PICKING THE PICK 5/6 - Each day you will find my picks for the 50 cent PICK 5 and PLACE PICK 6. Choose a level of involvement to fit your Pick 5 budget. Of course, the more involved you get, the greater chance you have of hitting a PICK 5.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Even though I will be at Belmont Park tomorrow, I will still be playing the Monmouth Place Pick 6. Here is a preliminary ticket for day 58. I will be back from Belmont to update the play after Monmouth scratch time. 2,5,8 with 3 with 6,7 with 2,7,8 with 8,9 with 2,4,(7),(8).

UPDATE - 12:45 pm - Races are on the turf at Monmouth and the track is muddy. No scratches of note in the Place Pick 6 sequence. Final ticket will be our usual $36 play: 2,8,10 with 3 with 6,7 with 2,8,10 with 8,9 with 2,4.

Notes:--Rapid Redux was scratched from his race Friday night at Mountaineer. The possibility of a muddy caused them to stay home. Next target for win number 18 is on October 14, at Charles Town.

--Monmouth has announced racing on Fridays, Oct. 14, 21, and 28. Those are the make-up dates for Hurricane Irene and the extreme heat of July. There will be racing on Columbus Day which is Monday, Oct. 10, and Friday, November 4, for Breeders Cup. That means we are back to 3 days of racing a week at Monmouth from next weekend through November 6.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Saturday I will be heading off to Belmont Park for Super Saturday where there will be five G1 stakes and the G2 Kelso. I have not been to Belmont Park in many years, so many that I really can't remember how long it has been. The races will be seen live on ESPN Classic or you can watch on drf.com.

Here are my picks and preview of this Super Saturday.

Race 5 is the G1 Flower Bowl Invitational. There were 14 nominations and 8 fillies and mares are running. #8 Stacelita will be the favorite and my top pick. She is just better than the rest of these. Her races have been better and her BSF's have been better. #1 Deluxe ran some very good races in France and has made one start for Bill Mott and it was a nice effort in a restricted stake at Saratoga. Mott could have this one improving. #3 Emerald Beach has won 4 in a row including the G3 Glens Falls. She loves the soft going and Jonathan Sheppard seems to have figured out this 5 year-old mare.

Race 6 is the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational where 14 were nominated and 6 three year-olds and older are contesting the $500,000 race. This is kind of a repeat of the Flower Bowl. #1 Cape Blanco is way way better then the other five. His two starts with Lasix in the US were super as he beat Gio Ponti twice in G1 races. #5 Winchester ran quite well in the 1.5 mile G1 Sword Dancer.

Race 7 is the G1 Vosburgh Invitational at six furlongs. Nine of the 14 nominees are running for the $350,000 purse. I am looking for an upset here. #6 Big Drama (SCRATCHED) is the 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint champion and the best sprinter in 2010 and January of 2011. Then he disappeared until 4Sep11 whe he ran in an easy stake at Calder. He won with a BSF of 88. I don't think he will be in top form to win this speedy speedy race. The race sets up perfectly for #8 Trappe Shot who will close and get the win. I hope he is a decent price, 5-2 or better. #4 Euroears may love the dirt and show even more speed than he already has displayed. No trainer is better than Bob Baffert at getting ready for the big ones.

Race 8 is probably the race I am looking forward to the most. The G2 Kelso Handicap has #3 Uncle Mo running in his second race back from his liver ailment. I still believe that Uncle Mo will become a superstar. He is my pick. I will use #2 Jackson Bend and #1 Jersey Town as back-ups.

Race 9 is the G1 Beldame and features #5 Havre de Grace who many feel is the best horse in the country. She beat the boys in the G1 Woodward during the last week at Saratoga. She should toy with these girls. If something goes wrong then #2 Royal Delta will pick up the pieces.

Race 10 is the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, a race that has a great list of past winners. #4 Stay Thirsty was once thought of as the second stringer in the Repole/Pletcher barn behind Uncle Mo. This summer his two wins at Saratoga have made him a star. He is the only horse in this race to win a G1 and to have more than 1 win for this year. The mile and a quarter distance suits him perfectly. My upset picks are #5 Drosselmeyer , the 2010 Belmont Stakes winner, who may be ready for a top effort thanks to Bill Mott. Note that if the upsets pile up that Mott could have a really big day! The #1/1A entry has to be used as back-ups.

