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A lot of this will depend on how well-organized and in-synch with each other the Saki faction voters are.

If the Saki faction voters don't attempt anything like sniping, or clear breaks to stronger Saki girls in Saki vs. Saki vs. non-Saki matches, then yeah, the sheer numbers of the Saki faction could drop nastily after a round or two.

OTOH, if they play their cards right, they're pretty much unbeatable. Seriously, they are. With this many "cards" on "the field of battle", they have so many different strategic options that it's amazing.

Whether or not a Saki girl wins it all will probably depend on how good a job Saki faction voters do of "playing" J-SaiMoe. And how many Saki girls make it to the quarterfinals will similarly depend on how well they "play" J-SaiMoe.

I'll eat cardboard though if a Saki character wins. I'm betting on double semifinals then shutout for the finals.

I'm not sure why the idea of a Saki girl winning it all shocks you.

Toki is legitimately strong. She can probably "legit beat" almost any other girl in this competition. The few she perhaps can't... Well, that's where sniping could come into play.

Like I wrote before, this will probably come down to how well the Saki faction voters "play" J-SaiMoe. If they don't "play" it at all, and just vote with their heart round after round after round, then yeah, Saki probably won't win it all.

But if they make a conscientious and well-organized effort to snipe the strongest non-Saki girls whenever a good opportunity arises, and to consistently break to the strongest Saki girl in Saki vs. Saki vs. non-Saki matches, well... that could easily be the road to victory for the Saki faction.

To be fair if everyone would vote according to their heart these popularity contests would actually be so much better.

That would be pretty boring since we can just look at votes from one round and then instantly know who's going to win. Because saimoe is determined by votes, the strength of a particular character is pretty consistent, and without cheaters it just wouldn't be that much fun.

It's not really shocking but rather I just don't see it that they'll be winning it all. I mean overdoing it in the first prelims is almost never a good thing. The Haruhi faction was overwhelmingly strong in the prelims of 2006 but only Nagato managed to reach QFs (though technically that's just luck of the draw). HnG has been at it since 2007 and Nagi even went to the Finals twice yet they've never won anything. Hinagiku is almost always the bet each year to win and she always overperforms in the prelims but she always falls short. Mio was the favorite to win it Pre-2009 but lol she got sniped. Homura was gone by Round 1. Saki was the scariest in both 2009 and 2010 but no win.

I stress ALMOST though since there's a lot of exceptions to this. Biggest example is last year's Puella Magi blowout. 2008's a dark era cus everything played out ala ISML. The dolls and the White Devil will always be legends. The only way I see the Saki faction producing a winner is by being part of the exception and in line of what you said, I think it's only Toki who has that.

That would be pretty boring since we can just look at votes from one round and then instantly know who's going to win. Because saimoe is determined by votes, the strength of a particular character is pretty consistent, and without cheaters it just wouldn't be that much fun.

???

Just because someone voted for character A in the first round doesn't mean he would vote for her in the upcoming rounds as well.

There are always exceptions and absolutes in moe. While a character might hold a pattern of winning, they might run into that one character that is the exception for a large enough base of her following and then lose.