Gold futures soared more than 1% on Thursday, aiming to extending its advance for a fourth-straight trading day. The precious metal reached a two-week high as the U.S. dollar retreated after a downbeat economic data.

Gold futures for February delivery jumped 1.25% to trade at $1158.47 an ounce in light volume. This is the level not seen since December 14th. The dollar index dropped 0.55% to 102.66.

According to data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, the U.S. trade deficit climbed 5.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual $65.3 billion. November’s reading was larger than the $62.5 billion gap forecast by economists. Particularly, exports increased 1.0% to $121.7 billion while imports advanced 1.2% compared to those of October.

As most gold is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback makes the precious metal less expensive for other currency holders, presumably raising demand.

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Global stocks were set to close a tumultuous year with mixed notes on Friday. While Japanese equities and European Stoxx Europe 600 Index looked set to have their first annual decline in five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is about to record its first annual gain since 2013. China was at risks of marking one of the worst performances with the Shanghai Composite Index on course for a yearly decline of 12 percent.

The Euro surged sharply in early Asia trading hours on Friday, jumping from around $1.0490 to trade above $1.0700 in a blink. This is its highest level in two weeks after being stuck in a range from $1.0370 to $1.0480. According to market analysts, the steep up move wasn’t likely driven by any specific fundamental news, but partly due to a broad dollar selling as traders closed their book ahead of the New Year holiday.

In the currency market, the greenback was broadly lower against its rivals. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its major peers, dropped more than 0.6 percent to 102.03, paring its annual gain to 3.8 percent after reaching a 14-year high of 103.65 on Dec. 20.

Crude futures made fractional gains on Friday, following data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed smaller-than-expected growth in U.S. crude inventories last week. EIA stated that U.S. crude stockpiles added 614,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 23, far below the 4.2-million barrels increase reported by the industry group American Petroleum Institute. However, the figure still contrasted with a 1.2-million barrel contraction forecast by analysts.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at $54.00 a barrel, up 0.43%, in the Globex electronic session. Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange ticked 0.37% higher to $57.06 a barrel. Oil trading remained tepid ahead of the New Year holiday. Global oil markets will be closed Monday.

Technicals

EURGBP

Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has been riding an uptrend. The pair spiked to as high as 0.86686 – the highest level since November 15th, before paring its gains and falling back to the support at 0.85800. Buyers are still dominating on the market but it seems hard for the pair to reach today’s high or set another record settlement. Therefore, it much more likely for set a target at 0.86300 in the event of continual up moves.

USDZAR has been under downward pressure created by the short-term MA20 which forced the pair to reversed lower after hitting this dynamic resistance at 13.79900. RSI has also reversed lower, indicating the emergence of bearish force.

Brent crude has been trapped in a trading range between the resistance at 57.20 and the support at 56.60. The price action has twisted with a couple of short-term and long-term MAs. The commodity may fall lower given the fact that RSI has fallen below the central line.

Coffee pulled back from the support at 61.8% Fibonacci level after failing to break out of the long-term 50-hour moving average. The commodity price now faces the dynamic resistance again and is expected to cross over this stance to surge higher, as RSI index indicates an overwhelming bullish force in the market.

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Asian shares started the new year with a positive note on Tuesday, buoyed by confidence stemming from European equities which surged to the highest in a year on Monday. All of Asia's major markets along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the U.S. and Canada closed for the New Year holiday yesterday, leaving trade in other parts of the euro zone thin and volatile. Germany's DAX gained 0.9 percent to its highest in nearly 17 months while France's CAC soared 0.5 percent to a 13-month peak.

Solid factory growth in China and Europe gave the global manufacturing sector a fresh boost at the start of 2017. Data from a private business survey showed China's factory activity rose more than expected last month. Thanks to accelerating demand and soaring output, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) picked up in December, rising to 51.9, from 50.9 in the previous month. The reading hit the strongest level since January 2013.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped rose 0.4 percent after finishing 2016 3.7 percent higher, recording its best year in four. Japanese market remained closed for an extended New Year holiday. The best performers in the region are Australian shares which saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.2 percent, advancing for the third time in four trading days. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite were all higher.

The People's bank of China (PBOC) on Tuesday nearly doubled the number of foreign currencies in a basket used to set the renminbi's value. From the first trading day of 2017, the central bank increased the number of currencies in the CFETS basket to 24 from 13, in an attempt to make the yuan index less influenced by moves in the U.S. dollar. After this change, the nominal dollar weighting in the new basket is reduced by 4 percent.

Technicals

GBPJPY

Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

GBPJPY has breached the resistance at 144.500 level after moving sideways around this handle since last Friday. The price action has crossed over the moving averages, suggesting a reversal into a new uptrend. The RSI and ADX is soaring, not to mention a wide gap between the +DI and –DI line. The pair may soar higher to attempt another resistance at 145.500.

The pair USDJPY has broken out of a thin trading range to witness a strong up move in the first trading day of the new year. Buyers are supporting the dollar to break the 117.800 level again. Both indicators are confirming the strong bullish force which is dominating in the market. The pair is expected to retest the high at 118.600.

Although the crude price has been trading in a thin range around the key level 54.00, it has been supported by a couple of moving average. Indeed, the U.S. oil price pulled back after hitting the short-term MA20 at 53.89. RSI continued to edging higher, supporting further advances.

France’s CAC40 index opened Tuesday session with a gap up, extending its strong gains to the second day. The stock benchmark ended 10 days of trading in a thin range, sending the market into a fresh uptrend. The ADX index has soared above 20, confirming the upmove. A soaring RSI and a divergence between the +DI and –DI lines also indicate overwhelming buyers in the market.

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Crude oil prices took off in the first trading day of 2017 on hopes that an output-cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will deplete a global supply glut. Oil futures markets were closed on Monday for New Year public holidays.

International benchmark Brent soared more than 2 percent to hit a 18-month high at $58.35 per barrel before retreating to around $58.07 per barrel at 11:00 GMT.

The agreement, which witnesses the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters led by Russia to collectively reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), kicked in on Sunday, Jan.1. Markets are waiting to see whether those producers stick to their part of the deal.
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The Japanese Yen lost ground to its American counterpart amidst bullish sentiment in the global stock markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been supported by upbeat economic data.

The dollar index which gauges the strength of the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, added nearly 0.1% to 103.30 in Asian trading hours. The index has soared to as high as 103.82 yesterday following the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI which showed U.S. factory activity accelerated to a two-year high in December.

On the contrary, the Yen, which usually benefits from demand for safe-haven assets, struggled for traction as Asian shares including Japanese equities edged higher.

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