Kaposvar have a really tight home defence, keeping six clean sheets in their last ten games, so the onus is on KTE to score here. Under 3.5 goals looks nailed on, but according to my numbers over 2.5 goals is too short and the price should be nearer evens.

Only half of Porto’s last 10 games have featured over 2.5 goals and that’s the same story as Estoril’s away games this season. The visitors are not nearly as bad as the bookies seem to think: there’s an element of risk here, but if Estoril defend as well as they can, this game will become very tradeable.

Result: 2-0 (1/2) – two quick Porto goals looked like the worst possible start, but the hosts basically shut down the game.