Monday, April 22, 2013

At the heart of the Washington Nationals’ 2-0 loss to the New York Mets on Sunday was one at-bat that left Jayson Werth sitting in front of his locker staring into the abyss.

With runners on first and second and no outs, and left-hander Scott Rice having thrown six straight balls—and seven balls in his last eight pitches—Werth swung at a 3-0 pitch and ground into a double play. It squashed the Nationals’ best scoring chance, though hardly their only one, and left him dejected. [...]

“I just got caught up in the moment,” Werth said. “Just really, looking back, trying to do too much. Trying to win the game right there. I can sit here and talk about the situation but, I just tried to do too much. The situation got the best of me. Probably one of the dumber things I’ve done on the field in a while.

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The most baffling baseball play I've seen this year, and I can't offhand think of any that I saw last year that were worse either. Is there really any mental error you can make worse than this and not lose? A 3-0 count, facing a truly terrible lefty, where if you walk you've got the bases loaded and nobody out.

Werth's GIDP was worth 19.8% WPA for the Mets and it'd be even more accounting for the count and the intangibles that WPA can't account for. If not for the GIDP you're looking at having to consider bringing in Parnell for a six out save or for the eighth inning alone and hope he can strike everyone out. It was a gift.

Without seeing the pitch I'll just say that I wish MLB players swung a LOT more on 3-0 than they currently do. Obviously it should be a very targeted situation where you look for one very specific pitch in one very specific location but it drives me nuts when guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark are taking all the way. You probably aren't going to get a more hittable pitch than the 3-0 pitch and sitting idly by while it splits the plate in half just seems like a bad play to me.

Without seeing the pitch I'll just say that I wish MLB players swung a LOT more on 3-0 than they currently do. Obviously it should be a very targeted situation where you look for one very specific pitch in one very specific location but it drives me nuts when guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark are taking all the way.

I feel like the 3-0 strike zone is so big, that you don't actually get such great pitches to hit. Add that to the extra anxiousness factor when you do get the 3-0 green light, I think most hitters in most situations are better of taking.

Aren't hitting numbers on 3-0 basically monstrously good? Granted, there's massive selective sampling in that very few bad 3-0 pitches are swung at, but I don't think giving an experienced hitter that understands the situation a green light is a bad idea. The problem isn't Werth swinging at a 3-0 pitch, it's swinging poorly at a 3-0 pitch.

Without seeing the pitch I'll just say that I wish MLB players swung a LOT more on 3-0 than they currently do. Obviously it should be a very targeted situation where you look for one very specific pitch in one very specific location but it drives me nuts when guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark are taking all the way. You probably aren't going to get a more hittable pitch than the 3-0 pitch and sitting idly by while it splits the plate in half just seems like a bad play to me.

As snapper suggests, if the pitcher is wild, no, it isn't a good idea. If the pitcher has good command and has missed three close pitches, yes, I think swinging, selectively, 3-0 makes good sense. Given the situation in this game, it was a terrible decision .

Any non-2 strike hitting numbers are monstrously good, because strikeouts are not part of the denominator. The huge jump in OPS at 3-0 and 3-1 is that now walks become part of the numerator. Batting average stays about the same as the other no strike counts, slug goes up a bit. But OBP, which for other non 3 ball counts is merely BA, goes up 600 points.

For the record, the pitch that Werth swung on was Ball 4. It wasn't particularly close, either.

Werth has a lot of plate discipline and sees more pitches per AB than pretty much anyone in the Majors, so aside from the soul-crushing context of this particular failure, I'm willing to forgive him. It's not a habit of his. But urgh, what a time to behave uncharacteristically.

The Washington Post also had a very good article about this particular at-bat, where Werth both acknowledges it was an inexcusable ####-up and then, intriguingly, explains the thought process that went into the decision. It was clearly the wrong decision in this case, but the more interesting takeaway is that his discussion of the process itself makes clear Werth normally thinks very carefully about the strategy of his ABs.

The Washington Post also had a very good article about this particular at-bat, where Werth both acknowledges it was an inexcusable ####-up and then, intriguingly, explains the thought process that went into the decision. It was clearly the wrong decision in this case, but the more interesting takeaway is that his discussion of the process itself makes clear Werth normally thinks very carefully about the strategy of his ABs.

People screw up. Smart people do really dumb things. This was a bad screw up but it wasn't unforgiveable.

2) is easier. No. It was a sinker low and away. Unlike Eso, I think it was a strike on the black. Regardless, it was a pitch he tried to pull -- a pitch you can't pull. He rolled over on it. Someone pointed out that there were something like only 11 3-0 GIDP all last year. Yay.

1) is the tougher question, and I think the answer is HELL YES. You have a crappy lefty on the mound against someone who can mash lefties. You have two left-handed bats on deck. And 3-0, you know you're probably going to get a BP fastball. I want my big right-handed bat swinging away every damn time there -- provided he's actually swinging at that BP fastball.

Werth usually has enough command of the strike zone to do well in that situation, but for whatever reason, he didn't ID the pitch properly, or was too eager... It didn't work out.

But I don't think the results from choice 2 invalidates the other likely correct decision.

1) is the tougher question, and I think the answer is HELL YES. You have a crappy lefty on the mound against someone who can mash lefties. You have two left-handed bats on deck. And 3-0, you know you're probably going to get a BP fastball. I want my big right-handed bat swinging away every damn time there -- provided he's actually swinging at that BP fastball.

In a situation where the lefty pitcher is effective at getting lefty hitters out, I would agree with you. This is not one of those cases. It's unlikely that Scott Rice will prove effective at getting any batters out at the ML level ... and even if he did, I don't think he's shown as drastic of a platoon split as you might expect from a lefty reliever.

So yeah, #2, he shouldn't have swung at that pitch, and #1, also, swinging on 3-0 there was the wrong call against Rice.

The problem with your analysis is the pitcher was wild; he'd thrown 6 straight balls. You must make him throw a strike before you swing.

Even if he grooves 3-0, odds are, he's missing badly on 3-1 or 3-2.

Yes, and if he doesn't miss with the 3-1 or the 3-2, the chance of it being a get-me-over meatball are pretty good. The pitcher has just as nonexistent margin for error on 3-1 and 3-2 as he did on 3-0.