2014 NBA Free Agent Analysis – Small Forwards

The most talent in the free agent class of 2014 belongs to the small forwards. LeBron James, who is inarguably the best basketball player in all of the land, leads this group which also includes his would be rival, Carmelo Anthony, and the talented yet aging Paul Pierce and the enigmatic talent of Rudy Gay who still hasn’t quite found his footing as a franchise piece. Whether these players stay with their current teams or decide to move on, a lot of money will be going out to them this summer.

LeBron James

There has been a lot of talk of James opting out and going back to, of all places, Cleveland. If James was 34 years old, instead of 30, possibly, but not in his prime, still part of perhaps the best team in the league. Yes, the Heat are getting old, but the same thing has been said of the Spurs for five years, and they are always right there near the end.

Forecast: Can’t beat the Heat.

Carmelo Anthony

Early Termination Clause | 30 years old | 2013-14 Salary: $21.4M | New York Knicks

Let’s be honest, Anthony has never been able to single handedly carry a team the way LeBron James has. He’s a great player, almost certainly the best all-around scorer in the NBA, but he can’t be the leader, there needs to be a bigger presence for him to have success. George Karl and Chauncey Billups were that in Denver, and that is Phil Jackson’s, now in New York, forte. He’ll still be the man in NYC, and a rumored move to the Houston Rockets or Chicago Bulls wouldn’t provide him with that opportunity. Plus can you imagine James Harden and Anthony sharing the ball?

Forecast: New York Knicks

Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay will be 28 years old to start the next season. That still gives him four or five more years of his “prime.” That said, I don’t think Rudy Gay will command nearly as large of a salary as his player option in ‘14-’15 will amount to ($19.3M). When Rudy Gay was traded to the Kings, he had his best stretch as a pro, and part of it was that his shot selection improved dramatically. Whether he’s figured it out or not, which I think he has, it shows maturity, and because of this he may choose to test free agency simply for the chance to play for a “better” team again. A borderline playoff team or a playoff team with a wing need would be interested if he’s willing to take a pay cut in the $13M-$14M range.

Forecast: Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks

Luol Deng

Deng’s type of offensive game is non-invasive; he’s an easy player to play with, which means pairing him with any sort of ball-dominating offensive player works well. He also plays good defense and is a consummate professional (despite his grumblings in Cleveland, but who wouldn’t?). He seems to fit the mold of a Kobe Bryant running mate, one of the only all-star level wings that could co-exist with him.

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers

Paul Pierce

Unrestricted | 36 years old | 2013-14 Salary: $15.3M | Brooklyn Nets

Not a lot of options for Pierce. His move to Brooklyn wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t what they had hoped. Resigning for half his current salary seems most likely, and praying for a healthy Brook Lopez is all Pierce has going for him.

Forecast: N-E-T-S, Nets, Nets, Nets!

Gordon Hayward

Restricted | 24 years old | 2013-14 Salary: $3.45M | Utah Jazz

Due $4.6M next year, the last year of his rookie contract, Gordon will most likely receive offers, but the Jazz will resign him or match any offer. He’s not going anywhere.

Forecast: Jazz

Trevor Ariza

In his prime, Ariza was a valuable piece to the Wizards return to the playoffs and into the second round. A good, long defender with a three-point shot, Ariza is a perfect complement to John Wall and Bradley Beal. He’ll sign a long-term deal for near the same salary he is currently making.

Forecast: Wizards

Danny Granger

Bought out by the 76ers after being traded by Indiana, Granger got picked up by the Clippers on the cheap. He was decent for the Clippers during the season in limited minutes, but he’ll never be close to all-star level again. He’s looking for an MLE at best, but will most likely take what he can get, and for anyone. Clippers will be willing to bring him back for another turn to see if he can regain any of the “old days.”

Forecast: Clippers

Marvin Williams

Unrestricted | 27 years old | 2013-14 Salary: $7.5M | Utah Jazz

Never living up to his high draft pick, Williams has still had a solid career. $7.5M is rather high, and he’ll be looking for a full MLE to join. He’d be a solid wing off the bench, and can play some power forward in a pinch. His health is a bit of a concern, but coming off the bench should help him maintain his body.

Forecast: Trail Blazers, Mavericks

Michael Beasley

Unrestricted | 25 years old | 2013-14 Salary: $1.1M | Miami Heat

After having a rejuvenated beginning to the season with the Heat, Beasley fell of dramatically. Always a huge talent, despite being a bit of a “tweener,” Beasley just hasn’t gotten his maturity level it needs to be at to be successful. With the Heat getting older, would they take another chance on Beasley?

Forecast: Miami Heat

PJ Tucker

Unrestricted | 29 years old | 2013-14 Salary: $ 0.9M | Phoenix Suns

A late bloomer, Tucker provided hustle and grit to the Suns. He’s an end of the bench player for basically any other team if he’s not a short shift starter who makes way for a sixth man type (a la Gerald Green). He’ll take what he can get, where ever that may be.