Global Warming/Climate Change South Windsor Rotary Club South Windsor, CT Wednesday, 13 May 2009 There continues to be an increasing number of scientists.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Warming/Climate Change South Windsor Rotary Club South Windsor, CT Wednesday, 13 May 2009 There continues to be an increasing number of scientists."— Presentation transcript:

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Global Warming/Climate Change South Windsor Rotary Club South Windsor, CT Wednesday, 13 May 2009 There continues to be an increasing number of scientists and public figures around the world who are challenging the dominant political- and media-driven claims, bolstered by so-called consensus scientific views, that dangerous "global warming/climate change" is caused primarily by human- produced carbon dioxide. This public talk will show that the weight of scientific evidence strongly contradicts the alarmist claims. It will also explain what are some likely scientific, educational, economic, and societal consequences resulting from the corruption of the scientific method. Dissecting the Claims Exposing the Methods Laurence I. Gould Physics Department, University of Hartford

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Petition Project Figure 25: In 2006, the United States obtained 84.9% of its energy from hydrocarbons, 8.2% from nuclear fuels, 2.9% from hydroelectric dams, 2.1% from wood, 0.8% from biofuels, 0.4% from waste, 0.3% from geothermal, and 0.3% from wind and solar radiation. The U.S. uses 21 million barrels of oil per day 27% from OPEC, 17% from Canada and Mexico, 16% from others, and 40% produced in the U.S. (95). The cost of imported oil and gas at $60 per barrel and $7 per 1,000 ft 3 in 2007 is about $300 billion per year. [Mention Cap & Trade] 85% from Hydrocarbons! U.S. Energy (2006)?

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Figure 26: Delivered cost per kilowatt hour of electrical energy in Great Britain in 2006, without CO 2 controls (126). These estimates include all capital and operational expenses for a period of 50 years. Micro wind or solar are units installed for individual homes. Petition Project

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A. Horn George C. Marshall Institute: The Cost of Climate Regulation for American Households (Buckley & Mityakov, Clemson Univeristy) cap-and-trade yields an equivalent of a permanent tax increase for the average American household, which was estimated to be $1,100 in 2008 $1,437 in 2015 $1,979 in 2030 $2,979 in 2050 Increase of price paid for energy ELECTRICITY prices will increase % by 2015 NATURAL GAS prices increase % by 2015 GASOLINE price increase % by 2015 [increase of price per gallon: 16 cents - $2.58] (using the January 2009 reported retail price of $1.78 per gallon).

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BRIEF COMMENTS ABOUT POPULAR PERCEPTIONS 1. Alternative energy sources would decrease our reliance on oil. TRUE 2. Pollution is damaging to the environment. Also TRUE, depending on whats meant by pollution and considering the cost/benefit tradeoffs related to industrial emissions and standard of living. 3. Anthropogenic emission of CO 2 is causing dangerous global warming. NOT SUPPORTED, regardless of the widespread claims, because of the scientific evidence and analysis which contradict such claims. 4. The existence of a range of climate-changes/disasters support the AGWA belief. NOT SUPPORTED, even though it is a prevalent non sequitur that continues to be widely propagated.

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Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST)

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Issues and Events Climate changes for peace prize winners The award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize delighted scientists and the public but underscored the US government's lack of action to reduce global warming.Physics Today December 2007, page 22 So I d like to emphasize the fact that we re at a stage where warming is taking place at a much faster rate. And, clearly, if we don t bring about some changes, we would have much faster changes in the future. R.K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2008 Wallace Wurth Memorial Lecture; 23 October 2008; University of New South Wales (Sydney, Australia). Title: Our Vulnerable Earth: Climate Change, the IPCC and the role of Generation Green

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WHAT IF YOU LIVED IN 1940?! WHAT IF YOU LIVED IN 1950?! Two green arrows with their years added by me.

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A. Horn

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WARM is GOOD!

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The Sun!

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A. Horn

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Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )

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Smokestacks and CO 2 ?! AIT: The Earth s atmosphere is so thin that we have the capacity to dramatically alter the concentration of some of its basic molecular components. In particular, we have vastly increased the amount of carbon dioxide the most important of the so- called greenhouse gases. (25) Lewis: Over the past century and a half, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen from about 280 parts per million (ppm) to about 380 ppm roughly a 35% increase Similar to a two-page spread (pp of a 328 page book) in An Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore.

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A. Horn

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Cf.,A. Horn Given a 100,000 person stadium. If each person stood for one molecule of the atmosphere… then about 40 people stand for all the CO2 molecules! About how many people stand for the human contribution? ONE !!

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A. Horn

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Nature versus Us

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A. Horn

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Figure 24: Calculated (1,2) growth rate enhancement of wheat, young orange trees, and very young pine trees already taking place as a result of atmospheric enrichment by CO 2 at from 1885 to 2007 (a), and expected as result of atmospheric enrichment by CO 2 to a level of 600 ppm (b).

