staff focus

Senior Staff

Research Staff

Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis

Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis is executive vice president of the Institute
for Foreign Policy Analysis. She is an expert on U.S. national security,
with a focus on military force structure, Allied-coalition planning,
defense and deterrence issues, and interagency considerations.

Research

Weighing the Consequences of China’s Control over the South China Sea

This was an eighteen-month project to research, analyze, and examine in depth the various consequences for the United States – and, to a somewhat lesser extent, for its regional allies and partner states – of varying degrees of Chinese control over the South China Sea. A monograph was completed in November 2017.

The principal drivers behind America's rebalance toward Asia are Asia's
growing economic and strategic importance, as well as increased military spending in the region led by China and Russia, trends that are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
The challenge for U.S. policy makers is to minimize any extra-regional disruptions the rebalance may cause
and to maximize its global benefits. This project is an integrated, cross-regional study of the rebalance and its global impact.

This project focuses on crisis management, escalation control, and strategic stability in a multinuclear era. Dual-use, nuclear-relevant technologies are proliferating and a number of non-nuclear states are reassessing their security options. These trends suggest a need for increased coordination among allies and partners, especially in the context of coalition responses to crisis confrontations and potential nuclear blackmail, and they demand new thinking about deterrence and escalation management overall.

Peace Regime Building for a Nuclear Weapon-free Korean Peninsula: Next Steps for Capacity Building

In cooperation with institutional partners in Northeast Asia, IFPA is leading a nongovernmental multinational working group to discuss, research, and draft a joint proposal for a Korean peace regime that complements related inter-Korean efforts and facilitates North Korean denuclearization.

Support to the Defense Department, Combatant Commands, and Military Service Leadership

This is an ongoing project for the Department of Defense (DoD), for which the Institute provides detailed policy reports and organizes high-level workshops on critical issues of national security for DoD, combatant command (COCOM), and military service leaderships.

This three-year study completed in 2008 involves all of the countries in the six-party process and examines how these countries can build a regional organization to help implement the key aspects of a denuclearization agreement reached with North Korea.

Stability and Confidence Building on the Korean Peninsula: Meshing Korean Reconciliation with U.S. Security Requirements

This study, funded by the Smith Richardson Foundation and completed
in 2004, made a unique contribution both to the broad policy debate
on the U.S. response to Korean reconciliation and to the articulation
of a restructured military posture better suited to the geopolitical
conditions of a reconciled (if not reunified) Korea. The study concluded
with a monograph, Alliance Diversification and the Future of the
U.S.-Korean Security Relationship, by Charles
M. Perry, Jacquelyn K. Davis, James L. Schoff, and Toshi Yoshihara.

This project, completed in 2004, examined the military and operational requirements that could be anticipated to drive U.S. security planning for operations in Central Asia and adjacent regions over the next ten to twenty years.

IFPA conducted two projects that examined ways for communities threatened by environmental degradation or disaster to deal with these challenges: a November 2000 U.S.-GCC environmental conference and a multi-year study of the complex and diverse relationships between environmental threats and issues of ethnicity, ethnic tension, and potential ethnic conflict.

This joint three-year study completed in 2003 by IFPA and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) examined the long-term implications of Korean unification for the U.S.-Japan alliance. The study concluded with a monograph, The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Preparing for Korean Reconciliation & Beyond, by Charles M. Perry and Toshi Yoshihara.

Recognizing that over the first decade of the twenty-first century the United States and its allies will face a proliferation of precision weapons and missiles in the hands of adversaries, IFPA undertook several projects between 1997 and 2002 to assess U.S. and Allied missile defense and counterproliferation policy and technology.

In this joint two-year study completed in 2002, IFPA and the Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) examined issues and policy options on joint crisis management between Japan and the United States, exploring how Tokyo and Washington might better prepare for and respond to an array of crisis scenarios ranging from traditional security threats to emerging challenges.

This in-depth study of U.S., Allied, and coalition-partner security perspectives and policies focused on defense and security trends in South Asia, Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Overseas Presence and Power Projection

This study assessed the post-Cold War security environment and the contribution of American military posture to global security. Two monographs were produced: Airpower Synergies in the New Strategic Era and CVX: A Smart Carrier for a New Era.

Publications

Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security

Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

December 2013, Columbia University Press

Published by Columbia University Press in December 2013 , this book is based on a study originally completed under a grant to IFPA from the Smith Richardson Foundation and addresses major political and security challenges for the United States if Iran acquires a nuclear weapons capability. The co-authors are Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis and Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

Rather than focus on Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, this volume assumes the worst, and a defensive, aggressive, and unstable Iran is already in the possession of a nuclear arsenal. How should the U.S. handle this threat, and can it deter the use of such weapons? Exploring three potential scenarios in which Iran becomes a nuclear state, this volume breaks down the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the U.S. in a post-Cold War world.

