Friday, June 14, 2013

It was June 6, 2011, 67 years to the day after
Generals Eisenhower and Bradley ordered the combined allied troops to begin
storming the beaches of Normandy, France in what was the beginning of the end
for Adolf Hitler’s “1000 year” Reich. Coincidence? Absolutely. Because all
we’re talking about is the 2011 Rule 4 Amateur draft. I was sitting nervously
on my couch when Bud Selig announced that the Indians were on the clock. The
2011 draft was universally held as one of the most talented in years, and the
Indians had the #8 overall pick. It would be almost difficult to screw up a
top-10 pick in a draft that loaded, but if ESPN’s Keith Law and other “experts”
were to believed, the Indians were about to do just that. Most of the so-called
“experts” had the Indians selecting a low-ceiling, high-floor collegiate arm
like Taylor Jungmann or Jed Bradley. A safe, signable pick, but a completely
uninspiring choice that would have been a waste of the #8 pick in the draft.
I had recently published a couple of articles pining for the selection of prep
shortstop Francisco Lindor if he was still on the board,
or flamethrowing
high schooler Archie Bradley if Lindor wasn’t around.
Well, Bradley went 7th overall to the Arizona Diamondbacks, leaving
Lindor (and the gaggle of college arms) on the board for the Indians at #8. As
the seconds ticked off the clock, I got that all-too familiar feeling in the
pit of my stomach. The feeling that most Cleveland fans get when their team is
on the clock; the feeling that something is about to go terribly wrong. But
when the always-excitable Bud Selig read off the Indians’ selection, it was
high school shortstop Francisco Lindor. I let out a yell of excitement, and got
down to business writing a celebratory article about the Indians making what I
hoped and believed was the best selection possible for the future of the
franchise.

Lindor signed right at the deadline in 2011 for an
overslot bonus of $2.9 million. He reported to short-season Mahoning Valley in
time to play in 5 games, collecting 6 hits in 19 at bats with the Scrappers
during his professional debut. It was a brief taste of professional baseball
for the switch-hitting prodigy, but enough to get his feet wet. The Indians
aggressively assigned the 18-year old to low-A Lake County to open the 2012
season, and Lindor responded by hitting a very respectable .257/.352/.355 with
6 HR, 42 RBI and 27 SB in 122 games for the Lake County Captains. The low-A
Midwest League is a notoriously difficult environment for hitters, so for the
young Lindor to put up that line while at the same time providing Gold
Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, you know the Indians had to be happy with
their young prodigy. Lindor came into the 2013 season as the consensus top
prospect in the organization, and a top-10 overall guy in all of baseball. The
Indians had Lindor stick around in big-league camp during nearly all of spring
training, getting him valuable experience in a major league clubhouse before
assigning him to the high-A Carolina Mudcats for opening day. Like the Midwest
League, the Carolina League is known to be friendlier to pitchers than hitters.
But like in the Midwest League, Lindor is more than holding his own here in
2013. He’s appeared in 63 games for the Mudcats so far this season, and is
hitting a solid .296/.371/.399 with a HR, 21 RBI, 4 triples and 15 stolen
bases. Probably the most impressive stat for the 19-year old is the 28 walks to
just 29 strikeouts that he’s accumulated this season. That kind of plate
discipline for a 19-year old in the Carolina League is nearly unheard of. And
when you consider that Lindor’s lofty prospect status is built primarily on his
defense, not his offense, you begin to see why the Indians are so excited for
their shortstop of the future.

I caught up with Lindor a couple of weeks ago when
the Mudcats were visiting the Potomac Nationals here in Virginia. I got to
watch him take infield before the game, an experience I can only describe as
baseball pornography. Lindor took a couple dozen routine groundballs, then
proceeded to take balls far to his left and right, ranging far up the middle
and deep in the hole. Bored with these seemingly routine tasks, Lindor then
started fielding balls between his legs and behind his back. He would flip the
ball to 2nd with his hands, glove, and I think I even saw him kick a
ball over. It was a beautiful sight, and I stood there with Mudcats radio
play-by-play announcer Darren Headrick, simply awestruck at the sight of Lindor
fielding groundballs. When I expressed my feelings to Headrick, he simply chuckled,
shook his head and said, “He does this every day. It’s incredible.”

