Newton enters MSBA pipeline with Cabot

The city has to go through a few preliminary steps over the next 270 days before being eligible to begin a feasibility study on the site. City officials estimate construction could get underway in 2016 and cost approximately $45 million.

The MSBA is already working with the city on the Angier, having awarded $11.5 million toward the project in October.

I’d bet that the difference is the site. While the demo of the existing building won’t cost too much, building on a cramped site raises costs. In addition, square footage isn’t the only driver, you also need to look at other factors (materials, furnishings, etc). But I bet the big driver is the location. One of the reasons the MSBA is involved is to try and normalize costs across districts.

And as a Cabot parent, yes, that school needs help. My kids will be too old to use it for the most part, but it is still sorely needed.

Joshua-In the next few weeks my group (that would be my husband and I) will be doing a comprehensive financial analysis and evaluation of why doing renovations on a house in rural Maine is significantly less expensive than doing the very same renovations on a house in Newton.

Jane, when my group (me and my dog) performed a deep financial analysis on your houses in ME and Newton, we actually learned of many factors that contributed to a reported cost difference. Things like the compactness of the site and availability of staging areas, site topography, soil quality, the local labor market, whether the price quoted included total project cost or just building cost (we learned that your Newton building cost is only 70% of total project cost), programming decisions like: are there all bedrooms or is there a family room too, first cost vs. lifespan/lifetime maintenance/operating costs of systems, building during a slump vs. a boom time, inflation cost escalation since your houses were built a handful of years apart…..

But my advice to you would be to do no real analysis at all if the answers might undercut your favorite narrative: that your husband compulsively overpays in Newton because he cannot resist gold plated faucets. This is Newton after all.

I just read Jane & Steve Siegel’s response. You should read it too. It reinforces the Newton Taxpayers Association’s case against the culture of fiscal lassitude in the city, and particularly in the Newton Public Schools.

Jane and Steve used red herrings to excuse the fact that Newton is spending 67% more for Cabot than Hingham spent for its elementary school even though the new Cabot is smaller than Hingham’s new school. If I wanted to hear excuses for underperformance, I would listen to the earnings call for Exelon Corporation (aka the President’s Utility).

Taxpayers are committed to excellence in education and facilities management, but lets keep in mind that we live in a city, not a school district. Newton taxpayers shouldn’t have to pay a 68% premium price per square foot relative to well-managed communities in order to demonstrate their commitment to excellence in education and facilities management.

The reality is that Newton taxpayers are paying premium prices for smaller buildings when it comes to infrastructure projects. This is due to inefficient and ineffective management by Newton’s government– management that flails in the status quo because it has no vision, expectations, or discipline in its process. The taxpayers expect more, much more.

@Joshua, You keep mentioning only the Hingham school project. It’s been pointed out many times in other threads, by a number of people, that there are variables in every project that make the Hingham school project(bid quite a few years ago now), not a be all, end all, benchmark. Here’s a link from about a year ago when Lincoln, MA was trying to see how their school project stacked up against other communities from a cost perspective.

I will say that I don’t know the project specifics in all of these projects either, but it would seem that you can’t just cherry pick a low cost project and say that it’s automatically comparable to the Newton school projects. It just isn’t as simple as you make it seem. The MSBA posts all project costs, so folks can feel free to see how school projects outside of Newton and Hingham stack up.

Joanne, a piece of the difference can be explained by normal inflation and by cost escalation associated with a strengthening construction market. I don’t remember the target square footage of Cabot but if Joshua’s number is right, Cabot is 20% bigger than Angier and $45 million is 20% more than $37.5 million. Beyond that I’ll see what I can find out and get back to you.

Joshua, c’mon now, avoid the traps! You can do better than this. Real analysis is not bare number crunching followed by glib gybes. Creative writing is no substitute for science. Providing context is not a red herring. Do some real analysis. For all I know maybe you’ll find something useful and we can all learn. Exelon Corporation? Oh, snap! …..Really Joshua?

Joshua-
The answer to your question is location, location, location. Also,
if you are a vendor dealing with a municipality that is stupid(or wealthy)
enough to pay whatever you charge them, why wouldn’t you gouge them?

NewtonMoneyLove, I spoke with one of the aldermen at a fundraiser for an aldermanic candidate in October and he told me the exact same thing you said about how the vendors can gouge Newton because Newton is a relatively wealthy city and willing to pay whatever the vendors say. Hingham isn’t as wealthy as Newton and as such it can’t overpay for buildings like Newton does.

