Independent Analysis: Trump Budget Plan Would Not Cut Deficit

Sen. Angus King, I-Maine reflects on the news from the Congressional Budget Officeanalysis that could imperil GOP leaders' hopes of pushing their health care the plan through the chamber this week, Tuesday, June 27, 2017, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

In some cases, the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation relied on administration cost-saving estimates for policy proposals that it deemed "achievable targets".

The CBO estimated that Trump's budget would cause the federal budget deficit to shrink relative to the size of the economy over the next 10 years, ranging between 2.6 percent to 3.3 percent of gross domestic product during that period.

The nonpartisan tax and budget analysis agency estimates the White House budget proposalrolled out in May would cut the federal deficit by almost one-third from 2018 to 2027 compared to current baseline projections.

The initial CBO score of the Senate GOP's health care plan to repeal and replace Obamacare, the Better Care Reconciliation Act, predicted that 22 million more Americans would be without insurance, yet reduce the deficit by $321 billion over the next decade.

CBO's conclusion differs from the White House's largely because the CBO - and most economists - project slower economic growth than the administration assumes.

"The reduction in deficits and debt under the president's budget would be achieved by decreasing both mandatory and discretionary spending significantly compared with projections under current law", the CBO said.

The White House is likely to take the CBO projection of Trump's budget proposal with a grain of salt. But it doesn't factor in Trump's tax cuts, since not enough information has been provided. According to the White House the actual figure is just over 10m.

The analysis came as the administration and Republicans controlling the House are struggling to unite Republicans behind an alternative congressional budget plan that's a prerequisite for a hoped-for tax reform effort this fall.

"We are thrilled that CBO confirms that the president's proposed budget resulted in the largest deficit reduction they have ever scored".

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