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Is a bloody civil war the fate now for
Zimbabwe?

Mail On Sunday

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Last updated at 12:52 AM on 23rd June 2008

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The decision by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
to pull out of this week's presidential election in Zimbabwe is all too
understandable.

Tsvangirai is one of the most courageous men in the
world. But with Robert Mugabe threatening murderous retribution, he knew that he
was condemning thousands of his supporters to death or terrible torture if he
went ahead.

This decision to abandon the contest involved
self-sacrifice from Tsvangirai. He was within a hair's breadth of the
presidency.

Morgan Tsvangirai's decision is understandable

Right up to the end, even in the face of Mugabe's campaign of terror, the
polls were going his way.

They showed that he has even more support, with approximately two-thirds of
the Zimbabwe people on his side, than he did when he fought the first
presidential contest back in March.

Now Mugabe will taunt Tsvangirai as a coward who lacked the courage and will
to fight the poll.

But Tsvangirai knew that Mugabe and his Zanu-PF thugs would never accept the
outcome. He knew that whatever happened they would announce a false result - and
then send the Zanu-PF death squads back into the countryside to punish his
supporters in the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

I visited Zimbabwe undercover last month and witnessed the bloody retribution
exacted on anyone suspected of supporting the opposition. The extent and
brutality of Mugabe's oppression was truly terrifying.

The knowledge of what would be unleashed made it impossible for Tsvangirai, a
profoundly peace-loving man, to go ahead.

Ever since his MDC party began nearly ten years ago, it has been based on
Mahatma Gandhi's principles of non-violence. Unlike other African liberation
movements, the MDC has never engaged in guerilla warfare, and always placed its
faith in the ballot box.

However, it would be wholly wrong to think that a violent confrontation has
been avoided. In many ways the decision to pull out of the election makes the
situation more perilous than ever.

For years Morgan Tsvangirai has been able to tell impatient supporters that
they must not fight back against Zanu-PF assaults and provocation because one
day they would take revenge through the ballot box.

That argument is no longer valid. Yesterday's decision means that the hope of
effecting change through democratic means has gone.

This means that many MDC supporters will now feel that they face just one
choice: between mute surrender or responding with violence themselves.

For this reason many intelligent observers now believe that a truly terrible
civil war may soon break out inside Zimbabwe, with several army units breaking
away and taking the side of Tsvangirai.

There is still hope that this desperate and bloodthirsty outcome can be
averted - but only if the international community takes urgent action.

So far international organisations such as the United Nations and the
Southern African Development-Community have gone down the path of collaboration
with Mugabe, giving him protection as he launched his series of frenzied attacks
on his own people.

Thanks to the inertia of the United Nations, China has been at liberty to
supply arms to Mugabe --murderous shipments which may well be used for genocide.

Meanwhile the reputable German company of Giesecke &amp; Devrient has
supplied the bank notes with which Mugabe bribes the army and pays his secret
policemen.

Today the United Nations Security Council meets in New York, and Zimbabwe is
finally on the agenda. It is essential that the UN at last spells out in clear
terms what it has never yet said: that Mugabe's reign of terror must cease, that
otherwise Zimbabwe will be thrown out of the community of nations and that
international monitors will be sent in to keep the peace.

If it fails to do this, Robert Mugabe's killers will be rewarded, and the
prospect of ethnic cleansing and genocide becomes more likely than
ever.

The unfolding of an African tragedy

Nobody can blame Morgan Tsvangirai for pulling out of Friday's presidential
run-off election in Zimbabwe.

This sick farce of a contest was never going to end in a fair result anyway.
Indeed, Mr Tsvangirai was almost suicidally brave to fight on for as long as he
did.

Yesterday's brutality by Mugabe's goons was the last straw.

Thugs from President Robert Mugabe's party attacked
Tsvangirai's supporters during a peaceful rally

A peaceful rally of Mr Tsvangirai's supporters was attacked by thugs in the
pay of the ruling Zanu-PF party† -† the latest outrage in an officiallyinspired
reign of terror.

Death squads have killed dozens of Mugabe's opponents. Relatives of prominent
opposition figures have been burned alive, raped or beaten. Thousands of
ordinary people suspected of being anti-Mugabe have had to flee their homes.

Meanwhile, Mr Tsvangirai has been arrested five times. Colleagues have been
thrown into jail on trumped-up charges. And food aid donated by the outside
world is misused by Mugabe to bribe supporters, while opponents starve.

So come what may, this election was always going to end in a gerrymandered
'win' for Comrade Bob, even though his demented rule has brought such
inflationary ruin to a once-prosperous country that last week a loaf of bread
cost five billion Zimbabwean
dollars.

But what makes this tragedy worse is the way this corrupt and murderous
tyrant has been allowed to get away with it.

Yes, other African nations show some concern. But until recently, shamefully,
most backed Mugabe to the hilt. Meanwhile, the diplomatic efforts of the UN, the
EU and the Commonwealth have always been pitifully inadequate.

For years, the people of Zimbabwe suffered, while the world looked on. Now
they have been cheated out of their last, best hope of peaceful, democratic
change. And all Africa is the loser.

Poor example Now where have we
heard all this before? Union warnings that pay restraint is 'unrealistic'...TUC
firebrands threatening to slash Labour's funding... a chancellor pleading for
moderate pay rises...

The events of the last few days would seem to echo the bad old Seventies,
when inflation went through the roof, economic stagnation was the order of the
day, unions sought huge pay deals and the Government could only beg them to
behave.

Of course we're still a long way from that predicament. If we keep pay
settlements under control, we should avoid stagflation. That is why Mr Darling
is right to urge a period of belt-tightening.

But before lecturing the unions, shouldn't he have a quiet word with his
fellow politicians?

Following their expenses scandal, MPs are seeking a tax-free allowance of
£150 a day† -† on top of their £61,820 pay† -† so they needn't bother with
expenses claims and can never again be caught abusing the system. How ripe.

Yes, we need to control inflation. But why should the unions practise
restraint, when self-serving Parliamentarians don't even know the meaning of the
word?

Cause and effectFor the first
time, the Pill is to be available on the internet, with no safeguards against
its sale to children.

Meanwhile, 29 per cent of secondary schools are now providing pupils as young
as 11 with 'sexual health services', including condoms, without telling their
parents.

At the same time, Britain has one of Europe's highest rates of teenage
pregnancies, abortions and sexual disease.

And of course it never occurs to our liberal, right-on, non-judgmental
educational establishment that value-free, moralitylite 'health services' in
schools just might have something to do with it.

World powers sound alarm over Zimbabwe

Yahoo News

1 hour, 3 minutes
ago

LONDON (AFP) - Britain led international cries of alarm over
Zimbabwe's violent electoral crisis after the main opposition leader all but
handed victory to President Robert Mugabe by quitting the run-off
race.

Both London and Washington said they were prepared to raise
their concerns in the United Nations Security Council on
Monday.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said Zimbabwe would lack
"legitimate" leadership if Mugabe stayed in charge, and accused him of using
violence to cling to power.

"A government which violates the
constitution in Zimbabwe... cannot be held as the legitimate representative
of the Zimbabwean people," Miliband said, referring to Mugabe's slowness to
hold a run-off after the March 29 election.

Miliband described the
violence as "state-sponsored on a very large scale with one very clear
motivation" -- to keep Mugabe in power.

Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition party, quit the presidential
election second round run-off on Sunday, saying increasing violence had made
a free and fair election impossible.

The United States joined other
powers in sounding the alarm over the reports of brutal violence ahead of
the vote that had been scheduled for June 27.

"The government of Zimbabwe
and its thugs must stop the violence now," White House spokesman Carlton
Carroll said in a statement, following reports that Mugabe loyalists had
beaten, burned and killed opposition supporters.

"The Mugabe regime
reinforces its illegitimacy every day. The senseless acts of violence
against the opposition as well as election monitors must stop."

South
African President Thabo Mbeki -- the Southern African Development Community
(SADC) mediator for Zimbabwe -- wants Mugabe and Tsvangirai to negotiate, a
spokesman for Mbeki told AFP, confirming media reports.

"I would hope
that that leadership would still be open to a process which would result in
them coming to some agreement about what happens to their country," Mbeki
said, according to the SAPA news agency.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
thought Tsvangirai's decision was a "deeply distressing development" that
did not bode well for the future of democracy in Zimbabwe, his spokesman
said.

Calling for an immediate end to the "campaign of violence", the
spokesman said in a statement that the UN was prepared to "work urgently
with SADC and the African Union to help resolve this political
impasse."

The European Union's foreign policy chief Javier Solana called
the election a "travesty of democracy."

Tsvangirai's withdrawal was
"understandable, given the unacceptable systematic campaign of violence,
obstruction and intimidation led by the Zimbabwean authorities," he said in
a statement.

Tsvangirai failed to clinch an outright majority in March
according to official results.

The opposition says more than 80 of
its supporters have since been killed in a campaign of intimidation ahead of
the vote and thousands injured.

The current chair of the 14-nation SADC
suggested the vote could be postponed until a later date, adding that it
would be "scandalous for SADC to remain silent on Zimbabwe."

"There
is no need to be ashamed in announcing that the presidential run-off should
be called off until further notice," Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa told
reporters.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner branded Mugabe as
"nothing but a crook and a murderer", saying Paris would not accept the
"fake election" of the 84-year-old.

Australian Foreign Minister
Stephen Smith said his government was considering imposing more sanctions on
Mugabe's regime.

And New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark branded the
election a "total farce".

