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Stay tuned for the epicenter of earnings tonight, as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), GoPro (GPRO), VMware (VMW), and iRobot (IRBT) combine for one of the busiest afternoons of the June reporting season.

Taking them one by one:

Apple is expected to report$49.36 billion in revenue and $1.81 per share in net income. Analysts are modeling iPhone sales as high as 50 million; some hope for comments about Apple Watch sales, but that seems unlikely.

Microsoft will be the most complex report today. The Street expects the company to report $22.05 billion and 58 cents, though that is a non-GAAP number, given that last quarter included a $7.6 billion non-cash write-down for impairment to goodwill in the company’s mobile devices business. On a GAAP basis, the company may report a loss in the neighborhood of 40 cents a share. And the outlook for the current quarter is in the context of a deferral of revenue for the impending Windows 10 release; more on the relevant accounting matters can be found in a Microsoft deck of slides prepared to help the Street make sense of it all.

Yahoo! is projected to report $1.03 billion and 18 cents per share, although there’s apparently a whisper number of 19 cents per share. Among recent commentary, Axiom Capital‘s Victor Anthony points out while most are expecting an in-line report, “Investors will be looking for confidence from management in its ability to secure a favorable IRS ruling [regarding the spin of Yahoo!'s Alibaba stake], as well as the timing of such a ruling, plus clarity on M&A post the spin.”

GoPro is expected to deliver $395 million in revenue and 26 cents per share, while one whisper number is apparently 32 cents a share. With the company yesterday unveiling a business of licensing content created by users, there will be even more discussion of the media business and GoPro’s promise to make it more and more a part of the company’s operations.

Linear is projected to report $385 million and 56 cents a share. This report follows the company’s warning about macroeconomic pressure back in April, and today, Oppenheimer & Co.’s Rick Schafer, a bull on the stock, thinks the expectations for the September quarter, $394 million, carries risk, “given general choppiness in the macro and mixed data points across aerospace and defense, comms and, more recently, automotive.”

Shares of Apple (AAPL) are down 79 cents, or 0.6%, at $131.28, heading to the company’s fiscal Q3 report after the closing bell this afternoon.

The Street is modeling $49.32 billion in revenue and $1.81 per share in net income. Apple usually includes a forecast for the current quarter in its press release, and the projection for that on the Street is for $50.86 billion and $1.86 per share.

Estimates have been on the march higher of late: The revenue number is above the $48.2 billion consensus as recently as May 29th.

FactSet’s breakdown of the consensus numbers for individual unit shipments of product are as follows:

47 million iPhone units

11 million iPads

5 million Macs

2 million iPods

However, there’s a wide variance between consensus and some recent estimates. As I noted yesterday, more ambitious estimates for iPhone, for example, lie more in the 48 million to 50 million-unit-range, and it’s possible some think even that is too light given what has been anecdotal evidence of strength in iPhone 6 sales.

iPad sales have been trending down, in the 9 million to 10 million range.

When Apple unveiled details of its Apple Watch earlier this year, it said it would be reporting results of the device as just part of its “Other” category of revenue, without saying whether it would ever break out results for unit shipments of the device.

With the Watch having gone on sale April 10th, and with various theories floating around about dwindling momentum for the device, many on the Street would like to have some quantification by the company of how it’s going, though there’s no certainty they will get that tonight. Estimates from various analysts for the June quarter have ranged from 3 million to 5 million.

One estimate today, a low one, comes from Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein Research, who thinks Watch sales have been just 3 million globally, below the 5 million estimate of market research firm Slice Intelligence, the same entity that raised doubt about the success of the device. At 3 million units, the Watch likely contributed $1.65 billion of revenue in the quarter, estimates Sacconaghi, assuming an average selling price of $550.

Sacconaghi offers some thoughts on guessing Watch sales within the Other category:

While Apple will not explicitly provide Watch sales data, it is expected to be included in “Other Products” revenue, a category which includes sales of Watch, iPod, Apple TV, and Accessories. We expect this category to ink $3.3B of sales – ($1.65B from Watch, and $1.65B from other products) – a materially higher or lower number would likely point to outperformance or underperformance in Watch sales relative to our expectations.

