The first disasterA frost and freeze disaster in March and April included all but Keweenaw County, according to Deacon.

“Back in the spring and early summer with the fruit growers, people talked about this being as bad as in the 1940s,” Deacon said.

Those frost events were some of the most damaging the Michigan industry has seen in last 50 years, according to Ken Nye, Michigan Farm Bureau horticultural specialist.

With the mild winter and rapid and consistent warm-up, crops were so advanced they were especially vulnerable to frost. Along the west side of the state where most of the fruit is, by the end of April hardly any fruit but blueberries was left.

“For apples and cherries, most growers had less than 10 percent of their crop. Not everybody, but most,” Nye said.

That does not mean that next year there won’t be a good crop, he added. But this year it spells fewer apples during Michigan’s traditional fall apple-picking season.

The frost-freeze also decimated peaches, pears and juice grapes, especially in the southwest corner of the state. However, wine grapes are “doing really well,” said Jeremy Nagel, media relations specialist for Michigan Farm Bureau. It depends on the crop, and where it in the state it was planted.

The second disasterAnd then there’s the drought. Michigan producers haven’t seen one like it since 1988.

“The drought over the summer is mostly about corn, soybeans and hay,” Nagel said.

But even despite this summer’s heat disaster designation across the state, not everyone was impacted equally. As with the frost-freeze, it depends not only on the crop, but where in the state it was planted.

“There are crops to harvest in Michigan, and that puts us in a better position than others in other states,” Deacon said. “Some look good, some not. Sometimes we won’t know until the fall harvest, like with corn and soybeans. The designation allows farmers to know that the government assumes they’ve been impacted, and they can start working with the USDA Farm Service Agency at the local level to get loans, to buy necessities like feed for their livestock.

Corn and soybeans planted in the spring “got off to a great start” compared with last year’s beginning with too much rain, said Bob Boehm, head of the Michigan Farm Bureau Commodity and Marketing Department. There was good germination. But then, during pollination, the drought and high temperatures hit, which caused “a multitude of challenges.”

“Every one of those kernels takes a grain of pollen. When the kernel doesn’t develop, when it’s not pollinated to the tip, it got too hot or got interrupted in the pollination process,” said Boehm. “The ears of corn that didn’t pollinate are sparsely populated.”

The worst hit areas were in the southwest corner of the state, on the northern edge of a broader Midwest drought. From about I-96 north, which had intermittent rains combined with unusual heat, is “not too bad,” Boehm said. The central to northern part of the state is “looking optimal.” Between I-96 and I-94, there are “pockets of worse.” South of I-94 Boehm simply pronounced “worse.” But those are just guidelines.

“There are south pockets here and there that received rain, and north pockets that didn’t,” he added.

For the soybean crop, the critical time is later than the corn crop.

“A lot of folks feel the rain and cooler times in the past few weeks helped the crops,” said Boehm. “We’re more optimistic about soy, but overall we’ll be down for the year.”

For the farms that do have crops, their harvest may not as big as they were hoping back in the spring. Or it may be an easy year for them: Because of the shortage in other parts of the state and country, if they have crops, they’ll get a good price for them, said Deacon.

If they don’t have crops, there’s always the USDA-FSA loans.

USDA-FSA loan programThe counties designated by USDA as natural disaster or contiguous disaster areas means that qualified farm operators are eligible for low-interest emer-gency loans from the FSA, provided eligibility requirements are met. Farmers have eight months from the date of the declaration to apply for loans to help cover part of their actual losses. FSA has a variety of programs, in addition to loans, to help eligible farmers recover.

But it’s by no means Easy Street. Even at the reduced interest rate, it will still cost producers to carry debt.

“The USDA, as well as state, programs are tools farmers can evaluate using,” said Deacon. “They may not have much profits, but they have employees, taxes, insurance and many other fixed costs to pay.”

Whether a crop is harvested or not, there is overhead that has to be paid, said Boehm. In addition, producers have to plan ahead and buy for next year. Without profits from a crop, the insurance will help.

