Vote equation

Variable description

Table 1 shows the model variables and values for 2016. By adjusting the variable values in the green highlighted cells, you can see how the model forecast would change under different conditions.

Table 1: Overview of variables used in the National conditions and trial-heat model

Variable

Description

2016 Value

conditions

Comprised of presidential approval (Gallup) and aggregate satisfaction with personal finances (Survey of Consumers), both averaged over June, July and August of election years. Each of these components is standardized by taking their value as a percent of the highest value in the data series before averaging them.

trial

Average of the incumbent party percent of the expressed two-party vote in Gallup trial-heat polls taken in the first week of September (or earliest polls in September if there were none in the first week) of the election year. In years in which one of the nominating conventions was held in early September, the trial-heat polls are taken from the week after the last day of the convention. For 2016, the average of first-week-in-September polls listed on pollster.com is used (since Gallup has decided not to do general election trial-heat polling in 2016).