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Wednesday, 26 December 2012

An analysis of the formula 1 odds for 2013.

It's only a few weeks since the 2012 formula 1 season ended and I'm already getting withdrawal symptoms. So to help me cope with the close season I thought I would have a look at the early odds for the 2013 driver's formula 1 championship.

Looking at the odds available from SkyBet, you can pretty much divide the field into three groups of drivers; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots.

The favourites:
Perhaps not surprisingly, SkyBet's odds seem to suggest that we're in for another two way battle between Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, with the pair of them the clear favourites in the current betting:

Sunday, 25 November 2012

An unbelievably exciting finish to an absolutely classic season.

Before I move onto my tips I just want to say how much I've absolutely loved the 2012 formula 1 season. I first got into formula 1 during the days of Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Mika Hakkinen, etc, and although those first few few seasons as a formula 1 fan got me completely hooked, I think it's fair to say that in terms of excitement and entertainment the bar just keeps getting higher.

Credit to the drivers for some of the amazing races we've witnessed this season and credit also to all the teams for the current atmosphere of co-operation which has allowed rivalries to be put aside for the greater good of the sport. Today's race has to go down as another brilliantly dramatic finale to a formula 1 season and I'm already looking forward to 2013.Anyway, this is how my post-qualifying tips performed...Race Winner:10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.38 - LOSS
Things were looking good for Lewis Hamilton until lap 54 when Nico Hulkenberg slid into him at the first corner and put him out of the race.

Race Winner (Eachway):10 points on Felipe Massa at 34.0 (5 points on the win - LOSS, 5 points eachway - WIN 33 points)*
Felipe
Massa rounded off his strong finish to the season with a podium at his home Grand Prix, ensuring a return of 33 points from this bet.

* On an eachway bet, SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places.

Saturday, 24 November 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Brazilian Grand Prix

Every
Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few
hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I
do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before
placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I
place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

Before I make my post-qualifying tips, once again I would add a note of caution to anyone placing a bet on
tomorrow's Grand Prix, as the current weather forecast predicts a high
possibility of a wet race which will of course add a degree of
unpredictability to things making all betting markets harder to
predict. So bearing that in mind, here are my post-qualifying tips...

Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Brazilian Grand Prix

Every
Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few
hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I
do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

I would add a note of caution to keep an eye on the weather forecast for Sunday's race, as a wet race will of course add a degree of unpredictability to things making all betting markets harder to predict. Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips...

Race Winner:10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.75
Lewis
Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel looked to be the class of the field in
the US, so you have to fancy them to contest things again in Brazil.
Lewis just had the edge on Sunday and with Vettel being focussed on the
championship he'll be primarily concerned with finishing ahead of Alonso
and therefore unlikely to want to take too many risks battling for the
lead. I'm therefore edging slightly towards Lewis Hamilton at odds of
3.75.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 3.5
A poor qualifying session hindered his chances at the US Grand Prix, but Ricciardo has nevertheless managed 5 top ten finishes from the last 8 Grand Prix and therefore looks decent value for a points scoring finish at Interlagos at odds of 3.5.

Tuesday, 20 November 2012

An exciting Grand Prix, but an average performance from my formula 1 tips...

In general I always like to wait until
after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the
best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points
and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying
using the odds available from SkyBet.com.I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Both sets of tips performed quite averagely
this week, although once again my post-qualifying tips just managed to outperform my
pre-qualifying tips, so the way things are developing it’s looking like waiting
until after qualifying before placing your formula 1 bets is definitely a wise
strategy.

This is how my post-qualifying tips
performed…

To Finish On The Podium:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5 – WIN
35 points
Fernando is becoming the master at qualifying on the 3rd or 4th
row of the grid and then making up a few places during the race to finish up on
the podium and he did it once again at the United States Grand Prix.He was arguably helped by Ferrari’s clever
and sneaky tactic of forcing a five grid sot penalty for Felipe Massa by
breaking the seal on his gear box, but I think there’s a strong case that even
without this pre-race tactic Fernando would very probably have still made the
podium.Anyway, if he qualifies in a
similar position at Brazil then he’s worth considering once again for another
podium finish.

