I agree with Elliot. Herman Cain finished fourth in a recent straw poll. He polled higher than other top candidates (Barbour, Thune, even Pawlenty). Ron Paul IS gaining traction! He won the CPAC poll for the 2nd straight time!!!!

Here’s some proof from the source that Ron Paul is considering a run for President. I think its ridiculous that Paul isn’t being included. If you’re including Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, and David Petraeus (all of whom have denied interest in running for president and all of whom have polled below Ron Paul) yet not including the candidate who is polling higher than Pawlenty, Daniels, Thune, and Pence. Ron Paul is showing great interest in running.

1. He has won both the 2010 and 2011 CPAC straw polls. He finished second in the 2009 CPAC straw poll
2.) He raised $400,000 dollars in ONE DAY!!! On February 21, 2011, his PAC raised an unheard of $400,000! And he wasn’t even campaigning!
3.) He won the Arizona Tea Party Patriots 2011 Straw Poll. He is also the tea party’s most popular leader

1.) Paul has not ruled out a run. Chris Christie has ruled out a run, yet he’s included in the game.
2.) Paul has polled higher than Christie, Pawlenty, Daniels, and Petraeus before in races against Obama.
3.) Paul’s fundraisers are some of the most well trained in the nation.
4.) According to 2010 Gallup Poll, the Tea Party considers Ron Paul to be their leader.
5.) Ron Paul has many crusaders who could help his campaign.
6.) His base has been consistently rated as one of the most dedicated.
7.) According to survey released in early ’11, more people have kept their Ron Paul 2008 bumper stickers on their cars more than any other candidate with the exception of Obama.

1.) General David Petraeus is being included. YET, he has constantly denied rumors and has never been polled against other possible contenders for the GOP nomination. Ron Paul isn’t being included, despite the following…
a.) He is a wallet packing fundraiser
b.) He has a large array of crusaders(possibles: Nolan Ryan, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes)
c.) His son is in the US Senate
d.) He has not ruled out a run yet
e.) He has arguably the most enthusiastic political action comitee in the nation.
f.) He won both the CPAC’s 2010 and 2011 straw polls, as well as the Tea Party Patriots straw poll.
2.) Ron Paul is the one canididate who stands out the most when it comes to his views. He is a constitutionalist and supports withdrawing most US troops from foreign soil.
3.) He has Democratic allies who just might campaign for him (Example: Dennis Kucinich…can provide more info upon request)
4.) He finished 2nd in the Southern Republican Leadership Council Straw Poll in 2011, losing to Romney by only 1 vote!!!
5.) In February of 2010, Jesse Benton, Senior VP of Campaign for Liberty, said of the prospective Ron Paul repeat run: “If the decision had to be made today, it would be ‘no’, but he is considering it very strongly and there is a decent likelihood that he will”
6.) His writings have consistently made the best seller list.
7.) He has strong debating skills: Paul participated in several 2008 GOP debates, the majority of which he won according to the sponsors’ own online or text-message phone polls (none of which are scientific)
8.) In addition to his search popularity, Ron Paul has become popular on a variety of social networking websites. On Jan. 30, 2008, Paul had over 131,000 “friends” on MySpace,[191] and was the Republican winner of the MySpace Presidential Primary in January 2008, with 37% of the votes -wikipedia
9.) He has powerful grass root campaign abilties.

Hey Anthony, can you explain what you mean when you put someone on Possibilites? I find it confusing…

and now…

8 REASONS WHY DONALD TRUMP SHOULD BE INCLUDED

1.) He has already shown the ability to poll within 5% points of Obama CONSISTENTLY
2.) He said that he is willing to spend $600,000,000 on his campaign.
3.) He is polling higher than Barbour, Pawlenty, Paul, and Gingrich.
4.) Donald Trump’s economic experience would resonate with voters who want an improved economy.
5.) He can attract independents and Democrats
6.) He commands more respect than other candidates.
7.) He has a national stage on which he could promote his candidacy “The Apprentice”
8.) He would largely have the backing of the business community and would be an expert at fundraising.

“Rubio says he does not want to President or Vice-President. He only should be on the VP list because he should be hands down the VP nominee.”

Well, Chris Christie, David Petraeus, Bobby Jindal, Russ Feingold, and Hillary Clinton are being included and they have denied rumors of a 2012 run (In his concession speech, Russ Feingold mentioned 2012 as a comeback time for Democrats…Not as a future presidential run)

Rubio has been pretty outspoken on the issues at hand such as a Balanced Budget. I think he’d make an excellent addition.

POLLWONK, I not against him being added to the game, but he was not given any signs that he is interested in running. Russ Feingold is being told by Tom Harken that he has a “wonderful future” and Herb Kohl called for “national role” for Feingold. This leads me to believe that he is being told to run for President. He is also fed up with Jeffrey Immelt holds as chair of President Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness. Feingold’s pac allows him to raise money for Presidental bid.

Rubio has no traction. He is in single digits in the polls. There no significant draft movement supporting him for President. Russ Feingold and Ron Paul have the biggest draft movements, while Sanders is ahead of Hillary and Dean. There is no polling for the Democratic Primary because it hasn’t occured to them that a primary challeger could emerge. The Progressive base is rebelling and is going to fight back.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXBiWLfsNas

Half the Democratic Party wants to primary Obama. It is not unreasonable that Senator Feingold may end up running like Ted Kennedy did against Carter. The number of the Democratic Party who wants to primary the President probably has increased because of Obama’s cave in on taxes and on the budget.

