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Saturday, February 27, 2016

The
Simorgh features a first stage built from bundling four separate
64,000-pound-thrust engines and a 30,000-pound-thrust engine as a second
stage. Although Iran has acknowledged a lift capacity of just 100
kilograms, Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based consultant and blogger on
Iran, said optimization of its current design should allow for
delivering a 700-kilogram payload into low Earth orbit. - See more at:
http://spacenews.com/israeli-missile-experts-simorgh-sets-iran-path-icbm/#sthash.qu6tEspe.dpuf

"The
Simorgh features a first stage built from bundling four separate
64,000-pound-thrust engines and a 30,000-pound-thrust engine as a second
stage. Although Iran has acknowledged a lift capacity of just 100
kilograms, Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based consultant and blogger on
Iran, said optimization of its current design should allow for
delivering a 700-kilogram payload into low Earth orbit.Simorgh
came as a surprise to Israeli and U.S. experts, who expected Iran to
increase lift capacity by adding a third stage to the liquid-fueled
Safir-2 or its solid-fueled Sejil-2 vehicles. “It came as a surprise.
There wasn’t any indication they were going in that direction,” said
Inbar."

The
Simorgh features a first stage built from bundling four separate
64,000-pound-thrust engines and a 30,000-pound-thrust engine as a second
stage. Although Iran has acknowledged a lift capacity of just 100
kilograms, Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based consultant and blogger on
Iran, said optimization of its current design should allow for
delivering a 700-kilogram payload into low Earth orbit. - See more at:
http://spacenews.com/israeli-missile-experts-simorgh-sets-iran-path-icbm/#sthash.qu6tEspe.dpuf

A few days ago, we posted an overview
of a possible upcoming Iranian satellite launch, which pointed to
launch windows being held open at the Imam Khomeini Space Launch
Center. Last week’s launch windows (which were signaled by NOTAMs
(Notice to Airmen)) expired, but new ones were issued yesterday for two
areas.

The first is OID 51, which is around Imam Khomeini Space Center and the launch pad used for the previous Safir
launches. The second is for OID 90, which covers a southeasterly path
from this launch complex—the direction a launch would take place (see
Table 1). The crew at Arms Control Wonk created a very helpful google
map of these zones here.

The rocket is reported to be on the launch pad, so it’s possible we’ll see a launch this week. I really don’t know why the NOTAM dates don’t coincide.

Manteghi says the Tolou satellite would not be launched until late August, but that there will be a test launch of the Simorgh before that, within two months of the interview (which was posted February 2.)Not carrying a satellite on the first launch attempt of a new rocket
sounds sensible, but the lack of a satellite is likely to make the
launch look yet more problematic with respect to United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, Annex B which states:

Iran is called upon not to undertake any
activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of
delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic
missile technology, until the date eight years after the JCPOA Adoption
Day or until the date on which the IAEA submits a report confirming the
Broader Conclusion, whichever is earlier.

While the Simorgh appears to be designed as a satellite
launcher, not a ballistic missile, and it appears incapable of
delivering a nuclear weapon over long ranges, it does appear to use
ballistic missile-relevant technology.

In the past, the U.N. Panel of Experts that was convened around the Security Council sanctions determined, though not unanimously, that the launch of the Rasad satellite in 2011 violated Resolution 1929,
which states that “Iran shall not undertake any activity related to
ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including
launches using ballistic missile technology.

Manteghi also said the “Imam Khomeini Launch Pad” would be
inaugurated with this first launch, which may mean this will be the
first launch from the new launch pad, which is reported to be capable of
supporting launches of larger rockets.