A new report from the Digital Forensic Research Lab uncovers a Tunisian company that used a sophisticated digital campaign involving multiple social media platforms and websites in an attempt to influence the country’s 2019 presidential election, as well as other recent elections in Africa.

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Issue Spotlight

Coronavirus

A global crisis

While global policymakers race to contain the new coronavirus strain, the outbreak has already disrupted world travel and supply chains. The crisis is challenging the strength of societies and could imperil economic growth throughout the world.

Since COVID-19 began to spread within the United States in January of this year, the United States has been concentrating its efforts on mitigating the crisis at both a state and federal level. However, all efforts at containing the growing cybersecurity problems have been surface level and reactive at best.

Upcoming events

#ACFRONTPAGE EVENT – As COVID-19 accelerates existing global trends and tensions, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg discusses how the Alliance is embracing this new normal and preparing for the next decade and beyond.

Commentary and analysis

In the wake of economic calamity, now is the perfect time for European militaries to work together to maximize their resources and military readiness. No better opportunity exists than to use HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales as hubs for a European carrier strike group.

As the world economy shuts down to try to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, the humanitarian collateral effects of sanctions become more pronounced and potentially deadly. But the argument that the United States should unilaterally roll back sanctions draws a false dichotomy; sanctions do not have to be suspended or rolled back for the United States to better address humanitarian concerns.

“The decision by the EU foreign ministers to open accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania comes at a time when Europe is battling a major public health crisis and is bracing for its economic aftershocks,” Dimitar Bechev says. “Keeping enlargement alive speaks volumes about the union’s ability to muddle through.”

In-depth research and reports

A Tunisia-based company operated a sophisticated digital campaign involving multiple social media platforms and websites in an attempt to influence the country’s 2019 presidential election, as well as other recent elections in Africa. In an exclusive investigation that began in September 2019, the DFRLab uncovered dozens of online assets with connections to Tunisian digital communications firm UReputation. On June 5, 2020, after conducting its own investigation, Facebook announced it had taken down more than 900 assets affiliated with the UReputation operation, including 182 user accounts, 446 pages, and 96 groups, as well as 209 Instagram accounts. The operation also involved the publication of multiple Francophone websites, some going back more than five years.

As Russia’s economic future is clouded by negative demographic trends, new energy technologies and efficiencies, volatile commodity prices, and the likelihood of continued Western sanctions, Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia’s two natural resource champions face a comeuppance: international competition, global and regional market access, capital investment, and revenue/cost efficiency.

Nations in Europe’s northeast cooperate through a variety of multilateral security and defense arrangements. “Geometries of Deterrence” assesses how these arrangements individually and collectively contribute to deterrence and defense in Northeastern Europe.

Flagship events

The Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum is the go-to conference on the geopolitics of the energy transformation, where energy and foreign policy leaders come together to set the energy agenda for the year and examine the longer-term geopolitical and geo-economic implications of the changing energy system. Held in Abu Dhabi 10-12 January under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates Armed Forces, the forum is held in partnership with the UAE Ministry of Energy and Industry, ADNOC, and Mubadala, and is part of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week.

Among the most significant events on the Washington calendar celebrating global leaders, the Distinguished Leadership Awards is one of the Atlantic Council’s flagship convenings – bringing together a global audience of over 800 guests from more than fifty countries–including global policymakers, business leaders, military brass, and top-tier media.

From the Atlantic Council’s Blogs

NATO cannot safeguard the coalition’s interests unilaterally. Strategic investments in NATO Special Operations Forces (SOF) to expand the NATO SOF Network will provide political and military leaders the full range of options in response to emerging threats—both hybrid and conventional—through strong partnerships within the Alliance and with partners.

Turkey’s experience on the key issues such as jobs and employment should be examined as lessons for both refugee hosting countries and donor countries alike. The country has provided Syrians under Temporary Protection the right to access work permits and formal employment. But more can be done to help facilitate refugees’ access to decent employment.

Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative

Mathew J. Burrows

Director

Dr. Mathew J. Burrows serves as the director of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He was appointed counselor to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in 2007 and director of the Analysis and Production Staff (APS) in 2010.

AI’s increasing range of applications are having real-world consequences, both positive and negative. Those consequences, in turn, have animated spirited and at times emotional debates about how governments can craft policies to come to grips with a world increasingly shaped by AI.

Our conclusion in 2016’s Global Risks 2035 was that state-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism. In the two years since, the post-Cold War order has continued to unravel without a “new normal” emerging.

Critical Issues

Resilience

The growing threats of climate change, migration, natural disasters, and spillover from violent conflict are forcing policy makers to focus on the resilience of their societies and institutions. While not all crises can be avoided, societies can be made more resilient through proper preparation before, during, and after a disaster or shock occurs.

Disinformation

The rise of the internet and online social networks has altered the scope and scale at which people access, consume, and communicate information. But the same technologies that have democratized access to information have also enabled malicious actors who seek to undermine our democratic values and processes. Disinformation is false or misleading information spread with the intention to deceive.

NATO

NATO is the bedrock of transatlantic security, encompassing nearly thirty democracies across North America and Europe. Created to defend against the Soviet Union, the Alliance today protects member states against conventional attack, engages in peacekeeping and stabilization operations, and leads counterterrorism and piracy efforts. NATO works with partner countries around the world and continues to promise an “open door” for countries to become members if they fulfill the Alliance’s democratic and operational standards.

Critical Regions

Africa

A continent of fifty-four nations, Africa holds vast opportunity and promise. Its 1.2 billion population is expected to double by 2050 and become the world’s largest region. Alongside this demographic boom, Africa is home to almost half the world’s fastest-growing economies as its leaders are taking steps to expand the movement of goods, people, and capital within the continent. Demand for democracy is high and protest movements have proven that citizen activism can unseat consolidated African strongmen.

Europe & Eurasia

Stretching from the shores of the Atlantic to the mountains of Central Asia, the European and Eurasian landmass contains both some of the most stable and wealthy countries in the world, as well as some of the poorest and those led by repressive regimes. After centuries of devastating conflicts, new institutions and organizations for economic, political, and security integration provide an opportunity to bring stability

Middle East

Stretching from the Western Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, the Middle East continues to be a region struggling with violent conflict, political repression, and poor development. Numerous pro-democracy protest movements, a burgeoning youth population, and efforts to reform governments and lessen economic dependence on oil, however, are causes for optimism. The United States and the international community must remain engaged with the region to provide support for these positive moves and to address the many remaining challenges.

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