Comments on 'Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From'TypePad2012-12-03T18:13:18ZMark Thomahttp://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/tag:typepad.com,2003:http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2012/12/where-most-cuts-should-be-coming-from/comments/atom.xml/anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c34752414970b2012-12-10T00:06:32Z2012-12-10T00:06:32ZanneIt is unlikely that the West will just cede military dominance to China.... [What nonsense. China and America are nuclear...<p>It is unlikely that the West will just cede military dominance to China....</p>
<p>[What nonsense. China and America are nuclear powers and the idea of dominance among nuclear powers is simply nonsense, simply madness but evidently a madness that afflicts us.</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3ea3e6d2970c2012-12-09T23:49:38Z2012-12-09T23:49:38Zanonhttp://techlinkcenter.org/sites/default/files/Swearingen%20and%20Slaper,%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20DoD%20Tech%20Transfer,%20June%202012.pdf1. What ridiculous assumption? China has been growing their military at 10% per year regularly, and the time frame is...<p>1. What ridiculous assumption? China has been growing their military at 10% per year regularly, and the time frame is the same as the debt projections. Sure, they are gowing to pass us. They will spend more in absolute terms and less relative to GDP because their economy will be bigger. That means there will be limits to how much we can safely cut the miliary and that our allies will have to spend more. It is unlikely that the West will just cede military dominance to China.</p>
<p>5. Go read Krugman. The current deficit is primarily about the economic downturn and the Bush-era tax cuts. The future deficit is all about health care.</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e784d57970c2012-12-05T04:34:20Z2012-12-05T04:34:20ZMark A. SadowskiAccording to the IMF GDP per capita was $48,300 in the US last year and $5400 in China at exchange...<p>According to the IMF GDP per capita was $48,300 in the US last year and $5400 in China at exchange rate valuation. If the dollar collapsed to 10% of its value last year China&#39;s GDP per capita would have been more than the US GDP per capita: </p>
<p><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2011&ey=2011&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=924%2C111&s=NGDPDPC%2CPPPPC&grp=0&a=&pr.x=39&pr.y=4" rel="nofollow">http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2011&amp;ey=2011&amp;scsm=1&amp;ssd=1&amp;sort=country&amp;ds=.&amp;br=1&amp;c=924%2C111&amp;s=NGDPDPC%2CPPPPC&amp;grp=0&amp;a=&amp;pr.x=39&amp;pr.y=4</a></p>
<p>In purchasing power parity terms the yuan was 35% undervalued. </p>
<p>There are PPP adjusted values for China&#39;s defense expenditures:<br />
<a href="http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/milex_15/the-15-countries-with-the-highest-military-expenditure-in-2011-table/at_download/file" rel="nofollow">http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/milex_15/the-15-countries-with-the-highest-military-expenditure-in-2011-table/at_download/file</a></p>
<p>According to those estimates the US still outspent China over three to one last year.</p>John Miller commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e7829c4970c2012-12-05T04:14:49Z2012-12-05T04:14:49ZJohn MillerFolks, this is only true if you think the real value of the US dollar should be 6.1 renminbi (Chinese...<p>Folks, this is only true if you think the real value of the US dollar should be 6.1 renminbi (Chinese yuan).</p>
<p>What value would the dollar take if the Chinese stopped buying up a billion dollars of debt a day? This is fully 3/4 of the demand for US dollars from yuan holders (US exports are tiny, about 1/4 of Chinese exports). </p>
<p>I say the dollar would collapse, probably fall to 10% of its present value. In such a world Chinese military spending would be instantly two or three times higher than the US.<br />
</p>Devin commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5ea8935970d2012-12-04T21:51:00Z2012-12-04T21:51:00ZDevinhttp://freemarketsgoodbeer.blogspot.com1. And by the magic of compounding interest, even if we devote 100% of current GDP to the military, then...<p>1. And by the magic of compounding interest, even if we devote 100% of current GDP to the military, then using your assumptions China will still catch us in what, 25 years? So maybe 100% of current GDP still isn&#39;t enough to spend on the military. I hardly see how in a discussion of what we should be spending NOW on the military, that we need to consider what will happen years down the road under completely absurd assumptions.</p>
<p>4. Yep, let&#39;s of bad things. And still far, far less than in the past. Good luck finding any source of empirical data that says otherwise.</p>
<p>5. Exactly. And since the current deficit has more to do with military spending than health care spending, then let&#39;s focus on the military spending. It&#39;s only when you project into the future that health care gets significantly worse than military.</p>JeffF commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c34459c02970b2012-12-04T18:10:17Z2012-12-04T18:10:17ZJeffF"It is my understanding that deductions are important for lowering the taxes of higher income people..." I mean that the...<p>&quot;It is my understanding that deductions are important for lowering the taxes of higher income people...&quot;</p>
