The focus of the presentation was to understand how the wine industry has arrived at the situation it now finds itself in, and what the prospects might be for the next two decades out to 2030.

Boom-bust cycles have been a feature of the Australian wine industry since its birth in the mid-1800s. The latest boom period is defined as the period 1987-2004 where Australia fared extremely well both domestically and overseas. Many factors were in its favour. Since then however, a number of factors have come together in a perfect storm to produce this current downswing, including a strong Australian dollar, an increasingly competitive global market, changing market and marketing conditions and consumer preferences, and climactic factors.

Professor Anderson looked at the trends in wine production, consumption and trade in the Old World, New World and ‘rest of the world’ countries, particularly since 1980. The Old World refers to France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Germany, and the New World refers to the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Chile and South Africa. An interesting summary table of developments in shares of global wine production, consumption and trade are shown in the table below.

1980-84

2009

2009

volume

volume

value

Share of global production (%)

Old World 5

58

53

50

New World 6

18

26

30

Rest of the world

34

21

20

Share of global consumption (%)

Old World 5

53

28

60

New World 6

19

21

31

Rest of the world

28

41

9

Share of global exports (%)

Old World 5

76

34

67

New World 6

2

26

24

Rest of the world

22

40

9

Professor Anderson discussed the inherent strength of the Australian wine industry and the challenges lying ahead for producers and marketers.