DJ Hero not a flop after all; 1.2 million sales since launch

When the first sales data was released on Activision's $120 DJ simulator, the numbers were dire. We had some thoughts about why the game fell on its face so harshly... and that's where the subject was laid to rest. Often overlooked is the fact that games continue to have a life after their initial release, and sometimes the majority of sales can occur after they have fallen from our radar.

"DJ Hero was dubbed a flop on its release... but what it needed was time for its audience to find it, a price break, and positive word from both friends and reviews to circulate," Activision's Dan Amrich wrote on his blog. Helped along by retail discounts, the game went on to sell 800,000 units at retail during the 2009 holiday season. To date the game has sold a very impressive 1.2 million units. "That's not a flop; that’s the long tail at work."

Blur is a more recent Activision title that is suffering the same problem, with some in the press already labeling it a flop. The issues? A crowded set of racing game releases, and NPD data that only tracked sales for a very limited amount of time. "So to suggest a game is a failure because it didn’t sell hundreds of thousands of units in its first 168 hours is pretty ridiculous," Amrich explained. Just like DJ Hero, the game's success or failure was being judged before it was given much of a chance at retail.

Point taken. Calling a game a success or flop based on a limited amount of sales information, especially so soon after launch, isn't the smartest thing to do. We were wrong on that one, and happily so; after playing DJ Hero 2 at E3 we're very glad the game is getting a sequel. DJ Hero 2 is doing some fun things with multiplayer this time around, including more intense DJ battles, and the music is just as good. Adding the ability to sing along to the music goes a long way to turning the title into the party game it always needed to be. Sometimes innovation and new IP just needs some time to find its legs.

I wish I hadn't gotten it on release. If I'd waited for the price drop I would have gotten the Renegade Edition. I have a hard time playing right now because it's so hard for me to position the turntable in my living room. The best I've managed is putting my Wii balance board on the ottoman for my chair and setting the turntable on that. I really need to go buy a stand.

Living with a console for a time, I missed the fact that Blur was released. I've been a Bizarre Creations fan since Metropolis Street Racer on the Dreamcast (and wish they'd bring back some of that soundtrack just because it lived up to the developers' name - some of it was just bizarre). I'm just going to have to go out and pick it up, though I really enjoyed the Split/Second demo, too. Not sure which it'll be.

Hopefully Alan Wake finds this same sort of long tail. We'll find out when the June numbers come out, I suppose. It's just too good to pass up.

The announcement of a sequel probably did more to encourage people to buy into it then anything else. It's hard to spend that much money on hardware if you don't know that there will ever be another title for it.

I wish I hadn't gotten it on release. If I'd waited for the price drop I would have gotten the Renegade Edition. I have a hard time playing right now because it's so hard for me to position the turntable in my living room. The best I've managed is putting my Wii balance board on the ottoman for my chair and setting the turntable on that. I really need to go buy a stand.

At least this is getting you some use out of the balance board. I wonder how many of those have been relegated to the Land of Lost Treadmills.

"So to suggest a game is a failure because it didn’t sell hundreds of thousands of units in its first 168 hours is pretty ridiculous," Amrich explained. Just like DJ Hero, the game's success or failure was being judged before it was given much of a chance at retail.

Activision is one of the main people behind this. Satan (kotick) is always crowing about opening weekend numbers. The industry is so short sighted that I am actually amazed that they came back and pulled a hind sight move.

It doesn't work for all of the songs, but there is guitar (hero) integration in some of them. For lack of a second turntable, it has been the only method I've had available for some in-house multiplayer action.

"Perhaps Activision should price their games correctly at launch" - maybe they are? If they can sell the first few units at a high price and then drop the price and still sell a lot more, that may be maximising their revenue. In fact, that's exactly how books are sold - expensive hardback first, then cheap paperback after a few months.

It almost sounds like payback for all those stories about how the games industry is bigger than Hollywood - movies need to sell big straight away because they are out of cinemas after a few weeks, but expecting a game/book/DVD to sell huge on first weekend is unnecessary.

"Perhaps Activision should price their games correctly at launch" - maybe they are? If they can sell the first few units at a high price and then drop the price and still sell a lot more, that may be maximising their revenue. In fact, that's exactly how books are sold - expensive hardback first, then cheap paperback after a few months.

If by a few you mean 9-12 in most cases, then yes. Most games are bargain-bin fodder by then.

I wish I hadn't gotten it on release. If I'd waited for the price drop I would have gotten the Renegade Edition. I have a hard time playing right now because it's so hard for me to position the turntable in my living room. The best I've managed is putting my Wii balance board on the ottoman for my chair and setting the turntable on that. I really need to go buy a stand.

At least this is getting you some use out of the balance board. I wonder how many of those have been relegated to the Land of Lost Treadmills.

Hey, the last time I was going on a trip I used it to weigh my luggage to make sure it was under 50lbs. It also makes a decent surface to set your food/drink on when you're sitting on the couch and don't have an end table or coffee table.

It doesn't work for all of the songs, but there is guitar (hero) integration in some of them. For lack of a second turntable, it has been the only method I've had available for some in-house multiplayer action.

No, DJ Hero should be combined with some sort of dance interface (DDR or whatever Kinect will have). So someone has to keep the beats going *and* their friends have to dance well to the songs.

I never liked box office numbers, especially opening weekend, because of this phenomenon. Sometimes previews and commercials don’t do a movie justice, and you have to wait for others to see the film to get the itch to go see it—and sometimes a crowded market full of blockbusters just drowns out a stellar title.

