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Who Becomes An Idol Most?

The first CD by Ruben Studdard, the ''velvet teddy bear'' champion of the second season of Fox television's ''American Idol,'' will make its debut at No. 1 on the next Billboard Top 200 albums chart, good news for an entertainment franchise that has stumbled this year with some of its spinoffs.

Mr. Studdard's ''Soulful'' (J-Records) sold 417,000 copies in its first week, according to Nielsen SoundScan, which released sales tallies yesterday.

That figure was nearly 200,000 copies fewer than were sold in a comparable period by the man whom Mr. Studdard beat out on ''American Idol'' earlier this year, Clay Aiken. Mr. Aiken's best-selling debut, ''Measure of a Man,'' was released in October.

Mr. Studdard's album, a mix of mainstream R&B with hip-hop touches from producers like Irv Gotti and Swizz Beatz, was the only album to debut in the Top 10 this week, despite limited radioplay for Mr. Studdard.

With the success that Mr. Aiken and the show's first-season winner, Kelly Clarkson, have had in making the transition from television personalities to pop singers, the ''American Idol'' franchise has apparently allayed concerns that it may be faltering after bombs at the movies (''From Justin to Kelly''), on television (''American Juniors'') and in record racks (the debut album by the first-season runner-up, Justin Guarini).

Mr. Studdard and Ms. Clarkson recently received Grammy nominations, Mr. Studdard for best male R&B vocal performance for the song ''Superstar,'' and Ms. Clarkson for best female pop vocal performance for ''Miss Independent.''

Industry executives, music retailers, Fox and advertisers are betting the ''American Idol'' juggernaut will prove fruitful for several years. The next season of the show, an elimination contest in which aspiring stars sing before a panel of three judges and then submit to the votes of viewers in later rounds, begins on Jan. 19. The winner and runner-up receive one-record contracts with Bertelsmann's RCA Music Group, with options for additional releases. Clive Davis, chairman of RCA, said that he had albums from Ms. Clarkson and Mr. Studdard on tap for 2004, along with two CD's from Mr. Aiken.

''We worked hard with them to come up with material that would compete on record terms,'' said Mr. Davis, who served as the producer or executive producer on all four albums by the ''American Idol'' contestants. ''We used the TV show not for a soundtrack album for a television artist, but to really become recording artists in their own.''

No clear formula for album success has emerged. But some of the music industry's bright spots this year have come from ''American Idol.'' Since its release in April, ''Thankful,'' by Ms. Clarkson, has sold 1.8 million copies, and ''Measure of a Man'' has sold 1.7 million. Both are among the Top 20 albums this year in terms of sales. A recent compilation record, ''American Idol: The Great Holiday Classics,'' has sold 305,000 copies.

By contrast, Mr. Guarini's album, ''Justin Guarini,'' has sold just 135,000 copies since its release in June. Those disappointing numbers prompted RCA to drop Mr. Guarini from the label. With albums due out next year by winners from all three seasons of the show, RCA does not want to crowd that field with Mr. Guarini if he cannot connect with listeners, said an executive affiliated with Bertelsmann who would speak only anonymously. ''You just can't sign everybody.''

There is no consensus about why Mr. Guarini's album did poorly while the other ''American Idol'' participants have taken off, but timing could be a factor.

Mr. Guarini's album was released 10 months after he was voted runner-up in the first season, which was the longest break between show finale and store arrival among the four winners. ''The culture moves so fast, digests itself so fast, that you've lost quite a bit of momentum,'' said Mark Andrejevic, an assistant professor of communication studies at the University of Iowa and author of the new book ''Reality TV: The Work of Being Watched.''

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Mr. Davis said that the lag was caused by filming ''From Justin to Kelly,'' which starred Mr. Guarini and Ms. Clarkson. The movie, a beach comedy, was released by 20th Century Fox on June 20, 10 days after Mr. Guarini's album arrived in stores. Any synergy between the two products was purely negative. The movie, which cost $12 million, was universally panned and generated just $5 million in receipts during its first month, according to Boxofficemojo.com.

The order in which the albums were released might have also played a role. Issuing a disc by the runner-up first, as RCA did with Mr. Aiken, arguably builds momentum for the coming release from the ''American Idol'' winner. Holding Mr. Guarini's album until two months after the release of Ms. Clarkson's underscored his ranking as secondary in the contest.

There is no pattern for the release order, Mr. Davis said. The release dates for ''American Idol'' CD's depends on how fast artists can record and what contracts for touring or other projects they signed before the show.

Even Mr. Davis conceded that it is difficult to predict hitmakers based on the results of the show's singing contest. ''It really depends on who the winner is and why they're winning,'' he said. ''You can only cross your fingers and hope it coincides with real talent.''

Gary Carter, a media consultant, said that ''American Idol'' should continue to mint music stars, provided that Fox does not overexpose the show by broadcasting it too frequently, as ABC did with ''Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.'' While executive director for programs at Endemol Entertainment, Mr. Carter helped make ''Big Brother'' and ''Who Wants to Be a Millionaire'' successes worldwide.

One reason the show is successful ''is it allows the audience an element of control over the outcome, and for the younger generation today that's very important,'' he said.

But it is unclear whether made-for-television stars like Mr. Studdard, Mr. Aiken and Ms. Clarkson can sustain their success as they recede from the Fox spotlight.

Long-term artists develop careers by making an emotional connection with listeners through their work, said Andy Slater, president and chief executive of Capitol Records, who has produced albums by Macy Gray, the Wallflowers and Warren Zevon. While the contestants on ''American Idol'' form an emotional connection with the show's viewers, it is a different type of relationship.

''You root for singers like you would root for a football team,'' he said. ''I don't know how that will resonate over time.''

Lou Pearlman, the chief executive of Trans Continental Companies and the management impresario behind the early success of Backstreet Boys and 'N Sync, said: ''I think it gives them a jump-start. But it's up to the artist. If they're really good, if they have great songs and great producers and writers behind them, and good management, then they can. But if they don't have all what it takes in the industry, what you get is just really a TV show out of it.''