Australia urgently needs more gas
supply and more gas suppliers to head off a supply shortfall forecast for 2019.

APPEA Chief Executive Dr Malcolm
Roberts said the report released today by AiGroup shows customers will pay a
heavy price for government bans on developing new gas supply.

“Gas is no different to any other
commodity – you restrict supply, you push up prices,” Dr Roberts said.

“We have the bizarre situation of
State governments banning new gas projects and then complaining about higher
gas prices.

“The Australian Competition and
Consumer Commission, the Productivity Commission and a host of independent
commentators all agree that stifling supply can only lead to higher prices.

“Yesterday, the ABS released data
showing gas exploration is at its lowest level since 2005.

“Today, the AWU is calling for the
Commonwealth to force Australian gas producers to tear up their
contracts. We need billions in investment to unlock new gas supplies but
the AWU’s approach would kill investment overnight.

“There is no shortage of gas which can
be developed to supply all of our local and export customers.

“Just as our agricultural industries
have the capacity to supply export and domestic markets, so does Australia’s
east coast gas industry. Our LNG exporters are also the major suppliers
to the domestic market.

“People concerned by the impact of
higher gas prices on local customers should be arguing for the removal of
unnecessary restrictions on developing new resources, not more heavy-handed
regulation.

“The AiGroup report simply reinforces
what APPEA has been saying for years – that gas customers will pay
higher-than-necessary prices if restrictions on developing new gas projects
continue.

Dr Roberts said it was ironic the
AWU’s call for intervention to renegotiate export contracts came on the same
day that domestically‑focused Cooper Energy and the APA Group announced a
$605 million investment in developing the Sole Project to supply east
coast gas market.

“Changes that increase the cost of
exploration and production in Australia will place future investment – like
that required for projects such as Sole – at risk,” he said.

WHAT SHORTAGE?

We find that although a
“gas-price crisis” exists in eastern-Australia, a gas-supply shortfall is very
unlikely to occur. Our review finds that the size of AEMO’s forecast shortfall
is very small, amounting to no more than around 0.2% of annual supply.

In addition, only eleven
days after announcing its supply-gap concerns, AEMO essentially closed the gap
when it published, on its website, updated (lower) electricity-demand forecasts
that therefore lead to less demand for electricity generated by burning gas.[University
of Melbourne, Australian-German Climate and Energy College, Tim Forcey and Dylan
McConnell, 2017, A
short-lived gas shortfall]

However, it is also
important to note that the total gas supply in Eastern Australia has expanded
rapidly in recent years, and the key domestic issue is more to do with the gas
price that is now dictated by linkages to international trade, than the supply.

In addition the
combination of falling renewable and storage costs means alternative options
for the electricity sector will be cheaper than developing relatively expensive
unconventional gas resources such as coal seam gas.[University of Melbourne, Australian-German
Climate and Energy College, Dylan McConnell, 2017, IS
THE AUSTRALIAN GAS SHORTFALL A MYTH?]

A predicted shortage of gas for electricity generation in Australia from 2018 will not eventuate, and the recent surge in domestic prices will not be mitigated by opening up new coal seam gas fields, according to a new report.

In March, the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) predicted that without national reform, Australia would face gas shortages, which would drive power outages, in 2018 and 2019.

“If we do nothing, we’re going to see shortfalls in gas, we’re going to see shortfalls in electricity,” Aemo’s chief operating officer, Mike Cleary, told the ABC at the time.

Despite being described by some as “major”, the actual shortfall of electricity from the gas shortage amounted to the equivalent of less than 24 hours over a 13-year period, according to the new report by Tim Forcey and Dylan McConnell at Melbourne University’s Australian-German climate and energy college.

In any case, less than two weeks after Aemo predicted the shortfall, it published an updated forecast of how much electricity would be needed in the period. It downgraded the previous forecast and completely wiped out the predicted shortage.

The Melbourne University report, which was commissioned by the Wilderness Society and Lock the Gate, also noted that later in March Shell announced it was proceeding with its “Project Ruby” that involved 161 gas wells in Queensland, and also would have closed the shortage, if it were real.

No comments:

Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
[Adopted and proclaimed by United Nations General Assembly resolution 217 A (III) of 10 December 1948]

NSW North Coast

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Moggy Musings

Hi! My name is Boy. I'm a male bi-coloured tabby cat. Ever since I discovered that Malcolm Turnbull's dogs were allowed to blog, I have been pestering Clarencegirl to allow me a small space on North Coast Voices.

