Fox News' Tucker Carlson Proves A Partisan Prime Time Pays

The first week of 2017 saw a disturbance in the cable news world, as Fox News star Megyn Kelly left the network for a daytime show on NBC. The cable giant--which just celebrated 15 years as the number one network in cable news--scrambled to find a replacement with comparable appeal.

The network went with Tucker Carlson, a conservative pundit who has hosted Tucker Carlson Tonight since November, cofounded right-skewing website The Daily Caller and competed on Dancing with the Stars. The choice pointed Fox News in a decidedly more conservative direction, as Carlson brings little of Kelly’s centrist spin.

“Viewers have overwhelmingly responded to the show, and we look forward to him being a part of Fox News’ powerful prime-time lineup,” Rupert Murdoch said in a release when the network announced that Tucker Carlson Tonight would move to the choice 9 p.m. slot.

The response has been overwhelming indeed: Carlson’s first month averaged 3.7 million viewers, with 784,000 of those in the lucrative 25-54 demographic, according to data from Nielsen Media Research. That is a 50% increase in viewers and 92% increase in the demo over Kelly’s January 2016 average. Compared to cable news competition from MSNBC and CNN, Carlson remains impressive: At 9 p.m., MSNBC’s The Rachel MaddowShow and CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 averaged 1.8 and 1.6 million viewers, respectively, for January.

Looking at Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Tumblr, YouTube and search volume, social engagement around Carlson has more than tripled in 2017 compared to social engagement surrounding his program’s premiere in November 2016, according to research by data and analytics firm ListenFirst.

While this flood of viewers and social activity could have to do with the intrigue of a new host, it also likely reflects the success of Fox’s plan to double down on the opinion-based programming that helped it rise to the top. Carlson’s show tends to pit a guest against Carlson (in “spirited debate”), unlike the more traditional news format of The Kelly File, in which Kelly served as a relatively objective anchor.

“Because of the recent election, people may have retreated to their corners, and the gladiatorial feeling of the program is appealing to a certain segment of the audience,” says Kevin O’Neill, an advertising professor at Syracuse University’s Newhouse School.

The social numbers reflect the appeal of the show's one-on-one format. "Throughout 2017, Carlson has seen the highest engagement around viral Facebook videos where he challenges various leaders opposing Trump’s policy and/or those surrounded in political controversy," says ListenFirst co-CEO and cofounder Jason Klein.

The network likely hopes Carlson will keep up his high ratings until the Upfronts this spring, resulting in a draw (along with the high-rating Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity) for advertisers.

“There is no question that Fox is looking for another tentpole,” O’Neill says. “Of course O’Reilly is one, and this has got to be very gratifying to them.”

Fox News’ unbeatable ratings have already made it an almost invaluable asset to its parent company, 21st Century Fox. According to the most recent numbers available (2015’s), the network was projected to clock $2.3 billion in revenue. In terms of profit, this translates into over $1 billion annually.

On top of this monetary value, Fox News' consistently large audience (in 2016, it attracted an average of 2.475 million viewers during prime time, and just this month, it marked 15 years as the number one cable news network) allows its parent company to use it as a pawn when negotiating with cable providers. If a distributor wants Fox News, it must also include other 21st Century Fox networks, such as National Geographic and Fox Regional Sports Networks.

But with Carlson solidifying the network’s prime-time dedication to opinion-based news, perhaps the network is more of a king than a pawn.

I am a reporter at Forbes following the money--the big money. That means covering everything from media moguls to the most successful women entrepreneurs, most of whom are members of the billionaires club. Before moving to the wealth team, I worked on the media and entertain...