The volume concentrates on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran’s military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran’s ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside of the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches the U.S. can undertake to improve its defense and deterrence planning.

Report on a January 19, 2011, workshop that brought together approximately fifty prominent policymakers and experts from the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea for in-depth discussions focusing on the current security situation on and surrounding the Korean Peninsula and prospects for greater cooperation among the three nations represented at the workshop.

38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy

Conference report

September 2010

The conference report from the 38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, "Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century," addresses the defining issues for the U.S. Air Force (USAF) in the twenty-first-century security environment as well as the planning, operational, and investment challenges facing the USAF in the years ahead. These include balancing legacy missions with irregular warfare demands; determining where the USAF can take risks in platform modernization and how best to assign acquisition priorities in a constrained budget environment; identifying and promoting new mission areas and service competencies; and articulating an up-to-date strategy for enabling and supporting twenty-first-century security planning that facilitates combatant-commander security cooperation and joint and Allied/coalition operations, and contributing as well to broader interagency requirements.
The conference was held on January 20–21, 2010, in Washington, D.C. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 38th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.

Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.

Re-Calibrating Security Force Assistance (SFA) as a Critical Component of Waging Irregular Warfare (IW) within the Context of the Global War on Terror (GWOT)

Jacquelyn K. Davis and Charles M. Perry

December 2008

Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Policy

Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

September 2008, 93 pp

We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation — a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran — this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

NATO's Relevance and EUCOM's Priorities in Dealing with a Rising Russia

Jacquelyn K. Davis and Charles M. Perry

August 2008

This report summarizes and elaborates upon discussions held at an IFPA workshop by the same name held on July 30, 2008, and organized in support of GEN Bantz Craddock, USA, then SACEUR and commander of USEUCOM. The report discusses emerging Allied concerns over a more assertive Russian security posture, and discusses potential opportunities for USEUCOM-led security cooperation in the greater Black Sea and Caucasus region as a way to enhance stability. Against the backdrop of the Russian-Georgian conflict (which erupted shortly after the workshop was held), the report also offers recommendations for appropriate U.S. and Allied responses.

Nuclear Matters in North Korea: Building a Multilateral Response for Future Stability in Northeast Asia

James L. Schoff, Charles M. Perry, and Jacquelyn K. Davis

July 2008, 186 pp

This 2008 monograph presents the findings of a three-year multilateral research project that explores ways to bridge differences among the parties and to develop a common approach to North Korean nuclearization. It explores the strengths and weaknesses of the six-party process and offers practical solutions to the numerous implementation challenges regarding nuclear dismantlement and verification, and coordinated economic assistance and investment.

This report analyzes the perspectives of NATO and SHAPE officials on the proper scope, focus, and timing of future adjustments to the Alliance’s 1999 Strategic Concept to bring it into closer accord with current and emerging strategic trends and priorities. The report also evaluates potential revisions to NATO’s deterrence posture (including with respect to forward-deployed nuclear weapons), and examines emerging requirements for Allied counter-proliferation planning, “out-of-area” missions (such as Afghanistan ), and civil-military coordination to protect Allied territory and critical infrastructure. Based on these assessments, recommendations are made for U.S. European Command (USEUCOM) planning priorities.

Rethinking the War on Terror: Developing a Strategy to Counter Extremist Ideologies

Jacquelyn K. Davis and Charles M. Perry

March 2007, 32 pp

IFPA completed and distributed this summary report on a January 2007 workshop organized in support of U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM).The focus of the workshop was a discussion of the ideological roots of Islamist extremism as a basis for countering such ideology. In addition, it identified and assessed the elements of a national strategy to defeat radical Islamist threats and addressed measures to promote democratization in the region. Attendees at the workshop ncluded experts and scholars specializing in various aspects of Islamic extremism, as well as USCENTCOM Deputy Commander VADM Dave Nichols, other senior command representatives, and high- ranking U.S. officials.

Radical Islamist Ideologies and the Long War: Implications for U.S. Strategic Planning and U.S. Central Command's Operations

Jacquelyn K. Davis

January 2007, 73 pp

IFPA completed this report as part of an ongoing study of radical Islam and its implications for the Long War against terrorism. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the ideological underpinnings of radical Islam and how these ideologies seem to be fueling terrorist and insurgent activities, including suicide bombing operations and other asymmetric strategies. Emphasis is placed on the effect of these activities in U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM’s) area of responsibility, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. This study also includes updated analyses and recommendations derived from a workshop on suicide bombers held in support of USCENTCOM earlier in 2006.

