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Wednesday, December 10, 2014

In recent years, teams had been ebbing away from paying relievers significant dollars, feeling they were the easiest pieces to find inexpensively. However, Kansas City’s run to the World Series behind a dominant trio of late-game relievers – Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland – has convinced more teams to try to invest in this area.

For the first time since after the 2007 campaign, two relievers in the same free agent class received more than $35 million: Francisco Cordero (four years, $46 million) and Mariano Rivera (three years, $45 million) then, Andrew Miller (four years, $36 million) and David Robertson (four years, $46 million) now. It also represents the first time since that offseason two relievers got four-year deals (Cordero and Scott Linebrink).

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

But here’s the thing with markets: they are cyclical. Things that are overvalued get identified, and their value tends to drop. Things that are undervalued get identified — like the market inefficiency of on-base percentage, explained in Moneyball — and their value rises. Indeed, studies have shown that on-base percentage went from undervalued to properly valued, if not overvalued relative to other skills.

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Miller only needs to be worth 5 WAR over the life of the contract in order to justify it. Here is just one example, starting Miller at 1.5 WAR (not even 2/3 of the WAR he totaled last year) and aging him by 0.2 WAR per season through the end of the contract . . . If Miller puts up even a single season in the next four which resembles his last two years, he’s returning value even if he is close to replacement the other three years.

Friday, December 05, 2014

The 29-year-old Miller (30 next May) broke out in a huge way in 2014, pitching to a 2.02 ERA with an eye-popping 14.9 K/9 (an AL record), 2.5 BB/9 and a 46.9 percent ground-ball rate in 62 1/2 innings for the Red Sox and Orioles… Miller will pair with Dellin Betances — an electric breakout story himself — at the back of the Yankee bullpen, giving manager Joe Girardi a pair of dominant late-inning options… The Miller signing doesn’t necessarily preclude the Yankees from retaining [David] Robertson, as some reports have indicated that it’s at least possible for GM Brian Cashman to spend to bring both elite relievers to the Bronx…

Miller’s contract is the largest ever for a non-closing reliever… As excellent as Miller was in 2014, the contract is clearly not without risk for the Yankees. Setting aside the volatile nature of all relievers, this past season marked the first year in which Miller displayed above-average control and was also the first in which he was allowed to face both right-and left-handed hitters in a full setup capacity.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

“I think Andrew’s evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he’s a closer-in-waiting—and maybe the time for waiting is over,’’ Rodgers said Tuesday from the MLB general managers’ meetings.