A large-scale, real-life experiment
continues to be run. The "piston effect",
as described elsewhere on these web pages, makes it more difficult
to attain the 0.07 ppm 8-hour ozone standard compared to the
0.075 ppm standard. The piston effect says that as ozone control
strategies are implemented, the hourly distribution of ozone
concentrations will not decrease uniformly, with the highest
concentrations decreasing faster than the concentrations below
the highest level. The result of the "piston
effect" is that as new control strategies are implemented,
the states, tribes, and the US EPA will see some progress in
the reduction of hourly average ozone concentrations at sites
that experience 0.10 ppm and above. These reductions will translate
into lower 4th highest seasonal 8-hour daily maximum concentrations.
As the states, tribes, and the EPA continue to strive for further
reductions in the 8-hour average concentrations by attempting
to reduce the hourly average concentrations below 0.09 ppm, because
of the "piston" effect, progress will begin to slow
down. The EPA, tribes, and the states may notice that the implemented
control strategies may not working as effectively as models originally
predicted and may conclude erroneously that more stringent local
controls will be needed. In some locations, the 8-hour standard
will be attained for specific years but in other years, the 8-hour
standard may be violated at the same location. As the years go
by, an oscillation in and out of violation may occur. Please
visit our concerns web page to follow
the progress made in meeting the 8-hour standard. On that page,
please note the decrease of the trending in the 8-hour ozone
concentrations nationwide in the shorter trending period compared
to the longer trending period.

Research reported in the literature has
described the problems in reducing hourly concentrations of ozone.
Lefohn et al. (1998) identified those sites that demonstrated
a significant reduction in ozone levels for the period 1980-1995.
Using the data from the sites that experienced reduced ozone
levels over the period of time, the authors investigated whether
the rate of decline of the mid-level hourly average concentrations
was similar to the rate experienced by the high hourly average
concentrations. The analysis indicated that there is a greater
resistance to reducing the hourly average concentrations in the
mid range than the hourly average concentrations above 0.09 ppm.
Figure 1 below is an example that shows that the higher hourly
average concentrations (i.e., above 90 ppb) decreased at a faster
rate (greater negative rate per year) than the hourly average
concentrations in the mid-level range. The numbers of hourly
average concentrations in the low end of the distribution also
decreased. Both the high and low ends of the distribution moved
toward the center of the distribution.

Figure 1

Lefohn et al. (1998) discussed the movement
of the low hourly average ozone concentrations toward the mid-level
values (i.e., the decrease of the frequency of the lower hourly
average concentrations). Figure 2 illustrates the frequency of
occurrence

Figure 2

of hourly average ozone concentrations
at two monitoring sites. The Custer National Forest site in Montana
experiences very low maximum hourly average concentrations. The
distribution of the hourly average concentrations at the site
shows a lack of both high and low hourly average concentrations.
The number of lower hourly average concentrations is reduced
because of a lack of NOx scavenging. As reductions in emissions
occur, the shift from the lower hourly average concentrations
to mid-level values is expected to occur. For 1980, more than
10% of the hourly average and 8-hour daily maximum concentrations
at the site were above 0.05 and 0.059 ppm, respectively. The
hourly and 8-hour daily maximum concentrations above 0.05 ppm
at this site may not be associated with long-range transport
of ozone and its precursors from more polluted locations. The
site experienced its highest hourly average concentrations in
April and May; this is when most sites in the United States do
not experience high hourly average average concentrations. This,
coupled with the observation that the diurnal maximum concentrations
occurred between 1400 and 1500 local time, implies that the ozone
may have been generated locally or meteorological processes are
transporting the ozone down from aloft. The sources for creating
the ozone may have been natural (e.g., stratospheric intrustions).

The distribution pattern of the hourly
average concentrations for a heavily urban-influenced monitoring
site at Jefferson County, Kentucky is shown in Figure 2. In contrast
to the rural site in Montana, the urban-influenced site in Kentucky
showed frequent high and low hourly average concentrations. This
site appeared to be influenced by NOx scavenging because of the
occurrence of more frequent low hourly average concentrations.

Lefohn et al. (1998) reported in their
trends analyses, that as ozone levels improved for several urban
sites, both the high and the low hourly average concentrations
moved toward the 0.03-0.06 ppm range, which is within the range
of concentrations that most frequently occurred at the rural
site in Montana. Lefohn et al. (1998) hypothesized that as adequate
control strategies were implemented, the distribution pattern
of hourly average concentrations for inland monitoring sites
would approach the pattern observed at the Montana site and other
remote sites in the western United States.

Coyle, Fowler, and Ashmore (2003) have
reported for an analysis of United Kingdom monitoring data that
peak ozone concentrations declined by about 30% over the past
decade, but that there was evidence of an increase in annual
mean concentrations of about 0.1 ppb per year. Using simulation
modeling, the authors reported that the lower concentrations
increased. Although the authors hypothesize that this increase
may reflect the impact of global increases in background concentrations,
such is not the case. As emissions reductions occur, at many
sites there are increases
in O3 concentrations at the lower levels, which is consistent
with data obtained in both the US and Europe (Lefohn et al.,
2017). This is mostly associated with reduced titration of O3
by reaction with NO in response to reductions in NOx emissions
(see Lefohn et al., 2017). The shifting of the lower concentrations
toward the mid values results in many cases with the median and
annual average concentrations increasing (see Lefohn et al.,
2017). The use of annual average and median O3 concentrations
in global modeling for validation purposes obfuscates the validation
of the models due to the "shifting" effects associated
with the reduction of NOx scavenging. One would assume that emissions
reductions would result in lower O3 concentrations, but such
does not occur when focusing on median and annual average concentrations.

As noted above, Lefohn et al. (1998) reported
decreases in the frequency of the lowest ozone concentrations
and increases in the mid-level concentrations and believed that
the decreases in frequency at the lower concentrations were due
to reduced NOx scavenging. In addition, (as noted here
and here)
no changes have been observed in the 4th highest 8-hour concentration
at some remote and relatively remote clean national park sites
in the United States. Lefohn et al. (2016 in publications list) also noted that some sites
in the western US experienced no trends in surface ozone concentrations
using several exposure indices related to human health and vegetation.

The "piston effect" is real and
it appears that the implementation of politically acceptable
control strategies may never be able to allow many violating
areas to reach attainment on a continuous basis when the
standard is lowered to lower and lower levels. Some nonattainment
areas will continue to oscillate into and out of violation. Nature
has provided us with the "piston effect" and the challenge
is how best to work with it. Our research continues on the "piston
effect".

In assessing the efficacy of air pollution
reduction programs, it is important to determine whether 1) expected
emission reductions have occurred, 2) actual emission changes
resulted in changes in ambient concentrations consistent with
the predictions of air quality models, 3) changes in ambient
concentrations have resulted in reductions in human and ecosystem
exposure to the air pollutants in question, and 4) reductions
have led to improved public health and reduced damage to sensitive
ecosystems. If inconsistent observations are found to occur,
then it is quite possible that there were problems with the assumptions
used in the development of the 8-hour standard. If so, it will
be necessary to assess the physical, biological, and mathematical
methodologies used to develop the ozone standard prior to reaching
the simple conclusion that more emission reductions are needed.
It is important to better understand the physical and biological
processes at work.The answer
may not lie necessarily in more stringent emission controls,
but in assessing whether the form of the 8-hour average standard
could be replaced with a different form that will provide for
the same amount of human health protection and yet be attainable. A.S.L. & Associates is actively performing research
in this area with several key international investigators.