<p>I mean that the parts of the deductions which might be capped under republican proposals (might because they are never specifically defined).</p>JeffF commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e94aa0970d2012-12-04T18:07:32Z2012-12-04T18:07:32ZJeffFIt is my understanding that deductions are important for lowering the taxes of higher income people, 10th-1st percentile or so,...<p>It is my understanding that deductions are important for lowering the taxes of higher income people, 10th-1st percentile or so, but beyond that deductions aren&#39;t so important and the lower tax rates on investment income and various tax dodges become the important factor.</p>
<p>So limiting deductions would make the tax code more progressive across the bottom 99% or so, but less progressive with regard to the top 1%.</p>
<p>This goes along with the overall structure of total US taxes which are currently somewhat progressive across the bottom 99%, but become extremely regressive somewhere within the top 1% (see the total tax rates of Romney, Buffet, etc).</p>Mike commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e4772b970d2012-12-04T05:22:10Z2012-12-04T05:22:10ZMikeIf you are concerned about nightmares, then look no further than the current income tax.<p>If you are concerned about nightmares, then look no further than the current income tax. </p>EMichael commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6fa54e970c2012-12-04T05:12:40Z2012-12-04T05:12:40ZEMichaelI have never seen a progressive consumption tax plan that could be implemented without a total nightmare scenario occurring.<p>I have never seen a progressive consumption tax plan that could be implemented without a total nightmare scenario occurring.</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6fa302970c2012-12-04T05:11:24Z2012-12-04T05:11:24Zanonhttp://techlinkcenter.org/sites/default/files/Swearingen%20and%20Slaper,%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20DoD%20Tech%20Transfer,%20June%202012.pdfSee the post above. Actually defense jobs tend to be skilled and high paying.<p>See the post above. Actually defense jobs tend to be skilled and high paying. </p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e45ecd970d2012-12-04T05:08:00Z2012-12-04T05:08:00Zanonhttp://techlinkcenter.org/sites/default/files/Swearingen%20and%20Slaper,%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20DoD%20Tech%20Transfer,%20June%202012.pdfWhose making that argument? The fact is that we ARE spending a lot on defense, and our economy has, therfore,...<p>Whose making that argument? The fact is that we ARE spending a lot on defense, and our economy has, therfore, allocated resources to supply that demand. Thus, what is cut and over what time frame is a critical issue. </p>
<p>Not all defense cuts are the same. I think we can all agree that spending money on planes that can&#39;t fly in the rain is a waste of money. However, health care for military families and their dependents isn&#39;t. Likewise, shutting down a military base that is an area&#39;s largest employer when unemployment is 8% and real estate values are still in a valley will have real consequences for everybody in that area whether they are employed in a defense job or not. A clean energy job 10 years from now probably won&#39;t be much of a comfort to a restaurant owner who just watched his customer base pack up and leave.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the below study estimates that $1 billion in direct sales by the DoD generates up to 17,900 jobs in the economy that average over $70k in salary. It is not obvious to me that the study that you cite properly accounts for multiplier/induced effects. The military jobs are much higher paying, but many active-duty military are,of course, overseas, which is more of an argument for reducing the mission than the efficiency of defense spending. Thus, the average induced effects are skewed much lower. However, defense spending on research is done almost exclusively in the US for US products. That would be a fairer comparison with clean energy in pure economic terms. Furthermore, according to the Pew Research Center DoD is currently investing $1.2 billion in clean energy. We don&#39;t want to cut that, do we? </p>
<p><a href="http://techlinkcenter.org/sites/default/files/Swearingen%20and%20Slaper,%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20DoD%20Tech%20Transfer,%20June%202012.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://techlinkcenter.org/sites/default/files/Swearingen%20and%20Slaper,%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20DoD%20Tech%20Transfer,%20June%202012.pdf</a></p>Mike commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c3440a840970b2012-12-04T05:02:58Z2012-12-04T05:02:58ZMikeI am no tax expert and have not fleshed out my thoughts on a proper tax code, but as for...<p>I am no tax expert and have not fleshed out my thoughts on a proper tax code, but as for now I would favor eliminating the income tax all together in favor of a progressive consumption tax and a capital gains tax on high income persons. <br />
</p>EMichael commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c344097c8970b2012-12-04T04:55:08Z2012-12-04T04:55:08ZEMichaelInteresting. Though there are some middle class people living in certain areas that would take a hit with the mortgage...<p>Interesting. </p>
