With Gop Victories, Policy Likely To Change

Support Increasing On Abortion Issue

Republican gains in the House of Delegates, coupled with Allen's victory, will likely mean a shift in policy on everything from crime to education and health care, experts said.

"I think policy will change," said political analyst Robert Holsworth. "I do expect a difference, but not a revolutionary one."

Based on unofficial results, Republicans picked up six seats in the House Tuesday. When the legislature convenes in January, Democrats will have 52 seats for Democrats, 47 for Republicans and one independent.

The growing Republican influence in the House will be felt most acutely on the issue of abortion, where support has been building for greater restrictions, such as parental notification for underage girls and a 24-hour waiting period for all women. The Democrat-controlled General Assembly squeaked through a parental notification measure last year, but Gov. Wilder vetoed it.

Two years ago, Republicans made large gains in the state Senate, where Democrats now hold a 22-18 majority.

Republicans have steadily gained seats in the legislature since the mid-1970s, when they held only five seats in the Senate and only 22 seats in the House.

Although Republicans will remain the minority in the House, their new clout means they need only to pick up support from a few conservative Democrats to gain majority votes. That clout could prove critical, some say, to Allen's ability to abolish parole, a centerpiece of his campaign.

"This will be a much more consultative type of legislature, which will put a premium on people who can build coalitions," Holsworth said.

On other issues, radical change appears unlikely, but many expect Republicans to make important inroads on reform plans that have been rejected for years by Democrats.

"There are a whole lot of theoretical things that could now get tried as demonstration projects," said Scott Leake, executive director of the Joint Republican Caucus.

In education, Republicans have been pushing populist themes of school choice, although they have sent mixed signals as to how far they are willing to explore such plans.

Republicans have also advocated experimenting with privatizing some functions now performed by state government. Chief among them is the prison system, where some hope to launch pilot programs for private companies to manage a state prison.

On health care, which is expected to become a key issue as President Clinton launches his reform package, Republicans are likely to take a more conservative, market-oriented approach than Clinton has proposed, Holsworth said.

Leake said the GOP is likely to make greater pushes for tort reform and setting limits on medical malpractice awards.