“In every poll the Tea Party had, Donald Trump came out number one,” Wilkinson said in a message to supporters. “America is tired of politicians giving speeches. We want to hear from people that have proven business experience. This should be an exciting day for America.”

1.) He is a powerful fundraiser who is very shrewd.
2.) He knows how to get his name out into public squares and the media without making himself look like an idiot.
3.) He has consistenly polled within 5% of Obama and only about 5% behind Huckabee (who is polling the highest among Republicans)
4.) His past business success is a sign of great leadership.
5.) He is growing popular among the Tea-party.
6.) He may very well gain alot of endorsements from Governors (like Kasich, Walker, and Daniels) for his tough stance against unions.
7.) Trump would have the entire business community behind him (Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have stated their support for a possible Trump candidacy)
8.) He has not ruled out a run. In fact, he’s leaning toward a run.
9.) He would have a tremendous opportunity to really market his name positively if he ran. He is willing to spend $600,000,000 on his camapign. He could immediatly start producing ads endorsing his record and his ideas while also tearing down Obama’s economy. He would already have enough money to make it through the campaign. He could define himself before Obama and the Democrats would have a chanec, considering Obama does not have 7,000,000 yet in his reelection campaign.
10.) Trump could win. Donald Trump started out as a middle-class citizen and through hard work managed to become arguably the world’s most recognized businessman.

Lieberman+Manchin+Bayh+Warner…They’re all blue-dog Democrats or moderates. Considering Feingold, Sanders, and Dean you could say are liberal, the Democrats might balance the ticket out.

Rahm Emanuel: It was just a joke

Webb+Specter: Both are leaving politics. However, they both command alot of respect from the Democratic Party. Webb for defeating George Allen in 06 and Specter for giving the Democrats their temporary 60-seat filibuster proof Senate.

Russ Feingold is hard to classify, he is a real constitutional conservative (or defender of the Constitution), fiscally responsible, socially progressive, and against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is REAL moderate even though he drawns alot support from the Progressive Base.

Sec. Hillary Clinton is a real moderate Democrat, but has some issues with Russ Feingold, but I could see Russ Feingold asking her to serve as VP.

If a more progressive challenger beats Obama, it would make sense for them to choose Hillary Clinton. Some African Americans would not show up to the polls. A more progressive challenger would need women to make up the difference in voter turn out.

I think Olympia Snowe would be a reasonable choice for a Democrat. She is like the Democrats version of Joe Lieberman…Lieberman sides more with the GOP, yet he is a Democrat. He almost got picked by McCain in 08.

“I think Olympia Snowe would be a reasonable choice for a Democrat. She is like the Democrats version of Joe Lieberman…Lieberman sides more with the GOP, yet he is a Democrat. He almost got picked by McCain in 08.”

Then Olympia Snowe is RINO (Republican in name only).
Sen. Blanche Lincoln is DINO (Democrat in name only).

Senator Russ Feingold is a moderate center left democrat. The American people are center left. We are center left nation. The real center is center left

I am 100% sure that Senator Feingold would NEVER chose Blanche Lincoln. She is a corporatist and Feingold is against the corporations. Feingold would only chose people who are against the corporations.

Lincoln would never help anyone win in AR or any other state. She is too unpopular. A Feingold Clinton-ticket would take AK (6 EV) and make WV(5) KY(8), TN(11), GA (16), LA (8) possibly in reach for the democrates.

A Clinton pick would a) bring out women b) unite and energize the party C) Help Feingold contest the South which makes it very likely that the ticket could win.

Hillary Clinton supporters would go nuts if a Democrat chose a women who was not Hillary to be their running mate. If you want a woman for the democratic vp nominee, then you have to go with Hillary Clinton.

Because I’ve been focusing on PM4E Canada 2011 – it looks like RP will be forming an exploratory committee and will be in the first debate, if so he’ll be included. Trump is polling well, so will be included at least as an optional candidate. He’ll be set to ‘OFF’ unless he actually forms an exploratory committee come June (or whenever).

I’ve moved: Ron Paul and Donald Trump from Possible to the Republican list. Ron Paul set to ‘ON’.

@Karl, probably add an issue along the lines of “require presidential candidates to prove that they are U.S. citizens before they can be included on a state ballot.” Left is “not necessary,” Right is “necessary.”

1. Abortion
2. Debt
3. Obama’ Health Care law –Medicare buy in (left), Public Option (center left) leave it be (center) right (repeal and replace)
4. Education
5. Energy
6. Environment
7. Gun Control
8. Military Spending
9. Immigration
10. Regulation Far Left support (Glass-Steague), Far Right (No regulation)
11. Taxes Rates
12. Same Sex-marriage
13. War on Terror
14. Economy
15. Government Spending
16. Birther
17. Social Security – increase funding (left), Raise the Retirement Age (right)
18. Change- Far Left (Obama is a Corporate and Republican pawn) Left (Obama is a Corporate pawn) center left (Obama failed to bring his vision of change that campaigned on) Center Right (The American people have rejected Obama’s polices)
Right (The American people have Strongly rejected Obama’s policies) Far Right (Obama is Socialist)

Abortion- LOW
Balanced Budget- VERY HIGH
Libya- HIGH
Economy-VERY HIGH
Unions-MEDIUM(assuming that the issue will die down by 2012)
Government Spending-VERY HIGH)
War in Afghanistan (Since we are only fighting in Afghanistan, I think the name should be WiA rather than War on Terror) -MEDIUM
Obamacare – VERY HIGH
Immigration-LOW
Campaign Finance Reform-LOW
Gun Control-LOW
Same-Sex Marriage-LOW
Stem Cells-LOW
Tax Rates-MEDIUM
Enviorment-MEDIUM
Energy-LOW
Inteventionalism-MEDIUM
Education-LOW
Social Security-MEDIUM
Obama Birth Certificate-LOW

“Bush, on the other hand, has a solid conservative record that wasn’t compiled in Washington and broad appeal in a critical state; for a party conspicuously lacking a positive agenda, he’s also known as an ideas guy. Bush hasn’t followed the Tea Partiers to the political fringes — he opposed Arizona’s racial profiling law, for instance — but neither has he ignored them. On Monday, he’ll appear at a Kentucky fundraiser for Tea Party favorite and GOP Senate nominee Rand Paul.

