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Sunday, 10 June 2018

The old guard in Campeche move to MORENA

La politica es la politica has posted 32 articles - one for each state in Mexico, including Mexico City - in advance of the July 1, 2018, presidential election. For links to all 32 articles, scroll to the bottom of this post.

The Mexican state of Campeche (the “Free
and Sovereign State of Campeche”), in the country’s southeast, is doing its
best to promote an image of itself a place that can conduct free and fair
elections. A big show was made recently when three trucks delivered electoral
material, including ballot boxes, to a secure warehouse. The president of the Electoral Institute of the State of Campeche
(IEEC) showed up for the photo op, explaining that the documents were to be
used on July 1 for the elections of local councils, municipalities and municipal boards. A private
company from the State of Mexico, Seriplast de México, is providing the
service, after having won the job via public tender.

Whether this will help
get the vote out on July 1, when of course the people of Campeche will also be
casting their ballots for president, is unclear. The state forms part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and outside of its capital – a port
town at the base of the Gulf of Mexico, also named Campeche – the population is
mostly in small villages. The state borders Tabasco to its west and Quintana
Roo and Yucatán to the north and northeast. The interior is mostly flat jungle,
with the Campeche having a southern border with Guatemala.

Recently, things haven’t been going too
well economically in Campeche. The state was one of the worst economic
performers in 2017. Like its neighbor Tabasco, Campeche relies heavily on the
oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2017 the Campeche economy contracted by
3.83%, and if the petroleum sector is added in then the state experienced a disastrous
negative 8.24% growth.

Hoping to give the economy, his legacy, and
his political party a boost, outgoing PRI president Enrique Peña Nieto announced
in April of this year that he had signed a decree to create Mexico’s final two
Special Economic Zones (SEZs), one of which is in Campeche, as part of a 50-billion-peso
(almost US $2.8 billion) stimulus package to attract investment to Mexico’s
seven SEZs. Critics point out that SEZs are usually placed in areas that are
critical logistically, such as ports, but that are economically depressed, with
local communities realizing few benefits.

However, Mexico’s development bank has
established a fund to encourage investment in the seven SEZs, all of which were
created during Peña Nieto’s administration. The government believes that the
promise of a zero tax rate for ten years, a differentiated customs system, a
flexible regulatory framework, and competitive infrastructure, will result in 700
billion pesos (US $38.7 million) in investment over the next 10 to 15 years.
They also expect the SEZs to generate well-paid jobs and increase exports.

But with such poor economic data, it’s
unlikely that splashy announcements for SEZs are going to resonate much with
the people of Campeche. When the economic numbers are as bad as this, people usually
look for someone to blame. The governor of the state, Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas,
belongs to the PRI. Two of the state’s three senators are also PRI, with the
third senator belonging to the right-of-center PAN. That means, in theory, that
the populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as “AMLO”), who is leading in
the polls nationally, should also pick up votes in Campeche.

Though the PRI still has significant
influence in Campeche, some old political hacks are running to AMLO for cover.
The former PRI governor, Fernando
Ortega Bernés (2009-15), is now Mexico’s ambassador to Uruguay, and by some
accounts is pulling strings from afar. Seeing the writing on the wall, Ortega
Bernés has been recruiting people to MORENA, the new banner under which AMLO is
running. To get things done, Ortega Bernés has been using a former PRI operator
named Ramón Ochoa Peña, who is running for mayor of Ciudad de Carmen under
MORENA, and who has been accused of influence peddling.

In the capital city, Campeche, the mayoral candidate
under the Campeche For All
coalition, Claudio Cetina Gómez, is running on improving the security situation.
This is odd, given that Campeche is not suffering as much from insecurity as
other Mexican states. The area where is there is cause for concern is domestic violence,
which as been in the news as rates are disturbingly high: over 50% of women in Campeche report being
victims of domestic violence. Despite this crisis, few politicians are running
campaigns focusing on this issue. As is so often the case, Claudio Cetina Gómez
is being kept occupied fighting off accusations of corruption.

Meanwhile, one of Claudio
Cetina Gómez’s competitors for the mayoral seat, PAN candidate Eliseo Fernández
Montufar, has been recorded encouraging citizens to go after local journalists,
and then having his henchmen vandalize their equipment and assault them. This happened
recently while Montufar was out on the street campaigning – he was angered at
being put on the spot, given that there are audio recordings wherein he is promising
certain businesses access and influence should he be elected mayor.

Hopefully, things will
remain peaceful in Campeche for the duration of the various campaigns. (The state has had one journalist killed during the drug war, back in 2010.) It looks
like AMLO and his MORENA movement will do well here. It also looks like corrupt
political operatives are already on the hunt to ensure they get a piece of the
pie.

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