Speculation about who Romney will pick has run hotter the closer it has gotten to the GOP convention, which kicks off in Tampa on Aug. 27. Ryan has always been a contender, winning plaudits from conservatives for his boldness on and deep knowledge of budget issues, and an ability to put them in layman’s terms. (The left, meanwhile, disdains his proposed Medicare reforms, claiming they would gut the entitlement program.)

Still, it’s worth noting that, just about a month ago, it was Pawlenty who was the one to watch. The onetime presidential contender saw his chances of being picked as Romney’s No. 2 dramatically spike in mid-July.