Tropical Storm HARVEY

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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005
HARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN...REMAIN AT 3.0...45
KT. HARVEY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 045/11. HARVEY IS MOVING WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY
FROM DAYS 4 TO 5.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.8N 51.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 50.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 48.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0000Z 42.5N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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