Jamaica the sunspot appears to have a dark future if its vicious drug-dealing gangs aren’t brought under control, as police and gang members exchange gunfire in Kingston’s poor neighbourhoods, and the body count climbs near 50.

The fight is over extradition of alleged drug gang leader Christopher “Dudus” Coke, wanted by Washington on drug and arms trafficking charges. He is still at large after three days of gun battles, defended by hundreds of supporters who owe him their livelihoods, and more quietly by politicians who owe him for their votes.

Jamaica’s crossover of crime and government jeopardizes the small, poor and indebted nation of 2.7 million and has led to accusations that it is on its way to becoming a failed state on America’s doorstep.

Prime Minister Bruce Golding, who allegedly depended on Coke to ensure his votes in the crime-ridden West Kingston district of Tivoli Gardens, initially fended off U.S. extradition attempts. But as domestic and international pressure grew he agreed to send the neighbourhood boss to trial in New York.

His armed supporters barricaded the streets and battled with police and the army, leading to fears of a meltdown in a country that is already noted for lawlessness. And as the state of siege continues — with fighting cutting off the airport from time to time — experts worry that Jamaica is on a slippery slope to breakdown .

“There’s no work, no economy to speak of, and for those who are suffering, people like Dudus are Robin Hoods,” said Laurie Gunst, Wyoming-based author of Fi Dead: a Journey Through the Jamaican Posse Underworld. “The truth is that Jamaica has been a state without a state since the 1970s.”

That was when Jamaica sought help from the International Monetary Fund, winning a $240 million loan but throwing the country into a downward spiral of social program cuts, unemployment and disastrous debt. Since then tourism, remittances from expat Jamaicans and revenues from bauxite mines have dwindled because of the global economic crisis, and the sugar industry has declined.

“It’s stripped the Jamaican government of (money for) everything — education, health care and food subsidies,” said Gunst. “Globalization has made things worse. The country is under such duress that men like Coke, with (alleged) connections to international gun and drug trades can step into the vacuum.”

A government count put the number of Jamaican gangs at 268, and gang lords have ties with both Golding’s Jamaica Labour Party and the rival People’s National Party. Coke’s gang, the notorious Shower Posse, was named for its indiscriminate gun attacks, which left hundreds dead in the 1980s.

Jamaica’s police have also pumped up the violence, and last year they reportedly killed more than 250 people. Meanwhile, gangs were responsible for more than 1,200 deaths, making Jamaica one of most dangerous countries in the hemisphere.

Although Jamaica is a neighbour of the U.S., Washington played down the growing threat of exported gang violence and drug trafficking for years, to avoid destabilizing the volatile country, experts say.

“Jamaica is a fictional democracy,” says Larry Birns, president of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. “But faced with the problems of illegal migration, the U.S. moved very gingerly on the drug front.”

And he added, “it’s a major embarrassment for the U.S. that it took so long to uphold the principle of extradition in the case of Coke. It’s something Washington fought for, but it was prepared to (overlook) when it came to Jamaica.”

If the violence escalates so close to home, the U.S. may be forced to consider a military operation, like ones mounted in the Dominican Republic and Grenada in the past. Or in a worst-case scenario, make a deal to allow Coke to move to a safe haven in exchange for social peace. That would solve the immediate problem, but leave Jamaica’s future in doubt.

“It’s too early to say it will become another Haiti,” says Katherine Haas, a research associate at COHA. “But there is a definite risk that it will turn into something resembling a narco state.”