1) A no-deal Brexit will enable the UK to start negotiating with the 'EU 26' as a free and independent entity and not as a supplicant, begging favors. 2) Current "supplicant" negotiations do not reflect the balance of trade which is strongly to the UK's advantage:(a) the UK is the second largest market in the world for the EU 26 (in 2015 the EU 26 exported €322 billion to the US and €307 billion to the UK); (b) in 2015, the UK exported much more to the US (€56 billion p.a.) than it did, on average, to individual members of the EU 26 (€6.84 billion p.a.).Source: 'Brexit Scenarios Framework - June 2016' published by Morgan Stanley

Why do many columnist ignore other alternatives. Here we are presented with only two which both end with the UK leaving the EU. Please explain to me why we can not '#AbandonBrexit'. The whole debacle is a lesson in what happens when idiots and fools run the asylum.

If Deal is approved by Parliament, DUP will surely pull out and govt will fall.

In fact, Jeremy should instigate a passing of the deal, if Labour wants an election.

Parliament approving the Deal is a win-win for all.....May saves her face (Loses her PMship which anyhow will be inconsequential with 117 rebels amongst the tories, Jeremy gets an election......UK & EU go home happy).

Well written article but it focuses only on the British side of the equation. The fact is that the EU too is going through a period of 'shambles and shenanigans'. Merkel is bowing out, Macron looks shaky, Italy is walking on the wild side, the Visegrad countries are not cracking under pressure- yet Juncker is acting as if it were still 2014 and that the EU was evolving towards a United States of Europe. After all, Juncker was the first 'Spitzenkandidaten' who got confirmed despite the objections of the UK and Hungary. Since then, he has scarcely been a 'Presidential' figure. He is accused of drunkenness and comes across as deeply provincial Luxembourgeois.

The EU assumed that Capital would be more mobile than Labor, that European populations were homogeneous, and that there a European version of the American 'melting pot' would spontaneously manifest even though there is no common language or 'Thanksgiving' type unifying narrative.

It remains to be seen whether the EU can have an effective common defense force and a unified foreign policy. What is certain is that progress has been very slow in making progress in the former direction despite the election of Trump and a clear signal that the Continent will have to defend itself.

This argument suggests that Brexit would increase pressure for the break up of the United Kingdom. However, the opposite point is more persuasive. Sub-nationalism appears attractive only so long as it is against the backdrop of free trade & the movement of people across putative borders. The Nation State evolved over hundreds of years. The EU is still an experiment.

Bill Emmott says the likelihood that the British Parliament will approve of Theresa May’s half-baked deal with the EU on January 14 is slim. Ultimately the option available is between a no-deal exit, or no Brexit at all. As a result, the UK would be facing a “choice of two extremes,” with each of which most likely triggering a new referendum. Despite warnings that a hard Brexit could lead to steep price increases, shortages of food and medicine, fallout predicted by economists, Tory fundamentalists within May’s Conservative Party prefer leaving the EU with no deal to accepting the one negotiated by her. She delayed a vote on her unpopular deal last month, hoping that the March 29 deadline would put pressure on lawmakers to accept that her deal is better than a hard Brexit or a second referendum. In recent months more and more Britons are clamouring for another people’s vote, now that Parliament is “deadlocked.” Many say they had been misled in 2016, and are disaffected by the Brexit chaos. The author says diehard Brexiteers’ intransigience could lead to the breakup of the UK. English nationalists will reject May’s deal that fails to make a clean break from Brussels, because they want to free themselves from the EU straitjacket they so despise. Hence there is growing unease and anger in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland over what Brexit will mean to the 1707 Act of Union. At risk is the Good Friday Agreement that had brought peace to Northern Ireland. The Tory government relies on the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) of Northern Ireland to govern. The DUP supported Brexit, but leaving the EU was rejected by 56 % of voters in the British-governed province. And a main cause of their pro-EU support came from the hard-earned peace deal that saw stability restored to Northern Ireland after three decades of bloody political and sectarian violence.As far as the majority in Northern Ireland are concerned, a new situation would emerge after Brexit on the border with the Irish Republic, which remains in the EU. Closer integration, freer trade, freer movement of people, the elimination of border searches, patrols etc. end after Brexit. The Irish border is a critical issue and normality needs to be protected. There is fear that dark forces could take advantage of any return to a hard border of customs, searches and checks. While it makes sense to remain in a customs union and keep the status quo, this is completely unacceptable to the DUP, whose core tenet is that Ulster is as much a part of the UK as is Kent. Any Brexit deal that singles out Northern Ireland for special treatment in any way, is unacceptable. As the DUP controls May, she has little wriggle room when it comes to Northern Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement can not be changed, because it had been accepted by voters in a referendum on both sides of the Irish border. However it does allow for a vote on a united Ireland at some unspecified date when conditions are right. Given the economic uncertainty and social grievances Brexit is about to bring — that vote seems no longer unrealistic. July 2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the truce in the Irish war of independence, it may be an appropriate time for a vote on reunification. The author says, an “honest” Brexiteer should therefore “admit that leaving the EU on their terms may well lead to the dissolution of the UK. Irish reunification would almost certainly make another independence referendum in Scotland irresistible.” The Scots were urged to break away from the UK in September 2014. But they rejected the option. Since then, support for an IndyRef2 had waned. But now it seems to be gaining traction, because Scotland voted by 62 % to 38 to remain in June 2016. In June 2018, when asked about business leaders’ fears over Brexit, Boris Johnson infamously declared, “Fuck business.” The opportunist lied and made false promises in 2016 to further his career. Today he is angling to become May’s successor. The author is right, if Johnson “were honest, he would apply the same crude dismissiveness to Northern Ireland and Scotland. At least then it would be clear where the Brexiteers actually stand.”

