Heat-Shield study shows that rising temperatures will affect the health and productivity of workers in Europe as well as in the world’s hottest regions.

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We are hot, we are tired, and we work less. Rising temperatures caused by climate change not only threaten to destroy many of the world’s ecosystems on which animal and human life depend, but heat increases in the workplace will also lead to a significant drop in economic productivity.

Ongoing studies into the impact of rising temperatures on various economic sectors suggest that the productivity reduction could be up to 25 per cent in some cases.

The project is examining the way increases in temperature will affect the health and productivity of workers in agriculture, transport, construction, manufacturing and tourism across Europe.

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If you want politicians and others with influence to do something about the problem of rising temperatures, you also need to understand its economic aspects.

Lars Nybo, deputy head, Department of Sport and Nutrition, University of Copenhagen

Green aspect

“When we talk about climate change, the focus is often on the “green” aspect of what will happen in future,” Nybo says in the online ScienceNordic journal.

“But if you want politicians and others with influence to do something about the problem of rising temperatures, you also need to understand its economic aspects.

“This is what our research focuses on, and our initial results show that climate change could cost up to 25 per cent of the productivity of some companies.”

Economic productivity will drop not only in parts of the world already experiencing extreme heat – such as southern Europe, the Middle East and the southern states of the US – but also in countries and companies in northern Europe, which could see big drops in economic output.

Not surprisingly, results from Heat-Shield studies show the sectors hardest hit by rising temperatures will be those that involve outdoor manual work, as well as indoor work where there is little or no access to air conditioning.

“In the EU, these kinds of companies make up to 40 per cent to 50 per cent of both the workforce and gross domestic product,” Nybo says.

“If productivity in these sectors falls by five per cent it will have a big impact.”

Nybo says that previous estimates suggesting that rising global temperatures will result in declines in overall global productivity of between one and two per cent were too conservative.

Sustainable solutions

“It’s paradoxical when, for example, Donald Trump says that it’s too expensive to do something about climate change, when we see that it’s going to be too expensive if we don’t face the problems,” Nybo says.

“Switching to greener, sustainable solutions may require an investment, but there are clear, economic incentives in the long run.”