Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Nothing Surprising Here!

Day's like yesterday (Dow down 399) and today (Dow down 382) almost demand that we say something here on the blog (not that it takes much to get us saying stuff here on the blog).Regular readers -- given all of the space we've devoted herein to the topic for months -- should not be the least bit surprised, or rattled, by all of the volatility. As you've gathered, our present view (which is always subject to change, based on the evidence) of the current state of affairs is that we remain entrenched in a long-term bull market. And, make no mistake, there hasn't been a bull market, ever!-- regardless of how bullish the data -- that hasn't seen its share of volatility.Judging by the number of hits, I don't think this week's message -- given recent volatility -- has received nearly enough attention thus far. Which is perfectly fine as long as those who skipped it aren't in need of a narrative to help sort it all out. Just in case you missed it and you need some perspective, here's a snippet:

To repeat myself, if market participants (in the aggregate) are indeed fixated on whether the new Fed chair comes off tame or aggressive on the policy rate when he addresses Congress today, we should expect the market to take back recent gains, and some, in the near-term; despite the rally that would likely follow a "hands-off" presentation.

Fed chair Powell sits before Congress again tomorrow. If he's at all like his cohorts who hit the speaking circuit last week, he'll attempt to talk up the market with soft language on policy going forward. While that may or may not calm the waters to end the week, we're guessing there's more of a shakeout needed to get the market (participants in the aggregate) focused on the economic reality of the day.I encourage you to take in the whole thing... click here...Lastly, if you think the present correction (so far) is historically significant, read this...