Super PACs Dominate Airwaves

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) December 15, 2015 – The volume of GOP presidential ads on the airwaves this election year is up by nearly 45 percent over the same period in 2011, but super PACs are even more dominant than they were in previous cycles. These groups sponsored just 1 percent of ads to this point in 2007 and over two-thirds of ads in 2011, but they sponsored 81 percent from January 1 through December 9, 2015 (a 71 percent increase over 2011 and a 12,000 percent increase over 2007).

“The fight for the nomination is no longer about candidates alone in this post-Citizens United era,” said Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, adding, “The support offered by a super PAC is now a pre-requisite – some might say the foundation – of a candidate’s TV strategy.”

Table 1: Advertising in GOP Presidential Primaries

Year

Candidate

Outside Group

Total

Figures are from January 1 to December 9.
Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

2007

Ads Aired

26,186

291

26,477

Row %

98.9%

1.1%

100%

Cost

$22.2M

$137K

$22.4M

2011

Ads Aired

9,580

20,957

30,567

Row %

31.3%

68.6%

100%

Cost

$3.0M

$14.9M

$17.9M

2015

Ads Aired

8,527

35,743

44,270

Row %

19.3%

80.7%

100%

Cost

$4.8M

$52.2M

$57.0M

% volume increase over 2011

-11%

70.6%

44.8%

% volume increase over 2007

-67.4%

12,183%

67.2%

In looking at the air wars on both sides of the aisle, the battle for the GOP nomination—with many more candidates than on the Democratic side—is about twice as intense, both over the cycle-to-date and in the last two weeks. Ads in the Democratic race total about 22,000 (with 4,500 ads between November 27 and December 9), compared to over 44,000 on the Republican side (with 8,000 in the last two weeks).

Table 2: Presidential Ad Spending and Airings

Since January 1

Past Two Weeks

Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015.
Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Est. Cost
(in millions)

Airings

Est. Cost
(in millions)

Airings

Democratic

13.4

21,907

2.2

4,583

Republican

57.0

44,296

9.4

8,033

Total

70.4

66,203

11.7

12,616

Jeb Bush and super PACs supporting his campaign have sponsored 15,750 ads on broadcast television, national network and national cable television since January 1, at a cost of almost $26 million. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has aired no ads, and Ted Cruz has benefited from only 457 ads since the start of the year (through December 9th).

“We’re seeing a big disconnect between advertising volumes and poll numbers on the Republican side so far this year. Bush and his super PAC have spent more than two and a half times his nearest Republican competitor, Marco Rubio, and yet he sags in the polls,” said Travis N. Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “Meanwhile Donald Trump has aired zero ads and still stands atop the field in national polling, and Ted Cruz, who has aired 34 times fewer ads than Bush, is polling first in many Iowa polls.”

“It’s far too early to call for the death of TV advertising,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “The Republican field is still crowded, which makes for a more challenging advertising environment. It is also important to remember that volume isn’t everything. All ads are not created equal; advertising content and the characteristics of the receiving audience matter and will condition their influence.”

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has double the ad total of her nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders (13,450 to 7,205). Martin O’Malley and former long-shot candidate Larry Lessig have aired very few ads.

Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015.
Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Bush

25.7

15,750

Clinton

8.2

13,450

Sanders

4.2

7,205

Rubio

9.8

6,596

Carson

1.5

4,666

Perry

0.9

3,441

Jindal

2.7

3,413

Kasich

6.3

3,127

Christie

5.7

2,718

Graham

1.2

1,008

Cruz

0.3

457

Walker

0.6

441

Gilmore

0.3

419

Huckabee

0.3

417

Lessig

0.1

362

O'Malley

0.2

197

Paul

0.4

127

Pataki

0.03

101

Fiorina

0.1

88

Biden

0.3

20

Right to Rise, Conservative Solutions Project Lead Group Sponsors

Looking more closely at the groups airing ads on the Republican side, we see differences in the number and type of groups advertising on behalf of each candidate—and in how much they are spending. The sole outside group spending on Bush’s behalf, Right to Rise USA, is a full-disclosure super PAC that has spent an estimated $25 million on over 15,000 ads in support of his candidacy (it has, in fact, sponsored nearly every ad on behalf of Bush), while the most active pro-Marco Rubio group, Conservative Solutions Project, has spent over $8 million on nearly 5,000 ads to back him.

In a change from the last presidential nomination race, almost all advertising sponsored by outside organizations this cycle is from single-candidate groups.

