Will recession turn out to be mild, or something darker?

Economy

Prospects that the economy will soon bounce back from recession are complicated by a lingering climate of uncertainty among consumers and businesses after the terrorist attacks.

Apprehension about the economy is understandable, given that the last downturn occurred more than a decade ago. Millions of younger workers have never experienced an economic slump and do not know what to expect.

But even the experts who get paid to forecast the twists and turns of the economy say the current recession is unlike anything they have seen before, making predicting the future even tougher.

''This is one of the most unusual and dangerous economic downturns on record,'' says Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York, and not just because of the terrorist attacks Sept. 11.

Analysts are worried because even before the attacks, America's $10 trillion economy had been weakening for a year. The slump has spread to major U.S. trading partners as well, meaning other nations will be unlikely to step in and help lead the way to recovery.

''We have got a worldwide recession on our hands,'' said Donald Straszheim, president of Straszheim Global Advisors in Santa Monica, Calif.

The more pessimistic forecasters do not believe there will be significant signs of a rebound until the second half of next year. As a result, this downturn could turn out to be one of the longest in the post-World War II period. The average recession since 1945 has lasted only 11 months.

Even more optimistic forecasters who are looking for a rebound by early spring warn that their predictions could easily be derailed -- consumer and business confidence jolted by new terrorist events, a sudden widening of the war disrupts oil supplies from the Middle East, for example.

''The economic situation at present is very fragile,'' said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. ''There are an awful lot of things that could go wrong.''

Already, squabbling between Democrats and Republicans has delayed passage of a $75 billion to $100 billion stimulus package that many economists have factored into their equation of stronger growth next year.

President Bush used his Saturday radio address to try to increase pressure on Senate Democrats to compromise. He said Congress needs to act before the holiday season ''to bring quick help to those who need it most.''

In the Democratic response, Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., blamed ''hardline Republicans'' for playing politics in order to protect billions of dollars in corporate tax breaks included in the House-passed version of the stimulus bill.

The Bush administration insists that its $75 billion stimulus package would translate into an additional 300,000 jobs next year and a half-percentage point more growth.

The extra jobs will certainly be needed. In the wake of the terrorist attacks, 415,000 Americans were thrown out of work in October alone, the biggest one-month decline in 21 years.

Economists believe the report on November unemployment, which comes out Friday, will be almost as bad, with an additional 300,000 Americans thrown out of work.

It is this rash of layoffs that most concerns economists.

''The layoffs following the terrorist attacks exacerbated what had already become an ugly situation,'' said Michael Evans, chief economist for American Economics Group.

More optimistic forecasters believe the recession is already two-thirds over. They are forecasting a recession that will be just about average in length, at 11 months or 12 months, and milder than most downturns in terms of lost output and unemployment.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, said he was forecasting that the jobless rate, currently at 5.4 percent, will top out at 6.5 percent. That would be smaller than the 7.8 percent jobless rate hit in the 1990-91 slump. ''I think we will get out of this recession by March,'' Zandi said. ''All the preconditions for a rebound are being put in place.''