I'd be wary of anything other than a clear lead for "generic Democrat". Kapanke does look doomed, and Hopper is in quite a bit of trouble as well. Beyond that I wouldn't count any of them as being in the bank for the Democrats.

So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So in theory the "recalled" official could decide to not even run?

isn't that how it is will all recall elections? Gray Davis wasn't even on the ballot in his recall (though that was because he was supporting a "no" vote on the actual recall provision)

So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So in theory the "recalled" official could decide to not even run?

isn't that how it is will all recall elections? Gray Davis wasn't even on the ballot in his recall (though that was because he was supporting a "no" vote on the actual recall provision)

Cruz Bustamante ran on the recall ballot while calling on people to vote against the recall, though. If Gray Davis were allowed to run, I imagine that he would have done so.