The Rise of China

Maybe all of this is part of why the news cycle has now gone so quiet. Large Japanese exporters probably don't like their surging Chinese gravy train disappearing over some unoccupied isolated rocks. $$$ talks. This one looks like an economic (at least for the near-term) loser for Japan.

Seems to me that Japan had very little control over the "news cycle" of this controversy. The Japanese government only purchased the islands in a (failed) attempt to avoid this type of controversy... it was seen as preferable to allowing Tokyo's sinophobic mayor to acquire them. At that point the controversy was pretty much out of their hands, all they could do was sit back and let the rage in China play it's course.

There has been a lot of speculation that the outrage in China was encouraged and manufactured as a distraction while the Communist Party sorted through some internal issues. It's possible that Chinese authorities simply saw no further need for the controversy to continue, and simply allowed it to die.

Of course one wonders if they accounted for the longer-term consequences of stoking such hatreds. If Chinese public distaste for Japanese brands continues, and Japan is forced to cut back on investments and manufacturing in China, it could hurt China just as much as Japan.

Oh I wasn't trying to suggest anyone had control over the news cycle in this story. Only that Japan decided that because of the economic damage being caused by all the news that was flying around internationally, that it would be in their best economic interests to back away from this whole dispute--at least for now.

I'm not overly concerned that this will produce long-term "Chinese public distaste for Japanese brands". Didn't the story linked a few posts ago already state that the Japanese mfg plants in China were already getting back into production albeit at a lower level than had existed before the shit hit the fan.

edit: Meant to add that when I was in town a few days ago, the papers covering the Chinese character for 'Japan' on the sushi restaurants have been removed. Looks like things are returning to normal here.

I'm not overly concerned that this will produce long-term "Chinese public distaste for Japanese brands". Didn't the story linked a few posts ago already state that the Japanese mfg plants in China were already getting back into production albeit at a lower level than had existed before the shit hit the fan.

Yeah, a projected production decrease of 70% is not exactly a minor blip.

I'm not overly concerned that this will produce long-term "Chinese public distaste for Japanese brands". Didn't the story linked a few posts ago already state that the Japanese mfg plants in China were already getting back into production albeit at a lower level than had existed before the shit hit the fan.

Yeah, a projected production decrease of 70% is not exactly a minor blip.

But that is because of lost orders. I imagine it will begin to build back up. Yes, they took a big hit. Thus, the Japanese .gov decided this wasn't a good fight, or at least, now was not the best time to push this particular agenda. It would be far more concerning if the factories weren't reopening at all. That they are tells us that the market is not dead--just damaged.

Only that Japan decided that because of the economic damage being caused by all the news that was flying around internationally, that it would be in their best economic interests to back away from this whole dispute--at least for now.

Da Xiang wrote:

Thus, the Japanese .gov decided this wasn't a good fight, or at least, now was not the best time to push this particular agenda.

I guess I'm just not sure what you think Japan would be doing if not for their economic concerns.

Japan has exercised sovereignty over the islands for more than a century, they don't have to do anything. They don't have to say anything, they don't have to press the issue. Their preferred outcome is simply the maintenance of the status quo.

Only that Japan decided that because of the economic damage being caused by all the news that was flying around internationally, that it would be in their best economic interests to back away from this whole dispute--at least for now.

Da Xiang wrote:

Thus, the Japanese .gov decided this wasn't a good fight, or at least, now was not the best time to push this particular agenda.

I guess I'm just not sure what you think Japan would be doing if not for their economic concerns.

Japan has exercised sovereignty over the islands for more than a century, they don't have to do anything. They don't have to say anything, they don't have to press the issue. Their preferred outcome is simply the maintenance of the status quo.

Except of course for those approximately 30 years when the U.S. controlled them....

Well, there were those incidents with water cannons. I'm guessing someone made a conscious decision to abate that over the risk of further economic damage.

What will be more interesting is to see if Taiwan or China try to push the issue with Japan apparently trying to back off. At the moment it looks more like all parties are backing off to the prior status quo.

Only that Japan decided that because of the economic damage being caused by all the news that was flying around internationally, that it would be in their best economic interests to back away from this whole dispute--at least for now.

Da Xiang wrote:

Thus, the Japanese .gov decided this wasn't a good fight, or at least, now was not the best time to push this particular agenda.

I guess I'm just not sure what you think Japan would be doing if not for their economic concerns.

Japan has exercised sovereignty over the islands for more than a century, they don't have to do anything. They don't have to say anything, they don't have to press the issue. Their preferred outcome is simply the maintenance of the status quo.

