HOUSING AND ECONOMIC DATA

Mortgage origination Conventional loans forecast for 1st quarter of 2017 is $290 Bn and will increase to $377 Bn in last quarter of 2017. Forecast for 1st quarter of 2018 is $250 Bn and will decrease to $334 Bn in last quarter of 2018. Forecast for 1st quarter of 2019 is $331 Bn and will decrease to $327 Bn in last quarter of 2019

Mortgage origination for FHA and VA decreased to $101 Bn in 4th quarter of 2017 compared to $112 Bn in the 2nd quarter of 2017. Forecast for 1st quarter of 2018 will be $75 Bn and last quarter of 2018 will be $106 Bn. Forecast for 1st quarter of 2019 will be $99 Bn and last quarter of 2018 will be $97 Bn

Mortgage origination Total forecast for 1st quarter of 2017 is $397 Bn and will increase to $478 Bn in last quarter of 2017. Forecast for 1st quarter of 2018 is $325 Bn and will increase to $440 Bn in last quarter of 2018. Forecast for 1st quarter of 2018 is $430 Bn and will increase to $424 Bn in last quarter of 2018

Refinancing Share Origination forecast for 1st quarter of 2017 is at 46% and will be 36% by the last quarter of 2017. Forecast for 2018 will be 35% in the 1st quarter and 23% in the last quarter. Forecast for 2019 will be 24% in the 1st quarter and 21% in the last quarter

Change in Residential Mortgage Debt is 4.1% in 3rd quarter of 2017. Forecast will increase to 4.3% in the last quarter. Forecast for 2018 will be 4.4% and will increase to 4.8% in the last quarter. Forecast for 2019 will be 5.0% and will increase to 5.5% in the last quarter

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Home Price Index in California increased to 8.2% in 4th Quarter of 2017. Los Angeles MSA led the Price Index at 8.4% followed by San Diego MSA at 8.1%, San Francisco MSA at 7.2% and Oxnard MSA at 6.4%

In Central Valley, Merced MSA increased to 10.9%, Stockton increased to 10.2% and Modesto MSA at 9.6% in 4th Quarter of 2017 compared to last year

In North Bay Area,Vallejo MSA leads the HPI at 10.1% followed by Santa Rosa MSA at 9.4% and Napa MSA at 6.9%. In their local area Visalia MSA also leads the HPI at 8.4% followed by San Luis Obispo MSA at 6.94% and Santa Barbara MSA at 4.5%

San Jose MSA increased to 7.8%, Sacramento MSA increased to 10.3% and Riverside MSA to 9.1%. Santa Cruz MSA leads the HPI at 7.5% followed by Salinas MSA at 6.9% .Fresno MSA leads the HPI at 9.0% followed by Bakersfield MSA at 4.2%