Note: I wrote much of this prior to the 7/2/19 games, so a few roster moves and observations may be missing. Also, feel free to add in more detailed commentary for those who have studied the players more closely in a particular level; i did not do “just last month” splits on every single player so some players who have significantly improved upon slow starts (or the reverse) may be missed.

AAA/Fresno 2019

Rotation Now: Fedde, JRoss, McGowin, Hoover, Braymer

Rotation Mid-May: Voth, McGowin, Copeland, Espino, MSanchez.

Rotation to Start: McGowin, Copeland, Voth, Espino, Alvarez

Changes in the rotation since last post: Voth has earned his promotion, and then earned more starts over Fedde at the MLB level. It looks like the “hey lets use Joe Ross as a reliever” experiment is finally over; he’s been returned to Fresno to officially get stretched out and return to the rotation. Espino is on the DL, replaced by Hoover (who suddenly at 31 is a starter after years of pitching in relief?). Sanchez got demoted and replaced by Braymer, who just arrived. Lastly Copeland has been returned to the long-man/spot starter role. The sole holdover from 6 weeks ago is McGowin … but what this doesn’t show is his own up-and-back movement. Lots of shuffle in the Fresno rotation.

I’d like to highlight Ben Braymer though, because his being in AAA is pretty amazing. He was an 18th round pick in 2016, signed for just $100k out of Auburn, and now sits in the AAA rotation at the edge of the majors. I don’t think the Nats have seen such a low-round pick make it this far since perhaps Stephen Lombardozzi, a 19th rounder in 2008.

Changes in the bullpen since last post: Rainey promoted … and immediately became Nats bullpen savior of the week. Hoover now in the rotation. Nunu cut loose after posting a 7.25 ERA in 22 innings. Mills sent back down. Bourque was promoted to the majors from AA, then optioned back to AAA. Baez promoted from AA. Kontos signed. Copeland dumped to bullpen. Rodney signed and quickly promoted. Lastly Cordero, who was in DFA limbo last post, was claimed by Toronto and is gone. Phew; that’s 10 different moves for the team, just 3 guys in the same place they were 6 weeks ago, and just two stable names from day one.

Who’s hot: Dakota Bacus continues to be the most impressive reliever in AAA, maintaining a seasonal ERA of 2.36 and a whip of 1.19. Ross’ numbers as a starter in Fresno are respectable; 3.68 ERA in 5 starts with just 4 walks.

Who’s not? Kontos has not been good so far, but a lot of his ERA is one bad outing in Salt Lake. Howell has gotten shelled in basically each of his last 6-7 outings and looks toast from the stat sheets.

Who’s next guy to get the call? I think Bacus deserves the next call-up, perhaps over Bourque even though he’s not on the 40-man. I’d like to see Ross get the next spot start, on regular rest.

Who’s next to get the Axe? I think the team may be reaching the end of the line with over-30 MLFA guys like Kontos and Hoover, now that they’ve got a slew of new draft picks in.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Adams and Voth to get the call, Dragmire to get the Axe. Results? Adams released (?), Voth now in Majors, Dragmire now demoted.

May: Voth, Rainey to get the call. Hoover, Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire to get the Axe. Results: Voth, Rainey now in Majors. Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire demoted. Hoover still hanging in there.

AA/Harrisburg 2019

Rotation Now: Mapes, Fuentes, MSanchez, Tetreault,Crowe with ALee just called up

Rotation Mid-May: Crowe, Tetreault, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer

Rotation to Start: Crowe, Fedde, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer*

Changes since last post: Sharp to the D/L, replaced by Fuentes. Braymer got bumped up, replaced by MSanchez coming back down. Lastly Lee just got promoted and may be taking someone’s spot.

Changes since last post: Bourque up, Baez up. Fuentes moved from swingman to rotation. Ondrusek bounced around, he’s currently on the AAA D/L. Mills was up and is now back. Bonnell was signed after being dropped by Tampa and has been pretty solid. Venters was signed, appeared briefly and was called up for bullpen reinforcement duty. Lastly Dragmire is dumped here after posting a double digit ERA in Fresno.

Who’s hot: Steven Fuentes has continued right where he left off in High-A, and holds a 1.80 ERA in 11 appearances/7 starts in AA. He’s only 22. I’m guessing we’re going to start seeing more of him on Nats top10 farm lists if he keeps this up.

Who’s not? Nobody is pitching egregiously bad honestly; Mapes and Tetreault are both posting worse than you’d like to see numbers but Tetreault is just 23 and is in AA for the first time. Mapes is a bit more concerning; he’s now 27, in his 6th pro season, was a 30th round pick probably given a 4-figure bonus, and the team has almost nothing invested in him.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Barrett? I wonder what else he has to prove in AA at this point. I’d say its a bit too early to promote Fuentes, and the rest of the rotation needs more time in AA.

Who’s next to get the Axe? Mapes may be at the end of the line, given his draft pedigree.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Crowe, Fedde to get the call. Sharp, Gilbeau to get the Axe. Results? Fedde up, the rest still hanging in there

May: Crowe, Bourque to get the call. Pena to get the Axe. Results? Bourque up, Crowe and Pena still hanging in AA.

High-A/Potomac 2019

Rotation Now: Johnston, Raquet*, Cate*, ?, MPena (the question mark is because Lee got promoted the day we were writing this)

Changes since last post: Borne to the D/L, Lee promoted. To replace them we got Cate from Low-A and a question mark the be filled (if it were me) by Teel. Otherwise a very steady rotation here: 3 of the 5 havn’t changed since opening day.

