The UFC’s latest trip across the Atlantic might not look like the most competitive or compelling card from a fan’s perspective, but I believe the card presents several interesting fights and, most importantly, several intriguing betting opportunities.

A loss on my only public pick for UFC 92 brought the running total
for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 64-50 for +18.125 units. Plays I’d posted on Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans at better lines than were widely available (thus not eligible for my public record) helped to ease the losses, but they didn’t cover them.

Of course, finding out from Dana White after the fact that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was suffering from both an ACL injury and a staph infection didn’t make the unexpected loss to Mir any easier, but it certainly helped explain the extremely poor performance Nogueira exhibited in the bout. It remains to be seen if Nogueira is as “shot” as he seemed, if Mir has improved as much as he appeared in the standup game, or if the outcome was instead significantly impacted by Nogueira’s reported injury and illness. I’d warn those gambling on each fighter’s next fights to weigh the possibilities carefully.

As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com’s recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It’s easy to open an account at Bodog, and you can fund your Bodog account
with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you’ve
experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven’t
watched MMA. Having your heart race when “your” fighter steps into the
cage — even if you’ve only got a few dollars in play — is a feeling
like none other. (But you should only wager you’d feel comfortable losing. Keep it fun.)

If you’re interested in learning more about betting on MMA, be sure to check out our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series, which allows even the most novice bettor to be a long-term winner wagering on MMA. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our new UFC Odds page.

Rich Franklin (-105) vs. Dan Henderson (-125)

Between them, Rich Franklin (24-3 MMA, 11-2 UFC) and Dan Henderson (23-7 MMA, 3-2 UFC) have nine title fights across the UFC and PRIDE organizations. Here, the two face off for a different type of title; the winner of this fight will be named a coach on the ninth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” reality show, coaching the U.S. team opposite Michael Bisping’s U.K. squad.

While both are more famous for their work at middleweight, this fight will be contested at 205 pounds. While Franklin is more known from his time in the UFC at middleweight, he spent the first four years of his career at 205 pounds. Henderson is well known for his work in both divisions, especially as the only person to hold both the 185-pound and 205-pound titles simultaneously in the now-defunct PRIDE organization.

Franklin has won four of his past six fights, including his past two, defeating Travis Lutter by TKO at UFC 83 and Matt Hamill at UFC 88 in Franklin’s return to the light-heavyweight division. Franklin has lost to only two fighters in his career, fighters who not coincidentally come from the same fight camp: Brazil’s Casa Preta, or Black House (which has now reformed as the Nogueira and Silva Mixed Martial Arts Academy in Miami, Fla). After winning 12 fights to open his career, Franklin was first bested by Lyoto Machida back in 2003. Then, after winning eight consecutive fights (including winning and twice defending the UFC middleweight championship), Franklin suffered the two brutal losses to Anderson Silva at UFC 64 and UFC 77.

Henderson has split his past six fights, losing to Kazuo Misaki before winning consecutive fights over Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva in the PRIDE organization, and then dropping consecutive fights in the UFC to Quinton Jackson and Anderson Silva. He most recently defeated Rousimar Palhares by unanimous decision at UFC 88, Henderson’s first win in the UFC organization in 10 years.

Henderson is a former Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler and obviously as such has great wrestling skills. Still, for a top-tier wrestler, he will occasionally end up on his back in fights, a byproduct of his lunging and wild striking style. Henderson has huge power in both hands; he’s mostly known for his big overhand right, but he also has power in a big looping left hook, which he used to knock Wanderlei Silva out cold at PRIDE 33.

Henderson’s typical fight plan goes one of two ways. Henderson frequently depends on a combination of his iron chin and his looping power punches to knock opponents out on the feet, or he’ll depend on his wrestling skills and focused ground and pound usually to grind opponents to a decision. Since his major-stage debut at UFC 12 in 1998, nine of Henderson’s first 12 fights went to decision, contributing to his less-than-flattering unofficial nickname “Decision Dan.” Six of his past eight have gone to decision; the flash KO of Wanderlei Silva and the submission loss to Anderson Silva were the only two that didn’t go to the judges.

