November 4, 2009

Neither [the Virginia nor the New Jersey] gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president....

Why not? Read... read... read... read... oh, here it is:

White House senior adviser David Axelrod said Tuesday's races were in no way a reflection of public opinion about the president or his agenda. "Whatever's driving these voters, it wasn't attitudes toward the president," he said, noting that local issues and attitudes toward the candidates on the ballots were the major influences.

Why not? Because David Axelrod says not.

Axelrod warned against extrapolating into the future the shift among independents. He said he believed that many people who called themselves Republicans in the past now call themselves independents but are still voting for Republican candidates. "I don't think they portend long-term trends," he said.

He said the only race with real national implications was the congressional contest in Upstate New York.

Noted.

To be fair to Balz, he did get a Republican, Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, to agree with the proposition that the 2009 election was not "a referendum on the president." But on the substance of it, Barbour observed that "[t]he president's policies are very unpopular, and they are hurting Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey, New York."

The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles....

... Mr. Christie and Mr. McDonnell won after decidedly playing down their conservative views on social issues.....

The critical question after this setback [in NY 23] is whether the conservative groups who had clearly signaled that they intended to press their advantage and challenge other Republican candidates they considered too moderate would now have the impetus or support to continue down that road.

Let's see now.... who to go to for quotes?

“[McDonnell] focused on the issues that are on people’s minds: jobs, taxes,” said Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, the head of the Republican Governors Association. “I don’t think there are a lot of governors who are more conservative than I am. But I try to run campaigns on what people are interested in.”...

[David] Axelrod acknowledged that Mr. Obama’s supporters had not shown up in New Jersey and Virginia, but he said he did not believe that meant the end of the Obama coalition.

“That doesn’t mean they won’t come out for us,” he said. “I think they’ll come out for national races. But this wasn’t a national race.”...

The GOP has been flat on its back since the Obama ascendancy in last year's presidential election, but Republican Bob McDonnell's blowout victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor's race and Chris Christie's defeat of Jon Corzine in New Jersey should help dispel the party's gloom.

Yesterday in advance of the results, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was dismissing commentary on the impending bad news as "navel gazing." If so, navel gazing's bad reputation is suddenly looking up. The onrushing Obama Democratic machine has just hit a significant speed bump....

Mr. McDonnell ran straight into the teeth of the blue trend, explicitly campaigning against the policies of the Obama presidency. In at least one swing state that matters, the Obama Democratic ascendancy is on hold....

The overweening liberal-progressive confidence of late suddenly looks misplaced. The party's Blue Dogs have a basis for their misgivings. Republicans, too timid until now, have an opening to find ideas to give obviously anxious voters an alternative to the party in power.

124 comments:

Wednesday, November 04, 2009What do the Election 2009 results mean for (and the congressional Democrats?

It's the economy stupid. Probably the most poignant statement about American politics ever uttered. Obama and Congressional Dems rolled into office on the wave of a shitty economy. Well its now a year later and I have news for Obama disciples; American voters are short on memory and shorter on patience.

Yes yes, I know Obambi hasn't been in office long enough but you know what, don't matter because what people know is its worse now than it was a year ago and like it or not, he's the one sitting in the Big Boy chair. Now if the economy starts roaring back he'll get the credit for it. If not, he can see if Jimmy wants him as successor for Habitat for Humanity in a few years. Assuming anyone has two nickles to rub together to buy a house.

Why was his victory historic? Because of the margin? Nope. Because of clearly stated socialist goals for the country? Nope. Because he is of "mixed" race? Maybe. Because he got people that had never voted before and will possibly never vote again to vote? Likely.

These gubernatorial races portend the end of Obama's presidency. He'll be a one-term lame duck from here on out.

Just yesterday, the AP and the Washington Post were both reporting that health care reform didn't have the votes to pass in either the House or the Senate.

Now why would that be?

Maybe it's because Democrats in the House and the Senate see the writing on the wall. If health care reform passes, the history books aren't going to remember some no-name Democrat Congressman from Poduck. The history books will give all the credit to Barack Obama.

On the other hand, if health care reform passes, that no-name Democrat Congressman from Poduck will be out of a $164,000 a year job with incredible perks.

That's pretty easy calculus in Poduck.

Obama is finished. He'll have plenty of time for midnight basketball now. He can work on his weak jump shot.

Oh and it doesn't help Obama that he was hoisted up as the greatest thing since sliced bread. Yes yes, all those Che like posters which gave him a near Messianic look, the worshipful chants of YES WE CAN! and all the Hollywood glitterati who helped create a persona that simply wasn't up to the task. In other words, you guys built up some pretty big expectations and the results are, well shitty. Kind of like when you go to that hyped up movie everyone is chattering about and then you find out all the best parts were in the 20 second trailer.

