Synopsis

A funny new twist on a classic love story, WARM BODIES is a poignant tale about the power of human connection. After a zombie epidemic, R (a highly unusual zombie) encounters Julie (a human survivor), and rescues her from a zombie attack. Julie sees that R is different from the other zombies, and as the two form a special relationship in their struggle for survival, R becomes increasingly more human - setting off an exciting, romantic, and often comical chain of events that begins to transform the other zombies and maybe even the whole lifeless world.

Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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The top five of the Blu-ray sales chart this week were nearly all new releases, including the first place Blu-ray, A Good Day Die Hard. This film sold 316,000 units and generated $5.86 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 58%. That's an excellent Blu-ray share, but the film missed expectations pretty much everywhere else. Meanwhile, the Legacy Box Set placed eighth with 17,000 units / $667,000.
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New releases grabbed the top six spots on the DVD sales chart this week, but mainly due to a lack of competition, as there were no monster hits. These new releases were led by Identity Thief with 362,000 units / $6.25 million. It performed surprisingly well in theaters, so this result is pure gravy.
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We are in the heart of summer, which means terrible news on the home market. There were nearly no new releases to make an impact on the Blu-ray sales chart, so it should come as no surprise that the overall Blu-ray sales were weak. In total, there were 779,000 units sold and $18.33 million in revenue generated. This was higher than last week, albeit by miniscule margins of 4% in terms of units and 11% in terms of revenue. It was also higher than the same weekend last year, and by healthier margins of 42% in terms of units and 15% in terms of revenue. DVD sales were a little stronger compared to last week, which resulted in a small decline in the overall Blu-ray share to 28% in terms of units and 37% in terms of revenue.
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It's a typical summer week on the home market with a good mix of first run releases and some summer TV shows coming out on DVD and Blu-ray. There are certainly some releases that are worth picking up, but nothing that will set sell records. Overall, it is solid, but unspectacular. There were a few contenders for Pick of the Week. Breaking Bad: Season Five on DVD or Blu-ray, but it is a split-season release and I'm not happy with the price-per-minute. By comparons, The Newsroom: Season One, which comes out next week, is nearly twice as long but only 25% more money. Brooklyn Castle is another contender; however, while its DVD is certainly worth picking up, I'm not sure it will have wide enough appeal. In the end, I went with Warm Bodies. It may seem like a strange choice, but it is still one of the best wide releases of the year and the DVD and the Blu-ray are loaded with extras.
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Warm Bodies was released in theaters in early February, which is a bad time of the year to release a film. Additionally, the early buzz was bad. A lot of people saw the basic premise (romance between a zombie boy and a living girl) and thought it was just another Twilight rip-off. The first trailer showed it was something different, but sometimes first impressions are lasting impressions. Fortunately it was able to top expectations and became a surprise midlevel hit. Will it continue to perform well on the home market? And did the studio thank those who made it a hit in theaters by releasing a fully loaded DVD / Blu-ray?
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The Croods debuted in first place on the international chart with $63.09 million on 11,709 screens in 46 markets, while its global opening was $106.73 million. The film led the way in Russia with $7.82 million on 2,166 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.65 million, including previews. It made $8.18 million on 521 screens in the U.K., also including previews, which was enough for an easy first place finish. Another first place victory came in Mexico, where it made $4.51 million on 1,990 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.80 million. It also debuted on top of the chart in Germany with $3.63 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.21 million, while it had nearly identical results in Brazil with $3.35 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.13 million. The film earned more number one debuts in Italy ($3.90 million on 711) and in Spain ($3.33 million on 763).
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Oz the Great and Powerful remained in first place with $48.2 million on 10,433 screens in 55 markets for totals of $138.6 million internationally and $282.7 million worldwide. The film took top spot in France with a hair under $5.00 million on 620 screens. During its second weekend in Russia, the film added $4.93 million on 1,137 screens for a total of $21.63 million so far. At this pace, it should have no trouble earning a profit. The only question is whether or not it will get there before it reaches the home market.
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The Valentine's Day / President's Day five-day weekend wasn't as lucrative as many had hoped, at least not at the top, which is really bad news for a year that is not off to a great start. A Good Day to Die Hard won the race, but barely, with Identity Thief coming in a very close second over the weekend. Other new releases, like Safe Haven and Escape From Planet Earth did better than expected, while Beautiful Creatures crashed. The overall box office did rise by 36% to $141 million over the three-day period, but the holiday explains that growth. Compare to last year, 2013 actually failed to match last President's Day by 9.3% over the three-day period and with $168 million including Monday, missed the four-day period by 13%. Year-to-date, 2013 is behind 2012 by 6.7% at $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion. I am officially concerned.
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It was a great week at the box office, all things considered, with Identity Thief crushing expectations and all of the holdovers matching theirs. Only Side Effects struggled at the box office. This helped the overall box office climb 18% from last week to $104 million. This was 47% lower than the same weekend last year; however, this weekend last year was Valentine's weekend, which is one of the biggest non-holiday weekends of the year, so the comparison isn't fair. As I predicted last week, the lead 2013 had built up has evaporated and it is now 1.2% lower than 2012 at $1.05 billion to $1.06 billion. Since Valentine's Day is this Thursday, we should make up the difference quickly.
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There are two wide releases this week, Identity Thief and Side Effects. One of these films is earning amazing reviews and one of them is the overwhelming favorite to win the box office race. Identity Thief looks like it is going to finish in first place and it's only real competition is from last year. Last year the box office was led by a one-two punch of The Vow and Safe House, both of which earned more than $40 million. No movie is going to do that this year, so 2013 is going to lose big this week.
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There were a number of factors that hurt the box office over the weekend, not the least of which was the rather exciting Super Bowl game. (At least it sounds like it was exciting. I Googled the score a couple times, but I didn't watch the game.) Warm Bodies easily won the weekend race and finished on the high end of expectations, while Silver Linings Playbook remains on pace to reach $100 million. On the other hand, Bullet to the Head bombed. Overall, the box office fell 21% to just $89 million. Again, the Super Bowl had a lot to do with that. Compared to last year, the box office was down 23%. 2013 is still ahead of 2012 by 3.4% at $917 million to $887 million but that lead could be gone by the end of next weekend.
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Counter-programming will win the day this Superbowl weekend, with rombie comedy Warm Bodies posting a respectable $20.025 million, according to Lionsgate's Sunday estimate. While there's nothing special about that result, it does give the film a shot at making money, which is more than can be said for actioner Bullet to the Head. Sylvester Stallone's latest will limp to $4.5 million for the weekend, an even worse result than Jason Statham's Parker (which debuted with $7 million) and Arnold Schwarzenegger's The Last Stand ($6.3 million). Put those three together, and you get a combined opening of $17.8 million, which still wouldn't much to write home about if one of them had earned it on its own.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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February begins with two wide releases, Warm Bodies and Bullet to the Head. Both will have to deal with holdovers, and more importantly, The Super Bowl. Bullet to the Head's target audience is nearly identical to that for the Super Bowl, while at least Warm Bodies has at least some chance of a breakout success. Last year there were three wide releases, two of which opened with more than $20 million. It is going to be almost impossible for 2013 to match that result.
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It's the first week of February next week and there are three films battling for box office dollars. This includes the only film from February that I'm really interested in seeing, Warm Bodies. I might be letting my desires cloud my judgment, but I think it will easily win the weekend race and it is the clear choice for target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Warm Bodies.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Dora the Explorer: Dora's Rescue in Mermaid Kingdom on DVD. (This is the French-language bilingual edition.)
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Dora the Explorer: Dora Loves Boots on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.