PPP: Flake takes lead in Arizona

11/4/12 4:09 PM EST

Richard Carmona led our last Arizona Senate poll, in early October, 45-43. What's happened since then is pretty straight forward- the Republican base has unified around Jeff Flake. He's gone from pulling 70% of Republicans on that survey to now 88%. And although Carmona still leads by 5 points with independents, Flake's cut that down from a 15 point lead a month ago.

Attacks on Carmona have taken a toll- his net favorability has dropped 11 points from +8 at 35/27 to -3 at 40/43. He leads 70/26 with Hispanics but that's not enough to make up for his 59/39 deficit with white voters.

Carmona's internal polling found him ahead on Oct. 23 in a three-way race including a Libertarian candidate not tested by PPP. The PPP result, though, lines up with how Republicans have long hoped the race would turn out: with Republicans ultimately coming home to Flake in a conservative-leaning state, whatever the biographical appeal of the Democratic nominee.