Taking Inventory: San Diego Padres

The Padres are in a fairly flexible spot this offseason, as the team entered the winter with fairly low payroll obligations for the 2018 season and a long-term balance sheet that features just one notable commitment. While nobody really expects the team to contend in the coming season, its pursuit of Eric Hosmer shows that the organization would like to begin building toward MLB competitiveness.

On the whole, there’s no real reason to think the Padres need to trade any particular player. But the organization has one fairly obvious, high-end trade candidate and it also seems reasonaby likely that at least one veteran infielder will end up hitting the road.

Chase Headley, 3B ($13MM in 2018): The Friars brought back their former star in a deal that was designed mostly to acquire righty Bryan Mitchell, who’ll compete for a rotation spot. Now, it seems likely that Headley will be dangled as a means of trimming some salary. Entering his age-34 season, Headley profiles as a solid average player who could hold down the fort for a year in the right circumstances. But his overall output with the bat has been average or worse over the past four seasons, so despite the limited contractual commitment, it seems likely the Padres will have to keep some of the salary if he ends up on the move.

Two Years of Control

Brad Hand, RP (projected $3.8MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): This is the one player who stands out as a premium veteran trade asset. With Orioles lefty Zach Britton suffering an offseason injury, and a busy market for free agent relievers, Hand stands out as a highly valuable asset. He has retired more than 11 batters per nine via strikeout in each of the past two seasons and upped his output in 2017, when he ran a 2.16 ERA over 79 1/3 innings and stepped seamlessly into the closer’s role. It’s arguable the Pads ought to cash in on Hand in the near term, rather than risking any injury or performance decline, though we haven’t heard much chatter surrounding him so far this winter.

Carter Capps, RP (projected $1.3MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): It was an open question whether the Padres would tender Capps a contract at all following his tepid return from Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old managed just seven strikeouts and allowed nine earned runs in his 12 1/3 innings in 2017, while showing a whopping 5+ mph drop in his average fastball velocity and carrying only a 7.8% whiff rate. But the Padres evidently feel that Capps can still build himself back into being a quality reliever, and it’s certainly worth bearing in mind just how dominant he had become before the elbow injury. It seems unlikely he’ll be moved, but it’s certainly possible a roster need could push him out or that another organization may put a slightly higher value on his upside.

Clayton Richard, SP/RP ($6MM through 2019): The southpaw just inked an extension at the tail end of the 2017 campaign, so it’s quite unlikely the Pads would turn around and deal him before the start of the coming season. Instead, the 34-year-old is likely to hold down a rotation spot and perhaps eventually slide into a swingman role as situations dictate.

Longer-Term Assets

Yangervis Solarte, INF ($5.5MM through 2018, including buyout of 2019-20 club options): If the Friars don’t trade Headley, it may be because they find a better deal that involves Solarte. A solid switch-hitting option who can handle third base, second base, and even a bit of time at short, Solarte would fit on a lot of rosters around the game. The flexibility in his contract boosts his value, though surely other organizations won’t be offering up top talent for a player who is coming off of a personal-worst .255/.314/.416 season at the plate.

Wil Myers, 1B ($78.5MM through 2022, including buyout of club option for 2023): There’s no indication that the Padres have interest in shopping Myers, who had a less-than-inspiring first season under his new contract. Rather, it seems the club is weighing a move for free agent Eric Hosmer, which would bump Myers into a corner outfield spot. But Myers does carry the team’s only large, long-term contract, so he certainly merits mention.

Cory Spangenberg, UTIL (projected $2.0MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): In his most extensive MLB action, a 486 plate appearance run in 2017, Spangenberg turned in a .264/.322/.401 batting line with 13 home runs and 11 steals. That’s a handy batting line for a player who rated as an outstanding overall baserunner and can play just about anywhere on the field. Then again, the output was still below the league average and there are limits to Spangenberg’s defensive function; he graded poorly at third last year and isn’t really an option at short or in center. All told, though, he’s a useful asset who’d draw interest if dangled.

Kirby Yates, RP (projected $1.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): Though he’ll turn 31 before the start of the 2018 season and has not really thrived in prior attempts at the majors, Yates is an interesting player after a strong 2017 season. Home runs marred his balance sheet in the end, but it’s hard to ignore his 14.0 K/9 strikeout rate and robust 17.3% swinging-strike rate. Odds are the Padres will keep Yates and hope he can produce the results to match those promising peripherals, but his name could also come up in trade talks.

