Analysis: The Grand Finale. Yes, it's The
SuperBowl. For the first time in many years we actually get the two
number one seeds and it ought to be a dandy - with the number one
offense in the league taking on the number one defensive team. I
actually made a prop bet that one team would not lead by more than
13.5 points. The "No" was an underdog but I think this game will be
pretty tight most of the way. When I do my numbers for this
contest, if you just take the last two playoff games, I have The
Broncos by between 2.5 and 3.. so the line from that perspective
seems spot on. However, when I incorporate the numbers from the
regular season as well, I get Seattle as the right side and a great
deal of it has to do with turnovers and strength of schedule. The
Broncos played a below average schedule in the regular season and
in the playoffs they have taken on The Chargers and The Patriots -
by no means slouches - but The Seahawks have taken on the best two
teams in football other than themselves (and The Broncos) in The
Saints and The 49'ers. Seattle has played San Francisco 3-times
this year. They have played New Orleans twice. They have played The
Colts, The Panthers, and The Cardinals twice. This team has been
tested at the highest level. Denver meanwhile played The Chiefs,
Patriots, and Chargers as the highest rated teams on their schedule
- teams that I rate lower than almost each of Seattle's top tier
opponents. Looking at turnovers, if you have been watching the
playoffs, you will know that this is paramount to Seattle's success
and I feel they will win this battle on SuperBowl Sunday as well.
Including the regular season, The Seahawks turnover differential is
+23. Denver is -2. Outside of this, it is very difficult to make a
case for either side that cannot be countered equally by the
opponent. A couple of things I like about The Broncos.. their
defense has been terrific in the playoffs, holding each team to
season low yard totals and only giving up 16.5-points on average,
only a half point more than Seattle. And of course, Peyton Manning.
He has been brilliant in the two playoff games and I expect him to
do well again today. A couple of things I like about The Seahawks..
Denver has not played against a defense like this all year. Denver
also has not faced a dynamic quarterback like Russell Wilson all
year. They played against Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III but
I'm not about to say that these are like seeing the same movie
twice.

Once you get past the numbers, the match ups, and the
strengths and weaknesses, you can take a look at the trends coming
into the game for each team and the SuperBowl history trends.. and
yep, it all comes up nearly a wash. As I stated earlier, I can make
a case for Denver being a 2-to-3 point favorites but I believe I
can do the same with Seattle. In fact, they did truly open up as a
1-point favorite when the game was first posted immediately
following the Conference Championships.. so my thought is this..
the majority of the tickets are on The Broncos and if the number
ever gets to 3, it is going to get pounded back down. Even if it
does not get to 3, I feel this game is going to close with Denver
being about a 1 or 1.5-point favorite. That being the case, I like
playing a 6-point teaser and teasing The Seahawks up to +8.5. Up
through 3, 7, and 8. I am not comfortable laying 2.5 with Denver as
I don't see a real edge here. I like Seattle's defense to be a
major factor in keeping this game close, and therefore, I like
getting a great number with a dog that has every chance in the
world to win outright. Now, what do we put on the other leg of the
teaser? I like OVER 41. UNDER 53 looks good too but if this game is
close like I expect, I would not want to be rooting against any
scoring in crunch time. I expect Manning is going to get his and
Seattle will have to keep up. During the regular season, these
teams combined for 63-points if you take their average scoring
outputs. In the playoffs, it adds up to 48. On defense they gave up
a total of 39 in the regular season and 32.5 in the playoffs. The
weather has been a huge topic this week and will continue to be so
all the way until the final whistle blows I imagine but the key is
wind.. and right now, it does not look like we are going to get
anything crazy in the way of wind - or weather for that matter. It
will definitely be chilly but I think these offenses will be just
fine. And if the cold is just enough to throw them off a tick,
turnovers could lead to scoring as well.

Six Point Two Team Teaser: Seahawks +8.5 and OVER
41

I make the final score Seahawks 27 - Broncos 24

Plan your shopping wisely as I have already seen some places
knock the number down to 2. Let's wrap up what has been a great NFL
season, on a high note. Enjoy the game and have fun.