It’s good to see DJ Hero do well. We’ve enjoyed it (friend’s copy) quite a bit. We may get the inevitable sequel if multiplayer is improved.

It doesn't work for all of the songs, but there is guitar (hero) integration in some of them. For lack of a second turntable, it has been the only method I've had available for some in-house multiplayer action.

No, DJ Hero should be combined with some sort of dance interface (DDR or whatever Kinect will have). So someone has to keep the beats going *and* their friends have to dance well to the songs.

I wish I hadn't gotten it on release. If I'd waited for the price drop I would have gotten the Renegade Edition. I have a hard time playing right now because it's so hard for me to position the turntable in my living room. The best I've managed is putting my Wii balance board on the ottoman for my chair and setting the turntable on that. I really need to go buy a stand.

At least this is getting you some use out of the balance board. I wonder how many of those have been relegated to the Land of Lost Treadmills.

Hey, the last time I was going on a trip I used it to weigh my luggage to make sure it was under 50lbs. It also makes a decent surface to set your food/drink on when you're sitting on the couch and don't have an end table or coffee table.

Now, I've never actually laid my hands on this game, so I don't know the details, but DJH1 still only has one turntable right? i.e. It's not like a "real life" dual turntable/CDJ setup? Will that be any different in DJH2?

It doesn't work for all of the songs, but there is guitar (hero) integration in some of them. For lack of a second turntable, it has been the only method I've had available for some in-house multiplayer action.

No, DJ Hero should be combined with some sort of dance interface (DDR or whatever Kinect will have). So someone has to keep the beats going *and* their friends have to dance well to the songs.

*That* is the natural co-mingle for this game.

Your idea. It is excellent. Subscribe, newsletter, & all that.

Everyone I've mentioned it to loves the idea. It seems obvious to me. Dunno why it hasn't been implemented yet.

No, DJ Hero should be combined with some sort of dance interface (DDR or whatever Kinect will have). So someone has to keep the beats going *and* their friends have to dance well to the songs.

*That* is the natural co-mingle for this game.

Yes. I had a concept for a multiplayer game in which one party was the DJ while the other controlled the dancer, creating a fluid battle of innovating break beats (without losing the rhythm and thus the audience) against reactive and anticipatory dance moves. This was before the auxiliary controller craze; maybe I should revisit it now...

The various Hero games have a challenge since they have to sell you on the peripheral. Finding the right price when you're competing with all different collections of guitars and instruments has got to be difficult.

I wish I hadn't gotten it on release. If I'd waited for the price drop I would have gotten the Renegade Edition. I have a hard time playing right now because it's so hard for me to position the turntable in my living room. The best I've managed is putting my Wii balance board on the ottoman for my chair and setting the turntable on that. I really need to go buy a stand.

At least this is getting you some use out of the balance board. I wonder how many of those have been relegated to the Land of Lost Treadmills.

Hey, the last time I was going on a trip I used it to weigh my luggage to make sure it was under 50lbs. It also makes a decent surface to set your food/drink on when you're sitting on the couch and don't have an end table or coffee table.

"Perhaps Activision should price their games correctly at launch" - maybe they are? If they can sell the first few units at a high price and then drop the price and still sell a lot more, that may be maximising their revenue. In fact, that's exactly how books are sold - expensive hardback first, then cheap paperback after a few months.

It almost sounds like payback for all those stories about how the games industry is bigger than Hollywood - movies need to sell big straight away because they are out of cinemas after a few weeks, but expecting a game/book/DVD to sell huge on first weekend is unnecessary.

And don't forget the fact that a price reduction can be more important than absolute price in consumers' minds. You know the strategy -- artificially inflate the price, then put it on "sale".

In this, games are very different from movies. Movies can be fairly accurately evaluated by their first couple of months. Games, on the other hand, can have persistent strong sales -- particularly the good ones.

Wait, activision actually being smart about something related to money? What the hell?

Sure about that? Who's to say it was still making money when they were unloading units at $60 shortly after it didn't sell at its original cost?

Activision is making a sequel, so they obviously believe they can make money on it. Even if they eventually sold it at a loss (which is extremely unlikely) people who have a turntable from DJ Hero 1 are an easier target group for DJ Hero 2 software than your random person who needs to buy a turntable for the second one.

In fairness to the greatly exaggerated rumors of DJ Hero's demise, for the vast majority of video games (with Nintendo first-party titles being the glaring, obvious, mind-numbingly huge exception), the initial sales level is a superb indicator of how well the game will do. That DJH is an exception to this rule is good for Activision, and kudos for the "we were wrong" post...but, in general, you absolutely can judge a game a flop after a week's worth of poor sales.

DJH is the best-yet example of the long-tail-return. How many hundreds of thousands of these games were given as thoughtless gifts; now sitting unopened in back closets waiting for Target to drop the price below the no-return-without-receipt amount? A CFO's wet-dream: "A big clunky gift card that loses half its value in the waiting!"

"you absolutely can judge a game a flop after a week's worth of poor sales."

But you'll be wrong sometimes... in which case your 'judgments' aren't worth much are they?

Yep. Any method which is capable of ever producing an incorrect result is totally worthless. This is why we don't have meteorologists, detectives, or scientists. It's also why I get out of my car at every stop sign to personally interview every other driver present as to whether he or she plans to properly take his or her turn to go.

My buds and I went through S/S -- afterwards I picked up Blur for $39 bucks. It's good -- but nowhere near as rewarding as S/S. I dunno -- there is a lot to do, and the challenges are tough -- but is it as fun? My closest peers and I think not.