Franklin has no formal wrestling background, and generally, his wrestling is the weakest part of his game (outside of his defense in the clinch when Anderson Silva has a hold of him, but that’s another story). He does have good technical striking with decent (but not overwhelming) power. As a middleweight, Franklin is huge with a strength advantage over just about everyone in the division, but at light heavyweight, where this fight is to be contested, his size and strength advantage is lessened significantly.

This fight line is close with a slight lean toward Henderson. I believe the odds should be reversed and that Franklin should be a slight favorite. Henderson is 38 years old and has been through a lot of long wars in his illustrious career. His standup style of telegraphed, slow-looping power shots should be easily countered by Franklin’s ability to remain at range and pepper with fast, accurate jabs and kicks. Franklin is a southpaw, which helps to further negate Henderson’s go-to overhand right as Franklin can more easily circle away from Henderson’s power and beat him to the punch with quick jabs and one-two combinations.

Franklin possesses underrated jiu jitsu, and he demonstrated some great submission defense recently against Travis Lutter at UFC 83. While I do think Henderson should be able to put Franklin on his back easily if he can get in grabbing distance, I don’t think Henderson can just blanket him there; Franklin’s submission skills from his back should be able to set up transitions and keep Henderson generally uncomfortable while on top. On the other side, Henderson doesn’t present much of an offensive submission threat; it’s been more than nine years since his most recent submission victory, which was a power technique in the Japanese organization “Rings.”

Franklin also has an edge in cardio. He’s been very active in the late rounds of his fights, including going a full five rounds with David Loiseau at UFC 58, four rounds with Evan Tanner at UFC 53, a full three rounds with Yushin Okami at UFC 72, and deep into fights with Matt Hamill, Travis Lutter and Jason MacDonald. Henderson has shown cardio problems several times in past fights, albeit most frequently while fighting at 185 pounds. While he did go a full five rounds with Quinton Jackson, that fight is actually a good example of cardio problems; Henderson handily won the first round, slightly edged the second (winning on two judges cards), then began to show signs of fatigue and lost the final three rounds of the fight.

Between Franklin’s ability to win the fight standing with quickness and technique and his ability to threaten and set up transitions when the fight hits the ground, I think he has a decent chance of winning this contest. I do think the fight will be highly competitive in each direction, and as such, it presents a high-variance outcome for betting purposes.

Most likely this fight is headed for decision unless Henderson catches Franklin with a big power shot and puts him away early; it’s not likely that Franklin can win by stoppage unless he can stun Henderson with a high kick and get the referee to step in to stop a flurry of aggression. Henderson has been submitted only three times in his career — by each of the Nogueira brothers and by Anderson Silva — but Franklin is more likely to use his submission skills to setup transitions than to finish. Franklin does have four wins by technical submission on his record but none against an opponent at Henderson’s level.

However, assuming Franklin can execute his likely gameplan by staying at range and circling to the right, keeping Henderson off balance with quick combinations, using his kicks effectively, and forcing transitions via submission skills when he is taken to the ground, I believe Franklin should really be about a 60% favorite, making the “true” line Franklin -150, giving us a decent edge at the current line despite the high volatility of the play.

Mark Coleman (+320) vs. Mauricio Rua (-400)

In case you’re a brand new MMA fan, Mark “The Hammer” Coleman (15-8 MMA, 7-3 UFC) is a legend of the sport. Already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame, the 44-year old Coleman is one of the pioneers of the “ground and pound” technique, the concept of putting your opponent on his back and raining down punches and elbows. Coleman has a history of winning; he won an NCAA national wrestling championship for “the” Ohio State University, won the tournaments at UFC 10 and UFC 11, won the first-ever UFC heavyweight title by beating Dan “the Beast” Severn, and won the 2000 PRIDE Openweight Grand Prix Championship.

Punctuated by these wins, Coleman’s career has been an interesting mixture of ups and downs. After winning the first ever UFC heavyweight title, Coleman lost his next four fights and made an exit from the UFC in the process. Coleman won the 2000 PRIDE Openweight Grand Prix Championship as a heavy underdog but then fought only five times over the next five years while dropping three of the five fights.

