Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Saturday, May 21, 2016

The US election . . ..

. . . has taken a remarkable turn. The sudden impetus of Trump has led me to a working hypothesis in which the Deep State has decided to abruptly vomit the neocons out of the political system.

Consider--the neocons supported Rubio, but they probably could have lived with just about any GOP candidate except for Donald Trump. Although Trump said a lot of alarming things, he did give the impression that he would talk to "enemies" of America, and in fact, seemed to be of the opinion that whatever deals might be made would have to benefit both sides (as they would in business). Since neocon ideology is centered on the notion that no countries other than America can have legitimate national interests that conflict with the goals of America, any reasonable agreement with Russia, or China, or Iran, etc. would be dismissed as appeasement. The neocons clearly had no future in a Trump administration. Once it became clear that Trump was likely to win the Republican nomination, noted neocons like Robert Kagan began to abandon ship and jump to the Clinton campaign.

Such is the state of politics in the US--at least to an outsider. It is so polarized that it is difficult for me to imagine that they would maintain any credibility jumping from one party to another. If Clinton does win, things will probably still work out for Kagan and crew.

But the tenor of the press seems to have changed in the last few weeks. Outside of the Washington Post, newspaper articles are starting to look at the possibility of a Trump presidency, and stories about weakness on the Clinton side are also appearing. To me it looks like Trump has come to some sort of accommodation with the Deep State, and Clinton may be on her way out. Taking the neocons with her.

This should at last finish them off. Future Democratic contenders will be far less likely to burden themselves with Kagan and company, and I wouldn't think the Republicans will take them back after their betrayal.

17 Contenders - the story of the 2016 election (stills from 14 Blades)

Our story begins as Donald Trump and sixteen other contenders vie to become the Republican presidential candidate.