Sunday, December 30, 2012

Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013: Part II

This is the second of a 4 part look at the Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for the Class of 2013, in which we attempt to predict the order the candidates will finish. Click here to read Part I.

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

Edgar
Martinez

AB

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS+

WAR

Martinez

7213

1219

2247

514

309

1261

.312

.418

.515

147

64.4

Of
players with a minimum of 8,000 plate appearances, here is the list of those
who have a career batting average over .300, an on base percentage above .400,
and a slugging percentage over .500:

Ed
Delahanty

Ted
Williams

Tris
Speaker

Stan
Musial

Ty
Cobb

Edgar
Martinez

Harry
Heilmann

Larry
Walker

Babe
Ruth

Frank
Thomas

Rogers
Hornsby

Manny
Ramirez

Lou
Gehrig

Chipper
Jones

Jimmie
Foxx

Todd
Helton

Mel
Ott

Albert
Pujols

The
list is presented in the order in which the players retired, with those players
active at the end. Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker are the first new members of
the club since Stan Musial retired in 1960. Needless to say, the first 11
players on the list are in the Hall of Fame.

With
1,283 career walks and only 1,202 strikeouts, Martinez is one of the rare 300
club members with more walks than strikeouts. The complete list is as follows:

Babe
Ruth

Carl
Yastrzemski

Rogers
Hornsby

Darrell
Evans

Lou
Gehrig

George
Brett

Jimmie
Foxx

Edgar
Martinez

Mel
Ott

Rafael
Palmeiro

Ted
Williams

Barry
Bonds

Stan
Musial

Frank
Thomas

Yogi
Berra

Gary
Sheffield

Mickey
Mantle

Chipper
Jones

Al
Kaline

Todd
Helton

Hank
Aaron

Albert
Pujols

A
7-time All-Star, Martinez did not become a full-time player until he was 27
years old. A few more years at the beginning of his career and he would have
numbers that would guarantee election. He is also hindered by the fact he spent
much of his career as a designated hitter, a position which the Hall of Fame
voters do not value.

Fred
McGriff

McGriff
never hit 50 home runs in a season. He never hit 40 home runs in a season. In
1992, McGriff led the National League with 35 homers, the lowest total to lead the
National League in a non-strike season since Ralph Kiner hit 23 in 1946.
Although his home run numbers may look pedestrian now after the “Juiced Ball
Era,” McGriff was one of the top power hitters of his time, finishing in the
top 10 among all Major Leaguers in homers 7 consecutive seasons. How rare is
that? Here’s the list:

Number of times

Player

Years

16

Babe Ruth

1918-33

14

Lou Gehrig

1925-38

12

Jimmie Foxx

1929-40

9

Hank Aaron

1965-73

9

Eddie Mathews

1952-60

9

Mel Ott

1931-39

9

Mike Schmidt

1979-87

8

Gavvy Cravath

1912-19

8

Joe DiMaggio

1936-42, 46

8

Ralph Kiner

1946-53

8

Mickey Mantle

1954-61

7

Napoleon Lajoie

1897-1903

7

Fred McGriff

1988-94

7

Frank Robinson

1956-62

7

Harry Stovey

1880-86

7

Cy Williams

1918-24

7

Ken Williams

1921-27

The
list above contains twelve Hall of Famers, 4 non-Hall of Famers born before
Babe Ruth, and Fred McGriff. McGriff was the last player to join this group and
the first since Mike Schmidt, who in turn was the first since Hank Aaron. Not
only was McGriff one of the top power hitters of his generation, he was a model
of consistency. Fifteen times he hit twenty or more home runs, to join this
illustrious group:

Seasons

Player

20

Hank Aaron

19

Barry Bonds

17

Willie Mays

17

Frank Robinson

16

Babe Ruth

16

Ted Williams

16

Jim Thome

16

Reggie Jackson

16

Eddie Murray

15

Fred McGriff

15

Mel Ott

15

Willie Stargell

15

Dave Winfield

15

Ken Griffey, Jr.

15

Alex Rodriguez

McGriff
was a feared part of any lineup he was in, but never more so than when he was
traded to Atlanta. In 1993, McGriff was traded from San Diego to Atlanta and
his second half tear helped the Braves hold off San Francisco (who finished
103-59) to win the National League West. That season with the Braves he batted
.310 with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs and led them to a 51-19 record after his
arrival. In the National League Championship Series against Philadelphia,
McGriff batted .435 with 4 RBIs but the Braves lost in 6 games. In 1994,
McGriff batted .310 with 34 home runs before the season was called because of
the player strike. McGriff led Atlanta to the next two World Series, winning
one title in 1995 against Cleveland. In 50 career postseason games, McGriff
batted .303 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs.

