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The Fix Picks the NFL: Week 12

When we tossed AccuScore into the mix several weeks back, Nando and I instantly recognized it as a worthy rival. After all, AccuScore predicts games based on 10,000 computerized simulations, while Nando and I pick on a combination of fantasy football biases, hunches, peevishness and the occasional football-related reason. But while the amazing game simulator is doing decently so far, its predictions also reveal the limits of algorithmic perception, at least relative to the understanding gained from actually watching a good or, especially, bad football team play a game. Pretty big talk from a guy who has spent most of the season under .500, admittedly, but it seems especially salient given how many of Week 12′s games pit the NFL’s elite against the NFL’s… um, other teams.

Reuters

There aren’t many better options, so Philip Rivers wants you to watch the Chargers’ game with the Colts this weekend.

There are a few games worth watching in the mix this week, most notably Atlanta and Green Bay on Sunday afternoon and San Diego and Indianapolis on Sunday night, but there’s also Pittsburgh and Buffalo, and numerous games that echo that mismatch-y pairing. Even the games between division leaders look like potential duds, although that has much to do with Kansas City and Seattle currently sitting atop their divisions, not to mention Tampa Bay’s still-confusing 7-3 record. And while most of AccuScore’s predictions make plenty of sense – 10,000 game simulations is a lot – they are limited when it comes to the things about the NFL that don’t make sense: games featuring snakebit, struggling and otherwise unpickable teams.

There’s no way that AccuScore, which not only does not have DirecTV’s NFL Sunday Ticket, but also does not have eyes, could know how deeply unpickable the Minnesota Vikings are right now. AccuScore has never seen Arizona Cardinals quarterback Derek Anderson toss a baffling pick, nor has it experienced the bizarre, voodoo-cursed zombie state of the Houston Texans. Which I guess makes it lucky, in a sense, but which also limits its capabilities a bit. And if you’re familiar with my predictive work, you know that I know something about limited capacity in this area.

Consider this one Exhibit A on the limits of AccuScore’s predictive powers. To look at the personnel on each of these teams – or even simply to look at the presence of the mighty Adrian Peterson on the Vikings and the NFL’s 27th-ranked rushing defense on the other side of the ball – there’s no reason to think that the Vikings shouldn’t win. AccuScore thinks so: Its simulations average out to a result in which Minnesota does not just cover the spread, but wins outright. Which, again, is reasonable enough, if you haven’t watched the Vikings play in the last few weeks. Brett Favre is just barely upright enough to throw backbreaking interceptions, Peterson has been weirdly underutilized and the same defense that was so excellent last year has allowed 24, 27 and 31 points in its last three games. The difference, this week, is that ultra-embattled coach Brad Childress has belatedly been put out of his memory, replaced by defensive coordinator and perennial head-coaching candidate Leslie Frazier. AccuScore may know something I don’t about Frazier’s motivational chops, and the team will surely rally around him somewhat. But as someone who has watched the Vikings recently, I’ll have to respectfully disagree with the algorithm. –DR

It’s hard not to pull for the Bills in general, marooned as they are in seemingly perpetual anonymity in a remote and perennially endangered market. But it has become notably easier to actually pick the Bills in recent weeks, as they’ve scored back-to-back wins for the first time since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. (Well, not really. They actually managed it last year.) Those wins came against the injury-hobbled Lions and heroically snakebit Bengals, granted, but Buffalo’s offense – led by longshot backups-made-good in receiver Steve Johnson, running back Fred Jackson and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who may have officially shed his “elite backup” label – had been productive even before all those yards added up to victories. All of which is good, and none of which promises to be enough to beat the Steelers, this week or anytime soon. Pittsburgh’s defense is the Pittsburgh defense, and the offense appears to be figuring things out. But if Buffalo seems even remotely for-real in this obvious reality check game, it could augur good things ahead for a franchise long in need of some good news. –DR

