Saturday, August 16, 2008

I wanted to pick UGA to win it, I really did, but I just couldn't. With injuries, an apparent lack of focus, and that schedule, I think they're fighting an uphill battle this season. Here's how I see it shaking out:

1. FloridaComing off something a disappointing season (in their eyes), the Gators seem to have all the pieces in place for another MNC run this season. Assuming the defense has improved, Tim Tebow and the Gator offense will be on the field more often this year, which can be only mean good things for a team that averaged 42.5 ppg last year. With a more balanced attack planned, the Gators could be even more dangerous offensively this year, particularly with a softer schedule than Georgia.Best Case Scenario:The offense gels early and the defense has learned from its ups and downs last season. The Gators go 14-0 bringing home a 3rd straight BCS title for the SEC.Worst Case ScenarioThe defense is still soft, their injury situation catches up with them, SEC coaches figure out ways to contain Tebow and Co., and the Gators drop to 2nd or 3rd in the East.

2. GeorgiaYes, they’re preseason #1 in both polls and the most talented team in the best conference in America. The problem – of course – is the other things: the arrests, the injuries, and that brutal schedule that includes road games to LSU, South Carolina, and Auburn. Also, I’m not as enamored with Stafford as many people are. All the tangible skills are there, but good decision making is not always there. UGA was the best team in the country at the end of the season last year, and while they’re certainly capable of carrying that over to 2008, I’ll need to see it before I believe it.Best Case Scenario:This one’s fairly obvious – they pick up where they left off and obliterate everything in their sight. A BCS Title is a real possibility here.Worst Case ScenarioThe “bad” Stafford shows up in big games, the shenanigans continue to run wild, they fold under the mounting pressure and drop to 8-4 or even 7-5. Can’t see that happening though.

3. TennesseeThe surprise winner of the SEC East last season is back for more in 08. They’ll have to replace OC Cutcliffe as well as their QB, but HC Fulmer’s been around the block a time or two. Their schedule includes tough road games to Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina, but they get Florida and Bama at home in two major payback games for blowouts last season. The Vols have a real chance to surprise some folks this season.

Best Case Scenario:Crompton steps in and the offense doesn’t miss a beat. They knock off Florida at home, UGA falters and the Vols return to ATL for the SEC CG.

Worst Case Scenario:Offense sputters with Ainge and Cutcliffe gone, the 4-week span with vs UF, @UGA, vs NIU, @AU goes badly and the Vols fold up shop for the year.

4. South CarolinaI was guilty of jumping on the Gamecock bandwagon last year, predicting them to win the SEC East. I looked like a genius for 7 games… not so much for the last 5. This year I’m not buying it. Too much uncertainty at the QB spot and I’m not convinced that the Ol’ Ball Coach really has it in him anymore. I think USC will be good, but it’ll only be enough for a 4th place finish in the East.

Best Case Scenario:Spurrier rediscovers the magic touch, DC Ellis Johnson rejuvenates the D, someone steps up at the QB position and the Gamecocks make it to the Outback or Liberty Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:Team plays like it did the last month of last year, no consistency from QB, Stephen Garcia continues to dominate the headlines for all the wrong reasons, and Clemson again knocks the Gamecocks out of bowl contention.

5. KentuckyThe Wildcats were ranked for the first time since 1985 and won bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1951-52. But the key pieces to that team – QB Woodson, RB Little, and WRs Burton and Johnson – are gone. The defense should actually be better, as they’re “only” having to replace LB Woodyard, but the offense will take a big step back, particularly without QB Pulley. They get Arkansas and Vandy at home, but they’ll need to pull an upset to even reach a bowl game.

Best Case Scenario:The defense lives up to its potential, they find a QB who can get the ball to Dicky Lyons, and RBs Dixon and Locke improve as the season goes along. Even then, I can’t see a bowl game for the ‘Cats.

Worst Case Scenario:If the defense doesn’t play like it’s capable and no one steps up at QB, it could be very ugly for UK this year.

6. VanderbiltLast year was supposed to be most recent “the year” that Bobby Johnson finally gets Vanderbilt to a bowl game. As usual, Vandy was sitting at home come bowl season. They had an established QB, an All-SEC WR, and a proven defense. Now they have none of that. With a killer schedule to boot, this could be a less than enjoyable year for the ‘Dores.

Best Case Scenario:Jay Cutler, Earl Bennett, and Hunter Hillenmeyer are all mysteriously awarded extra years of eligibility and Florida and Georgia forfeit their games.

Worst Case Scenario:With that schedule, 2-10 is not outside the realm of possibility…

4 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Good grief, I've never seen so many folks say the equivalent of this: "Florida's defense will be much better than last year......". Why? They've lost several starters and key backups in an already porous secondary to injury, the dline isn't set for a 1st team unit, much less a second and uber recruit omar hunter has back issues. You guys need to actually analyze UF's defense instead of wishing and hoping they're better. I've yet to see one shred of logic concerning just how this unit is going to be so improved. they might be worse.

