A look at the forecast for this flu season

Area health specialists say it's too soon to say how bad this year's flu season will be.

But last month, experts in the New England Journal of Medicine looked at some data about the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere, and their results were ominous.

In Australia, where winter hits during summer in the U.S., the flu shot did not prevent the country from seeing a record number of flu cases and more hospitalizations than usual for flu-related illnesses.

When the results came in, the flu shot was only 10 percent effective against the influenza A strain.

"The implications for the Northern Hemisphere are not clear, but it is of note that the vaccine for this upcoming season has the same composition as that used in the Southern Hemisphere," the report's authors wrote. "As we prepare for a potentially severe influenza season, we must consider whether our current vaccines can be improved and whether longer-term, transformative vaccine approaches are needed to minimize influenza-related morbidity and mortality."

As flu patients begin to trickle into the area's health systems, local infectious disease officials are emphasizing the importance of the flu shot.

It may not provide 100 percent protection from the virus, but there are plenty of health benefits that come with it, said Marie Keim, director of epidemiology and infection prevention at Reading Hospital.

"I think we're still waiting to hear how effective it might be," Keim said. "It's still going to help provide antibodies to help fight influenza."

Ineffectiveness

The flu shot has been plagued by stories of its ineffectiveness.

In 2014-15, the flu vaccine was only 13 percent effective against influenza A. At any given time, the virus that's circulating can drift or mutate from the strains that are included in the vaccine.

Doctors won't know if the vaccine is a good match for this year's virus until they start seeing patients coming in with flu-like symptoms.

During bad years, the area's hospitals might need to set up flu clinics to keep the contagious flu patients away from the rest of the patient population. The good news is there hasn't been a need for a flu quarantine zone in the last few years, said Mari Driscoll, director of infection control and prevention for Penn State Health St. Joseph Medical Center.

Driscoll said the flu shot has been shown to weaken the symptoms in the people who do get the virus.

Even if it's not 100 percent effective, or anywhere close to it, the flu shot is still a public health tool, the report in the New England journal says. From 2005 to 2014, the shot has saved about 40,000 lives, according to estimates from the CDC.

"It's our obligation as a health care provider to help educate the public about the benefits and the risks to anyone if they don't," Keim said about getting the flu vaccine.

A higher vaccination rate among healthy adults can help limit the spread of the virus, protecting the very young and seniors who may be vulnerable to flu complications, Driscoll said.

"I think even if it's not going to prevent someone from getting influenza, it will keep their symptoms somewhat contained, and it won't be as bad as if they didn't get the vaccine," Driscoll said. "It will keep them away from the emergency department. Most of the people who have confirmed influenza have not been vaccinated."

Hospital reports, preparations

The flu season has not caused too many headaches at the area's major hospitals so far this winter.

As of Dec. 23, there have been 345 reported flu cases in Berks County this season. That places Berks just behind Allegheny County for the most reported positive flu tests so far.

But it's still too early to say how many patients will come when the season hits its peak, Keim and Driscoll said.

"We're continuing to see some influenza A, maybe four to six cases a day," Keim said.

At Penn State Health St. Joseph, the flu numbers are similarly small, Driscoll said.

"We've seen a couple every day," Driscoll said. "It is all flu A, which is a little more serious."

The preparation for the flu is all about communication across the entire health system, Keim said. She said a steering committee featuring representatives from all areas of the system discuss best practices and focus on limiting the spread of the virus.

"It keeps us aware of how we all help each other," she said.

Same tips

Every year, area health experts provide the same tips to help avoid the flu.

"It's important everyone over 6 months of age get it, pregnant women, the elderly," Keim said of the flu shot.

After getting the flu shot, people should also be vigilant about washing their hands and coughing into their elbows to avoid spreading germs into the air.

If you're sick, it's a good idea to stay home from school or work to help limit the virus from circulating in the community, Driscoll said.

She said the symptoms of the flu - fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches - can pack a nasty punch.

"I do think people underestimate it," she said. "They think that they've never gotten the flu in the past, so they just don't think about it."

At the area hospitals, everyone is preparing for a busy flu season but hoping it's not a bad year.

"We can't tell if it's going to stay steady like this or if we are going to have spikes," Driscoll said, "so we have to be prepared."

Contact Matthew Nojiri: 610-371-5062 or mnojiri@readingeagle.com.

Flu symptoms

Fever or feeling feverish/chills

Cough

Sore throat

Runny or stuffy nose

Muscle or body aches

Headaches

Fatigue (tiredness)

Some people may have vomiting and diarrhea, though this is more common in children than adults.

High risk for flu complications

People 65 years and older

People of any age with certain chronic medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease)

Pregnant women

Young children

Cold versus flu

The flu is worse than the common cold, and symptoms are more common and intense.

People with colds are more likely to have a runny or stuffy nose.

Colds generally do not result in serious health problems, such as pneumonia, bacterial infections or hospitalizations.

Flu can have very serious associated complications.

Who should get the vaccine?

Everyone 6 months and older should get a flu vaccine every season.

Children younger than 6 months are too young to get a flu shot.

People with severe, life-threatening allergies to flu vaccine or any ingredient in the vaccine should not get the flu shot. This might include gelatin, antibiotics, or other ingredients.

Treatment

Antiviral drugs can lessen symptoms and shorten the time you are sick by 1 or 2 days.

They also can prevent serious flu complications, like pneumonia.

For people at high risk of serious flu complications, treatment with antiviral drugs can mean the difference between milder or more serious illness possibly resulting in a hospital stay.

Cases

Between 600,000 and 2.4 million Pennsylvania residents will get the flu this year.