BMI View: We expect the Serbian medical device market to increase by 1.1% in US dollar terms in 2016,up from -21.6% in 2015, due to a smaller depreciation of the Serbian dinar against the US dollar.Economic growth will remain tepid in 2016, but recovering demand from Serbia's European tradingpartners will boost export growth. The majority of medical devices are imported as local manufacturersfocus on disposables such as bandages and syringes, and low-tech equipment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- We forecast that the market will register a 2014-2019 CAGR of 2.7% in local currency terms, but the2014-2019 CAGR will be weaker in US dollar terms due to the projected depreciation of the Serbiandinar against the dollar. We forecast a 2014-2019 CAGR of -0.6% to take the market from USD159.1mnin 2014 to USD154.4mn in 2019.

- Due to slow economic growth and the continued depreciation of the Serbian dinar, we believe that importgrowth will be negative in US dollar terms throughout most of 2016. In the 12 months to December 2015,imports fell by 15.4% to USD124.0mn.

- Due to brightening growth prospects in Serbia's European export markets, we believe that exportperformance will remain positive in 2016, although growth is likely to be less rapid than that recorded inQ415, due to the nature of one-off purchases in the diagnostic imaging sector. In the 12 months toDecember 2015, exports rose by 3.9% to USD71.1mn.

- In March 2016, Serbia joined the EU Health Programme 2014-2020, which aims to promote health,prevent disease, protect citizens from serious cross-border health threats, advocate innovation withinhealth systems and improve access to better and safer healthcare. Serbia's participation in the programmewill lead to greater investment in health system development, increased regional co-operation and a moreefficient implementation of preventive measures.

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