1) Spurs
2) Warriors (assuming bogut and curry stay health, significant games lost due to injury drops them into a 3-way tie for 4th)
3) Houston
4) OKC (OKC REALLY sh!t the bed when they traded Harden a year early. They don't seem to be willing/able to fill out their roster with the right pieces, I think their championship window is now closed.)
Tied for 5th Memphis & LAC. (If GSW faces some injuries these 3 teams will be fighting it out for the 4th spot)

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

1. OKC - still have 2 top 10 players and Ibaka is still a defensive force. They have a couple of good players coming off the bench as well.
2. Spurs - Until they start looking old I just have to have them in my top 4
3. Warriors - If Curry goes down they will struggle in the playoffs
4. Houston - I really like this team if they can add another perimeter shooter to surround Howard

Anyone think that this upcoming season is going to be the most competitive season in a long time? It seems like a lot of teams have benefited from the development of young talent... The West in particular is crazy.

Barring injuries, yes.

Most frightening is the elite continue to be the elite while the competition to run on the treadmill (7-11) is getting more intense.

I'm starting to think more and more a proper rebuild should be a priority unless a bonafide all-star is coming back to Toronto to partner with Lowry-Gay-JV. The only one I can think of right now who conceivably could be available is Al Horford given the signing of Paul Millsap and the pursuit of Bynum. But even then I would think there is a lot more value in the league for what Toronto could offer.

Could be moves to tank or could be moves to strengthen, but I get this feeling that Ujiri has some surprises coming up via trade. It seems like he's just waiting for the FA agency period to pass.

I agree. I think he's also evaluating the moves made by other bubble teams, to help determine whether a 'compete now' or 'rebuild/retool' strategy is in the best long-term interest of the team. With so many perennial lottery teams making bold moves to try and become relevant in what was long perceived to be a weak playoff race, the 'tanking' competition has suddenly thinned out substantially. Even some degree of 'tanking' (aka big retooling) is suddenly much more attractive and potentially advantageous, than it was even a week ago.

MU has already shown a willingness to make definitive moves (Bargnani trade) to shape the team the way he sees fit, so I think there's a method to his madness, even if it makes for slow, frustrating days of chatting here on RR. I can't help but feel this is the calm before the storm, so to speak.

Could be moves to tank or could be moves to strengthen, but I get this feeling that Ujiri has some surprises coming up via trade. It seems like he's just waiting for the FA agency period to pass.

This last part is my impression.

I mean, really, the team doesn't have the resources to make any major free agency plays. It makes perfect sense to sit back and wait for other teams to do what they want. I don't know if he'll make any major moves this summer, but it's hard to play the trade market when other teams are filling out their rosters.

I'm also really happy that nothing really leaks from this front office so far, not even vague statements. I don't know what direction he's going in or if he's going to try to start it this summer. But judging by the Bargs trade, whether he makes moves now or later, he'll bust his ass maxing out the value of guys when he trades them. Anyone wonder how many hours he spent on the phone shopping Bargs? And then on top of that getting a deal that was basically highway robbery? Yeah, he definitely bought himself a season or two of good faith from me.

With so many perennial lottery teams making bold moves to try and become relevant in what was long perceived to be a weak playoff race, the 'tanking' competition has suddenly thinned out substantially. Even some degree of 'tanking' (aka big retooling) is suddenly much more attractive and potentially advantageous, than it was even a week ago.

Surprisingly teams like Detroit, Cleveland and even Charlette are not tanking. At least the plan is not to, it seems. This makes tanking more appealing.

I'm not in favour of 'partial' or 'some degree' of tanking though. Not that it can't work, but Toronto has tried it too often and failed. Too much time has been wasted trying to do that.

But judging by the Bargs trade, whether he makes moves now or later, he'll bust his ass maxing out the value of guys when he trades them. Anyone wonder how many hours he spent on the phone shopping Bargs? And then on top of that getting a deal that was basically highway robbery? Yeah, he definitely bought himself a season or two of good faith from me.

The Bargs trade gave me the impression that 'tanking' is going to happen but I could be totally wrong. I think so 'cause trading Camby and Q Richardson in separate deals for 2nd rounders is not impossible.

I think Ujiri got back much, much more than he expected and it(trading Bargs) was much easier than he expected. Novak is a liability but Bargs was a bigger one.

Question, OKC is small market team, but are the owners willing to invest into them beyond luxury tax, to keep them contenders? For me now it's no because they traded Harden as he was easy replacement, but maybe there's more behind this?

Question, OKC is small market team, but are the owners willing to invest into them beyond luxury tax, to keep them contenders? For me now it's no because they traded Harden as he was easy replacement, but maybe there's more behind this?

