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For a year now, the political calculus has been applied to a matrix of possibilities around the 2014 vote for mayor of Toronto.

The conclusion of the number crunchers fuelling the contenders is this: Incumbent Rob Ford, at best, will poll just less than a quarter of the votes on Oct. 27; at worst, his support could drop to the high teens, but don’t count on that.

Talk show host John Tory, sitting within striking distance of the front-runner, Olivia Chow, has great capacity to grow his support by drawing fiscal conservatives, progressive Liberals, hardline right-wingers fed up with the circus around Ford and votes from the downtown lefties and New Democrats, if that’s what it takes to oust Ford.

Tory’s counting on the Big Tent. But the race is Olivia Chow’s to lose.

Note that David Soknacki, already declared, and Councillor Karen Stintz, declaring next week, are not given a real chance — not in a crowded field with four or more right-of-centre mainline candidates. Their supporters, though, plus the thousands that will spread among the expected 40 or so marginal candidates, may turn out to be the balance of power at the end — if none of Ford, Chow or Tory can separate from the pack by September.

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Ever since rumours surfaced that New Democrat MP Chow might run, she has led opinion polls of potential challengers to Ford. One Forum Research poll in mid-February put the hypothetical race among the six this way: Chow 35 per cent, Ford 30, Tory 22, Stintz 6 and Soknacki 3. It’s a realistic reflection of where voters are today — with only Ford and Soknacki registered as candidates.

The right of the political spectrum is — or will become — very crowded. Soknacki and Stintz are fiscal conservatives who don’t scare progressives. Tory is a Red Tory who once led the provincial Progressive Conservatives and is often viewed as a David Crombie or Bill Davis kind of Conservative. And there is Ford.

In essence, Conservative voters for mayor will be asked to either choose Rob Ford or a kinder, gentler, smarter, less combustible version. The thinking is the majority of Conservatives want no part of Ford, but who is best positioned to draw enough votes to beat Chow?

Chow, a former city councillor, has no such problems. She is the only mainline candidate on the political left. If they stick with her she should have enough votes to make the argument she is the Ford-slayer.

The consensus is that come September, after a summer of debates and scrutiny, voters will have a pretty good fix on the candidates. Ford’s support will be essentially unchanged. And voters who want him gone will be torn between Tory and Chow.

All Chow has to do is hold her lead and present herself as the one most likely to defeat Ford, and she should prevail. In the end, citizens who see Stintz or Soknacki as their first choice will abandon them to ensure Ford does not win. Who they turn to might tip the balance.

It’s not a given that Chow can hold on to her lead. Who will we see on the campaign trail under the Chow banner? A resolute, decisive candidate who inspires confidence as a new and competent leader of a 21st century city? Or will she play as a downtown lefty looking to bring back the David Miller years?

Tory must erode Chow’s support, and chip away at Ford’s, if he is to gain credence as the one to beat Ford. His message would be: Toronto needs a change, but a change for the better. Safe change. Change that won’t hurt your pocketbook.

So, as spring turns to summer, if Tory and Chow are in the race, expect them to target each other in a battle for the souls of moderate Toronto. Chow only needs a small fraction of these voters to stake her claim as the “beat Ford” choice.

Tory, meanwhile, without a huge base of support, and hurt by his hesitancy to enter the race, has a much more difficult path to victory. He must capture most of the soft Chow votes, and he must appeal to the Soknacki and Stintz camps to join him in the cause; plus, steal a bit of Ford’s backers.

Difficult, but not impossible.

Now you understand why Tory has taken his time entering a race that is volatile, one that requires months of hand-to-hand combat to deliver the mayor’s title.

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