A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.

Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94LA tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

JuliaTropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon FanapiTyphoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.

Elsewhere in the tropicsIn many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

Quoting LBAR:I'm gonna ask again...hopefully everyone has moved past whatever was going on because I've always come here to learn new things and that ain't happenin' right now. Ugh.

Why has the NHC found it necessary include the monsoonal troughs in this year's discussions? What is the purpose of this? Does anyone know why it would be perceived to be important information? I don't recall them discussing it before, although I have seen it analyzed on the surface maps. Maybe it's just me, but I notice when things are different in the NHC's posts.

The best person to ask is levi32, he noticed it months ago and did a big write up explaining it.

I'm gonna ask again...hopefully everyone has moved past whatever was going on because I've always come here to learn new things and that ain't happenin' right now. Ugh.

Why has the NHC found it necessary include the monsoonal troughs in this year's discussions? What is the purpose of this? Does anyone know why it would be perceived to be important information? I don't recall them discussing it before, although I have seen it analyzed on the surface maps. Maybe it's just me, but I notice when things are different in the NHC's posts.

Its not my intention to start an argument. I was just answering a question and I tell it the way I see it. This is your point of view and I respectfully disagree with you. A few of you have ego trips also and a few were drinking (assuming that what was written by them was correct).

You all need to learn about respect and tolerance.

+1000, my post earlier explains a lot about some people on this forum:0

Quoting JLPR2:Could you all just Can it! :\StormW is not longer part of WU so what's up with this ridiculous discussion?

No, Dr. Masters shouldn't advertise where he went, Storm had a featured blog spot which was gracefully given to him by Dr. M and now he suddenly leaves and wants to take Wu members with him? How do you think Dr. M feels about that?StormW was free to leave but he could have just left the main blog no? He is gone, deal with the loss and let us breathe!Had to say that, this is getting ridiculous, I'm even seeing regulars insulting regulars, no trolls anymore.

Also...

Anyone got the link to the Bermuda webcam? I know it is a few pages back but I dont want to look thru so many posts. xD

Quoting AnthonyJKenn:Oh...and as for StormW (and this will be my ONE and ONLY take on this):

I'm sorry to see him gone myself, his forecasting was valuable and a refreshing change of pace here.

On the other hand, though, this is Dr. Jeff Masters' blog, and if you tick him off too much by not playing to his rules, he, like most other blogmasters, reserves the right to kick you out for whatever reason...fair or unfair. I haven't seen enough to make a personal comment on whether StormW crossed the line or not; but that's neither here nor there....he's not here and that's all that matters.

If you like him, then go to his new blog and show him. Otherwise, may we move on and get back to what we are here for in the first place...like, you know, monitoring the weather??