Leading 19-0 after 20 minutes against the side they have never beaten; still ahead with 30 seconds to go and on the attack; 30 seconds from the greatest win of their lives. And then the referee awards one of those nothing penalties against them, and we all know what happens next. Seconds away from history becomes defeat number 27 to the All Blacks. How could this collection of Ireland's finest ever bring themselves to play again?

Paul O'Connell did and he is refreshingly breezy about it. "I played five days later," he says with a shrug. "Against Gwent Dragons. Which I was delighted to do, because you have to go back home, relearn your lineout calls, relearn a whole new defensive language, a whole new attack language. So you do move on very quickly."

Munster won at the Dragons that day, then went on to put nearly 40 past Perpignan in the next round of the Heineken Cup a mere fortnight after the defeat to end all defeats. Leinster put 40 past Northampton on the same weekend. In Northampton. So, against all rational expectation, they all played again, and did it very well.

It turns out it is the coach who really suffers. Joe Schmidt had been in charge of Ireland for two games at that point. The New Zealand autumn international was game No3, against the land of his birth. "It took me a while to bury it," he admits. "And that's a frustration, having been used to club coaching, where even if you're a little bit hurt by a result you've got another game coming up. I've found that very tough. Like a recurring nightmare. And it's still the last game we played, so I can't wait for Scotland. I just hope the same thing doesn't happen."

It was over Christmas that Schmidt gathered the Ireland squad to rake over what had happened that fateful day at the Aviva Stadium.

"It was a tough video session," O'Connell says. "The whole camp over Christmas was tough, because a lot of the issues from that game were repeated. And repeated several times. And repeated slowly. You find yourself looking at the screen, telling yourself to get off the ground, because you know what is coming next. Certainly, it is something that will haunt us for some time. But we are back in the Six Nations and if we can use that to kickstart something special for the team, it's not the end of the world."

Since the Six Nations began, Ireland's seemingly congenital affinity for the near-miss has borne itself out time and again. They have claimed more second-place finishes than anyone, with six out of 14 – three of those on points difference; one, in 2007, by four points of difference, settled by last-minute tries in Rome and Paris. But just the one outright win, a grand slam in 2009, their second in history. Since then, despite the dominance of their provinces at Heineken Cup level, they have not threatened to win it again.

"It's hard to put your finger on," O'Connell says. "We've been very close. In the mid-2000s we were always one game away. There was massive relief when 2009 finally happened. Since then it has been very frustrating. We don't have 14 teams to choose from, like France, so injuries can hurt us. But there is an excellent work ethic in the camp, and we will be consistent. I think we have a great chance."

Nevertheless, injury has already done its bit. Schmidt identifies the development of squad depth as one of his priorities, a point all the more sharpened by the loss of Sean O'Brien, man of the match against the All Blacks and one of the selections that transformed the Lions for the Third Test in Australia. He is out of the championship, as is Keith Earls, and if we see anything of Tommy Bowe, Donncha Ryan, Simon Zebo or Richardt Strauss it will be on the back of precious little game time.

Let us not underestimate the influence of Schmidt. After coaxing Munster to glory in the Heineken Cup, Declan Kidney took Ireland to a grand slam at the first attempt. Schmidt now takes a turn after three trophy-laden years at Leinster, which have included back-to-back Heineken Cup titles. O'Connell already senses a new purpose in camp. "There are certain things Joe wants us to do," he says, "and if you want to be able to do them physically and with aggression in a game they have to be second nature. After those four weeks together in the autumn they were second nature by the time we played New Zealand."

The bookies, as they routinely have of late, make Ireland fourth favourites. That seems wrong, but then it does every year, and every year since 2009 it has proven just about right. What is without doubt is that if they click, if they play as they did against the All Blacks (and not as they did the week before in a lame defeat to Australia), the championship – a grand slam, indeed – is well within their grasp.

And we have not even mentioned Brian O'Driscoll. The finest player of a generation will never beat the All Blacks, but a second Six Nations title would be fitting. Whatever happens in Paris on the final weekend, we can be sure that he, at least, will never play rugby for Ireland again. He won't want to finish on another near-miss, nor should he have to.