There’s been some chatter of late that wireless chip giant Qualcomm (QCOM) is preparing to announce layoffs when it reports fiscal Q3 earnings on Wednesday, after the closing bell.

I have no idea for certain whether the company will or will not. My own inquiry to the company was met with a “no comment” from a spokesperson.

However, when chatter of this sort repeatedly sounds the same — in this case, mentions of several thousand layoffs — it seems history has shown something of the kind does, indeed, turn out to be the case.

It wouldn’t be much of a surprise, perhaps: The company cut its year outlook on April 23rd, after a disappointing forecast for Q3, and said it would review its cost structure.

Qualcomm has been dealing with a couple of things that suggest cuts have to be made. One is pressure from activists Jana Partners, who in April suggested the company should split up its chipset and its licensing businesses into separate companies. Cost cuts might be one way to appease Jana, following an accelerated buyback planannounced in May 21st.

Moreover, the chip division and the licensing business have been under a variety of pressures.

The licensing business was forced by Chinese regulators in February to make concessions in its licensing terms. The chipset division lost a major chunk of business when customer Samsung Electronics (005930KS) decided to use its own processor in its flagship Galaxy S6 phone, throwing out Qualcomm’s part.

Following that development, there has been speculation of late that the company is being asked by Apple (AAPL) and other customers for price breaks on pasts. That comes as Qualcomm faces both continued competition from Taiwan’s MediaTek, and also the prospect that Intel may get its parts into the iPhone next year.

The chatter has already gotten one Street observer to start shifting expectations around: Mark Sue of RBC Capital Markets, reiterating an Outperform rating, and a $77 price target, late Monday wrote that “Qualcomm’s working through cost-optimization programs.”

If, he writes “head-count is reduced by 10% from 31k (F4Q14), our CY16E EPS could potentially rise from $5.15 to $5.60.”

Sue finds this enough reason to defend the stock:

Applying current stock multiple of 10x forward earnings (ex-cash), we could potentially see a $73 stock. Profit concentration at two smartphone makers eager to build their own integrated chipsets implies that the bulk of headcount reductions would come from QCT.

The company’s chipset sales will continue to be challenged:

Samsung, with Galaxy/Note device launches in Mar/Sep, tends to be a solid unit contributor for QCT, and missing out on both the S6 and upcoming Note-5 implies a meaningful lull in activity for QCT. Qualcomm’s working to make amends, yet it remains to be seen whether Qualcomm can regain Galaxy/Note chip business vs. internally developed Exynos. There’s adoption of Qualcomm’s leading chipsets at LG, HTC, and others, but most of these smartphone makers remain challenged, weighing on the QCT forecast.

With Apple (AAPL) set to report fiscal Q3 earnings tomorrow, after the closing bell, it’s not too late for some Wall Street observers to offer up their previews.

The Street is, on average, modeling revenue of $49.25 billion and EPS of $1.81.

The focus, no surprise, is iPhone, iPhone, iPhone, and what many see as upside persisting for tomorrow despite a raft of estimate increases in recent weeks.

Cantor Fitzgerald‘s Brian White, who has a Buy rating on the stock, and a $195 price target, is modeling $49.8 billion and $1.82, up from his prior estimate of $49.5 billion and $1.75, after raising iPhone estimates:

During our Taiwan trip in early June, many of our contacts highlighted weak trend across the smartphone and notebook markets; however, we walked away pleased the tone for iPhones and Macs relative to our expectations. Additionally, Apple’s iPhone momentum in China was again highlighted during our visit and we believe the upgrade cycle to a larger-sized iPhone is a multi-year event, while Apple is also expanding its reach across China with China Mobile, more online stores and an expanded retail store presence. For 3Q:FY15, we are raising our iPhone unit estimate to 48.5 million from 46.25 million given our expectation of stronger-than-anticipated demand for the iPhone 6/6 Plus, but lowering our iPad projection to 9.5 million from 10.9 million units due to the weakness in the iPad mini. We are maintaining our Mac shipment forecast at 4.93 million units but increasing our Mac forecast for the September quarter given strong demand for the new MacBook. Also, we are fine tuning our Apple Watch unit forecast in 3Q:FY15 to 2.97 million units from 2.83 million.

