Win Probability

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The win probability graph is intended to be a measure of a team's chance of winning the game after every play of the game, based on the line, current score, and current field position. For a detailed explanation, see Neil's writeup on the Win Probability Model

Scoring plays are highlighted in green and accepted penalties are highlighted in gray, while changes of possession are denoted by a bold line. Expected points before and after are relative to the team possessing the ball at the start of the play (though kickoffs are assumed to be in possession of the receiving team).