Classic week of winter weather coming up with a series of fronts through the week introducing colder and colder air. By next weekend should see 850Ts well below zero, so snow levels dropping into the subalpine. Coldies, small hail, and probably the odd rumble. Looks a touch too mild for snow here in the Dandenongs, but could see some around slightly higher spots such as Trentham and Mt Macedon township.

Significant rain, particularly in the usual wet spots with totals likely to land in the 50-100mm range in the northeast, Otways, South Gippsland and outer Yarra Valley. Thinking perhaps 50mm here.

Should kick off the ski season, though snow levels will be fairly high at the start.

4.4mm here overnight, pretty much what the models suggested for the first bit. Was a wild and windy night

Central areas were always going to be a bit rainshadowed with the best out west and on the ranges. Handy falls west and north central.

Progs look good with CMC, GFS and EC all having 20-50mm falls south and ranges, extending onto the northern plains. Falls above 100mm locally. Only the far northwest, rainshadowed plains west of Melbourne and East Gippsland look like struggling. EC has a max of 6C here on Saturday and same on Sunday so nice and chilly.

15mm overnight here at Mt Macedon.
Looks like a nice cold week on the way
Weather.US is predicting the warmest temp for a week will be today if we reach 7C. Then its going to get chilly with maxs on Saturday and Sunday of 1C and 2C respectively. Probably a non-gardening inside weekend for me!

Dumper of a shower here with 2 mm in about 5 minutes. Little blue spot on radar. Obviously a bit of instability with the colder air moving in. Low levels are nice and moist with the trees poking into the clouds.

Progs tonight look even better. Going for 50-100mm here now. Front becomes cutoff with a big low blocking to our south. Scenario will really clock up big totals in the usual wet spots. Getting cold, but not overly so. 850Ts dipping to about -3 to -4C so probably some sleet in the Dandenongs but a touch to mild for snow. Mount Macedon and Trentham should be just high enough.

The cold air goes a long way, though, so should see snow run along the Great Divide possibly into southeast Queensland.

Plenty of showers here atm with nearly 4mm today and just over 8mm for the thread.

Nice front inbound, which should reach Melbourne about 5pm. Is weakening, but still likely to pack some gusty winds and heavy showers.

Progs pretty similar this morning. CMC and GFS unchanged. EC single run is a bit drier (except for the west coast where it produces very heavy falls locally above 150mm) but the ensemble members are tending to be more similar to previous runs, so suspect it is just a wiggle.

Latest GFS run 18z showing a significant polar vortex pulse with upper cold air breaching over the Gulf of Carpentaria. 528 thickness line launching into central Victoria with a 500 hPa polar injection from near 70 degrees south. That will be snow on the Dandenong's Saturday night if it verifies.