Turmoil Watch e un articolo da leggere

Since Mohamed Bouazizi set himself afire December 14 in Tunisia, anti-government protests have erupted throughout much of the Middle East, bringing down two leaders and threatening others.

This table details the likely social, economic and political factors that might lead to mass protests, the means for organizing and leading it, and how significant the collapse of the government would be for the rest of the world. Countries that are relatively small and/or have been quiet to date have not been included in the survey.

Human rights: Torture used to extract confessions; 388 people were executed in 2010, emergency rule

Leader in power: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in generally free elections in 2005 and re-elected in 2009 in a vote whose results were disputed by the opposition; Ali Khamenei, supreme leader, has been in power since 1989, appointed by assembly of experts.

Means Internet access 32.0

Press freedom 94.56 / 175

Symbol: Neda Agha-Soltan, whose death by security forces was captured on video.

Leader in power: King Abdullah inherited the throne in 1999 as heir to dynasty in power since 1921.

Means Internet access 27.0

Press freedom 37.00 / 120

Symbol: None

Organized opposition: Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamic Action Front

Who Cares Relatively small and poor country, Jordan is a key U.S. ally in the region

and occupies a strategic position between Israel, Palestinian-ruled areas, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

So Far Weekly demonstrations on Friday had called for prime minster’s resignation, but not king’s. Since new premier was named, protests have grown smaller, less focused.

Concessions New prime minster, Marouf Al-Bakhit, and government named Feb 1 with mandate for political reform and includes opposition and media figures; in January, government cancelled price hikes and added subsidies and government jobs.

Leader in power: King Abdullah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz Al Saud, scion of the ruling Al-Saud family, which came to power in the 18th century, has ruled since 2005. He is 86 years old and ailing.

Means Internet access 31.5

Press freedom 61.50 / 157

Symbol: None

Organized opposition: None

Who Cares Saudi Arabia has 267 billion barrels of oil reserves (the world’s largest) and 7.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (5th largest); while militarily weak, its oil and financial resources make it a key Western ally.

So Far Saudi Arabia has seen no anti-government protests, although demonstrators did organize to protest government failure to deal with flooding in Jeddah last month.

Concessions The government opened a Facebook page in February to allow citizens to file complaints.

Human rights: At least 5 detainees died in custody in 2010, with no serious investigations into deaths; emergency rule in force since 1963.

Leader in power: Bashar Assad inherited presidency from father Hafez although officially subject to referendum, which he won with 97.6% in 2007; Assad dynasty has been in power since 1970.

Means Internet access 17.3

Press freedom 91.50 / 173

Symbol: None

Organized opposition: None

Who Cares Syria is Iran’s chief ally in the Arab world and influences Lebanon; fall of Assad regime would likely undermine Iranian influence in region.

So Far “Day of Rage” organized on Facebook for Feb 5 failed to materialize.

Concessions Assad told The Wall Street Journal Jan. 31 he planned reforms for local elections, a new media law and more power for private organizations; fuel subsidy for public workers boosted in January.

Symbol: Mohamed Bouazizi, whose act of self-immolation inspired protestors, first in Tunisia and later elsewhere in the Arab world.

Organized opposition: Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT)

Who Cares A small country, Tunisia doesn’t have significant natural resources or occupy a strategic location; influence as the cradle of revolution has been overtaken by Egypt.

So Far Granddaddy of revolution, protests began in mid-December and forced Ben Ali into exile; transition government faced continued unrest until remnants of Ben Al’s allies were removed in early February; 200 killed.

Concessions Ben Ali’s allies purged from interim government and his political party banned; interim government has promised presidential election by July, dissolution of parliament and election of constituent assembly to draft a new constitution.

Leader in power: Confederation of seven emirates each governed by hereditary rulers; legislative body, Federal National Council, is half appointed, half elected by an electoral college.

Means Internet access 65.2

Press freedom 23.75 / 87

Symbol: None

Organized opposition: None

Who Cares The UAE is a major business center and major producer of oil and gas. It occupies a strategic position in the Gulf

So Far No significant protests to date.

Concessions UAE said in early February that electoral college will be increased 300-fold to about 12,000 people, but delegates will continue to be chosen by the rulers (12 out of every 1,000 Emiratis will be entitled to vote).

Human rights: Arbitrary arrest and use of force against demonstrators; allegations of torture.

Leader in power: President Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled for 32 years.

Means Internet access 1.6

Press freedom 82.13 / 170

Symbol: None

Organized opposition: Common Forum, an alliance of parliamentary opposition groups.

Who Cares Arab world’s poorest, least developed country, Yemen has

emerged as a base for Al-Qaeda, whose strength could be enhanced

by the collapse of the Saleh government, and lies close to oil-shipping routes.

So Far Organized and largely peaceful protests have occurred since January, but since Feb 13, tone has changed, with demonstrators called for the president’s resignation.

Concessions Saleh has pledged not to run for re-election when his term ends in 2013 or allow his son to run; he has raised army salaries, halved income taxes and imposed price controls.

Sources and Explanations

Median age assumes a younger population is more likely to take to the streets and, given

high rate of jobless youth in Arab world, more likely to be facing economic distress or dissatisfaction.. Median age for developed world is 39.9 and for Arab world 23.1. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.

Higher education measures percentage of relevant population enrolled in post-high educational institutions in 2001-2009. It assumes that more educated people are more likely to engage in sustained protests. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.

Treated respectfully refers to percentage of people who responded to a Gallup World Survey during the 2006-2009 period, “Were you treated respectfully all day yesterday?”

Poverty measures percentage of population under national poverty line. Sources: UN Development Program, CIA Factbook.

Jobless measures percentage of civilian labor force without work in 2010. Youth jobless rates are typically much higher. Source: International Monetary Fund.

Income Inequality is measured by the Gini co-efficient. A higher score means more inequality. Sweden’s Gini co-efficient is 25. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.

Corruption measures perception of malfeasance based on a survey of business people with a score of 10 meaning government is entirely clean and 0 entirely corrupt. Denmark was the cleanest country, scoring 9.3. Source: Transparency International 2010 report.

Human Rights focuses on torture and emergency rule, two violations that opposition leaders have cited as key to their demands. Source: Human Rights Watch 2010 report.

Internet access per 100 people is a measure of how deeply social media and other on-line tools reach the population. For comparison’s sake, the U.S. rate is 75.9. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.

Press freedom measures censorship imposed by the government and self-censorship attacks on journalists. A lower score means greater press freedom. The second number is the country’s world ranking. Source: Reporters Without Borders 2010.