Top Six Finish:15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33 – WIN 20 points
Kimi has been the model of consistency in the Top Six market, and has now made it 12
top six finishes from the last 13 Grand Prix.

Sunday, 18 November 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The United States Grand Prix

Every
Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few
hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I
do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before
placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I
place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

To Finish On The Podium:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5
If Vettel wins the race then Alonso needs to finish at least 4th
to take the championship battle to the final round of the season
in Brazil next week, so you can guarantee that Fernando will be giving it his all
to make up as many places as possible. Alonso had a disappointing qualifying session but that's been
the story of his last few Grand Prix weekends and it hasn't stopped him
from making the podium in 5 of the last 6 races. One of Fernando's
strengths is that he consistently makes up places during the race, so
even starting from 8th on the grid he can't be written off.

Top Six Finish:15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33
Kimi
has been the model of consistency in this market, notching 11 top six
finishes from the last 12 Grand Prix. On the back of his brilliant
drive at Abu Dhabi I'm therefore going to go for a cagey bet on Kimi
Raikkonen to record yet another top six finish.

Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The United States Grand Prix

Every
Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few
hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I
do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 5.0
Daniel Ricciardo has now sneaked into the lower end of the top ten at 5 of the last 7 Grand Prix and yet the bookies still continue to rate him as an outsider in this market. His odds to finish in the points at the United States Grand Prix this weekend are 5.0, so at that price he seems worth a punt.

To Qualify On The Front Row:20 points on Mark Webber to Qualify On The Front Row at 1.91
Mark Webber has qualified on the front row at each of the last four Grand Prix, so this looks like another decent bet.

Sunday, 4 November 2012

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a
few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds
available from SkyBet.com.I then
analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Once again my post-qualifying tips outperformed my
pre-qualifying tips, making a modest profit for the second week running, so the
way things are developing it’s looking like after qualifying is definitely the
best time to place your formula 1 bets…

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Lap 1 Leader:

10 points on Mark
Webber at 6.0 - LOSS

Webber made a very poor start and wasted his strong qualifying,
so this bet was already looking doomed by the first corner.

To Finish On The
Podium:

20 points on Kimi
Raikkonen at 2.63 – WIN 53 points

With the benefit of hindsight, I was too conservative with
this bet but nevertheless Kimi justified his pre-race confidence with a strong controlled
performance.He made an excellent
getaway from the grid which meant he was perfectly placed to capitalise when
Lewis suffered more mechanical woes.

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every
Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few
hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I
do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before
placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I
place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

Lap 1 Leader:10 points on Mark Webber at 6.0Lewis
Hamilton's starts haven't been that great in recent races, so although Mark Webber admittedly hasn't always been an amazing starter himself, odds of 6.0 look a little generous and therefore I'm going to go for a small punt on Mark Webber in the Lap 1 Leader
market.

To Finish On The Podium:20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.63Kimi
was talking up his chances of a strong race in his post-qualifying interviews and seems
confident that he has the pace to fight the Red Bulls (meaning Mark
Webber now that Vettel is starting from the pit-lane). There's no escaping the fact that the Lotus' lack of straight-line speed has meant that Kimi hasn't been a great over-taker this season, but nevertheless starting from fourth a podium finish looks within Kimi's capabilities.

Tuesday, 30 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every
Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few
hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I
do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

GP Winning Margin:20 points on 6 Seconds Or More at 1.73
All of Sebastian Vettel's four recent victories have been won by more
than 6 seconds. Maybe part of the reason for this is that Vettel, being
the competitive racer he is, likes to put in fast laps in the closing
stages of a Grand Prix in an attempt to get the fastest lap of the
race. Whatever the reason, we haven't seen a really close finish for a
while now so a winning margin of more than 6 seconds would seem to be
the bet to go for.