<p>Though there are some middle class people living in certain areas that would take a hit with the mortgage deduction, you are correct in that most of it goes to high income people(considering the standard deduction as an alternative).</p>
<p>My thought is that the best tax system would be incredibly simple(though admittedly impossible in our culture).</p>
<p>One tax rate. One deduction for the amount of people in the household. All income the same.</p>
<p>Five line tax returns except for businesses, and the entire IRS would focus on the returns of business owners(where the vast majority of $300 billion a year in tax fraud occurs). It would be progressive by virtue of the high standard deduction.</p>
<p>Never happen cause of the religion deduction and the vast majority of the tax code written for people in the top 1%. IN other words, the rich would not accept a lower tax rate in exchange of their deductions(which puts the lie in the current GOP tax reform bs).</p>
<p>But the best thing that could ever happen to the country. </p>Mike commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e41272970d2012-12-04T04:31:04Z2012-12-04T04:31:04ZMikeI am fan of cutting military spending and adopting a more humble foreign policy, and have been for years. In...<p>I am fan of cutting military spending and adopting a more humble foreign policy, and have been for years. In fact, it was one of the main reasons why I stopped voting Dem and started to support libertarians on foreign policy issues. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, military spending is not the problem. While it is a prime candidate for spending cuts and the US should learn a little humility instead of policing the world, it is not the main problem of our deficits. In fact, it is taking up a smaller and smaller share of GDP over the decades. </p>
<p>Health care spending is. Health care spending is taking up a larger and larger share of GDP. While I have nothing against cutting the DOD (perhaps a more apt name -- The of Offense), military spending is not the culprit. </p>
<p>As a side note, Reich is wrong on the deduction. I don&#39;t know why he keeps harping on this. </p>
<p>Eliminating deductions would increase progressiveness in the tax code. Certainly some middle class folks would be hit, but the majority would be affluent people. Plus, America does not have a progressive tax issue, it has a progressive spending issue. <br />
<a href="http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/02/12/minor-blog-wars-my-part-in-their-genesis/" rel="nofollow">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/02/12/minor-blog-wars-my-part-in-their-genesis/</a></p>Min commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6e5c62970c2012-12-04T02:32:10Z2012-12-04T02:32:10ZMinI say start with the extremities -- of Congressmen. ;) I ask you, who needs a little toe?<p>I say start with the extremities -- of Congressmen. ;) </p>
<p>I ask you, who needs a little toe?</p>EMichael commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e2d0d9970d2012-12-04T01:50:13Z2012-12-04T01:50:13ZEMichaelWhile I certainly do not disagree with your thoughts, I have a hard time comprehending the difference between a worker...<p>While I certainly do not disagree with your thoughts, I have a hard time comprehending the difference between a worker making a bullet and making $15 an hour and a worker making a street light and making $15 an hour.</p>
<p>Nor do I think there are many jobs where the differences in job tasks need some sort of exotic new training.</p>
<p>The vast majority of people working in defense industries are not rocket scientists. </p>Apinak commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343f1c88970b2012-12-04T01:46:23Z2012-12-04T01:46:23ZApinakWhy is military spending the only acceptable social program, when it is empirically the worst for the economy?<p>Why is military spending the only acceptable social program, when it is empirically the worst for the economy?</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343f171d970b2012-12-04T01:45:02Z2012-12-04T01:45:02ZanonHow comfortable would Japan be with that number glancing over at China if the US were not the dominant military...<p>How comfortable would Japan be with that number glancing over at China if the US were not the dominant military power in the Pacific?</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6ddb17970c2012-12-04T01:23:53Z2012-12-04T01:23:53ZanonNo cost? I specified "severe and rapid cuts." Construction workers could not immediately switch to other industries when the real...<p>No cost? I specified &quot;severe and rapid cuts.&quot; Construction workers could not immediately switch to other industries when the real estate bubble burst. Likewise, defense workers will have the same problem. Nor will communities where the local military base is one of the largest employers be able to immediately replace those jobs shoulkd they disappear overnight. There will be negative consequences that can be mitigated by how the time horizon of cuts. </p>anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343ee277970b2012-12-04T01:15:50Z2012-12-04T01:15:50ZanneI agree with you completely.<p>I agree with you completely.</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343ee1f9970b2012-12-04T01:15:34Z2012-12-04T01:15:34Zanon1. That wasn't the point. By the magic of compounding interest that difference dissipates quickly if China continues to grow...<p>1. That wasn&#39;t the point. By the magic of compounding interest that difference dissipates quickly if China continues to grow their budget by 10% and we merely freeze ours, much less make dramatic cuts. </p>