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Is NOT Pollution Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

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Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) and Temperature Does the former push the latter?

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Carbon Dioxide Increasing BUT World Temperature Falling!

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Reviewed by: Spreading False Ideas To Children

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In An Inconvenient Truth(pp of the book; also film) similar curves are presented, but with the one for CO 2 above the one for Temperature. Gore, commenting on how they fit together says: the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO 2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the Sun is trapped inside. [Last sentence false: (1) no correlation and (2) convection not considered; cf., Lindzen E&E]

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If it disagrees with experiment [scientific evidence] it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It does not make any difference how beautiful your guess is. It does not make any difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is if it disagrees with experiment it is wrong. Richard Feynman The Character of Physical Law, The MIT Press, 1965, p. 156.

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In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

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There are 20 significant populations of polar bears around the top of the globe. Of the 13 in Canada, 11 are either stable or increasing in size. "They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present," according to Taylor In Canada, where a decade ago our Arctic had 12,000 bears, Taylor and other bear specialists estimate there are now 15,000 bears, an increase of 25 per cent in just 10 years. Worldwide there are 22,000 to 25,000 polar bears whereas 50 years ago 8,000 to 10, before the first SUV, before Kyoto, before most people had even heard of the global warming theory -- there were just Dr. Mitch T aylor, polar bear biologist for the government of Nunavut, and one of the leading experts in the world on Ursus maritimus..

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Figure 11: Global sea level measured by surface gauges between 1807 and 2002 (24) and by satellite between 1993 and 2006 (25). Satellite measurements are shown in gray and agree with tide gauge measurements. The overall trend is an increase of 7 inches per century. Intermediate trends are 9, 0, 12, 0, and 12 inches per century, respectively. This trend lags the temperature increase, so it predates the increase in hydrocarbon use even more than is shown. It is unaffected by the very large increase in hydrocarbon use. Petition Project

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Lulled by Logic? IF it rained THEN the streets are wet. The streets are wet THEREFORE it rained. Error in Logic! Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent IF there is anthropogenic global warming THEN the Arctic ice will melt. The Arctic ice is melting THEREFORE there is anthropogenic global warming. Same Error in Logic! sea ice coverage in Arctic & Antarctic: Compare

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Qualifications of Signers Signatories are approved for inclusion in the Petition Project list if they have obtained formal educational degrees at the level of Bachelor of Science or higher in appropriate scientific fields. The petition has been circulated only in the United States.The current list of 31,072 petition signers includes 9,021 PhD; 6,961 MS; 2,240 MD and DVM; and 12,850 BS or equivalent academic degrees. Most of the MD and DVM signers also have underlying degrees in basic science.All of the listed signers have formal educations in fields of specialization that suitably qualify them to evaluate the research data related to the petition statement. Many of the signers currently work in climatological, meteorological, atmospheric, environmental, geophysical, astronomical, and biological fields directly involved in the climate change controversy. CONSENSUS ?!CONSENSUS ?!

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Consensus & Science Einstein and Consensus 200 against his theory… One valid refutation is sufficient. … the number of scientists is not important. The only [his stress] thing that s important is if the scientists are correct [his stress]; that s the important part. Ivar Giaever, Nobel Laureate in Physics (panel at Lindau, 1 July 2008)

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Or, pictorially…

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Possible Consequences for Science of AGWA-stimulated Policies

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ABOUT DANGERS TO SCIENCE Science will get a black eye from the AGWA misrepresentations and distortions and suppression of information: What will happen to the public s support of science? What will happen to the Funding of legitimate science? And what is happening? What is happening to the Funding of climate science at the expense of the other sciences? Furthermore, what Message conveyed to students who would have gone into science? And what will happen to Science education in the U.S.?

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Petition Project Figure 25: In 2006, the United States obtained 84.9% of its energy from hydrocarbons, 8.2% from nuclear fuels, 2.9% from hydroelectric dams, 2.1% from wood, 0.8% from biofuels, 0.4% from waste, 0.3% from geothermal, and 0.3% from wind and solar radiation. The U.S. uses 21 million barrels of oil per day 27% from OPEC, 17% from Canada and Mexico, 16% from others, and 40% produced in the U.S. (95). The cost of imported oil and gas at $60 per barrel and $7 per 1,000 ft 3 in 2007 is about $300 billion per year. [Mention Cap & Trade] 85% from Hydrocarbons! U.S. Energy (2006)?

