2016-04-13

Brexit Back in Front

The most suprising thing is the consistently large number of "I don't know" in the polling data. I'd have to dig into to the data, but the latest ICM poll that shows a lead for Brexit appears to be a poll of all potential voters, not likely voters. This is crucial because the Brexit turnout is going to be higher for the Leave side because anyone who wants Britain out of the EU is definitely going to vote.

The polls are clearly narrowing around 50%. The Remain side is still a few percentage points ahead in the average of all the polls.

If UK leaves, Germany becomes more powerful. This makes EU membership less attractive to some other countries. At this point, I don't think UK will leave, but it would set big changes in motion if they leave.