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The acoustics here are wild. Can you hear the Ekos? (34-26-19-11-10) - Macleans.ca

Why do I think that things will get worse for the Libs? They’ve lost momentum. Contrary to what Andrew Coyne thinks, I think the Dion interview will be devastating for the Libs going forward. Here’s why:

1. Nanos said on CPAC tonight that Dion’s competence index went down as did his leadership numbers and that this is probably attributable to the botched interview.

2. More importantly, the interview completely undermines the credibility of Liberal attacks on the Conservative’s supposed lack of action on the economy.

It does three things which are devastating to Dion on the eve of an election:

1. It shows his weakness on economic issues, not his strong suit to begin with;

2. It show his perceived weakness on leadership because he’s shown badly fumbling the question on the key issue of the campaign;

3. It’s a momentum changer on the economy question, the key question on which the election hinges. Dion’s gone from offence to defence. Indeed, he’ll be impotent and not credible when he henceforth attacks Harper on this issue.

Ok, so the Cons get another Minority, Dion gets the boot in December or if he has any sanity resigns the leadership immediately, the Liberals are plunged into another yearlong leadership contest during which Harper has free reign.

Because of Dion’s low level of actual support in the party, it’s unlikely he would have survived a leadership review without a win or severe weakening of the Cons.

Jarrid
“Why do I think that things will get worse for the Libs? They’ve lost momentum. Contrary to what Andrew Coyne thinks, I think the Dion interview will be devastating for the Libs going forward. Here’s why:”

Look, dude, stop dreaming about a Harper majority, it’s just not gonna happen this time around. The spread is too small between the Libs and Cons. The interview is not as big a deal as people think.

Harper might get some management credentials for Flaherty being at the G7 meeting. That might give him an extra boost. Maybe.

And I suspect at least half of that 10% of “Green” supporters will panic at the last second and realize that Dion is their last chance for years of pushing ANY sort of environmental agenda through the government, so they just might vote for him.

Things look better for the Tories in the Segma poll, which gives them an 11 point margin nationally (far too much attention has been placed on the 40% number, and far too little on what really matters – regional margins).

Uhh anyone notice the people obviously skewing the data… Cons thinking the Greens will likely win? NDP saying the Bloc will win? It’s nice to think that they have a hypothetical chance but does anyone actually believe that?

There really is a growing consistency with these polls. Segma has the totals as follows:

Conservatives 34.6
Liberals 23
NDP 20.5
Greens 10

We’re back to a fight for second.

Pete, I never mentioned majority, but if the Conservatives increase a few more points, that becomes a possibility with the split vote on the left. It cannot be ruled out even though it is not in the cards with these numbers for sure.

What will be the story on Tuesday night? The absolutely historic Liberal debacle. Remember not so long ago, people talked about Turner’s 28.02 number in 1984 to be the absolute Liberal floor? The Libs would be happy to get that this election. Note that this Segma poll has the Liberals only 2 and a half points ahead of the NDP. The NDP vote is much more concentrated than the Liberal votes.

One thing has become clear. This is now a race for second place. I think we can agree on that.

TURNOUT. That’s what this election will be all about. It’s why Quadra and Outremont were each almost 15-20 points worse for the Liberals than folks were anticipating.

It’s what happens when you have a leader folks are just waiting to boot, so you can get someone better.

Mark my words. The polls are undercounting CPC support by at least 5 points (actually the ratio is derived by the fact that they’re OVERcounting all those 18-25 year olds who say they’re voting Liberal but will stay on the couch, eat Doritos, and listen to their Ipods instead of walking half a mile to the polls).

Nanos’ use of cell phones is exacerbating this problem, and this year (like Zogby in the US who predicted the previous year, was considered the Oracle, then blew the next year big time) Nanos will be way off.

It WILL be a CPC majority. Their drop in Que is being overstated such that they will PICK UP seats there (though not massive numbers).

They will take all but a few core seats in Toronto (and in the north where the NDP will gain a couple from the Libs).

