Let's ignore the other contenders such as Carl Lewis for a moment and assume Bolt and Phelps are the most well know Olympians due to media, etc.

Can Bolt surpass Phelps?

I post this now before Bolt is favoured to be the first back to back 200m winner and then the 4x1 AND may compete in the 4x4 relay.\

Then he's 29 in 2016, although he'll be closer to 30.

On his age for 2016, Linford Christie did win the 100 at 32, although 28 is the 2nd oldest._________________Legends Never Die. They Breathe Through The New Generation.100 Greatest Quarterbacks of All Time

Different types of dominant. Bolt is THAT much better than his competitors, but Phelps is the best at multiple things. People really underrate just how incredibly hard it is to be the best of the best in different swimming strokes._________________To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift-Steve Prefontaine

The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.

I don't see him being #1 by 2016, his peak is now and perhaps up to 2014.

Bolt was originally a 200/400 prodigy, it wasn't until after he turned profession he focused on the 100/200. 5 years ago he ran 45.3 and two years ago he ran 45.8 in a sort of a "fun run" February meet. At that point I doubt he did much, if any, track work. It's not inconceivable that he could run low 44s in peak shape. In fact two years ago he ran a 4x4 at the Gibson relays (still an early season March meet) in 43.58. That is enough to put him in the relay.

People have been speculating that he would run the 4x4 and he even said he wouldn't right off the possibility but I don't think he will. Seems to me to be a ploy to get his name out there (which he love oooo so much)

People have been speculating that he would run the 4x4 and he even said he wouldn't right off the possibility but I don't think he will. Seems to me to be a ploy to get his name out there (which he love oooo so much)

Indeed. We all know how tough it is for Usain Bolt to get his name out there..._________________To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift-Steve Prefontaine

The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.

No Bolt is dominant but wont be.keeping this up by 2016 and wont finish near as decorated as Phelps..

The argument isn't who will have more medals, Phelps will win that battle just because as a swimmer you'll have way more opportunities to win medals.

IMO Bolt is way more dominant.

This. It's not like there are different styles of running for him to rack up medals in. There is no backwards 100m sprints or anything like htat.

Agree 100%. Planned on suggesting this a while, but figured I'd get lambasted by swim fans.

As soon as they add a 150m, a 4x200m relay, a 100m lunge etc, then we can see if Phelps really matches up to Bolt! Until then, Bolt gets it.

That said, I'm still partial to Johnson, but seeing as Bolt - as suggested by the BBC - is being looked at for the 4x400, in order to help him equal the 4 golds at one Olympics, I may have to rethink that.