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E.P.A. Expected to Regulate Carbon Dioxide The decision, which most likely would play out in stages over a period of months, would have a profound impact on transportation, manufacturing costs and how utilities generate power. February 18, 2009 John M. Broder quote from the NYT

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Moral Issues

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76 I believe it is appropriate to have an over- representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is. Al Gore C. Monckton

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A Skeptic s Guide to An Inconvenient Truth (quoted/arranged from) Marlo Lewis and … Marlo Lewis is a Senior Fellow in Environmental Policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. AIT is One Sided Misleading Exaggerated Speculative WRONG Furthermore, it… Never acknowledges the indispensable role of fossil fuels in ending serfdom and slavery, alleviating hunger and poverty, extending human life spans, and democratizing consumer goods, literacy, leisure, and personal mobility.

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From the Inquisition (Galileo) to Lysenkoism through the 3rd Reich to Hansen James Hansens National Press club speech (23 June 2008) The heads of major fossil-fuel companies who spread disinformation about global warming should be "tried for high crimes against humanity and nature

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[i]n 1975 Yale University published a report on freedom of expression (PDF*) which was adopted as formal university policy and is often referred to as a authoritative statement in support of freedom of expression. Here is an excerpt of some of its eloquent and forceful prose (emphases added): The primary function of a university is to discover and disseminate knowledge by means of research and teaching. To fulfill this function a free interchange of ideas is necessary not only within its walls but with the world beyond as well. It follows that the university must do everything possible to ensure within it the fullest degree of intellectual freedom. The history of intellectual growth and discovery clearly demonstrates the need for unfettered freedom, the right to think the unthinkable, discuss the unmentionable, and challenge the unchallengeable. To curtail free expression strikes twice at intellectual freedom, for whoever deprives another of the right to state unpopular views necessarily also deprives others of the right to listen to those views. On the obligations of academics (and I would argue that the responsibility extends to scientists at research institutions that are not universities, such as government labs), the report states: We value freedom of expression precisely because it provides a forum for the new, the provocative, the disturbing, and the unorthodox. Posted on July 22, :30 AM * Roger Pielke, Jr. (U. Colorado,Boulder Free speech is a barrier to the tyranny of authoritarian or even majority opinion as to the rightness or wrongness of particular doctrines or thoughts. Yale University statement regarding Freedom of Thought & Expression (1975)

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Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate: Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change [NIPCC] Science and Environmental Policy Project, Edited by S. Fred Singer 167 scientific references and a list of 41 books

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Our concern about the environment, going back some 40 years, has taught us important lessons. It is one thing to impose drastic measures and harsh economic penalties when an environmental problem is clear-cut and severe. It is foolish to do so when the problem is largely hypothetical and not substantiated by observations. As NIPCC shows by offering an independent, non-governmental second opinion on the global warming issue, we do not currently have any convincing evidence or observations of significant climate change from other than natural causes. [my stress] Frederick Seitz President Emeritus, Rockefeller University Past President, National Academy of Sciences Past President, American Physical Society Chairman, Science and Environmental Policy Project

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A. Horn … is a lesson in courage bequeathed by those who came before…

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Thanks for your attention. Lives of great men all remind us We can make our lives sublime, And, departing, leave behind us Footprints on the sands of time ; [including the life-supporting carbon footprints] Longfellow, op cit

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END NOTES

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94 MWP appears … From IPCC (1990) O after C. Monckton

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95 … MWP disappears! From IPCC (2001) O after C. Monckton

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Hockey Stick AIT: Those global warming skeptics … launched a fierce attack against another measurement of the 1,000-year correlation between CO2 and temperature known as the hockey stick, a graphic image representing the research of climate scientist Michael Mann and his colleagues [Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes]. But in fact, scientists have confirmed the same basic conclusions in multiple ways with Thompson s ice core record as one of the most definitive. (65) The claim of last sentence in AIT is FALSE see McIntyre & McKitrick; see Wegman report; see Monckton; see Marlo Lewis critique of the entire Gore film/book; and see McKitrick, What is the Hockey Stick Debate About? The Science of Climate Change by Dr. Michael Mann Bruce Museum: September 21, 2008 Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue – tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records) and instrumental data (red) from AD 1000 to Smoother version of NH series (black), and two standard error limits (gray shaded) are shown

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Net Incoming Solar Radiation (NISR) = 342 W/m W/m 2 = 237 W/m 2

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The prevailing Authorities In my opinion the Nobel prize in global warming and such has already been given last year by Gore; who got the Nobel Prize for global warming and what not. And I hate to say something bad about Norway, but in this case I sharply [his stress, based on his study of the AGW claims] disagree with that prize. Ivar Giaever (Nobel Laureate, Physics) 58th Meeting of Nobel Laureates Panel Discussion on "Climate Changes and Energy Challenges (Lindau; 1 July 2008)

