Halfway through the season, the Maple Leafs are about where I expected them to be. Toronto has a 23-16-2 record and is on pace for 96 points. Before the season, I figured the Leafs were a 95-point team and 96 points is exactly where the projections currently have them. This is probably who they are, but it feels like they can be a lot more, especially with the talent at hand.

After a hot start in the first quarter of the season, the Leafs have floundered. This isn’t a new trend, either, and has been going on long before their recent three-game skid. They’re 9-9-2 in their last 20 games, a point pace that surpasses only seven other teams during the time frame. Their Corsi percentage has been under 50 per cent during the stretch (though it’s worth noting they are better in more dangerous areas).

With few teams chasing them in the Atlantic division, it’s still extremely likely the Leafs will make the playoffs despite their recent swoon, but what is now in...

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