Coronavirus could change where students go to college, if they go at all

Chris Quintana USA TODAY

Tuesday

Apr 14, 2020 at 8:39 AM

Zach Klein wanted to go to college in a major city. The high school senior lives in Princeton, New Jersey, but he wanted to feel the energy of a big metro area. He was considering schools such as Fordham University in New York City and Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C.

Now that the coronavirus outbreak is underway, Klein, 17, is wishing he had applied to a wider variety of schools, specifically those in rural areas that might be less affected by the virus. He is glad, though, that he applied to his mother’s alma mater, Miami University in Ohio. It initially wasn’t high on his list, but now he is reconsidering.

After all, he said, what’s the point of living in a bustling city if he can never leave his dorm under a quarantine?

Klein joins thousands of students around the country rethinking their fall 2020 college decision — or wondering whether they’ll be able to go to college this fall at all. Their sundry reasons, according to surveys by college advisory groups, include a desire to be closer to home, disrupted financial situations and concerns that another semester may go digital-only.

Students’ enrollment decisions are only one way the coronavirus could dramatically remake American higher education. Institutions are in damage-control mode, trying to offer courses online while recruiting their future classes. They’re hurting financially as they offer students refunds for housing, meal plans and even parking permits. In extreme cases, like the San Francisco Art Institute or MacMurray College in Jacksonville, Illinois, institutions have announced they will not admit new students or plan to wind down current operations. Others are freezing new hires or laying off contract workers.

Higher education was ripe for a remake. Before the virus hit, college had never been more expensive, and the nation’s ever-increasing student loan debt was raising questions about the value of college. The economic freefall and uncertainty from the virus have families questioning expensive tuition even more.

Moody's Investors Service had already dinged the American higher education system earlier this year, but last week it issued an even more grim diagnosis. The agency wrote in a news release that it expected student enrollment to be down in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, Australia and Singapore through the next year due to coronavirus. That would mean less money for colleges to pay professors and administrators and run thriving, beautiful campuses.

The ratings agency also warned that endowments and gift-giving may decline. With declining economies, states may have less money to fund universities, Moody’s said. And, it said, the pandemic may keep international students, with their high tuition rates, at home.

Concerns about finances, and financial aid

Universities will get a fuller picture of enrollment starting on May 1, traditionally the deadline for students to accept a college’s offer. Some colleges have pushed that back to June 1 amid the pandemic.

But early signs point to more students staying home or postponing college. The percent of students completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly known as the FAFSA, have declined in recent weeks.

As of April 3, the rate of FAFSA completion was down 2% compared with last year at the same time, said Bill DeBaun, the director of data & evaluation at the National College Attainment Network, which tracks how many students have completed their FAFSA. The percentage dropped in the past three weeks, about the same time many high schools shut down in-person classes, and it dropped most steeply in schools that serve low-income students. Some high schools help students fill out these forms, and without them, students can’t be eligible for the financial aid many would need to go to college.

“If you’re a student and you have any intention at all of enrolling in the fall or the next academic year, I would encourage you to complete the FAFSA so you have an understanding of what federal financial aid may be available to you,” DeBaun said.

Many families who already were counting on financial aid may see their incomes decline due to the disruptions to the economy, putting more pressure on their finances. More aid could be available, said Justin Draeger, CEO of the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

Colleges, he said, do have the ability to adjust how much money a family is expected to pay, so students should call their college’s financial aid office. However, some aid, whether from the college or the state, is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, so it might already be allocated.

Colleges may try to recruit students away from competitors

Even before the coronavirus complicated college recruiting, admissions were going to be more competitive this year. That change is thanks to the Department of Justice’s antitrust investigation into the trade group that governs ethical admissions practices among colleges, the National Association of College Admissions Counseling.

A key change under NACAC’s deal with the Department of Justice: Colleges now are allowed to reach out to students who applied to their institution, but ultimately chose another college. The result? Colleges can try to encourage students to transfer to their institution or change their initial admissions decision, even after they’ve put down a deposit.

“People use the word ‘poach,’ and I have been trying to come up with another word,” said Jayne Caflin Fonash, president of NACAC and an independent college counselor.

The spread of coronavirus adds more unpredictability to an already-competitive recruitment cycle. The traditional campus visits, which many students use to make their final college choice, aren’t possible and have been replaced with digital options instead. Some students will wait until June 1 to pick a college, possibly with a better picture of the pandemic outlook.

The uncertainty around college enrollment could continue. Fonash questioned how recruitment would work in the fall. It’s unclear, she said, if recruiters and prospective students will be able to travel or if they will have to stick with digital options.

One boon for prospective students: Many universities have waived their requirement for prospective students to submit scores from the ACT or SAT standardized tests. “It will relieve the stress and anxiety for a number of students,” Fonash said.

The next round of cancellations? New-student orientation

Students who do decide to try to go to college, assuming coronavirus restrictions have been relaxed, may face more uncertainty. Some colleges have already canceled summer orientation, increasing the possibility that a student could be visiting a school for the first time this fall.

Loyola University, a private school in Baltimore, usually hosts its new student orientation in person in mid-summer, but Eric Nichols, the vice president for enrollment management, said the university moved that session online. The college has also connected prospective students with current students, financial aid administrators and faculty members.

“It doesn't replace being on campus in person,” he said. “But especially for a lot of families who have already been on campus once, it's been very helpful.”

Nichols said the university also admitted a slightly larger class than normal to make up for the fact that some students who were accepted may decide not to attend. But Nichols said he was more concerned about “summer melt” – students who have committed to the university but then change their mind. He said some students may go to multiple orientations since they don’t have to attend in person, and that may mean they take more time to make their final decision.

Community colleges: A popular choice?

One group of colleges could benefit from the economic crisis: community colleges.

Often in times of economic recession, more people enroll in college to improve their employment prospects.

Even before the crisis, Joseph Castro, president of California State University, Fresno, had noticed an uptick of students applying to the state’s community college system. He suspects that many students and families worried about the cost of college have chosen that option, especially as the national conversation around free community college has grown louder in recent years. (Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders had proposed some form of free college as part of their Democratic presidential platforms.)

Castro sees that trend continuing as a result of the pandemic. And he said parents and students may find value in starting at a community college and then transferring to a public regional university like Fresno, which are often cheaper than more selective universities.

“That's a great thing for our society. It will lower debt levels and potentially provide more access,” Castro said.

But all of those projections rely on students enrolling in the fall.

Klein, the New Jersey senior, said he is going so far as to consider a gap year. His intention isn’t to gallivant around the globe. Rather, he wants the “best college experience.” What that looks like in the time of coronavirus remains to be seen.

Education coverage at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Gates Foundation does not provide editorial input.

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