.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE TROUGH PUSHINGTOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TODAY`S MODELS ARE A LITTLESLOWER WITH THE STORM THAN YESTERDAY BY NEARLY 6 HOURS. THE ARRIVALTIME OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED NOW LOOKS TO HIT THENORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY AROUND NOON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILLTHEN PUSH INTO THE LOS ANGELES AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. THEFORECAST TIMING MAY NEED TO GET PUSHED BACK ACCORDINGLY. THE LATESTMODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS MAY NOT BEQUITE AS HIGH AS EARLIER INDICATED...ALTHOUGH PRETTY DARN CLOSE. THELATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEADOF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OROGRAPHICPRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH FACING SLOPES. WITH SLOWER TIMING OF THESTORM...THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAYNIGHT...SO THE WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO ASLIGHTLY LATER PERIOD SUCH AS THURSDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. THURSDAYNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS THE FAVORED TIME FOR WINTERDRIVING CONDITIONS...INCLUDING MODERATE SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COLDTEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 6000 FEETLATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO 4000 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAYMORNING. THEREFORE...THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WILL BE VULNERABLE TOWINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS THE RATHER FASTMOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALLTOTALS...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM COULD STILL OVERWHELM ASHORTER PRECIPITATION DURATION. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...RAINFALLTOTALS FOR THE STORM SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE HALF INCH TO NEARLYONE AND ONE HALF INCHES. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE STORM WILLBRING TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIQUIDPRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE COLD AND SHOWERY WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS INUNSTABLE AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND WILL SHOW SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURESUNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGHIN THE SERIES WILL ATEMPT TO BRING RAIN DOWN TO THE NORTHERNPORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALLAMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH DUE TO A MOREINLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION...21/2350ZSTRATUS SURGING TOWARD SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AIRFIELDS NORTH OF KOXRWILL BE UNDER MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHER AIRFIELDSWILL DODGE CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL BE PRIMED FOR ANEARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CIGS WILL BE ONTHE HIGH SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR ABOVE 020 THE WORST THATSHOULD BE EXPECTED. MARINE LAYER WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...BUTMOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOSTLY VFR CIGS AROUND.RAIN WILL BEGIN NORTH OF KSBA AFTER 14Z...WITH THE MAIN BAND NEARKPRB BY 17Z.

KLAX WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WESTERLY SEABREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.CIGS SHOULD RETURN EARLIER...AROUND 06Z...WITH A WINDOW BETWEEN 03ZAND 08Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 020...AND GO ABOVE 030 JUST AFTERSUNRISE. RAIN SHOULD NOT BEGIN THU UNTIL AFTER 20Z.

KBUR WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VIS AFTER 07Z...WITH A WINDOW OF ONSETBETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.