Man, I gotta stop reading you-lol. I don't put anyone on ignore. I like you man, but no mas.

In a tie race you gotta like Romney because as they said on TV it's very hard to
get republicans to poll. It's what I've been saying, most of these polls survey DEMs
and unlikely voters.

Barone just said OBY is worried about Wisc where he blew another big lead and he
just stopped in. Barone is calling for Mitt to win FLA as did the congressman I posted above.

And as posted above, Rasmussen gives Mitt a 1-pt lead in the final day before election
and he's the most accurate.

BTW, Barone was criticized in posts above but he just quoted himself in the column
that he could be wrong.

11-05-2012, 01:07 PM

kojo

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haloti92

Silver slightly varying the polls weights doesn't address the issue of (or odds of) systematic failure or bias. Which is exactly the point.

As for Intrade, no thanks. It is liking betting on a 2 to 1 moneyline favorite in the NFL, which can be done any week. And as I said, I don't think "mitt" is going to "eek" it out, I actually think he loses Ohio and hence the election, but we aren't really talking about what will happen, we are talking about people pretending that pseudoscience is science. When you appeal to the results of the pseudoscience as evidence of its scientific nature you are begging the question.

Well said. Fair enough, we'll hopefully know how accurate the state polls were tomorrow but of course we could be in for an ugly recount. Remember the Al Franken election haha. Also what's up with Ohio cutting early voting to 2 pm today anyway? That would seem sort of like cutting the nose to spite the face if you're trying to maximize republican turnout right?

11-05-2012, 01:15 PM

AirFlacco

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Speaking of cutting voting in Ohio, the congressman in FLA said there's been some DEM shannigans
there with the DEM supervisor changing the times of early voting and telling all the DEMs but not
the GOPs.

Looks like DEMs are trying hard to steal another election.

11-05-2012, 01:17 PM

AirFlacco

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

And speaking of state polls, don't forget Kerry's bogus early exit polls showing him winning
by a land slide. That was to discourage GOPs from voting but again he only surveyed
DEMs and mostly female DEMs and mostly Hispanic female DEMs in FLA.

Of course Bush won.

11-05-2012, 01:26 PM

kojo

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Agreed. But he could have a done the Reagan-esqe media blitz, bypassing the MSM. Mitt and his surrogates seem to be taking the McCain approach. You and I both agreed a while back he needed to not be so reliant on the MSM.

If this was 2000 or 2004 sure, but IMO in the age of social media and smart phones people can and do get their news from many sources and not just fox, CNN, NBC, etc, especially if you have twitter. Benghazi is probably not sticking well because people are tired of war and the Middle East in general. What Romney should be doing is spending more time on his economic plan specifics. McCain did a far better job explaining his. Obama's whether we like it or not folks know it since he's been in office 4 years, the ball is in Romney's court to give a strong alternative. That method worked well in 2010 state races but a national election not so much. Of course I could be wrong and Romney wins but at least that can maybe explain the "tightness" of the race.

If Rasmussen is as accurate as they have been the last couple elections, party affiliation going into tomorrow in his polling is R+5.8. For perspective, here is how close he was in '04 and '08. The first column was his polling, and the second column was the actual turnout. Keep in mind his polling isn't 618 likely voters, or 1,500 likely voters. His party ID poll is 15,000 (fifteen THOUSAND) likely voters.

2004

D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2)

D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)

2008

D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3)

D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)

Edit: Rasmussen also predicted a D+3 turnout in 2010. Turnout was actually even D/R, so he gave Democrats a 3 point turnout cushion. So in essence he has been accurate with turnout predictions for a while now.

IF this holds and is true, then none of the toplines in these polls make a bit of difference, Mitt Romney is going to blow the doors off this election tomorrow.

BTW The last CNN poll had Romney and Obama tied with a D+11 sample. And Romney winning Independents by something like 19 points. Plug that into Rasmussen's turnout prediction and Romney may beat Obama nationally by 5-7%. And if that happens, no way in hell he loses the electorial college. If this is an R+6 turnout, losing Ohio means he is picking up enough other big states to offset.

And by the way, for all that BS about Mitt absolutely needing Ohio. That's the narrative. If you look at the RCP map, there are realistic scenerios that could end up with a Romney win.

