PFT's Week Six picks

Through four weeks, Rosenthal and I both were doing well in the game-by-game picks contest. He had nailed 43 of 62, and I’d picked correctly 41 of them.

In Week Five, the bottom dropped out.

Rosenthal managed to break even at 7-7. I had a dreadful 4-10 showing. Yes, 4-10.

He’s now 50-26. I’m 45-31.

Hopefully, I can gain some ground this week. Or at least get five games right.

Dolphins at Packers

Florio’s take: The Packers are banged up,
and the Dolphins are desperate. With or without quarterback Aaron
Rodgers, who has a concussion, the Packers won’t be improving on their
3-1 record in the last four games against Miami, which came after losing eight times in a row to the
FIns. Look for the Dolphins to grind it out methodically, and to get on
the right side of .500 after 13 days to prepare for their return to
Lambeau Field.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Packers 14.

Rosenthal’s take: The Packers can’t blame injuries for everything.
Their backups have mostly played well. Injuries don’t account for
play-calling, red zone play, clock management, Charles Woodson’s
decline, or the lack of a difference-making defender outside of Clay
Mathews. This is a matchup of truly inept special teams. It’s also a
major gut check game for both squads. The Dolphins have more healthy
players. I suspect they have more guts, whether Aaron Rodgers plays or
not.

Rosenthal’s pick: Dolphins 19, Packers 17.

Chargers at Rams

Florio’s
take: No one expected the Rams to be 2-3. Everyone expected it from
the Chargers, who have now done it four years in a row before turning it
on down the stretch. Winning in St. Louis won’t be as easy as the
Chargers think, but with quarterback Philip Rivers winging it all over
the place and with St. Louis rookie Sam Bradford having no one to wing it to (or, for you finicky English majors working at Best Buy, no one to whom to wing it), the Chargers should be able to outscore the Rams, absent
another special-teams meltdown.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 31, Rams 17.

Rosenthal’s take: The Chargers already lost three games on the road, matching their total losses from the 2009 season. (They were 7-1 on the
road last year.) The Rams already have two home wins, doubling
their total wins from ’09. These teams are clearly different this year,
but some things stay the same. Philip Rivers is playing at an MVP level
and a talent shortage in St. Louis’ secondary is finally starting to
show up.

Rosenthal’s pick: Charger 31, Rams 21.

Ravens at Patriots

Florio’s
take: Though we’ve seen plenty of teams lay eggs after their bye week,
the Patriots will be as focused and prepared as ever in their first
game after the trade that sent Randy Moss back to Minnesota. And the
Patriots will want to give a little something back to the Ravens, who
went to Gillette Stadium in the 2009 playoffs and took a lawnmower to
the Pats’ collective grass ass. Get ready for Aaron Hernandez to emerge
as an offensive rookie of the year candidate as a major play in the Pats’ new beardless passing game.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 19.

Rosenthal’s take: If nothing else, trading Randy Moss gives Patriots
coach Bill Belichick good fodder for his “no one believes in you”
pregame talks. Against Miami, Belichick pointed out how no in-house
Patriots Football Weekly writers picked the Patriots to win. The same
may happen this week with the Ravens hoping for a repeat of their
playoff beatdown from a year ago. When the Patriots’ offense shows how
capable it is without Randy Moss, Belichick may ship the disbelieving
writers to Minnesota, too.

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 27.

Browns at Steelers

Florio’s take: In 1989, the Browns came
to Pittsburgh and won big, 51-0. A full 21 years later, it’s time for
the Steelers to exact full and complete revenge. With Colt McCoy in at
quarterback for the Browns and Ben Roethlisberger back from suspension
for the Steelers, this one could get out of hand, quickly.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 51, Browns 0.

Rosenthal’s take: Browns rookie quarterback Colt McCoy didn’t look
remotely ready for pro football for most of the preseason. And he was facing
the backups’ backups then. Now, McCoy gets real against the best
defense in football, coming off a bye. The Browns should seriously take a
page out of the ’06 Panthers playbook and roll with the Wildcat as
their base offense. Josh Cribbs can play quarterback and Peyton Hillis can dole
out punishment. It’s more likely Ben Roethlisberger can enjoy not
having to work much in his return to action.

