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The World Water Crisis and International Security

Harald D Frederiksen is a Water Resources Management consultant, based in Eugene, Oregon. Mr. Frederiksen's assignments in the Middle East region have included Khuzestan regional development and the National Water Plan in Iran. He has given advice on privatization of utility services in two major industrial cities for the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu; Saudi Arabia; rehabilitation of irrigation systems and agricultural support services on Jordan's East Bank for USAID, and agricultural development for the government of Afghanistan. Mr. Frederiksen has written extensively on the Israeli/Palestinian water issues, the adverse impacts on the adjacent countries and an approach to address the water aspects of the dispute. Recently, he has also provided advice on policy, institutional and technical aspects of water-resources management to governments, the World Bank and bilateral agencies in East Asia and South America.

Harald D. Frederiksen

Mr. Frederiksen served with the India Irrigation Division and later was head of the Water Resources Advisory Unit for the country departments in the World Bank’s South and East Asia regions, following management positions in two international consulting firms.

Most countries, including many of the world’s largest, are rapidly increasing demands upon overcommitted national and international water resources, transforming disputes among riparians into serious regional and international security issues. The economic and social impacts, even the consequences of the displacement and migration of the affected people, are already evident. High population growth rates, unsustainable in most regions, amplify the problems. Now, pressing concerns for food self-sufficiency are causing the wealthier water-short countries to seek agreements to produce their food supply in distant countries that are also short of water. Yet the leading nations and agencies of the international community do not sufficiently highlight the security risks in situations where several riparians aggressively struggle over the same resources. There is no active permanent effort to deal with current crises and prepare for future ones.

Since the 1800s, people have spoken of pending crises for all of mankind caused by high population growth and limited natural resources. While the end has not been physically reached, the ramifications of today’s conditions in several regions are approaching crisis levels from the standpoint of international security. Millions of people confront the severe risks that will be triggered by the next inevitable drought in their regions. Even without global warming, crippling water shortages will multiply.

To illustrate, crises in four regions — all with a different history of water issues — will be summarized. Three of them involve neighboring countries within a larger unstable area, a coincidence that could further aggravate their individual conditions. The first, South Asia, describes a basin without a permanent water-sharing agreement. The second, the Nile River basin, is saddled with a disputed colonial allocation of resources awarded to one of the ten riparians. The third, the Middle East, has two basins in crisis, one with a dominating riparian, another where one riparian gained full control of the resources through prolonged military actions. The fourth illustrates the new phenomenon: wealthy countries short of water securing long-term arrangements for agricultural production to serve their own needs. Following the summary of the regional water disputes, a discussion is offered on the seeming ineffectiveness of the international community’s present organizational arrangements and agency charters and a suggestion for more productive deliberations to meet the urgent need for action now. These crises exist now, in 2009, not in some future year.

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The Middle East Policy Council is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to contribute to American understanding of the political, economic and cultural issues that affect U.S. interests in the Middle East.