MAY SAN JUAN, PUERTO Rico

Transcripción

1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROCEEDINGS OF CONFERENCE XXXVI A HORKSHOP ON "ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND RISK IN PUERTO RICO" MAY SAN JUAN, PUERTO Rico Open-File Report This report is preliminary and has not been edited or reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey publication standards and stratigraphic nomenclature. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the United States Government. Any use of tra names and tramarks in this publication is for scriptive purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia 1987

2 Knowledge Utilization Series Reports To Date Open File Proceedings of the Symposium on the New Madrid Seismic Zone Open File Primer on Improving the State of Earthquake Hazards Mitigation and Preparedness Open File A Workshop on "Probabilistic Earthquake Hazards Assessments" Open File A Workshop on "Assessment of Geologic Hazards and Risk in Puerto Rico" For Orring Information Contact: U.S. Geological Survey Books and Open-file Reports Services Section Feral Center, Building 41 Box Denver, Colorado 80225

3 FOREWORD RAISING PUBLIC AWARENESS CONCERNING GEOLOGIC RISKS Opening remarks of the Honorable Alejandro Santiago-Nieves, Secretary of the Department of Natural Resources of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, at the opening session of the Third Annual Workshop on Geologic Hazards in Puerto Rico, held at the Caribe Hilt on Hotel, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Wednesday 14 May It is my privilege to welcome the participants in this annual workshop once again in the name of the Honorable Rafael Hernanz Colon, Governor of Puerto Rico. The Governor would like you to know that he continues to support the several programs related to mitigation of natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and landslis. I know that he would have liked to welcome you personally, but there are many competing mands for his time, and he begs to be excused this morning. In view of our experiences during the past year, the Governor is very conscious of the need for this kind of conference to help raise the awareness of the people of Puerto Rico to the ever present possibility of natural disasters. He has directed that all the agencies involved with planning and emergency preparedness join forces to that end. I want to express my gratitu to Dr. Walter Hays of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for his effort in arranging this conference, and to the members of the Steering Committee, including the Feral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the University of Puerto Rico, and the staff of my Department of Natural Resources. The year 1985 witnessed a number of major natural disasters, which served to remind us of the fact that even when they occur at a great distance from urban centers, such events can have severe impacts on human settlements. First, there was an earthquake in Chile in March. In May, Puerto Rico suffered severe floods. In September, a seismic event on the west coast of Mexico generated tremendous damage in the metropolis over 200 miles away. In October, unusually heavy rains were responsible for a rocksli in Ponce that claimed almost 100 lives. In November, a volcanic eruption in Colombia caused floods and mudflows that took several thousand lives. The people of Puerto Rico respond with generous assistance to all those events. After the Mameyes rocksli and other events associated with the extra ordinary rainfall of the first week in October, we built upon our previous experiences to assure that the FEMA's Regional Interagency Hazard Mitigation Report would involve the major local agencies as well as Feral representatives. The Planning Board and the Department of Natural Resources became directly involved in that effort, particularly in the working sessions of the Interagency group that formulated the statement of problems and recommendations. As a result, I believe that the report and it recommendations will produce major benefits for Puerto Rico and its people. The major element, of course, was the impetus to unrtake the landsli inventory that was recommend by last year's geologic risk workshop. After sending several specialists to Puerto Rico to observe the nature and extent of landsli activity, the USGS has assigned funds for this important activity,