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Errors of Method deflect attention from the science An augmentation:: Robert M. Carter, Public Misperceptions of Human-Caused Climate Change: The Role of the Media given in Testimony before the Committee on Environment and Public works (December 6, 2006); section titled Playing the man and not the ball illuminates techniques that have been used to convince the public of AGWA. Carter notes that:. 1. The science is settled; or, there is a consensus on the issue. … science is about facts, experiments and testing hypotheses, notconsensus; and science is never settled. [Indeed, Einsteins relativity theories are still being tested; e.g., Lorentz invariance] 2. He is paid by the fossil fuel industry, and is merely repeating their desired story. [e.g., several anti-AGWA scientists had their credibility challenged in accusations by the Chairwoman of Senate Environment & Public Works Committee at hearing on 25 February 2009] Science discussions are determined on their merits, by using tests against empirical or experimental data. Who paid for the data to be gathered and assessed is simply irrelevant. 3.She works for a left wing/right wing think tank, so her work is tainted Think tanks serve an invaluable function in our society. On all sides of politics they are the source of much excellent policy analysis. They provide extended discussion and commentary on matters of public interest, and have made many fine contributions towards balancing the public debate on climate change. 4. He is just a climate sceptic, a contrarian, a denialist. … all good scientists are skeptics: that is their professional job. To not be a skeptic of the hypothesis that you are testing is the rudest of scientific errors, for it means that you are committed to a particular outcome: that s faith, not science. 5. Six Nobel Prize winners, and seven members of the National Academy of Sciences say ……. Argument from authority is the antithesis of the scientific method. 6.The precautionary principle says that we should limit human carbon dioxide emissions because of the risk that the emissions will cause dangerous warming. Thus the science argument should be subservient to the risk argument In order to take precautions, it is necessary to understand what one is taking them against. But at the moment global average temperature is flat-lining, and empirical predictions are for cooling. As Dick Lindzen recently pointed out in an article in the U.K. Telegraph: After all, like hurricane frequency or the price of oil, global mean temperature is as likely to go down as up.

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I am a physics teacher. Or, at least I used to be. My subject is still called physics. My pupils will sit an exam and earn a GCSE in physics, but that exam doesnt cover anything I recognize as physics. Over the past year the UK Department for Education and the AQA board changed the subject. They took the physics out of physics and replaced it with… something else, something nebulous and ill defined. I worry about this change. I worry about my pupils, I worry about the state of science education in this country, and I worry about the future physics teachers if there will be any. …………… The result is a fiasco that will destroy physics in England. The thing that attracts pupils to physics is its precision. Here, at last, is a discipline that gives real answers that apply to the physical world. But that precision is now gone. Calculations the very soul of physics are absent from the new GCSE. Physics is a subject unpolluted by a torrent of malleable words, but … now everything must be described in words. In this course, pupils debate topics like global warming and nuclear power. Debate drives science, but pupils do not learn meaningful information about the topics they debate. Scientific argument is based on quantifiable evidence. The person with the better evidence, not the better rhetoric or talking points, wins. But my pupils now discuss the benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power plants, without any real understanding of how they work or what radiation is. I want to teach my subject, to pass on my love of physics to those few who would appreciate it. But I cant. There is nothing to love in the new course. I see no reason that anyone taking this new GCSE would want to pursue the subject. This is the death of physics. Wellington Grey --- Physics teacher

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107 Is the IPCC honest? C. Monckton

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108 BEFORE (#1) None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases. IPCC (1995) C. Monckton Monckton

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109 BEFORE (#5) When will an anthropogenic effect on climate be identified? It is not surprising that the best answer to this question is, We do not know. IPCC (1995) C. Monckton

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111 Unless we announce disasters, no one will listen. Sir John Houghton Cf., Monckton Biofuels disaster IPCC (1988) Chair for scientific assessment the poor people in the world, who stand to be very disadvantaged by things like climate change policy We need very large growth in renewable energy sources … biomass … All quotes, except the first, are from Physics Today; September 2007, page 30

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113 Al Gore says, I believe this is a moral issue. So it is. To announce disasters or scary scenarios; to over-represent factual presentations in place of adherence to the scientific truth – that is a moral issue. To announce disasters unjustly is a moral issue Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

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Censorship Issues Nature editorial (12 July 2001) Mentions the mounting evidence that the consumption of fossil fuels is producing emissions that change the make-up of the atmosphere and may endanger the future of the planet. … industry groups in question … have championed specious scientific findings and worked to establish a bogus scientific debate… to confuse and delude the public on global warming. Under the Veneer of legitimacy Consensus – American Statistical Association [Wegman spelled out what happened] – American Meteorological Society [11,000 member; Joe dAleo was on Council; Pielke attacked them] – American Physical Society [over 30,000 members; as I mention in my Open Letter -- Spring 2008 NES APS Newsletter I am, therefore, particularly amazed and distressed to find the APS Council taking the stand (in their November 2007 meeting) that The evidence is incontrovertible. Global warming is occurring and then going on to urge governments, universities, national laboratories and its [APS] membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. (APS NEWS, Jan. 2008, Vol. 17, No. 1; front page)