The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security (RUSI), a London based think-tank with close links to both Britain’s Ministry of Defense and the Pentagon. has intimated that “some sort of western [military] intervention in Syria is looking increasingly likely.” What RUSI has in mind in its Syria Crisis Briefing entitled A Collision Course for Intervention, is what might be described as “A Soft Invasion” leading either to a “break-up of the country” along sectarian lines and/or the installation of a Sunni Islamist regime. Several “scenarios” involving “clandestine” intelligence operations are put forth. The unspoken objective of these military and intelligence options is to destabilize the secular State and implement through military means the transition towards a post-Assad “Islamist-dominated or influenced regime” modelled on Qatar and Saudi Arabia, e.g. (p 9):

A better insight is needed on the activities and relationships of Al-Qa’ida and other Syrian and international Salafist jihadists that are now entering the country in increasing numbers. The floodgates are likely to open even further as international jihadists are emboldened by signs of significant opposition progress against the regime. Such elements have the support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and would undoubtedly have a role in Syria following the collapse of Assad. The scope of their involvement would need to be factored into intervention planning.

While recognizing that the rebel fighters are outright terrorists involved in the killing of civilians, the RUSI Briefing, invoking tactical and intelligence considerations, suggests that allied forces should nonetheless support the terrorists. The terrorist brigades have been supported by the US-led coalition from the very outset of the insurgency in mid-Mar 2011. Special Forces have integrated the insurgency:

What military, political and security challenges would they then present in the country, to the region and to the West? Issues include the possibility of an Islamist-dominated or influenced regime inheriting sophisticated weaponry, including anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile systems and chemical and biological weapons that could be transferred into the hands of international terrorists. At the tactical level, intelligence would be needed to identify the most effective groups, and how best to support them. It would also be essential to know how they operate, and whether support might assist them to massacre rivals or carry out indiscriminate attacks against civilians, something we have already witnessed among Syrian opposition groups.

The foregoing acknowledgment confirms the US-NATO resolve to use “Political Islam”, including the deployment of CIA-MI6 supported Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist groups, to pursue their hegemonic ambitions in Syria. Covert operations by Western intelligence in support of “opposition” terrorist entities are launched to weaken the secular state, foment sectarian violence and create social divisions. We will recall that in Libya, the “pro-democracy” rebels were led by Al Qaeda affiliated paramilitary brigades under the supervision of NATO Special Forces. The much-vaunted “Liberation” of Tripoli was carried out by former members of the Libya Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG).

Military Options and Actions: Towards a “Soft Invasion”?

Several concrete military options, which largely reflect ongoing Pentagon-NATO thinking on the matter, are contemplated in the RUSI Briefing. All these options are based on a scenario of “regime change” requiring the intervention of allied forces in Syrian territory. What is contemplated is a “Soft Invasion” modelled on Libya under an R2P humanitarian mandate rather than an all out “shock and awe” Blitzkrieg.

The RUSI Briefing, however, confirms that continued and effective support to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels will eventually require the use of ”air power in the form of fighter jets and sea, land and air launched missile systems” combined with the influx of Special Forces and the landing of “elite airborne and amphibious infantry.” (p 16) This transition towards concrete naval and air power support to the rebels is no doubt also motivated by the setbacks of the insurgency (including substantial rebel losses) following the backlash by government forces in the wake of the Jul 18 terror attack against the National Security headquarters in Damascus, which led to the death of the Minister of Defense General Daoud Rajha and two other senior members of the country’s national defense team. Various overlapping military actions are envisaged, to be carried out sequentially both prior and in the wake of the proposed “regime change” (pp 9-10):

The top-of-the-range option, destruction of the Syrian armed forces through an Iraq-style ‘shock and awe’ invasion, could undoubtedly be achieved by a US-led coalition. As with all other forms of intervention, however, handling the aftermath would be far less predictable, and could draw coalition forces into a long-running and bloody quagmire. At present that option can be excluded as a realistic possibility. There is no doubt that the substantial neutralisation of Syria’s air defence infrastructure could be achieved by a US-led air operation. But it would require a major, sustained and extremely costly campaign including Special Forces deployed on the ground to assist targeting.

The remaining intervention options fall broadly into three sometimes overlapping categories. The first category is military enforcement action to reduce or end the violence in Syria, to prevent Assad’s forces from attacking the civilian population by direct action. The second is seeking to bring about regime change by a combination of support for opposition forces and direct military action. The second category might apply in the aftermath of regime collapse. The objective would be to support a post-Assad government by helping to stabilise the country and protect the population against inter-factional violence and retribution. A stabilisation force would be deployed at the request of the new government. In any intervention scenario there might be a need to either destroy or secure Syria’s chemical weapons, if they were about to be used, transferred or otherwise made insecure. This would require such specialised and potentially substantial combat forces, it is likely to be a mission that only the US could execute. The third category is humanitarian relief: bringing in supplies and medical aid to besieged populations. This form of intervention, which would most likely be conducted under the auspices of the UN, would require aid agencies such as the International Red Crescent as well as armed military forces including air power, again perhaps based on a NATO coalition. Humanitarian relief might be needed before or after a change of regime.

