tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87613531077390134042018-03-05T10:01:43.282-08:00China Greenspace 中国绿区China's transformation is economic, social, political- and ecological. This blog explores the intersection of these domains. China Greenspace talks about environmental policy, politics, market trends, social phenomena- and sometimes, what its author had for lunch. But he promises, only if it was really something to write home (or to the world) about. Comment, question, and criticize.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-25946022544025764212009-08-17T19:45:00.000-07:002009-08-17T20:09:06.656-07:00China's emissions to peak in 2030! (?)<em><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span> </em>woke up today to a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP434277">Reuters report </a>that some of China's leading climate experts urge the adoption of policies to make the county's carbon dioxide emissions growth to slow by 2020, and to peak by 2030. The suggestion, made in a report signed by many heavy-weight researchers and policy analysts, urges the government to consider a variety of policies, including a carbon tax and even a domestic cap and trade system, to effectively cap emissions by 2030. Perhaps most notably, the report stresses the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions within the next few decades in order to avoid catastrophic ecological damage. <br /><br />The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">study's</span> authors were careful to note that their analysis is merely a recommendation, and has not been endorsed by policymakers. Yet China's government has signaled in recent weeks that their hard-line position on climate may be softening (<a href="http://greenleapforward.com/2009/08/06/china%e2%80%99s-softens-climate-rhetoric%e2%80%94commits-to-emissions-peak-again-shows-flexibility-on-western-reductions/">see Green Leap Forward</a>). Even if the study really is just a "research exercise," as its authors claim, it's one that marks a sea change in public thinking among the country's elite. Moreover, it's promising that the report stresses the ecological imperatives behind climate change- and the threat to China's development objectives- rather than the tired rhetoric of who's to blame for global aggregate emissions. <br /><br />But what might it mean in practice? Even if China were to come out with a commitment to peak emissions by 2030, it doesn't mean we're out of the climate woods yet. China's much-touted energy efficiency targets and renewable energy scale-ups have been characterized by statistical fudging and fuzzy math (see, once again, <a href="http://greenleapforward.com/2009/08/11/deconstructing-chinas-energy-intensity-a-lesson-in-fuzzy-math/">Green Leap Forward</a>). The country desperately needs a robust system for measuring and verifying emissions reductions. In particular, China lacks experience with regulatory frameworks for emissions reduction, as well as both the software and know-how to model emissions reductions- both clear imperatives for international cooperation. <br /><br />And, of course, the study could simply be a trial balloon that gets shot down by China's higher-ups. But when you're dealing with things as foreboding as climate change, you've got to take comfort where you can, and China's "2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report" at least represents an enlightened and sober view of what China must do to prevent <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">catastrophic</span> atmospheric disruption.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-54181680975357280082009-08-05T00:52:00.000-07:002009-08-05T01:02:42.328-07:00Progress towards CophenhagenTwo quick but important notes on progress towards the negotiations at Copenhagen. First, there's been increased talk of the climate issue becoming the organizing principle of US-China relations (see <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/july/126525.htm">US Department of State briefing on the recent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">SED</span></a>). While this growing importance has yet to produce substantive results, it's an astounding shift from US-China relations during most of the Bush years (asterisk: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">former Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson</span> gets credit for including some climate issues under the previous iteration of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">SED</span>), when energy and environment were scarcely mentioned. In any case, it's good news, since deployment of clean technology in China will be a decades-long task that will have to take place in the context of a robust US-China relationship. <br /><br />Second, South Korea became the first developing country to commit to greenhouse gas emissions caps by 2020, with significant implications for the Copenhagen agreement. I'll leave most commentary to <a href="http://greenleapforward.com/2009/08/04/south-korea-a-%E2%80%98developing%E2%80%99-country-embraces-2020-emissions-cap-with-important-implications-for-a-global-deal-in-copenhagen/">Green Leap Forward</a>, but suffice it to say South Korea's actions provide the first clear blueprint for how a developing country can formulate a sustainable, low-carbon development path. If it works, it will save the world. One can only hope that New Delhi and Beijing- and Pretoria, Brasilia, and Hanoi- are watching.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-65128719200751840632009-07-26T00:27:00.000-07:002009-07-26T00:51:32.030-07:00Progress, but not enough<span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span> </span>has been out of action for a while. A combination of travel and the continuing difficulties of lying behind the Great Firewall (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Blogspot</span>.com domains can only be accessed via proxy servers on the Chinese mainland) have contributed to this. However, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">CGS</span> </span>will maintain postings when possible. <br /><br />In the past few weeks, of course, US Energy Secretary Steven <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Chu</span> visited China, making a very favorable impression and launching important initiatives such as a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/world/asia/17beijing.html">Memorandum of Understanding on building energy efficiency</a> and pledging $15 million for a joint US-China clean energy research center. Despite the progress, the prospects for significant Chinese concessions at Copenhagen look little better. <br /><br />In fact, China has gone on something of a <a href="http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=12794:climate-change-china-reluctance-to-curb-emissions&amp;catid=71:world-news&amp;Itemid=201">public relations blitz</a> recently, highlighting its efforts to improve energy efficiency. The Shanghai Daily newspaper recently featured an article entitled "<a href="http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=408284&amp;type=Opinion&amp;page=2">China fights climate change in its own way</a>," which thoughtfully highlighted the Chinese <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Cabinet's</span> decision to reduce energy use by encouraging its members to forgo wearing suits inside its meeting halls. China's Vice Premier, Li <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Keqiang</span>, has also been making the rounds <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/21/content_11747304.htm">stumping</a> China's energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. China Daily even featured an <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/24/content_11763357.htm">editorial</a> that questioned the current focus on climate change in favor of population control- not an unreasonable argument, but the implication was that China is doing its part for the world's environment simply by limiting its population increase.<br /><br />Of course, China has made impressive commitments to limiting the increase in its greenhouse gas emissions. Officials have said recently, for example, that China is on track to produce 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. But all of this is only a start. Despite the impressive numbers, there's a great deal of doubt if such policies will meaningfully reduce China's emissions. See, for example, this report indicating that China's much-touted wind farms have <a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/20/china-wind-power-business-energy-china.html">significantly lower capacity</a> than intended, reducing the amount of electricity they can actually produce. <br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">CGS</span> </span>has often observed the sea change in China's efforts to control its emissions over the past three or so years. There's been tremendous progress, for which China can rightly claim recognitions. But, as in the United States, where the landmark ACES legislation may be further eroded by special interests, it's doubtful whether China's actions will be enough to prevent dangerous climate change impacts. Let's hope there's something big coming in Copenhagen.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-7490652843662431352009-06-19T00:16:00.001-07:002009-06-19T00:39:36.663-07:00Report from "China and Global Climate Change" Conference at Lingnan University, Hong Kong<span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span> </span>has been in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Hong</span> Kong this week as a participant in the "China and Global Climate Change" conference at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Lingnan</span> University. The conference has been remarkable in the range of perspectives represented, including everything from psychology to <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">meteorology</span> to social theorists. As one of the few academic gatherings with a specific focus on China and climate change, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">CGS</span> </span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">strongly</span> recommends checking out the <a href="http://www.ln.edu.hk/caps/conference.php">conference website</a> for access to the proceedings. <br /><br />A few things of particular note:<br /><br />First, many of those focusing on China's participation in global climate negotiations were pessimistic, primarily because there is a great deal of scepticism that the goals of fairness (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">i.e.</span>, accounting for the West's historic emissions) can be reconciled with the ecological imperative of preventing severe climate change. One political theorist (papers are currently not for attribution- sorry!) suggested that this situation should compel Western countries to take a hard line with China and other developing nations, essentially jettisoning the fairness consideration in favor of taking <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">punitive</span> measures, such as carbon <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">tariffs</span>, on imports from countries which refuse to participate in global efforts to reduce emissions. <br /><br />Second, assessments of localized climate impacts appear to grow only more complex. One, particularly thorough study of climate change impacts on food security suggested that when all factors are considered, including <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">socio</span>-economic and water availability changes, food production is likely to remain largely unchanged under most <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">IPCC</span> climate scenarios. However, local impacts will be likely to vary tremendously, and expensive adaptation will likely be required to mitigate negative climate impacts on agriculture. <br /><br />Third, more attention needs to be paid to changing consumption patterns in China, especially in the longer run. This will include buying fewer new-use products, low-emission buildings, hybrid-electric vehicles and bikes, and generally building more sustainable cities (in this vein, it's welcome news that China <a href="http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/b-china/2009/05/28/209935/China-to.htm">will build 19 urban railways</a> by 2015). Such an emphasis on low-carbon lifestyles will be a big shift from the government's current, production-side focus on reducing energy and resource consumption (the Circular Economy concept). <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">NGOs</span> may therefore have to play a crucial role. <br /><br />To <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">CGS</span></span>, the conference reinforced the point that climate negotiations with China will come down to two things: how clean technology is transferred to China, and how adaptation efforts are financed. The first part will likely require innovative licensing arrangements for technology developed in the US but produced in China, and Congress won't like that very much. The second goal will likely need to be focused on agriculture and rural development.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-20692574056018052692009-06-09T07:42:00.000-07:002009-06-09T08:15:20.448-07:00Report from Stern's visit to BeijingTodd Stern and a US climate cooperation delegation made an appearance at a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">roundtable</span> discussion at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Tsinghua</span> University today, which <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">CGS</span></span> weaseled itself into. It was "off the record," so to to maintain whatever journalistic integrity it has, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">CGS</span></span> will only refer to general comments and threads of discussion (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Chatham</span> House rules).<br /><br />With one exception, a really good, but unattributable quote: "We are mindful of the unforgiving imperative of the atmosphere." Well, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">CGS</span></span> for one will sleep a little better knowing that.<br /><br />Unfortunately, the rules of the game haven't changed: China still emphasizes the need for growth and development, while the US side slowly chips away at China's protests that it is a developing country, noting that China cannot claim to be as helpless in the face of climate change as, say, Haiti.