BUDAPEST — With one year to go until Hungary’s next parliamentary election, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s greatest worry may not be pro-democracy protests or criticism from Brussels, but the influence of a man who knows him better than almost anyone else.

Oligarch Lajos Simicska, who went to high school with Orbán in the 1970s and later helped transform the Fidesz party from a group of university dormmates to the dominant force in Hungarian politics, has thrown his support behind the far-right Jobbik party.

“All my sympathies are with Jobbik,” the millionaire, who fell out with Orbán in 2014, told Hungarian news magazine HVG in April. “This is a stinking criminal gang that must go,” he said of his former friends, adding that if Jobbik does not defeat Fidesz, no one will.

Hungarians have come to refer to the rivalry as “the Orbán-Simicska war.”

But for Fidesz, the fight with Simicska is existential. Orbán’s political strategy over the past months has been to focus on refugee quotas. This approach has helped Fidesz keep liberal and left-leaning opponents weak, but cannot help Orbán compete with the equally anti-refugee far-right. Plagued by corruption scandals, Fidesz — which has been in power for seven years — is vulnerable to forces presenting themselves as outsiders.

Simicska did not answer multiple requests for comment for this article.

His change of allegiance is obvious in the streets of Budapest. Much of the city — indeed, much of the country — was plastered with Jobbik party billboards over the past few weeks, featuring straightforward slogans such as “You work. They steal.”

‘Democratic again’

The campaign is financed by Simicska — who owns a major billboard company, along with a media and construction empire — and targets mainstream voters by portraying Jobbik as the people’s party. Its efforts to compete with both Fidesz and left-wing parties revolve around its anti-corruption stance and focus on everyday economic issues like wages.

With Fidesz’s popularity declining in the polls — the party has lost about half a million supporters so far this year, falling from 37 to 31 percent — and Jobbik taking aim at his credibility, there are signs that Orbán is nervous. If elections were held today, Fidesz would still be likely to win, but the prime minister is aware that many Hungarians — about 30 percent — are undecided. Jobbik’s popularity, meanwhile, has risen from 10 to 14 percent among all eligible Hungarian voters, according to polling firm Median.

Fidesz showed its lack of confidence in early June, when the Hungarian tax authority opened an investigation into Simicska’s billboard company. On June 23, after weeks of legislative maneuvering, parliament passed a law making it more difficult for political parties to receive discounted advertising space — designed to significantly limit Simicska’s ability to continue featuring Jobbik on his billboards across the country.

The far-right party has vowed to challenge the new law’s constitutionality.

“Jobbik does not receive any support from Lajos Simicska,” the party’s leader, Gábor Vona, told POLITICO in an email. But the far-right politician added a caveat: “We have met twice so far at public events where we had a talk. There is one thing we agree on: Hungary must be made a democratic country again.”

‘The smartest among us’

Like Orbán, Simicska was involved with the Fidesz party since the time of its founding in 1988. Until a few years ago, his name was nearly synonymous with that of Fidesz.

“Lajos was the smartest among us,” Orbán said in a 1988 interview.

A sophisticated political operative, Simicska shied away from the limelight. For the more than 25 years he was involved with the party, Hungarian media struggled to even get a photo of him. The eminence grise of Hungarian politics, Simicska almost never granted interviews.

“He was a strategist, organizer and chess-player type,” said Sándor Léderer, director of Hungarian anti-corruption watchdog K-Monitor, adding that Simicska had acted as a mentor to Orbán in their younger years.

Simicska quickly became the party’s money-man, responsible for securing funding for its operations. To develop Fidesz’s political machine, he also helped to found media outlets and other companies.

“The very Machiavellian approach of Fidesz comes partly from his approach,” said Léderer.

But the increasingly powerful Simicska was far from popular among his colleagues.

Simicska “was feared and disliked” within the party, said a senior Fidesz official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“He was a misanthrope,” said the official, recalling that Simicska rarely showed up to Fidesz social gatherings and only had three or four allies in the party. “He was very close with Orbán.”

It was this personal relationship with Orbán, established in their teenage years, that enabled Simicska’s rise. When Orbán — known to prize loyalty above all else — first became prime minister in 1998, he chose to appoint his friend Simicska the sensitive position of head of Hungary’s internal revenue service.

