Stuff

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. It’s at the top end of the Labour lead than YouGov have been showing over the last two weeks, but is probably just normal random variation (before anyone asks, it’s too soon really to see a Ken Clarke effect).

Meanwhile, turning to the other cabinet member under fire, this morning’s Sun also had a YouGov question on Chris Huhne’s future: 49% think he should resign, 29% think not, and 23% don’t know.

348 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 42, LD 9”

@JOHN MURPHY
We found “the Micks” shoulder to shoulder with the brits in the trenches, not fighting for the Kaiser. In WW2, a few Irish spies, but very large numbers fought in the British armed forces. So you see its not quite the same.

“but very large numbers fought in the British armed forces. ”
As opposed to Muslims?
A quick search (going from a BBC article – but I assume their left-wing bias means they’re making these people up) show that over 600 Muslims serve in the British armed forces.

But let’s just start bleating out vague pseudo-xenophobic stereotypes.

And I’m puzzled you seem to claim that you were there in the trenches in the Great War and all subsequent conflicts….it’s true my great uncle died in the First World War and was decorated by the French for seizing back a French gun from the advancing German army….but I cannot claim to be able to speak on his behalf….

But beyond the ‘we’ of your world-view there’s another even bigger world….full of hope and mystery….a true adventure….full of new perspectives…

Although Labour and LibDem voters are closer together in answers than the Tories are to either – if you separate social/civil liberty issues and economic issues (as best you can) there is an interesting trend.
If we go by two left-right axis then LibDem voters are left of Labour voters on social issues and right of Labour voters on economic issues.

“If we go by two left-right axis then LibDem voters are left of Labour voters on social issues and right of Labour voters on economic issues.”

Certainly that’s where the Scottish Vote Compass would place LD supporters vis a vis Labour.

(I wanted to double check that, so i rapidly completed the questionnaire by simply clicking “Completely Agree” to every question – thus being in agreement with wholly contradictory positions. Consequently, I was identified as a Tory :-) )

‘@John MURPHY
Please spare me the Irish charm. “WE” means the British people. Your Great Uncle was one of thousands of Irish soldiers who died between 1914 and 1918. It is very common knowledge and you can speak of your uncle with pride.

TINGED FRINGE
@ Over 600 a, out of a total of 200,000 approx. WOW, what exactly does that prove. How many Afro-Caribbean soldiers sailors and airman are there? What about Fijians and the wonderful Gurkha’s? They all individually come to a lot more than 600 mate.

@OLD NAT
I do not know how many Taliban are captured. These things are not made public knowledge. If the figure were 100 per month, I could not say with any accuracy that 48% have family in Britain. But, lads and their battalion/regimental officers of my acquaintance, who have fought these people as recently as 1 month ago, in many cases for the 2nd or even 3rd time, are very sure of their facts regarding serious numbers of “British”. The other thing we are never told is about Taliban losses, why?

@John Murphy
Here are some polls “to chew over”
GERMANY
Average of 3 latest polls (18-20 May): Christian Democrats 32.7 + Liberals 4.2 = Government 36.9 (but in reality 32.7, since Liberals do not clear the 5% threshold). Social Democrats 24.3 + Greens 23.7 = 48 = OM. The Left 8.2
SWEDEN
TNS-Sifo (May Poll, 15-5)
Center-left opposition 46.8
Center-right govt. 46.0 (in reality 42.2 because Christian Democrats do not clear the 4% threshold)
Sweden Democrats 6.8
It is the first time that c-l is ahead since the traumatic election of 2010, and this is almost entirely due to the Social Democrats’ increase (+2.7) under their new leadership. Still, though, a hung parliament, no alliance gets OM because of SD.
ITALY
IPSOS, 17-5, 1 day after 1str round of local elections
Center-left opposition 45.4
Center-right govt. 40.5
Third Pole (center) 10.4
(But the pre-electoral polls, and even the exit polls, had largely underestimated the center-left score in Milan and other cities – based on these scores center-left heads to a landslide in next GE).
PORTUGAL
(Very critical GE on May 5th because of the bailout)
Intercampus 14-19 May
Soc. Democrats (center-right oppos.) 35.7
Socialists (caretaker govt.) 34.1
Popular Party (right) 12.8
Communists+Greens 7.5
Left Bloc 6.8
So center-right majority (Soc.Dems + Populars) is not arithmetically possible, and center-left majority is not politically possible because left parties reject PS’s austerity policies. Probable outcome: Grand coalition, a solution favored by financial circles. 2 major parties difference within MOE, whereas some months ago the PSD seemed to head to landslide over incumbent PS.
SPAIN
Local and regional election tomorrow. Figures too depressing to report!! (Socialists head to major defeat due to economic crisis and most of all unemployment, despite the fact that in many regions, and especially in Valencia, the right-wing PP files candidates implied in major financial scandals, including the president of Valencia region)

@Tinged Fringe – “LibDem voters are left of Labour voters on social issues and right of Labour voters on economic issues.”