But what about his big obstacle — the name? It’s often simply asserted that Bush could never overcome the burden. But there’s clear evidence that voters distinguish between George W. Bush and his family members. In a 2008 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll [pdf], 35 percent of voters held a favorable opinion of George W., versus 65 percent who viewed him unfavorably. Those numbers reversed for his father: 57 percent viewed him favorably and just 34 percent unfavorably.

Would Republicans dare coalesce behind Bush? Surely they would. The hallmark of today’s politics is a truculent refusal to concede error. What could possibly show up those arrogant liberals like nominating another Bush? Nor is it apparent that doing so would be politically perilous. As Obama’s approval ratings continue to fall, it seems ever more likely that the 2012 election will be hard-fought and close, regardless of who is the Republican nominee. And Jeb Bush’s appeal to the center is at least as strong as that of his colleagues.”

Jeb Bush is a powerful fundraiser and a strong speaker. He is also SUPER popular among Hispanics and Latinos, a key voting block in elections. He was also one of the most popular Governors in America while in office. He also passed many reforms while governor such as Education Reform and Capital Punishment. He also successfully guided Florida through the 2004 Hurricane Season which had more storms than any other year within the past fifty years. His support also isn’t limited to the party establishment. He campaigned for Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and many Tea-Partiers in 2010. He is more conservative than his brother and is a very good campaigner…

1) It’s a wide-open field for a nomination that’s worth having. Rarely do you get such a convergence of a beatable incumbent president with a wide-open field to challenge him. Obama is slightly below 50 percent in the polls, with a real weakness in the middle of the country, and he’s saddled with a recovery that has yet to produce substantial job growth. Yet there is no true frontrunner in the race to challenge him. It’s hard to imagine an environment better suited for a heavyweight like Jeb to make a run.

2) 2016 is too late I. By 2016, Jeb will have been out of office ten years. No doubt he will have made many contributions to the cause in the interim, but by then his main credential — his governorship and its accomplishments — will seem like yesterday’s news. Right now he has the feel of an elder statesman of the party while his time in office is still fresh.

3) 2016 is too late II. By 2016, a bumper crop of Republican talent will be poised to storm the national stage. Marco Rubio not only will be the hot new thing out of Florida, he’ll be seasoned. Chris Christie will be ready. A host of senators and governors — freshly minted in the 2010 elections, so it’s too soon for them to run now — will be ready to go. Jeb will not be such a predominant figure in such a robust field. The crop of prospective GOP candidates this time reflects the downdraft in Republican fortunes in 2006 and 2008. Jeb would loom all the larger for it.

4) The Bush rehabilitation has begun. George W. Bush is not exactly popular, but two years of Obama have taken the edge off W.-hatred, and he’s risen from the depths of his unpopularity near the end of his presidency. Gallup had a poll in December that had Bush’s approval rating very slightly above President Obama’s. Bush’s book, Decision Points, and the accompanying media tour were successes. In 2008, Jeb’s association with his brother would have been an absolute killer. That’s not true anymore. The controversies that made the Bush years so venomous have faded, and — partly through the miracle of the accelerated news cycle — 2000–2008 already feels somewhat distant.

5) Jeb will still be a Bush in 2016. There’s no doubt that it will always be awkward for Jeb to be the third Bush; it will always have a dynastic feel about it. But that will remain as true in 2016. If Jeb runs in four years, after Obama presumably wins a second term in 2012, he will still be vying to be the third Republican president in a row who’s a Bush. Waiting until 2016 won’t make that fact any less odd.

6) He’s not just another Bush. Jeb is different from his patrician dad and different from his thoroughly Texan brother. As soon as people see him on the national stage, they’ll realize he’s his own person and has to be taken on his own terms.

7) Jeb can unite the party. Jeb probably has a better chance to unite the establishment and Tea Party wings of the GOP than anyone else, certainly a better chance than Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney would seem to have at this juncture. The establishment would presumably flock to Jeb, while he’d have a record of solid conservative accomplishment to sell to the conservative base. Some tea partiers will have zero interest in another Bush, and Jeb will take his lumps on immigration (at NR, we’ll look forward to administering some of them, and trying to change his mind). It’s a very volatile environment, and were he to run, much would obviously depend on how he actually campaigned. But he would stand a good chance of avoiding a damaging division in the party.

8) Waiting is almost always a mistake. It’s an axiom of presidential politics that you have to run when you have the opening, even if it seems “too soon.” This is why Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected president and Mario Cuomo never was. Jeb’s opening is now — “too soon” after his brother’s presidency, “too soon” into his life as an ex-governor — and it will probably never quite be there again.

-end of quote-

Jeb Bush NEEDS to be included in the game. Jeb Bush DESERVES to be included. If Chris Christie and Petraeus are being included, then Bush should be added.

