tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.

Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!).

I'm not sure exactly what he uses for his time averaging. Network hashrate is a factor in that it will eventually affect difficulty, but it's not a factor in and of itself. All that matters is the number of shares submitted, and the current difficulty which only changes once every ~14 days.

On a per block basis, you can just use diff/shares. If you want an average over a few blocks, just use #blocks * difficulty / total shares.

tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.

Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!).

I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards. However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past.

The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it. They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers.

FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day.

At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck).

To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period. Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck. WHY? Cause we can't find 60% of a block. We can only find a "whole" block. You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck. That would be a rare occasion indeed.

Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average.

The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear. You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate. No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor. The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool."

You can come up with these figures for ANY pool you desire by first entering in an approximate average hash rate of the pool. Then, if you like, you can determine the average payout for your personal hash rate at that pool by staying at the pool for 24 hours. Once you know your payout based on shares [considering if the hash rate is the same average as your previous calculation], you can multiply the average pay out by the average number of blocks found for each day. Then multiply that answer by 30 days and you have an average payout for a month for that pool.

Example:

[Slush] 4.60063897 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06682295 BTC average each day.That would be 2.00468841 BTC in 30 days (1 month).

I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards. However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past.

The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it. They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers.

FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day.

At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck).

To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period. Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck. WHY? Cause we can't find 60% of a block. We can only find a "whole" block. You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck. That would be a rare occasion indeed.

Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average.

The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear. You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate. No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor. The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool."

You're looking at it backwards. Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is. All he can see is the number of shares he has received, and then he infers the hashrate from that. He doesn't need to do that though other than as a convenience to users that he just added in the last couple months. All he needs to calculate luck is the number of shares, the number of blocks found, and the difficulty.

I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards. However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past.

The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it. They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers.

FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day.

At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck).

To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period. Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck. WHY? Cause we can't find 60% of a block. We can only find a "whole" block. You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck. That would be a rare occasion indeed.

Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average.

The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear. You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate. No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor. The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool."

You're looking at it backwards. Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is. All he can see is the number of shares he has received, and then he infers the hashrate from that. He doesn't need to do that though other than as a convenience to users that he just added in the last couple months. All he needs to calculate luck is the number of shares, the number of blocks found, and the difficulty.

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

Also, you said, "Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is."

Really?

What the heck is that you are seeing after being on the pool for 60 Minutes IF it is not hash rate?

If I can see my hash rate, THEY can certainly see my own hash rate.

IF they can see MY hash rate, THEY can certainly see everyone else's!

WHY SO OBJECTIVE? Can you not keep an open mind? Do you have everything figured out?

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

I didn't ask, pekatete did.

Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to.

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

EDIT: I just hit upon a plan, I'll rephrase my question: How do I find out what a pool's luck is?

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

I didn't ask, pekatete did.

Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to.

Then we agree that "hash rate" is very important in determining shares, which in turn determines the percentage for pool luck? There is no computation program that I know of that will determine the length of time it would take to find a block based on number of shares. All of them I know of determine this based on hash rate... PERIOD! They do say, "can very greatly depending on luck." I say it can also vary greatly depending on the "quality" of the miners mining. If they are over clocked to the point of having one stale after another, HW too high, etc... one's ability to find a block "solo" is diminished; and one's ability to build up sufficient amount of shares in a pool is diminished.

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

I didn't ask, pekatete did.

Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to.

How do they not have access to it, if THEY are the one's giving MINE to me?

LOOK at the "header" above the box for your workers in "account." Then tell me what it says...

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

I think you just enjoy trying to criticize someone you don't like for whatever reason.

Now what did I say that's got you up in arms againt me?EDIT: Like I said, I asked how to compute luck and all I got was how to get the luck. We have all the numbers that we believe make up the calculation of luck, but NOT the formula (well, just a link to a page to plug the numbers in!).

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

I didn't ask, pekatete did.

Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to.