Steve, I propose that you and I do head-to-head guest columns in the Newton TAB on Newton School Spending. I question why we spend ~45% more than Hingham and Shrewsbury yet those towns have academic performance that is comparable or better than Newton. Your thesis was that Newton has different demographics than those towns. My primary thesis is that Newton offers a more lavish compensation package to its unions than those towns and my secondary thesis is that it overpays for buildings relative to those towns.http://blogs.wickedlocal.com/newton/2013/03/08/virtual-opinion-page/#comment-89712

As for the school buildings themselves, I believe that if you were to give me the building specs for Hingham’s East Elementary School and Newton’s new elementary school projects, it would probably end up reinforcing my position that Newton is overpaying for buildings.

Dueling guest columns are not how a community does responsible analysis. Maybe it’s entertaining like Dancing with the Stars but otherwise it’s pretty silly.

Crunching numbers is a starting point. The next step is to ask with an open mind what the results mean and then test each answer that turns up.

Let me ask you something – If you studied our state aggregate MCAS data and observed that white students perform higher than African-American, ELL, and identified low-income students, would that information factor into your comparison of academic achievement between Newton and Hingham schools?

If you answer “no” I’m done. If your answer is “yes”, by all means feel free to compare the subgroup populations of each town, but resist drawing any conclusions before you followup with questions like these: Do our different demographics lead us to different educational approaches? Should they? What are the cost implications?

At some point we might conclude that we can do better. Do more for less, as you like to say. But not before we do the work to understand what we are doing and why.

I would use the dueling guest columns as a first round of research and analysis in evaluating Newton’s thesis of “You need more money to get more out of education”.

I believe that Newton taxpayers pay a Mercedes price for Buick performance when it comes to per pupil student spending and its because of compensation. My report will show how Newton teachers have a lower workload relative to other districts, how they have higher cash salary relative to other districts and a more lavish benefit package relative to other districts.

Paragraph 3: Yes, and I would compare how Newton’s student groups perform against Hingham’s student groups (whites against whites, high needs against high needs etc)

Paragraph 4: Subgroups:
Newton does 1% better than Hingham with high needs students, 2% better with white students and 8% better with multi-racial students

Hingham does 13% better than Newton with low income students, 6% better with disabled students and 33% better with Latino students

Paragraph 5: I can conclude that although Newton spends nearly 45% more per student than Hingham, it does not generate any meaningful academic outperformance versus Hingham because that extra money goes to underwrite premium compensation packages for the unions.

I think that disproves the thesis that Newton needs to spend more on the schools to get better academic results.

Joshua, you’re still not doing analysis, just number comparisons. Does it take more resources to get good results with a higher subgroup population? If you don’t know, it is premature to draw any conclusion.

By the way, Trulia reports the median home price in Newton from 11/2012 to 11/2013 to be 36% higher than the median home price in Hingham. Over the same time period the Newton home price is 59% more than that of Shrewsbury. Is there a reason to consider this in an analysis of teacher compensation for each community? Just wondering your thoughts?

Steve, now you are the one getting off track. For your comments to have validity, the quality of the housing inventory would need to be identical in the various communities. Newton may just be fortunate to have a better overall quality of housing (actually just the top 50% needs to be better) therefore making the median Newton home a better home (independent of the location’s affect on price) than those in other communities. I would not expect that the teachers’ contract ensures that the teachers be paid so as to afford the median home price. There are teachers who do not want to live near the school at which they teach.

Teachers should be paid a good living wage based on their teaching performance, not based on the local housing market (unless they are willing to take pay cuts when the market drops).

Steve, Newton spends 45% more per student than Hingham and Shrewsbury yet those towns get comparable or better academic results than Newton. It’s not because of demographics, its because of compensation. I normally expect larger communities to benefit from economies of scale. If Newton is spending 45% more per student than smaller communities, than Newton Public Schools are facing diseconomies of scale in the way it operates relative to other school districts. Newton’s per pupil spending on administration is 80% more than Hingham’s and its per pupil spending on fringe benefits is 90% more than Hingham.

As for using the CAG Report as a research/analysis model, I’m already using the Newton 20/20, The Blueprint for Newton’s Future and the Boston Municipal Research Bureau as my model for research and analysis. Plus certain members of the CAG have recognized the strong level of research analysis that I have created and distributed while serving as the Research Director of the (new) Newton Taxpayers Association.