Piper Jaffray‘s Gene Munster, how has an Overweight rating on the stock, and a $162 price target, models $50 billion in revenue and $1.82 per share. He thinks there’s upside to Street iPhone numbers:

We believe the Street is at around 48 million iPhones for the Jun-15 quarter and the likely bogey ranges from 49-50 million. To put 49 million in perspective, it would imply 39% y/y unit growth vs the Mar-15 quarter of 38% excluding 1 million in channel fill as they moved to a 5-7 week inventory target from the prior 4-6. Including channel fill, Mar-15 iPhone units grew 40%. We believe the takeaway on a 49 million unit number would be that iPhone growth is accelerating. This acceleration reflects iPhone gaining share at the high-end of the market, a trend that we expect to continue throughout 2015. The well-known negative is that difficult comps starting in the Dec-15 quarter will soften investor optimism around iPhone share growth. Adding it all together, we believe the reported iPhone number in the Jun-15 quarter along with guidance will be a net positive to shares based on the theme that the iPhone 6/6+ tail is longer than expected. We are modeling for 17% iPhone unit growth in CY15 and flat iPhone growth in CY16.

Cowen & Co.’s Timothy Arcuri, who has an Outperform rating, and a $140 price target, models $51 billion and $1.88 per share, and sees a higher-than-expected iPhone total:

We model iPhone units 50MM (incl. 28MM 6 and 13MM 6+), above Street which seems 48-49MM. We raised ests in June (see Raising Estimates on the 6/6+ Long Tail; Target to $140) but still see upward bias given 1) our latest field work suggesting ongoing cuts to supply chain for iPhone’s high-end competition (e.g. Samsung Galaxy S6); 2) recent Cowen survey data showing increased iPhone penetration growth and meaningful future loyalty at key U.S. operators (see Wireless Survey – 2Q15 + CowenVision Video); and 3) China sales which remain strong despite demand and stock market uncertainties. While immaterial to results, we estimate Watch sales of 3MM and see the bias a little to the upside vs. this number. On iPad, we are modeling 10MM units (-25% Y/Y and ~20% Q/Q) as the category atrophies and AAPL continues to delay the 12.9″ tablet/NB crossover currently planned for Spring ’16 (now delayed several times). Relative to FX, movements are moderating and we see this as less of an issue than prior Qs.

Arcuri also sees upside to the Q4 forecast, with still more room to go for iPhone with the presumed “6S” update this fall:

We model revs/GM/EPS $53.7B/39.0%/$2.00, or ~$2.5B above Street revs and ~8% above on EPS on 49MM iPhone units (essentially flat Q/Q and below the up Q/Q trend for Sept vs. June the past few yrs). On iPhone, we are not uber-optimistic on the S-cycle, but even our 49MM unit number (+25% Y/Y) seems maybe a little light given China is already driving 20-25% of iPhone demand this product cycle and the country’s multi-operator LTE ramp is still early days.

Wells Fargo‘s Maynard Um, who has a Market Perform rating on the shares, and a $125 to $135 “valuation range,” expects revenue and EPS of $50.2 billion and $1.85, up from his prior $49.2 billion and 41.80. He, too, sees iPhone upside:

We raise our FQ3 iPhone sales to $30.8B on 50.1MM units from $29.6B/48.2MM, above Street’s $29.8B/47MM units. We think unit upside could be driven by the 25 carriers added in the quarter (Vodafone India being the largest one – see our 6/4 AAPL report, “A Deeper Analysis of iPhone Carrier Partners”) as well as purposely building indirect channel inventory (ended last quarter at the low end of its 5-7 week target). We are comfortable with our ASP of $615 (up 9.6% y/y). We believe gross margin upside in this S-cycle may be offset by increased bill of materials and potential pricing actions at the lower end.

Apple (AAPL) shares today are up $1.23, or 1%, at $128.05, as more analysts raise their estimates ahead of the company’s fiscal Q3 report on July 21st, after market close.

