House and Senate can’t agree on budget process

The prospects that Patty Murray and Paul Ryan could reach a deal are dimming. | AP Photos

The differences between the House GOP and the Senate Democratic plans are clear, with the House GOP plan balancing the budget after 10 years but extracting deep cuts in spending and ultimately converting Medicare to a voucher program. The Senate Democratic plan doesn’t balance the budget at all but does contemplate nearly $1 trillion in tax hikes along with equal parts spending cuts.

Democrats argue that going to conference will work in their favor by directly pitting the two budgets against each other. They believe the juxtaposition of the two proposals will pit tax increases for the rich against spending cuts that affect the poor and cutting Medicare and Social Security against improving the programs.

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“It’s just one more thing Republicans are doing to hold up this process,” a Democratic aide said. “It’s one more fight they’re having to protect the wealthiest Americans.”

Regardless of the argument over how to iron out their pre-conference differences, no one is at all confident that a conference could even produce a compromise budget. Both sides openly admit that the space between the two proposals is so wide it might not be bridgeable.

Going to conference without a quick resolution in sight might cause more problems for Republicans. After at the most 20 days, House Democrats would be able to force votes on “motions to instruct,” putting Republicans on the spot over controversial issues like Medicare and taxes.

But Van Hollen argues that could force compromise.

“It’s workable. Once you commit yourself to a conference committee process, then the wheels have to start turning,” Van Hollen said.

Murray is sticking to her talking point that she remains confident a conference will happen.

“I think we are both trying to figure out a path forward,” Murray told POLITCO last week. “And I obviously believe that the best path forward is to have regular order, which is what they’ve been calling for. But we’re talking about the concepts.”

Ryan’s office referred to a joint message the two chairs released weeks ago when asked about the prospects of going to conference.

Meanwhile, the congressional maneuvering could be for naught.

President Barack Obama has begun reaching out to Senate Republicans to try to negotiate his own grand bargain.

White House officials have been forming a negotiating group, including several senators named by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as those most likely to find common ground on a deficit deal. The group is expected to meet soon.

If that effort is successful, a deal could be hatched by Obama and this group and handed to the budget conference just to give it a final stamp of approval. Or a whole new piece of legislation could be drafted.

Budget Committee ranking member Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) said a congressional conference process could work but that Democrats were toeing the White House line.

“They won’t bend unless the president says so,” Sessions said. “Which is unfortunate, because senators don’t work for the president, they work for the people and they should make independent decisions.”

CORRECTION: This article has been corrected to state that motions to instruct could take as many as 20 days before they become in order.