Related Features

Tools

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.
The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win).
Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 12 (11/21/09).>

Game of the Week: #7 LSU 27 @ #8 Mississippi 32
LSU may be ranked ahead of Mississippi as our 7th best team in the country, but games against Florida, at Georgia, at Alabama and at Mississippi may give LSU more losses than its ranking would indicate. In addition to their prolific offense led by junior quarterback Jevan Snead, Ole Miss also brings with them a strong defensive unit that is stingy against the run. LSU's offense relies on the ground game with a mobile quarterback and a stable of good running backs, while the defense is probably weakest at safety. Homefield advantage is obviously going to play a role as well. Ole Miss is just a bad matchup for LSU. The Rebels win 55.1% of the time and by an average score of 32-27.

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

North Carolina State @ Virginia Tech

93.7

9-30

Virginia @ Clemson

92.4

8-24

Duke @ Miami (FL)

91.0

8-27

Maryland @ Florida State

84.7

12-30

North Carolina @ Boston College

10.6

19-8

Colorado @ Oklahoma State

95.0

9-54

Iowa State @ Missouri

95.0

17-45

Kansas @ Texas

95.0

15-47

Kansas State @ Nebraska

95.0

9-36

Baylor @ Texas A&M

5.0

38-15

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech

5.0

43-21

Louisville @ South Florida

87.4

14-31

Rutgers @ Syracuse

5.0

32-11

Minnesota @ Iowa

88.0

11-27

Purdue @ Indiana

44.2

15-14

Wisconsin @ Northwestern

20.6

22-14

Penn State @ Michigan State

16.9

22-11

Ohio State @ Michigan

5.0

30-8

Memphis @ Houston

95.0

14-46

UAB @ East Carolina

88.0

13-30

Southern Methodist @ Marshall

77.1

13-26

Tulsa @ Southern Miss

66.8

24-32

Tulane @ UCF

60.1

12-17

UTEP @ Rice

53.2

26-29

Connecticut @ Notre Dame

81.4

9-22

Eastern Michigan @ Toledo

79.4

11-25

Northern Illinois @ Ohio

67.8

14-22

Akron @ Bowling Green

65.4

19-27

Kent State @ Temple

47.8

17-18

Central Michigan @ Ball State

33.6

23-19

Buffalo @ Miami (OH)

14.6

21-9

San Diego State @ Utah

95.0

9-38

Air Force @ Brigham Young

71.4

23-33

Colorado State @ New Mexico

36.2

22-20

TCU @ Wyoming

5.0

30-9

Arizona State @ UCLA

37.2

16-14

Oregon @ Arizona

34.2

25-21

California @ Stanford

9.3

32-14

Oregon State @ Washington State

5.0

41-9

Chattanooga @ Alabama

95.0

3-52

Florida International @ Florida

95.0

4-60

Kentucky @ Georgia

95.0

6-36

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

85.7

12-28

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee

74.1

8-18

LSU @ Mississippi

55.1

27-32

Florida Atlantic @ Troy

78.4

16-30

Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette

75.7

15-25

Army @ North Texas

35.9

17-14

Arkansas State @ Middle Tennessee

21.3

22-14

Hawaii @ San Jose State

59.8

15-20

Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State

38.9

21-18

Boise State @ Utah State

5.0

34-12

Nevada @ New Mexico State

5.0

41-13

Week 12 Standings

Conference

Team

Abs Record

Exp Record

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

10 - 1

9 - 2

Atlantic Coast

Georgia Tech

9 - 2

9 - 2

Atlantic Coast

Florida State

11 - 0

8 - 3

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina

8 - 3

7 - 4

Atlantic Coast

Clemson

7 - 4

7 - 4

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina State

7 - 4

6 - 5

Atlantic Coast

Miami (FL)

