Economy

Last week Congress did something fiscally responsible. It’s not very often I can say that. Granted, it was small in the grand scheme of things, but I was glad to be an original cosponsor, along with Congressman Harry Mitchell of Arizona, of a bill to block the automatic pay raise that Congress otherwise receives every year.

Federal aid to students at for-profit colleges jumped from $4.6 billion in 2000 to $26.5 billion in 2009. Publicly traded higher education companies derive three-fourths of their revenue from federal funds, with Phoenix at 86%, up from just 48% in 2001 and approaching the 90% limit set by federal law.

NHS figures show that in the first nine months of 2009, more than 3.6 million prescriptions were written for diazepam in England – an 11 per cent rise on the 3.25 million dispensed in 2006, and an increase of 17 per cent in a decade.

Energy

Several start-up companies in the United States are developing technology to produce electricity from strong tidal currents. Ocean Renewable Power’s system uses a cross-flow turbine that spins as the water flows through it, turning a generator.

“This is a really major setback both for climate and of course also on energy policy,” Yergin said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today with Tom Keene. “Everything now is obviously on hold.” Yergin is the author of a Pulitzer-Prize winning history of the oil industry.

We don't know when the next oil shock will arrive but we do know it's just a matter of time before the next one shows up. I continue to be astonished that most American economists and all American policy-makers ignore the dangers posed by future oil prices. But then again, if you can ignore the biggest property bubble in human history, you can ignore anything.

Implicit in the article, and the headline (which focuses on lower revenues for RWE) is the worry that wind power will bring down the stock market value of the big utilities - which is what the readers of Bloomberg et al. care about.

But despite the generally negative tone of the article, it's actually a useful one, because it brings out in the open a key bit of information: wind power actually brings electricity prices down!"

There's a mini-boom in such mini farms. Scores of businesses like Farmscape are sprouting up nationwide, from My Backyard Farm in San Clemente to Your Backyard Farmer in Portland, Ore., and Freelance Farmers in New Haven, Conn.

Many of these small businesses have emerged because of the country's sluggish economy, as people who hunt for work are marketing themselves as urban farmers and catering to a clientele hungry for a cornucopia without the sweat.

Join the discussion

17 Comments

"The beatings handed out to Spain, Portugal and Ireland show that bond vigilantes are in no mood to be reasoned with. Borrow too much externally and you have a problem, no matter what promises you make."

"May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's indicated that a fiscal plan scheduled for next month by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's government may be key to whether it will cut the nation's sovereign credit rating.

The proposal will be "an important statement of the government's commitment" to rein in the deficit, William Hess, director of sovereign ratings for Asia, said in an interview yesterday in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. "Something has to appear to change our assessment for where things could end up.""

"May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of insuring against default on sovereign bonds rose on concern that the $144 billion aid package for Greece may not solve the nation's deficit crisis or prevent contagion to Europe's debt-ridden economies.

Credit-default swaps on Greece surged 34.5 basis points to 681, according to CMA DataVision prices, implying a more than 42 percent probability of default over five years. Contracts on Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland also rose."

"At 14.3 percent of gross domestic product, Ireland had the euro region's largest deficit last year. Greece's was 13.6 percent, Spain's was 11.2 percent and Portugal's 9.4 percent. The shortfalls as a share of gross domestic product were more than three times the European Union limit of 3 percent.

'Deep Mistrust'

There's "a deep mistrust among the investor base on the viability of the Greek story in a medium-term context," Padhraic Garvey, head of investment-grade debt strategy at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam, wrote in a note to investors.

Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the Greek crisis has jeopardized the future of the euro and officials’ actions haven’t done enough to stave off contagion.

The crisis in Greece may suggest the “end of the euro,” Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, said in an interview with BBC Radio 4 today. The single currency’s future “may be limited” if the “fundamental institutional problems” of the region aren’t addressed, he said."

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Tuesday warned Greece to stick to its deficit-reduction plan or again face the threat of insolvency, news reports said. "If there are any violations, payments will be stopped. Then Athens will once again be threatened with bankruptcy," Schaeuble said, according to news reports quoting the Rheinische Post newspaper."

"With the motto ‘Stop the misery,’ the European Union (EU) has declared 2010 ‘The year for combating poverty and social exclusion.’ In the 27 countries of the EU, there are some 85 million poor (a) One in six Europeans lives in poverty. (b) And the situation is getting worse as the effects of the global economic crisis spread.

Popular rage has erupted over the austerity plans in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, etc. Strikes and violent protests are multiplying. Many citizens are also rejecting the political system (abstaining from voting or casting white ballots) or joining extreme factions (the far right and xenophobes). Poverty and social desperation are creating a crisis in the democratic system itself."

