Transactions

09/27/2011

Who the next manager of the White Sox is could signal a rebuilding project -- or another attempt at making the playoffs.

Ozzie Guillen had to leave. And the White Sox had to part ways with him.The point of no return was reached months ago, when the Sox started 2011 in horrendous fashion. After it became clear the Sox weren't going to get back into the division race -- so long as Guillen continued to play Adam Dunn and Alex Rios over Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro De Aza -- the writing was clearly on the wall. And it pointed toward the worst logo in sports.

So, now what?

We must rebuild. But who will lead us in the rebuilding process? Man, it's got to be someone with the know-how AND the elbow grease to lead us to a new land. No, not me and KG, we don't have the cognitive capacity to lead...alright, we'll do it!

I don't know if Kenny Williams and/or Jerry Reinsdorf are Tenacious D fans (probably not), but if they are, maybe they'll take some inspiration from Jack Black and look to rebuild a fairly barren farm system.

That could mean some drastic moves. Maybe John Danks and Gavin Floyd will be dealt, instead of one of them or neither. Carlos Quentin is likely to be sent away regardless of what direction the Sox go in.

If the Sox do go the rebuilding route, it can't be construed as a fire sale -- attendance is already down this season, and a perceived implosion of the roster would hurt ticket sales even more. Of course, staying with the status quo won't help, either -- whether the Sox are mediocre or bad probably won't make much of a difference.

And that's why now is the perfect time to re-stock.

Sure, a few shreds of hope exist for the Sox to contend in 2012, but those hopes lie on the shoulders of Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Gordon Beckham, Jake Peavy, Philip Humber -- a host of question marks. Another season of mediocrity not only will hurt attendance, but it very well could push the Sox window to win back another year.

Dayan Viciedo is a nice building block, as is Chris Sale. Beckham, for all his struggles, still deserves another shot at redemption. Brent Morel has come a long way in September and hopefully can translate it into a few solid years down the road. If given the chance, Tyler Flowers could develop into a nice, cheap replacement for A.J. Pierzynski. Addison Reed has all the makings of a dominant reliever.

So the White Sox aren't completely bereft of young, inexpensive talent. But they need more, especially in terms of starting pitching.

Acquiring a young arm or two would be a nice start, although it may mean trading more than the rumored Danks/Floyd/Quentin triumvirate. Think Alexei Ramirez.

That'd be a tough pill to swallow, as Ramirez has provided the Sox with fantastic value since coming over from Cuba in 2008 and has a very favorable contract running through 2016. The Sox don't have a clear alternative to him, as neither Eduardo Escobar nor Ozzie Martinez hit well enough to justify anything more than a utility role.

If Pierzynski can be dealt, the Sox should move him and his $6 million salary to make way for Flowers. In fact, the only veteran I'd be hesitant to deal is Paul Konerko -- from the standpoints of sentiment, production and leadership.

Obviously, the Sox shouldn't completely blow up the team, lest they trot out a lineup on April 6, 2012 that would make the Astros look hopeful. But a few shrewd moves here and there -- as Williams was able to pull off after the 2006 season -- could go along way toward competing in an ever-competitive division down the road.

And that means hiring someone who could bring that youth along. In other words, not Tony La Russa -- although he's an unlikely option regardless.

But here's an idea: hire Sandy Alomar Jr. as the manger and Frank Thomas as the hitting coach.

It sounds like Thomas wants to be a hitting coach, and while he doesn't have any coaching credentials, he'd be an interesting hire from the standpoint of "keeping it in the family." Maybe Harold Baines sticks around and returns to a bench coach role if Alomar is brought in.

The next few years could be rocky with the Sox, but if they go the rebuilding route, it could pay bigger dividends in the future.

09/26/2011

With a weak farm system, manager issues, budget concerns and a strenghtening division, the White Sox may have blown their last opportunity to make the playoffs for the near future.

