Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of Coin versus Machine.

Looking Back at the Divisional Round

The models liked the underdogs against the spread last week, and three out of four 'dogs delivered. The Eagles and Jaguars both won outright, and the Saints covered as 5.5-point underdogs at the close. As you know well at this point, the Vikings beat the Saints 29-24 on a 61-yard touchdown pass from Case Keenum to Stefon Diggs on the game's final play. By rule, the teams had to line up for the extra point. So eight minutes after the touchdown, the field cleared, the teams lined up, the Vikings took a knee, and the Saints covered at +5.5 points.

The Vikings had opened the week as 3.5-point favorites, and if you grabbed them before Thursday, you may well have won with them (and three of the models would have, too). At the time I published last week's Coin versus Machine piece on Friday, they were 5-point favorites; at that level, the models liked the Saints as a Tier II pick, which would have pushed. Toward the end of last week's column, I pointed out that if the line were to move to 5.5, the Saints would become a five-model unanimous pick, which carried a 59.7% success rate against the spread this season (excluding Week 17). That's where the line ended up, and thanks to the Vikings' non-extra point, it worked out.

(I don't typically do this, but I'm showing the Vikings-Saints line at its close in the table below. More fun than showing a push.)

Looking Ahead to the Conference Championships

As of Friday afternoon, the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game. New England opened the week favored by 9.0 or 9.5 points, but rumors of an injury to Tom Brady's throwing hand have depressed the line (and even saw it removed from certain books for a period of time during the week). Three of the five models like Jacksonville at +7.5, and the line would have to shoot back up to 9.0 for the Jags to be "promoted" to a Tier II pick, wherein four of the five models like them against the spread. The Patriots, meanwhile, would become the five-model majority selection if the line were to fall to 5.5 before Sunday's 3:05pm ET kickoff. On average, the five models project the Patriots to win by 6.56 points, which is about a full point less than the current 7.5-point line.

There's more consensus among the models in the NFC Championship Game. Four of them prefer the Eagles as 3.0-point underdogs (and outright) at home against the Vikings, while R-P Excel's projection of "Vikings by 3" matches the Vegas line. The Eagles aren't technically five-model unanimous, but throughout the season, situations in which no models picked against a team qualified as Tier I "best bets," which carry a 60.0% win rate against the spread (excluding Week 17). The average projection across the five models is "Eagles by 1.04," which is a good four points off the current line. But tread very carefully, because most of the models don't factor in Nick Foles at QB for Philly.