Changes from last time: Istler returns from XST/witness protection. Fletcher promoted from low-A, along with Pantoja (and Teel, and Cate: we’ve seen 5 promotions so far). Bogucki released.

Who’s hot: I like what I see out of Teel and Fletcher so far, both mid-season promotions. Fletcher has a 24/5 K/BB ratio since being promoted a few weeks back, and Teel has now made it to his 4th pro level since being drafted last June. Amazingly, Reyes seems to have found his calling, going 10 straight outings without giving up a run.

Who’s not? Raquet has the worst WHIP of the rotation, and Pena the worst ERA. Yet both remain mainstays in the Potomac bullpen. Raquet is putting up almost identical numbers to last year, but as a high-bonus 3rd rounder probably gets more rope than a similarly producing 15th rounder. Pena is just 22 but may be working towards another year in Potomac.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Istler really should be in AA; he’s given up zero runs in 10 High-A innings, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he spent most of last year in AA posting a 2.53 ERA. Why exactly is he in Potomac?

Who’s next to get the Axe? Unclear; McKinney’s season numbers are poor but he’s pitched a number of clean outings since his return from the D/L. Cate’s first two starts havn’t been stellar. I don’t have a great case for anyone to get demoted or cut.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Tetreault and Fuentes up. Reyes and Bourne to get the axe.. Results? Both Tetreault and Fuentes since promoted. Reyes dumped from the rotation finally, Borne on the D/L.

May: Nobody to get the call. Bogucki and Reyes to get the Axe. Results? Bogucki indeed released, Reyes demoted to the pen but succeeding in new role.

Changes since last post: Cate Promoted, Peguero to the D/L. To replace them we’ve seen Schaller promoted up from XST/GCL and Stoeckinger pulled from the tandem starter ranks. Like with Potomac, 3 of the 5 starters the same since opening day.

changes since last post: Howell returns to the fold after missing all of 2018 with injury. Fletcher promoted. Vann (a 2018 draftee) promoted up from XST/GCL.

Who’s hot: Stoeckinger has earned his spot in the rotation (if, indeed he stays there). 2.54 ERA, 1.19 whip in 39 IP as a tandem starter this year.

Who’s not? Alastre continues to struggle in the rotation; hes now ballooned to a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 whip on the year while repeating the level. He’s only 21 though, so he’s got plenty of time. Howell has struggled since his reinstatement, and he does not have a ton of time, being a lower round pick coming off injury.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Turner has had a nifty time in the Low-A bullpen; 28 Ks in 17 innings. I’d also say Peguero, who has the best stats of any starter, but he’s on teh D/L currently.

Who’s next to get the Axe? Alastre. Howell.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Peguero and Fletcher up. Alastre to get the Axe. Results? Peguero hurt, Fletcher up, Alastre still in the rotation.

Its a little early to pass judgement on the starts out of Auburn, but we’ll do it anyway. I will note though that with recent 2019 draftee assignments, there’s now TWENTY (20) arms on the squad. So you have to wonder if we’re about to see some shedding.

Who’s hot: Niomar Gomez has had 3 solid starts to begin the season, picking up where he left off last year. Troop, in his 3rd pro season, has yet to give up a run while posting a 12/0 K/BB ratio in two starts and needs to be moved up. Strom looks solid, after struggling in Low-A, and may be stuck between levels.

Who’s not? 18yr old Pedro Gonzalez has had 3 starts; in those 3 starts he’s pitched a grand total of 4 innings, given up 13 hits 5 walks and 18 total runs. Those are Trevor Rosenthal numbers. He had a 9.60 ERA in the GCL last year; why exactly is he in Short-A going against college draftees 4 years his senior?

Who’s next guy to get the call? Troop

Who’s next to get the Axe? Gonzalez.

Rookie/GCL 2019

rotation: Denaburg, Alvarado/Seijas, Yean, Pozo, Rutledge, Peterson

tandem starters: Hiraldo, BPena*, Beasley

bullpen: Jameson, WSeverino, Amoroso, Dyson, Ferrer*, Cuevas, Ribalta

We’re basically one “turn” through the GCL rotation, and now we have 1st round pick Jackson Rutledge in Florida for (presumably) a short stay. Surprise 2019 signees Michael Cuevas and Orlando Ribalta are also here and may themselves be in the rotation (they were just assigned yesterday or today).

The Big News here is Mason Denaburg of course. He’s finally on a team and pitching professionally. Through two starts, he’s given up a couple runs in 7 innings, with a few too many walks.

Who’s hot: too early

Who’s not? too early.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Rutledge really shouldn’t be here long. Neither should Tyler Dyson, 5th round 2019 pick from Florida. And neither should Todd Peterson, 7th round pick out of LSU. Generally speaking, SEC starters are Short-A talents at worst, and should be fast tracked to Low-A

Who’s next to get the Axe? nobody.

XST names of interest

Why hasn’t Nick Wells been assigned to a level yet?? He was traded for weeks ago.

Robbie Dickey has not pitched since 2016, yet still remains in XST.

4th rounder Matt Cronin has yet to be assigned to a team; i’m really curious to see if he can move fast.

The rotation is: Voth, McGowin, Copeland, Espino, MSanchez. Changes from last post: Alvarez got dumped to the bullpen thanks to his 8.20 ERA, Dragmire is on the D/L, Ross got promoted to the needy MLB bullpen, and MSanchez was promoted up from AA to fill the rotation gap.

