Joel Embiid Has MVP-Caliber Talent, But He's A Shaky MVP Bet

TORONTO, CANADA - MAY 7: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during a game against the Toronto Raptors during Game Five of the Eastern Conference Semifinals on May 7, 2019 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO

NBAE/Getty Images

Joel Embiid will head into the 2019-20 NBA season as one of the favorites to take home the league's Most Valuable Player award, according to Las Vegas oddsmakers.

The star Philadelphia 76ers big man is currently listed at 12-1 to win MVP, according to BetOnline.ag, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo (3-1), Stephen Curry (5-1), James Harden (7-1), Kawhi Leonard (8-1), LeBron James (9-1) and Anthony Davis (10-1). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had Embiid at 25-1 as of early July, while Caesars opened with him at 10-1 (via The Action Network), tied with Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns.

While Embiid undeniably has MVP-caliber talent, his injury history and likelihood of load management should give you pause before placing a bet on him to win this year's award.

No player in a full 82-game season has won MVP while playing fewer than 71 games since Bill Walton in 1977-78. Embiid played a career-high 64 games this past year, and he isn't likely to top that mark in 2019-20, either.

Embiid missed his first two full seasons with a pair of foot fractures, and he played only 31 games in 2016-17 before he suffered a season-ending meniscus tear. He topped the 60-game threshold in each of the past two seasons, but he couldn't avoid injuries either year.

In 2018-19, Embiid played in 54 of 58 games prior to the All-Star break and averaged 33.7 minutes per game. However, a nagging left knee injury flared up and limited him to only 10 of the remaining 24 regular-season games. It also hampered him throughout the playoffs, forcing him to miss Game 3 of Philly's first-round series against the Brooklyn Nets.

Even if Embiid avoids any further complications with his knee, the Sixers plan to limit his workload during the 2019-20 regular season to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

"When I spoke to Joel [during exit interviews] … he understood that our goal is to deliver the best Joel Embiid to the postseason," Sixers general manager Elton Brand said during a press conference in mid-July. "So whatever that takes, he's on board for that."

The Sixers' offseason overhaul was seemingly designed with that purpose in mind.

While they didn't sign Al Horford to a four-year, $109 million contract this summer strictly to be an insurance policy for Embiid, that was undoubtedly part of their motivation.

"We know that [Horford and Embiid] can play together, and we know that they can play well together," Brand said. "But the opportunity to have Al back [Embiid] up at times, especially in the playoffs, and be the 5, it's a great opportunity for us."

Whenever the Sixers decide to hold Embiid out for load-management purposes, Horford can slide in as the starting center, while seven-year veteran Kyle O'Quinn can be a plug-and-play reserve big. Those two are a major upgrade over the Sixers' backup centers this past season.

"Having these options [Horford and O'Quinn]—we did fall off a cliff once Joel was off the court, especially defensively—so having these great options now bodes well for our team success," Brand said.

During his exit interview, Embiid acknowledged that he needed to "take a better approach" when it comes to strategically resting this season.

"Most of the time, I kind of feel bad because I feel like I let everybody down by not playing or by sitting out," he said. "If … you know that guys are gonna take over or they're gonna make sure that you get the win, we have the talent to do so, yeah, I guess it's an easy decision for me. So, as long as I think we got it all covered and I feel like we have an opportunity to win games without me, I'm up to it."

That isn't to say the Sixers will keep Embiid on ice until the playoffs. He's still the two-way focal point of the team, and he'll need time to develop chemistry with Horford, Josh Richardson and the rest of his new teammates.

However, they're likely to limit the number of games he plays and the number of minutes he plays when he's active. Somewhere in the ballpark of 30 minutes per game across 65 games seems like a reasonable estimate.

This past season, Antetokounmpo won MVP while playing a total of 2,358 minutes across 72 games. In doing so, he became the first player with fewer than 2,500 minutes to win MVP in a non-lockout-shortened season since Walton in 1977-78.

Unless Embiid's top competitors for the award all get load-managed as well, he may end up on the periphery of the MVP race by virtue of playing time alone.