Big Sky Basketball

Friday, March 25, 2016

The committee (of one), inspired by ESPN’s Marc Stein, returns one more time this season. We’re gazing into the future, deciphering the signs of the basketball universe and revealing how the Big Sky Conference will unfold in 2017.

Losing Bolomboy, the Big Sky MVP, is no small detail. Then again, this is Weber State. Center Zach Braxton, who averaged 6.9 points on 61 percent shooting while starting 34 games as a freshman, should take a monumental step forward as he develops.

Senior-to-be Kyndahl Hill, the Wildcats’ third-leading scorer at 8.2 points a game, is ready for a primetime role. Freshman point guard McKay Cannon, who spent most of the season shooting spot-up 3-pointers and passing the ball around the perimeter, showed real flashes of real playmaking ability against Xavier in the NCAA Tournament.

Just think about Weber’s depth. The ’Cats had the luxury of bringing absurdly athletic junior guard Richaud Gittens off the bench in 2015-16, and they’ll start incorporating 6-foot-10 redshirt freshman and former Rivals three-star recruit Jordan Dallas into the fold next fall.

And in the biggest OH BY THE WAY, Jeremy Senglin, with Bolomboy off to the pros, becomes the guy for Weber State now. Senglin will vie for conference MVP honors, and the Wildcats will contend for a second straight league championship.

2) NORTH DAKOTA (17-16, 10-8)

Who's gone: No one of consequence

Trending: Up

Eight Fighting Hawks averaged at least 15 minutes a game a season ago. Four were freshmen, two were sophomores and the other two were juniors. That’s the group that pushed UND to 17 victories, a nine-win boost from 2014-15 when North Dakota finished 4-14 in the Big Sky.

We know what Quinton Hooker delivers on a nightly basis. His offensive rating of 120.7 and effective field goal percentage of 55.4 percent are excellent and likely to improve with another year of maturity. But the guy who’s really interesting moving forward is freshman Geno Crandall. He’s nowhere near the offensive dynamo of Hooker, and there were times when UND was overly reliant on Hooker’s scoring. So if Crandall — and the Hawks’ other bevy of contributors — can continue developing their offensive skills, North Dakota will have one heck of a year.

Here’s one area where North Dakota should be much better: on the road. The Fighting Hawks, in league play, went 7-2 at home but 3-6 on the road. And two of those road Ws were at Southern Utah and Northern Arizona. Finding a way to get things done away from Grand Forks is their next step of development.

3) MONTANA (21-12, 14-4)

Who's gone: Martin Breunig (18.9 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.1 bpg)

Trending: Even

For the past two seasons, Montana built itself around the all-league skills of Martin Breunig, and he delivered with back-to-back first-team all-conference selections.

Breunig posted a stellar 120.2 offensive rating via KenPom, and his 62.8 percent effective field goal percentage was 23rd in the country. Breunig was a tank, too, starting 65 games the past two seasons. The committee (of one) took no issue with Bolomboy’s selection as the Big Sky MVP. But if we had a vote, it would have gone to Breunig.

We bring this up because, as well as UM has recruited with DeCuire, replacing Breunig is going to be monstrously difficult for coach Travis DeCuire.

Breunig was the team’s lone senior, and UM signed high school swingman Alphonso Anderson out of Tacoma, Washington, last November. If our math is correct, then, the Grizzlies don’t have another scholarship available. So Montana’s options for replacing Breunig are to either make room on the roster for a transfer or rely on the roster pieces already in place.

The latter of the options is particularly intriguing. Montana has ranked No. 303 and 310 in adjusted tempo in DeCuire’s two seasons, but the current construction of players on the team leads us to think the Griz may decide to speed things up. A faster pace could take advantage of Walter Wright, Mario Dunn and Michael Oguine^^^ — not to mention the shooting talents of Bobby Moorehead, Brandon Gfeller and Jack Lopez.

No matter what the Montana coaching staff decides, though, we’ll just assume it’s the right choice and Montana will battle (again) for the Big Sky crown.

Four is too low for the Vandals. The committee (of one) is already regretting it. The team’s top six scorers are back, and that includes sophomore Victor Sanders (15.9 ppg, 41 FG%) and junior Perrion Callandret (14.0 ppg, 39 FG%).

Idaho’s weakness was its offense. The Vandals were ninth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency (1.033 points per possession), so Sanders and Callandret have to lead the charge to an improved offensive unit. Junior college signee BJ Blake, who averaged 21.2 points a game at North Idaho College as a sophomore, should be able to help right away.

And, ultimately, if the Vandals proceed to defend at a high level, they’re going to be just fine.

Don’t sleep on how much Idaho State will miss Wilson. He was a limited offensive weapon but his defense, rebounding and, most of all, leadership are the kind of things no one outside ISU’s locker room will notice as a big deal until it’s no longer there.

