2020 is the biggest election year of our lifetimes, and there are thousands of state legislative elections happening across the country. Importantly, elections in 2020 are the last chance for Democrats to gain power in state legislatures prior to redistricting in 2021, which will determine electoral maps for the next decade.

Target States

At Sister District, our general political strategy is always the same. Each year, we’re looking for state legislative chambers that fall within three categories:

Blue FlipsBlue HoldsBlue Inroads

2020 is the biggest election year of our lifetimes – and there are thousands of state legislative elections happening across the country. Importantly, elections in 2020 are the last chance for Democrats to gain power in state legislatures prior to redistricting in 2021, which will determine the maps for the next decade.

Minnesota

The Minnesota Senate is our pick for the best Democratic chamber-flip opportunity of 2020. Democrats are down just 2 seats in this chamber, which has not been up since 2016. This means there are great districts that have trended towards Democrats since their last election, which are ripe for flipping this year.

Flipping this chamber would deliver a Democratic trifecta to the state of Minnesota, since Governor Tim Walz is a Democrat who is not up in 2020, and Democrats flipped the state house blue in 2018.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Redistricting: Congressional and state legislative lines drawn by state legislature; Governor has veto power over maps

Electoral College Votes: 10

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Minnesota is a critical battleground presidential state. Trump narrowly lost Minnesota (44.9% to Clinton’s 46.4%) and plans to work hard to win it in 2020. His campaign has already announced a strategy to aggressively target small, often overlooked counties in MN to add up to a statewide win. Democrats cannot take MN’s 10 Electoral College votes for granted this year.

There is also an important Senate race in Minnesota this year, where Democrats must protect Tina Smith’s seat, as well as competitive Congressional races (including MN-07 and MN-02).

Working to support MN State Senate candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Democrats need 9 seats in the Texas House to gain majority. That might seem like a lot, but it’s not – there are 150 seats in the chamber. Democrats gained 12 seats in the House in 2018, the biggest shift in the House since Republicans stormed through in 2010. Momentum is now on our side.

There are 9 House seats currently held by a Republican, where Beto O’Rourke won in 2018 (in some cases by as much as 60%). Even if we just won those seats, we could flip the chamber. There are other great pickup opportunities too, including in suburban areas where Democrats narrowly lost state house seats in 2018.

Texas is currently a Republican trifecta. Winning this chamber will break the trifecta and provide Democrats with a critical seat at the table for redistricting, so that Republicans cannot repeat the horrible gerrymandering that has kept them locked in to power for decades.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Texas

Texas

Democrats need 9 seats in the Texas House to gain majority. That might seem like a lot, but it’s not – there are 150 seats in the chamber. Democrats gained 12 seats in the House in 2018, the biggest shift in the House since Republicans stormed through in 2010. Momentum is now on our side.

There are 9 House seats currently held by a Republican, where Beto O’Rourke won in 2018 (in some cases by as much as 60%). Even if we just won those seats, we could flip the chamber. There are other great pickup opportunities too, including in suburban areas where Democrats narrowly lost state house seats in 2018.

Texas is currently a Republican trifecta. Winning this chamber will break the trifecta and provide Democrats with a critical seat at the table for redistricting, so that Republicans cannot repeat the horrible gerrymandering that has kept them locked in to power for decades.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Texas Fast Facts

Current Control: Republican Trifecta (since 2003)

Gubernatorial Election: Not in 2020

Length of State House term: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: December 9, 2019

State Legislative Primary Date: March 3, 2020; Runoffs July 14, 2020 (subject to further delay)

Redistricting: Congressional and state legislative lines drawn by state legislature; Governor has veto power over maps

Electoral College Votes: 38

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Texas is ‘bluing’ – and it has important implications for the presidential election. While Romney carried Texas by 16 points in 2012, Trump’s win was by 9 points just four years later. And since then, demographic and partisan shifts have continued to swing in our favor, as evidenced by Beto O’Rourke’s narrow 3-pt loss for the Senate in 2018, and Democrats’ 12-seat pickup in the state house that year.

There is a competitive Senate race (R-Cornyn), as well as a tremendous number of important, competitive Congressional races in TX this year (including TX-22, TX-24, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-31).

Working to support TX State House candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

North Carolina

To flip these chambers, Democrats need to win 5 Senate seats and 6 House seats Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats broke Republican supermajorities in both chambers. We can build on this energy to flip at least one chamber in 2020.

Flipping a chamber would give Democrats a critical seat at the redistricting table. As in many states, Republicans in North Carolina brutally gerrymandered the maps in their favor in the last round of redistricting. As one example, 2018 Democratic candidates for NC House received 51% of the vote, but only won 45% of the seats.

