The GOP’s Misinformation Problem in Action (II)

Bill Kristol’s advice to the GOP today is a good example of how Republicans are routinely misinformed by their own pundits:

That’s the Republicans’ situation today. They have a hand they could easily make worse by panicking, and which could be good enough for a win or draw if they keep calm. And their odds could improve if they now take a few days vigorously to make their case to the country: that they have acted to fund the government—while protecting Americans from having to buy insurance they don’t want from exchanges they can’t trust, and while reversing the special deal the Obama administration arranged for Congress so that Congress will have to live by the laws they impose on others.

To state the obvious, Republicans don’t have a “hand” good enough to win or draw. Being calm or panicking is irrelevant here. The question isn’t whether Republicans are going to lose a standoff they should never have attempted, but how quickly they can minimize the damage they are doing to themselves and to the country. Urging the GOP to “stand pat” in the hope of a “victory” that isn’t forthcoming is to encourage Republicans to maximize the harm they do to themselves and to the U.S.. It is mindless dead-ender advice that ought to be ignored, but because it flatters Republican politicians and tells them what they want to hear it will probably be taken seriously.

Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to what the Republicans have already done, a majority is opposed to what they are trying to do (i.e., defund the ACA), and disapproval of Congressional Republicans is equally overwhelming. What case could Republican leaders possibly make that would turn around public opinion when it is against them by a margin of 50-60 points? As it happens, the government hasn’t been funded, and Americans are not “protected” from the provisions of the ACA, so a case asserting that these things have been done will simply make the GOP appear more ridiculous than it is. The longer that the shutdown continues, the worse these numbers are going to get for the GOP. If Republicans “stand pat,” they are likely to be run over.

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27 Responses to The GOP’s Misinformation Problem in Action (II)

Okay, so less than two weeks ago, this character called on Israel to attack Iran. Now he advocates for the US government to remain shutdown in the near term. I guess he really is prepared for Israel to “go it alone”?

The longer that the shutdown continues, the worse these numbers are going to get for the GOP. If Republicans “stand pat,” they are likely to be run over.

Most Republicans will be just fine. The GOP received about 1.2 million fewer votes for House seats than Democrats did in 2012. But the seats Republicans have are safe nonetheless.

So the broader picture you paint is accurate, of a GOP detached from reality. But very few people in the party have the incentive to care that their strategy is nonsensical and unpopular.

They have the incentive to stay in the good graces of the infotainment complex that their primary voters depend on for their news. This generally means being perceived to be doing things that liberals don’t like.

Pres. Bush wasn’t especially conservative; but he did do things that liberals didn’t like. So he left office with around a 30% approval rating from independents, and over 80% from self-described “conservative Republicans”.

The GOP’s misinformation problem isn’t much of a problem for the people in the GOP. But it’s a terrible problem for America.

Although I shudder at the thought of agreeing even a little with the likes of Bill Kristol, it doesn’t seem to me that the remarks of Daniel about this are nearly as justifiable as his usual stuff. The House of Representatives has the Constitutional responsibility for and power of initiating all spending initiating all spending bills. Why exactly is it that they can’t just gradually go through the things that the public is really sure it wants to keep funding, and send these things one by one to the Senate? And then if the Senate doesn’t agree to fund these things, or the President vetoes these bills, it isn’t the President, the Democrats and the mainstream Republicans who are shutting down the government? The so-called extremist radicals in the House are quite obviously doing exactly what the framers of the Constitution intended. Is Daniel’s point that the press will just lie so much about this that the House Republicans won’t be able to make their case to the public?

How about this – since virtually every conservative politician out there who is pushing to defund Obamacare has also offered the opinion that the unfunded Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit should not have been passed … why does the House not send over a Budget Resolution which not only defunds Obamacare, but also defunds Medicare Part D?

After all – the ACA is actually projected (under CBO and JCT estimates) to reduce the federal debt over the next … while continuation of Medicare Part D will cost America almost a trillion dollars over the next decade.