Table 4: Outside Group Sponsors in GOP Presidential Race

Group

Cost (in millions)

Ad Airings

Advocates for…

Type

Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015. Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

America Leads

5.4

2,391

Chris Christie

Super PAC

America Next

0.4

539

Bobby Jindal

c4

America's Liberty PAC

0.4

127

Rand Paul

Super PAC

American Encore

0.1

157

c4

American Future Project

0.1

465

Bobby Jindal

527

American Legacy PAC

0.0003

1

Ben Carson

PAC

Believe Again

2.1

2,409

Bobby Jindal

Super PAC

Carly For America Committee

0.1

88

Carly Fiorina

Super PAC

Club For Growth

0.7

570

PAC

Club For Growth Action

0.06

73

Super PAC

Conservative Solutions PAC

0.8

760

Marco Rubio

Super PAC

Conservative Solutions Project

8.1

4,882

Marco Rubio

c4

Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America

0.3

699

c4

Keep The Promise I

0.005

7

Ted Cruz

Super PAC

Keep the Promise III PAC

0.04

71

Ted Cruz

Super PAC

New Day For America

4.5

1,911

John Kasich

Super PAC

New Day Independent Media Committee, Inc

1.4

802

John Kasich

Super PAC

Opportunity And Freedom PAC

0.9

3,441

Rick Perry

Super PAC

Right To Rise USA

25.2

15,220

Jeb Bush

Super PAC

Security Is Strength PAC

0.9

588

Lindsay Graham

Super PAC

Unintimidated PAC

0.6

441

Scott Walker

Super PAC

We The People, Not Washington

0.03

101

George Pataki

Super PAC

The bulk of outside group advertising so far in the GOP primary has come from full-disclosure groups. Super PACs, which account for 79 percent of group ads on the air, have dominated the airwaves. Traditional PACs account for 2.1 percent of ad airings, and 527 organizations make up an additional 1.3 percent of airings. 501(c)(4) organizations, sometimes referred to as dark money organizations because they do not disclose their donors publicly, are responsible for nearly 18 percent of ad airings (6,330 ads). Advertising by Conservative Solutions Project – a 501(c)(4) organization supporting Marco Rubio – accounts for 77 percent of all dark money ads in the 2016 Republican primary to date.

“It’s noteworthy that Conservative Solutions Project is spending far more than Rubio’s super PAC,” said Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “Rubio is the only candidate who is being backed by a dark money sponsor to such a high degree.”

Table 5: Outside Group Ads in GOP Primary by Type

Type

Disclose
Donors?

Ad Volume

Cost
(in millions)

% of group
volume

Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015. Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

PAC

Yes

749

1.1

2.08%

Super PAC

Yes

28,430

42.4

79.03%

c4

No

6330

9.0

17.60%

527

Yes

465

0.1

1.29%

TOTALS

35,974

52.6

“These new data add clarity to the emerging picture of how money is getting into the 2016 elections,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics. “It is coming mostly from nominally independent groups that exist only to raise unlimited funds in support of a single candidate, and for the first time ever, these de facto extensions of the campaigns aren’t just super PACs. They now include 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations that don’t disclose their donors to the public.”

Ad Campaign Remains Positive

To date, very few ads have been negative. Indeed, of the 66,203 ads aired in both parties’ races for the nominations, 84 percent have promoted a candidate as opposed to attacking a candidate or comparing one candidate against others.

Table 6: Tone of Race by Party and Sponsorship

Positive

Negative

Contrast

Airings

Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015. Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Democratic candidates

99.2%

0.0%

0.8%

21,459

Republican candidates

92.3%

0.0%

7.7%

8,527

Democratic groups

4.5%

51.6%

44.0%

448

Republican groups

73.6%

4.5%

21.9%

35,769

All groups and sponsors

83.9%

2.8%

13.4%

66,203

Boston/Manchester, Des Moines See Most Advertising

The Boston/Manchester media market tops the list for presidential advertising, clocking in at 18,882 airings at an estimated cost of $31.3M. Des Moines, Iowa, is in second with just over 11,000 airings year-to-date. Cedar Rapids, Iowa, is third with nearly 9,500 airings. Other early primary states receiving advertising are South Carolina and Nevada.

Table 7: Top Media Markets in Presidential Nomination Race by Airings

Market

Est. Cost
(in millions)

Airings

Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015. Numbers include broadcast television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Boston, MA/Manchester, NH

31.4

18,882

Des Moines, IA

7.0

11,042

Cedar Rapids, IA

4.5

9,447

Sioux City, IA

2.8

4,901

Charleston, SC

2.1

3,180

Burlington, VT

2.0

3,029

Davenport, IA

1.6

2,775

Columbia, SC

2.3

2,598

Greenville, SC

3.5

2,051

Myrtle Beach, SC

1.3

1,939

Rochester, MN

0.5

1,619

Portland, ME

0.4

925

Ottumwa, IA

0.07

416

Las Vegas, NV

0.3

398

Reno, NV

0.06

311

Omaha, NE

0.02

292

Augusta, GA

0.09

241

Savannah, GA

0.08

229

Charlotte, NC

0.2

181

Table 8 focuses on advertising in the past two weeks (since November 27) and reveals some differences in the strategies employed by the candidates. For instance, almost all ads supporting Bush have been paid for by his super PAC, while Rubio’s campaign has sponsored just over half of airings supporting him. On the Democratic side, all advertising over the past two weeks has been sponsored by the campaigns; groups have refrained from advertising.

Table 8: Candidate and Group Airings (Past Two Weeks)

Figures are from November 27 to December 9, 2015. Numbers include broadcast television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Candidate

Outside Groups

Total

Favored Candidate

Est. Cost

Airings

Est. Cost

Airings

Airings

Bush

175K

128

4.6M

2,427

2,555

Rubio

833K

932

813K

760

1,692

Carson

357K

1,048

1,048

Kasich

327K

414

335K

192

606

Graham

331K

420

420

Gilmore

331K

419

419

Huckabee

331K

417

417

Christie

605K

322

322

Cruz

119K

244

244

Fiorina

134K

88

88

Sanders

1.2M

2,508

2,508

Clinton

1.0M

2,041

2,041

Obamacare Recedes from Candidate Attention

No single issue dominates the Republican race. Table 9 shows the three issues most often mentioned in advertising by candidates and the super PACs and other groups that support them. While Bush, Kasich and Paul have focused on issues of the budget, taxes and jobs, Cruz, Graham and Rubio have focused on international affairs. Perry, Jindal and Carson also frequently mentioned immigration. Obamacare, by contrast, is much less often mentioned: only in ads favoring Cruz is it among the top three issue mentions.

Table 9: Top Issue Mentions by Candidate and Supporting Groups

Candidate

Top Issue

2nd Issue

3rd Issue

Data based on analysis of ads aired from January 1 to December 9, 2015.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

About This Report

Data reported here do not cover local cable buys, only broadcast television, national network and national cable buys. All cost estimates are precisely that: estimates. Disclosure categorization information on outside groups comes from the Center for Responsive Politics.

The Wesleyan Media Project provides real-time tracking and analysis of all political television advertising in an effort to increase transparency in elections. Housed in Wesleyan’s Quantitative Analysis Center – part of the Allbritton Center for the Study of Public Life – the Wesleyan Media Project is the successor to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which disbanded in 2009. It is directed by Erika Franklin Fowler, assistant professor of government at Wesleyan University, Michael M. Franz, associate professor of government at Bowdoin College and Travis N. Ridout, professor of political science at Washington State University. Laura Baum is the Project Manager.

The Wesleyan Media Project is supported by grants from The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation and Wesleyan University. Data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project using Academiclip, a web-based coding tool. The Wesleyan Media Project is partnering this year with both the Center for Responsive Politics, to provide added information on outside group disclosure, and Ace Metrix, to assess ad effectiveness.

About Wesleyan University
Wesleyan University, in Middletown, Conn., is known for the excellence of its academic and co-curricular programs. With more than 2,900 undergraduates and 200 graduate students, Wesleyan is dedicated to providing a liberal arts education characterized by boldness, rigor and practical idealism. For more, visit www.wesleyan.edu.

About the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation
Knight Foundation supports transformational ideas that promote quality journalism, advance media innovation, engage communities and foster the arts. We believe that democracy thrives when people and communities are informed and engaged. For more, visit www.knightfoundation.org.

About the Center for Responsive Politics
The Center for Responsive Politics is the nation’s premier research group tracking money in U.S. politics and its effect on elections and public policy. Nonpartisan, independent and nonprofit, the organization aims to create a more educated voter, an involved citizenry and a more transparent and responsive government. CRP’s award-winning website, OpenSecrets.org, is the most comprehensive resource available anywhere for federal campaign contribution and lobbying data and analysis.