GOP will do well in the heartland (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota). They should pick up a couple of those Senate seats if not more. Everyone was surprised how well the GOP did in 2016. I think they will surprise again. The shift to GOP there is like the shift to GOP in the South in the early 80’s.

NY 14 is the one to watch.
Will Tammany Hall’s man beat Bernie’s democratic socialist?
If crazy eyes wins, will the dems go full antifa or will the machine politicians counter-revolutionary deviationist Trotskyite hyenas crush the proletariat’s flag bearer?

I think it will be very close, both sides are entrenched in their opinions, although a small number of “walk aways” might move over to Trump.

Both sides trying to turn out their base … antics around Democrat “incivility” and the “Mobs vs Jobs” theme are the biggest drivers for Republican base turnout, the mask hasn’t just slipped, it’s completely off now, replaced by ugly black hoods and bike locks.

My tip for the big race: Republicans by a nose and the Trump Train keeps a rollin.

De ja vu all over again.
5-7 more senate seats. Will hold the house fairly comfy in the end.
Heads will explode.
Fvckwits will march and whine.

When Trump has 40% support from blacks (which would break down to 30% women, 50% men) and the black women don’t turn out for mid-terms because they have to look after their 4 kids from 7 daddies, there is no chance of a Demonrat blue wave.

Mayor Bill de Blasio ✔ @NYCMayor
We’ve registered nearly 900 incarcerated individuals and jail facility visitors to vote in the upcoming general election because it’s their right, and their voices matter.

By the numbers: Last-minute midterms forecasts unanimously predict Democrats winning the House and Republicans keeping the Senate.
Strategists from both parties have predicted Dems will win around 35 House seats (they need 23 to take control of the House.)
That’d be better for Trump than the 37 seats lost on average for a president with an approval below 50% during his first midterm election.

They say Trump rallies have no effect on election results in specific districts.
.
Time will tell whether the “pundits” have got any better.

How sample-stacking works and why this year’s polling is as inaccurate as 2016’s polling:

Bill Mitchell‏Verified account @mitchellvii
The RCP Generic Average even with its ridiculous 25% Republican samples, has Democrats only +7. Due to districting, Republicans have a built-in 6 point advantage. That means it is really D+1. With MOE of 4, that means it could be R+3 even with the bad samples.

The Dems will cheat even harder than 2016…and still lose. There will be some funny results and the raging hysterics and denialism of 8/11/16 that will be repeated will be something to behold. The only danger the Reps face is from the Leftlash, there will be some very broken and disturbed people wanting blood.

Lotocoti, De blasio will get da mob to rub the cammie bastid out n dump him in de east river. A normal tammany trick the democrats are good at that plus taking bribes ,oh and getting dead people to vote for them . Bit like the alp only in a far higher class ,olympic class .
Really polls are rarely accurate and pundits are no better ,especially when its left against right,they veer left always they are a nit like racehorse tipsters often wrong I remember the newspaper tipsters used to have a contest to see who LOST the least money in a year .
The democrats resurrection team will be busy today ,talk about raising the dead ,they have to keep the swamp going out its their only hope the useless maggots.

OK, so where is the best site on line to watch it develop tomorrow? And I don’t mean the most biased or flavoured either way, but rather the most up to date, accurate, balanced, easy to understand, best maps, graphs, number crunching, analysis, all those things. Any guidance or suggestions most welcome thanks.

ACTOldFart
#2857947, posted on November 6, 2018 at 3:26 pmOK, so where is the best site on line to watch it develop tomorrow? And I don’t mean the most biased or flavoured either way, but rather the most up to date, accurate, balanced, easy to understand, best maps, graphs, number crunching, analysis, all those things. Any guidance or suggestions most welcome thanks.

If you have pay TV, ACTOldFart, Fox News Channel (Foxtel channel 606) and/or Breitbart.com for coverage that isn’t barking partisanship at you like Their ABC, Nein News, Channel Stokes, Their Sky or The Australian will be.

A reporter named Brenda Battel from the Huron Daily Tribune calls Michigan Senate Candidate John James to schedule an interview. She leaves a voicemail with the details of her request, then…. accidentally didn’t hang up the phone correctly; so the recording continues to pick up her comments.

