LEAP: Applications

Hundreds of government agencies, NGOs, academic organizations, utilities and consulting companies worldwide
use LEAP for a variety of tasks including, energy forecasting, greenhouse
mitigation analysis, integrated resource planning, production of energy master
plans, and energy scenario studies. LEAP has been applied at many spatial levels
including local rural areas, large metropolitan cities, and at the national,
regional and global level.

If you have an interesting application of LEAP that you would like to see included here, then please contact leap@sei-us.org.

Applications Include:

Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia, 2014

The term “green growth”and “low emissions development strategies” have become increasingly common in discussions of climate change policy in developing countries. Though studies for a number of countries have been conducted, virtually none address the role of fossil fuel extraction in green growth or LEDS. Working with three ministries of the Government of Mongolia and a team of local partner organizations; and with funding from the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), SEI recently conducted a scenario analysis of alternative energy scenarios for Mongolia, including what role Mongolia’s energy exports might play in fulfilling future Asian energy needs, whilst also examining the implications of green growth planning for these important sectors of the Mongolian economy.

Long-Term Energy and Development Pathways For India, 2014

India is both the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and home to the largest population of the world's poor. Climate policy for India must therefore include a strong element of inclusive growth, implying that reducing conditions of deprivation must go hand in hand with reducing overall emissions. A low carbon inclusive growth strategy for India is developed in this study using a transparent, bottom-up scenario modelling effort. The study shows that it is possible for India to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 and also provide modern energy services to more than half its population who are currently unserved or under-served in this regard. This would entail having to focus on providing energy services to at least the bottom 50 million or so households by providing LPG or advanced electric cookstoves where feasible, access to electricity for lighting, water, sanitation services, improved access to services in urban areas (involving changes in land-use and transport), improved agricultural services, and so on. At the same time, commitments would be required to improve efficiency across the board and increase penetration of renewable energy in electricity generation and to make efforts to shift transport, housing and industry towards more sustainable models.

There are indications that this strategy could provide numerous co-benefits apart from reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving access to clean energy for the poor. These include reduced local air pollution, improved lifestyles and a more productive workforce.

Climate, water and energy are intricately linked, so choices in any one sector can often reverberate across the others. To achieve the best possible outcomes, policy-makers need to understand cross-sector interactions and tradeoffs – the so-called ‘nexus’. This requires new tools for integrated analysis.

Seeking to meet this need, SEI has built a link between its water and energy decision support systems, which are already used in policy-making and planning around the world: the WaterEvaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. The integrated tools allow users to model evolving conditions in both water
and energy systems and examine cross-sectoral impacts of different policy choices.

The value of such integrated analyses is demonstrated here by a case study of the implications of meeting 10% of Southern California’s water demand through 2049 with desalinated seawater. By linking a WEAP model of the U.S. Southwest with a LEAP model of California,the study was able to quantify the impact on water imports, electricity demand from the water
sector, and greenhouse-gas emissions.

The WEAP model shows that in normal water years, desalination reduces the need for waterimports by about 300 million cubic meters per year. However, integration of climate projections shows significant variations between dry and wet years, and LEAP shows desalination increases the water sector’s electricity use by about 3 terawatt-hours per year, and emissions, by 1.4 million tonnes of CO2e per year.

Designing low emission development strategies (LEDS) in the context of national priorities

Designing systems for measuring, reporting, and verification of proposed actions and means to reduce GHG emissions

Facilitating the design and adoption of mitigation actions by selected industries in some countries

SEI has been assisting UNDP with the implementation of the programme. In 2012, SEI was commissioned by UNDP to develop data sets for 22 of the countries participating in the LECB for use within SEI’s LEAP software. These data sets include historical data (from 1990-2009) as well as a first draft baseline scenario to 2040, and a suggested structure for mitigation assessment. They are intended to serve as a starting point for the analyses of the developing country experts involved in the LECB project, and will be used in a technical workshop to be held in Marrakech, Morocco in October 2012.

The LECB Programme is funded by the European Commission, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), and the government of Australia (DCCEE and AusAID).

Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications, 2012

How can the world meet its energy needs for human development in a way that is compatible with sustainability?
What is required is nothing less than a wholesale transformation of the planet's energy systems, all of which must be achieved in
just a few short decades and while staying within extremely stringent climate change and resource-use constraints.

Though the challenge is great, the energy and sustainability scenarios in this report show that this challenge can be met.
The report describes a series of global energy and sustainability scenarios played out to 2050 for the planet divided into 22 regions.
The report also explores how to successfully implement change, via case studies of energy transformation and reviews of policy mechanisms
and governance frameworks.

