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Drought hangs tough in region

A multi-year drought in the Ruidoso area hangs tough. The National Weather Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), in a coordinated review, said snowpacks in New Mexico's mountains were dismal. With the snow accumulation season better than half over in the Sacramento and Capitan mountains, the agencies said hopes for a near average spring snow melt runoff are fading with each stretch of dry and mild weather.

Combined, 2011 and 2012 were the driest and warmest two-year period in state history, noted Wayne Sleep, a snow survey hydrologic technician with the NRCS in New Mexico.

"The last two years were actually warmer and drier that the first couple of years of the 1950s drought," Sleep said. "The thing in the 50s that really made that notable was the length of time that it lasted. It went on for over four years. The timing now is going to be what drives this one in relation to the 50s."

Less than average precipitation and warmer temperatures for February, March and April are the forecast from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center.

Sleep said the chances for decent runoff from high elevation snows this spring and early summer are not looking good for much of New Mexico.

The streamflow forecast for the March to June period for the Rio Hondo Basis is 3,000 acre feet or 45 percent of normal for the Rio Ruidoso at the Hollywood gauge. High elevation precipitation in the northern Sacramento Mountains was well below normal at 56 percent.

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That was similar to last year. Year-to-date precipitation is 64 percent of normal, down from last year's 109 percent for the same timeline. The snowpack in the Rio Hondo Basin is about 77 percent of normal according to the Feb. 1 Sierra Blanca SNOTEL (snow telemetry) and snow course readings.

Lincoln County commissioners are looking at the idea of tougher water requirements for developers. One proposal that is expected to be advanced by the Lincoln County Planning Commission would mandate water rights be part of any new subdivisions.

"These arid climates, that's something's that going to have be considered in long-term planning, the sustainability of the water resources," Sleep said. "And the last few years of drought is bringing that more into perspective I think."

The new Rio Ruidoso runoff forecast for March to June should be used with caution because of changes last year to the watershed, Sleep warned. The Rio Hondo Basin report for February noted the Sierra Blanca SNOTEL and snow course both were seeing impacts from last year's Little Bear Fire. Vegetation around the sites has been significantly altered.

"We're actually seeing some drifting across our snow pillow (a part of the SNOTEL equipment that measures the weight of the snow to help determine the liquid content of the snow)," Sleep said. "This year what we're seeing, because the vegetation has been opened up after the burn last summer, there's a drift forming right across the middle of that snow pillow. So the data that's coming off of that site isn't totally reliable."

Sleep said there are a number of possible impacts to snow accumulation and melt off for years following a fire.

"It changes the pattern of accumulation. There's not branches to intercept the snow so actually a lot of times you tend to get more on the ground but then you've got all the ash and charred materials from the trees that are still out there. And that can actually make a film on top of the snowpack, which can cause a quicker melt-out. So the runoff during the melt-out period is a little harder to forecast without any vegetation to intercede as it flows downhill."

The changes could create issues down the mountain.

"Right now, with what's up there, I don't think there would be too much complication. If the snowpack continues to build and then later in the spring there was a rain on snow event, there's a potential that that could cause a rapid runoff scenario but that's a little hard to call at this point."

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