Week 1 Rankings (2013): Top 40 Running Backs

by Ray Kuhn
The opening week brings a few interesting dilemmas for fantasy owners when it comes to the running back position. How do some of the reported early season timeshares factor into the rankings? How do injuries (i.e. Arian Foster) impact things? Which young running backs is in the best position to produce immediately? Let’s answer all those questions and more in our Week 1 rankings:

Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – at Detroit

Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs – at Jacksonville

Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – at NY Jets

CJ Spiller – Buffalo Bills – vs. New England

LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles – at Washington

Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens – at Denver

Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars – vs. Kansas City

Arian Foster – Houston Texans – at San Diego

Alfred Morris – Washington Redskins – vs. Philadelphia

Trent Richardson – Cleveland Browns – vs. Miami

Marshawn Lynch – Seattle Seahawks – at Carolina

Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans – at Pittsburgh

Steven Jackson – Atlanta Falcons – at New Orleans

David Wilson – New York Giants – at Dallas

Reggie Bush – Detroit Lions – vs. Minnesota

Matt Forte – Chicago Bears – vs. Cincinnati

Darren Sproles – New Orleans Saints – vs. Atlanta

Stevan Ridley – New England Patriots – at Buffalo

DeMarco Murray – Dallas Cowboys – vs. New York Giants

Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers – vs. Green Bay

Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins – at Cleveland

Daryl Richardson – St. Louis Rams – vs. Arizona

D’Angelo Williams – Carolina Panthers – vs. Seattle

Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders – at Indianapolis

Isaac Redman – Pittsburgh Steelers – vs. Tennessee

Eddie Lacey – Green Bay Packers – at San Francisco

Rashard Mendenhall – Arizona Cardinals – at St. Louis

Ryan Mathews – San Diego Chargers – vs. Houston

Ahmad Bradshaw – Indianapolis Colts – vs. Oakland

Montee Ball – Denver Broncos – vs. Baltimore

Chris Ivory – New York Jets – vs. Tampa Bay

Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints – vs. Atlanta

Shane Vereen – New England Patriots – at Buffalo

BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Cincinnati Bengals – at Chicago

Danny Woodhead – San Diego Chargers – vs. Houston

Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals – at Chicago

Ronnie Hillman – Denver Broncos – vs. Baltimore

Bilal Powell – New York Jets – vs. Tampa Bay

Jacquizz Rodgers – Atlanta Falcons – at New Orleans

Vick Ballard – Indianapolis Colts – vs. Oakland

Thoughts:

Until proven otherwise, Adrian Peterson has to be the top running back on any rankings. Last season he was a sneeze away from 2,000 yards, and it took him about the half the year to find his groove. This season he looks to be fully healthy and between the loss of Percy Harvin and the continued struggles of Christian Ponder, Minnesota’s offense will fully revolve around Peterson.

Another team where the running back will be the focus of the offense is in Buffalo. No matter what a rookie quarterback will be starting week one, so CJ Spiller will be the focal point of the game plan. Spiller will catch the ball out of the backfield and also can break big rushing plays. New England’s defense is not the strongest and even when the Bills fall behind, Spiller will still get the ball consistently.

I am intrigued to see what the new look Eagles offense looks like under Chip Kelly. What I do know is that LeSean McCoy should be seeing the ball plenty both as a rusher and receiver. Last season was obviously a down year for the running back, but based just on the preseason he looks fully recovered. The offense will move fast, and I think Kelly will do a good job of finding McCoy in space giving him the opportunity to make things happen.

Steven Jackson is another running back looking to recover from a down season. I am thinking that the move to Atlanta will serve Jackson well. The Falcons are clearly a much better offense than that of the Rams, so there should be plenty of red zone opportunities and chances for him to find the end zone. I don’t think he will get that many targets out of the backfield, as the Falcons have Jacquizz Rodgers for that, but there should be enough chances for Jackson to control the ball and score some touchdowns.

