Thursday, August 28, 2008

Who's Laughing Now?

Been away for 36 hours, and catching up on some of the rubbish that the Western Mail is publishing - at least that's what David Cornock of the BBC thinks of Martin Shipton's article suggesting that Peter Hain might fancy a move to the National Assembly. When I postulated this very idea a few full moons ago, David and others mocked me unmercifully. I remember hearing a clip of Bob Monkhouse saying something like "When I said that I wanted to be a comedian when I grow up, they all laughed. Well, no-ones laughing now". At least Peter seems to believe in devolution, which is more than the last First Minister that the Labour Party parachuted in nine years ago.

Of course its not that easy for Peter to move to the Assembly in time to throw his hat into the Labour leadership race, which we're expecting next summer. Only way I can see how that can happen is if Mrs Gwenda Thomas takes a liking to the idea of Baroness Gwenda Thomas. Must admit that the ermine would suit Gwenda rather well. But I just can't see it - and neither can she..

I don't think that any of the runners in the Labour leadership stakes that are limbering up in the Senedd paddock at present actually deserve it. We're not that far from the starting pistol, and none of them are setting out a stall worth tying an emaciated donkey to. As an aside to this, I do think that Eluned Morgan will take over Rhodri's Assembly seat in Cardiff West in 2011 though. It must be absolute purgatory to serve more than two terms in Brussels.

There is no prospect of this happening at all Glyn. Apart from the practicalities of needing to be an AM, Peter Hain couldn't even get support from Welsh members in the Deputy Leadership contest and he is far to unpopular in Welsh Labour to contemplate running for leader. As for Eluned she burned alot of bridges with the rank and file in supporting the likes of Leighton and Chris in wanting to move Welsh Labour in a Blairite direction following the Assembly Elections. Plus have you considered the salary cut in shifting from MEP to AM?

anon 1 - I'm not saying its likely, but I still think its a good possibility. Of course Peter Hain will be hoping for a recall from Gordon Brown (or his successor). But if and when he accepts that its not going to happen, he will inevitably re-assess his career. I would have thought a switch to the National Assembly might prove to be attractive to Labour, who will see the war twixt MPs and AMs as deeply damaging to Labour in Wales.

socialistcymru - Its not a question of being popular - more a question of being less unpopular. You are right about the practicalities. For Peter Hain to switch in time would require the arrival of Baroness Gwenda Thomas. The only way that Eluned could come into the frame would be for a General Election to be held next June, which might persuade Rhodri Morgan to soldier on to 2011. I know there's a big salary cut involved in moving from Brussels to Cardiff - but there does come a time for everyone.

Of course, unlike the Commons, even if Gwenda were to be ennobled she wouldn't have to leave the Assembly - viz. Lord Elis-Thomas, Lord Steele in Scotland, Lord Allerdice in NI. And don't MEPs get the same salary as MPs (though without all the Brussels/ Strasbourg allowances)?