<p>2. Do you really believe that Europe would not spend more on defense with Putin in charge of Russia if the US did not have a heavy military presence in Europe?</p>
<p>3. I support all those things, and I&#39;m a Democrat.</p>
<p>4. Aside from nukes in Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, the drug war in Mexico, and civil wars in Syria, Mali, the Sudan, and Libya, peace and goodwill reign, as usual on planet Earth.</p>
<p>5. The topic was fixing the budget deficit.</p>anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343ee18d970b2012-12-04T01:15:21Z2012-12-04T01:15:21ZanneThere is a ton of economic research that shows how how health care providers reap monopoly profits while having inefficient...<p>There is a ton of economic research that shows how how health care providers reap monopoly profits while having inefficient cost structures (old fashion X-inefficiency)....</p>
<p>[ Surely so, what I want to be sure is that President Obama has decided to go after just such monopoly profits. By the way, since early in the 1980s the sector of the S&amp;P stock market index that has given easily the highest returns is health care and especially so drug and medical equipment companies. ]</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343eb4a5970b2012-12-04T00:51:13Z2012-12-04T00:51:13ZanonIf you want to switch the research funding to the NSF, fine, but that doesn't comprise a budget cut, does...<p>If you want to switch the research funding to the NSF, fine, but that doesn&#39;t comprise a budget cut, does it?</p>
<p>A lot of the research funding in universities really is dual use. Look in any photonics journal. A large percentage of the American papers are funded on military contracts. That includes applications like optical coherence tomography, which has primarily medical applications.</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6d9743970c2012-12-04T00:45:43Z2012-12-04T00:45:43ZanonI simply quoted the SIPRI numbers that are linked below by Mark.<p>I simply quoted the SIPRI numbers that are linked below by Mark.</p>Tracy commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e24d47970d2012-12-04T00:39:13Z2012-12-04T00:39:13ZTracyI don't know what the political justification is but there is no rational military one. We are at peace with...<p>I don&#39;t know what the political justification is but there is no rational military one. We are at peace with both countries that have borders with us and we are separate from most of the rest of the world by two large oceans. Where is the threat that justifies this level of spending ?</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343e9005970b2012-12-04T00:29:58Z2012-12-04T00:29:58ZMark A. SadowskiThe 15 countries with highest military expenditures in 2011: http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/milex_15/the-15-countries-with-the-highest-military-expenditure-in-2011-table/at_download/file World shares of defense spending in 1986, 1994, 2011, 2006:...<p>The 15 countries with highest military expenditures in 2011:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/milex_15/the-15-countries-with-the-highest-military-expenditure-in-2011-table/at_download/file" rel="nofollow">http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/milex_15/the-15-countries-with-the-highest-military-expenditure-in-2011-table/at_download/file</a></p>
<p>World shares of defense spending in 1986, 1994, 2011, 2006:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.comw.org/pda/1002BudgetSurge_files/image021.gif" rel="nofollow">http://www.comw.org/pda/1002BudgetSurge_files/image021.gif</a></p>
<p>World shares of defense spending in 1986 and 2008:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/percentageglobalmilitary.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/percentageglobalmilitary.pdf</a></p>
<p>Line graph of US share of military spending from 1988 through 2009 (bottom first page):</p>
<p><a href="http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Trends_in_US_Military_Spending_2012.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Trends_in_US_Military_Spending_2012.pdf</a></p>
<p>World military spending from 1908-1913:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.oldmagazinearticles.com/Pre-World_War_One_Military_Spending_pre_ww1" rel="nofollow">http://www.oldmagazinearticles.com/Pre-World_War_One_Military_Spending_pre_ww1</a></p>Devin commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e1fa44970d2012-12-03T23:51:45Z2012-12-03T23:51:45ZDevinhttp://freemarketsgoodbeer.blogspot.comI can only assume it's because Republicans think all of our military members are dumber than dirt when compared to...<p>I can only assume it&#39;s because Republicans think all of our military members are dumber than dirt when compared to the soldiers of all other nations. What other explanation could there be for demanding they receive resources that are so disproportionately large relative to all other armies in the world?</p>EMichael commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343df52c970b2012-12-03T22:55:18Z2012-12-03T22:55:18ZEMichaelAhh, but if we take into account the lower cost of labor in China versus the US, what is the...<p>Ahh, but if we take into account the lower cost of labor in China versus the US, what is the real difference in military expenditures?</p>
<p>I can guarantee you the average Chinese infantryman does not make anywhere near the average US infantryman.</p>
