Monday, May 10, 2010

As with all things...

I don't try too hard at any one thing. This blog is where I post my many premonitions about the state of the universe.

Back in 2005-ish i went on the radiohead website, and it read "Sell your house, buy gold." That was fucking prophetic to say the least, and a hell of a statement to put up on your website if you're just a band.

On the one hand, if you're wrong, you could say you were making an artistic statement if anybody ever even remembers it, or asks you about that. On the other hand, if you were right, as they were... well, that pretty much makes whoever decided to post that statement the most sound economic minds of the past decade.

So I've decided to start a similar blog. My first premonition was that WTR would triple in value over 5 years. I remember reading that we are approaching peak water. I'm saying, any company that's in the business of water refining will see a huge boost around the summer of 2011 when water shortages "should" begin to develop according to this "peak water" chart I saw. Whether that pans out or not remains to be seen. Having virtually no money of my own to invest, I figured I'd at least keep a record of what i WOULD have done with my money IF i had some. :)

Anyway... my next premonition is simple. Gold stands at $1200 an ounce. Less than a decade ago, it was at around $250 per oz. Now I'm not saying we're going back there. But I can see it dropping down to a reasonable $600 fairly quickly. Catching that moment might be really really hard. Shorting gold would be very difficult. But here's what my gut tells me. A: The news focus inevitably has to switch from "doom" to "bloom". "We're in a recession" and "shit sucks" is no longer news, but "it just might be getting better" IS news, thus that's going to be the "story" until it becomes reality. Thus, our current cycle of international scaredshitlessness might be coming to an end. I for one feel the pendulum beginning to swing. B: Glenn Beck is telling his audience to buy gold. If his audience (read: morons) is buying gold, we are truly in the midst of a bubble ready to pop. Gold, being a limited commodity with little "new" production, whose price is almost entirely driven by demand, must surely be at the end of its up cycle if Glenn Beck's audience is buying it. If they're buying it, it means the guy who bought it 5 years ago is making bank right now, and once Glenn's audience bought it all up, there will be no further demand for it. The general population is the dirt of investment "circle of life". The place where the predator shits out the remains of the prey he killed 3 days ago. His belly is full, and he's a few pounds heavier.