Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

Who do you think? While it seemed a given that Russia would have 3 spots for the Ladies at the Olympics, that's obviously no longer the case.
It seems to be a 3-way race for 2 spots, between Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya. But what about Gosviani, Makarova, Leonova, Korobeynikova?

I'm banking on Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya. Tuktamysheva has been outrageously inconsistent this season, while Lipnitskaya seems to have gotten past her initial struggles this season.

Sotnikova (currently the strongest Russian lady) and Lipnitskaia/Tuktamysheva. We still don't know how Tukt will look next season--she finally seems to be getting accustomed to her new body--and Lipnitskaia is just starting her uphill battle with the puberty monster. It's quite possible that she won't be as leggy or thin in a few months, and her jumps are already notoriously borderline (especially the 2A). The fight between the latter two will most likely be a coin toss between who shows up in a better state of mind on the night of RN.

Leonova seems to have forgotten how to jump, although with her last Olympic opportunity on the line, she might be able to seize it. Gosviani and Korobeynikova are too inconsistent/inexperienced to pose a real threat at 2014 RN. Makarova, I believe, is finished with the sport and is pursuing higher education in New York. In any case, she was never a serious contender against the younger girls.

So, in conclusion, what I think each lady's chances are (each is out of 100%):

The problem with your percentages is they add up to 265%. For it to be realistically based your percentages would have to add up to 200% or less as there are only 2 spots. In any case Makarova should get a 0%, but other than that I agree with your relative order. I think Lipnitskaia is more likely to make it than Tuktamysheva right now though, and I think Leonova is still a possability, while Sotnikova is not even a total certainty albeit probably the most likely to make it. I wouldnt count out Gosviani or Korobeynikova but they would have to be lights out to get a spot. Is Polina A. still skating (I know Polina S. plans to skate for Israel now). Anna Pogorilaya has to be given an outside shot too I think.

The problem with your percentages is they add up to 265%. For it to be realistically based your percentages would have to add up to 200% or less as there are only 2 spots. In any case Makarova should get a 0%, but other than that I agree with your relative order. I think Lipnitskaia is more likely to make it than Tuktamysheva right now though, and I think Leonova is still a possability, while Sotnikova is not even a total certainty albeit probably the most likely to make it. I wouldnt count out Gosviani or Korobeynikova but they would have to be lights out to get a spot. Is Polina A. still skating (I know Polina S. plans to skate for Israel now). Anna Pogorilaya has to be given an outside shot too I think.

I did say that I chanced each lady out of 100%, where 100 means that it's certain she'll get the spot... If you want to think of it in terms of probabilities, that's fine, too.

To be honest, I can't see Makarova being in contention. But, 5% just seems too mean for a skater as good as she has been in the past!

Originally Posted by pangtongfan

Is Polina A. still skating

Well, according to the Wikipedia article about her, she competed in Nice and at the Triglav this season, so I assume she's continuing next season as well. Even if you were a VERY outside shot (like Agafonova is), it would be very foolish to quit going into an Olympic season.

Originally Posted by pangtongfan

Anna Pogorilaya has to be given an outside shot too I think.

And as for Anna Pogorilaya, I don't think she'll be old enough for next season. She was born in April 1998, so she will still be only 15 when next year's World Championships come along. But, the following year, she should certainly be in the list!

Thoroughly agree with all the analyses given in this thread so far.
However, I would make a couple of tweeks to ForeverFish's percentages list to reflect my opinion. Nothing major, just a couple of swaps and slight adjustments to the numbers.

Leonova higher than Lipnitskaya? I know that Julia is probably going to face the puberty monster, but look at poor Alena this season, she didn't even skate one clean SP, let alone more than two clean triples in a FS...

I think the spots are Adelina's and Liza's to lose. They are sufficiently experienced, having competed in senior events two years and participated in a world championships. They are technically solid, having the highest scoring potential of any of the Russian women. And although they are very inconsistent now, both might be past the worst of their growing pains.

With all the politicking that goes on in an Olympic year, it would be wise for Russian to get their favorites established early so they can lobby for their athletes throughout the season. Aside from Leonova's WSM, Adelina and Liza have had the best results this Olympic cycle.

I think the spots are Adelina's and Liza's to lose. They are sufficiently experienced, having competed in senior events two years and participated in a world championships. They are technically solid, having the highest scoring potential of any of the Russian women. And although they are very inconsistent now, both might be past the worst of their growing pains.

With all the politicking that goes on in an Olympic year, it would be wise for Russian to get their favorites established early so they can lobby for their athletes throughout the season. Aside from Leonova's WSM, Adelina and Liza have had the best results this Olympic cycle.

I think it would be best if Adelina and Liza went, but I could picture Lipnitskaia stealing a spot from either of them, particularly Liza (who has had inconsistencies and isn't getting great PCS internationally). Mathematically, a clean Lipnitskaia with maxed out technical content could place in the top 5 in Sochi, which at this point should be a reasonable goal for the Russian women.

