At the beginning of this week, a poll suggested the NDP was leading the BC Liberals by 22 points. Then another poll suggested a 10-point NDP lead. Then a third poll suggested four points. Then another suggested eight points. Then another one suggested seven.

Pollsters in High Stakes Race, Too

Contests, events & more from Tyee and select partners

We’re upping the ante to support our BC election reporting, and there’s still time to join us.

Given that information, which of the following statements best matches your view:

I believe all these results.
I believe none of these results.
There's too damn many polls.

On Thursday, Forum Research released a poll that suggested the New Democrats' lead over the governing BC Liberals has fallen to four points. The Forum poll was followed later in the day by one from Insights West that suggested the NDP leads by eight points among decided voters. Then Angus Reid weighed in with a poll that suggested a seven-point NDP lead.

For a start, most of these results fall within the range of the polls' margins of error. The one outlier is the 22-point Justason poll, which was conducted April 15-23 -- about a week before the other results. Things can change quickly during an election campaign; the dates a poll was taken are a key factor.

To see the Tyee's table showing 17 polls going back to mid-January of this year, click on this Election Hook item published late last evening.

Next time you read a poll, arm yourself

Everyone has their own poll, it seems, and there often seems to be precious little agreement among them. Here are some resources that can help the average political junkie make sense out of all these numbers.

This helpful article was written during the October 2011 Ontario election, when poll results were – surprise – bouncing all over the place. Reporter Tamsin McMahon talks to the experts about why this kind of thing happens.

This lengthy 2001 article, a Queen's University professor and a pollster, is a bit dated when it comes to the methods pollsters use to contact voters -- phone calls from live operators, automated calls, online panels -- but it contains much helpful information for anyone trying to understand the procedures and pitfalls of polling.

There are also a number of polling resources aimed at journalists. Not all journalists pay attention to the principles they lay out, but an interested news consumer can learn a lot from them. Online stories should contain a link to a poll's methodology. Take a look at the information the pollster makes public and think about the questions provided in these resources.

This guide was put together by Canada's national news agency and the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, a polling industry trade group. "One key factor" for deciding if a poll is valid, this guide states, "is whether the firm belongs to a self-regulatory association" like, um, the MRIA. While membership can be a guide to evaluating a pollster, it should be noted that some reputable Canadian pollsters do not belong to the MRIA for principled reasons.

One hot topic in polling involves, as we suggested above, the different methods being used. Some pollsters use telephone banks with live operators to call potential respondents. Others use an automated system called Interactive Voice Technology, sometimes known by the unflattering term of "robocalling." Other pollsters draw their respondents by email from panels of people who have volunteered to be interviewed.

Get The Tyee in your inbox

Your privacy is important to us.

When subscribing to a newsletter edition you'll also get early notice on Tyee events, news, promotions, partner messages and special initiatives.

Further to the provision of the Personal Information Protection Act, personal information is kept confidential by TheTyee.ca and will not be sold, traded, released, shared or distributed to any other individuals, organizations or agencies without prior consent or notification.

Measures have been enacted to ensure the integrity of personal information and to protect it from misuse, loss or alteration. All information submitted to The Tyee is only available to employees or sub-contractors who are bound by agreement with The Tyee to keep the information private. E-mail addresses are only used for the purposes of Tyee-related correspondence or comment moderation.

If you have concerns related to your privacy please contact us at info@thetyee.ca