Brazilian Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (16-4 MMA, 0-1 UFC) was widely considered the top light heavyweight in the world thanks to an impressive career in the now-defunct PRIDE organization. “Shogun” won 12 of his first 13 fights with his only loss a submission to Renato “Babalu” Sobral late in the third round of a fight in which Rua was ahead on the cards.

During this stint, Rua won the PRIDE 2005 Grand Prix for the middleweight (93 kg) weight class, which was arguably one of the most stacked tournaments in MMA history. The list of fighters bounced from the tournament by the people he later beat — Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, Vitor Belfort, Dean Lister, Igor Vovchanchyn, Kevin Randleman, Kazuhiro Nakamura, Kazushi Sakuraba — is almost as impressive as the list of fighters Rua himself dispatched. In the four rounds of the grand prix, “Shogun” bested Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona.

Following the grand prix victory, Rua faced off against Mark Coleman at “PRIDE 31: Unbreakable.” The event’s title would prove to be a bad omen; Rua completely dislocated his elbow less than a minute into the fight trying to brace himself against a takedown thus losing by TKO. Rua returned to action only seven months later and won his next four fights in PRIDE before the organization was acquired/raided/demolished by the UFC.

Rua made his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin at UFC 76. “Shogun” nearly pulled out of the fight weeks before with a serious knee injury, but he pushed on to fight anyway to follow the tradition of many Brazilian fighters. There, he fought a tough fight against the now-recently dethroned champ. Despite fighting under the shadow of a very significant knee injury, Rua had a competitive first round that could have gone either way (we scored it slight edge for Griffin in our play-by-play), won the first part of the second round (scoring a takedown and opening Griffin with an elbow) but then gassed heavily after the exertion, and he was beaten soundly in the second half of the second round and throughout the third round of the fight, where poor conditioning from a serious knee injury would present itself the most. And it’s not like the knee injury was an after-the-fact excuse, either: it was well documented prior to the fight (see: “‘Shogun’ injured, may be scratched from UFC 76 debut“).

I have all the respect in the world for Coleman as a legend and pioneer of this sport, but unfortunately, he is quite a bit past his prime in both age and in performance. Thanks to his own knee injury, which kept him being force-fed to (and likely brutally demolished by) Brock Lesnar at UFC 87, it has been two and a half years since his most recent professional fight, which took place at PRIDE 32, where he was absolutely abused by the hands of Fedor Emelianenko.

As previously mentioned, Coleman is 44 years old, and outside of an absolutely freak victory over “Shogun” in their previous fight, in the past seven and a half years, he’s beaten only Milco Voorn and Don Frye (at the tail end of his own legendary career). Before an army of commenters brings up the point, yes, Randy Couture is a genetic freak and has been successful into his 40s in MMA. Couture is essentially the only fighter past 40 to have significant success on the major stage and is very much the exception, not the rule. Coleman is not Randy Couture; he’s been through several bloody wars, he’s coming off a significant knee injury, and he lacks the same history of wins over top-tier competition in the modern era.

For those questioning if Rua has adequately healed from his knee injures, I present exhibits A and B: training videos from Rua’s camp courtesy of Bad Boy MMA. You can see Rua’s confidence as he plants, twists, kicks and moves. Speaking as someone who has rehabbed very significant injuries personally, I can attest that you can generally tell from how someone moves just how much confidence he has in his post-injury knee, and Rua very much appears to be 100 percent.

Despite being a heavy favorite, I believe Rua is still a worthwhile bet at the current odds of -400. Coleman’s chances of winning outside of the usual statistical outliers like another injury are slim. Rua has a very significant edge in striking and also in conditioning. Rua is extremely dangerous on the ground and significantly likely to submit his opponent in the event the fight does go to the ground (four of Coleman’s past five losses have come by way of submission). I expect “Shogun” to start strong, damaging Coleman with kicks and knees, and I will be extremely surprised if the fight gets out of the first round.

