Some Lebanon County voters don't know their candidates -- yet

Lebanon County will be divided into the 6th Congressional District and the 15th Congressional District.

Fifteen people enjoying their lunch hour shopping at the Lebanon Valley Mall.

With less than six weeks until Election Day, one would think that at least one of these local residents would know what congressional district he or she lives in.

But that was not the case in a very unscientific poll conducted last week at the mall - which, incidentally, is in the 15th District.

Although unscientific and anonymous, the respondents represented a fair cross-section of Lebanon County's population. They were young, old and in between, males and females of different races and ethnicity, and most said they were registered to vote.

Yet not one knew whether they lived in the 6th or 15th congressional district - the county's two new districts that replaced the 17th District as a result of redistricting required after the 2010 U.

Charlie Dent

S. Census.

Credit can go to one gentleman, a retired steelworker from Campbelltown who knew he lived in the 15th District, but only after given a hint that it was either the 6th or the 15th.

The man, however, could not name the candidates running for the seat.

They would be Democrat Rick Daugherty, a senior center director, and Republican incumbent Charlie Dent. Both reside in Lehigh County.

Their counterparts in the 6th District are Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach of Chester County and Democratic challenger Manan Trivedi of Berks County.

While they may not be household names today, it's a safe bet that by Election Day on Nov. 6, voters will be much more familiar with the candidates.

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The fact the candidates are relative unknowns this close to the election should not come as a surprise, say the political analysts who actually conduct scientific polls.

"That's not at all uncommon for them not to be known yet," said Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster and director of its Center for Politics and Public Affairs. "But that will change as we begin seeing more advertising leading up to Election Day.

Rick Daugherty

"

Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, agrees with Madonna and said he believes it's difficult for the average citizen to know where the boundaries are in a newly divided area, such as Lebanon County.

"The lines of congressional districts are meaningless to people," he said. "Especially when they are changed and arbitrary, like this latest redistricting. Unless they are really interested in politics, it is very unlikely people will know what district they are in now."

While geographically arbitrary, the district lines are not politically arbitrary.

As Democrats have done in the past when they held the majority, the Republican-controlled state legislature drew the boundaries of most districts to increase the likelihood of GOP victories, including the 15th and 6th districts.

Jim Gerlach

"Those districts were gerrymandered to really favor the Republicans," Madonna said. "Gerlach is in a better (more Republican) district than he was in 2004 when he won a narrow victory, and in 2008, when he won while Obama was sweeping the state by eight points. And Dent's district is even more Republican than Gerlach's."

But there is a risk that accompanies redistricting for incumbents like Gerlach and Dent. Because they extend into new territory, they are unknowns to about half of their potential new constituents.

"Redistricting poses challenges and opportunities for candidates running in those new areas," Borick explained. "For example, Charlie Dent is about as established a political figure as you will find in the Lehigh Valley.

Manan Trivedi

But he is absolutely an unknown quantity in the 15th District that spreads toward (Lebanon County)."

And that leads back to the importance of advertising. Although the airwaves have not been inundated with campaign ads, the first commercials started airing this month.

Trivedi, a physician, was the first to run an ad on Sept. 4, and Gerlach followed with one of his own about two weeks later.

The men faced each other in 2010 with Gerlach winning by a comfortable 14-point margin.

They say familiarity breeds contempt, and it would appear to be the case in this race, where the tone of the campaign has been negative early and often.

Both of their 30-second spots were attack ads.

Trivedi's ad touts his experience as a battlefield physician in the Iraq War, but it knocks Gerlach for voting to increase his pension as a state senator and accuses him of wanting to gut Medicare.

While plugging his efforts to create jobs, Gerlach took off the gloves in his commercial by criticizing Trivedi for his support of stimulus bills that the ad claims sent jobs to China.

Both candidates' campaigns justified the tough approach taken in trying to define their opponent to voters.