Unfortunately,
McGriff retired with 493 home runs. The strike quite possibly cost him the 7
home runs needed to reach 500. Would that have been enough to get him inducted
into Cooperstown? Maybe not. But it would have given him a stronger case. The
home run bonanza in the late 1990s and early 2000s make it hard to believe
McGriff was a great power hitter. McGriff’s vote total will rise slightly this
year, but he likely won’t break the 25% mark.

Larry
Walker

As
mentioned above in the discussion on Edgar Martinez, Walker is 1 of 18 players
in history to have a career batting average over .300, an on base percentage
over .400, and a slugging percentage over .500. The 1997 National League Most
Valuable Player, Walker won 3 batting titles and 7 Gold Glove Awards, while
being named to 5 All-Star teams. His career WAR of 69.7 ranks 81st
all-time and 52nd among position players. He has the 13th
highest slugging percentage in history.[i]
But…and it is a very large but…he played in Colorado. It doesn’t matter that
while playing for Montreal in the strike-shortened 1994 season, Walker batted
.322 with 44 doubles and 86 RBIs in only 103 games. Many voters believe
Walker’s career was enhanced in the thin mountain air. His career OPS+,
designed to adjust for park and league effects, is 141, tied for 69th
all-time, and well ahead of Rafael Palmeiro (below, 132), Dave Winfield (130),
Eddie Murray (129), and Sammy Sosa (128). Nonetheless, he didn’t reach any
magic numbers, his career was short by Hall standards, and he didn’t win any
World Series rings (despite hitting .357 against the Red Sox in the 2004 World
Series).

Sammy
Sosa

The
players with multiple 50+ homer seasons:

Number of Seasons

Player

4

Babe Ruth

4

Mark McGwire

4

Sammy Sosa

3

Alex Rodriguez

2

Jimmie Foxx

2

Ken Griffey, Jr.

2

Ralph Kiner

2

Mickey Mantle

2

Willie Mays

The
players who have hit 60 or more home runs in a season:

Number
of Seasons

Player

3

Sammy
Sosa

2

Mark
McGwire

1

Barry
Bonds

1

Roger
Maris

1

Babe
Ruth

Like
other players from the “Steroid Era,” Sosa is widely assumed to have used
performance enhancing drugs. Unlike Clemens and Bonds, however, Sosa did not
have Hall of Fame numbers prior to the period he allegedly began usage. As a
result, he will receive approximately 15% of the vote.

Dale
Murphy

This
is Murphy’s 15th and final year on the ballot, making him 1 of 35
players to fall off the ballot due to time. His vote total peaked at 23.2 % in
his second year then dropped to a low of 8.5 % in year six. Last year he
received 14.5 % of the vote and this time he should gain a few more percentage
points.

A
2-time MVP Award winner, Murphy will join Juan Gonzalez and Roger Maris as the
only multiple MVP Award winners not enshrined in Cooperstown.

In
1983, Murphy’s statline was as follows:

G

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

TB

162

131

178

24

36

121

30

.302

.393

.540

318

In
1983, Murphy became the third player in history to hit 30 or more home runs,
steal 30 or more bases, drive in 100 or more runs, and bat over .300 in a
single season, and the first since Hank Aaron in 1963 (Ken Williams in 1922 was
the first). However, Jose Canseco joined this exclusive club in 1988 and this
feat was achieved 8 more times in the 1990s. It has now occurred 21 times, watering
down the impressiveness of Murphy’s achievement. This symbolizes much of what
has hurt Murphy’s candidacy. His numbers do not appear that spectacular any
more. At the time of his retirement, Murphy stood 27th all-time in
home runs. Of the 26 players ahead of him, 24 are Hall of Famers (Dave Kingman
and Darrell Evans are the others). Twenty years later, he stands 53rd
on the list.

Don
Mattingly

Mattingly
won 9 Gold Glove Awards, was named to 6 All-Star Teams, and took home the 1985
American League MVP Award. From 1984 to 1989, Mattingly was one of the top
players in baseball:

Year

AB

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS+

1984

603

91

207

44

23

110

.343

.381

.537

156

1985

652

107

211

48

35

145

.324

.371

.567

156

1986

677

117

238

53

31

113

.352

.394

.573

161

1987

569

93

186

38

30

115

.327

.378

.559

146

1988

599

94

186

37

18

88

.311

.353

.462

128

1989

631

79

191

37

23

113

.303

.351

.477

133

The
top WARs from 1984 to 1989 are as follows:

WAR

Player

47.7

Wade Boggs

41.1

Rickey Henderson

36.4

Cal Ripken, Jr.

