I'm trying to think of a more surreal place on Earth than North Korea and coming up woefully short. I disagree with those that claim the ROK has no exports. They export sabre-rattling very effectively. That, combined with a nuclear "look at me" mind set, is definitely something to be worried about.

Supposedly Kim Jong-Un, between this and the revelations about the nuclear 'facility', is trying to get the people to rally round the flag and bluff the South and the US to go back to Six Party Talks.

Wonder if this would have happened if somebody with a bit more sand in his craw were manning TOTUS?

I'm sure all the sharp notes of protest will make a difference.

PS If the ROKs are anything like what I've read about them and their conduct their conduct in 'Nam (when they captured a prisoner, they'd lop off an ear or a couple of fingers before interrogation, just to let him know it was for real), the Norks picked the wrong fight with the wrong people.

Is there a difference between being insane and being sane but raised inside a completely sealed-off bubble of insanity?

I've often thought of a scenario where the young heir pays lips service to the hard line while gathering a loyal stable of supporters that have had enough. On the day power changes hands, he has all of the hardliners jailed or killed and announces to the world that the insanity is over.

On the day power changes hands, he has all of the hardliners jailed or killed and announces to the world that the insanity is over. Would seem to suggest that the “insanity” has simply taken a new form. I know you don’t mean it, but one simply does not end Stalinism, via arrests and summary executions, i.e., more Stalinism. And I cannot help but believe that the fate of Nicolae Ceausescu has not permeated the apparatus of North Korean control. After about 10-30% of the populace has been written off in a famine, when those people have control of the streets I imagine most Korean Workers Party members would long for a firing squad, rather than what might occur. In short, for the Kim Family and hangers-on, ”Apres moi le Deluge.”

Scott M,Who in their society in any position of power has "had enough"? Those are the only ones who have anything - they aren't going to give it up. They know they wouldn't be in power long if they started opening things up.

It's been said that Kim-Jong-il is a master negotiator, and few would disagree after the one, two punch delivered in short order to South Korea and the U.S.

Just in case it wasn't enough to find modern nuclear facilities in North Korea in the past month, he finishes off with a flourish of regular warfare as if it were just icing on the cake headed for that five-way discussion with the U.S., Russia, Japan, China and South Korea.

In reality, I don't know. In this fiction-writer's mind, a romanticized idealistic and honorable young heir and his immediate supporters. The stuff of good fiction, to be sure. No so much in line with what's likely to happen.

How can anyone possibly reason with or anticipate the actions of a nation that is led by a madman.

Yes, but, until 2012, we are stuck with The Zero and must do the best we can.

=============To war or not is S Korea's call and not Obama or the Right-wing's Dear Mrs Palin if she replaces Zeroman. And S Korea has to consider what backing they would have, and how many 100s of thousands or even millions they lose to NORK military strikes if war starts.

And free trade and globalism has made America China's bitch in many ways. So how China "feels" about matters is far more constraining on America's actions than it was in earlier years.

PS - I reject Henhouses "single madman" theory of history. Leaders like Stalin and Kim Il-sung and Il-Jong arise only from a system that created them.Most N Koreans back their system.

The greatest foreign policy illusion of America in recent years (besides free trade=democracy and benefit for all) is that you get rid of the "madman" and the country rapily becomes Just Like Peoria.

The notion that Iraq just needed madman Saddam gone so they could become a stable WEstern democracy, that All Islamist Terror ends when bin Laden is "brought to Justice", and Cuba will become "Freedom-Lovers Island" once Fidel croaks is just laughable.

Trooper York said...The Japanese must be shitting their kimonoes right about now.

Imagine having to depend on Barry to protect you?=====================What obligation exists that American lives are "owed" in Japan's defense in matters the Japanese elect that it is far better to have America paying to do what the Japanese still refuse to get involved in after 65 years.

What sense would this make:

"Americans nobly picked up the burden and defended both KOrea and Japan against aggression.

S Korean casualties were 800,000. America's were 41,000.Japan's were 0."

"The victory came thanks to military efforts, and Japan's help in crafting sternly worded diplomatic communiques demanding the NORK military stand down."

I've been living in South Korea for years now. Many of the leftists here blame the *South Korean* government for the North's provocations. They say the Norks are lashing out because of Lee Myung Bak's hard-line conservative policies.

The far right oldsters are outraged that more is not being done. Most everyone else shakes their heads while muttering "Those crazy bastards" before moving on with their day.

Until their is massive public interest, I doubt the government is going to do anything except try to minimize the economic effects of these skirmishes. The won went into a freefall yesterday afternoon after the attacks, which is actually a *good* thing for Samsung/LG/Hyundai/Kia in the export-based economy.

