Tag Archives: USA

It is definitely not news what I noticed recently, but it is something worth being aware of: a lot of so-called news are either fake, or are being twisted towards whoever broadcasts them. One of the areas where that happens a lot recently is economy.

Economy (and I am talking here country economy) is like a big super tanker on the sea. You cannot turn it around on a dime. You cannot stop it whenever you wish. When you turn your steering wheel, it takes some time before tanker reacts. Too much speed, and you end up destroying the port. Too little, and you will never get there. Currents and wind (respective world trends) can help you out or not.

Unfortunately people in general believe what politicos advertise as their success, although in fact it comes from their predecessors. Economy happens to react to changes with some delay, as that big tanker – make a decision today, reap benefits in some years. Or deal with grave consequences in some years. So populists use past decisions resulting in today’s success in their respective countries as their doing. Poland is one example, US is the other.

Trump is using trends in world economy as his doing. Most of the corporate decisions (especially in public companies) are not spur of the moment things, it is not so that on Monday someone decides to build a factory in the USA and on Tuesday same week construction work starts. Mostly those decisions are being carefully prepared. That takes time, often years. People making those decisions (usually groups of them) consider trends and each one is still a risk. Some fail, some don’t. Those which don’t are being advertised as result of something that Trump did. He didn’t. His decisions will show their consequences in years to come, when other president will have to deal with them.

Same in Poland. Mr Kaczynski and his propaganda use current trends in Polish economy as a result of changes he introduces. Not true. Fake news and twisting news to own advantage can only be seen from historical perspective, not from today’s media news. Result of those changes will be seen possibly after current government. It may very well be that those will give good reason for that new government to become unpopular.

Not many people think that way. What counts, is today. Forget the future and the fact where the country goes. Different thinking is required – I dare say, thinking as such is required. People, start thinking. Please.

This image was on his web site on the 8th of November, meaning that his forecast was wrong right up to the last minutes of the election. Why? I can only speculate, but I base this speculation on election results in Poland and in Hungary and on recent successes of all populist parties in Europe. My speculation is this: all polls check what people say, not what people feel or really think. We live in times where all issues where politics have failed us (income inequality, immigrants, refugees, unemployment, lack of future) have become playing field for all kinds of populists. They know how people feel and use it to gain power – but have no real solutions to those problems. Look at Brexit. It was easy to play on people’s feelings, but after it was done, masters behind that referendum disappeared, leaving a big mess behind (here too, all sorts of forecasts showed Britain staying in the EU). I am sorry to say to all Americans, Trump will not leave. You are stuck with him for at least 4 years – unless you will impeach him for something. Which is not that unlikely.

Similarly I guess all the recent elections were lost to populists, and there is plenty to come, next one being Germany. Those parties promise money, or building walls, or whatever – and sometimes really keep their promises by paying for them with taxpayers money – and even though your reason tells you that they are not the best solution, your heart wins, because you feel in your heart that this is what you would like to happen, even if it logically cannot as there are no easy solutions to all current problems. And you vote for them. Lying at the same time to all polls you came across, so you don’t look stupid.

My advice to Nat Silver and all other guys (including the one from Stanford who ate a bug on national TV) is to add “feeling factor” to their algorithms. The more all issues are hot in terms of beliefs and feelings, the bigger impact that factor should have over cold data based on interviews. Eventually you will be able to adjust over people’s lies.