In another and more important vote,gold has hit an all time high at $1085 and oz. and oil has jumped to $80 a barrel. As BO loses credibility here at home, the world market is casting its 'no' vote for his economic policies. The dollar is becoming a third world currency

People who see Gubernatorial results and project them to the Nation aren't thinking very well. Certainly this is a good result for Republicans -- they won. The alternative would have been not good. It's not clear to me, though, that someone voting for a Governor is projecting their thoughts about the Nation as a whole. But that's me.

If the Gubernatorial results -- New Jersey, especially, where Obama was campaigning a lot -- were a referendum on Obama, is the Special Election in NY -- the one that Sarah Palin was invested in, and in which "her" candidate lost -- a referendum on her? Why or why not?

Seems to me it's a little early to be reading tea leaves. A lot can happen between now and the 2010 mid-term elections. The only thing I'd be willing to bet on is that the Democrats will lose a little in the House and possibly the Senate, since that often happens to the President's party in mid-terms.

wv: dingthe -- what the Avon lady wanted to do before she was ambushed by a bunny

"People who see Gubernatorial results and project them to the Nation aren't thinking very well."

Bullshit.

Governors control hundreds of thousands of hack jobs throughout the bureaucracy. They're the "presidents" of each of the 50 states.

And that's why Barack Obama spent so much time personally campaigning for these people. He took time away from solving the unemployment crisis to campaign for Corzine ... that's how important he saw these races.

What's important to notice is that in places where Barack Obama didn't show up candidates did well.

But if Barack Obama showed up and campaigned for someone, candidates even in heavily corrupt blue states like New Jersey had their asses handed to them.

Barack Obama is kryptonite. Stay far, far away from him if you want to keep your job.

"If the Gubernatorial results -- New Jersey, especially, where Obama was campaigning a lot -- were a referendum on Obama, is the Special Election in NY -- the one that Sarah Palin was invested in, and in which "her" candidate lost -- a referendum on her? Why or why not?"

Dude, Sarah Palin is a private citizen with a Facebook page. She didn't spend 1 dime on Hoffman (but helped expose Scuzzyfava). She didn't campaign one day in NY23.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, is the elected leader of the free world. He spent the only asset he has - his political capital - and got nothing to show for it.

It says that if fake Republicans spend $900,000 on secretly Democrat candidates ... even Sarah Palin's hot good looks and stunning charisma can't overcome that disadvantage.

But really, Sarah Palin is just a private citizen with a Facebook Page. And with it, she's unmasked the Democrats who have infiltrated the Republican Party. She single-handedly defeated the obese Scuzzyfava.

It's not like Palin has an entire political party (and the national media networks) at her beck and call like Barack Obama does.

Sarah Palin would wipe the floor with Barack Obama in a heads-up match, dude.

The difference between Sarah Palin and Barack Obama is that having a pussy is a plus for Sarah Palin.

Poor President Obama is being attacked by the confused guns and bibles Clingers as always. The new development is that now no one cares any more since Obama has proved that he cares for no one but his Marxist thugs and his Norwegan/international peace by surrender dreamers.Those two groups that he does care for have lots of grant money, but they have only the 30% of the voters that eat off of the government bribe money called grants. Unless he can up that to 50+% of the voters by re-setting all medical care as grants (after destroying the excellent system we have), and re-setting all energy creating devices as grants (after destroying the cheap coal, oil and gas we have), then he is stuck as a loser in every election. Stay tuned.

It very well could have been a referendum on her, although given the bizarre nature of the entire affair that is rather tough to decide upon.

I do agree that the gubernatorial races weren't a referendum on Obama personally though. He wasn't running and for the most part wasn't part of the discussion.

The only reason one could make this about him is due to the fact that he injected himself so visibly into the races (particularly NJ).

I suppose if one really wants to draw a conclusion about him personally one could make the claim that Obama is no longer the electoral attraction some thought him to be (at least when not on the ticket).

If the Gubernatorial results -- New Jersey, especially, where Obama was campaigning a lot -- were a referendum on Obama, is the Special Election in NY -- the one that Sarah Palin was invested in, and in which "her" candidate lost -- a referendum on her? Why or why not?

I'll take a shot at that one. Corzine was an incumbant governor (of a blue state) who spent a shit ton of money on his re-election and had the President of these United States personally come out three times to stump for him and he still lost.

