Here's The Weird Thing About The Tumbling Stock Markethttp://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-weird-thing-about-the-tumbling-stock-market-2014-4/comments
en-usWed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500Fri, 09 Dec 2016 11:05:15 -0500Joe Weisenthalhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/53483959eab8eae10d28067fSweetDougFri, 11 Apr 2014 14:50:01 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53483959eab8eae10d28067f
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Momentum from the algos/HFT's?
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V-Vhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/534805f3ecad04e409f05248Dan Ethan MartineauFri, 11 Apr 2014 11:10:43 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534805f3ecad04e409f05248
Time to dust off the "Arabs" story from 'Liar's Poker' yet?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534800936da811dd39d65674fredlledFri, 11 Apr 2014 10:47:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534800936da811dd39d65674
But, but, but, there's been hyperinflation since Q3 2008 and the bond vigilantes have been punishing President O's socialist government. I heard it on teh wireless so you know its truth.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347ff5aecad047702f05244fredlledFri, 11 Apr 2014 10:42:34 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347ff5aecad047702f05244
Dudele, another triple espresso 4% milk latte this morning?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347fe45ecad04c57cf05245EvolvingFri, 11 Apr 2014 10:37:57 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347fe45ecad04c57cf05245
I agree overpriced stocks and way over-leveraged funds. This selloff will end when a few of the naked swimmers puke on margin calls and go belly up. Then the big boyz will show up with a bid and buy the bargains. Sharks know when there's blood in the water.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f6efeab8eaa22d280682SlowingFri, 11 Apr 2014 10:06:39 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f6efeab8eaa22d280682
The global economy is slowing down and it was predictable in spite of all the blah, blah, blah you hear. QE was a failure because the money never made it into the economy via workers and consumers. All that money is sitting off shore or was used by corporations to purchase stock buy backs.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f5fbecad04fc59f05247AnonymousFri, 11 Apr 2014 10:02:35 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f5fbecad04fc59f05247
The best explanation is: Everyone is now so aware of past market crashes that everyone is anxious to not be left without a chair when the music stops. As a result, people are rushing to sit in a chair thinking the music has stopped or is about to any second. My thinking is that if people keep doing that - the music will actually have to continue longer!
Weird but think the market has to go higher since many pros have cash or are pre-emptively shorting.
There is an alternate conspiracy theory that since Soros & others came into 2014 with Billions of dollars of SPX PUTS, they need the market to fall in order to profit from those massive positions.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f31769beddf14c45420dMr ThriftyFri, 11 Apr 2014 09:50:15 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f31769beddf14c45420d
>"buy the dip" no longer works.
Really? When has the overall market NEVER recovered from a dip, a correction, or even a crash?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f02b6da8119f6fd65674Meatbone9Fri, 11 Apr 2014 09:37:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f02b6da8119f6fd65674
Yeah because K-1s are all set in January and everyone loves holding cash for four months....http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f0016bb3f7a81f2bc28fUmbraFri, 11 Apr 2014 09:37:05 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347f0016bb3f7a81f2bc28f
I still think that the recent stock market (unlike its earlier, less tech enthralled version) is rigged. It has too many chances for manipulation by groups or individuals.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347ee17ecad04153ff0524ebadbobFri, 11 Apr 2014 09:28:55 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347ee17ecad04153ff0524e
It's a ridiculous idea that some external event is what makes a market crash. With rare exception, it ha NEVER been an external event. The market is nothing more than millions of combined hopes and fears of all who are "in" the market. Everyone knows that the market is up a bunch and no one wants to be the last out the exit when the music stops. It's really that simple. Everyone, especially the financial media need an external event as the cause. People need a reason other than themselves freaking out.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347ec1c6bb3f7211d2bc28bdwightgoodensboytoyFri, 11 Apr 2014 09:20:28 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347ec1c6bb3f7211d2bc28b
Big boys don't wait until a week before tax day to sell. They sell at the beginning of the year, so they can re-allocate funds. Don't listen to the media morons pitching the tax selling bs. They're just looking for a reason to make sense of it all.
The market doesn't need a reason to sell off. When a market decides to re-price assets, the market re-prices them. The reasons will be known in the coming months. But April 15th is not the end. The move has just begun.
1576 is coming soon to a market near you.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347eba2eab8ea8911280682grenadetradeFri, 11 Apr 2014 09:18:26 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347eba2eab8ea8911280682
At this point, it's all a guess, right? People will claim to know the cause and take a side (it sells books, gets ratings, get more follows on Twitter, etc), and some parts of it makes sense here and there, but no one really knows the TRUE cause and reason, until MUCH later after it's happened. It's been the case with all the big downturns in recent history - and it's getting more complicated by the day to be explained and understood.
It's like asking "What's the Great Unknown that's gonna crash the market?" - Well, the answer is, if it was known (or claimed to be known), it wouldn't be the 'Great Unknown'.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347e86f6da8113c49d65674DarkMathFri, 11 Apr 2014 09:04:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347e86f6da8113c49d65674
"The 10 year yield is 20 bps lower than before the taper while the two year yield is roughly unchanged. "
The market isn't a function of just variable. It's a complex system. If the stock market tanks people will move their money into cash which will drive rates up. It's counter intuitive. It's like a head fake.
But don't worry. Janet Yellen will start another round of QE very soon if the market falls too much farther. Rates will be low until the Dollar is dropped as the reserve currency. Maybe that's the explanation you're looking for Joe. Don't think of stock or bonds. Think of the Dollar. Everything makes sense that way. Modelling the Dollar mathematically is far simpler because it's a function of just ONE variable: Confidence.
$ = f(C) where C = Confidence. As long as the rest of the World is worse than we are we'll be fine. As long as the Fed keeps up QE then confidence will be maintained.
That is all.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347e709eab8ea307e280685mike77Fri, 11 Apr 2014 08:58:49 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347e709eab8ea307e280685
All the big hedge etc own the same stocks. It's like musical chairs...looks like a bunch of guys couldn't find a place to sit.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347de586da8110228d65676Working122Fri, 11 Apr 2014 08:21:44 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347de586da8110228d65676
Russia and China trading oil in euro's not dollars! Fool!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347dddbeab8eacb5628067edoodle dudeFri, 11 Apr 2014 08:19:39 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347dddbeab8eacb5628067e
Stick to your medication schedule more strictly, dude. If nothing else, it might help you to find the caps lock key. That would be a great start.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347dc6fecad048d06f05245AgMgrFri, 11 Apr 2014 08:13:35 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347dc6fecad048d06f05245
If you want to make a living on technicals...go ahead.
Joe, why didn't you say much when the market was weirdly going up?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347dc3e6da811bd16d6567dtrystFri, 11 Apr 2014 08:12:46 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347dc3e6da811bd16d6567d
silence is better than bullsh!thttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347d7b86bb3f7bc482bc28dKCVXXFri, 11 Apr 2014 07:53:28 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347d7b86bb3f7bc482bc28d
If you consider that the prices have only been going up in anticipation of soon to be realized inflation, then any anti inflationary message will cause stocks to go down.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347d7966bb3f72a4c2bc28bit is the RUSSIANS!!!Fri, 11 Apr 2014 07:52:54 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347d7966bb3f72a4c2bc28b
russians!!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347d45eeab8ea923c28067foicFri, 11 Apr 2014 07:39:10 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347d45eeab8ea923c28067f
What story triggered the crash in 1929? Outlandish PEs and ultra high margin?
Maybe the Chinese and Russians signing a massive energy contract that will exclude trade in petrodollars? Massive drought and real inflation potential? The mask being pulled off the various manipulators of markets?
The macro story is bleak, I believe a lot of people heard the music stop and are getting out of equities and into cash or commodities. Hell, any of them - foodstuffs, base or precious metals - are more promising than unproductive entities with 500:1 PEs.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c5d7eab8ea5405280685Fernando DamianFri, 11 Apr 2014 06:37:11 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c5d7eab8ea5405280685
Hi Joe, there is nothing wrong or weird. It´ the opposite, is completly normal.
"Never" was a catalyst in early bear markets or a crash, not until all are crushed. The catalysts appear in advanced falls flat maturation or even at the end, not at historic highs.
Congratulations for your posts from multicurrencyadvice.com
FDhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c278eab8ea300428067eNick1Fri, 11 Apr 2014 06:22:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c278eab8ea300428067e
Stories reported in the media are often wrong, because people who move the markets usually keep their reasons to themselves. Those stories come out from people who are guessing and don't really know the true reasons.
My guess is that the earning season for Q1 is coming up, and people who move the markets probably expect poor earnings and negative guidance into the future for many companies.
Earnings matter so much, because some of the biggest buyers of stocks are companies buying back their own stocks. Which means that when they don't earn much money, then they don't have much money to buy back stocks with. They can still borrow money and keep buying stocks anyway. But it makes sense for them to stand back, let the market drop a lot, and then buy back their stocks at cheaper prices.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c1876da8112722d65675testmachineFri, 11 Apr 2014 06:18:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c1876da8112722d65675
No i think there is something much more serious here - I think people are afraid about the effect of Russia and China and Gazprom, etc using a currency besides the dollar to buy oil. Even if just these two countries started to, and Iran it would be enough to put the petrodollar in serious question and that would have profound economic impact.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c023ecad044e18f0524eKristen MossFri, 11 Apr 2014 06:12:51 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347c023ecad044e18f0524e
I'll bet warren buffet doesn't get too analytical about 2% down days. They happen all the time. Now here come the theories from people who make a career in sensationalizing any movements past - 5%. SO take some random guesses about what's going on based on current events and blog about it. It's not useful and no one benefits. STOP! GET A LIFE, JOEhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347b42f6bb3f7174d2bc290JayJKFri, 11 Apr 2014 05:21:51 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347b42f6bb3f7174d2bc290
Articles like this is yet another sign that the bull run from 2009 may be over. The idea that the stocks can only rise has been so ingrained in folk's psyche that when they merely stop rising (I mean we ain't that far from all-time highs made very recently), people have to search for reasons and when they can't, they are confused.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347a6a5ecad04b04af0524ejerimy123Fri, 11 Apr 2014 04:24:05 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347a6a5ecad04b04af0524e
"So here's the weird thing. There's really no "story" associated with this selloff"
You got it completely backward. There was no growth to justify the buying in the first place.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347a44e69beddf11d454211awakeinwaFri, 11 Apr 2014 04:14:06 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347a44e69beddf11d454211
it's apparent to me China's weak trade numbers ended up spooking folks - does it belie a broader slowdown there and here.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534779e2eab8eab70f8b45684whatitsworthFri, 11 Apr 2014 01:13:06 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534779e2eab8eab70f8b4568
I suspect that the inside story is profit warnings based on Q1 performance. Question of the moment is was it the weather..?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347717a6bb3f72d7b8b456b....Fri, 11 Apr 2014 00:37:14 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347717a6bb3f72d7b8b456b
LOL Joe Weisenthal actually tweeted jesse livermore check it out.........
"Joseph Weisenthal ‏@Jesse_Livermore Yeah, there's no story is there?"http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534767b3eab8ead04c8b456ascratcherThu, 10 Apr 2014 23:55:31 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534767b3eab8ead04c8b456a
joe,
you do a lot of head scratching don't you? Ask Henry to run a few more climate change articles so you can quit eating ramen noodles for lunch!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347619269bedd401e8b456bshort and stockeyThu, 10 Apr 2014 23:29:22 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347619269bedd401e8b456b
Seven out line away!
Yes. TJ was exactly right. The 'tell was the gap up yesterday on low volume.
Watch the media try to calm the markets, but will just end up hurting the small investors.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347571d6da811c7568b4568mvigodThu, 10 Apr 2014 22:44:45 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347571d6da811c7568b4568
My take is this. April 15th is approaching. 2013 was a huge up year. Many locked in gains. Now they have to pay the taxman which looms larger this year. 20% for high earners on cap gains PLUS another 3.8% obamacare tax. Sell stocks to raise money which triggers the initial fall. Then margin debt at all time high triggers margin calls as highly levered stocks fall. Clerks and traders selling whatever they can across the board to raise cash for all this and redemptions.
It will all end before April 15th. Trades have to settle out around then for payments to the taxman.
Or maybe it just sold off because it sold off. Sometimes nothing more than fear, greed and randomness! Pick your poisonhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347550d6da811e9558b456aQE6Thu, 10 Apr 2014 22:35:57 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347550d6da811e9558b456a
LOL Joe Weisenthal was just telling us only 4 days ago how the market had a completely different look to it when viewed a different way, just look at his chart of the beginning of a monster breakout! Now he's talking to Jesse Livermore on Twitter whose been dead since 1940. LOL
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/two-stock-market-charts-2014-4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/two-stock-market-charts-2014-4</a>http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347504eecad045a298b4569BenskyThu, 10 Apr 2014 22:15:42 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347504eecad045a298b4569
After giving up looking for a thread in the market this morning, I had come to the same conclusion, and gave the same "short squeeze/long plays" explanation earlier this evening at supper.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53474b6f6bb3f71f708b456amelancholyThu, 10 Apr 2014 21:54:55 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53474b6f6bb3f71f708b456a
Melancholy is the story.
The slow but certain erosion of social belief and positive energy.
People "feel" that what has been going on can't go on forever.
And when they think of the coming change, they can't imagine a good change, they can only imagine that the change is going to be bad.
Melancholy is the story you are missing.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347498869bedd11398b456eTJ ParkerThu, 10 Apr 2014 21:46:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347498869bedd11398b456e
Gee, what's the story. I wonder. Hmm. Well the Fed is tightening (even if they don't want to call it tightening). And its happening a little at a time. And out in the market you have lots of overly leveraged agents with portfolios full of crap. So they have been selling it, but "hiding" what they're doing -- selling high-fliers like Google and Facebook while supporting the indices. But that can only go on for so long. And when it stops, you get last Friday. Then yesterday, we had a bull trap: shorts were squeezed out of positions and dumb bulls drawn into new longs. But volume was horrendous. And today we see why: the sellers are still out there. But now, all the shorts have been pushed out. And these new longs are only starting to learn that "buy the dip" no longer works.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347496cecad0495108b4575Logan MohtashamiThu, 10 Apr 2014 21:46:20 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5347496cecad0495108b4575
QE 1 ended yields fell market fell
QE 2 ended yields fell market fell
QE3 still in play and actual taper happen then the 10 year broke its uptrend when it closed below 2.91%
Tight wedge, but 3.04%-2.47% channel. Bond market doesn't believe your claims theory that much as today was the best claims since May of 2007 and market fell and yields fell.
2.65% ... Hmmmmm.....http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534748ca69bedd94418b4568That 1 weird trickThu, 10 Apr 2014 21:43:38 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/534748ca69bedd94418b4568
Stock brokers all know this one weird trick to the market...