This project assessed the potential effects of climate change on tidal marsh habitats and bird populations, identified priority sites for tidal marsh conservation and restoration, and developed a web-based mapping tool for managers to interactively display and query results. Project results can be found at PRBO’s San Francisco Bay Sea-Level Rise Website

The goal of the Northwest Basin and Range (NWBR) Synthesis project is to synthesize existing landscape planning and science and develop a shared conservation vision for stakeholders in the region. This webinar provides an overview of the NWBR Synthesis’ work to identify shared conservation priorities, including: - The Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation framework - How the NWBR is using the framework to synthesize current landscape planning and science - How experts will vet this process

The goal of the NWBR Synthesis is to develop shared conservation priorities and implementation strategies across the region by synthesizing existing landscape planning and science. In this informational webinar we: -Provide a project update -Share an example from a similar regional effort, The Arid Lands Initiative -Introduce the project’s Team Structure, and the variety of ways you can get involved

This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of rangeland vegetation dynamics in southwest South Dakota. It was co-designed with resource management partners to support scenario planning for climate change adaptation. The study site encompasses part of multiple jurisdictions, including Badlands National Park, Buffalo Gap National Grasslands, and Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. The model represents key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition (i.e., distribution of ecological community phases). See Miller et al. (2017) for further details. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform (www.apexrms.com/stsm)....

​A scenario planning exercise focused on climate change, land use, and moose in the Northeast U.S. is being undertaken by the Wildlife Conservation Society, North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Northeast Climate Science Center (U.S. Geological Survey), and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. Phase 1 of the scenario planning process involves the identification of key features and drivers within the focus system. This newsletter summarizes the scientific state of knowledge and associated uncertainties from a workshop held at the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife headquarters in Westborough, MA on 4–5 February 2015.

The objective of this preliminary modeling effort was to prepare a single HexSimPLE model for the Northern Basin Pygmy rabbit population within the geographic extent of the Northwest Basin and Range landscape (Figure 1, http://www.greatbasinlcc.org/nw-basin- range). Population parameters derived from the literature and reviewed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) refuges team were used to populate a simplified individual- based model (IBM) platform to develop a reasonable yet simplistic representation of pygmy rabbit movement, habitat use, and population dynamics in this landscape. This preliminary modeling effort was used to make qualitative comparisons among hypothetical land management scenarios. Results...

Scenario planning, while not a new process, is relatively new to applications in conservation and natural resource management. Not surprisingly, managers want to learn about scenario planning to help them understand whether incorporating it into their current planning processes will provide desired outcomes and is the best use of their time. This newsletter summarizes the recently attended Northeast Moose Group Meeting as well as a session on scenario planning at the Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) annual meeting highlighting ongoing efforts in the region. The aim in broadening our engagement is to share information, exchange ideas, and build from others’ endeavors with relevance to...

This project explored how two scenario planning approaches might be used effectively with existing management planning processes and data sources and how to begin prioritizing adaptation strategies. The two approaches used in this project are Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) and Strategic Scenario Planning (SSP). This report provides an overview of the project webinars and two workshops, our analysis of the strengths and limitations of the scenario planning approaches used, and suggestions for using these methods to prioritize adaptation actions.

FY2015The Great Basin Region, which covers much of Nevada, and portions of California, Oregon, Idaho, and Utah, managers are already confronting a changing climate and are beginning to make management decisions despite uncertainty in how climate change effects will manifest in the region. To support decision making, the Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Science Assessment Program (RISA) funded this project to explore how two scenario planning approaches might be used effectively with existing management planning processes and data sources and how to begin prioritizing adaptation strategies. The two approaches used...

One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning. In this approach, a subset of global climate model projections are selected that represent a range of plausible future climate scenarios for a particular area. Through a series of facilitated workshops, managers can then explore different management...

The Northwestern Great Basin ecoregion is one of the most intact ecosystems in the west as well as a biological hotspot. However, altered fire regimes, invasive species, water scarcity, development and climate change threaten the integrity of this landscape. Several efforts are ongoing for individual species, specific threats or sub-geographies, and over 60 existing plans and assessments have been identified for the region. The Northwestern Basin and Range Landscape Conservation Project will pull the pieces together to create a holistic view of shared priorities on the landscape. In partnership with state and federal natural resource managers, tribes, and private landowners, this project will address landscape-scale...

The Nature’s Stage Climate Mapper allows users to explore the geoclimatic stability of HUC5 watersheds within the Pacific Northwest.Geoclimatic Stability, as defined here, is a measure of a natural system’s capacity to remain stable as the climate changes over time. This is based on two factors: * Climate Departure: a measure of how different the future climate is projected to be from the historical climate. * Climate Resilience: a measure of how resilient an area is expected to be to changes in climate (based on topoclimate diversity and landscape permeability).A watershed with lower levels of climate departure and higher levels of climate resilience is more likely to sustain current levels of native biodiversity...

We held two works for this project. The first two-and-a-half day workshop was held June 25–27, 2014 at DRI in Reno, NV. There were 15 attendees, representing the BLM Nevada, State of Nevada, United States Forest Service (USFS), and NGOs. The goals of the first workshop were: 1) give participants exposure to the ACT and SSP Strategic Scenario Planning (SSP) scenario planning processes; 2) introduce participants to the REA data and consider how REA data could be used in these processes; 3) evaluate how these two processes may be helpful to participants. The first day focused on the CBR REA and the ACT process; the second day was devoted to the SSP process; and the third day was a morning session for feedback and evaluation....

Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged drought, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future. These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water under unpredictable drought conditions, preserving forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions. In light of the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, this project seeks to help decision-makers...

We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter...