Week 8 Playoff Scenarios: North 2, Group 4

Only one WCTC-area team is on the inside of the playoff bubble, but they’ll square off with the other area team trying to get in this Friday night.

We’re talking about Colonia and Woodbridge here.

The Patriots are 10th overall in the North, Group 4 supersection, and 7th in North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 4. (They’re actually tied with Barringer, but have the tiebreaker based on no head-to-head matchup, no common opponents, but the Patriots having a higher Born number.)

Colonia should be in no matter what happens Friday night. Seven teams would have to jump the Patriots, and that’s not happening. They won’t make it into the top four either, so they are going to open on the road. It’s just a question of who they will face, and will they avoid the top seed? That could be either Phillipsburg or Randolph. Either way, a win against the Barrons shold keep them out of the 8th spot.

Bottom Line: Colonia is in the bottom four.

Woodbridge, meanwhile, is 18th with an 18.6 UPR, just 2 UPR out of a playoff spot behind 16th place Barringer (16.6). Orange is between them at 17.2 UPR.

A win would drive their power point average up from 10.25 to 11.55 and bring their UPR to 17.8, just 0.8 behind Barringer. They would then need to jump two spots in Born rank. They need 2.5 Born points to catch Barringer, which is two spots ahead. That means the Barrons need to beat the spread against Colonia by 15. They’re already an 11.9 point underdog. Rounding to 12, that means Woodbridge would need to win by a field goal assuming no movement by Barringer or anyone else. Certainly, that’s a possible task.

Meanwhile, 4-3 Barringer plays 4-3 West Orange this Friday night, and is a 3.1 point underdog. If Barringer can cover that spread (which means basically winning outright in any way, shape or form would to it) they would go up in Born points, making it tougher for Woodbridge to catch them.

Basically, the more Woodbridge wins by Friday night, the harder they’ll make it for Barringer to keep up.

Also, add Roxbury to the mix. They’re behind Woodbridge in UPR and likely won’t make it in, but in Born rank they stand between Woodbridge and Barringer. They could throw a wrench in the proceedings as well.

Bottom Line: Woodbridge needs to win to get in, but may need some outside help.