Playoff Projection: Stanford looks for an opening

Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan (8) looks to run against Washington in the fourth quarter Saturday at Stanford Stadium. The Cardinal defeated the Huskies 31-28, and this week moved into fifth place in the Football Four Playoff Projection.(Photo: Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports)

The Football Four Playoff Playoff Projection panel apparently doesn't believe in the transitive property of college football, but it doesn't believe as much in Georgia as it did a week ago, either.

The transitive property would suggest that Oregon, which in September beat Tennessee by 42 more points than Georgia did Saturday, might get a boost in the eyes of the panel. Instead the Ducks held steady, finishing second in the panel's voting for the fifth consecutive week and gaining one voting point.

But the panel, made up of colleagues across USA TODAY Sports properties, did react to Georgia's narrow escape in one way: Three panelists took votes away from the Bulldogs, leaving Dan Shanoff as the only panelist with Georgia in his top five (albeit at No. 1). "Close call or not," he said, "no team has a better résumé."

Panelist George Schroeder, meanwhile, said, "Tennessee playing at Oregon or an injury-depleted Georgia at Tennessee are two very different propositions. But we all compare the scores, anyway, and those two results combined should cause us to reevaluate Oregon and Georgia."

In the wake of Stanford's 31-28 win against previously unbeaten Washington, three additional panelists placed Stanford in their top four. The Cardinal gained votes for the third consecutive week and for the first time this season moved into the fifth-place spot in the projection.

Aside from Georgia, Ohio State lost the most voting points (two) this week, despite a win against at previously unbeaten Northwestern on Saturday. Panelist Dan Wolken said he put Ohio State ahead of Georgia this week based on the win at Northwestern but noted, "The Buckeyes are in a pretty tenuous position. They need to keep winning because the schedule is so weak."

Ohio State is in fourth place for the fifth consecutive week, but its hold on the No. 4 spot is at a season-low three voting points.

Alabama's vote total was unchanged, Oregon gained a point for the third consecutive week and Clemson lost one point. Despite the small shifts, however, the four-team projection stayed the same from the previous five weeks.

The Playoff Projection is intended to show what the College Football Playoff pairings might be if they were to be set today. This is purely a mock selection with no bearing on any official polls, rankings or standings.

The panel's projections will be published each week during the 2013 season, just like the BCS Standings that debut October 20.

Based on the votes of our 16-person panel, if the playoff were to be set today, the semifinal pairings would be:

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State

No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Clemson

Four points are awarded for a first-place vote, three points for a No. 2, two for No. 3 and one for a No. 4. Those points are then summed for each team that received a vote. Here are this week's complete results:

Editor's note: In an eight-team format, this week's vote would forge the following quarterfinal matchups: Alabama-Baylor, Oregon-Florida State, Clemson-Georgia (Rematch!), and Ohio State-Stanford. Not bad, not bad at all.

Ryan Dunleavy, New Jersey Press Media: "I think this is a prime example of where a four-team playoff could get tricky, at least in season. I'd like to have Georgia and Stanford as 4b and 4c but obviously it doesn't work that way. No matter where you cut it off, you're going to have complainers (why not seven?) but for me there is a top six right now and then there is a cutoff – with apologies to Oklahoma, Louisville and Florida State."

Hugh Kellenberger, Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger: "Ohio State, Stanford and Florida State all have undefeated records and fairly similar résumés to this point, but Stanford has wins against both Washington and Arizona State. That's probably the best two wins of the group, giving the Cardinal the edge for the fourth and final playoff spot."

Laken Litman, USA TODAY Sports: "I figure if I'm putting Oregon at No. 1, I should have Baylor in there, too. Can you imagine the score if those teams played? I considered Florida State for the No. 4 spot, then remembered their performance against Boston College."

Joe Rexrode, Detroit Free Press: "Florida State is knocking on the door for me, along with Georgia, and Oregon can finally prove something this week against a quality opponent on the road. If the Ducks take care of Washington, someone is probably going to be bumped to make room for them."

George Schroeder, USA TODAY Sports: "October 19 is looking like an elimination game, but for now Florida State and Clemson are both deserving of a slot in my top four. It's tempting to dismiss what the Seminoles did to Maryland as being mostly about the Terps being vastly overrated. They were. But FSU is really, really good. Jameis Winston is fantastic, but he's got a team around him."

Boise State (3-2, 1-1) at Utah State (3-3, 2-0), 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports: The Aggies can take pole position in the Mountain West Mountain Division with a win and might doom Boise's hopes of taking the division crown.
USA TODAY Sports

No. 16 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) at Penn State (3-2, 0-1), 5 p.m. ET, ESPN: Devin Gardner and the Wolverines got their mojo back last week in the Big Ten opener, and travel to State College to take on the Nittany Lions, coming off an embarassing first-ever loss to Indiana.
USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 Texas A&M (4-1, 1-1) at Ole Miss (3-2, 1-2), 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Rebels have lost two in a row and host the Aggies in the third leg of a four-game gauntlet that started with Alabama and ends with LSU.
USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0) vs. Texas (3-2, 2-0) in Dallas, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Could this be Mack Brown's final Red River Rivalry game? The Longhorns have won their first two Big 12 games and have the chance to get back into the conference title conversation with a win against an Oklahoma team with BCS aspirations.
USA TODAY Sports

Missouri (5-0, 1-0) at No. 7 Georgia (4-1, 3-0), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Other than Alabama, Missouri is the only undefeated team in the SEC. Georgia's injuries are piling up and after two grueling games, face a stern test at home.
USA TODAY Sports

No. 18 Northwestern (4-1, 0-1) at Wisconsin (3-2, 1-1), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2: Coming off a close loss to Ohio State, the Wildcats look to pick up their first Big Ten win against a Wisconsin team that had a bye week following their loss to the Buckeyes.
USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) at No. 19 Washington (4-1, 1-1), 4 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1: The Huskies fought Stanford to the final whistle last time out, and now face the seemingly-impossible task of slowing down the Ducks' offense that has scored more than 50 points in every game this season.
USA TODAY Sports