Updated mock draft: 15th February

February 15th, 2012 | Written by Rob Staton

This week I’m going to go against my better judgement and project a trade. It’s unavoidable. There’s a feeling within some front offices that Robert Griffin III won’t get out of the top three picks, even if that means he’s selected by the Minnesota Vikings. Teams with an eye on RGIII will have to weigh up how much they’re willing to spend to deal with St. Louis or Minnesota. I suspect it’ll take something special to get the #2 pick because the Rams will essentially be turning down the opportunity to draft Matt Kalil. St. Louis needs a deal that makes it worth their while – not in the future, but for now.

For those reasons I suspect Cleveland could be an appealing trade partner, with the Browns packaging their two first round picks to move up. This would afford the Rams the opportunity to fill two needs in round one and only suffer a small move down the board from #2 to #4. Cleveland recently appointed Brad Childress as offensive coordinator – a coach who has predominantly worked with mobile quarterbacks during his time with Andy Reid and at Minnesota. The Browns’ rebuild under Mike Holmgren has been slow progress so far, but Griffin III could rejuvenate the team and the fans in Cleveland. For St. Louis, they’d still have a chance to grab a much needed addition to the offensive line and draft a wide receiver later in the first round.

Whether such a move actually happens, we’ll have to wait and see. However, it seems increasingly likely Griffin III will be drafted in the top three. Those hoping the Seahawks will make a bold move to address the quarterback position will be left disappointed – Seattle isn’t going to trade up for a quarterback this year and are unlikely to address the position in round one.

A St. Louis/Cleveland trade could be the catalyst for an offensive-minded start to the draft. Tampa Bay would be in an ideal situation choosing between Morris Claiborne (they need to improve their secondary) and Trent Richardson (a potentially defining player for Greg Schiano’s run-centric system). By the time Jacksonville are on the clock, we may not see a defensive player off the board. That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Seahawks, who appear determined to improve their pass rush early in this draft.

A lot is still to be determined by free agency and the combine which starts next week. Several players will shoot up the boards after the event in Indianapolis and keep an eye out for North Carolina’s Zach Brown. Sources tell us there’s a feeling that Brown could really propel his stock at the combine due to his overall athleticism and straight line speed. He’s broken sprinting records at UNC and could be set for a big leap, certainly into contention within the first twelve picks. In terms of free agency, Washington and Miami are both expected to be aggressive in the quarterback market. That could dictate what direction they go in round one. For example – if the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning, they could be inclined to go heavy on the offensive line to protect their investment.

Updated first round mock draft

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

*TRADE* #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
Cleveland would need to part with both first round picks to draft RGIII. Would St. Louis pass on a shot at Matt Kalil?

#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
This would be a dream for the Vikings. They avoid any awkward QB situations with Griffin/Ponder and take a left tackle with elite potential.

*TRADE* #4 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
St. Louis softens the blow of trading out of Matt Kalil-range by drafting Reiff and adding a receiver later in round one.

#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need, so Claiborne is an alternative.

#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M)
This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

And knowing they would get Reiff, St. Louis would have no problem passing on Kalil. I’m just not sure Cleveland would let 2 firsts go knowing they would have a shot anyways if Minn passes, and if not, they would be able to get two studs anyways. But, this is why mocks are so fun!

Obviously none of us actually know what will happen on draft day, but for some reason, this really feels like something that could happen. Of course that feeling is just based on the general speculations going on by everyone. I think Chandler Jones is an interesting new pick from you. It seems like a lot other draft sites have Jones in the third or maybe late second range. Do you think he is going to move up based on his combine performance?

The trade possibility sounds very plausible. My only question would be what Doug has already said — would Holmgren give up 2 #1 picks if he thinks he may get his man anyway and save one of his picks in the process? Just looking at him you can tell he’s a man who likes to “have his cake and eat it too”.

I love the thought of Upshaw for one reason: Defensive versatility. Further, I hope the Hawks get multiple defenders out of this draft that can play in a variety of spots depending on the down. I love the idea of Upshaw in RD1, and a linebacker in the later rounds that can put pressure on the QB from the LB spot and then lining them up according to where the situation dictates.

As to the poster above who doesn’t konw if Cleveland will give up both firsts b/c Griffin might slip anyway; if they don’t, the odds are good they won’t get him. The odds that both Miami and Washington solve their b problems in FA are less than 50%, IMO, and one of them is going to be willing to give up a lot to the Rams for the chance to get RGIII. The Browns will know this come draft day, and will have to choose between having the two first rounders, and having RGIII, b/c they almost certainly won’t be able to have both.

This trade makes sense for CLE but is too clever by half for STL. The Rams roster, in a sentence, does not have a single difference maker at any position. God love Stephen Jackson. He’s still good, but is no longer a difference maker. This is NOT the draft to walk away from a potential difference maker at a position of need. There are so few in this draft (or any draft). So why would STL risk missing out on one for a shot to draft a player at #22 when they could get his rough equivalent in the 2nd round at #33?