<br /><br />However, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">roundtable</span> did come closer to identifying a key negotiating front than previous sessions: technology cooperation. The Chinese side, possibly because it was dominated by representatives of the energy and engineering bureaucracy, constantly called for technology transfer. The US side forthrightly said that the United States has neither the monetary resources nor the political will to finance China's clean energy transformation: it can purchase the technology on the open market. What's needed, they said, is closer to an equitable (presumably meaning the US won't pay) "technology cooperation" arrangement. <br /><br />A possible foundation for compromise emerged when Chinese representatives responded by saying that the US can do more to promote development of technologies that meet China's needs as a developing country, something most feasibly done through private-sector partnerships. Governments, meanwhile, can collaborate on enhancing China's capacity for clean technology deployment and implementation, especially in the area of measuring, verifying, and reporting emissions. <br /><br />That might be something Congress can live with. But one big hurdle remains, and one recognized by both sides: intellectual property (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">IP</span>). Both sides noted that there's a lot of misunderstanding on this issue, that China is actually better on some <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">IP</span> issues than it's given credit for, and that there's a whole range of technologies, mostly in energy efficiency, where <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">IP</span> issues are not a significant impediment. <br /><br />So long and short, a focus of continued negotiations should be on capacity building in technology transfer, not simply discussion of the transfer and financing itself. To offer some <span style="font-style: italic;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">CGS</span> commentary, the Chinese side didn't seem to be budging much, but that's understandable: at a minimum, the US has to pass domestic cap and trade legislation before China can be expected to make any concessions. But you do have to take a step back and think: a bunch of earnest, capable people all speaking frankly about the importance of US-China climate cooperation for the future of the world. That would have been almost unimaginable a year ago.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-27439676659711396842009-06-07T18:20:00.000-07:002009-06-07T18:39:56.941-07:00Mr. Stern goes to BeijingTodd Stern, the chief American climate negotiator, arrived yesterday in Beijing for talks meant to pave the way for Copenhagen. The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/world/08treaty.html?ref=global-home">New York Times</a> quoted Congressman Edward <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Markey</span>, co-sponsor of the <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/05/getting-serious-on-climate-american.html">American Clean Energy and Security Act</a>, who recently returned from a Beijing trip, as saying, "This is going to be one of the most complex diplomatic negotiations in the history of the world." <br /><br />It's not too much hyperbole to go even further and say it will also be one of the most important, determining a great deal of the ecological fate of the world this century. Given this importance, what China says and does between Stern's visit and the negotiations at Copenhagen will also signal a great deal about what kind of country China really is, and what kind of power it aspires to become. If it offers sensible concessions and true partnership to the United States, we can be reassured that China wants to buy into a rules-based global order, in which there is a strong presumption of common interest. It would also speak well of China's technocratic regime (though it will be, and should be, forever in the shadow of Mao's totalitarianism and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Tiannanmen</span>). If, on the other hand, China sticks to its current talking points, which offer no concrete emissions reduction and continue to blame the West for climate change, we can all grow a lot more concerned about the future of international cooperation.<br /><br />(See also Julian Wong's <a href="http://greenleapforward.com/2009/06/04/chinas-climate-progress-by-the-numbers/">excellent summary</a> of what China has done to date on climate change).Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-61474196559647851662009-06-06T02:04:00.000-07:002009-06-06T02:29:02.778-07:00Climate change as a security issue for China<span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span> </span>has been absent for the last month, having been caught on the wrong side of China's Great Firewall (The twentieth anniversary of the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/4/newsid_2496000/2496277.stm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Tiananmen</span> Square massacre</a> was Thursday). <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">CGS</span> </span>has also been working on a paper entitled "Climate Change, Water, and China's National Security," to be presented at a conference in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Hong</span> Kong later this month. <br /><br />Here's what <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">CGS</span></span> learned and concluded:<br /><br />China and its neighboring countries are in for several acute water-related impacts as a result of climate change. Some areas of northwest China and eastern India will face severe irrigation challenges as water availability from Himalayan glacial <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">meltwater</span> decreases <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">precipitously</span> by the end of the century. Second, arid regions of China, especially the north, will become even drier. Third, south China and the Mekong delta will come under severe risk of catastrophic flooding. Essentially, most parts of China will have too little water when they need it (the dry season), and too much when they don't (the wet season). <br /><br />China is fortunate in that it is wealthy enough that it can adapt to many of the worst consequences of these climactic changes. It can build dams and flood control infrastructure to store water and prevent destructive flooding, and it can invest in massive schemes like the South-North Water Transfer project to redress regional water shortages. Even if water shortages threaten crop production in China's breadbasket northern regions, China is wealthy enough that it can import much greater amounts of food.<br /><br />What is clear is that water-related climate impacts will stress social and political institutions. Yes, China can invest in adaptation, but it will be expensive. Government agencies and the military will be harder pressed to develop response capabilities to water shortages. Meanwhile, water shortages threaten social stability in fragile areas of China, especially <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Xinjiang</span>. Finally, water issues will become a more prominent feature of China's foreign relations, for which it is currently unprepared and inexperienced. <br /><br />Climate change does not (obviously) threaten China's security in the same way that Soviet Russia once did, or that (according to the censors...) Twitter does today (it has been blocked for weeks). Rather, it will be an acute stress factor for social and political actors. Add in the many other such <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">stressors</span> (income inequality, economic hardship, political <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">illiberalism</span>, etc), and China will be compelled to pay more attention to climate impacts in the coming years. <br /><br />Of course, and this is important on the eve of the US climate envoy's visit to China, China wouldn't have to worry so much if it commits to reduce its <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">GHG</span> emissions at Copenhagen this December. <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">CGS</span></span> believes the enduring value of seeing climate as a strategic issue for China is that it can help compel Beijing to see that climate change will stress China's social and political foundations, and is not simply an economic or ecological issue. Many of the government's great projects, such as the Western Development Project (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Xibu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">da</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">kaifa</span>) will be greatly imperiled by climate impacts. <br /><br />On an only partially related note: <br /><br />A brief word on the climate negotiations: I've recently been in several fora where I've gotten into arguments about the necessity of China accepting firm commitments, and it's just this simple: China is too big for it to be an X factor in the global climate equation. Any formula the negotiators come up with in Copenhagen is meaningless unless China's contribution is codified. <br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">CGS</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span></span>knows it's preaching to the choir here, but had to get that off its chest.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-43480773874570260402009-05-09T01:12:00.000-07:002009-05-09T01:45:11.692-07:00Getting Serious on Climate: the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009Early last month, the US House of Representatives released a public summary of the <a href="http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090331/acesa_summary.pdf">American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009</a> (<span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span></span> is a little behind on this, but better late than never!). The Act, abbreviated <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">ACESA</span>, is important to US-China climate cooperation for several reasons. The first of these is obvious: with wide-ranging provisions to ramp up energy efficiency and introduce a domestic cap-and-trade system for carbon dioxide, it's America's first serious attempt to reduce its national greenhouse gas emissions to responsible levels. Second, the Act includes several far-sighted provisions for international cooperation, several of which bear specifically on China. <br /><br />First, a survey of the Act's most revolutionary and hard-hitting provisions. For starters, the Act requires that retail electricity providers obtain 25% of their energy from renewable sources, a far higher share than at present. It also envisions the creation of a "smart grid" to efficiently distribute electricity, which would represent the largest investment in America's energy infrastructure since rural electrification programs in the 1930s. A provision to enable federal agencies to negotiate purchases of renewable energy could potentially have far-reaching impacts; if, for example, the Department of Interior were to do so, it could stimulate rural renewable sources, since many Interior facilities are located in America's heartland. <br /><br />By far the most eye-catching part of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">ACESA</span>, however, is its cap and trade system:<br /><blockquote><br />The draft establishes a market-based program for reducing global warming pollution from electric utilities, oil companies, large industrial sources, and other covered entities that collectively are responsible for 85% of U.S. global warming emissions. Under this program, covered entities must have <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">tradable</span> federal permits, called “allowances,” for each ton of pollution emitted into the atmosphere. Entities that emit less than 25,000 tons per year of CO2 equivalent are not covered by this program. The program reduces the number of available allowances issued each year to ensure that aggregate emissions from the covered entities are reduced by 3% below 2005 levels in 2012, 20% below 2005 levels in 2020, 42% below 2005 levels in 2030, and 83% below 2005 levels in 2050.</blockquote>The biggest implication of this provision is that, if adopted, there will be no major industrialized country without serious legislation in place to dramatically reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This will inevitably shift the focus towards the world's emerging emissions superpowers, India and China. <br /><br />Some smaller provisions, if taken to scale, may also have implications for China: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">ACESA</span> suggests that substantial resources will be devoted to investing in carbon capture and storage (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">CCS</span>), improving building and appliance energy efficiency, and greening the transport sector. All of these are areas in which American technical knowledge can be profitably employed in China. One provision though is certain to anger China: a stipulation that<br /><br /><blockquote>To ensure that U.S. manufacturers are not put at a disadvantage relative to overseas competitors, the draft authorizes companies in certain industrial sectors to receive “rebates” to compensate for additional costs incurred under the program. Sectors that use large amounts of energy, and produce commodities that are traded globally, would be eligible for the rebates. If the President finds that the rebate provisions do not sufficiently correct competitive imbalances, the President is directed to establish a “border adjustment” program. Under that program, foreign manufacturers and importers would be required to pay for and hold special allowances to “cover” the carbon contained in U.S.-bound products. </blockquote><br />Apart from these articles, though, are specific provisions that address international cooperation. At the international level, experts (and the Bali <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Roadmap</span>) have long stressed addressing both mitigation and adaptation. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">ACESA</span> has learned this lesson, and includes a section directing the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration to create a National Climate Service, and each federal agency to conduct a review of climate adaptation issues. Even more importantly, however, it also "creates an International Climate Change Adaptation Program within <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">USAID</span> to provide U.S. assistance to the most vulnerable developing countries for adaptation to climate change."<br /><br />Finally, and most significantly for China, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">ACESA</span> also includes a provision<br /><br /><blockquote>to provide U.S. assistance to encourage widespread deployment of clean technologies to developing countries. The draft specifies that only developing countries that have ratified an international treaty and undertaken nationally appropriate mitigation activities that achieve substantial greenhouse gas reductions are eligible for funding.