Islamic militants carried out a new wave of political violence and attacks on tourists as Pres. Hosni Mubarak faced renewed pressure for reform from both the establishment and the legitimate opposition. Abroad the president played a central role in the Middle East peace process, while a new three-year program was agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), providing further evidence of Egypt’s progress toward liberalization of the economy.

On October 4 a nationwide presidential referendum endorsed Mubarak for a third six-year term. A major campaign by the ruling National Democratic Party left Cairo plastered in "Yes, to Mubarak" posters, and the president, who was the only candidate, duly received 96% of the valid votes cast. However, only about 19 million Egyptians, or some 33% of the total population, bothered to register for what was seen by many as a foregone conclusion.

The day after the referendum, the president promoted the defense minister, Gen. Muhammad Hussain Tantawi, to the rank of field marshal--only the fifth Egyptian army commander to receive this honour in 40 years. Nevertheless, Mubarak declined to name a vice president--and, therefore, heir apparent--at the beginning of his third term. The government’s alliance with the military remained strong, with Tantawi stating on October 11 that the armed forces were ready to intervene as a last line of defense against the regime’s increasingly violent Islamic opponents.

During his inauguration on October 13, the president promised the People’s Assembly "new blood," but when his new Cabinet was announced, it was hallmarked by continuity rather than change. Prime Minister Atef Sedki, in office since 1986, was retained and became the longest serving Egyptian prime minister since Gamal Abdel Nasser’s coup in the 1950s. Eleven new ministers joined the 34-member Cabinet, but the key portfolios of foreign affairs, defense, interior, finance, petroleum, and information were untouched.

Among the major ministerial changes were the appointments of Ismail Hassan, a seasoned commercial banker, as the new central bank governor with Cabinet rank; Atef Obeid as minister for the public business sector and environmental affairs; Mahmoud Muhammad Mahmoud as minister of economy and foreign trade; and Mamdouh Beltagui as tourism minister. The latter promotion was at the expense of Fouad Sultan, a popular figure with the business community, who was fired from the top job at tourism.

Domestic Affairs

The new government quickly affirmed its determination to continue iron-fisted policies against fundamentalist-inspired violence, which had led to the killing of more than 200 people in 18 months and a severe slump in tourism. Although attacks on Coptic Christians diminished, assaults on tourists intensified in 1993. On June 8 a bomb was thrown at a tourist bus in Giza’s Pyramid Road, killing an Egyptian and wounding five foreigners and nine Egyptians. Later in the year a gunman shot dead two Americans and one Frenchman as they dined at Cairo’s expatriate-managed Semiramis Hotel. In March, the bloodiest month for militant attacks, 45 people were killed (including at least 29 killed by security forces) in bomb attacks, raids, and shootouts between religious extremists and the security forces; about 700 suspects were rounded up. On March 29, al-Jama`a al-Islamiya, an extremist group, claimed responsibility for an explosion at the pyramid of Chephren. In a fax to news organizations on March 5, it warned investors "to liquidate their investments in Egypt at the earliest opportunity," as they could become a target. A second fax sent on March 30 warned tourists and investors to quit Egypt before it was too late.

On March 20, Egypt’s Nobel Prize-winning novelist Naguib Mahfouz published a warning to the government in an Italian newspaper, which was widely quoted in the local press. He urged the authorities to heed demands for democratic reforms and said growing corruption in government was making Egyptians respond favourably to extremists.

On April 18 the interior minister, Muhammad ’Abd al-Halim Moussa, was sacked in what was seen as a signal to militants that there would be no negotiated truce. Moussa had embarrassed the government by sanctioning mediation efforts with the militants through the efforts of a television evangelist, Sheikh Muhammad Mitwalli ash-Sharaawi. His successor, Hassan Muhammad al-Alfi, a former governor of Asyut, promised a new approach through tougher police action. On August 18 terrorists detonated a bomb as Alfi’s motorcade neared the Interior Ministry--the second abortive attempt to assassinate a member of the Egyptian government. In April guerrillas had ambushed the minister of information, Muhammad Safwat ash-Sharif, who was slightly wounded. The August bomb killed 5 people and wounded 16, including Alfi. It was carried out by the Vanguards of Conquest, a hitherto unknown extremist splinter group. Prime Minister Sedki escaped injury in a car-bomb attack on November 25, which killed a schoolgirl and wounded 21 others. On December 29 government forces arrested a number of militants thought to be planning the assassination of officials.