The Bullpen is: Rainey, Hoover, Self, Bacus, Nuno, JMills*, Blazek with Alvarez as long-man/spot starter. Changes from last post: Adams was DFA’d and traded for Nick Wells, a Battlefield HS grad who now gets to play closer to home. Cordero was also DFA’d and as of this writing sits in DFA limbo. To replace them the team promoted JMills from AA and signed Blazek off the street a day before this writing.

Who’s hot: McGowin has thrown 4 straight QS. Voth remains the best AAA starter, keeping his ERA under 4.00 despite playing in the PCL. Self and Bacus continue to perform well in their first AAA experiences. I continue to be dumbfounded why Adams was DFA’d; here’s his AAA line this year for Fresno: 12.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 0.89 Whip, 24/3 K/BB. Yet the team (at the time) thought it was more important to keep Cordero on the roster.

Who’s not? Dragmire may go straight to release waivers off the D/L (28 hits in 13 IP). Mills does not look ready for AAA (13.50 ERA in 8 IP). Neither does Mario Sanchez (13 hits in 7IP in 2 starts).

Who’s next guy to get the call? Voth if they need a starter. The only 40-man reliever left here is Rainey and he can’t find the plate (28ks and 12 walks in 16.2 innings).

Who’s next to get the Axe? the JJ Hoover experiment may be over. Both Mills and Sanchez probably should return to AA. Dragmire continues to be in jeopardy of his roster spot when he gets healthy.

Who’s hot: Crowe remains the best AA starter and is probably now the best SP prospect in our system. Bourque has a 29/5 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and its rather inexplicable that he a) remains in AA and b) has not yet gotten called into the MLB relief corps to alleviate the bullpen issues. Tetreault has picked up right where he left off in High-A, with a 1.43 ERA through 3 AA starts and now has a 1.50 across 7 starts and two levels on the year. Barrett continues to look solid and has MLB experience, so may be an option in the future.

Who’s not? Mapes has the worst ERA of the rotation, really the only starter you can quibble with. Pena and Guilbeau are struggling in the bullpen.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Crowe, Bourque

Who’s next to get the Axe? Pena; the org has stuck by him a long, long time fora 16th round pick. He’s 27 in AA and now in his 8th pro season here. But an ERA in the 6s puts him on the chopping line when the next reliever needs to be promoted.

High-A/Potomac 2019

Rotation: Johnston, Borne*, Raquet*, ALee, MPena. Changes from last time: Tetreault promoted, Reyes dumped to the pen after posting an ERA > 9.00. Replaced in the rotation by Lee, who was bumped up from spot-starter/swingman.

Who’s hot: I like what I see out of Lee in the rotation so far; he’s got the best ERA and peripherals of any High-A starter. Teel and Bartow are the best relievers right now by stats, and Bartow has 2 of the 3 saves the staff has on the entire season (how is that possible? In 14 victories they only have 3 saves. that’s saying something).

Who’s not? Raquet and Pena both have ERAs north of 7 in the rotation. Nothing personal against Raquet, but I hated the draft pick at the time, and now he’s repeating high-A with the same crummy numbers and lack of swing and miss he exhibited there last year. Every time I see him get shelled in a start its another indictment of that draft pick and that draft class in general.

Who’s next guy to get the call? They’ve already promoted the two best arms (Tetreault and Fuentes). No starters really pushing for a promotion right now.

Who’s next to get the Axe? Bogucki is putting on > 2 runners an inning but was solid in High-A last year. The fact that Reyes continues to have a roster spot astounds me: he is now in high-A for the 3rd year; he was also in High-A in 2016 and 2017, neither season of which merited his 2018 promotion to AA (where he got shelled).

Low-A/Hagerstown 2019

Rotation: Alastre, Adon, Cate*, Irvin, FPeguero. Changes from last time: Strom was demoted to XST, and the tandem starting seems to have been somewhat relaxed in that this set of 5 starters has rotated for several turns now.

Bullpen: Stoeckinger*, AGuillen, RWilliamson*, Tapani, Fletcher*, Day as swingmen/spot starters, along with Brasher, TTurner in the pen as more conventional relievers. Changes from last time: Teel and German promoted, and RWilliamson and Tapani promoted from GCL/XST.

Who’s hot: Cate and Peguero, the two starters I noted as being “hot” in the last post, remain the two best starters in Low-A. Cate, a college Sr 2nd rounder last year, is probably too old for the level and needs to be moved up. Fletcher, Stoeckinger and Guillen are pitching well in their “tandem” multi-inning roles.

Who’s not? Irvin’s seasonal numbers are skewed by a 1ip/9-run outing, but he has the worst ERA in the rotation right now. Brasher has gotten hit hard in limited action. Alastre continues to not find the plate; he has 25 walks in 35 innings.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Cate needs to move up stat. Same with Peguero; he’s now 23 dominating Low-A. Why are they still there? Same with Fletcher; he’s now 23, was a senior sign and has 6 weeks of dominant numbers in low-A. Why wait?

Who’s next to get the Axe? Brasher seems most likely to be the next guy sent back to XST.

XST names of interest

Where is Istler? He was solid in AA and even had some AAA time last year. Still unassigned.

Where’s Jhon Romero? He got assigned to High-A.

Pantoja? Still missing; may have been a “quiet” release.

No word yet about Seth Romero‘s rehab progress.

Since the last posting, the team officially assigned 5 guys to Low-A and put them directly on the DL: Barnett, WDavis, Howell, SRomero, Troop. Barrett and WDavis were on the GCL team last year. Howell and Troop were “missing” names from last year’s Low-A team now found, and of course Romero remains perhaps the worst 1st round pick this team has had since the Aaron Crow/Jim Bowden debacle.