I think that May's deal will pass through the Parliament. The number of Tory rebels will be lower than expected while the Labour rebels will be more numerous. Also, abstentions might decide the outcome of the vote and it will be interesting to see how many Labour MPs will abstain so that the deal can pass with a lower majority (and maybe some Tories could abstain, too, instead of voting against). I really can't see how May could put forward legislation for a second referendum without cross party support as half of her party would reject it. So far all we hear from Corbyn is that he doesn't want a second referendum and his position on EU membership is well known. Setting these problems aside, opinion polls are not sufficiently encouraging to take the gamble of a second referendum. Before the 2016 referendum most polls indicated a narrow victory for remain, just as they do now. So in these conditions it is not surprising that none of the major party leaders are supporting a new vote. I think the chances of a no deal scenario are increasing all the time as significant segments of the political parties see that as a potential advantage and supporting their agenda. The DUP has a stable electoral base and no rivals for the Protestant block vote. The Corbyn and Momentum faction in Labour want to see the defeat of Conservatives and a disastrous Brexit is the easiest way to achieve that. The Brexit Taliban in the Conservative Party need no rationale for supporting a no deal scenario because that's exactly what they want now (ironically, they never said it before the referendum). May boxed herself in a corner at every stage of the negotiations and couldn't escape the constraints she imposed on herself, so she is now moving towards a no deal in the same way. And let's not forget that a no deal scenario would be the most attractive to many leave voters as it would have the most immediate effect on stopping migration and potentially sending people home. The post Brexit situation of the UK remains to be seen. Westminster can block a second independence referendum in Scotland sine die, so we could end up with a Catalonia situation: Edinburgh asking for independence and London saying no. It is debatable whether there would be a majority in Northern Ireland for a separation from the UK and reunification with Ireland as there is no Catholic/nationalist majority yet and I wouldn't bet on even liberal, non-sectarian Protestants voting to be part of a United Ireland. What is more likely to happen is a heightened level of hostility and increased nationalism between England, Scotland and NI, potentially with some low level violence in Ulster. In short a dysfunctional country, to add to the dysfunctional political party system (two irretrievably divided big parties, with ascendance of far left and the far right over the centre within these parties).

If Deal is approved by Parliament, DUP will surely pull out and govt will fall. In fact, Jeremy should instigate a passing of the deal, if Labour wants an election. Parliament approving the Deal is a win-win for all.....May saves her face (Loses her PMship which anyhow will be inconsequential with 117 rebels amongst the tories, Jeremy gets an election......UK & EU go home happy).

