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Fiscal Confidence Index

Introduction

In 2012, the Peterson Foundation launched the Fiscal Confidence Index to help policymakers, members of the media, and the American public gauge public opinion on the nation’s fiscal and economic challenges.

The Fiscal Confidence Index is an important indicator of the American public’s views about our fiscal and economic condition and the progress elected leaders are making in addressing it. Since its inception, the Fiscal Confidence Index has consistently shown that Americans hold deep concerns about the level of our long-term debt, and they urge policymakers to make addressing our fiscal and economic future a top priority.

The Fiscal Confidence Index, released monthly, is modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index and measures public opinion about the national debt and the economy by asking questions in three key areas:

CONCERN: Level of concern and views about the direction of the national debt.

PRIORITY: How high a priority addressing the debt should be for elected leaders.

EXPECTATIONS: Expectations about whether the debt situation will get better or worse in the next few years.

The individual scores in these three areas are averaged to produce the Fiscal Confidence Index value. For December 2018, the Fiscal Confidence Index value is 50 (100 is neutral).

Check back monthly for updates.

Detailed Results

Topline survey results from the Fiscal Confidence Index for December 2018. The FCI value for December is 50.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation commissioned this poll by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research to survey public opinion on the national debt. The nationwide poll included 1,003 U.S. registered voters, surveyed by telephone between December 17, 2018 and December 20, 2018. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The poll examined voters’ opinions on the national debt, political leadership, and America’s fiscal and economic health.

The Fiscal Confidence Index value is derived from six questions in three categories: Concern, Priority, and Expectations. The December 2018 scores are: Concern (49), Priority (24), Expectations (76). For the complete methodology used to determine the Fiscal Confidence Index value, click here. For full results, including demographic information, download the PDF below:

Thinking about our national debt over the last few years, would you say your level of concern has increased or decreased?

Is that a lot or just a little?

Increased a lot

40%

Increased a little

24%

Decreased a little

10%

Decreased a lot

6%

(No change)

18%

(Don't Know/Refused)

2%

INCREASED (NET)

64%

DECREASED (NET)

16%

When it comes to addressing our national debt, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction or do you think things are off on the wrong track?

Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?

Right direction - Strongly

16%

Right direction - Somewhat

15%

Wrong track - Somewhat

16%

Wrong track - Strongly

41%

(Neither/Mixed)

7%

(Don't Know/Refused)

5%

RIGHT DIRECTION (NET)

31%

WRONG TRACK (NET)

57%

PRIORITY (24)

Some people say that addressing the national debt should be among the President and Congress' top 3 priorities. Do you agree or disagree?

Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?

Strongly agree

49%

Somewhat agree

29%

Somewhat disagree

11%

Strongly disagree

7%

(Don't Know/Refused)

4%

AGREE (NET)

78%

DISAGREE (NET)

18%

And when it comes to our national debt, do you think it is an issue that the President and Congress should spend more time addressing or less time addressing?

Would you say a lot (more or less) time or just a little?

A lot more time

59%

A little more time

24%

A little less time

4%

A lot less time

4%

(The same amount of time)

5%

(Don't Know/Refused)

4%

MORE TIME (NET)

83%

LESS TIME (NET)

8%

EXPECTATIONS (76)

And thinking about our national debt over the next few years, do you expect the problem to get better or worse?

Is that much (better or worse) or just somewhat (better or worse)?

Much better

10%

Somewhat better

16%

Somewhat worse

27%

Much worse

37%

(No change)

4%

(Don't know/Refused)

6%

BETTER (NET)

26%

WORSE (NET)

64%

And when it comes to our national debt, are you optimistic or pessimistic that the United States will be able to make progress on our national debt over the next few years?

Would you say you are very (optimistic or pessimistic) or just somewhat?

Very optimistic

18%

Somewhat optimistic

32%

Somewhat pessimistic

20%

Very pessimistic

25%

(Neither/Mixed)

3%

(Don't Know/Refused)

3%

OPTIMISTIC (NET)

50%

PESSIMISTIC (NET)

44%

Survey Questions

The six questions, by category, used in surveying for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation Fiscal Confidence Index. For full methodology, click here.

CATEGORY: CONCERN

Thinking about our national debt over the last few years, would you say your level of concern has increased or decreased? Is that a lot or just a little?

When it comes to addressing our national debt, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction or do you think things are off on the wrong track?

Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?

CATEGORY: PRIORITY

Some people say that addressing the national debt should be among the president and Congress' top 3 priorities. Do you agree or disagree?

Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?

And when it comes to our national debt, do you think it is an issue that the president and Congress should spend more time addressing or less time addressing?

Would you say a lot (more or less) time or just a little?

CATEGORY: EXPECTATIONS

And thinking about our national debt over the next few years, do you expect the problem to get better or worse?

Is that much (better or worse) or just somewhat (better or worse)?

And when it comes to our national debt, are you optimistic or pessimistic that the United States will be able to make progress on our national debt over the next few years?

Would you say you are very (optimistic or pessimistic) or just somewhat?

For Press

NEW YORK — Following the 2018 midterm elections, a vast majority of voters across party lines want President Donald Trump and the new Congress to focus on America’s fiscal outlook, according to the Peterson Foundation’s Fiscal Confidence Index, a monthly measure of public attitudes about the national debt and the efforts by elected leaders to address America’s fiscal challenges.

Methodology

As is done with the Consumer Confidence Index, the first step in calculating the Fiscal Confidence Index is determining the "Relative Value" for each question. This calculation is made by taking the positive response for each question and dividing it by the sum of the positive and negative responses. Each question was asked on a four-point scale, and answers were weighted according to intensity, with the strongest responses counting twice as much as the middle responses ("much" better or worse answers count twice as heavily as "somewhat" better or worse answers).

The scores for the Concern, Priority, and Expectations categories are determined by averaging the scores derived from the two questions in each category.

The Fiscal Confidence Index value is converted from the Relative Value to place it on a scale on which 100 indicates equal positive and negative sentiment, while values below 100 indicate negative sentiment and values above 100 indicate positive sentiment.