Alan Belcher (+240) vs. Denis Kang (-300)

UFC veteran Alan “The Talent” Belcher (13-5 MMA, 4-3 UFC) comes in as a heavy underdog to journeyman veteran Denis Kang (31-10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) who is making his UFC debut. Kang has been fighting professionally since 1998, and he’s been fighting frequently at an average of more than four fights a year. Kang holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt earned under Marcus Soares. Between 2003 and 2006, Kang went on a 19-fight win streak, a streak stopped by Kazuo Misaki in the final round of the PRIDE Bushido 185-pound grand prix. However, that fight deserves at least two separate asterisks; Kang tore his right biceps defeating Akihiro Gono in the previous round of the tournament, and Kang was fighting barely 30 days after the death of his longtime girlfriend and fiancée (and professional boxer and mixed martial artist), Shelby Walker.

Kang fought in the DREAM 2008 Middleweight Grand Prix and lost to eventual champion Gegard Mousasi by triangle choke in the first round of the tournament (and the first round of the fight).

Kang fights out of Florida’s American Top Team camp and is still mentored by Soares, a Carlson Gracie disciple, of Soares Jiu Jitsu in Vancouver. Kang also spent much of 2008 training with UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre in Canada.

Belcher holds a purple belt in BJJ and runs his own school, Remix MMA, in Biloxi, Miss. Belcher is a game fighter with a history of stepping up repeatedly on short notice; he made his UFC debut against Yushin Okami at UFC 62 on only two weeks’ notice while filling in for David Terrell. Later Belcher stepped in against Sean Salmon at UFC 71 on only 10 days’ notice while filling in for an injured Eric Schafer.

Belcher has also been on the other side, affected by injuries and withdraws; he was scheduled to fight at UFC 81 against Ricardo Almeida, but he had to pull out two days before the fight due to a severe case of bronchitis. Belcher was then scheduled to fight Patrick Cote at UFC 83 in Montreal, but unfortunately, Cote had to withdraw due to a knee injury. Rookie Jason Day stepped in on short notice and stopped Belcher with strikes in the first round.

Belcher rebounded from the disappointing loss to Day with a close split-decision win over Ed Herman at UFC Fight Night 15 in Omaha.

This fight is a definite step up in competition for Belcher and is an important test for Kang, who has split three of his past six fights. At 31, Kang has a solid MMA record, but he has not really beaten any top competition in his lengthy career, and he is at an important turning point after his recent losses. If he can turn things around, Kang could become a top contender in the UFC’s razor-thin middleweight division, and he could find himself fighting for the title before his four-fight deal is up if he can string together three decisive wins.

Kang should be able to handle Belcher here while possessing an edge on the feet and a moderate edge in grappling if the fight hits the ground. From a gambling perspective, I think the line is well set with Kang as a 75% favorite, and I do not see an edge betting either fighter. I do expect to see Kang to carry a unanimous decision.

Marcus Davis (-145) vs. Chris Lytle (+115)

If this were a college bowl game, Marcus Davis (15-4 MMA, 7-2 UFC) would be considered to have home-field advantage despite technically fighting on neutral turf. Not only is Davis extremely proud of his Irish heritage, but he’s also fought on every overseas UFC card in recent history: UFC 89 in Birmingham (England), UFC 85 in London, UFC 80 in Newcastle, UFC 75 in London, and UFC 72 in Belfast. In fact, it’s been almost two years since Davis fought in the U.S. (UFC 69 in Texas).

Davis is a former professional boxer with great standup skills, and he has won 12 of his past 13 fights, losing only a unanimous decision to Mike Swick at UFC 85 in that stint. Despite the boxing background, Davis has become a well-rounded mixed martial artist and now has more than half his 15 wins by way of submission.

There’s a lot of pre-fight hype for this match with a lot of predictions for “Fight of the Night” honors for this bout. The prediction isn’t much of a stretch; it would make the second time winning the award for Davis and the second straight “Fight of the Night” honor for Chris Lytle (26-16-5 MMA, 5-8 UFC). In fact, between them the two fighters, they have collected three “Fight of the Night” awards, two “Knockout of the Night” awards, and three “Submission of the Night” awards — just in their past six fights each.

