Middle East

Mubarak is no more, relegated to "the dustbin of history". He was blown
away by one of the greatest mass movements in history. The 18-day
volcano was crowned by a colossal mobilisation of six million Egyptians
on the streets. Mubarak was forced to flee.

He completely miscalculated when he appeared to defy the clamour for his
removal in his infamous TV broadcast on the night of Thursday 10
February. His defiance came as a surprise, not just to the masses but to
his cronies in the military and the US state department who saw that he
was finished. The US defence secretary Robert Gates, in close
collaboration with the Egyptian army tops, dictated to the dictator that
he should delay no longer in departing to Sharm el Sheikh.

Failure to leave threatened a mass insurrection which would have put in
jeopardy the whole basis of the regime. Like a colossal restrained
Goliath, mass anger was such that the movement began to march out of
Tahrir Square in the direction of the presidential Palace, crowds began
to surround the parliament, the TV stations and other power points of
the regime. Such a movement threatened incalculable consequences for the
possessing classes.

Most ominous for the generals, the power behind Mubarak’s throne, was
that their very base, the army, particularly soldiers in the square, had
begun to be affected by the ‘virus of revolution’. Army officers, the
junior ranks, began to march in solidarity with the revolution. The
state machine, in other words, threatened to break in their hands. Also
of great significance – particularly for the future of the revolution –
was the mass entry of the working class onto the scene.

All the suppressed and stoked-up anger of the exploited masses flooded
to the surface with demands for big wage increases, independent trade
unions, etc. Up to now, what we have witnessed in Egypt – despite the
massive movements – is a powerful element of political revolution. This
has removed the crowning expression – the dictator – of the regime. But
we have not yet had a "second revolution", a social movement by the
working class in particular, which would remove the power of rotten
landlordism and capitalism. This is the only way to successfully
conclude the Egyptian revolution.

Wishful thinking is the most deadly mistake in politics, particularly in
periods of high tension, in a revolution. While there was great joy that
the dictator had been removed, the social issues which fuelled the
revolution remain unresolved. The fundamental basis of the regime –
particularly its monopoly of state power – remains intact. The generals,
just days after Mubarak’s departure, gave a glimpse of their mailed fist.

The Egyptian masses would make a profound mistake to place any trust in
those new ‘democrats’, particularly in the state machine – the army
generals, their cronies, big business and the landlords – who furnish
the basis of the regime. At best, these forces hanker after a
‘controlled’ democracy, something less even than the Erdogan regime in
Turkey. The army has, in effect, carried through a ‘soft coup’ following
Mubarak’s demise. Elections are promised in six months but only after
the military has ‘approved’ the new constitution. No trust or faith
should be placed in the army tops. The independent power of the masses
must be built to exert the necessary pressure.

Under the guise of a return to ‘normal’ a clean up of Tahrir Square took
place. This was an open attempt to prevent the right of free assembly –
as if things can return to normal when the lava from this volcano has
not yet cooled. Political prisoners and detainees should be immediately
released.

It must not be forgotten either that the army – particularly the tops
like Field Marshal Tantawi – is bound hand and foot, as an integral
part, to rotten Egyptian landlordism and capitalism. Like their
counterparts in the military in Pakistan, the army tops themselves own
huge swathes of formerly state-owned industries which were privatised by
Mubarak in the past two decades.

They have a material interest in the maintenance of the present regime.
Many of them undoubtedly hanker for a return of the Mubarak regime with
power ultimately vested in their hands or their representatives in a
Bonaparte ‘presidency’. They own private army golf ranges, clubs and
huge gated estates which are a totally different world to the festering
slums of the mass of the Egyptian working class and poor.

The only guarantee of a consolidation of real democracy lies through the
maintenance of the splendid mass movement and the pressure which this
can exert in building a new Egypt. Firstly, there is the vital issue of
independent trade unions through which the masses can express their
views and pressure for change. It is not an accident that the army is
already attempting to limit and frustrate the building of trade unions.
The state trade unions at the top are made up of lackeys of Mubarak;
they must be removed and representatives of the workers elected to these
positions.

But this is not enough. Democratic committees of action in the workplace
– already there in embryo in the occupations that have taken place in
recent days in a number of factories – must be urgently built. These
must be linked to the neighbourhoods – particularly to the poor,
working-class neighbourhoods – in an attempt to create a real parliament
of the masses from below. In all real revolutions the mass of workers
and poor farmers – the real driving force in any mass upheaval – strive
to build an independent means of expression and action.

Of course, the mass of the population has been without rights for
decades – 60 years in the case of the Egyptian masses – so the
attainment of democracy will be seen as a vital step forward in changing
their lives. Therefore, the Egyptian masses must inscribe on their
banner the fight for a real democratic parliament, a constituent
assembly, which can draw up not just rules for elections but the
programme to change the conditions of the Egyptian masses. The
parliament can only be convened – if it is really to represent the
majority of the population – by mass revolutionary struggle with the
programme to change every aspect of the lives of the Egyptian masses.
The representatives of the workers and poor farmers should form the
majority in this parliament or constituent assembly.

The masses should be vigilant not to allow latter-day converts to
democracy – the ‘liberal’ capitalists like Mohamed ElBaradei, etc – to
elbow them aside. The working class should build mass committees which
could form the basis for and oversee democratic elections. No president,
but power vested in a single parliamentary body! A second chamber is
invariably used by the capitalists to frustrate the democratic popular
will. A president is a putative dictator even in the most established
‘democratic’ parliaments, with powers to push aside the democratic will.
The Egyptian revolution was above all a youth and workers’ revolution.
Therefore the right to vote at 16 should be implemented as well as
series of measures benefiting women.

The revolution is not over – it has only just begun. The Google worker –
Wael Ghonim – who played a big part in mobilising people for the 25
January demos and then was arrested by the army, symbolised the stage of
this revolution – its strengths and weaknesses – as soon as he was
released from prison. When confronted with the fact that 300 Egyptian
youth and workers had been killed by the police and hired thugs of
Mubarak he broke down in tears. This in turn was a big factor in
mobilising new layers of the working class onto the street.
Nevertheless, Ghonim expressed the heartfelt sentiments of Egyptians
when he declared the day after Mubarak exited: "Egypt will be heaven in
ten years."

And he is right, but only if the sources of inequality and suffering of
the Egyptian masses – landlordism and capitalism – are eradicated. The
country, on the basis of Mubarak’s 30 years, is full of crony
capitalists – which go together with an impoverished society – who
enriched themselves with billions of looted state property. But an
indication of how far Egypt lags behind is reflected in the level of
literacy, which is no more than 66% and where “a good education for the
majority remains a dream”. Moreover, Egypt has an annual gross domestic
product per capita of just $2,270, whereas the figure for the US is
$35,000. Therefore, the Egyptian masses must also create their own power
to eliminate the obstacles to realising their dreams. This will be a
socialist planned economy for Egypt linked to a socialist confederation
of the Middle East.