So in the late pick 4 it is: 4,8 with 1,2,3 with 2,5 with 1,4,5. The top choices are 8/3/5/4 and that is a pretty chalky ticket that will need to be played more than the other tickets. A likely ticket: 4,8 with 2,3 with 2,5 with 1,4.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Rapid Redux is entered in the eighth race at Mountaineer Racetrack (MNR) on Friday night. RR will be going for his 18th consecutive victory. Once again he will be running in a Alw5000s, a starter allowance for horses that have run for a claiming tag of $5,000 in 2010-2011. The runners are NOT eligible to be claimed. Post time for the race will be 9:55pm ET.

I will be on TWITTER @AndyScoggin beginning at 7:30pm on Friday night. Once again I will be tweeting all kinds of fun facts about Rapid Redux and the other horses in his race. Please join me for what should be a great way to rest your weary bones after a long work week.

Also, I will be taking on HorseRacingNation.com managing editor, Brian Zipse, in this week's Point/Counterpoint debate. The topic is: "Are the three year-olds or the older horses having a better year?" I am presenting the three year-old point of view. I am really proud of my column. Brian's racing knowledge is amazing and his writing is just as good. This is scheduled to be posted on Wednesday. Join in the debate. Here is the link for the Point/Counterpoint.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Day 57 of the Monmouth Summer, now Fall meeting. Pretty much a strikeout yesterday with the sloppy then muddy track playing out to be very speed favoring. Today there is no turf racing again. We are probably getting close to the time that the turf course will close completely. Today's ticket works to be $32, not our usual configuration. I will call it a Mike Curci ticket because the Monmouth TV guy ALWAYS makes his PP6 a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2. Here is hoping we hit today because otherwise we will be back in the red for the meeting: 3,8 with 1,5 with 1,6 with 6,13 with 2,4 with 4,7.

UPDATE - 8:31pm - Yes, we hit the PP6 again. Our $32 ticket produced a $130.35 PP6 payout. We only had it one time, but we got a nice payout because our horses came in the top 2 with some long shots.

race 4: our 5/2 finished second to a 13-1 horserace 5: our 5-1 won with a 6-1race 6: 0ur 9/2 placed behind a 4-1race 7: 0ur 2-1 was second to a 6-1race 8: our 2-1 wins with a 2-1race 9: 0ur 3-1 placed behind a 9-1

Friday, September 23, 2011

I had a quick afternoon at the races today watching from Favorites in Woodbridge. Races six through nine at Belmont were run on a very sloppy main track or soft boggy turf course. It was all very rushed and I am only writing because I did quite well due to NYRA's expe rt in the paddock, Maggie Wolfendale. She is flat out amazing. Maggie only commented on three of those races but gave out two $11.00 winners. I bet both to win and then caught a trifecta because of her advice. If you are playing the NYRA tracks you must listen to what she has to say! Here is a link to an article that a Tweep of mine @loomsboldy wrote about Maggie. Pete is awesome, so enjoy.http://unbearablebetting.com/2011/08/08/monday-my-interview-with-maggie-wolfendale/

At Monmouth Saturday's races are already off the turf, so now begins the task of trying to guess who will stay in those races.

Saturday, 9:30am - Here are some preliminary thoughts about today's Place Pick 6. Because of the rain, no turf racing, and the probability of many scratches, I am going to start out with a very broad ticket that will be narrowed down before the fourth race goes off. An asterisk * will mark preferred choices.

9 with 1,2,6,7* with 6*,9*,11 with 4,9*,10 with 11,13,14 with 2,4

Be back later with updates to the ticket.

Update - 1:55pm - After scratch $36 ticket:9 with 1,6,7 with 9,11,12 with 9,10 with 11,14 with 2,4

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

I have spent a lot of time at Philadelphia Park over the years, especially on the backstretch. My assignment to write about the PA Derby got me thinking about those days. Read it at horseracingnation.com.

