As popular uprisings swept
the Arab world, many experts stressed that Saudi Arabia was
immune from turbulences, let alone, regime-ousting uprisings.
Confident that its internal front was impeccably secure, the
Saudi regime focused on achieving its external overarching
goals, which ranged from holding at bay the spread of popular
uprisings clamouring for democratic change, to severely
undermining what it perceives, as the mounting Iranian and Shia
influence, and ensuring the survival of other monarchies.

The Saudi regime offered
Ben Ali, Tunisia’s dictator, refuge, and the Saudi king gave his
emphatic support to Mubarek, Eygpt’s tyrant. And even, in the
post-Mubarek era, it has regained its huge influence through the
military council and the extremist Salafi movement. As for
Yemen, the Saudi regime launched its own initiative to replace
Saleh - Yemen’s dictator, by another staunch ally, namely his
deputy, Mansour - and to underline the futility of uprisings.

For the Saudis, the
Bahraini uprising was indisputably the nightmare scenario.
Since, Bahrain - a deeply entrenched dictatorship - is governed
by Al Khalifa family, from the Sunni minority, while the vast
majority are Shia. Similarly, the Shia constitute the
overwhelming majority in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern
Province, which is literally a stone-throw from Bahrain. Shia in
both countries, have constantly complained of intolerable
discrimination. Fearing the pervasion of the uprising to Saudi
Arabia, the king offered billions of dollars in benefits,
strictly prohibited protests, rewarded the Wahhabi Salafi
religious establishment and, most ominously, gave the green
light to the Saudi army to invade and occupy Bahrain.

What is incontestable is
the pivotal role played by the radical and regressive Wahhabi
Salafi religious establishment in giving religious legitimacy to
the Saudi regime, which in turn provides it with the vital
funding to propagate and export its violent ideology. According
to the Wahhabi ideology it is strictly forbidden to oppose the
ruler. The fatwas issued by the religious establishment were
utilised by the Interior ministry headed by Nayef, which
declared, on February 2011, that these protests were the new
terrorism and would be crushed, just like Al-Qaida. The death of
Sultan, and the appointment of Nayef, in October 2011, was
marked by the cold blooded murder of protestors in the Eastern
province.

The Saudi regime’s
overriding priority has always been to establish and bolster its
position as the indisputable guardian of Sunni Islam. Ever since
the Iranian revolution, the
Saudi regime has endeavoured to present all the major conflicts
in the region as an integral part of an ongoing existential
sectarian war waged against Sunnis by Iran. So, when the
uprising erupted in Bahrain, the Saudi regime strived to
instigate sectarian strife, to stave of any uprising by its
Sunni majority.

The USA must be holding
its breath as Saudi Arabia’s uprising surmounts sectarian
divisions by spreading to Sunni areas like Hijaz, and even
reaching the regime’s heartland, in Riyadh.

The weakening in the Saudi
regime’s internal front is largely due to: first, it has
tirelessly supported dictators in crushing uprisings by the
Sunnis in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. Second, its inconsistent
position in unequivocally backing secular monarchies like
Morocco, Jordan against Sunni Islamic movements. Third, the
king’s inexcusable failure to activate the allegiance council to
select the heir to the throne twice within eight months. This,
has consolidated the widespread perception that the royal family
is embroiled in a vicious power struggle, and it marginalises
its senior members. Fourth, the undeniable success of uprisings
in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen in ousting their dictators.
Fifth, the King’s failure to lead by example, rather than
stipulating reform and a halt to killings in Syria. Sixth, the
failure to tackle the chronic problems, such as unemployment and
corruption. Seventh, foreign educated Saudis are increasingly
questioning the legitimacy of dictatorship. Eighth, mounting
fears of secession by the Eastern province. And finally, the
death of Nayef has revealed that he was used by the regime as
the perfect pretext for not undertaking meaningful reform.
Because, despite the appointment of Salman – who is perceived as
a reformer - there has been absolutely no reforms. And
alarmingly, an upsurge in the regime’s savagery, especially with
the arrest and even torture of the Shia religious leader Nimr Al
Nimr.

The USA should be deeply
concerned about the stability of Saudi Arabia, not only because
its implacable support to the regime has made a mockery of its
pretention of defending democracy and human rights, but, more
menacingly, Saudi Arabia was the country where (15 out of 19) of
the 9/11 suicide bombers, and the mastermind, Osama Bin Laden,
came from. The USA needs to stand on the right side of the
present and future of Saudi Arabia, by extending the
oil-for-protection deal to an (oil and concrete democratic
reforms-for-protection deal).

Zayd
Alisa is a political analyst and a writer on Middle East
affairs. Zayd was born in New York, USA and is also a British
citizen resident in London. His parents are originally from
Iraq.

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