Whatever happens in South Africa the honeymoon is over for Fabio Capello and English football

As Fabio Capello checks his hand-luggage and culls his spectacles collection for the final 23 pairs that will make the trip to South Africa, two things occur about the Italian’s reign.

First, whatever happens in the next six weeks the events of the last month mean that the longest honeymoon in English football history is already over.

Second, regardless of the outcome of contract talks with Capello due to conclude before the team depart this evening, the FA urgently need to define a clear strategy should the Italian file for divorce in July.

The need for a Plan B is pressing because, after two bliss-filled years, the strains in Capello’s relationship with our fickle national game are starting to show.

The Italian began his reign impeccably, his unimpeachable CV silencing doubts about his nationality while his carefully constructed disciplinarian persona did the same for a complacent squad's chirruping mobiles.

There were rules, not just about footwear and time-keeping, but for selection, where form and fitness would be paramount. Above all, Capello demanded focus and concentration on the job.

In the last few weeks however he has bent his own rules. First there was the Capello Index, a misjudged endorsement that suggested that the Don might turn out to be as grasping as his predecessor-but-one Sven-Goran Eriksson.

Then came an apparent flirtation with Internazionale president Massimo Moratti whose advances were not immediately rejected, leading to an awkward stand-off over Capello’s contract, scheduled to be resolved today.

Yesterday’s final squad also revealed a flexibility not granted the players. Gareth Barry travels to South Africa injured, while two of the stars of the season, Michael Dawson and Darren Bent, miss out in favour of the form-free pair Emile Heskey and Matthew Upson.

The squad announcement itself was also hapless, if well-intentionaed. Capello or his consigliere Franco Baldini wanted to speak to all the discarded players personally, but this led to inevitable leaks before the creaking FA website confirmed the selection at 4pm. If anyone could have got away with pinning the names of the final 23 to the dressing room wall, it was Capello.

The Italian has of course earned the right to do as he pleases having steered England through the first stress-free qualification in 20 years, and if he guides England to the semi-finals and beyond in South Africa we will happily renew our vows. Should the team be eliminated earlier though the events of the last month will make the post-mortem far less comfortable for Capello.

All of which makes the FA’s need for a clear and unambiguous strategy to replace him more urgent. Capello is contracted until 2012 and the FA is expected to confirm today that a mutually-agreed break clause allowing both parties to walk away following the World Cup has been removed.

Even so, the FA needs a back-up. If we have learned anything in the last month it is that Capello is not quite the man of iron principle we assumed. Victory or ignominious defeat in South Africa could both leave Capello yearning for a new challenge, particularly with a Euro-slog to Poland and Ukraine lying ahead.

So as they settle in to their Business Class seats full of optimism on the long flight south, the FA’s interim chairman Roger Burden, Club England managing director Adrian Bevington and FA general secretary Alex Horne could do worse than spend a few minutes sketching out Plan B on the back of their napkins.