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An anonymous reader writes "A privately employed solar scientist named Pete Riley estimates there's a 12 percent chance of a massive solar storm comparable to the Carrington Event in 1859 which resulted in breathtaking aurorae across the United States and other temperate regions of the globe. The electromagnetic surge from the 1859 event caused failures of telegraph systems across Europe and North America. A similar storm today could knock out power grids, GPS and communication satellites, data centers, transportation systems, and building and plumbing infrastructures and wreak $1 trillion or more of economic damage in the first year alone, according to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences."

Actually we don't know if it is the solar maximum... The sun is very periodic but it is still a bit unpredictable as to when exactly the periods start and stop. The only way to know is if in 2013 it shows the telltale slowdown of the decline cycle (that is, if we are still here...)

Actually we don't know if it is the solar maximum... The sun is very periodic but it is still a bit unpredictable as to when exactly the periods start and stop. The only way to know is if in 2013 it shows the telltale slowdown of the decline cycle (that is, if we are still here...)

Interesting, this is the same strategy employed by economists. It seems most of them won't recognize an economic bubble when they're in one... but after the "telltale slowdown" is becomes extremely obvious in hind-sight.

Which is strange, because I knew we were in a bubble while it was going on. When the houses around me started selling for $150,000 more than I bought mine for in a matter of a couple years, with no real underlying changes to the economy, it was pretty darn obvious there was a bubble.

Economists aren't that dumb, they're either being hopelessly optimistic that economics has suddenly discovered perpetual motion, or they were just keeping their mouths shut lest they be the guy who went down in history as the one popping the bubble and starting the inevitable recession.

Or possibly:(c) Their bosses are telling them to shut up and play nice because there are bets currently on the table.(d) The media mostly only reports the "up, up, up" stories and not the serious critics.

IIRC there actually is a psychological, medically acknowledged, syndrome that has to dowith giving up on prosperous concepts/enterprises. In layman's terms it describes optimismin a more elaborate language, though it also describes gambler's addiction at some point.

IIRC there actually is a psychological, medically acknowledged, syndrome that has to dowith giving up on prosperous concepts/enterprises. In layman's terms it describes optimismin a more elaborate language, though it also describes gambler's addiction at some point.

Can't remember where I have read about it though..

It could have been the 150 year old book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" which basically cited the many self-induced economic bubbles/busts up to that point in history, and has been a blueprint for every one of them since. What's interesting is how every time the pattern repeats we swear that a) we didn't "really" see it coming with enough foresight to stop it and that b) we are sure as hell never going to let it happen again. Those two complete fallacies are the cornerstone of our tragic existence.

Is it really that surprising when economists (at least the ones that speak in public and which we see) are merely the modern version of astrologists, soothsayers, and chicken entrails readers? The vast majority of them are paid to make shit up in a way that favors their patron. Every government out there has a staff of them on hand for rationalizing the policy of the day.

It's their job to sell the current propaganda, until that position becomes too untenable to retain credibility.

The Economist talked about a housing bubble in 2004. They showed that, worldwide house prices were about twice what is normally justified by rentals, and predicted that if nothing else happened, it would take 14 years for rents to catch up - so don't expect your house to increase in value for that long. Of course then the money-pumpers got involved and we all know what happened next.

Make multiple backups of everything you care about, using a mix of different media types. Store your backups in geographically diverse locations, in hardened containers, preferably some of them subterranean. Of course, you're already doing that anyhow, right? Past that, your PC becomes significantly less useful if major communication grids are down/damaged, at least if you like the Internet.

Store your backups in geographically diverse locations, in hardened containers, preferably some of them subterranean. Of course, you're already doing that anyhow, right?

Storing back-ups in hardened containers in subterranean bunkers? No, I'm not, and somehow I doubt most other people here are either.

Backing things up safely, securely and frequently is surprisingly hard for individuals to do given all the technical wonders we have in the world today.

