Looting as Counterinsurgency Strategy

by Alex Steffenon February 22, 2011

John Robb, networked insurgency expert (and Worldchanging book contributor) has posted some really astute observations about Egypt, including this description of looting as counter-insurgency in service of regime survival:

* De-escalate. No confrontation in the streets. Withdraw police from the streets. Change the government (fire everyone) and appoint new people.* Misdirect. Re-focus on looting (property crime). Initiate looting through the use of security forces in civilian garb (reports of this). Make the people feel unsafe/scared. Increase levels of chaos. Open the doors of the prisons (reports of this). Make it seem like the entire country is burning/falling apart.* Militarize. Bring in the military to control key intersections and protect key buildings. Increasingly, focus the military on stoping property crime and violence. Realign government to increase ties to military.* Wait. The protests will continue. However, with the fear of violence removed and people unable to take over key buildings, Mubarak and his cronies remain. The protests eventually diminish.* Lock Down. The police return, with military backing. The secret police begin to ratchet up operations to re-establish a fear of the government.

Interestingly, Robb doesn’t think the strategy can now succeed: “The question is: will it work? A decade ago, certainly. Today? No way. Too much backchannel.”