Migration

Population growth

The Øresund Bridge opened in 2000 and, since then, the number of inhabitants in the Øresund Region has grown by about 270,000 in 2012. 6 per cent of the growth is distributed west of Øresund and 11 per cent east of it. Some of this growth is due to an excess of births over deaths of 40,000 – mainly on the Danish side – while the remainder is due to an immigration surplus. There is a net immigration of 100,000 people from countries other than Denmark and Sweden, while the net migration from other regions of the two countries, especially Sweden, is 40,000.

The extent and direction of migration is determined mainly by the labour market (wages, qualifications and mobility), the housing market (pricing and location) as well as cultural differences and immigration policy.

Growth in the Øresund Region capita number remained fairly constant at around 15,000 annually from the late 1990s until 2005, but it peaked with 37,000 in 2009. The increasing excess of births over deaths and especially immigration surplus has driven the growth in the number of inhabitants.

On the Danish side of Øresund, population growth has increased to around 20,000 annually over the period 1998–2011 and is determined mainly by a rising immigration surplus of 12,000 from other countries; there is also a slight increase of about 5,000 relocations from the rest of Denmark. Net emigration of Danes (including to Scania) stopped after 2007 and there has also been an increased net immigration, especially from western countries. The annual excess of births over deaths is around 4,000.

In Scania, the number of immigrants and newcomers from the rest of Sweden peaked in 2009 with a total of 23,000. In 2011, the figure dropped to a more modest level of between 5,000 and 6,000. Net immigration from Zealand peaked at 2,800 in 2006 with the fall in immigration but it is now replaced by a net emigration to Zealand. On the other hand, Scania has experienced a rising excess of births over deaths in recent years.

Migration across the Øresund

After the opening of the Øresund Bridge, there was a tremendous growth in migration across Øresund, and it was quite significant that it was Zealanders who began to move to the Scanian side of the Øresund.

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The main drivers of the flow of Danes to Scania in the period 2000–2007 were opportunities for bigger and cheaper housing. In addition, there was the lower cost of living and, for some, the less stringent rules on family reunification in Sweden. The better and cheaper housing in Scania – usually Malmö – was usually combined with retaining attractive and well-paid jobs on Zealand, usually in Copenhagen. So it was the Danish inflow to Scania, which started the commuting wave from Scania to Zealand. During the period 2000–2011, 13,000 moved permanently from Zealand to Scania, and Danes account for half of the daily commute from Scania to Zealand.

Housing prices have had a major impact on migration behaviour. Given that the large difference between the high housing prices in the Capital Region and the low prices in Scania peaked in 2007, migration flow followed the same pattern.

After 2008, both the price difference and the migration surplus to Scania declined substantially, and the migration surplus has even become a migration deficit.

By 2011, migration from Zealand to Scania dropped to half the maximum level of 2007, and relocations are now only twice the 2000-level. On the other hand, migration from Scania to Zealand peaked in 2010, when it overtook the number of relocations from Zealand to Scania, but then this migration flow also waned. In 2011, there were 500 more relocations to the west than the east.

Just as the migration flow to Scania was characterised by the fact that 75 per cent were Danes, this is also the flow in the opposite direction, since many Danes are now moving back to Zealand after living for a time in Scania. Only one in five of those moving from Scania to Zealand, is a Swedish citizen.

An increasing proportion of migrants are not born in Denmark or Sweden. In 2010, one in three of those who moved to the other side of Øresund was from a country other than Denmark or Sweden. This proportion is the same for each direction and fell slightly in 2011

Direction of migration

A large proportion of the relocations across Øresund are concentrated between the two major cities of Copenhagen and Malmö. Migration to Scania has been particularly characterised by many first-time relocations across Øresund; and it is Malmö especially, which has been the target of movement.Migration from Zealand to Scania has now halved compared to its peak in 2007. Relatively, the decrease is greatest for Malmö and southwest Scania, while, on the whole, the rest of Scania has not experienced such a decline in arrivals from Zealand.

The reverse migration from Scania to Zealand increased by 29 per cent from 2007 to 2011. Growth in migration from Scania comes mainly from Malmö. Relatively, growth in migration to Zealand is greatest in Copenhagen and especially to the rest of the Capital Regionof Denmark outside Copenhagen. This is largely due to Danes who choose to move back to the Danish part of the region, now that housing prices have fallen significantly.