Voth has completely remade his career in less than a month. Photo mlb.com official

I havn’t been doing regular check-ins with the minor league staffs for a few years, but I have always maintained little “cheat sheet” notes on the staffs of the levels day in/day out (thanks in no small part to the daily work of Luke Erickson over at Nationals Prospects of course).

It occurred to me, doing updates this week, that the four full season rotations have been about as stable as I can ever remember them this year. So I thought i’d do a quick swing through the four staffs, with quick notes on who has looked good or bad and what we may see in terms of movement going forward.

Rotation thoughts: A month in and the only change we’ve seen to the AAA rotation was the flipping of Milone and Voth thanks to Voth’s brief call-up earlier this week. Voth has absolutely re-made his career so far this year, going from possible “first man to be DFA’d” off the 40-man to a guy who is forcing his way into the conversation the next time the Nats need a starter. For May he’s posted a 0.76 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, has a 30/3 K/BB ratio in 23 innings and has given up just 13 hits. Man, is he found gold for a team who has traded away an awful lot of pitching prospects over the past couple of seasons?

The veteran insurance policies Jackson and Milone are both pitching about as I’d expect them to be: Milone slightly better, with better base-runner control, Jackson with more wildness and worse stats. Erick Fedde has not been either good or bad, giving up a hit an inning and maintaining a 4-1 K-BB ratio but not showing any real dominance. My guess is that he’ll be sticking in AAA for a while.

The last guy in the rotation may be the most interesting: Cesar Vargas was a low-key spring MLFA signing after bouncing around San Diego’s system last year. He’s come out in 2018 looking serviceable and might be putting himself ahead of the veterans in the pecking order.

Bullpen thoughts: John Simms has looked great in a long-man role. He’s quietly been serviceable at every level in his journey upwards and you have to wonder if he’ll eventually push for a 9/1 call up. Most of the rest of the bullpen is too SSS to make real judgements, though we have seen three relievers get pushed to the majors right now (Torres, Gott, Suero) and fourth who was up and is now in AAA (Adams). Cordero still shows the same issues that have plagued him for a while; he’s got 16/8 K/BB in 11 innings. Barrett remains with the system and we hope he can get back to his former self; he’d certainly help out at the MLB level.

Rotation thoughts: The only substantive change in the rotation from the first pass through was to replace Darnell with Long. Dragmire and Jefry Rodriguez have both excelled thus far, though Rodriguez’s stats look more like a guy who might be pressing for promotion (more Ks, fewer hits). Dragmire is showing more of what he displayed last year at AA and he may need the additional challenge of AAA soon. Estevez and Reyes are not faring as well thus far, with elevated ERAs and WHIPs. And Long, upon his demotion from AAA, has been poor in his three AA starts, with just 6 punch-outs and a 1.85 WHIP in 13 innings. Rodriguez seems like the first starter in line for promotion.

Bullpen thoughts: Austen Williams has looked great since getting moved out of the rotation. Kaleb Fleck has some interesting stats: he’s got an 18/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings but has an ugly 5.91 ERA (I’m sure his FIP is like 3 points lower). Fleck is too good for AA; he spent all last year in AAA and isn’t proving anything here. Bryan Harper‘s return from injury is going ok .. he’s got nearly a 2.00 WHIP though. Long serving Nats farmhand Dakota Bacus got shelled in four appearances and currently sits on the D/L; he had excellent numbers in 2017 but is getting a bit long in the tooth for AA and I wonder if he’s running out of time. One big name still sits in XST: Nick Lee, who looked promising before injuries derailed his progress.

Rotation thoughts: The only change to the opening day rotation literally happened yesterday, with Mapes dropping to the D/L and (likely) McGowin (freshly taken off the AA D/L and demoted to Potomac) likely to take his place. Mapes has the best starter ERA … but the worst WHIP. Crownover may have the nicest looking stat line, with a nifty 28/4 K/BB ratio and solid peripherals. Perhaps the most important high-A arm may be Wil Crowe and so far he’s more than handling high-A; the 2017 2nd rounder has a great whip, good ratios and is looking like an excellent draft pick. Baez and Sharp fill out the rest of the rotation; both showing mid 4 ERAs and not really being good enough or bad enough to comment on thus far. The one big notable missing name here is Seth Romero, who should be featuring in this rotation as we speak but instead apparently still sits not at XST but at home in Houston. Its hard to prove the “i told you so” guys wrong when it literally took less than a season for his well-publicized maturity issues to come to the forefront.

Bullpen thoughts: Some good and some bad in the bullpen; Rivera and Howard have gotten dinged so far, while Bourque, Mills and Pantoja look solid. Bourque in particular now boasts a 22/4 K/BB ratio in 12 relief innings; like that ratio. 36th rounder Klobosits still looking solid; how exactly was he still around that late in the draft if he’s already succeeding in high-A?

Rotation thoughts: It was clear to this observer that the first few turns through the rotation were in the “tandem starter” configuration, with each of the names in the “opening rotation” throwing roughly 3-4 innings each. That has now settled into the current 6-man rotation, all of which now seem to be getting the lion’s share of the innings each time through. Of the “starters,” only really Raquet has acquitted himself well, though i’m concerned about the lack of swing and miss in his game (19/8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings supporting a 2.28 ERA and a 1.05 whip). The rest of the starters are struggling: Stoeckinger hasn’t walked a soul yet in 24 innings … .but has given up 37 hits for an ugly 7.50 ERA. Tetreault, Alastre and Acevedo each have ERAs north of 7.00. Troop and Hill (both 2017 top-10 round draftees) have been less bad but have room for improvement.

