If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by mbn007

He can hit, and has huge power, especially as a pull hitter at home, but 40 is asking a bit much, IMO.

Greg. Bird has started 82 games in his major league career, roughly half a season. That includes last April when he played with a bone condition in his foot which impeded his hitting to the tune of a .100 BA and 1 HR for the month. In those 82 games, he hit 40 HR.

Another way to look at it is that Bird has played 75 games (started + partial) healthy and has hit 19 HR in those 75 games.

No matter how you look at it, in his limited major league experience, Bird has hit HR at a rate that projects to 38-40 HR for a full season.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by Bill Marsh

Greg. Bird has started 82 games in his major league career, roughly half a season. That includes last April when he played with a bone condition in his foot which impeded his hitting to the tune of a .100 BA and 1 HR for the month. In those 82 games, he hit 40 HR.

Another way to look at it is that Bird has played 75 games (started + partial) healthy and has hit 19 HR in those 75 games.

No matter how you look at it, in his limited major league experience, Bird has hit HR at a rate that projects to 38-40 HR for a full season.

I think you can definitely pencil him in for 30, and 40 is not out of the question the way the ball is flying these days.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by Bill Marsh

Greg. Bird has started 82 games in his major league career, roughly half a season. That includes last April when he played with a bone condition in his foot which impeded his hitting to the tune of a .100 BA and 1 HR for the month. In those 82 games, he hit 40 HR.

Another way to look at it is that Bird has played 75 games (started + partial) healthy and has hit 19 HR in those 75 games.

No matter how you look at it, in his limited major league experience, Bird has hit HR at a rate that projects to 38-40 HR for a full season.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by THEBOSS84

IF he plays 150 games, he can definitely hit 40 HR.

If he plays 150 games I'd say it's actually probable he hits 40 HR.

From a scouting standpoint his swing produces a tremendous amount of natural loft - it's basically tailor-made for this new era of launch angle mechanics. Combine that with his easy, natural power, Yankee Stadium, and the juiced ball, and I think it'd be an upset if he didn't hit 40 HR in 150 games.

The part that makes me gun shy is predicting 150 games for any player other than Cal Ripken, Jr.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by Snatch Catch

If he plays 150 games I'd say it's actually probable he hits 40 HR.

From a scouting standpoint his swing produces a tremendous amount of natural loft - it's basically tailor-made for this new era of launch angle mechanics. Combine that with his easy, natural power, Yankee Stadium, and the juiced ball, and I think it'd be an upset if he didn't hit 40 HR in 150 games.

The part that makes me gun shy is predicting 150 games for any player other than Cal Ripken, Jr.

Optimal HR hitting is 25-35 degrees over 95 MPH. In the playoffs (SSS and all), he AVERAGED the highest exit velocity (93.5) of any player. Coupled with an average launch angle (25.5).

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by THEBOSS84

I think you made an error (bold). He's hit 20 HR in 94 career games.

Yes, but he didnít start 94 games; he started 82. It was the 82 games I focused on because almost all of them were complete games. The other dozen games were mostly just an inning or 2, and he didnít hit any HR in those part time appearances.

I think the most representative sample is the 75 games he played healthy, which includes part time games and which projects to a full season of 150 games when doubled.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Originally Posted by Bill Marsh

Yes, but he didn’t start 94 games; he started 82. It was the 82 games I focused on because almost all of them were complete games. The other dozen games were mostly just an inning or 2, and he didn’t hit any HR in those part time appearances.

I think the most representative sample is the 75 games he played healthy, which includes part time games and which projects to a full season of 150 games when doubled.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

Adler doing some great analysis on Bird. Guy is gonna hit FITTY!

"Hard-hit air balls" includes any batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher and a launch angle between eight and 50 degrees. Statcast™ uses that 95-mph threshold as the baseline for hard contact. And for air balls, the 8-50 degree launch-angle range encompasses line drives and fly balls while excluding ground balls and popups. That's the contact that can do damage. Essentially all barrels, for example -- the optimal quality of contact -- fall in that range of launch angles.

Since Statcast™ started tracking in 2015, more than 75 percent of all extra-base hits have had exit velocities of 95-plus mph and launch angles of 8-50 degrees. If you're hitting a lot of balls that hit those marks, you're likely to have success, and that's exactly what Bird did to close out the year.

Bird's rate of hard-hit air balls from August through the end of the postseason was the second-highest out of 344 Major League hitters with at least 50 batted balls in that timespan. The only player with a higher rate was Judge. That's good company to keep.

Nearly all of Bird's hard-hit balls were elevated. Even high exit velocities aren't nearly as damaging if the ball is pounded into the ground or skied straight up into the air. Bird stayed right in the sweet spot in between. Only three of his hard-hit balls weren't in the productive air-ball range. (All were grounders with launch angles below eight degrees; none were popups over 50.) No hitter elevated more of his hard contact than Bird, who put 91.9 percent of his hard-hit balls in the air from August onward.

Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

That's great data that supports the general scouting/observation about him.

I remember there was a HR he hit in the AFL in 2014 to dead center that looked like a regular flyball, but it went about 450ft. The guy has such natural, easy power in his swing, and it produces amazing loft/backspin. It's crazy how perfect he is for this era of juiced balls and launch angle.