Hurricane IRENE

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HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
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FORECASTER BROWN
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