As for your comparisons about housing prices, Newton doesn’t have a residency rule for its teachers. A teacher can live in a lower cost community like Waltham, Dedham, West Roxbury or Burlington, work as a teacher in Newton schools and even send their kids to be educated in Newton schools even though they don’t live in Newton.

Since we can only assume that you have looked at the school project costs in MA. Maybe you can share your insights in this area, and give us the ten highest square foot school project costs over the past couple years. Feel free to include the lowest as well so we can make our own comparisons. I’d be willing to bet that you won’t post these costs, as it won’t bode well for you agenda. You’ll just post again about Hingham or Shrewsbury, and how their projects are so much less than ours. You’ll try and make another argument about quality of education versus project cost. You wont actually deal with this head on.

Randy, I got a better idea. How about you post with your real name, rather than using a sockpuppet mononym?

As for gathering the 10 highest and lowest cost per square foot projects over the last few years (by year as applicable) why doesn’t the Newton Public Schools or Public Buildings Department do that. It’s not the job of the Newton Taxpayers Association nor its leadership to go fetching this data. Furthermore, I was surprised to see that Newton spent so much more on its buildings versus other districts.

I am wondering if anyone can answer a simple question – How big is the new Cabot in sq feet compared to new Angier? Can we compare the 2 schools being built in Newton as to WHY one is more expensive than the other.

Joanne, here are the cost and square feet for Newton’s school projects:

Angier: $37,500,000 for 75,000 square feet

Zervas: $40,000,000 for 80,000 square feet

Cabot: $45,000,000 for 90,000 square feet

randy, this blog is a no sockpuppet zone and as such I’m not going to dignify an anonymous, mononymic sockpuppet like you. Who are you anyway? I’ve never heard of you! No one outside of the Reibmanland blogosphere has heard of you.

Randy, my comments are drawn directly from Trulia. From these I asked a question and you gave your opinion. I’m good with that. What I’m also good with is that you didn’t make up an assertion based upon a political viewpoint and no clue about whether it is so or not (“….It’s not because of demographics…..”).

Joshua, it is certainly not your job to fetch data. But it will help bolster your argument, and show that you aren’t making things up.

Steve, Joshua makes many good points in the various threads on this website. However his presentation style and combative attitude does not help to bring the two sides together to find workable solutions. My impression of your input to this website has been that you try to help people understand the issues in a non-emotional and structured way. You tend to bring clarity and insight to the discussions by keeping to the salient points.

Playing Joshua’s game by introducing median home prices into this topic was not something I expected from you. Teachers are not the only professional people that may not be able to afford a median home in Newton. With the median price inches from $700,000 there are very few young families, even with two incomes, that can afford to buy in Newton. That is a separate issue to address in a parallel thread. (BTW, I am not a strong supporter of expanded government subsidies to solve that issue.)

If you are going to convert to Joshua’s debate style, I will be giving your comments less attention and weight in my evaluation of issues affecting my city.

Thanks Patrick – I was thinking the same thing. As a sitting SC member – you would think he could give us better facts to tell us why in Newton it will cost $500 per sq ft in comparison to other community’s which do the same for 300-400 per sq ft.

Without doing any analysis whatsoever, but knowing that Newton and Hingham are vastly different communities, I’d wonder how similar the sites are between Newton’s elementary schools and Hingham’s. I’d also wonder about costs when Hingham’s school was built vs. when Newton’s schools will be built. I’d wonder whether Hingham had to tear down and haul away any parts of an existing building that was originally constructed 90+ years ago. I’d wonder whether Hingham had to displace and transport students during said construction. I’d wonder about the cost of staging a project.

That’s what I wondered about in the past 20 seconds that I devoted to this answer. I’m not sure what else I’d come up with if I actually sat down and gave it some thought.

Pat and Joanne, I don’t have a combative presentation style. However, I have to agree with Joanne that in that I was disappointed that Steve Siegel did not give us better facts to tell us why in Newton it will cost $500 per sq ft in comparison to other communities which do the same for $300-400 per sq ft.

