Latest gold price predictions by analysts

Below you can find a compilation of the latest gold forecasts by analysts. We are regularly extending this list with new predictions for the price of gold. Please send us a short email, if you miss a forecast by a renowned institution or analyst you would like to have included. We will then consider including that forecast in our outlook.

Gold Price US$/oz

LBMA predicts a slight decrease in the gold price

January 28th, 2015

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) expects an average gold price of 1,211 US dollar for 2015. This is 0.6% lower than the average price of 1,218 US dollar in the first half of January.

The analysts surveyed by the LBMA foresee further pressure on the gold price coming from the potential increase in the value of of the US dollar, a possible increase of interest rates by the FED in the second half of 2015, Quantitative Easing programmes in Europe as well as a furthermore weak oil price. This would likely lead to a diminished demand for a hedge against inflation.

The gold price will likely be supported by the strong retail demand from China and India, whereas only limited support is expected to come from the central banks.

ScotiaMocatta expects a further fall of the gold price in the medium term

December 2014 / January 2015

ScotiaMocatta expects a further drop of the gold price over the coming years. This estimate is mainly based on the assumption that the investor’s need for safe-havens would have diminished. The financial markets’ stability and especially the fact that equities were moving from record high to record high would have led to an high opportunity cost of holding gold. Another factor is seen in the low physical demand for gold from India and China.
The analysts also mention that a stronger outlook for the gold price might not be that far away as an improvement in India’s Gold demand, China’s return to the market as well as an equity market correction could lead to a rebound.

Commerzbank forecasts a slight recovery of the gold price for the second half of 2015 and beyond

December 2, 2014

Commerzbank expects two distinct phases for the development of the gold price in 2015: a further decrease for the first six months of 2015, followed by a rise of the gold price in the second half of the year.
According to Commerzbank, the stronger US-dollar will still put pressure on gold prices in the first six months of 2015 due the increased speculations about interest rates hikes. But once this rise is underway the pressure is likely to abate in the second half of 2015. This expectation is based on the Fed’s last series of interest rate hikes between 2004-2006 and any deviation by the Fed from this assumed course of action will pose the greatest risk to this forecast.
The gold price is likely to be supported also from the reviving demand in China and inflows into gold ETFs.
A short rise is also expected to be seen in 2016 when an average gold price of USD 1,300 is forecasted.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

First half of 2015

US$ 1,125

Second half of 2015

US$ 1,250

2016

US$ 1,300

Source: Commerzbank Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals December 2014

ABN AMRO expects a major drop in gold price

October 30, 2014

ABN AMRO Bank estimates a further decrease of the gold price over the coming three months as well as for 2015. This is mainly due to the strong US dollar and higher US interest rates which overall would lead to a decrease in investment gold demand.
For 2016 the analysts expect a slight increase (2.7 %) in the gold price as a reaction to the low profitability of mines which translates into a lower supply.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2015

US$ 925

2016

US$ 950

Source: ABN AMRO Quarterly Commodity Outlook October 2014

The World Bank predicts a decrease of the gold price in the long term

October 2014

According to the World Bank the gold prices will continue to fall in 2015 and beyond.
The World Bank argues that the gold price would decrease for instance due the fact that institutional investors would consider gold as less of a “safe haven” investment than previously.

Goldman Sachs increases gold price target

August 18th, 2014

Goldman Sachs has increased its long term gold forecast to U.S. dollars 1,200 according to a client letter from July 2014. This is an increase from the previously forecasted USD 1,050 for end of 2014 but the forecasted price is still below the current price of about USD 1,300.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2015 – Long term

US$ 1,200

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Goldman Sachs lowers its gold price forecast for 2013 and 2014

November 4th, 2013

According to a study by Goldman Sachs, analysts of the U.S. investment bank expect the price of gold to stagnate around 1,320 U.S. dollars by year-end. By the end of 2014, the price will drop to 1,050 U.S. dollars. According to the analysts, the precious metal will be listed in the next few years on average at U.S. dollars 1,200.

