Halo 4 lost nearly half of its userbase just two weeks after release, when Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 released.

Microsoft and 343 would never admit it, but the data is right there. While their own internal metrics are likely much more comprehensive, a basic overview of the data was publicly compiled in a brilliant NeoGAF post. As you can see at the link, Halo 4’s multiplayer popularity came out of the gate strong, peaking at over 400,000 users, but lost nearly half of its userbase just two weeks later when Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 released. And those people never came back, with Halo 4 eventually petering out into an online community whose active members number in the low five figures – virtually nothing compared to the series’ peak popularity in the Halo 2 and Halo 3 days.

Thus, despite Halo 4’s impressive sales figures, it had the shortest tail of any of its numbered predecessors, a worrisome trend for the Xbox’s flagship franchise. And while 343 no doubt has plenty of fan feedback on the subject, they may not quite be sure of exactly what it will take for Halo to become a long-legged online multiplayer force once again.

And so 343’s dilemma is a big one: Halo multiplayer clearly needs something, but what? As development costs grow with each new game and each new console generation, the stakes are too high for Halo to fail. Halo 5 has to be big, and 343 has to be certain. So far, the answer hasn’t lied with Call of Duty. Halo tried to incorporate elements of Call of Duty – the current and long-running king of multiplayer – with both Bungie’s Halo: Reach and 343’s Halo 4, but Microsoft clearly hasn’t gotten the results it hoped for.

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The stakes are too high for Halo 5 to fail.

This, I believe, is the real reason why the Master Chief Collection – Halo 1-4, each with its original fully featured multiplayer suite – was green-lit: to study the modern Xbox gamer and figure out what kind of Halo multiplayer those players want.

The Chief Collection’s inclusion of the Halo 5 beta – scheduled to begin in December of this year – is the perfect carrot to dangle at the end of the stick. With it, Microsoft not only provides a compelling incentive to purchase its biggest holiday 2014 title, but it lures the exact focus testers it wants in order to try and fix its Halo problem.

The fourth Halo sold well but didn't have the multiplayer legs of its predecessors.

It’s risky for Microsoft and 343 to release a public multiplayer beta of the console’s crown jewel franchise a full 11 months prior to its probable November 2015 release (Microsoft has only confirmed “fall” 2015) – it leaves plenty of time for rivals of all shapes and sizes to borrow and/or build on its best ideas, potentially before Halo 5 even makes it to market – but it tells me one thing. Unlike most multiplayer “betas” like Battlefield 4 or Titanfall – which happen so close to release that they are server stress tests at best and marketing vehicles at worst – 343 actually plans on making significant design decisions based on the feedback gleaned from this beta.

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I believe 343 actually plans on making significant design decisions based on the feedback gleaned from the Halo 5 beta.

343 even acknowledged this, with Franchise Development Director Frank O’Connor telling me, “[The Halo 5 multiplayer beta is] going to be very practically useful for us. We’re constantly listening to fan feedback about the game – where they want it to go, [or] whether they want it to even go back.”

Notice O’Connor’s emphasis on the word “back.” Halo 2’s multiplayer is beloved, but would it stand up in 2014? Do fans today really want Halo to return to the power weapons and dual wielding of Bungie’s 2004 smash hit? What about Halo 3, which had its own unique weapons, vehicles, features, and feel; do fans want that? Releasing all four mainline Halo games – complete with their original multiplayers – is a chance for 343 to find out and to tailor Halo 5 accordingly. Sure, 343 has a plan, and we’ll see the direction they’re initially pointed in for Master Chief’s first native Xbox One outing. But, like so many other aspects of the newest Xbox system, the direction it ultimately takes could end up being a completely different one than originally envisioned.

Is Halo 2 the answer to 343's Halo 5 dilemma?

Of course, that means that yes, we are, in a sense, being used as focus testers for Halo 5. And we’re paying Microsoft for the privilege. But I, for one, am OK with what I’m getting in return: Halo 1 finally playable online after 13 years, and Halo 2 playable online for the first time in nearly five.

Halo multiplayer is dying, and 343 is looking to the franchise’s past in order to find its future. We hold the power to shape the next few years of Halo. Let’s not screw it up.