It’s a testament to lithium market expectations that companies will compete with each other to do business in Bolivia. When news broke that the country wanted help to develop its fabled Salar de Uyuni, several firms showed willingness to overlook a history of investment confiscation. So has one of the world’s worst mining jurisdictions become serious about opening what just might be the world’s largest lithium resources?

Yes, an April 21 government announcement would seem to indicate. Media reports say the German firm ACI Systems GmbH had been selected out of five applicants from China and one each from Canada and Russia to team up with the state-owned Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos, which would hold the lion’s share of a 51%/49% joint venture. The actual agreement has yet to be signed.

After winning power in 2006, Bolivian President Evo Morales gained a reputation for nationalizing resource and infrastructure assets, sometimes without compensation. State-run and co-operative mining operations, meanwhile, have suffered problems ranging from inefficiency to exploitive and even deadly working conditions.

Clearly there’s an incentive for Bolivia to change its approach to mining. According to la Razón, the deal calls for $900 million from YLB (all figures in U.S. dollars) and $1.3 billion plus expertise from ACI to develop facilities that would process lithium and manufacture batteries and cathodes, primarily for the European electric vehicle market.

Expected to come online within 18 months, the industry might eventually provide Bolivia with a forecasted $1.2 billion in annual revenues, 1,200 direct jobs and thousands of indirect jobs.

It takes enormous mineral potential to rationalize such optimism. While estimates can vary wildly, they all rate Bolivia highly. Uyuni has “likely the largest accumulation of lithium in the world,” according to the U.S. Geological Survey, citing a 2013 estimate of nine million tonnes at an average concentration of about 320 ppm. Another USGS report estimates a 2017 global total of 53 million tonnes, with 9.8 million tonnes in Argentina, nine million in Bolivia, 8.4 million in Chile, seven million in China, five million in Australia and 1.9 million in Canada. Comparing Bolivia with its Lithium Triangle neighbours, Industrial Minerals credits Uyuni with three times the resources of Chile’s Salar de Atacama and nearly 20 times that of Argentina’s Salar del Hombre Muerto. Some media reports say Bolivia holds as much as a quarter of global supply.

Resources mean little and economic reserves mean everything.

“There is no doubt that Bolivia has a huge lithium resource with Uyuni, most probably the biggest in the world,” notes Simon Moores, managing director of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “But resources mean little and economic reserves mean everything.

“In these economic terms—extracting the lithium in a usable form for the battery industry at a reasonable cost—Chile and Argentina are light years ahead of Bolivia,” he tells ResourceClips.com.

The country has been conducting pilot scale work, but nothing comparable to its neighbours. In contrast to Chile’s Atacama, Moores says, Uyuni’s high magnesium content and lower evaporation rate present processing challenges. “Most likely new or adapted processing methods will have to be employed, which adds a further layer of complexity.”

As for political risk, “the jury is out on any partnership in Bolivia,” he stresses. “In 2009, when this story first broke, there were a number of high-profile partners involved. Every partnership to date has failed. This is not to say any present or future partnership will share the same fate, but you are not only dealing with a challenging resource—despite its size—you are dealing with Bolivia and all the political problems that come with that. The risk is huge.

“Then when you are in production, the risk is even bigger. You just have to see the problems SQM has had with the Chilean government at a time of high prices and high demand. And they have been operating since the mid-90s.”

If Albemarle, SQM, Ganfeng, Tianqi, FMC get involved then you will have to stand up and take notice. Until that point, Bolivia will always be a lithium outside shot.

As for other companies entering Bolivia, Moores sees the possibility of “a handful of explorers becoming active and maybe one or two ‘industrial’ partners. But the key thing we always look for at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is partners with lithium processing experience. If Albemarle, SQM, Ganfeng, Tianqi, FMC get involved then you will have to stand up and take notice. Until that point, Bolivia will always be a lithium outside shot.”

He regards Bolivia’s infrastructure as another significant challenge, but not the country’s worst. “If big mining groups can make this happen in Africa, they can make it happen in Bolivia. The biggest focus should be economic extraction and the long-term viability of Uyuni. This is the biggest hurdle.”

Simon Moores speaks at the International Mining Investment Conference in Vancouver on May 15, the first day of the two-day event. For a 25% admission discount click here and enter the code RESOURCECLIPS.

