From Cornell International Affairs ReviewVOL. 4 NO. 1

The Blue Counterrevolution: The First Year of President Viktor Yanukovych

Relations with the West: Onwards to a Bright Future!46

Despite Viktor Yanukovych’s pro- Russian stance, prospects for cooperation between the E.U. the United States and Ukraine has not significantly deteriorated from the Yushchenko administration. With the prominent exception of NATO membership, which will almost certainly not occur in the foreseeable future, much of the rhetoric of the Yushchenko administration has carried over to the new administration. Simply put, Ukraine needs the west. Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including natural gas pipelines, is in dire need of modernization and repairs. Since any assistance from Moscow would come under the condition of greater control of the Ukrainian energy sector, the Ukrainian government has publicly called for western investment in the natural gas infrastructure.47 The prospect of E.U. involvement in energy infrastructure modernization greatly angers Moscow, which wishes to further its control over the transit system.48 Cooperation on this matter will serve as a check on Russian influence while simultaneously allowing the E.U. to prod Yanukovych on domestic matters if it so chooses.

Yanukovych has said that, “Ukraine’s future is in Europe,” and officially E.U. membership remains the ultimate goal for Ukraine.49 The Ukrainian foreign ministry has lobbied hard albeit with little success, for an abolishment of visa regulations with the E.U. or at the very least an ease in the regulations. 50 Ukraine is also actively seeking an Associate Member status within the E.U.51 For all the talk of integrating Ukraine with Europe, Viktor Yushchenko had actually done fairly little to that end. Ukraine has recently signed a free trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and was eager to accept the latest IMF loan to avoid approaching the Russians for financial assistance.

While Yanukovych himself may have little interest or incentive in joining the E.U., he understands that the vast majority of his people have an inexorable yearning to become a member state.52 Ukrainians believe E.U. membership would improve the economy, reduce corruption, reintegrate Ukraine with Europe, and improve its security and prestige.53 Hence, Yanukovych has to at least pay lip service to those sentiments and continue to be seen as supportive of integration.

In an obvious effort to reach out, Yanukovych gave up the remaining Ukrainian highly enriched uranium during his visit to the United States54 and has allowed military exercises to be held with NATO. The later move was sharply criticized in the Russian press and is evidence that Yanukovych intends to keep his options open.55 The Yanukovych administration has shown willingness to challenge E.U. member states on policy differences as can be seen by their efforts to halt Romanian economic encroachment along the Danube delta.56 Under the previous administration, the Ukrainian government had an obsequious policy of not challenging E.U. member states on anything.57 While the Yanukovych administration may not share liberal democratic values, it is nevertheless willing to work with the west in order to balance out Russia.

Conclusions:

Viktor Yanukovych has made a remarkable comeback since his defeat in 2004. Helped in part by the global financial crisis and the endless gridlock (a gridlock that he often engineered) that had come to define Ukrainian politics after 2004, Yanukovych was able to rebrand himself as a strong leader who knew how to effectively manage the Ukrainian economy while respecting a balance between the west and Russia. Yanukovych has so far spent little time improving the economy and has moved Ukraine much closer to Russia than anticipated.

Endnotes

“Victory for the Blue Camp,” The Economist, February 11, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/15501625

“Наблюдатели: Выборы в Украине не соответствовали стандартам Совета Европы,” [Observers: Elections in Ukraine do not meet the standards of the Council of Europe], Korrespondent, November 2, 2010. http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/1133615-nablyudateli-vybory-v-ukraine-ne-sootvetstvovali-standartam-sovetaevropy

“Наблюдатели: Выборы в Украине не соответствовали стандартам Совета Европы,” [Observers: Elections in Ukraine do not meet the standards of the Council of Europe], Korrespondent, November 2, 2010. http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/1133615-nablyudateli-vybory-v-ukraine-ne-sootvetstvovali-standartam-sovetaevropy

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