Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis

Brian Burke joined the Leafs in November of 2008. When he joined the Leafs he insisted he has no interest in a 5 year rebuild and expected he could make the team competitive much sooner. Let’s evaluate how Burke has done in his tenure as GM of the Maple Leafs. 2007-08 2011-12 GAA 3.08 (27th) 3.03 (27th) SV% 89.3 (29th) 90.1 (24th) GFA 2.74 (11th) 2.98 (6th) PP 17.8% (15th) 20.6% (4th) PK 78.0% (30th) 74.4% (30th) Points 83 (12th in east) 89 (projected, 9th) Their overall offense is slightly better but their defense is the same sad defense we

Not sure what led me to look into this but I took a look at poor defensive teams making the playoffs in the eastern conference. Over the past 3 seasons there have been just 6 teams to make the playoffs in the eastern conference with goals against averages greater than 2.80. They are: Tampa Bay Lightning (2010-11): 2.80 Ottawa Senators (2009-10): 2.80 Pittsburgh Penguins (2009-10): 2.82 Montreal Canadiens (2008-09): 2.88 Washington Capitals (2008-09): 2.89 Ottawa Senators (2007-08): 2.92 Over the past 4 seasons there have been a total of 26 teams with gaa’s above 2.80 and just 6 of those

There has been a lot of talk over the last 24 hours about the possibility of the Maple Leafs trading Luke Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers for James van Riemsdyk? Personally, I’d seriously consider it and probably do it, but lets take a look at the numbers. Luke Schenn HARO+ HARD+ FenHARO+ FenHARD+ Ozone% 2011-12 1.19 0.85 0.94 0.83 45.7% 2010-11 1.05 0.89 1.02 0.94 51.1% 2009-10 1.19 0.85 1.05 0.96 51.7% 2008-09 0.97 0.82 1.06 0.89 53.2% For those who don’t know what these numbers are they are my all-encompassing (mostly) hockey rating stats. HARO stands for Hockey Analysis Rating

There is a post over at Backhand Shelf today that lists 10 backup goalies that have out performed their #1 counterparts. It is an interesting read but it may be a perfect example of how simple statistics don’t tell the whole story. The first pair of goalies on the list are the Bruins Tukka Rask vs Tim Thomas. Backup: Tuukka Rask (10-4-1, 1.59 GAA, .945 SV%) Starter: Tim Thomas (17-7-0, 1.99 GAA, .938 SV%) Now both goalies have exceptionally good numbers but on the surface you would probably conclude that Rask has superior numbers to Thomas and on the surface

So we found out over Christmas that Ron Wilson got his wish and got a new contract. With that the onus of blame for any failures this Leaf team has now clearly falls on Brian Burke’s shoulders. Specifically, I am talking about the Leafs horrid penalty kill. Ron Wilson was one of, if not the, top paid coach in the NHL. He is paid like one of the best coaches in the NHL and he was given a contract extension so clearly Brian Burke doesn’t believe Ron Wilson is the reason for the Leafs PK failures. So, if Ron Wilson

This will be the final part of my unplanned 3-part series on who is good and who is not on the current Leafs team. The first was about the penalty kill and the second was defensively. Today we look at the players offensively. The Defensemen Player Name GFA FenF20 Ozone% DION PHANEUF 2.4 15.22 60.2% KEITH AULIE 2.25 14.24 61.9% JOHN-MICHAEL LILES 2.79 13.85 46.1% CARL GUNNARSSON 2.1 13.42 56.1% CODY FRANSON 2.37 13.2 47.2% JAKE GARDINER 2.25 12.79 54.3% LUKE SCHENN 2.49 12 47.3% MIKE KOMISAREK 2.82 10.95 40.8% Included in the table above are goals for average (goals

Yesterday I took a look at the Leafs players on the PK to see who has seen good result and who has seen bad results when they have been on the ice. Today I do the same thing but look at 5v5 situations from the defensive side of things to see if there is any consistency between 5v5 and the PK. The Goalies Player Name GAA SV% JAMES REIMER 1.41 94.6% JONAS GUSTAVSSON 2.58 91.3% BEN SCRIVENS 2.82 90.6% Interestingly, this is the exact opposite as we saw on the PK where Reimer had the worst save percentage and Scrivens

Considering the Leafs gave up another power play goal last night at a critical moment in the game (allowed Carolina to tie the game late) I thought I toss out some individual numbers for you to see who we can blame. Now before we get to the numbers I need to caution you that these numbers are based on extremely small sample sizes so they need to be reviewed in that context. These are also only 4v5 numbers so no 3v5 or 3v4 situations are included. The Goalies Goalie GA SA SV% GAA SCRIVENS 3 28 89.3% 5.01 GUSTAVSSON 12

The Leafs have played 29 games so far this season, or just over one third of their season. For the most part it has been relatively good start to the season. Kessel has led the league in goals and points for most of the season, Lupul has been close behind, and the team has generally been fairly comfortably in a playoff spot. But in reality, the Leafs are a long way from being a contender. The teams offense has been quite good. They are scoring goals at about a 3 goals per game pace which ranks them 6th in the

Gabe Desjardins of Arctic Ice Hockey asks the question about whether a player can influence his teammates shooting percentage. To answer this question he took a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins shooting percentages with and without Mario Lemieux. The conclusion: I’d posit that Lemieux’s playmaking contribution is about as large as we’re going to consistently find – something on the order of 7-8% – and we can use it to bound the impact that a player can truly have on the quality of his teammates’ scoring chances. Since I have the numbers handy I figured I’d take a look at

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Welcome to HockeyAnalysis.com, where I strive to get a better understanding of the game of hockey through the use of statistical analysis. I hope you enjoy whatever time you spend here and maybe even learn a little. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to drop me an e-mail at david (at) hockeyanalysis.com.