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Friday, October 30, 2009

The Skins are mercifully off, and I honestly feel great about this. Not indifferent because I sadly still care, and not frustrated because I am missing something (I'm not), but calm and accepting that I do not have to build up my hope for another miserable Sunday afternoon. I have been in the acceptance phase of this season for a few weeks now, and I actually laughed out loud at the Skins 3 times on Monday night, most notably when Rabach snapped the ball off of his own leg. My biggest concern this weekend? That the actual good football will make me realize just how terrible it is to sit through a Skins game this year. You know what my solution is? Take a Redskin vacation. Don't let them screw up your gambling, fantasy team, emotions, or anything. This is a hard step for us, and the front-office issues detailed by the WaPo's Sally Jenkins isn't helping, but I am tuning it out. Lavar Arrington was talking about his addiction to soda on 106.7 today, and you know what? Although I was depressed listening to that idiocy, at least I didn't have to hear him beat a dead horse. Yes, the Skins suck and this season is a waste; done and done. I'll admit that I am curious how much candy Fat Albert will eat on Halloween, and what awesomeoness Chris Cooley will do on Saturday night, but you know what, ignorance is bliss my friends.

With the Skins off, my picks should improve, as they are 2-5 against the spread and have single-handedly dropped my % correct by 1.5%. That said, I will keep this brief to obey my rule of taking a vacation from the Skins, so on to the picks...............the Football Outsiders (FO) came back to earth after a few hot weeks, going 6-6 in week 7. I still trust their system more than my own picks, so am generally taking their picks and only differing where I feel strongly. FO's 'locks of the week' are now 2-2 with only 1 'lock' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 11-16, and their 'stay away' picks are 35-36.

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS).

Jacksonville +3 over TENNESSEE - So I get the better team and the points. FO has the Jags as their #8 straight-up pick, but I think their system is not fully comprehending that Vince Young is starting and is a train-wreck; he is a downgrade over Kerry Collins and I can't wait to see this suckfest. VY might have a Jamarcus Russell-esque day. Too soon for a VY suicide costume?

Cleveland +14 over CHICAGO - I am not at all impressed with Chicago, but can't take Cleveland seriously. Derek Anderson has been the 2nd worst QB in the league, ahead of only you-know-who, according to FO.

Oakland +17 over SAN DIEGO - This is so many points, but I am sticking my my never pick Jamarcus Russell theory, which I'm pretty sure has served me well thusfar. A Jamarcus Russell costume where you carry a football you inaccurately chuck all over the place is almost too easy.

PHILADELPHIA +1 over New York Giants - FO likes the Iggles straight-up, but their system consistently overrates the Eagles (they don't know why), so I'll take the the team I think is 2nd best in the NFC. Do you think Eli has a really dumb Halloween costume, like dracula or do you think he is part of a good group costume and gets way more credit than he should when his individual costume is really simple? See what I did there?

GREEN BAY -3 over Minnesota - Emotion is the bane of gambling, but hard to think that emotion won't have a big part in this game. FO rates the Packer D as the best in the league, and as a better team than the Vikings. I also think the extra emotion will be on the Packer side. I hope we get this game in DC, but am a little concerned all the half-Viking, half-Packer jerseys will make me nauseous. If you have a Brett Favre costume, it better be really clever, otherwise I'd just want to punch you in the face; maybe a geriatric Favre with walker and hunchback still trying to play?

BUFFALO +3.5 over Houston - FO has the Bills has a slight favorite straight-up, but I think Houston is a much better team, regardless of the FO rankings.

Seattle +10 over DALLAS - I think the Cowgirls shot their load a bit last week, and I still think Seattle could not totally suck. I think my hatred of Dallas is clouding me from having a good costume idea, but I know there is some potential here.

St. Louis +4 over DETROIT - Detroit has been the worst team in the league according to FO, but in what will be a sloppy game, who knows, so take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS -13 over San Francisco - Peyton and co. are just steamrolling everyone. My man crush, Mike Singletary, has the power of Jesus on his side, but I think that won't be enough. The 49ers are overachievers, but the talent disparity will be too great here.