Gail, in the 20 seconds I devoted to reading your blog post, I would show you that Newton is paying $37.5 Million for a 75,000 square foot Angier and that $26.2 Million is devoted to Construction cost.
Hingham’s total project cost was $27 Million for a 91,350 square foot East Elementary School according to the MSBA.
I would make a good faith effort to circle back with you all regarding an itemized breakdown of Hingham East Elementary School’s project costs if it is publicly available.http://www.newtonma.gov/civicax/filebank/documents/54451

$3.1M of the $37M budgeted for Angier is for off-site traffic improvements. That’s almost 10% of the total project costs, and significantly impacts the square foot costs. Just some info for folks.

@Joshua, I am simply trying to balance this argument and provide folks with some info to form their own opinions. It is not your responsibility to provide us with comparable project costs, but it would seem that showing both extremes, (high and low), would give more credibility to your argument. For your sake, I would suggest you avoid name-calling. I can tell by your posts that you put a lot of work into your posts, and it would be a shame to see it sullied through something so trivial. All I ask is that you balance your data with the highs and lows of school project costs.

Who am I. Just somebody who cares about Newton like you, just with different viewpoints. No need to get fired up over it.

Patrick, there are facts and there are analyses of these facts. My beef with Joshua is that he presents the first and then draws conclusions. I rarely see any analysis. I presented facts in this thread regarding median home prices and then asked how he would think about them. I asserted nothing while hoping for deeper thinking in response. This is a fair exercise.

There are other factors: Our school will be finished 7 years after the East Elementary School in Hingham. Costs can be expected to increase from inflation plus construction cost escalation related to a stronger construction environment. More demand for services in an improved economy results in higher prices.

What I cannot comment on, due to lack of information about Hingham’s design, are educational programming features, equipment and material choices that play first cost off of lifespan and lifecycle operating costs, and other items. But to conclude that Hingham is getting better value than Newton in our school construction before knowing these things is frivolity.

What I do know is that the Angier cost is consistent with the high end of MSBA historic cost data. Being on the high end could be the result of the local and site conditions I’ve mentioned here and before, and maybe its because we “are suckers and get gouged because we will overpay” as others have suggested. But without actually doing the work of evaluating and analyzing the various factors, how do we know?

Finally, you know that I try hard to be responsive to public inquiry on school topics. I do a lot of it here but do feel free to contact me directly at steven_siegel@newton.k12.ma.us . I’ll give it my best.

Randy, even if we adjust for $3.1M for off-site traffic costs and exclude it from the Angier building cost, Newton is still spending 28% more for Angier than Hingham spent for East Elementary even though East Elementary is still over 20% larger than the new Angier.

Newton’s cost per square foot for Angier is $500. Hingham’s cost per square foot for East Elementary is $295. Newton’s cost per square foot for Angier is nearly 70% more than Hingham’s cost per square foot for East Elementary. I acknowledge that 8% of this difference is potentially due to the aforementioned off-site traffic costs. However, that still leaves 60% that needs to be accounted for.

Hingham bid that project in 2008. 6 years before Newton will bid Angier. That said, 3% escalation is an industry standard, but 2008 was an all time low for construction costs.(damn near depression) The industry is now back in full swing with plenty of market corrections. At a minimum, we are looking at 18% more than what Himgham spent(some put this at closer to 25%). That would put the Angier at $352/ft2. The proposed Angier School is appx $453/ft2 when factoring in all hard and soft costs(minus the off-site traffic work, (but not the $1M in MBTA work). I believe that Hingham Middle School was built in 2009 with a cost of almost $350/ft2 when construction costs were still low. At 3% escalation, you’re still looking at appx $394/ft2 in today’s dollars. Still a difference in costs, but not as far apart as one may think.

Anyone suggesting wasteful spending, a fraudulent process, or abuses in power should be forced outright to state directly where it could possibly be happening — by whom OR in what fashion. There is of course nothing provided by square footage project cost other than proof of basic math skills. Asserting waste, fraud and/or abuse is a very serious charge that loses it’s force when one can’t even point to something like the gold plated wash basins that Mr Siegel made up. Cries of WOLF! too often only raise concern about someone’s mental health situation. Why is this being done repeatedly and to no end other than to gather (negative) attention? Grow up, or seek assistance.

I will say that the City of Newton and the Newton Public Schools in particular have a poor record of planning when it comes to capital asset projects.

Kevin Dutt also noticed that Newton did a poor job of creating estimates for building renovations. Kevin Dutt was a member of the CAG, the Newton Center Task Force and Newton Energy Commission so when he says something, its worth listening to.

