CoreLogic HPI Forecasts

Home-Price Projections Thirty Years into the Future

Since home-price forecasts are the key to identifying opportunities, risks, and potential volatilities in future real estate markets, their accuracy is critical to success. Forecast accuracy depends on the right balance of data input, expertise of the analytics staff, and quality of the analytics toolset used to produce the results.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts is designed to optimize this balance, generating verifiably trustworthy monthly predictions of home-price movements at the national, state, county, CBSA, and ZIP code levels up to thirty years (360 months) into the future.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios help banks, investors, government entities, and others initiate or evaluate compliance with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Dodd-Frank Stress-Test (DFAST) regulations—or develop independent stress-testing regimens of their own. Aligned with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ national CCAR supervisory home price scenarios, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios project those scenarios out five years at the state, CBSA, and ZIP Code levels on a monthly basis—for single-family combined (SFC) and SFC-excluding-stressed homes.

Current, Complete Home Price Data

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts indexes are built from the same datasets as CoreLogic HPI—the most current and comprehensive available—with broad, deep coverage that leverages the full power of the industry-standard CoreLogic real estate databases. These datasets cover 7,400-plus ZIP codes, 1,300-plus counties, and 930-plus Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), in all 50 states (including non-disclosure) and the District of Columbia.

Market Condition Indicators and Long-Term Fundamental Values

Market Condition Indicators, an analytical enhancement now available with base subscriptions to CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecasts at no additional cost, identifies whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or at value.

Source: CoreLogic HPI

Available for more than 350 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Market Condition Indicators is derived from long-term fundamental values—home-price “norms” based on the correlation of home prices with real disposable income per capita. Overvalued and undervalued markets are defined as those having a current home price index at least 10% above or 10% below those long-term fundamental values.

By identifying the relationship between a market’s long-term value and its current pricing, Market Condition Indicators help inform successful investment strategies and risk management decisions. The long-term CBSA fundamental values are also available to clients, letting you tighten or broaden value thresholds as your own business use warrants.

Both long-term fundamental values and Market Condition Indicators come at no increase in subscription fees.

Thirty-Year Forecast Horizon

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts predicts home price movements at national, state, county, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA), and ZIP code levels at monthly intervals—generating forecasts of likely home-price changes up to thirty years (360 months) in the future.

To generate these short- and long-term projections, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts combines the most comprehensive housing resale data with accurate modeling.

Available quarterly, these reports are available on request at no additional charge to subscribers.

Deep, Broad Coverage, Including Non-Disclosure States

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts data covers:

7400+ ZIP codes

1300+ counties

930+ CBSAs

50 states (including non-disclosure) + DC

National

Two Tiers, Including Non-Distressed Transactions Tier

In order to control for the impact of REO and other distressed properties on future price trends, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts offers two tiers:

Single-family combined

Single-family combined, excluding distressed properties

Built on Rigorous Two-Stage Error-Correction Modeling Framework

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts is based on a well-regarded two-stage error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium house price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate.

Download Current CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecast Datasheet

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