What you hear next, after Ms. Battel thinks she has hung up, is the personification of media bias. Listen:

The majority of that article is BS progressive propaganda and it isn’t difficult to imagine who he interviewed to write it. ‘Voter suppression’ is the progressive codeword for steps taken to defeat voter fraud.

His mistaken idea that one must vote on Tuesday for instance. All states offer early voting these days. In the case of Florida, the polls have been open for 8 days prior to the actual ‘election day’. Vote-by-mail ballots have been available since 2 Oct. So they have had an entire month to vote if they chose that way.

He also claims not allowing someone to register using a post office box as their address is voter suppression. No, this is a perfect example why that isn’t allowed in most states. Vociferous anti-Trump comedian Steven Colbert and his family have bee using a post office box to register and vote somewhere they don’t even live. That same comedian loves to claim there is no such thing as voter fraud, and he’s guilty as hell of it.

Yes, there are a heap of things wrong with the US voting system but they almost all involve making it too lax rather than too difficult.

Will do a more detailed prediction later this evening, suffice it to say that the blue wave is real, but I expect some major reversals to the trend in places like Georgia and North Dakota where the Republican incumbents have been openly cheating. And of course Trump won’t lift a finger to defend democracy.

Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
So funny to see the CNN Fake Suppression Polls and false rhetoric. Watch for real results Tuesday. We are lucky CNN’s ratings are so low. Don’t fall for the Suppression Game. Go out & VOTE. Remember, we now have perhaps the greatest Economy (JOBS) in the history of our Country!
7:18 AM – 5 Nov 2018

Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
So funny to see the CNN Fake Suppression Polls and false rhetoric. Watch for real results Tuesday. We are lucky CNN’s ratings are so low. Don’t fall for the Suppression Game. Go out & VOTE. Remember, we now have perhaps the greatest Economy (JOBS) in the history of our Country!
7:18 AM – 5 Nov 2018

Okay so, predictions. My opinion is that if you aren’t prepared to test your opinion at a time like this with an immediately testable hypothesis, your opinions aren’t worth much.

I think the shift of the Republicans to being a rural party working the natural and man-made gerrymanders for all they are worth accelerates greatly tomorrow. This will mean they get thumped in the House with a raft of losses in the suburbs as they get deserted by white middle-class women, but pick up multiple Senate seats in smaller states like Montana, and maybe even pinch New Jersey. O’Rourke to come up well short in Texas.

The Democrats need to win 23 more seats in the House to get the majority, I think they blow past that and go beyond 40. Not that it’s going to matter much who gets the majority really, because not much legislation is going to be passed regardless.

One of the major headlines is going to be electoral irregularities in Republican-controlled swing states, like what Brian Kemp is doing in Georgia to suppress the black vote and the GOP is doing to disenfranchise Native Americans in North Dakota. That kind of bastardry works, it’s condoned by Trump’s SCOTUS, and it’s going to turn elections tomorrow.

The silent protest of the rust belt was thought to be the biggest mover in 2016, so can we expect Red votes to be similarly higher than current pre-election polling shows?
Or could that be counteracted by a larger reduction in Blue voter apathy setting off blue ballot booth boogie?

m0nty
#2858261, posted on November 6, 2018 at 11:21 pmOne of the major headlines is going to be electoral irregularities in Republican-controlled swing states, like what Brian Kemp is doing in Georgia to suppress the black vote and the GOP is doing to disenfranchise Native Americans in North Dakota. That kind of bastardry works, it’s condoned by Trump’s SCOTUS, and it’s going to turn elections tomorrow.

On the one hand you predict a massive Dem. victory in the house, but at the same time explain away their loss, should it come to that.

Nice footwork.

PS, I’m not familiar with the US gerrymander situation, anyone who is, would you please enlighten us?
Don’t trust M0nty on this.

Following some anecdotal evidence from people who have actually voted, I’m predicting a Republican massacre.
In red counties, the voter turnout is massive. Almost matches the 16 presidential election and certainly far exceeds 14 mid terms.
In blue counties, the turnout is low….very low. Barely up to 14 levels.
Also, it seems most blacks are siting this one out. Tragedy for Demonrats.

Baa Humbug
#2857860, posted on November 6, 2018 at 12:11 pm

De ja vu all over again.
5-7 more senate seats. Will hold the house fairly comfy in the end.
Heads will explode.
Fvckwits will march and whine.

