Time is short

12:01AM BST 07 Oct 2002

Bizarre as it may seem, conservative ideas are back in fashion: tougher sentencing, more choice in public services, an Anglo-American military alliance, a crackdown on illegal immigration. The trouble for the Tories, who meet today in Bournemouth, is that all these ideas are peddled by Tony Blair.

It is true, of course, that little if any of Mr Blair's rhetoric will be translated into policy. Yet it tells us something that the Prime Minister should feel the need to talk this way. Some Tories complain privately that there has been a tectonic shift in public opinion away from them. But Mr Blair is evidently in no doubt: he knows that what used to be thought of as Tory talk wins votes.

Why, then, are the Conservatives - traditionally the champions of this agenda - in such a mess? For there can be no mistaking the seriousness of the party's predicament. As our YouGov poll shows, the Tories, contrary to all expectations and all electoral logic, have fallen still further behind since the 2001 election.

Perhaps inevitably, many blame the leader. This is not entirely fair: the party's unpopularity has deep roots, stretching back to the recession of the early 1990s. As an opponent of the ERM, Iain Duncan Smith is less responsible for his party's predicament than the Majorite ex-ministers now hectoring him. Most of these men have never reconciled themselves to the fact of his leadership, and their hostility was always likely to resurface sooner or later.

Far more worrying for Mr Duncan Smith is the disillusionment in that section of the party that supported his leadership bid. People who ought to be his allies complain that his reluctance to offend any section of opinion has led to paralysis.

Partly in answer to such criticism, Mr Duncan Smith is unveiling his first policy proposals. In so far as they go, these are difficult to argue with: more power for patients, longer sentences for young offenders, incentives for saving. Some of them also have the potential to be immensely popular: ending the scandal whereby people who have tried to provide for themselves end up having to sell everything to pay for their care could win over a large chunk of the electorate.

The idea of the school voucher would finally prevent government from strangling education (see the distinguished voices on the page opposite) and give dignity to schools and choice to parents. Yet the real challenge is to make voters want to listen to the Tories at all.

During the 2001 general election, Mr Duncan Smith's job was to tour marginal seats. It is a fair bet that, while he was doing this, he did not come across many voters who wanted more asylum seekers in Britain, or higher taxes, or shorter prison sentences, or to join the euro. In short, people were not put off by a careful consideration of the Conservative manifesto. They simply did not want to give the Tories the time of day.

Mr Duncan Smith's challenge is to break through this indifference. Popular policies are only part of the solution. They must also be sold in a way that makes even badly disposed voters sit up and listen. In this context, shadow ministers may like to look at a pamphlet being published tomorrow by the think-tank Cchange.

"Direct democracy" by Douglas Carswell argues, in essence, for American-style local democracy: directly elected sheriffs and NHS executives, public hearings for judicial appointments, the democratisation of quangos. Here is an agenda that is easily communicated, attention-grabbing and popular.

Six months ago, Mr Duncan Smith delivered a speech in Harrogate which made the philosophical case for precisely such reforms; but, because it was not backed by eye-catching proposals, it failed to impress itself even on Conservative activists, let alone the wider electorate.

This week, Mr Duncan Smith has another chance to make an impact. He still has cards to play. No one doubts his integrity or his patriotism; and his policy-makers have provided him with some valuable ammunition. But he must be prepared to take risks in order to be noticed. Time is not on his side.