Yes, we may well have ongoing national security concerns which will undercut Democratic attempts to focus the debate on a weak economy or a lack of health care. But the article does not contemplate the effect on Democrats of a "catastrophic success" in the Middle East. Just imagine that it is September 2004, with Sharon and the new Palestinian Prime Minister shaking hands in a Rose Garden ceremony celebrating the latest (genuine?) breakthrough on the Palestinian question. Picture the effect on Jewish donors, and Jewish voters in swing states like Florida, or, dare we whisper it, New York.

However bleak and unpromising the international scene appears to the Democrats right now, it could still get much, much worse.