The Giants are wracked by injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver, swapping out the explosive but fumble-prone Ahmad Bradshaw for the enigmatic Brandon Jacobs at running back and coming off a pair of frustrating, mistake-filled losses. Whether this means they’re primed for a bounce-back against a just-good-enough Jacksonville squad or ready for a second-half swoon is hard to know, although your more fatalistic Giants fans are already making “They were never that good” noises. This less-fatalistic Giants fan doesn’t know quite what type of noise to make, although I suspect I’ll know better after this week. As division leaders go, the Jaguars don’t seem all that intimidating. With the exception of an October win over the Colts, they haven’t beaten a single winning team en route to their 6-4 record. They run the ball hard and control the clock well, but Jacksonville is also yielding 27 points and a whopping 376.8 yards per game. So I’ll go with “primed for a bounce-back,” even while my inner fatalist fan’s noises grow louder. –DR

Even fans that watched Colt McCoy quarterback the Browns over the past couple weeks to a pair of upset wins and another pair of tough near-wins against good teams—well, even they were probably puzzled over how he did it. By avoiding big mistakes and by cleanly handing the ball off to breakout back Peyton Hillis, McCoy managed to do what virtually every Cleveland quarterback since Bernie Kosar proved unable to do: make the Browns look like a serious football team. Now, in a strange narrative twist and thanks to McCoy’s high-ankle sprain, 12-year veteran Jake Delhomme will be faced with the daunting task of matching the solid performance of the undersized rookie who began the year as his third-string backup. As opponents go, the Panthers – Delhomme’s former team, and this Fixer’s pick as the NFL’s worst squad – are about as welcome an opponent as Delhomme, Cleveland or anyone else could request. It’s tough to know whether Delhomme will be able to match McCoy’s mystifying magic act, but even a little bit of it should get the job done here. –DR

On a weekend with a relative dearth of interesting games – watch out for that Monday night woof-tacular, America – this game stands out as an easy game-of-the-week pick. Even on the most stacked of weeks, though, this matchup between two of the NFC’s best teams would stand out as a must-watch. The Packers are riding a four-game winning streak that has seen them win their last two games by a combined count of 76-10, while the Falcons are owners of a four-game winning streak of their own and a spotless home record. All this mutual competence makes this game interesting, but it also makes it devilishly tough to predict: These two teams are similar enough, and well-matched enough, to confound just about any predictive formula. It’s fitting, then, that my pick comes not from anything scientific so much as my determination not to forget, again, that Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is essentially unbeatable in the Georgia Dome. How and why I forget that home record (it’s 18-1) week after week is something I’d rather not ponder. This week, though, I haven’t forgotten it. –DR

As the Fix Picks go to press, there is still no betting line on this game. Which is the oddsmakers’ prerogative, of course. But what’s AccuScore’s excuse for sitting this one out? Our algorithmic friend ran through its usual 10,000 simulations on this one, only to fearlessly predict that the game will end in a tie, 18.7 points apiece. While I’m fairly sure neither team’s score will involve numbers to the right of the decimal point, I certainly understand the temptation to avoid taking a side in this one. Both the Raiders and Dolphins have swung between competitiveness and crushability without warning, thanks to a combination of injuries – Miami may or may not have to rely on third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen again in this one – and inexperience. Last week’s messy loss to the Steelers aside, Oakland has been notably better of late, and the team’s recent draft picks are developing before fans’ eyes. So if no one else will take a side, I’ll take Oakland. –DR

Every time Seattle seems to be finding its level – and embracing its status as one of the NFL’s lousier teams – the Seahawks pull off a nice win. In the NFC West, doing this a few times per season can be enough to win the division, and indeed the 5-5 Seahawks currently lead theirs. But as division leaders go, the Chiefs will gladly face a team with 33-3, 41-7 and 34-19 losses in three of its last four games. Kansas City has struggled terribly on the road and is no one’s idea of a top-tier division leader. But the AFC West leaders know their job in this one: take care of the ball, and force turnovers. Seattle is plus-nine in the turnover department when they win, and minus-eight when they lose – another example of their maddeningly multiple personalities. I’ll pick Mr. Hyde to show up in Seattle this week, handing the Chiefs their first road win since Week 2. –DR

