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Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Nah, although Tannehill has definitely surprised, I go Luck, then RG3, then a pretty decent gap, and then Tannehill, Wilson, Weeden.

Heck at this point, if I had the choice, I'm not sure I wouldn't take Tannehill over Cam Newton. Part of that might just be the shiny new toy syndrome though. But the way Newton has carried himself this year, all the pouting. I think Luck and RG3 are clearly well ahead of Newton at this point.

It was only two months ago that Robert Griffin III made a grand entrance to the NFL, torching the New Orleans Saints for 320 yards passing and two touchdowns while completing 73 percent of his passes. In one game, the No. 2 pick in April's draft became the No. 1 rookie on everyone's mind, and he did little to change that over the next several weeks. In Weeks 6 and 7, the Washington Redskins passer put up a combined 667 yards of offense (passing and rushing) against the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants, and he seemed destined to win the rookie of the year award.

Yesterday, all that changed.

As Griffin underwhelmed in a loss to Carolina, two other rookies made history in wins. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck set a rookie record with 433 passing yards against Miami, while running back Doug Martin set a Tampa Bay franchise record with 251 yards rushing. Halfway through the 2012 season, the race for offensive rookie of the year seems wide open, but a closer look reveals a clear pecking order.

WEEK 9 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD

It's fairly simple to compare Griffin to Luck because they both play the same position. Griffin's raw stats (65.6 percent completion rate, 7.6 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, three interceptions) are clearly superior to Luck's (56.5 percent, 7.2 ypa, 10 TDs, 8 INTs), but when Football Outsiders' passing rankings are updated Tuesday afternoon, you'll find Luck's name above Griffin's by a significant margin. That's largely because Luck has thrown a lot of deep passes, while Griffin has mostly thrown small stuff.Nearly half of Griffin's passes (48 percent) have been thrown to receivers within five yards of the line of scrimmage. That's 10 percent higher than Luck's rate of short passes. On the other hand, 23 percent of Luck's passes have traveled at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage, while only 16 percent of Griffin's throws have gone that far. As a result, while Luck has completed 18 more passes than Griffin, Griffin actually has 24 more failed completions -- completions that failed to gain significant yardage toward a new set of downs -- than Luck.

That's not the only reason Luck outranks Griffin at FO. Although Luck has dropped back 73 more times than Griffin, RG3 has given up 20 sacks to Luck's 19. Luck has also played a more challenging slate of defenses, especially in Week 1. While Griffin began his professional career against the Saints (last in FO's pass defense rankings), Luck premiered against the Chicago Bears, far and away the league's best defense. If we throw out Week 1, Luck leads Griffin in yards per pass play (including sacks), 6.5 to 6.2.

That's only passing numbers, and Griffin has brought a running element to the Redskins like few quarterbacks in league history. With the possible exception of Michael Vick's Falcons, Vince Young's Titans and Cam Newton's Panthers, Griffin's Redskins run more option plays than anyone has seen before, and Griffin leads all quarterbacks with 529 rushing yards. Luck, though, is no statue, with 148 rushing yards. Advanced stats have Griffin as the most valuable rushing quarterback this season, but Luck is third behind Griffin and Aaron Rodgers. In other words, Griffin has the edge in rushing, but that edge is not big enough to make up for Luck's superior passing ability.

Comparing Martin to Luck and Griffin is difficult because he plays a different position, but it's safe to say he stands out more among his peers. To put that another way, it would be hard to argue that either Luck or Griffin is a top-10 quarterback, but Martin is clearly a top-10 running back and should probably rank somewhere in the top five at his position. He is sixth in FO's rushing rankings and fifth in our combined rushing/receiving statistics. Conventional statistics like him even more. He is third behind Minnesota's Adrian Peterson and Seattle's Marshawn Lynch in rushing yards, and Martin leads the league with 129.9 yards from scrimmage per game.

(By the way, Martin's game against Oakland would be even more impressive if you remove his final three carries. Trying to kill clock, Martin ran three times against an Oakland defense that knew what was coming and lost yards each time. The strategy preserved the win but cost Martin 15 yards rushing. At FO, we've wiped these plays from the books just like we do quarterback kneel-downs.)

All three rookies are threatening historical benchmarks. Here is a partial list of some of the single-season records these players are approaching, along with the pace they're keeping and the current standards in the record book:

Andrew Luck

Statistic

Current pace

Current record

Passing yards, rookies

4,808

4,051 (Cam Newton, CAR, 2011)

Passing touchdowns, rookies

20

26 (Peyton Manning, IND, 1998)

Robert Griffin III

Statistic

Current pace

Current record

Rushing yards, quarterbacks

940

1,039 (Michael Vick, ATL, 2006)

Doug Martin

Statistic

Current pace

Current record

Yards from scrimmage, rookies

2,078

2,212 (Eric Dickerson, L.A. Rams, 1983)

As always, statistics are only part of the story. The goal of any player is to make the playoffs, and if the season ended today, only one of these rookies (Luck) would be playing in the postseason. Indianapolis probably won't challenge Houston for the AFC South championship, but Sunday's win over Miami earned the Colts a tiebreaker advantage over another wild-card contender. And they still have games against softies like Jacksonville, Buffalo, Tennessee and Kansas City on their slate.

In the NFC, Martin's Buccaneers are 4-4 and just a half-game out of the postseason, with a mix of easy games (Carolina, New Orleans, St. Louis) and hard ones (Denver, two against Atlanta) remaining. Washington, meanwhile, has the third-worst record in the NFC and will fall to second worst if New Orleans beats Philadelphia on Monday night.

