The multiannual financial framework is a minimum of 5 years and we're currently midway through the 2014-2020 framework....And I'm the dull one here?

No you're right, it's linked to existing commitments and our share of liabilities (pensions, buildings and the like). We committed to it at the start of the funding cycle and we re-committed to it when we agreed the payment methodology with the EU earlier in the negotiations. It's always been that this was completely unrelated to a future deal, although the EU have softened their position on this and by agreeing to pay what we owe it seems a guarantee of a deal *may* now be a possibility.

We don't though. Why is it Brexiteers ALWAYS ignore the benefits that the membership brings, they only concentrate on the costs and the negatives. E.g. an estimated £60-80bn benefit to businesses from EU trade in goods/services, ~3 million jobs liked to that trade, etc., etc.

And why do remainers always make out that if we leave all that will come to grinding halt. It won’t. Stop being silly.

"ll probably have to keep repeating myself but the only way we will know for sure if Brexit is good or bad is with hindsight and, the only way to know if remain would have been better is to remain."

Just about the stupidest thing to say ever. Whats the point in forecasting anything? Whats the point in having a strategy? Whats the point in having a plan?

When you accept another job, do you care to review the new salary, holiday hours, working hours and company Ts&Cs? Do you ask yourself before accepting if you'll be in anyway better off than before?

The Government have made forecasts (as it does so every year when setting budgets) on how much borrowing would increase for each Brexit scenario. They don't see any scenario where it decreases because there is no reason to assume that it would when all is considered. Its out there if you care to look. Or you could just dismiss it out of hand as the Government (voted to deliver brexit) being somehow biased towards remain.

Stupidest thing to say? Can you see the future then? Ignoring that I was talking about a probably biased opinion from someone not of Europe or the Uk, if you want to mention government forecasts then how many forecasts are accurate? Only with hindsight do we know. That last paragraph is slightly bizarre, government budgets are set, then re-appraised and re-set continually, borrowing is revised regularly because you know, forcasts aren't accurate and your last sentence, well, the majority of people in the government are remain voters and Hammond has been slapped down twice by May for poorly judged comments. May is a well known remainer who at least is trying to honour the majority wish to leave.

To use your analogy, it would be like leaving mid season because you didn't like the style of football, and then avoiding paying any upcoming installments even though you opted at the start of the season for a structured payment plan.

Come on guys, this isn't complicated.

[Post edited 17 Sep 2018 14:21]

Absolute nonsense. We are not legally obligated to pay a single penny.

Why are we coughing up ? Because we have a weak government, that’s why.

Absolute nonsense. We are not legally obligated to pay a single penny.

Why are we coughing up ? Because we have a weak government, that’s why.

We’re coughing up because we committed to it, so if we walk away we’d probably face a legal challenge from the EU we’re ill equipped to win. And they’d probably tell us to go swivel next time we asked for something. And we hold relatively few cards as we’re the ones leaving, so it gives us at least a lttle bit of leverage in the future relationship discussions.

Yes we have a weak government- they’ve been awful. No arguments there.

We’re coughing up because we committed to it, so if we walk away we’d probably face a legal challenge from the EU we’re ill equipped to win. And they’d probably tell us to go swivel next time we asked for something. And we hold relatively few cards as we’re the ones leaving, so it gives us at least a lttle bit of leverage in the future relationship discussions.

Yes we have a weak government- they’ve been awful. No arguments there.

There is no legal obligation to pay the eu a single penny. This is a fact. So how the hell could the eu take the U.K. to court when there is no legal obligation ? Can you explain that ?

As for holding few cards, you watch to much bbc etc.

eu countries are desperate not to lose British trade, just last week the Spanish tourism industry was panicking over less British holidaying in Spain.

Millions of jobs are at stake in the eu, so if the eu wants to cut its nose off to spite its face, that’s fine with me, as the result will be a lot more pi$$ed off eu citizens blaming the eu for their jobs losses etc.

