Weekend Review

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60

Monday, 9/17: -$2.10

Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60

Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50

Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

don't you think QE will be continued past the 'wealth effect' failure in the DOW ..........to finance the country until the currency comes to a crisis point and then there is a partial default?

or maybe you believe that crisis point is reached in mid 2014.......probly it is what your charts tell you.

What i meant is that the efficiency of QE to prop up wealth effect (without increasing inflation heavily, remeber- that is another debate that needs to be covered a bit more thoroughly, as it misleads people into thinking that GOLD and SILVER prices are somehow linked to the actual inflation visible as CPI or Shadowstats- they are not, the are linked only to the USA debt and money supply arising from it, while everyday inflation would appear if USD would circulate- but they do not , at least not enough to bring this monetary inflation into real economy) will degrade to 0. If CPI kind inflation gets too big, by further devaluation of USD, the things will go out of hand, business will stop as metrics disappear, and there will be no wealth effect whatsoever. Of course, if there will be no huge inflation in real economy which without QEs would have been in deflationary gap spiral already from 2009, printing will continue longer than effect will be 0, but not too much longer as it is driving USA debt to unsustainable levels and threatening with real hyperinflation which will arise if USA default will be deemed imminent ( which it is) . So, at one point of the game, the printing will have to be stopped, and partial default engineered in a way that brings NOT inflation, but deflation. The whole policy of the USA is already from perhaps before 2008 moving in the direction that would make such partial default possible. That partial default is a thing that my charts predict ( and hence end of QEs ) in about early 2016. And after that, collapse of the PM bubble.

Have You ever seen a banker that would accept hyperinflation ( that is , cancelation of all debts nominated in USD the same bankers have been giving out for decades?) . You think, but they will get collateral! . Imagine a banker getting 2% when inflation is 10%, not to speak about hyperinflation. If the currency remains strong, banker will get collateral if loan is defaulted. If its not defaulted, he will receive interest payments in good money. If money is inflated, he will receive REPAYMENT of the loan in worthless paper. So, bankers will make a choice to default USA debt, partially, in a way that is deflationary or neutral for USD. That will be in FEDs hands, as it seems today. My favorite idea for today is that government will default to the FED, and the FED will have worhless treasuries in its asset size. Inflationary would be repricing of other assets by accounting tricks to move the assets back in line with liabilities - FRN in paper and digital. Deflationary would be to demand more solid collateral from banks that have loans from FED, to recreate the asset side , which will create a chain reaction in banking system, drying out credit=deflating money supply. That is why PM prices will then drop.

QE3 generates speculative frenzy which may drive PM prices up for a short time faster than exponential they have been following but as such, 1 trillion addition to US debt within a year only ads about 6% to USA public debt and 3% to total debt ( incl. private/corporate) , so PM prices should add these 6% or 3% to the usual growth of USA public debt by about 6-10% a year , and less so in total debt- so PM prices due to monetary inflation+QE3 should increase around 10% /year in 2012-2013. However, real inflation lags far behind despite Shadowstats etc as most of this new money does not circulate- not because FED controls it, but because everyone is deleveraging and afraid to invest. Capital preservation instead of accumulation.

So , yes , I think QE effects will vanish from all spheres in end of 2014, and after 1-2 years bankers will wind up this episode in a massive deflationary event- which will involve partial default on debt owned to FED. Before that, US military will make sure that USD is still worlds reserve currency , may be even more so, accepted for e.g Central Asia resources and military protection racket that most (ALL) Western countries have outsourced to the USA.

At the same time, military engagements will serve to policize the country to bring population under feudal control of government vassals - bureaucracy, technocrats, specialists police, etc, - intermediaries between politicians and voters.

After 2016-2017 when deflation will set in, worldwide, militarization will remain the only deflationary gap closing activity so actively unstable world will be preferable to the USA in that time, but arms race will gain momentum in all able countries. I do not think any big conflicts will happen yet as no one is ready to oppose USA in conventional warfare, and nuclear threats are not made so easily.

So the USA will continue to expand the empire to reduce the costs of resources and labor. So will other potential empire builders- China, Russia + someone, may be Europe. What ever the coalitions, in some time there will be again 2 or 3 blocks (empires) with largely similar potential and aim for one empire under their leadership, as dwindling resource base will ask for further elimination of transaction costs by removing all barriers- just to retain status quo. Nation states will play no role in this-in scarcity, they are unaffordable.

Something like this should unravel after 2016-2017 and continue for many years as empires strengthen around their cores. And then...

Of course, on a brighter note we may see new accumulated energy source being made available to everyone. But, as Tainter has put it, under dwindling economy, the resources spent on research will be eaten up by more basic needs and militarization, hence the effort for new energy source will be decimated and, may be that would be enough to kill possible success.

