Power Forwards

1) Anthony Davis (PF/C) – The decision of who to pick first comes down to one thing. Risk appetite. Anthony Davis’ short career has been both spectacular and record breaking. We haven’t seen these type of numbers from a big since Kevin Garnett’s 2003-2004 MVP season. Unfortunately, there is one number associated with Davis that he is yet to propel into elite territory. That number is games played. Since entering the league in 2012-2013, the young superstar has played, on average, about 66 games per season. Missing 16 games every season is a big deal. None of Davis’ injuries have been of the chronic variety so this is not a trend that is guaranteed to continue. However, it is something that should be taken in account and is why I rank him behind Steph Curry in my Roto rankings. While there is risk, AD’s upside in H2H is simply too high to ignore. He’s a lock to finish first overall on a per game basis, and despite missing 14 games last season, Davis still finished above James Harden (81 games played) and Chris Paul (82 games played) on a cumulative basis. There’s reason to believe we haven’t seen his ceiling yet. New coach Alvin Gentry is fresh off working with two of the best offenses of all-time and has made it well-known that he plans to expand Davis’ offensive role. For those picking 2-12 in standard drafts, that is terrifying. AD has been working on his three-point shot this offseason but that’s not necessarily a good thing for his fantasy value. As we saw with Serge Ibaka last season, an increase in threes is not worth the FG% hit. Regardless of where that wet J is coming from, Davis is set up for a season for the ages.

2) Kevin Durant (SF/PF) – Durant is the only player that could challenge Davis for the per game crown. That is why, despite the risk, I can’t drop him any lower than five. We are only a year removed from Durant posting one of the best fantasy seasons of all-time. Despite being hobbled for most of the games that he did play last season, Durant was still a top-five per game player. His floor, when healthy, is higher than any player’s ceiling not named Davis, Curry, Harden, or Paul. There is a significant drop off in production after Durant. While some of players I have ranked below Durant as safer picks, you are at a huge disadvantage to those picking in the top 4 if you select one of them. A healthy KD makes that disadvantage disappear.

3) LeBron James (SF/PF) – You can’t go wrong picking any of the above five players but it’s at six where things get tricky. The days of LeBron being a top-tier fantasy asset are gone. While he’s still a good bet for first-round value, that is no guarantee given his decreased role and Cleveland’s openness to resting the King. In 2014-2015, for the first time in his career (excluding the shortened 2011-2012 season), LeBron failed to play in 70 games. This season also marked the first time since 2006-2007 in which James didn’t produce first-round numbers. LBJ is still a terrifying player to play against in H2H, but his floor is lower than it has ever been.

4) DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C) – Cousins broke into the top 10 last season despite continuing to have efficiency issues (46.7 FG, 4.3 TOPG). Those numbers don’t bother me as you know what you are getting into when you grab Cousins in first. What should make prospective owners nervous is that Boogie has only played in an average of 65 games over the past two seasons. As always, it will be a bumpy road with Cousins, but the end result should justify the investment.

5) Serge Ibaka (PF/C) – Perhaps no early-round player needs to be monitored more closely than Ibaka this preseason. Simply put, if Billy Donovan has him shooting threes, stay away. If not, then Ibaka shouldn’t fall outside of the top 15. Serge’s transition into a stretch four was devastating for his fantasy value. Before the All-Star Break, Ibaka was only posting third-round value thanks to his 45.9% shooting from the floor. After the all-star break, he stopped his Ryan Anderson impersonation and posted top-7 value before having his season ended by a bulky knee. A big man who provides out-of-position threes is a nice luxury to have but not when it comes at the expense of elite FG%.

6) Al Horford (PF/C) – Grabbing Horford around the turn won’t win you any leagues, but it also won’t lose you any. The Hawks’ undersized center has posted top-20 value on a per game basis five of the past six seasons. Horford is an excellent pick in Roto due to his clean line and should see a bump in the 30.5 MPG that he averaged in 2014-2015 as it is extremely unlikely that Atlanta runs away with East once again.

7) Paul Millsap (PF/C) – In what was a bit of a suprise, Millsap returned to the Hawks after flirting with the Magic. The versitile big man has returned top-20 value in both of his seasons in a Hawks uniform. As always, his out-of-position threes (1.1 3PG) and steals (1.8 steals) make him a no-brainer pick in the second.

