With the recent talk of conference expansion (and the inevitability of conference title game), Brian examines the last 13 years in the Big Ten to determine if a title game would be helpful. Ultimately, he advocates for an optional title game when necessary.

Lloyd and Mike Hart both react to Jim Harbaugh’s earlier comments about academic standards at ‘M’. Notably, Mike Hart inadvertently implies that Harbaugh could have come to be the head coach after one year, meaning that Carr only has a year left.

Monday Recruitin’. Two instate prospects have committed elsewhere. One (WR Fred Smith to MSU was heavily recruited, the other (RB Jonas Gray to Nebraska) was not.

August 7 - Tuesday

After having a conversation with BTN headhancho Mark Silverman last month, Brian was now contacted by Comcast executive Bill Connors. There is still much uncertainty about how many people will be able to see football games next month. The main sticking point seems to be that BTN wants to be on basic cable. Comcast says it is a regional sports network that does not belong on basic.

Yeah... about that. Unsurprisingly but much to the chagrin of everyone except Michigan State fans, John L is gone. Into his cowboy boots steps Mark Dantonio, formerly of Cincinnati and Ohio State. He is the antithesis of JLS: a defensive coordinator from a traditional power who is as exciting as toast. JLS spent his offseasons climbing Kilimanjaro or jumping out of planes; Dantonio's summer was highlighted by an appearance in Faith Magazine, which is unfortunately not a Georgie Michael fanzine but rather a bonafide religious magazine my mother gets.

Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer lead the team that Brian predicts will go 4-8. They finished the year at 7-6.

Sometimes even I wince at the nasty things I write even before I publish them. But once the red mist has lifted it's like 1:30 and I've got this screed and my blog has seven mouths and no bottom so up it goes.

But then he goes back and rereads the piece that Stewart Mandel put out and doesn’t feel bad anymore.

I’m slightly confused by what happened here. Apparently, earlier in August Brian did a piece called Destroy Harbaugh (a very long, pointed attack) in response to a Pat Forde article where Harbaugh reaffirmed his earlier comments. This was republished in March 2008 and that’s where it sits chronologically now.

Now comes a post in response to comments from the Harbaugh post to refute a fictional statistic.

"We remain in discussions with five major distributors," Delany said. "Some negotiations are pretty mature. Some are pretty immature, in particular those with Comcast. We're in the fourth quarter for our launch, but we're in the first quarter (in negotiations) with Comcast.

Gap filling. There is not going to be an appreciable Appalachian State preview in this space, though after last year's Ball State near-debacle I assure you there will be a few brief, respectful paragraphs expressing deep concern at the possibility of humiliating defeat. So I encourage you to visit Varsity Blue or NKOTB Maize and Blog for your Mountaineer knowledge needs. 5'7" starting corner! Must... remain... respectful... Spock.

As far as the strength and conditioning program is concerned, Mundy says West Virginia’s program is much more intense than Michigan’s. Other players that have transferred to West Virginia have said similar things in the past, explaining that at some other places the players coming into the program are physically bigger and more explosive. West Virginia develops it.

Unverified Voracity Killed the Internet Star. Brian says he will be making weekly appearances on Channel 4’s “Sports Final Edition”. That’s a lot of exposure in this blog’s young life. Also Marques Slocoum posts on Facebook...not that post (but maybe it exposes “that” post?).

Team preview: Purdue. Interesting names include Curtis Painter, Dustin Keller, and Cliff Avril. Brian predicts 8-4 and the Alamo Bowl. They would finish 8-5, winning the Motor City Bowl.

It is very likely that there will be no deal between BTN and Comcast for the start of the season.

Mailbag post that is mostly about BTN vs. Comcast. Although there is also an interesting discussion of Diallo Johnson’s return ability. Interesting that Charles Woodson’s kick returning was remembered as the most exciting 2 yards in football.

August 24 - Friday

Blogpoll Roundtable looks at the most overrated and underrated teams for the coming season. Mostly interesting, at this point in time is a link to this post about Matthew Stafford.

Brian offers some contingency plans in case there is no agreement with Comcast for the first game, but does it really matter?

it's not like Appalachian State or EMU is really in doubt anyway.

August 25 - Saturday

Short recap from fan day. Most significantly, Jason Gingell will be kicking field goals.

August 27 - Monday

Monday recruitin’ has excerpts from an OLSM vs. Cass Tech recap from Varsity Blue. The game Featured commits Will Campbell and Boubacar Cissoko and ‘09 target Dion Sims.

Michigan preview: Offense. This starts with an interesting telling of Brian’s experience in Columbus the previous November. As far as the offense, there is much hope and confidence in Henne, Hart, Manningham, and Long.

Stupid Predictions

Brandon Minor gets 20% of the available carries.

Alex Mitchell manages to fend off challengers for his job.

Henne is invited to New York for the Heisman thingy, but does not win.

Massey spends most of the year in front of Butler on the depth chart but Butler ends up with more catches and is the defacto starter by Wisconsin.

Manningham: 1340, 15 TD.

Michigan is 15th in total offense; 12th in scoring.

