Gartner: Windows Phone to overtake BlackBerry in 2013, iOS in 2015

Gartner is now predicting that Windows Phone will be the second smartphone OS in terms of marketshare behind Android OS as of 2015, but overtaking BlackBerry in 2013, and then iOS in 2015. This report basically mirrors last week’s IDC prediction. Why such a prediction?

This bold claim is essential based on the same assumption that because Nokia is dropping Symbian in favor of Windows Phone 7 (and future versions of Windows Phone) then Microsoft’s mobile OS will get a gigantic boost in consumer adoption in the coming years.

Once again, all these predictions assume that nothing major will happen between now and then. But what about Gartner/IDC prior predictions? Do they add credibility, or just hot air? In 2007 iPhone released - Gartner/IDC were wrong about it's marketshare in 2011. In 2008 Android released - Gartner/IDC were wrong about it's marketshare in 2011. In 2010 Windows 7 Phone released - Now Gartner/IDC are suddenly geniuses at predicting marketshare in 2013 and 2015? I think not. In fact, all reports show that BlackBerry continues to shine and surpass expectations, including predictions that the PlayBook will the the second best selling tablet this year.