Beau's Weather Blog

Let's Talk Weather...

September 6, 2007

There are strange drops falling outside my window this
morning. I am not sure what to make of this. Upon
closer inspection it appears that WATER is falling from the sky.
I know it is hard to believe. I checked my sprinklers and
they are OFF. This must be what is called rain. I
have grabbed my meteorology books and poured through them all
morning - yes this is RAIN. A rare watery substance that
falls from clouds to the earth below. Don't panic people
this is considered NORMAL in some parts of the country.
Try to stay calm! Lone Oak picked up 0.32" of rainfall today.
The most rain we have had since late July.

Chuck Doswell's Home Page - Want to learn more about the
world of meteorology?

One of the pioneers of tornado study, Chuck Doswell has an
amazing web-page full of informative commentary and information.
You can visit his site
at this link. Well worth your time and effort if you
are in pursuit of a deeper knowledge about the weather and those
who forecast it.

____________________________________________________________

Living in Massac County, Illinois
- on top of a hill

When I was a little boy, I lived on top of a nice hill
in Massac County. From this hill you could see the
surrounding countryside. Mile after mile of fields, hills,
houses, and roads. Perhaps this is one reason that I am so
interested in weather today. That and the big blizzards of
the late 1970s! I was just a kid when those snowstorms
pummeled the Ohio Valley. Even though I was young I will
never forget them. Snowdrifts were up and over my head!
It was a kids fantasy come true. No school for over a
week. More snow than a kid knew what to do with.
Trapped in our house unable to get down the snow covered lane.
It was a winter wonderland gone wild.

In bad weather living on top of a hill is the
best, you can see the storms coming and going. The storms
would blow in and shake the house with their ferocious winds.
I would peer up over the ledge of the window, in my sisters
bedroom where we took shelter, and watch the tree in the front
yard whipping back and fourth. You could feel the wind on
the house. I felt scared and excited at the same time.
I loved storms. I have no idea why I loved storms…I just
loved them. I loved to watch the lightning late at night
while sitting out on the front porch. The warm breeze
blowing in my face, the distant rumble of thunder, the sound of
rain approaching through the cornfields. All of this
helped spark my interested in meteorology. Perhaps
one day I can find another hill like that. A place to
watch the sun setting in the west…and rising in the east.

A line of severe and occasionally tornadic thunderstorms
are approaching our western counties. This area of storms
should move across Southeast Missouri through the evening and
Southern Illinois as well. Portions of Western Kentucky
could see activity after 7:30 p.m.

“While we can’t officially call it a La Niña yet, we expect that
this pattern will continue to develop during the next three
months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Niña event later
this year,” said Mike Halpert, acting deputy director of the
Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface
temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
that occur every three to five years. NOAA declares the onset of
a La Niña event when the three-month average sea-surface
temperature departure exceeds -0.5 degrees Celsius (-0.9 degrees
Fahrenheit) in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5
degrees North and 5 degrees South and 170 degrees West - 120
degrees West].

Showers and heavy thunderstorms moving into the region...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms is approaching
are area from Missouri. This line of storms will continue
to push east through the day. Some of the storms could be
strong or ever severe with high winds and isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall is going to be a threat through the day.

Paducah Radar and 5 Day Rainfall Forecast

Tropical Depression Forming?

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB

“Mother Nature is once again keeping all of us on our
toes,” reveals Editor and Philom.,Peter Geiger, “ we know she
likes to throw curve balls at us from time to time and this
winter it looks as though she’s going to reveal a possible split
personality.”

The 2008 Farmers’ Almanac long-range forecasts are calling for colder
than normal conditions for the eastern half of the country –
chiefly those areas east of the Mississippi –with snowier than
normal conditions expected.

For the western half of the country - mainly those areas west of the
Mississippi – the overall winter will be milder than normal,
with near or below normal precipitation. Quite a change from
last year, when cold and stormy weather came blasting.

“This is not to say that there won’t be any snow in the North Central
region,” shares Geiger, “but we do feel that overall Mother
Nature is showing no mercy to the east and being a little more
forgiving in the west.”

The 2008 Farmers’ Almanac predicts that skiers in eastern New York and
New England will enjoy some great conditions (click
here for our skiing outlook). The winter should also average
as much as three degrees below normal down most of the Atlantic
Coast, from New England through the Mid-Atlantic and the
Piedmont into the Southeast. Cold conditions are on tap for the
Southeast, with at least four cold frosts predicted all the way
to Florida.

