Power Bars FX

In the last months of development and trading we found out how much timing has a huge importance in trading and can make the difference between a winning trade and a loosing one.

The problem is that most of the trading strategies rely on one timeframe, or at least one timeframe at a time.

So far we’ve been able to do a multi currency analysis but we have done a step further: multi-currency and multi-timeframe.

PowerBarsFX is the name of set of indicators that has the best of everything we learned and know so far, in it.

That’s why we think it’s really the best indicator we’ve seen so far. At least our best indicator

PowerbarsFX indicators are aimed at giving a graphical representation of how single currencies are “moving” in all timeframes, from the faster ones to the slower ones.

Here’s a picture of “PowerbarsFX Currency” heatmap:

For each of the 8 major currencies it shows you the “powerscore” for 5 different timeframes. In the example above from M15 to D1 but you can apply it to any timeframe you like. The greener the bar, the stronger the currency. The redder the bar the weaker the currency. The white color means the currency is neither strong nor weak. The black lines show the boundary between trading days, so in the image above you are watching how the currencies behaved in the last 5 days of trading. Of course you can zoom in and out as you want.

This is a really powerful view!

But to put things together we developed an indicator averaging the score in 5 timeframes (by default from the 15M to the 1D). This gives a very good overview of the currency strength/weakness. By giving the same weight (importance) to each of the timeframes we have reached our goal of timed signals.

Here’s what the “PowerBarsFX MTF Currency” looks like if you put the indicator on the same chart showing the average powerscore for each of the 8 major currencies:

Perfect overview of the Forex market conditions.

But for trading what we need more is to know the “spread” between the MTF scores. The “PowerBarsFX Spread” is what we need for trading. It calculates the difference between the MTF scores of the two currencies involved in a currency pair. When you apply this indicator to any currency pair it shows what’s behind the moves the pair is doing and so it can give you information about when to enter, eventually when to increase/decrease your position size and possibly when to close and reverse the open positions.

Here’s how the “PowerlinesFX Spread” looks like:

In order to prove that the signals coming from the “PowerBarsFX Spread” indicator are actually good we put it under astress test on 10 major currency pairs to see how the most basic trading strategy (a classic “always in the market” stop&reverse strategy) performs under these strict conditions. Honestly the results are nothing short of exceptional:

The backtests were performed from the 9th of April 2012 to the 24th of July 2012 (roughly 3 months and a half), since we checked the full availability of data in this range. The vast majority of months were profitable for these pairs. We applied a fixed typical spread for each pair when computing these results.

And here is the trading strategy we used: “buy when PowerBarsFX Spread >= 20; stop&reverse when PowerBarsFX Spread <= -20″. Obviously a strategy so simple can only work if the underlying indicator is really smart. AndPowerBarsFX – being both multi-currency and multi-timeframe – is undoubtedly smart The picture below illustrates the typical trades executed with this strategy:

This is only the tip of the iceberg of course, but if we apply this basic strategy to the 4 best pairs we end up with a pretty cool system delivering an average 2090 pips per month with an impressive 4.35 profit factor:

At this point you may agree with us that PowerBarsFX IS the best indicator ever

If we look at the following pictures we can realize the backtests had to face pretty different price action scenarios and they came up with positive pips each month nonetheless. This is surely a proof that PowerBarsFX is a pretty solid indicator with lots of profit potential.

We also performed a classic “edge ratio analysis” on PowerBarsFX Spread, by evaluating how much price moves in favor of a trade (MFE = maximum favorable excursion) and how much it moves against the trade (MAE = maximum adverse excursion) when the indicator signals a new entry. After a trade is opened I measured MFE and MAE (as number of pips) until the next trade in the opposite direction is signalled. This analysis shows that even trades ending up as losers (according with the basic stop&reverse strategy) often have a considerable profit potential (MFE greater than MAE or similar to MAE), therefore they may be actually converted into winning trades when using a different (more sophisticated) exit strategy. The pictures below illustrates the actual trades under analysis for EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and EURJPY: