A big win for a big new man

Jacob Zuma has proved his popularity; his party is unbeatable for now

DESPITE scandals, a leader dogged by allegations of corruption and the worst split in its ranks for nearly 50 years, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) chalked up another runaway victory in South Africa's general and provincial elections on April 22nd. Its share of the vote fell slightly, from 70% in 2004 to 66%, just shy of the two-thirds needed to change the constitution. But the ANC still won more votes than at any time since the first multiracial elections in 1994. It looks unassailable for a decade ahead.

It was certainly undented by the breakaway Congress of the People, initially regarded as the first serious challenge to it since it came to power. The new party, known as Cope, picked up just 7% of the vote, a far cry from the 30% it had at one point predicted and less than half the score of the white-dominated Democratic Alliance (DA), which is still the main national opposition. Though Cope pipped the DA in local elections in five of South Africa's nine provinces, it failed to make any big inroads into the ANC's vote. In the Eastern Cape, which it had hoped to win, it got only 14%.

Although Cope's leaders are trying to put a brave face on things, pointing out that the party will have 30 MPs in the 400-seat parliament, its future must be in doubt. Barely five months old, it lacked organisation and a clear strategy. It attacked the ANC for corruption, nepotism and arrogance, yet voters knew that Cope's leaders had long been prominent ANC people. It also wobbled in its attitude to Thabo Mbeki, whom Jacob Zuma's people had ousted from the ANC's presidency and then from the national one. Supporters of Cope sang (literally) Mr Mbeki's praises, yet Cope's leaders sought to distance themselves from him.

Furthermore, Cope was fishing in the same pond as the DA, among better-educated, middle-class people worried about their country's future under an all-powerful former liberation movement led by the untested, controversial and populist Mr Zuma. But whereas the black-led Cope attracted mainly black voters, the white-led DA appealed mostly to South Africa's whites, mixed-race coloureds and Indians, who together make up a fifth of the country's 49m-plus people.

Competition from Cope makes the DA's success all the more impressive. With 17% of the vote, it got 67 seats. It also broke the ANC's stranglehold over all nine provinces by winning the Western Cape—and with an absolute majority. Helen Zille, the DA leader and mayor of Cape Town, will now take over as provincial premier. Though the DA could rule the province alone, she may invite some smaller parties to join her. If the DA is to challenge the ANC at the national level, she knows it must attract black voters.

Mr Zuma's ANC did particularly well, as expected, in his own homeland of KwaZulu-Natal, where Mangosuthu Buthelezi's once-powerful Inkatha Freedom Party, which used to be locked in violent strife with the ANC, slumped from 37% in the last election in 2004 to 21% this time; nationally, the Zulu party has fallen steadily from 11% in 1994 to under 5% today, though it still won 18 seats.

No other national party reached 1% but a handful of tiddlers, thanks to South Africa's system of party lists and proportional representation, will together have about 20 seats in Parliament.

I'll put away my machinegun

Mr Zuma has hastened to reassure those who fear another five years of ANC dominance. There has been no hint of the threatening, vengeful tone that sometimes marked his campaign. Since the election, he has sounded statesmanlike and conciliatory. He felt “humbled and grateful” for his decisive mandate, he said, promising to defend the constitution and be a president for all South Africans. He says he will serve only one term.

Not everyone will be convinced by this sweet talk. Many are waiting to see whom he appoints as ministers and what his policies will be. He is due to be elected president by Parliament on May 6th, and will announce a new government after his inauguration three days later. But speculation is rife, especially concerning Trevor Manuel, South Africa's steady finance minister. Some said he would head a new central planning commission in the presidency. The latest buzz is that Mr Zuma will keep him in his present post to reassure the markets.

Mr Zuma will outline his new government's programme in a state-of-the-nation address on June 3rd. There will, he says, be “no surprises”. He will stick to the ANC's election manifesto: more jobs, better education, less crime, more subsidised housing and more welfare. But with South Africa slipping into its first recession in 17 years, Mr Zuma will be hard put to fulfil all those promises. He has a rough road ahead.