Matt Szczur, OF (projected $800K arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2021): It’s hard to imagine teams lining up for a player who seemingly profiles at best as a solid, right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder. But Szczur did produce at a roughly league-average rate over 237 plate appearances in 2017, most of which came after he moved to the Friars from the Cubs in the middle of the season. Most impressively, Szczur maintained a 14.3% walk rate over the season. He’s also still affordable as a Super Two.

Austin Hedges, C (pre-arb): In all likelihood, the 25-year-old Hedges is going to continue to take the bulk of the time behind the dish for the Padres in 2018 and beyond. But there’s some uncertainty in his outlook after a marginal .214/.262/.398 output with the bat in 2017, even if he did swat 18 long balls. It’s important to bear in mind that Hedges is considered a high-quality defender; indeed, he was one of the game’s highest-rated pitch framers in his first full season as a big leaguer. There may not be a ton of offensive upside, but the Padres have good reason to continue to allow Hedges to develop as a hitter while he gives a boost to the organization’s pitching staff.

Of course, the Padres have a variety of other younger players around who could conceivably also be traded. To take a few examples, it isn’t impossible to imagine deals involving outfielder Hunter Renfroe, starter Luis Perdomo, or reliever Phil Maton. But those and others don’t seem particularly likely to be targeted by contending organizations weighing win-now moves, so we needn’t consider them in detail. We’re also going to go ahead and assume that the team intends to utilize the just-acquired Freddy Galvisat shortstop, so there’s no real cause to weigh his trade candidacy.

That’s a pretty sorry lineup consisting of mainly bench players and young kids. It’s pretty amazing that Andy Green got as much out of them as he did. I’m looking forward to Baseball America’s new prospect rankings. I imagine Tatis Jr will be a top 10 player and Gore a top 20, while another 4-5 will be in the top 100. Id like to to trade Brad Hand for a pure SS(Gordon?), as I feel Tatis will be more of a third baseman once he fills out. Personally I’m all for signing Hosmer and trading for Yelich. Myers seems like he doesn’t have the mental fortitude to be a star, and I imagine we’d try and deal him at the deadline or next year when his contract balloons if we signed Hosmer and he builds his value. Still untapped potential in a young, but goody player. The depth of our minor leagues is off the charts. Very impressed with Preller’s scouting. He has made some foolish trades, but I think upper management had more to do w that than anything. Cheers to 2019!

Myers is a very tradeable player. 5 WAR over past 2 seasons, .254 BA, 58 HR, 48 SB, still only 27 years old. Even last year was good at 2.1 bWAR, 110 OPS+, 30 HR, 20 SB, 1 DRS, only Hosmer was better at scoops and errant throws at 1B.

If you wonder why I include scoops and errant throws at 1B, Myers had 1375 chances last season and only had 142 chances on balls hit to 1B. The rest were throws to 1B. Myers turned 27 balls in the dirt into outs and 34 errant throws in the air into outs. Only Hosmer was better. Turning throws to 1B into outs is equally as important on defense as balls in play, but it is not included in DRS, UZR or dWAR. Because of that skill, Myers led 1B in PO.

Myers led MLB in double plays. DP started is another stat not included in dWAR & UZR and Myers was 2nd in the NL in that stat.

You’re forgetting the part where he is owed $78.5m over the next 5 years and only ranked 19th among 24 qualifying 1st basemen in OPS this past season.
Oh and downvoting other people’s comments does not help your argument.

You’re forgetting the part where he is owed $78.5m over the next 5 seasons and only ranked 19th among 24 qualifying 1st basemen in OPS this past season.
Oh and downvoting other people’s comments does not help your argument.

I agree with you regarding Myers. He has all the tools to be an above average run producer, but his obvious struggle with the mental side of the game gets the best of him. His production has to trend upward from wire to wire in ‘18 before SD could hope to get a significant return for him next winter or the ‘19 trade deadline.

Had no problem with Capps before he started all that hop skip stuff when he was with Seattle. It’s not like he wasn’t running it up 96-99 then and add in the hard biting curve? He just needed more time to get polished as a professional player period.

That delivery hope didn’t mess him up for good with the TJ and he goes back now to how it began.

Probably $140 million. I would be surprised if they offered him anything over that. If it was me managing I wouldn’t offer him more than $126 million. The only other team pursuing him is the Royals and I doubt they would get involved in a bid war to get him. He doesn’t really have many options on the table and I highly doubt he would take a year contract with x team to build up his market for the following FA when there’s already a team offering him a seven year deal. Ian Desmond did it though, so it can be possible he goes for a year contract, but look how that ended.