RUSI ignores the fact that the killings are committed by the FSA rather than by government forces. Reminiscent of Iraq’s WMD, the pretext of Syria’s chemical weapons is being used to justify a more muscled military intervention. “Humanitarian relief” is often used as a pretext to send in combat units. Special forces and intelligence ops are frequently dispatched in under an NGO cover.

Concrete US-NATO Military Actions

Does the RUSI Briefing reflect the current outlook of US-NATO military planning in relation to Syria? What concrete military and intelligence actions have been taken by the Western military alliance in the wake of the Chinese and Russian vetoes in the UNSC? The deployment of a powerful naval armada of French and British warships is already envisaged at an unstipulated date “later in the Summer”. (See here). The British Ministry of Defense, however, has intimated that Royal Navy deployments to the Middle East could only only be activated ‘after” the London Olympic games. Two of Britain’s largest warships, the HMS Bulwark and the HMS Illustrious have been assigned, at tremendous cost to British tax payers, to “ensuring the security” of the London Olympics. HMS Bulwark is stationed in Weymouth Bay for the duration of the games. HMS Illustrious is “currently sitting on the Thames in central London.” These planned naval operations are carefully coordinated with stepped-up allied support to the “Free Syrian Army”, integrated by foreign jihadist mercenaries trained in Qatar, Iraq, Turkey and Saudi Arabia on behalf of the Western military alliance. Will the US-NATO alliance launch an all-out air operation? Syria’s air defense capabilities, according to reports, are based on Russia’s advanced S-300 system. Unconfirmed reports point to the cancellation of delivery by Russia, following pressure from Israel, of the advanced S-300 surface-to-air missile system to Syria. (See here). Reports also suggest the installation of an advanced Russian radar system. (See here).

The Role of Special Forces

In the months ahead, allied forces will no doubt focus on disabling the country’s military capabilities including its air defense, communications systems, through a combination of covert operations, cyber-warfare and US-NATO sponsored SFA terror attacks. “The Free Syrian Army” rebels are NATO’s foot soldiers. FSA commanders, many of whom are part of Al Qaeda affiliated entities, are in permanent liaison with British and French Special Forces inside Syria. The RUSI report recommends that the rebels should be supported through the “deployment into the country of Special Forces advisers with air support on call” (p 10):

Advisers working alongside rebel commanders, perhaps accompanied by small units of Special Forces troops, could be tactically and strategically decisive, as it proved in both Afghanistan in 2001 and in Libya in 2011.

Special Forces have been on the ground in Syria since the outset of the insurgency. Reports also confirm the role of private security companies including former Blackwater mercenaries in the training of the FSA rebels. In what is described as “USAia’s War Under the Table”, Special forces on the ground are in permanent liaison with allied military and intelligence.

The Influx of Mercenary Jihadist Fighters

In the wame of the UNSC deadlock, a speeding-up in the recruitment and training of mercenary jihadist fighters is unfolding. According to a British Army source, British Special Forces (SAS) are now training Syrian “rebels” in Iraq “in military tactics, weapons handling and communications systems”. The report, from January, also confirms that advanced military command training is being conducted in Saudi Arabia on behalf of the Western military alliance:

British and French Special Forces have been actively training members of the FSA, from a base in Turkey. Some reports indicate that training is also taking place in locations in Libya and Northern Lebanon. British MI6 operatives and UKSF (SAS/SBS) personnel have reportedly been training the rebels in urban warfare as well as supplying them with arms and equipment. US CIA operatives and special forces are believed to be providing communications assistance to the rebels.

More than 300 rebels have passed through a base just inside the Iraq border, while a command course is run in Saudi Arabia. Groups of 50 rebels at a time are being trained by two private security firms employing former Special Forces personnel.A former SAS member said: “Our role is purely instructional teaching tactics, techniques and procedures. If we can teach them how to take cover, to shoot and avoid being spotted by snipers it will hopefully help.”

The Role of Turkey and Israel

Turkey’s military high command has been in liaison with NATO HQ since Aug 2011 pertaining to the active recruitment of thousands of Islamist “freedom fighters”, reminiscent of the enlistment of Mujahideen to wage the CIA’s jihad in the heyday of the Soviet-Afghan war. According to DEBKAfile in Aug 2011:

Also discussed in Brussels and Ankara, our sources report, is a campaign to enlist thousands of Muslim volunteers in Middle East countries and the Muslim world to fight alongside the Syrian rebels. The Turkish army would house these volunteers, train them and secure their passage into Syria.

