Oscar voters must love, not just like, a movie to qualify

Following its fifth straight box office weekend win and crossing the $1 billion mark in ticket sales, Black Panther appears to many to be destined for a best picture nomination at next year's Oscars.

The movie truly is a juggernaut, blending in high-wire action sequences with a culturally significant story.

There's just one problem.

Although very good, "Black Panther" is not great, and just because a movie makes a lot of money it doesn't guarantee the film a place at the Oscars.

It's conceivable that academy voters will rank the movie in their top 5, but earning best picture is not easy, even in an era where between 5 and 10 movies a year are nominated for the award.

Just this past year, audiences swooned over "Wonder Woman," but when it came time for Oscar nominations, the movie netted zero.

I don't think "Black Panther" will be shut out, with the idea that it should do well in technical categories like visual effects and sound editing and mixing. It also could earn a nomination for costume design for its creative yet traditional looking African garb.

But those the technical awards, something we've come to expect Marvel movies to be nominated for year after year.

The real question is whether "Black Panther" can buck the trend of superhero movies and earn nominations in major categories such as screenwriting, directing, acting, and of course, best picture.

When comparing the movie to other action or superhero movies, I think that is where "Black Panther" loses its steam.

It's a very good movie, but not great.

Craig Shoup(Photo: File)

There have been blockbusters that score nominations in the science fiction and fantasy genre, but they are few and far between.

Many will recall "The Lord of the Rings" franchise doing very well with academy voters, and that may be the one exception.

"The Return of the King" won best picture in 2004, but I liken that movie to a Hollywood throwback of swords and sandals epics like "Spartacus," with the magic of fantasy thrown into the fold.

But there are ways "Black Panther" can sneak into the best picture category.

With the possibility of having up to 10 movies nominated for best picture, it really is a "more the merrier" situation at the Oscars.

When Christopher Nolan's "The Dark Knight" (2008) was left off best picture, many wondered what it would take for a superhero movie to earn its spot among the best picture candidates, but at the time there were only five slots available in that category.

Lupita Nyong'o and Chadwick Boseman star in "Black Panther," a movie that has demonstrated with undeniable force the power of black-oriented filmmaking.(Photo: Marvel Studios)

Shortly after that outcry, the academy announced a return to old Hollywood, allowing 10 best picture nominees.

That strategy didn't quite work, because guaranteeing 10 spots can backfire in a year when there aren't 10 worthy films.

Thus the new standard of having between 5 and 10 movies nominated each year for the industry's top prize.

The math gets dicey when it comes to best-picture nominations.

The approximately 7,000 active academy voters submit a list of either their top five or their top 10 films of the year.

For a movie to get nominated for best picture, it has to appear on at least 5 percent of the top spots.

So if everyone liked "Black Panther" but didn't love it enough to make it their No. 1 movie of the year, it likely means no best picture nomination.

I can see "Black Panther" being consistently high up on voters' ballots, but not in the top spot.

Remember, the movie came out in February, and there are hundreds of other movies waiting to be released this year.

The fall is the best time to release Oscar contenders because it is more fresh in the minds of voters when they cast ballots.

One way that "Black Panther" could earn a best-picture nomination is if 2018 is not a very strong year for movies and no clear-cut favorites emerge by voting time in the fall.

But I believe "Black Panther's" fate will be the same as that of "The Dark Knight" — good enough to be included on many ballots, but not likely to be in the voters' top spot.

In 2009, the year "The Dark Knight" would have been nominated for best picture, it lost out to five films: "The Reader," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Milk," "Frost/Nixon" and the eventual winner, "Slumdog Millionaire."

Yes there are more slots available now, but I have a hard time believing "Black Panther" will wind up as the top choice for enough ballots earn a best-picture nod.