Protest breaks out in Iran as currency crumbles under sanctions

posted at 7:46 pm on October 3, 2012 by Allahpundit

Via The Lede and Business Insider, which has an eye-popping graph showing what’s happening to the rial right now. We’ve all got debate fee-vah tonight but I want to put this on your radar screen in case things start to spiral in Tehran. The point of nuclear sanctions was to put Iran’s economy in a vise so that public discontent would force the regime to either back down on uranium enrichment or risk destabilization from within. Here’s a destabilizing tremor now:

Clashes and at least one spontaneous protest erupted in Tehran on Wednesday over the plunging value of Iran’s currency, as black-market money-changers fought with riot police who were dispatched to shut them down, and hundreds of angry citizens demonstrated near the capital’s sprawling merchant bazaar, where many shops had closed for the day. The official media reported an unspecified number of arrests including two Europeans.

The clashes were the first instance of a violent intervention over the money-changing business in Tehran since the currency, the rial, which had been gradually losing value in recent years, dropped drastically over the past week, losing 40 percent of its worth against the dollar, to a record low…

“They spend billions of dollars to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, but now they say they have no money!,” one garment seller screamed as he was cheered on by others, witnesses reported. A team from Iran’s state television was nearly attacked when its reporter turned to the camera saying that the people behind him had been upset over a robbery.

Ahmadinejad’s been reduced to begging Iranians at press conferences not to convert their currency, which has lost four-fifths of its value this year, to something more stable. Israel, meanwhile, is sufficiently impressed that’s it veering away from the war track and towards calling for more sanctions. (Over the weekend, Israel’s finance minister claimed that Iran’s economy is on the verge of collapse.) One expert put it this way recently for WaPo:

“Two clocks are now running: a nuclear clock and regime-change clock,” said Clifford Kupchan, a former State Department official who now serves as a private consultant on the Middle East. “Sanctions have put a big hole in the revenue side of Iran’s budget, but the leadership doesn’t yet know that it’s on a cliff.”

“So are sanctions changing the nuclear program? No,” Kupchan said. “Are they buying time so the regime-change clock can run down? I’d say yes.”

Iran’s threatening to ramp up enrichment further if the current nuke talks fail, but they’re going to do that anyway. Question, then: How will Obama approach this if wider protests start breaking out and suddenly it looks like we’re in for 2009 redux? He’s taken tons of criticism, justifiably, for his passivity during the Green Revolution, but I don’t know if that necessarily means he’ll be more active during the next uprising. The Green Revolution was a backlash to Khamenei and the regime fixing the election for Ahmadinejad over Mousavi; the next uprising, if it comes, will be a backlash to hyperinflation that’s being driven by sanctions championed by … the United States. Considering that the nuke program is a source of Iranian national pride, how does Obama convince the public that it’s the regime’s stubborn refusal to give up the program that’s the cause of their misery rather than the west’s insistence on taking away their nuclear prerogative by strangling them economically? Maybe it doesn’t matter; if the regime falls, whatever replaces it will be desperate for economic relief and will have no choice but to play ball on nukes. Even so, it’s an odd position to be in diplomatically. And if we do reach the point where the regime faces extinction, it’s hard to believe that they won’t lash out somehow in major retaliation, either at Israel or at U.S. interests abroad or even right here. The next six months are going to be hairy.

Someone posted her name here on HA a couple of days ago and grieved for her again, but failed to respond to the comment. I for one have not forgotten and never will. Thanks to anyone who ever brings up her name on this blog.

Are you sure? Because you have yet to discuss the issue. I’ve seen you struggling, as evidenced by your fallacious assumptions, name calling, and personal attacks (all of which I’ve ignored), but I haven’t really seen you give any effort to discuss the issue. My arms and mind are open to you and your thoughts; put away those false assumptions – all your assumptions, really – and try to resist the easy path of personal attacks, which is not a substitute for substance. Let me hear your thoughts on the matter and let’s exchange ideas.

You have all my thoughts, ideas, and opinions of (especially you) on record, for all to see.