BALTIMORE -3 over Denver - FO likes Baltimore straight-up here, and coming off the bye-week, at home, I'll stick with them. Should be a close game either way though, so those 3 points are enticing.

Miami +3.5 over NEW YORK JETS - I like this pick a lot. I am completely off of the Jets bandwagon, although FO has them as a slight straight-up favorite over the Dolphins.

Carolina +10 over ARIZONA - The Cards are picking it up, and Delhomme seems like the type of QB (read: shitty) that their D feasts upon. Some costume with Kurt Warner's deal with the devil or Jesus could work for me.

Atlanta +10 over NEW ORLEANS - A good team getting 10 points here is crazy, but the Saints have been that good. After last week, the slipped in the FO rankings to the #2 offense (behind the Colts), and the #5 defense, after being #1 and #2 previously. Has anybody else noticed the Matt Ryan shaving commercial (Gilette maybe?) where he walks out of the shower area shirtless, but in dress pants? Drives me crazy, who would do interviews like that? Are they implying Matty-Ice shaves his baby smooth chest?

Maybe after 7 weeks staring at a steaming pile of shit, Skins fans should take this weekend much like the players will, relaxing. Don't even watch other games, just relax and don't think about the Skins. You'll thank me for this idea later.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Maybe it's early to be reviewing pre-season expectations, but so what? We're now 11 games into the season; why did we wait for the 11th game to write this post? Because we love Mike Gartner, that's why. Move along.

10) Can Mike Green put his disastrous playoffs behind him and duplicate the regular season success he had last year?

Green has shown flashes of that Norris Trophy form early this season, and his performance on Long Island last weekend is plenty of reason to be optimistic. He sits at 11 points (2G, 9A) with a +6 rating; through 11 games in 2008-09 he had 8 points (4G, 4A) with a +1 rating. One reason why his goals are down is because he has put 12 fewer shots on goal this season compared to last. But I digress: more points, better plus minus? We'll take it.

9) Will Michael Nylander's contract prove ruinous?

Well, at least the Caps haven't lost any other players to waivers since L'affaire Bourque (C-Bo, by the way, has yet to register a point in three games with Pittsburgh). But Nylander's still on the team's books, and despite his current conditioning stint with Grand Rapids of the AHL, No. 92 still needs to convince some KHL honcho that he's worth their investment. Until that happens, think of Nylander like a buddy of yours from college who moves to town without a job. You offer him your couch and he just sits there, taking up roughly 10 percent of your living space. On the rare occasion he does leave the apartment, he leaves all his crap behind, meaning you still don't have room for that fancy new IKEA media center you've needed for months. Until the guy finds a job, you and your crappy TV stand are stuck with each other.

8) Will the penalty kill take a leap forward?

So the Caps haven't found a way to stop the Philadelphia Flyers power play yet, but as far as the rest of the league is concerned, the penalty killers have been better, currently operating at an 81.5 percent success rate. They finished 2008-09 at 80.6. That's without resident penalty killer Boyd Gordon for the past five games, to boot.

7) Will Bruce Boudreau actually find line combos that work and stick with them?

The 8-19-28 line is clearly something special, but when they have an off night, there isn't enough secondary scoring on most nights to overcome their lack of production. When they're having an "on" night, watch out. In short, Boudreau hasn't changed from last season, not that we're complaining.

6) Can Alex Semin stay healthy for a full 82-game season?

No, not at all.

5) Will a healthy Chris Clark actually be a good Chris Clark?

The Captain looked every bit the Chris Clark of Old through the first five games of the year, but has been less and less noticeable ever since, despite registering his first goal of the season last Thursday in Atlanta. Boudreau's been giving No. 17 about 10 minutes of ice per game thus far, and has even thrown him out on the second power play unit (where he has registered an assist) with some regularity. Yes, he has been the victim of almost-constant line shuffling, which is what happens when you skate on the third and fourth lines, but his minus-4 rating simply has to improve if Clark wants more ice time.

4) If Alex Ovechkin gets hurt and misses time...what then?