Unverified Voracity Preps. So it’s been at least ten years since Miss South Carolina eloquently spoke about education in the Iraq. She is going to Appalachian St. This is seen as another reason to poke fun at this week’s opponent.

This is the reality of every season. Predicting the top three teams in the Big Ten to go 10-2 every year would probably be more accurate in the long run but it would also be a soulless exercise... and if college football has anything, it's got soul. Official on the record offering: 11-1. You have my permission to round up a posse and hunt me down if the team implodes.

Expectations

"He says, no varnish can hide the grain of the wood; and that the more varnish you put on, the more the grain will express itself."

- Herbert Pocket (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)

The 2017 Pre-season Ratings

With the 2017 season bearing down upon us, it seems a good time to have another quick pass at the pre-season ratings from the fancy stats perspective. To that end, this diary analyzes the preseason Advanced Stats-based ratings for Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten. The difference is this time around the diary features a look at results inferred from Ed Feng’s The Power Rank, which came out on July 5. Most readers are already familiar with the two principal resources that fed the first edition of this diary which was posted in February: Bill Connelly's S&P+ Ratings (of FB Outsiders and SBNation FB Study Hall fame) and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) Ratings.

The rub with these initial, preseason ratings is that they apply a completely different set of metrics than do the in-season ratings, which are based on play-by-play or possession-by-possession datasets. A discussion of the formulation of the S&P+ and FPI pre-season metrics can be found in the first edition. The Power Rank pre-season metrics consist of two factors that are also included in FPI and S&P+ (team performance over the past 4 years, and returning starters) along with a third factor that is unique (turnovers). PR does not include factors related to recruiting or coaching talent, which FPI and S&P+ use.

In the end, ratings are established for all 130 FBS division teams, where the final rating is scaled to expected points better (or worse) than the average FBS division team at a neutral site. Simple enough. So without further ado, following is quick rundown of the ratings for your 2017 Big Ten football teams.

B1G Ratings, from The Power Rank

Rank

Team

Rating

4

Ohio State

16.9

8

Wisconsin

13.6

11

Penn State

12.0

28

Iowa

7.2

30

Michigan

7.1

32

Northwestern

6.9

40

Minnesota

5.2

52

Nebraska

2.4

53

Indiana

2.4

72

Michigan State

-0.6

77

Maryland

-2.0

104

Purdue

-8.1

105

Rutgers

-8.1

114

Illinois

-9.3

At this point it’s worth noting some remarks offered by Dr. Feng in his original post:

“Ohio State seems a bit low at #4, although QB J.T. Barrett and the offensive line struggled last season.”

“Penn State had a spectacular season in 2016. However, my model doesn’t like them since they haven’t been elite over the 4 year window the model considers.”

“Michigan. Can we talk about them later? Let’s just say their preseason rank seems low, way low. They will require an adjustment before I release their win total.”

So, Dr. Feng’s take would appear to be that all three should be slotted higher than they are (to varying degrees, one would hope). But, since the Power Rank has not offered a win total as yet for Michigan, this diary will move ahead and infer one from his published ratings. In the meantime, you can read a detailed explanation from Dr. Feng as to just why his model might not be entirely applicable to Michigan in 2017.

Schedules Matter … Big Time

At this point, a basic approach might be to just pull out the Big Ten teams and look at their respective ratings, as in table 1. Those more foolish than you might jump to the conclusion that the team with the highest rating would be expected to win its division and the conference. However, as Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast, my friend.” We all know by now, in the aftermath of the B1G moving to 9 conference games, that not all schedules are created equal, and that some provide more advantageous paths of glory than others. This is not just because of inter-divisional opponents drawn, but also because half the teams play 5 home conference games while the other half play only 4. That’s a 6-point year-to-year swing based on the scheduling constraint alone. Thus, the next step is to evaluate each team's schedule and respective matchups, and determine the point spreads therein using the various ratings, adjusting for whether games are played at home or on the road. Simple enough. So then, let’s just sum up the wins and losses and have look at the final standings. After working out tie-breakers, determining which teams should be meeting in the Big Ten Championship Game straight-forward. As a bonus, since the ratings of each team have already been scraped up, let’s just calculate the average rating of each team’s opponents, and call it something like the Quick-and-Dirty Strength of Schedule (SoS), and rank order them while we’re at it. Hmmm. The tables below don’t paint the prettiest of pictures, at least not compared to last season, but there you have it.

