Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising
to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams'
inability to close the deal in your fantasy postseason or just aren't
ready to hang up your owner's hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football
may be just the thing you need to end this season right.

I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week animal, but that
doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most profitable
fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season even better.
For better or for worse, I want to share my experience with you
(no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph you
may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.

For the first time in my “fantasy career", I'll be
taking part in multiple playoff leagues this year. I will compete
in one free league with CBS Sportsline and two money leagues with
Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks will
be to help each of you through your decision-making process as
you attempt to boost your bottom line.

Choose a starting lineup of eight NFL players. You will have
300 units (or salary cap dollars) to "spend" assembling
your team. You will be able to change your lineup, without penalty,
until the lineup setting deadline for the Wild Card Playoff Round.
Once your lineup locks for the Wild Card Playoff Round, you will
have eight lineup moves to make for the remainder of the postseason.
You may use as many of the moves allotted in any round as you
would like, however, you will not be able to exceed the eight
moves allotted for the remainder of the postseason. In case
there was any doubt, the number listed by each player is their
“cap number”.

What this means for you: Pick
as many winners (team, not individual) as you can for your lineup
this week. For the most part, it's not good strategy to use any
more than three players from any one team simply because an upset
or two can severely hamper your ability to make roster moves later.
Of course, you are also trying to score the most points each week,
so there is a delicate balance between the present and the future.
Generally speaking, if you can get at least four players on your
Wild Card week roster that you would be willing to keep on your
roster all the way through to the Super Bowl, you'll probably
be in good shape. Ideally, I'll need about three roster moves
next week, two for the AFC and NFC Championship Games and the
last three for the Super Bowl. But at least for this week, the
goal is to get the highest-scoring lineup out there that the cap
will allow and contemplate the future when this week's games are
decided.

It's not even close to funny how far from grace this team has
fallen so quickly. Let's see if I can't do this week with five
players – Brees, Addai, Wayne, Colston and Clark –
what I haven't been able to do with a full roster (for the most
part) over the last two playoff weeks - score more than 85 total
points. Bear in mind that I am out of roster moves, so my explanations
will be brief and based on who I would play if I could.

QB: Manning. It's hard to lose
with either option here, but for me, it comes down to the opponent's
defense - as it usually does. The Colts' defense is a strong,
fundamental unit that does a great job of keeping the other team's
offense out of the end zone. The Saints' defense is one that thrives
on the pressure it generates and relies heavily on turnovers.
While Manning isn't impervious to feeling the effects of the blitz
or being rushed, he is now more machine than man (to quote a famous
Return of the Jedi quote) on the field. Early on in a
game, Manning is more prone to a throw-away or a sack, but rarely
does he ever take a body blow, even if that means falling under
the tackler before he has a chance to get hit. It doesn’t
take long, however, before he is routinely turning those plays
into five-to-eight-yard completions that result in a first down
or second- or third-and short. And unlike just about any QB I've
ever seen play, he generally has "figured out" whatever
nuance the opponent's defensive coordinator is trying to focus
on that week by the start of the second half, if not earlier.
The Saints' DC, Gregg Williams, is one of the best in the game
at his craft, but he isn't blessed with the personnel necessary
to reinvent his defense from one half to the next, one of the
many things that made Patriots HC Bill Belichick so successful
vs. Manning for so long. Williams' defense (at least this year's
edition) must blitz to create pressure, so while Indy may struggle
to score initially - as it has vs. Baltimore and New York –
Manning isn't prone to a high-turnover game and, thus, will have
a better opportunity to post yards and scores than Brees, who
must pass against a stingy defense that is unlikely to give up
more than 1-2 scores.

In all honesty, I think New Orleans would be best served by encouraging
the Colts to run in this game by giving Manning soft fronts (such
as a 3-3-5 defense) and the infamous "UFO" defense in
which one defender at most is in a three-point stance before the
snap while the others attempt to confuse the blocking assignments.
Certainly, no NFL defense can make a living by sticking with this
kind of defensive approach all game long, but any defensive tactic
that confound Manning for a couple series or more is a great thing,
especially to keep him a bit off-balance for what the Saints really
want to do from the start, which is blitz and get hits on him
early. Unlike any other QB in the game, a defense almost needs
to enter a game vs. the Colts with a first-half gameplan and an
almost entirely different plan of attack in the second half.

As explosive as the Saints are on offense, I’m not sure
they want to turn this game into a shootout. Giving Manning the
opportunity to throw 40+ times allows the Colts to play to their
strength; running the ball 30+ times does not. Conversely, New
Orleans is the better running team and its defense is better at
forcing turnovers, so it is in the team’s best interest
to make Indy score on 10-15 play drives as to give the defense
more opportunities to strip the ball.