Palin on the other hand is a private citizen who stumped for a 3rd party canidate that didn't really have much of a shot to win to begin with.

Issuewise I have no idea what was in play (I live in PA and the only major state wide election was for the S. Ct.; the R. won).

I'm pretty sure that healthcare/cap and trade/card check all took a big hit last night but that's just common sense. (On a side note I would like to point out that Owens ran against the public option in NY, so even that weird election will hurt the healthcare plans)

Gay marriage is also in trouble as that lost in Maine of all places; the voters voted it down via referendum (it has yet to survive a popular vote in any state).

Taxes were really the only major issue that I can think of which could have national implications. Christie and McDonnell both pushed for lower taxes and less regulation. This'll probably scare the hell out of any blue dog thinking of going along with these massive spending bills.

Both Deeds and Corzine appear to have been the weaker of the candidates in their respective races –Deeds just plain week and Corzine pretty much despised. Obama’s approval/disapproval in VA was about split and in NJ, Obama’s approval rating is actually higher. After looking around a little bit, it seems Barbour and Axelrod are reflecting the polling numbers, so I’d be more likely to believe the numbers and not simply assume that Axelrod is blowing smoke.

The Democrat's position on the election results is the classic "heads I win, tails you lose" proposition. Had Democrats won those races, it would've been hailed as confirmation about how the country loves Obama and his policies. But since they lost, it's no big deal.

Yesterday, the AP and the Washington Post both wrote stories which said that Barack Obama hasn't got the votes in either the House or the Senate to pass his signature health tax legislation.

Democrats control the House and the Senate and the White House and Barack Obama can't muster the votes to pass his own tax increase legislation.

That's all that is important. Obama spent his political capital trying to get Corzine and Deeds elected and got nothing to show for it (Obama didn't show up in NY23 so we'll never know how his kryptonite effect would have crippled Owens had he shown up for the guy).

People don't want to associate with losers. Obama lost last night in contests that he chose to care about in the first meaningful test of his presidency.

All decisions by voters are relative ones. When faced with electing a personable and intelligent half African American, or being seen as a racist nation, then Obama got the swing votes and more. A year later, faced with accepting the end of the USA as a free country with a strong position in the world of nations, or instead rejecting strongly a dithering serial liar that they cannot stand for another second, suddenly the swing votes and more are leaving Obama and all of his helpers. I blame free speech by facebook Rogues.

1) The governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia reflect widespread dissatisfaction with the president. Never mind that the last time these states' governors' offices switched parties--in November 2001, from Republican to Democrat--they did so at the height of a Republican president's popularity.

2) While state elections portend disaster for congressional Democrats, the two congressional elections we saw don't actually matter, regardless of the resources poured into them. After all, Hoffman had yellow teeth!

there's a message in here but time will tell us if it grows. Messages in here are:1) the economy is very important2) don't forget the independants and don't assume they want what you want3) programs are nice and all but where's the money coming from4) "Hope and Change" don't pay very well5) Did i mention the economy?

"Well if you want to equate gay marriage with freedom you're free to do so. Makes you look dumb but hey, to each thier own."

Yes. . . the state allowing and enforcing one kind of contarct between indiviiduals, and NOT allowing or enforcing another kind of contrat between individuals, based on purely religious distinctions, is a question of freedom.

Yes. . . the state allowing and enforcing one kind of contarct between indiviiduals, and NOT allowing or enforcing another kind of contrat between individuals, based on purely religious distinctions, is a question of freedom.

Uh no its not. Not sure where the religious distinctions thing comes in. The state doesn't allow marriage between two women and one man either. Or one between an adult and a minor either. There are plenty of restrictions within a free society but that doesn't make it less free.

I daresay I could find many sensible and more intelligent 16 year olds who are more intellectually capable of voting for President than an equal number of voting age adults but the law doesn't allow it.

If the night continues to go ill for the Democrats after so much personal investment from the president, what will be the explanation?

Or rather what cannot be the explanations? It cannot be a biased media that misrepresented the issues; it cannot be that liberals were overwhelmed and outspent by right-wing big money; it cannot be that third-party liberals drew votes from mainstream Democrats; it cannot be that we are watching red-state returns from a Mississippi or Texas; it cannot be that mysteriously all three candidates were weak and their campaigns uniformly poorly managed; and it cannot be that race was the issue, given there were only so-called white candidates. Yet I doubt news reports will focus on a grass-roots backlash against Obama's disingenuous health care plan, or unprimed economy, or mega-deficits, or squandered government stimuli, or promised higher taxes, or the nexus between big money and big liberalism, or partisan us/them politics, or serial apologetics abroad.