"I think if South Africa was to withdraw
support it would have a pretty dramatic impact on what happens in Zimbabwe,"
she added.

MDC
followers divided over pull-out

HARARE - The rank-and-file MDC membership is sharply
divided after the party passed a controversial and far-reaching resolution
calling for a boycott of next Friday's presidential election
re-run.

Some of the MDC membership condemned the decision and called
it "blatantly inappropriate and a betrayal" while others† called it a
"superb decision" that would render the Mugabe regime totally
illegitimate.

The resolution was unanimously approved during the MDC
National Council meeting in a majority vote that approved a proposed boycott
of the June 27 presidential election run off.

The resolution
condemned Zanu-PF for "the savage pre-election attack on MDC supporters and
the slaughter of civilians in the country".

In a press briefing at his
Strathaven residence in Harare Sunday, the MDC leader, Morgan tsvangirai,
told reporters that his party had decided to boycott "this violent,
illegitimate sham of an election process".

Tsvangirai urged the United
Nations and African Union to intervene to prevent "genocide".

The
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission spokesman Utloile Silaigwana said the
commission was proceeding with preparations for the election because nothing
had been formally communicated to the electoral body by the MDC.

"He
has not formally communicated his withdrawal," Silaigwana said. "Mr
Tsvangirai needs to put his position in writing."

But Chamisa said:
"The ZEC will get the letter and the ZEC should not try to jump the gun.
They will get the letter. After all that decision was only made
today."

Mercy Kwaramba slammed the MDC resolution, maintaining it
"shockingly disregards key facts of the complex Zimbabwe conflict, including
Zanu-PF's aggression against the MDC and its murder of more than 70 MDC
supporters.

"It means these people died in vain," Kwaramba said.
"Boycotting the election is a betrayal of these fallen MDC heroes."

A
Zimbabwean who called the Zimbabwe Times from Atlanta in the United States,
said he was shattered by the decision.

"This is a clear victory for
Zanu-PF and for those who were campaigning for the Government of National
Unity."

In Harare staunch MDC supporter Shuwa Mbirimi of Rugare Township
said: "It's the best decision under the circumstances. Mugabe has threatened
that he will not accept the results if he loses. So what's the point of
having the election? I totally agree with president Tsvangirai."

He
was backed by Tendekai Moyo of Lochinvar who said it was pointless to have
the election when Tsvangirai's campaign was being foiled.

"They stopped
his rally today at the show grounds, they have impounded his bus and his
BMW, they have arrested him almost five times I think. No one wants to be a
polling agent, and they are saying they won't accept the election results.
So what's the point?"

Tsvangirai told reporters that he could not lead
his supporters like sacrificial lambs to slaughter by participating in the
election.

The MDC says at least 70 of its members have been killed since
March in a campaign of intimidation by Mugabe's government to scare
opponents and voters. The veteran Zimbabwean leader blames the MDC for the
bloodshed.

Tsvangirai told reporters the national council, the organ that
makes the MDC's decisions, had backed his boycott stance and pledged action
to demand that Zanu-PF puts an immediate end to hostilities.

Informed
sources said although some officials opposing Tsvangirai's stance had
staunchly opposed the boycott decision, the meeting had a full quorum and
that the decision was backed by the majority.

Gugulethu Moyo: Yes, Tsvangirai was right to pull
out

Independent, UK

Too many lives have been lost in run-up to election

Monday, 23
June 2008

Morgan Tsvangirai's decision to pull out of the
presidential run-off comes as no surprise.

At least 86 of his
supporters have been killed and thousands have been beaten, driven from
their homes or both. When more than a thousand of his polling agents were
detained days before the election and armed Zanu-PF gangsters occupied and
blocked access to the venue of his final rally yesterday, he decided to end
the charade.

Mr Tsvangirai's impulse, which is to prevent further
pointless bloodshed, especially of frontline electoral staff such as polling
agents is understandable. After all, President Robert Mugabe has said he
will not cede power to the MDC, even if by some miracle, the result shows
that he has lost.

There is little evidence that Mr Mugabe's campaign
to obliterate the MDC will end just because there is no election. Instead,
Mr Mugabe is likely to seize the opportunity handed to him to kick out
foreign election observers, who for the moment are the witnesses of the
world on Mr Mugabe's crimes. When they leave, Mr Tsvangirai and his
supporters will be in even greater danger.

Still, the problem of the
dangerous regime in Harare is now for world leaders to solve, not for Mr
Tsvangirai. For far too long, defenders of the ineffectual policies of Mr
Mugabe's neighbours have argued they have been walking a fine line, trying
to cajole the President, who only cares about staying in power, into
cooperating. That hasn't worked, and more lives are lost every day. They now
have an obligation to move swiftly and finally resolve the problem. To save
lives.

For starters, the African Union should immediately deploy credible
human rights monitors to Zimbabwe. These monitors should not be limited to
the cities - they should also venture into rural areas, where murders,
torture and rape are most prevalent.

In his cynical, bloody bid to
cling on to power, Mr Mugabe, has bet on the unwillingness of regional and
international institutions to take effective measures to stop his reign of
terror. It is now time for world leaders to prove him wrong.

The
author is a Zimbabwean lawyer and member of the International Bar
Association.

Basildon Peta: No, Tsvangirai was not right to pull
out

Independent, UK

Mugabe could not have won even a rigged election

Monday, 23 June
2008

Of all the victims of Robert Mugabe's reign of terror I had
spoken to recently, none told me that the vile dictator had brutalised them
into loving him or voting for him. Mr Mugabe had, in fact, done a lot to
campaign for Morgan Tsvangirai. An elderly woman whose nephew was murdered
by Mr Mugabe's thugs two weeks ago told me she was determined to support the
opposition in his honour.

It might sound a bit naive. But Mr Mugabe
could not have won even a rigged election. The economy has worsened since
the last election on 29 March which emboldened them. It proved Mr Mugabe
could be beaten.

Even when opposition officials began acknowledging the
growing sentiment in the party to pull out, I had never thought it would
happen. "We will contest even if we are killed in the polling booths," one
of the officials had told me. I thought that was right.

I am aware of
the thousands of rural displaced and disenfranchised people. But that figure
would have been swallowed into the MDC's strong urban support base. Polling
day was going to further amplify Mr Mugabe's chicanery. I am told that, in
some areas, polling booths were going to be located on properties handed to
the so-called war veterans. Images of opposition supporters and even
election observers being beaten at these places would have travelled the
globe.

If Mr Tsvangirai's certain victory was going to be blocked by the
crude tactics we have seen, Mr Mugabe would have emerged from the 27 June
run-off more illegitimate. And if he had made good his threat to declare war
after losing the vote, I believe that would have hastened his
demise.

Mr Tsvangirai's reasons are not necessarily invalid but whatever
the outcome of the run-off, I believe Mr Mugabe would have come off worse.
The question now is what next? I hope it won't be another long round of
Thabo Mbeki's timid mediation while Zimbabwe continues burning. The MDC must
now do what it should do to rid Zimbabwe of this shameless criminal. The
opposition party knows what that is, though I can't print it
here.

The author is a Zimbabwean living in exile and is The Independent's
southern Africa correspondent

MDC a truly people party

So many comments have been made about
the merits and demerits of the MDC pulling out of the presidential run-off.
Only a handful of these credit the MDC leadership witth acting responsibly
by putting people's lives first. Running a country is all about trying to
improve the welfare of all citizens, not killing them. It is a shame that
most commentators view the move by MDC as lack of steel and poor judgement.
Those who have lost their loved ones, their possessions and their homes will
think otherwise. I don't think that they would like one more Zimbabwean to
suffer the same fate.

It is inconceivable to participate in an election
where over 80 people have murdered by the state and no arrests made, where
people are murdered in the presence of election monitors, where opposition
monitors are not allowed anywhere near a polling station, where voting for
the opposition is tantamount to writing one's own orbituary and where the
sitting president will not leave office whatever the election
result.

For once, Zimbabwe has a president - in - waiting who values
lives of his citizens. Morgan Tsvangirai needs all the support he could get
from all right minded people. Now that MDC is not participating in the
run-off, it should work closely with the civil society iin helping those who
were displaced and dispossessed by forces of evil that have griped our
country. Let us all work collectively to help those who were punished for
exercising their constitutional right.

No efforts should be spared in
trying to get the release of Tendai Biti who is unjustifiably detained by
Mugabe's murderous regime. If you compare Mugabe's utterances about going to
war and not recognising an opposition victory with what Tendai Biti said,
then clearly it should be Mugabe behind bars for subversion of Zimbabwean
constitution. Clearly, in Zimbabwe, the law is being used as an instrument
of oppression and not for justice.

ZANU PF should not be allowed to hold
the country to ransom. MDC deserves the international support and should not
be pressured into some dangerous government of national unity. ZANU PF are
murderers who should be in prison and not contaminate the future Zimbabwean
government. There is no sense in rewarding tyrants by including them in a
government of national unity. Politicians should be in public office to
serve the public and to dehumanise them.

Incredible U-turn is typical of leader's weakness

By handing victory to
president Robert Mugabe, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has sealed his
reputation for vacillation, weakness and disastrous judgment.

Even by
his own standards this was an astounding u-turn. Only last week, Mr
Tsvangirai said boycotting the election would be a "betrayal of the
victims'' of political violence.

Now, after his followers have
endured eight years of torment at Mr Mugabe's hands, Mr Tsvangirai has
chosen to capitulate.

Mr Tsvangirai was once an inspirational leader who
carried the hopes of his country. A burly trade unionist, he had an immense
following among Zimbabwe's urban poor.

