On Booing Jayson Werth, Forest Fires, and the Brian Clough Approach

“The age of miracles,
The age of sound,
Well there’s a golden age,
Comin’ round, comin’ round, comin’ round.”

-“Golden Age,” TV on the Radio, 2008.

I think I’m falling into a trap where a post that starts with an epigraph identifies potential profundity in what follows. Either that or I want everyone to be aware that I’m so hip and with it that I can quote songs by cool underground bands that haven’t been particularly cool or underground in several years.

Neither is this post truly about booing Jayson Werth. I’m puzzled by why someone with even a modicum of intelligence and empathy who’s paid attention at all to the situation would hold Werth’s signing with Washington against him. A friend of mine who’s a huge Werth fan sent me a text message during last night’s game, apoplectic about the Phillies fans in Washington who were booing Werth and holding signs calling him a mercenary or worse, all the while cheering Cliff Lee, who took a richer contract, per year, than did Werth.

The fact is that Washington offered Werth a contract that, based on his age, past performance, and other offers available, the Phillies would have to be crazy to match and Werth himself would have to be crazy to turn down. Likewise, Lee was willing to sign for well below market value, and the Phillies would have been crazy not to sign him. There ought not to be any normative value to that chain of events, and I’m not sure what people are thinking when they make normative statements about it.

The fact is, also, that I’m absolutely sick and tired of talking about Jayson Werth, who, as a former Phillies outfielder, is only marginally more relevant to the Phillies in 2011 and beyond than other former Phillies outfielders, such as Jason Michaels or Michael Bourn. Or Sliding Billy Hamilton. So let’s move on past the SEO-friendly title.

Brian Clough was an English soccer manager from the mid-60s to the early 1990s who specialized in making small clubs overachieve. He twice won the English First Division (now the Premier League), twice won back to back League Cup (now Carling Cup) titles, and won back-to-back European Cup (now UEFA Champions League) titles, all with clubs that now reside in the second tier of English soccer.

He achieved this success buy employing a proto-Moneyball strategy of acquiring undervalued (and ideally younger) players, developing them, and selling them at the peak of their value, then using the profits to finance the acquisition of still younger and better players. I’ve discussed him before in this space, so I don’t want to go into too much detail. The key to long-term success in sports is not, as it turns out, hanging onto your star players. It is, rather, the opposite: getting rid of your star players at the right time and rebuilding gradually and incrementally.

There’s that oft-cited axiom about forests and how they need to burn down periodically in order to grow. Or something like that–ecology was never my strong suit. The point is, without continued and managed roster turnover, a team grows old, expensive, and stagnant, and will eventually collapse.

The best examples of this phenomenon in baseball are, unsurprisingly, the three teams that have had sustained success in the past two decades: the Yankees, Braves, and Red Sox. Let’s look at all three teams at the start of their recent runs (1995 for the Yankees, 1991 for the Braves, and 2003 for the Red Sox), at an intermediate point (2001 for the Yankees, 1999 for the Braves, and 2007 for the Red Sox), and at an endpoint (2009 for the Yankees, 2005 for the Braves, and 2011 for the Red Sox) to see how they’ve changed.

First of all, I’ll absolutely admit to playing the Arbitrary Endpoints Game here. Second, yes, any team is going to undergo a major roster overhaul every six to eight years. My point is, the Yankees, in 1995, had enough foresight to say, “If we want to contend in 2009, we’ve got to be aware of the shelf life of a major league player and make plans to replace him.” If the Yankees had clung to Ruben Sierra the way the Phillies might have clung to Jayson Werth, they’d have been in big trouble. (And if you think I’m being unfair, Jayson Werth through age 31: .272/.367/.481. Sierra through age 31: .269/.318/.451. But for 25 walks a year, they’re not wholly dissimilar players.)

As a result, the Yankees kept three starters from 1995 to 2001: Pettitte, Williams, and O’Neill, and for starters from 2001 to 2009: Pettitte, Jeter, Posada, and Rivera. Though maybe this illustrates that the secret to winning in the long-term is to bring up four perennial all-stars from the minors at the same time, then spend $200 million a year to sand out the rough edges. So let’s move on to the Braves.

Two holdovers from 1991 to 1999 (Glavine and Smoltz), and only three from 1999 to 2005, their last division title (Smoltz and the Joneses). One of the beautiful things about this team was how seamlessly Mark Lemke turned into Brett Boone turned into Quilvio Veras turned into Marcus Giles, and so on. The Braves drafted Chipper Jones in 1990, made the World Series in 1991 with two future Hall of Fame pitchers, aged 24 and 25, signed a third 26-year-old future Hall of Famer in December 1992, and just sort of put it on cruise control from there. This was the 1985 Toyota Corolla of baseball teams–it just ran, inexorably, for 15 years, and all you needed to do was change the oil and spark plugs every so often.