Unsurprisingly, when I asked Lindor about his
favorite thing on the baseball field, his answer centered on defense. “Turning
double plays; that’s the most fun play that’s out there. Getting a groundball
is always fun, but when you can help out your pitcher by getting two outs on
one play, that’s awesome.” Lindor is a very good hitter, but he’s an
exceptional defender, and when you’re watching him in the field whether it’s
before or during the games, it’s clear that he enjoys his ability to be
creative on the defensive side of the game.

In addition to being named to the Midwest League
All-Star team in 2012, Lindor was one of the Indians two selections for the MLB
Future’s Game during MLB All-Star weekend last year. I asked Lindor about the
experience playing with potential future stars from around baseball. “It was an
honor representing the Indians, representing Puerto Rico and representing my
family,” said the young shortstop. It’s a virtual certainty that Lindor will
again be one of the Indians representatives to the Futures Game in 2013, so if
you haven’t had a chance to see him play, that game will be televised as part
of All-Star weekend. Get your DVRs ready, because it’s an experience that you
won’t want to miss.

As expected, Lindor had nothing but great things to
say about Mudcats manager Dave Wallace. Wallace was the skipper for the
Mahoning Valley Scrappers in 2011 and then for the Lake County Captains in
2012, so he’s had the pleasure of managing the athletic young shortstop for his
entire professional career. “I haven’t had any other manager; he’s awesome.
He’s a great guy, keeps the dugout loose, has fun, respects the game and
respects us and that’s what he asks out of us. To respect the game, respect him
and respect each other and respect the clubhouse. He’s a great guy; humble, and
I’ve been with him since day one. He’s awesome.” The Indians are lucky to have
someone like Wallace managing a talent like Lindor, as he’s a perfect
personality to get the most out of the talented shortstop and help speed his
development towards the big leagues.

Talking to Lindor, I was incredibly impressed by the
teenager’s maturity and confidence. There’s very little that Francisco Lindor
cannot do on a baseball field, and he knows it. That’s not to suggest that
Lindor is cocky or overconfident; far from it. But he’s appropriately confident
for a player of his age and ability, and is already a leader in the clubhouse
despite his relative inexperience. Part of that leadership ability comes from
Lindor’s experience with the major league team this spring. I asked him what he
learned from the Indians in Goodyear, and Lindor responded, “I had a blast; I
got to know the big leaguers and they made it pretty comfortable for me, and I
learned a lot from them. It’s just a game; those guys go about their business,
making sure they take care of their job and be consistent every day. Taking
every pitch the same way, the same approach in the field and spending every day
trying to get better.” Consistency is a theme for Lindor; it’s obvious he has
the talent to succeed at the highest level of the game; he just needs to add
strength/size to his frame and be more consistent. He’s created a catchphrase
for himself, “Lindor B.C.” As in “Lindor, Be Consistent.” Coming soon to a
bumper sticker near you.

Along the same lines, when I asked Lindor if he was
working on anything specific this season, he just said that “I’m working on
everything, improving every aspect of my game. Every single thing I do, I want
to get better at.” Confident, but not cocky, knowing that he has to improve but
also well-aware that he has the talent to succeed at the highest level of the
game someday.

Despite his age and relative inexperience, we could
see Lindor on the shores of Lake Erie as early as midway through the 2014
season. With shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera becoming a free agent prior to the 2015
season, that timeline lines up perfectly for the Indians. If Lindor can get his
feet wet at the big league level in 2014, it’s not unreasonable to think that
he could become an everyday shortstop in The Show as a 21-year old the following
season. He’s a potential Gold Glove defender who should more than hold his own
with the bat, a potential four-tool player who should be above-average in
everything except the power department. That’s an all-star package if he plays
up to his potential, and Lindor seems prepared to work as hard as it takes to
reach that lofty potential.

Thursday, June 06, 2013

Draft Day is finally upon us, Indians fans. It’s
time for the team to reap the harvest that was planted the day after the Justin
Verlander game last year, when the club started the epic collapse that found
them picking 5th overall in the first round tonight. That collapse
and the corresponding top-10 pick did allow the Indians to sign two marquee
free agents and “only” lose their sandwich and 2nd round picks as
opposed to their 1st round pick in this year’s draft, so I suppose
we can use tonight as a silver lining for the horror we all endured watching
Chief Wahoo’s Tribe tailspin towards the bottom of the American League
standings last season.

In case you missed my more in-depth profile of the
players that the Indians will be considering with the #5 pick tonight, you can
find it here. Today, I’m going to sketch out for you how I think the top 1/3 of
the draft is going to go, including the only pick we really care about, the
Indians selection at #5. Here’s hoping for another Lindor or Sabathia and not
another Beau Mills or Michael Aubrey.

1. Houston
Astros: Jonathan Gray, RHP-Oklahoma

The Astros strategy with the #1
pick last year was to draft a talented but signable player and use the savings
later in the draft. After his positive test for Adderall, the uber-talented
Jonathan Gray might just be that player. He’s a candidate for 1-1 based on his
talent alone, and now that the Astros will have some leverage in negotiations,
they could snag the draft’s best player at a discount. It’s a perfect world scenario
for the hapless Astros and their fans. If Gray makes it known that he won’t
sign at below slot for 1-1, look for the Astros to take UNC 3B Colin Moran

2. Chicago
Cubs: Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford

The safest pick in the draft, Appel
doesn’t repeat last year’s slide down the 1st round. Appel will be
the 1st player drafted in 2013 to make it to the majors, and could
be a mainstay in the Cubbies rotation as soon as next season. Gray might have a
slightly higher ceiling, but Appel has a much higher floor and is already close
to a finished product. Cubs fans will be too drunk in the bleachers at Wrigley
to notice, but Theo Epstein will make this pick with a smile on his face.

3. Colorado
Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B-San Diego

Kris Bryant’s raw power unleashed
in Coors Field? Sign me up to watch that show. Providing Bryant can make a
couple of minor tweaks to his swing, he could hit 40 HR annually in the thin
Denver air as soon as 2015.

4. Minnesota
Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X
High School (Texas)

This is pretty much the only player
I’ve seen them on in mock drafts all spring. Naturally, that means they’ll
probably take someone else, but I’m sticking with the concensus on this one.
The old Twins probably would have taken Shipley here, but these aren’t your
older brother’s Twins anymore. No longer do they prefer “safe” picks like Ohio
State’s Alex Wimmer. Pitchability and changeups are relics of years gone by,
and the Twins are focusing on radar gun readings and upside. Stewart and his
high-90’s fastball fit that bill, so it’s easy to see him heading to the Twin
Cities with the #4 pick here.

So here’s the pick we really care
about. Scouts are torn on Frazier’s eventual ability to stick in CF. Some see
him as a surefire CF down the road, and some see a shift to an outfield corner.
His proponents see a classic gym rat; a guy who plays all-out, 100% on every
play, who has enormous tools and will always get the most out of his talent.
His detractors see a tweener, a guy who’s undersized for the rigors of a big
league season and an eventual LF. Put me in the pro-Frazier camp. I see the
next Grady Sizemore, hopefully this time without all of the injuries. He has
the best bat speed in the draft, and that’s a talent that simply can’t be
taught. He’s a tireless worker, a plus runner and has a plus arm. Even if he
does have to shift to RF, he has the potential to be an impact player in the
middle of a major league batting order. He’s not the “safe” pick here and he
won’t be able to help the Indians in the near future, but Frazier has the
highest superstar potential of anyone on my hypothetical board here at #5
overall. If Frazier is on the board and Gray/Appel/Bryant are all gone, I hope
the Indians pull the trigger on the young Georgia outfielder.

If the top 4 picks shake out like I’ve
predicted here, the Indians will also be considering Shipley and Moran in
addition to Frazier.

6. Miami
Marlins-Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

Moran is an advance bat who will
stick at 3B as a professional. Whether or not the skinflint Marlins want to pay
enough to sign him is another story, but he’s the best player available in our
scenario, so I’ve got him going to South Beach. But now that Jeffrey Loria has
his taxpayer funded (empty) stadium, he’ll probably have his baseball people
under a strict budget, and they might be the first team in history to pass on a
1st round pick entirely because of the cost.

7. Boston
Red Sox-Austin Meadows, OF-Grayson High School (Georgia)

Meadows is a crosstown rival of
Clint Frazier, and has a pretty high upside in his own right. He’s a potential
monster in the middle of a lineup, and has the size and strength to hit 40 HR
in The Show someday. Like Frazier, he’s still very raw and won’t be gracing
Fenway Park anytime soon, but is a potential all-star if he does refine his
approach and work his way up the ladder to the major leagues.

8. Kansas
City Royals-Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada

Royals fans would have to be
thrilled with this scenario, as one of the top-3 college arms in the draft falls
to them at #8 overall. Shipley is a converted SS, an excellent athlete who
still has a lot of room to grow as a pitcher. He’s already an impressive arm,
working in consistently in the mid-90’s with his fastball and complimenting it
with one of the best changeups in the draft. He has only scraped the surface of
his talent on the mound, and could end up as a solid #2 starter when all is
said and done. Kansas City needs pitching in the worst way, and Shipley would
be both BPA and fill a need at #8 overall.

I’ve seen the Pirates on McGuire
pretty much exclusively this spring. He’s an incredible catch and throw guy
behind the plate, a guy who is getting an 80 grade with his arm as a high
schooler. That’s nearly unheard of, and the fact that he’s popping sub-1.90 to
2nd is incredible. He’s not nearly as advanced as a hitter, but the
Pirates are hoping that will progress at the plate with more experience. This
is an unprotected pick that the Pirates received when they were unable to sign
Mark Appel last year, so they absolutely have to sign whoever they choose here.
McGuire is both talented and signable, and that fits the bill for the Buccos
here at #9.

Ball is the top player in the
entire Midwest this year, a 6’6” lefty
who throws a fastball in the mid-90’s. He’s a great athlete and was a two-way
star in high school, to the point where some teams are considering Ball as an
outfielder. That kind of velocity from a lefty tends to stick on the mound
though, and he’s a very Toronto type of player so I see them taking him as a
pitcher here at #10. There are some mechanical inconsistencies in his delivery
that need to get cleaned up, but the athletic Ball should be able to make those
corrections under the tutelage of a professional pitching coach.

So that’s how I see the top 10 going tonight. I
think the Indians will end up with Frazier, Moran or Shipley, and I’ll be
pretty happy with any of those three. I think Frazier has the highest upside of
those three, but he also has the most risk. Chris Antonetti and company are
looking for the best player available in the first round, and they’re going to
have to select an impact talent because the Indians won’t be picking again
until the #79 slot (the 5th pick in the 3rd round).

Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Well Tribe fans, it’s that time of year again. The MLB Rule 4 Draft is set to take place this Thursday evening, and your Cleveland Indians hold the 5th pick in the first round. Because of MLB’s asinine rules artificially tying draft picks to free agents, the Indians will not pick again until #79 overall, having forfeited their “competitive balance” sandwich pick as well as their 2nd round pick with the signings of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. But you didn’t come here for (another) rant on the Collective Bargaining Agreement; you came here to learn about the player the Indians could potentially end up with at #5 overall in the draft.

Much like the past two seasons, this will be part one of a two-part draft miniseries. Today, we’ll take a look at some of the options that the Indians will consider with their pick. Tomorrow, I’ll put up my mock draft of the first 10 picks in the draft. Because let’s be honest, very few of us care who Oakland selects with pick #24 in the first round, right? So without further delay, here are 11 players that the Indians might be thinking about with their first pick in the draft come Thursday night.

Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford
Appel was a lot of peoples’ pick to go #1 overall in last year’s draft to the Astros. He was a consensus top-5 guy in last year’s class, but due to his agent (Scott Boras) and expected bonus demands, he slid to Pittsburgh at #8 overall. The Pirates took a pretty good run at signing him, offering him an over-slot bonus of $3.8 million, but ultimately couldn’t pay him enough to play in the Steel City. So here we are again with Appel a heavy favorite for the top pick, and the Houston Astros weighing the merits of drafting (and paying) him.

Appel has top of the rotation potential. He’s a big kid at 6’5” 215lbs, and leverages that frame to generate a fastball that sits comfortably between 93-97 and touches 99. He commands the pitch well, and generates good plane making the pitch especially difficult to handle down in the zone. He complements the heater with two plus secondary offerings in his slider and changeup. Both have a future-70 grade on them, and both can flash at that level already. The slider sits between 85-87 with impressive life and tilt, while the changeup is a very deceptive pitch that just fades down and away from righthanders.

He has a very smooth, clean, easily repeatable delivery that helps with his command and allows him to go deep into games.
Combining that impressive arsenal with his size and strength, and you can see why Appel is considered to be the top talent in this year’s draft. The wildcard is his agent and bonus demands, much as they were back in 2012. If a team drafts Appel and doesn’t sign him, he’d have to go pitch in the independent leagues as he has no further college eligibility. That would seem to put the leverage on the side of the team selecting him. But if a team drafts a player in the top-10 rounds and he doesn’t sign, the team loses the bonus pool associated with that pick. So that gives Appel a little leverage after all. If it were any other team besides Houston selecting #1 overall, I’d say he was a sure thing to go 1-1.

Jonathan Gray, RHP-Oklahoma
Like Appel, Gray is a big, strong RHP who makes his living off of his impressive fastball. The 6’4” 240lbs Sooner can touch triple digits on the radar gun, and was sitting comfortably between 94-97 MPH this spring. He compliments the fastball with a slider that already grades as a plus pitch, and should round out to a plus-plus offering. It looks almost exactly like his fastball coming out of his hand, showcasing very impressive late action and tilt. The best professional comp I can think of for the pitch is Randy Johnson; not saying Gray is at the Big Unit’s level yet of course, but the fastball/slider combo is similar to what has Johnson headed to the hall of fame. Gray was able to buzzsaw through most collegiate lineups with just his fastball/slider combo, so his changeup lags behind those two offerings. The change has good potential, but his command of the pitch isn’t where it needs to be to succeed as a professional. Repetitions and experience will help make the pitch more consistent, and there’s no reason why it couldn’t mature into a potential out pitch for Gray.

Gray’s delivery is smooth and consistent, but he does land a bit stiff on his front leg from time to time. It’s not a major red flag, but when he does it his control suffers, so it’s something to keep an eye on. He’s a good athlete and experience with a professional pitching coach should be able to handle the issue with little difficulty. He does a great job maintaining his stuff deep into games, and the coaching staff at Oklahoma has done a fine job protecting his talented right arm by limiting his pitch counts.

Gray threw a bit of a wrench in this process when he tested positive for a banned substance (Adderall) prior to the draft. Some think that means he will fall out of the top-3, and some think that now Houston is more likely to take Gray because the positive test means they can secure his immense talent at a discount at 1-1. His overall ceiling might even be higher than Appel’s, but he’s also less of a sure thing. He’s one of the top 3 talents in the draft, and could go anywhere from #1 overall to #6 as an absolute floor. I don’t see him getting past the Indians if he’s on the board at #5 though.

Trey Ball, LHP-New Castle High School (Indiana)
The top prep player in the state of Indiana, Ball is one of the best lefthanded pitchers available in the draft. The tall, lanky southpaw can run his plus fastball up to 97 MPH, and sits comfortably in the low to mid 90’s. The fastball comes at hitters on a steep downward plane, and they tend to beat it into the ground when they do make contact. It’s a two-seamer with nice arm-side run, and has the potential to be a plus-plus pitch at the major league level. He compliments the fastball with a curveball that’s raw but promising and a changeup that flashes plus. Both secondary pitches are inconsistent at this stage of Ball’s development, but he has the potential to have three pitches that grade at plus or better.

Ball is a very good athlete, and some teams are even looking at him as a hitter in this draft. I don’t see that happening, as 6’6” lefties who throw in the high-90’s have a tendency to stick on the mound. His delivery is repeatable but has a little bit of herky-jerkyness to it, which helps him hide the ball well and create deception for the hitter. He weighs in at right around 180lbs, and there’s plenty of room on his frame to add strength and have his fastball velocity tick up another notch or two. His long arms and legs keep him slow to the plate, and he hasn’t shown off much of a slide step. He still needs to shore up his command and work on his consistency, but it’s an enticing package that’s likely to come off the board in the first 10 picks of the draft this year.

Kohl Stewart, RHP-St. Pius X High School (Texas)
Stewart is from a football-rich area of Texas, and has a full scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M. A&M will have a decent QB under center for the next two years though, so Stewart might want to consider giving this pitching thing a try. The 6’3”, 190lbs righty sits between 92-94 with his fastball, and touches 97. The pitch has nice arm-side run, and is especially tough on righties. He has an impressive slider, and is developing both a curveball and changeup. The fastball and slider could be plus-plus pitches at the professional level, and both the curve and change should be at least average.

Stewart has some issues with his delivery that affect his command, but nothing serious that can’t be fixed with additional experience and a professional pitching coach. He’s an excellent athlete and should be able to make adjustments as needed. He’s not a finished product by any means, and there’s a lot of risk involved in an arm as raw as Stewart’s. But there’s also a lot of upside in there, as much as any pitcher in the draft. Someone is going to pull the trigger on Stewart in the top half of the draft in the hopes that his immense potential can someday headline the top of a major league rotation.

Ryne Stanek, RHP-Arkansas
Stanek is a 6’4”, 180lbs righty who was seen as a potential top-3 pick going into this season. He was coming off of a solid summer with Team USA, and the 20-year old was seen as one of the top starters in the collegiate ranks. He had a solid but not dominant 2013 season with the Razorbacks, and while he’s not seen as a top-3 pick anymore, he should go comfortably in the top-10.

Stanek’s fastball sits in the 94-96 MPH range, and has nice arm-side run from his ¾ arm slot. He compliments the fastball with a slider, curve and changeup. The slider is a very horizontal pitch, running hard across the strike zone. It’s his best secondary offering, and one of the better sliders in the draft. His curveball is a hard, tight breaker that could develop into an above-average pitch. His changeup shows potential, but needs to be a more consistent pitch in order to be a reliable offering at the professional level. It’s a starter’s arsenal, and the four-pitch mix helps Stanek keep hitters off balance.

Stanek has a high leg kick and lands somewhat stiff on his front leg because he extends so much so early in his delivery. He has raised his arm slot a little since high school, from below ¾ to a more traditional ¾ slot, and it’s helped make his slider a more effective pitch. His command and control weren’t where they needed to be this spring, and it’s something that’s going to have to improve at the professional level. Still, his stuff is impressive, and should have him coming off the board in the top 10 picks this week.

Kris Bryant, 3B-San Diego
Most evaluators feel that Bryant is the top bat in this year’s draft, and it’s easy to see why. Bryant has passed the 30 HR mark for this season, a total that dwarfs many team totals in college baseball this year. The plus-plus raw power is (as you’d expect) his best tool, as it’s a current 70 and should play at a 70-75 level by the time he reaches the upper levels of the minor leagues. His swing is long but simple, as he hits from a wide base with virtually no stride. He basically just uses a toe-tap for timing purposes, then unleashes his hands through the hitting zone. He has plus power to all fields, driving the ball the other way better than you’d expect for a power guy.

As you’d expect from a power guy, Bryant’s hit tool suffers due to his max effort approach. He can hit a fastball a mile, but struggles a little with advanced offspeed stuff. His swing, while simple, is still long, and there’s some swing and miss in him. But if he hits .250 with 100+ K and 35-40 HR in the middle of a major league batting order, the team that drafts him is still going to be quite happy with their selection.

Bryant is an average college third baseman, and many scouts see a move off the position in his future. He’s an average runner with a plus arm, so right field seems like the logical eventual destination. But if the 6’5” 215lbs Bryant fills out much more, he’s going to be limited to 1B in the pros. That move would lower his overall ceiling, but as of now that is a worst-case scenario for Bryant. There’s a small chance he can stick at the hot corner, but his lack of range at 3B will likely see him shift to RF.