4 and the Department of Natural Resources as submitted a proposal for the work that is required to produce an island-wi inventory of landsli areas and of areas that may be susceptible to future landsliding. The efforts will require at least five years to complete, even with the cooperation of the University of Puerto Rico. Another result of the FEMA Interagency Hazard Mitigation Report has been a revision of the Puerto Rico Flood Hazard Mitigation Plan which was first prepared in This has required the modification of our Coastal Zone Management Program task related to coastal hazards. The island-wi hazard mitigation plan has now been modified in accordance with the FEMA report, so that they will be come appendages to the global plan, with greater tail for each affected area. The experience we have obtained from these exercises has spurred us to expand our public education program. This year, the five weeks from the beginning of May to the first week in June have been dicated to education concerned with environmental quality, health, and natural resources. As you can observe in the program available for distribution, we are trying to combine several aspects of public education in this activity, including both this conference on geological hazards and our conference on hurricane preparedness during the first week in June. Dr. Neil Frank, the Director of the National Hurricane Center, will be the principal speaker at the conference on June 5, I extend a cordial invitation to all of you to attend that important event. One of my primary concerns is how to promote public awareness of the potential natural hazards and what each individual and family can do, at little or no expense, to protect lives and property. This is not a task for a single agency. Every agency of the Government has a role to play in that effort. In addition, we are reaching out to the private sector, for every businessman and plant manager has an interest in the matter, both to protect corporate property and the health and safety of employees and to assure that the minds of employees are relieved of concern about their homes and families while they are at work. We will be reaching out to insurance companies, as well as to the Chamber of Commerce and the Manufacturers' Association, both to provi them with vital information and to enlist their assistance and sponsorship in the effort to reach all sectors of the population. I hope your conference will be successful and look forward to my appearance on Friday with the Honorable Patria Custodio, Chairman of the Planning Board. 11

8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page BACKGROUND INFORMATION AND CONCLUSIONS OF THE WORKSHOP Background and Summary of the Workshop on "Assessment of Geologic Hazards and Risk in Puerto Rico" by Walter Hays and Paula Gori Introduct ion... Issues Associated with the Implementation of Loss-Reduction Measures in Puerto Rico... The 19 September 1985 Mexico Earthquake... The 10 October 1986 San Salvador Earthquake... Description of Earthquake Hazards that could occur in the Puerto Rico area... Elements Involved in an Assessment of the Potential Risk from Earthquakes in the Puerto Rico Area... Workshop Procedures... Plenary Sessions and Discussion Group Seminars... Acknowledgments... Refe rences Next Steps - The Role of the Department of Natural Resources by Alejandro Santiago Nieves Los Siguientes Pasos - El Rol Del Departamento Recursos Naturales by Alejandro Santiago Nieves FUNDAMENTAL KNOWLEDGE ON GEOLOGIC HAZARDS IN PUERTO RICO Historic Earthquakes and the Earthquake Hazard of Puerto Rico by William R. McCann Evaluating Earthquake Recurrence in the Northeastern Caribbean: Lessons from the 1985 Mexico Earthquake and Areas of Future Research in Puerto Rico by David Schwartz Earthquake Vulnerability Study for the Metropolitan Area of San Juan, Puerto Rico by Jose Molinelli Foro Sobre La Vulnerabilidad Sismica Del Area Metropolitana De San Juan by Rafael Jimenez, James Joyce, Samuel Diaz, Pedro Jimenez, Alejandro Soto, Hermenegildo Ortiz, and Ruth Carreras Forum on Puerto Rico Vulnerability Study By Rafael Jimenez-Perez

12 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROCEEDINGS OF CONFERENCE XXXVI A WORKSHOP ON "ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND RISK IN PUERTO RICO" May 14-16, 1986 San Juan, Puerto Rico Sponsored by: Department of Natural Resources, Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Planning Board Puerto Rico College of Engineers Puerto Rico Geological Survey Feral Emergency Management Agency U.S. Geological Survey EDITORS Walter W. Hays and Paula L. Gori U.S. Geological Survey Reston, Virginia Open-File Report Compiled by Carla Kitzmiller This report is preliminary and has not been edited or reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey publication standards and stratigraphic nomenclature. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the United States Government. Any use of tra names and tramarks in this publication is for scriptive purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia

13 PREFACE Puerto Ricans face the threat of life, injuries, and social and economic impacts from the recurrence of a large, damaging earthquake such as the one that occurred on October 11, 1918, near Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. In the 69 years since that earthquake, the population nsity and the building wealth exposed to the earthquake threat have increased sharply; whereas, applications of earthquake hazards mitigation and preparedness strategies have lagged behind the accumulated knowledge on earthquake hazards. The goal of this publication, a permanent record of the third workshop held in 1986 on earthquake and geologic hazards in the Puerto Rico area, is to encourage the implementation of loss-reduction measures by Puerto Ricans. This publication, the fifth in the knowledge utilization series of the U.S. Geological Survey, contains high-quality information that can be applied in many different ways in Puerto Rico including: o o o o o o Advocacy for public policy to al with geologic and earthquake hazards in the context of other natural and man-ma and technological hazards. Response planning. Vulnerability studies. Education and training programs to increase hazard awareness and preparedness. Hazard mitigation strategies (for example, seismic provisions for a morn building co, seismic microzonation, land-use plans, criteria for sign, construction, and review of critical facilities including community lifeline systems, and guilines for retrofit and strengthening of existing structures and facilities). Agendas for future research to close gaps in knowledge that presently limit applications. We commend Puerto Rico for its achievements. We believe that Puerto Ricans are now in a strong position and are capable of carrying out all of these applications and others during the next 5-10 years. Richard Krimm Feral Emergency Management Agency Walter Hays U.S. Geological Survey

14 BACKGROUND AND SUMMARY FOR WORKSHOP ON "ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND RISK IN PUERTO RICO" by Walter W. Hays and Paula L. Gori U.S. Geological Survey Res ton, Virginia INTRODUCTION Seventy earth scientists, engineers, planners, emergency management specialists, and public officials participated in a 2-day workshop on "Assessment of Geologic Hazards and Risk in Puerto Rico." The workshop, convened unr the auspices of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), was held in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on May 14-16, The sponsors of the workshop were the Puerto Rico Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the Puerto Rico Planning Board, Puerto Rico College of Engineers, Puerto Rico Geological Survey, the Feral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This workshop was the third in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the thirtysixth in a series of workshops and conferences throughout the Nation that the USGS has sponsored since 1977, usually in cooperation with FEMA, the lead agency in the NEHRP. The two prior workshops in Puerto Rico were held in April 1984 and May Each past workshop sponsored by USGS and FEMA had two general goals: 1) bringing together participants having experience in the production and use of knowledge of the earthquake hazards of ground shaking, surface fault rupture, earthquake-induced ground failure, regional tectonic formation, and where applicable, tsunamis and seiches, and 2) strengthening new and ongoing activities in the State, Commonwealth, or region to mitigate losses from earthquake hazards. This workshop had the same general goals as in the past, but it also had new goals: 1) To build on the plans, information and research networks and support systems, and high levels of knowledge, concern, and commitment veloped in 1985 as a consequence of the seminar at Mayaguez on "Fundamentals of Earthquake Engineering" (convened by Earthquake Engineering Research Institute with sponsorship by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the Department of State) and the workshop on "Reducting Potential Losses from Earthquake Hazards" (convened by USGS/FEMA/DNR) at Dorado. 2) To disseminate information and preliminary research results rived from the September 1985 Mexico earthquake, emphasizing the relevant facts gathered by the Puerto Rican investigative team for incorporation into Puerto Rico's earthquake preparedness program. 3) To disseminate information on the October 1985 Mameyes, Puerto Rico, landsli disaster, emphasizing the facts that can motivate generic research on the landsli process and be used to improve emergency response planning.

15 4) To distill the technical and societal lessons learned from the 1985 Mexico earthquake and the 1985 Mameyes landsli disaster and to transfer and apply these lessons in planning, research, mitigation, response, and recovery programs currently unrway in Puerto Rico. 5) To provi information for both the technical expert and the nontechnical cisionmaker planner implementor. 6) To strengthen the ad hoc Puerto Rican "working groups" in earthquake engineering, formed in 1984, as credible resources in Puerto Rico to foster implementation of loss-reduction measures for all types of geologic hazards. ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LOSS-REDUCTION MEASURES IN PUERTO RICO Information and experience gained by USGS, FEMA, National Science Foundation, and National Bureau of Standards since 1977 in the NEHRP have shown that the implementation process is as complex as any research study (Figure 1). In every earthquake-prone region of the Nation, including Puerto Rico, two principal issues impe implementation. They are: SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL LOCATION OF STRUCTURE EXPOSURE MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION RESISTANCE TO LATERAL FORCES VULNERABILITY MODEL )' EXPERIENCE AND RESEARCH INCORPORATE EW KNOWLEDG ASSESSMENT OF RISK IMPLEMENTATION OF LOSS-REDUCTION MEASURES DAMAGE ALGORITHM INSPECTION AND REGULATION Figure 2. Schematic illustration of the critical elements of th earthquakehazards-reduction implementation process. The flow is from top to bottom. Earthquake experience seems to be need to drive the process of implementation in almost every community.