The reason for the current drop in the precious metal’s price are surprisingly positive data from the U.S. and the concomitant fear of a monetary policy change. The prospect of an end to the ultra-loose monetary policy has led Goldman Sachs to lower its forecast for the gold price.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

End of 2014

US$ 1,050

Source: Goldman Sachs

Best forecasters compiled by Bloomberg see drop in gold price

October 17th, 2013 – Bloomberg

According to a Bloomberg news article dated October 17th, 2013, the most accurate analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years predict that the price of gold will decline in each of the next four quarters and reach a four-year low as reduced U.S. stimulus in response to faster economic growth curbs demand for bullion as a safe haven.

According to the median of estimates from the 10 most-accurate precious metals forecasters, gold will drop to an average of $1,175 an ounce in the third quarter next year, a level at which prices were last in 2010.

The forecasts show the assumption of the analysts that some investors have lost faith in gold as a store of value as the decline in its price will result in the first annual loss in 13 years.

“Desire to buy gold as a hedge against the consequences of monetary policy has diminished,” said Tom Kendall, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in London whose precious-metals forecasts were the second most-accurate over the past two years according to Bloomberg. He added “when you’ve got other asset classes, equities in particular, doing so well, then it’s hard to divert investments out of them and into something like gold, which is falling.”

According to Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London and – in Bloomberg’s opinion – the most accurate precious-metals forecaster over the past two years “a lot of gold has been held for speculative purposes, investment and a store of value, and that’s less of a reason going forward. If you sell your gold and put your money into equities, other fixed-income assets or real estate, you’re going to show a return. The gold bull market is definitely over.”

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

third quarter 2014

US$ 1,175

Source: Bloomberg

HSBC cuts gold price estimate for 2013

April 26th, 2013 – HSBC

Following the strong decline of the gold price earlier in April, the global bank HSBC cut its gold price forecast for the year 2013 from US Dollar 1,700 to US Dollar 1,542. HSBC blamed the price drop for damaging investor confidence, which could take many months to be restored.

HSBC now predicts a gold price of US Dollar 1,600 by 2014, revised down from its ealier forecast of US Dollar 1,720. The estimated price per ounce of gold of USD 1,600 for 2014 is well above the current gold price level. HSBC assumes that the recent price decline will lead to higher demand for gold jewelry and gold coins from Asian markets, especially from China and India.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

US$ 1,542

2014

US$ 1,600

Source: Reuters

Goldman Sachs lowers gold price targets

April 10th, 2013 – Goldman Sachs/ Damien Courvalin, Jeffrey Currie

The investment bank Goldman Sachs has again reduced the gold prices it predicts through 2014. The three-month target for the gold price was cut from US$ 1,615 to US$ 1,530. The predicted gold price in six month was lowered from US$ 1,600 to US$ 1,490 and the estimated gold price in 12 months was reduced to US$ 1,390 – from US$ 1,550.

Goldman Sachs assumes that gold price is accelerating its price decline due to an U.S. economy that would improve further and that a sustained price increase that could be driven by higher inflation rates would be potentially several years away.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

next 3 months

US$ 1,530

next 6 months

US$ 1,490

next 12 months

US$ 1,390

Source: Bloomberg

Credit Suisse expects lower gold price

For 2013 the bank now expects an average price of US$ 1,580 per fine troy ounce in 2013 and US$ 1,500 in 2014 – which equals cuts of 9.2% and 12.8% respectively of their previous forecasts. Credit Suisse cites reduced prospects of further banking or liquidity crises and overall extreme risks as reasons for revising their estimates.

Societe Generale sees a gold price bubble

SocGen lowered its gold price forecasts. The predicted gold price for 2013 was lowered from USD 1,700.- to 1,500.- and the estimated price for 2014 was cut from USD 1,600 to USD 1,400.