Tonight for the White House, after 10 rather than 24 months, it is a question of adopting either the model of Clinton triangulation or of Carter's sanctimonous finger-wagging path to irrelevance.

The idiot wrote:Yes. . . the state allowing and enforcing one kind of contarct between indiviiduals, and NOT allowing or enforcing another kind of contrat between individuals, based on purely religious distinctions, is a question of freedom.

Can't believe you didn't know that.

He got it wrong. it's supposed to read: "based purely on gender distinctions."

"In a few weeks, the democratic party will have closed up shop and slunk off into the sunset, while a rejuvenated GOP will take their rightful place at the center of the polity."

A few weeks?

Dude, that has already taken place, as evidenced by yesterday's news stories which revealed that Barack Obama cannot even get the Democrat House and Democrat-controlled Senate to pass health tax increase legislation.

Barack Obama has unstoppable majorities in both the House and the Senate and the incompetent boob cannot even pass a simple fucking tax increase.

Dude, that has already taken place, as evidenced by yesterday's news stories which revealed that Barack Obama cannot even get the Democrat House and Democrat-controlled Senate to pass health tax increase legislation.

Harry Reid began hinting yesterday that Health Care Reform might stretch into next year. Which means it won't be done before last August Congressional recess like Obama said repeatedly he believed it would be AND despite all of the Postivie stories in the media that it would happen this week or next, WITH a Public Option AND some form of Federal Money for Abortions.

Well Whorehouse Harry isn't exactly popular in his own state right now which isn't giving him much leverage in trying to arm twist the more sensible Democrats to vote on this POS bill.

Of course Botox Nancy is content with sacrificing some congressional seats to pass HCR but I'm betting her fellow Democrat congresspeoples don't share her willingness to commit hari kari for her legacy.

Like I said, if this is what a huge Democrat majority can accomplish, I'm content to let the GoP wander for awhile. This is fun.

Dude, that has already taken place, as evidenced by yesterday's news stories which revealed that Barack Obama cannot even get the Democrat House and Democrat-controlled Senate to pass health tax increase legislation.

Barack Obama has unstoppable majorities in both the House and the Senate and the incompetent boob cannot even pass a simple fucking tax increase."

I miss Bush. He would just snap his fingers and the republican controlled Congress would jump through whatever particular hoop was placed in frot of them.

Then they would clap their flippers together, Bush would throw them a fish, and Democracy would roll inexorably forward.

Whereas Obama, even though his party WORSHIPS HIM AS A GOD. . . why he can't even pass a major healthcare reform.

The saddest part for the United States in all of this is that of Obama being shown to be not up to the job of President and what that increasingly will mean for race relations in this country. It is heartbreaking that the first black President is currently poised to go down as a Jimmy Carter-type useless and rudderless watcher and not influncer of events.

Obama is going to set race relations back. His failure is going to lead to the kind of finger pointing you describe. It is sad that the first black President had to be someone so unqualified and out of the mainstream.

And Bruce Hayden:I agree. Far better, for race relations, if the first Black President had been Colin Powell, Condi Rice, Michael Steele, etc.

These gubernatorial races portend the end of Obama's presidency. He'll be a one-term lame duck from here on out.

Not there yet, but it won't take much. If the economy deteriorates (quite likely - see Nouriel Roubini) or just stagnates (even more likely - add in those who have given up looking for work and unemployment is in the 17 - 20% range, where it was in 1939), if something large goes boom anywhere inside the country, he's had it.

Florida said...

Barack Obama is kryptonite. Stay far, far away from him if you want to keep your job.

Alpha, Madison, and phos may not want to see it, but that reality is not lost on a great many commentators this morning. Obama hurt, rather than helped people, much like Willie Whitewater.

The irony of the NY-23 is that, as I said in the previous post, this wasn't on the radar until the geniuses at 1600 Pennsylvania brought it up. While Hoffman as a media candidate wasn't ready for prime time, it was an impressive showing by the renascent conservatives, given that it was mounted in the last two weeks.

One more quick point. Bambi better get his Hamlet act together as far as A-stan is concerned. We've seen several sieges of remote outposts by the Taliban. If one goes under this winter and a US Army unit does the Last Stand thing with everybody going down because The Zero dithered on McChrystal's troop requests, there will likely be Hell to pay.

From Politico: "From our perspective we won last night," Pelosi told reporters during a Wednesday morning photo opportunity. "We had one race that we were engaged in, it was in northern New York, it was a race where a Republican has held the seat since the Civil War and we won that seat, so from our standpoint, no, a candidate was victorious who supports health care reform, and his remarks last night said this was a victory for health care reform and other initiatives for the American people."