Like most Zimbabweans, he
cheered Mr Mugabe's accession to power and the arrival of independence in
1980.

Critic

But Mr Tsvangirai became disillusioned and, as head
of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, turned into an outspoken critic of
the regime.

In 1999, he founded the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
Mr Tsvangirai defied a murderous terror campaign to win 57 seats in the
parliamentary polls of 2000 and run Mr Mugabe close in the violent
presidential elections of 2002.

But his flaws soon came to the
surface. After the murderous parliamentary polls of 2000, his followers
wanted to hear that he would use "mass action'' to oust Mr Mugabe. Mr
Tsvangirai repeatedly promised to do that -- while lacking any intention of
keeping his pledge.

His MDC party formally split in 2005 over whether to
contest elections for a new Senate.

Leading article: An aborted election, but no triumph for
Mugabe

Independent, UK

Monday, 23 June 2008

No one can blame Morgan Tsvangirai for
withdrawing from Friday's run-off in Zimbabwe's presidential election. Least
of all can he be accused of lacking personal courage. He returned to
Zimbabwe to campaign, despite ample evidence that rigging had deprived him
of a clear victory in the first round and very real threats to his
life.

And yesterday's move has two clear benefits. It deprives Robert
Mugabe and his Zanu-PF of the legitimacy that would proceed from a victory
at the ballot-box, however compromised such a victory would be. There must
also be hope that it will halt the mounting violence. Without the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change formally contesting his power, Mr Mugabe can
afford to call off the militias. Many lives may thus have been
saved.

However understandable Mr Tsvangirai's decision, though, it still
leaves a bitter taste. In principle, a flawed election is generally
preferable to no election at all. Those who campaigned for the MDC, even
those who supported the party clandestinely, were immensely brave. In the
same spirit, many were expected to risk going to vote on Friday. There were
forecasts - born of wishful thinking, perhaps - that Mr Mugabe could be
defeated. Now, opposition supporters will have no one to vote for and there
will be no election. Mr Mugabe's catastrophic rule is automatically
extended.

An opportunity has been lost. It would be wrong, however, to
see the abandoned run-off as returning Zimbabwe to where it was before the
elections in March. More has changed than might meet the eye. Mr Mugabe
retains the presidency, but he no longer has a monopoly on power. The
parliamentary elections, also held in March, deprived Zanu-PF of its
majority. Despite challenges and accusations of rigging from both sides,
these results were allowed to stand. The MDC has a platform from which to
challenge the status quo.

Then there is the judiciary. Even as the
Mugabe regime's campaign of violence and intimidation reached its height in
the past week, Zimbabwe's high court struck down the ban on opposition
rallies. This did not immediately change the balance of forces on the
ground: when the MDC tried to hold a rally in Harare yesterday, its advance
guard found that Zanu-PF supporters, armed with sticks and whips, had
already occupied the arena. After the court ruling, however, there could be
no ifs or buts: this was indisputably an illegal act.

Thirdly, the
chequered course of the run-off campaign left few illusions about the nature
of the Mugabe government or the methods to which it would resort to stay in
power. As documented instances of beatings and killings spiralled, other
African governments started to break their silence. Inhibitions against
condemning a fellow freedom-fighter remain, but there are signs that the
consensus may be shifting. The Harare regime's tactics, along with the
deplorable state into which this once-prosperous country has descended, make
it harder than ever for neighbours to stand idly by.

If Zimbabwe is not
quite back where it was before the previous elections, there are still many
questions about what happens next. Among the more hopeful developments after
the disputed results in March were the mediation efforts launched by
Zimbabwe's neighbours. The now-aborted run-off was one result; talks
broaching a possible national unity government were another. With its
economy in free-fall, its population fleeing, and an enfeebled Robert Mugabe
still in power, Zimbabwe will need all the help it can get. This is the
worst time for anyone, least of all its neighbours, to disengage.

On Sunday, Mr Tsvangirai, who heads the Movement for
Democratic Change, said that there was no point running when elections would not
be free and fair and "the outcome is determined by.. Mugabe himself".

The opposition's decision came after its supporters,
heading to a rally in the capital Harare, came under attack.

The MDC says some 86 supporters have been killed and
200,000 forced from their homes by ruling Zanu-PF party militias.

President Mugabe and Zanu-PF blame the opposition for
political violence across the country, although the veteran leader said last
week that the MDC would "never, ever" be allowed to rule Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe's Information Minister Sikhanyio Ndlovu told
the BBC that Mr Tsvangirai's decision was "depriving the people of Zimbabwe of a
vote".

Government officials said the run-off vote would go
ahead, unless Mr Tsvangirai submitted a formal letter of withdrawal.

'Scandalous'

Reacting to the MDC's decision, Zambian President
Levy Mwanawasa said the poll must be postponed "to avert a catastrophe in the
region".

He called on the regional group, the South African
Development Community (Sadc), to take a similar stance, saying that Zimbabwe had
failed to meet minimum election campaign.

"It's scandalous for SADC to remain silent on
Zimbabwe. What is happening in Zimbabwe is embarrassing to all of us," President
Mwanawasa said.

In New York, UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon's office issued
a statement saying the UN chief "deeply regrets that, despite the repeated
appeals of the international community, the government of Zimbabwe has failed to
put in place the conditions necessary for free and fair run-off elections".

The statement described the situation in Zimbabwe as
"deeply distressing".

'Senseless'

In Washington, White House spokesman Carlton Carroll
said in a statement that "the Mugabe regime reinforces its illegitimacy
everyday".

"The senseless acts of violence against the
opposition as well as election monitors must stop," the statement said.

Mugabe will remain unopposed to seek revenge and retribution on all
who stood for democracy and change

Bid to stop Mugabe after Tsvangirai quits

The US says it will go to the UN to see what
"additional steps" can be taken to stop President Robert Mugabe from
suppressing the Zimbabwean people.

The statement came after opposition
leader Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the race, virtually handing victory
to Mugabe.

"The Mugabe regime reinforces its illegitimacy every day. The
senseless acts of violence against the opposition as well as election
monitors must stop," White House spokesman Carlton Carroll said in a
statement.

"The United States is prepared to go to the United Nations
Security Council early this week to look at additional steps that can be
taken. Mugabe cannot be allowed to repress the Zimbabwean people
forever."

The UN Security Council is due to meet tomorrow to discuss the
Zimbabwe crisis.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon today called Mr Tsvangirai's
decision to quit the run-off election a "deeply distressing development" and
a bad omen for the country's future, his spokesman said.

"The
circumstances that led to the withdrawal of opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai today from the presidential elections represents a deeply
distressing development that does not bode well for the future of democracy
in Zimbabwe," the spokesman said in a statement.

"The campaign of
violence and intimidation that has marred this election has done a great
disservice to the people of the country and must end immediately," he
added.

The UN Secretary-General "deeply regrets" the international
community's failed attempts to bring about a fair run-off election, and
"strongly supports" a statement of the Southern African Development
Community chairman that the vote should be postponed, his office
said.

The statement said the United Nations was prepared to "work
urgently with SADC and the African Union to help resolve this political
impasse," adding that the UN leader's envoy, Assistant Secretary-General
Haile Menkerios, "remains in the region to assist".

Mr Tsvangirai
quit Zimbabwe's run-off election, saying violence had made a fair vote
impossible, in a move that virtually hands victory to Mugabe.

"What it does do now is that it places maximum pressure on the
South African Development Community states and the African Union to now put
considerable pressure on Mr Mugabe to try and get an outcome where the will
of the Zimbabwean people is respected," Mr Smith told ABC Radio.

"I don't think on any analysis here can
we conclude anything other than a brutal regime seeking to, in the first
round, steal an election by rorting the count, and in the second round
stealing it by violence and Mr Tsvangirai's come to the conclusion he can't
overcome the violence.

"The violence now needs to be overcome by the
African and international community."

Mr Smith said "one possibility"
was negotiations between Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change and
the Mugabe regime to create a coalition
government.

Zimbabwe ZANU-PF Urges Supporters Continue Campaign -
Report

nasdaq

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AFP)--Zimbabwe's ruling party has
told its supporters to continue to campaign for Friday's presidential
run-off poll, and ignore the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's
withdrawal from the race, state media reported Monday.

"This is the
11th time that Tsvangirai has threatened to withdraw from the presidential
run-off and on each occasion I have challenged him to put it in writing as
required by law," Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, who is spokesman of
the ZANU-PF party, told journalists late Sunday, The Herald
reported.

Fear as Zanu thugs rampage in Harare

Harare - It was
like a war zone. Men armed with AK-47 rifles rampaged around the open piece
of ground where the MDC had its last rally before the March 29
elections.

Roadblocks were set up in the main approach streets, and
branches were torn from trees to attack cars. Stones were thrown at them.
Trucks filled with Zanu-PF supporters circled the grounds, their lights
flashing.

Earlier on Sunday, men dressed in Zanu-PF T-shirts, some
armed with weapons including guns, harassed and beat people near the site of
the rally, which was due to take place inside the Harare
Showgrounds.

†Observers from the Southern African Development
Community did not dare go there, and remained in their five-star
hotel.

Journalists who tried to go there were shot at, and people
gathering to try to make their way to the rally had to dive to the ground to
avoid the shots, while others were beaten.

Zanu-PF denied it
had disrupted the meeting and its preparations, reports
Reuters.

"We do not accept that those people were Zanu-PF. We know
the MDC has been giving its thugs Zanu-PF regalia to create the impression
that we are behind the violence," Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa
said.

