Friday, January 29, 2010

Wintry precipitation still looks to begin late tonight. While there may be some light precipitation late this evening, we anticipate it to be more widespread around midnight and continue through most of Saturday.

Accumulation forecast late tonight through Saturday:

North of the Triangle near the VA border: The area including Oxford and Henderson may see between 8-12" of snow. Ther may be a narrow band of over a foot of snow in this area.

Triangle to Wilson: 5-10" of snow and sleet with some freezing rain possible

Sandhills to Goldsboro: While some snow is possible here, the precipitation will be mainly freezing rain and sleet. 0.5" to 0.75" of ice accumulation is possible. That is enough to create power problems and traffic issues.

Coastal areas: Locations along the coast will see mainly rain of over one inch. Portions of Bladen, Duplin, far inland Onslow, and Craven Counties may see some freezing rain or sleet with the rain. We will watch these areas closely for icing problems.

Are you prepared for the worst case scenario? We'll hope for better conditions, but areas that receive snow and/or ice should expect travel to become extremely dangerous if not impossible by early Saturday morning. Icing and/or heavy snow will lead to extended power outages. Just in case, are you ready to be stuck in your location from Friday night until Monday spending a lot of that time with no power? Temperatures in the Triangle and Sandhills may stay at or below freezing until late Monday morning.

Find the latest forecast every 10 minutes through the day and night on News 14 Carolina with Weather on the Ones.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

The latest weather data this morning still suggests a high chance for a winter storm to impact much of North Carolina late Friday night through the day Saturday. It may not seem that way as today's highs reach near 60, but it does look like the ingredients will come together for a significant storm. Today is a good day to prepare for the possibility of extended power outages and travel problems over the weekend.

Much colder air is still set to move into the Carolinas Friday. A storm system producing snow and ice this morning over the Texas panhandle will eventually meet up with the cold air and produce a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain across the state.

It is possible to see light wintry precipitation late Friday afternoon, but it now appears much of the precipitation may hold off until late Friday night and continue through much of Saturday.

The best chance to see all snow will be in the mountains and near the Virginia border. This morning's update from HPC (see image below) shows areas just north of the Triangle with a high chance of receiving over 4 inches of snow.

Based on the latest model data this morning, I expect to see 6" to 10" of snow north of the Triangle to near the Virginia border. This includes areas around Oxford and Henderson.

In the Triangle, snow will mix with sleet and change to all sleet at times. This should lead to 2" to 6" of snow and sleet accumulation with the higher accumulations on the northern end of the Triangle. Some freezing rain is possible in parts of the Triangle especially from Raleigh to the south. This could lead to about 0.25" of ice accumulation.

Freezing rain will be the dominate precipitation type south of the Triangle around the Sandhills. This includes an area from Southern Pines to Fayetteville to Smithfield to Goldsboro. Around 0.5" of ice accumulation is possible in this area. There could be a narrow band of even higher ice accumulation. We typically see downed trees and power outages with ice accumulations over 0.25"

Locations along the North Carolina coast from the Cape Fear region to the Crystal Coast will see just a cold rain from this system.

Weather weather forecasting is very tricky and these accumulation amounts could certainly be higher or lower. Either way, it does appear a significant winter storm will impact the area. Expect dangerous travel conditions and the possibility for extended power outages beginning Friday night through Saturday.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Weather ingredients are coming together for a winter storm to impact North Carolina beginning late Friday into Saturday. Cold air from the north will arrive Friday. That will combine with ample moisture associated with low pressure moving toward the Carolinas from near the Gulf coast late Friday.

Based on the latest data available today, wintry precipitation should begin around the Triangle and parts of the Sandhills by late Friday afternoon and evening. Locations near the Virginia border will likely see that precipitation as all snow and snow should continue in that area throughout Friday night into Saturday morning. Around the Triangle, the snow will mix with sleet and change to all sleet and freezing rain at times.

It is still a little early to speculate on accumulation amounts, but snow accumulations along the Virginia border and snow and sleet accumulations around the Triangle will be high enough to create travel problems Friday night and Saturday. Power outages will be possible. The graphic below from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) shows a high likelihood for 4" or higher snowfall along the Virginia border. A moderate to high chance is given across the Triangle.

