China's Potemkin economy

Over-investment and a failure to write off bad debts will create progressively less economic activity.

Two views prevail when it comes to China’s debt crisis pessimists are concerned about a catastrophic crash, while optimists predict a soft landing as gradual reforms correct the systemic issues.

The crash scenario is predicated on continuing increases in debt levels and over-investment, as policy adjustments are fatally delayed and authorities are ultimately forced to tighten credit aggressively, triggering failures in the financial system and a sharp slowdown in growth.