Trump dodges risky Tennessee primary

Rep. Diane Black is blanketing the air with TV ads claiming she has the White House imprimatur as the true Trump candidate in the Tennessee governor’s race.

There’s just one problem: President Donald Trump has not actually endorsed her and has no plans to get involved in this Thursday's primary, multiple Republicans in Tennessee and Washington with knowledge of the race told POLITICO.

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Word that Trump is staying out of the race is viewed as a potentially fatal blow to the Black campaign and enhances the prospects for businessmen Bill Lee and Randy Boyd in a divided primary for the Republican nomination to succeed term-limited Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam.

Black has, however, received the endorsement of Vice President Mike Pence. Her latest ad plays coy with the vice president's backing: It begins with video of Trump praising the congresswoman at past events — "I called Diane Black, and you came through, Diane," he says in one clip from a meeting with GOP leaders in the White House. Later, after a clip of Pence on the screen, the ad calls Black "the only endorsed candidate for governor."

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Trump's reticence stands in contrast to his recent endorsement spree in GOP primaries across the country. Just in the past week, he's tweeted support for a Senate incumbent in Wyoming, a candidate in Michigan's Senate race, and the party's nominee in a special congressional election in Ohio next week. Another Republican House incumbent on the ballot in Tennessee, Rep. David Kustoff, has received Trump's backing for his reelection; Kustoff is facing a stiff primary challenge on Thursday from frequent candidate George Flinn.

A Trump endorsement has been more valuable than gold in some Southern gubernatorial primaries: Buoyed by the president's support in last week's GOP runoff in Georgia, Secretary of State Brian Kemp blew out Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle. And, in Florida, Trump's pick for governor, Rep. Ron DeSantis, has surged ahead of state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam with four weeks to go until the August 28 primary.

Back in Tennessee, Black could use the help. She has, for months, been regarded as the front-runner. But a recent automated poll showed Lee in first place, with Boyd and Black jockeying for second. Privately, Tennessee Republicans, including those supporting other candidates, as well as veteran Republican strategists who specialize in governor races, have become increasingly bullish about Lee’s chances.

Each of the GOP campaigns has worked hard to yoke their candidates to the president.

“All of their advertisements have tied themselves to Trump,” said Susan Richardson Williams, a former chairwoman of the Tennessee GOP.

But Williams, who is supporting Boyd, said she doubted the Pence support could lock the race up for Black. “I don’t think the Pence endorsement did much for her. I really don’t. Now if Trump came down here, for a pre-election rally ... I don’t know if Donald Trump would want to do that and hurt himself."

Sources in Tennessee and Republicans close to the White House said the president has agreed to stay out of the governor’s race and was holding firm on that promise as of Tuesday afternoon. While Trump — who meets regularly with his political team to pore over state-by-state dynamics, including polling — was keeping his powder dry, Pence tweeted out his own support for Black last Friday. The vice president’s Great America PAC previously distributed money to Black’s gubernatorial campaign.

The winner of Thursday's Republican primary is expected to face Democrat Karl Dean, the former mayor of Nashville, in the general election.

Earlier this month, there were rumors among GOP circles in the state that Trump was going to weigh in — and possibly endorse Black — but such talk has since dissipated, according to several aides working for various candidates.

In addition to the Trump comments included in the most recent Black TV ad, the president has frequently praised the congresswoman since coming to Washington.

Last December, as Congress ushered along his administration’s tax proposal, Trump tweeted that “Diane Black of Tennessee, the highly respected House Budget Committee Chairwoman, did a GREAT job in passing Budget, setting up for big Tax Cuts.”

And during a May rally in Nashville for his own reelection campaign, Trump called out Black and said she "is in a big race."