Broncos, Patriots, Texans have sights set on a title

It takes 16 games over four months for the NFL to divide the haves from have nots.

Then the six-team AFC playoff field is set, and by all appearances they can divvy up the haves from have nots, again.

"I think you can put these six teams into three groups," said Charley Casserly, who helped construct the Washington Redskins' Super Bowl-winning teams of 1982, 1987 and 1991. "You have the top three teams -- Houston, Denver and New England. Then you have Baltimore. Then you have your two wild card teams."

Allow the Broncos to serve as the equator to this AFC tournament. The Broncos fell behind by at least 20 points to Houston and New England earlier this season before narrowing their margin of defeat.

But the Broncos also handily thumped the Baltimore Ravens, who currently have the AFC's No. 4 seed, and the Cincinnati Bengals, who are locked in at No. 6, on the road.

The Broncos will carry a 10-game winning streak into their final regular season game Sunday against Kansas City. If they can make it 11 in a row, they will get a first-round bye and a second-round home playoff game.

"Denver is the best team right now," Casserly said. "Best team offensively. Best balance. Best defense. Best combination of offense-defense. They have to be the favorite going into it."

Hold on. The elephant in the room is starting to stomp.

"The issue with Denver," Casserly said, "is going to be the New England Patriots."

There it is.

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To a man, the Broncos won't get there. To them, it's all about one week at a time. It's all about the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

But at some point, if the Broncos are to help Peyton Manning go home for the Super Bowl in New Orleans, they most likely will have to defeat Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots in a win-or-else playoff game in January.

And it's not just Manning who has carried along a Patriots' albatross. Jack Del Rio is 0-6 as former Jacksonville head coach and current Broncos defensive coordinator against the Pats.

Broncos head coach John Fox is 1-5 against Belichick and Brady, including losses in the 2003-season Super Bowl, last season's second-round playoff game and October's 31-21 loss in Foxborough, Mass.

By comparison, Manning's is 4-9, head-to-head record against Brady offers hope.

"If you're not on top of your game at the right time,it's difficult to progress and move on," said Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel, who was the Pats' defensive coordinator in their Super Bowl championship seasons of 2001, 2003 and 2004. "If you're hitting on the right cylinders, then you've got a great chance. You guys have got a 10-game winning streak going. Your offense is playing well. Your defense is playing well. You've got good special teams. So that all says that you guys would have a great chance."

Look at the past three Super Bowl winners. The 2009 New Orleans Saints brought a three-game losing streak into the postseason. The 2010 Green Bay Packers took a two-game losing streak and 8-6 record into Christmas Day. The 2011 New York Giants entered Christmas Eve with five losses in their previous six games.

Here's a look at the AFC playoff field:

1. Texans, 12-3

They seemed to be the conference's most complete team for much of this season, then Green Bay and New England -- teams with strong quarterbacks and the ability to spread out their receivers -- found holes in Houston's secondary with the exception of Johnathan Joseph.

And the Texans' zone running scheme, which complements quarterback Matt Schaub's play-action passes, has not been part of a Super Bowl winner since the 1998 Broncos.

Still, if the Texans win in Indianapolis on Sunday, they will have home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. And defensive tackle J.J. Watt can take control of a game.

2. Broncos, 12-3

Don't think of it as needing to win 14 in a row. Beating the Chiefs on Sunday is significant because a first-round bye would allow the Broncos to put their 11-game winning streak behind them and get on with their next three-game season.

And if they are to beat the Patriots, isn't playing the game in Denver a must?

3. Patriots, 11-4

Did you know Belichick and Brady have gone eight years without winning the Super Bowl? Somebody's been beating them. The Pats are vulnerable in their secondary as they rank 29th in the league by allowing 276 passing yards a game. Their pass rush isn't helping as their 30 sacks rank 22nd.

4. Ravens, 10-5

Here's the sleeper. Yes, they looked terrible two weeks ago against the Broncos. But see the 2009 Saints, 2010 Packers and 2011 Giants. The Ravens bounced back with an impressive 33-14 victory last week against the Giants. When the offense is clicking, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and a talented receiver group can provide balance.

And maybe the possible return of middle linebacker Ray Lewis can spark the defense the way safety Bob Sanders lifted Manning's 2006 Colts.

5. Colts, 10-5

Might be the frauds of the field. The only playoff team with a negative points differential and with a far from even -42 at that. New England is +195. The Broncos are +157.

Still, if the game is close late, rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is capable of delivering an upset.

6. Bengals, 9-6

The best defense among sea-level teams. The Bengals' Geno cq Atkins is the league's best pass-rushing defensive tackle.

But it's difficult to believe quarterback Andy Dalton is capable of going on a 3-0 run through the AFC tourney.

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