Rosenthal’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 6.

Chiefs at Texans

Florio’s
take: The Chiefs faced the Colts with too much of a nothing-to-lose
mentality, taking risks that they simply didn’t need to take in order to
compete with an Indy team that isn’t as good as it was a year ago. The
Texans are fading after their Daytona 500-style showing in Week One
against Indy. This one is a toss-up. Literally. Heads, Chiefs.
Tails, Texans.

Florio’s pick: Texan 20, Chiefs 13.

Rosenthal’s pick: The Chiefs secondary is one of the few groups in the
league that can confidently shut down the Texans passing attack.
Brandon Flowers should make the Pro Bowl and Brandon Carr has seriously
improved. The Texans secondary is one of the few groups that Matt
Cassel can pass against. At least a little. Add it up, and you are
going to have a lot of pissed off Texans fans Sunday afternoon.

Rosenthal’s take: Chiefs 24, Texans 20.

Lions at Giants

Florio’s
take: The Lions have gotten their win for the first half of the year,
and the Giants are in the process of turning things around. Sure, that
38-point victory over the Rams could wake up a moribund franchise, but it
won’t be easy to go into New Jersey and steal one, even with
the Giants suffering more than a few injuries. Giants receiver Hakeem
Nicks has been too good, and the Lions don’t have anyone who can
shut him down.

Florio’s pick: Giants 24, Lions 10.

Rosenthal’s take: The Lions and Giants both changed the perception of
their seasons dramatically last week. The Lions are suddenly a team
that can blow someone out. They can produce a thriving passing game
with their backup quarterback. They are (gasp) fun to watch. The
Giants defense has wildly improved despite injuries to Mathias Kiwanuka,
Kenny Phillips, and Keith Bulluck. Maybe it’s time folks start
noticing how much better Eli Manning is than when he won the Super
Bowl.

Rosenthal’s pick: Giants 34, Lions 26.

Falcons at Eagles

Florio’s
take: Quarterback Mike Vick desperately wants to welcome his former
team to Philly, and the Eagles need him. Even though Kevin Kolb led the Eagles to methodical win over a desperate 49ers team, the Falcons are a cut above the 0-5 Niners. The
Philly defense was torched a bit by San Fran, with receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis each gaining more than 100 yards. That could spell
trouble against receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Though this one could be
a little bit of a shootout (which is better than calling it a
dogfight), the absence of left tackle Jason Peters should provide the
difference for the Falcons.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 33, Eagles 30.

Rosenthal’s take: The difference in Atlanta this year: defense. Despite
so-so play from free agent pickup Dunta Robinson, the Falcons are a
top-ten unit. A great defensive line rotation and deep linebacker group
is the key. The Eagles are still trying to figure out who they are,
especially on defense. Stopping Atlanta’s run game will be a challenge,
but we’d take LeSean McCoy over Michael Turner at this point. Bring on
another Eagles quarterback controversy!

Rosenthal’s pick: Eagles 20, Falcons 17.

Seahawks at Bears

Florio’s
take: Helping the Bears climb to 4-1 has been a soft schedule. The schedule
stays like oven-fresh bread on Sunday, when the Jekyll-and-Hyde Seahawks come to town.
So far, the ‘Hawks have been good at home, dreadful on the road. Even
with a bye week to prepare, the Seahawks will continue on a track that
could lead to an 8-8 finish — which could be enough to win the NFC
Worst.

Florio’s pick: Bears 27, Seahawks 10.

Rosenthal’s take: With a soft schedule coming up, the Bears have a great
chance to reach midseason at 7-1 or 6-2. Their defense has been
consistently above average. It’s hard for the Seahawks to hope for
better than 8-8 because they haven’t been competitive on the road.
Seattle gets to try out Marshawn Lynch this week, while the Bears get
Jay Cutler back. Advantage Bears.

Rosenthal’s pick: Bears 21, Seahawks 14.

Saints at Buccaneers

Florio’s
take: Last year, the Saints marched into Tampa and spanked the Bucs,
38-7. Later in the season, the Bucs rolled into the Superdome and stole
a 20-17 win in overtime, thanks in large part to the right leg of
Garrett Hartley. In 2010, the Saints aren’t the same Saints, and the
Bucs aren’t the same Bucs. But the Saints still have enough firepower
to keep an up-and-coming team down.