There is no legal obligation to pay the eu a single penny. This is a fact. So how the hell could the eu take the U.K. to court when there is no legal obligation ? Can you explain that ?

As for holding few cards, you watch to much bbc etc.

eu countries are desperate not to lose British trade, just last week the Spanish tourism industry was panicking over less British holidaying in Spain.

Millions of jobs are at stake in the eu, so if the eu wants to cut its nose off to spite its face, that’s fine with me, as the result will be a lot more pi$$ed off eu citizens blaming the eu for their jobs losses etc.

There is no legal obligation to pay the eu a single penny. This is a fact. So how the hell could the eu take the U.K. to court when there is no legal obligation ? Can you explain that ?

As for holding few cards, you watch to much bbc etc.

eu countries are desperate not to lose British trade, just last week the Spanish tourism industry was panicking over less British holidaying in Spain.

Millions of jobs are at stake in the eu, so if the eu wants to cut its nose off to spite its face, that’s fine with me, as the result will be a lot more pi$$ed off eu citizens blaming the eu for their jobs losses etc.

Of course there's a legal obligation you fool. The UK entered into contractual agreements that have to be honoured and will no doubt be honoured. Who pays for Farage's EU pension for example?

There is no legal obligation to pay the eu a single penny. This is a fact. So how the hell could the eu take the U.K. to court when there is no legal obligation ? Can you explain that ?

As for holding few cards, you watch to much bbc etc.

eu countries are desperate not to lose British trade, just last week the Spanish tourism industry was panicking over less British holidaying in Spain.

Millions of jobs are at stake in the eu, so if the eu wants to cut its nose off to spite its face, that’s fine with me, as the result will be a lot more pi$$ed off eu citizens blaming the eu for their jobs losses etc.

We're a full member of the EU up until March 2019, and still operating within it until the end of the 2020 where the end of the transition coincides with the end of the multi annual financial framework which we signed up to in 2014.

By all means, F**k them off and don't, but what will that do to our future prospects of ever striking up a deal with the EU in future, or the rest of the world in which we'll be desperate to cut deals with?

We're a full member of the EU up until March 2019, and still operating within it until the end of the 2020 where the end of the transition coincides with the end of the multi annual financial framework which we signed up to in 2014.

By all means, F**k them off and don't, but what will that do to our future prospects of ever striking up a deal with the EU in future, or the rest of the world in which we'll be desperate to cut deals with?

Let’s not kid ourselves, the real reason the eu don’t want to negotiate in faith is because they are absolutely terrified of a successful independent U.K. as it will have a domino effect on other countries who will say “look at the U.K. they are doing well since they left the Eu, we should do the same”.

So the alternative is to offer a bad deal, which will mean lots of eu citizens losing their jobs. It’s the eu who are in a very difficult situation, much worse than what the U.K. is in.

Let’s not kid ourselves, the real reason the eu don’t want to negotiate in faith is because they are absolutely terrified of a successful independent U.K. as it will have a domino effect on other countries who will say “look at the U.K. they are doing well since they left the Eu, we should do the same”.

So the alternative is to offer a bad deal, which will mean lots of eu citizens losing their jobs. It’s the eu who are in a very difficult situation, much worse than what the U.K. is in.

They need to protect the integrity of the single market and customs union. You can dress it up which ever way you want, there's no way we'll be able to retain all the benefits of our current members whilst being a 3rd Country. European industries have already come out and said they back Barnier in these discussions, from their point of view, damaging the future of the single market if the EU gives us everything we want and risk the domino effect, is far far worse to them than if UK left without a deal.

There's absolutely nothing stopping us going for a Canada style agreement, but we will lose the benefits of the customs union which will raise non-tariff barriers to trade and it doesn't solve the Irish border issue. There will also be lengthy negotiations on what goods falls under the free trade along with quotas. The french might not want too much UK cheese exports for instance.