That said, however, Idaho State is in the same position as Weber, North Dakota and Idaho. The Bengals return the bulk of a roster that shocked the league as they nabbed a top-four postseason seed.

One of the biggest accomplishments of ISU’s season, and the reason why Bill Evans was the right choice for coach of year, was that the Bengals won 11 league games despite working from scratch with the roster. Other than Wilson, Idaho State’s top players were new to the program or minor contributors the year before. They’ve got an entire offseason to continue working out together and that extra time to get to know one another on and off the court is important.

We know Ethan Telfair is tremendous. He is, in the committee’s eyes, the most exciting talent in the Big Sky. But if ISU is going to challenge for a championship next season, guys like junior forward Kyle Ingram, freshman Stephen Lennox and freshman Gary Chivichyan have to make similar year-to-year improvements like Luzcando^^ managed in 2016.

Watch what Chivichyan (7.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 38 3P%) does closely. As a true freshman he didn’t work his way to a full-time starter until mid-January, and of his 168 field goal attempts, 151 were from 3. But he’s a solid athlete and there were flashes of an all-around game as the season wore on.

By the end of the season, Portland State’s cast of Division I transfers and junior college signees came together really well. The Vikings played faster than anyone else in the Big Sky, Cameron Forte was a nightmare matchup and PSU developed a toughness the committee (of one) found appealing.

Three starters (Isaiah Pineiro, Calaen Robinson, Zach Gengler) are back from that team, plus junior Braxton Tucker, who started 22 games in 2014-15 and redshirt last season, is slated to return. Throw in junior college transfer Bryce Canda, who should be able to provide some much-needed long-range shooting, and PSU has intriguing talent.

With Colbert gone, Montana State has two key areas to address in recruiting. Coach Brian Fish needs a point guard and an injection of some frontcourt players with size.

Expect MSU to go the juco route to fix at least one of those issues, and the Bobcats will structure their offense (to an even greater degree) around the abilities of sophomore-to-be Tyler Hall.

Montana State has a number roster issues, but the ’Cats take our No. 7 spot because … A) We believe Fish and his staff can recruit. He’ll fill the holes. … B) Hall is the Big Sky’s next big thing.

8) NORTHERN COLORADO (10-21, 7-11)

Who's gone: No one

Trending: Even

In our continuing theme, Northern Colorado was an exceedingly young team in 2015-16 and didn’t have a senior on its roster. That’s good news.

What’s bad news, however, is that BJ Hill and UNC have ranked 305th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency in each of the past five seasons. Northern Colorado was 348th in AdjD in 2016, giving up 1.165 points per possession. At this point we know Northern Colorado is a miserable defensive squad, and without any major additions to the current roster that’s not changing.

But the committee (of one) loves the idea of continuity. And assuming the Bears take the floor with the same cast of guys next season, they’ll make improvements in all aspects, and — maybe — they’ll even get a few stops on defense.

Eastern returns some talent next season in Felix Von Hofe, Bogdan Bliznyuk and Julian Harrell. And the Eagles will have 6-foot-7 Australian Geremy McKay ready to go after he had to sit out a season following his transfer from Albany.

But McKay is a freshman who hasn’t played for two years, and he’s part of team filled with 12 freshmen and sophomores. The 2016-17 season could be a rebuilding year as the Eagles transition to a new era.

Sophomores Justin Strings and Marcus Graves are two solid building blocks, and freshman Jeff Wu has us interested. But Sacramento State, which was 295th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, lacks the pieces that shows the committee (of one) the Hornets will be demonstratively better on that side of the ball next season. The Big Sky Conference, with rare exceptions, is ruled by great guards, and that’s what the Hornets are missing.

It stinks that Kris Yanku’s collegiate career is over. ESPN’s Jeff Goodman reported Thursday that Yanku, a junior, will not return to NAU for his senior season. He’s “deciding between transfer/turning pro.”

It’s an unsatisfying end to what had been a brilliant career. The committee’s lasting memory of the heady point guard is from his freshman season.

The Lumberjacks were in Pocatello playing the Bengals and Yanku walked to the line for a free-throw attempt with 6 seconds left in the game and the score tied. Yanku had drawn foul by stealing the ball away from ISU’s Chris Hansen on the other end of the floor.

On the road, chaotic ending, senior muttering sweet words in your ear — it was just a ballsy couple plays for Yanku and ones he made again and again for the ’Jacks. But the relationship , it seems, ended because Yanku rebelled against coach Jack Murphy and the NAU staff as they labored through a five-win season. It’s too bad.

Trending: To be determined … not really sure down is an option, anyway

Nick Robinson is out. And Todd Simon, who was a high school coach in 2013, is Southern Utah’s new head coach for men’s basketball.

