The chapter on avian emotions...is navigated with caution and Birkhead delicately adds "I am not going to speculate about the emotions that might be involved in avian infidelity". This book kicked off as three-to-one favourite to win the Royal Society Winton Prize. I can see why.

Aside from too many lurid terrorist scenarios, this is an intelligent account of the mess we are making of the planet; the unsettling conclusion: that humans may survive because we are resilient, not because we can fix matters.

Mr. Silver illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics.

Whether readers have an interest in aviation or China’s role in the global economy, Fallows’s book makes for an intriguing read, looking at both sides of the picture: reasons for why China might succeed, as well as those for why the country might struggle.