… and I don’t mean Christmas or, where I live at least, 6 foot of snow… I mean MY RETURN TO THE BLOGOSPHERE.

Yes, I know you’re all excited, but cool your jets as I may only last a week if my picks are crap. It’s been a while since I last posted, around 8 months to be precise, and I have to say I’ve missed it. I’ve reloaded Betfair a few times since March though not with any significant amounts and I managed to grow my last deposit of £100 all the way up to £714 before my balance began it’s slow descent back to £0.00.

I’ve said it before in past posts that you can make money from betting – of that I have no doubt – but it really isn’t easy at all especially if you have next to no money with which to start from as it takes ages to get your account balance to a decent level where you can feel like you have a bit more room to breathe. Having a bit more cash at your disposal can be a bit of a double edged sword though as you are more inclined to have that ‘one more bet’ on something you should not touch with a pole, the thinking being that if you lose then it’s not much of a hit to your bank. That thinking is what will ultimately land you back down with a zero balance and you sitting with your head in your hands asking yourself how you could have fucked it up yet again.

It’s really easy to preach to others about staying focussed and maintaining discipline but in practice it’s the hardest part of what we do. Sure, there’ll be times when that bet on unquoted in some tinpot game in South America will net you a decent return, but in the long run if you’re a footy punter you really should be super selective when it comes down to picking matches to get involved in. The trouble is, is that unless you have a shitload of money in your account you tend to be less selective and even as I sit here typing away I know I’m going to be betting on games between teams whose players shouldn’t get paid in penny washers let alone money.

Anyway, the account will be funded in a couple of days all being well and a new chapter will begin for better or worse and I look forward to any comments, good or not so good. Until then, good luck with your bets.

Fulham’s 4th goal – what a cracker ! An absolutely world class chip from Clint Dempsey stunned the Juve defence and as I type will put Fulham through to the quarter finals of the Europa League. That strike also helped to double my account balance as I had gone all in on unquoted at just over evens. Next match will be the Wolfsburg v Rubin Kazan affair. Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> The Wolfsburg game turned out to be pretty much a non event as the money I made from laying the 0-0 half time score was given back after I pressed on and layed the 0-1 half time score. There were chances, mainly for Rubin, but they amounted to nothing. I was going to stick to that game but instead chose to lay the 2-2 full time score in the Sporting Lisbon match and that proved to be my undoing as a mainly defensive effort by Atletico Madrid saw to it that Sporting didn’t breach their goals though a clear penalty shout for Sporting was denied. The game ended 2-2 so my account is effectively wiped out unless I find some long odds on shot to lay but you never know. Spreadsheet below.

Yes folks, not content with betting on shite in Poland yesterday I simply had to trump that by betting on complete and utter dross in a country that boasts Ciorba de Burta (Tripe Soup) as a National dish. I’m talking about Romania and the match between Gaz Metan Medias and CFR Cluj.

I watched the first half and the only scoring chance I saw was a free kick to Cluj which hit the post but the ball bounced back out nicely for the 8ft tall waste of skin that is Lacine Traore who promptly put it into row Z instead of tapping it into what was an open net as the keeper was still lying on the ground after diving to save the free kick. That was where I bailed out but I checked in with XScores later on to see how the match finished up and discoved that they managed the full 90 minutes without either side scoring.

