Michigan's population loss in Census more fuel to Rick Snyder's reform push

AP PhotoCensus Bureau Director Robert Groves announces results for the 2010 U.S. Census at the National Press Club on Tuesday.

LANSING — For the first time in its history, Michigan lost population between 2000 and 2010. With 54,804 fewer residents according to the latest decennial hard count taken by the U.S. Census, the state has the dubious distinction of being the only state to shrink in size.

The practical concerns of a 0.6-percent drop in population are less representation in Congress and the likelihood of less census-based federal aid. But Tuesday’s data release is also one more reminder that Michigan is getting smaller, poorer and older relative to the rest of the nation.

It’s a reminder that Gov.-elect Rick Snyder intends to use in pressing his case that the state has to fundamentally change.

“It just reinforces the need for reinventing Michigan, putting our fiscal house in order and really focusing on creating an economic posture that will allow our young people to stay in the state and get jobs,” said Snyder spokeswoman Geralyn Lasher.

Though local numbers will be released later, preliminary estimates suggest Kent and Ottawa counties gained population. Andy Johnston, director legislative affairs for the Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce, said that while Michigan will lose a seat in Congress, West Michigan could gain clout in Lansing.

The population shift to the Grand Rapids area could mean the addition of a state House seat, Johnston said.

Michigan’s population of 9.94 million in 2000 dropped to 9.88 million in 2010. Because the national population rose 9.7 percent and there’s a fixed number of seats in Congress, one of Michigan’s 15 seats in the U.S. House will be redistributed to the south and west where population growth continues to outpace the Midwest. For a fourth straight decade, Michigan will lose representation in Congress.

The raw population numbers mirror the result of another tough decade that was the 1980s. The 1990 Census revealed population growth of just 0.4 percent. But change within Michigan’s current population is even more profound.

Seniors over the age of 65 made up 12 percent of the population in 2000 and are estimated to make up 16 percent of the total in 2020. The number of children enrolled in Michigan’s public schools has declined by nearly 200,000 since 2000, from 1.65 million to 1.46 million.

At the beginning the decade, Michigan ranked 18th in per-capita personal income that was 4 percent below the national average. Now it’s 15 percent below the average and the state ranks 37th.

Lou Glazer of Ann Arbor-based Michigan Future said states can gain population through immigration, and movement by young professionals and empty nesters.

“States that are growing their populations are getting some combination of the three,” he said. “Those are the groups you have to do well in if you want to grow your population. Michigan’s problem is that we are hardly getting any of the three.”

Michigan will be one of 10 states to lose representation in Congress. The last time Michigan had fewer than 15 seats, illegal whiskey poured in from Canada and the last of the Model Ts were rolling off the assembly line. Michigan had 19 House members after the 1960 census. It dropped to 18 after 1980, 16 after 1990 and 15 after 2000.

David Doyle, a political analyst with Marketing Resource Group in Lansing, says the challenge for the Legislature will be drawing congressional maps that have zero population deviation among them, conform with federal voting rights laws and Michigan statute that says districts should match municipal boundaries and county lines.

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With Republicans in complete charge of the redistricting process next year, a likely outcome would be an expansion of two majority black districts in Detroit expanding west and south to take in more territory in Wayne County represented by U.S. Rep. John Dingell, D-Dearborn.

Another sticky area is the 1st Congressional District, the largest east of the Mississippi River that stretches from Ironwood to Bay City. Represented for the next two years by U.S. Rep.-elect Dan Benishek, a district with 646,000 residents in 2009 will have to expand to capture the additional 64,000 residents to meet the 710,767 residents each district will require.

Accommodating population, geography and the desires of lawmakers who like their districts just fine makes “for a difficult process under the circumstances,” Doyle said.

Even with one less member, seniority means that Michigan will have plenty of clout in Congress. Republican U.S. Reps. Fred Upton of St. Joseph, Dave Camp of Midland and Mike Rogers of Brighton will all chair committees in the next Congress. On the Senate side, Democrats Carl Levin of Detroit and Debbie Stabenow of Lansing also are committee chairs.

Michigan’s traditional heft in Congress hasn’t translated into federal aid. With fewer residents, Michigan can expect even less population-based federal assistance for the state, schools and local governments. Billions in federal aid for education, housing, transportation and public safety are distributed all or in part on population. In 2008, Michigan, the eighth largest state, ranked 20th nationally in such aid on a per-capita basis, $1,609 versus the $1,469 national average.

“With the lower census numbers, it will likely mean fewer federal dollars flowing into Michigan at a time when the need for services remains high. State leaders will be challenged to make up for this loss of federal funding, while providing needed services,” said Karen Holcomb-Merrill of the Michigan League for Human Services.

One issue Michigan probably doesn’t have to worry about is water. Despite the move of political influence from the Great Lakes states — Ohio and New York are losing two congressional seats; Illinois and Pennsylvania one each — to the south and west, new state and federal laws will protect Michigan’s greatest asset. The 2008 Great Lakes Compact with Canada overwhelmingly ratified by Congress bars large-scale diversions outside of the basin.

“Congress has approved over 30 regional water compacts in the past century and has never even considered legislation repealing a compact against the wishes of a (compact) state,” said Noah Hall, a law professor at Wayne State University. “A few Great Lakes seats lost won’t have a political fallout on this issue.”