A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.

States and towns are left looking around, wondering where all the revenue went.

Businesses have begun to fold up shop.The FBI, SEC and local law enforcement are finally thinking about doing their jobs.

And most importantly, people for generations to come will stop looking at homes as lottery tickets. They'll consider price to rent and price to income ratios before they 'buy'. They'll think twice about paying an uneducated stooge a percent of the selling price for doing nothing. And they'll read the legal documents and do their own research before they sign.

70 comments:

I agree with everything but the last bit. How many boom/bust cycles has housing (and not just in the US housing market, BTW) gone through in the last 100 years? 3? More?

Instead of swearing off the housing ladder for "generations", how about 30 years or 1-2 generations?

Gotta go powder my nose and read the foreclosure notices. Then I'll look into some puts in the hospitality industry, cause I'm thinking the era of expensive hotels and hookers is winding up pretty fast.

Wrong to include and blame Clinton,Pelosi, Reid and Dodd...they don't make policy, they've just made some policy proposals, as thier impact on the American economy has been nil.The guilty are the managers and policymakers of the American economy for the past 7 years..that's Bush/Cheney, their Republican lapdog apparatchiks and all the assorted scum bags who voted for and still support them.All the a**holes who voted for them twice, deserve this bendover assault.

Hell Keith, this blog is beginning to write itself. Go to Yahoo! Finance, for example, and today's headlines make this site seem overly optimistic by comparision. And that's just the headlines. Pretty scary.

I disagree bearman. This bubble was obvious even in the mid 1990s. If Gore had been elected, 911 would still have happened. We would still have attacked Afghanistan - probably by aerial bombardment (ala Clinton/Kosovo) which would have allowed Bin Laden to get away as before). Gore wouldn't have sent in ground troops until it was clear the Taliban were still a threat - which would have escalated the ground war in Afghanistan beyond what we've seen under Bush. A hurricane would still have broken the levies in New Orleans and greedy speculators everywhere would still have driven the prices of houses to insane levels.

No, I think they are all selfish bastards, who fiddled while Rome burned. Even now, no one seems to see that we need a fiscal conservative, and not a socialist messiah, in the Whitehouse. Hint, there aren't any running.

Every flipper knew what he was getting in to. Every old couple selling out the equity in their home for cash was a grown up. Every person trading up to larger and larger homes year after year was smart enough to know the possible downside. Greed did this. Living beyond our means did this. Democrats and Republicans together did this. Remember when your next door neighbor was re-landscaping his yard all summer three years ago? Remember when your sister-in-law put in new granite countertops in her nearly new house? Remember the long lines at Home Depot? Those are the people to blame. If Bush was truly a heartless, imperialist scumbag trying to turn Iraq into New Texas like his enemies portray, we'd have the spoils of war to bouy us up. He just ignored the problem like an idiot. Obama will handle it differently - he will not ignore it (heaven help us).

Since I have been around here since the beginning, I am amazed that it has all come true - and then some! Today was a watershed day - I am surprised the market was down only 200 - not 2000. . .my beloved CHF (Swiss Franc) is at $1.00 - when I started commenting on this blog it was about 82 cents. . .the Euro - what can one say - I remember not that long ago it was 84 cents. . .

As one analysts said today, "if Bear Stearns is toast, what does that say for other financial institutions?"

I guess the Fed will just print a few trillion dollars and nationalize all the debt. . .then the USD will be worth about 30 to 40% less than today, and Gas for your car will be $6 to $7 dollars.

This reminds me so much of the savings and loan bust all over again - only to the eleventy-billionth power.

I'd like to think of Americans as taking their lumps, learning their lessons from such debacles, and moving on - you know, pioneer spirit and rugged individualism. But dammit it - we keep making the same stupid mistakes over and over and we're now weaker because of our short-sightedness.

This time the country might just be changed forever financially and economically, as it was following the roaring 20's and devastating 30's.

America will be back someday (I think), but we're going to be "slumming it" for a few years, IMO.

Poetic justice perhaps for our excesses over the last 10.

Those that lived within their means might actually be able to buy a home and yada yada yada, but our income tax outlays and future expenditures for food and oil will exponentially higher.

