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Monday, October 29, 2012

Los Angeles Lakers 2012-13 Preview

I know this sounds crazy, but I feel the Lakers are underrated this year. They essentially traded Bynum for Nash and Dwight Howard. Dwight Howard, a two-time defensive player of the year and best center by a mile, carried weak supporting casts far into postseasons and past reasonable win totals. His best teammate previously was ... Jameer Nelson? Turkoglu? Ryan Anderson? Nash is a great-grandfather in NBA terms, but he had another impressive season and his shooting and passing skills won't erode with time. He's replacing Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake. They now have a core of Nash, Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard.

Some forecasts have the Lakers modestly accumulating win totals. Hollinger predicts only 53 wins, behind the Nuggets, Thunder and the Spurs, who he pegs to come out of the west. Basketball Prospectus estimated the Lakers with Howard and Nash would only win about 55 to 56 games next season; it's hardly a slight but it's a stratosphere from what experts were saying would happen when LeBron, Wade, and Bosh joined forces. Lakers fans, obviously, are confidently predicting 73-9 with not just one but two titles in a single year, but there are a few doubters out there.

Throwing together a cast of all-stars doesn't mean you can just add some static value of each player to predict the win total for the season. In other words, the team is not the sum of its parts. This is a case of diminishing returns. There is only one basketball on the court, and the Lakers gang can only shoot one at a time. If you add up the big four's shot attempts and compare it to what the Lakers averaged per game last year, those four players would comprise 72% of their shot attempts. Do the same with free throws and it's ... 104%. In fact, if you take a weighted average of the usage rates from last season and apply it to this season's Lakers, you get something around 21.8%. Note that because there are five players on the court at once the average should be 20 (100% divided by 5). For the math to make sense, you have to subtract shots from someone, and the question is will that be a center on track for the Hall of Frame in his prime or arguably the best shooter ever in Nash, or will that be Kobe Bryant, whose last season's shooting quantities were only rivaled by Jordan, Iverson, Wade, and himself?

The table below is showing every with a usage % (percentage of team plays used) of 35 and over with a minimum of 1500 minutes played in the season.

