Monthly Archives: November 2016

The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the tape continues to shock, with the Trump rally, after the fact, looking strikingly similar to the BREXIT rally; the market provides every indication that one outcome is good, the other outcome bad, it gets the bad outcome, and not only fails to sell off, but rallies on it! Enough to generate plenty of Aflac goose head shakes. Why did the market change its mind on Trump? Firstly, a Trump victory was never really “bad” it was just unfathomable, and Trump’s campaign rhetoric was at times, preposterously market unfriendly (forcing production in the US, undoing global trade). Upon further consideration, the...

In shocking, inexplicable, unfathomable, polarizing, surreal fashion, Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, by winning the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with all of the states expected to lean his way. Stocks, currencies, and commodity markets are in disarray. The S&P 500 futures sank approximately 100 points (~5%) around midnight, with a very strong snap-back ever since it became clear Trump would win (by midnight), and subsequently did win (at 2:30am). As of 5:00am the market is only down 1.5%. Initial thoughts: FED policy uncertainty is the largest actual negative. Yellen, Brainard, and crew, are likely “fired” in 2017. The market will need to come to terms with a new, and potentially much more hawkish, Fed Chair. The Yellen Fed may move to the...