The “tandem” starters have been a different story though. Bogucki and Braymer each have been solid, with Braymer sporting a 23/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.81 WHIP and Bogucki sporting a 20/3 K/BB ratio. I wonder how long it’ll be before these guys become the “starters” instead of the “finishers.”

Bullpen thoughts: There’s really only a couple of real “relievers” in Low-A, but one of them has been quite solid. McKinney has a 14/1 K/BB ratio in just 8 2/3 innings and has yet to give up an earned run.

There’s still a slew of guys technically in “XST” or assigned to the Short-A roster who could fill in here, most of whom have prior Low-A experience and could contribute.

Who is making a push for promotion? Braymer, Bogucki, McKinney

Who is in jeopardy of a demotion (or worse): Acevedo, Alastre

That’s a quick run through the systems. Did anyone want to point out someone in particular who they think needs to be talked about?

$5,673,800: total bonus figures paid to the top 10 rounds of players plus the over-slot deal given to 12th rounder Jackson Stoeckinger

$220,300: thus the amount they went over the official bonus pool

$54,875: the amount they left “on the table” under the 5% cushion figure (clearly not enough to get Montes de Oca).

$6,836,300: the total amount of (known) bonus dollars paid to all their signed players. mlbpipeline.com did a good job this year getting bonuses for practically everyone who signed, unlike prior years where anyone outside the top 10 remained mostly a mystery unless they were huge over-slot guys.

Over Slot deals:

1st rounder: Seth Romero: $269,600 over slot. We’ve discussed this ad-naseum; really have no idea how he was able to command an over-slot deal.

7th rounder Jackson Tetreault: $121,900 over slot, a Juco guy with a commitment to USF that they had to buy him out of.

9th rounder Alex Troop: $47,000 over slot: a solid college junior with leverage to go back to school

12th rounder Jackson Stoeckinger: $50,000 over slot to buy the Juco pitcher out of a commit to Kentucky.

Under slot deals:

3rd rounder Nick Raquet, $47,300 under slot, though not nearly as much as I thought he’d be under.

4th rounder Cole Freeman, $50,000 under slot, again a surprisingly high bonus figure paid out to a senior with no leverage.

10th rounder Trey Turner, $31,300 under slot to the TJ rehab pitcher who probably was happy to get what he got.

Some quick research on the seven guys who didn’t sign turned up a couple of useful links:

24th rounder Tim Richards, a senior SS from Cal State Fullerton, has apparently elected to retire rather than take whatever miniscule bonus figure the Nats offered and show up to play in Florida. That’s amazing to me. He just finished a great CWS showing, clearly has talent, and i’m shocked he’s just hanging them up. Why not give it at least one summer in pro ball? You got drafted for crying out loud; you have the rest of your life to be an adult.

No real surprises on the HSers who didn’t sign. Only surprise really was how how high they took Dusty Baker‘s kid as a legacy draft. I wonder if the Nats weren’t trying to make sure they got him rather than some of the other teams Baker has been associated with, so as not to be shown up with their manager, and that explains why he went so high.

No real surprise that Bryce Montes de Oca didn’t sign either, once it became clear that the nats 3rd and 4th rounders didn’t really result in that much savings.

Like we did last week with the Auburn/Short-A roster, lets take a look at who is starting on the named roster in the GCL.

Jared Brashner, 22, RHP 2017 8th round pick from Samford. Senior sign so immediately too old for GCL, hopefully a quick stint before moving up to Short-A. Also though a very underslot deal, so not a lot of expectations here.

Jake Cousins, 22, RHP 2017 20th round pick from Penn. Also a senior sign, from a non-baseball Ivy league school and with a famous DC-area cousin.

Jose De Los Santos, 20, RHP, a 2015 IFA signing (Dominican Republic). Was a middle reliever for the DSL Nats last year with middling results (4.01 ERA, 23/14 K/BB in 33 innings).

Nelson Galindez, 18, LHP 2017 22nd round pick out of a Florida HS. Signed away from a JuCo commitment for the max allowable non top-10 round bonus ($125,000). Its rate to see a high schooler picked in the 20th rounds to sign, but Galindez did. Should be interesting to see what he has.

Darly Infante, 20, LHP 2016 IFA signing (Dominican Republic). Started 12 games for DSL Nats last year with good numbers (2.94 ERA, 52/19 K/BB in 49IP).

Jose Jimenez, 20, LHP 2013 IFA signing (Dominican Republic). Three year veteran of the DSL, working mostly later inning relief but not with the dominant K/9 numbers you’d like to see.

Jared Johnson, 21, LHP 2017 17th rounder out of a Florida Juco. Old for a Juco guy (he turns 22 in September) , hoping to see him pitch his way out of GCL soon.

Kyle Johnston, 20, RHP 2017 6th rounder out of Texas. Texas’ Sunday starter put up decent numbers his junior year, finished strong (his final college game was a 7ip 3run performance in the regionals) and signed for slot as a 6th rounder. Like others, probably shouldn’t be in the GCL as a starter from a big12 college.

Gabe Klobosits, 22, RHP 2017 36th rounder from Auburn. Mostly a reliever for Auburn (a handful of mid-week starts), a 36th round senior sign who probably doesn’t have much in the way of expectations.

Jesus Luzardo, 19, LHP 2016 3rd rounder. This is the big name on the roster that everyone is waiting to see. Luzardo was a HUGE overslot guy in 2016, getting a $1.4M bonus commensurate with the top of the 2nd round and signing him away from a Miami commitment. He has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and this will be his first test.

Jeremy McKinney, 22 RHP 2017 31st rounder from Indiana State. As with several other senior signs, McKinney likely has the next couple of months to keep his spot.

