. rate

Read The Drunkard's Walk. It's a great, accessible primer on statistics and probability.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most
importantly, enjoy yourselves!

RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball