January 28, 2011

Close WV Dem gov. primary, Capito runs away with GOP

Raleigh, N.C. – A Shelley Moore Capito candidacy would be an instant field-clearer on the Republican side of the West Virginia gubernatorial picture, and if she remains as strong in the general election as Wednesday’s release showed, she could be a shoo-in all the way to October. But whoever her Democratic opponent ends up being will have a tougher road. Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, only in office for a couple months, does not have the strength of a usual incumbent, and several Democrats see an opportunity to ascend to the state house, including popular Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who essentially ties Tomblin, with State Treasurer John Perdue not far behind.

Capito is the favorite of 72% of her party faithful. Her closest competitor, at 10%, is former Secretary of State Betty Ireland, with state senator Clark Barnes at 5%, and attorney Mark Sorsaia and state GOP chairman Mike Stuart barely registering at 1% apiece. If Capito decides to keep her House seat now that the Republicans are in the majority, or chooses instead to challenge Joe Manchin for Senate, Ireland would take her place, with 46% ahead of Barnes’ 11%, Sorsaia’s 9%, and Stuart’s 4%. But Capito’s void would leave three times as many undecided as before.

Across the aisle, Tomblin is holding onto an insignificant 25-24 lead over Tennant, with Perdue at 16%, acting state Senate President Jeff Kessler at 7%, state House Speaker Rick Thompson at 6%, state Senate President Pro Tem Brooks McCabe at 4%, and 17% undecided—meaning this race is pretty wide open. All of these candidates appear at least somewhat likely to run, and several have already created websites and campaign organizations.

But in a short primary campaign, Tomblin and Tennant, as the best known, have a clear advantage. Which of them is the victor depends on who turns out. West Virginia’s Democrats are unusually conservative, with more (31%) claiming to be right of center than left (21%). Among the moderate near-majority, Tennant edges Tomblin, 26-23. But the other two ideological groups diverge, with Tennant holding a 29-18-17 lead over Tomblin and Perdue with liberals, and Tomblin dominating, 32-17-17, with conservatives, providing for his overall razor-thin edge.

PPP surveyed 686 usual West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-3.7% margin of error, and 355 usual Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.2% margin of error, from January 20th to 23rd. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof John Perdue?Favorable........................................................ 35%Unfavorable .................................................... 18%Not sure .......................................................... 47%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,moderate, or conservative?Liberal ............................................................. 21%Moderate......................................................... 48%Conservative................................................... 31%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 55%Man................................................................. 45%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 9%30 to 45........................................................... 19%46 to 65........................................................... 48%Older than 65.................................................. 24%

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