Discuss 6/11 conference

Only thing missing was non-immediate pipeline (nothing about cMet, IDO or JAK-1 drugs). "Withdrawal syndrome" was another one like Tefferi's star example (very sick fellow with, among other things, return of MF). More detail on what everyone already knew on the PML case and its handling. Assertion that debt conversion was a simple business decision (well, they can't give any other answer there). Reiteration that Jakavi milestone is expected in second half. Some very obvious stuff about why bari is an easier approval deal than tofa.

Interesting to speculate on choice of lead presenter: did they want someone clearly outside of secret corporate mumbo-jumbo? Happier talker than the guys we know and love? Is this a star turn for someone moving either up or out? I really think something is going on, so my nod goes to 'm-j outsider.'

I think the JML discussion is necessary to prevent investors from being blind-sided if the FDA decides a boxed warning is warranted, an invent, if it happens, I expect will create a buying opportunity.

i do have to say that i have listened to lots of presentations and cc's by incyte and this one to me was one of their best, interesting that the stock still gets no love, still stuck in a very bearish trend

About the no love. Morgan Stanley is pretty influential, and their analyst (I think his name is Friedman, so I'll call him Morgan Stanley to avoid confusion) has laid his cards on the table: he considers Jakafi a bad drug and the market size topped out (which seriously impairs financing the pipeline). On the other hand, McMinn at BoA/ML is enthusiastic, and also influential. Incyte is a very institutional stock, so to the extent that sell-side analysts matter at all, Morgan Stanley is likely to get a better hearing.

Has Jakafi topped out? I can tell you what sorts of side effects to watch out for: serious bleeding incidents and superficial infections progressing to loss of limbs (consequences of drops in platelets and neutrophils). We aren't seeing them so far. Without those, Jakafi is tried by at least 2/3 of medium risk and 1/2 of high risk MF, which is still some expansion.

I guess, if you buy the whole Morgan Stanley case, it makes some sort of sense to attach no value to the pipeline. Accepting my dissection of Incyte into Jakafi, royalties and drug developer, if Jakafi yields little profit and royalties run OOM $25MM annually, the drug developer is barely being kept active.

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