Maybe that's too pessimistic of a summary. But with 2011 wrapping up, a glance around the AL Central reveals quite a few worrisome trends for the future of the White Sox.

Detroit

We all know about Justin Verlander, but Detroit's rotation behind the presumptive AL Cy Young is setting up to be extremely strong. Doug Fister has been a fantastic addition, and he's under team control through 2015. While Max Scherzer hasn't put everything together yet, he has ace-quality stuff and is under control through 2014. Rick Porcello has yet to develop into anything more than average, but he'll be 23 on opening day next year.

And Detroit still has uber-prospect Jacob Turner, who cracked the majors this year at the age of 20. Andy Oliver's stock fell this year, but he still has good upside. Detroit's rotation has been very good this year, and chances are, it's a unit that'll only improve in the coming years. Verlander-Scherzer-Fister-Porcello-Turner/Oliver will be together through at least 2014, and that's a frightening thought.

Offensively, Detroit will anchored by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez with Alex Avila and Brennan Boesch providing solid offense around them. There isn't much help on the way from the minors outside of the very young Nick Castellanos and the back of the order may struggle, but any lineup with a powerful middle like Detroit will have for the next few years is a good bet to support its pitching staff.

Cleveland

Trading Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for Ubaldo Jimenez was a gamble, but the Indians will have Jimenez and his extremely favorable contract through 2013. Paired with Justin Masterson, the top of Cleveland's rotation is strong -- but after that, there are quite a few question marks. Josh Tomlin regressed (as expected) to an ERA above 4 this year, while Fausto Carmona struggled and may not be a sure bet to have his 2012-2014 options picked up. This is a starting rotation that'll be great at the top, but probably struggle at the bottom heading forward.

Offensively, though, Cleveland has more help. Carlos Santana is a great anchor, while Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall both look like solid-at-worst major leaguers. Travis Hafner will be around for at least one more year, while 2012 is the last year the Indians have control over Grady Sizemore. If Shin-Soo Choo rebounds from his dismal 2011 and Asdrubal Cabrera proves his 25-homer season wasn't a mirage, Cleveland's lineup could set up to be fairly solid for the next few years.

Cleveland doesn't seem to match up well with Detroit's strengths going forward, and they may continue to flounder as a .500-or-worse team for the near future.

Minnesota

Chances are Minnesota won't run into the awful injury issues they did in 2011 again, but even if they don't, the Twins' future isn't bright. Bill Smith's recent string of poor decisions -- namely, the trades of JJ Hardy and Wilson Ramos -- has led for some to call for his firing. While that's something esteemed Twins blogger Nick Nelson doesn't think is possible, he does write "This is a club in desperate need of new perspectives and outside-the-box solutions."

Joe Mauer's eight-year contract already looks like an albatross given he doesn't appear long for the catcher position, and Justin Morneau's career continues to spiral downward after his mid-season concussion last year. Those two players -- the anchors for the Twins' AL Central dominance in the last five years -- are owed a combined $76 million through 2013, the last year of Morneau's contract.

With Francisco Liriano imploding in 2011 after a fantastic 2010, Minnesota doesn't have a staff ace lined up for the foreseeable future. Top prospect and Beerleaguer favorite Kyle Gibson had Tommy John surgery, and after him, there are plenty of "Twins" pitchers -- i.e. guys without great stuff but decent command. There's nothing wrong with that, but from the outside, it looks like Minnesota has a bunch of Nos. 4 and 5 starters waiting in the wings.

While it's difficult for a White Sox fan to bury the Twins, the future up north doesn't look too great. They'll land the No. 2 pick in the 2012 draft, which is a nice start, but they don't have the makings of a team that'll contend for the AL Central any time soon.

Kansas City

Here lies the crux of the "White Sox window has closed" argument. If the division was ruled soley by Detroit, a bit of good luck could easily propel the Sox to a division title. But if Kansas City realizes their potential, the Sox will have another team they'll have to climb over to win the division.

