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3 Reasons This Is No Netflix Killer

HBO Go's popularity will not hurt Netflix.

The application, which allows owners of Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL) and Android devices to stream hundreds of shows on demand from Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) HBO on their smartphones and tablets, is closing in on 3 million downloads.

In a clever case of marketing, HBO is making next weekend's True Blood episode available early to HBO Go users. Is this how we got to 3 million?

It's a big number for a service that was launched just a few weeks ago, though it's important to make the distinction between downloads and active users.

Sirius XM Radio(Nasdaq: SIRI) turned heads when its Apple app was downloaded a million times during its first two weeks on the market two summers ago. The satellite radio company never provided activation metrics, and weak revenue growth at the time suggests that the vast majority of those that did download the app didn't stick around after the seven-day free trial.

However, there's a big difference between HBO Go and Sirius XM's app: HBO Go is available at no additional cost to most of HBO's real-world subscribers. Sirius XM expects existing Sirius and XM receiver owners to pay $3 a month to stream.

HBO Go's app model is eerily similar to Netflix's (Nasdaq: NFLX) approach of offering streaming as a bonus to existing subscribers, even though Netflix now offers a cheaper, stand-alone streaming plan.

I don't see how HBO Go is a shot at Netflix. Let's go over three meaty reasons why this is no Netflix killer.

1. HBO Go is free, but it's not cheapOffering the HBO Go app at no extra cost to active subscribers doesn't make it the same kind of value proposition as Netflix. Remember that HBO isn't available on its own. The premium movie channel is offered only to top off already costly cable and satellite television plans.

This is a neat perk for the HBO subscriber paying nearly $100 a month for digital cable and HBO, but it doesn't compare to Netflix's unlimited streaming, which can be had for as little as $8 a month. There's a reason HBO growth has been stagnant lately, while Netflix growth has gone through the roof.

2. HBO Go is a retention toolLeading cable provider Comcast(Nasdaq: CMCSA) continues to lose video customers. It shed 39,000 subscribers during the first three months of this year.

It's not as if the cord cutting has been contagious. Pay television's user base suffered its first ever quarterly decline during last year's second quarter, but it has largely bounced back. Comcast and many of its cable operators are simply losing couch potatoes to cheaper alternatives. AT&T's (NYSE: T) U-verse and Verizon's (NYSE: VZ) FiOS are being aggressively marketed. Satellite television is also finding ways to grow.

Comcast is hoping to stop the bleeding by turning to the cloud. The TV Everywhere initiative it's been championing has spawned Xfinity and now an Xfinity streaming app to take its cable plans on the go. Comcast is turning to Xfinity as a retention tool, and the same can be said about HBO Go's app.

HBO and Netflix aren't mutually exclusive. Each service is trying to provide more bang for the buck through streaming, but it's not an either/or scenario.

It never has been. It never will be.

3. HBO and Netflix are entirely different beastsWhy isn't anyone calling HBO Go a Hulu killer? After all, HBO and Hulu revolve largely around television shows. Netflix offers several streaming shows and seasons on DVD, but we're also talking about tens of thousands of digitally delivered movies through Netflix.

Yes, one can argue that HBO Go and Netflix streaming will find their respective subscribers spending more time consuming the services. With less time to go around, everything else -- and not just rival digital streams -- will be competing for that narrowing leisure time.

However, each service is really only as good as its content. I'll probably ditch HBO once the upcoming season of Curb Your Enthusiasm runs its course. I can't fathom weaning myself off of Netflix, because there's always something coming out soon.

The early access to this week's True Blood may make the app popular, but HBO Go is not going to get in the way of Netflix's plans for global domination.

Is cord cutting real or just a blip? Share your thoughts in the comment box below.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been a Netflix shareholder -- and subscriber -- since 2002. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakersnewsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.

Author

Rick has been writing for Motley Fool since 1995 where he's a Consumer and Tech Stocks Specialist. Yes, that's a long time with more than 20,000 bylines over those 22 years. He's been an analyst for Motley Fool Rule Breakers and a portfolio lead analyst for Motley Fool Supernova since each newsletter service's inception. He earned his BBA and MBA from the University of Miami, and he splits his time living in Miami, Florida and Celebration, Florida.
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