I may have shared this here at some point, but since it's on topic I'll share again for anyone who missed it. Full disclosure, I'm not and never have been an LDS member. That said, this collection of articles titled 'LDS Preparedness Manual' is bar none the best I've seen. The Later Day Saints know their stuff when it comes to emergency preparedness. Given this manual's breadth and depth, not all of the information may be relevant to your situation. And for those who are easily aggravated by the religious or other aspects of the manual, I'd simply ask that you take what's valuable to you and chuck the rest. ;) I'm not interested in debating the contents of the manual. However again I've found this resource detailed and extremely valuable to my preparedness endeavors.

You know that gold was made illegal by FDR in 1933 and confiscated from the American people. You know that gold bullion remained illegal for Americans to own until 1975.

You think politicians that push for war should be sent to fight on the front lines. If they are unable, their children should go.

You want your food to be labeled GMO so that you can make your own decisions on what you are consuming.

You grow your own food.

You buy raw milk.

You think food and energy should be included in inflation calculations.

You are aware that the Department of Homeland Security has purchased 1.2 billion rounds of ammo in the past year.

You question whether said ammo purchases are in anticipation of a Normandy beach style landing by Al Qaeda.

You think allowing a small group of unelected people (The Federal Reserve) to print unlimited amounts of money and distribute it as they please might not be a good idea.

If you answered yes to more than five of the above, you might be a conspiracy theorist. You also may be on the government’s terror watch list. Be very alarmed and report it to the authorities immediately should you discover your neighbors engaged in such uncivilized thought.

Set up the same charts a few days ago and acted accordingly. On a 4hr chart with the lower line extending from June 23rd or so to now, and the upper line hitting the peak RSI on August 23rd to now, really shows how tight the wedge is.

I would post the image but haven't figured out how to without uploading the chart to a website, Netdania can be used for anyone that wants to confirm this.

China releases financial reform plan

Updated: 2012-09-18 10:06

(Xinhua)

BEIJING -- The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, on Monday released a financial reform plan for the 2011-2015 period.

The plan includes reforms regarding the marketization of exchange and interest rates and the convertibility of the yuan under China's capital account, as well as plans to encourage more private capital to enter the financial sector.

Government intervention regarding small-scale financial activity will be reduced and the government's role will be further clarified during the reform process, the plan states.

The liberalization of interest rates will be pushed forward progressively and reforms of the mechanism used to calculate the yuan's exchange rate will occur steadily, the plan states.

Further studies regarding direct trading between the yuan and other currencies in emerging markets will be conducted, according to the plan.

Authorities will allow freer cross-border capital flow and boost the convertibility of the yuan under China's capital account, according to the plan.

Authorities will encourage private capital to participate in the reform of banks, securities firms and insurance companies, as well as guide private capital to expand investment in financial organizations, the plan states, adding that the government also supports private capital in setting up rural banks, credit companies and capital cooperatives.

By 2015, the value-added output of the nation's financial industry will account for five percent of the gross domestic product, while the value of direct financing by non-financial organizations will account for at least 15 percent of the total social financing value, according to the plan.

Updated: 2012-09-18 09:11

By Wang Xiaotian (China Daily)

China is aiming to make more market reforms to its financial system, according to a plan for the years 2011 to 2015.

Toward that end, it is seeking to further liberalize interest rates and exchange rates and make it easier for private holders of capital to enter the market, said a statement released on Monday by the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank.

In response, analysts said the plan lacks details, such as a schedule for certain important matters.

The plan calls for an eventual liberalization of interest rates, aiming to achieve that goal by allowing the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, or Shibor, to play the dominant role in determining market interest rates.

The liberalization of the rates, it said, will be achieved through the "free pricing of alternative financial products". The plan also said various types of capital accounts will be opened up one by one - first those related to direct investments, then those concerning securities investment, and finally those related to lending, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co Ltd.

"The biggest regret about this plan is that it has failed to give us a schedule or numerical target for the proposed reforms to the yuan's exchange rate and interest rate liberalization," Lu said.

The plan said China will set up a mechanism that will rely on market forces to directly determine the exchange rate of the yuan against emerging market currencies, and the yuan and those currencies will be traded in the interbank foreign exchange market.

The plan also calls for the establishment of a supervisory system to monitor the flow of domestic and foreign currencies across borders and for encouraging holders of private capital to set up rural banks and lending companies.

The government also promised to establish a procedure that will allow financial institutions to exit the Chinese market. And it called for the establishment of a deposit insurance system and the adoption of a bankruptcy law for financial institutions...