Following that let down I went out and about, mainly to finish off a pc tech support job that came my way yesterday. Turns out the printer was buggered so I had to go and get a new one this morning and install it and make sure everything was running smoothly etc etc (Hi Betty, if you’re reading this :-)). When I finally got back in the Barca match was underway and true to form they scored a goal just as the countdown timer had begun so my intended lay of 1-0 half time didn’t happen. I was tempted to back the unquoted but I thought better of it (now wishing I hadn’t) and I’m sitting here typing this and considering which exotic port of call will find me next. I’m inclined to think it’ll be the Toluca v Columbus Crew match which given the slew of goals in the first leg at Columbus I’m hoping for more of the same tonight. That’s the news for now so I’ll be back later with an update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> The Toluca match almost produced a decent result for me. I backed any unquoted from the off and early in the first half Toluca had a shot that hit the underside of the bar and every replay I watched it looked like the ball had crossed the line but the goal wasn’t given. Toluca ended up winning 3-2 but that goal, had it stood, would have made all the difference to my account. I layed back my stake plus a bit extra after Toluca got their third goal so I was green whatever the result though I stood to win more had it gone unquoted but that’s life I suppose.

I followed that bet up with a lay of 0-0 half time in the Cruz Azul match and after having watched the latter stages of the first half I have to say that Cruz should be taking this opposing shower to the cleaners but I get this feeling they just don’t want to. A really decent chance that should have been put away fell to Cruz inside the last few minutes of the half and the camera zoomed in on the idiot that missed and the look on his face was one of smug satisfaction at having fluffed a golden chance – almost like he wasn’t meant to score. I hope I’m wrong and this match finishes with a few goals but I wouldn’t be surprised if it finishes 0-0 but regardless I’m taking no further part in it.

As usual I’m finding it difficult to move off the mark with my account growing a bit then shrinking back again…with the piddling amount of money in there I’ll be having a meltdown soon and committing it all and losing it and to be honest it’ll be a blessing as I’m tired of this bullshit. Anyway, tomorrow is another day and you never know, I might just get past the tenner mark. Spreadsheet below (though the final score in the Cruz match isn’t known yet but I’ll update the spready when I have that info).

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I’ve changed my mind about the Cruz match…I’m watching the second half now and a different Cruz have come out so I’ve backed the unquoted again (though the price I got was after the first goal was scored). If they score again fairly soon there’s a greening opportunity. Back in a bit .

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well fuck my luck ! It’s 2-0 with about 15 left to play and the price to lay unquoted was creeping ever closer to the price I got to back it so I layed off my stake plus a tiny bit extra and a nanosecond after I got matched Cruz scored a third goal. Had I waited an extra minute I could have layed off for at least a 15 – 20 quid profit whatever the result. In the end I ended up losing on the game and as is typical they squandered several chances in the final few minutes to leave me more infuriated. Spreadsheet below.

I almost forgot to post today as it’s been pretty much a non day for decent football but as I’ve placed a bet (and lost) I have to stick it up here so you can see what a tool I have been for getting involved in crud that is best left for the Asian match fixing elite.

I was researching footy stats and the like earlier in the day and I found myself drawn into an article about match fixing and started looking a bit more into it. I was surprised to learn that no competition appears to be safe, whether it be a second division match in Uzbekistan or a Champions League qualifier, the fixers are buying just about everybody. There is supposedly a worldwide effort to crack down on this but after watching some of the games I’ve recently watched I would say the good guys aren’t winning.

So with that said, and bearing in mind that some of the worst offenders are from Eastern bloc countries, I decided to make my first port of call the Polish Cup match between Ruch Chorzow (who ?) and Legia Warsaw. I’m still laughing to myself thinking of what a completely stupid move that was but hey ho, it’s only money. As I type I can tell you that the first half finished goalless (surprise surprise) but I really don’t know how the match ended and to be honest I really couldn’t care less.