Hosmers 7 year deal will resemble Werth’s. It’s a culture change signing, only problem is that when Werth signed with WAS they had Harper and Stras in the organization already. Gore and Tatis Jr. isn’t the same talent pool but I think Hosmer will move the needle in the right direction for the Pads.

Would a Japanese speaking guy be a good leader in the clubhouse? I heard that part of the reason the Padres were considering Hosmer was because of his Cuban heritage and ability to speak Spanish fluently.

I guess the whole clubhouse presence part is overblown to me. You don’t give a guy 100 million because his old teammates liked him and want him to get paid in free agency. Give me the guy that is more likely to perform instead.

My wish list for what the Padres should do in the rest of the offseason:

Sign Hosmer. New face of the franchise, move Myers to LF hopefully he relaxes and gets back to 15-16′ production levels.

Unclog 2B/3B logjam- I’d like to see a little more of Villanueva to start the season, he looked really good in the small sample size the last few games.

Unclog LF jam, Dickerson, Pirela, Jankowski, Cordero.

Sign Trevor Rosenthal to a deal similar to Michael Pineda’s and Drew Smyly’s. 2 year/ 8 million with the idea that you are signing him for when he will be healthy in 19′. If not Rosenthal possibly Hochevar to a similar deal.

Get a backup for Hedges that can play other positions when not catching i.e. Blake Swihart. Rebuilding teams need all 25 roster spots utilized, to see what you have. Hard to waste one on just a backup catcher only. Maybe a pillow contract for Lucroy who could play C/1B for a year to rebuild his value. Myers plays left when Lucroy is at first.

Competition for jobs is generally good. If one of those players actually steps up then there won’t really be a logjam at any of those positions. Spring training may separate the contenders from pretenders in position battles.

To see more of Villanueva, that would mean trading Headley. If Headley is still there come opening day, he is your starter and Villanueva doesn’t play middle infield. He could play at 1B though.

That would still leave you with Solarte, Spangenberg, and Asuaje as 2B and 3B options until Urias is ready to come up and start at 2B.

Tillman was terrible for the O’s last season. His FB velocity was down 2 mph and his location was way off more often than it was on. From watching him, it seemed that he was injured. I would stay away from him and I have been glad the O’s have stayed away. I know it would cost a draft pick, but why not a guy like Lynn or Cobb? 4 or 5 year deal around $15-16 million AAV. Especially if you are signing Hosmer.

As for a backup catcher, would a bat only guy like Avila make sense for the Padres? He is strictly a backup and playing 1B would be ok for him. Lucroy is not going to want to be a backup, because he would not be able to rebuild his value that way.

Actually, other than last year, Avila has been a defense first catcher. Throw out the unreliable “stat” of pitch framing. Avila is solid at throwing out base runners. He’s exceptional at blocking balls in the dirt, and he calls a good game. The only thing you can rely on from him offensively is that he will take a lot of pitches. Oh, and clog the bases.

Myers probably can’t play the outfield and stay healthy, unfortunately. That’s a byproduct, of course, of his bad defense. I’m not sure how playing a more difficult defensive position would allow him to “relax.”

Also, a backup catcher is never going to be used at another position, unless a team has three catchers. Too much risk involved if the starting catcher has to leave the game, especially with a 4-man bench. And Lucroy is signing a huge contract; he’s not going to San Diego to be a backup on a rebuilding team.

I think Hochevar is going to retire; not sure the Padres need to sign a reliever – they seem to be able to manufacture them just fine.

if the management gives 7 year/$140m deal to Hosmer, I’d freak out.
There is no reason the team should spend that much money on a first baseman with career
average OPS of below .800.

What Preller should do, is sign FA pitchers who can log in solid 180 innings for the next few years, until pitching prospects come up to majors.
Why not sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb at four year deal around $60-70m?

Then, they should trade away Solarte, Spangenberg, and Headley and get some relief pitchers back.

We don’t need declining, injury prone pitchers for that much just to log innings. It’s either we rebuild totally and wait 3 more years, or Sign Yelich and Hosmer and look to start competing next year. we won 71 games last year, w their younger guys a year older and those 2 guys, we could get to .500

For next year of course it is. What are you talking about?! You dont go from last to first in one year clown. This isn’t football or basketball. You make STRIDES. then the next year we try and win 90 games and so on. Does this now make sense to you???

You’re the clown if you think making a bunch of moves to “get to .500” is a good idea. Ask the Cubs and Astros about going from worst to first in one year. If we add anyone who will help us in 2018, it will be someone who is young enough and under contract long enough to contribute for the long haul.

