Nolte: Box Office Slump Continues as ‘Toy Story 4’ Underperforms

Toy Story 4 is a hit, a big hit at the box office with the second best-ever opening for an animated film. But it still missed the mark.

The low-end projection was for a $140 million opening. Box Office Mojo expected $165 million. But there was a ton of talk about a potential $170 – $200 million, or at least a smidge over the current animated record-holder: The Incredibles 2, which opened to $183 million at around this same time last year.

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Instead, Toy Story 4 is projected to open to $136 million. Nothing to sneeze at, and word of mouth could add a few million before Monday morning. But that’s not the shot in the arm the box office needed or anticipated.

As of Thursday, the 2019 box office is 8.8 percent behind 2018, 2.6 percent behind 2017, 1 percent behind 2016, and less than one-half of one-percent ahead of 2015.

String - Flops - Disappointments - Men - Black

A string of outright flops and unexpected disappointments — Men in Black: International, Dark Phoenix, Rocketman, Shazam!, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, The LEGO Movie Part 2, Shaft, Late Night, Secret Life of Pets 2, Booksmart, The Hustle, Long Shot, Hellboy — have so far tanked the summer (so far) and year in ways no one expected. The bright spots have been far and few between.

Toy Story 4 is a bright spot, just not the super nova everyone counted on.

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As far as how this weekend will perform compared to this same weekend last year, Toy Story 4 fell short of the $148 million Jurassic World 2 opened with over the weekend of June 22, 2018. Backing up Jurassic World 2 was another big hit, The Incredibles 2, which earned $80 million in its second weekend to deliver an overall weekend that cleared $271 million. All Toy Story 4 has to back it...