How Many NBA Champions Were Lucky?

In 1984 the NBA removed the bye in the first round for top seeds. Since then, every title team has had to endure four round of pain to hoist a championship trophy — although, teams pre 2003 did enjoy the luxury of best of five first rounds.

I had an fun question: how often has a title team faced elimination? As the saying goes: any team can beat any other team on a given night (For example the powerhouse 72 win 1996 Chicago Bulls lost to both the Denver Nuggets and Toronto Raptors) If a title team faced elimination then you can call them a bit lucky. Let’s break it down.

Season

Team

Playoffs Round

Situation

Elimination Games

2012

Miami Heat

Conference Finals

Fell 2-3 to Boston Celtics

2

2010

Los Angeles Lakers

Finals

Fell 2-3 to Boston Celtics

2

2009

Los Angeles Lakers

2nd Round

3-3 to Houston Rockets

1

2008

Boston Celtics

1st Round

3-3 to Atlanta Hawks

1

2008

Boston Celtics

2nd Round

3-3 to Cleveland Cavaliers

1

2005

San Antonio Spurs

Finals

3-3 to Detroit Pistons

1

2004

Detroit Pistons

2nd Round

2-3 to New Jersey Nets

2

2002

Los Angeles Lakers

Conference Finals

2-3 to Sacramento Kings

2

2000

Los Angeles Lakers

1st Round

2-2 to Sacramento Kings

1

2000

Los Angeles Lakers

Conference Finals

3-3 to Portland Trail Blazers

1

1998

Chicago Bulls

Conference Finals

3-3 to Indiana Pacers

1

1995

Houston rockets

1st Round

1-2 to Utah Jazz

2

1995

Houston rockets

2nd Round

1-3 to Phoenix Suns

3

1994

Houston rockets

2nd Round

3-3 to Phoenix Suns

1

1994

Houston rockets

Finals

2-3 to New York Knicks

2

1992

Chicago Bulls

2nd Round

3-3 to New York Knicks

1

1990

Detroit Pistons

Conference Finals

3-3 to Chicago Bulls

1

1988

Los Angeles Lakers

2nd Round

3-3 to Utah Jazz

1

1988

Los Angeles Lakers

Conference Finals

3-3 to Dallas Mavericks

1

1988

Los Angeles Lakers

Finals

2-3 to Detroit Pisons

2

1984

Boston Celtics

2nd Round

3-3 to New York Knicks

1

1984

Boston Celtics

Finals

3-3 to Los Angeles Lakers

1

And for those of you keeping score, here’s title teams that managed to avoid any season-ending games on their quest for greatness.

Season

Team

2011

Dallas Mavericks

2007

San Antonio Spurs

2006

Miami Heat

2003

Spurs

2001

Lakers

1999

Spurs

1997

Chicago Bulls

1996

Chicago Bulls

1993

Chicago Bulls

1991

Chicago Bulls

1989

Detroit Pistons

1987

Los Angeles Lakers

1986

Boston Celtics

1985

Los Angeles Lakers

The final tally? Of the 29 playoffs played since the removal of the first round bye – 15 title teams have faced elimination, while 14 have avoided it completely. What’s more, 10 of our title teams faced multiple games where they could have gone home! The NBA is a lopsided league. Teams that win the title very rarely come as surprises. However, given the length of the playoffs, it is important to remember a little luck can come into play. More than half of all of our title winners in the last three decades could have gone home. A third of them courted disaster multiple times. When we reward title teams, we should accept they were top caliber teams that outplayed strong opponents. We should also remember, that many of them also had a little luck.

Yeah, when you look at that chart, the Rockets really stand out. Especially when you look at the Bulls teams before and after the Rocket championships.
But the Rockets are clutch and I guess Houston is “Clutch City” right?

Chris,
Don’t quite agree with the terrible idea. Any time you turn something into single elimination you increase the role luck plays. This is a subject I really enjoy and I have more than a few examples I consider “lucky” that don’t even go to game deciders. I can’t wait to see your post on the subject! Please forward me a link when it’s up.

Speaking of Lucky Champions, why not look at teams performing way above their Season averages where deviations worked in their favor. I.E. 2011 Mavericks. Their series against the Lakers were a statistical anomaly if I ever seen one. Look at the the 3FG% Spread and Deviation. Holy…

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