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Looking for broad inflation trends

23 May 2018, 08:00 | Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

The data calendar is not very exciting – today is more about events. Assorted PMI business sentiment opinion polls are due, and will doubtless get more attention than they deserve. The UK's consumer price and retail price inflation figures are due. These will show the conflicting effects of a fading currency impact and higher oil prices.

Central banks are supposed to look through one-off effects and focus on broad changes in price trends. In Turkey, the accelerated drop in the value of the currency is threatening broad price trends. President Erdogan's original economic views are not encouraging capital inflows at the moment.

US President Trump sees a "substantial" chance that the proposed summit with North Korean President Kim will not take place. Markets are unlikely to care too much. Investors tend to ignore extreme tail risks in geopolitics, and anything other than an extreme risk is unlikely to be very market relevant.

The minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting are due. What might matter is how the Fed could react to any signs of overheating in the US economy. If the Fed failed to react to an overheating, US recession risks would rise for 2019.