Projected Standings, from The Power Rank

B1G East

B1G

Overall

W

L

SoS

Rk

W

L

SoS

Rk

Ohio State

9

0

1.6

13

12

0

0.7

9

Penn State

8

1

3.9

5

11

1

1.6

7

Michigan

6

3

3.8

6

8

4

2.0

6

Indiana

5

4

2.7

9

8

4

0.0

10

Michigan State

2

7

5.6

2

3

9

3.9

1

Maryland*

1

8

6.5

1

3

9

3.0

2

Rutgers

1

8

2.7

10

3

9

-0.4

12

* winner of tie breaker

B1G West

B1G

Overall

W

L

SoS

Rk

W

L

SoS

Rk

Wisconsin

9

0

1.0

14

12

0

-0.7

13

Northwestern

7

2

1.9

12

10

2

0.0

11

Minnesota

6

3

4.0

3

9

3

1.2

8

Iowa

5

4

2.0

11

8

4

-1.1

14

Nebraska

3

6

3.7

7

5

7

2.2

5

Illinois

1

8

4.0

4

2

10

2.4

4

Purdue

0

9

3.4

8

0

12

2.7

3

Just to digest this a little, what is clear is that not only is OSU one of the highest rated teams in all the land, it also has one of the easiest conference schedules in the B1G. What many may have imagined what would be the alternate “easier” year for UM - with OSU and MSU at home - is not the boon it once was since now UM goes on the road to PSU and Wisconsin. That said, UM’s schedule challenges are still about average both in-conference and overall. Alas, poor Maryland and Sparty. They alternately have the most difficult conference and overall schedules. As for the B1GW, Wisconsin’s schedule could not be much easier, which is a far cry from the midseason gauntlet it faced last season. At this point you’ve got to like the Badgers chances of blowing through the season unscathed and returning to Indy for the B1GCG. That assumes Wisconsin can get past those sneaky Wildcats, who have also drawn one of the less challenging schedules both in the B1G and overall. More on that later.

Obviously, the win-or-lose nature of divisional standings does not discriminate between contests of evenly-matched opponents and ruthless clubbings of baby seals. A win’s a win. However, just consider for a moment that the top two teams in the B1GW have 2 of the 3 easiest overall schedules in the entire conference. Good for them, but it’s the level of competition between opponents - in the form of a point spread - that brings color, subtlety and nuance to the fore, particularly when the College Football Playoff comes into play. A point spread, of course, is just a reflection of the odds, or likely outcome, of a game. So, this is where the rubber really meets the road when digesting equivalent points-based ratings such as the Power Rank, S&P+ or ESPN’s FPI. Is Michigan really just an 8 or 9-win team in 2017? That’s a lot of losses, but after dropping 3 games by a combined 5 points as we all witnessed in 2016, it doesn’t take much.

Turning Spreads Into Likelihoods

The following two tables of tables show the schedule details for each team in the B1G East & West divisions that inform the predicted standings in the previous section. The tables include the Power Rank ratings-based point spreads and attendant win probability (links to the FPI and S&P+ results are also provided below). A green-yellow-red pseudo-colormap is also applied to quickly give a qualitative indication of where each team faces its greatest challenges, how those challenges stack up, and by comparison, which teams have a more or less difficult row to hoe. Green indicates a favorable point spread; yellow, a competitive matchup; and red, an unfavorable margin. The last table in the group simply shows a rank-ordering of the divisional teams based on their expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of conference standings based on projected wins, losses and tie-breakers.

B1GW Schedule Likelihoods

Total Win Probabilities

After computing projected win probabilities for all the games in each team's schedule based on the ratings-based point spreads (including a +3 point rating adjustment for the home team), it's possible to compute the distribution of total expected wins at the end of the season. The one vagary in this analysis is in regard to FCS opponents. Since neither S&P+ nor FPI provide ratings for FCS teams, I've taken the liberty of assigning the lowest available rating of -30 and -24 to FCS teams, respectively. I can already imagine the comments on this nugget in light of NDSU’s upset of Iowa last season.

There are only three B1G vs. FCS games this season. They are as follows:

Maryland vs. Towson

Rutgers vs. Morgan State

Minnesota vs. Indiana State

The B1G East Distributions

Based on the Power Rank ratings for the B1G East, the teams can be grouped into three classes: the Contenders (Ohio State and Penn State), the Bubble (Michigan and Indiana) and the Bottom Feeders (Michigan State, Rutgers and Maryland). The Contenders are those teams that by one rating or the other, are shown to have peak-win modes within 2 total expected wins of the top rated team. The Bubble consists of those teams within 1 total expected wins of being bowl-eligible. The Bottom Feeders are the teams with few prospects of gridiron glory or post-season hijinks.

Below are the charts of the overall and in-conference total win distributions for the B1GE based on the S&P+ ratings (with links to the FPI charts), followed by a brief digest of each team’s results.

Overall

In-Conference

Rutgers

What can be said about Rutgers? OK, how about this: they have newish coach with some OSU heritage who may be able to attract a few recruits with the prospect of early playing time. Otherwise, it's not a pretty picture for the Scarlet Knights. Basically, they're staring at a 7% (S&P+) to 15% (PR) chance of not having a losing season, including a near freebie from Morgan State. These are worse prospect than last season. Their most likely record per PR is about 4-8, or a shade above 4 wins, and are double-digit dogs in six of their games. It still doesn't look like there's any chance that the '14 win over Michigan is going to be dislodged from the Pantheon of Rutgers Classics anytime soon.

Maryland

Despite D.J. Durkin’s auspicious beginning by qualifying for a bowl game, it appears the Terpds will be backsliding in 2017. The Terpds’ chances of not having a losing season ranges between 10% (S&P+) and 25% (PR), including an FCS freebie from Towson. Like Rutgers, Maryland’s most-likely record is 4-8, but on the high side of 4 wins, and are double-digit dogs in five of their games. Still, here’s where D.J. Durkin’s motivational skills may effectively put a shine on the Terpds and continue to make progress on the recruiting trail.

