Gustavo Chacin was uncharacteristically wild, walking a career high six batters in just five innings of work, and the bats couldn't get anything going against the immortal Aaron "Biggie" Small.

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Updated at 3:30 AM!

The Jays had two glittering opportunities to get back into this game, and each ended the same way. With one out and the bases loaded in the fifth, Frank Catalanotto grounded into a 6-4-3 double play. In the next inning, with one out and runners on the corners, Gregg Zaun hit into a 4-6-3 double play. The Jays stranded 9 baserunners. Was that the story of the game?

Well, the Yankees stranded 11 baserunners, and blew a couple of good opportunities the same way. In the very first inning, with two runs in and the bases loaded, Jorge Posada, with a chance to put the game out of reach, hit into an inning-ending double play. In the third inning, after the first two batters had reached, Hideki Matsui grounded into a double play, and the inning ended when Giambi flied out. The Jays only had their opportunities to get back into the game because the Yankees had missed their opportunities to put the game out of reach.

The Yankees got 19 men on base, the Blue Jays just 13. I think that was ultimately more significant than the double plays and missed opportunities, which were even on both sides.

And so, once more, the Jays were unable to salvage a victory after falling behind. Which brings us tonight's truckload of numbers, which of course inflates the Word Count, and makes me look so Very Industrious.

As promised, I was going to prepare a whole lot of data for you all. Because this is so much work, and I'm so tired when I've finished formatting the numbers, I hereby predict that I will provide a very quick and sketchy analysis of it all when I'm done.

I'm leaving that up to you guys!

First, let's look at how AL teams have done in coming from behind in the late innings, and, while we're at it, how they are holding on to a lead in the late innings. As some of you may know, the Toronto Blue Jays, after last night, are now 0-44 when they trail after six innings.

I assembled the data from the pre-game notes each team prepares, which are all posted at mlb.com - their handy-dandy press pass feature - however, some teams only provide this information for after the 7th and 8th innings. So that's what I'm going to use.

I honestly don't think this is the most significant information in the world, so I'm just going to present it with a minimum of comment. See what you think...

Indeed, the Blue Jays rank dead last in coming from behind after 7, and are one of three teams who have yet to win when losing after 8. Still, most of the teams in the league do not pull off this type of victory very often - except for the Yankees and the White Sox. The Yankees are the third highest scoring team in the majors, and have some great veteran hitters. They have the weapons you think would be required. But Chicago's late inning performance is remarkable.

Everybody frets about the bullpen, and carries enough relief pitchers to make building a bench impossible. What has it accomplished?

There is very, very little to choose from here. One wonders just how significant this information is. The Seattle Mariners are one of the best teams in the league at holding a lead, and the first place Angels are one of the worst. The Angels, however, are much, much better at getting a lead in the first place. Which is what it's all about. Pretty well everyone can hang on, once you're in front, except Tampa Bay, and suddenly we see documentation of exactly what Lou Piniella was talking about - the Devil Rays strange case of the Eighth Inning Blues.

The other thing I promised to examine this week was team hitting with runners in scoring position, and in scoring position with two outs. So, first, here are the basic team hitting numbers. decided to rank them by Runs Created rather than actual runs scored. The main reason is because I want to get a measure of how well teams have performed in these situations, rather than how many opportunities they have had. Boston's hitters have had roughly 150 more at bats with runners in scoring position than Washington's batters. Of course the Red Sox have plated more runners in those situations. But have they actually hit better in those situations? (Well, yeah. They have.) Having used Runs Created (the basic version, by the way) for the situational numbers, I used it to rank the overall numbers as well - mainly in the interests of consistency, but it's always interesting to see where the formula varies with the actual offensive production. Hello, Baltimore.

As mentioned, the teams are actually ranked by Runs Created - which is the number of runs we could reasonably expect a team to score with these offensive components. What this suggests is that the Blue Jays have had an efficient offense, at least in terms of getting a maximum number of actual runs on the scoreboard given what their hitters have actually done. (Sometime down the road, I hope to look at another efficiency issue - have they distributed these runs most usefully so as to get the maximum number of actual wins out of this production.) Other offenses that have scored significantly more runs given their offensive output: the White Sox, Oakland, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh. With the exception of the White Sox, these variations are generally within the normal 5% margin of error that Bill James always liked to use with respect to his Runs Created formula. Notable underachievers: Baltimore, the Cubs, and the Diamondbacks. The Cubs and Orioles are underachieving by signifcantly more than 5%. There seems to be something seriously disfunctional about those two offenses.

