Saturday Service Plays

In this SEC vs. ACC showdown we will side with the SEC and Mississippi much the same way we took South Carolina in the opener over Nc State. This isn’t basketball season boys! Lets face it the ACC is really a weak football conference right now and other conferences are going to take advantage of that fact.

In this match up we have a Wake Forest team that should challenge for the Conference Championship but winning within the conference is a different story than winning out of it (just ask Clemson). Wake is coming off a road win over Baylor in which they put up 376 total yards of offense while holding the Bears to just 242 total yards. The Deacons big win is a little misleading though as they benefited from a 98-yard punt return and a fumble return for a touchdown. Baylor is hardly a juggernaut in the Big 12 so we have to say we’re not too impressed with the ‘W’.

Ole’Miss is now under the leadership of Houston Nutt and he already has this team heading in the right direction. The Rebels have a strong-armed QB Snead (a transfer from Texas) running the offense who should have no problems trading points with Wake and their talented QB Skinner in this game. Mississippi is coming off a solid win over Memphis 41-24 in which they rushed for 216 yards and passed for another 222. WR McCluster had 125 receiving yards against Memphis and he now gives the Rebels a playmaker on the outside to go along with a talented, but young backfield.

When playing on or against Wake Forest we typically look at the underdog first and foremost. In fact, the Deacs are just 12-24-1 ATS their last 37 as a chalk, which includes exactly zero covers in their last 10 at home when playing out of conference. When favored by a full touchdown or more Wake is just 2-12-1 ATS their last 15. On the flip side the Bulldogs have a respectable 10-5 ATS run going as an underdog.

When all is said and done, everything points towards a cover by the better team here with Mississippi, maybe even the outright win.

I don't know which way this line will go, but my best educated guess is that it will go upward when it is all said and done. For now it has dropped 1/2 point. That is why I am getting on it now and there is good reason to believe that we will see a large pointspread win by the Jayhawks. I am not one to lay very many large spreads but I certainly will here. Everything went right for La Tech in their home opener with the visiting Bulldogs of Miss State as they failed miserably in that contest. Miss State threw 3 Int's, they has numerous offensive mishaps, not caused by La Tech's D. La Tech was outgained in this game, and they managed just 14 of 40 completions with 2 Int's. They also ran the ball for only about 3 yards per rush. Those same numbers are not going to get them anywhere as they travel to Lawrence Kansas to play a Jayhawk team that was 8th overall in the country on offense production and 12th overall on D last year. This team has 15 starters returning, including very talented QB Todd Reesing. They were an amazing 11-1 verses the spread last year, making them a bettor's dream. With almost the entire D back, I can't see the visiting Bulldogs having much success moving the ball and putting points on the board. I can see Kansas gathering up 40+ points. I think that we will see that. There is great optimism in Ruston Louisiana about the their team. Even former Bulldog Terry Bradshaw is pumped about their chances this year. But, they are coming off one of their largest wins ever, and they are traveling to a venue that could spell disaster. The Jayhawks punished the poor squads last year at home. Baylor caught a 58-10 whooping. Nebraska got blown clean out of the stadium 76-39. Iowa State lost 45-7. Fla Int lost 55-3. Toledo, Southeastern La, and Central Michigan lost by combined scores of 159-20. BINGO!! Let's enjoy this rout.

Look for the Red Raiders behind Heisman hopeful QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree to explode offensively. Nevada has a decent offense but the defense will not be up to stopping the high powered Texas Tech attack.

Seems like a lot of chalk, it is, but the Clubs power ranks have this priced as a bargain.First lets take note Arizona State coach has been money coming off A DD win going 34-13 to the number. In there opener the Sun Devils looked in fine form with QB Carpenter throwing for 388 yards in a 30-13 win over N.Arizona.On the flip side, Stanford won ugly as 2.5 dogs taking down Oregon State, despite being badly out gained, and allowed an amazing 404 yards, through the air. Stanford maybe playing with double revenge losing to the Sun Devils @home last season 41-3 and the year before a 58-3 pounding, but Carpenter is going to have a field day against this secondary. We take note the home team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, Stanford is 3-7 in this price range while Arizona State is a perfect 7-0 in this price range during the last 3 years.

