Schroder keeps faith but polls paint it black

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German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder was insisting on the eve of
the general election that he could still win as opinion polls
showed the race was heading for a tight finish. The Chancellor said
he was confident his Social Democrats could snatch a famous
last-minute victory.

The latest polls suggested the election is still extremely close
with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) on course for a
narrow victory with their coalition partner the Free Democrats
(FDP). A pre-election poll in the Frankfurter Allgemeine
newspaper showed the CDU on 41.5 per cent with the FDP on 8 per
cent - enough to give them a narrow majority with 49.5 per cent of
the vote. The SPD was on 32.5 per cent, with the Greens on 7 per
cent and the Left Party on 8.5 per cent.

If Mrs Merkel fails to get a majority she could be forced into a
"grand coalition" with Mr Schroder's Social Democrats.
Alternatively, Mr Schroder may be able to carry on as chancellor -
either as head of a minority "red-green government" or in a new
coalition with the FDP. Either way, a rally on Friday marked the
culmination of a comeback by Mr Schroder, who was written off as a
lame duck after announcing an early election in May.

Since June Mr Schroder has managed to erode Mrs Merkel's
21-point lead - thanks largely to her choice of shadow finance
minister, Paul Kirchhof. The Chancellor has portrayed Mr Kirchhof
as a radical neo-Thatcherite who wants to destroy the country's
"social state" by using Germans as "laboratory rats" in a
neo-liberal experiment.

Half of all Germans are fed up with Mr Schroder's Government and
want change, but the other half appear to recoil from any further
reforms. During a gruelling campaign that has seen him criss-cross
Germany for 120 rallies, Mr Schroder managed to radiate an almost
supernatural optimism.

Given a choice between him and Mrs Merkel, Germans would
ultimately back him, he has said. Even if he does lose tomorrow, Mr
Schroder has earned himself a place in history as the first German
chancellor to embark on structural reforms, albeit hesitantly.

By refusing to sign up to George Bush's invasion of Iraq, he has
also pioneered a more assertive German foreign policy - breaking
with the US, the country's ally throughout the cold war. "He's
proved himself in foreign policy and at home," said supporter Rick
Nagelschmidt.

He added: "He is the only chancellor to begin reforms. Everyone
else has been asleep."

This has been a murky campaign by German standards, with both
sides accusing the other of lying. The Christian Democrats said Mr
Schroder's finance minister, Hans Eichel, had a secret plan to make
spending cuts after the election. The SPD denied the claim.

If neither side has a clear majority Germany could face another
election next year. Few observers believe that a Merkel-led "grand
coalition" is likely to bring the reforms Germany needs to emerge
from its current slump.