Top 5 forecast

I’m not really comfortable changing the forecast post-game from the pre-game. However, just for grins, here’s what happens if you include the effect of tonight’s approval ratings and the Dialidol score

Contestant

Sex

Today’s Avg

Dialidol score

Prior Average

Probability
of Elimination

Jacob Lusk

M

24

11.29

32.5

0.909681

Scotty McCreery

M

62.5

20.91

48.75

0.117288

James Durbin

M

49

11.83

63.5

0.040166

Lauren Alaina

F

79.5

11.51

55

0.027193

Haley Reinhart

F

84

10.1

65.5

0.005458

In other words, unless this year is very different from every prior year, Jacob Lusk is going home.