"Congressman Gerlach's record, and now his ad, continue to miss the mark here in Pennsylvania," said Trivedi spokesman Daren Berringer. "He has been a part of the go-along to get-along crowd within this Republican Congress for so long that he fails to remember his own agenda to slash Medicare for seniors, remove access to health care for women and send millions of dollars in tax breaks to corporations who outsource jobs overseas."

Trivedi is a supporter of the president's policies who threw the first punch, countered Gerlach's senior adviser, Vince Galko.

"Our television spot highlights Congressman Gerlach's leadership on job creation and farmland preservation," he said. "To be clear, our opponent chose to air the first attack ads of this campaign. We believe it is our obligation to respond to his false ads. Our ads draw a contrast between Jim Gerlach's plan to restore jobs and spur the economy and our opponent's record of supporting more government stimulus programs, which have created more jobs overseas than in Pennsylvania."

Although Gerlach's internal polls have him with a comfortable lead, and he enjoys a substantial financial advantage, Trivedi has raised enough funds to make the advertising battle competitive.

That fact, plus the newcomer status they share in much of the newly drawn district, makes the candidates' hard-edge strategies understandable, Borick said.

"I think Gerlach wants to make sure this is a race he controls. So he is going hard at Trivedi," he said. "But Trivedi has a decent amount of resources to hit back. ... In a district like the 6th, which is a moderate district in terms of voter make up, he is trying to identify Gerlach with the new, more extreme parts of the Republican Party."

Circumstances are different in the Daugherty-Dent race, where Daugherty does not have the financial resources to compete with Dent. The campaigns have been relatively quiet to this point.

Daugherty was not concerned by an apparent lack of voter recognition at this point because, he said, voters are just starting to pay attention.

He hopes that news coverage and events like a televised debate in Allentown and the League of Women Voters forum scheduled on Oct. 29 in Lebanon will be enough to reach voters.

It worked in the primary campaign, when he defeated a better-funded opponent, he said.

"My only goal is for people to know where I am on the issues and for them to be able to decide, because there is a real difference between us," he said. "And I think we can do that with the media coverage, and things like the forums and Voters Guide."

Dent's campaign manager, Shawn Millan, agreed that voters have yet to focus on the campaign and was unfazed to learn that a small sample of local voters were essentially clueless about the candidates.

Dent has run one televised ad in the county, which quoted Daugherty as saying the country's deficit is a revenue problem, not a spending problem.

It's been said that there is no such thing as bad publicity. So while Dent's ad was uncomplimentary to him, it did get Daugherty's face and name in front voters.

Dent has plenty of time to introduce himself to 15th District residents and will do so soon by sending out mailers that explain his accomplishments and stance on the issues, Millan said.

Direct mailing is more productive than TV and radio ads, Millan said, because they are targeted to reach likely voters. Phone calls will also be part of the strategy, he said.

"It is just a matter of timing for campaigns, based on their resources," Millan said. "You don't want your message lost in the clutter, but you also don't want to get started too early."

What district do you live in?

As a result of the congressional redistricting following the 2010 U.S. Census, Lebanon County was moved out of the 17th District and divided into the 6th and 15th districts. Representatives for these districts will be elected on Nov. 6.

The 6th Congressional District will represent wards 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9 in Lebanon; the boroughs of Cornwall, Myerstown and Richland; the townships of Heidelberg, Jackson, Millcreek, South Lebanon and West Cornwall; and these five addresses in North Lebanon Township District East - 717, 719 and 723 E. Lehman St., and 711 and 715 E. Cumberland St.

The 15th Congressional District will represent wards 3 (Stevens Tower precinct) and 6 (St. Benedict's Church precinct) in Lebanon; the boroughs of Cleona, Jonestown, Mt. Gretna and Palmyra; and the townships of Annville, Bethel, Cold Spring, East Hanover, North Annville, North Cornwall, North Londonderry, South Annville, South Londonderry, Swatara, Union, West Lebanon, and North Lebanon Township with the exception of the five houses in the 6th District.