Technology Is Changing Transportation, and Cities Should Adapt

Executive Summary

The shift to next-generation mobility systems won’t be easy for cities to manage. Some cities have chosen a wait-and-see approach, opting to watch mobility trends and develop policy responses as needed as trends play out. Officials might do better to envision what mobility ought to look like five to 15 years from now, and devise policies to bring about that future sooner than it might otherwise arrive.

It has taken only a few years for ride-hailing services to make urban journeys more convenient in many cities, much to the delight of city dwellers the world over. And as innovation brings self-driving cars, electric vehicles, in-vehicle data connectivity, mechanisms for sharing rides and vehicles, and other technologies to more people, getting around cities will become easier, faster, and safer.

The shift to next-generation mobility systems, however, won’t be easy for cities to manage. There is no telling how quickly advances will take place or what the transition will look like.

Research has shown, for example, that the more people use shared private transportation like ride-hailing apps, the more likely they are to also use public transit. But if too many urbanites begin to depend on private vehicles, even shared ones, traffic could get worse and public transit systems might be starved of the fares they need to pay for maintenance and upgrades.

These complex dynamics put municipal authorities in a bind. Some have chosen a wait-and-see approach, opting to watch mobility trends and develop policy responses as needed as trends play out. This approach has merit, given how difficult it is to predict the behaviors of traditional transport businesses, advanced mobility services, and city residents.

Nevertheless, officials might do better to envision what mobility ought to look like five to 15 years from now and devise policies to bring about that future sooner than it might otherwise arrive. Doing so will allow policy makers to play a more proactive role in shaping what that future looks like. Officials who hope to maximize the benefits of advanced mobility might think about several core strategies.

One is how to tailor new mobility approaches to a city or region’s specific context and challenges. For example, it is likely that densely populated cities in developing economies, such as Delhi, Istanbul, and Mumbai, will gain from expanding their public transit systems and complementing them with ride-hailing services that rely on electric vehicles. Our analysis suggests that a developing, dense, average-size city could realize $600 million in annual societal benefits from mobility advances by 2030. Four-fifths of these benefits would stem from reductions in traffic accidents, injuries, and fatalities — a great benefit for the people of these striving, fast-growing areas.

Meanwhile, higher-income metros can take this model a step further by developing a truly integrated mobility system that combines public transit, car sharing, autonomous vehicles, smart infrastructure, and more. One way that cities can quicken the integration of mobility systems is to offer an app-based service for planning and paying for trips that use multiple modes of local transportation. For advanced cities such as London, Shanghai, Singapore, and the like, a “seamless mobility” model could yield societal benefits of up to $2.5 billion per year by 2030. Finally, it is likely that high-income areas of suburban sprawl, where cars remain almost essential, will see big improvements from the extensive use of self-driving vehicles.

As cities move forward, officials must consider what to do with land and roadways as people and vehicles move in different patterns. If more and more people are climbing in and out of shared vehicles at curbside, traffic could stall. Designating zones for pickups and drop-offs might help ease the flow of vehicles. Such zones, as well as other, more valuable uses of urban land, could be carved out of parking spaces, which will be significantly less in demand as vehicles are used more efficiently.

Cities can also explore opportunities to improve transportation access and ensure that all of their inhabitants benefit from advances in mobility. Almost every city has districts that are poorly served by public transit, as well as groups, such as the elderly, who have difficulty using buses and trains. Providing low-cost, on-demand access to a variety of vehicles could improve access for these groups, while also allowing cities to retire low-usage public transit routes.

Advances in mobility will have major implications for cities around the world. Those that get a head start on developing integrated mobility plans will be better positioned to reap the benefits that new technologies will bring to their residents.

Stefan M. Knupfer is a senior partner in the Stamford office and the North America leader of McKinsey’s Sustainability and Resource Productivity Practice.