Roma vs Man City Champions League Betting Tips

8th December 2014

Manchester City visit Italian team Roma on Wednesday knowing that a win will very likely guarantee them qualification. The only way this couldn’t happen would be if CSKA were to beat Bayern Munich on their own ground which is unlikely to happen.

The mood was buoyant recently at City, with the last gasp victory over Bayern Munich boosting the mood and Sergio Aguero firing last year’s Premiership champions into a good run of form. However, Aguero hobbled off after only a few minutes against Everton on Saturday, with a knee ligament injury definitely keeping him out of Wednesday’s game and for who knows how long after that. This has changed the mood significantly at City and with Dzeko also only just coming back from injury, their chances of getting the victory they need have definitely taken a dip.

Roma have been no great shakes either this year in the Champions League, losing twice convincingly to Bayern and only picking up one win against CSKA. This will give City hope, although Roma were impressive at the Etihad earlier in the season and will be confident of getting what they need from the game. It’s definitely a delicately poised match, both teams lie in second in their respective leagues but have not transferred this to the Champions League in what is a tough group.

So let’s see how the bookies have priced up the match:

Roma vs Man City Outright Betting Odds

Roma 6/4 (William Hill)

Man City 2/1 (Betfred/Totesport)

Draw 13/5 (Boylesports)

Roma are rightly the favourites on their own pitch and the bookies seem to have priced this match fairly enough. If Aguero was playing then I’d have really fancied City and doubt that you’d be able to get them for 2/1, but without Aguero I’m really not sure they can pull this one off – City will also be missing the suspended Yaya Toure and look likely to be without Vincent Kompany through injury.

Man City will be missing the injured Aguero

City will basically be without the spine of their team and this could prove fatal to their chances. Much as I am patriotic and like to see the British teams doing well, I think City could struggle here and can see Roma coming through this tie so recommend a punt on them at 6/4.

First Goalscorer

Stevan Jovetic 13/2 (Bet365)

Adam Ljajic 7/1 (Bet365)

Edin Dzeko 7/1 (Coral)

Gervinho 7/1 (Paddy Power)

Francesco Totti 8/1 (Coral)

Frank Lampard 9/1 (Bet365)

David Silva 14/1 (Bet365)

There are no real standouts here in the first goalscorer market. City’s main man Aguero is out, Dzeko could make some appeal at 7/1 but there are still questions about his fitness. Roma seem to share the goals around nicely as a team so it’s pretty tough to predict as any one of about 5 players could easily pop up with a goal. Totti got a lovely goal in the first match between these sides and still remains a classy guy and is available at 9/1.

Totti scored Roma’s goal in the first game at the Etihad

Adam Ljajic has come up with a few goals recently in Serie A but again isn’t the sort of out and out goalscorer who you can confidently have a bit of money on, so I suggest leaving this market alone for this match.

Correct Score

1-1 Draw 6/1 (Betfred)

2-1 Roma 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

1-0 Roma 9/1 (Betfred)

2-1 Man City 10/1 (Coral)

1-0 Man City 11/1 (Coral)

2-2 Draw 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

0-0 Draw 14/1 (Coral)

I quite fancy Roma to win 2-1, which can be got at 8/1 with Ladbrokes. Man City are going to go at this with an attacking philosophy so I can definitely see both teams having their chances. Roma would be fairly happy with a 0-0 draw as that would see them qualify so long as Bayern beat CSKA. A score draw would bring City into the equation and will see City above Roma in the group.

I can see both teams going for the win as neither will want to overly rely on results from the other game, with Bayern having already qualified therefore possibly playing a weakened team. However this could be one of those games where both teams end up matching each other and getting a draw. It is a very tricky game to predict and the betting market is interesting.