The Global Repercussions of India-Pakistan Detente

Ever since the 1947 fissure between Pakistan and India, the relationship
between these two states, which hinges on the contested border region
of Kashmir, has been one of the world's most contentious. It is also
quickly becoming one of the world's most important. South Asia has just overcome the Middle East as
world's most dangerous region for terrorism, as global groups like
al-Qaeda enmesh with regionally oriented groups such as the Taliban and
Kashmiri insurgents. Pakistan's support of insurgent groups, meant to
counter India, causes many Pakistani officials to turn a blind eye to
related insurgencies ravaging Afghanistan and the international forces
there. The Kashmir region also shares a contested border with China,
meaning that India and Pakistan's intense border militarization and
occasional skirmishes threaten to suck China into the conflict. The flow of
goods and energy across the Pakistan-India border, which since the days
of the Silk Road has been a global point of commerce, is constantly
threatened by military and diplomatic stand-offs. And as President Obama
seeks to end the nuclear threat by
reducing the number of weapons worldwide and securing loose nuclear
material, two of the most armed and least secure nuclear powers have
been conspicuously absent from any disarmament agreements: India and
Pakistan. Iran's nuclear program, which threatens the stability of the
Middle East and the security of Israel, is likely at least somewhat
rooted in Tehran's desire for a deterrent from Pakistani nukes.

Fortunately,
the tense Pakistan-India relationship shows some signs of detente. When
Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh of India and Yousuf Raza Gilani of
Pakistan met on Thursday for a regional summit in Bhutan, few were optimistic that
the meeting would yield any progress between the two historical
enemies. But Pakistan surprised the world by announcing it would remove 100,000 troops from
the Kashmir border, an incredible sign of faith in easing the Kashmir
dispute at the center of India-Pakistan tension. The move comes as the
Pakistani military considers finally assaulting North Waziristan, a region
along the Afghan border that has been pounded by U.S. drone strikes
targeting the insurgents and terrorists based there. Such an attack
would be a gift to the international mission in Afghanistan, where U.S.
forces struggle to secure the country against Waziristan-based attacks.
Singh and Gilani also pledged to set a date for more advanced
peace talks.

President Obama can take some credit for his efforts
to bridge the India-Pakistan divide. Obama's summit with Singh in December
yielded the prime minister's announcement that he would offer
Pakistan conditional talks on Kashmir. Pakistan, for its part, has long
hesitated to attack the insurgents along its Afghan border because it
fears that, should the U.S. suddenly abandon its interest in the region
as it did after the 1988 Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan
would need those insurgents to project influence into Afghanistan.
Pakistan also feared that it might not be able to defend against
insurgencies like the Taliban on its own and so avoided needlessly
turning them into enemies. President Obama, having apparently convinced
Pakistan that U.S. forces would remain in Afghanistan until the country
has been stabilized, may have made the risk of assaulting North
Waziristan worthwhile. To be sure, none of this would be possible
without the involvement of key Pakistani officials, particularly Army
chief General Ashfaq Kayani, who is beloved in Washington for
his willingness to work with the U.S. and rid the military of its more
extremists elements.

While the Kashmir dispute could take years
to fully resolve, the important thing for regional well-being is that
India and Pakistan scale down their cold war over the territory. But
real, enduring peace will be elusive as long as Pakistan still endures
internal turmoil. The country's recent energy crisis highlights
its struggle for good governance and the deep instability that brings. A
small but alarmingly violent extremist movement still holds the entire country
back from developing a strong, peaceful civil society. As long as
Afghanistan remains violent, the insurgents who destabilize Pakistan
will persist along the porous Afghan border. While Pakistan's detente
with India promises to bring greater stability throughout and beyond
South Asia, sustained progress cannot be certain until peace comes to
Afghanistan and Pakistan. That could explain why troops from 38
different nations are currently fighting in Afghanistan. Peace in South
Asia, for which the Pakistan-India dispute in Kashmir remains central,
is truly a global concern.