People tend to forget that the election is next Tuesday! People have not yet voted! Nobody Won! Polls are polls and quite frankly one way or the other there are just tooo many of them. It’s crazy it’s a few polls every day. We should talk about the real stuff but the polls take all the place. People should not be influenced by them!

Come Tuesday Dion and Harper’s respective political careers will diverge drastically. On Tuesday Dion will be resigning as leader of the Liberals and Harper will be governing. When you lead a party to a debacle, you resign. When you win an election, you are elected Prime Minister.

BC, I know misery likes company, but the Liberals will be alone crying in their beer on Tuesday night. Even Nanos tonight on CPAC looked subdued.

WTF is the fuss all about? He asked to clarify then repeat a question. The biggest news for me was the absurd portentous lead-in from the newscaster, like this was something we HAD TO SEE WITH OUR OWN EYES.

Oh and per Duceppe’s comments about it, the fact that this is being seen as anti-French or English-biased is going to play right into the Quebec identity politics and help Dion further with a sympathy vote in Quebec.

Take two more points from the Conservatives in Quebec and give them to the Liberals. Go on. Do it.

Shawn, there’s not much sympathy for Dion either within or without the Liberal Party.

He’s been attacking Harper since the debate about Harper’s handling of the market crisis. He’s asked what he would do if he was in Harper’s shoes and he HAS NO ANSWER. His first stab at the question consists of mixing up his own so-called plans, one to deal with the economy and the other one about resolving child poverty forever or some such thing. One was the 30 day plan the other a 50 day plan. About the only thing distinguishing them are the number of days because they’re nothing more than VAPID PLANS TO HAVE A PLAN. There’s no actual plan. Are we surprised he messed it all up?

The upshot: he will damage his credibility every time he dares to attack Harper’s handling of the economy because everyone will harken back to his head-shaking interview.

“Why do I think that things will get worse for the Libs? They’ve lost momentum. Contrary to what Andrew Coyne thinks, I think the Dion interview will be devastating for the Libs going forward. Here’s why:”

I’m sorry, but regardless of your political affiliation you have to have a very, very low opinion of the Canadian people to think that an interview clip like that will be “devastating.” Will they take a hit from it? Possibly, probably. But “devastating?” Let’s give Canadians more credit than that.

why did the media tell us seemingly irrelevant things (five year old speeches, private jokes) were really, really important after all?

It was REVEALING we were told.

You see, we can’t always just look to what they’re telling us, the media has to go ‘behind the scenes’.

Except if its Dion.

And except if it goes to the heart of his ability to be our leader.

And except if its on his ability to communicate the most important subject of the day.

And except if its on a subject Dion has been hammering Harper on all week and which he was asked to juxtapose what he would do differently – literally THE question of any election – how he’d be different.

THEN, we don’t want it “revealed”. In fact, then we fight like heck to have it stay safely unknown, and protest it coming to light.

John D, I don’t mean that people will actually change their vote because of Dion’s ill-fated interview exchange. What I mean is that it is a momentum changer. Post interview clip, Dion can no longer attack the Conservatives so-called inaction on the economy without reminding people of his own lack of any answers. It’s put the Libs on the defensive in the dying days of the campaign.

Even a subdued Mr. Nanos stated the interview may have been responsible for Dion’s tanking already low leadership index figures.

I’ll also note that we’re all still talking about this 2 precious days later. The focus is back on Mr. Dion, and that’s not a good thing for the Libs. Need I remind Blog Central readers that the NDP are nipping at their heels as we speak.

It appears that Barbara Yaffe, a left-wing columnist writing for The Vancouver Sun, concurs with my assessment. Again, to repeat, Ms. Yaffe’s opinions are based on the usual left-lib assumptions. But here’s her take on THE INTERVIEW in today’s Sun:

“In a campaign that has been buffeted by the unexpected, Tuesday night’s botched TV interview with Stephane Dion seemed not out of place.

Things were going wonderfully for Liberals, climbing in the polls to the point that folks were starting to muse about a possible Grit minority — when Dion, during a media moment, was caught looking like a complete doofus.”

