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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT AUG 21 1999
CINDYS CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
BUT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE STILL NOT VERY WELL DEFINED. DVORAK T-
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY. NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING IS
STILL IMPACTING THE STORM...BUT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS WEB SITE INDICATE WEAKER SHEAR AHEAD. CINDY IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY
OF 30W...WHICH IS PROBABLY CAUSING THE SLOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
WESTWARD MOTION OF CINDY. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THIS
WEAKNESS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST RIDGE AT 500 MB ORIENTED NORTH OF CINDY IN 2-3
DAYS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT OFFICAL FORECAST.
THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.
PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.7N 29.2W 50 KTS
12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.8N 30.8W 55 KTS
24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 33.0W 60 KTS
36HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 35.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 38.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 42.5W 70 KTS
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