Economic growth, not political posturing, is the key to a Conservative revival

David Cameron's party is dancing a hokey cokey after Eastleigh. If they don't watch out, warns Ed Jacobs, political commentor for the Guardian Northerner, it may change into a different, and less happy, dance

Left foot? Right foot? Or will they all fall down? Photograph: Hulton Archive/Getty Images

At points over the last week, the Conservative party has seemed to resemble less a political party and more the hokey cokey. In the wake of what was a shocking campaign and result at the Eastleigh by-election, coming third behind UKIP, it has been a case of backbench and frontbench MPs putting their right wings in, David Cameron taking their right wings out, then it all being shaken about.

The analogy may seem frivolous but it goes to the heart of the tussle for the soul of the Conservative party.

On the one hand are what are now known as the Cameroons, those such as Michael Gove who remain adamant that the Prime Minister's quest, begun in 2005, to drag the party into the cherished centre ground of British politics where elections are won and lost, will continue whatever other siren voices might say.

And then we have the Conservative right, with many MPs from the 2010 intake looking for a far more classic Tory agenda; hence

The confusion within Tory circles about how to respond is palpable, with what now appears to have been the unilateral announcements made by Hammond and May seen by many as manoeuvering to swoop on the leadership if and when the position becomes vacant. As the party begins to tread the dangerous path of looking in on itself, there is a danger that a result in a southern by-election detracts from the real problem the Conservatives have, namely not making any sort of breakthrough in northern England.

For the Conservatives to govern alone at the next election will require them to take a whole host of seats from Labour, seats such as Wirral South where Labour clings to a majority of just 531; Bolton West with an even measlier just 92 and yes, even the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Ball's seat of Morley and Outwood, which he holds with a majority over the Conservatives of just over 1,000.

How do the Conservatives get the north back? The economy, stupid. One look at the Economist/Ipsos Mori's latest issues tracker shows clearly that with the 11% of northern voters arguing welfare reform to be the major issue facing the country and even the 26% opting for immigration, are eclipsed by the 49% of northerners declaring the economy to be by far the major issue facing the country. They reflect the sentiments of the rest of the UK.

To date the Conservatives have successfully garnered public support around the idea that Labour remain the ones to blame, that it is they that went on an uncontrolled spending splurge, a point I picked up on in the Northerner last week. But just as Labour desperately needs to regain the confidence of the public in the idea that they can be handed responsibility for looking after our money, the Government must prove that its mantra of tackling the deficit at all costs is flexible enough to allow growth.

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, for example, showed that 42% of northern respondents supported the notion that the Government "should change its strategy to concentrate on growth, even if this means the deficit stays longer or gets bigger." This compared with the 30% who supported the Government's current approach, even if it means slower growth.

So while tacking to the right might please backbench Conservatives, the reality is that to the outside world it suggests that the party is in the midst of an identity crisis over issues which for all their importance don't go to the heart of the matter - the lack of growth in the economy. The danger is that the party repeats its past mistake of preferring cheap headline-grabbing ideas on issues which, though important, detract from the central mission of growth.

When the country goes to the polls in 2015, voters will not judge the Conservatives on whether they have successfully out UKIPed UKIP but on whether they have got the country on a path towards economic prosperity. As a result, George Osborne's budget in less than two weeks' time is critical to both his and his party's fortunes. If he fails, it might not be the hokey cokey he dances but ring-a-ring-a-roses. That ultimately led to everyone falling down.