Summary

Real economic growth will remain subdued throughout most of the long-term forecast period. However, economic diversification investment projects will sustain robust growth until 2030, before slowing thereafter. There remains potential for bursts of high growth if further gas export projects, beyond those planned for the mid-2020s, are approved by the government. Diversification and the expansion of the services sector, funded by the state's hydrocarbons wealth, will also provide opportunities for growth. The population will continue to increase, largely through immigration, to 3.8m in 2050. As a result, growth in real GDP per head will be much slower than growth in real GDP.