Michigan State

Rounding out the B1GE Bottom Feeders as per the Power Rank is Sparty. Alas, things might otherwise be looking up in East Lansing if it weren’t sinking into a quagmire of player misconduct. Yeesh. On the bright side, the chance of Sparty improving its regular season win total of 3 from last year ranges from 79% (PR) to 94% (S&P+). Sparty’s most likely record takes a relative jump up to 5-7. Yet, PR says volatility will continue to be the hallmark of this season for Sparty, with 5 spreads of less than one score. Sparty is also a double-digit dog in 3 games. In the end, this probabilistic “lumpiness” of its schedule works against Sparty in a big way, such that its final record works out to ... 3-9 (2-7). Can I get a “Sparty Nooo!”?

Indiana

The data says Indiana is still looking like the perennial Bubble team, but may have some surprising company thereabouts this season. That said, i remains to be seen whether the wholesale elimination of its coaching staff sends this team from precipice of chaos into the abyss. Still, the Hoosiers preseason numbers have improved over 2016, with most likely records of 6-6 per the Power Rank and FPI, and 7-5 per S&P+, and with no FCS cupcakes on its schedule. Yet, the probabilistic “lumpiness” of its schedule has the Hoosiers finishing 8-4 (5-4). In that sense, with a solid shot at post-season glory, the fire in the belly of the Hoosiers may well remain stoked. The threat of chaos may have made its exit with Kevin Wilson, but it would still be prudent to not take Indiana lightly.

Michigan

With the exodus of so much talent and experience from Team 137, it appears that the fancy-stats love affair with Michigan under Harbaugh has come to an end. The most likely records range from 9-3 (S&P+) to 7-5 (the Power Rank), but with a strong lean in the PR distribution toward 8 wins. Michigan gets just a modest beneficial effect from its schedule, as the games break to an 8-4 (5-4) record. Michigan is favored by double-digits in 8 games by both S&P+ and FPI, but in only 5 games by PR. PR also shows M with margins of less than one score in 5 games, which means volatility. Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State at this point are favored by PR with UM being more than a one-score dog to PSU and Wisconsin. The opener against Florida looks like one of the closest matchups on the season, and so will be critical from the standpoint of getting UM off the schneid and setting the tone for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the tussle with fellow bubble team Indiana is M’s tightest match of the year, with a margin of only 1.6 points.

Here are some sobering statistical observations:

Chances of Michigan improving on last season (i.e. winning 11 or more): 1-12%.

Chances of a Michigan losing season: less than 2% to about 11%.

Chances of Michigan going undefeated: less than 2%.

Penn State

Stemming largely from its late season push to the B1G Championship and a Rose Bowl berth, Penn State appears to have finagled its way into second banana status in at least the B1GE, if not the entire conference. The most likely record for PSU is 9-3 as per PR, or 10-2 by both S&P+ and FPI. This is founded largely on the strength of its returning production in the form of 2nd-team All B1G QB Trace McSorley and B1G Offensive POTY RB Saquon Barkley. Yet, the probabilistic “lumpiness” of its actual schedule pushes PSU to a remarkable 11-1 (8-1) finish. The Power Rank says the Nits are favored by double-digits in half of its games, plus they’re favored over UM at home by more than one score. PSU is an underdog in only one game, at OSU, by a margin of a TD and a 2-point conversion. That said, the Nits will have a couple of closely contested match-ups in Iowa and Northwestern before UM shows up in Happy Valley. If the Nits can get past those and then down the Wolverines, they will be flying high into Columbus with the B1GCG and a CFP invitation on the table.

Some incredible statistical observations:

Chances of PSU improving on last season (i.e. winning 11 or more): 10-29%.

Chances of PSU having a losing season: 5% to vanishingly small.

Chances of PSU going undefeated: 1-6%.

Ohio State

Not many teams rate ahead of PSU in returning production, but one of them happens to be Ohio State. Indeed, this is no surprise since OSU was one of the youngest teams in the country in 2016 - the surprise was their coming off of 2015’s loss of talent to make the CFP. Like the other ratings, the Power Rank has OSU poised to separate itself from PSU and UM, with a most likely record of 10-2 overall. Still, the probabilistic “lumpiness” principal also works largely to the Buckeyes’ benefit, having them finishing undefeated overall. OSU is not only favored in all of its games by all three ratings, but by double-digits in no less than 8 games (PR). OSU’s toughest opponent per PR is Oklahoma in week 2, who is less than a one-score underdog. Even so, an early loss to the Sooners would do little to hurt the Buckeyes’ CFP prospects. In conference, OSU shows a mode of 8 wins (with a strong lean toward 7), which is incrementally greater than the 6-win modes of PSU and the 5 for UM, making OSU the team to beat. There’s not a great deal of solace in the fact that the Buckeyes come to Ann Arbor in 2017. They’re still favored by nearly a touchdown.

Other sobering statistical observations:

Chances of tOSU improving on last season (i.e. going undefeated): 7-32%.

