I just figured I should point our the flaw in your logic: We are the majority by a bit. So the individual lynch probabilities are overruled by the big picture. Two lynches have a good chance of getting at least one mafia. We have enough people to do that for a few nights until the inspector finds a mafia. Of course, I agree that getting people talking is good, since it could help improve those odds, but I disagree on 31%-37% chance of randing a mafia being unfavorable.

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My point here was basically that lynching off of next to no information with that 31-37% of success is bad. If we find somebody with suspicious behavior (e.g. fast bandwagoning), then, as you said, we have enough people to afford a lynch. However, if we don't really have any information, then risking the higher chance of killing off a village isn't very good, is it?

Depending on the exact numbers, yes it is. Unfortunately, we lack knowledge of the mafia's exact numbers + any neutrals + whatever else, so the numbers also might not support it. Either way, I agree with the other thing you implied/said, that having a reason (like bandwagoning) would indeed be beneficial.

Finally read through the game.
@ Ditto, Aura and Empoof were RVSing and starting discussion. That's starting conversation...pro-town from where I'm standing.
I would like to point out that 2 people voting together in an NOC of 16 players isn't bandwagoning. It's more like...buddying perhaps?

Here are my insanely premature reads:
Ditto: Town
Aura: Town
Spiffy: Town because scums don't willingly sub out in my experience
Empoof: Noob town for voting NL, even in RVS
EP: Town
NWO: Noob town or scum, the two are really hard to tell apart

Moderator

This is mainly to put more pressure on him to post his defense, which I am wholeheartedly want him to post. I do think that there is a chance that he may have just fucked up or brain farted when he voted, so I'd like to see him clarify. Other people can join in I guess, but we should give him a chance to redeem himself, so DO NOT HIT MAJORITY (which should be 11, even if there is a Mayor). If he does not try to defend himself before deadline, than he deserves to be lynched.

Should probably post in here while I have the chance, birthday weekend so I'll be busy tomorrow but I'll try to be back to post again tomorrow, Sunday at the latest.

NWO's lynch definitely looks odd, but it could have been a simple noob move or him trying to generate discussion. Still, I'm eager to see his defense and see what he says.

At the people arguing for a no lynch, while we do likely have better odds of hitting one of our own than hitting a mafia with a lynch, without a lynch it's much, much more difficult to find a scum because we don't generate nearly as much discussion. If deadline is near and there's still no semi-obvious lynch target, then a no lynch *might* be viable. Until then, we should be looking to put pressure on people, like Ditto is for NWO, and see if we can find some scummy people. No lynching right now is not in the village's best interests.

Empoof, no lynch is just a bad idea cause it will could put mafia in a good position, seeing as we likely won't have too much to go off of this entire game.

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You seem to be very hypocritical. You openly said right here that no lynch would put mafia in a favorable position, yet you criticize me for lynching who I thought was the most suspicious individual. You seemed eager to start casting suspicion on other people, so I thought you were mafia. After reading some other posts, I've decided to unvote for now until we've decided who is most suspicious. I am mayor in case everyone is wondering, and I can prove it. Once we have 9 other people voting on a suspect, I can make the last vote to hit the majority. Since there are 20 people and I have 2 votes (I think I'm the only one with 2 votes) there are 21 votes total. So 11 votes is enough to hit a majority. 9 from other people, one from me.

EDIT: And for those of you who couldn't tell, the Imposter Ditto thing was obviously a joke.

You seem to be very hypocritical. You openly said right here that no lynch would put mafia in a favorable position, yet you criticize me for lynching who I thought was the most suspicious individual. You seemed eager to start casting suspicion on other people, so I thought you were mafia. After reading some other posts, I've decided to unvote for now until we've decided who is most suspicious. I am mayor in case everyone is wondering, and I can prove it. Once we have 9 other people voting on a suspect, I can make the last vote to hit the majority. Since there are 20 people and I have 2 votes (I think I'm the only one with 2 votes) there are 21 votes total. So 11 votes is enough to hit a majority. 9 from other people, one from me.

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First of all, if you are mayor claiming it so soon probably wasn't the best idea, since you've just made yourself a prime target for the mafia. Also, while your idea of voting for the person who was the most suspicious was fine, your reasoning as to why Ditto was suspicious was extremely faulty; Ditto wasn't trying to cause infighting, he was trying to promote discussion, which we need. Ditto is criticizing you not for trying to lynch someone you found suspicious, but for the logic you used for lynching him.

