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Analysis under Vehicle-Pedalcyclist Risk Scenario Based on Comparison between Real Accident and Naturalistic Driving Data 2018-01-1048

This paper constructs the Accident Crash Scenarios(ACSs) classification system based on the traffic accident data collected by the traffic management department in a Chinses city from 2013 to 2015. The classification system selects four influenced variables on the basis of Critical Driving Scenarios(CDSs) in Naturalistic Driving Data. The proportions of each variable are analyzed, and all ACSs are divided into 48 scenarios. The highest proportion of nine ACSs are extracted from all 10596 ACSs, and the result shows the ACSs involved Car-Pedalcyclist occupy the top four scenarios, and the scenarios involved intersection situations are worth attention. Pedalcyclists include bicyclists, motorcyclists, tri-cyclists and electric bicyclists. Multivariate Logistic Regression(MLR) analysis is then used to study the ACSs involved the type of Car-Pedalcyclist. Of all impact factors obtained from the classification system, two are found most significantly associated with the ACSs involved Car-Pedalcyclist, which is namely weather and road type. The data from Naturalistic Driving Studies(NDS) project executed in Shanghai are extracted then, The highest proportion of seven CDSs are also extracted from all 489 CDSs based on 37 Pre-crash topology defined by NHTSA. The comparison between ACSs and CDSs of high proportion confirms the risk scenarios involved Car-Pedalcyclist is relatively typical, the possibility of occurring the ACSs is relatively high. Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method(DREAM) was used to analyze which induced factors are more likely to lead to accidents under the scenarios involved Car-Pedalcyclist in intersection. The result shows Too late actions and Too high speed are two induced factors of top two critical levels, Misjudgment and Expectance of certain behaviors are responsible for these two induced factors. Studies of comparison on impact factors of risk scenarios involved Car-Pedalcyclist in ACSs and CDSs are few in China. Research in this paper may contribute significantly for the improvement of road traffic safety in China.