71% of votes in the election, in constituencies affected by Heathrow, were for anti- 3rd runway candidates

Date added: July 4, 2017

Analysis of the 8th June general election results, in constituencies affected by Heathrow, done by the No 3rd Runway Coalition, found that over 70% of votes were cast for anti-3rd runway candidates. The analysis also confirms that 68% of votes cast for the Conservatives, and 65% for Labour, were for candidates who oppose the Heathrow runway. Plans for the runway have been thrown into serious doubt since Theresa May failed to win a majority she was expecting. The breakdown of the election results underlines just how unpopular Heathrow expansion really is – not just by a large number of Mrs May’s own Tory MPs but by the majority of voters too. Two key Cabinet ministers — Boris Johnson and Justine Greening — are fiercely opposed to expansion plans, as are most Conservative MPs in London seats. With the majorities of both Boris Johnson and Justine Greening severely slashed at this election, these new figures suggest both Cabinet Ministers could lose their seats next time if Theresa May were to press ahead with Heathrow expansion. Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond Park & North Kingston, is one of the most vocal campaigners against a 3rd runway. His seat was the only Conservative gain in London at this election – narrowly winning with just 45 votes. Were the Government to press ahead with Heathrow expansion, his would be another seat that the Conservatives could very likely lose.
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71% OF VOTES CAST AT THE GENERAL ELECTION WERE FOR ANTI-3RD RUNWAY CANDIDATES

4.7.2017 (No 3rd Runway Coalition)

Election analysis by the No 3rd Runway Coalition found that over 70% of votes were cast for anti-3rd runway candidates at the General Election on 8 June (see analysis below).

The analysis also confirms that 68% of votes cast for the Conservatives, and 65% for Labour, were for candidates who oppose the expansion of the airport.

Plans for a third runway have been thrown into serious doubt after Theresa May failed to win a majority at the last election.

These new figures underline just how unpopular Heathrow expansion really is – not just by a large number of her own MPs but by the majority of voters too.

Two of her own Cabinet ministers — Boris Johnson and Justine Greening — are fiercely opposed to expansion plans, as are most Conservative MPs in London seats.

With the majorities of both Boris Johnson and Justine Greening severely slashed at this election, these new figures suggest both Cabinet Ministers could lose their seats next time if Theresa May were to press ahead with Heathrow expansion.

Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond Park & North Kingston, is one of the most vocal campaigners against a third runway. His seat was the only Conservative gain in London at this election – narrowly winning with just 45 votes. Were the Government to press ahead with Heathrow expansion, his would be another seat that the Conservatives could very likely lose.

John McDonnell, Labour MP for Hayes and Harlington and Shadow Chancellor, said:“This election made it very clear that Heathrow expansion continues to be a big issue for many voters – and rightly so.

“It can be no coincidence that the Conservatives did so badly in London, with a Manifesto that pledged to build a third runway at Heathrow.

“Speaking in my role as the local MP, let’s hope the election result will not only make Heathrow plans impossible to get through parliament, but that the Government will now recognise the real strength of feeling against the building of a third runway.”

Rob Barnstone, Coordinator of the No 3rd Runway Coalition:“These figures provide clear evidence that supporting a 3rd runway at Heathrow is politically toxic in the large number of constituencies affected by the airport. With Theresa May needing all the support she can get at the moment, let’s hope she drops these plans and starts looking at viable alternatives which will be more popular with voters.”

The analysis compiled the positions of all election candidates in the constituencies which experience aircraft noise from Heathrow, located within the 51db noise contour, the figure at which the DfT suggest marks the onset of community annoyance from aircraft noise around Heathrow – a total of over 1,000,000 people within 22 constituencies and comprising of a total of 1,173046 votes.

The number of votes for each candidate from the Conservative and Labour parties were categorised as either in favour or opposing a 3rd runway. In a few instances, views were unknown and were categorised as such. All the votes cast for Liberal Democrat, Green and UKIP candidates were considered as anti 3rd Runway as the party positions are completely opposed to expansion.

FULL ANALYSIS

Analysis of votes in constituencies within the 51 decibel noise contour at the 2017 General Election.

This analysis looks at the relationship between the view of candidates at the 2017 General Election and the number of votes received for those both for and against the proposed expansion of Heathrow Airport.

The analysis uses all the constituencies located within a 51 decibel noise contour, in relation to the noise of aircraft around Heathrow. The Government has suggested that using a measure meant of 51 decibels as the average aircraft noise measurement experienced over the course of 16-hour period, best indicates the level at which community annoyance in relation to aircraft noise begins. There are an estimated 1,500,000 people, including children, that fall within this noise contour – far, far greater than any other airport in the Europe and one of the highest in the world.

The Conservative Party stated it would support the development of Heathrow Airport expansion in its 2017 manifesto. In this analysis however, the position of Conservative candidates has been identified on a candidate-by-candidate basis. The analysis found that 68% of the votes cast for the Conservatives in the constituencies assessed were for candidates who opposed Heathrow expansion. Given the large share of votes cast for candidates against a third runway, the Government could run in to potential problems in the House of Commons if it forces a Parliamentary vote on Heathrow expansion (as part of an Airports National Policy Statement). Moreover, local Conservative candidates are likely to remain conscious of constituents who could vote differently at the next election, if, as constituency MPs, they were to vote to support Heathrow expansion and dissuade a large numbers of votes being cast in their favour.

The Labour Party supported increased airport capacity in the south east of England in its manifesto, but, unlike the Conservatives, did not give a direct mention of Heathrow, suggesting the Party could be prepared to back Expansion at locations such as Gatwick or Stansted in the future. In similarity to the Conservative Party however, this analysis identifies the position of candidates, and therefore the number of votes cast, on a candidate-by-candidate basis, given a large number of Labour candidates within the constituencies studied here did not support a third runway, who received 65% of all the votes cast for the party.

All votes cast for the Liberal Democrat, Green and UKIP candidates are counted as against a third runway as those parties demonstrated clear opposition to the project in their respective 2017 General Election manifestos.

Votes cast for other candidates, including independents and very small minority parties have been added, reaching 0.5% of the total votes cast. As there were a large number of candidates within this category where a fair number of whose position on Heathrow were known, half the number of votes cast (6,285), have been allocated to each tally of those for and against a third runway.

All 22 constituencies and the candidates are listed below the key statistics found in the analysis.