Saturday, February 25, 2017

The
Coppock Curve is rarely used today but according to Wikipedia the Coppock curve
or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator for long-term stock
market investors created by E.S.C. Coppock, first published in Barron's
Magazine on October 15, 1962. The indicator is designed for use on a monthly
time scale. It is the sum of a 14-month rate of change and 11-month rate of
change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average.

Coppock,
the founder of Trendex Research in San
Antonio, Texas, was
an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying
opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like
bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how
long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he
used those periods in his calculation.

A
buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from
a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design). The
indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it
doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become
established.

Coppock
designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" for the
S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is not regarded as well-suited to commodity
markets, since bottoms there are more rounded than the spike lows found in
stocks..

Strategy
- Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to
15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 was signalled
in April, 2016 at 20.54 on the index.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

As
you know – many of the broader Global stock indices are at or close to all-time
highs. We at Getting Technical conclude that any attempt to time the market is
a failed strategy. Investors who use fully invested longer term models do
better than investors who over-trade or market time. Investors who use fully
invested dominant theme models do better than investors who over-trade or
market time. Our focus will remain on the Global, TSX models and Dominant Theme
investing

At
Getting Technical our historical market studies dictate that bear markets print
a lower low within a rolling 26 to 30 week time window. The TSX timing model displayed
is based on a simple 26 week price channel..

Strategy
- Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to
15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 (23.49) was
signalled on May 27, 2016 at 20.82 on the index.

About Me

Bill has been writing a weekly business column in the Toronto Star since 1997, and was an early contributor to the former “Report on Business Television”. He has founded the Getting Technical Market Newsletter in December 1998.
Bill is also an Instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute. He is also a contributing author of the textbook for the technical analysis course offered by the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI. He is also called upon to provide training to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada’s leading brokerage firms.
In February 2010 Bill became a technical sub-advisor to Stonebrooke Asset Management Ltd. who manages the Hybrid Investment Program under the Elite Wealth Strategies program for Union Securities Ltd..
The relationship ended in Feb 2012 but over the 24 month period the Hybrid Program enjoyed five technical selections that were the subject of takeover bids namely, Gerdau Ameristeel, El Paso Corp, Biovail Corp. Viterra Inc. and ShawCor Ltd