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. government is expected to borrow $340 billion in April-June, the Treasury Department said Monday. The borrowing estimate is $72 billion more than previous estimates. The increase was due to re-establishment of the Supplementary Financing Program, designed to help the Federal Reserve conduct monetary policy. The government borrowed $483 billion in the last quarter. Treasury assumes an end-of-June cash balance of $280. For the July-September quarter, Treasury said it expects to borrow $376 billion with a cash balance of $270 billion. As a result, Treasury now expects to borrow $1.46 trillion this fiscal year, down from $1.79 trillion in the last fiscal year."

"The U.S. is financing a budget deficit the Obama administration projected will reach a record $1.6 trillion this year, even as the economy recovers from a recession. Bond dealers predicted a $1.38 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2010 and a $1.18 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2011 in a survey provided to the Treasury before this week’s announcements."

"A bipartisan bill proposed in the US Senate would remove caps on bond levels for water infrastructure projects."

""This legislation will not only address the nation’s deteriorating water and wastewater infrastructure, estimated to be a trillion dollar challenge by the EPA, it will also generate thousands of jobs and help stimulate the economy," said Don Correll, President and CEO of American Water Works Company, Inc. "Exemption for bond caps exists for other infrastructure but not for water. Removing these caps will free up crucial investment dollars and create needed jobs." "

"Bay Area public transit is caught in a downward spiral, and fundamental changes must be made to rescue it, according to the region's major transportation planning agency's annual report.

The area's more than two dozen transit systems, including BART and AC Transit, are likely to need about $1 billion a year for the next 25 years to survive, according to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission's 2009 annual report. Bay Area ferries, buses and trains are barreling toward deficits totaling about $25 billion deficit in 2033.

"By all measures, the long-term prognosis points to decline, not stability," Steve Heminger, the commission's executive director, said in the report. "The current transit system is unsustainable."

Fewer people are taking transit to work because fewer people have jobs and reduced spending means less revenue from sales tax. In response, agencies cut service and hike fares, further decreasing income from the fare box. Heminger described this cycle as "a road to ruin.""

"With budget cuts hitting harder than ever our school system hangs in the balance. Over the next year class sizes are expected to rise to around 40 or 50 students as an estimated 250,000 teachers are laid off. In attempts to combat this huge loss, Senator Tom Harkin is proposing a bill which calls for $23 billion that will help save our educators jobs, $3 billion of which would go to California. "

"SACRAMENTO — The catastrophic oil slick spreading through the Gulf of Mexico has claimed another victim: Cash for California's strapped parks system.

Painting a grim picture of the spill's devastation, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Monday backed away from a contentious drilling proposal off the coast of Southern California that officials hoped would raise $1.8 billion for state parks over the next 14 years.

The decision means the governor must find $100 million for parks in this year's budget and $119 million more in the 2010-11 budget, adding additional pain to California $18.6 billion budget deficit. "

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Connecticut should end the current fiscal year with a $105 million surplus, thanks partly to a deficit-cutting plan, but the state will have to close total of $4.5 billion of budget gaps over the next two years, the state comptroller said on Monday.

"The surplus is mainly produced by federal stimulus dollars, deferral of payments to the pension fund and one-time transfers of money from accounts, including the Rainy Day Fund," Comptroller Nancy Wyman said in a statement."

"SPRINGFIELD -- Stuck with a huge deficit and no easy answers, Democratic legislators are considering a long list of budget maneuvers and quick fixes -- including a form of official IOU to government pension systems.

The state doesn't have the $3.7 billion it owes to retirement systems in the upcoming fiscal year, so top Democrats are discussing a plan to make good by giving the systems bonds that pay off over eight years, documents and interviews show.

The idea has been considered in the past and rejected over concerns that it would weaken the troubled retirement funds, perhaps even endangering their tax-exempt status.

But Democrats are willing to take a second look at the idea because they have few other options.

"There's no cash, so we have to figure something out," said Kelly Kraft, spokeswoman for Gov. Pat Quinn's budget office."

"Overdue loans in pools of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) continue to mount. With each passing month, CMBS delinquency rates jump to another record high – and April held true to form.

The delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in CMBS climbed higher still last month, although the rate of increase slowed from March’s breakneck pace, the research firm Trepp LLC reported Monday.

According to Trepp’s monthly study, the percentage of CMBS loans 30 or more days delinquent, in foreclosure, or classified as REO jumped 41 basis points during April, putting the overall delinquency rate at 8.02 percent, the highest in CMBS history. "

"The Medicaid assistance, set to expire at the end of December, has become a critical component in many state budgets during a time of devastating deficits. So critical, in fact, that two-thirds of the states crafted 2011 budgets assuming that more of it would come through, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

For a while, this looked like a safe bet. The House had included the states’ extension in its original version of health care reform. But by the time Congress produced a final bill for President Obama to sign in March, the aid to states had disappeared into the legislative ether. Now, with Congress ratcheting up its scrutiny of new spending, it’s not at all clear that the Medicaid assistance will ever materialize.