UBS’s Steve Milunovich, reiterating a Buy rating, and a $150 price target, hikes his estimate for the quarter to $52.5 billion and $2 per share from a prior $49.1 billion and $1.79, which is above consensus of $49.2 billion and $1.80. He also sees a higher-than-expected gross profit margin of 40.9%.

That’s mainly because of a higher average selling price on the iPhone of $660 versus the $636 he had been modeling.

The pricing guess comes from a survey performed by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, writes Milunovich. That firm “surveys 500 screened US Apple buyers each quarter,” with the latest data coming from “the April-June period,” he notes. Milunovich characterizes their data as “informative regarding the model mix and ASP trends.”

Milunovich writes that 2016 will be a “question mark” for the iPhone:

Looking forward, we are moderately above consensus for the Sep quarter at $52.7bn of revenue and $1.96 of EPS on 46mn phones. In F16 we are at EPS of $10.12, 4% above consensus. We are conservative on iPhone units at 225mn vs 233mn this year— the big question is how much of the base will be left to upgrade and how many new users Apple can attract in emerging markets. However, our gross margin of 41.6% is optimistic due to the “s” year, less currency impact, and the Watch moving to an above-average margin. We have reduced our Watch units from 31mn to 27mn for F16.

Also today, Stifel Nicolaus’s Aaron Rakers reiterates a Buy rating and a $150 price target, after raising his iPhone estimate to 50.2 million units for the quarter versus 43.5 million he’d been estimating previously.

That’s mostly because of China, he writes, where the move to higher-speed LTE wireless networks is still unfolding, fueling sales. His average selling price is at $645, however, a decrease from the $659 level of the March quarter, he notes.

Rakers models revenue and earnings in the quarter of $50.4 billion and $1.86 per share, up from $47.2 billion and $1.67 per share.

Two key points for Rakers are a big boost in product coming out of Henan Province in China, one place where the iPhone is manufactured…

We believe the Henan Province continues to represent the largest region of iPhone production. In May, mobile phone exports totaled ~$1.5 billion, or reflecting an increase of more than 65% yr/yr, following a 54% yr/yr increase in April. Over the prior three years, April + May data has accounted for approximately 69% of total June quarter exports, which would leave us to consider over 50% yr/yr growth in 2Q15, a high- teens sequential decline vs. our -30% seq. estimate for iPhone shipments in the June quarter. This data continually leaves us to consider an ex-China iPhone ship estimate in the mid-30 million range.

China Non-Android Smartphones Increase 165% Yr/Yr in C2Q15. Our tracking of China smartphone data found that Android smartphones are estimated to have accounted for approximately 85% of total C2Q15 China domestic smartphone shipments, a decline from 86% in C1Q15 and more importantly down from 95% in C3Q14 (i.e., the quarter prior to Apple’s iPhone 6/+ ramp). This leaves total non- Android (Apple iPhone = majority?) shipments at ~17 million in C2Q15, an increase from 13.1 million in C1Q15 – non-Android smartphone phone shipments up 165% yr/yr and +30% sequentially in C2Q15.

What follows is a comparison of the two in the context of using both with an iPhone, although at the end of the day, Pebble Time is probably better used with a phone running Google’s (GOOGL) Android software.

Pebble’s gadget, which went on sale as a pre-order this month at Best Buy’s online shop, is substantially cheaper than Apple Watch, at $199 versus the $350 price of the entry-level Apple Watch “Sport.” I purchased mine as part of the Kickstarter campaign earlier this year, which raised an amazing $20 million for Pebble in a very short span of time.

A more-expensive version in metal, “Pebble Time Steel,” is just now going into production and will be available in August for a retail price of $299. That model was also part of the Kickstarter campaign and received thousands of orders. The price of that is well below the $549 that Apple charges for the entry-level version of its Watch using stainless steel material.

It won’t do everything

The Pebble Time doesn’t do all the things Apple Watch does, but there are some core functions that can be compared between the two.

Pebble Time won’t let you make electronic payments like the Apple Pay function of Apple’s watch; it won’t measure your heart rate or your exercise regimen; it won’t show your location without extra third party apps; it can’t send and receive phone calls; you can’t send a drawing to a friend the way you can on Apple Watch; the list goes on.

