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Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Upheaval in Turkey: What Comes Next?

By: Stewart Brennan

World United News

A significant rift appears to have opened up between NATO
member Turkey and the United States over the July 15th 2016 failed
coup on the Erdogan government. The coup has not only sent shock waves
throughout Turkey but indeed throughout the global geopolitical arena leaving
many to wonder who staged it and what comes next. Was it Fethullah Gulen, the
US government, both Gulen and the US government, someone else or was it Erdogan himself?

One of the glaring suspects of who could possibly have
staged the Turkish coup is the American Government. If the American’s were
involved, then the question is, “Has Erdogan outlived his usefulness to the US
governments foreign policy”…or is there something else going on here?

Regardless of who staged the coup, its failure has given
Erdogan the one thing he has been seeking since he first came to office, and
that’s “Absolute Power”, which he is now using to purge all opposition against
him inside the country. At the moment, that makes Erdogan the sole beneficiary
of the coup…staged or failed coup, a dictator has risen.

Erdogan’s Purge in Turkey

Erdogan's political purge of those opposing him is not new and has been ongoing since before the coup was even staged. Anyone
or any group that opposed Erdogan before the coup was quickly arrested on a
myriad of trumped up charges…However, after the failed coup in Turkey, Erdogan quickly seized the opportunity to purge all his political rivals, especially those connected to his arch enemy Fethullah Gulen, citing that they
staged the coup against him.

US / Turkey relationship

Has the US / Turkey relationship changed? That all depends
on actions taken by the Turkish government going forward, but at the moment,
nothing has really changed except finger pointing and word jousts between
Turkish officials and the US government…most of which centers around Erdogan’s
political rival Fethullah Gulen and the Turkish governments demand for his
extradition from the US due to alleged involvement in the coup.

Of course, words are not something to go by, especially when
those words come from Erdogan who has a proven track record of lying, deceit
and switching sides to benefit his own cause…as for the US government, I can’t
remember a time that they told the truth or were honest about anything, so I
don’t expect any real information to come from their words…action however is
another story.

One thing remains clear, that the US military still occupies
Turkey and has a number of nuclear weapons stationed there…pointed at Russia.

Russia / Turkey Relations

Have Russia / Turkey relations changed? Well, since the
Turkish government shot down the Russian aircraft over Syria last year, Russian
Turkish relations had turned very sour, however, recently, relations between
the two countries have improved after Erdogan’s almost apology for shooting
down the Russian jet. But again, we are talking about words…words with a small
token of action by Turkey to give up the people who shot down the Russian plane
and killed the Russian pilot; People I might add, that Erdogan now claims were
associated with Fethullah Gulen and his alleged coup…

What we need to see, that proves Turkey is indeed a friend
of Russia, is real action, not just mere words…Action such as informing the US
& NATO to pack up their nuclear weapons and leave the country; action by
Turkey to close its border with Syria to stop all Turkish involvement in the
terrorist assault on the Syrian people. Only this type of action by Turkey will
convince me that Erdogan is a true friend of Russia.

Gulen the Convenient Excuse

It seems that Fethullah Gulen is Erdogan’s get out of jail
free card at the moment because anything that Erdogan has done illegally can
now be blamed on the alleged Gulen putch.

This leads me to believe that we are going to see and hear
Erdogan blame all the past terrorist associations of his government in Syria on
Gulen including the illegal oil trade Erdogan’s family were directly involved
with. Everything will now be conveniently blamed on Gulen, weather true or
not…this is why I believe Erdogan referred to Gulen in a speech as, “Gulen and
his “terrorists” being a “virus”.

Geopolitical Facts on the Ground

The glaring facts on the ground are that the US and its
coalition, which includes Turkey, are facing defeat in their war on Syria; an
ongoing defeat, which has dragged Turkey deeper into total chaos and ruin
despite their NATO status. Defeat in Syria spells enormous trouble for Turkish
President Erdogan if he remains in league with US terrorism in Syria.

Yet, the crafty and astonishingly resilient Erdogan seems to
have cast off his isolation with Russia by playing the one card he had left in
the geopolitical game, an apology to Russia for shooting down their military aircraft
over Syria, thus patching up Russia / Turkey relations…a gesture that also
benefits the Russians in the wider game of geopolitics and economic stability
of the region if "words" can be believed.

As for the Americans, defeat in Syria is a crushing blow
that threatens their global economic empire by virtue of losing control of the
oil transit routes from Eurasia & the Middle East to energy dependent Europe, a lifeline
that props up the American dollar so long as their puppet regimes sell their
energy in US dollars. The Independent energy producers such as Russia and Iran
have no interest in selling their energy in US dollars because in reality, the
US government has imposed a continuous economic war on them…so why should they sell in US dollars?

Considering that Middle East Oil has powered the US economy for
the last seven decades, and allowed the US to become a global economic empire,
I’d say that the potential loss of energy transit routes through Syria and
Turkey play a truly significant roll in the American empire’s decline.