</blockquote>This language, with its stipulation that recipients of clean technology assistance ratify an emissions-mitigation treaty, seems aimed directly at India and China.<br /><br />In sum, then, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">ACESA</span> represents a great leap forward for the US on climate change issues. First, if adopted and implemented fully, it promises to shift the political burden for reducing emissions more resolutely on the developing world, within which China is the biggest target. The adaptation fund provision, if (and it's a big if) fully funded, could help the US to diplomatically isolate China and other big-country emitters from their allies in the more impoverished developing world, thereby increasing leverage for China and India to agree to concrete measures to reduce their emissions. Second, it includes several provisions that lay the groundwork for effective US-China cooperation on the development and deployment of clean technologies at a large scale. <br /><br />Sadly, there are also significant pitfalls for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">ACESA</span> acting as a catalyst for greater US-China climate cooperation. First, the "climate protectionist" provision of the bill will almost certainly raise China's ire, and will probably provoke retaliatory measures if it is passed by Congress. In the long run, such protectionism will damage technology cooperation efforts, to the benefit of no one. Second, and most damagingly, it looks like <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">ACESA</span> will require significant watering-down to secure passage through Congress. As <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/08/opinion/08fri1.html">The New York Times</a> has reported, the bill faces significant opposition from conservative Democrats and Republicans, especially in these jobs-<span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">hemorrhaging</span> times. <br /><br />Nonetheless, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">ACESA</span> demonstrates that the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">pendulum</span> is swinging towards action on climate in America, and that means it will be a bigger issue for China, too. The future for US-China <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">climate</span> cooperation remains brighter than it has ever been. What remains unclear is if it will actually outshine the many dark clouds that the threat of climate change continue to cast over China, America, and the world at large.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-22386750719412772002009-05-08T03:47:00.000-07:002009-05-08T04:11:33.533-07:00Planning for Smart Growth<span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span></span> is returning from a long absence, much of which was spent researching developments in the United Arab Emirates, which due to its oil reserves and carbon-intensive model of development is of great importance to the global environment. The thing that most blew <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">CGS</span> away, however, is <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Abu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Dhabi's</span> <a href="http://www.transportabudhabi.ae/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Sufrace</span> Transport <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Masterplan</span></a>. The plan envisions moving up to 50,000 people every two minutes, using a visionary combination of heavy and light rail, bus, traffic demand management, and transit-oriented development. The scale of the plan is astounding, not least because it entails creating one of the world's most extensive transport networks essentially from scratch by 2030. <br /><br />China would do well to study it. The country may not have the Emirate's per-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">capita</span> wealth (this courtesy of the country's oil reserves), but China does face a similar trend of urban population growth. Sustainable transport strategies, along with smart urban planning, will be crucial to easing (and greening) China's rapid transition to becoming an urban nation. <br /><br />A <a href="http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2905">recent article</a> by Energy Foundation analyst Felix <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Creutzig</span> in China Dialogue provides some indication of the imperative for smart growth. According to his analysis, the cost of congestion in the capital (Beijing has some 3.6 million cars) and air <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">polluion</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">amont</span> to 7.5% of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Beijing's</span> GDP, excluding the high cost of vehicle emission contributions to climate change. <br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Creutzig</span> offers a number of recommendations, including the building of satellite towns with transit-oriented development and the implementation of congestion pricing. Indeed, Beijing already has a few good examples of smart planning: the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Xizhimen</span> transport hub, for example, pretty successfully integrates long-distance rail, urban rail, and bus links with a large commercial complex and nearby residential areas. <br /><br />Smart growth will not, of course, solve China's (or the world's) climate problems, but it makes sense for many other reasons, not the least of which is economic, as <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Creutzig</span> shows. Moreover, smart growth maximizes co-benefits from reducing air pollution and congestion. <br /><br />The principal impediment to promoting smart growth in China is the chaotic nature of local government. Beijing is in a better position than most, since it is a "municipality" that integrates local and provincial government. But for smart growth to take hold, the creation of multi-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">jurisditcional</span>, regional planning organizations could be a big help.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-9232454323920846642009-04-18T09:16:00.000-07:002009-04-18T09:20:30.249-07:00Co-authored editorial with Julian Wong of Green Leap ForwardReaders of this blog will be familiar with the argument that a bolder, more aggressive stance on climate change will benefit China in a great many ways. The following is a hopefully more <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">persuasive</span> version of that argument, co-authored with Julian Wong of <a href="http://greenleapforward.com/">The Green Leap Forward</a>, and published in <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bw/2009-04/13/content_7670151.htm">last week's China Daily</a>:<br /><br /><p></p><blockquote><p>The year 2009 may well be remembered as the Year of Climate Cooperation. Shortly after the New Year, the inauguration of Barack Obama heralded a new effort to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions, and to place special emphasis on working with China on climate issues. In a few more months, the world's nations will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, to try to forge a global agreement to prevent catastrophic climate change.</p> <p>The tide of history is shifting towards a belated but crucial effort to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. China has a uniquely important opportunity to help shape this momentous new chapter in history, one that can be grasped by taking a new look at its national policy on climate change.</p> <p>The Chinese government's 2008 "White Paper on China's Policies and Actions on Climate Change," together with the 2007 National Climate Change Program, outlines substantial efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. China has an opportunity to build on this effort by formulating a visionary policy that will enhance its national security, promote sustainable economic development and position it as a full partner in one of the most important global efforts of our era.</p> <p>A visionary national climate change policy should be forward-thinking - too much time has been wasted in debates over the carbon that is "embedded" in China's exports and the responsibility of developed nations for the majority of historical global emissions.</p> <p>These arguments are not wholly without merit but miss the point at a time when all nations, including China, must act quickly to build energy-efficient, low-carbon economies or risk runaway climate change.</p> <p>A national climate change policy should also express China's willingness, in time, to commit to greenhouse gas emissions reductions, focusing initially on specific industrial sectors and, eventually, on economy-wide "caps" on total emissions. This step is necessary since battling climate change requires the decrease of absolute emissions of each nation, as opposed to merely decreasing energy consumption per unit of GDP, which is China's current policy.</p> <p>The policy should use a mixture of incentives and mandates, to place China on the road to an energy transformation, away from conventional fossil-fuel power generation and towards the use of renewable energy sources and energy conservation measures.</p> <p>China will benefit from a bold and visionary climate policy in several areas including enhanced security since the country will be in an increasingly precarious position as a result of changing climate, particularly in terms of water availability.</p> <p>Most of the major river systems that feed and water China, India, and Southeast Asia depend on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">meltwater</span> from the Himalayan region. Climate change is endangering this vital source of water for 60 percent of the human population. Himalayan glaciers, which provide some 70 percent of the flow of major Asian rivers, are melting at an extremely rapid rate; one study, published in the prestigious journal Nature, predicts that the Himalayan-Hindu <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Kush</span> region will start to "run out of water" during the dry season. Besides disrupting agricultural activities and destabilizing massive and volatile populations, such a situation would imperil China's economic growth.</p> <p>Additionally, the aggressive pursuit of a truly low carbon economy can help establish an era of unparalleled innovation and economic prosperity. A study by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">CERNA</span>, for example, shows that countries that committed themselves to mandatory emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol experienced increased levels of innovation in green technologies over those that did not.</p> <p>The depth and diversity of these economic development opportunities are enormous; China can create millions of urban, high-tech jobs in the manufacture, installation, operation and maintenance of renewable power systems. It can also revive rural economies through the development of sustainable agriculture practices. In all regions, huge amounts of money can be saved as citizens breathe cleaner air and drink cleaner water, reducing the incidence of some diseases.</p> <p>Action on climate change is also an important sign of membership in the international community. Climate change has emerged as a global issue of paramount importance and by demonstrating that it is prepared to act boldly to combat climate change , China can help to reinforce its image as a responsible nation. Two <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Hunan</span> University professors wrote in a recent China Daily editorial that "developing a low-carbon economic is a must as China continues to industrialize, not only for the nation's energy security but also as part of an urgent international responsibility to address global climate change."</p> <p>By embracing this responsibility, China can gain recognition as a full partner in one of the most important global efforts in human history, while also ensuring it has a seat at the table as a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is forged.</p> <p>The fundamental value in a bold, visionary national climate policy is that it builds the foundation for a sustainable future. China stands to gain a great deal from becoming a leader in green technologies, a resource-efficient economy, and a largely self-sufficient energy consumer. China's current policy on climate change is significant and a step in the right direction, but hopefully it represents merely a rough draft of a strategy equal to the challenge of climate change.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;">Scott Moore is a Fulbright Fellow with the Environmental Economics and Policy Study Group at Peking University. Julian Wong is an independent energy analyst, founder of the Beijing Energy Network, and author of the blog <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">GreenLeapForward</span>.com. The views expressed in the article are their own.</p><br /></blockquote>Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-37344452206434267322009-04-03T20:41:00.001-07:002009-04-03T22:02:45.552-07:00Bridging the developed/developing nation divide on climateOne of the <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html">thorniest aspects</a> of the global climate problem is how to apportion the burdens of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The old rich world is responsible for the vast majority of historic anthropogenic emissions, but the growth in global emissions comes largely from emerging markets, especially the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Indo</span>-Chinese giants.