Trump vs Hillary Odds Analysis

Unless something very strange happens, it will be Trump vs. Hillary in the general election. This election cycle is so bizarre and there is such an unusually high amount of extreme variables that it’s premature to guess who the winner will be. Anyone who says they know for sure, and anyone talking about landslide victories at this point are being overly exuberant or irrational.

Below are the factors involved in a Orange Menace vs. Lizard Queen race, and which of the two they favor. I will not be factoring in the slight but nonzero chance that the Lizard Queen will be indicted and thrown in jail where she belongs. As I’ve been saying for almost a year, if that happens everything changes and it becomes an entirely new ballgame. For the rest of this article I’m operating under the assumption that won’t happen.

1. Likeability

Trump and Hillary are two of the most hated people in any US presidential election in polling history, and they’re hated about equally. It’s a sign of declining West when out of 320 million people, the two who end up as your only two options for president are this despised by the populace.

One slight variable in this is Bill Clinton, one of the most charismatic and beloved presidents in my lifetime, second only to Reagan. Americans love this shyster jerkwad and his presence in the campaign will definitely help offset Hillary’s grating personality. I don’t think it will tip the scales over Trump much though, and Trump has already created some very effective ads against Bill that may work.

Trump worshipers keep saying that as the campaign continues, Trump will purposely start acting more “presidential.” Based on Trump’s recent behavior, even well after after effectively winning the Republican nomination, I find this very unlikely. I think he will continue to be the same bombastic jerk he’s always been, because that’s what he wants. Trump is Alpha Male 1.0 to the extreme, and emotional control is not the Alpha 1.0’s strong suit. Much like the Jack Nicholson character in the movie A Few Good Men, Trump won’t want to tone it down, even if he realizes he should. So he won’t.

Moreover, despite the fact that the Lizard Queen is so unlikable, Trump’s image is a tough guy is strong but imperfect. His refusal to release his tax returns makes him look like a coward, especially after criticizing Romney for the same thing, who did release his tax returns, well before this point in the election last time around). Last week, his sudden retreat from debating Bernie Sanders also made Trump look like a real pussy; I was surprised he made such a weak move, publicly saying on national TV he would debate Bernie and then chickening out, and alike to Hillary who did the same a few weeks back.

Advantage: neither

2. Cultural Acceptance

As I’ve been saying for years, America is now a left wing nation, as much as that bothers some people to hear, and this is regardless of our wars or Fox News. Every survey clearly shows that over the last 10-20 years, the average American has shifted to the left on literally every political issue there is with the exception of abortion.

Though Trump isn’t a real conservative like Ted Cruz, he’s still at least perceived that way. His right wing stances like lowering taxes, helping business, and being “mean” to women and immigrants isn’t going to fly with the majority of today’s mostly left-leaning independents. These people are going to find it much easier to vote for Hillary, despite her negatives.

Advantage: significant advantage to Hillary

3. Campaign Skill

This one isn’t even close. Trump is master at marketing and persuasion the likes of which American politics has never seen, while Hillary’s campaign is making a steady stream of comedically and shockingly stupid mistakes. Trump and his campaign have been kicking Hillary’s ass for several weeks now, and this will likely continue. It’s pathetic as it is hilarious.

Advantage: significant advantage to Trump

4. Demographics

Trump does fantastic with white men. It’s no contest there. The problem is that white men in the US are now a minority, representing only about 30% of the country. White men are vastly outnumbered by women, Hispanics, blacks, and Asians, all of whom clearly prefer the Lizard Queen by large margins regardless of her negatives.

Add to that young people, single women, single mothers, gays, and left-wing white men. This means that demographically speaking, Hillary absolutely dominates Trump in a general election. (It’s true that Trump is doing better in the polls with minorities than Romney ever did, but the Lizard Queen’s margin over him is still massive.)

At the moment, the national polls are shifting slightly to Trump’s favor, but that’s only because Trump isn’t battling anyone on the Republican side and Hillary is still battling Bernie (even though Comrade Bernie technically lost a long time ago). Once Bernie is out and his supports go nuclear and then calm down, the majority of them will support Hillary as leftists rally do when facing a Big Evil Republican™, and the polls will likely shift in her (slight) favor once again.

