Sunday, April 21, 2013

Mock Draft 1st Round 2.0: Best Case Scenario V.S. Probable Scenario

Written By Sklar Darel+Rishab JainWhen the First Round of the NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday night, each team has several needs and desired players to fill those needs. Whether those desired players are on the board when the teams select is never a certainty, but after reviewing many mock drafts and team needs, We've decided to take each teams probable selection and compare it with the best case selection. Obviously the best case will trump the probable selection, but how dramatically different a teams season outlook can be based on these picks is astounding. With that being said, lets begin.*Note: Since Seattle, Washington, and Tampa Bay have no first rounders, they won't be included in this segment.
Firstly, here is my mock draft. This is done based on team need and the likelyhood of players being selected.

Quick Note: J.J. Watt outsacked the entire Jags defense last year. Jordan is an explosive pass rusher who can turn into a franchise cornerstone.

Why it's a best case scenario: Jordan is an athletic specimine, who can get to the quarterback at will. The Jags need talent across the board, and Jordan is one of the bestplayers in the draft.
3. Oakland Raiders:
Probable: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida
Best Case: Shariff Floyd, DT, FloridaQuick Note: Floyd dominated in the combine, and fills a position of need for the Raiders. He has risen to the top of the defensive tackle rankings.

Why it's best case scenario: The Raiders need a DT to spearhead their defense. Floyd is the best DT in the draft after a dominant combine, and could be the best defensive player in Oakland for a while.

4. Philadelphia Eagles:
Probable: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Best Case: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&MQuick Note: The departure of Nnamdi Asomough has left a hole at corner. The Eagles lose out on Dion Jordan, but Milliner still has shutdown potential.

Why it's best case scenario: The Eagles have big needs at LT and CB. While Milliner is the draft's best CB, Joeckel is the draft's best player. If Eric Fisher goes at 1, the Eagles would be thrilled to get Joeckel.

Why it's best case scenario: If Fisher somehow falls to 7, the Cardinals would get a franchise left tackle, something they desperately need. Johnson has a risky side, and a lower ceiling than Fisher and Joeckel, which is why Fisher would be fantastic for the Cards here.

Quick Note: Kevin Kolb isn't the guy at quarterback. The Bills have some serious needs other than QB, but they must address them later in the draft. Nassib has great potential and could be the franchise quarterback Buffalo has been looking for.

Why it's best case scenario: Smith is the better quarterback. He has the stronger arm and more mobility. The Bills would like Nassib because of the Doug Marrone connection, but Smith has a ton of upside in comparison.

9. New York Jets:Probable: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
Best Case: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Quick Note: The Jets could go with Ansah, but they really like Mingo. They also need a pass rushing linebacker off the edge, and Mingo's technique is far better than Ansah's.

Why it's best case scenario: The trade of Darrelle Revis opens up an obvious need for cornerback outside of Antonio Cromartie. Dee Milliner also has shutdown potential, and would be a great selection for the Jets.

Quick Note: The Titans need a DT, and Lotulelei is very close to being the best one. His heart condition keeps him from the top 5, but his upside is as high as anyone's.

Why it's best case scenario: The Titans biggest need is at corner, and Milliner is the only one worthy of a top ten selection. If the Eagles, Lions, Browns, and Jets somehow pass on the Titans, then the Titans would be ecstatic.

11. San Diego Chargers:
Probable: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
Best Case: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Quick Note: The Chargers wanted Lane Johnson, but settle for the best blocking guard in the draft. Warmack will help in the run game as well as keep Phillip Rivers upright and protected.

Why it's best case scenario: Joeckel and Fisher are gone at this point, and Phillip Rivers hasn't had a stable offensive line in a long time. Johnson would be a perfect fit in San Diego, but Arizona looms large at 7 overall with a similar need.

Quick Note: The Phins lost Sean Smith and Vontae Davis over the last few years, and need a new corner. Rhodes has the size to run with the leagues tallest wideouts right away.

Why it's best case scenario: I don't know why the Chargers would pass on Johnson, but if they do the Dolphins would end his slide. The departure of Jake Long opens up a need to protect Ryan Tannehill's blind side, something Johnson would do a great job of.

Quick Note: The Jets need a dangerous playmaker on offense. No one is more dangerous than Tavon Austin, whose speed is second to none in the draft.

Why it's best case scenario: The Jets love Mingo, and if they get Milliner at 9 and Mingo is on the board at 13, they'd be the happiest team in the league. Mingo is a polished pass rusher that would fit in perfectly with Rex Ryan's system.

Quick Note: The Saints need a pass rusher off the edge. Ansah is incredibly raw but immensely talented and gifted offensively. It's a surprise Ansah falls this far.

Why it's best case scenario: The Saints get one of the best prospects in the draft. Ansah's athleticism for his position is second to none. While this would be a huge drop for Ansah, he'd fit in well in New Orleans.

Quick Note: The Rams have 2 picks and 2 major needs: Safety and Wide receiver. Vaccarro is the draft's best safety, and his elite ball skills could make him a standout in St. Louis.

