Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus

The scruffy-looking urban studies professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., has been studying and writing on demographic and geographic trends for 30 years. Part of California's dysfunction, he says, stems from state and local government restrictions on development. These policies have artificially limited housing supply and put a premium on real estate in coastal regions. [...]

While many middle-class families have moved inland, those regions don't have the same allure or amenities as the coast. People might as well move to Nevada or Texas, where housing and everything else is cheaper and there's no income tax.

And things will only get worse in the coming years as Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and his green cadre implement their "smart growth" plans to cram the proletariat into high-density housing. "What I find reprehensible beyond belief is that the people pushing [high-density housing] themselves live in single-family homes and often drive very fancy cars, but want everyone else to live like my grandmother did in Brownsville in Brooklyn in the 1920s," Mr. Kotkin declares.

"The new regime"—his name for progressive apparatchiks who run California's government—"wants to destroy the essential reason why people move to California in order to protect their own lifestyles."

Housing is merely one front of what he calls the "progressive war on the middle class." Another is the cap-and-trade law AB32, which will raise the cost of energy and drive out manufacturing jobs without making even a dent in global carbon emissions. Then there are the renewable portfolio standards, which mandate that a third of the state's energy come from renewable sources like wind and the sun by 2020. California's electricity prices are already 50% higher than the national average.

Oh, and don't forget the $100 billion bullet train. Mr. Kotkin calls the runaway-cost train "classic California." "Where [Brown] with the state going bankrupt is even thinking about an expenditure like this is beyond comprehension. When the schools are falling apart, when the roads are falling apart, the bridges are unsafe, the state economy is in free fall. We're still doing much worse than the rest of the country, we've got this growing permanent welfare class, and high-speed rail is going to solve this?"

Mr. Kotkin describes himself as an old-fashioned Truman Democrat. In fact, he voted for Mr. Brown—who previously served as governor, secretary of state and attorney general—because he believed Mr. Brown "was interesting and thought outside the box."

But "Jerry's been a big disappointment," Mr. Kotkin says. "I've known Jerry for 35 years, and he's smart, but he just can't seem to be a paradigm breaker. And of course, it's because he really believes in this green stuff."

In the governor's dreams, green jobs will replace all of the "tangible jobs" that the state's losing in agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing and construction. But "green energy doesn't create enough energy!" Mr. Kotkin exclaims. "And it drives up the price of energy, which then drives out other things." Notwithstanding all of the subsidies the state lavishes on renewables, green jobs only make up about 2% of California's private-sector work force—no more than they do in Texas.

The scruffy-looking urban studies professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., has been studying and writing on demographic and geographic trends for 30 years. Part of California's dysfunction, he says, stems from state and local government restrictions on development. These policies have artificially limited housing supply and put a premium on real estate in coastal regions. [...]

While many middle-class families have moved inland, those regions don't have the same allure or amenities as the coast. People might as well move to Nevada or Texas, where housing and everything else is cheaper and there's no income tax.

And things will only get worse in the coming years as Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and his green cadre implement their "smart growth" plans to cram the proletariat into high-density housing. "What I find reprehensible beyond belief is that the people pushing [high-density housing] themselves live in single-family homes and often drive very fancy cars, but want everyone else to live like my grandmother did in Brownsville in Brooklyn in the 1920s," Mr. Kotkin declares.

"The new regime"—his name for progressive apparatchiks who run California's government—"wants to destroy the essential reason why people move to California in order to protect their own lifestyles."

Housing is merely one front of what he calls the "progressive war on the middle class." Another is the cap-and-trade law AB32, which will raise the cost of energy and drive out manufacturing jobs without making even a dent in global carbon emissions. Then there are the renewable portfolio standards, which mandate that a third of the state's energy come from renewable sources like wind and the sun by 2020. California's electricity prices are already 50% higher than the national average.