Societe Generale assumes that a gold price bubble has developed over the last years, which will be followed by a bear market. The authors of the review note cite a recovering US economy, which will lead to decreasing stimulus measures, as well as increasing interest rates but furthermore low inflation rates as reasons for their predictions.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

US$ 1,500

December 2013

US$ 1,375

2014

US$ 1,400

Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowers gold forecasts for 2013 and 2014

March 5, 2013 – Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ Michael Widmer

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tuesday reduced its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, citing improving economic conditions and a rise in U.S. nominal rates.

The bank reduced its average price forecast for gold in 2013 to US$1,680 a troy ounce and its 2014 forecast to US$1,838 per ounce. It now doesn’t expect gold to rise above US$2,000 until 2014. This constitutes a turnaround from the bank’s previous forecast in which it had predicted a move above US$2,000z in the second quarter of 2013.

According to Michael Widmer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s metals strategist, gold prices have been range-bound for several quarters after a multi-year rally. The bank expects headwinds to gold prices to persist in the near term.

According to Mr. Widmer, a rise in U.S. nominal rates is proving a particular drag on investment demand for the metal as it would raise the cost of storing gold. Improving economic conditions would also raise doubts over the metal’s safe-haven appeal. At the same time, sizeable output gaps in many nations had prevented a meaningful pick-up of inflation and inflation expectations in the current recovery phase.

However, according to Mr. Widmer, despite near-term headwinds, several factors could boost gold prices in the longer term. In particular, real yields could trend lower in 2014. Furthermore, foreign-exchange reserve diversification from emerging market central banks on the back of currency interventions to offset a weaker yen could bring about increased gold buying later in 2013. Further out, the bank believes that investors will lose some of their clout on the gold market as emerging countries will become more affluent, which should lead to higher jewellery purchases.

According to a report by the bank, Goldman Sachs estimates that the gold price cycle has likely already started to turn and expects an end to the increase in the gold price which is already lasting for twelve years. Goldman Sachs lowered its gold price forecasts for the next three, six, and twelve months to US$1,615, US$1,600, and US$1,550 an ounce respectively. The current gold price is slightly above US$1,592 per ounce.

According to the report, the recovery in the U.S. economy gathers momentum and some U.S. central bankers seek more flexibility in their stimulus program. Goldman Sachs was also surprised by the latest collapse in gold ETF holdings that would stand in sharp contrast to their assumption that ETF positions were likely driven by longer-term allocation rather than short-term trading.

According to Goldman’s report, their “economists believe that the downside risks to their forecasts have diminished while the uncertainty about the size of QE3 is high. We believe that a shift has occurred over the past few months with conviction in holding gold waning quickly.”

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

next 3 months

US$ 1,615

next 6 months

US$ 1,600

next 12 months

US$ 1,550

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley expects gold rally to continue

January 24th, 2013 – Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley’s Peter Richardson and Joel Crane see gold extending its rally in 2013 and into 2014. According to the analysts, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain asset purchases for two more years to strengthen the recovery of the U.S. economy.

The analysts expect an “ongoing commitment” to the third round of quantitative easing. With regard to elevated unemployment and tail risks to growth they see it as unlikely that current monetary policy will change before the end of 2014.

According to their report, gold may average US$1,830 an ounce in the last quarter of 2013 from US$1,715 in the first, US$1,745 in the second and US$1,800 in the third. The analysts expect prices will be driven by investment and central-bank buying of gold as a reserve portfolio asset.

LBMA’s Forecast 2013, its survey among analysts on the direction of the price of gold which is conducted annually, estimates an average price for gold of 1,753 U.S. dollars for 2013. That price would mean a 5.3% increase compared to the average gold price to date in January 2013. The forecast is based on a survey among 23 contributors – among them Tom Kendall of Credit Suisse Securities Europe, Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Brebner, Philip Klapwijk of Thomson Reuters GFMS and James Steel of HSBC.