Lytle comes into this fight off a brutal war against Britain’s Paul Taylor at UFC 89. We scored the fight as a close win for Taylor; however, the judges saw it as a unanimous decision win for Lytle, surprising us as well as the crowd in attendance. The close win improved Lytle to 3-4 in his past seven fights, which has included losses to Matt Serra, Matt Hughes, Thiago Alves and Josh Koscheck in that stretch.

Lytle is a dangerous veteran and a very game, well-rounded fighter, but I give Davis the nod in this matchup. Davis’ southpaw style and better boxing pedigree should give him the edge on the feet, and he’s proven well rounded enough in wrestling and jiu jitsu to effectively balance Lytle’s skills on the ground. Lytle has never been knocked out, has never been submitted, and has never even been stopped in a fight outside of a cut. I expect Davis to break this streak with a third-round TKO, though given Lytle’s history of cut stoppages that’s not out of the question either (assuming Davis’ hand-speed advantage and better defensive head movement ends up with Lytle eating a lot of little shots early).

While I think this fight is worth a play, as it’s still a close fight in both directions and especially since Lytle possesses the ability to end fights by knockout or submission. This definitely presents a high-variance fight to bet on, and those significantly risk adverse should probably pick a safer fight.

Jeremy Horn (+280) vs. Rousimar Palhares (-350)

Omaha’s Jeremy Horn is one of the most experienced fighters in all of MMA with an 80-18-5 MMA record. That’s no typo; this will be Horn’s 104th professional fight and his 13th in the UFC, where he holds a 6-6 record. Horn has dropped four of his past six fights and his past two consecutively, which came to Dean Lister at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale and Nate Marquardt at UFC 81.

Brazilian Rousimar Palhares trains with Brazilian Top Team and holds an 8-2 MMA record. “Toquinho” won six fights in a row, including submission victories over Fabio Negao, Chute Boxe’s Daniel Acacio and Ivan Salaverry in his UFC debut at UFC 84, before dropping a unanimous decision to Dan Henderson at UFC 88.

Palhares is incredibly strong and very compact with the excellent grappling skills you would expect from a BTT member with a BJJ blackbelt under Murilo Bustamante. Palhares’ standup was awful in the match against Henderson and depended exclusively on slow, telegraphed backkicks that let Henderson completely dictate the location of the fight throughout.

Still, Horn’s standup isn’t anything significant — considering most specifically that he was submitted in his last fight by the equally one-dimensional Dean Lister — so in this fight there’s no reason to think that Palhares can’t get the fight to the ground. And on the ground, while Horn has a great jiu-jitsu pedigree, he’s lost three of his past four by submission, and I expect him to fall in to the same pattern here. In a fight between two equally skilled jiu-jitsu practitioners, strength can become a deciding factor, and Palhares has a very significant strength advantage. He should be able to utilize that advantage to lock in an early fight-ending submission.

Horn has an illustrious MMA career that is clearly drawing to a close, and I would expect him to exit the UFC, if not retire from competition entirely, to focus on running his Elite Performance gym in Utah.

Alexandre Barros is a Brazilian fighter under Gracie Barra with a 13-5 MMA record and is riding a nine-fight win streak. He holds a black belt in Muay Thai and blue belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. However, Barros is being overrated here in my opinion thanks in no small part to a padded record developed against low- and mid-level Brazilian fighters and very little experience outside of Brazil. His nine-fight win streak includes a 20-month layoff from 2006 to mid-2008, the combined record of those opponents is 65-42, and nine of his past 13 fights have gone to decision. He’s also lost all three times he’s been outside of Brazil, which included a 2000 fight against Matt Hughes in which Barros submitted due to exhaustion.

Kampmann is dropping down to 170 pounds for this fight, and there’s certainly a legitimate concern about his first fight cut down from middleweight. However, that is essentially the only real concern I have for this fight. Barros hasn’t demonstrated anything of significance in his past fights; he does have decent Muay Thai skills, but Kampmann has a significant reach advantage (Barros is only 5-foot-9) and should be able to leverage that reach advantage to pick apart his opponent and secure a one-sided victory. I predict Kampmann wins by second round TKO in a one-sided fight.