If it doesn’t — or if it doesn't pass until much later this year — that would wreak major havoc in many state capitals. The aid, worth a total of $25 billion, amounts to nearly one-quarter of the collective budget deficits states face for the fiscal year that begins on July 1 in most states. To balance their budgets, states would have to raise taxes or cut their budgets by that much. Yet nearly half the states already have finished their legislative sessions for the year and more will wrap up in the next few weeks. According to NCSL, as many as 19 states have no backup plan in place should Congress not come through with the money they’ve been expecting."

"Riverside County's annual pension costs are expected to jump $20 million by 2012, putting a further strain on a budget that over the next two years is expected to contain significant cuts.

A new report headed before the Board of Supervisors today found that the county's pension plan has deteriorated due to recent investment losses.

In total, the county is about $800 million short over the next 30 years of having the money needed to cover its $4.5 billion in pension obligations.

"This dwarfs our current budget crisis," Supervisor Bob Buster said in an interview last week.

The report from the Pension Advisory Review Committee comes as supervisors weigh how to overcome a $131 million budget gap for the fiscal year starting July1 and as a newly formed -- and similarly named -- committee on Monday debated potential retirement reforms. "

"County Executive Jeffrey Smith warns that the county continues to be challenged by crippling declines in discretionary revenues that have lead to a ninth consecutive general fund deficit.

"Local governments struggle every day to provide needed services with dwindling resources, a situation that has grown astronomically during the current economic crisis," Smith said. "The impact of the current economic recession has been devastating to families in Santa Clara County, the state of California, and across the country. Local governments are teetering on the edge of insolvency because of a staggering decline in revenue. The most optimistic forecasts do not see significant improvement in the near future.""

"The Philippines, Asia’s largest sovereign issuer of foreign debt, is expected to post a record budget deficit in 2010 after a larger-than-expected shortfall in the first quarter, a Reuters poll of 10 economists showed.

The median forecast was for the deficit to widen to P307.5 billion ($6.9 billion) from P298.5 billion in 2009, the current record deficit in peso terms.

Four economists said Manila could hit its target of P293.2 billion, but none predicted a smaller-than-expected deficit."

"The number of homeowners deciding to throw in the towel even though they can afford to pay their mortgage is growing, according to two new industry studies."

"Researchers at the University of Chicago and Northwestern University found that the number of homeowners willing to default when the value of a mortgage exceeds the value of their house, even if they can afford to pay their mortgage, has dramatically increased compared to just a year ago. The percentage of foreclosures that were perceived to be strategic was 31 percent in March 2010, compared to 22 percent in March 2009."

Schiff still doesn't tell the whole story. He's correct on the surface...increased liquidity pumped into any market increases prices. But blaming only government is simplistic and avoids the real cause...the financial sector that holds the government hostage. If the US govt didn't engage in insane debt inflation, the private sector wouldn't be able to "grow" since we have no savings/production. I don't know why he doesn't see this. He still believes there's a public vs. private sector divide...that Austrian framework is simply no longer true. The government works for Wall St...there is no divide...we have a privatized government whose job is to increase revenue to its financial bosses by inflating the debt. Our entire money supply is fueled by the top tier "public" debt sitting on the balance sheet of the Fed and "private" primary dealers. That is the "reserve" upon which the banking system creates money. It's the only way to increase money in our system.

Imagine a pipe 5 feet wide spewing crude oil like a fire hose from what could be a planets' largest, high-pressure oil and gas reserve. With the best technology available to man, the Deepwater Horizon rig popped a hole into that reserve and was overwelmed. If this isn't contained, it could poison all the oceans of the world.

"Well if you say the fire hose has a 70,000 psi pump on the other end yes! No comparison here.

The volume out rises geometrically with pressure. Its a square function. Two times the pressure is 4

time the push. The Alaska pipeline is 4 feet in diameter and pushes with a lot less pressure. This

Schiff still doesn't tell the whole story. He's correct on the surface...increased liquidity pumped into any market increases prices. But blaming only government is simplistic and avoids the real cause...the financial sector that holds the government hostage

I've never got that he only blames the government. I think he takes a pretty big aim at the root cause which is the Federal Reserve and fiat money. Without the Fed and all the distortions caused by the manipulation of the money supply (via free money for large banks) it would be difficult for the financial sector to have so much power. That's why I believe we need to solve the root cause, then see what happens before we pile on more regulations. All the crap going on in DC now are just band-aids put on the boo-boo on one leg to hopefully make us feel better and not notice the other leg is aputated and were bleeding out.

In his books he talks about the over consumption of everyone (government and individuals) versus productivity. The one thing he seems to overlook/ignore is the peak oil/resource issues. I've been quite happy with my investments with his company and I know my advisor with Europacific is aware of the Crash Course. He said he has other clients that send hims links to articles here regularly.

