Since late last week there has been talk of a big severe weather outbreak for today. Even yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center had a 45% widespread severe storm risk for today. They have backed off a bit today, but the numbers are still being fine tuned depending on where morning storms stabilize things for today.

Here is the tornado outlook.....

In the 5% area.....LouisvilleIndianapolisEvansvilleSt. Louis

Advertisement

Portions of this area may be upgraded to a 10% risk in the early afternoon update.

For damaging winds.....

An ENHANCED or 30% risk for wind damage includes......LouisvilleCincinnatiIndianapolisEvansville

The SPC says that some areas in the risk area will end up with no severe weather while other areas will have a lot of severe weather.

NWS Louisville says for this afternoon......By early afternoon, do have better coverage (40-50%) of storms as we continueto destabilize and individual disturbances move through our SW flow.The big question with these afternoon storms is whether or not theywill become strong/organized enough. If so, vertical wind profileswould support supercells.

For this evening......Expecting a round of storms to initiate ahead of the main cold front in the mid/late afternoon to early evening hours, with a mix ofsupercells and bowing line segments possible. Main threat isdamaging winds but could not rule out a few tornadoes as well. Largehail is also possible, especially with any discrete cells that formout ahead.

Overnight......Frontal passage still looks to arrive late evening through theovernight. These storms will also pose a severe threat, mainlydamaging winds, as broken line segments approach from the west.We`ll lose our daytime heating but sufficient dynamics andinstability will keep strong to severe storms a threat.

The Weather Channel TOR:CON index:4 for this afternoon and tonight.

WeatherBell is calling for 20-30 tornadoes today.

Current indications are for a bigger outbreak of severe storms mid or late week of next week. Depending on the timing of the front, for Thunder Over Louisville on Saturday, April 18th, we will either be warm and in the 70s with storms or much cooler with dry weather or light showers and high in the 50's.