When the Newton Public Schools missed the impact of the sprinkler law sponsored by our very own Ruth Balser, it leads me to question the planning process for large projects.

When Newton Public Schools spends more than other communities for smaller buildings, it basically gives me an easy argument to oppose a likely 2018 override package for Ward, Williams, Pierce and Lincoln-Eliot.

If the City of Newton was to enact pro-active fiscal reforms to underwrite those projects without resorting to overrides, then we probably wouldn’t have this discussion on the blogs.

I spoke with an alderman and he shared the same disgust I have regarding the soaring costs for Carr, Day and other projects. He also told me that the sprinkler law was discovered by accident.

….Oh, here’s something: The Angier price includes $1 million to enlarge the usable footprint of this very tight site, by building a high retaining wall against the MBTA tracks. Whereas Hingham’s East Elementary School has been built on a large open field.

I wonder what other factors I might find that will help account for a cost differential? You know, if I look?

I think these exchanges illustrate what happens all too frequently when a public official is challenged. That it involves Steve Seigel, is all the more telling. During the campaign, Steve ran as a level headed, fair minded individual, who would address the public concerns in an open minded, fair, objective manner.
What we see here, is a flip, condescending, sarcastic, and yes, caustic reply to a member of the public, from an elected official. I understand, as others have mentioned, that Joshua’s approach can be off putting. But really, for an elected public official to descend to this type of hyperbole, is a real shame. the public deserves better. Steve, seriously, if you don’t want to take the time to answer thoughtfully, and fairly, then don’t respond at all. You are a member of the School Committee, who promised more, and is delivering less. If you don’t like the job of answering Joshua’s questions, then you really shouldn’t be seeking the office. At least, that is what you used to say of others in office, before you were elected.
People in this city deserve answers, frankly, if he(Joshua) is so off base, and illogical in thought, it should be rather straightforward to point it out in a neutral manner. Not in this manner.
I am not really surprised( power corrupts…etc.), but isn’t it ironic that you are now displaying many of the very characteristics you used to complain of others in office, when you were on the outside looking in.(asking questions).
Chill out Steve; what are you really trying to accomplish here? To make someone look badly? Or, to answer a legitimate public concern, (Are we spending our money wisely)?

Steve Siegel — They want you to mouth “thank you for your commentary”, “I value your thoughts on the matter”, “let me take a look and get back”, “I take these matters very seriously”, “excellent point, I’ll ask about that”, “I am committed to getting to the bottom of this”, “please be assured we will do our best to research every district”. “we are constantly reviewing and analyzing our projects”….

Neal, you called me on being sarcastic and I deserve it. But you know as well as anyone that I work hard, in this blog setting and elsewhere, to thoroughly and directly answer questions posed from Joshua, you, and others. I’ll keep doing it. And if I veer off track, I’m sure you’ll tell me again. Thanks. — Steve

Joshua – It is not my task to get our cost differential down to zero. Rather, I have taken on responding to questions about why our costs may be justifiably different. As I’ve said before, number crunching is a tool in the service of sound analysis. But quoting numbers is not analysis.

Joshua, I did not say you had a combative presentation style. I said you have a combative attitude. I did not expect you to accept my observation, yet I had to try. I also do not expect you to accept advice from me. Yet, I would encourage you to have a conversation with someone you respect that has experience building coalitions. You have many good ideas. However, for you to be anything other than a lone voice in the wilderness, you need to learn how to present yourself and your ideas in a way that draws people to you. Citing facts, no matter how compelling, does not alone create an atmosphere where people would want to work with a person that can not tolerate an opposing position.

Patrick, I don’t have a combative attitude and I’m not intolerant of opposing positions.

However I don’t appreciate it when my analysis and evaluation is mocked as “number-crunching”.

I’m not going to sit here with a smile when an elected official is rather sanguine as to why Newton’s building costs are much higher than well-run communities.

Steve, if Newton has to pay a huge premium per square foot relative to well-run communities, our elected officials should at least be able to explain the disparity rather than quoting one of two differentiating factors that account for 10% of the difference.

Not mocking Joshua. I’ve noted all along that number crunching can be the precursor to sound analysis, and you generate raw data as well as anyone. I’ve also been telling you all along many of the factors that account for cost differences between schools and communities. It is your choice to acknowledge them or not.

Newton Dad, I approach this slightly differently. Newton and our consultants created the educational program for Angier based upon MSBA guidelines and current educational practices. I watched the building design as it developed in accordance with this program, and what I am fine with is how well the design responds to the program.