Florio’s pick: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20.

Rosenthal’s take: Drew Brees keeps saying everything’s good with the
Saints. The numbers tell a different story. New Orleans is scoring 12
fewer points-per-game than last year, they aren’t stretching the field,
and the defense isn’t forcing turnovers. Brees takes the Saints on
long, slow drives that too often end in mistakes. The Bucs defense has
improved, but it’s hard to tell how much. The rush defense is among the
league’s worst and they’ve faced the following quarterbacks: Jake
Delhomme, Matt Moore, Charlie Batch, and Carson Palmer. The Saints will
look closer to good this week.

Rosenthal’s pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 21.

Jets at Broncos

Florio’s take: In
1998, the Jets stood on the cusp of their first Super Bowl berth since
1969. To get there, they had to beat the Broncos in Denver. Despite
leading at the half, the Jets failed to finish the job. So it’s
fitting, I suppose, that with the Jets in the best position to finally
get back to the Super Bowl in 12 years, they get a chance to go back to
Denver for the third time since that fateful day and pound the crap out
of the Broncos. (By the way, look for receiver Santonio Holmes to have a
huge day as his timing with quarterback Mark Sanchez improves.)

Florio’s pick: Jets 30, Broncos 13.

Rosenthal’s take: The Broncos return after bruising games in Tennessee
and Baltimore left them wounded. A nondescript defense has lost many
of its best players, just in time to face a quietly efficient Jets
offense. These are the bizarro Jets. They give up way too many
third-and-long conversions. Their pass defense may be the team’s weak
spot. This is a dangerous game for the Jets since Kyle Orton can exploit
their secondary, but New York’s overall balance and talent should win
out.

Rosenthal’s pick: Jets 24, Broncos 22.

Raiders at 49ers

Florio’s
take: There’s a new Bay of Pigs in the NFL. Though the Raiders are
right about where everyone thought they would be after five games, the
Niners have performed miserably. Owner Jed York thinks they’ll win the
division; the first step will be to win a game. Look for the Niners to
get it done, finally.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 30, Raiders 20.

Rosenthal’s take: Raiders coach Tom Cable loves to fire his team up with
bulletin board material. This week, he should just print out the
betting line. The winless 49ers are the fourth biggest favorite of the
week. What’s it going to take for people to realize San Francisco just
aren’t that good? (I’m looking at you, Jed York.) In the immortal words of
Jim Mora, “Playoffs?! Playoffs?! You kidding me?” The 49ers should
just hope they win a game.

Rosenthal’s pick: Raiders 19, 49ers 17.

Cowboys at Vikings

Florio’s
take: After the Vikings trounced the Cowboys in the 2009 playoffs,
Dallas linebacker Keith Brooking complained that the home team had run
up the score. Thus, the looming rematch took on a higher level of
significance. But with the Vikings and Cowboys currently struggling to
win games, they’ve got bigger problems than worrying about petty notions
of revenge. With Randy Moss making his return to the
Metrodome, the place will be a-rockin’. The Cowboys would be wise to
not go a-knockin’.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 31, Cowboys 17.

Rosenthal’s take: Great schaudenfraude game. [Editor’s note: For some reason, I take satisfaction and pleasure in the fact that Rosenthal doesn’t know how to spell “schadenfreude.”] Thirty fan bases can sit back
and enjoy one of their least favorite teams go to 1-4. And the winning
team only goes to 2-3! Dallas has a losing record, but has mostly
looked unlucky and stupid. The Vikings have looked unlucky, stupid, and
simply bad for long stretches. This is a week Minnesota’s offensive
tackles and cornerback depth will get exposed. Again.

Rosenthal’s pick: Cowboys 26, Vikings 24.

Colts at Redskins

Florio’s
take: When Mike Shanahan was coaching the Broncos, he lost six of
eight games to Peyton Manning. And Shanahan’s Broncos teams generally
were better than his current team in D.C. Then again, Manning’s Colts
teams were better then than his current Colts team. But Peyton knows
how to show up in prime-time games, especially when he’s facing the
prospect of finishing his career with an 0-2 record at FedEx Field.