The scenarios in the report were developed in LEAP as a transparent and open source global energy model. This model will shortly
be made freely available here for download and use within LEAP.

A LEAP dataset containing the 22 region global energy model will be available for download here soon.

PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge Transfer and Research for Mitigation/Adaptation Policy, 2012

With funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), the PROMITHEAS-4 project aims to develop and evaluate climate change mitigation and adaptation policy portfolios and prioritize research needs and gaps for twelve Central and Eastern European emerging economies: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Turkey and the Ukraine.

The work packages in the project include evaluation of available data and information, choice and implementation of models, develpment of national level scenarios, evaluation of policy portfolios, prioritization of research gaps and needs and training dissemination.

The overall strategy is based on development, implementation, evaluation, and knowledge transfer aimed at scientists and decision makers in both the public and private sectors.

As part of the project a comprehensive review of modeling tools was conducted, with LEAP being clearly judged as the most suitable, particularly due to its transparency, ease-of-use, low data requirements, flexibility, low cost and overall credibility. The full model review is available here.

Folowing its selection as the main tool for mitigation modeling in the project, a series of training workshops have been held to build capacity among organizations in the target countries. Those organizations have subsequntly been using LEAP, with assistance from the University of Athens in Greece and the Institute for Advanced Studies in Austria, to develop climate mitigation scenarios and policy portfolios.

The Third ASEAN Energy Outlook, 2012

Updated from the previous one, in collaboration with The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) and the National ESSPA Project teams from 10 member states of ASEAN, the ASEAN Centre for Energy published the third ASEAN Energy Outlook.

The Outlook used the GDP growth targets of the 10 member states in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, and analyzes the impact of the energy saving goals and action plans in the primary energy demand and CO2 emissions which termed as Alternative Policy Scenario (APS).

The Outlook used a combination of econometric and engineering based approaches for forecasting energy demands, using the MICROFIT Econometric Modeling System and LEAP.

Getting to Zero: A Pathway to a Carbon Neutral Seattle, 2011

Cities are home to half the world's population, consume over two-thirds of the world's energy, and account for more than 70 percent of global CO2 emissions, and several cities are now seeking to become leaders in mitigating climate change.
In February 2010, the Seattle City Council adopted the goal of making the city carbon-neutral. To that end, the Seattle Office of Sustainability and Environment (OSE) asked SEI and its partners Cascadia Consulting Group and ICF International to develop a carbon-neutral scenario for the city.
The team used LEAP to examine a suite of emissions-reducing strategies that could cut Seattle's per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2020, 60% by 2030, and 90% by 2050, relative to 2008 levels. The scenario entails:

Shifting to less GHG-intensive travel modes such as ride sharing, transit, walking and biking,

Dramatically increasing energy efficiency in buildings and vehicles, and

Transitioning homes, businesses, and vehicles to lower-carbon energy sources: electricity (or possibly hydrogen) in the long run, biofuels as a bridging strategy for transportation, and to a much lesser extent, sustainable biomass sources (for district energy systems).

Lebanon's Second National Communication, 2011

Executed by the national Ministry of Environment, Lebanon's Second National Communication to the UNFCCC has been completed and now is available online. The mitigation chapter explores a basline scenario and two mitigation scenarios modeled within LEAP out to they year 2030.

The first mitigation scenario looks at 11% penetration of renewable energy by 2030 and a target of 66% natural gas fuel mix while the second mitigation scenario explores an increase in the penetration rate of renewables (17% by 2030) and a full switch from oil-fired power plants to natural gas by 2030.

A Bridge to a Greener Greece, 2011

This report by the Bellona Foundation identifies three possible pathways Greece may take to respond to its emission mitigation challenge through 2050: No deployment of CCS, Constrained deployment and Full deployment. The latter scenario delivers not only the deepest emission cuts, but also the lowest electricity production costs. Combining a full deployment of CCS with biomass co-firing with coal allows the Greek power sector to become carbon-negative by 2040.

The report made use of scenarios developed using LEAP. The full report is available here.

Second National Communication on Climate Changefor Saint Lucia, 2011

Saint Lucia’s Second National Communication (SNC) to the UNFCCC was the result of the input and participation of a wide range of stakeholders including government agencies, statutory bodies, non-governmental organizations and civil society. The process was executed by the Sustainable Development and Environment Division (SDED) of the Ministry of Planning,Development and the Environment and coordinated through the National Climate Change Committee.

