Economic recovery will be sluggish, report says

California will experience a fourth year of sluggish recovery in 2013, according to the latest projection from the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

While the Bay Area is surpassing the national economy in terms of growth, and is predicted to continue to lead the recovery in 2013, the fastest pace of job growth will shift inland to the Sacramento and Stockton regions by 2014, according to the center.

The forecast projects more than 2 percent job growth in the Sacramento and Stockton metro areas primarily driven by construction, improving real estate markets and gradual recoveries in state and local government.

Employment already has recovered to prerecession levels in the San Jose and San Francisco metro areas. And the center predicts the Bay Area will continue to lead the economic recovery this year, with the San Francisco and Oakland areas posting job growth of more than 3 percent. By 2014, Bay Area job growth is expected to slow to below 2 percent.

The center forecasts real gross state product will grow 2.2 percent in 2013, a similar pace to the previous three years, before accelerating to 3 percent in 2014 and 4 percent in 2015.

California job growth is predicted to remain steady at about a 2 percent pace over the next few years, marginally faster than the nation.