Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 10: more votes, small shifts

Day 10 into our vote projection model and we really don’t see that much of a change from Day 9. More votes have been cast and Democrats inch ever closer, but there was not a drastic shift in the electorate.

Turnout Summary: As of this morning, 6.8% of voters in the State of Florida have cast their ballots (though that number is probably smaller, as I am waiting for the bookclosing report from the State of Florida for the general election). Turnout rate among Republicans is at 8.64%, while the Democratic turnout rate is at 6.97%. Minor/NPA turnout is at 4.39%. The Enthusiasm Gap is at -7.71%, favoring the Republicans but shifting .22% toward the Democrats since yesterday.

Bottom Line: The projected generic Republican vote stateside is currently at 49.85%, while the projected generic Democratic vote is at 46.7%, others 3.15%, a shift of .23% to the Democrats.

Details: Not much has changed since yesterday’s report. Some margins have changed but not much. However, the vote projection map also has a new tab for voter turnout numbers. And, as you can see, more votes from Broward and Miami-Dade are starting to come in.

What to watch: As was mentioned previously, not much has changed overall. But if the local trends continue, there might be some elections to watch. First, the 16th Congressional District might be in play. Yes, I know that Democrats say “they can take Vern Buchanan’s seat” every cycle and are always disappointed. But the numbers are looking for Democrats. As of right now, Buchanan will still win, but watch the margin.

Another race to watch is the 8th in Brevard County. As I mentioned a few days ago, Democratic enthusiasm seems to be quite high in Brevard County, which will benefit Sanjay Patel. As of right now 8.49% of Democrats have turned out to vote in Brevard County compared to only 7.74% for Republicans. If the perfect storm hits (high turnout in early vote and a lackluster Election Day), then this race could be one to watch on Election Day. Bill Posey still has the edge, but watch this space.

Another race to watch will be, interestingly, the 1st Congressional District. No, Matt Gaetz will not be defeated, but the race could be closer than expected. As of right now, CD1 has a Cook Political Report Partisan Rating of +22, which means that Gaetz should get around 68% to 69% of the vote. But right now in Escambia County, the projected Republican vote is only at 56.94%. In Santa Rosa County, that number is at 63.5%. But in Okaloosa County, one of the surprise counties of this election cycle, the Republican projected vote is at 60.08%. There is a possibility (and I stress the work possibility) that Gaetz could get near 60% of the votes if, again, there is a strong early vote and a lackluster Election Day.