Francys Peguero, 21, RHP 2013 IFA signing (Dominican Republic). Split time last year between GCL and Short-A, starts the year on the D/L.

Nector Ramirez, 20, RHP 2013 IFA signing (Dominican Republic). Missed all of 2016 with a rotator cuff tear after two so-so seasons in the DSL. Should be interesting to see if he’s come back from a tough injury.

Nick Raquet, 21, LHP 2017 3rd round pick from William & Mary. Signed slightly underslot deal; i’ve been critical of this pick and am quite curious to see how he does. The fact that a 3rd round collegiate junior pick is starting in the GCL is already a bad sign for me.

David Smith, 22, RHP 2017 25th rounder from Long Beach State. Good baseball school, good pedigree, but Smith is a 25th round senior sign so expectations are limited.

Leif Strom, 20 RHP 2017 21st round out of a Washington JuCo. Sizeable bonus for the 20th round, should be interesting to see what he has. Unfortunately his first move is to go onto the D/L, where he starts his pro career.

Jackson Tetreault, 21, RHP 2017 7th rounder out of a Florida JuCo. Took an over-slot deal closer to 5th round money to buy him out of a USF commit. I’m going to struggle to spell his name correctly in this blog for a while.

Alex Troop, 20, LHP 2017 9th round pick out of Michigan State. Troop was Michigan’s friday starter and signed an overslot deal to come to the Nats. I look forward to seeing what he has.

Trey Turner, 21, RHP 2017 10th rounder out of Missouri State. Turner was looking like a solid member of Missouri State’s bullpen before heading to TJ surgery; he starts on the D/L and we won’t see him til this time in 2018.

Ryan Williamson, 22 LHP 2015 15th rounder from NC State.

Not listed here is Weston Davis, who is on the GCL roster officially doing a rehab assignment.

They don’t really do starters and relievers in the GCL; instead you see a lot of 3 inning stints from multiple arms. So we won’t try to name a “rotation” here. But squinting here i’d go with Infante, Johnston, Luzardo, Tetreault, Troop as my rotation. (note: i’m writing this prior to seeing who pitches in the first game, so apologies if this is already wrong).

Breakdown of Arms:

21 arms; 3 on the D/L, 1 on rehab assignment.

Average Age: 20 years, 8 months. So that’s kind of old, but what are you going to do when you draft a gazillion college arms right?

Of the 20 non-rehab/rostered players: 8 lefties, 12 righties

Acquisition method breakdown:

13 of the 20 arms are 2017 draftees

2 others are from prior drafts (Luzardo and Williamson)

5 are IFAs; 4 of them are DSL grads from last year, one (Peguero) who has been in-country for a bit but is hurt.

Who is still missing? Not too many:

Jeremy McDonald was at one point on the GCL roster but has been put back into XST as far as I can tell.

Some trickling in 2017 signees: Brigham Hill (who was at the CWS) and Jackson Stoeckinger.

A few guys that seemed likely to matriculate to the GCL but who seem to be repeating DSL: Amoroso, CFlores, AMartinez.

Who am I really interested in seeing? Luzardo first and foremost, Raquet, Johnston, Infante, Tetreault and Troop. Basically all the guys who I think project as starters, plus the controversial 2017 pick Raquet.

We already did a quick reaction to the first day/first two picks and then the top 10 rounds. Here’s a more holistic look at our 2017 draft class. The team announced yesterday that it had already signed an amazing 25 guys, and I think that number is likely to rise to at least 33 players (assuming all top 10 round players and all College seniors sign). That’s quite a few more than I initially projected.

I did want to make a statement though, following up on a back-and-forth in the comments on previous posts about 3rd rounder Nick Raquet (who, unsurprisingly to me, has already signed though no word on his bonus amount). Some asked why I was so critical of the pick. We’ll, here’s why: its about opportunity cost. Raquet was indeed ranked on some boards (#145 in BA’s pre-draft list) but was absent from practically every other credible draft service (MLBpipeline.com for example ranked 200 players and didn’t rank him at all). ESPN/Keith Law, MinorLeagueBall, 20/80 and Fangraphs all had him totally off their lists. Baseball Draft Report had him in the 300s.

The Nats drafted him #103 overall, at the end of the 3rd round.

I have nothing against Raquet personally, nor his school in general (which I denigrated during the comments due to its lack of baseball pedigree). What I have a problem with is taking a player in the third round who:

a) was a far inferior player versus where he was drafted,

b) if the team really, really wanted him would have been available probably 3 or 4 rounds later, and

c) the team chose to take in lieu of many, many better ranked players at the time of the pick.

You could make the same arguments, by the way, about our 4th rounder: a senior in Cole Freeman who again by BA’s rank was drafted at least two rounds too early and by anyone else’s rankings was drafted 5 rounds too early.

The drafting of these two players in the 3rd and 4th cost the team the opportunity to draft two far, far better players in those slots. I don’t have a problem punting draft picks in the 6-10th round range if you’ve drafted quality players in 1-5 … but to purposely punt on 3rd and 4th round implies that their round 1 and 2 picks (Seth Romero and Wil Crowe) were both going to be over slot guys. And that astounds me; Romero was kicked off his college team; how is he in a position to command more dollars than his slot? Where’s he gonna player if he doesn’t sign? Indy ball? And Crowe is a 4th year player with a TJ on his resume who I suppose could go back for a 5th collegiate season, but really that’d be flushing a crucial year of development down the tubes, plus burning a year on his surgically repaired arm … with little chance he could improve his bonus amount or draft ranking over where he got drafted this year. How are either guy demanding over-slot money?