Was it fair for CTV to air the interview? Yes admits the Harper hating Ms. Yaffe. Here’s what she says:

“First, let’s be clear: CTV was on solid footing in a decision to air the segment which showed Dion in a mental meltdown as he attempted to answer a simple question about how he’d handle the current economic crisis were he PM.”

Case closed I’d say.

P.S. – in order to save Mr. Wells the effort, it appears Ms. Yaffe got the day of the interview wrong. It was Thursday, not Tuesday, although it does seem like it’s been more than 48 hours.

I don’t get it. You rant on and on ad finitum about media bias against CPoC–yet a left-leaning (according to you) highly regarded newspaper, the Globe and Mail, endorsed Mr. Harper. I’ll admit, they damned him with faint praise, but they did endorse him.

How much does Harper pay you to lurk here and post political nonsense on every comment board?

In his little titles over his graph above “Leadership indicators” in yesterday’s Nanoa poll, we read Nanos’ spin of his own numbers “Harper sliding, leading Layton by only 13 points”. Nanos’ numbers indeed showed Harper was down by 4. Does anyone want to hazard a guess at what were happening to Dion’s numbers in the meantime? Drumroll please….:

Dion’s numbers were down by 9. The title should have said “Dion tanking”.

The CPCs faint hope of retaining seats in Quebec went out the window with Harper’s cheap attack on Dion over the interview (the question was incomprehensible). Bernier and Verner will be the only two Cons returned from Quebec so the majority is lost. And Harper is faced with a terrific headache in forming a Cabinet.

Nobody dissecting these polls seems to be taking into account the concentration of CPC support in Alberta and Sask.

Are there not riding-specific polls of the most interesting races, Avalon, Central Nova, Trinity Spadina, Wascana etc.? If Politics is your entertainment, Tuesday’s show will be a good one.

Jwl, let’s make this more meta. I’ll whine about you whining about me whining about the boring Conservative insistence of repeating their points about 20 times per thread.

I don’t whine about polls. I mainly think Harper doesn’t deserve to govern, and I take issue with basically one ‘journalist’ for being a grade-A douche. That being the Duff-ster, and all his ancilliary rolls, chins, and roll-fungus.

that on the day after Maclean’s wins its fight for freedom of expression,

Paul Wells threatens to shut down comments.

Paul, the days of news being “told” to us, free of feedback, scrutiny, and interaction from its recipients are gone forever.

I’d also like to again point out that I have never engaged in invective, namecalling, or anything of the sort. No, the concerns about my comments have been about the CONTENT. What I’m saying, not how I’m saying it. Stopping this type of commenting is the heart of matter isn’t it.

I do not believe Nanos “shills for the Liberals” and believe his numbers do not reflect partisan bias. Nevertheless, I was startled to listen to a Nanos employee at a golf tournament I attended in Gatineau in late August go on and on about how he hates the Conservatives and wants to see anyone but Harper win. Nanos should remind his employees to take more care when speaking in public.

kody–
I’ll give you about 10 seconds to gather yourself together and read Paul’s “threat” again…three days…in three days it’ll be….Tuesday…do we need to blog about polls, kody, after we have an actual result?
Looks like you made a misstep, but I’m sure it was a simple misunderstanding and you can be forgiven it in the spirit of ‘to err is human’.

Or we can get all hyper and call it a disaster and perhaps even question your very abilitiy to post on this blog in the first place.

Just as Harper’s ridiculously flippant,”I see now as a great time to buy stocks..” bit with Mansbridge didn’t move his numbers much, neither will this Halifax interview with Dion. Canadians are far less shallow than that, kody (yourself possibly notwithstanding).

Two Cents said,
“Nevertheless, I was startled to listen to a Nanos employee at a golf tournament I attended in Gatineau in late August go on and on about how he hates the Conservatives and wants to see anyone but Harper win. Nanos.”

