UA faculty members make predictions for 2013

Tuesday

Jan 1, 2013 at 12:01 AM

TUSCALOOSA | They may not be fortune tellers with crystal balls and Tarot cards, but they are still able to predict the future.

By Kim EatonStaff Writer

TUSCALOOSA | They may not be fortune tellers with crystal balls and Tarot cards, but they are still able to predict the future.Several University of Alabama faculty members recently offered insight into what might come to pass in the new year during the 32nd annual Educated Guesses project. Presented by UA’s Office of Media Relations, the project gives faculty members an opportunity to make predictions in their areas of expertise. While the guesses do not always come true, the professors have established a decent track record.“We ask faculty to go out on a limb a bit,” said UA spokeswoman Cathy Andreen. “We let them know they won’t be held to it if it doesn’t come true.”From self-driving cars becoming more prevalent to more states legalizing marijuana because of revenue, the 2013 predictions touched on a variety of topics. The 12 UA professors gleaned this information not by any magical means, but by researching and studying current events.Kristy Reynolds, a Bruno professor of marketing at UA, has made predictions the past several years. With a focus on retail shopping behavior, Reynolds said she stays current on all of the business news.“A lot of people want to know what to expect from consumer spending because it drives our economy. It’s a very hot topic,” she said. “Just keeping up with what is going on in the business world provides interesting topics for class discussions and helps build a foundation for what I think might come to pass in the next year or so.”Next year’s prediction: Consumers can expect to see retailers sharpening their online services, as well as adjusting expensive storefront footage. Her prediction builds from past years guesses that have come true. Mobile shopping and consumers using apps to check prices are just two past predictions that Reynolds said were right on the mark.Not all of the predictions made are realized that next year, but quite a few have eventually happened. UA spokesman Chris Bryant said there have been numerous technology-related predictions. Several years ago, one of the communication professors predicted that more people would read the morning paper online before reading the print edition, and in 2002, a computer science professor predicted handheld devices would give people great ability to do things, like reading email in public places.“Remember, this was 10 years ago,” Bryant said. “For some of us, that was a wave that had not yet arrived, and it seemed a bit out on a limb.”Paul Drnevich, an associate professor of strategic management who predicted that “we will go over the fiscal cliff in some capacity next year and it will not be that bad,” said the predictions he remembers most are the ones that turn out to be completely wrong.“Ten years ago, none of us would have predicted Apple would be the raging success that it is,” he said. Some professors, like Ronald Reagan Endowed Chair in Broadcasting Andrew Billings, have been “arguing” their predictions for years. Using data points to study patterns and future trends, Billings predicted that sporting event attendance would drop next year as more people decide to watch events from the comforts of their home.“This is a really great project. Sometimes, you can get too myopic with your research and just describe what’s happening now. What you want to do is take the past and present and project for the future,” he said. “I know people will say that’s just someone’s opinion, but if you take enough data points and research, you can have a pretty reliable opinion.”Here are some of the expert’s predictions:Self-driving cars to take off: Cars able to drive themselves will become more prevalent as the first versions are introduced to consumers during 2013, according to Bharat Balasubramanian, a UA professor with joint appointments in mechanical engineering and electrical and computer engineering. European automakers will begin introducing autonomous cars in the top-tier luxury vehicles in the coming year, marking the first time consumers will be able to buy self-driving cars.Cycling scandal to reverberate throughout sports: “The Lance Armstrong doping scandal is likely to ripple into other major U.S. sports,” said Lance Kinney, associate professor of advertising and public relations at UA. “Not only is Armstrong currently a pariah among his former sponsor brands, Armstrong’s sponsors are suing him to have their already paid sponsorship fees returned.” This could result in more athletes choosing to forgo questionable behaviors that could result in loss of sponsorship money. Fiscal cliff won’t be all bad: As Drnevich explains it, going over the “fiscal cliff” may not be as bad as most fear and likely could be a net positive in the longer term for the U.S. economy. It could force real cuts in federal spending and raise taxes on everyone, which would increase revenue collected by the government. Without real reductions in spending coupled with increases in tax receipts in the coming year, real unemployment will increase, underemployment will increase, food and fuel costs will increase and the national debt will exceed $20 trillion and remain well over 