Arizona’s move today to defy Republican Party rules and set the state’s GOP presidential primary before March 6 could push Iowa to reschedule its first-in-the-nation caucuses, Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said this evening.

Strawn. (Andrea Melendez/The Register)

“It’s too early to assess the impact,” Strawn said. “The question remains whether that will force other states to move up and that would then bump us forward. We don’t know the answer to that yet.”

The Iowa caucuses are now scheduled for Feb. 6.

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer today signed a proclamation that sets Feb. 28 as the date for the state’s GOP presidential primary.

That could create a domino-like reaction for early nominating voting states like Iowa, prompting them to reset their calendars to even earlier dates.

The Republican National Committee has designated four early voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Other states that hold a primary or caucus before March 6 will be penalized. States could lose half their delegates and guest passes to the 2012 national convention in Tampa.

South Carolina is now scheduled to hold its primary on Feb. 28, but it is unclear whether the Palmetto State is willing to share the date with Arizona.

It’s also unclear what actions the Republican National Committee may ultimately take against states that defy the March 6 rule or what date other states – like Florida – may ultimately set for their primaries or caucuses, Strawn noted.

Brewer had been thinking about scheduling the GOP primary for January, but backed away after the RNC tentatively agreed to schedule a presidential debate in Arizona. At the time, she had left open the possibility of scheduling the primary for sometime after Jan. 31 but before Feb. 28.

“Arizona will be a player in determining our nation’s next president,”

Brewer last year signed into law the nation's toughest legislation against illegal, a sweeping measure which President Barack Obama said could violate people's civil rights. (AP Photo/The Arizona Republic, David Wallace)

Brewer said in a statement shortly after signing today’s proclamation. “Over the next 14 months, the candidates would be wise to meet with our voters and become familiar with our issues. Many of these issues – whether illegal immigration, the housing crisis or Medicaid reform – have national implications.”

States have tried for years to jump ahead of Iowa’s first-in-the nation caucuses and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary. Proponents of the current process nod to tradition and say that starting with smaller states allows grass-roots candidates to have a shot at the presidency.

The Republican National Committee’s Rules Committee voted last month to delay action on tougher penalties against states that try to jump ahead. The measure would have removed VIP passes and desirable hotel accommodations from states like Arizona, Florida and Michigan that have threatened to move their presidential nominating votes before March 6.

Republican National Committee member Steve Scheffler of Iowa is on the rules committee and said part of the reason for the delay in increasing penalties is that some members weren’t certain of the ramifications such actions could bring.

Scheffler said Monday night that he believes Iowa’s 2012 caucus date will be moved.

“I can’t imagine that it will be as late as Feb. 6,” Scheffler said.

He continued, comparing the situation to a game of chess: “We’re going to be first regardless. They might as well stop playing games.”

Iowa Democrats have teamed with Republicans on the issue. Both have vowed to do whatever it takes to keep Iowa the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state.

Various Republican and state deadlines to set state presidential nominating dates kick in on Oct. 1. That’s likely around the time when Iowa officials will have a better idea if the Feb. 6 caucus date will stick, Strawn said tonight.