Cutting edge

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From what little information can be gleaned in this report, it would appear that Mr. Kerry is investing great hopes in the amount of economic leverage that the US can bring to the table. This is certainly a positive move and one capable of achieving much that is needed to stabilise the situation as it stands – and has so stood for far too many years.

Of course there are some caveats and, in these, monetary considerations do not feature.

What guarantee can there be that, whatever the deal struck, matters will not soon revert back to their former status, only this time with everyone rich enough to purchase weapons that are more numerous, more powerful and more accurate?

What monitoring arrangements will exist to judge how things fare with both sides? Will there be adequate suppression of overt – and covert -military and militant activity?

What balance of power is deemed appropriate or can disarmament of some kind be a part of the plan?

What level of trust can be expected in enemies who have fought each other for generations?

In other words, does Mr. Kerry have a fully functional crystal ball in his possession, one capable of seeing some decades into the future? Or has he access to a time machine of equal range and proficiency?

The odds are that he does not. How then can future developments here be managed with some certainty of outcome? What benefits must accrue if only good intentions are to become the principal guiding star with which to chart the region’s future?