I found this site during Ivan and quickly became hooked ... many thanks to all of you for sharing your knowledge and time!

I'm in Dixie County, on the West Coast near the mouth of the Suwannee River. Our county is very small (population and budget wise) and although everyone here works very hard and does their best, it sometimes seems harder to get local information here than in the bigger cities. (media, website, etc.)

It looks like the storm is projected to pass close to here. Can someone give an opinion about what we can expect? I promise not to hold you to it ...

It's too early to say for sure, because there are several of us who wonder if it won't be further south than what the NHC is calling for.
But, you should always go by their judgement first and they say it will be right near Cedar Key with winds of 50 mph. Some trees will be blown down and there will be some power outages.

Anyone still up from Melbourne. My son lives on Dairy Road with the ex-wife. Would really like to know what's going on. I'm watching the news and it's not pretty.

I think you will be safe in either location. I'm in Savannah, GA but don't expect must here that we haven't seen before during a thunderstorm. I don't know how old your kids are -- but perhaps having the entire family together at the hospital at Gainesville (actually I spent the night there once myself with a snakebite) would be a good choice. The winds will be minimal there.

The metal roof on this building is making a hell of a noise. Our generator still hasn't cranked up, but it is loud out there! I hate these storms. It's going to get alot worse than this, I know. I hate the noises these storms make.

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Why does everyone want to compare TV mets against NHC, and trash NHC? They complement each other. TV mets are doing a lot of now-casting and time filling; their story is sometimes about as fickle as the wind. NHC only issues once every 2-6 hours. Their roles are supposed to complement each other. Any TV met that trashes NHC on air doesn't deserve to be there.

None of the mets I've seen have trashed the NHC. Just because they say they're not entirely sure that the NHC track will verify doesn't mean they're trashing them. Disagreeing is not the same as trashing. And...before anyone says anything, all the mets I've seen have also said to listen to officials/NHC and evacuate/prepare when asked. Because the NHC only adjusts their track every 6 hours, that does leave a lot of room for error, especially after landfall when you're dealing with moment to moment changes that make a huge difference in how areas are affected. The fact that it's staying west longer than the NHC expected makes an enormous difference in where it ultimately goes. The local mets are able to react to those things much more quickly than the NHC. For instance, the NHC won't adjust their track until 5am, when it will already be more than halfway across the state.

This local met supposed trash talkin is like dejavu! I think it was Francis that the local met comparisons took place. Imo they have to do 24hr coverage with the radar right in front of them and the viewers and if it aint goin right yet then they cant say see the north turn, something like that im sure you get my drift.

Scott I must compliment you on your posts they are very informative, however I am sometimes dense with what I am reading!! My question is...do you think this will make it out into the GOM? From what I read in your post and my limited knowledge of what town is where, I assuming that it will make it close to the west coast and then start its turn never entering the GOM, is that correct?
Sorry for the stupid question but I just wanted to make sure I understood what you were getting at!
To all who are going through this "nightmare" God bless you and thoughts and prayers are extended to you and yours.

We're on the edge of cat 1 winds now in Melbourne. So far very Frances-like but it could get worse if landfall does make her turn further north. The good news is, my power isn't even flickering this time. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Quote:
None of the mets I've seen have trashed the NHC. Just because they say they're not entirely sure that the NHC track will verify doesn't mean they're trashing them. Disagreeing is not the same as trashing. And...before anyone says anything, all the mets I've seen have also said to listen to officials/NHC and evacuate/prepare when asked. Because the NHC only adjusts their track every 6 hours, that does leave a lot of room for error, especially after landfall when you're dealing with moment to moment changes that make a huge difference in how areas are affected. The fact that it's staying west longer than the NHC expected makes an enormous difference in where it ultimately goes. The local mets are able to react to those things much more quickly than the NHC. For instance, the NHC won't adjust their track until 5am, when it will already be more than halfway across the state.

Good point. Yes, you're right, they don't trash NHC, but I've seen one or two come close -- they don't dare bite the hand that feeds them.

--------------------"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

The beginning of the effects on Polk County are about to hit us in about 30-45 minutes. Max Mayfield just said that we are going to see the beginnings of the worst between 3-6am.
Denis Phillips is expecting the track to shift further south...which is even worse for us.
So if you're not prepared right now, get ready. I just heard a large "BOOM" and I don't know what the heck it was, but ABC News reporter in Bartow just talked about a large explosion---more than likely a transformer. If that's what I heard, ...well, I'm ten miles from Bartow.
Hang on to your hats, folks. Get your flashlights ready, and you may want to put fresh batteries in a radio because if the power goes off there are many radio stations that broadcasting simultaneously with the various stations---and you're not going to want to go through this without a reassuring voice from somewhere.
Other things: IF you lose power, unplug your appliances that you aren't using (if you don't have a generator) such as your stereo system, washers and dryers, stove, computers, etc. If you have the old-fashioned cord phones, find them and plug them in because even if we lose power, we may not lose phone service.
Just trying to pass on information as they give it out on the news stations.
Ok, a tree branch just hit the side window of my house. Oh yeah, if you have a fireplace, close the flue. Don't want torrential rains coming in from the chimney.
I am running on pure adrenaline right now and when this is all said and done I think I'll be sleeping for a week.

-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

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