Offensively, Kansas City is stacked. By wOBA, the Royals are tied for the sixth-best offense in baseball this year with Colorado and Milwaukee - better than the Blue Jays, Rays and Phillies. Alex Gordon finally had his breakout season, while soon-to-be 22-year-old Eric Hosmer will probably win the AL Rookie of the Year. He's going to be a monster, and Mike Moustakas projects very well. There still are more top prospects on the way -- namely, catcher Wil Myers -- to fortify this already-solid group.

The Royals' bullpen looks stout, too. What'll determine how quickly the Royals compete in the AL Central is their starting rotation. And that rests on two things: first, how quickly the Royals' stable of pitching prospects realize their potential, and second, if Dayton Moore can make an astute signing or trade to solidify the rotation.

While TINSTAAPP, Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery could be staff aces. Felipe Paulino looks like a decent stopgap, and Luke Hochevar isn't bad as a back-end guy. There are plenty more good, young arms in the Royals' system as well that could come along in the next five years.

For the Royals to contend next year, they'll probably need to spend some money on a starter. I have to wonder if they'll make a play at Mark Buehrle, given his Missouri connections (albeit on the other side of the state). While Buehrle may not get the Royals to the playoffs on paper, adding him would not only strengthen KC's chances, but take something away from a division rival.

What about the Sox?

The window will remain open for 2012 if Jake Peavy stays healthy and effective and Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and/or Gordon Beckham rebound/realize their offensive ceilings. With a healthy Peavy, there's much less pressure of Philip Humber and Chris Sale in the rotation -- not to mention the Sox won't have to use Zach Stewart -- and a rebound by, say, Dunn, would at least replace Carlos Quentin's lost production when he's inevitably dealt this offseason.

But with a weak farm system -- especially in terms of pitching -- and a need to slash payroll, the Sox are a team that don't shape up to be consistently competitive in the division for the better part of this decade. Of course, that doesn't mean they definitely won't be competitive, but with the rest of the division looking stronger by the day, I have my doubts about the future of this team.

09/24/2011

When J.J. Putz signed with Arizona instead of returning to the White Sox, it looked like an odd move for a guy who had never been to the playoffs in his career.

But 44 saves and one division title later, Putz is going to the postseason. With Arizona.

Putz wasn't going to return to the White Sox so long as he had an opportunity to close somewhere, and with Matt Thornton entering 2011 as the Sox closer, that opportunity wasn't in Chicago. And losing Putz hasn't even had a negative effect on the Sox, as Jesse Crain has done a fine job sliding into Putz' 2010 role.

More than anything, though, it's an interesting juxtaposition between Chicago and Arizona. The White Sox were "All In," a team many expected to win the AL Central. If not, they would at least compete for it.

Arizona? They were a preseason non-factor, with San Francisco, Colorado and Los Angeles the most popular projections.

The Diamondbacks have a 2011 payroll of $56,489,833, per Cot's Contracts. The White Sox have a 2011 payroll of $127,789,000.

Arizona didn't win the NL West on the strength of a dominant pitching staff or a powerful offense. Where they won -- as so many teams have -- is with stellar defense. While single-season UZR ratings are incredibly fickle, the D-Backs' team UZR of 57.6 is a full 11 runs higher than the No. 2 team in baseball. DRS rates them positively, with a +29 rating -- not as good as the sparkling UZR number, but very good nonetheless.

The White Sox were, at best, an average defensive squad this year. They clearly out-pitched the D-Backs, entering Saturday with about 10 more WAR among their pitchers than Arizona. Offensively, Arizona was clearly the better team, with a .320 wOBA to the White Sox .311.

So to bring this back: Good for Putz. Hopefully he'll get to save a few games in October. And at the least, at least his team had one of the coolest celebrations ever.

09/23/2011

09/22/2011

Mark Buehrle says he'd like to return to the White Sox -- if they'll have him back.