The only possible way Trump could win against Hillary (outside of Hillary going to jail) is if white men suddenly voted in huge, massive, unprecedented, historic numbers to overcome all the demographic realities above. I just don’t see this happening, particularity considering that the majority of white men under 30 are pro-socialism left-wingers who would never vote for Trump in a million years. So now you’re just down to over 30 white men. Unlikely.

Advantage: Hillary

5. Discontent

The popularity of Trump and Bernie Sanders clearly shows that Americans are (rightfully) unhappy with their slowly collapsing society. It’s a shame they weren’t this unhappy in the 90s when America and the West still had a chance to avert disaster, but that ship has sailed.

Trump and Hillary are both equally hated, but Hillary represents the status quo, even going so far as ridiculously positioning herself as Obama’s third term. Trump represents massive change (real or perceived). In the year of the outsider, this clearly helps Trump.

However, this anti-establishment sentiment won’t overcome most people’s core political beliefs. You’re simply not going to see millions of angry Bernie voters actually vote for Trump in a general election against of Hillary, regardless of what they’re threatening. American leftists are leftists first, revolutionaries second. The same can be said of American conservatives as well.

Advantage: Trump

Bottom Line

As at this point, based on the above factors, I’m placing the odds of a presidential win at about 60% for Hillary, 40% for Trump. This may change in the coming months, but as of right now, that’s how I see it based on the above factors.

I have said before that I don’t see how any Republican candidate can win any future presidential election the US because of new demographic realities (item number 4 above). However, I’ve always added to that, “unless that person shifts to the left and stops being a conservative.”

This is Trump to a T. Trump is not a conservative. He’s a nationalist. There’s a big difference. Trump may want to build a wall and keep all the Muslims out, but he also is for government healthcare, is vehemently opposed to free trade, supports government funding of services like Planned Parenthood, wants to crack down on political speech, loves eminent domain, wants to raise taxes on some of the rich, loudly proclaims that George W. Bush lied to get us into the war in Iraq, and has many other leftist views. He also held mountains of left-wing social views for many years and only changed them right before running for president.

As I’ve said before, and I’m sticking with this, you will never see a conservative US president ever again. The only way a Republican can win the presidency in left-wing 21st century declining America is to have lots of left-wing views. This is the only reason Trump has a chance of winning. Enjoy the decline!

I will again state for the record that I don’t support either of these candidates, both would make terrible presidents, and America’s decline will not be stopped regardless of who wins (though I have admitted that if Trump wins it would be a good thing because the elites wouldn’t get their way for once).

Both the Orange Menace and the Lizard Queen support big government, corporatism, NSA surveillance of your phone and email, the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen, the military industrial complex, bank bailouts, the Patriot Act, and numerous other problems directly contributing to America’s decline. Hell, they even do business out of the same fucking address. The Lizard Queen is a corrupt, warmongering, left-wing corporatist. Trump is a big-government authoritarian and nationalist corporatist.

Comments

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I think you have captured it mostly, but honestly I disagree with your conclusion. My view is that it is more like 60% Trump 40% Clinton. Why? Simply because I think this is an unprecedented election. It is not nearly about democrats and republicans as a traditional election, especially so since you rightly point out that Trump is barely a republican. It is a Status Quo verses Change election, it is a “Internationalist” verses “Nationalist election. Now of course the majority of people are going to vote the way they always vote, but it is the margin that matters and the margin includes a very large number of, what used to be called “Reagan Democrats”, which is to say people who traditionally vote democrat (mainly because they are union or union type) but over come their democrat preferences to vote for “make America great again” tendencies.

Trump’s bombastic, anti politically correct style, contrasts brilliantly with the carefully coiffured, hyper politically correct style of Clinton. The former plays will in New York and San Fransisco, but in fly over country Trump’s brashness and “say what you want” style is a breath of fresh air.

