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Can the EU move Putin on Crimea?

Matt BrownUpdated
Thu 6 Mar 2014, 6:45 PM AEDT

US attempts to get Russia to back down in Crimea have so far failed. Negotiations between the US secretary of state John Kerry and the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov came to nothing in Paris. Now the ball's in the European Union's court, but is that large and unwieldy body capable of action which might have any effect on Vladimir Putin?

Transcript

MARK COLVIN: US attempts to get Russia to back down in Crimea have failed so far. Negotiations between the US secretary of state John Kerry and the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov came to nothing in Paris.

Now the ball's in the European Union's court, but is that large and unwieldy body capable of action which might have any effect on Vladimir Putin?

Our correspondent Matt Brown is in Simferopol and joins me now.

Matt, let's begin with events on the ground. What have you seen since we last spoke?

MATT BROWN: It's pretty much the status quo, Mark. I mean, the Russian troops are still in control of the bases here. The Ukrainian naval assets that are here are basically blockaded in the port. You know, Russia essentially has the place still locked down.

MARK COLVIN: And when you say the port, that's Sevastopol, and you've got, what? Are there Russian and Ukrainian ships there?

MATT BROWN: Yeah, there are Ukrainian ships moored just off the dock because they're concerned about Russian troops or irregulars coming on board and there are Russian boats just off the coast in a sort of a blocking formation, if you like.

MARK COLVIN: Because, I suppose, it needs to be pointed out that Sevastopol, while it is, has been Ukrainian territory, there is also a Russian naval agreement to use it as a major Russian port, is that right?

MATT BROWN: That's right, and I think that this is one of the things underlying this crisis. The pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, did a deal to extend the Russian lease on that base out to around 2040.

Of course, he's been toppled in what some call a revolution, others, in Russia for example, are calling an illegitimate coup, and now I presume the Russians would be concerned that the future of that base may in some way up for question.

Obviously, given the situation, the real facts on the ground at the moment, that's not going to be in doubt because not only do they have control of their own assets here, the Russians, but they've got control of the entire Crimean Peninsula.

MARK COLVIN: There's a lot of geopolitics in this. I mean, Sevastopol is not just a naval port in the way that you have just explained, but it is actually a key to Russia's access to the Black Sea and obviously from there out into the Mediterranean.

MATT BROWN: Yeah, and you don't easily change arrangements like naval basing. There are other things of course like gas - the key role that Ukraine plays as a conduit for Russian gas being sold to the European Union. Ukraine's not just dependent on Russia for gas supplies, but also, as I say, I guess a gas highway for very valuable Russian exports heading over to Europe.

MARK COLVIN: Indeed, and that brings us to the role of the EU. First of all, as I mentioned, it's large and unwieldy, has difficulty making concerted decisions some times, but it's also basically got a gun to its head in that sense, hasn't it?

MATT BROWN: Yeah, I mean these economic things always go two ways, don't they? A lot to lose for Europe in dealing with Russia and putting sanctions in, but a lot of influence too. I mean, Europe is Russia's biggest partner. The trade between them's about $500 billion a year. So there's a lot of influence there, but also a lot at stake.

MARK COLVIN: And is there any indication whatever that the Russians have any back-up plan? Do they look as if they're, I suppose what I'm asking is do they look as if they're really getting settled in now, or could they be getting ready just to loosen the grip a little?

MATT BROWN: I think it's going to feel like a glacial movement, given the real heat and intensity of the past week or so. We're going to see now these negotiations - you mentioned tough talks between John Kerry, the US secretary of state, and Sergei Lavrov, his Russian counterpart. You know, John Kerry, a fair bit of diplomatic sabre rattling prior to those talks and getting nowhere.

The Russians know they're in a pretty strong position, I think, really. Britain and other allies in Europe, like Poland, are pushing for tough measures. At the very least, a suspension of EU talks about visa measures and energy with Russia.

Now, what, we're going to delay talks that might end up being resumed in the future anyway? Is that really going to make Vladimir Putin tremble in his boots? I guess not.

There are issues of targeted sanctions, but the speculation about this EU meeting today is that that probably won't happen, because as you mentioned, a large unwieldy body, but also some real politik for other countries that have a lot more at stake.

For example, the Netherlands with a much bigger trading relationship with Russia than it has with the US.