It is unfortunate that we have ended at this state. I see no upside, profit taking or opportunity. We are hostage to the energy equation. Prices will not go down, only up. Commodities are the currency, therefore grow your own. Realistically, you must protect what you value the most; family, friends, community. No one really cares about you, unless you have what they need.Good luck!Dan from VT

So basically we are going to the way the market and economy should be and should have always been in regards to housing, its sale-purchase and financing? Gee, what a novel concept, why would that cause so much upheaval? Unless, nah really everybody at the settlement table was just a worthless parasite shoving another fee for nothing on the "Hud-1" disclosure that was suppose to keep everyone honest, man.

I just want to thank all of the of using bubble bloggers. I discovered many of you in 2004 or 2005. I had just turned 30 and felt like a loser because I did not have a house and started reading more about purchasing when I discovered this world of contrarians. You saved me from making one of the worst decisions of my life and gave me comfort in a world gone mad. I just wish I had found you before I took out student loans.

SO what the heck do I do. I'm a saver. Where do I place my meager monthly deposits into the savings account? Or should I load up on paying off the fixed rate student loans ( they are at 2.7%) I don't want to get gold because it is already on the high end. Where do I go? What do I do?

“But they are still selling i phones”. But people are getting $600 checks, but they raised the debt limits of Fannie and Freddie, But the fed is taking 200 billion in junk, But yesterday S&P said the write downs were over and it was all going to be sunshine and lollypops from here on out. But but but said the FB gently rocking back and forth as the sheriff knocked on the door.

I love how George the younger tries to distract us all by announcing the capture of a high value terroist that happened months ago. Classic W. This system sic in worthy of collapse.

To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time when the world was powered by the black fuel and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all.

Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything and became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here in this blighted place that he learned to live again.

Boy, if I knew that the Fed could bail out any Wall Street Firm or Hedge fun ,I might of played my cards different .

Course there is always the "emergency play" that might come into play more and more .

Does anybody think there is a up side to the markets for a good long time . What Company is next .......how much will the taxpayers be on the hook for after this is all said and done . As a taxpayer ,I don't like to make sub-prime loans to the same crowd that caused this mess. Can't we at least get some interest out of this ,or maybe a car .Guess not ,we only get 600 bucks from the stimulus package .Our children will live in a unfriendly dog eat dog world because of global market competition and unless you are a CEO of a big firm or maybe a stockholder ,good luck on wages increasing .Good bye America as I knew you for many years .

keef keef keef, the GSE bailout will not be in the trillions. They only hold or insure $5 trillion in mortgage debt. Less than 10% is Alt A. Let's suppose all 10% of the Alt A and 5% of the of the prime portfolio go into foreclosure. That means you have 15% of the $5 trillion in foreclosure. That comes out to $750 billion in bad debt. If they can recover only 60% of the value of those homes, that is a 40% loss on $750 billion. That's $300 billion in losses. They each currently have about $10 billion or so in cash.

Oh boy here come the leftwing kooks and their victim mentality again. Nobody forced anybody to sign the loan papers. Nobody forced the lenders to make bad loans. Nobody forced the investors to buy those mortgages and CDOs. Nobody forced the builders to build millions of unwanted houses and condos. Nobody forced investors to invest in the banks and homebuilders. The way I see it, everybody is getting what they deserve. If you want to live in a free society, it requires responsibility and vigilance. Otherwise, you can move to Cuba and have el Commandante take care of you from cradle to crave as if you are retarded.

This is a Republican debacle all the way. They controlled the Supreme Court, the Fed, both houses of Congress for 4 years while the ground work for this disaster was being laid, and they had a 85% approval rating after 9-11 with the power to do whatever they wanted.

They tore up the Constitution. They let the NAR, big banks, and big oil take control. They crushed any effect the EPA or any regulators had. They simply handed the keys over to the super greedy with no oversight what so ever. They got Joe 6 pack fighting over meaningless issues like gay marriage while their boys trashed America.

The result has been a disaster of epic proportions.

The Dems had very, very little to do with this mess. Bush vetoed any attempts made to help the situation anyway. Not that the Dems are great by any stretch.....but this is a GOP led mess.