<p>And does this Chinese military spending include the cost of small arm sales to the most vicious people in the entire world? People who cause more deaths than anyone else in the world?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/controlling-chinese-arms-sales/" rel="nofollow">http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/controlling-chinese-arms-sales/</a></p>pgl commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6cd9ec970c2012-12-03T22:49:23Z2012-12-03T22:49:23ZpglThere is a ton of economic research that shows how how health care providers reap monopoly profits while having inefficient...<p>There is a ton of economic research that shows how how health care providers reap monopoly profits while having inefficient cost structures (old fashion X-inefficiency). Our health care bill is about twice that of other nations on a per capita basis. So yea - one could produce lots and lots of research confirming what PK is saying. And I bet a lot of this research has been featured on Mark&#39;s blog. I know at one time the Angrybear blog went on a tear with this theme.</p>pgl commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6cd478970c2012-12-03T22:46:06Z2012-12-03T22:46:06ZpglAnd OK - I goofed. It was anon with his 5 points not Anne. Anne was ably rebutting Anon on...<p>And OK - I goofed. It was anon with his 5 points not Anne. Anne was ably rebutting Anon on this one (I need more sleep).</p>pgl commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343de451970b2012-12-03T22:44:00Z2012-12-03T22:44:00ZpglAnne? I thought you were against more defense spending. Your #1 sounds like the neocon case for more defense. And...<p>Anne? I thought you were against more defense spending. Your #1 sounds like the neocon case for more defense. And your #3 is called military Keynesianism - the only form of Keyesian economics that the Republicans ever admit. Hey - it is not a bad case for more defense spending but I still think the money would be better spent on infrastructure and public education. </p>Tracy commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e1716a970d2012-12-03T22:26:57Z2012-12-03T22:26:57ZTracy"which now exceeds the military spending of the next 13 largest military spenders in the world combined" Pretty much the...<p>&quot;which now exceeds the military spending of the next 13 largest military spenders in the world combined&quot;</p>
<p>Pretty much the definition of military policy insanity. Isn&#39;t it astounding how other countries manage to get by with smaller military spending, but somehow we can&#39;t ? </p>Apinak commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e15230970d2012-12-03T22:09:22Z2012-12-03T22:09:22ZApinakMilitary spending creates ~11,200 jobs per $1 billion spent, clean energy jobs create ~16,800 jobs per billion Education spending creates...<p>Military spending creates ~11,200 jobs per $1 billion spent, clean energy jobs create ~16,800 jobs per billion Education spending creates 26,700 per billion. Shifting $500 billion from military to clean energy, health care, or educations (over 10 years) would create 2.8-7.7 million new jobs at no cost. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/published_study/PERI_military_spending_2011.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/published_study/PERI_military_spending_2011.pdf</a></p>anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343d4afc970b2012-12-03T21:15:02Z2012-12-03T21:15:02ZanneChina is #2 in military spending at $143 billion to our $711 billion. [ Evidently the correct figure for China...<p>China is #2 in military spending at $143 billion to our $711 billion.</p>
<p>[ Evidently the correct figure for China is $106 billion, while the correct American figure is currently $834.5 billion. ]</p>
<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-military-spending-to-top-100-billion-this-year/2012/03/04/gIQAJRnypR_story.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-military-spending-to-top-100-billion-this-year/2012/03/04/gIQAJRnypR_story.html</a></p>
<p>March 4, 2012</p>
<p>China military spending to top $100 billion in 2012, alarming neighbors<br />
By Keith B. Richburg - Washington Post</p>
<p>BEIJING — China’s Communist Party rulers plan to boost military spending by 11 percent this year, passing the $100 billion mark for the first time and renewing questions about the country’s long-term intentions.</p>
<p>The new spending plan comes as China’s neighbors are increasingly unnerved by the country’s growing assertiveness in pressing territorial claims and as the Obama administration has announced a strategic “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region.</p>
<p>The new defense spending plans, outlined at the start of the annual session of China’s largely rubber-stamp legislature, would bring the official military budget to 670 billion yuan. That would be the equivalent of $106 billion and would amount to an increase of more than $10 billion over 2011....</p>anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6c2963970c2012-12-03T21:07:34Z2012-12-03T21:07:34Zannehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/us/politics/boehner-counters-obamas-proposal-on-deficit-cuts.html December 3, 2012 Boehner Counters Obama’s Proposal on Deficit Reduction By JONATHAN WEISMAN The president wants between $400 billion...<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/us/politics/boehner-counters-obamas-proposal-on-deficit-cuts.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/us/politics/boehner-counters-obamas-proposal-on-deficit-cuts.html</a></p>