Why it's best case scenario: Austin is the best wide receiver in the draft. While he'll most likely be off the board at 16, the Rams need a number 1 guy and Austin has the talent to be just that.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers:
Probable: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Best Case: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
Quick Note: The Steelers must replace James Harrison's production off the end. Jones has had some injury concerns and had a weak pro day, but the potential for greatness is present.

Why it's best case scenario: Mingo could really fall in this draft due to the surplus of pass rushers. However Jarvis Jones injury problems pose a more apparent risk than Mingo has.

Quick Note: The Cowboys offensive line needs retooling. Cooper has top ten potential, and he is a fantastic run blocker.

Why it's best case scenario: The Cowboys need a safety, and Vaccaro is the draft's best. While he has many potential suitors in the top 16, he could potentially fall to the Cowboys, where he would stand out in the NFC East.

19. New York Giants:Probable: Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
Best Case: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Quick Note: Arthur Brown's speed makes him an elite NFL prospect. Mathias Kiwanuka's move to DE opens up a hole at outside linebacker, a hole Brown can fill for quite a while.

Why it's best case scenario: Rhodes is the best corner who could be available this late (Milliner won't drop out of the top 10), and the Giants secondary was absymal last year. The addition of Aaron Ross helps, but Rhodes could start from day 1.

Quick Note: The successor to Brian Urlacher in Chicago has to be addressed in the first few rounds. Ogeltree has the skills to be the guy in the midde of the Bears D.

Why it's best case scenario: Brown can also play inside linebacker, and his competitive fire and speed would make him perfect for Chigago. His lack of size only makes him play harder, and he would be the focal point of the Bears D for years to come.

Quick Note: Cincinatti needs a right tackle, especially with the departed Andre Smith. Fluker dominated at Alabama and could be a superb right tackle in the NFL.

Why it's best case scenario: The Bengals need safety help, and Vaccaro is the class of the draft at safety. He has elite coverage and ball skills for a safety, and would make the Bengals defense even more formidable.

Quick Note: Patterson fills an immediate need at wide receiver. Tavon Austin is certainly off the board at this point (maybe even to the Rams at 16) and Patterson is the next best wideout.

Why it's best case scenario: I have Vaccarro going at 16 to the Rams, but they would rather take Tavon Austin and hope Vaccarro drops to 22. He most likely won't, but the potential pairing of Austin and Vaccaro in the first round is superb.

Quick Note: The Vikings need an inside linebacker, and despite the contraversey surrounding Te'o, he's a first round talent. The Vikings get an emotional leader and a great football player.

Why it's best case scenario: Ogeltree has speed that Te'o simply doesn't have. The possibility of Ogeltree here is very realistic, and he has more pro potential than Te'o.

24. Indianapolis Colts:
Probable: Bjoen Werner, DE, Florida State
Best Case: Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC
Quick Note: Dwight Freeney's production off the edge will be missed. The German born Bjoen Werner can make up for it and more after a stellar year in the ACC for the Seminoles.

Why it's best case scenario: Cooper is a potentialt top ten pick. The Colts need an offensive guard. The only 2 first round talents at guard are Warmack and Cooper, and Cooper has the best chance of dropping.

Quick Note: The Vikings need to replace Antoine Winfield. Trufant stood out at the combine and has the cover skills to be a number 1 corner in Minnesota.

Why it's best case scenario : Rhodes is great at defending the taller wideouts. He could be a number 1 corner in Minnesota. However, their are several teams such as the Jets, Giants, and Dolphins that need cornerbacks, and Rhodes would be great in purple and gold.

26. Green Bay Packers:Probable: Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Best Case: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Quick Note: The Packers offensive line needs a renovation, and Watson can help. He has tremendous athleticism, which has had him rising in many draft boards.

Why it's best case scenario: Fluker is a stud right tackle who would dominate in the NFL. He could drop because of Cincinatti's more pressing need at safety, but don't be surpised if Fluker is playing at Lambeau next year.

Quick Note: The Texans need a number 2 wide receiver next to Andre Johnson. Allen has number 1 potential, and will make an immediate contribution to the Texan's offense.

Why it's best case scenario: Patterson is better than Allen, and doesn't have the drug rumors circulating like Allen. Allen is still a great pick, but the Texans would feel better if they snagged Patterson.

Quick Note: Hayden's story is remarkable: His chest was cracked open at one point, and now he's a first round talent. He would be even higher if he wasn't a walking medical miracle.

Why it's best case scenario: Trufant is a safer a pick than Hayden, because one hit to the chest could be career ending. Trufant, paired with Aqib Talib, could make up a solid starting cornerback tandem.

Quick Note: The heir to Ray Lewis must be selected in the first few rounds. Minter is a tackling machine who can fill in and replace Lewis in the Baltimore D.

Why it's best case scenario: While John Harbaugh clearly wasn't impressed with Te'o's combine, his emotional intangibles and ability to lead help him exemplify Ray Lewis. He would fit in great in Baltimore.