Thursday, May 6, 2010

The big story from North Carolina

The biggest story out of Tuesday's election results in North Carolina was not anything related to the US Senate race, but the surprisingly weak performances by Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler in their primaries. Kissell received 63% and Shuler only 62% against candidates who did not have the resources to mount really serious campaigns.

The poor performances by Kissell and Shuler and where they did poorly- the most liberal parts of their districts- are a clear indication that there is significant unhappiness with them on the left. The question now is how that unhappiness will manifest itself this fall.

There are three things I can see happening with that group of voters in November:

1) They could just leave the House race part of their ballot blank when they go to vote.

2) They could support candidates of the SEIU backed 'North Carolina First' party, which will presumably provide voters a choice to the left of Kissell and Shuler.

3) They may have gotten the protest vote out of their systems in the primary and could still vote for Kissell and Shuler in the general election when the consequences of not doing so could result in the election of a conservative Republican to Congress.

It's way too early to know how any of this will play itself out. But after seeing Tuesday's results I think the SEIU effort has more of a potential to really make an impact this fall than I did before. And I think Kissell and Shuler have to find a way to make at least some amends with the liberals in their party or there could be consequences for them further down the road.

How close is the North Carolina First party to existing, and would they really follow through on their goals?

Seems to me their big goal may be to gin up the kind of spin you mention -- that these politicians need to cater to the left -- without actually pulling the trigger on a third party that would certainly guarantee GOP victories.

Tom,Do you really - honestly think that (even)Democratic voters from North Carolina want a "MORE" liberal candidate - endorsed from, of all people, SEIU? Polls, from all over this country show that "liberals" represent only 20-21 percent of the American population. In case you haven't noticed - "liberal" has become, of late, a tag that spells virtual doom for any candidate that wears it. This is 2010 and not 2008 or 09. 16 months of Obama and his administration has dramatically changed the political landscape in this country. You Tom should know that as well as anyone. I'm totally surprised that you would think as you apparently do - WOW!!!

I would like to think Democratic primary voters accept a primary outcome as the legitimate choice of their own party, even when their favored candidate loses, and they rally around the primary winner in the general election. And grown-up behavior would be to do just that, except under exceptional circumstances. There are no such exceptional circumstances here, since we're talking about 2 guys who are trying to balance accommodating their party with accommodating their district, and that means no one gets their way all the time. On health care especially, if you're mad they voted "no," you should recognize the bill still passed and became law, and at least for me that would factor into my vote.

Voters sometimes carry spite a little longer, but I don't think we'll see that there, because in reality intraparty spite rarely lasts into the general election. Most of the time, the party's voters come together when it counts.

I certainly don't think a huge number of voters want someone more liberal in those districts but if 5% do it could be the difference between Kissell or Shuler winning 51-49 or losing 49-46-5. I don't know that those races will be that competitive but it's possible.

"3) They may have gotten the protest vote out of their systems in the primary and could still vote for Kissell and Shuler in the general election when the consequences of not doing so could result in the election of a conservative Republican to Congress."

3) is unlikely because the left is seriously underestimating the vulnerability of the Democrats this fall. Many on the left are still arrogant enough to think that the voters will endorse their radical left-wing agenda.

Shuler should point to his positive environmental record, which has already made a difference for his district. Not only did he finally finish off the worthless and destructive "road to nowhere", he even took the tough vote of supporting energy/climate legislation in the House.

Kissell should point to....well, I'm not sure what he can point to for the more progressive Democrats.