Simon built a reputation as a top recruiter in his three years at UNLV. Recruiting, as it turns out, was Robinson’s greatest downfall. The Thunderbirds never consistently pulled in elite players in his Robinson’s four years in Cedar City.

Robinson and SUU relied heavily on high school kids to fill out their roster, rather than dipping into the juco ranks for a quick fix. It’ll be intriguing to see which approach Simon takes.

FINAL RPI RANKINGS FOR THE BIG SKY

108 - Weber State

144 - Montana

190 - Idaho

218 - North Dakota

232 - Eastern Washington

256 - Idaho State

260 - Montana State

273 - Sacramento State

282 - Portland State

304 - Northern Colorado

333 - Northern Arizona

335 - Southern Utah

CURRENT KENPOM RANKINGS FOR THE BIG SKY

137 - Weber State

146 - Montana

194 - North Dakota

195 - Eastern Washington

213 - Idaho

257 - Montana State

261 - Portland State

277 - Idaho State

284 - Sacramento State

312 - Northern Colorado

340 - Southern Utah

343 - Northern Arizona

* The committee (of one) truly wanted to select either North Dakota’s Quinton Hooker or Idaho State’s Ethan Telfair as the 2016-17 Big Sky MVP. But if we’re under the assumption Weber State is going to win the league, we have to pick a Wildcat as the MVP. It’s rare when those two things don’t coincide. And, hey, Senglin is good — like real good.

^ Notice how there are five players on our all-conference team? Big Sky coaches should take note, because we’re sick of seeing six players on the league’s all-conference teams. It’s a joke. Why six? It makes no sense … unless, of course, you remember the fact that the coaches who vote for the all-conference teams are thinking about job security and padding their resumes.

** Five guards on the all-conference team? That’s ridiculous. … And, yeah, it is. But with Bolomboy, Breunig and Jois graduating, there’s a dearth of quality big men in the conference. New guys will emerge, no doubt. But as we look at the conference, there’s no question to the committee (of one) that the five best players are guards. Taking that thought a step further, we could make a second all-conference team with five different players and it’d still largely consist of guards. That’s the state of the Big Sky.

*** Wait, Montana State is picked by the committee (of one) to finish seventh in the league. That’s where the ’Cats finished last season. So why are they “trending” up?

Well, thanks for asking imaginary friend. The answer is because this whole “trending” thing is 1) a gimmick and 2) more a reflection of how the committee (of one) feels about the program from a big-picture perspective. And when it comes to Montana State, we like Fish and we like Hall. MSU is trending in the right direction.

HOW WE GOT HERE: Last Wednesday … Eastern Washington knocked off Pepperdine 79-72. EWU’s Venky Jois was limited to 12 minutes with a sore knee (according to EWU athletics) and the Eagles shot 10 for 32 from 2-point range — not good. But led by Austin McBroom, Felix Von Hofe and Bogdan Bliznyuk, the Eagles drained 14 3-pointers and 17 of 20 free-throw attempts to sneak out a win.

Last Wednesday … Nevada trailed Montana by 10 at halftime, but rallied in the second half behind D.J. Fenner’s and Lindsey Drew’s combined 30 points and six 3-pointers of a 79-75 victory.

PREVIEWING THE GAME: First things first: Yes, Jois is expected to play against the Wolf Pack. And on the injury front for Nevada, the Wolf Pack’s leading scorer, senior guard Marqueze Coleman, should return to the floor.

Coleman, Nevada’s highest usage rate player, averages 15.9 points a game but has been fighting a bum ankle he turned Feb. 24 against Utah State.

On the matchup itself, this is strength versus strength. Eastern is 62nd in the country in offensive points per possession (1.102), and Nevada is 39th in defensive points per possession (.965).

It’s also a game of weakness versus weakness. Nevada has one of the country’s least-productive offenses, ranking 289th in offensive points per possession (.978), and Eastern is even worse defensively, giving up 1.133 points per possession, 329th in the nation.

So in really simple terms, can Eastern overcome its porous defense by hitting enough 3-pointers to outscore Nevada? Or maybe the Wolf Pack will take advantage of the Eagles and have a great offensive performance.

Nevada is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in college basketball, but seven 3s in the second half against Montana helped drive the Wolf Pack in the come-from-behind victory. Fenner, a junior, had a team-high 24 points, and even if Coleman is able to return, Fenner has become a good gauge for Nevada’s success. The Reno Gazette-Journal’s Chris Murray, in an article you can find here, wrote that in Nevada’s wins, Fenner averages 14.9 points on 39.7 percent shooting. In the team’s losses, his production drops to 30.4 percent shooting and 10.8 points a game.

A couple tidbits to keep in mind for the game: Eastern’s win against Pepperdine was the school’s first in a national postseason tournament as a member of Division I. … It was also EWU coach Jim Hayford’s 500th game as a collegiate head coach. … The Eagles are 3-9 all-time versus the Wolf Pack. Eastern’s lone victory in Reno against Nevada was on Feb. 22, 1990. … EWU’s Jois, who has 1,803 points in his career, needs seven more to move into 12th place in Big Sky Conference history.

