VICTORIA - As large numbers of New Democratic Party MLAs announced their retirements in advance of what proved to be an electoral wipeout in 2001, the B.C. Liberals, then in Opposition, couldn’t help indulging in a bit of gloating.

“The government is disintegrating right before our very eyes,” said then Opposition leader Gordon Campbell. “A pathetic state of affairs,” chorused Liberal MLA Kevin Krueger.

The lip-smacking tone should be kept in mind now that the Liberals have begun making their way to the exits in advance of next year’s provincial election.

Murray Coell, the four-term MLA for Saanich North and the Islands, Wednesday became the latest government member to take himself out of the running for the May 14, 2013, vote.

He joined four other future inductees into the ex-Liberal MLAs club, Harry Bloy, Kash Heed, Dave Hayer and Kevin Krueger, he of the aforementioned reference to the inherent pathos of parties beset by multiple retirements while trailing in the opinion polls.

Two other Liberals MLAs, Barry Penner and Iain Black, have already resigned their seats, subjecting their party to decisive byelection losses that it could ill afford. Including Campbell, who resigned his seat when he gave up the office of premier to Christy Clark, eight of the 49 Liberals elected in 2009 are gone or going. One other, John van Dongen, defected to the Conservatives.

Looking back to the last time a B.C. government was in this much trouble this close to a provincial election, 15 incumbent NDP MLAs, about 40 per cent of the then government caucus, chose to retire rather than face the electorate in 2001.

The departed included two former premiers (Dan Miller and Glen Clark) and senior ministers Andrew Petter, Moe Sihota, Paul Ramsey and Penny Priddy. Among those MLAs who did run, only two survived the rout.

Go back another electoral cycle, and one finds that 15 Social Credit MLAs retired in advance of the 1991 election that spelled the end of their days as a governing party, indeed as a party in any capacity. Including three earlier resignations, about 40 per cent of the Socred caucus packed it in rather than face the wrath of the voters.

The Liberal exodus hasn’t yet reached those earlier levels. But with the election still 10 months away, I gather the party is preparing for as many as 20 departures among the 49 MLAs elected in 2009, including those already declared. If those numbers materialize, then the decampment rate would again be about 40 per cent.

Liberals likely to put themselves out to pasture include MLAs Colin Hansen, Randy Hawes, Ron Cantelon, Joan McIntyre and Gordon Hogg, all former cabinet ministers; plus Bill Barisoff, currently the Speaker of the legislature.

Most of the speculation is focused the big three at the cabinet table, Finance Minister Kevin Falcon, Education Minister George Abbott and Energy Minister Rich Coleman. All three have hinted, in more ways than one, that this might well be their last term, though in the case of once and probably future leadership candidate Falcon, one is obliged to quickly add “for now.”

Should they make official what many have rumoured, a second round of speculation focuses on whether Premier Clark would immediately replace them and with whom.

Gordon Campbell made it a practice to drop ministers who were not running again and replace them with backbenchers who were staying in the game.

But no hard and fast rule obliges premiers to rotate the ranks in that fashion. Even Campbell appeared to make an exception in the case of Geoff Plant, who was retained as the premier’s much-relied-upon attorney-general all the way through the 2005 election, even though he did not run again.

Similarly, one can readily imagine a scenario where Falcon announces in mid-fall that he’s going to take a break from the provincial political arena. Clark then asks him to stay on as finance minister to preside over and deliver the provincial budget that would be well into the preparation stages.

The larger challenge is to find candidates of equivalent stature or better to represent the party in the next provincial election. The Liberals say they are making progress at recruitment. But not so you’d notice.

The party tried to generate a bit of a buzz this week around the announcement of the would-be successor to Krueger in Kamloops-South Thompson. He’s Todd Stone, an experienced party organizer and founder of a successful software company.

Krueger won the seat by almost 20 percentage points last time, so if the provincial race tightens up, as many expect it will, Stone might well eke out a four-year ticket to Victoria. If not, at 40, he’s young enough to try again.

But in terms of star quality, he doesn’t presume to qualify. Nor is Clark, with her current troubles in the polls, likely to have much success in recruiting the kind of big names who have run for the party in the past.

More likely those who are called upon to lend some stature to Liberal Team 2013 will instead choose to join the caucus retirees in sitting this one out.

vpalmer@vancouversun.com

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Palmer: Liberals prepared for more MLAs to head for the hills rather than face voters

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