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We are now over a month into the season, and there is finally enough data to make a reasonable bracket.

ONE SEEDS

With a win over Gonzaga, the Bulldogs are a clear one seed and unbeaten Kansas is, too, with neutral court wins over Tennessee, Michigan State, and Marquette. Surprisingly strong Michigan is overwhelming opponents and is third overall, while Duke passes the eye test with such flying colors that the last one seed goes to them.

Thanks to everyone for following the site this season. I feel good about my first seven lines and really uneasy with lines 8-11 (especially having an underwhelming Louisville in). Davidson’s victory over Rhode Island moves St Mary’s to my first team out and drops USC into the First Four in Dayton.

My first four out are, in order, St Mary’s, Arizona State, Marquette, and Middle Tennessee. Baylor, Syracuse, and Oklahoma State are also serious contenders. Any other at-large selection would really surprise me.

It’s finally here. It’s Selection Sunday! You can listen to the Selection Sunday Bracket Talk podcast using the Bracket Talk link in the right.

Below is the bracket entering the day. There still may be some minor changes before the Selection Show, but this is pretty much it.

St Mary’s, Louisville, St Bonaventure, and Creighton In:

My projected First Four has a surprise: Louisville is in. I know that is a really unpopular opinion amongst bracketologists, but the resume isn’t all that bad once you really delve into it. They have three Quadrant One road victories, two of which are against teams expected to be in the field (Virginia Tech and Florida State). And while they do have a home loss to Syracuse, every other loss has been to a sure NCAA team. Selection Chair Bruce Rasmussen has spoken about how he doesn’t think teams get enough credit for winning the games they are supposed to. Well, nobody did a better job of that than the Cards. And in a selection process that looks more and more at advanced metrics, all three team sheet advanced metrics have them among the best 36 teams in the country (not even counting auto bids).

St Mary’s also sneaks in as the last team in the field if Davidson loses to Rhode Island. As much as I dislike this profile, they only lost five games and they won at Gonzaga. Advanced metrics also like them a lot and they have a star player (Londale).

I’m very hesitant with these picks because the number of quality wins aren’t there in comparison with Marquette and Arizona State (the other two teams I have right on the cutline). But at the end of the day, I am confident Louisville and St Mary’s are better basketball teams than Marquette and Arizona State. The committee takes their charge very seriously, and that’s why I am calling for an upset – both Marquette and Arizona State miss.

LOOKING SOLID – These 2 teams are likely to be in the field, but they enter Championship Week without a bid fully locked up. They may be able to take an early conference tournament loss, but it is no guarantee:

Nevada
Rhode Island

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

Alabama – The Tide have plenty of quality wins, but that record (17-14) is brutal. They can’t afford to go winless in St. Louis. But how many wins they need is very much up in the air.

Arizona State – At one time, Arizona State was a one seed on this site. Now, they look unlikely to make the field after losing to Colorado on a neutral floor. They’re going to be very close to the cutline. They’re very likely to find themselves in the last four in or first four out.

Butler – The Bulldogs get Seton Hall in the Big East quarters. A win should be enough to dance. Whether a loss will be fatal would be a close call. They would probably end up barely staying in the field.

Providence – There are great wins over Villanova and Xavier, but those were in Providence. The three bad losses could be a differentiator if they fall too close to the cut line. A win over Creighton, if they can get it, should send them through.

USC – The Trojans could’ve all but punched their ticket with a home win over UCLA. Instead, they’re right near the cutline. They’re actually in pretty decent shape now after seeing so many bubble teams fall on Wednesday. Avoiding a bad loss should be enough.

St Mary’s – The Gaels seemingly put themselves in position to miss the tournament ever year by failing to schedule tough out of conference. This year is no different. They’ll need to keeping hoping for bubble teams to falter, but it is not looking good right now.

Syracuse – The Orange have a very mediocre profile, but that’s enough to keep them on the bubble. The win over Wake and loss to UNC leaves them right on the cutline. They’ll remain in bubble limbo until Sunday night.

Kansas State – It was an amazing Big XII season for Wildcats, as they basically won every game they should and lost no games they shouldn’t. That’s the perfect recipe for a spot on the bubble entering Kansas City. The good news is a win over TCU will almost surely send the dancing. The bad news is a loss is more likely than not to doom the Wildcats to the NIT (though it would be close).

UCLA – Winning at USC completely changed the Bruins’ outlook. They probably can’t afford to go winless in the Pac-12 tourney, but they’re a fair amount above the cutline. The odds are in their favor.

Louisville – Beating Florida State in the ACC tournament keeps them very close to the cutline, and may or may not be enough. Adding a win over Virginia would obviously lock them.

Utah – A run to the Pac-12 finals might be enough to get in, but even that isn’t a guarantee. If they beat USC along the way, they’ll probably make the field.

