It seems warming temperatures and a break in storm fronts could leave the Front Range high and dry for the holiday. Even still, the National Weather Service in Boulder has mined hundreds of years of weather records to determine the probability of Denver having a white Christmas.

According to records beginning in 1900, when snow depth measurements began, there is a 38 percent chance of having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

But if you’re a white Christmas purist, and having a white Christmas means snow actually falling on Christmas Day, the odds drop to 14 percent. It has snowed on only 19 Christmas Days since 1882, when snowfall measurements began.

If you recall, last year was one of those 19 times. Snow began falling late in the afternoon on Christmas 2014 and continued through the night. By midnight, 3.4 inches had officially been recorded at Denver International Airport — the third-most snow to fall on the day since 1882.

Denver has yet to see a major snowstorm on Christmas Day, according to NWS records. The most snow to fall on Dec. 25 was 7.8 inches in 2007. The most snow to be on the ground on Christmas Day, however, came the day before when 24 inches fell during the massive Christmas Eve Blizzard of 1982.

And for those bemoaning the thought of snow on Christmas, remember back to 2005 when temperatures reached a balmy 69 degrees.

Diana Shukis cleans the sidewalk in front of her Boulder home on April 23, 2013. Originally from Las Vegas, this is the first time she has ever shoveled snow. (Photo By Joe Amon, The Denver Post 2013 file)

This week opened with Tax Freedom Day — April 21. That is the day when the average person has earned enough to pay all their taxes for the year and can begin earning money for themselves.

In Denver, we look forward to Snow Freedom Day: The day when it is finally safe to go ahead and put the snow shovel in the shed (instead of a corner of the porch), and put the snow boots and heavy coats deeper into the closet.

April 26 is not quite that day, but it is a good passage point, because April 26 is the average date of the last measurable snowfall in Denver.

(Pause for cheers and groans depending on your hobbies and likes.)

Andrew Garcia with Jake’s Installers Fence and Landscaping shovels out the ice as he helps Boulder Police officer Steven Cast move a motorist stuck in the snow on 14th Ave on April 23, 2013 in Boulder. (Photo By Joe Amon, The Denver Post 2013 file)

That is a far cry from the latest recorded snow, of course. It has snowed in June in Denver, as long-time residents know. Officially, the latest snowfall in Denver was June 12, 1947.

We also should note, however, that snow has fallen in May in three of the past four years. Last year snow fell in May 2. It also fell on May 11 in 2011 and May 12 in 2010.

With rising temperatures arriving on the heels of nearly of foot of new snow Friday in the high country, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued a Special Avalanche Advisory through the weekend.

The advisory, in effect until Sunday evening, urges extra caution for those traveling in the Summit County, Sawatch, Front Range and Grand Mesa zones. Temperatures in areas zones should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s by Sunday.

“Warm temperatures following a significant storm are often a dangerous combination that results in increased avalanche activity,” the advisory says. “Some of these slides will have the potential to step down deep into the snowpack resulting in a very large and potentially deadly avalanche.”

According to the CAIC, new snow followed by higher temperatures has caused several avalanches during the past several weeks.

“Travel cautiously this weekend and do not let spring fever lead you into making poor decisions,” the advisory concludes.

An avalanche Friday afternoon on Berthoud Pass buried three cars and closed U.S. 40 overnight. On Wednesday, a snowmobliler on Sharkstooth Peak near Durango was fully buried and remains missing. The victim has not been located, but is presumed dead by the CAIC due to the nature of the avalanche.

A total of eight people have been killed in avalanches this season in Colorado.

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The advisory, which expires Saturday, says new snow and heavy winds on top of weak layers have increased the possibility of large avalanches.

“New snow totals are in the 3 to 6 inch range with west and northwest winds in the 10 to 40 mph range and guts near 70 mph. The strong winds extend down below treeline on the east side of the range. Wind Slab avalanches will be the most common avalanche problem today,” the advisory says.

“If you trigger an avalanche in the new snow, it could step down to a deeper weak layer and release a much more dangerous avalanche.”

While avalanche danger is still technically labeled “considerable,” the center warns that conditions are trending towards “high” and those venturing into the backcountry over the next few days should be extra cautious.

The warning notes that recent weather conditions and loading events have produced some of the largest avalanches the center has seen all season. Last week, an explosive-triggered avalanche on Loveland Pass was over 3 feet deep and 600 feet wide.

Mike Weed shovels snow outside his home in Littleton, Jan. 4, 2014. He said, “if it’s going to be winter I’d rather see it snow… I’d rather be in the mountains skiing in it.” (Craig F. Walker, The Denver Post)

As far as snowstorms go, what is hitting the Denver metro area this weekend is middling at best. (I am still waiting for a big one. I consider “Big One” to be 15 inches, and we haven’t one of those in Denver since February 2012 … at 15.9 inches. And even that one fell short of panicked predictions at the time.)

Most injuries — 34 percent — are to the lower back. More seriously, that study found that cardiac-related injuries during snow removal accounted for ALL of the more than 1,600 snow removal deaths reported during those 16 years.