Florio’s pick: Colts 28, Redskins 21.

Rosenthal’s take: The Redskins are impossible to figure out. They are
15th in offensive yards, but 24th in points. Their defense is dead last
in yards allowed, but have given up the ninth fewest points. Donovan
McNabb has received some early MVP buzz, yet he struggles in three out
of four quarters he plays. The Colts remain the Colts. Even with a
softer Indy defense than normal, we’ll take our chances with Peyton
Manning against this Redskins secondary.

Rosenthal’s pick: Colts 30, Redskins 24

Titans at Jaguars

Florio’s
take: At first blush, this is one of those mediocre Monday night
games, a short-term buzz kill sandwiched between a foursome of great
games featuring Pats-Fins and Vikings-Jets on the front end and
Giants-Cowboys and Texans-Colts on the back. But with the Titans
and Jags at 3-2 (tied with the Colts and Texans), the winner of this
game takes a huge step toward competing for an unlikely division title.
If the right Titans team shows up, Tennessee should be able to do in
Jacksonville what the Colts couldn’t.

Florio’s pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 13.

Rosenthal’s take: These teams are built similarly. They both want to be
tough, run the football, and stop the run. The Titans are better
at it. Both defensive backfields are vulnerable, but I like Kenny
Britt’s chances of getting deep better than Mike Sims-Walker on Monday
night. It’s too much to expect Good David Garrard to show up three
weeks in a row.

Dolphins at Packers
Florio’s take: The Packers are banged up, and the Dolphins are desperate. With or without quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has a concussion, the Packers won’t be improving on their 3-1 record against Miami, after losing eight times in a row to the FIns. Look for the Dolphins to grind it out methodically, and to get on the right side of .500 after 13 days to prepare for their return to Lambeau Field.
Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Packers 14.
We’re 3-1? Awesome. With Rdogers we win, without, we Lose. The Dolphins are overrated. Tell me one good team they’ve beaten? haha

As a Redskins fan, I couldn’t agree more with both analyses’….Except that I fear the pass defense will get torched and the score will be even higher, like Colts 42-24, all passing……DeAngelo it’s time to put your money where your mouth is. Unless, of course, Orakpo destroys Peyton Manning.

Steelers winning 51-0 is insane to me. Once its 35-0 the starters get pulled, so that 51 is a stretch. I definitely feel that Baltimore wins @ New England. The Ravens and the Jets are the two best teams in the NFL right now, and I expect both of them to win this week. New England’s first week without Randy Moss could be ugly. They’re lucky that Ed Reed won’t be back yet though. I think Ravens D will come up with some stops, the Patriots D will come up with less stops. Ravens 24 Pats 17.

51-0???? I’m not a Steelers or Browns fan, but are you out of your flipping mind???
Oh, and erm Rosenthal, the Lions blew out the Rams at home. They still suck, especially on the road, and the score won’t be that close.

“We’re 3-1? Awesome. With Rdogers we win, without, we Lose. The Dolphins are overrated. Tell me one good team they’ve beaten?”
If it’s any consolation, after the Dolphins win on Sunday, they still won’t have any victories over good teams.

I guess u guys didn’t watch the same ravens – pats playoff game last year . They Ravens will own the moss-less pats and BB will wish he didn’t get caught in spy gate to get a better advantage . Aside from that , give the Ravens some credit , they beat both jets and steelers on the road , and I as a Ravens fan fear them way more than the cheatriots .
Go Ravens !!!

“Browns will win. The kid’s name is Colt McCoy, that is a legendary football name. The legend begins this Sunday.”
Come on man, even if your the biggest Browns fan alive you cant possibly believe that. McCoy was so terrible all pre season they almost released him. and you want him to waltz into Pittsburgh and face the leagues best defense in an emotional first game back for Ben? Its going to be ugly and as a Browns fan you should consider it a win for you guys if both McCoy and Hillis escape that game without being injured

No Florio! Don’t pick the Titans! They win every time you pick against them! Nooo! Oh well, VY, CJ and co. have got this offense humming and will get a win in Jax, as Vince always shows up in primetime.
Go Titans!