Was it the comeback year for commodities—or just a tease?

by Greg Klein

Some say optimism was evident early in the year, as the trade shows and investor conferences began. Certainly as 2016 progressed, so did much of the market. Commodities, some of them anyway, picked up. In a lot of cases, so did valuations. The crystal ball of the industry’s predictionariat often seemed to shine a rosier tint. It must have been the first time in years that people actually stopped saying, “I think we’ve hit bottom.”

But it would have been a full-out bull market if every commodity emulated lithium.

By February Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported the chemical’s greatest-ever price jump as both hydroxide and carbonate surpassed $10,000 a tonne, a 47% increase for the latter’s 2015 average. The Macquarie Group later cautioned that the Big Four of Albermarle NYSE:ALB, FMC Corp NYSE:FMC, SQM NYSE:SQM and Talison Lithium had been mining significantly below capacity and would ramp up production to protect market share.

That they did, as new supply was about to come online from sources like Galaxy Resources’ Mount Cattlin mine in Western Australia, which began commissioning in November. The following month Orocobre TSX:ORL announced plans to double output from its Salar de Olaroz project in Argentina. Even Bolivia sent a token 9.3 tonnes to China, suggesting the mining world’s outlaw finally intends to develop its lithium deposits, estimated to be the world’s largest at 22% of global potential.

Disagreeing with naysayers like Macquarie and tracking at least 12 Li-ion megafactories being planned, built or expanded to gigawatt-hour capacity by 2020, Benchmark in December predicted further price increases for 2017.

Obviously there was no keeping the juniors out of this. Whether or not it’s a bubble destined to burst, explorers snapped up prospects, issuing news releases at an almost frantic flow that peaked in mid-summer. Acquisitions and early-stage activity often focused on the western U.S., South America’s Lithium Triangle and several Canadian locations too.

In Quebec’s James Bay region, Whabouchi was subject of a feasibility update released in April. Calling the development project “one of the richest spodumene hard rock lithium deposits in the world, both in volume and grade,” Nemaska Lithium TSX:NMX plans to ship samples from its mine and plant in Q2 2017.

A much more despairing topic was cobalt, considered by some observers to be the energy metal to watch. At press time instability menaced the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces an estimated 60% of global output. Far overshadowing supply-side concerns, however, was the threat of a humanitarian crisis triggered by president Joseph Kabila’s refusal to step down at the end of his mandate on December 20.

But the overall buoyant market mood had a practical basis in base metals, led by zinc. In June prices bounced back from the six-year lows of late last year to become “by far the best-performing LME metal,” according to Reuters. Two months later a UBS spokesperson told the news agency refiners were becoming “panicky.”

Mine closures in the face of increasing demand for galvanized steel and, later in the year, post-U.S. election expectations of massive infrastructure programs, pushed prices 80% above the previous year. They then fell closer to 70%, but remained well within levels unprecedented over the last five years. By mid-December one steelmaker told the Wall Street Journal to expect “a demand explosion.”

Lead lagged, but just for the first half of 2016. Spot prices had sunk to about 74 cents a pound in early June, when the H2 ascension began. Reaching an early December peak of about $1.08, the highest since 2013, the metal then slipped beneath the dollar mark.

Copper lay at or near five-year lows until November, when a Trump-credited surge sent the red metal over 60% higher, to about $2.54 a pound. Some industry observers doubted it would last. But columnist Andy Home dated the rally to October, when the Donald was expected to lose. Home attributed copper’s rise to automated trading: “Think the copper market equivalent of Skynet, the artificial intelligence network that takes over the world in the Terminator films.” While other markets have experienced the same phenomenon, he maintained, it’s probably the first, but not the last time for a base metal.

Nickel’s spot price started the year around a piddling $3.70 a pound. But by early December it rose to nearly $5.25. That still compared poorly with 2014 levels well above $9 and almost $10 in 2011. Nickel’s year was characterized by Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed metals and widespread mine suspensions in the Philippines, up to then the world’s biggest supplier of nickel ore.

More controversial for other reasons, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte began ordering suspensions shortly after his June election. His environmental secretary Regina Lopez then exhorted miners to surpass the world’s highest environmental standards, “better than Canada, better than Australia. We must be better and I know it can be done.”

Uranium continued to present humanity with a dual benefit—a carbon-free fuel for emerging middle classes and a cautionary example for those who would predict the future. Still oblivious to optimistic forecasts, the recalcitrant metal scraped a post-Fukushima low of $18 in December before creeping to $20.25 on the 19th. The stuff fetched around $72 a pound just before the 2011 tsunami and hit $136 in 2007.

