Experts: Snowfall will be 61-80 inches

When it comes to lake-effect snow, the most important factor is not global warming.
It's Big Lake warming.

That's why Ernie Ostuno, a National Weather Service meteorologist, believes the West Michigan lakeshore will get an average amount of snowfall -- most of it the lake-effect variety -- this winter.

"I expect 80 to 100 inches in Muskegon County, which is normal," Ostuno said.

In Grand Rapids, the big-name weather-guessers are a foot or two apart on their annual predictions. Some foresee less snow than average, some say more, but all say there are too many variables to be certain.

Lake-effect snow is generated when cold air blows over a warmer lake. With our warm autumn (we've only had a couple of hard freezes), Lake Michigan is somewhat warmer than normal.

That means cold fronts should produce more snow, right?

Not if they're not cold enough. Here we are in the last week of November and West Michigan has hardly had a trace of snow.

Ostuno expects the majority of the lake-effect snow in Muskegon County to fall between the last week of November and the first week of January. According to National Weather Service records, December and January are the snowiest months for Muskegon County.

Other than the small amounts of snow that fell late last week, it's been anything but a white November. Muskegon County usually gets some measurable amount of snow, including some substantial amounts like the 15.6 inches that fell in November 2005 or the whopping 25.7 inches that dumped on the area in 1995.

The last time we went through a whole November without measurable snow came in 1999, kicking off a season that produced one of the lowest snowfall totals in our history.

In Grand Rapids, WZZM-TV meteorologist George Lessens looks north to the polar ice cap, noting that sea ice "melted to unprecedented levels" over the summer. He thinks this winter "might be influenced by global warming."

For Lessens, it adds up to a snowfall of 65 inches, about 7 inches below average, and warmer-than-normal temperatures.

National Weather Service meteorologist Bill Marino peers at the same set of observations and comes to a different conclusion.

Marino agrees that global warming is real. He says evidence is mounting that man is causing it by dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

But Marino expects 80 inches of snow, mostly based on a pattern of cooling Pacific Ocean waters known as La Nina. Weather, says Marino, is far too complex to squeeze into a tidy little prediction box.

Global warming hardly means every winter in Michigan will be warm.

"It's more complicated than anyone can figure out. They use super-computers, and they still don't have enough information to figure it all correctly."