The Foodist's 2011 James Beard Award Predictions

What recognition matters most to American chefs? Is it a four-star review from a local newspaper or city magazine? Michelin stars? Praise from the national press? All are important but none has quite the pomp, pageantry, and Academy Awards-like speeches that come with winning a James Beard Foundation Award. This Monday, chefs from around the country will descend upon Avery Fisher Hall at Lincoln Center in New York City to find out who will take home medals in categories like Outstanding Chef, Rising Star Chef of the Year, Best New Restaurant, as well as the regional Best Chef categories.

In the past, we've run a BA office pool to see who could pick the most winners. Top finisher bought a round of drinks for the staff. Sitting through the 3-hour plus award ceremony is a little bit more enjoyable when booze is on the line.

This year, I'm doing something different. I'm channeling my inner sports analyst and predicting which chef or restaurant I think will win each category in this year's James Beard Awards.

Disclaimer: I'm a NYC Regional Panelist for the James Beard Foundation Awards, which means I actually voted for these categories. My predictions below DO NOT necessarily reflect whom I voted for. On the official ballot I always vote for who I think is most deserving. But like the Oscars, sometimes your favorite movie doesn't always come away with a statue. Okay, enough of that, here are my predictions:

OUTSTANDING CHEF: Jose Andres, minibar by Jose Andres, Washington, D.C.He's on twitter, he's on TV, he's in Vegas, he's in Spain, he's everywhere. All that and his larger-than-life personality equal a win.

RISING STAR CHEF OF THE YEAR: Gabriel Rucker, Le Pigeon, Portland, ORThe food world has a huge crush on Portland. Some of it's hype, some of it is merited. I think that buzz (as well as Rucker's new restaurant, Little Bird) is enough to land him the win over California and New York contenders.

BEST CHEF, GREAT LAKES: Alex Young, Zingerman's Roadhouse, Ann Arbor, MIAlex Young and Bruce Sherman from North Pond in Chicago are veterans in this category. Zingerman's national reputation will be the difference.

BEST CHEF, MID-ATLANTIC: Cathal Armstrong, Restaurant Eve, Alexandria, VAHe's the guy who put Old Town Alexandria on the culinary map. And he's opening yet another spot, Virtue Feed and Grain, very soon.

BEST CHEF, MIDWEST: Lenny Russo, Heartland, St. Paul, MNThe pork and charcuterie king of the Twin Cities finally takes it home.

BEST CHEF, PACIFIC: Daniel Patterson, COI, San FranciscoYet another category where all of the nominees could win but this is the multi-talented Patterson's year.

BEST CHEF, SOUTH: Tory McPhail, Commander's Palace, New OrleansEveryone loves New Orleans (except Alan Richman), and this NOLA classic is a crowd-pleaser.

BEST CHEF, SOUTHEAST: Linton Hopkins, Restaurant Eugene, AtlantaHe's become the new face of Southern cooking and his restaurants are a must for well-traveled food lovers. Again, any of the nominees could take the award home but Linton has to be the favorite.

BEST CHEF, SOUTHWEST: Tyson Cole, Uchi, Austin, TXYep, the white guy who does sushi in the middle of Texas is going to catch the big one.

OUTSTANDING RESTAURANT AWARD: Highlands Bar & Grill, Birmingham, ALThis has been the year for Southern cooking, and nobody's done more to make that happen--in fact, he's been working on it for decades--than Frank Stitt.

BEST NEW RESTAURANT: ABC Kitchen, New York CityIt's a neck-and-neck race between this place and Chicago's Girl & the Goat, but an NYC location and an owner by the name of Jean Georges Vongerichten gives ABC that extra push.

OUTSTANDING RESTAURANTEUR AWARD: Tom DouglasThe mayor of Seattle's food scene--and the guy who has opened something like three restaurants in as many months--wins big.

OUTSTANDING SERVICE AWARD: Canlis, SeattleWith a new chef and new energy, this classic family-owned restaurant takes it home by turning on the charm.

OUTSTANDING WINE & SPIRITS PROFESSIONAL AWARD: Julian P. Van Winkle, IIIHis name is awesome and so is his bourbon. And in this Southern food blitz, bourbon's definitely having a moment.

OUTSTANDING WINE SERVICE AWARD: Frasca Food and Wine, Boulder, COI can only imagine what bottle Stuckey and his formidable staff will pop open after their win.