Desperate John Kerry looks for a nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday

Western negotiating team in Lausanne

As an American, it's embarrassing to see Secretary of State so
desperate to get a nuclear deal with Iran that he's willing to concede
anything. The deadline is today (Tuesday) at midnight Switzerland
time. It's thought that Kerry doesn't want the negotiations to past
midnight, because then it would be called an "April Fool's Nuclear
Deal."

Many people believe that Kerry's lack of restraint is his desire to
win a Nobel Peace Prize. That may in fact be his motive, but to be
fair, there's another reason: It there's no agreement with Iran, then
the status quo remains: the sanctions continue while Iran
continues to develop a nuclear weapons. What's not clear to me is why
this is better than having a deal where the sanctions come off, and
Iran continues to develop a nuclear weapon anyway.

According to an analysis by Memri, Iran has not backed down in any way
from its positions at the start of the talks. As I reported yesterday, Iran has reversed
a previous agreement to ship their stockpile of enriched uranium to
Russia. Now they intend to keep it, so that it can be refined and
developed into a nuclear weapon.

Memri lists the following Iranian positions that remain unchanged:

Tehran rejects the removal of its enriched uranium from
Iran.

Tehran rejects a gradual lifting of the sanctions.

Tehran rejects restriction of the number of its centrifuges.

Tehran rejects intrusive inspections and snap inspections.

Tehran rejects any halt to its research and development activity.

Tehran rejects any change to the nature of its heavy water reactor at Arak.

Tehran rejects any closure of its secret enrichment site at Fordow.

Tehran rejects all restrictions to its nuclear activity following the agreement's expiration.

Tehran rejects the inclusion of its long-range missile program in the negotiations.

Tehran rejects reporting on its previous clandestine military nuclear activity.

This is a good time to remind readers that we've been predicting for
years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran was going
to get a nuclear weapon, because Iran's public is demanding it for
defense. They've already been a victim of Saddam Hussein's WMDs, and
the public believes that with Pakistan, Russia and Israel having
nuclear weapons, they must have one too.

Still, with President Obama's and John Kerry's foreign policy record
of an unbroken string of catastrophes, it cannot do the United States
any good to see a servile John Kerry begging for a deal, just to see
him later beg for a reward from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Iran's Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is demanding that all Western
sanctions be removed completely immediately, or there will be no deal.
In February, Khamenei made a statement affirming this, but
also accused the West of duplicity:

"A scenario of agreement on general principles, and
shortly thereafter agreement on the details, is not recommended,
because our experience with the opposite side's conduct [in the
negotiations shows] that a framework agreement will serve [them]
as a tool for inventing a series of excuses in [the negotiations
on] the details. If an agreement is to be reached, it must be a
single-stage agreement, and it must include the general framework
as well as the details. The agreement's content must be clear, and
not open to interpretation. The agreement's sections must not be
such that the opposing side, which is used to bargaining, will
search for excuses on the various issues. The sanctions must be
completely removed."

This paragraph may be alluding to a 2013 interim agreement between
Iran and the west. The full text of that agreement was never
published. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that under the
agreement Iran had no right to enrich uranium, while Iran's foreign
minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated that Iran had preserved its
right to enrich uranium. The White House published a "summary," but
Iran completely rejected the White
House summary as "not true." Then, in January 2014, Iran disclosed
that there was a secret side agreement to the nuclear agreement. The
White House first confirmed this, saying that the side agreement would
be made public, and then denied that there was a secret side agreement

So Khamenei is demanding that any new agreement be published in full,
that there be no side agreements, that there be no ambiguities, and
that sanctions be removed completely, immediately.

So here are two questions: Is Khamenei so resolute that he won't
compromise on any principle? Is Kerry so servile that he'll
compromise on every principle? Perhaps we'll have an answer by April
Fool's Day. Memri and
VOA and AEI Iran Tracker

President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'

The Washington Post is saying that President Obama plans to create a
new Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal, and to impose it on Israel and
the Palestinians by mandating it through the UN Security Council. The
"new" proposal would be an update of UN Resolution 242, whose latest
incarnation of President George Bush's May 2003 "Roadmap to Mideast
Peace," which the Obama administration has been trying and failing to
impose on Israel and the Palestinians through negotiations.

Obama has already laid the groundwork by means of his vitriolic
criticisms of Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although
the details of the "new" proposal are not publicly known, it's
expected that it will try to impose a Palestinian state based on the
pre-1967 borders with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Most likely
it would declare that Jerusalem would be the capital of both nations.

The plan would be silent on the means for protecting Israel from
terrorist attacks from the West Bank and Gaza. The plan would also be
silent on the question of Palestinian refugees and the "right to
return," except to say that those details would be agreed on later.
In other words, the "peace plan" would meet the Palestinians' demands,
but would not even address Israel's concerns.

As in the case of the Iran nuclear negotiations, all I can do is shake
my head at how laughably ridiculous this is. When George Bush
proposed something similar, I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?"
that it would never work, because Generational Dynamics predicts
that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed
the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel.

So President Obama, the smartest guy in every room, is about to launch
into his next foreign policy catastrophe by regurgitating George
Bush's old Roadmap to Mideast Peace plan with a new title and a shiny
new cover. But this time it will not be a "proposal," but a
"mandate," which will make no difference whatsoever, except that it
will probably infuriate everyone, and may even start another war.
Washington Post

Top Iranian journalist defects, criticizes US nuclear negotiators

Iran's negotiating team in Lausanne (AFP)

Amir Hossein Motaghi, a top Iranian journalist and close aide to
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani, defected to the West on Friday, while
reporting on the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West.
Appearing in a televised interview, he said:

"There are a number of people attending on the Iranian
side at the negotiations who are said to be journalists reporting
on the negotiations. But they are not journalists and their main
job is to make sure that all the news fed back to Iran goes
through their channels. My conscience would not allow me to carry
out my profession in this manner any more."

Anyone in Iran who criticizes the regime in any way may be subject to
imprisonment, torture or death. This was particularly evident
following the 2009 presidential election, when there was blood in
streets as peaceful student protesters were slaughtered by regime
security forces.

Journalism in Iran is a particularly dangerous profession, since
angering some regime politician can lead to imprisonment. One of the
factors in Motaghi's decision to defect was the arrest of his friend
Jason Rezaian, the Iranian-American reporter for the Washington Post,
who was brutally arrested on July 22 of last year, along with his
wife. He's still in prison, and there have been no charges.

Motaghi says there's no point to being an Iranian journalist, since
all you do is parrot with the regime tells you to say. He's also
critical of Secretary of State John Kerry and the U.S. nuclear
negotiating team: "The US negotiating team are mainly there to speak
on Iran’s behalf with other members of the 5+1 countries and convince
them of a deal." Telegraph (London)

Arab League meeting ends with promise for joint Arab military force

Most annual Arab League summit meetings have as their top agenda item
the problem of Israel and the Palestinian cause. But this year, the
26th Arab League summit was held in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, and the
war with the Houthis in Yemen was pretty much the only major agenda
item. Other important agenda items, including the Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the unrest in Iraq, Libya and Syria and the
Palestinian cause, were discussed only briefly.

The major decisions to come out of the Arab League meeting were:

A general endorsement of the Saudi Arabia-led military action
against the Houthis in Yemen.

A non-binding of the proposal by Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi for all Arab countries to form a joint Arab military force to
"fight terrorism." Al-Sisi has been pushing this idea for several
weeks, ever since the massacre of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in
Libya last month by terrorists who had pledged loyalty to
ISIS.

The final draft resolution called on Arab countries to support
Palestine's budget, and to pressure Israel to respect signed
agreements and international resolutions.

The anger directed at Iran is palpable. The Houthi insurrection has
done something that the Syria war, ISIS, and terrorism in Libya did
not do: It unified the Arab nations, at least for the time being.
Yemen is not seen as a local problem, but as Iran's grip on another
nation, after Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, while at the same time making
use of a "desperate" president Barack Obama.

This Saudi editorial seems to capture what a lot of Arabs are feeling
today:

"If anything, the so-called Arab Spring had provided
Iran with an unprecedented opportunity to boost its strategic
presence in the Arab world. Indeed, Tehran has exploited every
crisis in the Arab world to its advantage and to gain a foothold
in the region. I will state the obvious and argue that Iran is a
revisionist state.

Many Saudis as well as other Arabs believe that Iran’s bullying
knows no bounds. Hence, many Arabs are looking up to Saudi Arabia
to effectively confront Iran’s expansionist designs in the
region. While Riyadh had been working along with other like-minded
states in a peaceful way to prevent unnecessary escalation, the
Iranian leaders erroneously thought that they could destabilize
Yemen, change the balance of power in the Gulf region, and get
away with it. In such a situation, it was necessary to formulate a
new strategy conveying a strong message to Iran and its ilk that
Saudi Arabia could always resort to using military means if and
when necessary to prevent an imbalance in the regional balance of
power.

The same strategy could be seen currently at work in Yemen. The
failure of diplomacy to encourage the Iranian-backed Houthis to
negotiate with good faith compelled Riyadh to adopt this approach.

In a short period of time, Riyadh put forward a formidable
coalition with one objective: To reverse the gains of the Houthis
and to hit them hard so that they understand that their actions
will not be tolerated and that they have to negotiate a political
settlement.

The running argument within and without Saudi Arabia is that short
of taking strong and decisive action against Iran’s proxy, Iran
will not change course.

To have a better understanding of this strategy, one has to
examine the wider context. Observers in the region agree that
United States President Barack Obama is desperate to leave his
legacy in the Middle East. Time and again, Obama made it perfectly
clear that a deal with Iran topped his priority list. The problem,
and herein the crux of the matter, is that such a deal is most
likely to give Iran an elated status. It is as if you get the
genie out of the bottle. A deal with Iran is likely to strengthen
a revisionist Iran, a scenario that will be too
risky. Furthermore, the prevailing perception in this part of the
world is that the American appeasement of Iran will only hurt the
interests of the Arab world in the long run."

Report: Iran nuclear negotiations may be deadlocked

The self-imposed deadline for completion of nuclear negotiations is
Tuesday, and it's believed by many that the Obama administration is
desperate for a deal, possibly so that Obama and Kerry can share a
Nobel Peace Prize.

A report late Sunday indicates that Iran is backing away from a
previous agreement to ship their stockpile of atomic fuel to another
country, presumably to Russia. This would make the stockpile
inaccessible for making a nuclear weapon.

Another major area of disagreement is the removal of sanctions.
Iran's Supreme Leader has vetoed any nuclear agreement that doesn't
give Iran immediate relief from Western sanctions, as we reported two weeks ago. There is a
disagreement among politicians in Washington whether Obama has the
power to reduce or remove sanctions unilaterally, without a vote from
Congress.

Syria's al-Assad regime suffers major military setback in Idlib

A group of seven jihadist factions, led by the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), appear to have seized the city of Idlib,
dealing a major blow to the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, who recently declared that Idlib would be freed. The Syrian
army forces collapsed rapidly after four days of heavy fighting,
according to the jihadists. They were able to make use of
American-made TOW missiles that the US had previously provided to
friendly anti-Assad rebels. The TOW missiles were used to neutralize
Syrian tanks.

Al-Nusra is an al-Qaeda linked group, and is in fact the "official"
branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. It didn't join the Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) when the latter broke away from al-Qaeda two
years ago. The al-Qaeda linked groups and ISIS are theoretically
allies fighting the al-Assad regime, but they also get into battles
with each other, and there may be a major battle shaping up over who's
going to control more of Syria.

Idlib is a the capital of the northwestern province named Idlib. The
city has 165,000 people and is close to the main highway linking
Damascus to Aleppo and to the coastal province of Latakia, a
stronghold of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad. The jihadists were
jubilant after victory, posting videos of themselves taking down
al-Assad posters, and yelling "Alluha Akbar!"

This is the second time in a week that al-Assad has been humiliated by
an al-Nusra victory. Last week, al-Nusra captured the ancient and
strategic town of Busra Sham in southern Syria.

Idlib is the second major provincial capital that the al-Assad regime
has lost to jihadists. Al-Nusra captured another provincial capital,
Raqqa, but it was subsequently seized from al-Nusra by ISIS, and has
now become the headquarters of ISIS.

With the world focused on ISIS, al-Nusra has quietly consolidated its
power in Syria. Al-Nusra now controls a large stretch of land from
the border with Turkey to southern Syria. Control of Idlib means that
jihadists can freely move back and forth between Turkey and Syria.
Some analysts believe that Turkey is funding some al-Qaeda linked
groups because its major objective is the defeat of al-Assad.
The National (UAE) and Belfast Telegraph and Long War Journal

Arab League positions harden against Houthis and Iran

"Operation Decisive Storm," which is the name of the 8-country
military operation to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, led by Saudi
Arabia, entered its fourth day on Saturday night.

Leaders of the Arab League nations used extremely belligerent language
in referring to the Houthis and Iran, with the King of Saudi Arabia
calling the Houthis the biggest threat to the stability and security
of the region, presumably implying that they're more dangerous than
the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The leaders backed up the belligerent language with commitments to
continue the assault on the Houthis in Yemen. This indicates that
positions are becoming extremely hardened.

Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, the president of Yemen who has been forced to
flee the country, called the Houthis "stooges of Iran," and said:

"I call for the continuation of Operation Decisive
Storm until this gang [the Houthis] announces its surrender, exits
all occupied territories in the provinces, leaves state
institutions and military camps.
Operation Decisive Storm will continue until all the goals are
achieved and the Yemeni people start enjoying security and
stability."

Obviously, there's a lot of wishful thinking her, since the
Iran-backed Houthis are not going to surrender without a great deal
more bloodshed.

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi said:

"This nation [Yemen], in its darkest hour, had never
been faced a challenge to its existence and a threat to its
identity like the one it's facing now. This threatens our
national security and [we] cannot ignore its consequences for the
Arab identity."

Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, who is leading the
assault on the Houthis, said:

"Saudi Arabia did not spare any effort to address the
situation in Yemen. Houthi intransigence, pursuit of power and
control, rejection of all initiatives and their aggression against
the Yemeni people led to the military operation. The Houthi
militants elicited support of foreign powers to threaten the
region’s security.

We hoped not to resort to this decision (the operation) ... The
Houthi’ aggression is the biggest threat to the stability and
security of the region."

The Saudi kingdom has taken the lead with some 100 warplanes. Other
coalition partners are providing additional warplanes, the coalition
partners include the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar,
Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and Egypt. There are reports that Saudi ground
troops may enter Yemen within a few days.

Egypt's al-Sisi is calling for a unified Arab force to deal with the
increasing list of crises, including Libya and Syria. The proposed
force would be made of up to 40,000 elite troops and will be
headquartered in either Cairo or Riyadh, the Egyptian and Saudi
capitals. The force would be backed by jet-fighters, warships and
light armor.

Some analysts are expressing doubt that this Arab military coalition
will last very long, dissolving within a few days or weeks. That's
certainly a possibility, but from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, another view must be emphasized: If this were the 1990s, (a
generational "Unraveling" era), then the coalition probably would
dissolve quickly. But in today's generational Crisis era, the public
mood is very different than it was in the 1990s. Today, with the
survivors of World War II gone, the public mood is increasingly
nationalistic, xenophobic, and belligerent. So it's quite possible
(though not certain) that this coalition will become even more
bellicose, and that the war in Yemen will spread to other sites.
Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a full-scale war in
the Mideast, pitting Arabs versus Jews, Sunnis versus Shias, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Al Jazeera and CNN and AP

Puerto Rico bankruptcy may be imminent, potentially a 'seminal event'

Puerto Rico landscape

Marilyn Cohen, the CEO of Envision Capital Management, appeared on
Bloomberg TV on Friday to analyze the debt situation in Puerto Rico.
According to Cohen, a $70 billion bankruptcy in Puerto Rico is a
virtual certainty, as early as July.

Many people have invested in Puerto Rico bonds because they
pay 10% interest (yields) and because under federal law they're
"triple-tax free," meaning that you can earn 10% interest every
year and not have to pay federal, state or municipal tax on
the interest you collect. It's a sweet deal, provided that
Puerto Rico doesn't go bankrupt, because if it does, then you
lose most or all of your initial investment.

According to Cohen, the unemployment rate is 13.7%. Only 700,000 of
the 3.5 million people, or 20%, work in the private sector. The other
80% either are on welfare, or they receive unemployment or other aid,
or they work for the government. Year after year, Puerto Rico sells
more and more bonds, and investors eat them up because of the high
tax-free yields. But now their string has run out.

According to Cohen, the bankruptcy will hurt a lot of people. She
compares it to the Detroit bankruptcy, which didn't really hurt too
many people -- the bankrupt debt was $18 billion, but few ordinary
people owned Detroit bonds, as most investors were institutions
that hedged their purchases with credit default swaps.

But Puerto Rico's debt totals $70 billion, and she says that huge
numbers of ordinary investors are going to be hurt. Even if they
don't individually own PR bonds, they own them through their 401k's or
other investment funds, which have been boosting returns by purchasing
the PR bonds. These funds will all lose significant principal in a PR
bankruptcy. According to Cohen, this bankruptcy will be a "seminal
event."

After Detroit and Puerto Rico, Cohen says that the most likely
next municipal bankruptcy will be Chicago, whose finances
are "a mess."

By the way, if you'd like to ignore these warnings about Puerto
Rico and move there, there are numerous tax incentives available
to individuals there not available anywhere else:

100% tax exemption on interest and dividend income earned
after the nonresident individual becomes a resident of Puerto Rico;
also applies with respect to alternative minimum tax (AMT) up to tax
year 2036

100% tax exemption on interest, financial charges, dividends or
distributive share on partnership income from international banking
entities in Puerto Rico including AMT

100% tax exemption on long-term capital gains realized and
recognized after becoming a resident of Puerto Rico but before January
1, 2036

If not realized and recognized within the incentive timeframe,
regular individual long-term capital gain applies (currently at
10%)

Applies to appreciation of property after becoming a resident of
Puerto Rico

5% tax on long-term capital gains realized before becoming a
resident of Puerto Rico, but recognized after 10 years of becoming a
resident of Puerto Rico, as long as recognized before January 1,
2036

This 5% long-term capital gain tax only applies to the portion of
gain that relates to the appreciation of the property while the
individual lived outside Puerto Rico

If the long-term capital gain is not recognized within these time
periods, applicable individual long-term capital gain rate would apply
on any Puerto Rico-source long-term capital gain

Israel releases tax revenue collections to Palestinian Authority

After Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas applied in
January on behalf of the State of Palestine to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), Israel
retaliated by withholding $130 million per month in tax collections
from the PA. This is money that Israel collects administratively on
behalf of the PA in taxes and fees.

Although there were the usual expressions of international outrage
directed at Israel, everyone pretty much assumed that prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu made this decision to please his supporters during
an election campaign, and that the funds would be released at some
time in the future, after the election, and so it really wasn't
considered too big a deal.

Well, the election is over, and "some time in the future" is now.
Israel announced on Friday in a press release that it will release the
money to the PA government in Ramallah.

Mideast nations line up for and against Saudi airstrikes in Yemen

Two days after an 8-nation US-backed coalition, led by Saudi Arabia,
declared war on the Houthi insurgency in Yemen and began airstrikes at
Houthi targets in Yemen, the countries of the Arab League are meeting
in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to decide what to do next.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait are particularly disturbed
by the growing Iranian/Shia hegemony growing stronger in the region,
and so are supporting the Saudis. Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt are
traditional Saudi allies and are participating. So is the Palestinian
Authority of Mahmoud Abbas.

For some countries, participation is a surprise, or at least mildly
unexpected. In Bahrain, Sunnis are in a minority, but they still rule
over the majority Shias. Qatar is considered the Persian Gulf's
"problem child." It has many disagreements with Saudi Arabia, and has
relatively strong channels of communication with Iran.

Sudan is the most intriguing Saudi supported. Sudan has had close
relations with Iran, and Iran has used Sudan as a waypoint in the
transfer of heavy weapons into the Gaza strip. Sudan has recently
accused Iran of "spreading Shia ideology," and it's siding with the
Saudis against Iran is a dramatic statement of intent.

Pakistan is also supporting the Saudis, though less actively.
The Saudis have long had an agreement that Pakistan will supply
Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons technology if Iran gets a
nuclear weapon.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long had, or tried
to have, good relations with Iran, but on Thursday said it
supported the Saudi-led operation. According to Erdogan,

"Iran is trying to dominate the region. Could this be
allowed? This has begun annoying us, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
countries. This is really not tolerable and Iran has to see
this. ...

Iran has to change its view. It has to withdraw any forces,
whatever it has in Yemen, as well as Syria and Iraq and respect
their territorial integrity."

However, Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif denounced
Erdogan’s statement of support for the military strikes in Yemen and
for suggesting that Iran is seeking to control the region. Zarif
blamed Erdogan for fomenting regional insecurity and stated: "It would
be better if those who have created irreparable damages with their
strategic blunders [referring to Turkey’s role in the ongoing Syrian
crisis] ... would adopt responsible policies." Zarif reiterated
Tehran’s support for a political resolution in Yemen. YNet (Israel) and Arab News and
AEI Iran Tracker

Mideast countries opposed to Saudi intervention in Yemen

There are several countries that are opposed to the Saudi-led
intervention.

Iran, of course, is the leading opponent, and is suspected of
supplying weapons and support to the Houthis in Yemen. Iraq, whose
government is a close ally of Iran, is strongly opposing the Saudi
military intervention.

Lebanon's support is split, just as Lebanon itself is split between
Shia and Sunni factions. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Iran back
Shia faction Hezbollah, was particularly vitriolic on Friday. In some
of his harshest comments to date, Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of
sending suicide attackers to Iraq and of creating the Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Addressing Saudi Arabia, he said Iran
had expanded its influence in the region because "you are lazy,
losers, and you don't take responsibility."

Algeria is usually disinclined to get involved in regional crises, and
opposes the military intervention. Oman stayed out of the alliance in
the hope of acting as a mediator. Lately, Oman has played a
significant role in the US-Iranian thaw that allowed nuclear talks to
advance.

As Generational Dynamics has been predicting for years, the Mideast is
headed for a major war between Jews and Arabs, between Sunnis and
Shias, and between various ethnic groups, and this war is coming with
100% certainty as the survivors die off from the genocidal 1948
Mideast war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Think back to how relatively
peaceful the Mideast was just five or six years ago, and you'll
realize how quickly the Mideast is now descending into chaos, as more
and more of those survivors die off. These trends have been
accelerating even in the last few weeks, and it's hard to escape the
feeling that all-out war cannot be very far off. YNet (Israel) and AP

Several Gulf Arab states -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE),
Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait (but not Oman) issued a joint statement on
Thursday that they decided to repel Houthi militias, Al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) from Yemen. Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan and Sudan also expressed
their support, and readiness to participate.

The United States military is supporting the operation with air
support, satellite imagery, and other intelligence, but is not taking
part in the strikes. Al Arabiya and NBC News

Iran threatens retaliation against Saudi Arabia for Yemen strikes

Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif demanded an immediate end
to the Saudi air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. According
to Zarif:

We are calling for an immediate end to Saudi Arabia’s
military operations in Yemen. ... We know that these actions
violate the sovereignty of Yemen. This operation will result in
nothing other than bloodshed, and we will provide all our efforts
to defuse the crisis in Yemen. ... This operation will involve the
region in much more tension."

Actually Zarif has it backwards when he says that the Saudi airstrikes
violate the sovereignty of Yemen. The airstrikes were requested by
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who is the internationally recognized
president of Yemen, while the Houthis are the terrorists. So the
Saudi intervention is perfectly legal, while any actions that Iran
takes to support the Houthis would be supporting terrorism.

Hadi himself was in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday, and is
traveling to Cairo for an Arab League meeting.

Articles published on state-sponsored Iranian media are inciting the
Houthis to further violence, telling them to counterattack Saudi
Arabia on Saudi soil, and suggest joint operation with Iran to close
two choke points in order to isolate Saudi Arabia. According to one
article:

"The Attack on the Yemeni Revolution: The Arena Of
Retaliation Stretches From Bab Al-Mandeb To The Strait Of Hormuz:
Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia gathered several countries
... to ensure that the implications of its attack on the popular
revolution in Yemen would be directed at a coalition of Arab
countries, the consequences of this move will undoubtedly be
directed at its own interests. The Saudi-Western front wants to
restrict Ansar Allah to North Yemen and distance the Houthis from
[the Strait of] Bab Al-Mandeb. [Therefore,] it is possible that
they would go as far as splitting Yemen or occupying parts of the
south to realize this goal... Now the Houthis also have the
necessary pretext to launch military operations and retaliatory
strikes deep inside Saudi territory, in Bab Al-Mandeb, the Red
Sea, and even the Strait of Hormuz. The foremost high priority
targets for them are the oil fields, tankers, and
industry."

As shown in the map above, if Iran and the Houthis could close the
Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb strait, then Saudi oil would be
trapped in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.

Shia militias sidelined for Iraq's assault on Tikrit, with US help

With the US now conduction airstrikes against Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) targets in Tikrit in Iraq, apparently some
20,000 troops from Iran-trained Shia militias will not be
participating in the assault after all, leaving some 4,000 Iraqi
regular army military troops as the only force on the ground.

There are two different sets of reasons being put out to explain why
the Shia militias will no longer participate. According to the
Americans, the US asked Iraq to withdraw the Shia militias so that the
US wouldn't be making airstrikes in support of Shia militias. The
Shias are saying that they pulled out of the Tikrit operation in
protest against the American airstrikes.

Either way, the 20,000 Iran-trained Shia militias are gone, and so is
Iran's legendary Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was supposed to have
defeated ISIS in Tikrit weeks ago, within a few days. Now we'll get
to see whether 4,000 Iraqi army troops, backed up by American
airstrikes, can do what Soleimani and his Shia militias could not.
AP

US joins Iran and Iraq in fighting ISIS in Tikrit

Saudi King Salman ordered a 'sweeping military operation' into Yemen on Wednesday

As we reported a couple of days ago, the attempt by Iraq's army, supported by Iran's Al Qods
Brigades and its legendary commander Qassam Soleimani, to recapture
Tikrit from the Islamic State (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh) had reached a
standstill even though it was supposed to be have been quick and easy,
requiring only a few days.

Both Iraq and Iran had wanted to win this battle without any help from
the US-led coalition, in order to gain a public relations victory. So
when Iraqi army General Abdulwahab al-Saadi last week called for
American help with airstrikes and intelligence, Hadi Al-Amiri, the
head of the Badr Brigade of Iraq's Shia militias, slammed the request,
calling al-Saadi a "weakling."

Well, apparently the humiliation for Iran and Iraq has been too much
to bear, and they've requested American coalition air strikes. In
addition, the US military will be providing intelligence and
surveillance support for the Iraqis and the Iranians.

This is a major policy shift for Iran, but it's also a major policy
shift for the US administration. The administration did not want to
be seen cooperating with Iran for a couple of reasons. First, it did
not want to be seen cooperating with Iran militarily, since many
American politicians consider Iran to be an enemy. And second, they
didn't want to further inflame the Sunni Arab states, who would be
upset at seeing the U.S. and Iran conducting joint military
operations.

Long-time readers are aware that ten years ago I wrote, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would become America's ally
as the generation of survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution
died off, and that the Sunni nations would be allied with Pakistan and
China against America, India, Russia and Iran. Ten years ago, the
prediction that Iran would be our ally seemed insane, so it's been
fascinating and astonishing, in the last two years, to see that
prediction come closer to reality every week. The Generational
Dynamics methodology, which applies MIT's System Dynamics to flows of
people through generations, has produced one correct analysis and
prediction after another, with no failures. There is no web site,
analyst, politician or journalist in the world with a better
predictive success than the Generational Dynamics web site, as can be
seen with the stunning outcome of the Iran predictions, made ten years
ago. CNN

Saudi Arabia begins airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen

On Wednesday, Iran-backed Shia Houthi militias in Yemen who last year
had taken control of the capital city Sanaa, continued to move south,
took control of the airport in Aden, and were advancing to the
interior of the city. Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who last month fled
from Sanaa to Aden and set up a competing government, is not getting
enough support from the Sunni tribes in the south to defend against
the Houthi invasion.

Some reports indicate that Hadi fled Yemen by boat on Wednesday, and
so is no longer in Yemen. However, his spokesman denies this report,
and indicates that he's in hiding somewhere in Aden.

Saudi Arabia has been massing forces on its southern border with
Yemen, and on Wednesday evening Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz
ordered a sweeping military operation against the Iran-backed Houthis.
A Saudi official announced that a 10-country coalition was conducting
air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. According to Adel al-Jubeir,
the Saudi ambassador to the US, the airstrikes target move than one
city and more than one region. "We are determined to protect the
legitimate government of Yemen. Having Yemen fail cannot be option
for us or for our coalition partners."

A senior Arab diplomat said that that all members of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) except Oman will support military
intervention in Yemen. However, the GCC consists of only six
countries, and so some non-GCC countries will be involved.

Late on Wednesday evening, the White House announced that it will
support the military operation in Yemen with air support, satellite
imagery, and other intelligence.

It now appears that a Yemen civil war is well underway. In Iraq, the
US will fighting alongside Iran, but it appears that in Yemen, US
support will be opposed to Iran. Al Arabiya and CNN

Obama administration continues to hail Yemen as a model

A bizarre side story to the disintegration of Yemen is that the Obama
administration continued on Wednesday to insist that Yemen is a model
of counterterrorism campaign in its fight against ISIS and 29248
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Last year in September, prior to Yemen's meltdown, president Obama
said, "This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while
supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have
successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years."

But in the last few days, the U.S. embassy in Sanaa has been shut
down, and several hundred US special forces were evacuated from Al
Anad air base in southern Yemen, not far from Aden. The special
forces in particular were an essential part of the counterterrorism
strategy, which now appears to have collapsed.

However, according to Obama spokesman Josh Earnest on Wednesday:

"We have not seen that kind of progress in terms of
strengthening the central government, I think you could make a
pretty strong case that we've seen the opposite of that, but we do
continue to enjoy the benefits of a sustained counterterrorism
security relationship with the security infrastructure that
remains. There are elements of the Yemeni government that we
continue to be in touch with that continue to further our efforts
to apply pressures to extremists that seek to operate in that
country."

Almost all mosques have been destroyed in Central African Republic

Almost all of the 436 mosques in the Central African Republic (CAR)
have been destroyed by months of bloody fighting between Christians
and Muslims, according to Samantha Power, US ambassador to the United
Nations.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, who became president and served until January
2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the
vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against
the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been
committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced. Susan Rice called the destruction of almost all mosques in
the country "kind of crazy, chilling."

A European Union one-year military mission in CAR that was launched in
April 2014 is now coming to an end. General Philipe Ponties, who led
the mission, said he was satisfied with the outcome:

"We are leaving a city [the capital city Bangui] to
which peace has been restored and in which a political process is
now in motion. People are now leaving the refugee camps and the
internally displaced are returning to their homes. I have the
impression that we have accomplished our mission. ...

The mission was charged with securing the airport and parts of the
capital, Bangui, and with providing assistance for the setting up
of a UN mission in the country."

According to Ponties, these goals have been more or less achieved.

This is really an incredibly bizarre conclusion. Bangui may be the
capital city of CAR, but it's just one city in a country with enormous
land area, and atrocities are continuing by both Christians and
Muslims across the entire country. Even in Bangui, there are still
marauding gangs of murderers who will now have a free hand now that
the EUFOR troops are leaving.

Just this weekend, there was massive violence in the central part of
the country, near the town of Kaga-Bandoro. Violence broke out when
Muslim herders noticed that their cattle had been stolen. In
retaliation, Muslim Seleka militias ransacked several Christian
villages, killing 11 people. In a country as vast as CAR, these kinds
of attacks might occur every day, and the outer world would never
know.

The worst is yet to come in CAR, and as in the case of every
generational crisis war, the war will not end until there's some kind
of explosive climax that will be remembered for decades or centuries.
AP and Deutsche Welle and AP

Russia finally begins to grasp the danger posed by ISIS

Russia's government, whose unlimited support for the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad is a major reason for the existence of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), is
suddenly discovering that ISIS is a threat to Russia itself.

At a recent top-level meeting in Moscow of the Russian Security
Council, Nikolai Patrushev is quoted as saying:

"We should take extra care about the threat posed by
militants involved in the conflict on the side of the terrorist
groups and returning from those hot spots. It is no secret that a
large number of mercenaries from Russia are fighting overseas
today in the ranks of those bandit groups. [As] they return home,
they might bring the skills of sophisticated terrorism to our
land, including those characteristic of the group that calls
itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant [ISIL]."

"[ISIS] does not respect state boundaries. ... It is
like a cancer, a metastasis, growing in different directions. This
is all very worrying and concerns us too, concerns the interests of
our national security and that of our friends in the
region."

Russian propagandists claim that the West finances ISIS militants to
weaken Russia, while even ordinary citizens know that 90 percent of
the militants’ resources are of local origin, such as racketeering,
sharia taxes (zakat), voluntary contributions by sympathizers, payoffs
from officials, etc.

In fact, Russia can take a great deal of the credit for the rise of
ISIS in the first place.

ISIS was created in a very specific way: by turning Syria into a
magnet for jihadists worldwide who wanted to fight al-Assad, after he
started his genocidal assault on innocent Syrian women and children,
starting in 2011. There are thousands of young men and women who are
citizens of America and Europe, as well as Asia and Africa, who have
traveled or are traveling to Syria to join ISIS. That problem didn't
exist during the Bush administration, or in the first term of the
Obama administration. That problem began specifically when al-Assad
started slaughtering innocent Syrian women and children. And al-Assad
would have been long gone by now, except that Russia provided him with
billions of dollars in heavy weapons that al-Assad could use to
slaughter innocent Syrian women and children.

That's the specific cause and effect that led to the creation of ISIS.
The primary blame goes to Bashar al-Assad, who is guilty of war crimes
and crimes against humanity. Secondary blame goes to Russia's
president Vladimir Putin, for supplying heavy weapons to al-Assad, and
also to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, for
supplying troops and weapons to al-Assad. Both Putin and Khamenei are
war criminals because they supplied the weapons and manpower to
al-Assad, knowing full well that al-Assad was committing war crimes
and crimes against humanity.

So now Iran has to fight ISIS soldiers in Iraq, and Russia is finally
noticing that ISIS soldiers from Syria are headed back to commit acts
of terror on Russian soil. Both Russia and Iran deserve what happens
to them. Unfortunately, it's going to happen to everyone else as
well, and the rest of us don't deserve it. Jamestown

Iraq's battle for Tikrit reaches a standstill, humiliating Iran

Iraq's military operation to recapture the city of Tikrit from the
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) apparently stalled a week
ago. The military operation, which began on March 2, comprise 10,000
troops from Iraq's army, aided by 20,000 fighters from Shia militias,
as well as special forces from Iran led by Iran's legendary Al Qods
Brigades chief, the Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

The plan was to take Tikrit within a week or so, and then move on to a
much larger battle to capture Mosul. The Iraqi forces reached the
outskirts of Tikrit, and captured some neighboring villages, but were
blocked from entering Tikrit, according to reports, by ISIS snipers
and huge numbers of IEDs and bombs along the roads, causing hundreds
of casualties.

There are a lot of reputations riding on a quick victory in Tikrit.
At the beginning, the Iraqi soldiers dropped their arms and fled
instead of fighting, and now some are saying that they're refusing to
fight in Tikrit. A stalemate in Tikrit would be a major humiliation
to Iran and to Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was expected to pull off a
quick, brilliant victory, but who has now retreated to Tehran,
according to reports. Finally, a stalemate would be an embarrassment
to the president Barack Obama's administration, which is counting on a
Tikrit victory -- or anything, anything, that might slow the
continuing humiliation to the administration for seeing Iraq fall
under the control of ISIS. Obama completely withdrew American forces,
allowing ISIS to take control again, after president George Bush
ejected al-Qaeda in Iraq with his "surge."

In fact, with Baghdad, Tehran and Washington all facing humiliation
from a potential stalemate in Tikrit, the only group that would look
like a winner if the stalemate continues would be ISIS. BBC and
Newsweek

Disorganization plagues Iraq's soldiers assaulting Tikrit

Iraqi officials point out that the military operation only began
three weeks ago, so even if the initial projections were optimistic,
there is still plenty of time for victory in Tikrit.

However, fundamental problems were exposed last weekend in
the Iraqi effort.

From the start of the operation, both Iraq and Iran had explicitly
rejected any help for US and coalition forces, such as air strikes.
However, last weekend, as the operation on Tikrit hit a brick wall,
Iraqi General Abdulwahab al-Saadi, who commands the Iraqi army forces
in the area, indicated that he favored asking the Americans for help:
"Of course... the Americans have advanced equipment, they have AWACS
(surveillance) aircraft."

However, Hadi Al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Brigade of Iraq's Shia
militias, slammed al-Saadi's remarks, saying:

"Some of the weaklings in the army... say we need the
Americans, while we say we do not need the
Americans."

If you have one part of Iraq's forces referring to the other part as
"weaklings," then at the very least you have low morale and no unified
command. The hodge-podge of Iraqi forces conducting the assault on
Tikrit may simply not be up to the job.

If the stalemate continues, then someone will have to reassess, and
throw more forces into the battle. These might come in the form of
troops or airstrikes from Iran, or a request for troops and airstrikes
from the American-led coalition. But there are too many reputations
at stake for the situation in Tikrit to continue as it is. France24/Reuters and AFP and International Business Times

Correction to yesterday's report on France's elections

"They were in fact departmental elections: regional
elections are scheduled for next December. France using a two-round
system, the important day is next Sunday when the second round will
take place. Constitutionally, the most important is that we are for
the first time electing a pair of two councilors (a man and a
woman) for each canton. Politically, the important questions are
"will the Front National for the first time get the presidency of a
département?" and how many départements the Left will keep
(Hollande is so unpopular nobody expects the Left to
win)."

Greece's Tsipras visits Germany's Merkel and demands reparations

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras visited German Chancellor
Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday, and after the meeting there were
smiles and handshakes and apparent good will.

However, at the post-meeting press conference, Tsipras raised the
issue of payment of reparations as compensation for Nazi atrocities
during World War II. Merkel answered sharply, "In the German
government’s view, the issue of reparations is politically and legally
closed."

The disagreement comes during a major run on Greece's banks, with 1.1
billion euros flowing out of Greek banks in the last three days alone.
Greece has to pay pensions and government employees, and it's believed
that without an infusion of new bailout loans the country will go
bankrupt early in April.

According to research by Der Spiegel, Greece may have a good
case for demanding payments from the Germans. Besides possible
compensation for Nazi atrocities, there may be payments due for forced
loans that the Nazi occupiers extorted Greece's central bank beginning
in 1941. By 1944, the forced loans may have totaled as much as 300
billion drachmas. The Greek currency suffered hyperinflation during
WW II, so all in all, 300 billion drachmas may be worth something like
$10 million, not really enough to solve Greece's financial crisis.
Greek Reporter and Guardian (London) and Der Spiegel

The Iran-backed ethnic Houthis that captured and occupied Yemen's
capital city Sanaa last year are following up from Friday's announced military mobilization
have seized much of the city of Taiz and the surrounding province.
They've taken control of the airport and security and
intelligence buildings in Taiz, and have set up checkpoints in
the area.

Yemen's internationally recognized president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi
was forced last month to flee Sanaa, which is Yemen's largest city and
is in in the north of Yemen, to Aden, which is Yemen's second largest
city, and is a port city in the south of Yemen. Taiz is Yemen's third
largest city, and it's located about halfway between Sanaa and Aden,
so it's a critical waypoint on the Houthis' planned assault on Hadi's
forces in Aden.

The Houthis have been using Yemen's air force for bombing strikes on
Aden every day since Thursday. Now that the Houthis have control of
Taiz airport, it's expected that further air strikes will be launched
from there.

It now seems unavoidable that within the next few days there will be a
sectarian civil war between the Shia Houthis versus Hadi's Sunni
tribal militias. This will be further complicated by the presence in
Yemen of two Sunni terrorist groups, the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP).

The Houthis are now in control of the army and air force, and they're
backed by Iran which is suspected of shipping additional weapons to
them. Saudi Arabia and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) have expressed deep dismay at the Shia takeover of
Yemen, but it remains to be seen whether they take any military action
to counter it. If they do, then the result will be a sectarian proxy
war in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The National (UAE) and CNN and
AFP and AP

UN Security Council urges 'peaceful dialog' in Yemen

Jordan called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on
Sunday to discuss the "rapid downward spiral" in Yemen. According to
special Yemen envoy Jamal Benomar:

"Emotions are running extremely high and, unless
solutions can be found, the country will fall into further violent
confrontations. Events in Yemen are leading the country away from
political settlement and to the edge of civil war. ...

I urge all sides in this time of rising tension and inflammatory
rhetoric to appreciate the gravity of the situation and deescalate
by exercising maximum restraint. Peaceful dialogue is the only
way forward."

According to one web site, "peaceful dialog" means "to create a
consciousness among members of society – through multilayer dialogue –
that they are responsible for peace and that they are vested with the
right to demand peace. Peace Dialogue strives to create the conditions
for mutual cooperation and support between members of conflicting
societies who see no alternative except the peaceful resolution of
conflicts. This is achieved through the development of civil
peacebuilding potential, strengthening respect for human rights and
democratic values, promoting civil peace initiatives, and advocating
on behalf of victims of conflict."

So, now that the UN Security Council is on the job, advocating
peaceful dialog, we can all feel relieved that the problems in Yemen
are over. After all, as we all know, war never solves anything.
United Nations and Anadolu (Turkey)

France's center-right party edges out far-right National Front in elections

Marine Le Pen's far-right Front National party did well in Sunday's
elections, but not well enough to defeat Nicolas Sarkozy's
center-right UMP party in regional elections in France on Sunday.
(The phrase "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.)
The stridently anti-immigrant, anti-EU, "anti-Islamization" Front
National party has been surging in polls, and many European officials
had been concerned that they would win.

President François Hollande and his Socialist Party government have
been plummeting in the polls in recent months, so never expected to do
well in these regional elections. So, in a surprise move, the
Socialists teamed up with the UMP party to issue dire warnings about
Front National. Marine Le Pen derided the tactic as "trying to lead a
campaign against the people, a filthy and violent campaign that
stigmatized millions of French voters."

According to initial projections, the UMP received 31% of the vote,
National Front received 24.5%, and the Socialists received 19.7%.

However, this wasn't the final election. There will be a second
election next Sunday, March 29, pitting the top two parties from this
election, UMP and Front National. The winner of next Sunday's
election will determine which leader, Nicolas Sarkozy or Marine Le
Pen, will be most likely to win the 2017 presidential election.

Feminists should be jumping for joy over this election. Voters don't
select an individual, but they select a pair of candidates, one man
and one woman. This should guarantee that half of those elected will
be women. AFP and VOA and AFP

Computer geek activists demonstrate against robots at SXSW

Stop the Robots T-shirt

Chanting things like, "You say robot, I say no-bot!" and "Humans are
the future!", anti-robot activists protested against robots at the
South by Southwest (SXSW) conference in Austin, Texas, last week.

The protesters expressed concern that robots would take over people's
jobs, and other dangers associated with uncontrolled growth and
development around artificial intelligence and robotics. However,
they insist that they don't want to stop the progress of technology.

The protesters referred to statements by Stephen Hawking and Tesla
found Elon Musk warning about the danger of a dark future with
intelligent robots.

What the protesters are talking about is the Singularity, the point in
time when computers will be more intelligent and more creative than
humans. At that point there will be a sharp bend in the technology
curve, since super-intelligent computers will be able to develop new
technologies exponentially faster than humans, including technologies
to make themselves faster. After that, they will essentially be
running the world.

However, it really makes no difference what these protesters say. The
first use of any new technology is in warfare, it seems likely that
robots will be making kill decisions on their own by the early 2020s.
Even if the United States halted development of super-intelligent
robots, development would continue in China, India, Europe, Japan, and
elsewhere in the world. So the Singularity is coming whether the
protesters like it or not. USA Today and Tech Crunch

Yemen's Iran-back ethnic Houthis, who have been in control of the
capital city Sanaa since late last year, have ordered for a "general
mobilization," through a statement from their Supreme Revolutionary
Committee. The call was for land, marine and air forces to confront
and eradicate terrorism, referring to the double suicide bombing that killed 137 people during Friday
prayers at two Shia mosques in Sanaa. However, it's believed that the
real target of the mobilization is Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, the
internationally recognized president of Yemen, who fled last month
from Sanaa to the southern city of Aden, where he's being supported by
Sunni tribes.

It's believed that the general mobilization means that Houthi forces,
combined with militias loyal to former Shia president Ali Abdullah
Saleh, will deploy to the south to attack Hadi and his forces. There
have already been air strikes in Aden ordered by the Houthis, who have
taken control of the air force. However, there have been reports that
the pilots of the warplanes dumped their bombs into the water,
indicating that they're not loyal to the Houthis.

Another possible complication is the present of two Sunni terrorist
groups, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). There have been
reports of them fighting each other, and there have been other reports
of them cooperating to target Houthis.

There's also a group of militias known as the "Southern Secessionist
Movement" that are advocating splitting Yemen into two countries,
South Yemen and North Yemen, as was the case prior to 1990. These
militias are reported to be fighting alongside AQAP and/or alongside
Hadi's supporters against the Houthis.

Fears are growing for a wider civil war in Yemen very soon. As I've
been reporting, there is already a large, growing war of Muslims
versus Muslims in northern Africa, the Mideast, and south Asia, and
this war is going to continue to grow until it's a full-fledged
sectarian war engulfing the entire region. SABA (Yemen/Houthi) and
Press TV (Tehran) and Anadolu (Turkey)

US military forces evacuating Yemen, fearing AQAP attacks

The United States is evacuating the last of its troops and special
forces units from Yemen, where they are stationed at Al Anad air base
in southern Yemen, near the city of al-Houta. The reason for the
quick withdrawal is that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
seized the city of al-Houta on Friday, raising concerns about an
attack on the air base itself. The American forces have been training
Yemen's military forces in counterterrorism operations, and have also
been gathering intelligence to target AQAP terrorists and other
militants from US airstrikes. CNN and
NBC News

Yemen suicide bombings bring sectarian civil war closer

Aftermath of suicide bombing of Shia mosque in Sanaa during Friday prayers (SABA)

Suicide bombers on Friday in Yemen blew up two busy Shia mosques in
the capital city Sanaa, during Friday prayers when the mosques were
packed with people. At least 137 died, with 357 injured.

As I reported yesterday, the war
in Yemen widened when Iran-backed Houthis, who took control last year
of the capital city Sanaa, expanded the Yemen war by attacking targets
in Aden in the south of Yemen, where Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, the Sunni
internationally recognized president, had fled.

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
has taken credit for the attack. However, it's believed that the
actual perpetrators were a local anti-Houthi terrorist group that has
linked itself with ISIS. ISIS has become a brand name, and any terror
group rebranding itself as ISIS gets them attention, money and
recruits.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is headquartered in
Yemen, condemned the attack because it targeted mosques. However,
that al-Qaeda linked Taliban in Afghanistan regularly bomb Shia
mosques.

Yemen is currently in total chaos, with two governments, two capitals,
and with the army split between the two. Friday's bombings were the
worst violence that Yemen has seen in years, and has raised sectarian
tensions to an alarming level. AQAP is taking advantage of the chaos
by targeting both sides. Yemen's Shia former president Ali Abdullah
Saleh has allied with the Houthis and is fighting against Hadi and his
Sunni tribe supporters. Iran is actively supporting the Houthis with
weapons and forces, while Saudi Arabia is considering whether to
support Hadi. As I've predicted many times, the Mideast is headed for
war, and now Yemen may be close to a sectarian proxy war. Saba News (Yemen) and
Toronto Star and BBC

I've been watching the political circus these last few weeks with a
great deal of bemusement. I take no position on whether it was a good
idea or bad idea for Republicans to invite Israel's prime minister to
speak to Congress, and the same for Congress to send a letter to
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.

What's been astonishing is to watch the almost hysterical overreaction
by the Administration. If they'd simply issued a statement like, "The
Republicans have a right to do these things, but they're not helpful,"
then they would have scored points without embarrassing themselves and
making themselves look like petulant teenagers.

The latest such incident occurred during the last minute campaigning
in Israel's election, when Netanyahu said that there would be no
Palestinian state on his watch:

"I think that anyone who is going to establish a
Palestinian state and open up territory is giving radical Islam a
space to attack the State of Israel. Whoever ignores this is
burying his head in the sand."

This is actually a perfectly reasonable statement, based on Israel's
experience since Gaza was evacuated in 2005. But, once again, the
reaction from Washington was close to hysterical, with hints that the
Administration might turn against Israel in the United Nations, or
even cut off aid to Israel.

In fact, this is exactly what I've been saying time and again for 12
years. The very first Generational Dynamics analysis that I posted, in May 2003, was that President
George Bush's brand new "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which advocated a
two-state solution by 2005, would fail, because the young generation
of Palestinian militants would never allow it. That's been proven
true time and time again, and today it's so evidently true that it's
hard to believe that anyone could possibly believe that a two-state
solution is possible. When I wrote it in 2003 it was a novel
prediction, but today you'd have to be crazy to believe that a
two-state solution is possible.

So now Netanyahu is saying what I've been saying for 12 years, and the
reaction from the Administration is threats and hysteria.

This is highly personal for me, as I've discovered that as one
Generational Dynamics prediction after another comes true, I become
the target of scorn and abuse, usually by people who absolutely no
idea what's going on in the world. Being right means nothing to these
people.

So one might ask why Generational Dynamics is right in one analysis
and prediction after another, while mainstream politicians, analysts
and journalists are wrong at least half the time.

They don't do their homework. Back in 2006,
the Congressional Quarterly did a survey of Mideast 'experts' in Washington, and discovered that they
didn't know the correct answers to simple questions like the
difference between Sunni and Shia, or whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or
Shia organization. The London Times followed up with a similar survey
in London, with similar results.

I see this all the time in mainstream articles. The author is too
lazy to do the research necessary to support his article. I typically
look at and save copies of 20-40 articles from multiple sources for
each World View column. Also, I try to find articles that talk about
what the PEOPLE are saying, not what the politicians are saying.
So if I'm writing about an event in Pakistan, I'll read as many
articles as I can find FROM PAKISTAN, as well as articles from other
sources that I trust. It's particularly helpful to listen to on-site
reports from reporters on BBC or al-Jazeera, because they often
provide analyses that don't make their way into print. I don't want
to risk the humiliation of getting anything wrong. And if I do make a
mistake, I apologize and correct it immediately. Mainstream
politicians, analysts and journalists do little research, and when
they make mistakes they become defensive and abusive to anyone who
points them out. I doubt that any of them could tell you anything
about the Battle of Karbala, or about Iran's Constitutional
Revolution. If you know nothing about these things, then you're going
to make one stupid mistake after another, just as you would if you
were writing about US politics, but know nothing about the Civil or
Revolutionary wars. You will be incredibly stupid about the present
if you know nothing about the past.

They only listen to politicians and each other. This
is related to the previous point. If you're too lazy to do research,
then the easiest thing to do is to just quote a liberal politician (if
you're liberal) or a conservative politician (if you're conservative)
or another journalist who thinks like you. That's the stupid leading
the stupid. As I've pointed out many times, it's a core principle of
generational theory that even in a dictatorship, major policies and
events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of
people, and not by politicians. So, for example, Hitler was not the
cause of WW II. So, for example, Iran's Supreme Leader is not going
to make the final decision on whether Iran develops a nuclear weapon.
If you want to understand what's going on, you have to understand what
the people think, not what the politicians or your friends think.

The reason that mainstream politicians, journalists and analysts are
so frequently wrong is because they're too lazy to do research, so
they listen to each other. I would tell these people (for all the
good it will do) is that you have to do all the research, and you've
got to stop listening to politicians and to each other.

I've seen this same behavior from Gen-X managers in the computer
industry. As a software engineer, I know that the worst person to
work for is a manager who's taken a couple of computer courses in
college and thinks he's smarter than another else. These are the
people who cause the disasters that are characteristic of
Generation-X, and many Boomers as well. I've personally seen these
disasters occur when I was working at General Dynamics, Digimarc, and
Ability Networks. And the greatest IT disaster in history,
Healthcare.gov, was filled with managers who pocketed almost a billion
dollars on a $25 million project that still doesn't work right, for
the same reason. I've written several stories about these and other
disasters, and there are more stories that will come at the
appropriate times. (Paragraph
modified. 21-Mar)

Now with that background, I'll repeat a couple of Generational
Dynamics predictions that I've been making for years:

The Mideast is headed for a new war between Jews and Arabs,
refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

Now let's apply all of the above to understand the Administration's
hysterical and abusive reaction to Netanyahu's statement that there
will be no Palestinian state on his watch.

President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are
abysmally ignorant about what's going on in the world. They only
listen to each other, and they're abusive towards anyone who disagrees
with them.

They think that all they have to do is get a deal with Palestinian
Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, and the two-state solution will be
immediately solved. They have no concept about the fact that younger
generations of Palestinians, especially in Gaza where the median age
is 17, will never accept any such deal, which means that such a deal
is impossible.

They think that all they have to do is get a deal with Iran's
Supreme Leader, and Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon. They
completely oblivious to the effect of Saddam Hussein's recent WMD
attack on Iran, and they have no clue the vast majority of young
Iranians demand a nuclear weapon for self-defense.

Since their opinions are patently absurd, they're constantly
facing the fact that none of their policies works. The Obama-Kerry
team have had one foreign policy disaster after another. And when
something goes wrong, it creates a severe case of cognitive dissonance
in their minds, and they resolve it by identifying someone who's "the
problem," and become abusive and even vindictive toward that
person.

Neither of these policies -- the Palestinian policy or the Iran
policy -- can possibly ever work, and they've identified "the problem"
as being the Republicans and Benjamin Netanyahu.

The ancient Greeks understood how all of this works, which is why they
created the story of Cassandra and the Trojan Horse. When the
citizens of Troy not only ignored Cassandra but treated her abusively,
they paid the price by being nearly exterminated. Today, I'm the
modern day embodiment of Cassandra, and on this one issue, apparently
Netanyahu is Cassandra as well.

Whether it's in the computer industry, or on Wall Street, or in
politics, these policies of glorifying stupidity never end well, and
produce the world's greatest disasters and the world's worst wars.
Israel National News and CNN

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras called on European leaders to
take "bold initiatives" save Greece on Thursday, after EU leaders
continued to demand that Tsipras meet the commitments that he's
already made. Last month, the Europeans gave Tsipras a four-month
reprieve, on condition that he come up with a list of reforms to
explain how it's going to meet the existing terms of its bailout
agreement. The list of reforms would have to address a number of
economic issues, including the bloated public sector, curbing tax
evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting
generous pension and minimum wage policies. The list was due almost a
month ago, but it's becoming increasingly clear that Tsipras is not
going to provide any such list.

In fact, he's going in the opposite direction, sponsoring a
"humanitarian bill" in the Athens parliament to spend additional
government money to help Greeks in poverty.

In fact, Tsipras actually threatened EU leaders in recent comments by
saying that an influx of "jihadists and terrorists" into Europe from
Greece could be imminent, if bailout negotiations weren’t completed.

Ireland's prime minister Enda Kenny responded harshly:

"People are very encouraged to give Greece support and
to give it its time and space to come forward with sustainable
solutions, but there’s a difference between political argument and
disagreement and threats of releasing jihadists and terrorists in
Europe. That’s not acceptable."

Greece's situation is increasingly desperate. There's a bank run
going on, and 350 million euros were withdrawn from Greek banks on
Wednesday alone. Next week, pensions and public sector salaries have
to be paid, and Greece has no money to pay them. The yields (interest
rates) on Greece's 3-year bonds rose to 20.44% on Thursday.

So when Tsipras asks for "bold initiatives," what he means is that he
wants bailout money without have to make any reforms. In fact, he
actually begged EU leaders to meet with him on Thursday evening, in
the hope that they would approve more bailout money. Leaders of
France and Germany did meet with him, but without making any decision.

So the atmosphere between Tsipras and the EU is extremely poisonous,
with no compromise in sight at the present time.

As I've been saying for years, ever since Greece's financial crisis
began, no solution exists for the Greek financial crisis. And by that
I don't mean that no one has been clever enough to figure out a
solution. I mean that no solution exists. Furthermore, the longer
the situation is prolonged by "kicking the can down the road" time
after time, the worse the crisis becomes, because Greece's debt burden
keeps worsening. It's hard to avoid the feeling that a dénouement is
very close. BBC and Irish Times and Telegraph (London)

Eurogroup chairman suggests capital controls in Greece

Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who is also the
chairman of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers,
is raising the possibility of imposing capital controls on Greece
to stop the bank run that's currently in progress. According
to Dijsselbloem:

"It’s been explored what should happen if a country
gets into deep trouble -- that doesn’t immediately have to be an
exit scenario. [For Cyprus], we had to take radical measures,
banks were closed for a while and capital flows within and out of
the country were tied to all kinds of conditions, but you can
think of all kinds of scenarios."

A Greek government spokesman reacted angrily:

"It would be useful for everyone and for Mr
Dijsselbloem to respect his institutional role in the eurozone.
We cannot easily understand the reasons that pushed him to make
statements that are not fitting to the role he has been entrusted
with. Everything else is a fantasy scenario. We find it
superfluous to remind him that Greece will not be
blackmailed."

With Dijsselbloem's remarks about capital controls, and Tsipras's
comments about "jihadists and terrorists," it seems that there's a lot
of blackmail in the air. Bloomberg and Kathimerini

Houthi airstrikes bomb Aden as Yemen war widens

Explosions were heard across Aden in the south of Yemen on Thursday,
as Warplanes attacked the presidential palace in Aden, forcing Abdu
Rabu Mansour Hadi, the internationally recognized president of Yemen,
to go into hiding. Last year, the Iran-backed Shia Houthi tribes from
northern Yemen invaded and took control of the northern city of Sanaa,
the nation's capital city, forcing Hadi to flee south to Aden last
month, where he's been supported by some Sunni Muslim tribes.

The Houthis have now allied with the former president Ali Abdullah
Saleh, taken control of Yemen's air force, and are now in all out
fighting in Yemen. Iran has started regular flights between Tehran
and Sanaa, and is shipping weapons to the Houthis.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is headquartered in
Yemen, is said to be taking advantage of the situation by attack both
sides.