Except of course for those approximately 30 years when the U.S. controlled them....

Well, there were those incidents with water cannons. I'm guessing someone made a conscious decision to abate that over the risk of further economic damage.

What will be more interesting is to see if Taiwan or China try to push the issue with Japan apparently trying to back off. At the moment it looks more like all parties are backing off to the prior status quo.

What exactly is it that you're seeing to make you think Japan is backing off? Have there been more Chinese ships approaching the islands in the last week or two? I certainly haven't heard anything about it on Japanese news, and that'd absolutely be top-story material out here.

It does seem like the black-van crazies have been out in force lately, though.

Only that Japan decided that because of the economic damage being caused by all the news that was flying around internationally, that it would be in their best economic interests to back away from this whole dispute--at least for now.

Da Xiang wrote:

Thus, the Japanese .gov decided this wasn't a good fight, or at least, now was not the best time to push this particular agenda.

I guess I'm just not sure what you think Japan would be doing if not for their economic concerns.

Japan has exercised sovereignty over the islands for more than a century, they don't have to do anything. They don't have to say anything, they don't have to press the issue. Their preferred outcome is simply the maintenance of the status quo.

Except of course for those approximately 30 years when the U.S. controlled them....

Well, there were those incidents with water cannons. I'm guessing someone made a conscious decision to abate that over the risk of further economic damage.

What will be more interesting is to see if Taiwan or China try to push the issue with Japan apparently trying to back off. At the moment it looks more like all parties are backing off to the prior status quo.

What exactly is it that you're seeing to make you think Japan is backing off? Have there been more Chinese ships approaching the islands in the last week or two? I certainly haven't heard anything about it on Japanese news, and that'd absolutely be top-story material out here.

It does seem like the black-van crazies have been out in force lately, though.

It appears that all have backed off from the recent crazy. I only focused on Japan as a result of the info of the economic damage suffered over the recent flair up. I can't say why China and Taiwan also seem to have backed off on the rhetoric. It has been said that China decided to use this as a distraction from some embarrassing internal political struggles. Perhaps very successfully as those stories seem to have gone quiet for the moment as well.

I just got back from Shanghai. For the most part, things seem to be pretty normal. I went out to dinner with my Japanese colleagues there, and everyone quite happily spoke Japanese, with no (apparent) concern about being attacked. Bear in mind that there are ~60,000 Japanese living in Shanghai.

However, I was told about some aggro from a taxi driver in Beijing, when he found out that his passenger was Japanese.

My Chinese colleagues didn't appear to be stressed at all, despite working for a Japanese company, working with Japanese colleagues, etc. Of course, I didn't raise the subject with them........

I think for the most part, Shanghai was spared from the same level of rioting and protests that we've all seen on the news. Mind you this is in downtown Shanghai (where I live) so it could be much much different in the outskirts of the city; although, I don't remember seeing rioting and protests in Shanghai on the local news, but even that fact has to taken with a grain of salt since the reporting can be quite selective.. I did hear air raid sirens for the first time in my life (outside the History Channel) so that was quite an interesting experience.

FWIW, the hair salon located on the same street as my housing complex still has a PRC flag covering the katakana portion of the store name. Also the FamilyMart convenience stores (Japanese brand) that I regularly visit have miniature PRC flags stickied on the sliding glass doors. It does seems to be business as usual though.

Sorry for the earlier link and run. At first glance, this appears to be a response to the recent announcement of possible joint US-Japan drills simulating re-taking a remote island occupied by belligerent forces.

It sounds like while things have been on the back burner for a few weeks, nobody's actually backed away from the issue completely.

Yeah, this is pure fodder for the black-van crazies. Speaking of which, have you been seeing them out more often over there in Osaka? They've been out in droves lately on this side of the island.

Not so much, thank god. Japanese politicians pandering to, and most people's passive tolerance of, the Uyoku is one of the things that most bugs me about this country.

I have mixed feelings about our charismatic mayor; he's young & seems to be pretty dynamic (unlike most Japanese politicians, who should belong in a nursing home), but he does have some pretty distasteful views (e.g. about South Korean 'comfort women').

Don't underestimate fish either. While the Chinese are busy buying up endangered species parts for their penises, it's the Japanese that are fishing the seas to extinction.

Actually, the Chinese are making some pretty major power plays in the Pacific. Every distant water fishing nation has seen their allotment of tuna in the Western Pacific cut. Every nation except China. I don't have the numbers at hand, but from memory it was a pretty significant haircut for everyone else.