On HRN.com you will also find some a great debate about Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert. The best thing about HorseRacingNation.com is that you are always invited to join in the discussions! See you there.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Yesterday was the biggest Place Pick 6 payoff of the year. It was also the eighth time that we hit the PP6. Showing a profit for the whole Monmouth meeting would be an accomplishment of merit. Here is the spreadsheet for the entire summer.We have had a couple of tough periods, but lately we have been hitting the PP6 on a regular basis. Today it will be an $18 play: 5,7,9 with 3,7 with 5,6,9 with 4 with 1 with 6,8.

Remember to follow @AndyScoggin on Twitter and Racing at the Jersey Shore at HorseRacingNation.com. This week I will writing a piece about the $1,000,000 grade II Pennsylvania Derby which will be run this Saturday, September 24, at Parx racetrack.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

UPDATE - 5:10pm - With a great result of hitting an exacta in the last leg of the Place Pick 6, we have two winning tickets of $163.25 to collect a total of $326.50. That is the largest amount that we have collected in the PP6 this summer. That profit of $290.50 puts us in the black for the meeting!Today is the NJ Thoroughbred Festival at Monmouth Park. All races are restricted to NJ-breds, including three stakes races. There is a back pack giveaway, also.

Here is the preliminary Place Pick 6 ticket and then I will be back later with any updates and to talk about Rapid Redux's 17th consecutive win last night.

Final Place Pick 6 Ticket: 11 with 3,5,6 with 1,6 with 3,6 with 2,9 with 5,6,8,10(scr). This is our standard $36 play.

I just love what Rapid Redux is doing. He dominated last night's race for win number 17. I am rooting for him to break the record of 19. If you missed the race and my pre-race tweets. Let me do a recap of the tweets and add in some photos.

•Rapid Redux was claimed last October for $6,500 by his owner Robert Cole Jr.•Tonight's Alw 5000s at CT for Rapid Redux has a purse of $20,000. Thanks to the Hollywood Casino and Slots.•Rapid Redux is eligible for the $5000 starter alllowance races until Jan.1, 2012.•During the streak Rapid Redux has run at 7 different tracks and has been ridden by 7 different jockeys.•Rapid Redux lifetime is 36: 22-1-1 for $292,144.•Rapid Redux is by Pleasantly Perfect (Pleasant Colony) out of a Storm Cat mare, Thiscatsforcaryl. Foaled on Feb. 24, 2006.•JD Acosta is up on Rapid Redux again tonight. For the year Acosta 644: 125-98-88 for .19 winning rate.•In his last 10 races Rapid Redux has only one call where he wasn't on the lead and that was a second just out of the gate.•Rapid Redux's dam has had ELEVEN other foals! 6 of them are winners.•Rapid Redux's trainer David Wells has 218 starters and 58 wins for 27%•Rapid Redux is 2 for 2 at CT. He had his highest career BSF of 94 at CT.•Post time for race 8 is 10:25 ET.•I love this: Rapid Redux's trainer says he is best going THREE turns for the 1 and 1/16 distance.•Rapid Redux is currently 1-9!•Rapid Redux in the post parade.•On the lead Rapid Redux!•Up by a length!•Wins by 4!•Rapid Redux winning number 17!•Rapid Redux earnings now over $300,000.

Also, Pinelands Pete is entered to run at Delaware Park on Wednesday, September 15, in a five furlong turf sprint. Pete ran very well in his only turf start early in the spring at Atlantic City race track. Let's with our friend Petey good luck. One of my first blogs for HorseRacingNation.com was about Pete and his trainer. Here is that link:My Pinelands Pete blog on HorseRacingNation.com

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Yesterday was one of those days. It was one of those days when weird stuff happens to you when you're betting the horses.

In the Pick 5 we had three winners and two second places. One of the missed races had a $94 winner that was from a trainer who was 0 for the meet and 0 forever with layoff horses. I could NEVER pick that horse. The other place finisher lost at the wire.

Also, during the sequence I really like #1 Quepos and had the horse in a lot of exacta bets. At the start of that race the #2 veered sharply into Quepos knocking Chuckie Lopez out of the saddle!

