The state of Wisconsin has been on the rise recently, showing up on several occasions in the pre-season rankings as well as in the playoffs. For those of you who doubt that, just ask tannhauser. He played 3 consecutive playoff games against teams from Wisconsin last season, defeating Concordia (WI) and Wisconsin-Stout, before falling to the eventual National Champions Wisconsin-Platteville.
With some major changes within these 3 teams who have been consistently putting on great seasons (Wisconsin-Stout is now coached by a sim, and slid64er who built a national champion in 4 seasons at Wisconsin-Platteville has moved up to DII), how will the state perform this season?
Below are the elkhour Power Rankings (EPR) for the DIII teams in Bryant for Season 87:

1. Huntingdon (superv97)Overall rating: 568 (rank 1)Offense rating: 583 (rank 1)Defense rating: 553 (rank 5)
Analysis: You guessed it right! Huntingdon is EPR pre-season #1 once again, and they have been there ever since I started this thread 3 seasons ago. But guess what? As you are soon to find out, the other teams are catching up: how long can Huntingdon hold at #1? While they are topping the offensive and overall rankings, their defense ranking fell down to 5. superv97 has lead Huntingdon to winning 4 consecutive NJAC championships, and six consecutive trips to the regional finals or better (3 national championship losses followed by 3 regional finals losses). If the defense steps up, he can finally win the whole thing!Key Games: @ King's (Week 3), @ Methodist (Week 4)
Players to watch: Luis Brown (QB), Rodney Wilson (DL), Gary Vickers (DB)

2. Concordia (WI) (elkhour)
Overall rating: 568 (rank 2)
Offense rating: 568 (rank 4)
Defense rating: 567 (rank 2)
Analysis: After a 50-51 loss to Susquehanna due to a missed XP in the playoffs last season, Concordia (WI) is looking to continue its recent success and compete another time for the title they won in Season 83. They have been ranked in the post-season Top 5 for the last four seasons, finishing 1st, 5th, 2nd, and 3rd consecutively. They've been the dominant force in the IBFC recenlty, going 54-0 in the last 6 seasons, grabbing 6 consecutive CC of course. elkhour has an amazing 111-16 record at Concordia (WI) and he's looking to build up on this with a well balanced team all over the field.
Key Games: Hiram (Week 1), New Jersey (Week 2), Whittier (Week 5), Benedictine (Week 8)
Players to watch: Kevin Harper (QB), Antonio Thomas (DL), George Chavez (DB)

3. Wisconsin-Platteville (bandit13)
Overall rating: 564 (rank 3)
Offense rating: 581 (rank 2)
Defense rating: 547 (rank 8)
Analysis: slid64er has built a national champion in 4 seasons at Wisconsin-Platteville, but has now moved up to DII. The new coach bandit13, who has done a great job at Curry in the last 2 seasons, gets the undaunted task of defending that national title, something that hasn't been done since season 72. Lead by a prolific passing offense, Wisconsin-Platteville has what it takes to compete once again. If the defense puts up some good showing, expect to see them in the Final Four once again.
Key Games: @ Macalester (Week 2), @ Bridgewater (Week 4), Waynesburg (Week 5), Wisconsin-Stevens Point (Week 13)
Players to watch: James Frazier (QB), Ronald Macdonald (WR), Robert Barnard (TE)

4. Gettysburg (hallgren)
Overall rating: 564 (rank 4)
Offense rating: 557 (rank 9)
Defense rating: 572 (rank 1)
Analysis: National champions in season 84, national runner-ups and ranked #3 in season 85, ranked #2 last season, Gettysburg has been one of the best teams in DIII recently. They also have the #1 ranked defense going through this season, and despite their offense being ranked 9th, this is a very dangerous because they run the football a ton. By dominating TOP, they can pretty much beat everyone with their good defense, and make a deep playoff run once again. hallgren has lead them to 7 consecutive CC championships, and it looks like Muhlenberg is everything that stands between them and an 8th one.
Key Games: @ Curry (Week 3), @ Hiram (Week 5), Muhlenberg (Week 10)
Players to watch: Michael Moody (RB), Jose Rasmussen (OL), David Hondo (DL)

