TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/30/13

TV: ESPN2

Storyline: If one play could sum up Baylor’s shocking 49-17 loss to Oklahoma State Saturday, it would have to be Jr. QB Bryce Petty’s inexplicable stumble inside the the 5-yard line on his way to a certain 28-yard TD run. It was a sign of things to come with Petty running free and clear, unabated by anyone or anything except his own two feet. The Bears’ national title hopes came crashing down right along with Petty, ending a dream run that seemed destined for Pasadena. TCU, meanwhile, was idle last week, but lost a tight one 33-31 to Kansas State its last time out.

The Breakdown: No one could have envisioned Baylor getting smacked in the mouth like this. Kansas State managed to slow the vaunted Bear offense, but completely shutting them down seemed out of the question. Sure, there were some key injuries, particularly on the offensive side, but freshman RBs Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin were filling in nicely for injured RBs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin and Jr. WR Levi Norwood was picking up the slack for downed Sr. standout Tevin Reese. But the Baylor running game was never allowed to get off the ground and was stuffed for 94 total yards and although Bryce Petty did well enough statistically, finishing with 359 yards and 2 TDs on 28-of-48 passing, he wasn’t himself and led more stalled drives resulting in punts than the Bears had seen all season. In short, the Baylor offense that had outgained every single opponent in total yardage by ridiculous margins except Kansas State was handily outgained by the Cowboys 594-453. Defensively, Jr. LB Bryce Hager and sophomore OL Spencer Drango were sorely missed, but the Ok State offense rose to the occasion and Sr. QB Clint Chelf, who wasn’t exactly known to light it up through the air, had a career day, connecting on 19-of-25 for 370 yards and 3 TDs.

TCU scratched and clawed till the very end against K-State, but the Wildcats put together a 9-play 44-yard drive with 2:13 seconds left that resulted in the game-winning field-goal and the end of the Horned Frogs’ postseason hopes. TCU now will not earn a bowl berth for the first time since 2004. The Horned Frogs posted 348 total yard in the game, 249 passing and 99 rushing and Sr. QB Casey Pachall finished 23-of-33 for 248 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception. Soph. RB B.J. Catalon carried 12 times for 71 yards and a score and Jr. WR David Porter caught 3 balls for 77 yards and 1 TD. Defensively, TCU surrendered 411 total yards to K-State, 257 passing and 154 rushing, while forcing two turnovers and allowing the Wildcats to convert 6-of-14 third downs.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games, 13-1 SU in its last 14 games, 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against TCU, 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against TCU, the total has gone over in 7 of Baylor's last 10 games and the total has gone under in 4 of Baylor's last 6 road games. TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games, 1-4 SU in its last 5 games, 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games, 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Baylor, the total has gone under in 5 of TCU's last 7 games and the total has gone over in 4 of TCU's last 6 home games.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -13 for Baylor, which should be an easy cover. In theory, the Bears could still be reeling from the loss to Ok State, but even at half-strength the Bears are still at least two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs.

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