It's Time to Man Up on Fourth Down

Updated Sept. 26, 2009 12:01 a.m. ET

Every time an NFL coach chooses to punt instead of going for it on fourth and one, it's almost a guarantee that the decision will be met by a chorus of boos. This may be one of the rare moments in sports when the guy nursing a beer in the last row is smarter than the coach on the sidelines calling the plays.

ENLARGE

Associated Press

An analysis of the 2008 season shows that coaches who decide to go for it on fourth down with two yards or less to go often have better results than those who choose to kick a field goal or give the ball back to the other guys with a punt. In fact, NFL teams that went for it in these short-yardage situations last year were successful 70% of the time. They averaged three yards when they ran the ball and nearly eight yards on pass plays.

Most NFL coaches have a good intuitive feel for how likely they are to score from any point on the field. There's a good reason they kick field goals from 30 yards out, for instance. The numbers back that decision up. What they don't seem to understand is how significant that 70% conversion rate really is. If a team faces a fourth and short at its own 40-yard line, most coaches will call out the punter. But the math says they'd be better off going for the first down. The same theory applies to situations where a team has a fourth and short on the opposing team's 15-yard line: Most coaches will take the field goal but the numbers show it's clearly a better bet to try for the first down and hold out for the touchdown instead.

No coach ignored this math more often last season than Philadelphia's Andy Reid. On 10 different occasions, the conservative Mr. Reid punted or kicked in situations where the statistics favored going for it. Even after subtracting the points the Eagles did score from field goals, Mr. Reid passed up a total of 18 points.

So when the Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, don't be alarmed if the boo birds get on Mr. Reid's case for marching out the kicking team in a crucial situation. This time, they actually know what they're talking about.

—Bill Barnwell

Don't Be a Chicken

2008 data show that NFL coaches ought to go for it more often on fourth and short—even from their own 40-yard line and even from inside the other team's 15-yard line.

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