During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.

To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

All Reports

Drivers of Inflation and Interest Rates

Asynchronous recessions among major world economies in the second half of the 1990s allowed the U.S. to enjoy low inflation and healthy growth, as the Fed was able to keep interest rates low in the context of imported disinflation. Currently, however, inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, while economic growth is clearly slowing.

ECRI has just completed a new study on the direction of inflation and interest rates, including cyclical and structural perspectives. The results have important implications for those concerned about future shifts in the direction of inflation and interest rates.