Tasty Match Bets to Gobble Up!

Kudos to Rob at entertainmentodds.com for highlighting these fantastic match bets from BWIN. Due to our downtime over the last week or so, I’ve kinda lost track of value. Anyway, here’s my take on Bwin’s offering:

Greece vs Norway – 2.20

This is a cracking match bet, given the strength of Greece’s voting bloc. I spent this evening averaging the semi-final finishing positions for each country since 2008, and Greece came out at 2.4 compared to Norway’s far from consistent 8.0. As far as I am concerned, there is only one winner here! If Amsterdam and London proved one thing, Koza Mostra with Alcohol is Free will be very well received in Malmö.

Netherlands vs Serbia – 1.95

This has been backed in a tad, but it still represents solid value when you consider Serbia’s televote strength, in addition to the benefit of performing last in the running order. Birds is a brilliant song and Serbia’s entry could be dismissed as too schlager, but in the context of statistical history, the latter becomes the far stronger entry.

San Marino vs Israel – 1.95

San Marino have been buried in the running order, whereas Israel are at least drawn in the second half. Israel’s more traditional approach will win more votes with the juries than Valentina Monetta’s ballad-schlager mongrel. Israel can count on small support from a few allies too, something San Marino isn’t guaranteed.

San Marino’s high position in the polls is a little disconcerting, but having seen her perform in London, I’m not at all convinced by Valentina’s stage craft. Give her a laptop and some kitsch choreography and she’s fine. this serious stuff just isn’t her forte.

About Gavster

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I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

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20 comments

Iv taken all three of those Gav and got the Serbia one at 2.1.Three cracking bets those.
2 out of 3 will deliver a lovely profit but id expect all 3 of those to land.Nicely put by you why as well.
Israel should destroy San Marino with jury votes alone.Serbia simply have massive vote firepower in this semi without anything else and Greece,well weigh the telvotes dont count them.

These head to head bets are for best SF finish, right? If you guys think Greece will beat Norway then shouldnt you guys be betting Greece to win SF2 @ 11? Or are you confident Georgia will win? I mean surely Azerbaijan wont, right?
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Also, I hope you all are wrong about Valentina and she makes it to top10 and I’m a happy camper! 8)

they have been very good this year Gav bet365 iv found though i was just under 3 figures on that one.Cracking value.
Those staging photos look like nothing to the casual observer but they are gold dust.
Looks like the Spanish staging is poor like you highlighted it always is.Id hoped theyd see they had a good staging song but looks like not.

Simply on value Archi,,3.0s is far too big.The song is very disjointed to me.It could/will be a train wreck on stage.If it was 2.0s i wouldnt back it,but 3.0s is very good value.
I liked it at first until i then saw it for what it really is..Rubbish.

I have no idea Gav,though it was i think 6 on the “jury” awarding the points.I dont know if they followed the EBU pointers or not though i find it very interesting indeed they picked Ukraine over Denmark.Highly likely they did act like a jury would.
Andy might be able to pick apart what went on.
Worth watching the other shows as well to see what they come up with.

Watching that video from Norwegian TV brought back memories of my University days trying to understand Welsh TV. I got excited whenever I heard an English word. My favourite bit was the description of the Montenegro video as ‘cagefight bitchbattle’.
I don’t know what the qualifications of the people on that show were but if their views represented those of juries across Europe then in terms of qualification I’d say it was good news for Slovenia and bad news for Estonia.