The EU-Turkey summit
set for Sunday in Brussels was never going to be easy, but Tuesday’s
news that Turkish forces had shot down a Russian jet on the Syrian
border has raised the political stakes even more in what will be an
unusual effort to find solutions to Europe’s migration crisis.

EU leaders are
hoping to hammer out a deal with Turkey on stemming the flow of
refugees from the Middle East through Turkey to Europe — an
agreement that includes financial and political incentives for Ankara
to cooperate. But key questions remained unanswered ahead of the
meeting with the country’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu.

Even before the
Turkey-Russia incident, the November 13 Paris attacks and subsequent
concerns about border security and the possible link between
migration and terrorism had complicated the debate over refugees.

One of the issues is
to get all countries to contribute to a €3 billion fund that Turkey
wants from the EU to help stem the flow of refugees.

At a summit earlier
this month in Malta, the European Commission put forward a proposal
that asked countries to provide €2.5 billion of the total. This
week it published a legal framework for the plan and pushed countries
“to commit formally their financial share” of the total by
December 21, so that the money could be spent starting in January.

But not all
countries are happy with the arrangement.

“Some member
states say that the European Commission should find more money from
its own budget,” a EU diplomat said.

Under the deal
Germany will have to pay €534 million, the U.K. €410 million,
France €386 million and Italy €281 million. So far only Britain
has openly announced its pledge. Other countries have said they have
earmarked the money in their budgets, according to diplomats.

Sources close to the
talks with Ankara say they are confident that the funding will
eventually be secured from all countries, but one said there is
concern that “the Turks have not attached a clear timeline for this
money.”

The worry among some
EU members, the source said, is that Ankara will want more money at a
later date.

Leaders at the
summit will also focus on approving the joint action plan already
agreed with Ankara in October. The plan envisages supporting the 2.2
million Syrian refugees living in Turkey by giving them access to
education and employment. It also includes a plan to send illegal
migrants now in the EU back to Turkey, starting from October of next
year.

Another possible
area where disagreement could arise is over the issue of setting up
refugee processing centers, known as hotspots, in Turkey. The
Commission had hoped to set up hotspots similar to ones already
running in Greece and Italy, but sources said the Turks remain
opposed to this idea.

“Germany would
like to see hotspots in Turkey and along all the Western Balkan route
to have an orderly flow,” said one diplomat.

There are larger
political questions at stake, too — notably the question of
Turkey’s longstanding application to join the European Union.
Negotiations for its EU accession have been stalled for years over
concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rights record.

But the deal on
cooperating with refugees uses the re-opening of accession talks as
an incentive for Ankara to participate — even though the Commission
said earlier this month that Turkey still has a lot of work to do if
it wants to make progress on its bid.

The EU is also
offering to consider loosening visa restrictions on Turks wanting to
travel to Europe — long an issue between the two sides.

The political
give-and-take makes some countries nervous.

Bowing
in front of Erdoğan is certainly not ideal — EU diplomat

“Bowing in front
of Erdoğan is certainly not ideal,” said one EU diplomat, ”but
we do not have much leverage and I am not even so sure he will
respect any kind of deal.”

But diplomats said
Europe does have leverage when it comes to the accession talks,
especially if negotiation reopens on the chapters on the rule of law
— something Erdoğan, who has been shutting down newspapers and
arresting journalists and judges, could fear.

To get the deal
through, “Turkey must now meet the conditions for opening new
chapters or accelerating the visa facilitation procedure,” said
Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador in Turkey and now a scholar at
Carnegie Europe, a think tank. “This is especially true for
rule-of-law in the context of the accession negotiations.”

And there is another
problem: Cyprus. The eastern Mediterranean island has blocked
Turkey’s accession talks for several years citing the presence of
Turkish troops in the breakaway north of the island.

Last month Cyprus’
foreign affairs minister, Ioannis Kasoulides, told reporters that the
EU must cooperate with Ankara on refugee flows to Europe, but said
his government will not agree to opening accession talks on the rule
of law as long as Turkey does not soften its position on Cyprus.

Turkey is also
asking to have high-level meetings twice a year with the EU,
according to diplomats: one of them in a full summit with European
leaders, similar to what was done with earlier EU applicant countries
that would be debriefed immediately after the talks; and another with
top officials including Council President Donald Tusk, Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker and foreign policy chief Federica
Mogherini.