Cold and snowy weather should also prevail over the Great Lakes region.
Even as far south as the central and eastern Gulf Coast,
unseasonably chilly temperatures will prevail. In contrast, the
Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest desert, and the
Pacific Coast should enjoy a relatively mild and somewhat drier
than normal winter overall. For some locations, the amount of
wintertime precipitation – rain or snow – could average from one
quarter to as much as one half below the seasonal norm. Quite a
contrast to last year.

And near and along the boundary zone between the mild,
tranquil West and the cold, stormy East, we look for some
large-scale weather vacillations: from wintry to spring like and
back to wintry, almost like a meteorological pendulum undergoing
a series of pretty wild swings.

THE REST OF THE YEAR . . .
Spring looks cool and somewhat wet for many areas. Across Tornado Alley
in the nation’s heartland, 2008 should be an unusually active
season.

Summer will be uniformly warmer than normal across much of the nation.
Precipitation will average near or somewhat below normal, except
over much of the central U.S. where higher than normal rainfall
will occur. Parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic in
particular will see occasional bouts of very heavy rainfall,
from heavy showery rains and locally strong thunderstorms, and
in part generated by tropical activity (see below). Heavier than
normal rainfall may also fall over some of the Plains and
Rockies. In contrast, we are forecasting much lower than normal
precipitation amounts along the Pacific Coast. Cooler and drier
weather should take hold during the fall, followed by a spell of
cold and unsettled conditions in November and December.

We expect an active tropical season in 2008, with the Gulf Coast directly
in the crosshairs for hurricanes in mid-July, mid-August, and
mid-September. The associated tropical moisture from such
systems is likely to flow northward, creating a threat of
excessive rainfall over many eastern locations. The traditional
peak of the hurricane season occurs on September 10.

September 8, 2007

Extremely heavy rainfall is still falling across portions
of Missouri. Some areas have already received 5-10 inches
of rain. Incredible amounts for the drought stricken
areas. Meanwhile, this area has not received nearly that
much. We have picked up less than an inch from this entire
event. It appears that heavier rain will be possible today
and tonight across Paducah. I will hold out hope that the
much need rains will actually make it into my county.

Rainfall Totals From Springfield, MO and Paducah,
KY

Gabrielle continues to churn off the Southeast Coast...

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle continues to move slowly
west/northwest towards the Carolinas this morning. Maximum
sustained winds are only 45 mph. The main impact from this
storm will be beach erosion and some locally heavy rains.
A tropical storm warnings has been issued from Surf City North
Carolina northward to the North Carolina/Virginia Border.

Gabrielle Forecast Path

Rain moving into Lone Oak and Paducah...

My tower cam is WET this afternoon! About time!

2 pm - Paducah, KY Radar

There has been a thread started concerning the heavy
rainfall across Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois. The
thread can be found
here on EasternUSwx.

____________________________________________________________

Paducah, Kentucky National Weather
Service Office Announces A Regional Customer Service Workshop...

The
National Weather Service in PaducahKentucky
cordially invites you to our first ever Customer
Service Workshop!This workshop is an
unprecedented event, which will give you the best
opportunity to learn more about the different
weather and water products and services from the
National Weather Service. These products and
services can be used to benefit your decision making
process in your day to day operations.

At this workshop:

***You will learn about
many different types of information we can offer,
from weather forecasts to severe weather information
to navigating our extensive website.

***We will be seeking
information from a wide variety of you that we
serve, to help us understand what we need to do to
improve our products and services to you.

***You will have plenty of
opportunity to advise us of your needs and how we
can better serve you. Go ahead – state your claim -
tell us what needs to be changed, added or done
better!

We are here for you and
anxious to learn about how we can make improvements
to our agency based on your input. Numerous staff
members of the National Weather Service in Paducah
will be available to answer questions and gather
information from you. This is a free workshop
and will be followed by our annual winter weather
workshop during the afternoon.

Attached to this email, you
will find the agenda and directions to the workshop
that we thought would be closest to you depending on
which state you reside/work in. However, you are
more than welcome to choose whichever workshop works
best for you. If you would like directions to
another location or have any questions, please email
Christine.Wielgos@noaa.gov
or Ricky.Shanklin@noaa.gov.

Important:
You will need to register online for this workshop
via the following address:

Tropical Storm Gabrielle...evening

Gabrielle continues to move towards the northwest at 12 mph.
Outer rainbands are starting to impact the Outer Banks of North
Carolina. Winds are only sustained at 40 mph with Gabrielle.
Little wind damage impact is expected. Beach erosion and heavy
rainfall will likely be the main problems with this system.

All
Photos are copyrighted by Beau Dodson (unless otherwise clearly stated) and are used on this site with his
permission. Any use other than authorized by them is against the
law. If you wish to contact him regarding use of these photos,
please e-mail me and I will
forward it.