The lowest average price of gold predicted by contributors to the survey was 1,600 U.S. dollars which was estimated by Rene Hochreiter of Allan Hochreiter Ltd and Eddie Nagao of Sumitomo Corporation. The highest price – 1,900 U.S. dollars – was forecasted by Joni Teves of UBS, followed by an average gold price of 1,895 U.S. dollars which was predicted by TD Securities’ Bart Melek.

HSBC lowers average gold price forecast for 2013 and introduces forecast for 2015

January 4th, 2013 – HSBC Global Research

In early January 2013 James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst, revised HSBC’s predictions for the price of gold after factoring in a 2012 year-end price of 1,657 U.S. dollars per ounce. HSBC lowered its forecast for the average gold price in 2013 to 1,760 U.S. dollars/oz (down from their forecast of 1,850 U.S. dollars at the end of October 2012) and expects the market to remain volatile. For 2014 the bank still predicts a price of 1,775 U.S. dollars an ounce. For 2015 it estimates an gold price of 1.675 U.S. dollars an ounce, the long-term forecast is 1,500 U.S. dollars.

According to Steel, gold prices will recover in 2013. Among the reasons given were the adoption of easing of monetary policy by major central banks, the likely recovery of Indian consumption, strong Chinese demand based on China’s growing GDP and strong demand from central banks, particularly in emerging countries, which would keep accumulating gold as one strategy to diversify their foreign exchange holdings.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

US$ 1,760

2014

US$ 1,775

2015

US$ 1,675

long-term

US$ 1,500

Source: The Globe and Mail and The Business Times

Credit Suisse lowers gold price forecasts for 2013 and 2014

January 3rd, 2013 – Credit Suisse

The Swiss bank decreased its forecast for the average gold price over 2013 from 1,840 U.S. dollars to 1,740 U.S. dollars per troy ounce and lowered the 2014 gold price forecast to 1,720 U.S. dollars an ounce from 1,750 U.S. dollars. However, those forecasts also assume an increase in the current price of gold.

According to analysts at the bank, “the 12-year-old U.S. dollar gold bull market is not yet dead in our opinion but nor is it in the best of health.” They expect for 2013 further prolonged periods of range trading in a low implied volatility environment.

In case their central macroeconomic case, according to which the acute phase of the global crisis is probably over and there will be slow improvement in growth through the second half, would prove to be correct, the relative appeal of gold would be “likely to diminish as fear trades fade.”

According to a Business Insider article, Morgan Stanley’s Hussein Allidina argues that gold is the best commodity for 2013. In a note written by Allidina, the analysts maintain their long-standing recommendation of overweight exposure to precious metals as conditions underpinning the gold bull-run would largely remain in place.

The reasons given in the note are a weaker US dollar, central bank buying, ETF demand and a recovery in Indian demand.

The four reasons for gold are in detail:

The US dollar is predicted to come under pressure due to the Fed’s commitment to a near zero Federal Funds rate though 2014 and open ended purchases of mortgage backed securities. At the same time, the ECB’s decision to adopt an unlimited bond purchase program through the Outright Monetary Transactions initiative, subject to the conditionality of a full EFSF/ESM facility, would reduce downside risks for the euro and increase the likelihood of downward pressure on the TWI of the USD, via the USD/EUR cross rate.

Central banks’ preference for gold as a reserve portfolio asset is expected to further strengthen gold investment demand.

The physically backed ETFs would remain a solid basis for growth in investment and retail demand.

The Indian jewellery and investment market would show signs of recovery as Indian purchasers would acclimate to recent price trends and the Indian wedding and festival season lies ahead.

Allidina predicts for 2013 an average gold price of US$1,853 an ounce.

According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs considers a turn in the current gold bull cycle in 2013 as likely. Goldman Sachs cut its gold price forecasts for the coming three, six, and twelve months to US$1,825, US$1,805, and US$1,800 an ounce respectively. Currently, the gold price is slightly below US$ 1,700 an ounce.

The bank also predicts for 2014 a gold price of US$1,750 an ounce.

