New research from The Diffusion Group (TDG) finds that Disney’s upcoming direct-to-consumer (DTC) subscription service, Disney+, will likely see solid interest — assuming it comes to market at the right price.

TDG recently surveyed adult broadband users regarding the likelihood they would sign up for “a Netflix-like service from Disney” that included:

The Disney movie library (titles from Disney, National Geographic, Pixar, and Marvel, including Star Wars movies);

The largest collection of Disney TV shows for children; and

Original shows and movies created exclusively for the service.

Respondents were randomly assigned one of three price points for the service, either $5.99, $7.99, or $9.99 per month. On average, 43% of adult broadband users are to various degrees likely to sign up, 27% moderately or highly likely to subscribe.

“Based on our research, Disney+ will enjoy strong early demand,” notes Michael Greeson, TDG President. “The amount of high-quality content being packed into the offering will make it not only appealing, but very sticky.”

The Diffusion Group (TDG) States: Disney+ Likely to be Well Received

TDG views the launch of Disney+ as a major test for the direct-to-consumer model, as it differs from both subscription aggregators like Netflix and streaming ‘channels’ like HBO Now. “This is a major studio pooling what is arguably the largest library of high-value content on the planet to populate a single branded subscription service,” said Greeson. Notably, to further fortify the service, Disney is pulling select content from third-party SVOD providers like Netflix, suggesting a tribalism of sorts, with big-name studios reserving their best content for their own DTC services. As such, Disney+ will be under a microscope; a running case study of what DTC can be, and a real-time measure of what impact, if any, such tribalism may have on the value chain.

While Disney+ appeals to a wide range of consumers, interest varies within several key segments. For example:

Legacy pay-TV subscribers are more strongly interested in Disney+ than both cord-nevers and cord-cutters;

Hulu subscribers are more likely to sign up than are Prime Video and Netflix subscribers; and

Those under the age of 35 are twice as likely as their older counterparts to be strongly interested in Disney+, as are those with children under 18 living in the home.

This data is part of TDG’s eighth annual Video Behavior in the Age of Quantum Video, an annual survey of US connected consumers focused on multi-context, multi-device video viewing.

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