In 2007, there was significant net migration from all areas of Zealand to all areas in Scania. In 2011, the net direction of travel was in the opposite direction from all areas in Scania.

Migration by age

Migrants between Greater Copenhagen and the rest of Denmark and between Malmö and the rest of Sweden are for the most part around 16–24 years old; typically they are young people who leave home. Migrants across Øresund between Greater Copenhagen and Malmö are somewhat older, around 25–34 years; typically, these are young people who have either established or are about to start a family. In general, women are younger than men when they move, and this is especially true for those who choose to cross the Øresund to settle on the other side.

In other words, whether moving from Zealand to Scania or the opposite direction, migrants are roughly the same age. However, a picture emerges that migrants who move back to the west of Øresund are a little older – typically families with children – than the migrants who move to the eastern part of the Øresund Region

Danes change settlement patterns in Scania

As at 1 January 2012, 25,000 Danish citizens were living in Scania1, of which quite a few (15 per cent) were born in Sweden. In addition, there were several thousand people who were born in Denmark, but have Swedish citizenship. In the latter group, more than half are more than 60 years old.

Migration from Denmark to Scania has increased significantly since 2000, when there were almost 10,000 Danish citizens living there. Migration to Scania has declined since 2007, while migration from Scania to Denmark has increased because many Danes have chosen to move back following a period in Scania – typically when their children reach school age.

Prior to 2000, Danes were over-represented in many municipalities in northwest Scania, including in the small industrial municipalities Klippan, Åstorp, Perstorp and Örkelljunga. It was evident that the Danes had immigrated before 2000, and 39 per cent of them lived in northwest Scania at the time.

After 2000, there was a shift in settlement patterns, although all municipalities in Scania experienced increased migration from Denmark. During the period 2000–2011, 15,500 Danes moved to Scania, of which only 14 per cent settled in northwest Scania, while 78 per cent settled in Southwest Scania. And growth is concentrated in Malmö, which received 64 per cent of Scania's net increase of Danes. The rest of southwest Scania has had a relatively small increase in Danes. Also, in northeast and southeast Scania, where Danish settlement was already modest, the growth in Danish settlers has been even more limited. In 2012, half of Scania’s 25,000 Danish citizens were in Malmö and represented 4 per cent of the population. Other municipalities in Scania with 3–4 per cent Danes are Bjuv, Örkelljunga and Klippan, while Kristianstad with only 0.3 per cent Danish nationals is the city that has the smallest population of Danes.

Future migration patterns

When the Øresund Bridge opened in 2000, the increasing number of migrations across the Øresund was an expression of emerging integration of Danish and Swedish parts of the ØresundRegion. Relocations, particularly in respect of Copenhageners, were part of a pattern that started with movement away from rapidly rising house prices, where there was good and affordable housing and at a distance, which meant that they could keep their attractive and highly paid jobs on the Danish side of the Øresund.

Moving to another country can be an exciting challenge, but it can also be costly in terms of cultural and linguistic hurdles and barriers to establishing new networks – perhaps at the expense of old networks and family. After a few years, many Danes decide, therefore, to move back to where they came from, partly because the children have reached school age. Others move back because the Danish housing market has become more accessible after the years of high prices, or because many lost their jobs in Denmark after the financial crisis and have been unemployed.

Future migration patterns will be influenced by developments in an uncertain housing market, a labour market with high unemployment, and by the fact that the economic situation, all things being equal, has been more favourable to the Swedish than the Danish side of the Øresund. Will it still be advantageous to settle in Malmö in terms of housing prices, travel costs and travel distance? Will relocations still be linked closely to commuting back to a well-paid job in Copenhagen, or will more Danes move both home and work to Scania and thus become more and permanently integrated in the Scania side?

Likewise, the future will show whether any of the over 7,000 Scanians, who currently commute to a job on the Danish side, will settle closer to their work. Will they be able to come to adjust to the Danish housing market after the house price falls in Copenhagen and Zealand?

Foonote:1According to an earlier report from Region Scania, approximately 75 per cent of all Danes born in Scania are Danish citizens, which is equivalent to the fact that there should be around 32,000 Danes currently settled in Scania.