Abstract [en]

Judicious modeling of an energy system can help provide insights as to how elements of the energy system might be configured in the longer term. The current and future electricity and water desalination systems of each GCC country were represented using a full-cost based optimization tool called MESSAGE and the following scenarios were examined:

1. The business as usual scenario (BAU): current energy system is extended into the future without any changes. The energy system structure and characteristics are kept the same. The fuel prices are also kept at the current subsidized levels.

2 - The netback-pricing scenario: all fuel costs are increased to the international market price. The freed amount of fuel is assumed to be available for export to the international market. Moreover, this scenario examines different carbon tax options of 0, 20,30 ,40 and 50 dollars per kilo tons of CO2 emissions.

3 - The Nuclear hub scenario: examines the idea of a “nuclear hub” state for the GCC region that can have all the “know-how” and logistics to provide sufficient nuclear energy for the GCC through the Interconnection Grid “GCCIG”.

Results shows that fossil fuels will continue to play an important role in a least cost future for the region. This is due, in no small part, to the cheap natural gas resources in the GCC. Despite the high renewable energy technologies potential, their penetration – given the study assumptions - proved to be important, but limited in the GCC. On the other hand, nuclear energy shows clear economic potential.