Friday, March 18, 2016

One, a Big Sky bball dot com Xavier-Weber State preview of the game is here. And if you're a Wildcat fan — or at least rooting for WSU — consider this for a bit of hope: Eastern Washington beat Pepperdine on Wednesday in the CBI. Pepperdine beat St. Mary's twice during the regular season. St. Mary's beat Gonzaga twice during the regular season. Gonzaga handled Seton Hall on Thursday in the NCAA tournament. Seton Hall knocked off Xavier in the Big East postseason tournament.

So, in recap, ... EWU > Pepperdine > St. Mary's > Gonzaga > Seton Hall > Xavier. Based off those ridiculous factors, is it fair to think Weber State can pull off a shocking upset? After all, WSU > EWU ... right? On to the links ...

CollegeInsider.com tournament

The Fighting Hawks finish on a two-game losing streak, falling in overtime to Weber State in the Big Sky tournament and UC Irvine in the CIT. That's tough, but UND's potential for next year couldn't be higher.

Here's what North Dakota coach Brian Jones told the Herald on Wednesday: “It was a high-level game. Both teams played really hard and both were really prepared. We got quality shots in regulation and overtime and that’s all you can ever want. You can’t control whether the ball goes in but you can control the quality of looks you get.”

HOW WE GOT HERE: Xavier lost 87-83 in the semifinals of the Big East tournament to Seton Hall. The Musketeers still managed to snag a a No. 2 seed in theBig Dance based on its 28 victories — 12 coming against teams in the top 100 of the latest RPI rankings.

Weber State, which has 26 wins of its own and is No. 108 in the RPI, won both the regular season and postseason tournament in the Big Sky Conference. The Wildcats, of course, can’t match the number of quality wins of the Musketeers. In terms of RPI, WSU’s best win was Dec. 22 at home, a 99-95 victory against South Dakota State (26-7, No. 28 in the RPI).

PREVIEWING THE GAME: Let’s start with the most pressing question in regard to this game and work our way from there: Can Weber State pull off the upset and knock off Xavier? The Wildcats are 6-16 all-time in the NCAA tournament, and the Big Sky Conference hasn’t won a game in the Dance since 2006 when 12th-seeded Montana beat No. 5 Nevada 87-79.

Weber State last made a major splash in the NCAA tourney when it shocked No. 3 North Carolina 76-74 in 1999. Since 1985, when the tournament field was expanded to 64 teams, the Big Sky Conference has three wins, total — like, period.

2006

No. 12 Montana 87, No. 5 Nevada 79

1999

No. 14 Weber State 76, No. 3 North Carolina 74

1995

No. 14 Weber State 79, No. 3 Michigan State 72

In the past 31 years, a Big Sky team has lost to a No. 1 seed eight times, a 2 seven times, a 3 four times, a 4 eight times and a 5 once.

Getting to the point: Weber State and the rest of the Big Sky need monumental wins for the league to garner respect. But when your best team — this year, the Wildcats — goes 18-3 against league competition, works itself to No. 108 in the RPI, has an NBA draft prospect and still only manages a 15 seed in the tournament … well … it’s an uphill battle.

And that’s nothing new.

Getting back around to the original question of whether WSU can pull off an upset …

Xavier is no joke. The Musketeers are one of nine teams in the country that have reached five Sweet 16s since 2008. Sophomore Trevon Bluiett is XU’s first All-American since Tu Holloway in 2011-12.

The talk in Cincinnati this week is whether this season’s Xavier men’s basketball squad is the school’s best, ever. EVER. That’s no quaint discussion to have considering the program’s basketball chops.

That sort of discussion springs up after Xavier was tabbed as a No. 2 seed, the best in the school’s history. And it’s placed the Musketeers in unfamiliar territory. Usually, they’re viewed as one of the little guys, the underdog in the NCAA tournament. As Shannon Russell, the Xavier beat writer for the Cincinnati Enquirer, points out in a recent article, the Musketeers were a 6 seed a year ago, a 12 in 2014 and a 10 in 2012.

“Where teams mess up is the fact that they try to get comfortable,” junior guard Myles Davis told the Enquirer. “We don’t want to be comfortable. We want to be just as hungry as any other team.”

So is it possible Xavier adjusts poorly to the reality of being the “hunted” rather than the “hunter?” If there’s a positive of being a 13.5-point underdog in the tournament like Weber coach Randy Rahe and the Wildcats, it’s always the fact that the neutral-site crowd will root for you in a close game. And if WSU can keep within striking distance of XU late into the second half, the pressure of the moment falls squarely on the Musketeers.