<br /><br />As a result, scholars and climate experts devote a lot of time to thinking about how to break the deadlock (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/talks-begin-in-poznan-can-asia-change.html">previous post</a>). <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Hu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Angang</span>, an economist at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Tsinghua</span> University, published an essay recently on China Dialogue that presents an interesting take on the issue, and proposes a new emissions reduction trajectory for China, which will be crucial to the success of the overall global effort to reduce emissions (see <a href="http://climateprogress.org/2009/04/03/climate-bill-cap-and-trade-bipartisan/">Climate Progress</a>). <br /><br />Essentially, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Hu</span> proposes defining <a href="http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2892">four categories</a> for emissions-reduction purposes based on the Human Development Index (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">HDI</span>): high, medium-high, medium-low, and low. The last two categories would have no responsibility to reduce emissions, while the medium-high group, of which China is a member, would have emissions-reductions targets calculated according to the gap in their <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">HDI</span> value from the high category (0.8 or above on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">HDI</span>). These distinctions would also be used to calculate financing of adaptation and technology transfer. <br /><br />According to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Hu's</span> formula, the following <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">roadmap</span> should be set for China:<br /><br /><blockquote>By 2020 carbon dioxide emissions should have peaked;<br />By 2030 there should be annual emissions of less than 2.2 billion tonnes (a reduction to 1990 levels).<br />By 2050 there should be annual emissions of less than 1.1 billion tonnes (half of 1990 levels).<br /><br /></blockquote>By way of comparison, the US emitted about 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon in 2007 (<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2008-10-22-china-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global-warming_N.htm">see article</a>). <br /><br />Promising as these targets are, what is more significant is <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Hu's</span> phraseology in promoting them:<br /><br /><span></span><blockquote><span>China’s international emissions reduction policy is not in step with the world. China is still considered a developing country, with no emissions reduction responsibilities, commitments or contributions toward meeting an international consensus.</span><br /><br /><span>A public commitment to reduce emissions, backed by central government targets, would be a massive spur to domestic emissions cuts. Participation in international climate-change negotiations and adopting climate-change regulations can provide the opportunity to implement of a beneficial energy and climate policy. More importantly, worsening climate change will increase the pressure to cut emissions. Failure to change energy and climate policy will mean choosing to fight over resources.</span></blockquote><span>Yes, yes, yes! <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Hu's</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">HDI</span> approach is interesting, since it in theory ties mitigation burden to a broader range of factors than simply wealth; <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">HDI</span> is intended to measure institutional capacity and quality of life as well. But what's far more important is the premise of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Hu's</span> argument: that China's current climate change policy is out of step with the times, with its own national interest, and with reality. <br /><br />In several recent, previous posts, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">CGS</span></span> has described a shift in tone on climate issues. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Hu's</span> essay is another indication that elite opinion in China may be shifting towards one that accepts more concrete responsibility to reduce emissions. Let's certainly hope that shift is in evidence at the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen this December. <br /></span>Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-85230477530082146272009-03-31T23:10:00.000-07:002009-03-31T23:17:24.471-07:00China and America's new climate legislationThe New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/03/31/31greenwire-house-democrats-release-draft-energy-emissions-10364.html">reported</a> today that two members of the US House of Representatives have released a draft version of a bill intended to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by 83% from 1990 levels by 2050. The bill is only a first step; Climate Progress has a <a href="http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/31/white-house-endorses-waxman-markey-senate-majority-whip-durbin-says-he-doesnt-have-60-votes-for-it-house-gop-keeps-lying/">good piece</a> on why any such climate legislation will face greater hurdles in the Senate.<br /><br />Nonetheless, the bill represents another milestone in the long trek towards solving the climate problem. Charles <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">McElwee</span> at China Environmental Law Blog has a <a href="http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/04/01/waxman-markey-and-china-first-take/">good post</a> on the implications of the bill for US-China climate cooperation, technology transfer, and joint emissions reductions. The most significant impact of the legislation, though, is likely to be simply that the United States takes climate change seriously (finally!). It will soon become developing nations' turn to do so.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-88647329424512762932009-03-29T21:10:00.000-07:002009-03-29T21:37:33.154-07:00Against crisis, China attempts to tighten enforcement of pollution lawsFollowing last month's <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/jiangsu-acid-leak-exposes-another-hole.html">acid spill in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Jiangsu</span></a>, China's government has acted to tighten enforcement of the country's environmental laws. Charles <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">McElwee's</span> <a href="http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/03/27/chinas-new-environmental-penalty-opinion/">China Environmental Law Blog reports</a> that the Ministry of Environmental Protection (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">MEP</span>) has issued a new Notice containing several innovative policies, including a focus on corrective action, designed to strengthen enforcement of China's environmental laws (see also <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/environmental-enforcement-in-china.html">previous post</a> on problems in the country's environmental enforcement). <br /><br />This move comes as part of a broader effort by Beijing to improve environmental protection, especially as it concerns water pollution. In February, following the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Jiangsu</span> disaster, a senior <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">MEP</span> official acknowledged that despite several previous attempts to control pollution, "The general situation of environmental pollution does not allow us to be optimistic" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-02/24/content_17328051.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Xinhua</span></a>). <br /><br />This month appears to have brought redoubled efforts to redress the situation. An <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">MEP</span> circular issued last week castigated local authorities for lax enforcement of water pollution laws, and to improve water quality monitoring (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/policies_announcements/2009-03/23/content_17489051.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Xinhua</span></a>). Officials also announced today (March 30) that thirteen officials in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Henan</span> province were punished (one with a prison sentence) for failing to stop arsenic <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">contamination</span> on a stretch of the Dasha river, which news reports said was some 899 times healthy levels (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/government/local_governments/2009-03/30/content_17521015.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Xinhua</span></a>). <br /><br />Such efforts to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">strengthen</span> the enforcement of environmental laws are necessary, but they illustrate an important failing in China's environmental policy: its obsession with the idea of a centralized "policy cudgel." What I mean by this is the insistence that the central government's policies would indeed improve China's environmental situation, if only local governments could be cowed into following orders (this appears to be a primary motivation behind recent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">MEP</span> Regional <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Supervision</span> Centers- more on this later). This approach is far too blunt an instrument, particularly when China's legal system doesn't bear anything like the enforcement capabilities wielded by, say, the US Environmental Protection Administration.<br /><br />Instead of focusing on building a bigger and more potent cudgel, Beijing should focus on the longer-term tasks of enhancing citizen participation and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">NGO</span> monitoring capabilities to aid in environmental enforcement, while also pursuing political and legal reforms that will make it easier to take polluters, and the corrupt officials that protect them, to court. Promotion of officials based on economic growth statistics should be ended. Moreover, less coercive, market-based <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">approaches</span> like <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/payment-for-ecosystem-services-in-china.html">Payment for Ecosystem Services</a> should be pursued aggressively. <br /><br />Robust environmental protection requires an expensive, resource- and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">bureaucracy</span>-intensive edifice. But the public interests it protects- clean air, clean water, healthy people- are vital to a prosperous, sustainable society.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-35831286917586570792009-03-25T18:42:00.000-07:002009-03-25T20:10:01.214-07:00Climate impacts in ChinaWe're all in for a rocky road ahead if climate change continues apace. But China, as a large, still mostly poor, ecologically diverse region, faces a special set of challenges, as the government acknowledges (see "<a href="http://www.china.org.cn/government/news/2008-10/29/content_16681689.htm">China's Policies and Actions in Addressing Global Climate Change</a>"). This post draws on some recent news reports to illustrate some of the various impacts China is likely to confront as the climate changes. <br /><br />One is disease: as many high-altitude and high-latitude areas warm, the viable ranges of pathogens and disease vectors (like mosquitoes) increase. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Zhao</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Linnuo</span>, Deputy-Director of the China Applied Meteorology Office, explained to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Xinhua</span> that atmospheric warming produces conditions favorable to the spread and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">propagation</span> of insect-borne diseases. "If pathogens formerly confined to the south were to spread to the north," <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Zhao</span> said, "diseases [formerly confined to the] wild may spread into inhabited areas; at the same time, the incidence of food-borne diseases is likely to increase as a result of warming." Climate change would also impact human health, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Zhao</span> noted, via secondary impacts on precipitation, wind velocity, and pollution concentrations (see <a href="http://env.people.com.cn/GB/9012795.html"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Xinhua</span>, in Chinese only</a>). <br /><br />Another expert, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Jin</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Yinlong</span>, explained that climate change will increase the incidence of both flooding and drought; in the former case, it would also lead to the spread of water-borne disease. "Climate change is likely to impact all people in different ways," <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Jin</span> said. <br /><br />In a separate interview, the Vice-Director of China's <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Meteorological</span> Bureau warned that "from now on, extreme weather events will grow more frequent." Because China's population density and GDP total will also increase, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Xu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Xiaofeng</span> noted, its vulnerability to extreme weather events, including flooding, hurricanes, etc., will become more acute. The article also noted that from 2001-2008, the cost of natural disasters is estimated to have accounted for some 2.8% of China's GDP (see <a href="http://env.people.com.cn/GB/9010474.html">China Economic Weekly, in Chinese only</a>).<br /><br />Perhaps most importantly, the officials also offered <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">prescriptions</span> on how to counter the threats posed by the spread of disease and extreme weather. The former article noted that atmospheric experts "call on businesses and the people at large to take steps to increase their awareness of climate change, safeguard the air we breathe, make a habit of saving energy to reduce emissions, sparely use wooden chopsticks and plastic bags, and rarely drive cars." Vice-Director <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Xu</span> also noted that America has a robust disaster-warning system in place, one that China would do well to adopt. <br /><br />These two articles nicely illustrate two of the key strategies for dealing with climate change: mitigation (as by driving fewer cars) and adaptation (warning people of natural disasters, which are likely to become more frequent). It's heartening to see so much talk of climate in the Chinese press; a few years ago, there was almost none. The high profile of expert discussion on climate also bodes well; it's much the same kind of citizen-science that has been so crucial in pushing the climate agenda forward in America. <br /><br />But of course all of this means little unless China's elite agrees to do more to reduce its emissions. A <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/opinions/2009-03/24/content_17491419.htm">recent editorial</a> in China Daily nicely sums up the situation: <br /><br /><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;"></p><blockquote> <p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">With nobody but ourselves to blame for increasingly frequent extreme weather conditions, it is high time we did something to reduce the greenhouse emissions we discharge. The convening of the United Nations' conference on climate change at the end of last year was a sign that increasing numbers of countries and politicians have come to realize that climate change is something that nations must jointly deal with. We cannot afford to wait until it is too late - when the rising seas have submerged continents and the disappearance of glaciers has dried up our rivers. This annual day [World <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Meteorological</span> Day] should be a reminder to all that we have an impact on world weather, and that global warming is a matter of life and death.