Now would be a good time to drop Andrew Mitchell

Caveats first: I don't write this on the basis of any inside information. But bookies might consider laying odds that Andrew Mitchell will make a statement in the next 48 hours announcing that he is standing aside as Chief Whip to spend more time with his bicycle. All week his absence, and what it means, has been a favourite topic of conversation in Birmingham (a city whose satellite of Sutton Coldfield he represents as an MP, don't forget). Ask Cabinet ministers about their colleague and they shake their heads and try to say something non-commital. Beyond the inner donut of Mr Cameron's closest allies around the top table, he has no obvious support. Ask MPs and the most they can say is 'maybe it will all blow over': probe further and every one I have spoken to – even those who are well disposed to Mr Mitchell – do not see how he can credibly hang on. Ask officials and they shake their heads, wince with pain, and say 'it is difficult'.

Of course, few MPs have been here, and there are some around Mr Cameron who argue that the focus groups register little or no public awareness of Mr Mitchell and his angry moment at the gates. And there were plenty of folk in B'ham, even among those who want him out, who think the cops are an untrustworthy bunch who breached a duty of professional trust and manipulated their version of events for crude political ends. Indeed, why should a man lose his job because he lost his rag and was then shafted by the Government's public sector enemies? Mr Mitchell worked hard to change Tory perceptions on foreign aid, and was an eager convert to modernisation. Mr Cameron is not by instinct someone who cuts loyalists adrift.

The answer to the 'why dump him?' question can be found among the 300-odd Tory MPs in whose eyes Mr Mitchell is a reduced figure, and in the prospect of his position becoming a weekly source of torment for Mr Cameron at PMQs. Certainly, there are senior types who are making these points to the leadership behind the scenes. The House returns on Monday. It's just a hunch, but there's a brief lull before politics kick off again. The next couple days would be a good time to get this over with.