Simicska “was feared and disliked” within the party, said a senior Fidesz official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

When Fidesz returned to power in 2010, Simicska’s media and construction empire boomed. According to Transparency International Hungary, in 2013, 11 percent of the value of public contracts went to companies connected to four Fidesz-affiliated individuals, with Simicska the most favored among them. That year alone, a construction company owned by Simicska won over 17 percent of tenders issued by the National Development Authority.

By 2014, Simicska’s allies held posts across the government administration. Politicians and business people looking to get their hands on a piece of the pie had to go through him, and he controlled what Hungarians read and saw on their television screens every morning.

Too powerful

But while distributing patronage among his closest allies is part of Orbán’s governing strategy, Simicska’s influence began to make him uncomfortable.

“Orbán was scared. … Simicska was getting too powerful,” said Attila Juhász, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute.

Orbán’s fear that his old friend could present a threat to his own power led to a dramatic falling out, although the two sides differ in their retelling of what triggered the conflict.

The growing tensions burst out into the open in early 2015, when Simicska’s pro-Orbán employees resigned en masse and the oligarch — who for years had avoided the public stage — gave an expletive-laden interview about the prime minister in which he made his feelings toward his old friend very clear, describing him using a colorful expletive.

Orbán’s fear that his old friend could present a threat to his own power led to a dramatic falling out.

The conflict with Orbán had real financial consequences for Simicska, who lost millions as his companies began failing in government tenders and his media outlets no longer got state advertising.

In response, the oligarch turned his focus to preserving his business interests — and weakening Orbán in any way he can.

“Converting economic power into political power and political power back into economic power, that’s what matters to Simicska — he doesn’t care much about ideology,” said Juhász.

Not your typical feud

While Simicska has attempted to boost Jobbik’s position by supporting their billboard campaign, he doesn’t shy away from supporting causes on the other end of the political spectrum if doing so will undermine Orbán’s interests.

In late April, journalists at independent liberal-leaning news site Index found out that Simicska had bought the site and transferred ownership to an association partially controlled by his associates. Index reporters agree Simicska hasn’t interfered with their work thus far. Instead, his move is widely seen as an effort to prevent Fidesz-allies from taking control of the popular outlet.

Orbán’s allies, meanwhile, have worked hard over the past months to publicly discredit Simicska and his associates.

But many observers believe that Orbán’s conflict with Simicska is not just your typical political feud. As both sides attempt to delegitimize one another, their decades-long friendship and joint involvement with a party known for a vast range of corrupt dealings create the risk of mutually assured destruction.

But many observers believe that Orbán’s conflict with Simicska is not just your typical political feud.

For now, Fidesz is opting to answer Simicska’s campaign by turning accusations of corruption back on the oligarch. But as competition intensifies ahead of next spring’s parliamentary election, the fight is likely to get dirtier.

“As long as I’m here […] I’ll continue the war,” Simicska warned after his falling out with Orbán. For Fidesz, the full implications of Simicska’s threat are now coming full circle.

Related stories on these topics:

glasspix 1

Far from mutually assured destruction, this conflict is great for Hungarian democracy. Voters are keeping Orban on the tip of his toes by swinging between the Centre-right and the right, while the liberal left sinks into deeper oblivion.
By the way, yes, Fidesz had been involved in a number of corruption scandals, but it is also the party that have got Hungary rid of Communists from the East, and is in the process of doing the same with Communists from the West.

Posted on 6/28/17 | 7:15 AM CEST

Árpád Magosányi

Actually Fidesz did not got rid of communists. Lots of them have high positions in the party and its economic conglomerate. Also its political messages are increasingly similar to those of the communist dictatorship. Meanwhile they are also moving fast to the far right. Which leaves Hungarian voters with two major options, both of them nationalistic.
On a bit brighter side, Jobbik seems to go towards the centre. Right now they have managed to be less nazi than Fidesz on the level of political messages, but their voter base and reflexes of their politicians make those messages very suspect.
Also, liberalism have killed itself only in party politics, thankfully. Most of the non-partisan political activists are along the lines of green liberalism, and there is a new, fast-growing party (Momentum), with marked conservative liberal messaging.