1) It’s a wide-open field for a nomination that’s worth having. Rarely do you get such a convergence of a beatable incumbent president with a wide-open field to challenge him. Obama is slightly below 50 percent in the polls, with a real weakness in the middle of the country, and he’s saddled with a recovery that has yet to produce substantial job growth. Yet there is no true frontrunner in the race to challenge him. It’s hard to imagine an environment better suited for a heavyweight like Jeb to make a run.

2) 2016 is too late I. By 2016, Jeb will have been out of office ten years. No doubt he will have made many contributions to the cause in the interim, but by then his main credential — his governorship and its accomplishments — will seem like yesterday’s news. Right now he has the feel of an elder statesman of the party while his time in office is still fresh.

3) 2016 is too late II. By 2016, a bumper crop of Republican talent will be poised to storm the national stage. Marco Rubio not only will be the hot new thing out of Florida, he’ll be seasoned. Chris Christie will be ready. A host of senators and governors — freshly minted in the 2010 elections, so it’s too soon for them to run now — will be ready to go. Jeb will not be such a predominant figure in such a robust field. The crop of prospective GOP candidates this time reflects the downdraft in Republican fortunes in 2006 and 2008. Jeb would loom all the larger for it.

4) The Bush rehabilitation has begun. George W. Bush is not exactly popular, but two years of Obama have taken the edge off W.-hatred, and he’s risen from the depths of his unpopularity near the end of his presidency. Gallup had a poll in December that had Bush’s approval rating very slightly above President Obama’s. Bush’s book, Decision Points, and the accompanying media tour were successes. In 2008, Jeb’s association with his brother would have been an absolute killer. That’s not true anymore. The controversies that made the Bush years so venomous have faded, and — partly through the miracle of the accelerated news cycle — 2000–2008 already feels somewhat distant.

5) Jeb will still be a Bush in 2016. There’s no doubt that it will always be awkward for Jeb to be the third Bush; it will always have a dynastic feel about it. But that will remain as true in 2016. If Jeb runs in four years, after Obama presumably wins a second term in 2012, he will still be vying to be the third Republican president in a row who’s a Bush. Waiting until 2016 won’t make that fact any less odd.

6) He’s not just another Bush. Jeb is different from his patrician dad and different from his thoroughly Texan brother. As soon as people see him on the national stage, they’ll realize he’s his own person and has to be taken on his own terms.

7) Jeb can unite the party. Jeb probably has a better chance to unite the establishment and Tea Party wings of the GOP than anyone else, certainly a better chance than Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney would seem to have at this juncture. The establishment would presumably flock to Jeb, while he’d have a record of solid conservative accomplishment to sell to the conservative base. Some tea partiers will have zero interest in another Bush, and Jeb will take his lumps on immigration (at NR, we’ll look forward to administering some of them, and trying to change his mind). It’s a very volatile environment, and were he to run, much would obviously depend on how he actually campaigned. But he would stand a good chance of avoiding a damaging division in the party.

8) Waiting is almost always a mistake. It’s an axiom of presidential politics that you have to run when you have the opening, even if it seems “too soon.” This is why Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected president and Mario Cuomo never was. Jeb’s opening is now — “too soon” after his brother’s presidency, “too soon” into his life as an ex-governor — and it will probably never quite be there again.

-end of quote-

Jeb Bush NEEDS to be included in the game. Jeb Bush DESERVES to be included. If Chris Christie and Petraeus are being included, then Bush should be added.

POLLWONK: “Jeb Bush NEEDS to be included in the game. Jeb Bush DESERVES to be included. If Chris Christie and Petraeus are being included, then Bush should be added.”

anthony_270admin: “Re: Jeb Bush: like with Paul, if something actually starts to happen, then we’ll include him.”

Senator Russ Feingold may pick up where Ted Kennedy left off and primary a sitting President. He definitely should be included. There is a possibility that Feingold may run if Obama angers Progressives base (which Obama may already have done) enough. Senator Feingold raised 1 million dollars in two months which puts in the same league as Presidential contenders. He could be gearing up a Presidential bid that has at least 20,000 donors. Senator Feingold currently has no exploratory committee and has not announced his candidacy.

Christie, Petraeus, and Jindal are good “what if” candidates. Potential candidates who are probably not going to run should be added if you are going by this standard. Hillary Clinton is a “what if candidate” who enjoys huge support from Democratic Party, so she is included.

Jeb Bush DEFINATELY should be included as a “what if” candidate. He would have tons of support from moderate and conservatives from the Republican Party. He probably is the only guy who could unite them all. If Jeb Bush runs for President, I believe he will be the Republican Nominee and possibly the 45th President if Obama is the nominee.

@270Admin
Re: Jeb Bush: like with Paul, if something actually starts to happen, then we’ll include him.

Okay, but why then is David Petraeus, Chris Christie, and Bobby Jindal all being included when they keep saying no way? All speculation has died for their “dreamy” candidacy…meanwhile speculation is still burning hard for Jeb Bush. And Jeb Bush has been rumored as a possible candidate since 1998 when he won the Governor’s job.

@270 Admin: At this point, I don’t want to add any more candidates who aren’t likely to run. Again, if serious noises start being made about Jeb Bush running, I’ll look at it.

Hmm…well Elliot and I have provided recent evidence…Petraeus has said he has zero interest in poltics and will never run for president. Plus, a big controversy is brewing over his motives for supporting a troop withdrawal has shut down all speculation of a Petraeus run…therefore, you could possibly move him to possibles and add Jeb Bush. I mean, Jeb has not ruled out a 2016 bid…there’s still rumors blaring about a BUSH RETURN. I think Jeb should be included.

other candidates on the list that have lost presidential speculation are Christie and Jindal.