I liken the situation to playing Fantasy sports. When your buddy in your league drafts a kicker in the 8th round you mock him mercilessly. Why? Because that same kicker was going to be there 4 rounds later and because wasting an 8th round pick on a kicker is a sign of poor team management and a lack of understanding of how fantasy works. Its the same thing wasting a 3rd rounder in the fashion the team just did.

So, frustration over punting two high draft picks so as to pay two other high draft picks more money than I think they’re worth leads me to the end of this diatribe. We’ll have our answer soon enough; if Raquet signs for a piddling amount of money (his slot value is $522,300), and if Freeman similarly signs for under-slot (he’s at $390,000) then you’ll have confirmation of the punting on these picks. I suppose both guys could sign for at or near slot, which would imply that they were worth the draft pick; if that happens i’ll be shocked.

Anyway, back to the draft class review overall. Here’s a quick table 1-40 before doing some breakdowns:

Round

Overall

Name

Position

Col/HS

College or Cmtm

State

Slot Value

1

25

Seth Romero

LHP

Col Jr

Houston

TX

2530400

2

65

Wil Crowe

RHP

Col Sr

South Carolina

SC

946500

3

103

Nick Raquet

LHP

Col Jr

William & Mary

VA

522300

4

133

Cole Freeman

2B

Col Sr

LSU

LA

390000

5

163

Brigham Hill

RHP

Col Jr

TAMU

TX

291200

6

193

Kyle Johnston

RHP

Col Jr

Texas

TX

226100

7

223

Jackson Tetreault

RHP

J2

State Col Florida Manatee

FL

178100

8

253

Jared Brashner

RHP

Col Sr

Samford

Fl

149600

9

283

Alex Troop

LHP

Col Jr

Michigan State

MI

138000

10

313

Trey Turner

RHP

Col Jr

Missouri State

MO

131300

11

343

Justin Connell

OF

HS

American Heritage School

FL

12

373

Jackson Stoeckinger

LHP

J2

Col of Central Florida

FL

13

403

Eric Senior

OF

J2

Midland Col

TX

14

433

Anthony Peroni

C

J2

Mercer County CC

NJ

15

463

Bryce Montes de Oca

RHP

Col Jr

Missouri

MO

16

493

Jake Scudder

1B

Col Sr

Kansas St U

KS

17

523

Jared Johnson

LHP

J1

Palm Beach State Col

FL

18

553

Nick Choruby

OF

Col Sr

Texas A&M U

TX

19

583

Jonathan Pryor

OF

Col Sr

Wake Forest U

NC

20

613

Jake Cousins

RHP

Col Sr

Pennsylvania

PA

21

643

Leif Strom

RHP

J2

Pierce College

WA

22

673

Nelson Galindez

LHP

HS

Haines City HS

FL

23

703

Jamori Blash

1B

J2

Cochise Col

GA

24

733

Tim Richards

SS

Col Sr

Cal State Fullerton

CA

25

763

David Smith

RHP

Col Sr

Cal St Long Beach

CA

26

793

Kameron Esthay

OF

Col Sr

Baylor U

TX

27

823

Darren Baker

SS

HS

Jesuit HS

CA

28

853

Nic Perkins

C

Col Jr

Drury University

MO

29

883

Alex Dunlap

C

Col Sr

Stanford

CA

30

913

Austin Guibor

OF

Col Jr

Fresno St U

CA

31

943

Jeremy McKinney

RHP

Col Sr

Indiana St U

IN

32

973

Phil Caulfield

2B

Col Sr

Loyola Marymount U

CA

33

1003

Adalberto Carrillo

C

Col Jr

U Southern California

CA

34

1033

Bennett Sousa

LHP

Col Jr

Virginia

VA

35

1063

Jackson Cramer

1B

Col Sr

West Virginia

WV

36

1093

Gabe Klobosits

RHP

Col Sr

Auburn

AL

37

1123

Kody Gratkowski

3B

HS

Fairhope HS

AL

38

1153

Jake Boone

SS

HS

Torrey Pines HS

CA

39

1183

Kai Nelson

OF

HS

Fieldston HS

NY

40

1213

Max Engelbrekt

LHP

Col Sr5

Oregon St U

OR

Here’s some breakdowns (note I wrote this prior to the team signing a bunch of these Juco guys plus a couple of HS guys):

So, even though the draft splits even 20/20 bats and arms its heavily tilted at the top and in the signability department towards arms. This should make for some serious carnage in the lower ends of our minor league ranks. The Auburn roster is half stocked with late-round college seniors drafted in 2016 and rising IFAs from the DSL last year; I could see some moving of those guys down to GCL as needed and a shedding of 20th-some round 2016 signees to make room for all the guys they’ve picked up this year. But the more I look at this draft, the more it looks like a one or two-player draft at the top. Is that ok? Sure; it is basically what the team did in the Lucas Giolito draft, and the industry was on record saying that the strength this year was college arms. It should be interesting to see how quickly Romero moves up the ranks.

Here’s a first look at our top 10 draft picks, or where we stand after day 2.

At the top of round 1, a last minute switch led to a surprise first name being selected: Royce Lewis went 1-1 instead of one of the two big college arms being rumored there all week; twitter reportedly had Brendan McKay rejecting an underslot deal at 1-1 and thus falling to 4th … where he’ll still get paid. Nonetheless, the top 5 ended up being the same top-5 on nearly every mock draft … just in a different order.

How about the Nats picks? Lets just say there was some back and forth among the pundits about these top 10 picks.