5. Ferrum (bugeaters11)
Overall rating: 558 (rank 5)
Offense rating: 556 (rank 10)
Defense rating: 560 (rank 3)
Analysis: Usually at #2, Ferrum has dropped to 5 this year, but they're still a perennial national championship contender. While the defense looks brilliant, they need the offense to take it up a level and give them a chance to win the title for the first time since Season 75. The team has also finished in the post-season Top 5 for the last 3 seasons, at 5, 4, and 3 retrospectively, and they are 36-0 in conference play in the last 4 seasons. They are lacking the top QB they always used to have, but they are still enough of a dangerous team.
Key Games: Wisconsin Lutheran (Week 3), Maryville (Week 8), Methodist (Week 11)
Players to watch: James Dunlap (RB), James Allen (DL), Thomas Ward (DB)

6. MIT (bearhockey)
Overall rating: 557 (rank 6)
Offense rating: 565 (rank 6)
Defense rating: 549 (rank 7)
Analysis: With the 4th different coach in the last 4 seasons, MIT is still in the Top 10, talk about consistency... Even better, new head coach bearhockey has put on a brilliant recruiting class, ranked #2 in the nation in DIII. MIT has won 8 conference championships and a national title in the last 8 seasons, and there is no reason to doubt they will be a heavy contender once again. They've been consistently showing up in the post-season Top 10 in all of these last 8 seasons, expect them to be there once again this year! While playing in a lousy conference, their OOC schedule has some challenges for them this season, that will show how good that team really is.
Key Games: @ Whitter (Week 1), @ Martin Luther (Week 3), Wilmington (OH) (Week 4)
Players to watch: Patrick Navarro (QB), Harold Berry (DL), Louis Carter (LB)

7. Austin (eblake)
Overall rating: 555 (rank 7)
Offense rating: 575 (rank 3)
Defense rating: 534 (rank 12)
Analysis: An offensive powerhouse! But be careful... It looks like they're going for the Wishbone this year, and the defense has to be much better than it's ranked for them to be national contenders with the Wishbone. Playing in the most competitive conference in DIII Bryant, the ASC, Austin will have their work cut out this season, and coach eblake is hoping he will finally go back to the Final Four, as he hasn't been since Season 81. He is yet to win a national title, and he's hoping the Wishbone will lead it there this season.
Key Games: Howard Payne (Week 7), @ East Texas Baptist (Week 8), @ California Lutheran (Week 12)
Players to watch: Jesus Hernandez (RB), John Burgess (OL), Andrew Jones (DL)

8. Susquehanna (tannhauser)
Overall rating: 552 (rank 8)
Offense rating: 549 (rank 14)
Defense rating: 555 (rank 4)
Analysis: Last season's Final Four Susquehanna are hoping for a better outcome this time, and they have the defense to lead them there. They have 8 playoff appearances, 4 conference championships, and 2 Final Four appearances in the last 8 seasons. tannhauser is yet to win a national title with Susquehanna, and he's hoping 23 is the number to final achieve that. While King's looks like their only challenge within the MAC, they have 2 VERY competitive OOC games.
Key Games: Mount Union (Week 2), @ Loras (Week 5), @ King's (Week 10)
Players to watch: John York (QB), Stephen Murray (DL), Edwin Gonzales (LB)

9. St. Olaf (mfnmyers)
Overall rating: 551 (rank 9)
Offense rating: 559 (rank 8)
Defense rating: 544 (rank 10)
Analysis: An upset by Carleton prevented them from winning the conference last season, they were then eliminated in the second round of the playoffs. mfnmyers is definitely hoping for better this time around, and his team is loaded as usual and balanced enough to be able to defeat just about everyone. He's hoping his recent strategy change of having one RS Sr QB every season will work out in his favor, and he surely has a great defensive unit!
Key Games: Carleton (Week 12), @ Bethany (Week 13)
Players to watch: John Fitzgerald (QB), George Ferguson (DL), Harry Singleton (DB)

10. Loras (bisoneer)
Overall rating: 551 (rank 10)
Offense rating: 556 (rank 11)
Defense rating: 547 (rank 9)
Analysis: Host of the real coaches poll (BCP), bisoneer is hoping for more progression in the playoffs, as he's been eliminated in round 1 in season 84, round 2 in season 85, and round 3 in season 86. Can they win back the title they won in Season 81? With a loaded OOC schedule, Loras has to be very good and definitely prevent what happened for the first time in a long time last season, 3 consecutive defeats in the regular season.
Key Games: @ Macalester (Week 1), @ Thomas More (Week 3), Susquehanna (Week 5)
Players to watch: Vernon Collins (OL), Joseph Hopkins (DL), Mark Hunt (DB)

