Friday, 2 June 2017

Trump - Saviour or Poison Chalice

The visit to Israel by US President Donald Trump has come and gone,
and the analysts will undoubtedly still spend some time considering
their verdicts dissecting each aspect of the visit. At first glance,
the visit appears to have been filled with symbolism but short on
substance. Following a turbulent first few months in office for the US
president, there are many who wonder whether his support for Israel is
welcome, or whether it is turning out to be more of a poison chalice
than a helping hand.

Trump has been openly and publicly
supportive of Israel's position, even from before he was elected. His
high profile campaign promise to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to
Jerusalem has been the subject of much debate and controversy. When his
victory in the presidential election was revealed, the Israeli
government (and many other Israelis) welcomed his election with the hope
and expectation that this would change the anti-Israel bias within the
US government and elsewhere that was such a feature of the Obama
administration. And changes have certainly been felt since his
election.

The current atmosphere at the United Nations
is entirely different from the one that ruled during 2016 and before.
Part of this change can be attributed to new UN Secretary General
António Guterres, who is much less inclined to entertain the constant
barrage of anti-Israel sentiment that prevailed under Ban Ki Moon. Much
of the change is, however, thanks to new US ambassador to the UN Nikki
Haley and the change in policy that she represents. She has imposed the
Trump administration's support for Israel at the UN in the strongest
possible terms. The days of raising frivolous anti-Israel resolutions
at the UN Security Council are over for now. The international
community has understood that these will be vetoed by the US, and that
there is little point in raising them under the current administration.
Haley has been vociferous in her condemnation of the constant attempts
to paint Israel in a negative light. There can be little doubt that the
changes at the UN have a great deal to do with the new man in the White
House.

President Trump's visit to Israel was highly
symbolic. He made Israel one of the stops on his maiden foreign tour
since becoming president. He visited the Western Wall in Jerusalem
during his visit, becoming the first US president to make this visit
while in office. He emphasized to Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas that funding terror is not acceptable. He reinforced the
support that Israel will always enjoy from his administration. In spite
of this, he stayed clear of the key substantive issues confronting
Israel and the region now. He did not raise the move of the US embassy
to Jerusalem. No mention was made of the constant accusations against
Israel regarding construction in Judea and Samaria. Nothing was said
about Palestinian claims to Jerusalem, or accusations regarding Israel's
claims to Jerusalem as its capital. His outward shows of support were
all seized upon, recognised and appreciated by the majority of
Israelis. The lack of meaningful progress in getting Israelis and
Palestinians to sit down around the peace table is what the
international community has seized upon.

The issue
that Israel needs to consider is Trump's overall standing within the USA
and further afield. It was clear before he arrived in Israel that
Trump has many enemies at home, and that they are determined to keep him
on the back foot by levelling all types of accusations against him.
Trump's own conduct in defending these accusations has certainly not
helped his cause. And Israel was dragged into the crossfire when Trump
was accused of sharing secret intelligence received from Israel with
Russia. If true, this would be a serious violation of trust, and norms
associated with the sharing of intelligence information.

Distrust
for Trump appears to be spreading rapidly within the international
community as well. Trump's recent appearances at the G7 and NATO
meetings did not show him to be in accord with any of the other western
leaders. On the contrary, there are indications that Trump is being
sidelined from the key international organisations.

Winston
Churchill famously said, “Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go
to hell in such a way that they ask for directions.” This is an art
that Trump has clearly not yet mastered. Even though Trump frequently
says things that many people are thinking, he has not yet discovered how
to say it in a way that does not create enemies. While Israel has no
particular issue with Trump's popularity (or lack of it) in the
international community, there is a danger that Israel will be tarred
with the same negative brush if she is seen to be too closely associated
with Trump.

There is no doubt that Israel has already
gained a great deal from the change of administration in the White
House. Trump's influence over US domestic and international policy
towards Israel, and his influence over proceedings at the UN cannot be
under-estimated. Israel will certainly wish to see more of that in the
future. There is a danger, however, that the association with Trump
could prove to be negative in Israel's relationships with other
countries around the world. If Trump continues to completely ignore the
accepted rules of international engagement while representing his
contrary views, he will quickly became a pariah in the international
community. And, even if Israel wishes to stay close to Trump to benefit
from his supportive views and actions, the association with him may
proved negative.

The prime minister and the Israeli
government has a tough job to navigate a careful path to take advantage
of the emerging situation, without losing too much in the process. Will
Trump prove to be the good things for Israel that were predicted, or a
poison chalice? Only time will tell.

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Being a person who holds strong views on many subjects, particularly on matters relating to Israel and the Middle East, this blog gives me the perfect forum to express my opinions. Feedback is always welcome.

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