Thursday, January 31, 2008

Who Can Win in November

This is my analysis of this issue, mostly formulated while sitting on the Beltway going to and from work.

Republicans

Mike Huckabee: No

Reason: He has no momentum. He has no cash. He is probably running for McCain's VP. Not a bad result for him, quite frankly.

Mitt Romney: No

Reason: Mitt Romney? Be #%@%ing serious. Some have accused him of being a flip-flopper (which is an idiotic and childish term, but then look at the people who use it). That doesn't really encapsulate his "style". Romney is so transparently craven in his willingness to change his "beliefs" that he can really only be labeled with a much more stark term that is often thrown around when discussing politicians but I've never seen one that epitomized the word better: LIAR. Either of the Democrats would beat him like he stole something. (One kind note, John McCain is completely and demonstrably lying about Romney calling for a timetable to leave Iraq. I almost feel sorry for Romney when he tries to argue this point because he is right.)

John McCain: Yes, with an "if"

Reasons: McCain is beloved by the media. That is a powerful constituency to have in your corner. He appeals to independents. Independents will decide this election (as they always do, thank you very much) and he can win them, which is important because Republican turnout has thus far been depressed and they will likely be greatly out numbered by Democrats and Independents come November. Any Republican is going to need to pull a large number of Independents, which McCain can do and none of the other Republicans can. However, (the aforementioned "if") none of that will matter unless Clinton is the nominee. John McCain can't unify the various Republican factions behind him on his own. He needs Clinton to do that for him (see below).

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: Yes, with an "if" (but leaning towards No)

Reasons: She's got the money and the machine behind her. She is the "inevitable" candidate, after all. She is smart and capable - I have no doubt she is qualified. (However, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd were probably more qualified and they got their @$$es handed to them.) If she goes against Romney, she wins (but Florida decided - in an actually CONTESTED primary, mind you - that it won't be Romney; so, it doesn't really matter). If she goes against McCain, she can and may well lose. She will do what the lackluster field of Republican candidates could not do - energize and unite the Republican base. Right now they are licking their wounds and trying to figure out what went wrong and how they fell so far so fast (easy question really - GWB). If they get poked with the Clinton stick again, they'll find something to be against which will be powerful enough to possibly turn the race for McCain, if he can pull enough Independents (which he probably can).

Barack Obama: Yes (no "if")

Reasons: He's got at least as much money as Clinton and he is gaining big names in the party (Leahy, Kennedy, etc.) not to mention he has enormous grassroots support. He will bring most of the Clinton backers behind him (anti-Bush fervor for the Democrats is even stronger than anti-Clinton fervor for the Republicans) and even if he doesn't get them, polls have shown that he is bringing new people into the political process at every turn. He will bring in new voters and young voters. He is the kind of candidate who builds loyalty to a party for a generation (think Reagan). He will not continue the hyper-polarization that has marked both the Bush and Clinton years. He will not carry the baggage or negative connotations that comes with the Clinton name and style. He can win a decisive victory over McCain. He could take the vast majority of the Independent vote from McCain. Think of winning 60% of the popular vote! That is the kind of mandate that no President has had since Reagan and that is the kind of mandate that the next President will need to accomplish difficult, important, groundbreaking things (Health Care, Climate Change & Energy Independence, winning the War on Terror). We have seen what happens when a President governs with 50.1% (and really only cares about 25%). Once he gets past the primary, he'll be unstoppable.

So the winner in a rout: Barack Obama. Let's get past the primary and get it done.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Obama Response to SOTU

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Barack Obama for President!

I have been trying to stay objective and not pick sides in the presidential contests, mostly because I saw no point: Clinton was going to win the Democratic nomination and there was no way in hell any of the sorry-@$$ Republicans could possibly win the general election with the Bush legacy hanging around their neck.

Things change.

Now it seems to me that the rancor and ugliness of the Democratic contest (which can be almost totally attributed to the Clintons) may end up giving the Republican nominee a chance to win in the general. McCain has a legitimate chance, but one of the other jokers may be able to slip into the White House if the Clintons continue their destructive quest to re-attain the power of the presidency.

Make no mistake, they will do or say whatever they feel they must to get that power back. Anything. (For example, when Hillary Clinton craps on Iowa afterlosing it. Bill Clinton says that Obama's win in South Carolina doesn't matter because Jesse Jackson won it - that was the last straw for me. How insulting and demeaning.) And what will be the result? More revisiting of Bill Clinton's presidency, which began the hyper-partisanship that has so damaged our country? Oh good. Let's all sign up for that.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, will be able to:

1. Handily defeat any Republican (although McCain will still give the Republicans their best shot - let's hope they don't realize that) I think Obama could win 60% of the popular vote and bring Democrats, Independents (like me), and (gasp) even some Republicans together behind him. That kind of broad public support (which HE would have and Clinton would clearly not) would also help him get some groundbreaking legislation passed through Congress (which will be even more Democratic with him at the top of the ticket vs. Clinton at the top) early in his term. That would be a real change. That would lead to real progress.

2. He would be a point of pride for the Black community in this country. The Black community is facing several crises. Single parent families are at an all-time high, numbers of black men in prison are ridiculously high, HIV/AIDS is the number one killer of black women aged 25-34. They could use someone who would actually advocate on their behalf (which Obama has done as an inner-city organizer), not just another politician who shows up at a church to pander to them right before the election.

