Monday, April 02, 2007

The future

We seldom talk about the future on this blog. Many of us make the mistake that the future follows a linear line from the past to the present. However there are ups and downs along a general path. There was defeatist talk in the 70's after Vietnam that the planet would fall to Communist hegemony. For a while the forces of evil did expand and spread class genocide and death. Yet in the late eithies it imploded and where it exists today it is more a type of political corruption than a threat. Even in Accademia this is more of a story of nepotism than a coherent philosophy.

Iran is in the news and it offers challenges and opportunities. Many of you are aware that I am a fan and friend of noted Iranian writer Amil Imani whose latest writing is linked by Michal Ledeen. Amil has never written a single sentence advocating an American invasion of Iran. Such a move would boost support for an unpopular regime that is on its way to its own demise.

Iran is declining and faces many serious problems. It has serveral indigenous people seeking independence or to be reunited with their bretheren across borders. The oil economy is in its last stages and even if the nuclear program were 100% for civilian use this would hardly do more than postpone the inevitable. Iran also has a severe drug problem and all of this is being obscured by belicose rhetoric from the Mullahs.

The Iranian people are the countries best resource. In a modern economy human capital trumps natural resources. Japan has no natural resources, but it does have a first rate educational system. Long term natural resources are also dependent of human inovation. As prices for comodities rise cheaper alternatives are found. The notion that Oil as we know it today will be the key source of energy even ten years from now is just unknown. Maybe coal gasification will be a real energy source. Our enemies both Commie and Jihadi are extrapolating from the present to the future.

However, mankind has seen the experiments with Marxist and Theological utopias fail miserably. This is not to imply that religion is a spent or evil force. The notionthat a state should be run as a theocracy is absurd. In a coherent country religion is respected and not enforced by fiat. There are places where religion is enforced by religious goon squads notably Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, they also start with 50% of the population out of the labor pool. Moreover religious minorites live in a Jim Crow status and by nature of what they are must be authoritarian. Israel's version of Corpral Klinger has advocated expulsion for residents with a Jewish father and non-Jewish mother. His slightly more lucid mentor advocates an offer of conversion or expulsion.

Iran is at its apex of power now and the longer we wait the weaker it becomes. We could eliminate the Iranian Navy but the impact on oil prices would be disasterous.We could arm rebel groups in the Azeri and Kurdish regions. This would force Iran to focusdeal with its own insurgent mess. Ultimately the use of direct force should be on the table for leverage.

The situation in Iran is not as dire as many think. The question is not if the Mullahs will fall it is a question of where and when and we need an eye on the future.

Beamish in 08. What impact will this new media advisor have on the Beamish 08 campaign.

Many of you have inquired about what Beakerambo has been doing. He had a disasterous tryout for Dancing with the stars. His partner remains in a body cast as of this writing. His role as an exchange student in the next Harry Potter film ended up cut out of the film.

Harry: That exchange student is a disaster.Hermonie: Yes but he is popular with the women.Harry: Can you make sense of Professor Beamish's blast radius theories.Hermonie: It seems that Beakerambo has mastered Profesor Beamish's theories of enhanced firepower. Even if he is a magical zero he gets the point across.Harry: Beakerambo did you study levitation.Beakerambo; Me Me Me Meep Privacy Mi Me Meep Harry: Are you an idiot?Beakerambo: Me me mi meep Lock and load meepHermonie; Harry remember Beakerambo may be a magical zero but he is Prof Beamish's top student in applied firepower. Harry: There he goes no matter how many times he falls down flights of steps he never gets hurt.

19 comments:

Iran is another country on the brink of Civil War, Iranians themselves do not like the current direction of their leadership, so we should use that to our advantage, if need be.

On the other hand, I really don't see how any Muslim nation could ever really be a good Democracy, they will always cater to a Theocracy first, following the Koran. So maybe, just maybe all this fighting in the middle east we seem to be hell bent on, is all for not, if real change is not being made, if your just replacing one evil for a lesser evil, it's pointless, it's still EVIL!

Just thought I pop in and throw out my two cents, well I'm off to work, have a good day Beak!

Beakerambo was permited into the school as an exchange student. His role and that of Prof Beamish were cut out of the film.

There was a hysterical scene with Beakerambo playing the seeker on the team. It seems that his antics overshadowed Potter inspite of his propensity for crashing into things and botching spells and potions.

He did excell at Prof Beamish's creative demolition class. He also was popular with the female students who viewed him as a cute clod.

Payback's gonna be a bitch, Beak. Looks like Rudy "My Three Wives" Giuliani is in for some swiftboating. They are going to punch his corrupt teeth in. Gonna take more than that fat cooze Oprah to rehabilitate him.

Obama has his own scandals that make these silly. These also pale in comparison to treason, manslaughter and using your hose as a brothel. Lets also add having relations with a teenage page all acts that do bot bother voters in MA.

Rudy is a hero and Gomer Kerry is still a zero except in Vietnam, Cuba and France.

Duck,I noted in that article mention of what might have happened had the display been a chocolate MTP, most especially during Ramadan. Does anyone doubt that Muslims' reactions would have been a lot more than "strong-arming"?

Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall that there were any riots over the chocolate Jesus. If I'm mistaken, Duck, drop me a link.

Addendum: Discussing this chocolate Jesus rendition has something to do with Beak's posting?

AOW, the issue is not what the muslim reaction would have been.The issue is censorship in the U.S.

Besides, the Danish cartoons were printed and European muslims reacted in the same way that groups reacted here. They informed the paper that the cartoons were offensive and asked that they not be printed again. There were no riots over this issue in Europe.

There were demonstrations by extremists in the Middle East who will use anything as an excuse to get radical followers into the streets.

As a teacher you should be less prone to straw man arguments than Beak, no?

Beak's perception that an all-out invasion of Iran would only help them is actually true. I believe that the current Iranian regime will implode long before they are destroyed by outside forces, i.e. the US and Israel.

Israel and the US will succumb to PC thinking, pandering and tolerance, which means nothing will get done. I have lost confidence in both countries' governments. For god sakes, look at Britain. Blair has not done anything and the so-called "royalty" hasn't done a thing either - not even a statement.

The reason those CVBG's are headed to the gulf is to fulfill the US Navy's primary mission: to keep the sea lanes open - most particularly, the Straits of Hormuz. Iran could close them by using derelict ships and also mines, thus cutting off the world's oil supply.

About Me

I am a Rudy Republican . The
peril of being a moderate is
that at times you get hit from
both sides. Some say I am at the edge of the great GOP tent. Radical leftists call me a rightwing extreemist.Yet in the end all we can ever be
is ourselves.