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A perfect example of why just looking at WAR is not a good way to evaluate talent. The thing that really pulls Bourjos ahead, his 2011 season, is potentially one he won't repeat any time soon. I think he will, but Bourjos was actually quite good offensively that year, and had a big drop off this year. There are other reasons for that, but if Bourjos only puts up replacement level offensive numbers from here on out, and year he isn't completely dominant defensively, he'll only be a 2 WAR player at best. Trumbo should very well be good to be a 3 WAR guy going forward, assuming his fielding is replacement level, which I think is reasonable. And that's without getting into how flawed WAR is or anything of that ilk.

Oh, and Bourjos is definitely not >>> Trumbo. There's good, valid arguments either way, but as far as I can see, it's based on preference and your faith in either guy. All else equal, I personally would rather trade Bourjos, mainly because his elite fielding isn't as necessary when we have another elite defensive CF, whereas we could still definitely use Trumbo's production. If things were different, that opinion could definitely change. But in no way is either guy that much better than the other.

Originally Posted by Pinstripe power

one guy doesn't take you from yearly playoff conteder to the worst team in football

Why are people still acting like runs saved are somehow different than runs created? They're not. Bourjos more than makes up for his bat with the skill he has with the glove.

And, more and more teams are realizing that having two capable (or, in our case, great) CFers instead of one is a benefit, not a liability. A Bourjos-Trout-Hamilton OF would be one of the single best fielding OF in baseball, and even with Bourjos lackluster bat, it'd be one of the best offensive ones as well. We don't need Trumbo playing out of position to make the team better.

I'll admit that part was a bit of bait, just to see what you'd say. Of course he definitely can, hence the word potentially. But, considering how far he fell, there's a real possibility 2011 was a fluke year(although I don't necessarily believe so), whereas Trumbo, you know, improved his numbers across the board and hasn't had such a regression yet. Note that I also mentioned Bourjos possibly being a replacement level bat going forward, which he could easily exceed, but is also a 6 run upgrade on 2012.

As far as runs created and runs saved, I'd say there's a difference. Not so much in end result, but definitely in projection. Basically, in any given year, any defensive projection has to be taken with a grain of salt. You probably do with any projection, but defense can be off the charts. It isn't exactly uncommon for someone to post a 15+ UZR one year and fall completely off the board the next. We know Bourjos is incredibly talented, but he's not immune from this either. Even in his big 2011, his UZR was only 7.5(which is still pretty good, but not best-in-the-majors type level that he probably can produce to). On the other hand, Trumbo's offense is probably project decently enough and rely on to be semi-constant on a year-to-year basis.

In terms of how it benefits the team, or team WAR, at least, it gets even foggier. Ignoring any positional runs attributed(Trout moving to CF pretty much absorbs any positional difference from Bourjos to Trumbo, so the effect on total team WAR is the same), it's pretty reasonable to project Trumbo will rack up 40 RAR(assuming replacement level defense and baserunning, which IMO is indeed reasonable). For Bourjos to do the same, he'd either need to bring his offense back up above replacement level(which he definitely could do), put up absolutely ridiculous defensive numbers on a consistent basis(which he is capable of), or both. If he's merely a replacement level hitter, he'd probably need to put up a UZR in the 18 range, although if he can generate 5 or 6 runs, that numbers drops to 12 or 13. And that's just to match Trumbo. Otherwise, our team WAR as a whole drops by having Bourjos in there over Trumbo(even if Bourjos' WAR is better than Trumbo's).

Originally Posted by Pinstripe power

one guy doesn't take you from yearly playoff conteder to the worst team in football

Another thing is wells will start over burjos . Trumbo will start over wells

Why all the Trumbo haters? All PB has proven is great defense. His defense will be wasted if not playing CF. Trumbo has proven he can hit, albeit streaky. How many gold glovers play actually LF? We need fear in our line up. We've never had that as long as I've been a fan(35yrs).