History repeating itself is rare in a race as unpredictable as the John
Smith’s Grand National, but certain trends can and do develop.

It is six years since the Irish won this great test of horse and rider and they are overdue another triumph, considering the depth of talent in their ranks.

Many believe this could be a fairytale National, the first to feature a female jockey winner. Katie Walsh certainly has an excellent chance on Seabass, last year’s third, but her brother, Ruby, will also be hard to beat on board On His Own. To have brother and sister riding two horses at the head of the market is unprecedented.

Tony McCoy’s display of faith in Colbert Station, trained by Ruby and Katie’s father Ted, is fascinating, particularly considering the gelding’s relative lack of experience, and adds another dimension.

But there is also the real possibility of Imperial Commander becoming the first Gold Cup winner to land the National since L’Escargot in 1975. He will be saddled by Nigel Twiston-Davies, based in the Cotswolds, who has already won two Nationals.

The usual mix of worthy National types, aimed specifically at the race, together with younger unexposed contenders, makes this as intriguing as the world’s most demanding steeplechase, with its 30 fences, always is. But with the race being scrutinised as never before by outsiders with once-a-year interest, this year is also different.

Aintree officials have done everything they can to eliminate as much risk as possible, but the Grand National remains the pinnacle in the array of challenges left to horse and rider in a dangerous sport. Every year, the vigilance of officials has increased, but with a new broadcaster, Channel 4, taking over and a sponsor for future years still to be found, increased pressures on the sport, 2013 could mark a turning point.

When Silver Birch won for Gordon Elliott in 2007, it was the third leg of a famous hat-trick for the Irish, following Hedgehunter in 2005 and Numbersixvalverde in 2006, and also their sixth win in a span of eight years. It preceded a notable British fightback.

But during the recent blank years for Irish stables, one of their key trainers, Dessie Hughes, sent out 10 runners in the Grand National. Only three completed the course, but twice he could seriously have given himself a solid chance of winning.

The year 2009 is remembered for Mon Mome winning for Venetia Williams and Liam Treadwell at

100-1, but Hughes will always look back on it as the one that got away. Black Apalachi was travelling really well when, for some unaccountable reason, the gelding landed awkwardly at Becher’s Brook the second time and sent jockey Denis O’Regan flying out the side door.

Twelve months later, the same combination were given another chance, but on this occasion, it was

McCoy who grabbed the limelight on Don’t Push It. Black Apalachi was beaten five lengths into second place, the best of his four attempts over the big Aintree fences.

Today, I believe Hughes will finally get his place on the roll of honour with 20-1 chance Rare Bob. His handling of Black Apalachi, as well as Vic Venturi and In Compliance in recent years, has given him plenty of practice at plotting a campaign.

Rare Bob has the profile of a potential winner. He is an 11-year-old, he has been to the big race before – brought down at the fifth fence last year – and has been responsible for some eye-catching performances in recent weeks.

His key run came in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Feb 23. The race was won by Roi Du Mee, but while all eyes focused on Seabass in third, Rare Bob finished just over two lengths behind him in fourth.

Rare Bob will meet Seabass on 9lb better terms for that run – and at the weights, he should be able to turn the tables on his rival. The other factor in his favour is that he has since finished third, under a big weight in the Leinster National on March 10. But perhaps his biggest asset will be Bryan Cooper, the jockey who rode three winners at last month’s Cheltenham Festival. Cooper, 20, is considered the best riding prospect to come through Hughes’s stable since Charlie Swan, more than two decades ago.

On His Own was going so well when he fell at Becher’s the second time last year that he must again have solid claims. Teaforthree, Imperial Commander, and Cappa Bleu are others who may figure in the finish.