Chances of tOSU losing 3 or more games: 6-38%.

Chances of tOSU having a losing season: vanishingly small.

The B1G West Distributions

In the B1G West, four teams might be classified as a Contender: Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa. Yet clearly, the Badgers have a pronounced separation from the other three. Holding down the B1GW Bubble is Nebraska, with a peak-wins mode that is 4 wins back. Meanwhile, the Bottom Feeders (Illinois and Purdue) pick up from where they were left for dead last season, promising to carry on like zombies looking for something to bite, but more often than not getting the goo smashed out of their skulls.

Following are the charts of the overall and in-conference total win distributions for the B1GW based on the S&P+ ratings (with links to the FPI charts), followed by a brief digest of each team’s results.

In-Conference

Purdue

It's just about the same story for Purdue as with Rutgers, except maybe even more godforsaken. PR shows a most likely record of 3-8, the same as S&P+ and FPI. That’s what not having an FCS team on the schedule does for you if you’re a bottom feeder. The Boilers are double-digit dogs in 7 games, and at a deficit larger than one score in another two! They’re chances of a losing season overall range from 94% to 97%, with the chances of going completely winless registering in the 1%-3% range. Suffice it to say, the Boilermakers’ prospects for 2017 cover the entire gamut of losing. Somewhat ironically, Purdue is favored in only one game, which brings us to...

Illinois

To its credit, the Illini have no FCS creampuff this season, is favored in two games, and are double-digit dogs in only half of its games. Beyond that, in three more games the Illini are at greater than one-score deficits. The chances for Illinois to go bowl-ing range from 4% to 12%. In the aggregate, Illinois’ distributions are almost indistinguishable from Purdue’s. Together, they define the bottom of the B1G West, which is about one win less overall than the B1G East.

Nebraska

Holding down the B1GW Bubble are the Cornhuskers, whose best chance to break back into the B1GCG again may have been last season. Like both S&P+ and FPI, PR places them at a perfectly mediocre 6-6 record, with about equal chances of doing better or worse. As such, PR gives the Huskers a 65% chance of reaching bowl eligibility.

Iowa

It would appear that the Power Rank is rather smitten with the Hawkeyes. In lieu of predicting its continued regression from the millennial celestial alignment that took place in 2015, PR estimates that Iowa is most likely to maintain an 8-4 record, with a strong lean toward 7-5. The scheduling breakdown reinforces the 8-4 record, and so the road rises up to meet the Hawkeyes, taking them into the pool of contenders for the B1GW Title. PR also likes Iowa to hold onto Floyd of Rosedale in its trophy matchup with Minnesota. Iowa is an underdog in 4 games, but in none by double-digits.

Minnesota

New Head Coach P.J. Fleck may be just the sort of high-character persona who can assuage the tumult that swept through Minny at the end of last season. Regardless, Fleck steps into a situation that is otherwise not nearly as dire as most of the others B1G teams that have changed coaches in the last year. Like the Hawkeyes, the Power Rank is smitten with the Gophers as well. PR results show a most likely record of 8-4, with a strong lean toward 7-5. In fact, the Gophers’ distribution is nearly indistinguishable from the Hawkeyes’. The probabilistic “lumpiness” breaks like a wind that’s always at the Gophers’ backs, to the tune of a 9-3 (6-3) finish. Fleck just needs to get the team to focus on its oarsmanship.

Northwestern

Fitz is dutifully rebuilding this squad, and coupled with the return of 3rd-year starting Jr. QB Clayton Thorson and B1G R-OTY Austin Carr a cadre of experienced receivers that combined for 120+ catches, the Cats are due to get their share of highlights. The Power Rank essentially splits the middle in its assessment of the Wildcats 2017 prospects, predicting a most likely record of 8-4. The probabilistic “lumpiness” of its schedule, however, shines warmly upon the Wildcats’ faces, working out to a 10-2 (7-2) final record. The Cats are underdogs in only 2 conference games, whereas the Gophers and Hawks are underdogs in four apiece. In the end, this puts Northwestern in slightly closer contention with Wisconsin than either Minnesota or Iowa.

Wisconsin

What a difference a year makes! Of all the teams in the B1G, it would appear that Wisconsin will see the greatest benefit of the swing in both scheduling constraints and interdivisional draws. Not only do the Badgers have five B1G home games, but three of them are Northwestern, Iowa and Michigan - its strongest intra- and inter-divisional opponents. Add to that Maryland and Indiana, plus OOC’s Utah State, FAU and BYU, and it’s no wonder the Power Rank predicts the Badgers’ most likely record is 10-2 (with a slight lean toward 9-3). Yet, Wisconsin is the only team other than Ohio State (who is not on the Badgers’ schedule this year) that is favored in all of its games. And so it goes that the probabilistic “lumpiness” of its schedule falls gently upon the Badgers’ fields, and little W’s pop up like peonies in every possible place. PR has the Badgers as double-digit favorites in 5 games, and one-score favorites in 6 more. The only opponent within one score of them? Your ever-lovin’ Maize’n’Blue. The Gophers, against whom the Badgers close the season. By all accounts, Wisconsin looks to run away with the B1G West and may well have punched its ticket to Indy by the time the Wolverines shows up in Madison on November 18.