8) Draymond Green (SF/PF) – Klay Thompson is generally seen as Steph Curry’s sidekick but make no mistake, next to the MVP, no one is more important to the Warriors’ success than Green. The heart and soul of the Warriors posts one of the most varied lines in the league. Fantasy players get excited about players that average one three, one steal, and one block a night. Draymond laughs at those averages as he put up 1.4 3PG, 1.6 SPG, and 1.3 BPG in 2014-2015. There’s still upside here as Green has improved his shooting every year since coming into the league and should see a bump in his relatively low 31.5 MPG.

9) LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C) – LMA’s days of being a first-round asset are gone now that he is wearing silver and black. Only Kawhi played more than 30 MPG last season for the Spurs and no player reached that mark in 2013-2014. Aldridge’s first-round numbers came in 35.4 MPG last season so a regression is guaranteed. He’ll still be a very good source of points (23.4 PPG), rebounds (10.2 RPG) out-of-position FT% impact (84.5%) but due to the minutes reduction, this ranking could prove to be too aggressive.

10) Blake Griffin (PF/C) – Blake has improved his free-throw shooting (72.8%) to a point where he’s a reasonable pick for those choosing not to punt freebies. Although viable outside of the build, I still prefer to punt FT% with him as his out-of-position assists (5.3 APG) are exactly what is needed for those looking to have success while ignoring free throws. Don’t worry about Josh Smith’s presence. He won’t see more than 20-25 MPG behind Blake and DeAndre. Blake’s FG% (50.2%) has been on a downward trend for the last three years but expect improvement there as many of the Clippers’ new additions are excellent playmakers.

11) Nerlens Noel (PF/C) – Andrew Wiggins won Rookie of the Year, but it was Noel who was the clear standout rookie both on the court and in the fantasy realm. Despite only being 20, Noel posted Anthony Davis-like defensive numbers in his rookie campaign with averages over the last three months of the season that included 9.1 RPG, 2.0 SPG, and 2.2 BPG. We’re looking at a future Defensive Player of the Year. With the addition of Jahlil Okafor, the Sixers should be improved on offense this season. This should help Noel improve on his middling efficiency from the field (46.2 FG%). There’s first-round potential here. Managers looking to punt points or FT% should pay extra attention to Noel.

12) Nikola Vucevic (PF/C) – Vucevic still doesn’t block shots (0.7 BPG), but that hasn’t stopped the young Magic big man from becoming an early-round asset. With averages of 19.3 PPG and 10.9 RPG, Vucevic is a prime target for those punting blocks as productive big men who don’t derive a large chunk of their value from blocks are rare. The young center does come with some injury risk as Vucevic is regularly dinged up and has missed an average of 14 games over the past four seasons.

13) Andre Drummond (PF/C) – The breakout that everyone was expecting didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean you should give up on Drummond just yet. Greg Monroe is now a Buck and that means more room for Drummond to operate. Don’t expect a return to 2013-2014 FG% levels (62.3%) as the other AD isn’t talented enough to maintain that efficiency with his increased usage but he should improve on last year’s disappointing 51.4%. Even in a down year Drummond posted top-10 numbers without FT% and is an excellent target for those who want to punt FT% and went with Curry or Harden early.

14) Pau Gasol (PF/C) – Pau proved that he plenty left in the tank last season, finishing 16th-overall and suiting up for 78 games. I don’t think either number is repeatable given his advanced age and likely minutes decrease (34.4 MPG) but that incredible playoff schedule guarantees that if healthy, there won’t be many players that you would rather have on your squad come playoff time. There’s been talk of the Bulls switching up their starting frontcourt in order to find more minutes for Nikola Mirotic, but any change would likely come at the expense of the declining Joakim Noah and not Gasol.

15) Carmelo Anthony (SF/PF) – Carmelo will outplay this rank on a per game basis. Possibly by a quite a bit. But none of that matters if he’s in street clothes in late March. The Knicks have improved but with Melo’s knee issues and the possibility of the Knicks being long shots for the playoffs come March, there’s too much risk here to take him within the first two rounds. Expect Anthony to improve on his 24.2 PPG as he becomes more comfortable playing in the triangle.