Yemen is on Saudi Arabia's southern border, and it's not expected that
the Saudis will indefinitely tolerate an Iran-backed Shia kingdom on
its border. In 2009, Saudi Arabia bombed the Houthis in their home
governorate of Saada. The possibility exists of a proxy war between
Iran and Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

There are hundreds of thousands of Yemenis working in Saudi Arabia.
As the war in Yemen worsens, they fear being deported back to Yemen.
In 1990, Saudi Arabia deported 850,000 Yemenis.

As we've been reporting for months, there is a large and growing
Muslim versus Muslim war throughout the Mideast, northern Africa and
south Asia, killing 5,000-10,000 Muslims every month. These wars are
both tribal and sectarian. Sooner or later, the West is going to be
dragged into one of these wars, and it will be a full-scale war
consuming the entire region. Yemen Post and AP and Reuters and Yemen Times

Kerry: US is 'deeply disturbed' by Syrian regime's chemical weapons

According to Secretary of State John Kerry, the United States is
"deeply disturbed" by reports that forces from the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad attacked the town of Sarmin as a weapon on
Tuesday. According to Kerry:

"We are looking very closely into this matter and
considering next steps. While we cannot yet confirm details, if
true, this would be only the latest tragic example of the Assad
regime's atrocities against the Syrian people, which the entire
international community must condemn."

I just have to wonder what the point of this is. The al-Assad regime
has been dropping barrel bombs laced with chlorine for years, killing
entire neighborhoods filled with women and children, and killed
hundreds of people using Sarin gas, which triggered the
Administration's disastrous flip-flop on its "red line" policy, and
let al-Assad continue with chemical weapons with impunity. Now,
suddenly, Kerry is "deeply disturbed." I never have the feeling that
this administration has any idea what's going on in the world.
Reuters

Tunisia in shock after terror attack on museum in Tunis

Police take up position behind a car near the museum on Wednesday

Terrorist acts are occurring every day around the Muslim world, so you
would think that no terrorist act in a Muslim country would be a
surprise to anyone. But Tunisians thought that they had escaped the
worst of the "Arab Spring" terror. The "Arab Spring" began in Tunisia
on January 4, 2011, when a 26-year-old Tunisian street vendor named
Mohamed Bouazizi doused himself in gasoline, and lit a match, and
burnt himself to death, in protest for government policies. Since
then, Tunisia has been mostly non-violent, unlike Egypt, Syria, and
Yemen, for example, and currently has a secular government.

So Tunisians were shocked on Wednesday by the first terrorist attack
in Tunisia in over ten years. It was the worst attack in the country
since an al-Qaida militant detonated a truck bomb in front of a
historic synagogue on the Tunisia's island of Djerba in 2002, killing
21, mostly German tourists.

Two gunmen infiltrated security at the well-known Bardo Museum in
Tunis, right next door to the parliament building. They took and
killed 22 hostages, with 50 people injured. Almost all of the
casualties were foreign tourists, suggesting that the terrorists are
trying to cripple tourism in Tunisia, which is the country's biggest
industry. The casualties were Tunisian, French, Italian, Polish, and
Japanese.

Tunisia's president, Bej Caid Essebsi sayd:

"This is catastrophic for Tunisia. We need to stop
those kind of people [referring to terrorists] for good. ...

I want the people of Tunisia to understand firstly and lastly that
we are in a war with terror, and these savage minority groups will
not frighten us. The fight against them will continue until they
are exterminated."

Twitter accounts associated with the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) were described as overjoyed at the
attack. Tunis Times and AP

Beneath the surface, Tunisia is a terrorist breeding ground

No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack in Tunis. It
might have been Ansar al-Sharia, the Libya-based terror group that was
responsible for the murder of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians last
month, and for the murder of American ambassador J. Christopher
Stevens in Benghazi in 2012. Or it might have been a terror group
linked to Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

Tunisia has been the Arab Spring's number one success story, with a
secular, democratic government, but beneath the surface there are
problems. Tunisia has been the number one supplier of foreign
fighters to ISIS: some 3,000 Tunisians have traveled to Iraq and Syria
to join ISIS, more than any other country in the world. For years,
the vast Tunisian desert has been home to training camps for various
jihadist groups. And Tunisia has been awash with weapons, ever since
vast weapons storehouses became available following the fall of
Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.

According to a family member of an ISIS member, Tunisian preachers
are skillful at convincing young men to join ISIS:

"At Friday prayers, when a good number of Muslims get
together in the mosques, after the prayers, the imams start to
give them some advice to follow. They say, for example, 'You have
to go to Syria to kill Bashar’s army. Even if you die, you’ll go
to paradise after.' And in this way, Daesh [ISIS] got a large
number of soldiers."

That's exactly the point. As I've been saying for several months,
there is a large and growing war going on, and it's a war of Muslims
versus Muslims. All across North Africa, the Mideast, and South Asia,
Muslims are killing Muslims at the rate of 5000-10000 per month. By
comparison, only a minuscule number of Westerners are killed by
jihadists, usually a few dozen per month. And the few attacks on
Westerners, such as the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris and Wednesday's
attack in Tunis, are publicity stunts that are sensationally
successful because they get a great deal of free publicity from
Western media, which then attracts many more discontented young men
and women to join ISIS. International Business Times (20-Feb) and Bloomberg

Questions continue to swirl in Russia over assassination of Putin's opponent

India and China battle for strategic influence in the Indian Ocean

Infrastructure development project in Sri Lanka (Reuters)

India's prime minister Narendra Modi has just completed a major
tour of Indian Ocean nations with considerable strategic
significance.

The event that triggered the trip was a trip by China's president Xi
Jinping to the Maldives Islands, a group of islands in the Indian
Ocean, just southwest of the southern tip of India. Xi was the first
Chinese leader ever to visit the Maldives, and the key outcome was
agreements on a number of infrastructure projects, including bridges,
roads and a new airport. There is a palpable fear in India that China
will dominate the foreign investment sector in the Maldives, and turn
the infrastructure projects into military installations that could put
India itself in danger.

Modi was also scheduled to visit the Maldives during his travels
beginning March 11, but political turmoil forced a cancellation.
However, Modi is still traveling to Sri Lanka, Seychelles and
Mauritius.

The Seychelles is a 115-island nation located off the eastern coast of
Africa, just northeast of Madagascar. India was alarmed in 2011 at
reports that Seychelles was offering China maritime bases for military
purposes, once again because of the possibility of a military base.
This is why Modi will be looking to increase its security cooperation
with Seychelles.

Modi will also be traveling to Mauritius, an island nation just east
of Madagascar. The country has been looking to attract investments
from China, but India is providing a 1,300-tonne Indian-built patrol
vessel to help it protect its coastline.

Sri Lanka, a large island located just south of the tip of India, has
close historical and cultural linkages with India, but China has been
strengthening ties.

The previous government, headed by Mahinda Rajapaksa, was developing
closer and closer relations with China. In particular, China
supported the governing Sinhalese during the recent civil war with the
Tamils, while India has a large Tamil population. Rajapaksa awarded
China with numerous infrastructure projects, and allowed the frequent
docking of Chinese submarines in the port of Colombo, the capital
city.

However, the new government, headed by Maithripala Sirisena, has
pledged to "correct" Sri Lanka's perceived tilt towards China in the
months to come. Lowy Institute (Australia) and The Diplomat

Questions continue to swirl in Russia over assassination of Putin's opponent

Anyone who's been reading World View for the last few days is
aware that Boris Nemtsov, a high-profile political opponent of
Russia's president Vladimir Putin, was assassinated right at
the Kremlin's front door, and that five Chechens were charged
with the crime, presumably under orders from Chechnya's
strongman leader, Ramzan Kadyrov.

Now, with Putin back from his 10-day vanishing, that whole theory
has been thrown into question. The suspects are credibly claiming
that they were tortured into making a confession, and other holes
have been appearing in the argument.

It's clear from the nature of the assassination that it was done by
Kremlin insiders, so now the public is beginning to speculate that if
Kadyrov wasn't responsible, then Putin himself was responsible. There
will be more to come. PRI

Putin's return leaves more questions than answers for Russia

Vladimir Putin

Russia's president Vladimir Putin ended his 10-day disappearance on
Monday by attending his scheduled appearance with the president of
Kyrgyzstan in St. Petersburg. He was one hour late for the meeting,
and different observers described Putin as looking "healthy," "fit,"
"puffy," "sweaty," and "pale," respectively, suggesting that he may
have been ill. Putin himself offered no explanation for his absence,
except to say that "Life would be dull without rumors."

No matter what the reason for Putin's absence, the disappearance has
highlighted the potential leadership crisis in the fallout over the
assassination of Putin's very high profile political opponent Boris
Nemtsov, possibly under the orders of Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of
Chechnya. According to one Moscow commentator, the problem
is that only Putin should be able to violate any Russian law
with impunity, and the assassination seems to mean that Kadyrov
can do the same:

"The law of power is very simple. Power is the right
to use force with impunity. Whoever is able to use force with
impunity is therefore the ruler. The murder of Boris Nemtsov
forces one to suspect that Putin is no longer the strongest man in
Russia."

If a dictator is no longer able to maintain total control over the
government, then it's a potential disaster for him.

Kadyrov's boldness may be a consequence of increasingly widespread
questions about Putin's leadership, especially regarding the economy.
Although his poll numbers remain high, the economy is crashing,
largely because oil and gas prices have been crashing.

This brings the Ukraine situation into play. It's the first
anniversary of the invasion and occupation of Crimea, and Putin has
been bragging about how he fooled the West by lying about it. The occupation of Crimea is widely admired
within Russia, but the war in east Ukraine is raising many questions,
because there's no end in sight and it's costing Russia a fortune at a
time of a plunging economy.

The combination of Putin's loss of control over Kadyrov and Chechnya,
loss of control over the economy, and loss of control over east
Ukraine are combining to make Putin appear increasingly weak, a
problem that could only have been exacerbated by his mysterious,
unexplained 10-day disappearance.

So Putin may be ripe for a coup or other ouster by his growing list of
enemies, but that's not necessarily good news. Putin's successor
would most likely be from the authoritarian regime that ran the
Kremlin prior to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Furthermore,
any such successor regime could not risk showing weakness, so he's
have to be even more aggressive in many ways, including in Ukraine,
where the attack on Mariupol and all of southern Ukraine would be
launched. Such a regime would also almost certainly tighten the
screws even further on the Russian people. So, to anyone pleased with
the prospect of the departure of Vladimir Putin: Be careful what you
wish for. Irish Times and Interpreter/Paul Goble and Jamestown and Interpreter/Paul Goble

The talking points of the Russian and Chinese internet trolls

Anyone who, like myself, writes about Russia or China is likely to run
into internet trolls who are paid by the respective nations to harass
the writer and post favorable comments on forums, blogs, and news
articles. The comments range from lies and disinformation to abuse
and profanity.

Each of these trolls is given a list of talking points by the
trollmaster who hires him. A study of these internet trolls reveals
some interesting information, including their talking points.

Chinese trolls are nicknamed the "50-cent party," because it's
believed that they earn 50 cents for each posted comment. Chinese
trolls were first launched in 2004, and a 2013 estimate by researchers
at Harvard University puts the total number at 250,000 to 300,000. A
2014 email leak included a list of the trollmasters' instructions and
talking points:

To the extent possible make America the target of
criticism. Play down the existence of Taiwan

Do not directly confront [the idea of] democracy; rather, frame
the argument in terms of “what kind of system can truly implement
democracy.”

To the extent possible, choose various examples in Western
countries of violence and unreasonable circumstances to explain how
democracy is not well-suited to capitalism.

Use America’s and other countries’ interference in international
affairs to explain how Western democracy is actually an invasion of
other countries and [how the West] is forcibly pushing [on other
countries] Western values.

Use the bloody and tear-stained history of a [once] weak people
[i.e., China] to stir up pro-Party and patriotic emotions.

Increase the exposure that positive developments inside China
receive; further accommodate the work of maintaining [social]
stability.

As an aside, my web site has been attacked a number of times by
Chinese hackers.

Few details are known about Russia's internet troll program, but an
undercover operation in St. Petersburg revealed that trolls are paid
about $36.50 for an 8-hour work day. According to information that
we posted last year in "Russia
uses an army of trolls on social media," each troll is expected to
maintain six Facebook accounts, posting three times a day in each. On
Twitter, they're expected to manage 10 accounts and tweet 50 times a
day.

Russia has an extremely aggressive troll organization known as the
"G-Team." They are anti-American, anti-Semitic, and anti-liberal, and
go further than simply trolling in some cases by threats of physical
harm and even murder. The trollmasters' instructions and talking
points include the following:

Whitewashing Stalinism.

A sensitivity to casting the KGB/FSB in a negative light.

Loyalty to the Putin regime.

Support of the Chechen War.

Anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism.

Nostalgia for the USSR.

Hatred of intelligentsia, particularly emigrants.

Hatred of dissidents and human rights advocates.

In the last year, a new talking point has been added: "labeling the
Ukrainian government fascist." Geopolitical Monitor

Oil prices continue to crash

North Dakota daily oil production and price

The above graph shows dramatically what's been happening with
oil prices, which are now approaching $40 per barrel.

The green line shows Barrels of Oil Produced Daily (BOPD) in North
Dakota, where there are many fracking rigs. The black line shows
the price variations (dollars per barrel of oil = $/BO) since 1970.

New oil fracking technology has caused an explosion in output from US
rigs, starting around 2010 when oil was at $120 per barrel, and oil
production has been increasing hyperbolically since then. Oil prices
have crashed in the last year, and it would not be surprising to see
them fall to $30 per barrel or even $15 per barrel, a price last seen
in 2000.

As oil prices have been crashing, the number of rigs has been falling
steadily. But oil production has been continuing to increase because
the best producing of the existing rigs have low marginal costs, and
can make money even when oil is well below $40 per barrel. In fact,
despite the tumbling number of active rigs, the U.S. is pumping more
oil than any time since 1972.

This is a huge economic dislocation that's affecting not only Russia
but many other countries as well. It's expected to go on for another
one or two years. Some people will be winners and some will be
losers, and there are certain to be unintended consequences. North Dakota Drilling and Production Statistics and Bloomberg

Pakistani Christians block a street during a protest in Karachi on Sunday, following attacks on churches in Lahore. (AFP)

Violent riots by Christians followed the suicide bombing of two
churches, one Catholic and one Protestant, in the predominantly
Christian Youhanabad district of Lahore, the capital of Punjab
province in eastern Pakistan.

The bombings themselves killed 15 people, including two policemen,
injuring at least 70 others. At one church, a guard prevented the
suicide bomber from entering the church, and was killed when the
bomber detonated the explosive. The other explosion took place inside
the church, causing most of the casualties.

Some 4,000 Christians later took to the streets in Lahore, many armed
with clubs as they smashed vehicles and attacked a city bus. Two
people were accused by the mob of being behind the explosions, and
were attacked and killed by the mob. There was also rioting in other
Pakistan cities, including Islamabad and Karachi.

Christians make up around 2 per cent of Pakistan’s mainly Muslim
population of 180 million. They have been targeted in attacks and
riots in recent years, often over allegations of blasphemy regarding
the Koran or Mohamed. Sunday's attacks on Christians were the worst
since September 2013, when a double suicide-bombing in Peshawar killed
82 people. That came months after more than 3,000 Muslim protesters
torched some 100 houses as they rampaged through Joseph Colony,
another Christian neighborhood of Lahore, following blasphemy
allegations against a Christian man.

According to an editorial in the widely read Dawn news site:

"THE suicide attacks against two churches in Lahore
yesterday could have been just another gruesome incident in the
long list of horrors that has been inflicted on this country in
recent years.

The reaction by sections of the Christian community in Lahore and
other cities of the country — with protesters taking to the
streets and some turning to violence that resulted in two deaths —
though suggests that the state’s halting response to the terrorism
threat is leading to dangerous ruptures in society.

When non-Muslim and sectarian communities take to the streets in
protest and turn to mob violence, it surely reflects the acute
stress and intolerable strain that they are under. While all mob
violence is deplorable, perhaps the lesson for the state here is
that endless violence and horrors visited on a population lead to
fear taking over and ugliness manifesting itself."

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar claims credit for Lahore bombings, rejoins TTP

The terror group Jamaat-ul-Ahrar claimed responsibility for
the attack in Lahore, and promised that there would be more
attacks.

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar was formed last year in September, when several terror
groups splintered off from the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban -
TTP) because of a major leadership dispute within the TTP. At that
time, a group of TTP commanders formed Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, taking with
them several Taliban factions from Pakistan's tribal areas.

Last week, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and two other major terrorist groups
rejoined the TTP, after a meeting in which the leadership issues were
presumably resolved, although a new leader of the combined group has
not yet been chosen. The spokesman for Jamaat-ul-Ahrar issued this
statement:

"We congratulate the Ummat-e-Muslima [the Muslim
community] in common and especially the Mujahideen of Pakistan for
the coalition of strong Jihadi groups, Tehrik-e-Taliban [Movement
of the Taliban] Pakistan, Jamaat ul Ahrar,
Tehrik-e-Lashkar-e-Islam and Tehrik-e-Taliban on one name
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] against the Taghooti [satanic],
Infidel, Democratic, unIslamic system and the Na-Pak Murtad [a
Muslim who rejects Islam] Army."

Rumors abound in Russia on the disappearance of Vladimir Putin

Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who has not been seen in public
since March 5, is scheduled to meet with the president of Kyrgyzstan
in St. Petersburg on Monday (today). Moscow has been a-buzz with
rumors about Putin has disappeared, and a Monday appearance should
bring some resolution.

Until then, here are some of the rumors going around:

He has the flu, and doesn't want to be seen with the
flu because that would spoil his macho image with the public.

He gets regular Botox injections, and one of them went wrong last
week, badly disfiguring him.

He's in Vienna being treated for back problems.

He's in Switzerland with his girlfriend, who just gave birth to a
love child, as I reported yesterday. According to Peskov, "The information on a baby born to
Vladimir Putin is false. I am going to ask people who have money to
organize a contest on the best media rumor."

The main speculation is that his disappearance is related to a major political crisis that I described days ago triggered by the assassination of Putin's very high
profile political opponent Boris Nemtsov, possibly under the orders of
Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya. The most extreme version of
this rumor is that Kadyrov's Chechen men are planning to kill other
Putin opponents, and Putin is hiding for fear of retribution. Even if
Putin makes an appearance in St. Petersburg on Monday, the rumors
about a political crisis over the Nemtsov assassination will continue.
Guardian (London) and Daily Mail (London)

Is Vladimir Putin spending time with his girlfriend and love child?

Speculation continues to swirl over the reason for the complete
disappearance since March 5 of Russia's president Vladimir Putin from
public view, including the cancellation of several long-scheduled
meetings and ceremonies.

Now the New York Post is claiming with some certainty that
Putin, 62, is in Switzerland for the birth of a new daughter by his
long-time mistress Alina Kabaeva, 31.

Putin has angrily denied having Kabaeva as a mistress. In 2008, I
wrote "Putin angrily denies divorce rumors and shuts down newspaper reporting them", and
described how Russia's president Vladimir Putin terrorized a female
reporter at a joint press conference with Silvio Berlusconi when she
asked a question about a rumored affair with Alina Kabaeva, while
Berlusconi helped out by gesturing with his hand pretending to shoot
the reporter. Finally, in 2013, Putin divorced his wife, with whom he
has two children, and continued to deny that Kabaeva is his mistress.

As I reported yesterday, many
analysts are convinced that Putin's disappearance has a much deeper
explanation, a Moscow political crisis related to the assassination of
political opponent Boris Nemtsov. Putin's next scheduled public
appearance is on Monday, when he's scheduled to meet with the
president of Kyrgyzstan in St. Petersburg. New York Post

Fighting heats up on Myanmar (Burma) border with China

China is threatening "decisive action" against Burma (Myanmar), after
a bomb from a Burmese warplane fell into Chinese territory and killed
four Chinese people. This comes days after a stray shell from Burma
flattened a house in Chinese territory. Beijing has summoned Burma's
ambassador, and has launched warplanes to patrol the border between
the two countries.

The ethnic fighting in Burma (Myanmar) that began in early February is
growing in intensity, and causing a confrontation between Burma and
China. The fighting is taking place in Burma's Kokang Special Region,
on the border with China, and it's between Burma's army and the Kokang
people, who are ethnically Chinese.

Some 30,000 Kokang have fled across the border into China, where they
live in refugee camps. Burmese officials claim Kokang attacks are
being launched from Chinese territory, and that Chinese mercenaries
are fighting in support of the Kokang. Burmese officials are
demanding that China prevent this, but Chinese officials are denying
that it's happening at all.

It's occurred to a lot of people that this situation is similar to the
situation with Russia and Ukraine. Russia has justified its invasion
and occupation of portions of Ukraine by the need to "protect" the
Russian people living in Ukraine. Similarly, many people are
wondering when China is going to send troops into Burma for the
"protection" of the Kokang-Chinese people.

However, this presents a public relations problem for China. China
likes to claim that no one should interfere with the "internal
affairs" of another country. They say this particularly at times when
Chinese security officials are butchering Tibetans and Uighurs in
China, and they want to shut out the international community.

In the last year, they've already had to carve out several exceptions
to this holier-than-thou rule. They've intervened in the internal
affairs of Sudan when their own investments were threatened. And of
course they've supported their partner in crime, Russia, as it
interfered with the internal affairs of Ukraine.

The Chinese have already stated that the fighting in Burma is an
internal affair of Burma, but they're under increasing pressure from
their own Chinese people to do something. There have now been two
incidents in the last couple of weeks of Burmese rockets and shells
landing on Chinese territory, killing four people in one case. More
such incidents would provide an excuse for China to invade Burma, with
two possible outcomes -- a resolution of the conflict, or a spiraling
into a larger war. Reuters and LA Times and Xinhua

Report: Iran's Supreme Leader has already vetoed any nuclear deal

A report in Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a
subscriber) says that its intelligence sources have learned that
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, after vacillating
over the nuclear negotiations with the United States for months, has
now come down firmly against any deal. Secretary of State John Kerry
and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif have been working to
complete a deal by the March 31 deadline, but Khamenei has now
rejected the entire framework that they were developing. The
intelligence sources say that Iran may shut down nuclear negotiations
completely, unless the West first removes all sanctions, a request
that will not be satisfied.

A major reason given is that dissent within Iran itself has been
increasing. The dissent is spilling over from government critics to
broad sections of Iranian society, such as academics and op-ed
writers.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this is
surprising. As I've said many times, it's a core principle of
generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are
made by masses of people, by generations of people, and that
politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they're implementing the
wishes of the masses of people.

This is a good time to review Iran's strategy with regard to the
nuclear issue, which I've stated many times in the last few years,
based on a relatively straightforward analysis of Iran's history
in the last century.

First, Iran will not be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran has already been victimized by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass
destruction in the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and is now surrounded
by potential enemies -- Pakistan, Russia, Israel -- that have nuclear
weapons, with Saudi Arabia planning to obtain nuclear technology from
Pakistan. The Iranian people overwhelmingly feel that they need
nuclear technology for self-defense.

Secondly, however, Iran has no intention at all of using a nuclear
weapon on Israel. If you look at Iran's major wars in the last
century -- the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09, the Great Islamic
Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1989 --
Iran did not attack any other nation, and takes pride in not having
done so.

Another reason why Iran could not use a nuclear weapon on Israel
is that doing so would kill millions of Palestinians, and Iran
knows that the Arab backlash would be enormous, irrespective of
what happened to Israel.

Furthermore, the younger generations of Iranians, the ones that grew
up after the war, do not hate Israel, and do not wish Israel harm, and
they would be particularly opposed to any Iranian nuclear attack on
Israel.

The collapse of the Iran nuclear negotiations would be a major blow
for the Barack Obama administration. The foreign policy of Obama and
his clownish Secretary of State John Kerry has been one blunder and
reversal after another, and they were hoping for a nuclear deal to
burnish their legacies, and possibly to get Nobel Peace Prizes as a
result. Look for them to blame it on the Republicans, but preventing
Iran from developing a nuclear weapon was never a possibility.

By the way, Debka is also predicting that Benjamin Netanyahu's defeat
in Tuesday's election is a foregone conclusion, and that unless
something spectacular happens, Israel's next prime minister will be
Yitzhak Herzog. Debka

Putin's disappearance may be part of a major Moscow political crisis

Public shrine to Boris Nemtsov in Moscow (Moscow Times)

As we briefly reported yesterday,
Russia's president Vladimir Putin on Thursday canceled a
long-scheduled ceremony to sign a treaty annexing South Ossetia into
Russia, amid rumors that he was seriously ill. Putin's health is
apparently OK (though questions remain), but the fact still remains
that Putin has not been seen in public for several days, with no
satisfactory explanation.

Putin's next scheduled public appearance is on Monday, when he's
scheduled to meet with the president of Kyrgyzstan in St. Petersburg.
Perhaps we'll get some answers then.

It's increasingly believed that his disappearance is related to a
growing political crisis in Moscow following the February 27
assassination of Putin's political opponent, a liberal, Boris Nemtsov.
Nemtsov was out on a stroll with his girlfriend in a very high
security area almost on the doorstep of the Kremlin in Moscow.
Nemtsov was killed by gunmen who meticulously planned every detail.
They knew where he would be, they knew how to evade security forces
reaching him, and they knew exactly how to escape after the
assassination.

There are two important facts related to Nemtsov's killing. First, it
was not random. It was perpetrated by people who must have had a
great deal of inside information about people and security around the
Kremlin. And second, this is the highest profile assassination in
Moscow in decades. It's fairly common for the Kremlin to order the
assassination of unfriendly reporters or the massacre of any number of
anti-government protesters, including women and children, but Nemtsov
was very high profile. He was at one time the putative successor of
Boris Yeltsin to be President. Nemtsov's high profile means that
killing him does not benefit Putin, because Putin is immediately
suspected of ordering the killing. In fact, many in Putin's
opposition have been accusing Putin of exactly that.

Putin condemned the killing, and immediately took "personal control"
of the investigation, insinuating that Americans or "foreign agents"
had perpetrated the killing to make him look back. The FSB, the
successor to the old Soviet KGB, took charge of the investigation, and
soon identified the culprits as five Chechens, led by Zaur Dadayev.
Dadayev is a close associate of Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin's hand-picked
governor of Chechnya, suggesting that Kadyrov himself had ordered the
assassination in order to embarrass Putin and the Kremlin.

Chechnya is, of course, a major Muslim republic in Russia's North
Caucasus. In the 1990s, Kadyrov was a separatist rebel fighting
against the Kremlin, but who later switched sides and pledged loyalty
to Putin. Today, Kadyrov has his own army, known as the Kadyrovtsy,
and last year he was filmed giving a long speech to thousands of armed
Chechen police and special forces saying his men had pledged loyalty
to Russia, and to Putin personally, and ended by shouting:

"Long live our great motherland Russia! Long live our
national leader Vladimir Putin! Allahu Akbar!"

So what does all this have to do with the disappearance of Putin?
According to an analyst Friday on the BBC world service, Putin has
retreated because he has to find a way to deal with a potential
conflict between two armies: the FSB, which is personally loyal to
Russia, versus the Kadyrovtsy, Kadyrov's army of police and security
forces, which is personally loyal to him. The word "personally" in
each case is significant, because neither of these armies is loyal to
Russia.

Zaur Dadayev and his four alleged Chechen accomplices were brought
into court last Sunday (7-Mar), and there have been some political
theatrics since then. Dadayev confessed to the assassination, and
blamed it on Nemtsov's criticism of the terrorists who attacked the
Charlie Hebdo offices in Paris, saying that he (Dadayev) was
personally very offended by the Mohammed cartoons that had been
published.

Kadyrov confirmed Dadayev's claims by saying:

"Anyone who knows Zaur can confirm that he is a deep
believer, and that he — like all Muslims — was shocked by the
activities of Charlie Hebdo [newspaper] and by comments made in
support of reprinting the cartoons. I knew Zaur as a true Russian
patriot."

The political theatrics continued on Monday, when a Kremlin statement
announced that Kadyrov had been awarded the Order of Honor for his
"professional accomplishments, social activities and many years of
diligent work."

The great fear is that Kadyrov is only paying lip service pledging
loyalty to Putin, and that he's building up his Kadyrovtsy army in
preparation for a new separatist battle with Moscow. Chechnya was ill
prepared for the Chechen wars of the 1990s, and Russian forces put
them down rather easily. Kadyrov is going to be much better
prepared this time.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a major war between
Chechnya and Russia is coming with certainty. Chechnya's last crisis
war was World War II, climaxing with the wholesale deportation of the
Chechen people by Russian army forces in 1944. It was not until 1957
when Nikita Khrushchev permitted the Chechens to return to their
homeland, but this act was considered to be a Russian genocide of the
Chechen people, and young Chechens today, many of whom are in
Kadyrov's Kadyrovtsy army, are looking forward to the day when the get
revenge, and Nemtsov's murder might have been the first step in
getting revenge. Moscow Times
and RFE/RL(19-Jan) and BBC Podcast (MP3)

Greece threatens to confiscate German property as war reparations

Nazi soldiers raising the swastika flag on the Acropolis

Greece's government has threatened to seize German property in Greece
as compensation for a World War II Nazi atrocity, the massacre of 218
civilians in the central Greek village of Distomo on June 10, 1944.
In 2000, Greece's Supreme Court ruled that Germany owed the relatives
of the victims of the Distomo massacre 28 million euros. The
decision was not enforced at the time, and the Greek government
is attempting to enforce it now.

Among possible assets that could be seized are property belonging to
Germany's archaeological school and the Goethe Institute, a cultural
association.

Germany rejects the claims, saying that the 1990 "Two Plus Four
Treaty" settled the matter. One German political threatened reprisals
if Greece seized German property: "The subject has been closed since
the 1950s. If it came to Greek violations of German property, Germany
would know how to defend itself."

Then there was a new development on Thursday.

Greece has lodged a formal complaint against Germany for an insult by
Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. According to press
reports, Schäuble called Greece's Yanis Varoufakis "foolishly naïve"
in his dealings with the media following EU discussions in Brussels on
Wednesday.

South Ossetia discourages trips to Georgia for medical care

An embarrassment to officials in both occupied South Ossetia and
Russia is that many South Ossetians travel to Georgia for medical
care.

It's not an easy trip, either. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, and
occupied and retained control of two of Georgia's provinces, South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, Russia has closed the border between
South Ossetia and Georgia, and so the only way for a South Ossetia to
reach Georgia is to go north into Russia, and then travel back into
Georgia. Thus, they have to cross the Main Caucasus Ridge twice, a
particularly difficult journey in winter.

Leonid Tibilov, South Ossettia's Russian-appointed leader, says that
"in the overwhelming majority of cases there is no need whatsoever for
patients to go to the neighboring country. We have to develop our own
medical centers and attract specialists. We are already doing it
actively – we are launching construction of a modern medical center
with relevant equipment." However, no modern clinic has appeared in
South Ossetia since the 2008 invasion.

According to South Ossetia's healthcare minister, Grigory Kulidzhanov,
most patients "are ignoring" the government decree:

"Often people appeal [to the healthcare ministry]
insisting on sending them to hospitals in Georgia, ignoring
offered alternative to receive medical treatment on the territory
of Russia. Of course we can help a person when it is a
life-and-death issue and we are doing it, turning a blind eye on
political aspects, but in most of the cases requests for sending
them to Georgia have no clear justification, meaning that similar
treatment can also be provided on the territory of Russia,
including in North Ossetia."

Kulidzhanov makes the point that if patients really want to leave
South Ossetia for medical care, they could easily go to a hospital in
Russia.

However, a Georgian official points out that Georgia has "a
high-quality and non-corrupt healthcare system." Referring to
Tskhinvali, capital city of South Ossetia, and to Tbilisi, the capital
city of Georgia, he said, "in order to receive the same level of
medical assistance, residents of Tskhinvali would have to go to Moscow
or St. Petersburg, but that is very far away, while Tbilisi is only a
40-minute drive from Tskhinvali."

There is late news that Vladimir Putin has on Thursday canceled a
long-scheduled ceremony to sign a treaty annexing South Ossetia into
Russia. There are rumors that Putin is in ill health, but those
rumors are being denied by a Kremlin spokesman. EurasiaNet and Jamestown and Civil (Georgia) and
International Business Times

China will be building two of the most technologically advanced
nuclear reactors in the world less than 20 miles from downtown
Karachi, which has about 20 million residents. The port city of
Karachi is considered to be the economic capital of Pakistan.
According to one activist trying to get the project halted:

"You are talking about a city one-third the population
of the United Kingdom. If there would be an accident, this would
cripple Karachi, and if you cripple Karachi, you cripple
Pakistan."

The world has already experienced three major nuclear accidents — at
Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979, at Chernobyl in the
former Soviet Union in 1986, and the Fukushima disaster in Japan in
2011. A disaster that these new nuclear plants could kill millions of
people in Karachi. In addition, Pakistan suffers almost daily acts of
terrorism from the Taliban, and so a terrorist attack would be of
major concern. Dawn (Pakistan)

Russia plans military development, including nuclear weapons, in Crimea

Fears grow of Shia revenge killings in Iraq

Iraqi forces fighting in Tikrit on Wednesday

Iraqi government forces entered Tikrit on Wednesday, driving out
fighters from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), who fled the city, leaving behind hundreds of roadside
bombs, according to Iraqi officials.

The Iraqi forces are not, for the most part, from the Iraqi army.
Only a single Iraqi army brigade, about 3,000 soldiers, are involved.
The bulk of the force are 20,000 fighters from Shia tribal militias,
known as Hashid Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces. There are also
about 1,000 Sunni tribesmen in the force.

This entire force is under the command of a Ghasem Soleimani, a top
general in Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), supported by
dozens of Iranian military advisers.

Tikrit is the home town of Saddam Hussein, and when he was in power,
Saddam Hussein was violent and brutal to the Shias. I recall numerous
stories of atrocities being committed by Saddam as one of the
justifications of the 2003 Iraq war.

So today a massive Shia army, under Iranian command, is entering
Saddam Hussein's home town, to expel ISIS and take control. As one
analyst asked, will the Sunni people of Tikrit treat the Shia army to
be liberators or invaders?

According to US Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, testifying before Congress
on Wednesday:

"We are all concerned about what happens after the
drums stop beating and ISIL is defeated, and whether the
government of Iraq will remain on a path to provide an inclusive
government for all of the various groups within it. ...

There's no doubt that the combination of the Popular Mobilization
forces and the Iraqi security forces, they're going to run ISIL
out of Tikrit.

The question is what comes after, in terms of their willingness to
let Sunni families move back into their neighborhoods, whether
they work to restore the basic services that are going to be
necessary, or whether it results in atrocities and
retribution."

Fears of Shia on Sunni atrocities and retribution will not be
unexpected. According to an Amnesty International report published
last year in October:

"In recent months, Shi’a militias have been abducting
and killing Sunni civilian men in Baghdad and around the
country. These militias, often armed and backed by the government
of Iraq, continue to operate with varying degrees of cooperation
from government forces – ranging from tacit consent to
coordinated, or even joint, operations. For these reasons, Amnesty
International holds the government of Iraq largely responsible for
the serious human rights abuses, including war crimes, committed
by these militias.

The victims were abducted from their homes, workplace or from
checkpoints. Many were later found dead, usually handcuffed and
shot in the back of the head. Reports by families of the victims
and witnesses have been corroborated by Ministry of Health
workers, who told Amnesty International that in recent months they
have received scores of bodies of unidentified men with gunshot
wounds to the head and often with their hands bound together with
metal or plastic handcuffs, rope or cloth. Photographs of several
bodies shown to Amnesty International by victims’ relatives and
others viewed at Baghdad’s morgue, reveal a consistent pattern of
deliberate, execution-style killings.

Some of the victims were killed even after their families had paid
hefty ransoms. Several families told Amnesty International how
they had received the dreaded call from the kidnappers, had
searched frantically for the ransom money and had managed to pay
it, only to discover that their loved one had still been
killed. “I begged friends and acquaintances to lend me the ransom
money to save my son, but after I paid they killed him and now I
have no way to pay back the money I borrowed, as my son was the
only one working in the family”, a grieving mother told Amnesty
International.

Scores of other victims are still missing, their fate and
whereabouts unknown, weeks and months after they were
abducted."

These kinds of atrocities, Sunni on Shia, were the norm when Saddam
Hussein was power. Once the US ended the war with the "surge," most
of these atrocities ended. But once the US forces withdrew, the
atrocities returned, this time Shia on Sunni.

During Wednesday's testimony before Congress, American officials
spelled out six concerns that U.S. officials have about Iran:

a proliferation of surrogate and proxy groups in the region’s
conflicts

arms trafficking

development of ballistic missile technology

the creation of heavy mines that could be used to close the Strait
of Hormuz

Russia plans military development, including nuclear weapons, in Crimea

In January, Russian officials said that they will be reinforcing the
military on Crimea in 2015:

"In 2015, the Defense Ministry’s main efforts will
focus on an increase of combat capabilities of the armed forces
and increasing the military staff in accordance with military
construction plans. Much attention will be given to the groupings
in Crimea, Kaliningrad and the Arctic."

This week, Russia's Foreign Ministry added to the information by
saying that nuclear weapons are on the table. According to Mikhail
Ulyanov, head of the Department for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and
Weapons Control, referring to Crimea:

"I don’t know if there are any nuclear weapons there
at the moment and I am not aware of such plans, but in principle
Russia can do this.

Naturally Russia has the right to put nuclear weapons in any
region on its territory if it deems it necessary. We hold that we
have such a right, though Kiev has a different opinion on this
matter."

This is typical of the kind of garbage that comes out of the mouths of
Russian officials almost every day.

Ulyanov is head of Russia's Department for Nuclear Non-Proliferation,
but he has no idea whether Russia has put nuclear weapons into Crimea?
That's certainly credible, isn't it.

But Crimea is not Russian territory. It's a part of Ukraine that
Russia's army has invaded and is occupying. It was just a couple of
days ago that Russia's president Vladimir Putin admitted that he had lied last year about Russia's
invasion of Crimea. It appears that Russia is planning a major
military buildup in occupied Crimea in order to threaten all the
nations bordering the Black Sea, including Turkey, Georgia, Bulgaria
and Romania. Russia Today

Iran elects hardliner to head Assembly of Experts

84 year old Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi

Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, born 1931, was elected on Tuesday to be
chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that will
choose Iran's next Supreme Leader, when the 76-year-old current
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei dies.

The election was a surprise, because Yazdi is considered to be an
extreme hardliner, and it's assumed that if Khamenei dies, then he'll
be replaced by another hardliner.

Last week, I described significant possible policy changes in Iran that his death could trigger due to
generational differences between the survivors of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the generations that grew up after the
revolution. Those policy changes can only take place if a
representative of the views of the younger generation is chosen as the
next Supreme Leader. It doesn't matter how old the selectee is. It
only matters whether he holds the hardline views of the Great
Revolution survivors or the views of the generations that grew up
after the war. AEI Iran Tracker and BBC

Greece's deflationary spiral continues with consumer prices down 2.2%

Greece's consumer prices fell 2.2% in February, compared with a year
earlier. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.6% compared with January.

Housing prices led the plunge, falling 7.1%. The only product
categories to show a rise were food, up 0.9%, and alcohol and tobacco
goods, where prices rose 2.0%.

In the eurozone as a whole, consumer prices fell 0.3% in February,
after falling 0.6% in January. In the US, the CPI fell 0.7% in
January. In China, the economy is not yet deflationary, but the
inflation rate is much lower than Beijing's target. In other words,
much of the world is spiraling into deflation.

As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics has been predicting a
deflationary spiral for years, despite the insistence by almost every
mainstream economist that, because of near-zero interest rates and
quantitative easing, the economy would become inflationary or even
hyperinflationary. It's worth taking a moment to review what's going
on here, in case any mainstream economist is reading and wants to
learn something (which, based on experience, is very unlikely).

In the 70s, 80s and 90s, the Fed could reasonably control inflation by
setting appropriate interest rates. Generally speaking, lowering
interest rates means that people can borrow more, and they use the
money to buy things or to hire employees. This creates a demand for
things and employees, which, by the law of supply and demand, means
that prices and wages should go up, causing inflation. Quantitative
easing, where the Fed "prints money" and pours it into the banking
system, should create even more inflation. That's why mainstream
economists keep talking about inflation.

I always like to make fun of the fact that mainstream economists
cannot explain the tech bubble of the late 1990s -- why it occurred at
all, and why it occurred then, instead of a decade earlier during the
PC technology explosion, or a decade later. The answer is that the
1990s is exactly the time when the risk-averse survivors of the Great
Depression all disappeared -- retired or died -- all at the same time,
leaving behind younger generations having no clue what could go wrong
with the economy. Mainstream economists are from these younger
generations with no clue.

Mainstream economists (including those in the so-called "Austrian
school") think that inflation is determined by the amount of money in
circulation as set by monetary policy -- interest rates and
quantitative easing. And you can find thousands of articles in the
past decade explaining why continued low interest rates would cause
inflation.

But anyone who's taken Economics 1.01 knows that inflation is caused
by two factors: the amount of money in circulation times the velocity
of money. You can google "velocity of money" for a full explanation,
but it represents how frequently money is actually used to buy things
or pay wages. The velocity of money has been plummeting in the last
decade, meaning that all that money that the Fed has been spewing out
in the form of low interest rates and quantitative easing has just
been sitting in bank accounts, and not used for purchases and wages.
Actually, it's been used by hedge funds and already-wealthy investors
to invest in the stock market, pushing up the Wall Street stock
bubble. With the velocity of money plummeting, inflation has been
plummeting as well, defying the mainstream economists.

The size of the money supply is set by monetary policy, but it turns
out that the velocity of money is set by generational changes. In a
generational crisis era, like the 1930s and today, once a crisis
occurs, like the 1929 crash or the 2008 housing crash, people's moods
change dramatically. They pinch pennies, for fear of a new financial
crisis, and they refuse to buy things, causing the velocity of money
to plunge. After the 1929 crash, the mood didn't begin to lift until
the 1950s. In Japan, there was a stock market crash in 1990, and
Japan remains in a deflationary spiral to this day, 25 years later.
So this generational mood is very deep and long-lasting.

So when you hear a financial "expert" on TV say that such and such and
change in policy will encourage people to spend more money next year,
you can be sure you're listening to a clueless mainstream economist.
This deflationary spiral is going to continue and deepen for a long
time, and will trigger a new stock market crash. Bloomberg and Market Watch and Dow Jones

European Central Bank tries desperate measure to fight deflation

S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.50 on March 6 (WSJ)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is taking desperate measures to end
deflation by starting a massive quantitative easing program. On
Monday, the ECB "printed" three billion euros and used them to
purchase bonds issued by individual eurozone nations.

This huge purchase of bonds caused the prices of these bonds to up (by
the law of supply and demand). In the case of bonds, when the price
goes up, the corresponding bond yield (interest rate) goes down. So
the result of the ECB's actions on Monday was to push many bond yields
into negative territory. This means, in effect, that the ECB is
lending money to individual governments, and paying those governments
to take the money. I wish I could get that deal.

The second effect of the of the ECB's actions was to drive the value
of the euro down relative to the dollar. Or, to put it another way,
to strengthen the dollar relative to the euro.

This highlights another mistake that mainstream economists make when
they're talking about inflation. There are two completely separate
ways of looking at inflation: the internal inflation, as measured by
consumer prices, and the international inflation, as measured by the
value of the currency against other currencies. In this case, the
euro is in a deflationary spiral internally, but it's losing value
internationally. So it appears that the euro is going in two opposite
directions at the same time, one of the many dysfunctions in today's
global finance.

All this bad news in Europe affected Wall Street stocks on Tuesday,
with a 333 point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (March 6) was astronomically high
at 20.50. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating
that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any
time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to
the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982,
resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Tuesday's stock market plunge has probably already pushed the P/E
ratio down to the 18-19 range. Telegraph (London) and Reuters and Bloomberg

Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea

Europe to Greece: Stop wasting time and get serious about reforms

Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea

Vladimir Putin during interview in documentary to be aired on Russian TV

Russia's president Vladimir Putin said in an interview in a
forthcoming TV documentary that he ordered the invasion and annexation
of Crimea weeks before it occurred, during a period of time when he
repeatedly lied about the presence of Russian troops and about his
intentions. He gives as a reason for his decision that Ukraine's
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych had been ousted and his life was in
danger, but he doesn't explain why that justifies invading another
country and annexing its territory.

This whole situation has almost been a laugh factory. Based on news
reports it was perfectly obvious to me and Nato officials and other
that Putin was lying, but in the United Nations and other official
forums it was necessary to play the game that Nato says this but
Russia says that. And then there was Putin's army of paid Russian trolls, whose job was to harass
people like me who were describing what was really going on. I had
the honor of being targeted by no less than three of the trolls on
different web sites, and one of them visited me just last week to say
that it wasn't anti-government Ukraine Russians who shot down
Malaysian Airlines MH17.

Putin's constant lying, and contempt for everyone else, has at least
taken a toll. Secretary of State John Kerry and other officials have
called Putin a liar. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who originally
tried to remain neutral, has become the unlikely leader of the
pro-Ukrainian cause, though still restricted to diplomatic means.

There is an increasing realization among European officials that the
European experiment is failing, and not just because the euro currency
is in trouble. The two world wars were a huge bloodbath across the
entire continent, and the purpose of the European experiment was to
make sure it didn't happen again. One cornerstone of that experiment
was to prevent any dictator from unilaterally redrawing country
borders again, as Hitler had done. And if the EU cannot stop Russia
from redrawing its borders with Ukraine, then the European Union will,
literally, be a failure. BBC and AFP and Reuters

Europe to Greece: Stop wasting time and get serious about reforms

Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the Eurogroup of
eurozone financial ministers is telling Greece to "stop wasting time."
Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis on Friday provided the
Eurogroup with a list of reforms, but the list was vague, without any
real reforms.

Greece's new radical left-wing government, headed by prime minister
Alexis Tsipras, won a four-month reprieve two weeks ago, when the
Eurogroup agreed to continue funding the Greek bailout until July,
provided that Tsipras submits a detailed implementation plan for
meeting the austerity commitments.

So far, Greece has made vague promises with no specifics. The
Eurogroup met on Monday in Brussels and reviewed Tsipras's vague list.
According to Dijsselbloem:

"We agreed there is no further time to lose. ... We
have to stop wasting time and really start talks seriously. We’ve
lost over two weeks — in which very little progress has been
made. The real talks haven’t started yet. There has been no
implementation."

So on Wednesday, the "institutions" will go to Athens to hammer out an
implementation. The "institutions" are the organizations bailing out
Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank
(ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These three
organizations used to be called "the troika," but Tsipras hates the
word "troika" and made a campaign promise that there would be "No more
troika!". So, there's no longer a troika. Now there are "three
institutions."

That's just about the only campaign promise he's kept. He promised
other things, particularly that he would convince the Europeans to cut
Greece's outstanding debt in half, and to allow a "significant
moratorium" on debt repayments. Those and other promises have been
completely abandoned. As a result, Tsipras is facing pressure from
Greece's far left. Anarchist riots started again recently, and
Syriza's political office was overrun by protesters over the weekend.

In fact, not only is Greece not meeting its commitments, it's slipping
backwards, in an attempt to appease the hard left. Over the weekend,
Tsipras said that he would be submitting legislation to provide free
food and electricity to 300,000 poor households, stretching repayment
terms for those behind on their taxes (with up to 100 installments!)
and freezing home foreclosures.

There is a great deal of nervousness about the upcoming meeting in
Athens on Wednesday. History tells us that they'll "kick the can down
the road" again, but positions have been hardening, and it's possible
they'll end up with blood on the floor.

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei makes public appearance on Sunday

Khamenei in a meeting at his home in Tehran on Sunday (AP)

Three days ago I wrote "6-Mar-15 World View -- Khamenei's illness may signal generational policy change in Iran", in which I referred to media reports that Iran's 76
year old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has been
hospitalized in critical condition with prostate cancer. I described
significant policy changes in Iran that his death could trigger due to
generational differences between the survivors of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the generations that grew up after the
revolution. Since then, the media reports have morphed into
widespread rumors of Khamenei's death.

However, Khamenei was well enough on Sunday to participate in a
meeting in his home with environmental activists. The television
pictures that aired made him look comfortable and healthy. So it
looks like we're going to have to wait a little longer for that policy
change. The National (UAE)/AP

Mali's capital city Bamako in shock after terror attack

Northern Mali has been bloodied repeatedly starting in 2012, with a
separatist rebellion by the ethnic Tuaregs, which was overtaken by
terrorist attacks by the al-Qaeda linked Ansar Dine, and then further
attacks by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The Islamist
attacks resulted in the destruction in Timbuktu of centuries-old
shrines and mosques, along with tens of thousands of ancient
manuscripts.

But through all of that, Mali's capital city Bamako, in southern Mali,
has escaped the chaos, until Saturday. Residents of Bamako were
stunned to hear that a masked gunman sprayed bullets into La Terrasse
restaurant and bar killing five people, including a Frenchman and a
Belgian. The AQIM-linked terror group Al Mourabitoun (The Sentinels),
led by Algerian terroris Moktar Belmoktar, claimed responsibility,
saying that it was "to avenge our prophet against the unbelieving West
which has insulted and mocked him," and in revenge for the killing of
a leader of the Al Mourabitoun group in a French-Malian military
operation.

In addition to five deaths, there were seven people injured, including
two international experts working for the United Nations. No sooner
did the UN put out a statement condemning the attack in Bamako,
terrorists attacked a UN base in northern Mali with 30 rockets and
shells targeting the base, killing one UN soldier and two civilian
children.

As I've been describing for months, there is a large and growing
Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia,
and it seems to worsen in one way or another every week. This is
a strong historical trend, and at some point it will pull us
and the West into it.
Irish Independent and United Nations and AFP

Are ISIS and Boko Haram 'far right' extremists?

Fawaz Gerges, London School of Economics, occasionally appears on news
shows analyzing Mideast events. Appearing on al-Jazeera on Sunday,
Gerges was asked to comment on Friday's announcement by Boko Haram that
it was pledging allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The interview was interesting on a couple of levels. Gerges said that
Boko Haram was so extremist, that al-Qaeda would not be interested,
while ISIS has not been interested in the past, though may be changing
its mind. The interview was also interesting for Gerges's bizarre
characterization of ISIS and Boko Haram as "far-right extremists." My
transcription:

"Ironically, in the last few months, ISIL has not
really responded to the many messages by Boko Haram (BK) praising
ISIL, and that tells me that even ISIL, one of the most extremist
jihadist organizations, have viewed BK as a liability.

But my take now if you ask me if Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the leader
of ISIL, would accept the fealty of BK, I would say yes. Yes,
because it's a win-win.

It shows ISIL as the leader of the global jihadist movement, that
jihadists near and far, in particular militant activists, whether
you're talking about Egypt or Yemen or Algeria or Afghanistan or
Pakistan, and now Boko Haram, are basically praising and saying
they want to be part of this winning horse. ISIL is being seen as
a winning horse, as a powerful organization.

And even if ISIL accepts the allegiance or the fealty by BK, then
little will change. Remember, BK is desperate for legitimization.
It would like to be part of ISIL which is seen as a basically
winning horse, but nothing would change on the ground.

But the reality is you're talking about ISIL and BK, two sides of
the same coin, really on the far right of the jihadist movement,
and would argue that Ayman al-Zawarhiri, the leader of al-Qaeda
central, would really hesitate to accept any kind of allegiance
from BK, because BK is seen as ISIL is seen as very extremist,
very nihilistic, really on the far right of all militant
organizations that exist today."

Gerges very clearly emphasized the phrase "far right," even repeating
it, and so we have to assume that Gerges wants to burnish his own far
left credentials. Gerges holds the Emirates Chair in Contemporary
Middle Eastern Studies at the London School of Economics and Political
Science and in today's society, political scientists are almost always
far left.

But what makes it so bizarre is that "right" and "left," as applied to
politics, is a European concept, and it doesn't really make any sense
outside of Europe (and North America) because politics is so different
in other regions. In the Mideast, if ISIS is "far right," then who's
"far left"? Al-Qaeda? Hezbollah? Iran? It's an almost meaningless
question.

But it's also bizarre for another reason. In the French Revolution,
where the terms "left" and "right" were first applied to politics, the
extremists perpetrating the Reign of Terror were on the left, while
the politicians on the right opposed it. So it's hard to see how ISIS
and Boko Haram could be called "far right" in any conceivable sense.

I guess you can't trust anyone these days (except me) not to put an
ideological spin on something where it doesn't even make sense.

Libya's two rival governments in unity talks to fight ISIS

Libyan police in Tripoli (Reuters)

Even a couple of weeks ago, it was unthinkable that Libya's
rival governments would be willing to sit down and talk to one
another.

Libya's elected parliament is in charge of the government that is
internationally recognized, and headquartered in Tobruk, in eastern
Libya. The rival government is the General National Congress (GNC),
headed by the Islamist-backed Libya Dawn faction, headquartered in
Libya's capital city, Tripoli, in western Libya. Previous attempts by
the United Nations to broker an agreement for a unity government have
broken down because neither side wanted to talk to the other.

But in the last few weeks, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has taken control of Sirte, where there are
now tanks in the streets and black ISIS flags are waving in the city
center. There are fears that ISIS will take control of some oil
facilities and export the oil to make money. Furthermore, the recent
publicity stunt where 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians were beheaded,
with the results shown in a gruesome posted video, have changed the
mood of the leaders of the two governments.

Although an agreement on a unity government is considered unlikely, on
Saturday representatives of the two governments were at least willing
to sit down and talk to one another. The UN-sponsored meetings are
taking place in Rabat, the capital city of Morocco. After Saturday's
meeting, both groups will return to Libya for consultations, and then
return to Rabat on Wednesday to sign a deal, if any.

If an agreement on a unity government is reached, then the European
Union has said it is prepared to provide some military help in
fighting ISIS. On Saturday, UN envoy Bernardino Leon called on the
European Union to mount a naval blockade of Libya that would prevent
the flow of weapons to ISIS and the illegal flow of oil from Libya.
However, the EU has resisted calls in the past for another kind of
blockade of Libya, to stem the flow of thousands of migrants from
Libya to Italy. Al Arabiya and Deutsche Welle and AP

UAE may replace Saudis as Egypt's most important Arab ally

In recent years, under King Abdullah II, Saudi Arabia has been Egypt's
greatest Arab supporter and benefactor. But Abdullah died in January,
and his successor King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud has been tilting
away from Egypt towards Turkey, as we've been reporting in the last few days.

The issue that's inflamed differences among the Arab states,
especially since last summer's war between Gaza and Hamas, is the
status of the Muslim Brotherhood and it's offshoot Hamas. Last year,
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt considered the
Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist organization, while Qatar and
Turkey supported the Brotherhood. But King Salman has been openly
getting close to Turkey, potentially leaving Egypt out in the cold.
Turkey and Egypt have extremely hard and opposing positions on the
Muslim Brotherhood, and no one considers a rapprochement likely.

Egypt is the largest benefactor of UAE's aid, especially since the
July 2013 coup that ousted Egypt's democratically elected president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. In addition to
providing direct cash aid, the OPEC member has been building schools,
clinics, wheat silos and tens of thousands of homes, possibly creating
a million jobs in Egypt.

The relationship between UAE and Egypt may be deeper than just
supplying aid. According to leaked audio tapes obtain by Turkish
officials and released to the press, UAE was heavily involved in
bringing about the coup that ousted Morsi. The ouster was triggered
by huge anti-Morsi protests, and the leaked tapes indicate that the
protests were fomenting using funds provided by the UAE. A leaked
audio tape leaked last month contains a tirade by Egyptian official
Abbas Kamel describing the Gulf countries as 'half states' and
launching into a tirade of insults against the Qatari royal family.
AP and Telegraph (London) and Daily Sabah (Turkey) (2-Feb)

Boko Haram kills 58 in multiple bombings in Maiduguri, Nigeria

58 people were killed and hundreds injured on Saturday in five
coordinated suicide bombings in various parts of Maiduguri, the
largest city in northwest Nigeria, and the city that Boko Haram has
named as the intended capital city of its Islamic state.

The first bombing occurred when a female suicide bomber blew up her
vest in a crowded fish market at 11:20 am. An hour later, there was
another bombing at another crowded market. Shortly after 1:00 pm, a
third bombing occured at a busy bus terminal. The Nation Online (Nigeria)

Boko Haram declares allegiance to ISIS

Also on Saturday, Boko Haram issued an audio statement declaring its
allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). "We announce our allegiance to the Caliph ... and
will hear and obey in times of difficulty and prosperity, in hardship
and ease," said the statement. Officials are concerned that as ISIS
builds its international infrastructure, and gather resources and
military capabilities, Boko Haram and other linked terrorist groups
will be able to expand operations and control more quickly. Reuters

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan seek 'Sunni unity' versus Iran

Erdogan and Salman meet in Riyadh on March 2 (Reuters)

Iran's influence in the Mideast has been increasing rapidly in recent
weeks:

Iran is openly taking the lead fighting against the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in both Iraq
and Syria, with the support of Hezbollah. This puts an Iranian force
to the north of Saudi Arabia.

In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis are consolidating their control
of Sanaa, as Iran begins direct flight between Tehran and Sanaa, with
the threat to supply the Houthis with men and weapons. This puts an
Iranian-backed force to the south of Saudi Arabia.

It's widely believed in the Mideast that Barack Obama is going to
sign a deal with Iran that will permit the development of nuclear
weapons, something that's particularly threatening to Saudi
Arabia.

These fast-moving events are triggering fast-moving policy changes,
and sharpening the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide in the Mideast, as it
heads for a sectarian war.

Last week, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Saudi
Arabia's capital city Riyadh, and on Monday met with the new King of
Saudi Arabia, King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud. Pakistan’s Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif came to Riyadh later last week, also to meet
with King Salman. According to press reports, the main subjects of
discussion were plans to for Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, along
with other countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), to develop
strategic plans to seek "Sunni unity" to oppose Iran and, at the same
time, to fight ISIS.

The meetings will no doubt reaffirm previous agreements for Pakistan
to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable
missiles, if Iran develops a nuclear weapon.

An additional area of apparent agreement between Saudi Arabia and
Turkey is the need for a no-fly zone over Syria to prevent attacks by
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan has
repeatedly demanded this, in order to fight both ISIS and al-Assad,
while the Obama administration has firmly opposed it, wanting to fight
only ISIS. Al Monitor and The Nation/AFP (Pakistan) and Debka

Turkey's Erdogan shuts out Al-Sisi and Egypt from discussions

As we reported last week, reported last week, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi was also in
Riyadh last week visiting King Salman, but their paths didn't cross.

When Erdogan was asked whether he met with al-Sisi, he responded,
"You've got to be kidding." Erdogan is still furious at al-Sisi for
the 2013 coup that ousted Egypt's first popularly elected president,
Mohamed Morsi, along with his Muslim Brotherhood government. "After
the coup, I cannot justify sitting at the same table with him," he
added.

Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood has been a source of
tension in the region, negatively affecting Turkey's relations not
only with Egypt but also Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE). Salman's predecessor, King Abdullah II, who died in January,
was firmly opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, and sided with Egypt.
However, Salman appears to be moving away from Egypt and moving closer
to Turkey, which could mean a change in policy towards the
Brotherhood.

There is concern in Egypt of a cutoff of the billions of dollars
of aid that has been coming from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait
since the 2013 coup, if Salman turns against Egypt.

Long-time readers are aware that about ten years ago I predicted,
based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that China, Pakistan and
the Sunni Muslim countries would be the enemies of India, Russia,
Iran, Israel and the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world
war. This prediction was completely reasonable based on a
generational analysis that I've explained a number of times, but even
so, ten years ago, this prediction seemed fantastical. So it's been
quite startling, particularly in the last year, to see this prediction
come closer and closer to fruition, step by step.

However, the role of Egypt in this alignment has yet to be determined.
Recent trends indicate that Egypt will be aligned with the West rather
than the Sunni Gulf countries, but it's also possible that Egypt
itself will be split into warring factions. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Yeni Safak (Turkey)(trans) and Today's Zaman (Turkey)

After a year, experts still guessing about Malaysia Airlines 370

It was a year ago, on March 8, 2014, that Malaysia Airlines flight
370, on a trip from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, simply disappeared, and
has has not been found yet.

What I found most bizarre was the coverage of the disappearance by
people who had no clue what had happened. CNN was the most
spectacular about this, with 24x7 coverage. One "expert" would say it
had crashed into the South China Sea, another said it was hijacked and
had landed in the Mideast, and another said it was in the water just
south of India. It was one meaningless guess after another, filling
up hours of television. I turned it off pretty quickly, but not
before wondering why the experts didn't just say that the Martians had
gotten it, and leave it at that.

Still, the incident was a tragedy for Malaysia and for Malaysian
Airlines. The families of the passengers are still waiting for
some word, any word, about whether their loved ones had somehow
survived, or were confirmed dead. China's official
media criticized the Malaysian government's apparent incompetence
in handling the investigations, and there were demonstrations
outside the Malaysian embassy in Beijing.

And, of course, Malaysia Airlines suffered another disaster several
months later, when Russian-backed anti-government militias in eastern
Ukraine shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17, using a missile
supplied by Russia. Malay Mail Online and New York Daily News

Khamenei's illness may signal generational policy change in Iran

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei (Reuters)

Several Arab media reports indicate that Iran's 76 year old Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has been hospitalized, and is in
critical condition after undergoing surgery for an advanced form of
prostate cancer.

If the reports are true, and if Khamenei does not recover, then
his death could trigger very significant changes in Iran's
policies.

As I've been writing for almost ten years, Iran is a schizophrenic
country. The old geezers, the survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, are extreme hard-liners, trying to revive the widespread
revolutionary fervor that followed the Revolution. A generational
crisis war always unifies the entire population behind the leader,
with the intention of making sure that nothing so horrible should ever
happen again to their children or grandchildren. So they fall back
on the old out-of-date formulas that won them the revolution
-- particularly blaming everything on the United States.

The younger generations, who grew up after the war, think that the old
geezers are completely full of crap. This has been obvious since the
early 2000s, when Tehran college students started pro-Western
demonstrations. The young people like the West, like America, and
don't have anything against Israel. Furthermore, Khamenei has seemed
increasingly out of touch with reality in recent years. The result is
a chaotic political conflict between the generations that survived the
war versus the generations that grew up after the war. This is what
always happens during a generational Awakening era, like America in
the 1960s.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the "allies" would be the
West, along with India, Russia and Iran, while the "axis" would be
China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. The death of
Khamenei, when it occurs, would be a step in that direction. Jerusalem Post and Israel National News

Palestinians vote to end security agreement with Israel

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which governs the West
Bank, has voted on Thursday evening to end a security co-operation
agreement with Israel which dates back to the Oslo Accords of 1993.
The announcement calls for

"[The suspension of] all forms of security
coordination given Israel’s systematic and ongoing non-compliance
with its obligations under signed agreements, including its daily
military raids throughout the State of Palestine, attacks against
our civilians and properties. ...

Israel, the occupying power in Palestine, must assume all its
responsibilities in accordance with its obligations under
international law."

The final decision will be made by Palestinian president Mahmoud
Abbas.

As bad as the relationship has been between the Israelis and the
Palestinians in the West Bank, the security agreement has kept it from
becoming even worse. The security agreement required the Palestinians
for policing the West bank, so that Israeli police would not have to
do so. It's possible that the Palestinian security forces have
prevented some terrorist attacks on Israeli targets.

An end to the security agreement would be a major new crisis in the
West Bank. There would be daily confrontations between the
Palestinians and the Israeli security forces, with a good chance that
the confrontations would spiral into a war, just as they have in Gaza.

In January, Israel retaliated by cutting payments to Palestinians of fees and tax monies that Israel
collects on behalf of the Palestinians on a daily basis, something
like $100 million per month. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat
called the move an act of "piracy" and a "collective punishment"
against the Palestinian people:

The PLO has been unable to pay the salaries of government employees,
including the security forces, and so the new announcement is in
retaliation for the non-payment of these fees.

Every move by either side has to be interpreted as an attempt to
influence the Israeli elections that are coming on March 17. Israel's
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is withholding the funds in order to
increase his popularity with his right wing. The PLO announced the
end of the security agreement in the hope of get Netanyahu defeated.
Things should become clearer after March 17. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post and Al Bawaba (Palestine) and BBC

A major battle of World War I was the Battle of Gallipoli, which ran
from April 25, 1915, to January 9, 1916. Turkey has commemorated the
battle in the past on April 25.

According to Armenia, Turkey (the Ottoman Empire) committed a genocide
against Armenians, and the genocide began on April 24, 1915, when the
Young Turks government began deporting Armenians. Turkey denies that
there was a genocide. Armenia had scheduled a centennial
commemoration of the start of the deportations for next month on April
24.

Turkey responded last month by rescheduling its commemoration of the
Gallipoli campaign to April 24. Both countries have invited
dozens of international country leaders to their respective
commemorations, forcing every government to make a choice.

So far, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Britain's Prime
Minister David Cameron have already accepted Turkey's invitation;
meanwhile France's President François Hollande plans to attend the
events in Armenia.

In this context, Armenia is canceling an American-mediated 2009
agreement, the "Zurich Protocols," which would re-establish diplomatic
relations between the two countries, and re-open their mutual borders.
The agreement was signed in 2009, but neither country has ratified,
and now Armenia is canceling it once and for all.

A major reason why the Zurich Protocols were never ratified was
opposition by Azerbaijan. From 1988 to 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan
fought a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave of Azerbaijan, which
has a large Armenian population. Armenia won the war, and gained
control of about 15% of Azerbaijani territory, creating hundreds of
thousands of Azerbaijani refugees. That was the time when Azerbaijan
and Turkey closed their borders with Armenia and imposed a blockade,
closing off Armenia's trade routes to Europe and Asia. Today's Zaman and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Jamestown and News (Azerbaijan)

China continues its double-digit military spending increases

China announced on Wednesday that military spending will grow by 10.1%
in 2015. With the country's slowing economic growth, this was lower
than last year's growth rate of 12.2%, but it still comes after years
of very rapid military growth through double-digit increases. The
increases are thought likely to go towards increasing naval power with
anti-submarine ships and aircraft carriers, to further China's
strategy of using military power to annex territories in the East and
South China Seas that have historically belonged to other countries.

According to China's premier Li Keqiang:

"We will comprehensively strengthen modern logistics,
step up national defense research and development of new- and
high-technology weapons and equipment, and develop defense-related
science and technology industries."

Although America's military budget has been declining, China's
aggressive military growth has spurred military budget increases in
many countries in the region, with significant increases
in India, Vietnam and Japan.

But China has been rapidly building its military for years with a
variety of weapons and missile systems that have no other purpose than
to preemptively strike American aircraft carriers, American military
bases, and American cities. Generational Dynamics predicts that China
is preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack
on the United States. AP
and Reuters

Londoner takes amazing picture of weasel on flying woodpecker's back

Green woodpecker flying with brown weasel hitchhiking (Martin Le-May)

An amateur photographer, Martin Le-May, out for a stroll with his wife
on Sunday, had an amazing stroke of luck when he photographed a tiny
brown weasel on the back of a flying green woodpecker. Apparently,
the weasel had pounced on the woodpecker hoping for a meal, but the
woodpecker took flight.

Unlike many stories that I tell, this one had a happy ending. The
bird landed 20 meters in front of the photographer, and after a tumble
in the grass, the weasel ran off. Daily Mail (London)

Failure of Austrian bank portends major new round of euro crisis

Europeans are aware, though Americans are not, that when Austria's
Credit-Anstalt bank of Austria collapsed on May 11, 1931, the collapse
triggered mass panic and bank failures throughout central Europe, and
a worldwide banking crisis.

This isn't nearly as bad as the 1931 incident, but it's raising a lot
of concerns. The government of Austria announced over the weekend
that it was shutting down the Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank, rather than
spending an additional 7.6 billion euros of taxpayer money to bail it
out. 5.5 billion euros of taxpayer money has already been paid to the
bank up to this point, and a decision was made to stop the bleeding.

Hypo is not an ordinary bank. It's a so-called "bad bank" that was
set up to unwind bad debts that came out of the financial crisis in
2008. It has no depositors, so depositors will not lose any money.
However, many bondholders will lose a great deal, possibly leading to
a chain reaction of further bankruptcies.

One billion euros of the bank's debt is guaranteed by Austria's
federal government, and that will supposedly be honored. The province
of Carinthia, whose borrowing before 2008 was a large part of the
cause of the original failure, has guaranteed 10.2 billion euros of
debt, and it's doubtful how much of that will be honored. Finally,
there's 9.8 billion euros of unsecured debt that's essentially junk.
Of that 9.8 billion, almost one billion is due in March, so this
crisis will spiral fairly quickly.

The phrase that's being used is "bail-in." That is, the Austrian
government will no longer bail out the bank, and so all the investors
will be "bailed in" to cover the losses. Most of the losses will be
in funds managed by Pacific Investment Management Co., Deutsche Bank
AG and UBS AG. It is not known who the end investors are, but it's
thought that there will be repercussions, and possible further
bankruptcies.

Depositors were not "bailed in" by this event, because the bank has no
depositors. However, the action that the Austrian government took was
under a regulation called the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive
(BRRD), which allows a government to force both investors AND
depositors to lose their money.

Readers may recall that in March 2013, Cyprus was saved from
bankruptcy by an EU bailout, on condition that 60% of the savings
accounts of large depositors (mostly Russian oligarchs) be confiscated. One of the outcomes of
the Cyprus crisis was implementation of the BRRD directive, which
could permit ANY depositor's money to be confiscated, under the right
circumstances.

I've repeatedly said that there is no solution to Greece's financial
crisis -- not that no solution has been found, but that no solution
even exists. No solution existed for Austria's financial crisis
either, and so investors are going to lose billions of euros of their
money, risking chain reaction bankruptcies. Sooner or later,
something like that will have to happen with Greece as well, and it's
good to remember that the current "compromise agreement" between
Europe and Greece expires in July, with no hope of a suitable
resolution at that time. Telegraph (London) and Forbes and Bloomberg

Iran Revolutionary Guards commander leads Iraq's attack on Tikrit

Ghasem Soleimani, a top general in Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps (IRGC), along with dozens of Iranian military advisers, is
overseeing the Iraqi army's attack on Tikrit, with the goal of
recapturing it from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).

The situation is potentially explosive, because you have Shia militias
fighting with Sunni tribes and militias over Tikrit, which was the
hometown of Sunni leader Saddam Hussein.

Glaringly absent from the operation is participation by US forces,
particularly US war planes, which have been striking ISIS targets
since last summer. According to the Pentagon, the Iraqis never made
any request for US air support.

News reports indicate that Iraqi forces are bogged down on the
outskirts of Tikrit, unable to make much headway. ISIS is striking
back with sniper gunfire and suicide bombings on Iraqi checkpoints to
slow down any advance on the city. If the Iraq army does enter the
city, then it will be street by street fighting by the Iranian-led
Shia militias against the Sunni tribes and militias. Indeed, many
Sunni citizens of Iraq have welcomed the invading ISIS militias as a
better alternative to the Shia-led government in Baghdad. AP and Reuters

Why did ISIS release 19 Assyrian Christian hostages?

An Assyrian woman in church prays for Christians abducted by ISIS (Reuters)

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) on
Sunday released 19 Assyrian Christians, 17 men and two women, among
over 200 that were abducted last month. in the recent raid, ISIS
overran more than a dozen villages inhabited by the ancient Christian
minority.

Everyone is wondering why? Some suggested reasons being reported are:

The 19 Christians paid the tax that ISIS imposes on
non-Muslims, so they were freed. If that's the reason, one wonders
why dozens more didn't pay the tax in order to get freed.

All of the released hostages were 50 years of age or older,
implying that it's ISIS policy only to slit the throats of younger
people.

The ISIS guys are fair and honest interpreters of Sharia law, and
they conducted a transparent process that free the 19 hostages.

The Syrian Sunni Tribal leaders care deeply about the Assyrian
Christians, with whom they've lived for centuries, and so they
negotiated the freedom of the 19 refugees. Presumably, this means
that they don't care deeply for the other 200 abductees.

The ISIS leaders are deeply religious, and released the 19 on
humanitarian grounds.

My personal view is generally quite different from any of these
explanations.

First off, I don't view ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as any sort
of religious person. In the Christian world, serial killers like
Jeffrey Dahmer, Charles Manson, John Wayne Gacy, and many others, all
claimed to be deeply religious Christians, and could even quote the
Bible on cue. But nobody considered these men to any sort of
Christian. Like Dahmer, Manson and Gacy, al-Baghdadi is simply a
cheap thug, with charismatic skills in using religion to lead people
to their deaths.

ISIS has killed a few hundred Christians, but has killed tens of
thousands of Muslims. Al-Baghdadi and other ISIS leaders use a
two-step process to kill other Muslims. First, they practice "takfir"
-- they declare the people to be apostates for some trivial reason,
then they kill them.

There is no way that Islam permits one Muslim to simply declare a
village of people to be apostates for some trivial reason, and to kill
them. That would give every Muslim a free pass to kill anyone else.
A woman could declare that her husband's hair is uneven, and kill him.

Here's something I found on a Muslim web site:

According to a conversation recorded by a contemporary, Mohammed was
once talking to an Ansar man:

Suddenly the Holy Prophet said loudly [about someone]:
“Does he not bear witness that there is no god but Allah?”

The Ansari said: “Yes indeed, O Messenger of Allah, but his
testimony cannot be trusted.”

The Holy Prophet said: “Does he not accept that Muhammad is the
Messenger of Allah?”

He again replied: “Yes, he professes it but his profession cannot
be trusted.”

The Holy Prophet said: “Does he not pray?”

He again said: “Yes he does, but his prayer cannot be trusted.”

The Holy Prophet said: “God has forbidden me to kill such
people.”

So al-Baghdadi is no religious scholar, or any kind of religious
person. He's a cheap murdering thug who killed tens of thousands of
Muslims and who, according to Islam, will burn in hell.

So why did ISIS release the 19 Assyrians? Here's my theory:

ISIS leaders are cheap, murdering thugs who murder people for power
and money. They've had spectacular successes in publicity stunts
posting a few videos of killing a few Christians, because those videos
being in recruits and money. But as beheading Christians becomes more
commonplace, the publicity stunts become less effective. We've
already seen a lot less international outrage of the Assyrian
abductions than some previous abductions. One news story writes:
"Igniting a live man in a cage; severing the heads of dozens;
kidnapping, raping and selling women and children -- ISIS' shocking
maltreatment of its captives has become regrettably predictable."

So, in my view, releasing the 19 Assyrians was just a new publicity
stunt to get more attention. Like Jonathan Gruber bragging about the
stupidity of the American people, I can imagine Abu Omar al-Baghdadi
saying the following: "These Western reporters are idiots. Let's
release 19 Assyrians to give them a 'glimmer of hope,' and then when
we slit the throats of the other 200 Assyrians, we'll get a lot more
publicity." Reuters and Christian Times and CNN and Muslim.org

Iran aids Iraq's army in attack to recapture Tikrit from ISIS

American officials were caught by surprise on Monday when Iraq
announced that an invasion of the city of Tikrit had begun, with the
objective of retaking it from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). In particular, no U.S. air support
will be provided, since none was requested. Instead, some Iranian
forces are on the ground helping the Iraqis, though it's not known how
many. Iraqi fighter jets will conduct air strikes.

The Iraqi security forces leading the invasion of Tikrit number around
30,000, including a mix of Shia militias, Sunni tribes, Kurdish
Peshmerga fighters, and Iranian advisors. There are already sectarian
tensions between Sunnis and Shias throughout the Mideast, and Iraq's
last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, which
will still be firmly in everyone's memory. It's feared that this
highly combustible mix of fighters will reignite a wider conflict.
Employing Shia militias to attack Sunnis in ISIS is almost certain
to inflame the conflict.

The city of Tikrit is symbolic for being the birthplace of Saddam
Hussein. US forces found the former president hiding in southern
Tikrit eight months after the US-led invasion in 2003. Foreign Policy and BBC

Now, almost 1-1/2 years later, the web site still doesn't work.
Developers hired by the Administration have focused on making the user
interface pretty, able to collect data, and display basic information
screens. Once the web site gathers the data, it simply sends the data
along as a kind of e-mail message to the appropriate insurance
company.

At that point, the insurance company has to go through expensive
manual procedures to register the patient. There are constant news
reports of patients who never got registered, or who were incorrectly
registered, or whose insurance was dropped when there was a change,
such as a marriage or a baby. There are reports of massive errors in
applying subsidies. These are typical of the kinds of errors
routinely made in manual systems in pre-computer days.

So it's been about 5 years, almost $1 billion in development costs,
and all we have is a simple shell program running as a web site,
designed to look pretty to avoid embarrassment to the Obama
administration, but with nothing underneath.

This is a very simple web application. I could have implemented it as
a one-man project in about a year. With a small team of programmers
and testers, this could have been implemented in 4-6 months for a cost
of a few million dollars.

So start with a few million dollars, factor in huge amounts of
government bloating, factor in extortion by labor unions, factor
in sheer government stupidity and inefficiency, and you only
come to about $50 million dollars or so.

So where the hell did that $1 billion go? Until I get an explanation
of how a $50 million project cost $1 billion, then I have to assume
that Administration is conducting massive government fraud here,
padding the bank accounts of its cronies with tens of millions of
dollars each. Why aren't the Republicans in Congress investigating?
Most likely answer: The Republicans and their cronies are in on the
gravy train. Everyone makes astronomical amounts of money, and the
taxpayers get screwed.

After last year's disaster, a computer contracting firm, Accenture
Federal Services, was issued a $91.1 million no-bid contract to fix
the web site. So now, after spending another $91.1, we still have
nothing more than this shell web site that I could have written by
myself in a year, and all it does is collect information and e-mail it
to insurance companies.

The administration is bragging that 11 million people have signed up
to Obamacare. That's because the administration is paying them huge
sums of money to sign up. In 2014, 87% of federal Obamacare enrollees
got subsidies. For the silver plan, out of an annual $4,140 premium,
the subsidy amounts to $3,132, leaving the patient only $828 to pay
out of the $4,140. So the reason that a lot of people have signed up
is that they're getting huge amounts of money from the administration
to sign up.

And even with that, a typical deductible is $5,000-15,000, which means
that most of these insured are effectively uninsured, since they'll
have to pay all their own medical expenses anyway. And of the 11
million that signed up, 89% of the new enrollees last year were for
Medicaid, which provides almost no effective coverage at all. So
there may be more "effectively uninsured" people today than there were
uninsured people in the past.

So this is what Obamacare amounts to. Pay astronomical amounts of
money to developers to create Healthcare.gov, which is a piece of
crap. And then pay astronomical amounts to individual people to sign
up. And if millions more are effectively uninsured because of huge
deductibles and Medicaid, then who cares? Certainly no the
administration.

None of this would have happened before Generation-X came into power
in the late 1990s. Today, with Generation-X in charge, criminal fraud
is so entrenched in Washington, on Wall Street, and in our culture
that no one has any shame, and no one cares about billions and
billions of dollars being thrown away on Obamacare, which has
accomplished nothing except to boost Barack Obama's ego. Politico and Free Beacon

Anthem health insurance data breach puts even non-customers at risk

The news just keeps getting worse about the massive data breach at
Anthem Inc., where 80 million current and former customers had their
personal information compromised, including birthdates, addresses, and
social security numbers. Any current or former customer of the
following health plans is potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross,
Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of
Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore,
Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.

As we wrote last month, this
includes millions of children of all ages. Birthdates and social
security numbers never change, and hackers can dip into this treasure
trove of data for years to create an unending flow of identity theft
victims.

It now turns out that even 8.8 million non-customer of Anthem could be
victims of the data hack, and future victims of identity theft. The
reason is that Anthem is part of a national network of independently
run Blue Cross Blue Shield plans through which BCBS customers can
receive medical services when they are in an area where BCBS is
operated by a different company, and so any customer of any BCBS
insurance plan is potentially a victim. Reuters

Al-Sisi and Erdogan miss in Riyadh, signaling stormy times ahead

As we reported yesterday, Egypt's
president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan are both visiting Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week, to visit
with the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud.

Speculation was buzzing that bitter enemies al-Sisi and Erdogan might
meet one another, and Salman would mediate some kind of rapprochement
between the two. Well, al-Sisi completed his visit on Sunday, and
Erdogan is going to meet with Salman on Monday.

So instead of leading to a new Sunni Muslim world of harmony, the
entire incident is very publicly exposing just how bitter the split is
between Egypt and Turkey. Turkey and Egypt were friends when Mohamed
Morsi was president of Egypt, and his Muslim Brotherhood was in
charge, but now the presidents of Egypt and Turkey cannot stand to be
in the same room with each other.

Egypt will be watching the meeting between Salman and Erdogan very
nervously. Salman's predecessor, King Abdullah, had very strong
policies against the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, causing a bitter
realignment of Egypt and Saudi Arabia on the anti-MB side, versus
Qatar and Turkey on the pro-MB side. So Egypt is concerned that
Salman will reverse Abdullah's policy on MB, which would almost
completely isolate Egypt -- though Israel would still be an ally.

Things may have gotten a lot worse over the weekend. As we reported yesterday, Egypt has now
declared Hamas to be a terrorist organization. This is turning out to
be more than just a simple act of adding Hamas to a list. It strikes
at the very heart of giving lip service to Arab unity in the
resistance against Israel, since now Israel's view of Hamas has been
confirmed by Egypt.

The BBC has been running stories about a new building up of rockets,
missiles and tunnels in Gaza, following last summer's Gaza war
with Israel. Hamas was completely humiliated by that war since
they were so thoroughly defeated by Israel, but now they're
applying "lessons learned" to create a network of tunnels and
rockets that they hope will draw a lot more Israeli blood.

It was last summer's Gaza war that exploded the fracture in the
Arab world over the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. If, as the
BBC reports suggest, Hamas is planning another war in the fairly
near future, then the situation may be explosive.
Middle East Eye and Saudi Gazette

Various unconfirmed reports are emerging indicating that there may
be joint international action planned in Libya as early as next
week.

Egypt is already conduction air strikes against ISIS-linked targets in
Derna, close to where Egyptian Coptics were massacred recently, as
displayed in a gruesome video. Debka reports that Egypt's president
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is planning further action in Libya, including
more air strikes and possible ground troops, within a few days.
According to the report, Egyptian commando and marine forces are
preparing for sea landings to seize Derna and destroy the terrorist
elements there. If this attack is actually launched, it will be the
first time in modern times that an Arab country has sent ground forces
into another Arab country.

Al-Jazeera television reports that the Italian navy is getting ready
to carry off sophisticated military drills off the coast of Libya, as
early as Monday. Although Italy claims that it's a regular exercise,
there are many more vessels taking part in this year's exercise than
have in the past, which Italy explains by saying that they're testing
out sophisticated new technologies.

There are several reasons why Italy is pursuing this show of force:

Italy considers the flood of migrants from Libya into Italy to
be an existential threat to Italy itself, because there may be
ISIS-trained terrorists smuggled in, along with the other migrants.
Italy may be planning some kind of military action in Libya in
conjunction with Egypt's air strikes and other operations.

The GreenStream pipeline is a gas pipeline running underneath the
Mediterranan Sea from Libya to Sicily. The pipeline is vital to
economic relations between Italy and Libya. In recent months, there
have been attacks by gunmen on oil installations in Libya, forcing
some ports to shut down. The new show of naval force may be related
to threats of attack or sabotage on the pipeline.

For over a year, Italy ran a search and rescue program called
"Mare Nostrum" ("Our Sea") that saved the lives of thousands of
migrants attempting to travel from Libya to Italy. This program
required Italian naval vessels near the Libyan coast. In November,
the program ended and an EU program called Triton replaced it, but
Triton restricts its operations to only 30 miles off the Italian
coast. Triton has been considered unsatisfactory because many more
migrants are drowning. Italy's new show of naval force may be an
attempt to restore a portion of the Mare Nostrum program.

Related to the last point, on Saturday there were large
demonstrations in Rome by Italy's anti-immigrant Northern League party
for the government to do more to keep immigrants out. The naval show
of force may help to mollify the protestors.

Some reports indicate that Russia has indicated a willingness
to participate in a naval blockade of Libya to prevent
arm supplies from leaving Libya for other countries. Russia
could play a role in this because it already has a naval
fleet in the Mediterranean.

These are all unconfirmed reports of possible military action in Libya
by Egypt, Italy and Russia. There are no reports of possible
participation by Nato or the United States. Debka and Cairo Post

Egypt court declares Hamas to be a terrorist organization

Egypt on Saturday became the first Arab country to name Hamas as a
terrorist organization. The U.S. and the European Union have named
Hamas as a terror group. An EU court took Hamas off the list in
December 2014, ruling that the designation was not based on solid
legal evidence, but the EU is appealing the court's decision.

According to a decision on Saturday from the Cairo Court for Urgent
Matters:

"It has been proven without any doubt that the
movement has committed acts of sabotage, assassinations and the
killing of innocent civilians and members of the armed forces and
police in Egypt.

It has been also ascertained with documents that [Hamas] has
carried out bombings that have taken lives and destroyed
institutions and targeted civilians and the armed forces
personnel. It has also been ascertained that this movement works
for the interests of the terrorist Brotherhood organization [which
Egypt has already declared to be a terrorist
organization]."

About a month ago, the same court declared Hamas's military wing,
Al-Qassam Brigades, to be a terrorist organization. Saturday's ruling
makes the political wing a terrorist organization as well.

A Hamas spokesman denied all the charges and said that the ruling
was "dangerous":

"History has recorded Egypt’s support to national
liberty movements in the Arab world and Africa, particularly in
Palestine. ... This ruling serves the Israeli occupation. It's a
politicized decision that constitutes the beginning of Egypt
evading its role toward the Palestinian cause. This is a coup
against history and an Egyptian abuse of the Palestinian cause and
resistance, which fights on behalf of the Arab nation. We call on
Egypt to reconsider this dangerous decision."

Egypt and Turkey may try to create a 'Sunni front' with Saudi Arabia

By coincidence or by planning, the presidents of both Egypt and Turkey
will be in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week. Egypt's Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan will both be visiting King
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, the new king of Saudi Arabia, who has
replaced King Abdullah II, who died last month.

It's not known whether Erdogan will ever be in the same room as
al-Sisi. The two have been bitter enemies ever since a coup by
al-Sisi ousted Egypt's elected president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood government in 2013, and later declared MB to be a
terrorist organization. Erdogan's own political party, the AKP, is an
Islamist party like the Muslim Brotherhood, and they had good
relations while Morsi was in power.

There has been some speculation that King Salman is going to
completely reverse King Abdullah's policy on the Muslim Brotherhood.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) had branded MB as a
terrorist organization, but some are wondering if Salman is going to
shift from that policy. The Saudi foreign minister recently said that
his government has "no problem with the Muslim Brotherhood; our
problem is with a small group affiliated to the organization,"
suggesting that shift is in the works.

Other problems make an Egypt-Turkey rapprochement unlikely:
Erdogan vitriolicly hates Israel and supports Hamas. Al-Sisi
vitriolicly hates Hamas and works closely with Israel on military
matters, especially in North Sinai. So really, it doesn't seem
likely that any meeting, if one even occurs, will be pleasant.

If King Salman is able to pull off a miracle and mediate a new
relationship between Egypt and Turkey, then it would appear to be the
establishment of a new "Sunni front" in the Mideast, to oppose Iran,
Hezbollah and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Al Arabiya and Kurdistan and Arab Times

China's South China Sea building spree threatens neighbors

China is on a building spree, conducting "large scale" land
reclamation and construction in the Spratly Islands in the South China
Sea. Since last year, China has already built a new artificial
island, more than 18 acres in size, whose main building appears to
have an anti-aircraft tower.

Satellite photographs have shown that Chinese reclamation work is
advanced on six reefs in the Spratly archipelago. Workers are
building ports and fuel storage depots as well as possibly two
airstrips as China works to project its military power into Southeast
Asia. China’s creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea
is happening so fast that Beijing will be able to extend the range of
its navy, air force, coastguard and fishing fleets before long,
according to analysts.

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose. Instead, China is
becoming increasingly belligerent militarily, annexing other nations'
territories, and militarizing the entire sea.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said on Thursday at a
Senate hearing that China is making an "aggressive" military effort to
exert sovereignty in the South China Sea. However, he said that China
was still in a construction phase so it was unclear what weaponry or
forces it might deploy on these man-made islands. Guardian (London) and Reuters and Foreign Policy and Reuters (2/20)

US Navy says that China now has more attack submarines than US

China is building some "fairly amazing submarines" and now has more
diesel- and nuclear-powered vessels than the United States, according
to Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy at a Senate hearing on Wednesday. "We
know they are out experimenting and looking at operating and clearly
want to be in this world of advanced submarines," he said. Mulloy
said the quality of China's submarines was lower than those built by
the United States, but the size of its undersea fleet had now
surpassed that of the U.S. fleet.

China has been building numerous missile systems and other weaponry
with no other purpose than to attack American cities, military bases,
and aircraft carriers. Generational Dynamics predicts that China is
preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack on
the United States. In the generational crisis war to follow, there is
no guarantee that the United States will survive. Reuters and Washington Times

Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden

Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Yemen is leaving the capital city Sanaa
and moving to the southern city of Aden. Other Arab countries in the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to follow suit.

Shia Iran-backed ethnic Houthis from northern Yemen last October
invaded and occupied Sanaa. The constitutional president Abd-Rabbu
Mansour Hadi last month first resigned then escaped the Houthis and fled to Aden, where he has a power
base among Sunni tribes.

Now Hadi is essentially setting up Aden as a second capital, splitting
the country into North and South Yemen. North and South Yemen
were separate countries that were united in 1990, but it now
appears that they're close to splitting into two countries again.

For the West, the biggest fear is that all this chaos will give rise
to a stronger Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is
headquartered in Yemen. With regard to this point, there are some
analysts saying that AQAP will not gain strength, because both Hadi
and the Houthis oppose AQAP. However, there are now three major
centers of power in Yemen -- the Houthis, Hadi in Aden, and AQAP --
and the possibility of a new civil war cannot be discounted.

Yemen's banks deteriorate as the economy collapses

Fears of economic collapse are causing Yemen citizens to withdraw
their US dollar savings from banks and keep the dollars at home.
Yemen is facing economic collapse for several reasons:

The political chaos of the country having two capitals after
the Houthi seizure of Sanaa is preventing many businesses from
operating.

The fighting has reduced oil exports, Yemen's main source of
dollars. At the same time the price of oil has been falling, so even
less money is coming in.

Saudi Arabia used to provide aid to the Sunni-led government of
Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, but that aid was cut off when the new Shia-led
Houthi government took over.

It's possible that the Sanaa government will soon be unable to pay
salaries within a few weeks. The economic collapse represents a
recruiting opportunity for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Widespread protests and riots, as well as terrorist acts by AQAP, are
expected to increase. Bloomberg

S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.53 on February 20 (WSJ)

The US Labor Department said on Thursday that its consumer price index
(CPI) fell 0.7% in January, after falling the previous two months as
well. In the 12 months through January, the CPI fell 0.1% over the
year. The economy continues its deflationary spiral that is predicted
by Generational Dynamics.

Europe has clearly been in a deflationary spiral for a couple
of years, with January's inflation rate at -0.6%. On Thursday,
Germany announced that it will sell five-year bonds at
negative yields (interest rates) for the first time ever. That means
that if you have a lot of money and you want to put it into the
bank for safety, then you have to pay the bank money to keep it.

Five-year bonds from four other eurozone countries -- Netherlands,
Austria, Sweden and Finland -- also have negative yields.

The negative interest rates are forcing investors to look for other
places to invest, and one of those places is Wall Street, which is
part of the reason for the surge in stock prices.

The result is that the Wall Street stock market bubble is exploding to
new highs. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (February 20) is still at an
astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average
of 14. It's a large jump from last month, and it's a fresh high in
recent years. This indicates that the stock market is in a huge
bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts
that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where
it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial
Average of 3000 or lower. It's best to keep money in cash, even in
the face of mild deflation, because you stand to lose a great deal of
money if/when the stock market crashes. Reuters and Investment Week and Reuters

Greece's PM Tsipras faces opposition from EU bailout deal

Alexis Tsipras

During the January election campaign in Greece, radical far-left
candidate Alexis Tsipras promised that he would stand up to the
Europeans: He would get half the Greek debt written off, and "We will
not govern with anybody who follows the policies of Mrs Merkel,"
referring to Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. Voters
enthusiastically elected him, and Prime Minister Tsipras has had
almost 80% public support in the polls.

The jury is out whether his public support will wane once it sinks in
with the public that none of the Greek debt was written off, and that,
except for a few minor adjustments, the austerity programs will
continue as before -- almost a complete cave-in to the demands of
Angela Merkel.

Tsipras really had no choice. Money was pouring out of Greece's banks
at the rate of billions of dollars per week, and deposited in foreign
banks in case Greece's banks collapsed. Greece desperately needed the
European Central Bank (ECB) to continue supplying liquidity to the
Greek Banks, and that meant that Tsipras had to agree to Merkel's
terms before the coming weekend, when the old bailout program
officially ends.

News reports indicate that Tsipras spend 10 hours on Wednesday meeting
with officials in his own left-wing Syriza party, to sell them on the
agreement and convince them not to pull his support. Presumably the
pragmatists will support him, and the left-wing hardliners will not.

As I've said repeatedly, no solution exists for the Greek financial
crisis, and the longer it's prolonged, the worse it gets. The new
bailout agreement makes the problem worse because Greece's financial
deficit will increase a bit, because of the adjustments that were made
to the original plan.

However, last week's agreement apparently kicked the can down the road
four months, until July, when the crisis will be worse than it was
last week. Kathimerini and BBC and Kathimerini

Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean

Cyprus on Wednesday signed a military deal with Russia giving Russian
military ships access to Cyprus's ports on in the Mediterranean Sea.

Russia has been a silent third partner in the financial crisis
negotiations between Europe and Greece, and also in last year's
financial crisis negotiations between Europe and Cyprus, because
Russia sees them as an opportunity to go around Brussels and gain a
foothold in Europe. Russia has offered financial aid to both Cyprus
and Greece. Russia has now signed this military agreement with
Cyprus, and has also offered to expand military-technical
collaboration with Greece, if the latter requests it.

Some analysts doubt that anything meaningful will come from Russia's
military agreement with Cyprus. According to one Russian analyst, "To
speak of a Russian military presence in Cyprus, on the territory of an
EU state, is beyond strange. It just makes no sense. I am certain the
president of Cyprus will retract his statement, which is being used as
a tool to put pressure on the EU, in my opinion." Reuters and Kathimerini and Moscow Times and Jamestown

ISIS kidnaps around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria

Photo released by ISIS on Tuesday showing a terrorist firing anti-aircraft weapons

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
abducted around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria, in a pre-dawn raid as
part of a larger offensive on Assyrian villages in the area. ISIS
took over several villages in the offensive. The Assyrian villages
were supposed to be under the protection of the Kurdish People’s
Protection Unit (YPG), but the pre-dawn attack apparently took
everyone by surprise.

It's not known what ISIS's intentions are with the Assyrians. One
possibility is that ISIS will post a gruesome video showing them being
beheaded, as happened with the Egyptian Coptic Christians who were
abducted from Sirte, Libya. Another possibility is that they'll be
used as leverage to obtain the release of jailed ISIS terrorists.

Either way, the abduction of scores of Christians is certain to
inflame passions in the West, and may soon lead to increased anti-ISIS
military action from the US or Nato. Drawing the West into the
conflict in Syria and Iraq is thought to be part of the strategy of
ISIS. ARA News (Syria) and Long War Journal and CNN

John Kerry says that Russia has repeatedly lied to his face

Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that Russian officials have
repeatedly lied to him. He was referencing Russia's president
Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. Kerry said:

"Russia is engaged in a rather remarkable period of
the most overt and extensive propaganda exercise that I've seen
since the very height of the Cold War. And they have been
persisting in their misrepresentations - lies - whatever you want
to call them about their activities there to my face, to the face
of others on many different occasions."

Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics will not be the least bit
surprised that Putin and Lavrov have lied constantly, but they, like
me, might be excused for wondering what took Kerry so long to point it
out.

"Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its
activities to only the humanitarian acts allowed by the UN
resolution, and then veto any attempt to expand the resolution in
the Security Council, in order to guarantee a continued stalemate
in Libya.

This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectively
control future activities of Nato, since only activities approved
by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be
permitted.

Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied down
in wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These wars
increase Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories,
which is Russia's top priority, according to the article.
Furthermore, if Libya's oil exports are stopped, then Russia's own
oil exports become more valuable."

It's now four years later, and it's almost unbelievable how successful
this policy has been. Russia has become an international criminal
organization, invading Ukraine, annexing Ukrainian territory,
supplying weapons to Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar
al-Assad. Putin had been unhappy how the Libya military action, but
his policies have had even worse outcomes, provoking war in Ukraine,
and pursuing a Syria policy that is the direct cause of the creation
of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

The latest wrinkle is that Putin is now saying that the recent Minsk
agreement on Ukraine has been approved by the Security Council, and so
has the force of international law. This is laughable because Russia
violated the Minsk agreement before the ink was dry, continuing the
invasion of Ukraine with Russian troops and weapons. Nonetheless,
Putin and Lavrov will continue to demand that the West abide by the
Minsk agreement, while Russia continues as a criminal organization,
with impunity. CBS News and Global Research and Deutsche Welle

Sectarian violence surging all across Pakistan

Although terrorist violence by Sunni groups linked to the Pakistani
Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) target both Sunnis and Shias, the
amount of sectarian violence targeting Shias in Pakistan has been
trending upward for years and is now increasing substantially.
TTP-linked groups that I've reported on frequently that attack Shia
targets are Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ) and Jundullah.

There have been four major attacks on Shia targets in 2015 alone,
including the 30-Jan attack on a Shia mosque in a city just north of
Karachi, killing 56 people, as we reported.

There are several factors that make the current round of sectarian
attacks much more lethal and more difficult to combat. They used to
be restricted to just a few small regions of the country, but now
they're spread across the entire country, and using larger bombs that
result in more deaths.

The port city of Karachi used to be used by TTP linked groups only for
financing and logistics. But as the use of violence increased, TTP
terrorists attacked Shiite neighborhoods and processions with mass
casualty attacks.

But the primary difference is the relationship between the terrorist
groups and Pakistan's government. It was no secret that in the
1980s-90s, the sectarian groups were supported by the government,
depended on the government for funding, and were therefore controlled
by the government. They were largely coordinated with Saudi Arabia in
opposition to Iran and India.

But now, terrorist groups are well endowed, with unregulated funding
and weapons pouring in primarily from the Gulf region, including the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Thus, the Pakistan government no longer has any control over these
groups, even when these groups attack the government itself.

According to a Pakistan analyst Arif Rafiq, the sectarian conflict in
Pakistan is not purely Sunni versus Shia. This is not surprising,
given that the country's president from 2008-13 was a prominent Shia
leader, Asif Ali Zardari. According to Rafiq, the deadliest sectarian
attacks come from a Sunni sub-sect known as the Deobandis, comprising
about 20% of the population. The other two major Sunni sub-sects, the
Salafis and Barelvis, do not target Shias, and the Barelvis cooperate
with the Shias on political issues.

On January 1, 2015, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, the head of Pakistan's
Awami National Party (ANP) said that Punjab was a "training center for
terrorists and their masterminds. ... Terrorism could not be
eliminated from the country until an operation began against terrorist
organizations in Punjab." He added, "there should be no distinction
between good Taliban and bad Taliban and state institutions should
take across-the-board action against terrorists."

As Pakistan hurtles into chaos, it's unlikely that any of these steps
are going to be taken. As I've been describing for months, there is a
large and growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North
Africa and South Asia, of which the sectarian war in Pakistan plays a
major part. And with respect to Pakistan and India, it's worth
pointing out, as I have in the past, that for centuries, Shia Muslims
and Hindus have been allied in wars against Sunni Muslims. The Hindu and Deutsche Welle and South Asia Terrorism Portal

Greece misses deadline for submitting reforms list

Monday evening was the deadline that Greece committed to last week to
submit its list of reforms to the Eurogroup of eurozone finance
ministers to explain how it's going to meet the existing terms of its
bailout agreement. Greece has pretty much caved in on every negotiating point, and must now prove
explain how it will proceed.

However, Greece missed the Monday evening deadline for providing
the list, and says now that it will provide the list on
Tuesday morning.

The list of reforms will have to address a number of economic issues,
including the bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and
corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous
pension and minimum wage policies.

Once they receive the list, the Eurogroup will have three possible
responses: Total acceptance, total rejection, or a call for further
negotiations. Kathimerini

Deadly MERS virus surging early in Saudi Arabia

Pictogram: MERS health advisory (CDC)

World health officials are concerned about a new outbreak of MERS-CoV
(the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) in Saudi Arabia
that's killed 17 people in the last 11 days, including 6 on one day on
Thursday of last week. Although the outbreak is still small,
officials are concerned because it's surging much earlier this year
than last year. An international team of United Nations human and
animal health experts has flown to Saudi Arabia to investigate the
recent surge.

Since June 2012, the deadly virus has claimed 382 lives out of 899
infections. There are currently 29 people being treated at various
health facilities across the Kingdom.

Last year, there was a great deal of concern that MERS would be spread
around the world by millions of people who came to Mecca on October
2-7, 2014, for the Hajj, their once in a lifetime pilgrimage.
Saudi officials took numerous precautions, with the result that
apparently no new MERS cases occurred from the Hajj.

This year the Hajj is a little earlier, September 20-25, so all those
precautions will have to be repeated and increased. Arab News and
Reuters

India has worst H1N1 swine flu outbreak in years

This season's outbreak of H1N1 swine flu in India has so far sickened
more than 11,000 people, and killed 703, the worst outbreak since
2009. As of February 11, there were 5,157 reported cases, so the
number of reported cases more than doubled in 8 days. Times of India and Bloomberg

Egypt's al-Sisi calls for a joint Arab military force

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday have a nationwide
television address in which he called on all Arab nations to join
together to create a joint military force to fight terrorism.

Another shock occurred when Egypt received almost none of the
international sympathy that Jordan received after its pilot was killed
by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), with even the U.S. and European administrations cool to
Egypt's plight. Then Qatar criticized the Egyptian air strikes,
reopening the bitter rift between Egypt and Qatar, and causing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to
side with Qatar in order to prevent the rift from worsening. It may
be that the only major power that sympathized with Egypt was Israel.

The chaos in Libya has the potential of further worsening the Arab
rift. There are two competing governments in Libya, one in Tripoli
considered to be Islamist, and one internationally recognized
government in Tobruk in the west. There have been reports, denied by
Qatar, that Qatar is siding with the Islamist government, and has been
supplying weapons to Ansar al-Sharia. Whether that's true or not, the
continuing deterioration in Libya is threatening to worsen an already
overwhelming situation with refugees crossing the Mediterranean for
Italy.

There have been unconfirmed reports in the past of discussions of a
military pact between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
and Kuwait. These discussions now appear to be on tract, with Jordan
and Algeria joining, and with France and Italy also joining, because
of the refugee danger to Europe. The National (UAE) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Jerusalem Post

Armenia's president sends condolence letter to Egypt's al-Sisi

The President of the Republic of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan has sent a
letter of condolence to Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi.
The letter said, "During this difficult time of grief and sorrow, I
express my full support for you, the friendly people of Egypt and for
the relatives of the victims, wishing them steadfastness and strong
spirit."

Looking at the Mideast checkerboard, Egypt and Armenia have Turkey as
a common enemy. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
bitterly critical of Egypt's 2013 coup that overthrew Mohamed Morsi,
and Turkey and Armenia have been embroiled in a century-long
disagreement over whether Turkey committed a genocide of Armenians in
1915. Turkey is also a close ally of Qatar, and an enemy of Israel.
Armen Press (Armenia)

Nigeria's army recaptures Baga, site of 2,000 deaths in Boko Haram massacres

Yemen's president flees to Aden, calls Houthis 'illegitimate'

Anti-Houthi demonstrations in Sanaa on Saturday. The posters have pictures of Hadi (AFP)

Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Yemen's constitutional president, achieved a
colorful escape on Saturday from his Houthi captors in Sanaa, and fled
to his political stronghold in Aden, in south Yemen. From there, he
issued a statement declaring that all Houthi decisions made since the
September 21 coup were "null and illegitimate."

The 9/21 coup by the Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militias took control
of the ministerial government functions in Sanaa, and forced the Sunni
president Hadi to resign on January 21. It had been thought that the
Houthis wanted Hadi to stay in office, where he could be controlled by
the Houthis, who would then have the power but the not
responsibilities of governing. Hadi's resignation caused a power
vacuum that has never been filled. The Houthis arrested Hadi and kept
him prisoner in his home in Sanaa.

How did Hadi escape? It's already becoming an urban legend. One
story is that he covered himself in a head-to-toe Muslim woman's burka
that exposed only the eyes, and pretended to be a woman. Another
story is that he hid in the food truck when it came to deliver his
food for the day. Another was that the Houthis let him go as part of
a deal with the United Nations, which the U.N. denies.

From Aden, he issued a "presidential statement," implying that he's
retracting his resignation. He said that every Houthi decision and
appointment must be reversed, and that all people abducted or under
house arrest should be freed.

There are many questions about what Hadi is going to do next. Aden is
a Sunni stronghold, and one possibility is that he may declare Aden to
be the new capital of Yemen, and characterize Sanaa as a secessionist
capital, which would amount to a declaration of war between the Shia
Houthis and the Sunni militias supporting him.

Yemen is the home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Last
year, President Obama referred to Yemen as an administration success
story, since the military was successfully using drone missiles to
attack AQAP officials in cooperation with Yemen's government, but
without requiring US troops. Both the Houthis and Hadi are opposed to
AQAP, and two AQAP members were killed in a drone strike on Friday.
So apparently the drone strikes are continuing, which is kind of an
ironic twist. Still, Yemen began deteriorating last year soon after
President Obama's statement last year, and the deterioration is
continuing, with the possibility of war in sight, as part of the
general deterioration of the entire Mideast that we've been reporting
on. Yemen Online
and Military Times

Nigeria's army recaptures Baga, site of 2,000 deaths in Boko Haram massacres

According to the army, many Boko Haram militants had been killed,
with some of them drowning in Lake Chad as they tried to flee
from the approaching army.

Last month's massacre at Baga was almost completely ignored by the
international media when it occurred, while the murder in the same
time frame of a few white reporters in the Charlie Hebdo attack in
Paris received intense coverage around the world. Some political
analysts suggested that the NY Times, NBC News and Al Sharpton
consider a dead black person to be of no worth or interest whatsoever
unless killed by a white cop.

Early this month, Nigeria announced that the February 14 presidential
elections would be postponed until March 28 because of threats by Boko
Haram to disrupt the election to terrorist attacks. The political
opposition of the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, wondered why
the security threats would be any better on March 28, and accused the
government of postponing the election to give Jonathan time to fix the
election.

The recapture of Baga has a symbolic value, and the army will now
claim that it's a success that will make the March 28 election safer.

International assistance is increasingly flowing to Nigeria, Cameroon
and Chad to fight Boko Haram. On Saturday, a consignment of military
equipment from the United States military arrived in Cameroon.
BBC and
Osun Defender (Nigeria) and VOA

U.N. may release list of Syrian war criminals

Bashar al-Assad is thought to be on the United Nations list of Syrian war criminals

The investigators at the U.N. Commission for Inquiry on Syria
announced on Friday that there has been an 'exponential rise" in
atrocities killed in Syria, and that, because Russia's veto prevents
the Security Council from taking any action, they may go around the
Security Council and reveal a list of alleged war criminals in Syria.
The list is thought likely to contain the name of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad.

The Commission would have liked to refer the case to the International
Criminal Court (ICC), but that requires a vote of the Security
Council, which Russia always blocks with a veto. The Commission is
therefore recommending a special court without Security Council
approval.

United Nations investigators found a way to go around the Security
Council once before. After Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas to kill
hundreds of people in 2013, a U.N. chemical weapons team was
authorized to investigate the incident. However, thanks to a
threatened Russian veto, the U.N. team was forbidden from assigning
blame for the Sarin attack. But the team found a clever way of assigning blame without having to say it. In their scientific analysis of the evidence, they included
calculations of the trajectories of the rockets that delivered the
Sarin gas. They drew no conclusions about where the rockets were
launched, but they provided enough scientific information within the
report so that experts studying the report could analyze the
trajectories to prove that the rockets must have been launched from a
Syrian Republican Guard unit.

Bashar al-Assad has been a modern day Hitler. He's flattened entire
Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by
sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed dozens with
sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel bombs loaded
with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition, he's used
electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on
tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength"
scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with encouragement
and support from Russia and Iran. Russia in particular has been
providing weapons to al-Assad to support his genocide, making Vladimir
Putin a war criminal as well.

If the war criminal list is made public, then it will be done at the
meeting of the UN Human Rights Council on March 17th. United Nations
and BBC and VOA

Greece apparently caves in on bailout crisis

The Eurogroup of eurozone financial ministers meeting in Brussels on
Friday announced a new deal with Greece that extends the bailout loan
agreement for four months. The agreement was an almost total cave-in
by the Greeks; however, there was one important concession: The Greeks
will not be required to have a higher government surplus in 2015 than
in 2014, which means that there will be no further austerity measures
imposed this year. Other than that, the terms of the agreement were
similar to those of Greece's previous government, and an abandonment
of the promises that the new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, made
during his recent election campaign.

The terms of the agreement are as follows:

As a concession to Greece, the government surplus will
this year will not have to be higher than last year.

"The Greek authorities reiterate their unequivocal commitment to
honor their financial obligations to all their creditors fully and
timely."

"The Greek authorities commit to refrain from any rollback of
measures and unilateral changes to the policies and structural reforms
that would negatively impact fiscal targets, economic recovery or
financial stability, as assessed by the institutions."

The Greeks must submit an Action Plan on Monday, February 23,
based on the previously committed bailout agreement. The Action Plan
will be reviewed at another emergency Eurogroup meeting to be held on
Tuesday.

The action plan must specify how Greece will implement the
austerity requirements that they've previously committed to. This is
a complete reversal of the promises that the Tsipras government made
in order to get elected.

The action plan must be approved by the Eurogroup.

The action plan must be approved by Greece's parliament. There
are concerns that there will be a political backlash among the Greek
people, and in the worst case scenario his government may fall, and be
replaced by something even worse.

The action plan must be approved by the governments or parliaments
of all 19 eurozone countries. That's going to take a lot of
time.

Therefore, Greece doesn't get money until April. However, will
run out of money in March, so some additional change will be needed --
either to provide an early loan, or to allow Greece's banks once again
to borrow from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Remember when we used to talk about "kicking the can down the road"?
Amazingly enough, the Europeans have done it again.

If anything goes wrong with all of these steps, then the plan will
collapse, and Greece will go bankrupt, and probably be forced to leave
the eurozone, to return to its old drachma currency.

But if all goes well, then by April the crisis will be resolved.
Until June, when a new 3.5 billion euro debt payment comes due,
and the whole crisis starts all over again.

It's worth repeating what I've been saying for several years: There is
NO solution to this crisis. And by that I don't mean that no one has
been clever enough to figure out a solution. I mean that no solution
exists. So the only thing the Europeans can do is to keep postponing
the problem -- kicking the can down the road, allowing the crisis to
worsen each time. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

Greece and Germany are eyeball to eyeball on bailout crisis

Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis formally requested
a six-month extension of the loan agreement with Europe, asking Europe
to provide enough cash to Greece to service debts and increase some
welfare programs, but without asking Greece to impose further
austerity requirements.

Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble firmly rejected the
request, accusing Greece of pandering to voters. A German minister
called it a "Trojan horse" designed to get money without having to
reform the economy.

Greece's radical far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras said,
"Tomorrow's Eurogroup [meeting] has just two choices: To accept or
reject the Greek request. We will now discover who wants to find a
solution, and who does not."

There was a phone call between Tsipras and German Chancellor
Angela Merkel, which provided reporters with the obligatory "glimmer
of hope."

The Eurogroup summit of eurozone finance ministers will meet in
emergency session on Friday to see if negotiations can yield a
compromise. Germany, Finland and Slovakia appear to be taking a hard
line towards Greece, while France and Italy appear to be more open to
compromise. If there is no compromise, then Greece will completely
run out of money sometime in March. Greek Reporter and Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini

Libya chaos threatens to reopen bitter rift between Qatar and Egypt

Last week's slaughter of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya by
ISIS-linked Ansar al-Sharia has resulted in a chain of events that led
Qatar to recall its ambassador to Egypt on Thursday, threatening to
reopen a very bitter rift in the Arab world that followed last
summer's Gaza war with Israel. The major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war, brought Israel
plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority into
alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus the Muslim
Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had been particularly
vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi,
but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and Qataris was
equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a mediator and was
able to paper over the differences and obtain a reconciliation in time
for an Arab summit meeting in December, but now King Abdullah has
passed away.

The split between Qatar and Egypt was too vitriolic never to
resurface, and now it's in danger to be doing so. The slaughter of
the Egyptian Coptics has caused nationalism to surge in Egypt,
resulting in an immediate decision by Egypt's president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi to launch airstrikes on Ansar al-Sharia camps and
weapons depots in Libya. Egypt says that its airstrikes were carried
out in coordination with Libya's air force.

Because Egypt is fighting a two-front war, against Ansar Bayt
al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) in north
Sinai and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya, both ISIS-linked, Egypt is
requesting international help in Libya.

The Arab League initially offered Egypt its full backing on the
airstrikes in Libya, saying that Egypt had the right to defend itself
and its citizens. But Qatar refused, and said it was concerned the
strikes could harm civilians and criticized Egypt for not consulting
with other Arab states before launching the airstrikes.

The furious Arab League delegate Tareq Adel from Egypt accused Qatar
of "supporting terrorism and deviating from the Arab consensus."
Qatar responded by withdrawing its ambassador from Cairo.

In an attempt to keep the rift from worsening, the head of Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations condemned Egypt's
comments as "baseless accusations that defy the truth and ignore the
sincere efforts made by the State of Qatar with GCC member states and
the Arab countries to combat terrorism and extremism at all levels."
AFP and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Cairo Post

Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)

Myanmar's president Thein Sein on Tuesday declared a state of
emergency and imposed martial law in the Kokang Special Region of
Burma, on the border with China. The Kokang people are ethnic Chinese
who even use a Chinese phone network and spend Chinese money in this
region. The Kokang Special Region was created in 1989 after the
collapse of Burma's Communist Party. In 2009, Burma's army intervened
to end the arms and drug-trafficking networks, forcing the corrupt
Kokang leader Pheung Kya-shin, born 1931, to flee across the border
into China with 30,000 refugees.

In late December, octogenarian Pheung made a surprise return from
China to the Kokang region, and triggered a major ethnic rebellion
that's resulted in the deaths of both Kokang people and Burmese
soldiers. That violence has continued, and is increasing, resulting
in this week's imposition of martial law throughout the region.

In 2007, at the height of the nationwide riots, I provided a
generational history of Burma back to the 1700s. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter") Since then,
Burma's army has loosened its grip on the country, allowing more
political freedom. But Burma's last crisis war was a bloody civil war
among ethnic groups, with intervention by the Chinese. That war
climaxed in 1958, meaning that Burma is now entering a new
generational Crisis era, so it's no surprise that there's a new
explosion of ethnic violence.

President Thein Sein is asking China's government to take steps to
keep the Kokang army from launching attacks on Burma from China's
soil, but China is not responding.

The major concern is that China's army will intervene on Burma's soil,
as it did during the 1950s civil war, using as an excuse the
protection of ethnic Chinese, the same excuse that Russia is using to
invade Ukraine. BBC and AFP and Reuters

Anthem health insurance data breach puts millions of children at risk

Millions of children are at risk of identity theft because of the Anthem data breach

The consequences of the massive Anthem Inc data breach that we described two weeks ago are increasingly
being seen as catastrophic. 80 million current and former customers
had their personal information compromised, including birthdates,
addresses, and social security numbers.

This is bad enough for adults, but there are millions of children
included in that theft. A child's identity can be stolen as much
as an adult's can, and the child's family not even be aware for
several months.

Even worse, the stolen data will be valid for decades. Some hacker
group can use it to steal your child's identity next year, or five or
ten years from now.