Not going there...

3) How will the Capitals make up for the veteran leadership that Sergei Fedorov provided?

"Leadership," in the Fedorovian sense of the word, hasn't been an issue through 11 games. What the Capitals do miss most about No. 91 is his ability to win key power play draws. Too often, the Capitals waste 15-20 seconds of power play time because Nicklas Backstrom (40.5 percent) or Brooks Laich (50.7 percent) can't win the draw. Fedorov's 56.2 percent success rate from last season would be the best on the team among regular draw-takers not named Steckel or Gordon.

2) Will Alex Ovechkin evolve into a more complete player?

Honestly, it's way too early to tell, and when the guy's leading the league in goals and is second overall in points, does it really matter? For the record, Ovechkin has eight assists through 11 games, compared to five last year and seven the year before. Don't change a thing, Ovie.

1) Can Bruce Boudreau motivate his players to play hard every night?

Sure, the Capitals are just four points behind league-leading Pittsburgh atop the standings, but of the 11 games this season, how many 60-minute efforts have we seen? We'll define "60 Minute Effort" as a game in which the Capitals were tied or ahead entering the third period, and did not allow more than a single goal en route to recording a regulation victory (shootout wins don't count). 3 out of 11: at Boston, vs. San Jose and vs. Philadelphia.

As Red Rover wrote, the Capitals are winning on talent more than effort right now. That's fine in October and, honestly, as long as the team stays healthy, it should carry them to another Southeast Division title. But as we learned last spring, talent alone will not win you the Stanley Cup.

Bonus: Are there other burning questions that need to be answered through 11 games?

There are, but the biggest one was answered (for now) Tuesday night: Jose Theodore.

We have a long season ahead of us, but I am having trouble containing my woody after watching the Wiz beatup a 50-win team from last year, on the road no less! With the team undergoing so many changes from last season, there were a lot of questions going into this opener, but I think we already have a few answers. It is never too early to pass judgment, so I will go through my list of 10 burning questions and see where we already stand.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

Agent Zero is back, and close to fully healthy. The only reservation I have after one game is that he did this against a geriatric defender in Jason Kidd and a midget in JJ Barea. His burst looked pretty good, and more importantly, his passing and distribution looked great. Gil is clearly going to play at an all-star level, but how great he plays will determine how far we go.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

As stated, his distribution and passing were great, indicating that he has become a more true PG. Floor leadership will only be a small part of the battle though and the off-the-court leadership will be hard to determine for a while.

7) Can Caron Butler fit in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Still not sure on this one. Tough Juice had a 'quiet' 16-8 while shooting 6-17. I kept looking for the offense to run through him whenever Agent Zero was on the bench, but it seems that Flip is set on having his guards initiate. Despite the change in offense, if a few more shots had fallen for Caron, he would have been over his averages from a year ago of 20.8 ppg and 6.2 rpg.

6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?

Both had great games, with Miller extremely efficient and fitting in nicely with his teammates. Foye was a pleasant surprise, shooting 8-14 and finishing with 19 points. I wouldn't fire up the Foye bandwagon just yet though, as he had a hot shooting night and only managed 1 assist in 30 minutes despite doing a lot of ball handling.Yes, Foye was good, but I don't think he'll be this good in every game. Miller, however, can clearly be the glue guy that this team desperately needs.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

Flip seems to already have his 8-man rotation set, with Arenas, Miller, Butler, Haywood, Blatche, Foye, Stevenson, and Oberto soaking up all but 3 minutes of PT. It is unclear what will happen when Jamison returns - will this be a 9-man rotation, or will Oberto sit? I like that Oberto brought some grit amongst our offensive talent, so would like to see him in the rotation when Jamison is back.

As assumed, Mike James, Javaris Crittendon, Dominic McGuire, and Javale McGee saw limited or no action. The big surprise here was DCLS friend Nick Young (aka Young Sushi), who did not leave the bench after averaging over 22 minutes a game last season. I expected Young Sushi to get 10-15 mins per game and split or even take the role being played by Deshawn Stevenson. I spoke with Nick on Sunday night and he didn't mention any health issues or problems going into Dallas, so this looks like Flip's decision. I was not impressed with Stevenson though, and would like to see Young Sushi get a shot given that he has some upside.

