Tag Archives: Carson City

The biggest question in Carson City wasn’t whether it was going to rain or snow or anything like that. There was no chance of rain. The real question was whether a system moving ashore along the west coast would bring about warming, or if it would produce clouds that would keep temperatures in check. Well, the title of the post kind of gave things away, didn’t it? There was a warm up of 3 degrees from Sunday to Monday, so that counts! The Weather Service and Weatherbug ended up with the top forecast, thanks to the modest warm up they had in Nevada’s capital.
Actuals: Sunday – High 57, Low 28
Monday – High 60, Low 33

Westward ho! We’re off on a 3 day adventure, covering 1724 miles at a pace of nearly 69mph. Days one and two will be a bit shorter, concluding after 551 miles. High pressure is in place right now. Will that change?

DAY ONE (Sunday)
The Upper Midwest is cold and brisk, wallowing in the back side of a strong low now shifted into Canada. The upper level trough still demarcates the back end of cold weather, and will run through western Iowa through most of the day tomorrow. Warmer weather is on its way, and there will be the beginnings of a temperature recovery as we cross into Nebraska. We will make it west for a while, before settling in at Norwalk, just to the east of Kearney. Temperatures will be much better on Monday.

DAY TWO (Monday)
It’s going to be quieter as we head westbound on I-80 on Monday. Ridging will be in place, and the trough that had caused problems the day before with some brisk north winds will be long gone. Calm day, driving through the remainder of the Plains… we should make good time. The day will end Point of Rocks, Wyoming. Only one more day to slug our way through.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Western Wyoming, northern Utah and most of Nevada will be problem free on Tuesday. A sharp strong trough organizing in the Pacific Northwest will struggle to bring precipitation across the Sierras. This will save us throughout most of the final third of our drive on Tuesday, but there will eventually be some spillover. The threat for rain wiil begin to threaten about an hour after we turn off of I-80, and less than an hour before we arrive in Carson City. Fortunately, at this time of arrival, we should expect some light rain, and not snow. Something to be thankful for this week, I guess.

We are headed out west for this evening’s forecast. Will we be able to see the beginning of a major change?

At 1115PM, PT, Carson City was reporting a temperature of 32 degrees with clear skies. High pressure is being felt aloft and at the surface, though the ridging aloft was undercut by a jet streak along the Mexican Border. This streak’s position is preventing warm air from filtering into the western US, and the clear skies mean any warmth in the area is radiating out, which is leading to the freezing temperatures.
The pattern over the western US is going to remain relatively unchanged, though it will be quite turbulent aloft. A weak wave presently over the eastern PAcific will sweep through the area on Monday afternoon, bringing some mid and high lever clouds, to the point that the sun may be obscured. This will also prevent the temperatures from falling off too dramatically on Monday night into Tuesday morning. More significant weather is expected to arrive on Tuesday, after the forecast period has passed.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 20
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 30

I’m not so sure that temperatures are going to warm all that much on Monday. It’s interesting to see the difference in opinion across the board, some expecting temperatures to cool, some expecting warming. I am just splitting the difference. Here is the very empty satellite for the entire west. You can see something brewing in the Pacific.

As per usual in the Western US during the summer, it gets hot. Sometimes monsoon thunderstorms will perk up as well, but as mentioned in the Carson City forecast, an upper-level feature was keeping any of that well off to the east. Luckily, the temperatures came in a couple degrees cooler than anticipated, which I’m sure nobody will complain about. Accuweather took down the top spot in this forecast.

Out west we go to begin our week. The trip is to the foothills of the Sierras and the capital of Nevada. What kind of weather can we expect out there?

At 1055PM, MT, Carson City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. Dew points in the mid 30s reflected a dry environment at the western end of the Great Basin. A very weak upper level trough was found over the eastern Great Basin, leading to some surface cylcogenesis. This will lead to high elevation convection in the Rockies, Wasatch and Colorado Plateau, but there isn’t enough moisture to fold back to Carson City.
Over the Sirerras, a thermal ridge will set up, forcing the surface reflection of the upper feature even further to the east. Not only will the capital area remain dry, but the eastern part of the state will begin to stabilize as well.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny, High 91, Low 47

That Forecast.io was a real surprise. Everyone else, save for Accuweather was exceeding model guidance with they forecast, so this is an odd choice to go so cool. WE can see some storms flaring up over the eastern part of Nevada right now.