Anthem is providing free identity theft protection, but only for two
years.

Any current or former customer of the following health plans is
potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue
Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and
Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore, Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.
Credit.com and CNBC
and Anthem Inc.

Putin gloats over humiliating Russian victory over Ukraine

The battle over the city Debaltseve in Ukraine, which we described yesterday, has ended in
victory for Ukraine's rebels, backed by Russian army soldiers and
weapons, and a humiliating defeat for Ukraine's soldiers. The Russian
attack and subsequent victory was a violation of the the ceasefire
agreement that was signed last week by Russia's president Vladimir
Putin.

Putin gloated about the victory, saying:

"Of course, it’s always bad to lose. Of course it’s
always a hardship when you lose to yesterday’s miners or
yesterday’s tractor drivers. But life is life. It’ll surely go
on."

He perhaps unintentionally implied that Russian army soldiers are
former miners and tractor drivers. At any rate, it now appears
clear that he never intended to honor the ceasefire which,
after all, is no surprise.

The capture of Debaltseve is an important strategic victory for the
Russians, in that it lies at several crossroads in east Ukraine, with
a rail line that links Debaltseve to Russia, and consolidates the
Russian invasion and capture of the entire region. According to
analysts, the fall of Debaltseve is both a military disaster and
political disaster Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko. He faced
massive domestic criticism for agreeing to the Minsk "peace agreement"
in the first place, for making painful compromises that ceded gains on
the ground to the Russians, and now the agreement turns out to be a
sham after all, with the Russians gaining consolidated control of a
large part of eastern Ukraine.

China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'

As I've been describing for a couple of years, China has been using a
"salami-slicing" technique of using military force to annex one
portion after another of regions of the South China Sea historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines. China supports its military force by making unsupported
historical claims, and then refusing to defend them in the appropriate
United Nations tribunal, since they know they'll lose.

The salami-slicing technique is designed to take advantage of the
inherent weakness of democracies during generational Crisis eras. The
technique would not have worked as well, or at all, prior to 2000,
since the Silent generation survivors of World War II were still in
charge, and would not have been fooled or tolerated specious claims
like those that China is making about the South China Sea. Indeed,
all presidents since WW II have been guided by the Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial
today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small
military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end
up having an enormous conflict like World War II. In other words, the
Truman Doctrine could be said to be the antidote to the salami-slicing
strategy.

Every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to
and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to
completely repudiate the Truman Doctrine, even in the face of blatant
salami-slicing. And he's not alone, of course, as the entire West
is succumbing.

So we have China annexing one region after another in the South China
Sea, using as an excuse specious historical claims that the West is
unwilling to challenge. Russia invaded and annexed first Crimea and
now east Ukraine, using the specious excuse that there are ethnic
Russians living there. There are over a million Americans living in
Mexico, so under the Russian reasoning, America could invade and annex
the entire state of Nuevo León.

Probably the most visible and consequential repudiation of the Truman
Doctrine was President Obama's flip-flop on the question of Sarin gas
and other chemical weapons used by the regime of Syria's genocidal
president Bashar al-Assad against his own people. To this day, he's
killed countless innocent women and children with barrel bombs loaded
with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.

Now we have news on Thursday from Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy
to Syria, that al-Assad has agreed to a "freeze" in dropping barrel
bombs on the city of Aleppo. The "freeze" will take place some time
in the future, to be announced. Like China's specious historical
claims, like Russia's ethnic Russian excuse, al-Assad waves a sham
peace plan in front of the United Nations and everyone starts
tittering about a "ray of hope." This is another version of the
salami-slicing strategy, and it's possible in a generational Crisis
era.

There is a flaw in the salami-slicing strategy. Once a government
starts using it, they think they can use it over and over to get
away with anything. It's pretty clear that Russia, China and
Syria all believe that they can commit crimes with impunity.

But the flaw is that at some point it stops working. That's what
happened in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland. Hitler was certain that
he could take one more salami slice with impunity. But the British
population by that time had changed, and become sufficiently
nationalistic to refuse to be made fools of again.

I've been describing for years how one nation after another is
becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic in a generational
Crisis era. So you have two conflicting trends: the criminal nation
becomes increasingly brazen in using the salami-slicing strategy, and
the other nations become increasingly nationalistic and less tolerant.
At some point, these two trends collide, and there's a new world war
-- a war that might have been avoided if a policy like the Truman
Doctrine had been continued -- or was even still possible. International Living and AP

Taliban claims responsibility for bombing in Lahore, Pakistan

Police rush an injured man to hospital after suicide bombing in Lahore on Tuesday (AP)

A suicide bomber detonated his bomb on Tuesday early afternoon in the
large east Pakistan city of Lahore, in Punjab province, killing as
many as 11 people, and injuring dozens more. The target was a police
station. The carnage could have been much worse, but the suicide
bomber was stopped by heavy security before entering the building.

Jamaatul Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban
(Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), has claimed responsibility. According to
the Jamaatul Ahrar spokesman, the attack was revenge for the
anti-Taliban military operations being conducted in Pakistan's tribal
areas, and for hangings of several convicted terrorists. The military
action was triggered by a massive terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi
last year in June. The hangings began after the horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school, killing over 130 schoolchildren in December of last year.

Last Friday, Taliban militants stormed a Shia commemoration service,
killing as many as 21 Shia worshippers. Before that was a service in
Shikarpur, killing more than 60 people.

As we dwell on atrocities committed in the Mideast by terror groups
linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), it would be worthwhile to give an occasional thought to
Pakistan, where Taliban atrocities are almost a daily way of life.
Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)

A ceasefire agreement was signed
in Minsk, Belarus, last week, but it's being openly ignored
by anti-government Russians who are advancing on the central
city of Debaltseve, where 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped.
The Russians are simply saying that the ceasefire doesn't
apply to them, and they're continuing warfare.

A good summary of the situation was provided on Tuesday by William
Taylor, former American ambassador to Ukraine, interview on the BBC.
He was asked whether the new Minsk ceasefire agreement is going to
hold (my transcription):

"It doesn't look good at the moment. All is not lost,
it's still possible for the Minsk II agreement to be put into
effect, but it has to be put into effect by both sides.

The weapons were supposed to have been pulled back by now, well
out of range of each other's. This is a tragedy for the people in
the cities, tragedy for people who are living there, but it can be
resolved by adhering to this agreement.

[[Question: Would you point the finger of blame equally at the
rebels and the Ukrainian troops]]

I wouldn't. I would point the blame at the Russian troops who are
in eastern Ukraine. There may be rebels there, maybe Ukrainian
rebels are there, but there are Russian troops, and Russian
soldiers, and Russian units who are there, who are the principal
cause of this overall problem.

[[Question: When you look at what's happening, it looks as if
those troops have not even paid lip service to what was agreed in
Minsk. Did that take the West by surprise do you think?]]

I think it has. The rebels and the Russians who are there in the
Debaltseve have said that the Minsk agreement doesn't apply to
Debaltseve. Now, what does that mean? They're clearly in the
zone that both sides are supposed to pull back from. Of course
the Minsk agreement applies to Debaltseve, and of course they
should be pulling back, and the ceasefire should have gone into
effect."

It's worth repeating again that anything that's said by Russian
officials or Russian media is pretty much worthless. Last year,
Russia claimed they weren't invading Crimea, just as Russian troops
were invading Crimea. Russia claimed that they wouldn't annex Crimea,
just before they annexed Crimea, a clear violation of international
law. Russia claimed that there were no Russian troops in east Ukraine
at a time when Russian troops were entering east Ukraine. On
September 5, Russia signed an international peace agreement (the
"Minsk protocols") in which they committed to a political compromise
in east Ukraine, and then repeatedly violated their own agreement.
Now they've signed a new Minsk agreement on February 11, and are
simply ignoring it. Basically, anything that comes from Russian state
media or Russia's government should be considered to be a lie, and
should be discarded as worthless.

New Zealand debating military help for Iraq against ISIS

After an in-person invitation by Iraq's foreign minister Dr Ibrahim
al-Jaafari in a visit to Auckland, New Zealand foreign minister Murray
McCully said that plans were being discussed to send about 150 New
Zealand troops to Iraq to help train Iraq's army. The suggestion is
controversial, with some politicians questioning whether the Iraq army
can protect the NZ troops, while others wonder if NZ is getting into
"another Vietnam." TV New Zealand and Stuff (New Zealand)

Greece bailout talks collapse in acrimony

A meeting on Monday in Brussels by the Eurogroup, the eurozone finance
ministers, which was intended to reach agreement on Greece's financial
crisis, ended hours earlier than usual in better acrimony.

Greece has been asking for a "bridge loan" -- enough money to survive
for six months, but without having to continue the harsh austerity
requirements that accompanied the 240 billion euros already loaned to
Greece in the bailout program. Europe has rejected this proposal, and
given Greece a "take it or leave it" ultimatum to extend the existing
bailout program. The European statement said the Greeks must continue
with austerity on "tax policy, privatization, labor market reforms,
financial sector and pensions." Indeed, any substantial change in
Europe's position would require a vote in the German, Dutch, Finnish
and Slovak parliaments.

Greece's new finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, from the radical
far-left Syriza party, made a bitter statement to the press referred
to the European proposal, "an extension of the current program," and
calling it "absurd and unreasonable." Indeed, any back-down by
Greece's newly elected government would cause a backlash in Greece's
public, and a sharp plunge in the new government's poll ratings.

Greece has only two weeks left to come to some agreement, before a
huge bond payment comes due. The Greek government is not allowed to
borrow money -- issue government bonds. The bailout funding has been
suspended, because the Greek government has said it no longer wants to
cooperating with the bailout program. The Greek government only has
tax revenues to live off of, which won't be enough to pay public
sector salaries, pay off pensions which the new government wants to
increase, and make debt payments. And Greece's banks are bleeding
deposits by two billion euros per week.

According to reports, Greece accepts 70% of the committed austerity
requirements, and rejects 30%, but hasn't revealed which requirements
are in each category. Some hope that this can form the basis for a
compromise.

The Eurogroup has given Greece a Friday deadline to agree to the
bailout requirements. The sides are headed for a collision, unless
they can quickly figure out a way to kick the can down the road.
Kathimerini (Athens) and Telegraph (London)

Egypt faces two-front war with airstrikes in Libya

Egypt's army announced on Monday morning that it has conducted air
strikes against militant targets in Libya, including training camps in
arms depots. The airstrikes were revenge attacks after a terror group
linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) released a video portraying the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christian fishermen who had gone
to Libya to earn money to send back home. Egypt's president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi had on Sunday given a nationally televised address
wherein he vowed to choose the "necessary means and timing to avenge
the criminal killings."

Egypt is now facing a two-front war against terrorist groups linked to
ISIS. The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) has conducted numerous attacks in Egypt's
Sinai, along the border with Israel and Gaza, and has recently changed
its name to "Sinai Province," meaning "Sinai Province of Islamic
State" when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its
allegiance to ISIS.

Libya's terror group Ansar al-Sharia has likewise renamed itself
Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus (Caliphate State Tripolitania) when it
repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to
ISIS.

Egypt is fighting ABM with ground troops is Sinai, and for that reason
it's believed that Egypt does not have the military resources to send
ground troops into Libya. For that reason, Egypt, France and Italy
are calling on the United States and the international community to
resume military action in Libya. Al Ahram (Cairo) and CNN

Muslim versus Muslim wars in the Mideast continue to grow

As I've been writing for weeks, there is a large and growing Muslim
versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia. The
Muslims are not at war with the West, as many claim, but they're
almost entirely at war with each other. This Muslim versus Muslim war
is going to continue to grow until the West is pulled into it, and
then the West WILL be at war with some Muslims, allied with others.

There is a tendency to view this situation as similar to the rise of
Hitler and the Nazis, with ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi taking on
the role of Hitler, commanding armies all over the Mideast. But
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not what's
going on.

Much (though not all) of the Muslim world is deep into a generational
Crisis era, with the last crisis being the collapse of the Ottoman
empire, followed by wars of consolidation in the 1920s-30s. Based on
historical research that I've been doing for years, countries and
societies suffer increasing societal breakdowns as the decades pass
since the end of the previous generational crisis war. The "Arab
Spring" that started in Tunisia in 2011 was the first major societal
breakdown in the Muslim world, and what we're seeing is an
increasing societal breakdown.

So, in my opinion, what we're seeing is not the formation of a unified
ISIS army waging war against other Muslims, at least not yet, but a
general societal breakdown where local, individual terror groups like
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis and Ansar al-Sharia find it convenient to declare
allegiance to ISIS for public relations purposes.

Ironically, instead of a unified ISIS army, what we may be seeing is
the mirror image. The "moderate" Arab nations have been notably
reluctant to take part in the U.S. anti-ISIS coalition. However, what
ISIS's public relations stunts have accomplished is an increased
realization of many Arab countries, including Jordan, United Arab
Emirates (UAE), and now Egypt, to understand that their national
security depends on fighting ISIS and terror groups linked to it.
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Independent (London)

Iraq army preparing to recapture Mosul from ISIS

Last June, when IS militias attacked Mosul, the Iraq army just dropped
its weapons and ran away. Now, according to prime minister Haider
al-Abadi, the Iraq army has been scoring successes, pushing back ISIS
from areas across Iraq, although ISIS still controls about a quarter
of Iraqi territory. According to Abadi, Iraq is planning an offensive
this year to recapture Mosul from ISIS. Although US ground troops
will not be needed, Abadi said the operation's success would also
hinge upon close co-ordination between Iraqi security forces, the US
military, and the Peshmerga. BBC

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has called a national
security emergency and declared seven days of national mourning, after
a terrorist group released a video showing the beheading in Libya of
Egyptian Coptic Christians. The video was released on a web site
belonging to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). The people shown were among 27 Egyptian Coptic Christian
workers who were kidnapped in the Libyan city of Sirte in December and
January.

The beheading video comes two days after an ISIS online magazine
display pictures of 21 hostages, accompanied by the text:

"This month, the soldiers of the Khilafah in Wilayat
Tarabulus [Caliphate State Tripolitania] captured 21 Coptic
crusaders, almost five years after the blessed operation against
the Baghdad church executed in revenge for Kamilia Shehata, Wafa
Constantine, and other sisters who were tortured and murdered by
the Coptic Church of Egypt."

Apparently, Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus is the renamed version of
the terror group Ansar al-Sharia, presumably renamed when it
repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and swore its allegiance to
ISIS.

The "blessed operation" apparently refers to the October 2010 bombing
of a Catholic Church in Baghdad. The "other sisters" apparently
refers to unsubstantiated claims that Egyptian Christian women who
converted to Islam were tortured and killed by the Coptic Orthodox
Church.

Last year, there were an estimated one million Egyptian guest workers
in Libya, but the numbers have shrunk considerably since civil war
broke out last summer between the Libya Dawn government in Tripoli and
the internationally recognized Libyan government which has fled to
Tobruk. The 21 hostages have been identified as fishermen from an
impoverished village in northern Egypt. Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and Guardian (London)

Egypt purchases fighter jets over fears of militias in Libya

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday vowed to choose
the "necessary means and timing to avenge the criminal killings," for
the murder of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians by an ISIS-linked militia
in Libya, but military action in Libya has been considered for some
time. The murder is increasing public pressure on al-Sisi to take
some action to counter the increasing security threats from jihadist
militias in Libya. Egypt has in the past denied that it had taken
part in airstrikes in Libya, and said that no airstrikes are planned.
It now appears that airstrikes are on the table, though ground troops
are apparently not being considered at this time. The border between
Egypt and Libya has become almost lawless, and cross-border attacks
into Egypt have become common.

On Thursday, Egypt announced that it will sign on Monday a $5.7
billion deal to purchase 24 Dassault Aviation Rafale fighter jets, a
naval frigate and related military equipment from France. The
purchase will be partially funded by France and by an Arab country,
either United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia. Egypt is no longer
receiving military aid from the United States, as the Obama
administration cut it off after the 2013 coup that deposed president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government.

Libya itself is almost in total chaos, with two different
governments. The government in the west is Libya Dawn, with Islamists
and militia from the Misrata region, in control of the capital city
Tripoli. The second government is the internationally recognized
government, which was forced to flee to Tobruk in the east. The
al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Ansar al-Sharia, has been operating
in Libya with headquarters in Benghazi, where it was responsible for
the attack that killed American ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in
2012. However, based on Sunday's news reports, it appears that Ansar
al-Sharia is no longer allied with al-Qaeda, and has now pledged
itself to ISIS and renamed itself Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus
[Caliphate State Tripolitania].

Egypt is facing increasing threats from ISIS-linked militants. There
have been other abductions of Egyptian workers by Libyan militias. In
the Sinai, along the border with Gaza and Israel, there have been a
series of terrorist attacks. There have been recent reports that
Israel and Egypt and planning joint military operations to target
terrorists in Sinai. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and France 24 and Debka

Yemen may form second government in Aden

The governments of three Yemen provinces, Aden, Lahij, and Mahra, met
in Aden on Sunday to discuss the situation following the government
takeover last month by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis of Yemen's
government in Sanaa. The leaders of the three provinces announced
that they support the country becoming a federation as discussed at
meetings last year. They called for the reinstatement of the president
and for the militia to step down.

Yemen seems to be going down the same road as Libya, with the
possibility of two governments -- a rebel government in the capital
city Sanaa, and an internationally recognized government in Aden.
There's the additional complication that Yemen is the headquarters of
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which may either fight with
or try to control a second government in Aden.

Also on Sunday, the UN Security Council prepared to adopt a
resolution calling on the Houthis to step aside or "face
consequences." The Security Council resolution is being supported by
the Arab League and by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). According
to a GCC statement, "In the case of failure to reach an agreement
... the GCC member states will take measures which enable them to
maintain their vital interests in the security and stability of
Yemen."

However, a Houthi spokesman responded to the GCC's comments, calling
them "provocative blackmail": "The Yemeni people won’t cede power in
the face of threats." Arab News and
The National (UAE)

Nigeria requests US troops to fight Boko Haram

Goodluck Jonathan on Friday (WSJ)

Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan on Friday said in an interview
that he wants the U.S. to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram. In the past,
Jonathan has rejected the idea of foreign troops on Nigeria's soil,
but now he noted that U.S. troops are fighting the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and has apparently has changed his
mind:

"Are they not fighting ISIS? Why can't they come to
Nigeria? They are our friends. If Nigeria has a problem, then I
expect the US to come and assist us."

However, Pentagon spokesman Rear-Admiral John Kirby said, "I can tell
you that there are no plans as I speak here to send unilaterally, to
send or to add US troops into Nigeria. There are no US troops
operating in Nigeria."

This reminds me of the situation involving the Darfur war during the
George Bush administration. In 2004, "peace activist" Jesse Jackson
condemned President Bush for sending troops to the Iraq war, but
called on Bush to lead a worldwide effort to send troops to Darfur. He said, "If we can have troops in
Korea, in Nato, there should be nothing shameful about defending life
in Africa."

"The conduct of this [Iraq] war has so badly damaged
our readiness; the conduct of this war and the blood and resources
we've had to expend has limited our credibility around the world,
and limited our flexibility in terms of the use of force. Here we
are - we could end the carnage in Darfur tomorrow."

This statement came shortly after he demanded that American troops be
sent to Darfur:

"I would use American force now. I think it's not
only time not to take force off the table. I think it's time to
put force on the table and use it. ... Let's stop the bleeding. I
think it's a moral imperative."

Other "peace activists" at the time were more explicit in saying that
President Bush was willing to send troops to help white people, but
not to send black people in Africa. Susan Rice, the current National
Security Advisor, was particularly vocal in demands to send troops to
Darfur.

So let's see if anyone asks this administration why they're willing to
fight terrorists in Iraq and Syria killing white people, but not
willing to fight terrorists in Nigeria killing black people. Naij.com (Nigeria) and AFP

Debka: Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks

Following the capture and murder of the Jordanian pilot by the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), the Arab nations that
were announced to be part of the US administration's anti-ISIS
coalition have been dropping out. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have
dropped out of the coalition completely. There is absolutely no
chance that Egypt will join the coalition, as had originally been
hoped. United Arab Emirates (UAE) has partially remained in the
coalition.

The latest edition of Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me
by a subscriber), contains a detailed analysis of the US anti-ISIS
strategy, based on its own intelligence sources. I like to reference
Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable insights into what's
going on, but it's written from Israel's point of view, and sometimes
gets things wrong.

According to the analysis, Obama is taking every step possible to
avoid being drawn into another Iraq war. While he's criticized for
having no strategy, he actually does have a strategy: to "dump that
war in Iran's lap" by using the nuclear weapons talks to draw Iran
into fighting ISIS instead of us.

Here's an outline of the analysis:

With the international coalition on ISIS shrinking, the
U.S. "bulldozed" UAE to contribute to the coalition by sending a
squadron of 16 F-16 fighters to Jordan, to make air strikes in Syria.
All of Jordan's and UAE's air strikes are accompanied by U.S. F-22
Raptor stealth fighters for protection from ISIS ground fire. The
coalition "war on ISIS" is treading water, accomplishing nothing but
rhetoric.

President Obama has undertaken "a delicate, high-wire gambit" for
dealing with ISIS. Rather than allowing US ground forces, Obama is
attempting to get Iran to do the "heavy lifting" in fighting ISIS, in
return for giving Iran increased leeway in developing its nuclear
capabilities, while reducing the sanctions.

Obama is giving Iran maximum freedom to move in Iraq, Syria and
Yemen, so that Iran will be drawn into war with ISIS, theoretically
without U.S. involvement. In particular, Obama has made a deal with
Iran not to impede the Houthi takeover of Yemen. Iran has recently
been bragging that it has control of four major Mideast capital cities
-- Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and Sanaa, in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and
Yemen, respectively, and Obama is letting Iran establish those
strongholds without hindrance.

Obama's relationship with Egypt is in a complete deep-freeze,
where even vestigial day-to-day military ties, including intelligence
sharing, have been shut down. Obama's relationship with Israel is
almost as bad. But Egypt and Israel are collaborating at the highest
level, particularly in missile and air strikes against terrorists in
Sinai. Aside from the U.S., Israel is the only Middle East power
engaging in drone warfare against Islamic terrorists. Israel is
supplying the advanced intelligence technology that Egypt lacks, and
is required to support air strikes against terrorists in Sinai.

However, Egypt has had no success in shutting down the smuggling
routes from Libya, used to transfer weapons from Libya to Syria, Iraq,
Jordan and Sinai. The Egypt-Libya border is becoming completely
lawless, like Sinai.

Saudi Arabia's new King Salman is shoring up Saudi Arabia's
relationship with Pakistan. Since 1999, the two governments entered
into an unwritten agreement for Riyadh to fund large sections of
Pakistan's military nuclear program, in return for which Pakistan
would make nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles available to
the Saudis if a strategic need arose. The Saudi-Pakistan connection
may jeopardize Obama's plans with Iran.

The Saudis are funding Egypt's purchase of military jets and
missiles from France. Since a squadron of French fighter jets is
based in Saudi Arabia and France maintains air and sea bases in the
UAE, the arms deal would propel Egypt into integration in the
French-Saudi-UAE defense alliance.

Long-time readers are aware that ten years ago I wrote, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would become America's ally
as the generation of survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution
died off, and that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would be allied with
China against us. Ten years ago, that prediction seemed insane. So
it's been fascinating and astonishing, in the last two years, to see
that prediction come closer to reality every week.

This is a good time to repeat something I've written about several times. There is no doubt in my
mind that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Iran was attacked with
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in 1988 by Iraq, and Iran would
already have developed nuclear weapons if Saddam Hussein hadn't been
expelled by the Iraq war in 2003. Iran sees itself surrounded by
potential enemies, Pakistan and Israel, both having nuclear weapons.
For Iran, developing nuclear weapons is an existential issue.

However, as I've described before, Iran takes an enormous amount of
pride in not having invaded other countries, even though other
countries have invaded Iran. If you look back at Iran's major wars of
the last century -- the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09,
the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, Iran never attacked anyone else. This is now part of Iran's
DNA, and even the top leadership would be repulsed by the idea of a
preemptive attack on Israel.

So my conclusion is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons as a
defensive measure, but has no plans at all to use them on Israel,
which is what is widely believed. Guardian (London) and Debka

Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden

Aftermath of the bombing of Dresden, February 1945

On Thursday, 10,000 people joined hands along the Elbe river
commemorating the tens of thousands of people who were burned alive on
February 13, 1945, when the Allies firebombed Dresden. In the space
of 23 minutes, hundreds of bombers dropped some 3,000 high-explosive
bombs and 400,000 incendiary bombs. The city center was vaporized.
The fires sucked up all the oxygen, so that those who weren't burned
to death dies of suffocation. The fires could be seen 200 miles away,
and the temperatures reached so high that glass melted in cellars.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the firebombing of
Dresden is looked at as part of the "explosive climax" of a
generational crisis war. Non-crisis wars almost always end
indecisively, as in the case of America's Korean and Iraq wars. (The
Vietnam war ended decisively as a victory for Vietnam because,
although it was a non-crisis war for America, it a crisis war for
Vietnam.)

There are many events that contributed to the explosive climax
of World War II, but the following three are perhaps the
best-known:

The landing at Normandy beach, where thousands
of American soldiers were shot down like fish in a barrel.

The firebombing of Dresden, where tens of thousands of people
were burned alive.

The nuclear bombing of Japanese cities.

What these three events have in common is that they illustrate
something that happens in a crisis war that doesn't happen in a
non-crisis war: As the war approaches an end, the value of an
individual human live drops to zero, and the only thing of value is
the survival of the entire society and its way of life.

This happens to every society, every nation, without exception at the
climax of a generational crisis war. When a society becomes desperate
enough, they will take steps so horrible that the traumatized
survivors will spend the rest of their lives feeling guilty about them
and perhaps even regretting them, while the younger generation growing
up later will have no such regrets. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and BBC

What's the value of a human life?

I wrote about this a lot when the Sri Lanka civil war was approaching
a climax in 2009. The civil war had been going on over two decades,
and as far as I know, every analyst and journalist in the world was
predicting that the war would continue for many more years. However,
in January 2008 something changed that made it clear from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics that this war had transitioned into a
generational crisis war that would soon reach a climax. As I wrote at
that time (see "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels"),
the army suddenly committed itself to defeating the LTTE (Tamil
rebels) by the end of 2008.

"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning
point once we are able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate
in bunkers and forward defense lines."

What followed during the next year was very dramatic. The LTTE
purposely embedded itself in the civilian population, so that the army
could not attack them without killing civilians. The army ferociously
attacked the LTTE, even when civilian lives were at stake. What
happened was that the value of a civilian life had dropped to zero for
both the army and the LTTE, and the only thing of value was victory.

Today, there are calls for the Sri Lankan army to be charged with war
crimes, to which my response is that if Sri Lanka war is a war crime,
then the firebombing of Dresden is also a war crime -- something that
some German activists would agree with.

Regular readers of this daily Generational Dynamics World View article
may wonder how I select topics and what things I look for. In my
mind, I'm constantly trying to measure how much the value of an
individual human life has become, and I tend to choose stories that
indicate either that the value remains high or that the value is going
lower. So, for example, yesterday's story on Europe's search and rescue program for migrants crossing
from Libya to reach Italy is really a story about how important it
still is to Europeans whether desperate refugees drown in the
Mediterranean Sea.

And it's not always Muslims who are the perpetrators. In "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht", I wrote about
the wild, frenzied attack by Buddhists on Muslims that killed dozens
and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims,
including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. In that
article, I compared the slaughter to 1938's Kristallnacht, which was a
prelude to the Nazi Holocaust.

I've written several times about
the Central African Republic and its generational crisis war currently
in progress between the Muslim tribes and the Christian tribes. Both
sides are committing atrocities, and this war will not end until
there's been an explosive climax that all survivors will regret for
the rest of their lives.

A reader recently wrote and asked me:

"John: Which country will be the first to use a
nuclear weapon?"

That's an interesting question whose answer cannot be predicted. The
countries with nuclear weapons are: US, Russia, UK, France, China,
Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea. Once the world war starts, any
one of these countries might be the first, if the people in that
country panic and decide that nothing is more important than victory.
By the climax of the war, every one of those countries will have
reached that conclusion, and every nuclear weapon will have been used.
My estimate is that by the time the war ends, some 3 billion people
will have been killed, leaving about 4 billion people to rebuild the
world. At that time, the survivors will vow never to let anything
like that ever happen again, and will take all the steps they
can think of to keep that vow.

Generational Dynamics and prolactin

The discussion above of nuclear weapons is the kind of article that
divides people. I've often been puzzled by other people's reactions
to my web site. Some want to read it every day, others absolutely
can't stand it, and can't stand me as a result. Ten years ago,
friends I've known for years treated me as a harmless kook, but now,
as the world worsens and one generational theory prediction after
another has come true, those friends now shun me. This is similar to
the mythical Cassandra, whom I've written about many times. I've also
been puzzled why, after 12 years, there's no other web site in the
world like mine.

A couple of weeks ago, I heard something that provided some insight.
There was a BBC World Service show called "Why Factor," with the
subject "Sad/Gloomy Music." It turns out that some people can listen
to sad music and really enjoy it, while other people listen to sad
music and absolutely can't stand it.

This observation seemed stunningly similar to the reactions to my
World View articles and my web site.

The only "happy" music sample they played during the show was "The
Beatles - I Want to Hold your Hand." They played samples of a number
of "sad" music songs:

According to the show, the last in this list is the most popular
sad song among the show's listeners.

The show described the differences in chord structure between happy
and sad music, but unfortunately I know nothing about music and didn't
understand, which is too bad.

However, according to the BBC show, the differences in music are also
generational: In the 1960s (the generational Awakening era), most
popular music had the "happy" chord structure, while in the 2000s (the
generational Crisis era), most popular music has the "sad" chord
structure.

This opened my eyes to a whole new slant on the generational changes
in music. In my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X",
I wrote about the generational changes in the lyrics of music since
World War II, and I quoted some Gen-X lyrics, such as the song
"Mr. Self Destruct" by Nine Inch Nails.

However, the concept that there are "happy chords" and "sad chords"
and that they differ by generations goes beyond lyrics and was quite
new to me.

One personal note: For my whole life, I've always loved Great Band Era
music, 1935-45, and I still have a large record collection of Great
Band Era songs. I'm going to guess that most Great Band Era music had
the "sad" chord structure, and I'm going to guess that that's the
reason I like it a lot more than most popular music, and I'm going to
guess that my enjoyment of Great Band Era music is related to my being
able to do this World View article every day. I also love original
cast recordings from the 1930s-50s, and the reason may be the same.

Returning to the BBC program, there's a theory having to do with the
hormone prolactin. Prolactin has to do with milk production in
pregnant women, and has no known normal function in men. However,
according to the show, there's some research that men and women who
like sad music have an excess of prolactin, and those who hate sad
music don't have enough prolactin. So maybe what makes me unique is
that my blood is overflowing with prolactin. And also, maybe the
people who read my World View articles have more prolactin than
average, and those who can't stand them have less.

According to Prof David Huron of Ohio State University, quoted in the
program:

"The research shows that for ordinary sadness, when
we're in that state, we are our most deadly realistic in our
self-appraisal. It has beneficial effects on judgment, on memory,
all sorts of cognitive benefits that happen from being in a
saddened state."

Since the World View articles are most "deadly realistic" analyses
around, then this is the theory how I can write these articles every
day: I have a good analytical ability, I have just the right
education, and, most important, I have too much prolactin in my blood.
If this theory is true then, Dear Reader, that's why I'm able to write
these articles every day. And for similar reasons, that's why you
read them every day.

Here's a comment from a reader:

"I have a sister who sees the world through rose
colored glasses. I have ceased to attempt to give her insight, or
guidance into where we are headed. She prefers, in spite of
overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to see the world as a
"nice" place, where someone will always arrive in time to save
her, and those she cares about, from evil."

At least 300 migrants have drowned in the Mediterranean sea
after their boats sank earlier this week. They had
departed from Libya on Saturday in four rubber dinghies that
sank after four days at sea. Only nine people were rescued out
of hundreds of migrants trying to reach Italy's Lampedusa Island.

Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR Europe bureau director, said:

"This is a tragedy on an enormous scale and a stark
reminder that more lives could be lost if those seeking safety are
left at the mercy of the sea. Saving lives should be our top
priority. Europe cannot afford to do too little too
late."

This "tragedy" is going to force the European Union, once again, to go
through a painful review of its search and rescue policy in the
Mediterranean, to prevent it from turning into what Pope Francis
called "a vast cemetery."

Italy has been complaining since then that it shouldn't entirely be
Italy's responsibility to rescue migrants in the Mediterranean, and
that it should be a shared responsibility among all the EU nations.
Naturally, other EU nations were perfectly happy letting Italy foot
the entire search and rescue bill.

But after much haggling, the Mare Nostrum program expired in October,
after which the search and rescue function was taken over by an EU
operation called "Triton." However, Triton's budget is much smaller,
just 2.9 million euros per months. And it restricts its operations to
only within 30 miles off the Italian coast.

In the year from October 2013 to October 2014, Italy rescued about
100,000 refugees. Estimates are that 3,000 refugees have died in the
Mediterranean 2014, critics are complaining that "multiples of the
3,000" will drown because Mare Nostrum was replaced by Triton. Adding
to the concerns is that the number of refugees attempting the trip
doubled in 2014 to 218,000 from the 2013 figure. The number is
expected to increase further in 2015.

It's politically almost impossible for the EU or any democratic
government to ignore and allow thousands of people to simply
drown, no matter who's at fault. Pro-refugee activists claim
that the EU has no choice but to increase its search and rescue
budget again.

People smugglers charge desperate people from Syria and North Africa
thousands of dollars each, stuff them all on a boat and send it out to
sea, knowing that someone will rescue them (or not caring whether
someone will rescue them). In a well-publicized case in December,
people smugglers packed almost 1,000 people into a boat, after
typically collecting thousands of dollars from each migrant, and sent
the ship out into the open sea with no crew, running on autopilot.
( "2-Jan-15 World View -- European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships")
The Italian navy was able to board the ship and take control of it.

Skeptics point out that having a robust search and rescue operation
only encourages migrants to risk the trip. They argue that if there
had been no search and rescue effort, then migrants would not attempt
to reach Europe. Others point out that desperate people in Syria and
Eritrea will take the risk no matter what Triton's budget is.
Irish Independent and UNHCR and Guardian (London, 31-Oct-2014)

Confusion reigns over Ukraine ceasefire deal

Ukraine ceasefire negotiations continued through the night in Minsk,
the capital city of Belarus. The negotiators were Russia's President
Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's leader Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor
Angela Merkel and France's President François Hollande.

On Thursday morning, Putin came out and announced a ceasefire deal.
According to the deal:

The ceasefire will start on Sunday.

Both sides will immediately pull back heavy weapons,
starting on Sunday.

The anti-Russian sanctions will end on Monday, unless
extended.

Kiev will resume sending pension checks, welfare payments, and
government salaries to the districts under the Russians' control.

The Russian-held portions of east Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk,
have special status, and are largely out of control of the Kiev
government. They will have their own militias.

Kiev will control the border with Russia again by the end of the
year.

It's hard to find anything meaningful in this. Do we believe that the
anti-government Russians in east Ukraine are going to stop shooting?
Do we believe that Russia is going to stop sending soldiers and
weapons into east Ukraine? Do we believe that Putin will keep any
commitment at all, if he doesn't feel like it? A lot of people would
answer "no" to all of these.

If the West lifts the sanctions on Monday, then Putin will have won a
total victory, and completely humiliated the West. More likely, the
sanctions will be kept in place, and nothing will have changed. We
may have some answers by mid-week. AP and Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Russia Today

Failing Ukraine ceasefire negotiations to go through the night

As of this writing on Wednesday evening ET, the negotiations
to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine have failed to reach agreement.
However, negotiations will continue through the night.

Violence has been increasing in eastern Ukraine, as Russia has
poured heavy weapons and possibly thousands of soldiers from
Russia to support the anti-government Russians in east Ukraine.

The meeting is taking place in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus.
The participants are Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's
leader Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's
President François Hollande. Earlier in the day, a tense
Vladimir Putin broke a pencil he was holding. At a scheduled
"family photo" during a break in the meeting, all four faces
were extremely grim.

Ukraine's government would like Russia to stop supplying weapons and
soldiers to the insurgents. Russia would like Europe to end the
sanctions. Right now, it looks like neither side will get what they
want. BBC
and Twitter

Greece's negotiations with eurozone fail to reach deal

Wednesday's meeting of the Eurogroup meeting of eurozone financial
ministers ended in failure, with no agreement. Under its new
government, Greece is demanding a "bridge loan" that will permit it to
pay its bills and increase government spending over the next six
months. Several eurozone countries, led by Germany oppose this
proposal. Since no joint statement was issued on Wednesday, it's
thought that the two sides are very far apart. There will be another
Eurogroup meeting on Monday. Kathimerini

US closes Yemen embassy, following Somalia, Syria and Libya

Violence in Sanaa, the capital city in Yemen, has been increasing
after the al-Houthi ethnic group completed its coup last week, and
took complete control of Yemen's government. Anti-Houthi demonstrations have been growing, and
Houthi militias have been using force to disperse crowds. The
al-Houthis are an Iran-backed Shia militia, and their slogan is: "God
is the Greatest. Death to America. Death to Israel. Damn the Jew and
Victory to Islam."

Fearing an assault, the U.S. on Tuesday closed its embassy in Sanaa
and evacuated all personnel. As soon as U.S. officials left the
capital, the Houthis seized more than 20 vehicles from the evacuated
embassy.

Yemen is the home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which
the U.S. has been fighting with the cooperation of the preceding
government. It's not clear whether the new al-Houthi government will
agree to continued attacks on AQAP, particularly the drone strikes,
but the al-Houthis themselves also would like to see AQAP defeated.

Yemen becomes the third Arab country to lose its American embassy
since December 2010, when the "Arab spring" began, creating turmoil in
one country after another throughout the Mideast. The Syrian war
forced the closure of the US embassy in Damascus in February 2012, and
the dissolution of Libya's government forced the closure of the
embassy in Tripoli in July 2014.

On January 8, 1991, looters in the army of the government of Somalia
fired rocket grenades in the capital city Mogadishu, leading to the
famous "Blackhawk down" incident. The U.S. embassy was closed, and
all diplomats and employees were evacuated. In July of last year,
President Obama appointed Omar Abdirashid Ali Shamarke to be the first
U.S. ambassador to Somalia since 1991. However, Sharmarke will work
out of the American embassy in Nairobi, Kenya. AP and U.S. State Dept. and ABC News (14-Jul-2014) and LA Times (8-Jan-1991)

Citigroup: Oil could plunge to $20 per barrel

After falling during the last year from over $100 per barrel down to
below $45 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil
has record to around $52 per barrel. However, Citigroup analysts say
that the current price is unsustainable, and that we'll soon see oil
fall well below $40 per barrel, and perhaps as low as in the $20's
range for a while, possibly triggering the collapse of OPEC.

The reasons for the continuing plunge in oil prices are:

The U.S. shale oil (fracking) revolution, with U.S. drillers
pumping 9.21 million barrels a day, the most since 1983.

The result will be an global oversupply of about 2 million barrels
a day in the first half of 2015.

U.S. crude inventories expanded to 413.1 million barrels, the
highest since records were kept in 1982.

Oil supply will probably exceed demand by 700,000 barrels a day in
the first quarter and 800,000 barrels a day in the second
quarter.

The result is that oil storage is "heading toward the tank-tops,"
meaning that storage space is running out, and the oversupply will
push prices down substantially. Bloomberg

On February 24, 1990, after a drastic fall in oil prices, Iran accused
Saudi Arabia of being party to a Western plot against Iran. At that
time, Iran and Iraq were still at a state of war, and Iran threatened
to confiscate oil shipments to Iraq that pass through the Strait of
Hormuz. Iran demanded that the Saudis conform to the demands of the
oil cartel OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).

Two weeks ago, the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei, renewed that threat, by repeating part of it in a tweet,
saying that "crashing oil prices ... is a blow against Islamic and
independent nations," and promising to "answer a blow with a blow."

According to a state-sponsored editorial:

"Iran, as the center of Islamic awakening, shows
tremendous patience in [its] foreign policy... But the anger of
this patient element has irreversible consequences for the Aal
Saud family and their allies in the region, from Aal Nahyan [the
UAE royal family] to Aal Khalifa [the Bahraini royal
family]. Beware of the patient ones. Saudi Arabia must not depend
on sunny days – on the contrary, it must prepare for a stormy
day... The nations of the region will not forget the Arab leaders'
betrayal by means of reducing oil prices, and revenge will be a
minimal punishment for this strategic mistake by Saudi Arabia.

Today, all the arteries of oil transport – from Bab-el-Mandeb
strait to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz – are under
Iranian control, by means of Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, and within
range of Iranian missiles. If the need arises, the nations of the
region will be informed of Saudi Arabia's and its allies'
despicable collaboration with the Zionist regime..."

Iran has recently been bragging that they now have control of the
capital cities in four other countries -- Lebanon, Syria, Iraq,
and most recently Yemen. The Supreme Leader now wants to leverage
that control by threatening oil transport throughout the region,
in order to raise oil prices.

With the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II, and his replacement
by King Salman, the Saudis have been indecisive in reacting to the
takeover of Yemen by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis. Saudi Arabia has
contributed some $4 billion in aid to Yemen since 2011. That aid was
largely suspended in December after Houthis took control. Now the
Saudis have to decide whether to go further and intervene militarily,
which would raise the conflict with Iran to an even higher level.

Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia are extremely vitriolic. When the
news of King Abdullah's death broke, an Iranian state-sponsored
news agency published a cartoon welcoming him to hell:

Iran cartoon on King Abdullah's death: Left devil: 'Welcome'; right devil: 'The Master in the furnace of hell' (Memri)

After Abdullah's death, a top Iranian advisor called on the new King
Salman to change policies: "As for King Salman's desire for an
Israeli-Palestinian peace – this is impossible, because the Zionists
need to leave the occupied lands..." Memri and
Al-Jazeera

More on the growing Muslim versus Muslim wars

I received a number of reader responses to yesterday's article on
Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism, and the point that Islam is at war with itself, not with
the West. There are no Muslim countries or Muslim armies attacking
the West, but there are a number of Muslim armies and militias
attacking and killing thousands of other Muslims, including Muslim
women and children.

Most of the questions were of the following sort: "Why can't Muslims
be at war with other Muslims AND with the West?"

The answer really is "No".

It's certainly true that Osama bin Laden was at war with the West, as
were a number of Saudi jihadists. Other jihadists groups would like
to be at war with the West, but they're too bogged down killing other
Muslims to attack the West. That's the point. For example, I'm sure
the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) would like
to wage war against the West, but they'll never get the opportunity
because they'll never defeat all the Muslim armies around them,
without a world war. No Muslim army could possibly have the resources
to fight other Muslim armies and the West at the same time.

As I've been saying for years, we're headed for a world war where the
Saudis will be our enemy, aligned with Pakistan and China, and Iran
will be our ally, aligned with Russia and India. It will never be the
case that "Islam is at war with the West," but it will be like World
Wars I and II, where we were at war with some Muslim armies and allied
with other Muslim armies, and that will be bad enough.

Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism are nonsense

Bill O'Reilly's facts that prove that Islam is at war with the West

Islam is not at war with the West. Islam is at war with itself, as
I've written several times. There
is a massive, historic war of Muslims versus Muslims that is growing
every week. Things like the Charlie Hebdo attack are only for
recruiting and fund raising. Countries include: Yemen, Libya, Syria,
Iraq, Somalia, Mali, Nigeria-Niger-Cameroon-Chad, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Bangladesh. ISIS armies are not attacking the West; they're
slaughtering tens of thousands of Muslims. It's the most important
development going on today.

On Friday, I watched Bill O'Reilly's show on the Fox News Channel,
where the subject under discussion was Islam's war on the West, and
that Islamic extremism is an existential threat to America. O'Reilly
said that it was, and he promised that he "had the facts." I was
quite curious to know what "facts" he had, so I stayed tuned.

The "facts" are summarized in the graphic shown above, based on a Pew
Research poll. He said that this graphic showed that "a significant
minority of Muslims do support violent terrorism." He read off the
stats, and ended with: "and in Bangladesh a whopping 47% of Muslims
support suicide bombing against CIVILIANs."

Are you kidding me? Does O'Reilly or anyone else believe that
Bangladeshis care about a suicide bombing in the West, or that they'd
even pay attention if one occurred? These people struggle every day
just to feed their kids, and couldn't care less what happens in the
West.

Now, I doubt that anyone on O'Reilly's staff knows even a single fact
about Bangladesh, including how to find it on a map, and that would
explain their silly conclusion. To illustrate, here's a two-day-old
news story:

"Nine killed in Bangladesh fire bomb attacks on bus,
truck

DHAKA Sat Feb 7, 2015 1:36am EST

(Reuters) - At least nine people, including two children, were
burned alive in Bangladesh when opposition activists hurled petrol
bombs at a packed bus and a truck in the latest spasm of worsening
political violence, police said on Saturday. ...

At least 70 people have been killed and hundreds injured in
violence over the past month, including the latest deaths in arson
attacks overnight."

This is day to day life in Dhaka. In 2009, I wrote a lengthy article about violence in
Bangladesh, that began:

"76 Bangladesh army officers were mutilated and killed
last week by men under their command. The massacre, which occurred
over a 33 hour period on February 25-26, has shocked the country
for its brutality. Bodies of officers and their wives were
mutilated and piled into mass graves. Security forces have
arrested hundreds of guards, including many who fled to towns and
cities across the country."

In 1971, Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) fought an extremely bloody
and genocidal civil war between two Muslim ethnic groups -- the
Urdu-speaking Biharis from the upper castes of Indian society, versus
the indigenous Bengali-speaking Bengalis, from the "untouchable"
castes of India.

Although the war ended, the hatred continues between these two
ethnic groups, and today there are still calls for violence by
one side against the other. That ALWAYS happens after a civil
war.

In fact, it sometimes happens in countries where there's been no civil
war. I remember America in the 1960s, I remember the "long hot
summers" of violent riots, and I remember the bombings and calls for
violence from groups like the Weather Underground. During "the
Troubles" in Ireland, both Catholics and Protestants were calling for
violence. Today in Mexico, you have drug cartels slaughtering
civilians and calling for violence, and we needn't be reminded that
these people are Christians, not Muslims.

The point is that if you take a bunch of poll results, as O'Reilly
did, and claim to have the "facts" about something, then you're
talking nonsense. When a person's wife and children are slaughtered
by someone else, that person will want revenge. That's a human
emotion, whether the person is a Muslim, a Buddhist, a Hindu, a Jew or
a Christian.

I'll discuss one more item on O'Reilly's list: "Muslims in Palestinian
territories -- 46%." Here we have to be reminded about some facts
that a lot of people don't want to hear. The Gaza Palestinians
believe themselves to be Israeli's prisoners, and in last summer's
Gaza war, thousands of Palestinian women and children were killed by
Israeli airstrikes. These airstrikes may have been completely
justified by the tunnels and weapons stores, but that doesn't matter
to the people whose family members were killed, and who now seek
revenge. But it doesn't mean that Islam is at war with the West. It
means that the Palestinians are at war with the Israelis, and there's
little doubt that that's true, and that explains the Pew poll
statistic.

Islam is NOT at war with the West. ISIS armies are fighting Muslims,
not Westerners. In country after country, Muslims are at war, almost
always with other Muslims. That's a completely different thing, and
it's extremely dangerous because sooner or later we'll be pulled into
it, whether we like it or not. We should try to understand that,
instead of referencing irrelevant poll statistics. Reuters and Pew Report (PDF)

Nigeria and Boko Haram declare war after election postponement

Nigeria's government has caused an international uproar by Saturday's
announcement to postpone the February 14 presidential elections for
six weeks, until March 28. The reason given was threats by Boko Haram
to disrupt the election with terror attacks. However, the Muslim
opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, is accusing the government of
using the Boko Haram threat as an excuse to gain time in order to keep
the Christian president, Goodluck Jonathan, in office for another
term.

Nigeria had an extremely bloody civil war between 1967 and 1970, that
pitted Christians versus Muslims and ethnic groups against each other.
In order to avoid further violence, officials in 1979 adopted an
informal rule that the office of president would alternate between a
Christian and a Muslim, with two 4-year terms each. This rule was
followed until 2010, when Jonathan took over as head of state after
the death of the Muslim president Umaru Yar'Adua, who was part way
through his first term. Jonathan then won the next election in 2011,
and so a Christian has been president almost continually since 1999.

So the Muslim opposition now suspects that the purpose of the election
postponement is to give Jonathan a way to gain time to win the
election, possibly through fraudulent means.

Indeed, many people are wondering what good the six-week extension
will be at all. Nigeria's army has totally failed to bring Boko Haram
under control for six years, so what good will another six weeks do?

The army responds that things have changed recently, and that they're
now getting plenty of international help from Cameroon, Niger, Benin
and Chad, and that the combined effort of 7,000 troops could bring
violence "to a level that will allow for a free and fair election."

However, Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, issued a video on
Monday, effectively declaring war on the international coalition.

"Your alliance will not achieve anything. Amass all
your weapons and face us. We welcome you. ... You send 7,000
troops? Why don't you send 70 million? This is small. Only 7,000?
By Allah, it is small. We can seize them one-by-one. We can seize
them one-by-one."

The fear is that the next six weeks will see increased violence in
Nigeria's northeast, forcing another election delay and, in the worst
scenario, bringing about a new military coup. BBC and Deutsche Welle and AFP

30 dead in Cairo Egypt as soccer fans clash with police

Pickup truck in flames during Sunday's clashes between football fans and police (AP)

Authorities are concerned about widespread riots and demonstrations
after 30 people died and dozens were injured in clashes with police at
a football (soccer) game in Cairo on Sunday, when hundreds of football
fans tried to enter the stadium without buying tickets. Police fired
teargas and birdshot to disperse the crowd. Most of the deaths were
due to suffocation, while other were killed in a stampede after the
police fired teargas.

Young football fans in Cairo, known as Ultras, have become highly
politicized. Football fan clubs joined together in Tahrir Square in
2011 to bring about the ouster of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak.
When the army took over, the Ultras demonstrated against the army.
Then they demonstrated against the Muslim Brotherhood, during the days
of president Mohamed Morsi. Now the fear is of major demonstrations
and riots against the former general and current president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi.

Sunday's incident is certainly going to renew the widespread criticism
of the police in an incident that occurred on February 2, 2012, at a
football match in Port Said, when fans of two opposing football clubs
were killed in clashes with each other.

The attackers were mostly fans of the home team, the al-Masry football
club, while the victims were Cairo Ultras, fans of the visiting team,
Cairo's Al-Ahly football club, a group that had actively taken part in
the Tahrir Square protests during 2011, and the suspicion is
widespread that police were responsible for the violence, in order to
get revenge against the Ultras. There were plenty of riot police
present at the game, but video shows that they allowed the violence to
continue without interference, and they may even have aided the
violence by blocking the escape route of the victims.

After the 2012 incident, Egyptian football matches were closed to
spectators, a ban which was only just recently lifted. Egypt's
cabinet has now decided to suspend all football game indefinitely.

There are hundreds of thousands of politically active Ultras, and it's
now thought that it's almost certain that they'll be returning to
Tahrir Square for anti-government and anti-police demonstrations. How
far these demonstrations will probably depends mostly on how
skillfully and transparently they handle the investigation of Sunday's
incident. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

Greece's new radical left-wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras appears
to be approaching a head-on clash with the Eurogroup, the eurozone
finance ministers, when they all meet on Wednesday.

On Sunday, Tsipras gave his maiden speech to Greece's parliament. He
repeated his plan to increase government spending, and he repeated his
demand that Europe continue to fund Greece's increased spending by
billions of dollars. In particular, he's asking Europe to provide a
"bridge loan" to support the increased spending through June, to give
Greece and the Europeans time to negotiate revised bailout terms that
will allow the increased spending to continue into the future.

He's also demanding World War II reparations from Germany for the
damages brought by the Nazis. He called it, "A moral obligation to
our people, to history, to all Europeans who fought and gave their
blood against Nazism." Germany has already firmly refused to consider
reparations.

In his speech, Tsipras announced the following new and revived
spending programs:

Humanitarian measures will include free food, electricity,
shelter and medicine for families that have been hurt by the economic
crisis.

The Greek radio and television network (ERT) will be recreated
after it was shut down by the previous government. Laid off
government employees, including school guards and cleaners, will have
their jobs restored.

There will be a return to employees' rights, including
restoration of collective bargaining and protection from layoffs.
The minimum wage will be increased.

Previous increases in retirement age and reductions in pensions
will be reversed.

Offsetting these spending increases, Tsipras promised to reduce
corruption and tax evasion, and also to sell off half of all
government limousines. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

Iannis Xenakis's 1977 work "Kottos" for cello will be performed on
Thursday at Harvard University. Like other works by Iannis, it's not
exactly melodic. The composer himself describes it as follows: "In
general: the sounds, except for the harmonics, should not be beautiful
or nice in the usual sense, but rough, harsh and full of noise."
(Iannis Xenakis (1922-2001) is my first cousin - father's brother's
son.)

It's roughness comes because it echoes the conflict between Communists
and Nazis in Greece during World War II. In the 1940s, Iannis was a
member of ELAS, the Communist-led Greek resistance, helping to drive
the Nazis from Greece. The subsequent British occupation and the
conservative Greek monarchy turned against ELAS; Iannis, having
survived a British shell that destroyed his eye and shattered his
face, fled. The Greek government sentenced him to death in absentia.
He settled in Paris, working as an architect and, then, a composer.

In Greek mythology, Kottos was giant with a hundred arms and 50 heads.
Kottos fought in the massive war between Zeus and the Titans. Like
Iannis, Kottos was imprisoned and exiled. Iannis' cello composition
echoes both of those stories.

If we look at the trends in Greece over the past five years or so, we
can see the same trend lines emerging as in World War II. The radical
far left party Syriza is governing Greece today, aligning with Russia
and mocking the Germans. At the same time, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn
party has been gaining strength in the last two years, despite the
fact that several of its leaders are in jail for corruption and
murder. Greece's relationship with its European lenders, especially
Germany, is currently in crisis, and with a new bond payment due at
the end of February, the crisis may be about the worsen substantially.

As I've been writing for years since the Greek fiscal crisis began,
there is no solution. By that I don't mean that we haven't been
clever enough to find a solution. I mean that, as with many of
today's world problems, no solution exists. Greece, Germany and
Europe are headed for an inevitable tragedy which they've inflicted on
themselves, and even though we can see it coming, we can't stop it.
Extrapolating these trends, we can see that the war between Zeus and
the Titans will be fought once more. Boston Globe and Xenakis Project of the Americas

Greek Tragedy and Generational Dynamics

I've found that few non-Greeks really understand what tragedy is
about. As a Greek I know that a sense of tragedy is in my
bones. Tragedy as an art form was invented in ancient Greece, and
three of four great tragic artists of all time were Aeschylus,
Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece, with the fourth being
Shakespeare.

What tragedy does is to bring order out of seeming random events.
Many people misunderstand the deepest meanings of tragedy. If a child
is killed in a random traffic accident, then it's a terrible event but
it's not a tragedy in the classical sense, because of that randomness.

The essence of classical tragedy is that the tragic event is not
random. The tragic event is inevitable: it MUST occur, and the reason
it must occur is because of the nature, the personality, the character
of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be prevented, even by
those who foresee it, because the forces bringing about the tragedy
are too powerful for anyone to stop.

Like the child killed in a random traffic accident, the protagonists
of a true tragedy have a great future before them, and in the Greek
view, perhaps even a heroic future. But the heroic future turns into
disaster because the players in the true tragedy move step by step
towards that disaster; and all of us on the outside can see it coming,
because these particular players are uniquely capable of inflicting
this disaster on one another.

The war between Zeus and the Titans could not be prevented. The war
between the Nazis and the Communists in Greece in WW II could be
foreseen, but could not be prevented. Today, the growing conflict
between Greece and Germany once again is completely foreseeable, but
can't be prevented, because no solution exists. In each case, it's
the nature, the character of the participants that leads them
inexorably to inflict a horrible tragic disaster on each other.

It would not be wrong to describe the Generational Dynamics web site
as displaying the greatest tragic play in human history. The
countries of the world -- the US, China, Greece, Israel, Iran,
Pakistan, India, Russia, etc. -- are all moving towards a tragic
disaster that only they are uniquely capable of inflicting on one
another. The script for this play is being written in the daily World
View articles. Nothing can be done to prevent this tragic disaster,
but through Generational Dynamics we have a way of standing on the
outside, and watching it arrive, step by step by step.

Nigeria postpones national elections because of Boko Haram

Nigeria's electoral commission has postponed the February 14
presidential elections by six weeks, in view of threats of further
terrorist attacks by Boko Haram. The US State Dept. says that Boko
Haram has become extremely wealthy and has large storehouses of
weapons, and it's hard to see how the security situation will improve
in six weeks. It's feared that Nigeria is on a path that will
inevitably cause it to join other countries, including Somalia, Libya,
Central African Republic, and Yemen, that are disintegrating before
our eyes. Nigeria Tribune and BBC

Gulf Arabs condemn Houthi takeover of Yemen

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations has condemned
the Houthi takeover of Yemen as "a grave and unacceptable escalation
[that] endangers the security, stability, sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Yemen." The GCC said its own security was linked to that
of Yemen and vowed to take "all the necessary measures to defend their
interests." Arab News

Central African Republic refugees plow a small plot of land for food (UN)

Two former presidents of the Central African Republic (CAR) signed a
"peace agreement" in a meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, several days ago.
One was Francois Bozizé, the Christian former president, who was
ousted in a coup in March 2013 by the other participant, Michel
Djotodia, the Muslim former president, who served until January 2014.
The ceremony was kind of laughable, since the agreement was
meaningless from the moment it was signed.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka
militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the
Christian constituencies of the deposed Francois Bozizé. In December
2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the
Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed
into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Selekas.

Throughout 2014, various African Union and United Nations committees
and conferences have been looking for ways to bring the violence to an
end. On Thursday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon asked the Security
Council to approve 1,030 more peacekeepers to bring the total to
nearly 13,000. Just to put that number in perspective, the NY City
police department has over 34,000 uniformed officers for just one
city, while CAR is an enormous country the size of France. However,
NY City has 8 million people, while CAR has 5 million.

