US Dollars, On the Edge of a Knife: Capital Flight Emerging!

US Dollars, On the edge of a Knife, Capital Flight emergingInflation, Runaway Freight Train

US Dollars, On the edge of a Knife: Capital Flight emerging!

As US politician's angle towards the protectionist policies guaranteed to
blow up in their faces, dollar holders around the world are voting with their
feet. The emerging picture from the economic, monetary and trade flow numbers
in the first quarter are unmistakable, and the "VERDICT" is one of "CAPITAL
FLIGHT". The noises coming from the salons of Washington DC and the presidential
campaign trail make it clear that the United States has no intention of honoring
its promises to dollar holders. Those dollar holders are going to be stiffed.
So, it's unanimous, everyone is selling at the margin, except the Japanese.
The dollar is holding its own versus the Japanese currency, but this could
reflect dollar dumping as well, as dollar holders sell Yen and use the money
to buy assets denominated in anything but dollars on the buy side. The US is
about to undergo a fire sale of epic proportions, destined to go down in history
as one of the most flagrant examples of political and monetary moral breakdown
ever seen.

As I outlined in the previous edition of Tedbits (see archives for "The Bomb,
er, Bond market at www.TraderView.com)
we outlined the critical nature the US bond markets current price points are.
It represents a breakdown point which represents a critical long term point
which investment decisions are made by the biggest money in the world. For
these investors price is everything from which they their long term decisions
(monthly, quarterly, and yearly), a breakdown here will signal a spiraling
higher of US interest rates, and massive capital losses for dollar denominated
fixed income paper. Pushing them to take negative positions into the markets
to protect the values of their massive fixed income holdings. Meanwhile, Washington
widened the attacks of the Chinese exporters in several areas. Sparking outrage
from our largest lenders. Exacerbating the problem was the revelation of the
exploding of the size of the Dollar reserves they hold.

In the first quarter their Dollar reserves exploded over 135.6 billion dollars,
more than half the increase from all of 2006. Taking their reserves from slightly
over 800 billion at the start of 2006 to over 1.2 trillion in March. Take a
look at these Charts from a recent Wall Street Journal:

And
this is not an isolated instance, India, Russia, Western and eastern Europe
are all seeing explosive "DOLLAR DENOMINATED" inflows of Foreign direct investment,
inflows from their citizens living abroad and trade surpluses. Look at India
and Russia in the first quarter, They saw a similar jump in reserves that China
did. I am sure it occurred in all the capital markets worldwide, London, Moscow,
Hong Kong, etc. Adding to this rush to get money outside the US capital markets
is the "smart money" US investors buying record amounts of foreign securities
of all types, stocks, bonds and Real estate in foreign countries. To insulate
themselves from the foolish US politicians living in bygone days of American
hegemony of capital markets. More than 50% of all treasury issuance is usually
taken down by foreign buyers, aka central banks, institutions and "miscalculating" hedge
funds. Mostly to defend the values of their reserves and park the enormous
inflows of dollars as they flee the US. As people rush to get their money outside
the grasp of the US government. This is AKA (also known as) as Capital flight!!!

Now that flow of foreign dollars into the US is collapsing, Exasperating the
explosive growth in Reserve holdings of foreign central banks, is the emerging
trend of declining foreign direct investment into the United States (see the "Clock
is "Tic"king on the US dollar in Tedbits archives at www.traderview.com).
In February net foreign buying of securities with maturities of more than a
year plummeted to $43.2 billion from $83.7 billion in January, net buying of
long term US securities would have totaled $58.1 billion in February, down
from $98.8 billion in January. A subset of these numbers is the total collapse
in net foreign purchases of debt issued by US government sponsored companies
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which plummets to $2 billion in February down from
$35.8 Billion in January. Those dollars are now staying at home or seeking
opportunities in markets with more growth potential. And the prospects in the
US are just declining on a daily basis as the Congress sets to strangle the
US economy with their tax and spending plans.

