Mario Williams Is The Number 1 Free Agent Available This NFL Offseason

"Lost." Ron Jaworski affixed that label to Mario Williams following
the Houston Texans first preseason game of
2011. It was the former No.1 pick's debut performance as an
outside linebacker in the Texans 3-4 scheme. As a professional
television talking head, Jaworski gets paid to attach easy labels
to things but Jaws overlooked the fact that converting a
290-pound man from defensive end to outside linebacker is no easy
task.

In hindsight, Houston's decision to hire Wade Phillips as their
defensive coordinator in 2011, and move to the 3-4 defense, was
one of the better moves of the year. Many still had their doubts
about the move in August, mostly because of the decision to
remove Williams' hand from the dirt. Pundits continued on and on
about Williams' struggles throughout the NFL
preseason.

Then the regular season started. The Texans thrashed
the Colts in the opening week. Williams
picked up two sacks. Through the first five games of the season,
Williams picked up five sacks before suffering a season-ending
injury, tearing his pectoral muscle in a Week 5 loss to
the Raiders. Williams had 17 quarterback
pressures and two quarterback hits to go with those five sacks.
Not bad for a guy who was "lost."

Williams should be healed and ready to resume terrorizing
opposing quarterbacks in the 2012 season. The question is whether
or not he will be doing that with the Texans, the team that
shocked the world when they picked Williams with the top pick in
the 2006 NFL Draft, over Reggie Bush. Williams is a free agent this
year, easily the best free agent available in a deep class of
talent for hire.

The Case For Staying In Houston

Houston could use the franchise tag to retain Williams; however,
it will cost them a stunning $22 million ... for just one season
of play. They paid him $18 million for the final year of his
rookie contract.

Strapped for cash, the Texans are still expected to talk to
Williams about a contract. Already, though, it feels like a long
shot. Why stay in Houston? Why offer a hometown discount when the
market will make you the highest paid defensive player in league?

Losing top players that the franchise has already invested
heavily in is never a good thing. Rick
Smith, Houston's general manager, would be wise to make a
strong effort to hang onto a player of Williams' caliber.

Had injuries not devastated the Texans, they might have advanced
all the way to the AFC Championship game. They lost to
the Ravens in the divisional round. Not a
bad result, all in all, for a team that had never made the
playoffs in the history of the franchise. Having one of the top
defenses in league helped them get as far as they did in the
playoffs, despite being led by a rookie fifth-round quarterback.

Keeping Williams would almost be an embarrassment of riches for
the Texans' already elite defense. A unit that talented would
assure annual trips to the playoffs.

The Money

Williams leads a free agent class unusually stocked with
superstars. Peyton Manning could challenge him as
the highest paid free agent once the Colts let him go, but
Williams, in the prime of his career, is still the best free
agent on the market.

So what kind of money could he command this spring?

In 2011's lockout condensed free agent feeding frenzy,
the Carolina Panthers gave defensive
end Charles Johnson a six-year, $76
million contract, with $30 million guaranteed. Oakland
lined Richard Seymour's pockets with a
similar, but shorter deal, a two-year, $30 million extension.
Both teams overpaid, especially Oakland, but pass rushing comes
at a premium in the NFL these days.

Both deals would be the starting points for Williams' next
contract.

A deal like the one Washington gave Albert Haynesworth (oops!) in 2009
- seven-years, $100 million with $41 million guaranteed and more
available in incentives - is not out of the question for Williams
this year. Depending on Manning's deal, Williams should be the
highest paid player to hit free agency this year.

Potential Destinations

When considering likely landing spots for Williams, his position
has to be considered. Is he an 3-4 outside linebacker or a 4-3
defensive end?

What it boils down to is that Williams is a pass rusher,
regardless of position. He could thrive almost anywhere on the
field playing for a coaching staff that knows how to use his
considerable gifts. Williams is probably at his best playing as a
defensive end, and he will appeal to teams running a 4-3 defense.

Tennessee desperately needs a pass rusher after mustering just 28
sacks last season. Jacksonville would also make a nice landing
spot for Williams, especially if they let Jeremy Mincey get away in free agency.
New owner Shahid Khan could really make a splash with a move like
that. Buffalo is converting to a 4-3 this season, but
have quietly ruled themselves out of the
running for Williams, for now.

Miami will likely allow nose tackle Paul Soliai to walk as a free agent,
leaving more than $12 million in cap space. After a bad 2011
regular season, as well as being spurned by Jeff
Fisher, the Dolphins could be desperate to make a
big move. Much will depend on what they do about their
quarterback situation.

San Diego and Oakland are also possibilities that have been
mentioned. The Chargers really need a pass
rusher. Don Banks at SI.com even mentioned
the Packers as a potential dark horse.

There will be surprises releases and unforeseen moves so things
will undoubtedly change but Mario Williams in Miami makes a lot
of sense if they don't land Manning. Combining him with Cameron
Wake would give the Dolphins an elite pass rushing combo on
paper.