U.S. forecasts rising energy independence

7:17 PM, December 5, 2012
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Natural gas production, due mostly to extraction from shale rock, will continue its boom through 2040, according to a long-term forecast released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast on Dec. 5. / U.S. Energy Information Administration

by Wendy Koch, USA TODAY

by Wendy Koch, USA TODAY

The United States will become increasingly energy independent in the next three decades as it boosts its production of oil, natural gas and renewable power such as solar and wind, the U.S. government forecast today.

Crude oil production will increase 20% in the coming decade, reaching a peak of 7.5 million barrels per day in 2019, according to the 2013 forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the analytical arm of the Department of Energy. Most of the surge is due to tight oil that's forced from shale rock.

Natural gas will see its boom, also due mostly to extraction from shale deposits, continue even longer -- though 2040. It will account for 27% of total U.S. energy produced by 2020 and 30% in 2040, up from 16% in 2000 and 24% in 2010, the forecast says. At its current rate, it will outpace domestic usage by 2020, prompting the United States to become a net exporter of total natural gas that year.

Siemenski sees another upside: fewer energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The agency expects these emissions to remain 5% below their 2005 level through 2040. It attributes this decline to the required increase in fuel efficiency for new cars and light trucks (from 32.6 miles per gallon in 2011 to 47.3 mpg in 2025), the decreased use of coal and the increased reliance on natural gas and renewable energy.

The agency expects renewable power will see its usage rise faster than that for fossil fuels, largely because cheaper solar panels have lowered costs. It says renewables will likely account for 16% of U.S. electricity generated in 2040, up from 13% in 2011.

The upswing in both energy production and energy efficiency will lower U.S. energy imports -- from 27% of total energy consumed in 2007 and 19% in 2011 to 9% in 2040. The agency expects energy use per capita to decline 15% by 2040 because of gains in efficiency for cars and appliances as well as changes in consumer habits.

The findings, based on implemented policies or final regulations, echo those in its 2012 report, but it extends its forecast five years (through 2040) and includes President Obama's mandate for higher vehicle fuel efficiency.