Imagine a pipe 5 feet wide spewing crude oil like a fire hose from what could be a planets' largest, high-pressure oil and gas reserve. With the best technology available to man, the Deepwater Horizon rig popped a hole into that reserve and was overwelmed. If this isn't contained, it could poison all the oceans of the world.

"Well if you say the fire hose has a 70,000 psi pump on the other end yes! No comparison here.

The volume out rises geometrically with pressure. Its a square function. Two times the pressure is 4

time the push. The Alaska pipeline is 4 feet in diameter and pushes with a lot less pressure. This

I don't know if the attached article is an exaggeration of possible outcomes in the Gulf, but if it's not this thing is bad - really bad!

Well, I would call it an exageration. Notice how we now have 25 years of oil and might run out of oxygen to burn because of how much oil there is in this formation in the article! But, lets do the math:

Let's assume this thing flows at the 200,000 gallons/day (which is just under 5000 barrels/day - but 5000 is not as impressive as 200,000)

News Release - Federal Income Tax CollectionsForetell More Bad News for States— A decline in personal income tax revenues collected by the federal government through the end of April 2010 suggests that state governments may suffer significant declines in such tax collections compared to 2009, a period which itself was down dramatically from the year before, according to Rockefeller Institute fiscal experts.

The weeks just after the April 15 filing deadline for income-tax returns is the most important tax-collection period of the year for most states, and particularly those that rely heavily on income taxes. The Institute’s fiscal policy analysts have been watching daily federal data on nonwithheld taxes processed in April, as an indicator of what state governments around the country are likely to expect in terms of revenues compared to last year. Through April 30, the federal government’s nonwithheld income taxes are down 17.6 percent from a year earlier. That is likely a close estimate to the final decline the Internal Revenue Service will see in nonwithheld income tax collections in this period; in 2009, 96 percent of April and May's nonwithheld taxes were known by April 30.

Apr 30 - The Wall Street Journal reports: "Experts: Oil may be leaking at Rate of 25,000 Barrels a Day in Gulf". This is five times greater than the last estimate on Apr 28. This would be 25,000 barrels a day or 1,050,000 gallons a day.

May 02 - Interior Secretary Ken Salazar states "The worst-case scenario is we could have 100,000 barrels or more of oil flowing out."

Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Thad Allen "Well, if we lost the total wellhead, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day. I think -- just to follow up on what Secretary Napolitano said, this whole thing has been kind of a process of discovery. It wasn't until they remotely-operated vehicles down, were able to survey the entire length of the 5,000-foot pipe-riser that was crumpled on the ocean floor, that we finally found three sequential leaks over a period of about 72 hours. And as I told some folks, you know, the difference between 1,000 and 5,000 barrels a day, when you look at the potential discharge of 100,000, leads me to believe that there are a lot of inaccuracies associated with trying to estimate flow from a broken pipe at 5,000 feet. That's the reason it's so very, very important we focus on stopping this leak right away."

May 04 - Reuters reports that the "BP oil leak likely far less than 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) ....it is difficult to determine the rate without knowing things like the reservoir pressure, the total depth of the well and the find's geology. "We don't have any physical way to measure this," said Bob Fryar, senior vice president of Angola for BP. "We're clearly not metering the flow. We don't have flowing pressures at the well."

In his books he talks about the over consumption of everyone (government and individuals) versus productivity. The one thing he seems to overlook/ignore is the peak oil/resource issues. I've been quite happy with my investments with his company and I know my advisor with Europacific is aware of the Crash Course. He said he has other clients that send hims links to articles here regularly.

To me, he seems like Ron Paul. They both put their faith in the free market to come up with a solution to peak oil... When you think about it, it's not so different from what Chris Martenson says: "So the good news is that we already have everything we need; the bad news is that we might not deploy it fast enough." - Crash Course Chapter 1. Basically, if we can clean up the mess up there, there is a chance. Ron, Chris, Peter, (and me! me! once I get my career in the smart grid going) are working in their own ways to address this mess

Just wanted to thank you for posting all the youtube clips. Schiff, Rogers, Faber, etc....

[/quote]
+1!!!
My thanks to both iDoctor and sax for their tireless work on the digest. iDoctor, I too very much appreciate the videos. Have you considered an iDoctor channel we could subscribe to on youtube?
Erik

Erik & Montana glad you guys enjoy them. So many here have helped me get a better understanding plus I enjoy the "brain power" here. Erik you have been on a roll with you great articles. The oil one was most helpful.....many thanks.

I see Faber & Rogers as the really wise men but I love Schiff's determination in what he believes.

WOW Greece is looking ugly today.....this unfortunately is probably just a warm up for the rest of the world. Hope I am wrong.