Fledgling Saudi Arabia reforms don't fly / Royal family slowly closing the door on political dissent

Mohamad Bazzi, Newsday

Published 4:00 am, Sunday, October 31, 2004

2004-10-31 04:00:00 PDT Riyadh, Saudi Arabia -- The quiet revolt began with late-night meetings in living rooms and cafes. Academics, lawyers, businessmen and journalists drafted polite petitions and communiques demanding reform. They wanted an elected parliament, an independent court system and basic rights for women in a society where they can't even drive.

The clamor for change intensified after a series of bombings shook the Saudi capital in May 2003. But today, the reform movement in this absolute monarchy has lost steam. The ruling Saud family has been buoyed by recent victories against Islamic militants and an unexpected economic boom fueled by record oil prices. And with neighboring Iraq in shambles, the kingdom faces little pressure to reform from what the Bush administration once promised would be a burgeoning democracy in the heart of the Middle East.

The House of Saud is slowly closing the door on political dissent. A recent law prohibits government employees, including many academics and journalists, from signing petitions or publicly criticizing the regime. Those who violate the law could be fired or imprisoned. Three leading reformers have been arrested for challenging the ruling system. Initially, their trial was open -- the first public trial in the kingdom's history -- but it was closed last month without explanation.

"Reform has been intermittent and people are disappointed," said Abdulaziz al-Qasim, a former judge who is now one of the kingdom's leading moderate Islamic activists. "We need to find ways for people to participate in the society, to have a voice without resorting to extremism."

Tension between liberal reformers and religious conservatives is nothing new in the kingdom, where the austere brand of Wahhabi Islam has prevailed for centuries. Over the years, the Saudi royal family, with tacit support from successive American administrations, has sided with the clerics.

The old alliances began to shift after the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers as well as mastermind Osama bin Laden were Saudis. Espousing an extreme strain of Wahhabism, bin Laden has long called for the overthrow of moderate pro-American regimes in the Middle East, starting with the House of Saud. Bin Laden has found powerful allies in the Wahhabi establishment and support among disaffected Saudi youths. As Washington and liberal Saudis pressured the royal family to adopt political reforms and limit its alliance with the Wahhabi clerics, the Sauds seemed to move toward the reformers. But the monarchy has long rested its legitimacy on its religious credentials, and it is unclear how far the Sauds are willing to distance themselves from Wahhabi doctrine.

By early 2002, the budding reform effort stalled. But it assumed a new sense of urgency when Saudi militants hit home in May 2003 with suicide attacks against three housing compounds for foreigners in Riyadh, which killed 34 people. More bombings and assassinations of Westerners followed. The attacks unleashed a public debate about Wahhabism and whether it is a root cause of Islamic militancy around the world. By becoming intertwined with the debate over religious doctrine, the reform movement began to pose a new challenge for the royal family.

Faced with pressure from all sides, the Sauds agreed to hold elections next year for the first time in the kingdom's history. But it is unclear if the elections are going to be free and fair. Women will not be allowed to vote or run for the open seats. With women excluded, the elections are likely to draw international criticism.

Saudi reformers are already criticizing the elections, saying they will be a hollow exercise because the municipal councils have virtually no power.

"We are still looking for serious reforms, instead of these municipal councils," said Mohsen al-Awajy, a lawyer who spent four years in prison for his political activities. "We want a real, open judiciary, a transparent financial system and an elected national assembly."

Throughout this tug-of-war, the ruling family has moved first forward and then back. Crown Prince Abdullah -- the country's de facto ruler since King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke in 1996 -- pledged last year to push forward with economic reforms, political liberalization and plans to open up more areas of work to women. Since June 2003, Abdullah has held a series of "national dialogues" with leading Saudi liberals about political reforms, combatting terrorism and women's rights.

Saudi officials insist that the ruling family is committed to reform, but at a pace that suits the traditional and highly devout Saudi society.

"Reform is a reality. There's no way to retreat or to avoid it," said Mohammad al-Zulfa, a member of the Shura Council, an appointed consultative assembly with no lawmaking powers. "Some religious leaders are afraid that any change will affect the fundamental roots of Islam. But the people of Saudi Arabia are good Muslims who will not stray away from real Islam."

In March, the government struck a serious blow against the reformers by arresting a dozen activists. Most were quickly released, after they pledged not to publicly demand reform or speak to the media. But three leaders are being tried for holding a public gathering, pushing for a constitutional monarchy and accusing the judiciary of not being independent.

In June, the ruling family further tightened the muzzle on reformers by banning government employees from criticizing the regime. And unlike previous years, King Fahd did not once use the word "reform" in his annual speech to the Shura Council last month.

With an economic boom and success against militants, the Sauds have been able to shelve reform in recent months. Driven by high oil prices, the stock market has soared and the government expects a budget surplus this year of $3. 5 billion. More than half of the 26 most wanted al Qaeda members in the kingdom have been killed or arrested by security forces.

Reformers warn that the economy is still precarious, and some militants have gone deep underground. "The government has gained some breathing room because of the good economy and its latest successes against the militants," said al-Qasim. "But that's not going to last for long. In the end, there has to be real reform."

There are powerful barriers to change. The Wahhabi establishment has great authority in Saudi Arabia, and a religious police force -- the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice -- roams the country looking for moral infractions, such as women not wearing veils or stores staying open during the five daily prayers.

Wahhabism seeks to return Islam to its "pure" form, as it was practiced by the Prophet Muhammad and his followers in 7th century Arabia. The movement does not look kindly on non-Muslims, and scholars say it has been too quick to declare some Muslims unbelievers for disagreeing with it. In its most extreme form, Wahhabi doctrine also supports permanent jihad, or holy war, to spread its austere interpretation of the faith.

Some observers fear that the royal family's strategy of stalling reform could play into militants' hands.

"Saudi society is very conservative and it doesn't like change," said a Western diplomat with many years' experience in the kingdom. "But Saudis definitely are changing. The real question is whether they can change fast enough."

Because tens of thousands of Saudis were educated in the West -- and many admire the American political system -- it would seem that the United States could be an important ally in their struggle for reform. But many liberal Saudis say they want Washington to stay on the sidelines.

"The debate over reform has to be resolved by the Saudis themselves," said al-Qasim, the moderate Islamic activist. "Any outside influences, and especially the United States, will make it more difficult to have real progress."

Since the end of World War II, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has centered on oil. Saudi Arabia, which sits on a quarter of the world's known oil reserves, is America's second-largest foreign oil supplier, providing about 8 percent of U.S. needs.

In return for the steady oil supply, the United States had supported the Saud family, ignored calls for reform, and provided military assistance against aggressive neighbors. In 1990, when Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded neighboring Kuwait, Washington sent hundreds of thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia and used it as a base from which to drive the Iraqis back.

The U.S. military presence on Saudi soil enraged Islamic radicals, who decried the Sauds' decision to allow "infidel" Western forces into Islam's birthplace. Bin Laden was among the harshest critics, and he vowed to topple the royal family.

Partly as a response to pressure from bin Laden and other militant Wahhabis, the Sauds in 1993 created the Shura Council, a consultative body made up of clerics, academics and business leaders. The council, which is appointed by the king and crown prince, has 120 members. But it has no formal powers, and the ruling family is not bound by its recommendations.

Even some liberal Saudis warn that this country of 22 million is not ready for full elections and that a rush to democracy could produce the opposite of its intended effect. They argue that if open elections for a parliament were held today, the winners likely would be tribal leaders and Islamists who are more repressive than the Sauds.

There are some reforms that both liberals and religious conservatives agree on: greater transparency in the kingdom's huge annual budget, establishing an independent judiciary and holding government officials accountable. But these reforms would require the royal family to give up some of its power, and that could lead to new confrontations within Saudi society.

"The House of Saud will fight until the last drops of blood to keep its powers," al-Awajy said. "It will not give up anything willingly."

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