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There is talk among those with ties to Jon Gruden that the former Super Bowl-winning head coach will seriously weigh a return to the sideline following the completion of this season.

If so, then it is interesting that Gruden, of all people, provided a voice of reason earlier this week.

Gruden, the man a contingent of Chargers fans believe could come in and not only lead their team to a Super Bowl but fix City Hall’s budget crisis and probably get a new stadium built downtown and on the Chula Vista waterfront, in his role as ESPN commentator on the "Monday Night Football" telecast said:

“Be careful what you ask for. If you don’t like Norv (Turner), you’re going to have a hard time finding someone who can do what he can do.”

Funny thing is, Chargers President Dean Spanos was already familiar with the philosophy, which is why he continues to struggle with what he must do at season’s end if his team does not make a run to the playoffs.

Spanos has hired four head coaches as Chargers president, and the only one that had a winning season in his first year with the team was Norv Turner.

Yes, Spanos is disappointed, frustrated and deeply concerned about the direction of his franchise. Those familiar with his thinking say it is a virtual certainty Turner will be fired if he fails to duplicate the miracle of the 8-8 ’08 — wherein the Chargers came back from three games down with four to play to win the AFC West — or at least get themselves to the brink by being alive come the Jan. 1 finale at Oakland.

But Spanos is also said to be waiting until the season is finished to finalize his plans for Turner and General Manager A.J. Smith.

As he does so, it is appropriate, if not a little bit of premature speculation, to wonder just what effect a coaching change would have.

History says, not much right away … and maybe not much ever.

For every Jim Harbaugh (10-2 so far in his first year as head coach in San Francisco), there are several of Steve Spagnuolo (10-34 in three seasons with St. Louis).

Of the 56 head coaching changes in the NFL between 2002 and ‘10, only 16 of the new coaches had winning records in their first full season and just 13 made the playoffs in that first season.

The average first-year record of those coaches was 7-9.

Nine of those coaches made it to the Super Bowl since being hired, and six of them won.

Gruden, Bill Callahan (Oakland) and Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis) went to the Super Bowl in their first season in charge of new teams. Gruden’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl XXXVIII in San Diego after the 2002 season.

Conversely, 10 of the 15 current head coaches hired between 2008 and ’10 have losing records since being hired.

While the likes of Gruden, Dungy and Bill Cowher may seem enticing, of the 12 coaches who have won a Super Bowl and gone on to coach another team, not a single one has won it all with two different teams.

Jeff Fisher, who coached the Tennessee Titans in their Super Bowl XXXIV loss and is known to be interested in a possible Chargers opening, would have a daunting task overcoming history.

Among the five coaches to take two different teams to a Super Bowl, only Don Shula and Dick Vermeil won a Super Bowl after losing the title game the first time around. Dan Reeves took two different teams to a Super Bowl, losing four times.

The coach who might finally bring the first Super Bowl title to San Diego doesn’t necessarily have to be a proven winner.

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Of the 32 current head coaches in the NFL, 25 are still in their first stints as a head coach. Among current coaches, just Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin were head coaches with other teams before winning a Super Bowl with their current team.

So just making the change doesn’t ensure change.

League sources have said over the past two weeks that if Turner is fired he will be in high demand as an offensive coordinator and his availability could even prompt teams to drop current coordinators.

Smith is also predicted to have multiple opportunities should he be jettisoned.

All sources – personnel people and agents -- spoke on the condition of anonymity.

It is believed Smith will be a candidate when the Oakland Raiders hire a general manager job and also be in line for possible job openings in St. Louis and Miami.

Raiders President Amy Trask and owner Mark Davis, according to sources, will consult with former Raiders coach and broadcaster John Madden and former Green Bay Packers General Manager Ron Wolf. The latter is said to be pushing Reggie McKenzie, the Packers director of football operations. But Smith is on the Raiders’ radar, and sources say he and McKenzie will both be candidates.

Just this week, Smith’s name was associated by some in league circles with the possible job opening in Miami.

Dolphins General Manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano have two years remaining on their contracts, and there has been speculation that a strong finish to the season will save one or both of their jobs. But while owner Stephen Ross is said to have softened in his desire for a big-name, big-money coach, the availability of Gruden could rekindle that interest.

Just a thought: It is well-known throughout the league that Gruden and Smith have a close relationship.

Or maybe Ross will decide to heed the general advice Gruden dispensed Monday night.