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Voter turnout could hurt Faulconer

But analysts still predict mayor will win re-election without runoff

Vince Vasquez, a National University policy analyst who published a report this week on the local voter registration spike, was even more optimistic about the mayor’s chances of ending the race in June.

“When you look at prior races where an incumbent was taken out, you have these really unique circumstances – high-quality candidates, significant money spent by the opposition and a key issue,” Vasquez said.

“Faulconer has played it smart in terms of issues he goes to the mat on,” Vasquez said. “He waits for public opinion and political stakeholders to coalesce. That’s taken away an opportunity for a credible challenger to come in and make the race competitive.”

San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer speaks during a press conference— John Gastaldo / San Diego Union-TribuneVasquez said, however, that the voter registration spike and recent shifts in the presidential race could affect other local contests and have given Harris and Saldana a greater opportunity to force a runoff than they had.