Bruins should prevail in first-round series against Red Wings

Thursday

Apr 17, 2014 at 11:26 PM

The Bruins, despite posting the best regular-season record in the NHL, face a difficult test from the Detroit Red Wings in Round 1 of the playoffs. There are reasons for concern, but the B's should have what it takes to advance.

Mike Loftus The Patriot Ledger

BOSTON – Somehow, it seems a little unfair. Granted, the Stanley Cup playoffs test just about every team that qualifies, every single year – but couldn’t the Bruins have been rewarded a little more handsomely for finishing first overall in the NHL than having to face the Detroit Red Wings in the first round?

Sorry, but that’s the way it goes and it finally starts tonight with Game 1 at TD Garden (7:35, NESN, WBZ-FM/98.5).

The prevailing theory is that the Bruins, despite finishing 24 points ahead of the Wings in the overall standings, not only drew a much tougher opponent than might reasonably have been expected, but a team that could very well eliminate them.

Fair enough. The Red Wings have a tremendous playoff pedigree (23 consecutive appearances), a great coach (Mike Babcock), some fresh young talent, and they beat the B’s in 3-of-4 regular-season meetings. The last meeting, a 3-2 Wings win on April 2, ended the Bruins’ 16-game unbeaten-in-regulation streak.

The Red Wings also lost more games (43, including overtime/shootout decisions) than they won (39), gave up more goals than they scored (217-221), and while they played well down the stretch to qualify as the second wild card in the Eastern Conference – also known as the No. 8 seed – they might not have qualified if the Toronto Maple Leafs hadn’t lost eight games in a row in March.

It’s never easy to figure out what matters most when forecasting a playoff series. Recent performance? Head-to-head competition? Position-by-position comparison? Intangibles, like playoff experience, leadership, karma?

The Bruins, it can be argued or has been proved over 82 games, have better goaltending (Tuukka Rask vs. Jimmy Howard), better scoring potential, better special teams and a potentially dominant defensive figure in Zdeno Chara. They also have much more recent post-season success than the Red Wings, who haven’t been past the second round since losing the 2009 Cup final, one year after they last won it. Several Wings have little to no playoff experience.

So why worry? Why predict a long, drawn-out series?

Let’s attack the second point first: A lengthy first round should be expected, at least in part, because that’s become part of the Bruins’ makeup. They’ve had four seven-game first rounds in their six-year playoff streak under coach Claude Julien, including the last three straight springs. They’re 0-1 as a lower seed, 2-1 as the higher seed, and they’ve reached the Stanley Cup finals both times they’ve opened the playoffs with a 4-3 win in Round 1.

Why be so wary of the Wings? Usually, it would be due to the presence of Babcock, his system, and elite two-way forwards Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Datsyuk, however, is only a couple of weeks back from a knee injury and Zetterberg, while practicing, is not expected to start the series after sustaining a back injury in the Olympics. Jonathan Ericsson (finger surgery), their No. 2 defenseman, is also not ready to play.

That wild-card aspect of the Wings’ lineup seems to strike the most fear in the hearts of Bruins’ fans. Gustav Nyquist, a salary cap casualty in October, was finally summoned from the AHL on Nov. 21 and went on to lead the team with 28 goals. Forwards Luke Glendening (mid-December), Riley Sheahan and Tomas Jurco (both early January) also came up from the minors to make significant contributions.

There’s some irony there because the Bruins’ cast of young and/or relatively inexperienced players – forwards Reilly Smith and Carl Soderberg, defensemen Dougie Hamilton, Torey Krug and Kevan Miller – doesn’t get so much love for helping the B’s post the best record in the league.

To be sure, the performances of Hamilton, Krug and Miller in the absence of injured and/or departed stalwarts Dennis Seidenberg, Adam McQuaid and Andrew Ference will be critical to the Bruins’ chances. That’s going to be the most-watched aspect of the series, from a local perspective.

A more immediate concern, though, is how the B’s handle the anticipated absence of veteran wingers Chris Kelly (back) and Daniel Paille (head) at the start of the series. Both kill penalties and Kelly has helped complete a third scoring line with Soderberg and Loui Eriksson. The Bruins must manage that situation and the sooner the better. If they let the Wings jump ahead in this series, all those young players will be even more excited – maybe just in time for the return of Zetterberg, whom most expect to play at some point.

It says here that the Bruins will do it, although not easily or quickly.

PREDICTION: Bruins in 7

Mike Loftus may be reached at mloftus@ledger.com. On Twitter.com: @MLoftus_Ledger.