This article was originally published on page 1 of The Star
on June 23, 2008

Mwanawasa Explains SADC Support for Halt in Zimbabwe
Vote

VOA

By Howard LesserWashington, DC23 June
2008

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has
followed the lead of Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) in calling for a postponement of this Friday's presidential election
run-off. In Lusaka over the weekend, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, the
SADC chairperson, called a press conference to explain the reasons for
SADC's new position. He said he hoped the delay would allow for conditions
to become more suitable for a free and fair vote in accordance with
Zimbabwean law, SADC principles, and the charter and conventions of the
African Union. The Zambian President also noted that he would have failed in
his role as SADC chairman not to have urged authorities in Harare that
conditions were not yet ripe for a follow-up to Zimbabwe's disputed March 29
presidential vote. Journalist Sanday Chongo Kabange of Lusaka's Radio
Phoenix attended President Mwanawasa's press briefing. He tells VOA English
to Africa reporter Howard Lesser SADC's decision was not disclosed until
after opposition MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai announced that the MDC was
pulling out of the race.

"Mr. Mwanawasa spoke about three or four hours
after Mr. Tsvangirai had decided to pull out of the election. He also tried
to act immediately after what had transpired in Zimbabwe," said
Kabange.

Last week, SADC's designated mediator for Zimbabwe, President
Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, achieved an apparent breakthrough in the crisis
by arranging for one-thousand SADC observers to travel to Zimbabwe from
outside the country to serve as election monitors and discourage further
outbreaks of partisan violence and ensure a fair vote. The MDC opted out of
the race after a ruling party militia blocked the site of a large campaign
rally the opposition had planned to hold on Sunday. SADC observers already
in the country stayed away from the rally venue, while journalists
attempting to cover the gathering were reportedly shot at. As mediators
awaited official word on whether or not Harare would unilaterally proceed
with the run-off, President Mwanawasa announced SADC's about-face. Radio
Phoenix reporter Kabange says MDC consultations, as well as the continuing
violence, played a part in SADC's decision.

"The MDC, about three or
four days ago, they sent a six-man team to the Zambian chancery in Pretoria
to petition Mr. Mwanawasa, the SADC chairperson, to assist and end to the
violence in Zimbabwe. And the other thing that we are told is on Sunday, the
MDC was supposed to hold a rally at the stadium in Zimbabwe. But before the
MDC would hold the rally, the venue that was supposed to hold the rally was
actually filled with armed war veterans. And I also think they would not
have been allowed free access to state media. So this is probably why the
SADC had to make an immediate response to what the MDC had said," he
noted.

Although President Mbeki spent a good part of last week in talks
with Mr. Mugabe and Mr. Tsvangirai in Harare, reporter Kabange says there is
little evidence that he consulted with President Mwanawasa before the SADC
support for a pull-out was announced.

"Mr. Mwanawasa tried to contact
Mr. Mbeki, I think, on Friday, on two occasions. I was told he called Mr.
Mbeki twice. He was told he was in a meeting and that he would get back to
him, but he never did. Then, he said that he has not been getting briefs
from Mr. Mbeki on Zimbabwe and all he is doing is relying on intelligence
reports on Zimbabwe that he is getting from the Zambian chancery and other
intelligence reports. He has actually not been getting feeds from Mr. Mbeki
as mediator on SADC. One thing he said was, 'I'm disappointed as chairperson
of SADC because I'm being denied information'," he said.

The Radio
Phoenix reporter said that given the escalating incidents of violence, and
the seemingly premeditated arrests of leading MDC officials (including
Morgan Tsvangirai, who Kabange says has been jailed five times in the past
10 days), SADC's call for a postponement was understandable. He said the
southern regional bloc is hoping to avoid further embarrassment by getting
government authorities in Zimbabwe to permit open campaigning and free media
access to election coverage in order to create suitable conditions for a
run-off eventually to take place. Zimbabwe government officials are quoted
as saying there is nothing in the constitution to prevent a run-off from
continuing if one of the parties opts to drop out of the race.

Statement attributable to the
Spokesperson for the Secretary-General on Zimbabwe

United Nations Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General
(OSSG)

Date: 22 Jun 2008

New York, 22 June
2008

The Secretary-General deeply regrets that, despite the repeated
appeals of the international community, the government of Zimbabwe has
failed to put in place the conditions necessary for free and fair run-off
elections. The circumstances that led to the withdrawal of Opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai today from the Presidential elections represents a deeply
distressing development that does not bode well for the future of democracy
in Zimbabwe. The campaign of violence and intimidation that has marred this
election has done a great disservice to the people of the country and must
end immediately.

The Secretary-General has discussed the situation
with various leaders, including those of the African Union and the Southern
African Development Community (SADC). He strongly supports the statement of
the Chairman of SADC that conditions do not exist for a run-off election to
be held at this time and that they should be postponed. The United Nations
is prepared to work urgently with SADC and the African Union to help resolve
this political impasse. His envoy, Assistant Secretary-General Menkerios,
remains in the region to assist.

Grim outlook for Zimbabwe's democratic future

ABC Australia

Posted 41
minutes agoUpdated 23 minutes ago

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith
says the Federal Government is considering bringing more sanctions against
Zimbabwe, since Opposition Leader Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of a run-off
election against President Robert Mugabe.

But should the international
community now be doing more?

Macquarie University's Dr Geoffrey Hawker,
who is also the president of the African Studies Association of Australasia
and the Pacific, says the international community needs to step
in.

"It is a very serious situation. It is the violence and the
intimidation that has brought this withdrawal," he said.

"Of course
it is not the first time the MDC has been divided on its tactics. Three
years ago it actually split on this issue of contesting or not contesting
elections against Mugabe, so it is a faction, if you like, that has come
back in against the recent violence.

"It does heighten the pressure on
the rest of the world - particularly SADC - to intervene."

It does
appear that there is some momentum from African countries; Zambia, the
current head of the SADC, has called for the run-off to be postponed.

But
Dr Hawker says brokering a deal between the two parties still seems to be
the most likely option.

"They are still going to try to act principally
through Thabo Mbeki, the South African President who is leading the SADC
group, trying to broker a deal," he said.

"I think Mbeki has made it
pretty clear that he is going to have another go at putting together some
sort of government of national unity in Zimbabwe.

"Now that is not an
easy thing to do. MDC has said really, it doesn't want to do a deal with
Mugabe, which is very understandable, but I think that is the route that
they will be trying over the next couple of days in fact."

But he
concedes there is a high chance Mr Mugabe would prevent that from happening
because he wants to remain in power.

Dr Hawker says it is possible one of
Mr Mugabe's deputies and perhaps Simba Makoni, a man who left Mr Mugabe's
party and ran in the elections, could form a government of national unity
together with some elements of the MDC.

"But I am not saying that is
wonderful prospect. I am just saying that is the least unlikely prospect,"
he said.

Moving Mugabe would be a difficult task - one that Dr Hawker
says would not be beyond the power of Mr Mbeki.

"[He could do] some
sort of broker deal for immunity with Mugabe and put the pressure onto the
rest of the regime," Dr Hawker said.

"It would be within Mbeki's power to
bring that about, but of course, he has conspicuously failed to do so, so
far. None of us will be holding our breath on that one, but it is
possible."

The MDC Treasurer has said that pulling out of the election
was the most difficult decision his party has ever faced, but he expects
that new elections will happen with the help of the African Union and
Zimbabwe's neighbours.

But Dr Hawker believes that is very wishful
thinking on behalf of the MDC.

"Once the campaign is called off,
Tsvangirai steps back, Mugabe is able to say, 'Oh well, I didn't have an
opponent. I am now perfectly legitimately in the position', and he will hold
off any redoing of elections, one would think, for some years. Perhaps
Zanu-PF's successor will then come forward," he said.

The French
Foreign Minister has responded to Mr Tsvangirai's announcement by calling Mr
Mugabe a "crook and a murderer" and saying that France would not accept the
result of a vote in which Mr Mugabe would be the only contestant.

Still,
Dr Hawker says even if there is more international backlash, he doubts it
will bring about much change.

"I don't want to be gloomy about it, but it
is only a qualitative shift from what we have got at the moment," he
said.

"After all, the EU has sanctions on the regime. They have had for
some time. It really isn't going to change anything fundamentally inside the
country to say those sorts of things. It is just a little bit more than what
has been said before.

"Effectively, what can they do? Can they
increase the sanctions? Well, yes to some extent. Can they restrict the
movement of Mugabe's officials externally? Well, yes to some extent. But
those things have been done already."

The United States says it will
raise the issue at the UN Security Council meeting later today.

"I am
afraid it is impossible to really say much positive about that. China is
very quiet on this one. China is on the Security Council," Dr Hawker
said.

"If one was actually to talk about intervention, that is a long
way down the track. It would have to go through the Security Council. There
are absolutely no signs that is achievable.

"We are still talking
about diplomatic moves, trade sanctions, restricting movement of officials.
All of those things, yes, to go further than that we are seeing the signs
with the SADC leaders, it is true," he added.

"Mugabe has embarrassed the
whole continent and what he has done recently with the deaths, more than 70
now, it makes people ashamed and worried and that is why you are seeing
African leaders, not all of them but significant numbers of them,
criticising him."

Dr Hawker says at the end of the day, any hope of real
change comes down to Mr Mbeki.

"I still say that it is from the
region and from South Africa that the action has got to come," he
said.

"[I am] cautious and guarded. It is a dark moment in many ways but
I do feel Mbeki, who is nearing the end of his own term early next year, has
got his last chance now to broker some sort of deal," he said.

