A 2017-2018 Championship and English Football League Preview

Away from the hype of the several hundred million dollar transfers of the EPL and European leagues and big time friendlies comes the kick off of the 2017-2018 English Football League season this weekend. And the hard slog that is the full 46 game season begins.

Headlining the 72 team – 3 division strong Football League is the Championship, often referred to as the toughest league in Europe. It is also one of the most popular, sitting just behind the Italian and French leagues on average attendance last season. Although having a team with a supporter base like Newcastle helps to boost that number.

It is also a graveyard of former EPL regulars, and not many of them bounce back straight back either. In fact, some of them slide even further down like former EPL title winners Blackburn.

Given the money that they come down with, it is always best to start off with assessing the chances of the fallen EPL sides from last season.

CAN ANY OF THE RELEGATED SIDES BOUNCE STRAIGHT BACK?

After last season when the Championship sides faced the daunting prospect of EPL giants Newcastle United and Aston Villa, and regular yo-yo club Norwich City all coming down in the one season, the other 21 clubs will not be as fearful in 2017-2018 as the teams coming down lack the same strength in comparison. In saying that, only Newcastle made it back to the EPL at their first attempt.

Sunderland followed Aston Villa from the previous season where they couldn’t sustain the continued battles against relegation every season. Once Big Sam had left the club to manage England they looked doomed pretty early in the season and just never looked likely under the fading David Moyes. The Black Cats will be hoping they don’t repeat the same lack of performance shown by Aston Villa in their first Championship season last year as they finished 13th. But they did show the same poor output as Aston Villa did in their relegation season.

It hasn’t started off well with Darron Gibson calling his team s**t and saying they don’t give a f*** in a rant caught on social media. And they have sold their best two players from last year Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford and goal scorer Jermain Defoe. With their two best gone and a team who looked disinterested at times last season, Sunderland may be in for a shock this season. Quick verdict: upper midfield.

Middlesbrough looked like a Championship team through a lot of the EPL last year, and it is exactly where they ended up after a dreadful run of form in the second half of the season. It cost manager Aitor Karanka his job, and former EPL management experience arrives in the shape of Garry Monk. He obviously sees something as he has left Leeds United as one of their most successful managers in a decade to join Boro. They have a net spend of -25M GBP (42 Spend 17 Sell), showing some of the financial clout that comes with the EPL parachute payments, Britt Assombalonga being the headline at 14M. They look the most prepared to battle for the playoffs, and their style which didn’t suit the EPL may be better suited to the Championship, although Garry Monk will be hoping to change that a little. Quick verdict: Playoffs.

Hull almost survived in the EPL last season thanks to Marco Silva’s arrival mid season, and whilst he was rewarded with a new job in the EPL with Watford, Hull drop to the second tier again and are looking for their third promotion in a decade. They have sold 25M GBP worth of talent, and don’t have a great deal to show for the 5M spent coming in. They have a new manager in Leonid Slutsky, who despite his 50% record for Russia and Russians clubs is a real unknown, and they could even be candidates for a surprise double relegation. They do have the parachute payments so have the money to turn it all around. Quick verdict: relegation scrap.

IF NOT THEM, THEN WHO?

So in our opinion only one of the three relegated sides will be fighting at the sharp end of the second tier in 2017-2018, so who will be the other teams chasing the EPL riches? Unlike last season with the big clubs coming down, it is a much more open affair this time around. And so many teams have genuine claims for promotion.

Aston Villa are the biggest team in the Championship now that Newcastle have departed after their one season stay, and with a season that ended in 13th they have hopefully learned a few lessons from their first taste of second tier in decades. They have recruited no less than John Terry from Chelsea, and it will be interesting to see if he adapts to the lower league after a stellar career in the EPL and Champions League. They’ve recruited the excellent Ahmed Elmohamady who has gone up with Hull twice in recent seasons, and Australian Mile Jedinak remains at the club. Manager Steve Bruce gets a full year at the helm and has guided teams into the EPL four times before.

Sheffield Wednesday have made the playoffs two years running, and are hoping to make it third time lucky, and the way sport goes had better do it soon or risk losing their chance. They have recruited well to an already strong squad bringing in proven goal scorer at Championship level Jordan Rhodes and the excellent George Boyd from Burnley. Manager Carlos Carvalhal enter his third season with the club, a fine achievement in itself given the average lifespan of a manager in this division rarely rises above one year. That continuity is a good thing. Plus they have the added incentive of the Sheffield rival United to beat this season.

Fulham ended the previous season as one of the form teams, and went on a run from the midfield to make the top 6 and playoffs. They were knocked out by Reading and are burning to have another go. They have added quality and kept most of their squad from last season despite some interest from other clubs, and they have manager Slavisa Jokanovic who took Watford up a few seasons ago.

Wolverhampton Wanderers, aka Wolves, have new Chinese owners and they are determined to spend big to help their side get into the EPL. Fresh from spending 15M GBP on Heider Costa from Benfica in the January 2017 transfer window, they have forked out another 18M GBP for Ruben Neves from Porto. That Portuguese flavour coincides with new manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s arrival, and he’ll be doing well to be in charge by the end of the season as Wolves sacked two managers last season. Those big money signing will need to fire early.

In brief Derby County are always fancied for promotion, and as ever have a strong squad, and in Gary Rowett a manager who was sacked for having Birmingham only 7th on the table early last season. That side just survived relegation.

Norwich have gone down the Huddersfield path and hired a relatively unknown German manager, and have done a bit of a clean out of their relegated squad from 15-16. And have pedigree for promotion.

