Groundhog Derp: A Donald Trump Story.

The president has a tendency to respond to events (often as depicted on Fox News) with whatever nonsense addresses an immediate point of contention, before reaching a dead end and starting over.

At an Untouchables-style White House luncheon on Wednesday, meant to threaten Republican senators into not abandoning Obamacare repeal, Trump told his guests that the best option available to them was still to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act in a single bill. “We are in this room to deliver on our promise,” Trump said. “We have no choice, we have to repeal and replace Obamacare. We can repeal it but the best is repeal and replace and let’s get going. I intend to keep my promise and I know you will, too.”

Over the course of a single week, then, his health care position has evolved from “Repeal and Replace” to “Repeal Now, Replace Later” to “Let Obamacare Fail” back to “Repeal and Replace.”

Compare this to Trump’s evolving position on the scandalous links between his campaign and Russian government actors who subverted the election: Collusion is Fake News --> There were no contacts with Russia --> There were contacts but no collusion --> Who wouldn’t collude?! --> Fake News.

Look forward to a tax-reform version of Groundhog Derp in the coming weeks.

March 19, 2018

Congressional Republicans are failing the Mueller test.

Over the weekend, President Trump unleashed his most direct assault yet against special counsel Robert Mueller. On Saturday, one of Trump’s lawyers, John Dowd, called for an end to the Mueller probe—breaking with earlier statements, in which Trump’s legal team had affirmed their full cooperation with Mueller. “I pray that Acting Attorney General Rosenstein will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia Collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt Dossier,” Dowd said.

And on Sunday morning, aided by the firing of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, Trump attacked the Mueller probe.

The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. It was based on fraudulent activities and a Fake Dossier paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC, and improperly used in FISA COURT for surveillance of my campaign. WITCH HUNT!

Spent very little time with Andrew McCabe, but he never took notes when he was with me. I don’t believe he made memos except to help his own agenda, probably at a later date. Same with lying James Comey. Can we call them Fake Memos?

Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans? Another Dem recently added...does anyone think this is fair? And yet, there is NO COLLUSION!

In these tweets, Trump is doing three things. First, he’s using McCabe’s firing to discredit both McCabe and former FBI Director James Comey, whose firing is presumably being looked into by Mueller—obstruction of justice is one of the most likely charges Trump could face. Second, he’s tying McCabe and Comey—dismissed as partisan and corrupt—to the Mueller probe, whose findings he is prematurely trying to discredit.

But the third thing is the most important. Trump is launching a trial balloon to congressional Republicans to see what he can get away with. Trump’s previous moves against the Russia investigation have been met with an insistence from a variety of Republicans on the Hill that any move against Mueller would be an enormously costly one for the president. But thus far, Republicans—who have increasingly made their peace with Trump since the passage of the $1.5 trillion tax bill in December—have largely been silent, suggesting that they might rally to the president if he decides to move against the special counsel.

March 16, 2018

Can drug dealers really be executed?

The White House’s plan for fighting the opioid epidemic will propose giving the death penalty to “some drug dealers,” Politicoreported Thursday. President Donald Trump is an enthusiastic proponent of the idea, and of capital punishment in general. A survey of key House Republicans by the Weekly Standard found that many of them would be receptive to Trump’s proposal, at least in theory.

It’s hard to assess whether Trump’s plan is constitutional without knowing the precise legislative text. In the 2008 caseKennedy v. Louisiana, the Supreme Court effectively abolished capital punishment for crimes that don’t result in the victim’s death. However, the justices explicitly said the ruling didn’t address whether the death penalty for “crimes against the state,” which they defined as “treason, espionage, terrorism, and drug kingpin activity,” are permissible. Depending on the proposal’s scope, that last category could provide federal prosecutors with legal cover.

Trump’s proposal would be constrained by the same trends. The lengthy appeals process alone guarantees that no defendants sentenced under it would be executed during his term, or probably even under his successor. Instead, its greatest impact would be to show the system for what it is: a creaky, glacial enterprise that imposes tremendous costs, moral and otherwise, on American society and delivers virtually nothing in return.

FEMA is not preparing for “climate change.”

Last year was among the most expensive years in the history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief program, due to record-breaking hurricanes and wildfires that scientists say were made worse by climate change. But the agency has removed that very term from its strategic plan for the next four years.

It’s long been the unspoken policy of the Trump administration to erase references to climate change from government documents. Vox reported in December that the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Interior, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Department of Transportation “have all had websites or press releases scrubbed of references to humanity’s role in rising average temperatures.” Now, it appears, this policy applies to the agency in charge of protecting Americans from climate disasters.