RB2: Thomas. PT gave us all
another glimpse as to why he should be a feature back in the league
vs. Minnesota. Unfortunately, he can't seem to stay healthy for
owners (or HC Sean Payton) long enough for his coach to give him
an extended look in that role. However, Bush showed us vs. Dallas
the week before the very reason why Payton can't give Thomas a
long audition in the feature-back role. Thus, it's a guessing
game from week-to-week whether this will be the week where Bush's
8-10 touches will net a big-play TD or 40 total yards OR if Thomas
will turn his 15+ touches into a couple scores or 50-60 total
yards. Factor in Lynell Hamilton, who apparently now has a stranglehold
on the short-yardage carries, and it becomes very trying for a
fantasy owner to figure out which Saints back to plug into the
lineup. In the end, Thomas is the player who routinely sees the
most touches and, in situations such as this one, playing the
odds on who will get the most touches is still the best way to
go.

RB1: Addai. After showing next
to nothing in a 14-touch, 37-total yard effort vs. Baltimore,
Addai gave his owners a bit more production against the Jets in
a 17-touch, 93-total yard performance. Forgetting for just a moment
that he has faced two top defenses so far, most of Addai's fantasy
value this year came from his 13 total TDs, especially in a non-PPR
scoring format such as this one. As an actual RB, he has been
average at best for some time now, posting a 3.8 YPC this year
(and nothing more than 4.1 YPC) since his rookie season. His longest
run in the last three years has been 23 yards, meaning the odds
he is going to erupt vs. the Saints courtesy of a huge run are
minimal. With that said, Addai has not gone more than two games
all season without scoring a rushing TD and New Orleans has given
up at least one rushing score in six straight contests (including
two or more in three of those games), so despite the total lack
of sizzle that Addai brings to the table, the Colts' offense should
guarantee the fourth-year runner a RB1-worthy fantasy game.

WR2: Colston. As much as I
have applauded the Colts' defense to this point, it surprisingly
allowed a handful of huge receiving performances during the regular
season, including several to big WRs (Brandon Marshall, Andre
Johnson, and Randy Moss). While that trio could scorch any defense
at any time, the size of the numbers was what was eye-catching.
Marshall (21 catches) and Moss (9-179-2) were particularly outstanding.
The point to be made here is that even though Indy plays defense
the way it was meant to be played, it would seem at some point
it must pay for not having an elite CB to keep the opponent's
WR1 somewhat in check. Given New Orleans' attack philosophy, this
game has some potential in that regard. The Saints have been notorious
for spreading the wealth in the passing game over the past few
years, but I expect them to play catch-up at several points throughout
the game and a few forced throws into Colston sure sounds about
right to me. To his discredit, Colston hasn't been coming up with
the same catches on those "jam jobs" from Brees that
he was earlier in the season, but he is still the QB's most trusted
option.

WR1: Wayne. By all accounts,
Wayne played much better than I expected last week and produced
at a slightly higher fantasy level than I forecasted against Jets
CB Darrelle Revis. Granted, he didn't have a huge game, but Indy
didn't completely ignore him and even used formation (trips bunch)
in an effort to give him some pre-snap separation from Revis.
While the Saints' CBs are vastly improved from years past, I don't
suspect DC Gregg Williams will be doubling Wayne all that often,
especially in light of the games Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon
enjoyed vs. the Jets, not to mention the thought of TE Dallas
Clark running free down the middle of the field. Thus, I expect
a return to normalcy for Wayne in the Super Bowl (with a possible
SB MVP nod if the voters are completely blinded by the name and
greatness of Manning).

TE: Clark. This one's pretty
simple. Shockey continues to play through pain, stealing just
enough snaps from Thomas to make him a viable "cheap"
play for owners that still have a roster move or two they can
make. It’s also hard to ignore that Shockey will be playing
this game in the same city he played his college ball at years
ago, but he is a hard player to count on in fantasy due to his
propensity for injury. Despite a slew of double teams last week,
Clark still delivered in the end in fantasy. The Saints may subscribe
to the same aggressive defensive approach as the Jets do, but
the only area in which New Orleans routinely fares better is in
the turnover department. Yards and scores may be plentiful in
this game - and Clark should be a big part of it - so play him
and don't think twice about it.

K: Stover. I'd be mildly surprised
if there are any more than two FG attempts from any one kicker
in this game, so I'm not banking on a huge day from either Stover
or Hartley. But whereas I believe the Saints' offense may struggle
at times throughout the game to move the ball, I don't think the
Colts will all that often. This game should be high-scoring, but
I see many of New Orleans' points coming later in the game in
a comeback attempt, meaning Hartley won’t be kicking all
many field goals. I'll take two FGs from Stover and about four
XPs.

DST: Colts. I'd be very tempted
to take the Saints' defense if it wasn't for the fact that they
were facing the Colts. Manning probably isn't going to throw all
that many INTs and Indy just doesn't fumble a great deal or give
up a lot of sacks (six fumbles, 13 sacks allowed during the regular
season). Thus, I'd be hoping for a Reggie Bush punt return or
Courtney Roby kick return would end up in the end zone, which
is just another thing I don't think Indianapolis is going to let
happen, even if that means punting the ball out of bounds to make
Bush a non-factor. It's not as if the Colts are going to pile
up the sacks or turnovers themselves, but they are more apt to
hold the Saints to a respectable point total than the other way
around.