AlphaLiberal:you're whistling past the grave to claim that 20-point swings from last year in 2 governors' races (one a purple, one a solid blue state) won't mean squat to Dems facing re-election next year.

More than 80 Dem congressmen and twenty senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. There is NO way they ignore last night's results as far as their implications next year in their own races.

But do hold on to it. You will need it come next November. You are invited to bring sarcasm and laughs that day - the trends are that your liberal and Democrat friends will sorely be in need of it then.

When you get a bit older, and have been through enough political cycles, you can fairly accurately see which way the wind is blowing. President Obama is not a stupid man, nor is he a man who does not love his country. He is simply in over his head. He is a shiny car Lincoln Navigator with a tiny, used (recycled, you might say) hyundai engine. The outside looks new and promising, but everything inside that provides the power is simply tired old stuff that has been failing for a long time.

It is inevitable that the same old failed "spend our way out of (name whatever problem you like)______" policies - no matter how often they are tried - can only yield the same results.

Americans are a hopeful bunch - but this economic downturn is deeper than most people alive have experienced before, and this time patience is wearing out sooner than it would have even 20 years ago. Americans are waking up to the sad but inevitable facts, and no amount of spin will protect the current Democrat Congress from losses in the House and Senate next year. The only question is: how much?

So Obama and Pelosi's supermajority means they'll fail the left-wing base if they DON'T get their radical programs passed. And those extreme programs now will have even fewer supporters, as anyone facing a 2010 re-election in less than a slam-dunk district looks to survive, not commit political suicide.

Alpha Liberal makes a decent point, but were conservatives in the 23 district NY against Scozzafava because she was socially liberal or because she was a very pro-union statist?

As someone who is socially liberal (I support gay marriage, like Dick Cheney but unlike Obama) but fiscally conservative I'm happy that Scozzafava dropped out. Owens is much better than she is.

It seems that people like McDonnell (and Mitch Daniels) and others who stay away from social issues but are fiscally conservative and can get some things done could be a big boon for the GOP in the next few election cycles.

I'm not sure what the hangup with Crist is, but I thought he supported the poorly-designed stimulus package, which ticked off some people. I also think that's why a lot of conservatives don't like Arlen Spector. Like W., he's a big government guy. (Of course many conservatives don't like him because he's in favor of Roe v. Wade).

Jay Cost, HorseRaceBlog: "I think last night can be understood as a cautionary tale for the President - and here I would point to the case of New Jersey.

Times are tough in the United States of America. And Corzine's defeat should remind us that when politicians get the blame for tough times - no amount of campaigning, spending, union organizing, or anything of the sort can spare them from the wrath of the voters, even in a state that is highly partial to their side of the aisle. Jon Corzine got the blame for the tough times in New Jersey, and that meant an end to his political career.

If Barack Obama ends up getting blamed for these tough times - no number of rallies, campaign dollars, magnificent speeches in filled-to-capacity stadiums, or optimistic slogans will keep him in the White House."

"Obama and Congressional Dems rolled into office on the wave of a shitty economy. Well its now a year later and I have news for Obama disciples; American voters are short on memory and shorter on patience."

For some people, sure, it's "Why hasn't he fixed this yet."

For other people it's... why isn't he *trying* to fix this yet? The stimulous was unserious and utterly ineffective. And what is on the agenda? Taking over health care (having health insurance attached to jobs might be a stupid way to do it, but more jobs is the quickest way to more health care, atm) and punishing and vilifying business either in relation to health care or in an attempt to solve global warming.

Jobs?

Where is jobs in that?

Where is improving our economy in that?

Or perhaps more people out of work dependent on the government isn't seen as a *problem*?

When you live in a one party state that has the highest property taxes in the country, high state income tax and a high sales tax and debt that is one third the amount of the entire budget, with businesses fleeing as fast as the wealthy, you need to breathe a sigh of relief that at least for the next four years, New Jersey will have some checks and balances in the state capital.

There is no way Obama can avoid taking some responsibility for the Democratic loss in the New Jersey. He sent advisors to run Corzine's campaign, for cripes sake.

The day before the election he appeared at the largest arena we have in the southern part of the state, in the poorest city we have in the state, giving it revival-like appeal. Doors opened at 9am for a 1pm start time! Live internet feed.

That meant that the day of the election, all the headlines were about Obama or Christie, as though they were the two opponents. Very clever tactic actually, but he bet big and lost big. Now deal with it like a man, Mr.President.