SA is a small market team that has proved that if spending keeps them a 'top team', it's worth it. I don't know the dynamics of the OKC market but I don't see why they wouldn't do the same IF THEY HAVE TO.

SA is a small market team that has proved that if spending keeps them a 'top team', it's worth it. I don't know the dynamics of the OKC market but I don't see why they wouldn't do the same IF THEY HAVE TO.

Well Harden was pretty obvious case, that they have to extend him. This is why I'm scratching my head now. I remmember he wanted more, but at the same time he mentioned that he wants to stay.

I'm finding it harder and harder to imagine the Raptors in the playoffs. They look like the 9th or 10th most talented team in the East right now in my opinion. If Bynum goes to the cavs and returns to form, they might even drop an extra spot in my predictions.

I'm finding it harder and harder to imagine the Raptors in the playoffs. They look like the 9th or 10th most talented team in the East right now in my opinion. If Bynum goes to the cavs and returns to form, they might even drop an extra spot in my predictions.

I think #6-12 in the East are all close right now (adding Cleveland and Milwaukee to the list above). There seems to be a pretty clear top-5 and bottom-3 (Charlotte, Philly and Orlando), leaving a highly competitive group of 7 bubble teams to fight over just 3 playoff spots.

Although I'm not [yet] on board with any degree of tanking, this is the one year where tanking is significantly better than being one of the teams aggressively fighting for the playoffs that winds up missing the playoffs and getting #12-14 pick, given the immense talent projected to be at the top of the draft. I think that's the fence that MU is straddling right now... to fight on the bubble or tank... tough call for a new GM to make, especially with the expectations he and TL have been talking about.

Well Harden was pretty obvious case, that they have to extend him. This is why I'm scratching my head now. I remmember he wanted more, but at the same time he mentioned that he wants to stay.

It's the reason I put "IF THEY HAVE TO' in capital letters(first post). Obviously they decided that they could remain just as competitive after the trade and it seemed to be working. If I'm right they fell to SA, the eventual runner-up, in the play-offs.

The Knicks are not a lock for the playoffs. Swapping Novak for Bargnani was probably a very bad idea. They also lose depth at PG without Kidd. Amare and Chandler are both one year older. There is more competition in the East then last year, so they may lose more games. I don't know if they will start the season with the same hot streak as last year.

I don't know.. although I didn't think the Knicks would make the playoffs last year and they did.

Looking at the Charlotte fan boards, they are evenly split after the Jefferson signing - half of them are "we should tank" and half of them are "WHO ELSE CAN WE GET LET'S DO THIS!" They are seriously psyched. It's nuts.

I wonder if Charlotte would go for a mega-trade, taking Rudy and maybe a couple of other players (Lowry, maybe Ross or DeMar or Acy, maybe the rights to Zubcic) from us in exchange for a number of their picks, Ben Gordon's terrible but expiring contract, Ramon Sessions' contract and maybe one good young player like Gerald Henderson who's an RFA anyway. Instantly upgrades them to near-contender status, gives us the tank we want plus a good young asset.

Looking at the Charlotte fan boards, they are evenly split after the Jefferson signing - half of them are "we should tank" and half of them are "WHO ELSE CAN WE GET LET'S DO THIS!" They are seriously psyched. It's nuts.

I wonder if Charlotte would go for a mega-trade, taking Rudy and maybe a couple of other players (Lowry, maybe Ross or DeMar or Acy, maybe the rights to Zubcic) from us in exchange for a number of their picks, Ben Gordon's terrible but expiring contract, Ramon Sessions' contract and maybe one good young player like Gerald Henderson who's an RFA anyway. Instantly upgrades them to near-contender status, gives us the tank we want plus a good young asset.

Charlotte would be one of the first teams I called in regards to a Rudy Gay deal if I'm Ujiri.
Reports are that they want to get out of the basement and the Jefferson signing reaffirms that. They have a few young, cheap assets with room left to grow and they even have two 2014 first round picks, so the chances of them giving up one are probably greater than other teams who only have their own.

The Knicks are not a lock for the playoffs. Swapping Novak for Bargnani was probably a very bad idea. They also lose depth at PG without Kidd. Amare and Chandler are both one year older. There is more competition in the East then last year, so they may lose more games. I don't know if they will start the season with the same hot streak as last year.

I don't know.. although I didn't think the Knicks would make the playoffs last year and they did.

Knicks are a definite playoff team in my opinion barring crazy injury (but that can be said for a lot of teams).

I do think they will be a first round exit.

They won't beat BKN, MIA, IND, or CHI in the regular season standings or playoffs.

They have THREE 2014 first-round picks. Their own, Detroit's (protected top 8) and Portland's (protected top 12). Given Detroit and Portland's offseason improvements, it's quite possible that all three picks fire off this year.