</p></blockquote><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;"></p>Word. It's long past time to bicker about things like the amount of carbon embedded in China's exports, or even the admittedly stronger <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">argument</span> about the West's high levels of historic emissions (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html">previous post</a>). China must move beyond its fixation on its developing-country status, to the more pressing issue of how it will be affected- in terms of disease, weather, <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/03/focus-on-water-in-china.html">water</a>, etc- if it does not act to reduce its own emissions, which account for so much of the global total. China Daily hits exactly the right note- we hope it's one China is willing to sing at <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Copenhagen</span> come December.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-10326536392400581822009-03-24T21:28:00.000-07:002009-03-24T22:36:37.159-07:00Focus on water in ChinaThe <a href="http://www.worldwaterforum5.org/index.php?id=1870&amp;L=0%2522%2520onfo">World Water Forum</a>, which convened last week in Turkey, may not be the sexiest of international environmental gatherings. But it is likely to become one of the most important, for the chief human impact of climate change is likely to be profound changes in the availability and distribution of fresh water. Mindful of such importance, this post focuses on China's water situation in an age of climate change. <br /><br />The <a href="http://china.org.cn/china/news/2009-02/17/content_17292682.htm">devastating drought</a> which hit northern China in recent months, affecting some 10.3 million hectares, was a potent reminder of the nation's precarious water situation. One farmer was quoted as saying, "I haven't seen such a severe drought in my life" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/china/opinion/2009-02/06/content_17238691.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Xinhua</span></a>). Overpopulation, exacerbated by decades of disastrous, yield-maximizing agricultural policies, has devastated large portions of northern China, leaving it vulnerable to desertification, which climate change in turn is accelerating. Poor soil management results in extensive erosion; one recent report claimed that China loses 1 million <span style="font-style: italic;">mu </span>(about 0.6 acres) of arable land annually to soil erosion (see <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Renmin</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Ribao</span>, <a href="http://env.people.com.cn/GB/9005348.html">in Chinese only</a>). In the meantime, climate models, while subject to significant uncertainty, suggest that seasonal runoff from the Himalayan plateau is likely to decrease precipitously in the coming years, affecting nearly all of China's major river systems (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-china-environmental-cooperation-as.html">previous post</a>). <br /><br />The gravity of the situation has not gone unnoticed by China's government. Its response to the drought was swift, issuing a "red alert" in some areas of the country, and providing emergency assistance. Meanwhile, experts issued a string of announcements focusing better on water management and efficiency. The President of the China Agricultural University emphasized water-saving irrigation techniques: "To deal with climate abnormalities, a growing water shortage, and the threat to food security, we must speed the use of farming and irrigation methods that save water" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/china/opinion/2009-02/06/content_17238691_2.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Xinhua</span></a>). In early March, the powerful National Development and Reform Commission vowed to lower industrial water consumption by 5.6% and to increase the utilization of industrial <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">wastewater</span> to some 66% in 2009. <br /><br />At the World Water Forum itself, China's Minister of Water Resources, Chen Lei, vowed to increase China's efforts to develop water resources for sustainable development. Chen highlighted ten areas where the government would ramp up water infrastructure investment: <blockquote>"the reinforcement of risky reservoirs, rural drinking water security, water saving facility upgrading in large-scale irrigation areas, comprehensive management of major rivers and lakes, rehabilitation and upgrading of large-scale irrigation pumping stations, key water projects and water sources, water infrastructure construction in farmland, water and soil conservation, rural <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">hydropower</span> development and electrification, as well as capacity building" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-03/23/content_17484494.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Xinhua</span></a>).</blockquote>At the Forum, China also issued a joint statement with Japan and South Korea pledging cooperation, information sharing, and "trilateral cooperation" on water issues (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/features_analyses/2009-03/16/content_17476758_2.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Xinhua</span></a>). There are a great many areas of fruitful cooperation on water management issues, including <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/payment-for-ecosystem-services-in-china.html">eco-compensation</a> and <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/03/dealing-with-transboundary-water.html">watershed management</a>. <br /><br />The attention being devoted to water issues is welcome, but it's likely to be insufficient, for three primary reasons. First, China's main approach to water resource management so far has been to conduct giant engineering projects, like the South-North Water Transfer effort to bring water from the south to the arid north. But engineering alone is little more than a stop-gap measure, which a recent reservoir project in Shanghai illustrates. The Shanghai region, being a low-lying coastal <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">estuary</span>, is vulnerable to salt tides, which contaminate freshwater supplies. As the sea level rises, salt tides are a growing concern in coastal areas around the world. The government's response to salt tides has been to construct the giant <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Qingcaosha</span> reservoir, with a capacity of 7.2 million cubic meters. But as the <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/opinions/2009-02/27/content_17345394.htm">Shanghai Daily</a> article announcing the reservoir notes, "A new reservoir is by no means the long-term answer to the city's chronic lack of clean water." Silt from the Yangtze (another result of soil erosion), the article notes, is likely to clog the reservoir. Moreover, if runoff to the Yangtze declines as <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">propitiously</span> as predicted, Shanghai may have to resort to expensive desalinization to supply adequate freshwater. Despite the temptation to think so, humanity can't simply engineer itself out of water shortages. <br /><br />Which leads to the second challenge confronting water management in China: the shamefully low price of water. Despite continual pledges to raise it (see <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/business/news/2008-08/14/content_16223967.htm">China.org.cn</a>), the Chinese government has found it difficult to make poor peasant farmers, who account for the majority of wasteful water use in China, pay significantly more for water. As a result, the price remains too low to encourage the most advanced water saving techniques. According to one water expert, "Although water-saving measures are used in northern China, many mature technologies aren't popular because of the high cost and low awareness of saving water" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/china/opinion/2009-02/06/content_17238691_2.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Xinhua</span></a>). So the impasse continues: as long as the government remains undecided about how to encourage rural economic development without raising the price of water, China's <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">agricultural</span> sector will continue to waste large amounts of water. <br /><br />This is a dangerous path to tread, since there is likely to be less and less of it, at least in northern China. Climate change means that droughts and flooding are both likely to become more severe, and while the distribution of precipitation will undoubtedly change in many regions, it's <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">likely</span> to be for the worse. Engineering projects, like reservoirs and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">desalinization</span> plants, will help with adaptation and the stabilization of drinking water supplies, but ultimately such engineering will not compensate for the shifts in water availability. That requires tackling climate change. So far, as <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">CGS</span></span> has continually documented, China has taken a very conservative position on climate issues (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html">previous post</a>). <br /><br />However, as a recent <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/opinions/2009-03/17/content_17456614.htm">China Daily</a> editorial illustrates, China is re-evaluating its stance as the crucial Copenhagen climate conference approaches in December. Climate change, the editorial notes, "is hitting the Asian continent already." Repeating a standard Chinese government line, the editorial <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">emphasizes</span> that Asian nations should push for more money for adaptation, but then goes on to note that "The focus on adaptation...should not distract us from also paying attention to the other major building block, mitigation, and formulating a clear strategy on the issue." While the focus should remain on pushing developed nations to reduce emissions, the editorial also says that calls for "urging larger developing countries to take whatever actions they can to reduce theirs without hampering their development aspirations." Most importantly, the editorial hits the right note in concluding that the Copenhagen agreement "will determine the fate of the world, in particular Asia, for decades to come." <br /><br />Water is a key environmental issue for China, Asia, and the world, making its management one of the foremost considerations for policymakers everywhere. This requires negotiating thorny issues of access, fighting important agricultural constituencies, and many other issues. But it also entails solving the climate problem- the over-arching, all-important <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">wildcard</span> on the fate of which all other environmental issues will ultimately rest.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-65174165025890696022009-03-22T19:07:00.000-07:002009-03-22T20:09:26.324-07:00How to make international environmental cooperation work; Or, Report from EU Workshop on Carbon Capture and Sequestration RegulationThis past Wednesday and Thursday, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">CGS</span></span> attended a workshop on the European Union's <a href="http://www.euchina-ccs.org/">Support to Regulatory Activities in Carbon Capture and Storage</a> (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">CCS</span>) (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">STRACO</span>2) and <a href="http://www.co2-coach.com/">Cooperation Action Within <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">CCS</span> EU-China</a> (COACH) projects. The former, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">STRACO</span>2, is devoted to gathering lessons for China from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">CCS</span> regulatory regimes in place elsewhere, while the latter, according to its website, has as its main objective <blockquote>"to prepare the ground for developing large-scale facilities for zero emission electric power using coal as a feedstock. Options for hydrogen production as well as for production of synthetic fuels, and provisions for heat integration with surrounding industries will be investigated too. In this endeavour CO2 capture and permanent storage - including use for enhanced oil or gas recovery (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">EOR</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">EGR</span>) - constitute an inherent and decisive prerequisite."</blockquote><br /><br />Because they focus on a key climate change mitigation technology- <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">CCS</span>- the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">STRACO</span>2/COACH projects represent an important case study in international environmental cooperation, hence <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">CGS</span></span>'s interest. Briefly, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">CCS</span> is a technology that envisions capturing carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and "storing" it in impermeable geological formations, preventing its escape to the atmosphere. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">CCS</span> is typically envisioned as a major "wedge" in reducing global greenhouse gas (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">GHG</span>) emissions, since it theoretically permits the use of abundant fossil fuels without contributing to the change in the planet's carbon balance. As one workshop speaker noted, many <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">GHG</span> reduction scenarios envision almost 30% of reductions coming from the large-scale deployment of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">CCS</span> (see <a href="http://www.princeton.edu/%7Ecmi/research/ghgt/GHGT-7_poster_color_figures_7-1-04.pdf">Rob <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Socolow</span> and Steve <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Pacala's</span> classic wedge paper</a> on this). Problem is, it's far from a <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">commercially</span>-viable technology, hence the importance of the workshop. Deployment of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">CCS</span> entails overcoming a number of challenges, including finding suitable geologic formations and developing an adequate regulatory framework for storing the carbon. <br /><br />The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">STRACO</span>2/COACH project is wide-ranging, including carbon storage site qualification and certification and financing. A particularly interesting feature of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">STRACO</span>2 project was the use of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">questionnaires</span> to survey the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">CCS</span> field in China, and which provide interesting insights into the prospects for China. Some 60 forms with questions on policy and finance, technology outlook, etc., were sent to a variety of environmental, energy, research, and consultancy firms in China, with 35 responses. These indicated that 43% of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">respondents</span> see <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">CCS</span> as an "extremely important" technology for <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">combatting</span> climate change, while an additional 57% ranked it as "important." <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Respondents</span> listed (in ranked order) high cost, unproven technology, underdeveloped law and policy, and underdeveloped technology as the most important barriers to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">CCS</span> commercialization in China. Large majorities of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">respondents</span> also reported that developed nations for pay for the development of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">CCS</span> projects before commercialization, and that emissions trading offers the best prospect for long-term <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">CCS</span> financing. Notably, a significant majority also indicated that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">EOR</span> technology, which involves injecting CO2 into oil wells as oil is withdrawn, represents the best storage option. Finally, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">respondents</span> listed safety and responsibility as the most important considerations for developing a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">CCS</span> regulatory regime in China. <br /><br />The workshop also revealed a number of more general considerations and points of interest. There is a significant degree of suspicion over whether carbon can be safely stored underground, and whether "leakage" of carbon dioxide may pose a health risk to surrounding communities. China's geological storage potential also appears to be less favorable than in other countries, calling the widespread deployment of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">CCS</span> into question. Several gaps were assessed in China's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">CCS</span> capabilities, particularly in modelling technologies. The question of financing is also thorny; while most Chinese respondents indicated that developed countries should pay for the development of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">CCS</span> technology, it's unclear how this might occur. Several experts, for example, spoke against inclusion of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">CCS</span> in the Clean Development Mechanism, an important means of expanding clean technology in China. Perhaps most notably, one workshop speaker assessed the future of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">CCS</span> as "uncertain," stating that its capabilities are "often assumed, not assessed." <br /><br />In addition, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">STRACO</span>2/COACH project points out several significant issues for international clean technology cooperation. First is the need for robust stakeholder consultation: many in China remain suspicious of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">CCS</span>. Second, governments will have to engage in significant discussion over intellectual property issues, and ensure that broader industrial and science/technology policy is aligned with clean technology cooperation. Much more attention will also have to be given to the details of financing and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">incentivization</span> for clean technology.<br /><br />Finally, the workshop highlighted the utility of person-to-person exchange in enhancing clean technology cooperation. Debbi <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">Seligsohn</span> of the World Resources Institute described a program that gathered an interdisciplinary team of experts from China and the US to explore the various issues involved in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">CCS</span> deployment, and then organized a US study tour for participants, to be followed soon by a parallel China tour. By linking the people working on the ground in China with their counterparts in the US, the program helped to highlight important issues and challenges in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">CCS</span> deployment, and stands a good chance of catalyzing long-term international partnerships. <br /><br />In sum, then, the workshop illustrated several important lessons for international environmental cooperation. First, as China, America, the EU, and other nations struggle to ramp up clean technology deployment, such expert exchange programs will need to become a more common feature of the international landscape. Second, economists and policymakers should prioritize the issues of stakeholder consultation, financing, and intellectual property. <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">CGS</span></span> has been blessed to witness a sea change in the prospects for international environmental cooperation- but the hard work is yet to come.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-7646541803284186752009-03-22T05:36:00.000-07:002009-03-22T18:52:13.401-07:00Dealing with transboundary water pollution in ChinaMost water pollution by nature crosses boundaries; in China, incidents like <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/jiangsu-acid-leak-exposes-another-hole.html">February's acid leak in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Jiangsu</span></span></a> indicate the inability of local authorities to deal with contamination. A good recent post on water security by Ma Jun on <a href="http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2847">China Dialogue</a> reports that, on average, there's an environmental incident in China once every two days, 70% of which involve water pollution. A delegate to China's People's Political Consultative Committee highlighted the trans-boundary water pollution issue by calling for the development of a compensation system, a first step toward establishing clear liability for water polluters.<br /><br />The delegate, also the Vice-President of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Anhui</span></span> University, Wu <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Cunmei</span></span>, noted that it is impossible to prevent contaminated water from flowing through watersheds. The national government should, Wu said, quickly establish a dispute-resolution and compensation mechanism for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">transboundary</span></span> water pollution (see <a href="http://env.people.com.cn/GB/8964758.html">China Environment Report, in Chinese only</a>). <br /><br />As Wu noted, regions near the headwaters of river systems often garner economic benefits by polluting watersheds for downstream users, who must bear the costs themselves. This kind of "local protectionism," (<span><span class="show_c" id="zoom">地方保护主义)</span></span> Wu said, damages the whole national system for preventing water pollution, making it an imperative to develop new mechanisms for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">transboundary</span></span> dispute resolution and compensation.<br /><br />None of this is really news, but it's heartening to hear a delegate to one of China's important "two meetings" (两会) speak so <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">forcefully</span> about environmental protection, and to single out watersheds for the development of an <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">eco</span></span>-compensation framework. Many experts agree that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">eco</span></span>-compensation is particularly suitable for use in watersheds, where the benefits of clean water are clear for both upstream and downstream users (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/payment-for-ecosystem-services-in-china.html">previous post</a>). Providing local governments with a means to "sue" other jurisdictions might also provide a potent secondary-enforcement mechanism, by deterring areas that may be tempted to adopt lax enforcement.<br /><br />Nonetheless, creating a robust compensation and dispute-resolution system will be thorny. As long as local officials are rewarded chiefly for effecting economic growth, there will be strong incentives to "pass the cost along" by allowing industry to pollute with minimal enforcement and mitigation (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/environmental-enforcement-in-china.html">previous post</a>). Moreover, a compensation regime should be carefully designed to encourage watershed management, not just to compensate downstream users for pollution. It's difficult to include the benefits of, for example, preserving forest cover near river system headwaters in any compensation regime.<br /><br />Here's an opportunity for an enterprising <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">NGO</span></span> (or even friendly foreign government?) to step in and offer to provide expertise to the Chinese government in constructing a durable watershed pollution compensation and dispute resolution mechanism. As water scarcity increases and the pollution problem becomes more ingrained, China's leadership will surely be grateful for all the help they can get.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-25889624059601906852009-03-11T20:33:00.000-07:002009-03-11T21:18:18.872-07:00More mixed messages on climate as NPC ContinuesGiven the importance of China's annual National People's Congress (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">NPC</span>), it's worth expanding on <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/03/mixed-messages-on-environment-as.html">yesterday's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">pos</span></a>t to cover a few other signs of the direction China's climate policy will take in the coming year. <br /><br />Prime Minister Wen <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Jiabao</span> told the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">NPC</span> that China will continue its efforts to increase energy efficiency, thereby decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, Wen said, ""We will implement energy-conserving measures for power generators, boilers, automobiles, air-conditioners and lighting products" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/policies_announcements/2009-03/05/content_17378043.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Xinhua</span></a>). The official English-language news article covering Wen's speech also carried quotations from several government officials vowing that environmental protection efforts will continue despite the economic crisis. <br /><br />A <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/opinions/2009-03/05/content_17378460.htm">China Daily editorial</a> painted a similarly robust picture of China's efforts to reduce emissions, gushing that<br /> <p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;"></p><blockquote>Reducing carbon emissions by weaning industries off oil will not only "green the globe" but also spur growth, spark an employment boom and help combat climate change. And China is best poised to not only effect the new deal but also to reap the benefits of it.</blockquote><p></p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">The editorial even gave a nod to the <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/clintons-visit.html">positive atmosphere surrounding US-China climate cooperation</a> by claiming that "As US President Barack <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Obama's</span> administration pushes for an economy that provides both economic and environmental security, China can ride and contribute to the potential lush wave of inventions and initiatives." This kind of perspective is, of course, what <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">CGS</span></span> has always pushed for. </p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">One more positive piece of news comes from a member of China's People's Political Consultative Committee, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Zhang</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Guobao</span>. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Zhang</span>, noting that Obama has devoted a large portion of America's economic stimulus package to developing new energy sources, called for China should do the same. "If we continue not to take new energy seriously," <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Zhang</span> warned, "I predict that in another ten years we will be in the same situation as Japan" when it comes to that country's dependency on imported energy (see <a href="http://env.people.com.cn/GB/8949863.html"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Renmin</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Ribao</span>, in Chinese only</a>). </p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">On the other side of the coin, a recent editorial in China Daily exemplifies the old "don't blame China" school of thought when it comes to climate issues. Entitled "Don't blame China for the world's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">eco</span>-woes," the editorial complained that<br /></p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;"></p><blockquote> <p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">Critics still blame China as it builds new cities with modern homes, running water, sewage systems, transport infrastructure, schools and hospitals, just as their countries did. They blame China as it serves the needs of hundreds of millions of farmers moving from the land to the cities in the biggest urbanization program in human history. No nation has ever had to do this before, and the challenges are highly complicated.