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product, he predicted.Revenue to prompt more states to legalize marijuana: “Once states start enjoying increased tax revenue and having a budget surplus instead of a deficit because of taxing legalized marijuana sales, more states are going to follow suit,” said Mark Lanier, chair of the UA criminal justice department. Along with the prospect of increased revenue, Lanier said states will re-evaluate marijuana laws because of the heavy burden of keeping drug offenders in prison. Lanier also noted that research suggests the cost of marijuana use to society on the whole is less than the costs of alcohol abuse.Rural hospitals face tough choices: Rural hospitals in Alabama will need to combine and coordinate their services — or some will close, said Dr. Richard H. Streiffer, dean of UA’s College of Community Health Sciences.“We have several rural hospitals that are hanging on by a thread because they are trying to maintain the old, autonomous model of hospital, provide full service and be on their own,” he said. Having rural hospitals focus more on primary care and appropriate first-level care is one part of an even broader trend Streiffer predicted for health care across the state and the nation.International intervention in Syria unlikely; Iran to simmer: The civil war in Syria likely will continue throughout 2013 with the international community looking on, said Emily Hencken Ritter, UA assistant professor of political science and an expert in armed conflict. “The two sides don’t trust each other,” she said. “In particular, they have little reason to trust that an agreement, which would require that either the rebels lay down their means of self-protection or that the government would change or both, would be honored once made. Thus, this is likely to be a very long war … as most civil wars are.” In addition, Ritter predicted that the standoff between Iran and an international alliance, including the United States, over Iran’s purported attempt to build a nuclear weapon will continue in 2013. But the chances of Iran finishing a nuclear weapon is low, as is a long-threatened aerial attack by Israel or other forces on Iran’s nuclear program.Health care reform to bring “Five Stages of Grief”: The upcoming year will bring significant changes in health care, according to Marilyn Whitman, assistant professor and coordinator of the undergraduate health care management program at UA. “Arguably, the country is largely in shock over the upcoming changes,” Whitman said. “In many ways, we are paralyzed and numb to the news, and many states are still in denial about the changes. Inevitably, 2013 will see the remaining stages of anger, bargaining, depression and, finally, acceptance. How soon we move though the stages will determine how successful we will be in the coming year.”No decreases for Pell Grant funding: Though new restrictions left thousands without their anticipated funding in fall 2012, Stephen Katsinas, director of UA’s Education Policy Center, said he is confident the federal government won’t axe Pell Grant funding if and when it hammers out a new budget in the coming year. “Mr. Romney supported Pell grants in the second presidential debate; while President Obama benefited from a substantial youth vote, which was concerned about Pell Grants,” said Katsinas. “I think we’re coming to grips with the notion that more of our people need to be educated if we’re to again be No. 1 in the world in higher education. There’s also realization that we’re not going to balance the federal budget on the backs of college students. So, I think prospects are good.”Retailers to keep storefronts, sharpen online services: “Retailers are adopting very sophisticated analytics to monitor competitor pricing,” said Kristy Reynolds, Bruno Professor of Marketing at UA. “They know if they are competitive and whether they need to raise or lower the price.” Another trend Reynolds foresees is stores offering more hands-on experiences using their products and more emphasis on in-person experiences unavailable online.Bad economy to be good for your diet in 2013: Swings in the economy will fuel a continued trend toward shopping at farmers markets as the local or “slow food” movement gains momentum in the coming year. This could help many save money while eating healthier in 2013, said Kristi M. Crowe, assistant professor in the department of human nutrition in the UA College of Human Environmental Sciences.Sporting-event attendance to drop in 2013: “The confluence of high ticket prices, better at-home media viewing and the desire to share athletic experiences with others via social media will result in more tickets being discounted and more seats being empty,” said Andrew Billings, the Ronald Reagan Endowed Chair in Broadcasting in UA’s College of Communication and Information Sciences’ telecommunication and film department.Look for bump in state’s GDP, employment in 2013: Alabama’s gross domestic product, the market value of goods and services produced and often considered an indicator of the state’s standard of living, should grow by about 1.5 to 2.0 percent in 2013, said Ahmad Ijaz, an economic analyst at UA’s Center for Business and Economic Research. Transportation equipment manufacturing, which includes auto manufacturing, will be one of the thriving industries.