“That’s the risk of farming. Some years, you make good money. Some years, you are struggling,” said Boehm. “Most farmers would rather have a bumper crop for a decent price, move the commodity and meet the need. Mother Nature got in the way of that this year.”

The statsAccording to the USDA, which is the agency responsible for compiling the official crop loss statistics and administering the federal emergency farm loan programs, Michigan corn farmers expect a yield of 114 bushels per acre, down 39 bushels from 2011. Soybean yield is forecast at 37 bushels per acre, down seven bushels from 2011, for statewide pro-duction totaling almost 74 million bushels. That is down 14 percent from last year. On the other hand, sugar beets expect a yield of 28 tons per acre, up 4 tons from 2011.

Nationally, corn production is down 13 percent from 2011. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, average yields are predicted to be the lowest since 1995. Soybean production nationwide is down 14 percent from last year. Sugar beets are expected to show a record yield.

Sugar beets in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb were planted early, Boehm said. As a tap root, it goes deep into the soil, bulking up during the summer.

Winter wheat, which is planted in the fall and harvested in July, was another bright spot, Boehm said. “It’s an important crop in Michigan, and it came off pretty well.”

Between low nationwide corn stocks to start the year and prospects for a fair 2012 crop fading, the price of corn and other feedstock commodities has soared. Feed will not only be more expensive, it will also be in short supply.

Farmers also must be wary of prematurely cutting drought-stressed corn for use as silage, a nutritious blend of chopped and partially fermented plant material. The stalks of underdeveloped corn plants, especially those stunted by drought, can sometimes contain unhealthy levels of nitrates, stored up in anticipation of developing an ear. Silage made from such corn often needs to be diluted with other feed to maintain maximum nutritional value.

Then there’s hay. If you don’t have good corn, you’re likely not going to have hay, said Boehm, and that’s a problem for the livestock industry.

Low hay yields a concernHay did not fare well. Reports from every county are that farmers are seeing a 30 percent or more decrease in hay production compared to previous years, said Deacon.

“The USDA keeps acreage records,” he said. “We’ll continue to see where things end up in harvest.”

“If you don’t have pasture in summer and bale hay in winter, it gets to be costly if you have to buy feed,” said Boehm.

While Michigan was not as hard hit as many other states, the shortage nationwide is going to drive up the cost of feed for producers around the country. Again, that creates an opportunity for some, but a tipping point for many.

Particularly with meat and dairy products, farmers are facing some hard decisions about production and the cost of doing business, Deacon said. With rising feed costs, they’ve had to look at whether to buy feed and how much, and how many animals they are going to be able to keep.

“Some are selling animals now, and therefore the longer-term impacts will have to be seen,” he said, adding that the USDA is predicting that consumer prices indeed will be impacted.

Nationally, prices react to the marketplace. Buyers who want corn for feed or ethanol plants bid up the price, resulting in record-high prices for corn and soybeans. This means the farmers who don’t have as much grain or forage for their herds as they need, and who can’t afford the higher market prices, will look to liquidate their cattle, pork and poultry.

“We’ll see meat prices stable to lower because of excess liquidation, said Boehm. “But in three to 12 months, we’ll see prices rise, because the animals that would have been fattening have been sold. Over the long term, there will be less meat available, so prices will go up.”

Beyond corn and soybeansWhen it comes to other vegetables in Michigan, it’s more of a “mixed bag,” Nye said. How much is harvested will depend on irrigation, how plants were affected by the hot weather, and how long into the fall the growing season extends before the first frost.

“Some like it relatively warm. If vegetables got rain, or had the opportunity to irrigate, they may have done relatively well this year,” said Nye. Overall, though, he expects to see a slight reduction in vegetable production.

Nye said with the early spring and warm summer, sweet corn, winter squash and pumpkins production is two to three weeks ahead of schedule. There is some “disease pressure” due to the heat, and “a little lost production” because it was so hot during blooming time, causing the flowers to abort, but these vegetables are at least faring better than the fruit did, Nye added.