16 Do the people have the will to implement loss-reduction measures for earthquakes without the occurrence of a major earthquake? How much more will loss-reduction measures for earthquakes cost and will the required money come from reprogramming or from new sources? Experience since 1977 in the NEHRP has shown that implementation of lossreduction measures tends to happen when 5 critical interrelated elements are present (Figure 2). Each element is scribed below. Knowledge Utilization Pyramid Body of Technical Knowledge/ Trained, Concerned, and Committed People Coordinated Programs Earthquake Experience Implementation^^ of Loss Reduction T Measures Figure 2. Schematic illustration of the critical elements of the earthquake hazards-reduction implementtion process. The flow is from top to bottom. Earthquake experience seems to be need to drive the process of implementation in almost every community.

17 Element 1: Existence of a Technical Data Base Effective implementation in Puerto Rico requires explicit knowledge of the nature and extent of the earthquake hazards of ground shaking, surface fault rupture, earthquakeinduced ground failure, and regional tectonic formation in each urban area (Figure 3). The quantity and quality of the geologic, seismological, engineering seismology, and engineering data bases are the two most important factors that facilitate making assessments of the earthquake hazards and risk in a region and vising and implementing measures that will reduce potential losses from future earthquakes. COMMUNITY SEISMIC RISK MATRIX URBAN CELL BUILDING CODE ENFORCEMENT STRUCTURAL FAILURE FOUNDATION FAILURE DIFFERENTIAL SETTLEMENT FAULT RUPTURE ZONING ORDINANCE ENFORCEMENT LIQUEFACTION LAND SUBSIDENCE HOUSING TRANSPORTATION TSUNAMI AND SEICHE INDUSTRIAL FLOOD (DAM BREAK) PUBLIC/COMMUNITY FACILITIES Figure 3. Schematic illustration of a community facing potential losses from the earthquake hazards of ground shaking, surface fault rupture, earthquake-induced ground failure, and regional tectonic formation. Every community has the capability to implement a wi range of lossreduction measures to minimize the potential impacts. Decisionmakers in the community must ci which loss-reduction measures are most cost effective and take the lead in implementing them before the damaging event occurs. Professionals have a major role in providing credible information and in vising a wi range of loss-reduction measures for the cisionmaker to select from. Cost is the main issue.

18 Using the finition that an issue is fined as a question for which expert opinion is divid between "yes" and "no," the critical issues of implementation that are directly related to the technical data bases in Puerto Rico are: Can the existing data be utilized to foster implementation of lossreduction measures or must the data be translated, extrapolated, or augmented? Are enough data available for implementation of loss-reduction measures? Are the data at the right scale? Can the data be extrapolated beyond the limitations of the technical data bases to address specific requirements of users in a reasonable, yet conservative manner, that provis an aquate margin of safety? Technical data are required on three scales: global (map scale of about 1:7,500,000 or larger) to give the "big picture" of the inter- and intraplate forces. (map scale of about 1:250,000 or larger) to fine the physical parameters and their range of values that provi a framework of unrstanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of earthquake hazards in a region. local (map scale of about 1:24,000 or smaller) to termine the physical parameters and their range of values that control the local earthquakeresistant sign requirements. Site-specific sign requirements are not satisfied by this scale; they are based on site-specific data. The available data must be integrated and analyzed, quantifying uncertainty as appropriate, to obtain explicit answers to the questions: Whe re have earthquakes occurred in the past? now? Where are they occurring How big in terms of epicentral intensity and/or magnitu were the past earthquakes? How big can future earthquakes be? Has the maximum magnitu earthquake ever occurred? What physical effects (hazards) have past earthquakes caused? What was their extent spatially and temporally? What was their level of severity? What were the causative mechanisms for each earthquake? Each hazard? How often (on the average) do earthquakes of a given magnitu (or epicentral intensity) occur? How often on the average, does ground shaking of a certain level occur? What are the viable options for mitigating the earthquake hazards expected to occur in the region in a 50-year exposure time (the useful life of ordinary buildings).

