By Yongnian Zheng

A New Agenda: America and the World under Trump

In the wake of
Donald Trump’s stunning victory at the 2016 US presidential election, IPP
Review sat down with Professor Yongnian Zheng, Director of East Asian Institute
at the National University of Singapore, to address questions surrounding
Trump’s win, democracy, US’ foreign policies and more.

IPP
Review: The media and analysts are stunned by Donald Trump’s victory in the
2016 US general election. Are you surprised by the results?

I am not surprised
at all. I have said before that if Trump did not win this time, the Republican
party will notch an even bigger win in four years’ time. Especially in the
context of Brexit in the UK, how could we not have expected Trump’s win?

The people who are
taken aback by the result are the establishment, capitalists and academics in
the US. Why? The establishment has been too far removed from reality, from
society. It is like they are wearing the emperor’s new clothes, happy in their
own self-delusions. The capitalists have been too self-serving to see the crux
of the problem. As for academia, I feel a death knell has been sounded for
contemporary social science. If it cannot re-invent itself, it will become
detached from reality. In this matter, scholars in political science, economics
and sociology should be ashamed of themselves.

They were
pre-occupied with criticizing Trump. Academics such as political scientists
even waded into politics and petitioned against Trump. They spent too little
time reflecting on fundamental problems in the society and therefore they could
not see where the real troubles lie.

You will fail
spectacularly if you only view society through a particular lens, such as from
the point of view of ideology, elitism or power. Why did we assume that Hillary
Clinton would win the election? For those who thought that Trump would lose,
what was the basis of their assumption? Was it ideology? Was it vested
interests? Was it power? After Brexit, I wrote many articles to highlight the
crisis that is surrounding democracy now. The times make the man; Trump is
carried by the tides of our time.

The confluence of
power, interests and knowledge is a dangerous thing; it makes a person selfish
and limits his vision. This phenomenon is not confined to the US; it is also
appearing in Europe and China. It is a trend and we need to reflect on it.

IPP
Review: Can we describe what is currently happening in US democracy as
populism?

Trump’s win is the
people’s victory. The personal factor is very important in populism. Clinton
gave the impression of being well-spoken and intellectual, but behind her
captivating words she is just a politician, a Machiavellian at heart. Who are
the ones who believed her? It is those who identified with her, those on the
same ideological stand, and those who feared Trump would take away their
interests.

Although Trump may
be booed by the media and pundits, many Americans identify with him, saying “he
is just like us.” He may have zero political experience, but Americans feel
that he is “one of us.” Clinton knows the ins and outs of politics well and
even used a private email server for official matters. This is a criminal
offence, but as the establishment dislikes Trump, she was let off the hook.

The Democrats even
made use of Putin and Russia to attack Trump. Does the average American care? No.
What they care about is their livelihoods.

Therefore, the
message being sent by the establishment, the White House, the Republicans, the
Democrats and the media did not get to the Trump supporters or the swing voters
at all.

Another important
factor in Trump’s win is social media. In this election, he was only a
Republican in name. In fact, the GOP derided him and distanced itself from him.
It was social media that propelled him to victory. American youths do not get
their news from traditional outlets like CNN and The New York Times anymore;
they get the latest developments straight off the Internet. In other words, young
Americans have lost their trust in the establishment.

Trump did not win the
election based on policies; in fact, he was waging a social revolution.

After the sexual
harassment allegations against Trump surfaced, the leaders in the GOP began to
turn their backs on Trump. To Trump, it was a big relief, as it meant he did
not have to pander to the Party’s interests anymore. Being free to do what he
wanted, he fully made use of the popular sentiments to his advantage.

Trump’s win is a
product of the development of democracy. I liken this US election to the crisis
facing Western democracy in the late 19th century to early 20th century.
However, there will not be an “end of history” as argued by Francis Fukuyama.
What is happening now is a major adjustment in the development of democracy.

