Welcome to Breitbart News’s daily live updates of the 2016 horse race.

It’s moving day today, especially for Republicans, as the South Carolina primary will reshuffle the GOP field (polls close at 7 pm EST). Democrats caucus in Nevada (doors open at 2 pm EST) in what is essentially a very early rubber match in the early series of nominating contests.

10:34: As it gets later at night, Dems/Mainstream media reveal inconvenient truths. CNN’s Van Jones says that “people of color” have been telling him that they support Trump, so he says the media should not dismiss Trump’s chances of winning over some minorities.

10:20: Newsweek’s Matthew Cooper: ‘Trump has no lane. He’s a Hummer doing 90. weaving in and out of traffic. He is dominating all elements of the GOP demographic coalition not just those who are angry’:

Donald Trump’s victory in the South Carolina primary demonstrated his strength among Republican voters of all stripes and even helped force Jeb Bush, once considered the likely frontrunner in the GOP presidential contest, to suspend his campaign–a sign of how the real estate mogul has upended politics.

Despite his dust-up with Pope Francis, the state’s governor endorsing his rival and the appearance in the state of George W. Bush to help his brother, Trump won big in South Carolina. According to exit polls, he carried veterans and older voters, virtually tied Ted Cruz for the evangelical vote and dominated among voters with no college, some college and college degrees. He won moderates and conservatives. His only weaknesses were among sekf-identified “very conservative” voters, the more affluent and voters with graduate degrees.

None of this means that Trump is unstoppable. But he’s also won secular New Hampshire, where less than a quarter of the state’s Republican primary voters were evangelical. (In South Carolina, it’s 69 percent.) He came in second in the Iowa Caucuses. The southern states that dominate the March 1 and March 15 primary dates also seem like very fertile ground for the real estate mogul. “Let’s put this thing away,” said a very competant Trump as he declared victory and looked forward to the upcoming contests.

[…]

It’s become cliche in the presidential campaign to talk about candidates having different lanes–an outsider lane, an establishmient lane, etc. But Trump has no lane. He’s a Hummer doing 90. weaving in and out of traffic. He is dominating all elements of the GOP demographic coalition not just those who are angry. At this point here is no certainty, as Washington insisders had once hoped, that as the field narrowed Trump would be stopped either because voters somehow came to their senses or because the party would coalesce around a less controversial alternative. But that seems less likely. The thinning field has actually strengthened Trump and while it’s possible that in a one-on-one race Cruz or Rubio could beat Trump but so far, with the exception of one outlier poll, the evidence suggests that Trump could beat them.

10:15: Kasich thinks it’s a four-man race:

Kasich: once there were 8 governors running for President and now there is only one.

10:01: Wonder if they are proud of him, arguably this cycle’s biggest loser. Have no worries, the mainstream media will continue to let him give advice and not realize it is like having Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan instruct basketball players how to make free throws:

9:50: She’s right [Tony Lee: As I’ve always said, Trump can win the primary by winging it but he can’t beat the Clinton/Dem/mainstream media machine (of which Haberman/New York Times are a part] by winging it in the general election when the klieg lights get brighter and brighter and when the media scrutinize every movement, utterance. It’s the same scenario Palin would have faced had she run]:

Here's the next challenge should Trump win TX and/or Fla – someone trying to convince him he needs a presidential-strength campaign

9:40: Cruz, who worked in George W. Bush’s administration and wanted to be a bigger part of the Bush administration, praises Jeb! for not going into the gutter. He praises Bush for his “remarkable campaign.” Cruz thanks his South Carolina team. Cruz says “we are effectively tied for second place” [Tony Lee: decimal points matter–ask Hillary Clinton after Iowa 2008] but the has defied expectations each time. He says the Washington Cartel is terrified that the conservative grassroots is rising up. Cruz asks for a moment of silence of Justice Antonin Scalia. He says “Washington power brokers” will not decide Scalia’s appointment. “It will be decided be We the People.” Cruz says he is the only campaign that has beaten and can beat Donald Trump. “That’s why Donald relentlessly attacks us and ignores the other candidates,” Cruz says.