16) Kevin Love (PF/C) – Love was regulated to the Chris Bosh role in his first year in Cleveland, and like Bosh, saw his fantasy value dip. Even with the decreased role, he was still very useful and posted top-35 value in 9-cat leagues. Love should be a better per-minute player as he becomes more accustomed to his role, but with the Cavaliers’ improved depth, it’s unlikely that we see anything more than a small jump from Love. The stretch four is an interesting option for those punting blocks. He does you give you the rebounds that you need (9.7 RPG) and loses very little value without blocks (0.5 BPG), but FG% is a category you need to focus on in that build and Love is a negative there (43.4 FG%).

17) Rudy Gay (SF/PF) – Gay has been quietly posting very nice numbers since leaving Dwane Casey’s ISO-focused offense. The former Raptor posted top-25 numbers in his first full season in Sacramento. Gay posted a surprisingly clean line including a very respectable 45.5% from the field. The addition of Rajon Rondo does muddy the water though. Rondo is a clear downgrade from Darren Collison on offense and I expect the switch to have a negative effect on Gay. With Willie Cauley-Stein also likely to join the starting lineup, spacing will be at a premium for the Kings. It’s not a lock that Rondo sticks in the starting lineup all season, but expect a small decrease in Rudy’s efficiency and scoring numbers as long as he does.

18) Al Jefferson (PF/C) – Big Al is coming off a terrible year, one that saw him drop from a top-15 player to a top-50 player. While his per minute numbers did dip, most of that drop is due to playing five less minutes per game. With the addition of Spencer Hawes, Jefferson’s minutes will likely remain around 30 MPG. What makes me confident that Jefferson will be better than just a top-50 player this season is his FT%. Jefferson is a career 71% shooter from the line but only managed to hit 65.5% of his shots from the charity stripe last season. If that normalizes, you have a top-40 player.

19) Tim Duncan (PF/C) – Father Time may be undefeated but Tim Duncan is giving him a heck of a run. Duncan is 39 but still managed to post second-round numbers in 2014-2015. The addition of LaMarcus Aldridge will hurt Duncan’s rebounding (9.2 RPG), but I don’t see any of his other very solid numbers (13.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 BPG) taking much of a hit. I expect Duncan to be better than this ranking on a per game basis, but the Spurs’ poor playoff schedule and the fact that Aldridge’s presence making it easier to rest him, makes The Big Fundamental only a borderline top-40 asset in 2015-2016.

20) Greg Monroe (PF/C) – After a very promising start to his career, Monroe went into a two-year slump, failing to post top-85 numbers in both 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. Monroe looked like he was on his way to another disappointing season until he exploded over the last three months of the campaign. Over that period, Monroe posted borderline top-25 numbers and averaged 16.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG, and 1.5 SPG. The steals are not sustainable but Monroe is still a lock for over one swipe a night. Those scoring numbers and rebounding are a reasonable expectation for Monroe in his first year in Milwaukee. More than anything, what will determine Monroe’s value is his FT%. Monroe is a 69.3% career free-throw shooter but in 2014-2015 the former Piston shot 75.0% from the line. Whether or not that improvement is permanent will determine if Monroe is a top-30 player or just a top-60 asset.

21) Dirk Nowitzki (PF/C) – Dirk is still a very good player but it’s hard to put up big numbers when you’re not playing heavy minutes. Dirk was a top-25 per-minute player but saw his per game ranking drop outside of the top 40. The big German will continue to be a solid source of points (17.3 PPG), out-of-position threes (1.4 3PG), and FT% impact (88.2 FT%) but unless he sees an uptick in minutes, that’s all he’ll be. Dirk only played 29.6 MPG last season and that number is unlikely to see an uptick in 2015-2016.

22) Derrick Favors (PF/C) – Rudy Gobert is the new darling of the Jazz frontcourt, and deservedly so, but don’t forget about Favors. The former third-overall pick showed significant improvement on offense last season and saw his PPG jump from 13.3 in 2013-2014 to 16.0 in 2014-2015. Unlike many young players, Favors has increased his scoring while maintaining solid efficiency (52.5 FG%). When you pair those scoring numbers with very strong rebounding totals (8.2 RPG) and excellent defensive stats (0.8 SPG and 1.7 BPG), you have yourself a top-50 pick with top-30 upside.

