Russia Interest Rate 2003-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 14 percent. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 6.75 percent from 2003 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010. Interest Rate in Russia is reported by the Central Bank of Russia.

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides - Russia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Content for - Russia Interest Rate - was last refreshed on Tuesday, March 31, 2015.

Russia Cuts Key Rate to 14%

Russian central bank lowered its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100 bps to 14 percent on March 13th, as "balance of risks is still shifted towards a more significant cooling of the economy". It is the second straight rate cut.

Excerpts from Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

This decision will contribute to the reduction of these risks without posing an additional threat of increased inflationary pressure. According to Bank of Russia forecast, the current monetary policy and low economic activity will be conducive to the slowing of annual consumer price growth to 9% over the year (March 2016 on March 2015) and to the target of 4% in 2017. As inflation risks abate, the Bank of Russia will be ready to continue cutting the key rate.

As of 10 March, annual consumer price growth rate stood at 16.7%. Core inflation increased to 16.8% in February, while monthly consumer price growth declined from 3.9% in January to 2.2% in February. The high level of annual inflation is caused primarily by the supply-side factors, i.e. the ruble depreciation and external trade restrictions. Their impact is short-term and will be exhausted before the end of 2015. At the same time, demand-side inflation factors’ dynamics show a pronounced downward trend. A surge in consumer activity at the end of last year was temporary. January 2015 saw a continued fall in real wage growth and a sharp decline in consumer expenditures which exerts a restraining influence on the prices of goods and services.

Structural factors continue to exert a restraining influence on economic growth, however, its slowing is becoming more and more cyclical. Weak economic activity will be conducive to inflation reduction. Further decrease in output is expected amid persistently low oil prices and foreign capital market inaccessibility for Russian borrowers. Fixed capital investments will continue to contract due to high prices for the imported investment goods, deterioration in companies’ financial performance, tighter lending conditions, and high economic uncertainty. The labour market will adjust to new conditions largely through real wage decrease and part-time employment, which along with a slowdown in retail lending growth will result in lower consumer demand. The ruble depreciation will partially mitigate the negative impact of changed external conditions, raising the competitiveness of Russian goods and containing imports along with slack domestic demand. As a result, only net exports will make a positive contribution to output growth. According to Bank of Russia estimates, GDP will fall by 3.5-4.0% in 2015.

Thus, the current economic situation sets a trend towards inflation reduction. According to Bank of Russia forecasts, monthly consumer price growth will continue slowing down. At the same time, given the short-term factors and due to the low base effect, annual inflation will grow with a peak in the second quarter of 2015. A slowdown in annual consumer price growth will be conducive to inflation expectations decrease. According to Bank of Russia forecast, annual inflation will fall to about 9% over the year and to the target of 4% in 2017.

High inflation expectations, review of planned increases in administered prices and tariffs, budget policy easing, and also possible accelerated growth in nominal wages inter alia in the budget sector, are the key risks for inflation dynamics. As the said risks abate, the Bank of Russia will be ready to continue cutting the key rate.

Russia Cuts Key Rate to 15%
Central bank of Russia surprisingly cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 200 bps to 15 percent in January, saying inflation is expected to fall in mid-2015 while the economy is cooling. The move was quite unexpected and follows a 650 bps increase in December. Published on 2015-01-30

Russia Raises Key Rate to 17%
Central Bank of Russia hiked its benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points to 17 percent, effective December 16th. It was the biggest increase since 1998 default, aimed at limiting ruble depreciation and inflation risks.
Published on 2014-12-15