Days after acquiring a Brazilian gold operation, Equitas Resources TSXV:EQT announced a new advisory board to help develop the project further. Last week the company announced its takeover of Alta Floresta Gold and a large portfolio including a modest gold operation. The Cajueiro project’s Baldo zone produces approximately one kilogram of gold a month, an amount Equitas hopes to improve through greater recovery.

A sample from the Cajueiro operation offers evidence of additional near-surface gold potential.

Michael Bennett and Jon Coates comprise the new advisory board.

Bennett has spent 23 of his 30-year geologist career in South America, where he’s credited with three gold discoveries, Cajueiro and Coringa in Brazil, as well as Puquio North in Bolivia. A Brazilian resident who speaks Portuguese and Spanish, Bennett also serves as general manager for Brazil Manganese and a director and officer of Equitas subsidiary Alta Floresta Gold Mineracao.

Coates’ 36-year career encompasses mining geology and business development on five continents. He spent much of that time with BHP Billiton NYSE:BHP, where he held positions including regional manager Latin America, VP of business development China and chief geoscientist, exploration. Until recently he acted as executive geoscience adviser for the Saudi Arabian mining company Ma’aden.

In addition, Equitas announced filing an updated 43-101 technical report that recalculates data from a 2013 resource estimate, providing new numbers for four zones of sulphides and oxides. Sulphides now total 214,100 gold ounces indicated and 203,500 ounces inferred. Oxides total 78,400 ounces inferred.

An upcoming program of drilling, bulk sampling and trenching will seek additional oxide resources at Baldo.

Negotiations with minority shareholders dragged out longer than expected but on April 27 Equitas Resources TSXV:EQT officially made the transition from Labrador nickel explorer to Brazil gold producer. On closing its acquisition of Alta Floresta Gold, Equitas now takes over a modest gold operation with the intention of increasing production—and cash flow—incrementally. Should all go to plan, that would bring a step-by-step payback for each new stage of the operation, as well as funding for further exploration.

That certainly contrasts with the traditional exploration model, with which investors can be quick to show impatience. Equitas experienced that first hand after just one season of drilling its Garland project, despite its compelling nickel-cobalt-copper story south of Voisey’s Bay.

In operation since June, the Cajueiro project holds potential for greater recovery, as well as expansion of near-surface oxides.

Looking for alternative financing, then-president/now-chairperson Kyler Hardy learned about Alta Floresta’s Cajueiro project through a friend in the company. Hardy not only liked its potential. He also recognized a good fit between the two companies’ teams.

Alta Floresta brings to Equitas its 100% interest in six gold properties with four production licences, part of a portfolio covering more than 184,410 hectares in Brazil’s central states of Mato Grosso and Para. The flagship Cajueiro project’s Baldo zone has been in operation since June, producing around a kilogram of gold a month. That amounts to recovery of only about 30% to 35%, achieved by running alluvium and saprolite through a sluice box.

Equitas hopes to see considerable improvement within months by installing a gravity plant, then about 85% recovery with carbon-in-leach processing that could begin early next year. Full open pit production would be a longer-term goal.

We expect the payback for each stage in less than a year, much less for the gravity plant. We’re derisking it that way, by building in stages.—Chris Harris, president/CEO of Equitas Resources

The plan is to “develop the project in stages and each stage has to pay for itself,” explains new president/CEO Chris Harris. “We expect the payback for each stage in less than a year, much less for the gravity plant. We’re derisking it that way, by building in stages. That could also provide cash flow for a sustaining exploration program which we hope would then beget further development.”

Of course these are perilous times for Brazil, now undergoing serious recession, a wide-ranging corruption scandal and impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff. Compounding the problems are their effect on the Brazilian real, which contrasts with currently high gold prices. “But what that’s doing to our project is creating huge cost compression,” Harris says. “That benefits both capex and opex.” The company has already selected a nearly new gravity plant in the region for purchase. Its price has sunk to less than half of what he projected last year.

Exploration will focus on near-surface oxides, where Equitas sees the greatest potential for resource expansion and low-cost extraction.

