A total of 21 patients (19%) died during the follow-up. There was an overrepresentation of men (61 vs. 39%; P = 0.044) and smokers (55 vs. 27%; P = 0.01) in patients who progressed to micro- or macroalbuminuria versus those who did not progress. In addition, progressors had higher fasting plasma glucose (P = 0.002) and HbA1 (P = 0.0002) concentrations at baseline than did nonprogressors. Neuropathy was more often seen in progressors than in nonprogressors at baseline (53 vs. 16%; P = 0.0004). Frequency of HLA genotypes and autoimmune markers did not differ between progressors and nonprogressors. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, HbA1 (P = 0.0005) and a history of smoking (P = 0.011) were independent predictors of progression of AER.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reemphasizes the importance of poor glycemic control and smoking as independent risk factors for progression of AER. Furthermore, development of micro- or macroalbuminuria in NIDDM was associated with neuropathy and male sex. Diabetes Care 21:1932-1938, 1998