NFL Draft order derby: Say goodbye to Barkley and Griffin as Dolphins drop from 5th to 9th

When you’re the Miami Dolphins, and you started the season 0-7, and you don’t have a realistic shot at the playoffs, and your fan base wants you to draft a franchise quarterback in next April’s draft.

Sunday’s 34-14 win over Oakland was fun to watch, but it proved costly in the NFL Draft standings, as the Dolphins fell four spots this week from fifth to the ninth pick in the draft if the season ended today.

The really bad news for Dolphins fans is that two teams desperate for a quarterback – Washington and Cleveland – both leap-frogged the Dolphins this week. A third team that could be in the hunt for a QB – Philadelphia – jumped ahead of the Dolphins as well.

If the season ended today, you could kiss Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III goodbye, unless the Dolphins were to swing a major trade to jump up several spots in the draft order. And if the Dolphins keep winning – and it looks like they will – the Chiefs, Cardinals and Bills could all jump ahead of the Dolphins in the draft standings.

The notable movement in the draft order after the Week 13 games: Washington jumped from seventh to fifth, Cleveland jumped from 11th to seventh, Philly jumped from ninth to eighth, the Bucs jumped from 14th to 10th, and the Cards dropped from eighth to 11th.

Here is our comprehensive look at the current draft order and outlook for the rest of the season. Since the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, we include opponents’ winning percentage (the second tiebreaker is conference record):

2. St. Louis Rams (2-10)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .556
Remaining Opponents: at Seattle, Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .646
Outlook: The Rams’ difficult closing schedule will raise their strength of schedule, which could drop them 1-2 spots in the draft order by the end of the year. But they’re locked into a top-4 pick at this point, and although they won’t be drafting a QB, they could certainly be a trading partner for a team that needs one.

3. Minnesota Vikings (2-10)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .569
Remaining Opponents: at Detroit, New Orleans, at Washington, Chicago
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .563
Outlook: The Vikings won’t win more than two of their final four games, leaving them as a safe bet for a top-4 pick. Like Rams, the Vikings won’t be drafting a QB, but could open their doors to trade out of the pick.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .549
Remaining Opponents: Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, at Tennessee, Indianapolis
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .375
Outlook: The Jaguars might win one or two more games based on their soft closing schedule. GM Gene Smith likely won’t take a QB in the first round two years in a row, but the Jags also could be a trade-down partner.

5. Washington Redskins (4-8)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .458
Remaining Opponents: New England, at New York Giants, Minnesota, at Philadelphia
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .438
Outlook: One of the Dolphins’ biggest competitors in the first-round quarterback market leap-frogged the Dolphins this week after losing to the Jets, jumping from seventh to fifth. Hard to imagine Washington having a better final record than Miami, and the Skins would win the tiebreaker based off their weak strength of schedule.

6. Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .465
Remaining Opponents: Atlanta, at Houston, Tampa Bay, at New Orleans
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .604
Outlook: The Panthers’ big win over Tampa Bay dropped them one spot in the draft order. Even though the Panthers won’t be drafting a QB, the Dolphins should want to finish ahead of them in the draft order so they don’t have to worry about the Panthers trading their pick to a team that needs a QB.

7. Cleveland Browns (4-8)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .486
Remaining Opponents: at Pittsburgh, at Arizona, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .667
Outlook: The Browns were the big winners in the QB Derby this week, jumping up from 11th to 7th after their loss to the Ravens. The Browns, like the Redskins, are one of the Dolphins’ top competitors for a first-round quarterbacks. Cleveland’s strength of schedule will increase dramatically over the final four games of the season, but at the same time, only the Arizona game looks winnable. Expect Cleveland to finish ahead of the Dolphins in the final draft order, which isn’t good news for Miami fans.

8. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .507
Remaining Opponents: at Miami, New York Jets, at Dallas, Washington.
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .458
Outlook: Think Sunday’s game is meaningless? Think again. Call it the Draft Position Bowl, where the loser is actually kind of the winner. Hard to predict the Eagles’ final record now with Michael Vick coming back, but if you think the Eagles wouldn’t draft a QB in the first round just because they gave Vick a big contract this year, think again.

9. Miami Dolphins (4-8)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .521
Remaining Opponents: Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at New England, New York Jets
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .521
Outlook: The Dolphins are fortunate that the Eagles, Bills and Jets are all struggling, which will lower the Dolphins’ overall strength of schedule. But the Dolphins should finish with at least six wins, maybe seven or eight, and will likely keep sliding down the draft order.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .576
Remaining Opponents: at Jacksonville, Dallas, at Carolina, at Atlanta
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .438
Outlook: The Bucs likely won’t draft a QB with Josh Freeman entering his fourth year, but they’ll probably jump ahead of the Dolphins in the draft order once they lose their final three games of the season. Again, another team that could potentially trade their pick to a team that needs a QB.

12. Kansas City Chiefs (5-7)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .465
Remaining Opponents: at New York Jets, Green Bay, Oakland, at Denver
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .688
Outlook: Another dangerous team for Dolphins fans. The Chiefs may have beaten Chicago thanks to a Hail Mary touchdown, but they might be stuck on five wins for the rest of the season because of the toughest closing schedule in the league. And the Chiefs, who haven’t flourished with Matt Cassel the past three seasons, will likely draft a first-round QB.

13. Buffalo Bills (5-7)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .514
Remaining Opponents: at San Diego, Miami, Denver, at New England
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .521
Outlook: Bills currently have the tiebreaker over the Seahawks based on their worse conference record (3-5 compared to 4-4). The Bills also might be in the market for a first-round QB based on the way Ryan Fitzpatrick has played the last month (his new contract has an out clause that would allow the Bills to walk away after this season). It’s hard to see the Bills finishing with more than six wins, and could be stuck on five for the rest of the season. Another team for Dolphins fans to watch.

14. Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .514
Remaining Opponents: St. Louis, at Chicago, San Francisco, at Arizona
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .500
Outlook: The Seahawks are another team that definitely will be in the hunt for a QB in the first round, but their relatively soft closing schedule should get them to six or possibly even seven wins. Like the Dolphins, they’ll probably end up picking in the low-teens.

15. San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .521
Remaining Opponents: Buffalo, Baltimore, at Detroit, at Oakland
Remaining Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .583
Outlook: The Chargers should win at least two more games, and based on their strength of schedule would likely lose any sort of tie-breaker with the Dolphins. They have Phillip Rivers anyway, so Dolphins fans don’t have to worry about the Chargers drafting a QB.

Other teams that could be in the market for a QB: New York Jets, Denver, Oakland, San Francisco.

Archives

Categories

Trackbacks

[…] 2012 NFL Draft Prospects NFL Draft order derby: Say goodbye to Barkley and Griffin as Dolphins drop from 5th to 9th | The Dai… After week 13, we are in the 5th position in terms of 1st round pick. I think with the […]