How Sandra Fluke could hand a safe Dem House seat to the GOP

It sounds almost too good to be true, but it is plausible. The oh-so-smug contraception-devouring Georgetown Law graduate is contemplating a run for the Congressional seat being vacated by Henry Waxman. John Fund outlines a scenario in National Review by which it is possible that this decision could lead to a GOP nominee capturing the vote.

Up to a dozen candidates will run in the non-partisan June primary, in which the top two finishers, regardless of party, then advance to a November runoff. Two possible surprising outcomes: Feminist icon Sandra Fluke going to Congress or the district electing a small-business-owner Republican-turned-independent. (snip)

Even though several elected Democrats are lining up to run, name ID in the expensive L.A. market is everything and Fluke trumps almost all of her potential challengers in that category.

What worries some liberal strategists is this: Fluke rides her fame and her fundraising advantage with feminists into one of the two spots in the November runoff for the seat. The other slot is taken by Bill Bloomfield, a businessman who spent millions of his own money and held Henry Waxman to an eight-point victory in 2012 - a banner Democratic year in California. While both candidates would be newcomers, Bloomfield would have the money and name ID to be competitive.

Bloomfield told the Los Angeles Times last night that he is "leaning towards running" again and is taking a poll to gauge his chances. The district is winnable for an independent like Bloomfield, given that 28 percent of its voters are registered Republican and another 28 percent are independent or registered with minor parties.

Bloomfield would have to get nearly all of the independents for this scenario to work out. But if Democrat turnout is depressed maybe that is possible. It is far from a certainty, but given the prospect of a conservative wave election, not completely implausible. Call the Irony Police.

It sounds almost too good to be true, but it is plausible. The oh-so-smug contraception-devouring Georgetown Law graduate is contemplating a run for the Congressional seat being vacated by Henry Waxman. John Fund outlines a scenario in National Review by which it is possible that this decision could lead to a GOP nominee capturing the vote.

Up to a dozen candidates will run in the non-partisan June primary, in which the top two finishers, regardless of party, then advance to a November runoff. Two possible surprising outcomes: Feminist icon Sandra Fluke going to Congress or the district electing a small-business-owner Republican-turned-independent. (snip)

Even though several elected Democrats are lining up to run, name ID in the expensive L.A. market is everything and Fluke trumps almost all of her potential challengers in that category.

What worries some liberal strategists is this: Fluke rides her fame and her fundraising advantage with feminists into one of the two spots in the November runoff for the seat. The other slot is taken by Bill Bloomfield, a businessman who spent millions of his own money and held Henry Waxman to an eight-point victory in 2012 - a banner Democratic year in California. While both candidates would be newcomers, Bloomfield would have the money and name ID to be competitive.

Bloomfield told the Los Angeles Times last night that he is "leaning towards running" again and is taking a poll to gauge his chances. The district is winnable for an independent like Bloomfield, given that 28 percent of its voters are registered Republican and another 28 percent are independent or registered with minor parties.

Bloomfield would have to get nearly all of the independents for this scenario to work out. But if Democrat turnout is depressed maybe that is possible. It is far from a certainty, but given the prospect of a conservative wave election, not completely implausible. Call the Irony Police.