The only stuff on offer tonight is Copa shite and I’m going to go out of the frying pan (Poland) and into the fire (Peru) by having a go in the match between Juan Aurich and Alianza Lima. Fucking typical, as I’m typing all I hear is “GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALL”…it appears Lima have scored. I’m off before the goals dry up…I have no money in my account to speak of but laying the 0-1 half time score will be my bet. Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well thankfully things went my way in Peru with the first half ending up 2-1 to Juan Aurich. I can’t be bothered waiting until the match is over to fill out my spreadsheet so I’m posting it up with only the first half goals showing. A tremendous effort from me today with a bank increase of almost ten shillings in old money, spreadsheet below.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> The bloody dogs woke me up at stupid o’clock to go out so I took the liberty of pasting in the updated spreadsheet showing the final score in the Juan Aurich match,,,

… to pick out matches that have yet to have a goal scored but as soon as I locate the feed to watch it the ball finds it’s way into the net within seconds. I did it again not five minutes ago where I decided to look into the merits of laying the 0-0 half time score in the Grosseto match. I’d only just found the feed then switched back to the Betfair screen to take a look at some of the prices and BOOM, the first of not one but two goals get fired in, both within the last five minutes of the half. This match is far from dead and buried so with my ultra limited resources I am going in with a back of over 2.5 goals. I will return later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> My uncanny ability extends even further in that when I decide to press ahead with a match that I had previously specced for goals (that I missed out on) it turns to shite with no more goals forthcoming as the match between Grosseto and Mantova proved spectacularly. What a load of bollocks that second half was resulting in no more goals and more money lost.

Caution is now thrown to the wind and the rest of my account has been committed into a lay of the 0-0 half time score in the Notts County v Bournemouth affair. If it fails then so be it. Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well that almost didn’t come off after County were awarded a penalty which Lee Hughes, the taker, managed to get saved but fortunately the ball bounced right back out in front of him for a second go which he slammed into the roof of the net. I bailed out of the match after that but had considered staying the distance for a bet of over 1.5 until I saw the mickey mouse price on offer. The match ended in a 2-2 draw which I have to say didn’t look like being on the cards as County showed a lot of spirit in the first half and I thought they would end up winning the game.

Only Brazilian crap left which cannot be trusted so that’s my day at an end. It’s going to be an extremely long and painful process getting this account back in good standing but it’s not out of the realms of possibility. I’ve had a few thoughts about another tack I might take and I’m trying to get some stats though they are not jumping out at me so I might have to do it the hard way and crunch my own numbers but that’s very labour intensive. Around one third of all matches end up being 0-0 at full time (so I’m led to believe and some ‘labour intensive’ study of my own seems to bear that out). I’d like to know what percentage of matches that are 0-0 at half time DON’T end up 0-0 at full time. Post your answers below in the comments section if you think you know as I’d really appreciate it.

…Fall Back, so the saying here in Canada goes as a reminder as to which way to turn the clocks (forward or back) and in what season. The clocks duly went forward here and I set my alarm for 6am so I could be up and ready for the first game on my programme, Rubin Kazan v Lokomotiv Moscow. I got myself installed with a cup of tea, layed the 0-0 half time score, then started to look for a feed but found nothing. Five more minutes passed and still the damn game hadn’t gone in play so I checked the off time again in case I’d got it wrong – 11am UK time was the stated time as I correctly thought it was. Still no action by 6.15 my time so I went back to bed and set the clock for 7 am in readiness for the games starting at midday UK time. By the time I got back to the pc it was about ten minutes past seven (my time) and I noticed the Rubin game was still in play which I found odd as even with a relatively late kick off the first half should be over. Then I noticed the odds for 0-0 at half time were only 2.5 to lay, which meant that the game was barely 15 minutes old given the odds I had layed the score at. Then it hit me…the stinking clocks don’t go forward in the UK for another two weeks so I’ve effectively robbed myself of an extra hour in bed. Oh the injustice !