We can prevent this by flipping a chamber and ensuring that Democrats have a voice in the next round of redistricting. This is particularly important because the Governor in NC does not have veto power over the maps. So even when Democratic Governor Roy Cooper wins re-election, we will still need Democratic control of a chamber to have a say in redistricting.

As happened in Virginia in 2019, a number of NC districts have recently been redrawn, after courts held they were illegally gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. The new maps are not a slam-dunk for Democrats, but they do provide new opportunities.

Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is up for re-election in 2020. It’ll be a competitive race, and his reelection campaign will help drive resources and get-out-the-vote efforts for down-ballot candidates.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

North Carolina Fast Facts

Current Control: Divided. Governor – D; Senate – R; House – R

Gubernatorial Election: Up in 2020

Length of State Senate and House Terms: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: December 20, 2019

State Legislative Primary Date: March 3, 2020

Redistricting: Congressional and state legislative lines drawn by state legislature; Governor does not have veto power

Electoral College Votes: 15

Broader 2020 Opportunities

North Carolina is a battleground presidential state this year. Obama carried NC in 2008 before Romney won in ‘12 by 2 points, and Trump won it by just 3 points. Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to claim NC’s 15 Electoral College votes this year.

There is also an important, very competitive Senate race in North Carolina this year (R-Tillis), as well as competitive Congressional races (including NC-02, NC-06, and NC-09).

Working to support NC state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

To flip these chambers, Democrats need to win 4 Senate seats and 9 House seats. Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats broke a Republican supermajority in the Senate and flipped a dozen State House seats. We can build on this energy to flip at least one chamber in 2020.

Flipping a chamber would give Democrats a critical seat at the redistricting table, particularly for Congressional redistricting. Republican state legislators have brutally gerrymandered PA’s Congressional districts. And the political commission in PA that draws state legislative maps has also permitted terribly gerrymandered maps. As an example, in 2018, PA’s Democratic State House candidates received 54% of the vote, but only won 45% of the seats. We can prevent this from happening again by flipping a chamber and ensuring that Democrats have a voice in the next round of redistricting.

Flipping a chamber blue is especially important because the PA Governor does not have veto power over state legislative maps. So while Democratic Governor Wolf will be in office during the next round of redistricting, we’ll still need Democratic control of a chamber to have a say in the outcome.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the PA state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

To flip these chambers, Democrats need to win 4 Senate seats and 9 House seats. Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats broke a Republican supermajority in the Senate and flipped a dozen State House seats. We can build on this energy to flip at least one chamber in 2020.

Flipping a chamber would give Democrats a critical seat at the redistricting table, particularly for Congressional redistricting. Republican state legislators have brutally gerrymandered PA’s Congressional districts. And the political commission in PA that draws state legislative maps has also permitted terribly gerrymandered maps. As an example, in 2018, PA’s Democratic State House candidates received 54% of the vote, but only won 45% of the seats. We can prevent this from happening again by flipping a chamber and ensuring that Democrats have a voice in the next round of redistricting.

Flipping a chamber blue is especially important because the PA Governor does not have veto power over state legislative maps. So while Democratic Governor Wolf will be in office during the next round of redistricting, we’ll still need Democratic control of a chamber to have a say in the outcome.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the PA state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Pennsylvania Fast Facts

Current Control: Divided. Governor – D; Senate – R; House – R

Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020

Length of State Senate Terms: 4 years

Length of State House Terms: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: February 18, 2020

State Legislative Primary Date: June 2, 2020 (subject to further delay)

Redistricting: State legislature controls Congressional redistricting, Political Commission controls state legislative redistricting; Governor has veto over Congressional maps but not state legislative maps

Electoral College Votes: 20

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Pennsylvania is a critical, perennial battleground presidential state. Before Trump won the state by 44,000 votes, or less than 1%, Pennsylvanians had voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee in every election since 1992. Pennsylvania is one of the “Big Four” states that are likely to control the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to claim PA’s 20 Electoral College votes this year, with smart organizing, expanding the electorate through voter registration, and turnout efforts.

There are also several important, very competitive Congressional races in PA this year (including PA-10, PA-08, and PA-01, PA-07, PA-17, and PA-16).

Working to support PA state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Michigan

To flip the House, Democrats need to win 4 seats. Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats broke a Republican supermajority in the Senate, gained 5 seats in the House, and broke a Republican trifecta by electing Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. We can build on this energy to flip the House in 2020.

Flipping this chamber would finally give Governor Whitmer a partner in the legislature, which under GOP control has recalcitrantly refused to work with her to govern effectively.