Round

Overall

Name

Position

Col/HS

College or Cmtm

State

Slot Value

1

25

Seth Romero

LHP

Col Jr

Houston

TX

2530400

2

65

Wil Crowe

RHP

Col SR

South Carolina

SC

946500

3

103

Nick Raquet

LHP

Col Jr

William & Mary

VA

522300

4

133

Cole Freeman

2B

Col SR

LSU

LA

390000

5

163

Brigham Hill

RHP

Col Jr

TAMU

TX

291200

6

193

Kyle Johnston

RHP

Coll Jr

Texas

TX

226100

7

223

Jackson Tetreault

RHP

J2

State Col Florida Manatee

FL

178100

8

253

Jared Brashner

RHP

Col Sr

Samford

Fl

149600

9

283

Alex Troop

LHP

Col Jr.

Michigan State

MI

138000

10

313

Trey Turner

RHP

Col Jr.

Missouri State

MO

131300

Pick by Pick: if they’re ranked on the main prospect ranking sites I like (see links at bottom):

1st Round/#25 overall: Seth Romero, LHP UHouston. (Espn #59, MLBPipeline #25, BA #27, Minorleague #29, BDR #49, 2080 #30). Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead. His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues. Prior to the spring, he was easily a top-10 talent, with early projections having him going as high as 6th overall. He’s a power-lefty; works 92-95, touches 97 and per MLB already has two 60-grade pitches. He kind of reminds you body-wise of Chad Cordero, with mechanics kind of like Drew Storen. He’s got a very quick arm, is a big-body kid who might still need some conditioning work, but whose mechanics may give him some issues later on. I don’t like the pick for the character issues; the Nats left one big college arm who I would have preferred in Alex Lange, but the guy I really liked here (Tanner Houck) went the pick before, so perhaps that sewed up the Nats choices.

2nd/#65: Wil Crowe, RHP from South Carolina. (Espn #43, MLBpipeline #44, BA #47, MinorLeague #30, BDR #185, 2080 #51): A guy who I saw in some mock drafts going to the Nats at #25 overall falls somehow to #65 overall, despite nearly every ranking system having him 20 picks higher. Crowe is a TJ survivor (aren’t they all these days?), with a 65 fastball and a couple of 55s on his other tools who was solid if unspectacular for USC this year. Big guy, big arm, physical comparison to Joe Blanton. I like this as a safe pick.

3rd/#103: Nick Raquet, LHP from William & Mary. BA #145, BDR #348. A lefty weekend starter from a bad baseball school in a small baseball conference. Raquet had good K/9 numbers, but also horrible BB/9 numbers, had an ERA in the 4s and was a non-entity on the rankings. Where is this pick coming from? He wasn’t anywhere even listed on the Virginia-only prospects lists on the various sites. A cost-savings pick? There’s still significant talent on the board, not the least of which is Tristan Beck from Stanford; is his injury worse than people thought?

4th/#133: Cole Freeman, 2B senior from LSU. BDR #429. BA #166. A senior sign, twitter reports that he’s 5’9″, has a short compact swing, can hit, has blazing speed, is high-energy and is plus-plus make-up. Sounds great; this is a fourth round pick? Sounds like an 8th rounder. Still not sure what the Nats are doing.

5th/#163: Brigham Hill, Jr RHP from TAMU. BA #346. MLB #159. BDR #171. Texas A&M’s #1/friday starter, went 8-3 with a 3.16 era in the tough SEC. Smaller guy, throws low 90s. 50s on most of his pitches, plus change up. I like a guy like this; he reminds me of Austin Voth in terms of draft pedigree and collegiate accomplishment.

6th/#193: Kyle Johnston JR RHP from Texas. BA #250, MLB #136, BDR #492. Weekend starter who bounced around roles for Texas this year but had some very solid outings against good Big12 competition. Not a ton of K/9, but two grade 60 pitches (fastball and cutter). Profiles as a reliever, both by pitch capability and by stature (6’0″ right hander). Not a bad pick here.

7th/#223: Jackson Tetreault, J2 RHP from State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota. BA #286. I’m not a BA subscriber so I can’t read the scouting report, but his peripherals at his Juco (where a few others are getting drafted) are solid. Worked as a starter, big K/9 numbers.

8th/#253: Jared Brashner. Coll Sr RHP from Samford. BA #430. We’re clearly in the senior sign territory; Brashner’s a reliever from Samford with nearly a walk an inning to go along with 46 Ks in 30 relief innings.

9th/#283: Alex Troop, Coll Jr LHP from Michigan State. BA #179 BDR #184. Solid lefty with good numbers this year. Not a bad 9th round pick, one who still rates on BA’s list.

10th/#313: Trey Turner, Coll Jr LHP from Missouri State. Unranked anywhere, limited time this year ; just 13 IP but 22 Ks in those 13 innings and a stellar BAA. Didn’t pitch after March because … he tore his UCL. So there’s your annual Nat draftee with TJ surgery.

First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown:

9 arms, 1 position player.

10 college (1 juco), zero prep.

A few picks that seem like clear money savers: Raquet, Brashner, perhaps also Freeman.

Heavy influence in the South East: 6 of the 10 picks come from Texas, Louisiana or Florida).

Conclusion: We’ve talked about the risk of Romero. I liked the Crowe pick. I question the Raquet and Freeman picks. I liked the two SEC starter picks in rounds 5 and 6, and I liked the 9th and 10th rounders too as good risks. Clearly this draft is about arms for the Nats after picking mostly positional players in 2016. No screwing around with prep players; they drafted a bunch of college guys to try to get them to the majors more quickly, likely to fill voids coming up in the next couple of years.