QUIKSCAT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM LILI HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED. SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI AT 11 PM AST.

A 26/2319Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH LILI HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THAT A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
NOW EXISTS. IN ADDITION...A 26/2309Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED TO -80 TO -85C
DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL SHEARED. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LILI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSERVATIVELY
BASED ON QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND
STRONGER WINDS IN GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY EXIST IN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/05...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WORD
ESTIMATE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LILI MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD
AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE LILI CLEARS JAMAICA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF LILI
IS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODEL SPEEDS RANGING FROM AS LOW 5 KT BY THE
AVN/GFS MODEL AND AS HIGH AS 12 KT BY THE NOGAPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK WILL USE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD VALUE OF 7 TO 8 KT UNTIL A GOOD
CENTER LOCATION AND INITIAL FORWARD MOTION CAN BE ESTABLISHED BY
RECON DATA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING LILIS DEVELOPMENT THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LETTING UP SOME DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL EXISTS AND ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO LET
UP. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF LILI WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PLACE LILI UNDER MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS LILI TO 75 KT IN
72 HOURS.

i see a few rogue thunderstorms trying to form along swirl bands west of the center.. despite the shear. THAT'S new. shear doesnt look nearly as overwhelming as earlier, and the center is definitely not racing anymore. dont think it will intensify much for the next 24-36.. once shear lets up i'd imagine it will deepen at a more typical pace. long range stuff is a mix of into mexico and into the gulf... if you discount the globals that keep taking it north across haiti (discounted). i'm guessing it will skirt jamaica as a tropical storm tomorrow night and be in deepening mode closer to the yucatan by late sunday. dont buy the fast-west option. intensity and evolution of synoptic features vary on different models, so i wont bother making any best guess tracks, just the general corruption of the NHC official. by the way.. if shear and upwelling dont kill kyle.. i dont know what will.
wave off of africa.. plenty of convection, but not much rotation to it. slow developer if anything, and history favors quick recurvature if it develops very far east of the islands.
fsu.. louisville...!!! those are the kind of upsets i passionately dislike..
HF 0405z27september

its an imaginary fish spinner, but i leave no stone unturned! GFDL and NOGAPS both want to make a quick developing, east moving low near 25/45 in about 24 hours. at least at 12Z they did. so, watch for meaningless marco.. or nothing.
going for the high count, baby.
HF 0436z27september

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