Monday, January 24, 2011

Saw this over the weekend, from the Jan 22, 2011 WSJ, "The Power of Round Numbers":

A study shows that round numbers pack a psychological punch, motivating both pro baseball players and takers of the SAT.

The researchers examined the batting averages if Major League Baseball hitters from 1975 to 2008, looking for evidence that crossing that crossing the .300 mark inspired unusual effort in a season's final games (including sitting out a game, or an at-bat). If it didn't, the distribution of averages from .298 to .301 would be more or less random. The researchers, however, found that the proportion of players who hit exactly .300 was nearly four times greater than the population who hit .299 (1.4% versus 0.38%).

On that note, I never understood why Adrian Beltre and Shawn Green didn't just sack up during their monster years, and hit a clean 50 home runs.

It goes beyond just the round number thing. It also involves the perception that a certain number is the benchmark for a feat without really demonstrating a justification for why that particular number should be the benchmark. Take batting .300 for example. Why is it .300 not .333 that batters and fans establish as a benchmark? Why 100 RBI in a season? Just because we have some psychological attachment to the number 100? Why not 125 or 138? Why not take the 10-year moving average for RBI in a season and make that our benchmark for success? Our minds just cling to the easiest number to process, I guess, which is many times the least informative.

[To fend off stat lickers: I'm not making an argument that batting average or RBI are necessarily the best measures for offensive prowess; just using these statistics as examples.]

@FB 8:28a: wow, that NYT article on the LAT was odd. Although I agree with the sentiment that the LAT has become a rag not worthy of its storied history, and the chronicling of the paper's history and founders is good reporting, I certainly wouldn't have led this piece off with two "man on the street" interviews as evidence of the paper's decline.

Dodgers' scout will attend the SOTU tomorrow night as guest of the POTUS:

WASHINGTON (AP) — An intern who cared for Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords after she was shot in the head and the family of a 9-year-old girl who was the youngest of six people killed in the same shooting will sit with first lady Michelle Obama for President Barack Obama's State of the Union address.Giffords' husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, however, was not expected to join them.Kelly was invited to attend but will remain in Houston, where he is based and where Giffords is now receiving medical care, her office said Monday. She was transferred to a facility there last Friday to begin rehabilitation after being hospitalized in Tucson since the Jan. 8 shootings."He wants to stay in Houston to be near his wife," said Mark Kimble, Giffords' spokesman in Tucson.Giffords and 18 others were shot at a meet-and-greet the congresswoman was holding for constituents outside a grocery store in Tucson. A federal judge, a Giffords aide and 9-year-old Christina Taylor Green were killed. Thirteen others were wounded.The accused gunman, Jared Lee Loughner, 22, pleaded not guilty Monday to federal charges of attempting to kill Giffords and two of her aides.White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday that Hernandez and Green's family would attend Tuesday night's speech.Intern Daniel Hernandez was hailed as a hero after the shooting. The 20-year-old University of Arizona student rushed to her side and applied pressure to her wounds until medical personnel arrived.When he spoke Jan. 12 at a national televised memorial service in Tucson, Hernandez pointedly shunned the hero label. But Obama, who followed him to the microphone, politely disagreed and assured Hernandez that he was, in fact, a hero."Daniel, I'm sorry, you may deny it, but we've decided you are a hero because you ran through the chaos to minister to your boss, and tended to her wounds and helped keep her alive," Obama said as the audience applauded.Hernandez sat next to Obama during the service. Kelly also attended the memorial and sat beside Mrs. Obama.On Tuesday night, Hernandez, the Greens and Mrs. Obama's other guests will sit in her box overlooking the floor of the House.Giffords' Arizona medical team — trauma surgeons Peter Rhee and Randall Friese, neurosurgeon Michael Lemole and nurse Tracy Culbert — also planned to attend the president's annual address, the congresswoman's office said.___Associated Press writer Mark Carlson in Phoenix and Associated Press Broadcast Correspondent Gerald Bodlander in Washington contributed to this report.