Copeland by-election

The first big electoral test of 2017 will be the
Copeland by-election, called after Labour's Jamie Reed stood
down.

So far bookies make the Tories narrow favourites on 5/6 ahead of
Labour on 5/4. However, with no published polls and the
by-election date not yet even set, neither of these odds look
terribly attractive. You could place a bet on UKIP winning at
10/1 but this seems like a long-shot too far. The party received
just 15% of the vote in Copeland at the 2015 general election and
they have not done particularly well in other by-elections since
the EU referendum. It’s also telling that new leader Paul Nuttall
has ruled himself out of the running for this seat.

More attractive odds can be found in predicting the vote share
for individual parties. The 4/1 odds that UKIP receives fewer
than 10% of votes look fairly attractive as do the 10/1 odds
that Labour gets between 20%-30%. While neither outcome currently
looks likely, they are probably more likely than these odds
suggest.

Until we get a by-election poll, these are the best value bets on
offer.

Best odds:

UKIP receives less than 10% of the vote — 4/1

Labour receives between 20%-30% of the vote — 10/1

Adam Payne/Business Insider

Jeremy Corbyn

Plenty of money has been lost by people betting against Jeremy
Corbyn in recent years. The Labour leader has proven to be
surprisingly resilient despite huge internal unrest and polling
figures which suggest his party are heading for electoral
disaster.

However, there are still a few attractive bets available on
Corbyn’s future, both for critics and supporters of the Labour
leader.

One particularly attractive bet is that Labour will show a lead
in at least one YouGov opinion poll this year. Ladbrokes are
currently offering 5/1 that this will happen. While the party is
currently averaging a double-digit polling deficit behind the
Tories, this is actually a better value bet than the headline
poll numbers suggest. For starters, there is a huge variation in
Tory leads found by different polling organisations. While some
suggest the Tories could be anything up to 16 points ahead, a
recent
Opinium poll put their lead as low as seven points. With a
hugely turbulent political year ahead there is every reason to
suspect that this lead will shrink significantly. With most polls
having a margin of error of between 2-3% it would only take one
poor sample for Labour to record a small lead.

For those feeling less bullish about Labour’s chances, there is
also good value to be had in betting on the date of Jeremy
Corbyn’s departure. Ladbrokes currently have 2020 and beyond as
the favourite date for his departure. However, there are already
indications that Corbyn could be planning a much earlier exit.
There is lots of talk in Labour circles of a succession being
planned for 2019, with Ladbrokes offering 8/1 that this will take
place. This seems like an attractive bet, but if you don’t fancy
tying up your money for that long then the 5/1 odds that he will
go in 2018 also looks like good value.

Best odds:

Labour will lead the Tories in at least one poll in 2017 —
5/1

Corbyn will depart as Labour leader in 2018 — 5/1

Dan
Kitwood/Getty

Next Labour leader

Good odds can also be found on betting on who will replace
Corbyn. Keir Starmer looks overvalued as the current favourite on
8/1. A far more likely successor is the joint second favourite
Clive Lewis on 10/1. Lewis has strong appeal among the many new
young members who have joined since Jeremy Corbyn became leader
and he is quickly gathering support among some moderate members
and MPs who see him as the most unifying figure with the best
chance of succeeding Corbyn.

However, those looking for better value bets should look further
afield at some of the up and coming female Labour MPs. In
particular, Angela Rayner (16/1) Lisa Nandy (20/1) and Emily
Thornberry (20/1) look like good value bets. But if you’re
looking for really good value then you could do much worse than
take the 66/1 currently being offered on the shadow chief
secretary to the treasury Rebecca Long-Bailey. Although
relatively little known at the moment, Long-Bailey is close to
the current leadership and a smart operator. If Labour is looking
for their first ever permanent female leader then Long-Bailey
looks like an excellent bet.

Best odds:

Clive Lewis to be next Labour leader — 10/1

Rebecca Long-Bailey to be next Labour leader — 66/1

Rebecca Long-Bailey is valued at 66/1 to be next Labour
leader.Leon Neal /
Getty

Exit of the Brexiteers?

There are some really attractive are the odds on which
Conservative Cabinet minister will be the first to leave.

Even in politically normal times, Cabinet resignations are
relatively frequent and these are by no means normal times. The
three Brexit ministers, Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and David Davis,
are the current favourites to leave on 5/1, 6/1 and 8/1
respectively. Any one of these would make an attractive bet.

However, you may be more tempted by one of the less well-known
ministers. The Home Secretary Amber Rudd looks particularly good
value at 20/1. Before Theresa May, the Home Office was
traditionally a graveyard for ministers and Rudd already ran into
trouble this year with her conference announcement about making
companies ‘name and shame’ foreign workers. Rudd isn’t the only
minister who looks precarious. Priti Patel (16/1) and the
notoriously gaffe-prone Chris Grayling have also run into
difficulties in recent months. With May already proving herself
to be a ruthless operator, the chances of at least one cabinet
minister being forced to fall on their sword over the coming year
looks strong.

Best odds:

Boris Johnson to be the first cabinet minister to leave — 6/1

Amber Rudd to be the first cabinet minister to leave — 20/1

Gareth Fuller PA Wire/PA
Images

Snap election

Bookies still make 2020 or later the most likely date of the next
election. However, there appears to be plenty of people betting
on a snap election next year, with odds now down to just 6/4.

While there are good reasons to believe Theresa May will be
forced to call an election next year, better value can be found
in betting that it will be held in either 2018 or 2019, both
currently at 16/1. The latter of these two bets looks like the
best bet as it would mean that the election would take place
after the boundary changes have gone through in 2018. With the
end of the Article 50 process also due for 2019, this would
also allow the prime minister to use victory in the general
election as an effective endorsement for whatever Brexit deal she
manages to secure.

Best odds:

A snap election to be called in 2019 — 16/1

You can compare odds with other betting companies on
comparison sites such as oddschecker.com.