And, yes, it does seem like a possibility Weber State can give itself a shot at keeping things close Friday. The Wildcats are 90th in the country in defensive efficiency, holding teams to .100 points per possession. With Joel Bolomboy, Kyndahl Hill and Zach Braxton patrolling the paint, WSU was particularly good defensively in the Big Sky, leading the league in defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point defensive shooting percentage.

The formula for Weber on Friday …… Control the pace of the game — XU is 29th in the country in adjusted tempo — to keep Xavier’s athletes in check + get comfortable working against the Musketeer’s 1-3-1 zone* + Bolomboy needs to dominate the paint and defensive glass + and Jeremy Senglin has to play out of his mind.^

If any of those things don’t happen, it’s hard to conjure a scenario where Weber State comes out on top. But who the heck knows, really? This is supposed to be the NCAA tournament where everybody’s bracket is shredded to pieces because there are no clear favorites. This is the season of parity.

And maybe it’s the season when Weber State can become the darling for the nation. Maybe.

*According to an article on FiveThiryEight, Xavier has used the 1-3-1 zone on 33.6 percent of its defensive possessions and held opponents to .797 points per possession when doing so — which is just spectacular.

^Senglin averaged 22.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists during the Big Sky tournament, shooting 10 for 18 from 2 (48.9 percent) and 13 for 29 from 3 (44.8 percent). If Senglin hadn’t gone off for seven 3-pointers and 31 points in the semifinals against North Dakota, the Wildcats would be taking part in the NIT.

CollegeInsider.com tournament

WINNER GETS Depends. The CollegeInsider tournament, as its site notes, “uses the old NIT model in which there is no set bracket. Future round opponents are determined by the results of the previous round.”

HOW WE GOT HERE: UC Irvine, the No. 2 seed in the Big West tournament, was upset by third-seeded Long Beach State 77-72 in the semifinals. North Dakota was knocked off the semis of the Big Sky 83-78 in overtime by Weber State.

PREVIEWING THE GAME: Great news for North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks are hosting a postseason game as a Division I basketball program for the first time.

Bad news for North Dakota. The Hawks make the CollegeInsider.com tournament and are pitted against UC Irvine, a 25-win team ranked No. 94 by KenPom and No. 75 in the RPI.

Mamadou Ndiaye is 7 foot 6 and the anchor of the Anteaters’ defense that is 58th in the country holding teams to .970 points per possession.

UC Irvine, though, is much more than Ndiaye. He’s the team’s second-leading scorer and plays under 24 minutes a night. The Anteaters dip deep into their bench with 10 guys averaging at least 10 minutes. Certainly, Ndiaye is impactful. His production — 12.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.47 bpg, 66.5 percent shooting — is downright impressive considering how much time he spends resting.

In light of Ndiaye’s size and strengths, Irvine doesn’t play fast, ranking 219th in adjusted tempo. So expect North Dakota, hopefully in front of a big crowd, to try and ratchet up the intensity and speed of the game.

That’s how Quinton Hooker, Drick Bernstine and Geno Crandall have the best shot at pulling off what would arguably be their best win of the season.

Those two, actually, will need to play well if the Eagles are going to win this game. Pepperdine beat Montana back in November 69-63 and also has wins against Saint Mary’s (twice) and BYU. This game is particularly important to the Waves program. Fifth-year head coach Marty Wilson and his team can surpass their win total of 18 from a season ago, the most victories Pepperdine would have in a single season since 2002.

The guy to watch for the Waves is junior Lamond Murray Jr.. He was an All-WCC second-team selection and averaged 17.3 points a game in league play. That’s after putting up just under seven points a game as a sophomore.

Pace will be an important facet of this game. Pepperdine is 209th in the country in adjusted tempo and Eastern is 118th. The Eagles don’t want to be forced to match up with the Waves in a half-court battle.

HOW WE GOT HERE: Idaho lost to Montana 81-72 in the Big Sky semifinals. Seattle dropped a 72-47 decision to CSU Bakersfield in the semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference.

PREVIEWING THE GAME: Idaho is the lone Big Sky Conference team favored to win this week. Seattle is two games below .500, went 7-7 in the WAC and possesses one of the least productive offenses in the country. The Redhawks No. 324 in offensive points per possession (.938).

The Vandals, as we know, are very good defensively and will make life tough for the 'Hawks, who are led by junior guard Brendan Westendorf — the lone player on the team to average double digits (13.0 ppg) in points.

Idaho isn’t elite on offense, either, but Victor Sanders and company should have the firepower to win on the road if they can do one thing: defensive rebound. Seattle is shooting 45 percent from 2-point range (310th in the country) and 35.3 percent from 3 (143rd in the country), but those poor shooting percentages are somewhat offset by a 32.5 percent offensive rebounding rate (81st in the country).

