Posts Tagged ‘Indian Economy’

While it is too soon for the latest CFTC data to reflect the market’s response to the OPEC decision, the forward curve is giving us a good indication of what has happened. Short positions by speculators have been closed out amid the post-OPEC meeting euphoria, while oil producers have snapped up short positions along the forward curve, hedging future oil production over the coming years.

India’s oil demand grew by 400,000 barrels per day in the first quarter – the fastest in the world, accounting for about 30% of the total global increase. Crude oil imports have jumped by 12% so far this year from 2015 levels. India’s oil demand could rise to 10 mb/d, a more than 6 mb/d increase from today’s levels, which will also be the largest source of growth on the planet.

Raghuram Rajan, governor of the RBI, has been leery of the unconventional monetary policy tools used by central banks since the financial crisis. At some point, he said, pushing interest rates low seems to have the perverse effect of making people save rather than spend. The asset-price boost that comes with QE may disappear if these assets can’t grow into their valuation.

India and China seem to be buying gold “at a rate which probably accounts for close to the full total of global mined supply.” And given that they aren’t the only gold-consuming nations, the “conundrum” of why the gold price is falling remains. Surely that has to end soon.

Gold has done well for Indians who are still interested in gold, and will keep buying also due to the high deficit and high inflation. But Indians are having trouble getting as much real gold as they want – Can the Indian government really continue to stop gold imports here?

The Indian government finally succeeded in stifling gold imports in August and are expected to be shockingly down to 2.5 tonnes, considering that India represents the largest chunk of global demand and imported an average 72 tonnes per month in 2012.