>> Saturday, October 27, 2007

After several days of much-needed rain, we are seeing the return of sunshine to the Carolinas today. Along with that sun comes warmer high temperatures today with readings in the low to mid 70s.

The weather will stay pretty quiet through the next 5-7 days. A shot of cooler air arrives in time for Sunday with highs backing down into the upper 60s. In fact, it looks like every day next week will feature highs in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday will start of rather chilly with lows near 40 Monday morning and mid to upper 30s for Tuesday morning. We will continue to see lots of sun through most of the week.

Fall Foliage

The fall foliage season is running on a later than usual schedule this year, and there is still lots of great color to enjoy up in the North Carolina mountains. In fact, the color is just now reaching peak around the 3000' elevation. The weather up in the mountains will be great through the weekend and into much of next week with cool weather and lots of sunshine.

>> Friday, October 26, 2007

Please continue to let me know any problems you are having viewing the video. Below is the discussion I wrote on the Charlotte weather portion News 14 Carolina site.

The deep feed of tropical moisture continue to get pulled up into the Carolinas this afternoon. The result is lots of rain continuing around the area through the afternoon hours. Some heavy amounts of rain are piling up, and some flash flooding issues could arise, mainly over the eastern half of the viewing area. Temperatures will remain cool and struggle to reach the 60 degree mark in most spots.

Tonight, the axis of rain will slowly push eastward and out of most of the area. Some breaks in the clouds will likely filter in with lows in the mid 50s.

Expect a clearing sky Saturday as dry weather slowly returns to the Carolinas. Extreme eastern sections of the viewing area could see a lingering shower, but I think most of us will see dry conditions Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

The weather looks quiet and uneventful for much of next week. Highs will drop back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday, and lows will be near 40 Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Some communities could certainly dip into the upper 30s on one or both of those mornings. All days will feature lots of sun.

Another cold front will likely drop through here Thursday, cooling us down again by next Friday and next weekend.

>> Thursday, October 25, 2007

Well, it is a balancing act I am trying to figure out.....video quality versus performance. I think you will find the video quality a little better in this edition, but there are some skips in the audio for some reason. I will continue to experiment. Thanks for stopping by! Please continue to let me know your thoughts...

First of all, I am still working on the formatting and what-not of the weather videos. So, please give them a watch and let me know any problems you are having. I cut a new video later this evening.

Below are some of the pictures I took up in the North Carolina mountains earlier this week. It was cloudy with occasional light rain, so I wasn't able to get nearly as many shots of the color as I would have liked. However, there is something neat to me about being in the mountains when the weather is like that.

>> Wednesday, October 24, 2007

For a while I have wanted to do some sort of weather video where I could more easily discuss with you some of the things I am looking at in the near term and at times in the long term. So, here is the result as of now....the first edition of East's Weather Video.

Please let me know your thoughts and opinions. And please let me know any problems you might have viewing the video. This is really the first trial run of all of the software involved.

In future videos, I will probably spend more time talking about overall pattern issues, and I will probably get much more in-depth, meteorologically speaking, with what is going on with our weather. Like I said...this edition is sort of just a trial run.

All systems look like a 'go' for periods of rain and possibly some storms today. The atmosphere is very moist, and with a big upper air low over the Lower Mississippi Valley, we should have plenty of lift in the atmosphere to get rain and storms. Rain amounts remain in question, but the potential certainly looks high for some soaking rains across much of the Carolinas.

I walked outside around midnight last night, and you could just see the low level jet racing overhead. Anytime it is in the mid 70s at midnight in late October in North Carolina, you know something unusual is going on. But in this case, we will certainly take it.

A few strong to severe storms could occur today, and as I am typing this, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect over in Wake, Franklin, and Granville counties.

I am in the evening shift for the Triad today. I will blog at you later. I am working on something new I will be adding to the blog....lots of issues to try and work out, but hopefully I can get that up and running soon.....

>> Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Well, it looks like almost all modeling is now going with a rather wet scenario for us the next several days. Good!

Rain amounts are still in question, but the chances for some rain at times the next few days look very promising.

Also of note, it looks like we could see some type of wedging scenario in place by Thursday. If that occurs, many locations could remain in the 50s all day.

I had a chance to head up to the mountains yesterday. The cloud base was at about 3500 feet most of the day....you got above that elevation, and you just mainly saw clouds. However, there was some really nice color to be seen, and I will post a couple of pictures I took on the blog sometime tomorrow.

>> Sunday, October 21, 2007

Well, the computer models continue to flip-flop with their handling over the big trough now over the Rockies. Let me give you an example. Below will be a frame from the 12z GFS, the 12z European, and the 12z Canadian model runs today. The valid time is 8am Wednesday morning...

The GFS, which for several runs in a row had developed the closed upper air low in the Lower Mississippi Valley, decided on its 12z run today to develop the low MUCH farther west. So, instead of a couple of days of soaking rains, we end up with a primarily dry forecast this week.

While a flip in a run of the GFS normally wouldn't concern me, it does this time. The 12z run lines up very well with its ensembles from 12z as well, and that is concerning for our rain chances.

On the other hand, the 12z European has remain virtually unchanged from its previous runs with the closed upper air low again over the Lower Mississippi Valley, and therefore some nice rains for the Carolinas. The 12z Canadian is also in the Lower Mississippi Valley camp.

With this evening's forecast package, I have kept periods of rain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. I am not big with flip-flopping my forecasts, and since this is the idea I have been going with, I will stay the course for now. But just keep in mind that unfortunately, the forecast might have to be amended.

By the way, next weekend looks dry with temperatures close to average for the time of year.