The recent influx of foreign fighters on a significant scale suggests that this diabolical Mujahideen recruitment program developed more than a year ago, has come to fruition. Turkey is also supporting Muslim Brotherhood fighters in Northern Syria. As part of of its support to SFA rebels, said Reuters on Jul 27:

Turkey has set up a secret base with allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar to direct vital military and communications aid to Syria’s rebels from a city near the border.

Israel’s role in supporting the rebels, largely characterised by covert intel ops, has been discreet but nonetheless significant. From the very outset, Mossad has supported radical Salafist terrorist groups, which became active in Southern Syria at the outset of the protest movement in Daraa in mid-March. Reports suggest that financing for the Salafi insurgency is coming from Saudi Arabia. (See here). While channelling covert support to the SFA, Israel is also supporting Syrian Kurdish separatists in North Syria. The Kurdish (KNC) opposition group has close links to the Kurdish Regional Government of Massoud Barzani in northern Iraq, which is directly supported by Israel. The Kurdish separatist agenda is slated to be used by Washington and Tel Aviv to seek the break up of Syria along ethnic and religious lines into several separate and “independent” political entities. It is worth noting that Washington has also facilitated the dispatch of Kurdish Syrian “opposition militants” to Kosovo in May to participate in training sessions using the “terrorist expertise” of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). (See here). The not-so-hidden USraeli military agenda is to “Break Syria into Pieces”, with a view to supporting Israeli expansionism. (See here).

Confrontation with Russia

What can we expect in the months ahead:

A naval deployment in the Eastern Mediterranean, the military objective of which has not been clearly defined by allied forces:

A greater influx of foreign fighters and death squads into Syria and the conduct of of carefully targeted terrorist attacks in coordination with US-NATO;

An escalation in the deployment of allied special forces, including mercenaries from private security companies on contract to Western intelligence.

The objective, under the “Damascus Volcano and Syrian Earthquake” operation, ultimately consisted in extending the SFA terror attacks to Syria’s capital, under the supervision of Western Special Forces and intelligence operatives on the ground. (See here). This option of targeting Damascus has failed. The rebels have also been pushed back in heavy fighting in Syria’s second largest city Aleppo. The weakening of Russia’s role in Syria, including its functions under the bilateral military cooperation agreement with Damascus, is also part of the US-NATO military-intelligence agenda. This could result in terrorist attacks directed against Russian nationals living in Syria. A terror attack against Russia’s naval base in Tartus was announced less than 2 weeks following the UNSC face-off, no doubt ordered by US-NATO with a view to threatening Russia. Following the arrival of Russia’s naval flotilla of ten warships stationed off the Syrian coast, an FSA spokesman confirmed on Jul 26 their intention to attack Russia’s naval base in Tartus, saying:

We have a warning for the Russian forces: if they will send any more weapons that kill our families and the Syrian people we will hit them hard inside Syria. Informers inside the regime are telling that us that there is a big weapons shipment arriving at Tartous in the next two weeks. We don’t want to attack the port, we are not terrorists, but if they keep acting like this we will have no choice.

The FSA has formed a ‘Naval brigade’ made up of defectors from the Syrian navy, which operates close to Tartous. Captain Walid, a former officer in the Syrian Navy, was reported as saying:

Many of our men used to work in the port of Tartous and they know it well. We are watching very closely the movements of the Russians. We can easily destroy the port. If we hit the weapons stores with anti-tank missiles or another weapon it would trigger a devastating explosion. Or we can attack the ships directly.

Were Russia’s naval base to be attacked, this would, in all likelihood, be undertaken under the supervision of allied special forces and intelligence operatives. While Russia has the required military capabilities to effectively defend its Tartus naval base, an attack on Russia’s naval base would constitute an act of provocation, which could set the stage for a more visible involvement of Russian forces inside Syria. Such a course could potentially also lead to a direct confrontation between Russian forces and Western special forces and mercenaries operating within rebel ranks. According to the RUSI Briefing (p 5):

Anticipating Russian action and counter action would have to be a major factor in any Western intervention plan. The Russians are certainly capable of bold and unexpected moves.