The main function is to alert you to incoming text messages, email, calendar events and other updates to your digital life, and that’s the right basis on which to compare it with the the Apple Watch.

It’s fun, it’s bright, also feels cheap

The style of the Pebble Time is not bad. It’s almost as if Lego designed a watch, and I mean that in a good way: it has a bright, fun quality about it. I got a model with a red strap. Colleagues noticed it immediately, more so than the Apple Watch in space gray with black sport band that I have on. If you want to catch people’s attention, the Pebble may be a brighter conversation starter than the Apple Watch.

Those are its strengths. On the downside, Pebble is not as comfortable on the wrist as Apple Watch. It feels noticeably heavier, whereas most of the time I’m barely aware of the Apple Watch gripping my wrist.

The build quality of Pebble Time feels rather cheap. The metal-colored bezel of the Pebble was already incurring scuffs and scratches a day after I first put it on.

As far as the display, there is a trade-off between the two. The OLED display of the Apple Watch looks great indoors, but it’s harder to read out of doors. In bright sunshine, the Pebble’s e-ink display is brilliant, and it is always on, unlike the Apple Watch, which is dark most of the time. Indoors, without pressing a button to activate the backlight, the Pebble display can be next-to-impossible to make out.

One brilliant idea, mostly primitive software

When it comes to the software, Pebble has one big insight that’s brilliant. The watch shows tidbits of information organized as past, present, and future, which gives a sense of progression to the information on the device. It’s a very good conceit that offers a thoughtful way to organize the information during one’s day. Press the “up” button and you see events of the past, such as missed calls. Press the down button, and you’ll see upcoming calendar items, for example.

Another great feature of Pebble’s software is that there are tons of watch faces developed by third parties that can be loaded. These show a lot of inventiveness and charm, and they are for me the biggest advantage of the device, as Apple does not allow third-party watch faces.

Outside of that, I found the software lacking. One glaring failure is the lack of any ability to adjust text size. Like some other owners commenting on Pebble’s user forum, I found the default text size way too small. This should be easily fixed in a software update, but it’s an oversight that is so basic it seems rather bizarre.

Notices of texts and emails are often truncated, unlike the Apple Watch, where you can read a full message. There’s no built-in way to play back voice messages from your phone, as you can with Apple Watch.

More important, the Pebble is somewhat more limited than the Apple Watch in terms of your ability to take action, in the context of using it with an iPhone. When connected to an iPhone, there is no way to act on the notifications one receives. On Apple Watch, you can answer a text message, and with a forthcoming update, you’ll be able to reply to email as well.

That shortcoming is a limitation of Apple’s restrictions, and perhaps over time, Pebble will find a workaround. When used with an Android device, the Pebble Time can send voice-dictated responses and canned short answers.

Limited graphics, annoying buzzes

In numerous other ways, the Pebble hardware and software comes up as crude compared to that of Apple Watch. Pressing the physical buttons on the side of the pebble is not as smooth and satisfying as either flicking with your finger on the Apple Watch’s screen, or rotating its digital crown. Graphics on the Apple Watch are clear and rich, and animations are fluid; the graphics on the Pebble seem primitive, the animated transitions stiff, by comparison.

The vibrating alert of the Pebble is also not as comfortable as on Apple Watch. Apple invented a new kind of vibrating alert, called a “Taptic Engine.” In my experience, it is the right level of force, strong enough to make you aware something is arriving on the watch, but delicate enough not to be bothersome. The Pebble’s vibrations are more like a standard smartphone vibration, and I found them annoying to have on my wrist.

On Apple Watch, I regularly get 20 hours or so between charges. On the Pebble Time, I got more, but I never got the seven days quoted by the company. The battery level in fact dropped to a third within 48 hours and was depleted at the end of three days.

Part of that is because every single email I receive pops up as a notification on the Pebble Time. On Apple Watch, I’m able to limit email notifications to just the “VIP” list of contacts, thus taxing the battery less.

In summary, not for iPhone users

I wouldn’t recommend the Pebble Time to iPhone users who want to check and reply to notifications. The software and the hardware on Apple Watch are superior, the style and fit is head and shoulders above the Pebble, and the added benefit of the additional capabilities make it well worth the additional expense.