I don’t think the calculus is as simple as Reiff+Jones > Kalil. The talent discrepancy flattens out quickly after the first handful of picks. The talent you can get at #10 isn’t an order of magnitude better than what you can get at #40. To be clear I like both Reiff and Jones, especially Jones. But Jones specifically is no slam dunk to ever meet his considerable potential, which is why many teams will not look at him in the first round. So (a) Jones could be available with STL’s 2nd round pick without this trade, and (b) STL is probably still looking at high impact/less risky TEs like Allen or Fleener, or at WRs like Sanu or Randle.

In the main, I like your policy of not forecasting trades (even though I’m sure it’s boring to mock Courtney Upshaw to us week after week). It’s one thing to note that a team is highly likely to move out of its current position, but mock trades generate too much uncertainty without a lot of additional insight.

It’s possible Holmy get’s an itchy trigger finger and moves up ,if he want’s his man. He wanted to move up with the Tatupu selection and his staff talked him into sittimg pat.
Holmy is a proud man, it’s very possible he stick’s with Colt and select’s a QB early to compete. I think the Bama RB will be the selection, worked out well for him in seattle.
I also remember Holmy saying he wish he had built his defence through the draft. I don’t think they are done yet.
Keep up the good work Rob, love the site….

Rob,
Let’s say the draft goes as badly as possible for the Hawks, and the first 11 players off the board are in no specific order:
Luck
RGIII
Kalil
Reiff
Richardson
Coples
Upshaw
Ingram
Claiborne
Still
Blackmon

At this point, without a trade down possibility, where do the Hawks look?

I don’t see the Hawks touching Burfict with a ten-foot pole, the guy is a total nutcase loser, Pete already passed on him at USC, for being as bright as flat black paint. He is a loser, quitter, out of control baby in a monsters body…

Rob, if St. Louis has Kalil rated as high as most, then taking him at 2 and bumping Saffold to RT makes sense. However, if they trade down to 4 or 6 or even 9, why would they necessarily take Reiff, Martin or Adams? They need a RT to replace Jason Smith, and people in Seattle were complaining that a RT (Carpenter) at 25 was too rich. Is there any evidence that they (St Louis) are dissatisfied with Saffold at Left Tackle? I could just as easily see them take Claiborne at 4 or 6 vs. Reiff and address RT by trading back into the bottom of the 1st round using ammo from the trade down.

It’s a fair point, diehard82. I think the Rams have to get that line in order and one of the reasons I was high on Jason Smith in 2009 was down to his potential to move inside and play guard. I’d be interested to see STL try that, with Saffold staying at LT and Reiff at RT. Now don’t get me wrong – I more than anyone have argued against focusing too much on line play and ignoring the skill positions. The Rams absolutely must get some receivers. However, I think it’s important they address the line this year too. I look at like this – Reiff in the top ten isn’t completely ideal, but they have the opportunity to look at guys like Jones, Wright, Floyd, Randle, Jeffery etc with their next two picks if they made a trade – a R1 in the 20’s and the first pick in R2. That’s preferable to going Blackmon and then wondering what to do later. They need more than one talented WR too – so a Reiff, Jones and Randle draft, paired with Saffold, Bradford, Jackson, Smith etc suddenly looks like an offense you can build around. That’s what I’d be thinking anyway, because it’s the offense that is letting STL down right now and although they desperately need help in that secondary, they’ll have a high third rounder and cap room in FA to address that too.

I know you have Sean Spence rounding out R1, but I’m hoping he makes it to us in round 2… Upshaw and Spence 1st & 2nd round would be good way to start the draft. I know you like RB in the 2nd, and I agree with you, but I don’t think you could pass that up if its there. My question on Spence though is he too small to be a LB for Pete Carroll? I know he’s fast enough, but Carroll seems to like them big.

Hey Rob if you have time could you put up some analysis on Zach Brown (or maybe you alread have?) Do you think he fits at WLB? Do you think he is a real option considering the WLB options in round two? Lavonte David, both LBs from Oklahoma, Keenan Robinson, or even Sean Spence might still be available. I don’t think I would like Brown at 11/12, I would rather see Ingram if we had to go defense. I would absolutely love Upshaw at 11/12 however. I still can’t imagine him playing WLB however. Upshaw in the first then a faster WLB later would sound good to me.

