The next two months at Flhurricane, we'll be slowly moving over to the new 2002 look, which isn't all that different from the current one. We are changing the way talkback will work which will allow us to manage them better, and add a bunch of things for that.

The automated weather bits will change little, but we hope to have everything running by hurricane season.

Right now, we are still using the old system, and feel free to comment.

This season, I think, will be very different from the last few, so we hope to be ready.

if i recall collectly it was a more transient feature than qbo that got erin.. the tutt or an upper low or something. qbo doesnt play much of a direct role in hurricane shearing, its more of a climatological thing that affects the relative overall shear rather than any case and point. at least thats the way i understand it. but yeah, there was a prevalence of fast moving systems that outran their convection, and mid latitude systems that got ripped up at various stages in their existences. the strength of the azores high was also a key factor, as it contributed to the relative strength of the shear by ramming waves and lows along at breakneck speeds. recall that there weren't many intense storms this year at low latitude. dont think there were any below 20N.
by the way jim, agree with the five day warning skepticism. though.. i wouldnt be against a 'dont take me seriously' sort of advisory just to give everybody a heads up. as if media hype doesnt do that already.
welcome radm vince. yes, we are zealous. yes, we are trying. if you are a voice of moderation, pleased to have you. even if you are a retired squid. (6th fleet is mediterranean, right?)moderation is a rare thing on this site when its august and something big is threatening.

Actually, NHC has been testing this model for a couple of years - note also that the article said 2003, i.e., not yet for this season. A lot of private industry forecasters already push the envelope to 5 days (and beyond) and some are rather accurate at it. Things have been mighty quiet lately in the southpac. Welcome aboard Vince! This is one of the top hurricane chat sites on the net - novice to pro, but all are welcome. Most of these folks really know there stuff and many provide excellent new links to great data sources. Mike & John certainly provide all of us with an excellent forum for discussion.
Cheers,
ED

the date that NOAA releases its 2002 tropical forecast? Has Gray made any press announcements that adjusted his forecast numbers. Rumor has it that he'll lower it...how do these people know? Reason I'm asking is to find out why.....if his forecast is lowered. Do we see a stronger than anticipated El Nino or weaker. SSTs off the western coast of S. America are rising and are beginning to look like March '97 temps. But Atlantic temps are high also. If Atlantic SST anomalies are high, can they offset effects of warmer EPAC temps, particularly if El Nino is marginal

Did some searching and found when forecast predictions will be issued.
4/02
6/02
8/02 Couldn't find any press releases, I'am thinking rumors. As far as tropical Atlantic/ El Nino are concerned, I'am clueless to what is going to happen. All pending on the strength of El Nino. Still a couple of months to watch SST trends. Hope predictions above help.

First, I will begin my ENSO update with the latest model forecasts. About half of the Climate Prediction Center models are forecasting further development of El Nino. They are forecasting a moderate El Nino to develop. The other have are predicting just slightly more development of El Nino over the next few months. In fact, a few of the models are not even forecasting much more development of El Nino for the remainder of the year! Here are a few model forecast links:

So far, there are no signs of El Nino besides the fact that there are slightly above average sst anomolies in the EPAC. Most are still only in the one to two degress above normal range. In fact, we are still seeing some minor fluctuations in the EPAC and conditions are still basically neutral.

I am predicting a very weak El Nino episode. I also believe that the minor fluctations that we are still seeing, will begin to diminish in one to two months. That is when we will begin to see the true signs of a WEAK El Nino beginning to take shape. However, we may not begin to see a major chane in the weather pattern until 3-5 months. Since I am forecasting only a weak El Nino, we may not even see any major or dramatic changes in the current pattern. In addition, we will still see at least some neutral conditions.

The eastern Pacific should see an above average season sue to the warm sst anomolies as well as the WPAC. Another reason why we could see an above average season in these two regions, is due to the Madden Julian Oscillation.

Typically, during an El Nino phase, we see a lot of shear in the Atlantic Basin. However, we usually do not see westerly winds during El Nino. This year, the QBO winds are forecasted to be westerly. So we have unfavorable shear due to EL Nino but then we have favorable WBO winds blowing from the west. So I am forecasting neutral conditions in the Atlantic (Shear wise)One of the most important areas to look for shear levels is in the eastern Caribbean. This is where the TUTT is located. I believe the TUTT will be slightly stronger this year than last year but still not as strong as it was during the 2000 season. In addition, we still have warmer than average ssts located off the coast of Africa. Sure there has been a recent cool down BUT, we still have to wait for any possible trends. Another are that has caught some attention, is the Gulf of Mexico. The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf were well below average a month ago. But with Summer approaching, those waters are now beginning to warm up. By June, we could see above normal sea surface temperatures all across the GOM.

Another thing that I have noticed so far this offseason, is the low number of troughs that have been exiting the east coast. Typically during El Nino years, we see less of a chance of a tropical system striking the east coast. However, in my opinion there is a better chance of an east coast landfall this year. Take a look at this:

On this map, you see low than average pressure just off the east coast but,you can also see abover average pressure readings in the central Atlantic. Remember that the Bermuda high strengthens as time goes by. So by June, we could have high pressure building from the east Atlantic all the way to the western Atlantic with a trough situated OVER the east coast. This would increases the chances of an east coast landfall.

