Our Manifestos

UK Media - Enjoy This 'Indian Summer' While You Can

I went along to an event this week entitled, ‘Making Money In the On Demand Media Age,’ hosted by consultancy boutique Oliver & Ohlbaum. The session had the feel of an investment bankers’ world view and, as a result, there were plenty of Grand Fromages in attendance including Lord Hollick, ex-media baron turned VC; the much-admired broadcasting player David Elstein; Patrick Barwise the formidable LBS Professor and Government advisor and new kids on the block such as Richard Halton, CEO of the nascent UK web TV service YouView. The initial presentation was a Meeker-esque onslaught of macro trends, backed up with some proprietary research that the room lapped up with a verve suggesting sober, grown-up analysis of the new broadcasting world is thin-on-the ground. My overall impression of the hundred or so people in the room was something akin to a Monaco casino packed with high-rollers working out where to lay their next chips. You could almost hear the neuro-based balance sheets ticking over as the analysis developed. Among the many nuggets thrown out for the pack to chew on was that the recent speedier-then-expected recovery in the UK’s media markets might be something of a mirage. One effect of the corporate axe being wielded in recent years is that profits have bounced back and there is a natural inclination for many big brands to invest straight back into what they know. However, Oliver & Ohlbaum see this as being an, ‘Indian Summer’ before the realities of, ‘long-term structural change’ take grip in a couple of years and a, ‘new industry structure’ emerges. What will this new world order look like? In short, no one knows and in the follow-on session...

...even new-world individuals like YouView’s boss wouldn’t be drawn on specifics, talking only about, 'new ecosystems' where ISPs, Content Kings and Consumer Electronics manufacturers of groovyware can live together in perfect, profitable harmony.

No such reticence from Professor 'Paddy' Barwise, however. He started his feedback with an attack on the digerati and their prophesysing of, ‘high-level bollocks’ over the last decade. And he was happy to name names with gurus such as Nicholas Negroponte coming in for a tongue-lashing. Barwise has an instinctive dislike of anything that isn’t rooted in hard data. Something I know first hand from a meeting with him a few years ago where I unwisely brought up The Cluetrain Manifesto; a document that the Emeritus Professor of London Business School immediately branded, ‘a joke’. His view can be, probably unfairly, boiled down to, 'Keep Calm And Carry On' : that the daily average 3.9 hours of television viewing in the UK is going to remain pretty well-represented by The Royle Family for some time to come. Maybe with some tinkering on the edges arising from web-based innovations such as social platforms. This theory is based on the Professor's belief that TV offers the human brain something it can not find elsewhere. Namely, the ability to switch off to a sufficient degree to forget the worries of the world and he looks forward to the neuro-scientists backing this up with some rigorous data. I'm not sure Barwise has much truck with ideas such as Clay Shirky's cognitive surplus.

I was curious that during the whole morning there seemed to be little mention of the role brands would play in this On-Demand world, other than as a passive source of revenue. Possibly because there’s a prevailing view developing that whatever this world looks like, it’s going to be financed increasingly by subscriptions and e-commerce. However, my question about this point provoked some interesting responses.

Professor Barwise indicated that he thought that it was all up-in-the-air for brands and that this made the role of strategic positioning and ‘brand promise’ all the more important. Secondly, he thought that the UK market would be the first in the world to understand what the new marketing mix looked like, because of its relatively high-penetration of digital channels. Additionally, the Prof believes that the ability to execute consistently across multiple channels will prove crucial although that was, ‘easier-said-than-done’. Interestingly, he also referred to the changing, ‘economics of response’, by which I think he meant that people now have so much powerful techno-gubbins in their homes that, having seen a branded message, they can then react in a growing number of complex ways.

Richard Halton, the YouView boss, pointed out that advertising wasn’t his concern as his new service will effectively be a one-stop-shop for online TV viewing with the various parts of his tricky consortium remaining responsible for their advertising revenues. A point I think that was crucial to the legislative progress of the YouView service and that did-in its predecessor Kangaroo, due to concerns about an online monopoly appearing. However, managing a service where different advertising teams are selling-in slots for the same platform doesn't sound like a recipe for an easy life.

So, in summary, a very interesting morning and thanks to Oliver & Ohlbaum for the invite. Overall, I couldn’t help but be reminded of Ariel Emmanuel's recent comments, when he braved this year's Silicon Valley Web 2.0 tech-fest. The Hollywood super-agent served up the views of Content Kings to the digerati including wryly noting that, ‘there’s no one answer anymore.'

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