Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Post Mosul Liberation Day 21 Jul 31 2017

There were continued
clearing and rebuilding operations in Mosul. First, the Iraqi forces (ISF) arrested 12 Islamic State members attempting to escape across the Tigris River
from east to west Mosul. They were picked up in three different neighborhoods.
Second, the Federal Police announced they were
done with 40% of their sweep through the Old City. Three weeks after the city
was declared liberated IS elements continue to be killed and arrested, and
explosives defused. This is a major reason why so few displaced are returning
to the city; they don’t think it is safe yet. Third, a man was freed after being kidnapped for ransom. He was taken in the northeast and
found by the army’s 16th Division. There have been sporadic reports
of crime taking place in Mosul since the east was freed at the start of 2017.
Unfortunately, the lack of jobs and money is likely a driving force. Fourth, 14
bodies were discovered in the Old City of West Mosul. Civil Defense units believe there are
hundreds of people still buried in the west, and they have weeks more work to
do to find them. Finally, engineers are working on building a new pontoon bridge across the Tigris to link east and
west Mosul. The city used to have five bridges across the span but those were
all destroyed by the U.S. Coalition. Now these is just one bridge, which
severely restricts the movement of people and supplies between the two halves.
The World Bank has also fast tracked programs to rebuild the five original
bridges.

The head of the
Ninewa Operations Command told Reuters that he believed the battle for Tal Afar will be a quick one. He
estimated that there were only 1,500-2,000 IS fighters in the district along
with their families. He claimed they were a broken force, and there would not
be any heavy fighting. Many members fled already leaving mostly foreign
fighters behind. Similar statements were made about Mosul. For example, at the
start of 2017 the ISF claimed that west Mosul would be easy because most of the
insurgents had escaped, and the ones remaining suffered low morale. The west
turned out to be the toughest fighting of the entire war. While IS is losing,
they are not giving up. In fact, their continued resistance against the odds is
being used in their propaganda to show the group’s resilience. The Iraqi
narrative on the other hand is that IS is barely hanging on, and few of them
are left. Of course, when the battle is over the number of militants will go
dramatically up in the usual death inflation to make the victory look even more
impressive.

There are still
displaced (IDPs) moving back and forth in Ninewa. There are a total of 837,450 IDPs in Ninewa. From July 26-28, 226 families arrived in
camps, roughly 1,300 people. That was the same amount the week before. Most
came from Tal Afar, which is coming under increasing air strikes. Others were
from west Mosul who fled to the east, but then left due to a lack of services,
insecurity, or their homes were destroyed. During that same period, 492 families,
approximately 2,900 IPDs, left camps. Not all of them went to their homes
however. Some entered secondary displacement by opting to live with sponsor
families rather than stay in the camps. There have been increasing complaints
that the summer heat is making them unbearable, and leading people leave. Prime
Minister Haidar Abadi is trying to set up a timetable for when all the IDPs will return in Ninewa. The
Displacement Ministry has said it would like to see most families back in their
homes by the end of the year. So far, however the rates going back to Mosul
have been pretty low. Much of west Mosul is leveled, and people still fear for
their safety with all the reports of IS activity. Once there is better
security, many more are likely to go back despite the harsh conditions.

Kuwait talked with Premier Abadi about hosting a conference of donor countries and
the World Bank to garner aid for the rebuilding of Ninewa and Iraq in general.
The Emir of Kuwait called Abadi in July telling him that his nation was still
willing to sponsor the conference. No date was set, but the two are hoping it
could happen by the start of 2018. Kuwait is one of the few regional countries
that has consistently provided humanitarian aid to Iraq during the war against
the Islamic State, and has given extensively to Ninewa. This conference is one
of two Iraq plans to try to garner the majority of the millions of dollars it
needs for reconstruction since it lacks the money itself due to low oil prices.

Finally, there was
more news that the Ninewa council is planning to move against the Governor
Noufal al-Akub. In July, he was removed from the ruling coalition in the provincial government. That was followed by reports that Akub would be questioned over corruption charges so that he could
be dismissed. Former Defense Minister Khalid al-Obeidi and ex-Governor Atheel Nujafi have both been mentioned as possible replacements. Ninewa follows in
the footsteps of Salahaddin and Anbar that faced political dissension after
being liberated. That has held up the rebuilding process as factions have
plotted against each other for control rather than focus on governing.

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Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com