A false flag musing: I have noticed one particular voice on Facebook which is Pollyanna-positive on the subject of the Port of Yamba becoming a designated cruise ship destination. What this gentleman doesn’t disclose is that, as a principal of Middle Star Pty Ltd, he could be thought to have a potential pecuniary interest due to the fact that this corporation (which has had an office in Grafton since 2012) provides consultancy services and tourismbusiness development services.

A religion & local government musing: On 11 October 2017 Clarence Valley Council has the Church of Jesus Christ Development Fund Inc in Sutherland Local Court No. 6 for a small claims hearing. It would appear that there may be a little issue in rendering unto Caesar. On 19 September 2017 an ordained minister of a religion (which was named by the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse in relation to 40 instances of historical child sexual abuse on the NSW North Coast) read the Opening Prayer at Council’s ordinary monthly meeting. Earlier in the year an ordained minister (from a church network alleged to have supported an overseas orphanage closed because of child abuse claims in 2013) read the Opening Prayer and an ordained minister (belonging to yet another church network accused of ignoring child sexual abuse in the US and racism in South Africa) read the Opening Prayer at yet another ordinary monthly meeting. Nice one councillors - you are covering yourselves with glory!

An investigative musing: Newcastle Herald, 12 August 2017: The state’s corruption watchdog has been asked to investigate the finances of the Awabakal Aboriginal Local Land Council, less than 12 months after the troubled organisation was placed into administration by the state government. The Newcastle Herald understands accounting firm PKF Lawler made the decision to refer the land council to the Independent Commission Against Corruption after discovering a number of irregularities during an audit of its financial statements.The results of the audit were recently presented to a meeting of Awabakal members. Administrator Terry Lawler did not respond when contacted by the Herald and a PKF Lawler spokesperson said it was unable to comment on the matter. Given the intricate web of company relationships that existed with at least one former board member it is not outside the realms of possibility that, if ICAC accepts this referral, then United Land Councils Limited (registered New Zealand) and United First Peoples Syndications Pty Ltd(registered Australia) might be interviewed. North Coast Voices readers will remember that on 15 August 2015 representatives of these two companied gave evidence before NSW Legislative Council General Purpose Standing Committee No. 6 INQUIRY INTO CROWN LAND. This evidence included advocating for a Yamba mega port.

A Nationals musing: Word around the traps is that NSW Nats MP for Clarence Chris Gulaptis has been talking up the notion of cruise ships visiting the Clarence River estuary. Fair dinkum! That man can be guaranteed to run with any bad idea put to him. I'm sure one or more cruise ships moored in the main navigation channel on a regular basis for one, two or three days is something other regular river users will really welcome. *pause for appreciation of irony* The draft of the smallest of the smaller cruise vessels is 3 metres and it would only stay safely afloat in that channel. Even the Yamba-Iluka ferry has been known to get momentarily stuck in silt/sand from time to time in Yamba Bay and even a very small cruise ship wouldn't be able to safely enter and exit Iluka Bay. You can bet your bottom dollar operators of cruise lines would soon be calling for dredging at the approach to the river mouth - and you know how well that goes down with the local residents.

A local councils musing: Which Northern Rivers council is on a low-key NSW Office of Local Government watch list courtesy of feet dragging by a past general manager?

A serial pest musing: I'm sure the Clarence Valley was thrilled to find that a well-known fantasist is active once again in the wee small hours of the morning treading a well-worn path of accusations involving police, local business owners and others.

An investigative musing: Which NSW North Coast council is batting to have the longest running code of conduct complaint investigation on record?

A which bank? musing: Despite a net profit last year of $9,227 million the Commonwealth Bank still insists on paying below Centrelink deeming rates interest on money held in Pensioner Security Accounts. One local wag says he’s waiting for the first bill from the bank charging him for the privilege of keeping his pension dollars at that bank.

A Daily Examiner musing: Just when you thought this newspaper could sink no lower under News Corp management, it continues to give column space to Andrew Bolt.

A thought to ponder musing: In case of bushfire or flood - do you have an emergency evacuation plan for the family pet?

An adoption musing: Every week on the NSW North Coast a number of cats and dogs find themselves without a home. If you want to do your bit and give one bundle of joy a new family, contact Happy Paws on 0419 404 766 or your local council pound.