A blog on strategies, and applying strategic perspectives on business related issues, and on miscellaneous discussions about China

2006-04-18

Li Yi: Hu-Bush Meeting and Iran Crisis

Li Yi has made a very insightful obseravtion today. He first laid out the fact that there will be no breakthrough in trade, RMB or Taiwan. The rhetorics are for the respective domestic audience. Then he asked what achievemnet could they accomplish. It became interesting.

Historical event: 1969 (Source: Joseph Alsop)

China and USSR on the brink of war, border conflict in Zhenbao Island

China vowed it can sustained a nuclear war, even if that means loss of half its population, there would still be 300M left then

USSR planned a surgical operation on China's small nuclear power. But it tried to seek opinion from US (Sunbin: it was the beginning of Detente, and both realized the danger of nuke)

US expressed strong disagreement

Soviet Premier Kosygin subquently made a sudden visit to Beijing, taking a detour on his return trip from Hanoi, to meet Zhou Enlai -- it is quite obviously that Kosygin made the trip after the message from US

Soviet army on the border was withdrawn and Chinese were cooled. The Sino-Russian border became quiet afterward

Today:

Iran nuke crisis. The proud, fearless, nationalistic, and religious Iranians vowed to sacrifice their own lives

US considering a surgerical operation to Iran

Li noted an insignficant event: Chinese Assistant to Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai just came back from Tehran

Hu-Bush meeting in US

Li then proceed to say: Even though China today is no comparison to US in 1969, there is no other candidate as mediator. Will there be a senior level meeting between US and Iran soon? This will be called an achievement.