High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak

A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.

Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.

Figure 2.NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.

Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornadoPortlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!

Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Fire crews make their way up Short Tail Springs Road after a tornado struck the area Friday, March 2, 2012 in Harrison, Tenn. Powerful storms stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes flattened buildings in several states, wrecked two Indiana towns and bred anxiety across a wide swath of the country in the second powerful tornado outbreak this week. (AP Photo/Chattanooga Times Free Press, Ashlee Culverhouse)

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA LUMPKIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1130 PM EST

* AT 1047 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF DAWSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DAHLONEGA AND CLEVELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANSTHAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAYALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOUARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO ABASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

TAKE COVER NOW! TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOTWAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HASPASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 86 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

TORNADO WARNING FOR... DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA LUMPKIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

I'm looking for a MODERATE RISK from Tallahassee to Jacksonville tomorrow. The models are showing strong convection a second disturbance digs south enough for a decent severe weather outbreak in the deep south from GA down to potentially as far south as Central Florida tomorrow night.

Hey, folks we're putting together some teams of relief and clean up workers for Harrisburg IL and we're looking to do the same for Indiana and all the other areas hit by today's outbreak. Go to our blog for more information. We really need your help to make a difference for these people that truly need it.

Quoting Bluestorm5:Starting to feel like Vilonia situation again... everybody was fearing Vilonia was an EF5 at first, but the rating came in as EF2. It's starting to feel the same for West Liberty, BUT I haven't seen enough to judge how hard that town got hit. Radar was too impressive to not be a strong tornado.

I want to know what happened to Salyersville. Ill post the storm again.

Everyone in the south is nice, it's called Southern Hospitality. We need to keep all of these people in our prayers, southerners are all really nice,caring folk.

i am proud of my southern accent and southern personailty!!!

u know in fifth grade there was this katrina evacuee girl, and she was from New orleans. but everytime i said something to the teacher, or to somebody ese or her, she would tease me about how iw said my words lol. she has moved back to NOLA...which is kinda sad...*cough* cuz i kinda liked her lol...

Starting to feel like Vilonia situation again... everybody was fearing Vilonia was an EF5 at first, but the rating came in as EF2. It's starting to feel the same for West Liberty, BUT I haven't seen enough to judge how hard that town got hit. Radar was too impressive to not be a strong tornado.

If the AGW/Climate change discussion were based 100% in science, then NOW would be the perfect time to discuss as the event was happening and the data was flowing in.

However, for unfortunate reasons some can't have an AGW/Climate change discussion without bringing in politics, or even religion.

Bottom line, the GOM is warmer than normal, the winter has been warmer than normal, thus the potential for an early, severe tornado outbreak. Warmer global temps are giving rise to early, and possibly more severe spring weather outbreaks. This could also mean that the tornado seasons may peak and end earlier in future years. That remains to be seen.

Heck...I does not matter what EF it was...The point is people are hurt and people have passed away. GOSH! What more do you want? That is Aweful news in itself, being an EF5 doesn't legitimize it!!!

I can tell you I have actually been to West Liberty last year to help out with some flood matters that happenned in the Spring. I have seen that church and can tell you if the tornado on Wednesday that took down that other church was an EF4, than this was likely an EF4 too. That was a large church in West Liberty.

Side note, some of the nicest people I have ever met were in the State of Kentucky...Statewide comment. So when I say the nicest people I ever met in Kentucky were in West Liberty...I'm really sayin' somethin'. My thoughts have been with them all evening.

Everyone in the south is nice, it's called Southern Hospitality. We need to keep all of these people in our prayers, southerners are all really nice,caring folk.