Article Archive For Keyword:
Arthur A Merrill

Advance-decline divergence as an oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Advance-decline divergence as an oscillator
by Arthur A. Merrill
Which indicators signaled the crash last October? One that had been shouting a warning was A-D
Divergence. This is one of our most venerable indicators. The Advance-Decline Divergence Osci

Chi Squared by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Chi Squared
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Just how meaningful are statistics? Arthur Merrill explains how to find out.
If records show that market behavior exhibited more rises than declines at a certain time in the past,
could it have been by chance? Y

Closing Arms by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Closing Arms
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The Arms index has been verified, deified, and even modified, certainly within the pages of STOCKS &
COMMODITIES. Now the index is examined again, this time by noted veteran technician Arthur Merrill, to
find ou

Closing Tick by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Closing Tick
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Buyers' market or sellers' market? Counting the upticks and downticks can give you a clue, Merrill says.
Are buyers reaching for stock? Do they have to bid a price higher than the last price given (an uptick)?
O

Consensus indicators by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Consensus indicators
by Arthur A. Merrill
There are scores of indicators and, at the same moment, some present an optimistic picture of the
future while others are predicting trouble. Which indicator should be watched most carefully? When two
indicators

Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The Options Clearing Corporation issues a weekly report to subscribers that lists the totals of options bought and sold on all exchanges nationwide. The transactions are segregated by customer, marke

Fitting a Trendline by Least Squares by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Fitting A Trendline By Least Squares
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Usually, trendlines are drawn through tops or bottoms. They are also drawn through the center of
prices by a lagged moving average or by eye (Figure 1). A straight line through the center

Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Fitting a trendline by least squares
by Arthur A. Merrill
Trendlines usually are drawn through tops or bottoms. They also are drawn through the center of prices
by a lagged moving average or by eye (Figure 1). A straight line through the center of a pri

How Important Is A Turning Point? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How Important Is A Turning Point?
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
So, naturalists observe a flea
Hath smaller fleas that on him prey
And these have smaller still to bite 'em;
And so proceed ad infinitum.
--Jonathan Swift
So goes the market. Waves withi

Introductions by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Introductions
by Arthur A. Merrill
Stocks tend to fly together, rising in bull markets and declining in bear markets. For this reason,
analysts have been searching many years for indicators of the future of the overall stock market.
It isn't easy to fi

Logarithmic Point & Figure by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Logarithmic Point & Figure
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
In the June 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I described how a turning point could be measured by
filtering out minor market moves. The same filtering technique can be used to correct the failings of the

Member Trading by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Member Trading
by Arthur A. Merrill
Once a week, but two weeks late, the New York and American stock exchanges report some
interesting figures. You will find them in Barron's or The Wall Street Journal :
Total volume and total short sales;
Specialist

Member and public short selling by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Member and public short selling
by Arthur A. Merrill
Total short sales figures, published by the New York and American stock exchanges, are a useful set of
figures for gauging market moods. Total short sales figures are reported in The Wall Street Journ

Member/Odd Lot Trading by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Member/Odd Lot Trading by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
Stock exchange members, the group that makes up the member trading statistics, should be more knowledgeable than the rest of us, the great ""public."" The members should be smart money -- at least, they sh

Merrill Directional Patterns by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Merrill Directional Patterns
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Can we get clues to price performance from the swings of prices in the last hours of the preceding day?
If we ignore volume and the amount of change, the direction of the swings of prices can be

Merrill MW Waves by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Merrill MW Waves
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Suppose prices have been moving in a certain way. What are the probabilities for future prices? You
must look to the past for similar situations.
How similar must the past situation be? If you ask your comp

More trend detection by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...More trend detection
by Arthur A. Merill
Last month I described four methods of trend detection: eyeball, filtered waves, zigzags and
support/resistance levels. Here are seven more:
Moving average
This indicator is rather limited when you consider the

Moving Average Crossovers by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving Average Crossovers
by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
Are moving average crossovers more effective than other indicators? More specifically, how about
moving average crossovers applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average? S&C contributor Arthur
Merrill de

New highs/new lows by Arthur A. Merrill, C. M. T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...New highs/new lows by Arthur A. Merrill, C. M. T.
Each day the number of stocks making new highs and the number making new lows are reported in the financial press. Are these statistics useful? To find out whether they were, I constructed an index of ne

Plurality by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Plurality by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Plurality: Now there's an indicator that has been around for at least half a century. Analyst James Alphier claims it was invented by technical analyst pioneer Paul Dysart, who published a piece on the subject at l

