According to the latest Duke CFO Global Business Outlook Survey, released Wednesday, 67% of those surveyed predicted the U.S. economy would be in recession by the third quarter of 2020, and 84% believe a recession will have begun by the first quarter of 2021. The survey generated responses from more than 1,500 chief financial officers, including 469 from North America, and additionally showed that thirty-eight percent of respondents predicted a recession by the first quarter of next year.

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We are in a credit bubble the likes of which the world have never seen. One wrong move, one small ripple could make a massive tsunami that could quickly spiral out of control impoverishing millions, if not billions around the globe. Consider beginning to prepare now for what so many people already know is inevitable.

Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far.

reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.

Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far.

reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.

People with more than two brain cells realize that these things aren’t sustainable:

-FED cuts rates to zero for the next decade -announces QE 1,2 and 3-bail out the banks-bail out the auto’s -trillions in stimulus

11 years later... The US and the world’s debt has doubled. Things are heading back to where they were, but now the FED has only 2% of rates to cut. History tells us they 5-6% of rate cuts to combat a recession. Explain to me how they will stop this one?

I don't remember anyone here saying that there wouldn't be another recession. But it isn't going to be tomorrow and your prediction of it being in the first quarter of 2019 already didn't work. Year end....maybe, 2020 sometime...even bigger odds. Guaranteed.....Not.

But don't let that stop you from keeping predicting the wheels are going to fall off tomorrow!

Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far.

reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.

People with more than two brain cells realize that these things aren’t sustainable:

Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far.

reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.

People with more than two brain cells realize that these things aren’t sustainable:

Medicaid, Medicaid and SS will be exploding as the Baby Boomers keep retiring in record numbers. We’ll be collecting way less taxes with that and when the recession takes hold. The deficits will explode.

Armageddon wrote:Medicaid, Medicaid and SS will be exploding as the Baby Boomers keep retiring in record numbers. We’ll be collecting way less taxes with that and when the recession takes hold. The deficits will explode.

And that's in a decade or two, when those chickens will come home to roost (or the can will be further kicked down the road somehow). IF something else doesn't change things, of course. (Which it generally does, since we can't see the future).

So how in the world does that valid observation justify your claims that:

1). The financial world was about to blow up in 1Q'2019, which it didn't?

2). The financial world is about to blow up in 2020, 2021, etc. as now you seem to be hedging on what your prediction even is.

...

There's a BIG difference between saying we can't pile up debt indefinitely (without enough economic growth to support it), and saying next week, month, year, etc. IS DEFINITELY THE TIME the music will stop.

Especially when the fast crash doomers have been so ABLY DEMONSTRATING this for the four decades I've been paying attention. Rockdoc is absolutely right re the credibility of the broken clock approach.

Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.

Armageddon wrote:Medicaid, Medicaid and SS will be exploding as the Baby Boomers keep retiring in record numbers. We’ll be collecting way less taxes with that and when the recession takes hold. The deficits will explode.

And that's in a decade or two, when those chickens will come home to roost (or the can will be further kicked down the road somehow). IF something else doesn't change things, of course. (Which it generally does, since we can't see the future).

So how in the world does that valid observation justify your claims that:

1). The financial world was about to blow up in 1Q'2019, which it didn't?

2). The financial world is about to blow up in 2020, 2021, etc. as now you seem to be hedging on what your prediction even is.

...

There's a BIG difference between saying we can't pile up debt indefinitely (without enough economic growth to support it), and saying next week, month, year, etc. IS DEFINITELY THE TIME the music will stop.

Especially when the fast crash doomers have been so ABLY DEMONSTRATING this for the four decades I've been paying attention. Rockdoc is absolutely right re the credibility of the broken clock approach.

Decade or two? Experts said the entire global economy nearly crashed in 2008. They used measures never seen before to halt it. What inventive measures do they have this time? You are severely underestimating what’s happening.

There must be a reason CB’s and governments are stockpiling gold like never seen before. What do they know? What are they preparing for?

They are preparing for the point where the world's cash flow becomes inadequate to cover the cost of servicing the world's debt. With $253 trillion in debt, a cash flow of $57 trillion, and the world now at Peak Oil that should be real soon. At which point their debt backed fiat turns into trash can liner, and the present $ becomes worth about 4¢. Then again maybe they are grabbing all the gold they can find because having a lot of shining stuff piled up around the office is the new status symbol for global central bankers?

We might be finding out by the time Santa again arrives. Hope he stuffs his sleigh with a lot of shinny gold bars; they would be better than the ugly sweater that he gave me last year.

The US is not going to renew waivers on Iranian sanctions, so there goes another 1 to 1.5 mb/d of production. The economy is so incredibly strong that the price of crude shot up about $1.50 a barrel. At first I thought that someone had moved the decimal point in the wrong direction, but on rechecking that wasn't it. It seems that no one thinks that even oil is very valuable anymore, and they are correct. But that gets into stuff like energy which is apparently way beyond the comprehension of Wall Street. Maybe they will get a better handle on it over the next few weeks when the bottom starts falling out of this market. "Sell in May and go away", will be taking on a new meaning in 2019. Here after it will be known as they sold in May, and never came back!

shortonoil wrote:The US is not going to renew waivers on Iranian sanctions, so there goes another 1 to 1.5 mb/d of production. The economy is so incredibly strong that the price of crude shot up about $1.50 a barrel. At first I thought that someone had moved the decimal point in the wrong direction, but on rechecking that wasn't it. It seems that no one thinks that even oil is very valuable anymore, and they are correct. But that gets into stuff like energy which is apparently way beyond the comprehension of Wall Street. Maybe they will get a better handle on it over the next few weeks when the bottom starts falling out of this market. "Sell in May and go away", will be taking on a new meaning in 2019. Here after it will be known as they sold in May, and never came back!

The CB's Jedi mind tricks are getting a little rusty.

We’ll see how long this economy can handle these gas prices. This is 2007 all over again but with double the debt and low interest rates.

Gas prices are not high and $1.50 increase in crude oil per barrel doesn't translate into much at the pump. The national average price of gasoline right now is $2.84 gallon. Not high at all. But keep on dooming guys. Your desperation to find a doom event is quite amusing.