HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

A common bearish argument making the rounds over the past year goes something like this:

"Stocks have been rising for over eight years; they can't keep going up."

As shown in the NYSE Composite chart below, stocks rallied for eight years off a major low in 1974, broke out to a new all-time high, and then subsequently rallied for an additional 18 years. In present day, stocks rallied off the 2009 major low and broke out in 2017 making a new all-time high.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?

Given humans tend to extrapolate the recent past into the future, many expect the next major move for the markets in 2018 is a 50%-plus bear market similar to the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 periods. That is not what happened after the similar historical setup in the early 1980s. Instead of following the 1964-1980 script, stocks tacked on an additional gain of over 700% (see chart below).

BUT, WHAT ABOUT VALUATIONS?

If we are to take the "all the charts are meaningless because of valuations" argument seriously, we must convince ourselves that valuations were a useful timing tool between 1964 and the stock market peak in 2000.

A FAIR AND FACT-BASED ASSESSMENT

In order to make a prudent assessment of the real-world utility of valuations, we must review the information that was available as stocks marched higher between the end of 1982 and 2000. For example, when stocks broke out to a new all-time high in 1982, the median Shiller PE or CAPE ratio looking backwards (1881-1982) was 14.83.

This week's video takes a detailed look at two periods, 1992-2000 and 1956-2000, to evaluate the effectiveness of attempting to use the Shiller PE or CAPE ratio as a market timing tool. In the video, Shiller PEs are reviewed on stock charts, allowing you to draw your own fact-based conclusions.

To view the video in full screen mode, click the square icon in the lower right corner of the video player. To exit full screen mode, hit the Esc key (escape).

LONG-TERM MEANS LONG-TERM

Just as there was normal and sometimes gut-wrenching volatility between 1983 and 2000, even if better than expected outcomes occur over the next 3-20 years, volatility will be part of the equation.

Important Disclosures: While the CCM Market Model is based on sound economic and investment principles, there is no guarantee any of the objectives will be met in the future. The terms odds and probabilities also speak to uncertain outcomes. Risks are covered in more detail in the CCM Client Agreement and LPOA. The performance information presented in certain charts or tables represent backtested performance from December 31, 2002 to December 31, 2017, using the model to select ETFs and adjust portfolio allocations based on market conditions. Backtested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the model portfolios been available over the relevant period. Front-end screens were added to the model in May 2017, and subsequently backtested in the second half of 2017. Backtested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Backtested performance results have inherent limitations, some of which are described herein. Backtested returns do not represent the performance results of actual trading and are calculated through the retroactive application of the advisor's model portfolio configuration, designed with the benefit of hindsight. Since backtested performance results do not represent actual trading, they may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on the decision-making of the advisor, if the advisor was managing the client assets. No representation is being made that the advisor's strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses like those shown. In fact, there are frequently significant material differences between backtested performance results and performance results subsequently achieved by following a strategy. In addition, backtested performance does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of backtested performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. The backtested performance results shown reflect the deduction of: (i) an average annual asset management fee of 0.87%; and (ii) estimated transaction fees and other expenses that a client would experience. The results portrayed reflect the reinvestment of dividends, interest and other income, as appropriate. Backtested performance results assume weekly rebalancing at the end of each week. It is important to understand the assumption of weekly rebalancing has an impact on the annual and weekly returns shown. For weekly rebalancing, the weekly return is calculated with the assumption that the portfolio is perfectly in balance at the beginning of each week. In actual portfolios, however, rebalancing occurs at no set time, and such actions are dependent on both market conditions and individual client liquidity inflows and outflows, along with the cost impact of such transactions on the overall portfolio. As with any investment strategy, there is potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. CCM does not guarantee any minimum level of investment performance or the success of any client account, model portfolio, or investment strategy. All investments involve risk and investment recommendations will not always be profitable. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtested results do not guarantee future results. Results are compared to the performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) for informational purposes only. The advisor's investment program does not mirror the S&P 500 Index and the volatility of the advisor's investment program may be materially different. The securities or other instruments included in the S&P 500 Index are not necessarily included in the advisor's portfolio and criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index are different than those for investment by the advisor. The performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF was obtained from published sources believed to be reliable, but which are not warranted as to accuracy or completeness. All references to the S&P 500 Index ETF SPY are to the total return form of the ETF, meaning the impact of dividends is included. Unless noted otherwise, the returns of indices presented herein do not reflect fees or transaction costs, nor net dividends, if any. A description of each index follows: The S&P 500 Index, a diversified index that includes the stocks of 500 U.S. listed, large capitalization companies in major industries. Past performance, including hypothetical past performance, is not indicative of future performance. There can be no assurance that the advisor will achieve its objectives. Any performance information, market analysis or data or other information is not warranted by Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM or Ciovacco Capital) as to completeness or accuracy express or implied, and such information is subject to change without notice. CCM's investment strategies may change from time to time based on market conditions and enhancements to its investment methods and strategy without further notice. This website and the information contained herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a complete description of our investment services, funds or strategies. The data in this website have been prepared by CCM and have not been reviewed, compiled or audited by an independent public accountant. The views expressed on this website represent the current, good faith views of the authors at the time of publication. Please be aware that these views are subject to change at any time and without notice of any kind. CCM assumes no duty and does not undertake to update these views or any forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, or any decision or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. Investments: Not FDIC Insured - No Bank Guarantee - May Lose Value. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities. Before investing, consider your investment objectives and CCM's fees and other expenses. CCM's services are designed to assist clients in achieving discrete financial goals. They are not intended to provide comprehensive tax advice or financial planning with respect to every aspect of a client's financial situation and do not incorporate specific investments that clients hold elsewhere. For more details, see our Form ADV Part 2 and other disclosures. Not an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities in jurisdictions where CCM is not registered.