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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Hyping crime: the politics of false trends

Every generation of reporters, editors, and politicians, I suppose, must learn for themselves not to draw conclusions from short-term crime statistics. There are too many variables that go into them and too much lag time in reporting to draw valid conclusions from short-term crime spikes or, for that matter, reductions in crime. Especially regarding serious violent crimes, like murders, the fact that you're dealing with very small numbers can skew short-term analyses and suggest false trends that may not reflect what's really happening. Lately, this sort of news coverage seems to be all the rage, to the point where even our Texas outlets have picked up on the tactic.

The most recent strain of infatuation with this rookie journalistic error, from Grits' observation, began a few years ago when federal courts ordered California's prison system to decarcerate because of overcrowding. The papers soon filled with anecdotes of violent crimes that cops and prosecutors attributed to the policy and suggestions that the federal order was responsible for a crime spike. But when the annualized data came out, that trend never materialized. The following year, CA voters eliminated the state's three-strikes law and a similar hue and cry about increased crime ensued. But the annualized data didn't bear that out, either. They're doing the same thing now over Prop 47, which prioritized treatment and changed certain drug crimes to misdemeanors.

The trick seems to be to engage in demagoguery for as long as possible during the period before official numbers are reported, which is a rather long delay. (For example, 2015 UCR data hasn't been reported for Texas yet, so we can for now only talk about data through 2014.) Then, when the numbers come out, if murders go up, critics get to say "I told you so." If they go down, the same folks give law enforcement credit while leaving the public with a false impression that crime is worse than it really is. This brand of coverage helps explain why the public thinks crime is rising, even when it's falling.

The tactic seemed to nationalize and metastasize after Heather MacDonald began touting her theory of a "Ferguson Effect," which attributed a crime spike predicted based on six months of data to police officers intentionally refusing to do their jobs, effectively as a sort of perverse form of civil disobedience over alleged disrespect they'd received from the Black Lives Matter protests, etc.. Grits would have thought it insulting to claim police officers would intentionally tolerate crime because some protester dinged their ego - it seems like an admission of low integrity to acknowledge that mentality - but somehow MacDonald spun that as a pro-cop view and continues to defend it.

Here's the truth: Nobody can prove she's wrong, but she can't prove she's right. Even if crime does increase when the 2015 numbers come out, what does that mean, and to what should we attribute it? Crime has declined for a couple of decades, but at some point it will reach a floor. When it does, it will rise again. At that point, what sound like scary large increases may not mean much from a statistical perspective. For example, here are Texas' murder rates since 1990 according to annual Uniform Crime Reports the state sends to the feds:

Texas' murder rate declined by 71 percent from 1991 to 2014. (If you want to go back further, our murder rate since 1960 maxed out at 16.9 per 100,000 residents in 1980.)

If Texas' 2015 murder rate jumps to 5.4 per 100,000 people, that would be a 22.7 percent year-over-year increase. Newspaper headlines could and would breathlessly tout a "double digit" increase in statewide murder rates. But the rate would still be 65 percent lower than in 1991.

So when the Dallas Morning News reports an "alarming violent crime increase" because of a few months of data, that's more a tried and true tactic for selling newspapers than an honest assessment of risks to the public. Even sillier is the local union's comment that, “Violent crime is up and murder is up and it’s all because of bad police management.” If violent crime is up, the reasons are far more complex than that. And unless it goes up and stays up, it's not necessarily something about which government or the press should overreact.

Thanks for the link, 7:40, but don't be a prick re: BLM. Be respectful. What's the point of dissing people who are mad about the same stuff you are?

Just a thought: Maybe BLM folks don't care about your concerns because you so adamantly disrespect theirs? Seriously: Where does that snarky emotional content come from? I keep seeing Grits commenters who seemingly have an interest in criminal justice reform treating BLM like a punching bag, and I honestly don't understand why. BLM barely exists organizationally in Texas, for heaven's sake - at least not under that name. You're basically complaining about people from St. Louis.

Don't know if this is a good place to ask this question, but Lamar 6th District court judge resigned on March 24th. According to all related items I have found he was arrested at one time for solicitation of prostitution and was placed on probation. There are over 700 cases pending in 6th District court now. How was he able to be able to run for judge after such charges. This is in Paris Texas. Texarkana Gazette carried the story.

blm is a total lie. You don't be a prick grits, nobody cares what the liers think they are irrelevant. But, San Fransisco State University has been a light in racism with a racist assaulting a young man because of his hair. Thank God for the video camera! Lieing POS caught again.

BLM is a movement made up of a lot of different folks, 3:31, you can't paint with a broad brush. And why should I care about San Francisco U - this is a Texas blog. What has BLM done in Texas to offend you? Be specific.

Was not a shot a BLM. Was meant to be a shot at the press. That's why I put it in your trends thread. I got no problem with BLM. But the reality is we are all in this together.

This nonsense in Caldwell County went down in January of 2015. DA saw the video 9 or ten days after it happened. Not a Peep in the press..I remember when the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ put the fear of God in local LEOs. Do you think Encinia and friends would have pulled their stunt on Ms. Bland if the United States Attorney had hauled it on down to Caldwell and skinned those sonbitches?

@ all who throw dings, barbs, and disses at people different from you. You are showing your ignorance and bigotry for all the world to see. You point your fingers at others, belittle and make fun of them yet offer nothing to counter except derision and divisiveness. You are pretty much insignificant as far as I'm concerned up until the point, if ever, you decide to look at yourself honestly and admit you're wrong about so many things that you hold dear and true.

Stop basing your view of the world on what your daddy told you. Grow up and be an adult and search for real answers in the world that is your reality, not based on someone else's who seeks to fill your head with nonsense and self-serving only unto themselves.

Grits has provided a platform for all to learn about the Texas criminal justice system. I think it has done an outstanding job thus far. It is not a platform to spew thinly veiled hints of racism and bigotry, or to promote dissension. Lord knows our "justice" system has many problems that need addressing, time spent dealing with bigots and fear-mongering zealots robs us of precious energy and time.

You damn right about one thing, I don't want to be in the kitchen that you frequent. Any person who advocates what I mentioned in my comment is a fool, and a dangerous one at that. Unfortunately for you, this isn't your kitchen so whatever distasteful vitriol you're trying to sale here won't get you too far.

You are exactly the type of person that my comment was describing as being ignorant and without an ability to think for oneself. I doubt you get any of this though, you're too busy listening to your pep leaders who fill your empty head with nonsense. Wake up and examine things independently, I guarantee you'll see things differently from what you're having shoved into your ears.

murder rate per 100,000 is just another bs statistic. when population grows the percentage or ratio will go down. if the pop grows really really fast, the % or ratio will drop even more. and vice versa. using this stat metric for murder rate is bs stuff used by demagogues

Demographics are generally expressed as rates (i.e., occurrences per 100,000). That is so differently sized populations can be compared. Using raw numbers, St Louis (159 murders/manslaughters in 2014) looks a lot safer than Chicago (411). But, adjusting for population size makes it clear that the smaller St Louis (50 homicides/manslaughters per 100,000) is really a lot worse than the larger Chicago (15 per 100,000).

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