Helming Agricultural Outlook

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LIVESTOCK:

DAILY DRESSED BEEF OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY'S BEEF MARKET IS STEADY/LOWER. BUYERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUY CUTS MAINLY ON PRICE. OF COURSE, FILL IN NEEDS FROM WEEKEND SALES MAY SUPPORT PRICES ON SOME CUTS MONDAY, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE BY TUESDAY. PACKERS INVENTORY TO START THE WEEK WILL BE MODERATE TO LIGHT IN GENERAL. THEIR MARGIN IS ESTIMATED NEGATIVE FOR THE PAST WEEK AND THEY'LL TRY TO HOLD PRICES THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY DID BUY CATTLE SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS PAST WEEK AND WILL WANT TO MOVE MEAT. SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE: 120,000.

DAILY FED CATTLE OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: SHOWLISTS LIKELY MOVED SUFFICIENT NUMBERS OF CATTLE NEEDING TO MOVE TO KEEP MARKETINGS IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE. AFTER LAST WEEK'S LIGHT SALES, GOOD MOVEMENT THIS WEEK WAS CRITICAL. NO CASH TRADE IS EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TRADING MAY BE UNDERWAY BY WEDNESDAY. PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO 1 DOLLAR LOWER. THE WEAK BEEF MARKET AND ADEQUATE LIVE INVENTORY WILL CAUSE PACKERS TO KEEP PRESSURE ON CATTLE PRICES. CORNBELT: 63-64/102-103 KANSAS: 63-64.50 TEXAS: 63-64.50

DAILY FEEDER CATTLE OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: MONDAY'S MARKET FOR FEEDER CATTLE WILL BE STEADY TO INSTANCES UP 2 DOLLARS. MOST OF THE STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON LIGHTER YEARLINGS AND STOCKER CATTLE. FEEDLOT BUYING INTEREST WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. BUYERS WILL CONTINUE CAUTIOUS BUT WILL WANT CATTLE, LIKELY PREFERRING LIGHTER WEIGHTS. RECEIPTS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY, PARTICULARLY IN THE PLAINS. INTEREST FOR CALVES AND STOCKERS WILL CONTINUE STRONG AT FIRM TO HIGHER PRICES. PLAINS: 67-73 CORNBELT: 68-76

DAILY HOGS/PORK OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: TRADE REACTION TO THE REPORT WILL LIKELY IMPACT CASH HOG PRICES TO SOME EXTENT ON MONDAY. BUT WITH POOR MARGIN, PACKERS WILL WANT TO BUY HOGS LOWER. CASH TRADE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO OFF 1 DOLLAR. HOG MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE BUT PICK UP AROUND MID WEEK. PORK OFFERINGS WILL BE MODERATE BUT SALES WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. PRODUCT PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER PRESSURE. CUTOUT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE STEADY/LOWER. SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE: 370,000 WI CARC: 31.50-41.50 WT: 29-29.50 EI CARC: 33-43 ET: 29-30

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS 03/26/99: NOT ISSUED FRIDAYS.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK OF 03/29-04/02 : BEEF COMPLEX:

CATTLE FEEDERS WILL START THIS WEEK PRICING CATTLE 66/105 DOLLARS AND HIGHER. TRADING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. PACKERS WILL LIKELY START THE WEEK RELATIVELY SHORT BOUGHT BECAUSE OF POOR MARGINS. SHOWLISTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY SMALLER THIS WEEK. PRICES ARE PROJECTED TO BE MOSTLY STEADY, RANGING 64-65 DOLLARS AND 103-104 DOLLARS. MARKET WAS CONCERNED THIS PAST WEEK THAT SHIPMENT OF FOOD AID PACKAGE TO RUSSIA MIGHT BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF WARRING IN KOSOVO. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS WEEK. BEEF SALES WERE ONLY FAIR THE PAST WEEK BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME THIS WEEK. FUTURES PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE HOG REPORT EARLY THIS WEEK. A BULLISH REPORT IS EXPECTED AND REFLECTED BY PREMIUMS IN HOG FUTURES. IF HOG FUTURES DECLINE AFTER REPORT BECAUSE BULLISH REPORT IS IN THE MARKET, CATTLE FUTURES WILL ALSO TRADE LOWER.