If Luck and the Colts make the playoffs, the offensive rookie of the year award will probably be his. If something goes wrong in Indianapolis, Martin looks like the safest bet to take the lead. It's funny to say after his great game in Week 1, but Griffin looks like the longshot of the three.

There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

On the play, Griffin flipped the ball to receiver Josh Morgan on a reverse to the right and then ran out of the backfield on a pass route. Morgan eluded a defender and heaved the ball downfield to Griffin along the left sideline.

Ryan Clark gave him a nice hit at the end of the play. As a defensive fan, that's exactly what I like to see happen to QBs. I think they should eliminate the "can't touch him if he slides feet-first rule". That's for wimps and this is tackle football. Let the defensive players hit the ball carrier!!

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Trader Joe For This Useful Post:

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

He wasn't sliding. You need to actually click the link and read, lol... He was sent out on a deep out route as a receiver. RG3 --- as a receiver. With Josh Morgan throwing a deep bomb to him. Yet another 'Skin gimmick. He tried to make a play on the ball, and the defenders came in and made a clean hit on him, but he got lit up. Again, just a stupid playcall, and I see it way too often with RG3. The jumping over 3 players and helicoptering into the ground play was pretty ugly, too. That's just a poor decision on behalf of Bob.

Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 11-06-2012 at 03:27 PM.

There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Allowing defensive players to hit sliding QBs is pretty much the worst idea I have heard so far in November.

Allowing offensive players to slide instead of get tackled (or even the old-fashioned wimpy play of stepping out of bounds right before the hit) is one of the worst things to ever happen to tackle football.

Don't want to get tackled? Play flag football instead.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

He wasn't sliding. You need to actually click the link and read, lol... He was sent out on a deep out route as a receiver. RG3 --- as a receiver. With Josh Morgan throwing a deep bomb to him. Yet another 'Skin gimmick. He tried to make a play on the ball, and the defenders came in and made a clean hit on him, but he got lit up. Again, just a stupid playcall, and I see it way too often with RG3. The jumping over 3 players and helicoptering into the ground play was pretty ugly, too. That's just a poor decision on behalf of Bob.

I'm not sure he made a play on or for the ball. He committed one of the most obvious OPI calls I've ever seen. Professional receivers know how to commit OPI and disguise it. Even Kordell Stewart could do that! RGII is clearly not an NFL-caliber reciever, at least not yet, merely on his inability to disguise OPI.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

I'm not sure he made a play on or for the ball. He committed one of the most obvious OPI calls I've ever seen. Professional receivers know how to commit OPI and disguise it. Even Kordell Stewart could do that! RGII is clearly not an NFL-caliber reciever, at least not yet, merely on his inability to disguise OPI.

Oh I'm not doubting that RG3 committed an egregious offensive pass interference foul. My point was, how ridiculous it was he was even out receiving a deep pass. Of course the Steelers lit his *** up.

There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

He wasn't sliding. You need to actually click the link and read, lol... He was sent out on a deep out route as a receiver. RG3 --- as a receiver. With Josh Morgan throwing a deep bomb to him. Yet another 'Skin gimmick. He tried to make a play on the ball, and the defenders came in and made a clean hit on him, but he got lit up. Again, just a stupid playcall, and I see it way too often with RG3. The jumping over 3 players and helicoptering into the ground play was pretty ugly, too. That's just a poor decision on behalf of Bob.

Ryan Clark gave him a nice hit at the end of the play. As a defensive fan, that's exactly what I like to see happen to QBs. I think they should eliminate the "can't touch him if he slides feet-first rule". That's for wimps and this is tackle football. Let the defensive players hit the ball carrier!!

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Ryan Clark gave him a nice hit at the end of the play. As a defensive fan, that's exactly what I like to see happen to QBs. I think they should eliminate the "can't touch him if he slides feet-first rule". That's for wimps and this is tackle football. Let the defensive players hit the ball carrier!!

Yeah, but you're talking about hitting them when they are making normal quarterback plays. It was absolutely idiotic for the Redskins to put him in that position.

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Allowing offensive players to slide instead of get tackled (or even the old-fashioned wimpy play of stepping out of bounds right before the hit) is one of the worst things to ever happen to tackle football.

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

What's important in the Luck vs RG3 debate right now, especially for Colts fans, is that there IS a debate with several games as evidence. Some posters' feelings to the contrary but the fact is Luck has kept his name in the discussion for ROY with his play on the field.

Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, that’s teamwork."

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

Yeah, but you're talking about hitting them when they are making normal quarterback plays. It was absolutely idiotic for the Redskins to put him in that position.

Agree. But if they're dumb enough do that, it isn't my problem and the defense should be salivating over the chance to put a clean hit on gut that usually gets to wear a red jersey. What's especially stupid is that they tried this against a secondary that wasn't assembled because of their ability to be quick or for tight coverage, but for their ability to lay big hits on ball carriers. At the very least, they should have saved that play for a quicker, softer secondary.

The worst thing he could have done was actually catch the ball in the field of play. He would have been crushed.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

The Following User Says Thank You to ChicagoJ For This Useful Post:

Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

So this debate will flip flop all year for most in the sports world, I think it will basically come down to who is hottest when the ROY ballets go out. Right now I give the edge to Luck in the ROY race, way better record, playing on a team with 20+ million locked up in cap, and leading the rookie class in yds, attempts and touchdowns. But a big performance from RG3 next week and a bad one by Luck and the views by most will switch in an instant.