3. President Barack Obama's name and face on TV screens across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia will fundamentally reshape the way American is viewed abroad. They will see that, for once, America elected a more diverse leader. One who for many, will seem much more similar to them than anything they have ever seen from an American president. This will all happen at a time when much of the population of developing countries (especially Arab and African countries, not to mention Iran) are under the age of 25 and vastly more impressionable than they will be in 8 more years. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say the best thing we can do to win hearts and minds in the War on Terror would be to have Barack Obama as President. We have a singular opportunity for this right now that will pass away in a short time.

4. Unity. He can bring us together. Bring us together the way we should have been ever since 9/11 when Bush wasted our national unity to push his partisan bull$#!# and make a grab for power. The Clintons cannot unite this country. I cannot imagine anyone really believing otherwise.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

The End Is Nigh...

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Unity 08 - Kind of a Scam

Well, maybe that is going to far.

However, I got an email from "The Draft Bloomberg Committee" and it was signed by two of the co-founders of Unity 08.

So, whatever, good for them. They are working with a viable third party candidate. But it does feel to me like these guys fell out of favor with the folks in DC and are trying desperately to get back in the game the only way they can because the Dems and Repubs won't let them.

I have nothing to back that up. It's just my gut reaction. That and feeling like a sucker.

PS: One of the Whackjob crew has his own view on this email (that apparently anyone with a blog got).

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Re-Baathification

Iraq to reinstate Saddam party followers

BAGHDAD - Iraq's parliament passed a benchmark law Saturday allowing lower-ranking former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party to reclaim government jobs, the first major piece of U.S.-backed legislation it has adopted.

Traveling in Manama, Bahrain, President Bush hailed the law as "an important step toward reconciliation."

Friday, January 11, 2008

Hell Freezes Over

BAGHDAD - After weathering nearly five years of war, Baghdad residents thought they'd pretty much seen it all. But Friday morning, as muezzins were calling the faithful to prayer, the people here awoke to something certifiably new.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Unity 08 Folds Up Shop

One of our principles at the outset of this audacious project was transparency and openness. Too often in our recent political history, what you see is not what you get...

[I]t's important to reflect upon what we - together - have accomplished in shaping the current political discussion and building a sense of what is possible in this crucial election year. Two of our core ideas - the importance of a centrist, bi-partisan approach to the solving of our nation's problems and the possibility of an independent, unity ticket for the presidency have already gone from far-out to mainstream.

Barack Obama, for example, has made the theme of unity and the necessity of bridging the partisan divide an absolutely central theme of his campaign. And just last week, a group of former and present national office holders - independents, Republicans and Democrats - met in Oklahoma for the sole purpose of stating their belief that at the present perilous moment, a unity government is the only hope of solving the nation's mounting problems. When you have agreement among the likes of former RNC chairman Bill Brock and Gary Hart, you're onto something.

And, of course, waiting in the wings should the divide persist, is the potential of a serious non-partisan candidacy in the person of the Mayor of New York...

Can Unity08 take full credit for these remarkable developments? Of course not, but through this website, your active involvement, innumerable news stories, op-eds, and public appearances by friends like Sam Waterston, we certainly have helped to bring these ideas to the forefront of the current political discussion.

So in a larger sense, we have accomplished a major portion of what we set out to do. But in the specifics and logistics, we have fallen short...

At the current moment, we don't have enough members or enough money to take the next necessary step - achieving ballot access in 50 states - to reach the goal of establishing our on-line convention and nominating a Unity ticket for president and vice president this coming fall...

We were caught in a peculiar catch-22; we wanted to break the dependence on big money by getting lots of small contributions from millions of members, but needed some up-front big money to help generate the millions of members to make the small contributions. And the FEC (in effect, an arm of the parties) didn't let that happen. We have challenged this ruling in the federal courts, but are still awaiting a decision and time is running out.

And so reluctantly, especially given the volatility of the present situation, we're forced to scale back - not cease - our operations and suspend our ballot access project...

But we're not closing our doors. We believe it is important to see our case against the FEC through (both for Unity08 and any similar movement in the future) and be ready to gear up if (when) we win our case and political circumstances warrant later this spring. Unity is in the air right now, and Mayor Bloomberg seems poised to run on his own (and the fact is that two independent candidacies wouldn't work) if the parties leave the sensible center open - but all this could change in a matter of weeks.

We still believe strongly that we have the right idea, but it just might (emphasize might because who knows what can happen in the next month) not be the right time...

We'll see if they come back or not. This will make me totally re-evaluate my political plans for this year. I may accelerate choosing a candidate to back. The Unity08 idea had been giving me pause.

Well This Should Sink Him

Monday, January 07, 2008

LSU 38 - Ohio State 24

Can people stop pretending that Ohio State has any business playing for the National Championship? Ever again?

Make it the rest of the Big Ten while we're at it. What a joke.

On the other hand, congratulations to new Nebraska Head Coach Bo Pelini on his first (hopefully of many) National Championships. (The rest to come at Nebraska, of course.) The defense was not that spectacular, frankly. I'm trying not to read too much into that.

And, in general, thanks for beating the hell out of Ohio State. That never gets old.

One more thing: With two National Championships this decade, is LSU the team of the double-aughts? (For reference, Nebraska was the team of the '90s and will be the team of the '10s.)

Thursday, January 03, 2008

The Fierce Urgency of Now

I feel an odd thing after tonight's Iowa caucuses...hope. Not, "Hooray, the least bad candidate won", but actual hope that we may actually get the right guy at the right time (which, incidentally, would've been McCain in 2000).

A black man has a great shot to become President of the United States - not to mention that he's not a part of The Worstest GenerationTM.

Of course, the Clintons won't give up (although, hopefully Edwards will), and I was hoping to support a Unity08 ticket but if the Democrats put up Obama/Biden, I may have to actually get into this race.