The First Heat Wave of the Summer

By jeffpenner, on August 25th, 2014

Good Monday bloggers,

It takes three straight days of highs 95° or higher to constitute a heat wave. Well, if we reach our forecast high today of 97° and this is going to be easy, we will have had highs 95°+ for three straight days.

Here are the highs since August 20th and our forecast high of 97° today.

The heat relief is just one state away in Nebraska. Look how comfortable it is with temperatures in the 60s. However, it is locked behind a stationary front. This front is not going to move until Friday and when it moves through the cooler air will be greatly moderated. So, highs Friday into the weekend will be in the 80s. That is still not bad, but it is not as cool as we thought it would become in our forecasts from a few days ago.

So, since the front will be stalled to our north and thunderstorms will be daily occurring along and north of this front, there will be quite a bit of rain across Nebraska and Iowa. We have the potential to see .50″ to 1.50″, mostly Friday into Saturday as this front and a weak storm system move by. The next few days and thunderstorms down here closer to I-70 will be widely scattered.

Any rain with the front should exit Saturday, so much of the Labor day weekend looks nice with highs in the 80s and still a bit humid.

15 comments to The First Heat Wave of the Summer

Thanks for the update Jeff, though it seems each time I look at the blog, watch the weather or look at NWS the news gets bleaker and bleaker. It is beyond frustrating to see rain and cooler temps so close while now we are falling further behind on rain again, after what temporarily looked like we had finally gotten over the hump on widespread rains. Hate to think what the forcast will be tomorrow!

NWS Kansas City…..
There are several definitions of a “heat wave” including the variable of different regions of the country/world. The World Meteorological Organization defines a heat wave as the daily high temperature exceeding the normal high temperature by 9 degrees or more each day, for 5 consecutive days. By that definition, only Saturday and Sunday have fit that category thus far, therefore we’re shy of heat wave status. Regardless, the heat and humidity combination make it dangerous, with heat-related illnesses possible. Take it easy outside and drink plenty of water!

Is our weather so boring that we trumpet 3 days that hit or exceed 95 degrees as a heat wave? Does it really matter? If, on the third day, it hits 96 and stays there for two hours until it comes down, does it really matter? Does it make the previous day’s temp of 95 seem any cooler? Will we wake up on the fourth day when it hits 94 and say “wow, that was some 95-degree heat wave we just had!”?
In addition, I understand that local stations get their “official” temp for the day at KCI but, in reality, KCI is a long way from Olathe, Pleasant Hill, Oak Grove or Harrisonville–all areas in your viewing area considered part of the “metro”. I care more about what my thermometer in my backyard says than the one on the exact opposite end of the metro at KCI.
All I know about this summer is that it has not been as oppressively hot as 2013 and for that I am thankful. My electric bill is half of what it was last summer. I will gladly take 3 95-degree days in a row and I won’t complain. They come and go pretty fast. Suppose to be in the low 80s the end of the week. I guess that means a cold-spell. Bundle up.

Gary and Jeff on the NOW (KSHB 4-5 pm program) just debunked the Farmer’s Almanac prediction of a very cold wet winter. Gary said it is too early to make that prediction, he said the FA forecast “is made on nothing”., and “they are right only 20% of the time.”. Need to wait until November when the new LRC has formed.

Other met blogger is looking at other parameters to see if there are correlations of this year to previous years. Also looking at surface sea temps, arctic ice, El Nino etc. LRC works for cycles of weather, but other info comes into play such as high pressure riding stuck over Pacific NW and possibly the Maritime to the east which affects jet stream and yikes, an open door for arctic air. Time will tell. Could be very interesting winter.

Thanks for the update Jeff. Also kudos to JD for walking through the difficulty in pinpointing weather down to specific communities. I appreciate the difficulty given the models are run in 3D, and there is limited 3D data/actual values over a region to plug into the models. The models are guidance, but there is also the art of reading the guidance at the local scale. Tis not an exact science, but your team does a great job. Hope we do not get major downpours on Thursday since I’m moving!

Too bad the outflow of wind that just blew through didn’t spark some showers. The powercast this morning was showing the weekend rain. What was funny or not so funny is it showed showers approaching then dying out at the metro then reigniting just east and southeast of KC. I think the models have finally caught on to this pattern.

Noticed that too Hockeynut69. I can just see that happening all this rain too our north…then when it should rain here…dying out and then reforming to our south! Our only hope may be if these nightly MCS’s can some how manage to push the front down to KC and screw up the model runs, which have been wrong from the start anyway. If I remember correctly…from last week’s runs…the front was to supposed to have made it down here by now vs slowing down, so anything is still possible.

Hope the 3″ to 6″ bullseye for rain was in the Chillicothe area. Hate this hot dry weather. As far as forcasting the weather even as a weatherman its very hard to do. Mother nature is a hard lady to figure out. She is very could at throwing curves when it comes to the weather. Hope fall is wet and cool. Come on rain!! Hope every one has a great Labor Day. TR