Messages

Had a pretty positive last week with the NRL and AFL. Only had a few plays but cashed in. Record stands at 13-8 +14.84 units.

Have a couple of 3 unit plays tonight that I'm fairly confident on starting with the AFL.

Hawthorn vs West Coast

This match should define finals football despite us still being a week away. West Coast had their best game all year last week. Nic Nat and Dean Cox ensured that their team got first touch around the stoppages all night and that domination showed up on the scoreboard in the end. With Hawthorn's ruck being a little out of sorts lately expect West Coast to cash in at the stoppages.

Both defenses look fairly solid, with the edge going to Hawthorn here because they seem to turn defense into attack and really get out on the fast break with their backs. West Coast aren't as potent but normally do fairly well one-on-one inside their own forward 50. This will have to be the case tonight if they're to shut down Buddy Franklin, Roughead and a host of Hawthorn small forwards.

The key to the game is limiting Hawthorn's uncontested ball. They normally just pick teams apart with their superb foot skills so West Coast has to show up or risk a blow out on the road. Both teams have a lot at stake - Hawthorn look to sew up top spot, whereas West Coast look to secure a top 4 spot and avoid a potential elimination final against a hot Freo side. Throw in the fact that the last 3 games between these two have been decided by less than a combined 20 points and the only option is to take West Coast and the points. Hawthorn to win by about 2 or 3 goals.

And in the NRL, just have the one play with the Knights tackling the Rabbits at home. The Knights are playing for pride, whereas the Rabbits are playing for a top 4 spot. So you'd think the motivational factor would be with Souths. However, I'm not prepared to play them on the line tonight.

I've said it all year, Souths will not make any noise in the finals and although they aren't playing a top side in the Knights, they shouldn't be taken lightly playing at Hunter Stadium. It's almost a similar situation to last year, where Souths had to win to get into the finals but they were blown out and consequently missed out on playing in September. I know 12 months is a long time, but if history is anything to go by we should get a Knights team that is willing to show up and play hard in the last game of the season.

With the Knights riding a 10-2 run in Old Boys' games, plus the fact that Wayne Bennett won't let his troops lie down at home I think we see a close game decided by a couple of points either way.

Yeah Rioli is in and Rosa is out, but the reason I'm going with the Coasters is mainly due to the imbalance at the ruck. Hawthorn mids are normally really good and if West Coast can control the ruck then that'll limit Hawthorn's run. And yeah, I don't normally like playing the 1-39, 40+ margins just because if I go 1-39 I hate seeing the team I had money on blow out and win by 40+ or whatever. Basically I feel a lot safer taking the points here.

Also guys, keep an eye on the Freo and Melbourne game for Saturday night. If the Hawks win and North win by a huge margin then Freo will be required to win by "not too much" to ensure they play an 'away' game on their home ground against West Coast, rather than travelling to Melbourne. So just keep in mind there could be a good chance of Melbourne Demons covering that big spread.

Don't know what to make of the NRL yet becauae I have not done much reading but I can tell you this - St Kilda will ensure that Carlton head into the off season on a loss. People will fall into the trap of backing the Blues to get up because it's Brett Ratten's last game as coach. But thw simple fact is that if Carlton can't get up for a game against Gold Coast with their playoff aspirations on the line then how are they going to get up for a meaningless game this afternoon? The answer is they won't. Saints destroyed GWS last week and I actually rate the Saints as a team. I think they cover this afternoon and ens the season positively.

Don't know what to make of the NRL yet becauae I have not done much reading but I can tell you this - St Kilda will ensure that Carlton head into the off season on a loss. People will fall into the trap of backing the Blues to get up because it's Brett Ratten's last game as coach. But thw simple fact is that if Carlton can't get up for a game against Gold Coast with their playoff aspirations on the line then how are they going to get up for a meaningless game this afternoon? The answer is they won't. Saints destroyed GWS last week and I actually rate the Saints as a team. I think they cover this afternoon and ens the season positively.

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