I had forgotten about that PED suspension. I suppose the O's figured that he had a fantastic year (2015) the year after that suspension so he's probably going to be ok. But, looking at his numbers, it doesn't look like it. That guy is really feast or famine. In 2016 he hit an impressive 38 home runs, but had a total of 84 RBIs and only batted .221. You hit 38 home runs, you should drive in more than 90 runs.

As a secondary point, can anyone name a big contract that has worked out? I mean, how many of these are not busts. The least worst deal that I can think of is the Mets deal with Beltran. He signed a 7 year deal for $119M back in 2005 (which looks like a freaking bargain now). While the Mets never made it past the NLCS with him, he was productive for 6.5 seasons. And then they traded him to the Giants for Zack Wheeler (who was pitching well until he blew out his arm a few years ago and needed TJ surgery, from which he's never really made it back). Beltran's numbers with the Mets were actually better than what he put up with the Royals. So, you can't knock the production, but they didn't win with him (which is not really his fault). But, I can't think of 5+ year contract that was not a disaster. I'll have to give it some thought.

But, I can't think of 5+ year contract that was not a disaster. I'll have to give it some thought.

Jason Werth's wasn't a disaster, per se. He had some injury time, faded the last half of the seven years, and couldn't get the Nats over the NLDS hump. But considering the long-term contract competition, it was a lotto win for the Nationals.

As a secondary point, can anyone name a big contract that has worked out?

I'd have to say the contract the Red Sox signed with Manny Ramirez worked out OK. The contract was 10 years / 200M total -- 8 years guaranteed with 2 club option years. That was a monster contract at the time. He eventually became such a PITA that they had to basically give him away in the middle of year 8 and pay his salary for that year. But they got 7-1/2 very productive years out of him.

I remember when the Red Sox acquired Josh Beckett from the Marlins. After his first spring training start, there was a ginormous media mob camped around his locker. He was probably used to a couple of guys from the local newspaper and TV station scratching themselves and asking him a couple of questions. The look on his face was priceless. "Is this really necessary?", he asked.

Harper strikes me as the type of guy who wouldn't want to put up with that. He'd better take that into consideration before signing to play in a baseball-crazy market. Beckett was never particularly happy here. He just wanted to pitch and go home.

Hall of Famer Willie Keeler died on New Year's Day in 1923. He had 8591 lifetime ABs and struck 136 times in his career. In the three seasons from 1898-1900, in which he had over 1800 plate appearances, he struck out ten times. Maikel Franco routinely reaches that total in a three-game series. Amazing.