Rand Paul holds lead over Jack Conway in Kentucky Senate race

Jul. 31, 2010

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ABOUT THE POLL

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews conducted July 27-29 with 568 likely Kentucky voters by SurveyUSA, using a recorded questionnaire. Respondent households were selected at random using a random digit dialed sample provided by Survey Sampling of Fairfield, Conn.The margin of error is a plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal/WHAS11 is prohibited.THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® conforms to the standards of the National Council on Public Polls.

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A week before the traditional start of the fall campaign in Kentucky, Republican Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by eight percentage points in the U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll, conducted last Tuesday through Thursday by SurveyUSA, found that 51 percent of likely voters would support Paul if the election were held today, while 43 percent said they would vote for Conway.

Rand Paul has thus increased his lead slightly since the last Bluegrass Poll, taken shortly after the May 18 primary. It found Rand Paul leading by 6 points.

Rand Paul's campaign said Saturday that it was pleased with the results.

“Dr. Paul is honored that his support remains strong and that so many Kentuckians share his deep concern about unsustainable debt and spending in Washington,” Jesse Benton, his campaign manager, said in a statement.

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The Jack Conway camp said they weren't concerned about the poll numbers.

“There are going to be a lot of polls out between now and November,” said Allison Haley, Conway's spokeswoman. “We feel there is a big contrast between the two candidates, and voters will see it in Jack Conway's fight to create jobs and Rand Paul's risky ideology. We feel confident going into the fall.”

The poll’s release comes just six days before the annual Fancy Farm Picnic at St. Jerome’s Catholic Church in Graves County, which has traditionally signaled the beginning of the general election campaign season in the state.

Both Paul, a Bowling Green eye surgeon, and Conway, Kentucky’s attorney general, will be the main focus of attention when they speak at the event.

They are running to succeed Sen. Jim Bunning, a Republican who decided not to seek a third term after finding it difficult to raise the money he said would be needed to win the race.

The latest Bluegrass Poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, meaning that there is a very slight chance Conway could actually be ahead. However, it is much more likely that Paul holds a lead nearing double digits.

The poll found that Paul’s 51 percent support hasn’t changed since the May poll, while Conway’s support has fallen two percentage points to 43 percent.

He is ahead by 19 points among men, while Conway leads by 3 points among women. Paul leads among all age groups, with his biggest advantage coming from those over age of 65, who give him a 17-point advantage.

Eighty-one percent of self-identified conservatives back Paul, while 63 percent of moderates and 78 percent of liberals say they back Conway.

Paul gets the support of 87 percent of those who support the tea party movement, which favors smaller government and lower taxes. Among those with an unfavorable view of the tea party, 91 percent say they’ll vote for Conway.

College graduates, as well as those with less education, support Paul. Those who earn less than $50,000 a year say they support Paul by a margin of 58-37 percent; those earning more back Conway 52-44 percent.

That could indicate Conway has more support in urban areas such as Louisville and Lexington, where salaries tend to be higher than in the state’s rural areas.

Gun owners and those who oppose abortion rights prefer Paul by substantial margins, while Conway has similar leads among those who favor abortion rights and who don’t own firearms.

In terms of geography, Paul leads in Western Kentucky, north-central Kentucky, and in what SurveyUSA calls the Louisville area — a 14-county region that stretches from Jefferson County to Taylor County. In Eastern Kentucky, the candidates are in a statistical tie.

It’s generally assumed that Conway must run well in Louisville, his home base and the most liberal part of the state, if he hopes to win the Senate seat. In 2004 Democrat Daniel Mongiardo, who narrowly lost to Bunning, won Louisville by nearly 64,000 votes.

Jennifer Duffy, who follows U.S. Senate races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said it doesn’t appear to her that the race has changed since the last Bluegrass Poll.

“There hasn’t been that much engagement between the campaigns, especially where it matters most: on television,” she said.

That could be seen as a positive sign for Paul, who made several controversial statements in the days and weeks after the primary.

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“I wouldn’t have been surprised if the needle had moved a little against Paul because he has had sort of a difficult go of it,” said Duffy, who noted, however, that the poll didn’t measure the intensity of support for the candidates among respondents.

“I think this shows that it’s still a very competitive race, and we’re going to start seeing it play out soon,” she said.

It may, in fact, be beginning to play out already.

Some poll respondents who agreed to follow-up interviews said they’ve been following the race and were making decisions based on the issues that Conway and Paul are talking about.

Timothy Ratliff, 25, worked in the underground mines in Johnson County for a couple of years until he got injured. Now a janitor, Ratliff said he still worries about coal miners’ job security, and he likes Paul’s opposition to federal environmental legislation that he fears could hurt the coal industry.

“He’s fighting for the coal miners to keep them working. I stand for him,” said Ratliff, a Republican who believes that President Barack Obama “is putting a hurt on the coal mines.”

Conway has also said he opposes the legislation, which would limit greenhouse gas emissions. Because Conway has said he could support some sort of environmental legislation, as long as it didn’t adversely affect coal, Paul has tried to portray him as favoring the bill.

Charlene Mattingly, a biographical researcher at the University of Louisville, said she will vote for Conway — mainly because she’s “really kind of scared of Rand Paul.”

Mattingly said she doesn’t agree with Paul’s statements suggesting that businesses should be able to discriminate based on race (statements he later retracted) and on other issues he has addressed since the primary.

“Conway just seems to come across as someone who is intelligent and thinks things out,” she said. “I’m not sure Paul does think things out. … He’s more of a knee-jerk-type personality, and I think they are dangerous in politics.”