His win will
trigger massive socio-political change in America and Western society. As
Aristotle said, no system of government is perfect and it will transform when
it reaches a certain milestone. Although we always think of America as having
the perfect form of democracy, it too cannot escape this fate.

IPP
Review: Will Trump make good on his election promises? Or can we just view it
as election rhetoric and expect Trump to adjust his policies in the future?

Trump is a
businessman, not a politician. He did not win the election based on policies;
in fact, he was waging a social revolution. During the election, he did not
need to lay out his policy recommendations; he only needed to use a few
slogans, such as “build a wall” to rally his supporters. People mistook that as
his policy, which it was absolutely not. What Trump did was a rebellion against
the establishment, much like Brexit in the UK.

Did Trump supporters believe in his policies when they voted? No. What they
wanted was to stop the establishment, to overthrow it. Trump and his supporters
needed no policies or other goals. This is where many analysts went wrong.
Elections in the past were played out between policies recommended by the
opposing camps, which was not the case this time. As most analysts viewed Trump’s
words as policies, they wrongly condemned him to failure. Trump’s win is a
punishment brought upon the establishment by the masses.

Will Trump’s
election rhetoric become policies? I don’t think so. The election exposed a
deeply divided American society and Trump will need to heal the emotional scars
first. He needs to calm people’s fears. Without this, he will be unable to do
anything.

Even if he
succeeds in calming nerves, the checks and balances in the US governmental
system will limit what Trump can do. As Professor Wang Gungwu said, democracy
is the most conservative political system in the world—everyone has a say, yet
nobody can accomplish anything. Just look at Taiwan: Ma Ying-jeou could not
achieve anything nor will his successor Tsai Ing-wen be able to. It is the same
with the US, Japan and Europe.

IPP
Review: With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of both
the House and Senate, will the US democratic system be impaired?

We should not
worry too much. There are indeed many countries who are centralizing their
power, but the US democratic system is quite different. Countries like Russia were
originally ruled by emperors and kings; hence their systems have always been
top-down, with the government having a strong authoritarian grip on society.
The US is, however, a bottom-up society with decentralization as its
characteristic. In the US, it is the White House which has to listen to Wall
Street. Furthermore, US society is opposed to autocracy and the country is born
from uprising against unjust rule. Another factor is the decentralization of power
between the federal and state government. If the federal government
concentrates power in its own hands, many state governments will fight for
independence.

IPP
Review: Barring a constitutional crisis, what is happening with US democracy?

The middle class
in the US has shrunk from 70 percent before the 2008 financial crisis to less
than 50 percent currently. This is a critical situation. Obama was aware of it
and he immediately set about reforming healthcare after becoming president.
However, his reform was not thorough and it also smacked of ideology. In the
end, he was also bought over by capitalists and started to tout the Trans
Pacific Partnership (TPP). It caused a lot of resentment among ordinary
Americans. The TPP is driven by the capitalists and works under the framework
of neoliberal globalization.

Why did people not
vote for Clinton? It is because she is a spokesman for the capitalists. The
situation now is that the capitalists and the government are in cahoots. If
Trump wants to change the status quo, he has to make the government take a more
neutral stand between the capitalists and the masses. The government should not
be completely on the capitalists’ side.

What should Trump
do to benefit ordinary Americans? He needs to develop the economy and continue
to push for free trade. He should restore the balance between the political,
economic, and social power. Can this balance be achieved in the current
constitutional framework? I think it is possible, but the government needs to
play a pivotal role. The social problems that the US is experiencing now were
caused by changes in social structures bought about by changes in the economic
structure. So how should the political structure work in order to remedy the
situation? Trump needs to ponder this question and strike a balance between the
three parts. If he simply pushes the blame to African-Americans, Hispanics, and
free trade, he would be making a big mistake.

