30-Sec Shot Clock (05/16/14)

By John Ewing

How would a 30-second shot clock in college basketball impact the game? We simulated the ACC season to find out.

The ACC will use a 30-second shot clock in exhibition games in the upcoming season. NCAA men's teams have used a 35-second shot clock since the 1993-94 season. How will a shortened shot clock impact the game? We re-simulated the 2013-14 seasons for each ACC team to find out.

As one might expect, possessions per team increased. On average, possessions per 40 minutes increased by 9.2%. The largest increase: Miami (FL) went from 58.5 to 64.5 possessions per game.

However, more possessions resulted in a decrease in offensive efficiency. Points per 100 possessions with a 30-second shot clock decreased on average by 1.8% across the ACC. The biggest decrease: Clemson went from 105.9 to 103.4 points per 100 possessions.

Finally, when we simulated the 2013-14 season again but with a 30-second shot clock, the expected winning percentage for each team did change but the standings remained relatively unaffected.

A shortened shot clock will increase scoring but unless a team adjusts its style of play to take advantage of the quicker possessions, it will be business as usual in the ACC.

Below are the Possession For and Points/100 Possessions For, with and without a 30-second shot clock as well as the change in win percentage expected.