Pick of painful pair

Denis Napthine
knows about the politics of fracking. Some of the most promising country for unconventional gas in Victoria is in his electorate in the state’s west.

That means that the Victorian Premier’s fierce “never, ever" refusal to accept the recommendations of the Reith report should signal loud and clear that his “hasten slowly" approach is more accurately about standing still. Why would a conservative politician confronted with predictions of unpopular rising prices for consumers and factory closures choose this course?

Peter Reith
’s report in fact offers little direct incentive to a government considering how it might sell something as unpopular as fracking. It warns of a price spike in 2017 and then says it will take at least five years to bring on new supply.

Why, strategists ask, would you wear the pain without being able to assure voters it is making any difference. There are other policies that could be pursued to help ensure development benefits accrue locally but little is guaranteed. And a 20 per cent rise in gas prices and more complaining from manufacturers about high costs might or might not be enough to swing city votes.

Contrast that with the situation in a town such as Sale, in the heart of Nationals leader
Peter Ryan
’s electorate, where 15,000 voters drink straight from bores to an underground aquifer. For a government which is running for re-election already deprived of its own clear majority, every vote counts.

This explains former premier
Jeff Kennett
’s assessment that dry economics is not always politically palatable. He also rightly criticises the panel’s composition and approach as excluding important voices that pragmatic politics would require are heard.

There is little doubt that some in the Liberal Party are pushing hard for development. But for now they are in the minority. The Premier has made his choice: if the price of inaction is to have to deal with the spiralling gas prices during his second term, that is better than not getting one.