Tiger six-pack rates a mention

Tiger six-pack rates a mention

If Richmond is looking for evidence it can feature this season in its first finals campaign in more than a decade, this may be it.

In a detailed statistical analysis, Champion Data says the Tigers boast six elite players in their positions in the past two seasons - Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Jack Riewoldt are givens, but Bachar Houli, Ivan Maric and Shane Tuck would surprise some.

To put this in perspective, only West Coast, with seven, had more. Collingwood and Hawthorn had six, while defending champion Sydney had five. One of those Swans is Kurt Tippett, who was not with the team last season.

The Eagles, Magpies and Hawks will begin the campaign among the premiership favourites. So too will the Swans. So, should this be enough to give the long-suffering Richmond faithful hope of being alive come September?

''That's all very well and good, but guess what? It's probably not those six players that win you the premiership,'' says former Tiger Brian Taylor. ''Collingwood's premiership [in 2010] was won with the [depth of the] bottom six and the six that missed out on the game. It boils down to this: you may have six elite players, but then it is which club has got the closest 20 other players to those elite.''

Taylor, 3AW's leading football commentator, would know, as he missed selection in the Tigers' 1982 grand final team and again with the Magpies in 1990. His comment has even more merit as the Champion Data analysis showed the Swans did not have one player branded as poor.

An analysis of all teams in Champion Data's AFL Prospectus has the usual suspects branded as elite, the likes of Chris Judd, Gary Ablett, Jobe Watson, Lance Franklin and Scott Pendlebury.

Elite players are in the top 10 per cent for their position. Other categories were above average (top 35 per cent of position), average (middle 30 per cent), below average (bottom 35 per cent), poor (bottom 10 per cent), while players who had managed five games or fewer in 2011 and 2012 were only afforded a question mark.

Taylor took umbrage that Richmond's Brandon Ellis, a defender, was judged to have had a below-average campaign in his first season in 2012. ''I thought Brandon Ellis had a cracking year for his first year. He hardly wasted the ball. He is a real good runner, an elite runner,'' he said.

Ellis played in all but one game in his debut season, posting an above-average kick rating.

Conversely, Daniel Jackson and Jake King were deemed to be ''average'' Tigers, another ranking Taylor said was questionable.

''Daniel Jackson, I would put him as below average, and probably Jake King as well,'' he said. ''Jake King, he doesn't give up, he gives a bit of forward pressure and nothing else. Daniel Jackson gives the ball back every time he gets it by trying to do too much with it.''

Other interesting assessments included the below-average campaigns of Collingwood's Alan Didak, Geelong's Travis Varcoe and Josh Caddy, the former Sun who has joined Geelong.

The Cats would insist Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson and James Kelly are elite, although Champion Data rated them only above average in the past two years.

''I don't have the benefit of sitting here and looking at stats, but I would have said they were elite,'' former Geelong premiership skipper Cameron Ling said.

Ruck recruit Hamish McIntosh was in the same category as his new teammates, despite playing just eight games over the past two seasons.

Melbourne recruit Shannon Byrnes was said to have been poor at Geelong, while Nathan Bock was considered to have been elite at the Gold Coast, despite his season ending in round six last year because of a broken leg.

Carlton coach Mick Malthouse will hope Matthew Kreuzer and Andrew Walker emerge from average seasons, while the likes of Bryce Gibbs and Chris Yarran transform from above average to elite.

Hawthorn's Luke Breust would surprise some observers as being elite. Conversely, Brad Sewell had claims to being elite, as opposed to above average.

Essendon has been seen as a team in need of a touch of class in recent years, a point the Bombers have acknowledged by securing Brendon Goddard, one of only three elite players at Windy Hill.

Champion Data's AFL Prospectus 2013, available at bookstores or from Champion Data, $39.95.

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Based on Champion Data statistics 2011-2012ELITE: Top 10 per cent of position in league BELOW AVERAGE: Bottom 35 per cent of position in league POOR: Bottom 10 per cent of position in league (ABOVE AVERAGE and average players not listed, except where the above average were the team’s highest-rated players)