(In case anyone's knee is jerking, please read the actual terms and check the actual reliability stats of any Internet-based back-up service you're about to recommend before you post it. Chances are, you'll never make the post.)

Turn it off when you're not using it and disconnect it from power and communications (eg disconnect the power cord and network cable). Since if something Bad Happened, it's likely going to come in through the AC or in through the DSL/Cable/Sat modem - same as any other power surge.

In these storms, what happens is that long lines (data and power transmission) resonate more or less with the "fun" and so you get powerful AC currents induced into them. The smaller wires in your peripherals and inside the computer are too small (so they resonate too high frequency) and so shouldn't be directly vulnerable. It's those large AC voltages coming in from those long lines that release the magic smoke.

Yep. Keep in mind we usually know such a storm is coming with a day or so of notice - usually the solar ejecta is moving far slower than light, so we see the flare before the charged particles affect us.

Yes. I saw a documentary on the history channel about this. According to the program, the best protection is to get two sticks of Hazel, and use them to douse for ley lines near your house. Any device within 50 meters of a ley line should be protected using a conical cosmic ray deflector, which should be gently placed on top of the gadget, with the tip pointing skyward (don't point it at the ground, you'll just wake up the sleeping aliens!). Be warned that this won't fully protect your touchscreen devices though. There's something odd about capacitive devices, which will require your pet cat to be earthed at all times before they are fully protected. Those cuddly critters are serious conductors of cosmic rays. I've also gone to the extent of hanging some garlic on my front door too. Not sure what that does, but I figured it couldn't hurt....

Screw that, don't buy into this so-called 'conical cosmic ray deflector', which is probably some sort of fraudulent device.

Everyone knows that only Real Brazilian Power Crystals(tm) can actually help with this. Even the FDA would not deny that it is possible in English to have said that these crystals were very efficacious for dealing with solar storms and rheumatism.

I somehow can't believe that destroying trillions of dollars worth of real goods/ wealth is going to make us better off. but hey keep listening to the Keynesians. they predicted the crash.... oh wait, they didn't. they explained the crash... Oh wait, they didn't do that either. they have since fixed the crash with the50k plus per American that they prescribed.... oh wait, that didn't work either.

That's the broken window fallacy [wikipedia.org]. It would immediately suck $1Trillion out of the economy that would have been spent other ways, it would prevent a lot of useful work from being done while the infrastructure was down, and it would most likely be rebuilt in a crappy, haphazard way, not in some nice, well-designed way that would make everything better.

Has plumbing really become dependent on electronic control systems? Or does this phenomenon somehow affect gravity too?

Plumbing consists of pipes running for long distances in straight lines (i.e. antennas). Magnetic storms can cause currents to run through these pipes resulting in electrical damage. In addition, for buried pipes, the magnetic storm can cause their relative voltage to shift, resulting in massive corrosion. This is of particular concern with respect to oil and gas pipelines.

Has plumbing really become dependent on electronic control systems? Or does this phenomenon somehow affect gravity too?

Rivers will still flow, if that's what you are talking about. And if you have an elevated storage tank or around your house, you'll be alright for a while. But municipal water systems require electrical power to clean water, pressurize the pipe network, operate distribution valves, and treat sewage. Out in the boonies most folks have a well, which generally requires electricity, too.

I would think that electronically controlled sewage treatment plants are at risk. Most people don't think about where their poo goes, but once it starts going nowhere, it will pile up very quick for communities.

I would think that electronically controlled sewage treatment plants are at risk. Most people don't think about where their poo goes, but once it starts going nowhere, it will pile up very quick for communities.

You should ask Japan how effective the "economic stimulus" from their earthquake/tsunami has been working out for them. Or ask Thailand about their floods. Or ask Florida about how much good old Hurricane Andrew pumped up their economy.

I mean, if your post were modded Funny instead of Insightful that would be one thing...

Do you know how much space a single hour of hires porn takes when converted into a flip-book? And how am I supposed to flip said book while perusing it in the intended manner? True preppers stash at least one concubine together with the dried food and the ammo.

