In other words, three apparently different poll results converge on the same conclusion – that nothing has moved this week, as is the case with every other week of this campaign, and for most of the year before that.

Sorted.

UPDATE:The Sham tells us it’s a cliffhanger – Newspoll is saying 52-48. But this is looking a bit fishy. Before going into a panic, read these threads at The Poll Bludger and Possums Pollytics in their entirety. Newspoll looks to have changed its methodology in the final poll before the election, in a manner that would clearly be expected to increase apparent support for the Coalition (increasing the proportion of the sample that came from regional/rural areas). Shanahan did not even mention this change – all he noted was the increased overall sample size, which unrealistically enhances the apparent credibility of the results.

Another interesting point is that the headline 2PP figure is being trumpeted, yet none of the other figures will be published until tomorrow. Even Shanahan doesn’t mention the primary vote, let alone his beloved “best economic manager” evaluations. While Mumble reports that the primary is allegedly 44 (Labor) + 7 (Greens) vs 43 (Coalition) + 6 (Others), the details aren’t available for the psephmasters to completely untangle the data.

Taken together, these facts suggest that the GG and Newspoll have put out a number that supports the narrative of a Howard comeback without subjecting that number to appropriate scrutiny from those people who don’t own Newspoll, and without providing a justification for changing their methodology (or even a footnote that they changed it) in a way that shifts the results toward Team Howard.

I must admit, I’m feeling relaxed and comfortable at the moment. I might even go so far as to say that I feel the country is heading in the right direction.

After a year of polls that haven’t moved in any substantial way, and given the way this election campaign has been a series of blunders and miscalculations by Team Howard, I don’t feel there is any real chance that the result could be a surprise.

Of course, that means I’ll be a lot more shocked than you if things go badly tomorrow.