4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

With Mike James' expiring contract and a collection of young talent riding the pine last night, it appears that the Wiz definitely have pieces of value they would be willing to deal. Maybe Grunfeld wants to hold onto some of the young guys, but last night should only give ammunition to any trade rumors.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

So far so good.......bang head on wood....

2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The only one given a chance last night was Blatche, and he was great. On athletic talent alone, he could average 16-7 with 30+ minutes (after an efficient 20-7 last night). I also thought he moved well off the ball, which, combined with his athleticism, will make for a lot of easy buckets. Once Jamison returns, his minutes will drop, but he should be playing ahead of Oberto.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I think I undershot this with a 45-win prediction. I heard Mark Cuban on 106.7 yesterday say that he thinks the Wiz can win 50 games this year. Well, after beating Cuban's 50-win team convincingly, I think he's right. The game at Atlanta on Friday night will be a big indicator about the race for the 4th spot in the East.

This article (h/t Olmsteazy), via NHL Fanhouse, is worth a read. An excerpt:

When Steve Downie was checked by Fedor Tyutin and we became entangled along the boards, Downie's leg whipped around and his skate blade cut my nose off. There was a hole in my face. I was on all fours and was bleeding badly. I thought I had lost my eye. Other than that, I don't remember much about the immediate impact of the skate hitting my face...

...Jim Ramsey, the Rangers trainer, came on the ice and got me. He put a towel over my eyes. I could not see a thing from all the blood. 'Rammer' brought me to the Flyers' trainers. Their doctors sewed my nose back on. It took more than 40 stitches. The doctors were alarmed because my left eye was drooping. They told me I could not go back on the ice because I could die. My face was fractured. That was when I realized this was more than just a brutal cut.

Should offer a lot of perspective on the dangers both players and officials face at the rink. These guys are iron tough.

Although it still won't stop me from booing the zebras every chance I get.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Tricked ya! The Redskins don't win games anymore. This post's title refers to professionally operated franchises in DC, namely the Capitals and Wizards, who beat the Philadelphia Flyers and Dallas Mavericks, respectively, on Tuesday. Two wins for DC in the same day? The last time that happened, fat guys were stealing lunch money from Dan Snyder, instead of the other way around.

The Caps played a solid game for nearly 60 minutes, which has happened only 4 times by my count in 11 games so far. Ovechkin's late empty-netter sealed the 4-2 win, and Backstrom led the way with 1 G, 3A. The Caps are now 7-2-2, off to their best start in 14 years, and haven't even played their best hockey yet. Winning games with overwhelming talent...imagine that.

Good signs included: Semin back and healthy, whipping a filthy wrister over Emery's shoulder for the GWG. Team defense locking it down in the final minutes. Theodore playing outstanding, with 39 saves on the evening. Ovechkin destroying Mike Richards along the boards in the second period.

Meanwhile, out Texas way, the Wiz looked damn good for 48 minutes in handling the Mavericks 102-91. Flip Saunders relied heavily on an 8-man rotation featuring a lot of Gilbert (29 Points, 9 assists), who appears to be a man on a mission. The thought of a determined and focused Agent Zero has me absolutely giddy.

It's early, and rationality is not my strongest suit, but the way these two teams are looking, and being led by their respective stars, we just might have a veeeerrry interesting spring on our hands. Please, dear sporting gods, let this not be a tease.

That was the date when Agent-0 injured his knee in a first-quarter collision with Gerald Wallace. With that knee went the Wizards chances of being anything more than 1st round cannon fodder for the elite teams in the Eastern Conference.

2 years, 6 months, 3 weeks, 2 days.

Ever since that fateful night, the Wizards have been stuck in mediocorty. You can do worse than a core of Tough Juice and Antwan Jamison, but they alone will never be enough to take a team further than the 1st round of the playoffs. If a team isn't gunning for a title or rebuilding, then what exactly is there to pique our interest? We needed Gil, and we still need him.

