Asked by a reporter at the state party convention this summer what he thought might save Democrats at the polls, California Democratic Party chairman John Burton had one word: "Pot."

Proposition 19, he elaborated in a recent interview, could bring to the polls young and nontraditional voters who usually skip the midterm elections. Those voters, Burton reasoned, would "more likely than not" vote for Democrats and provide some relief for the party in what looks nationally to be a grim year.

"It's just what my gut tells me," Burton said. "But I've been around long enough that my gut is smarter than my brain."

If Burton's gut is right, it would mean a fundamental shift is underway in pot politics. Conventional wisdom in the marijuana community holds that ballot initiatives should be run during president election years, so as to ride the turnout wave the top-of-the-ticket race creates. What Burton is suggesting is that politicians now may be able to ride marijuana's wave.

Issues can galvanize voters

It is not unheard of for a ballot initiative to eclipse the candidate campaigns during an election season, said Daniel Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida who studies the subject. Using detailed statistical analysis, Smith has shown that certain ballot issues — gay marriage or minimum-wage measures, for instance — can not only boost voter turnout but also shape how voters view and choose candidates.

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"They have to be these highly salient measures that are able to galvanize people around an issue," Smith said.

And Smith isn't certain marijuana is that type of an issue. For one, it cuts across party lines more than other issues, uniting progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans, while alienating socially conservative members of both parties. A recent survey from the firm Public Policy Polling found just such an effect, with 56 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans supporting the California measure. Overall, the poll showed Proposition 19 ahead, but with less than 50 percent of the vote and still with 15 percent of voters undecided.

Second, Smith said, there is no research suggesting past marijuana elections have generated higher turnouts. A Denver Post analysis of 26 statewide marijuana-related elections since 1980 — using data compiled by George Mason University political science professor Michael McDonald — reached the same conclusion.

The analysis found that average voter turnout rate for even-year statewide elections in the 12 states surveyed was about 54 percent of the voting-eligible population. In years where marijuana was on the ballot — either for medical marijuana, legalization or drug-crime-sentencing reform — the average turnout was nearly identical, about 53 percent. And there was virtually no difference in turnout rates during elections when marijuana won versus when marijuana lost.

The Post also found no noticeable change to which party voters selected during marijuana elections.

Closely watched race

In Colorado, for instance, voters have elected Democrats about 43 percent of the time in state-and-federal-level partisan elections since 1980. During the state's two marijuana elections — 2000 and 2006 — voters elected Democrats about 51 percent of the time. But Coloradans have been choosing Democrats more often in recent years, and since 1998 the state has elected Democrats about 49 percent of the time.

In California, where residents have voted on marijuana three times in the past two decades, voters have picked Democrats about 59 percent of the time since 1980. During the marijuana elections — all in presidential years — they elected Democrats 60 percent of the time.

Still, Smith said political scientists and pollsters will be closely watching Proposition 19 to see what impact it has on California's overall election.

California Democrats, meanwhile, have only cautiously embraced the measure, despite Burton's analysis. The state party is neutral on the measure, and the party's top-of-the-ticket candidates are opposing it. But a number of party subgroups and local party chapters have endorsed the initiative.

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