</p></blockquote><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;"></p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">There's some truth to this complaint (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html">previous post</a>), but the real <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">tragedy</span> is that anyone, either in China or abroad, still thinks of the climate issue as a blame game. We're all responsible for changing the planet's carbon balance (though admittedly to differing degrees), and we'll all bear the consequences. The fact is, times have changed and nobody, in China, the United States, or elsewhere, can build new cities without making them sustainable. <br /></p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">Nonetheless, this kind of retrograde thinking appears to be winning out when it comes to China's stance on climate. The leadership appears to be consumed with concerns over jobs, stability, and restive minorities. When it comes to the low-hanging fruit and the "general principle" of climate sustainability, Beijing appears to be committed. But when it comes to making hard decisions, and paying a price, the message appears much more mixed. <br /></p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;">Once again, it seems to <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">CGS</span></span> that foreign leadership will be crucial. The pieces cited above all reference Washington's actions in pushing green stimulus. If America can figure out how to drive economic growth with climate-sustainable features, you can bet that there will be plenty of receptive ears at next year's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">NPC</span>. <br /></p><p style="margin: 0px 3px 15px;"> <br /></p>Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-46197758101929715972009-03-10T19:33:00.000-07:002009-03-10T20:00:53.478-07:00Mixed messages on environment as National People's Congress convenesEvery March, China's National People's Congress (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">NPC</span>), the nation's highest legislative body, convenes in Beijing to ratify the decisions of the nation's leadership. It is often an occasion to announce major shifts in policy, and so it's an important context in which to consider discourse on environmental protection. On the basis of two admittedly incomplete measures, the message is very mixed: while official media continues to highlight the severity of environmental issues, the portion of China's economic stimulus package devoted to environmental protection has decreased. <br /><br />This week's China Daily includes a number of articles devoted to environmental issues, including one entitled "Innovation needed in alternative energy field," and another noting that "<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Sino</span>-US talks turning to action" on climate change. The former article editorialized that "developing a low-carbon economic is a must as China continues to industrialize, not only for the nation's energy security, but also as part of an urgent international responsibility to address global climate change." This language, from two professors of public administration at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Hunan</span> University, is a noticeable shift from the standard government position that tackling climate change should be a developed-nation task. The latter article, depicting joint US-China efforts to improve energy efficiency, emphasized the co-benefits that could result from greater collaboration on energy matters. In general, the message seemed to be that environmental sustainability must remain a central goal of government policy, and that China should see action on environmental issues as part of its responsibilities as an emerging global power. <br /><br />Sadly, this welcome news did not seem to be reflected where the rubber meets the road. According to <a href="http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/03/07/chinas-stimulus-package-pie-chart/">China Environmental Law Blog</a> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Caijing</span>, the percentage of China's economic stimulus package to be devoted to environmental efforts is set to decrease. The amount of stimulus money devoted to "sustainable environment" will decline by over 120 billion <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">RMB</span>, with most of that amount being redirected to social welfare spending. <br /><br />It's understandable to redirect stimulus money to ease the economic pain being faced by so many laid-off workers in China (and indeed, around the world). But this "readjustment" indicates just how difficult it will be for leaders around the world to implement green stimulus packages. As is so often the case, short-term economic considerations and long-term environmental sustainability stand at political odds. <br /><br />Nonetheless, international coordination and consultation on implementing green stimulus could help governments keep their stimulus packages relatively green. Because initiatives to create green jobs and expand clean energy have never been attempted at such large scales, sharing best practices is a natural way for governments to enhance international financial and environmental cooperation (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/sino-american-green-stimulus-or-natural.html">previous post</a>). <br /><br />Here's to hoping Beijing, Washington, and governments around the world can their acts together and push green stimulus packages even as legislators push narrow self-interest.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-64744445450414983092009-02-27T05:35:00.000-08:002009-02-27T05:36:56.961-08:00CGS on vacation<span style="font-style: italic;">CGS </span>will be on vacation all next week to attend the "Fulbright Research Forum" in Hong Kong. Please help keep us up to date on important events, reports, etc in the coming days.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-34684854353149138872009-02-27T04:56:00.000-08:002009-02-27T05:35:16.877-08:00Momentum on US-China climate cooperation builds; Tsinghua holds "Overcoming Obstacles to US-China Cooperation on Climate Change" SeminarFollowing <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/clintons-visit.html">Secretary of State Clinton's visit to Beijing</a>, Ken <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Lieberthal</span>, co-author of a landmark <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/future-of-us-china-climate-cooperation.html"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Brookings</span> Institution report</a> on US-China climate cooperation, headlined a seminar at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Tsinghua</span> University on overcoming obstacles to such cooperation. This post offers a brief re-cap of the seminar, and goes on to note some of the ripple effects of Clinton's visit. In general, it's fair to say there's a lot of momentum in US-China climate cooperation; the challenge will be to sustain it even as both countries plunge further into recession. <br /><br />Dr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Lieberthal</span> mainly elaborated on one of the report's main findings, that climate cooperation should be seen as central to the US-China relationship. Secretary Clinton, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Lieberthal</span> noted, raised the climate issue in almost every meeting she had during her visit to Beijing. Washington should sustain this emphasis, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Lieberthal</span> continued, and see bilateral climate cooperation as the motor for global action. US-China climate cooperation should in turn be part of a shift in the bilateral relationship which views China as a strategic partner on a range of global issues, as opposed to merely regional ones like North Korea. <br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Lieberthal</span> was also emphatic that Chinese leaders should understand that their willingness to offer concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions directly impacts Washington's ability to do the same; the chief opposition argument to US action is that it will make no difference unless China takes similar steps. Such political arguments also obscure real advantages in strengthening US-China climate collaboration. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Lieberthal</span> cited in particular the relative advantages of using China for clean technology demonstration projects: in America, a carbon capture and sequestration plant requires a 6-year permitting process; in China, the time period is less than 2 years.<br /><br />The reactions of Chinese panelists, including former People's Congress leader <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Cheng</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Siwei</span> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Tsinghua</span> professor <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Hu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Angang</span>, broadly fit under the "cautious optimism" paradigm (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/clintons-visit.html">previous post</a>). <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Cheng</span> agreed that trust and dialogue is essential, but went on to reiterate the <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">familar</span> talking points</a> regarding historical emissions, China's developing country status, and the "embedded carbon" in making exports for the West (this is clearly a spurious argument; see <a href="http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/02/26/west-blamed-for-chinas-economic-rise/">China Environmental Law on this</a>).<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Hu</span> was a bit bolder, noting that "If the US does not succeed [in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions], neither will China." <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Hu</span> also called climate change an integral consideration for 21-st century economic development policy, and called the creation of a green economy an opportunity for China to "leapfrog" the most carbon-intensive stages of economic growth. The US and China have shared dreams, said <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Hu</span>, including a "green dream." Perhaps most consequentially, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Hu</span> argued that China should see action on climate change as part of its responsibility as a global power and leader in the world. <br /><br />Such positivity was broadly, if more cautiously, echoed across the Chinese bureaucracy. The deputy chief of China's National Energy Administration told a US-China forum on energy efficiency that "The two countries could further cooperate on a wide range of areas in the development of economic and energy sectors against the background of economic globalization" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-02/27/content_17342565.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Xinhua</span></a>). China Daily issued a <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-02/27/content_17343146.htm">sunny report</a> on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Tsinghua</span> seminar, before concluding with a cautious quotation from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Cheng</span>: "Dialogues on climate change are in the interest of both China and the US, but each side should work out a plan to combat climate change according to different national conditions."<br /><br />Meanwhile, China's National Statistics Bureau announced that the nation's energy intensity fell 4.59% in 2008, slightly higher than predicted (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-02/27/content_17343696.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Xinhua</span></a>). While this is a step forward, the number more than anything else indicates the scale of the task confronting US-China climate cooperation. China Environmental Law has an <a href="http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/02/27/chinas-energy-efficiency-gains/">excellent post on this</a>, so <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">CGS</span></span> will do no more than to conclude by saying we must hope that the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Hu</span>-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Lieberthal</span> view of climate cooperation as a strategic and central issue is sustained over time. It really is nothing less than a test of both nation's ability to be responsible partners in the international community- in America's case, after eight years of reckless unilateralism, and in China's case, as part of coming to terms with becoming an economic giant.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-83399857144987987222009-02-25T20:12:00.000-08:002009-02-25T20:24:10.191-08:00Jiangsu acid leak exposes another hole in China's environmental enforcement apparatusComing right on the heels of northern China's severe drought, another environmental disaster has gripped newspaper headlines: "Toxic water scare leaves a sour taste" (see<a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/features_analyses/2009-02/24/content_17326856.htm"> China Daily</a>). Water supply to more than 200,000 residents of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Yancheng</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Jiangsu</span> province, was disrupted after carbolic acid was found to have contaminated the city's water system. Carbolic acid can damage the central nervous system as well as the kidneys and heart. <br /><br />Local officials claimed to have inspected the water supply and found nothing amiss, but reports from residents suggest a longer-term pattern of incompetence and denial. According to the article,<br /><br /><blockquote>Petitions calling for action by the government [to curb water pollution] also went unanswered, said fellow villager <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Zhou</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Weixiang</span>, who added: "The factory is said to have contributed a lot to the local tax revenue. We could do nothing about it."