23) Chandler Parsons (SF/PF) – Parsons had a poor 2014-2015 season, only managing to post top-60 numbers after back-to-back top-35 finishes. With Rondo in Sacramento and Deron Williams now running the point in Dallas, there’s a good chance that the Mavericks’ lead recruiter’s value looks more like it did in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 than it did last season. Parsons struggles from the line (72.0 FT%, but is fairly efficient from the floor (46.2 FG%) for a guy who hits 2.0 3PG.

24) Thaddeus Young (SF/PF) – Ignore Thad’s early season struggles. That was simply a case of a player struggling to adapt to a new system. After the slow start, Thad was back to his old self, posting top-55 value over the last three months of the year. With the Nets extremely thin up front, Young is looking at an expanded role in 2015-2016. The former Sixer was a borderline top-30 asset in both 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. He may not reach those lofty heights with the Nets, but it’s hard to find that kind of upside in the middle rounds. As always, Thad will be an outstanding source of out-of-position steals (1.6 SPG).

25) Tobias Harris (SF/PF) – While Harris hasn’t become the fantasy superstar that many predicted he would be become after his first year in a Magic uniform, he’s continued to improve and just missed cracking the top 50 in 2014-2015. Now a full-time small forward, Harris produces a well-rounded line that includes 17.1 PPG, 1.3 3PG, 6.3 RPG, and 0.5 BPG. If you need a points boost in the middle rounds, Harris is your man.

26) Nikola Miortic (SF/PF) – Miortic will be near the top of everyone’s sleeper list and for good reason. The talented sophomore was extremely productive when given minutes in his rookie season. Over the last two months of the season, Miortic posted top-60 value despite only playing 26.0 MPG. Over that stretch he averaged 16.0 PPG, 1.7 3PG, 6.3 RPG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.9 BPG on 41.4% shooting from the field and 82.2% shooting at the stripe. Those numbers and poor FG% makes Mirotic a great target for those punting FG%. Mirotic’s minutes should be close to 30 a night this season and that gives the young Bull early-round upside. He’ll be expensive, but it’s unlikely he doesn’t return value if taken outside of the top 50.

27) Terrence Jones (SF/PF) – Jones took a small step back in 2014-2015 as his per 36 numbers dropped almost across the board but you should still target the young Rocket aggressively. Despite only playing 27.0 MPG last season, Jones was able to post top-70 per game numbers for the second season in row. With Josh Smith in a Clippers uniform, and Dwight Howard becoming increasing injury prone, I think we see Jones come close to cracking the 30 MPG mark this year. That could mean very big things for a player who averages 2.4 BP36. The versatile big man has top-30 potential. Reach for him.

28) Chris Bosh (PF/C) – Bosh was one of the bigger busts of 2014-2015 even before his season was cut short by blood clots. After looking like the Toronto version of himself over the first two months of the season, Miami’s 1A option proceeded to fall off a cliff. Bosh struggled to handle his increased role and only shot 43.8% from the field in the New Year. His increased focus on offense also led to his defense slipping. After averaging over a block a game in each of the two prior seasons, Bosh only managed 0.5 BPG in 2014-2015. Now 31, it’s safe to wonder if Bosh is declining. The Boshtrich ended up posting top-40 per game numbers last season but that was in 35.4 MPG. With Miami’s depth much improved and Bosh coming off such a serious illness, I expect his minutes to be closer to 30 a night. It would be a small surprise if the All-Star big man posted top-50 value this season.

29) Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF) – The “Giannis is going to play point guard” nonsense that was being floated last preseason turned out to be exactly that, but The Greek Freak did manage to greatly improve his fantasy value in his sophomore year. Much of this improvement can be credited to his decision to stop shooting threes. Giannis saw his 3PG drop from 0.5 3PG in 2013-2014 to 0.1 3PG in 2014-2015. This lead to a huge increase in his field goal efficiency (49.1 FG%) which more than offset the drop in threes. Don’t overpay for the exciting young stud as his line still contains a number of holes. Aside from the lack threes, Giannis is also a surprisingly poor thief (0.9 SPG) and struggles at the line (74.1 FT%).