9:15: Rubio trying to look optimistic with his 2nd or 3rd place finish even after his advisers touted that he would win South Carolina. He congratulates Messrs. Bush and Trump. He praises Jeb! as the “greatest governor in the history of Florida.” Rubio says the “children of the Reagan revolution are ready to assume the mantle of leadership.” He says they are ready to do for the next generation “what Ronald Reagan did to us.” Rubio talks about 21st century conservatism and and talks up Sen. Tim Scott’s story, Haley’s story, and his story. Rubio says conservatives will fight for single moms, fathers who work two jobs to give kids opportunities they never had, high school students who go to schools across towns to better their lots in life.

“We will fight for you because we come from where you are now, we live the way you are living now,” Rubio says. He says the race “practically speaking” is down to three men and asks people to join his campaign because he gives the GOP the best chance to unite the party and the country.

Rubio says he will always remember South Carolina as the place of “new beginnings” and “fresh start.”

[Rubio’s speech would have been a lot better had he won South Carolina like his advisers had predicted and with all of the major endorsements that he received. It seems like he is trying too hard to look like a “winner” and the speech seems like it would be better as a warm-up act at the convention given that he hasn’t won a state yet.]

9:05: Trump: “let’s put this thing away.”

9:02: We love our military and “We love our police. They’re not being treated properly.” Trump says we are going to build our military so big, so powerful that “nobody is going to mess with us, folks.” Trump says we’ll get the equipment that the general needs and not want lawmakers in Congress who are controlled by special interests tell them that they need. Trump says he is self-funding his campaign. Trump says we’re going to take care of our vets. Crowd chants “USA! USA! USA!” after Trump says his supporters make up an “incredible movement.” Trump says “Make America Great Again” is maybe the “greatest of all time.”

[Tony Lee: Trump is getting better with his post-election speeches but it has to be better, tighter. For what it’s worth, though, this is only Trump’s third post-election speech ever. So it is a work in progress.]

9:00: Coulter fired up:

TRUMP: "We're going to do the wall. And who's going to pay for the wall?" MEXICO!!!!!!!

8:52: Trump begins by thanking the people of South Carolina. He says the Palmetto State is a “special state.” Trump thanks his family. He says there is a hospital ready just in case she goes in labor. Trump thanks Henry McMaster for backing him earlier in the process. He says he will take him over Gov. Haley anytime because “we won.” Melania congratulates South Carolina and says Trump will be the “best president.” Ivanka says Trump is an “incredibly hard worker” and “together we’ll make America Great Again.”

Trump says he will get the support of a lot of the other candidates as they drop out. Trump says there is nothing easy running for president–tough, nasty.. but “beautiful” when you win. “We’re going to start winning for our country,” he says. Trump says America doesn’t win on trade. Crowd yells that Mexico is going to pay for the wall.

Jeb! tells supporters that the presidency is bigger than any one person. He says he is proud of the campaign he has run to unify the country. But he says that the people of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have spoken and he respect their decision. Jeb gets choked up and says “and tonight, I am suspending my campaign.” Jeb congratulates his competitors who are “remaining on the island.”

7:55: Tony Lee: The media/GOP establishment not coronating Trump after tonight actually benefits him–he can play the underdog/anti-establishment card all the way to the convention. The argument that 60% of voters are not for Trump also does not carry that much water… pundits never say, for instance, that 80% of the voters are against Rubio. It will be interesting to see if the mainstream/pro-Rubio media on the right hold Rubio’s campaign to account for setting their 3-2-1 marker. Rubio didn’t get 2nd in New Hampshire. And he did not win South Carolina. Bronze-medal winners don’t appear on Wheaties boxes.