Finally I was alive to four horses in the final leg of Belmont's Late Pick 4. Of course, what happened? At the wire a 10-1 shot nosed out one of my picks and my horses finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

I'm not telling bad beat stories. It was just one of those days!

Today, I have a Place Pick 6 play and I may be back later with a Pick 5. In the PP6, let's go with the standard $36 ticket: 3,10 with 1,2,5 with 3, with 7,10 with 5,6 with 3,4,11.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Remember there is a $5,092 Place Pick 6 carryover. Last time over $25,000 was bet into the Place Pick 6 carryover pool of $8,000 and produced a pay out of $86.25. Once again I am hoping to get my money back from this Saturday's carryover pool.

The featured race is The Mongo Queen which is a six furlong stake for fillies and mares. Mongo Queen won the 1978 grade one Sorority and the Colleen for two year-olds at Monmouth Park. For her career the West Virginia-bred won $277,837 with 8-13-6 results in 40 starts.

FINAL UPDATE - Saturday 1:35pm - Final Place Pick 6 Ticket for $36: 1,8 with 2,3,5 with 3,9 with 6 with 1,8 with 2,4,5.

In the Pick 5 here is the $81 ticket.Update-9:30am -Races are OFF the turf, that means race 6 in our sequences. I am going to assume that top choices 3,5,6 will scratch. There will be one Top Choices only ticket for the Pick costing $54.In the carryover Place Pick 6 here are two options. The standard $36 ticket: 3,4,8 with 2,5 with 13,14 with 6 with 1,8 with 2,4,5 or a larger $81 ticket: 3,4,8 with 2,3,5 with 13,14 with 6 with 1,6,8 with 2,4,5.

Look to see if there are any other scratches. I will not be able to post any other changes until around 2pm. GOOD LUCK!

SATURDAY ANALYSIS: posted Friday evening - Assumes races will be ON the turf.

Race 4 - Is #1 Sandy Key Gal going to finally run an untroubled race. Recent effort in speedy turf race was better than it appears. #3 Brown Eyed Nance comes out of the same race as #1. Trainer is 25% on turf to dirt. Was not bet at all in the first start. Good first start at 6.20-1 behind a repeat winner for #4 Last Minute Rose. #8 Sweet Moonbeam did not like the turf last race and had a difficult trip the race before that. Wire to wire?

Race 5 - #2 Jax Maxx almost always runs a good race. Last race was against a very tough bunch of J-breds. #3 Wing Glider is another competitor that finished second in a N3L beating a horse that came back to win. #5 Unleash the Humor has been running the best BSFs and is always in the thick of it. Claimed his last two races.

Race 6 - is filled with horses who have run well on the turf but don't seem to want to win: #5 Concorde County has three seconds in six starts, #6 Raging Rozea three seconds in 7 tries, #8 Scappare finished third three times in 8 races, #11 Key to the Empire 6 money finishes, and #14 Doodleman 2 seconds and 2 fourths in 6 tries. S0 that leads us to #3 Manresa Road won ran a close third in a very fast 7F turf race at Bel in July. Irish bred owned by the Tabor gang was no doubt sent to the US to run on lasix. Figures to be a big favorite, but a likely winner. Out of the above group #6 will be used in the Place Pick 6 to be second again!

Race 7 - A NW1 allowance filled with front runners and a few reluctant winners. #6 Champagne Run is trained by Steve Asmussen and gets Elvis Trujillo. Horse has the best BSF and the most class coming off a good 2nd place going 7F at SAR. She had the best maiden win against a comeback winner. Narrowly lost to Cascadilla Falls in her first start. C. Falls had a great SAR meet. Want to see the #6 stalk the speed and go by the tiring horses.

Race 8 - #8 Unwritten was claimed three races ago and came back to win a non J-bred beaten claimer and then ran a good 4th in a tough open conditional NW2 claimer. Now drops back into a J-bred race. Last year he dominated the state bred stakes at MTH. #1 Quepos will come charging as always. Last race was a mile which he doesn't prefer and now cuts back to 6F. He hasn't won in two years. Is today the day? #6 Cause I Can has been away since March. Three starts this year were against much better and two were on turf which he does not like. He ran well against J-breds last summer. A threat if ready.

