Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Bond Conundrum and How to Manage

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: August 20, 2019

The past couple of weeks have been breathtaking for bond investors and observers of the bond market. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond is now at a record low – it dipped under 2% this week – and the 10-year Treasury is not far off its record low of 1.36% set in July 2016 – the yield now sits at 1.53%. With a little more than two weeks gone in August, we have seen the 10-year drop 47 basis points and the 30-year 53 basis points. This is more movement in two weeks than we sometimes see in six months.

There are many crosscurrents here. Most pundits are using the inversion of the yield curve as a forecast of a slowdown. But as we have noted in other pieces, economic slowdowns are far from synchronous with inversions. Growth continued for a year and a half after the yield curve inverted in 2006.

This is a bond market that has been buffeted by a number of factors that are not US-related.

Europe is mired in negative interest rates. The wisdom of having negative interest is strongly debated. One thing that is pretty clear to us is that negative rates have not helped the European banking system, and negative rates here do not help US banks, either – witness how poorly financials have done since the Federal Reserve changed its tune towards the end of last year.

The slowdown in China has pushed the yuan lower, and China’s growth rate has dropped. This has contributed to the rush into Treasuries. But we think there may be more playing out here, and it is symbolized by the protests in Hong Kong in recent weeks. Coming on top of the slowdown in Mainland China, the protests may herald the beginning of new freedom movements that the Chinese government will struggle to contend with.

How to manage bond assets

We continue to manage Cumberland total-return bond assets in a barbell method, accenting both shorter-term securities for liquidity and longer-term bonds to lock in yields, with what have been non-Treasury securities in the taxable world and longer tax-free bonds in munis. Indeed, with the fast rush down in Treasury yields, longer-dated munis, though at historical lows, offer value when you can get 3% higher grade in a world where long Treasuries are at 2%. We will take our chances with 160% yield ratios, knowing that defensiveness is built into the cheapness. The front end of the muni curve is VERY expensive relative to Treasuries, so even with a barbell and very low nominal yields, it’s been prudent to have exposure to the longer end of the market.The barbell strategy works less well when the Fed is at the end of a hiking cycle. We don’t believe the Fed is done yet: This is a pause in the Fed’s addressing the US economy. For all the change in talk from the Fed’s being on autopilot to now being data-dependent, the Fed has raised the fed funds target by 25 basis points in December and lowered it by 25 basis points last meeting; so from a fed funds target standpoint we are where we were last fall.

Equity markets are decently higher, and our economy continues to improve, yet the bond market has seen yields come down dramatically, in a manner that doesn’t square with US data but is more sympathetic towards the slower growth in Europe and China.

The trade war and concerns about slow growth notwithstanding, the US economy continues to do well. Our thoughts are that this race to the bottom in yields will slowly give way to a recognition that the US economy is on firm ground; the force of higher wages will push inflation higher; and the Fed will resume – albeit slowly – addressing the US economy. This is why Chairman Powell gave the markets a rate cut of only 25 bps last meeting though the markets were clamoring for 50.

Bond market yields here are high versus those in Europe, and that will keep a lid on things for a while. But the rush down has been overdone, in our opinion. My colleague David Kotok often likes to quote Herbert Stein, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Nixon and Ford. Stein’s commonsense “law” was that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” We feel that’s true with long bond yields. The ride down in yields has helped portfolios. But backups can hurt, which is why we continue to get more defensive at the margin. The barbell is still in place.

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Subscribe to our mailing list

Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services.
Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.
It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.