Demographics

Analysis

(October 29) With a week to go Cantwell remains over 50% in the RCP Average and ahead by double digits. No reason to think she will lose.

(October 13) Cantwell appears to have this race in control. She is above 50% in the latest RCP Average, which for an incumbent with less than four weeks to go in this cycle is pretty darn safe. If this were 2002, McGavick would have a real shot at pulling off the upset, but it is 2006 and it’s hard to see how Cantwell loses.

(August 21) This race has tightened and McGavick, while still the underdog, is in a position to pull off the upset. Absent the anti-GOP tide this would be a tossup race where McGavick probably had the advantage; however with the macro winds blowing in favor of the Democrats Cantwell has the upper hand. This is a good race to watch to get a handle on the national mood, for if it moves to a Toss Up and/or McGavick can take the lead in a poll or two, the odds for a national Democratic “tidal wave” decrease appreciably.

(August 7) Mike McGavick is regarded by many to be the most talented Republican challenger in the country this year. As former Chief of Staff to Slade Gorton (whom Cantwell defeated by just over 2000 votes six years ago) and the former CEO of Safeco Insurance, McGavick has a keen sense for politics and the record of a successsful, problem-solving businessman.

And even though McGavick has made the most of his talents and won rave review for his "Open Mike" tour of townhall meetings around the state while Cantwell has been battling war protesters and trying to manage a fractured base, McGavick is still trailing in the polls by roughly 7+ points.

That goes to show not only the power of incumbency but also what sort of headwind McGavick is facing as a Republican running in a solidly blue state.

Cantwell, who is flush with more than $6 million in the bank, recently went up with her first paid media campaign two weeks ago, which also helped extend her lead in the most recent round of polls.

The latest twist in this race is Cantwell's vote against the "trifecta" tax bill in the Senate last week. The bill, which coupled an increase in the minimum wage with a cut in the estate tax, was also sweetened with specific provisions to attract the support of the crucial swing votes of Cantwell an Murray. Both voted against the bill, giving the McGavick campaign fresh ammunition to use against Cantwell.