About two weeks before drafts, I try and pick out 10 guys each year as my target Busts / Stay Away in Fantasy Football. It could be people are discounting the changes that have happened for the player – coaching changes, players coming / going, injuries, different offensive systems. But whatever it is, something has clearly changed for the worst for the player.

Running Back

Beanie Wells RB Arizona Cardinals – ADP 32nd overall

Normally when a team looks to be more focused on the running game that would be good for the #1 RB on the depth chart. My feeling is that Hightower and Wells will be splitting more carries to take the load off Leinart. Also, with Boldin gone the WR corp has taken a bit of a hit. AZ coach knows that Wells is brittle and will have to rotate both guys. The RB3 and RB4 on AZ will be getting some play here also in deeper leagues. Wells should get his pts, but he wont be the stud you expect at his current ADP.

Jamaal Charles RB Kansas City Chiefs – ADP 35th overall

The hottest RB in the 2nd half of 2009 is now starting to see his value drop. The signing of Thomas Jones and the addition of Charlie Weis make Charles a guy to stay away from in 2010. Weis’ offenses don’t emphasize a workhorse running back and Jones is going to get most of the goal line carries. Charles still should have value in PPR leagues with him getting a lot of screens in this offense. His ADP was around 10-12 and its down to mid 30s already.

Brandon Jacobs RB NYG – ADP 54th overall

Jacobs looked like he was going to be a stud coming out of college and was tailored made for that Giants power running game. But Jacobs is almost too big to continue the pounding he takes week in and week out. The durability issue along with Bradshaw being named the starter really deflate his value. While not completely sold on Bradshaw staying healthy either, the winner might be Danny Ware who you also need to keep an eye on.

Reggie Bush RB NO – ADP 66th overall

News of Lynell Hamilton being out for the year might have solidified Bush a little more here. Pierre Thomas is now 100 pct healthy and the #1 RB on the depth chart. The issue with Bush is durability, but also the off field issues with USC / Kim Kardashian. The Saints could go to more 3 and 4 receiver sets and phase Bush out this year while he becomes a free agent after the year. Marshawn Lynch might be a trade option for the Saints as well.

Wide Receiver

Steve Smith WR NYG – ADP 42nd overall

Putting a lot of stock into Nicks becoming an elite WR this year, along with Smith overperforming in 2009. Also, Giants look to run the ball more with a 3 headed running attack.

Chad Ochocinco WR CIN – ADP 43rd overall

Remember this – Stay away from the Bengals in Fantasy Football this year. From Palmer to Benson to all the WRs the chemistry issues could become a problem very early in the season and divide a locker room.

Hines Ward WR PIT – ADP 59th overall

Aging #1 WRs will kill you every year in fantasy football. Mike Wallace will step into the #1 WR role by seasons end plus with Big Ben being out the first 4 weeks, Steelers are going to lean on Mendenhall a lot in 2010.

Vincent Jackson WR SD – ADP 60th overall

Staying away from suspended players in 2010 – time away from the offense, plus needing a few weeks to get back into the groove makes Jackson a bad value pick in 2010.

Braylon Edwards WR NYJ – 87th overall

Will he step up knowing his contract is up? Rather own Cotchery.

TJ Houshmanzadeh WR SEA – 88th overall

Another aging #1 WR in a terrible offense. Seattle needs to rebuild and WR will be a starting point next year.