MeT department predicts poor monsoon due to El Nino

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The Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon indicates somewhat below normal rainfall for this year. Briefing newspersons on the issue the Minister of Science & Technology and Earth Sciences Dr. Harsh Vardhan said the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a possible error of plus or minus five percent (+5%). If the range in terms of percentage of the Long Period Average LPA is between 90 and 96, it is considered as ‘Below Normal’ rainfall forecast. Dr Harsh Vardhan had said that various higher authorities of the Central and State Governments have been informed of details of such forecast. He said the forecast probability of a normal rainfall is only 28%.

The Minister of State Shri Y.S Chowdary has that based on today’s forecast the Agricultural & Irrigation and power departments will also give further advisories for farmers and hydel power projects.

The Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) – India Meteorological Department makes the Southwest monsoon prediction in two stages and the 1st stage made today is a broad long range one which takes into consideration five predictors as follows:

S. No

Predictor

Period when measured

1

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific

December + January

2

Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST

February

3

East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure

February + March

4

Northwest Europe Land Surface Air Temperature

January

5

Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume

February + March

Details released with today’s forecast say that currently weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific and these conditions are likely to persist during the Southwest monsoon season. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over Pacific are known to have a strong influence on the Indian Summer Monsoon. It says, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

In the 2nd stage of forecast, ESSO- IMD year will update the forecast made today again in June this along with monthly forecasts for July and August,2015 for the whole country and separately for the four geographical regions of the country.