This was a much shorter-term project than the first two, but the overhaul is staggering year-to-year, particularly considering that Dice-K, Papelbon, Ortiz, and Drew are all on their way out. The Red Sox were not afraid to rid themselves of popular and effective players when their value had peaked: Pedro, Nomar, Manny, and Keith Foulke come to mind. The key, once again, is bringing up that great class of minor leaguers to replace the outgoing veterans who got the team to the top in the first place. It could be the case that in 2015, an outfield of Brown/James/Singleton has made us all forget the Victorino/Rowand/Burrell or Werth/Victorino/Ibanez outfields that brought the Phillies to prominence.

The Phillies are actually not doing as bad a job of this as you might think. Last night’s stellar (and it’s hard to overstate the difficulty of pitching a complete game and striking out 12 batters in 100 pitches or less) performance by Cliff Lee registered a game score of 92, tied for third-highest by a Phillie since 2000, behind only the no-hitters of Roy Halladay and Kevin Millwood. Since 2000, a Phillies starter has registered a game score of 80 or higher 63 times. Rather than the list reading “Hamels/Myers/Wolf” repeated over and over, 20 different pitchers are on the list, led by Hamels’ 11.

I guess the point in all of this is that getting rid of Thome, Rowand, and Werth was the right move. The same would be true for Bobby Abreu if they’d gotten anything of value for him. And if Brad Lidge and Jimmy Rollins walk in free agency this winter, so be it. If, in 2014 they can cash in Cliff Lee in a trade for the next incarnation of Buster Posey, it must be done. The point is not what a player’s accomplished in the past–it’s about his perceived value now and what he can do in the future.

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0 Comments

I couldn’t agree more about
A.-that guy- we’re both sick and tired of talking about
B. Everything in the third paragraph

Good job in the comparisons, and yes they’re not doing as bad a job of turning it over as it seems. They can do better, but doing pretty well. RAJ seems to love Rule 5 and taking chances on mid to late twenties projects, over the younger guys. But so far, it works for him.

In a different sport, I would bring up the model of the New England Patriots, who always seem to jettison their guys just at the right time, have plenty of draft picks every year, and are serious contenders every year. The Eagles do this very well too.

Burning down the whole forest and growing it back is what the Marlins do, the Patriots burn small lots of vegetation, while planting seeds in other lots, maintaining a strong and youthful base.

I agree with “why boo J-Dubs”? Not sure why fans take it personally when a player leaves…especially for the money he was offered. He was an essential player for the teams success each of the past three years and he got his payday for it. I do boo former players at times…it just the ones that somehow pissed me off. Rolen and JD Drew come to mind. Burrell, Rowand, Myers, Werth, and even Dobbs tonight… I will applaud.

all I have to say is that Werth was worth it……..Lee wasn’t! Philly made a big mistake by not offering Werth more $ to stay….instead they gave to Lee!!! Lets see him prove himself!!! Hope Werth does well with Washington, he is a great player!

I’m… pretty sure you didn’t read any of this article based on this comment.

Literally the entire point was talking about how letting Werth walk was “werth” it in the grand scheme of things, allowing younger blood to take his place and improving the club in different ways. The article dealt with the logistical impact of moving/losing a player rather than the monetary side of trading/losing players to free agency (which, honestly, has been overhashed anyway)!

Being Female, Jayson holds a special “affection” not for his play though! Still wear my Jayson rings my bell shirt 🙂 I can honestly say in my 43yrs I have never booed any Philly player, I can’t do what they do so refrain from judging to critically. I was saddened by the Boo’s that Cole received because everyone knows if it was anyone but Cole pitching there wouldn’t have been any. Sure I get upset with them, sure I’d love to know how we can pay someone that much money and them not perform every single night. In the end I love my team, past, present and future.

I’d recommend to everyone reading, watch the movie The Damned United – the story of this guy, Brian Clough. Mike is right, there is a lot that can be learned here…imagine the Moneyball approach – but actually winning a World Series too. That’s what this guy did. Well I should say these guys….you can’t mention Brian Clough’s player picking genius without giving a hat tip to his mate Peter Taylor.

Personally, as a long-time Phillies fan I was embarrassed at last night’s game. A few booed Jayson when he came out onto the field but as the evening progressed and as more beer was consumed, the booing and chanting turned ugly and filled with profanity. Not a good way to represent your city and your team.
Thanks for reminding people that if Werth had stayed with the Phillies, the door would not have been open for Cliff Lee to return.