Here is how teams have performed with Runners In Scoring Position. You will notice that the general hitting performance changes very slightly; however, the OBP increases significantly, as pitchers presumably tend to nibble a bit more and work around certain hitters:

The Blue Jays have hit quite well with runners in scoring position - in particular, their power production increases. It's good to know, but I don't know that it explains why they've scored a little more than the Runs Created formula suggests. The Blue Jays variation is not really statistically signifcant. And I certainly don't think performance with runners in scoring position accounts for the under-achievement of the Cubs and Orioles.

Finally, Runners In Scoring Position with 2 outs. Here we find a significant drop in batting average, and an even larger drop in slugging percentage. The On-Base remains relatively high - presumably the result of more nibbling:

The Blue Jays have not hit well in this particular situation, but I really don't think it means a hill of beans. Well, maybe more than that, but not a whole lot. Mostly, though, I think it's just One of Those Things. Houston hits very very well with runners in scoring position and two outs. Unfortunately for them, the Astros haven't hit particularly well with runners in scoring position and zero or no outs. Toronto's case is the reverse - they appear to have hit very very well indeed with none out or one, and not so well with two outs.

League looked very good in his first two innings of work, though, and while the two runs that scored in the eighth count, obviously, I thought it was the best outing of his that I can remember this year. And Russ Adams is starting to look even better than Hill did right when he came up. Finally (and, I swear, this is the absolute last time I will ever think this,) maybe Hinske's got it figured out.

I'd prefer to start forgetting everything else about this game, if no one minds.

One issue with that list Rob is that when the Jays played their first series with Oakland and their series with Houston, they were among the worst teams in the league. So if you consider their record now, it looks like they lost to good teams, but in reality they lost 5 of 6 to two of the worst teams in the majors. Not sure how big a difference this makes but it should be considered.

Ah, but there the crux, the beauty of baseball, Houston and Oakland were just awakening to their true potential when they played the Blue Jays then.

Alas, tonight's pitcher Small, Joe Journeyman, could have been throwing the game of his life. You just never know, that's why you play the games.

I've been trying to find an eloquent way to put this sentiment, but it's tough. But, in baseball, study of the numbers is so important, yet in the same breath the numbers can be completely brushed aside as irrelevant as the moment is bringing you something entirely new and different, perhaps the beginning of a new direction, or a once-in-a-lifetime occurence that nobody could have anticipated. Scott Downs could throw a perfect game tomorrow.

I'm starting to make myself gag, I promise I'm not the sort to wax on about "the thrill of the grass" and all that sentimental claptrap. I'll stop.

What I like most about study of numbers, is how Wilner put it (if I haven't said it before: Wilner is very, very good): facts -i.e. numbers- often show that things are different than they seem.

Tonight was a pretty dull game to attend in person. I'm skipping tomorrow, back on Sunday; hoping for a better outing then.

One quick thing about Rios error I noticed at the game, I'm not sure if this had already been pointed out on television, it wasn't completely Rios fault. Koskie was stuck at second base puting on the huge shift for Giambi. He didn't have time to get over to third. Matsui noticed that and went to third. League, went over to cover the throw to an empty third base, but wasn't looking at the ball. It rolled right past him and to the wall allowing Giambi to take second.

Another thing is that Reed Johnson seriously misplayed the one shot off the wall, he mistimed his jump. Not Jeter's triple in the first. I believe it was Sheffield's single in the third.

Nice to see a large crowd at the RC, too bad it was filled with loud, obnoxious, annoying fans.

I'd prefer to start forgetting everything else about this game, if no one minds.

I will forever take one thing away from this game: in the eighth inning, when the Yankees fans in our section started to become jackasses (and really, the drunks that come out to Yankees games here give New Yorkers a terrible name), Toronto Dan turned to me and uttered this immortal line:

"They're probably from Mississauga."

I laughed until I had tears in my eyes. The lady in front of me asked what was so funny and I told her, and she laughed and told all the people she was with.

I think that the best putdowns are the ones that the subject doesn't even understand, but that everyone around them does. Good work, Toronto Dan.

And I won RBI pool again, thanks to the fine work of young Russ Adams. Four bucks! It would have been five, but I'm not going to try to collect a dollar from my wife. There's too much downside.

I'm Back! Yes sir, I'm back prematurely and will be at the next couple of games if not the next 6.

Hey! I'm from Mississauga, however I do agree with you. We are abnoxious. How many Yankee fans were there?

Okay, I have some long notes about the last series. I'll put this as short as possible.

-Cleveland is a very nice city, and if there wasn't a Toronto, you'd find me there. A+ of cities!
-The Rock 'n Roll Hall of Fame is missing ALOT.
-The second most frightening thing to see on tv is "Plane Crash". The first most frightening thing is seeing "Live in Toronto". My heart dropped when I heard this. Props to TFD.
-Tour Areas of Chicago are excellent. I had a sneaky suspicion though that 5 blocks East of Michigan Ave. would be much different.