HOW WE GOT HERE: Nevada lost 67-55 to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference semifinals. Montana dropped a a 62-59 thriller to Weber State in the Big Sky Conference title game.

PREVIEWING THE GAME: Nevada is in the midst of its best season since joining the Mountain West Conference four years ago. The program’s 19 wins is 10 more than a season ago and marks one of the biggest turnarounds in the country.

The Wolf Pack, who played the 119th toughest schedule in college basketball according to KenPom.com, beat Montana State (83-62) and Portland State (76-73) during nonconference play and have solid wins against UNLV, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State.

Nevada’s greatest strength is its defense where it ranked second in Mountain West Conference action, holding teams to .972 points per possession and an effective field goal percentage of 46 percent.

This is going to be a physical game, but the Griz have a shot to pull the upset if the likes of Jack Lopez, Walter Wright, Michael Oguine, Bobby Morehead or Brandon Gfeller can hit a few shots from deep to take the pressure of Martin Breunig. The Wolf Pack have one of the stoutest defenses the Grizzlies will face this season, so we’ll find out what kind of game plan UM head coach Travis DeCuire can come up with to win on the road.

Musketeers coach Chris Mack to the Enquirer: “This team’s had a remarkable regular season, one that I’m really proud of. But as I told our team, and again I’m looking more in the future, I’ve been around teams that have barely made the NCAA tournament and gone on incredible runs. And then I’ve seen the opposite, where you knew you were in for a month or so and didn’t fare so well. So we’re not entitled to anything. I think our team understands that."

Wildcats coach Randy Rahe in the Examiner: “We will be ready to compete, there is no question. I want them to enjoy the experience, but when it's time to lock in and get ready to go in our preparation, they'll get locked in and ready to go.”

The Enquirer's Paul Daughtry wrote: "This is definitely Xavier’s time. Time for more validation and continued steps along the trail up Mt. Elite. Xavier has been on the Final 4 fringes for a decade, with groups of players either not as talented, as together or as deep as this group."

Xavier guard Myles Davis to the Enquirer on what he knew about Weber State early on: "Mack told us that they like to shoot jump shots. That’s the most that we know. I know that their main player averages about 18 points a game. I heard all their losses were…they didn’t lose by a lot. They’re a very good team, one that we’re not going to overlook."

Sunday, March 13, 2016

The Big Sky Conference champions are a 15 seed and headed to play second-seeded Xavier on Friday in the Scottrade Center in in St. Louis, Missouri.

Xavier (27-5) is ranked fifth in the country and coming off an 87-83 loss to Seton Hall in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. The No. 2 seed in the tournament is the highest in the school's history.

The Musketeers have reached 10 of the last 11 NCAA Tournaments and 14 of the last 16. Seventh-year head coach Chris Mack has led Xavier to six NCAA Tournaments in his first seven years, including three Sweet 16 berths.

The Musketeers are No. 15 in Ken Pomeroy’s latest rankings. Led by 6-foot-6 sophomore Trevon Bluiett, Xavier is 36th in the country in defensive efficiency (.962 points per possession) and 18th in offensive efficiency (1.158 points per possession).

Bluiett, who is one of two Musketeers to start every game this season, leads the team in scoring (15.5 ppg) and is second in rebounding (6.2 rpg). Bluiett is a former four-star recruit who picked Xavier over programs like UCLA, Arizona, Indiana and Michigan. But he’s just part of a potent offense. Freshman Edmond Sumner (11.3 ppg), junior Myles Davis (11.1) and senior James Farr (10.8) all average double figures for a team that’s 29th in the nation in adjusted tempo and 18th in points per game (81.3).

Saturday, March 12, 2016

After Idaho defeated Idaho State 67-55 in the Big Sky women's basketball championship game, Vandals coach Jon Newlee gestured toward Bengal fans. It caused Idaho State athletic director Jeff Tingey to Tweet, "Class act. Idaho's Newlee came to the @ISUBengals fans post-game to gloat and celebrate...twice. They can have him."

In the video above, Newlee explained why he was upset with fans from Idaho State.

And here's a screen grab of Tingey's Tweet that has since been deleted.

For some additional background on Newlee's history with Idaho State, he is the school's second-winningest women's basketball coach with 93 career victories. Newlee was in Pocatello from 2002-07 and went 54-34 in the Big Sky Conference. He led the program to a conference tournament championship in 2007. Following the 2007-08 season and a berth in the WNIT, Newlee left ISU for Idaho.

HISTORY IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: This is the eighth time Weber State and Montana are meeting in the championship game of the Big Sky tournament. The Grizzlies hold a 4-3 edge, including four straight wins — three of those with Wildcats coach Randy Rahe on the sideline.