General David Petraeus is a general, he won’t able to run unless he retires. I doubt that he would run even if he retires. It is rumored that he is going to retire because he doesn’t have the stamina anymore to be a general that is commanding wars. Pretraeus should be moved to possibles and Jeb Bush should be added.

General David Petraeus is a general, he won’t able to run unless he retires. I doubt that he would run even if he retires. It is rumored that he is going to retire because he doesn’t have the stamina anymore to be a general that is commanding wars. Pretraeus should be moved to possibles and Jeb Bush should be added.

The only serious Democratic candidate will be Barack Obama, with the possibility of a gadfly like Mike Gravel entering the race. I don’t think that Gravel should be included (he wasn’t included in the 2008 game, and he would average 0-1% the whole way through with no hope of earning any delegates). For the game’s sake (and for that purpose only), Hillary Clinton probably should be included. Mark Penn had originally done some polling on a hypothetical Obama / Clinton rematch, so it was feasible for a time. On the flip side, people like Russ Feingold and Bernie Sanders have not earned much speculation in the media at all. It probably isn’t the best idea to include them. I say that the Clinton addition makes sense because Powell and Chafee were added to the 2004 game against Bush. There was speculation about a Powell candidacy, and Chafee later acknowledged that he did flirt with a challenge to Bush in the New Hampshire primary. I don’t think that Feingold or Sanders have either seriously acknowledged the possibility of challenging Obama. By the way, can we please stop talking about Alvin Greene?

Here is my list of Republican candidates who should be included (and their status in the game):

Any more than 16 candidates, in my opinion, would be a bit much. Is it possible that former Ambassador John Bolton could enter the race. Yes, it is. However, it is also possible that former Ambassador Alan Keyes could also enter the race. Does that necessarily mean that Keyes should be included in the game? Like Gravel, I’m not so sure.

Here is a list of the most-speculated V.P. candidates:

Obama will run with Joe Biden again in 2012. Since Clinton will be included, I would suggest that her runningmate be former Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana. There was widespread speculation that she would have asked him to join the ticket had she won the nomination in 2008, and he would’ve probably been her best fit in 2012.

I’m from Massachusetts, and I know that Scott Brown would never be asked to be the Republican Party’s vice-presidential nominee in 2012, nor would he be asked. He has developed a center-left voting record in the Senate in order to place himself in a strong position to be re-elected. There would be a Tea Party revolt if Brown was chosen by any potential Republican nominee. Also, he is in a very strong position to be re-elected next year. I don’t think that he would abandon a strong campaign in order to take a position on a ticket that is running what will probably be a very close race against President Obama. Also, John Thune might be a possibility. However, he is on his way toward earning a higher position of leadership in the Senate. He didn’t want to give up that track to power, and he might refuse it again if asked to join the Republican ticket in 2012.

With regards to the General Election numbers, I recently averaged the results of the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008, as well as the midterm election results from the 2010 races (I didn’t include vote totals for candidates who received more than 65% of the vote in their respective campaigns, as these are “landslide outliers” and don’t add-in well when trying to determine realistic percentages for the 2012 race). I will include these data findings in a later post. I will also include my suggestions for issues.

“The only serious Democratic candidate will be Barack Obama” “On the flip side, people like Russ Feingold and Bernie Sanders have not earned much speculation in the media at all. It probably isn’t the best idea to include them.”

Barack Obama is going to cut Social Security. The American people will hate that. Feingold should be included because the Democratic Party’s Progressive base is demanding a Primary, and if Obama cuts Social Security, MOST of the Democratic Party not just the Progressive base of the party will want to primary him.

I totally agree. I will not be voting for Obama in 2012 – I’m already 100% committed to supporting the Republican nominee, whoever he or she is. I just think that if Feingold was running, he would’ve started his campaign (or at least talking about it) by now. He can’t all of a sudden announce his candidacy four months before the Iowa caucuses and expect to hit even 30%. He’d be on a fools errand. No Democrat is going to beat President Obama by a long shot. Also, Feingold’s chief of staff said that his boss will not be running for president in 2012: “Senator Feingold is not running for president in 2012. Any suggestion he is thinking of running, planning to run, or interested in running is untrue. Senator Feingold is a strong supporter of President Barack Obama and wants to see him reelected in 2012” (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/131811-feingold-is-not-running-for-president-in-2012).

Half the Democratic Party wants to primary Obama. It is not unreasonable that Senator Feingold may end up running like Ted Kennedy did against Carter. The number of the Democratic Party who wants to primary the President probably has increased because of Obama’s cave in on taxes and on the budget.

My personal opinion is that Feingold should be included. I agree with Dave that he won’t run, but considering no one is running, theoryspark needs more options. I mean, you really can’t run as Randall Terry and win against Obama can you? I agree with many of Dave’s ideas for Republican Candidates like Gary Johnson and Ray Moore. I would suggest more Democratic options though…here is my list…

“My personal opinion is that Feingold should be included. I agree with Dave that he won’t run, but considering no one is running, theoryspark needs more options. I mean, you really can’t run as Randall Terry and win against Obama can you? I agree with many of Dave’s ideas for Republican Candidates like Gary Johnson and Ray Moore. I would suggest more Democratic options though…here is my list…

I believe that the climate is right for a primary challenge win against Obama. I believe a more Progressive candidate would be 6 to 10 favorite. Will there be a primary challenge, well… it is at the most 25% chance of Democratic primary. I think Obama will be the candidate, but there should options, so you can create a “what if” game.

