It feels like only yesterday Envelope Gate came out of nowhere to stun the world, redefining Oscar history and setting a new high watermark for awards season flubs. But in fact, awards season is officially upon us, and in the midst of guild noms, critics' circle winners, and last weekend's Golden Globes, it's time to start making predictions for the Best Picture race. Here are 12 front runners for the 2018 prize.

Advertisement

Courtesy

1

"Dunkirk"

While Christopher Nolan isn’t necessarily an Oscar favorite, he did earn a Best Picture nomination for Inception in 2011, and his World War II epic feels more awards-friendly than anything else on his resume to date. Told from three perspectives—land, sea and air—this Nolan-scripted drama follows the fraught evacuation of allied soldiers at Dunkirk during the brutal battle. Best of all? It clocks in at a thrillingly pacy 107 minutes, making this Nolan’s shortest film since his debut. At a time when every blockbuster seems to be chasing the three-hour mark, brevity is worth some buzz alone.

Courtesy

2

"The Post"

The cast is impressive, there's no denying it. Steven Spielberg’s movie about the Pentagon Papers was always going to attract top-drawer talent, and this ridiculously stacked ensemble (Alison Brie, Carrie Coon, Sarah Paulson, Matthew Rhys, Bradley Whitford) is led by Meryl Streep as the U.S.’s first female newspaper publisher Kay Graham, and Tom Hanks as Washington Post editor Ben Bradlee. Their publication of the Papers sparked an unprecedented war between media and government, and for obvious reasons, this is a story modern America could stand to revisit.

Courtesy

3

"Get Out"

Jordan Peele’s savagely smart and timely horror movie about race in modern America stunned at Sundance this year and snowballed into an overnight phenomenon when it hit cinemas shortly after. While it’s very, very unusual for a movie released in February to sustain any Oscar buzz—most contenders are released in fall to be fresh in Academy voters’ minds—Get Out has already defied so many expectations, there’s no reason to expect it won’t buck the trend.

Advertisement

Courtesy

4

"Call Me By Your Name"

Since its debut at Sundance, Luca Guadagnino’s intoxicating Italian romance has gradually emerged as one of the year’s most passionately beloved (and awards-nominated) films. Chronicling the love affair between a 17-year-old (Timothée Chalamet) and an older graduate student (Armie Hammer) staying with his family for the summer, Call Me By Your Name is a raw and intimate love story that evolved from indie gem to genuine Best Picture contender.

Courtesy

5

"Lady Bird"

Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age drama is so universally beloved by critics, it held a perfect Rotten Tomatoes score until it was deliberately sabotaged and remains one of the best-reviewed movies in history. Gerwig’s script teases out the turbulent relationship between Saoirse Ronan’s teenage protagonist and her mother (Laurie Metcalf) with nuance and pathos. Lady Bird would be an extraordinary film no matter the cultural context, but in 2017 of all years, The Academy should—and hopefully will—go out of its way to honor stories about women made by women.

Courtesy

6

"Mudbound"

And speaking of exceptional films by women, Dee Rees’s textured period drama should put Netflix firmly into the Best Picture conversation for the first time. Set against the backdrop of the rural American South during World War II, Mudbound follows the fraught relationship between two families and specifically two veterans—one white (Garrett Hedlund) and one black (Jason Mitchell)—as both grapple with PTSD and the brutal, bigoted social structure to which they’ve returned. A supporting actress nod for Mary J. Blige (who plays Mitchell’s mother) is a no-brainer, but the film has a strong shot at multiple nominations.

Advertisement

Courtesy

7

"Phantom Thread"

Paul Thomas Anderson reuniting with Daniel Day-Lewis for the first time since the powerhouse There Will Be Blood was always going to be an attention-grabber, and Phantom Thread more than lives up to the hype. It’s a hypnotic love story that’s subversive and kinky in the most unpredictable ways, following a driven and prickly dressmaker (Day-Lewis) who meets his match in a strong-willed young woman (Vicky Krieps). The likelihood that this may be Day-Lewis’s final movie can only bolster its odds, though that’ll probably matter more for the Best Actor race.

Courtesy

8

"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Since its release last month, Martin McDonagh’s caustic, quietly moving third film has drawn praise and controversy in roughly equal measure—the latter in particular for its treatment of race—which might make it too risky a choice for the already-beleaguered Academy. Frances McDormand gives one of the best performances of her career as Mildred, a woman who takes matters into her own hands when her small town’s police department fails to solve the brutal rape and murder of her daughter. Call this one a dark horse.

Courtesy

9

"The Florida Project"

Sean Baker’s unforgettable, moving drama follows precocious six-year-old Moonee, (Brooklynn Prince) who lives in an Orlando motel with her young mother and retains her sense of wonder and adventure despite the bleak hardships of the adult world around her.

Advertisement

Courtesy

10

"The Shape of Water"

Director Guillermo del Toro considers this fantastical tale his favorite of all his films. The story of a mute woman (Sally Hawkins, a Best Actress frontrunner) who falls in love with a fish-like creature at the mysterious laboratory where she works as a janitor is certainly not for everyone, but those who can look past the interspecies romance will find a ravishing, unexpected love story with a lot of heart. —Julie Kosin

Focus Features

11

"Darkest Hour"

Gary Oldman stars in this biopic as Winston Churchill, who faced a momentous choice during his first days as Prime Minister in 1940: negotiate peace with Nazi Germany, or stand firm and take the United Kingdom to war against the Axis Powers. Directed by Atonement's Joe Wright, the film follows that decision and the subsequent period which Churchill himself dubbed “the darkest hour."

Courtesy

12

"The Big Sick"

Written by Silicon Valley’s Kumail Nanjiani and his wife, writer Emily V. Gordon, heartfelt character comedy The Big Sick has become one of the year’s unexpected breakout hits. The movie draws heavily on Nanjiani and Gordon’s real-life relationship to depict the struggles of a cross-cultural romance, which in their case coincided with Gordon (played by Zoe Kazan) becoming seriously ill. An indie rom-com might be a long shot for Oscar attention, particularly one released so early in the year, but this is an easy underdog to root for.