Except for one property slightly north, the entire portfolio sits on the Juruena gold belt, which has historic estimates of seven to 10 million ounces of artisanal output. Straddling the border between Para and Mato Grosso states, the 39,053-hectare Cajueiro property’s near-term agenda could include bulk sampling and trenching, as well as diamond and rotary air blast drilling. Exploration will focus on near-surface oxides, where Equitas sees the greatest potential for resource expansion and low-cost extraction.

A just-filed 43-101 technical report recalculates data from a 2013 resource estimate to allow for different gold price and opex numbers. The new study bases a cutoff of 0.25 grams per tonne on a near-surface deposit that can be processed by cyanidation or gravity processing. The report provides separate numbers for four zones of sulphides and oxides.

All four zones show near-surface oxide expansion potential, Equitas states. Five other anomalies offer additional encouragement.

The project has road access to the city of Alta Floresta, 95 kilometres north. A hydro dam now under development should bring electricity within two years, if not sooner.

The arrangement combines talent from both companies. Harris casts a close eye on the accounts, having 30 years’ experience in energy, commodity trading and mining finance with companies like Ernst & Young, CIBC, Enron UK and BHP Billiton NYSE:BHP.

Hardy, through 16 years as a resource sector entrepreneur and executive, demonstrates a facility for operating remote, logistically complex exploration projects. Director Alan Carter, who also sits on the board of Eric Friedland’s Peregrine Diamonds TSX:PGD, brings 30 years’ exploration experience with the likes of Rio Tinto NYSE:RIO, BHP, and ECI Exploration and Mining, among others.

Cajueiro’s alluvial lure suggests expansion potential to Equitas.

Co-director David Hodge also serves as president of Zimtu Capital TSXV:ZC, a project generator that supports several juniors with acquisitions and advisory services. VP of exploration Everett Makela began his career with Inco, eventually retiring as Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) principal geologist for North America. His international experience includes Brazil.

Mike Bennett, a local resident and director of Equitas subsidiary Alta Floresta Mineração, has spent 23 of his 30 exploration years in South America where he took part in three gold discoveries, Puquio North in Bolivia, as well as Coringa and Cajueiro in Brazil.

Also residing locally, Portuguese/English-fluent Richard Crew acts as operations consultant for Alta Floresta Mineração. His 30 years of experience includes positions as operations manager and COO for numerous companies worldwide. Another nearby resident, project manager and exploration geologist Elvis Alves knows the community as well as the minerology.

The deal has Equitas issuing 103.65 million shares to former Alta Floresta shareholders and 5.28 million options, exercisable at $0.15 for three years, to former Alta Floresta option holders. A 1.75% NSR applies to licences acquired two years ago from a former minority shareholder of Alta Floresta.‎

Earlier this month Equitas closed the final tranche of a private placement that totalled $1.5 million from 30 million units. Insiders bought 10.4 million units.

“We’ll be talking about implementing the gravity plant very shortly,” Harris says. “We’ll also be talking about starting our drilling plan, the drill results and possibly a revised 43-101. We’ll have a steady news flow.”

Ed Fast, the international trade minister, began Wednesday a cross-country campaign to get feedback from experts and actors on what kind of support they think the government should offer mining companies.

According to the Globe and Mail, the move comes as the Harper administration starts warming up its campaign machine for the 2015 elections.

For the first time in a decade, Canada’s normally bustling resource industry failed to book a single initial public offering (IPO) on either the Toronto Stock Exchange or the TSX Venture Exchange in the first quarter of the year, a PwC survey revealed.

However the future looks auspicious. Canada is among the top five producers of potash, uranium, nickel, platinum, aluminum, diamonds and steel-making coal. And global demand for commodities is expected to grow by up to 75% over the next 15 years, according to the world’s No. 1 miner, BHP Billiton NYE:BHP.

A Fraser Institute survey shows how miners and explorers see the world they work in

“Great mineral assets, highly corrupt government….” That’s sometimes the conundrum under which exploration and mining companies operate. And that was just one comment published by the Fraser Institute as it evaluated a world of challenges and opportunities in its annual Survey of Mining Companies released on February 28.

Between October 2012 and January 2013, 742 companies rated 96 jurisdictions which included countries and, in the case of Canada, Australia, the U.S. and Argentina, provinces, states and territories. Respondents considered 15 policy factors affecting investment decisions in those jurisdictions, for a possible maximum score of 100. Some factors included regulations, corruption, taxation, aboriginal land claims, infrastructure, the local workforce, political stability and physical security.