Locations just south of the Triangle may deal with more freezing rain than sleet and snow. This area includes most of the Sandhills and Fayetteville area. Ice accumulations may be high enough to impact travel in this area and create power outages. The graphic below from the HPC shows the high likelihood for freezing rain accumulations greater than a 0.25" across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills of North Carolina.

The Crystal Coast and southeast coast of North Carolina can expect mainly just a cold rain with this winter storm system.

We are still a couple days away from the start of any winter precipitation in our area, and there is still some uncertainty with the forecast. A chance in the track of the low pressure system could cause big changes in the above forecast. News 14 Carolina will continue to provide the latest information with Weather on the Ones updates through the week. Stay tuned...

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Like many of you, I cannot get myself away from the images of the devastation of whats happened in haiti. CNN (and I'm guessing there are many other outlets as well) has been doing continuous coverage and of course there's the question of who is on the ground there away from the network cameras tweeting about this, doing citizen blogging, etc.

There is a twitter / CNN page in case you wanted to find a centralized location :http://twitter.com/cnnbrk/haiti

There are also updates through the US State Department, especially useful for those who have concerns there: http://www.state.gov/

If you want to find a way to donate to help the rescue/recovery efforts, beware of many organizations popping up right now who will gladly take your money and never pass it along to those in need. It always bears repeating that you should use trusted agencies, like the us military, the U.N and the American Red Cross. I've included the Red cross site here:http://www.redcross.org/

Of course, stay tuned to News 14 carolina for updates on this disaster.

A lot of News 14 Carolina viewers have been asking how they can help the folks suffering in Haiti after this week's earthquake. Our web staff has compiled a list of organizations, many based here in North Carolina, that are looking for your help.

Saturday, January 02, 2010

North Carolina is about to endure a week, possibly 2 weeks, of very cold weather.

Overnight lows are expected to drop to the teens to 20s for a prolonged period of time. These home heating tips are among those provided by Progress Energy's website:

• Never use a generator indoors. Always follow manufacturer instructions. • Keep at least one battery-powered flashlight where it can be located easily in the dark. Listen for storm information on a battery-powered radio. Keep an extra supply of fresh batteries.• Make sure you are adequately stocked with canned goods and bottled water.• Make sure any indoor heaters, such as wood stoves or kerosene heaters, have adequate ventilation to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Likewise, make sure the flue of your fireplace is working properly. Never use outdoor grills in the house.• Make sure you have adequate fuel on hand for supplementary heating sources, such as a fireplace, wood-burning stove or kerosene heater.

This announcement from the National Weather Service, Raleigh:

A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH INTENSE COLD EXPECTED THROUGH THEWEEKEND. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DIP TO AS LOW AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES SATURDAY. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE BEGINNING OF A LONG DURATION COLD SPELL WHICH SHOULD LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS EACH NIGHT.

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TYPICALLY EXPERIENCES A COLD SPELL EACHWINTER IN WHICH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15DEGREES. HOWEVER... THE DURATION OF THE COLD USUALLY LASTS ONLY A DAY OR TWO.

THE EXPECTED DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS COLD EVENT WILL BE AVERY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE. THE COLD WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUSLYREINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGHS. THESE HIGHS WILLPUSH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ANDEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COLD EVENT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGHTHE NEXT 7... TO POSSIBLY 14 DAYS... IN WHICH LOWS WILL FREQUENTLYFALL INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MANY HOURS OF SUBFREEZINGTEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT WEEK. A COMPARABLE COLD SPELL BASEDON SOME OF THE HISTORICAL COLD EPISODES FROM THE PAST INCLUDES THELAST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY 1977.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO ENSURE THAT HEATING SYSTEMSARE IN STRONG WORKING ORDER... EXPOSED PIPES ARE PROPERLYINSULATED OR COVERED... CRAWL SPACE VENTS ARE CLOSED. CHECK ON THEELDERLY TO ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE HEATING. INADDITION... REMEMBER THE SAFETY RULES FOR SAFE HOME HEATING. ENSURE PETS ARE PROPERLY CARED FOR. VEHICLES SHOULD BE SERVICED WITH ANTIFREEZE.