7:52: Matt Drudge: Bring On Trump v. Hillary:

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/701206667342569472

7:48: Entrance polls may have been wrong about Sanders’s support among Latinos:

7:40: On CNN, Dana Bash says we have to all pause and just accept the reality that Donald Trump convincingly won South Carolina. She seems flabbergasted like the rest of the media/GOP establishment (The Washington Post‘s resident dunce Jennifer Rubin doubted that Trump would get 3-5% in the polls after his announcement speech in which Trump made illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign.).

Give CNN’s David Chalian some credit for not drinking/gulping the GOP establishment kook-aid that his GOP establishment sources try to force him to guzzle. He says that Trump is best positioned to win the GOP nomination and people need to come to grips with that.

7:00: Polls close in South Carolina. Networks say it’s a three-way race (Trump/Rubio/Cruz). Fox News’s says it is a “close race” in South Carolina and “too early” to project a winner.

6:52: Chair of Party with No Minority Presidential Candidates Slams Republicans for Not Being More Like the “Rainbow that Looks Like America’

Though Democrats do not have any minorities running for president, DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz says Democrats represent the “rainbow that looks like America” while Republicans put “a little bit of the rainbow in the front row” at their convention.

6:47: DNC Chair Wasserman Shultz tries her best to spin her party’s “super-delegates” selection process. She says the media need to report in a different way and not add the pledged super delegates at the end of every contest because the super delegates can change their mind. On MSNBC, Maddow acknowledges that many rank-and-file Dems are rightfully upset at the “VIP votes.”

6:46: Sanders predicts “one of the greatest political upsets in the history of the United States” at the Democratic convention.

6:43: Sanders believes he has an “excellent” chance to win many Super Tuesday states. He says his campaign is up against a powerful Super PAC that receives money from Wall Street and special interests before Super Tuesday. He asks for small donations to help him combat Clinton’s Super PAC.

6:38: Bernie Sanders is taking the stage in Nevada. He mentions that he was 25 points behind five weeks ago and made progress. Sanders says Clinton ran an “aggressive” and “effective” campaign and he applauds the Clinton campaign for its efforts. Sanders says his campaign is about bringing more people into he political process and again blasts the corrupt campaign finance system that is undermining democracy. He will not let billionaires and Super PACs by elections. He says the American people are catching on that we have a “rigged economy.” He also slams the country’s broken criminal justice system. Wall Street executives whose illegal behavior destroys the economy do not get criminal records, Sanders says. His says “our job is to bring justice back to the criminal justice system.”

6:30: Brian Williams does his best to downplay Clinton’s health concerns. He says Clinton has been trying to suppress a cough all week and her unusual coughing fit was the subject of certain websites last week.

6:22: Clinton now speaks about “systemic racism” and reforming criminal justice/immigration systems. Clinton always sounds like she is lecturing when speechifying before large crowd, as if she doesn’t realize how she sounds when she tries to compete with crowd noise.

Clinton says she knows what young people are up against and says it has to be about “what we’re going to build together” and not just what we give to you. Clinton says she will propose new ways for more Americans to get involved in national service.

Appealing directly to minority voters: Clinton says imagine a tomorrow where “no child grows up in the shadow of discrimination and under the specter of deportation.”

[This was Clinton’s first “victory” speech without an asterisk and her husband seems just as–if not more–relieved than Clinton]

6:16: An exuberant Hillary Clinton thanks Nevada supporters. She says she is “so thrilled” and “grateful” to all of her supporters.

“This one’s for you,” she says. She said her supporters turned out in every corner of the state. She said hotel and casino workers never wavered and “students with too much debt” and “small business owners who never go off the clock” all supported her. She says this is “your campaign” and it is a “campaign to break down every barrier that holds you back.”

Clinton says there is so much that is wrong in this country (but doesn’t mention much of what she is speaking about has occurred under Obama’s presidency). Clinton pivots to South Carolina and talks about “crumbling classrooms.” She talks about Flint’s “poison water” that residents were forced to drink because the governor wanted to save money. She says Americans have a right to be angry and talks about wanting to get secret, unaccountable money out of politics (Clinton always says this with a straight face). She says Wall Street should not be able to threaten Main Street after saying that the next Supreme Court Justice shouldn’t let corporations buy elections.

