Dr. Z's Forecast

I wonder what kind of price you could have gotten in Vegas for aparlay on Atlanta, New Orleans and San Diego all being unbeatenafter two weeks. The Saints and the Falcons are in no danger oflosing this week--they have byes--but the Chargers have anintriguing game. Two weeks ago I wouldn't have bothered with SanDiego's matchup against Kansas City at Arrowhead, but as the mansays, a lot has happened in the meantime.

This is exactly the right time to get the Chiefs because they'rein such rough shape physically. Six regulars, includingquarterback Elvis Grbac, sat out the loss to Jacksonville onSunday, and the guys who were on the field wound up in the kindof punishing battle that doesn't shorten recovery time.

San Diego, though, beat a team that many people, including yourstruly, felt would be a dark horse this year--Tennessee. TheChargers won in the Oilers' regular-season debut in Nashvillebefore a full house, and they did it by playing tough,fundamentally sound football. Their new offensive line, stockedwith one medium-priced and two high-priced imports, kept theirrookie quarterback, Ryan Leaf, from being sacked, and this wasagainst a team coached by Jeff Fisher, who learned his footballunder Buddy Ryan in Chicago, Sack City back then.

Natrone Means, pumped full of new life for the umpteenth time,ran like the old Natrone (if you can call a guy who's 26 old) andeven showed some nimble moves. Leaf ran an effective low-riskoffense that produced a touchdown, two field goals and anotherfield goal attempt in its first four possessions. The defensekept Tennessee from crossing midfield in the second half.

Add to that the fact that San Diego has won two of its last fourgames at Arrowhead, and you've got the ingredients for a niftyupset. Does your faithful narrator have the guts to venture sucha pick? Well, uh, you see, it's like this:

The Chiefs should have gotten slaughtered by the Jaguars, just asthey were last year, but they didn't. They were victimized by acouple of long kick returns, a pair of turnovers and, finally, bya pounding ground game. But they hung in and played courageously,and now they've got a rookie quarterback coming in to face thecrowd noise and their exotic package of blitzes, which is stillone of the NFL's best. I think it'll be just a little too muchfor the youngster. So one cop-out pick on the Chiefs, but it'llcertainly be interesting.

Giants over the Cowboys in the Monday-nighter. It's a no-brainer.Troy Aikman's out, the Dallas defensive line is hurting. TheBroncos' John Elway stayed nice and comfortable in the pocketagainst the Cowboys on Sunday, and Terrell Davis ran up gaudyrushing stats. Never have I seen so many holes in a Dallassecondary.

What's with these Sunday-night matchups? Two blowouts, and nowwe've got Philadelphia at Arizona, with the winner to face theArena League champ. O.K., I'm picking the Cardinals, who gave upseven sacks to Seattle, to squeeze one out against an Eagles teamthat's winless in its last 10 road games.

The Jets' Aaron Glenn figures to have a big day on Sunday. Leftcornerback is Colts super rookie Peyton Manning's favoritetarget. In the first two games Terrell Buckley of the Dolphinsand Ty Law of the Patriots each nailed Manning for twointerceptions and one return for a touchdown. A Jet win? Why not?But a blowout? Not so sure. The Colts' defense showed real musclein shutting down New England's running game, and the Jets showedzero on the ground against the Ravens.

Finally, the Dolphins over the Steelers in Miami. Steelers passerKordell Stewart is off to a slow start, and Miami has collected12 sacks in two games. Jimmy Johnson backs off hismuch-publicized running game and opens it up.

--Paul Zimmerman

COLOR PHOTO: PATRICK MURPHY-RACEY BACK IN BUSINESS Means looked like his old bruising self against the Oilers. [Natrone Means in game]

Before he became the premier postseason performer of his generation, the Patriots icon was a middling college quarterback who invited skepticism, even scorn, from fans and his coaches. That was all—and that was everything