Price/Dividends Ratio Revisited by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Price/Dividends Ratio Revisited by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
In 1988 Merrill showed that the price/dividends ratio was useful in calling the 1987 crash. What's the outlook today?
In the October 1988 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I described the useful

Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Here's a look at an old fundamental analysis favorite and what it can do for the technical analyst.
For many years I have monitored the performance of a group of 30 to 50 stocks that have been
exhibiti

Reading indicator charts by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Reading indicator charts
by Arthur A. Merrill
In the preceding column, I discussed the smoothing of indicator data. When you have tamed the wild
fluctuations, how do you translate the result into a forecast? How do you read the chart?
There are several

Resistance by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Resistance by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Prices, like everything else move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline and vice versa.
--Edw

Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
In 1983 I noted an indicator developed by analyst Stan Weinstein: the last hour indicator. Changes in prices in the last hour seemed to be useful in forecasting the future. Having an hourly data bank extend

Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
If the owner of a large block wants to sell without generating a big price decline, he sometimes enlists the help of an underwriter. This type of sale is called a secondary offering. The underwriter uses his skills

Short Interest by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Short Interest
by Arthur A. Merrill
Short interest ? the sale of borrowed stock ? is one of the most useful tools of the technician. Short
sales are made by pessimists, who expect prices to fall. If prices fall, the short seller can buy shares at a
lowe

Sidebar: Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:10 (86): Sidebar: Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill
Trendlines usually are drawn through tops or bottoms. They also are drawn through the center of prices by a lagged moving average or by eye. A straigh

Stock Selection by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stock Selection
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
How does a veteran technician like Arthur Merrill select stocks for investment? He explains that it's not
the simplest of methods and it does require research and work, but the results, he notes, are worth it

Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
The percentage of stocks above their moving averages has been tracked for a number of years by Investor's Intelligence, a weekly report that includes the number of New York Stock Exchange issues abo

Swing Expectations by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Swing Expectations
by Arthur A. Merrill
Market moves are plagued by the ""noise"" of short-term vibrations. I've found it useful to clean up the
moves by using a simple 5% filter for the market averages and a 10% filter for individual stocks. All
swings

Taming the indicators by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Taming the indicators
by Arthur A. Merrill
An indicator is often difficult to read because of its wild fluctuations. It may appear optimistic and
then dive into bearish territory. Then it might reverse again and turn bullish. Frustrating!
A wild indica

Testing Indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Testing Indicators
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Analysts consult scores of indicators to get clues for the future. At any given instant, however, some of
the indicators are bullish and some are bearish. They are never unanimous. Which should we believe?

The 28% Rule by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The 28% Rule
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
A bear market is interrupted by rallies, which cheer the spirits but are then followed by a resumption of
the bear market. Finally, one of the rallies turns out to be the first upswing of a new bull market, and

The Elapsed Time Calculator by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Elapsed Time Calculator
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Veteran technician Arthur Merrill explains how to derive the number of days, actual or calendar,
between two dates using a simple table and some elementary steps.
Do you need to know the number o

The Presidential Election Cycle by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Presidential Election Cycle
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
It's an election year again. What does history say about them ? This famous technician tells you that
what you've heard about Presidential election years may very well be true.
An election ye

The Summer Rally: Fact Or Fiction? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Summer Rally: Fact Or Fiction?
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The ""summer rally"" appears in some years and is completely absent in others. Does it deserve its
name? I've consulted the record back to 1885 and find that there is a good case for a bull

The Wall Street Week index by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Wall Street Week index
by Arthur A. Merrill
Every six months I have been checking the accuracy of more than 40 indicators over a span of several
years. On the last test, the indicator that came out on top was the Wall Street Week Technical Market
In

Time Of Daily High And Low by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Time Of Daily High And Low
by Arthur A. Merill, C.M.T.
Does the time of the high for the day and the time of the low give a clue to the performance of the
market on the next day?
For example, suppose that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) high po

Volatility by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Volatility
by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Does the degree of volatility in the stock market give us any clue to the future of the market? I tested
day-to-day volatility and found that it does have a good forecasting record.
I took the percent change of t

Volume indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Volume indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The activity of the market, its volume, has long been of interest to investors and traders. I have a copy of the first book on stock market technique, ABC of Stock Speculation, written by S. A. Nelson in 19

Watch the Fed! by Arthur A. Merrill

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Watch the Fed!
by Arthur A. Merrill
The actions of the Federal Reserve are vitally important to investors and speculators. When the Fed
tightens the money supply, interest rates rise, bonds and stocks fall. The reverse occurs when the Fed
eases the supp

Weekly McClellan Oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Weekly McClellan Oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
In the September 1989 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Richard Mogey described and interpreted the McClellan Oscillator. It's based on daily data. My data bank has been developed