Report of a workshop held on February 17, 2006,in Honolulu, Hawaii. Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

Strengthening Forces for Democracy in the Middle East: Lessons from the Past & Strategies for the Future

March 2006, 21 pp

This report is based on a workshop of the same title convened by the Institute on February 9, 2006, in Washington, D.C., with the generous support of the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. It assesses the extent to which Cold War lessons in the struggle against Communism have relevance to the war against radical Salafist ideologies and to efforts to establish democracies in the wider Muslim world. The report examines the prospects for democracy in the area spanning North Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Both the workshop and the report contributed to IFPA's ongoing research focused on post-conflict reconstruction and stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and, at the same time, to efforts to inform and help shape U.S. government democratization efforts and public diplomacy strategies.

Central Asia in U.S. Strategy and Operational Planning: Where Do We Go from Here?

Jacquelyn K. Davis and Michael J. Sweeney

January 2004

This monograph, the result of a project completed in 2004, examines the military and operational requirements that could be anticipated to drive U.S. security planning for operations in Central Asia and adjacent regions over the next ten to twenty years.

Events

The U.S.-Japan-ROK Strategic Triangle and Maritime Security: Building Capacity in Northeast Asia and in the Broader Indo-Pacific Region

June 12, 2015, Washington, D.C.

This first of two high-level trilateral workshop was a key element of IFPA's research project "The U.S.-Japan-ROK Strategic Triangle and Maritime Security: Building Capacity in Northeast Asia and in the Broader Indo-Pacific Region." The meeting drew together some fifty senior officials and subject matter experts from the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, including U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Ambassador David Shear, Japanese Vice Minister of Defense for International Affairs Hideshi Tokuchi, and ROK Ambassador for National Security Affairs Dr. Chung Min Lee.

On June 5-6, 2013, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) and the International Security Studies Program of The Fletcher School of Tufts University will convene a high-level conference in Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). “Positioning Special Operations Forces for Global Challenges” will be held at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in downtown Washington, D.C. (1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW). This will be the fortieth IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, in a series widely recognized as one of the nation’s premier strategic dialogues.

Implementing a New Vision for SOCOM: Issues, Challenges, and Opportunities

February 29, 2012, Washington, D.C., a SOCOM-IFPA workshop

Counter-Piracy and Counter-Terrorism Planning for Somalia and the Horn of Africa: Implications for NATO and NSHQ Planning

January 10, 2012, The Hague, the Netherlands

IFPA collaborated with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies to organize the seventh NATO SOF Coordination Centre (NSCC) Senior Steering Group (SSG) meeting, a workshop on Somalia and future requirements for counter-piracy and counter-terrorism planning. The workshop explored options for dealing with piracy and its potential use by al-Shabab to destabilize Somalia and its regional partners, and to understand more precisely the possibilities for and/or constraints on an expanded use of NATO, the European Union (EU), or national forces to support the African Union mission in Somalia (AUMIS), to shore up the position of the Transnational Federal Government (TFG) in and possibly beyond Mogadishu, and to empower regional forces in their fight against violent extremists on the African continent. A related workshop objective was to explore the possibilities for enhancing and broadening intelligence collaboration on counter-piracy and counter-terrorism planning between NATO and the EU, and how such collaboration could enable NATO SOF to position themselves more effectively should the Alliance’s political leaders decide to support a more forward-leaning position on Somalia and the Horn of Africa, either to facilitate World Food Program deliveries or to employ the use of force, under a new UNSC mandate, to target jihadi training camps, pirate bases, or other related logistical infrastructure on the ground in Somalia.

The fifth SSG meeting took place in Krakow, Poland, on May 24–26, 2011, in conjunction with the NATO SOF Commanders' Conference and the dedication of the new Polish SOF Headquarters. The NATO SOF Commanders' Conference featured a panel presentation by four SSG members, focusing on lessons-learned from Afghanistan and recent operations. The four SSG members who participated on this panel — Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis, Dr. Rob de Wijk, Commodore Lars Wille-Jorgensen, and Dr. Andrzej Karkoszka — || had each traveled to Afghanistan with members of the NSHQ and met with ISAF and national SOF teams to hear their perspectives on lessons-learned and the way ahead for NATO SOF planning, training and education, and capabilities development. This meeting also featured the participation of senior Polish defense officials and leaders from U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), including Admiral Eric Olson.