Oh, and don't forget the $100 billion bullet train. Mr. Kotkin calls the runaway-cost train "classic California." "Where [Brown] with the state going bankrupt is even thinking about an expenditure like this is beyond comprehension. When the schools are falling apart, when the roads are falling apart, the bridges are unsafe, the state economy is in free fall. We're still doing much worse than the rest of the country, we've got this growing permanent welfare class, and high-speed rail is going to solve this?"

Mr. Kotkin describes himself as an old-fashioned Truman Democrat. In fact, he voted for Mr. Brown—who previously served as governor, secretary of state and attorney general—because he believed Mr. Brown "was interesting and thought outside the box."

But "Jerry's been a big disappointment," Mr. Kotkin says. "I've known Jerry for 35 years, and he's smart, but he just can't seem to be a paradigm breaker. And of course, it's because he really believes in this green stuff."

In the governor's dreams, green jobs will replace all of the "tangible jobs" that the state's losing in agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing and construction. But "green energy doesn't create enough energy!" Mr. Kotkin exclaims. "And it drives up the price of energy, which then drives out other things." Notwithstanding all of the subsidies the state lavishes on renewables, green jobs only make up about 2% of California's private-sector work force—no more than they do in Texas.

That single sentence blew any credibility right out of the water for this writer.. period.

I lived in Calif. I am a Calif native. I REMEMBER 'enron' and the Bush administration! (I lived thru it!)

The scruffy-looking urban studies professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., has been studying and writing on demographic and geographic trends for 30 years. Part of California's dysfunction, he says, stems from state and local government restrictions on development. These policies have artificially limited housing supply and put a premium on real estate in coastal regions. [...]

While many middle-class families have moved inland, those regions don't have the same allure or amenities as the coast. People might as well move to Nevada or Texas, where housing and everything else is cheaper and there's no income tax.

And things will only get worse in the coming years as Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and his green cadre implement their "smart growth" plans to cram the proletariat into high-density housing. "What I find reprehensible beyond belief is that the people pushing [high-density housing] themselves live in single-family homes and often drive very fancy cars, but want everyone else to live like my grandmother did in Brownsville in Brooklyn in the 1920s," Mr. Kotkin declares.

"The new regime"—his name for progressive apparatchiks who run California's government—"wants to destroy the essential reason why people move to California in order to protect their own lifestyles."

Housing is merely one front of what he calls the "progressive war on the middle class." Another is the cap-and-trade law AB32, which will raise the cost of energy and drive out manufacturing jobs without making even a dent in global carbon emissions. Then there are the renewable portfolio standards, which mandate that a third of the state's energy come from renewable sources like wind and the sun by 2020. California's electricity prices are already 50% higher than the national average.

Oh, and don't forget the $100 billion bullet train. Mr. Kotkin calls the runaway-cost train "classic California." "Where [Brown] with the state going bankrupt is even thinking about an expenditure like this is beyond comprehension. When the schools are falling apart, when the roads are falling apart, the bridges are unsafe, the state economy is in free fall. We're still doing much worse than the rest of the country, we've got this growing permanent welfare class, and high-speed rail is going to solve this?"

Mr. Kotkin describes himself as an old-fashioned Truman Democrat. In fact, he voted for Mr. Brown—who previously served as governor, secretary of state and attorney general—because he believed Mr. Brown "was interesting and thought outside the box."

But "Jerry's been a big disappointment," Mr. Kotkin says. "I've known Jerry for 35 years, and he's smart, but he just can't seem to be a paradigm breaker. And of course, it's because he really believes in this green stuff."

In the governor's dreams, green jobs will replace all of the "tangible jobs" that the state's losing in agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing and construction. But "green energy doesn't create enough energy!" Mr. Kotkin exclaims. "And it drives up the price of energy, which then drives out other things." Notwithstanding all of the subsidies the state lavishes on renewables, green jobs only make up about 2% of California's private-sector work force—no more than they do in Texas.

That single sentence blew any credibility right out of the water for this writer.. period.