"That
is less good than a free and fair election, but it is possible for him to do
that and it is probably the best outcome that we are looking for at the
moment."

Democracy under threat in Zimbabwe, says
Jamaica

Jamaica Observer

Monday, June 23, 2008

Declaring that
democracy is being threatened in Zimbabwe, the Jamaican Government yesterday
expressed disappointment at Morgan Tsvangirai's decision to pull out of this
week's presidential run-off election and called on African leaders to help
resolve the crisis in that country.

"We are concerned at the reports of
violence which have claimed the lives of scores of people in the run-up to
the election," deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs Dr Ken
Baugh said in a statement. "We are concerned that democracy is under
threat."

"We renew our call on African leaders, particularly leaders of
the Southern African Development Community, to take a firm stand, and use
their influence to resolve as a matter of urgency, the crisis in Zimbabwe,"
added Baugh.

Tsvangirai, the leader of the Opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC), yesterday announced that he was pulling out of the
election, arguing that violence and intimidation against Opposition
supporters by supporters of President Robert Mugabe had cost too many lives
and as such the election would not be credible.

"We can't ask the
people to cast their vote ... when that vote will cost their lives. We will
no longer participate in this violent sham of an election," Tsvangirai
said.

Baugh, in his statement, said that Jamaica has been paying close
attention to the situation in Zimbabwe, particularly since the March 29
presidential and parliamentary elections which Mugabe lost.

"We have
been extremely disappointed at reported developments in the country,
following the elections, which have given rise to the decision of the
Opposition not to contest," said Baugh.

"We again urge all parties to
engage in a process of national reconciliation aimed at achieving lasting
peace and harmony, fostering democracy, economic growth and development in
Zimbabwe," he added.

Time for revolution in Zimbabwe's streets

straight.com, Vancouver

By
Gwynne DyerMorgan Tsvangirai was right to withdraw from the run-off
presidential "election" in Zimbabwe on Sunday. Thousands of his supporters
have been kidnapped and tortured by President Robert Mugabe's thugs since
the campaign started, and 86 have been murdered already. Thousands more
would probably have suffered the same fate if the election had gone ahead,
and it would all have been for nothing. Mugabe was determined not to let the
opposition win, regardless of what the voters did. He even said
so.

"Only God can remove me," Mugabe has been saying in recent speeches,
vowing that he would refuse to give up the gains of the liberation war
because of an 'x' on a ballot paper. He claims that the major opposition
party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), is part of a plot by the
British government, Zimbabwe's former colonial ruler, to re-impose white
rule on the country.

Whether this is genuine paranoia or merely low
cunning, it lets the 84-year-old president justify the reign of terror he
has unleashed against opposition supporters since he lost the first round of
the election to Tsvangirai as "a second liberation war." In wars, you can
kill people who oppose you, and you are not obliged to count the enemy's
votes.

So a lot of opposition party organisers have been killed, and in
rural areas thousands of them have been driven from their homes in order to
give Mugabe a clear run in the second round of voting. And Mugabe's strategy
was clearly going to succeed: either he would win a majority of the votes
because enough MDC supporters had been terrorised into staying home, or else
he would win the count later on.

He didn't win the count the first
time, in late March, because he was over-confident. He let too many foreign
observers in, and he allowed local vote tallies to be posted up at polling
stations and didn't realise that opposition activists would photograph them.
Whatever the real vote count was, Mugabe's tame Zimbabwe Election Commission
was unable to massage the outcome enough to give him a first-round victory:
most of the local voting totals were too well documented.

After a
month's delay, the ZEC released results showing Tsvangirai with about 48
percent of the vote to Mugabe's 43 percent. That was enough to force a
second round of voting, since a candidate had to get more than fifty percent
of the vote in the first round to avoid a run-off.

It was the best that
the ZEC could do for Mugabe, but it was a huge humiliation for the
liberation war hero who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980. His
advisers should have seen it coming, however: Mugabe has misgoverned
Zimbabwe so badly that this once-prosperous country now has two million
percent inflation.

One-quarter of the population have fled to South
Africa to find work and support their families. Many more at home would be
starving without the remittances from South Africa, because foreign food aid
only gets through to supporters of Mugabe's Zanu-PF party. And public health
has been neglected so badly that Zimbabweans now die, on average, at a
younger age than any other nationality in the world.

Mugabe may not
even know these statistics, but armed forces chief General Constantine
Chiwenga, now the real power behind the throne, certainly knows them, and so
do other regime members. They just don't care. If they lose power, they lose
everything, for almost all their wealth was acquired illegally, and they
have killed too many people.

In the past week, there have been reports of
senior military and political figures showing up at torture sessions of MDC
militants who were subsequently released. The message was clear: we do not
fear prosecution for this, because we will never relinquish power.

So
Morgan Tsvangirai had to decide how many more lives he wanted tosacrifice in
order to force Mugabe to steal the election openly. But how would that
discredit Mugabe any more than the crimes he is committing right now? And
what good does it do to "discredit" him?

Mugabe is a scoundrel and a
tyrant, and the people who run his government and his army are brazen
thieves, but there will be no effective intervention in Zimbabwe from
outside. The only African leader who has enough clout to do that is South
Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, but he will never act against his old friend
Robert Mugabe.

Other African leaders will cluck ineffectually, but
nothing will be done. Zimbabweans are on their own, as they always really
were. Tsvangirai and a majority of the MDC have belatedly realised that
there is no point in waiting for justice to prevail -- but they have
probably not yet thought beyond that. Basildon Peta, the head of the
Zimbabwean Union of Journalists, certainly has. This is what he wrote after
Tsvangirai announced his decision.

"I hope it won't be another long
round of Thabo Mbeki's timid mediation while Zimbabwe continues burning. The
MDC must now do what it should do to rid Zimbabwe of this shameless
criminal. The opposition party knows what that is, though I can't print it
here."

Mugabe's deeds aren't going unnoticed

Australia's Stephen Smith was
referring to Zimbabwean dictator Robert Mugabe's appearance at a U.N. food
conference earlier this month.

Yes, a dictator who uses starvation to
scatter and kill his own people making an appearance at an international
conference devoted to raising food and feeding the hungry is an obscenity -
though I add, without cynicism, that the situation isn't all that unusual.
Petty tyrants, terrorist enablers and tribal killers cluster about the wine
and cheese smorgasbords of international community fetes and
summits.

At these forums, they blame the United States for, well,
virtually anything and everything. Anti-Americanism - or in Mugabe's case, a
worn-out '60s-style "anti-imperialist" pitch aimed at Great Britain -
provide media camouflage for their hideous genocides and cruel
depredations.

Mugabe, a classic Marxist rebel leader, plays this game
quite well. Toppling Southern Rhodesia's white dictatorship made him a cult
hero. The left-leaning internationalists gave Mugabe's mass murder in
Zimbabwe's Matebele land a pass. That brutal campaign of the early 1980s,
conducted against his former anti-colonial allies, included imported North
Korean mercenary-advisers.

But his obscenities are catching up with
him.

His greatest obscenity is his war on his own impoverished nation.
Mugabe's tyranny has savaged Zimbabwe, making the country yet another tragic
example of a nation brutalized by its own government. Zimbabwe is blessed
with rich farmland and ought to be an agricultural breadbasket. It was,
until Mugabe's "land redistribution" and "farm policies" turned it into a
starving basket case.

Once a major regional food producer, today a
substantial number of Zimbabweans go hungry or flee. Since 2000, an
estimated 3 million Zimbabweans have escaped to neighboring nations, with
South Africa a preferred destination.

Zimbabwe's economy is a string
of obscene numbers. In late 2007, the Zimbabwean government said the annual
inflation rate was 7,600 percent. The IMF forecast predicted 100,000
percent. A 2008 estimate said 200,000 percent. These statistical differences
are meaningless - the currency is a fraud, another form of governmental
theft.

In early 2008, Zimbabwe's estimated unemployment rate ran from 50
percent to 80 percent. Whatever the number, Zimbabwe's once flourishing
tourist industry has all but disappeared. In 1999, 1.4 million tourists
visited Zimbabwe. In 2007, only a handful came. Commercial agriculture jobs
once boosted Zimbabwe's economy. Since 2000, Zimbabwe has lost between
250,000 and 400,000 agricultural jobs.

Mugabe's latest trail of
obscenities involves election theft, violent intimidation and more murder.
Under Mugabe, elections have been little more than window dressing for his
cult control of the nation. His use of the police, military and loyal
militias like the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association has
kept opponents intimidated and citizens terrorized.

However, his
obscene economy and brutal arrogance has led to a loss of grassroots support
in his own once-plaint political organization, the
ZANU-PF.

Zimbabwe's March 29 presidential election confirmed this.
Election observers believe that if the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, did not win the March vote
outright, he came close. The MDC claimed victory. Under any circumstances,
Mugabe's electoral window dressing fell, and with it fell the last media
facade masking his tyranny.

Mugabe has manufactured a run-off
election, scheduled for June 27, pitting him against Tsvangirai. The "war
veterans" are out with their clubs and knives. The MDC claims at least 40 of
its supporters have been killed since March 29. Moreover, they allege that
Mugabe is plotting to assassinate Tsvangirai. Mugabe's police have
repeatedly detained and harassed Tsvangirai.

Nobel Prize winner
former Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa has called for international
peacekeepers to ensure the elections are fair and safe. It may not matter.
This week, Mugabe said he will ignore the election results. Yet the
political heat on Mugabe is inc"Frankly obscene," Australia's foreign
minister said.