Would love to see calais campbell in free agency come to us! It would really free us up in the draft to get a stud LB and go RB or possibly WR in the 2nd or vice versa if the right LB is there in the 2nd! 3rd round could either be osweiller if still available or a rotational DT! To me that would be great get young players and steal a guy from a divisonal rival that will give them headaches for the next 4 years or so! Coples is nice but awful risky and mario williams is too spendy! I know this is draft talk but free agency will affect our draft so I guess its ok to throw those otiopns in there! What does every1 else think? Campbell free agency, upshaw 1st, martin or polk 2nd, and best dt that fits our system @ the 3rd round pick! I would be happy myself!

Rob, The team is still committed for the 2 trades to Buffalo and Detroit for this draft right? Since at this point it’s undetermined what picks would be lost for the two trades. Where do you see the trade commitments to Buffalo (Marshawn Lynch) and Detroit (Tyler Polumbus) falling in this draft? Is it likely to be a 4-5 rd. for Lynch? Or will it take out the 6th or one of the 7th rd. picks? Tyler Polumbus would only likely garner a 7th rd. pick right?

Lynch will cost our 5th round pick as per a report today. I think we lose a 7th round pick for Polumbus, but we gained a 7th round pick from Oakland in the Curry deal.
So we have 6 picks, alternating 11/12 from rounds 1-4 and 6 based on the coin flip, and the 17th pick in the 7th round from Oakland.

Tarry – I think the WILL is the one position he’ll go speed over size. Spence is a really talented player and I have no doubt he’ll be on the radar if available. However, if they go DE in R1 as I expect, I really think RB is the direction in R2.

Derek – I’ll get right into Zach Brown soon. He is on the radar in R1 depending on how the board falls. I tend to agree with you overall on Brown, but I think people will be a lot higher on him when they see him run. He has a ton of potential. However, I have to confess I’d much rather go Upshaw/Martin/Linebacker as a R1-3 group. But then I’d probably draft Brock Osweiler at some point too if available.

Richard – Although it was made official yesterday, I thought it was common knowledge Lynch would cost a 5th. It seemed unlikely to me he wouldn’t have triggered whatever needed to fall after his great season to boost the pick. As far as I know, Seattle has a pick in every round in R5 because Polumbus is off-set by the Curry trade.

Bubba Gill – I think that’s the role he’d fit in Seattle. Clemons is a lot more refined and polished but Jones could get there. I still wish they’d considered Jabaal Sheard last year.

Joe – I’m not a Detroit expert and rely on input from fans of other teams. Make some suggestions for me to consider if you don’t like the Glenn pick.

Hey Rob I know that this is really unrelated to your fantastic mock draft(s), couple of things, I think that if Devon Still is still on the board would we take him, second if Brock Osweiler is there in the second round would you really take him, considering that Barkley is coming out next season and I would bet that Seattle trades their 2013 and 14 first rounders and 2013 second round pick to move up. I truly believe Pete and Co are really waiting for Barkley as the final piece. Barkley has to be the one they are waiting for. LOL how delusional is this assumption.

Rob been following you for over a year now but just read and don’t comment. Gotta say that I look forward to reading your mocks and even comments more than any other Hawks stuff. Fairly ignorant of college players in general but from reading you feel much more aware heading into drafts. Thank you for this site. A true highlight for me.

On tape you’ve provided, it looks to me like Upshaw would be one of the best nasty complements out there to our defense. Watching him felt like what i see with the Hawks D at their best. Was fairly bummed thinking the Hawks wouldn’t have a good shot at qb but once I let that go am pretty excited about a number of options. Starting with Upshaw. Beast-mo for our d.

Thanks for the mock. One question: I know you like Dwight Jones and have touted him for a while, but why are you not backing off your round 1 prediction in light of his Senior Bowl performance (which was by all reports rather poor)? I know he has ideal size, but also has inconsistent hands and can disappear at times. It just seems like his stock has fallen, especially with such a good receiver class.

I totally agree with you Peter. Seattle having a shot at Barkley is going to be slim to none, unless he pulls a Jake Locker and has a less than stellar Senior year. Seattle just needs to not put themselves in a hole with a bad deal. Build upon the blocks we have.

People forget we were a handful of plays away from finishing the second half of the year 8-0… with Tarvaris Jackson. Continue the foundation that is there and when the time is right for a QB, we strike.

I would be all for them drafting a QB in the second, but if they don’t want to because they do not like any of them, then trading this year’s pick for an additional next year could put them in a situation like the one that Cleveland is in right now.
Also, getting an additional first does not mean they would ONLY be targeting Barkley, instead they could target either of the top couple of QB’s that come out next year….kinda like RG3.

I have better faith in the local sense of need for the Seahawks than I get from checking out the other national mocks. You guys seem to go along with the possibilities that Rob and Kip have laid out. The local sense of need seems to be outside rush DE/LB, durable RB, QB for competition, and speed LB for the weakside. Six picks to get that job done in whatever combo. The best case scenrio appears to be 1st four picks bring us 1)Courtney Upshaw/Quinton Couples 2)Doug Martin/Chris Polk 3)Brock Osweiler/Kirk Cousins and 4)speed LB.

