Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible in the
early afternoon near the Four Corners and then around early evening
over the Trans-Pecos of far west Texas.
...Northwest New Mexico region...
Satellite and radar imagery show a forced band of convection over
extreme northwest NM. This activity is associated with a
negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northeast near the Four
Corners area. Visible imagery show some cloud breaks downstream, and
diabatic heating of the surface layer should further destabilize the
atmosphere, though limited low-level moisture will limit MLCAPE to
200-400 J/kg. Given very steep mid-level lapse rates and at least
marginal instability in the presence of strong vertical shear, a few
storms might produce locally strong downdrafts and hail this
afternoon.
...Trans-Pecos region of West Texas...
A few storms might develop over the mountains of northern Mexico
later this afternoon and spread northeast into far west TX by
evening. Low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 40s will likely
mix down into the 30s as low clouds erode, which will significantly
limit instability. Nevertheless a couple of locally strong wind
gusts will be possible with any high based convection as lapse rates
steepen, contributing to inverted-V boundary layers.
..Dial.. 03/21/2019

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
SOUTHWEST CO INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NM...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible from
far southwest Colorado into north-central New Mexico.
...Southwest CO to North-Central NM...
Isolated strong to severe winds have occurred with the line of
storms tracking northeast across southwest CO and northwest NM. KFMN
recorded a 54 kt gust, KCEZ a 36 kt gust and KDRO a 37 kt gust so
far this afternoon. Additional storms may develop southward into
north-central NM into early evening. However, forcing for ascent
will weaken considerably with southward extent as the Four Corners
shortwave trough ejects northeast. As such, the Marginal risk has
been trimmed south of the I-40 corridor.
...Far West Texas...
The Marginal risk has been removed across far western TX. Current
storm entering Pecos County is likely elevated and will continue to
move away from meager instability. Additional development is
unlikely given latest observational and hi-res guidance trends.
..Leitman.. 03/21/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
...Northwest New Mexico region...
Satellite and radar imagery show a forced band of convection over
extreme northwest NM. This activity is associated with a
negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northeast near the Four
Corners area. Visible imagery show some cloud breaks downstream, and
diabatic heating of the surface layer should further destabilize the
atmosphere, though limited low-level moisture will limit MLCAPE to
200-400 J/kg. Given very steep mid-level lapse rates and at least
marginal instability in the presence of strong vertical shear, a few
storms might produce locally strong downdrafts and hail this
afternoon.
...Trans-Pecos region of West Texas...
A few storms might develop over the mountains of northern Mexico
later this afternoon and spread northeast into far west TX by
evening. Low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 40s will likely
mix down into the 30s as low clouds erode, which will significantly
limit instability. Nevertheless a couple of locally strong wind
gusts will be possible with any high based convection as lapse rates
steepen, contributing to inverted-V boundary layers.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High
Plains from Friday afternoon through early evening.
...Southern High Plains Vicinity...
A shortwave trough will shift eastward across the southern Rockies
to the Plains on Friday. Ahead of this feature, modest boundary
layer moisture will be transported north/northwest from the western
Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoints in the low 50s are forecast across
much of west TX into far eastern NM with decreasing values further
north toward southeast CO and southwest KS. Ongoing showers and
cloud cover will initially limit destabilization, but with as the
shortwave shifts eastward, cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg is possible
in a narrow corridor across the Marginal risk area. Strong height
falls during the afternoon and evening will result in a weak lee
trough across eastern CO/NM with a Pacific cold front shifting east
across the southern High Plains during the evening and overnight
hours.
Shear profiles will be strongest/most favorable for
organized/rotating convection further north where backed low level
flow closer to the weak lee low will exist. However, moisture will
be marginal across this area and storms may be higher-based.
Additionally, hi-res guidance suggests line segments are most likely
as the Pacific front quickly shifts eastward and weak instability
limits stronger updraft potential. Convection may be able to remain
cellular a bit longer further south where forcing mechanisms will be
more subtle and instability/moisture modestly better. However, shear
profiles become weaker in the low levels. As a result, storms may
also be fewer with southward extent. Overall, steep midlevel lapse
rates coupled with modest instability/shear will result in at least
a marginal threat for hail and wind, and a tornado can not be ruled
out.
