MMP Still Leads In Referendum Race

New Zealanders would
choose to retain MMP if the referendum were held today,
according to a UMR Research poll released today. The poll
uses the same wording as will be used in the referendum
scheduled to be held in conjunction with the 2011 election,
and showed that:

- 50% want MMP retained (up 1% since
February last year).

- 40% want to switch to another
electoral system (down 2%) while 10% are unsure.

- Support
for MMP is strongest amongst under 30 year olds (64%) and in
Wellington (65%) and lowest amongst people living in rural
areas (38%) and amongst over 60 year olds (40%).

The
survey also asked the second question from the November
referendum – which system New Zealanders would want if MMP
was dumped:

- The clear favourite is First Past the Post
(40%), well ahead of STV (17%) and the preferential voting
system recently rejected in the UK (8%).

- Supplementary
Member is the system advocated by many of those campaigning
against MMP but only 3% of voters choose that as their
preferred alternative.

- 32% cannot choose a system, and
it seems likely that most people know very little about the
alternative systems other than First Past the Post.

We
also asked New Zealanders a third question – did they want
MMP kept as it is, to keep MMP with some changes or to
switch to a different voting system altogether.

- 68% want
MMP either changed or dumped, including 34% opting to switch
to another system entirely when given these three options
and 34% wanting to retain MMP with some changes.

- 26%
want MMP retained as it is, a 3% increase since February
2010.

The questions were included in UMR’s nationwide
Omnibus survey, a fortnightly telephone poll of a
representative sample of n=750 New Zealanders aged 18 years
and over. The margin of error for a 50% figure at the 95%
confidence level is +3.6%. Fieldwork was conducted between
28 April and 3 May 2011.

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