spamalicious!

I hate 99.99999% of the spam I get.I cannot stand the stuff.And every night I fall down on my knees and thank God for email filters.But, I recently got an unsolicited message that was rather interesting and thought-provoking.So much so, that I wanted to share it in its entirety with you guys here.

You cannot spend 10 minutes at most any online poker room without running into someone complaining about receiving a bad beat or being outdrawn.I often hear other players speculating that Site X is rigged or something is “just not right.”Well, this guy, Roy Rounder, whom I had never heard of, offers one of the most sound, well articulated explanations for the “online bad beat syndrome” that I have ever come across.

One last thing:Now, Mr. Rounder didn’t just send me this message to earn frequent emailer points.He’s selling something.A poker program called SIT AND GO SHARK and also an e-book.I know nothing about either one.I haven’t used them, I’m not one of his affiliates, and I am neither recommending these products nor warning against them.I just wanted to share his letter.Here it is…

Makalani,

There are two types of bad beats:

BAD BEAT #1...

When you catch a monster hand but lose to a BIGGER monster hand.

For example, let's say you're holding pocket Aces and the flop hits A-6-6. That means you've got a full house.

Your opponent goes ALL-IN... and you call. You think your Aces are the best hand but they're NOT, because your opponent has pocket sixes, which gives him the four-of-a-kind.

BAD BEAT #2...

When YOU have the best hand and your opponent has the WORST hand but your opponent GETS LUCKY and wins the pot.

The flop hits 2-4-5 and the turn card is a 6, giving your opponent the STRAIGHT and causing you to lose the hand.

Now that's a bad beat.

And let's face it, the SECOND type of bad beat-- the one where your opponent gets totally LUCKY and outdraws you-- is the kind of beat that just plain SUCKS. And pisses you off.

In fact, the second type of bad beat is the kind you REMEMBER the most too. When someone says, "Hey man, how did your card game go?", the first thing that will come out of your mouth will be the story of that bad beat.

Am I right?

Now here's what's interesting...

MORE BAD BEATS HAPPEN IN ONLINE POKER THAN IN "REGULAR" LIVE POKER.

Literally, you'll see more bad beats happen in an online poker game than you'll see at a local cash game or in a casino.

If you play both online and offline poker, I'm sure you agree with this statement.

So what's going on here? Why would it be this way?

There are two popular "theories"...

1. Online poker is rigged.

2. There are more hands per hour, therefore it's an ILLUSION that there are more bad beats.

My opinion is that BOTH of these theories are WRONG.

Here's why:

First off, I genuinely believe online poker is NOT rigged. I mean, c'mon... Do you REALLY think these multi-billion dollar casinos would need to RIG hands?

They make their money from tournament entry fees and rakes... and trust me, they're making plenty.

OK, so what about the second theory?

Well, I do agree that there are more hands per hour in online poker than offline poker. There's no disputing that.

But I don't think that's a good enough reason...

Because my belief is that there are MORE bad beats that happen per X number of hands ONLINE than for offline poker.

For instance, let's say you played 100 hands. And let's say you caught two really bad beats for every 100 hands at a casino. That's 2%.

In online poker, you're likely to catch FIVE or even TEN of those really bad beats per 100 hands. That's 5-10%.

So the fact that you're seeing MORE hands doesn't explain the HIGHER PERCENTAGE of bad beats.

Still with me?

OK, so now let me give you MY "theory" about this.

It's not really a theory. Just good old simple logic, actually.

Here it goes:

The reason there are more bad beats in ONLINE poker is because the very NATURE of online poker leads people to PLAY DIFFERENTLY.

The CARDS and ODDS are the same.

It's the PLAYERS that aren't the same.

What I mean is that for online poker, a LARGE portion of players adopt the style of LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE.

Translation? Manic.

They act irrationally... play hands they shouldn't play... and bet way too aggressively for most given situations.

Why?

Because online poker isn't as "real".

The money isn't as real. I mean, heck... the casinos give you so much "free" money when you sign up, how COULD it feel real?

The cards aren't real. The chips aren't real. The table isn't real. NONE OF THAT STUFF EVEN EXISTS.

All you see when you play online poker are some silly little animations. And you hear some "clickity-click" sounds of fake chips.

That's it.

Nothing else.

Period.

And if you LOSE a game, all you have to do is make three or four mouse clicks and you're INSTANTLY playing another game.

And hell, you can PLAY ten games at once if you want!

You can literally play poker against 100 players AT THE SAME TIME!

It's a different world, my friend.

Now... let's get back to the bad beats.

The FACT that players are LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE is what leads to the SITUATIONS where bad beats happen.

Here's why:

1. Players bet their draws more or call large bets with draws or OK hands (i.e. bottom pair).

2. More players are involved in every pot.

3. The pots are bigger, since players are more aggressive.

When these conditions COMBINE TOGETHER, it creates an environment where there are a lot of BIG POTS and bad beats.

It's not that the cards are "rigged".

It's that the betting patterns and playing styles are DIFFERENT than what you're used to.

And when you combine that with the fact that you see more hands per hour, it inevitably leads to seeing a lot more "crazy" hands and bad beats than in regular poker.

OK, so now the obvious question becomes...

Is there any way to PREVENT bad beats?

The answer is yes and no.

Ultimately, bad beats will occur NO MATTER WHAT if you're playing good poker. Because to win at poker, you've got to be willing to take RISKS.

And most risks have a minimum 20% chance or more of NOT working out in your favor.

With that being said, there ARE ways to prevent a LARGE PORTION of the bad beats you'll see online.

Not only can you prevent them, but you can literally turn it around and make it YOUR ULTIMATE ADVANTAGE.

The key is to "tilt the tables" in your favor and USE the fact that players are so loose and aggressive to HELP YOU win more pots.

The way you achieve this is by adopting a SPECIAL playing style designed SPECIFICALLY for online poker...

My name for this "secret sauce" is this:

TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE SQUARED.

The concept of "tight-aggressive squared" is quite simple...

It starts with the logic that tight-aggressive is the most effective playing style to use in poker.

------------------------------------------------------------Disclaimer: I do not promote illegal, underage, or gambling to those who live in a jurisdiction where gambling is considered unlawful. The information within this site and newsletter is being presented solely for entertainment purposes. I will not be held responsible for any personal loss of wagers or damages you may incur. Anyone concerned about having a problem can contact Gamblers Anonymous for further information. ------------------------------------------------------------

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5 comments so far

Interesting article but I’m not sure I agree with his bad beat theory. For one, I don’t subscribe to the fact that there is more bad beats online than offline as a percentage of hands played. Also his theory that more people are in the pot isn’t what I have observed the few times I’ve played live in the casino. The casino games are definately looser than their online counterparts. But it was a good read none the less.

He’s oh so very wrong on a number of points. I’ve only skimmed, but it seems that he’s suggesting players online are loose, and that can only be in comparison to live play. Is he kidding?

Also, if someone is playing aggressively, if they wind up winning the hand against a passive player, I tend to consider that less of a bad beat than if you are betting into someone and they are just passively calling without correct odds, and hit their cards. If someone is aggressive against you, they have some folding equity there, and you are forced to assess whether you are really ahead or behind. Calling if you should have raised, and then being beaten might make you want to moan about the cards, but it’s your failure to play correctly you’d be better thinking about.