Sunday, January 16, 2011

Thome's production is tied to his health

Back at the end of 2009, the commonly accepted belief was that Jim Thome was done.

During one Sunday Night Baseball broadcast, Joe Morgan took
the opportunity to tell the nation that he no longer felt that Thome was
capable of playing at an elite level. “See,” remarked Morgan, “he cannot get to
the fastball.”

Jim Thome had just lifted a weak fly ball out to mid-left
field, inciting Morgan’s analysis of the situation. In reviewing
the video, you can see that the big lefty is barely able to get around on
the Padres’ Heath Bell’s 95-mph fastball. As Thome trotted up the baseline, he
returns to the dugout, gesturing to Dodgers’ manager Joe Torre and their
trainer that his foot was giving him problems – again.

During the replay, Morgan continued: “It’s very difficult,
you know, for Thome to get around on it. Even on 3-1. He is sitting dead-red on
the fastball.”

To be sure, Morgan’s anecdotal observation was also reinforced
with some pretty damning evidence (which I’m sure he would never care to read) that
agreed with his statement. In addition to being overwhelmed by fastballs, which
we will see shortly, Thome also had troubles pulling the ball with any
authority:

Pulled
HR%

Pulled
Slugging%

2008

41%

.685

2009

17%

.520

2010

36%

.779

(via HitTrackerOnline.com & Fangraphs.com)

After pulling 41% of his home runs in 2008, leading to a
.685 slugging percentage on pitches pulled, Thome’s pull power dropped
dramatically the following season. In 2009, he launched just 17% of his home
runs to right and slugged a career-low .520 when pulling pitches. Of course,
this most recent season, Thome thumbed his nose at Morgan and everyone else by
demonstrating he could still mash to right field, sending 9 of his 25 home runs
in that direction and amassing a hearty .779 slugging percentage.

The second indicator that Thome was running out of gas was
the fact that he was unable to catch up to fastballs:

Lg.
Avg

2007

2008

2009

2010

BA on Fastballs

.294

.316

.263

.239

.337

Well-Hit Avg on Fastballs

.096

.130

.091

.099

.132

Contact on Fastballs

45%

39%

38%

35%

41%

(via InsideEdge.com)

Like Morgan said, Thome had suffered a noticeable decline in
his contact rate on fastballs. In addition to that, Thome had not done the same
type of damage as he was used to inflicting.

In 2007, Thome handled fastballs extremely well. That
season, according to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Type Value, he was 29 runs above
average on heaters. The following year his production on fastballs started to decline
noticeably as he was only 9.4 runs above average. In 2009, as his ability to
make contact dropped to just 35%, he was 10.3 runs above average on the fastball.
Nevertheless, like his sudden resurgence to pull the ball again, Thome
confirmed that he could indeed get around on the hard stuff still. His numbers
in this department were some of the best since his ’07 season as he finished 22.9
runs above average on fastballs.

Was age really the culprit behind his 2009 decline? How
could he have rebounded so quickly in his late 30s when most players are making
arrangements to coach single-A ball?

While age certainly could have been influential on this
sharp decline, it now appears more likely that lingering injuries played a more
substantial role in Thome’s 2009 drop-off than aging did. That year, Thome struggled
with staying healthy. In fact, competing with a historically balky back was a nagging
foot injury, identified in his plantar fascia, which cropped up in the spring.

Following a rather slow start to the season by his standards,
Thome revealed that his left foot flared up on him, sidelining him for several
games before being cleared to play again. Following a cortisone injection, for
a good chunk of the season Thome appeared to be his usual self, launching 18
homers in 313 plate appearances from May 1 to August 16 while turning in a
.257/.393/.514 batting line in that period.

In mid-August, however, Thome’s left foot once again
impaired his abilities to play. The slugger sat out for another four games and
returned only to provide a fraction of the jolt he supplied in the middle of
the season. At the waiver deadline, Thome was traded to the Dodgers in a cash-saving
deal for the Sox. Relegated to pinch hitter duties in the NL, his addition did
little for Los Angeles. In his final 58 plate appearances of that season following
his second foot injury, Thome hit .241/.276/.352.

As a designated hitter whose sole responsibility is to hit, Thome
required that stabilizing force on his back foot. In an isolated instance
below, you can see how this pain might influence a swing:

Focus on Thome’s feet - particularly the back foot. It is as
if he is putting little to no pressure on his back leg. Typically, at the point
of contact, hitters want to have just their toes touching the ground from their
rear leg, pivoting and twisting that foot in order to gain power from their
trunk and leverage the legs in the swing. In this example, there is very little
leverage in the lower-half, meaning all of his power is coming from upstairs.

If his foot was causing him to alter his swing by placing
less weight on his back leg, this would certainly affect his mechanics and
result in a decrease in pull power as well as a reduction in bat speed. It is a
stark contrast to his swing from 2010:

Here we see sound mechanics from his lower-half. His back
foot is twisting effortlessly and his he is clearly capable of generating power
as he was better able to put weight on his back leg. Because of this reign of
health, Thome was able to put up the numbers that he did. Able to pivot and
place pressure on his back foot, Thome demonstrated that he could turn on
pitches and catch up to the fastballs that had thwarted his attempts in 2009.

What does this mean going forward in 2011?

Once again, age does play a factor. Naturally, injuries and
ailments heal much slower and tend to loiter a bit longer on older players.
However, unlike most of the AL teams interested in DHs, the Twins were not
looking for a full-time player. Thome will likely be utilized in that pinch
hitter, part-time DH role that was assigned to him prior to Justin Morneau’s
concussion (provided the first baseman is ready to go in the spring). This rationing
of his plate appearances should help keep him healthy.

"A
couple years ago, I was a little banged up. Not playing every day, I kind of
healed up a little bit from the little injuries that I had the year before.
Then, when I got home this winter and my body wasn't beat up, I said, 'Wait a
minute, this may work out.'"

A healthy Thome is capable of inciting a charge into a
fastball and yanking pitching deep into the right field stands. His
.283/.412/.627 batting line last year is evidence enough of that.

Still, much like the end of last year, if the Twins start to
get the urge to play him more regularly, he is liable to tweak his back as he
did at the end of September. Although it would be statistically advantageous to
place him in the lineup at DH and moving Kubel to the outfield against
right-handed pitchers, this regular playing time might take a toll on his foot
or back, rendering him useless later in the season. Management should practice
restraint when using Thome in effort to avoid turning him into a paperweight on
the bench.

7 comments:

Spot on video examples, Parker, loved the differentiation made between/reasons for Thome prod. levels from 2007-2010. Great stuff, rethinking assertion I made today at my blog re: Jim's playing time (classicminnesotatwins.blogspot.com).

While in theory, I would love to have Thome in the lineup against every right-handed pitcher, I simply do not think it that his body can handle that kind of activity anymore.

I think he and the Twins realize this as his contract was a very reasonable $3M, paid for part-time duties. The incentives, I'm sure, were structured as such so in the event someone like Morneau is unable to play and Thome is pressed into regularly duties once again, he will be compensated as such.

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