While the full report provides breakdowns by category, here are the top 10 jurisdictions for overall scores. The 2011-to-2012 rankings are in parentheses.

The Fraser Institute’s annual survey rates jurisdictional risk for a number of factors concerning mining and exploration.

Utah and Norway knocked Saskatchewan and Quebec out of the top 10. Greece was added to the survey for the first time, only to join Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for their bottom 10 debut. Another first-timer, French Guiana placed 27th overall, a fairly impressive ranking for a newcomer and non-First-World country.

Crisis-torn South Africa dropped to 64th place overall compared to 54th last year, retaining its fourth-from-last spot for “labour regulations, employment agreements and labour militancy or work disruptions.”

Of Canadian jurisdictions, Nunavut ranked worst at number 37.

Some anonymous concerns listed under “horror stories” ranged from uncertainty about native rights in Ontario to potential corruption in Quebec. One response stated that “endless ‘community consultation’” in the Northwest Territories costs the company more than exploration. Others noted confiscation of mining rights in Indonesia and expropriation in Bolivia.

A mining and exploration retrospect for 2012

One of the commodities that excited the 2012 market, graphite began stirring interest in 2011 and really gained momentum early this year. But the precipitous fall, right around April Fool’s Day, let cynics bask in schadenfreude. It was a bubble all along, they insisted.

Well, not quite. Despite reduced share values, work continued as the front-runners advanced their projects and earlier-stage companies competed for position in graphite’s second wave of potential producers. By autumn some of the advanced-stage outfits, far from humbled by last spring’s events, boldly indulged themselves in a blatant bragging contest.

Old king coal to regain its throne

If clean carbon doesn’t excite investors like it used to, plain old dirty carbon might. By 2017 coal’s share of the global energy market will rival that of oil. So says the International Energy Agency, which issued its Medium-Term Coal Market Report in December.

The forecast sees China consuming over half the world’s production by 2017. “Even if Chinese GDP growth were to slow to a 4.6% average over the period, coal demand would still increase both globally and in China,” the report stated. India, with the world’s “largest pocket of energy poverty,” will take second place for consumption.

Coal’s growth in demand is slowing, however. But its share of the energy mix continues to increase even though Europe’s “coal renaissance” (sic) appears to be temporary.

Bringing coal miners to new hassle

Chinese provide much of the market and often the investment. So why shouldn’t they provide the workers too? That seems to be the rationale of Chinese interests behind four British Columbia coal projects.

The proponents plan to use Chinese underground workers exclusively at the most advanced project, HD Mining International’s Murray River, for 30 months of construction and two additional years of mining. Only then would Canadians be initiated into the mysteries of Chinese longwall mining. But with only 10% of the workforce to be replaced by Canadians each year, Chinese “temporary” workers would staff the mine until about 2026. The B.C. government has known about these intentions since at least 2007.

The HD Mining saga has seen new developments almost every week since the United Steelworkers broke the story on October 9.

Resource imperialism aside, resource nationalism and other aspects of country risk continued throughout 2012. South American Silver TSX:SAC continues to seek compensation after spending over $16 million on a silver-polymetallic project that the Bolivian government then snatched as a freebie. Centerra Gold TSX:CG escaped nationalization in Kyrgyzstan but works its way through somewhat Byzantine political and regulatory intrigue, as does Stans Energy TSXV:HRE. In November the latter claimed a court victory over a hostile parliamentary committee.

A mining and exploration retrospect for October 6 to 12, 2012

by Greg Klein

«Le Plan Nord est enterré»

Plan Nord was nothing more than “marketing” for projects that were already in the pipeline. So says Quebec’s new natural resources minister, according to Sunday’s Montreal Gazette. But industry observers still don’t know how the newly elected Parti Quebecois will treat the mining sector.

Prior to the province’s September 4 election, then-premier Jean Charest vowed his Liberal government would spend $2.1 billion on a massive infrastructure program to develop Quebec north of the 49th parallel. Over a 25-year period, Plan Nord would attract $80 billion in private and public investment, he said. During the election campaign, however, PQ leader Pauline Marois called the Liberals’ planned expenditure a $2.1-billion giveaway to the private sector.

Marois also talked of imposing a 5% royalty on all minerals extracted and a 30% tax on all mining profits above 8%. Her election victory raised obvious concerns throughout the sector.