<p>December 3, 2012</p>
<p>Boehner Counters Obama’s Proposal on Deficit Reduction<br />
By JONATHAN WEISMAN</p>
<p>The president wants between $400 billion and $600 billion in spending cuts, largely from Medicare....</p>
<p>[ Paul Krugman is arguing that President Obama wants to cut Medicare spending by allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices and gauge payment for medical procedures according to the health effectiveness of the procedures.</p>
<p>I would like to confirm Krugman&#39;s argument but have not been able to. Does anyone have a reference to the intent of President Obama on Medicare spending cuts? ]</p>ilsm commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6c1e0f970c2012-12-03T21:01:30Z2012-12-03T21:01:30ZilsmYes, US needs to fix health delivery. However, US war spending needs to be reudced as part of GDP far...<p>Yes, US needs to fix health delivery.</p>
<p>However, US war spending needs to be reudced as part of GDP far more than the current sequestration.</p>
<p>US spent around 5.4% of GDP for the measure NATO uses to rank its members, Germany about 1.6%, Japan spends (not in NATO, in US pacific cover) about 1% of GDP!!</p>
<p>The top 10 spenders average less about 1.4% of GDP if you remove the US&#39;s tripling the part of GDP of the rest.</p>Devin commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343d3285970b2012-12-03T21:01:13Z2012-12-03T21:01:13ZDevinhttp://freemarketsgoodbeer.blogspot.com1. HAHAHAHAHA!! Your argument really boils down to $143 isn't really THAT much less than $711, which is silly. 2....<p>1. HAHAHAHAHA!! Your argument really boils down to $143 isn&#39;t really THAT much less than $711, which is silly.</p>
<p>2. The USSR collapsed over 20 years ago, maybe you missed the memo.</p>
<p>3. Democrats, however, support adequate safety nets, job training, university funding, and lots of spending on research...all of which are accomplished MUCH more efficiently without having to go through the Dept of Defense.</p>
<p>4. Empirical evidence provides a powerful headwind to your argument. The number of people killed either in military actions, para-military actions, or just plain old acts of violence, are all seeing dramatic, multi-decade declines. All the evidence points to the world getting safer, no matter how much conservatives wish it could be otherwise.</p>
<p>5. The health care cost scare is based on projections and assumptions...the out of control military budget is an enormous problem of wasted resources right NOW. Let&#39;s solve the simple problem first, then see how ACA pans out in terms of bending the cost curve. If that doesn&#39;t work, try something else. But by all means, fix the easy problem now.</p>anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6c0611970c2012-12-03T20:49:32Z2012-12-03T20:49:32ZanneGovernment spending creates jobs, something many Republicans don't like to admit. Severe and rapid cuts in defense spending will have...<p>Government spending creates jobs, something many Republicans don&#39;t like to admit. Severe and rapid cuts in defense spending will have devastating economic consequences in some communities, something Democrats don&#39;t care to admit. And the damage won&#39;t be limited to just fat-cat contractors. Some bases are a significant portion of many local economies. Also, a lot of science and engineering graduate students are supported by militarily-funded research.</p>
<p>[ This is a ruse, simply a ruse. Spend the money on infrastructure development in potentially effected areas and give research grants to science and engineering students for other than waging wars. Is there any work or research to be done in America other than on preparing to ruin other countries and kill other peoples? ]</p>anne commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6bfb2d970c2012-12-03T20:43:52Z2012-12-03T20:43:52Zanne"China is #2 in military spending at $143 billion to our $711 billion...." America's basic military spending is surely not...<p>&quot;China is #2 in military spending at $143 billion to our $711 billion....&quot;</p>
<p>America&#39;s basic military spending is surely not $711 billion and has not been $711 billion since April through June of 2008:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&910=X&911=0&903=5&904=1992&905=2011&906=A" rel="nofollow">http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=9&amp;step=3&amp;isuri=1&amp;910=X&amp;911=0&amp;903=5&amp;904=1992&amp;905=2011&amp;906=A</a></p>
<p>January 30, 2012</p>
<p>National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment, 2000-2012</p>
<p>(Billions of dollars)</p>
<p>2000 ( 371.0)<br />
2001 ( 393.0) Bush<br />
2002 ( 437.7)<br />
2003 ( 497.9)<br />
2004 ( 550.8)</p>
<p>2005 ( 589.1)<br />
2006 ( 624.9)<br />
2007 ( 662.3)<br />
2008 ( 737.8)<br />
2009 ( 776.0) Obama</p>
<p>2010 ( 817.7)<br />
2011 ( 820.8)</p>
<p>2012</p>
<p>Qtr1 ( 806.4)<br />
Qtr2 ( 807.8)<br />
Qtr3 ( 834.5)</p>
<p>* Quarterly at annual rates, seasonally adjusted</p>anon commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6be02d970c2012-12-03T20:28:58Z2012-12-03T20:28:58ZanonA few points: 1. China is #2 in military spending at $143 billion to our $711 billion. They are routinely...<p>A few points:</p>
<p>1. China is #2 in military spending at $143 billion to our $711 billion. They are routinely increasing their military spending by over 10% a year. If we just freeze our military spending, they will surpass us in military spending in about 15 years, and they have 3x the population.</p>