Anyway, since you say you're mayor I think you're probably clean; it's a role that's extremely easy to prove wrong (with fatal results for the fake claimer) and it's unlikely that the mafia would have a mayor vote (though if they do that would suck). Would be nice to hear other people's thoughts on this though; there may be something I'm missing here.

First of all, if you are mayor claiming it so soon probably wasn't the best idea, since you've just made yourself a prime target for the mafia. Also, while your idea of voting for the person who was the most suspicious was fine, your reasoning as to why Ditto was suspicious was extremely faulty; Ditto wasn't trying to cause infighting, he was trying to promote discussion, which we need. Ditto is criticizing you not for trying to lynch someone you found suspicious, but for the logic you used for lynching him.

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Completely agreeing with this. At least we know you're clean?

Anyway, if anyone else is mayor, perhaps they could come out and we could have a mayor-off? If somebody else does come out, then we have a mafia lynched, which outweighs having a clean mayor known. If nobody does come out and claim as mayor, we'll know that NWO is clean.

I guess we should find someone else to vote to generate discussion and not have them claim?

Anyway, NWO I can't believe you just claimed mayor when it wasn't really necessary; You only had like two or three votes on you??? But like Engineer Pikachu said, if there is a mayor they should claim and have a "vote-off" with NWO.

@ walrein, I would like to point out that my RVS vote was for NWO, who appears now to be a very newb town indeed.

But anyways, I don't buy the mayor claim 100%. I don't see how mayor claim is in any way easy to prove, since we don't know if other vote manipulations exist in the game. Why NWO buckled under the intense pressure of 2, 3 votes, I don't know. However, I second getting NWO to L-1.

But anyways, I don't buy the mayor claim 100%. I don't see how mayor claim is in any way easy to prove, since we don't know if other vote manipulations exist in the game.

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It's fairly simple. We have everybody except NWO and the other mayor claim withdraw lynch votes, and they vote for each other. We then have a few possibilities that may arise:

a) NWO is telling the truth, and there is no other mayor.
Result: We lynch a false claim. This will never happen, though, as nobody would be idiotic enough to falsely claim mayor after somebody else already claims mayor, as we could just do this.

b) NWO is telling the truth, but there is another mayor.
Result: No lynch. Firstly, two village mayors is highly unlikely, and a mafia mayor is even more unlikely. We can probably discard this scenario, but if this were the case, we'd know that they were both mayor, as no non-mayor person would now claim mayor.

c) NWO is lying, and there is no other mayor besides the one that claimed.
Result: Mafia lynch. There's no reason NWO would false-claim mayor if he was village, and besides, cardflip is on so we know who he is if/when he dies. We'd have a mayor out in the open, but we're one up, so it wouldn't matter as much.

d)NWO is lying, but there is no other mayor.
Result: No lynch. But again, we can discard this scenario, as no non-mayor would false claim as mayor now???

And this is all assuming somebody else claims mayor. If nobody else steps up and challenges NWO's claim, we might as well accept him to be village for now. A mayor isn't exactly an uncommon role.

1. Get more info from him. Notice that in this response he doesn't defend himself, just counterattacks some more:

fat New World Order said:

You seem to be very hypocritical. You openly said right here that no lynch would put mafia in a favorable position, yet you criticize me for lynching who I thought was the most suspicious individual. You seemed eager to start casting suspicion on other people, so I thought you were mafia. After reading some other posts, I've decided to unvote for now until we've decided who is most suspicious. I am mayor in case everyone is wondering, and I can prove it. Once we have 9 other people voting on a suspect, I can make the last vote to hit the majority. Since there are 20 people and I have 2 votes (I think I'm the only one with 2 votes) there are 21 votes total. So 11 votes is enough to hit a majority. 9 from other people, one from me.

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By consensus he seems the most suspicious player by far, so at worst we clean him as noob town (or at least alleviate suspicion, good since mayor is useful late game so we don't want to lynch him now) and at best he cracks under pressure and outs himself as mafia. Either way, we should get a better read on him.

2. If anyone hammers him, they become suspect because they are either noob town or (more hopefully) scum.

Vote New World Order

Though I'm willing to unvote if it's necessary so that we can prove/disprove him as mayor against a counter claim.