Climate Change: An Unhealthy World?

Researchers issue warning

Action Points

Global climate change will play a role in the exacerbation of cardiovascular, respiratory, and infectious disease and will have catastrophic effects on public health, according to an international commission.

The direct effects of climate change through heat and drought are already being felt, with less evidence about the current effects of cold, heavy precipitation and flooding, and severe storms.

Global climate change will not only play a role in the exacerbation of cardiovascular, respiratory, and infectious disease, but it will have catastrophic effects on public health, according to a new special report from an international committee.

Nick Watts, of the Institute for Global Health at University College London (UCL), and colleagues reported that the direct effects of climate change are already being felt today, especially through heats and drought, with inconsistent evidence for cold, heavy precipitation and flooding, and severe storms.

But the indirect impact of these changes can have far-reaching implications on overall population health and even the stability of countries, they wrote in a commissioned paper from The Lancet.

"Climate Change is a medical emergency -- it thus demands an emergency response, using the technologies available right now," said Co-Chair Professor Hugh Montgomery, director of the UCL Institute for Human Health and Performance in a statement. "Under such circumstances, no doctor would consider a series of annual case discussions and aspirations adequate, yet this is exactly how the global response to climate change is proceeding."

Researchers examined studies on various incidences of climate change from 2011 to 2014 and found all available studies on heat (n=14), as well as the majority of the nine studies on drought (n=6) to have a strong association with climate change.

However, out of 14 studies on flooding, the evidence was still uncertain (n=10). There was also inconsistent evidence in three studies on prolonged cold (n=2), and all studies on severe storms (n=4). Still, they cautioned that aspects of climate change could impact future health, even if the evidence was inconsistent.

"We must not assume that individual climate tail risks will be uncorrelated," the authors wrote. "In complex systems, individual events might become more highly correlated when events place the whole system under stress."

They determined that the impact to health will arise out of the effects of climate change:

Cardiovascular disease due to ozone increase and particulate matter pollution from heat waves

Potential mental health disorders arising from relocation due to flooding, which can cause anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder

The authors note that these effects would cause a chain reaction. They cited an example where potential flooding leads to mass migration, overcrowding, poverty, and even ensuing violent conflict. Then they examined how changes in water quality, land use, and air pollution born out of climate change could potentially have more dramatic impacts on public health. This could potentially lead to shifts in:

Age and gender balance

Health status

Socioeconomic status

Social capital

Public health infrastructure

Mobility and conflict status

Potential Solutions

The commission proposes several health-related and public health solutions for this global problem for governments around the world to implement in the next 5 years.

"These strategies will also reduce pressures on national health budgets, delivering potentially large cost savings, and enable investments in stronger, more resilient health systems," the authors wrote.

Transitioning to cities "that support healthier lifestyles," which could reduce rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, obesity, mental illness, and respiratory disease through less air pollution and greenhouse gasses

Investing in research about climate change as it relates to public health

In addition, the authors cite their vision of a "decarbonized global economy," especially for lower and middle income countries, which could potentially lead to potentially reducing healthcare costs by avoiding the burden of disease and enhancing economic productivity.

The commission encourages international agreements and cooperation from governments to make this happen. The authors affirmed their commitment "to provide expertise in implementing policies that mitigate climate change and promote public health, and to monitor progress over the next 15 years" by releasing reports every 2 years entitled "Countdown to 2030: Global Health and Climate Action."

"The health community has responded to many grave threats to health in the past. It took on entrenched interests such as the tobacco industry and led the fight against HIV/AIDS, " Co-Chair Professor Peng Gong, from Tsinghua University, Beijing, said in a statement. "Now is the time for us to lead the way in responding to another great threat to human and environmental health of our generation."

Watts works as a consultant for WHO's Department of Public Health, Environmental, and Social Determinants of Health, and is the Director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance.

Other authors disclosed conflicts of interest, which are available in the full paper.

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