Listened to Five Days in May today on BBC R4, a dramatisation of the coalition negotiations, first broadcast in November last year.

Ed Balls is portayed as a bit of a buiser, and Danny Alexander as a deficit hawk (so much for the pre-election stance)… their abrupt differences of opinion on the pupil premium, tax rates and other LD manifesto pledges pall in comparison to the volte face over tuition fees that was ultimately forced upon them.

The Hague/Osborne/Letwin negotiation team wins charm points in this portrayal, but Gordon Brown’s remonstrance to Nick Clegg (in the context of a realigning the left) – “This is the Tory party we are talking about here!” has more and more resonance as time goes on.

@TINGE FRINGE
Had I not been lazy, I could have looked up the “600”, because it would have illustrated my original point very well. When one considers the number of British citizens of Middle Eastern/Pakistani origin, and then consider how long some families have been here, 600 in the armed forces just about says it all. How poor is your history? I am discussing the (illogical) but great support and sacrifice from The Republic of Ireland and the Free State in two World conflicts, and you throw up 600 Muslims. I should read a book on 20th century military history.

@old nat
My understanding is that a number are heard speaking with British regional accents. I believe most speak Urdu, but skilled interpretors can very often discern an English speaker, speaking an Afghan language. I have no knowledge of papers. From own experience in Ireland and elsewhere, “papers” are usually only fit for the most basic of requirements.

With all this talk of the rapture, I am starting to think that Republicans are right. LA must be filled with bad, immoral, non-Christian believers who don’t like Jesus enough! Because no one has been taken up to heaven yet!

It is , but the report in question explained how English Taliban fighters were identified :-

“Jonathan Evans, director general of the British security service, MI5, has warned that some British Muslims do travel to Afghanistan and Pakistan each year to train with extremist groups. Last year it was reported that RAF spy planes in Helmand, southern Afghanistan, had detected strong Yorkshire and Birmingham accents from fighters using radios and telephones. The fighters apparently spoke the main Afghan languages of Dari and Pashtu but lapsed into English when they were lost for the correct words.”

“We’ve only got nine hours or so left until the end of the world, and as it’s a weekend anyway there isn’t much chance of altering the legal or politcal system before we go.

Anyway, it’s been very nice knowing you all. I’m spending my last day sorting out the garden. I very much doubt that I’ll be among the 200m people who experience The Rapture, but if any of you are, have a lovely time.”

Lol.

@ Old Nat

“I had forgotten that this was the end of the world coming. I’m still around – though you may be the last surviving poster with good enough weather to be able to get into the garden.

I really don’t want the world to end before I deal with that last patch of creeping buttercup.”

I’m still around too, I must truly be a non-believer and await hell at any moment. I hope it’s not the end of the world because I’d really like to compete on Cupcake Wars and finish Gordon Brown’s book before I die (and read Tony Blair’s).

On Friday I appeared on Brian Taylor’s Big Debate (Radio Scotland’s Any Questions type programme) on behalf of Labour. It was live from Fraserburgh (the strongest ward in Scotland for the SNP). The SNP had also bussed in the party workers etc so it got a bit lively.
The SNP view on defence was particularly interesting.

@JAY BLANC
For an intelligent person Jay I am surprised. We now reduce the Muslim numbers by 50% to 300, but that was a few years ago. I ask again, how does this stack up to lads and girls of Black African origin? I, making a point about the “fitting in” and loyalty of large immigratory groups not how many Lakota Sioux are in the Royal Artillery.

“I’ve forgotten the “legal” basis for UK troops being in Afghanistan (as if it matters).”

The way I understood it, we entered Afghanistan (the U.S. did and Britain assisted) to go and get Bin Laden. The invasion of Afghanistan was justified on account of the fact that the Taliban which exerted defacto control over the state was allied to Bin Laden and protecting him and that Bin Laden was there. Well Bin Laden is dead now (turns out he’s not been hiding in Afghanistan but in plain site in Pakistan). That sad chapter is of world history is over. So, we have to ask, what the hell are we still doing there? I say it’s time to bring our young men and women home.

