In the long term, the outlook for the Venezuelan retail sector is favourable, with the country's urbanised population and growing middle class set to drive demand for non-essential items. However, in the short term, retailers face significant challenges. The government's highly interventionist stance, as well as low oil prices, high inflation, difficulties in getting foreign currency and shortages of basic goods, make operating in Venezuela challenging.

Key Views And Developments - Total household retail spending will rise from USD202.4bn in 2016 to USD494.3bn in 2020, after sharp fluctuations in recent years. - Groceries will be the single largest component of household retail spending, at almost 33%, cementing the importance of essential products in the Venezuelan retail basket. We see no change in the overall composition of Venezuelan retail spending over our forecast period. - Venezuela's population will grow from 31.5mn in 2016 to 33.1mn by 2020.