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Deconstructing the Drop in Bush’s Job Approval Rating

by Jeffrey M. Jones and Joseph Carroll

The last two Gallup Polls measured the lowest job approval
ratings in George W. Bush's presidency (46% and 47%). Bush began
the year with a 60% job approval rating, still basking in the glow
of the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein in
mid-December. But as the year has progressed and the war in Iraq
has become increasingly problematic, most recently exemplified by
the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal, Bush's approval rating has
declined.

While events such as the prisoner abuse scandal help illustrate
why Bush's ratings may have fallen, they do not shed light on where
he is losing support. In order to assess this, Gallup analyzed
aggregated poll data* from early January (when Bush averaged a 60%
job approval rating), April (52%), and May (47%) to see how Bush's
rating has changed among key demographic and political subgroups.
These data allow for a comparison of subgroups' support for Bush at
three distinct stages of the year -- the early year high, the
initial drop to the low 50s that occurred in mid-January and
persisted at those levels until early May, and the drop to the
mid-40s in recent weeks.

The analysis shows that Bush's approval rating has dropped
across most demographic groups. The notable exception is
Republicans, who have remained extremely supportive of the
president since January (and throughout his presidency). The
initial drop from the 60% range to the mid-50s was most evident
among liberal Democrats and independents. His recent drop to the
mid-40s has occurred more among conservative Democrats and moderate
and liberal Republicans.

Partisanship

Of the most recent presidents, Bush's approval ratings have been
the most divided along party lines. In the May 21-23 CNN/USA
Today/Gallup poll, 89% of Republicans and only 12% of
Democrats approved of Bush, a gap of 77 percentage points. Dating
back to Harry Truman, no president has had a gap above 70 points
between Republicans and Democrats in a Gallup Poll in a re-election
year. Since January, Bush's approval rating has dropped among both
independents and Democrats. In January, 26% of Democrats approved.
That fell to 17% in April, and 13% in May. Independents' support
for Bush has fallen 19 points, from 58% in January to 39% in
May.

Meanwhile, Bush has been able to hold on to almost all of his
Republican support. His approval rating among Republicans was 92%
in January, 92% in April, and 89% in May.

Ideology

Bush's approval ratings have dropped among all ideological
groups, but less so among conservatives than liberals or moderates.
Sixty-nine percent of self-identified conservatives currently
approve of Bush, down slightly from 72% in April and 78% in
January. In January, 52% of self-described moderates approved of
Bush; now, only about two in five (39%) do. Since January, Bush's
support among self-identified liberals has been halved, from 33% to
16%.

An analysis of partisanship and ideology reveals that Bush's two
approval rating drops this year have come disproportionately from
different subgroups. The following table displays Bush's job
approval ratings at three points among partisan and ideological
groups. (In these data, independents who lean to the Democratic or
Republican Party are included with those who initially identify as
Republicans or Democrats.)

Percentage of Approving of Bush's Job as
President by Partisan and Ideological Groups, 2004

January

April

May

Overall

60%

52%

47%

Liberal Democrats

20%

11%

10%

Moderate Democrats

28%

19%

13%

Conservative Democrats

35%

29%

21%

Pure Independents

58%

41%

40%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans

89%

86%

76%

Conservative Republicans

95%

92%

92%

The initial drop in Bush's approval ratings this year came
disproportionately among pure independents (those who do not lean
toward either party) and liberal and moderate Democrats. While
Bush's overall rating fell eight points from 60% in January to 52%
in April, his rating among pure independents dropped 17 points and
dropped 9 points among both liberal Democrats and moderate
Democrats. Conservative Democrats, conservative Republicans, and
moderate and liberal Republicans showed smaller declines in support
during that period.

