Election night results showed Texas Democrats were competitive down the ballot, but Republicans confident the state will remain red.

AUSTIN — Looking solely at the result from the top of the ticket, it would appear that Texas Democrats had suffered another dismal election cycle and repeated a pattern that's been played and replayed for almost 25 years.

But a deeper dive into the returns from Tuesday night shows that for the first time this century, Democrats proved they could go toe-to-toe with Republicans, both statewide and on turf formerly hostile to both their message and their candidates.

A question that remains is whether Tuesday’s election results signal a shifting electorate in Texas or are the consequence of widespread enthusiasm for Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who ran an eye-catching but ultimately unsuccessful campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz.

“It’s hard to break old habits in the state with one cycle,” said Julián Castro, the former San Antonio mayor and secretary of Housing and Urban Development who is considered a run for president in 2020. “I think he has laid a foundation that is going to help make sure Texas is competitive in the years to come.

“He did a lot to move the ball forward, and there’s a lot we haven’t seen yet that’s going to happen,” Castro said.

While Cruz secured re-election to his second term, dashing the hopes of Democrats who had hoped to elect the first from their party to the U.S. Senate in 30 years, his victory over O’Rourke was hard-fought and the margin close. O’Rourke finished just 2.7 percentage points behind Cruz, a difference of about 223,000 votes.

This tight margin of victory was mirrored down ballot, as several statewide Republicans won re-election over Democratic challengers by mere single digits.

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Democrat Beto O'Rourke appeared at a campaign rally in Robstown on Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018, days before Election Day. He's in a heated battle with Republican Ted Cruz in the U.S. Senate race in Texas.(Photo: Tim Acosta/Caller-Times)

Flipping ex-GOP strongholds

More tellingly, Democrats flipped two congressional seats, a dozen state House seats and two state Senate seats, breaching what has been an impenetrable red fortress in Texas suburbs.

Many pointed to the results as a evidence of changing tides in Texas, the nation’s largest and perhaps most reliable Republican state.

Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said Wednesday that even though his party came up short on the statewide ticket, they “delivered the best statewide margin in a generation.”

"I still can't believe how close last night was,” he said in a statement. “We shattered all expectations and showed Texas is in play in 2020."

Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said down-ballot Democrats saw victories on Tuesday because O’Rourke “carried several people across the finish line” by boosting enthusiasm and voter turnout.

“Texas will continue a slow evolution, but it is slow,” Jillson said in an interview. “I think the Beto phenomenon was a one-off deal that Democrats won’t see replicated for years.”

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Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, prepares to make his entrance at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, talks to Heather Shields (left) and her daughter Deia Perez, 3, before speaking with supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Amaris Torres, 8, holds a sign supporting democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, during an event in which O'Rourke speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Supporters of democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, line up for photos with O'Rourke at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Supporters of Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, wait for O'Rourke to make his entrance at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. When he spoke about creating living wages for teachers, supporters in the audience stood up, applauding his comments. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Kim Dees sports stickers in support of democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, during an event in which he speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to media before an appearance at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, left, who was running for the U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, received a gift of Whataburger gift cards and a Whataburger hat from Mario Gomez, right, before speaking to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Supporters of Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, wait for O'Rourke to make his entrance at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, makes his entrance at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, makes his entrance at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

A supporter wears buttons supporting democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, as he speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018. Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times

Decades in the wilderness

Democrats have not seen statewide vote totals like the ones that came in Tuesday since 1998 when two candidates came within a whisker of winning.

Cruz won his first term in 2012 with 55.5 percent of vote. Two years later, Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn crushed his Democratic foe by more than 27 points. Abbott trounced Democrat Wendy Davis by a full 20 points, and similar margins were racked by by the rest of the GOP statewide ticket.

During the most recent presidential election, some Democrats were claiming a moral victory because Hillary Clinton lost by a mere 9 points to Donald Trump in Texas.

Bethany Albertson, a government professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said Tuesday’s results only slightly changed the state’s color, despite the gains made by Democrats and the close results in statewide races.

“I think the red has more of a purple hue today,” she said.

But she said that shift could be enough to create more competitive races in the future and prompt national arms of both parties to consider investing more in Texas.

“I hope that it means in the upcoming elections both parties take the state seriously and compete seriously in a host of races,” Albertson said. “If one of the stories is about Democratic strength, particularly in the cities, the other story you have to pay attention to is the high voter turnout.”

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The USA TODAY Network-Texas spent two days on the Texas Senate race 2018 campaign trail with Democrat Beto O'Rourke. He is challenging Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. This is the first in a two-part series.
Casey Jackson/Caller-Times

More than 8.3 million Texans participated in the November elections. That's nearly double the turnout for the 2014 midterms and almost as many as in the 2016 presidential election.

The subtle nature of the Democratic Party’s success on Tuesday, and O’Rourke’s influence on down-ballot races, could catch Republicans off guard down the road.

“Not having a ‘Beto wins’ headline could make Republicans less sensitive to the shifting electoral landscape than they ought to be,” Albertson said. “Beto winning would have been a jolt that everyone felt.”

Going beyond just the base

Jillson noted that it is unlikely Republicans will significantly alter their strategy ahead of the next election, especially given that Democratic victories were won in districts that don’t traditionally support the party.

“Those seats will be hard to hold,” he said. “Those districts are not blue districts.”

Texas Republican Chairman James Dickey said he is confident that his party will maintain control of the state, despite perceived Democratic gains.

“The fact of the matter is, Democrats running in Texas have to show that their liberal policies fit in with Texas values, and it just isn’t the case,” he said in a statement, noting that the party is already preparing for the 2020 presidential election.

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Amaris Torres, 8, holds a sign supporting democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican Ted Cruz, during an event in which O'Rourke speaks to supporters at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds in Robstown on Thursday, November 1, 2018.(Photo: Rachel Denny Clow/Caller-Times)

But Democratic strategist Harold Cook said Tuesday’s results mean that both parties have to re-evaluate their strategy when it comes to their representation.

Instead of looking to represent the narrow slice of the electorate who vote in March primaries, Cook said officials will have to work to widen their appeal.

"What I hope Tuesday showed is that voting in a general election actually matters," Cook said. "What's been missing from our politics for way too long is actually talking to people other than the tiny percentage of people who show up to vote in primary.

"I hope that changes the nature of the debate so that they will start focusing on issues that matter to people's lives instead of the wedge issues that only divide people.”