Disc Dem

Sunday, 22 January 2017

Kakcophony

noun - a harsh, discordant mixture of sounds made by
politicians at election time

The oftentimes
ridiculous bleating of politicians prompted my wife to ask “Does anything good
ever come out of politics?” Offhand, I couldn’t think of anything, so it was
one of those very rare occasions, according to her, where I was left
speechless.

Unsurprisingly,
political noise levels are again rising rapidly, and will no doubt reach a
crescendo in December this year when we will know who is to be South Africa’s
next president. This alone is enough incentive for me to rediscover my voice.

While there
are a good number of people hoping, and some actually believing, that we will soon
see an end to ANC misrule, a look at previous election results indicates that
they will almost certainly retain a majority of seats in Parliament in 2019.

The hope and
belief that change is imminent stems from a perception that opposition parties,
the DA and EFF in particular, are rapidly gaining support, while the ANC is
rapidly losing support.

Using voter
turnout numbers for 2014 National and 2016 Local Government elections as
the benchmark for today’s optimism, we are told that:

DA support increased from 21.9% in the 2014
National elections, to 26.8% just two years later in the Local Government
elections.

The EFF debuted in 2014 with an initial 6.3%
following, rising to 8.1% in 2016.

ANC support on the other hand dropped from 61.3%
in the 2014 to 53.3% in 2016, so they are now on the brink of losing their
majority in 2019.

The facts of
the matter are that when trumpeting electoral “gains” and “losses”, politicians
and mainstream media are misdirecting us.

With the exception of a recent and very eloquent report
written by Gareth van Onselen that touches on this subject, I claim it is misdirection
because neither politicians, nor the majority of mainstream media, make
reference to the electoral anomaly of voter turnout differences between the National/Provincial
elections, and Local Government elections.

To understand
this particular dynamic of our flawed electoral system, take a look at voting
statistics since the advent of our democracy.

Apart from
1994, where the excitement of the majority being able to vote for the first
time ensured a 99% turnout of registered voters, all other alternating
elections have settled into much the same pattern.

NATIONAL/PROVINCIAL LOCAL GOV.

Year

Registered

Turnout

%

Year

Registered

Turnout

%

1994

19
726 610

19
533 498

99.0%

1995/6

17
782 694

8
675 567

48.8%

1999

18
172 751

16
228 462

89.3%

2000

18
511 975

8
752 223

47.3%

2004

20
674 926

15
863 558

76.7%

2006

21
054 957

9
857 074

46.8%

2009

23
181 997

17
919 966

77.3%

2011

23
139 142

13
353 987

57.7%

2014

25
388 082

18
654 772

73.5%

2016

26 333 353

14 959 033

56.8%

The first high-level pattern is very obvious – fewer people bother to
vote in Local Government elections than in National/Provincial elections. This reflects
in the sorry state of Local Government where corruption, financial mismanagement,
and political ineptitude are spawned by a systemic
lack of direct political accountability.

The second noticeable pattern is that voter turnout rises, albeit
slightly, when a change of National President is involved. Thabo Mbeki’s first National
election had a still-healthy 89.3% turnout that declined to 76.7% for his
second term. Similarly, but less dramatically, an increase to 77.3% turnout for
Jacob Zuma the first time around, dropped to 73.5% for his second term.

If they choose wisely, a new ANC presidential candidate for 2019 hints
at an uptick in turnout, which is more advantageous to the ANC than to the
opposition.

The third, perhaps less obvious but more alarming pattern, is that the
number of registered voters failing to vote in National elections (26.5% in
2014) has become the fastest growing “political” sector in South Africa.

The registered voter versus turnout anomaly cannot be ignored when
evaluating so-called political “gains” because, as is demonstrated below,
genuine reflections of political party performance can only be in comparison to
the number of registered voters[1],
not voter turnout.

If party support is recalculated using the number
of registered voters as the
benchmark.

DA support stood at 16.1% of registered voters
in 2014, declining to 15.2% in 2016;

EFF support peaked at 4.6% in both elections;
and

Support for the ANC dropped from 45% (already a
minority government?) in 2014 to 30.3% in 2016.

