Teaching German

terrorism

'Climate change allows terrorists to thrive'

A report commissioned by the German foreign office shows how in scenarios of instability and conflict, climate change can contribute to the emergence and growth of terrorist groups such as Boko Haram or "Islamic State."

DW: You describe climate change as a "threat multiplier" - what does that actually mean?

Lukas Rüttinger: Climate change interacts with other pressures on societies and states and increases existing risks of fragility and conflict. It can exacerbate livelihood insecurity, for example, and contribute to conflicts around natural resources such as water and land.

In sum, climate change multiplies existing security risks and increases the complexity of unstable situations since environmental factors interact with social, political and economic factors.

Climate change does not create terrorists or insurgents, but it does create an environment that lets them thrive and grow. In areas where the state lacks the authority or the capacity to provide security and basic services, non-state armed groups operate more freely. They use the weaknesses of the state to undermine it further.

On the other hand, the impact of climate change on natural resources such as land and water increases the livelihood insecurity of local populations, mostly of whom rely on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture. When people loose their livelihood, they become more vulnerable to recruitment by terrorist groups. These groups can offer economic incentives in terms of pay, or address grievances of local populations.

This is particularly important in local populations that feel excluded or marginalized from the government. Terrorist groups offer, for instance, prospects for youth who have no job and believe that the state does not help them.

In which way can natural resources be used as a weapon of war?

Since climate change increasingly impacts natural resources in a negative way, these resources become a valuable source of power.

Terrorist groups can control water as a tactic, by controlling water resources, creating floods or controlling critical infrastructure like dams. The "Islamic State" in Syria, for instance, tries to control rivers and water resources.

You've analyzed the link between climate change and violent conflicts in the Chad Basin, Syria, Afghanistan and Guatemala. What are the similarities among these cases?

Climate change acts in similar ways by creating fragility and undermining livelihood. These mechanisms create an environment in which very different armed groups can grow. Armed groups inside organized crime in Central America are very different from the Islamic State or Boko Haram - but the root causes behind them have similarities when it comes to the impacts of climate change.

So does the pattern also applies to violence outside armed conflicts?

The spectrum of non-state armed groups is very broad, including groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State, insurgencies like the Taliban in Afghanistan, or criminal groups in Central America, where they represent important security threats.

In some Central American countries, the number of deaths these [mafia] groups create is comparable to the victims of armed conflicts in other regions in the world.

Criminal groups in Central America are a major security threat

For those in Europe or North America, these problems might seem a bit too far. Why should all this matter?

Terrorists groups are actually not that far from us, and these groups have a global reach. The crises around the world, in Chad or Syria, reach us through refugees - but also, our interests around the world are affected in terms of security and economic development.

What can we do to face these threats?

At the moment [our approach to] security challenges in general, and terrorism in particular, is quite narrow. There is not a deep comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and interaction of different factors behind those phenomena. In order to devise strategies that really address and deal with them, we need to broaden our perspective and our understanding of environmental, political, economic and social factors. Solutions have also to reflect the multidimensionality of the risks.

In practice, this means that if we increase humanitarian funding in reaction to the crises, we really have to make sure that those funds are conflict- and climate-sensitive, and that they take both sides of the coin into account.

Solutions do not lie only in the security field; if we want to address these problems, we have to make sure that our development cooperation and humanitarian aid are addressing the right problems.

Lukas Rüttinger is a senior project manager at Berlin-based think tank adelphi and leads the areas of peace and security, and resources.

The interview was conducted by Irene Banos Ruiz.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

The "Arab Spring" effect

In 2011, as regimes crumble across the region, tens of thousands of Syrians take to the streets to protest against corruption, high unemployment and soaring food prices. The Syrian government responds with live ammunition, claiming some 400 lives by May.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

Condemnation without consensus

At the urging of Western countries, the UN Security Council condemns the violent crackdown. The EU and US implement an arms embargo, visa bans and asset freezes in the months that follow. With the backing of the Arab League, calls eventually grow for the Syrian president's departure. But not all UN members agree with this demand.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

Assad refuses to back down

Bashar al-Assad - who has been in power since the death of his father in 2000 - sees his reputation wane with the continuing unrest. He refuses to end decades-long emergency rule, which allows for surveillance and interrogation. Russia backs its ally, supplying weapons and vetoing UN resolutions on Syria multiple times.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

The opposition gets organized

By the end of the year, human rights groups and the UN have evidence of human rights abuses. Civilians and military deserters are slowly beginning to organize themselves to fight back against government forces, which have been targeting dissidents. More than 5,000 have died so far in the fighting. It will take another six months before the UN acknowledges that a war is taking place on Syrian soil.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

Outside intervention

In September 2012, Iran confirms that it has fighters on the ground in Syria - a fact long denied by Damascus. The presence of allied troops underscores the hesitance of the US and other Western powers to intervene in the conflict. The US, stung by failed interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, sees dialogue as the only reasonable solution.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

Fleeing the conflict

As the death toll nears 100,000, the number of refugees in neighboring countries - such as Turkey and Jordan - hits one million. That number will double by September 2013. The West and the Arab League have seen all attempts at a transitional government fail in the two years of war, watching as fighting spills over into Turkey and Lebanon. They fear Assad will stay in power by any means possible.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

No united front against Assad

Assad has long claimed he's combatting terrorists. But it's not until the second year of war that the fragmented Free Syrian Army is definitely known to include radical extremists. The group Al-Nusra Front pledges allegiance to al Qaeda, further splintering the opposition.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

From brute force to chemical warfare

In June 2013, the White House says it has evidence that Assad has been using sarin nerve gas on civilians - a report later backed by the UN. The discovery pushes US President Barack Obama and other Western leaders toward considering the use of military force. However, Russia's proposal to remove the chemical weapons ultimately wins out.

How the Syrian civil war began - and gave 'Islamic State' room to grow

Islamic State emerges

Reports of a new jihadist group calling itself the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) emerge in the final weeks of 2013. Taking land in northern Syria and Iraq, the group sparks infighting among the opposition, with some 500 dead by early 2014. The unexpected emergence of IS ultimately draws the US, France, Saudi Arabia and other nations into the war.