Bin Laden: Weary or at end of rope?

Experts speculate on what lies behind haggard visage

Published: Monday, December 31, 2001

Associated Press

NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP)  Osama bin Laden looked pale and gaunt  but as healthy as could be expected of a man on the run, experts say. But some also saw a broken man who seemed to recognize his end was near.

"In the earlier tapes, there was this triumphal note ... and now he's talking about carrying on the struggle after he's gone," said Daniel Benjamin, an expert on international terrorism at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It certainly seems clear that he's aware that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan of which he was so much a part is no longer there."

Bin Laden's whereabouts  and whether he is dead or alive  have for weeks been the subject of intense and conflicting speculation.

On the latest videotape, the leader of the al-Qaida terror network wanted in connection with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks implied he was speaking in early or mid-December. Al-Jazeera, the Arabic satellite channel that aired the 33-minute tape last week, said it arrived by air courier from Pakistan from an anonymous sender.

"Everyone's talking about how gaunt and haggard he looked. He may look gaunt and haggard  I would, too, if I'd been the subject of bombing for months," Benjamin said.

However, "the preponderance of expert opinion is that he's pretty healthy," he said.

Early or mid-December was late in the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which ended Dec. 16. Muslims refrain from food, drink and sex from dawn to dusk during Ramadan.

Unlike his previous tapes, bin Laden did not pause to drink water, suggesting that he was perhaps fasting  and considered himself healthy enough to do so. From their early teens, Muslims have to fast throughout the entire month of Ramadan, although those who are ill are exempt.

"If he was fasting as he spoke for 33 minutes with only one cut in the tape, as far as I could tell, then he is in good shape," said Dia'a Rashwan, an expert on militant Muslim movements with Cairo's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

"If he is fasting, then it means he's not suffering any chronic diseases. If he was speaking after the break of the fast and he didn't pause so often to drink water as he did in previous tapes, then he is also in a good shape," Rashwan said.

The 44-year-old Saudi-born terror suspect long has been rumored, but never confirmed, to be suffering from several illnesses, including kidney and heart trouble.

He appeared more tired than in previous tapes, seemed to have lost some weight, and his long and bushy beard has grown mostly white.

"It is very obvious that he is extremely exhausted, but that's only to be expected, for after all, he is a wanted man on the run," said Mohammed Salah, an expert on bin Laden and Qaida who writes for the London-based Arabic daily Al-Hayat.

In an earlier tape the Pentagon says was found in Afghanistan and dated Nov. 9, bin Laden appeared relaxed as he told a visitor of details of the Sept. 11 attacks and indicated he was involved in their planning.

In the new video, he said: "God willing, the end of America is imminent ... and its end is not dependent on the survival of this slave to God, Osama. Regardless if he (Osama) is killed or survives ... thanks be to God, the awakening has started."

He appeared alone, with none of his top lieutenants by his side as in earlier videotapes. Bin Laden made no mention of Mohammed Atef, the Egyptian who was his military commander and who reportedly was killed in the U.S. bombardment of suspected terrorist bases in Afghanistan.

"In previous tapes, he gloated and was hopeful of resistance and widespread protests in the Muslim world," said Salah of Al-Hayat. "This time he's almost begging for people's sympathy."