By New York Governor Eliot SpitzerThe Washington PostFeb. 14, 2008Several years ago, state attorneys general and others involved in consumer protection began to notice a marked increase in a range of predatory lending practices by mortgage lenders. Some were misrepresenting the terms of loans, making loans without regard to consumers' ability to repay, making loans with deceptive "teaser" rates that later ballooned astronomically, packing loans with undisclosed charges and fees, or even paying illegal kickbacks. These and other practices, we noticed, were having a devastating effect on home buyers. In addition, the widespread nature of these practices, if left unchecked, threatened our financial markets.Even though predatory lending was becoming a national problem, the Bush administration looked the other way and did nothing to protect American homeowners. In fact, the government chose instead to align itself with the banks that were victimizing consumers.

Predatory lending was widely understood to present a looming national crisis. This threat was so clear that as New York attorney general, I joined with colleagues in the other 49 states in attempting to fill the void left by the federal government. Individually, and together, state attorneys general of both parties brought litigation or entered into settlements with many subprime lenders that were engaged in predatory lending practices. Several state legislatures, including New York's, enacted laws aimed at curbing such practices.

What did the Bush administration do in response? Did it reverse course and decide to take action to halt this burgeoning scourge? As Americans are now painfully aware, with hundreds of thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure and our markets reeling, the answer is a resounding no.

Not only did the Bush administration do nothing to protect consumers, it embarked on an aggressive and unprecedented campaign to prevent states from protecting their residents from the very problems to which the federal government was turning a blind eye.

Let me explain: The administration accomplished this feat through an obscure federal agency called the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The OCC has been in existence since the Civil War. Its mission is to ensure the fiscal soundness of national banks. For 140 years, the OCC examined the books of national banks to make sure they were balanced, an important but uncontroversial function. But a few years ago, for the first time in its history, the OCC was used as a tool against consumers.

In 2003, during the height of the predatory lending crisis, the OCC invoked a clause from the 1863 National Bank Act to issue formal opinions preempting all state predatory lending laws, thereby rendering them inoperative. The OCC also promulgated new rules that prevented states from enforcing any of their own consumer protection laws against national banks. The federal government's actions were so egregious and so unprecedented that all 50 state attorneys general, and all 50 state banking superintendents, actively fought the new rules.

But the unanimous opposition of the 50 states did not deter, or even slow, the Bush administration in its goal of protecting the banks. In fact, when my office opened an investigation of possible discrimination in mortgage lending by a number of banks, the OCC filed a federal lawsuit to stop the investigation.

Throughout our battles with the OCC and the banks, the mantra of the banks and their defenders was that efforts to curb predatory lending would deny access to credit to the very consumers the states were trying to protect. But the curbs we sought on predatory and unfair lending would have in no way jeopardized access to the legitimate credit market for appropriately priced loans. Instead, they would have stopped the scourge of predatory lending practices that have resulted in countless thousands of consumers losing their homes and put our economy in a precarious position.

When history tells the story of the subprime lending crisis and recounts its devastating effects on the lives of so many innocent homeowners, the Bush administration will not be judged favorably. The tale is still unfolding, but when the dust settles, it will be judged as a willing accomplice to the lenders who went to any lengths in their quest for profits. So willing, in fact, that it used the power of the federal government in an unprecedented assault on state legislatures, as well as on state attorneys general and anyone else on the side of consumers. [emphasis added]

BS going bankrupt is, as Keith said, the beginning of the end. This is a company that was tops in the debt markets...and it is just about gone...it would be a long shot for the firm to continue on as it has. Steve Forbes confirmed this tonight, saying it would probably be sold off in pieces. Now just think about all those other financial companies with as bad or worse balance sheets...yes, we're fucked. Commercial and Investment bank failures will happen this year.

I've liquidated most of my retirement holdings. The rest will go on Monday. I will also liquidate my private stock holdings on Monday as well...not too much there since most of my non-retirement assets are in cash but I want to be out of stocks ASAP. The market decline may not happen Monday, or the day after, but it will happen this year...I think Dow 10,000 and possibly as low as 8,000.

Will look at safer investments: gold, commodities, and foreign currencies.

I am scared shitless after today. WHAT HAPPENED TO BEAR IS ABSOLUTELY NOT NORMAL! IT IS HUUUUUUGGGEEEEE!

The land of the Americano is slowly decaying away like a putrid carcass of a rotten whale washing up on a crowded beach for all the world eyes to see, view, commentate on the state of the once almighty nation, the land of the Snapper Turtle.

