Rise and fall of nations

China is almost certain to face a crunch of some kind. No country, said Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Head Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, has “ever survived a debt binge of such a scale without suffering a severe economic slowdown…and China’s periodic attempts to perk up its economy are like watching “a ping-pong ball bouncing down stairs”.

Sharma, who was speaking at an FCC lunch on July 5, shared this and other insights from his new book “The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in an Uncertain World”, including the 10 powerful rules for spotting political, economic and social change.

Sharma, who spoke at the FCC four years ago after the launch of his first book “Breakout Nations”. explained the forces that are triggering political revolts and economic slowdowns in every major region, and have turned the golden pre-crisis era into a faded memory. “How, in an impermanent world, can we predict which nations are most likely to rise, and which to fall? What are the signals?” His ten rules show , which how to read the political headlines, black markets, the world billionaire rankings, the price of onions, the growing battles over trade deals, and popular magazine covers as signs of coming booms, busts, and protests.

“Everything we believed about the world in the past decade,” he said. “Now there is an anti-establishment wave that will see sitting governments swept out.

He said Brexit was as much an anti-establishment statement as anything else.

Sharma is also a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs and other publications. One of the world’s largest investors, he was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers (2012) and one of Bloomberg Market’s 50 most Influential thinkers (2015).