A Postelection Pump Bump?

By KEN BELSON

Published: November 9, 2008

SO you thought the worst was over at the pump? Think again, said David Blume, executive director of the International Institute for Ecological Agriculture.

Mr. Blume, who is an expert on ethanol, says that gasoline prices are poised to rise again now that the 2008 elections are out of the way.

After sifting through 20 years of data from the Energy Information Administration, Mr. Blume claims to have uncovered a pattern: ''Prior to each national election in the U.S., the price of oil plummets for a several-month cycle prior to November voting, and then immediately climbs back up to record-setting highs by about March 1 of the new year.''

His theory rests partly on the idea that incumbent politicians, not wanting to be blamed for rising gas prices, give oil companies concessions to keep prices down.

Mr. Blume appears to have gotten the first half of his claim correct: oil prices peaked in July and have declined steadily since then. What role the national elections played is unclear, though; the widespread economic turmoil has slowed demand in the United States and around the world.

A day after Barack Obama was elected president, the average price for a gallon of gas in New York City went down, not up, falling 1.5 cents to $2.825 on Wednesday, according to the AAA's Fuel Gauge Report. A month ago, the price was $3.68.