Michigan Fast Facts

Current Control: Divided. Governor – D; Senate – R; House – R

Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020

Length of State House Terms: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: April 21, 2020

State Legislative Primary Date: August 4, 2020

Redistricting: Independent Redistricting Commission will draw the next set of maps; Governor cannot veto mapsElectoral College Votes: 16

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Michigan is a critical, perennial battleground presidential state. Obama carried MI in both 2008 and 2012 before Trump eked out a win by a quarter of one percentage point (10,000 votes). In fact, before Trump’s narrow win, Michiganders had voted for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992. Michigan is one of the “Big Four” states that are likely to control the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to claim MI’s 16 Electoral College votes this year, with smart organizing, expanding the electorate through voter registration, and turnout efforts.

There is also an important, very competitive Senate race in Michigan this year (D-Peters), as well as several competitive Congressional races (including MI-08, MI-11, and MI-03).

Working to support MI state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

To flip these chambers, Democrats need to win 3 Senate seats and 2 House seats. Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats won a hotly contested federal Senate race and flipped 4 House seats, bringing the chamber to the closest partisan divide in decades. We can build on this energy to flip at least one chamber in 2020.

Flipping a chamber would break a stubborn Republican trifecta, keep Republicans from passing harmful and regressive legislation, and provide an opening for Democrats to advance their own progressive legislative agenda.

Arizona

Arizona

To flip these chambers, Democrats need to win 3 Senate seats and 2 House seats. Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats won a hotly contested federal Senate race and flipped 4 House seats, bringing the chamber to the closest partisan divide in decades. We can build on this energy to flip at least one chamber in 2020.

Flipping a chamber would break a stubborn Republican trifecta, keep Republicans from passing harmful and regressive legislation, and provide an opening for Democrats to advance their own progressive legislative agenda.

Arizona is ‘blueing’ – and it has important implications for the presidential election. While Romney carried Arizona by 9 points in 2012, Trump’s win was by just 3.5 points. And since then, demographic and partisan shifts have continued to swing in our favor, as evidenced by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema’s narrow Senate win in 2018, and Democrats’ 4-seat pickup in the state house that year.

There is also an important, very competitive Senate race in Arizona this year (R-McSally), as well as several competitive Congressional races (including AZ-06, AZ-01 and AZ-02).

Working to support AZ state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Colorado

The Colorado Senate was a Sister District Blue Flip in 2018. Going into election night, Democrats were down two seats. Our candidates Faith Winter and Tammy Story helped tip the balance, flip the chamber and deliver a blue trifecta to Colorado.

Since then, the GOP has been absolutely relentless in its quest to recall Democratic State Senators and try to recapture power by any crooked means necessary. So far, their efforts have been unsuccessful. But their recall efforts give us a preview of the battle for the State Senate to come in 2020.

We need to watch this chamber closely to ensure that Democrats do not lose control of the chamber and the trifecta in 2020.

Colorado Fast Facts

Current Control: Democratic Trifecta (since 2018)

Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020

Length of State Senate and House Terms: 4 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: March 17, 2020

State Legislative Primary Date: June 30, 2020

Redistricting: Congressional and state legislative districts will be drawn by Political Commission

Electoral College Votes: 9

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Colorado is an important presidential battleground state. Clinton carried the state by less than 5 points in ‘16, so Democrats cannot take Colorado’s 9 Electoral College votes for granted this year.

There is also an important, very competitive Senate race in Colorado this year (R-Gardner).

Working to support CO state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Georgia’s state legislature is poised for Democratic gains. Despite rampant voter suppression and racial gerrymandering by Republicans, Democrats were able to flip 11 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate in 2018. And Democrat Stacey Abrams within 1.5% of becoming the nation’s first African-American woman to be elected as Governor.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines. It is our last chance to build power in Georgia’s legislature ahead of redistricting, which has implications for the next entire decade.

Georgia

Georgia

Georgia’s state legislature is poised for Democratic gains. Despite rampant voter suppression and racial gerrymandering by Republicans, Democrats were able to flip 11 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate in 2018. And Democrat Stacey Abrams within 1.5% of becoming the nation’s first African-American woman to be elected as Governor.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines. It is our last chance to build power in Georgia’s legislature ahead of redistricting, which has implications for the next entire decade.

Georgia Fast Facts

Current Control: Republican Trifecta (Since 2005)

Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020

Length of State Senate and House Terms: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: March 6, 2020

State Legislative Primary Date: May 19, 2020; Runoffs July 21, 2020 (subject to further delay)

Redistricting: State legislature controls Congressional and state legislative redistricting; Governor has veto power over maps

Electoral College Votes: 16

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Georgia is becoming more purple – and it has important implications for the presidential election. While Romney carried Georgia by nearly 8 points in 2012, Trump’s win was by 5 points just four years later. And since then, demographic and partisan shifts have continued to swing in our favor, as evidenced by Stacey Abrams’ narrow 1.5-pt loss for the Governorship in 2018, and Democrats’ 11-seat pickup in the State House that year.

