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This is Part 4 in a series of analysis reports on the Philippine market.

Cebu Pacific Air has begun evaluating new-generation widebody aircraft with the objective of launching flights to the west coast of the US. The Philippine LCC is studying the A350, 787 and A330neo and plans to issue a formal tender to Airbus and Boeing in 3Q2017.

Cebu Pacific launched its long haul operation in 2013, with A330-300 services to Dubai. It now operates five long haul routes to the Middle East and Australia and also uses its A330 fleet on several short haul routes.

The airline is slated to take its eighth and final A330-300 in 1H2017, completing the first phase of its widebody strategy. Phase two of Cebu Pacific’s long haul strategy has always been to transition to a new longer-range widebody type and launch flights to California, which has the largest Filipino community not already served by Cebu Pacific. With new aircraft technology now available, and rival Philippine Airlines (PAL) pursuing rapid expansion in the US market, it is time for Cebu Pacific to strategically make its move.

Turkey's fifth largest airline by seat capacity, LCC Onur Air, has thrown its operation into reverse. After growing scheduled seat numbers at an average rate of 11% pa for four years, including growth at around 20% for most of 2016, it will cut capacity by 20% this winter.

A series of geopolitical events has weighed heavily on demand for air travel in Turkey, particularly in international travel. Weak trading conditions have also prompted the market leaders – national airline Turkish Airlines and LCC Pegasus – to halt their own rapid growth. Onur Air is bigger in the domestic market than it is in the international market, but much of its 2016 expansion was driven by international growth, particularly to Germany.

Onur's network faces strong competition on almost every route, particularly on international routes, and this has clearly posed a severe challenge in the face of falling demand.