In a perfect world, Buehrle would finish his career out with the White Sox, and a few years later see No. 56 be retired at U.S. Cellular Field. But it's not a perfect world, because if it were, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios wouldn't have tanked.

After throwing six innings of two-run ball Wednesday, the 32-year-old left-hander is well on his way to an 11th straight season with 200+ innings pitched. His ERA sits at 3.72, and he's only had two years since joining the Sox rotation in 2001 in which neither his ERA nor FIP was below 4.00. He'll likely finish 2011 by bringing his career WAR total to 46, and while he's no longer the 4-win pitcher of his youth, Buehrle can be counted on for about 3 WAR per season. If he takes a three-year, $30-$33 million deal, he'll likely provide surplus value for the Sox over the duration of the contract.

- He's no Strasburg, but...

Buehrle won't put fans in the seats on a game-to-game basis, but the Sox will lose fewer season ticket holders if Buehrle is retained as opposed to let go. Nobody is going to renew their season tickets because Buehrle is retained, but many more than expected may cancel their plans if he isn't brought back.

- Cutter Sale

From a teaching standpoint, while Buehrle and Chris Sale are polar opposites outside of which hand they throw with, having the veteran around to -- hopefully -- assist Sale in developing a cutter would be a positive. Plus, that veteran presence on the pitching staff could hopefully be beneficial to Sale, assuming he gets a crack at the rotation next year.

Cons

- C.R.E.A.M.B.

Cash rules everything around Mark Buehrle. That's not to say Buehrle's going to heed the words of Method Man and get the money, dolla dolla bill y'all, but it's more to say the Sox need to slash dolla dolla bills, y'all.

Given the immovable contracts of Dunn, Rios and Jake Peavy, the Sox don't have much wiggle room when it comes to cutting salary. They could trade Gavin Floyd and retain Buehrle, although that would cost the team more money in the long run. Trading Carlos Quentin will help, as could a deal to send A.J. Pierzynski packing, although that's not too likely to happen.

That being said, Peavy's contract will be off the books after 2012 when the Sox exercise his $4 million buyout, and Pierzynski's $6 million salary will be gone as well. So if the Sox can find room in their budget for Buehrle's 2012 contract, they can keep him.

- Packin' Gavin

Without making any other moves, keeping Buehrle and moving Sale to the rotation would create a logjam. Buehrle, Sale, Floyd, Peavy, John Danks and Philip Humber would be around, while Zach Stewart won't sniff a rotation spot.

So even without the need for a budget cutback, the Sox would have to free up some room in the rotation. That probably means trading Floyd, which I'm already on the record as saying would be a bad idea. Danks' skid to the finish will leave him with a down 2011 season, so his value likely has taken a bit of a hit.

The Sox could trade Humber, but even if he's hardly a sure bet to repeat the 3+ WAR season he's had this year, his inexpensive price tag means the Sox have to hang on to him.

The same goes for Sale, although if the Sox want to get really radical with their cost-cutting, they could try to unload Rios somewhere while sending Sale along with him. But that would be an extremely dangerous way to cut costs, although the pair could end up in Toronto, which would be amusingly awkward for Rios.

So the question comes to this for the Sox: Keep Buehrle and trade Floyd or Danks, or let Buehrle go and keep Floyd and Danks [hopefully, because Stewart isn't an ideal candidate for next year's rotation].

Let Buehrle go: Pros

Most of these play on what's above, so they'll be in quick, bullet-point form. First, pros:

Floyd and Danks stay: Again, not trading low on these two surplus-value producers is a big positive.

Avoid regression: While Buehrle hasn't shown any abnormal signs of breaking down due to his age yet, one injury could pull his contract from providing surplus value to breaking even or worse. Plus, if the final year of his contract (2012-2014, let's say) is in his age 35 season, he'll be expected to experience some age-related regression.

Save cash: The Sox have to save some money somewhere, and letting Buehrle walk is one of the easiest ways to do it.