We should not
underestimate Trump. He is after all a businessman and may call upon his
business acumen to solve these social problems. Politics has become a vocation
to US politicians, to the extent that they create strong interest groups around
themselves. Trump is not part of these inner circles; that’s the reason people
pin their hopes on him.

IPP
Review: What effects will Trump have on geopolitics? It looks like he will make
major adjustments to America’s foreign policy.

There is much
Trump can do on the foreign policy front; he may even trigger a geopolitical
revolution. It is not because of his personal factor or because he has great
power in foreign policy actions. It is because the US is still the sole
superpower in the world. However, there are many conditions that limit what the
US can do in its foreign policy. After World War II, the US was the strongest
in the world in all aspects, including politics, culture, economy, and the military.
However, currently, it is only strongest in terms of military power. Although
the US may still have the largest economy in the world, it pales in comparison
to the past.

Firstly, there will
be significant changes to the US’ East Asia policy. It is expected that the US
will slowly retreat from this region, a reversal of Obama’s “pivot to Asia.” The
withdrawal may take a while as the US still has substantial interests in the
Asia-Pacific region. For example, the retreat may take the form of a
cooperation with China, such as collegiality. It would be different from
Obama’s opposing and competitive stand against China. The US may share some
power with China in the Asia-Pacific region but at the same time will want
China to undertake some responsibilities as well.

Trump will slowly
cut support to long-time US allies, and Japan will be the most affected. The
Japanese have lost their chance to become a first-rate country. It will be in a
fix for the next two decades as it cannot depend entirely on the US yet has to
watch its back for China. The country will be torn between the US and China for
a very long time to come, as it does not want to be an appendage to China yet
it is getting cold shoulder from the US.

Even if Trump will be harsh
on China, he would still agree to exchange interests with China.

Another important
change in East Asian geopolitics would be US’ policy on the Korean Peninsula.
Both the US and China agree that North Korea should not have nuclear weapons.
However, China believes that the North Korea nuclear problem is caused by the
US. If the US reduces its presence in the Korean Peninsula and the alliance
between the US and South Korea changes, the THAAD deployment issue will be
solved. This will pose a big challenge for China too. If the US reduces its
influence on the Korean Peninsula, China will have to take ownership of the
North Korean nuclear problem. It will be a huge responsibility on China’s part
to ensure the denuclearization of North Korea.

Southeast Asia will also be affected, as the US plays an important balancing role
in the region.

The effect of a
Trump presidency on Russia will be great. If the US retreats from the world,
Russia will become an imperial country again. Historically, Russia has shown
its adeptness in playing the geopolitics game. It will first occupy the
geopolitical spaces vacated by the US, such as the Middle East. Second, it will
start to target the small countries around its periphery. Third, it will get
into loggerheads with NATO. All these will affect China greatly. Some Chinese
scholars have said that China and Russia will form an alliance. On the
contrary, I think China and Europe will form a friendly relation to combat
Russia. With a weak US, the fault lines between China and Russia will be
exposed.

Russia, just like
the US, has a tradition of imperial expansionism. China and Europe, having no
geopolitical clashes, will become more friendly with each other as they have
strong economic ties. China has set up the 16+1 platform with Central and
Eastern Europe. Western Europe is worried that this initiative will split the
European Union (EU). However, if Russia becomes an enemy of the EU, then the
relationship between EU and China will turn for the better.

Trump’s presidency
will affect China the most. China should not wrongly assume that the US is
going downhill. In fact, China should not try to kick the US out of the Asia-Pacific
region, as it needs the US to play the important role of peace keeper for the
world. Even if Trump will be harsh on China, he would still agree to exchange
interests with China.

China was once
beaten by imperialism, leading to the loss of geopolitical influence over Hong
Kong, Macau, Taiwan, the South China Sea, etc. With China now on an ascending
trajectory, its geopolitical influence will definitely expand. Even if its
future economic growth remains at 5-6 percent, China will still become the
world’s biggest economy. Many Southeast Asian countries will get closer to
China; Malaysia and the Philippines are currently adjusting their relationships
with China, next will be Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, etc. But the adjustment will
be carried out over a long period of time.

