Friday Estimates: Panda Tops Tepid Friday

January 30th, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the chart on Friday with $10.5 million. There are not a lot of animated films that open this time of year, so it is hard to find a good comparison. If the film has the same internal multiplier as The LEGO Movie, then it will earn $42.4 million over the weekend, which would be a record opening for January. However, that movie was an original film, while this is the third film in its franchise. That will probably hurt it enough that $40 million is a more likely number. That's still a good opening, plus it is earning much more in China ($40.34 million after just two days of release) so there’s little reason to worry about its financial prospects.

The Finest Hours managed second place on Friday with $3.31 million. However, like most opening films, Friday will likely be its best single day and it will quickly drop into fourth place over the weekend with just under $10 million. This is exactly what was predicted, which is good news for me, but terrible news for Disney. On a more positive note, we’ve received word that the movie cost $70 million to make and not $85 million. It’s still going to lose a lot of money, but not as much as previously anticipated.

Fifty Shades of Black only managed $2.25 million on Friday, putting it on pace to earn just over $6 million over the weekend. Its reviews have slowly filtered in and it is not good news. Some reviews say that when it goes after Fifty Shades of Grey and points out how horrible that movie is, it is funny. However, when it tries to make a joke of its own, then it falls on its face. On the positive side, it only cost $5 million to make, so it likely won’t lose money. It’s not going to make enough money to encourage more studios to make further spoofs, but that’s probably for the best considering how bad the genre has become.

Jane Got a Gun bombed hard. It only managed $277,000 on Friday and will finish the weekend with well under $1 million. The reviews are not good, but at 40% positive, they are not that bad either. Maybe blame the marketing, or lack thereof, and the general bad buzz around the film.