Discover Financial, FedEx, Oracle, Alcoa and Goldman Sachs are part of Zacks
Earnings Preview:
PR Newswire
CHICAGO, June 19, 2013
CHICAGO, June 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --Zacks.com releases the list of
companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week's list includes
Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS-Free Report), FedEx (NYSE:FDX-Free Report),
Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL-Free Report), Alcoa (NYSE:AA-Free Report) and Goldman
Sachs (NYSE:GS-Free Report).
(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20101027/ZIRLOGO)
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Looking Ahead to Q2 Earnings Season (revised)
We are issuing this revised version of Earnings Preview to address a mistake:
earlier, we had mentioned that from Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS-Free Report)
was to have reported earnings yesterday after the bell; the company has not
reported and will not report earnings this week.
Q2 earnings season will actually get underway this week with the earning
release from such bellwethers as FedEx (NYSE:FDX-Free Report) on Wednesday and
Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL-Free Report)on Thursday.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA-Free Report) typically gets credited for kicking off each
earnings season, but we don't count Alcoa's report as the 'official' start. In
fairness to Alcoa, investors start taking notice of the earnings season only
with their release, which for Q2 will happen on July 8th.
As has been the case at the start of recent quarterly earnings cycles,
expectations for Q2 earnings season remain quite low. Total earnings for
companies in the S&P 500 are expected to be up only +0.6% from the same period
last year. This is down from +3.9% growth expected in the quarter in early
April. Total earnings were up +2.3% in Q1, but the expectation ahead of the
start of the Q1 earnings season was for earnings growth to be in the negative
territory.
Finance wasn't a big driver of aggregate earnings growth for the S&P 500 in
Q1, but takes back the lead role in Q2, with total earnings for the sector
expected to be up +19.4% and estimates steadily going up. Earnings for the
sector were up +7.7% in Q1, which came after many quarters of double-digit
growth.
All industries within the Finance sector like the major banks, regional banks,
brokers and insurers are expected to have positive growth. But the growth
picture is particularly notable for the brokerage and investment management
industry such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS-Free Report), with total earnings for
the group expected to be up +39.6% in Q2 after the +2.6% gain in Q1.
Unlike Finance, the earnings picture for the Technology sector, the largest
sector in the S&P 500, remains fairly weak. Total earnings for the sector are
expected to be down -8.7% from the same period last year, which follows the
-3.8% earnings decline in Q1.
Earnings estimates for the sector have been steadily coming down over recent
weeks, with the current -8.7% decline down from expected decline of -3.1% in
mid-April. The weakest group within the Technology sector is the PC makers,
with total earnings for the Computers and Office Equipment industry expected
to be down -16.1% in Q2 after the -14.1% decline in Q1. Semiconductors and
electronics are other Tech industries with negative earnings growth in the
quarter.
About the Zacks Rank
Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are
the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1
Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of +28%. During the
2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500
tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong
Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since
1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have significantly underperformed the S&P 500 (+3%
versus +10%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage
portfolio trading effectively.
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