On June 29, British police thwarted a car bomb attack that would
have brought carnage to the streets of London just days before the
2nd anniversary of the July 7, 2005, bombings that claimed 52
lives. The car was packed with nails, gas canisters, and petrol
containers and left outside a nightclub near Piccadilly Circus.
This latest attempt to kill and maim hundreds of civilians is most
likely the work of al-Qaeda or one of its numerous British-based
affiliates. It was timed to coincide with the departure of Tony
Blair and the entrance of new Prime Minister Gordon Brown. It also
coincided with Blair's appointment as the Quartet's new Middle East
Envoy in the face of strong opposition in the Arab world.

A Test of Resolve for Gordon Brown

In the coming months, the Al-Qaeda network and its allies will
seek to test the strength and resolve of the new British
government, as well as the fledgling Prime Minister, whom they may
well see as a weaker figure than Blair. They will attempt to
intimidate both British public and the nation's political
leadership into withdrawing from Iraq and scaling down Britain's
close alliance with the United States.

It is imperative that Gordon Brown demonstrate that he will
redouble efforts to defeat Islamic terrorism both in Britain and
internationally. He must also recognize that Great Britain is in a
state of war, make a commitment to increasing British defense
spending, and be willing to project British military power on the
world stage, wherever British interests are threatened. Like Blair,
Brown will have to demonstrate his abilities as a war leader--at a
time of great threat to British and international security.

The Al-Qaeda Threat to the U.K.

In recent years, Britain has become a hornet's nest of Islamic
extremism. The domestic intelligence service MI5 is currently
investigating 30 major terror plots in the U.K. and has under
surveillance more than 1,600 individuals, who are operating as part
of 200 British-based terror networks.[1]In April, British courts
convicted an Islamic terror cell of attempting to kill thousands of
shoppers at the U.K.'s largest shopping mall, in Bluewater, Kent.
Between September 2001 and December 2006, there were 1,166
terrorism-related arrests in the U.K., with more than 400 people
charged.[2]

The scale of the problem involving young Islamic extremists in
Britain was highlighted in a major 2005 British Foreign Office/Home
Office study, "Young Muslims and Extremism." Terrorist
organizations such as al-Qaeda have found a fertile hunting ground
in the U.K., where half of Muslims are under the age of 25, and
where there is widespread opposition to the U.S.-British-led war on
terror. The report revealed that extremist groups are secretly
recruiting well-educated, affluent Muslims from British
universities, in addition to impoverished, underachieving Muslims
through mosques and prisons. Former MI5 Director General Eliza
Manningham-Buller estimates that more than 100,000 British citizens
consider the July 2005 London attacks "justified."

Al-Qaeda's strategy over the next decade will be to try to split
the U.S.--U.K. alliance, the central bulwark against its
totalitarian world vision. It will seek to raise the cost of
British support for the United States and Israel and test the
determination of the British public. More attacks on U.K. interests
in the Middle East and Africa, as well as bombing campaigns on
British soil, are likely.

Al-Qaeda will attempt to recreate the "Madrid effect" in
Britain. That strategy failed with the 2005 London bombings, partly
due to Tony Blair's strong response, but will test the resolve of
future British leaders. Al-Qaeda will also seek to foster political
tensions between London and Washington by cultivating British-based
Islamic terror cells to act against transatlantic targets. For
example, a major suicide attack on a U.S. airliner by a British
citizen or British-based terrorists, resulting in huge loss of
American life, would place a massive strain on the
relationship.

Britain as a Central Front in the War
on Terror

The attempted attack underscores that Britain remains in a state
of war, and is a central front in the global war against terrorism.
New Prime Minister Gordon Brown must demonstrate courage, resolve,
and determination in the face of a mounting threat. Indeed, his own
legacy as a British leader may be defined ultimately by his ability
to deal with the most important issue of our time-global terrorism
and its support by state sponsors such as Iran and Syria.

It is imperative that Brown not show any sign of weakness as a
leader. Domestically, he must do everything possible to deal with
the terrorist threat. Greater powers must be given to British
authorities to monitor, detain, and extradite suspected terrorists,
and the U.K. should immediately withdraw from all articles and
protocols in the European Convention on Human Rights that might act
as a barrier to effective anti-terrorism measures. Ultimately,
Britain should withdraw from the convention altogether, and
reassert national sovereignty in this critically important
area.

The U.K. must not tolerate the Islamic militancy in its midst,
which seeks to destroy British society and impose a Muslim state.
Foreign Islamic clerics who preach treason and violence should be
deported and banned from re-entering the country. Britain also
clearly needs a new generation of Muslim leaders who are untainted
by association with, or sympathy for, Islamic extremism and who are
proud of their British identity. They must be willing to condemn
terrorism unequivocally in all its forms, and help root out
extremists from Muslim communities.

On the world stage, the new British government must not allow
Al-Qaeda and its allies to dictate British foreign policy, as they
have succeeded in doing in countries such as Spain. Brown should
not agree to an artificial timetable for the withdrawal of British
forces from Iraq and must remain committed to increasing British
troop strength as part of the NATO-led operation against the
Taliban in southern Afghanistan. He must also stand up to Iranian
intimidation in Iraq and send a clear message that there are
military consequences for Iranian-backed attacks on British forces.
In addition, Gordon Brown must ensure that the maintenance of the
Anglo-American special relationship remain a top priority.

Britain's battle against terrorism must be fought on several
fronts, both at home and abroad. The war must be taken to the
enemy, including state sponsors of international terror. Britain
must fight this war in conjunction with its closest ally, the
United States, sending a clear message that the West will not be
divided in the defense of freedom.

Nile Gardiner,
Ph.D., is Director of the Margaret Thatcher Center
for Freedom, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.
Heritage interns Hannah Martone and Erin Magee assisted with
research for this paper.

[1] "The International
Terrorist Threat to the UK", Speech by the Director General of the
Security Service, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, at Queen Mary's
College, London, November 9, 2006, at http://www.mi5.gov.uk/output/Page374.html

[2] Philip
Johnston, "Terrorists Will be Put on Special Register", Daily
Telegraph, June 8, 2007.