Certain types of expenses are limited or are not reimbursable and other expenses (sitework, for example) are capped at a specific percentage of total project cost. The MSBA does not have unlimited funding resources and their limits literally help them share the wealth more evenly across more projects. So the $4.9 million is not “outside of the MSBA norm”, it represents the residual outside of a tight reimbursement formula.

As well, their reimbursement formula tends to incentivize some features of new building construction. For example Newton is investing in high energy performance in mechanical systems and the building envelop at Angier. This upfront cost, which has the benefit of reducing lifetime operating expenses, pushes our $/square foot figure higher. However notice in the Agreement you linked to that we are receiving the maximum reimbursement points, 2% for being a “Green School”. Our energy investment immediately brings $540,000 back from the MSBA, offsetting the initial investment and lowering the cost to Newton taxpayers.

Angier has a unique footprint, and is bordered by the train tracks. I am no engineer, but that must have something to do with it, plus, I thought the triangle at Beacon/Collins/Waban would also be redone. Plus, hauling away the parts of Angier. . . I am sure there is asbestos and other harmful waste that costs more than just “rubble.”

Cabot is also on a tight space, and not an open field. It is in a more urban area, and that involves different traffic control and planning than building on an open field. And again, Cabot and Angier both have construction materials that were used in the early 1900s that were probably banned and is more expensive to get rid of now.

Plus it includes MOVING the STUFF from Angier to Carr (furniture, etc) and BUSSING. Yes, all 400 kids from Angier must be busses (using about 8 busses) to Carr EVERY SINGLE DAY. The school is encouraging parents to have the kids use the busses (free of charge to the parents but not the city) to reduce the traffic in the Carr neighborhood. This is a HUGE change from Angier’s current procedures where most parents walk to school with their child, say hello to the teacher and other parents. There are COSTS. . . . I don’t know if Hingham bussed the kids to the alternate school, but this is a real cost.

Joshua, please dont suggest that parents should pay $300 a year (for two years) for the kids to be bussed to Carr. I am dreading that bus ride for my kid. I know the new school will be worth it because the old school should have been demolished years ago, but I am supporting this because Newton needs to improve the elementary school buildings . . . . for the future. We can’t have kids attending the current Angier and Cabots for the next 100 years.

Steve Siegel, Do you happen to know if the new construction will include signage near the street? It’s really hard to see the names of some of the schools — it’s not even clear if they are schools unless you happen to know the area. Tx

Newton Mom, I don’t understand the meaning of the last paragraph in your post?

Concerning ” please dont suggest that parents should pay $300 a year (for two years) for the kids to be bussed to Carr.” Is this meant to be a red herring? I was under the impression that Waban kids would get free busing to Carr considering that Carr is more than 2 miles away than Waban and the state law requires free busing for elementary kids when their neighborhood school is more than 2 miles away (walking distance).

With regards to “Newton needs to improve the elementary school buildings . . . . for the future. We can’t have kids attending the current Angier and Cabots for the next 100 years.”

Moving Newton Forward With Fiscal Responsibility opposed the 2013 override tax increase package because we want Newton to deal with eliminating fiscal waste and lassitude, which resulted in Newton racking up $1.07 BILLION in interest bearing debt/liabilities. Newton taxpayers didn’t need to pay $11.4 Million in new taxes to fund these projects.

Newton spends nearly $8.5 Million annually to provide education for 583 out-of-district students. Newton turned down $2.1 Million annually from the naming rights proposal. Newton spends $2.7 Million annually the “Community Preservation Act” program while its infrastructure is rotting from within. Newton spends $40,792 for part of the teachers union president’s salary. That’s just the tip of the iceberg regarding better revenue and spending solutions which will result in Newton moving forward towards fiscal responsibility.

Steve Siegel _- I gotta tell ya – I thought the mayor overused the term “I’m really excited” in the campaign… BUT this is hugely exciting that we will leave this little speck of civilization in a better place than we inherited it. Thank you for all your effort, and the effort of your colleagues for overseeing this important historical moment.

Is the $500,000 for busing Angier kids to Carr about the same as busing all the kids from Upper Falls to Countryside, Angier, and Zervas or is it higher or lower? If either, why? Will the cost of this busing continue to be borne by Upper Falls parents?