And cons:

Fans. Casual White Sox fans may not feel the urge to renew season ticket plans or even make a trip or two to the ballpark if Buehrle's gone -- that's just speculation on my part, but those casual fans may view letting Buehrle walk as a sign the team isn't serious about competing next year. Again, that's just speculation. But, to me, there would be an attendance drop, however slight, by not bringing him back. Or course, there's no way to prove that it would or wouldn't happen without a flux capacitor.

The rotation. With the AL Central stacking up to be fairly solid next year -- that's a topic for a separate post -- a rotation of Danks-Floyd-Peavy-Sale-Humber doesn't seem like one that'll be able to get by the fearsome offenses of Detroit and Kansas City. Ideally, the Sox could sub Buehrle in for Peavy, but that's unrealistic. Unfortunately, losing Buehrle will weaken the Sox rotation.

Leadership! Guys like Sale, Humber, even Stewart could benefit from having the experienced Buehrle around -- Sale in particular. While this isn't a huge deal, it is something to recognize.

Conclusion: Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there's any viable way to keep Buehrle on the White Sox without hurting the team with a trade of Floyd/Danks or a decision to leave Sale in the bullpen.

So mark your calendars, buy tickets, watch it on TV -- Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2011 will be Mark Buehrle's last start in a White Sox uniform.

09/20/2011

Differing plate approaches for Alexei Ramirez in 2010 and 2011 haven't made much of a difference in his offensive output.

As it stands, 2008 may be the best offensive season of Ramirez' career. The then-rookie belted 21 home runs and posted a .336 wOBA, with both still stand as career highs as the shortstop wraps up his fourth season in the majors.

Through 644 plate appearances this year -- a career-high -- Ramirez has hit 14 home runs with a .321 wOBA. His home runs are down from 2010, when he belted 18, but his on-base percentage is up. It's added up to a wOBA that only sits a point lower than his 2010 mark.

In other words, in terms of overall offensive production, there's been little difference between Ramirez' 2010 and 2011.

How he's got to this point, though, is different.

Last year, Ramirez had a 4.3 percent walk rate, compared to a near-average 7.5 percent walk rate this year. His plate discipline percentages reveal a more subtle change, though.

Ramirez is swinging at fewer pitches (49.8 percent to 48.1 percent), both in and out of the zone. While his out-of-zone swing percentage appears to be stable from 2010 (35.4 percent) to 2011 (35.6 percent), compared to the MLB average, he's swinging at 1 percent fewer pitches out of the strike zone from last year to this year.

Inside the strike zone, Ramirez has swung at 63.2 percent of the pitches he's seen, as opposed to 65.8 percent last year while the MLB average has remained stable.

His contact rate is similarly stable, although he's made more contact out of the strike zone and less contact in it, which could partially explain his drop in ISO from .149 to .131. The more bad pitches you swing at, the worse your contact will be.

But in 2011, Ramirez has found a way to be patient and hit the ball hard. His walk rate is the product of better discipline, not reckless patience. The results have started to come along with the White Sox's wins in the last 15 games, and if these numbers are any indication, the results will continue to be positive.

What I referenced was Ramirez' plate discipline shift from 2008 to 2009, when he went from being a free-swinging hacker to a guy who forced patience. That shift led to what has statistically been the worst offensive season of Ramirez' MLB career, as he had no clue when to restrain himself and when to go all in at the plate.

This year, though, it looked as if Ramirez had finally figured it out at the plate, at least two months into the season. On May 31, Ramirez had a .351 OBP, hit six home runs and drew 20 walks to 31 strikeouts. For a guy who never had done much of anything offensively before mid-May, those were extremely encouraging numbers.

But Ramirez didn't experience a summer outburst like in years past. In June and July, Ramirez hit just three home runs, drawing 16 walks while striking out 28 times. His OBP in that span was .310. For whatever reason, Ramirez' June and July looked more like his Aprils and Mays in the last few years.

