The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

1. ECB President Draghi Speaks

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why traders care and what to expect: The President of the ECB is expected to make an introductory statement at the Quarterly Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. The Statement will also be available on ECB’s website after delivery. Most likely, Mario Draghi will highlight the instability of the current economic situation and talk about ECB’s latest monetary policy actions.

Directional bias: UP if the President’s attitude is hawkish

DOWN if the President’s attitude is dovish

How I would trade this event: I will trade after the event is over if a clear direction is in place.

2. United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (year over year)

07/15/2014 – Tuesday at 08:30 am GMT

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: 1.6% from the previous 1.5%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

Why traders care and what to expect: Although inflation is not such a high reason of concern for the Bank of England as it is for the ECB (mainly because the current value is close to BOE’s target), it is still the best way of measuring the Pound’s buying strength and thus remains a potential market mover.

Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 1.6%

DOWN if the actual value is lower than 1.6%

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on FTSE if the value will be higher than expected.

3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment

07/15/2014 – Tuesday at 09:00 am GMT

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: 28.9 from the previous 29.8

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory DailyFX

Why traders care and what to expect: A positive number for this survey indicates optimism among institutional investors and analysts, but although German ZEW stays in positive territory we cannot help but notice the constant decline that has begun in January this year. Constantly lower numbers somewhat negate the optimism generated by the fact that its value remains above zero, hence the directional bias which follows:

Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 28.9

DOWN if the actual number is lower than 28.9

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on DAX if the actual value will be lower than expected.

4. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks

07/15/2014 – Tuesday at 9:00 am GMT

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why traders care and what to expect: As always, speeches of heads of central banks can have a high impact, mostly because they often contain riddles and market participants misinterpret (or cannot decipher) their meaning, resulting in contradictory views and choppy price action.

Directional bias: UP if the President’s attitude is hawkish

DOWN if the President’s attitude is dovish

How I would trade this event: I will trade after the event is overif a clear direction is in place.

5. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why traders care and what to expect: The first testimony will be focused towards the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and will be given before the Senate Banking Committee while the next day, Janet Yellen will testify on the same topic but in front of the House Financial Services Committee. Like I said above, the market can misinterpret the meaning of Yellen’s words and that’s usually when reversals occur.

Directional bias: UP if Yellen has a hawkish attitude

DOWN if Yellen has a dovish attitude

How I would trade this event: Direction will be highly influenced by her attitude and answers; we might witness some sharp reversals so I won’t be trading at the time.

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