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- City authorities in Zimbabwe's second largest city are appealing to home owners to flush their toilets at a specified time as a way to unblock sewers after days of severe water rationing.

Bulawayo City Council has asked its more than 1 million residents to flush their toilets simultaneously at 7:30 p.m. Saturday when water supplies are restored. City officials say "synchronized flushing" is needed to clear waste that would have accumulated in sanitary facilities which will have been affected by days of water outages.

Turd, you're becoming an outright expert analyst. I await the fulfillment of your prediction. Santa has always said that the shorts at some point will get a religious experience they'll never forget. The time seems real close.

A Pakistani government minister has offered a $100,000 (£61,616) reward for the death of the maker of an anti-Islam film produced in the US.

Railways Minister Ghulam Ahmad Bilour said he would pay the reward for the "sacred duty" out of his own pocket.

A government spokesman condemned the remarks and said it was considering taking action against Mr Bilour.

The comments came a day after at least 20 people died in clashes between anti-film protesters and Pakistani police.

Friday's violence occurred in cities throughout Pakistan, with Karachi and Peshawar among the worst hit.

"I will pay whoever kills the makers of this video $100,000," the minister said. "If someone else makes other similar blasphemous material in the future, I will also pay his killers $100,000.

"I call upon these countries and say: Yes, freedom of expression is there, but you should make laws regarding people insulting our Prophet. And if you don't, then the future will be extremely dangerous."...

Well if a corporation is legally a person, why can't the Corporation vote in our elections ? If a corporation is legally a person, why can't a corporation breathe, drive a car, take a walk, run, eat, sleep, poop and pee ? Why can't a corporation get sick, get a sunburn or die ?

Obviously, a corporation is only limited to being a corporation and has no power as a person.

Apparently who ever came up with the idiotic idea that a corporation is legally a person did not think this thing through.

"A study of the plant and animal life found in a jar of ordinary pond water. Illustrates and explains the difference between microscopic plants and animals; between one-celled and many-celled organisms; the meaning of colonial organization; and the various processes of food-gathering, digestion and reproduction."

Public domain film from the Library of Congress Prelinger Archive, slightly cropped to remove uneven edges, with the aspect ratio corrected, and mild video noise reduction applied.

"Greece's ultra-nationalist party Golden Dawn (Chrysi Avgi) has inaugurated a new office in New York City, to reach out to the Greek diaspora. A branch of the political party is already operational in Melbourne, Australia.

According to Ekathimerini two polls this weekend have placed Golden Dawn as the third political party in Greece, on nine percent of the vote. Their rise in popularity, which Digital Journal reported as standing at 22 percent, means that the ultra-nationalist party has now overtaken PASOK in public opinion. Golden Dawn is now reaching out to the Greek diaspora, opening a branch of the political party in New York City. The party's New York website says:
"The Golden Dawn is the only political party in Greece that unapologetically stands for the sovereignty, security, and dignity of the Greek people.The party intends to reverse decades of unlimited third world immigration which has brought crime, unemployment, disease and possibly terrorism to the once peaceful Greek cities.
We stand with the Greek people who have been driven to poverty and despair by the imposition of the genocidal IMF and European Union austerity policies that are decimating the population and turning Greece into a slave state.
Our goals are to promote and support the Golden Dawn’s nationalist ideals and vision for Greece among the Greek diaspora. We must resist and overcome the genocidal multi- culturalist, and anti-Hellenic agenda of the New World Order."
Thus far the party has collected ,medicines, food and clothing from the diaspora in the U.S. to send to Greece."

These people are a contractor for MREs - and each box is $70, not the $125 in your store. However, I've noticed the quality has gone down - it's technically an MRE, but they've cut out all the good stuff, like the cheese spread and the fig bars. I guess like everyone else, they've decided to cut quality instead of raising the price.

Not sure which contractor makes these, but they have the good stuff in them (like the cheese spread and the fig bars), and they charge $90 a box for them too. Still less than the $125 in your store.

If you want to go even cheaper, replicate a C-ration. Buy a case of canned beef stew, several boxes of cheese crackers and some packs of cookies, some packs of trail mix, and store it in a corner somewhere. Or find another canned ham special going on somewhere.

--

You know what would really be useful? Some of these MRE contractors give out volume discounts if you buy in bulk - but I'd rather not buy a pallet of these at a time - but it would be nice to get them even cheaper. If a bunch of people here pooled resources, you could get the discount and perhaps get a few more boxes for the same amount of money.

Content

Features

DISCLAIMER: The charts and analysis provided here are not recommended for trading purposes. Trade at your own risk. The Turd provides knowledge not direction. Turd holds no liability for your trades and decisions but he's happy to take credit when credit is due, particularly through the "donate" button. Read more...