Dutch election: Thursday March 16

Paul Wilders, Geert’s older brother, revealed he thinks tensions could escalate dramatically across the country as Mark Rutte declares victory.

The 62-year-old said his brother’s campaign, which proposed to shut down mosques and ban Muslim immigrants from the Netherlands, could cause chaos.

2.20pm GMT update: Finland’s foreign minister has weighed in on the election result.

Eurosceptic Timo Soini says the smaller-than-expected gains for Mr Wilders shows a party must have a broad agenda to success.

He said: "It shows how far a party with a narrow agenda can reach in an election... One should define a stance for fiscal policy, education policy, foreign policy and so forth. One must be a general party to succeed in election.”

1.46pm GMT update: Jeroen Dijsselbloem may have to stand down as president of the Eurogroup which coordinates policy in the eurozone if he cannot retain his role as Dutch finance minister in a new coalition after his party losing seats in yesterday’s election.

The Labour Party crashed from second to seventh place in preliminary results, losing more than three quarters of its seats and making it hard for victorious liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte to retain Mr Dijsselbloem in such a senior cabinet post.

1.21pm GMT update: As the row between Turkey and the Netherlands escalates, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan says Mark Rutte has lost the friendship of Ankara.

12.27pm GMT update: Theresa May has congratulated Mark Rutte, who claimed his victory over right-winger Geert Wilders was a defeat for the "wrong sort of populism" such as the Brexit vote.

Theresa May spoke by telephone with Mr Rutte, who is now poised for a third term as prime minister after his success in Thursday's contest.

Asked if Brexit was raised during the phone call, Downing Street said: "It was a conversation to congratulate him on the election."

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There was a phone call around about 10.30 this morning.

"It was a decision for the Dutch people, but we have long been friends and allies and worked well with him and we look forward to that continuing."

12.00pm GMT update: Leader of D66 party Alexander Pechtold tells the BBC, the election has stopped populism but not defeated it.

Rutte’s VVD party expected to be the largest party with 33 seats – down from 41 in 2012.

Despite jumping from the third to the second biggest party, and winning an estimated 20 seats compared to 15 in 2012, Wilders’ PVV unlikely to be part of coalition talks as incumbent prime minister claims it's “impossible”.

CDA and D66 party joint predicted to finish joint third with estimated 19 seats each.

The Netherland’s Labour party (PvdA) has collapsed from 38 to an estimated nine seats.

Greens (GL) are the big winners – jumping from four to 14 seats.

The DENK party, founded by two Turkish-Dutch MPs who supported Erdogan over Rutte in the recent spat, predicted to win three seats in parliament.

06.25am GMT update: About 95 per cent of the vote has been counted now. Official results won’t be due to March 21 however.

06.15am GMT update: Geert Wilders is defiant in defeat. The right-wing firebrand has pledged to win the next election.

He tweeted: "We were the 3rd largest party of the Netherlands. Now we are the 2nd largest party. Next time we will be number 1!"

Wilders also claims his party have defied the exit polls and won 20 seats, as opposed to the expected 19.

03.39am GMT update: Municipal Gooise Lakes – a province in North Holland with a population of 57,000 – has voted overwhelming for the VDD. Rutte’s party win with 33.8 per cent. Next closest was the D66 on 18 per cent.

03.33am GMT update: Dutch news site rtlnieuws.nl is now predicting the VVD will win 33 seats, with PVV on 20.

That would make Wilders’ party the clear second party, ahead of the CDA and D66, both on 19.

03.27am GMT update: Utrecht result in – a win for D66.

01.55am GMT update: Ouch. The Dutch Labour party PvdA drops from 32.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent in Nijmegen.

GL takes the seat with 20.1 per cent, closely followed by D66 on 19.5 per cent.

EPA

Geert Wilders reflects on his election loss

TWITTER/ EUROPE ELECTS

Seventy-five per cent counted. (Left) shows the state of play, compared to 2012 result (right

01.45am GMT update: Rutte will need at least three other parties for a coalition. 150 seats in Dutch parliament and VDD are only expected to scoop 31.

Wilders also tweets to announce he’s won his hometown of Venlo – just narrowly ahead of the VDD again.

11.30pm GMT update: With 10.9 per cent of the votes counted, Mark Rutte's VVD have scooped 17.8 per cent of the vote – towering over both the PVV and the other nearest rivals, according to Reuters.

Another unofficial poll by Dutch news agency ANP claims Rutte could even scoop 32 out of the 150 parliamentary seats. That would be one seat more than the exit polls predict.

Even if Rutte does snatch 32 seats, it's still way down on his 41 seats in the 2012 election.

10.50pm GMT update: Rotterdam has voted for Wilders.

The anti-Muslim politician tweeted: "Rotterdam for the PVV!"

10.34pm GMT update: The first three per cent of votes are in and it's showing the north of the country turning from Labour red to centre/centre-Right green.