19 Element 2: Trained, Concerned, and Committed People Trained, concerned, and committed people are required in Puerto Rico to analyze the technical data bases, to extrapolate beyond the limits of the data, and to translate the basic data into maps and other products so that practical and reasonable lossreduction measures can be vised. The critical issues of implementation that are directly related to Puerto Ricans are: Is appropriate training available to transfer the state-of-the-art and the state-of-practice to professionals? Can people and cisionmakers who have never experienced a damaging earthquake be motivated to have increased concern about earthquakes and their effects? Can people who have been uncommitted in the past with respect to implementation of loss-reduction measures be transformed into people who are committed to providing learship for changing the "status quo" of implementation? The Puerto Ricans who make the implementation process happen must al with a wi range of geologic, seismological, and engineering seismology data and produce credible, practical loss-reduction measures. To succeed, they must know that there are differences in the perspectives of scientists/engineers and cisionmakers (scribed in Table 1) and have experience in minimizing these differences. Table I Differences in the perspectives of scientists/engineers and cisionmakers (from Szanton, 1981). Attributes Perspectives Scientists/Engineers Ultimate objective Time horizon Focus Respect of Peers Long Internal logic of the problem problem Mo of thought Inductive, generic Most valued outcome Original insight Mo of expression Abstruse, qualified Preferred form of Multiple possibilities with conclusion uncertainties emphasized submerged Decisionmakers Approval of electorate Short External logic of the Deductive, particular Reliable solution Simple, absolute One "best" solution with uncertainties Element 3: Programs The data, information, and people provi the resource base for programs in Puerto Rico such as: 1) research studies, 2) the assessment of earthquake hazards, vulnerability, and risk for specific urban areas, 3) a seismic safety organization, 4) mitigation and preparedness actions, 5) and the implementation of new and improved loss-reduction measures. The success of each program pends on: how well it is focused, how well it is integrated, and how 105

20 well it is coordinated between the various disciplines and agencies. The critical issues of implementation that are directly associated with programs in Puerto Rico are: Do the expected benefits justify the cost and the anguish associated with reallocation of resources? Are the technological, societal, and political consirations appropriately balanced? Does the program have a finite ending point; if not, should it? end point be negotiated before the program begins? Can the Element 4; A Damaging Earthquake A damaging earthquake always provis the best opportunity to acquire unique geologic, seismological, engineering, and social science information and to foster implementation of specific loss-reduction measures in a community. The critical issues of implementation that are directly related to the occurrence of a damaging earthquake in Puerto Rico are: Does the earthquake provi relevant information for stimulating earthquake preparedness in Puerto Rican communities? Can useful "lessons" be extracted from the earthquake experience and applied in Puerto Rico? The following types of investigations are typically conducted after a damaging earthquake and provi a rapid way of collecting new data and knowledge (Hays, 1986). Geologic studies field investigations to termine the nature, gree, and spatial distribution of surface faulting, regional tectonic formation, landslis, liquefaction, and wave inundation from seiches and tsunamis. Seismological studies measurement programs using arrays of portable seismographs to locate earthquakes comprising the aftershock sequence, to fine the spatial extent of the fault rupture zone and its temporal changes, and to termine the focal mechanisms of the earthquake. Engineering Seismology Studies measurement programs using arrays portable strong motion accelerographs and broad band seismographs the characteristics of strong ground motion at various epicentral unrlain by various soil-rock columns, using both the main shock aftershock sequence. of to measure locations and the Engineering Studies Investigations on a building-by-building scale to termine the nature, gree, and spatial distribution of damage to a wi range of structures, including: low-, medium-, and high-rise buildings, lifelines, and critical facilities. Societal Studies Investigations to termine how the populace reacts before, during, and after an earthquake and to vise ways the new technical information can be transformed into public policy and new or improved lossreduction measures. IDS

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