Developers agree a major correction in the mainland market is underway, with opinion divided on how long it will last. Photo: EPA

China's current property market downturn will probably last three years and eliminate a third of the players, the founder of a Hong Kong-listed mainland developer said yesterday.

His comments added fuel to an already heated debate about the industry's outlook given slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy.

"A problematic correction will probably take three years," said Tian Ming, chairman of Landsea, a green-tech developer based in Nanjing, Jiangsu province. He was the most pessimistic among six developers in a property forum panel in Hong Kong. "I am an honest man," he said.

If Tian's forecast proves correct, it will be China's longest property market correction since the global financial crisis in 2008. The industry is a major driver of the economy and it would impact more than 40 sectors.

"In the past 10 years, you could win as long as you were aggressive enough and were able to buy land and borrow money. It's different now," said Zhou Xin, chairman of mainland real estate service firm E-House (China) and sponsor of the forum.

"I see blood in the future. That is only normal and means the market is mature," he said.

The consensus among the industry is that the best days are over for the mainland's property market. But some developers anticipate the market could recover in the last quarter of this year with government assistance.

So far, some cities have relaxed policies to stimulate demand and the central bank urged lenders to speed up mortgage loan approvals.

Developers, including Tian, foresee no collapse of the once bubbly real estate market, as policymakers still have many cards to play in the short term and the country's urbanisation push will support housing demand in the next decade. But they all realise the need to sharpen their competitiveness in a fierce market consolidation.

A summary of all Chinese developers listed onshore and offshore by E-House showed they were ill prepared financially, with their leverage hovering at historically high levels.

The average net gearing ratio was 80 per cent at the end of last year, up from 63 per cent in 2012.

"Listed developers are facing rising pressure after they increased land spending in recent years and encountered growing inventories in some cities," Liu Zhifeng, a former vice-minister of housing, told the forum.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Developers facing 3-year slump as good times end

Many will fall, some will survive and a few will thrive. Chinese property markets like its counterpart in Hong Kong are risky but incredibly lucrative for those who can secure land at a steep discount to the market and can access to cheap capital. It's all about quanxi, corruption and timing!I do not feel bad for developers and their cronies falling out of this market.

bpoon1pc Jun 3rd 201411:23am

Property in China, for sure, is going to a downward trend across the whole country. Being in Shanghai now, the price of the top end apartment and house are coming down. Hangzhou is the worst and the price may fall by 40% or more as there is oversupply, under-demand, over-leverage with most manufacturers get exposed to property. Wenzhou is the worst. What should have happened in 4Q2008 will happen in 4Q2014 as the easy money pumped in the system in 2008/2009 will just delay the problem. When we include the properties held by corrupted officials, we can't imagine how fast the property price will drop after the meeting in Beijing before the end of the year. If you don't have property in China, just wait; if you do have a lot of property, tighten your seat belt, please.

hodfords May 30th 20145:18pm

For those who are quick to forget; in Q4 of 2008, many of the property developers in China were about to go bankrupt. The expansionary monetary policy in the US which led to expansionary monetary policy in China suddenly turned these ailing developers into thriving outfits. The big question mark is with virtually all of these property developers owned loosely by the state or by relatives of corrupt officials - which ones will be allowed to go and which ones not? And ensuing that; what will be the political ramifications?