</blockquote><br /><br />None of this is terribly surprising. Local governments are often blamed for severe lapses in environmental monitoring and enforcement (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/environmental-enforcement-in-china.html">previous post</a>). But as one in a string of environmental disasters to hit China in recent months, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">CGS</span> </span>considers that the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Jiangsu</span> incident should persuade Beijing that it is right to be worried about environmental discontent in the Year of the Ox (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-china-environmental-cooperation-as.html">previous post</a>).Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-21943998718605584602009-02-24T18:48:00.001-08:002009-02-24T19:12:19.218-08:00Sino-American green stimulus; or, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Report: "Strengthening US-China Climate Engagement"The US-based environmental <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">NGO</span> Natural Resources Defense Council (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">NRDC</span>) has recently released a <a href="http://docs.nrdc.org/international/files/int_09021801a.pdf">report</a> on strengthening US-China climate "engagement." The report comes on the heels of similar reports issued by the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Brookings</span> Institution and the Asia Society (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/future-of-us-china-climate-cooperation.html">previous post</a>), and contains many of the same observations and recommendations. Nonetheless, the report frames US-China climate cooperation in a slightly different way, which deserves further commentary. <br /><br />More so than the other two reports, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">NRDC</span> observes that the US and China are taking parallel tracks when it comes to investing a large portion of their respective economic stimulus efforts in green efforts. This is new to both governments, and yet the objective, in terms of creating green jobs and expanding the use of green technologies, is remarkably similar. It only makes sense, then, for Washington and Beijing to coordinate the green components of their stimulus packages. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">NRDC</span>, for example, recommends the creation of a "green jobs forum" to share lessons learned (p 3). It's a good idea, and in principle there's no reason why there shouldn't be a high-level and wide-ranging discussion between the two governments on what works and what doesn't when it comes to green stimulus. Coordination between the two countries could also lead to synergistic investment in specific, highly promising areas of clean technology research and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">develelopment</span>.<br /><br />Of course, economic stimulus is politically charged in both countries, and there's a limit to how willing either government will be in disclosing failures to use public money to good effect. In the United States, Washington may take some hits from the political right for talking to China when many Americans are still hurting from the flight of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">manufacturing</span> across the Pacific. But high-level consultation and coordination between the American and Chinese green stimulus packages is still worth trying. <br /><br />The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">NRDC</span> report also suggests one other intriguing idea. Noting that China often lacks the capacity to accurately report its greenhouse gas emissions, the report recommends that the US offer technical assistance to bolster emissions monitoring capabilities (p 11). <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">CGS</span></span> is tempted to take this one step further, and argue that the US and China should work towards joint reporting of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">annual</span> national greenhouse gas emissions. <br /><br />But wait, you may say. Beijing would never go for that, and statistic ambiguity is a time-tested instrument in the government's toolkit. True. But think of the benefits: joint reporting would necessarily bind US and Chinese emissions reductions efforts together. Moreover, it's hard to think of a better way to build mutual trust in the climate arena than to commit to joint, transparent reporting. Finally, joint monitoring could help to bolster emissions data collection and monitoring in both countries, and enhance climate science cooperation. <br /><br />A coordinated stimulus and joint monitoring are medium-term objectives. In the meantime, several initial steps are of greater importance (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2009/02/clintons-visit.html">previous post</a>). But in the face of climate change, it's necessary to think boldly and strategically. In this vein, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">NRDC</span> report provides some enticing new food for thought.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-63382701889331239902009-02-24T02:14:00.000-08:002009-02-24T02:36:34.674-08:00Approval of foreign investment in China to be linked to environmental indexIn a notable step, China's Commerce Ministry announced late last week that approval of "foreign-funded enterprises" will now be based in part on an "environmental protection index" and a "land-use intensity index." According to <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/policies_announcements/2009-02/20/content_17309648.htm"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Xinhua</span></a>, the environmental index "will include capital input in the areas of environmental protection, annual sulfur dioxide emission and chemical oxygen demand." The land-use intensity index, meanwhile, "will include gross fixed-asset investment and the total area of land used, as well as a breakdown of how that land is used -- for example, for buildings, residential facilities or 'green' areas."<br /><br />This new regulation, announced jointly by the Ministry of Commerce (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">MOC</span>) and the Ministry for Environmental Protection (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">MEP</span>), requires foreign-funded enterprises to submit assessments on these factors prepared by local environmental protection departments. Again according to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Xinhua</span>, the regulation is intended to "tighten scrutiny of energy-intensive and polluting facilities funded by foreign investments." <br /><br />It's a little hard to read this particular regulation. Broadly, it seems like a promising step, but there are obvious difficulties with ensuring uniform enforcement of the regulation. The fact that local governments will prepare the environmental index assessments does nothing to address the <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/environmental-enforcement-in-china.html">rampant corruption</a> that usually attends foreign investment approval at the local level. Nonetheless, given the level of foreign investment in China, the regulation could have a significant impact in terms of forcing foreign investors to pay more attention to China's environmental regulations. The capital input criterion is a clear reference to China's efforts to create a low-resource-intensity economy. The land-use intensity requirement may also help to reduce tensions in areas where industrial development is eating up valuable farmland. At a deeper level, this regulation, and the coordination between <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">MOC</span> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">MEP</span>, seems to bode well for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">MEP's</span> stature relative to other, more established state ministries. <br /><br />On two points, the regulation is a little disturbing. Most importantly, it says nothing about greenhouse gas emissions, though this isn't surprising given <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html">China's hesitancy</a> to take any action that may disadvantage its own industry. Second, the regulation, in applying only to foreign-funded firms, carries a whiff of green protectionism. <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">CGS</span></span> would never, of course, argue that such firms are entitled to shirk Chinese environmental regulations, but one would hope that this regulation does not signal any less stringent enforcement of environmental regulations for state-owned enterprises or private domestic firms.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8761353107739013404.post-42081994723640526592009-02-22T20:12:00.000-08:002009-02-22T20:58:51.722-08:00Clinton's VisitUS Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets two thumbs up for her handling of the climate issue in Beijing. It's worth taking a little step back to think how far we've come in recent months. Just two months ago, the United States demonstrated its familiar reticence to take a leading role of climate at talks in Poznan (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/talks-begin-in-poznan-can-asia-change.html">previous post</a>). But when she arrived in Beijing, Clinton placed the climate issue front and center, telling China "we hope you don't make the same mistakes we made" on climate. She also made a smart move in framing the climate issue as one that threatens the security of both nations, saying "This not a matter of politics or morality or right or wrong,” he said. “It is simply the unforgiving math of accumulating emissions” (see <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/world/asia/22diplo.html?ref=world">New York Times</a>). Indeed, Clinton even went so far as to participate on a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">webchat</span>, asking China's 300 million <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Internet</span> users to "work together for a clean energy future" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-02/23/content_17318065.htm">China Daily</a>).<br /><br />China's response to this welcome overture has been one of cautious optimism. China's Foreign Minister pledged that the economic crisis would not derail the country's greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts, a welcome sign of confidence in the seriousness of the issue. ""The government's resolve to tackle climate change has not changed, and our actions have not weakened," the Minister said, before pledging that "We are willing to work together with the international community to push the Copenhagen talks forward and make sure they yield a positive result" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/policies_announcements/2009-02/20/content_17307696.htm">China Daily</a>). Elsewhere, however, China's government sought to emphasize the necessity of technology transfer if climate cooperation is to be enhanced. An official at the Ministry of Science and Technology was quoted as saying "China is glad to see that the US has started to take concrete action [on US-China climate cooperation]. But without funding and technology, cooperation would end up as empty talk" (see <a href="http://china.org.cn/environment/news/2009-02/23/content_17318608.htm">China Daily</a>). The official went on to reference <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Beijing's</span> familiar developing-country argument that it is unable to take on concrete <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">GHG</span> reduction targets (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/10/china-climate-change-and-climate.html">previous post</a>).<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Beijing's</span> hesitancy points towards the next step for a promising re-invigoration of US-China climate cooperation. The US and China must come to an agreement about technology transfer and financing the deployment of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">GHG</span> mitigation technology. Chinese academic <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Zhang</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Haibin</span> writes that "Hostility toward Communism excludes China from receiving official development aid from the United States, which could significantly hasten climate-change-related projects" (see <a href="http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/what-the-chinese-want-from-obama/">New York Times</a>), while a recent essay by Chinese environmental experts notes that international transfer of clean technologies remains underdeveloped (see <a href="http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2771">China Dialogue</a>).<br /><br />In sum, then, Clinton's push on climate can be considered a success. The real work, though, lies ahead. As <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Zhang's</span> statement indicates, Washington must build on its climate overture with a series of confidence-building measures to indicate its seriousness, including adopting binding emissions restrictions itself. It must also put its money where its mouth is on technology transfer- something that, particularly in the midst of economic crisis, is an <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">unmistakable</span> sign of conviction to tackle climate change through <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Sino</span>-American partnership. Two smaller steps will be crucial to achieving these larger goals. First, China and the US need to reaffirm and expand the dialogue on climate and energy established under the Strategic Economic Dialogue (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/12/new-us-china-ecopartnership-initiative.html">previous post</a>). Second, a joint task force should be formed at once to overcome the technical obstacles to technology transfer, most crucially intellectual property rights (see <a href="http://chinagreenspace.blogspot.com/2008/11/beijing-high-level-conference-on.html">previous post</a>).<br /><br />As these steps are taken, Washington should also make clear to China that it expects reciprocation. The climate and energy dialogue should state at the outset that the ultimate outcome of US-China climate cooperation must be for China to reduce its <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">GHG</span> emissions by a set amount, within the framework of an equitable global agreement that promotes sustainable economic development. All this lies ahead. But it's nonetheless a huge achievement to be underway on the road towards a <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">genuinely</span> sustainable future.Scott Moorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17877408213458632319noreply@blogger.com0