Fantasy football: Dozen of NFL games to digest on

Sunday

Nov 25, 2012 at 6:00 AM

Josh Bousquet Fantasy Sports

A few weeks back, I wrote of how one shouldn’t let the NFL’s pesky Thursday games affect fantasy strategy. That was when there was only one of those contests, though, and not the three we trudged through this week as our stomachs churned through their trough feedings.

There are also those who can’t believe the putrid offerings of Felix Jones (6 rushes, 14 yards), Shonn Greene (Bilal Powell outdid you again?) and your mother-in-law (is it too much to expect two dishes warm at the same time?).

In the spirit of the season, it wouldn’t be right to think everything is decided; we should instead be thankful that there are still 12 games to be played today (even if tomorrow gives us a lackluster Eagles-Panthers matchup that looked much better before those teams played any games this season).

The early games give us the Falcons and Buccaneers in a premier NFC South matchup that looks even better now that Atlanta has shown some wear (losing two weeks ago to the Saints then squeaking by Arizona as Matt Ryan threw five interceptions) and Tampa Bay has won four in a row.

That less-than-lackluster performance against Arizona seemed wild for Ryan and the Falcons’ passing game, which had been such a steady unit this season. The Cardinals had lost five straight going into the game and were supposed to be easy pickins. They proved a much tougher bird, though, which should not have been completely surprising, seeing as they have the fourth-ranked passing defense in the league, giving up just 204.7 yards per game.

It was strength against strength as the Falcons’ passing offense also ranks fourth (292.9 yards/game) and get a much more favorable matchup this week as no one gives up more yards through the air (312.6) than Tampa Bay. And no one gives up fewer yards on the ground (81.8), so look for big days from Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

When the clock turns to the 4 o’clock games, we will finally get to know who will play quarterback for the 49ers, even if all indications are that Colin Kaepernick will get to go again, even over the no-longer concussed Alex Smith.

This really isn’t a surprise, since Smith looked real good with a clipboard as Kaepernick ripped up a strong Bears defense for 243 yards and a couple touchdowns Monday night. And if he could look that strong and confident against one of the league’s elite defensive units, including not throwing a pick against a team that leads the league with 19 interceptions, he deserves a chance to see what he can do against a lesser unit.

And the Saints’ pass defense is only a little bit lesser than those last-place Bucs, still allowing more than 300 yards through the air, at an even 305. That should give Kaepernick big stats and some confidence. If that leads to San Francisco actually developing a passing game, it could finally lead to some real fantasy value for receiver Michael Crabtree, who already has four TDs in the last three games, and may lead us to seeking late-season insurance in Mario Manningham and, dare I say, Randy Moss.

Today’s late game also promises some through-the-air heroics, which is always a possibility whenever Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers takes the field. This wouldn’t always seem the case when he took the field against the Giants, but that traditional defensive powerhouse has shown wear this season, ranking 25th in the league and giving up 257.8 passing yards per game.

Potentially making Rodgers’ task even easier is the possible return of receiver Greg Jennings, who has not played since September. Not that this ever seemed to faze Rodgers. He makes stars out of whoever runs downfield for him, elevating Jordy Nelson last year and giving us Randall Cobb this go-round, who has scored seven touchdowns since Jennings went down.

Cobb stands to lose some value with the return of Jennings, but it can only help Rodgers, who should end the year again as the top fantasy quarterback after things looked rough for the Packers with their 2-3 start. Rodgers threw four interceptions in that stretch, but has thrown only two in Green Bay’s current five-game winning streak.