Relative to
the number of registered voters, I believe the EFF will always be, at best, a
5% fringe party. I also believe that in
its present form the DA is approaching its support ceiling. Even if I am
only half-right, this means that the current and very real threat to the ANC
does not come from the opposition, but rather from those who choose not to vote.
These people also pose the most significant threat to the future direction of
democracy in South Africa.

If the politically
moderate population loses faith with our present version of democracy and stops
voting, it opens the door for all sorts of fringe elements to take the gap with
populist, divisive, and perhaps even violent rhetoric.

As their grip
on power slips further, we can also confidently anticipate an escalation in the
already highly populist rhetoric coming out of Lethuli House which, if it
hasn’t occurred to you yet, will take their “ideology” ever closer to that of
the EFF.

With
this in mind, we need to rid ourselves of the notion that coalition governance
will automatically include the DA as the controlling partner. The closer ANC
and EFF ideologies become, the more likely it is that the ANC will be the
coalition partner of choice for the EFF.

I
believe that by standing in opposition to the ANC at local government level,
the EFF has merely fired a warning shot across the bow of the ANC, to remind
them of who might be holding the high cards in the far more important 2019
National/Provincial elections.

In
addition, can anyone really see Julius Malema turning down the opportunity to wield
significant influence over the ANC as “Kingmaker”, while at the same time being
given ANC-style access to state resources? Just asking.....

A revolution that will bring enforceable
political accountability, not just pay lip-service to it.

A revolution that places limits on the executive
powers of the single individual occupying the Office of the State President.

A positive revolution where it will no longer be
enough for politicians to gain points through attack or being negative.

A positive revolution that will bring people
back to the polling stations because their vote really does count.

We have a
wonderful, world-renowned Constitution, but that doesn’t mean that we should
not be looking at ways to further improve it.
It is in this context that I
have previously called for a civil society-led review of the political
dispensation contained in the Constitution, nothing more.

The current dispensation
assumes ethical leadership and political self-policing, so contains no
provision to enforce accountability when politicians, particularly senior
politicians, fail to live up to their oath of office.

Nkandlagate,
Nenegate, and the State of Capture report by the Public Protector alone, provide
more than enough motivation for us to improve our Constitution to correct this
oversight.

Whether or not
we expect much to change politically after the 2019 National elections, it is still
imperative that we rethink the rules under which politicians are allowed to
operate. We must have enforceable accountability, with swift and meaningful
retribution for any breach of trust.

There are so
many civil organisations out there that can, and should be driving this
initiative. Will any of them have the courage to step up to the plate? It will be a hard road to walk, but as Madiba
said “It is always impossible until it is done”

[1]There are also large numbers of voting age people who
have not even bothered to register, which would make the picture even bleaker.

[2]When the
positive revolution takes hold it will no longer be enough for politicians to
gain points through attack or being negative. Politicians will be expected to
be constructive. (The Positive Revolution – Edward De Bono)

1 comment:

Very insightful. As a people, the first thing we need to overcome is this habit of emotional voting. Race politics is still a big issue in SA. Even in The US, where they just elected a deranged, orange-faced bigot, you could still see a link between Trump's policy and the will of the people. Behind his racist rhetoric, Trump also promises like keeping jobs in the country. Yes, some voted out of hate, but I reckon most voted in the hopes of jobs, healthcare and trade deals etc. In SA, we still vote for "Mandela's party" or the "White party" or the "Anti-Zuma party", regardless of what they promise. We vote on race, emotion and history. When we as move past this state of thinking and vote for parties based on policy and track record, maybe instead of singing and dancing at manifesto's, our politicians might actually propose policies and we might actually vote accordingly.

About Me

After retiring early, I became involved with the local ratepayers association. This is where I gained first-hand experience of the damage that can be done by proportional representation politicians at local government level. I have become increasingly frustrated with the widening disconnection between party-dominated politicians and the people they (mis)represent.