I lived in Calif. I am a Calif native. I REMEMBER 'enron' and the Bush administration! (I lived thru it!)

Yep, the author is full of shit.

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

The scruffy-looking urban studies professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., has been studying and writing on demographic and geographic trends for 30 years. Part of California's dysfunction, he says, stems from state and local government restrictions on development. These policies have artificially limited housing supply and put a premium on real estate in coastal regions. [...]

While many middle-class families have moved inland, those regions don't have the same allure or amenities as the coast. People might as well move to Nevada or Texas, where housing and everything else is cheaper and there's no income tax.

And things will only get worse in the coming years as Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and his green cadre implement their "smart growth" plans to cram the proletariat into high-density housing. "What I find reprehensible beyond belief is that the people pushing [high-density housing] themselves live in single-family homes and often drive very fancy cars, but want everyone else to live like my grandmother did in Brownsville in Brooklyn in the 1920s," Mr. Kotkin declares.

"The new regime"—his name for progressive apparatchiks who run California's government—"wants to destroy the essential reason why people move to California in order to protect their own lifestyles."

Housing is merely one front of what he calls the "progressive war on the middle class." Another is the cap-and-trade law AB32, which will raise the cost of energy and drive out manufacturing jobs without making even a dent in global carbon emissions. Then there are the renewable portfolio standards, which mandate that a third of the state's energy come from renewable sources like wind and the sun by 2020. California's electricity prices are already 50% higher than the national average.

Oh, and don't forget the $100 billion bullet train. Mr. Kotkin calls the runaway-cost train "classic California." "Where [Brown] with the state going bankrupt is even thinking about an expenditure like this is beyond comprehension. When the schools are falling apart, when the roads are falling apart, the bridges are unsafe, the state economy is in free fall. We're still doing much worse than the rest of the country, we've got this growing permanent welfare class, and high-speed rail is going to solve this?"

Mr. Kotkin describes himself as an old-fashioned Truman Democrat. In fact, he voted for Mr. Brown—who previously served as governor, secretary of state and attorney general—because he believed Mr. Brown "was interesting and thought outside the box."

But "Jerry's been a big disappointment," Mr. Kotkin says. "I've known Jerry for 35 years, and he's smart, but he just can't seem to be a paradigm breaker. And of course, it's because he really believes in this green stuff."

In the governor's dreams, green jobs will replace all of the "tangible jobs" that the state's losing in agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing and construction. But "green energy doesn't create enough energy!" Mr. Kotkin exclaims. "And it drives up the price of energy, which then drives out other things." Notwithstanding all of the subsidies the state lavishes on renewables, green jobs only make up about 2% of California's private-sector work force—no more than they do in Texas.

That single sentence blew any credibility right out of the water for this writer.. period.

I lived in Calif. I am a Calif native. I REMEMBER 'enron' and the Bush administration! (I lived thru it!)

Yep, the author is full of shit.

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Only when they tell the 'entire' truth and are truly bipartisan! Unfortunately, he(Joel Kotkin) is neither.

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Given the substantially higher cost of renewables in California, it's sort of ironic that those like Mark and Christian would apparently bend to "right wing trolling" - ie "never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity".

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Given the substantially higher cost of renewables in California, it's sort of ironic that those like Mark and Christian would apparently bend to "right wing trolling" - ie "never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity".

That's hysterical! You conveniently avoided actually answering the question. You just went on a personal attack from another direction which is your M.O. when facts are challenged or your intellectual integrity is challenged!!

The scruffy-looking urban studies professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., has been studying and writing on demographic and geographic trends for 30 years. Part of California's dysfunction, he says, stems from state and local government restrictions on development. These policies have artificially limited housing supply and put a premium on real estate in coastal regions. [...]

While many middle-class families have moved inland, those regions don't have the same allure or amenities as the coast. People might as well move to Nevada or Texas, where housing and everything else is cheaper and there's no income tax.

