UK curb on aviation growth urged

The UK must significantly limit its growth in flying if it is to meet the Government's pledge of keeping aviation emissions to 2005 levels by mid century, the Committee on Climate Change said.

Measures to curb expansion of aviation to 60% above current levels - compared to predicted uncontrolled rises of 200% by 2050 - will mean higher prices for flying and constraints on airport expansion and the number of flights.

But, although the report does not give specific advice on expanding Heathrow, all the extra capacity created by a third runway at the west London airport could be used and still keep the UK on track to meet its emissions target.

The committee's chief executive David Kennedy said the 60% growth target was "extremely challenging" but absolutely possible to achieve.

"It's not that demand has to fall in order for us to meet the target, demand can increase but only in a limited way. We could achieve the target with 60% demand growth in the next 40 years. If we didn't care about carbon or have any capacity restrictions, projected demand would grow in excess of 200%," he said. "Air tickets are going to get a lot more expensive, but people will become a lot richer over the next 40 years. If you're going to constrain demand growth, you do need rising prices."

To meet the Government's pledge of keeping aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050, the total carbon dioxide from flying must not exceed 37.5 million tonnes a year in mid century. And in the future, the global warming impacts of flying other than CO2, including water vapour trails and the effects on clouds, will also have to be taken into account.

More fuel efficient planes, fuller flights and an increase in the use of biofuels would allow for continued growth in aviation over the next four decades, the report from the Government's advisor on climate change said. But there would be only limited increase in biofuels because of concerns the crops used to make them are competing for land with growing food for rising global populations.

Taken together the measures would allow for increases of 60% on current levels - up from 230 million passengers to 370 million - but uncontrolled growth would see passenger numbers hit more than 600 million a year by 2020.

A predicted rise in the carbon price in the EU emissions trading scheme, which will force airlines to pay for their pollution, to £200 a tonne by 2050, along with plans for expanding Heathrow, Stansted and Edinburgh, would limit growth to 115% on current levels.

So extra measures would be needed to reduce demand to keep it within the targets set by the Government. These could include investment in high speed rail to reduce the need for flights between London and Manchester or Scotland and encourage more people to take the train to short haul destinations such as Frankfurt, which could bring down demand for flying by around 10%.