Race 9 - #2 Golden Mystery moved to the barn of JC Guerrero from Marty Wolfson. I am not a big fan of Wolfson, although many are huge supporters. Guerrero's first time and layoff stats are superlative. #4 Hour Glass was very competitive in graded sprints last year. Her best should win here. Trujillo for Pletcher is 3 out of 4 with a crazy ROI of $6.20! #5 D'cats Meow is trained by the super hot conditioner Jane Cibelli. Her horses have been stringing together three, four wins off of claims. #5 is another one of them.

Race 10 - #1 Mo's Mini Skirt finished second going a mile 70 and the third place finisher came back to win. Puts blinkers on. #3 Nen's Chocolate gets a favorable jockey change from a third place finish. Trainer Pierce has been doing well lately and could improve to win this. #8 Miss Bar A is chosen by Mangalee off of a front running second place over the #3. Wire to wire here?

Check back on Saturday morning for the Place Pick 6 and Pick 5 tickets!

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

While we wait for the weekend and racing to resume at Monmouth, and remember that after Labor Day that only happens on Saturday and Sunday, let's take a look at the latest filly phenom, Havre de Grace. Last weekend she beat the boys in Saratoga's Woodward Stakes. Does she have a chance to be Horse of the Year? Larry Jones has trained many great horses. Where does Havre de Grace rank amongst them?My latest article for HorseRacingNation.com looks at these questions. Take a look.

Monday, September 5, 2011

The five year-old gelding Rapid Redux won his 16th straight race yesterday. He won in wire to wire fashion, pulling away with a quarter mile to go, coasting home for an easy 7 length victory in a $5,000 starter allowance at Timonium. Sixteen wins puts Rapid Redux in elite company with Citation and Cigar. Ahead are Zenyatta and Pepper's Pride who both won 19 consecutive races.

Read Brian Zipse's article about Rapid Redux at HorseRacingNation.com. Watch the video of win number 16.

In the fourth race a Monmouth today, two year-old Forward March makes his first in a 6 furlong MSW. Purchased for $2,050,000 in the Keeneland Septmeber yearling sale of 2010, the colt is trained by Shug McGaughey. He had one workout in Saratoga in May and then shifted to Belmont for the rest of his training and now starts at Monmouth. Curious, I don't expect, much from the horse.

Let's try the two ticket approach to the Place Pick 6 again today. AndyScoggin is getting close the profit line for the meeting for the Place Pick 6.

Ticket 1: 1 with 3,5 with 7,10 with 4,10 with 2,8,9 with 1,2,10. = $36
Ticket 2: 1,2,9 with 3 with 6,7 with 4,10 with 2,7,9 with 1,10. = $36

Like yesterday check the scratches because the tickets could change.

UPDATED TICKETS with scratches. UPDATE II with another scratch.
Ticket 1: 2,10 with 3,5 with 7,10 with 10 with 1,8,9 with 1,2,10. = $36
Ticket 2: 2,5 with 3 with 5,6,7 with 4,10 with 7,8,9 with 1,10. = $36

Sunday, September 4, 2011

UPDATE - 2:50pm - Scratches caused changes in the tickets, which I tweeted, but here they are:

Ticket 1: 2,3,8 with 3,7,9 with 3,6 with 6,8 with 6,8 with 5. = $36
Ticket 2: 2,9,10 with 1,5,7 with 7 with 6,8 with 5,8 with 5,9. = $36

UPDATE - 5:10pm - Ticket 2 started with an exacta and went the rest of the way for an $86.25 payout, but we had it twice for a total of $172.50. I played one other smaller ticket that combined some stuff from Tickets 1 and 2 and I caught it one more time! I hope you played along!

THANK YOU to my readers because todayAndyScoggin in NJ passed 4,000 hits.

Today is the first carryover in the 50¢ Place Pick 6 at Monmouth. So there is $8,307 of essentially free money in today's pool. Although $36 of it is mine and I want to get it back today. The plan of attack is two overlapping $36 tickets with different singles. The first two races are the toughest, so we will go 3 deep in them with one common horse on each ticket. That gives us 5 horses covered in each race and who knows if the common horse comes in and we hit some exactas we could hit the payoff many times.

