Frozen Meals - US - May 2012

In 2011, frozen meals generated an estimated $7.9 billion in total U.S. sales and grew by a microscopic 0.6%. Nonetheless, this was a welcome change from the previous two years of declines. Given the importance of the category to both manufacturers and retailers, both sides will need to work together to maximize potential sales opportunities. From a manufacturing perspective, companies need to develop exciting and innovative products to attract the attention of consumers who have a number of frozen meals alternatives to choose from.

In this report, Mintel evaluates the current state of the frozen meal sector, and where it is headed in the next five years. To a far lesser degree, chilled (refrigerated) meals and shelf-stable meals are also discussed in the context of competitive threats, as well as opportunities (see below for more details regarding refrigerated and shelf-stable meals).

Providing comprehensive analysis, this report addresses the following key topics:

How are each of the category’s major segments performing, and what kind of sales can be expected in the future? Which companies and brands are leading overall, and what can be learned from them to promote greater overall success for the category?

What are manufacturers doing in terms of innovation to create buzz around the category, and are they focusing on the attributes that matter most to consumers?

How are key market drivers, such as the poor economy and rising food prices, impacting the frozen meal market in both the short- and long-term? How will the competitive environment influence frozen meal companies’ decision-making processes in terms of responding to current and future threats?

What should frozen meal manufacturers do, and who should they be targeting in the years ahead in order to move the sector back into a growth state?

Which marketing strategies make the most sense to implement at a time when marketers are interested in integrating social and traditional media to stay top of mind with consumers, who are increasingly inundated with sales messages from a variety of formats?

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Table of contents

Scope and Themes

What you need to know

Definition

Data sources

Sales data

Consumer data

Advertising creative

Acronyms and terms

Acronyms

Terms

Executive Summary

Frozen meal market isn’t seeing sales heat up

Pot pies fastest-growing segment

Census figures add up to opportunities and challenges

Competition present in and outside the home

Supermarkets remain format of choice for frozen meals

Name brands dominate but sector may show signs of fragmentation

2012 could be better year if new innovation is an indicator

Traditional and online marketing both have a place in frozen meals

Today’s frozen meals consumer

Insights and Opportunities

Restaurant-to-retail branding

Reposition pot pies to create more usage occasions

Reduce emphasis on “diet” in weight management product names

Expand into refrigerated meals

Frozen meals through vending in offices, schools, and other foodservice channels

Inspire Insights

Trend 1: Prove It

Trend 2: Cool Vending

Market Size and Forecast

Key points

Frozen meals industry having tough time sustaining meaningful growth

Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen meals, at current prices, 2006-16

Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16

Fan-chart forecast

Figure 3: Fan chart forecast of frozen meals, 2006-16

Walmart sales

Market Drivers

Key points

Food-at-home prices rising faster than food away from home

Figure 4: Changes in food price indexes, 2009-12

Hispanics average highest weekly consumption; Asians favor BFY

Figure 5: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16

Shrinking household size creates potentially larger target audience

Figure 6: Household size, 2001-11

A return to dining out could eat into frozen meal usage occasions

Figure 7: Real disposable income, January 2007-January 2012

Manufacturers need to adapt to lower number of households with children