Ramirez will turn 30 on Thursday, and from what we can tell, he won't experience the big offensive breakout season we've been hoping for ever since 2008.

And that's fine, though. Playing at a premium position, Ramirez has provided the White Sox with a great amount of surplus value since coming to Chicago, and he's likely to continue to do so through 2016, the latest his current contract can run out.

He's a phenomenal defensive shortstop who isn't bad as a No. 2 hitter when he's not foolishly being told to bunt. If Ramirez hits closer to sixth or seventh in the order, that's fine as well.

So even if Ramirez won't have a breakout year and post, say, 6.5 WAR, he's still incredibly valuable to the Sox as a 4+ WAR shortstop.

09/16/2011

As the White Sox limp to the finish, a bright spot has emerged for next year. No, seriously!

He's only pitched in four games, but those four games plus an impressive minor league resume have been more than enough to be encouraged for Addison Reed's role in next year's bullpen.

Reed, a 2010 third-round pick, didn't quite go on the Chris Sale fast track, but he's on the one next to it. John Sickels appears to be spot-on in his post-draft assessment of Reed:

Very polished, Reed throws 89-92 as a starter but hit the mid-90s when used as a closer in '09. He has a good slider and changeup. If used in rotation, he looks like a number three or four starter, but if he moves to the pen he could move very fast as a closer through the system. -- Minor League Ball

After starting two games in rookie ball last year, the Sox moved Reed to the bullpen, where he predictably began to have dominant results, finishing his 30 innings of work with a 13.20 K/9.

As a full-time reliever in 2011, Reed blew through four levels of the Sox farm system before being called up to kick off September. In 78 1/3 innings between Kannapolis, Winston-Salem, Birmingham and Charlotte, Reed struck out 111 opponents while walking just 14 -- a 7.93 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In 4 2/3 innings with the major league Sox, Reed has struck out eight with just one walk. A small sample, yes, but consistent with his minor league K/BB. So that's good.

Reed's fastball has averaged a few ticks over 95 mph, while his slider looks to be a fantastic secondary pitch. He hasn't thrown his changeup much (six times, according to Texas Leaguers), but he hasn't really needed to.

As opponents build a larger bank of experience on Reed, he'll need to utilize his changeup more, but for now his fastball-slider combo has been lethal.

Reed's meteoric rise should allow the Sox to move Sale to the starting rotation next year, and while that could mean more meaningful innings for Will Ohman, whatever struggles he may end up having hopefully will be offset by Reed's successes.

09/13/2011

While the White Sox were being clobbered by Detroit last night, Brent Morel continued his clobbering of baseballs in the final month of the season.

Over the course of two Septembers (and a few days in October), Morel has an OPS of .862 with eight home runs. In no other month does he have more than one home run, and in no other month does he have an OPS over .686.

I generally hate to throw out the "randomness" explanation, because often times it's lazy and used in lieu of actually finding the cause of something...but in this case, Morel's September splits seem awfully random. Perhaps it's because he's facing inferior pitching, but last night, his two home runs came off Rick Porcello and David Pauley, two guys who are hardly September call-up material.

That's pretty much the case for the other September home runs Morel has hit in his career -- all were off legitimate major leaguers, albeit of varying effectiveness from Max Scherzer to Brad Penny to Frank Herrmann.

On one hand, it's good to see Morel actually doing something productive at the plate after hitting around the Rios line for most of the season. On the other hand, it'd be mighty nice if Morel could have multiple months like this -- not to say a 10-home run month like he's on pace for -- instead of just in the dying embers of a season.

I'll be optimistic here and say this gives Morel some good video on which to look at in the offseason, and maybe he can parlay this success into some sustained offense next year. That'd be great, because with his defensive ability and no replacement existing in the Sox system, he's penciled in as the third baseman of the future.

09/12/2011

The chances Ozzie Guillen returns to the White Sox next year have dropped to a coin flip, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.

