NCAA Basketball Real-time Probabilities

This blog has been a little slow lately because of preparation for the 2009 season. It will be more updated for 2009 soon.

I want to point out now an awesome application at Advanced NFL Stats for the NCAA tournament. It shows a graph for each game with the current probability that either team will win. It's hard to describe, but you can check it out here: Live tournament win probability.

The team I picked to win it all, Memphis, almost blew it. You can see in the time-series win probability that most of the game they had a below 50% chance of winning until the last few minutes.