Old Cholly encouraged Werth to take the money and run. It is baseball culture these days. Cliff Lee was an exception. But his pay days are rich, I assure. Moreover, he and his family get to feast on the best hoagies and pizza in the world, not to mention fabulous victuals from restaurants representing other nations.Moreover, we really are the greatest fans in the universe right here in Philly. Jayson will miss us. You cat your bottom dollar on that. Regarding booing, I believe in it at times. Players expect it. As long as we keep it as boos only — no cursing, name calling or throwing objects at players. We pay the bill and we should be allowed to show our displeasure. It is our right as paying fans.

As for Werth, I sat out by the contingent of Phillies fans and I too was slightly embarrassed. How can you get on this guy for taking the money? EVERY SINGLE PERSON WOULD DO THE SAME. And the players union would never let him walk from that kind of cash. Cliff Lee took $10-20 million less over an enormous contract- which still looks find because its got the richest AAV of any pitcher. Werth’s only offer above $100 million was likely Washington.

Errrrrrr! Okay I’ll have to take the bait (on the guy I no longer want to talk about)

Hands were tied? Excuse me??????
He had a responsibility to himself and his family if that’s what you mean.

I sincerely hope you’re not implying that his hands were tied by Scott Boras, or by the union, or by his responsibility to fellow players. Because that’s a bunch of BS, and if true, I’ll boo him from now on too.

He had a responsibility to himself and his family, and a right to do what he could for them, that’s all. I can accept that, and wish him the best. I can accept- only that.

Coming from England, I know an awful lot about Brian Clough and the soccer teams he managed. It wasn’t so much a ‘moneyball’ type approach, rather one of knowing exactly which players he needed to turn his team into champions, and his magnificant man management skills. For example he signed Dave McKay, who was nearing the end of his career, for next to nothing as he was the midfielder he knew he needed. Obviously time will tell as to whether Werth or Lee was what this Phillies team needed, but i think with Brown and Francisco in waiting letting Werth go was the right decision. Anyhow, a great post with great insight.

Ladies, please stop. Yeah lemme see, pay Halladay 20 mil or Werth who ya gonna take? Lee or Werth, hmmmm. Dom Brown waiting… Ben Fran waiting, Jayson is cute, Jayson should have been paid 127 mil, Jayson plays more games than Lee and Doc, , Jayson IS NOT WORTH 127 MILLION DOLLARS. Halladay is. Lee is, Howard is, Just because A guy dont play every game, dont mean he isnt a vital peice. Werth is a Nat now, he is appreciated for what he did, but hes not a Phillie anymore. He said he hates the Phils too. Had he not said that, he would have gotten cheered. Before that came out, everyone said theyd cheer him except the idiots that think it was personal, he left he got a good deal, he got overpaid, the Phils did right by not offering some obscene amount, because he was never worth that much to begin with. 80 million was fair. But dont blame Jayson for taking it, this is his only pay day he will get like this. Also, dont blame the fans for getting booing for Jayson saying he hates the Phils too.

Awww Bus let us ladies enjoy the old view in right field, cute is very important in sports LOL. I’m not someone who boos and I’m not some who holds a big grudge… Jayson did what he wanted to do. That is not a reason to boo and swear at the man. Honestly I would take the money… Anyone have 100mm to give me?? LOL

I just don’t understand why the Phans are booing Jayson, it’s absolutely ridiculous!
Just disrespectful to Jayson and it makes the phans look really petty and stupid!
Will always love Jayson and don’t care what team he is on.

GO PHILLIES!!!!

ps to the poster who said that Lee is not worth the money, you have no idea what you are talking about…LEE the best Christmas present ever!!!!!!

I think its impossible to say every single person would do the same, and take the money. There are some people who would much rather have a shot at winning a (or another for Werth) WS ring. I can’t say I see the Nationals making a play for the WS anytime in the next 7 years. I dont see how they will have the money to keep adding players. There revenue is pretty low seeing the small amounts of fans at the park usually. I dont really hold a grudge for taking the money. The only thing I hold against him is his choice in representation. I find Scott Boras to be greedy low class punk, but thats just me. Obviously he is very good at his job, and to a certain extent, would love to see even 1/4 of a Boras Paycheck, but with some of the stories article and posts I have read about him, I cant stand the guy. I think there are certain things Werth had said about the Phillies after he left, but he was no where near as vindictive or down right rude as certain other players who have not been re-signed by the Phillies, but that could also be because they at least offered him a nice paycheck, just not as nice and the insanely STUPID contract he received from the Nationals. I can’t say I would boo him, but I am going to cheer for him in another uniform. LOL.