Seattle , July 22, 2006 (SL Times) – The “prime minister” (Geedi) says that heavily armed Islamic militia have seized Bur Hakaba and are getting ready to attack his “government”. But the minister of women’s affairs Fowsiya Muhammad, who is from Bur Hakaba, says no such thing happened. You will be justified in thinking that the above-mentioned ministers do not serve in the same government, but you will be wrong. They do serve in the same government, one with a long name (the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia) but short, way short, to the point of non-existence, in every other criteria of what a government is supposed to be. For instance, the “Transitional Federal Government of Somalia”, or the “TFG” to make a long boring name short, is so weak that as soon as a handful of hostile militias show up within a few miles from its hole up, some of its prominent members start crying for foreign troops to come and rescue them from being overrun; while others, such as “deputy prime minister” Aidid Jr., say that the “government” should pack its bags and move to the president’s tribal homeland, Garowe, where it is more likely to receive support. This is the dismal picture on the ground.

Internationally speaking, although the “TFG” has received more verbal support from American officials since the Islamic Court’s takeover of most of Mogadishu, than it did in the past, that support has not, so far, translated into actual, tangible terms. The reason for this is simple: there is little or nothing to support. This was the main reason why the US government originally bypassed the “TFG” and preferred to work with Mogadishu’s warlords, as the warlords had clout and muscle in Mogadishu while the “TFG” had none. That fact, the TFG’s weakness, has even changed for the worse since the Islamic Courts took over most of Mogadishu, and it is clear even to casual observers that the TFG has less power vis-à-vis the Islamic Courts than it did vis-à-vis Mogadishu’s warlords.

You would think that someone in this dangerous situation would carefully assess their condition and start making judicious decisions. Not the Baidoa crowd. Instead, they chose this perilous time to pick a fight with one of their partners in crime, a man who claims to be the Italian representative to Somalia, Mario Rafaelli, but whose suspicious activities have attracted the attention of the US Congress. They chose this time to antagonize the Arab League’s point man on Somalia, Mr. Abdalla Mubarak, saying that he favors the Islamic Courts. They chose this time to provoke Somaliland. They chose this time to intensify their in-fighting. And the cumulative result of their folly is that they may be finally running out of time. Jinni Boqor, a member of that useless parliament, admitted as much in a recent interview. Foreigners, too, know this, as evidenced by the following exchange in the US congress:

Congressman Sherman: “..this Baidoa-based transitional government, how much territory does it control?”