Sunday, November 26, 2017

Why Moore Will Win, Be Seated in the Senate, and Not Expelled

We're just under three weeks away from Alabama's special election, and Roy Moore, against most predictions (including my own) is still leading the polls. The polls with the largest likely-voter samples have consistently showed Moore leading and beating or matching the margin of error.

Moore will win

Despite his thumbless defense against very credible charges of sexual misbehavior against teen girls less than half his age, Moore continues to completely deny the accusations. The steadfast denials have blunted the effects of the accusations, it appears, but that's probably not the biggest reason Moore will win.

He's running against a typical Democrat, Doug Jones. By "typical" I mean passing all the Democrat litmus tests: pro-choice, pro-big-government, pro-identity politics. And President Trump has finally, carefully, weighed in.

“He says it didn’t happen,” the president told reporters at the White House. “You have to listen to him, also.”

Trump's reminder that Moore has consistently denied the allegations is important. It may sway enough voters who are undecided whether to stay home or vote for Moore to give him a small benefit of the doubt.