FEMA insists it is still preparing for such disasters, and implies that the causes don’t matter. “It is evident that this strategic plan fully incorporates future risks from all hazards regardless of cause,” FEMA Public Affairs Director William Booher said in an email. “Building upon the foundation established by FEMA’s previous two Strategic Plans, this plan commits the agency, and the nation, to taking proactive steps to increasing pre-disaster investments in preparedness and mitigation.”

But preparedness and mitigation are not enough to keep Americans safe as the atmosphere and ocean gradually warm. If government agencies don’t tackle the cause—carbon emissions from fossil fuels—the impacts, in many places, will become too extreme to adapt to. FEMA will bleed money preparing for, and responding to, more hurricanes like Harvey and Maria. And much of the blame will lie with conservatives who are triggered by two little, truthful words.

Trump is systematically removing the guardrails in his cabinet.

Over the past ten days, President Trump’s economic adviser, Gary Cohn, has resigned; his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, was fired over Twitter; and his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster, is expected to be moved out of the White House and into a four-star military role. McMaster—whose ouster has been rumored for months—would be gone already, except the White House is concerned about the optics of losing another cabinet member.

The reason for the delay in McMaster’s firing? Trumpworld wants him to find a soft landing — like a four star promotion — to prove that not everyone who serves in his White House suffers severe reputational damage. https://t.co/zSSjMfylzQpic.twitter.com/NbLj9d8s7a

Cohn has been replaced by Larry Kudlow, a cable news pundit; Tillerson by Mike Pompeo, the hawkish CIA director. The leading candidates to replace McMaster are John Bolton, who has publicly pushed the United States to make a preemptive strike against North Korea, and Fox & Friends co-host Pete Hegseth.

These changes suggest a president who is convinced that he has grown into the job and, more troublingly, has come to resent the numerous guardrails that were erected around him to protect the country (and the world) from his erratic instincts. Trump is remaking his cabinet—filling it with hawks and cable news pundits—into his own image. The triumvirate of “adults in the room”—Tillerson, McMaster, and Secretary of Defense James Mattis—has been neutralized. Trump may finally have the cabinet that he wants: One that won’t stand in his way.

Stormy Daniels says she’s been threatened with physical violence.

And at the end of the interview, Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinskiasked—almost off-the-cuff—what ended up being a very revealing question about Daniels: “Was she threatened in any way?”

“Yes,” Avenatti replied.

“Was she threatened physical harm?” Brzezinski followed up.

“Yes,” the lawyer replied.

“Oh, wow,” co-host Joe Scarborough reacted, while MSNBC’s John Heilemann asked her to continue the questioning.

Daniels is suing Trump to free herself from a non-disclosure agreement that she says he never signed, and 60 Minutes is slated to run a tell-all interview with Daniels on March 25. Her attorney recently said that six other women have come to him with stories of affairs with Donald Trump. Avenatti’s claims aren’t outlandish: Trump’s attorney, Michael Cohen, has a history of threatening Trump’s enemies, as NBC News’s Brandy Zadrozny reported on Twitter:

March 15, 2018

Why Mueller is subpoenaing the Trump Organization (because of course he is).

The New York Timesreported on Thursday that the special counsel in the Russia investigation is seeking records from President Donald Trump’s company. While the subpoena’s scope “was not clear,” the requested documents include “some related to Russia.” I would hope so.

It’s certainly newsworthy that Mueller is taking this step. But it tells us little about the investigation, its progress, or its potential outcome. The first rule of Mueller’s inquiry is that we know less than we think we know about it. His apparently airtight operation—an impressive feat in leaky Washington—is keeping the president, the press, and the American people largely in the dark for now.

Not all of the Russia investigation’s roads run through Trump’s business empire, but many do. Questions remain on the breadth and depth of the president’s business relationships with Russian oligarchs and his three-decade-long interest in Russian real-estate projects. Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee, for example, claimed that the Trump Organization was “actively negotiating” with a Russian bank under U.S. sanctions for a potential business venture there. Trump excommunicated Steve Bannon from his inner circle after the former White House chief strategist raised the specter of money-laundering charges to journalist Michael Wolff.

A potential hazard in this information-starved atmosphere is reading too much into certain events and not paying enough attention to others—especially where Mueller is concerned. Here’s a good rule of thumb whenever there’s a new report about the special counsel’s latest move: Based on what we already know about the investigation, would it be more surprising if Mueller wasn’t doing it?

What do Susan B. Anthony’s List and Nancy Pelosi have in common?

Dan Lipinski, it turns out. The anti-choice Democrat is running for re-election in Illinois’ 3rd District; he faces a primary challenge from a pro-choice woman, Marie Newman. Pelosi endorsed Lipinksi over Newman, and so has Susan B. Anthony’s List, an anti-choice group. McClatchy reports:

SBA List has dispatched 70 canvassers to the Illinois 3rd Congressional District and made a “six-figure investment” in digital ads and a mail campaign ahead of the Tuesday primary, according to an official with the group. Lipinski faces a fierce challenge from Marie Newman, a progressive advocate who has made the incumbent’s opposition to abortion rights central to her campaign.