Some enviable statistical observations:

Chances of Bucky going undefeated: 6%-13%.

Chances of Bucky improving on last season (win 11 or more): 24%-43%.

Chances of Bucky losing 3 or more games: 26%-47%.

Chances of Bucky having a losing season: vanishingly small.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, based on the ratings provided by the Power Rank, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

This series examines the probable individual matchups Michigan expects to face against particular opponents on one of Michigan’s key running plays and one of its key passing plays, as well as defensively against a couple of the opponent’s key plays (assuming first-sting personnel in a base defensive alignment).

It was January 1, 2012. The football gods had smiled upon the Michigan Wolverines that evening, and somehow they had prevailed in a hard-fought Sugar Bowl against probably the last of Frank Beamer’s great Virginia Tech teams. Michigan had claimed that win even though the Hokies had largely controlled the game that night—but the Wolverines had hung around, capitalized on VT mistakes, and made just enough plays for their puck pigskin luck to count. So they were Sugar Bowl champions, and it was easy to think that Michigan Football, after five long years of suffering, was truly “back.”

Recruits seemed to believe it. Five weeks after that Sugar Bowl victory, Brady Hoke signed the country’s #6 recruiting class (per 247) class and then, just a few weeks later, accepted verbal commitments from eight top 2013 prospects on a single February weekend. The media seemed to believe it. The preseason AP poll gave the Wolverines a #8 ranking and ABC slotted Michigan’s Jerryworld opener against #2 and defending national champion Alabama for prime time on the season’s inaugural Saturday. Even Vegas seemed to kind of believe it—pegging Michigan as a two TD ‘dog, just on the edge of plausibility.

I wanted to believe it too. So when the inevitable emails from my old A2 crew about tickets and flights and lodging in Dallas started to hit my inbox, I wanted in on that action. Michigan didn’t necessarily have to beat Alabama. Being “back” meant, to me, that Michigan could at least compete against any team in the country. Michigan hadn’t actually beaten Texas in the 2005 Rose Bowl, or Ohio State in Football Armageddon, or USC in the 2006 consolation game. But those kinds of losses—close, thrilling games against tip-top competition--certainly hadn’t been the ones Michigan needed to come “back” from. It was the blowouts, like Dennis Dixon or Mississippi State. It was the humiliating upsets, like Toledo at the Big House or that other one in 2007. It was even the embarrassing victories, like UMass in 2009 or that Illinois game (you know the one).

And I just let those emails sit.

I didn’t want to come out and say it, but deep down inside, I knew Michigan Football wasn’t anywhere near “back” in 2012. Deep inside I knew that team didn’t stand a chance against Saban’s juggernaut, and that if I went to that game, I’d spend at least the fourth quarter anxiously awaiting the clock to run out and then be bummed-out all weekend. So I didn’t really want to go to Dallas. I let those emails sit.

. . .

Michigan opens the 2017 season back in Jerryworld, and this time around there isn’t any question about whether the Wolverines are back. If there is a paper tiger in this year’s matchup, it’s the team on the opposite sideline. The Florida Gators have won two consecutive SEC East titles, but seemingly by default. While the West has risen, the once mighty East has descended into an annual orgy of self-destruction, unrealized hype, and squandered talent. Somehow Florida, despite a long-term affliction with inexorable offensive anemia, has managed to linger atop this miserable heap the past two cycles, only to then have its heart ritually yanked from its chest by Mr. Saban in the league championship games. This year, even the Gators’ mighty defense turns over—with only three starters returning from the #4 defense per S&P+ last season. That unit has been consistently good, and certainly doesn’t need to prove it’s “back.” But the question we’re asking is, are they still there?

Let’s take a look at some matchups.

When Michigan has the ball…

1. 27 Power O

It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these and it’s the first game of the season with some new faces on offense, so let’s start out with Harbaugh’s base running play, good ole Power O. For beginners, Power O is a venerable rushing play on which the offense tries to create a rushing lane outside the playside tackle and uses a backside guard as a lead blocker. The hallmarks of Power O are a double-team on the playside DT, a kick-out block, usually from a fullback or H-back type player, on the defensive force player (typically the end-man-on-line-of-scrimmage or “EMLOS”), and (relatively) easy downblocks for the remaining OL. Florida hired defensive coordinator Randy Shannon in the off-season; Shannon has historically been a 4-3 Over guy so I’ll assume that’s essentially what he’ll install at UF, even if he may be doing the viper/star/hybridspaceplayer thing with one of his LBs.

There are too many new players on the field for both teams to assess this with any real confidence, but Florida is at least starting juniors and RS sophomores with significant playing experience. That gives them the nod with Michigan starting three new OL.

2. Semi (Three Verticals)

Randy Shannon at the University of Florida just screams Cover 2 Man. Like I want to wake up tomorrow morning and it’s 2001 and the letters “YTM” haven’t been thought of yet but would signal something badass and terrifying if they had. Homie ain’t playing no zone.

