Tough response may seem inevitable but could play into Tehran's hands

Iran's hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been spoiling for a fight since he was elected last summer. Now it looks as though he has got one, as the US, Britain and EU allies prepared yesterday to refer Iran's nuclear activities to the UN security council for possible punitive sanctions.

The escalating dispute confronts the international community with potentially its biggest challenge since the Iraq war. It resurrects a range of divisive issues, such as the true extent of the global WMD threat, the difficulty of pursuing joint action via the UN, the willingness of the new superpower, China, to play by western rules, and perceived double standards over the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).

Mohamed ElBaradei, the usually cool-headed boss of the UN's nuclear watchdog, said that by resuming nuclear fuel research at its Natanz facility in defiance of previous agreements, Tehran could have crossed a "red line" that made a tough response inevitable. "We are at a stage where what is happening this week could turn into a major crisis," he told the BBC.

But the handling of that crisis, should it materialise, could severely test the cohesiveness of the collective international will, as Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, seemed to acknowledge last week. Washington was accused last year of undermining EU negotiating efforts. But that had changed, she said.

"The first goal was to get a unified position and that had to do with giving diplomacy a chance. We've lived up to our part of the bargain. The Europeans and we could not be in closer coordination.

"The next steps have been to bring others into that consensus: Russia, India, China. So I think you are seeing the consistent and sort of seriatim isolation now of Iran. I don't have any doubt that at a time of our choosing we're going to go to the security council."

A Downing Street statement yesterday asserting that the world was "running out of patience" with Iran apparently sought to reinforce the impression of a united front. But chinks were apparent within hours of Iran's move.

Looking to cool diplomatic temperatures, China urged the EU not to abandon talks with Tehran (as Germany has suggested it might). Beijing said it still believed the issue could be resolved without recourse to the security council. Russia was similarly circumspect. While expressing concern, a senior official said Moscow's offer to enrich uranium on Russian soil and ship low-grade nuclear fuel back to Iran still stood following "professional and honest" talks in Tehran.

Moscow and Beijing have significant commercial ties with Iran that they would not want jeopardised by sanctions.

Dr ElBaradei's confirmation that Iran, which denies seeking a nuclear weapons capability, was acting within its legal rights under the NPT represents another obstacle to a common front. The failure of nuclear-armed states, notably the US, to reduce their arsenals in line with NPT provisions is controversial in developing countries and especially in the Muslim world, where there is sneaking sympathy for Iran.

If it comes to a crunch at the UN, Mr Ahmadinejad may be far from dismayed or deterred. Informed Iranian sources say he has deliberately sought confrontation with the west (and particularly Israel) to strengthen his position and advance his "revivalist revolutionary" policies at home and in the region. While any UN sanctions may have limited economic impact, a high-profile political showdown may serve his purposes.