Who can we blame on this retro-deed except ourselves ? The mentality of the current Americano is just amazing if not stupefying. Empty of feeling, duty, obligation, morality, honor, sense of self-worthiness, the only way to go for the Americano is to be roasted slowly skewered from mouth to ass on a green Chinese bamboo stick, all sizzling nicely, fat popping, juices dripping over a bed of white hot charcoal.

A nation with most of its dwellers obese, fat, diabetic, and plain ugly like a chimpanzee. An excellent display of this specimen is "BORKAFATTY" AKA The Pig.

Such is the fate of the fat-ass Americano. What a lowdown stinky shame for such a great nation once !

CNN host Lou Dobbs says that the New World Order can be defeated but only if "Americans awaken and soon," as he attacked the Bush administration's "shameless" destruction of U.S. sovereignty on a nationally syndicated radio show.

"What we have permitted in allowing the Bush administration to have effectively further reduced our sovereignty and respect for our laws - it's been a shameless, shameless period in American history that we're going to have to reverse," Dobbs told the Alex Jones Show.

Keith please give me some practical advise. I want to invest in Gold . But I dont have alot of money. I have about $1000. can you to me whether to buy america eagle coins, ETF Gold, or gold certficate. Also please refer me to a trust worthy company. I have followed you for the past year and consider you my sole investment advisor besides Peter Schiff.

As a legal noose appears to be tightening around the Bush/Cheney/Rove inner circle, a shocking government report shows the floor under the legitimacy of their alleged election to the White House is crumbling.

The latest critical confirmation of key indicators that the election of 2004 was stolen comes in an extremely powerful, penetrating report from the General Accounting Office that has gotten virtually no mainstream media coverage.

Do you really think that collapsing the currency wasn't planned? Do you really think it matters who's president? Hillary, Obama or McCain? They're just puppets. Do you want to know who really runs the world.

Wake up people. There's much more going on in this world than sub prime mortgages and elections. First, their was the European Union. Next is going be the North American Union with our sovereignty and constitutional rights stripped away (or already stripped). You don't want to know what happens next.

YouTube: "Naomi Wolf" The End of America. 47 mins

Google (Video): "The Endgame"-Alex Jones 2hrs19mins

Watching Naomi Wolf's video first will help you understand "The Endgame".

Never in my life would I have thought that I would have believed what's contained in the videos. It's scary stuff folks. I highly recommend watching both videos.

the rich will get richer and the poor will stay poor and there will be another upper middle class, why ?

have you heard of the illumati, masons, bohiemian grove, they are very real, they make the rules and they have kept balance on this earth for centuries and they will continue to do so, as far as I can tell the only thing that will destroy this planet is a comet or an asteroid, everything else is bs, and it is put there to make us panic and lose our money in the system, remember Y2K ? that was to be the end of the world and it was not.

I predict in 2 years all will be well again and you hper's will look like a bunch of idiots that are broke and wondering where all of your money went.

First rule of the super rich.....

Pay cash in full for a property, car any high end item..... if you cannot pay in cash you cannot afford it.

The rich, some of whom belong to these secret clubs and societies, have wealth that far exceeds their home values so do you really think that they are going to be bothered by this current crisis ???

they can wait it out for 20, 40, 60 years that is how much power and money they have and they will always get their asking prices for their places, remember they make the rules that we all live by and all they care about is making more money, that is what drives them and keeps us around, money, euros, pound, us, it does not matter, it is all the same to them.

It seems that very 5 years they make up a scam to get money from the rest of us, this one is the real estate/banking scam, in the end a trillion will be printed up to save the day, the US will switch to the euro or come up with a new currency and we the public will get billed for it and the tax payments will be stretched out over the next 1000 years.

Trillions more that vanished will come back on the market right before the riots, or a major panic starts, if any of you had MBA's and worked for a corporation for over 20 years you would understand what I am talking about, I do not have a MBA (I am working on getting one) I have friends that do and none of them are worried, sure they are cutting back a little, instead of buying a ferrari they bought a mercedes, instead of going out they order in.

So stop panicking and get you head out of the sand we will be back to normal in a year or 2 and while the market prices drop 90 percent in the crappy areas, corona, palm desert, san bernadino, rancho cucgamonga, places you could not pay me to live in as they are hours away from any major city.

