In this Briefing, we argue that these assumptions do not reflect the political situation on the ground. The major changes to South Sudan’s political terrain before and after the violence in July 2016 mean that the current peace process has collapsed. Juba is already ‘stabilized’ because of the shift in the balance of power in the city since July; this stability, however, does not protect civilians. The real question is what the Regional Protection Force will do when confronted with abuses perpetrated by government soldiers or government-allied militias. Finally, we argue that the ‘government/rebel’ dichotomy is misleading, and that soldiers and security forces use this rhetorical dichotomy to justify systematic looting and violence against civilians. Against this background, we believe that South Sudan is on a path towards disintegration, and that a small-scale effort like the Regional Protection Force will either make no difference or make matters worse.