Friday, September 07, 2007

Simulating The Rest of The Season

Normally, I'd include a bunch of uneeded charts and graphs to a post like this but time is short, so I'll get to the point. I used the teams' pythagorean record to simulate the rest of the season 100,000 times to see how the NL Central might end up. I was specifically interested in the chances of a two or three way tie occuring. I have no time to check my work, so take these numbers with a grain of salt:

So, the Brewers have about a 39% chance of at least tieing the NL Central. Assuming a 50% chance of winning a two way tie and a 33% chance of winning a three way tie, that gives the Crew about a 33% chance of making the playoffs.The Cubs have about a 54% chance; the Cardinals a 13% chance.

Here are the odds for the final win total for the Brewers (83 wins is the average):