Hey guy, You picked S.Car to win last year b/c you're an idiot. Tennessee and Clemson should have been wins last year (unbelievable). Nix is gone (no more playing crappy defenses in the last minutes of the game to allow the team to score). Rychleski (enough said there!). 17 returning starters! Year 4 (all but 7 players are Spurriers which is still an Elite Coach). Now you're not buying into Carolina...what's new!? You are like all NON Carolina fans. You are a hater. Florida's secondary was torched last year (last in SEC) like S.Carolina was (last in SEC) in the run. Teaching someone to stop the run is easier than stopping the pass. Florida is not better than Georgia right now but everyone clings to Florida JUST BECAUSE. Tebow and Harvin cannot do everything and it will show this year. If Carolina takes the SEC East, stay off the bandwagon.

Please, for crying out loud, use decent logic in your analysis. If you think that the Gators are better than the Dawgs, fine. If you think that Tebow and Harvin are so great that they can compensate for a horrible defense, fine. Just don't "assume the defense has improved" when there is no evidence to back it up. How about the 5, and counting, players the Gators have lost for the year with injuries? Word is Harvin's recovery isn't going as well as expected, and one of the knee injuries happens to be one of the "improved" DBs that you are pinning your hopes to. On to the Dawgs. You site schedule, arrests, and injuries as your main faults with Georgia. If you don't think that we can navigate the schedule, that's understandable. Personally, I don't think too many NFL teams could go through it perfectly. Let's look at the "Gauntlet" for a second. Ga Southern; No chance of an App St repeat. They have too much to replace from last year. Cent. Michigan; Could be interesting for a half. They have a good Offense and QB, but they don't have the athletes on defense to stop us and, quite frankly, will wilt between the Hedges in the September heat. @S Carolina; 1st SEC game, revenge factor. Tons of problems on offense. Close, low scoring game. @AZ State; They have some athletes and a great coach. They do not, however, have an offensive line. The best returning lineman quit a few weeks ago. The best from a unit that gave up 50+ sacks last year. Not even close, and might be a shut out. Bama; Revenge game for them. Experienced QB, but not very successful in pressure situations, ie. Ga and Auburn games last year. Ending may be similar to last year. Tennessee; Revenge game for us for the last two embarassing losses. They are replacing Ainge and Cutcliffe. We have a bye week before this game. Enough said. Vandy; always scary, but not this year. @LSU; Honestly, we catch a break by getting this game at 3:30, but they too are replacing too many weapons on offense from a team that wouldn't have beaten Georgia at the end of the year last year. Cocktail Party; Revenge game for them, Tebow and Harvin (If either is healthy). That is all they have going for them. (See above) Please... Spare me. All the talk about the celebration, Meyer needs to get a life. That had nothing to do with the outcome of last years game and will have nothing to do with this year's game. @Kentucky; No Andre Woodson. Enough said. @ Auburn; Most likely game to lose. Revenge for last two years, but they do have a completely new offense. That shouldn't mean too much that late in the season, though. Also, the last game of a brutal stretch. North Ave Trade School; Gimmick offense won't fly with the big boys. This ain't I-AA or the Navy anymore. We will also have a week off to recover and get prepared. We may set a points scored record. SECCC; It's the SEC Championship Game. What else needs to be said. Will be a rematch of an earlier game. Hard to win those, but possible. Next, you site off-season arrests as a reason we won't win the East. Please do a little more research on WHO was arrested, and what impact (length of suspension) it will have before making such a claim. Based on the spring depth chart, the only starters arrested were Boling-RG 1 game, Lomax-DE no games (Charge dismissed), Henson-Long Snapper suspended indefinitely, and Sturdivant-LT no suspension. Out of those, I only see one who will miss more than the Georgia Southern game due to suspension, that being Henson. BTW, Henson was suspended and didn't attend the Sugar Bowl, and his replacement had plenty of work in that game. The other players were BACKUPS, and only one other player will miss anything other than Ga Southern and Cent. Michigan is a backup free safety. Finally, I will address your argument about injuries. Sturdivant's injury is the most damaging, but it is all relative. How can it be that a player who didn't even garner Honorable Mention All-SEC be such an irreplaceable player. Truth is, he was, and still is, very important to the team, but we have plenty of options to fill the viod for this year. "But nobody else has the experience," you say. Well, neither did he last year and I think he did a more than adequate job. There is nothing that says that Coach Searles won't do the same this season with another player. Southerland most likely will be back by the South Carolina game. All of this being said, I still love your blog and will continue to faithfully read it.