New poll shows Romney ahead in … Pennsylvania? Update: GOP closing early voter gap in Ohio; Update: Romney leads by four in Susquehanna poll of PA

posted at 5:19 pm on October 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Is it worth writing about a poll that appeared suddenly on Twitter, rocked the world of every last conservative who saw it, then was quickly and mysteriously deleted by the pollster? What if the DNC’s communications director screencapped it and started whining about it before he’d even seen the crosstabs? Let’s put it this way: There may or may not be a poll coming soon from Susquehanna showing Romney up 49/45 on The One in the Democratic stronghold of Pennsylvania. Maybe it won’t be published. Maybe it was yanked back because they spotted a flaw in the data at the last second. If it is published, maybe Jay Cost is right that skepticism is in order; Susquehanna’s numbers do tend to tilt Republican according to Sean Trende, although Guy Benson had a nice post about the firm’s track record a week ago. Needless to say, if Romney really does have a lead in Pennsylvania, then I’m thinking the hull has been breached on the good ship Hopenchange and there’s no patching it. We’ll need multiple polls from the state to know if there’s been any tidal shift, but keep an eye out for Susquehanna. If it’s legit, it’s a big one.

Since I can’t give you that right now, how about a pair of new polls showing Romney ahead in … Ohio and Colorado (Update: Old news. See below.):

Romney takes 48 percent support in Ohio, edging President Obama at 47, in the new poll conducted by American Research Group (ARG). It’s the latest survey to show Romney erasing the gender gap. He now trails Obama only 48 to 45 among female voters in the Buckeye State…

And in Colorado, likely voters went for Romney 50 to 46 over Obama, in ARG’s poll. Romney soundly outpaced Obama among female voters in the state, taking 51 percent support against Obama at 45…

Ohio and Colorado are two of the 12 states President Bush won in 2004 that Obama took in 2008. These 12 battleground states will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

Go back to the electoral vote map at RCP that I linked in the last post. If it’s true that Florida is drifting away from the Democrats and Romney comes through in Ohio and Colorado, then he’s at 262 with a slew of swing states available to put him over the top. Virginia alone could do it. So could Wisconsin. And so, of course, could Pennsylvania, although if he wins PA then we’re staring at a Republican landslide, not a 270-268 win.

That’s the good news. The bad news? It seems increasingly likely that we’re going to lose as our VP a guy who thinks American servicemen are serving in Iraq and Iran. Some lean blog content days ahead next year without Joe, my friends.

Update: Turns out that Ohio/Colorado poll news from The Hill was published on October 9, not today. Drat. Note to self: Always check the dates on stories you’ve arrived at from links on Twitter. Apologies for the bad info. Obama’s bounced back a bit in Ohio since that ARG poll but there have been other polls in Colorado since then showing Romney ahead — barely. He’s up two-tenths of a point in the RCP average.

Susquehanna’s automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

“Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.”

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Note that last part. Remember at the debate when O said it’s time for a new assault-weapons ban? The NRA will make sure those western Pennsylvania centrist Democrats know all about it.

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Anything, anything at all, out of the ordinary at this point, be it domestic or foreign, will be immediately suspect, and challenged, especially after all the obfuscation about Benghazi….among other things.

Back in the day, a Newsweek, rolled up tightly, very tightly, made an excellent baton…actually a handy deadly weapon easily disposed of and not likely to be suspect, easily passed through security everywhere.

But, she never said that she could see Russia from her house…although you would be SHOCKED by the number of Progs who have screamed themselves into fits with me when I have shown them the truth. It usually boils down to: Well, show me where she DIDN’T say it!

This is probably what the Dem internal polls were showing that freaked them out so bad! The other Swing States were never thought to be bellwethers, but Pa., Mi., and Wisconsin, were never supposed to be in play! If this poll can be verified and not an outlier, it would be a sign of the beginning of the end of the Obama Regime! That being said, Romney better get ready for some real ugly thug tactics from the chicago thug machine! Now is when you can guarantee some funky business on election day! The amount of counties that will have more voters than residents is going up by the minute, as the Obama Campaign preps for the post election court fight. The overseas votes will be counted by a Soros owned company. That makes those totals, immediately suspect!
Update on:How to take on the Obama Enemy media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

Back in the day, a Newsweek, rolled up tightly, very tightly, made an excellent baton…actually a handy deadly weapon easily disposed of and not likely to be suspect, easily passed through security everywhere.

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Back in the Day… A lot of slick magazines were extremely useful in that manner. Penthouse worked really well, since nobody would ever assume that you were carrying a rolled up Penthouse as a weapon… ;)

Ohio and Colorado are going to be battles to the end, no poll will ever make me think otherwise. If Romney some how pulls out Pennsylvania (which has wrongfully been labeled as a swing state the last few elections) then that means he will probably win in Wisconsin, N.H., and even Michigan as well. In other words, it would be part of a landslide win for Romney.

President Obama, during the taping of The Daily Show, discussed the Benghazi terrorist attack that claimed the lives of the U.S. Ambassador to Libya and three other Americans.

“Here’s what I’ll say. When four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal. We’re going to fix it,” Obama said per pool. “The government is a big operation and [at] any given time something screws up,” he also said, saying that he believes “you find out what’s broken and you fix it.”

From “bump in the road” to “not optimal”, this ain’t going to end well for Obama with Monday’s debate but hours away.

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

It’s the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State….

Susquehanna’s automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Gumby, by the way, this is how a shift in the electoral landscape starts. First a few polls deemed outliers show up, and then they all move as you move from Denial, to Anger, to Bargaining, to…well, you get the idea.

Pretty close to what I’m thinking. I want to believe Mitt and Paul have it in the bag, but I just can’t shake this horrible feeling that Chicago has something pretty damn ugly up its collective sleeve. I just can’t imagine Axelrod, Plouffe, Valerie and Soros taking defeat quietly.