At the start of my evaluation process, I was really hoping that Bryant would fall to the Indians at #5 overall. I don’t think he’ll get there, as his massive power projection just doesn’t come around every draft and one of the top four teams (likely Colorado) will snap him up. But I’ve also cooled on him as I’ve watched video and read more in-depth scouting reports, as there’s a chance that his bat speed and swing won’t be as effective against major league pitching. I am pretty sure the Indians would take him at #5 overall if he’s there, but I’m no longer 100% sure I’d want them to.

Colin Moran, 3B-UNC
Moran is one of the more well-rounded players in the draft, and has long been rumored as a target for the Indians at #5 overall. In 248 at bats this year, the UNC product has walked 57 times while striking out just 21. He’s hitting .351/.478/.560 for the Tar Heels, with 13 HR and 85 RBI (both team-high totals). He has an advanced approach at the plate, doing a nice job with pitch recognition/selection. He has plus power and plus hitting ability, and has done it against some of the best competition that collegiate baseball has to offer.

Moran’s swing is the polar opposite of Bryant; he uses a narrow set up and a long stride to the baseball, which makes it a little more difficult to keep his weight back. He utilizes strong hip rotation to generate his power, but the swing has a lot of moving parts and is not as consistent as you’d like to see. His swing path can vary, as his hands don’t load from a consistent spot or level. Still, Moran makes it work, and he has the raw talent so that if a professional hitting coach wants to try and make a couple of minor tweaks, Moran should be able to make the necessary adjustments.

Defensively, Moran is better than Bryant at 3B but is not seen as a potential Gold Glover at the hot corner. He should be able to stay at 3B in the pros, but a move to 1B isn’t out of the question. He’s a below-average runner, so a move to the OF is unlikely.
A month ago, I thought B.J. Surhoff’s nephew would be a likely candidate for the Indians at #5 overall. But there’s a rumor going around from some pretty good sources (none of them mine, of course) that the Astros are considering taking Moran at 1-1 and offering him slot for the #4 pick to save money for the later rounds. If that happens, it could push one of the “Big Three” (Appel, Gray and Bryant) closer to the Indians at #5. The Astros did something similar in 2012, selecting Carlos Correa at 1-1 in order to get both a talented player and cost savings for later in the draft. Could it happen in 2013 as well? We’ll see very soon, but if it does then Moran could go first overall in the 2013 draft.

Braden Shipley, RHP-Nevada
Shipley is one of the top collegiate arms in this class, but is considered a tier below the top two of Appel and Gray. A converted shortstop, Shipley is actually fairly new to pitching. He became a full-time pitcher in 2012, so he probably has more room to grow than either Appel or Gray. Shipley’s fastball sits comfortably in the 92-95 MPH range, and has touched 99. He compliments the heat with a plus changeup, a pitch that usually requires a lot more experience on the mound to master. The pitch has excellent late fade away from righthanded hitters, and can be used to attack hitters on either side of the plate. His third pitch is a curveball that grades out as average, but should be able to improve with additional repetitions.

As you’d expect from a converted SS, Shipley is an athletic player who fields his position well. His athleticism helps him consistently repeat his delivery, and he has no major mechanical flaws. He can get a little out over himself at times due to his arm speed, but it’s not considered to be a major issue.
As I said, Shipley is considered to be a little behind Appel and Gray at this stage of their respective careers. But he does have more room to grow than either of those experienced arms, and the Indians do love their shortstops-turned-pitchers (see Josh Tomlin and Austin Adams). He’ll need a little more work to polish off his tools on the mound, but could mature into a solid #2 starter down the road. I haven’t heard any of the top four teams on Shipley, but he’ll likely at least be in consideration for the Indians at #5 overall.

Clint Fraizer, OF-Loganville High School (Georgia)
Fraizer is one of the top prep bats in this year’s draft class, possessing both plus raw power and raw hitting ability. Fraizer generates a ton of bat speed from his strong wrists and quick hands, leading to some incredible tape-measure HR in high school. His swing has some natural loft, which only helps to generate backspin and power. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that could leave him susceptible to advanced offspeed stuff, but destroys fastballs and should improve his pitch recognition/selection as he matures.

