Thursday, 17 November 2016

£10.

I signed up to an online betting website, and put a ten pound bet on Jeremy Corbyn for next PM.

Corbyn is the 9-2 favourite, followed by Boris Johnson at 11-2.

Not totally sure how things work. Do the bookies set the odds based on what bets have come in? or on what they theink the likelihood of something happening is? Presumably they have to at least start with an assumption - opening odds, but then if a lot of money goes to one place, they will lower the odds on that particular thing.

I also get 3 free £10 bets as a sweetener. I suppose I might as well use them. So I've been looking around the politics bit.

The bookies reckon that if there's another Scottish independence vote, it will be in favour. 2/5 for yes. 7/4 for no.

They also reckon the Conservatives will be most likely to get an overall majority at the next election. (8/11) with No overall majority second favourite (6/4) and a Labour Majority as a 5/1 outside chance.

4 comments:

Pete
said...

Your first question

The odds are chiefly determined by the market, compiler knowledge and the over-round.

Let us say of all bets on the market at the moment around 14% or 1 in 7 were being placed on Jeremy Corbyn. 1 in 7 gives us UK bookmaker odds of 6/1. However if the bookie offers 6/1, he makes no profit on the book.

This is where the over-round comes in. He needs to increase the percentage on all the selections so they total GREATER than 100%. 125% might be a normal figure giving an over-round of 25%. Jeremy Corbyn's percentage would be priced at 14% + (25% of 14%) = 17.5%. 17.5% equates to odds between 9/2 and 5/1.

Second question

Also join up to Betfair and with your free bets, back the other side of your bet, so that whatever happens you make a profit. You also get more free bets on joining Betfair. This however is boring for some people and the thrill of betting is gone. However, in regard to this point and in regard to the post overall, what are you seeking here? Monetary gain? Confirmation of your belief, particularly that you have spotted something others haven't? Something more to cheer about if JC does become the next PM? A confirmation that the implied chance of 18% in the odds does not reflect reality?

As your risk-averse advisor with OCD tendencies, I am here to provide this dull and sensible advice.

blogger thought this was spam so it got forwarded to my email, but wasn't published until I unspammed it.

Went with Paddy Power, more or less randomly.

Why? Well I can afford to lose ten quid, and I'm not really bothered if I win 40 or 50 quid or so. Just the icing on the cake is all I suppose. And a desire to put my money where my mouth is.

I put one of the free bets on Tranmere getting automatic promotion. This was before Forest Green got beaten at home by Lincoln City, and Tranmere won away at Braintree. Dunno if that's changed anything. Another went on a Labour Majority at the next election. Got one left, plus an extra fiver from somewhere. Might just have a punt on Mickey Mellon's Su' Whi' Army defeating the mighty Forest Green on Tuesday.

and so I di. at 9/4. If Tranmere win, I get £22.50, but they probably won't.

Forest Green are an interesting club. I've just been looking at their website. The owner is an eco-entrepreneur who does lots of green energy stuff, so they're working on an organic pitch, and have lots of solar panels on the roof of the stadium, and no red meat on the menu. I wonder if I could get a quorn burger?