Measuring the fallout from a bad debate

On this day — Good economic news helps to buoy the markets; the New York Post reports that Chris Christie is “seriously considering a run”; a FOX News poll puts Rick Perry back into second place following a bad debate performance; Perry backs off his “heartless” comment; both Mitt Romney and Perry try to downplay expectations when it comes to soon-to-be-announced fundraising totals for the quarter; and the federal health care reform bill heads to the Supreme Court.

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Good Economic News: There was a double dose of good economic news from the government early Thursday morning, which reported that GPD grew faster than expected and that jobless claims were significantly less than Wall Street’s projections.

Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said.

The rate of GDP growth was faster than the government’s prior reading of 1.0%.

This is the third and final revision in the government’s estimate of second-quarter growth in goods and services. The government provides three estimates of economic growth each reflecting more complete information than the previous one.

The revision was slightly higher than expectations of economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who figured GDP would be revised up to 1.2% growth.

New this morning:The New York Post (salt required) reports that Henry Kissinger, Nancy Reagan and George W. Bush are all pushing for Chris Christie to jump into the presidential race and that he’s seriously considering entering the race.

It was a debate performance that was roundly criticized by conservatives. His inability to respond to questions about his immigration record without angering his base (see the ‘heartless’ answer) and his inability to articulate an obviously prepared line of attack against Mitt Romney, raised questions about Perry’s electability and mental dexterity with the much of the Republican establishment, who are still sitting on the sidelines. The dissatisfaction with Perry’s debate performance has registered in the polling, a new national survey of Republican primary/caucus voters puts Perry in second place, his weakest showing since entering the race more than a month ago.

It’s important to note two things in this poll — even though Romney has moved back into first place, he’s still polling in the same range that he has been for a while. The deterioration (there’s no telling if it’s short or long-term at this point) in Perry’s standing does not seem to have boosted Romney at all. Secondly, the support that Perry has lost seems to have moved, at least temporarily, to Herman Cain and New Gingrich, both candidates were considered also-rans until this latest poll. The anti-Romney voting block still seems to remain in tact, it’s just divided over more candidates than it was. It also seems to indicate that there is a good bit of fluidity to this voting block, which could mean that with a good debate performance, Perry could find himself back on top. To put it another way, there’s nothing indicating that a die has been permanently cast, yet.

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Managing Expectations

With fundraising reports due into the Federal Elections Commission this week, both the Romney and Perry campaigns are doing their best to manage expectations before the filing. The Houston Chronicle’s Joe Holley reports that the Perry campaign is hoping for a haul of between $10-12 million:

Perry also will benefit from at least five so-called super-PACS, which are allowed to raise and spend as much money as they wish as long as they do not directly coordinate their fundraising with the candidate or a party. Perry’s super-PACS include a group calling itself Make Us Great Again, which was formed in late July by a group of major Perry donors. Co-founded by Mike Toomey, Perry’s former chief of staff, Make Us Great Again expects to spend at least $55 million on the governor’s behalf.

The Perry camp may be trying to play the venerable low-expectations game with the $10 million figure, but experts say that amount will keep him competitive with the former Massachusetts governor through the end of the year and into the crucial early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

“He will always be able to say that he was fundraising for only half the time, and that’s true,” Jones said, “but it also means that Romney tapped out his first wave of donors in the first and second quarters – the low-hanging fruit, in other words. Perry’s doing that now. He’s calling the 250 to 300 people who financed his gubernatorial campaigns. The first quarter’s the easiest. Then he has to go outside that initial circle of friends, has to get outside his comfort zone.”

The Boston Globe reports that Romney’s campaign expects to raise significantly less this quarter than they did last quarter:

Aides contend that Romney’s top rival —Texas Governor Rick Perry — will raise more than he will, even though Perry has been in the race for only six weeks. The fund-raising quarter doesn’t end until Friday and campaigns don’t have to file their reports until Oct. 15 but already they are playing an expectations game over the figures.

“We are going to raise considerably less than what we did in our first reporting period, but we will still meet our finance goals for this quarter,’’ said Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul. “Rick Perry is a brand new candidate raising primary and general election dollars, and as the governor of a large state and former [Republican Governors Association] chair we suspect he will lead the Republican field in fund-raising for this quarter.’’

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Florida in January; Iowa and New Hampshire? Even earlier

The Los Angeles Times reports that Florida is moving it’s primary into late January, a decision that will push the entire presidential primary calendar forward, with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary possibly happening as early as the first week of January.

One thing is certain: Iowa and New Hampshire won’t be dislodged from their positions as the leadoff caucuses and primary state, respectively.

Matt Strawn, Iowa’s Republican Party chairman, reaffirmed to the Des Moines Register on Wednesday that his state “will be first.” He also argued that the moves by Florida and others only make the caucuses more important.

“A compressed caucus and primary calendar makes doing well in the four kickoff states a necessity for a candidate to secure the Republican nomination,” he said.

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The Clips

– The Washington Post reports that that the Justice Department has asked the Supreme Court to review the constitutionality of the federal health care reform legislation that was passed in 2009.