Sill, what do you think of DET. I am thinking of playing them simply based on motivation. An article came out from an unknow GM calling out the DET GM/Coach and players basically saying that DET was overrated. While I agree with the unnamed GM, I think this will be a motivation point for DET coming off a bye, any thoughts?

I'm higher on the Eagles than I probably should be, but that said I think the line oddsmakers set on this game is very fair. If I had to lean one direction it would be on Detroit. But that said, the Eagles have a formidable pass defense and when you play against the Lions that's all you have to defend. Tough call here, I'm most likely passing.

I know a lot of cappers here are on the Giants. Do you have an opinion on that game? Something about the line is making my gut twitch...

I posted some stats on the Giants defense on page 1. They're not very good.. and they're on the road against the highest rated QB in the NFL with a great running game and modern NFL vertical threats at WR and TE. Not to mention it's a revenge game for the 9ers. I don't know how you can bet on the Giants in this spot. But I'm probably not going to play it. All the statistical edges are in San Fran's favor though.. hard to ignore that.

Silly what do you think about seattle +3.5 dogs at home against the pats? Theyve been playing dominant defense at home but just worried they cannot get any points up..still your model shows they should be +0.5

Silly what do you think about seattle +3.5 dogs at home against the pats? Theyve been playing dominant defense at home but just worried they cannot get any points up..still your model shows they should be +0.5

Here's the thing, Seattle is hard enough to play on the road as it is.. now they have a defense that is a statistical 'dream team' without the big name players (like the cough-cough Philadelphia Eagles). And Seattle can live up to that title. However, the Patriots offense is clearly one of - if not - the best in the NFL. It's versatile, it's deep with play makers, and it's fast. It's a defensive nightmare. My models show some value on Seattle - and you shouldn't be surprised by this - the Patriots are a very public team and people are not willing to buy into Russell Wilson and some no name defenders on a small market team. A fair line is probably closer to PK with Seattle maybe a hair underdog. However, betting on line value alone is not a wise practice in the NFL. Anyone can fade the public as they say when the line is inflated for one team or another. To be successful you have to filter these results. Is the Patriots offense REALLY a team you want to betting against? Is Russell Willson REALLY capable of beating Bill Belichick? I just don't have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks when I think about this game like that. It's probably best to stay away from the Elite teams in the NFL and the Patriots are definitely one of them in my mind. I'll likely be a specator in this game. But like I said, there's no denying the line value is at least a couple points in Seattle's favor.

Here's the thing, Seattle is hard enough to play on the road as it is.. now they have a defense that is a statistical 'dream team' without the big name players (like the cough-cough Philadelphia Eagles). And Seattle can live up to that title. However, the Patriots offense is clearly one of - if not - the best in the NFL. It's versatile, it's deep with play makers, and it's fast. It's a defensive nightmare. My models show some value on Seattle - and you shouldn't be surprised by this - the Patriots are a very public team and people are not willing to buy into Russell Wilson and some no name defenders on a small market team. A fair line is probably closer to PK with Seattle maybe a hair underdog. However, betting on line value alone is not a wise practice in the NFL. Anyone can fade the public as they say when the line is inflated for one team or another. To be successful you have to filter these results. Is the Patriots offense REALLY a team you want to betting against? Is Russell Willson REALLY capable of beating Bill Belichick? I just don't have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks when I think about this game like that. It's probably best to stay away from the Elite teams in the NFL and the Patriots are definitely one of them in my mind. I'll likely be a specator in this game. But like I said, there's no denying the line value is at least a couple points in Seattle's favor.

Thanks, I agree with the fact that NE has one of the best offenses in the game, which always worries me betting against them. As you say I will now lay off this game and keep looking

You hit the mail on the head with this Hawks - Pats game. We want to go Seattle, but why bang your head against the wall vs an elite team?Brady may only need 17 or 20 points to beat the conservative Russell Wilson offense.

si1ly, 1st time poster on any of ur threads, just read through all 4 pages and u seem to have some really good data on games. Im looking for sort of a come back this Sunday and if ATL hit i might have to make another large warger on the GB and Hou game, can I please get ur input on this game. Thanks in advance.

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