Tuesday, 27 April 2010

Our next PM will be Clegg or Cameron.

Matthew d'Ancona was spot on in his piece for last night's Standard. The TV debates have changed everything; a politician who hasn't been through the wringer of the televised debates has no legitimacy to lead the nation. This also explains Salmond's panicked legal challenge; the next PM will also be recognised in Scotland as having greater legitimacy than Salmond, who will remain a regional boss in the United Kingdom rather than the leader of the Scots nation.

Since Clegg has ruled out Brown, this effectively condemns Labour to having to agree to Clegg as PM in any Lib - Lab coalition; the public just won't accept Johnson or any of the others waiting in Labour's wings, simply because they weren't part of the debate.

I like the clear-cut train of reasoning but my caution would be: with an imaginative fellow like Mandelson in play, don't rule out the coup de main - some clever pretext would be found

likewise, Diana Abbot is always saying, there is no mechanism for replacing the Labour leader in a hurry

but lines of logistics in politics are generally very short - and these are people for whom telling outright lies is merely a sophistic challenge

if, for example, Clegg was willing to deal with NuLab in return for full PR: - Brown is taken out the back and told to 'resign' with immediate effect- Harman is squared away with some bribe or threat that we can only guess at - Ed Balls loses his seat- HMQ is told that Alan Johnson can definitely form a government, and that no-one else can- he does so accordingly, and the Labour Party is invited to anoint him as leader at Party Conference, or not, as they choose; but in the meantime they will notice (a) he is Prime Minister anyway, and such a nice chap (b) the markets appear to like the smack of firm dictatorship, and (c) everything is tickety-boo all summer long - no need to do anything to frighten the horses until after September

I suspect that, desperate though they may be, the sky would fall before Labour would agree to serve under Clegg.

The most likely outcome of all this, as other have pointed out, is that the LibDems finally get their PR, after which we'll have big-government big-meddling high-tax greenie lefties in charge for ever.

That is the real disaster facing us, and it's largely Cameron's fault.

ND, whilst I agree that Labour are morally (immorally?) capable of what you say, I doubt whether they have the practical competence to do it. Don't forget that losers blame each other, just to add to the unsightly mix.