The other factors that really are key here are:

1 Trump is SO much better a campaigner than Clinton it isn’t funny. He is going to crush her. He is as good as Bill Clinton, and he has skillfully killed Bill Clinton entirely from this campaign by his recent stuff on his past peccadilloes, and Hillary’s reaction to them.

Along these lines Hillary Clinton has given him bucket loads of material to slime her with. Even if she doesn’t go to jail (where she should go) her campaign will smell of scandal from now until election day. It isn’t just the recent IG report, or her felonious actions regarding email, it is the Clinton foundation. Nobody has even really touched on this yet but it is a night mare of corruption, simony and bribery. (For example, did you know that of all the money donated to the “good causes” supported by this foundation, only 10% actually makes it to the supposed needy? That is a worse record than even big government charitible causes!!)

The further into the campaign it goes the bigger this gap will get. And for some reason Trump seems totally immunized against the various dumb ass things he says.

2. Sanders is a HUGE spoiler. I think there is a general feeling that he will just go away after the convention. He will not. He will keep taking it down to the wire and keep stimulating his base. I predict a 10% vote for Bernie Sanders from a write in campaign in the general election. He does not seem willing to just go away. The media is currently all over him, but he seems to be kamikaze, nothing to lose. He is an old dude, and this is his last moment in the sun and he seems determined to keep his issues front and foremost.

This will result in both a bleeding away of support from the far left, plus it will pull Clinton left in the general which will bleed support on her right too.

3. Enthusiasm: Elections are won in two dimensions traditionally: The width of the population you capture on the left right spectrum and the height of the electroate (that is the turn out rate of “your people”. Trump seems to bring people out. His campaign seems to bring people out far more than boring Hillary. And, notwithstanding your comment in the past on this, the left wing voters tend to turn out far less willingly than right wing voters. There are a lot of reasons for this, but it is a plan fact that young people, black people, Hispanics all tend to vote with less frequency than others. With the enthusiasm gap for Hillary that is a big deal.

FWIW, I agree that it was a YUGE mistake for Trump not to debate Bernie. It would have elevated Truimp a little, elevated Bernie a lot, and totally sidelined Clinton. Trump has cultivated Bernie, since the enemy of my enemy is my friend. BTW if Hillary gets crushed with the legal problems she has, and they do slip in our Butthead vice president as the candidate rather than Bernie I predict cities burning all over America, and I predict that not only with Trump eviscerate Biden in the debates, but he will totally crush him in the general (mainly because half the democrat electorate won’t turn out.)

As to which presidency would be better? Both would be terrible. However, Hillary’s would be irredeemably terrible. There are some things on Trump’s platform that would slow the decline. For example, his tax plans were they, at least in part, implemented, would improve things quite a bit, his supreme court judges will be much better, and that is important, and I think his position on immigration would benefit the American workforce. However, his ideas about trade deals (like a 45% tariff on China) are unmitigated disasters.

So both terrible, but IMHO, Trump is the less terrible of the two.

But I also agree with you that this whole thing is a crap shoot. It could change in one news cycle. So I have to say this: politicians are all corrupt scumbags looking to steal our stuff for their own self aggrandizement. However, one thing you have to say for Trump and Bernie is at least thing time they will give us a fun show to watch.

Now of course the majority of people are going to vote the way they always vote, but it is the margin that matters and the margin includes a very large number of, what used to be called “Reagan Democrats”, which is to say people who traditionally vote democrat (mainly because they are union or union type) but over come their democrat preferences to vote for “make America great again” tendencies.

I said that in the article, but these crossover people would have to vote in massive, historically unprecedented numbers in order to make even a small difference. Possible? Yeah! More than likely? No.

The former plays will in New York and San Fransisco, but in fly over country Trump’s brashness and “say what you want” style is a breath of fresh air.

Numbers again.. Flyover country has far less population the the left-wing coasts. Once again, flyover people have a huge hurdle to overcome.

