Blogs

In Health

Top Stories

Health Canada says stronger warnings about the risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviours are being added to prescribing information for all drugs used to manage attention deficit hyperactivity disorder...

In Technology

Top Stories

NEW YORK, N.Y. - Since Apple shook up the music world with iTunes a little more than a decade ago, online music has exploded and become the central way many people enjoy and discover music. Internet services...

In Driving

In Homes

Top Stories

The condo lifestyle is catching on in North America, especially for people who want to stay central and enjoy all the perks of big-city living. The catchphrase these days is "build up, not out," as big...

What are the jobs of the future? To be honest, we don’t really know

What are the jobs of the future? To be honest, we don't really know.

Photograph by: Brian Snyder/REUTERS
, National Post

The problem with predicting the future is that the odds of being right are infinitesimal. There are simply too many variables. Recall, for example, that BusinessWeek proclaimed in 1968 that Japanese cars would not carve out a big share of the U.S. auto market, or the announcement by the International Monetary Fund in 1959 that “in all likelihood, world inflation is over.”

Time magazine forecast global cooling in 1975, a one-term presidency for Bill Clinton in 1992 and dismissed what would become ecommerce in 1966 because, it said, “women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their mind.”

Decca Records rejected the Beatles in 1962, saying guitar music is on the way out, and an anonymous publishing executive told J.K. Rowling that children were not interested in witches and wizards any more.

This lack of predictive skills limits society’s ability to plan for the future — to determine what needs must be filled to ensure continued progress and prosperity. Fortunately, there are things we can deduce from demographic trends that suggest the kinds of changes we might anticipate in the world of work.

We know, for instance, that the population is aging and that will probably result in a lower labour force participation rate. Barring any major incidents that would alter the demographic trend line, the percentage of the Canadian population between the ages of 15 and 64 is expected to fall to 60 per cent from about 70 per cent and continue to decline thereafter. The number of those aged 65 and over will double by 2035 to more than 10 million (and nearly 1.45 million in British Columbia).

The labour force participation rate for men over 65 is under 20 per cent and for women under 10 per cent. Again, in the absence of any game-changing intervention, the Canadian labour force participation rate is expected to drop below 60 per cent over the next two decades from the current 68 per cent. Less certain is future labour force demand, but it seems likely that a worker deficit lies ahead.

Indeed, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce cites a shortage of highly skilled labour as the top barrier for businesses and the issue has become a major policy concern for the federal government and the Bank of Canada.

Given our poor record of prediction, however, how can we know what work will look like 20 or 30 years from now? As Miner & Miner Management Consultants pointed out in the study People without Jobs, Jobs without People, a quarter of the jobs listed in the U.S. occupational codes in 2003 did not exist in 1967.

Human Resources and Skills Development Canada has developed an online tool that provides some guidance on the number of jobs in specific industries looking forward. The Canadian Occupational Projection System (http://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/.4cc.5p.1t.3onalforcastsummarys.2arch@-eng. jsp) shows declines in agriculture, paper manufacturing and rubber, plastics and chemicals. It sees gains in oil and gas extraction, mining, professional business services and health care and social assistance.

Clearly, many old jobs will remain although the methods employed could be vastly different. At the World Economic Forum annual meeting several years ago, delegates agreed that educational systems must be restructured in order to meet future skill requirements and “include broad-based skills so that future workers find it far easier to switch between different occupations.”

At the same time, society must put a higher value on vocational qualifications, which will be as important as a university degree.

“We need electricians, plumbers, infrastructure workers and higher-level production workers,” said David Arkless, executive board member of Manpower USA.

“We have to make these sorts of jobs, which make cities work, look valuable and feel valuable.”

The forum offered some comfort to those who worry about the unknown job market of the future. As much as 85 per cent of job skills are not specific to a particular task, it concluded, but include work habits, project management, teamwork, communications, time management and punctuality.

The University of Calgary Counselling Centre did some crystal-ball gazing several years ago and came up with a selection of jobs it assumed would have good future prospects. It groups these careers under categories it called ‘waves,’ which are supposed to carry us through the 21st century.

Information Revolution

The wave of information will create demand for people with 16 years or more of education or training to deal with vast amounts of information, synthesize it, and teach others.

The High Technology and Material Creation wave requires people in research and development, design, engineering, software and customer support familiar with the capabilities of today’s (and tomorrow’s) made-made materials such as composites and advanced ceramics.

• Systems Analysts

• Software Developers

• Computer Animators, Editors and Camera Operators

• Electrical Trades

• Technical Writers

• Equipment Maintenance Workers

• Technical Sales Personnel

Global Village

The Global Village wave includes the opportunities that will expand through ecommerce, Internet telecommunications, free trade, open borders and multicultural environments.

• Internet Specialists

• Web Page Designers

• Protocol Officers

• Translators

• International Lawyers

• Language and Cultural Experts

• Sensitivity and Diversity Trainers

Natural Systems

The Natural Systems Awareness wave is all about the environment, alternative medicines and treatments, as well as biotechnology, nano-technology, cloning, molecular engineering and gene manipulation.

The Patterns of Working wave suggests an increase in small business, entrepreneurship and self-employment as organizations rely more on consultants and contract workers or temporary workers. These careers could be any of those listed above.

Emerging Trends

Finally, the Emerging Trends wave introduces careers that may be so new as to be pioneering, and some that do not yet exist.

We encourage all readers to share their views on our articles and blog posts. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion, so we ask you to avoid personal attacks, and please keep your comments relevant and respectful. If you encounter a comment that is abusive, click the "X" in the upper right corner of the comment box to report spam or abuse. We are using Facebook commenting. Visit our FAQ page for more information.