1/29
The season has finally kicked off, and we had a great first with a ton of competitive games.Loras "didn't start the season on the right foot", going 0-1 after a 24-38 loss at Macalester. A fumble on the first play of the game was an indication of what was going to come for Loras, as they conceded this first defeat. Eugene Willis had a great game, finishing 30/49 for 354 yards and 4 TD.
Another competitive game involving a team from the IIAC was an absolute shootout, Waynesburg doing just enough to come up with a 57-49 win against Bridgewater in triple OT. Larry Rodriguez was the player of the game, finishing 23/42 for 364 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT.
In what was billed as the Game Of The Week, MIT showed their class with a 17-6 win at Whittier. Whittier had 346 yards of offense but couldn't score any TD, and the margin would have been even higher had Allen Garcia not gone 1/4 FG.
It wasn't a much better day for the rest of the SCAC, as Trinity (TX) fell 10-35 at Carleton, and La Verne also started 0-1 after a 14-24 loss at King's.

1/30
Our picks for games that you shouldn't miss today had much closer outcomes than those for yesterday, let's quickly review week 2 top games:
Defending national champions Wisconsin-Platteville needed 2 FG in the 4th quarter while completely shutting down Macalester, in order to come on top with a 27-24 win. James Frazier continues to put on monstruous performances, this time finishing 23/34 for 314 yards and 3 TD.
In a grueling matchup, Mount Union improved to 2-0 doing just fine to come on top 29-24 at Susquehanna. Both QB looked like color blind, John Head finishing with 3 picks, and John York with 4. With those 4 interceptions, plus 3 sacks, Mount Union showed they are ready to defend the pass this season.
In a defensive struggle, Jeffery Mendoza 3-yard run was the only score in the second half, leading Trinity (TX) to a 14-10 win against Curry. This was another turnover fiesta, as Curry finished with 5 and Trinity (TX) with 3. This made the difference in the game, since Curry outgained Trinity (TX) 401 yards to 228, and had 34:14 TOP.

1/31
Week 3 is over, and for the first time in my 9-season history in Bryant, I was defeated by a team that has EPR score less than of at least 50 points.St. Thomas totally outplayed Concordia (WI), scoring 28 unanswered points in the 4th quarter, to walk away with a 41-10 massive victory. They beat them in every single category, and Timothy Robbins was the player of the game, finishing with 29 carries for 175 yards and 1 TD.
In the week's best game, and the probably the season best so far, Whittier couldn't convert for 2 in the 4th OT, losing at Colorado College with a final score of 43-45. Leroy Anderson finished 28/43 for 306 yards, 2 TD, 1 TD. He also had 5 carries for 60 yards and 1 TD.Huntingdon improved to 3-0 after a 30-20 victory at King's (PA). Luis Brown finished 31/47 for 271 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT.
In another nail biter, Union (NY) defeated Case Western in triple overtime 54-51. Case Western had a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter, and it looked like they were walking away with their 3rd win this season, but Union (NY) had a brilliant comeback. Frank Orr made a 36-yard FG to cut the lead to 14 with 5:16 remaining. 2 plays later, Cecil Rosales was picked off and Union (NY) got the ball back. Donald Greer connected with George Murray for a 39-yard TD to cut the lead down the 7 with 3:40 remaining, then Union (NY) recovered the onside kick to maintain possession. Donald Greer then connected with Timothy Elliott for a 21-yard TD to tie the game with 10 seconds left and force overtime.

2/1
Week 4 games are history now, the first WIS rankings are released, and Mount Union sits on top.
Defending national champions Wisconsin-Platteville had another close one, as their defense held on to lead them past Bridgewater with a final score of 23-20. John Hoffman had 6 catches for 139 yards and 1 TD, while Terry Bennett had 5 tackles and 2 sacks.Whittier suffered their 3rd loss this season, 17-24 against California Lutheran. Despite 3 turnovers, California Lutheran still outgained Whittier 442 yards to 305. Robert Alvarado finished 22/37 for 322 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. California Lutheran are now 4-0, ranked #2 in the WIS rankings.
In another close game, Linfield defeated Macalester with a final score of 26-19. Macalester had more yards of offense and more first downs, but their 3rd down conversion of 5/13 hurt them. They were also 1/3 on 4th down, turning the ball over on downs twice.

