Is there any way to evaluate those numbers in terms of the American Reform/Conservative/Orthodox divide?

No, Conservative and Reform Judaism combined are maybe 1% of the population.

Haredi is the same as what would be called ultra orthodox in America (black hats).Religious is all the the orthodox in America except for the Ultra orthodox.Masorti tend to keep some of the mitzvot and go occasionally to synagogue, but when they go it's to an orthodox one.Secular are of course the least likely to keep to traditions but even they, if they would go to a synagogue it would most likely be an orthodox one, and when they think of what "real Judaism" is they would think of orthodox, even if they choose not to follow it.