The main components of the SNC are integrated vulnerability and adaptation assessments;identification of national circumstances that affect the assessments; conduct of a green house inventory; mitigation exercises; and identification of challenges experienced by various sectors, and lessons learned.

The output of the Initial National Communication was considered against the background of emerging development challenges and the impact of weather systems on key sectors of the economy. In addition, the vulnerability of key physical, social and economic sectors and the consequences of these impacts on sustainable national development weighed heavily in selecting the sectors for the assessments. These analyses, along with the wider vulnerability of Small Island Developing States, generally led to the selection of agriculture, coastal sector, critical infrastructure, disasters, financial services, forest and marine biodiversity, health, human settlements and Tourism as the sectors of interest in this assessment.

Second National Communication of Jamaicato the UNFCCC, 2011

Jamaica's Second National Communication (SNC) includes GHG inventories for 2000-05 (and reference year (2000), prepared using the updated 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines. The SNC also assesses climate change impacts for the key sectors of health, human settlements, and tourism, in addition to revisiting
agriculture, water, and coastal zones, for the years 2015, 2030, and 2050.

Although not required as a non-Annex I Party, Jamaica’s SNC also includes an assessment of potential mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions over 2009 to 2030 that will, just as importantly, improve energy efficiency.

Finally, other activities in support of the Convention, such as awareness raising, a review of the national systematic observation systems, and a technology needs assessment, are also described.

In August 2008, Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts signed into law the
Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA), making Massachusetts one of the first
states in the nation to move forward with a comprehensive regulatory program to address Climate Change. The GWSA requires Massachusetts to set economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals that will achieve GHG reductions of:

This work culminated in the publication, in late 2010 of the Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 which details how the Commonwealth will comply with that limit. The limit for 2020 has been set to 25 percent below 1990 levels, the maximum authorized by the GWSA.

GHG Mitigation Assessment for Dominica, 2010

A greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation assessment was carried out for the Commonwealth of Dominica for the period 2000 to 2030. The LEAP model was used to estimate GHG emissions for three scenarios – a Reference Scenario and two other scenarios (S2 and S3) characterised primarily by increasingly aggressive mitigation measures to reduce the energy demand in the residential and transportation sectors and making use of Dominica’s abundant (relative to demand requirements) geothermal energy for electricity generation. Scenarios S2 and S3 entail the use of hybrid vehicles (i.e. S2Hyb and S3Hyb with hybrid vehicles accounting for up to 30% of the fleet in 2030 depending on the vehicle class). Scenarios S3 and S3Hyb include the export of electricity (produced by geothermal energy) to the neighbouring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe.

In 2025, GHG emissions are projected to decrease by 6% and 8% for S2 and S2Hyb and by 0% and 2% for S3 and S3Hyb; but to increase by 15% and 11% in 2030 for S2 and S2 Hyb and by 15% and 20% for S3 and S3Hyb - in all cases relative to the Reference scenario in 2000. The increases after 2020 are due primarily to increases in residential and commercial LPG use and gasoline use.

This report provides an update on national emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, adaptation actions undertaken to deal with climate change impacts, and mitigation of GHG emissions.

Senegal is perpetually confronted with the adverse effects of climate change because of its long coastline of 700 km, which suffers from the impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into agricultural land, salinization of water resources and the destruction of infrastructure.

Due to its rainfed agriculture, climate disruption may undermine efforts to fight against poverty and the objective of achieving self-sufficiency in food.

Today, the adverse effects of climate change are real and shared by all: natural disasters are increasingly frequent and devastating, and developing countries are increasingly vulnerable. Climate change’s adverse effects are most severely felt by people the least developed countries.

It is now essential to integrate adaptation measures into strategies for development if we are to effectively combat the impact of climate change on the living conditions of people. That is why the Ministry for the Environment included this dimension, as the main focus of its sectoral policies.

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 4th Edition, 2009

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to help develop the 4th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook in 2009. The report contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessment in Jamaica, 2010

The National Meteorological Service of Jamaica presents a greenhouse gas mitigation assessment covering projections of selected GHGs over the period of 2009 to 2035. Guided by Jamaica's National Development plan, Vision 2030, and the National Energy Policy: 2009 - 2030, the team used LEAP to model 3 scenarios: a reference scenario and two mitigation policy scenarios. Vision 2030 includes 4 national goals, 15 national outcomes and over 50 national strategies aimed at putting Jamaica in position to achieve developed country status by the year 2030.