30) Gorgui Dieng (PF/C) – Minnesota’s frontcourt is crowded…for now. Dieng will lose minutes to Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Garnett but both are on the shortlist of players most likely to miss significant amounts of time this season. We won’t see a repeat of last season’s top-50 finish due to presence of Karl-Anthony Towns, but Dieng still has solid upside thanks to his defensive stats (1.0 SPG, 1.7 BPG) and efficiency both from the field (50.6 FG%) and at the line (78.3 FT%). He’s currently ranked far too low on both Yahoo and ESPN and savvy owners need to take advantage of that. Dieng is someone I will be targeting in all of my leagues.

31) Dwight Howard (PF/C) – While still a dominant force, Dwight is coming off his worst statistical season since his rookie year. His averages of 10.5 RPG, 0.7 SPG, and 1.3 BPG were all either career lows or the second lowest average of his career. Now of course those are still excellent numbers, but when you factor in Howard’s inability to stay healthy, he’s no longer anywhere near the punt FT% must-have that he once was. In 2014-2015, Dwight was only the 34th-most valuable player on a per game basis without FT%.

32) Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF) – Let’s give Ersanity one more chance. Yes, there’s a chance that he’s glued to the end of Stan Van Gundy’s bench when the fantasy playoffs roll around but the former Buck is stepping into a role that helped Ryan Anderson post first-round value in in 2011-2012. Last year’s final ranking of 122nd-overall isn’t pretty, but that ranking hides the fact that Ilyasova posted top-60 numbers over the last two months of the season despite uncharacteristically struggling from the line (67.2 FT%). Over those two months Ersan averaged 14.5 PPG, 1.9 3PG, and 6.2 RPG. With the opportunity he’s being given, it’s not impossible that those numbers end up being his season averages in 2015-2016.

33) DeMarre Carroll (SF/PF) – Carroll is coming off back-to-back top-60 finishes but is unlikely to complete the hat trick after signing with the Raptors in the offseason. Carroll is leaving the team that finished first in AST% and moving to the team that finished third last in that same category. For a player that is very dependent on his teammates generating good looks, that is very bad news. He’ll still be a solid source of threes (1.7 3PG) and steals (1.3 SPG) but should see his overall value drop a round or two due to a likely decrease in efficiency (48.7%).

35) Ryan Anderson (PF/C) – The arrival of Alvin Gentry should mean good things for every member of the Pelicans. The offense should be improved and play at a faster pace. A faster pace could mean more minutes for Anderson whose 2.0+ 3PG will always keep him interesting. Last year’s poor shooting (39.9 FG%) should prove to be a fluke and owners can expect that number to be closer to his career average of 42.2% in 2015-2016.

36) Markieff Morris (PF/C) – Regardless of whether Markieff remains in Phoenix or is in a new uniform when the season starts, the versatile big man is worth a pick anytime after the sixth-round. If his situation becomes more clear by opening night, I will be bumping him up in my rankings. Morris gives you a little bit of everything and while he won’t quite join the one three, one steal, one block club, he is no slouch in those categories (0.7 3PG, 1.2 SPG, 0.5 BPG). The disgruntled big man finished within the top-75 last season due to those averages and his 15.3 PPG.

37) Kenneth Faried (PF/C) – Faried is badly overrated both on the court and in fantasy drafts. He’s undersized, isn’t much of a defender, and can’t create for himself. Fantasy-wise, Faried is ranked just outside of the top 50 on Yahoo and just outside of the top 40 on ESPN. Those are some ridiculous rankings for a player who has never cracked the top 80. His FT% weakness is his most obvious flaw (69.1 FT%), but Faried’s defensive stats are also below-average (0.8 SPG and 0.8 BPG) and he barely registers an assist per game (1.2 APG). Faried is an easy pass at his current price.

38) Zach Randolph (PF/C) – After three years of teetering on the edge of fantasy irrelevance, Z-Bo returned to mid-round value in 2014-2015. Randolph returned sixth-round value in 9-cat thanks to his highest FG% shooting since 2010-2011 (48.7 FG%) and his highest steals rate since 2009-2010 (1.0 SPG). At 34, I’m skeptical that we’ll see a repeat performance. Randolph is still a very good source of points (16.1 PPG) and rebounds (10.5 RPG) but doesn’t contribute in enough categories to have a high floor or a high ceiling.