Goldman Sachs expects the gold price to be driven by “the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in real rates on better U.S. economic growth”. According to their expanded modelling, the improving U.S. growth outlook will likely outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion. The bank added it was difficult to call a price peak due to the elevated risks to its growth outlook, particularly with regard to the fiscal cliff.

The bank said, their forecast for limited upside to gold prices accounted for their economists’ expectation for further Fed easing later in 2013. It expects that an improving U.S. growth outlook would more than offset the potential for further Fed balance sheet expansion.

In case of absent additional easing in late 2013, Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices to decline at a faster pace in 2013 and to reach $1,625 an ounce by the end of that year. In case of a weaker U.S. growth outlook, gold prices are predicted to trend higher, reaching $1,900 an ounce by the end of 2013.

Commerzbank predicts rising gold price for 2013

November 30th, 2012 – Commerzbank

Commodity analysts of Commerzbank predict a further increase of the price of gold in 2013. They forecast an average gold price in 2013 of US$ 1,950 per ounce.

The analysts consider it as likely that the price of gold will at least temporarily exceed US$ 2,000 in the coming year. This could happen as soon as in the first quarter of 2013 if the US would not find a sustainable solution for the budget dispute and an increase of the debt limit would take long.

The most important price driver is expected to be central banks’ extremely loose monetary policy which would undermine the value of the currencies. Additionally, the debt crisis in the euro zone and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are considered to be important drivers for a sustained demand for gold as a ‘safe haven’.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

US$ 1,950

Source: BoerseGo.de

Gold price predictions compiled by Bloomberg

Bloomberg has compiled gold price forecasts of 16 analysts. According to the median of their predictions, the price of gold will increase during every quarter in 2013 and average US$ 1,925oz in the last quarter – that is 11% higher than now.

Tom Kendall from Credit Suisse estimates an average gold price of US$ 1,880 in the last quarter of 2013, Jochen Hitzfeld from UniCredit predicts US$ 1,950. For the third quarter of 2013, Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Brebner expects a gold price of US$ 2,300. According to Bloomberg, the three mentioned analysts were the most accurate gold forecasters tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years, with Tom Kendall being the most accurate forecaster followed by Jochen Hitzfeld and Daniel Brebner.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

last quarter 2013

US$ 1,925

Source: Bloomberg

ScotiaMocatta’s 2013 Forecast expects gold price to rise

November 2012 – ScotiaMocatta

ScotiaMocatta remains bullish for gold due to the concerns over EU and US debt and the ongoing quantitative easing. In it’s Precious Metals 2013 Forecast, the bullion bank expects gold prices to rise as quantitative easing debases the value of paper money and investor’s demand for safety further monetarises gold.

According to the bank, policymakers seem intent on finding the least painful solutions to the debt problems. This would likely involve reducing the debt burden by devaluing it which would probably result in creditors further diversifying away from fiat assets.

Having consolidated between September 2011 and September 2012, the bank estimates “gold prices have stated another leg up that is likely to lead to new highs during 2013″. The bank writes it would not be surprised to see prices reach US$2,200/oz, although it would be difficult to gauge how far prices will increase.

Eventually, once the bull market has run its course and there is less need for safe-havens, the bank would look for prices to retrace back towards US$1,100/1,200oz as investment gold is liquidated and supply surges, but – as the bank states – they certainly do not expect that to happen in the coming year.

The global bank lowered its gold price forecast for 2012 by US$10 to $1,675 and its 2013 outlook by US$35 to US$1,865 per ounce, saying the impact of the latest round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve has not been felt so far.