Carson City sits a few hundred feet higher than Reno, and as a result, are often a cool spot in the State of Nevada. They were fairly cool in the state capital on Monday, but particularly on Tuesday as some cooler weather rushed into the Great Basin thanks to a system rolling through the Pacific Northwest. Carson City’s mountainous location led to cooler temperatures, but also dry conditions,despite the energy associated with the system thanks to the Capital’s position in the rain shadow. The National Weather Service handled the difficult forecast well, proving that practice makes perfect.
Actuals: Monday – High 68, Low 44
Tuesday – High 60, Low 46

Oh baby, is this a long road trip. We’re going to take nearly 6 full days to cover the nearly 3000 miles between the endpoints of this trip. Our average speed will be 65.75mph, which means days 1-5 will be through after 526 miles with a shorter day to finish things off. Lots of driving. We’d better depart.

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DAY ONE (Tuesday)
I usually opt for the first route option Mapquest recommends, but for some reason, the route proffered was a full hour longer than the 2nd option today. The first route heads east on I-80, but instead, we will head southeast towards Las Vegas. A swirling area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will produce showers across the center of the state, mostly triggered by the higher terrain found in the middle of the state. There could be a scattered showers in Tonopah as we head towards Vegas, but the bulk of the trip will be at a low enough elevation that we won’t have to worry about any of those showers or thunderstorms, and the system will be receding from northern Nevada anyways. The drive will end in Golden Valley, Arizona, just outside of Kingman. It will be warm in southern Nevada and northwest Arizona, but definitely palatable for almost anyone.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A developing disturbance in south Texas will be lifting north over the next several days. We will encounter the back end of the system almost immediately after we hit the New Mexico border. There will be scattered thunderstorms throughout the western Arizona mountains, though the heaviest will be reserved for the terrain just west of Albuquerque. As we drive through western New Mexico, the low will be lifting north, and the available moisture will be greatly reduced for our route. By the time we his Albuquerque, expect mostly rain showers, without the threat for thunder. The day will end on the east side of Moriarty, which is east of Albuquerque.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The system will be lifting north northeast towards the Upper Midwest, and it will dry up nicely in Moriarty overnight. We will drive through Amarillo and Wichita Falls in mostly cloudy but dry conditions. A stalled cold front will bring showers to the Metroplex, but we will stop in Alvord, just before we get to the northwestern part of the region. Pretty good timing t head through this part of the country.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
As the low erodes in the Great Lakes, the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open on Friday. There won’t be anything organized, but particularly after we cross into Louisiana west of Shreveport, we may be subject to scattered showers and thunderstorms. From Alexandria southwestward, some of those storms are prone to be soaking and torrential, but they won’t be pervasive, and they won’t move much. This means that we won’t constantly be getting soaked, and we may well see the sun in-between rain showers. Of course, in the midst of the rainfall, there could be flash flooding. Win some, lose some. WE will stop for the night in Sunset, Louisiana, which is just north of Lafayette.

DAY FIVE (Saturday)
This is definitely going to be daytime convection rich. This is still 5 days out, but it appears that the best chance for heavy thunderstorms will be from Biloxi to Pensacola, but that makes sense, because the heaviest convection during the sea breeze season is usually in the afternoon. WE will be between Biloxi and Pensacola during the afternoon. As we start to veer away from the coast, we will still be subject to a chance for thunderstorms, but they won’t be as persistent, though since they will take more energy to trigger, they may be heavier. Before we begin our final southward leg, we will stop for the night in Welborn, Florida, west of Live Oak, east of Lake City.

DAY SIX (Sunday)
This is it! Just one last trip south. There should only be a few pop up thunderstorms, starting around Cape Coral, through most of the convection will be inland of our route. There will be a chance that we could get grazed by one of these cells for the rest of the drive on into Naples. A little bit different than Carson City, is Naples.