This won't directly break your car or your computer. It affects long runs of conductive cable.

It will break power distribution and telecom. It might break your computer if it's plugged in, but absolutely will not break your computer if it is not plugged in. Likewise with cars. If you own an electric car, just hope that it's unplugged when this happens.

If you live in the UK, South Africa or Australia, then just turn the wall switch of your satellite off, but if you live in the USA or Europe, then please unplug the lead from the wall and don't forget to roll up the 30,000km power cord...

Nope - because satellites don't get all the protections of being in the atmosphere. They get raw solar radiation.

Down here in the dirt, it's only the (relatively) low frequency stuff that makes it through - and that's the stuff that long runs of wire pick up (or any long conductor - metallic piping could potentially pick it up too)

If they are lower in orbit, they are still at risk - since the EM of the Earth actually focuses the incoming radiation into bands/layers that the satellite might pass through. Think "ant under a magnifying glass".

Actually, any electronic device can blow without it being plugged into an outlet. Electronics can receive high voltage from electro magnetic waves in the air, which can overload capacitors. There are already devices on the market that use similar technology to charge electronics without wires. Not to mention the effects an EMP would have on magnetic media, such as Hard Drives, Tapes, SSD/Flash memory. I'm sure if the earth was exposed to a strong enough EMP, it would take out 90% of electronics.

"The E3 component is very different from the other two major components of nuclear EMP. The E3 component of the pulse is a very slow pulse, lasting tens to hundreds of seconds, that is caused by the nuclear detonation heaving the Earth's magnetic field out of the way, followed by the restoration of the magnetic field to its natural place. The E3 component has similarities to a geomagnetic storm caused by a very severe solar flare. Like a geomagnetic storm, E

You're going to get some odd waveforms coming in - the UPS will only save you if it isolates the load instead of just switches to a battery. The surge protector isn't going to help much. Those are meant to suppress "lengthy" transients and overvolts, quick spikes can still break shit but not pop the protector.

Electrically, surge protectors are basically two diodes back-to-back. They'll provide some protection - hopefully the crucial miliseconds it'll take for a circuit breaker to trip. Not enough for a really nasty surge, but better than nothing.

I've heard every other year that there's going to be a devastating solar storm that will change electronics forever, or whatnot.
I'm almost as tired of hearing this as I am of hearing the constant "We solved the energy crisis!" stories.

The difference is that this sort of thing has happened before [wikipedia.org], and not that long ago (1859).

"Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases even shocking telegraph operators. Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire."

The world was much less wired in 1859 than it is today. At a minimum, the power grid would be fried for months. I certainly wouldn't want to live somewhere like the Southwest part of the US, where if the power is gone you can't get water and the gas pumps stop working, so you can't go somewhere else.

Note that the wires in 1859 weren't very well protected against such things. Our current power/telephony system would have survived the 1859 event much better than it did in 1859. There were still coming to terms with the idea of AC current in 1859. We've learned a lot since then.

OK, I throw the BS flag all over this one. I've been in this business (space weather) for over 40 years, and one of the biggest problems in the whole field are these "OMG the F-ing SKY is FALLING" pronouncements from self-proclaimed space weather experts (or NASA scientists, which is just sad). What this guy has done is a typical "lies, damn lies, and statistics" analysis of the worst sort, and he even kinda admits this with the caveat at the end of TFA's abstract in Space Weather. This is not to say that a big Carrington-magnitude storm came along it wouldn't cause havoc, it most certainly will, but there's only been one of these in our recorded history. That seems to fall well outside the realm of useable predictability. It's in a class of problems the weather service folks who try to predict 100-year floods know all too well. If you only see one instance of something in your record, at best you can say that you get one of those beasts every record-length/2 years (if that). This guy is just blowing smoke to advertise his business.

