Thai Protesters to Disrupt Polls as Yingluck Rejects Delay

Yingluck Shinawatra, Thailand's prime minister, center, leaves the venue of a meeting she had with election officials at the Army Club in Bangkok on Jan. 28, 2014. Photographer: Christophe Archambault/AFP/Getty Images

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Thai anti-government protesters said
they plan to disrupt elections this weekend as part of a three-month campaign to unseat Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and
dismantle her brother’s political network.

Suthep Thaugsuban, a former opposition Democrat party
politician, urged supporters to block polling stations on Feb. 2
after Yingluck rejected a proposal from the Election Commission
to delay the vote until political tensions ease.

“We will do everything to prevent the election from
happening,” Suthep told supporters late yesterday in Bangkok.
“We don’t want Yingluck and her people to use the election as a
way to extend their power. We will continue to shut down Bangkok
by preventing state offices from reopening.”

Suthep, a former deputy prime minister, wants to replace
Yingluck’s caretaker administration with an unelected council
that would rewrite electoral rules to erase the influence of her
brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, whose allies have won the past five
elections. The Democrats have lost every national poll over the
past two decades and plan to boycott the vote.

The government imposed a state of emergency in Bangkok Jan.
22 after an escalation of violence that has killed 10 people and
injured more than 570 since protests began Oct. 31, according to
figures compiled by the Bangkok Emergency Medical Center. Suthep
has refused offers from Yingluck to negotiate and has vowed to
maintain a blockade of major Bangkok intersections that began
Jan. 13 until she resigns.

Serious Damage

The Election Commission yesterday urged the government to
defer the poll for three to four months after one person was
killed during early voting last weekend.

“Delaying the election won’t solve any problems,” Deputy
Prime Minister Pongthep Thepkanjana said at a media briefing.
“People who are creating the problems didn’t say they would
stop if we delay the vote. A long postponement could seriously
damage the nation.”

The SET Index of stocks fell 0.1 percent to 1,270.76 as of
10:47 a.m. in Bangkok. The gauge has slumped 12 percent since
the unrest began, the most among Asian benchmarks, and the baht
has fallen more than 5 percent against the dollar.

“Investors are really concerned,” Viwat Techapoonpol, an
investment strategist at Tisco Securities Co. in Bangkok, said
by phone. “The vote will further prolong the current political
crisis, which will significantly affect economic growth. This
political risk has driven most investors to reduce their
investments in the Thai stock market before the economic
slowdown further hurts company earnings.”

The central bank unexpectedly held its key interest rate
last week, even as it cut its growth forecast for 2014. The
nation’s economic fundamentals are strong enough to weather
“short-term risks,” Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said.

Rice Subsidy

Yingluck’s administration also faces legal challenges,
including an investigation by the National Anti-Corruption
Commission into losses from a state rice subsidy program, which
could lead to her being impeached.

The government has spent $21 billion in the past two crop
years starting October 2011 buying rice from farmers at above-market rates. The program accumulated losses of 200 billion baht
($6.1 billion) a year, according to estimates from the World
Bank.

The Election Commission argued that parliament won’t
achieve the quorum needed to reopen even if the election goes
ahead because candidates in some southern provinces were unable
to register for the poll amid the blockade by protesters. The
commission refused to allow candidates to register at
alternative locations including local police stations.

‘Different View’

“Parliament can’t be opened for at least three to four
months after the election if we are lucky, or longer if we are
not,” Commissioner Somchai Srisuthiyakorn said after meeting
Yingluck yesterday. “The EC will go ahead with the election
because the government has a different view.”

The Constitutional Court ruled Jan. 24 that the vote could
be delayed and that Yingluck and the commission have the power
to set a new date. The government has said there is no precedent
for setting a new election date unless a court annuls the
results of a poll, and its only option is to proceed.

About two million people who couldn’t access polling
stations on Jan. 26 for advance voting in 83 constituencies
because of protests will need to vote again after the general
election, Somchai said.

“The EC will do the best we can,” he said. “We have
warned the government that violence may occur and there may be
problems with the election result. The government needs to take
responsibility for this.”

Final Push

The government has argued that disruptions to early voting
occurred in Bangkok and in some southern provinces, and more
than 90 percent of the country remains unaffected by protests.

As Suthep’s campaign to shut down central Bangkok enters a
third week, he called on supporters to wage a final push during
the election to oust Yingluck.

The protesters, mostly middle-class Bangkokians and
Democrat party supporters from southern provinces, accuse
Yingluck of being a puppet for Thaksin, who faces a two-year
jail term for corruption if he returns in a case he says was
politically motivated. They argue reform is needed because
Thaksin and his allies are corrupt and their populist policies
damage the economy while allowing them to secure an electoral
majority.

“We need to fight harder to end this battle as soon as
possible because prolonging it could cause significant damage to
the economy,” Suthep said. “We hope to end the fight and
achieve our goal of setting up a new political reform council
soon. The time is near.”