Growth in handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue in the developed Asia–Pacific region will result in an increase in overall telecoms retail revenue from USD222 billion in 2013 to USD232 billion in 2018. This forecast report analyses the latest telecoms market developments in region, and the drivers underpinning our outlook for telecoms services.

This report provides:

- a 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for key countries- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.- Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting division, as well as external interviews.- In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).List of contents

CIO, CTO & Developer Resources

8.Executive summary 9.The rate of voice revenue decline will slow down in developed Asia–Pacific, leading to a more stable revenue mix 10.Growth in mobile handset data revenue will prevent the overall telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific from declining 11.Hong Kong's mobile market has effectively reached saturation, while fixed and mobile revenue growth will be highest in South Korea12.Mobile voice and messaging performed worse than expected in 2013 while fixed broadband and IPTV performed better 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market 14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market 15.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators 16.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison 17.Geographical coverage: South Korea will have the highest levels of LTE and fixed broadband adoption in the region by 2018 18.Market context: All six markets have almost reached saturation, yet the telecom market revenue contribution to GDP does not exceed 3% 19.Penetration: Fixed and mobile, all services 20.Mobile: Penetration by country (excluding M2M) 21.Mobile: Connections by technology generation 22.Mobile: Smartphone and LTE penetration 23.Mobile ARPU: LTE will considerably slow the rate of decline in ARPU in most countries, while South Korea's ARPU will increase 24.Fixed services: VoIP take-up is sustaining fixed voice penetration, while growth in fixed broadband connections will slow 25.Fixed: Fixed broadband penetration by country (as a percentage of& households) 26.Revenue and ARPU 27.Relative market size by service revenue 28.Revenue mix: The revenue mix of mobile and fixed services will be relatively constant during the next 5 years 29.Individual country forecasts 30.Australia: Mobile handset data revenue and M2M will be the main growth driver for mobile, and FTTH/B will drive fixed broadband 31.Australia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 32.Australia – mobile: We forecast solid growth for 4G connections, powered by LTE coverage expansion and swift launch of services 33.Australia – fixed: Operators will focus on FTTH/B and fixed voice penetration will continue to decline 34.Hong Kong: The telecoms market has largely saturated, but some growth is expected in mobile broadband, M2M and IPTV 35.Hong Kong: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 36.Hong Kong – mobile: Growth in the mobile market is expected to cease because it has already reached 200% penetration 37.Hong Kong – fixed: IPTV is the only fixed service that will grow while fibre broadband will continue to replace DSL connections 38.Japan: Handset data will drive mobile revenue growth, and fixed broadband and IPTV will drive fixed-line growth 39.Japan: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 40.Japan – mobile: Advanced networks, improved services and multiple device ownership are driving mobile penetration growth 41.Japan – fixed: Operators are driving FTTH/B connections by offering innovative bundles 42.Singapore: Population growth will continue to drive growth in the telecoms market, and handset data will be the main revenue driver 43.Singapore: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 44.Singapore – mobile: The number of 4G connections will quickly increase to account for nearly 78% of mobile connections by 2018 45.Singapore – fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2.1% during 2013–2018 while FTTH/B will maintain fixed revenue 46.South Korea: After continuously declining for many years, mobile ARPU finally increased in 2013 47.South Korea: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 48.South Korea – mobile: Mobile ARPU will begin to increase, driven by advanced networks, devices and growth in handset data revenue 49.South Korea – fixed: Innovative technology and bundling will drive the growth in fixed broadband and IPTV penetration

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