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Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Macro's One-way Street

I live on a one-way street that's also a dead end. I'm not sure how I got there. - Stephen Wright

Despite the incessant clarion calls by the deflationists that the dominant macro trade: long US dollar, long Treasuries and short oil - will extend indefinitely; the bend in the road in Q1 and the familiar patterned streetscapes, continue to point towards an approaching U-turn in this one-way street. Long-term Treasuries appear poised for a downside reversal - and are completing a similar descending topping pattern, evident in the two previous multi-year Treasury rallies. We maintain our expectations that the 10-year yield will challenge overhead resistance around 2.65 percent later this year and see the US dollar index following suit lower - which should provide an exit for commodities from the dead end street they've remained in since Q2 2011.

F ound the nugget below waiting for me when I checked in on Twitter last week (red highlight his own). Granted, with the degree of conte...

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Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this website be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment or trading approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational purposes only.