This summer's World Cup could leave banks struggling to protect themselves and customers against card fraud, as a surge in unusual transactions throws off risk scoring mechanisms, claims vendor Actimize.

Banks see sharp increases in fraud during large one-off events such as the World Cup and Olympics, says the security outfit, struggling to to identify suspect transactions because of the statistical "noise" generated.

Jackie Barwell, manager, financial crime products, Actimize, says: "Because of the increased volume of amateurish 'noise' created by opportunists, many of the phishing emails created by organised criminals look incredibly professional. These more professional schemes will direct unsuspecting victims to convincing Web pages asking for credit card details or online banking log-ins."

Banks, already alert to the fact that customers' cards are at risk, should amend their transactional risk scoring and anti-fraud processes so as to distinguish genuine suspicious activity across all customer channels - ATM, debit and credit card transactions as well as online transactions, says Actimize.

The firm calls on banks to tap behavioural profiling to keep ahead of the scammers, using multiple scoring tiers and sophisticated analytics to identify high-risk transactions in real-time.

In other World Cup-related news, quant analysts at JP Morgan have tipped England to win the tournament this summer. Matthew Burgess and Marco Dion have tapped Fifa rankings, historical results and the latest bookies' odds for their model, which even includes a penalty shoot-out metric.

Incredibly, despite finding that Brazil is the strongest side in the competition, the model predicts that England will vanquish Spain in the final.

However, England fans should exercise caution; a rival model from UBS predicts a Brazil victory, with Capello's men given just a four per cent chance of a first victory since 1966.