Profile: Profile: Miller couples impressive fastball location and a plus breaking ball to mow-down opposing hitters. The four seamer lacks bite in the lower half of the zone, but was dynamic as he moved up the latter. He relies on his breaking ball, which was located well with consistent break, to set up his fastball and changing hitters’ eye level. At times, the fastball can flatten out and be to hittable. Miller closed the year out in nasty fashion and will compete with many other talented Cardinals arms during Spring Training for a rotation spot. (JD Sussman)

The Quick Opinion: Shelby Miller got off to a terrible start in 2012 but he dominated hitters at the end of the season to salvage his year. He will enter Spring Training with a chance to earn a spot in the Cardinals rotation. (JD Sussman)

Profile: The postseason search party sent out for Shelby Miller has not yet located the breakout 23-year-old righty. That might make him a candidate for great value in 2013 drafts. Because mostly his team was trying to protect the youngster's arm. After 150.1 innings in 2012, he went 173.1 in 2013. While his fastball velocity stayed steady, his curveball velocity became inconsistent in the late season, and perhaps the team saw something that made them worry. Assuming he's fine now, there's still a little bit of risk. Only nine starters threw the fastball more than Miller last year, and it might be tough to strike out almost a batter per inning in 2014 if he continues that trend. Even though his fastball gets almost 50% more whiffs than your average fastball, it's not generally a great pitch for that sort of thing. It's also bad news that his changeup and curve don't have great pitch peripherals -- neither gets average whiffs or ground-balls for their pitch type. With a great fastball and good control in a pitcher's park and league, Miller is worth an investment no matter what, and especially if his postseason depresses his value. With these risk factors, though, make sure to rein in your enthusiasm on draft day. (Eno Sarris)

The Quick Opinion: Don't be like the Cardinals and forget about Shelby Miller. Do be like the Cardinals and make him part of a large collection of young pitchers, especially if he's relatively cheap on draft day. The quantity over quality approach should help mitigate some of his performance and health risk factors.

Profile: For Miller to rebound in 2015, he needs to re-find his curveball. Despite a constant fastball velocity from 2012 to 2014, his strikeout rate still dropped from 8.9 in 2012-2013 (only 13 innings pitched in 2012) to 6.3 in 2014. The main reason for the decline in punchouts is his that his curve now gets a below average amount of ground balls and swinging strikes. If he had not developed a home run prone cutter, he would be a one pitch pitcher with a good fastball. Unfortunately his walks are headed in a bad direction, too, as he's slid from 2.9 walks per nine ('12-'13) to 3.6 BB/9 in 2014. If one positive exists, it is that his walk rate did improve in the second half last year (4.46 to 2.31). All the struggles lead to a career high 3.74 ERA which was about a run less than his ERA estimators. It's tough to pinpoint a 2015 projection for him in Atlanta after just a single year of decline. It's tempting to value him with his '14 line. If he regresses back to his '13 production, great. If not, at least you didn't overpay for him. (Jeff Zimmerman)

The Quick Opinion: Shelby Miller is not going to get a needed boost by going the Braves. To get back to what he can be, he needs to improve both his strikeout and walk numbers. That'll probably come from some combination of work on his command and his curve.

Profile: With Shelby Miller's big curve, high velocity rising fastball, bad change, and good cutter, it seemed obvious what he should do last year: throw more high fastballs, ditch the change, and throw the cutter more to lefties. So Miller went to Atlanta and did all of those things. And the resurgence was grand. He still didn't strike out a lot of guys, though. And so projections don't love him, especially in that tougher park in Arizona. Here's one thing that the projections can't know though: suddenly, late in the season, Miller found three inches of drop on his changeup. It didn't lead to a lot of whiffs, but Miller did start trusting the pitch more, and it offers the whiff of upside to stave off the regression that everyone thinks is coming. Another thing, before you stare too hard into his home run per fly ball rate last year, know this: home runs per fastball go down dramatically after 94 mph. Miller averaged 94 mph on his fastball last year. Will he again? That seems to be just as important a question as any. (Eno Sarris)

The Quick Opinion: Don't pay 2015 prices for Shelby Miller. But if your league is full of saber-savvy projection-hounds, Miller may have shown the type of skills that help him beat those projections. A new changeup, a top-shelf fastball, and the cutter/curve combo that have shown proven results now -- don't ignore this pitcher.

Profile: Shelby Miller was bad last year. I know, I know, you are suspect of this claim, but stay with me. On the heels of three strong major league seasons (at least results-wise, one of the three was shaky skills-wise), Miller joined the Diamondbacks after a trade which cast him into an ace spotlight he was ill-equipped to fulfill. Instead of being his solid and developing mid-rotation self, he self-immolated to the tune of 6.15 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 101 innings with skills that validated the fall off (near or above 5.00 on all of his ERA indicators). A mechanical breakdown led to a sprained finger that resulted in a DL trip and eventually a demotion. He did finish the season with 11 scoreless innings to ensure an ERA below 7.00, but there's plenty of work to be done to get back to his previous heights. Early in spring training, it looks like more of the same with a 9.39 ERA, but 10 strikeouts and a 5.0 K:BB ratio plus vastly improved mechanics in 7.2 innings suggest Miller is much closer to his pre-2016 self. Plus, his velocity is up to 96.7 mph on average. Strikeouts and velocity are two key factors from spring that can actually foreshadow regular season performance. Miller is a complete afterthought in all drafts making him worthy of a gamble on the arm and potential. (Paul Sporer)

The Quick Opinion: Miller had a disastrous 2016 that led to a mechanical breakdown and subsequent demotion. He looks markedly better in spring training with improved velocity and a return to his previous mechanics. The price has dropped to a level where it's easy to take a shot on the arm talent in any format.

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