@COLIN & BARNEY
It pleases me more than I can tell you, that I have had supportive comments from a political friend and an opponent. This issue which involves some boring old military history, is important to some of us. Others would sooner stew in their liberal juice refusing to accept that we have any issues of any consequence in this regard. That is why the nation spends huge amounts on internal security. So much more fun to take, or attempt to take, the p.ss out of silly old Sapper than own up to the facts.

If you like scenery, seeing a different life style (neither better nor worse, just different), history, different food (some better than I’ve had in the USA – some infinitely worse!), an Oregon style climate, there are worse places to go than Scotland.

“You make the key point here and I’ve seen it many times this side of the pond too where people in the public eye are arrested and charged and the media then explode into an orgy of presumed guilt and character assassination. We had a classic case not long ago with a TV celebrity called Richard Madeley who was arrested and charged with shoplifting. Cue the tabloid newspapers into feeding frenzy. Many months later, but with the damage to his reputation done, he was acquitted on all charges.

What was going on was a malevolent desire to see him proved guilty; the wish being the father to the thought. They we equating a police arrest and charge with guilt and, as we know, they are quite often two very different things.

In the West Midlands during the 1980s we had a police crime squad who were routinely fabricating evidence and trumping up false charges. Many innocent men and women were incarcerated as a result. The rotten apples had taken over the barrel with appalling consequences. Always best to let twelve good men and true to determine guilt, in my view; not the police and certainly not the media.”

There are unfortunately bad cops out there who give the rest a terrible name.

I think the public desire to convict people without a trial is based on certain factors of envy. People look at celebrities who seem to have everything that they don’t and they take an enjoyment in watching the mighty fall.

It gets manifested in different ways. Like with exGovernor Gropenfuhrer and Tiger Woods and the public obsession with their personal failings. On Gropenfuhrer, his diddling of the maid and the secret love child don’t surprise me (I’m more suprised that it stayed covered up for as long as it did). I’ve never been a fan of his movies and his personal life doesn’t affect whether I’ll go to them or not. As for Tiger Woods, people had great fun with each new mistress. Woods’s whole cleancut reputation took a hit but people really seemed to enjoy it. Woods never told me what god to pray to or who to have sex with (unlike many professional athletes) and so I didn’t sit there judging him for his personal mistakes.

But it all ties in together with the desire to convict celebrities in the media. This is why we have trials though. :)

“Yes – most troops should be withdrawn soon, and the
rest within the next year or so – 47%”

That seems about right. We can’t just pack up and leave tommorow but we can start the process and hurry it up. And I think the U.S. is going to start rethinking a good deal of our foreign policy. So much of it has been a failure in the face of Bin Laden. That’s why Obama deserves enormous credit for the operation. We can get back to some normalcy again….I hope.

“If you like scenery, seeing a different life style (neither better nor worse, just different), history, different food (some better than I’ve had in the USA – some infinitely worse!), an Oregon style climate, there are worse places to go than Scotland.”

I’m all about good food (and notwithstanding England’s reputation for bad food, some of the best meals of my life have been in England). I love beautiful scenery and good architecture. And Oregon is a little weird but their climate isn’t terrible. They’re some of the freest people in the world, “obscenity” is protected speech in Oregon. Frankly, I don’t mind bad weather in foreign placed. I don’t really need to travel halfway around the world for climate.

@SOCALIBERAL
The lesson which still appears to be swept under the carpet, is the duplicity and graft of Pakistan. Our government is frit to death to talk straight to avoid the wrath of Pakistanis in this country. Like, can you imagine if Bin Laden had been found in Tijuana Mexico, like Oh My God. After the unusually (for them) successful operation of the US Navy S.E.A.L.S in despatching Bin Laden how much more evidence does the world need? Of course the closure of the local library is more important to most of your friends on the board.

“The lesson which still appears to be swept under the carpet, is the duplicity and graft of Pakistan. Our government is frit to death to talk straight to avoid the wrath of Pakistanis in this country. Like, can you imagine if Bin Laden had been found in Tijuana Mexico, like Oh My God. After the unusually (for them) successful operation of the US Navy S.E.A.L.S in despatching Bin Laden how much more evidence does the world need? Of course the closure of the local library is more important to most of your friends on the board.”

Please don’t badmouth the Navy Seals and Marines who volunteer their lives in order to protect me and protect everything that my nation stands for. Thanks.

And frankly, I don’t care that much about Pakistan’s government as we need that country to stay out of the hands of Islamic radicals and we need them for access to Afghanistan. I might add that they have nuclear weapons.