GameNight: USC vs California

The Pac-10 has been one of
the nation’s more chaotic conferences this season, with 5 teams within a
game of the lead as the halfway mark nears. Two of these teams will meet in
Los Angeles, when #46 Southern California (14-6, 5-3) hosts #38
California (16-5, 5-3). If you need further evidence of how chaotic the
conference has been, both of these teams have beaten nationally ranked
Arizona St. and lost to historical bottom-dwellers Oregon St.

Cal
started the season strongly, finishing the non-conference season 11-2, and
opening 4-0 in Pac-10 play, including wins over Arizona St. and Washington.
In the last two weeks, though, the Bears’ form has gone south, seeing them
lose three out of four, including at home to the Beavers. USC had a
disappointing start to the season, considering they were Top 25 ranked in
the preseason polls. The Trojans finished fourth in Puerto Rico after losing
to Seton Hall in their opener, but later came just a single point short of
upsetting the Sooners in Norman. Losses to Oregon St. and UCLA left USC at
10-5, but wins over Arizona St. and Stanford have gotten its season back on
track.

Cal has put together one
of the conference’s better offenses, anchored by their spectacular
three-point shooting. The Bears hit nearly 48% of their three-point
attempts; the second-best team in the country hits less than 42%. No team
has finished a season shooting this high a percentage since 1988; since
2004, no team has cracked 44% on the year. So much for that longer
three-point line, eh? What allows Cal to keep this lofty percentage is smart
shot selection, as it attempts 75% of its shots from inside, where it is
decent, but not great. The Bears also take care of the ball, committing few
turnovers, but they are poor offensive rebounders. Tim Floyd’s USC teams
always seem to present stalwart defenses, and this year is no different. The
Trojans don’t defend the outside shot that well, which could be a big
problem in this game, but they hold opponents well inside, and are good on
the defensive glass.

About the only thing USC’s
offense has in common with Cal’s’ is that neither takes many three-point
shots – beyond that, the two are basically mirror opposites. The Trojans
shoot poorly from outside, but hit over 50% of two-pointers, and struggle
with turnovers, but are a major force on the offensive glass. They aren’t a
bad offensive team, but the struggles on the perimeter mean that USC sits in
the bottom-half of the Pac-10 offensively. Cal’s recent poor form is in
large part due to their defensive struggles, particularly with stopping
shots. Over the season, the Bears have been average defenders, but in their
last four, opponents seem to be making shots at will. They don’t force many
turnovers, and while their rebounding is good, that doesn’t help when your
opponents miss so infrequently. The Bears suffer the ignominy of being in
the bottom 10% of the country in both steals and blocks, and will need to
pick up their defensive play to compete for a conference title.

Cal’s Jerome Randle is
quietly putting together one of the country’s most impressive seasons, and
is a deserving candidate for anyone’s national ‘Most Improved’ team. Last
year, Randle was a useful player, effective, but not particularly
impressive. This year, he’s become an elite Pac-10 guard, making over 50% of
his shots, including more than 45% from three, and sitting in the top 3 in
the conference in both points and assists. Randle has seen his shooting
percentages go way up as his role in the offense has increased, an uncommon
and impressive accomplishment. However, don’t think this team is all Randle;
the Bears have a number of quality players, including guard Patrick
Christopher, another excellent shooter who scores more than 15 a game.
Junior Theo Robertson is the Bear’s best scoring forward, and boasts the
best three-point percentage on the team, a ridiculous 57%. Jamal Boykins
leads the team in rebounding, and is an good inside scoring option, while
7-footer Jordan Wilkes is effective, if somewhat underwhelming, as the fifth
starter. Harper Kamp is a backup forward who does almost nothing
offensively, but is a good rebounder, and Jorge Gutierrez comes off the
bench to provide some solid play in the backcourt.

USC features a talented
group of four players that play the bulk of the team’s minutes, with a pair
of guards and a pair of forwards creating a well-balanced, effective unit.
Junior Daniel Hackett leads the team in assists and steals, and is an
effective outside shooter. Dwight Lewis is the second guard, he leads the
team in scoring, and is the team’s best three-point shooter, though he is
coming off an ankle sprain that caused him to miss a couple of games. Much
talked about freshman DeMar DeRozen seems to have settled in after an
inconsistent start, he’s an excellent athlete who hasn’t yet fully
transformed that into success on the court, a good scorer and rebounder who
has struggled with turnovers. Taj Gibson may be the team’s best player,
averaging a double-double and fifth in the nation in shot blocks. Gibson’s a
good scorer who knows to take his chances inside, and gets to the line very
well. Keith Wilkinson and Leonard Washington have shared the fifth starting
spot: Washington has been the more offensively efficient of the pair,
shooting over 55%. A number of other players have battled for time off the
bench, including Marcus Johnson, Donte Smith and Nikola Vucevic.

These two teams look closely matched, but with the Trojans hosting, and on a
run of good form, they should have enough to get the victory. Cal has the
ability to shoot itself to a win, but its defense hasn’t been good enough in
Pac-10 play so far, which could doom it to losing four out of five.

Winner: Southern California
Margin: 3-7

-- Evan Dorey's rankings are based on
Elo Ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple: all teams are assigned an
initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating
preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains
points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are
gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets
you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the
game (which is capped), and the game’s location. To take a look at Evan's
College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit
his website or
blog where he discusses the
rankings along with other statistical observations about big games and
interesting teams.