Futures Market Gets It Right on Recall Prediction

October 20, 2003 | Los Angeles Times

The Iowa Electronic Market at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's business school got it right, predicting that California Gov. Gray Davis would be recalled and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger would be elected to replace him. The political futures market, operated by six professors at the university's business college, predicted a 54.2 percent vote for the recall - it came in at 55.4 percent. It anticipated a Schwarzenegger win with 47.2 percent - he got 48.7 percent.