Conservatives want to be taken seriously on this issue? Come out for defunding Medicare Part D – and not 10 years from now, but in FY 2014. Estimates are that Medicare Part D will cost us $78 billion next year … why not start there?

It gets better. Norquist is now accusing Cruz of misleading poow wittow wepublicans:

Cruz said he would deliver the votes and he didn’t deliver any Democratic votes. He pushed House Republicans into traffic and wandered away.

What’s a Republican Congressman to do, when Senator Cruz, the Canadian-born Ivy Leaguer, assures them that the Democrats in the Senate, and the President of the United States, would suddenly change their mind, ignore their own election mandate, and go along with what the Republicans in the House are demanding that they do? I mean, it makes sense, does it not? How could poor Congressmen not have believed Cruz, the mastermind.

Of course, it is all Cruz’s fault that he led the gullible, trusting, good-faithed Congressmen into this morass. No doubt abetted by George Soros and the MSM.

Why can’t Senate Democrats amend those bills to restore sequester spending levels and send them back to the House and watch as House Republicans trip over themselves to vote down their own bills?

More to the point, why do you think that these attempts to use procedure to win a PR battle will be effective? Do you think the public will be fooled? Your party is 50 points down in polling on the shutdown. You’re not going to make it up with parlor magic.

Not my party. Although O. and the Democrats are just as bad. I voted libertarian in the last two elections. I wish the Republicans could go down completely so that something different can arise from the ashes.

Something has already arisen from the ashes –some manner or representatives willing to stand forsomething.

Certainly te mindless, i.e, the press wil bemoan all the out of work, employees or that office or the parks —- they will launch into scare tactics about the economy — which if effected as many sggest is a sure sign that something is amiss, because it’s an economy funded by taxes and in a period of shrinking availabe jobs — doesn’t sound very healthy.

I am not surewhat il come of the current issue. I am of a clear mind what I would like to happen.

I am concerned that they won’t make the case I think they should make. That theywon’t point to the fact that the executive has signaled his lack of confidence in this measure as with so many others — and that alone justifies a hold.

In my mind the party has already ben against the wall since the last admin who did every they could it seems to govern as democrats — and despite September 11, I remain dumbfounded by an executive and a Congress who could cut taxes while growing the size of government — and democrats were onborad.

Given the comments about stop gapping government and economic woes —

no one should ever advance that deficits don’t matter as to the economy. Because it clear that those deficits – credit card debts — wil come due eventually,and the interests along with them.

Sure we’re soluable as long as no one has the courage to attempt a collection . . . but perhaps they would prefer that we become as they are —

“As it happens, the government hasn’t been funded, and Americans are not “protected” from the provisions of the ACA, so a case asserting that these things have been done will simply make the GOP appear more ridiculous than it is. The longer that the shutdown continues, the worse these numbers are going to get for the GOP. If Republicans “stand pat,” they are likely to be run over.”

This is what I don’t understand. If the Republicans stand pat and refuse to pass the funding bill the President demands, but continue to pass funding bills for everything not dealing with Obamacare, the outcome will be that the President will accept the funding Republicans offer because getting that money will be better for him than not getting any money at all. The public opinion polls at present are irrelevant. This matter will be resolved long before the next elections. And the only way Republicans will be seen as foolish and lose voters is if they don’t get substantial concessions from the President. In the meantime, it is the President who has to manage a government he is refusing Republican offers to fund.

“They have the incentive to stay in the good graces of the infotainment complex that their primary voters depend on for their news. This generally means being perceived to be doing things that liberals don’t like.”

I think it really is that simple regarding the safe district caucus. Gerrymandering has a silver lining. It shows us exactly where these folks are.

Dude, do you get out of the echo chamber much. This issue will be resolved by October 17. Period.

That said, the best strategy at this point is to fold the current talks into the debt ceiling talks and try to get budget cuts in exchange for leaving Obamacare alone. Besides, the obsession by certain conservatives over Obamacare is ridiculous. Heck, it’s even modeled after a plan proposed by the Heritage Foundation.

The GOP had the Presidency from 2001 to 2008, and had ample opportunity to devise a plan that would move us away from the outdated employer-provided health-insurance system. And even now, they haven’t proffered any viable alternative to Obamacare except keeping the broken system that we currently have.

