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09 06-11-eotm-european-minifigure-union

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September 6, 2011Topics: The debt crisis in the European Monetary Union as seen by a 9-year old, and US recession risksFor the last 2 years, if the Eye on the Market had a single dominant theme, it was that a common monetary policy doesnot by itself create a durable monetary union; that European asset markets were not adequately pricing in the risk thatthe European Monetary Union could fail, or require massive transfers to save it; and that austerity with no FXdevaluation is doomed to failure. During this time, our skepticism about the EMU and European asset markets has beenrewarded at every turn. For those interested, here’s the latest grisly news of the week…. • European manufacturing and new orders surveys are generating the worst readings since May 2009 (particularly sharp declines in France and Italy); German growth fell from 5.0% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2 • Both Italy and Spain struggled in August to attract interest in their public debt, and now both countries face much bigger auction schedules in the fall. Spanish and Italian banks also have large funding needs which are likely to be a problem if their respective sovereigns cannot borrow from the debt markets. Asian buying is critical; Spain relies on Asia for 5x the demand they get from the US. Current IMF and bilateral EU borrowing facilities are not big enough if Italy needs to access them. • EU bank shares have plummeted due to funding concerns, as the IMF and EU argue about capital adequacy of EU banks • Italian government bond yields rose by 0.5% yesterday as Italy struggles with ECB demands for a zero-deficit plan1 by 2013; the ECB does not appear to be in a rush to restore stability before the Italian plan is “fully confirmed and implemented” • The IMF-sponsored Greece adjustment program is in shambles2, for all the reasons we expected it would be • Imbalances at the root of the region’s problems have not improved fast enough (see chart). Without an FX devaluation to close the gap, the periphery is consigned to a self-reinforcing cycle of low growth and austerity. While many see the EMU as an integration project, it has resulted in the largest growth and employment disparities in decades (see charts on page 5).This saga has been going on now for 24 months, making it the Berlin Alexanderplatz of Sovereign Debt Crises. However, Ithink we’re moving closer to the end-game, which begins and ends in Germany. German political parties likely to run theBundestag after the next elections are in favor of socializing these problems through Eurobonds, if necessary. But the Germanpublic generally opposes Eurobonds (see chart), perhaps since the potential cost of a permanent fiscal transfer union rivals thecost of German unification and post-WWI Versailles reparations (see EoTM August 6, 2011). Somethings still rotten near Denmark No Federalization without Representation? Current account deficit, % of GDP Percent of Bundestag, and percent of German population 4% 80% German voters: Euro exchange rate fixed France, Germany, U.K. 70% 2% 60% German politicians: 0% Left Party 50% -2% 40% Greens -4% 30% Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain 20% -6% SPD 10% -8% 0% 1975 1980 1986 1991 1997 2002 2008 In favor of Eurobonds Opposed to Eurobonds Source: OECD, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, U.K. Office of National Statistics. Source: Der Spiegel, TNS Emnid Global Market Research, N24 Media GmbH.The end-game is mostly about who pays for the accumulated, unrealized losses of the last decade, and who finances thetransition to whatever comes next. Markets are nervous, since Europe has not figured this out yet. To examine the variousfactions, I consulted Peter Cembalest, who specializes in conceptualization of such phenomena. Peter (age 9) uses LegoMinifigures as a medium, and assisted me with the diorama on the next page. It identifies the 12 players in the EMU DebtCrisis most likely to affect policy from here; red lines indicate who each entity believes should be stuck with the cost. Theattribution of views is my own, based on an analysis of what people have said, what they have done, and how they have voted.1 Italy runs practically the tightest budget deficit in Europe; the burden of prior debt is the bigger problem. Italy was able to bring debt levelsdown in the 1990’s, but this resulted from four factors: higher growth resulting from an