For those who don’t care as much about taking action on those notifications, or for those who are most interested in fun watch faces, or for those using an Android-based device, the Pebble Time is worth a look, but only once the company fixes the font issue.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brian White was on CNBC with host Melissa Lee a short while ago, defending his upbeat view on Apple (AAPL) from worries about slowing growth and China and the fizzle of the Apple Watch.

White, who has a Buy rating on Apple, and a $195 price target, repeated the view from his note to clients this morning, to wit, “don’t lose your way during the super cycle, stay the course.”

White remarked that the iPhone is “a multi-year cycle.”

He dismissed worries about Apple Watch sales, saying the product had experienced component supply issues, implying some hitches that will pass.

Asked about whether growth can continue in China, despite the stock market volatility there and worries about the economy, White opined that iPhone strength is expanding to other parts of the economy: “I think, definitely, in the big cities initially, and you’re starting to see it in the second- and third-tier cities; now it’s broadening out across China.”

White continued,

Apple had 8% market share a year ago in China. This last quarter, their share was just under 15%, and they’re number one in China now [in smartphone sales]. I’m not concerned. We are in a very early stage, as Tim Cook talked about, in this iPhone cycle, with only 20% of the installed base having upgraded. China is now in full force with Apple.

In his actual published note, White wrote of the watch that it can still be a hit gift this holiday season:

The tone around demand trends for the Apple Watch in the supply chain was disappointing, but we believe a component issue (i.e., Taptic Engine) has severely held back Apple’s ramp schedule (thereby holding back the true sales potential of the new device). However, Apple launched another seven countries (vs. nine on April 24) on June 26 (with three more expected this week) and made Apple Watch available in Apple retail stores. We believe Apple Watch will be the “go to” gift this holiday season. We also continue to believe Apple Watch will prove to be the best selling new product in Apple’s history (within first 12 months).

Apple shares today are up $2.26, or 1.8%, at $125.54, following an upgrade this morning to a Buy by Societe Generale’s Andy Perkins.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) are up $1.23, or 1%, at $124.51, after Societe Generale’s Andy Perkins this morning raises his rating on the shares to Buy from Hold, while maintaining a $140 price target, writing that the company had “yet another extremely strong quarter” in the three months ended in June.

Perkins ups his iPhone unit estimate for the fiscal Q3 ended last month to 48 million from 43 million, writing that once again, almost a third of iPhone sales came from China, exceeding the U.S. total.

Obviously any slowdown in the Chinese economy, whether or not stemming from the recent stock market turmoil, could have an adverse impact on Apple’s sales. However, currently we have not factored in any slowdown in iPhone sales. We therefore maintain our long-term targets.

Perkins is modeling $50.2 billion in revenue and $1.84 per share in net income. That is above the $48.95 billion and $1.78 the Street has been modeling.

Perkins is encouraged by early Apple Watch sales, noting that his view is not as negative as the report of slowing sales from Slice Intelligence widely circulated:

For the Apple Watch, our data suggests an encouraging start for the new product. However, we are finding it difficult to find corroborating evidence to support our figures. Additional confusion is coming from other data points such as the Slice report, which appears to suggest that the Apple Watch has suffered a sharp contraction in sales after huge orders on its initial launch. Based on our data, we see sales of 5m units for the June quarter, 8m for FY15 rising to 19m for FY16. Our ASP forecast is just under $500 for the quarter, giving sales of $2.5bn.

FBR & Co.‘s Daniel Ives, who has an Outperform rating on Apple (AAPL) shares, and a $185 price target, was on CNBC a short while ago with the channel’s Brian Sullivan, defending the name against worries about China’s sputtering stock market hurting sales of iPhone and other things.

Sure, said Ives, “China is the high octane fuel” for Apple. However, he went on to say that “this quarter, you will have another upside to Apple results, and at ten times, ex-cash, this is a near term speed bump, we think.”

Asked if he agreed with another recent guest who opined that the China share issue won’t really spread to the real economy, and consumption, Ives replied, “Yes, we’re on the same page.”