35.8

Ozzie Smith

32.7

Alan Trammell

32.5

Tim Raines

31.9

Don Mattingly

31.2

Tony Gwynn

29.7

Ryne Sandberg

27.7

Jesse Barfield

27.5

Kirby Puckett

Unfortunately,
Mattingly was unable to maintain his success, his career derailed by a back
injury. Additionally, he had the misfortune of playing between Yankees
dynasties, a fact not forgotten by the New York media. His only postseason
appearance was in his final season. In the 5-game series loss to Seattle in the
AL Division Series, Mattingly batted .417 with 6 RBIs. The Yankees would win
the World Series the following season and 4 of the next 5…with Tino Martinez
playing first base.

This
is Mattingly’s 13th season on the ballot and it looks like he may
join Dale Murphy (above) on the list of players who spend the maximum number of
years on the ballot without being elected. He gained 4% points last year to
increase his total to 17.8%. He will probably take a small step back to 14%.

Mark
McGwire

In
1999, Major League Baseball made the ridiculous decision to allow its
All-Century team to be chosen by popular vote of the fans. First, a panel of
experts assembled by MLB compiled a list of the top players in history. Over 2
millions fans then voted on the players using paper and online balloting. All
living nominees were honored at the 1999 All Star Game and the All-Century Team
was revealed during the World Series. The All-Century team was comprised of the
top 2 vote-getters from each position, except outfielders (nine) and pitchers
(six). A Blue Ribbon panel then added five players omitted by fan voting to
create a thirty man team. Unfortunately, the panel could not correct all of the
fans’ mistakes (Stan Musial as the 11th greatest outfielder; Honus
Wagner 4th among shortstops; Warren Spahn, Christy Mathewson, and
Lefty Grove 10th, 14th, and 18th,
respectively, among pitchers).

The
list of 10 first basemen nominees with their corresponding vote totals are as
such:

Name

Vote
total

Lou
Gehrig

1,207992

Mark
McGwire

517,881

Jimmie
Foxx

351,488

Harmon
Killebrew

185,662

Eddie
Murray

161,564

Hank
Greenberg

114,317

Willie
McCovey

106,717

George
Sisler

28,378

Buck
Leonard

20,098

Bill
Terry

12,976

I’m
not sure who Johnny Mize ticked off to be left off of this list. Anyway, aside
from Buck Leonard, who was a Negro League nominee, here are the stats of the
players above:

Name

WAR

WAR7

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

Gehrig

108.5

65.7

1888

2721

534

493

1995

.340

.447

.632

McGwire

58.7

40.1

1167

1626

252

583

1414

.263

.394

.588

Foxx

92.5

57.5

1751

2646

458

534

1922

.325

.428

.609

Killebrew

55.8

35.9

1283

2086

290

573

1584

.256

.376

.509

Murray

63.4

37.2

1627

3255

560

504

1917

.287

.359

.476

Greenberg

55.1

45.9

1051

1628

379

331

1276

.313

.412

.605

McCovey

60.7

43.1

1229

2211

353

521

1555

.270

.374

.515

Sisler

51.1

45.3

1284

2812

425

102

1175

.340

.379

.468

Terry

52.1

39.9

1120

2193

373

154

1078

.341

.393

.506

Over
a half million fans believed (at least in 1999), Mark McGwire was the greatest
first baseman in history. This was enough for him to finish second in the
balloting. Jimmie Foxx must have rolled over in his grave.

On
a side note, you may have noticed McGwire’s strikingly low doubles total, an
amount which is less than half as much as his home run total. Exactly how rare
is that? Here is a list of the players who hit at least twice as many home runs
as doubles, minimum 10 home runs:

Name

Years

AB

H

HR

2B

RBI

Mark
McGwire

1986-2001

6187

1626

583

252

1414

Earl
Wilson

1959-70

740

144

35

12

111

Wayne
Belardi

1950-56

592

143

28

13

74

Danny
Gardella

1944-50

543

145

24

12

85

Jack
Harshman

1948-60

424

76

21

7

65

Kevin
Roberson

1993-96

309

61

20

10

51

Norm
Sherry

1959-63

497

107

18

9

69

Luis
Medina

1988-91

150

31

10

1

16

Obviously,
no one close to McGwire in total home runs achieved this feat. The number 2 man
on this list was a pitcher with 121 career wins (Harshman was a pitcher as
well).

Continue to Part III of our series on the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013.