The presentation of the Fourth National Communication of Mexico to the United Nations Framework United Nations on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reflects growing concern for understanding and addressing the major challenge from climate change facing developing societies around the world today.

The Program of Environmental Management and Economics at the University of Chile has completed a study "Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Chile: Background for the Development of a Regulatory Framework and Evaluation of Reduction Strategies". The study included projections of GHG emissions in Chile from 2007-2030 and evaluations of alternative policy options. The study used LEAP to examine fossil fuel emissions in the transport and energy sectors, and also included an exploration of emissions from industrial processes, land-use change and forestry.

Questions or comments should be directed to Manuel Díaz R. at the University of Chile.

Energy Policy for Honduras, 2010

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Honduras has designed an energy policy extending to 2030 which was modeled using LEAP. The analysis included two scenarios, one baseline and one "desired." The main objectives included a reduction in the the use of firewood, decreasing consumption from 42% in 2008 to 21% in 2030. The "desired" scenario also proposes the introduction of hybrid and electric cars, with the aim of having a more energy efficient transport sector.

The study is available here in Spanish. If you reference this report, please cite accordingly.

For other questions, please contact the National Project Coordinator, Mr. Wilfredo César Flores, at dgeper@yahoo.com.

CASINDO: CApacity development and strengthening for energy policy formulation and implementation of Sustainable energy projects in INDOnesia, 2010

As part of the ongoing decentralization of autonomy in Indonesia, regional governments are becoming increasingly responsible for setting energy policies. CASINDO aims to contribute to this process by establishing a self-sustaining and self-developing structure that will enable sound policies for renewable energy and energy efficiency at both the national and regional levels of Indonesia. CASINDO has been developed in close collaboration between eight Indonesian partners and the Dutch Government Agency AgentschapNL as part of bilateral energy co-operation between the two countries. It is coordinated by the Dutch foundation ECN and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and will run from 2009 through to 2011. The program involves activities both at the national level and in the provinces of Central Java, North Sumatra, West Nusa Tenggara, Yogyakarta and Papua. One key activity is building capacity among national and regional agencies to use of LEAP for energy planning. To this end, a series of LEAP training workshops have been conducted and teams are now engaged in the development of national and regional LEAP models.

Europe’s Share of the Climate Challenge:
Domestic Actions and International Obligations to Protect the Planet, 2009

Science is unambiguously telling us that even 2°C of warming would be highly dangerous for our planet. This report examines how Europe can show leadership in keeping global climate change within these limits: firstly, by undertaking domestic actions to rapidly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and secondly, by fulfilling its international obligations to help other countries address the twin crises of climate change and development.

The report first analyzes how Europe can embark on a transition to a low GHG future – enabling it to achieve GHG emissions reductions of 40% in 2020 and 90% in 2050 relative to 1990 levels through a combination of radical improvements in energy efficiency, the accelerated retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic shift toward various types of renewable energy forms.

Next, the report assesses Europe’s international obligations for assisting the world’s developing nations make a transition to a low-GHG future by using the Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs) framework as a basis for assessing fair contributions to a global climate effort.

The report, which was developed in partnership with Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE), was published on December 1st, 2009. The main report, a summary of the report by Friends of the Earth, a press release, media briefing and other materials are all available here.

China Economics of Climate Change, 2009

As the world’s most populous country and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China’s role is critical in combating global climate change.

As part of the project “Economics of Climate Change – Towards a Low-Carbon Economy in China”, a collaboration between the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the China Economists 50 Forum (CE50), researchers at SEI used LEAP to develop a technical analysis of how China’s energy systems might be altered over the coming four decades to allow China to meet ambitious goals for development and income growth at the same time as keeping GHG emissions within an overall budget that provides a reasonable chance of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C. The analysis developed a Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS) that examines the feasibility of massively reducing China’s CO2 emissions in 2050: with energy sector GHG emissions reduced to only 10% of the 2050 levels projected in the baseline scenario or about 85% of the level in 1990.

The CE50 Forum is an independent research forum made up of the most senior economists in China and is intended to act as a forum for researching and for presenting important issues related to China’s modernization, economic development and reform.

The project also resulted in a book edited by Lord Nick Stern and Prof. Fan Gang: "The Economics of Climate Change in China", which includes a chapter describing the scenario analysis. The book was named #11 on the list “2010 Top 40 Sustainability Books”, and is available for purchase from Amazon.

Mexico’s Special Climate Change Program—the Programa Especial de Cambio Climático (PECC), published in August 2009—sets Mexico’s long-term climate change agenda, together with medium-term goals for adaptation and mitigation.

