I always wait as long as possible before filling out an
Oscar prediction ballot, on the grounds that you never know when some nominee
will indulge in a racist, drunken tirade or which nominated documentary will be
revealed as an elaborate practical joke.
(This is the same reason I always end up dropping off my mail-in
elections ballot on the final day.) I
know this doesn't make sense, considering real Oscar ballots were due a few
days ago, but it's a good excuse. Barring
any last-minute L.A. freeway chases or Weinstein-erected billboards, here's how
I'd fill out my office pool, if I worked in an office.

View full size"Argo" favored for Best Picture, but can Arkin come through too?

PICTURE: "Argo."
If there's a shocker, it'll be for "Silver Linings Playbook" or "Lincoln,"
but there won't be.

DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln." Once again he'll win a directing trophy while
losing out for Best Picture to a less self-important historical film that
appeals to Hollywood's reflective admiration.
The late push seems to be for Ang Lee, but I think this goes to Stevie.

ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook." The youngest two-time nominee in this
category should take home the gold, although this would make an outstanding 86th
birthday present for Emmanuelle Riva from "Amour."

View full sizeIf "Lincoln" had ended here, it might have won Best Picture

ACTOR: Daniel-Day Lewis, "Lincoln." Tough luck for "The Master"'s Joaquin
Phoenix, but there's no shame in losing out to a truly monumental performance.

SUPPORTING
ACTRESS: Sally Field, "Lincoln." The smart money seems to be on Anne Hathaway's
giving-it-her-all moment in "Les Misérables," but I feel like the Academy just likes Field more.

SUPPORTING
ACTOR: Alan Arkin, "Argo." This is the biggest toss-up of the major
categories, so I'll go furthest out on a limb by thinking that Arkin's hammy,
fun performance will triumph over the other previous Oscar winners up for this
award.

ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY: "Argo." Unless the wave of affection for David O.
Russell results in a surprise "Silver Linings Playbook" win, Chris Terrio
should take home the Oscar for his first produced feature screenplay.

ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY: "Django Unchained." The category which most reliably rewards the
best nominee should favor Quentin Tarantino for the second time, or perhaps
even Michael Haneke for "Amour."

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
FILM: "Amour." Every so often, this category yields a real
shocker, and if so, "War Witch" would be the leading candidate. But that possibility seems remote indeed,
considering the acclaim Michael Haneke's film has received thus far.

ORIGINAL SCORE: "Life of Pi." Exotic but not too eccentric, the music in "Pi"
is integral to its sense of wonder.

ORIGINAL SONG: "Skyfall." Adele, Adele, Adele.

DOCUMENTARY
FEATURE: "The Gatekeepers." Built around captivating interviews with the
former heads of the Israeli security service, it should sneak by the more
popular, inspirational "Searching for Sugar Man."

DOCUMENTARY
SHORT: "Inocente." This is the only category I didn't have a
chance to view, so I'm just going with Entertainment Weekly's prediction, to be
honest.

ANIMATED
FEATURE: "Frankenweenie." The heart wants Laika's "Paranorman," while the
head says either "Brave" or "Wreck-It Ralph."
The best film in the category, "The Pirates! Band of Misfits," seems
like the least likely winner. So I'll
split the difference and predict that Tim Burton will get his first Oscar.

ANIMATED SHORT
FILM: "Paperman." Whimsical modern-day romance from Disney takes
the day, although it sure would be great to see "Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest
Daycare'" win.

LIVE-ACTION SHORT
FILM: "Curfew." This stark but heartwarming tale about an
estranged uncle called upon to watch his niece for an evening totally
works. The Somali-set, refugee-made "Asad"
is also impressive.