The bank’s economists today set out the “the key story behind our economic forecasts for 2014 and beyond”. (Watch out next week for its closely-watched top trade recommendations for 2014, by the way.)

Here are the top ten:

• It’s showtime for the U.S./developed markets recovery

Boom! The bank expects U.S. GDP to accelerate to an annualized 3% plus, with lower growth in Europe but a similar rate of acceleration. While an improving global growth picture has been widely forecast, investors still doubt the recovery, according to the bank, in part because of its stop-start nature and the possibility of a U.S. fiscal logjam early next year.

The note said: “We therefore still see room for markets to price a better cyclical story or, perhaps more accurately, increased confidence that cyclical risk is diminishing. On balance, that should make 2014 another year in which equities and bond yields move higher together.”

• Forward guidance harder in an above-trend world

While growth is likely to improve, G4 central banks – the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank- are likely to continue to suggest that rates will remain on hold for a prolonged period. Goldman Sachs forecasts no hikes until 2016. As growth improves, however, markets will experience bouts of doubt about the commitment to forward guidance, the bank says.

The note said: “We therefore expect to see periods of pressure on rates markets, followed by reassurance from policymakers. As a result, the dance between improving growth and rising rates is likely to remain a key axis in 2014.”

• Earn the developed markets equity risk premium, hedge the risk

“Over the past few years, we have seen very large risk premium compression across a wide range of areas. While not at 2007 levels, credit spreads have narrowed to below long-term averages and asset market volatility has fallen. Even in a friendly growth and policy environment such as the one we anticipate, this is likely to make for lower return prospects (although more appealing in a volatility-adjusted sense). In equities, in particular, the key question we confront is whether a rally can continue given above-average multiples. We think it can.”

• Good carry, bad carry

The desire to earn carry is likely to remain strong through 2014 given the subdued macro volatility, particularly in an environment of better but below-trend growth.

The bank said: “We remain wary of owning assets for carry purposes where we do not think the underlying asset also has scope to appreciate (or a low risk of depreciation). But there may be scope to fund ‘good carry’ out of ‘bad carry’ areas within asset classes: high-yield credits versus investment grade, and the more vulnerable EM credits and currencies against other comparable carry equivalents.”

• The race to the exit kicks off

With the U.S. growth picture improving, the focus on which other central banks may tighten monetary policy is likely to increase. The market is currently pricing a “relatively synchronized exit among the major developed markets”, according to Goldman Sachs, despite the fact that their recovery profiles look different.

“Given that the timing of the first hike has commonly been judged to be some way off, this lack of differentiation is not particularly unusual. But the separation of those who are likely to move early and those who may move later is likely to begin in earnest in 2014.”

• Decision time for the ‘high-flyers’

A number of smaller, open economies have imported easy monetary policy in recent years to offset currency strength, with Norway, Israel and Canada among those to do so. Central banks have generally tolerated signs of emerging pressure, such as house prices appreciating and credit growth picking up, but their view may change as the global growth picture improves.

The report said: “As the developed market growth picture improves, some of these ‘high flyers’ may reassess the balance of risks on this front.”

• Still not your older brother’s EM…

It has been a tough year for emerging market assets, and 2014 is unlikely to see the same level of broad-based pressure. Adjustments in many places are still incomplete, however, with the bank striking a cautious tone and emerging market currencies the point of focus.

The note said: “EM FX is the asset class where we are most cautious, and the bouts of pressure in U.S. rate markets are likely to be reflected here most directly. Although forward FX carry is now generally higher – and hence shorts are more costly – in several countries, we think it does not offer enough protection relative to the fundamental depreciation risks.”

• ….but EM differentiation to continue

Countries with high current account deficits, high inflation and weak institutions were punished more heavily than those with stronger current accounts in 2013′s sell off in emerging markets, and the level of differentiation is likely to be even greater in 2014. Goldman Sachs expects a greater separation between countries with credible tightening policies, such as Brazil and India, and those where imbalances are allowed to grow, such as Turkey.

The bank singled out Venezuela, Argentina and Ukraine as having problematic macro environments.

• Commodity downside risks grow

The bank expects 15% plus declines in prices in gold, copper, iron ore and soybeans. Energy prices, while more stable, also face downside risk which is growing over time.

The note said: “These pressures are also likely to reinforce some of the other core themes discussed here – loosening what has been a key constraint on DM and global growth in recent years, keeping inflation subdued and preventing long rates from rising much above forwards.”

• Stable China may be good enough

While expectations on Chinese growth have reset, even flat growth, at around 7.5%, could be enough to comfort investors relative to their worst fears.

The note said: “At this juncture, the market pricing of China’s growth prospects is negative enough that this stability, alongside an improving external impulse, may be enough to be reassuring.”