The World Bank recently used LEAP to help create a new study called México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono (MEDEC) or "Low-carbon Development for Mexico". The study is intended to contribute to the implementation of Mexico’s long-term climate change agenda. The study, which was conducted by researchers based at the Centro de Investigación en Energía, evaluates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Mexico over the next 20 years. It evaluates low-carbon interventions across key emission sectors in Mexico using a common methodology. Based on the interventions evaluated, it develops a low-carbon scenario through 2030.

The dataset does not correspond to the final results of the study, since a number of changes and additions were made after the dataset was produced.

You must have LEAP installed on your computer to look at this dataset. To download the evaluation version of LEAP, click here.

New Zealand’s EnergyScape, 2009

EnergyScape is an initiative of the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) designed to help its citizens understand and visualize the flow of energy in New Zealand. It makes information about energy systems more accessible to scientists, businesses and policy makers, thereby making it easier for people to undertake long-term planning of New Zealand's energy future.

The EnergyScape project explores what New Zealand energy system might look like in 2030 and 2050. EnergyScape aims to test out current and emerging technologies in near future scenarios. Examples of technologies explored include electric vehicles, thin film photovoltaic cells, fuels from forests, pedestrianized cities, and smart electricity metering.

The EnergyScape platform, brings together a massive amount of data on production, distribution and conversion of energy into a tool which connects the different systems to each other and visualizes the results using LEAP. LEAP is used to allow people to create new scenarios and plug them together to create different visualizations of how New Zealand's energy landscape in the future.

A CO2 Neutral Copenhagen by 2025, 2009

The Danish consulting company, RAMBOLL, used LEAP for a series of climate mitigation scenario studies. Most prominent is feasibility study for the city of Copenhagen to become CO2 neutral by 2025. Copenhagen is already perhaps the most energy efficient city in the World, in part due to its widespread use of efficient combined heat and power (CHP) systems for district heating system, its huge investments in wind power, and because nearly 40% of its citizens cycle to work or school every day.

RAMBOLL used LEAP to help create a plan for achieving Copenhagen's ambitious climate mitigation goals. The LEAP study formed the basis for Copenhagen deciding to become the climate capital of the world, achieving a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2015 compared to 2005 and becoming first capital in the world to be completely CO2 neutral by 2025.

Since the mid 1990s the Fundacion Bariloche (FB) has been helping organizations to apply LEAP as a tool for energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. FB has organized numerous capacity building workshops and conducted many energy and climate mitigation studies for Government agencies in the region. A highlight of these efforts has been the annual workshops held in the city of Bariloche, Argentina, which to date have trained almost 300 professionals from Latin America and the Caribbean about energy planning using LEAP.

ECLAC: The Economics of Climate Change For Central American Countries, 2009

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Mexico is preparing a study on the economics of climate change for Central American countries. These countries (Panama , Costa Rica , Nicaragua , Honduras , El Salvador , Belize and Guatemala produce less than 0.5% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, they are also especially vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Temperature change, sea level rise, changing rain-fall patterns and other impacts will have an increasingly negative impact on the economies, populations and ecosystems of the region.

ECLAC is using LEAP to estimate baseline emissions from Central America’s energy sector, and to calculate the benefits of GHG mitigation actions as part of this study.

Preliminary results will be available at the end of 2009 at the ECLAC web site.

National Communications on Climate Change to the UNFCCC, 2009

Numerous countries have used LEAP to prepare greenhouse gas mitigation assessments as part of their initial national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). LEAP is also expected to be an important tool for countries preparing their second (and in some cases third) national communications. To this end, LEAP has recently been demonstrated as part of a one week training workshop held by the UNFCCC for non-Annex 1 Parties embarking on their next national communications. The National Communications Support Programme of the UNDP has recently informed us that 85 countries have chosen to use LEAP to assist in their Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessments as part of their National Communications to the UNFCCC.

A report on a recent LEAP training in Egypt hosted by NCSP is available here.

Second ASEAN Energy Demand Outlook, 2008

The 2nd ASEAN Energy Outlook was an effort to develop energy demand projections for all 10 members of the ASEAN region (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam).

The work was conducted through a collaboration of The Institute of Energy Economics in Japan (IEEJ) and national energy outlook teams from the 10 ASEAN member states with coordination and logistics by the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). The study used a combination of econometric and engineering based approaches for forecasting energy demands, using the Microfit econometric modeling system and LEAP.