Marquette – After beating DePaul, they’re one game from a bid. All they have to do is, gulp, beat Villanova. Even a loss wouldn’t guarantee an NIT bid. There is already enough on the resume to give them a shot.

St Bonaventure – The Bonnies are solidly in the bracket right now. If they avoid a bad loss in the A-10 Tournament, they’ll likely sneak in.

Baylor – The Bears get West Virginia in the Big XII quarters. A win should be enough to dance, but a loss is more likely than not fatal.

Oklahoma State – Beating rival Oklahoma was an absolute must and beating Kansas is, too. Udoka’s injury for Kansas does leave some question as to whether the committee would view a third victory as well as they view the first two.

Notre Dame – The win over Virginia Tech gets them in the picture, but they still probably need a quarters win over Duke to have a good shot of making it.

Oregon – Beating Washington State in overtime keeps their homes alive, but the Pac-12 finals are necessary to have a decent shot.

LONGSHOTS – These teams aren’t totally out of it, but their bubble is on the verge of being popped:

LOOKING SOLID – These 3 teams are likely to be in the field, but they enter Championship Week without a bid fully locked up. They may be able to take an early conference tournament loss, but it is no guarantee:

Nevada
Rhode Island
Texas

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

Alabama – The Tide have plenty of quality wins, but that record (17-14) is brutal. They can’t afford to go winless in St. Louis. But how many wins they need is very much up in the air.

Arizona State – At one time, Arizona State was a one seed on this site. That’s how bad the PAC-12 season was for the Sun Devils. They’re still likely going dancing because of wins over Xavier and Kansas, but this bid is far from locked up.

Butler – The Bulldogs get Seton Hall in the Big East quarters. A win should be enough to dance. Whether a loss will be fatal would be a close call. They would probably end up barely staying in the field.

Providence – There are great wins over Villanova and Xavier, but those were in Providence. The three bad losses could be a differentiator if they fall too close to the cut line. Still, they have to like their chances.

USC – The Trojans could’ve all but punched their ticket with a home win over UCLA. Instead, they’re right near the cutline. A trip to the Pac-12 finals will probably be enough, but a loss before that would probably see them fall short.

St Mary’s – The Gaels seemingly put themselves in position to miss the tournament ever year by failing to schedule tough out of conference. This year is no different. They’ll need to beat BYU in the WCC tournament and hope other bubble teams falter to make the field.

Syracuse – The Orange have a very mediocre profile, but that’s enough to keep them on the bubble. The equation is simple: beat UNC and get in, beat only Wake and sweat it out, lose to Wake and accept what is almost a sure NIT bid.

Washington – Winning at potential one seed Kansas is a huge feather in the cap, but the Huskies simply didn’t consistently beat the teams they should beat. They’ll have to do serious work in the conference tournament.

Kansas State – It was an amazing Big XII season for the Wildcats, as they basically won every game they should and lost no games they shouldn’t. That’s the perfect recipe for a spot on the bubble entering Kansas City. The good news is a win over TCU will almost surely send them dancing. The bad news is a loss is more likely than not to doom the Wildcats to the NIT (though it would be close).

UCLA – Winning at USC completely changed the Bruins’ outlook. They probably can’t afford to go winless in the Pac-12 tourney, but they’re a fair amount above the cutline. The odds are in their favor.

Louisville – Beating Florida State in the ACC tournament would keep them very close to the cutline, and may or may not be enough. Adding a win over Virginia would obviously lock them. Losing to FSU, though, would almost certainly send them to the NIT.

Utah – A run to the Pac-12 finals might be enough to get in, but even that isn’t a guarantee.

Marquette – They are right on the cutline and their Big East Tournament performance will determine whether they make it. Winning two games (over DePaul and Villanova) should see them through. Beating only DePaul, though, may not be enough.

St Bonaventure – The Bonnies are solidly in the bracket right now. If they avoid a bad loss in the A-10 Tournament, they’ll likely sneak in.

Baylor – The Bears get West Virginia in the Big XII quarters. A win should be enough to dance, but a loss is more likely than not fatal.

Oklahoma State – Beating rival Oklahoma is an absolute must and beating Kansas probably is, too. If the Cowboys do get a third win over Kansas, though, they’ll likely be dancing.

LONGSHOTS – These teams aren’t totally out of it, but their bubble is on the verge of being popped:

We are only one week from Selection Sunday, which means the bracket really is starting to take its final shape. As proof, last year on this site, every team’s actual final seed was within two seed lines of where they were in my Sunday bracket that I released one week before the Selection Show.

So you can expect with a high degree of certainty that your favorite team will be within two seed lines of where they’re listed here.

One Seed Shift

Kansas remains a one seed after getting whipped at Oklahoma State. However, it moves them from three overall to four overall. Xavier is the beneficiary, heading to Omaha as the Midwest one seed. Villanova, Xavier, and Kansas can all lock one seeds by winning their league tournament. Virginia has already locked a one seed and will likely remain one overall regardless of what happens to them in Brooklyn’s ACC Tournament.

