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October 2009

October 31, 2009

What accounts for 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is larger than the emissions of every entire country except China? It is direct energy use by US households. Our homes account for 38% of US national emissions (626 million metric tons of carbon per year) and 8% of global emissions. Is there a way to attack this juicy target?

In a November 2009 PNAS paper, Thomas Dietz, et al, argue that behavioral changes within the household sector can cut emissions by 20% within 10 years, reducing national emissions by 7.4% (123 metric tons of carbon per year). This alone would be slightly larger than the total national emissions of France. The authors analyze 17 types of household actions, combining potential emissions reduction in each case with estimated behavioral plasticity (proportion of current nonadopters who could be induced to take action). This assumes that effective interventions (not just regulation and standards) are put in place quickly -- combinations of appeals, information, financial incentives, reduction of transaction costs for taking action, and social influences -- to break down barriers to change. The last item (social influence) could take advantage of both physical and Internet-based social networks to alter social norms.

Looking closely at the 17 behavioral changes, nearly 72% of the emissions reduction would require either one-time investments or purchases (weatherization, more efficient HVAC/appliances/cars), which would have to be balanced by financial incentives, cost reductions, as well as ongoing savings from reduced energy use. The remainder of the savings would depend entirely on low-cost or no-cost choices, such as lowering laundry/water temperatures, thermostat setbacks, line drying, driving behavior, etc.

I can see a combination of national and local campaigns to inform and mobilize people to act, supplemented by social influences. If schools and businesses joined the effort, the emissions reduction could be much more. The encouraging thing is that this doesn't depend on new technologies or complex policies. Efficiency standards are increasing for appliances and cars, but there will be a significant time lag to serious emissions reductions in a business-as-usual scenario. I think the authors are right that behavioral change can cut through that circuitous path and buy us valuable time. Cutting emissions in the near term is worth much more than cutting the same amount of emissions in later years.

October 13, 2009

From Bill McKibben's letter (sent today via CommonDreams) on the events, rallies and projects scheduled for Oct. 24 to publicize the most important number in the world:

That number is 350, as in parts per million carbon dioxide. In the last two years, the scientific community has made very clear that it's the maximum safe level for carbon in the atmosphere, at least if we want to have a planet "similar to the one on which civilization developed and to which life on earth is adapated." It turns out that people all over the world do -- in more than 130 countries, they are organizing thousands of actions that will take those three digits and sear them into the planet's consciousness. For instance:

On the melting slopes of Mt. Everest, Pemba Dorje Sherpa, who holds the record for the fastest ascent of the highest peak, will be spreading banners and signsOn the dying coral reefs of the Maldives, the government's entire cabinet will don scuba gear and hold an official underwater meeting to pass a 350 resolution to send to the Copenhagen summit

On the shores of the fast-drying Dead Sea, Israeli activists will form a giant human 3 on their beach, Palestinians a 5 on theirs, and Jordanians a 0-reminding us we need to unite across all kinds of divides for effective action.

If you go to 350.org, you can find the action nearest you -- and if there's not one yet you can figure out something grand to do yourself. There will be churches ringing their bells 350 times, and farmers mowing the numbers into their fields, and hip hop artists staging concerts across urban America -- it's going to be a great day.

And it's going to matter. Since so far our leaders haven't shown enough willingness to do what needs doing, scientists and citizens have to stand up for the planet's real bottom lines. We can refocus this debate, share the news about the planet's limits, and about the planet's possibilities when we respect those limits.

Already 89 nations have signed on to the target--the poorest nations on earth, for the most part. The ones that have done the least to cause this problem. Their citizens, rallying in Mombasa and Quito and Phnom Penh, need to see that the rest of us are joining them in this fight. Please help us at 350.org - it's going to be a day of great passion, great joy, and great connection. You don't want to miss it.

October 08, 2009

I just came across this quote by Eric Sevareid: "The cause of problems is solutions." This just highlights the need to anticipate new problems before they occur while we are busy solving current problems -- which is essentially a statement of the precautionary principle. The way we go about that in this hyper-technology world is through modeling scenarios and using rigorous analytical methods to try to understand what can happen in the future.

October 05, 2009

The UN-backed International Telecommunication Union will finalize a carbon footprint standard next month for information technology (IT) products, as part of a way to promote the role of ICT in developing a low-carbon economy. The goal is to reduce ICT's own product life-cycle emissions (direct impact) and further mitigate emissions through the adoption of ICT in other sectors (indirect impact). More at Business Green and ITU.

We are interested for several reasons. CleanMetrics depends on IT to deliver sustainability solutions, so we need to be very conscious of how we are using resources -- even if we are trying to do good. We also need to reliably advise our customers on the pros and cons using IT to replace old-fashioned ways of doing business. Finally, I am personally interested in quantifying the impact of IT in the ever-expanding entertainment and social networking applications. What are the resource requirements of digital entertainment and social networking? In the long run, can IT scale sustainably to a large proportion of the world's population?

October 01, 2009

The Global Climate Change Impacts in the US report (from the US Global Change Research Program) identifies ecological thresholds that will be (or have been) crossed as a result of climate change. The effects are predicted to be widespread and deep. Water resources will be stressed (including loss of natural water storage in the mountain snowpacks of the West and Alaska), agriculture will face huge challenges of adaptation, coastal areas will be at risk from sea-level rise and storm surge, and threats to human health will increase. (In addition to climate change, we have already crossed thresholds in the rate of biodiversity loss and the disruption of the nitrogen cycle.)