Sunday, June 1, 2008

I just stumbled upon another blog that has been examining similar issues for quite a long time and has quite a readership. He, a self-proclaimed realist, has gone through the wide range of emotions and thought processes that I am currently attempting to sort out for myself. I highly recommend reading this for a rebuttal for the Kunstler/doomsday crowd. It is a 'realists' perspective: everything may not turn out to be moonbeams and rainbows, but it will not be the end of modern civilization, either. I have been trying to sort out exactly what is going to happen, and how bad it is going to be. It is important to consider a wide range of sources, opinions and viewpoints while maintaining a level head.

'Peak Oil Debunked' is a bit of a misnomer, he is not arguing oil is a infinite resource that will never be depleted. From my initial readings, he is merely providing another point of view that sometimes clashes with the current 'doomsday' crowd. I, too, am attempting to find that balance.

The doomers may or may not be correct about our inability to switch theenergy basis of our civilization, but their case is far from proven. The merefact that people are debating what to do shows that a lot of people (even thedoomers) don't believe the future is totally out of our hands. The track recordof doomsday forecasts is poor - no one can really know the future. The smugcertaintly of the doomers that they've got all the answers is what finally shookme out from their midst. The doomers are right about one thing - fossil energysources aren't going to see us through the 21rst century. But if we don't changecourse soon, the way forward isn't going to be an agrarian utopia. It will bepowered, at least in the US and for the remainder of my life, by coal. Theenvironmental effects of that (primarily sea level rise from global warming)aren't the legacy I want to leave to future generations.

If going back to the land is appealing to you, that's terrific! No one'sstopping you, or any of the doomers either. In fact, it's a good thing to havepeople make some worst-case preperations, just in case the doomers are right.But if, like me, you think technological and industrial civilization issomething worth preserving, then let's get to work. Don't be fooled by doomertechnobabble. This stuff isn't really too hard for the average person tounderstand. Look for yourself. And not just at the self-serving prophets ofdoom, many of whom simply cite each other in a kind of circular support system.Check your prejudices at the door and actually look at sites from the nuclearpower industry, renewable power advocates, and environmentalists. Sift them forbiases to get to the facts. And keep thinking for yourself.