Second Round Meetings Between ACC Teams?

The ACC has a lot of teams at the top of the bracket and in the middle of the bracket, so don’t think it’s a mistake that Florida State and Syracuse could draw ACC foes in round two. They only played Virginia and Duke, respectively, once each, so they are allowed to meet that early in the tournament.

First Five Out

In case you’re wondering, the five closest teams to the bracket that are currently out are, in order, Marquette, USC, Utah, Louisville, and Temple. So don’t be surprised if any of those teams end back up in the bracket.

LOOKING SOLID – These 5 teams are likely to be in the field and will cement a spot with the following number of regular season wins:

Alabama – 1
Butler – 1
Florida State – 1
Arizona State – 1
Nevada – 1

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

Rhode Island – The Rams have dropped to the bubble after a couple of losses to end the season. They’re still well clear of the cutline right now, but a bad loss in the A-10 Tournament could prove catastrophic. The only truly noteworthy win is by one over Seton Hall. The committee won’t love that.

Providence – There are great wins over Villanova and Xavier, but those were in Providence. The three bad losses could be a differentiator if they fall too close to the cut line. Still, they have to like their chances.

Texas – The Longhorns picked up a desperately needed one-point home win over Oklahoma State before losing at Kansas. Their five Quadrant 1 wins are great, but their 17-13 overall record is not. Still, a home win over West Virginia should be enough to see them through to the NCAAs if they can get it.

USC – The Trojans are playing surprisingly well sans Boatwright. That said, they have ZERO wins against definite tournament teams and a home loss to Princeton. Beating UCLA will make them sleep a whole lot easier.

St Mary’s – The Gaels seemingly put themselves in position to miss the tournament every year by failing to schedule tough out of conference. This year is no different. They’ll need to beat BYU in the WCC tournament and hope other bubble teams falter to make the field.

Syracuse – The Orange have a very mediocre profile, but that’s enough to keep them on the bubble. Wins at Miami and Louisville will help, but there isn’t a marquee win on the resume. That will hurt if they fail to beat Clemson. But a win will likely do the trick.

Washington – Winning at likely one seed Kansas is a huge feather in the cap that should take away all of the sting from losing to Oregon State. It’s crucial that the Huskies defend their home court against Oregon to close out the year. If they do, they’ll likely find themselves on the right side of the bubble.

Kansas State – This profile is nice, but TCU at home, at Texas, and at Baylor shouldn’t be your best three wins of the year if you’re trying to make the tournament from a power conference. Protecting their home court against Baylor would leave them on the right side of the bubble for the time being.

UCLA – It’s going to be a very tough climb for the Bruins if they can’t beat USC. Even a win there would be no guarantee.

Georgia – A one-point home loss to Texas A&M on Wednesday is a particularly brutal way for a bubble team to lose. If they can’t win at Tennessee, it’s likely auto bid or bust.

Middle Tennessee – There are three Quadrant 1 wins, a strong 20th-rated RPI, and no truly bad losses. But they don’t have a single win over a team that is in serious competition for an at-large bid. If MTSU loses in the CUSA Tournament, then this one will be VERY close.

Louisville – With a second left to play, Louisville looked like a lock against Virginia. A five-point final second for Virginia later and the Cards were right back on the cutline. Still, a win at NC State will likely be just enough if they can get it today.

Utah – Getting blown out by USC is not the right statement to make right now, but there is still enough good on the resume to be close (including three Quadrant 1 road wins). It will take a run in the PAC-12 tournament to make it, but this could still happen.

Marquette – Winning at Georgetown was step one. Now they need to beat Creighton or make a Big East finals run to have a chance.

St Bonaventure – The Bonnies would likely be in if Selection Sunday were today, but they still have to play Saint Louis on the road. If an at-large is needed, it may very well come down to how many A-10 tournament games they win.

Baylor – The Bears really needed that win over Oklahoma. They’ll get a chance to firm up a bid on the road against Kansas State.

Loyola-Chicago – They get a grade bump from Longshot to Truly Bubbly after an MVC quarterfinals win. Now they get Bradley before a potential tilt with Illinois State or Southern Illinois. Odds are probably against them unless they win the whole thing, but this will be very close if they need the at-large (likely First Four Out).

Penn State – A third win over Ohio State was enough for a grade bump, but they still need to beat Purdue to be in the thick of it. My gut says they get in if they beat Purdue in the Big Ten semis, but it would be close.

LONGSHOTS – These teams aren’t totally out of it, but their bubble is on the verge of being popped:

Last night, Louisville was up four on Virginia with a second left to play. A foul on a three-pointer and a running the baseline violation led to a buzzer beating three by UVA, and Louisville went from a lock to the last team in the bracket because of a lack of quality wins balanced by three Q1 wins on the road.