Liam on October 3, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Well I suppose Rome wasn’t built in a day. Maybe instead of trying to compile your thoughts and instead of asking questions, I’ll start and maybe that will be the stimulation you need. So let’s start with just a couple of small things, just a couple of erroneous assumptions or misunderstandings.

1. you call me, repeatedly, a liberal. i am not a liberal. unless you meant classical liberal, but i’m afraid that might just cause even more confusion. no, i’m not a liberal. far, far from it.

2. you said (very ugly, I might add), that I “whine and simper like a typical textbook liberal when we don’t send our money to our enemies/your selected friends.” Well we’ve already gotten the liberal part out of the way, so let’s focus on the latter part of the sentence. I am 100% against foreign aid of any kind. This is because I am against wealth redistribution; I am against taxation. I am against the government forcibly seizing property from an individual and giving it to a foreign government.

Now…would you care to take a moment to think this over and rethink a little bit? Maybe ask a question or two? Take your time. I’ll be right here.

so what you’re saying is the paramilitary 20-year-old gangs are going to beating the crap out of folks and killing some this weekend? What was it called? Jujubes?

Don’t forget the regime still trades covertly the old “royal” monies. Just because the rial loses it’s value compared to outside means nothing as they still have “valuables” and possibly Russian assistance…oil for gold anyone?

I get that you’re shy and feeling a little defensive. It’s ok. I am honestly not holding anything against you. Be the adult that you are. Take a deep breath, exhale a little, and tell yourself, “It’ll be ok.”

Do you want to try later? Seriously, you can log off, shut the computer off, maybe jot down some words and ideas on paper, and then try again tomorrow. I’ll go ahead and leave you with a few more starting points.

I am not a liberal.
I am against foreign aid of any kind.
I am against interventionism, especially military interventionism.
I do not believe in initiating force, and that force is only legitimate when someone initiates it against you.

An interventionist foreign policy is the foreign policy of T. Roosevelt, W. Wilson, F. Roosevelt, and progressivism as a whole. It was adopted by the neoconservatives, Democrats who left their party and joined with the Republican party.

Interventionism does more harm than good. In fact, it doesn’t do any good because it is inherently immoral.

He should ignore it. Iran’s problems are Iran’s alone. We should not interfere (yes, I know we already have and that we have been for almost 60 years). We shouldn’t be actively working for ANY regime change ANYwhere. Let’s quit this failed foreign policy and start minding our own business. Pull our troops back home where they can defend OUR borders, not someone else’s.

I hereby accuse YOU of stalking me, in public on this site, and appeal to Management of Hot Air for relief from you.

I call this again, in public, and seek to make direct contact with HA management in personal private contact if I can find their direct addresses.

Liam on October 3, 2012 at 11:13 PM

Now you’re just being silly. Your syntax is a little unusual, and gives me the impression that English isn’t your native language. If so, you’re doing a marvelous job with your new language, but could that be the source for your misunderstandings and confusion? Oh! Maybe that’s why you’re a little shy and defensive? It’s cool. All you have to do is ask questions. It’s no big deal.

Yes, that’s exactly what you should do because you are not making yourself look good here. I’m sure you feel that you have somehow been wronged but you should just stop because your attempt to indict Dante is making you look bad. Especially in the context of your earlier personal attacks against him.

Yes, that’s exactly what you should do because you are not making yourself look good here. I’m sure you feel that you have somehow been wronged but you should just stop because your attempt to indict Dante is making you look bad. Especially in the context of your earlier personal attacks against him.

He should ignore it. Iran’s problems are Iran’s alone. We should not interfere (yes, I know we already have and that we have been for almost 60 years). We shouldn’t be actively working for ANY regime change ANYwhere. Let’s quit this failed foreign policy and start minding our own business. Pull our troops back home where they can defend OUR borders, not someone else’s.

Dante on October 3, 2012 at 11:10 PM

That you Ron Paul? So, lets say Iran gets the bomb..YOu think that by us ignoring them they won’t attack us or Israel? do you think by ignoring everything that goes on outside of this country we won’t be harmed by that? you and other paulites like in a fantasy world

Crap, i wouldn’t be surprised if you don’t approve of our actions in WW2 going after hitler..do you disagree with that huh? should hiter of been allowed to stay in power and conquer the world?