However, considering the situation in CAR, 13,000 peacekeepers is far
too few. According to the UN, 438,000 people in are displaced within
CAR, more than 423,000 people have fled to Cameroon, Chad, and the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and 2.5 million people are in
urgent need of humanitarian assistance.

Michel Djotodia was interviewed by the BBC on Thursday and asked if he
would be able to return to Bangui, the capital city, and take part in
elections planned for later this year (my transcription of
simultaneous translation):

"The conditions are not right. I can't.

The provisional government is having trouble protecting even the
palace in Bangui. So what would I do? I can't return. There
must be some security. That's why I'm here - to try and bring back
peace and security to the country.

But the people don't want it. First of all, there aren't even any
institutions in CAR. The state as such no longer exists. The
army has disappeared. The police doesn't exist. Justice is on
its knees. All these state institutions have practically
vanished.

One, how can anyone claim that we're ready for elections? Two,
the majority of Central Africans are outside the country. How can
we organize elections? You'd have to take the ballot boxes on
your head to Chad, Cameroon, and France, so that people could
vote. Do you find that normal? It would make a mockery of CAR's
people."

The United Nations and Djotodia together describe a disintegrated
country in total chaos. Most of the peacekeeping forces are
concentrated around the capital city Bangui, and even there are not
keeping much peace. The Muslim Selekas are mostly in control of the
east, while the Christian anti-balaka militias are mostly in the west.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is in a
generational crisis war, and it won't end until it's fully run its
course, and reaches a climax.

CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis
war is inevitable.

The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French
colonialists, but it also had its share of the same kind of tribal
violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends,
the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were
perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives
to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or
grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have
passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the
last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from
starting, and that's what's happening now.

Many people are surprised at this narrative, mainly because they've
never heard of the Kongo-Wara Rebellion. But just as young Americans
today have heard of World War II, you can be sure that young people in
CAR today, both Muslims and Christians, have heard of the Kongo-Wara
Rebellion. And these young people know nothing of the horrors of that
war. What the Muslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war
heroes because they killed thousands of French and Christians, while
the Christians have heard that their great-grandfathers were even
bigger heroes, because they slaughtered even more Muslims.

So, the French Foreign Legion and the United Nations and African Union
peacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on the current war, but
nothing will stop it now. All Africa and
Bloomberg and United Nations
and Reuters

Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks towns in Niger, as war expands into region

Nigeria's terrorist group Boko Haram invaded Niger on Friday,
attacking two towns in a part of Niger that is already home to tens of
thousands of refugees who have fled Boko Haram attacks back in
Nigeria. On Wednesday and Thursday, Boko Haram attack a town
in Cameroon, leaving nearly 100 dead and 500 wounded.

The Boko Haram insurgency is rapidly becoming an international war,
with Cameroon, Niger, Chad and Benin all having pledged to send troops
to fight Boko Haram. AP

Houthis complete takeover coup in Yemen

After several days of large anti-Houthi public demonstrations, often
violently disrupted by Houthi officials, the minority Houthis have
completed their coup and taken complete control of Yemen's government
in Sanaa, replacing the elected parliament with a military council
completely controlled by the Houthis.

The Shia Houthis are thought to be supported by Iran. They now have
control of northern Yemen, but Sunni tribes in central and southern
Yemen are not expected to accede to their control. These include the
moderate Islamist Islah party, backed by Saudi Arabia, Al-Qaeda on the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the secessionist groups in Yemen's
Southern Movement.

The main concern now is that tensions among these groups will spiral
into a civil war, joining the growing war engulfing the Mideast that
I've been talking about for weeks. Probably the best scenario that
can be hoped for is that Yemen will quietly become a disintegrated
state, joining Libya, Syria and Iraq, joining Somalia and Central
African Republic in Africa, with Nigeria on the horizon.

The previous government had depended on aid from Saudi Arabia to pay
salaries. That aid is being cut off, and so the next crisis may be
unable to pay salaries in one of the poorest countries in the world.
Yemen Online and VOA and BBC

Mideast war widens as Jordan vows to destroy ISIS

Jordanians chant slogans to show support for government action against ISIS, carrying posters of the slain pilot and of King Abdullah II (AP)

For months I've been describing the Muslim versus Muslim war that has
been growing throughout the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia.
This week, the Mideast war has widened as Jordan begins to take
revenge against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL).

Two days after a video emerged showing Jordanian pilot Muath
al-Kaseasbeh being burned alive, Jordan has apparently declared
all-out war on ISIS. Jordan began with airstrikes on Thursday,
targeting ISIS training centers and arms and ammunition depots, in an
air mission named "Muath the Martyr."

The military, in statement directed at ISIS read on state TV, said,
"This is the beginning and you will get to know the Jordanians."
Other messages called ISIS the "enemies of Islam."

Jordan's foreign minister Nasser Judeh said: "We said we are going to
take this all the way, we are going to go after them wherever they are
and we're doing that." This means that Jordan will be conducting air
strikes in Iraq, as well as in Syria as before. The United States
military is cooperating by speeding up arms deliveries and by moving
search and rescue capabilities from Kuwait to Iraq.

The mood in Jordan has changed substantially. Last week, the
population was split between wanting to stay in the American-led
coalition and those wanting to withdraw completely. This week, the
public seems to be united in favor of revenge. The National (UAE) and CNN and
AP

The following information was apparently obtained: names, dates of
birth, member ID/ social security numbers, addresses, phone numbers,
email addresses and employment information. Medical information
was not obtained.

Unfortunately, there is no time limit on this exposure. Once hackers
have your social security number and other information, they can use
it for identity theft at any time in the future.

If you are potentially affected by the breach, you should go to the
Anthem Inc. data breach FAQ
and take steps to protect yourself. Anthem is offering its
customers a free identity theft protection service.

Anthem says that they have a "state of the art security system," but
that seems to be a joke right about now. One problem is that social
security numbers, birth dates and other information were stored in the
data base in clear text. If that information had been stored in
encrypted form, then it would be useless to hackers. But, as an IT
professional and a Senior Software Engineer, I know from my personal
experience and the experience of friends that trying to convince
management to encrypt this data is liable to get you admonished or
fired. Something like that probably happened at Anthem, and now 80
million people will have to pay the price. As in other industries,
stupidity has no limits in the computer industry. USA Today and Wired and Anthem Inc.

Terrorists attack school, part of growing violence in Karachi Pakistan

Jordan's King vows 'relentless' war on ISIS 'on their own ground'

The European Central Bank turns the screws on Greece's banks

Terrorists attack school, part of growing violence in Karachi Pakistan

Warning letter left by terrorists after bombing Karachi school on Tuesday

Seven terrorists riding motorcycles hurled hand grenades at a school
in the port city of Karachi in Pakistan. The school was damaged, but
there were no casualties. Before leaving, the terrorists left a
threat letter (shown above) saying that this attack was only a
beginning, and that "the flames of war WILL intensify and engulf your
homes!"

The attack was emblematic of the daily violence that occurs in
Karachi, making it possibly the most dangerous megacity in the world.
The massive terror attack on a Shia mosque that I reported on a couple of days ago took place in a
Karachi suburb. There were at least 1,135 fatalities in 2014 from
terror attacks in Karachi. Although many of them could be classified
as ordinary gang warfare, many of the attacks are also sectarian in
nature. Pakistan's government has repeatedly promised to fight
terrorism, but despite terrorist activity is increasing throughout
Pakistan, authorities have done little.

Jordan's King vows 'relentless' war on ISIS 'on their own ground'

In the aftermath of the video by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL) depicting the barbaric murder of Jordan's pilot
Muath al-Kaseasbeh, Jordan's King Abdullah II has promised a
"relentless" war:

"We are waging this war to protect our faith, our
values and human principles and our war for their sake will be
relentless and will hit them in their own ground."

Two jihadists in Jordan's jails, previously convicted and sentenced to
death, were executed by hanging on Wednesday morning. However, the
father of the murdered pilot, who belongs to a powerful tribe in
Jordan that is close to the king, said that wasn't enough:

"I demand none of them amongst us be kept alive. I
demand the revenge be greater than executing prisoners. I demand
the ISIL organization be annihilated.

This murderous organization, made up of militants from all the
world countries, is acting in barbaric ways, violating all the
international laws, codes of ethics, and prisoners'
conventions. That is why I strongly demand the government to
swiftly take revenge for the blood of Moaz and the dignity of our
country."

Public opinion in Jordan, which last week seemed to favor withdrawing
Jordan from the anti-ISIS coalition, now appears to have undergone a
complete reversal. Al Jazeera and Reuters

The European Central Bank turns the screws on Greece's banks

Greece's new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, part of the Syriza
government of radical left-wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras, is
telling anyone who will listen that Greece will not be meeting its
austerity commitments that it made in return for receiving 240 billion
euros of bailout money paid so far, and that it will inaugurate new
spending programs.

With Greece on a collision course with Europe, the European Central
Bank (ECB) has taken the first step to isolate Greece financially. As
part of the previous bailout negotiations, the ECB had implemented a
waiver that would allow Greek banks to borrow money from the ECB using
Greek bonds as collateral, despite the fact that Greek bonds are "junk
bonds" with little investment value. On Wednesday, the ECB announced
that it was lifting that waiver, and so Greek's banks may no longer
use Greek bonds as collateral.

Greek banks are already in trouble. During December alone, 4.6
billion euros in deposits were withdrawn from Greek banks and
deposited in banks in other countries. A full-scale bank run is
feared.

There is another way that Greece can borrow from the ECB, the
Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. The ELA is considerably
more expensive, but it doesn't require collateral. Kathimerini and ECB Press Release

Japan's nationalism surges over ISIS killings of two Japanese hostages

Analysts are puzzled by ISIS's burning alive of Jordan's pilot

Muath al-Kaseasbeh, drenched in gasoline, watches as the flames approach his cage to burn him alive, in screen grab from ISIS video. (Memri)

On Tuesday, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL)
released a 22:34 minute video that portrays Jordan's pilot Muath
al-Kaseasbeh being locked in a cage and burned alive. Jordan is part
of the coalition conducting air strikes on ISIS, and al-Kaseasbeh was
captured by ISIS several weeks ago.

A number of analysts on Tuesday expressed surprise that ISIS committed
this atrocity. Al-Kaseasbeh was a very high-value hostage, a member
of a leading tribe in Jordan. His value was second only to the value
of a captured American pilot, if one should occur. ISIS could have
leveraged al-Kaseasbeh for many things, including millions of dollars
in ransom money and the release of scores of terrorists in Jordan's
jails, in exchange for his release. Also, Jordan's involvement in the
American coalition against ISIS was becoming increasingly unpopular in
Jordan, and ISIS might have even been able to force Jordan to withdraw
from the coalition. In fact, Jordan stopped taking part in the
anti-ISIS airstrikes since the pilot was captured.

There are reports of a split within ISIS between factions that wanted
to kill the pilot and the factions that wanted to use him for
negotiating leverage. However, analysts are saying that it appears
that the pilot was actually killed some time ago, possibly on January
3, so negotiating was never a serious option. Obviously, the winners
in ISIS were the factions that wanted not only to kill him, but to
kill him in as barbaric a way as possible. What was the motivation?

The analysts I heard point out that every time ISIS posts a video of
this sort, the number of recruits joining ISIS surges. Thousands of
young men and women from around the world have been traveling to Syria
to join the ISIS bloodbath, and this video will bring more. These
would-be jihadists are mostly used as cannon fodder in ISIS's war
against other Muslims in Syria and Iraq.

The ISIS strategy has to be seen in the context of the reality that
ISIS is facing. As I've been describing for weeks, there is a growing
Muslim versus Muslim war in the
Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, and ISIS is one of the armies
fighting in that war. ISIS's armies are not fighting Europeans or
Israelis; they're fighting and killing Muslims. For ISIS to succeed,
it needs an even bigger army. Negotiating with Jordan for the release
of the pilot would have done nothing to increase the size of the ISIS
army. Burning him alive in a barbaric fashion as a PR stunt will have
that result. MEMRI

Jordan promises revenge against ISIS for killing pilot

Analysts on Tuesday were speculating whether the barbaric
killing of Jordan's pilot would cause Jordan's public to demand
that the government get revenge, or demand that the government
withdraw from the anti-ISIS coalition. As of this writing on
Tuesday evening ET, it seems clear that Jordan is committed to
revenge.

Actions that Jordan might take include the following:

Immediate execution of ISIS terrorists in Jordan's jails.
In understand that there are four of these, and they've all already
been sentenced to death, so they may be executed quickly.

Heavier airstrikes against ISIS. Greater participation in the
American-led coalition. Use of Jordan's Special Forces on the ground
in Syria and Iraq.

Full-scale invasion by Jordan's army to fight ISIS on the ground
in Syria and Iraq. However, this step is considered
unlikely.

During the America's war with Vietnam in the 1960s-70s, whenever the
North Vietnamese committed some atrocity, such as burning down a
village and slaughtering all the women and children, or committing
atrocities against American soldiers, these acts would fuel the
American anti-war movement, and bring cheers from the likes of John
Kerry and Jane Fonda. America was then in a generational Awakening
era, one generation past the end of World War II, when nationalism is
typically at a low point. But Jordan today is in a generational
Crisis era, and we've reported in the past how nationalism is
increasing in countries around the world, including the U.S., Europe
and China. Anti-war movements gain little traction at such times, so
it's not surprising that those wanting revenge in Jordan are having
their way today. VOA and Time

Japan's nationalism surges over ISIS killings of two Japanese hostages

ISIS was embroiled in another hostage drama in recent days, having
abducted Japanese journalist Kenji Goto and his friend Haruna Yukawa.
ISIS demanded $200 million in ransom for the freedom of the two
hostages, even though it was clear that no sum that large would ever
be paid. In retrospect, it appears that ISIS had no intention of
freeing the two Japanese than it had to free Jordan's pilot, under any
circumstances.

So when ISIS released videos in the last few days showing the
beheadings of the two hostages, prime minister Shinzo Abe reacted with
outrage, promising "to make the terrorists pay the price." He added:

"No country is completely safe from terrorism. How do
we cut the influence of ISIS, and put a stop to extremism? Japan
must play its part in achieving this."

Abe's statement seems straightforward enough, but in fact it appears
to mark a watershed in Japan's military policy. After being defeated
in World War II, Japan adopted a constitution that permitted the
military to be used only for self-defense. The U.S. has been
pressuring Japan for decades to increase its military budget, to take
on a greater share of responsibility for its own defense, and to
participate more in multilateral, global security operations by
committing self-defense forces.

Japan has resisted for decades. It was thought that only a major
military confrontation with China or North Korea would cause Japan to
reverse its policy. But now, ISIS seems to have accomplished
something that the US couldn't accomplish. The beheadings of the two
hostages have infuriated the Japanese people and increased nationalism
to the extent that they may now support greater military commitments
abroad.

Over the weekend, a Japanese diplomat said:

"This is 9/11 for Japan. It is time for Japan to stop
daydreaming that its good will and noble intentions would be
enough to shield it from the dangerous world out there. Americans
have faced this harsh reality; the French have faced it, and now
we are, too."

This reference to 9/11 is interesting because 9/11 was also cited
frequently in past weeks in reference to the Charlie Hebdo terror
attacks in Paris. 9/11 has become a symbol in one country after
another to describe an event that turns the country around to cause a
surge in nationalism and willingness to use the military. (In
generational theory, these are called "regeneracy events," because
they regenerate civic unity for the first time since end of the
preceding crisis war.) Any country is susceptible to such popular
reversals during a generational Crisis era.

What was particularly infuriating to the Japanese people was that ISIS
gave as a reason for beheading Goto that Japan was a member of the
American-led coalition against ISIS. The reason that this is
infuriating is that Japan was NOT a member of the coalition, and could
not have been a member because of the country's constitutional
restrictions on the military to defense only. However, Japan did
offer $200 million in humanitarian aid to countries fighting ISIS.
KForce NightWatch and NY Times

China builds more man-made islands in the South China Sea

Satellite picture of China's man-made island, November 2014 (Janes)

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. In addition to building oil rigs
and taking control of fishing grounds in other countries' territories,
China has been building man-made islands to use as military bases and
landing strips. China has claimed the entire South China Sea,
including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by
almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to
the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing
that they would lose. Instead, China is becoming increasingly
belligerent militarily, annexing other nations' territories, and
militarizing the entire sea. This is exactly the behavior that the
Nazis used, leading to World War II.

China has already created a new island nearly 2 miles long and several
hundred yards wide. China is rapidly building five man-made islands
from tiny reefs and shoals in the South China Sea. These islands will
be used to for military operations, including combat and support
aircraft, when the inevitable day arrives that China's seizures of
other countries' territories leads to a military confrontation that
could spiral into war. LA Times and Janes Defense Weekly

Pentagon would welcome Japan air patrols in the South China Sea

With China becoming more and more militarily belligerent in
the South China Sea, a Pentagon official said that the U.S.
would welcome Japanese air patrols over the South China Sea.
According to Admiral Robert Thomas:

"I think allies, partners and friends in the region
will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function.
In the South China Sea, frankly, the Chinese fishing fleet, the
Chinese coastguard and the (navy) overmatch their neighbors. I
think that JSDF (Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces) operations in
the South China Sea makes sense in the future."

However, the State Dept. and the Pentagon may be in disagreement over
this idea. State Department spokesman Jen Psaki said, "We’re not
aware of any plans or proposals for Japan to patrol the South China
Sea. ... It sounds like reports aren’t accurate." Reuters and Japan Times

Jordan returns its ambassador to Israel

On Monday, Jordan announced that its country's ambassador to
Israel Walid Obeidat would be returning to Jordan's embassy
in Tel Aviv.

Obeidat was recalled three months ago at a time of violence in the
Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Temple Mount is the
holiest site in the Jewish religion, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the
third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca and Medina. When violence
forced Israel to shut down access to the Al-Aqsa mosque for two days,
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas called it "tantamount to
a declaration of war," and Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel.
Jordan had said that Israeli practices in Jerusalem were undermining
1994 peace treaty between the two countries. The peace treaty had
reaffirmed Jordanian oversight of Jerusalem's holy sites.

In its announcement on Monday, Jordan's government says it noted a
"positive development" in Israel's stance as 65,000 worshippers now
pray in al-Aqsa Mosque on Fridays. Middle East Eye and Reuters

End of sequestration signals explosive new spending splurge in Washington

The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit

Government receipts plunged when the bubbles burst

The high federal deficit is caused by bubbles bursting, not the Iraq war

End of sequestration signals explosive new spending splurge in Washington

We have governments around the world spending like drunken sailors.
Japan and Europe are planning enormous quantitative easing programs,
and the new radical far-left government in Greece is demanding that
many of its debts be erased so that it can go on a new spending binge.

America's experiment with "sequestration" was truly mind-boggling.
It was proposed by President Obama as a stunt, thinking that
the Republicans would never agree to let it be applied to defense
spending, and then when the Republicans signed on, we could all
enjoy a few rounds of Schadenfreude watching Obama try to squirm
out of it.

What was mind-boggling about it is that it did cap spending in
Washington for a while, something akin to pigs flying, and something
that could only have happened by accident -- in this case the
unexpected outcome of Obama's stunt.

But now many Republicans are pointing to unrest in the Mideast
and the militaristic rise of China with concerns for the defense
budget, while Obama would like to join Greece in going on a new
spending binge.

A major part of that spending binge is on Obamacare, which is a
financial disaster but is being held together with duct tape and
astronomical subsidies. In 2014, 87% of federal Obamacare enrollees
got subsidies. For the silver plan, out of an annual $4,140 premium,
the subsidy amounts to $3,132, leaving the patient only $828 to pay
out of the $4,140. And even with that, a typical deductible is
$5,000-15,000, which means that most of these insured are effectively
uninsured, since they'll have to pay all their own medical expenses
anyway. So there may be more "effectively uninsured" people today
than there were uninsured people in the past.

Then there's CNBC, where the analysts lie constantly about stock
valuations. I used to quote analysts doing this, hoping to name and
shame them. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations" from 2012.) But now criminal fraud is
so entrenched in the culture that no one has any shame. And they're
just taking after the Obama administration that brings criminal
investigations against reporters they don't like, and uses the IRS to
attack political opponents with a level of criminality that goes far
beyond what Richard Nixon ever dreamed of or was threatened with
impeachment for. Congress is just as bad, with massive insider
trading and fraud conducted by both parties and both branches of
Congress, as exposed by former Breitbart editor Peter Schweizer, covered at length on the CBS show
60 Minutes.

By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 31) is still at an
astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

I've been around for a long time, but I never thought I'd live to see
the current massive level of criminality in Washington and on Wall
Street.

With sequestration likely to be thrown out, and a new spending binge
approved in Washington and around the world, this is a good time to go
over some interesting facts about the federal deficit. AP and Guardian (London)

The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit

Federal income, outlays and deficit, 1980 to present (as of November)

We're going to look at the above graph, step by step, to show
where the federal budget deficit comes from.

Almost everybody believes that the large federal budget deficit
was caused by the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nothing could be farther
from the truth. In fact, since the deficit began in the year 2000,
so the Iraq war couldn't have caused it.

So start by looking at the above graph. To begin, focus on the blue
line - government expenditures:

Government spending was $600 billion in 1980, and $3.9
trillion in 2014.

Notice that there is NO BULGE in 2003 at the start of the Iraq
war. Spending increased at the previous rate. That's because there
was no draft, and no new troops were recruited. Troops working on
other projects were reassigned to Iraq, so there was no increase in
expenditures.

Notice that the blue line levels off in 2011. That's because of
sequestration. That's the only time that government spending was
not increasing rapidly.

Government receipts plunged when the bubbles burst

Next, in the above graph, focus on the red line - government income /
tax receipts:

Tax receipts were $340 billion in 1980, and $1.8 trillion in
2014.

Tax receipts plunged in 2000, because of the tech crash in the
stock market. They start to recover in 2004, thanks to the real
estate and credit bubbles. Then they plummet sharply again in 2008,
as the real estate bubble collapses. Tax receipts rise again in 2010,
because of quantitative easing and the new stock market
bubble.

The high federal deficit is caused by bubbles bursting, not the Iraq war

Finally, in the above graph, focus on the green line - government
surplus or deficit (surplus increase upward, deficit increases
downward):

Federal surplus = income - outlays. Deficit = outlays -
income.

The deficit has not been affected by outlays or government
spending, even by spending on the Iraq war.

The deficit went down when income went up, and vice versa. The
deficit depends entirely on tax collections, and tax collections have
depended on the real estate and stock market bubbles.

So the government surplus at the end of the 1990s was caused by the
tech bubble. The government deficit in the early 2000s was caused by
the crash of the tech bubble. The reduced deficit in the mid-2000s
decade was caused by the real estate bubble. The deficit increased
when the real estate bubble crashed. Now the deficit is coming down
because of the new stock market bubble.

As I wrote above, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is at
astronomically high levels. It will fall to about 5-6 or lower at
some point, and the stock market index will fall by 75% or more.

At that point, the deficit will soar to unsustainable levels, and all
these new spending programs will have to be canceled, except those on
which the survival of the country depends.

Spain's far left Podemos party hopes to copy success of Greece's Syriza party

A week after Greece's radical far-left Syriza took power in Greece,
Spain's radical far-left Podemos (Spanish for "we can") hopes to do
the same. In a major show of force, some 100,000 party supporters
held anti-austerity demonstrations in Madrid on Saturday, chanting
"Yes we can" and "tick tock tick tock," the latter to tell politicians
that the clock was ticking. The party is tapping into anger over
austerity programs that the EU forced them to impose and over
corruption among the political elites.

Podemos makes many of the same promises that Syriza did. They
promise to significantly raise the minimum wage, enact laws
preventing businesses from laying off employees, lowering
the retirement age from 65 to 60, and increasing pension payments.

However, the path for Podemos will be much harder than it was for
Syriza. Podemos is polling at only 30%, not enough to gain a
majority, and without the ability to take advantage of any quirk in
Spain's election laws similar to one in Greece's election laws that
turned Syriza's 36% plurality into a governing majority. Furthermore,
Spain's economy has been doing a lot better under austerity than
Greece's has. Even though the unemployment rate is still 23.7%, it's
been steadily declining.

The rapid growth of Podemos in Spain shows the danger that Europe is
facing in its crisis negotiations with Greece. If Europe is too
tough, then Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone, which would
some analysts say would be disastrous for both Greece and the
eurozone. And if Europe is too easy on Greece, then you get
"contamination," where countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy will
demand similar treatment that Germany, among others, would not stand
for. Spain Report and Bloomberg

Egypt's al-Sisi blames foreign countries for terrorist attacks

Egypt is still in shock in the aftermath of Thursday's multi-location
terror attack in North Sinai that killed 25-30 people, most of them
soldiers. Egypt had imposed a curfew and harsh security measures on
North Sinai after a large terror attack in October, and it's clear
that those security measures have failed.

On Saturday, Egypt announced harsh new measures to try to
prevent new violence.

The brigades have been planning and financing terrorist
attacks in Egypt.

The brigades and Hamas have changed from their original objective
of fighting the Israeli occupation, and is now aiming to target
Egypt's security.

A spokesman for Hamas said that the verdict was "dangerous," and that
"Al-Qassam Brigades are the symbol of resistance against the Israeli
occupation, and a symbol of the [Palestinian] nation's pride and
dignity, despite all attempts at defamation."

Shortly after the court decision, in a strident televised speech on
Saturday, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi blamed Hamas, the
Muslim Brotherhood, and unnamed foreign countries for the terror
attacks on Egypt:

Referring to the ouster of former president Mohamed Morsi and
his Muslim Brotherhood government in July 2013 in a coup that he
(al-Sisi) led, he said that Egypt was "paying the price" for having
removed this "terrorist group."

He implied that foreign countries are sponsoring the terror
attacks: "There are some countries that are led by leaders of this
terrorist organization (the Muslim Brotherhood). Do you think these
countries will leave us alone?" He did not name the countries, but
it's thought that he's referring to Qatar and Turkey.

He suggested that jihadists from around the world were coming to
Egypt to join the Muslim Brotherhood: "On 21 June (2013) one of the
main leaders of this organization warned me that they would be getting
people from all over the world to fight you, from countries like
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Libya."

He said that the Brotherhood has been planning, widening their
horizons and establishing a stronghold all over the world, and said
that combating the group will take a long time.

The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for Thursday's terror attack, and
has perpetrated numerous attacks in the past. In November, ABM
changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). At the same time, ABM changed its
name to "State of Sinai," in harmony with the ISIS name "Islamic
State."

Hamas itself was founded in the early 1980s as an offshoot of the
Muslim Brotherhood, and there were reports last year that the
Brotherhood is funding ABM. According to Nabil Naeem, founder of the
Islamic Jihad, another terror group in Gaza, ABM has two branches, one
in Gaza and one in Sinai, and has close relations with Hamas.

Al-Sisi concluded:

"We will not leave Sinai to anyone. With your will the
army will win its confrontation with the terrorists.

It was your will on the 30 June 2013 (the date of mass anti-Morsi
protests), and it was one of the hardest decisions taken by you;
and it's your will that will keep Egypt strong and able to defeat
these terrorists."

We've been reporting since last summer on the changing alliances in
the Mideast, particularly the aftermath of a major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war, bringing Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the
Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey
plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had
been particularly vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of
Mohamed Morsi, but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and
Qataris was equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a
mediator and was able to paper over the differences and obtain a
reconciliation in time for an Arab summit meeting in December.

But now King Abdullah has passed away, and two things on Saturday
indicate that the vitriol is returning in full force: the court
verdict banning Hamas, and al-Sisi's accusations directed at "foreign
countries."

Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the 1980s war with Syria,
putting Lebanon today into a generational Awakening era, and so it is
quite believable that the Lebanese people do not want another war with
Israel, and so Hezbollah is backing down from war with Israel, as I wrote yesterday.

But Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are in generational Crisis
eras, and so are attracted to war. So it's very unlikely that there
will be a new reconciliation between Egypt and Qatar, or between Egypt
and Hamas. Israel and Egypt now appear to be firmly in the same
corner, fighting terrorist acts from Palestinians, al-Qaeda and ISIS,
and these relationships are expected strengthen with each new
terrorist attack. The Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, that I've
been describing for weeks, continues to grow and become more dangerous
on a weekly basis. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Daily News Egypt and Al Ahram and Egypt Independent (9-Sep-2014)

Houthis use live fire against protesters in Yemen

Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in several cities in Yemen on
Saturday, as opposition continues to grow against the Houthi takeover
of the government in Sanaa. Houthi militia fighters used live
ammunition to break up the demonstrations, firing live rounds into the
air. Several protesters were reportedly abducted on Saturday by
Houthis, including youth activist Fouad al-Hamdani. Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye

Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel

Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech on
Wednesday gloating about Wednesday's attack on an Israeli convoy that
killed two soldiers. According to Nasrallah:

"If Israel thinks the resistance is deterred and is
scared of a conflict, I tell you now after the attack in Qunetra,
we are not afraid of war. We will not think twice about
confronting the enemy and we will do so if he forces us.

We don't want war but we don't fear it. The resistance in Lebanon
is not concerned with rules of engagement. It is our legitimate
and legal right to fight aggression, wherever and whenever it may
occur."

It was a retaliation attack for Israel's January 18 airstrike at a
convoy in Syria that killed two of Hezbollah's top commands, as well
as five Iranians and a senior officer in Iran's élite Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). It was feared that Hezbollah would
demand additional revenge beyond the killing of two Israeli soldiers,
or that Israel would strike back. Either way the fear was that
something would spiral into a larger war, as had happened in 2006.

But in fact there had already been several reports that Hezbollah was
signaling Israel that it was backing down and didn't want a war.

That Nasrallah wanted to back down is completely believable. As we
explained two days ago, the
Lebanese people are unified in being opposed to another war between
Israel and Hezbollah, since the 2006 war accomplished nothing but to
make like miserable in Lebanon.

In addition, Hezbollah is completely tied down in Syria. It's
undoubtedly true that Nasrallah would like to be responsible for
killing a few Jews, but his behavior indicates that he's much more
excited by the possibility of massacring and slaughtering thousands of
Muslims in Syria.

As I've been reporting for a few weeks, the real war going on in the Mideast today is not Muslims
versus Westerners, but Muslims versus Muslims. The same is true in
South Asia and North Africa. We have major terror attacks in Egypt
and Pakistan (see below), as well as news that Chad is bombing Boko
Haram positions in Cameroon. This large war of Muslims versus Muslims
is growing in many countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq,
Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Nigeria, Mali, and others to a greater
or lesser extent. Daily Star (Beirut) and Times of Israel

Clashes between Nusra front and Free Syrian Army spreading in Syria

Although the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL)
gets most of the press these days, thanks to their beheadings and
other publicity stunts, there are still other groups fighting in
Syria, and one those fights is said to be spreading. The al-Qaeda
linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) and Western-backed Free Syrian
Army (FSA) are both supposed to be fighting against the army of
Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime but, instead, they're fighting each
other. The clashes began on Thursday, just west of Aleppo, and on
Friday spread into Idlib province.

However, Ahrar al-Sham, another Islamist militia in Syria, has worked
with both groups in the past, and is calling for an end to the
clashes, and said the disagreement should be settled in an independent
Shariah court. Daily Star (Beirut)

Jundallah takes credit for massive mosque attack in Pakistan

A powerful explosion leveled a crowded Shia mosque during Friday
prayers in Shikarpur, a city 200 miles north of Karachi in southern
Pakistan. At least 56 people were killed. Jundullah, a splinter
group of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban) claimed credit:
"Our target was the Shia mosque ... They are our enemies."

TTP and its various splinter groups have in the past attacked both
Sunni and Shia targets, but Jundullah has specialized in sectarian
attacks against Shias. Some of these targets have been on Iranian
soil, though most have been in Pakistan. Some analysts are warning
that sectarian attacks are increasing in Pakistan, at a time when
Muslim versus Muslim attacks of all kinds are increasing throughout
the region. Daily Times (Pakistan) and AFP

Egypt's military begins 'wide military offensives' in North Sinai

After Thursday's sophisticated multi-location North Sinai terrorist
attack by the ISIS-linked terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM -
Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) killing 31 people and
injuring dozens, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is under
heavy criticism. There was a similar terrorist attack by the same
group last October, leading al-Sisi to declare a state of emergency in
the Sinai, and to build a one kilometer wide buffer zone along the
Gaza border, and yet ABM apparently defeated the security measures
with ease.

Al-Sisi has cut short his participation in the African Union summit in
Ethiopia to deal with the aftermath of the terror attack, and Egypt's
army is starting wide military offensives throughout North Sinai,
targeting terrorist hideouts using Apache helicopters and un-manned
planes.

There is a feeling in Egypt that the harsh security measures that were
taken after the October attacks have backfired, in the sense that the
Bedouins living in Sinai have become even more estranged from Cairo.
Al Ahram (Cairo)

Greece clashes with eurogroup 'No more bailout, no more troika!'

Greece's new Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis met with the Eurogroup
of eurozone finance managers, and quickly announced that the meeting
was over. Varoufakis said that Greece did not want an extension to
meet the bailout conditions, and he said that he wanted to meet with
European leaders, not with technicians the "Troika" of organizations
that have been bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Greece is supposed to receive an additional seven billion euro loan at
the end of February in order to made debt payments that will come due
in March. Greece needs to make those payments or else declare
bankruptcy and leave the eurozone. However, that money is dependent
upon a review by the Troika, and Varoufakis said he would not
negotiate with the Troika. Varoufakis says that Greece doesn't want
the money, because it would be used to pay for things they don't care
about -- namely their debts. Instead, Varoufakis wants to negotiate
directly with European heads of state and negotiate staying the
eurozone without going bankrupt and without leaving the
eurozone.

After the meeting, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said, "Taking
unilateral steps or ignoring previous arrangements is not the way
forward." Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

In Denmark you are now paid to take out a mortgage

As we've been reporting for some time, Europe is in a deflationary
spiral which will end in a major financial panic and crisis. Now we
have a new sign: Nordea Kredit, a Danish bank, is offering a mortgage
with a negative interest rate -- which means that the bank lends you
the money, and then pays you interest. Actually, the interest rate
can vary from +0.03% to -0.03%, so not everyone will qualify for
negative interest rates, but a mortgage rate of +0.03% is not that
much anyway.

In a deflationary spiral, most people and businesses postpone
purchases and hoard cash. Hoarding cash is socially acceptable for a
residential family, but not for a bank, which is expected to lend
money for business loans and mortgages. And now, with the European
Central Bank planning a massive quantitative easing program, which
will "print" a lot of money and pump it into banks and the stock
market, banks are expected to get rid of that cash any way they can,
and now we're seeing the first negative rate mortgage.

The deflationary spiral in the U.S. is not advanced as far as it is in
Europe, but it's coming. Zero Hedge

ISIS-linked terrorists kill dozens in Egypt's northern Sinai

Egyptian armed forces in Sinai

At least 26 people were killed and 105 injured on Thursday in a series
of four coordinated terror attacks in Egypt's northern Sinai. The
attacks involved car bombs and mortar rounds. They targeted army and
police personnel, but civilians were killed as well.

The terror group "Sinai Province" claimed credit for the attack. The
group used to be named Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) and was linked to al-Qaeda, but late last year
pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL), and changed its name to "Sinai Province."

In October of last year, ABM used a car bomb to kill 33 Egyptian
troops in northern Sinai, causing Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi to declare a state of emergency in the Sinai peninsula to last
three months, with a curfew in force between 5 pm and 7 am. That
curfew expired a few days ago, but was renewed for another three
months. ( "26-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai")

In addition to declaring a state of emergency, Egypt closed the border
with Gaza, and began building a kilometer-wide buffer zone along the
border the Gaza. The buffer zone has received a great deal of
criticism because it required thousands of Egyptians to leave their
homes and relocate. However, al-Sisi may now announce more extreme
new measures to combat terrorism. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters

Russia looks to Greece as an ally against EU sanctions

With Greece's new radical far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras
questioning EU sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine
and annexation of Crimea, Russia is considering financial aid to
Greece. According to Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Greece
has not yet requested assistance from Russia, but a request would be
considered:

"Well, we can imagine any situation, so if such [a]
petition is submitted to the Russian government, we will
definitely consider it, but will take into account all the factors
of our bilateral relationships between Russia and Greece, so that
is all I can say. If it is submitted we will consider
it."

Both Russia and Greece are Orthodox Christian countries, and have a
long history of economic and cultural ties, and of course the Nazis
invaded both countries during World War II. Almost 13% of Greek
imports came from Russia in 2013, according to the IMF. CNBC and CNN

Greece forces compromise in planned new EU sanctions against Russia

Last week, ethnic Russians in east Ukraine, backed by heavy weapons
and possibly thousands of soldiers from Russia, launched an attack on the port city of Mariupol, although so far they've held back from an all-out assault
on Mariupol. It's assumed that Russia's objective is to create a land
bridge between Russia and Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia
invaded, occupied and annexed last year.

In view of this new military attack, the European Union in Brussels
issued a statement saying that all 28 EU nations agreed that Russia
"bears responsibility" for the attack on Mariupol. On Tuesday,
however, the new Greek government issued a statement that

"[The EU statement] was released without the
prescribed procedure to obtain consent by the member states, and
particularly without ensuring the consent of Greece. In this
context, it is underlined that Greece does not consent to this
statement."

Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria had also voiced objections earlier.
These are the countries whose economies are most negatively affected
by the anti-Russia sanctions.

The result was an emergency meeting on Brussels on Thursday.
Although the Russian sanctions were a completely separate issue
from the bailout of Greece, one EU official implied that they
might be linked:

"You just cannot, on the one hand, demand from Europe
to show solidarity with your own country like Mr. Tsipras does and
then, as a first official step, split the joint European
position."

So Greece's Finance Minister said on his blog that it was all just a
big misunderstanding:

"The problem was that [Alexis Tsipras], and the new
Greek government, were never asked! So, clearly, the issue was
not whether our new government agrees or not with fresh sanctions
on Russia. The issue is whether our view can be taken for granted
without even being told of what it is!"

At Thursday's meeting, EU extended the existing sanctions on Russian
officials until September but, at Greece's insistence, did not add
anyone new to the list of sanctioned individuals. Greece indicated
that it was prepared to use its veto to block sanctions in the future.
Reuters and Russia Today and Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

Greece's Alexis Tsipras escalates confrontation with Germany

Alexis Tsipras places flowers on the National Resistance Memorial in Kaisariani on Monday. (EPA)

On his first days on the job, Greece's new Prime Minister Alexis
Tsipras moved quickly to implement costly government programs that
Brussels and Germany have warned him against. Wednesday's
announcements included halting the sale of the state-owned Public
Power Corporation of Greece (PPC), halting the privatization of the
port of Piraeus, raising pensions for those on low incomes, and
reinstating some fired public service workers.

The Athens Stock Market index plunged 4%, with bank stocks falling
over 12%. The Greek 10-year bond yield was at an unsustainable 10.3%,
meaning that Greece would have to pay 10.3% interest to anyone willing
to lend it money.

As if that weren't enough, Tsipras delivered what one commentator
called "another 'up yours' to the Germans": He visited the National
Resistance Memorial at Kaisariani where, on May 1, 1944, German Nazi
forces executed 200 Greek citizens, mostly Communists.

Israel promises revenge after Hezbollah attack kills two soldiers

In the worst Hezbollah attack on Israel since the two were at war in
2006, Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles at a convoy of Israeli
military vehicles in Shebaa Farms in Israeli-occupied southern
Lebanon. The attack killed two soldiers and injuring several others.
Israel responded by firing at least 25 artillery shells into Lebanon.
Apparently, one of these artillery shells killed a Spanish member of
the UN peacekeeping force that's supposed to separate Hezbollah from
Israeli forces.

According to a statement from Hezbollah:

"At 11:25 [Wednesday morning] the Qunaitra Martyrs
unit targeted with appropriate missile weapons an Israeli military
convoy comprising several vehicles and [transporting] Zionist
officers and soldiers causing the destruction of several vehicles
and inflicting many casualties on the enemy."

Hezbollah made it clear that the attack was made in revenge for a
January 18 Israeli airstrike at a convoy in Syria that killed two of
Hezbollah's top commands, as well as five Iranians and a senior
officer in Iran's élite Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).
However, it's feared that Hezbollah will demand additional revenge
beyond the killing of two Israeli soldiers.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that "Those behind the
attack today will pay the full price," and compared the situation to
the run-up to summer's Gaza war:

"To anyone who tries to challenge us on the northern
border, I suggest that they look at what happened here, at the
Gaza Strip. Last summer Hamas took the hardest blow ever since
its establishment and the IDF is ready to act, with might, in all
sectors. Security is above all."

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador to the UN Security Council, said
that Hezbollah is violating the Security Council resolution that
was passed following the 2006 war, which demands the disarmament
of all armed groups in Lebanon:

"For years, Hezbollah has been stockpiling weapons in
Southern Lebanon in violation of Security Council resolution
1701. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah regularly threatens Israel
and his terrorist organization took responsibility for this
morning’s attack. Hezbollah has the military capabilities, it has
made its intentions clear, and this morning we saw the results.

Israel will not stand by as Hezbollah targets Israelis. Israel
will not accept any attacks on its territory and it will exercise
its right to self-defense and take all necessary measures to
protect its population."

Hezbollah's attack breaks a taboo from 2006 war

In 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers patrolling near the
Lebanon border. Within four hours, Israel panicked and launched a full-scale war with Hezbollah, with
no plan and no objectives. The war was a disaster for both Israel and
Lebanon. Israel accomplished nothing but to destroy a great deal of
Lebanon's infrastructure.

Some people in Lebanon favored Israel to win the 2006 war, and some
favored Hezbollah. But once the war ended, all the people of Lebanon
were united in not wanting anything like that to happen again. And so
it became taboo for Hezbollah to provoke Israel again and risk another
attack. Wednesday's attack breaks that taboo, and is the worst
Hezbollah attack since the 2006 war.

The taboo was clearly stated in a Wednesday editorial in Beirut's
Daily Star:

"Hezbollah’s reaction to Israel’s targeting of its
convoy in Syria less than two weeks ago came as no big surprise
Wednesday, as the resistance party was being pushed – both
politically and physically – by Israel into a response. But it is
imperative now that Hezbollah thinks of what is best for all of
Lebanon, not just the party itself.

The party has made it clear that the attack in the
Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms came in retaliation for Israel’s
deadly attack on its convoy. And Iran – which also lost a general
in the attack – sent a warning to Israel Tuesday. But in terms of
Syria’s place within all this, amid the numerous attacks against
it by Israel over the last few years – the latest one occurring
early Wednesday morning – it still seems it is unable or unwilling
to retaliate itself.

Israel cannot claim to have been shocked by Hezbollah’s response,
which it surely expected. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
many close to him in government will indeed have welcomed
Hezbollah’s response, for parliamentary elections in March are
fast approaching, and war is always good for a hawkish leader’s
ratings.

This is just one of the many reasons that Hezbollah must now act
with wisdom, caution and also a degree of humbleness. It would do
Israel too many favors now to escalate the situation on the
border.

Hezbollah must think of the entire country, and not just its own
interests and pride. Lebanon cannot afford the response that
Israel is promising. The country is in such a precarious security
position that a new conflict could prove disastrous."

The concern is that now that the taboo is broken, then the floodgates
are open. (Sorry for the mixed metaphor.) Hezbollah's leaders may
feel that they have not extracted enough revenge for Israel's January
18 attack, and Israeli leaders have already promised retaliation for
Wednesday's attack. Even if neither side wishes a war, a war may
occur anyway through miscalculation, as each side retaliates for the
other side's previous retaliation. That's pretty much how last
summer's Gaza war began, and it could happen again. Daily Star (Beirut)

ISIS-linked group takes credit for hotel bombing in Tripoli Libya

Flaming oil storage tank after being targeted with rockets by militias in Libya (Reuters)

Militants linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS
or ISIL) took credit for an attack on the the Corinthia Hotel, Libya's
most elegant hotel, in the capital city Libya. The attack combined
gunfire and a grenade. Of the nine people killed, five were
foreigners, including American, one Frenchman, and the rest from
unspecified Asian countries.

In the 2011 civil war that ousted Muammar Gaddafi, the United States
"led from behind" in a Nato operation that aided anti-Gaddafi tribes.
Many of these tribes were united in overthrowing Gaddafi, but
afterwards splintered into two loose confederations. The government
in the west is Libya Dawn, with Islamists and militia from the Misrata
region, in control of Tripoli. The second government is the
internationally recognized government, headquartered in Tobruk in the
east. In addition, an al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Ansar
al-Sharia, is operating in Libya with headquarters in Benghazi, where
it was responsible for the attack that killed American ambassador
J. Christopher Stevens in 2012. In recent months, a number of
individuals in Libya have pledged themselves to ISIS, and have
traveled to Syria for terrorist training. Some may already have
returned.

The 2011 Nato operation did not pacify Libya, and so Gaddafi
would have to be acknowledged as correct when he warned that
Libya would descend into chaos if he were ousted. Even worse,
there was no follow-on from Nato, and huge storehouses of
Gaddafi's weapons were left unprotected, and those weapons have
spread throughout Northern Africa and beyond, via
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

However, it must be noted that Libya is in a generational Crisis era,
and that conflicts between militias began well before the ouster of
Gaddafi. Indeed, it was one of those conflicts that led to the civil
war in which Nato intervened. We can never know what would have
happened in Libya if Nato had not intervened, but in view of Libya's
generational timeline, it's quite likely that Libya would have sunk as
deeply into chaos as it did with the Nato intervention.

The war in Libya is becoming more violent every day. As I've been
reporting for several weeks, there is a large and growing Muslim versus Muslim war already in progress,
not just in Libya, but across North Africa, the Mideast and South
Asia. This war is of historic proportions, and will affect all of us.
Reuters and CNN

Libya's oil production plummets because of conflict

Just as there are now two competing governments in Libya, there are
also two competing national oil corporations, with oil tankers and
pipelines becoming war targets. Libya holds the largest oil reserves
in Africa, and in good times has produced up to 1.6 million barrels of
oil per day. Since its militia wars began, however, daily production
has dropped as low as 200,000 barrels. However, the oil production
began to fall long before the civil war that ousted Gaddafi, thanks to
conflicts between militias during Muammar Gaddafi's reign. VOA and Reuters

S&P lowers Russia's bonds to junk status

Russia's financial crisis deepened on Monday, as ratings agency
Standard & Poors cut Russia's rating to BB+, which is junk status.
The move had been widely anticipated, but the value of the ruble fell
6% against the dollar. Russia is still at investment grade with the
two other major ratings agency, Moody's and Fitch, although many
analysts expect them also to lower Russia's rating to junk status in
the near future.

Russia's financial troubles stem from years of generous spending
programs based on an oil price of $100-120 per barrel, as oil
production is Russia's biggest industry. But facing oil prices now
below $50 per barrel, and with no spare industrial capacity because of
lack of industrial investment in the last two decades, Russia has no
way to generate foreign reserves. Add to that, the Ukrainian invasion
has turned out to be very expensive, and the Western sanctions have
made it almost impossible for Russian entities to borrow money. The
result is that Russians are moving their dollar-denominated accounts
and assets to other countries, fearing that their bank accounts might
be frozen. The result is that Russia's economy is in a downward
spiral, with no visible way of recovering. Moscow Times and Forbes

Australian backlash grows over knighthood for Queen Elizabeth's husband

Kurdish militias drive ISIS out of the Syrian town of Kobani

A fire burns in Kobani Syria during heavy fighting between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga forces (Reuters)

Kurdish forces announced on Monday a major victory over the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), having driven all ISIS
forces out of Kobani Syria, a town strategically located on the border
with Turkey.

The battle over Kobani dominated news coverage for a while starting in
summer of last year because ISIS had committed so many of its men,
weapons and other resources to capturing the town, largely occupied by
Kurds. Syrian PYD Kurdish militias were losing ground to ISIS, even
with the help of daily American warplane strikes. Tens of thousands
of Kobani refugees were pouring into Turkey as refugees.

Then, in October, Turkey had a major policy reversal, and announced
that it would, after all, allow Iraqi peshmerga Kurdish militias to
cross the border from Iraq into Turkey, travel over Turkish soil, and
then cross the border into Kobani in Syria. This was a big problem
for Turkey, and actually caused a political rift, because Turkey has
fought an insurgency by PKK Kurdish insurgents in Turkey over the last
two decades. So it was a surprise when Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan announced in October that this would be permitted. The
peshmerga forces from Iraq were heavily armed, and their aid to the
PYD are now given credit for turning the tide in the battle of Kobani.

Numerous analysts have stated that the U.S. administration's announced
military strategy of airstrikes-only, without "boots on the ground,"
has no chance of pushing back ISIS. The battle of Kobani is actually
an example of the kind of battle that these analysts have been
describing as necessary, but with Kurdish peshmerga forces supplying
the boots. However, there is no other publicly-declared example of
US-led forces closely coordinating militarily with a ground force to
battle ISIS.

Turkey opens its biggest refugee camp to house 35,000

Turkey on Sunday opened its biggest refugee camp to house 35,000
people fleeing from the fighting in Kobani. There are 1.7 Syrian
refugees in Turkey, of which 200,000 have come from Kobani. The
majority of the refugees live outside camps, sometimes on the streets
and in shantytowns, creating tensions with the local population.
Turkey has some 24 camps, housing 265,000 Syrian refugees. Zaman (Turkey)

Australian backlash grows over knighthood for Queen Elizabeth's husband

Queen Elizabeth, with her husband Prince Philip to her right, in a group shot with the Knights of the Thistle. (AFP)

Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott has awarded Prince Philip, the
Duke of Edinburgh, with an Australian knighthood, the country's
highest honor. Prince Philip is the husband of Queen Elizabeth, who
is Australia's ruling monarch in name only.

According to Australia's Defense Minister Kevin Andrews, Prince
Philip's contribution to Australia has been "phenomenal":

"It doesn't cost us anything to give him this award.
How else do we say, in a sense, thank you to someone who's given
six decades of public service? I think it's a phenomenal
contribution. He's still doing it in his 90s now and I think we
should just be generous about it."

However, many MPs were angered and dismayed by the award. One said
that the award was "a stupid announcement" and "manifestly amazing in
the worst possible way." Another said, "I thought it was wackily
quaint and anachronistic. But now it's just become an acute
embarrassment, just plainly ridiculous." Australian Broadcasting

The girlfriend (or common law wife) of 40 year old Alexis Tsipras,
Greece's new Prime Minister, seems to be a perfect fit for him.
They're both good looking, and they share common radical far left
political beliefs.

38 year old Peristera (Betty) Baziana was an activist in the Greek
Communist Party Youth in high school, where she met Tsipras, and
joined him protests and school occupations. They've lived together
for 17 years, but don't believe in marriage. Their first son, Pavlos,
was born in May 2010. Their second son was born in June 2012, and was
named Orpheus and Ernesto, after Ché Guevara, a hero of Tsipras.
Greek Reporter

Greece's radical far left politician Alexis Tsipras has led his Syriza
party to victory in what is being called a historic election, because
of its implications for Europe and the eurozone. Tsipras's campaign
slogan had been "Hope is coming!" In a victory speech reminiscent of
Barack Obama's 2008 victory speech, when he promised that the world
would be a different place on January 21, the day after he took
office, Tsipras promised that "the period of austerity" is over:

"Greece leaves behinds catastrophic austerity, it
leaves behind fear and authoritarianism, it leaves behind five
years of humiliation and anguish.

Our priority from the very first day will be to deal with the big
wounds left by the crisis. Our foremost priority is that our
country and our people regain their lost dignity."

Leftists were dancing in the streets in Athens when the first exit
poll results were announced, and they were joined by visitor from
left-wing parties in Italy, Germany, Spain and elsewhere. Voters were
reacting to huge budget cuts and heavy tax rises during six years of
crisis that has sent unemployment over 25 percent and pushed millions
into poverty.

Here are some of the promises that Tsipras made during the campaign:

Write off a large portion of Greece's 300 bill euro debt
burden. He points out, correctly, that no matter how much the Greeks
cut back, the debt keeps getting bigger.

A splurge in government spending.

The minimum wage, which had been cut by around 25% in 2012,
would be restored to its previous levels.

People whose electricity had been cut off would have
their electricity restored.

There will be substantial new spending on health care and
education.

The jobs of 27,500 public sector workers, mostly teachers and
municipal workers, who had been laid off would be restored.

As I wrote several times during the various Greek crisis periods of
the past years, there is no solution to Greece's debt problem. Saying
this did not require a crystal ball; it simply required doing some
simple arithmetic. As we'll discuss further below, obvious truths are
simply ignored by everyone, when they're not part of the narrative or
either the left wing or the right wing. Now Tsipras has come up with
his own non-solution.

Greece has already received some 240 billion euros in bailout loans.
It needs an additional 10-20 billion euros in loans this year,
starting in March, just to avoid bankruptcy -- and that assumes
that the austerity measures are kept in place. With Tsipras's
spending splurge, that figure could easily go up to 30-50 billion
euros. Are Greece's creditors, including the IMF and Germany,
going to lend that kind of money to Greece to fund a spending
splurge? The question answers itself.

However, there's another side to this, and this is probably what
Tsipras is counting on. Tsipras's Syriza is an umbrella party for a
number of far-left, communist and marxist policies, who will not
tolerate any compromise by Tsipras. So Tsipras will go to Brussels
and say, "Hey help me out guys. If you don't give me the 50 billion
euros I need, then my government will collapse, Greece will be forced
to leave the eurozone, and that will be a disaster for you guys,
because you need Greece more than Greece needs you." Kathimerini and BBC

Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is third in Greece's elections

The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, which has in the past demanded that
anyone not of Greek ancestry be deported from Greece, has come in
third place in the voting, at 6.3%. This is behind Syriza, at 36%,
and New Democracy, at 28.2%. New Democracy is headed by the departing
prime minister Antonis Samaras, and was the governing party until this
election.

This is a remarkable showing for Golden Dawn, despite the fact that
the party's leader and most of its lawmakers are behind bars, facing
charges of participating in a "criminal organization" accused of
murders, brutal attacks on migrants and others, extortion and arson.
These crimes include the Sept. 2013 murder of a leftist rapper, Pavlos
Fyssas. AP and Kathimerini

Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?

I've told this story several times over the years, but it's highly
relevant today:

When I heard Obama campaigning in 2008, saying that with his election
the earth would heal and the tides would recede, and making other
ridiculous promises, I didn't think much of it, since politicians
always say ridiculous things when they're campaigning, and then they
pull them back after the election.

After the election, when I heard Obama continue saying the same
things, that the world would be a different place starting on January
21, then I knew we were in trouble, and the thought that came into my
mind was, "Holy crap! If he really believes his campaign rhetoric,
then he must be delusional." Since then, Obama has had one foreign
policy disaster after another.

So now Greece's Alexis Tsipras is in the same situation, following an
election in which his major campaign promises were, in effect: "After
I'm elected, 2+2 will equal 5."

Now, it really doesn't matter whether Tsipras is the greatest orator
in the world, or the most charismatic leader in the world, or the
smartest person in the world, or the best politician in the world.
2+2 does not equal 5, and never will equal 5. Just as Obama blames
the Republicans and Fox News for 2+2 not equaling 5, Tsipras will
blame his political opposition in Athens, his political opposition in
Brussels, the "Nazi" Germans, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no matter whom he blames, 2+2
will never equal 5.

I've written about many examples of this in the 12 years I've been
developing Generational Dynamics. In the mid-2000s, it was perfectly
obvious that there was a huge housing bubble, and I wrote about it
constantly. I sold my own condo in November 2005, at the height of
the bubble. But the problem is that a housing bubble does not fit the
ideological narrative of either liberals or conservatives, and so the
delusion was massive. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and
journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble." It wasn't until 2009 that mainstream economists began saying
that there had been a housing bubble years earlier. Duh!

The personality type that I'm describing is common today in
Generation-Xers, who drive public opinion, and I've seen in many of
them the two major characteristics of someone with this personality
type:

He's the "smartest person in the room," no matter what
room he's in.

When it becomes apparent that a decision is a bad decision, he
doubles down on the bad decision, creating a disaster.

This is why such people are delusional. When a decision leads to bad
results, it must be because other people are sabotaging it, and since
the decision could not possibly have been bad, he doubles down on it.
He knows with absolute certainty that 2+2=5, and when it doesn't turn
out that way, then other people are to blame, and he has to take
additional steps to force 2+2 to be 5, which it never can be. Those
additional steps create the disaster.

As an example, one disaster in the last decade was the financial
crisis that followed from the collapse of the housing bubble that
didn't even exist because everyone has to live somewhere.

So in the days and weeks ahead, we're going to see whether or not the
radical left Tsipras is pragmatic or delusional. If he proceeds
pragmatically, if he works for some compromise that everyone,
including Brussels, the ECB, the IMF and the Germans, can go along
with, thus ending the crisis, then he'll turn out to be an intelligent
politician and leader, which will surprise a lot of people, most of
all me.

But if he doubles down, and pursues a policy of blackmailing Brussels
and the Germans, saying in effect "You need me more than I need you,
the eurozone needs Greece more than Greece needs the euro, and so I
can do whatever I want, and you'll have to go along with it," then we
can anticipate the worst of all possible scenarios. Bloomberg

Yemen appears to be further destabilizing after president Hadi's resignation

U.S. policy in Yemen affected by Houthi takeover

Measles outbreak being blamed on the 'anti-vaccine movement'

Visitors ride Dumbo the Flying Elephant at Disneyland in Anaheim on Thursday (AP)

Measles was eliminated in the United States in 2000, but 71 new cases
of measles have been reported in the last month. The number is
expected to climb. Almost all of the measles patients had not
received measles vaccinations, or had had only one of the two required
vaccine shots.

62 of the cases were in California, with the rest in Utah, Washington,
Colorado, Oregon, Arizona and Mexico. Almost all the patients had
visited Disney theme parks in Anaheim around Christmas, or had contact
with someone who had visited Disneyland.

The resurgence in measles is being blamed on the anti-vaccine movement
-- people who are refusing to allow their children to be vaccinated.
Many of them have refused vaccinations because they still believe
now-discredited research linking the measles vaccine to autism.

In California, most of the measles cases are occurring in certain
pockets, in places where there is a community reluctance to vaccinate.