“People involved in the Plan Nord are very anxious to know the position of the government,” Nochane Rousseau, a partner in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Montreal office, told the Gazette. He pronounced the Plan Nord “brand” dead but added, “In order to create wealth, we absolutely will have to develop our natural resources, and northern Quebec is overflowing with them.”

Natural Resources Minister Martine Ouellet made her dismissive comment in a meeting with the editorial board of La Presse. She refused the Gazette’s requests for an interview.

New regulations disappoint Ontario explorers

Ontario’s exploration sector suffered a setback with a new mining law that takes full effect April 1. Probably the industry’s biggest chagrin is the requirement to consult native bands prior to early-stage exploration drilling on Crown land. The bands will have 30 days to express concerns, which could then block a permit, according to a Tuesday dispatch from Bloomberg. “It’s going to cost a lot more now and there are going to be a lot more delays,” the news agency quoted Mistango River CEO Robert Kasner.

Solid Gold Resources TSXV:SLD CEO Darryl Stretch told Bloomberg, “It should be the government’s duty to consult with first nations, not the mining industry’s.”

Stretch was a vocal member of Miners United, a group representing about 60 companies that surfaced at last spring’s Toronto PDAC convention to express concern about native relations. In a March 27 Globe and Mail story about the group, Ontario Prospectors Association Executive Director Garry Clark said that native bands charge companies for exploration drilling in confidential deals that often surpass $100,000.

Bullish, but …

Among those predicting more merger-and-acquisition activity are the three principals of NewGen Asset Management, which was written up in Friday’s Financial Post. “Our strategy is to identify those [most] likely M&A candidates,” said Manager David Dattels. The FP explained that one of the company’s portfolios “typically has about 20 core holdings, with others used as trading positions, including short positions that usually represent 5% to 20% of the portfolio.”

Dattels’ enthusiasm for the industry has its limits. “Mining has traditionally been a poorly managed industry. Corporate governance is probably the worst relative to other industries. Investors are smartening up to that.”

Consumers acquire critical commodity companies

Increasing demand and a 15% Chinese export tax have put another EU-designated critical mineral in the spotlight. Fluorspar “is used throughout the world, primarily by the chemical industry, for refrigerants and foam products and in the manufacturing of aluminum, Teflon, refined petroleum products, glass and medicine,” the Gold Report quoted Jennings Capital Analyst Ken Chernin on Tuesday. “There are virtually no substitutes for many of its uses and it is an essential ingredient in hydrofluoric acid.”

Chernin added that companies with deposits outside China are candidates for acquisition—and not necessarily by other miners. “In February 2012, the aluminum company RUSAL acquired the remaining 50% of Russia’s only fluorspar producer, [Yaroslavsk Mining Company], from Russkaya Gornorudnaya Kompaniya,” he said. “Fluorspar is used to produce aluminum fluoride, which is used in the production of aluminum. And in January 2012, the chemical group Solvay announced it acquired a 30,000 tonne-per-year fluorspar mine in Bulgaria from Italy’s M&M Group. DuPont and Honeywell are also big consumers of fluorspar.”

More of the same for Venezuela

Hugo Chavez “gets six more years to squeeze industries.” That’s how the Globe and Mail commemorated the results of Venezuela’s Sunday election. His 54% vote gives Chavez another six years in office, which would extend his presidency to 20 years. The Reuters commentary notes that “the nationalization campaign Mr. Chavez launched in 2007 has saddled the state with scores of loss-making companies.” Nevertheless he plans to continue nationalizing companies and confiscating mining operations.

Sad SAC

“Vehement” was South American Silver’s TSX:SAC denial of the latest allegations from the Bolivian government. The company’s Tuesday statement responded to an October 5 threat of legal action from Minister of Mines Mario Virreira, who claimed South American Silver had been working in Bolivia illegally.

The accusations “are patently false and have no factual basis,” the company said, repeating its intention to seek international arbitration “to obtain full compensation, including the fair market value of the Malku Khota Project.” Bolivia confiscated the silver-indium project in July, after SAC had sunk over $16 million building a resource. On October 3 Virreira stated the company would get zero compensation.

Cry the troubled country

Reports from South Africa said two more people died in labour-related violence early Thursday, while on Friday the three-week truck drivers’ strike ended. Also on Friday Atlatsa Resources TSXV:ATL announced that 2,161 fired employees would be reinstated provided they return to work at the company’s Bokoni Platinum Mines by October 15.