I think the spots are Adelina's and Liza's to lose. They are sufficiently experienced, having competed in senior events two years and participated in a world championships. They are technically solid, having the highest scoring potential of any of the Russian women. And although they are very inconsistent now, both might be past the worst of their growing pains.

With all the politicking that goes on in an Olympic year, it would be wise for Russian to get their favorites established early so they can lobby for their athletes throughout the season. Aside from Leonova's WSM, Adelina and Liza have had the best results this Olympic cycle.

The spots are Liza's and Adelina's to lose and they have the potential to lose them! Liza with her terrible short programs at almost every competition and Sotnikova with her terrible jumping problems and worst programs in figure skating.

The issue of Russia getting its favorites established early is impossible. It is impossible because Liza with her awful pcs and short programs and Sotnikova popping every other flip and ur-ing they make themselves look terrible and not really Olympic worthy. So they could easily be supplanted by Leonova and Lipnitskaya or even Gosviani or whoever.

The representation of Russia at the Olympics is wide open and there are no real frontrunners and no one can be seen as being so great as to be invaluable. Leonova has a world silver medal and Liza and Adelina both were disasters in their first worlds. Being overshadowed by so many other girls their age. Li, Gold, Osmond. It was amazing how poorly they did.

"Mathematically" is not your speed. Give us "based one facts from recet competitions" who will be the top 4 in Sochi.

Gosh, CSG is into Ladies now.

I'm asking this as a poster who just wants educated debate in the threads: Please respect CanadianSkaterGuy for what are obviously his opinions--he's not trying to force them down anyone's throat.

That being said, I do disagree that Lipnitskaia could place in the top five at Sochi, even with maximum technical difficulty. I think we can discount her beating any of the Big Three right off the bat. Her jumps and spins, while impressive for such a young senior, aren't near the level of polish or impressiveness that characterize Gold or even Sotnikova. Then you have the older ladies who can net significantly higher PCS--Suzuki, Wagner, Murakami. Lipnitskaia's stand-out quality is her hyperflexibility, which--unfortunately--isn't a big point-getter in any category. Her best bet, if she makes the Olympic team, is placing in the top ten in Sochi and getting that Olympic experience for 2018, when she should be much more of a contender.

My Top Four in Sochi, based mostly on Worlds but also on the GP:

1. Yuna
2. Carolina
3. Mao (can drop off the podium if she falters)
4. Ashley (dark horse for bronze IF she gets that 3-3 )

Leonova higher than Lipnitskaya? I know that Julia is probably going to face the puberty monster, but look at poor Alena this season, she didn't even skate one clean SP, let alone more than two clean triples in a FS...

ITA. As much as I'd like to believe that Leonova has it in her to come back fighting, the fact is that Julia has a much stronger mental state than Alena ever did. She almost reminds me of 2010 Yuna based on how much she WANTS to win. Talk about a kid with nerves of steel.

I'm asking this as a poster who just wants educated debate in the threads: Please respect CanadianSkaterGuy for what are obviously his opinions--he's not trying to force them down anyone's throat.

Pardon but you obviously haven't been around much. CSG has been trolling enough and got at least one Plu thread get already closed. Moreover, just a few moments ago he offered to "judge" SLC by CoP, i.e. by the system that wasn't in apply and therefore legal at that moment. Which makes him be a rules/laws breaker. Nothing surprising for a Chanboni advocate. Now he is bringing the same russophobic trolling in Russian Ladies threads. There is nothing to respect for me at this very moment.

Pardon but you obviously haven't been around much. CSG has been trolling enough and got at least one Plu thread get already closed. Moreover, just a few moments ago he offered to "judge" SLC by CoP, i.e. by the system that wasn't in apply and therefore legal at that moment. Which makes be a rules/laws breaker. Nothing surprising for a Chanboni advocate.

The best way to deal with trolls, I've learned, is to ignore them until they leave. Not to encourage their antics by responding--"feeding" them, if you will.

I personally don't see a problem with re-"judging" the 2002 Olympics by CoP, if only for your own entertainment. It's always interesting to see how an event would be scored from a different perspective, whether it was in place at the time or not. Many people were rescoring 2013 US Nationals based on the defunct 6.0 system, which would have changed the final outcome, as the debate was over whether Gracie Gold would have had enough in the FS to jump from 9th to 2nd.

The best way to deal with trolls, I've learned, is to ignore them until they leave. Not to encourage their antics by responding--"feeding" them, if you will.

Responding is not necessary"feeding". It can be trolling trolls, which is a valid internet rule, the only one that becomes available when moderation allows trolls.

I personally don't see a problem with re-"judging" the 2002 Olympics by CoP, if only for your own entertainment.

The devil is in the details. In that particular reference that was a response to the Chan advocate, who applied CoP for SLC as one of his agenda points in defence of Chan's wins. While in fact the zamboni wouldn't have won anything under 6.0.