There are also two important, competitive Senate races in GA this year (R-Perdue, and R-Loeffler), as well as two very competitive Congressional races (GA-06 and GA-07)..

Working to support GA state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Wisconsin

In 2018, Democratic candidates received 200,000 more votes than Republicans and won all statewide offices, but are teetering on the brink of superminority in the Assembly. Just 2 years ago, Democrats received 54% of the vote for State Assembly, but won only 36% of the seats, all due to Republican gerrymandering.

The GOP already has a supermajority in the WI Senate, which makes the House super important: the GOP is just 3 seats away from gaining a supermajority in the House. Fending off a Republican supermajority in the House will allow Democrats to retain a seat at the redistricting table. If we can keep the GOP from gaining a supermajority, we can retain Democratic Governor Evers’ veto power over the next set of maps.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the WI state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Wisconsin Fast Facts

Current Control: Divided. Governor – D; Senate – R; House – R

Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020

Length of State Assembly Terms: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: June 1, 2020

State Legislative Primary Date: August 11, 2020

Redistricting: State legislature controls Congressional and state legislative redistricting; Governor has veto over maps

Electoral College Votes: 10

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Wisconsin is a critical, perennial battleground presidential state. Before Trump won by 22,000 votes in 2016, Wisconsites had voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each election since 1992. Wisconsin is one of the “Big Four” states that are likely to control the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, and many pundits believe WI may be the single state upon which the election will turn. Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to claim WI’s 10 Electoral College votes this year, with smart organizing, expanding the electorate through voter registration, and turnout efforts.

There are also two competitive Congressional races in WI this year (WI-03 and WI-07).

Working to support WI state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Florida’s state legislature is poised for Democratic gains. In 2018, Democrat Andrew Gillum narrowly lost the Governor’s race to Republican Ron DeSantis by less than half a point, and Democrats flipped two Congressional and 7 State Senate seats.

GOP state legislators drew the state’s Congressional and state legislative district lines in their favor after the last round of redistricting in 2010. Following successful legal challenges, the Florida Senate district lines were redrawn in 2015 to be less gerrymandered, but the House remains badly gerrymandered in favor of Republicans.

Nonetheless, there are some great opportunities for Democrats in both chambers, particularly after 2018’s successful citizen-initiated ballot initiative (Amendment 4), whose passage means that more than a million formerly incarcerated people can now register to vote in Florida, offering an opportunity for Democrats to expand the electorate.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines. It is our last chance to build power in FL’s legislature ahead of redistricting, which has implications for the next entire decade.

Florida

Florida

Florida’s state legislature is poised for Democratic gains. In 2018, Democrat Andrew Gillum narrowly lost the Governor’s race to Republican Ron DeSantis by less than half a point, and Democrats flipped two Congressional and 7 State Senate seats.

GOP state legislators drew the state’s Congressional and state legislative district lines in their favor after the last round of redistricting in 2010. Following successful legal challenges, the Florida Senate district lines were redrawn in 2015 to be less gerrymandered, but the House remains badly gerrymandered in favor of Republicans.

Nonetheless, there are some great opportunities for Democrats in both chambers, particularly after 2018’s successful citizen-initiated ballot initiative (Amendment 4), whose passage means that more than a million formerly incarcerated people can now register to vote in Florida, offering an opportunity for Democrats to expand the electorate.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected to the state legislature in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines. It is our last chance to build power in FL’s legislature ahead of redistricting, which has implications for the next entire decade.

Florida Fast Facts

Current Control: Republican Trifecta (since 2011)

Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020

Length of State Senate Terms: 4 years

Length of State House Terms: 2 years

Candidate Filing Deadline: June 12, 2020

State Legislative Primary Date: August 25, 2020

Redistricting: State legislature controls Congressional redistricting, and the Governor has a veto over these maps; state legislature controls state legislative redistricting, subject to State Supreme Court approval, and Governor has no veto over these maps

Electoral College Votes: 29

Broader 2020 Opportunities

Florida is a critical, perennial battleground presidential state. Floridians voted for Obama in ‘08 and ‘12 before Trump won the state by about 1 point. Florida is one of the “Big Four” states that are likely to control the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to claim FL’s 29 Electoral College votes this year, with smart organizing, expanding the electorate through voter registration, and turnout efforts.

There are also several competitive Congressional races in FL this year (including FL-26, FL-27, FL-15 and FL-16).

Working to support FL state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.