Petroleum products' share in India's imports could slip: HSBC

Petroleum products fall from India’s second largest import to third largest over the forecast period, behind industrial machinery and mineral manufactures.Bilal Abdi | ETEnergyWorld | Updated: December 21, 2016, 21:11 IST

New Delhi: Global investment bank HSBC today forecast in its latest report on India’s Trade the position of petroleum products in the country’s imports are set to fall from the current second place to third place between 2015-2030.

“Petroleum products fall from India’s second largest import to third largest over the forecast period, behind industrial machinery and mineral manufactures. This is in line with the government’s focus to raise the share of manufacturing in GDP to 25% from 14% currently. However, petroleum products remain important and, along with industrial machinery and mineral manufactures, they will contribute around a third of India’s total import growth between 2015 and 2030,” the report said.

Data accessed by ETEnergyWorld indicates that India’s import bill in the first six months of the current fiscal stood at $ 174.4 billion down 13.79 percent as compared to corresponding period last fiscal year. Of this, the share of total petroleum imports – including crude oil and petroleum products -- stood at $37 billion, around 21 percent of India’s gross imports in value terms during the period.

HSBC’s India Trade report further added that the composition of the country’s trading partners will largely reflect reliance on imported crude for domestic energy requirements. “Oil exporting countries such as UAE and Saudi Arabia will consolidate their position in the top five import origin rankings, while Indonesia will appear and the new entry by 2030,” the report added.

While the global investment bank forecasts a weakening of crude’s hold on the countries import bill, it goes on to say the contribution of petroleum products as part of the country’s export is also expected to fall slightly during the 2021-30 forecast period.

“The composition of India’s exports is forecast to remain broadly unchanged over the next couple of decades, with mineral manufactures, transport equipment and petroleum products contributing around one-third to the increase in exports in 2021-30,” the report said. “However, within these categories, the contribution of petroleum production falls slightly over the forecast period. This is partly because of reforms like deregulation of domestic diesel prices that increase the attractiveness of the domestic fuel market,” the report added.

India’s export bill in the first six months of the present fiscal year stood at $ 131.4 billion down by 1.72 percent as compared to the corresponding period last fiscal year, according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). Out of which the share of petroleum product export stood at $ 13.5 billion, around 10 percent of India’s gross exports in value terms in the first six months of the current fiscal.

The report adds that in absolute size, the US and UAE are likely to remain the dominant export destinations, with UAE overtaking the US as India’s largest export partner by 2030. “This is primarily because the UAE is the largest consumer of India’s petroleum product exports, but also due to its role as a regional trading hub,” the report said.