This is not just any season opener for the Wizards, this is a return to relevance. I would not say that I feel excitement as much as relief that Agent Zero, and the Wizards, are back.

With opening tipoff about 24 hours away in Dallas, here are the 10 burning questions for the Wizards this season.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

The answer is looking like "yes". By all accounts, the knee is back to what it was and the bigger issue is looking like rust and adapting to a new role. I hate to put a lot of stock in the preseason, and a knee injury for a guy whose game revolves around quickness is particularly concerning, but it looks like we still have a superstar on our hands. Maybe the better question now is whether Gil will be able to become a more valuable player and carry this team beyond the first round of the playoffs, which is something he could not do before the injuries. As much I'd like to talk about X-factors and other improvements, this team will only go as far as Agent Zero will take it.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

We may never learn the answer to this question. Stopping his blog and avoiding the media look like steps in the right direction, but what he does behind the scenes will be what matters. I would like to say that Gil should be himself while taking a leadership role, but look at the best leaders around the league: Lebron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, and D-Wade, all of those guys have achieved a level of maturity that Agent Zero has not. Lebron looks like he was at the same point last year as Gil is this year. Lebron still has a playful side, but clearly made the decision to be the leader of that team, which comes with being the dominant player on a team.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

This Wizards group will likely always be offense first, but tightening-up the defense could be the difference between another first-round playoff exit, and having some hope of going deep in the playoffs. Arenas, Jamison, and Butler are great offensive talents who have never been great defenders, so Saunders is fighting an uphill battle and surely realizes that this group is best suited to playing a fast-paced system. I realize that if Rip Hamilton became an okay defender in Detroit, then there is hope for everyone, but that was while surrounded by great defenders on a slow-paced team. The Wizards have one guy and one guy only who is a great NBA defender: Brendan Haywood. You want to know the difference between winning 19 games last year and 43 in 07-08? Brendan Haywood. He has quietly been one of the better defensive players in the NBA for awhile, and partly covered for the deficiencies of the big name players on this team. With Deshawn Stevenson losing playing time, Saunders' job will begin with Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the starting SG spot eventually be determined by Mike Miller, Randy Foye, or Young Sushi becoming a good defensive player.

7) Can Caron Butler fit-in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Gil is making every effort to be more of a pure PG by passing more often, which should help him integrate back into the team, but who knows what will happen once the regular season starts and the competitive juices get going. Would it shock anyone to see Gil go back to being a shoot-first guy once he feels confident in his knee? Meanwhile, Butler will have to take a slight step back to a co-starring role regardless of what Arenas does. Tough Juice was better when the offense ran through him, so his effectiveness may be diminished. The awesomeness of his nickname, however, remains intact.

6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?

(Image courtesy of reclinergm.com)

I posted about this when the trade happened, but clearly these two improve the Wizards. The question is how much do they improve the Wizards, and is that improvement worth the price we paid? The issue for me is that this trade moved the Wizards upside from 2nd round of the playoffs to.....the Eastern Conference finals? With the Big Three signed to big deals, rebuilding would have been difficult to achieve, but if you are going for a championship, swing for the fences, don't settle for hitting a double. Vince Carter was had for a similar/lesser package, and T-Mac would have been available for less. Do either of those guys make me excited? No, but at least the upside of the team with another all-star would have given us some kind of hope to win a championship. I just think this move wasn't enough.

Let's see, lots of depth, established players likely to be underutilized in a short rotation, young players, one veteran with an expiring contract, obvious holes in the front court and at SG............this sounds like a team in need of a trade. Except, we just made one, so what gives? The big trade brought depth to our deepest position, which begs the question of whether this was the first of more than one trade. The team sorely lacks front-court grit and still lacks the upside to compete with the Celtics, Cavs, and Magic, so should be looking to make a move. If we could somehow package Foye, Miller, and something else into a star SG, then this trade would make a lot more sense. Grunfeld's history shows that he is great at turning around teams, but not great at getting them to make the final step to championship contender. I can assure everyone that I will be mercilessly pounding the refresh key on hoopshype rumors, hoping that a big move is coming.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

That picture is definitely worth 1,000 words, and with Jamison already out for 10 games or more, the answer already appears to be "no". The team is the deepest it has been in recent memory, but the four guys who have to stay healthy are Agent Zero, Tough Juice, Jamison, and Haywood. Everyone else is relatively replaceable, but those four need to stay on the floor, something they have never accomplished for a full season. If Jamison missing 10-15 games is the worst of our injuries, then we will be in for a great season.