undervalued exchange rate from 1992 to 1997; EMUconvergence which brought down interest rates from 12% to 3%; popular support for austerity, with the promise of integration and all itwould bring; and financial engineering (off balance sheet swaps). None of these tailwinds exist today.2 July/August Greek retail sales fell at the fastest rate in three years, bank deposit flight continues, its privatization efforts are off to a veryslow start, and the government may miss its fiscal deficit target by 1% or so. What is happening in Greece is a textbook response toausterity without an FX adjustment and easy monetary policy, according to the IMF’s own handbook (“Macroeconomic Effects of FiscalConsolidation”, October 2010). The IMF’s reported disappointment with Greece, given this context, is ridiculous. 1

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September 6, 2011Topics: The debt crisis in the European Monetary Union as seen by a 9-year old, and US recession risksThe political impasse in Europe: who should pay for current and future sovereign/bank bailouts? 5 1 3 2 4 9 7 8 6 12 10 11 Key: Arrows denote where each entity would shift the burden of bailout costs[1] Spain, Italy and the rest of the Euro [2] The CDU, CSU and FDP are the 3 German [3] By requiring collateral for its share of EFSFPeriphery believe the ECB should buy bonds, parties which control the Bundestag and are exposure to Greece, Finland raised the ante onprevent spreads from rising and give them against doing more than what Germany has France and Germany, whose banks have much moretime to implement austerity plans. Italy is the already committed to. Minority factions within exposure to the Periphery. Finland wants the bailoutflash point, with sovereign debt equal to 25% all 3 are against proposed EFSF expansion in to reflect actual exposure, rather than ECB capitalof GDP rolling in the next year, plus 100 bn in size and scope. The CSU circulated a paper weights. The Dutch now want the same treatment.Italian bank debt. Italy has undergone calling for an ‘insolvency procedure” for Euro-austerity before (1990’s), but that was when zone sovereigns instead of an open-ended [6] The IMF has taken a mostly passive role, lendingthe promise of EMU integration was the transfer union. The 3 parties seek greater labor money and overseeing austerity plans in Greece thatcarrot. This promise has proven to be illusory; and pension reforms in the Periphery, and are are failing miserably. Ken Rogoff at Harvard refersItaly grew faster before joining the EMU. strongly opposed to premature introduction of to their role as “sycophantic”. Comments on bank Eurobonds. If more than 440 bn is needed, they shareholder dilution by new IMF head LaGarde may[4] The Social Democrats and Greens are would begrudgingly accept more ECB buying. suggest a change in attitude (hence the dotted line).opposition parties in the Bundestag, but if anearly election were held today, polls suggest [5] The Bundesbank is the ultimate protector of [9] France is relying on the ECB to handle what thethey would be in control. Both parties support German monetary and fiscal interests, and is EFSF cannot. While France supports greater fiscalexpanding the EFSF beyond 440 bn if needed, very concerned with steps already taken to deal federalization, if this were done via further EFSFand may accept fiscal federalization if with the crisis. Their strong preference would enlargement, it could risk France’s AAA rating.necessary to preserve the EMU. be for EMU countries looking for aid to first implement austerity and pension and labor [11] The EU Commission and Euro Group Finance[7] The European Central Bank is purchasing market reforms (i.e., German Reunification Ministers, chaired by Jose Manuel Barroso and Jean-Spanish and Italian bonds in the secondary steps). Bondholder losses (“creditor Claude Juncker, support ECB bond buying and fiscalmarket to bring yields down with the intention participation”) should take place before federalization in a variety of forms. They opposeof facilitating better primary auctions. This did shareholders are subsidized by taxpayers. Franco-German incrementalism, but may not havenot work in Ireland, Greece or Portugal. Spain enough power to change it.and Italy yields declined by 1% once the ECB [10] EU taxpayers in Core countries would bebegan buying, but have since drifted higher. affected by various efforts to federalize costs of [12] So far, EU bondholders and shareholders haveThe ECB does not like its current role as fiscal the EMU sovereign debt crisis, either through been subsidized by the ECB and EU taxpayers. Theagent, and believes that EU taxpayers should EFSF expansion, or introduction of Eurobonds. latest EU bank stress tests called for an additional Eurbear the cost of solving the crisis. Lots of arrows point in this general direction. 