We’re headed out west this evening for a late night forecast. What’s kickin’ in the Great Basin?

At 935PM, PT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 59 degrees. A narrow ridge had found itself entrenched over the Great Basin, leading to clear skies regionwide.
An upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will attempt to drive some moisture and cold air south towards Nevada, but it will be to no avail. Carson City’s position in the foothills of the Sierras will be advantageous to sun seekers, as northwesterly flow will help to scour the environment around town. Some mid to high clouds will help to suppress temperatures a bit
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 44
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 44

FIO, Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day and breezy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 67, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning and breezy until afternoon. High 61, Low 39

A look at the satellite shows a pretty quiet environment. We’ll see what happens with the temperatures., which everyone went over guidance on in their forecasts.

When I was first attempting to verify, I looked at the Reno numbers rather than Carson City. A couple outlets, namely ourselves and WeatherNation, ended up with only 1 degree of error. We nailed a Reno forecast with our Carson City forecast! Well, then we looked at the numbers for Carson City. Oops. The Nevada capital has an elevation 300 feet higher than Reno, and is nearer the mountains. As a result, temperatures were cooler than those in Reno by a few degrees. Enough to make V-W 16 degrees off and WeatherNation 14 degrees off. As we looked at the correct verification, the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 68, Low 28
Thursday – High 66, Low 30

We’re on the road again, this time it’s a massive 2647.75 mile, 5 day journey. We’ll cover ground at a pace of 65.3, which will mean our days will require coverage of 522 miles. There is a lot of driving to do, so we better start doing it.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
It’s going to be pretty chilly in the open basin of northern Nevada, particularly as night begins to fall over the eastern portion of the state. That should be the only issue we have to deal with, however, as a broad upper level ridge remains in place, smothering any hint at instability. The day will take us to Lake Point, Utah, just south of the Great Salt Lake.

DAY TWO (Friday)
A ridge moving out of western Canada into the northern Rockies will bring some snow showers to the western half of Wyoming. If we leave early enough in the day, we might be able to avoid much of the activity. Still, I think by the time we reach the highest points of Wyoming, between Laramie and Rock Springs, and particularly around Rawlins, we may see some flakes. There will be a chance for some snow after we pass Laramie, as precipitation will be filling in across the region. It won’t be as efficient in the low lands as it was in the higher terrain, so the stretch from Cheyenne to Kimball, Nebraska, our destination for Friday night, may in fact be dry. I wouldn’t count on it being completely dry, though.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
An inverted trough and very strong cold air moving into the Plains will join forces to make for a particularly dangerous drive through western Nebraska on Saturday. The worst of the day will be from Big Spring, right northeast of Colorado, to Grand Isle, where white out conditions will be possible. There will be a trend towards improving conditions later in the, but even eastern Nebraska and Iowa will have seen snow and will be enduring the post-storm winds. Visibility will be low, and we will be white knuckling it the whole way through. The day will end in Menlo, Iowa, west f Des Moines, and it will likely be much later than we intend.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
After Saturday’s nightmare of a drive, tehre was nowhere to go but up on Sunday. The system that wrought such nastiness on Saturday will be forming a more frontal orienation by the end of the weekend, with the focal point setting up to our southeast. Of course, behind this boundary, we will be well within the cold sector of the advancing system, and a cold north wind will push us around I-80 through eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Traffic is always a nightmare in Chicago, and will be done no favors by lake effect snow south of Lake Michigan in the southeastern Chicagoland area. The good news is, when we arrive in Angola, Indiana, the snow will be done. Present and on the ground, but done.

DAY FIVE (Monday)
As with the drive on Sunday, the drive on Monday will be free of significant snowfall, outside of the northwind induced lake effect snow. We are at the mercy of a different lake this time around. North winds of of Lake Erie mised with the hills of western Pennsylvania will lead to some flurries around Pittsburgh. In the end,when we descend the Appalachians towards Reading, we will find an area of the country recovering from another nor-easter (except we will have been dealing it since it was a mid-wester). This round will have been warmer, with rain changing to snow in Reading. Keep an eye out for some slick spots as we slide into our final destination.

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