“In 2013, gold could break its previous record high, but the potential for further upside may be limited thereafter,” analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay said in a note. According to the analyst, the timing of the gold price peak will be closely linked to the rate of improvement in the G3 economies.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2012

US$ 1,675

2013

US$ 1,865

Gold price to rise to US$ 2,000 according to Deutsche Bank

November 14, 2012 – Deutsche Bank/ Raymond Key

Raymond Key, global head of metals trading at Deutsche Bank In London, expects a gold price rally to a record level above US$ 2,000 per ounce by next year. This prediction is based on the assumption that more money will be printed in order to sustain the economic recovery with stimulus.
According to Mr. Key, the rally is becoming more mature and the outlook for gold is pretty positive but people shouldn’t expect too much.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

above US$ 2,000

Source: Bloomberg

London Bullion Market Association predicts gold price of US$ 1,843 by September 2013

November 13, 2012 – LBMA

At the annual conference of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) participants estimated the gold price to reach US$ 1,843 by September 2013. This price would equal a rise of about 6.7% from current levels. As drivers for this rise of the gold price increased demand from Asia and especially China as well as further monetary easing in the United States were cited.

More than half of the conference participants expect another round of quantitative easing in the U.S. and 56% forecast China’s economy will grow by 7-8% next year.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

September 2013

US$ 1,843

Gold price rally to continue in 2013 according to HSBC

October 22, 2012 – HSBC/ James Steel and Howard Wen

HSBC analysts James Steel and Howard Wen lowered their 2012 forecasts for the average gold price to US$ 1,700 but increased their average price forecast for 2013 to US$ 1,850/oz. They also raised their average gold price forecast for 2014 to US$ 1,775/oz.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

US$ 1,850

2014

US$ 1,775

Credit Suisse predicts gold price of US$ 1,840 in 2013

October 12, 2012 – Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse, the global investment bank, has raised its gold price forecast for 2013 to US$ 1,840 per ounce. CS also raised its forecasted gold price for the year 2014 to US$ 1,750. According to Credit Suisse, more quantitative easing in the U.S., a risk of a rating cut of the U.S. credit rating and higher demand from China and India are the key drivers for the change in the forecasted price of gold.

A senior executive of Coutts – the private banking arm of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) – expects the gold price to increase towards US$ 2,000 per ounce in the next months. According to Gary Dougan, who is Coutts’ chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East, medium-term drivers such as net purchases by central banks of emerging market countries would be drivers for an increase of the gold price.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

Next several months

US$ 2,000

Source: Reuters

Deutsche Bank raised its gold-price outlook for 2013 and 2014

October 2, 2012 – Deutsche Bank/ Michael Lewis

Deutsche Bank expects that the balance sheet expansions by central banks and the resulting higher demand for gold from investors will result in a rising gold price. Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast to US$ 2,113/oz in 2013 and US$ 2,000/oz by 2014.

According to Deutsche Bank, due to the announcement of an open-ended quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve, a surge of the gold price is only a matter of time.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

2013

US$ 2,113

2014

US$ 2,000

Bank of America forecasts gold price of US$ 2,400 by the end of 2014

Analysts of Bank of Amercia Merrill Lynch predict a gold price of US$ 2,000 within the next six months. Sabine Schels, head of fundamental commodity research, forecasts a price of US$ 2,400 per ounce by the end of 2014. Schels cites actions by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank as key drivers for the price increase.

According to MacNeill Curry, head of foreign exchange and rates technical strategy, the could price could ultimately reach US$ 3,000 – 5,000.

Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast

Trend

Next six months

US$ 2,000

End of 2014

US$ 2,400

Source: CNBC

Thomson Reuters GFMS sees a gold price of $ 1,850+ over the next months

September 4, 2012 – Thomson Reuters GFMS/ Philip Klapwijk

Philip Klapwijk, head of metal analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS, views a gold price rise to US$ 1,850 per ounce or above as likely over the next several months. Mr. Klapwijk cites increased demand from investors, the prospect of further quantitative easing in the United States and potential measures by the European Central Bank as well as potential stimulus measures in China as possible drivers for such a rise.

Mr. Klapwijk also forecasts new gold price records above US$ 2,000 in the first half of 2013. However, he also estimates that gold prices could subsequently see the lows of less than US$ 1,550/oz as experienced during this summer.