Two years after majority win, Alberta's Tory reign in peril

A happy Alison Redford greets her supporters at the P.C. headquarters in the Metropolitan Centre on Monday April 23, 2012 in Calgary.

Photograph by: Dean Bicknell
, Calgary Herald

Alberta Tories will mark a two-year anniversary Wednesday — an upset victory at the ballot box to extend their political dynasty — but any celebration will likely be bittersweet.

In the April 23, 2012, provincial election, the Progressive Conservatives under Alison Redford stormed from behind in the polls to win a massive majority government.

Two years later, however, Redford is out as premier, the PCs are searching for a new leader and the four-decade-old Tory reign appears to be in peril.

Observers believe the Tories' failure to learn their lessons from the 2012 vote has led to the party's current tough spot.

Pollster and political analyst Janet Brown said Tuesday that while polling firms have been derided for their surveys conducted during the campaign that showed the Wildrose Party in the lead, those polls showed Albertans were ready for change.

"Then there were some mistakes made at the end by the Wildrose, some good things were done by the PCs and the voters were trying to say to the Progressive Conservatives, 'OK, we'll give you another shot.'

"And I don't think the PCs ever appreciated the warning the public was trying to give them," she said.

Redford — Alberta's first female premier — resigned last month in the face of a caucus and party revolt stoked by expense controversies and allegations of an autocratic management style.

Brown said those leadership issues — along with policy flip-flops — were particularly damaging for a politician who campaigned as an agent of change.

MacEwan University political scientist Chaldeans Mensah said the PCs won the last provincial election, in part, through Redford cobbling together a new coalition of supporters by winning former Liberal and NDP voters worried about the prospect of a Wildrose government.

After the vote, however, Redford and the PCs did little to hold on to that new cadre of supporters and actively alienated them through measures such as an austerity budget in 2013, said Mensah.

"Her policy approach was to basically undermine the group that really worked hard to bring her to power. I'm talking about the public sector, the nurses, the teachers and many of the public sector unions," he said.

"The party failed to understand the politics of Alberta had changed."

PC members will select a new leader in September, with Dave Hancock serving as leader and premier in the interim.

Hancock said Monday he wasn't interested in rehashing the provincial election. But the veteran MLA said the Tories have to show they are listening to Albertans not only on major public policy issues, but also around concerns about entitlements and ethics.

"We've learned from the last few months that we do need to focus. We need to be open and transparent," Hancock told reporters at the legislature.

"The raising of doubts with respect to expenses, the raising of doubts with respect to sole-sourcing contracts, have distracted the public discussion from the really important issues about what kind of future do we want to have.

"If there's a learning, it's that we've got to be even more broadly open about what we're doing and why."

Susan Elliott, the campaign manager for the PCs in the 2012 vote, said there are positive lessons to take away from the last election.

The Tory emphasis on building public infrastructure resonated with voters and will likely continue to be a key message from the party, she said.

And the PC victory was driven by the organizational prowess of the party on the local level, which remains a major asset for the Tories, said Elliott.

"What the party is likely to do is go back to those strengths that have stood so well for 40-some odd years now," she said. "I think the party did try and go in a little bit of a different direction under Ms. Redford and it didn't turn out all that well."

The selection of the new leader will be key in whether the party can successfully rebuild its once-powerful brand, analysts agree.

Brown said that polls following the announced departure of Ed Stelmach showed an immediate rebound for the Tories.

With Albertans feeling burned, that hasn't happened with Redford's resignation, she said.

"The public's not prepared to just assume the PCs are going to elect a good leader who is going to put this back together ... they're sort of withholding judgment," she said.

"The first job of that new leader will be to regain that trust and really show Albertans it's a new day."

Redford timeline

April 23, 2012 — Alison Redford's Tories capture 61 seats after trailing the Wildrose for much of the election campaign.March 7, 2013 — Redford's government releases a budget that sees an operational spending freeze and cuts in areas such as post-secondary education, while also adding billions of dollars in debt for provincial infrastructure.Nov. 23, 2013 — Redford wins 77 per cent support from party members in the PC's mandatory leadership review.March 19, 2014 — Buffeted by controversies and a party uprising, Redford announces she will step down March 23.

Sept. 6, 2014 — PC party members will vote for a new leader — and Alberta premier. If no candidate wins a majority on the first ballot, a second vote will be held on Sept. 20.

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