Analysis: Iran’s propaganda game inside Iraq

Screenshot from a “Revenge of Muhandis Brigade” video showing an alleged attack on an American helicopter with a surface-to-air missile.

Several new Shia militias have emerged in Iraq since March that claim to have targeted American forces and American-contracted companies. Most of these groups, however, have produced claims with scare, inconsistent, or incorrect details – and little to no visual evidence to corroborate them.

This influx in supposed militias inside Iraq is likely a propaganda game being played by Iran and its allies to create political cover for anti-American activities in the country for more established groups. It also may serve to create a narrative of a far-reaching movement that is opposed to the presence of American troops.

Ostensibly the most legitimate of the newly created groups, LoR released one of these messages as a video statement from its spokesman while another video utilized footage taken from a commercial drone. But since early April, the group has been dormant.

On April 9, another militia called “The People of the Cave” published a statement and video claiming responsibility for attacking a logistics convoy supplying American forces in the country in Salahaddin Governorate the day prior.

In the video, a vehicle was seen driving at night alongside what appears to be a military convoy. Moments later, an explosion occurred against one of the semi-trailers.

But researching the date and location given in the video, only attacks attributed to ISIS were reported that day, which throws into question the validity of the group’s claim.

The threat to act against the ambassadors never materialized, which suggests the group behind the publication may never have intended to carry out their threat. If indeed the threat was never intended to be carried out, it is reasonable to believe the objective of the statement was then for the purpose of propaganda against American and British officials in the country.

For instance, one statement read “targeting of a weapons cache belonging to the American occupation on Monday, February 5, 2020, at 7:00pm in the province of Babylon.” But the date described fell on a Wednesday, not a Monday as stated in the video. The date for its second claim, “Saturday, February 10, 2020,” was also incorrect as that date fell on a Monday.

Furthermore, there were no local reports about an attack on either of the dates provided, which brings the authenticity of the videos further into question.

In utilizing these fronts to claim new attacks against US forces, Iran and its network can achieve plausible deniability and lessen the risk of increased tensions with the United States.

At the same time, other alleged militias that have recently sprang up are possible fabrications meant to create a narrative of a large movement opposed to the presence of American troops.

By creating this image, Iran can help further sow distrust and confusion against US troops in Iraq as well as portray to outsiders that their presence is largely opposed. In both cases, this furthers Iran’s goal of ejecting the US from Iraq.

And with the rate at which these militias are popping up, more are likely to emerge in the near future.

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