Government Spending and the Budget Deficit could be combined into one issue, since they are both related. Another possibility could be Transportation (Obama’s been talking about it lately), or even “Role of America” (separated from Military Intervention, focusing on dealing with crises in Egypt, etc. do we get involved, or do we stay away from trouble?). Campaign Finance Reform may also become an issue again in 2012. With Obama on track to raising a billion dollars and Romney and Trump injecting their personal fortunes into the race, and Buddy Roemer already basing his campaign off of it… Also, Drugs could be an issue – it’ll be Gary Johnson’s big issue. Or… Personal Liberty — the Tea Party issue. Just some additional thoughts.

People are going to mad when cuts to Social Security and Medicare are made between 2/5 to 3/5 chance.

Well, that’s very much an assumption. That scenario happened in 1995 with Clinton and Gingrich during the shutdown, but today, people are FAR more open to reductions in government spending. In fact, WSJ polls have shown more people want major to minor changes in Medicare and Social Security.

“Well, that’s very much an assumption. That scenario happened in 1995 with Clinton and Gingrich during the shutdown, but today, people are FAR more open to reductions in government spending. In fact, WSJ polls have shown more people want major to minor changes in Medicare and Social Security.”

It is not an assumption. Polls show that Americans are against raising the retirement age or cutting social security. The goverment does not spend money on Social Security.

1) Social Security has a $2.6 trillion surplus.It pays 100% of the benefits until 2037 where it pays 77% of all benefits.
2) Polls show that Americans are against cutting benefits or raising the retirement age

However, large majorities oppose cutting some of the biggest government programs including:
Social Security payments (by 80% to 11%);
Federal aid to education (by 71% to 21%); and,
Health care (by 67% to 24%).

“Nearly two-thirds of Americans choose higher payroll taxes for Medicare and Social Security over reduced benefits in either program. And asked to choose among cuts to Medicare, Social Security or the nation’s third-largest spending program — the military — a majority by a large margin said cut the Pentagon.

While Americans are near-unanimous in calling deficits a problem — a “very serious” problem, say 7 out of 10 — a majority believes it should not be necessary for them to pay higher taxes to bridge the shortfall between what the government spends and what it takes in. But given a choice of often-discussed revenue options, they preferred a national sales tax or a limit in the deduction for mortgage interest to a higher gasoline tax or taxing employer-provided health benefits.”

“One other interesting finding that may be noted by advocates on both sides of this debate: far fewer people support cuts in these 20 programs today than did so in 1980 when Ronald Reagan became president.”

It is not an assumption. Polls show that Americans are against raising the retirement age or cutting social security. The goverment does not spend money on Social Security.

Well that too is also an assumption. Its assuming that people will automatically say no. Of course you don’t want to wait another five years. I don’t think its very nice. But considering how much deficit our government is racking up through Social Security and Medicare, people are far more open to possible cuts. (Its like a business…people don’t want interest rates to rise in a very fun and helpful corporation. Yet they realize that it is something that needs to be done.) The Republican party has been WINNING the budget fight, a majority of political analysis wonks agree. Even though they’re making some controversial decisions, the GOP has successfully stressed the need for changes to social security and has also shown strong convictions while also showing a negotiable spirit which has done two things…1.) Put them in the winning position in this budget fight…2.) Caused Obama to look unpresidential, brash, and indecisive.

Social Security currently has a $2.6 trillion surplus.It pays 100% of the benefits until 2037 where it pays 77% of all benefits. It does NOT add the Deficit. The U.S. budget director Jack Lew testifed before Congress saying it has not added the Deficit, it pays 100% of the benefits until 2037 where it pays 77% of all benefits. The Polls are based on representative samples of Americans and indicate that public opinion is against raising the retirement age and cutting Social Security.

“Social Security has built up a $2.5 trillion surplus since the retirement program was last overhauled in the 1980s. Benefits will be safe until that money runs out. That is projected to happen in 2037 — unless Congress acts in the meantime. At that point, Social Security would collect enough in payroll taxes to pay out about 78 percent of benefits, according to the Social Security Administration.”

The whole idea of having a surplus and collecting the money was so there would be enough funds to cover the baby boomers when they retire. There may be less money being put in than is taken out but it is not contributing to the deficit since the surplus is in the fund for this very purpose. The baby boomers have contributed to the funds for many years creating a surplus on which they will draw as they retire.

I know that this isn’t a General Election blog category, but I wanted to share the results of my data research project. I averaged the election results from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections as well as the 2010 midterm elections in order to figure out the trends heading into 2012. Many, many speculators have suggested that the 2012 electoral map will be similar to the 2004 electoral map, and the 2010 results have confirmed these suggestions. For the sake of accuracy, and to give Obama credit where credit is due, I think that the 2008 results should be included in this average (not to mention, the current General Election polls for 2012 are indicating that some states will render similar results to 2008). Here are the numbers:

David Petraeus shouldn’t be included anywhere in this game. It has recently been announced that he will be nominated to be the next Director of the CIA. Also, Jeb Bush won’t do a thing nationally until at least 2016 (if Obama wins re-election in 2012, that is).

@anthony_270admin

I have some ideas about how to describe some of the candidates in their description boxes:

President Barack Obama — After a challenging first term, he will be a weaker candidate than he was in 2008. However, he will still be a formidable force to be reckoned with in 2012. (Attributes: Leadership – 3, Integrity – 3, Experience – 5, Issue Familiarity – 4, Charisma – 5, Stamina – 4, Debating – 3). Lowered leadership rating from 2008 (Obama is, by all accounts, a weaker leader than had been originally anticipated), and an increased experience rating (despite concerns about his experience in 2008, he is now our president, which is the ultimate political experience).

