GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast

The European Central Bank's (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective.

13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%

13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is bouncing like a yoyo today, it has been up and down endlessly currently trading at 1.5706 opening this morning at 1.5696 with low of 1.5672 and hitting a high of 1.5736. The greenback was strong today on the weakness of the euro because of Greece. The pair though reacted to economic news throughout the day.

Earlier in the day it was comments from the Bank of England, The BoE, in its latest quarterly inflation report, said Britain's annual consumer price inflation rate is likely to fall sharply in coming months and is likely to be below the central bank's 2% target for much of its two-year forecast period. The report warned that economic growth is likely to remain sluggish in the near term due to weak growth in the country's export markets and slowing activity in the euro zone.

The Bank of England appears to be backing up the markets' assumption that we won't see policy tightening for at least another two years, said James Knightley, economist at ING Bank. British annual inflation fell back to 3.6% in January from 4.2% in December. The Bank of England, in its quarterly inflation report, said it expects inflation to continue falling sharply in coming months and projected it to fall below its 2% target for much of the two-year forecasting period.

Followed by economic data from the US, where industrial production was flat in January, but the increase in December was much larger than first reported, according to the Federal Reserve.

Last month, industrial production was unchanged, as a 0.7% increase among manufacturers was offset by sharp declines in mining and utilities, data from the U.S. central bank showed Wednesday.

Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fifth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years, according to a survey released Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September.

News that only a few of the Federal Open Market Committee favored another round of quantitative easing, or QE3, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. Others on the Fed's interest rate setting body indicated that QE3 could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below the 2% target for a long time, the minutes show.

It is difficult to forecast this pair, a lot is riding on economic data due on Thursday in the US. During earlier trading it is up in the air.

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