21 February 2011

Gender & the latest Ipsos-Mori poll...

Maximum Eck at surf, courtesy of the Scottish Government

A certain opinionated Burd has an excellent post, arguing that "Holyrood won't be over until the ladies sing". Regular readers will know that I have an abiding interest in the role of women in Scottish politics and with May's approaching election, a heightened curiosity about the voting intentions and behaviour of my female fellow Scots. Although the effectiveness of political strategy may be rather like the riddle of silence - name me and you shall break me - I'd submit that there are clear signs that SNP are showing a heightened interest in the gendered dimension of their communications and are seizing opportunities to emphasise this. Of late we have heard encouraging noises from Alex Salmond about Scotia's damsels, whether that involved web-chatting with Mumsnet, emphasising the importance of his female relationships on Desert Island Discs, or seizing the opportunity of Liz Lochhead "Makaration" to make some positive observations about the too often neglected literary voices of Scotland's women. Clearly, such such crotchets do not a melody make, but in their small way, they contribute to the background atmosphere in a way that is not unimportant or incidental. While Kate focussed on the SNP/Labour factor, I thought it might be useful just to tease out in raw numerical terms what the latest Ipsos-MORI poll has to say about the broader gendered differences in responses recorded. I covered the poll's more widely discussed topline figures in a post last week.

On first constituency intentions, amongst those certain to vote...

SNP ~ Men 32% Women 24%

Labour ~ Men 26% Women 29%

Tory ~ Men 11% Women 7%

Liberal Democrats ~ Men 5% Women 9%

On first constituency intentions, amongst all respondents...

SNP ~ Men 42% Women 33%

Labour ~ Men 32% Women 40%

Tory ~ Men 15% Women 11%

Liberal Democrats ~ Men 7% Women 12%

On second list voting intentions, amongst those certain to vote...

SNP ~ Men 39% Women 31%

Labour ~ Men 27% Women 39%

Tory ~ Men 16% Women 10%

Liberal Democrats ~ Male 9% Women 11%

Greens ~ Male 5% Women 7%

On second list voting intentions, amongst all respondents...

SNP ~ Men 37% Women 31%

Labour ~ Men 31% Women 38%

Tory ~ Men 14% Women 12%

Liberal Democrats ~ Male 9% Women 11%

Greens ~ Male 4% Women 6%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland?

Satisfied ~ Men 56% Women 46%

Dissatisfied ~ Men 34% Women 35%

Don't know ~ Men 10% Women 19%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Iain Gray is doing his job?

Satisfied ~ Men 32% Women 34%

Dissatisfied ~ Men 41% Women 28%

Don't know ~ Men 27% Women 38%

On the issues, what is the "most important issue facing Scotland today?"

And there's the rub, Peter. What? is always an easier question to answer than why? Sociologically, we could spend days mooting and speculating on the diffuse causes of voting behaviour in different corners of the country. In terms of political practice, I'd suggest we can ask a much more limited series of questions, the most critical of which being how can the SNP improve its appeal amongst women? Working up an effective answer to the question may well provide critical for the party's fortunes, come May.

“I think of him more of a long nosed, elegantly coiffed Afghan pawing through his leather bound library whilst disdainfully inhaling a puddle of Armagnac in an immense crystal snifter. If he can also lift his leg over his shoulder and lick his balls...” ~ Conan the Librarian™

“... the erudite and loquacious Peat Worrier who never knowingly avoids a prolix circumlocution.” ~Love and Garbage

“My initial mind picture was of a scanty bikini'd individual wallowing in a bath tub of peat. However I've since learned to warm to him, and like peat he's slow to draw but quick to heat...” ~Crinkly & Ragged Arsed Philosophers

Definition: "to worry peat" v.

"Peat worrying" is the little known or understood process for the extraction of cultural peat, practised primarily in the Lowlands of Scotland by aspirant urban rustics. Primary implements by means of which successful "worrying" is achieved include the traditional oxter-flaughter but also the sharp-edged kailyard and the innovative skirlie stramasher.