A one-day trilateral dialogue organized by IFPA, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), and the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

This meeting was held in Mons, Belgium, on November 21-23, 2010, in conjunction with the NSHQ's formal activation ceremony and a NATO SOF commanders' conference. At this meeting, Dr. Jamie Shea, then of the Secretary General's Private Office, reported on the results of NATO's Lisbon Summit and highlighted the creation of a new NATO directorate focused on emerging security challenges (where he will now work as its Deputy Assistant Secretary General). The SSG also considered ways to boost support for SOF forces, planning, and capabilities in national capitals and discussed new mission areas, emanating from NATO's New Strategic Concept, for NATO SOF.

Organized by IFPA and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, with the support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

The second meeting of the NATO SOF Coordination Centre (NSCC) Senior Advisory Group (SAG). held in conjunction with a larger NATO SOF Symposium entitled "NATO Special Operations Forces (SOF) – Key to Mission Success at the Strategic Level." At this second meeting, SSG members discussed implications of the new NATO Strategic Concept for SOF employment and mission planning, as well as opportunities for enhanced intelligence sharing and the operational development of Alliance SOF.

The first meeting of the NATO SOF Coordination Centre (NSCC) Senior Advisory Group (SAG). SAG members were introduced to the NSCC, given briefings about its capabilities, personnel, mission-taskings, and its role in operational planning for Afghanistan.

Re-Calibrating Security Force Assistance as a Critical Component of Waging Irregular Warfare within the Context of the Global War on Terror

November 20, 2008, Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Special Operations Command

U.S.-European Dialogue on Combating WMD Proliferation

September 21 – September 22, 2008, Garmisch, Germany, in support of U.S. European Command and the Marshall Center/NATO

NATO’s Relevance and EUCOM’s Priorities in Dealing with a Rising Russia

July 30, 2008, Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. European Command

37th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: A New Maritime Strategy for 21st-Century National Security

September 26 – September 27, 2007, Washington, D.C.

The 37th IFPA-Fletcher conference on national security strategy and policy. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 37th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference provided a timely, high-level forum for presentation and analysis of the U.S. Navy’s New Maritime Strategy. It brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.

The Way Ahead with Iran: A Libya in Waiting, a Nuclear Pariah, or Something in Between?

August 1, 2006, Washington, D.C., in support of the under secretary of state for arms control and international security

Dissuading, Deterring, or Defeating the Suicide Bomber Threat

June 28, 2006, Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Central Command

SHAPE Seminar on Weapons of Mass Destruction: Risks and Challenges to Alliance Security

March 9, 2006, Brussels, Belgium, in support of General James L. Jones, the supreme Allied commander, Europe (SACEUR)

Building Multi-party Capacity for a WMD-free Korean Peninsula

February 17, 2006, Honolulu, Hawaii

Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

Strengthening Forces for Democracy in the Middle East: Lessons from the Past and Strategies for the Future

February 9, 2006, Washington, D.C.

This workshop explored the extent to which lessons learned from the Cold War era struggle against Communism have relevance to the war against radical Salafist ideologies and to efforts to establish democracies in the wider Muslim world.

Stability, Deterrence, and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance: Current Pressures and Emerging Priorities

January 29, 2003, Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Pacific Command, U.S. Forces Korea, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency

Taiwan Security and Air Power

January 9, 2003, Washington D.C.

As part of its research and dialogue efforts focused on Asia-Pacific security, IFPA co-sponsored this senior-level conference in Taipei, Republic of China (ROC). The conference was organized in cooperation with the Center for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies, the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies oat Tam Kang University, and the ROC's National Defense University, all in Taipei, and with the Centre for Defence and International Security Studies of Lancaster University in the United Kingdom. The conference provided an opportunity for in-depth discussion of the potential role of airpower in undergirding the defense of Taiwan, with discussion focusing on the cross-strait balance of power as a whole and with respect to air power assets in particular, air power modernization efforts now underway in both the ROC and the People's Republic of China (PRC), the role of air and missile defense systems in ensuring ROC security, and emerging priorities for the ROC Air Force in the years ahead.
Both before and after the conference, IFPA and other U.S. speakers and commentators were able to meet and exchange views with a very senior group of ROC officials, including President Chen Shui-bian, Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming, Legislative Yuan Vice President Chiang Pin-Kung, Deputy Foreign Minister Kau Ying-mao, National Security Bureau Director Tsai Chao-Ming, National Security Council Secretary General Chou I-Jen, and Secretary General Chan Chun-Hsiung of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

SOCOM Strategic Vision Wargame

December 3 – December 6, 2002, Norfolk, Virginia, in support of U.S. Special Operations Command, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency

The 33rd IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy