In the last few years, phones have typically been categorized as
either "smartphones" or "feature phones." Smartphones are really just
better phones. Conversely, the feature phone label is a particularly
unfortunate euphemism for "crappy."

Thankfully, soon the
category known as "feature phone" will begin to fade away. This is
because most of the basic system features in a phone are the same. Most
all phones are expected to have an address book, messaging, a camera,
media playback, etc. The difference between phones is primarily the
quality of the software that drives the features and ties them
together. The difference is between smart and dumb.And
yet, feature phones have dominated. Why? No one walks into an AT&T
store and says, can I have one of those "dumb phones." However, the
market *is* price sensitive and so, since smartphones sell at a
shrinking, but still consequential premium, adoption has been more
limited. However, within the next year or two, after one more turn of
Moore's Law, there will be no need to sell phones that don't have basic
smartphone usability. Within this timeframe, even the most basic
hardware will support a real operating system.

In short, real soon now, all phones will be "smart," because anything else will be, well... stupid.

As the market shifts, and software becomes the primary differentiator, this will trigger radical shifts in the marketplace.

For
example, can Symbian compete, from a quality-of-experience or developer
platform perspective, with a Google Android based system, let alone
Apple OS X? I don't think so. Over time I don't even think their user
experience can best the much maligned Window's Mobile, given
Microsoft's Terminator-like indefatigability. And what about RIM? Will
they be able to play effectively against the entering titans?

The
next 18 months will be a phone OS battle royal. And how the market
shakes out in this software battle will really determine who the
handset winners and losers are.And
so, despite Nokia's newly attained 40% market share, their total
dependence on Symbian suggests that trouble is likely ahead. Weak
software has been a significant part of Motorola's downfall as
industrial design ceased to justify a pricing premium. And though Nokia
has better software than Motorola, it is still weak. Today Nokia announced
it is acquiring Trolltech, a Linux mobile OS platform vendor. This is a
tepid, but at least credible response to the obvious problem with their
Symbian dependence. However, much more is needed for them to truly be
responsive to the tectonic shifts in the market.

In short, no
one's position is safe. Everything is up for grabs. Because I don't
care how many phones you sold last year. As Motorola will surely tell
you, suck is suck.