<p>2. Since Russia is #3 in military spending, a lot of the top 13 like Japan, Australia, England, France and Germany would have to spend a lot more on their defense if not for the US. Maybe the US should let our allies shoulder more of the burden.</p>
<p>3. Government spending creates jobs, something many Republicans don&#39;t like to admit. Severe and rapid cuts in defense spending will have devastating economic consequences in some communities, something Democrats don&#39;t care to admit. And the damage won&#39;t be limited to just fat-cat contractors. Some bases are a significant portion of many local economies. Also, a lot of science and engineering graduate students are supported by militarily-funded research.</p>
<p>4. Significant military cuts are really about reducing the mission. It&#39;s expensive to have a military presence on every continent and every ocean. The world is arguably not becoming a significantly safer place. </p>
<p>5. The scary debt projections are all about health care costs. In fact, health care is 10% of the defense budget now and 50% of personnel costs. No proposal that does not focus on health care costs will solve the long term debt problem unless health care cost projections are off base, in which case there isn&#39;t a problem. Any cuts elsewhere will eventually be overwhelmed by health care costs if they continue to rise at current rates.<br />
</p>ilsm commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e09636970d2012-12-03T20:22:14Z2012-12-03T20:22:14ZilsmMore references: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/cut-military-waste-not-charitable-deducations/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/the-sequesters-defense-cuts-arent-that-scary-in-one-graph/ http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2012_04/20120413_PR_CP_2012_047_rev1.pdf<p>More references:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/cut-military-waste-not-charitable-deducations/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/cut-military-waste-not-charitable-deducations/</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/the-sequesters-defense-cuts-arent-that-scary-in-one-graph/" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/the-sequesters-defense-cuts-arent-that-scary-in-one-graph/</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2012_04/20120413_PR_CP_2012_047_rev1.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2012_04/20120413_PR_CP_2012_047_rev1.pdf</a></p>ilsm commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343cd19c970b2012-12-03T20:08:11Z2012-12-03T20:08:11ZilsmUn warranted influence! The excesses and waste in the military industry congress complex have been challenged since Ike in 1953...<p>Un warranted influence!</p>
<p>The excesses and waste in the military industry congress complex have been challenged since Ike in 1953 and later in 1961, with a humorous interlude from Sen. William Proxmire&#39;s Golden Fleece awards in the 1970&#39;s.</p>
<p>Nothing about US military spending is related reality, it is based on fighting 2.5 major each service gets headines wars that look like WW II. The &#39;experts&#39; selling these expensive war plans are making their careers on their sales pitches. </p>
<p>US military industry complex annual spending is roughly equal to SS retirement and disability.</p>
<p>The NATO standard for war spending despite lack of real threats is 2% of GDP, the average for mainland Europe members is 1.6% of GDP (2010) the US spends 5.4% in 2010.</p>
<p>In UK at 2.6% of GDP it amoiunts to about 7% of Outlays while US is 20% of federal outlays.</p>
<p>In any sense US is spending 3 times GDP as any other &quot;developed&quot; nation.</p>
<p>Sequestration cuts are about 30% the necessary cuts.</p>
<p>Argue with a military industry complex employee and they trot out Munich and call you an isolationist.<br />
</p>Narwhal commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6bba78970c2012-12-03T20:07:14Z2012-12-03T20:07:18ZNarwhalhttp://profile.typepad.com/jwattengelI am sure that most readers realize that you didn't say that Brazil has a hostile government. I just want...<p>I am sure that most readers realize that you didn&#39;t say that Brazil has a hostile government. I just want to emphasize your point that a much smaller US military can easily deal with the real threats. That is, as long as we don&#39;t plan to start any new wars. </p>ilsm commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6ba73b970c2012-12-03T19:56:08Z2012-12-03T19:56:08ZilsmMc Cain, Gramm and Ayotte with some accomplices in the house think the bombers should have been on call for...<p>Mc Cain, Gramm and Ayotte with some accomplices in the house think the bombers should have been on call for Benghazi.</p>Dave commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e069cc970d2012-12-03T19:55:35Z2012-12-03T19:55:35ZDaveI didn't say that Brazil was a hostile government, just not an allied one. Of the allied nations I mentioned,...<p>I didn&#39;t say that Brazil was a hostile government, just not an allied one. Of the allied nations I mentioned, 6 are in NATO (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Turkey), Australia has been a US ally since WWII, Japan became a US protectorate after WWII for a while, and the US went to war for Saudi Arabia and South Korea.