By Sovinda Po

Will Cambodia Become a Battlefield of a New Cold War?

The
perception of a new Cold War between China and the US seems to have emerged. Former
White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, during an August interview with The American Prospect, stated that the
United States is “at economic war with China ... One of us is going to be a
hegemon in 25 or 30 years and it’s gonna be them if we go down this path.” In
sync with these comments, US President Donald Trump has launched investigations
into Chinese intellectual property theft that could lead to US tariffs on
Chinese imports. It seems that the Trump administration views China as a possible
threat to US preeminence.

According
to George Washington University historian Gregg Brazinsky in his new book, Winning
the Third World: Sino-American Rivalry During the Cold War, Washington has long
feared that “China will spread a model of political and economic development
that will fundamentally undermine the liberal international order that the
United States seeks to uphold.” This is to say that Washington favors national
self-determination within a liberal, capitalist international order while
China, by contrast, prefers economic, socialist self-reliance. Historically,
these different views have led China and the US into open conflict, first in
the Korean War in which China backed North Korea and the US backing the South; and
later in Vietnam where China buttressed the communist insurgency against the
French and then the Americans.

Cambodia
was the victim of this great power competition during the 1970s. Lt. Gen. Lon
Nol, the premier and defense minister held a pro-US foreign policy while Prince
Sihanouk, the head of state, pursued a neutrality policy, and was seen tilting
towards China. The prince was under pressure from the US and South Vietnam for
his tolerance of the North Vietnamese and sanctuary for the Vietcong in the
eastern region of Cambodia. With strong US support, Lon Nol led a bloody
military coup to oust the prince when he was on his way back to Cambodia from a
tour of Europe, the Soviet Union, and China. However, due to the withdrawal of
American soldiers in South Vietnam, Lon Nol was defeated in 1975 by the
Cambodian communist leader Pol Pot, who was underpinned by China and North
Vietnam. Cambodia under Pol Pot saw the brutal extermination of nearly 2
million people.

Recently,
the arrest of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) leader Kem Sokha on the
charge of treason — his alleged conspiracy with the US to seize power from the
ruling Cambodia People’s Party (CPP) — and the closure of local media and the
National Democratic Institute (NDI), an American-funded institution to promote
democracy in Cambodia and around the world, have caused more political friction
among Cambodian political elites and sparked more debate about the future
direction of Cambodia’s foreign policy. The question that needs to be answered is
whether Cambodia is likely to move along a tragic historical path.

Following
Kem Sokha’s arrest, the US ambassador to Cambodia
William Heidt delivered a statement denying all the allegations associated with the US, and stated
that he was surprised that Kem Sokha was accused of being connected with the US.
The ambassador found all of it extraordinary and called for the immediate
release of Kem Sokha. However, the ambassador did not acknowledge the fact that
the NDI, according to its 2009 report “Electoral Reform in Cambodia:
Program Consultation Reports,” has provided technical assistance
to parties and civic groups and aided democratic activists working through
these groups on electioneering. Different groups may interpret this differently;
however, to the Cambodian ruling elites, this could be seen as interference in
Cambodia’s political process, thereby justifying the expulsion of the NDI from
the country.

Even
though the current situation has not yet returned Cambodia to the old tragic
days of great power rivalry, Cambodia under the ruling CPP needs to critically
consider the consequences of alienating the US and embracing China.

China
has stepped in to lend a hand to Cambodia. China’s foreign affairs spokesperson Geng Shuang announced that China
would support Cambodia’s effort to protect national security and stability. During
his meeting with Cambodian National Assembly president Heng Samrin, Wang Jiarui, the Vice President of
the National Committee of the Chinese’s People Political Consultative
Conference said: “China will cooperate and assist Cambodia in all
circumstances.” China has long believed that regime change in authoritarian
states has been one of the top priorities of US policy across the globe, for
example in Syria and Serbia. Moreover, China, which perceives itself as the patron
of Cambodia, needs to sustain Hun Sen’s regime partly because a new leadership
from the opposition party may not grant China its geopolitical interests, such
as support for China in the South China Sea dispute.

Some analysts have commented that the
current great power rivalry in Cambodia is a new type of Cold War, reminiscent
of what happened in 1960s and 1970s when the foreign policy orientation of the
political leaders was politically divided. One should notice that the situation
is now a small-scale version of great power competition between China and the
US. With that said, to predict what would happen in the short-term future, we will
need to closely observe the evolving dynamics of great power politics in
Cambodia.

First,
the power contest between China and the US in Asia is one of the key yardsticks
to determine whether Cambodia is likely to become a Cold War battleground.
American power today under President Donald Trump is seen as waning while
Chinese power under President Xi Jinping is seen as growing. This could be the
reason why President Trump is not interested in the promotion of democracy and
human rights as evident in his speeches as well as his “America First” slogan. President
Trump has also proposed to cut the financial budget for aid to developing countries.
In that proposal, Cambodia could be hit by a 70 percent cut, with a decline in
contributions to Cambodia from USD 77.4 million to USD 22.9 million, as well as
the complete eradication of development assistance worth USD 34.8 million and USD
8 million in economic support.

Trump’s
proposed budget cut could mean the end of democracy and human rights promotion.
This could also mean a downgrade in the US pressure against Cambodia’s CPP
government. This argument rests on the assumption that if people are aware of
their right to take part in democratic elections, it will not be easy for the CPP
to take the free ride. In this case, for Cambodia to become a Cold War battleground,
the Trump administration has to keep upholding conventional practices like his
predecessors have done. However, what is happening now is the exact opposite.

Second,
the domestic power asymmetry between the CPP and the CRNP is another
determining factor. Despite technical and financial assistance to the CNRP from
the US, it does not have a likely chance to win the upcoming elections in 2018.
One has to be aware that the ruling CPP has complete control over the military.
As deputy military commander Chea Dara stated: “Every soldier
is a member of the People’s Army and belongs to the CPP because Samdech Decho
[Hun Sen] is the feeder, caretaker, commander, and leader of the army.” More
recently, as proposed by Hun Sen, Cambodia’s National Assembly has approved
four amendments to the country’s electoral law, allowing for the dissolution of
the CNRP and the redistribution of its seats to smaller government-aligned
parties.

Even
though the current situation has not yet returned Cambodia to the old tragic
days of great power rivalry, Cambodia under the ruling CPP needs to critically
consider the consequences of alienating the US and embracing China. This could,
for example, lead to economic vulnerability arising from being too dependent on
China; domestic political divisions arising from different foreign policy
ideologies; China’s political proxy state, non-neutral foreign policy
orientation; and, most seriously, civil war. To avoid these consequences, the
Cambodian government should encourage national unity, promote fair and democratic
multi-party elections, strengthen democratic institutions, and preserve the rule
of law. These are the ways forward and they remain the only hope for the ordinary
Cambodian people.

About The Author

Sovinda Po is a Cambodian scholar of International Relations at School of Advanced International and Area Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai. He is also a regular contributor to IPP Review, The Diplomat, East Asia Forum, Australian Institute of International Affairs, and New Mandala.