Shipping Price Moves Bear Draghi Out

When European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi meets the press every month, he has a specific narrative to sell. He punted it around Frankfurt again on Thursday.

Financial markets, in the euro zone and around the world, are returning to normal, he said, but growth remains very sluggish.

The subtext is easy enough to spot: Central banks have shouldered their share of the burden and carried it as far as they could be expected to. They’ve brought markets back from the brink and slashed interest rates to the bone. Now it’s up to governments to provide the confidence that creates growth.

Now you can buy this, or not, but one of the markets’ favorite real-world fear gauges would seem to bear him out. The Baltic Dry Index is an indicator of bulk shipping costs: the price you need to pay to move key raw materials by sea.