Oil ends over 4% higher as U.S. crude supplies fall a sixth week

JennyHsu

Oil futures settled with a gain of more than 4% after U.S. government data revealed a sixth straight weekly decline in domestic crude supplies.

August West Texas Intermediate crude
CLQ6, +0.00%
ended the session at $49.88 a barrel, up $2.03, or 4.2%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the most-active contracts, prices are trading more than 34% higher year to date.

August Brent crude
UK:LCOQ6
on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $2.03, or 4.2%, to $50.61 a barrel, with prices up more than 36% for the year so far.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported early Wednesday that domestic crude supplies fell by 4.1 million barrels for the week ended June 24. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday had reported a 3.9 million-barrel drop, according to sources, while analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expected a decline of 2.4 million barrels.

Total U.S. production fell by 55,000 barrels to 8.622 million barrels a day, EIA data showed.

The output declines “accelerated for the third week in a row…albeit only slightly with output in the lower 48 [states] falling another 29,000 barrels a day last week,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of The 7:00’s Report.

But “with more and more rigs coming online in recent weeks according to the [Baker Hughes] weekly rig count, it seems as though U.S. production may actually begin to rise again as we continue through the summer,” he said.

If that happens, Richey expects oil prices to retreat back into the low to mid $40s, “with the potential for WTI to trade with a $30 handle again before the fall.”

Gasoline supply up

Gasoline supplies climbed 1.4 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles declined by 1.8 million barrels last week, according to the EIA. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts were looking for a drawdown of 600,000 barrels for gasoline and a fall of 1 million barrels for distillates, which include heating oil.

An unexpected build in gasoline could limit gains in the oil market, but “some overseas supply disruptions could help give prices a bid,” said John Macaluso, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors.

On Nymex, July gasoline
US:RBN6
rose 1.5 cents, or 1%, to $1.525 a gallon, while July heating oil
US:HON6
added 6.2 cents, or 4.2%, to $1.534 a gallon.

Oil prices have generally rallied since the first quarter due to unplanned supply outages, such as wildfires in Canada, strikes in Kuwait and France, economic woes in Venezuela, and political upheavals in Nigeria and Libya.

Oil production in Norway might be constrained as up to 7,500 oil and gas workers are threatening to stage a strike if a new wage deal isn't agreed before midnight on July 1. Norway produced about 2.1% of the world’s oil output in May, according to the International Energy Agency.

“While Norway may face some supply disruptions as workers prepare to strike, Nigeria production is slowly coming back to the market,” said Macaluso.

“The significance of Nigerian production is directly tied to an inevitable price war between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” he said. “Iran picked up most of the lost production from Nigeria as they attempt to produce at pre-sanction levels.”

Brent oil prices had dropped to a seven-week low on Monday as Britain’s decision last week to leave the European Union raised concerns over a potential slowdown in energy demand.

Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, moved lower Wednesday, with the August contract
US:NGQ16
on its first full day as a front-month contract, settling at $2.863 per million British thermal units, down 2.7 cents, or 0.9%, after a 5.4% rally a day earlier.

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