The prime areas in the cities or on the beach will continue to hold their value and even go higher, remember it is location location location and these properties are and will always be owned by the rich.

I guess the Fed will just print a few trillion dollars and nationalize all the debt. . .then the USD will be worth about 30 to 40% less than today, and Gas for your car will be $6 to $7 dollars.------------------

I just want to thank all of the of using bubble bloggers. I discovered many of you in 2004 or 2005. I had just turned 30 and felt like a loser because I did not have a house and started reading more about purchasing when I discovered this world of contrarians. You saved me from making one of the worst decisions of my life and gave me comfort in a world gone mad. I just wish I had found you before I took out student loans.

SO what the heck do I do. I'm a saver. Where do I place my meager monthly deposits into the savings account? Or should I load up on paying off the fixed rate student loans ( they are at 2.7%) I don't want to get gold because it is already on the high end. Where do I go? What do I do?

I guess this qualifies as a panic.

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You only live once in this world, so stop worring about debt. Live your life,pay your bills, and shit will be ok. Just be glad your an American!

I am scared shitless after today. WHAT HAPPENED TO BEAR IS ABSOLUTELY NOT NORMAL! IT IS HUUUUUUGGGEEEEE!

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So what a bank is going under. Its not like its never happen before. You sound like a drama queen! This is capatilism working its way through a financial hipcup, shit like this will always happen in capatialism markets. So take a deep breath and think for a moment before acting like a drama queen!

Are you serious ? with that kind of thinking you are going to end up living in a cardboard box, if you are not already.

This is a world power we live in today and the rich control it and own it end of story.

If you have a MBA, invent something new that everyone will buy or use you can join them in the ranks, other than that you can I are left out in the cold and confusion of this world, a lot of the news that is out there is disinformation, this ia all an illusion, just like the war and we have a greatest magicians fooling all of us.

Anon said:"The investment banks will fail". All of them? Even JP Morgan Chase? I mean, it survived The Great Depression, I think it'll beat this credit crunch. C'mon, get some perspective.

I can't remember the names, but right after the 1929 stock market crash a few different bankers tried to be market heros and bought stock shares while the market was plunging. They tried to show confidance in the stock market...

Well, they all lost their shirts.

I think we are seeing the same thing happen with JPM buying up BS. If anything, this move will weaken JPM's position and they will be in the same position as BS...

Or should I load up on paying off the fixed rate student loans ( they are at 2.7%)-----------------------------------

There is no good economic reason to pre-pay loans that are at a fixed rate near or below average inflation. There is even less reason to do so in a time of uncertainty (suppose you pay back $5k now and then need extra cash six months down the road - you will never find an equally good interest rate assuming you can find a willing lender).

Even if you want peace of mind knowing you can pay the loans off whenever you want, just put the extra cash you would use in an online savings account with a decent interest rate.

Instead of allowing normal business cycles to run their course our government decides to sacrifice our currency to bail out speculators. Poorly run companies like WaMu, Countrywide and BearStearns desperately need to go out of business to make room for more efficiently managed enterprises.There will be hell to pay for destroying our currency. The reason we could afford our current standard of living was because we could run a huge trade deficit to the tune of $60 billion per month (that's about $200 per month per person). Soon foreigners that were financing our life style will be asking for something else other tham dollars for payment. What are we going to give them Happy Meals and CDOs? Once the dollar is replaced as reserve currency the game is over. We will never rise to the power and status in the world we once had. Other players, meaner and leaner than ourselves, will take over. Russia, Brazil and China come to mind.But what do you expect from a country that voted for Bush twice and sees education as a money making tools (student loans) instead of an investment into the future. It's historie's normal business cycle, inefficiently run empires get replaced by better managed entities. Nobody is going to bail us out of that one.

IF THERE WERE NO LOANS OR BORROWED MONEYS TO BID AND DRIVE THE PRICES HIGHER AND THE BANKS WERE NOT LOANING TEN TO TWENTY DOLLARS OF LOANS FOR EVERY DOLLAR OF DEPOSITS THEN THE PRICES WOULD BE 10 OR TWENTY TIMES LESS, THIS IS LACK OF LIQUIDITY................?