The World at a Dangerous Crossroads

An all-out “humanitarian war” against Syria is on the drawing board of the Pentagon, which if carried out could lead the World into a regional war extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to the heartland of Central Asia. A sophisticated and all-encompassing propaganda program supports war in the name of World peace and global security. The underlying scenario of Worldwide conflict goes far beyond the diabolical design of Orwell’s 1984. The Ministry of Truth upholds war as a peace-making undertaking by twisting realities upside down. In turn, the lies and fabrications of the mainstream media are presented with various innuendos in a complex web of deceit. In a cynical twist, documented atrocities against Syrian civilians committed by the West’s “opposition” are now being acknowledged (rather than blamed on government forces) as “unavoidable” in the painful transition towards to “democracy”. The broader consequences of ”the Big Lie” are obfuscated. Global humanitarian warfare becomes a consensus which nobody can challenge. The war on Syria is part of an integrated Worldwide military agenda. The road to Tehran goes through Damascus. Iran, Russia, China and North Korea are also being threatened. With the deployment of the Franco-British naval armada later this Summer, Western warships in the Eastern Mediterranean would be contiguous to those deployed by Russia, which is conducting its own war games, leading to a potential “Cold War style confrontation” between Russian and Western naval forces. (See here). A war on Syria, which would inevitably involve Israel and Turkey, could constitute the spark towards a regional war directed against Iran, in which Russia and China could be directly or indirectly involved. It is crucial to spread the word and break the channels of media disinformation.

10 Responses to The End Game: Destabilizing the Secular State, Installing “Political Islam”

Amir-Abdollahian underscored that foreign military invasion against Syria is unlikely and Damascus is needless of Iran’s military support, noting that it has been years that Damascus has been fully prepared to respond to any foreign raid, including war with Zionist regime.

israel’s proxies may have stick to the terror campaign they are running now since their attempt to force a libya scenario through unsc failed. the american elections, and the unpredictability of the response inside the usa is probably also contributing. open war is probably still too risky for them.

@Alex I do not know, I think most of my friends were expecting the M.B. style party to win. I read somewhere that the people of Libya did not vote for Belhaj because they did not want any connectin with Qatar.

One of the first laws they changed after Gaddafi was removed, was to lift the ban on polygamy. The country will move in a more Islamic direction for sure.

Your friends are stupids, thinking that Nato would Let a MB like rule.
Moreover, they are stupid to think Libyans, the sons of Omar al-Mukhtar would elect traitors, who sold Libya to Qatar and Nato, thats what I tried to explain to the stupid preying from Khalil. We learned from our prophet PUH, A moamin won’t be bitten from the same hole twise.
Shaytanhood and co, lost the war. they will not deliver, and Usrael is happy to see them killed in the Syrian trap.

“… It may be natural for the Arabs to act in a sectarian manner but Turkey is a secular country at its foundations. The former head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Deniz Baykal says that secularism should be applied not only to the Turkish interior but also to the country’s foreign policy. All Turkish analysts, even those that are close to the AKP, agree that Turkey has pursued a sectarian foreign policy ……
The true reformist face of Turkey under the AKP was uncovered after a short period: more Islamism at the expense of secularism, more ethnic solidarity at the expense of coexistence with the Kurds, and more religious solidarity at the expense of cohesion with the Alawis…..

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is busy studying the geographic distribution of sects and ethnicities in Syria. Naturally, he has put even more effort in studying Turkey’s sectarian and ethnic map, as have all Turkish leaders since 1923.
There was an incident last week in the town of Surgu, Malatya. It was Ramadan and the town’s masrahati [the one who signals the time to eat during Ramadan] stood in front of an Alawi-Kurdish house and beat the drum signaling the time for Suhoor [morning meal during Ramadan] and called out for the people to “get up for Suhoor.” The people in the house got up and told the masrahati to stop beating the drum because they do not fast. And the problems started. The next day, about 60 young people gathered in front of the Alawi-Kurdish house and started stoning it while shouting “death to the Alawis, death of the Kurds” and “there is no place for you here. Leave or we will kill you.” The incident repeated itself the next day.

The official reaction was that it was an isolated incident, not deserving of attention. But in reality that’s not true. There has been many such incidents in front of Alawi homes whereby threats are issued that the Alawis must fast or they will be killed.
In the August 1 edition of Milliyet newspaper, Mehves Evin wrote that the attackers were incited by the authorities’ Sunni policies and that the incident was not investigated, which encourages the repeat of such sectarian incidents…..(Continue, here)”

“Enemies of Hezbollah in Israel and its clients in the region are already popping the champagne bottles.”
I would to Istareli clients, , “Muslim” Luara and KA, who in this very special event would pop bottles with Zionists.

Abu Khalil ignored to mention that”The Syrian regime was very unfriendly toward Hezbollah” when Khaddam was handling the Lebanon’s file. He ignored that when Khaddam and Rafik Al-Hariri, order Emil Lahoud to move his army to the south, Lahoud refused the orders, and this rejection paved the his way to Presidancy Balance, and moving the the Lebanese file from Khaddam to Bashar in early 1990s.

Nasrallah, in his speaches talked about Khaddam, Ghazi Kanaan era, and said many times that Liberation of the South in year 2000, and defeating Israel in 2006 was not possible without syrian Support, the latest was last month.

Finally, I assure Laura that the defection of the Syrian PM, is good for Syria. She needs some “good” news to tight her screws, but in few day syrian will forget him like they forget Tlass.