That means higher prices at the supermarket to go along with pain at the pump that’s been getting worse in recent months.

With wages moving up at a crawl, few people will escape the impact. Poorer people, who tend to spend larger percentages of their incomes on food and energy, may be hit hardest, as are people living on fixed incomes.

But the hit for consumers may end up being manageable. While prices have risen in the last couple of months, inflation remains at low levels. And while many goods are rising in price, prices for services remain subdued.

“I don’t think we’re talking about an extreme squeeze here,” said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight, a research and forecasting firm in suburban Boston.

Moreover, inflation does not seem poised to roar out of control, 1970s style, Gault said. The U.S. economy is still suffering from broad-based weakness, with plenty of idle capacity and an unemployment rate at 9 percent. That’s not an environment in which many companies will be keen to raise prices.

“An inflationary spiral can only take root if wage inflation accelerates, which we don’t expect,” Gault said. Instead, rising prices are squeezing consumers “and will restrain the growth in consumer spending volumes.”

Simmering so far

Inflation has generally remained tame in recent decades.

That changed in 2008, as oil prices spiked to record levels and other prices rose. The 12-month change in the U.S. consumer price index rose to 5.6 percent in July 2008, the highest such figure since 1991.

But price hikes went into reverse when the U.S. recession went from bad to catastrophic in the latter part of 2008.

Inflation decelerated again in much of last year. In November, the Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion program to buy longer-term U.S. Treasury debt. The move was seen as an attempt to strengthen the economy and ward off deflation or a sustained decrease in prices.

The overall consumer price index accelerated in December and January, fueled by food and energy prices. Still, the CPI rose only 1.6 percent during the 12 months ending in January.

“The run-up in commodities prices is, to an important degree, a reflection of the recovery in the global economy,” said Johnson. “We’re in the early stages of seeing the changes in price trends that ultimately will lead the Fed to begin withdrawing its exceptional accommodation.”

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been more subdued. It ticked up slightly last month, but it rose only 1 percent during the 12 months ending in January.

Fed officials say they are watching price changes closely.

“Clearly, consumers are going to feel food prices directly, and they’re going to feel gasoline prices directly,” said Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in comments last week. “The question is, in the broader market basket of what people buy and services they are supplied with, will prices increase? Not clear yet.”

More, but how much?

Consumers will also be watching closely.

Food commodity prices have been rallying, buoyed by healthy demand and weather problems that have damaged crops in many countries. Corn, wheat and soybean prices reached their highest levels since 2008 this month, although they pulled back a bit Tuesday.

“When commodities prices rise, the first place your budget gets hit is in the supermarket,” said Harry Balzer, vice president of NPD Group, a consumer market research firm. “People are going to walk into a supermarket and they’re going to walk out with fewer groceries for $100. And they‘re going to say, ‘What happened?’”

Clothing prices may also be set to rise. The price of cotton has more than doubled over the last year.

Then there’s the rising price of oil, which tends to ricochet through the supply chain given its central role in the economy. Fueled by political unrest in oil-producing Libya, the price of oil has jumped this week. Regular gasoline in Dallas is already going for more than $3 a gallon, up from $2.68 three months ago, according to AAA Texas.

Consumer goods prices depend on more than raw commodities. They’re also affected by labor, transportation and other costs. So while soaring commodity prices put pressure on consumer prices, the extent of the impact remains uncertain.

It’s also unclear just how aggressively companies can pass on the burden of rising prices to consumers, given the weakness in today’s economy.

“As the cost of goods goes up because the prices of commodities have increased, consumers are going to eat some of it,” said Ed Fox, a retail and consumer behavior expert at Southern Methodist University. “But I think retailers are going to eat some of that cost, too.”