No foreign policy expert here, but as an observer of international policy, I wonder why all eyes turn to the US when, bottom line, most of us can agree that "all politics are local"...Japan...Russia...China?

The Koreas are experiencing some potentially deadly "man-made virus". You are closest, and because of that, might provide assistance in short order.

The youth of South Korea have no idea what's going on. They've been taught for years that America is the problem and that "sunshine policy" with the North will eventually turn around a megalomaniacal dictator.

Gwen said....The far right oldsters are outraged that more is not being done.

Rialby said...The youth of South Korea have no idea what's going on. They've been taught for years that America is the problem and that "sunshine policy" with the North will eventually turn around a megalomaniacal dictator.

Taught by the same leftist Academia

Only the old folks know the truth here. The NORKs aren't heralds of Heaven on Earth, Stalin style.

"I wonder why all eyes turn to the US when, bottom line, most of us can agree that "all politics are local"...Japan...Russia...China?"

I would very much agree that Russia and China have an interest in keeping the NoKo's in check, their (Russia and China) penchant for occasionally jabbing a thumb in our eye notwithstanding. I think they both know this is not the time or place to see the U.S. humbled, given how quickly this situation could spiral completely out of control.

The Japanese, on the other hand, well no one really wants to see Japan provide for their own defense, much less the defense of their foreign interests. The logical extension of the last time the Japanese felt the need to protect their supply of oil (as well as other various materials) resulted in Pearl Harbor. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, in Asia wants to see a remilitarized Japan. Better that the U.S. guarantee Japanese security.

Michael, I hear you, but if you are honest with yourself, you've got to know that we could fill in the blank with nearly any President's name who was on "watch" at the time.

Therein lay at least HALF the problem.

In our current zeitgeist, American Presidents were raised reading about or watching the few who went before them. It's no surprise that when they reach the position of President of the USA, they turn around to see what others have done before them, and to try to pick and choose that which makes some sense...and on any given day!

So FEW have gone before...

When that doesn't work as well as planned, I suspect that Presidents will look to those other Presidents who "failed" on any given day, only to decide that they will do THAT particular thing...differently.

So FEW have gone before...

I could go on, Michael, but I won't...except to say...

With the advent of the internet, we are no longer talking about putting on underpants with the "Presidential Seal".

C4 - America assumed the burden of defending Japan because America wanted a pretty much disarmed, passive/pacifist Japan, as it was found that the militarized version was rather costly to put in its place. If America wishes to change the deal, it is free to do so (and I think it should), but it would only be decent give some notice so the Japanese can begin a rearmament program in earnest, should they decide to do so.

Penny: No foreign policy expert here, but as an observer of international policy, I wonder why all eyes turn to the US when, bottom line, most of us can agree that "all politics are local"...Japan...Russia...China?

Thats a fair question.

The reason everyone looks to America is because we are the only nation that can effectively project force around the globe

Diplomacy is worse than useless unless its backed by the threat of force.

China intends to control the Pacific Rim, so it will be interesting to see how they pull the strings of their NORK proxy.

Honestly, I don't want us getting involved here. South Korea has the money, manpower and motive to fight and defeat North Korea by itself.

I'm fine with us selling them all the weapons they want to buy. But they should fight their own wars. We fought their last one and what have we got to show for it, aside from a whole lot of ungrateful South Koreans?

One would suspect that the South Korean military is always operating in crisis mode, but I don't think that is the case at all. My husband is Korean, and the stories he tells me of his time as a conscript are baffling. Korean bases are guarded by 20 year olds with unloaded guns for Christ's sake!

@Penny-

I can say with near certainty that South Korea does not want to see a re-militarized Japan. Generally speaking, South Koreans *hate* the Japanese and remain deeply distrustful of them.

Perchance have you ever heard of the Korean/Japanese territorial dispute over the islets of Dokdo/Takeshima? The total area of the land is 46 acres, but the Koreans get worked into an unbelievable frenzy over the Japanese claim to control. A very sizable portion of the citizenry is convinced that the Japanese will use these islets as a stepping stone to re-annexing the peninsula. No joke.

@Revenant- I agree that it is time for South Korea to stand alone an fight its own wars. I have been heartened to see the television coverage here in Korea is focused on how the South Korean government is/should be handling the situation. I see quotes of official US statements, but from what I can tell, nobody is looking to Washington to handle things. Of course, who knows what is being said behind closed doors.

Revenant is also pretty much spot on about the general ungratefulness of many Koreans. Again, the oldsters who lived through the war are very pro-US / anit-Nork, but they are a dying breed.