Initial unemployment insurance claims rose last week to 418,000
versus a revised 408,000 during the week prior, initially reported as
405,000. The Labor Department indicated that the latest figure reflected
1,750 initial claims due to the government shutdown in Minnesota.
Consensus expectations had been for 400,000 initial claims. The four-week
moving average fell to 421,250. During the last ten years there has been a
77% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm
payrolls.

The latest claims figure covers the survey week for July nonfarm
payrolls. Claims fell 11,000 (-2.6%) from the June period. During the last
ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and
the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 3.698M, the low
end of the recent range. The insured unemployment rate slipped to
2.9%. These claimants, however, were only about half of the total
number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance. Regular
extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual
states, fell to 543,712 during the week ending July 2 (the latest figure
available), the lowest level in nearly a year. A companion program,
Emergency Unemployment Compensation, referred to as EUC 2008, saw 3.154M
beneficiaries (-10.1% y/y) in the July 2nd week.

A grand total of all claimants for unemployment insurance
includes extended and emergency programs and specialized programs covering
recently discharged veterans, federal employees and those in state-run
"work share" programs. All together, during the July 2nd week,
these recipients fell to 7.325M, down 13.5% y/y. We calculate a broader
insured unemployment rate by taking this grand total as a percent of
covered employment. The latest rate slipped to 4.8%. It peaked at 9.3% on
January 2, 2010.

Two other programs, disaster unemployment assistance (DUA) and trade
readjustment allowance (TRA), are reported through a different Labor
Department channel. Claimants were the lowest since early-2009. All of
these individual program data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's
WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are
summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including
the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the
extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency
program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and
various regional divisions. Action Economics estimates are in AS1REPNA.

This morning's testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be
found here here.

Are Underemployed Graduates Displacing Nongraduates? from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.