Daily Currency Update

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The Greenback falls after profit taking and as we await the Fed to release its monetary policy measures.

USD - United States Dollar

The Fed is expected to sit tight this Wednesday amid a debate on whether the U.S. is heading into a deflationary environment, despite the trillions of dollars of stimulus added to offset the impact of the pandemic. Market-based gauges, like the PCE deflator, will be released this week and provide insights on how inflation is tracking against the Fed’s target. With crude oil at depressed levels and the Fed committing to do more as needed in response to the pandemic, US Treasury yields could be vulnerable to the downside. A correction in yields generally comes with a weaker USD, but that correlation is not static and can be overran by the USD’s safe-haven status, as we saw in March.

Key Movers

The Loonie has increased versus the U.S. dollar by 0.23 percent, but it has fallen against the other majors (by 0.25 versus the Pound, 0.49 versus the Aussie dollar, 0.46 versus the Kiwi, and 0.18 percent versus the Japanese Yen). The Loonie is underperforming the other majors due to the 12% decrease in crude oil today and the continued downtrend. The increase of the equity market is helping the Loonie to increase against the U.S. dollar, as market participants bet on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy supports.

The Australian dollar outperformed its Canadian counterpart as plans by two Aussie states to ease coronavirus-related restrictions spur exporter and fund-related demand.

The Bank of Japan increased the target to buy corporate bonds and commercial paper. The additional measures announced by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also show a greater degree of fiscal-monetary policy coordination, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiling more than $1 trillion in stimulus this month. Furthermore, with other central banks due to meet, the BOJ apparently does not want to appear to be doing too little too late.

There will be a busy economic data docket this week with a trifecta of central bank meetings (Fed, ECB and BOJ) on monetary policy. Japan, the U.S and the E.U will all discuss and decide on whether to keep their rates at the current level or adjust further. There is currently only a 10-15% chance of any of their rates changing.

With the depth of the Euro-area downturn becoming more evident in official data, the ECB is likely to take further action on Thursday.

Crude oil fell below $13 a barrel again as global crude stockpiles made it more difficult for leading producers to balance the market by slowing output.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3856 - 1.4109 ▼

EUR/USD: 1.0790 - 1.0890 ▲

GBP/USD: 1.2342 - 1.2553 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.6420 - 0.6666 ▲

NZD/USD: 0.5995 - 0.6200 ▲

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