The elephant in the room is known as the US dollar and it is in general disrepute,
and the "smart money" such as the people who read this newsletter are moving
towards the exits and the wave is enormous. And it's only begun a little bit,
at the margin: it is only the first several percent of the wave to come. It
doesn't matter which currency you view versus the Greenback: Russian ruble,
Indian Rupee, Malaysian Ringgit, Aussie dollar, Kiwi dollar, Philippine Peso,
Euros, Swiss Francs, Thai Baht, Chinese Yuan, Canadian Dollar, these currencies
and their foreign currency brethren are unanimous in their strength and appreciation.
Oh, and What a chorus of opinion we are seeing!

Please someone show me a currency which the dollar is strong against? You
may be looking quite a while, (in fact I couldn't find one) and when you do
find it compare the perceived image of the government that stands behind it
and compare it to Washington DC, at that point you will know where the perception
of the US government, US economic prospects, and financial authorities lies
in the eyes of the world. Can you imagine the US government held in lower esteem
then the military "Junta" in Bangkok? "IT IS A DISASTER", but also a big, big
investment opportunity so don't be scared. Move swiftly and "smartly" into
carefully considered and "structured" alternative investments of all types,
a "finger of instability" is flashing a profit opportunity. (Let me show you
how: www.TraderView.com).

Adding to the interesting first quarter picture is that of "GOLD". Little
noticed by the world was the fact that gold finished at three consecutive monthly
closing highs in excess of the closing monthly high we witnessed in May of
last year. It turns this whole chart into a great big technical formation flashing
an immediate move $190 dollars higher. Then in addition take a look at Gold
on a quarterly chart, as it finished at "all time highs", including
the June 1980 peak. Take a look at this quarterly chart of Gold stretching
from then to now.

WOW, what a picture it tells, any technical analyst will tell you as of the
March gold close, it is flashing a buy signal and a 650 dollar move higher "RIGHT
NOW"! Gold is also moving higher against "EVERY" asset class and currency I
could find. The European sold over 45 tons of gold recently and couldn't dent
the gold prices as they always could in the past: they are running out of ammo
quickly. At what point do they finally decide to hold onto their highest quality
reserve holding? Gold is emerging as a far higher quality asset then the dollars
and US treasuries they hold. My guess is soon. Gordon Browns presumed and assumed
ascension to Prime Minister of the UK will not survive his decision to sell
the Gold Reserves of the Bank of England at the lows of the gold market in
2001-2003. European bankers, politicians and finance officials will see this
soon and stop their gold sales. To try and preserve their future job security.

Normally when the dollar has been at his Juncture in the last 30 years it
has represented a "HUGE" buying opportunity as anyone that purchased US denominated
investments from abroad were generously rewarded with the double bonus of currency
appreciation along with the returns on the whatever asset they purchased. Take
a look at this chart going back to pre 1970:

Based on history this is a time to buy US assets and dollars, and from the
looks of this chart, now could be one such time. Will these investors make
a bet on recent (last 37 years) history? Normally these foreign buyers come
out of the woodwork at times like these, gobbling up US assets, will they change
their behavior this time? We will see, as it is now or never for the dollar,
because a break below those lows spells "TROUBLE" with a capital T. The IMF
and World Bank held their annual meetings this last weekend. It is the biggest
and greatest assembly of financial mandarins on the planet, as the coterie
of governments who have membership in these behemoths meet, plan and discuss
the economic and monetary future of the world. It is interesting to note here
that China refused to participate! And the bureaucrats at the World Bank continue
to set their sites on the President Paul Wolfowitz, trying to destroy his position
because his girlfriend worked there, as she did BEFORE he started there, the
real reason he is under attack is he installed "Paul Volker" to clean up the
place and he has found a lot of "RATS" among the bureaucrats. Paul is one of
the few "GOOD GUYS" in the world that will take on governmental, and institutional
corruption at all levels and "succeed" against the forces of darkness and corruption,
both at the bank and the recent UN food for Oil corruption.

(Authors note; looking for assistance in creating portfolio diversification
that can survive and thrive in what I am outlining? In fingers of instability?
If so contact me through www.TraderView.com.
Subscriptions to this newsletter are also free at this address; send it to
a friend, Thank you)

Along with their discussions of the US bond market (the 10 year Euro bund
market broke down hard this week, see Tedbits archives: The bomb, er, bond
Market at www.TraderView.com), I am
sure this was also a major topic of conversation in the smoke filled rooms
where these government finance officials and central bankers plot the future
of these markets which they believe they can control through their market manipulations
and PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAMS. It is them versus every private dollar holder
in the world and we will see who wins. I am sure the printing presses around
the world are all well oiled and the computers are all humming in preparation
for the epic battle unfolding before our eyes. Government Market Manipulators,
Demi gods, and would be "masters of the universe" versus Private Capital. If
the dollar slips below those THIRTY FIVE YEAR

LOWS AND BUYING PATTERNS, it is a signal that the world's capital assumptions
are changing for many generations going forward. It will happen whether now
or in the near future. We are on the cusp of the decision point, it can be
easily seen. You can make big bets using that chart and how it unfolds. WOW.
Got Gold? And because of this...

Inflation, A Runaway Freight Train

It has been interesting for me to watch other governments around the world
slowly but surely follow in the footsteps of former Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan "Greenscam" er Greenspan and the US government. Slowly but surely they
succumbed to the siren song of steady US growth and rising asset prices fathered
by Greenspan during his tenure as head of the most powerful central bank in
the world. Growth in Government spending and economies with out the cost of
the economic cycles disrupting their reelection aspirations.

WHAT A WONDERFUL ELIXOR, they came to believe. Central European, Japanese,
Chinese, Indian, and Russian governments slowly embraced more and more fiat
money printing and credit creation trying to recreate the perceived US growth
miracle of steady growth with virtually no recessions, slowdowns were OK, but
recessions were to be avoided at all costs, slow downs were OK, but negative
growth and the "ECONOMIC" cleansing that takes place during them were virtually
banished. It was also a great recipe for reelection, so it was easily embraced
by incumbent politicians and pushed onto previously independent central banks.
Economic Spring, summer and fall seasons were OK, but winter was never allowed
to emerge. Approaching economic winter was the signal for the printing and
credit issuance to go into high gear. The world now practices this as normal
operating procedure. They came to believe in the tooth fairy and something
for nothing wealth creation. Contrary to history and all economic history!

Economic winters known as recessions are very important and healthy events,
they clear out the weak hands and enterprises that are no longer economically
viable, allowing new enterprises to take root in the spring and blossom into
more effective suppliers of the goods and services then the recently demised
old guards. It is the creative destruction of capitalism and entrepreneurs,
and it and they invented new, faster, and more efficient ways of production.
Globalism is this written large, where whole group's of industries and old
ways of doing things are replaced by more nimble and productive new competitors.
It is the laws of nature written globally. Globalism is where old business
and political models go to live and thrive or die as plants do in nature.

Greenspan tried to reign in the punchbowl 3 times during his tenure: 1987
to defend the dollar, 1991-2 to reign in an inflationary episode (causing the
loss of the presidency by George Bush senior), and an attempt to reign in the
Y2K (a huge injection of fiat money to overcome the perceived Technical glitches
in computer programs which he expected to disrupt financial markets around
the world), which backfired and fathered the NASDAQ bubble. All these episodes
created crashes of one sort or another (see "fingers of instability" at www.Traderview.com ).
The last crash and the required mopping up reflation to support plummeting
economic activity resulting from the pricking of the Stock bubble and capital
spending bubbles. He also redoubled his previous two years reflation after
the attack on the world trade center. He and Central bankers around the world
rode to the rescue, to prevent a perceived risk of a Japanese style deflation
moving more broadly to US and foreign markets in 2001-2002.

