Tropical Storm Harvey Intensifies; Flood Threat Stands For Houston

Spring, Texas – August 24th, 2017: According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Harvey continues to strengthen. An Air Force Reserve aircraft reports that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening during the next 48 hours is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. The storm is centered at 7 a.m, CDT about 380 miles (615 km) southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the southern Texas coast on Friday.

A Storm Surge Warning continues along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, a Storm Surge Watch from south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande and from north of San Luis Pass to High Island. A Hurricane Warning continues from Port Mansfield to Matagorda, a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Matagorda to High Island, and from south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning continue from south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Tropical Storm Watch continues from south of the Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas, to Boca de Catan Mexico. Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday.

Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

Impacts to Houston Metro (Including Spring):

Potentially life threatening flash flooding is still very likely. Due to this mornings shift to the west, Houstonians should be able to get through Friday without issue but as we look into Saturday night and Sunday is where our main concern now lays for extensive rainfall and significant flooding. Every media outlet is showing different rainfall totals, however, we are sticking with our original predictions of 6-12 widespread with localized areas over 2 feet.

Storm surge for our coastal communities of 2-4 feet.

Where will it make landfall?

Harvey is forecast to make landfall on Friday, somewhere in the middle of the Texas coast. With the westward shift, models are starting to agree on landfall around South Padre Island to Corpus Christi. After making landfall, Harvey will stall. Where Harvey will go next…your guess is as best as mine. There are many factors that will drive Harvey either east or west. Until some of these factors start to play out, Harvey is expected to stall over Texas, dropping significant rainfall.

Will Harvey become a Hurricane?

Yes, Harvey is forecast to make landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane, however, it is becoming more likely that Harvey will be approaching Category 2 status as it makes landfall late Friday.

How much rain can Spring expect? Flooding?

Even with the westward shift that we saw last night, Houston and specifically Spring is not free and clear yet. Like I said previously, each media outlet is showing different rainfall totals, however, we are sticking with our original predictions of 6-12 widespread with localized areas receiving over 2 feet. This is all dependent on how long Harvey is stalled over Texas. I think our biggest threat for significant flash flooding will be late Saturday night into Sunday with rainfall sticking around into Monday, Tuesday and even possibly Wednesday.

When will this take place?

Initial landfall Middle Texas Coast = Friday Night/Saturday Morning

It is still VERY necessary to prepare and to prepare for the absolute worst. If you live in area’s that are prone to flooding, start making the necessary preparations. Take action now, not later!

As always, please keep in mind that forecasting can and will change and the information published in the article is the CURRENT information being released. Spring Happenings does our best to provide you with the latest, current and most factual information available.

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