A year ago François Hollande would have thought himself lucky to have finished third in the race for the Socialist party's nomination for presidential candidate. He was coming last in the polls. He was easily outshone by the undeclared frontrunner Dominique Strauss-Kahn and nor did he stand much chance against his successor as party boss, the po-faced but competent Martine Aubry. A year on, his rivals are dust, and Mr Hollande – several kilos lighter, better suited, and with fewer wisecracks – has just walked off with a stunning victory. Not only did he beat Ms Aubry by over 373,000 votes but, this being the first time the party held an open primary, some 2.8 million people participated in the election. Too easily dismissed for his Billy Bunterish qualities, Mr Hollande is the undisputed champion of his party.

Unity has not always been a strong point for the Socialists. Lionel Jospin's claim to be the party's candidate in 2002 was so disputed that many on the left voted for the Cameronian François Bayrou. This act of defiance in the first round of voting was supposed to send a message to the party leadership. Unfortunately someone got the wattage wrong. The electric shock was so strong, it let the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen through to the second round. In 2008 Mr Hollande's former partner Ségolène Royal launched herself on a profoundly misjudged trip, in which she floated free from her party in a balloon fuelled by her own ego. Compared to either, Mr Hollande now has the best chance to become president in a generation.

His opponent Nicolas Sarkozy has come up recently in the polls but, even so, 63% of those asked still disapprove of his performance. This is a substantial, perhaps insurmountable hurdle to jump for a man who has made so many enemies in his own party, let alone outside it. Mr Sarkozy will attack Mr Hollande for being a nonentity, for not having held a single ministerial post, for being a perpetual backroom boy unaccustomed to the pressure of making real decisions. But Mr Sarkozy will find it more difficult to convince France that his own record as leader stands scrutiny. The bombing of Libya does not cut it, and nor will saving the euro.

A president whose name will for ever be associated with his love of bling-bling jewellery, his £10,000 Rolex, and millionaire friends who say that anyone not wearing such a watch by the age of 50 is a failure, is ill-placed to claim custodianship of the low-paid and unemployed. A rightwing tenancy of the Élysée Palace lasting 17 years has left an enormous appetite for change. By not pretending to be France's saviour, but a normal guy grappling with its challenges, Mr Hollande deserves to succeed where his more arrogant predecessors have failed.