Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Monday, October 23, 2017

Through week 7 some statistics have clearly been established,
while others have regressed to the mean. Home teams have been a virtual coin
flip against the spread at 47-50. The under was the trend early in the season,
but has leveled off as a modest edge for the year at under 51-46.

Underdogs have been a very profitable bet in 2017, covering
56-41 for 57.7 percent, even better than usual. Underdogs of six or more are
20-13 in the back pocket this season, for an impressive 60.6 percent, including
6-2 at home for 75 percent.

Sharps have stressed for years that pro
gamblers isolate teams that cover even when they don’t win straight up.
Hence is it important to note, the 75 percent cover rate is despite a 1-7
outright mark. Likewise, that 60.6 cover rate comes despite a 9-24 straight up mark,
again proving the square bettor adage that one needs to “merely pick the team
outright to pick that team that covers” yet again is gambling’s poster child of
inductive rather than deductive reasoning.

Low totals have been very good under plays. Games with a
posted over/under of 42.5 have gone under 22-12. This is a far cry from 15-25
years ago when low totals generally were great under bets and high totals great
over plays.

Momentum has meant nothing as teams off a straight up loss
are 43-41 versus the number, which is better than teams followinga win at 41-45. In fact, squads following a
win of 14 or more points are a terrible 12-18 to the sportsbook number, yet
teams off a 14-point or more point loss are 18-11 for 62.1 percent; 10-3-1 when
off a loss of at least 21 points. Teams off a loss playing teams off a win are
a decent 20-16 against the spread.

Teams following a bye against teams that are not off a bye
are 42.9 percent, though with a small sample size at 3-4-1.

The NFL has long been a regression to the mean betting
sport, hence teams off blowout wins or loses straight up tend to do the
opposite spread wise the following week. There is no indication this season
will be an outlier.