Governor Mitt Romney — Came in second in the 2008 primaries, is trying again in 2012. Will face questions about his past political positions, the controversial health care reforms that he put into place as governor, and his Mormon faith. Will he be able to overcome them this time? (Attributes: Leadership – 4, Integrity – 4, Experience – 3, Issue Familiarity – 4, Charisma – 4, Stamina – 4, Debating – 4). Why is his experience rating at “3?” Politically speaking, he has been elected to public office ONCE…

Speaker Newt Gingrich — Attributes: Leadership – 4, Integrity – 2, Experience – 4, Issue Familiarity – 5, Charisma – 2, Stamina – 3, Debating – 5. Gingrich’s integrity rating should be no higher than “2,” and his issue familiarity and debating rating should be as high as possible. Gingrich is an outstanding debater and is widely considered by folks on both sides to have an impressive grasp of the issues.

I haven’t heard anything about Sen. Judd Gregg running for President. I would put him on possible (OFF).

“Turning toward his own political future, Gregg said it’s “not likely” that he will run for president in 2012 – though he didn’t foreclose that possibility.

“In New Hampshire we like to have a variety of candidates, so I would seriously doubt that. I expect to be actively involved in the presidential primary. That’s’ the fun on coming from New Hampshire and being in office,” Gregg said.

“I don’t rule out anything in my future. Let’s face it — that’s not likely and I wouldn’t expect to be doing that,” he added.”

“If they’re included as Presidential candidates, then they will automatically be VP candidates, as well.”

Then can Gov. Howard Dean (OFF) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (OFF) be included? Both are popular alternatives to the President.

Sen. Russ Feingold or Sec. of State Hillary Clinton don’t have much of a choice for VP. Senator Feingold would probably not choose Biden or Clinton. Senator Hillary Clinton would probably not choose Biden or Feingold for VP. There is a need for more democratic VP candidates.

I know she’s trending much lower these days, but any chance of having a scenario in which should Romney or some other “moderate” become a lock for the Republican nomination, Palin gets in as a third party? Not likely to happen in reality, but she has at least hinted that there may be a need for a third party and recent polling shows 52% of Americans think there should be one and those numbers are higher among Republicans and Independents. It could be something you can turn on/off depending on if you wanted itincluded as you played.

@Elliot – She has publicly said that if the Republicans don’t tow-the-line a third party is an option. You’ll have to ask her why she would want to do that. And, again, I said it isn’t likely to happen. Other option would be to have her and Trump as potential independent candidates.

“She has publicly said that if the Republicans don’t tow-the-line a third party is an option. You’ll have to ask her why she would want to do that. And, again, I said it isn’t likely to happen. Other option would be to have her and Trump as potential independent candidates”

Agreed. Palin probably won’t run anyway. She’s probably going to throw her support behind Bachmann or Cain (who by the way should be included). Plus, Sarah Palin has become so into Hollywood with her TV show and her daughter being in the spotlight that she wouldn’t dare give it all up. If ever wants to win the Oval Office, she’d probably have to win the US Senate in 2014 over Begich…Wait out about two terms and then run in 2024…or 2028…but for 2012, not likely.

If it isn’t too late I think Sec. Robert Gates should be added to the list of VP candidates for the Republican field seeing that he is leaving the Obama Administration in the summer. It would be a very smart pick-up for the nominee.

Some pundits are speculating that Gov. Rick Perry might mount a later entry bid for the Republican nomination. Perry has said that he doesn’t want to run, however he is putting out feelers currently and he said that he would be “the ideal Republican candidate.”

Herman Cain announced that he is running on the 21st. He also participated in the debate in South Carolina, has confirmed for the next debate, gained an insane amount of traction among the TEA Party and is polling in the top 3 in many places (the last two Zogby polls have had him second behind Christie and first, ahead of Christie respectively – it doesn’t need to be said that Zogby is a major polling organization). I think it’s time to move him from Possible to Definite > ON.

It’s great that President Forever 2012 is on its way! I can’t add anything that’s not already been said here candidate wise, except that Herman Cain appears to be a serious candidate. While the polls are volatile, he’s performing well in them, particularly the last Zogby poll. Also, I have friends in Iowa who have told me that Cain is hard at work there meeting people and laying the foundation for an organization. At this point, I believe the field is pretty well set, with a slight possibility that Rick Perry could enter the race and an even slighter possibility that Chris Christie could be coaxed into the race. So, just to make sure I’m getting this right, the GOP field for president on P4E12 will be Romney, Pawlenty, Hunstman, Gingrich, Santorum, and Bachmann. What about Giuliani, Palin, Christie, and Perry? Will they be GOP candidates in the game? Thanks for doing great work and producing the single most fastinating game I’ve ever played.

Here is an idea for national endorsers. If Gov. Huckabee ran, he would get his endorsement. If Gov. Palin ran, she would get her own endorsement.

Gov. Mike Huckabee- Gov. Mike Huckabee enjoys great support from the middle class and religious conservatives. His endorsement would be of great value to any Republican candidate for President.

Gov. Sarah Palin (assuming she doesn’t run): Although not as popular with the American people as Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Sarah Palin’s endorsement would help gain support from religious and fiscal conservatives and would be a great value to lock up the Republican base.

Of course I want a good game…but the problem I have is this was supposed to be released in February…then it got pushed back to 2ndQ 2011. Well, now it seems like all 270soft cares about now is Canadian and Australian Games!!!!

@Elliot, “Here is an idea for national endorsers. If Gov. Huckabee ran, he would get his endorsement. If Gov. Palin ran, she would get her own endorsement.”

