Hot spots, fault lines, and events that might have an impact on global risk.

Analysis by Eurasia Group

October 2 2006: 12:58 PM EDT

(Fortune Magazine) -- 1. Ecuador

Radical-leftist candidate Rafael Correa could grab second place in the Oct. 15 presidential election. Though it's likely he'll lose to centrist Leon Roldos in a second-round runoff,
he'll push the next government's agenda to the left.

2. Nigeria

A feud between President Olusegun Obasanjo and his archrival, Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is facing as-yet-unproven corruption charges, could stall this fall's primaries and
trigger a meltdown in the oil-rich nation.

3. Russia

The expected merger of Russia's two largest aluminum firms, Rusal and Sual, solidifies control of a vital sector by a Kremlin-friendly oligarch and will help the merged company gain
access to international markets.

4. Bahrain

Tensions are likely to rise before December parliamentary elections as the Shia opposition accuses the Sunni-dominated government of racing to naturalize Sunni immigrants to undercut
the Shia majority.

5. Pakistan

Despite surviving a no-confidence vote, the Pakistani government faces more unified Baluchi opposition as a result of the killing of senior Baluchi nationalist Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti
by Pakistani forces.

6. Japan

Fears of a resurgence of Japanese hypernationalism under new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are misplaced, and there is little chance that chilly relations with China and South Korea will
worsen in coming months.