Wednesday, June 25, 2008

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!NL Central Update

Team

W

L

PCT

GB

RS*

RS/G*

RA*

RA/G*

Pwins

W%for90

XtrapW

CHN

48

28

0.632

0.0

406

5.34

297

3.91

49

0.488

102

STL

44

33

0.571

4.5

362

4.70

338

4.39

41

0.541

93

MIL

42

34

0.553

6.0

344

4.52

343

4.51

38

0.558

90

PIT

36

40

0.474

12.0

374

4.92

418

5.50

34

0.628

77

HOU

35

41

0.461

13.0

332

4.37

369

4.86

34

0.640

75

CIN

35

42

0.455

13.5

328

4.26

370

4.81

34

0.647

74

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

...does it really matter at this point? The Reds are in last place, 13.5 out, went 2-4 over the past week, are last in the division in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed (almost a full run more per game than the Cubs).....Division rankings haven't changed, though Milwaukee went on a 6-1 surge to close a bit, while the Cubs gained a game on the Cards...The Cubs continue to be on pace for 100+ wins...

Hitting

Last

First

PA

BB%

K%

%LD

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

OPS

PrOPS

lwts_RC

R/G

RAR

Dunn

Adam

294

21%

26%

16%

0.235

0.219

0.384

0.491

0.272

0.875

1.017

44.4

6.44

18.9

Votto

Joey D

272

9%

18%

26%

0.324

0.293

0.357

0.500

0.207

0.857

0.896

40.9

6.14

16.3

Phillips

Brandon

321

7%

16%

17%

0.286

0.271

0.321

0.488

0.217

0.809

0.802

44.1

5.31

13.4

Hairston

Jerry

142

6%

14%

31%

0.390

0.336

0.382

0.480

0.144

0.862

0.751

24.4

7.11

11.7

Encarnacion

Edwin

290

10%

17%

14%

0.254

0.241

0.324

0.447

0.206

0.771

0.808

36.8

4.93

9.2

Griffey Jr.

Ken

296

15%

15%

17%

0.269

0.249

0.358

0.402

0.153

0.760

0.823

34.3

4.74

7.5

Keppinger

Jeff S

167

7%

5%

19%

0.324

0.322

0.370

0.441

0.119

0.811

0.781

22.2

5.51

7.3

Bruce

Jay A

114

11%

22%

25%

0.366

0.300

0.386

0.470

0.170

0.856

0.875

16.8

6.30

6.9

Freel

Ryan

143

6%

13%

20%

0.342

0.298

0.340

0.359

0.061

0.699

0.666

15.1

4.18

1.8

Cabrera

Jolbert

20

10%

20%

23%

0.500

0.389

0.450

0.444

0.055

0.894

0.678

3.0

7.27

1.5

Bako

Paul

195

10%

26%

20%

0.288

0.230

0.306

0.385

0.155

0.691

0.764

19.7

3.81

0.6

Ross

Dave

89

16%

20%

19%

0.296

0.233

0.356

0.315

0.082

0.671

0.733

8.6

3.90

0.5

Hopper

Norris S

42

7%

5%

21%

0.265

0.250

0.325

0.250

0.000

0.575

0.760

3.7

3.30

-0.4

Phillips

Andy A

23

9%

17%

18%

0.176

0.143

0.217

0.190

0.047

0.407

0.633

0.7

0.97

-1.9

Castro

Juan

11

9%

0%

10%

0.000

0.000

0.091

0.000

0.000

0.091

0.647

-0.7

-1.72

-2.1

Valentin

Javier

59

7%

15%

9%

0.261

0.222

0.271

0.278

0.056

0.549

0.557

4.0

2.42

-2.1

Hatteberg

Scott

61

11%

11%

19%

0.191

0.173

0.262

0.231

0.058

0.493

0.701

2.9

1.72

-3.4

Janish

Paul

67

7%

22%

23%

0.239

0.180

0.254

0.197

0.017

0.451

0.640

2.4

1.27

-4.6

Patterson

Corey

192

4%

11%

14%

0.182

0.189

0.222

0.344

0.155

0.566

0.723

14.5

2.54

-6.6

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

Reds' team linear weights total 338, which is 10 more than they've actually scored.....Dunn's slumping, but continues to have been the most productive offensive player on the team.....Votto had a heck of a week, though, and almost closed the gap.....Jay Bruce is slumping a bit too, and with the small sample sizes saw his OPS fall from a Bruceian 0.998 to a fairly mundane 0.856.....Paul Bako has now officially fallen to below 1 run above replacement on offense, and is actually being out-"hit" by David Ross on a rate basis, but as you'll see his defense keeps him an above-replacement level contributers for now.....

Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last

First

Pos

RAR

Fielding

PosAdj

TtlValue

Votto

Joey D

1B

16.3

7.6

-3.6

20.4

Phillips

Brandon

2B

13.4

6.2

0.4

20.1

Dunn

Adam

LF

18.9

-2.1

-2.5

14.4

Hairston

Jerry

SS

11.7

-2.4

0.7

9.9

Bruce

Jay A

RF

6.9

0.4

-0.2

7.2

Encarnacion

Edwin

3B

9.2

-3.0

0.4

6.6

Bako

Paul

C

0.6

1.9

3.1

5.6

Keppinger

Jeff S

SS

7.3

-3.5

1.2

5.0

Cabrera

Jolbert

SS

1.5

1.9

0.2

3.5

Freel

Ryan

CF

1.8

-1.4

0.2

0.6

Ross

Dave

C

0.5

-2.1

1.3

-0.4

Griffey Jr.

