TREASURIES-U.S. curve flattens as 2-year yields hit 9-year high

Reuters Staff

5 Min Read

(New throughout, updates prices and market activity, adds
comment and details on funding bill)
* Five-year, 30-year spread hits lowest point in over a
decade
* Two-year yields highest since 2008
By Kate Duguid
NEW YORK, Jan 17 - The U.S. yield curve flattened to a
decade-low spread between 5-year and 30-year yields and two-year
Treasury yields hit a nine-year high on Wednesday on
expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten
monetary policy this year.
At 43.7 basis points, the spread between 5-year and 30-year
yields hit its lowest level since August 2007.
This is "a classic tale of two markets. The front end of the
curve is responding to the Fed’s insistence on continuing to
hike rates while the longer end of the curve is responding to a
more benign global inflation environment," said Ian Lyngen, head
of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
Two-year yields, which are the maturity most
sensitive to Fed interest rate hikes, have been rising as robust
economic data has affirmed the FOMC's hawkish sentiment. Last
Friday's stronger-than-expected core CPI report increased the
odds of a March rate hike, with the rate futures market pricing
in a more than 70 percent chance, according to the CME's
FedWatch.
As the continuing resolution, or stopgap funding bill, is
due to expire Friday, investors will be watching Congress to see
if it can put together a funding bill in time to avoid a U.S.
government shutdown.
The White House said on Wednesday it supports a short-term
bill to fund the government and prevent a shutdown, even though
its first preference would have been for a long-term deal.
But it remains unclear whether Congress will back such a
bill. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said he would not vote
for a bill from his own party, according to Politico. Democratic
Senator Robert Menendez said the White House is making
unacceptable demands on immigration measures.
Thus far, the market has not moved on news of the tense
negotiations. "It has typically been an eleventh hour
decision...which I think the market always holds out for" said
Ellis Phifer, market strategist at Raymond James in Memphis.
The U.S. economy and inflation expanded at a
modest-to-moderate pace in the final months of 2017, while wages
continued to push higher, the Fed reported in its Beige Book
report on Wednesday.
Later Wednesday, three Fed officials will speak: Cleveland
Fed President Loretta Mester, Chicago Fed President Charles
Evans and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan.
At 2:08 p.m.(1908 GMT), 10-year Treasury yields
were 2.561 percent, above Tuesday's close at 2.544 percent.
Two-year yields were 2.039 percent, after hitting
2.047 percent earlier in the day, its highest since September
2008.
January 17 Wednesday 2:11PM New York / 1911 GMT
Price
US T BONDS MAR8 150-21/32 -0-5/32
10YR TNotes MAR8 122-196/256 -0-56/25
6
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 1.42 1.4449 0.000
Six-month bills 1.595 1.6303 -0.003
Two-year note 99-176/256 2.039 0.021
Three-year note 99-142/256 2.1545 0.027
Five-year note 98-204/256 2.384 0.029
Seven-year note 98-100/256 2.5036 0.028
10-year note 97-76/256 2.5628 0.019
30-year bond 98-92/256 2.8317 -0.003
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 19.50 -0.50
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 18.25 -0.50
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 5.00 -0.75
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 0.50 0.00
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -17.25 0.75
spread
(Reporting by Kate Duguid; Editing by Phil Berlowitz and David
Gregorio)