The GOP doesn’t seem to understand that ideas can’t stand alone. To become meaningful, ideas have to be embodied into institutions whose functioning reflects those values. Therefore, it isn’t enough to toss out ideas. You have to do the hard work of building institutions that embody the ideas. For liberals, that institution is always the same: the central government. So, conservatives need to think more carefully about strategies for fostering local institutions that can serve certain collective ends.

For conservative ideas to take root, people have to be civically engaged at a local level. And we have to foster local institutions that can mediate such civic engagement. Until we can do this, we will keep losing out to those for whom central authority is the answer for everything.

It is not enough to kill the beast. We have to propose alternative local institutions that are attractive and to which people will be drawn. In other words, we have to have a vision of what a “conservative” society would look like. I’m guessing it should look a lot like Switzerland. But, from we stand today, conservatives have no vision. We’re like a guy who shows up for a tennis match with a ping-pong paddle. He may put forth a valiant effort, but he’s going to lose. And in so doing, lends even greater credibility to the beast.

Until we can articulate a tangible vision of what conservatism looks like (and do so in a way that is not religiously sectarian), we will keep getting kicked around.

William Dalton, I think I see why your comments on this issue have seemed non-sensical. The ACA doesn’t need an appropriations bill right now. So, the House can’t get what a minority of the majority wants by sending bills that fund one agency at a time. Instead, when funding the Department of the Interior — to pick one — they have to attach a rider that amends the ACA. That’s the kind of bill that they can’t get passed — the Senate sends it back with ACA stuff deleted, and the House has to decide whether to fund the Department of the Interior or not. So far, the House is going with not. We’ll see how long they keep that up.

There’s no reason for the Senate or the President to accept a rider that’s not germane to the particular appropriations bills: they can wait until the House minority (is it really 50 or 60 members driving this thing?) gets tired of it. Or the Speaker gets tired of catering to a minority of his caucus.

I’m starting to believe that Bill Kristol and the like do have an endgame in mind, and that endgame is impeaching Obama.

Here’s how “the hand” plays out in his mind. The GOP keeps the government closed for 3 weeks AND doesn’t move on the debt ceiling. On October 17th Obama makes a “Full Faith and Credit, I’m paying the bills anyway” statement, and Tea Party Congressmen start writing up articles of Impeachment. At this point, the theory goes, it will not matter if the Impeachment is even successful. The mere threat of it will hurt Obama in the public’s eye and drag him enough into the mud that he will fold on something to get out of it.

Now, I don’t think this plan will work any more than the “Make Obama blink before a government shutdown” plan, but it’s important to note what they have in mind. They aren’t just holding out to hold out, they are gearing up for a bigger battle.

“Here’s how “the hand” plays out in his mind. The GOP keeps the government closed for 3 weeks AND doesn’t move on the debt ceiling. On October 17th Obama makes a “Full Faith and Credit, I’m paying the bills anyway” statement, and Tea Party Congressmen start writing up articles of Impeachment.”
Well this seems a bit weak anyway as Obama can just instruct the fed to print as much money as it takes to pay the bills. Sure this would lead to rampant inflation but it would be the GOPs fault for refusing to negotiate… At some point this blame game BS has to stop and it’s unfortunately going to have to start with the GOP.

“At this point, the theory goes, it will not matter if the Impeachment is even successful. The mere threat of it will hurt Obama in the public’s eye and drag him enough into the mud that he will fold on something to get out of it.”

Which is the opposite of what happened with Bill Clinton, so this makes perfect sense from the perspective of someone like Kristol, who has never been right about anything in his life.

I think the “we are doing this so we can impeach Obama” line of thinking is certainly in play, and I would hope that it will be the end of all these idiots….

@Bobby, I consider myself a liberal, but I like your line of thought as outlined above. Most of my desire for “central control” is driven by concerns for the rights of citizens in the Old Confederacy, when I get right down to it. If there is a way to sort that out, I think local control is preferable in almost every way.