Zach Gentry scored a long TD in the spring game on a four verticals play in which the defense appeared to have busted. But four verticals is best run against Cover 3, with the four deep routes stressing the three deep defenders. One of Steve Spurrier’s favorite old Cover 2 beaters, which he called “Semi,” uses three vertical receivers—two on deep sideline routes to occupy the deep safeties, while the third receiver attacks the open middle on a deep post. Does an old, 5-step-drop Fun’N’Gun play seem like something that would be appropriate to pull out against Randy Shannon’s Gator defense? Why yes. Yes it does.

Shown here from under center, the QB takes a 5-step drop and reads the high safety. If the high safety drops into a deep half (as expected), then the QB’s progression is outside-in, starting with the Z receiver. If the low safety helps the cornerback bracket the Z, then he won’t be available to pick up the U receiver on the deep post. If the low safety does pick up the U, then the Z has single coverage on the edge. The back will release to the flat as a safety valve. OTOH, if the high safety stays in the middle of the field or rotates to the strong side, then the QB progresses outside-in from the X receiver, who should have single coverage. If the X can’t beat his man, the second read is to the U (who should be cutting underneath the high safety on a dig), and then to the late-releasing Y in the flat.

QB Wilton Speight: Five-step drop; read high safety to determine which side to target, read WR-Slot-Flat

TB Chris Evans: Pass protect, then release to flat

Advantage: Florida

Michigan has three unproven linemen who will need to protect Speight, and no proven receivers who will need to get open against a very good Florida secondary. The UF linebackers could be a weakness, but this play doesn’t really pick on them much.

When Florida has the ball…

3. Inside Zone Read

So, Florida’s offensive coordinator is none other than former Michigan OC Doug Nussmeier, who you may remember from 2014: Year of the Clusterfuck. Nuss, as well as McElwain, are long-time single-back offense guys and Nuss in particular is a constraint theory devotee. This basically means that he likes to spread the defense out with extra wide receivers to create running lanes inside, then attack with his base play: inside zone. If he can run that for 4+ yards a pop, great—the defense will need to overplay inside zone and then he can punish them through the air. Of course, if Nuss can’t establish inside zone—like he couldn’t at Michigan—then the whole thing doesn’t really go so well.

That’s where Malik Zaire’s running ability could make a big difference. Florida isn’t likely to have much success against the Michigan defensive front running 10-on-11. But with Zaire at QB, the Gators can add option reads to their inside zone play and present a much more dangerous threat.

Remember zone blocking rules: covered OL block the DL covering them, uncovered OL move to the second level, and the running back looks for crease and then makes a single cut to hit is. But here, Florida effectively blocks the backside DE by optioning him off. If that DE chases the tailback, the QB keeps the ball and has clear sailing to the outside.

Last year’s DL stars have moved onto the NFL, but Michigan has reached next-man-up status at that position. They face a veteran Florida O-line that hasn’t produced in the run game—and as Michigan fans have seen, another year or two of experience doesn’t necessarily translate to a significant performance improvement up front. Zaire will help, but probably not enough.

4. Y-Stick

Well, I wasn’t going to watch the entire Florida spring game just to find a play. So it’s fortunate that Felipe Franks had some success with Y-Stick in the first quarter; Y-stick is a popular concept these days that you’ll see in pretty much any offense—and one that teams will probably call often against Don Brown and his tendency to blitz the ever-loving hell out of you.

The concept here is for the Z receiver to release outside and carry the cornerback deep, then flood the curl/flat zone underneath by pairing the Y-receiver’s “stick” route with a “shoot” route from a running back (B). Here we see the front side of the play against Cover 2 Man. The corner will run with the Z receiver and the safety will drop for a deep half (to help on the Z over top). That leaves the WLB, with responsibility for the curl/flat zone underneath, in a 1-on-2 situation. If he takes the stick route, then the back is alone in the flat. If he follows the back, that leaves the stick route open.

Of course, part of the reason for Y-Stick’s popularity is that it exploits a structural vulnerability in Cover 2. If the offense catches the defense in Cover 2 and calls this play, the main goal for the defense will be to mitigate the gain. But what if the defense is playing Cover 1 or Cover 4 (a.k.a. “quarters”)? In that case, there is a defender to cover each receiver and the inside-outside stretch doesn’t work.

This speaks to the importance of disguising coverages, and to having a first-rate defensive coordinator who can both adroitly adjust his calls to the threats being presented, and effectively teach the different techniques and concepts to his young players. May Don Brown live for 1,000 years.

Assignments (let’s give M a chance on this play, and say they are in Cover 1):

I will call the matchup of Florida’s young receivers against Michigan’s young defensive backs a wash for now, but otherwise the field seems to slant in favor of the Maize & Blue when Florida goes to the air. M has a significant edge in the trenches with its superior pass rushers against the mediocre Florida line, though this is mitigated somewhat on Y-Stick—a quick, 3-step drop passing play. And M has another big edge with its defensive in year 2 of Don Brown’s scheme against Malik Zaire in his first game at Florida.