Apple in China, we view that as the top geographic region for them in two years. The iPhone is selling like hot cakes there. This is a little more bark-worst-than-bite. As we go later into year, with the new iPhone, and the watch, this is a near-term stock bump on what I view as a trillion dollar stock…

Sullivan asked if the Apple Watch has become “irrelevant” to Apple given that it doesn’t seem enough to move the needle, but it also doesn’t seem enough to hurt results, one way or the other.

Replied Ives, “What I can tell you is, it’s, max, 8% of revenue by 2017. This is forrest-and-trees here.”

“This is not about moving the needle, financially, it’s about opening up the wearables category, which has only sold 5 million to date.”

Still, Ives thinks Apple should disclose Apple Watch numbers, rather than merely lumping it into its “Other” category without comment.

“They do have to come out with the numbers, though, part of them being a black box has added to the overhang around the watch.”

Shares of Apple (AAPL) are up $1.46, or 1%, at $121.53, as Raymond James’s Tavis McCourt joins the cast of those calling for higher iPhone sales in the June-ended fiscal Q3, and for September, at perhaps 50 million units versus his prior 46 million estimate.

McCourt, who rates Apple shares Market Perform, draws upon a survey of consumers via the Web he performed, and also search results on Google (GOOGL), arguing that buying intentions are pretty much holding steady, as are search results, indicating better-than-expected trends for the iPhone.

McCourt offers the following infographic of buying intentions, that show both Apple and Google Android-based phones trending relatively flat (click on the graphic to see it larger):

He writes of the Google search data that it’s not seeing the dips it saw in prior “off years” for the device:

One forecasting tool we find helpful in determining global sell through trends on a number of consumer products is Google Trends, which measures search volume across the globe. As shown below, y/y growth for iPhone search volume declined when iPhone sales slowed meaningfully in late 2013-mid 2014, and then spiked with the iPhone 6/6Plus launch. Search volume has now reverted back to flat y/y, but nowhere near the y/y declines that were evident when the iPhone was truly “off cycle.”

McCourt also sees evidence to support recent speculation that Apple is planning for a bigger-than-usual build of the next iPhone this fall:

Apple’s supply chain is indicating 6S/6S Plus orders of 85-90 million, up from orders of ~80 million this time last year for the 6/6 Plus. This likely means Apple expects modest growth for this cycle of iPhones vs. the last, but we continue to believe that y/y trends will be flat-to-down for a few quarters when lapping the strong 6/6Plus comps. We have lowered GM slightly to adjust for what we believe is a higher cost of the 6S than appreciated. Relative to the 4S or 5S cycles, where GM trended up 100-400 bp y/y, the 6S will likely have meaningfully added hardware costs and face forex headwinds, which may limit GM expansion typically seen in the “S” cycle of iPhone launches. We are now forecasting flattish GM y/y in FY16.

On the negative side, the Apple Watch is disappointing expectations:

Although minutiae to overall revenues, we have lowered our Apple Watch assumptions from 7/17 million units shipped in FY15/16 to 6/14 million. Much will depend on the next Apple Watch refresh, but we suspect lukewarm media response to the watch may temper this year’s holiday demand. We note that Apple will still be able to gloat publicly that it is BY FAR the best selling smartwatch of all time, with an overwhelming majority of market share.

McCourt’s estimates for this fiscal year ending in September go to $234.3 billion in revenue and $9.10 per share in EPS from a prior $231 billion and $8.93. For 2016, he now sees $227.87 billion and $8.38, up from $221.99 billion and $8.20.

As for the stock, it’s at a discount, but that may be appropriate, eh thinks, given growth next year may be harder to come by:

Currently, this peer group is trading at 15.2x calendar 2016 P/E, whereas AAPL is trading at a slight discount at 13.8x. We note our 2016 calendar EPS estimate for AAPL of $8.70 is ~10% below the Street due to our opinion that iPhone sales may disappoint next year on top of difficult comps from the iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle. This places AAPL shares at a modest discount to what we would perceive as a fair value, but we suspect this may stay the case for the next year or so as y/y growth slows on tougher comparisons, and consensus expectations fall (in our opinion.)

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.