Posted on 6/28/17 | 8:55 AM CEST

stan

Fidesz declining in the polls to 30% is just an another alternative “politico-fact” akin to “200.000 rally against goverment” in Warsaw last year. Recent polls for Fidesz: Iránytű: 51%, Nézőpon: 44%, ZRI : 40%, Századvég: 47%
Good night and good luck.

Posted on 6/28/17 | 9:48 AM CEST

Dude

Dear Lili,

Nice article, but you found the worst interviewees ever:
– Political Capital is one of the most corrupt political research institutes in Hungary. They misappropriated billions of public funds under the previous governments.
– K-Monitor is not a genuine NGO. Their projects have a bad track record and zero social impact. Only a small minority of people know them in Budapest.

It’s hard to find non-biased sources in Hungary, but it’s not impossible…

Posted on 6/28/17 | 10:18 AM CEST

Dude

Stan:

Think before you post out of context data. Please learn to read polls…

Posted on 6/28/17 | 10:32 AM CEST

hoba

Dear Dude,
I think you raised a very important question here. I do not understand either how journalists pick their sources. The problem with Political Capital is not only their cozy connections with former governments, but also I doubt on their knowledge. In 2010 after collapse of government parties, the political vacuum helped every oppositional parties even the hardly organized greens were hoovered into the parliament. Except one, MDF, the party which was advised by PC, they were actually fallen out of the parliament. I don’t think there is any better proof that PC completely misinterpreted the political developments in Hungary. Still, not only Politico but also Economist uses them as the most important source for Hungary. Why?

Posted on 6/28/17 | 11:56 AM CEST

nuke orbán

so many fidesz shills in this comment section…

Posted on 6/28/17 | 12:06 PM CEST

Vikor Rogan

Got rid of the communists? He is bringing them back (and intensifying the corruption) with his new, absolute not necessary, nuclear power plant, which with about 85% of the population disagrees. There was a referendum about the refugees, but can NOT be one about the [russian] nuclear power plant….

Posted on 6/28/17 | 1:16 PM CEST

BleakFuture

What a Banana Republic this country has become! Greedy, corrupt, criminal, big egoed, incompetent… you name it. The likes of Puszta-Putin Orbán, Simicska, Vona, Gyurcsány, Botka will just drive Hungary further down the drain!

It seems as if Hungary had just always been better off, when it was foreign ruled…like the Habsburgs.

Posted on 6/28/17 | 4:14 PM CEST

PoorGirl

Simicska is nuts. Orbán detto.

Posted on 6/29/17 | 1:10 AM CEST

guilherme

BleakFuture,
Hungary was better off as an independent kingdom in the X. – XIV. centuries. What ruined Hungary was the foreign rule including the Ottomans, later the Habsburgs, Moscow. Therefore are they resistant to dirigism from Brussels. Read something about Hungarian history.

Posted on 6/29/17 | 2:47 AM CEST

BleakFuture

@guilherme
Hungary has agreed to follow EU rules when it became an EU member state. Therefore there logically can’t be any “dirigism from Brussels”! You already seem to have digested some of the propaganda buddy! Hungary is also free to leave the EU at any time, “Brussels” wouldn’t send tanks to Budapest… maybe just a bouquet of flowers as a Thank You!

Also, no need to lecture people about Hungarian history… precisely because I know it, I will state here again that Hungary was likely always best off when it was foreign ruled!!! But one must first learn life’s lesson not to trust Hungarian history books to much…

Posted on 6/29/17 | 5:59 AM CEST

Magyar Lazac

If the Simicska-Orban fight is really nothing more than a feud between personalities bereft of public policy positions to advance the people’s welfare and standing in the world, it would be better to ignore it and let them perform their ‘cage wrestling’ act in some other arena than the parliamentary election.

I hope there is enough time left for the advancement of concrete policies from divergent political activists to provide meaningful choices for the electorate to voice their opinions as to who should govern.

Posted on 6/29/17 | 3:30 PM CEST

guilherme

BleakFuture,
I am an ethnic Hungarian from a region what today belongs to a neighbour of Hungary. Our family has a long “life´s lesson” including expulsions, confiscations etc. My grandfather was born and lived part of his life in Austria -Hungary, what I know about Hungarian history is not only from books, but personal experiences also. Me as many other ethnic Hungarians live under foreign rule so I know what does it mean.