Preach Marta, preach. It doesn’t take much bourbon—relatively speaking, of course—to understand this lyric. See, Marta understands that ain’t no way that we can actually be happy. We must either lower our standards or move on to the next spin of a janky assed roulette wheel.

Yeah he’s got a good heart and he’s trying real hard to bring home those dubyas and rings we both so desperately want. But, even if it happens, who knows if he’ll even be there next week? Dude is just going to move on up and fail at baseball or marry some skinny chic strutting on a runway somewhere. If you don’t love the one you have, then you’re wishing for the one you want. If you actually do love the one you have, then don’t get your hopes up that it will last. There’s only two kinds of men and both let you down. Thus sayeth the gospel of Marta Ren & The Groovelvets.

Don't take me and Marta’s word for it:

Speight was lethal, and terrible, and seemed to have little in between. He was very good for ten throws against Iowa and then fell off a cliff, and that was a microcosm of his play and the season. –mgoblog

In fairness to Wilton and QBs everywhere though, this lyric isn't fair. Football fans are impossible to appease. The best evaluation systems not only use absolute scales, but they also use relative scales and provide sufficient space to consider context. Most football fans inherently understand that putting up big numbers against a weak team must be taken with a grain of salt. The problem often is that a commensurate grain of salt isn't usually given to small numbers against strong teams. The comment often is: but what did you do against so and so? This assessment is almost always absolute. And context? Please, if Herbstreit doesn’t talk about it on Gameday then it doesn’t matter.

Hey everyone! Two years ago my wife & I opened our doors to any Michigan fans & MGoBloggers in the Chicago area wanting to come over to watch the football games on our projector for the MSU, OSU, & Florida games. We didn't do this last season because we were having a baby mid-season, but we are bringing it back for several games this fall. We are opening our house for the following games:
9/2 vs Florida
10/7 vs MSU
10/21 vs PSU
11/18 vs Wisconsin
11/25 vs OSU
Bowl TBD

If you're interested in coming (or returning for those of you that came 2 years ago) hit me up either on Twitter @MikeCohodes or email me at mikecohodes (at) gmail (dot) com for details. Also, one of you from 2 years ago left your UM cooler at my house, I still have it so you can get it back.

Hope to see you there!

Note to mods- I know this is more of a board topic than diary but I'm trying to maximize the length of time this stays visible on the front page. Please move if you need to.

Haven't posted in a bit but I did read the Jourdan Lewis stuff and I thought this might be timely. Its too long for a forum topic but I'll try to be succinct.

1. Jourdan Lewis Character - Very Good. First time misdemeanor DV defendants are always offered what is called a 'deferred sentence' pursuant to MCL 769.4a. Its kind of like a double secret probation where they send the defendant to anger management classes (also known as "Man Hater" classes) for about 6 months and if defendant doesn't test dirty for booze or drugs and doesn't get any more criminal charges the case is eventually dismissed. Those classes can be helpful though, if for no other reason than they can teach someone to simply walk away from an argument before it gets to the tipping point.

Not only did Jourdan not take this offer, but also he said 'no' to any type of offer to some less serious, Mickey Mouse type of misdemeanor with a similar treatment. There are some other pre-trial facts that evidence his high character but with the NFL not having weighed in yet those will be kept private. Suffice it to say that if you knew those you would almost certainly think he is and always was truly innocent, not just not guilty.

At trial the complaining witness (not going to call a fake witness a 'victim') was not believable, and in particular her recorded statements came off as drama - her 9-1-1 call was like she'd witnessed some horrible crime, not gotten pushed away using pillows. Same with the body cam recording of her statement on the night in question. There was evidence that she had slapped JL multiple times. She also conveniently cried during some parts of direct exam and that came off as manufactured.

Jourdan was contacted that same night and instantly manned-up and met with the cops. He took no time to manipulate or plan out his statement, and instead gave a sincere and calm statement. No need for him to take the stand as the prosecutor was foolish enough to put his statement to the police into evidence.

2. Can He Sue Her For Malicious Prosecution/Abuse of Process - Yes, but its way difficult and rarely worth the time, effort and money. You have to have the right case facts and a complaining witness whose lies are able to be shown to a jury. I had such a case earlier this year and it worked out well for the client, but that is literally one in a thousand. I don't know what JL plans, but I'd be shocked if he pursued her for anything.

3. Domestic Violence for us Regular Folks - No doubt it is a real thing and a serious thing, but like many causes can sometimes be not only overblown, but also used as a weapon to hurt others. That said, I am willing to bet that the majority of you reading this have been the either the victim or the aggressor in a DV incident. You're thinking 'no way, Jose'. But remember that time you threw your keys at your ex, or s/he threw them at you? How about when you closed the door on his/her foot, while yelling at them? Or when you grabbed his/her shoulder to get their phone out of their hand? And a few of you unfortunately more severe than that.

I mention this only because if you are in a relationship that has these elements its probably time to not be in that relationship. If nothing else, please get some help. Frequent factors in these cases are substance abuse, fiinancial issues, depression and/or mental health issues but there is help for those things. If children are involved then you have got to get them clear of the situation as the damage it can do to them could be disastrous - a multi-generational nightmare. Don't let that happen.