America’s self-medication preferences may be making a major long-term shift. In celebration of 4/20, Cowen analyst Vivien Azer took a look at what could be a coming cyclical upswing for marijuana and a cyclical downswing for alcohol. According to Azer, what’s good for the marijuana business is bad for the alcohol business.

Analyst Commentary

“Of the 5 long-term alcohol cycles that we have seen in terms of per capita alcohol consumption since alcohol prohibition was lifted (and cannabis prohibition was implemented), the latter 3, since 1980, show a notable inverse correlation with cannabis trial and use,” Azer explained.

Recent data suggests the United States may be entering a sixth cycle in which marijuana becomes the preferred option for many Americans.

Azer said cycles in vice markets are often lead by younger Americans. In the past seven years, alcohol use among Americans aged 18–25 is down 2.5 percent, while marijuana use in the same age group is up 4.6 percent.