China’s
geopolitical influence will have a major impact on political systems in the
region. In the past, political systems in East Asia were influenced by Western
geopolitics. Now, under the geopolitical influence of China, Hong Kong will be
the first to feel the impact. Its current “One Country Two Systems” structure
may gradually morph into “One Country” only. Similarly, Taiwanese politics will
be directly affected.

China should view
this critical transformation with rationality. It might lead to a breakthrough
in solving the Taiwan issue. In terms of trade and economy, China and Taiwan
are linked inextricably. Tsai Ing-wen, since becoming the leader of Taiwan, has
refused to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus in the “One China” framework. China
did not really act on it, but a drop in tourist arrivals from mainland China
has already had a negative impact on Taiwan’s economy. If China decides to come
down harder on Taiwan in terms of policy actions, the Taiwanese economy will suffer
even more. Thus, it is possible to solve the Taiwan issue peacefully.

Although some
Southeast Asian countries will lean closer to China, it does not mean that
China will change their political systems. However, they will adjust themselves
to achieve coexistence with the Chinese system. Asia has all along been a
region that exemplifies “unity in diversity;” it will find common ground for
mutual development in the absence of an external superpower like the US.

IPP
Review: Should China be prepared for trade protectionism from the US?

We should not hold
Trump to his words said during the election. There is much difference between
election rhetoric and policies. Basically, I believe that the US needs to
adjust its neoliberal globalization. I do not quite believe that the US will
build a wall on the Mexican border and that the US will shut its doors to the
outside world. The US is strong because of its openness; if it closes up, its
decline will be faster. This is not what Trump wants; he wants to “Make America
Great Again.”

The most Trump can
do is to amend, not abolish free trade. There will be disruptions to US-China
trade, but it does not mean that globalization will wind to a halt after Trump
becomes president. There are people who say that the US has a tradition of
isolationism. My view is that the US did isolate itself before 1890. However,
during that period, it expanded itself peripherally and was only closed off to
world affairs.

The US has
interests all over the world. What the US needs to do is to adjust and protect,
but not retract, its interests. Trump, or any other US presidents, would not be
able to withdraw US interests. That is because the White House cannot control
Wall Street and US enterprises. In the short term, the US economy will be
affected by new Trump policies, but they should not make any major impact over
the long term.

Initiatives like
the TPP will meet their end. I expect Trump to emphasize on bilateral free
trade, in the form of bilateral free trade agreements between the US and major
economies. It is easier to achieve fairness in bilateral free trade, so China
should not be too worried.

About The Author

Yongnian Zheng is Professor and Director of East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. He is Editor of Series on Contemporary China (World Scientific Publishing) and Editor of China Policy Series (Routledge). He is also a co-editor of China: An International Journal. He has studied both China's transformation and its external relations. His papers have appeared in journals such as Comparative Political Studies, Political Science Quarterly, Third World Quarterly and China Quarterly. He is the author of 13 books, including Technological Empowerment, De Facto Federalism in China, Discovering Chinese Nationalism in China and Globalization and State Transformation in China, and coeditor of 11 books on China's politics and society including the latest volume China and the New International Order (2008).
Besides his research work, Professor Zheng has also been an academic activist. He served as a consultant to United Nation Development Programme on China's rural development and democracy. In addition, he has been a columnist for Xinbao (Hong Kong) and Zaobao (Singapore) for many years, writing numerous commentaries on China's domestic and international affairs.
Professor Zheng received his B.A. and M.A. degrees from Beijing University, and his Ph.D. at Princeton University. He was a recipient of Social Science Research Council-MacArthur Foundation Fellowship (1995-1997) and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Fellowship (2003-2004). He was Professor and founding Research Director of the China Policy Institute, the University of Nottingham, United Kingdom.