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Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Moving Towards Electoral Reform

Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau (LPC - Papineau, QC) has repeatedly stated that 2015 will be the last
election fought under the first-past-the-post model. Some version of electoral
reform is on its way, that much seems very likely. I was tempted to say
inevitable but there is a caveat that I will address soon.

The electoral reform will
be selected by an parliamentary committee that will study this question,
provide and recommendation and the government will move forward from there. Of
course any parliamentary committee will be composed of Members of Parliament
who are members of political parties with distinct interests in the electoral
reform question.

The Greens and NDP are
aligned on the electoral reform debate. They favour a proportional system. In
such a system the number of seats a party wins in the House of Commons would
approximately match the number of votes that party received. So, in the last
election the Liberals received about 39% of the vote and would therefore be
allocated 39% of the seats. The Greens and NDP favour this position for two
reasons. The first explanation is rooted in equity. In a proportional system
every vote is equal, there are no geographic distortions and minority desires
are not shut out. The second reason is, of course, political. Smaller parties
prefer proportional representation because their popularity often exceeds their
ability to elect members. Both the NDP and Greens have concentrated support in
certain areas but also receive votes across the country that do not add up
enough to elect members. Proportional representation reflects that support in the
House of Commons. Proportional representation is the standard in the democratic
world. Germany, Japan, New Zealand, the vast majority of Europe and Latin
America all use it.

The Conservatives oppose
all forms of electoral reform. This is because the only system that allows them
to form government in the current political dynamic is the first-past-the-post
model. The Conservative Party is, at the moment, Canada's only right-wing
party. The rest of the political spectrum is filled with
centre/centre-left/left-wing parties. It is fair to say that in any given
election that about 25-40% of the public may vote Conservative, which means
they are very unlikely to form a government under proportional representation.
Proportional systems encourage coalition governments and the Conservatives
would have a much more difficult time finding willing partners. Their closest
allies would be the Liberal Party, their chief rival. The Conservative Party
has a vested interest in seeing electoral reform fail.

The Liberals are in a
different place entirely. While I can recall Liberals advocating for
proportional representation Justin Trudeau has expressed that the preferential
ballot is more to his liking. Unsurprisingly the preferential ballot would
likely disproportionately benefit the Liberal Party. In a preferential ballot
voters rank their choices (1, 2, 3, 4). The candidate with the fewest votes is
bumped off and those votes are redistributed to their second choice. This continues
until one candidates has a majority of the votes. This reform would have the
least dramatic implementation while still reshaping our politics. The impact
would be particularly pronounced in Quebec now that many races are four-way
contests.

Given the composition of
the House of Commons I expect that this committee will recommend a preferential
ballot. The question is whether or not the committee will impose a poison pill
- a referendum. Referenda on electoral reforms have failed consistently in
Canada. The status quo simply bears too much weight and the fear of change is
pervasive. In any referendum the Conservatives would campaign hard and at least
some percentage of the chattering classes will be dissatisfied that their
preferred system wasn't chosen. In moments of deep cynicism I would not be
surprised if the Liberals attached a referendum if proportional is selected to
see that it fail.

Ultimately I hope 2015 is
the last election with the first-past-the-post system. My preference is for a
mixed-member proportional system, as they use in Germany. Given my opposition
to FPTP I would even consider preferential as a more desirable option than the
current model. If carried through this will be a major component of Trudeau's
legacy, but it will be a very difficult task.