No chance of EU-US trade deal in 2014

Sober realism is the prevailing mood about an emerging transatlantic trade deal ahead of the arrival of the president of the United States, Barack Obama, in Brussels on 26 March for a US-European Union summit.

The latest week-long round of negotiations on the transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) ended on Friday with the US’s trade representative, Michael Froman, merely saying he was “generally pleased” about progress. Previous rounds concluded on an upbeat mood.

This fourth round, held in Brussels on 10-14 March, was the trickiest to date, with negotiators moving further into the details of a potential deal. So far, offers have been exchanged only on tariffs. Initial hopes that the agreement could be concluded – or be within sight of conclusion – by the time Karel De Gucht ends his term as European commissioner for trade this year are now discounted. EU officials talk of the deal possibly being concluded in 2015, while US officials say that Washington had never spoken of a 2014 target.

The US’s continuing failure to conclude a 12-country trans-Pacific trade agreement also gives reason for caution about the timeline for a transatlantic deal. Both the TPP and the TTIP are viewed as new-generation deals whose value relies less on a reduction of tariffs and more on convergence of strategic thinking.

Debate in the US about the TPP is currently dominated by traditional concerns about agriculture. Similarly, agricultural issues have come to the fore in US politicians’ discussions about the TTIP, while De Gucht has had to spend much of his time in public appearances allaying historically prominent concerns for Europe – health issues relating to food.

TTIP’s potential impact on established interest groups, notably farmers, is expected to receive increasing attention as national politicians consider the implications for their electorates when the talks move towards the closing phases. Local anxieties may also be stirred by ambitions – chiefly on the EU’s side – to open up the market for public contracts.

In an effort to drum up support for the putative deal at the local level, De Gucht spent most of the fourth round of talks away from Brussels, in the southern states of the US.