> I said that in the article, but these crossover people would have to vote in massive, historically unprecedented numbers

Less than you might imagine because of the nature of the electoral college and the extreme closeness of many states. Based on Obama/Romney 2012 a 5 percentage point swing in five key states is all it takes. And remember this is a swing in a combination of horizontal (that is breadth of ideological coverage) and height (voter turnout.) Hillary is significantly disadvantaged in both these areas because Bernie pulls her far to the left and also guillotines the very far left, and her boring “more of the same” campaign verse Trump’s exciting engaging campaign disadvantages her on turn out. (Dare I call it Trump’s “hope and change” campaign?)

A swing of this size is FAR from unprecedented in American presidential elections.

BTW, regarding Trump’s policy, I just recently listened to his speech on energy policy. His policy is basically “get Washington out of the way, decrease regulation,” For example he said “75 percent of our rules and regulations are bad for us.” . I think that is a gross underestimate, but these are not the sort of things one would hear dropping from the lips of Hillary Clinton, who wants to regulate the coal industry out of business.

To be clear, I’d rather have Gary Johnson. But the American people was that as much as they want a ghost pepper enema.

BD, I’ve learned a lot from you and am normally in agreement with about 90% of your work. You’re an intelligent dude and like most intelligent guys you’re led by logic and reason which by default creates an emotional blindspot.

Two things…

#1. Emotions Trumps Intelligence: This election is NOT about intelligence (the vast majority of Americans are stupid), it’s about Emotions (Americans are ruled by Fears and Lies). The only thing you left out is the “Obama factor”…he will campaign for Hillary making the election more interesting. But, in the end, Trump wins.

#2. Sexism Trumps Feminism: Why will Trump win? Although feminism has replaced sexism…for the lower and middle class..In the upper class, sexism is alive and well. This is the primary reason Trump can get away with being so sexist. The other hidden factor is the Patriarchy. This country has always and will always be ran by men. Your vote is an illusion of power. If necessary, they will Lie, Cheat and Steal to win… In other words, change the rules, in the middle of the game, to get the desired outcome. Trump will win the election (guaranteed).

Hillary will win in a landslide, if anyone thinks otherwise I beg you to bet on it because you will become very rich – the odds of betting markets are heavily in favor of Hilldog (as they should be). It won’t be close.

People here are going to the trouble of explaining why they think a certain outcome is likely. Why don’t you join in? Asserting it doesn’t add anything to the conversation.

Now consider this: anyone who has the slightest familiarity with computer security and the email set up the Hillary Clinton had, knows for certain that every government security agency in the world hacked those servers. Frankly the set up was pathetic. I could have hacked it myself if I had been looking for the cost of a bottle of vodka and a cheap hooker (to get the password….)

The Russians are, apparently, debating whether to release the copies they have of these emails. This is terrifying on several important levels. First of all, her gross negligence means that the Russians get to choose the next President. Remember, that the Russians not only have the emails the FBI have, but they have all of them, including the ones she deleted because they were “personal”. FWIW, deleting emails in this fashion is a felony. I know, I have had email discovery against me, and they will warn you up and down about this. Only a fool would think that those 30,000 emails deleted contained her yoga schedule and wedding plans.

So it is almost worse if the Russians don’t release them. Because if Hillary became president and they have all that blackmail material, then Putin becomes the puppet master of the President of the United States.

This is an aspect that, AFAIK, has not been discussed in the media, and it is frankly terrifying.

There are a lot of reasons that Trump doesn’t really stand a chance but I think the simplest way to break it down is through demographics. Namely, women and Latinos. Neither group will support Trump enough to allow for a tight race.

Also, I think there’s a good chance the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (who is my candidate of choice, and who I’d love to hear Caleb’s opinion on) will siphon a substantial amount of votes from Trump.

I never though Romney stood a chance against Obama (McCain certainly didn’t), and I don’t think the odds are very high that the GOP will put up a competitive candidate 8 years from now when they have another chance to win. I’m predicting Corey Booker will run and win as a democrat… saw the dude speak once and he’s incredible. I say all of this because of three developments that have taken place, and that I expect to more or less continue: 1) the American voting public has, in aggregate, moved to the left, 2) the Democratic parter has moved to the middle, and, 3) the GOP has lost its damn mind (saying it has moved to the right doesn’t really illustrate what has happened).