In recent weeks, Bush's overall job rating has decreased from
52% in April to 47% in May, but has not changed among pure
independents, liberal Democrats, or conservative Republicans.
Rather, most of the drop has occurred among moderate and liberal
Republicans (10-point decline since April), conservative Democrats
(8-point decline), and moderate Democrats (6-point decline). This
could be troubling for Bush, as these groups may be key to election
victory. Assuming conservative Republicans are already solidly in
the Bush camp and liberal Democrats are already backing John Kerry,
Bush will need to win the vast majority of moderate and liberal
Republican votes, and hope to gain some support from conservative
Democrats, especially in key swing states such as Florida,
Michigan, and Ohio.

Bush's declining political fortunes are evident in the views of
other key demographic groups, especially by gender, race, and
age.

Gender

Throughout his presidency, Bush's job approval rating has been
lower among women than among men. Such a gender gap has been
evident in ratings of presidents since Ronald Reagan. Over the past
five months, Bush's rating has decreased about equally among both
men and women.

Among men, the president's approval rating decreased 12 points,
starting at 63% in January, then decreasing to 57% in April, and
finally to 51% in May.

Bush's approval ratings among women decreased 14 points since
January, from a high of 56% in January, to 48% in April and 42% in
May.

Race

Bush's job approval rating decreased more among whites than
blacks, but that is mainly because only 20% of blacks initially
approved of Bush in January.

In January, nearly two-thirds of whites, 65%, approved of Bush,
but this percentage dropped to 57% in April and then to 51% in
May.

Among blacks, Bush's rating fell from 20% in January, to 16% in
April and 12% in May.

Age

The smallest drop in Bush's approval rating was among Americans
aged 50 to 64 -- just four points -- while his ratings dropped 13
points or more among all other age groups.

Among 18- to 29-year-olds, presidential approval dropped 13
points, from 57% in January to 44% in May.

Bush's greatest decline appeared among 30- to 49-year-olds. The
January data show 66% of those aged 30 –to 49 approving of
Bush, while just 49% currently approve.

Approval for Bush declined only four points among 50- to
64-year-olds, from 54% at the beginning of the year to 50%
now.

Among Americans aged 65 and older, Bush approval decreased 14
points since the beginning of the year. Fifty-four percent of
Americans in this age group approved of Bush in January. Now, only
40% approve.

Education

So far this year, respondents with a postgraduate education have
been the least likely of any education group to approve of the way
Bush is handling his job.

Bush's approval rating started the year at 48% among those with
postgraduate educations; they stayed at 48% in April before
dropping to 40% in May.

Among those with a four-year college degree and no postgraduate
education, 64% approved of Bush in January, but this percentage
declined to 57% in April, and to 53% this month.

Among respondents with just some college education, Bush's
approval rating decreased from 66% to 55% to 47%, respectively,
during these three periods.

Among those with a high school education or less, Bush's rating
decreased from 57% in January, to 49% in April, and to 47% in
May.

A Note on Battleground States

Looking at the 2000 Electoral College map, 51% of residents in
states Bush won comfortably (by six or more percentage points)
currently approve of him. Just 40% of those in states Al Gore won
comfortably now approve of Bush. In the battleground states --
those in which the winning candidate won by five percentage points
or fewer -- 47% of residents approve. Support for Bush in these key
states fell below the majority level in recent weeks, after being
at 58% in January. Bush also had majority approval (53%) in the
"blue" or Gore states in January.

*Results are based on two-poll aggregates of approximately
2,000 respondents. Polls were conducted Jan. 2-5 and Jan. 9-11,
April 5-8 and April 16-18 and May 7-9 and May 21-23. For each
two-poll aggregate, the maximum margin of error attributable to
sampling is ±2 percentage points. For subgroups, the margins
of error are higher. For example, in the January data the margin of
error for the 165 blacks is ±8 percentage points, while for
the 1,660 whites it is ±3 percentage points.

Slightly more Americans agree (52%) than disagree (45%) that the federal government is responsible for making sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. This balance of views is similar to last year.

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $98 in November, up from $93 in October. The latest figure is the highest average recorded for the month of November since Gallup began tracking consumer spending in 2008.

Americans are now almost evenly split on whether to amend the U.S. Constitution to replace the Electoral College with a popular vote system for electing presidents. In the past, Americans preferred the popular vote.