Refresh my memory. Did we preemptively attack Germany? I seem to recall that Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, and then Germany declared war on us the next day. Then Congress declared war on Germany and Japan. Then we attacked Germany.

Ron Paul supported our involvement in WWII based on this chain of events. It is disingenuous for you to suggest otherwise.

That you Ron Paul? So, lets say Iran gets the bomb..YOu think that by us ignoring them they won’t attack us or Israel? do you think by ignoring everything that goes on outside of this country we won’t be harmed by that? you and other paulites like in a fantasy world

Crap, i wouldn’t be surprised if you don’t approve of our actions in WW2 going after hitler..do you disagree with that huh? should hiter of been allowed to stay in power and conquer the world?

sadsushi on October 3, 2012 at 11:26 PM

No, I don’t think they would attack us or Israel. But why do you bring up Israel? It isn’t part of the United States. Her affairs and relationships are her own to manage.

You’re right; I do not approve of our interventionism into WW II, and which was ultimately caused by our interventionism in WW I (the German part of WW II, that is).

But back to Iran and the bomb. Clearly 30+ years of threatening open warfare, engaging in clandestine warfare and sanctions isn’t working. So how about trying something different? The reason they are pursuing nuclear weaponry is a deterrent. We are constantly talking openly about bombing them. They’ve seen us invade surrounding nations. Of course they want weapons to deter other nations from invading.

But back to Iran and the bomb. Clearly 30+ years of threatening open warfare, engaging in clandestine warfare and sanctions isn’t working. So how about trying something different? The reason they are pursuing nuclear weaponry is a deterrent. We are constantly talking openly about bombing them. They’ve seen us invade surrounding nations. Of course they want weapons to deter other nations from invading.

Dante on October 3, 2012 at 11:32 PM

Have you ever seen some of the comments by their president and supreme leader? are you just totally oblivious to their true intentions? THEY WANT TO WIPE ISRAEL OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH..They have said this repeatedly… our bases are well within their striking range…make no mistake, if they get the bomb they will bomb us and Israel at the same time..but please, do continue to live in a fantasy world where only we control our destiny and nothing can change that

Mission Accomplished. Really. Way too many people, especially those like Liamr, are way too flippant about this issue. I’m guilty of it myself sometimes.

We are not ivory-tower libtards going on about some theoretical baloney that will affect nobody outside of our debate circle. We are talking about real national policies that are getting real people killed – possibly as we are typing out our posts.

The American public has been mostly shielded from the costs of our imbecilic interventions, first by revenge-minded conservatives and then by Obama butt-coverers in the media. Aside from increased taxes (which we already gripe about for a hundred other reasons), most people haven’t personally felt any consequences.

Have you ever seen some of the comments by their president and supreme leader? are you just totally oblivious to their true intentions? THEY WANT TO WIPE ISRAEL OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH..They have said this repeatedly… our bases are well within their striking range…make no mistake, if they get the bomb they will bomb us and Israel at the same time..but please, do continue to live in a fantasy world where only we control our destiny and nothing can change that

sadsushi on October 3, 2012 at 11:36 PM

Pull out a map of the United States. One with Alaska and Hawaii in their own little boxes. I guarantee that you won’t find Israel anywhere in the union. So why do you keep bringing it up? Israel is a sovereign nation. Let her work out her own problems. If she feels Iran is an existential threat, and believes that they will attack and “wipe her off the face of the earth” (an expression that doesn’t exist in Persian/Iranian), then she can handle it however she wishes.

Running behind, but this is what a ‘fellow’ Conservative said to another Conservative.

Not that I care, and I won’t be voting for Obama.

Maybe some play for the trolls here, if you want some ammunition.

Liam on October 3, 2012 at 11:38 PM

Should we take a look at Page 1 of this thread and find things that you’ve said? No. I’ve already said that I’m not going to hold it against you. I would just like to see you participate. It’s easy, but you have to want to and you have to try.

We are amassing huge debts, and will run into our own currency crisis once the EU sort themselves out in some way. The liberals will never in a million years accept massive cuts to domestic programs while keeping the overseas budget the way it is.