The measles vaccine first became available in 1963, and had eliminated
measles in the United States by 2000. But that announcement caused
many parents to decide that it was no longer necessary to vaccinate
their children, and now measles is reappearing. However, starting
last year, the number of parents refusing to vaccinate their children
declined slightly, and is expected to decline further this year.
Mercury News (San Jose) and SF Gate (San Francisco) and LA Times

Russians re-invade Ukraine, targeting Mariupol port city

In a significant escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, ethnic
Russians in east Ukraine, backed by heavy weapons and possibly
thousands of soldiers from Russia, are apparently launching an attack
on the port city of Mariupol. Mariupol is a strategic objective that
would give the Russians access to the Sea of Azov, and would provide
much of what's needed to secure a land bridge between Russia and
Crimea. Russia invaded, occupied and annexed Ukraine's Crimean
peninsula a year ago, and has had to bear enormous expenses supplying
troops and civilians in Crimea by sea. Conquest of additional
Ukrainian territory to provide a land connection between Russia and
Crimean would result in considerable cost reductions. The attack
comes just one day after the east Ukrainian Russians rejected a
ceasefire agreement reached last September, when an east Ukrainian
leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, announced, "We have started an
offensive on Mariupol." On Saturday, Zakharchenko said that the
Mariupol offensive would be "the best possible monument to all our
dead."

Russia's government claims that it's had nothing to do with the new
offensive, but an AP reporter saw convoys of pristine heavy weapons
arriving last week, apparently in preparation for this attack.

Apparently we're now going to have to deal with another period of
Russian government statements in clear contradiction to reported
facts, and so it's a good idea to recall what happened last year.
Russia claimed they weren't invading Crimea, just as Russian troops
were invading Crimea. Russia claimed that they wouldn't annex Crimea,
just before they annexed Crimea, a clear violation of international
law. Russia claimed that there were no Russian troops in east Ukraine
at a time when Russian troops were entering east Ukraine. On
September 5, Russia signed an international peace agreement (the
"Minsk protocols") in which they committed to a political compromise
in east Ukraine, and then repeatedly violated their own agreement.
Basically, anything that comes from Russian state media or Russia's
government should be considered to be a lie. Washington Post and BBC and AP

Yemen appears to be further destabilizing after president Hadi's resignation

The coup by the Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militias, taking control of
the ministerial government functions in Sanaa, the capital city of
Yemen, followed by the resignation Yemen's Sunni president Abdu Rabu
Mansour Hadi, appear to have sparked several groups into action on
Saturday, further destabilizing the country:

10,000-20,000 people marched from Sanaa University, through
the streets of Sanaa, to Hadi's home and back, chanting, "Down, down
with the Houthis' rule," and demanding that Hadi's resignation be
rejected. Women and children joined young men on the streets, waving
signs that called for "a real government" and burning portraits of the
Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi.

At least nine people were killed and dozens wounded in clashes
between Houthi fighters and Sunni tribesmen in Dar Al-Najd, a village
in central Yemen, after Houthi militias were accused of abducting a
journalist. History has shown that even if the Houthis can hold on to
the central government in Sanaa, they will be unable to use force to
control the tribes in the harsh mountain regions.

Secessionist militias from Yemen's Southern Movement blocked roads
in South Yemen and continued to declare independence from North
Yemen.

U.S. policy in Yemen affected by Houthi takeover

For years, the U.S. has been conducting counter-terrorism operations,
including drone strikes, targeting Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP), with the cooperation of Hadi, who just resigned, and his
predecessor, the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted
by Hadi in 2011.

On Friday, the Washington Post reported that the U.S. has been forced
to suspend counter-terrorism operations in Yemen, because of the
government takeover by the vitriolicly anti-American Houthis.
However, administration officials are saying that the drone strokes
and other operations are continuing, but without the aid of
information from Yemeni intelligence agencies, which are now
controlled by the Houthis. Washington Post and Guardian (London)

Death of Saudi's King Abdullah raises concerns about policy changes

The death on Thursday of Saudi Arabia's 90-year-old King Abdullah bin
Abdulaziz al Saud and the subsequent appointment of his younger
half-brother, 79-year-old Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, is raising a
number of questions about whether Saudi policies are going to change
under the new leadership. The consensus is that the succession was
carefully planned in advance to preserve stability and continuity, but
still, some concerns have been raised. Most of the media coverage has
been about women's rights, but there are other issues of greater
geopolitical significance.

First, Yemen is along Saudi Arabia's southern border and as we've been reporting, the government
has collapsed, and no one knows who's running the country today, let
alone who will be running the country next week. The Iran-backed Shia
Houthis have taken over most of the government buildings in the
capital city Sanaa, and may thus be considered the de facto
government, but the Houthis have made it clear that they want to run
the government without actually being officially in charge. One of
the reasons for this gracious reluctance is that the Saudis have made
it clear that they won't tolerate a Shia government in Yemen. In the
meantime, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is
headquartered in Yemen, is taking advantage of the chaos in Sanaa to
link up the other Sunni tribes in preparation for a sectarian war,
while the tribes in the far south of Yemen are declaring their
intention of seceding.

Next, Iran is Saudi Arabia's bitter enemy, and Iran is gaining
influence throughout the Mideast, at Saudi expense. In fact, last
year Iran bragged that Sanaa is fourth Arab capital in Iran's grasp, joining "the three Arab
capitals who are already a subsidiary of the Iranian Islamic
revolution," and part of "the greater jihad." The other referenced
Arab capitals are Beirut Lebanon, Baghdad Iraq, and Damascus Syria.
Iran is also supporting Shia activists in eastern Saudi Arabia and in
Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has urged both Israel and the U.S. to go
through with much-discussed plans to take out Iran's nuclear
facilities with military strikes.

The meteoric rise of Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL) is obviously of concern to the Saudis, as it is of concern to
everyone in the Mideast. It's widely believed in the West that some
tribal elements in Saudi Arabia are providing funds and support to
ISIS, with the intention of eventually overthrowing the al-Saud
government, replacing it with an ISIS or Wahhabi government.

An interesting sidebar is that the Saudis have discussed building a
600-mile barrier along its northern border, to provide protection from
ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and another fence along its southern border,
to provide protection from the Houthis in Yemen. Since the fall of
the Berlin Wall 25 years ago, we've seen fences built along the
southern border of the U.S., around all the borders of Israel, and
along the border between Greece and Turkey. These would be two new
fences.

Oil policy could play a big part in the decision making of the new
King. Oil prices have fallen 60% since June of last year, mainly
thanks to fracking in the United States, and the Saudis are being
pressured by some other oil-producing countries to reduce oil output,
to boost oil prices. Immediately after the death of Abdullah, the
Saudis reassured the world that there would be no reduction in oil
output. Oil prices increased briefly, but soon decreased again.
BBC
and Reuters and
Daily Mail (London)

Saudi Arabia trapped in a corner over Syria policy

Like many Arab Sunnis, the Saudis are appalled that Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad has been conducting virtual genocide against his own
people. Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad has flattened
entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed
children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed
dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel
bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition,
he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and
beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial
strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with
encouragement and support from Russia and Iran.

The Saudis blame the rise of ISIS on al-Assad's actions (as do I).
The Saudis are furious that the U.S. did nothing to stop al-Assad's
genocidal attacks on Sunni Arabs in Syria, and are particularly
contemptuous of President Obama's "red line" flip-flop, allowing
al-Assad to use chemical weapons on his own people with impunity.

In a recent interview, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud likened ISIS to
the Mafia, saying that they are "more criminal than they are
religious." His own anecdotal evidence suggested to him that the
group's members were more concerned with "robbing" and "looting," with
many only joining the organization for the money.

This is potentially an explosive situation, because it's not clear how
long the Salafist factions in Saudi Arabia will continue to tolerate
al-Assad's genocidal actions. Whether the West likes it or not, the
new Saudi leadership may decide it has no choice but to take its own
action against al-Assad. CNBC and Deutsche-Welle

More on the political realignment of the Mideast following the Gaza war

As I've written several times last year, there has been a major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war, bringing Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the
Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey
plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split was extremely vitriolic,
especially between the Saudis and Qataris, and although the
differences were papered over late last year, there's little doubt
that the feelings are as strong as ever. And the mediator who got
everyone to agree to paper over the differences was none other than
Saudi King Abdullah, who has now passed away.

This is a deep, simmering issue in the Arab world, and the new King of
Saudi Arabia is going to be at the center of it. All the Arab states
have as a policy the destruction of "the Zionist entity," at least at
the lip service level. But there are plenty of open questions. When
something happens that forces both the Saudis and Qataris to choose
between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, will they both choose the
same side or different sides? Once again, this is a potentially
explosive situation that only time can resolve.

Yemen government resigns, creating power vacuum for AQAP to fill

A tank sits near the presidential palace in Sanaa Yemen on Thursday (CNN)

The agreement reached on Wednesday between Yemen's Sunni president
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi and the Shia leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi or
the insurgent Houthi militias collapsed within 24 hours after it was
agreed. It was not so much an agreement between equal partners,
anyway. It was much more a set of demands forced on Hadi by the
Houthis. On Thursday morning, al-Houthi refused to remove his troops
from Sanaa, and Hadi resigned, taking his cabinet with him.

Most commentators agree that what the Houthis wanted was for a
weakened Hadi to remain as president, where he could be controlled by
the Houthis. The Houthis apparently do not want to take complete
control of the government, and so Hadi's resignation presents them
with a problem. The Houthis announced that they are appointing a
military council to select a successor, but the choice is going to be
tricky.

Hadi was the deputy of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and when
Saleh was forced out by a coup in 2012, Hadi was the "safe choice" to
replace him, someone that everyone could live with. Thus, Hadi's
resignation now, along with his cabinet, creates a power vacuum that
will be very hard to fill.

For Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the chaos in the capital
city Sanaa is a golden opportunity. AQAP has been partially held in
check by US drone strikes coordinated with the Hadi government, but
now AQAP may have nothing to hold them back. AQAP is going to tap
into the discontent of all the Sunni warlords and Sunni tribes,
pointing to the Iran-backed Shia militias in power and the overthrow
of the Sunni president, who was supported by Saudi Arabia. The
nightmare scenario is a full-scale sectarian war between the Sunnis
and Shias. Reuters and BBC

Southern Yemen leaders call for secession from North Yemen

The resignation of the government of Yemen's president
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was enough to trigger an announcement by
Yemen's southern separatist movements to call for secession.
North and South Yemen were united in 1990, and this is a call
to split Yemen in two again.

Police and other security officials in southern Yemen say they are no
longer taking orders from Sanaa. Houthi militants have already seized
and taken control of almost all state-run media announcements, and
during the televised announcement by southern leaders to break with
Sanaa, Houthi officials cut off the live televised feed, further
angering people in the south. Middle East Eye and APA (Anadolu Agency - Baku)

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah dies

There are concerns that Saudi Arabia is now going to join the unrest
that's been spreading throughout the Mideast in the last four years.
However, with Abdullah ailing in recent months, Salman has been taking
on most of Abdullah's responsibilities, and so it's hoped that things
will be calm for the time being. BBC and
CNN

Officials in the anti-Islam Pegida movement ("Patriotische Europäer
gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes," or "Patriotic Europeans
Against the Islamization of the West") forced the group's leader Lutz
Bachmann to resign on Wednesday, after it emerged that he had posted a
picture of himself posing as Hitler on his Facebook page two years
ago. His troubles increased on reports that he had called refugees
"animals" and "scumbags."

Bachmann said that the Hitler photo was a joke, and apologized for the
inappropriate remarks about refugees. However, the incident has been
a huge embarrassment to Pegida, which bills itself as a moderate
political movement, and rejects characterizations as "neo-Nazi." One
German official said, "Anyone in politics who poses as Hitler is
either a total idiot or a Nazi."

Pegida's "anti-Islamization" protests have been growing larger and
larger each week since they began on Monday. However, anti-Pegida
protests have grown larger than the Pegida protests, especially since
the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris. In Leipzig on Wednesday, about
7,000 Pegida demonstrators were blocked by 20,000 counter-protesters,
while the police worked to keep the two groups apart. Deutsche-Welle and BBC

Yemen's president accepts Houthi demands, possibly resolving crisis

Members of the Yemeni presidential guards, wearing civilian clothes, leave the presidential palace with their belongings in Sanaa on Wednesday, after being driven off by Houthi militias (Reuters)

Yemen's president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, surrounded by Houthi
militias after his own presidential guard had been defeated, agreed to
all of the demands of the leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi of the Shia
Muslim group backed by Iran. The Houthis will be given positions
of power in all state institutions, and will not be required to
withdraw their forces from the capital city Sanaa, as they
had committed previously in an September agreement.

Hadi had no choice but to accede to this agreement, but it remains to
be seen whether it will be acceptable to the Sunni tribes south and
east of Sanaa. Concerns have been increasing that a Houthi coup would
unite the moderate Sunni tribes with the terrorists in al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), leading to a sectarian war. Indeed, a
statement on Wednesday from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of
mostly Sunni Arab nations warned that they "would take all measures
necessary to protect their security, stability and vital interests in
Yemen." It's hoped that Wednesday's agreement will head off a larger
conflict. Others point out that the Houthis are in power, and may not
be satisfied by stopping with the gains they've already made.
AFP and Reuters

U.S. prepares Yemen evacuation as Houthis apparently complete coup

Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi giving a televised State of the Yemen speech on Tuesday

The U.S. military on Monday night has moved two amphibious ships, the
USS Iwo Jima and USS Fort McHenry, from the Gulf of Aden to the
southern Red Sea, in preparation to evacuate the U.S. embassy in
Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, if it becomes necessary.

Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militants stormed the presidential palace
in Sanaa, and are reported to be approaching the private residence of
president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, where he's thought to be. The Prime
Minister's resident is also under attack. One government minister
called the actions "the completion of a coup."

Shortly afterwards, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, the head of the al-Houthis
went on nationwide television and gave a kind of rambling State of the
Yemen address, which was full of threats and accusations:

Al-Houthi appeared to threaten Sunni warlords and tribes
who he said have been fighting alongside Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP).

He also accused president Hadi of aiding AQAP, and of being a tool
of foreign powers, including the United States.

He accused Hadi of accused Hadi of violating last year's
power-sharing agreement. However, he failed to mention his own
commitment in that agreement, that Houthi troops would be withdrawn
from Sanaa, which he has failed to keep.

He accused Hadi's son of corruption, and of stealing
"billions."

As we reported yesterday, analysts
were hoping that the al-Houthis would stop short of taking complete
control of Yemen's government, because of the consequences that would
result. But after today's events, including the harsh personal
criticisms of Hadi, it appears very likely that the existing
government is about to collapse. The al-Houthis are already in de
facto control, and today's events seem close to formalizing that
control. CS Monitor and AP

Obama calls for Congressional approval of military action

Last year in June, President Obama announced that the U.S. would send
300 American advisors to train, advise and support the Iraqi
securities forces fighting the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS or ISIL). Since then, this number has been increased, one
step at at time, from 300 to 800 to 1500 to 3100. He said that this
was "not mission creep." He insisted that the "U.S. will not be
putting boots on the ground." The goal is "to degrade and ultimately
destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL." ( "8-Nov-14 World View -- Obama sharply escalates U.S. involvement in Iraq war") All of this was in addition
to air force strikes against ISIS.

In Tuesday's State of the Union address, Obama said:

"In Iraq and Syria, American leadership – including
our military power – is stopping ISIL’s advance. Instead of
getting dragged into another ground war in the Middle East, we are
leading a broad coalition, including Arab nations, to degrade and
ultimately destroy this terrorist group. We’re also supporting a
moderate opposition in Syria that can help us in this effort, and
assisting people everywhere who stand up to the bankrupt ideology
of violent extremism. This effort will take time. It will
require focus. But we will succeed. And tonight, I call on this
Congress to show the world that we are united in this mission by
passing a resolution to authorize the use of force against
ISIL. We need that authority."

I thought that air strikes against ISIL were already "the use of
force." So it's not clear whether this is a further escalation, or
whether it's simply requesting the legal authority to take the
military action that's already taking place. (The phrase "We need
that authority" was added to the prepared text.)

I have not yet heard any military analyst claim that Obama's strategy
will succeed in its goal "to degrade and destroy ISIS." Every analyst
I've heard says that American "boots on the ground" will be required.

In fact, as I've been reporting repeated in the last few weeks, there
is a growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, South Asia and
North Africa, with tens of thousands of Muslims slaughtered every
year. Generational Dynamics predicts this will spiral into a full
scale regional war, and after that into a world war.

In the speech, Obama did not brag about Afghanistan, except to say,
"Instead of Americans patrolling the valleys of Afghanistan, we’ve
trained their security forces, who’ve now taken the lead." Obama was
burned after withdrawing from Iraq without leaving a residual force,
and today it's far from clear how the withdrawal from Afghanistan will
fare. Washington Post and Guardian (London)

Nigeria's Boko Haram terrorists spread into Cameroon

The town of Baga, after the Boko Haram attack, where hundreds or thousands of people were slaughtered

As I've been reporting for the last few weeks, there is a large and
growing war in the Mideast and South Asia of Muslims at war with
Muslims. Where a few dozen Westerners may be killed in terror attacks
each year, the Muslim versus Muslim war is killing tens of thousands
of Muslims every year, mostly civilians. This Muslim versus Muslim
war is almost invisible in the West, which focuses on the occasional
terrorist acts. There is almost no evidence of a war between Islam
and the West, and it's increasingly clear that things like the Paris
Charlie Hebdo terror attacks have as their primary purpose the public
relations value of attracting disaffected young men from the West to
come to Syria or Yemen for training in terrorist skills, to aid in the
slaughter of other Muslims. ( "12-Jan-15 World View -- Is Islam at war with the West?") Judging from the global daily news coverage, this
public relations plan has been remarkably effective.

So today's news is about three countries participating in this huge
Muslim versus Muslim war, and how the war is escalating in each of the
three countries.

The fight against Boko Haram in Nigeria is becoming more
international, as troops from neighboring Chad entered Cameroon to
fight Boko Haram there. Boko Haram terrorists kidnapped 80 people in
northern Cameroon over the weekend, many of them children and young
girls.

Boko Haram gained international notice when they kidnapped hundreds of
schoolgirls, aged 12-25, on April 16 last year, in order to sell them
into sexual slavery or force them to marry its fighters. Last week,
Boko Haram burned down the town of Baga in northeast Nigeria, and
15-20 other nearby villages, killing up to 2000 resident civilians.

Cameroon's has been fighting Boko Haram in northern Cameroon
apparently more successfully than Nigeria has been fighting Boko
Haram. It's widely believed that some of Nigeria's politicians and
parts of Nigeria's army support Boko Haram. With a presidential
election scheduled for next month no February 14, the country is
almost paralyzed in confronting Boko Haram.

Boko Haram's goal is to mimic the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL) in setting up an "Islamic State" in Nigeria,
Cameroon and Chad. There are reports that Boko Haram has been linking
up with elements of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), making it
a much more international terror group. The fear is that Boko Haram
is going to gain so much power that it force Nigeria's government to
collapse completely. All Africa and
CNN and Guardian (London)

Major escalation in fighting in Yemen

Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militias surrounded the presidential palace
in Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, on Monday, clashing with Yemen's
army. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi doesn't actually live in the
presidential palace, but it's believed that he's hiding out there
during the escalated fighting.

This major escalation in the fighting is threatening the stability of
Yemen, which is already one of the poorest countries in the world. If
the Shia militias take full control of Sanaa, then there would be
several consequences: The warlords of Sunni tribes have promised to
take control of oil fields, essentially starving Sanaa of income;
al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will become more active; and
southern tribes would call for the secession of South Yemen, which had
only joined with North Yemen in the early 1990s.

Another fear is that the war in Yemen will spiral into a proxy war
between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been providing military and
financial aid to the al-Houthis, while the Saudis have refrained, so
far, from getting involved. However, the Saudis have also made it
clear that if the Shia al-Houthis gain control of Yemen, or if Yemen's
government collapses, then Saudi Arabia will intervene.

For all of these reasons, some analysts believe that the current
al-Houthi military initiative is little more than political posturing,
to gain political leverage as a new Yemen constitution is being
considered. According to this view, the al-Houthis could have taken
control of Sanaa several months ago, but didn't do so because they
don't want to be in control of the government. Governing costs a lot
of money that they don't have, and they can't count on money from
Iran, which is having its own financial problems. Instead, the
al-Houthis want to have a major minority position in whatever
government evolves. Al-Jazeera and Reuters

Israel on alert after Iran confirms its general was killed by Israel

Israel's armed force have gone on alert after Iran confirmed on Monday
that Sunday's Israeli air strike that killed Hezbollah commanders also
killed Gen. Mohammad Ali Allahdadi of Iran's élite Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps (IRGC), as well as five more Iranians.

As we reported yesterday the air
strike on the convoy was a heavy blow to Hezbollah because it killed
two of Hezbollah's top commanders. But now it turns out that it's
also a heavy blow to Iran's IRGC, which means that Israel's air strike
was a strike at all three: Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.

Iran does not like to admit that it has IRGC forces in other
countries. According to some analysts, the IRGC has about 150,000
fighters in its al-Quds paramilitary force, and also has a navy and
air force. It's primary mission is to foment terrorism in other
countries, but its forces are currently fighting in Iraq and Syria.

At this point, it's not a question of whether, but only a question of
how and when Hezbollah, Iran and Syria will strike back. Hezbollah
claims that it has 60-100,000 rockets that it could use to strike
anywhere in Israel. Iran might also strike at Jewish targets in other
countries, as it has in the past struck at Jewish targets in Bulgaria
and Argentina. Or Hezbollah may abduct Israeli soldiers near the
border with Lebanon -- a move like this triggered the 2006 war between
Israel and Hezbollah.

Everyone "knows" that a war between Israel and Hezbollah is coming.
Hezbollah is so tied down in Syria, that it may not want to risk a
full-scale war at this time, and so may decide to strike back only
symbolically. However, even a symbolic strike could cause the
situation to deteriorate quickly, and Israel and Hezbollah may find
themselves in a war earlier than either of them expected. McClatchy and YNet

Miss Lebanon may lose her title over selfie with Miss Israel

From left to right: Miss Israel, Miss Lebanon, Miss Slovakia, and Miss Japan

A selfie of four girls, in which Miss Lebanon Saly Greige is posing
next to Miss Israel Doron Matalon, with wide smiles on their faces,
may get Greige kicked out of the Miss Universe contest. Miss Slovenia
and Miss Japan also appear in the selfie. Social media in Lebanon is
being harshly critical:

"You could have avoided mingling with the Israeli
contestant like previous Lebanese contestants have done throughout
the years. And if you were harassed like you say, you could have
at least avoided the huge smile [we see] on your
face."

Greige could be stripped of her Miss Lebanon title, and kicked out of
the Miss Universe contest, but Greige said it wasn't her fault:

"From the first day I arrived at the Miss Universe
pageant I was very careful not to take any pictures with Miss
Israel, who tried repeatedly to take pictures with me. While I
was preparing with Miss Slovenia and Miss Japan to get our
photograph taken, Miss Israel jumped in and took a selfie with her
phone and posted it on social media. This is what happened. I
hope you continue supporting me."

In 1993, Miss Lebanon Huda al-Turk was stripped of her title for
posing with a picture with Miss Israel at the time.

Lebanon on edge after Israeli air strike kills Hezbollah commanders

Lebanon and Israel are both on edge after an Israeli air strike in
Syria killed two Hezbollah commanders. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah is promising revenge, and there are fears that tit for tat
retaliation might spiral out of control.

An Israeli helicopter struck a convoy of Hezbollah operatives, killing
12. One of the dead is field commander Jihad Mughniyeh, 25, the son
of top commander Imad Mughniyeh. Imad was on the United States' most
wanted list for terrorist when he was killed in Damascus by a car bomb
in Damascus in 2008, allegedly from the Israelis. Imad's son Jihad
had been taking a more prominent role since his father's death, and
was overseeing operations in the Golan Heights.

Also killed was field commander Mohamad Issa, chief of Hezbollah
operations in Syria, making this strike a major blow against
Hezbollah, according to reports.

A Hezbollah statement confirmed the names of six Hezbollah fighters
that had been killed, but omitted the names of six fighters from the
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) that are fighting alongside
their Hezbollah counterparts. Iran has been supplying IRGC troops to
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and to Hezbollah, as well as to
Iraq's army, but has denied doing so. YNet (Israel) and Daily Star (Beirut) and Ya Libnan (Lebanon)

Many analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce on
Thursday a quantitative easing (QE) program, in which it will purchase
hundreds of billions of euros of bonds issued by the various eurozone
countries. Effectively, the ECB will be "printing money," and giving
it to the individual countries.

Several countries, including the U.S. and Japan, have been
aggressively pushing QE for years, but the ECB has resisted it because
of fears of harming the euro currency and because the Germans have
been opposed.

But pressure on the ECB to start QE has been increasing, along
with numerous eurozone financial problems:

The eurozone has been in a deflationary spiral for years, and
in December the eurozone fell into actual deflation, with a negative inflation rate.

On Friday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced that it was
ending its own "money printing" program for Swiss francs, which it had
used to purchase hundreds of billions of euros since 2011. The result
was that the Swiss franc gained 20% against the euro, causing further
eurozone deflation, and possibly triggering a chain reaction of bankruptcies.

Greece will have an election on January 25, and the winner
expected to be the radical far left Syriza party, led by Alexis
Tsipras, who has promised to renege on Greece's austerity commitments
that it made in return for its 240 billion euro bailout paid so far.
This may cause Greece to leave the eurozone, or if Europe agrees to allow Greece to renege, then other
eurozone countries may demand the same treatment.

The markets are widely expecting QE to be announced this week, and as
the US QE situation has shown, that money just goes into the stock
market, so that the top 1% make even more money. So if there's no QE
announcement this week, then disappointed investors may sell off,
causing the stock market to fall.

Some analysts are concerned that whatever the ECB tries, it will be
too little too late. Pressure from Germany may keep the ECB program
from being too aggressive. Furthermore, other countries started QE
years ago, and it may be too late to catch up. Forbes and Bloomberg and Brisbane Times (Australia)

Fox News apologizes for misreporting on 'no-go zones' in Europe

Fox News anchor Julie Banderas reading apology statement

As I reported last week ( "13-Jan-15 World View -- Concern rising over Muslim 'no-go zones' as terror breeding grounds"), Britain's prime minister
David Cameron called a Fox News contributor "an idiot" when he said
that Birmingham England was "totally Muslim, and that non-Muslims just
simply don't go in." The contributor was Steve Emerson,
self-described as "an internationally recognized expert on terrorism,"
who described similar "no-go zones" in England and France.

Emerson himself apologized, and Fox News issued a retraction, pointing
out that only 21% of the Birmingham population is Muslim, as I
reported. But Fox News has received a continuing stream of backlash,
ridicule and criticism this week for the error.

To be clear, there is no formal designation of these zones in
either country, and no credible information to support the
assertion that there are specific areas in these countries that
exclude individuals based on solely on their religion.

There ARE certainly areas of high crime in Europe, as there are in
the United States and other countries, where police and visitors
enter with caution. We deeply regret the errors, and apologize to
any and all who may have taken offense, including the people of
France and England."

According to a Fox News spokesman, it's highly unlikely that Emerson
will ever be booked again on Fox News. Washington Post

Swiss franc revaluation panics East European currency markets

Back in September 2011, as we reported at the time, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) conduct a
major experiment. Switzerland is not part of the eurozone, so has its
own currency, the Swiss franc. Before the 2008 credit crisis, one
euro could buy you 1.65 Swiss francs. But then the Swiss franc became
stronger and stronger, and the euro became weaker, and by August 2011,
the two currencies were at parity, meaning that one euro could buy you
just one franc. This did a great deal of harm to Switzerland's
tourist and export business, since people with dollars or euros could
buy less and less in Switzerland.

So the SNB announced that it was going to "print" billions of
Swiss francs, and use them to purchase euros. It was an incredible
experiment. They guaranteed that the franc would not become
stronger than 1.20 francs per euro.

They actually kept that promise. The SNB now has hundreds of billions
of euros on its balance sheet that it doesn't know what to do with.
The euro to Swiss franc exchange rate has been almost flat since then,
at 1.20 francs per euro.

Until Friday. Suddenly, and without notice, and much to the surprise
of the financial community, the SNB abruptly abandoned the printing
program. They issued this statement, where "CHF" is the symbol for
the Swiss franc:

"The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is discontinuing the
minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. ...

The minimum exchange rate was introduced during a period of
exceptional overvaluation of the Swiss franc and an extremely high
level of uncertainty on the financial markets. This exceptional
and temporary measure protected the Swiss economy from serious
harm. While the Swiss franc is still high, the overvaluation has
decreased as a whole since the introduction of the minimum
exchange rate. The economy was able to take advantage of this
phase to adjust to the new situation.

Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major
currency areas have increased significantly – a trend that is
likely to become even more pronounced. The euro has depreciated
considerably against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused
the Swiss franc to weaken against the US dollar. In these
circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining
the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is
no longer justified."

When they refer to "a trend that is likely to become even more
pronounced," many believe that they're referring to reports that the
European Central Bank (ECB) is going to start its own "printing"
program, using quantitative easing (QE) to purchase bonds and make
billions or trillions of additional euros available.

The results were dramatic. The franc immediately strengthened to
above parity with the euro, and closed at parity (1 euro for 1 franc)
by the end of the day, 20% stronger than before. In currency trading,
a 2-3% change is considered big. A 20% move could be disastrous (just
as a 20% fall in the stock market could be disastrous).

Financial markets went into panic in Croatia and Serbia on Friday.
Hundreds of thousands of people have loans denominated in Swiss francs
in these two countries, and the amount of debt owed by these people
effectively increased by 15-20% in one day. Newspaper headlines read
"Catastrophe" and "Debt crisis" and "Swiss strike."

At least two currency brokerages in the U.K. filed for bankruptcy
by the end of the day, and others across the globe may follow
next week. The reason that currency brokerages are filing for
bankruptcy is that their clients are applying for bankruptcy.
In many cases, investors made currency bets based on margin,
and after the SNB move, they're no longer able to meet margin
calls. This means that the brokerages that funded these margin
debts are now responsible for them, driving some of them into
bankruptcy.

Troops and police spread across Europe, in fear of terror attacks

Thousands of police and troops are in the streets of Belgium, Germany
and other countries, hoping to head off new terror attacks. This
following the terror attacks in Paris two weeks ago, and raids targeting returning Syrian jihadists in the last few days. In Belgium, police are stationed
in buildings within the Jewish quarter of Antwerp and the Jewish
Museum in Brussels. Troops will reinforce police at least until
Thursday. This is the first time in decades that troops have
been on the streets of Belgium.

Police in Athens Greece arrested four people allegedly
connected to a foiled terror plot that last week's police
action in Belgium had foiled. The alleged mastermind was
identified as a Belgian of Moroccan descent.

Up to 300 members of the military will be stationed at locations such
as the U.S. and Israeli embassies in Brussels and NATO and EU
institutions. AFP and VOA

Thousands in Muslim countries protest cartoon depiction of Mohammed

Muslims across the world have expressed revulsion at the jihadist
attack on the journalists of Charlie Hebdo in Paris last week, but
they're also expressing fury that Charlie Hebdo insulted Islam by
publishing a new satirical cartoon depicting Mohammed, something
that's forbidden in the Muslim culture.

Protests are common on Fridays, after midday prayers, and on this
Friday there were thousands of protests in many countries, including
Sudan, Russia's North Caucasus, Mali, Senegal, Mauritania and Jordan.

However, in Pakistan's port city of Karachi, three people were
injured as police battled activists from the Jamaat-e-Islami party,
who were trying to enter the French consulate.

In Niger, at least ten people have died in violence on Friday and
Saturday, as rioters burned churches and cars, and attack
French-linked businesses. All of the dead were civilians, with most
killed inside burned churches or bars. Guardian (London) and AFP

Barack Obama describes an American advantage over Europe

At a press conference on Friday with UK prime minister George Cameron,
President Barack Obama discussed the difference between the U.S. and
Europe with respect to Islamic terrorism (my transcription):

"Europe has some particular challenges. The United
States has one big advantage in this whole process. And it's not
that our law enforecement or our intelligence services etc are so
much better, although ours are very very good, and I think
europeans would recognize that we've got capabilities that others
don't have. Our biggest advantage is that our Muslim populations
-- they feel themselves to be Americans, and there is this
incredible process of immigration and assimilation that is part of
our tradition that is probably our greatest strength.

Now that doesn't mean that we aren't subject to the kinds of
tragedies that we saw at the Boston Marathon, but that I think has
been helpful. There are parts of Europe where I think that's not
the case, and that's probably the greatest danger that Europe
faces. Which is why as they respond, as they work with us to
respond to these circumstances, it's important for Europe not to
simply respond with a hammer and law enforcement and military
approaches to these problems, but there also needs to be a
recognition that the stronger the ties of a north African or a
Frenchman of North African descent to French values, French
Republic sense of opportunity -- that's gonna be as important, if
not more important, in over time solving this problem. And I
think there's a recognition across Europe and it's important that
we don't lose that."

International Criminal Court opens probe into Israel's war crimes

Masked Hamas members carry a model of a rocket in a Gaza rally in December (Flash90)

In a move that some are describing as purely symbolic, at least
for the time being, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has
opened a preliminary investigation into war crimes committed
by Israel during the summer 2014 Gaza war.

Once Mahmoud Abbas, representing the State of Palestine, made the
request to the ICC, the prosecutor Fatou Bensouda is required by ICC
policy to conduct a preliminary investigation, to determine whether
she should launch a complete formal investigation. She has two
options, in that she can decide to launch the formal investigation, or
decide not to. However, there's no timeline or deadline. In fact,
according to one analyst, there are already pending preliminary
investigations for Afghanistan, Colombia, Georgia, Guinea, Honduras,
Iraq, Nigeria and Ukraine, so Israel would just be another one. If
she does launch a formal investigation, there could be war crimes
charges against both Israeli leaders and Hamas leaders.

It's far from clear whether the ICC has the jurisdiction to take on
this case. The U.N. General Assembly voted in November 2012 to create
a State of Palestine, but it's not a member of the U.N., and only has
observer status. There is no precedent for a non-member (like the
Holy See) to join the ICC. For the ICC to have full jurisdiction in
this case, there would have to be an affirmative vote of the Security
Council, and the U.S. has already indicated that it would veto such a
resolution. Al Jazeera and LA Times and Washington Post

Moody's lowers Russia's bonds to near-junk status

Moody's Investors Service cut its rating on Russia's government bond
to Baa3 from Baa2. This puts the bonds just one notch above the
non-investment grade, or "junk status."

Moody's lowered the bond grade to Baa2 in October, just three months
ago. According to Moody's today:

Moody's one-notch downgrade to Baa2 in October 2014 balanced an
increasingly subdued growth outlook -- in part reflecting Russia's
weak institutional strength and the challenging geopolitical
environment -- against the government's still extremely strong
balance sheet.

The negative outlook reflected the fragile nature of that balance,
with both the growth outlook and the government's fiscal position
exposed to further shocks that could more profoundly undermine
consumer and investor confidence, hastening the erosion of fiscal
and foreign currency buffers.

As evidenced by the recent further steep falls in oil prices and
the exchange rate, these shocks have materialized. According to
Moody's, the severe -- and likely to be sustained -- oil price
shock, alongside Russian borrowers' highly restricted
international market access due to ongoing sanctions, is
undermining economic fundamentals and increasing financial
stresses on both the public and private sectors. In its updated
growth outlook for Russia, Moody's now expects real GDP
contractions of around 5.5% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, bringing real
growth over the 10 years through 2018 to virtually zero.

Last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded Russia’s credit rating to BBB-
from BBB, which is also just one step away from junk level. In
December, Standard & Poor's revised Russia’s rating to BBB-, saying
there is a 50 percent possibility it will drop Russia to junk level in
mid-January 2015. Moody's Investors Service and Russia Today

Fearing bank runs, Greece's banks make emergency aid request

Two of Greece's banks have requested an emergency credit line under
the Emergency Liquidity Assistance program, or ELA. Neither bank
plans to use the money at this stage, but it requested out of concern
over a possible bank run following the January 25 election. The
radical far left Syriza party is leading in the polls and is expected
to win. The party's leader, Alexis Tsipras has said that he will
renege on Greece's austerity commitments that it made in return for
its 240 billion euro bailout paid so far. There is a possible
"Grexit" scenario with Greece will leave the eurozone and start
printing drachma currency again, which would substantially devalue
existing Greek bank accounts.

Fearing this scenario Greek bank account holders have been withdrawing
money from Greek banks and depositing the money foreign banks, where
it would be safe from Grexit. Bank deposits fell by 3 billion euros
in December, and have been accelerating since then.

Tsipras has said that Greece will not leave the eurozone because the
eurozone needs Greece more than Greece needs the eurozone. He may be
right. There are new reports that Eurogroup members are considering
offering Greece a six-month bailout extension, and possibly
renegotiating a new bailout package. A Eurogroup meeting of eurozone
finance ministers will take place one day after the elections to
decide what to do next. Bloomberg and Kathimerini

Belgium police raid multiple groups of returning Syrian jihadists

Foreign fighters flow to Syria. This graphic is from Oct 2014, so the figures may have doubled by now (WaPost)

Belgium police raided ten locations where it was suspected that
home-grown jihadists returning from Syria were planning terror acts.
One location was in the town of Verviers, where two suspected
terrorists were killed after a shootout, and the others were spread
across the capital city Brussels, which is also the capital city of
the European Union.

Police believe that the terrorists were planning a "major attack,"
although there was no evidence of an imminent threat. The
counter-terrorism raids come one week after the Charlie Hebdo
terrorist attack in Paris, though it's not believe that the two are
linked. AFP and Bloomberg

The growing problem: Young men return home after ISIS terror training

The Belgium raids highlight a rapidly worsening problem: That
disaffected young people from any country can go to Syria and receive
terrorist training from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL), and then return home and use their newly acquired
skills for a terror attack.

I've been discussing this issue for almost two years, but the graphic
at the top of this article illustrates it beautifully. The actions of
Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad to conduct a genocidal
war of extermination against innocent Sunni women and children in his
own country, using weapons supplied by war criminal Vladimir Putin,
have turned Syria into a magnet for depressed and disaffected young
men around the world who think that they'll find true happiness
maiming and killing other people. (The graphic is from October 2014,
so the figures may have doubled or tripled by now.)

The most significant development of the last year has been the rise of
ISIS in Syria and Iraq, led by the charismatic Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
who is attracting even more would-be jihadists to populate his
self-declared caliphate.

The events of the last couple of weeks have seen another major,
significant development. The Charlie Hebdo attackers were trained in
Yemen by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), before ISIS ever
gained prominence. In the last few days, AQAP has been crowing about
how they were responsible for the Charlie Hebdo attack. The new
development is that the leaderships of ISIS and AQAP are apparently
now in competition with each other to be most fashionable and trendy
terror group, so that they'll attract the most would-be jihadists.

Unfortunately, there's every sign that these trends are going to
accelerate. It takes only a few lone-wolf jihadists, after getting
some training in Syria or Yemen, to set off a bomb or launch a gunfire
assault, and it's apparently the desire to both ISIS and AQAP leaders
to encourage such attacks. The number of young men willing to go to
Syria and Yemen to get terrorist training is growing, and the number
of young women going to Syria to marry a terrorist because maiming and
slaughter is so erotic is also growing. So the simple math is that
there is going to be more of these attacks.

In Belgium on Thursday, the police were able to act before it was too
late. It's doubtful that they'll always be so lucky. Washington Post (11-Oct-2014)

Lithuania asks citizens to prepare for Russian invasion

For most of the last century, Lithuania was part of the Soviet Union,
and only achieved independence in 1991, after which it joined Nato and
the European Union. But the recent Russian invasions of Georgia and
Ukraine, annexing territory from each, has led Lithuania's government
to issue a manual on "How to Survive a Russian Invasion."

The main advice is:

"Keep a sound mind, don’t panic and don’t lose clear
thinking. Gunshots just outside your window are not the end of
the world."

In the event of invasion, the manual says Lithuanians should organize
themselves through Twitter and Facebook and attempt cyber-attacks
against the enemy.

In case of Russian occupation of Lithuania, the manual advises
demonstrations and strikes or "at least do your job worse than usual"
as resistance techniques. Reuters and Russia Today

The Historical Thesaurus of English now available online

The University of Glasgow Historical Thesaurus of English web site was
launched on Thursday. It contains 800,000 words from Old English to
the present day, based on the Oxford English Dictionary, arranged into
detailed hierarchies within broad conceptual categories such as
Thought or Music. According to the university, it is the world's only
complete historical thesaurus published in any language.

Pope canonizes first Sri Lanka saint, calls for national unity

More than half a million people attended a seafront mass in Colombo,
the capital city of Sri Lanka, on Wednesday, as Pope Francis announced
that Reverend Joseph Vaz had been canonized as a saint. Vaz was a
17th century Indian missionary who revived the faith in Sri Lanka
during a time of anti-Catholic persecution by Dutch colonists, who
were Protestant Calvinists.

The Pope's visit comes five years after the end of Sri Lanka's 26-year
civil war. Sri Lanka has two major ethnic groups, the majority
Sinhalese, mostly Buddhist, who control the markets and the
government, and the minority Tamils, mostly Hindu, who were rebelling
against the government to create a separate Tamil state. The Pope
said that he hoped that religion could help heal the divisions between
Sinhalese and Tamils, just as Saint Joseph Vaz had helped bring the
peace in the 17th century.

The Pope encouraged the Sri Lanka government to appoint a "truth
commission" to determine what happened in the civil war, to bring
about healing:

"The process of healing also needs to include the
pursuit of truth, not for the sake of opening old wounds, but
rather as a necessary means of promoting justice, healing and
unity."

This was actually a swipe at the Sinhalese government, which has been
accused by the U.N. Human Rights Council of having committed genocide
during the civil war. Although the war ended in 2009, there are still
some Tamil groups in Sri Lanka and in the European diaspora that would
like to revive the war, and the Pope's nice-sounding remarks give
encouragement to those groups.

Here's an excerpt from a letter sent by a Tamil leader to
the Pope, shortly before his visit:

"I am Mrs. Ananthy Sasitharan, an elected member of
Northern Provincial Council in the island. I am working for the
people who lost their family members in the last phase of the
genocidal war waged on Tamil people in the North-East. We have
been tracing the whereabouts of many of the cases that are being
regarded in the records as ‘missing persons’. ...

I hope that Your Holiness is aware of the fact that the underlying
conflict in the island is a 60-year-long genocide against
Tamils. It has claimed the lives of most of the talented people
from our traditional homeland in the North-East. A significant
number of our resource people are forced into exile. The remaining
Tamils are forced to live as second-class citizens, facing various
forms of oppressions, colonization, Sinhalicisation and finally
Buddhicisation of the traditional Tamil homeland through Sinhala
militarisation.

During your visit, the Sri Lankan political leaders ... will be
fighting for the opportunity to kiss your hand and get your
blessings. ... The political leaders and their military commanders
of the Colombo government are seeking to protect themselves and
their system from its crime of genocide. ...

Your Holiness, please do not be fooled by their false promises on
protecting ‘minorities’. In fact, transforming Tamils into their
‘minorities’ was their first step in the genocide. Tamils are not
a minority in our own traditional homeland, which is subjected to
systematic Sinhala Buddhist colonization with a genocidal
motive. ...

We look at Vatican, as a moral guardian of humanity. The Catholic
Church, having witnesses among the people, has a moral duty to
safeguard the people from the protracted crime of
genocide."

As this letter shows, the civil war ended in 2009, but the tensions
and emotions that drove the civil war are still burning. Reuters and Guardian (London) and TamilNet

Sri Lanka's presidential election exhibits high drama

Mahinda Rajapaksa was first elected president of Sri Lanka in 2005,
and led Sri Lanka to victory over the Tamils in the civil war that
ended in 2009. His political party, the United People’s Freedom
Alliance (UPFA), has won almost every local and national election
since then. In October of last year, sure of victory, Rajapaksa
called for a new election for January 8, a year earlier than he had
to.

However, Rajapaksa's own Health Minister, Maithripala Sirisena,
declared that he would create a new party, the New Democratic Front
(NDF), and oppose Rajapaksa. Even two weeks ago, it was thought that
Rajapaksa would score a major victory. But when the election was over
and they counted the votes, everyone was shocked that Sirisena won.
Rajapaksa was hailed as a unifier when he graciously conceded defeat
to Sirisena.

Then it turned out that, on the morning of election day, Rajapaksa
realized that he might lose, and he sought the support of the army in
overturning the results of the election. Only after they failed to
back him did he concede.

The campaign spokesman of the new president claimed on Saturday that
the Sri Lankan army had defied Rajapaksa's orders to use force to keep
him in power:

"The army chief got orders to deploy the troops on the
ground across the country. They tried attempts to continue by
force. The army chief defied all the orders he got in the last
hours.

We spoke to the army chief and told him not to do this. He kept
the troops in the barracks and helped a free and fair
election."

However, Rajapaksa denies that there was any coup plot. According
to his spokesman:

"When U.S. State Secretary John Kerry spoke to
Rajapaksa over the phone, the former president assured him there
will be a smooth power transition as stipulated in the
constitution."

Sri Lanka follows a predictable pattern after its civil war

As long-time readers may recall, as the Sri Lanka civil war
approached a climax in May 2009, every news organization and analyst
that reported on the civil war were predicting that the civil
war would continue on for months or years, because it had already
gone on for 26 years.

As far as I know, every analysis in the world was wrong except the
Generational Dynamics analysis. As I had been saying for months
earlier, the Sri Lanka civil war was a generational crisis war, headed
for an explosive climax, and when that climax was finally reached,
then the war would be over once and for all. The comparison I made
was to the surrender of Berlin and Tokyo that ended World War II once
and for all.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, civil wars are very
interesting studies because they're self-contained. With a war
involving two or three nations, it gets complicated to sort out the
various ethnic groups, religions, and generational timelines. But in
the case of a civil war, such as the Sri Lanka civil war, you have two
opposing sides with the same generational timelines, and with a clear
fault line separating. The result is that the generational timelines
for civil wars are more predictable than for multi-nation wars.

Let's illustrate this in the case of Sri Lanka.

The Sri Lanka civil war was fought between two ancient races: The
Sinhalese (Buddhist) and the Tamils (Hindu). WW II was a crisis war
for India and for Ceylon, the former name of Sri Lanka. There was
relative peace on the island until 1976, when the Tamils began
demanding a separate Tamil state, and formed a separatist group called
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or just "Tamil Tigers."

A non-crisis civil war began in 1983, and the low-level violence
continued until a peace treaty was signed in 2002. In the next few
months, the peace treaty has been unraveling, and in the last couple
of weeks it appears closer to a full-scale crisis civil war.

In 2006, the fighting became a lot more serious and by 2008 it
was a full-fledged generational crisis war. The major characteristic
of a crisis war is that the value of an individual life goes
to zero, while the only thing that matters is the society and
its way of life. To illustrate this, I always like to point to
the Allied storming of Normandy Beach in 1944, where the American
soldiers were shot down like fish in barrel. Subsequently, the
allies firebombed and destroyed Dresden, and then nuked two
Japanese cities.

WW II had a literally explosive climax, but the Sri Lanka civil war
had a climax that was just as explosive, though not literally, and
just as genocidal. The Tamils had been using civilians as shields.
Since the Sinhalese army did not want to kill innocent civilians, this
Tamil tactic worked for years. In January, 2008, the Sri Lankan
military commanders promised to "defeat the Tamils once and for all"
by the end of 2008. This was a signal that the lives of civilians
would no longer matter, and that the army would attack the Tamil
Tigers even if it meant killing civilians. (See "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels" from January 2008.)

Finally, in May 2009, the Sinhalese army trapped the Tamil Tiger
militants in a U.N.-declared "safe zone" and slaughtered them,
including a number of civilians, although 50,000 civilians that had
been trapped there were freed. That was the end of the war. (See
"Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war" from May 2009.)

The genocidal climax of a civil war is particularly shameful for
both sides, because the mass slaughter was not directed at foreigners,
but against cousins, brothers and neighbors.

Once a crisis civil war ends, the country goes through a Recovery
Era, where the traumatized survivors pass laws and create institutions
whose purpose is to guarantee that such a war will never happen again,
not to their children and not to their grandchildren.

Sri Lanka is now in the midst of a Recovery Era. Tensions are high
and bitterness is deep, but there's no more war, at least for the time
being. But there's a new generation rising, young people with no
personal memory of the horrors of the civil war. After about 15 years
after the climax, there's a generational Awakening Era, and they begin
to make their voices heard. Young Tamils will demand an end to
discrimination, and many young idealistic Sinhalese will join them.
But then the incidents of violence will start, expanding into
low-level violence, and the cycle will continue.

Europe prepares for Greece's possible exit from eurozone

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras dances with party official Rena Dourou at pre-election rally last month (EPA)

It's far from certain, but the impending Greek crisis rerun during the
next month poses a real threat that Greece might have to leave the
eurozone and start printing drachmas again, with the result that
bankers and politicians are drawing up contingency plans in case it
happens.

The radical far left Syriza party is maintaining a "stable and sharp
edge in the polls," according to one analyst, for the January 25
election, meaning that Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras is the most likely
person to be Greece's next Prime Minister. Tsipras has promised that
if he wins, then Greece will renege on the austerity commitments it
made when it received a 240 billion euro bailout that has already been
paid. In particular, he took a swipe at Germany when he promised that
the country will "write down most of the nominal value of
debt... That's what was done for Germany in 1953, it should be done
for Greece in 2015."

Greece is in serious economic trouble. It has to come up with 4.6
billion euros in bond maturities in March, and 31 billion euros total
by the end of 2015. On the income side, tax revenues have been 40-50%
below expectations. In February, Greece has to pay creditors 2
billion euros, and must pay another 4.5 billion euros to International
Monetary Fund (IMF) this year.

So Greece needs another bailout, and both sides are playing a game of
chicken. Germany says Greece won't get the new bailout unless they
stick to the existing austerity commitments. Tsipras says that
they're reneging on the commitments, and that Europe will have to
provide the bailout anyway.

Most analysts believe that "Grexit", the Greek eurozone exit, will be
avoided because some compromise will be reached. But in the 1950s,
the game of chicken was played with two cars racing at each other
until one car or the other turned away, and we know that sometimes
neither car turned away, with explosive results. Greek Reporter and Nasdaq and Greek Reporter

Germany's anti-Islam Pegida movement fielded 25,000 protesters in
Dresden on Monday, the largest number ever. The Pegida movement
("Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes," or
"Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West") protests
have been growing in size since Pegida was launched in October.

There has also been a growing opposition, and 100,000 Germans attended
anti-Pegida counter-demonstrations. The growth of the anti-Pegida
movement was spurred by the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris last week by
Islamic jihadists. As I've been writing, the number of Islamic terror
attacks is expected to increase as collateral damage to the growing
Muslim versus Muslim wars in the Mideast, South Asia and North Africa.
( "12-Jan-15 World View -- Is Islam at war with the West?")

According to some historians, Dresden is the perfect city for the
growth of the Pegida movement, because of its role in World War II.
In February 1945, American and British bombers dropped 4,000 tons of
explosives on Dresden, destroying the city. Twenty-five thousand
people were killed. The anniversary is still marked every year with
protest marches through Dresden’s rebuilt center. The history shapes
the worldview of many Pegida supporters. According to Werner Patzelt
of Dresden University:

"The argument runs basically like this: Dresden has
been destroyed by Americans and English bombers. Americans have
never stopped bombing around the world. Now they bomb in the Near
East [Middle East]. They destroy states there. As a result, we
have so many refugees."

Patzelt adds that Russian flags seen during Pegida marches indicate
the desire among some for a counterweight to American power. VOA and
Globe and Mail and Bloomberg

Britain's PM Cameron calls Fox News commentator a 'total idiot'

A typical sight in a commercial area of a Muslim 'no-go zone' in France (Daniel Pipes)

Steve Emerson, self-described as "an internationally recognized expert
on terrorism", appeared on Fox News on Sunday evening, and was asked
about "no-go zones." He said that there are a number of European
cities "where sharia courts were set up, where Muslim density is very
intense, where the police don't go in, and where it's basically a
separate country almost, a country within a country." He added:

"In Britain, it's not just no go zones, there are
actual cities like Birmingham that are totally Muslim where
non-Muslims just simply don't go in. And parts of London, there
are actually Muslim religious police that actually beat and
actually wound seriously anyone who doesn't dress according to
Muslim, religious Muslim attire. So there's a situation that
Western Europe is not dealing with."

When Britain's prime minister David Cameron was asked about it,
he said:

"Frankly I choked on my porridge and thought it must
be April Fool's Day. This guy is clearly a complete
idiot."

Perhaps Emerson's hysterical remarks were in some way forgivable, but
one is tempted to agree with Cameron. In 2006, the Congressional
Quarterly did an informal survey of Mideast "experts" in Washington,
including some who had been analysts for years, and discovered they
were abysmally ignorant. One so-called expert, for example, thought
that al-Qaeda was a Shia Muslim organization.

As I wrote at the time, I've had many shocks and surprises since I
started writing about Generational Dynamics in 2002, but probably no
more shocking than the realization that I now know more about the
history and current events about the world than do 99.9% of the
politicians, analysts, journalists, pundits and others in Washington.
This is a reflection on how much work I've done, but it's even more a
reflection of the sheer arrogance and stupidity that pervades
Washington -- and London. And of course I've written many times about
the open lying about stock valuations on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Fox News later issued a retraction, pointing out that 21 per cent of
Birmingham population is Muslim, with 46.1 per cent identifying
themselves as Christians.

Emerson himself issued the following apology:

"I have clearly made a terrible error for which I am
deeply sorry. My comments about Birmingham were totally in
error. And I am issuing this apology and correction for having
made this comment about the beautiful city of Birmingham. I do not
intend to justify or mitigate my mistake by stating that I had
relied on other sources because I should have been much more
careful. There was no excuse for making this mistake and I owe an
apology to every resident of Birmingham. I am not going to make
any excuses. I made an inexcusable error. And I am obligated to
openly acknowledge that mistake. I wish to apologize for all
residents of that great city of Birmingham. Steve Emerson PS. I am
making donation to Birmingham Children's Hospital."

Controversy revived over France's 'no-go zones'

Emerson's remarks have revived a controversy over "no-go zones" in
Europe and elsewhere, which might be breeding grounds for terrorism.
France has identified 751 Zones Urbaines Sensibles (ZUS - Sensitive
Urban Zones). These are sometimes informally called "no-go zones,"
because it's claimed that they're almost entire Muslim, self-governing
with Sharia law, and where even the police never go.

Other places where it's claimed that these no-go zones exist are in
Birmingham England, Hancock New York, and Dearborn Michigan.

It turns out that France's list of ZUS is from 1996, and many of them
are simply places where urban renewal projects have been planned,
because of poverty and crime. Today, some of them have been
rehabilitated, some are poor but non-violent, and some are poor and
occasionally violent.

The ZUS were in the news in 2005, when there were several days of
Muslim violence in the suburbs of Paris. However, these were not
recent immigrants. In most cases, the youths were French citizens who
were second and third generation Moroccans, Turks and Arabs whose
parents and grandparents came to France in the 1960s and 1970s,
seeking a better life.

Mideast blogger Daniel Pipes started blogging about France's no-go
zones in 2006, and updated his blog repeatedly, sometimes with horror
stories. Then, in a January 2013 update, he wrote:

"Jan. 16, 2013 update: I had an opportunity today to
travel at length to several banlieues (suburbs) around Paris,
including Sarcelles, Val d'Oise, and Seine Saint Denis. This comes
on the heels of having visited over the years the predominantly
immigrant (and Muslim) areas of Brussels, Copenhagen, Malmö,
Berlin, and Athens.

A couple of observations:

For a visiting American, these areas are very mild, even dull. We
who know the Bronx and Detroit expect urban hell in Europe too,
but there things look fine. The immigrant areas are hardly
beautiful, but buildings are intact, greenery abounds, and order
prevails.

These are not full-fledged no-go zones but, as the French
nomenclature accurately indicates, "sensitive urban zones." In
normal times, they are unthreatening, routine places. But they do
unpredictably erupt, with car burnings, attacks on representatives
of the state (including police), and riots.

Having this first-hand experience, I regret having called these
areas no-go zones."

As Pipes points out, the unrehabilitated no-go zones are similar to
high-crime areas in American cities, such as the Bronx, Detroit and
Chicago. And he might have mentioned the far worse situation in
Mexican cities where drug cartels are in charge.

The fact that unrehabilitated Muslim no-go zones are similar to
high-crime areas in large cities everywhere would be cause enough for
concern, but it's believed that these are breeding grounds for
would-be jihadists planning to commit terrorist acts. It's known that
some 1,200 young French citizens have gone to Syria for training,
possibly to return to France with new terror skills, and it's feared
that many of them may be coming from the unrehabilitated ZUS.
Catholic Online and Snopes and
France - government
and Trip Advisor and Daniel Pipes

France to deploy 5,000 police to protect Jewish schools

Four Jews were killed on Friday in an attack on a kosher supermarket,
in an attack that was linked to the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris two
days earlier. France's president François Hollande responded by
promising the Jewish community would be protected by the French army,
"if necessary." The interior minister announced on Monday that 5,000
security forces and police will protect the 700 Jewish schools in the
country, though how long this protection will continue was not
announced.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has annoyed French
politicians by urging French Jews to move to Israel, but in fact that
was already happening prior to Friday's attack. A record 7,000 Jews
emigrated from France to Israel in 2014. According to historian Marc
Knobel:

"There are Jewish people living in sensitive
neighborhoods where anti-Semitism has become a daily part of life
for them. They feel uneasy. Some are scared to go the synagogue or
put their children in Jewish schools because they feel something
might happen.

Netanyahu persuading Jews to come to France is not new. It's a
policy started by Ariel Sharon in 2002. They see it as logical
where Jews are living in situations of peril to tell them to come
to Israel."

As I've been reporting the last few weeks, there is a growing Muslim
versus Muslim war, with Muslim militias and armies killing Muslims
throughout the Mideast, South Asia and Northern Africa. The
collateral damage from this war is an increase in terrorist acts in
Europe and elsewhere, and many of these terrorist acts may target
Jews. Nationalism and xenophobia are increasing in Europe and
elsewhere, and Generational Dynamics predicts that this trend will
continue and lead to war. AFP and The Local (France)

Is Islam a religion, like Christianity, or just an ideology or mindset?