A few weeks back, a source familiar with Ozzie Guillen’s thinking predicted that it was 95 percent certain that Guillen would remain the White Sox’s manager.

The source has now dropped the odds to 50-50, and says Guillen’s chances of staying are that good only because owner Jerry Reinsdorf has been loyal to him before.

Guillen wants a contract extension, and so far the White Sox are cool to the idea. Something has to give: The return of Guillen as a lame duck would be potentially explosive for both sides. -- Fox Sports

Beerleaguer: While it's hardly Guillen's fault Alex Rios and Adam Dunn have tanked this season (for the record, it's not Williams' fault either for putting them -- especially Dunn -- on the roster, and to suggest it is purely asinine), all the blame falls on Guillen for leaving them in the lineup deep into the season.

And it's even more glaring when you consider Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo have combined to be worth 2.5 WAR in 55 games, while Dunn and Rios have racked up -3.9 WAR in 242 games. If De Aza and Viciedo sent Dunn and Rios to the bench after the All-Star break (with Omar Vizquel and Brent Morel going to Triple-A until the Mark Teahen trade), maybe this week's series against Detroit would actually mean something. Although that's not too plausible, as Detroit has been unstoppable as of late.

From an on-field, tactical standpoint, the Dunn/Rios/De Aza/Viciedo quadrangle is why he won't return. But, perhaps more importantly, his dissatisfaction with his contract situation could lead him to decide to leave.

If the Sox indeed are hesitant to extend Guillen -- as they should be -- it's tough to see him returning for a lame-duck 2012, knowing he'll have to win with a mediocre roster to save his job. If I were in his shoes, I probably wouldn't return. But if I were the White Sox, I wouldn't give him an extension based on how he's bungled quite a few things over the last 20 months.

While Guillen's timing of his contract demands has been awful and completely miscalculated -- who demands job security when they're doing a unsatisfactory work? -- I do understand why he wants it. Again, the 2012 White Sox aren't looking like they'll stack up well against Detroit, Cleveland or maybe even Kansas City.

If Guillen was to return, he'd be betting his long-term future with the White Sox on rebounds by Dunn and Rios, a breakthrough by Gordon Beckham and/or success out of a starting rotation that will enter next year with quite a few question marks.

At this point, the situation isn't ideal for either side. Maybe it's best for both sides to mutually agree to part ways after this season.

---

BONUS PEARL JAM LYRICS

behind her eyes there's curtains and they've been closed to hide the flames, remains she knows their future's burning, but she can smile just the same, same and though her mood is fine today there's a fear they'll soon be parting ways

09/10/2011

Since coming to the White Sox, Peavy has set new career highs in ERA, with a 4.63 mark in 2010 and a 4.94 dud in 2011.He's thrown 218 2/3 innings since 2010, fewer than he threw in his Cy Young season of 2007. His strikeout rate has fallen, as has his velocity.

There were some encouraging signs for Peavy this season, as his 3.21 FIP/3.50 xFIP serve as positive notes. Behind those sparkling stats was a decreased walk rate, as Peavy's 1.93 BB/9 is a career low.

There are two ways to approach Peavy's 2011 season, at least in reference to how it'll affect 2012. The first is a pessimistic outlook, which states Peavy's dropped velocity and high ERA are major red flags for his future.

But there's a second view that can be taken, and it's actually somewhat optimistic. Peavy, at some points this season, has begun to learn how to pitch without the overpowering stuff he featured in San Diego. His walk rate is a good indication of that, although that he hasn't increased his ground ball rate is disconcerting.

No matter which line of thinking you subscribe to, the Sox shouldn't count on Peavy for more than 120 innings next season. Unfortunately, though, they'll probably have to, as his enormous salary makes a move to the bullpen worthless.

While things may not be looking up for the Sox next year, a full season of success out of Peavy *could* go a long way toward the Sox avoiding mediocrity.