The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 12. Solar wind speed
at SOHO ranged between 337 and 358 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 127.6 (increasing
2.9
over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 148.5.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three
hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 10012111
(planetary), 10002221 (Boulder).

Region 12280 [S08W82] decayed slowly while rotating
to the west limb.
Region 12281 [N14W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12282 [N14E15] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 12283 [N06W09] emerged with a few spots.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:S4198 [S18W33] was quiet and stable.S4210 [N11E29] was quiet and stable.S4211 [S16E28] reemerged with penumbra spots.S4214 [N08E17] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region S4217 [S04E38] emerged with small spots.
New region S4218 [N15E70] emerged near the east limb.
New region S4219 [N17W17] was observed with a penumbra spot.

February 11-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
imagery.February 10: The M2 flare in AR 12282 just before midnight on February
was associated with a large and wide CME. While most of the ejecta was seen off
the east limb, there were weak extensions off the southwest limb and partly off
the northwest limb. The partial halo CME could cause a glancing blow to the
magnetosphere on February 13.

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole
(CH653) was in an Earth facing position on February 10-12,
CH653 has not been associated with geomagnetic disturbances during previous
rotations, however, the coronal hole extended on February 9-11.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on
February 13-15 with a chance of active intervals on February 13-14. Weak geomagnetic effects associated with CH653 are possible on
February 13-14. If there is a glancing blow from the CME observed after the M2
event in AR 12282 late on February 9, there will be a chance of active intervals on
February 13.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejection (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay
where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary
provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots
observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not
numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers
in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF
numbers.

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC)
sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO
international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current
month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are
available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC
day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.