A host of numbers, from point differential on down, suggest that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not really a 7-3 team. But the two numbers that matter most in that calculation – that would be wins on the left, losses on the right – argue irrefutably that the Bucs are just that. While none of Tampa Bay’s wins have come against good teams this season, the fact that there are seven of them must mean something, right? Grudgingly and belatedly, I’ll admit that the answer is yes. But while those seven wins are exactly as many as the Ravens bring into this game, the two teams are inarguably unequal. Despite irksome injury issues on the defense, Baltimore remains one of the NFL’s toughest teams, and Cam Cameron’s underrated offense is averaging a cool 31.5 points per game over its last four contests. When does seven not equal seven? Around 4:15 p.m. Sunday, is my bet. –DR

The Giants found a way to somewhat contain Michael Vick last week, holding him to just one touchdown and 34 rushing yards. In fact, had they handled the ball better themselves toward the end of the game, the Eagles may not have escaped with a win. Chicago, meanwhile, dominated a depleted Dolphins team that featured a quarterback with a similar makeup to Vick. Laugh all you want, but Tyler Thigpen, while not at the skill level of Michael Vick, is a decent passer who likes to run (6 rushes for 27 yards in Week 11). And don’t discount Chicago’s ability to watch and study the entire Eagles game on a free Sunday night, since they played their game last Thursday. –NDF

The Broncos are the most frustratingly befuddling team in the NFL. Every sign pointed to a blowout at the hands of the Chiefs two weeks ago, and they put up 49 points. They probably shouldn’t have lost to San Francisco in England on Halloween. They should have beaten the Seahawks in Week 2. They’re like one of those old “Magic Eye” paintings: When the season is finished, we’ll be able to stare at it and maybe figure something out. For now, though, it just looks like someone randomly hit copy/paste on an image of roses in a Microsoft Word file. It’s confusing, and it’s a little annoying. I want to stop looking at it. –NDF

I’m not jumping ship on the Titans just yet. I’m not sure how much longer I’m going to follow them down the stairs into to the basement, but until they start mentioning a bottle of amontillado, I’m sticking with them. The Vince Young drama won’t help – texting your NFL coach an apology ranks just above texting a girl to go out on a first date and right below wishing your mom a happy birthday on her Facebook wall on the Cheese Scale – but maybe the team will rally around Rusty Smith. Tennessee has outscored its opponents by 59 points this season, and Randy Moss hasn’t even kicked in yet. –NDF

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
DR: San Diego; NDF: San Diego; AS: San Diego

The Chargers are on a three-game winning streak and will have Vincent Jackson back in the lineup this Sunday to help shore up a depleted receiving corps. This isn’t like Randy Moss joining a new team and having to learn the plays, or even Santonio Holmes sitting out the first four games of the season while still practicing with the team. Jackson knows the plays, has been practicing with the team and could make his presence felt immediately against a 6-4 Colts team that seems to have lost a little of its magic from last year’s near-perfect season. –NDF

After beating New Orleans in a shocker almost two months ago, Arizona has been in a bit of a free-fall, losing its last five games and giving fans little hope it’s ready to right the ship. Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t been able to connect with anyone the Cardinals put under center and is having his least-productive season since he entered the league in 2004, averaging a little over 69 yards per game and scoring just five times. He’s only gone over 100 yards once this year. The 49ers were looking hopeful with Troy Smith at quarterback until they were shellacked by the Buccaneers last week. Still, they have some hope. Their 3-7 record—which looks more hopeful than Arizona’s 3-7 record—has them just two games out of first place in the division. –NDF

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