For example:

There are many who think the Scott Walker recall election created a brand new Republican ground game in Wisconsin. Remember the Democrats and the unions poured MILLIONS into that recall. It wasn't just a little side-election. And Walker got more votes to stave recall than he got elected with. And he is hardly a "Scott Brown" type Republican, he's a die-hard Conservative. There is a real feeling between that and Paul Ryan that they can win that state.

So if he won WI, retook CO, and won FL, NC, and VA, then he would only need something like New Hampshire or Iowa to win. That is with Obama winning Ohio. Everything right now points to Romney winning Florida, NC, and Virginia, and early voting has the GOP up +2% right now.

So we'll see. Like I said, this is a turnout election. IF the electorate is actually R+6, then tomorrow will be a short night.

LOL - Mitt just said in VA, another critical state that's even, "Im looking around to
see if the Beatles are here to entertain you but I' don't see them. I guess everyone is
just here for the campaign and you care about America.

11-05-2012, 03:44 PM

AirFlacco

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Drudge is now reporting that GALLUP joins Rasmussen as Mitt leading
by +1.

These are the most reliable polls but Im still calling for a land slide.

Speaking of PA, over 30,000 showed up in PA to see Mitt in the freezing cold last night.

More large crowds to see Mitt in VA today where Rasmussen has Mitt up by +2.
Britt Hume on FOX said last night he's watching his home state of Va not Ohio.

Romney is leading in eastern Oh and western PA. If the undecideds haven't decided
yet, they will vote tomorrow for Mitt because they just can't make up their mind with
the status quo and Mitt is talking about the future and ways to solve the probs.'

Another guy just said the crowds for Mitt in Ohio and PA are unbelieveable.

Eric Cantor the rising GOP star of the House says Mitt will win his state in VA. Again
the crowds have been unbelieveable..

11-05-2012, 04:41 PM

AirFlacco

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Everything points to a Romney land slide except the polls.

And don't forget The Redskins Rule. The Redskins did us a favor yesterday by losing. In the last 18 of 19 elections where they lost at home just before the election, the incumbent lost. It's called the Redskins Rule-lol. Hail to the RedSkins :). ILMAO

Mitt is winning the early voting in Colorado and the state has been trending right. This
is another blown lead by OBY. Even the DEM expert agreed but his map had them getting
294-300 elect votes w/o it.

ABCs poll has OBY up by +1. This is a DEM network poll.

Charles Krautheimer-sp just said that +2 lead by Mitt could be enough to push him
over. With Col, PA and New Hamp still in play, one of those states could win it for him
he said.

National polls don't matter much this year. It is primarily Ohio that determines the election, followed by Florida and Virginia. Romney has NOT lead in a single Ohio poll recently and only led like once in a poll the whole year. The best recently he did was a tie by Rasmussen. Ohio has been like the most polled state in the country by the left and right and even the right leaners like gravis and we ask America have Obama ahead. Romney has to pray for catostrophically bad dem turnout to get Ohio and based on all that early voting, it is unlikely. Supposed to be sunny and in the 50s there so forget a bad weather swing...now Florida is a totally different story. He has been leading a lot in their polls so he should win that. Virginia is the closest one but even there Romney is leading in just one poll. The problem is it's a Rasmussen poll that has a significantly lower sample size than the other polls and it has a higher than average margin of error of 4 points. Obama could win virginia by 1-2 points (typical edge recent VA polls have obama at) and that would correctly fall in line with what Ras projects. Tomorrow comes down to turnout, plain and simple.

11-05-2012, 07:15 PM

HoustonRaven

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

If Mitt can pull PA and WI, he doesn't need OH.

Now that the campaigning is over, I am putting money on Obama now.

I don't think Mitt moved far enough ahead in the polls to get to the magic EV number.

Hope I am wrong though.

11-05-2012, 07:38 PM

kojo

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

If Mitt can pull PA and WI, he doesn't need OH.

Now that the campaigning is over, I am putting money on Obama now.

I don't think Mitt moved far enough ahead in the polls to get to the magic EV number.

Hope I am wrong though.

Yeah, but it's even worse for him in those states. He hasn't lead in ANY recent polls in either states and it's not even close. Best poll he got is a tie in one PA poll where everyone else has Obama up by 2-8 points. Best case scenario for Romney winning is he somehow wins FL, VA, OH, and Colorado. I think NC is obviously going Romney so those 4 states should do it but he has about the same odds of flipping a coin 4 times in a row and getting heads on all of them. His campaign has sooooooo much money which is why he's doing a hail mary and throwing a bunch of $ into PA and WI and hoping for the best.