Election 2015: the final debate – the bookies’ verdict is in

Markets are starting to suggest that the election race is all over, says Adrian Sykes.

David Cameron on Question Time will he be forming the next government?

In my judgement, in last night's Question Time Special, Cameron scored 8.5 out of 10, Miliband 6 and Clegg 5. Furthermore, Miliband's mistake in failing to acknowledge any role in, or responsibility for, the financial crisis, will cost him dear.

Unsurprisingly, the spreads have moved:

Tories

290.5 - 294.5

Labour

262.5 - 266.5

Lib Dem

23 - 25

SNP

48.5 - 50.5

Ukip

3.2 - 4.7

The maths (using the offer prices):

Tories/Lib Dem

294 + 25 = 319 (+ DUP, no UKIP =327),

Labour/SNP

266 + 50 = 316 (no Lib Dem) = failure.

on

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trend

Tories

310

Labour

248

Lib Dem

15 (Clegg beaten)

SNP

50

Ukip

2 (Farage beaten)

DUP

8

Sinn Fein

5 (won't take up seats)

Other

12 (SDLP, Plaid Cymru, Green, etc)

Total

650 (323 needed for a majority)

I suspect that a good way to make money in the stockmarket would be to buy Lloyds at 83p (up sharply today on strong first-quarter figures for full disclosure, I own the shares myself). The shares would probably take off during the first few months of a Tory-led government.

Things could easily change in the final few days, but markets are starting to suggest that it's all over. How long will it take for the polls to catch up?