Cornwall South East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators
for the new Cornwall South East constituency, the 'South West' area
and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes
(what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating
to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are
those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator

Seat

South West

All GB

Party Winner

CON

CON

CON

Economic Position

10° Right

8° Right

0°

National Position

11° Nat

4° Nat

0°

EU Leave %

58%

53%

52%

British Identity

26%

27%

29%

Good Health

45%

47%

48%

UK Born

96%

92%

88%

Good Education

39%

40%

39%

Good Job

48%

50%

51%

High SEC

50%

52%

51%

Average Age

53.0

50.5

48.5

ABC1 Class

50%

54%

53%

Cornwall South East ranks #150 for "Leave",
#230 for "Right" and #196 for "National"
out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below.
The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education,
Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme
indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic

Cat 1

Cat 2

Cat 3

Cat 4

Cat 5

Economic Position

Very Left

Left

Centrist

Right

Very Right

National Position

Very Int

International

Centrist

National

Very Nat

EU Leave %

Very Remain

Remain

Balanced

Leave

Very Leave

Census

Very Low

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator

CensusQuestion

Definition / Included Census Categories

Party Winner

–

Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus

Economic Position

–

Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.

National Position

–

National position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.

Cornwall South East: Map

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had
the new boundaries for Cornwall South East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the
district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based
on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts
and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies.
So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015
from the period 2012-2015.
For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party.
A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply
general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which
means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election.
To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled,
whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election
turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general
election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call
these strong and weak parties respectively.
The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes
proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes,
but only 10,000 general election
votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated
to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat.
For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool
and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer
of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

List of old seats forming part of Cornwall South East

Old seat: Cornwall North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cornwall North,
as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cornwall North

Transfer-adjusted Results

District

Ward

Electorate2017

New Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

Cornwall

Altarnun

2,493

Cornwall South East

1,134

252

455

0

0

0

0

5

1,846

Cornwall

Bodmin St Leonard

3,679

Bodmin and St Austell

1,066

495

1,152

0

0

0

0

9

2,722

Cornwall

Bodmin St Mary's

4,104

Bodmin and St Austell

1,272

500

1,241

0

0

0

0

24

3,037

Cornwall

Bodmin St Petroc

3,840

Bodmin and St Austell

1,314

321

1,184

0

0

0

0

23

2,842

Cornwall

Bude

6,363

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

2,009

575

2,102

0

0

0

0

22

4,708

Cornwall

Camelford

3,144

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

1,292

242

785

0

0

0

0

7

2,326

Cornwall

Grenville and Stratton

3,560

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

1,268

254

1,101

0

0

0

0

10

2,633

Cornwall

Lanivet and Blisland

3,063

Bodmin and St Austell

1,185

188

888

0

0

0

0

6

2,267

Cornwall

Launceston Central

3,159

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

956

398

975

0

0

0

0

8

2,337

Cornwall

Launceston North and North Petherwin

3,682

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

1,338

270

1,094

0

0

0

0

22

2,724

Cornwall

Launceston South

2,908

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

992

323

820

0

0

0

0

17

2,152

Cornwall

Padstow

3,482

Bodmin and St Austell

1,409

256

900

0

0

0

0

10

2,575

Cornwall

Poundstock

3,707

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

1,549

266

908

0

0

0

0

21

2,744

Cornwall

St Issey and St Tudy

3,320

Bodmin and St Austell

1,235

215

989

0

0

0

0

18

2,457

Cornwall

St Minver and St Endellion

2,711

Bodmin and St Austell

1,361

173

444

0

0

0

0

28

2,006

Cornwall

St Teath and St Breward

3,115

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

1,181

291

800

0

0

0

0

33

2,305

Cornwall

Stokeclimsland

3,124

Cornwall South East

1,449

234

603

0

0

0

0

25

2,311

Cornwall

Tintagel

3,148

Bideford, Bude and Launceston

1,108

222

993

0

0

0

0

7

2,330

Cornwall

Wadebridge East

3,131

Bodmin and St Austell

1,245

374

676

0

0

0

0

21

2,316

Cornwall

Wadebridge West

3,117

Bodmin and St Austell

1,475

301

524

0

0

0

0

7

2,307

Total

68,850

25,838

6,150

18,634

0

0

0

0

323

50,945

The full details of these calculations are given on the
Cornwall North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Cornwall South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cornwall South East,
as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cornwall South East

