dittybopper:cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will. For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it. You know it's going to happen.

Actually, the Ukrainian army is about a quarter the size of the Russian, and has the advantage that all of their military is located in Ukraine, while the Russians still have to commit vast numbers of troops to other regions. A lot of those troops are in Chechnya, who could decide to take advantage of Putin's distraction to light the whole region on fire.

Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories. Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough. Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration. Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia. It's what I would do.

Gyro the Greek Sandwich Pirate:dittybopper:No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

Maybe not in terms of being able to stop the Russians from rolling over, but in West Ukraine you can bet there would be a very healthy insurgency.

And unlike Chechnya, it would be right on Europe's doorstep.

Ukraine used to have nukes, before they agreed to give them up. Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances? Any idea how long that would take?

nmrsnr:Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock. You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Grahor:This text is now purple: The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.

You know, it's comments like this that make me fume. Let's forget for a second that Ukraine has, like, 10% of active planes compared to Russia. (like, 80 Sukhoy planes of all kinds, none last generation, against 1080 Sukhoy planes for Russia, with at least half last generation).

But the moment one single plane will attack Moscow, it's all over for Ukraine. Childish desire "to punish impudent hohols for their loutishness" will turn into steely determination to exterminate "the foreign enemy that dared to touch the holy soil of motherland". Russia will simply declare total mobilization, cut all the talks with the West, probably including cutting all the gas for Europe, and will just overwhelm Ukraine without any consideration for its own losses.

That's why there is no chance in hell anyone in Ukraine will even consider that type of escalation.

Let me get this straight.

In a hypothetical fight for survival as an independent nation, the Ukrainian military wouldn't try to strike into Russia and would fight only on the defensive ...because Russia would invade them more? When they're fighting the country who literally farking genocided them within living memory?

Grahor:This text is now purple: The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.

You know, it's comments like this that make me fume. Let's forget for a second that Ukraine has, like, 10% of active planes compared to Russia. (like, 80 Sukhoy planes of all kinds, none last generation, against 1080 Sukhoy planes for Russia, with at least half last generation).

So, because someone says something that sounds nationalistic for Ukraine, you go on a 2 paragraph rant about how angry you are anyone would SUGGEST Russia might suffer some losses if their victims fought back.

But hey, you're no traitor! And it's certainly not YOUR desire to see your country conquered and ruled over by Russia! You assured us all that it's only those dirty, mean ol' non-Russians oppressing your poor, oppressed Ethnically Russian family and friends that FORCE you to be happy when Russian troops commit various criminal acts in foreign countries.

Grahor:dancindan84: Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances?

Oh, they are certainly going to. It's a very popular idea in Ukraine.

dancindan84: Any idea how long that would take?

Let me think... Right now Ukraine is collecting money for its army through sms. Like, you know, "send sms at that number if you love your Country and want to stop Russians from capturing it!" That's mostly for soldiers' wages and oil (do you know that army consumes unholy amount of oil?)

So, considering financial investments necessary for nuclear development... mmmm... Oh, it's 2 months, 11 days and 7 hours after they fix their economy! And that'll probably just take no more than a year after Ukraine will stop being the country with most corruption in Europe, even more than Russia and Moldova. So, like, eleventy forevers?

More Corruption than Russia? Considering that Russia is run by criminals and that the Russian mob, in and out of country, frequently carries out hits for Putin, I don't think that's possible. Corruption in Russia is at 100%; it is a government entirely OF corruption, with no accountability or regard for its people.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?don't bother pointing out the obvious,Grahor is russian shillLost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!

Yeah, nothing like driving Ukraine into the arms of the Europeans, and the Europeans into the arms of the Americans. Simply brilliant, Mr. Putin.

Grahor:Which Europe? Germany has its own gas pipeline from Russia, so Germany will not be affected. However, Slovenia, Slovakia, Chech, Bulgary, Greece will see their economy crush and burn, because natural gas is used not just for heating, but mostly for powering the industry. And they'll scream bloody murder at Ukraine. They certainly doesn't love Russia and want to stop it, but not for the price of their own economy crushing. This is a sacrifice they aren't ready to make.

"I'm Vladmir Putin, and I approve of this message because if capitalism taught me anything its the value of paid propaganda- er- marketing. Da, marketing."

flondrix:i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?

Physically, they are completely in control of them. They can stop gas flowing at any moment.

Contractually, however, they have obligations. Not just between them and Russia, but obligations to other European states. By stopping the gas they'll break those obligations. They've already done it once and were punished for it by European courts. So, they can do it at any moment, but it has long-term consequences.

kbronsito:Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito:You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.