How to Implement Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Options:
Support for South African Local Government, 2007

This manual has been developed by Sustainable Energy Africa as a handbook for city officials and planners in South Africa. It identifies energy interventions that will save money, promote local economic development and enhance the sustainability of cities. Four key interventions are identified: solar water heaters, energy efficient lighting, energy efficient buildings, and public transport. Scenarios for five cities in South Africa have been modeled using LEAP and are described in the manual.

Philippine National Energy Plan, 2007

The Department of Energy of the Government of the Philippines recently completed its new National Energy Plan. The DOE describes the plan as affirming the energy sector's commitment to to ensure balanced economic growth, alleviate poverty and promote a strong market-based industry. LEAP was used by the DOE for analyzing energy demand and supply trends over the study period.

This study authored by Shobhakar Dhakal of IGES in Japan examines Kathmandu Valley's motorized travel demand. It suggests that the demand will increase to 27 billion passenger-km by 2025, and the number of vehicles operating in the Valley will triple to about half a million by 2025. The study was sponsored by START International Secretariat under the auspices of the Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission and Global Carbon Cycle.

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 2006

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to help develop the 3rd APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook for 2006. The report contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Current global energy models provide aggregate forecasts of future energy consumption and production trends. They lack sufficient detail, however, to be able to describe what these broad trends imply for end-use consumption patterns in specific sectors such as buildings, transport and industry. This lack of detail makes it difficult to assess the plausibility of existing models in terms of indicators such as end-use efficiency, usage pattern, size/scale and technology penetration.

LBNL’s Global Energy Model (GEM) project attempts to fill this gap by creating a new global end-use model of energy consumption. In the first ongoing phase of the work, an end-use energy model has been created in LEAP that divides the globe into ten regions. In each region, “marker” countries have been identified where detailed data is more readily available that can support an end-use analysis. Results from these marker countries can then be used to inform trends in the other countries in each region. Once fully developed, the model is intended to be used (among other things) as a tool for examining the plausibility of energy demand forecasts created in more aggregate models. Thus it is expected to fill a considerable gap in current modeling efforts.

LBNL: Energy Use in Buildings in China: Current Status and Future Scenarios, 2005

China’s Official energy statistics do not provide detailed end-use information about how final energy is consumed in the country. Data are particularly lacking for the crucial building sector. LBNL used LEAP to create a bottom-up model of the sector which provides for detailed consideration of end-use intensities, equipment efficiencies, and technology penetration. This model has been used by LBNL to develop energy scenarios that assess the significance of various energy policies and technologies for China, and to conduct sensitivity studies that examine the implications of different assumptions about future macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rates and fuel price trends.

Prospectiva Energética de América Latina y el Caribe, 2005

This scenario study is a biennial publication of OLADE (the Latin American Energy Agency). It provides a forward-looking overview of energy supply and demand prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean to the year 2018. It includes data on the 26 member countries of OLADE. The study was conducted by OLADE in conjunction with the Bariloche Foundation, Argentina and the Independent University of Mexico and with financial support from the European Commission. LEAP was used as the main modeling framework for the study.

Cape Town Energy Futures, 2005

The Energy Research Centre (ERC) in Cape Town, South Africa has developed scenarios for Cape Town’s energy future. LEAP was used to simulate how energy might develop in Cape Town over the next twenty years. Cape Town had already developed a State of Energy report earlier, and adopted a City Energy Strategy including a 10% renewable energy target. The ERC report looked forward at how energy patterns might change in the future. The report found that policy interventions indeed can make a difference. Major energy savings can be made from modal shifts in the transport sector and with efficient lighting. Efficiency measures save money, and can help poor households in particular reduce their energy bills substantially. Implementing the city’s renewable energy target will have significant costs, which can be partly off-set by selling carbon credits. Targeted interventions can reduce local air pollution, and Cape Town has the opportunity to become a leader in addressing greenhouse gas emissions. The report identifies a wide range of policies that are viable in terms of costs, social benefits and the environment.

For more information, contact Harald Winkler, Senior Researcher, ERC, University of Cape Town.

United States West Coast Governors Global Warming Initiative, 2004

The Governors of Washington, Oregon, and California have recently approved a series of recommendations for action to combat global warming, and directed their staffs to continue working on state and regional goals and strategies to combat global warming over the coming year. This effort is widely considered one of leading state initiatives on climate change in the United States. The Governors have committed to act individually and regionally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below current levels through strategies that promote long-term economic growth, protect public health and the environment, consider social equity, and expand public awareness. In this latest development, the Governors approved 36 recommendations in five areas that were jointly developed by the three states. The recommendations are based on a range of analyses including a major scenario study developed by SEI for the Energy Foundation. The scenario study was conducted using a range of different models, with LEAP used as the main organizational accounting framework of the study.