5:53: Observe how the network anchors and reporters “report” on Hillary Clinton’s Nevada win vs. how they “report” on South Carolina’s GOP primary. It is pretty obvious which person is the home team to the “homer” reporters/anchors. Nobody is going to mistake any of them for the political equivalent of Vin Scully to say the least.

5:47: More exit polling from South Carolina, per CBS. Terrorism top concern; 40% ‘angry,’ Only 7% happy with federal government:

Early exit polls in South Carolina suggest that voters see terrorism as the most important issue facing the country (32 percent), followed by those who see the economy (28 percent) and government spending (27 percent) as the most critical issues. In contrast only one out of 10 respondents said that immigration is the most important issue facing the nation.

More than half of voters said they are dissatisfied with the way the government is working and 40 percent said they are angry. Only 7 percent said they are satisfied with how the federal government is working.

GOP voters in South Carolina are almost evenly split on whether they prefer a candidate from the establishment vs. a political outsider. Forty-eight percent said they prefer that the candidate has experience and 46 percent said they prefer someone from outside the establishment. This closely mirrors what voter in New Hampshire told pollsters.

5:43: Ten points > than NH:

https://twitter.com/NolteNC/status/701173561860497408

5:40: Nate Cohn doesn’t think Sanders will end up winning the Hispanic vote in Nevada:

5:33: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), who endorsed Clinton last week, said on MSNBC that Clinton will “win comfortably” in South Carolina and that she will get the “lion’s share” of the votes in the Palmetto State next week.

5:30: Hillary Clinton is ecstatic. Paul Begala is right in this case–there are no spreads in politics. A big win for Clinton before South Carolina’s primary. Curiously, South Carolina’s primary is positioned to help Clinton potentially get some more momentum:

To everyone who turned out in every corner of Nevada with determination and heart: This is your win. Thank you. -H

“I think Trump brings new people to the table. I think we’re expecting record turnout. We saw record turnout in Iowa, we saw record turnout in New Hampshire. I hope that a record number of people turn out tomorrow because if they do, I think Mr. Trump’s going to have a good day,” campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told reporters. “I think it’s going to be close.”

5:00 – With 76% reporting in Nevada, Hillary Clinton leads by +4 points, 52% to 48%. The narrative, however, is not good for Hillary. Bernie is proving he can compete in a state that is not all-white. What we’re hearing a lot of from the pundits is that Hillary is in for a long campaign.

4:42 – From coin tosses to high-card, Hillary Clinton cannot stop beating Bernie Sanders when luck takes the place of voters. To break tied precincts in Iowa, Hillary won every coin toss — 6 out of 6 — the odds of which are less than 2%. In Nevada today, Democrats play a game of high-low card to determine a tie and super-lucky Hillary just won with an ace to Bernie’s 6 in the precinct of Pahrump, NV.

Hillary is now 7 for 7 in the game of chance against Bernie.

4:29: Clinton 51.4, Sanders 48.5. 24% reporting.

4:28: Sanders wining Latinos and Whites per entrance polls:

https://twitter.com/NolteNC/status/701155641860214785

4:25: From Breitbart’s Michelle Moons in Nevada:

Harry Reid’s precinct overwhelmingly supported Clinton, two Bernie supporters (of three) had family members on the Clinton side which took 22 votes. Reid did not take a side

Early caucus-goers in Nevada say that the two most important issue facing the country are the economy (34 percent) and income inequality (29 percent). This is followed by health care at 21 percent. Only 9 percent of Democratic caucus-goers so far have suggested that terrorism is the most important issue facing the nation today.

3:27: Big-money GOP donors still scared to go after Trump (or they don’t trust the hacks who only care about getting candidates and donors to pay them big dollars who are trying to get these anti-Trump efforts up and running):

3:20: More analysis of entrance polls from ABC: Two-thirds caucusing for first time, one-third “very liberal,”… half say next president should continue Obama’s policies:

Among caucus goers under age 45, three-quarters in preliminary entrance poll results support Sanders for the nomination; among those 45 and older, Clinton easily prevails.

