Vegas NFL Game Preview & Free Pick: Texans vs Titans

The Houston Texans (7-3) host the Tennessee Titans (5-5) on Monday Night Football in a critical Week 12 AFC South showdown. Kickoff is set for 8:30 PM EST on November 26th at NRG Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Texans listed as 3.5-point home favorites. That line has stayed the same after early betting, as Houston is currently available at -3.5. The total for this matchup is 41.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 12 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Texans vs Titans Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Tennessee dropped back to .500 on the season last weekend after a tough 38-10 loss on the road in Indianapolis. The Titans were badly outplayed on both sides of the ball, as things went from bad to worse after starting QB Marcus Mariota was forced to leave the game with an elbow injury. While his status for Week 12 was initially in doubt earlier this week, he has been cleared to suit up for this critical divisional battle on Monday night. Mariota has had an up and down season, passing for 1,583 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games. He will attempt to build on the momentum he found in Weeks 9 and 10 against Dallas and New England, where he threw for a combined 468 yards and four touchdowns. The biggest wild card for Tennessee on offense so far this season has been WR Corey Davis, who followed up a breakout 7/125/1 performance against New England by catching just two passes for 30 yards against the Colts. As a whole, the offense is currently averaging just 17.8 points per game on 295.4 total yards.

The Titans have been really solid defensively through their first ten games, limiting opponents to an average of just 18.9 points per game (2nd overall) on 334.9 yards of total offense. They have been especially good against the run, giving up only 100.0 yards per game on the ground (10th overall).

Houston improved to 7-3 overall on the season last weekend, as they knocked off Washington 23-21 on the road despite blowing a 17-7 halftime lead. The Texans found a way to get the job when it mattered most, kicking the game-winning field goal midway through the 4th quarter. It has been a remarkable turn around for a team that started out 0-3, as they have now won seven consecutive games and currently sit in first place in the AFC South. QB Deshaun Watson has been enjoying another good season, throwing for 2,597 yards and 18 touchdowns in ten games. He has really been on a roll as of late, racking up 8 touchdowns in his last three starts. WR DeAndre Hopkins is well on his way to another 1,000 yard season, catching 68 passes for 950 yards and 8 touchdowns in ten games. Overall, Houston is currently averaging 23.9 points per game (16th overall) on 364.2 yards of total offense.

The Texans have also been pretty good on the other side of the ball so far this season, holding opponents to an average of 20.5 points per game (5th overall) on 330.5 yards of total offense. Like Tennessee, they have been very good against the run, surrendering only 96.0 yards per game on the ground (6th overall).

Free NFL Betting Prediction: Houston -3.5

There is no way I’m going to pick against the Texans at home in this particular spot, as they have been on a real tear as of late. Deshaun Watson has finally started to find his groove after a slow start, and the receiving trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, and Keke Coutee has to be one of the most talented in the entire league. RB Lamar Miller has also chipped in with several solid performances on the ground, including consecutive 100-yard games at the end of October. Tennessee has been hot and cold this season, especially on offense where Mariota and Co. have either been incredibly dynamic or extremely mistake-prone.

The Titans have had little to no success against Houston as of late, going just 4-11 ATS over their last 15 meetings. They have also had a tough time playing in NRG Stadium, as they are only 1-7 ATS over their last eight visits. On the other side, the Texans have now won seven consecutive games and are a rock-solid 14-7 overall at home.

While Mariota has been cleared to play, there is no doubt that he will still be a little banged up after injuring his elbow barely over a week ago. While both defenses are giving up around 20 points per game, Houston is averaging 6+ more points per game than Tennessee through Week 11. I’m laying the 3.5 points and rolling with the home favorite- give me the Texans.