Costing Energy-Related Inputs to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 2004

Improved access to energy is a critical input for achieving the MDGs. McKinsey & Company undertook this study for the United Nations Millennium Project (MP). The MDGs are internationally agreed targets that aim to make significant inroads into addressing the world’s development challenges, such as halving the number of people living in poverty, and reducing child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. The MP—an advisory body to the UN Secretary-General —has been tasked with developing an implementation framework that will allow the MDGs to be met by 2015. Thematic task forces have been established to map out the resource requirements, financing strategies and sequence of investments needed. The MP is initially studying seven countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. In the absence of internationally-agreed targets for access to energy, the MP defined a “parallel energy MDG” - minimum energy needs to provide basic services. The study analyzed a portfolio of interventions from which governments could choose and criteria that could be use in creating country-specific intervention plans. LEAP was used to facilitate costing of the case study scenarios.

Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES), 2004

A U.S. EPA lead initiative that engages developing countries in integrated planning to address both local environmental concerns and reduce associated global greenhouse gas emissions. The program promotes the analysis and local support for implementation of policy measures with multiple public health, economic and environmental benefits. To date, government agencies and research institutions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, the Philippines and South Korea have participated. A number of these studies have used LEAP as part of their analytical toolkit.

China’s ability to forge a sustainable energy path has global consequences. China’s annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprise nearly half of those from developing countries, and 12% of global emissions. At the same time, China has ambitious goals for economic development, and must find ways to power the achievement of those goals that are both environmentally and socially sustainable. In this study, the Beijing Energy Efficiency Center (BECON), part of the Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI), sought to explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and its longer-term aims through a sustainable development strategy. The project was conducted as a collaborative study between the United States and China. The U.S. team was led by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) The teams used LEAP to create an end-use scenario-based model for national energy-efficiency planning. SEI assisted the Chinese research team to in their use of LEAP.

In Japan, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with the energy transformation sectors account for over 30% of total CO2 emitted by the national economy. Substantial efforts to reduce the emissions in the power sector—which produces over half of energy transformation emissions—could have a significant impact on climate change mitigation in Japan. This report commissioned byWWF Japan explores the potential for CO2 emissions reductions from Japan’s power sector by comparing the estimated quantitative impacts on CO2 emissions, and the overall costs to Japanese society, of providing energy services through two energy pathways: a "Business As Usual" (BAU) scenario, in which current trends in the Japanese economy and power sector continue, and a "Power Switch" (PS) scenario, in which more aggressive transitions to non-fossil and low-carbon fuels are carried out in the Japanese power sector, accompanied by complementary aggressive implementation of energy efficiency measures geared to reduce electricity requirements.

Alternative Energy Scenarios for California, 2003

Recent blackouts and high energy prices have highlighted the pressing need for long-term and interdisciplinary approaches to energy policy in California. This project presents a range of energy scenarios as a useful approach for visualizing and critically engaging with future possibilities. Developing a set of methods and energy scenarios for California, the project highlights scenario analysis as a systematic and exploratory way of thinking about energy from a long-term perspective. It aims to inspire critical discussion about energy choices in a way that is accessible and interesting to a broad base of stake-holders and decision-makers, and offers a starting point for considering alternative energy pathways for California.

East Asia Energy Futures Project, 2002

The Nautilus Institute's East Asia Energy Futures project (EAEF) is collaborating with a network of regional energy researchers from the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, China, Japan, and the Russian Far East to produce a set of regional energy scenarios or "paths". The analyses will consider the national and regional energy security implications of a range of policies including international gas pipelines and LNG facilities, electricity transmission between countries, transport development, and the promotion of alternative fuels and energy efficiency. LEAP is being used by each group, both as a key common tool for scenario development, and also to promote transparency and data/results sharing between groups (2001-2002).

Energy Policy and Energy Conservation in Indonesia, 2002

As part of the Indonesia-Netherlands Energy Working Group, the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) has been working with the Indonesian Ministry of Mines and Energy to build its capacity for conducting integrated energy and environment planning. Initially, the work has focused on training staff of the Ministry about the basic concepts of integrated energy-environment analysis, using LEAP. Later, it is intended that the team will use LEAP to design and evaluate energy strategies for Indonesia and to assess the energy consumption and conservation potential of small sized enterprises.

