Fifty state update

Back in May, I wrote about the Democrats’ Fifty State Strategy on the occasion of their tying the record with 419 filings for Congressional seats. Yesterday, the same blogger who reported that event gave us the final tally: There are 425 Democratic candidates running for Congress, which not only shatters the old mark (set in 1994, for those of you who like foreshadowing) but also far outpaces the Republicans’ total of 390. I find that very satisfying, both from a philosophical viewpoint as well as a practical one. At the very least, such a disparity in the number of candidates means the Democrats should be decently positioned to play more offense than defense, which in this environment is a good thing.

When U.S. Rep. Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) sold 165 acres to the city of Monrovia in 2002, he made a profit of more than $10 million, according to a financial disclosure form he filed in Congress. Ordinarily, he would have had to pay state and federal taxes of up to 31% on that profit.

Instead, Miller told the Internal Revenue Service and the state that Monrovia had forced him to sell the property under threat of eminent domain. That allowed him to shelter the profits from capital gains taxes for more than two years before he had to reinvest the money.

But there is a problem with Miller’s claim: Monrovia officials say that Miller sold the land willingly and that they didn’t threaten to force him to sell.

Miller, whose 42nd Congressional District includes chunks of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties, claimed the same exemption in two subsequent Fontana property transactions, allowing him to continue sheltering his profits from the Monrovia sale. And in each of those cases, the purchasers say eminent domain, which allows a government agency to force a sale if it’s in the public interest, was neither used nor threatened.

You guessed it – Miller’s CD42 is one of the ten districts where no Democrat filed. I don’t know what the partisan makeup of this district is, but I do know that you can’t make a campaign issue out of a story like this if you don’t have a campaign. Better luck next time, I guess.

Another way of looking at this is that the Democrats need to win 51.3% of their races to become the majority party, while Republicans need to capture 55.9% of theirs. No matter how you slice it, they’ve got more wiggle room.

And as Election Day draws nearer and there’s more aggregate polling data to sample, we can begin to get a picture of how things might shake out in November. Chris Bowers combines the various national polls with the actual results of each parties’ Congressional races from 1998 through 2004 and finds that even under worst-case assumptions about third-parties and how undecideds break, the Dems are in a position right now to outdo the Republicans’ performance from 1994. Yes, the districts may be better drawn for incumbent protection these days, but at some point even strong walls crumble.

All the usual caveats about how far off the election is and how unpredictable events can be apply – Paul Burka thinks the London airplane bombing scheme that was foiled will give the Republicans a bounce, though the first polls subsequent to that don’t show it – but only to a point. All of the main factors – money, enthusiasm, candidate quality, polling – have been in the Dems’ favor and trending in their direction for some time now. I think it’s increasingly unlikely that any one single event will change this dynamic, and as time slips away I think the probability of a parlay of events that work against the Dems shrinks away. If the Dems would wake up and take the opportunity that’s been handed to them in CD23 a bit more seriously, I’d feel like I was running out of things to worry over. I try not to get too confident, but it’s harder to do that every day.

UPDATE: As noted in the comments, the Dems have lost a candidate in Ohio. Buckeye State Blog goes over the possible replacements – apparently, there’s still time by that state’s laws to find one there.

2 Responses

It looks like today, we lost one candidate in Ohio, unfortunately. Stephanie Studebaker withdrew her name from the race in the 3rd district. I wonder if the rules in Ohio allow the Dems to field another candidate.

I am excited about the 50 state strategy. I think for too long the Democrats have written off certain portions of the country and have failed to make the effort to attract people in those areas and to address their concerns. I believe this is a mistake. In every county of this country there are good people who are concerned about the direction of our nation and who are prepared to respond to an honest appeal from an honorable and well-qualified candidate. If Howard Dean does nothing else as the leader of the party, he will have earned the gratitude of all by promoting this strategy and, I believe, he will have laid the groundwork for future success.