I'm the vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, a foreign policy and national security think tank based in Washington, D.C. I focus on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Russian Federation, and have consulted for both the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as providing assistance to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices. I also serve as editor of The Journal of International Security Affairs. My most recent book, released in the summer of 2009 by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, is Winning the Long War: Retaking the Offensive Against Radical Islam.

2/02/2011 @ 4:15PM6,534 views

What Egyptians Want: Not Western-Style Democracy

Since it began late last month, the turmoil taking place in Egypt has spawned no shortage of expert commentary here in the United States. Some observers have argued that, despite the current ferment in Cairo, strongman Hosni Mubarak will stubbornly cling to power and ride out the storm. Others, however, have come to question the utility of America’s historic backing for the Mubarak regime—and counseled unequivocal support for its overthrow. Still others have taken the long view, seeing the Egyptian tumult as a belated vindication of the “Bush doctrine” of democracy promotion.

Precious few, however, have bothered to ask exactly what it is that ordinary Egyptians are after. They should, because—beyond the general dissatisfaction with the Mubarak regime now visible on the Egyptian “street”—the values and beliefs of the protestors are likely to have a profound influence on the nature of the political order that will eventually emerge there.

“According to a Pew opinion survey of Egyptians from June 2010, 59 percent said they back Islamists. Only 27% said they back modernizers. Half of Egyptians support Hamas. Thirty percent support Hezbollah and 20% support al Qaida. Moreover, 95% of them would welcome Islamic influence over their politics…

Eighty two percent of Egyptians support executing adulterers by stoning, 77% support whipping and cutting the hands off thieves. 84% support executing any Muslim who changes his religion.”

Egyptian values, in other words, are far from liberal—even if some of the protesters currently out in the streets might be. This, of course, runs counter to the idea that has taken hold in many quarters: that the end of the Mubarak era will inexorably lead to democracy in the heart of the Arab world. But numbers don’t lie; Egyptian society as a whole is both religious and deeply conservative.

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When you write that the Egyptians do not want “Western-Style Democracy” I think what you mean is they do not want a “Western Aligned Government”, which of course is what they have. I think that you are entirely correct that the vast majority of Egyptians, and by extension the entire non-Israeli population of south-west Asia, do not want a government that is pro-western. This is what happened in Gaza in 2006 after President Bush pushed for elections there. That is the problem with democracy, it works, and in this and other cases, it produces governments unsympathetic US interests.

I really hate to see those Pew numbers pulled out of context again. Yesterday, I commented on a separate Forbes post that cited that very article and survey.

It’s unfair to use those Pew numbers and only pull out the results relating to Egypt as if that was the only country surveyed. Jordan, Lebanon, Nigeria, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan were also surveyed.

When you look at the whole survey, youll find that Jordan has a much more favorable view of Hamas than Egypt while Lebanon feelings towards Hamas are at the same level of Egypt’s. Same idea goes for Hezbollah. As for Al Qaeda, I quoted directly from the survey: “Opinions of al Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden, are consistently negative; only in Nigeria do Muslims offer views that are, on balance, positive toward al Qaeda and bin Laden.”

As to the point about 95% of Egyptians welcoming Islamic influence over politics- if Im not mistaken, Egypt’s state religion is officially Islam and all new laws must be in line with Islamic teachings under the existing constitution.

We are setting ourselves for a massive disappointment if we think Egypt’s society, or any middle eastern country, will suddenly mirror our own.

Here’s the full survey: http://pewglobal.org/files/2010/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Muslim-Report-FINAL-December-2-2010.pdf

“When you look at the whole survey, youll find that Jordan has a much more favorable view of Hamas than Egypt while Lebanon feelings towards Hamas are at the same level of Egypt’s.”

Isn’t that precious. Just another reminder why most of the arab/muslim world needs to be treated as barely past barbaric

“We are setting ourselves for a massive disappointment if we think Egypt’s society, or any middle eastern country, will suddenly mirror our own.”

No one expects them to mirror “our own” but with all the problems with someone like Mubarak, perhaps we could have insisted on some reform with the BILLIONS we gave him, and perhaps we should insist that the “former muslim” current muslim-phile occupying our White House doesn’t so quickly hand up Mubarak and Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood.

For no matter how you preen about negative polling towards Al Queda, the Muslim Brotherhood is the Grandfather of AQ, Hamas and Hezbullah.

And if that’s what Egyptians want to support, a serious American President would make it clear that can have the MB, but without ONE PENNY of America aid, (and with the promise that if they attack Israel, the Aswan Dam will be destroyed).

Finally, lets not hear about how Hillary and Obama are just “surprised” by the events – they have been grooming the opposition with Soro’s help for over two years. (It’s all over the Euro press, not just the Right-Wing blogosphere).