Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.

Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

"Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast."

That is true, but in this case it depends on the perimeters present in the atmosphere. There is an upper-level ridge located over the United States that would influence the steering of Bret, should it intensify to the point that it can feel deep-layer steering.

And I believe he was just trying to point out that if it were a more intense storm, it would be steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere, allowing it to take a westward track, as indicated by the BAM-Deep layer model.

It's not too helpful when the steering currents are very weak. And to be honest, a stronger storm wouldn't really take a more westward track as stated in Dr. Masters blog. It will be more likely to feel the weakness in the ridge...

"Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast."

And I believe he was just trying to point out that if it were a more intense storm, it would be steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere, allowing it to take a westward track, as indicated by the BAM-Deep layer model.

Its more of an analysis of a model really, just an equation of a storm with certain parameters and what it would do if it was placed in the current location of the storm.

Quoting SouthDadeFish: The BAM suite isn't a dynamical model... It's a simple statistical model that uses the beta effect in its forecasting. Not too helpful here.

it uses steering currents, so I don't know why it wouldn't be helpful.

And I believe he was just trying to point out that if it were a more intense storm, it would be steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere, allowing it to take a westward track, as indicated by the BAM-Deep layer model.

Quoting cchsweatherman:By the way, the more this storm intensifies, the more influence it will feel from the ridge and want to head westward as suggested by the BAMD which shows the path a stronger system would take.

Sorry, but there is no current westward component to it's movement currently.

I know its a statistical model, but it helps show the general steering pattern for a stronger system.

To an extent yes. From what I've heard and know, the stronger this thing gets the more likely it is to feel the weakness in the ridge and get pulled NE. Then again if it keeps drifting south who knows what will happen.

Quoting cchsweatherman:By the way, the more this storm intensifies, the more influence it will feel from the ridge and want to head westward as suggested by the BAMD which shows the path a stronger system would take.

The BAM suite isn't a dynamical model... It's a simple statistical model that uses the beta effect in its forecasting. Not too helpful here.

That's the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) coming together. Curved band like we are seeing with ADT & that last vortex message is the step before CDO which looks like an eye on radar that isn't on satellite.

Think they just had to update quickly. If they find evidence of anything higher, I'm sure they'll update. The main thing is that they issued the proper tropical storm warnings. Probably a little late, though. LOL.

LOL, I agree. Warnings should've been posted since the first advisory IMO.

Think they just had to update quickly. If they find evidence of anything higher, I'm sure they'll update. The main thing is that they issued the proper tropical storm warnings. Probably a little late, though. LOL.

Quoting MississippiWx:If Bret's pressure continues to fall like this, we should see an explosion of convection. I'd have a hard time believing that the pressure could keep falling so fast, though. He's over the warmest waters in the Atlantic, so we'll see.

Recon almost to center again, we shall see if it as dropped anymore as well as exact movement.

If Bret's pressure continues to fall like this, we should see an explosion of convection. I'd have a hard time believing that the pressure could keep falling so fast, though. He's over the warmest waters in the Atlantic, so we'll see.