Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a broadarea of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to begenerally conducive for development of this disturbance over thenext few days, and a tropical depression will likely form early nextweek while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

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Numerous showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred milessouth-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with abroad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expectedto be conducive for development of this disturbance over the nextfew days, and a tropical depression will likely form early next weekwhile the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to 15mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

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Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization inassociation with an area of low pressure located about 350 milessouth of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected tobe conducive for development of this low during the next few days,and a tropical depression will likely form by early next week whilethe system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

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Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure systemlocated about 350 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, havenot changed much in organization today. Environmental conditionsare expected to gradually become more conducive during the next dayor two, and a tropical depression is likely to form before Tuesdaywhile the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

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I wonder if MJO will have anything to do with how much this can strengthen?

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Wow! Many models are being bullish with this as of 0z Oct 23. Impressive.

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Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deepconvection associated with the low pressure area located south ofMexico has become much better organized overnight. A fortuitous0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase inbanding and was also very helpful in determining the centerlocation. Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT passwhich indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently welldefined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropicaldepression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Theinitial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement withDvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.

The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degreesCelsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt orless during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow forsteady strengthening. Despite these seemingly favorableconditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much lessstrengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show apeak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days. Given theexpected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is abovethe dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than theSHIPS and LGEM. Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs andincreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weakenthe cyclone.

Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initialmotion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14. A strong mid- to upper-level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the BajaCalifornia peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestwardduring the next several days. By day 4, the cyclone is forecastto turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery ofthe ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overallscenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of thecyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize.The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensusand is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model.

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Although the depression is producing a considerable amount of deepconvection, the cloud pattern is highly stretched fromnorth-northeast to south-southwest. Microwave images from earlierthis morning indicate that the low-level structure of the system iswell organized despite the elongated appearance in geostationarysatellite images. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for thisadvisory.

A band of strong upper-level south-southwesterly winds lies just tothe north of the cyclone, and they could be contributing to itsaforementioned appearance in satellite images. The global modelsare in agreement in showing the upper-level wind environmentbecoming more favorable for strengthening during the next few days.The expected low wind shear combined with warm water and highhumidity values suggest that steady strengthening is likelyduring the next 72 hours. After that time, a notable increase insouthwesterly shear and cooler waters should end the strengtheningtrend and cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows aslightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, but it islower than the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continuedwest-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed isexpected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along thesouthwestern periphery of a high pressure system located overMexico. By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low isforecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slowdown even more and turn northwestward. The NHC track forecast isvery close to the multi-model consensus TVCN for the next 4 days,but lies to the left of that aid at 120 h in favor of the ECMWFmodel.

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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

still crossing fingers as i learned with patricia all things are possible.. well outside cone means nothing at all with a funky tormenta and a magnet in pocket... coordinates of 106 ° 28'34 " west longitude and 23 ° 15'25"(marina mazatlan). might be some nice sunset pix here, hopefully

The cyclone has become better organized during the last severalhours. Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core isforming, with a few curved bands surrounding this centralconvection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University ofWisconsin are slightly higher. In addition, an ASCAT pass around1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. Based onthese data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt.

The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain ina favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days.These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water andhigh mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, orperhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond thattime, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters,and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend andinduce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from theprevious one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Amid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymourwest-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next fewdays. After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep-layer low pressure moves eastward toward California. This patternchange will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and thennorthward in 4 to 5 days. The models have shifted considerably tothe right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecasthas been adjusted in that direction.

Hoping his remnants will merge with a cold low pressure system that is due to hit us next Thursday/Friday (he'd have to move a bit faster than the projections all for). Looks like the track is just right but the timing needs to spend up a little.

CaliforniaResident wrote:Hoping his remnants will merge with a cold low pressure system that is due to hit us next Thursday/Friday (he'd have to move a bit faster than the projections all for). Looks like the track is just right but the timing needs to spend up a little.

Mid to low level moisture from the storm will make it up your way as the storm will decouple in 3-4 days.