Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Staunton, February 8 – Many commentators
have suggested that Vladimir Putin’s latest round of installing new governors
in place of old reflects concern about economic problems, a desire to have
technocrats rather than politicians in these positions, and/or preparation the
2018 presidential elections.

All those things matter, Moscow
analyst Andrey Kolyadin argues; but Putin’s replacement of Victor Basargin in
Perm and Vyacheslave Nagovitsin suggest that more is at work, including Kremlin
nervousness about the possibility of the intensification of ethnic conflicts in
the regions (iarex.ru/articles/53597.html).

Both of the men pushed out, he
notes, are “experienced economic administrators. The situation with the development
of industry, construction and agriculture” in both their regions has been “completely
possibility. Enterprises are working. Wages are being paid on time. And
investment is growing.”

But “from the political point of
view, many errors have been made,” Kolyadin continues. “Inter-ethnic conflicts
and wars are continuing. And the heads of these territories aren’t proving able
to curb ‘the living creativity of the masses,’” something that could reduce
participation in the presidential elections.

In the case of Nagovitsyn, Putin has
appointed a young individual “from Buryatia who has work experience in key
federal posts. Whether he will be able to make his region better is something
that only time will tell.”But it is
clear that he faces many challenges in that restive republic, and his being an
ethnic Buryat may help. (Nagovitsyn wasn’t.)

If Kolyadin is right that the
Kremlin is worried about ethnic clashes, at least in Buryatia, the new
appointment is very much a two-edged sword from Moscow’s point of view. On the
one hand, his Buryat background will win him some support at least initially.
But on the other, some Buryats may conclude that their protests forced Moscow’s
hand – and decide to push for more.

The
ethnic affairs portal stressed that the new man had been discussed as a
possible replacement for Nagovitsyn for some time, given that he is
simultaneously an ethnic Buryat and a Moscow official, and added that “experts
note that the new administrator will have to take into consideration the
interests of various groups of the population, including nationalities.”

In
commenting on Tsydenov’s appointment, Vladimir Borsobin of “Komsomolskaya Pravda”
suggested that the new republic head’s ethnicity and transportation expertise
may be just what is needed in a republic that has had many problems in recent
years under the ethnic Russian Nagovitsyn (http://www.kp.ru/daily/26636/3659151/).

The republic’s ethnic problems and
its transportation problems are closely interlinked, Borsobin says. Its rail network
simply doesn’t connect into the broader Russian ones and for some reason, air
tickets in Ulan Ude are twice as expensive as those in Irkutsk to the same
destinations. Neither of those situations is acceptable. Perhaps Tsydenov will
correct them.