Elo ratings are “a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent,” according to FiveThirtyEight’s website. After simulating the rest of the season 100,000 times, the website gave Denver a slim chance of reaching the postseason.

The Broncos’ chances are only slightly better than those of the Los Angeles Chargers (3-6, seven percent). Elsewhere in the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders (4-5) have a 14 percent chance and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) have a 97 percent chance.

Some Denver fans may feel like the season is already over, but the Broncos’ upcoming schedule features several winnable games. Denver’s next five opponents have a combined record of 18-29, an average of 3.6 wins per opponent. Granted, the Broncos also only have three wins, but their schedule is about to get a little easier.