I assume that the $500,000 will only be in effect for the time of construction, not perpetually as the busing costs for the Upper Falls kids have been since the closing of the Emerson School and will remain in effect for the foreseeable future unless some change is made in the School’s plan to meet the increasing enrollment. If the enrollment increases back to the levels of peak enrollment of thirty years ago, wouldn’t we face a shortfall of at least three schools at the enrollment levels of that time?

Joshua – would you kindly clarify something for me: do you deem this $8.5 million for 583 out-of-district placements to be “fiscal waste and lassitude”? Without getting into too much detail, it is important to realize that out-of-district placements are typically very expensive – day school placements average $50-70,000 per year, and residential placements – though rare, typically begin at $200,000 per year per child. The second significant factor to keep in mind with these placements is that they are usually only offered after there has been at least some level of intensive advocacy/litigation by the parents. In other words, the district hardly caves in to these expensive placements without a fight. Whether they take that fight all the way through to a full blown hearing (thus risking that Newton would be required to pay attorneys’ fees on top of tuition) or resolve the dispute through alternative dispute resolution, it is very difficult to convince the City that the placement is needed. Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to generate data on placements because the City gags parents through the oppressive practice of confidentiality agreements.

Brian, the Angier-to-Carr bussing cost should be much greater than the Upper Falls bussing cost. The Angier population is roughly triple the UF elementary count, and Angier students will travel across the city while UF students go to nearby schools.

Newton’s school enrollment peaked at over 18,000 students 40+ years ago and has been as low as 9,000 since them. It is at 12,600 right now and is expected to grow by 5% over the next five years. The growth trends indicate that the rate is slowing and may crest in five years before falling. Will this happen? I wish our enrollment projections were an exact science but since they are not we will monitor projections, and changes to projections, continuously so that our long-range facility planning will remain sound.

LisaP, you are referring to the 150+/- Newton students who are placed out-of-district for special education services, not out-of-district students who are placed here via Metco and our NPS contract.

@Steve – Yes in speaking of “out-of-district placements” I am speaking just to those placements for children in need of special education services which cannot be provided in district, meaning within the City. I don’t ever actually think of METCO students or students who have a choice of which high school to attend or because of a buffer zone or something of the like as being “out of district placements”. In those instances, there is an affirmative choice that is taking place between one or more geographical school locations, though I can understand how the term could be applied to a change of neighborhood school. “Placement” in the context of special education is secondary to the determination of what services the child needs.

Steve & Lisap, when I referred to out-of-district students, it collectively applied to all the programs that bring in non-resident students (METCO, EDCO, Staff Kids, Approved to Attend, Special Ed kids tuitioned in and Foreign Exchange Students).

Thanks for your response. but it yields more questions. If the Angier population to be bused is three times that of Upper Falls (what are the exact figures?) but the Upper Falls kids are bused to three different schools, won’t the extra vehicle costs offset the difference in population?

If the potential enrollment is 18,000 based on past experience, why is it not reasonable to make adequate provision for a significant portion of that number in the future. It seems ridiculous to be repeatedly rebuilding portions of the school infrastructure when the residential sector is about the same if not somewhat increased. I would respectfully suggest that the institutional planning for school facilities has not been sound since the schools built at the centers of at least four villages that most students could walk to were closed rather than expanded. They were replaced by modulars in environmentally dubious sites.

Brian, I don’t understand your question about bussing. Would you try to rephrase it? Thanks.

Regarding future school enrollments, the current projections suggest that our enrollment may peek in the mid 13,000s, from our current enrollment of 12,600. Yes, I appreciate that you’ve heard this before in the mid 70s, but I can tell you that nothing we are doing now will preclude us from doing more later to expand capacity should the student population require it.

Steve:
This is just anecdotal, but haven’t the long range enrollment projections for over a decade, consistently underestimated the actual enrollment? Given that we are no where near our historic peaks, there is every reason to believe that the increased density and constructions, may offset the decrease in family size, and we could realistically see numbers approaching 14,000 or more.

My child is districted to Angier, and we are Newton Highlands! And yes, we get to PAY for the bus since my home school, HYDE, was closed years back. It is not just an Upper Falls issue! What about Lower Falls! I get to pay for the bus, because when I moved to Newton in 1998, I had no idea that I would be charged $300 a year to take the bus for my kids, who weren’t even born yet! I feel the pain for Upper Falls, but they are NOT the only neighborhood without a school. Countryside is in the Highlands, but that is not our home school.

