Donaldson: Here’s the best bet of the NFL season  a virtual lock

I doubt that anyone who’s reading this will be shocked to learn that some people — OK, lots and lots of people — place wagers on the outcome of National Football League games.

By Jim Donaldson

I doubt that anyone who’s reading this will be shocked to learn that some people — OK, lots and lots of people — place wagers on the outcome of National Football League games.

But games are hardly the only thing a fan can bet on when it comes to the NFL.

In fact, you can bet on just about anything and everything, including how many games some players will play in the upcoming 2014 season.

It is one of those so-called “prop” — for propositional — wagers that I offer for your consideration as the “best bet” of the season, the “lock of the year.”

Not that Patriots fans will consider it such.

But remember, if you’re going to make money, you have to bet with your head, not with your heart.

The way to make what looks like guaranteed money is to bet against Gronk.

Almost unbelievably, the “over/under” number on how many games the Pats’ oft-injured tight end, Rob Gronkowski, will play this season is 14-1/2.

No, that’s not a misprint.

If you take the under, and Gronk misses just two games, you win.

The wise guys in Vegas very often are spot on when it comes to such things.

But the guy who came up with that number was either a diehard Patriots fan or somebody who’d make The Ultimate Optimist, Norman Vincent Peale, look like a pessimist.

In his first four years in the league, since the Patriots drafted Gronkowski in the second round in 2010 — even though he’d sat out the entire 2009 season at the University of Arizona following back surgery — he has played all 16 games only his first two seasons.

He played in only 11 in 2012, when he broke his left forearm in mid-November. Although he was able to return for the playoffs, he broke it again in the conference semifinals against Houston. All told, he underwent four surgeries to repair the damage and clear up a persistent infection.

The last of those operations was in May of last year. The following month, Gronk underwent back surgery and it wasn’t until October that he was able to play for the Patriots.

He appeared in seven games last season before tearing ligaments in his right knee.

While he looks indestructible, Gronkowski has proven surprisingly fragile.

The good news is that, as he happily announced Monday, he will be ready to play in the season opener Sunday at Miami, even though he has not played in any of the four preseason games.

“I’m good to go,” he said.

When he’s healthy, there is no better tight end in the league.

He caught 10 touchdown passes as a rookie and was spectacular in the Pats’ Super Bowl season of 2011, when he had 90 receptions and set NFL records for receiving yards (1,327), receiving touchdowns (17), and total touchdowns (18).

He had 11 TD catches in 11 games in 2012, but last season had career lows of 39 receptions, for 4 TDs, in just seven games.

In the last 21 months, he has had surgeries on his forearm, back, and knee.

It would be nice to think he will hold up for all 16 games — or even 15 — this season.