Vargas helps pick opponent in race for Congress

Democratic state Sen. Juan Vargas used some of the $630,000 he spent running for Congress in the primary election on an unusual but ultimately fruitful cause — direct mailers promoting a Republican rival, his preferred opponent in November.

Yes
44% (209)

No
56% (271)

480 total votes.

Vargas finished with 45 percent of the vote, according to unofficial results of Tuesday’s primary. Republican Michael Crimmins had 20 percent and former Democratic legislator Denise Moreno Ducheny had 15 percent.

“Denise Ducheny tries to block War Hero Michael Crimmins from TV debate,” read one Vargas mailer featuring a photograph of a saluting U.S. soldier.

“It’s wrong to exclude any candidate, especially ones with military service,” Vargas said in a mock news story pasted on the reverse side, without mentioning the debate hosts excluded Crimmins. Ducheny agreed to participate, but Vargas wouldn’t.

“I don’t know how to look Mr. Crimmins in the eyes and say… ‘Thank you for risking your life to protect our freedom. But, we’re sorry, you can’t debate.’”

Many expected Vargas and Ducheny to fight to a rematch in November under the new primary system where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. They probably would have, according to recent polling by the Vargas campaign.

That was until they employed a unique strategy to help propel one of three Republicans into second place — virtually guaranteeing November’s election to Vargas in the heavily Democratic 51st district that runs along the U.S.-Mexico border.

“I am not going to sit here and say, ‘We knew for a fact that this would work.’ But we knew that we had a good chance of this working,” said Larry Remer, Vargas’ campaign strategist.

In all, Vargas spent at least eight times more promoting Crimmins than the Republican spent on his own campaign. If the plan didn’t work, Vargas was almost certain to square off with Ducheny.

“On that score, we felt good about the fact that we would have bloodied her pretty badly through the campaign,” Remer said. “At the same time, our mail about Crimmins would have ingratiated Juan to the Republicans. Plan B, so to speak, still put us in a good position.”

Told Vargas spent between $40,000 and $50,000 to directly promote Crimmins, Ducheny said her campaign was essentially caught off guard.

“I think we underestimated the whole Republican issue,” said Ducheny, who spent about $226,000 through May 16. “With three Republicans in the race, we thought they would divide among themselves whatever base-Republican vote there was.”

The Republican-endorsed candidate was Xanthi Gionis, not Crimmins, who some time ago clashed with local GOP officials and was removed from the party central committee.

“We are so old-school we just don’t anticipate those kinds of campaign tactics,” Ducheny said. “We just believe you go forward and you do it straight up: You try to show your record and you talk about what you will do, and people either believe what you say or they don’t.”

Ducheny said it was unfortunate neither Vargas nor Crimmins live in the redrawn district, which is not a legal requirement.

“It’s our shortcoming that we didn’t get our message out early enough,” she said.

Crimmins, who mounted unsuccessful campaigns against Democratic Rep. Susan Davis in 2008 and 2010, said he expected to finish in the top two despite spending less than $5,000. He also received some modest outside spending on his behalf. His campaign signs were recycled from previous runs and the splash page of his website was last updated in February 2011.

The Point Loma resident said he hadn’t seen the mailers but was told by Vargas that he was climbing in the polls.

“I don’t know that they helped me, but I know they threw Ducheny under the bus,” Crimmins said. “I felt really bad about how she was treated.”

Vargas’ team hatched the plan after internal polling showed him in a strong position. They set out to define Ducheny in the eyes of voters, relying on searing pieces that hit her for a drunk-driving arrest more than a decade ago, legislative trips and payments to her husband’s political consulting firm.

“If she survived the primary that would cripple her candidacy,” Remer said.

The next challenge was to promote a Republican. They planned to mail comparison pieces to likely Republican voters that would continue to criticize Ducheny, place Vargas in a neutral-to-favorable light, and raise the name identification of one of the three Republicans on the ballot.

They bet Crimmins’ profile as a wounded combat veteran would raise his bona fides with Republicans. One batch of the three mailers went to absentee voters as they received their ballots. There was more polling. The other batch was mailed before Election Day.

There was another challenge. Vargas’ polling showed him approaching 60 percent of the vote, potentially allowing Ducheny to score in the midteens and still finish in second place. Vargas pulled back on positive mail in hopes that Ducheny would return fire, which she did, but not enough to damage his chances as the clear front-runner. Ducheny’s mail potentially drove more votes to Crimmins.

“If we hadn’t done the pieces, our polling tells us she would have gotten about 21, 20, (or) 19 percent and likely would have finished ahead of Crimmins,” Remer said.

For Vargas, who unsuccessfully clawed his way through grudge matches with Democratic Rep. Bob Filner in 1992, 1996 and 2006, the strategy prevented a tougher election down the road. It also provided a dash of sophistication to his usual bruising contests.

“Now we have a clear shot at Congress,” Remer said.

Ducheny said it’s these kinds of tactics — or, “rewarding bad behavior” — that cause people to distrust government and politicians. Ducheny said she also hopes her one-time rival, now destined for Capitol Hill, will begin to address the needs of constituents.

“In all the other offices he ever held, he’s always been running for Congress,” she said. “Now that he actually has it, maybe he’ll decide he can focus on doing something: answer the phones and deal with constituents and other things he doesn’t have a history of doing.

“Or, maybe that’s just wishful thinking on our part.”

Vargas and Crimmins face each other in the general election on November 6.