39) Ed Davis (PF/C) – Jordan Clarkson received quite a bit of hype for posting commendable numbers on last seasons’ train wreck that was the Lakers. Lost in that hype was that Ed Davis was doing something very similar. The former eighth-overall pick has been a journeyman but has flashed serious potential wherever he has been. Over the last three months of the season, Ed posted top-90 value despite only playing 22.5 MPG. That ranking is even more impressive when you consider that Davis is one of the worst free-throw shooters in the league (45.7 FT%). Without FT%, Davis’ rank over that time frame jumps to 42nd-overall. Ed is a great late-round option for those punting FT% and has outstanding potential thanks to his new role that should see him play close to 28 MPG and his impressive per minute numbers (11.7 RP36, 1.9 BP36, and 60.1 FG%).

40) David Lee (PF/C) – Boston’s frontcourt is loaded with mediocre players but as of now, Lee looks like most likely of the group to return decent fantasy value. Lee is only a year removed from posting top-60 value and while he’s unlikely to see enough minutes to repeat that kind of finish, his game is fantasy friendly enough that he will likely be very useful this year. Lee is a solid, late-round target for those punting blocks (0.4 BP36 for his career) and looking for a late percentage boost (52.3 FG% and 78.0 FT% in 2013-2014).

41) Joakim Noah (PF/C) – Noah looked dangerously close to being done in 2014-2015. Despite only being a year removed from posting top-20 value, he’s no more than a late-round flier for those in need of big man stats (9.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG). The Bulls want to find more minutes for Nikola Miortic and I expect those minutes will come at the expense of Noah. The emotional leader of the Bulls should still be a very good source of out-of-position assists (4.6 APG), but doesn’t have more than top-85 upside this season.

42) Meyers Leonard (PF/C) – It feels like half of the league’s potential breakout players will be wearing a Trail Blazers’ uniform this season. The Blazers’ big man is actually fresh off of a 50/40/90 season. Of course, that impressive efficiency came on low volume, but it also allowed Leonard to post top-65 per 36 numbers. Leonard’s biggest issue is that his line includes close to zero defensive stats. Meyers is 7’1 but only averaged 0.6 BP36. He’s an excellent late-round pick for those punting blocks and hunting for upside.

43) Jared Sullinger (PF/C) – It’s likely to be bumpy ride for Sullinger owners. Early indications are that Coach Stevens is going to start veterans David Lee and Amir Johnson at the two frontcourt spots. This does hurt Sullinger but his upside and per minute production is high enough that he still deserves a look late in drafts. The (very) big man posted top-50 per 36 numbers last season and averaged close to a three (0.9 3PG), steal, (0.8 SPG), and block (0.7 BPG) per game. He is a good fit for both the punt blocks build and the punt FG% build (44.0 FG%).

44) Patrick Patterson (PF/C) – With Amir Johnson in Boston, Patterson has a huge opportunity in front of him. The only other four on the roster is Luis Scola so the starting power forward spot is Patterson’s for the taking. He won’t win you any categories by himself but he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (78.8 FT%) either and is a very good source of out-of-position threes (1.3 3PG). Patterson has a very good chance to improve on both his 26.6 MPG and top-90 2014-2015 finish.

45) Jae Crowder (SF/PF) – Despite starting most of his games on the bench, Crowder was very useful over the last two months of the season, posting top-115 numbers that included 11.5 PPG, 1.0 3PG, 5.8 RPG, and 1.0 SPG. Like many young players he is held back by his lack of efficiency (41.9 FG%), but expect Crowder to improve on his strong finish. He’s a very strong late-round target for those punting FG%.

46) Kyle O’Quinn (PF/C) – O’Quinn showed flashes of potential in Orlando but was never given the opportunity to consistently play starters’ minutes. That could change in New York as O’Quinn is a very good fit for the triangle due to his underrated passing ability and increased range. Regardless of whether or not O’Quinn starts at PF, I expect his minutes to be in the mid-20s. That has been enough minutes for O’Quinn to be valuable in the past. It’s early, but O’Quinn is one of my favorite late-round targets.

47) Luol Deng (SF/PF) – Deng will outplay this ranking but I’d rather roll the dice on higher upside options at this point in the draft. Deng posted top-90 value last season but will hard-pressed to repeat that finish with rookie Justise Winslow in town. Expect Winslow will eat into his 33.6 MPG. Deng doesn’t hurt you anywhere, but he doesn’t help much either.