Neal, having presided over the special permit process for Riverside, I was more than a little discouraged as to the reliability of the long range enrollment projections provided to the Land Use Committee.

In 2012, we were told by NPS that Riverside would add 44 students to the public schools; in May 2013, when the peer review net fiscal impact analysis was completed, we were told that Riverside would add 61 students to the public schools and that Williams was projected to be 25 students under capacity by the time the project was completed in FY17; and in October 2013, shortly after the full board voted to approve the special permit, the school committee was told that Riverside would add 75 students–45 students at Williams alone.

On Land Use, we have to rely on professional staff and independent consultants to do our work. The fact that the long range enrollment projections for Riverside almost doubled in two years and that the Board was not advised that Williams School could be 20 students over capacity by Fall 2017 prior to voting on the special permit is profoundly disappointing to say the least.

Neal, the 2006 enrollments were the basis for the Long Range Facilities Plan that came out in 2007, and it projected a student population in 2011-2012 of 12,600 students. We only hit that number this year, two years after the earlier projections. After 2006 our projection methodology changed and the current population is higher than expected in enrollment projections since 2007. Our projections have been high and low depending upon year but the overall long range plan continues to fit our enrollment.

Specifically, the current 5-year projection anticipates an elementary student population of 5,941 in 2018-2019, while the long range plan in place will create an elementary capacity of 6,300 by that time. We monitor the enrollments continuously so we will not be caught off-guard if the enrollment change is of a magnitude or direction not currently anticipated.

Our overall projections have been fairly accurate in recent years, but we continue to be challenged to predict which individual schools will have significant growth or drop from one year to the next.

@Newton Mom – I agree 100%. The bus fee issue is not just an Upper Falls issue. Charging any parents bus fees when the school is too far away to walk is just plain wrong and at odds with the principle of public education.

It’s been a hot button issue here in Upper Falls because our entire village is in that 1 – 2 mile range and we suddenly found ourselves having to pay to get our kids to a public school. It’s equally unfair to all the other parents across the city who found themselves in the same spot.

My basic questions on the cost of busing occasioned by your comment that the Angier to Carr transportation will cost $500,000 per year and will be paid as part of the Angier project are how this cost was determined, how much will busing of all Upper Falls and Margaret Road kids to Countryside, Angier, and Zervas cost over the same period and how was this cost determined? /Will all of this cost continue to be paid by parents? Z

Steve, WRT “Not mocking Joshua. I’ve noted all along that number crunching can be the precursor to sound analysis, and you generate raw data as well as anyone. I’ve also been telling you all along many of the factors that account for cost differences between schools and communities. It is your choice to acknowledge them or not.”

Unfortunately, Newton’s planning for large scale school building projects is spotty at best and the significant differences in cost are but the tip of the iceberg even if we were to reconcile the differences down to a statistically insignificant level.

Although Newton has a history of grossly underestimating the cost of capital projects that predates this administration, this administration seems to be keeping up with that tradition established under its predecessors. Whatever competence Setti was able to project with regards to capital planning in his first term, Matt Hills managed to undo it after debating Ted Hess-Mahan on Ken Parker’s show.http://www.newtv.org/video/common-ground/Ted-Hess-Mahan-and-Matt-Hills/

Hi Steve:
It seems you are addressing a number of issues at the same time on this thread. My concern focuses on enrollment projections.
The issue of projecting population enrollment in schools is weak science, at best. This city made a monumental mistake in the past, in my estimation, of selling off schools, in anticipation of continued future decline in enrollment in perpetuity, back in the 1980’s. I know there are some who argue it was still better to sell off back then, because of the cost of maintenance, etc., except, finding space to build, as well as the cost, coupled with other capital project needs, becomes overwhelming.
So, when you say long range, what does that mean? Do any of these projections, predict a peak past these currently sustained increases in enrollment these past years, and then eventual future decline? What are our longest range projections, and do any of these projections come anywhere near our historic high enrollment, from the 1970’s? If not, why not? Given that we have become more densely populated, I don’t think it impossible to eventually climb back near those numbers, for which, as far as I know, we have no ability to handle.
Having a long range plan which gives a cushion of 360 for elementary schools over projected enrollment(within just 5 years), doesn’t sound too comforting.
Also, have all aspects of the long range plan to bring enrollment to a capacity of 6,300 been approved?
Thanks,
Neal