As convection shifts eastward across the OK/TX Panhandles/TX South
Plains toward western OK overnight, severe threat should wane as
convection becomes elevated with time as the boundary layer
stabilizes with loss of heating. While steeper lapse rates do
overspread the Panhandles and western OK overnight, instability is
very weak and even small hail from elevated convection appears
unlikely.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Leitman.. 03/21/2019

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
No changes are needed to the ongoing outlook, with Elevated fire
weather conditions expected for a few hours this afternoon across
parts of southern/eastern GA and northern FL. While locally elevated
fire weather conditions are possible farther westward across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, the spotty/brief nature of
sustained wind speeds near 15 mph coupled with relatively marginal
fuel dryness for large fire starts precludes the expansion of the
Elevated fire weather area. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Elliott.. 03/21/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low will continue to move slowly eastward across the
Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies today. A belt of strong
mid-level west-southwesterly flow will remain over much of southern
AZ/NM through the period. A separate upper trough will move across
the eastern CONUS through the day, with enhanced mid-level westerly
flow overspreading much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will
develop northeastward along/near the Mid-Atlantic Coast. A weak
trailing cold front will move southeastward over parts of the
Carolinas and GA through the period.
...Portions of Southern/Eastern GA and Northern FL...
Westerly surface winds around 15 mph will likely occur in
conjunction with lowered RH values of 25-35% across parts of
southern/eastern GA and northern FL for a few hours this afternoon.
Although fuel dryness appears marginal to support large fire starts,
fine fuels are probably dry enough per latest guidance. Have
therefore introduced an elevated delineation for parts of this
region. The southern extent of the elevated area in northern FL has
been constrained by recent precipitation.
...Portions of the Southwest...
A small area of strong/gusty southerly surface winds will likely
overlap RH values below 20% across parts of southeastern AZ and
southwestern NM this afternoon. However, latest guidance continues
to depict a general lack of fuel receptiveness across this region.
So, an elevated area has not been included.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The latest ensemble/deterministic guidance continues to support the
potential of locally Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow
afternoon across portions of SC/GA into northern FL, as sustained
wind speeds of 10-15 mph overlap a dry air mass (RH values of
25-35%). While the surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken
over the Southeast through the day -- as surface cyclone moves
offshore across the Northeast -- mid-level flow should remain
enhanced over portions of far eastern GA into central/eastern SC,
where high resolution guidance places the greatest potential of
surface wind speeds at or above 15 mph for at least three hours.
While Elevated meteorological conditions are most possible across
this area, fuel receptiveness is a bit more uncertain, especially
considering the potential of at least some wetting rainfall later
this evening/tonight. While an Elevated fire weather area was not
introduced with this update, one may be needed for portions of this
area in a future outlook if trends in guidance suggest stronger wind
speeds and/or if wetting rainfall does not occur.
See previous discussion below for more information.
..Elliott.. 03/21/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low over the Great Basin and Rockies will advance
eastward across the High Plains on Day 2/Friday. A large-scale upper
trough over the eastern CONUS should consolidate into a closed low
over New England by Friday evening. At the surface, a low should
deepen over eastern CO through the period, while a separate low
develops northeastward along the New England Coast.
...Portions of SC/GA and northern FL...
Although the surface pressure gradient should remain relatively weak
across much of SC/GA and northern FL on Day 2/Friday, seasonably
strong low/mid-level northwesterly winds should remain over this
region. At least some increase in west-northwesterly surface winds
appears probable Friday afternoon, although short-term guidance
remains unclear how strong the winds will become. As temperatures
generally warm into the 70s, RH values should become diurnally
mixed/lowered into the 25-35% range for a couple hours. Fuels across
this region appear marginally receptive to large fire starts, but
fine fuels will probably be dry enough. For now, there appears to be
a little too much uncertainty in the placement and strength of the
surface winds to introduce an elevated delineation, but one may
eventually be needed for some portion of SC/GA and/or northern FL.
...Portions of Southern NM...
A 40-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly jet will likely move over
southern/eastern NM through the day. Surface lee troughing should
also develop across the southern High Plains. Both of these features
are expected to contribute to 20-25 mph west-southwesterly surface
winds Friday afternoon across parts of southern NM and far west TX
along/behind a dryline/cold front. RH values are forecast to become
lowered through diurnal mixing into the 15-25% range for at least a
few hours. Elevated meteorological conditions appear likely across
this region, but fuels are not currently expected to be overly
receptive to large fire starts. Accordingly, have not included an
elevated area at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...