He expects to see a decent harvest yield of tomatoes, squash, pickles, celery, carrots, onions and summer squash. Then it’s on to fall vegetables: The hard squash and potato harvest has started and will continue over the next six weeks or so.

To further complicate mattersAfter the frost-freeze, and then the drought, some areas like Hillsdale, Branch and St. Joseph counties, had floods that totaled up to 9 inches of rain.

“That hurts some of the vegetables,” Boehm said. “Luckily it was not widespread across the state.”

The drought hits more than producersThere is a broader economic impact that reaches beyond the farm into the community, Deacon said. A producer with greatly reduced or no income will buy less, and hire less. Harvest workers are not needed in the numbers they typically are. Because produce is not local, the costs to transport it, whether out or in, go up.

Where farmers tend to spend money is in their local areas, said Boehm. If they aren’t spending, they aren’t buying pickup and other equipment and supplies. They aren’t putting up additional buildings with their accompanying supplies and labor.

Crop insurance helps in years like this to provide a cushion not only for farmers but also for the community in which they live, Boehm said, acknowledging that it’s more difficult to design a sound aid program on the livestock side.

That’s why the five-year farm bill is key. Farmers need to know what support they can count on. Boehm and his colleagues are pushing Congress to pass the next bill before the election.

“With the current bill expiring at month’s end, farmers are left out there wondering what will be available when they’re trying to make decisions,” said Boehm. “There’s enough uncertainty in farming. Congress needs to get it done.”

There are other ways the lack of production this year could have longer-term effects, impacting next year’s sales. Customers could go elsewhere for product, and it would be a struggle for Michigan producers to get them to return.

“That’s what happens with a market situation: A one-year aberration is a concern, and it could mean a significant financial drain on producers to recover,” said Nye. “We’re hoping for a good year next year, because we’re going to need that.”

On the up-side, for fruit-bearing trees, not having a crop this year meant less stress on the plants.

“We would expect a high level of bloom on next year’s crop. That would be something we hope would give a little advantage next year,” said Nye.

In addition, some growers in wetter areas of the state would have vigorous trees this year, “so that may add up to something better in the future,” he said.

Trying to predict what is unpredictableBiological factors are always a concern to producers. Weather, however, always is one of the big unknowns.

In order to be in a good position for next year’s crop, after they have finished harvesting, farmers hope for additional rains this fall and snow in the winter to recharge the subsoil with moisture, as well as to refill lakes, rivers and ponds that some of them irrigate from. Boehm said meteorologists say there’s a chance of a wetter-than-normal fall and winter. A chance that could change.

Weather patterns are cyclical, and ocean patterns affect farmers around the world, he noted. It’s all part of the risk that farmers world-wide take.

“If this were only a Michigan problem, we wouldn’t see the dramatic rise in prices,” he said.

Fluctuation in commodity prices is the predictable part of an otherwise unpredictable industry. Next year, Boehm said, he expects volatility in the corn and soy markets due to low amount of grain left to carry over from 2011, and the amount the market won’t see from 2012. With the U.S. being the No. 1 exporter of these products, providing half of what is traded, markets will be watching South America at its harvest time in the spring to see what it will be able to supply. Experts also continue to look at weather, governments and other factors that play into the price of these commodities.

“There is a lot of concern for next spring and next year of what gets planted and where,” he said, “and trying to anticipate what someone is willing to sell and what someone is willing to buy.”

Here on the ground, farmers adapt, expecting the best and preparing for the worst, Nye said.

“With Michigan agriculture, due to diversity, hopefully we’ll get through it,” he said. “It will be difficult for individual producers, but we’re going to look forward to getting back at it next year.”

“Farmers are by nature an optimistic group,” said Deacon. “There’s always the hope that next year will be better.”

For more information on the federal emergency farm loan programs, visit www.fsa.usda.gov.

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