2.5 billion of capital. This is not a misprint.[8] Poland, after a long period of wanting to enter the EMU, is waiting for a clearer picture of who will bear the costs of the sovereign debt crisis.The Polish Finance Minster is calling for more ECB buying of sovereign debt, a much larger EFSF, and warned that Poland will not want to join theEMU until the Euro is earthquake-proof. "The fundamental problem of the Eurozone is not an economic but a political one," he explained. "Thechoice is: much deeper macroeconomic integration in the Eurozone or its collapse. There is no third way." 2

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September 6, 2011Topics: The debt crisis in the European Monetary Union as seen by a 9-year old, and US recession risksThere wasn’t room for every entity that impacts European decision-making. The German ConstitutionalCourt is another unique agent, and could disrupt the bailout process in a variety of ways. We also could have Icelandincluded Iceland, whose influence lay in its different and more successful adjustment. Iceland struggled withhigh inflation and unemployment after its 2009 devaluation, but now benefits from rapidly improvingeconomic and financial market prospects3. If today’s diorama analysis borders on the absurd, so doesmaintaining the fiction that accumulation of massive public and private sector claims in Europe cansomehow be engineered away. European banking sector liabilities are 3 to 4 times the size of EuropeanGDP, which dwarfs the roughly 1:1 ratio in the US. To be clear, there are few signs of systemic fundingstrains in the interbank market, and most European banks are well funded for the next couple of months. But if sovereign riskcontinues to rise, this would be the next flashpoint in the crisis. Bottom line: we remain underinvested in Europe in a big way.As for the United States, arguing that US growth will be 1.0%-1.5% and not negative might seem like debating howmany angels can dance on the head of a pin (in other words, a poor use of time, since both are below what is needed for adurable recovery). But for what it’s worth, that’s our view right now: 1% and not a recession. Housing and labor market dataare pretty bad, and consumer confidence surveys plummeted in August. However, confidence surveys have under-predictedactual consumer spending for the last couple of years, and as of July, spending was well above levels indicative of recessions. Consumption growth below trend but far from recession Recent gap between spending and confidence territory, Percent, YoY Index Percent change, YoY 8% 115 Real Personal 6% 6% 105 Consumption Expenditures 4% 4% 95 (RHS) 2% 2% 85 0% 75 0% Hurricane Katrina-2% 65 Consumer -2% 3 months annualized Confidence (LHS)-4% 55 -4% Jan-50 Nov-58 Aug-67 Jun-76 Mar-85 Dec-93 Oct-02 Jul-11 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Shaded bars denote recessions. Source: University of Michigan, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Manufacturing also held up through July, and while there were signs of weakness, the August ISM manufacturing survey is notpointing to recession. However, the best argument against a recession is unfortunately also an indictment for how weakthe recovery is. The chart below shows the combined level of durable goods spending (by consumers) and fixed investment(by businesses, in property and equipment). At 20% of GDP, it’s close to its lowest level in more than 50 years. Since a declinein this measure tends to cause recessions, our view is that there’s barely enough of this kind of spending to fall in the first place. Durable goods and fixed investment at multi-cycle lows S&P 500 price since April 2010 Percent of GDP Level 30% 1400 1350 28% 1300 26% Bernankes 1250 Jackson Hole 24% 1200 speech on QE2 1150 22% 1100 20% 1050 Sept. 6 open 18% 1000 1947 1955 1963 1971 1979 1987 1995 2003 2011 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Shaded bars denote recessions. Source: Bloomberg.3 In Iceland, inflation is back at 2%, its growth rates are projected at 3.5%-4.0%, unemployment of 9% is half of EU periphery levels, and itsrecent 5-year bond issue was 2 times oversubscribed. 3