REACTION TO THE HOG REPORT WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON EARLY WEEK FUTURES AND CASH TRADING. SINCE FUTURES PRICES ARE INFLATED BY BULLISH OPTIMISM, IT MAY BE EASIER TO TRADE LOWER THAN HIGHER IMMEDIATELY. IT APPEARS PRODUCERS HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATING HOGS. BUT, TO WHAT EXTENT? MARKET WILL BE DISAPPOINTED IF BREEDING HOGS ARE NOT DOWN 5 PERCENT OR MORE AND SOW FARROWING INTENTIONS DOWN 6-7 PERCENT OR MORE. CASH HOG PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK STEADY/LOWER BUT FIRM BY MID WEEK TO CLOSE STEADY/FIRM FOR THE WEEK. CASH HOG PRICES INCREASED 4-6 DOLLARS THROUGH MID WEEK THE PAST WEEK AND LIKELY ADDED ANOTHER 1-2 DOLLARS LATE WEEK. THIS ADVANCE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO HOLD UNLESS HOG MARKETINGS DROP AND/OR PORK DEMAND INCREASES MORE THAN EXPECTED. PORK SALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAIR AGAIN THIS WEEK AS RECENT HIGHER PRICES CURB BUYING INTEREST.

03/26/99 PM: MAY CORN FUTURES: CLOSE UP 1 CENT MONDAY. EXPECTATIONS FOR MARCH 1 STOCKS WILL BE 5,600 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 4,940 MILLION BUSHELS LAST YEAR. OUR ESTIMATE WAS 5,633 MILLION BUSHELS. A NUMBER IN THAT RANGE WOULD INDICATE FEED DEMAND 100-150 MILLION BUSHELS BELOW USDA PROJECTIONS BY SEPTEMBER 1. TRADE ESTIMATE FOR CORN ACRES IS 78.7 MILLION ACRES, SAME AS OUR ESTIMATE. MOVING AVERAGES ARE TURNING UP, WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE MORE FUND BUYING. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS, WILL BE RELEASED MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SHOW THE FUNDS BEGINNING THEIR MOVE TO THE LONG SIDE.

DAILY SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: MAY BEAN FUTURES: CLOSE UP 2 CENTS MONDAY. EXPECTATIONS FOR MARCH STOCKS WILL BE 1,500 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 1,203 MILLION BUSHELS YEAR-AGO. WE EXPECT 1,500 MILLION BUSHELS. TRADE ESTIMATES FOR 1999 SOYBEAN ACRES IS NEAR 74 MILLION ACRES, SAME AS OUR ESTIMATE. EARLY IN THE SESSION ON FRIDAY, THE SOY COMPLEX ABSORBED HEAVY SELLING. TALK IS INCREASING THAT CRUSHERS WILL TAKE DOWNTIME EARLY THIS YEAR, BEGINNING NOW. MARGINS WERE BELOW LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME, BUT MEAL EXPORTS WERE HIGHER. DESPITE ALL THE MEAL STOCKS, MEAL BASIS REMAINS FIRM, AND NO MEAL HAS BEEN DELIVERED ON THE MARCH SO FAR. RAIN DELAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ARGENTINE OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILY WHEAT OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: CHICAGO MAY FUTURES: CLOSE UP 2 CENTS MONDAY AND KANSAS CITY MAY FUTURES CLOSE UP 2 CENTS MONDAY. MARCH 1 WHEAT STOCKS ARE EXPECTED AT 1,420 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 1,167 MILLION BUSHELS LAST YEAR. OUR ESTIMATE IS 1,474 MILLION BUSHELS, AS WE EXPECT A NEGATIVE RESIDUAL. IDEAS FOR ALL WHEAT ARE 62.6 MILLION VS. 65.9 MILLION LAST YEAR. WE EXPECT 62.3 MILLION. OTHER SPRING WAS PROJECTED AT 15.1 MILLION ACRES. WE EXPECT 15.2 MILLION ACRES. DURUM ACRES WERE EXPECTED AT 3.6 MILLION VS. OUR ESTIMATE AT 3.7 MILLION ACRES. FUNDS WERE BUYERS AGAIN ON FRIDAY. PRODUCERS WILL BE SELLING AS ABOUT 225 MILLION BUSHELS OF OLD CROP MATURES UNDER LOAN BEFORE JUNE 1.

