football

While we have a weak cold front to the north Friday night, high pressure will be in control of the Great Lakes for the weekend. It looks to be a perfect fall football day! Typical fall in the mitten - you'll want layers as we start the day cool, warm up nicely in the afternoon, and get a little chilly at night. Expect some light winds out of the SW. Get the crockpot and brewskis ready! Let's get a win out there guys!

Tailgating

If you're up and at 'em early you may see some fog. It'll be patchy, but could reduce visibilities quickly if you're out picking up the last minute bag of ice or bottle of hot sauce - just give yourself a couple extra minutes to do so. It will also be chilly! Temps to start the day will be around 40 degrees, with a light northwesterly wind. Without many clouds, sun will let the fog burn off, and begin to warm us up! By mid-morning, we'll be up around 50, and we'll be approaching 60 degrees for that lunchtime tailgate. Winds will shift during the first part of the day, out of the WSW mid-morning, and SW by the time we're heading into the afternoon, remaining around 5-10mph (a light breeze that would blow about some loose paper and leaves). Plenty of sunshine for tailgating - can't ask for much better!

Kickoff

Lots of sun for the kick-off! You may want the hat or the sunglasses for this game, rather than leaving them in the car. 63 degrees for the start, and the low 60s is where our highs will end up for the day. We'll have a few clouds here and there heading throughout the first half, with SW winds right around 10mph.

Halftime

Down a degree or two by that halftime show, so still plenty comfortable with lots of sunshine. Winds will stay steady, holding at 10mph out of the SW.

Post-Game

Dipping just below that 60 degree mark as you walk out of the gates - smiling from a great win! If you're headed out to dinner, you may want the jacket - or walk a little faster back to the car/home - because temps will continue to drop off without much cloud cover. What will help is that southerly wind flow. Mid 50s for the dinner-time hours, and into the 40s for the late-night, hitting 45 for last call. That little bit of a breeze (SW around 5mph) will add a chill that'll have it feeling like 40. Go Blue!!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

Does anyone know if we have the longest stretch in college football without a punt or kick return for a TD? My understanding is our last was Stonum against ND in 2009. We had a blocked punt returned slightly more recent but I was wondering about an unblocked punt or kick return.

I want to really understand how historic this will be when Peppers runs one back!

Bud Goode (now deceased) might have been the first stats guy to look at data and the NFL. He dates to 1959. He believed (eventually) that “The single most meaningful independent statistic in pro football is Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential.” I have been looking at this for over a decade and believe that net YPPA provides the best sort of team quality. Many others disagree, and use a variety of data in their models. The thing is, when I look at these sorts at the end of a season, net YPPA still tends to evaluate teams “better” (holistic, to some extent, I agree) than any single or multiple algorithms. Well, believe or not, here is the current taxonomy, with data taken from Ed Feng’s The Power Rank. The NCAA (erroneously) lumps sacks in with rushing yards and Ed puts them in the right places. I note that Ed doesn’t agree with me on this (he is a PHD on point, I am just a second rate lawyer). Caveat.

1. OSU +2.83

2. UM +2.72

3. Northwestern +2.30

4. Iowa +1.83

5. Wiscy +1.69

6. MSU +1.43

7. PSU +1.22

8. Rutgers +0.50

9. Indy +0.48

10. Illini +0.40

11. Minny +0.33

12. Nebraska -0.50

13. Purdue -0.65

14. MD (20/20) -0.97

Other warnings. Limited data to this point in time. But, there are enough trials to begin to push relevance. A bigger issue is SOS. I have never done it but I suppose one could use Sagarin (or other measure) to adjust these numbers.

Over the years a multiplier of 5 tends to fit with turnover neutral outcomes and not adjusting for home fields. That is, a multiplier of “5” has tended to fit the measure to points.

So, let’s look at UM and NU. UM is plus .42. Adjusting (via Sagarin) for SOS (UM’s is 4% stronger) so call the delta .4386. Times 5 is 2.19 points. Home field? I might say about 4 in this one, unless we get the O’Neill crew (all bets off). I don’t know if anyone has studied college HF advantages, other than assigning an arbitrary “3”. So, in my mind, in a TO neutral game I like UM by 6.

Graham Glasgow made some poor decisions with alcohol and is paying the piper for it, but not in the way you would expect. Instead of suspension or other conventional methods of punishment, Harbaugh made him move in with his Grandma.