To Win Outright:10 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.73
The unpredictability of the start of the season now feels a long time ago after Sebastian Vettel's domination in recent Grand Prix. Vettel now has four straight victories so you can understand why the bookes have him as the odds on favourite as he looks unstoppable at the moment. At odds of 1.73 though, there's too much risk for not enough reward so I'm going to limit myself to a small 10 point bet on Sebastian Vettel to continue his run and then go for an additional eachway bet on one of the chasing pack...

Monday, 29 October 2012

Post-qualifying bets perform best once again...

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a
few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds
available from SkyBet.com.I then
analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

My pre-qualifying tips were a washout this weekend, but my post-qualifying
tips returned a slight overall profit…

To Win
Outright:15 points on Lewis Hamilton
at 8.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel justified his extremely short of odds of 1.4 with a very
comfortable victory.

To Finish In The Points
(Top Ten Finish):20 points on Bruno Senna at
3.0 – WIN
60 points
Like he has done on several occasions previously this season, Bruno Senna once
again just sneaked into the lower end of the points scoring positions.

Saturday, 27 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Indian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

To Win Outright:15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 8.0On current
form you can understand why Sebastian Vettel is the 1.4 odds on favourite but
at odds like that there’s not much money to be made. In Lewis Hamilton's post-qualifying interviews, he seemed to think that McLaren have the pace to give the Red Bulls a fight in tomorrow's race so I'm going to go for a small bet on Lewis Hamilton for the win at odds of 8.0.

To Finish
In The Points (Top Ten Finish):20 points
on Bruno Senna at 3.0Both the
Williams drivers of Pastor Maldonado and Bruno Senna seemed to think they could
have got more out of qualifying.Added
to this, Senna tends to race better than he qualifies so although he’s been out
of sorts in recent Grand Prix, starting from 13th tomorrow he has to
be considered for a points finish.

Tuesday, 23 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Indian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 3.5
Toro Rosso's steady improvement in form throughout the season seems to have gone unnoticed by the bookies, so given that Ricciardo has achieved a points scoring finish at four of the last five Grand Prix he looks to be generously priced at odds of 3.5.

Retire On First Lap:10 points on Romain Grosjean at 23.0
Given his well publicised first lap troubles I was surprised to see SkyBet offering odds of 23.0 for Grosjean to retire on the first lap, so this
one has to be worth a small bet.

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

The
driver’s championship is now looking very much like a two horse race and
although Red Bull look very strong at the moment, Ferrari aren’t too far away
so it’s all to play for with four races to go.

Pre-Qualifying Tips:

To Win Outright:25 points on Lewis Hamilton at 4.5 - LOSS

Lewis
suffered from an issue with his rear suspension during the race, but even before
his suspension problem manifested itself he never looked in with a chance of
troubling Vettel for the victory.

To Finish On The Podium:15 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 – WIN 38 points

Once again
Fernando continued his impressive run of podium finishes and if we disregard retirements he has now finished on the podium in eight out of the last ten Grand Prix.Again excluding retirements, Fernando
has also improved on or matched his grid position in all but two of the races so far this season,
so that’s one other statistic worth bearing in mind when considering a
post-qualifying bet on Fernando in future Grand Prix.

Saturday, 13 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Korean Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:

Mark Webber has had a poor spell by his standards recently but he tends to race strongly when he starts from the front row of the grid.Of course, there’s the potential matter of team orders to consider but Mark is still in with a mathematical shout at the championship and given that he hasn’t taken too kindly to team orders in the past, I’m therefore going to risk 25 points on Webber to win outright at 4.33.

To Finish On The Podium:

20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 5.5

You would have to say that with Webber, Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso starting on the front two rows of the grid, you would probably expect the podium to most likely come from those four drivers.However, with the driver’s championship balanced the way it is we may see some very competitive opening laps so if there are any incidents then Kimi Raikkonen is well placed starting from fifth to take advantage if any of the front four encounter problems.He wasn’t too far away from the front row pace during qualifying and therefore given the short odds available on the front four, I’m going to go for a small bet on Kimi for a podium at odds of 5.5.