All the Americans have left in this geopolitical game are
aggressive war and covert operation cards…cards that include staged uprisings,
regime changes, terrorist infiltration, and World War III…the US empire is on
the verge of economic collapse by their own hand and are truly desperate to hang on as the worlds only superpower. That makes them very dangerous. Therefore a loss
in Syria by the US and its allies will not go unchallenged, as the US government
will do anything to find its way back to controlling the region.

It is very feasible that a coup on Turkey’s leader Erdogan
was launched by the US and their Turkish connection in order to replace him
with someone more obedient to US dictates. If this is the case, then Erdogan has simply become an
unreliable problem for the US and outlived his usefulness, much the same way
Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein did in the 1990’s…

Is Turkey distancing itself from the US?

Although Turkey has been a US / NATO player and terrorist
supporter in Syria, that may no longer be the case as we see Turkey begin to
back away from regime change in Syria while the US & EU ramp up their
diplomatic sparring against their ally and NATO partner…however, action speaks
louder than words, so again we are all waiting to see what becomes of this trend.

However, there are some interesting developments happening
in Turkey at the moment, as the US military at the Incirlik airbase, has become
the focus of growing unrest in the country to toss the Americans out due to the
role it is alleged to have had in the Turkish coup.

The fact is, that no matter what the US wants, the Erdogan
Government in Turkey has the upper hand in deciding the future of those bases
which I’m sure will not be removed overnight. They will however, become a
source of irritation and hostile backlash by an increasingly “anti-US” Turkish
population, should the Americans refuse to leave if told to.

Turkey’s NATO status must certainly hinge on following US
Military dictates to the letter regarding US foreign policy, a US foreign
policy that no longer benefits the Erdogan regime due to the American’s close
association to the Kurds in Syria.

The American Plan “B” in Syria

Erdogan knows only too well how the Americans work with
covert operations against regimes they want removed from power. Erdogan's first hand experience over the last five years with the US terrorist operation
against the Syrian government should have taught him something…so Erdogan could be on fragile ground with a US backed regime change coup...And now that the US is working closely with the Kurds,
Erdogan had not only been isolated from Russia (before the apology), but if true, he became a
redundant part of the long term US plan…The US arming the Kurds may have given Erdogan a dose of
reality with visions of regime change dancing in his head. Therefore, once Erdogan puts
his internal house in its new order, we should expect a shift in Turkey’s
actions regarding his position in Syria…that is, if Erdogan has indeed seen the
errors of his way…or if indeed the Americans were involved with the coup.

I don’t expect Erdogan will leave NATO as it serves him as a
geopolitical safety tool against Russia…Neither will the US throw Turkey out of
NATO due to the geopolitical and strategic importance to them...Although the US
is very good at arming terrorists to overthrow governments as we have seen
throughout the world.

Erdogan Takes Control

The Coup has given Erdogan the means to purge all of his
opponents, as well as ridding himself of foreign interference by placing theTurkish Military under government control. No small feat, but a necessary one
if Turkey is to become politically independent from foreign interests or to seize total control of the country…this now
seems to be the case.

So which way will Turkey go? The logical answer is quite
simple…”Follow the Money”. The Eurasian deal is a much safer way for Erdogan to
go since the Syrian peoples victory over western terrorism has left Erdogan
Isolated with an unreliable American partner who is in full operation of their
Plan “B” with their arming of the Kurds for the goal of creating an independent
Kurdish state along the Turkish border. Something of a nightmare for Erdogan as American aid (weapons) could spill into Kurdish hands in Turkey as well…

Added to Erdogan’s dilemma is that EU membership is no longer on
the table, while US dictatorial occupation is ripping Turkey apart by
plunging it into debt & turmoil...this should make for an easy decision on Erdogan’s
part to push away from the US, one would think.

So, a temporary, humbling, hat in hand apology to Russia and
Erdogan’s no longer isolated by the Americans…and no matter what the Americans
might promise now, Erdogan has a better future with Russia since everything
Turkey requires can be found on the New Silk Road.

The Turkish Flip Flop

In the end, there is an economic partnership waiting for
Turkey with Russia and China that spans the entire region, including a piece of
the energy action with pipelines through Turkey to Europe…a Europe I might add
that will not be in a position to say nyet to Russian & Iranian Gas and
Oil, simply because, they desperately need it.

By no means is Erdogan a trustworthy character. He’s more
like an unstable Mob Boss that will switch sides if it benefits his business
interests…What Erdogan and Turkey need to remember is that Independence is a
great idea, but if you force your views on other Independent nations such as Syria,
Libya, Yemen, Russia etc., you will never again know peace…Turkey has a long
way to go to make amends, so here’s my advice to Erdogan: get rid of US and
NATO from your country, get out of Syria, seal your border and make peace with
the Kurds…and one more thing, don’t double cross your friends a second
time…trust is earned, but once trust is broken, one will find himself on shaky
foundations…

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