So Rob, what is the sense on later round speed at linebacker/DE? Who comes in to play in the later rounds for that fast heady stud that also hopefully has size and composure to finish plays? As always, Thank you for laying out an excellent foundation for thought and discussion.

I love your idea Griffin, and I would be all for it if it could happen, but the only way we trade a ’12 second for a ’13 1st is if a fellow GM goes all Josh McDaniels and starts making ridiculous personnel decisions. I highly doubt there is going to be someone in the 2nd round that another team “must have”.

Bubba gill – I think the Seahawks are focussing on edge rushers. They want their version of Aldon Smith, a guy who can bring pressure on key downs, be used in certain defensive looks and moved around. While this team does need a three-technique, I don’t think they’ll target that position in round one. As for Osweiler – I would take him, but I’m not sure this team will. I like Osweiler a lot and I’d invest some faith in him.

Ben – thanks for the kind words and please contribute again in the future. I’m proud that this blog has such great contributors joining in the discussion. It’s a credit to everyone who visits that in four years I’ve only had to ban one person.

Mike – I still believe tape beats anything that happens at the Senior Bowl. I’m not too stubborn to stick to my guns completely, but I do think Jones is still going to surprise some people. I really like the guy.

Griffin – I think it’s extremely unlikely. They will spend their first round pick this year I believe without any moves up, down or into 2013. They want to keep improving the defense and running game this year.

Richard – fantastic question. Keep an eye on Sammy Brown at Houston and also Nigel Bradham at FSU. I will be putting game tape on the blog of a few mid-round LB prospects very soon so stay tuned.

Rob, OMG Sammy Brown!! and he isn’t going to the combine!! Good! Tell em over at Hawkville but nobody else! SSSSSSH. And Vontaze B—I mean Nigel Bradham Holy Hell on Earth, can that guy hit! Wow, good size–speed–all over the field–and hits you into tommorrow! Sorry sentance structure is out the window! I want them both, and all we have to do is draft them, that should be easy. SSSSSSH don’t tell anybody, you don’t think anybody else has seen them yet–right? I mean OMG

Rob I’ve been doing some oddball scouting at positions that aren’t necessarily needs. Much like how Detroit has stockpiled excellent D Lineman to make that their ultimate strength, I was thinking about our secondary. We could essentially attempt to do the same thing. What are your takes on Dwight Bentley and Trumaine Johnson? Quite frankly I believe both could be had post-4th round, and both are long corners with agility and hitting power. With Trufant probably not being retained, we could definitely use a fourth, and most likely a fifth CB. You suspect any chance that our FO is looking to keep adding under-the-radar talent at our greatest position of strength?

Just a quick correction…I never mentioned that they would consider trading their 1st round pick; I mentioned them trading their 2nd round pick for another teams 1st round pick next year (like with Denver…it worked out pretty good).

I don’t see Cleveland trading up – St. Louis and Minnesota don’t seem like candidates for selecting RGIII. In fact, I see Cleveland trading down – again – to perhaps Washington or Miami, and stockpiling picks. Holmgren HAS to realize they are more than a QB away. My feeling about Cleveland is that they either trade up to #1 to pick Luck, or trade down (again), and are the team with the most picks in 2013 and in a great spot to pick up Barkley.

They need a quarterback though Brian, it’s their greatest need. Plus they have the means to do it. Losing one pick to secure Griffin isn’t exactly a huge deal and would allow them to build around RGIII. They’ve appointed an OC who’s used to working with mobile quarterbacks – a major give away IMO. It’s impossible to get Luck and they can’t keep drifting along. They have the opportunity teams like Seattle don’t to get Griffin. I’m almost certain Griffin will be a Brown.

Rob,
This is my first post. I like your site very much. You have great insight and I value your opinion. Thats all you can ask for right?
My question is: What do you think about the Seahawks drafting Bruce Irvin? Obviously not in the first. Where do you think his value lies? He seems like a dangerous pass rusher in the Aldon Smith mold. In his youtube highlight video alone he shows excellent motor, speed, anticipation/jump, swim/rip and inside move.
Also he is a Junior and PC/JS have shown in Earl Thomas that they are not afraid of underclassmen.
Thanks
Nick

Hey Nick glad to have you on board and please feel free to post more often.

I really like Irvin, but his stock is really measured. He didn’t receive an invite to the Senior Bowl (he’s a former JUCO transfer, now a senior), which is telling. He struggled in WVU’s bizarre three man fronts last year as an every down guy, but looked good again in spot-duty on third downs. Teams are always looking for specialist pass rushers at the moment so I think he could easily be a R3-4 type guy and he should be on Seattle’s radar. I like the guy a lot though, should have some interest.

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