My conclusion is that we will see a very WEAK El Nino this season. The flucuations in the EPAC will not begin to diminish until May or June. It will take at least a little while longer for El Nino to have any impact on the overall pattern since I am forecasting such a weak episode. So far, I believe that El Nino will be too weak to play a major role on the number of Atlantic storms we will see this upcoming season. In addition, there are many other smaller factors that we need to also monitor that are still pointing to an above average season. One for example, is the above average ssts off the COA. I am also forecasting this El Nino episode to be rather short-lived. In fact, after doing some research on past ENSO events, I believe that neutral conditions will return by May of 2003! This would be just in time for the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. We could see some signs of a La Nina by September of 2003.

The Tropical Weather Watchers 2002 Atlantic hurricane season forecast will be released May 15th, when my new site opens.

Hello! Hope everyone had a quiet and peaceful first part of the year. Yesterday we got our first *spring* t-storms, although it wasn't very heavy or widespread, it was weird because I haven't heard thunder in so long, LOL!

Welcome to all the new posters! I look forward to discussing all of the pressure readings, NHC discussions, etc with everyone this year! :-)

It's always good to see someone from my neck of the woods on here. That was a great analysis, and it's hard to argue with any of it. The eastpac SST charts definitely are trending upwads (with occasional spikes) though.

What does all this mean for this year's season? It's still too early for me to come out with a morning line. Like all the other prognosticators on this site, I think 2002 will be different from the last couple of seasons, but I'm not yet convinced how. Last year I predicted Flordia as a bullseye but the Gulf of Mexico as a hotbed of activity. I think I called for 6 storms in GoM with 5 US Landfalls. We ended up somewhere close to that (with the dual landfall of Allison and the couple of unnamed systems), but I didn't really verify. I do think we'll get a scare or two in the Central Gulf coast because we're overdue - especially in south LA.

so i only started posting here in the summer of 2000, but why not go further back. i started really watching the dr. gray predictions closely probably in 1995 (at the ripe old age of 14), when we were having that incredible year. since then there have been lots of above normal predictions, every spring i watch as another monster season is forecast.. and fall into the same trap every time, it seems. yes, this year will probably be above average, if only slightly. does that equate to increased danger? it seems not. rather than seeing another massive 14-storm prediction, i'd much rather see climate analog years weather patterns over the eastern u.s. and northwest atlantic, and where the height anomalies tend to be. cause we all know by now, if theres a big upper trough in the northwest atlantic all august and september, 15 named storms wont mean jack.

We are doing well, thanks! Sounds as if you and yours are doing well also...we are getting ready to move (not out of town, just out of this house) soon, so if you don't see me when you think I should be here, that's why. Watch. I'll get all set up in the new house, and this will be the year we get hit by every freaking storm that comes even near us. ;-)

I agree 100%, Colleen. I think we should be carefull what we wish for this year. Strange that you're moving into a new house...lol. I do sorta get a feeling that this will be the year we get a modest hurricane instead of a wimpy ts...but I try to keep to gut feelings out of it as much as I can.
Kevin

I believe that continued above normal cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin will lead ultimately to landfall of a dangerous storm. Statistically it's impossible to continue in this pattern without getting hit by one sooner or later. Don't know when or where, but it's gonna come whether a trough is on the east coast or a bubble of high pressure. Andrew was nearly a fish until the trough passed it by and high pressure built in shunting it to the WSW from a position north of PR. It's all in the timing. Talk of TUTTs and Azores/Bermuda highs is interesting and can explain why things occur, but when it comes right down to it each storm setup is unique since so many variables come into play that make paths of these storms different. Time is on the side of a big one coming soon (relatively speaking). On another note, I am getting a bit concerned about the El Nino influence this season. I as stated in a post a last week, the warming of the Pacific waters along the west coast of S. America looked strikingly familiar to the 1997 snapshot of March 15. Dr. Dewpoint posted the same thing today. But he pointed out that the N. Pacific waters are cooler this year than in '97. Will that keep a strong EL Nino influence in check this summer? Don't know...have to watch it's progress. If it's a weak El Nino, we could see a season along the lines of 1995/96, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. Two more months to go! Cheers!!

I was just wondering...hasn't it been said that when the Pacific season is more active than the Atlantic that the season would be slower than normal? If that is correct, than based on the information were seeing (warmer Atlantic basin temps than in the Pacific) than we will see a busy season.

If I'm wrong, feel free to let me know, but I was sure that somewhere I read that.

1.Many times it is true that when the Pacific is very active, the Atlantic is quiet and vice-versa. An example:1995. Pacific had 9 storms (I think) and the Atlantic had 19. Strong La Nina that year inhibited much Pacific development. Last year, OVERALL conditions in the Atlantic in the Pacific were about the same, so we saw Pacific and Atlantic seasons that were very similar, by the numbers anyway. This year, the Pacific should be slightly more active than the Atlantic.
2.Well, John, I really don't know what you're trying to poke at. It seems to me that you are just picking out years and showing how those numbers in the first year you picked decreased compared with other years you picked. I think this is an invalid way to look at the increase in Atlantic tc activity. One thing that is positive that I wanted to point out though, is that the years you showed were in the 50's and this was a time when the Atlantic was very active.

Anyway, no matter how much of an activity spike the Atlantic takes over the next 10-25 years, once we get a U.S. major hurricane finally (which should be in a couple of years, if not this year), things are gonna go to hell real fast (in terms of U.S. majors making landfall). My 2 cents. Commments welcome!
Kevin A. Budd
Orlando, Florida