An attempt at reassurance came from Platinum Group Metals TSX:PTM. On Friday the company stated that progress continues on its application for a $260-million loan to build the WBJV Project 1 Platinum Mine in South Africa. Phase I development “has been progressing steadily and well…. There are approximately 325 people on site and the project has completed 880,000 man hours with a single minor lost-time incident.”

Not surprisingly the news was buried by allegations that surfaced on Thursday. South African President Jacob Zuma reportedly spent $23 million of public money renovating his home.

On Monday Kitco News summarized the situation for 10 major companies recently affected by South African strikes.

Canadian juniors explore the world. But beyond?

It’s twice the size of earth, mostly diamond with some graphite thrown in—but credit for the discovery goes to astronomers, not geologists. Apparently not the first diamond planet ever discovered, 55 Cancri e, as it’s unhelpfully named, “is the first time one has been seen orbiting a sun-like star and studied in such detail,” according to a Thursday report from Reuters.

And, as the news agency pointed out, “any fortune-hunter not dissuaded by The Diamond as Big as the Ritz, F. Scott Fitzgerald’s jazz age morality tale of thwarted greed, will find Cancri e about 40 light years, or 230 trillion miles, from Park Avenue.”

A mining and exploration retrospect for September 29 to October 5, 2012

by Greg Klein

So much for the environmental review

Monday’s news from British Columbia indicates another level of uncertainty has hit the province’s mining sector. Two B.C. cabinet ministers refused an environmental assessment certificate for Pacific Booker Minerals TSXV:BKM, even though the company passed a provincial environmental review. As a result, the half-billion-dollar Morrison copper-gold-molybdenum proposal has been put on hold.

A new development at the provincial level, it does have similarities to a federal decision to reject Taseko Mines’ TSX:TKO Prosperity gold-copper mine proposal for B.C. A November 2010 report from the Canadian Environmental Assessment Authority convinced the federal government to reject the $800-million proposal. The three-member CEAA panel found few significant adverse environmental effects but emphasized significant adverse effects on established native rights, potential rights, potential title, tradition and culture.

Now B.C. has taken a comparable approach, although the supposedly “environmental” arguments come from politicians, not the people who conducted the environmental review. In fact the provincial review repeatedly stated that, with successful implementation of mitigation measures and conditions, the Morrison mine is “not likely to have significant adverse effects.”

Nevertheless Derek Sturko, who’s both executive director of B.C.’s Environmental Assessment Office and an associate deputy minister of the environment, seemed to reject his own department’s 270-page report. He suggested instead that the government take a “risk/benefit approach.” Sturko also emphasized strong native opposition and a “moderate to strong prima facie case for aboriginal title.” On that basis, two cabinet ministers representing mining and the environment nixed the proposal.

The decision might be related to the pre-election BC Liberal government’s prevaricating but currently negative stance towards the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline. But the province’s decision, like the federal decision regarding Taseko, also raises the question of whether native rights are handled according to the principle of law or appeasement.

Taseko submitted a revised $1.1-billion New Prosperity proposal to the feds on September 20. On Tuesday Business in Vancouver cited analysts, for some reason speaking anonymously, who said Taseko’s $300-million revision remains viable despite a drop in copper prices. But “with a large question mark as to whether the federal government will approve the project on a second go-round, they’re currently ascribing no value to the project in their target stock prices for the company,” BIV reported.

On Tuesday Pacific Booker Director Erik Tornquist told ResourceClips his company is reviewing its options.

Confiscation without compensation

If miners haven’t given up on B.C., it might be a case of the devil they know. Wednesday’s announcement that the Bolivian government would not provide compensation for nationalizing the Malku Khota Project followed months of uncertainty for South American Silver TSX:SAC. Since 2007, the company had spent over $16 million building a resource of 158 million ounces silver and 1,184 tonnes indium with lead, zinc and copper credits.

The company claimed the support of 43 out of 46 land-owning indigenous groups. SAC blamed illegal artisanal miners and activists from outside the region for intense opposition from the three dissident communities.

But last May, the company said, Mining Minister Mario Virreira signed an agreement with the 43 supportive groups stating that the government will not reverse the mining concession and that the company should continue exploration.