Thanks for this – endorsers in P4E12 will use IDs, and the game will check to make sure that there isn’t a doubling-up. So, if there’s a Huckabee endorser, and then Huckabee is a player in the game, the Huckabee endorser would be removed.

@Matt, “So, just to make sure I’m getting this right, the GOP field for president on P4E12 will be Romney, Pawlenty, Hunstman, Gingrich, Santorum, and Bachmann. What about Giuliani, Palin, Christie, and Perry? Will they be GOP candidates in the game?”

In P4E12, the field will be whoever is running in real life. This page is meant to keep track of candidates and possible candidates. So, if Giuliani, Palin, and so on, actually run, then they will be included in the game.

“The reason is: the game isn’t done. Most of the work on PM4E Canada 2011 and PM4E Australia 2011 is directly transferable to P4E12. My guess is that it will be released in the next few months.”

So why is it taking so long? You announced this almost a year ago! If the game isn’t released, then how much longer specifically? We keep hearing a few months…a little while…soon… 270 buyers as well as my self are hoping to have this released.

Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter will be participating in the Iowa Straw Poll in August. Although he is being coy about whether he will officially enter the race, reserving a $15,000 spot in Ames is a pretty big deal. He should probably added to the list.

“U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., has visited both the early primary states of both Iowa and New Hampshire, gauging the reception by conservative voters.
“The people that I’ve run into, they’re not … they don’t mind the field (of candidates), but they’re not particularly enthused about it. They’re more than happy to see more candidates emerge if they do it relatively quickly. It gives them time to get a message out,” McCotter said. ”

Thad McCotter I think is a super long shot. I don’t know whether he should be added or not, but he’s definitly not in a position to win the nomination. At best, he should be polling 0.3%. His overall candidacy will be widely ignored by the media. I don’t think he could win the nomination. He is way too unknown, far too ambitious appearing, and especially uncharismatic.

I might include Thad, but don’t put his chances higher than when Duncan Hunter ran in 08

We understand that you are working very hard on the product, a fact backed up by our interest in the new release. However,” it will be done when its done” and “my guess” is probably not the best PR language to keep customers interested in your product. Even if you way over-exaggerate a date, a hard date would get some of these questions off the forum.

I would probably add Rick Perry by now…Perry is a powerful governor who balanced Texas’s budget, a fact that will resonate well with fisical conservatives. His recent law passed in Texas regarding abortion will haul in socially conservative thinkers

I don’t think Howard Dean is going to challenge Obama…not that a high ranked progressive won’t, I just don’t think it will be Dean. I think he has not given up his hopes on winning the White House, but his best hopes are pinned on 2016, not 2012…he would grow unpopular with party establishment…I think a more likely candidate would be Dennis Kucinich.

Still, I would be open to having Dean in the game, though I doubt he’ll run…I actually like the idea of having alot of challengers to the president…makes the game more exciting!!!

1st Amendment/Freedom of Speech/Censorship
– Censorship of hate speech, Fairness Doctrine, No government control of news nor censorship, censorship of pornography, censorship of bad language/drugs
1st Amendment/Freedom of Religion/Church State/Building of Mosques
– No mention of religion in public, religion should have no bearing on government, government has no right to prohibit any religious freedom, religion has a place in government, only Christians should serve in government.
– Religious buildings should be outlawed, mosques should be built to encourage multiculturalism, government has no place in encouraging or discouraging the building of mosques, the community has a right to decide whether a mosque should be built, mosques should not be built as they encourage Sharia Law
2nd Amendment/Gun Ownership
– Ban all guns, ban all automatic weapons, severe gun restrictions, some restrictions on gun ownership, no restrictions on gun ownership
10th Amendment/Constitution
– The Constitution is an old document with no relevance for today, modernism, Democratic/normative reinforcement view, Contemporary literalism, originalist

Things are really heating up. CNN is calling Bachmann the frontrunner in Iowa… Finding that a little hard to believe. Before Perry made his intentions clear, I’da thought Romney had this thing in the bag.

(also interested in an ETA on this, but I don’t mean to rush you. Just excited as hell.)

What about Lisa Lingle on the VP list? Just to annoy Obama, I suppose.
Also, could it be possible to choose a VP amongst the primary rivals who have already dropped out? That wasn’t possible last time around, as I recall.

Oh…What about Trump as an independent? He’s made noise in that direction. Though you’d probably have to put his integrity at a 1.

I think Romney is probably going end up taking the nomination. His top 5 challengers were…
1.) Tim Pawlenty (from late 2010 to May 2011)…Romney managed to rebutt Pawlenty and make Pawlenty look foolish
2.) Jon Huntsman…Romney has officially made Huntsman look leftist while portraying himself (romney) as a uniter of the party
3.) Michele Bachmann…Romney has managed to avoid Bachmann’s fiery attacks and has made himself look good compared to the Minnesotan
4.) Newt Gingrich…Romney’s organizing skills have trumped Gingrich.
5.) Rick Perry…Romney totally clocked Perry in last debate. Perry looked foolish to be calling Romney a flip-flop.

I am not a fan of Romney’s, but overall,Mitt has put on a better than stellar performance so far this primary season.

please hurry. give the edge to romney but make it a three way race between him, Cain, and Gingrich. That’s the most likely scenario. Please make it happen and please pump this game out. The suspense is killing me.

Add Haley Barbour as a possible candidate…as you recall, he considered running and was chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association for his last two years in office. Pardongate notwithstanding, players should at least have him as a possible option.

I think it would be fitting to have an issue to add an issue to represent personal privacy… With all the legislation over the last decade conscerning the 4th ammendment it certainly wouldnt be out of place.