</p>Narwhal commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343ca9cd970b2012-12-03T19:43:56Z2012-12-03T19:44:02ZNarwhalhttp://profile.typepad.com/jwattengelBrazil may not be an 'ally' in the military alliance sense. I am US Expat living in Brazil and Brazilians...<p>Brazil may not be an &#39;ally&#39; in the military alliance sense. I am US Expat living in Brazil and Brazilians and their government have always been friendly; and much more so since we booted Dubya out. No military threat here. </p>pgl commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e021c3970d2012-12-03T19:14:17Z2012-12-03T19:14:17ZpglOh for a real fiscal commission - one that does not let Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson anyway near the...<p>Oh for a real fiscal commission - one that does not let Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson anyway near the meeting room!</p>pgl commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e01e2e970d2012-12-03T19:12:27Z2012-12-03T19:12:27ZpglOn Reich's #7 (they are all excellent BTW) which reads "CUT SPENDING ON MILITARY AND CORPORATE WELFARE. You want to...<p>On Reich&#39;s #7 (they are all excellent BTW) which reads &quot;CUT SPENDING ON MILITARY AND CORPORATE WELFARE. You want to cut, cut spending on the military — which now exceeds the military spending of the next 13 largest military spenders in the world combined. And cut corporate welfare — support to agribusiness, oil and gas, Big Pharma, big insurance, and Wall Street.&quot;</p>
<p>Bob Corker (R-TN) was asked about this list and his reponse was no, no, no, no, no, and no! The Republicans are not and never have been serious about fiscal restraint. </p>beezer commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6b5ac4970c2012-12-03T19:11:39Z2012-12-03T19:11:39Zbeezerhttp://www.beezernotes.com/wordpress/Once the Repubs relent on Obama's taxes, he should push to cut military spending pronto plus the $300 billion or...<p>Once the Repubs relent on Obama&#39;s taxes, he should push to cut military spending pronto plus the $300 billion or so in Medicare savings by allowing Medicare to wade into pricing on Medicare advantage. That gives us about $2.9 trillion in a combination of revenue and spending reductions. Then he should push for some type of national program to install a smart, direct current national grid to free up the investments just waiting to install advanced, sustainable, clean energy production. Then stand back and watch the private economy expand.</p>pgl commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6b5830970c2012-12-03T19:10:07Z2012-12-03T19:10:07Zpgl“We’ve put a serious offer on the table by putting revenues up there to try to get this question resolved,”...<p>“We’ve put a serious offer on the table by putting revenues up there to try to get this question resolved,” Mr. Boehner said on “Fox News Sunday.” “But the White House has responded with virtually nothing. They have actually asked for more revenue than they’ve been asking for the whole entire time.” - Michael Froomkin providing the quote for &quot;Shopper&quot; Boehner that I noted in an earlier thread. And Michael calls out the lie that it is. Thanks - I thoroughly enjoyed Michael&#39;s blog post. And he&#39;s right - let&#39;s put bloated defense budget on the table!</p>Edward Lambert commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5e015e8970d2012-12-03T19:07:29Z2012-12-03T19:07:29ZEdward LambertGood insight...<p>Good insight...</p>Apinak commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c343c6572970b2012-12-03T19:03:45Z2012-12-03T19:03:45ZApinakNothing done in Washington makes any sense if you try to view things through the prism of politicians trying to...<p>Nothing done in Washington makes any sense if you try to view things through the prism of politicians trying to get things done and make the country a better place to live. But, if you instead view events through the prism of a bunch of corrupt politicians doing the bidding of a few plutocrats and special interests to ensure their their own reelection and accumulation of wealth, then all their actions are clear and predictable.</p>Dave commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5dff706970d2012-12-03T18:49:29Z2012-12-03T18:49:29ZDaveAnother factor on military spending: Of the next 13 largest spenders, 10 of them are in long-standing and well-established alliances...<p>Another factor on military spending: Of the next 13 largest spenders, 10 of them are in long-standing and well-established alliances led by the United States (the 3 that aren&#39;t are Russia, China, and Brazil). So for the US to even come close to truly needing all this military firepower, they would need to undo diplomatic relationships that have been in place for, in some cases, over a century.<br />
</p>Dickeylee commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6b2d13970c2012-12-03T18:44:56Z2012-12-03T18:44:56ZDickeyleeHahahaha! Oh a funny! Any hint of such will immediatly have a "crisis" arise that demands 12 divisions in response.<p>Hahahaha! Oh a funny! Any hint of such will immediatly have a &quot;crisis&quot; arise that demands 12 divisions in response.</p>Dickeylee commented on ''Where Most Cuts Should be Coming From''tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e6b2c43970c2012-12-03T18:44:25Z2012-12-03T18:44:25ZDickeyleeHahahaha! Oh a funny! Any hint of such will immediatly have a "crisis" arise that demands 12 divisions in response.<p>Hahahaha! Oh a funny! Any hint of such will immediatly have a &quot;crisis&quot; arise that demands 12 divisions in response.</p>