Between 2006 and 2020, the world is expected to reach a peak in oil production where world demand for oil resources will be greater than the world's available oil supplies. Learn about oil and natural gas depletion and what that means for the global economy and our way of life in the United States.

Saturday, December 17, 2005

"Peak Oil Is Not a Theory" - Robert Hirsch

Excerpts from testimony of Robert L. Hirsch. Dr. Hirsch is a Senior Energy Program Advisor at SAIC. His past positions include Senior Energy Analyst at RAND; Executive Advisor to the President of Advanced Power Technologies, Inc.; Vice President, Washington Office, Electric Power Research Institute; Vice President and Manager of Research, ARCO Oil and Gas Company; Chief Executive Officer of ARCO Power Technologies, a company that he founded. (Source: http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm)

"The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. A recent analysis for the DOE focused on what might be done to mitigate the peaking of world oil production. It became abundantly clear that effective mitigation will be dependent on the implementation of mega-projects and mega-changes at the maximum possible rate. A scenario analysis was performed, based on crash program implementation worldwide – the fastest humanly possible. The timing of oil peaking was left open because of the considerable differences of opinion among experts. The results were startling: Unless a mitigation crash program is started 20 years before peaking occurs, the economic consequences will be dire. "

"World oil demand is forecast to grow 50 percent by 2025.1 To meet that demand, ever-larger volumes of oil will have to be produced. Since oil production from individual oil fields grows to a peak and then declines, new fields must be continually discovered and brought into production to compensate for the depletion of older fields and to meet increasing world demand. If large quantities of new oil are not discovered and brought into production somewhere in the world, then world oil production will no longer satisfy demand. Peaking means that the rate of world oil production cannot increase; it does not mean that production will suddenly stop because there will still be large reserves remaining. "

"Until recently, OPEC assured the world that oil supply would continue to be plentiful, but that position is changing. Some in OPEC are now warning that oil supply will not be adequate to satisfy world demand in 10-15 years.2 Dr. Sadad al-Husseini, retired senior Saudi Aramco oil exploration executive, is on record as saying that the world is heading for an oil shortage; in his words "a whole new Saudi Arabia (will have to be found and developed) every couple of years'' to satisfy current demand forecasts. So the messages from the world’s "breadbasket of oil" are moving from confident assurances to warnings of approaching shortage. "

"Chinese officials have forecast the peaking of world oil production around the year 2012. As this committee knows, China has been making huge oil investments and procurement deals all over the world in recent years. They attempted to buy Unocal above market price. Indeed they are paying premium prices in many countries in order to secure future oil supplies. "