2013

Montana 67, Weber State 64

2012

Montana 85, Weber State 66

2010

Montana 66, Weber State 65

2005

Montana 63, Weber State 61

1995

Weber State 84, Montana 62

1980

Weber State 50, Montana 42

1978

Weber State 62, Montana 55 OT

PREVIEWING THE GAME: Looking back at the one game these teams played Feb. 27 in Ogden, Utah, for any clues about how Saturday night will play out seems dangerous.

Big Sky Conference MVP Joel Bolomboy didn’t suit up for Weber State (advantage: Montana), but the Wildcats also benefited from a home attendance of 8,960 boisterous fans (advantage: Weber).

Weber State will field its full team for the championship tilt, and the neutral-court setting is something else entirely different from their first game. Attendance for the semifinals Friday was officially 2,362.

I guess what this really means is that we’ve got a matchup tonight where neither team has a distinct advantage.

KenPom’s numbers tell us the same thing. Using conference-only stats, Montana has the league’s second-best offense. Weber State counterattacks with the No. 1 defense. WSU is fourth in the league in points per possession on offense. UM is fourth in defensive points per possession.

Up and down KenPom’s metrics, any strength of the Grizzlies is offset by something the Wildcats do exceptionally well. And if the ’Cats are good in one area, the Griz are positioned to counteract it.

But there is one facet of the game that is interesting. Montana relies on 3-pointers for 38.5 percent of its field goal attempts, the fourth-highest mark in the Big Sky. Weber State defends the 3-point line at a high level. The Wildcats are fifth in the Big Sky in 3-point field goal percentage (34.1 percent).

But what Weber does particularly well on defense is limiting how many 3-pointers its opponents take. In conference action, a league-low 23.9 percent of opponents’ field goal attempts were from beyond the arc against WSU. Over the entire season, 27.5 percent of the field goal attempts versus Weber’s D were from 3 — the seventh-lowest mark in the country.

Limiting 3-point attempts is a huge part of the defensive game plan for Weber. Montana, during the 18-game conference schedule, shot just over 21 3-pointers per game. The Griz were held to 11 attempted 3s in their game versus Weber, tied for the fewest they had in any game this season.*

While the chess match along the 3-point line will be fun to watch, there are a couple individual matchups that we all want to check out. Because of Bolomboy’s knee injury late in the regular season, we were robbed of seeing the Big Sky MVP go up against Grizzlies star forward Martin Breunig, who is averaging 21 points and eight rebounds in the tournament, when the teams squared off two weeks ago.

So will it be Senglin who has the game of his life to push the Wildcats to the Big Sky championship? Or will it be Breunig? … maybe Bolomboy? … or Wright? … or Dusty Baker? … or Oguine?

We’ll find out at 6:45 MST on ESPNU.

*Note: The number of 3-pointers attempted isn't everything — duh, right? And Montana isn’t going to hoist up a bunch of long-distance treys just to meet some sort of quota. In fact, the Griz only shot 12 3s in the semifinals against Idaho. The bad part for the Vandals? UM made seven of those shots. And this goes back to what we all know — efficiency is the important thing here.

TRENDS/WHAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Old power versus new power. Established versus up-and-coming. A nine-time champion versus a program that jumped up to Division I athletics eight years ago.

If Weber State wins, it moves into the championship game of the Big Sky tournament for the 16th time. North Dakota reached the tournament semifinals in ’13 and the finals in ’14.*

Like a number of other games in the tournament, this matchup is about tempo. The Wildcats defends so well in the half court that an opponent has to manufacture points by getting stops or turnovers and running in the open court. In the quarterfinals, Weber State gave up 19 points off turnovers and 16 points via the fast break.

North Dakota is a more well-rounded offensive unit than PSU, but the Fighting Hawks can’t let this turn into a slow, one-shot, half-court slog.

Looking at the individual matchups, North Dakota needs to find an answer for WSU guard Jeremy Senglin, who averaged 27 points against the Hawks during the regular season. Going back to Senglin’s freshman season, he’s played great against UND — putting up 21 points in their one meeting in 2015 and scoring a combined 40 points versus North Dakota in three games two years ago.

Another facet of this semifinal: North Dakota is now the lone team remaining that didn’t have a first-round bye. The Hawks, after playing at Montana and Montana State last week, flew directly to Reno, Nevada, from Bozeman, Montana. They’ve been on the road for more than week, and this will be UND’s fifth game in nine days.

To some extent, it won’t matter a bit. Adrenaline and the allure of an NCAA tournament bid will provide plenty of fuel. But at some point, WSU’s fresher legs could mean the difference on a loose ball or long rebound.

TRENDS/WHAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON: If Weber-North Dakota is old versus new, Montana-Idaho is a throwback to another time.

The Griz and Vandals were charter members of the Big Sky Conference in 1963 and have played 192 times, according to UM’s athletic department. They’ve combined to win 13 Big Sky championships and were potent rivals until Idaho left the Big Sky following the 1995-96 athletic season.

