Rich Rodriguez, David Brandon and the $1.5 million question at UM

For the seventh consecutive November, the University of Michigan has lost its regular-season finale to arch-rival Ohio State. It's now something of a tradition. So is speculating on the fate of embattled head coach Rich Rodriguez.

In fact, it's gone from conjecture among the local sportswriter punditry to something closer to demanding that Rodriguez's head be served up on a maize-and-blue platter, preferable garnished with the vital organs of defensive coordinator Greg Robinson and his atrocious 3-3-5 defense.

Today, Bob Wojnowski of The Detroit Newsreiterated his previous demand that Rodriguez be fired and the Free Press' Michael Rosenbergwrote that UM Athletic Director David Brandon would be "absolutely foolish" not to fire Rodriguez post-haste. Of course, he also notes that waiting until January makes sense for several reasons, including the fact that Rodriguez's contract buyout clause drops from $4 million to $2.5 million after Jan. 1.

Is firing Rodriguez worth the extra $1.5 million?

Dave Brandon's reputation, forged in the corporate world, is an impressive one. He's not prone to irrational behavior, as evidenced by his successful tenures at Domino's and Valassis. And even if changing coaches is rational, he's going to do it on his own schedule – not to that of mercurial sportswriters suffering from a collective case of the vapors.

Brandon and I chatted one-on-one for more than an hour earlier this month, and we spent a lot of time talking about his criteria for evaluating coaches. You can find that story and several videos here. Brandon has a timetable and plan for the football program and the athletics department, and he's going to stick to it.

And that brings us to Jim Harbaugh, the former Michigan quarterback and current coach at Stanford. He's the choice of a goodly number of Wolverine fans, and not a few sportswriters, to replace Rodriguez.

One topic Harbaugh will be questioned about is his May 2007 comment about UM's academics and sports – the one topic guaranteed to raise the Wolverine Nation ire quotient to 11: "Michigan is a good school and I got a good education there, but the athletic department has ways to get borderline guys in, and when they're in, they steer them to courses in sports communications. They're adulated when they're playing, but when they get out, the people who adulated them won't hire them," Harbaugh told San Francisco Examiner columnist (and longtime Bay Area sports writing fixture) Glenn Dickey.

I'm not sure what prompted Harbaugh to deliver a thermonuclear jab at his alma mater – Lloyd Carr hadn't announced yet he was retiring, so it's not as if Harbaugh was in a fit of pique over not getting the job. He's got a bit of a reputation as someone unafraid to speak his mind (he got into a verbal squabble that then USC coach Pete Carroll a couple of months before the UM comments), so perhaps he's just an irrepressible gadfly.

So if Brandon does fire Rodriguez, will Harbaugh be his replacement? He's certainly a traditional Michigan Man, but there is speculation he would like to be an NFL head coach. His brother John is head coach of the Baltimore Ravens.

Harbaugh also may want to return to Stanford, where he has phenomenal sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck (who, ironically, is son of Oliver Luck, a successful quarterback in the 1980s at West Virginia ... the school Rodriguez coached before coming to Michigan). Luck is likely to return for at least one more season, and is widely considered the best quarterback in the nation. The Cardinal is 11-1 this season and headed to one of the premier bowl games.

Harbaugh's name in the past has been linked to Notre Dame, New York Jets, Kansas ... basically every significant head coach opening in recent years. He's clearly a hot commodity, and he's left jobs in the past for better positions: He quit as head coach at the University of San Diego for Stanford in December 2006 with several years left on his USD deal. He'd been in San Diego for three seasons.

Stanford is a private school, so it doesn't release contract information. However, Harbaugh is believed to make about $1.25 million annually. He inked a three-year extension in December 2009 that would keep him at the school through the 2014 season.

He'll likely want at least as much money as Rodriguez gets now, which is a six-year, $15-million deal agreed to in 2007.

Harbaugh, a 46-year-old Toledo native, was the 27th overall draft pick in 1987 by the Chicago Bears after an outstanding All-American career as a quarterback at the University of Michigan. He also played for the Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers. He was also briefly signed to deals with the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers as late as 2001, but wasn't an the active roster for those teams.

Harbaugh spent time as an unpaid assistant coach for Western Kentucky (under his father, Jack) and the Oakland Raiders before taking the head coaching job at San Diego in 2004. He left the Toreros after posting consecutive 11-1 seasons for the Stanford job. His overall head coaching record is 57-27.

This all may be moot if Brandon decides to retain Rodriguez, which is perfectly possible. The football program has improved its win-loss record over the past three years. But is that enough, especially in the wake of the NCAA investigation that tarnished the program and left it on probation for three years?

Rodriguez is 15-21 overall in three seasons, 6-18 in the Big Ten. They were 3-9 his first season and then 5-7 last year. At 7-5, they're eligible for a to-be-determined bowl game. He was 60-26 at West Virginia.

The Buckeyes, with seemingly little effort, made the Wolverines look like a hapless high school team running a gimmicky offense in a 37-7 rout on Saturday in Columbus. While Brandon is on record saying the Ohio State rivalry is not the only criteria for determining Rodriguez's fate, it IS among them.

Also a factor: Rodriguez's shocking 1-13 record against the Big Ten's best teams (Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State). For a time, OSU's Jim Tressel had won more Big Ten games at Michigan Stadium than Rodriguez.

It also can be argued that while there has been a win-loss improvement over three seasons, this year's team has regressed statistically, at least on defense. They're 99th in the nation in points given up (from 77th last year) and 112th (from 82nd) in total yards.

So what will Brandon do? I have no idea. He's done a masterful job in his public comments of being both ambiguous while sounding fair. He laid out a case to me that sounded as if he likely would keep Rodriguez, but if you listen and read closely, he's left himself plenty of room to dismiss the coach.

Brandon mentioned several times the importance of running a "clean program" but countered those comments by noting that the NCAA violations were not anything that led to a competitive advantage on the field – the serious stuff that loses a program scholarships and bowl eligibility.

Just being under investigation for being sloppy with minor rules while being sloppy in the field, however, has offended the sensibilities of a lot of people in Ann Arbor, in the press and in the luxury boxes at Michigan Stadium. And I don't think Brandon nor UM President Mary Sue Coleman are very happy about it.

Lose the bowl game, Rodriguez is done, I think. Win it decisively against a decent opponent, then Brandon has a tougher decision. But that's why he has a lucrative contract of his own, to make such calls.

The X factor? Rodriguez quitting between now and the bowl game for a soft-landing elsewhere. He comes off as stressed and unhappy, and he has plenty of friends in the coaching business who would be happy to find a position for him and his proven abilities – as an assistant coach.

Don't be surprised to hear rumors, scuttlebutt and speculation that just such a scenario is in the works between now and the end of the year.

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If you enjoy the content on the Crain's Detroit Business Web site and want to see more, try 8 issues of our print edition risk-free. If you wish to continue, you will receive 44 more issues (for a total of 52 in all), including the annual Book of Lists for just $59. That's over 55% off the cover price. If you decide Crain's is not for you, just write "Cancel" on the invoice, return it and owe nothing. The 8 issues are yours to keep with no further obligation to us. Sign up below.