Protests turned violent in June, with one death and several injuries. Later that month seven people were taken hostage, including three drill contractors, two SAC employees, a government prosecutor and a police officer. The final three hostages were released unharmed after 11 days, when the government decreed that it would nationalize Malku Khota.

Reuters quoted a confident-sounding Vice-President Alvaro Garcia saying, “If we have to invest $500 million or $700 million or even $1 billion for a large-scale project at Malku Khota, which benefits Bolivia, the state is prepared and has the capacity to do that.”

At the time he added that government might pay compensation of $2 million or $3 million. Then came Wednesday’s decree. In an Agence France-Presse dispatch printed in the Globe and Mail, Virreira stated, “The nation has no financial obligation to South American Silver.”

By press time South American hadn’t responded. In an August 2 statement Greg Johnson, then the company’s president/CEO, said the company is prepared to go to international arbitration.

But, as Financial Times correspondent Andres Schipani pointed out, “Getting fair compensation, or any for that matter, from Bolivia has proved tricky since 2007. A year after [President Evo] Morales took office, the Andean country pulled out of the World Bank body that conducts arbitration between businesses and governments …”

Schipani noted other troubled nationalizations in Bolivia, including the Colquiri tin mine taken from Glencore in June. The government rationalized the move by saying it could then end disputes between independent and unionized miners. But the conflict flared up again with more violent clashes which shut down operations. On September 14 Reuters quoted Hector Cordova, president of the state-owned mining company, who said, “We’re losing more than $250,000 per day through lost production and this has been going on for two weeks. That means an accumulated loss of almost $4 million.”

On Friday three Kyrgyzstan MPs faced criminal charges while political unrest focused on Centerra Gold’s TSX:CG Kumtor Gold Mine. Prosecutors say the three attempted to overthrow the government by leading a mob that stormed the parliament building on Wednesday, Reuters reported. The incident grew out of a protest demanding that Kumtor be nationalized.

Violence has turfed previous Kyrgyzstan governments in 2005 and 2010. Last June a motion to nationalize Kumtor failed to pass parliament but MPs did pass a motion to consider increasing the country’s 33% stake in the Centerra subsidiary that owns the mine, as well as redefining the concession and boosting taxes.

But reassuring news came on Monday when Kyrgyzstan’s new president Zhantoro Satybaldiyev declared, “Kumtor will not be nationalized.” He told Reuters, “Problems will be resolved. I asked [the Kumtor venture] to keep up its output.” He added, “The way they extract gold, it’s really a state-of-the-art job. To be honest, I am jealous of their skills.”

The news agency pointed out, however, that the government had cancelled a televised auction of mining licences on August 28 after protesters stormed the TV studio.

Kumtor produced 583,156 gold ounces in 2011 at $482 an ounce. But in August the company blamed its $54.6-million Q2 loss largely on Kumtor’s “abnormal mining costs.”

Last September Kyrgyzstan ordered Stans Energy Corp TSXV:HRE to suspend drilling at its Kutessay II REE Deposit. According to the company, the government wanted “a firm proposal for the gratuitous transfer of a percentage of ownership” of a company subsidiary to the state. The stop-work order ended as the company met with Satybaldiyev and Economic Minister Temir Sariev.

In a statement issued Monday, Stans quoted Sariev saying, “Our state does not have the necessary financial and technical resources for the development of deposits and we have, so far, no such specialists. Development of the mining industry of our country at this stage is only possible by attracting investment. And the investors will come to our country when they will be confident in the safety of their financial investments.”

South Africa: A tragic outcome from a positive move?

Another striking miner was killed in South Africa Thursday night. On Friday Anglo-American Platinum fired 12,000 strikers. A Reuters dispatch in the Globe and Mail stated, “When rival Impala Platinum fired 17,000 workers in January to squash a union turf war, it led to a six-week stoppage in which three people were killed, the company lost 80,000 ounces in output and platinum prices jumped 21%.”

One disturbing aspect of the crisis is that a generous pay hike in a poor country can cause so much controversy. In last month’s “Lonmin settlement,” the platinum producer raised miners’ wages between 11% and 22%. Nic Borain, described as “an independent political analyst,” told Reuters, “Amplats had been giving signals that it was going to hold the line after Lonmin had folded—but it’s a huge gamble. Someone had to take it on the chin or this would have kept on unravelling and spread through the economy. It’s difficult to know whether this causes the unrest to spread or whether it takes some of the sting out of it. It could go either way.”