AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Sunday, December 18, 2005

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to provide guidance on Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal, northeast of Sri Lanka. Cyclone 07B has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities. The centre of Cyclone 07B is now located about 220 km east of Jaffna, 350 km southeast of Nagapattinam, and 350 km south-southeast of Chennai. It is moving to the northwest at 5 kt.

The JTWC has issued 4 cyclone alerts for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is forecast to slowly strengthen or maintain current strength. Due to the change in course to the north, the likelihood of the centre crossing Northern Sri Lanka continues to lessen. However, it continues to parallel the northeast coast just offshore, and if it stays on its present course, will likewise begin to parallel the Tamil Nadu Coast later tomorrow. A large area of convection continues to be situated just to the northeast of Sri Lanka, and the cyclone continues to cycle outer rain bands, some occasionally heavy, across northern and eastern parts of the country.

Evacuations have remained in force tonight in Sri Lanka for many low-lying coastal areas in northern and northeastern parts of the island including low-lying, flood-prone areas of Jaffna, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Kalmunai. Rain bands are also starting to move into much of coastal Tamil Nadu from Nagapattinam north and in parts of southern and central Andhra Pradesh. Evacuations may begin in vulnerable coastal areas of these Indian states tomorrow.

Given the recent the heavy rainfall from Cyclones Baaz and Fanoos in the last few weeks, the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka is very high. Many rivers are also running very high. In addition Cyclone Fanoos last week impacted on much of the Jaffna Peninsula causing much light to moderate damage to roofs, crops and smalls houses. Much crop damage also occurred in Central Tamil Nadu. A riot in a flood relief centre in Chennai killed over 40 people earlier today.

Therefore, as Cyclone 07B marks a continuation of this string of tropical cyclones, it could exacerbate the situation over the much of the area with flooding and wind damage. This is particularly true for the Jaffna Peninsula and for internally displaced people still in temporary housing from last year's tsunami. The risk for the Chennai area is also starting to increase given the shift in direction of the system. Cyclone 07B, at its current strength and speed has the potential to cause localised to widespread flooding for flood-prone areas wherever it comes ashore. This includes storm surge flooding, flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in India should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings. The Governments of both Sri Lanka and India are again calling on all fisherman and maritime interests in the area to stay in port.

180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 82.2E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A BROAD, MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT WITH SEPARATE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE STORM. TC 07B CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER INDOCHINA. AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS EASTERN RIDGE SUBSIDES, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF INDIA. ALTHOUGH TC 07B RECENTLY STRENGTHENED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND AND AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER EASTERN INDIA IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//

For December 18th.The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal was located near latitude 10.0N longitude and 82.5E at 1000 hours today 18th December 2005. The distance of the system is about 200-250 km East of Jaffna. It is likely intensify further and move in a Northwest direction towards the Tamilnadu coast of South India. The system is unlikely to cross Northern part of Sri Lanka.

The fishing and naval community is requested not to venture to the seas extending from Puttalam to Potuwil through Jaffna and Tricomalee as the seas will experience strong winds, very rough conditions and continuous rain during the next 24 hours.

Occasional showers or thundershowers, heavy in some places, and strong winds up to 80kmph are expected in Northern, Eastern, North-Central and North-western Provinces. Western, Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces will also experience fairly strong winds and rain at times.

Low lying coastal zones from Puttalam to Mullativu through Jaffna are likely to be inundated by sea waves generated by strong winds.

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1130 hrs. IST of 18th December near Lat. 10.0o N and Long. 83.0o E about 350 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai by tomorrow, 19th December, evening. .

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy fall is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS IS LIKELY ALONG NORTH TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESHT AND ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS OVER REST TAMIL NADU AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU COAST. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

APCEDI

APCEDI is a service of AFAP
- the Australian Foundation for the Peoples of Asia and the Pacific and FSPI
- the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific International.

Disclaimer: This service provides indicative alert information
and should only be construed in conjunction with other sources of information
such as local and regional weather services. Reports are as accurate as possible,
but as the information is indicative, external confirmation should be sought.