Why would a pollster liking the Liberals translate into their employing a methodology that makes it look like the Liberals are doing better? I ask because people don’t vote for a party because it is winning, parties are winning because people vote for them. Indeed, large poll leads can create backlash – for instance when Neil Kinnock acted like he had the election in the bag in 1992, there was a last minute swing against him.

Harper hasn’t exactly benefited from good poll numbers either. When you are number 1, you become a target – if Harper had been polling at 35%, you can bet a lot of more of Jack’s debate performance would be attacking the Liberals. Moreover, many Canadians vote strategically against the Conservatives, and nothing sets of their alarm bells like the words: Conservative majority.

Nanos has been the closest pollster to the actual results in the last two elections – I do think that is partly a matter of luck, but it also probably reflects that they have a pretty unbiased method, since they get good results with small sample sizes (by contrast, Strategic Counsel was predicting a huge Harper romp with a massive sample size, and… they were wrong).

Mr. Wells,

I understand if you don’t like these forums – there is a large tendency for people to recite talking points, in order to frame particular issues. I don’t think it works since most of the readers here are high information voters unlikely to be swayed by robo-posters.

Nonetheless, there is some good stuff on here, so I do hope you don’t axe the comments. Canada’s main political forums are hyper-partisan (rabble, freedominion), while this place isn’t. Plus, in a couple days you’ll be down to a few sane posters, with the election gone and past.

Closing comments….their choice. Of course it comes down to moderation which Macleasn may not be prepared to do given the size of it blog set…thats an awful big blogroll you have, or are you just happy to see me…..

I know people get passionate about politics, spin is to be expected, but the dissing, con bots, leftards etc are really unecessary and detract from the comment and the commentator.

Nothing wrong with a good put down…emphasis on good…..but they are harder to come by than commentators imagine. Better to avoid them if possible.

I think Macleans would lose something if comments were removed, I know I would read the blogs less often. It becomes less interesting because it is impossible for Wells, Coyne, O’Malley and Potter et al to know everything, I am sure they find it hard to even capture half the stuff they find interesting. Commentators should add to that…..and it being Macleans in a sardonic and ironic way (sorry couldnt resist)

Your choice on the comments, to both sides….provacative is ok, insulting and ad hominen and conspiratorial is generally not.

I look forward to the mondo Wells essay, last one was very good. Arent you getting tired of churning these out every 2 years?

JK, I listened to most of the Laroque.Lapierre interview. Harper’s French is strong in it, as it usually is. He used one wrong word, like a word that had no place in the sentence he was saying, but it was obvious what he meant to say. Apart from that, no serious problems.

Glenn Norton, “Even Ontario cannot bring itself to put the Liberals in.” So do you agree, then, that the Conservative government has been less than fair with the Province of Ontario? We don’t have the amount of seats in the House of Commons we should–the only province or territory where representation by population, skewed for small provinces, doesn’t apply. We don’t get the same benefit to employment insurance–yet our premiums are not discounted. We don’t get the per capita amount for health care that every other province gets. And we GIVE 20 billion for equalization on top of all of that.

“JK, I listened to most of the Laroque.Lapierre interview. Harper’s French is strong in it, as it usually is. He used one wrong word, like a word that had no place in the sentence he was saying, but it was obvious what he meant to say. Apart from that, no serious problems.”

Thank-you very much Mr.Wells…

I was a hater of french when I was young(I am only 28)Now I wish I was not such a moron during my french classes……

Sorry but wait till you start to get deranged emails from poeple who disagree with you.

I’ve been posting on these blogs for some months and no one has sent me deranged email, and I’m highly googleable. Perhaps because irritating people is not my hobby.

I used to think the same way intill a couple of nuts started F’n with my buisness and family.

Um, if you were threatened you might consider talking to the police. If not, may I recommend gmail? Fantastic filter system.

This is the internet it is just not that smart to be putting your name out there..

This is also a democracy and if you aren’t willing to back up your opinions with your own self (or actually just your name), either you don’t deserve your opinions or they don’t deserve you.

Our Maclean’s hosts are highly prominent people who put their bylines not only on their columns but on every post. It might help civility if more than a handful of people here had the courage to do the same.

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