Successor to ‘Phailin’ brewing as NE monsoon sets in

Erstwhile cyclone Phailin has a successor in the making as a low-pressure area in South-West Bay of Bengal intensified on Monday.

Along with this, it also brought in strong play of easterly winds which drove away the remnant of South-West monsoon, making way for the North-East monsoon.

MINIMAL STORM

India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the onset of the ‘monsoon in reverse’ over South Peninsula on Monday morning.

The IMD said the intensified ‘low’ (well-marked ‘low’) could deepen further into a monsoon depression, a minimal tropical storm by Tuesday. Latest indications suggest that the weather system is being influenced more by the warmer pool of waters along the north Tamil Nadu and contiguous south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Accordingly, weather models indicate that the prospective depression could take aim towards the north Tamil Nadu coast (unlike area to the South as forecast earlier).

FAMILIAR GROUND

The system would break up on impacting the coast and a remnant head into interior peninsula before entering Arabian Sea to tread on familiar surface of warm sea waters.

Here, it is forecast to re-intensify and move a little north along the coast before guiding itself away towards central Arabian Sea.

This is likely to result in widespread rain and thundershowers for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh for the next few days.

A US-based storm tracker predicted that the Bay of Bengal might find itself hosting two more storms over the next week or so.

The first one will originate from the Bay itself while the second is forecast to develop from re-intensification of a ‘storm pulse’ crossing in from South China Sea.

MORE STORMS?

Both will need confirmation and constant tracking, but models concur that the Bay will be in a heightened state of activity over the next week.

Meanwhile, the IMD has said in a warning that heavy to very heavy rainfall would break out at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema until Tuesday morning.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall would lash isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema for the rest of Tuesday.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema on Wednesday. Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Karnataka.