Is demand for travel to Cuba flattening?

By BETH J. HARPAZ, AP Travel Editor

Updated 1:50 pm, Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Demand for travel to Cuba may be flattening, with soaring hotel prices on the island, American Airlines cutting some flights, and uncertainty over whether new travel restrictions could be imposed when Donald Trump takes office.

Gregory Geronemus, co-CEO of smarTours, a tour company that's taken 3,000 Americans to Cuba, confirms there has been a softening in demand.

In part he blamed hotel prices on the island, which have nearly doubled since 2015 and which are set by the government. "There's still demand but there's only so much people can afford," he said. Cheaper lodging is available through Airbnb and other services, but not all travelers want the hassles and uncertainty of traveling on their own in Cuba.

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Geronemus said "Zika has cast a shadow" on the region too, despite the Cuban government's assertion that mosquito abatement efforts have been successful. Zika, a mosquito-borne virus, can cause birth defects.

While an increasing number of airlines are offering flights, American Airlines is cutting three of its 13 daily flights to Cuba beginning Feb. 16 and switching to smaller planes on some routes, said spokesman Matt Miller. He added that adjustments are common with new service and that the reduction was made before the presidential election.

ForwardKeys, which compiles data based on global reservations transactions, says it has not detected a drop in bookings for Cuba. In the last few weeks, several U.S. airlines started regular commercial flights to Cuba. United Airlines launched Newark-Havana flights Nov. 29 and Saturday service from Houston on Dec. 3. Spokesman Jonathan Guerin said the airline is "prepared to work with the new administration" going forward. JetBlue, which also just launched service, would not provide specifics but said "we are pleased with how flights to Cuba are selling."

Tanner Callais of Austin, Texas, who runs a cruise website called Cruzely.com, had hoped to cruise to Cuba in 2017.

But "now with some of the things I've heard about tightening up restrictions on travel to Cuba, we're taking a wait and see approach," he said. "The last thing we want to do is put a lot of money down for a trip and then have the cruise cancelled due to new restrictions put in place."

Others are booking trips as soon as they can, fearing a Cuba travel ban under Trump. "Ordinarily we book trips three to six months ahead but people are calling this week to register for trips three weeks from now," said Kimberly Haley-Coleman, executive director of GlobeAware, which organizes volunteer trips.

Though Geronemus says the softening started "long before Trump was elected," some travelers are asking for reassurance that they'd be covered if travel gets banned between the time they book their tickets and their planned trip. That has smarTours promising a full refund or credit for a discounted trip elsewhere should new rules make it impossible to go ahead with a trip, Geronemus says.

Erika Richter, spokeswoman for the American Society of Travel Agents, says "some people we talk to are convinced that everything will be rolled back on Jan. 21. Others think, as a hospitality industry leader, (Trump) will not follow through. So, I think it's probable but not guaranteed that we see a roll back in early 2017."

But what Trump has in mind for Cuba is unclear. Three days after Fidel Castro's death, the president-elect tweeted: "If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal."

Some critics believe the Obama administration should have held out for democratic and human rights reforms as part of the loosening of travel restrictions. But others think that stimulating Cuba's economy through travel — including inroads by U.S. cruise, hotel and tour companies there — is the best way to bring change.

Haley-Coleman thinks the most likely scenario is a return to strict enforcement of rules for permitted types of trips. Even under President Obama, Americans can't go to Cuba as regular tourists. They have to certify that their trip falls into one of 12 permitted categories, including educational, humanitarian or cultural travel. Right now, though, that certification is done on the honor system. Haley-Coleman thinks Trump may require itineraries be pre-approved to ensure Americans are not just drinking mojitos on the beach.