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Wednesday, March 12, 2014

On Monday, a collision between The Bachelor's huge finale and Daylight Saving viewing depression produced some ugly numbers on other networks. But Tuesday saw DST plus a reduction in competition, as CBS went into repeats. So these results were much more mixed. ABC's drama department had the best night, as Agents of SHIELD (2.1) produced another double-digit surge with NCIS off the air. And at 10/9c, week three of Mind Games (0.8) had a spike from last week's 0.6 debacle (though it got a bit less ridiculous after giving back a tick in finals). As with Mixology's week two hold, this will likely be enough to buy Mind Games a bit more time.

Downward finals adjustments hurt NBC's scripted shows; About a Boy (2.0) ended up down a steep 20% from last week's timeslot premiere. (In prelims, its lead-in The Voice went from a 4.4 at 8:30 down 14% to a prelim 3.8 this week). And Growing Up Fisher (1.7), while more resilient, also ended up down multiple ticks after finals.

The Tuesday loser, as usual, was Fox, where the disastrous mix of Glee (0.9), New Girl (1.3) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.2) keeps getting even worse. All three of these shows tied season lows set in what should've been tougher situations (Glee on Thanksgiving, NG and BK-99 against the Olympics).

Cable: BET's duo of The Game (1.13) and Let's Stay Together (0.58) each dropped by over 30% from last week's premieres. TNT's Rizzoli and Isles (0.88) and Perception (0.53) also had a noteworthy night, each surging by over 30% to spring highs.

FULL TABLE:

Info

Show

Timeslot

True

A18-49

Skew

Last

LeLa

Rank

y2y

TLa

Ty2y

Agents of SHIELD

2.1

45%

+17%

+0.3

n/a

13/15

n/a

+14%

+31%

2.6

The Goldbergs

1.5

43%

+0%

+0.0

+0.3

13/17

n/a

+0%

+25%

1.5

Trophy Wife

0.9

38%

+13%

+0.1

+0.0

13/16

n/a

+13%

-18%

1.0

Mind Games

0.8

38%

+33%

+0.2

+0.1

2/3

n/a

+33%

-33%

1.0

ABC:

+14%

+4%

NCIS (R)

1.3

15%

-48%

-32%

1.6

NCIS: Los Angeles (R)

1.4

18%

-33%

-24%

1.5

Person of Interest (R)

1.1

18%

-35%

-29%

1.3

CBS:

-40%

-28%

The Voice Tue

3.5

33%

-15%

-0.6

n/a

3/3

n/a

-14%

+312%

4.2

About a Boy

2.0

34%

-20%

-0.5

-0.6

3/3

n/a

-20%

+186%

1.6

Growing Up Fisher

1.7

34%

-11%

-0.2

-0.5

3/3

n/a

-11%

+143%

1.6

Chicago Fire

1.9

33%

+0%

+0.0

-0.2

11/16

n/a

+0%

+124%

2.2

NBC:

-11%

+202%

Glee

0.9

50%

-10%

-0.1

n/a

10/11

-55%

-10%

-57%

1.1

New Girl

1.3

67%

-13%

-0.2

-0.1

17/18

n/a

-13%

-43%

1.7

Brooklyn Nine-Nine

1.2

61%

-8%

-0.1

-0.2

18/19

n/a

-8%

-50%

1.3

Fox:

-10%

-52%

The Originals

0.8

59%

+0%

+0.0

n/a

14/16

n/a

+0%

+300%

1.0

Supernatural (R)

0.5

59%

-47%

+150%

0.5

CW:

-26%

+225%

Big5:

-16%

+7%

The Game

1.13

63%

-31%

-0.51

3/3

+27%

Rizzoli and Isles

0.88

23%

+31%

+0.20

1/3

+10%

Pretty Little Liars

0.83

54%

+2%

+0.01

9/10

-19%

Justified

0.78

44%

-13%

-0.12

8/9

-14%

Cougar Town

0.67

63%

+20%

+0.11

5/10

-13%

Let's Stay Together

0.58

59%

-36%

-0.32

3/3

-16%

Perception

0.53

29%

+40%

+0.15

1/3

n/a

Twisted

0.37

47%

-8%

-0.03

5/5

+2%

KEY (click to expand)

A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

For as problematic a network as ABC, it does have some incredibly strong pieces (Modern Family, the Thursday Power Hours, Shark Tank, and Resurrection if it holds up). Now Paul Lee just needs to have a good development season and better schedule the network.

I think Summers is the best option (maybe even Summer Fridays though). I think it will do Raising Hope numbers at best on Fridays, and even that is not a given, considering that Hope was doing much better numbers than Glee currently is when it was still on Tuesdays (even accounting for year to year decline).

Glee is not doing so awful as it seems looking only at A18-49. Over last 6 episodes in W18-34 it did 2.2 ; 2.0 ; N/A to me ; 1.5 ; 1.8 ; last week 1.4. And this week it should be 1.3, maybe even 1.4. But, yes, each season Glee is dropping Idol-like, if not faster, and it could become really ugly next season.If it wasn't so young skewing, I'd say it surely goes to Friday next fall. So I thinkthey'll put it to somewhere Mon to Thu after all. Probably Wednesday or Thursday, because it seems they devoted Monday to genre dramas, and Tuesday to comedies. In any case, Glee would get the last spot left after all the other shows are slotted into preferable timeslots. I mean, that's exactly what Fox did this midseason: they deliberately scheduled Glee against The Voice, The Originals and Pretty Little Liars, in order to accommodate some other shows. First and most, Rake.Then in midseason, with 3 hours of Idol, Friday should be Glee's destination after all. Unless Fox in that moment would have even worse rated shows. Which is possible, sadly.

They need to do whatever they physically can to minimise the impact. Cut the order, dump it in the summer, dump it on FXX, dump it online, anything.

At this point they're cancelling a mid-1s procedural to make way for a de facto miniseries that could end up close to the CW median. No wonder FOX is trying to act like a cable network - it's heading for ratings like one.

I think the fact that ABC actually has strong pieces is what infuriates everyone so much. During NBC bad years it was actually hard to come up with a proper schedule for it because they didn't have enough stuff to spread around. Some might say you still have that problem with NBC and even FOX nowadays (even though no 10pm hour certainly makes it look a whole lot better in terms of holes needing to be filled up). But ABC almost any of us can make better schedules and pick shows that are not guaranteed flops right away. I mean, how come the internet collectively called the certain cancellation of Mind Games, Lucky 7, Killer Women, Betrayal and Super Fun Night and Paul Lee didn't? How come we all understood that split seasons was the way to go last year yet he threw OUAT and Revenge against awards season? How come he gves new shows at 10pm sub 1 comedy lead-ins? How come in 5 years there hasn't been a single freshman family comedy slotted in the fall after MF? How come DWTS is still up against the voice? How come he thinks it's a good idea to air the Wednesday half hour comedies after repeats every year? How come it was a good idea to replace MC with TN on Fridays? How come Shield and the comedies are not swapped? How come he brings back shows after hiatuses for randoms one episodes only to put them in hiatuses again? That's what so infuriating about ABC. Not that the other networks don't have their fair share of crimes, but ABC is by far the worst IMO.