From BOM yesterday.Looks a bit hopeful of a cyclone forming but it will become clearer in the next few days as it development continues.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Saturday 25 November 2017for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 28 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 9.7S 109.5E, approximately 180 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to persist in this general area over the weekend. It's motion next week is uncertain but is largely determined on its development. It has a Low possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday with the risk increasing from Monday where it is likely to be located over open water well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:Low

Monday:Moderate

Tuesday:Moderate

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get. - Mark Twain

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Low

Tuesday:Moderate

Wednesday:Moderate

A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.

Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:Monday:Very LowTuesday:Very LowWednesday:Low

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get. - Mark Twain

BOM cyclone outlook looks interesting for later this week.Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:Nil.

Potential Cyclones: A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Low

Tuesday:Moderate

Wednesday:Moderate

A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.

Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Low

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get. - Mark Twain

WTXS21 PGTW 270200MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY 245NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261943Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED MASS OF CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LIKELY TURN POLEWARD THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280200Z.// NNNN

A Tropical Low was located at 1:00 pm CXT near 8.2S 98.8E, that is 800 km westnorthwest of Christmas Island and slow moving.The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday asa Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squallyconditions are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system isexpected to turn towards the southeast as it continues to intensify.

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.

Yea 95s is very week and gets absorbed by 96s which heads towards the coast as a weak cyclone or an intense low according to GFS and EC. GFS has the two doing the Fujiwara effect before forming into one cyclone.