As a solid remainer, I can see nothing good about leaving the EU. I am furiously angry at the sight of what looks to me like a deliberately muddled mess by both main parties, so that we end up with a no deal departure that noone, except the old white empire loyalists over their pink gins, really supports. As a pensioner, I can see no alternative to staying here and watching my beloved country sold down the river by a collection of Johnson, Davis, Gove rats. I have told my children and my grown up grandchildren to look for a better place to make their lives.

I hope your analysis proves right. If we have a second vote and there is a remain majority, then we have hope to continue as we are and focus on improving the country for all its constituent parts and their respective citizens.

If we vote to leave, then frankly disolution of the UK is the most sensible outcome, for all involved.

It is highly likely that the relationship between the countries that form the UK will become progressively worse, and the issues raised by this fight will never be forgotten. NI and Scotland will not lightly forgive England for for running roughshod over their Brexit concerns and undermining their way of life, limiting business opportunities and stripping their citizens of their rights as EU citizens. There isn't a big majority in support of Brexit in England and Wales and there is no majority for it in the other two countries. Even if, by some miracle Brexit were to go exceedingly well, and it will not, there is every reason to believe the legislators in the constituent countries will seek to ensure that Westminster never has the power to behave in this fashion ever again. England's supremacy is fast coming to an end within the UK.

Any thing but a solid vote to remain in the EU means serious upheaval on all fronts and for many, many, years.

It's hard for me to accept that the UK could be anything else than an advanced inspired leading country. And, I am a pro globalization Economist. So, maybe this British convulsion is a prototype of the way to go for many other nations. Maybe the UK is leading now too. Or, is it a sort of late Roman empire self-demolition? Don't know what to think.

I live in Brexit Britain. I can assure you it is an un-planned, un-thought through shambles. Your impression of Britain as a leading country is, perhaps, why it is taking many people, including the Brexiteers, so long to realise the absolute chaos they plan to unleash on the country. A 'no deal' Brexit will place the country in need of outside assistance in short order, and the population will suffer considerably. The foundation of the union of nations that comprise the UK will be shaken to the breaking point. The UK has no empire so it isn't at all like your second analogy, either.

It is more a perfect storm and a confluence of factors that pose an existential problem now for the UK. First, a failure to democratise and update the Parliamentary system. For example, parachuting parliamentary candidates into areas where they have no connection, but who win the local election because they are in the right party. Then there is austerity as government policy with no end in sight; poor job prospects yet continued immigration; bad leadership and poor civic education; laziness and a lack of interest in politics by the general public; and a tendency to blame everything on foreigners and the EU while playing the victim, not to mention the oligarchs press barons briefing for years against the EU out of perverse self-interest.

It is quite hard for me to believe you are a trained economist, yet fail to see how leaving a huge trading block, not to mention the cultural, political and even familial links that it holds, will somehow be in this country's interest and even make it a trailblazer. When our interests diverge from the EU's and we become competitors, they will treat us accordingly. They are a behemoth together. Britain is just off shore and of a much smaller size, and she is hostile to the EU. What, in your trained economist's opinion, do you think might be the outcome?

Pro-Democracy demagogues are always promoting "the people's voice & choice". It should apply to Irish people. They should unite and break away from UK if they want to remain in EU. Likewise for Scotland. If Ireland & Scotland choose to be independent from UK, they should be encouraged to do so by people who advocate democracy.

How can you pose the question that even EU would be a race to the bottom? It is bigger and stronger as it faces bigger external threats ie Russian military threats and commercial China. Hence it is most likely prefer remaining United. I am just guessing!

PK, my comment was related to the political situation rather than the financial one. In March 2019, we have the Brexit Deadline (expectation: No Deal) and the EU Parliamentary elections (more to the right, and less of the established parties, more uncertainties and more divisions in the EU along the lines: North vs South - East vs West - extreme right political parties vs extreme left, etc... The EU cannot survive in its current form, it is and has been on a life support machine for a while now.

I know in this historical moment , many factors cultural, historical, feelings of the heart etc. come into play. As an outsider N.American, we can't understand these complex forces. Anyway, we wish the best of everything to all in the new year. Thanks ffor the explanation!

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