Is PEGIDA a neo-Nazi movement, or just a simple grass roots protest?

Reader comments on Islam and Christianity

U.S. Marines storm Tripoli during the First Barbary War (1801-05) against North African Berber Muslims

In several recent articles, I've been describing the massive and
growing war of Muslims against Muslims in the Mideast, South Asia and
Northern Africa. I've made the point that Islam is NOT at war with
the West, and that the terrorist attacks, such as this past week's
Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, were collateral damage from the real
war, the war between Muslims and Muslims.

The following are some comments that I received.

Is Islam at war with the West?

"I come to your site every day because I believe you
have something valuable to say, but when you make this statement,
you destroy your credibility.

'As I've been reporting repeatedly, there is no
Muslim war against the West. Even in the last week, when a score
of people in Paris were killed, thousands were killed in Boko
Haram massacres in Nigeria, while hundreds more were killed in
Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia and other
countries.'

Muslims are surely fighting against each other - but to declare
the war is only happening on one front is nothing less than
selective denial. Hitler fought the West, but you might remember
he fought on an "Eastern Front" too. Save your credibility sir,
Islam is at war with everyone, including their own
families."

I've been writing about Muslim violence since 2003 -- thousands of
articles. I have, on file, almost 90,000 news stories that I've
copied and pasted from media sources around the world. I've read all
of these, as well as millions more that I didn't copy. In addition,
I've listened to untold thousands of hours from the BBC, al-Jazeera,
and domestic news services.

With all of that input, I find plenty of terrorist acts, but I cannot
find any evidence of an actual war by Muslims against the West -- as
measured by actual behavior, not by the rantings of Muslim terrorists
and jihadist leaders.

As I've described in recent articles, there have been fewer than 9,000
Christians killed in individual terrorist acts in the 13 years since
9/11/2011. Now that's a lot of Christians, but it's not what I would
call a war, except in a symbolic sense. For it to be a real war, you
would need to see Muslim armies attacking Europe or America.

On the other hand, there are militias and large armies of Muslims
attacking other Muslims in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Mali, Nigeria,
Afghanistan and Pakistan. EACH YEAR there are 50,000 or so Muslims
killed by these armies, five times as many killed each year as
Christians were killed in THIRTEEN YEARS.

I want to emphasize what a big difference this is. Individual
terrorist acts by individual terrorists are bad, but they're not the
same as large armies conducting a real war.

In some ways this is just semantics. For most people, there isn't
much difference between being at war with Islamist jihadists versus
being at war with Islam.

I think it's dangerous for the West not to know who their real enemy
is. Those who say that "Islam is the enemy of the West" or "All
Muslims are enemies of the West" are doing a disservice because, if
they're believed, then resources will be wasted fighting the wrong
enemy. Indeed, it's quite possible that that's exactly what the ISIS
and AQAP leaders want -- to see the West waste their resources
attacking "Islam" or "all Muslims", rather than ISIS or AQAP
or other Muslim terrorist jihadists.

Is Islam a religion, like Christianity, or just an ideology or mindset?

"Once there is a resolution of the Sunni-Shia schism
within Islam, it needs to be clearly understood that this
resolution is only the beginning. John's comments make no
provision for dealing with the ideology of radical Islam after the
resolution of their internal conflict (I have come to believe that
there is no Islam other than radical Islam). I can't stress
forcefully enough that Islam is not a religion... it is a mind
set. Islam makes no provision for the accommodation of anything
other than Islam - it isn't just about Allah, it's about Allah in
government, it's about Allah in speech (the "rationale" for todays
murders in Paris), it's about Allah in school, it's all about
Allah in every single aspect of life. Further, to be clear, and
make no mistake, there is an Imam someplace who is willing to
issue a fatwa that is going to tell you just exactly what that
means, and how you WILL comply with orthodox (as he sees it)
Islam, under penalty of death. Understand: there is no aspect of
life that is outside of the purview of Islam."

Islam is just as much a religion as Christianity is. Or, if you like,
Christianity is also just an ideology, in view of Christian Nazis who
killed Jews and other Christians, or Irish Protestants who killed
Catholics.

"John, on most occasions we are in sync. Here we shall
have to agree to disagree.

Grew up in Dearborn, MI - largest Muslim community in the U.S. The
high school I attended was 30% Muslim - now it's 100% Muslim.
Developed an unfavorable attitude first hand - Muslims are
routinely strident, belligerent, and combative. After high school,
I lived in Turkey for a year - at the time Turkey was the most
moderate of the Muslim countries. Living in a Muslim country made
me understand what I saw in high school. I can remember leaving
Ankara in 1967 looking out the airplane's window thinking: "... no
one will believe what I tell them about this place... God help the
world if these people ever get money...." That was over 45 years
ago, and now they have the money to buy arms, and explosives,
i.e. the means to carry out their mentality; and there is no
longer a powerful moral America with the will to stop them.

Muslims are a problem wherever they alight. Philippines, Timor,
Myanmar, India, Kashmir, China, Russia, Israel, Britain, France,
Nigeria, Thailand, Kenya, et al. Virtually every airplane
hijacking since 1970 has been by Muslims, not Christians. ... The
only time Muslims seek freedom and tolerance is when they are a
significant minority; when they achieve a significant plurality,
or majority it is their way or the sword, they have no compunction
regarding impressing their will - Sharia Law - upon all. They
tolerate nothing, it's Allah, or die - it's Sharia for
all. Muslims believe that anyplace Muslims have occupied is theirs
forever, anyplace Muslims have prayed is theirs forever. ...

And Christianity is certainly not without issues, but here we are
discussing the differences between Christianity and Islam. The
difference between Christianity, and Islam is that the embrace of
Christianity is voluntary, with no direct physical harm, or ill
consequences suffered if one rejects the conversion. As recent
events have made clear, in Islam the conversion is not voluntary;
it's convert, or the sword - the conversion is coerced and once
converted, should you desire to exit Islam, it is a capital
offense subjecting you to death. ...

While Christianity has its dark chapters, those are not taking
place now. At this moment the Christian Church is as was given to
us through the Enlightenment and to a somewhat lesser degree by
the American Revolution (the inherent value of life, honesty, the
rule of law, personal freedom, freedom of speech, freedom of
religion, and many more, among others)."

Your final remark about "dark chapters" is where your argument
contradicts itself.

You claim that Christianity and Islam are fundamentally different in
that Islam isn't even a religion -- it's an ideology or mind set. To
support that claim in practice you would have to prove two things: not
only that Christianity and Islam have had different cumulative
outcomes throughout centuries of history, but also that Christianity
could never return to a new "dark chapter" in the future.

I claim you have no hope of proving either of those. All you can hope
to prove is that AT THE PRESENT TIME Islam is producing different
outcomes than Christianity. And the latter may in fact be true, as
the examples you've given illustrate. But that means that Islam and
Christianity are both religions, and differences in outcomes are only
temporal.

Why would such temporal differences exist? For the answer to that,
we look to a generational analysis.

WW II is still remarkably fresh in the minds of most Christians. How
was it possible for the entire Christian German population to turn
into Nazis and create the Holocaust to exterminate Jews, and also to
turn on the Christian French population, the Christian British
population, and also the Orthodox Christian Russian population. This
is still a matter of shame throughout the world Christian community,
and it affects every Christian's attitudes to people of other
religions.

But there is no similar collective memory in the Muslim community.
For Muslims, the destruction of the Ottoman Empire (in 1922) was in
the far more distant past than WW II, and to them was not a cause for
shame among Muslims, but a cause for shame among Europeans and
Russians, including Christians and Jews. Furthermore, the loss of the
Istanbul Caliphate is a gaping hole in the Muslim psyche.

That brings us to Iran's Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq
war (1979-1988), which is as important to Islam as WW II is to the
West. This was a generational crisis war largely in the Shia Muslim
community. The problems that you described as Muslim problems are
actually almost always Sunni Muslim problems. Since Shia Muslims have
had a generational crisis war much more recently than Sunni Muslims,
then have far different attitudes and behaviors. So your argument
about Islam falls apart even when you consider temporal differences
between Shia and Sunni Islam.

Finally, as another counterexample to the uniqueness of Islam, the
shame of WW II does not extend to the Buddhist community, and the
Buddhists in Burma (Myanmar), led by a Buddhist monk, are massacring
innocent Muslim women and children, razing entire villages. The
Muslims under greatest attack are Rohingya immigrants, but the
Buddhists have even attacked Muslim villages that have existed for
hundreds of years.

Is PEGIDA a neo-Nazi movement, or just a simple grass roots protest?

"You interpret PEGIDA as the rise of some neo-Nazi
movement. Writing to you this very moment from Germany, I can
assure you that thousands of Germans are most decidedly NOT
parading around shouting "Deutschland für Deutsche! Ausländer
raus!" That was/is the slogan of the far right, to use the phrase,
and you are wrong to conflate it and them with PEGIDA.

This movement, a grass roots protest, arose in the former GDR
[Communist East Germany], a region that has more familiarity with
totalitarian government than you or I have. They know a lie when
they are being forced to believe it, first under the SED
dictatorship, as socialism, and now under the EU and its constant
cheerleaders and propaganda. If you are located on the continent,
you will be only too aware of this. If you are not, then you are,
as I posted previously, writing with a less than full
understanding."

The article was not about me. What I was doing in my article was
reporting that European leaders are describing Pegida as neo-Nazi or
xenophobic.

In fact, Pegida organizer Kathrin Oertel agrees with my reporting: "Or
how would you see it when we are insulted or called racists or Nazis
openly by all the political mainstream parties and media for our
justified criticism of Germany's asylum seeker policies and the
non-existent immigration policy?"

So Oertel agrees with me that many Europeans view Pegida as xenophobic
or racist or Nazi. My personal opinion is that Hungary's Jobbik and
Greece's Golden Dawn are neo-Nazi, but Pegida is only "a little bit
xenophobic," at least so far.

"To make the claim that this is the echoes of the
1930s all over again is patently false. There is not mass
unemployment, there is not anarchy, there is no hyperinflation,
there is no war just lost, there are no humiliating reparations,
there is no loss of territory, no occupation by foreign
powers. Would you like me to continue? Today's Germany is a
modern, peaceful, prosperous and surprisingly tolerant
country. Did you know it took in more refugees from the Yugoslavia
conflict than all the other countries put together?"

Oh, really? Unemployment rate at 25% in Greece and Spain, 16% in
Italy, above 10% in other eurozone countries. Hyperinflation was an
early 1920s phenomenon -- deflation was a 1930s phenomenon, same as
today. No humiliating reparations, but humiliating bailout
accusations between Germany and Greece, with the same effect. No loss
of territory or occupation, but floods of Syrian and African refugees
evoking the same emotions.

"But given that a phobia is an irrational fear, there
is nothing irrational in witnessing whole areas of the town or
city where you were born and raised becoming nothing less than
foreign enclaves filled with people who refuse to integrate, let
alone be able to even if they should want."

I don't disagree with your characterization, and I might well feel the
same way in those circumstances.

As a student of history, surely you must see the similarities with the
1930s. The Nazis gave very "rational" reasons for their attitudes
towards Jews -- Jewish bankers had made money from the reparations,
Jews had sold out the Germans, etc. One can always find "rational"
reasons for any emotion.

But that doesn't change the point that I'm making. Xenophobic and
neo-Nazi movements are spreading across Europe today, and Pegida is
one of them, even if it's in its early stages. This is a trend that's
been growing for years, particularly since the rise of Generation-X,
and the trend is going to continue and grow.

By the way, suppose you were King of Europe. What would you do?
Deport all the Muslims? Lock them up in camps? Close the borders to
Syrian women and children fleeing starvation and bloody massacres?
Sink their boats and let them drown in the Mediterranean? What would
you do, and why would what you would do be better than what the
neo-Nazis would do?

Massive rally in support of Charlie Hebdo victims in Marseille France on Saturday (AFP)

Criticism is mounting against French officials for not doing more to
prevent Wednesday's terrorist attack by means of closer surveillance
of the two brothers who carried out the attack. One of them, Cherif
Kouachi, had been convicted on terrorism charges in 2008, while the
other, Said Kouachi had traveled to Yemen in 2011 and was believed
while there to have been trained in jihadist skills by al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Both were on the U.S. no-fly list. When
Said returned from Yemen in 2012, both Kouachi brothers were placed
under close surveillance, but after a while the surveillance was
reduced.

Some problems have no solution. You can prove mathematically that
there's no solution to the problem of squaring the circle. There's
no mathematical proof in this case, but there's still no solution
to the problem of preventing "lone wolf" terrorist attacks.

Thousands of young men from around the world have gone to Syria to
learn terrorist skills from training by the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), almost 1,000 of them from France
alone. Many, like the Kouachi brothers, return to their home
countries to prepare terrorist attacks. If the Kouachi brothers and
all others like them were to be kept under constant surveillance, it
would take a virtual army of surveillors, and even then many would be
missed.

It's believed that there are thousands of people across Europe on
government surveillance lists. These lists include not only returning
jihadists, but people suspected of financial crimes, sex crimes and
other serious offenses. Hurriyet (Ankara)

Al-Qaeda in Yemen claims to have directed Paris Charlie Hebdo attack

A senior AQAP official, Harith al Nadhari, is claiming that "The
operation was directed by the leadership of al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP)." He does not claim credit for the attack, but said
that France in particularly was targeted because of the cartoons
portraying Mohammed.

As I've been reporting repeatedly,
there is no Muslim war against the West. Even in the last week, when
a score of people in Paris were killed, thousands were killed in Boko Haram massacres in Nigeria,
while hundreds more were killed in Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia and
other countries. This is a massive and growing war of Muslims against
Muslims that is both ethnic (tribe against tribe) and sectarian (Sunni
and Shia against each other).

AQAP is embroiled in its own war, far from Paris. The Sunni jihadists
in AQAP in Yemen are under attack by Shia Houthi militias thought to
be supported by Iran. The Houthis have made substantial gains in the
last six months, and are threatening the gains that AQAP made before
that.

With so much on their plate in Yemen, one might ask why AQAP would
even be interested in what's going on in Paris. Apparently what's
going on is a competition between al-Qaeda and ISIS. If there are
thousands of young men going to Syria to train with ISIS, those are
thousands of young men who might instead have gone to Yemen to train
with AQAP, which is what Said Kouachi did in 2012, before ISIS
rise to prominence.

AQAP is fully involved with the war in Yemen, while ISIS is fully
involved with the war in Syria and Iraq. Every war has both a
military component and a public relations component, and the attack on
Paris was part of AQAP's public relations component.

It wasn't long ago that al-Qaeda was Numero Uno in the terror
business, but they've been eclipsed in the last year by ISIS. Maybe
AQAP directed the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, maybe not. But
claiming to have done so is a way of trying to return to prominence.
Thus, the Paris attack is collateral damage in the real growing war
between Muslims and Muslims, and we can expect more of the same.
Guardian (London) and Fox News

'Anonymous' declares war on terrorist web sites

Cyber-terrorist group Anonymous, which has attacked many government,
military and commercial web sites in the paste, is now naming
terrorist web sites as their next target. According to a statement:

"Message to the enemy of the freedom of speech.

January 7, 2015, freedom of speech has suffered an inhuman
assault. Terrorists broke into the premises of the "Charlie Hebdo"
newspaper and shot in cold blood several satirical cartoon
artists, journalists and two policemen. The killers are still at
large. Disgusted and also shocked, we cannot fall to our
knees. It is our responsibility to react."

The statement was followed by a YouTube video directly confronting
Al-Qaeda and ISIS on the Paris massacre. Russia Today and Pastebin and
YouTube

Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre

Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau (AFP)

After a coordinated three-day rampage on the town of Baga in northeast
Nigeria, as well 15-20 other nearby towns, up to 2000 resident
civilians have been killed. The towns are now "virtually nonexistent"
according to local officials:

"These towns are just gone, burned down. The whole
area is covered in bodies."

This would make the massacre among the most deadly terror attacks in
history.

There's supposed to be a Multi-National Joint Task Force, a
French-sponsored alliance of Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad,
stationed in a army base near Baga. The base was supposed to provide
protection for Baga and the other nearby towns. But last Saturday,
there were only Nigerian soldiers in the army base, and Boko Haram
overran the base, as the Nigerian troops once again fled rather than
fight. The massacre in Baga began four days later.

Following the philosophy of better late than never, Nigerian ground
forces backed by air strikes are now fighting to reclaim Baga and the
military base.

In April 2013, Boko Haram abducted over 200 schoolgirls from a school
in Chibok. Those girls are still missing.

Nigeria is one of the biggest oil producers in the world. It's
thought that Boko Haram is trying to create a secessionist state in
northeast Nigeria. NBC News and Reuters

Cameroon requests international help to fight Boko Haram

President Paul Biya of Cameroon is appealing for international
military help to fight Boko Haram. According to Biya, Boko Haram has
gone beyond being a regional threat to being a global threat that has
attacked Mali, the Central African Republic and Somalia:

"A global threat calls for a global response. Such
should be the response of the international community, including
the African Union and our regional organisations."

The appeal follows a threat from Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in
a youtube video posted on Monday:

"Oh Paul Biya, if you don’t stop this, your evil plot,
you will taste what has befallen Nigeria ... Your troops cannot do
anything to us."

Some random political and media notes

The media, even al-Jazeera, are providing nonstop coverage of
the events in Paris this week, where less than a dozen people were
killed, while ignoring the Nigeria massacre that occurred in the same
time frame, where 2000 people may have been killed.

As horrific as the Paris massacre was, it was not an existential
threat to France. But the Boko Haram attack IS an existential threat
to Nigeria, and the attacks by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL) ARE existential threats to the countries of the
entire Mideast.

Everyone's been bloviating about freedom of speech, but France has
very strict, very irrational blasphemy laws: it's illegal to deny the
Holocaust, and last year they made it illegal to deny that Turkey
committed the Armenian genocide.

After the 2012 Benghazi diplomatic compound attack, killing an
American ambassador and other American officials, the Obama
administration blamed the attack on an anti-Muslim video posted by
Mark Basseley Youssef, and had Youssef arrested. The Obama
administration has also targeted Fox News and conservative political
organizations with criminal and IRS investigations.

The Associated Press has a policy of not posting anything that
offends Islam, but for years has posted an image of Jesus Christ in a
vat of urine. On Wednesday, AP removed the Jesus in urine image out
of embarrassment.

Qatar may be turning against Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal

Last summer's Gaza war between Israel and Hamas tore open a gash
between Arab and Mideast countries, with Qatar, Turkey and Iran
strongly supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoot Hamas,
versus Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia opposing
Hamas, hence supporting Israel. The differences were expressed with
extreme vitriol, especially after Hamas was thoroughly defeated by
Israel in the war. But Saudi Arabia managed to convince Qatar to a
reconciliation prior to the big Arab summit meeting last month.

Hamas's defeat is only a small part of their problems. Hamas used to
have a headquarters office in Damascus, Syria. But in 2011 Syria's
genocidal president Bashar al-Assad started exterminating innocent
Sunni women and children, forcing a split between al-Assad and Hamas's
leader, Khaled Mashaal. After months of rumors, Mashaal and Hamas HQ
moved to Doha, Qatar, allowing Mashaal to direct the summer Gaza war
from afar.

Now, thanks to the reconciliation, there are reports that Qatar is
throwing Mashaal out of Doha. Hamas is denying the reports, but other
reports are saying that if Mashaal stays in Doha, then he has to agree
to keep a very low profile, and not do anything to embarrass Doha. A
Hamas official was quoted as saying, "Hamas was asked at least not to
engage in any high-profile political activities that may be
interpreted as Qatar still supporting the Muslim Brotherhood,
particularly after the Egyptian–Qatari reconciliation."

If Mashaal leaves Doha, then he has three choices: Ankara Turkey or
Tehran Iran or Khartoum Sudan, the capitals of the three countries
that still support Hamas. Iran is a particularly problematic choice,
because Hamas still strongly opposes al-Assad while Iran supports
al-Assad, and because Hamas is Sunni Muslim while Iran is Shia Muslim,
so they have little in common except their common hatred for Israel.

Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12

Russia is on a long-term holiday that started two weeks ago and ends
on Monday, January 12. At that time, the banks and the stock exchange
will reopen, and it's feared that both the ruble and the Moscow stock
exchange will fall sharply. Russia's economy is being hit hard by
multiple problems: Russia's main source of income has been deeply
slashed because oil prices have been collapsing. The inflation rate
has grown from 6.5% to 11.4% in a few months, with food prices growing
at 15.4%.

The invasion and occupation of eastern Ukraine and annexation of
Crimea are much more expensive than expected. Now that Russia has
"bought" eastern Ukraine, it's stuck with it, and has to provide aid.
Russia has almost no spare industrial capacity, and badly needs
massive investment and new technologies that are not forthcoming.
Western sanctions have made it impossible for Russian companies to
borrow money, forcing them to drain their reserves. Capital is
flowing out of Russia as Russians with dollar-denominated accounts and
assets move them to other countries, fearing that their accounts might
be frozen.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin may have no choice but to impose
capital controls, which would prevent anyone's dollar reserves to move
out of Russia to foreign banks. But the people who would be hurt most
would be Russia's elite oligarch class who, up till now, have been
Putin allies. If Putin is forced to impose capital controls, it may
be a game changer in that he may lose the support of his biggest
allies.

The only good news was an announcement that the price of vodka will
decrease from $7 per liter to $6 per liter. This will be accomplished
by lowering taxes on vodka. Lowering taxes is not something that the
Russian government can afford, but it's thought that with cheap vodka
the people will be happier. Jamestown and Guardian (London)

The historic dilemma of the West versus the Muslim jihadists

After Wednesday's attack, France is on high alert with thousands more police on the streets in Paris (Reuters)

Wednesday's terrorist attack in Paris requires an appraisal of where
the world stands today:

There is already a historic, growing war going on in the
Mideast and south Asia, with jihadist Muslims killing thousands of
other Muslims every month. This is a growing war, and it's both
ethnic (pitting tribe against tribe) and sectarian (pitting Sunnis
against Shias). Christians and westerners killed by these jihadists
are a minuscule percentage of the people killed. (See "29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?")

There are various objectives of this Muslim versus Muslim war:
Iran wants hegemony over the entire Mideast; al-Qaeda linked groups
want to duplicate the Iran's 1979 Shia Islamic revolution in another
country, such as Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Algeria; the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) wants control
of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the entire Levant.

In what is, in my opinion, a deliberate public relations
obfuscation tactic, to avoid having to admit that they're killing
hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims, the jihadists portray their
war as a war against the West, and kill several thousand Westerners
per year. This PR tactic justifies their actions, even though what's
really happening is that they're massacring huge numbers of
Muslims.

Mainstream Muslim scholars are calling the jihadists apostates,
not real Muslims. One opinion writer in Pakistan recently referred to
them as "terrorists in Muslim garb killing Muslims."

In support of the jihadist PR tactic, thousands of disaffected
young men and women from countries around the world have gone to Syria
to be trained in terrorism. Some of them have already returned to
their native countries.

At the same time, thousands of refugee Muslim immigrants are
fleeing the war in Syria and persecution in Africa by flooding into
Europe, where they are tolerated but not wanted. (Similarly thousands
of Christian immigrants are fleeing Latin America for the U.S., to
escape poverty and violence.)

Of the 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, about 1.5 billion of them
just want to live in peace, have families, feed their children, and
grow old gracefully.

Wednesday's terrorist attacks in Paris are certain to exacerbate
these trends.

This was not a random shooting. The terrorists were well trained in
using assault weapons, and the attack was carried out with clockwork
precision, probably after being planned for weeks. They spoke perfect
French, leading to the speculation that they were home-grown
terrorists who had gone to Syria for training. The terrorists
murdered the editor and several cartoonists at the French satirical
magazine Charlie Hebdo, which had published cartoons and articles
mocking Islam and the Prophet Mohammed. They shouted, "We have
avenged the prophet" and "Allahu akbar" (God is great). It's said to
be the deadliest terror attack on French soil in 50 years, since 1961
when a right-wing paramilitary organization opposed to France's
withdrawal from Algeria blew up a train killing 28 people.

Some Muslim leaders are blaming the attack on the victims. According
to one Sunni Muslim scholar, it came as a response to "extremism from
the other side." "When freedom of thought oversteps boundaries and
legitimizes and encourages the insult of other religions, there will
be such consequences." I disagree with this conclusion. In my
opinion, it's the other way around, with the mocking of Mohammed
purposely triggered by the actions and PR strategy of the jihadists.

Wednesday's attack is creating a backlash within the populations of
the West, especially Europe:

First, people are uniting behind freedom of speech.
Ironically, it's noteworthy that no publication is reprinting the
Charlie Hebdo cartoons that angered the jihadists, for fear of a
similar attack on their own organizations. In that sense, "the
terrorists have won."

Second, xenophobic and neo-Nazi anti-Islam groups are expected to
grow in strength, and become major political forces, especially in
Europe. This is a particular problem for France, where 8-10% of the
population are Muslim, many of them disillusioned with the French
government.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the kind of
thing that happens during generational Crisis eras. In World War II,
Japanese were interred, while Germans were not. Today, Muslims are
under suspicion (probably with worse to come), while Chinese are not.

This isn't true only in the West. In China, for example,
anti-American and anti-Japanese xenophobia are also growing.

As the world today goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, we can
expect xenophobia and nationalism to increase in nations around the
world. The world becomes a more dangerous place every day, and the
growing Muslim versus Muslim war is just one part of it. It's only a
matter of time until somebody does something that triggers a real war.
AFP and USA Today and Bloomberg and Telegraph (London) and The Trumpet

Eurozone inflation rate becomes negative, falling into deflation

The inflation rate in the eurozone has been extremely low for years,
as we've reported several times, and in December it crossed over into
deflation, with an inflation rate of -0.2%. The deflation is being
blamed on the falling price of oil. Deflation in Europe is an
important story, and there's a lot more to be said, but it's been
squeezed out by the news from Paris. Maybe tomorrow. BBC and Eurostat

Hamas blasts Abbas's plan to re-submit statehood resolution to the Security Council

US weights cutting aid to Palestinians after ICC application

Bethlehem celebrates the second of its three Christmases

Members of the marching band of the Arab Orthodox Scouts of Beit Sahour march through Manger Square in Bethlehem.

It's Christmas in Bethlehem today (Wednesday). Bethlehem is unique in
that it celebrates Christmas three times each year:

Catholic and Protestants celebrate Christmas on December
25.

Most Orthodox Churches, including the Greek Orthodox, Ethiopian,
Russian Orthodox, Coptic and Syrian, celebrate Christmas on January 7,
thanks to a switch to the Gregorian calendar in 1576.

The Armenian Orthodox Church in Jerusalem celebrates Christmas on
January 19, due to another calendar change.

About 50% of the Palestinian Arab Christian community across Israel
and the Palestinian territories belong to the Orthodox Church of
Jerusalem, and celebrate Christmas on January 7. Jerusalem Post and Middle East Monitor

Hamas blasts Abbas's plan to re-submit statehood resolution to the Security Council

It's been a week since Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas
suffered a humiliating defeat in the U.N. Security Council, when it
rejected, without even requiring a U.S. veto, Abbas's resolution that
would require Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territories to
pre-1967 borders by 2017.

Following the rejection, Abbas signed the documents to apply on behalf
of the State of Palestine to join the International Criminal Court
(ICC), in order to bring war crimes charges against Israeli officials.
Israel retaliated by withholding $175 million in tax collections from the PA.

According to one theory, this was all part of a larger plan. This
theory suggests that Abbas knew that the Security Council vote would
be rejected (which is certainly true), and that he wanted an excuse to
join the ICC. The purpose is to shape the narrative of conflict,
changing it from the "peace process" to "war crimes." Joining the ICC
means that Israeli soldiers and commanders could be arrested and tried
for war crimes when they travel abroad.

As of January 1, the makeup of the Security Council has changed, with
Angola, Malaysia and Venezuela replacing Rwanda, South Korea and
Argentina as non-permanent members. Abbas has said that he plans to
re-submit the resolution, expecting that with the new membership he
would get the required nine votes for passage. However, there would
still be a U.S. veto in that case.

However, Hamas is completely opposed to any submission to the Security
Council, because a successful resolution would "legitimize Israeli
occupation." According to Hamas co-founder Mahmoud Zahar:

"This Palestinian resolution is catastrophic and has
no future on the land of Palestine. The future belongs to the
resistance. We will continue to work to liberate all the land and
achieve the right of return for Palestinian refugees. Hamas will
not accept anything less than all the lands that were occupied in
1948."

Once again, Abbas is trying to calm the waters by seeking a solution
that might avoid all out war between Palestinians and Israelis. As
I've written many times, Abbas was born in 1935, and survived the
horrific 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that following the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
Like most survivors of generational crisis wars, Abbas has literally
devoted his life to doing everything possible to prevent that horrific
kind of war from occurring again. As regular readers know,
Generational Dynamics predicts that he will not succeed in preventing
that horrific war, though he may continue to postpone it.

In fact, the man that most Palestinians consider the most likely
successor to 80-year-old Abbas is the fiery 53-year-old Mohammed
Dahlan, who announced on Saturday that he would form a united front in
opposition to Abbas. According to Dahlan:

"Most of the Palestinian people oppose the proposal
that [Abbas] put forward [at the Security Council]. This was a
hasty and reckless decision that wasn’t made with the unified
consensus of the Palestinians. The proposal was changed a number
of times without consultation of the decision makers. This was a
decision that constitutes a new disaster for relations with Israel
which will bring shame and destruction of the Palestinian
issue."

US weights cutting aid to Palestinians after ICC application

The Obama administration said Monday it was reviewing its annual $440
million aid package to the Palestinians because of their effort to
join the International Criminal Court to pursue war-crimes charges
against Israel. Under American law, any Palestinian case against
Israel at the court would trigger an immediate cutoff of
U.S. financial support. Membership itself doesn't automatically incur
U.S. punishment. AP

The anti-Islam PEGIDA movement ("Patriotische Europäer gegen die
Islamisierung des Abendlandes," or "Patriotic Europeans Against the
Islamization of the West") protests have been growing in size since
the movement's founding in October, but they're also stirring
counter-protests by those considering Pegida to be xenophobic.

In Cologne on Monday evening, 20,000 residents gathered on the streets
to block Pegida protests in that city, carrying banners that read
"Nazis, out!" "We will not let a racist mob run free on Cologne's
streets." In addition, the lights on bridges over the Rhine and the
Cologne Cathedral were turned off. According to the dean of the
cathedral, "We don't think of it as a protest, but we would like to
make the many conservative Christians [who support Pegida] think about
what they are doing." The Pegida demonstrations were canceled in
Cologne.

But in Dresden, where Pegida is headquartered, 18,000 people turned up
for one anti-immigration rally, carrying signs that said, "Germany for
Germans!" and "No to Islamization of Europe!"

Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday

A couple of weeks ago, on a day when investors were in a drunken
euphoria because the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 421 points,
I pointed out that if the market
could go up 421 points in one day, then it could just as easily go
down 421 points in one day. That didn't quite happen on Monday, but
there was a plunge of 331 points, illustrating how dangerous the
recent drunken euphoria is. Indeed, a number of things happened in
unison.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell briefly below $50 per barrel on
Monday, before settling at $50.44 per barrel, representing a plunge of
4.3%. It was just a few months ago that it was in the range $100-110
per barrel. Although lower oil prices means lower gasoline prices,
it's also signaling a decrease in demand, as the global economy slows
down and continues its deflationary spiral.

European stocks also fell on Monday, from 2-4%. The fall in oil
prices affected a number of energy companies, resulting in something
of a domino effect, and a new report showed that Germany is getting
closer to deflation.

The euro currency tumbled to a nine-year low against the dollar, based
on widespread concerns that the European Central Bank (ECB) is going
to start "printing money" (quantitative easing), in order to bail out
Greece again.

In his weekly investors newsletter, investment guru John P. Hussman
says that he's in the camp that believes that "the likelihood of a
market loss on the order of 40%, 50% or even 60% in the next few years
is quite high."

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 2) was back up to an
astronomically high 18.66. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

It's not known even today what the event was that triggered the 1929
panic, except that conditions just prior to the panic were similar to
conditions today -- an astronomically high P/E ratio, and a period of
highly volatile wild swings in stock prices. Motley Fool and AP and Bloomberg and Dow Jones and
John P. Hussman

Europe speeds ahead to a new, bigger Greece crisis

As we recently reported,
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly said that she's
prepared to support Greece leaving the eurozone, and returning its
original drachma currency, if Greece abandons the austerity
commitments it made in return for the 240 billion euro bailout that
has already been paid.

Polls are showing that the radical far left Syriza party, led by
Alexis Tsipras, is poised to win Greek elections on January 25. With
Tsipras promising to renege on Greece's austerity commitments,
Merkel's remarks have triggered a major debate in Europe.

Here are some of the things that various analysts and politicians
are saying:

Merkel didn't really mean it; it was just meant as a warning
to Tsipras.

In fact, when Tsipras wins, he'll forget his campaign promises and
fall in line with European demands, just as Socialist Andreas
Papandreou forgot his campaign promises after a victor in the 1981
elections.

Merkel is right. If Tsipras continues and Greece leaves the euro
currency, returning to the drachma currency, then the eurozone is now
strong and stable enough to go on. The difference between today and
the last Greece crisis in 2011 is that there have been a number of ECB
reforms, including the creation of a permanent bailout fund , the
European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The result is that officials in
Berlin and Brussels no longer subscribe to the so-called "domino
theory," which held that a Greek collapse would be followed by
others. It has been replaced by the "chain theory," which holds that
the entire chain would become stronger were its weakest link to be
eliminated.

Merkel is wrong. Giving in and allowing far-left Tsipras to
renege on Greece's austerity commitments would cause a domino effect,
destabilizing the governments in Italy and France, which would like to
be relieved of their own austerity requirements.

Despite 25% unemployment in Greece, the Germans are not prepared to
make significant concessions to Tsipras, because significant
concessions have already been made -- Greece has been allowed more
time to pay down its debt than originally agreed and interest payments
have been largely discontinued.

The existing aid programs for Greece are set to expire at the end of
February. It's pretty certain that there's going to be a major new
Greek crisis during the next two months, although no one knows how
that crisis is going to turn out. Greek Reporter and Der Spiegel and AP

Surge in migrants from Cuba trying to reach the U.S. illegally

Coast Guard approaches a Cuban vessel with 12 migrants on December 30. The migrants were later repatriated to Cuba

According to the Coast Guard, the rate of Cuban migrants attempting to
reach the U.S. illegally has more than doubled since the December 17
announcement restoring diplomatic relations between Cuba and the
United States. Cubans on the island are speeding up their plans to
make the trip because they fear that immigration laws are about to
change, making it more difficult to avoid deportation. Miami Herald

War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces

We've been reporting recently on the growing war between Muslim tribes
and sects that is threatening to engulf the entire Mideast, and Yemen
is part of that trend. During 2014, at least 7,000 people were
killed, including at least 1,200 civilians.

This last year saw the rise of the al-Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia
tribe, originally from northwest Yemen on the border with Saudi
Arabia. In September, the al-Houthi militias moved south and captured
Sanaa, the nation's capital, ousting the Sunni-led government. Since
then, they've continued to take control of additional mainly Sunni
provinces, and it's now thought that the al-Houthis control about 70%
of the army's capabilities. It's believed that the al-Houthis are
being backed by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The al-Houthis are opposed by two Sunni groups. One is al-Qaeda on
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), currently considered to be the most
dangerous branch of al-Qaeda. The second is the Islamist Al-Islah
movement, a collection of Sunni tribes that have lost power since the
Houthi takeover, and who are now cooperating against AQAP against the
al-Houthis.

There's a third power center -- a growing secessionist movement in the
south. Prior to 1994, North Yemen and South Yemen were two separate
countries.

The international community had hoped that Yemen would be stabilized
by a peace plan agreement made last year in February to divide the
country into six federally organized regions. However, al-Houthi
leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi announced in a televised address on
Saturday that he was completely rejecting the peace agreement. Beware
of any attempts to overthrow the revolution," he said. Al-Arabiya and AP and AEI Critical Threats Project

Iran's Rouhani challenges Khamenei in speech demanding reforms

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday called for an end to the
country's international isolation by curbing corruption and
mismanagement with reforms that are opposed by Supreme leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei and by the Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps (IRGC). According to Rouhani:

"Our economy will not prosper as long as it is
monopolised (by the government). The economy must be rid of
monopoly and see competition.

It must be freed of insider speculation, be transparent, all
people must be aware of the statistics. If we can bring
transparency to our economy, we can fight corruption.

Our political life has shown we can't have sustainable growth
while we are isolated."

Rouhani has threatened to call a national referendum if he can't get
the reforms he's demanding:

"As the enforcer of our constitution, I would like,
even for once, to see conditions ripe to implement a tenet of the
common law calling for major issues - economic, social, political
and cultural - to be put to public referendum rather than
parliamentary vote.

Some 36 years have passed now and this article has not been
enforced even once."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a
generational Awakening era, just one generation past the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. There is
a "generation gap" splitting the hardline survivors of the crisis wars
from the younger generations growing up after the war. This is
similar to America in the 1960s, when there was a generation gap
between the World War II survivors and the generations growing up
after the war.

As I've been writing for ten years, Iran's younger generations are
generally pro-American and not particularly anti-Israel. Iran will be
our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Payvand (Iran) and
Reuters

Far left Greece election victory may trigger confrontation with Europe

Villagers evacuated after gunfire exchange in Kashmir on India-Pakistan border

Israel cuts payments to Palestinians in retaliation for ICC bid

Far left Greece election victory may trigger confrontation with Europe

Torn euro flag from Greece austerity protests in January 2013

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly said that she's
prepared to support Greece leaving the eurozone, and returning its
original drachma currency, if Greece abandons the austerity
commitments it made in return for the 240 billion euro bailout that
has already been paid. During previous Greek crisis events, it was
feared that Greece leaving the eurozone would completely destabilize
the euro currency, but reportedly Merkel believes that the euro has
become sufficiently strong to withstand a Greek exit.

The new crisis may be precipitated with the snap elections on January
25. The radical far left Syriza party, led by Alexis Tsipras, is now
ahead in the polls, at 30.4%. Tsipras has promised to renege on
Greece's austerity commitments. He also promised to do away with a
real estate tax, freeze house foreclosures, raise the minimum wage and
reinstate a 12,000 euro ($14,400) tax-free threshold to help low
earners.

How would Tsipras like to pay for all these enormous social programs?
There's going to be a policy meeting of the European Central Bank
(ECB) on January 22. At that meeting, there may be an announced plan
for the ECB to "print money" by purchasing billions of dollars in
government bonds (quantitative easing). In that case, Tsipras would
like the ECB to purchase billions of dollars worth of worthless Greek
bonds, so that Greece can use that money to pay for all the welfare
handouts. I can just imagine Angela Merkel agreeing to that scenario.
This is shaping up to be quite a spectacle. Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini

Villagers evacuated after gunfire exchange in Kashmir on India-Pakistan border

It's once again necessary to evacuate villagers near the
India-Pakistan border in Kashmir and Jammu, after gunfire was
exchanged this week between Indian and Pakistani forces. Two people,
including a 13-year-old girl, were killed and eight more injured, in
several incidents, with casualties on both sides.

Kashmir was a major battleground for the 1947 Partition war that
following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and
Pakistan, one of the bloodiest wars of the last century, and there
have been two more wars fought across the Line of Control (LoC)
separating Pakistan and India since then. There have been gunfire
incidents across the LoC for years, though it's been relatively
peaceful since a cease-fire agreement in 2003. However, as we reported in October, there was a new
round of gunfire, the worst in years. At that time, Pakistan said
that Indian forces resorted to "unprovoked firing," while India blamed
Pakistan for firing first, and promised "effective retaliation."

In response, Pakistan's military accused India of an unprovoked
barrage of artillery, and the Defense Ministry issued a threat:

"In the past six-seven months, we have tried to better
our ties with India so that peace can prevail. But it seems that
they do not understand this language. I believe, we will now
communicate with India in the language they
understand."

The thing that has definitely changed in the last six-seven months is
that both sides are significantly hardening their positions, and
exhibiting a willingness to shoot first and ask questions later.
India Times and Kashmir Watch

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Israel cuts payments to Palestinians in retaliation for ICC bid

The decision by Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas
last week to apply on behalf of the State of Palestine to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) has brought retaliation, as originally promised by Israel's
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel is withholding $175 million
in tax collections from the PA. This is money that Israel collects
administratively on behalf of the PA in taxes and fees. The amount
being withheld is the collections from December.

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat called the move an act of "piracy"
and a "collective punishment" against the Palestinian people:

"If Israel thinks that through economic pressure it
will succeed in diverting our approach from freedom and
independence, then it is wrong. This is the money of the
Palestinian people and Israel is not a donor
country."

Israel's left-wing opposition was also critical of the move, saying,
"Netanyahu has no real solution to Israel's deteriorating situation on
the world stage. Whoever is weak in the face of (Palestinian President
Abbas) and fails to act to take steps that will protect IDF soldiers
in The Hague cannot really stop this trend." They're opposing
Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, and recommending negotiating with
Hamas, rather than with Mahmoud Abbas.

There's a feeling of déjà vu in this situation. In December
2012, Israel withheld $100 million in tax revenues from the PA in retaliation when Mahmoud Abbas applied
to the United Nations General Assembly to create a state of Palestine
with non-member observer status. However, the tax payments were
reinstated shortly afterwards. AP and YNet

Sweden shocked by arson attacks on three mosques in eight days

Over an eight-day period, mosques in cities across Sweden -- Eslöv,
Eskilstuna, and Uppsala -- were torched in arson attacks. The words
"Go home Muslim shit" were written on the main door of Uppsala's
mosque on Thursday, after someone threw a Molotov cocktail at the
building. Nobody was injured.

The series of mosque attacks follows the surge in popularity of the
"Sweden Democrats" party, a far-right anti-immigration party. (The
phrase "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.)
The party won 13% of the vote in September elections, and recent
polls put the party's support at over 17%. In early December,
the Sweden Democrats precipitated a government crisis by
withdrawing its approval of the government's proposed budget.

Prime Minister Dagens Nyheter Löfven said that:

"I will never act in a way that would give power over
the country's development to a neo-fascist single issue political
party that neither respects human diversity or Sweden's democratic
institutions."

Löfven called for new snap elections on March 22.

However, the three mosque attacks appear to have changed the country's
mood considerably. After the first attack, Löfven was able to reach a
deal with the main opposition alliance, allowing him to avoid the snap
elections without compromising with the Sweden Democrats.

The public appears to have a mixed reaction to the wave of xenophobia
exposed by the arson attacks on the mosques. More than a thousand
demonstrators took to the streets in Sweden on Friday to protest the
spate of attacks on mosques, carrying a banner that said "Don't touch
my mosque." On the other hand, some online forums saw some Swedes
praising the arson attacks. The Local (Sweden) and AFP and
Deutsche Welle

Obama administration imposes additional sanctions on North Korea

President Obama on Friday for the first time formally accused North
Korea of being responsible for the cyber attack on Sony Pictures.
Also, for the first time, Obama signed an executive order applying new
sanctions specifically in retaliation for the cyber attack. Obama had
previous promised a "proportionate response" to the attack. The
executive order "is a response to the Government of North Korea’s
ongoing provocative, destabilizing, and repressive actions and
policies, particularly its destructive and coercive cyber attack on
Sony Pictures Entertainment," according to the White House.

There are already in place numerous sanctions against North Korea
related to its development of nuclear weapons, and so the new
sanctions are not expected to make much of a difference beyond their
symbolic significance. White House and USA Today

European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships

The abandoned cargo ship Blue Sky M on Wednesday, found in the open seas packed with 970 migrants and no crew (Reuters)

In drama on the high seas, the Italian coast guard has rescued two
large merchant ships in the Mediterranean, packed with migrants from
Syria, Eritrea, and Africa. The first ship contained 975 migrants,
and the second ship has 450 migrants.

This is a new development. In the past we've seen migrants come to
Europe in creaky little boats or even inflatable dinghies, sent out
into the open sea with a few dozen migrants in the hope that Italy's
navy or a passing merchant ship will respond to distress calls.

In the case of the two cargo ships, the people smugglers packed
hundreds of people into each one, after typically collecting thousands
of dollars from each migrant, and sent the ship out into the open sea
with no crew, running on autopilot. The Italian navy was able to
board the first ship and take control of it. At this writing, there
is a major naval operation in progress to do the same with the second
ship.

2014 was a record year for both migrant crossings and migrant deaths.
At least 3,072 people died while trying to cross the Mediterranean to
reach Europe, though an unknown number may have drowned without being
rescued. And nearly 200,000 migrants attempted the crossing. In
2013, there were about 700 deaths, out of an attempted 60,000
crossings. BBC and Toronto Star

Syria war deaths increase in 2014, as Muslim vs Muslim war escalates

At least 76,021 people died in the Syria conflict in 2014, up
from 73,447 in 2013, 49294 in 2012, and 7,841 in 2011.

Palestine to join the International Criminal Court

Palestine Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas, acting on behalf of
the State of Palestine, has signed the Rome Statute, on the path to
joining the International Criminal Court (ICC). The intent is to
bring war crime charges against Israel, but there are a number of
legal hurdles. The ICC Prosecutor must first recognize Palestine as a
full member and accept its signature to the Rome Statute. Palestine
can then submit complaints to the ICC, but it's up to the Prosecutor
to determine whether to order a preliminary investigation, and then a
full criminal investigation. In that case, Israel will also be able
to bring charges against Hamas for war crimes committed during the
Gaza war. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post

Happy New Year to everyone!

Fort Bragg fireworks

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions increase further as oil prices fall

Prices of West Texas Intermediate oil fell another 82 cents on
Wednesday, to $53.27 per barrel. It was just few months ago that the
price was over $100 per barrel, and oil exporting countries, including
Iran, Russia and Venezuela, are facing financial crises as a result.

Saudi Arabia is refusing to cut production in the face of falling oil
prices, and many Iranians are accusing the Saudis of purposely letting
prices fall in order to conduct economic warfare on Iran. According
to an article in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) weekly
newsletter:

"The most recent Aal-Saud oil war against Iran,
Russia, and Venezuela, waged at the command of the American
bosses, is the newest and most overt Aal-Saud hostility... First
of all, the new Saudi oil war proves once again that as long as
[Iran's] budget is based [almost entirely] on oil, the enemy can
exploit this weapon in order to pressure Iran. For this reason,
there needs to be an initiative, once and for all, so that
[Iran's] revenues will not be oil-based; therefore, senior Iranian
political and economic leaders must seriously address the
'resistance economy' [plan] emphasized in recent years by
[Supreme] Leader [Ali Khamenei], so that we can neutralize weapons
of this kind.

Now that Saudi Arabia is using all its capabilities to harm Iran,
the Islamic Republic [of Iran] can also use all the means at its
disposal to pressure this obsolete, deteriorating regime. Iran has
many options for harming Saudi Arabia. Because this tyrannical,
medieval family is now at its nadir, all Iran needs to do is to
use a single one of these means so that nothing remains of the
entity named the Aal-Saud regime or of Saudi Arabia
itself.

Increased public protests, particularly in the oil-rich eastern
[and largely Shi'ite-majority] areas of Saudi Arabia, have
undermined the legitimacy of Saudi [rule]. These anti-[Saudi]
regime protests are not unique to this part of Saudi Arabia; they
are [also] happening in other parts of it. Additionally, the
Houthis [in Yemen], who are considered Aal-Saud's sworn enemies,
are at Saudi Arabia's back door [Yemen]; all they have to do is
lift one finger for the disintegrating Aal-Saud corpus to
collapse.

Saudi Arabia no longer has the respect it once had from its Arab
neighbors – and has serious problems with some of them. On the
other hand, its support for the terrorist organization ISIS, and
its operation of it, has spawned great hatred of Saudi Arabia in
public opinion, in both the region and the world. Elements of ISIS
that have been fattened by the Saudi regime have become sworn
enemies of Saudi Arabia. Apparently, Saudi Arabia's free oil money
cannot stop the increase in the weakness of the Aal-Saud
regime."

Other analysts list serious problems facing the Saudi regime:

Eastern Saudi Arabia has a Shia majority, with violence
incited by Iran.

In Bahrain, to Saudi Arabia's east, tension is high between
the Shia majority and the Saudi-supported market dominant
Sunni minority.

In Iraq, on Saudi Arabia's northern border, the Saudis face two
enemies -- the Shia government, and the terrorist the Islamic State /
of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

On top of that, Saudi Arabia is facing a looming succession crisis as
the 91-year-old King Abdullah has been taken into a Riyadh hospital.
The country's next ruler will almost certainly be a generation or two
younger, and all the above problems could suddenly become more
serious. Memri and Al Monitor and Business Insider and Platts Financial

The three most important dangers for 2015

No one can seriously doubt that the world has become a much more
dangerous place in 2014, and so now is a good time to review the most
three most important dangers to watch out for in 2015:

When the "Arab Awakening" began in 2011, it was hoped that it
would lead to democracy throughout the Mideast, but it's lead to
nothing but turmoil. There is no Muslim war against Christians, as
fewer than 2% of people killed in jihadist attacks are Christian.
Instead, there a massive war of Muslims versus Muslims. (See "29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?") That
war has gotten significantly more dangerous in the last year, with the
destabilization of Libya, the worsening civil war in Yemen, the
increased tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the rise of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). That
worsening trend will continue in 2015, and eventually, the Muslim
versus Muslim war will engulf the entire Mideast and south Asia.

For years, China has claimed that the entire South China Sea,
including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by
almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to
the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing
that they would lose. Instead, China is becoming increasingly
belligerent militarily, annexing other nations' territories, and
militarizing the entire sea. This is exactly the behavior that the
Nazis used, leading to World War II. At the same time, China
continues to develop advanced missile systems with no other purpose
than to pre-emptively attack American cities, aircraft carriers, and
military bases. China's population is becoming extremely
nationalistic, and are ready to fulfill the "China Dream" by means of
a massive attack on America.

Financial analysts are positively euphoric, as Wall Street stocks
reach enormous new highs. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock
valuations) at an astronomically high 19.5, high above the historical
average of 14, indicating a huge bubble, and with wild swings. The
euphoria and wild swings are extremely dangerous, and are similar to
the pattern preceding the 1929 crash. At the same time, there is a
global deflationary spiral, with the most obvious sign the plunging
prices of oil.

Any one of these three could explode in 2015, and they're interrelated
in the sense that one of these major crises could be the trigger for
the others.

There is one crisis that isn't as dangerous as I'd expected. I
thought that Ebola would have spread far more than it has already, but
it hasn't. The mistake that I made was that I didn't believe it was
possible for Ebola to spread so wildly throughout Western Africa, and
stop at the borders of Mali and Côte d'Ivoire. But in fact that has
happened, and I'm still astonished that the international community
was successful in doing that.

The Ebola crisis is far from over, and it's still possible that there
may be major outbreaks in other places, especially war zones and
crowded cities. But for now, it looks like the worst is not going to
occur.

UN Security Council rejects Palestinian Authority resolution, without US veto

Hamas struggles to find a direction after the Gaza war

Gaza still in ruins after summer war, with reconstruction promises forgotten (Getty)

Hamas's popularity within Gaza surged to its highest levels during the
summer Gaza War, especially when Hamas promised that they would never
allow Gaza to return to the status quo ante prior to the war.
Militarily, the war was a disastrous defeat for Hamas, since Israel's
Iron Dome anti-missile system blocked almost every Hamas missile
entering Israel, while Hamas could put up almost no resistance to the
Israeli warplanes bombing Gaza. Hamas had to agree to a ceasefire
that was, effectively, a return to the status quo ante. Now
Palestinians look around and see a Gaza in ruins. Promises of
reconstruction have been almost forgotten. Promises to negotiate
opening the borders have been forgotten. Not surprisingly, Hamas's
popularity has been falling, and there is popular discontent with the
Hamas leadership.

Apparently this discontent has spread to the leadership of Qatar.
During the last two years, Qatar has increasingly split with Egypt,
and strongly supported the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, even
providing substantial aid to Hamas. But now, threats from
the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and
from Iran are bringing about a reconciliation between Qatar and
Egypt, and even the financial aid is threatened.

This is requiring Hamas's leader to face some difficult choices:

According to some reports, Hamas is considering renewing its
ties with Iran. This would be a match made in hell, since Iran is a
Shia Muslim country, and Hamas is a Sunni Muslim terrorist group, so
their core beliefs are fundamentally in conflict, even if they do
share a common enmity of Israel. Hamas used to have its headquarters
in Damascus, but had to leave when Syria's genocidal monster president
started exterminating innocent Sunni women and children. The Hamas
leadership moved its headquarters to Doha, Qatar, but now a move to
Tehran is being considered, according to some reports.

According to other reports, Hamas is considering negotiating
directly with Israel. This is anathema to the Hamas leadership, and
it's forbidden by the Hamas charter. But according to Mousa Abu
Marzouk, the deputy political chief of Hamas, this idea is being
discussed by Hamas leaders: "The reaction was, overall, quite
good. There is a new generation of young leaders coming up, and they
are the people we should look to carry out the reforms
necessary."

The above two policy proposals are, of course, in conflict with each
other. But the fact that two such radical concepts are even being
discussed illustrates how directionless Hamas has become, and
difficult its choices are now. Al Monitor and Independent (London) and Debka

UN Security Council rejects Palestinian Authority resolution, without US veto

In what was apparently the outcome of a strategic blunder by the
Palestinian Authority (PA), the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday voted
against a resolution that would require Israel to withdraw from the
Palestinian territories to pre-1967 borders by 2017.

The motion was rejected because only 8 of the 15 members voted in
favor of it, with two votes against and five abstentions, including
the UK. Nine votes of support are required, and so it was not
necessary for the U.S. to exercise its veto, as it had said it would
do. But the PA had wanted to force a U.S. veto anyway for symbolic
reasons.

The fact that the vote was scheduled at all was a diplomatic surprise.
Many diplomats had expected the vote to take place after January 1,
when there would be new non-permanent members, and supposedly a
greater likelihood of passage. However, the PA insisted on having the
vote today, after France and Luxembourg announced that they would vote
for the resolution, which led the PA to believe they had the necessary
nine votes. That was the miscalculation as Nigeria, which had been
expected to vote in favor, abstained instead.

According to the U.S. State Department: "There are a number of
countries that have indicated they cannot support this resolution.
Even among countries that are longstanding supporters of the
Palestinians and that have indicated they would vote in favor of the
resolution, many of them have also acknowledged that it is an
unconstructive and poorly timed resolution." Reuters and Al Alaribya (Riyadh)

After some investigation, there was little doubt that the perpetrators
were Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a terror group that had originally been
constituted in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
agency (ISI) to fight Indian forces in disputed Kashmir regions.
India said it had evidence that government agencies of Pakistan were
involved in plotting the attack, and threatened to send security
forces into Pakistan to arrest LeT members. War was averted between
the two countries only after hard intervention by then US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice.

A conflict was averted when Pakistan promised to prosecute the
perpetrators, but although LeT members were arrested, there have never
been any prosecutions or trials. Now, a Pakistani court has granted
$10,000 bail to Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the
Mumbai attack, and he may be walking free soon, although he may
continue to be held on other charges. There is outrage in India at
this development, but there seems to be little concern in Pakistan
that a major attack by Pakistan's LeT on Indian targets will pass with
impunity.

Following the Peshawar attack, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif,
said: "We announce that there will be no differentiation between
'good' and 'bad' Taliban, and resolve to continue the war against
terrorism till the last terrorist is eliminated." Only a few days
later, that promise is now very much in doubt. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and India Times and AFP

Cameroon's air force bombs Boko Haram positions, forcing retreat

For the first time, Cameroon's air force conducted air strikes in
support of the army against Boko Haram positions in northern Cameroon,
forcing the terrorists to retreat. Though Cameroon has deployed
thousands of troops to the Far North, the region is difficult to
police because of the rugged terrain. Vast expanses of territory are
uninhabited and there are few physical barriers demarcating Cameroon's
border with Nigeria. Many on either side speak the same Hausa language
and it is often difficult to distinguish locals from foreigners.

The bombings follow an escalation of the fighting in Cameroon. In the
past, Nigerian Boko Haram fighters have focused on hit and run raids
on individual settlements. But now Boko Haram is seeking to expand
the territory its holding in Nigeria by taking territory in Cameroon.

According to Cameroon, about 1000 Boko Haram fighters over the weekend
seized parts of several villages, and briefly occupied a military
camp.

In addition, the militants kidnapped several girls between the ages 12
and 15 for forced marriages to the group's fighters. In the past
year, Boko Haram has stepped up kidnappings of young women in Nigeria
to sell them into sexual slavery or force them to marry its fighters.
Leadership (Nigeria) and Al-Jazeera and VOA

Cameroon bombings raise questions about Nigeria's army

A story that received worldwide attention in October was that it took
just 30 Boko Haram militants to capture the commercial city of Mubi,
in northeast Nigeria, without firing a shot.

An investigation has revealed that the city was defended by over 1,000
well-armed Nigerian troops, but that they dropped their arms and ran
instead of fighting. The debacle is being blamed on sabotage by
sympathetic northern troops and some of their commanders who refused
to fight the insurgents.

Just as some people in Pakistan's government are sympathetic to the
Taliban and support them, it appears that there are people in
Nigeria's government and army that are sympathetic to Boko Haram and
support them.

The actions by Cameroon to conduct bombing raids against Boko Haram
positions in Cameroon have highlighted the problem. Nigeria has a
much larger and more powerful air force, but they've refused to take
similar actions against Boko Haram positions in Nigeria. This Day Live (Nigeria)

Greece's stocks plunge as government collapses

After Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras received on Monday what
is in effect a vote of no confidence from the nation's parliament,
Samaras will call on Tuesday for snap elections on January 25.

Polls indicate that the likely winner will be the radical far left
Syriza party, led by Alexis Tspiras. Tspiras is demanding that Greece
renege on the commitments it made in order to qualify for a 240
billion euro bailout that has already been paid. This would push
Greece's government into bankruptcy, and push bond yields up well into
double or even triple digits, making it almost impossible for Greece
to borrow money. Tspiras has indicated that it would be fine with him
if Greece completely abandons the euro currency, and goes back to its
old drachma currency.

Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?

Christians forced out of the town of Mosul by ISIS take shelter in a church. (Aleteia)

There's a frequently heard complaint that while the mainstream media
frequently report on jihadist attacks, they seem to ignore the attacks
on Christians. This criticism was directed at me after this article:
"26-Dec-14 World View -- 'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians".
One person wrote (paraphrasing): "John, my point is that you left
Christians off your list entirely, while at the same time they are
being brutally massacred all around the world. You didn't get it then,
perhaps due to your biases. You're not getting it now." Another
person wrote, "Admit it. You don't like Christians and you downplay
violence against them."

Let me assure you, Dear Reader, that I wouldn't hesitate for a
nanosecond to report on a massacre of Christians by jihadists or
anyone else. So if that's true, you may ask, then why don't I write
about massacres of Christians more often?

Let's look at some numbers. How many Christians have actually been
massacred by jihadists? I went to the anti-Muslim "Religion of Peace"
web site where they have tables of jihadist attacks, including a table
of Christians killed by jihadists. Here are the numbers:

Since 11-Sep-2001 (9/11) -- that's 13 years -- fewer than 9000
Christians have been killed in jihadist attacks, according to the web
site.

Since 1-Jan-2014 -- that's this year alone -- about 30,000 people
have been killed in jihadist attacks.

A new report sponsored by the BBC finds that more than 5,000 people
worldwide died in November alone -- just one month -- as a result of
jihadist violence. This would indicate that about 60,000 people have
died from jihadist attacks per year.

If you put all these figures together, you can see that the number of
Christians killed by jihadists is minuscule -- less than 2% ---
compared to the total number of people killed by jihadists. Quite
honestly, I would guess that in any given country in recent years,
more Christians have been killed by traffic accidents than by
terrorists. Overwhelmingly, the people being killed by jihadists are
other Muslims.

So that explains the lack of media coverage of Christians killed by
jihadists. If fewer than 2% of the victims are Christian, then you
would expect Christians to get not much more than 2% of the coverage.

Once again, Dear Reader, when there is a massacre of Christians (let's
hope that it won't happen), then I would not hesitate to report it.
But what's really going on is that jihadists are overwhelmingly
attacking other Muslims. There's a war going on, and it's not between
Christians and Muslims. It's between Muslims and Muslims, and it's
going to have a huge effect on all our futures. The Religion Of Peace and BBC

ISIS kills almost 2000 in Syria in six months

According to figures published by the Syrian Observatory For Human
Rights, there have been at least 1878 documented executions by the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) since it became
a self-declared "Caliphate" on June 28, 2014.

That figure includes 120 of its own ISIS members, who were executed
for trying to return back home.

The dead included 930 members of the Shaitat tribe, an important Sunni
Muslim tribe that's been opposing ISIS. This is an example of Sunni
Muslims massacring Sunni Muslims.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in Syria since
2011, when Syria's genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad began launching
heavy weapons and chemical-laden barrel bombs on innocent women and
children. Now they've been joined by ISIS in massacring thousands
more Sunni civilians.

And by the way, I should also mention Pakistan. Last week's horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school, killing over 130 schoolchildren, shows that Pakistan is at
war with itself, with Sunni Muslim terrorists killing Sunni and Shia
Muslim civilians almost every day.

Once again, Dear Reader, we are not seeing a war of Muslims against
Christians, although some Christians are targeted. What we're seeing
is something of historic proportions: A massive and growing war of
Muslims against Muslims -- Sunni Muslims against Sunni Muslims, Sunni
Muslims against Shia Muslims, and Shia Muslims against Sunni Muslims.
The intensity of this war has been growing for several years, and at
some point will engulf at least the Mideast and South Asia. Syrian Observatory For Human Rights and AFP and Washington Post

Italian navy picks up record number of Mediterranean migrants over Christmas

America and North Korea accuse each other of internet hacking

Darfur on verge of return to full-scale civil war

There are 2 million people in Darfur refugee camps

I've been following the genocide in Darfur, the western region of
Sudan, since it became worldwide news in 2004, and it's been an
interesting case study for Generational Dynamics. The genocide has
sometimes been called "Everybody's favorite African war," since George
Clooney and other movie stars, and politicians like Susan Rice, Nancy
Pelosi and Joe Biden have all made "Stop the genocide" and "Save
Darfur" and "Enough is enough" part of a very stylish and progressive
do-good campaign.

What I wrote over and over since 2004 is that Darfur was experiencing
a generational crisis war, and that the war was a force of nature that
could not be stopped until it reached a climax.

Low level violence began in the 1970s between two ethnic groups, one
of farmers (the "Africans") and the other of camel herders (the
"Arabs"). At that time, disputes over land and water were resolved by
the village elders, but by the 2000s, the elders had all disappeared,
and the younger generations were more interested in confrontation than
mediation. During the 1990s, Sudan's government in Khartoum delegated
the responsibility of policing the region to the Arab Janjaweed
militia, formed from certain groups of herders. This was an ideal
solution to Khartoum, since it meant that the "African" and "Arab"
Darfuris would have to solve problems themselves, and Khartoum would
stay out of it. During the early 2000s, a series of incidents
escalated the violence, until the conflict became a generational
crisis war in 2003. (A more detailed history can be found in my 2007
article, "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming") At that point, the
Janjaweed militias (herders) became extremely violent, with a program
of massacres, mass murders, rapes, genocide and scorched earth.

Starting in 2006, the United Nations mounted an expensive, high
profile peacekeeping operating, with 20,000 blue-helmeted soldiers on
the ground at its peak. The peacekeepers rounded up all the hundreds
of thousands of displaced people, and herded them into enormous
refugee camps, where they were still exposed to attacks by the
Janjaweeds. Since then, the budget for the UN peacekeeping force has
been dwindling, as have the number of peacekeeping soldiers, though it
still costs $1.4 billion per year.

Now Sudan's government in Khartoum, backed by China, is demanding that
the UN shrink the peacekeeping force even more, or even eliminate it
completely. This is despite the fact that the massacres and rapes by
the Janjaweeds are continuing, with hundreds of thousands of people
displaced in 2014 alone, and with more than 2 million people in
refugee camps. With the peacekeeping forces out of the way, as Sudan
and China demand, then the Janjaweeds will be free to complete their
mission of mass slaughter of millions of refugees.

In 2004, I wrote that the Darfur war is a generational crisis war that
is a force of nature and can't be stopped any more than a tsunami can
be stopped. George Clooney has gone home, and Susan Rice has gone on
to other causes. After ten years, the tsunami is finally reaching
shore. AP and International Business Times and NY Times

Italian navy picks up record number of Mediterranean migrants over Christmas

The number of migrants fleeing from Syria, Eritrea and northern Africa
continues to surge. Supposedly, the European Union was supposed
to be responsible for patrolling the Mediterranean shores
for migrants, but in practice that responsibility has continued
to fall to Italy's navy. Over the Christmas period, the navy
picked up a total of 2,300 people. About 165,000 people have
made the crossing in 2014, compared to 60,000 in 2013.

Most migrants leave from Libya, where they are charged several
thousand dollars by migrant smugglers to make the trip. The migrants
are crammed into poorly maintained vessels, sometimes no more than
inflatable dinghies. However, traffickers are increasingly switching
to a new tactic: They simply have to get the vessel out into the open
water in the Mediterranean Sea, and hope that the migrants will be
picked up by Italy's navy or by passing merchant ships which are
obliged, under the law of the sea, to respond to distress calls.
AFP and VOA

The situation now is that both America and North Korea have hardened
positions, each blaming the other for a fairly substantial cyber
attack. It remains to be see whether these mutual accusations will
settle down or escalate. BBC

China debates banning Christmas celebrations

Owners of Harley-Davidson motorcycles wearing Santa Claus costumes ride along a street to give presents to elders at a nursing home during a promotional event celebrating Christmas in Guangzhou, Guangdong province on Dec. 24, 2014 (Reuters)

Citizens, schools and even whole towns in China are attempting to curb
Christmas celebrations amid a backlash against what is seen as the
increasing influence of Western culture.

At one university where Christmas celebrations were banned, students
on Christmas eve instead had to attend screenings of what were
described as propaganda films about Confucius. Banners were draped
outside the university with slogans that read: "Strive to be
outstanding sons and daughters of China, oppose kitsch Western
holidays," and "Resist the expansion of Western culture."

Schools in Wenzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province, have been
forbidden from holding any Christmas-related events this year. The
ban on Christmas events covered all high schools, middle schools,
primary schools and kindergartens. Wenzhou has been for years a hub
of Christian missionary activities. The city is home for roughly a
million Christians, according to previous reports.

The ban on Christmas events came on the heels of a series of conflicts
between Zhejiang Christians and authorities this year, as the local
government tried to demolish churches and crosses that violated
construction standards. A church in Yongjia county, Wenzhou was
nearly torn down earlier this year. The authority said the building
was not built lawfully and was in violation of construction
regulations. The church was eventually saved after a series of
negotiations in April.

However, an editorial by Xinhua, China's state-run news mouthpiece,
says that there's no need to abolish Christmas:

"The debates over Christmas, however, reveal certain
anxieties behind China's cultural ambitions. Some critics
associate Christmas with a public obsession for anything Western,
while others lament the "shipwreck" of Chinese culture.

For Chinese Christmas fans, the logic is simple: Like Valentine's
Day, Christmas is just a merry time to shop, party and exchange
gifts. Non-Christian Chinese associate Christmas more with the
"Old Man of Christmas", Santa Claus, than any Christian theology.

One reason for the growing popularity of Western festivals here,
particularly among the young, is that they offer an excuse to be
with friends and lovers, while traditional festivals are more
family-centered, celebrated with family get-togethers and feasts.

There is no need to pit Western festivals against Chinese: Chinese
Christmas revelers will still number among the hundreds of
millions who travel home for the Lunar New Year family
reunion."

One reason that the Chinese Communist Party does not want to end
Christmas celebrations is because Christmas is big business for China,
especially through the Alibaba e-commerce web site. For example,
China manufactures 60 percent of the world's Christmas decorations.
Global Times (Beijing) and International Business Times and Xinhua (Beijing)

China's missile tests may signal end of nuclear no-first-use policy

For decades, China's military has claimed a defensive "no first
strike" policy for nuclear weapons, meaning that they would not use
nuclear weapons until after surviving a nuclear strike by an enemy,
particularly the United States. However, developments associated with
the recent tests of the nuclear-capable WU-14 hypersonic missile
suggest that China is now focusing on offensive preemptive nuclear
strikes, rather than purely defensive responses.

The WU-14 is a major advance in China's military capability. A
conventional intercontinental ballistic missile is shot in an arc
higher than the atmosphere, and allowed to fall to the target.
American missile defenses are thought to be capable of detecting and
intercepting attacks of this kind.

The hypersonic missiles under test work differently. They're still
carried up by ballistic missiles, but they're released while still in
the atmosphere, and they're allowed to glide almost horizontally to
their targets at almost 8,000 miles per hour. Because they travel so
fast, they're thought to be able to defeat America's current missile
defenses. The systems provide enhanced precision, speed, range,
maneuverability and multiple-targeting.

In actual practice, the Chinese would launch simultaneous missile
attacks, combining traditional ballistic missile attacks with very
high speed hypersonic missiles coming in at low altitudes. "It makes
the defense problem orders of magnitude worse for the defender,"
according to one analyst.

The hypersonic missile is capable of delivering either conventional or
nuclear weapons. It's thought that China has between 500-1000 nuclear
weapons, stored in a vast network of tunnels. The tunnel network is
often called China's "underground great wall." There are some 3,000
miles of tunnels, hundreds of meters underground, deep in mountain
areas, difficult to detect from space spy satellites. Details of the
tunnels have not been publicized for obvious security reasons, but it
is known that they are scattered across China and are not all
connected to one another. They are designed to withstand nuclear and
conventional attacks. Rail lines and trucks move missiles, related
equipment, and personnel within the network. All the activities
necessary for launch preparation can be done in the tunnels.

Although China has not announced any change to its no-first-use
nuclear policy, there are some signs. China's official defense
documents now make no mention of no-first use. China's president Xi
Jinping made no mention of no-first-use during a visit to China's
Second Artillery Corps to congratulate them on the development of the
WU-14. The Second Artillery Corps has developed the WU-14 with both
conventional and nuclear capabilities, and the same people worked on
both sides. In open discussions of the systems, nuclear no-first-use
is rarely if ever mentioned. Instead, the discussions have been on
the pre-emptive nature of these systems.

This is not proof that China has abandoned its no-first-use policy.
But China has been rapidly building its military for years with a
variety of weapons and missile systems that have no other purpose than
to preemptively strike American aircraft carriers, American military
bases, and American cities, and Generational Dynamics predicts that
China is preparing for pre-emptive war with the United States. It
stands to reason that the developers of these massive military
capabilities would not hesitate to use a nuclear weapon in a
pre-emptive strike if they believed that it gave them a significant
military advantage. Washington Free Beacon and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (Jan, 2012)

'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians

Children in Assam relief center on Thursday (AP)

Indians have expressed shock over the brutality of the barbaric
massacre that took place on Tuesday in Assam province, in India's far
northeast. A group of 80 members of the ethnic Bodo tribe massacred
76 men, women and children and caused hundreds in Adivasis villages to
flee as their homes were being burned and destroyed. Both groups are
a mix of Hindus and Christians, with some Muslims.

India's Assam province has over 20 ethnic groups, many minorities, few majorities and over 50 languages

The attackers were from a separatist group, the National Democratic
Front of Boroland (NDFB), formed in 1994 to demand their own
autonomous homeland, Boroland. In particular, the attackers were from
a branch of the NDFB known as NDFB-S, after its leader I K Sonbijit.
(Note: Boroland is sometimes called Bodoland, apparently because the
actual consonant in the original language is somewhere between an 'r'
and a 'd'.) The Sonbijit faction was formed in 2012 to fight
Bangladeshi Muslims. Hundreds were killed, and thousands are still
living in relief camps.

There have already been a few revenge attacks by Adivasis on Bodos,
and the fear is that the situation may spiral into a full-scale ethnic
war. The Bodo terrorists have apparently fled to Bhutan and Burma
(Myanmar), and India is requesting cooperation from those governments
to arrest the perpetrators.

We've seen this kind of ethnic massacre recently in Burma, where
Buddhists have been massacring Muslims, in Syria, where Muslims have
been massacring each other, and in Central African Republic, where
Christians and Muslims have been massacring each other.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, sex and genocidal
massacres are both part of the human DNA, and the human race would not
have survived without both of them. Times of India and AP and DNA India

Jordan may exchange prisoners with ISIS

American military officials are saying that the Jordanian F-16
warplane that crashed over territory in Syria held by the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) was not shot down.
However, the actual cause of the crash, if known, has not been
announced. ISIS is known to possess shoulder-launched land to air
missiles, and they have had some success shooting down Iraqi
helicopters with them. But an F-16 flies too high for these
shoulder-launched missiles. It's not known whether ISIS has captured
some advanced missiles that Russia supplied to the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad, or whether the F-16 crash was caused by
mechanical failure. At any rate, this was the first capture of a
pilot participating in the air strikes against ISIS by the
American-led coalition.

There are some unconfirmed reports that Jordan is negotiating for a
prisoner swap to get the Jordanian pilot returned. The old al-Qaeda
in Iraq, which was the predecessor to ISIS, was founded in 2004 by Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian terrorist. Al-Zarqawi was killed in
2006 by an American drone strike, but some of his terrorist underlings
were captured and put into Jordanian jails. Several of these
underlings may be exchanged for the captured Jordanian pilot.
CNN and Jerusalem Post

Merry Christmas to all my readers!

Christmas pageantry brings a little cheer to Bethlehem

Christian pilgrims pray inside the Grotto of the Church of the Nativity, thought to be the birthplace of Jesus Christ, in Bethlehem on Wednesday. (AP)

Thousands of Christian pilgrims from around the world crowded into the
little town of Bethlehem in the West Bank of the Palestinian
territories. Manger Square was decked out in white and yellow lights
and a carnival atmosphere, at a time when there are a multitude of
things to be sad about: the persecution of Christians, the July-August
Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, and the war in Syria, which pits
one genocidal Barbarian regime, led by president Bashar al-Assad,
against another genocidal Barbarian regime, the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), led by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi.

At midnight mass, the Latin Patriarch Fouad Twal said that, "this Holy
Land has become a land of conflict." Bethlehem and Jerusalem lie at
the intersection of the world's four major monotheistic religions --
Judaism, Western Christianity, Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and
Islam. Twal called for Jews, Muslims and Christians in the Holy Land
to "live together as equals with mutual respect." AFP and AP

In China, Christmas is for partying and e-commerce

There's almost no sign of Jesus in China, but there are plenty of
pictures of Father Christmas, especially in large cities. While
Chinese festivities are solemn, serious and spiritual, Christmas is an
excuse to party. Young people especially go out to movie theatres,
bars or clubs. According to one citizen, "Christmas is just an excuse
to go shopping, as there are many big sales at a lot of places. The
theme is to have fun."

But it's also big business. The Christmas season allows China's
e-commerce giant Alibaba to play "Santa Claus for the whole world."
On Black Friday alone, the company set a one-day sales record of $2.65
million, a growth of 65.6% from last Black Friday. The Atlantic and Xinhua

Christmas in Pakistan is subdued because of the Peshawar massacre

Christmas is embraced even by Muslims in certain parts of Pakistan's
society, especially among the wealthy and education. Large festive
Christmas markets spring up in the large cities, including Karachi and
Islamabad. Even Muslim children write letters to Santa telling them
what presents to bring.

However, Christmas this year has been toned down across the country
because of last week's horrific attack on a Peshawar army school, in northwest Pakistan, killing
over 130 schoolchildren. Instead, Christmas this year is a time to
wonder why Pakistanis have let this happen to themselves. "It is us
who have failed, not our children," says one mother. "We have to
teach our children to say ‘no’ to wrong. Do not hate anybody, love
your country. We are all Pakistanis." Dawn (Pakistan) and NBC News

In Iraq, it's Christmas in refugee camps in Kurdistan

After a year of the self-declared Caliphate of the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), and the systematic purging of
Christians in Iraq and Syria, most Iraqi Christmas celebrations are
being held in Baghdad or in refugee camps in Kurdistan in the north of
Iraq.

ISIS has conducted operations of ethnic and religious cleansing of
hundreds of thousands of Christians. "Talk of Christmas and Christian
occasions is forbidden under ISIS," according to a researcher. "The
group has destroyed, torched and looted all churches, and barred any
display of Christian faith. They also forced the hijab and Islamic way
of dress on Christian women, and killed several Christian men for
refusing to obey their orders." Al Arabiya (Saudi Arabia) and Huffington Post

Ukraine abandons unaligned status, with intention to join Nato

A protester in front of the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev on Tuesday (AFP)

Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to drop the
country's non-aligned status as the first step towards Nato
membership. According to Ukrainian lawmaker Yuri Bereza:

"If Ukraine had moved to join NATO right after the
breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia would have never dared to
deploy its troops in Crimea, annex the peninsula and then incite,
supply troops and hardware for an armed mutiny in Donbass.

Now it is up to us to conduct necessary military and political
reforms to join the [North Atlantic] alliance. That will be our
iron-clad guarantee against a new Russian
aggression."

This point of view is consistent with many Nato officials. According
to an essay last June by present and former Nato officials:

"Security on the continent has changed dramatically
since NATO agreed in 2008 to admit Albania and Croatia, which
joined the following year, the last round of enlargement. Russia
subsequently used force against Georgia and then Ukraine, changing
borders. Well before the annexation of Crimea and destabilization
of eastern Ukraine, Putin had come to regard NATO as an
adversary. He has also declared Russia’s intention to use force
against perceived oppression of Russian speakers, wherever they
are. ...

Enlargement contributes to security because it leads to more
predictable relations with Russia. Membership has a calming effect
on Moscow’s ties with nations as NATO entry greatly increases the
costs to Moscow of interfering. Imagine if Estonia or Latvia – two
neighbors of Russia with large Russian minorities – were not
members of NATO. They could be under as much pressure now as
Ukraine. But Moscow has reasons to tread carefully because it
knows that an intervention in the Baltics would trigger a
collective NATO response."

A Ukraine membership in Nato would create substantial obligations on
all sides. Nato would be obligated to come to Ukraine's aid in case
of a further Russian invasion, and Ukraine would be obligated to the
aid of other Nato members facing military threats. BBC and LA Times and CNN (June 2014)

France is on high alert after a string of 'isolated' attacks

France's government announced on Tuesday that it would deploy up to
300 extra troops to patrol public areas over the Christmas period.
The alarm has been triggered by three bizarre "lone wolf" attacks in
three days, combined with charges issued by the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) to jihadists in France to conduct
more lone wolf attacks.

On Saturday, a Burundian national who had converted to Islam walked
into a police station in Joué-les-Tours, shouted "Allahu Akbar," and
stabbed police officers with a knife. On Sunday, a man with a history
of mental illness also cried "Allahu Akbar" and used his car to run
down pedestrians in several locations in Dijon. then on Monday, a man
ploughed his van through a crowded Christmas market in Nantes, before
repeatedly stabbing himself with a knife.

The three incidents are unrelated, as far as is known, except that the
third one may be a copycat killing. It's feared that there will be
further copycat killings. (However, it's not clear to me how a few
more policemen are going to stop a crazy driver from driving his car
into a crowd.)

In September, ISIS urged Muslims around the world to kill "in any
manner" those from countries involved in a coalition fighting against
ISIS, singling out the French. Among instructions for killing
civilians or military personnel was to run them over with a car or
truck. France24 and AFP

US suspected in massive North Korea internet outage

Kim Il Sung 101st anniversary in Pyongyang, North Korea

North Korea for several hours on Monday suffered massive internet
outages affecting the whole country, or at least the few people that
the North Korean government permit to access the internet. According
to Dyn Research, which monitors North Korea:

"For the past 24 hours North Korea's connectivity to
the outside world has been progressively getting degraded to the
point now that they are totally offline.

There's either a benign explanation - their routers are perhaps
having a software glitch; that’s possible. It also seems possible
that somebody can be directing some sort of an attack against them
and they're having trouble staying online."

Last week, President Barack Obama named North Korea as the perpetrator
on the massive attack on Sony Pictures, and promised a "proportional
response" at the place and time of our choosing. Many people suspect
that this is a US counterattack, although there's no evidence of that,
and it's being flatly denied by the administration.

Whether the US is actually responsible or not, if the North Koreans
assume that the US is really responsible, then they may plan their own
retaliation, making the situation extremely dangerous. Reuters

UN Security Council discusses North Korean human rights crimes

North Korea issued its usual litany of threats of war and world
disaster on Monday, after 11 of the 15 members of the UN Security
Council voted to put the issue of North Korean human rights on the
Security Council's agenda. The discussion will be based on a report
issued by the UN Human Rights Council earlier this year in February.
The report documents North Korean crimes against humanity, including
torture, abductions, forced prostitution, starvation, and imprisonment
for believing in Christianity.

North Korea said that the US was using the human rights issue to
overthrow the government. It also calls the dozens of defectors who
fled the North and aided the commission of inquiry "human scum."

Among the Security Council nations voting in favor of the resolution
were Australia, Great Britain, Jordan, Lithuania, the United States,
France and South Korea. Both Russia and China voted against it,
calling the resolution "counterproductive." The Security Council will
be asked to vote to send North Korea to the International Criminal
Court (ICC), but that resolution can be vetoed by any of the five
permanent members, and Russia and China will almost certainly do so.
There's honor among thieves. AP and Bloomberg and UN Human Rights Council

Furor in India over Muslim/Christian conversions to Hindu

Outrage is growing in India among minority groups, including Muslims
and Christians, because of allegedly forced massed conversions to the
Hindu religion. Indeed, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) organization
claims to have brought 500 people from 100 Christian families "back
into the Hindu fold" in large ceremonies. At a ceremony on Saturday,
all participants were given a pendant with an image of Lord Ram, along
with a Rudraksh [Hindu prayer beads] necklace.

According to one VHP official:

"A yagna [Ritual of Sacred Fire] was performed and
participants were given pendants with an image of Lord Ram. They
discarded the pendants of another faith. We did not lure any
participant."

According to another VHP official:

"Several Hindus had left the religion on account of
the inhumane treatment they got. They were taken to Christianity
under the influence of foreign money and other temptations. Within
Christianity, they have realized they were facing neglect. Hence,
many are willing to return to Hinduism. Sometimes, it would become
a trend."

The entire world recognizes Indians as Hindus, therefore India is
a Hindu state. The cultural identity of all Indians is Hindutva
and the present inhabitants of the country are descendants of this
great culture."

Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations

Sisyphus

The mythical Sisyphus was condemned to perform hard labor by pushing a
heavy rock to the top of a hill, watching it roll downhill, and push
it again, continuing to eternity. The participants in the cursed
Mideast "peace process" are all like Sisyphus, in that they keep doing
the same things over and over, and start all over again after each
failure. And as I've written many times starting in May, 2003, the "peace process" will fail with
mathematical certainty, and the Sisyphean negotiations will finally
end only with a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the
1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel.

In the latest chapter, Jordan, which is currently a member of the
United Nations Security Council, has submitted on behalf of the
Palestinian Authority a resolution formulated by France that
specifies:

"Two independent, democratic and prosperous states, 'Israel'
and a sovereign, contiguous and viable State of Palestine living side
by side in peace and security within mutually and internationally
recognized borders."

A return to pre-1967 borders, modified by "mutually agreed,
limited and equivalent land swaps."

Jerusalem as "the shared capital of two States."

A 12-month deadline for wrapping up negotiations on a final
settlement.

A deadline of the end of 2017 for full Israeli withdrawal from
Palestinian territories.

Several countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab
Emirates, all support the resolution.

But Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is bitterly opposed to
the resolution, saying, "we will not accept attempts to dictate to us
unilateral moves on a limited timetable."

And the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) also
bitterly opposes it, saying that it presents a false view of the
conflict as one between equal partners with legitimate rights and
interests, it provides no punishment for Israel for failing to meet
its obligations and, most important, it negates the "Palestinian
refugees' inalienable right to return" to the homes of their ancestors
in Israel.

At first, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas demanded a
vote in the Security Council and, assuming it doesn't pass, a vote in
the General Assembly were passage is all but certain, but non-binding.

However, US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that if the
resolution passed prior to Israel's March 17 elections, it would
strengthen the hardliners in Israel's government and affect the
elections.

And so, a vote on the resolution has been postponed, this time until
after March 17. And thus ends the current round of labor. For the
next three months, the participants can watch the boulder roll down
the hill again, after which they move on to the next Sisyphean round
of their task.

ISIS executes 100 foreign fighters for trying to flee Syria

Syria is turning into something of a roach motel for would-be
jihadists who had hoped to join the fight against Syria's
genocidal president Bashar al-Assad: They can check in, but
they're discovering that they can't check out.

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) has
reportedly created a military police force to penalize those who do
not report for duty. Hundreds of foreign fighters have been arrested
and held prisoner by ISIS, while several dozens have been executed.
They've become disenchanted with the grueling fight for various
reasons. Some who escaped complained that they were fighting against
other rebel groups in Syria rather than against the al-Assad regime.
One said, "We aren’t able to speak the truth, and we are forced to do
useless things." Another said, "[If] you turn against ISIS, they will
kill you." International Business Times

"I remember they said the same thing about Vietnam,
back in the sixties. The flags on the ships bringing supplies
into Haiphong Harbor will be different this time."

Another pointed to Vietnam's long history with China:

"Vietnam is no match for China?

Well, tell that to the 5,000 year history of Vietnam, and Vietnam
is still Vietnam standing tall today. Certainly, China didn't
learn any lesson from the last deadly anti-China riot in
Vietnam. Did China shamefully pick up over 10,000 Chinese losers
in Vietnam back to mainland China?

Vietnam - a country like no other, has a great history of
resisting and defeating the world's great powers. Well, bring it
on because the Vietnamese are ready."

Indeed, the explosive Tay-Son rebellion of the late 1770s is the most
celebrated military event in Vietnamese history, when the Vietnamese
troops repelled a much larger Chinese army in a brilliant battle that
united the north and south for the first time. (See "18-May-14 World View -- A generational history of Vietnam")

Another reader, Emily Han, laid out an entire Vietnamese military
strategy:

"Of course, if the Chinese compare numbers and incite
continued Han-based nationalism so to feel good of thumping these
2 regional challengers then, yes the Philippines and Vietnam would
be no match. However, given the world-wide attention and
background of South China Sea conflict, Chinese aggressions are
limited to at the most, "a justifiable return of foreign occupied
assets" and even that will be near impossible to pull off without
chain reactions:

* Australia, Japan and India will not watch and in fact are
awaiting for such act to populate South China Sea with their
warships, lands-based military counter-measures (India) and East
China Sea's naval maneuvers (Japan), starting with a Chinese
ship-lanes closure.

* Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore will step out of their faked
"neutral" interested parties as they can't cover under "salami
slicing" and "cabbage peeling". Minimally, they will shut down
Malacca Strait as part of the economic blockade.

* To avoid the triggering of US-Philippines treaty, Chinese will
target Vietnamese 29 positions with missiles launchers from
warships and follow up with amphibious assault vehicles and
without air forces. Strategically, Vietnam's asymmetric warfare
has sufficient sustainable counter-measures for several months:
every position is a self-defense line against individual landing
and 9 positions have a 50-kilometers radius of coordinated
defense. Within 1 hour of notification, squadrons of Su-30's and
Mig's will directly engage en-route Chinese ships while awaiting
arrivals of 3 Kilo submarines, 4 Gepard frigates and 24 Molniya
high-speed (40 mph), shallow water (500 tons), missiles carriers
(16 Kh-35) to conduct hit-and-hide tactics.

* While Chinese navy must build its offense with replenishment
waves, Vietnamese goal is simply 1:1 exchange of ships, delaying
landing, disrupting re-supplies and retreats (3 days to nearest
Hainan base vs.1/2 day or less to Vietnamese shore)

* When Vietnam destroys or damages more than 2 dozens of Chinese
warships (regardless of their own losses), the invasion will be
called off and the fight will end. China, however may select to
save-face by launching ballistic missiles against Vietnam's
mainland targets to cause civilian casualties and claim victories
- like they did in the failed 1979 cross-borders. Such move will
be ill-advised as it will then, invite global interventions beyond
South China Sea theater."

For the first time, US, Afghanistan and Pakistan will cooperate against Taliban

Pakistan declares no more 'good' and 'bad' Taliban

Shoes lie in blood in aftermath of Peshawar school massacre (Reuters)

After Tuesday's horrific attack on a Peshawar army school, in
northwest Pakistan, killing over 130 schoolchildren, Pakistan is
essentially declaring war on the Taliban.

The Taliban are not viewed monolithically in Pakistan, as they are in
the West. Pakistan's army and the public generally approve of the
Afghan Taliban, which attack American and Nato-allied targets in
Afghanistan, including Afghanistan's government. And they also
generally approve of the Punjabi Taliban, which attack India-linked
targets, usually in Kashmir. That's why the first remarks by
Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif, following the massacre,
referred only to "terrorist" perpetrators, not to the Taliban.

By Wednesday, Pakistanis were beginning to refer to the attack as
"Pakistan's 9/11," and were calling for a full-scale attack on the
Taliban. According to Sharif:

"We announce that there will be no differentiation
between 'good' and 'bad' Taliban, and resolve to continue the war
against terrorism till the last terrorist is eliminated.

We have decided that all parliamentary and political leaders will
form a national consensus to defeat terrorism. We have decided to
draft an action plan against terrorists and act upon it
immediately."

He added that "the entire region (of South Asia) should be cleaned of
terrorism," and indicated that the army will conduct a massive
counter-terrorism operation in the tribal area along the border with
Afghanistan.

Pakistan ends moratorium on hanging terrorists

He also announced an ended to the moratorium on the death sentence.
The moratorium had been adopted in 2012 in the hope of a negotiated
peace with the Taliban. Pakistan has one of the largest death row
populations in the world, with more than 8,000 prisoners awaiting
hanging.

Pakistan hanged two convicted militants Friday in the country's first
executions in years, while warplanes and ground forces pounded
insurgent hideouts in a northwest region bordering Afghanistan. So
far, 150-200 militants have been killed in the counter-terror
operation announced on Wednesday.

However, the United Nations human rights office issued a statement on
Friday asking Pakistan to refrain from hangings, saying that they
would not stop terrorism and might even feed a "cycle of revenge."

The Taliban have announced that the reason that they attacked army
schoolchildren was in revenge for previous army attacks on Taliban
hideouts, which their own wives and children. They promised more
attacks on schools, and they also promised revenge for the two
hangings.

According to Pakistan's foreign minister, "This has shaken the entire
Pakistani society to the core, and in many ways it’s a threshold in
our strategy for countering terrorism." India Times and Asian Age and The Nation (Pakistan)

For the first time, US, Afghanistan and Pakistan will cooperate against Taliban

For the first time, Pakistan has agreed to cooperate with Afghan, US
and coalition forces in Afghanistan in a joint operation against the
Taliban on both sides of the border.

One of the peculiarities of most of the last year or two has been that
the Pakistani Taliban has been headquartered in Afghanistan, while the
Afghan Taliban has been headquartered in Pakistan. This was
convenient for both terror groups, because each side could conduct
massacres and terror attacks and then flee across the border to the
other side, thus escaping the security forces pursuing them.

Part of the new agreement still forbids "hot pursuit" of fleeing
Taliban militants across the border in either direction, as that would
breach Pakistan's or Afghanistan's sovereignty. However, the
intention is that both the Pak and Afghan armies would cooperate in an
anti-Taliban operation, so in theory the Taliban would not be able to
escape by crossing the border. ("In theory, theory and practice are
the same. In practice, they are not." -- Albert Einstein.)

The agreement also provides additional open Pakistani approval of
American drone strikes targeting Taliban officials in the tribal area.
A drone strike on Saturday ago killed five militants in North
Waziristan.

However, in a sign that the era of cooperation may not last, former
prime minister Pervez Musharraf rose from political death long enough
to blame Afghanistan and India for ordering the attack on the Peshawar
school. Daily Times (Pakistan) and The National (UAE) and Dawn (Pakistan)

Philippines and Vietnam launch military and legal buildup to confront China

With China taking aggressive military actions to annex Philippine
and Vietnamese territories in the South China Sea, both of
these countries are building up the military capabilities,
though nothing that they plan would have more than a small
token resistance when facing the massive Chinese military -- until
the United States got involved.

The Philippines aims to buy two frigates, two helicopters, and three
gunboats for deployment in the South China Sea. South Korea, Spain,
France, Italy and Indonesia are bidding on the contracts to supply the
weapons.

India is planning to sell to Vietnam several warship -- four patrol
boats at first, with seven more later. The sale of these warships has
strategic implications for India as well as Vietnam, since India has
oil drilling blocks off the coast of Vietnam. New Delhi TV and Reuters

China's Achilles' Heel -- the law of the sea

China continues a massive military buildup in the South China Sea,
even going so far as to build an artificial island to use for its air
force. But on the legal front, China continues to hide behind
bluster.

Outside of China, there are few international law experts who believe
that China's South Sea China claims, or their notorious
"nine-dash-line" doctrine, have any basis in modern international law,
specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS). China has been nothing but evasive in response to
arbitration procedures in front of the UN Arbitral Panel in the Hague,
initiated by the Philippines in 2013 and later joined by Vietnam and
supported by the United States. China has refused to recognize any
form of arbitration, and last week missed an important deadline in
submitting a statement of defense to the panel. No one seriously
believes international law will affect China's vast military operation
in the South China Sea, but for the time being, the law of the sea is
an embarrassment to China. Straits Times (Singapore) and National Interest and VOA

China: Vietnam and Philippine militaries are no match for China

According to an analysis by China's military, the countries
of the South China Sea are no match militarily for China, but
among them, Vietnam is the strongest, followed by Malaysia
and the Philippines.

Vietnam: In order to secure the islands that China is
threatening, the Vietnamese military adopts two defensive approaches.
First, it establishes a defensive system by combining field and
permanent fortifications and building both combat and living
facilities. Second, it forms a defensive system by building dotted
defensive facilities such as water chalets and bunkers.

Malaysia: Starting in August 1983, Malaysia dispatched its Marine
Corps to occupy South China Sea reefs and islands belonging to
Malaysia, and since then has developed some of them into a famous
tourist resort. To adapt to the battle need in the South China Sea,
Malaysia has energetically intensified its naval submarine
construction and bought two Scorpène-class submarines and the retired
French submarine Agosta in succession. However, Malaysia is very
careful in striking a balance between the territorial disputes over
islands and reefs in the South China Sea and the multilateral friendly
relations.

Philippines. The Philippines, with weak economic and military
strengths, can barely sustain low-intensity battles. So it employs a
different tactic: It's migrated hundreds of civilians and a few dozen
soldiers to the islands and reefs that belong to the Philippines. On
one of the islands, there are only four soldiers and a simple wooden
barrack. Philippine warship visits the island once every month to
send supplies and rotate soldiers, who use M-16 assault rifle and
grenades. What the Philippines has in mind is to accelerate its
military modernization on the one hand, and further merge into the
military system established by the US in the Asia Pacific on the other
hand, so as to leverage on American forces.

Brunei: Since independence in 1984, Brunei has claimed sovereignty
of Nantong Reef at the south end of the South China Sea, but has no
military presence in the South China Sea.

Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats

Weapons storeroom on a floating armory

The explosion of piracy off the coast of Somalia, which reached
a peak between 2008-10, has resulted in a new, unexpected terror
threat. The widespread privacy gave rise to a number
of "Private Maritime Security Companies" (PMSCs) that a shipper
can hire to provide protection for his ships from pirates.

To perform their service, PMSCs need access to large stores of weapons
-- arms, ammunition, body armor, night-vision goggles, and other
military equipment. Storing this equipment on land has several
problems -- national governments don't like having it there, and the
PMSCs constantly have to return to home port to get the equipment.

This has given rise to an explosion of PMSCs with floating armories.
These are fishing vessels, tugs, patrol boats and other vessels that
have been converted by private companies into floating weapons stores.
Sometimes the weapons are made available to third parties for a fee,
according to Mark Gray, a director of the British company MNG
Maritime:

"It's not the Hilton. As well as storing their
weapons, we provide hotel services for security guards who are
between jobs. We have bunk beds in cabins, the kind of
accommodation they were used to during their military
careers. Plus two chefs, a gym on deck and the ever essential
WiFi."

It's believed that there are currently 31 floating armories
at the present time. Many are in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf,
but they might be in international waters anywhere.

There's nothing illegal about them, but they're unregulated, and the
vessels that were converted have special security features. Pirates
or terrorist groups could seize the weapons, hijack the weapons, or
blow them up. A recent statement by the government of India says that
it stood "exposed and seriously threatened due to the presence of
largely unregulated floating armories with large amounts of undeclared
weapons and ammunition." BBC and Oxford Research Group and Full Report (PDF)

The drunken euphoria that I heard from analysts today, after the
parabolic 421 point surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is a
sign of just how dangerous the situation. They don't seem to realize
that if the Dow can go up 421 points in one day, then it can just as
easily go down 421 points in one day. And with the S&P 500
price/earnings ratio at around the astronomically high 19, well above
the historical level of 14, it's only a matter of time before the
stock market bubble bursts.

And that's exactly the kind of situation that triggers a panic. These
swings are getting wider and wider, just as they did prior to the 1929
crash.

The stock market fell 90% following the 1929 panic, but that didn't
happen all in one day. It fell 13% on Black Monday, and then another
12% the next day, but then it gained back 17% on the next two days, so
by the end of the week, people were wondering whether it would recover
completely. But it kept relentlessly falling, and only bottomed out
in the summer of 1932, despite repeated interventions by the Fed, and
repeated claims by President Herbert Hoover that "Prosperity is just
around the corner."

It shouldn't be called the "Crash of 1929," since the stock stock
market didn't really crash in 1929. It should be called the "Panic of
1929" since, after all this time, the day that America remembers is
the day of the panic, October 28, 1929. That's how it will happen
again. These wild swings will keep increasing, until one day these
computerized trading computers ("algos," as they're now called) will
take over and produce some sort of "flash crash," and a lot of people
will lose a lot of money. That will be the panic that everyone
remembers. Then the stock market will partially recover, and people
will cross their fingers, but the worst will be yet to come. Detroit News / AP

US officials are now saying on background that US intelligence and the
FBI have pulled out all the stops to track down the hackers, and
they've pieced together the evidence that North Korea ordered the
attack, although the individual or group behind the attack were not in
North Korea. Analysts have been speculating what the U.S. can do in
retaliation.

However, I haven't yet heard mentioned by these analysts what is
possibly a more significant point. Sony Pictures may be an American
corporation, but it's a subsidiary of a Japanese corporation, Sony
Inc. It will not be missed by the people of Japan that North Korea
has launched a major attack on a Japanese company, and their
retaliation may be a lot more serious. ABC News and AP

Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

On Wednesday, US president Barack Obama and Cuba's president Raul
Castro simultaneously announced the restoration of diplomatic
relations, for the first time since the Cuban Revolution of 1960 and
the Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961. Although politicians are crowing
about this and taking credit, it has nothing to do with politicians,
but with generational changes in Cuba itself.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 2010 announcement
was an "Awakening climax," which means that a generational conflict
has been settled. The announcement occurred 50 years after the end of
Cuba's last generational crisis war, the Cuban Revolution.

All countries follow a similar pattern following the end of a
generational crisis war:

When the war ends, the country enters a 15-year Recovery Era.
The traumatized survivors of the war vow to make sure that no such
horrors should ever be inflicted on their children and grandchildren,
so they impose harsh rules and develop austere institutions designed
to prevent it from happening again.

After 15 years, the kids who grew up after the war begin to make
themselves heard, and this is an Awakening era (like America in the
1960s-70s). They rebel against the harsh rules and institutions
imposed by their parents, creating a "generation gap," a harsh
political struggle between the crisis war survivors versus the kids
who grew up after the crisis war.

After 20 more years, the country enters an Unraveling Era (like
America in the 1980s-90s). The harsh rules and austere institutions
unravel.

Sometime during the Awakening and Unraveling eras, usually 40-50
years after the end of the last crisis war, there's an Awakening
climax that settles the generational conflict in favor of either the
older or younger generation. Usually the younger generation wins
since, after all, the older generation dies off. But if the older
generation wins, it means that a highly repressive regime is in
charge, and that there'll be a civil war two or three decades later
when the next generational crisis war begins.

For many countries (not Cuba), the last crisis war was World War II,
which ended in 1945. Here are some examples of Awakening climaxes
following WW II:

Hungary 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government.
Note that the 1956 Hungarian revolution failed, as Hungary was in a
generational Recovery era.

South Africa - 1990=1945+45 -- the end of apartheid.

South Korea - 1987=1945+42 -- Following the 1980 Kwangu Massacre,
the young "Kwangju generation" defeated the older "April 19"
generation, through a bloodless coup in 1987.

Here are some additional examples of Awakening climaxes that
illustrate different possibilities:

United States - 1974=1945+29. America's Awakening climax, the
resignation of Richard Nixon, came only 29 years after the end of WW
II. Additional research is needed, but I believe that this early
Awakening climax is possible because of America's exceptionally free
political system. The theory is that the more repressive the regime,
the later the Awakening climax.

China - 1989=1949+40. China's Communist Revolution ended in 1949.
The Awakening climax 40 years later was the Tiananmen Square massacre
that occurred in 1989, which was a clear victory of the older
generation over the younger generation.

Weimar Germany - 1918=1871+47 -- Weimar Germany fell at the
end of World War I, 47 years after the end of the previous crisis war,
the German unification wars.

Burma (Myanmar) - 2010=1958+52: Burma's ethnic civil war ended
in 1958. In 2010, junta leaders freed Aung San Suu Kyi after being
imprisoned for 21 years, signaling a general political
opening.

Really, none of this should be surprising. Fidel Castro ruled for
decades by demanding that the Cuban people suffer because of the evil
United States. Now Fidel and his brother Raul are in their 80s, and
they're simply too old and tired to continue to drive the anti-US
fervor, especially because the younger Cubans couldn't care less about
the Revolution. And so, Raul agreed to renewing diplomatic relations
with the US.

In many ways, Iran is similar to Cuba. Iran's last generational
crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the
Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has
been trying to maintain revolutionary fervor by citing threats from
the evil United States, just like Cuba. If Iran follows the usual
pattern for an Awakening climax, then the hardline Iranian regime will
collapse 40-50 years later, or within 2008-2018, which would be within
the next four years. [Correction: Sorry, but apparently I can't add.
This computation is all wrong. 1988+40 = 2028, not 2008. So the time
range should be 2028-2038.](Paragraph
modified. 18-Dec)

Pakistan Taliban crosses a red line with mass slaughter of army children

Pakistan and Australia move from denial to shock

Russia's crisis deepens as ruble falls another 11%

Germany's anti-Islam demonstrations become too large to ignore

PEGIDA demonstrators in Dresden on Monday (Reuters)

For each Monday in the past nine weeks, supporters of the explicitly
anti-Islam far right Pegida movement have been protesting in cities
like Dresden and Düsseldorf. (The phrase "far right" has different
meanings in Europe and America.) The demonstrations have been growing
in size from a few dozen to start to the 10,000 who demonstrated in
Dresden. Germany's government ignored them at first, but the rapid
growth of the demonstrations is forcing it to deal with them.
Germany's justice minister Heiko Maas said that the protests were "an
embarrassment for Germany" and that the country was experiencing a new
"level of escalation of agitation against immigrants and refugees."

Pegida is an acronym for "Patriotische Europaeer Gegen die
Islamisierung des Abendlandes," which translates to "Patriotic
Europeans Against the Islamification of the West." Much of the
discontent comes from the fact that Germany has accepted a
record number of refugees this year, especially from Syria,
and has also witnessed the rise of Salafist movements in German
cities with heavy populations of immigrants.

Many of the complaints are about the economy. One elderly man
shouted: "I'm a pensioner. I only get a small pension but I have to
pay for all these people (asylum seekers). No-one asked me!" However,
a woman said, "I am not right wing, I'm not a Nazi. I am just worried
for my country, for my granddaughter." Deutsche Welle and BBC and Getty and Pegida facebook page

Pakistan Taliban crosses a red line with mass slaughter of army children

Terrorists from Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, Pakistan Taliban) attacked an
army school in Peshawar in northwest Pakistan on Tuesday, killing 141
people, 132 of them schoolchildren, most of them children of soldiers.
The attack, which is being described as the worst in years, is being
described as revenge for the army's operations against the TTP
in Pakistan's tribal area.

During the last few years, the Taliban have splintered into three
branches -- the Afghanistan Taliban, targeting US and Nato forces, the
Pakistan Taliban, and the Punjabi Taliban, attacking Indian targets.
According to analyst reports I've heard, the army has good relations
the first and third of these, but has lost control of the Pakistani
Taliban.

Many Pakistani people believe that the Taliban are good people,
defending their religion, and some even believe that the terrorist
attacks are being perpetrated by Iran or the U.S. to discredit the
Taliban. Tuesday's attack is thought to be so horrific that it will
wash away these attitudes and change minds once and for all. Others
point to the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad in 2008 that took place just a couple of blocks
from the government buildings. That was also a horrific bombing, and
it was thought that this attack would change mind permanently, but
instead, old attitudes took hold as soon as the initial shock wore
off.

Prime minister Nawaz Sharif ran his election campaign with a promise
to end TTP attacks by negotiating with the TTP. As we've described
many times, these negotiations always were a farce, and were treated
with contempt by the TTP. Tuesday's attack should end those attempts
once and for all though, although it has been noted that when Sharif
condemned Tuesday's attack, he referred only to "terrorists," and not
to the Taliban.

Pakistan's major opposition politician is Imran Khan, the former
cricket superstar turned anti-American politician. He's been even
more supportive of the Taliban, calling for an end to American drone
strikes against the Taliban, and calling for the resignation of Nawaz
Sharif for allowing the drone strikes.

Pakistan and Australia move from denial to shock

One of the characteristics of a generational Crisis era is the
enormous state of denial about many things. Just one illustration of
this in the US was the real estate bubble of the mid 2000s decade.
Even though I wrote repeatedly about this bubble, starting in 2004,
mainstream economists were ridiculously clueless about this, and
didn't even begin to talk about the bubble until around 2009, when the
real estate crisis was in full flower.

Pakistan's population have clearly been in denial about the danger
of the Taliban, despite major terrorist attacks every few days.
Some of the attacks have targeted Sufi or Shia Muslims, but
most of them have been political, attacking the government or
the army by massacring civilians. Tuesday's senseless attack
on hundreds of schoolchildren in Peshawar has transformed the
denial to shock.

The terrorist attack in Sydney on Monday and Tuesday has had a similar
effect on the people of Australia. Australia is a peaceful, open,
generous, multi-cultured and inclusive country with strict gun control
laws, so Australia's sense of denial took the form of believing that a
terror attack would not occur there.

Now Australians are waking up to the fact that dozens of young
Australian men have gone to Syria to become jihadists.

The biggest political battle will probably be over gun control. After
a 1996 gun massacre, strict gun control laws were imposed, and over a
million guns were destroyed in two buybacks since then. Now it's
being revealed that the number of guns is back to pre-1996 levels,
thanks mainly to gun smuggling operations.

When a country's population moves from denial to shock during a
generational Crisis era, then results can be very dangerous, because
nationalist forces may be triggered that leads to further shocks, and
then to a war. India Times and Daily Telegraph (Sydney) and Sydney Morning Herald

Russia's crisis deepens as ruble falls another 11%

Russia's desperate move yesterday,
raising interest rates to 17%, seems to have backfired. The value of
the ruble plunged another 11% against the dollar on Tuesday. It's now
fallen 20% this week, and fallen more than 50% since the beginning of
the year.

It may be that the currency crisis is now being driven by sheer panic,
as Russia has several hundred billion dollars saved up in reserves.
According to one analyst I heard, Russia could get revenge against the
west by bailing out Russian government debts denominated in dollars,
but let the corporate debts denominated in dollars simply default.
Since most of the holders of Russian dollar-denominated debt are
European banks and American investors, Russia could make the currency
crisis the West's problem. Reuters

The horrific terrorist attack in Sydney on Sunday and Monday have
reminded Australian authorities that some 60 young men from Australia
have gone to Syria to join ISIS.

China rarely releases similar figures about Chinese citizens, but did
so on Monday, when state media reported that some 300 Chinese people
are fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria. According to the
report, these are Uighurs who have joined the East Turkestan Islamic
Movement (ETIM), and traveled through Turkey to Syria, where they join
the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Chinese media blame "ambiguous
policies" by Turkey's government that allow easy access to Turkey
through southeastern Turkey's Sanliurfa Province, and then to join
ISIS:

"The fact that these extremists can easily enter
Turkey and later travel to Syria and Iraq to join IS is a direct
consequence of the Turkish government's ambiguous
policies."

Turkey's embassy in Beijing called the claims "ridiculous," saying
that they only issue passports to Turkish citizens. They blamed the
governments of China and other Asian countries:

"The illegal issuance of passports and visas and
customs loopholes in some Southeast Asian countries have allowed
extremists to travel to Turkey and then go on to join the
jihadists. If there weren't so many illegal passports and visas
available, there would not be so many members of ETIM in Syria and
Iraq."

A desperate Russian central bank raised interest rates to 17% from
10.5% early Tuesday morning to halt the collapse of the ruble
currency. On Monday, the ruble fell 10% in one day against the
dollar, for a total of 49% fall this year, resulting in rampant
inflation.

Prices of West Texas Intermediate oil took another plunge on Monday to
less than $56 per barrel. It was just a few months ago that it was
priced at over $100 per barrel.

Russia's economy appears to be spiraling out of control, in the same
way that Greece's economy did a couple of years ago. The reasons for
Russia's crisis are:

52% of Russia's economy depends on oil revenues.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been overspending and going
into debt for years, assuming that oil prices would remain high.

Russia's invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea, and its
invasion and partial occupation of eastern Ukraine, have turned out to
be very expensive, and are a continuing expense as they require a
great deal of military and humanitarian aid.

The western sanctions on Russia have made it almost impossible for
Russian banks to manage their debts by borrowing money
overseas.

Russia builds a road connecting Dagestan to Georgia

Russia is rushing at breakneck speed to complete a road connecting
Dagestan, its province in the North Caucasus, across the Caucasus
mountain ridge to Georgia. The road construction is raising alarm in
Georgia, as it will allow Russia to invade Georgia rapidly. Russia
invaded Georgia in 2008, and occupied two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. The road would also establish a land corridor with
Armenia, Russia’s ally in the South Caucasus, and cut off the Caspian
and the Central Asian region, which is rich in energy resources, from
international markets. The highway is expected to be completed by
March 2015. Jamestown

Lynchings of 43 students revive the Mexican Revolution

Wanted poster for Pancho Villa - March 9, 1916. He was wanted in Columbus, New Mexico, for killing American citizens in Mexico

On September 26, a group of 43 students in a rural teachers' college
in Ayotzinapa, Guerrero, in southern Mexico all disappeared, while
traveling to the town of Iguala for an anti-government demonstration.
At first it was believed that criminals from drug cartels had abducted
and killed the students. But later it turned out that José Luis
Abarca, the former mayor of Iguala, working hand in hand with the
police and the drug traffickers, ordered the lynchings. The 43
students were believed to be burned and dumped, though only the
remains of one have been found. Abarca was later arrested by
federal officers and charged with murder.

These atrocities led to violent mass protests in Mexico City last
month. They are inflaming the fault lines of the Mexican Revolution
of the 1910s. Mexico's last crisis war was the Mexican Revolution,
running from 1910-1922, so Mexico is deep into a generational Crisis
era, and overdue for a new crisis war, from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics.

Mexico is like other Latin American countries in that the major fault
lines are between the indigenous peoples ("Amerindians") and the
indigenous descendants of French and Spanish invaders. The indigenous
peoples in Mexico are the Mayans in the south and the Aztecs and
Comancheros in the north. The French and Spanish descendants
generally live in the center, around Mexico City. During the Mexican
Revolution of the 1910s, Pancho Villa (from the north) was the leader,
along with Emiliano Zapata, of the indigenous rebel insurgency groups
in the south.

Ayotzinapa is in a region populated mostly by indigenous Mayan
descendants. The students were called "normalistas" because they went
to a "normal" college, one of those that were set up in the 1920s,
following the Mexican Revolution, to help the poor indigenous people.

José Luis Abarca was born nearby in Arcelia, Guerrero. He started out
poor but got into the gold business and, as a member of the Democratic
Revolution Party (PRD), became mayor of Iguala in June 2012, despite
having no political experience. He and his wife María de los Ángeles
had ruled as "the Imperial Couple." Three of María's brothers were
drug traffickers, but had been killed or captured.

The atrocities and massive corruption are pushing all the buttons of
the indigenous activists. From the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, Mexico is headed for a new war, refighting the Mexican
Revolution of the 1910s along the fault line separating the people of
European ancestry versus the indigenous peoples. This war may spread
into southwestern United States, as there are Aztec descendants in the
Aztlán movement who claim that the southwest really belongs to them,
and was their ancestral homeland. Reuters and Vice News and Yucatan Times

Oil production to increase despite, or because of, crashing prices

Oil prices have been plunging due to increased supply from US shale
production (fracking), and due to falling demand caused by a slowing
world economy. The oil importing countries (Indonesia, India, Taiwan,
South Korea, Japan) are benefiting enormously from the plunge in oil
prices, while it's a disaster for several oil exporting countries --
Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria. Saudi Arabia has announced it
will try to increase oil production, presumably in the hope of putting
the US fracking industry out of business.

An analysis by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) that may
shed some light on what's going on. Even though the price of oil is
plummeting, US fracking production is going to continue increasing,
though perhaps slightly less rapidly than has been previously
predicted.

Oil production in 2014. WTI is West Texas Intermediate (EIA)

The graph on the left shows that drilling permits have been holding
steady, while the number of rigs has fallen slightly. The graph on
the right shows that oil production continues to increase, despite the
fall in oil prices.

The existing wells are backed by hedge funds and junk bonds that are
now in distress because of the fall in prices. As a result,
production in the existing wells will actually be increased as much as
physically possible, to generate revenue at low oil prices to meet
margin calls for these junk bonds.

It occurs to me that the Saudis may be in a similar situation. They
may also have shaky investments backing up their oil wells, and so
they too would have to keep production as high as possible to make
their own margin calls.

This is a good illustration of how deflation feeds on itself, and how
some deflation causes more deflation, almost as if were caused by a
deflationary attitude. By the law of supply and demand, falling
prices normally should cause production to decrease. But the current
situation we're in, a highly leverage debt bubble, is an anomalous
situation. Falling oil prices are causing production to increase, not
because of the oil market, but because of the debt market, resulting
in a deflationary spiral. Businesses desperately increase production
and sales in the hope of making up for lost earnings, in order to meet
their debt margin calls, but the increased supply simply causes prices
to fall even faster, resulting in more deflation.

It's being called a "historic turning point" for the GCC, with
potentially far-reaching consequences, because the GCC members have
stopped quibbling with each other, and have unified against their
common enemies.

As I've written several times in the last few months, the Gaza war has
brought about a major Mideast realignment, splitting the GCC members apart. Egypt was the
catalyst for this split, at two points. First, when Egypt's army
ousted democratically elected Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood government, and replaced him with former army general
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who proceeded with a very bloody crackdown on
the Muslim Brotherhood, Muslim Brotherhood supporters Turkey and Qatar
turned vehemently against al-Sisi, while Saudi Arabia supported him.

Second, when the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas began this summer,
al-Sisi supported Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and turned
against Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. In addition,
Iran supported Hamas against Israel. This created a de facto
realignment of the Mideast, with Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia
plus the Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar
plus Turkey plus Iran.

The newfound friendly Arab consanguinity

The reasons being given for this newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
is that a unified GCC stance is necessary "to stop ... attempts led
by neighboring countries to intervene in Arab affairs." The
two countries referenced are:

Turkey has been "meddling" in Egypt's affairs by encouraging
the Muslim Brotherhood to oppose al-Sisi. Also, in a recent speech,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a crowd of his supporters
that no one can question Turkey's right to intervene in Egypt, Syria,
Iraq, Palestine and Bosnia and Herzegovina -- countries that were once
part of Turkey's Ottoman Empire.