I watched the Rubin game, English commentator and all, and it was obvious that nothing was going to come of the first half as a scrappy playing surface and tight marking made for a dour game with only one real chance for the vistors being totally fluffed right at the end of the half. I wasn’t sure where to go for my next game – the Rangers match didn’t really attract me as much as the Kaiserslautern game did but with a good half hour between the two kick offs I found a feed and watched a bit of the Scottish game. It turned out to be quite a pacey affair which I like and Rangers were at the time really going for it so I chose to stick with the game and layed the 0-0 half time. Anyone who watched the first half will tell you that Dundee Utd weren’t without chances and as a result of a Rangers blunder they opened the scoring with plenty of time left on the clock for more goals. I layed the 0-1 and set about making some breakfast. The sound of the commentator going bananas made it’s way to the kitchen and I knew a second goal had been scored. By the time I got back to the pc the scoreline read 2-1 with Rangers having converted twice from the penalty spot. The next game will be the Man Utd game which has just gone in play so I’m off to watch it. Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Looks like I’m in trouble again after picking three 0-0 half time draws on the trot, the United match being ne of them . I picked a bit back after Ajax laid waste to PSV but that game was sandwiched between shite and more shite. The Sunderland v City game looked pretty lively but following the first goal City were just dire and Sunderland, while they looked up for it, never really troubled the City goal for the rest of the first half so my lay of the 1-0 went down the pan. Following swiftly round the u bend was the Copenhagen v Brondby game. I really couldn’t get a decent feed so I settled for watching Betfair and waiting for the Suspended that never came (at least in the first half). An attempt to get out of jail in the Barca match looked promising (I started by backing Valencia at big odds hoping for an early upset) as Valencia put up a good display in the first half but it wasn’t long into the second half before Leo the Lion danced his way through the box and slotted home Barca’s first. I lost interest at that point but layed Barca just in case Valencia had enough in the tank to equalise but then they got a man sent off and the writing was on the wall. My account is fucked again and only divine intervention can save it now. I really can’t be arsed with all this pressure I’m putting on myself so for today at least, I’m done. Spreadsheet below.

Saturday just wouldn’t be the same without a bit of football and while I enjoy watching a match or two it holds that little bit more interest when money is riding on the outcome. I reloaded my Betfair account, albeit with a very small deposit, so here we go again. The objective remains the same as before and that is to attempt to increase my bank by at least 10% per betting day. I’m not going to be very adventurous, mainly sticking to lays of the 0-0 half time scores, but where an opportunity looks like it might yield a profit I will bet as necessary. One such opportunity has already come and gone and thankfully produced my first winning bet of this newly funded account and that was a lay of the 1-1 scoreline in the Hull City v Arsenal game. I actually placed the bet with just over 10 minutes remaining and shortly after that Hull signalled their intentions by pulling off a striker and shoring up their defence. From there on it was all Arsenal who seemed to get extra motivation after 6 minutes of extra time was announced, scoring in, I think, the 92nd minute and the lay came good.

I followed up with a lay of 0-0 in the Sporting Braga v Rio Ave match and Braga found the net 16 minutes in after a shot deflected off the ankle of a Rio defender to push the ball past the outstretched arms of the diving Braga ‘keeper.

I don’t want to get too carried away with my new found wealth but I’m not finished for the day yet. My next port of call was to have been the Nijmegan v Roda match but as soon as I located the feed I was treated to the sight of Roda scoring so I’m not sure whether or not to press on with that game. Anyway, that’s the news so far, I’ll be back later with an update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> So a successful first day back following the reload. I took a small loss on the NEC Nijmegan game as no further goals were scored in the first half though it was a fairly lively game. Thereafter my lays of 0-0 half time scores at Sevilla and Academica both came off to see a 43% hike in the account balance and that is where my day ends.

It’s days like today that give me hope. Five simple bets (and one was a loser) is all it took to get a huge bank increase in percentage terms. I know what kind of bets I’m comfortable with and what kind of bets I should steer away from yet I still continue to make mistakes. With football the only bets that make sense are those that don’t depend solely on one team or the other – I call them open ended bets – so I’m talking things like Overs, laying a current score (given time on the clock), anything that produces your desired result regardless of which team scores the next goal.

I really am sick and tired of saying one thing and doing another so from today on I’m going to stick rigidly to a simple plan and move this thing forward. Spreadsheet below.

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