When Trump has 40% support from blacks (which would break down to 30% women, 50% men) and the black women don’t turn out for mid-terms because they have to look after their 4 kids from 7 daddies, there is no chance of a Demonrat blue wave.

Looks like black women with 4 kids to 7 daddies aren’t bothering to go out to vote. No free Obama phones I guess.

Republican enthusiasm is far higher than Demonrat enthusiasm.
I now give the R’s an even chance to get 59-60 senate seats, and retain the house comfortably.

m0nty
#2858261, posted on November 6, 2018 at 11:21 pm
One of the major headlines is going to be electoral irregularities in Republican-controlled swing states, like what Brian Kemp is doing in Georgia to suppress the black vote and the GOP is doing to disenfranchise Native Americans in North Dakota

Fvck off you racist piece of shit.
Claiming blacks don’t have the wherewithal to get ID is about as racist as it gets.

Gerrymandering in the US is the practice of rearranging the boundaries of electoral districts. It is a process which takes place about every 10 years in a given state. Both major parties have been accused of using the process to their advantage. Both parties will undoubtedly continue to lobby for advantage in this way.

One thing to keep in mind when someone cries ‘foul’ due to gerrymandering, it that it is impossible to gerrymander Presidential, Gubernatorial or US Senate elections. So take it with a grain of salt when they start whinging about disenfranchisement and such.

On the other hand, if you want to see what ridiculous levels of gerrymandry look like, zoom in on Chicago on this map. Half of those districts have outposts that aren’t even physically connected. In fact, Republicans are challenging the worst of them in court as I type.

Bottom line, everyone does it and will always do it. It’s basic political maneuvering. Why are the Dems talking it up so much today? Because it’s one more way to potentially accomplish in Court what they cant accomplish in the ballot box.

m0nty
#2858261, posted on November 6, 2018 at 11:21 pm
One of the major headlines is going to be electoral irregularities in Republican-controlled swing states, like what Brian Kemp is doing in Georgia to suppress the black vote and the GOP is doing to disenfranchise Native Americans in North Dakota

Fvck off you rac!st piece of shit.
Claiming blacks don’t have the wherewithal to get ID is about as rac!st as it gets.

Regarding ‘gerrymander’ and the Kemp/ Abrams race in Georgia and why the Dems are quacking about it…

The winner of this election will also have the ability to influence the state’s redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Georgia state law, the Georgia General Assembly is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.

I guarantee that if the Dems win you’ll never hear another peep about it as they go gerrymandering their little bums off.

As to the other thing Kemp has done lately, the state Democratic Party apparently tried to hack the Georgia State voter registration system. The Georgia Bureau of Investigations was able to stop it, conduct a preliminary investigation, and the case has been turned over to the FBI. The Dems immediately screamed “voter suppression”.

About the GOP “suppressing native American votes”, see my earlier post regarding the illegality of using a post office box as an address for voter registry. Sucks when rules get enforced.

The SMH has a little article on the front page about how the Dementocrats are poised to take the house.

Please please please please let them be wrong – I love watching people who congratulate themselves on their awesome intelligence trying to work out how they got something wrong while the people they think are stupid get it right.

I expect they have looked no further than the polls because they give the prediction they want and investigating further might mean discovering it is wrong.

As to the other thing Kemp has done lately, the state Democratic Party apparently tried to hack the Georgia State voter registration system. The Georgia Bureau of Investigations was able to stop it, conduct a preliminary investigation, and the case has been turned over to the FBI. The Dems immediately screamed “voter suppression”.

About the GOP “suppressing native American votes”, see my earlier post regarding the illegality of using a post office box as an address for voter registry. Sucks when rules get enforced.

A citizen alerted Kemp that his electoral software system was full of security holes, and he blamed Democrats for it with zero evidence.

As for post boxes, you don’t lose the franchise because you are homeless or live on a reservation. You should still have the right to vote regardless of where you live.

Actually, it’s better than once was,. Twenty years ago it included slices of Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens — the only rationale being that it brought together primarily black neighbourhoods. As I recall, the boundaries were defended on identitarian grounds that the electorate should reflect “the African-American voice”.

As long as that voice voice dutifully says “Democrat! Democrat!”, no worries