And things will only get worse in the coming years as Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and his green cadre implement their "smart growth" plans to cram the proletariat into high-density housing. "What I find reprehensible beyond belief is that the people pushing [high-density housing] themselves live in single-family homes and often drive very fancy cars, but want everyone else to live like my grandmother did in Brownsville in Brooklyn in the 1920s," Mr. Kotkin declares.

"The new regime"—his name for progressive apparatchiks who run California's government—"wants to destroy the essential reason why people move to California in order to protect their own lifestyles."

Housing is merely one front of what he calls the "progressive war on the middle class." Another is the cap-and-trade law AB32, which will raise the cost of energy and drive out manufacturing jobs without making even a dent in global carbon emissions. Then there are the renewable portfolio standards, which mandate that a third of the state's energy come from renewable sources like wind and the sun by 2020. California's electricity prices are already 50% higher than the national average.

Oh, and don't forget the $100 billion bullet train. Mr. Kotkin calls the runaway-cost train "classic California." "Where [Brown] with the state going bankrupt is even thinking about an expenditure like this is beyond comprehension. When the schools are falling apart, when the roads are falling apart, the bridges are unsafe, the state economy is in free fall. We're still doing much worse than the rest of the country, we've got this growing permanent welfare class, and high-speed rail is going to solve this?"

Mr. Kotkin describes himself as an old-fashioned Truman Democrat. In fact, he voted for Mr. Brown—who previously served as governor, secretary of state and attorney general—because he believed Mr. Brown "was interesting and thought outside the box."

But "Jerry's been a big disappointment," Mr. Kotkin says. "I've known Jerry for 35 years, and he's smart, but he just can't seem to be a paradigm breaker. And of course, it's because he really believes in this green stuff."

In the governor's dreams, green jobs will replace all of the "tangible jobs" that the state's losing in agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing and construction. But "green energy doesn't create enough energy!" Mr. Kotkin exclaims. "And it drives up the price of energy, which then drives out other things." Notwithstanding all of the subsidies the state lavishes on renewables, green jobs only make up about 2% of California's private-sector work force—no more than they do in Texas.

That single sentence blew any credibility right out of the water for this writer.. period.

I lived in Calif. I am a Calif native. I REMEMBER 'enron' and the Bush administration! (I lived thru it!)

Yep, the author is full of shit.

Sorry Mark, Enron was prosecuted during the Bush administration, but the crimes occurred during 42's administration

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Given the substantially higher cost of renewables in California, it's sort of ironic that those like Mark and Christian would apparently bend to "right wing trolling" - ie "never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity".

That's hysterical! You conveniently avoided actually answering the question. You just went on a personal attack from another direction which is your M.O. when facts are challenged or your intellectual integrity is challenged!!

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Given the substantially higher cost of renewables in California, it's sort of ironic that those like Mark and Christian would apparently bend to "right wing trolling" - ie "never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity".

That's hysterical! You conveniently avoided actually answering the question. You just went on a personal attack from another direction which is your M.O. when facts are challenged or your intellectual integrity is challenged!!

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Given the substantially higher cost of renewables in California, it's sort of ironic that those like Mark and Christian would apparently bend to "right wing trolling" - ie "never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity".

I had not commented in this thread, or on the state of energy costs in California.

Are you saying that they aren't currently 50% higher than the national average?

Nope.. not at all.. but do you know WHY they are? Nope you dont! I however do.

Oh come on, Mark, you know the first rule of right-wing trolling: never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity.

Are you really agreeing that someone's opinion who lived in California years ago and is not an apparent expert on the issues involved, is, on its face, more credible than that of a California university professor, living in California today, and studying the relevant issues?

Given the substantially higher cost of renewables in California, it's sort of ironic that those like Mark and Christian would apparently bend to "right wing trolling" - ie "never let the facts get in the way of a propaganda opportunity".

I had not commented in this thread, or on the state of energy costs in California.