‘The Reader’

Oscar nominees: Best Picture

Why it’ll win: While it may be one of the most grossly plied cliches about Hollywood filmmaking, the Academy loves to favor a Holocaust — or in this case, post-WWII — era pic. And Kate Winslet’s Golden Globe-winning performance as supporting actress (she’s nominated as lead actress by Oscar) can only further cement the film’s award chances.

Maybe not: It’s not the critical darling that “Slumdog” is and the bulk of “Reader’s” accolades pointed toward Winslet’s powerful performance and not the film as a collective whole. Stephen Daldry’s deft directing was also slighted by Globes, an award that went to “Slumdog’s” Danny Boyle, and historically, director props usually follows what’s chosen as top picture.