Then we agree that "hash rate" is very important in determining shares, which in turn determines the percentage for pool luck? There is no computation program that I know of that will determine the length of time it would take to find a block based on number of shares. All of them I know of determine this based on hash rate... PERIOD! They do say, "can very greatly depending on luck." I say it can also vary greatly depending on the "quality" of the miners mining. If they are over clocked to the point of having one stale after another, HW too high, etc... one's ability to find a block "solo" is diminished; and one's ability to build up sufficient amount of shares in a pool is diminished.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The average number of difficulty1 shares needed to find a block is equal to the difficulty. IE, on average you currently need ~35B diff1 shares. Your mining software infact lists your hashrate based on the number of accepted shares. Download the source of cgminer and look at how it actually goes about finding that hashrate number it displays.

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

EDIT: I just hit upon a plan, I'll rephrase my question: How do I find out what a pool's luck is?

WOW, REALLY?

LOL

I've gone to several sites with similar computation programs and they all give very similar, if not the same exact answer.

The following thread will tell you the same about answering difficulty with hash rate computations.

Also, if you go back to the link I suggested for Bitcoin mining profitability, he explains how he comes up with it. You ask a question, I provide you with info, YET you want take the time to look at it Mr. Calculus.

EDIT: Like I said, I asked how to compute luck and all I got was how to get the luck. We have all the numbers that we believe make up the calculation of luck, but NOT the formula (well, just a link to a page to plug the numbers in!).

No, that is the formula. It's just not a difficult one. The luck value that pools use is just the number of shares they expect a block to take (IE, the difficulty), divided by the number of shares it actually took.

If you want to do it over some random time interval, it's just the number of blocks you found in that time, times the difficulty, divided by the total shares. It gets a little more difficult when the difficulty changes, but you just divided it into two separate terms at that point.

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

I didn't ask, pekatete did.

Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to.

Then we agree that "hash rate" is very important in determining shares, which in turn determines the percentage for pool luck? There is no computation program that I know of that will determine the length of time it would take to find a block based on number of shares. All of them I know of determine this based on hash rate... PERIOD! They do say, "can very greatly depending on luck." I say it can also vary greatly depending on the "quality" of the miners mining. If they are over clocked to the point of having one stale after another, HW too high, etc... one's ability to find a block "solo" is diminished; and one's ability to build up sufficient amount of shares in a pool is diminished.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The average number of difficulty1 shares needed to find a block is equal to the difficulty. IE, on average you currently need ~35B diff1 shares. Your mining software infact lists your hashrate based on the number of accepted shares. Download the source of cgminer and look at how it actually goes about finding that hashrate number it displays.

How do they not have access to it, if THEY are the one's giving MINE to me?

LOOK at the "header" above the box for your workers in "account." Then tell me what it says...

It says, "Total average hash rate in last 60 minutes."

It's a derived number. Slush takes your number of shares in the last 60 minutes, divides it by 3600 to get the number of shares/sec, multiplies it by 2^32, and displays that as your hashrate.

I don't doubt that one bit. The link I provided for Mining profitability even mentions this. I'm still saying in order for us to come up with how LUCK is determined, Hash rate is a MAJOR contributor in its calculation. Without hash rate, their can be no shares. Whether the pool determines luck based solely on hash rate or solely on shares remains to be seen. They haven't told us in "News."

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

EDIT: Like I said, I asked how to compute luck and all I got was how to get the luck. We have all the numbers that we believe make up the calculation of luck, but NOT the formula (well, just a link to a page to plug the numbers in!).

No, that is the formula. It's just not a difficult one. The luck value that pools use is just the number of shares they expect a block to take (IE, the difficulty), divided by the number of shares it actually took.

If you want to do it over some random time interval, it's just the number of blocks you found in that time, times the difficulty, divided by the total shares. It gets a little more difficult when the difficulty changes, but you just divided it into two separate terms at that point.

Agreed, but I'm telling you, my numbers based on hash rate to determine luck were not that far off at all. If you look at the 1 Day Luck percentage at the end of each day [based on the number of blocks found], you will see its percentage is very close to the number I indicated based on hash rate.

And yes, stale shares, duplicates, rejects, etc... would play a roll in determining "luck" if not factored in. I can see the logic in determining Pool Luck based on Shares contributed to the pool. Still, what I was doing as a "Newbie" to determine this on my own wasn't too far off.