Also, the banking system sounds shaky and I believe that most of these major corporations are trading over-valued stock. These pols are interconnected with these private concerns and will not hesitate to bail them out and add to “our” debt.

As for the EU, I don’t see how they can sort themselves out? If I am right, they’re our biggest trading partner, and you can see that we Americans aren’t really in a buying mood these days. Can’t see it getting better here, so I don’t see how it can over there?

Have you ever seen some of the comments by their president and supreme leader? are you just totally oblivious to their true intentions? THEY WANT TO WIPE ISRAEL OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH..They have said this repeatedly… our bases are well within their striking range…make no mistake, if they get the bomb they will bomb us and Israel at the same time..but please, do continue to live in a fantasy world where only we control our destiny and nothing can change that

sadsushi on October 3, 2012 at 11:36 PM

Since you favor historical analogies, do you recall when Kruschnev stood in front of the UN and banged his shoe on the podium and screamed “We will bury you!” regarding the US? Secondary query: Do you recall the Soviet Union attacking the US after that statement was made? Final query: What would the results of a preemptive attack against the Soviet Union had been had we responded to Kruschnev’s verbal threats?

Just because the leader of a country says some crazy stuff, that doesn’t mean that it is a good idea to attack them.

An Islamic psycho not liking a nation of Jews? Well gee f*cking whiz, what a BIG SURPRISE. But according to my history book, the Jews have been kicking their fannies in multiple wars for the past several decades.

And by the way, I’d like to ask how long we are supposed to bail out people who chose to recreate their long-dead nation deep in Muslim territory? Yes, I know there are artifacts and locations dear to them. But…moving the most faithful followers into a location surrounded on three sides by your mortal enemies and the sea to the fourth???

I’d also like to ask what plans do they have when, not if, we are physically unable to assist them. Like for instance after we go bankrupt and our own homeland’s survival is at stake.

Man..lots of supporters of the evil Iranian Regime here tonight..really really sad to see…clearly Israel is the enemy here

Iran is just a peaceful nation, hellbent on a peaceful nuclear program..we should just let them and all the peaceful muslims over there live in peace with the zionist nation..actually no, get those jews out of israel..that’ll solve everything right?

Man..lots of supporters of the evil Iranian Regime here tonight..really really sad to see…clearly Israel is the enemy here

Iran is just a peaceful nation, hellbent on a peaceful nuclear program..we should just let them and all the peaceful muslims over there live in peace with the zionist nation..actually no, get those jews out of israel..that’ll solve everything right?

sadsushi on October 3, 2012 at 11:55 PM

No one here supports Iran’s regime. You’ve lost the debate due to lack of substance, so now you’re resorting to straw men.

actually no, get those jews out of israel..that’ll solve everything right?

sadsushi on October 3, 2012 at 11:55 PM

I would weep for joy if the Jewish people were safely evacuated to the USA – maybe to one of the desert states and an area the size of their nation made semi-independent. (and yes, I do know there would be a lot of issues to sort out.)

If for absolutely no other reason than this: that Jewish women and children wouldn’t go to bed hoping they won’t wake up to the sound of sirens, or the sounds of an all-out war for survival going on mere miles away.

But they’ve chosen to live in the nastiest hotbed of the world except for Somalia, and nothing I can personally say or do will change that. All I can do is pray that the One who’ll never go bankrupt will keep them safe.

Crap, i wouldn’t be surprised if you don’t approve of our actions in WW2 going after hitler..do you disagree with that huh? should hiter of been allowed to stay in power and conquer the world?

sadsushi on October 3, 2012 at 11:26 PM

“conquer the world”? With what?

They declared war on us, our military and our allies stomped them, end of story. It wasn’t any kind of a modern Crusade. We didn’t need any justification to go in there beyond them declaring war on us.

sadsushi, what will happen if we attack Iran? To what extent that you propose that we attack them? Bomb their facilities where we believe that they have nuclear weapons and then call it a day? Or would you support an invasion? If you support an invasion, then what? How long do we occupy? What are your long-term goals? How will such an attack or invasion enhance our national interests in the short and the long term?