Player

Year

Age

Tm

MP

FGA

3PA

FTA

Ast

Tov

Pts

FG%

3P%

TS%

USG%

Kobe Bryant

2006

27

LAL

3277

27.2

6.5

10.2

4.5

3.1

35.4

45.0

34.7

55.9

38.7

Michael Jordan

1987

23

CHI

3281

27.8

0.8

11.9

4.6

3.3

37.1

48.2

18.2

56.2

38.3

Allen Iverson

2002

26

PHI

2622

27.8

4.5

9.8

5.5

4.0

31.4

39.8

29.1

48.9

37.8

Dwyane Wade

2009

27

MIA

3048

22.0

3.5

9.8

7.5

3.4

30.2

49.1

31.7

57.4

36.2

Jermaine O'Neal

2005

26

IND

1530

19.4

0.1

8.9

1.9

3.0

24.3

45.2

16.7

52.0

36.2

Michael Jordan

2002

38

WAS

2093

22.1

0.9

5.6

5.2

2.7

22.9

41.6

18.9

46.8

36.0

Allen Iverson

2001

25

PHI

2979

25.5

4.3

10.1

4.6

3.3

31.1

42.0

32.0

51.8

35.9

Allen Iverson

2006

30

PHI

3103

25.3

3.1

11.5

7.4

3.4

33.0

44.7

32.3

54.3

35.8

Kobe Bryant

2012

33

LAL

2232

23.0

4.9

7.8

4.6

3.5

27.9

43.0

30.3

52.7

35.7

Allen Iverson

2004

28

PHI

2040

23.4

4.1

9.5

6.8

4.4

26.4

38.7

28.6

47.8

35.3

Tracy McGrady

2003

23

ORL

2954

24.2

6.0

9.7

5.5

2.6

32.1

45.7

38.6

56.4

35.2

Dominique Wilkins

1988

28

ATL

2948

25.1

1.7

8.4

2.9

2.8

30.7

46.4

29.5

53.4

35.2

Jerry Stackhouse

2001

26

DET

3215

24.1

5.9

10.1

5.1

4.1

29.8

40.2

35.1

52.1

35.2

Kobe Bryant

2011

32

LAL

2779

20.0

4.3

7.1

4.7

3.0

25.3

45.1

32.3

54.8

35.1

Bernard King

1985

28

NYK

2063

23.7

0.2

10

3.7

3.7

32.9

53.0

10.0

58.5

35.1

George Gervin

1982

29

SAS

2817

25.2

0.5

8.1

2.4

2.7

32.3

50.0

27.8

56.2

35.0

Kobe tops the list with his hallowed 2006 scoring season of 35 points and his single game of 81. Kobe last season was ranked 9th all-time. With his new all-star teammates, will we see Happy Olympics Kobe, content to take less shots, play more defense, and step up as a veteran when needed? As a side note, beyond Kobe, Jordan, and Iverson, who comprise 9 of the 16 seasons, there are a few surprising players, but there's certainly a pattern: it's all wing players and mostly shooting guards, and with the weak exception of Jerry Stackhouse they're all subpar three-point shooters. There is one player who sticks out like a bleeding thumb. Which one of these players is not like the others? I certainly would not expect him. Going further off topic, I put together a simple graph of TS% (field-goal percentage adjusted for free throws and three pointers) and usage % to show how efficiency varies among the seasons with the historically greatest "ballhogging".

Bringing it back to the Lakers: as a counterpoint, let's consider how these players bring their value. Howard can replace Bynum's shots, and he can also soak up more minutes (presumably) to leave little room for replacement level types like Jordan Hill. Nash doesn't shoot all that much anyway, and Ramon Sessions loved to shoot. Howard's value is primarily on the defensive end where he's strong enough to defend big centers but quick enough to snuff out pick and roll's while protecting the rim and the weak side, and offensively a lot of his value is the mere thread of his presence in the paint. Nash is a wizard at the helm of the offense, dribbling wherever he wants on the court because if you give him a sliver of daylight he'll throw up an accurate jump shot. He shoots a staggering 50+ percent on midrange jump shots, near the top of the leaderboard year after year. His passing and pick and roll skills will combine with Howard and Gasol to form an impossible to defend play. Can you stop Howard, a huge athletic beast, from rolling to the basket while preventing one of the best shooters and passers ever an open shot? The Lakers are adding high efficiency shooting and a defensive player of the year for their interior. For another aside, one study found that when you increase a player's usage by 1% his offensive efficiency increases by 1.25 points per 100 possessions and vice versa for a decrease in usage. For the Lakers, they should hope their reduction in shot attempts for their stars translates to better offensive efficiency.

The key to the season is how they cope with new roles; this is paramount for their all-star guards. Nash regularly has the ball in his hands, directing the offense, while Kobe does the same though instead of passing he sets up for midrange jump shots. Kobe does have the ability to catch and shoot more as the mere thought of leaving him open despite his shooting percentages from 3 is enough for teams to react defensively. If the floor stays open in the middle, Howard and Gasol will destroy opponents with their length and size like they have with Bynum before. Howard will control the boards and the paint while Pau will keep evolving into a jump shooter (who doesn't actually jump). It's not ideal, but it's the same problem as last year with a better center. With Artest and Jamison likely to receive major playing time, floor spacing is the key word. Hopefully, Meeks and Goudelock can earn more playing time with Artest as a power forward, kicking out the defensively inflammable and offensively useless Jamison for outside shooting. Defensively, as long as Jamison doesn't play too many minutes at the same level he has recently, the swap of Bynum for Howard will net huge dividends as long as Howard can stay on the court. I'd rather bet on Howard than Bynum, however.

Of course, the Lakers view the regular season differently than most teams. Mike Brown notwithstanding, they should rest their best players as much as they can, especially the veterans like the nearing 40 years-old Nash. Injuries are also a concern, and those issues could affect this team more than almost any other one because their bench is, simply put, deplorable. Antawn Jamison leads the cast of misfits, but he's an undersized power forward who is a weak outside shooter, sports a low-percentage conversion rates, and can't play defense against most professional players. Their best bench player is arguably Jodie Meeks because at least his outside shooting is valuable.

During the playoffs this will matter less, and as a result I'm seeing the Lakers representing the west in the finals, especially now that the Thunder are Beard-less. Nash and Howard seem to possess a magic ability to lift offenses and defenses, respectively, and with this odd mash of players it feels like a mad experiment in the lab. The Lakers retain their status as the league's trust fund baby, gaining Dwight because he wanted big city lights and the allure of the purple and gold, and lucking out on Nash simply because they were closest to his kids. Looking at the new Lakers' stars box score numbers doesn't tell the whole story; this team could be utterly transformed. For the rest of the league, this isn't fair.