10.40pm GMT update: It's been nearly three hours since polls closed and they are going at a rate of one per cent of the vote an hour. With 388 municipalities, we may only find out the final results at midnight on Sunday. Hopefully they pick up the pace.

10.30pm GMT update: Mr Rutte has told media the Dutch people today said "stop" to the wrong kind of populism, after Brexit and Trump.

10.25pm GMT update: EU President Jean-Claude Juncker has congratulated Mr Rutte on his "clear victory" over the phone.

He said: "It is a vote for Europe, a vote against extremists."

10.20pm GMT update: Thoughts are now turning to which parties will create a coalition government. It needs to be four parties with a total of 76 seats in the 150 seat parliament, but who?

A VVD/CDA/D66/PvdA coalition is being mooted as it would create 78 seats - and most importantly for those parties, would not include Mr Wilders' PVV.

However, Dutch professor Cas Mudde, associate professor at the University of Georgia in the US, said that would be "suicidal" for PvdA - the Labour Party - as they would "lose big" in a right-wing coalition without GroenLinks, the leftist Green Party.

TWITTER/ EUROPE ELECTS

Map of the 2017 count at 20 per cent (left), map of the total vote from 2012

Getty

The exit polls showed VVD winning, with the PVV, CDA and D66 coming equal second

9.55pm GMT update: The Germans are extremely happy with the exit polls from their neighbour - and the sixth largest EU economy.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, tweeted: "The Netherlands, oh the Netherlands you are a champion!

"Congratulations on this great result."

9.50pm GMT update: So many voters went to the polls across the Netherlands that in the city of Nijmegan, polling stations had to order extra ballot papers and extend opening times to give people enough time to vote.

9.45pm GMT update: Klass Dijkhoff, a senior official in Mr Rutte's party and secretary of state for migration, said: "All parties gained, except for us, but we are still happy.

"We had difficult years and we are very happy to remain the biggest party."

9.35pm GMT update: Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, has given the VVD and the D66 party a pat on the back.

He tweeted: "Congratulations to Mark Rutte and Alexander Pechtold!

"They ran great campaigns in which optimism prevailed."

9.30pm GMT update: The Italian Prime Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, has tweeted there will be no "Nexit".

German politician Martin Schulz, who has just stepped down as President of the European Parliament, tweeted: "Wilders can't win the Netherlands election.

"I'm relieved, but we must continue the fight for an open and free Europe."

8.50pm GMT update: The first two municipalities - out of 388 are out. They have both voted for Mr Rutte's VVD party.

8.40pm GMT update: Mr Wilders has tweeted: "PVV voters thanks!

"We have won seats!

"First victory is in!

"And Rutte has not seen the last of me yet!!"

The very high turnout is what experts are saying damaged Mr Wilders' chances and increased Mr Rutte's.

8.35pm GMT update: An updated turnout projection is 82 per cent, the highest turnout in 31 years.

8.30pm GMT update: Mr Wilders has gained 12.6 per cent of the vote. He has done better than 2012 when he gained 10.1 per cent, but in 2010 - when Mr Rutte became PM - PVV gained 15.4 per cent of the vote.

8.25pm GMT update: The leftist Animal Liberation Party (PvdD) has also gained the most votes - three per cent - since its first election in 2003

8.20pm GMT update: Green party,GroenLinks, has just gained its best result in its history, with 11 per cent.

8.15pm GMT update: Looking back at the 2012 election, Mr Rutte gained 41 seats - 10 more than the exit polls have given him this time.

5.55pm GMT update: Ben Kleber, from business information company Dun and Bradstreet, said anti-EU sentiment in the wake of the Brexit vote has "given hope" to veteran Eurosceptic Mr Wilders.

Mr Kleber said: “A Wilders win might have implications for the future of the EU: it could create the opportunity for other European nations to take advantage of the short-term uncertainty and could herald a break-up of the EU in the longer term.

“The economic implications of a Wilders success in the Netherlands might have a destabilising effect on the euro, as the head of the PVV has threatened to take the Netherlands out of the Eurozone – however, even if Wilders does win the election it is very unlikely that he will gain enough seats in Parliament to form his own government.

“Moreover, other political parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the PVV.”

5.40pm GMT update: Cas Mudde, associate Professor from the University of Georgia, tweeted: “Higher turnout, particularly in big cities, should hurt rather than help PVV.”

Vincenzo Scarpetta, a senior policy analyst at Open Europe, posted on Twitter: “Hard to infer what higher turnout means for Wilders.

“PVV ran in three general elections so far, and turnout in 2012 was similar to 2010.”

Noon GMT update: Europe Elects tweeted that turnout was 15 per cent at 10.30am, up from 13 per cent at the same stage in the 2012 election. It added: “Ballot paper shows 28 parties - record number. 15 might join parliament.”

11am GMT update: Many PVV voters are backing Mr Wilders in order to rock the political establishment and voice their anger over sky-high immigration.