Fuzzy's playoff format is much more streamlined than Sportsline's.
Fuzzy's uses traditional PPR scoring (all TDs worth six points)
with no salary cap, no limit on roster moves between rounds and
no yards allowed bonuses for the defenses. In short, your goal
is to pick the highest-scoring lineup each week with no strings
attached. The main difference outside of the ones I've already
mentioned is that Fuzzy's leagues contain no more than 50 teams
whereas Sportsline employs a one-man-against-the-world approach.
As a result, 20% of the entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues
will - at the very least - recoup their entry fee, with first
through ninth place receiving a nice bonus for their troubles.

(Because the players/matchups are same as they are above, I'll
skip the step of mentioning each player again and get right to
my choices.)

QB: Manning. I'll give the nod
in this high-powered QB battle to Manning – who brings more
weapons to the party this week than does Brees – against
a defense that is of lesser quality than the two he has already
faced in the playoffs. The Saints may be able to get a few shots
on Manning throughout the game, but I suspect Manning will be
landing a few more “big blows” than will Gregg Williams'
charges.

RB: Addai and Thomas. Reggie Bush
will remain a consideration for me all week, but if there is one
defense that probably doesn't mind lining up against him, it is
the speedy Colts defense. Thomas has many of the same abilities
that Bush does, but is a better power rusher and inside runner
than his former Heisman Trophy-winning teammate. Addai is a fairly
similar fantasy back to Thomas (in terms of touches, ability to
score and overall role), but has been able to keep Donald Brown
from securing too big of a role in the offense. I'm not expecting
huge point totals from either player, but I do believe each RB
will find the end zone.

HC Sean Payton supposedly told Bush on Media Day that he “should
be ready to have his tongue hanging out” (or something to
that effect) at the end of Sunday’s game. Bush’s biggest
workload this season was 16 touches in Week 3 – the week
in which Thomas returned from his preseason knee injury. Meanwhile,
Thomas routinely gets at least 16 touches. Ultimately, whether
Thomas or Bush fares better will boil down to the type of game
that breaks out – if the game is close throughout, Thomas
and Hamilton will probably bear the load. If the Saints consistently
find themselves 7-10 points down for most of the game, Bush could
easily rack up 6-8 catches and find himself as New Orleans’
best fantasy RB this week. It should be noted that Bush hasn’t
strung together three straight double-digit fantasy games since
Weeks 1-3…of the 2008 season. (In case you were wondering,
he’s on a two-game streak of 10+ points.) On the other hand,
Thomas is on an eight-game run of 10 or more fantasy points in
PPR leagues.

WR: Wayne, Colston and Collie/Garcon.
It's pretty telling that a matchup between two Super Bowl teams
can produce more worthy fantasy options than starting slots, but
the Colts and Saints have exactly that. I detailed Wayne and Colston
above, so I'll focus on the young Indy WR duo here. In terms of
a team's third option in the passing game, Collie is a bit more
of a constant while Garcon is more of a wild-card. As much as
I don't believe in streakiness in a week-to-week sport like football,
Garcon's numbers have been exactly that all season long. After
posting a single-digit fantasy performance in the season opener
(after Anthony Gonzalez went down), Garcon posted 10+ points in
his next three games. After three subpar performances followed
that stretch, the Mount Union grad had double-digit fantasy performances
in each of his next five contests. Four straight poor games followed
that run before he blew up in the AFC Championship. Meanwhile,
Collie hasn't turned in more than one bad PPR game in a row since
Weeks 1-3 (understandable for a rookie). In fact, he has posted
fewer than 10 points only once since Week 11. Thus, I'm going
to ride Collie in the $25 league that I need "reliable points"
while I'm going to hope for another huge game from Garcon in the
$50 league in which I have significant ground to make up.

Devery Henderson has stepped in for an injured Robert Meachem
and produced TDs in both of the Saints' playoff games so far,
but I just can't see the Colts giving up that much to a one-trick
pony like Henderson. This game could be one in which Lance Moore
steps up, but I just can't allow myself to play him when I have
a healthier, more reliable option like Collie.

TE: Clark. For the reasons I specified
above, Clark is the clear play here.

K: Stover/Hartley. I believe Stover
is the play, which is why I am rolling with him in the league
in which I am currently two points out of first place. Obviously,
I'm hoping that Hartley outperforms Stover for my $50 team as
I could use every single point I can muster from my team this
week in an effort to climb back on the leaderboard.

D/ST: Colts/Saints. The long and
short of this selection is that I feel the Colts have a better
chance to give up fewer points than do the Saints. For my $50
team, I'm going to hope for that return TD I don't think will
happen and a few forced fumbles.

All in all, I expect a well-played, fairly high-scoring game
from both teams with very few turnovers and/or sacks. I don’t
expect a record-setting point total that some folks in the media
do, but Colts DE Dwight Freeney’s likely absence from this
game may make things very interesting