Don't underestimate fish either. While the Chinese are busy buying up endangered species parts for their penises, it's the Japanese that are fishing the seas to extinction.

Actually, the Chinese are making some pretty major power plays in the Pacific. Every distant water fishing nation has seen their allotment of tuna in the Western Pacific cut. Every nation except China. I don't have the numbers at hand, but from memory it was a pretty significant haircut for everyone else.

At this point it doesn't really matter. Natural, wild tuna is on the fast track to extinction. They are a predatory, long lived fish, and stocks caught now are predominately young. The adults are just not surviving long enough to reproduce. Enjoy mercury laced tuna while ye can.

Too bad then that the effects of those crimes can and do transfer to the children of the victims of said crime. Why should symmetry not be maintained by transferring the criminal's guilt to his children?

The effects of slavery have been transmitted down generations. The effects of the Holocaust have been transmitted down generations. The effect of Colonialism have been transmitted down generation. Certain people profited of these situations and if the profits benefited the children of those people, then those profits should be reclaimed. Perhaps with interest. How much? However much is practicable. After all, aren't pieces of art looted by Nazis returned without recompense to their 'illegitimate' owners? Illegitimate owners who possibly didn't personally steal anything personally.

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and no one should be forced to take responsibility for shit that couldn't possibly have been within their ability to influence.

So.... we shouldn't have gone to war in Afghanistan? Precision drone strikes only? Never mind the fact that even these precision strikes aren't really all that precise.

In fact, with a lack of collective responsibility, no nations should ever go to war. A nice fiction, but fiction nonetheless.

Seriously what the hell is China trying to do here? Do they really want the nationalist in Japan to take power in sundays elections? Do they want Japan to re-militarize? Is it simple hubris, or is something else going on?

Abe isn't a 'new' PM, he's held the post before back in 07. He was known as a major hawk at the time, and like most politicians he went pragmatic once he got into office. I don't see many Japanese political analysts expecting him to do any differently this time around.

I'd almost expect a Japanese re-armament campaign to begin based purely around a desire for economic stimulus. Abe is very pro-easing, wanting more domestic spending and reducing the strength of the yen. Blowing a bunch of money on weapons systems might be just what he wants. Whether it's a good idea or not is a totally different story.

"It's the economy, stupid" is one major component of the LDP's win last weekend. (The other one is that voters hate the DPJ.) I don't expect the new administration to do much saber-rattling on the foreign policy front, although if the LDP can stay in power long enough—there's another election coming up early next summer, this time for the upper house, and nothing daring is likely to take place before then—they may try to give Japan a more concrete physical presence on the Senkakus.

LDP politicians cleaned up in the election, but they aren't particularly popular, and to their credit they know that. Every interview I've seen this week with one of the party leaders has included statements along "we didn't win, the Democrats lost, and we need to work to win public trust" lines. I wrote this thing about an hour ago on the ridiculously low popular support the LDP had in the election, given the outcome; that sort of situation is going to prevent the party from being "hawkish" or "militaristic" or whatever adjectives the idiots in the foreign press are whipping out to describe the electorate's disappointed rejection of ineffective DPJ rule.

@ NervousEnergy: I don't expect domestic arms purchases to ramp up so much as I think the new government will move quickly to relax restrictions on arms exports. The LDP wants Mitsubishi et al. to start selling pricy military hardware overseas.

I'd almost expect a Japanese re-armament campaign to begin based purely around a desire for economic stimulus.

My understanding is that there has been a fairly mainstream movement to normalize Japan's defense policy for a long time. Hard to say how that plays with the recent escalation in tensions. On one hand it may strengthen the hand of the hawks, but it will also make more cautious those who were open to the idea of change but might view doing it now as too provocative.

Among many reasons for change, part of the issue (as I understand it) is that Japan's pacifist constitution and "Self-Defense Force" military doesn't allow them to participate in international affairs along with the rest of the world. For the longest time the couldn't even participate in UN-sanctioned peacekeeping activities, and only recently have they relaxed things such that non-combat support units can be deployed for humanitarian purposes.

Japan punches well below it's weight in international affairs, given that it's the third largest economy in the world.

"These three countries are engines for growth of the world economy," chief government spokesman Yoshihide Suga told reporters Thursday. He deflected suggestions that Tokyo was seeking to counterbalance China.

"I don't view respecting relations with the rest of Asia as a countermeasure against China," he said.

Really? From Hideyoshi to Hirohito Japan has been trying to fight against China. Now they are trying to patch up their relationship with every Asian country but China and they are saying that it is not against China?