Categories

Posts tagged ‘target’

FX Market Report believe today’s Eurogroup decision for a €130bn Greek bailout won’t be a full agreement, but a partial deal with “difficult and contentious issues unresolved until a later date”.

“Here at FXMR we remain convinced that Greece is irreparably broke and has no sustainable debt dynamic other that a default and a new beginning”, writes Gavin Grier-Rees, stating that Germany, Netherlands and Finland already voice the same opinion. “That’s why we predict ever harsher conditions will be imposed on the Greeks until they eventually are forced from the single currency. What we are seeing here is both sides trying to avoid being given the blame for ending the dream of a single currency”, he adds.

FXMR analysts believe the strong week start, high at 1.3240, was a relief move as Greece didn’t default this weekend.

“Risk‐reward must be to the downside”, with supports at 1.3110-15 and 1.3145-50. As news disappoints, last week’s lows at 1.2975 is next target.

AUD/USD engaged in consolidative trading below 1.0844 last week. Note that AUD/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel, and thus, there is no sign of topping yet. Above 1.0855 will resume recent rally and target a test on 1.1079 high. However, note again that firstly, upside momentum is weak with daily MACD staying below signal line. Secondly, rise from 0.9663 could indeed be a leg of the consolidation from 1.1079. A break below 1.0628 minor support will indicate near term reversal and should flip bias to the downside for 1.0377 resistance turned support and below to extend such consolidation from 1.1079.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We’ll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

Despite dipping to as long 1.2974, EUR/USD rebounded strongly and the breach of 1.3190 minor resistance dampened the immediate bearish view. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading first. On the upside, above 1.3321 will resume the rebound from 1.2625 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627. On the downside, below 1.2974 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It’s hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. Though, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3588) will pave the way for a test on 1.4939 resistance level.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we’d expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

The Euro corrected to my 1.3000/1.2975 target yesterday (as advised in my FX Trading Service to subscribers world-wide) and today I am again bullish on the Euro at 1.3085/1.3070, for the resumption of uptrend toward my next target at 1.3320/1.3350 (eventually much higher!).

The pair may have halted its pullback and triggered a recovery higher but will have to return above the 1.0842 level to trigger its broader medium term uptrend.

This if seen will open upside risk towards the 1.0900 level, representing its psycho level. Further out, the next upside target resides at the 1.1000/4 levels and ultimately, its July 27’2011 high at 1.1078. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, on continued pullbacks, the 1.0568/25 levels will be targeted where a breather may occur. However, if this fails to happen, we could see the pair aiming at 1.0444 level. Below here will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.0230 level, its Jan 13’2012 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term but faces bear threats.

“Euros failed on the topside and overnight we have seen 1.3010 target hit. All shorts have been covered…
we may well see a small bounce off these lower levels, but the market does remain looking weaker
and we view any short term strength as a opportunity to re-instate shorts.
From current 1.3010 support we could move back to 1.3175/85 without too much trouble. A move back to
here would ease the oversold scenario evident on the short term charts and provide a good opportunity to
re-establish shorts. Stops to be kept fairly tight above 1.3245.
So..as stated…we have support at 1.3010. If we lose this support and more importantly maintain below
here there is every chance we will go back and visit the lows of 1.2630/20 overall. Obviously we have
support levels prior this bigger one, and 1.2935 to 1.2880 would offer a realistic target over the next two
trading sessions.”

The aussie is trading firmly back above the 1.0700 mark on Tuesday after positive domestic data: Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose 4.2% in January vs +2.4% in the previous month. Also the New Motor Vehicle sales jumped 1.3% in January and 2.7% over the last twelve months.
The high-yielder was also propelled by positive news coming from the Greek front as well as comments from the Chinese PBoC regarding its future involvement in the euro zone.

Although the good momentum in the cross, C.Harmer, analyst at Charmer Charts, remarks that “remains looking under pressure and we do still look for weakness down to minimum target of 1.0620 possible 1.0570 over the next few sessions”.

At the same time, she added that further downside beyond 1.0570 would bring 1.0480 in the longer term.

Calendar

Risk Disclosure

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.