The Playoff Picture: August 13

After a one-week hiatus due to vacation, the Playoff Picture returns to find the Crew’s
flickering postseason hopes in much the same position they were two weeks ago.

That is to say, much needs to go their way to get back into the playoff hunt in the Eastern
Conference. According to www.sportsclubstats.com, the team’s chances have actually risen compared
to two weeks ago: from 2.6 percent to 3.4. With 26 points, the Crew remains eighth in the East and
seven points behind fifth-place Houston.

What need to happen this week to improve those chances? Let’s take a look…

The MathSince MLS went to a 34-game schedule in the 2011 season, the final team to make the playoffs
in either conference has finished with an average of 47.8 points – an average of 1.41 points earned
per match.

The Crew now sits at 26 points through 23 games played, an average of 1.13 points earned per
match. In order to reach 47.8 points, the Crew must earn 21.8 points in its final 11 matches. That
averages out to 1.98 points earned per match, a figure that would be tops in all of MLS this
season. Current Supporters’ Shield leader Real Salt Lake is averaging 1.71 points earned per match
while posting an 11-7-4 record.

When the Crew last reached the playoffs in 2011, it averaged 1.38 points per game.

Who To Watch This WeekAside from the fact that the Crew can ill afford many more losses, if any at all, the team
needs others to start dropping points. Three of the seven teams ahead of the Crew in the Eastern
Conference still have a game in hand, further complicating matters.

For now, let’s take the approach that the Crew could rise as high as fifth in the standings.
That means any points earned by Sporting Kansas City, New York, Montreal and Philadelphia will have
minimal impact on the Crew’s postseason chances. This could change as soon as next week as the
Impact has lost two straight and is 1-4-3 in its last eight to fall to fourth place, two points
ahead of Houston.

Sixth-place Chicago hosts seventh-place New England at the same time the Crew hosts Toronto FC.
The Crew and Revolution are even on games played while Chicago has played one fewer. The Crew still
has one home game against the Fire and a home-and-home to close the season with New England. As
long as it can stay within five points of the Revolution with two games remaining, the Crew could
overtake New England in the standings.

With the Fire still holding a game in hand, Crew fans should likely either root for a New
England win or a draw.

Meanwhile, Houston stays out west after losing to Real Salt Lake last weekend. The Dynamo will
play at Seattle on Saturday night in a game that kicks off 90 minutes after the Crew’s game against
Toronto. A Sounders win would obviously help the Crew.

The struggling Impact, which is now only two points ahead of Houston, should find a cure for
what ails it when it travels to face D.C. United this weekend. It’s hard to project any help there
for the Crew.

The Good NewsAs I mentioned above, the Crew still has a home game against Chicago and two games against
the Revolution. It also has a home game remaining against Houston, meaning the Crew can gain at
least three points on each of the three teams immediately above in the standings without needing
outside help.

A Crew win would move it nine points ahead of Toronto, which I suppose qualifies as good news.
Toronto is also 1-6-2 in Columbus.

The Crew trails Houston in wins, but has moved ahead in goals scored (27 to 26), which would be
the next tiebreaker if the teams were tied in points and wins. That is progress from where the Crew
stood two weeks ago, when it held neither of the two tiebreakers with the fifth-place team.

The Bad NewsThe Crew is yet to win consecutive games this season. After a win this year, the Crew is
0-4-2.

Although the Crew is seven points behind Houston for the final playoff spot in the East, it
trails the Dynamo in wins (9 to 7). That means that the Crew is technically eight points out of the
final spot at the moment, and it is chasing three teams for that spot.

After the Toronto game, the Crew’s next five opponents are all currently in playoff position or
tied on points (Real Salt Lake, Seattle, Houston, Sporting Kansas City and Montreal). Three of
those five are on the road.