I, for one, am tired of this knee-jerk reaction by some conservatives to support attacking other countries due to some perceived and ill-defined threat with no supporting plan or coherent foreign policy.

I don’t think that the Iranian leadership is “good.” I just am not convinced that attacking them is in the interests of the average American.

I should have been more complete in my rejoinder, mentioning that the Manhatten Project had the highest priority placed upon it – no expense spared, and no restrictions on raw matls/resources etc.

In peacetime, the end result would have taken much longer.

OldEnglish on October 4, 2012 at 12:05 AM

No worries, thanks for the response. However, I am still not sure what your point is here. I am assuming that you are saying that Iran is taking a longer time to develop nukes because they are not at war? Is that correct? If so, I don’t think that addresses the point that I was trying to make ie that we have been told that Iran is thisclose to getting a nuclear weapon for the better part of the last 30 years.

Either our intelligence has been completely wrong for the past 30 years or our politicians aren’t being honest with us. Maybe a combination of the two. If it is due to faulty intelligence over a LONG period of time, why do you believe it now? If the politicians have been lying to us all these years, why do you suddenly believe them? Something doesn’t add up here, to put it mildly.

I have as much faith as you with regard to intel – having lived through it since before WWII, but I am prepared to accept that Iran, due to her limited capabilities, would have had a very slow start in her quest for nukes. Her recent advances could be simply due to exponential progress, coming more to our notice in recent years.

The Allies had the advantage of a well-established industrial base, strengthened by having the help of the best scientists of the day.

Well everyone knows that radical religious nutcases are great economists and wonderful neighbors. Ask anyone. Thailand, Nigeria, India. You can hardly find a country that does not think that Muslims are wonderful citizens.

How long has Pakistan had nuclear weapons? Would you put them in the same category as the Allies in terms of their industrial base, etc.? Or are they more similar to Iran in that regard?

Her recent advances could be simply due to exponential progress, coming more to our notice in recent years.

Why are you sure that Iran has made “recent advances”? Where are you getting that info from? This goes directly back to my original point that the information that we have been getting on Iranian nuclear capabilities has been wrong for the past thirty years. What new information do you have that makes you accept that assertion at this particular juncture?

As did America, Pakistan saw an urgency in their chase for nukes (as did India). My point on time is that Congress would not have approved an open cheque book in peacetime.

As for the intel on Iran, it could either be wrong or inaccurate – events since 1979 cause me to err towards the latter, and I would much prefer to be safe than sorry. I don’t know that Iran is close to the bomb, but I would not like to find out the hard way. Assume the worst and work to prevent it.

As an aside; minding one’s own business, where it concerns war, is of little use, since, if one does not go to war, it will come to one – for war always rumbles.

As an aside; minding one’s own business, where it concerns war, is of little use, since, if one does not go to war, it will come to one – for war always rumbles.
OldEnglish on October 4, 2012 at 1:09 AM

That is bizarre. You are British, so you are perhaps unaware of our founders’ admonitions against foreign entanglements. To actively start a war because you believe that it is inevitable is immoral and unjust.

You make this claim, but then you are completely clueless about issues related to diplomatic and trade disputes. That’s you’re problem. You’re like a little girl that keeps turning off the thermostat in the middle of winter claiming that it’s bad to use energy. Someday you’ll grow up and understand that the world is less black and white than you want it to be.

You realize that the majority of the public was opposed to our entrance into the war prior to Pearl Harbor?

iwasbornwithit on October 4, 2012 at 1:34 AM

What on earth does this have to do with the fact that WWII wasn’t averted because of people like Dante? The war was well underway by the time Pearl Harbor was attacked. Let me know if you ever find a reason to claim that your comment was relevant.

Yes, I am a Keynesian in the pure sense – which requires budget surpluses during good economic periods. Do I really need to explain this to you every single time? I would think that even shallow learning curve types like yourself would have a clue by now.

What on earth does this have to do with the fact that WWII wasn’t averted because of people like Dante? The war was well underway by the time Pearl Harbor was attacked. Let me know if you ever find a reason to claim that your comment was relevant.