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September 6, 2011Topics: The debt crisis in the European Monetary Union as seen by a 9-year old, and US recession risksEither way, whether growth is 1% or 0%, the Fed is likely to respond with additional quantitative easing (QE) of some kind atits September meeting. As we noted last time, there are reasons to question the long-term benefits of such actions:• Make long-term interest rates lower? They’re already low (2% on 10 year Treasuries)• Add liquidity through asset purchases? There’s plenty of liquidity in the system already• “Encourage” banks to lend more money by eliminating interest on excess reserves held at the Fed? Banks are struggling with insufficient loan demand, a glut of deposits, and surveys show a substantial relaxation of lending standards• Buy corporate bonds? Investment grade spreads are already 85% of their way back to 2007 levelsThe beneficial impact of QE2 on the US economy was not sufficient, which is partly why US equity markets eventually gaveback much of the speculative gains which took place in Q4 2010. We have little reason to think that the outcome will bedifferent next time. Equity markets are priced cheaply relative to expectations of future earnings, but without more evidencethat QE is having more of a positive impact on the US economy, we believe QE-driven equity market gains will be temporary.As a consequence of problems in Europe and the US, low equity valuations are widespread. As we showed a couple ofweeks ago, multiples applied to earnings and book value are pricing in a high likelihood of a recession (see chart). This isunderstandable, as countries like Italy are forced into “zero-deficit” plans by markets increasingly nervous about the highestlevels of government debt since Italian unification in 1861. Our sense is that US equity markets are pricing in around a 15%-20% decline in earnings, which is consistent with recessions before the tech collapse and credit crisis, which were much worse. The men who fell to earth Earnings declines during US recessions Price/earnings and price/book ratios vs. long-term averages Percent decline - peak to trough 16x 1953- 1957- 1960- 1974- 1981- 1990- 2008- Price to forward earnings 14x 1949 1954 1958 1961 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009 HK 10% 12x 0% Japan US -10% 10x Australia Sw itzerland Germany -20% Korea UK Maginot Line 8x China Long-term average -30% Spain Current Brazil -40% 6x 0.8 1.8 1.3 2.3 2.8 -50% Price to book value -60% Source: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. P/B long-term avgs since 1980 except for Korea, China, Brazil (1995). Fwd P/E long-term avgs since 1987 except for Brazil, China (1995). Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Capital.The investment opportunities that make the most sense to us in this environment:• Leveraged loans, after recent price declines• Opportunities in merger arbitrage, where deal spreads4 have widened from 8% to 16% in August• Asian currencies, given the Fed’s “zero-or-Nero” monetary policy5• Equity notes which allow for upside participation, but also provide protection down to spring-2009 levels. Some of our favorite global large-cap companies (domiciled in the US, Europe and Asia) now trade with dividend yields of close to 5%.• US bank preferred stock (both Trust Preferreds trading at or below Par, and those eligible for qualified dividend treatment). While the earnings of some issuing banks may be under pressure due to ongoing litigation risks, declining net interest margins and the lack of a recovery in home prices, we consider these risks more of an issue for common stock, rather than preferred stock. As one indication of magnitude, Morgan Stanley’s Large Cap Bank Analyst Team cut 2012 EPS estimates by 6% last month, which would not entail payment risks for preferred stock.• Inflation is an easier problem to deal with than deleveraging, deflation and austerity budgets. As a result, we are looking at opportunities in Asian equities and credit, which we expect to improve once the monetary tightening cycle is complete.Michael CembalestChief Investment Officer4 Deal spreads refer to the difference between the announced acquisition price of a given target company, and where it is currently trading.This difference primarily reflects the uncertainty around the deal closing, and the cost of capital. The numbers above were computed forAugust 1 and August 30, for all announced US transactions above $500 million.5 The Fed appears to believe that without zero interest rates, the US would face an environment of asset liquidation and Nero-like disarray. 4