Out on a limb: A dozen lawmakers imperiled by their health-reform vote

Democratic leaders scored a dramatic, narrow victory last night on health reform. For a handful of lawmakers, it could be a career-changing (or is that career-ending) vote?

Here are a dozen House members whose political careers could be imperiled by their votes:

1. Joseph Cao, R-La. Most of our list will be Democratic, but the accidental congressman from New Orleans almost certainly will be voted out of office after switching his position and voting against the reform plan.

2. Baron Hill, D-Ind. This is the mother of all swing districts. Hill has been voted out of office (and back into it) before. The revolving door may revolve again in 2010.

3. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz. He upset an incumbent in a Democratic year. But his district voted Republican in each presidential election of this century, so he’s on the political bubble.

4. Michael Arcuri, D-N.Y. He switched from “yes” in November to “no” last night. Liberals are vowing revenge — even if that means electing a Republican. At least that’s what they’re saying today.

5. Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind. It could be a Hoosier Democratic massacre. This tough-talking former sheriff switched sides on health reform after switching races (from a House re-election battle to the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Evan Bayh). His vote will please the Democratic base, but will it help him among independent swing voters?

6. Bill Owens, D-N.Y. He’s the first Democrat to represent the northlands in a century. He kept his word, running as an advocate of health reform and voting for it twice. But Republicans will paint him as an accidental congressman out of touch with his constituents.

7. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H. She represents a swing district and is far more liberal than her generally centrist constituents. Her consistent support for reform is a political risk.

8. John Boccieri, D-Ohio. If arm-twisting is a political liability, he could be in trouble. Taking a Republican seat two years ago, he voted no on health reform, version one. But he yielded to enormous pressure from his leaders and sweet talk from the White House. Always dangerous..

9. Chris Carney, D-Pa. Another Democrat in a Republican-leaning district who replaced a scandal-plagued GOP incumbent in a Democratic year. The 2010 climate (and his support for reform) could put him at risk.

10. Suzanne Kosmas, D-Fla. Another Democratic freshman in a Republican district, her district went for John McCain in 2008 and isn’t likely to back Democrats for Senate and governor in 2010. She’s been a star among freshmen, but she is sure to get attacked for her flip-flop (no in November; yes in March) on health reform.

11. Betsy Markey, D-Colo. Another vote-switcher, Markey has been marked for defeat by Republicans. Colorado, an Obama state, has seen a backlash against Democrats over the past year. Markey and appointed Sen. Michael Bennet are hoping that health reform begins a Democratic revival.

12. Paul Hodes, D-N.H. This House member, seeking an open Senate seat in a swing state, was in a no-win position. Voting against reform would anger his Democratic base. Voting for it would anger many independents. In the end, he’s counting on a newly charged-up base helping him to seize a Republican seat in the Senate.