Monday, November 07, 2016

One is not able to please anyone in this United States Presidential Election of 2016, Democratic Party presidential nominee Hillary Clinton of New York with her vice presidential running mate Tim Kaine and Republican Party Presidential Nominee Donald Trump and his vice presidential running mate Mike Pence are still neck and neck by all probabilities and possibilities, thus I will not change my estimation from my thoughts post convention early August. The ensuing phantasmagorical fiasco that was supposedly a presidential election campaign truly confirmed my original suspicions, however if one positive can be gained from this pessimistic endeavor, be it the guaranteed increase towards voting at most conservative estimates being 70% of the just over 200 million eligible thus 140,700,000 will be voting at the very least. To come to a final statistical tally, I took in all the past vote, present polls, and future considerations, what I am very sure of is that either Hillary or Donald will win only one of the two votes for the popular and electoral and thus we shall have our first split decision again since Gore versus Bush 2000. Though it could go either way being Clinton loses the popular and wins the electoral and Trump wins the popular and wins the electoral or Trump loses the popular and wins the electoral and Clinton wins the popular and wins the electoral as close as the polling and trend has been where either ticket will beat the other by 10 give or take states and in between 3 points of vote, I see a positive momentum towards the latter scenario at the current. Thus I believe Hillary will carry the popular vote with 70,772,100 at 50.3% and Donald will end up with 49.7% at 69,927,900 votes across America, however Trump will gain all the swing bellwether states Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on the key point of economic outlook, trade protection, and job creation, thus win the electoral vote 274 to 264 while Hillary will still carry the most states being 31 + D.C. over 29 for the Donald. Trump takes Alabama @ 9, Alaska @ 3, Arizona @ 11, Arkansas @ 6, Colorado @ 9, Florida @ 29, Georgia @ 16, Idaho @ 4, Illinois @ 20, Iowa @ 6, Kansas @ 6, Louisiana @ 8, Maine @ 4, Michigan @ 16, Mississippi @ 6, Missouri @ 10, Montana @ 3, Nebraska @ 5, New Hampshire @ 4, Nevada @ 6, North Carolina @ 15, North Dakota @ 3, Ohio @ 18, Oregon @ 7, Pennsylvania @ 20, South Carolina @ 9, Utah @ 6, West Virginia @ 5, and Wisconsin @ 10 while Clinton carries California @ 55, Connecticut @ 7, Delaware @ 3, District of Columbia @ 3, Hawaii @ 4, Indiana @ 11, Kentucky @ 8, Maryland @ 10, Massachusetts @ 11, Minnesota @ 10, New Jersey @ 14, New Mexico @ 5, New York @ 29, Oklahoma @ 7, Rhode Island @ 4, South Dakota @ 3, Tennessee @ 11, Texas @ 38, Vermont @ 3, Virginia @ 13, Washington @ 12, and Wyoming @ 3. Caveat lector multum, excepting Nevada, if Trump loses any of the other swingers then game over and Clinton is the victor and the popular vote then seems to flip back to the Donald.All in all, close calling Clinton versus Trump threatens Tuesday leaving us a matchup that will be closer than Gore versus Bush without a doubt and leave the nation paralyzed in a final moment of polarization, before either bipartisanship or possibly multipartisanship finally breaks out in the House by the end of this next session then Senate afterwards.In the Senate races my gut says little change is really expected amongst the upper 34 seat Class 3s, as Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, and Wisconsin stay Republican, while California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington stay Democrat with only the Ron Johnson versus Russ Feingold rematch in the Dairyland being the closest to a flip as it remains 54-44 majority for the Republicans. For the House, of the lower 435 Congressional Districts for the 115th United States Congress, I feel a change of hands between 28 and 47 seats for the Republicans and between 11 and 20 for the Democrats seems realistic which could lead to a blue swing back towards the Democrats who only need 32 more to gain control of Congress which currently remains 246-186 majority for the Republicans, GOP seem to have lost the handle on at least 19 seats but the Democrats are still fumbling 9 so a gain of 10 keeps the GOP running the House if the Whigs can not find 22 more. And finally the gubernatorials should divide with the states of Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota staying with and Missouri, Montana, and New Hampshire switching Republican, while the states of Delaware, Oregon, and Washington with the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico and American Samoa staying not switching Democrat, as far as I can see there. Focusing back on the presidential battle, a battle where sex and the media sold the political election campaign from the primaries onward, the distraction from serious issues of civil liberty, national security, health, education, energy, the environment, states rights, funny how in the end the policyless campaigns derailed themselves in the end by sexual insinuation and innuendo, as Trump got grabbed by a Bush via undercover mic and Clinton was whacked by a Weiner via secret email. How the nation moves forward after this is anyone elses guess, the economic inequality of pre Obama era and the Barack Administration I and racial instability of the Barack Administration II and post Obama era brings America back to a time of disunity and doom rather than its promise of progress and time of harmony and hope, as America enters into days as dark as its Reconstruction era from 1865 of Abraham Lincoln the Andrew Johnson to 1877 of Ulysses Grant under the National Union brand perhaps once again yet another national unionist ideology becomes a third purple way to bridge the ever widening divide between the Reds and Blues during this generation.