There’s also a wave of newcomers in the caucuses: Two-thirds say it’s their first time attending a Nevada Democratic presidential caucus. Sanders does better in this group, while Clinton pushes back strongly among repeat attenders.

A remarkable seven in 10 caucus goers describe themselves as liberals, including a third “very” liberal – far higher than their share in the 2008 Nevada caucuses, 45 and 18 percent, respectively. Liberals are a better group for Sanders, moderates for Clinton.

[…]

At the same time, about half of caucus goers say the next president should generally continue Obama’s policies, a very strong group for Clinton; about four in 10 prefer more liberal policies, an overwhelmingly pro-Sanders group. (There was a 55-33 percent split on this question in Iowa, where Clinton narrowly won, compared with 40-42 percent in in New Hampshire, where Sanders romped.)

3:15: Entrance polls: Clinton only has five-point lead among non-white voters in Nevada

According to preliminary entrance polls (voters can change their mind at the caucus sites so they aren’t that reliable) the Nevada caucus electorate is 64% white, 12% black, 17% Hispanic. Clinton has a five-point lead among non-white voters, according to entrance polls. Clinton leads with white college graduates (50%-45%) while Sanders leads with white non-college graduates (52%-46%).

2:15: NBC’s Kristen Welker says the Clinton campaign has been surprised by the level of support Clinton is receiving among Hispanics, and that is why her campaign is doubling down on African-American voters. Sanders has put DREAMers like Erika Andiola in top positions in his campaign. Interestingly, Hillary Clinton first made waves by hiring illegal immigrant DREAMer Lorella Praeli to work on her campaign but the Sanders campaign has been much better at showcasing its Latino activist staffers:

1:30: After attending Justice Scalia’s funeral, Ted Cruz says Scalia’s passing underscores the stakes of this election because the Court hangs in the balance. He praises Scalia’s “extraordinary legacy” and for being a “lion of the law”/understanding the importance of the text/original meaning of the Constitution. Cruz says Scalia “changed the course of American legal history” by ferociously defending the Bill of Rights, and he says his daughters’s liberties are more secure because of Scalia.

1:28 – Earlier today, Trump blasted Cruz over robocalls:

—

Lying #Ted Cruz just (on election day) came out with a sneak and sleazy Robocall. He holds up the Bible but in fact is a true lowlife pol!

A superPAC supporting Ted Cruz is hitting Donald Trump in South Carolina radio ads and robo calls for his support of the removal of the Confederate battle flag from the State Capitol grounds. Another robo call out Friday night is also hitting Trump for appearing to be supportive of “forward motion” on LGBT equality.

Yet among Hispanic voters, what had been a two-to-one or better Clinton lead for the past six months has narrowed dramatically in the two weeks following the Iowa Caucuses. Where our surveys had shown Clinton leading by 20 percentages points or better during December and January, her advantage had reduced to just three percentage points (46 to 43 percent) on our most recent week of tracking (from February 8-February 14).

—

11:42 am – Trump asks if Obama would have attended Justice Antonin Scalia’s funeral if it were held at a mosque:

—

I wonder if President Obama would have attended the funeral of Justice Scalia if it were held in a Mosque? Very sad that he did not go!

11:00 am – Final polls out of Nevada, per the Real Clear Politics polls of polls out of Nevada, shows a squeaker; Hillary is just +2.5 points ahead of Bernie.

—

10:58 am – Final polls out of South Carolina, per the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, shows Trump ahead by +13.

Trump 32%, Rubio 19%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 11%, Kasich, 9%, Carson 7%.

—

10:51 am – Consequential day today for both political parties. If Trump can win in South Carolina, he will be hard to stop. If Sanders can win or come close in Nevada, Bernie Sanders will prove he can win in a state that is not all white. Polls close tonight.