There was an event in the 1920's (less than the 1859 event) and another in the 1990's (less than the 1920's event but it took down pieces of the Quebec grid). Doesn't do anything to help measure the frequency of the 1859 level events. Also, it kind of doesn't matter, since power facilities like the one I work at are required to prepare for things like the "maximum possible flood" not a "500 year flood". If your sample set has at least one of these, and we can't quantify it to be say less than a 1 in 10000 - and we certainly can't - then we should be working on this problem. Not as if the sky is falling, but we've been working on changing out some stuff in my plant for a decade, so we definitely should get on it, since remediation is going to take a long time, and the consequences would be very bad.

Well, it is dubious at best to put a number on it like the guy did, but we know for certain that a) Carrington events happen and b) our infrastructure is not set up to handle it. Given the possible catastrophic consequences, it is at least prudent to consider how to handle such an event.

Your analogy is like many businesses who fail to backup their data because they think a disaster isn't going to happen to them. We've only been using computers for the past 50 years, and computers today are far more susceptible to damage than ever before. Everyone ignores the danger until it hits them, happens all the time.

So do our financial institutions take measures to keep our finance data safe?Because if we are really talking about every single HDD on earth being destroyed normal data protection techniques are not going to work.And if that actually happened I don't think civilization would survive.

I watched an interesting PBS special on the Amish a couple nights ago. It gave me good insight into their lifestyle choices.
During this show I thought about the "2012 problem". If any one would survive a shutdowns of electricity and electronics, these people will However, these people are pacifists an might not do well with armed bands that would arise in the apocalypse.

There's a lot to be said for contact breaker ignition. Of course, diesels are even better. I've driven a diesel car with no functioning electrical system of any kind (although I don't recommend it due to the absence of brake lights).

The scariest part was getting it started. Yes, sure, it'll push start but until the engine has been running for 15 seconds (big heavy old Citroen CX 25DTR Turbo) there is no hydraulic pressure for the steering or braking system... Better hope the handbrake will stop it before the back wall of the yard does!

What happens is you get large induced currents/voltages in transmission lines (power, cable etc) which smoke things connected to them. This happens because they resonate with the solar radiation.

Small shit like the wires and traces inside of your car resonates at far too high a frequency for that to happen.

As for GPS etc - those die because they are in orbit, either outside the majority of the earth's EM field's protection - or their path happens to make that same protection their death-sentence as it tends to concentrate the radiation into distinct bands/layers.

The sun would still be the sun, and the GPS satellite would be the ant. The earth's EM field would be the magnifying glass. Poof.

You run into issues when they are resonant (or near resonant) because that allows standing waves to form - and the stuff that makes it in through the magnetosphere is the lower frequency (longer wavelength) stuff.

Wouldn't the amount of electronics in today's cars render them vulnerable as well?

Or do we only have to worry about EMP in that regard?

Either way, the production and transport of gasoline will be impacted as well, obviously. I wouldn't be surprised if the government nationalized all the gasoline reserves just to make sure they've got enough to power the Humvees that would surely be dispersed all over the United States in this scenario. I imagine Martial Law would be declared nationally pretty soon after a

Haven't you seen War of the Worlds? Even gasoline fueled cars will be affected. Except, of course, the vehicle of the one mechanic on Earth who remembers the solenoid. But don't worry, he can be out-acted by an eight year old.

I could be wrong (I wasn't ever a huge fan of studying physics) but from my basic engineering physics class, wouldn't a Faraday cage block this?

Yeah, that's what most hardening entails. For example,your hard drive is encased fully by metal, but that little circuit board underneath it isn't. Another thing that I have no way of speculating on is just how much energy will be raining down, it could just vaporize the Faraday cage if there's enough energy behind it. That would be intense for sure.

"This kind of event is going to knock anything out that can conduct electricity. The telegraph lines overloaded and caught fire in 1859. Your data isn't safe, if it's on a hard drive, CD, SSDs, the cloud etc."

This kind of event is going to knock anything out that can conduct electricity. The telegraph lines overloaded and caught fire in 1859. Your data isn't safe, if it's on a hard drive, CD, SSDs, the cloud etc.