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The Market Moves in Eurovision 2016

Maybe it is a result of the first rehearsals, maybe it is the announcement of the running order of the semi-finals, possibly the betting public have simply given this year’s candidates a listen through but, whatever the reasons, there has been plenty of market movement amongst the Eurovision Song Contest contenders during the past fortnight.

France Now 4’s

France has been one of the biggest movers. We put them forward at 10/1 two weeks ago, they are now into a top-priced 4/1. That is not a total surprise although this price shift cannot be attributed to a recent warm-up night in Amsterdam where 26 Eurovision acts performed the song they will be playing on the big night.

By all reports the French singer, Amir, failed to hit the high notes there and also mistimed his lyrics towards the end of his song which is a little short of the 3-minute maximum length it and all songs can last according to the Eurovision rules.

Sweden has gone the opposite direction in the market. The once 2/1 favourite can now be backed at 12/1 with Ladbrokes. Finally people have cottoned on to the fact a person talking over a track is not singing and this is a song contest!

Ignore the Latvian Drift

There was another rehearsal night in London a week later where the Bulgarian and Latvian entries were well received. Latvia is curious, as they were trading at single figures at the end of May but 25/1 is now available with Coral and Boylesports.

Giving the song a second listen and watching some of the footage from the London warm-up night I can understand why it was once 5/1 and cannot make any sense of its current 25/1 quote.

Their solo male singer is sure to be well received by the young female set and the substantial gay man portion of the voting public will also like 21-year-old Justs Sirmais.

The opening bars of his song, Heartbeat’, sounds very much like last year’s winning tune (Sweden’s ‘Heroes’ performed by Mans Zelmerlow) but it develops into a track which would work well in clubs.

If the Latvians could pull a rabbit out of the hat and give Justs some stage trickery – which is what put Sweden over the line last year – their song could make a mockery at that 25/1.

Latvian Price Disparity

That price is the head scratcher as Latvia is just 7/2 (Betfair) and 4/1 (Paddy Power) to win the second semi-final. That makes it third favourite amongst 19 acts (in the second semi) fighting for a top-10 place in order to make the grand-final. It is priced-up at 1/9 to make the final.

These short prices come despite the fact the young performer has got the very worst of the draw, stepping out on stage as the very first performing act on the second semi-final night, May 12th.

Given all of this, 25/1 has to be big and, while there are distractions of backing it to finish in the top-5 (just 7/5 at Betfair) or top10 (4/9), Boylesports ‘win market’ is the only place to shop as they are not only going joint top-price but also offering ¼ odds places 1-2-3-4.

Radio Can Make the Bulgarian a Video Star

As for Bulgaria… The country has missed the past couple of Eurovisons but return with the same artist which represented them in 2011, Poli Genova, when they finished 12th.

100/1 was available a month ago but following much toe-tapping and clapping from the audiences watching Poli’s rendition of ‘If Love Was a Crime’ at three warm-up events the best price available now is 33’s.

Giving this one a second listen there is no doubting it has a lot of radio mileage, more than most, and with an ideal semi-final draw (performing 13 of 19 in the second semi-final), the solo female Bulgarian will surely be back to perform on the hallowed final night where she can breach the top-10.

That outcome is 13/10 with Betfair but the better betting proposition is Paddy Power’s 5/4 about Bulgaria being the ‘Top Balkan Country’. Their market in this department also incorporates Serbia (10/11), Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Romania, Greece, Slovenia and Montenegro – all of which are 25/1.

Eurovision gets underway on May 10th with its first semi-final. The second semi is on May 12th and final on May 14th.