@Joe says
> Namely, women and Latinos. Neither group will support Trump enough to allow for a tight race.

I think the media’s portrayal of this is very skewed. Latinos are not some group of automatons who mindlessly vote on immigration issues. They are the same as everyone else in the sense that their primary concerns are jobs, schools, and the economy. Certainly immigration might be a bigger deal for them, but remember Trump doesn’t need too many Latinos to turn states like Colorado, Florida and Nevada.

Women aren’t much different. The ones who are outraged by his supposedly terrible remarks are the ones who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.

Remember, the base of Trump is blue collar workers. That is who is attracted by the “Chinese and Mexicans are stealing our jobs” meme, and these guys, including Latinos are traditionally democratic voters. I think we will be surprised (as we have been in several polls) of how much of Clinton’s lunch he eats here.

In regards to women also, the primary attack vector Clinton has on this has been utterly neutralized by Trump’s skillful handling of it. If he plays it right he can make himself the pro woman candidate. Again, though, he doesn’t need to turn too many women.

> Also, I think there’s a good chance the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson

I don’t agree. I am sure he’ll get a little kick, but the main organizers of the republican NeverTrump brigade are NeoCons like Bill Kristol. They will never support a non-interventionist like the LP.

BTW,, the press continues to be a source of amusement for me on this. In this recent article from the AP they ask the question “Can Trump be trusted with the CIA secret briefings”. The bald faced chutzpah of such a question in light of the fact that the IG report tells us of Clinton’s gross negligence with respect to National Security, and the plain fact that she exposed to foreign governments thousands of secret documents, and dozens of documents so secret they can’t even be talked about, is nothing short of hysterical.

Less than you might imagine because of the nature of the electoral college and the extreme closeness of many states. Based on Obama/Romney 2012 a 5 percentage point swing in five key states is all it takes.

That is true. However the nation has swing even further to the left since 2012, and likely more new young people (read: left wingers) are going to be voting this time around.

A swing of this size is FAR from unprecedented in American presidential elections.

I’m not talking about a large swing in voter turnout or political leanings. I’m talking specifically about right-wing white men turning out in literally double or triple their usual numbers in over to overcome racial and gender demographics. That would be unprecedented.

But is it possible? Hell yes! White men are really pissed off. Like I said, I gave Trump a 40% chance of a win. That’s a lot! And my estimate may climb in the later months if what you’re saying turns out to be true. You could be right.

This election is NOT about intelligence (the vast majority of Americans are stupid), it’s about Emotions (Americans are ruled by Fears and Lies).

I know. Every election is about emotions. That’s why America is so fucked up.

In the upper class, sexism is alive and well. This is the primary reason Trump can get away with being so sexist.

The upper class is a far smaller voting block than the lower and middle classes.

Your vote is an illusion of power. If necessary, they will Lie, Cheat and Steal to win… In other words, change the rules, in the middle of the game, to get the desired outcome.

Correct…for Hillary. The wealthy = the establishment and the establishment loves Hillary and hates Trump. You’re making my point for me.

The Russians are, apparently, debating whether to release the copies they have of these emails. This is terrifying on several important levels.

Hillary Fucking Clinton is the single most corrupt, evil monster in high-end American politics in my lifetime. Worse than Nixon. Worse than Dick Cheney. If she actually becomes president it’s serves America right for letting this lizard get this far. I could care less.

There are a lot of reasons that Trump doesn’t really stand a chance but I think the simplest way to break it down is through demographics. Namely, women and Latinos.

Correct. Though again I will say that he does stand a chance. White men could indeed mobilize in ways we’ve never seen them do so. I just think the odds of this actually happening are lower than 50%.

Also, I think there’s a good chance the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (who is my candidate of choice, and who I’d love to hear Caleb’s opinion on) will siphon a substantial amount of votes from Trump.

