Either way, bear in mind that Zune currently has a somewhat modest target, and it isn't to take over the MP3 player market. Think of it as the equivalent of the original Xbox. That was a successful project not because it was a serious threat to Sony but because it established Microsoft as a credible competitor.

If Microsoft does get its foot in the door with Zune -- which is far from certain -- then the attempt to take over the market comes with Zune III in about 2011-12.