Transfer-adjusted Results

District

Ward

Electorate2017

New Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

Cornwall

Bugle

1,083

Bodmin and St Austell

412

192

180

0

17

0

0

0

801

Cornwall

Callington

3,811

Cornwall South East

1,730

720

307

0

65

0

0

0

2,822

Cornwall

Gunnislake and Calstock

3,683

Cornwall South East

1,378

980

305

0

63

0

0

0

2,726

Cornwall

Liskeard East

4,028

Cornwall South East

1,484

761

667

0

69

0

0

0

2,981

Cornwall

Liskeard North

1,439

Cornwall South East

543

259

238

0

25

0

0

0

1,065

Cornwall

Liskeard West and Dobwalls

3,445

Cornwall South East

1,228

564

703

0

55

0

0

0

2,550

Cornwall

Looe East

2,793

Cornwall South East

1,235

486

229

0

117

0

0

0

2,067

Cornwall

Looe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos

3,811

Cornwall South East

1,396

600

762

0

63

0

0

0

2,821

Cornwall

Lostwithiel

3,455

Cornwall South East

1,683

544

269

0

61

0

0

0

2,557

Cornwall

Lynher

3,426

Cornwall South East

1,427

502

552

0

55

0

0

0

2,536

Cornwall

Menheniot

3,252

Cornwall South East

1,437

453

383

0

135

0

0

0

2,408

Cornwall

Rame Peninsular

3,898

Cornwall South East

1,700

644

467

0

74

0

0

0

2,885

Cornwall

St Cleer

3,675

Cornwall South East

1,476

546

639

0

60

0

0

0

2,721

Cornwall

St Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray

3,299

Cornwall South East

1,638

497

254

0

53

0

0

0

2,442

Cornwall

St Germans and Landulph

3,519

Cornwall South East

1,532

476

542

0

55

0

0

0

2,605

Cornwall

Saltash East

3,243

Cornwall South East

1,465

596

276

0

63

0

0

0

2,400

Cornwall

Saltash North

3,387

Cornwall South East

1,285

548

621

0

53

0

0

0

2,507

Cornwall

Saltash South

3,322

Cornwall South East

1,111

602

691

0

55

0

0

0

2,459

Cornwall

Saltash West

3,433

Cornwall South East

1,338

508

644

0

52

0

0

0

2,542

Cornwall

Torpoint East

3,098

Cornwall South East

1,018

577

647

0

50

0

0

0

2,292

Cornwall

Torpoint West

3,203

Cornwall South East

1,529

511

285

0

45

0

0

0

2,370

Cornwall

Trelawny

3,592

Cornwall South East

1,448

483

676

0

52

0

0

0

2,659

Total

71,895

29,493

12,049

10,337

0

1,337

0

0

0

53,216

The full details of these calculations are given on the
Cornwall South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cornwall South East

The new seat of Cornwall South East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Cornwall South East

District

Ward

Electorate2017

Old Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

Cornwall

Altarnun

2,493

Cornwall North

1,134

252

455

0

0

0

0

5

1,846

Cornwall

Callington

3,811

Cornwall South East

1,730

720

307

0

65

0

0

0

2,822

Cornwall

Gunnislake and Calstock

3,683

Cornwall South East

1,378

980

305

0

63

0

0

0

2,726

Cornwall

Liskeard East

4,028

Cornwall South East

1,484

761

667

0

69

0

0

0

2,981

Cornwall

Liskeard North

1,439

Cornwall South East

543

259

238

0

25

0

0

0

1,065

Cornwall

Liskeard West and Dobwalls

3,445

Cornwall South East

1,228

564

703

0

55

0

0

0

2,550

Cornwall

Looe East

2,793

Cornwall South East

1,235

486

229

0

117

0

0

0

2,067

Cornwall

Looe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos

3,811

Cornwall South East

1,396

600

762

0

63

0

0

0

2,821

Cornwall

Lostwithiel

3,455

Cornwall South East

1,683

544

269

0

61

0

0

0

2,557

Cornwall

Lynher

3,426

Cornwall South East

1,427

502

552

0

55

0

0

0

2,536

Cornwall

Menheniot

3,252

Cornwall South East

1,437

453

383

0

135

0

0

0

2,408

Cornwall

Rame Peninsular

3,898

Cornwall South East

1,700

644

467

0

74

0

0

0

2,885

Cornwall

Saltash East

3,243

Cornwall South East

1,465

596

276

0

63

0

0

0

2,400

Cornwall

Saltash North

3,387

Cornwall South East

1,285

548

621

0

53

0

0

0

2,507

Cornwall

Saltash South

3,322

Cornwall South East

1,111

602

691

0

55

0

0

0

2,459

Cornwall

Saltash West

3,433

Cornwall South East

1,338

508

644

0

52

0

0

0

2,542

Cornwall

St Cleer

3,675

Cornwall South East

1,476

546

639

0

60

0

0

0

2,721

Cornwall

St Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray

3,299

Cornwall South East

1,638

497

254

0

53

0

0

0

2,442

Cornwall

St Germans and Landulph

3,519

Cornwall South East

1,532

476

542

0

55

0

0

0

2,605

Cornwall

Stokeclimsland

3,124

Cornwall North

1,449

234

603

0

0

0

0

25

2,311

Cornwall

Torpoint East

3,098

Cornwall South East

1,018

577

647

0

50

0

0

0

2,292

Cornwall

Torpoint West

3,203

Cornwall South East

1,529

511

285

0

45

0

0

0

2,370

Cornwall

Trelawny

3,592

Cornwall South East

1,448

483

676

0

52

0

0

0

2,659

Total

76,429

31,664

12,343

11,215

0

1,320

0

0

30

56,572

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cornwall South East.
Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those
used by the Boundary Commissions.