So it’s what the Colts couldn’t do, not what the Jaguars did. And when they win at home against the Titans at home it’ll be more of the “titans being off”. Keep it coming florio, your ignorance sustains me.

dlmcc0909 says:
“Come on man, even if your the biggest Browns fan alive you cant possibly believe that. McCoy was so terrible all pre season they almost released him. ”
10/14 and 13/13 in the last few preseason games, not too bad.
He’ll be fine.
Florio picking the Steelers by 51 should be a clue that it’s going to be a game.

As a GB fan, not playing against the WildCat much if at all makes me think that the Phins will be able to use that too thier andvantage. If GB can make the Phins pass more I would like our chances. For GB to make the Phins pass more we would need to be up by about 2 TDs I don’t know if either team will be ahead that much at any point during that game.

The Vikings have looked unlucky, stupid, and simply bad for long stretches. This is a week Minnesota’s offensive tackles and cornerback depth will get exposed. Again.
__________________
This coming from the guy who has looked unlucky, stupid and simply bad for this long stretch I refer to as “life.”
Unlucky – re: Gregg’s looks – the guy looks like a total chode and has a lisp that would make Mike Tyson blush.
Stupid – Lol, this one’s too easy. Have you ever read his error-filled posts filled with his idiotic opinions?
Simply bad – Too easy again. His writing and posts are simply bad. All there really is to say about them.

“the Packers won’t be improving on their 3-1 record against Miami, after losing eight times in a row to the FIns. ”
Um, the Packers beat the Fins 34-24 on 10/22/06 – which is the last time they played.
Fins will win on Sunday. Just dont know where that 8 losses in a row came from.

Atlanta is giving up 86 yards per game on the ground, whereas Philly is giving up 125… Atlanta’s offense is averaging 18 more yards per game than Philly’s on the ground… Yeah, taking LeSean McCoy over Michael Turner TOTALLY makes sense, especially with Philly going with their 2nd best QB who only dinks and dunks underneath. MAKES TOTAL SENSE.

DailyNorseman says:
October 14, 2010 2:03 PM
“We’re 3-1? Awesome. With Rdogers we win, without, we Lose. The Dolphins are overrated. Tell me one good team they’ve beaten?”
If it’s any consolation, after the Dolphins win on Sunday, they still won’t have any victories over good teams.
__________________________________
I don’t know, “3-1” is pretty good in this league so far.

It doesn’t matter if you don’t like an AFC South matchup. I don’t give a sh*t about Steelers-Ravens, Pats-Jets or Cowboys-Giants. Know why? They aren’t my team. You media guys talk about the same 9-10 team every freakin year. It’s getting old.

AngeloMixLA says:
October 14, 2010 2:06 PM
I guess u guys didn’t watch the same ravens – pats playoff game last year . They Ravens will own the moss-less pats and BB will wish he didn’t get caught in spy gate to get a better advantage . Aside from that , give the Ravens some credit , they beat both jets and steelers on the road , and I as a Ravens fan fear them way more than the cheatriots .
Go Ravens !!!
——
I guess you dont realize that last years game means absolutely nothing this Sunday.
I mean hell, the Browns almost beat the ravens.

What a shocker, Rosenthal picks the Vikings to lose. Two questions Gregg, who in the Vikings organization made out with your wife, and what is the deal with spelling Gregg with two “g’s”. Seriously that is lame.

At first blush, this is one of those mediocre Monday night games? This looks like the most unappealing prime time matchup in years. Do they keep records for the lowest ratings for MNF games? ‘Cause this one might limbo under the record low.

I’m Steelers fan and I’m scared of the Browns this week. Pittsburgh has a way to play down to their competition, and with Ben being a little rusty, all it would take is two or three pick sixes and we have another check in the L column.

“btg19 says:
October 14, 2010 1:46 PM
When have the Vikings corners been exposed? The Vikings have the 3rd best pass D in football through the first quarter of the year.”
Did you sleep through the Jets game? Griffin is out for the year now and Cook won’t play this week – Asher Allen was picked apart on Monday night and he’ll be out there again Sunday! That’s who got exposed – Allen SUCKS!!!!!!!!!

bwisnasky says:
October 14, 2010 3:40 PM
My only question is how did Florio and Rosenthal get so incredibly egotistical to believe that anybody else in the world gives a rats patootie about their Pittsburgh/West Virginia inbred loving opinions?
You’re here aren’t ya?? Sheesh!

