After eight years of discord in the struggle against global terrorism, there seems to be a growing consensus among world leaders about the centrality of tackling terrorism at its source.

Countries teetering on the brink of political and economic failure constitute a fertile breeding ground for all sorts of extremism and must therefore be reinforced to ensure stability and prosperity. Several of those countries can be found in central Asia and more must be done to assist them.

To be fair, world leaders seem to understand the challenge. The Obama administration has changed gears with a new ‘AfPak’ strategy. And the European Union has recently held talks with Pakistan, pledging counter-terrorism assistance and €72 million in humanitarian aid and trade concessions on top of €485 million it has previously provided. Also earlier this year, an EU troika of representatives met with their Central Asian counterparts in Tajikistan to discuss cooperation in the fields of education, economy, rule of law, border management, counter-terrorism and in combating drug trafficking.

Only two months ago, an EU troika of representatives met with their central Asian counterparts in Tajikistan to discuss co-operation in the fields of education, economy, the rule of law, border management and counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics efforts.

Why a regional approach is needed

Europe is well-placed to help with a comprehensive approach to the region, and has good reasons to do so. Central Asia is intricately tied to Europe’s own security. The EU’s counter-terrorism coordinator, Gilles de Kerchove, recently expressed concern over the rising number of Europeans who become radicalised and receive terrorist training in Pakistan.

Several recent terror plots in Europe have shown clear links to Pakistan. For instance, 14 suspects, out of whom 12 were Pakistani citizens, were apprehended in January 2008 by Spanish police on charges of plotting a terrorist attack in Barcelona. And in the 7 July 2005 London bombings, two of the four suicide bombers had allegedly attended a Pakistani terrorist training camp.

It is clear that tackling these problems ‘at home’ also means tackling problems in the neighbourhood of central Asia, including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s terror problems are well known, with militant groups continuing to launch attacks inside the country, frequently targeting the central government despite Islamabad’s efforts to crack down on terrorist organisations.

Some areas of Afghanistan remain under Taliban control and the significant level of instability that they cause still plays a role in fuelling regional conflict. The recent Taliban offensive in the Swat Valley, which left vast areas under Taliban control and more than two million people internally displaced, resulted ostensibly from a lack of security along the Afghan-Pakistani border. Clearly, the Taliban have an expansionist policy, as they are extending their influence into other areas of the country, as we have recently seen in the Punjab region.

Less well known are the problems brewing in Tajikistan. Drug dealers in Afghanistan, the world’s largest producer of opium, are already using Tajikistan as a major supply route for smuggling narcotics into Russia and Europe. A considerable share of Afghan heroin is also presumed to pass through Tajikistan, as well as bordering Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Recent figures from the United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime reveal that the amount of heroin seized in central Asia has skyrocketed. No doubt, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Afghan drug production and regional drug trade are the Taliban.

There are also recent indications that the Taliban are seeking to infiltrate the previously relatively calm Kunduz province in northern Afghanistan, on the border of economically impoverished Tajikistan. In this country recent events suggest Taliban-related activity, mostly related to the drug trade, but with a potential to develop into militant Islamist violence.

Concerns have also been raised about the situation in the Fergana Valley, which is becoming the centre of gravity in the region for both human-rights violations and growth of radicalisation, affecting not only Tajikistan but also Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Limiting the spillover

Left to fester, instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan could eventually affect central Asia and turn up on Europe’s doorstep. The EU should act now to lead the international community’s efforts to take a comprehensive approach to the region. While there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the three countries, a few tasks are pressing.

To counter the potential spillover of instability from Afghanistan and Pakistan into central Asia, the EU should help by building effective capacity among local authorities by sharing expertise in law enforcement and criminal justice, and secondly, by setting up grassroots counter-radicalisation capabilities in order to build an early-warning network beyond the merely operational intelligence capabilities already in use.

To counter the illicit drug trade in the region, the EU should focus on improving border security, especially in the hinterlands separating Afghanistan from Pakistan and Afghanistan from Tajikistan. More specifically, the EU should enhance the impact of its own Central Asia Drug Action Programme (CADAP), update its Border Management in Central Asia Programme (BOMCA), and redouble its efforts to strengthen institutional capacities in Tajikistan for fighting drug production and drug related crime.

Perhaps even more important than these counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics strategies, however, is the need for EU to continue developing a comprehensive approach to the wider central Asia region. The EU should leverage the many tools and instruments it already has at its disposal to promote improvements in rule of law, good governance, education, poverty reduction and water management, to name a few pressing issues

To address the root causes of conflict, and to provide alternative livelihoods to opium farmers, the EU must also raise its rural development assistance to Afghanistan, and boost economic assistance to other countries in the region. Apart from aid, the EU’s recent free-trade agreement with Pakistan should be followed by other initiatives to foster improved trade relations with the region.

In addition, the EU’s engagement, credibility and economic authority can also be used to involve other key stakeholders, including China and Russia, in dialogue and partnerships over long-term goals and objectives in the region.

In summary, while the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan – and indeed in the wider central Asia region – poses formidable challenges, these challenges may also serve as a catalyst for the EU to step up its regional engagement. With the focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the current Swedish presidency of the EU has a good opportunity to muster the political will necessary if the 27 member states are to increase the effectiveness and impact of the existing EU Strategy for Central Asia. It is not only central Asia’s future that, to a large degree, depends on this; increasingly, Europe’s does too.

Mark Rhinard is a senior research fellow and Erik Brattberg is a research assistant at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs in Stockholm.