While it was a tough break for Andre Brown in the last preseason game, it also meant that David Wilson’s value just went up. Prior to Brown’s broken leg, Wilson was in a timeshare and had more value as a receiver and third down back. Now the second year running back will be a three down back and a valuable part of the Giants’ offense. The big play potential is what puts him ahead of some of the other more “stable” or proven running backs like Frank Gore and Stevan Ridley for the opening week.

I know Arian Foster has fallen in drafts this year, but on a week-to-week basis he has to be at the top of your list. He appears to be healthy entering the season, but it remains to be seen how “ready” he is for the season to start. There is also the concern of what type of timeshare Foster will be in with Ben Tate to start the season. Perhaps after this week we will have a clearer picture of what to expect.

Darren McFadden and Ryan Matthews are two talented running backs. Until this season, both were being drafted near the top of drafts, but health issues and poor performance have greatly reduced their value entering this season. While they are healthy to start the year, it might be the time to get some value out of them before the nagging injuries take hold. Take advantage while you can.

Before the preseason started there was some optimism surrounding Chris Ivory. Then he got injured in the preseason, and now we are left to wonder what to make of the Jets’ running back situation. The likely guess here is that Ivory will carry the ball on the first two downs and Bilal Powell will be the third round back. What we now need to see is how that impacts their respective fantasy values. I give the slight edge to Ivory this week, but in PPR formats they might be a little more even.

Denver is one team where we really don’t know what to expect out of the running back position. I think Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno will all have value this week, with perhaps Ball getting the most carries. Moreno might get the most receptions, just because of his experience, and the fact that Hillman had some fumbling problems in the offseason. That said, none of them are more than a FLEX option in the opening week.

BenJarvus Green Ellis can control the clock for the Bengals and keep the chains moving. However, for big plays and receptions out of the backfield, look no further than rookie Giovani Bernard. I think Bernard will be eased into the offense at the beginning of the season, and as the season progresses his value will increase. That keeps him suppressed on the rankings this week, but he could quickly rise.

A combination of a 2 QB keeper league and trying to peak late in the season, hence why I only have 4 guys eligible for flex in a 10 team, 8 bench league. On my bench and candidates for flex I have Pryor, Geno and Bradford at QB, Ball, Hillman, Bell and Gio at RB and Gordon and Little at WR.

I definitely agree with you on Gio, especially considering literally everything about BGE, but Week 1 is going to be interesting no matter who I start at flex.

I know this goes against Ray’s rankings, but I would actually go with Bernard this week. The Bears run defense was very good last season, meaning they could go more pass oriented (and therefore more playing time for Bernard).

In Denver, while Ball could get the most touches, it’s far from a guarantee. He needs to battle two other RB, as well as three WR and an emerging TE for touches. That’s hard to count on.

My logic with Ball, is that he will get the most touches, and I’m a little more curious as to what Bernard’s early season role will be. I think they will ease him into it, and Law Firm might be a touchdown vulture. I could see Ball getting 20 carries and a touchdown depending on how the game goes. Bernard probably has more upside, but at least for this week i’m more comfortable with Ball personally. Although it is close and there is some preference involved.

Interesting quote from Ball courtesy of Mike Garafalo of Fox Sports, just to add some fuel to the debate:

“My problem is I’m coming from Wisconsin, a power school, and I had 900 carries in four years. Whenever I was out on the field, I was getting the ball a majority of the time,” Ball told FOX Sports this week. “But with this offense and No. 18…”

I definitely wouldn’t freak out, as any player could get hurt at any time (unfortunately). If you are completely uncomfortable I would shop him around, but I wouldn’t pull the trigger unless you get an equally elite RB in return (Charles, Rice, Spiller, etc.)

What are your thoughts on Lamar Miller? The dolphins are still saying Thomas is just as good and will get his reps. I’ve been trying to sell him but nobody is biting. I’m getting a little worried… He is only my flex option but my other options are Stevie Johnson and Mike Williams so he’s clearly my best flex play.

Mendenhall over Bradshaw because I think he might be more healthy. I would think about giving the nod to Shorts though because someone has to catch the ball there, and I’m guessing they will be trailing