DAILY COTTON OUTLOOK

03/26/99 PM: MAY FUTURES: UP 20 POINTS MONDAY. PRICES HAVE REBOUNDED SINCE THE ACRES SURVEY WAS TAKEN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT 13.8 MILLION ACRES ON THIS REPORT, BUT THE FINAL IS LIKELY TO BE LARGER. LOOK FOR MARKETS TO SLOW INTO THE REPORT ON MARCH 31. THE CRB INDEX HIT A 9.5 WEEK HIGH, WHICH WILL OFFER SOME ENCOURAGEMENT TO OTHER COMMODITIES, INCLUDING COTTON.

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS 03/26/99: NOT ISSUED FRIDAYS.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL COMMENTS

FOR THE WEEK OF 03/29-04/02: CORN:

MOVING AVERAGES ON THE JULY TURNED UP AS THE 20-DAY CROSSED OVER THE 50-DAY. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS WILL SHOW THE FUNDS MOVING TOWARD THE LONG SIDE. RSI IS IN THE 70'S. SEASONALS ARE UP INTO MAY. SUPPORT ON JULY IS 42.31, THEN $2.21. RESISTANCE IS AT $2.40, THEN $2.50. JULY CORN TREND: UP. SUPPORT $2.21, RESISTANCE $2.50.

FOR THE WEEK OF 03/29-04/02: BEANS:

FUNDS ARE SHIFTING FROM THE SHORT TO THE LONG SIDE, WHICH WILL BE INDICATED BY THE COMMITMENT OF TRADERS. MOVING AVERAGES ARE TURNING UP, BUT THE 20-DAY IS $4.86 AND THE 50-DAY AT $5.03, SO THERE IS MORE WORK TO BE DONE. RSI IS IN THE 70'S. SEASONALS ARE UP INTO MAY. SUPPORT ON JULY BEANS IS $4.94, THEN $4.73. RESISTANCE IS AT $5.15, THEN $5.36.

SUPPORT ON JULY MEAL IS $134.07, THEN $126.37, RESISTANCE AT $141.77, THEN $149.47.

SUPPORT ON JULY OIL IS AT $19.33, THEN $18.31, RESISTANCE AT $20.35, THEN $21.37.

JULY BEAN TREND: NEUTRAL. SUPPORT $4.73, RESISTANCE $5.36.

JULY MEAL TREND: NEUTRAL. SUPPORT $126.37, RESISTANCE $149.47.

JULY OIL TREND: NEUTRAL. SUPPORT $18.31, RESISTANCE $21.37.

FOR THE WEEK OF 03/19-04/02: WHEAT:

MOVING AVERAGES ARE TURNING UP ON WHEAT ALSO. RSI IS IN THE 60'S. SEASONALS ARE DOWN INTO JUNE. SUPPORT ON CHICAGO JULY IS AT $2.83, THEN $2.63. RESISTANCE AT $2.98, THEN $3.14. SUPPORT ON KANSAS CITY JULY IS $3.10, THEN $2.97. RESISTANCE IS AT $3.24, THEN $3.37. SUPPORT ON MINNEAPOLIS JULY IS $3.53, THEN $3.42. RESISTANCE IS AT $3.64, THEN $3.75. JULY WHEAT TREND: NEUTRAL. SUPPORT $2.67, RESISTANCE $3.14.

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