Weather and Traffic

Colorado State University hurricane experts Philip Klotzbach and William Gray upped their prediction for the 2010 season for the third time in a new forecast issued today.

In their June 2 report, the team predicts 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes this year. On April 7, they forecast 15, 8 and 4, respectively.

“We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Nino to currently-observed neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” Klotzbach and Gray said.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season.”

They estimated that the chance of a landfalling major hurricane on the U.S. East Coast – including the Florida peninsula – is now 51 percent, compared with an average over the last century of 31 percent.

The chance of a major storm hitting the Gulf Coast – including the Florida Panhandle – is 50 percent, compared to the century average of 30 percent.

Their new prediction for 2010 is 195 percent of the long-term average.

The factors behind the upgraded forecast reflect previous assessments by other private and government meteorologists.

El Nino conditions have already nearly evaporated in the Pacific, and a weak La Nina (cooler than normal Pacific waters) is expected. This should further reduce wind shear, the upper level atmospheric flows that disrupt storm formation.

Also, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are at near-record levels – and warm water fuels strong hurricanes.

“Another factor in our forecast increase is the weaker-than-normal Azores High that prevailed during April-May,” the forecasters said. “Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.”

Klotzbach and Gray also addressed the impact of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on the hurricane season, saying that the presence of the oil will have no effect on storm formation.