Australia's Stephen Smith was referring to Zimbabwean
dictator Robert Mugabe's appearance at a U.N. food conference earlier this
month.

Yes, a dictator who uses starvation to scatter and kill his own
people making an appearance at an international conference devoted to
raising food and feeding the hungry is an obscenity - though I add, without
cynicism, that the situation isn't all that unusual. Petty tyrants,
terrorist enablers and tribal killers cluster about the wine and cheese
smorgasbords of international community fetes and summits.

At these
forums, they blame the United States for, well, virtually anything and
everything. Anti-Americanism - or in Mugabe's case, a worn-out '60s-style
"anti-imperialist" pitch aimed at Great Britain - provide media camouflage
for their hideous genocides and cruel depredations.

Mugabe, a classic
Marxist rebel leader, plays this game quite well. Toppling Southern
Rhodesia's white dictatorship made him a cult hero. The left-leaning
internationalists gave Mugabe's mass murder in Zimbabwe's Matebele land a
pass. That brutal campaign of the early 1980s, conducted against his former
anti-colonial allies, included imported North Korean
mercenary-advisers.

But his obscenities are catching up with
him.

His greatest obscenity is his war on his own impoverished nation.
Mugabe's tyranny has savaged Zimbabwe, making the country yet another tragic
example of a nation brutalized by its own government. Zimbabwe is blessed
with rich farmland and ought to be an agricultural breadbasket. It was,
until Mugabe's "land redistribution" and "farm policies" turned it into a
starving basket case.

Once a major regional food producer, today a
substantial number of Zimbabweans go hungry or flee. Since 2000, an
estimated 3 million Zimbabweans have escaped to neighboring nations, with
South Africa a preferred destination.

Zimbabwe's economy is a string
of obscene numbers. In late 2007, the Zimbabwean government said the annual
inflation rate was 7,600 percent. The IMF forecast predicted 100,000
percent. A 2008 estimate said 200,000 percent. These statistical differences
are meaningless - the currency is a fraud, another form of governmental
theft.

In early 2008, Zimbabwe's estimated unemployment rate ran from 50
percent to 80 percent. Whatever the number, Zimbabwe's once flourishing
tourist industry has all but disappeared. In 1999, 1.4 million tourists
visited Zimbabwe. In 2007, only a handful came. Commercial agriculture jobs
once boosted Zimbabwe's economy. Since 2000, Zimbabwe has lost between
250,000 and 400,000 agricultural jobs.

Mugabe's latest trail of
obscenities involves election theft, violent intimidation and more murder.
Under Mugabe, elections have been little more than window dressing for his
cult control of the nation. His use of the police, military and loyal
militias like the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association has
kept opponents intimidated and citizens terrorized.

However, his
obscene economy and brutal arrogance has led to a loss of grassroots support
in his own once-plaint political organization, the
ZANU-PF.

Zimbabwe's March 29 presidential election confirmed this.
Election observers believe that if the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, did not win the March vote
outright, he came close. The MDC claimed victory. Under any circumstances,
Mugabe's electoral window dressing fell, and with it fell the last media
facade masking his tyranny.

Mugabe has manufactured a run-off
election, scheduled for June 27, pitting him against Tsvangirai. The "war
veterans" are out with their clubs and knives. The MDC claims at least 40 of
its supporters have been killed since March 29. Moreover, they allege that
Mugabe is plotting to assassinate Tsvangirai. Mugabe's police have
repeatedly detained and harassed Tsvangirai.

Nobel Prize winner
former Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa has called for international
peacekeepers to ensure the elections are fair and safe. It may not matter.
This week, Mugabe said he will ignore the election results. Yet the
political heat on Mugabe is increasing - primarily from Europe and the
United States. The real disappointment is South Africa President Thabo
Mbeki. Mbeki was supposed to help "mediate" Zimbabwe's political crisis, but
his mediation has been a biased farce in favor of Mugabe.

Why? "Old
radical solidarity" is one possible reason. Mbeki's memories of
anti-colonial struggle produce a soft spot for Mugabe. Pray that it's
blarney, but this kind of embedded, selfish bitterness from the political
past does scar the present and damage the future. True or not, Mugabe
continues to kill and steal, with obscene impunity.

To find out more
about Austin Bay, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and
cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

reasing - primarily
from Europe and the United States. The real disappointment is South Africa
President Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki was supposed to help "mediate" Zimbabwe's
political crisis, but his mediation has been a biased farce in favor of
Mugabe.

Why? "Old radical solidarity" is one possible reason. Mbeki's
memories of anti-colonial struggle produce a soft spot for Mugabe. Pray that
it's blarney, but this kind of embedded, selfish bitterness from the
political past does scar the present and damage the future. True or not,
Mugabe continues to kill and steal, with obscene impunity.

Tsvangirai's risky gamble needs regional backing

Reuters

Sun Jun 22,
2008 9:43pm BST

By Cris Chinaka- Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) -
Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai has gambled his political career by pulling out
of an election run-off and he must now count on regional action as well as
sympathy to have a hope of unseating President Robert Mugabe.

In a
free election, the opposition leader would have been well placed to win next
Friday's vote after beating Mugabe in the first round, but he announced on
Sunday that political violence made a fair ballot impossible.

The
announcement was hedged though -- with a plea to Africa and the world to
intervene in the crisis. He also spoke of the need to work on a transition
of power away from Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980, suggesting a readiness
for negotiations.

"It is a bold statement, but he does appear to be
leaving his options open. This sounds like a provisional pull-out," said
Brian Raftopolous, a political analyst with the Zimbabwe
Institute.

Tsvangirai, a fiery 56-year-old former trade unionist, always
knew the run-off would be difficult and only reluctantly agreed to take
part.

His Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said he won the outright
majority needed on March 29 to avoid a second round of voting, but agreed to
go along to avoid granting automatic victory to Mugabe, 84.

At first
sight, giving up now would have the same result.

But the picture has
changed.

African countries have joined Mugabe's Western critics in
voicing anger at poll violence -- the opposition says 86 supporters have
been killed. Not long ago, regional states sat silent and gave tacit backing
to Mugabe, seen by many as a hero of the struggle for
independence.

The government blames Tsvangirai's followers for the
violence but the region has certainly not taken up that
line.

IMPATIENCE

In fact, southern African states show growing
impatience with Mugabe and fear total meltdown in Zimbabwe.

The
crisis has driven millions of Zimbabweans into their countries, straining
economies and creating tensions even in powerhouse South Africa --† where
xenophobic violence exploded last month.

Zambian President Levy
Mwanawasa, also chairman of the Southern African Development Community
(SADC), showed understanding for Tsvangirai after the
withdrawal.

"Elections held in such an environment will not only be
undemocratic but will also bring embarrassment to the SADC region and the
entire continent of Africa," he said.

But Tsvangirai will need action
as well as words from regional leaders if his gamble is not to backfire. The
United States and former colonial power Britain have little
leverage.

"There is not a huge amount (regional leaders) can do. What
Mugabe has stressed since the year dot is sovereignty. Part of that is
directed against Western colonial interests, but it can be as effectively
directed against regional leaders," said Tom Cargill of Britain's Chatham
House thinktank.

SOUTH AFRICA KEY

Most important of will be the
role of South Africa.

President Thabo Mbeki has never shown much fondness
for Tsvangirai, while the Zimbabwean opposition leader has openly criticized
Mbeki's role as mediator in the crisis.

But the MDC leader has a
better relationship with the increasingly influential Jacob Zuma, head of
South Africa's ruling African National Congress, who shares his humble
roots. Tsvangirai is the self-taught son of a bricklayer who worked his way
up through the union movement.

By withdrawing, Tsvangirai could also be
moving towards a plan Mbeki has been said to favour by South Africa's press
-- calling off the election to allow a national unity
government.

Mbeki was quick to say that South Africa would try to
persuade Mugabe and Tsvangirai to meet to discuss the
crisis.

"...that most certainly is what we would try to encourage," Mbeki
said after Tsvangirai's announcement.

Until now, prospects for such
talks appeared limited. Neither side trusted the other to head an interim
administration. Both believed they could win the vote -- by whatever
means.

Now regional pressure could make a difference in getting Mugabe to
the table. He is undoubtedly in a weaker position than before the March 29
elections, when his party also lost its parliamentary majority. Without a
contested run-off, even a flawed one, his legitimacy could be more
uncertain.

"With the MDC withdrawing, I think it is back to
negotiations," said Susan Booysen, a political analyst at the University of
the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

Such negotiations could test
Tsvangirai to the full. His party has suffered deep internal divisions in
the past -- some over questions of his judgment and style -- although
differences have been patched up for now.

Tsvangirai has made his name as
the only person who has come close to ending Mugabe's rule.

But the
ruling ZANU-PF party and the generals fighting behind Mugabe are known for
their political nous as well as a readiness to use whatever means necessary
to avoid losing their 28-year grip on power.

"For Tsvangirai himself,
time is running out," Knox Chitiyo of London's Royal United Services
Institute said earlier this month. "Everyone talks about this being
ZANU-PF's end game but I think it's also the MDC's end
game."

The Spiral of Zimbabwe

New York Sun

By MARIAN TUPYJune 23,
2008

The political and economic situation in Zimbabwe is spiraling out of
control, but the government of the Zimbabwe African National Union -
Patriotic Front seems determined to hold onto power no matter what the cost.
The time is ripe to impose an arms embargo on President Mugabe's murderous
regime. In order for the embargo to work, however, more pressure will need
to be applied on Southern African states in general and South Africa in
particular.

The bleak news out of Zimbabwe is getting worse every
day. The government has unleashed the army and police against the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change. Scores of MDC activists have been killed,
tortured, or assaulted. The government's control of the press and ban on
public gatherings made it impossible for the MDC's candidate, Morgan
Tsvangirai, to win the second round of the presidential election. As a
consequence, he withdrew from the contest yesterday.

On the economic
front, the situation is dire. The economic crisis that was precipitated by
Mr. Mugabe's seizure of commercial farms in 2000 has put four out of five
Zimbabweans out of work. The government's tax revenue collapsed as did most
of the public services. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe was ordered to print
money to make up for the budget shortfall, leading to the first
hyperinflation of the 21st century.

By the end of June, the annualized
inflation rate will reach 3,140,335%. That will bring the overall inflation
for the entire duration of the Zimbabwean hyperinflation to a staggering
366,386,083,683%. That is roughly 36 times the overall inflation experienced
by the Weimar Republic in the early 1920s. One American dollar, which bought
50 Zimbabwean cents when Mr. Mugabe assumed power in 1980, sold for 25
billion Zimbabwean dollars on June 9.

Most Zimbabweans, especially
those living in rural areas, survive on remittances from their relatives
abroad and food aid distributed by NGOs and Western government agencies. But
aid agencies worry that with the coming of winter hunger will spread. The
ruling regime, however, uses food shortages as a political weapon against
the supporters of the opposition - it hands out food to people with the
ZANU-PF membership card only.

In the early 2000s, Western nations imposed
targeted sanctions against Zimbabwe's top government officials. The time is
ripe to ban the army and police from acquiring the weapons they need to put
down internal dissent. An arms embargo has not been contemplated seriously
before, because of doubts over its successful implementation.

A
successful arms embargo must have the support of Southern African states in
general and South Africa in particular. The cooperation of Southern African
states now looks more likely. Regional leaders, like those of Angola and
Zambia, who have been largely silent about the crisis in Zimbabwe
previously, have been increasingly vocal in their criticism of Mr.
Mugabe.

They and other African leaders may be open to arms embargo -
especially if South Africa changes its policy of supporting Mr. Mugabe. As
was the case in the 1970s, South Africa holds the key to the resolution of
the Zimbabwean crisis. Back then, the apartheid government judged that the
costs of helping the white government in Rhodesia were too great. When
Pretoria discontinued its active support of the regime in Salisbury, Ian
Smith's government collapsed and was replaced by Bishop
Muzorewa.

Similarly, the goal today should be to make Mr. Pretoria's
support for Mr. Mugabe too costly for South Africa. Thabo Mbeki's
government, currently on the U.N. Security Council, should be backed into a
corner and forced to vote on the issue of an arms embargo
forthwith.

Moreover, South Africans should be informed that their
country's ambition of becoming a member of the U.N. Security Council will
remain a pipe dream so long as they go on backing dictators from Burma,
Cuba, and Zimbabwe. Lastly, South Africans should be told that a continued
controversy over Zimbabwe threatens the success of the FIFA World Cup that
South Africa is to host in 2010.

The presidential election was never
likely to produce a resolution to the crisis in Zimbabwe. Mr. Mugabe, after
all, made it clear that he will not leave power so long as he lives. As
such, an increased international pressure on the Zimbabwean government has
never been as needed or as likely to succeed as it is today.

Mr. Tupy
is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and
Prosperity.

Why the military keep this ageing dictator in power

President Mugabe has not acted alone in bringing Zimbabwe to its knees.

He has a band of willing accomplices, many of whom fought alongside him in
the guerrilla war against white rule and have benefited enormously from his time
in power.

They rule through the secretive Joint Operational Command (JOC), which in
effect took over after the first round of voting on March 29. Mr Mugabe was
officially defeated in the vote for the first time since he took power in 1980,
though the opposition narrowly failed to gain an outright victory.

The decision by the Movement for Democratic Change to pull out of the run-off
poll on Friday leaves this junta stronger than ever. “Part one of the strategy -
intimidate the opposition - has been achieved. Part two - keeping Mugabe in
government at all costs - comes next,” said a senior African analyst.

JOC members, who dread the prospect of Mr Mugabe losing power, stiffened the
veteran leader's resolve to resist the challenge of Morgan Tsvangirai, just as
some of his top non-military advisers thought that the game was up and urged a
negotiated settlement.

Human rights groups and diplomats say that the JOC has carefully orchestrated
the violence, which has led to the deaths of an estimated 85 people, the torture
of a further 1,300 and driven more than 35,000 opposition supporters from
torched homes.

However, its inner workings are shrouded in mystery. Its most dominant figure
is the immensely powerful Emmerson Mnangagwa, currently the Minister of Housing
- he was responsible for razing opposition shanty towns two years ago - and a
long-time member of the ruling Zanu (PF) politburo.

A lawyer by training, Mr Mnangagwa has been touted as a successor to Mr
Mugabe for a long time. He built up the dreaded Central Intelligence
Organisation, which he led during the Matabeleland massacres in the 1980s when
the support base for Joshua Nkomo, Mr Mugabe's former rival, was destroyed.

He also co-ordinated Zimbabwe's involvement in the war in neighbouring
Democratic Republic of the Congo in the mid-1990s, during which he became
immensely wealthy from illegal mineral exports and arms dealing. He is named in
several UN reports and could face charges before international tribunals on
several counts.

Mr Mnangagwa has nothing to gain and everything to lose from a Mugabe exit.

He shares that qualification with other leading members of the JOC: General
Constantine Chiwenga, the Army Commander; Augustine Chihuri, the police chief
who commands the Green Bombers paramilitary militia; and retired Major-General
Paradzayi Zimondi, head of the Prisons Service.

Before the first round of voting all three said in a joint statement that
they would only serve Mr Mugabe, not any “puppet” - their leader's favourite
term for the opposition. They ordered the men and women under their command to
vote for the 84-year-old incumbent.

Another key JOC figure is Air Marshal Perence Shiri, chief of the Air Force.
He used to control the notorious North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade, which
carried out the Matebeleland massacres when the bellies of pregnant women were
slit open to dispose of the “unborn traitor”, and villagers believed to support
Nkomo were thrown alive down wells.

These men have worked closely with Brighton Bonyongwe, the intelligence chief
who is feared for his ruthlessness, and Joseph Chinotimba, the leader of the War
Veterans Association, to co-ordinate the crackdown on MDC supporters.

All are unfazed by suggestions that they could end up before the
International Criminal Court.

Most have such shady pasts that they already fear there are sealed envelopes
in The Hague awaiting delivery. For them, the only safe way out is to ensure
that Mr Mugabe keeps power. They know that, unlike the man they serve, there is
little chance of them being offered immunity or other “safe passage”.

President’s henchmen

Emmerson Mnangagwa, 62. Minister of Rural Housing. It has been an open
secret for years that this ruthless former head of the intelligence service
wants to succeed Mr Mugabe. Is noted for his brutality towards opponents

Constantine Chiwenga, 50s. Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Force. He
joined Mr Mugabe in Mozambique for the independence struggle. He is noted for
his ruthlessness and loyalty to the President

Augustine Chihuri, 50s. Commissioner General of Zimbabwe Republic
Police. Although he denies political links, Mr Chihuri was one of the first to
say that he would never swear allegiance to the opposition if it took power. His
son, Sylvester, was recently deported from Australia

Retired Major-General Paradzayi Zimondi, 60s. Head of the Prison
Service. Issued orders to his officers to vote for President Mugabe in the
elections. He was part of a group of military chiefs who said on the eve of the
2002 elections that they would not recognise the presidency of anyone who did
not participate in the 1970s war of independence

Air Marshal Perence Shiri, 53. Chief of the Air Force since 1992. A
cousin of the President, he once called himself a “Black Jesus”. From 1983 to
1984, the Zimbabwean Fifth Brigade under Shiri’s command was responsible for a
reign of terror in Matabeland

Brighton Bonyongwe, 47. Formerly a brigadier general in the Defence
Force before retiring to take on the role of head of the Central Intelligence
Organisation. Enjoys life on his two previously white-owned farms

SADC observers to stay in Zimbabwe for now

SABC

June 23, 2008,
08:15

Southern African Development Community's (SADC) election observer
mission will stay in Zimbabwe until the run-off election has officially been
cancelled.

The decision follows the withdrawal by opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai from the presidential run-off vote. About 400 SADC
observers from around the Southern African subcontinent streamed into Harare
in the past weeks to monitor the political climate ahead of the election and
to help ensure a free and fair election.

Meanwhile, Political
Analyst, Katlego Phuthiyagae says the withdrawal of the main opposition
party in Zimbabwe's run-off election has disappointed many supporters and
members of the MDC.

Phuthiyagae says Zimbabweans who are anxious for
change, are very disappointed by the withdrawal of the MDC from the run-off
election.

Prices will be slashed by as much as 90 percent in
some instances to ensure affordability by those in the low-income
bracket.

For instance, a 750ml bottle of cooking oil, whose price
currently ranges between $9 billion and $15 billion, will be sold at less
than $1 billion.

This intervention comes at a time when prices of goods
and services have continued to rise to unprecedented levels, with some
manufacturers "unjustifiably" attributing this to rising input
costs.

However, under the programme, Government is supporting producers
of basic commodities under strict covenants that such products will be
supplied into the restocking programme at prices that reflect true
production costs.

The initiative is part of the Basic Commodities Supply
Side Intervention facility launched by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in
October last year, running until the end of this year.