Ken

RF

7.5

-5.7

-2.2

-0.4

Castro

Juan

SS

-2.1

1.5

0.1

-0.5

Hopper

Norris S

LF

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

-0.6

Phillips

Andy A

3B

-1.9

0.4

0.0

-1.5

Patterson

Corey

CF

-6.6

3.5

1.0

-2.2

Valentin

Javier

C

-2.1

-1.2

0.3

-3.0

Hatteberg

Scott

1B

-3.4

0.4

-0.5

-3.6

Janish

Paul

SS

-4.6

-1.2

0.6

-5.2

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds' total fielding numbers sum to 1 run above average...I'm just as surprised by that as you, and THT's team stats still have the Reds a tick below average on defense...but Brandon Phillips, Votto, and Corey Patterson have all been pretty darn good in the field.....Votto's hot offense and surprisingly-good fielding brings him to the top of the list, followed closely by Brandon Phillips.....Dunn's slump with the stick draws him down to a fairly distant third.....By my estimates, the Reds currently have nine players who have contributed below replacement-level performances so far this season...that includes Ken Griffey Jr, who has hit 0.261/0.363/0.426 (an 0.789 OPS) in 553 AB's since June 24th of last year (thanks, fangraphs)...I love the guy, love his career, and think he is one of the best of his generation and a shoe-in hall of famer...but he has absolutely no business being a presumptive All-Star starting outfielder this year...

Pitching

Last

First

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

HR/F

%GB

BABIP

ERA

FIP

OPSa

BsR

BsR/G

RAR

FIPRAR

Volquez

Edinson

95.0

10.4

4.3

0.3

5%

51%

0.275

1.71

2.65

0.560

27.4

2.59

32.3

27.7

Cordero

Francisco

32.7

9.6

5.0

0.8

10%

41%

0.225

2.76

3.76

0.596

11.5

3.18

9.7

3.2

Harang

Aaron

106.0

7.7

2.0

1.3

11%

33%

0.322

4.33

3.60

0.794

57.8

4.91

8.8

19.7

Cueto

Johnny

91.7

7.9

3.3

1.8

17%

37%

0.280

5.01

4.76

0.803

52.5

5.15

5.1

5.2

Burton

Jared

39.3

9.4

3.0

0.7

8%

52%

0.306

2.52

2.87

0.655

16.1

3.69

4.4

6.3

Bray

Bill P

22.7

8.3

4.8

0.4

5%

37%

0.292

2.38

3.24

0.660

9.6

3.79

2.3

2.7

Thompson

Daryl M

5.0

3.6

7.2

0.0

0%

31%

0.250

0.00

4.58

0.642

2.0

3.53

1.2

0.4

Lincoln

Mike

34.7

7.3

2.3

1.8

30%

60%

0.255

4.93

4.72

0.756

17.3

4.49

0.8

-1.6

Mercker

Kent

13.7

3.9

5.3

0.7

7%

40%

0.279

3.29

4.72

0.750

6.6

4.35

0.5

-0.6

Majewski

Gary W

7.7

5.8

3.5

1.2

12%

48%

0.333

4.70

4.78

0.830

4.6

5.37

-0.6

-0.4

Herrera

Daniel R.

3.0

12.0

3.0

3.0

94%

56%

0.375

9.00

5.28

0.972

2.5

7.63

-1.0

-0.3

Coffey

Todd

15.3

2.9

3.5

1.8

26%

55%

0.278

6.46

6.03

0.879

10.4

6.14

-2.5

-2.9

Affeldt

Jeremy

36.0

9.8

3.5

1.5

21%

55%

0.333

4.50

3.96

0.807

21.5

5.37

-2.7

1.4

Weathers

David

28.0

5.8

4.5

1.6

18%

42%

0.273

3.86

5.43

0.822

17.7

5.68

-3.1

-3.5

Arroyo

Bronson

86.0

8.5

3.3

1.5

16%

37%

0.342

5.55

4.25

0.855

57.2

5.99

-3.2

9.7

Belisle

Matt

29.7

4.2

1.8

1.2

14%

51%

0.364

7.28

4.25

0.914

23.5

7.13

-4.9

3.4

Bailey

Homer

12.3

2.2

7.3

4.4

30%

37%

0.227

8.76

10.74

1.138

13.9

10.17

-6.2

-7.5

Fogg

Josh

28.3

5.4

3.2

2.2

17%

38%

0.317

9.85

6.00

0.964

24.1

7.67

-9.4

-5.3

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

It's amazing to see the dropoff between Volquez's performance and the rest of the pitching staff.....Harang has struggled of late, but his FIP remains very strong and among the league leaders.....Arroyo has shown a similar difference between his ERA and FIP nearly all season, though today's outing (which is not included in these stats) won't help his cause with either statistic.....Cueto's two recent outings have his FIP back under 5...I hope the kid goes on a decent little tear here.

Overall, the Reds Base Runs sum to 376 runs, which is 6 more than they've actually allowed. Combined with their lwts-estimated 338 runs scored in the Pythagorean equation gives an estimated winning percentage of 0.447, which indicates that the Reds are probably about a game "lucky" thus far in the standings.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.