2/2
OOC games are behind us now, and the important (but bit boring) part of the season starts tomorrow with conference play.#8 Waynesburg had a good comeback against the defending national champions #17 Wisconsin-Platteville, who eventually held on to win 35-21. After trailing 7-24 at halftime in what seemed to be a blowout, Waynesburg cut the lead to 6 early in the 4th quarter. But Platteville held on and sealed the win when Christopher Haines scored a 6-yard TD with 1:45 remaining.
In a defensive struggle, Loras held on to beat Suquehanna by a score of 10-7, in a game that had 15 punts and 4 turnovers. Last season Final Four Susquehanna were 2/10 on 3rd down, and they finished non-conference play with a 2-3 overall record. Their game at King's in week 10 now looks like a playoff game, win or go home.
After their surprising loss at St. Thomas, #11 Concordia (WI) seem are bouncing back with a second straight win, 34-17 against Whittier. They totally outgained them, 560 yards to 252, and their So RB Wayne Brown (13 CAR, 70 YDS, 2 TD, 1 REC, 2 YDS, 1 TD) was named player of the game.

Going through the brackets one by one, we will first rank the teams in the individual bracket using Elkhour Power Rankings. The format is Team (overall rating, offense rating-offense rank in this bracket, defense rating-defense rank in this bracket). We will then throw in few comments, and end with Upset Alert and Prediction. We will then compare the 4 brackets and rank them among each other in terms of talent (teams average rating) and competitiveness (standard deviation to show how close the team ratings are to each other)Sorry no hyperlinks this time as I don't have enough time :S Off We Go!

Three teams from this bracket also played in the North bracket last season (Colorado, Mount Union, and East Texas Baptist). While Union (NY) and Colorado are undefeated, and Mount Union only sustaining the WTF loss to a sim, Austin is the team that is looking the most dangerous out of this bracket. They have a very powerful offense that tends to run the football a ton and control TOP, and they have faced success with that during the regular season and the CC, where they avenged their only regular season loss against ETBU (who are also riding with them once again in the bracket for a potential third meeting).

Too bad Bridgewater is on auto-pilot, as they have the 3rd ranked team in this bracket. The bracket also features 3 teams that played in the South regionals last year (Menlo, Bridgewater, and Fairleigh Dickinson). Menlo's "Air Raid" lead them to win the bracket last season, before losing to the eventual national champions Wisconsin-Platteville in the national championship game. This year however, they have strong competition on the other side within the bracket itself, as Huntingdon vs. Loras in Round 2 looks to be a VERY interesting matchup.

A very stacked bracket with all 8 teams usually making it to the playoffs every year (#1 bracket in strength AND in competitiveness). Ferrum and St. Olaf are undefeated, Concordia only lost to St. Thomas, Linfield only lost to Menlo (twice), Gettysburg lost to a sim and to Union (NY) by 1 in the CC, California Lutheran has a habit of being one of the underseeded teams in the playoffs, and Macalester are very capable and they showed this against Loras in week 1. Linfield looks like the offensive powerhouse in this bracket, but they will be up against teams who are known for their solid defense year in/year out (Concordia (WI), Ferrum, Gettysburg, and St. Olaf). Also, 4 teams in this bracket have won national titles in recent years.

The defending national champions Wisconsin-Platteville undoubtedly have the best offense in DIII right now, and it looks like they have an easy way to the regional final. With MIT and Susquehanna on the other side however, the road to the Final Four is not a walk in the park. Talk about underseeding, how about Susquehanna at #7? Three losses in OOC did the trick, and fortunately for them they won the conference, otherwise they would have definitely missed the playoffs. Last season, they lost to Wisconsin-Platteville in the Final Four, they might play them again in the regional finals this season should they both make it.

Well, as per above, we have Austin vs. Huntingdon and Ferrum vs. Wisconsin-Platteville. Huntingdon and Ferrum have been the top 2 EPR teams for a long time, but they are yet to win it all since this thread started, will this be the year when one of them finally does it? I pick Huntingdon to beat Ferrum in the National Championship Game.

Posted by kcwallace on 1/28/2013 11:15:00 AM (view original):Elkhour, I think you got the NWC wrong, Menlo completely owned Linfield last season defeating us in convincing fashion 3 times (regular season, CC, and Final four)

True and I completely agree, Menlo was much better than Linfield last season, and they got to the National Championship for their effort. But I didn't do the predictions last season as I was away, not sure who I would have picked though but just saying :)
This season, they lack the QB and WR corps they consistently had in the last few seasons, and their defensive line can be better too. It will definitely be close as always, but I'm picking Linfield this season, we will see..

Sorry about the polls, I've been overwhelmed recently between school and working 2 jobs. I have the poll from after non-conference play, but I'm not sure that has any relevance now. I'll get the final poll up today and that will probably be my last one. Right now I don't have the time to continue it in future seasons.