Prior to the 2015 season, the Cubs signed Lester, Motte, Montero, Ross, and Fowler and resigned Hammel and Russell who they had traded in 2014.

So to win, they made huge moves.

The Padres could do the same. Sign Hosmer. Sign Cobb or Lynn. Sign Avila as a backup catcher. Trade Renfroe, Spangenberg, Headley, Jankowski, Nix, and Paddack or another of the plethora of 45-50 rated pitchers in your farm like Allen, Thompson or Lawson to the Marlins for Yelich, Prado, Zeigler, and Tazawa. Other than Tazawa, all those guys are upgrades for the Padres. That fills the Marlins 2 biggest needs, lowering payroll and filling an empty OF. Move Myers to RF.

Yelich, Margot, Myers is a strong OF. Prado, Galvis, Solarte, Hosmer, Hedges is a very good infield. A bench of Villanueva, Asuaje, Avila, Pirela, and whoever else is a good one. Cobb/Lynn, Richard, Lamet, Perdomo and Strahm, Mitchell, or Rea is a decent rotation. Any bullpen with Hand at the top has got to be good. Even with all of those additions, your payroll is probably still only about $100 million. There has got to be more in the coffers if they need another starter. That is a wild card team. It isn’t enough to beat the Dodgers, but its good enough to compete for the wild card.

All your best prospects, Tatis, Urias, Gore, Quantrill, Baez, Morejon, Espinoza, etc… are still with the team.

Lol the 2018 Padres are not the 2015 Cubs Einstein. They got at least a year, maybe two years to go before that. 2018 is still a rebuilding year. Smart thing to do is let Renfroe, Hedges et al show what they got and decide if they are keepers or not.

Hosmer and Yelich would make sense at the right price. Not because we wanna get to .500 but because they would be controlled and good long enough to contribute to the next good Padres team. But like, “trying to get to .500” is not an excuse for trading for Freddy Galvis for example because he will just have to be replaced a year from now.

Lance Lynn had a pretty good year, but I get your point.
My point was that if the management wants to spend money, they should do it on some pitchers.
I don’t think signing Yelich and Hosmer will make this team that much better anyway, since the team doesn’t have any pitching.

I think people are starting to get antsy with this rebuild and so they would be all for making moves like signing Hosmer and trading for Yelich. But this is where Ryan has a point. The plan is to contend for the long haul, not put all the eggs into a few baskets in an attempt to get to .500 by next year.

I think what really needs to happen is to just keep playing the waiting game. By that I mean wait for the prospects to finally make it through the minors and don’t make any knee-jerk moves for the near term. Sure, trade guys like Hand and eventually Solarte, but don’t to signing a guy like Hosmer to an overpriced contract.

It would be better to wait until next offseason when they can sign a guy like Keuchel to anchor the rotation starting in 2019, which by this time many of the prospects will be ready. That will be their bold move, showing that they’re ready to start contending. It won’t be just about getting to .500, but exceeding .500 and making strong pushes into the playoffs for years to come.

The Padres had Chacin and Cahill who both pitched well for them last season. If they signed Hosmer and traded for Yelich, they would still need to sign at least one pitcher like Cobb or Lynn, who are both 30 years old, in order to replace the production they got from Chacin and Cahill.

It’s because upper management has no chill and had Preller try to build by raiding the farm system 3 years ago. We’ve built the farm back up but it takes time and we were spending ludicrous amounts on players who aren’t even on the team.

Previous owners did not spend much to put together a competitive team and constantly put the team in rebuilding processes, selling off franchise players, while raking in millions from TV deals and revenue sharing. I believe the city also funded more than half of Petco Park’s construction.
Local media, led by guys like Bill Center, advocated these owners and the management, telling fans that this was what small market teams do.
Now, fans go to games just for the experience. Petco Park is new, has good beers and is in downtown SD with good weather.
There is no expectation whatsoever.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of truth to what you’re saying about how people just go to the park for the “experience” without really caring about the product on the field.

It saddens me when I go to a game and see a bunch of hipsters taking pictures of their IPAs to put on social media and not caring at all about what’s happening on the field. Some of them put in a little effort and wear some old Jake Peavy giveaway shirt that they got at a game 10 years ago, but like you said, nobody expects anything.

Who wants to play for Padres? If Hosmer wants to win he’ll sign for less for a contender, which is what i see him doing or else i think he’d of signed with SD already. Preller ought trade Tatis for Big Dame James & Tim Anderson Hahn’s on board with that