Antonio Mendes (-105) vs. Eric Schafer (-125)

Brazilian Antonio Mendes (15-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is a tough and technical striker who made his UFC debut against Thiago Silva at UFC 84. There, Mendes was a fish out of water once the fight hit the ground, and Silva quickly wrapped up the fight with a submission via strikes. Mendes does have four submission wins on his record, so it’s possible that his ground skills aren’t nearly as bad as they looked in the fight against Silva.

Eric Schafer (10-3-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC) demonstrated nicely in his most recent fight against Houston Alexander that he has the standup skills and the toughness to hang with an aggressive and dangerous striker long enough to get the fight to the ground, and there he will look to duplicate that success against Mendes.

I think this fight can go either way. Schafer was clipped by Alexander a couple times and was nearly knocked out, so it is not unreasonable to think that Mendes can end the fight on the feet especially given that Schafer isn’t really very dangerous standing. Schafer most certainly has a significant edge on the ground, but he hasn’t demonstrated the wrestling skills necessary to ensure that a fight gets there every time. Alexander, for example, was able to stuff three takedowns from Schafer before succumbing to the fourth through a technical mistake in his takedown defense.

If either fighter became a significant underdog, I’d probably take a small flier at positive numbers. However, with the lines this close, I can’t recommend a bet on either side on such a high-variance fight. I’ll predict Schafer by submission but really won’t be surprised if Mendes scores a TKO.

Ivan Serati (+175) vs. Tomasz Drwal (-215)

Polish fighter Tomaz Drwal (14-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) looks to rebound from a loss to Thiago Silva in his UFC debut back in September 2007. Drwal was on a 13-fight win streak before the loss to Silva, and he hasn’t had a professional fight since the loss 16 months ago. His opponent, Italian fighter Ivan Serati (10-2 MMA), makes his UFC debut on a four-fight win streak.

Drwal demonstrated terrible cardio in his fight against Silva, but he has decent power and strength before he gasses. Serati should be outmatched on the feet and if put on his back, but if he can get the fight to the ground in a dominant position, he has shown a decent top game in past fights and could win via ground and pound if Drwal gasses and he can get to top position later in the fight.

The odds are almost worth a shot on Serati here, essentially betting against Drwal’s gas tank. However, with so much action elsewhere on the card, I’m going to stay away from this match. Drwal wins by TKO in the first, or Serati wins by TKO in the third. It’s very doubtful we see a decision here unless both fighters just gas horribly, in which case we could be in for a horribly sloppy fight with almost no chance of seeing the televised broadcast.

Tom Egan (+230) vs. John Hathaway (-290)

Tom “The Tank” Egan is a local Irish fighter with only a 3-0 professional MMA record. The 20-year-old has a background primarily in boxing and trains MMA at Pro Team Ireland gym. He faces Englishman John Hathaway, who holds a 9-0 professional record while fighting primarily for England’s Cage Rage organization. Egan should have the edge on the feet, but Hathaway is well-rounded and experienced, and one would expect him to look for an early takedown to neutralize Egan’s boxing skills and look for a victory via ground and pound.

It will be interesting to see if Hathaway’s significant edge in experience can overcome what will be the overwhelming support of the hometown crowd. Early line movement indicates that the rest of the betting market doesn’t think so; almost all the early money has come in on Hathaway.

Nate Mohr (+130) vs. Dennis Siver (-160)

Iowa’s Nate Mohr (8-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC) takes on Germany’s Dennis Siver (12-6 MMA, 1-3 UFC) in this lightweight battle to open the night. Both fighters are strikers, and both fighters look completely uncomfortable if the fight even hints at heading toward the ground. Expect a striking bout with Mohr trying to use his reach advantage to counter Siver’s edge in handspeed. I’m not remotely interested in betting on this one; given both fighters history of sub-par performances in the octagon, it’s simply too hard to predict how this one turns out.