The Vandals have been back in the league since 2014, and this is the first time they’ll play the Grizzlies in men’s postseason basketball in 20 years.

Montana forward Martin Breunig dominated Sacramento State in the quarterfinals with 24 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks. The Grizzlies won 70-53 and it wasn’t that close. UM scored 1.15 points per possession and held Sac to .87 points per possession.

Idaho, of course, will be a much different test. The Vandals held Eastern Washington to 28.1 percent (9 for 32) shooting from 3 in the quarterfinals, and freshman Nate Sherwood, who averages 6.4 points a game, blasted the Eagles for 19 points.

It feels like Sherwood, or some other role player for Idaho or Montana, could be the difference in this game, too. The Grizzlies and Vandals are the slowest-paced teams in the Big Sky. Who can execute against a set defense? Who can nab a couple offensive rebounds? Who can knock down a contested 3-pointer? Can someone get a couple steals and easy layups? All those little things will loom large in this slugfest.

*Note: In 2014, UND beat Sac State and Portland State on the way to the championship game where it lost to Weber State 88-67. Earlier this sentence read that UND had never advanced past the semifinals.

2) Can Forte maintain his torrid pace against the league’s top defense?

PSU forward Cameron Forte stung Northern Colorado for 26 points, 12 rebounds and four assists in the Vikings’ 74-67 win in the first round. That sort of double-double has become downright common for Forte in the past month.

Here are Forte’s points, rebounds and assists in his previous nine games …

26-13-2

17-7-0

23-16-5

32-9-1

24-13-5

17-5-5

20-13-10

25-5-2

26-12-4

Going back one more game, Forte has ripped off 10 straight games with at least 13 points. He’s got five double-doubles and one triple-double in his last nine games … and he’s doing that while shooting 86 of 139 (61.8 percent) from the field.

Forte put together two solid performances against the Wildcats during the regular season (both WSU wins), averaging 17.5 points, seven rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest.

But those kinds of numbers probably won’t be enough for PSU to upset Weber, an eight-point favorite, in the quarterfinals. As it’s been mentioned numerous times on this blog in the past few weeks, WSU is the Big Sky’s top defensive team, holding league opponents to .943 points per possession — by far the best mark in the Big Sky (Idaho is second at .989 points allowed per possession).

And Weber, with its strong front court and athletic guards, is very good defending inside the paint. And that’s where the Vikings want to attack.

Heck, after just thinking about Forte versus Weber State’s D, I don’t even need three more reasons for you to watch the quarterfinals. Especially when you read the Tweet below …

Portland State's Cameron Forte is feasting early. After and-1 he looks right at me and says "Imma be here all day." #BigSkyMBB

And now they’re going head to head for a spot in Friday night’s semifinals.

4) Sac State fan advantage?

Sacramento to Reno is a 132-mile drive — 789 miles shorter than Missoula to Reno. It could mean that for the first time in … ever? … the Hornets will have a fan advantage going against Montana in a Big Sky basketball tournament.

Word on Tuesday was that Sac had a nice contingent on hand during its 79-75 victory against the Bobcats. When you’re the 10 seed trying to knock off the mighty Grizzlies, every little bonus helps.

5) A rivalry to behold

Since Sacramento State upset Montana State, we’re deprived of a Cat-Griz throwdown in the postseason. But that’s OK because Idaho-Eastern Washington could bud into something special in the coming years.

These two universities are only separated by 72 miles and one state border. Both seemed positioned to have success in basketball for years to come, and if they continue to butt heads in high-stakes games then we’ll have a burgeoning rivalry in the Northwest that will be fun to watch.

WSU head coach Randy Rahe to the Standard-Examiner on Portland State: “They’re playing their best basketball. They’re playing loose and they’re playing really well right now. The game that I watched yesterday on film was probably the best performance I’ve seen them have all year. We’ve got a big challenge there.”

Idaho State coach Bill Evans told the Journal: “North Dakota, obviously, is a very good team. They have one of the best guards in the league in Quinton Hooker. They have one of the best freshman in the league in (Geno) Crandall. (Drick) Bernstine's a really good player. They have really good complimentary players. … I think they're a team that could win this tournament.”

The quarterfinals of the Big Sky women's tournament were as good as basketball gets. Four games decided by a total of 11 points. Two game-winning 3-pointers in the closing seconds. One overtime. One game where the teams beat the heck out of one another. One game where there was a combined 156 field goal attempts. Wednesday had everything you could have asked for.

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About Me

I am a University of North Dakota alum, Denver resident, and college basketball lover. Email me at bigskybball@gmail.com for links, comments, tips, advertising, etc

For the end of the 2015-16 season, Kyle Franko will be taking over the site. He is a former Idaho State beat writer that loves the Big Sky! Email him with any questions, tips, or comments at kyle.franko3@gmail.com