"I am voting for Wilders. I hope he can make a change to make the Netherlands better," said Wendy de Graaf, who was dropping off her kids at school in The Hague.

"I don't agree with everything he says...but I feel that immigration is a problem."

10.30am GMT update: Mr Wilders remains defiant even though his party has slipped in the polls, with two shock polls putting him in third and fourth place yesterday.

Ahead of voting this morning, Mr Wilders said: “I feel very optimistic. We want to take out country back.” LATEST POLLS

Then after voting, he said: "Whatever the outcome of the election today the genie will not go back into the bottle and this patriotic revolution, whether today or tomorrow, will take place.”

10am GMT update: All eyes are on how well Mr Wilders does today in his election battle against the incumbent Prime Minister, the Centre for European Reform (CER) said today.

The CER said that the polls indicate that support for the PVV has been “slipping” but added: “Who believes opinion polls these days?”

The think tank added: “The vote comes amidst a diplomatic crisis with Turkey. The final days of the campaign have been dominated by the question of what relationship the Dutch should have with the Muslim-majority country.”

CER senior research fellow Rem Korteweg said: "Even if Wilders' party becomes the largest, he will not likely be able to form a majority government. But his influence on Dutch politics will continue to be significant."

9.30am GMT update: Mr Wilders today denied claims that he had built his inflammatory election campaign on "bigotry and hate".

"Those are all lies. We have, I believe, the biggest support by the common Dutch people," he told Sky News this morning.

"The common Dutch people who are interested in getting their country back and returning our national sovereignty are hopefully voting today in huge amounts."

9.20am GMT update: Mr Rutte waved to the press and smiled broadly after casting his vote in the Dutch election this morning.

The Prime Minister has received a boost in the polls in recent days after taking a tough stance against Turkey.

6.10am GMT update - The latest polls have placed Mr Wilders in third position, enabling Mr Rutte's Liberals to narrowly lead the race with under 30 minutes to go before polling stations are due to open at 6.30am GMT (7.30 am local time).

The Prime Minister said a victory for Wilders’ party, the PVV, would “send a signal to the rest of the world” and urged voters to stop “the wrong populism”.

Mr Rutte said: "There is a real risk that on March 16 we can wake up in this country and Geert Wilders is leading the biggest party and that will send a signal to the rest of the world.”

2pm GMT update: The latest Peil.nl poll found that the VVD has taken the lead in the polls and is expected to win 24 seats, two more than the PVV.

GETTY

Geert Wilders arrives to cast his vote in the Dutch General Election

1pm GMT update: Mr Wilders has called the Netherlands’ ethnic Turks to be stripped of their dual citizenship or go back to Turkey unless they reject Mr Erdogan’s remarks.

He said: “Are they loyal to Holland? Then they should reject the remarks of President Erdogan and they are as equal as anybody else.

“But if today proves in the coming days that they support the crazy and harsh remarks of Mr Erdogan then I invite them all to leave Holland, to go to Turkey and never come back because then their loyalty is not to Holland, but to the Turkish Republic.”

Noon GMT update: A snap poll by Maurice de Hond, released on Sunday evening, showed 86 percent of Dutch voters approved of Mr Rutte's handling of the Turkish issue.

"In times when the nation is hit by something like this, there's the inclination for people to get behind the government," said Hans Gosling, political commentator at Dutch newspaper Trouw.

Election day began just hours after a final debate that left Prime Minister Mark Rutte in pole position and the momentum with Jesse Klaver’s Green Left party.

6.10am GMT update - The latest polls have placed Mr Wilders in third position, enabling Mr Rutte's Liberals to narrowly lead the race with under 30 minutes to go before polling stations are due to open at 6.30am GMT (7.30 am local time).

The Prime Minister said a victory for Wilders’ party, the PVV, would “send a signal to the rest of the world” and urged voters to stop “the wrong populism”.

Mr Rutte said: "There is a real risk that on March 16 we can wake up in this country and Geert Wilders is leading the biggest party and that will send a signal to the rest of the world.”

2pm GMT update: The latest Peil.nl poll found that the VVD has taken the lead in the polls and is expected to win 24 seats, two more than the PVV.

1pm GMT update: Mr Wilders has called the Netherlands’ ethnic Turks to be stripped of their dual citizenship or go back to Turkey unless they reject Mr Erdogan’s remarks.

He said: “Are they loyal to Holland? Then they should reject the remarks of President Erdogan and they are as equal as anybody else.

“But if today proves in the coming days that they support the crazy and harsh remarks of Mr Erdogan then I invite them all to leave Holland, to go to Turkey and never come back because then their loyalty is not to Holland, but to the Turkish Republic.”

Noon GMT update: A snap poll by Maurice de Hond, released on Sunday evening, showed 86 percent of Dutch voters approved of Mr Rutte's handling of the Turkish issue.

"In times when the nation is hit by something like this, there's the inclination for people to get behind the government," said Hans Gosling, political commentator at Dutch newspaper Trouw.