October 04, 2011

Perry crashing in South, Cain leads NC, WV, NE primaries

Raleigh, N.C. – The South had been Rick Perry’s stronghold, but recent stumbles have him faltering even there. Meanwhile, Herman Cain was one of the early insurgent leaders in the Republican presidential primary late in the spring, but his moment in the sun did not last long. His surprise victory in the Florida straw poll seems to have propelled him back into the lead in all three states PPP polled last weekend, however—leads he holds regardless of whether Chris Christie jumps into the race or not.

In North Carolina, Cain has 21% to Christie’s 19%, Mitt Romney’s and Newt Gingrich’s 13%, Perry’s 11%, Michele Bachmann’s and Ron Paul’s 6%, and Jon Huntsman’s and Rick Santorum’s 2%. Without Christie, Cain leads Gingrich and Romney, 27-17, with Perry at 15%. Just a month ago, Perry led with 35% to Romney’s 12%, Paul’s 10%, Cain’s 9%, and Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, so Perry is down 20 points, Cain up 18, Gingrich up nine, and Romney up five.

In Nebraska, Cain tops Christie and Gingrich, 27-19-12, with Romney and Bachmann each at 8%, Perry at 7%, Paul at 5%, and Huntsman and Santorum at 3% apiece. Absent Christie, Cain leads Gingrich, Romney, Perry, and Bachmann, 30-16-13-10-10.

In West Virginia, Cain beats Christie, Gingrich, and Romney, 21-17-14-13, with Perry and Bachmann at 9% each, Paul at 5%, Santorum at 3%, and Huntsman at 2%. If Christie does not enter the field, Cain leads Gingrich, Romney, and Perry, 24-18-16-15. Perry is down 18 and Cain up 18 points from last month, with Gingrich up seven.

The most conservative voters are a 40-43% plurality of the electorate in these red states, and Cain has leads of nine to 14 points with them. He also leads, though more narrowly, with the center-right. Either he or Gingrich leads with the small group of moderates.

PPP surveyed 400 usual Republican primary voters in Nebraska and 300 primary voters in West Virginia from September 30th to October 2nd, as well as 400 primary voters in North Carolina from September 30th to October 3rd. The margin of error for the Nebraska and North Carolina surveys is +/-4.9%, and +/-5.7% for the West Virginia survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 47%Man................................................................. 53%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 7%30 to 45........................................................... 28%46 to 65........................................................... 44%Older than 65.................................................. 21%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 47%Man................................................................. 53%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 6%30 to 45........................................................... 28%46 to 65........................................................... 39%Older than 65.................................................. 27%

Q7 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democraticor Republican primaries, or do you not usuallyvote in primaries?Democratic primaries ...................................... 0%Republican primaries .....................................100%Don't usually vote in primaries ........................ 0%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 46%Man................................................................. 54%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 6%30 to 45........................................................... 20%46 to 65........................................................... 44%Older than 65.................................................. 30%

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