The Consumer Reports piece also has some shoveling tips, including the reminder to shovel early and often. Try to shovel while the snow is light and powdery.

Also:
— Bend your knees.
— Keep your back as straight and vertical as possible and stand up.
— Keep your hand close to the scoop, which makes the load seem lighter.
— Take small amounts of snow.
— Do not throw the snow over your shoulder or to the side. That twisting motion can stress your back.
— PACE YOURSELF. Take breaks and rehydrate.

— Lighter weight means easier lifting, a rigid shovel is best and a cheap shovel won’t be great. Expect to spend $30 or $35.
— A wood handle is handsome but heavy, metal is cold, and plastic or fiberglass is often just right.
— D-handled grip is best.
— Go for a sturdy scoop. Metal is generally more rigid than plastic but heavier. Steel on the leading edge can extend a shovel’s life but scratch a delicate surface such as decking.
— Finally, the Digest suggests going with more than one shovel for different situations.

The most snow Colorado saw from Friday’s autumn snowstorm was about a foot that fell around Steamboat Springs. Official weather stations in town recorded as much as 11.6 inches.

About 400 miles to the northeast, in the small town of Lead, South Dakota, the same storm system brought more than triple that amount. Upwards of 43 inches of snow had fallen in Lead by 7:30 p.m. Friday.

I have been hearing lots of horror stories from people who had to drive Friday night — especially to the north or to the east. This is no blizzard (Or, for the Weather Channel converts, we will say “Virgil” is no blizzard). In Denver, it is just a good old-fashion middle-of-the-road snowstorm. And a much needed one.

But needing the moisture doesn’t mean we need accidents like this scary one posted on YouTube, which closed the interstate north of the Metro Area near Johnson’s Corner (WARNING — sound is very loud):

So, once again we have experienced several days of watchful anticipation as the storm that the clever folks at The Weather Channel have named Triton heads toward Denver. (Triton is a sea god, son of Poseidon — which makes him a half brother of Percy Jackson.)

The up, then down, then up again National Weather Service forecast now calls of 8-14 inches. Channel 7 is going with that. 9News currently has it down for 1-3 on Friday night and 5-9 on Saturday, so 6-12 inches. Fox 31 still has 6-8 inches, more along the line of Thursday night’s NWS forecast. Brendan’s weather and Josh Larson at coloradowx are joining forces again and will have their forecast later this afternoon.

UPDATE: Josh and Brendan going for 6-12 inches at this point. Again, temperatures could be key.

AND UPDATE: Ed Greene at Channel 4 going for it: Station tweeting “up to 18 inches downtown.” ANDFURTHER UPDATE: About 8:30, Channel 4 backtracked — a lot — and went all the way down to 4 to 10 inches.

Weather Channel, by the way, going with the very vague “more than 6 inches.”

Bottom line is that everyone knows that the temperature and the exact path of the system will decide what we get. Denver is a small part of a big state being crossed by a bigger weather system.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department has apologized for the fact that thousands of people with the WEA alert on their mobile devices were awakened at 4:18 a.m. to be informed there was a blizzard warning coming in north El Paso County on Saturday morning. From now on, they will wait until 8 a.m. before beeping folks if the storm is still 12-24 hours away.

Snow along a fence near the Cherry Creek bike path on February 21, 2013. More more snow is expected for Sunday,Feb. 23.

Starting last evening, you could sense the excitement as the models and computers switched into lockstep, calling for more snow. Not more snow on the Plains. No. More snow for Denver.

A little after 11 a.m. Saturday, the National Weather Service finally bowed to the flow and added the metro area to the Winter Weather Advisory, upping the expected totals for the city to 6-10 inches. (The previous Blizzard Watch for the southern Front Range and Interstate 70 drivers continues.)

UPDATE: Later in the afternoon they upped the advisory to a winter storm warning.

Although, as always, the situation is in flux, our friends over at coloradowx.com now have the possibility of 9 inches or more or snow at 20 percent. Last night, the chance of more than 8 inches was only 10 percent.

Last time was had more than 10 inches was the 15.9 inches officially recorded last Feb. 2-4. We need it even more now than we did then.

It seems strange that everyone in the Denver area is so excited about the possibility of 4-7 inches of real snow (maybe even 8!), with cheers resounding across social media. Strange but completely understandable.

As of last weekend, the city was barely above 50 percent of the usual snowfall for this stage of the winter. And it seemed like less. Every once in a while there has been a dusting or some sort but the rest of the time the drought just continues … with trees growing thirstier and even some cracks in the ground.

I am not looking forward to driving in the snow, but it is a sacrifice well worth making for the common good!

Meanwhile, The Denver Post will be keeping track of this storm — the edge of what The Weather Channel is calling “Q” — go the the live blog on our home page and don’t forget to send your photos.

Forecast Colorado is your place for the latest breaking weather news for Denver and Colorado, featuring the latest forecasts, road conditions and closures — with an occasional detour into meterological science, trivia and oddities.