He will. But my guess it it will be less than 5-7% at BEST. Certainly enough to turn a tight election though. Good point.

My opinion of Gary Johnson is that he’s awesome. He has a few teeny tiny left leanings, but he’s 97% libertarian which is good enough for me. Of course he’ll never win anything major so it’s irrelevant.

I don’t think the odds are very high that the GOP will put up a competitive candidate 8 years from now when they have another chance to win.

I agree. The Republican party has has essentially been destroyed at the presidential level since 2008. They’re fucked.

1) the American voting public has, in aggregate, moved to the left, 2) the Democratic parter has moved to the middle, and, 3) the GOP has lost its damn mind (saying it has moved to the right doesn’t really illustrate what has happened).

Correct and accurate on all three counts.

If he plays it right Trump can make himself the pro woman candidate.

This is pro-Trump fantasy. Trump will NOT do this, for reasons I described in the article. He either can’t do what necessary to look like this kind of man because of his personality, or he secretly doesn’t want to.

@Caleb Jones
>> If he plays it right Trump can make himself the pro woman candidate.
> This is pro-Trump fantasy. Trump will NOT do this, for reasons I described in the article.

Yeah, I think my point didn’t come across clearly enough. I am not suggesting for one second that Trump will change. He won’t. Honestly, I think his unwillingness to change is part of his appeal to many people. His resistance to the political correct weaseling of politicians is something people seem to like about him.

But he is all talk and bluster. He talks about women in terms of their looks, and he talks like a red blooded man. Of course women are “officially” offended by this. But those of us who know women know that the vast majority of them do judge themselves by their looks, encourage men to do so, and they much, much, prefer red blooded men to wimpy pussy boys like Obama, Kerry and Romney. Women might not know it intellectually, but they do know it viscerally, and they will vote with their viscera not their mind (as most Americans do.)

So I am by no means suggesting Trump will change into a Feminist icon, all I am saying is that Hillary’s “women card” credentials are so tarnished because of the way Trump has played the “enabler” card that hie looks pretty good in comparison.

As with everything in this election, it is not that Trump is good, he isn’t he is terrible, but Hillary is significantly worse, even here, in her own wheelhouse.

What I don’t get is why is it in the 90’s that that was the last time to save the USA/West? From your book, you said that even Schwarzeneger became less masculine to fit in with the times. However, that just tells me that it’s a switch that one flips on/off as needed (usually to make money.)

What I don’t get is why is it in the 90’s that that was the last time to save the USA/West?

Oh, so many reasons, more than I can list here. Just off the top of my head:

1. In the 1995 (to pick a random year in the 90s) we had begun the shift to the left. In 2016 we’re knee-deep in it and it’s getting worse.

2. In 1995 we were only $4 trillion in debt. That’s a workable number. Now we’re at $19 trillion and rising faster than even in the 90s, not to mention our unfunded liabilities on top of that. Unworkable. We’re fucked.

4. In 1995 we weren’t wasting trillions of dollars on stupid wars that will never end. Now we are.

5. In 1995 teenage girls having babies, eagerly supported by the culture, taxpayers, and daycare centers in high schools for teenagers, wasn’t a thing. Today it’s the norm, here to stay, and is never going away.

Soooo many more reasons I could list. In the 90s things were bad, but they were still workable in that we could have turned things around if we had worked hard at it. Ross Perot was our last shot.

Today we can’t turn anything around. All we can do is hasten the end so we can reorg everything. (Which in a way, makes a Hillary presidency a good thing.)

“This just in. 71% of Democrats and 50% of all voters would still vote for Hillary even if she was indicted.”

I read this and I thought : “Wow. How can people be like that.” When I read that new report on Hillary emails issue my first reaction was “oh, she is screwed now”. It did nothing. Incredible. People want the corrupt person there.

“White men could indeed mobilize in ways we’ve never seen them do so. I just think the odds of this actually happening are lower than 50%.”

I don’t think that is very likely to happen either. But if there is one thing that can help this happening is people seeing black muslims chasing and tackling white trump supporters at his rallies: