#FutureKPI is still projecting Alabama vs. Florida State in the championship game, but now Alabama is projected #1 while Florida State is projected #2. Fresno State (#FutureKPI #11) is projected to finish undefeated and eligible for a BCS bowl bid.

If the seven teams currently undefeated all win out, #FutureKPI projects #1 Alabama (.442), #2 Florida State (.390), #3 Oregon (.386), #4 Baylor (.370), #5 Ohio State (.300), #11 Fresno State (.240) and #14 Northern Illinois (.227). The gap between Oregon and Florida State has closed and is virtually tied now. Unexpected results for Florida State opponents (like Pittsburgh’s loss at Navy on 10/26) have hurt Florida State, while Pac-12 competition heats up for Oregon. As said last week here, the quality of opponent undefeated teams face in a potential conference championship game is going to be important.

Florida State has taken on five different teams who were undefeated when they played them. They have beaten all five by a combined score of 250-47.

Michigan State’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown in 182:17 of elapsed game time. By time MSU plays Nebraska in their next game on Nov. 16, the Spartans will have gone 34 days without allowing a touchdown.

There are seven teams ranked in both polls who are not ranked in the #KPI top 25: #27 UCLA, #29 Texas A&M, #31 Fresno State, #32 Louisville, #34 Wisconsin, #36 Texas Tech and #41 Northern Illinois. There are also seven teams ranked in the #KPI top 25 not ranked in either poll: #6 BYU, #12 Georgia, #21 Virginia Tech, #22 Mississippi, #23 Houston, #24 Michigan and #25 Georgia Tech. Five of those seven teams received votes in both polls. 18 of the top-20 #KPI teams are in the top 25 of both polls.

Why are there a few outliers? Strength of schedule. #6 BYU has played 7 of 8 games against teams at or above .500. The same holds true for #12 Georgia, who has the #1 #KPI strength of schedule.

The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.3 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.0 PPG.

The current adjustments are +0.10 for road teams, -0.12 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.

The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (34.4 PPG). The SEC is second (32.8 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (32.5 PPG).

The ACC is allowing the fewest points (22.9 PPG). The SEC is second (24.4 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (24.7 PPG).

Oklahoma State (+22), Boston College (+17), Michigan State (+14), USC (+13) and Wisconsin (+13) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week. Oregon State (-16), Wake Forest (-14), Indiana (-12), TCU (-12) and South Alabama (-12) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.

The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) Eastern Washington 49, Oregon State 46, (2) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19, (3) Virginia 19, BYU 16, (4) Iowa 23, Minnesota 7 and (5) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21.

Virginia’s win over BYU is the top outlier win among all FBS vs. FBS games. Clemson’s loss to Florida State is the top outlier loss currently on the board.