Defensively, Fraizer is a CF in high school but could end up shifting to RF as a professional. He’s an average to above-average runner with good instincts and a plus arm. He could be an average defender in CF or a plus defensive OF if he has to shift to right. There’s a little concern over his arm due to a bout with tendonitis, but he’s expected to make a full recovery and regain full velocity. His style of play would remind Indians fans of Grady Sizemore; all-out, 100% effort on every play. Scouts rave about his intangibles, and he’s a guy who leads by example every day that he’s on a baseball field.

The one drawback on Fraizer is his size. I’ve seen his height listed anywhere from 5’11” to 6’1”, but most who’ve seen him are pretty sure he’s shy of 6 feet. He’s a compact 190lbs, and while he’s a good athlete for his size, that frame doesn’t leave a lot of projection. Scouts and front office types usually take high school kids with the expectation that they will continue to grow and fill out, but that doesn’t seem like it will be the case with Fraizer.

Indians GM Chris Antonetti fueled speculation that the Indians are high on Fraizer when he flew down to Georgia to personally meet with the youngster at the end of May. He offers a tantalizing package of tools for a franchise that has been unable to draft and groom a home-grown OF talent since…what, Brian Giles? Fraizer is expected to be on the board at #5, but I wouldn’t rule out Minnesota snatching him up at #4 overall. If he’s there, he’ll be an enticing option for an Indians organization that remains light on potential impact OF.

Austin Meadows, OF-Grayson HS (Georgia)
Meadows is a high-ceiling athlete who is still fairly raw as a baseball player, but offers an alluring package of tools and athleticism that scouting directors can dream on. He’s a two-sport athlete who is committed to Clemson, and could probably play baseball or football at the collegiate level. He currently stands a solid 6’3” 200lbs, but his big, athletic frame will allow him to add another 20-40lbs once he fills out. He is a centerfielder now, but will likely end up in an OF corner once he adds all of that weight.

Meadows features a short, simple swing from the left side of the plate and has above-average pull power. As he progresses and gets bigger, scouts expect that pull power to turn into plus power from CF-RF. He hits out of a wide base with an almost imperceptible stride, keeping his swing path short and to the baseball. The swing doesn’t generate a lot of loft though, which could limit his eventual power ceiling. He’s struggled with wood in limited exposure, but his mechanically sound swing has most talent evaluators confident of an above-average hit tool down the road.

One concern about Meadows is his fringe-average arm, which would likely limit him to LF defensively if he has to move off of CF. His scouting reports have me picturing a more muscular version of Michael Brantley. A nice player, no doubt, but not a guy you’d take at #5 overall in the draft. It’s up to the Indians (and everyone else) to decide if Meadows size and strength can generate some additional power with minor swing tweaks, or if his power projection falls to the “it is what it is” category. The difference between a 30/30 player in LF and a 10/30 player in LF is massive, and players like Meadows have a tendency to get scouting directors either promoted or fired. With the power projection as an unknown, I’d prefer the Indians stay away from him in the 1st round of this year’s draft.

Hunter Renfroe, OF-Mississippi State
Hunter Renfroe was born to play right field. He has prodigious power, a cannon for an arm, and above average speed. He also has a tendency to swing and miss a lot, but he’s improved enough on the strikeouts from his sophomore to junior year to convince scouts that the power will play at the next level. Renfroe hit just .252/.328/.374 with 51 K his sophomore year, but broke out to the tune of a .352/.440/.634 line with 15 HR, 58 RBI and just 39 strikeouts as a junior. His pitch selection improved greatly, walking 34 times after drawing 21 walks as a sophomore. His stock rose appropriately, from a fringe 1st rounder to a potential top-10 pick.

Renfroe will always have a better power tool than hit tool. He handles fastballs well, but struggles with quality breaking balls. He hits out of a wide open setup, and sometimes struggles to get closed in time to handle pitches on the outer half of the plate. It’s a small mechanical flaw that can likely be addressed by a professional hitting coach. He’s going to strike out at the professional level, but he’s also going to hit a lot of home runs, and those tend to balance out the ledger.

Renfroe will be limited to RF as a pro, but he’s going to be an above-average RF. He has above-average speed, takes good routes to the ball, and is a good athlete. He also has a plus arm which will be a weapon in RF. Renfroe will almost certainly be on the board for the Indians at #5, but that’s probably a little too high to pull the trigger on the slugging OF.