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As summer doldrums descend, mayoral candidates work to stay alive: James

Winter has turned to spring to summer and the world’s longest mayoral campaign turns to Phase 2.

The first phase is all smiles and promises and the prospect of electoral ecstasy on voting night hundreds of days away. That began beneath the ice cap of January when candidates started registering to run for mayor of Toronto.

Candidates, from left, Karen Stintz, John Tory, Olivia Chow, David Soknacki and Rob Ford at the first Toronto mayoral debate in March. (Nathan Denette / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The campaign teams have been at it for five months, with another four to go. The people who plan, organize and contest elections usually position the final and critical stage of the mayoral contest from Labour Day to election day; early September to late October, about six weeks.

That’s when the voters pay attention, the experts say. Spend too much in March, expend too much in May or June, waste ammunition in the spring and early summer, and you’ll fade in the fiery days of autumn when election fever catches.

That leaves Phase 2, the period between declaration of intent to run and the showtime of “This is what I’m about. Vote for me.” That’s where we are, in late June.

The provincial election is over. Some federal byelections muddy the waters in some ridings where voters must be getting election fatigue. Campaign workers need a rest before the furious fall battles.

It is here that candidates lose their way, fall out of favour, prove deficient in key measurables. This is when money dries up, campaign workers wonder if they picked the right horse, voters decide to dismiss or to engage.

So, even as everyone is preparing for the fall drive, futures are being decided. In the brutal world of politics — in a contest with 62 candidates and only one winner — if you cannot stay alive, viable and relevant over the next two months, it’s over before the stretch run.

Candidates Karen Stintz and David Soknacki already know this. In fact, their campaigns have so languished on the fringes they have been living this Phase 2 from Day 1.

They are two competent candidates with much experience and some good ideas. But early polls show they barely register as electable. That has led Soknacki to take some outlier positions, like banning parking on arterial roads. It’s the type of buzz a candidate needs to get his name out there. It’s not a voting booth winner.

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Phase 2 is usually the quietest. This time, though, Rob Ford will make sure it is not siesta time. The rehabbing mayor returns next week and that is sure to attract unusual attention to the contest.

What do we know at the end of Phase 1? Olivia Chow clings to her lead among decided voters, but the grip is far from secure. John Tory is well positioned in striking distance. Ford’s showing upon his return will greatly affect the outcome. Stumble, and Tory will benefit. Stumble early and Tory might ascend earlier than expected. Do well and appear as a new man, and the vote might be split three ways, forcing voters to form a coalition to block one candidate or the other.

By now, voters have a sense of the main candidates. Phase 2 will affirm or create dissonance. Reinforcement of the message is the key, not position papers or ideas that raise eyebrows or create unease among voters.

Conventional wisdom suggests that a candidate gets rid of the lightning rod policies early in the campaign so the negative publicity will have run its course by Labour Day.

If that is indeed true and the candidates are not expected to unveil controversial ideas during Phase 2, we don’t have much to chew on in this mayoral contest. Apart from transit, there is little that separates them. And, even on transit, the difference is by degrees.

Maybe, then, we can anticipate policy positions that inspire us.

As summer slumbers on, the voter with a keen desire to strengthen Toronto and reposition it after the Ford years, will start searching for someone to vote for, not candidates to vote against.

Who among the candidates has the vision of a Toronto you share? Who has the skills and energy and force of personality to lead us to the Toronto that the world sees — a livable metropolis that is attractive to employees and business, families and singles.

After the failed experiment that is the current mayor, Toronto can choose to settle for anybody but Ford. Or citizens can embrace someone who will stop the rot and motivate them to achieve the promise of a global city with a progressive and prosperous future.

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