VFR conditions have returned to all of New Mexico with light to moderate breezes prevailing. Despite an increase in high clouds, forecast models are bullish with the return of low stratus clouds and fog to the southeastern and east central portions of New Mexico early Saturday morning. Have introduced MVFR conditions to row taf, but some LIFR conditions could even develop there and toward CVS. Otherwise, afternoon breezes will increase Saturday afternoon in some higher terrain areas and eastern plains.

52

&&

Previous discussion...313 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2016... synopsis... temperatures will rebound above normal areawide by Saturday with increasing winds, especially across the northeast quarter of the state. The trend of increasing winds will continue Saturday night into Sunday, when the jet stream will take a southerly dip into southern Colorado and New Mexico. The result will be windy conditions, with the potential for strong to damaging winds along the Central Mountain chain and east Central Highlands. Light snow is forecast across the northern and west central higher terrain late Saturday night into Sunday, with no significant accumulation. Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week prior to the next backdoor cold front, forecast to impact the eastern plains Wednesday into Thursday with below normal temperatures. Another, potentially stronger, backdoor cold front may impact the area toward the end of next week.

&&

Discussion... the last patch of low stratus is diminishing across central Chaves County, but redevelopment is possible overnight across the southeast plains with some fog potential given the remaining very shallow moisture layer. Otherwise, tonight will be uneventful with above normal temperatures forecast areawide thanks in part to a batch of high clouds moving overhead limiting radiational cooling somewhat.

Winds will be on the uptrend Saturday with a deepening Lee side trough and above normal temperatures forecast areawide. Winds throughout the atmospheric column will increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday as the jet stream takes a southerly dip across southern Colorado and New Mexico. By 12z Sunday, the 700-500mb layer mean winds are forecast to reach up to near 65kts along the Central Mountain chain. These strong to potentially damaging winds will definitely impact the peaks and may extend down the east slopes to the adjacent Highlands if the inversion sets up at the right time and a well developed mountain wave materializes. Will issue a high wind watch for Saturday night and Sunday for the Central Mountain chain and east Central Highlands for now, but will likely also end up with several additional forecast zones in wind advisories. Orographic forcing will help to produce some accumulating light snow late Saturday night into Sunday, favoring west-facing slopes of the northern and west central higher terrain where a couple inches are possible. Strong winds aloft will continue over the state Monday with zonal flow across the Continental U.S.. more wind highlights may be required Monday for the sangres.

The jet stream will dip south once again Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves east across the Great Basin and into Colorado. Look for another windy day Wednesday, perhaps requiring more wind highlights. In addition, a backdoor cold front will slide down the Easter plains Wednesday, but lower forecaster confidence on the extent of the westward penetration given some continued differences among the latest medium range model solutions. For now, we're forecasting below normal temperatures across the eastern plains Wednesday through Thursday, with above normal temperatures elsewhere.

More differences show up by the end of next week with regard to another backdoor push, but both the 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a pattern transition next weekend with the potential for a major winter storm to develop over the intermountain west and progress east toward the Desert Southwest and southern rockies by Sunday the 18th and Monday the 19th.

11

&&

Fire weather... a stiff west northwest flow aloft will continue to prevail, bringing bouts of stronger winds to nm with potential for a strong cold front intrusion by the middle of next week. Winds this afternoon have been light to moderate with just some high clouds observed over the forecast area after the areas of low clouds and fog burned off earlier. Good to excellent relative humidity recovery is expected tonight with high clouds thickening.

Into Saturday, the west northwest flow aloft gradually strengthens toward the day's end, inducing some Stout Ridge top winds to the Sangre de Cristos by late afternoon. Windy conditions will spread from the Central Highlands eastward along the I-40 corridor too Saturday afternoon. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph can be expected across these two areal stretches, and these will be about the only areas able to mix out of the poor ventilation category. Temperatures will warm areawide, but especially in the eastern plains, with all zones running above average for early December. Despite this warming trend, dewpoints should stay high enough to keep relative humidity from dipping into the critical ranges. Winds aloft continue to strengthen significantly into Saturday night and Sunday morning with very high gusts expected to buffet the Central Mountain chain and areas immediately east, perhaps gusting as high as 65-70 mph.

Any cooling that takes place into the daytime Sunday will be subtle and/or negligible with high temperatures remaining above to well above normal. The winds will slowly decrease in speed toward late afternoon Sunday, but excellent ventilation is expected with relative humidity staying at or above 30 percent, even in the warm, downsloping windy plains. Some light rain and high elevation snow will be possible Saturday night and Sunday, mainly in the north central to northwestern zones.

Similar to Saturday night, the winds will restrengthen aloft into Sunday night and Monday morning, pounding the Central Mountain chain of nm again. The strongest winds aloft again arrive in the morning hours with surface speeds not able to reach full mixing potential, but still significant impacts are expected to the higher elevations near the Central Mountain chain, especially the sangres. Temperatures remain above average, and humidity above critical thresholds, through the day Monday.

Winds will by no means relax Tuesday with most zones staying in the breezy to windy category. A change in the pattern then unfolds into Wednesday as a disturbance aloft potentially crosses Colorado, and a surface cold front is dragged into nm. Forecast models still have some inconsistencies with this phenomenon, so the finer details of the temperature and wind forecast will likely undergo big revisions.