16 October 2017

In this report, we focus on Canadian banks P/E valuation analysis relative to the S&P/TSX Composite, bank stock 1-year return analysis under different P/E (NTM) multiple ranges, and looking at implied P/E taking into consideration each bank’s excess capital. Our main findings below are as follows: (1) group bank P/E (NTM) of 11.7x (vs. historical avg. of 10.9x) represents a 32% discount to the TSX Composite (vs. 30% historical avg.); (2) banks trade at P/E (NTM) between 11-13x over 50% of the time (since 2002) with price return over NTM lowest at 6% on average; (3) banks perform well historically when the group is trading above 13x; and (4) BNS’ relative P/E valuation is most attractive (vs. historical) taking into account their excess capital position (see Fig. 6). At Q3/F17, Scotiabank reported the highest CET 1 ratio at 11.3%.

Investment highlights

• Canadian banks trading slightly above historical average. YTD, banks stocks have outperformed the broad index with NA total returns leading at >15% (Fig. 7). The Canadian bank group (Big-6) average now trades a slight premium to its historical average (see Fig. 1). Currently, the group trades at a P/E (NTM) of 11.7x vs. its historical average of 10.9x (since 2002). During this time frame, group bank P/E’s have ranged from a low of 6.6x (during financial crisis) and high of 13.5x (prior to crisis). We believe the market is likely factoring in excess capital build, continued strong quarterly results (FQ4 upcoming), and potential future 2018 EPS upward revisions concurrent with year end results (i.e. stronger NIM and credit trends). Currently, market consensus calls for Big-6 bank EPS growth of 5% (similar to CG) in 2018E, below the S&P/TSX Composite EPS growth expectations of <10%.

• Relative group P/E valuation still trading at discount vs. broad index. In Fig. 1, we compare group bank P/E (NTM) multiples relative to the TSX Composite Index (NTM). On this basis, we find that bank stocks still look quite attractive. Currently, the forward group bank P/E of 11.7x compares to the TSX Composite of 17.3x. This represents a 32% discount, slightly favourable compared to the historical average of 30%. Based on historical trends, we note that investors should be underweight Bank stocks during crisis. Referring to Fig. 1, the three main periods during which Canadian banks traded at larger-than-average discounts related to the Tech bubble (2001-2002), financial crisis (2008-2009), and Oil price collapse (2015, 2016; WTI oil reached $26 in Feb/16).

• Canadian banks trade at P/E (NTM) between 11-13x more than half the time. Dating back to 2002, we looked at S&P/TSX Bank Index P/E (NTM) multiples that traded within four buckets or ranges. We found that the Index valuations traded within a P/E (NTM) range of 11-13x (see Fig. 3) for 54% of the time. Currently, the banks sit at the lower end of this range (11.7x). The group P/E between 9-11x, and 13-16x occurred 22%, and 21%, respectively. At the low-end (P/E of 6-9x) happened just 3% of the time, which was during the financial crisis.

• Looking at Bank performance during certain P/E trading ranges. After that, we took weekly P/E valuation data points and ran stock price returns over the next twelve months using the TSX Bank Index. Not surprisingly, we found that largest stock gains followed the financial crisis with average 1-year returns of 64%. The second highest return periods have come from when banks trade between 9-11x, compiling an average return of 13%. Using historical data, this suggests that it is best to overweight banks when the group trades below P/E (NTM) of 11x. From the group’s trading sweet spot of 11-13x; 54% of time), stock returns over the next year were lowest, averaging 6%. Interestingly, when Canadian banks trade above 13x, returns continued to be solid, averaging 11%. The historical analysis demonstrates that Canadian banks are momentum stocks and that higher valuations don’t necessarily indicate an underweight signal. By way of context, the TSX Bank Index has generated a ~8% CAGR (price return) since 2002 proving that the latter are solid long-term investments.

• Canadian banks improving capital position. Since the financial crisis, Canadian banks have continued to build excess capital. The group has increased their CET1 ratio (avg.) from 7.1% (2008) to 10.9% (F2017E). As of Q3/F17, Scotiabank enjoyed the strongest relative capital position with a CET 1 ratio of 11.3%, followed closely by NA, and BMO (11.2% each). At the low-end is now CM that accounted for the closing of PrivateBank last quarter. CM’s CET1 ratio dropped sequentially from 12.2% to 10.4%. Generally, we believe excess capital will be used for: (1) increased usage of NCIB (although still modest to overall shares outstanding); (2) dividends (we forecast group dividend growth of 5% in 2018E); (3) acquisitions (expect bolt-on acquisitions as global valuations remain high); and (4) organic growth.

• P/E implied valuation accounting for excess capital. Lastly, we take each Canadian bank's current P/E (2018E) and adjust it for the PV of excess capital. For the latter, we have assumed a CET1 floor of 10.5%, which is consistent with most bank’s comfort level. We note the regulatory minimum ratio is 8.0%. For the purpose of this analysis, we assume incremental capital will be depleted by 2020 (i.e. in 3 years) and we discount the excess capital by 10% (estimated cost of equity) to derive the PV of excess capital. The analysis is shown in Fig. 6. Our implied P/E (F2018E) for Canadian banks (adj. for excess capital) moves down on average 0.7x. This would place the group P/E at ~11x, in line (instead of slight premium) with its historical average. Under this exercise, we estimate Scotiabank's implied P/E valuation (adjusting for excess capital) trades at 10.5x (excess capital of 1.0x), a significant discount to its historical average of 11.5x (Fig. 6). We found that CM also trades at a discount, but more modest at -0.3x, while TD, BMO, NA, and RY adj. implied P/E multiples generally trade in line with their historical averages.