Wednesday, June 08, 2016

Connecticut, Advantage Hillary

Just prior to the California primary, a “must win” for
socialist Bernie Sanders, the Hillary Clinton campaign pointed out that their
beleaguered leader had acquired enough delegates to overcome Mr. Sanders at the
upcoming Democratic Party Presidential nominating convention. A headline
following the announcement, typical of most, read: “Clinton secures delegates before last Democratic races."

The message of the Hillary campaign to prospective Sanders supporters
just prior to the crucial primaries in six states – CA, MT, NM, ND, NJ and SD –
and especially delegate rich California, could not be plainer: Stay
home, the campaign is over. Mrs. Clinton swept California and New
Jersey. Following her California win, Mrs. Clinton slathered Bernie supporters
with empathy. “I know it never feels good to put your heart into a cause or a
candidate you believe in and come up short,” she said from her triumphant
podium. “I know that feeling well.”

Mr. Sanders – like Mrs. Clinton, now running for history – vowed
to press his socialist programs over the brow of the Democratic primary victor
at the Democratic nominating convention. The socialist crown is one Mrs.
Clinton will be loathed to sport during the general election; everyone expects
her to pivot to the center, and too much socialism could easily prevent her
from crashing the glass ceiling as the first female President in U.S. history.

Hillary supporters in Connecticut were no doubt relieved at
Mrs. Clinton’s substantial wins in California and New Jersey. Among political
establishment supporters in Connecticut
are the members of the state’s U.S. Congressional Delegation, all Democrats.

Coincident with the uplifting news release, Quinnipiac released a new pollcertain to make the hearts of Connecticut’s U.S. Delegation members flutter
with anticipatory delight. The Q-poll showed Mrs. Clinton leading prospective
Republican Party nominee Donald Trump by a more than comfortable margin, 45 -
38 percent.

Any Republican Party contender for the presidency in CT must
overcome a sizable vote advantage by Democrats, about two to one. Registered
unaffiliateds in the state slightly outnumber Democrats.

In order to light a fire under the Trump campaign in
Connecticut, Mr. Trump must energize Republican office holders, an
“establishment” group the Trump campaign has been denigrating for months.

Mr. Trump has two serious problems: He’s running short of
money; it’s one thing to self-finance a primary, quite a different thing to
self-finance a general election. The coverage Trump received during the
primaries, which permitted him to spend less money financing his Republican
Party putsch, almost certainly will dissipate in a general election because, as
Mr. Trump often has pointed out, the much detested Main Stream Media, (MSM)
leans left and is unfair to Mr. Trump’s campaign.

The MSM may have been favorably disposed towards Trump
during the bruising Republican primaries, possibly in order to sweep the
political stage of genuine anti-establishment conservatives – Marco Rubio, Rand
Paul and Ted Cruz. By "favorably disposed,” the reader should not infer
that left of center media outlets were in Mr. Trump’s corner because they
regarded him as a superior candidate. In part for selfish rating reasons, the
MSM provided more air time to Trump than any of his Republican Party
contenders. Air time is costly for campaigns -- except when it's free,
spontaneously combusted by Mr. Trump’s explosive and entertaining personality.
However, in a general election featuring Mrs. Clinton and Trump, who is neither
a conservative nor a Sanders socialist, the political priorities of the MSM may
revert to the status quo ante, which
would favor Mrs. Clinton, of the two the most left leaning candidate and the
heir to President Barack Obama’s progressive administration.

Mr. Trump’s second problem is this: He simply cannot move as
agilely in debate as Mrs. Clinton, whose campaign is well fortified with
domestic and foreign policy experts. Here again, Mr. Trump is at a
disadvantage; indeed, some have argued that, in this regard, he is his own
worst enemy, preferring political bling to sound domestic and foreign policy
prescriptions. In addition, the entire Connecticut US Congressional Delegation
is Democratic. There are on the Republican side in Connecticut no politically
well positioned national Republican officeholders to lend an oar to the Trump
campaign on foreign policy matters, his weak suit – even assuming it would be
in their best interest to do so.

Mr. Sanders -- the first serious socialist candidate since
Eugene Debs (1912-1920); Robert LaFollette (1924) and Norman Thomas (1930’s)
also ran for president as socialists – hopes to leave an impression on the
Democratic Party platform and is now running for history. Mrs. Clinton was
running for history during her entire political career. Mr. Trump is running
for himself.