We
wouldn’t do this team justice unless we took a close look at some of the
players available, at key positions, via free agency. Let’s start with catcher
–

C Jonathan Lucroy.
– Lacory is currently playing above his early April struggles. Still,
his worth will be judged vs. Travis d’Arnaud on their seasonal stats.

Through 6-5:

Lucroy
– 159-AB, .258/.302/.377/679, 3-HR, 13-RBI

D’Arnaud
– 86-AB, .233/.299/.465/764, 5-HR, 16-AB

Samuel
Hale of WFAA wrote recently that Lacroy ‘used to be an elite frame, but that
time has past. D’Arnaud has never seen considered a Picasso in this art either.
Even worse is his ability to throw out runners at second base and we all know
he simply can’t stay healthy.

2017
cost: Lucroy: $5.25/mil

Recommendation:
Lucroy is three years older than d’Arnaud and will play 2018 as a 32-year old…
which is fine, but I can’t see offering him more than a three-year deal. If he
agrees, I could go into the $8-10mil/yr range, but no higher than three years
unless I am highly pushed. There really is no other decent catcher available
via free agency so if you don’t sign Lucroy, it’s d’Arnaud or someone via a
trade.

Trade candidates:

We need to approach this is a different direction.
Below are the list of six major league catchers that currently are having a
decent season, meaning, they are not going to be replaced next year by some kid
in the pipeline. I’ll break out some contract information, followed by any
prospects on their respective team (analysis supplied by John Sickels) that might be blocked by the major
league player. All of this is being done to hopefully find someone we could go
after in the off-season:

Aramis Garcia, C, Grade
C+: Age 23, second round pick in 2014 from Florida International; hit
.257/.323/.340 with two homers, 14 walks, 42 strikeouts in 144 at-bats in
High-A, playing time limited by facial fracture suffered in collision; catching
skills have improved considerably, threw out 42% of runners and sharpened his
receiving; bat went backwards however; hit 15 homers in Low-A in ’15 but didn’t
show the same pop in High-A and had issues with contact; lost season with the
injury and deserves more opportunities. ETA 2019.

2018 option: None

J.T.
Realmuto – Miami – .289/.360/.428/.788 – pre-arbitration, under team
control through 2020 – No prospect being blocked.

2018 option: None

Matt Weiters – Washington
– .273/.337/.418/.755 – team option 2018 –

Pedro Severino, C, Grade
C+: Age 23, from the Dominican Republic, hit .271/.316/.337 with two homers, 19
walks, 45 strikeouts in 291 at-bats in Triple-A; hit .321/.441/.607 in 28
at-bats in the majors; that’s a small-sample fluke; in a larger sample he’s a .250
hitter without much power, though he is young enough that may improve
eventually; superior defensive catcher with strong
throwing arm and receiving skills; will last for years as a reserve and
may eventually hit enough to get beyond that. ETA
2017.

2018 option: doesn’t look like anything more than a possible
replacement to Rene
Rivera.

Keibert Ruiz, C, Grade B-: Age 18, signed out of Venezuela in 2014
for just $140,000; outstanding debut hitting .374/.412/.527 with 15 walks, 27
strikeouts in 222 at-bats between Arizona Rookie League and Pioneer League;
threw out just 20% of runners and arm is just so-so but defense is otherwise
extremely good, very reliable and mobile, strong leadership ability;
switch-hitter with doubles power and good contact ability; watch this one
closely. ETA 2020.

Austin Barnes, C-INF, Grade B-: Age 27; older prospect but has a
consistent track record of success; hit .295/.380/.443 in Triple-A with 18
steals. 43 walks, 53 strikeouts in 336 at-bats; hit .156/.270/.188 in 32 MLB
at-bats; good plate discipline with gap power; very effective baserunner
despite average speed; solid defender who is also
competent at second base and third base; versatility and solid hitting ability
give him value even if upside projection is limited by age.ETA 2017.

2018 option: This could be a good one to
go after. Barnes is ready. As of 6-7, he has 67 at-bats with the Dodgers,
backing up Grandal, hitting .269/.372/.493/865, 2-HR, 8-RBI. Will never be a
home run hitter. I would do what I could to pry him away from the Bums and, at
least, make him a better backup to d’Arnaud than Rivera.

Chase Vallot, C, Grade
B-/C+: Age 20, compensation round pick in 2014; hit .246/.367/.463 with 13
homers, 39 walks, 118 strikeouts in 272 at-bats in Low-A; 60-grade raw power
and plenty of bat speed; slash line was much better than it looks on the
surface with wRC+ of 140; but has significant problems with contact; he makes
an effort to work the count and can take a walk but there’s simply a lot of
swing/miss here; defense remains troublesome, threw out 33% of runners but with
very high passed ball and error rates; high ceiling power bat but a long way
off. ETA: 2021.

Meibrys Viloria, C, Grade
C+: Age 19, hit .376/.436/.606 with 28 doubles, 20 walks, 36 strikeouts in 226
at-bats in Pioneer League; signed out of Colombia in 2013; left-handed batter
with good pure hitting skills; contact approach with power to the gaps from
5-11, 175 pound frame; lacks running speed but has good defensive tools, though
needs polish to cut down on mistakes; sleeper prospect to watch as he
transitions to full-season ball in 2017. ETA: 2021.

Cam Gallagher, C, Grade C:
Age 23, second round pick in 2011; bat has never really developed but defense
has turned out very well; added to 40-man roster this past weekend; hit
.259/.348/.359 in Double-A but threw out 50% of runners and maintains very low
passed ball and error rates; glove will get him to the majors; at one time his
bat was well-regarded and perhaps it can still come around someday. ETA; 2017.

2018 option – Only Gallagher offers one and, like LAD’s Barnes,
only as a backup.

Carson Kelly, C, Grade
B/B+: Age 22, second round pick in 2012; hit .289/.343/.395 with six homers, 25
walks, 63 strikeouts in 329 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A; superior defensive catcher threw out 31% of
runners but with excellent passed ball and error rates plus good comments on
backstop intangibles; makes contact but line drive swing cuts off natural power
in 6-2, 220 frame; may be a late-bloomer with the
bat. Glove will keep him in the majors for years and the hitting could
still end up being very good. Industry enthusiasm
for his hitting has increased over the winter and in this case I think the
industry is correct. ETA 2017.

2018 option – I might have found our guy here! No one is going
to move Molina off the Cards plate and Kelly remains stuck in AAA, hitting
.313. A ‘superior defensive catcher’ hitting .313.

So, here’s my plan.

1.I’m going to
make Lucroy my first objective here.

2.If I can’t
secure Lucroy, I’m going to go all out to secure a trade with the Cards for
Kelly. I could go a number of ways including offering them d’Arnaud plus a
mid-level prospect. If not, I would go one for one for someone like Gavin Cecchini or Brandon
Nimmo.

3.If the Cards
pass, I would try to put together a smaller deal for the Dodgers’ Barnes. I
would keep d’Arnaud and pray that he comes back next year both healthy but
motivated as well

4.Past that, it’s
stay with d’Arnaud and Rivera in 2018. Let’s face it… there just isn’t that much
catcher talent in baseball anymore, no less finding two great ones in the same
organization.

5.Long term…
finish this year with the worst record in baseball and draft Seth Beer.

I don't think your gonna get Lucroy for anything under $15 mil a year. I would offer that much even though so far he isn't hitting that well this year. He is my number 1 target.

Target 1A would be Kelly or Realmuto. Kelly we would have to offer more than either Nimo or Cecchini. I don't even believe if you offered both of them that the Cards would take it. You might have to throw in a Molina or Conlon in that deal.

If the Marlins are really open to trading him, you would have to back up the truck filled with prospects to get him. I would prefer him over all 3 but I wouldn't want to pay the price to get him.

I wouldn't be giving a 32 year old catcher (Lucroy) a three year deal. It'd kill me to watch TC "try to get him going" over the last two years of his contract while Nido rots on the bench or at AAA. You're right, there isn't much catching talent around the league, and unless you can get Kelly (and then only if you believe he can do better than 31% throwing out runners at the big league level) I'd bite the bullet here and try to get Nido a look as soon as possible. That's not a perfect answer on a "win now" team (though we could be kidding ourselves there anyway) but given how few good options there are league-wide, and given his hitting over the past two seasons, and his defensive reputation and arm, he's gotta be a top 10 catching prospect in baseball. If you're really done with TdA (I'm agnostic on that) then either re-sign Rivera or some other smart, leader-like backup catcher who can play D and handle a staff, and get him up here to start his career and see how it goes.

Possibly, for guys not currently on the team or in the minors, like Giolito, in each article, you can add a brief statement on what you propose the Mets trade to get him from your original article on the subject.

So if someone missed one of these incremental articles, they'd get your logic on the previous article guys.

Mack great job as always...keep up the good work as it looks good to me. To me it's either Kelly or just go with TDA and Rivera another year while waiting for Nido or a better option. I hate paying anyone over 30 multi million's as there's way to much downside to consider. I'd rather spend on the bullpen and a CFer if a very good one is available in trade. Trea Turner anyone? LOL