RBZ Governor
Dr Gideon Gono yesterday commended Government for launching the programme,
which could effectively subdue some of the inflationary pressures in the
economy.

"We hail this innovative intervention by Government as it brings
tangible supply to the doorsteps of the majority of the people. As Governor,
I want to once again reiterate that the Bacossi support we are extending to
our strategic productive sectors is essentially meant to fight off inflation
from two angles.

"Firstly, the direct impact on supply, as can be
seen from this Government programme, is unambiguously leading to massive
price reductions.

"Secondly, when we extend Bacossi support per unit
production cost in the economy, decreases on overheads are distributed on
more output arising from higher capacity utilisation levels.

"As a
central bank, we fully support this intervention by Government," said Dr
Gono.

For most low-income earners, basic products were now priced beyond
their reach, a situation that was exacerbated by massive price jumps in
recent weeks.

The emergence of the black market for goods had seen
most shops being wiped clean as products were diverted to the more
"lucrative" parallel market.

The release by Government of $150 trillion
last month for the setting up of People's Shops through the Small
Enterprises Development Corpo-ration, is also expected to go a long way in
ensuring greater access to products at affordable prices by vulnerable
groups.

----------Comment

Author: katzSimple economics -
the Government hands out subsidised goods to try and shore up its
popularity. To pay for the subsidies it has to crank up the printing presses
ever more so. The extra money supply is not matched by increased production
and the Z$ plummets faster and faster as inflation goes through the roof.
The cost of this is borne by the people; however, the clever boys in the
Government blame the West,MDC,weather,businessmen, whoever or whatever for
the misery inflicted on the people whilst claiming the credit for helping
the poor through the subsidies. Blind Freddy could see that one. The problem
is that the day of reckoning is only going to be worse.

NZ Zimbabweans fearful after election row

New Zealand's Zimbabwean
community is devastated opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has pulled out
of the run-off election against President Robert Mugabe.

Movement
for Deomocratic Change representative Ben Magaiza says the news is
"unbearable", but says the "war isn't over yet".

He said his life has
been filled with dreams since moving to New Zealand seven years ago, but any
dreams his family in Zimbabwe may have had have just been shattered, and so
have his.

"But then one looks at it and asks 'what choice did Tsvangirai
have'," Magaiza said.

"Yes, he could have gone in and won the
election, but I doubt that Mugabe would have handed over power on a
platter."

Magaiza believes withdrawing from the run-off election could
possibly have been a strategic move by the opposition.

"This way we
still have the war to fight.

"If we'd gone on and lost the run-off
through election rigging or by the mere fact Mugabe refused to hand over
power, that would have legitimised Mugabe through.

"But now we are
still in there, and it's time for the United Nations and African Union to
intervene," he said.

He recalls hearing Tanzania's Bernard Membe recently
saying the situation in Zimbabwe was unbearable and options would be looked
at to start controlling it.

"One hopes what ever the response is
going to be to this, it's emphatic so no room is given to Mugabe to continue
what he's been doing."

Magaiza fears the situation may get even worse for
the "ordinary Zimbabwean" should Mugabe be isolated.

"My mother,
nieces and nephews live in Zimbabwe and I've been thinking about how can I
relocate them to perhaps another country within the region as bringing them
out here is just too expensive," he said.

Magaiza said it's not possible
to rely on landlines to keep in contact with his family, as the lines are
often down, so he's made sure they have mobile phones to contact him
urgently should they need to.

He is appalled Mugabe has stated he could
only be defeated by God.

"It's quite unbelievable that someone could go
to that extent - with his hands all bloodied, and he has the guts to talk
about God, it's just unbelievable."

Zimbabwean Association of New
Zealand president Titus Katiyo is also devastated that the Tsvangirai has
pulled out of Friday's run-off election.

He said it shouldn't have
happened; as the election was only four days away.

"If they step down it
literally means they are no longer there and what is happening will
continue," he said.

"The people who are defenceless need to have the
opposition around."

He said every family network in Zimbabwe knows of
someone who is affected physically by Mugabe's ruling.

Katiyo likens
his home country to a casino.

"You wake up in the morning unsure about
everything and survive by gambling

"You go out hoping that today will be
the day you will land a job, you work in the hope that you will get a wage,
you go to the shop hoping you will find food to buy and the list goes
on.

"Granted every life is a gamble but the degree of uncertainty in
Zimbabwe is close to that in a casino," he said.

Australia to impose stronger sanctions against
Zimbabwe

Sydney - Australia Monday will
consider imposing stronger financial and travel sanctions against Zimbabwe
as violence escalates in the lead up to the June 27 presidential run-off
election.

'I've made it clear that we are open to consider more
sanctions. We are currently giving active consideration to the issue,'
Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation
(ABC) Radio.

Australia has already imposed financial sanctions and
suspending non-humanitarian aid, and defence and ministerial links, besides
travel bans on members of the Zimbabwe regime.

Zimbabwe's opposition
leader Morgan Tsvangirai has pulled out of the run-off election against
President Robert Mugabe, saying growing violence has made a free and fair
poll impossible.

'I think what it does do now is that it places maximum
pressure on the South African development states and the African Union to
now put considerable pressure on Mr Mugabe to try and get an outcome where
the will of the Zimbabwe people is respected,' Smith told ABC
Radio.

South African President Thabo Mbeki is the appointed mediator for
Zimbabwe.

As for Tsvangirai's withdrawal from the run-off poll virtually
providing Mugabe with a legitimate election win, Smith said, 'I don't think
on any analysis here can we conclude anything other than a brutal regime
seeking to, in the first round, steal an election by rorting (cheating) the
count, and in the second round stealing it by violence. The violence now
needs to be overcome by the African and international
community.'

Calling the situation in Zimbabwe 'horrendous,' Australian
Greens party leader Bob Brown told reporters, 'This calls for much greater
world action than we've seen. There needs to be urgent action in the United
Nations to bring Mugabe to book.'

Brown also called for banning
Mugabe from attending international conferences and be treated in the same
manner as the military junta in Myanmar.

'Quite frankly, the thuggery
of Mugabe and his cronies is leading to the deaths of a lot of people. We
need to put very heavy pressure on South Africa and other southern African
nations to get Mugabe to go. We also need to use the Commonwealth processes
that we do have to get rid of Mugabe,' a South Africa-born, Liberal Party
backbencher Dennis Jensen, told reporters.

Battered Zimbabweans can't pin hopes on
Africa

A
HEADLINE in one of our local papers caught my eye last week among the many
stories focusing on the situation in Zimbabwe. It read: "Some African
leaders now acknowledge crisis in Zim."

What leaders? Levy
Mwanawasa of Zambia tried to point out the seriousness of the problem last
year and was slapped on the wrist by his peers. Botswana's Ian Khama has put
his head above the parapet a few times, berating the Zimbabwe government for
its errant behaviour that has left him with a growing refugee problem within
his borders.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has proved
schizophrenic on the issue. Although he is now urging President Robert
Mugabe to go quietly if he loses this week's presidential runoff, he is
usually fulsome in his praise of the man. Benjamin Mkapa, former president
of Tanzania, has defended his close friend Mugabe over the years. In 2005,
he spoke out in support of Operation Murambatsvina (clean up the trash), in
which hundreds of thousands lost their homes and livelihoods in an urban
crackdown.

SA's stance hardly bears mentioning. The president is one
thing. But over the years, ministers have gone to Zimbabwe on "fact-finding"
visits, which were little more than Zanu (PF) propaganda
briefings.

The African Union (AU) has done everything in its power to
keep the Zimbabwe issue off the main agenda of the organisation's
discussions on the basis that it was "divisive". The AU managed to send a
mere 18 observers to the March 29 poll. Looking to the AU for the
much-proposed African solution to an African problem hardly seems worth the
effort.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) handling of
the issue has been shameful, particularly the endorsement of blatantly
rigged election after blatantly rigged election in Zimbabwe, giving the Zanu
(PF) government a veneer of acceptability.

Much has been made of
a recent letter signed by 40 African leaders, (including Mkapa), who
expressed concern about the violence in Zimbabwe and called for conditions
to be created for a free and fair poll.

Raila Odinga, Kenya's new
prime minister, stuck his neck out, pointing out what most people have known
for years; Rwanda's Paul Kagame also expressed concern and said Africa had
failed Zimbabwe.

However, events of the past few weeks are not new in
Zimbabwe even if they are much worse than before. Is it the degree of
violence that is breaking the African silence on the issue? Is there a point
up to which it is acceptable?

Despite the worthy letters and
statements, is the Zimbabwe government likely to give a
hoot?

This is a government that is not only sanctioning, but driving,
the horrific violence carried out mostly by Zanu (PF) thugs. And the victims
have no one to turn to as their tormentors are often the very security
forces meant to protect them.

The Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) cannot campaign - it is blocked at every turn by the government's
security forces and by bans on the media.

In the midst of all this,
people are still calling for the (illegal?) government to allow Friday's
runoff to be free and fair. The environment is obviously not conductive to
holding an election and a cessation of Zanu (PF) brutality in the days
before the poll will not be the magic bullet to make it free and
fair.

Election observers have arrived late in the day - due to
convenient government delays in issuing invitations - and in any case are
unlikely to witness events in the ruling party's real hunting grounds, deep
in the rural areas.

Assuming Friday's election takes place - even
though MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has said he will pull out - the result
is unlikely to take Zimbabwe to a better place. Not for a while
anyway.

Of course it is up to Zimbabweans to sort out the mess
themselves, despite the challenges the government has placed in their
way.

And that is just as well, as the rest of Africa has already
proved it is not up to the task.