Lipinski also voted against the Affordable Care Act and opposes marriage equality. Pelosi, who has previously decried “purity tests” applied to Democratic candidates, endorsed Lipinski on March 1. That pits her against EMILY’s List, the Human Rights Campaign, NARAL, SEIU and other members of her own party.

Polling shows Newman in a dead heat with Lipinski—meaning that Pelosi passed up a chance to support a viable, pro-choice candidate over an anti-gay, anti-choice incumbent in trouble.

Did Scott Pruitt start the rumor that Scott Pruitt might become attorney general?

After firing his secretary of state via Twitter this week, President Donald Trump is reportedly interested in shaking up his Cabinet even further. Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman reported on Wednesday that Trump is considering firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions and replacing him EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt.

Trump’s frustration with Sessions isn’t a new development, nor is the rumor that Pruitt could be his replacement. In January, Politicoreported that Pruitt “told friends and associates that he’s interested in becoming attorney general,” a report the EPA swiftly denied. For nearly a year, speculation has swirled that Pruitt has political ambitions beyond the EPA.

What’s new is the belief that Pruitt himself started the rumor about replacing Sessions. On Thursday, The Atlantic’s Elaina Plott tweeted that she heard as much from “EPA sources.” Axios’ Jonathan Swan followed up, saying the “conventional wisdom” at the White House is that Pruitt is spreading the rumor about himself.

This rumor has been circulating for months and EPA sources believe it was started by Pruitt himself. https://t.co/Wie0EZdKRk

Nothing can convince Donald Trump that the U.S. doesn’t run a trade deficit with Canada.

At a fundraising speech in Missouri on Wednesday night, Trump told donors the bizarre story of his recent meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, during which Trump claimed the U.S. had a trade deficit with Canada even though he wasn’t sure if it did. He then found out that it didn’t, but still tried to claim that it did.

“Trudeau came to see me. He’s a good guy, Justin. He said, ‘No, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none. Donald, please,’ ” Trump said. “Nice guy, good-looking guy, comes in — ‘Donald, we have no trade deficit.’ He’s very proud because everybody else, you know, we’re getting killed.

“ ... So, he’s proud. I said, ‘Wrong, Justin, you do.’ I didn’t even know. ... I had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’ You know why? Because we’re so stupid. … And I thought they were smart. I said, ‘You’re wrong, Justin.’ He said, ‘Nope, we have no trade deficit.’ I said, ‘Well, in that case, I feel differently,’ I said, ‘but I don’t believe it.’ I sent one of our guys out, his guy, my guy, they went out, I said, ‘Check, because I can’t believe it.’

‘Well, sir, you’re actually right. We have no deficit, but that doesn’t include energy and timber. … And when you do, we lose $17 billion a year.’ It’s incredible.”

The U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada—in 2016, the surplus stood at $12.5 billion. And yet Trump tweeted this in response to the Post’s story:

We do have a Trade Deficit with Canada, as we do with almost all countries (some of them massive). P.M. Justin Trudeau of Canada, a very good guy, doesn’t like saying that Canada has a Surplus vs. the U.S.(negotiating), but they do...they almost all do...and that’s how I know!

Philippe Reines has a curious theory for how Democrats can win in 2020.

Reines, one of Hillary Clinton’s longest-serving advisers (he played Trump in debate prep), took a break from bickering with Seb Gorka on cable television to offer advice for the Democrats’ 2020 nominee. While it isn’t framed as being backward-looking, Reines’s analysis says more about how he views the 2016 election than where he thinks the party should go.

Reines swats away the usual criticisms of Clinton’s campaign, dismissing its tactical (not campaigning in Wisconsin) and personal (all that Clinton baggage) issues as being immaterial because similar criticisms were thrown at Al Gore and John Kerry.

Reines sees the campaign’s flaws differently. First, there’s his biggest (and best) point, which is that overconfidence helped sink Clinton: Because she thought she was going to win, she didn’t feel like it was necessary to get in the mud with Trump. But then Reines runs into some trouble. He implores the Democrats’ 2020 nominee to punch back every time and to, like Trump, treat the media as a hostile force. Bizarrely, Reines argues that the next Democratic nominee should take money from everyone possible—tobacco companies and Harvey Weinstein are mentioned—without apology.

There’s a sense here that Reines was frustrated with Clinton’s attempt to walk a line between apologizing for taking money from Wall Street and not apologizing for taking money from Wall Street. But it’s not clear how it helps Democrats to run a candidate who tries to go toe-to-toe with Trump when it comes to corruption.

What it does suggest is Reines’s idea of the kind of candidate who can win in 2020: A slightly meaner Hillary Clinton who proudly takes even more money from special interests.