They need to protect the integrity of the single market and customs union. You can dress it up which ever way you want, there's no way we'll be able to retain all the benefits of our current members whilst being a 3rd Country. European industries have already come out and said they back Barnier in these discussions, from their point of view, damaging the future of the single market if the EU gives us everything we want and risk the domino effect, is far far worse to them than if UK left without a deal.

There's absolutely nothing stopping us going for a Canada style agreement, but we will lose the benefits of the customs union which will raise non-tariff barriers to trade and it doesn't solve the Irish border issue. There will also be lengthy negotiations on what goods falls under the free trade along with quotas. The french might not want too much UK cheese exports for instance.

[Post edited 18 Sep 2018 10:16]

I don't think the majority expected to retain all the benefits. Some of those benefits are disputable anyway, another thing we won't know until long after we've left is just how much the UK benefits from EU membership. One thing is for certain, Euro industries may support Barnier but they are also very worried about what "no deal" will bring them,

I don't think the majority expected to retain all the benefits. Some of those benefits are disputable anyway, another thing we won't know until long after we've left is just how much the UK benefits from EU membership. One thing is for certain, Euro industries may support Barnier but they are also very worried about what "no deal" will bring them,

So a hard line negotiation and an apparent unified front may just be hiding a degree of desperation. Or is it true that the EU would rather protect itself than do what's best for European citizens?

Of course EU industries are very worried about Brexit. No one comes out of this unscathed. The statement below from the German car manufacturing lobby say they want negotiations to be conducted quickly and constructively, but cohesion of the EU is the prerequisite.

They recognize that they're industry will be harmed by Brexit, but the potential domino effect that Peenemunde mentioned would harm them a lot more. I agree with you though, they are very worried.

They need to protect the integrity of the single market and customs union. You can dress it up which ever way you want, there's no way we'll be able to retain all the benefits of our current members whilst being a 3rd Country. European industries have already come out and said they back Barnier in these discussions, from their point of view, damaging the future of the single market if the EU gives us everything we want and risk the domino effect, is far far worse to them than if UK left without a deal.

There's absolutely nothing stopping us going for a Canada style agreement, but we will lose the benefits of the customs union which will raise non-tariff barriers to trade and it doesn't solve the Irish border issue. There will also be lengthy negotiations on what goods falls under the free trade along with quotas. The french might not want too much UK cheese exports for instance.

[Post edited 18 Sep 2018 10:16]

Whatever tariffs the eu wish to impose on the U.K., we match in return. Win, win for the British, as we import for from them as they import from us.

As for Ireland, the technology already exists - so that issue is just a red herring.

Of course EU industries are very worried about Brexit. No one comes out of this unscathed. The statement below from the German car manufacturing lobby say they want negotiations to be conducted quickly and constructively, but cohesion of the EU is the prerequisite.

They recognize that they're industry will be harmed by Brexit, but the potential domino effect that Peenemunde mentioned would harm them a lot more. I agree with you though, they are very worried.

Brexiteers (in general, maybe not you in particular) constantly complain about they EU apparently bullying us, what are they not offering that you think they should?

[Post edited 18 Sep 2018 11:32]

The EU did try a few threats but I thnk they stopped doing that when it appeared to be pushing us towards a no deal,that of course being a disaster for both parties. It's still possible but neither side wants it. It's not so much what they are offering but what they have demanded, such as if we want a trade deal we have to accept free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, we can't negotiate new trade deals until after we officially left and that Northern Ireland should remain in the single market. They drew their red lines and wouldn't shift but expected us to cave in on everything. It was only when our government grew a set and argued back that negotiations really started moving. If we'd grown a set earlier, or had them from the start things might be much closer to the finish line now. Then of course, they allegedly refused us some things that they give to other countries in their bespoke deals. I saw an article about it but can't remember exactly what is said and to be honest, there is so much to trawl through, so many lies, so many counter arguments and opinions it makes my head spin.

