UPDATE :Will be gone by conference. Offers the Lib Dems a chance to form coalition with him until the autumn, when he will be replaced by victor of Labour leadership contest. Clegg has requested formal talks. Quite the spanner in the works.

Sources say the negotiating teams have a deal to sell their respective parties. We’ll know what shape that deal takes shortly…

LibDemVoice has just released a poll of LibDem members – 80% say that without significant progress on electoral reform the deal is off. So that is one part of the triple-lock that the key may not be in in. The Federal Executive is the other part of the lock – some 35 strong, which means that if 9 liberal-lefties or PR purists say nay, it will have less than 75% support and the deal is off.

It ain’t going to be easy for Clegg to get 75% support from his MPs and the Fed Exec for a full blown coalition with the Tories unless there’s a solid deal on PR, which it doesn’t seem there is (at least in the eyes of LibDem activists – some of whom think securing anything less than immediate legislation for STV would be a sell out). So, say the LibDem triple lock stays locked, what next?

It may be that in that situation some of the more right-wing LibDem MPs are willing to propel Cameron into Downing Street anyway. Cameron may also be willing to offer ministerial positions to any LibDems who do go for UDI if the weirdie-beardie party machinery hampers a deal…

Guido was under the impression that MPs lost their seats because they are unpopular and people were fed up with listening to them. So of course BBC feel the need to turn two such washed-out LibDems into permanent pundits – unelected failures still preaching.

Dr Evan Harris and Lembit Opik haven’t been off the air-waves ever since the delicious news of their defeats emerged. If anyone thought we might finally be free of Harris’s evangelical atheism then think again.Though his new career path is more respectful than his previous choices…

The Liberal Democrats have been notoriously short of talking heads in the past and as they are thrust into the limelight their lack of decent people to push their line is becoming painfully clear. Laughing-stock Lembit is hardly a reassuring presence on the screen. At least we can still keep an eye on him this way. Due to their imminent oblivion, at least it isn’t Labour losers the cameras are turning too. Being lectured by Jacqui Smith and Shahid Malik would be a step too far…

First day for a couple of hundred or so new MPs today. The thrill of looking for a new office, excitement at your new status, a slight sense of disbelief that you pulled it off. Congratulations, well done.

Here’s some advice. Read the Green Book, it is your responsibility to know the rules. Better still read the Shadow Kelly Report on reforming the rules and best practise, there are copies in the House of Commons library. Screw up and try to use the excuse “I thought it was within the rules” and you’ll be unemployed after the next election (which might be sooner than you think).

Don’t claim for a single thing that you don’t want to see on the front page of your local constituency newspaper.

Why are you in parliament? If it just to climb the greasy pole of power (and for many of you it is) well nothing Guido says is going to influence you. If you have ideals, hold onto them, resist all baubles and temptations that might lead you to abandon those ideals. Being a backbench MP who influences legislation for the better is a worthy if not so glamorous role.

Finally, never forget Guido and his co-conspirators will be watching you. Step out of line by doing the wrong thing and we’ll be down on you like a ton of bricks. Be seeing you….

Sterling is rising from lows against the dollar as the City expects a Lib-Con deal, gilts are going sideways, the EU Greece-Euro bailout is also cheering markets. Gilts are a buy if you believe a Lib-Con regime will take tough action on the deficit…

Quote of the Day

“I read more bloggers now than mainstream columnists, because they’ve got more interesting things to say. Too many columnists today make you think, ‘Yeah, I think you’ve said that 10 times before and I’ve just noticed your column has not go a single fact in it’”.