WiFi, cellular data to account for 60% of all Internet traffic by 2016

WiFi will account for more than half of all Internet traffic by 2016, and cellular data will grow by leaps and bounds to take a 10 percent share, according to Cisco.

Cisco today is releasing the latest version of its Visual Networking Index, which measures global Internet usage and predicts future trends. In 2011, WiFi accounted for 40 percent of all traffic, while cellular data accounted for 2 percent, with the remainder coming from traditional fixed traffic (from dial-up to broadband). By 2016, WiFi will account for 51 percent of all traffic and cellular will quintuple, moving up to 10 percent.

WiFi, of course, can't exist without back-end physical infrastructure, as we've discussed in previous stories. Cisco's numbers show the proportion of traffic going over WiFi at the point where it reaches end user devices in the form of smartphones, tablets, laptops, etc.

All types of traffic are growing, with a fourfold increase expected between 2011 and 2016. 30.7 exabytes of data crossed IP-based networks per month in 2011. That number hit 44 exabytes per month this year and will keep rising to 110 exabytes per month by 2016, Cisco said. Technology predictions are often wrong, but Cisco said its track record is pretty good. In 2007 Cisco predicted IP traffic would reach 28.4 exabytes per month by 2011, and the actual number turned out to be slightly higher.

Some other trends: Cisco expects average fixed broadband speeds to increase from 9Mbps in 2011 to 34Mbps per second in 2016; 45 percent of the world's population will be online by 2016, totaling 3.4 billion Internet users; and network-connected devices will nearly double from 10.3 billion in 2011 to 18.9 billion in 2016. Traffic measured by exabytes is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa (and slowest in North America), but Asia/Pacific countries are producing the most Internet traffic worldwide.

As we've reported, video is the biggest factor driving increasing amounts of data moving over IP-based networks. With more and more mobile connections, cellular networks will have to meet the challenge with 4G and LTE technologies. "We do actually see mobile traffic and mobile network speeds growing faster than fixed network speeds," said Cisco communications manager Thomas Barnett. But of course, he said, cellular networks are "starting at a lower base."

Please correct me if I'm wrong (I've only had one cup of coffee this morning) but I'm trying to figure out the headline and how it relates to the article. Is this 60% of the first hop of internet traffic be transmitted by WiFi or cell before hitting the physical backbone which is the internet? Even WiFi is generally connected to a physical line, whether it be fiber, coax, DSL, or POTS. Even if 100% of home users used WiFi and ditched the CAT cable completely, 100% of those users would still have a physical connection at their homes somewhere (leaching aside). Anyway, it's a first or last hop question.

whaaa.. yeah this is very confusing. Not least because it's quite possible (and indeed common, thanks to tethering) to share a cellular data connection over WiFi. It would be nice to have some quality Ars reporting on this instead of what looks like a regurgitated press release.

Please correct me if I'm wrong (I've only had one cup of coffee this morning) but I'm trying to figure out the headline and how it relates to the article. Is this 60% of the first hop of internet traffic be transmitted by WiFi or cell before hitting the physical backbone which is the internet? Even WiFi is generally connected to a physical line, whether it be fiber, coax, DSL, or POTS. Even if 100% of home users used WiFi and ditched the CAT cable completely, 100% of those users would still have a physical connection at their homes somewhere (leaching aside). Anyway, it's a first or last hop question.

Well, yes, WiFi couldn't exist without physical infrastructure. We went into that in a bit more detail in this article: http://arstechnica.com/business/2012/05 ... e-averted/ In this case, we're talking about traffic that passes over WiFi at the point it reaches the end user.

Please correct me if I'm wrong (I've only had one cup of coffee this morning) but I'm trying to figure out the headline and how it relates to the article. Is this 60% of the first hop of internet traffic be transmitted by WiFi or cell before hitting the physical backbone which is the internet? Even WiFi is generally connected to a physical line, whether it be fiber, coax, DSL, or POTS. Even if 100% of home users used WiFi and ditched the CAT cable completely, 100% of those users would still have a physical connection at their homes somewhere (leaching aside). Anyway, it's a first or last hop question.

Well, yes, WiFi couldn't exist without physical infrastructure. We went into that in a bit more detail in this article: http://arstechnica.com/business/2012/05 ... e-averted/ In this case, we're talking about traffic that passes over WiFi at the point it reaches the end user.

Yeah that makes more sense, and I got that from reading the article, but the title makes it seem like Wi-Fi data used in smartphones would be consuming 60% of all internet usage rather than just Wi-Fi devices which is almost every laptop (and quite a few desktops) in existence.

So the "WiFi" in the title should really be changed to something like "Broadband (Cable/DSL/FTTH)"?

The one thought I got from reading the article was "So the North American cellular providers are going to keep on screwing us over for as much profit as we're willing to pay them".

It'd be nice to get a cellular traffic breakdown by territory, the article says Asia / Pacific leads the world in internet traffic - so compare that territory with North America and see what people are using their cellular data for. Then sprinkle in some info on costs of service from several providers across the territories, don't have to guess the US will get shown up to some degree.

Oddly enough, we just signed up for a streaming Netflix account (actually free 30 day trial atm). For years we had 5mbps cable internet, then one day my wife calls and threatens to cancel, now we're on 20mbps down, 5mbps up and saving 15 bucks a month. Our wireless router had also been set to "B only" for the years we had 5mbps service, I noticed internet throughput didn't really change even on the faster plan. D'oh! Switched to 802.11G now and life is good.

Not really surprising about WiFi. My house ditched Cat5 a long time ago. Everything runs through a Linksys router plugged into Comcast. We don't stream HiDef video, so there is no compelling reason to have cable running about the house (but even that will be solved by the new 811ac standard. I guess if I had an ethernet jack next to my desktop, I'd go landline for the better security and ping times, but with Comcast as the bottleneck, GigE doesn't have a lot of local value.

Please correct me if I'm wrong (I've only had one cup of coffee this morning) but I'm trying to figure out the headline and how it relates to the article. Is this 60% of the first hop of internet traffic be transmitted by WiFi or cell before hitting the physical backbone which is the internet? Even WiFi is generally connected to a physical line, whether it be fiber, coax, DSL, or POTS. Even if 100% of home users used WiFi and ditched the CAT cable completely, 100% of those users would still have a physical connection at their homes somewhere (leaching aside). Anyway, it's a first or last hop question.

Well, yes, WiFi couldn't exist without physical infrastructure. We went into that in a bit more detail in this article: http://arstechnica.com/business/2012/05 ... e-averted/ In this case, we're talking about traffic that passes over WiFi at the point it reaches the end user.

Hmmm... taking a short sample of the past and stating the future will continue with the rate of growth... Why do people even publish this stupidity. Remember when the entire globe was supposed to run out of food by 2015?!?

Every reporter should have to take a statistics course so that they can cry Foul when ridiculous statistics like this are published.

I am NOT saying that the Cisco/article assertions won't come try, or even *under-shoot* what actually happens. I'm addressing the ongoing stupidity of such logic-less thinking.

At some point, reporters need to start feeling embarrassed for repeating stupidity. Why not do a very short piece on how ridiculous Cisco's claims are based on what is taught in introductory statistics, math, or even psychology courses.

I have another headline for a future Ars Technica article:"99% of people walk to work"Because I have to "walk" to my "car" before I drive to work, that statement is 100% true according to Ars' high standards of article headlines.