48) Mason Plumlee (PF/C) – Plumlee is competing with Leonard for the Blazers’ starting center spot and should be worth a look late if he can carve out 25 MPG. The former Net is a FT% punt-only player (49.5 FT%) as the only full-time players who had a larger negative impact on the category were Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, and DeAndre Jordan. If you’re punting FT% and go heavy on guards early, grab Plumlee late and enjoy his 10.6 RP36, 1.3 SP36, 1.3 BP36, and 57.3 FG%.

49) James Johnson (SF/PF) – Johnson was in and out of Dwane Casey’s doghouse in 2014-2015 and there’s a good chance that he fails to gain the trust of Casey this season too. However, there is serious upside here, especially with the hole the Raptors have at power forward. Despite not even cracking the 20 MPG mark last season, JJ posted top-130 numbers due his awesome per minute production (1.4 SP36, 1.8 BP36) and outstanding out-of-position FG% contributions (58.9 FG%). If he was to ever get extended run, the former redhead would be a fantasy difference maker.

50) Donatas Motiejunas (SF/PF) – Motiejunas should see plenty of time behind Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard but his game isn’t fantasy friendly. Donut does provide you with a respectable amount of points (12.0 PPG), out-of-position threes (0.7 3PG), and rebounds (5.9 RPG), but his poor foul shooting (60.2 FT%) and lack of defensive stats (0.8 SPG, 0.5 BPG), limit his upside even when give extended minutes. Howard is a lock to miss games but Motiejunas doesn’t have the game to fully take advantage of the opportunity.

51) Amir Johnson (PF/C) – The Celtics have a bevy of offensively talented big men but Amir is the only one of the group who provides NBA-level defense. The Celtics’ likely starting center should see close to the 26.4 MPG that he saw in his final year in Toronto. Johnson has a fairly fantasy-friendly game (three top-100 finishes in the last five years) but is held back by his propensity to lead the league in ankle sprains. Expect over six rebounds and a block a night from Johnson to go along with his always excellent FG% (57.4 FG%).

52) Jordan Hill (PF/C) – Hill was a flop with the Lakers in his first real opportunity to see extended minutes but finds himself in another fairly promising position. Hill is replacing David West in Indiana and should see plenty of playing time both as the backup power forward (Paul George is likely to start at the four) and at center. Indiana is planning on playing faster this season, so he’s unlikely to see the 28.7 MPG that West saw, but if Hill can earn close to 25 minutes a night, he should be a valuable source of rebounds (7.9 RPG) and blocks (0.8 BPG).

53) Aaron Gordon (PF) – Last year’s fourth-overall pick had a rough rookie year missing nearly half the season and failing to have much of an impact when he was on the court. Before summer league I doubt anyone expected Gordon to be relevant to standard league players. Summer league changed all that. You don’t want to overreact to summer league performances, as they obviously come against inferior competition, but the way that Gordon dominated was very eye-opening. The Magic’s likely starting power forward averaged 21.7 PPG, 2.0 3PG, 11.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG and 1.7 BPG while shooting 50% from the floor. Those averages came in only three games but the variety of his contributions, especially the threes which were completely nonexistent in 2014-2015, is exciting. Due to his poor rookie year and lack of playing time, it’s hard to make any strong predictions regarding Gordon but if you looking to swing for the fences late, Gordon is your man.

54) Jabari Parker (SF/PF) – Jabari is esentially a rookie this year and that allows me to drop my one of my favorite fantasy facts. Over the last six years, only two rookie wings have managed to post top-100 value (Kawhi Leonard and Landry Fields). Andrew Wiggins didn’t come close and I expect Parker to fall short as well. Like all rookies, expect Parker to struggle with efficiency both from the floor (47.3% in his last year at Duke) and at the line (74.8% in college). Parker also projects as a below-average three-point shooter this season and won’t contribute much outside of points and rebounds.

55) John Henson (PF/C) – The Bucks have a lot of big names in their starting lineup but it’s hard to see a team starting Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe up front and not struggling on defense. Enter John Henson. Unlike Zaza Pachulia, Monroe can play the four so Henson should see minutes both beside and behind the newest Buck. Henson is capable of explosive performances thanks to his 4.0 BP36 and this could be the year we see some consistency from the Tar Heel.