Tesla's CEO: 'Half of Cars Will Be Electric in 15 Years'

In the midst of the Tesla Model S rollout at the company's California manufacturing plant recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a startling prediction: "In 20 years more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric," he said, according to a Reuters article. "I actually feel quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on."

That's a strong statement, but Musk apparently didn't think it was strong enough, so he quickly amended it. "It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame," he added.

For those who closely follow the electric car business, that's a stunning prognostication, to put it kindly. Today, fully electric cars are few and their sales are poor. By 2020, Lux Research Inc. projects that "less than a percent" of new vehicles will be fully electric. Pike Research is slightly more charitable, saying they believe it could hit 1 percent. "If you look 10 years past 2020, is it going to gain another 49 percent?" asks Dave Hurst, senior analyst for Pike Research. "It's unlikely."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk expects half of cars to be electric in 15 years, despite the long odds against it. (Source: http://www.revengeoftheelectriccar.com/)

So what's Musk thinking? Hard to say. A big thinker with a reputation for genius, Musk isn't afraid to take risks. His SpaceX startup has already sent a ship up to dock with the International Space Station, an achievement that initially drew laughter. His recent introduction of the Model S was another beat-the-odds story, since many expected Tesla to fail long before it reached this point. So Musk has a track record of turning his dreams into reality.

But half of all new cars within 12 to 15 years? Bear in mind, by using the term "fully electric," Musk is excluding plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius PHV. For now, that leaves the Model S, Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, GM Spark, and a few others. More are coming, but it would need to be a lot more to get to 50 percent in 12 to 15 years.

There are, of course, societal factors that could enter the picture. A shock to the oil market or government mandates, much stricter than those now calling for 54.5 mpg by 2025, could change the outlook. And the battery, of course, could be the biggest wild card of all. If materials scientists can find ways to dramatically boost the energy density, cut the cost, and charge batteries more quickly, they could launch a revolution in consumer demand.

I am still working on the legal protection so it can be presented properly. I have only shown it under confidential disclosure.

It has a mechanism where the actual movement of the pistions, and cylinders are perfectly balanced circles, but the relative motion between them is linear and conventional. No, it is not anything like a Le Rhône. Real sweet!

True, the concepts haven't been strong enough. Now, when I'm sure I have a strong concept, the interest and money has dried up. I'll keep looking for money though. Maybe this post can find a few with money who still beleive.

If I remember right, Chuck, theat pretty much ended the concept of the rotary engine. As for the inefficiency of the piston engine, I wouldn't think that the non-productive return movement of the piston consumers significant energy.

Yes it does seem like we gave up, ChasChas. That's why I'm wondering whether the troubles were because of a weak concept or a weak execution. And is there an alternative to the rotary engine and the piston engine?

I'm no expert on the Wankel, Rob, so I'll take Mirox's word for it that the apex seal problm was solved long ago. I do remember hearing stories in the old days about Mazdas getting their engines rebuilt every 50,000 miles because of the apex seals. I'm sure Mirox is right, though: That was a long time ago.

Well, the literature says we are still wasting 35% of our gas moving the pistons back and forth (normal driving). True rotary engine research sure seems like a must do to me. Like the long range battery, we gotta have it. And it seems like we gave up.

Yes, in business, there are great rewards for successful competition. It brings out some extraordinary effort. I'm not sure it always brings out the best -- sometimes noncompetitive research brings out the best -- but it does spur effort, and that often produces extraordinary results. The moon landing was the result of competition.

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