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Worst ETFs In 2012? Consider Last Year's Losers In 2013

Written by: Gary Gordon01/07/13 - 7:00 AM EST

Tickers in this article:
AMJ IEZ MLPI MLPN OIH REMX SLX TUR XES XME

NEW YORK ( ETF Expert ) --There's a tendency in the financial media to wrap up calendar years with a focus on the "winners" and "losers." Inevitably, a large number of unsophisticated investors will allocate money to the so-called best performers, while avoiding any commitment to the underachievers.

Herein lies one of the biggest mistakes that ETF enthusiasts make. Specifically, they view success through a prism of calendar-year data, ignoring genuine momentum found in relative strength or price ratios or even May-over-May performance. In fact, a calendar-year obsession has enormous potential to mislead.

Keep in mind, it's not uncommon for worst performers in one year to reverse course entirely. In 2011, iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) lost a staggering -36.6%. In 2012? TUR was one of the best unleveraged ETF performers with an eye-popping 65.6% gain.

Recognizing that 2012 "losers" may reverse course in 2013, I identified three ETF spaces that may do just that. Each of the asset areas discussed below under-performed broader large-cap equity benchmarks (i.e., S&P 500 , MSCI All World) on a year-over-year basis. By the same token, each demonstrated greater relative strength than these benchmarks over the last five trading sessions.

As recently as Dec. 30, JP Morgan Alerian MLP ETN (AMJ) was below a 200-day trendline. A few trading days later (Jan. 3), with the "cliff resolution" removing dividend tax uncertainty, things look very different.

This is not to suggest that everything is hunky-dory for the asset class. There is environmental resistance to allowing the Keystone Pipeline to be built. The White House has hinted at additional tax reform in the debt ceiling debate, which may reintroduce uncertainty to the asset class and its structure.

Even a 10-year yield that manages to move another 50 basis points higher could threaten a favorable spread (300 basis points). Nevertheless, I would still be intrigued by a minor pullback in funds like Credit Suisse MLP 30 (MLPN) and UBS Alerian MLP Infrastructure (MLPI) .

2. Strategic Metals and Industrial Metals. Year-over-year, SPDR Metals and Mining (XME) is down -5%. For believers in hard assets, that's a particularly jagged pill to swallow. And yet, ever since China announced a steadfast commitment to support 7.5% GDP going forward, accompanied by several months of manufacturing segment expansion, materials and metals have moved steadily higher.

In truth, China is more likely to grow at 8% and its factory sector hasn't been this strong since May of 2011. With the world's largest economy being the primary engine for global growth, and with demand for industrial/strategic metals surging, look for the possibility of enhanced capital appreciation. Market Vectors Strategic Metals (REMX) and Market Vectors Steel (SLX) are worthy of placing on your watch list.