It was not the upset that it would be in most seasons but Michigan did not look good in a home loss to Utah to start the Rodriguez era. The final margin was just two points but the Wolverines were badly out-gained and if not for a few Utah miscues the result would have been an embarrassing lopsided loss.

Miami also started the season poorly with turnovers and special team mistakes digging a hole early. Both teams should have a bit more success moving the ball this week and the experience of Miami heading into the big stage at Michigan might allow for a closer game than the spread suggests. Michigan should be avoided until more progress on offense is shown and the Wolverines have Notre Dame on deck which could mean a flat spot in this game sandwiched in between more marquee match-ups.

The Wolverines also fall into a very negative system for us, as game 2 home favorites coming off S/U home losses are just 3-11 since 2001. Take the points with Miami as the Redhawks have a lot to prove after getting blown out at home last week.

The Bowling Green Falcons return eight starters back on offense, and nine starters back this season from a team that went 8-5 last season, and they have one five out of there last six games, and are on a roll including an impressive win 27-17 at Pittsburgh against the Panthers. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off a last minute win at home against lowly Northern Illinois 31-27 which they were lucky to come out for the win as Minnesota converted a fourth and one with about twenty seconds left to pick up the first down, and then a play later scored the game winning touch down. The Falcons are 3-1ATS vs Big 10 opponents the last three years, and are 52-39ATS when playing on Saturday’s since 1992 while the Minnesota Golden Gophers has struggled against the Mac as they are a terrible 1-3ATS vs Mac Opponents the last three years, and are a dismal 2-6ATS when playing in the month of September the last three years. We here at Great Lakes Sports look for the Bowling Green Falcons to take advantage of the week Minnesota’s defense, and come out with their second win of the season as they will cash in for the home ATS win & cover tonight.

Off an offensive explosion in their opener, the Wildcats look to blow up the Rockets in non-conference collision in Tucson.

This will be Toledo’s first game of the season, a tough road opener in the desert against a Pac-10 foe. Arizona rolled to a 70-0 win over Idaho last weekend, with the 70 points being the most the Wildcats have scored in 87 years. Last season, they finished under .500 for the seventh time in the last eight years, but big things are expected for Arizona this season.

Arizona won the only previous meeting with Toledo back in 1985.

Aaron Opelt is back at quarterback for Toledo after a subpar season. He completed just 58% of his passes and averaged 195 ypg, while tallying 12 TDs and seven INTs last year, and now will be without the team’s leading rusher in the backfield. The Rockets defense was simply horrible last year, giving up more than 39 ppg and were gashed for 215 ypg on the ground.

The Wildcats have certainly not been considered an offensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but that could be about to change. QB Willie Tuitama was very efficient last week, completing 17-of-21 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns. It was a great sign for Wildcats fans, in that Tuitama is working in his second year in Sonny Dykes’ offensive scheme. Tuitama picked up the system rather quickly last year, completing 62% of his passes for 3,683 yards and 28 TDs, and even more great things are expected of him this year.

The Arizona defense was obviously dominant in last week's rout, allowing the Vandals only 112 total yards and seven first downs. And they repeatedly set the table for the offense by coming away with four interceptions, which led to four touchdowns.

The Wildcats should be ready to pounce again here at home, as the Rockets have completely fizzled out in non-conference road games vs. opponents not off 2 SU & ATS losses, going 0-9 SU (-28.9 ppg) and 0-9 (-19.2 ppg).

Arizona has not been a solid home favorite, but this is changing with the offense taking flight. Last week was a sign of things to come, as an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates. It states:

In Game 2, play ON a home favorite of 19½-43 points off a home SU win scoring 57+ points.

Since at least 1980, these system has been perfect, going 8-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg! We also note that teams playing their second game of the season are 4-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) off a SU win and taking on a MAC foe playing its first game of the season.

It looks like a rough start for the Rockets as the ‘Cats go wild once again for a SU & ATS victory.