I did read recently the EU was considering a free trade deal with Africa. Their dealings with Africa are prtectionist and cause many problems,

So my ideal would be if the EU was fairer to Africa too, it's not all about them and us, there are other places that need better deals and/or help too. I guess that tells a story, what I really want is the EU to completely reform, if it did I would happily change my vote. Choosing leave wasn't just about us. The whole world needs a shake up, we have Trump and his trade wars, Russia and state sponsored terrorism and now threatening Israel, China flexing it's muscles. Honestly, politicians need to grow the feck up and stop treating the world like some giant game of risk!! There is enough for all of us.

The EU did try a few threats but I thnk they stopped doing that when it appeared to be pushing us towards a no deal,that of course being a disaster for both parties. It's still possible but neither side wants it. It's not so much what they are offering but what they have demanded, such as if we want a trade deal we have to accept free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, we can't negotiate new trade deals until after we officially left and that Northern Ireland should remain in the single market. They drew their red lines and wouldn't shift but expected us to cave in on everything. It was only when our government grew a set and argued back that negotiations really started moving. If we'd grown a set earlier, or had them from the start things might be much closer to the finish line now. Then of course, they allegedly refused us some things that they give to other countries in their bespoke deals. I saw an article about it but can't remember exactly what is said and to be honest, there is so much to trawl through, so many lies, so many counter arguments and opinions it makes my head spin.

I did read recently the EU was considering a free trade deal with Africa. Their dealings with Africa are prtectionist and cause many problems,

So my ideal would be if the EU was fairer to Africa too, it's not all about them and us, there are other places that need better deals and/or help too. I guess that tells a story, what I really want is the EU to completely reform, if it did I would happily change my vote. Choosing leave wasn't just about us. The whole world needs a shake up, we have Trump and his trade wars, Russia and state sponsored terrorism and now threatening Israel, China flexing it's muscles. Honestly, politicians need to grow the feck up and stop treating the world like some giant game of risk!! There is enough for all of us.

You haven't given me a single example of how they're bullying us.

They're insistence on the 4 freedoms is the result of us wanting full access to their single market and to stay in their customs union so we can avoid a border in Ireland. If they back down from this they risk Peenemunds domino's.

There is no legal obligation to pay the eu a single penny. This is a fact. So how the hell could the eu take the U.K. to court when there is no legal obligation ? Can you explain that ?

As for holding few cards, you watch to much bbc etc.

eu countries are desperate not to lose British trade, just last week the Spanish tourism industry was panicking over less British holidaying in Spain.

Millions of jobs are at stake in the eu, so if the eu wants to cut its nose off to spite its face, that’s fine with me, as the result will be a lot more pi$$ed off eu citizens blaming the eu for their jobs losses etc.

1) It's not a fact at all. It would have to be tested by the courts. It's as boring as feck but this blog outlines why we *may* still be held to honour our commitments. https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-brexit-bill-and-the-law-of-treaties/. I don't pretend to understand the half of it, but it's very clear that there doubt around the Lords' comments about not having to pay, which were made in March 2017 (and which, I suspect, is where you've got this idea from as it was jumped on by the leave camp and is still trotted out today).

We are now trying to backtrack and use it for leverage to get a deal. Why are we doing this if we hold so many wonderful cards? I don't know the answer to that, but suspect it's because we can't find anything better to use as leverage.

1) It's not a fact at all. It would have to be tested by the courts. It's as boring as feck but this blog outlines why we *may* still be held to honour our commitments. https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-brexit-bill-and-the-law-of-treaties/. I don't pretend to understand the half of it, but it's very clear that there doubt around the Lords' comments about not having to pay, which were made in March 2017 (and which, I suspect, is where you've got this idea from as it was jumped on by the leave camp and is still trotted out today).

We are now trying to backtrack and use it for leverage to get a deal. Why are we doing this if we hold so many wonderful cards? I don't know the answer to that, but suspect it's because we can't find anything better to use as leverage.

You need to keep up. We don’t have to pay a single penny. Also what about the money the eu will owe the U.K. ? Don’t hear you mentioning that.