6 - 5

6 - 5

Atlantic Coast

Maryland

5 - 6

5 - 6

Atlantic Coast

Duke

4 - 7

4 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Boston College

3 - 8

4 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Wake Forest

2 - 9

4 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Virginia

2 - 9

3 - 8

Big 12

Texas

11 - 0

10 - 1

Big 12

Oklahoma

10 - 1

10 - 1

Big 12

Oklahoma State

10 - 1

9 - 2

Big 12

Baylor

8 - 3

7 - 4

Big 12

Kansas

8 - 3

7 - 4

Big 12

Missouri

6 - 5

7 - 4

Big 12

Nebraska

5 - 6

7 - 4

Big 12

Texas Tech

7 - 4

6 - 5

Big 12

Colorado

5 - 6

4 - 7

Big 12

Kansas State

4 - 8

4 - 8

Big 12

Texas A&M

1 - 10

3 - 8

Big 12

Iowa State

2 - 10

3 - 9

Big East

West Virginia

10 - 0

9 - 1

Big East

Rutgers

10 - 0

8 - 2

Big East

Pittsburgh

8 - 2

7 - 3

Big East

South Florida

6 - 4

7 - 3

Big East

Cincinnati

6 - 4

6 - 4

Big East

Connecticut

3 - 7

4 - 6

Big East

Louisville

3 - 8

4 - 7

Big East

Syracuse

1 - 10

2 - 9

Big Ten

Ohio State

11 - 1

10 - 2

Big Ten

Penn State

11 - 1

10 - 2

Big Ten

Iowa

10 - 2

10 - 2

Big Ten

Illinois

8 - 2

8 - 2

Big Ten

Wisconsin

9 - 2

8 - 3

Big Ten

Michigan State

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big Ten

Northwestern

6 - 6

6 - 6

Big Ten

Michigan

4 - 8

5 - 7

Big Ten

Minnesota

4 - 8

5 - 7

Big Ten

Purdue

3 - 9

3 - 9

Big Ten

Indiana

1 - 11

3 - 9

Conference USA

Houston

10 - 1

9 - 2

Conference USA

Southern Miss

9 - 2

9 - 2

Conference USA

East Carolina

8 - 3

8 - 3

Conference USA

Tulsa

6 - 5

7 - 4

Conference USA

Marshall

6 - 5

5 - 6

Conference USA

UTEP

6 - 5

5 - 6

Conference USA

Rice

5 - 6

5 - 6

Conference USA

UAB

4 - 7

5 - 6

Conference USA

Memphis

2 - 9

3 - 8

Conference USA

Southern Methodist

2 - 9

3 - 8

Conference USA

UCF

2 - 9

3 - 8

Conference USA

Tulane

1 - 10

2 - 9

Independents (FBS)

Notre Dame

10 - 1

8 - 3

Independents (FBS)

Navy

7 - 4

6 - 5

Independents (FBS)

Army

4 - 7

4 - 7

Independents (FBS)

Western Kentucky

0 - 10

1 - 9

Mid-American

Western Michigan

10 - 1

8 - 3

Mid-American

Ball State

8 - 3

7 - 4

Mid-American

Central Michigan

8 - 3

7 - 4

Mid-American

Northern Illinois

5 - 6

6 - 5

Mid-American

Ohio

8 - 3

6 - 5

Mid-American

Bowling Green

7 - 4

5 - 6

Mid-American

Akron

6 - 5

5 - 6

Mid-American

Kent State

5 - 6

5 - 6

Mid-American

Buffalo

4 - 7

5 - 6

Mid-American

Temple

4 - 7

5 - 6

Mid-American

Toledo

4 - 7

5 - 6

Mid-American

Eastern Michigan

0 - 11

2 - 9

Mid-American

Miami (OH)

0 - 12

1 - 11

Mountain West

TCU

11 - 0

9 - 2

Mountain West

Utah

9 - 2

9 - 2

Mountain West

Brigham Young

8 - 3

8 - 3

Mountain West

Air Force

9 - 3

8 - 4

Mountain West

Colorado State

5 - 6

5 - 6

Mountain West

UNLV

5 - 6

4 - 7

Mountain West

San Diego State

3 - 8

4 - 7

Mountain West

New Mexico

3 - 8

3 - 8

Mountain West

Wyoming

3 - 8

3 - 8

Pacific-10

USC

10 - 0

9 - 1

Pacific-10

California

10 - 1

9 - 2

Pacific-10

Oregon State

9 - 2

8 - 3

Pacific-10

Oregon

9 - 2

8 - 3

Pacific-10

Arizona

6 - 4

6 - 4

Pacific-10

Stanford

6 - 5

6 - 5

Pacific-10

Arizona State

5 - 6

5 - 6

Pacific-10

UCLA

4 - 7

4 - 7

Pacific-10

Washington

1 - 9

2 - 8

Pacific-10

Washington State

0 - 11

1 - 10

Southeastern

Alabama

11 - 0

10 - 1

Southeastern

Florida

11 - 0

10 - 1

Southeastern

Mississippi

10 - 1

10 - 1

Southeastern

Georgia

8 - 3

8 - 3

Southeastern

LSU

8 - 3

8 - 3

Southeastern

Tennessee

7 - 4

7 - 4

Southeastern

Arkansas

7 - 4

6 - 5

Southeastern

Vanderbilt

6 - 6

5 - 7

Southeastern

Kentucky

3 - 8

4 - 7

Southeastern

South Carolina

3 - 8

4 - 7

Southeastern

Auburn

3 - 8

3 - 8

Southeastern

Mississippi State

2 - 9

3 - 8

Sun Belt

Troy

8 - 3

7 - 4

Sun Belt

Arkansas State

8 - 2

6 - 4

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette

6 - 5

6 - 5

Sun Belt

Middle Tennessee

7 - 5

6 - 6

Sun Belt

Florida International

6 - 5

5 - 6

Sun Belt

Florida Atlantic

3 - 7

4 - 6

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Monroe

3 - 8

3 - 8

Sun Belt

North Texas

1 - 11

3 - 9

Western Athletic

Boise State

10 - 1

10 - 1

Western Athletic

Nevada

10 - 1

9 - 2

Western Athletic

Louisiana Tech

7 - 4

7 - 4

Western Athletic

Fresno State

6 - 5

6 - 5

Western Athletic

Hawaii

4 - 7

5 - 6

Western Athletic

Utah State

5 - 6

4 - 7

Western Athletic

San Jose State

3 - 7

3 - 7

Western Athletic

New Mexico State

2 - 9

3 - 8

Western Athletic

Idaho

0 - 11

1 - 10

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!