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 2002

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to develop the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002, which contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) including the US, China, and Russia. The project is the major undertaking of the institute as mandated by the Energy Working Group of APEC.

Multi-Stakeholder GHG Action Plan for Rhode Island (USA), 2002

Funded primarily by the United States
Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Environmental
Management (DEM) of the State of Rhode Island facilitated a
multi-stakeholder process to develop an action plan to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from the State of Rhode Island. The process
involved stakeholders from the local community including
representatives of industries, and local electric, oil and gas
suppliers. SEI used LEAP to show where Rhode Island was heading in terms of its GHG emission trends and to help
quantify and evaluate the potential savings and costs of various
alternative GHG abatement options.

Biomass Energy in South-East Asia, 2001

Building on many years of collaboration with SEI, the Rural Wood Energy Development Programme(RWEDP) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN has adopted LEAP as a tool for organizing and analyzing biomass and rural energy issues. The tool has been distributed to focal points in 15 countries. A series of training seminars, centered on the use of the LEAP energy planning system, were conducted jointly by SEI and the RWEDP for participants from throughout the region. These have been used to improve awareness of biomass issues and build local analytical expertise.

Case studies for China, Nepal, Philippines, and Vietnam available here.

UNEP/Danida Project: Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations, 1999

The main objective of this project has been to provide a methodology, an implementing framework and a reporting system which countries can follow in meeting their reporting obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The project comprised national studies in Argentina, Ecuador, Estonia, Hungary, Indonesia, Mauritius, Senegal and Vietnam, and parallel studies and regional studies in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Andean Group of countries. Many of the countries involved in this project used LEAP to conduct their greenhouse mitigation studies, and SEI-Boston provided training and follow-up support to these countries. Click here to visit the project web page. Full reports, describing their LEAP analyses, are available from the UNEP web site for the following countries:Argentina. Botswana. Ecuador, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia.

USCS Program on Climate Change, 1998

As members of the US Country Studies (USCS) program Mitigation Experts Team, SEI provided training and support for greenhouse gas mitigation studies in Bolivia, Botswana, Cote D'Ivoire, Ecuador, Kenya, Mongolia, and Uganda. The activities, which were coordinated by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, included training and assistance for country teams in their applications of LEAP.

Beijing Municipal Environmental Planning System (BEMPAS), 1997

In a project funded by the World Bank, we have recently linked LEAP to standard tools for air quality dispersion modeling (ISC) and to a GIS tool for display of results. The project produced a Chinese language version of LEAP for use in the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau (BMEPB) and elsewhere in China and also involved the integration of LEAP with SEI’s other tools for water planning and solid waste management planning.

Energy and Agriculture in Africa, 1996

Under the direction of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, SEI used LEAP to prepare case studies of energy demand for agriculture in five countries: Cameroon, Mali, Sudan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (1996).

The SEI/UNEP Fuel Chain Project, 1995

SEI and the UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), and counterparts in Venezuela and Sri Lanka collaborated on a two-year project to develop analytical methods for incorporating environmental considerations in major fuel choice decisions. The project resulted in the LEAP fuel chain program (available as part of LEAP for DOS) and case studies directed towards fuel policy decisions in Venezuela and Sri Lanka.

Capacity Building and Planning in Southern Africa, 1993

Conducted as part of the long-term cooperative arrangement between the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and SEI, this project was designed as a flexible and responsive assistance program, used to promote sustainable and self-reliant energy and environmental planning in Southern African countries. It focused on four target areas: Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and the Technical and Administrative Unit (TAU) of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Programme activities included training workshops and collaborative studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe. SEI-Boston provided training in the use of LEAP and assistance with the formulation of national energy policies and master plans in both Tanzania and Zambia (1992-1993).

Costa Rica: Evaluating National Energy Policy Options, 1993

The Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) and local agencies collaborated with SEI to evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of selected national energy policy options (1993).

Towards a Fossil Free Energy Future, 1992

A groundbreaking study by Greenpeace International(1992) examined the requirements for a global transition to a fossil-free energy future. A technical analysis used to support the study, was undertaken using LEAP.

Report available here. This report is a scanned PDF file, which is very large (24MB). Downloading is not recommended for those with slow Internet connections.

America's Energy Choices, 1991

Tellus Institute used LEAP as the analytical framework for a prominent national energy study: "America's Energy Choices" -- that identified the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy to provide long-term economic and environmental benefits.