Can MM Lee still swing the votes?

With the coming election tipped to swing against his governing
party, the founding leader, Lee Kuan Yew, who is 87,
has signalled his intention to continue in office.

Speaking with a slight slur and looking his age, Lee posted his
message in a low-key video that answered a burning question in
almost every Singaporean's mind — and a few
foreigners, as well.

"I'm happy to be still representing Tanjong Pagar," Lee said,
referring to the constituency that he first won 56 years ago.

It was posted inconspicuously among other candidates' messages
on the People's Action Party (PAP) website without an accompanying
story.

The pro-government press gave it scant prominence, and many
Singaporeans first read about it in a Yahoo! news
report.

This means that if re-elected — as he will likely be — Lee will
retain his record as one of the world's longest surviving leaders,
although as an "adviser" to the Cabinet.

Lately, the elderly politician has stayed
out of the public limelight, speaking less and less, raising
speculation that he may be preparing to step down.

The low-key treatment was probably by design.

"I think they want to project the retention of the 87-year-old
Lee as a non-story at a time when other top leaders are retired,"
said a long-time PAP watcher.

Fading relevance

At any rate, it seems that the importance of whether Lee stays
or goes has become less important, overtaken by Singapore's
fast-changing politics.

The electorate is changing; so is the PAP itself, so Lee —
because of his health and age — is no longer very important to many
people.

The election (Polling Day: 7 May) is shaping up to be one of the
hottest in decades that threatens to shake up the powerful PAP that
Lee co-founded.

A gradual build-up of public unhappiness is contributing to
this.

Years of excessive intake of foreigners that threatened
white-collar jobs and depressed salaries of middle-class
Singaporeans — as well as fuelled high inflation — are creating
strong resentment in the republic.

Singaporeans are worried about the future of their children and
their country.

The PAP is not facing defeat, not in this election anyway, far
from it. It will undoubtedly retain its mandate to govern for
another five years.

The party probably has enough momentum of past — even brilliant
— successes to let it win this election, especially with Lee
around. The next one, well, that's another story.

With nine days of campaigning from noon of nomination day (27
April), people are gearing for an erosion of popular support for
the government.

In 2006, the PAP won 66.6 percent popular votes and 82 out of 84
seats. The total votes are almost certain to drop (some say it's
possible to dip below 60 percent).

But under Singapore's "first-past-the post" system, it will be
much harder to win many more seats.

More worrying for 59-year-old Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is
the prospect of losing the hearts and minds of youths, who are less
accepting of his policies.

Some analysts believe that this is one of the reasons why his
father, MM Lee, wants to stay on despite his health.

"He wants to ensure the PAP, with a large crop of new,
inexperienced candidates, does not falter during its crucial
self-renewal," a grassroots leader told me.

Still appreciated

That he intends to serve an 11th term in Parliament is welcomed
by a section of the population, especially the elderly, that feels
indebted for his role in building today's Singa­pore.

"The older voters may be happy and feel a strong sense of
comfort that he's still there," said a political think-tank
researcher.

One admirer wrote: "MM Lee, I salute you for what you and your
team had done for Singapore. Without doubt, the PAP team put nation
before self."

Heart Sense said: "Dear Mr Lee, you are a great man of
our nation and many Singaporeans have gained their success and
prosperity from your earlier policies."

Both admirers, however, said they felt that his successors were
generally less capable and as a result quality of life had
declined.

The younger generation, which has no first-hand knowledge of
Lee's past achievements, blames him for much of today's woes and
wants him to retire.

Immediately after Lee announced he would contest, a popular
website polled readers for their views.

Temasek Review said that 499 out
of 574 respondents — or 78 per cent — opposed his decision.

Two main reasons given for wanting him to quit are, firstly, to
let the younger leaders to take over, and, secondly, they don't
like his mega-high salary.

The other 16 per cent say he should continue.

One was Angie, who penned: "I want Mr Lee to continue
to be the MP and stay as long as he can. Without him, we will never
be able to enjoy what we have today."

Since his wife's death, Lee seemed more conscious of his own
fallibility.

Asked by an American journalist, "So, when is the last leaf
falling," Lee replied: "I can feel the gradual decline of energy
and vitality. And I mean, generally, every year when you know you
are not on the same level as last year. But that's life."

For this election, knowing his past, he is likely to campaign
hard for his son's — and PAP's — victory, his health
permitting.

Given his stature, he will likely be able to pull in a number of
votes from Singapore's conservatives who fear sudden changes.

But his ageing body and mind will weaken his role in the next
five years, if it lasts.

A former Reuters correspondent and newspaper editor,
the writer is now a freelance columnist writing on general
trends in Singapore. This post first appeared on his blog, www.littlespeck.com, on 9 April
2011.