Ticket 1: 2,3,8 with 4,7,9 with 6,9 with 6,8 with 6,8 with 5. = $36
Ticket 2: 8,9,10 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6,8 with 5,8 with 5,3. = $36
All common horses: 8 with 7 with 9 with 6,8 with 8 with 5. = $1

Friday, September 2, 2011

UPDATE - 4:12pm - Up and down day. I hope you bet Slew's Big Finale in the 4th race. I sure DID! But we are knocked out of the Pick 5 and Place Pick 6. Here is the ticket for the Saratoga $1,000,000 late Pick 4 on races 9-12: 4,8 with 4,6,7,8 with 1,5,12 with 3,8,10. That's $36 for a 50¢ action.UPDATE - 10:45am - No scratches that change the plays. GOOD LUCK today. Let me know if you are going to be at Mth today. I will be there.

Once again, here is an early look at tomorrow's Monmouth action. In the Pick 5 the all Top Choice ticket is only $36, but the total play with the back-ups will run$174.
In the Place Pick 6 we start with two singles, so the ticket is only $27: Let's get it two days in a row: 3 with 4 with 1,4,6 with 2,11,12 with 6,9 with 1,5,11. Check back on Saturday for any changes that the scratches may cause.

In race 4, I love the #3 Slew's Big Finale. Off the claim trainer Jason Servis turned this horse around to win a N3L race with a 71 BSF. That BSF is one of the top figs in the race. This 3YO has 3 wins already and goes into this 20000B claimer that has a N2L restriction for older horses and he has already won at the N3L level. Jockey Luzzi stayed on board when the trainer change happened and he is not a regular rider for Servis, which makes me think he asked to stay on him. He is 3-1 morning line, but I would be extremely happy to get those odds.

In the grade 3 Sapling, which is race 9, I like #1 Voodoo Dancer. Julien Leparoux comes down from Saratoga to ride. This horse is just too fast for the others. He can get clear from the rail, but he will be the favorite. The #3 Scallion should improve off his MSW win where he broke badly. Horses he beat have come back to win. #5 Managed Account should be closing if the speed horses go too fast. #11 Space Traveler won a fast MSW at Mth for Pletcher and will also be closing.

In race 11, the grade 2 Molly Pitcher, the Pletcher trained #5 Quiet Giant looks too tough for the rest of these fillies and mares. She romped in the Lady's Secret at Mth on July 31st earning at 98 BSF. Laparoux is named on this one too. Sorry, but this one will be the favorite also. #1 Payton d'Oro drops out of grade one races. Will that be enough to for her to get a win for Larry Jones? #9 Arena ElviraSCRATCHED.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

UPDATE - 7:50pm - Not a bad day. We hit the Place Pick 6 twice, having the exacta in race 7. Payday of $73.45 x 2 for $146.90. In the Pick 5 we went: 2nd place with $9.80 with $9.40 with 2nd and 3rd place with $8.00 or X/A/A/X/B. Close on the Pick 5.

Tomorrow I will be at Monmouth and will post the usual Pick 5 and Place Pick 6 and possibly a play for the $1,000,000 guaranteed late Pick 4 for Saratoga.

UPDATE - 11:30am Friday - The only scratch of consequence is the #5 in race 10 of the Pick 5. The #13 draws into race 7 and I would like to include him as a back-up. monmouthpark.com has scratched horses listed in the wrong races with the wrong numbers. I am assuming that the names are correct. So the Top Choice Pick 5 ticket goes down to $54 and the full play reduces to $171.No changes in the Place Pick 6. Good Luck today. I will be at the track tomorrow, I think!

Here are Friday's 50¢ Pick 5 and Place Pick 6 plays. These are posted early so you can think about them and check back in the morning after 11:00am for any changes the scratches might cause. In the Place Pick 6 it is our usual $36 ticket: 9,11 with 5 with 2,3 with 2,5 with 1,5,8 with 4,5,8.