2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The Wizards have spent the offseason adding veterans to compete immediately, but this has come at the expense of developing our young players. Some of the honus is on the players, but the biggest problem this year will be playing time. Fortunately for Javale McGee and Andray Blatche, almost all of the offseason additions were in the backcourt, so those two are guaranteed at least some playing time in the rotation. McGee, however, does not appear to be a favorite of Saunders, and may only be a bit player this season. Javaris Crittenton and Dominic McGuire are not in the rotation right now either. The one guy who has made a leap forward and claimed some playing time is DCLS friend and favorite, Young Sushi. Coming into the offseason, it looked like he had zero chance to beat-out either Foye or Stevenson to earn almost any PT. Well, Young Sushi became a different player this offseason and in addition to making us look smart and outgrowing his new nickname, has forced Saunders to include him in the rotation. In the meantime, regardless of how much they play, enjoy the personalities of Epic Vale and Young Sushi, who have together taken the mantle of best personality from Agent Zero.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I've said it already, but the ceiling for this team currently looks like the 2nd round of the playoffs. I think the Magic will win our division, which leaves us battling for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. With the Cavs, Celtics, and Magic looking head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, getting the 5th seed or better is crucial if the Wiz are to have a chance of getting out of the 1st round. Chicago, Philly, and Atlanta will compete with us, but I think we can get a top-5 seed. Vegas has our over/under at 41.5 wins, and as the 8th most likely team to win the East, both of which indicate the Wiz are being underrated. I believe we will eclipse those projections with 45 wins earning us the 5th seed in the East, but getting beyond the 2nd round would likely require an injury to Lebron, Dwight Howard, or one of the key Celtics, while we stay healthy. This Wizard team may well be the best we've had in awhile, the problem is that the competition is also the best it's been.

Despite these competitive hurdles, the Wizards are back both literally and figuratively, and not a moment too soon.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Football season is in full swing! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking is in full force. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the seventh game of the season:

-4th and goal with 5 minutes to go. The snap doesn't even make it to Campbell. Mike Tirico says: "and that summarizes the Washington Redskins." Yes it does.

-Play-calling: not so bad, and obviously, not the problem. Jim Zorn, vindicated, sort of.

-Gruden was announcing like he wants the 'Skins job. Not a negative word, which is pretty telling considering how hard it is for every other human watching this game to not notice how bad they are.

-Jaws hates Campbell.

-I feel bad for Campbell. He has been absolutely brutalized physically, mentally, emotionally. Even so, he is better than half the starting QBs in the NFL. Just remember this fact when we're trotting out washed up re-treads for the next few seasons.

-Cooley done. Awesome.

-Devin Thomas and Fred Davis with receiving TDs and career highs!

-Malcolm Kelly with diddly poo!

-The only member of the secondary who didn't completely suck today was D******* Hall. Go figure.

-Not that we ever had a chance, but why doesn't the offense show a little URGENCY and PACE in drives in the 4th quarter? This has been a problem for years and it drives me absolutely crazy.

-Every Redskins loss makes me more sad than I've ever been in my life, and every loss this season just gets sadder and sadder. That means, every time you see me after a Redskins game, that's the saddest day of my life.

Maybe I'm a little late to the party, but a buddy of mine informed me about Playerwives.com yesterday. Subsequently, it took me over eight hours to complete what unfortunately became a four page book report. I mean, come on bro, who knew Scottie Upshall's girlfriend was...well...just have a looksy.

And now some of our local heroes' lady friends (click their names for more pics and commentary):