The Game:

-U.S. Cellular is clearly underrated by MLB and Sox fans.
-It's not great, but certainly better than what I was told it would be.
-Its food is the same as the Dome, with funnelcakes.
-The crowds, while loud for the players intros, were no louder than the equivalent number of Blue Jays fans during the game.
-The player intros are *cool*. The crowd gives them a standing O to the tune of "Thunderstruck".
-Don't even think you're going to get away with any cowbell or flags of the opposing team there. The fans are very protective.
-Left my sign in the car, no room anyways, as the facing of the Upper Deck bears ribbon board.
-Excellent Sightlines
-Met Pete Walker before Thursday's game. He says keep up the good work to Cheer Clubbers.
-Russ Adams is a monster. Good show!
-Tickets are slightly more, try to go on a Monday when tickets are half price.
-Iguchi is known as "The Gooch".
-Saw a solid number of Jays fans, in the stadium and even around the city.
-Seat hopping is quite easy to do. My ticket was checked once before I had even entered the concourse and that was it.

-The best part of the trip was hearing this....

"Ladies and Gentlemen, please welcome your 2005 PRIDE CREW!"

Yes! They also have a Mickey Mouse gang dancing, t-shirt throwing, dugout dancing goofballs. Except they have a much more homosexual name. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

I rate U.S. Cellular a '8' and a '9' to the City of Chicago on a scale of 1-10.

Me Grimlock was in 130A tonight, and a section over, some Blue Jays fan REALLY got into it with our Yankee fan guests. He got three separate death threats from three different guys. And the Yankees fans started chanting "We Hate You" to him. Good times!

Tough game all around. They hit into some TIMELY double plays that really prevented from making a game of it in the middle innings, Reed looked totally lost in RF and truth be told, me Grimlock thought he could have made a catch on that fly ball in left that dropped for a single in the 8th, Chacin had trouble throwing strikes (was he getting squeezed by the HP ump?), Cat looked terrible in all three of his at-bats, and was there a more frustrating inning than when they went down three-up, three-down, all by foul out?

Frank Catalonnato seems to have lost his swing after this recent neck injury, though it's only one game I admit.

A funny thing that happened a few seats in front of me, was that these 3 Yankees fans got kicked out for bringing bottles of liquor into the stands. From what I understand, they were ratted out by someone in the box above me (I was in the level 200 outfield seats).

"but I just dealt with a few thousand Sox fans in their house. We can conquer these guys."

I guess KC and Colorado fans are nice compared to those Sox fans over in Chicago. They didn't give me any problems when I was cheering for Toronto(But, of course I wasn't cheering for Toronto agaisnt Colorado, and who knows, maybe at that altitude, some of the Rockies fans might get unruly with me if I cheered for the team agaisnt them).

Hey guys, BRUTAL game. Mainly in light of the expectations I held going in.

I would have visited 518 but the RC it seemed packed everywhere and not good for traveling. Plus, I was a few rows behind home plate. And plus I was in low spirits due to two inning ending double plays with one out and runner in scoring position.

I Know the Jays are pretty much middle of the pack in terms of GIDP. But it seems an awful lot of them occur with runners in scoring position.

Yea, if I were to wear a Minnesota jersey at the Sox game, nobody would've had a problem with me. I was sitting in the first row of section 508 on Tuesday, so 20 rows of Sox fans (and one Jays fan wearing a Catalanotto jersey) saw me wearing my Wells jersey. After the Dye incident, the casual mocking of the Jays turned into "I'm going to kill you" and "Somebody needs to kick your head in". Of course, we won, so I had the final say.

VBF, I was looking for you on Tuesday. I was in 528, so quite a ways away. I was wearing my Halladay jersey and didn't take too much crap. The Dye incident did make me a little nervous though. Too bad you forgot your sign, I was looking for it all game. There were far more Jays fans there than were at Wrigley in June. I even saw whole families of Jays fans in from TO. And yes, the funnelcakes are wonderful.

Magpie, this is great work. Thanks for putting it all in one place. I'd be interesting to see last year's #'s for the 2-out hitting. Is Houston just lucky? Or do their hitters actually have this as a skill?

It is interesting that the Jays have scored more runs than would be expected. One would think that a low HR team would usually score less.

I'd be interesting to see last year's #'s for the 2-out hitting. Is Houston just lucky? Or do their hitters actually have this as a skill?

I just took a very quick peek at last year's numbers (I've got to get out the door in a few minutes) - but Houston did quite well with RISP and two outs in 2004 as well. (So did the Sox, White and Red.)

I hate to read anything into what is really an aggregation of very small sample sizes... but you might expect good veteran hitters to do well in such a situation and the Astros and Red Sox have no shortage of veterans...