The government also cracked down on the more moderate Islamic movement, represented by the banned Muslim Brotherhood, by rushing through new laws restricting trade unions. In elections to the journalists union on March 21, a Mubarak supporter was elected chairman, defeating an Islamic candidate. Nevertheless, a government appeal for constitutional parties to unite against extremists was supported by only 5 of Egypt’s 11 political parties and 10 of the 22 unions. The Muslim Brotherhood and its proxy, the Socialist Labour Party, were excluded from the appeal.

On August 14 government policy suffered a setback when a civil judge acquitted Islamic fundamentalist suspects of the 1990 murder of parliamentary speaker Rifaat al-Mahgoub because evidence allegedly had been extracted under torture. By the end of October, however, the mass trials by the military courts--denounced by the London-based human rights organization Amnesty International as a "travesty of justice"--had passed at least 30 death sentences.

On May 24 the 1993-94 budget was passed by the People’s Assembly with a 4.5% rise in total expenditure, less than half the rate of inflation. Egypt managed in 1992-93 to cut its budget deficit to a little over the IMF target of 3.5-4%. Expenditure on food subsidies was to be cut, but the prime minister stressed that there would be no rise in the price of bread. On September 20 the IMF approved a three-year fund facility program for Egypt, backed by about $569 million, but with $17 billion in international reserves Egypt was not expected to draw down the funds. Having received the IMF loan, Egypt was free to enter the second stage of its 1991 Paris Club debt-restructuring agreement. To achieve the IMF deal, Egypt accepted preconditions that included further steps on economic reform.

Foreign Affairs

Egypt’s support for the Middle East peace process was a major boost for U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton, although Cairo felt slighted at the lack of recognition of its mediation role. Egyptian mediation efforts also extended to its western neighbour, Libya. In November Jordan’s King Hussein visited Cairo for talks with Mubarak, ending the three years of bitter relations that had begun with the Persian Gulf crisis in 1990.

On May 9-16, Mubarak undertook a tour of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in an effort to isolate Iran, which Egypt accused of backing Islamic extremist groups. Mubarak claimed he had details of Iranian "mobilizations" of warships around Port Sudan, 100 km (160 mi) south of the disputed Hala`ib border area, and threatened to strike immediately if the warships used the port. The GCC states, however, were nervous about offending Iran and declined to give explicit public support. Mubarak was more successful in cutting off Gulf state funds for the militants in Egypt, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates issued decrees banning nongovernmental Muslim charities from sending money abroad.

The 29th summit of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) took place in Cairo on June 28-30, presided over by Mubarak as the new OAU chairman--the second time in 10 years. At the meeting Mubarak met the Sudanese president, Lieut. Gen. Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir, and agreed to halt a war of words with the Sudanese government. On June 22, The Sudan had ordered Egypt to close its consulates in Port Sudan and al-Ubbayid as tension mounted over Egypt’s military warning to The Sudan over movements in the Hala`ib border area.

On July 4, Egypt requested the extradition from the U.S. of Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman, the spiritual mentor of al-Jama`a al-Islamiya, over alleged involvement in violence in 1989. Sheikh Omar was arrested in the U.S. on July 2 on immigration charges. Fourteen men with links to the sheikh were also indicted in the U.S. in connection with the February 26 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York City and other crimes. Lawyers queried the validity of Cairo’s request, as Egypt’s only extradition treaty with Washington dated to 1874. John Whelan

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