“ClayMath52 says:
October 14, 2010 1:42 PM
Dolphins at Packers
Florio’s take: The Packers are banged up, and the Dolphins are desperate. With or without quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has a concussion, the Packers won’t be improving on their 3-1 record against Miami, after losing eight times in a row to the FIns. Look for the Dolphins to grind it out methodically, and to get on the right side of .500 after 13 days to prepare for their return to Lambeau Field.
Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Packers 14.
We’re 3-1? Awesome. With Rdogers we win, without, we Lose. The Dolphins are overrated. Tell me one good team they’ve beaten? haha
”
I guess you weren’t really good at reading comprehension in school. He said 3-1 against Miami.
Didn’t Rodgers play against the Bears? I hope other Packers fans are a bit more intelligent than you. Look at the bright side, at least they won’t be able to execute you if you were in Texas!

I’m a life long Redskins fan, and if there’s any chance of them beating Manning, then they need to knock every Colt they can out of this game, and McNabb needs to get a couple of those deep td’s he’s been randomly throwing this year. Landry needs to play this game like he’s playing for his life, Orakpo needs to get as much pressure as he can and London Fletcher needs to go all London Fletcher, and tackle every person he can get his hands on. He’s the backbone of this Defence, and while he’s been playing good this season, he isn’t playing as good as he has in the past few years. Hail!

According to yall the Jaguars should 0-5 opposed to vying for the division lead. I love how every win by the Jags is lucky for them and due to some kind of folly of the other team. I mean after all could the Jaguars beat Peyton Manning and the Titans!

Florio won’t bet me +51 and browns… Come on florio – back up your talk!
Anyone who thinks Qb isn’t the key position – look at this game. With Seneca Wallace it would be a 3 point line (like ravens game where Hillis PWNED the stabby birds)

@KevinfromPhilly
As far as bad MNF matchups, I think it was like 8-10 years ago or so, Week 6, I think it was 0-5 Dallas and 0-5 Washington facing off against each other. Even the MNF announcers were talking about how, barring a tie, one of those two (at the time, sadly pathetic) teams was actually going to stop being winless.
@81megatron81
I’m pretty sure both Florio and Rosenthal picked the Lions over the Rams last week, although nowhere close to the actual score.

Kevin from Philly says:
October 14, 2010 3:16 PM
At first blush, this is one of those mediocre Monday night games? This looks like the most unappealing prime time matchup in years. Do they keep records for the lowest ratings for MNF games? ‘Cause this one might limbo under the record low.
————————————————–
And who gives a sh*t about Philly. I know you Eagles fans think people care about the Eagles, but not really. Win at least ONE championship first. That’s a good starting point before opening your traps.

whitecheddar33 says:
October 14, 2010 3:48 PM
You’re here aren’t ya?? Sheesh!
——————————-
Yes.. and I used to come here quite often.. to find out things like injury reports… trades… Florio actually used to be quite good at getting scoopage when he started out.. since he sold out, he does nothing except exhalt the Steelers and the Mountaineers…. so I don’t come here nearly as much as I used to. And personally, I have no use for anyone talking head’s opinions of what is going to happen in the future, because their opinion isn’t any more valid than my own is. Sheesh!

I am surprised that you are both taking the Patriots. I know they are tough to beat at home, they’ve won 11 straight regular season games at Gillette Stadium, but the Ravens clearly know how to beat them there. My question would be, how are the Patriots going to be able to get the passing game going without the threat of Moss? I think it will take them a few weeks to figure it out, unless Brandon Tate can step in and be a serious deep threat. I’m taking the Ravens over the Patriots. Look for Flacco to have a breakout game.

Florio says, “no one to whom to wing it” for the English majors working at Best Buy…
Actually numbnuts, some of us are English teachers working at schools as English teachers wondering how the phrase “no one to whom to wing it” makes any sense.