3* graded play on Oklahoma State - Ai Simulator shows a 70% probability that Ok State will win this game by 16 or more points. AiS also shows that Oklahoma State will have a balanced offensive attack, but due to a strong running game, the pass routes will be available to exploit as well. Oklahoma has an 85% probability of gaining 9.5 yards per pass in this game. This puts Houston into a 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992. AiS reveals a 82% probability that Oklahoma State will ahve a MINIMUM of 450 total yards in offense. Notet hat Oklahoma State is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 67-31 for 68% since 1992. Play on home favorites after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Houston is off a solid game last week winning 55-3 against Southern and recorded just 1 turnover. let’s face it Southern is not much of a measuring stick to how good Houston is this s eason. I do know that Housto is just 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Oklahoma State.

Florida is 10-2 ATS their last 12 Non-Conference games and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 Non-Conference home games. The Gators are 32-17 ATS after allowing 75 or less yards rushing in their last game and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. winning teams. Miami of Florida is 0-6 ATS on the road after one or more straight up wins and they are 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or less points in their last game. The Hurricanes are 1-10 ATS their last 11 games after scoring 41 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON FLORIDA -

The Owls host the Huskies in a non-conference clash at Lincoln Financial Field Saturday afternoon with revenge on their minds. UConn has beat Temple in each of last two meetings in this series but its the Owls that owns the checkbook as they are 4-0 ATS in head-to-head meetings. Both teams opened with big wins last week when Connecticut hammered Hofstra, 35-2, at home whilr Temple annihilated Army, 35-7, at West Point. With the Owls owning 21 starters from last year's team and UConn looking ahead to a revenger with Virginia next week, look for Temple to make it back-to-back wins here this afternoon.

One of our prime axioms in college sports is that when major system changes are made in a program the team is likely to take a step backwards regardless of how good the new coach is. We used that to cash an easy ticket against S.M.U. and June Jones last week, and we see more of the same against Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech here, particularly based on the matchups at hand in this game.

Johnson has brought the complex option packages that were so successful at Navy to the Yellow Jackets, and while he will be successful in time, the transition period will be rocky. It was an ugly spring, with 14 fumbles in one April scrimmage, and then nine in the spring game, and despite running mostly vanilla plays against Jacksonville State last week the offense still fumbled five times, losing two. That was against an opponent that they could push around in the trenches, which kept option plays and passes to a minimum, but now it is an entirely different matchup. Not only are they heading to the road, but Boston College brings one of the toughest defensive front seven’s in the nation. The Eagles were #2 against the run LY despite playing without N. J. Raji (academics) and Brian Toal (red-shirt), but now those two are back to create a wall that will not allow much of anything between the tackles. That means that soph QB Josh Nesbitt will have to make things happen on the perimeter in his first college road start, and also through the air. That is unlikely to happen. The B. C. defense held a more experienced Tech offense to 267 yards in an easy 24-10 road win LY, and now the setting is even more favorable.

The inexperience of Nesbitt is only the beginning of Johnson’s problems, however. There are 16 players on the two-deep chart that have never played a single down on the road, including five starters. And with new systems on both sides of the ball, that means the kind of mistakes that come with youth. There is also a major cluster injury problem at LB, with starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes sidelined, which makes them extremely thin, and will force a pair of true freshmen into action. From Johnson - ”We’re probably going to have our hands forced and we’re going to have to play more of them (freshmen). Just from the standpoint of depth, we just don’t have anybody.”

Because of the inexperience with his playbook Johnson would like to not reach back into his bag of tricks, but he may have to in order to have any chance here. But keep in mind that B. C. defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani was the interim head coach when the Eagles beat Johnson and his Navy team in a bowl game in December of 2006, which meant nearly a full month of studying Johnson’s tactics then, and with many of the same faces still playing for the Eagles, it helps to have them well-prepared now.

Until Michigan's offense can prove they can score enough to cover double digits against anyone I will be taking the boatload of points. Rodriguez has no experience at QB, he has installed a new offensive system and his defense does not look good. Not a good combination for a team to have and be able to cover this big of a line against anyone.

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