Those risks were real in my estimation: a Kondratieff winter was avoided (or
postponed?). The US economy at that time was still the economic locomotive
to the world, a US decoupling was inconceivable and impossible at that time.
But they went too far in liquidity generation then and globally are doing so
now. It was a balancing act, and now these problems are written more widely.
US budget and trade deficits have gone up five fold since 2000, moving the
wealth of the United States to the Capitals of our trading partners and energy
suppliers around the world. This profligate spending by the government and
the population of the US does not include the theft of Medicare and Social
Security trusts funds by US politicians to fund their spending which now are
approaching 8.5 trillion dollars of missing deposits from their constituents.

I still vividly remember Al "the Goracle" Gore talking about lock boxes knowing
that his own party would embrace them over their dead bodies. G.W. saw the
same thing and proposed private accounts outside the government's greedy hands
but was foiled by politicians on both sides of the aisle as they counted and
spent the funds to finance the biggest expansion of government, spending and
entitlements in the history of the world, not to mention their reelection plans.
US Government spending has skyrocketed in 6 short years by 60%, and unfunded
entitlements have gone from 20 trillion to over 47 trillion dollars. Now those "set
in stone" spending plans are the father of the previous "Tedbit".

Since natural resource, manufacturing and Energy development in the United
States has been virtually halted over the last 28 years, the United States
now has no capacity or infrastructure to provide for its own needs in these
areas. Also destroying future job prospects for future generations in these
vital sectors of any economy. We have no capacity to increase oil, natural
gas or energy production, we have no capacity to generate electricity or process
oil into gasoline and heating oil, and we have no domestic manufacturers period,
for the most part, and last but not least we don't have the savings in the
bank to finance their future development. Slowly but surely these activities
have been moved off shore as politicians pandered to the "DUMBEST AMONG US" to
fuel their reelections, by promising that we could have something for nothing.
Avoiding preparing for the future in the United States. And what money we are
saving is being diverted to fund non-productive activities like higher tax's,
military boondoggles, government spending and entitlements. Now those "Failures
to plan" are setting in motion "plans to fail" consequences for the citizens
of the US.

If you now count the trade and budget deficits the United States must generate
3 billion dollars a day to fund the deficit, it must come from one of three
places. Domestic savings/investors, foreign savers/investors or the federal
reserves printing press. In order to attract the money it must expect a return
in excess of inflation. In order to do so we will have to pay more to our suppliers.
Whether it be raw materials, or capital these lenders expect to be paid in
excess of their cost of production.

The recent PPI release from Friday's is interesting to say the least: it details
a huge acceleration in prices on all levels. Core raw materials (ex food and
Energy) soared rising over 7.7% month over month, driving the year over year
rate up at 24.6%, Raw materials including food and energy rose at +15.7 yoy
(year over year) rate. Friday Michigan's consumer sentiment survey indicated
inflation expectations rising to 3.5% yoy from 2.5 at the beginning of 1st
of the year. We thank Greg Weldon www.weldononline.com and
Greg's insightful "Money monitor" for these numbers. These core input inflation
pressures are directly responsible for the unfolding wolf wave of collapsing
corporate profit growth outlined in the "fingers of instability" series available
in the Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com .
It's only going to get worse as foreign suppliers of capital and raw materials
must factor in the inflation of the monetary supply to meet the needs of the
United States embedded spending plans. Spending plans that no US politician
dares to touch, it is a recipe for early retirement as the something for nothing
mentality is now the majority of the electorate. And the wealth building parts
of the US economy are now located elsewhere, so additional new spending must
be met from the Credit issuance bought by the federal reserve.

Now lets look at the money and credit creation now practiced Globally by these
emerging and developed economies: (Thank you Gary Dorsch of www.sirchartsalot.com for
these numbers)

Euro zone M3: up 10.0 per cent

US reconstructed M3: up 11 percent

United Kingdom M4: up 13 per cent

India M3: up 20.3

China M2: up 17.2 per cent

Australia: up 12.7%

South Korea M3: up 11.3 per cent

New Zealand: up 18%

Australia M3: up 13 per cent

Japan M3: up 6%

Russia M2: up 49 per cent

This is future inflation, written globally, it will be offset somewhat by
oceans of cheap labor as the emerging nations 3 billion people step into the
chain of production. It is also an indication of a booming global economy,
which will be great for those nations running savings and trade surpluses and
unending unfolding misery for those nations that do the opposite (the United
States). Boom-times for the Global economy in general and stagflation for the
US and parts of Central Europe.

Since the United States has no surplus capacity in any respect and no plans
to really build out new industries (manufacturing, raw materials production,
savings, energy production, etc. these activities are punished in the United
States, you are attacked by the government for attempting them) except Military
manufacturing as its firepower has been seriously diminished by years of wars
around the world. Additional resources will be diverted from the global economic
wars towards refurbishing and rebuilding the military. Further impeding future
growth prospects and requiring lots of new money printing by the Federal Reserve.
Every major domestic political and spending priority in the US is misdirected.
Whether it is Ethanol (see Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com),
entitlements, energy production, manufacturing infrastructure, or whatever.
It no longer pays to take these initiatives.

So we will be forced to buy them from others and the only source of purchasing
them is a printing press or loan from the Banks. Borrowing money to consume
rather than produce. The US government issues a bond and the Federal Reserve
buys it. Shackling the taxpayer with the debt, as the politicians pursue their
misdirected spending plans and priorities to fuel their reelection. A recipe
for always-higher obligations, always-declining income and standard of living.
Debt is a call on future income. It transfers future buying and demand to debt
service. It is a recipe for inflation, indentured servitude and "financial" slavery.
Add that to the calculus of our off shore suppliers of "everything", (raw materials,
consumer staples, energy supplies, etc.) that the source of the funds to pay
them is always going to be a printing press and it leads to a conclusion that
they must raise their prices to us in everything. And they are doing so.

(Authors note; looking for assistance in creating portfolio diversification
that can survive and thrive in what I am outlining? In fingers of instability?
If so contact me through www.TraderView.com.
Subscriptions to this newsletter are also free at this address; send it to
a friend, Thank you)

The money and credit creation in foreign countries domestic economies is exploding
as well. As are all the inflation numbers in most economies around the world.
Creating the future requirements of higher interest rates in those countries.
Since they have booming economies, lots of savings and bank reserves they can
do so.

The US really can't raise rates as the slowdown in the US could turn into
a recession and exacerbate the Housing problems. Creating systemic threats
to the financial system, as the US is so loaded with debt on all levels: Federal,
State, Municipal, and private that it can't really contemplate further rate
rises. It is verboten. Talk like a hawk, but bail water as fast as you can
i.e. "PRINT MONEY", to try and underpin the sinking ship that the US economy
is. The US is now in a strait jacket constructed over the last 40 years, it
will not be easily escaped from except through "illusion" just as a magician
does it. They will inflate like mad, Inflate or die as Richard Russell of www.dowtheoryletters.com puts
it.

The illusion of stock market growth through inflation of money, as any observer
of stock prices priced in gold rather than dollars will tell you (see Tedbits
archives www.traderview.com for this
chart in the "fingers of Instability") exposes the true reality of dollar purchasing
power. If you factor real inflation into US GDP numbers the US is already in
a recession (ie. Negative quarterly economic growth), only the Newspapers don't
report it as the headline numbers are so massaged by phony inflation reports
as to create the illusion of growth in the reported real GDP numbers. Take
a look at this chart from a recent money monitor by GregWeldon of www.Weldononline.com:

Notice how the roaring "Twenties" was a brief period of dollar strength, that
period of strength was one of the reasons the depression was so bad as liquidity
contracted until the mid thirties. It is why Bernanke will not let liquidity
growth slow, his studies tell him the Federal Reserve withheld too much money
printing causing a scarcity of dollars thus driving up its value and purchasing
power. He is determined to prevent that spike with every part of his being.
So the dollar is destined to spiral lower from excess liquidity and credit
creation. This chart illustrates the central theme of US central banking, and
banking worldwide, growth through the illusion of higher "paper" priced assets.
While if goods and services are priced in gold they are now the same price
as they were at that time. A good suit cost an ounce of gold in the twenties,
it does so now, its price has not changed in real money "GOLD", only the purchasing
power of the dollar has declined. You can do this exercise with a barrel of
oil, the price of a car, a house etc. they are almost the same price in ounces
of gold as they were historically. The only nominal price changes have come
from the loss of purchasing power of the dollar, Euros, British Pounds, etc.
that they are priced in.

The central banks, sovereign finance officials and politicians have worked
hard to keep the price of gold from unmasking their irresponsible inflation
buy selling their reserves into the markets, they are failing. They will continue
to fail as more and more people realize what's unfolding and move into things
that cannot be stolen with the printing presses. This theft of the purchasing
power of your currencies is accelerating as the table above illustrates. As
inflation measures worldwide are clearly signaling this reality. It is why
asset prices are soaring, as that is the only place you can escape the onslaught
of the printing presses, as they just reprice in the lower "purchasing power" of
the script. But these refuges are only available to the owners of capital,
not the masses: they are saddled with paying the bills for the politicians
who have promised them something for nothing. The same politicians they vote
for over and over because they cannot figure out this reality. They see the
reality of ever decreasing pay every time they go to the grocery store! And
believe it is the Capitalists who are doing this to them, when in reality it
is their own chosen POPULOUS LEADERS! Inflation is here to stay at this point
as the money and credit creation have reached a point where is cannot be withdrawn
with a deflationary depression such as the great depression in the thirties.
So learn to invest properly to reflect reality and thrive.

In conclusion : Cash is Trash, and it is set to get worth less and less. The
dollar is at a critical point, watch it closely right here. If it slips below
those lows easily seen on the chart above understand that the dollar is set
to lose even more of what little value it still has. It will become a debacle
below that low, because there are now so so many of them worldwide, and the
exits are actually quite small in comparison to the number of them. The exits
are things that can't be printed, other currencies suffer the same problems
the dollar does and foreign banking officials are doing everything they can
to catch up to the irresponsibility of US officials before them. Currencies
as a depository for wealth will be replaced with unprintable assets as depositories
wealth. That includes stocks, commodities, real estate, etc. Bonds are set
to become the guaranteed confiscation of wealth that the currencies they are
constituted in do so. Inflation is set to run away as more and more people
come to realize this reality and flee to the safety of unprintable assets.
AT THE MARGIN. Bull markets anyone?

Thank you for reading Tedbits, don't miss the next edition as it will be a
real shocker. If you enjoyed this edition of Tedbits then subscribe
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Tedbits is authored by Theodore "Ty" Andros, and is registered with TraderView,
a registered CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and TraderVest Clearing LLC a
GIB (Guaranteed Introducing Broker). He currently is the principle of TraderView,
a managed futures and alternative investment boutique. Mr. Andros began his
commodity career in the early 1980's and became a managed futures specialist
beginning in 1985. Mr. Andros duties include marketing, sales, and portfolio
selection and monitoring, customer relations and all aspects required in building
a successful managed futures and alternative investment brokerage service.
Mr. Andros attended the University of San Diego, and the University of Miami,
majoring in Marketing, Economics and Business Administration. He began his
career as a broker in 1983, and has worked his way to the creation of TraderView
of which he is the CEO. Mr. Andros is active in Economic analysis and
brings this information and analysis to his clients on a regular basis. Ty
prides himself on his personal preparation for the markets as they unfold.
Developing a loyal clientele.

For greater insight into the philosophy behind Tedbits, have a look at
the Tedbits Overview -
To help understand our mission in serving you, the TedBits Overview gives
a broad description of what's unfolding globally and what you can expect
from Tedbits as a regular reader.

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