Thursday, 11 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Korean Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

To Win Outright:25 points on Lewis Hamilton at 4.5
Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular looked very strong at Suzuka, but given the unpredictable nature of the season so far, Vettel's odds of 2.62 look a little short. Lewis Hamilton had a bad day at the office in Suzuka but a lot of that was down to Lewis going in the wrong direction with car set-up, so he'll be aiming to bounce back to form in Korea. Admittedly, the reliability of the McLaren hasn't been too great in recent races but before Japan, Lewis had won the last two races that he managed finished, so at odds of 4.5 for the victory he looks a slightly more attractive bet than Sebastian Vettel.

To Finish On The Podium:15 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5
Excluding retirements (neither of which were Fernando's or Ferrari's fault), Alonso has finished on the podium at all but two of the last eleven Grand Prix. His consistency therefore makes him an attractive bet for the podium at odds of 2.5.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

On the betting front it was an unsuccessful Grand Prix weekend, but in terms of the battle for the driver's championship things are hotting up as Sebastian Vettel is now breathing down Alonso's neck after his second successive victory. The bookies now have Vettel as the odds on favourite for the title, but it would be foolish to right off the experience of Ferrari and the talent of Alonso just yet. Although Lewis and Kimi are both still in with a mathematical chance at the title, they can only really be considered as distant outsiders with the bookies rating them as 20/1 and 50/1 long shots respectively. Formula 1 is an unpredictable sport though, so there will no doubt be quite a few more twists and turns before the season is over.

Just to recap, every Grand Prix I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets before and after qualifying using the odds available from OLBG.com and then see how the two sets of tips compare. As neither set of tips was successful this weekend, the running totals for their comparative performance therefore remains unchanged at:
Pre-Qualifying Tips: 0
Post-Qualifying Tips: 2So after qualifying is still looking like the best time to place a bet. Of course given my poor performance this weekend the best strategy would be not to have a bet at all!

Alternatively, it's always safer to bet with points rather than cash, so for anyone who’d
like the chance to bet with points for the chance to win cash prizes I
recommend checking out a cool website called olbg.com.They
award prizes every month in several sporting categories for the best
performers of the month and it’s completely free to play, so if you want
to discover more then check out the following link:

Saturday, 6 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Japanese Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:The Japanese Grand Prix: Suzuka Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips...

To Win Outright:20 points on Mark Webber at 6.0
The Red Bulls were clearly the team to beat in qualifying but at the time of writing Sebastian Vettel is still under investigation for allegedly blocking Fernando Alonso during Q3. With Vettel's odds for the victory as short as 1.57 that therefore looks a risky proposition as things stand. Mark Webber has been off the pace slightly in the last few races but with the question mark currently hanging over Vettel's starting grid position, a small bet on Mark Webber at odds of 6.0 looks the safer option.

To Win Outright (Eachway)*:15 points on Sergio Perez at 26.0
This looks like a bit of an optimistic bet given that Sergio Perez has yet to win a Grand Prix. However, excluding retirements, Perez has improved on his grid position during the race in all but one of the last ten Grand Prix, and always looks strong during the closing stages of races. Starting from 5th he therefore looks a reasonable bet to claim his 4th top three position of the year, so while the top step of the podium looks a longshot, an eachway bet at odds of 26.0 seems worth a small punt.

* NB. Some bookies pay 1/5 of the odds for a top three finish, while others pay 1/3 of the odds for a top two finish. I'm picking this bet based on 1/5 of the odds for a top three finish but would probably give it a miss if 1/3 of the odds for a top two finish were offered.

Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Japanese Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

To Win Outright:35 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.25
Reliability seems to be McLaren's one weak point at the moment, but they remain the team in form. Like Spa, Suzuka is a circuit with high speed challenging corners and one which the drivers love, and with team-mate Jenson having to take a five slot grid penalty, Lewis looks to be the man to beat at this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix.

To Win Outright (Eachway):20 points on Jenson Button at 8.5Jenson has a five slot grid penalty this weekend due to an enforced gearbox change, so a bet for the outright win looks a touch optimistic. But given how well McLaren are going at the moment added to Jenson's impressive drive at Suzuka last year, I still think a small eachway bet is worth a punt.

Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Retirements meant that a lot of my tips didn't come off this week but the detailed performance of my pre-qualifying and post-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix are as follows:

Post-Qualifying Tips:To Win Outright:20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.61 - LOSS
Lewis looked to be in control of the race until gearbox failure put paid to his chances.

To Win Outright (Eachway):20 points on Pastor Maldonado at 19.0 - LOSS
Pastor
Maldonado looked comfortable in 4th until unfortunate timing with the safety car moved him down the field, followed soon after by a retirement.

To Finish On The Podium:30 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 - WIN 75 points
Fernando's consistent ability to get the maximum out of his Ferrari continued at Singapore with a podium finish. He was also the only one of my post-qualifying tips to finish.

Saturday, 22 September 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1. It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else. If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I made a few tips a couple of days ago before qualifying and now I'm going to make another set of tips to see which set of tips do best. I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright:20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.61
Odds of 1.61 in a race with a field of 24 is hardly attractive, but on the other hand Lewis qualified on pole with almost half a second to spare. Providing he avoids an accident then he has to be the strong favourite for the victory. Admittedly, the tricky street circuit nature of the Singapore track mean that avoiding an accident is by no means a certainty, but nevertheless even at such short odds you have to fancy Lewis to take the victory.

Thursday, 20 September 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Singapore Grand Prix

Please note, this blog
is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know
formula 1. It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well
my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone
else. If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity
then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing
formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait
until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's
the best strategy or not I'm going to make some tips before and after
qualifying and see which set of tips do best. I'll give myself 100
points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright:25 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.25
McLaren are the team in form at the moment, and although the street circuit nature of Singapore means the recent results at Spa and Monza won't be entirely relevant, McLaren were nevertheless also strong in Hungary which has similar characteristics to the Singapore circuit. Although Jenson has looked back to form in the last few races, Lewis still has the edge over him so I'm opting for a 30 point bet on Lewis Hamilton at 3.25.

Thursday, 13 September 2012

My pre-qualifying and post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix performed as follows:

Post-Qualifying Tips:

To finish in the points (top ten finish):

30 points on Bruno Senna at 3.5 – WIN – 105 point return

Bruno Senna is always a solid bet for the top ten and at Monza he took his record for the season to 7 top ten finishes from 13 Grand Prix.

To Win Outright (Eachway):

30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75 – LOSS

This bet looked to be heading for an eachway return (which would have meant a loss of -1.3 points) until Jenson’s car failure towards the end.If it had been Lewis who hit car trouble though, then things could have been different.

Saturday, 8 September 2012

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1. It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else. If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I made a few tips earlier today before qualifying and now I'm going to make another set of tips to see which set of tips do best. I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright:5 points on Paul Di Resta at 67.0.
Paul Di Resta has looked quietly impressive so far this weekend and another first corner incident like that at Spa could potentially take out some of his front running competitors and give him a surprise chance at victory. Given that Monza has a history of first corner incidents I'm therefore going to go for a speculative 5 point bet on Paul Di Resta for the victory.

To Win Outright (Eachway):30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75.
Lewis Hamilton has to be favourite for the win but at odds of 1.9 he doesn't hold much appeal. Jenson on the other hand has been heading back to form in recent events and therefore starting from second on the grid his odds of 3.75 are more tempting. I'm therefore going to go for a cagey eachway bet on Jenson Button. My 30 point bet will return 55 points if he wins, and if he comes second I suffer a loss of -1.3 points which I can live with.

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1. It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else. If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I'm going to make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright (Eachway):30 points on Mark Webber at 21.0.
For whatever reason, there always seem to be more generous odds available on Mark Webber than the other top drivers, despite the fact that his form compared to team-mate Vettel is a lot closer than the bookies seem to realise. The Red Bulls haven't been on the top of their game during practise, however, but at odds of 21.0, Mark Webber looks a decent eachway bet for the win.