More Smally Brewers Association Thoughts

If there is "crafty" then one would expect there is also "smally" right? Apparently, the US lobby group the Brewers Association is out to prove just that with this weird blurt issued today. It's an argument made against the discussion about the implications of expanding craft brewery growth in the US which includes at its heart the following:

...First, let’s define a bubble. A bubble is a period of overinvestment where asset prices aren’t aligned with reality. In other words, people are betting on a future that won’t exist....What evidence is there that craft is in a similar situation; that brewers and investors are betting more than they should on a future that won’t exist? Before answering this question, we can compare the current growth in the number of breweries to a real bubble... This leads me directly to my second point: everyone should stop talking and/or worrying about the number of breweries.

Whatchamefunk?!?! What sort of argument is that? Define something to make it fit your needs. Pull out an unrelated illustration and then tell people to shut up. Brilliant. "Smally" thinking at its finest. See, what is really going on in the press release is another spin, another call to join in lock step to ensure there is one accepted view on craft beer. That of the trade association. Never mind if the substance of the position is right or wrong. The point is to be reminded to do as you are told. This is exactly what the small minded do.

So, what to do in light of this? Well because we are all about positivity around here, let's give the poor schlunks on the committee who approve this sort of thing a few helpful hints on making a more compelling argument:

=> Use relevant stats to bolster your argument like these: "Momentum began to pick up for the microbrewing phenomenon in the early- to mid-1990s with annual volume growth increasing from 35% in 1991 increasing each year to a high of 58% in 1995. Craft brewer volume growth slowed to between 1 and 5 % annually between 1997 and 2003. See, the neat thing is that these stats are from the same source and describe the bust in the 1990s... which was just a big slowing of volume growth. Not a retraction. Not a bubble burst at all. Hmm.

=> Have a point that is connected. Making promises like "...small changes in consumer behavior can dramatically re-shape the landscape of the American beer market..." or "...[s]helf-space can be expanded and distribution channels widened..." smacks of the sort of thing one expects from NeverLand PR departments, not economists. And the warning to retailers not to cap shelf space expansion unless they wish to face dire consequences just comes out of nowhere.

=> Be rational. Refuting your own tightly defined term "bubble" rather than discussing economic challenges smacks of priggishness or worse. Let's be honest. Trade associations and established firms now in leadership are what go on while the marginal newcomers fall away at the edges. Those truly affected by an increasingly complex will not be the members of national craft. A discussion of how and why the brewers at risk manage the challenges of these times - whether a bubble or a plateau - would represent a more thoughtful and welcome approach.

The saddest thing is, of course, the loss of opportunity to associate good beer with good debate. Not only will telling people to shut up will not achieve that but sending out shallow press releases will just encourage people to consider good beer something not worth thinking about. Unless that is the point. Which would be small minded, right?

Maureen Ogle said this about the book: "... immensely readable, sometimes slightly surreal rumination on beer in general and craft beer in particular. Funny, witty, but most important: Smart. The beer geeks will likely get all cranky about it, but Alan and Max are the masters of cranky..."

Ron Pattinson said: "I'm in a rather odd situation. Because I appear in the book. A fictional version of me. It's a weird feeling."

Comments

The problem with all this "bubble" bubble is that it seems to take "craft beer" as one uniform market or segment when actually it should be taken as a more or less loose groups of business models: Gypsy brewers, brewpubs, distribution brewers, etc.

An analyst should look at which of those models a new brewing co. has or will have and determine how vulnerable they will be when the market stops growing at such pace.

This leads me directly to my second point: everyone should stop talking and/or worrying about the number of breweries.

BA is right that breweries are a stupid way to assess a bubble. (5,000 brewpubs making 500 barrels of beer equals just more than 1% of the total US barrelage.) But the amusing thing is that THE BA TRUMPETS THESE NUMBERS EVERY SIX MONTHS.

Alan is apparently a Gen X-er who has hit 40... err...44... err... 45... YIKES... 46 ... [ZOW-WEE!!] 48... jessh, now 51... and edits and writes about other stuff at his personal website Gen X at 40. Please email Alan or any of the authors at this blog's gmail account - please write if you want to join the ranks of authors of this site or just want to send in a story on your favorite beer or photo of your regular pub.

I have moved the content of the OCB Commentary Wiki here. It is now a static document and pretty much is locked in as understandings existed as of 2012. Probably needs its own wiki to update the content! Below are the original introductory remarks:

"The purpose of this wiki is to collectively make comments, add annotation, identify errata and suggest further sources to the text of The Oxford Companion to Beer. Members are asked to avoid comment about the authors, the structure of the text or other extraneous matters. This wiki is a not for profit project that reviews the text pursuant to the concept of "fair dealing for the purpose of criticism or review" under Canadian copyright law." Alan McLeod, wiki Organizer, and chief bottle washer at A Good Beer Blog. Motto? "Many hands make pleasant work." Alan McLeod, 25 October 2011. Please provide some information about yourself when making a request to join the wiki. Anonymous requests for membership will not be approved. Overly ardent and rudely put claims to authority will be cause for removal from the membership. As of 11 January 2012, 134 entries or 12.2% of the total of 1,100 received commentary, many with multiple comments. Eight of the photos have been corrected as well. That number rose to 151 by 13 May 2012.