Would You Like a Sample

In chapter 8 of this week’s Gawiser and Witt assignment, the issue of sampling within a poll was addressed. Specifically, they defined sampling as a subgroup of the population. In other words, the sample is the basis for the conceived notion of an entire population and it is the “most important component in the precision of the survey, which is measured in what is referred to as ‘sampling error. ‘” The chapter went onto look into probability sampling, which is characterized by the simple random sample, which is a sample, “in which all of the units in the population have an equal chance of inclusion in the sample and the selection of one unit does not impact the selection of any other unit.” From there, we learned of cluster sampling, telephone sampling and quota sampling.
Chapter 11 dealt specifically with sampling error, which is the amount of chance variation expected in a series of samples of the population. It includes the reality that not everyone in the population was talked to, and thus the results may not match the true opinions of the entire population. In accordance with this last statement, it should be realized that sampling error is present in a perfectly correct sample, it represents random chance. Essentially sampling error boils down to this. If a poll reported that President Obama’s approval rating was at 45% with a 3% sample error, it would mean that his approval rating was realistically somewhere between 42% and 48%.
Chapter 4 from Asher and the first part of the Erickson and Tedin reading deal with the same concepts as outlined above, and basically served as a lengthier rehashing. What was most interesting was the end of the Erickson and Tedin reading, which dealt with “nonresponse.” Nonresponse is specific to telephone surveys and involves more than just the refusal of answers to respond to the survey in question. It also includes no answers, or the use of an answering machine. The excerpt speaks on how pollsters believe that nonresponse has become a serious problem and seems to be getting worse. Even surveys that are considered high-quality are losing responses. “The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumer Attitudes, a national telephone poll that has been conducted every year since 1977, showed a drop in responses of 24% between 1979 and 2003.”
The most interesting part of this problem is that nonresponse has led to an overrepresentation of the elderly, blacks, woman, and the poor. A Pew Research study showed a small opinion difference between those willing to be interviewed and those reluctant (people who denied at first and then gave in after repeated calls), but that they did differ significantly on race-related questions.

So the question is, why are response percentages falling?

The simplest answer is that people don’t have the time, and really don’t care about voicing their opinions via polls. Younger people, and by this I simply mean those within the working population, are most likely not going to spend parts of their day answering questions to a poll that plays no part in their everyday lives or well-being. If we follow along these lines, the clearest assumption is that this idea contributes partly to why the elderly are overrepresented. This is not a crack on the elderly, but people who are retired are generally more likely to be willing to take the time to answer survey questions for the simple fact that they are not under the constraints and pressures of an on-going career.
Another idea I have may have to do with the types of polls being conducted. The latest poll on the Washington Post’s polling website reports that American’s economic fears are rising. At first, this seems like something stupid to have a poll about, because it seems obvious that our fears are rising. However, here is my theory on why nonresponse is still a major problem. Polls like this, in a way promote fear, and Americans hate to admit fear. This isn’t really a macho type claim, just my own opinion that in general people do not like to admit they are afraid of something. In a sense, the admittance of fear is almost considered Un-American. This country is based on not being afraid, doing the tough tasks no one else will do, and basically being the cooler older brother to all other countries. One of the most famous sound bites in American history is, “We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.” Why would Americans want to answer a question that promotes our general fear about our countries own problems? Clearly this poll plays well into my theory, but in general negative polls turn people away rather than making them want to respond. I am not saying all polls should be happy in nature, but I would speculate that respondents are lost based on negative tones of polls.
In the end, I have really no idea why response is not the “in” thing to do. All I can really tell you is that, personally, whenever I receive a telephone call asking for a response to a question or am asked on the street to fill out a survey, I never do it. Maybe that makes me a bad person, or Un-American, I don’t know. I can’t even tell you why I don’t answer. Maybe I feel I’m too busy to use part of my day to answer a question. Maybe I feel my answer doesn’t matter and they can get someone else. Maybe I don’t know enough about the subject in question, maybe I know too much. There could be a lot of answers. The only thing I do know is, I’m a relatively normal 20-year-old college student and I know hundreds of other kids just like me on this campus and other campuses on the nation. And if deep down we all have these same maybes floating around our heads, then maybe that’s why nonresponse is such a problem.