And Leeds, who faded badly to just miss the play offs last season, have a new owner who should provide a little more stability than the previous regime, and have been busy in the transfer window too.

ANY SURPRISES?

Every year there’s a surprise or two, Reading last year were amongst the favourites for relegation and finished third. Few would have picked Huddersfield to be up with the big boys either, so below are some nominations for potential surprise promotion candidates at odds.

Nottingham Forest have new owners, but whether it is a case of meet the new boss, same as the old boss is yet to be seen. The new owner is Evangelos Marinakis who also owns the big Greek club Olympiacos, and they have hired proven Championship goal scorer Daryl Murphy who still proved effective at Newcastle last season when given the chance. They just avoided the drop last year, so a play off spot will be some turn around.

Sheffield United are the Champions from League One, and sides from the third tier have a reasonable record at making it two promotions in a row. Southampton and Norwich made the double jump in the past, and the Blades long awaited return to the second tier after five years in League One may be a quick one if they can take their form from the previous season into this season. They finished the season with 100 points, 14 clear of second placed Bolton, and won 10 of their last 11. They may lack the quality of other teams, but have the form and value.

Finally as an Ipswich Town fan, given the consistently mediocrity in their status as the division’s longest serving team at 16 seasons and counting, it would be nice if at season’s end that there is a surprise. Although they’ve recruited well, so have a lot of teams, and it could be a case of being careful what you wish for, as the surprise could be relegation instead. Can’t see if happening at this stage.

WHO COULD BE GOING DOWN

If Ipswich Town aren’t going to be one of the teams to go down, then who are the likely candidates?

Burton Albion did some job to survive last year, and are lucky to get to a second season where similarly sized clubs in the past like Yeovil and Milton Keynes only get the one chance to shine. But second season syndrome will be a factor and surviving for a second time looks a task too hard in 2017-18.

Birmingham City just survived last season, and that was in large parts thanks to manager Harry Redknapp who was hired with just a handful of games left, and did the job. But whilst those managerial signings can be effective in keeping a side up, they very rarely work the following year. Whether Harry Redknapp is still effective is the big question, the squad only looks slightly stronger than last season.

Queens Park Rangers are great value to drop down a division, and they were out of sorts at times in 2016-17. Twice they had a 6 game losing streak, and given the competitiveness of the league this year can’t afford to do that again. Despite leading Blackpool to EPL promotion in recent years the question is on the manager, and the lack of transfer market movement won’t help.

Bristol City will struggle without the goals of Chelsea loanee Tammy Abraham, who scored 23 goals in 41 appearance last season.

Barnsley always seem to be in the betting for the bottom three, but defied that last season with solid midfield finish, but can they do it again.

The promoted clubs from League One are always mentioned for relegation too, but with Sheffield United looking strong it leaves Bolton and Millwall as the most likely. Although they both look like they are capable of surviving.

CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

With all the content above, it’s time to predict the outcome of the season ahead now. So here goes.

SOME POINTS OF INTEREST IN THE LOWER DIVISIONS

If it is still not enough content, how about a quick trip through the two lower divisions of League One and League Two as well.

HARRY KEWELL BEGINS MANAGEMENT CAREER AT CRAWLEY TOWN

After being dismissed as Watford Under 23 Coach, the Australian footballing big name has taken over at League Two side Crawley Town. He have his work cut out as they have been on the slide for a few seasons now and finished 19th last season, avoiding the drop by 5 points. He is young for a manager at 38, but doing it the right way by starting at a lower league side.

NON LEAGUE FA CUP GIANT KILLERS RETURN TO FOOTBALL LEAGUE

One of the big stories of last season’s FA Cup was a reserve goal keeper for Non League side Sutton eating a pie on the bench and being sacked for it.

The other was the stunning run of upsets by Lincoln City. The Non League side made it to the quarter finals and were eventually beaten by eventual champions Arsenal. They carried that form through the rest of the National League and were promoted as Champions.

There’s a good record of Non League Champions getting a double promotion, so a good dark horse for the title.

VEGETARIAN FOREST GREEN ROVERS JOIN THE FOOTBALL FOR THE FIRST TIME

The other promoted side into League Two join the Football League for the first time in their 118 year history is Forest Green Rovers.

Based in Gloucestershire west of London, this club like to do things differently. They pride themselves as a green club, and actually offer nothing with meat in it at their club’s eateries. They are probably the greenest club in football with awards for their eco pitch, installing solar panels and even have a robot mower. Like any new club they have ambitions to get to the Championship.

BLACKBURN ROVERS THE FIRST EPL WINNER TO DROP TO THE THIRD TIER

Not too far back in the past the owners of Blackburn sacked manager Sam Allardyce, unhappy with the style of football for the then midfield EPL side.

Fast track a few seasons down the track and they are now in the third division, and won’t find it easy. It took a blig club like Sheffield United five season to get out of it.

HOPEFULLY IT IS THE YEAR ALL THE DIFFICULT OWNERS SELL UP AND GIVE CLUBS A BREAK

2016-2017 saw a season of several club’s protesting their owners, all of them with justification.

The worst was Leyton Orient, who demise from being a penalty shoot out shy of the Championship a few seasons ago to Non League was completed last season. Thankfully their owner sold up and there’s hope for the new season.

That probably leaves 1987 FA Cup winners and regular EPL side Coventry City as having the worst relationship with their owners, who should do the right thing and sell up. They dropped to the fourth tier League Two last season and need something to change before they too drop to Non League.

Things could also be better at Blackpool and Charlton Athletic after protesting at games throughout last season. One can only hope for these sides that they get new ownership and can start enjoying their clubs more.

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