Damn Interesting

A Big, Big Hole in the Ground

Yellowstone National Park is a wonder of the natural world. Its geysers, hot springs, and bubbling mud pools are some of the most impressive examples of geologic activity, and amaze even those who have never visited the park (including myself). Yellowstone became the first National Park in the world when President Grant set it aside for all of posterity in 1872. The dawning of the age of the automobile brought a huge surge of interest in the park, and was the inspiration for the Yogi Bear cartoon.

But those early visitors, and the scientists who came just as eagerly, had no idea what they were really coming to see. It wasn’t until the late 1960s that Bob Christiansen, a geologist with the US Geological Survey (USGS) began to realize that the cliffs surrounding the park were really the rim of volcanic caldera. A volcanic caldera forms when the ground collapses because the magma beneath it erupted. Why did it take geologists so long to recognize Yellowstone for what it is? Because usually volcanic calderas are at most 2-4 km in diameter. The cliffs of the Yellowstone caldera stand 65 kilometers apart.

The Yellowstone Caldera sits next to two more ancient volcanic calderas to the south west. It just so happened that right when Christiansen began to trace out these enormous ancient calderas, other scientists began to use radioactive dating techniques on ash-fall deposits throughout the central United States. Three major ash-falls blanket much of the country from California through Idaho, Iowa, and down to northern Louisiana. These blankets were dated at approximately 2.2 million, 1.3 million, and 640,000 years old; exactly the same age as the three Yellowstone calderas.

By carefully recording the thickness and extent of each ash layer, scientists determined that the three eruptions had released between 300 and 2,500 cubic kilometers of ash. Mt. St Helens released a paltry-by-comparison 1 cubic kilometer. The largest of the three eruptions stands as the fifth largest eruption in all of known geologic history. That is how Yellowstone became known as a supervolcano.

Interestingly, the three Yellowstone eruptions have been between 650,000 and 900,000 years apart. Despite the very limited statistics, one could say that we may be due soon for another eruption, considering that it has been 640,000 years since the last. If one were so inclined, one could calculate the odds of such an eruption occurring each year: approximately 1 in 700,000. But, since it has been quite a while since the last eruption, it would seem that the odds are something more like 1 in 100,000 or so. Given that an average American lives to be about 70 years old, that would put each of our odds of witnessing another giant Yellowstone eruption at about 1 in 13,000. That folks, means you are far more likely witness such an eruption than you are to die in a plane crash.

Now those crude calculations are a might speculative, and any geologist would be quick to point out that there are no signs that an eruption at Yellowstone is imminent. There are, however, signs that Yellowstone is working up another blow. Since observations began in about 1925, the caldera floor has been slowly rising each year as magma refills the chamber 5 km below the surface. Our abilities to monitor the supervolcano have improved over the decades, and now we can detect the swarms of earthquakes that signal the movement of huge magma flows far below.

From observations of much smaller volcanic eruptions elsewhere, we know that earthquake swarms grow more frequent and intense as an eruption grows near. So geologists expect that any eruption at Yellowstone, even one much smaller than those that formed the three calderas, would show these signs as well. In 2001, the USGS and the University of Utah formed the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory to monitor seismic activity in the area. Hopefully the Observatory can provide enough warning to save the residents of the central United States. But, a nation-wide evacuation order would most certainly not be universally obeyed.

What would an eruption on the scale of the Yellowstone caldera eruptions be like? First, the eruption itself might last for weeks to years. During that time it would release steam and ash into the atmosphere that would partially block the sun, chilling the entire world. For thousands of miles, a blanket of ash would rain down on the land killing crops, poisoning water, and destroying mechanical and electrical equipment. Unless evacuated beforehand, people across the midwest would probably not get enough warning to leave before they are buried or suffocate on the ash. The casualties would no doubt be in the millions.

The good news is, that just like the stock market, past geologic events are no guarantee of future activity. But even so, if I lived in the part of the US that is likely to be affected by a massive eruption, I would listen to those evacuation orders pretty closely.

Related Content

Thanks for the damn interesting article! I love reading about volcanos, and since I don’t live in the ash-fall zone, it’s even more exciting!

Crispy

Posted 02 March 2006 at 10:42 pm

Heh, well, I live on the other side of the world and even I really wouldn’t like to see this thing erupt!

Supervolcanoes are not friendly… imagine having ash block out the sun over the entire world for a period of years. The temperature would plummet and nothing would grow; so we’d either freeze to death or die of starvation. That’s if the ash itself didn’t choke up our lungs and kill us that way first.

white_matter

Posted 02 March 2006 at 11:15 pm

NOW THAT’S DAMN INTERESTING!

I had no idea that Yogi Bear was inspired by the yellowstone park. You should do more articles on cartoon characters.

Arcangel

Posted 03 March 2006 at 12:13 am

A & E and the Discovery Channel presented a movie on this and did an hour or 2 show about this. The experts seem to think that we are pretty safe for the next 100 years due to plate movement, current plate position and the thickness of the plates. Hell we wouldn’t want Yogi and BooBoo bear to end up like Smokey the Bear would we.

mHagarty

Posted 03 March 2006 at 06:00 am

I went there as a kid. I remember getting a Yellowstone shirt that had Yogi and Ranger Rick on it. It was sweet.

Anthony Kendall

Posted 03 March 2006 at 06:00 am

Arcangel,
The movie you’re speaking about is “Supervolcano” and it came out last year. I’m a graduate student in geology, so the Discovery Channel gave us a special preview of the movie and handed out T-shirts. It’s my favorite T-shirt. I love the fact that the word “Supervolcano” on the chest is at once nerdy AND innuendo.

alipardiwala

Posted 03 March 2006 at 09:18 am

No volcano, not even a caldera the size of Yellowstone, is any comparison to the destructive powers of a pyroclastic volcano.

cocoabongo

Posted 03 March 2006 at 10:51 am

Yogi bear should use these geysers as another weapon in his assault on forrest fires (chuckle chuckle chuckle). I once told my grandchild about this story with Yogi bear. Here’s how it went. Yogi was fighting a fire with all of his friends, when there was a drastic change in wind direction. The fire began to circle around them. Soon enough they were completely surrounded by a firey inferno. It was only a matter of time before their demise. Yogi had a plan. Sadly he died in the process. After his plan failed the rest of the firefighters also died. My grandson cried, but sometimes you have to hear a sad story in order to learn a lesson.

Jeremy

Posted 03 March 2006 at 10:04 pm

It’s Smokey that fights fires, not Yogi.

cocoabongo

Posted 03 March 2006 at 10:40 pm

Jeremy said: “It’s Smokey that fights fires, not Yogi.”

Respectfully Jeremy, Yogi has been known to be called by both names.

beanaroo

Posted 04 March 2006 at 12:22 am

cocoabongo said: “Respectfully Jeremy, Yogi has been known to be called by both names.”

Respectfully, someone would have been wrong to call either by the others name. Smokey the Bear and Yogi are two totally different characters/animals. In fact they were created/popularized 14 years apart under very different circumstances.
Smokey the Bear was a real animal, an orphaned bear cub that survived a forest fire. The forest service used the bear to put a face (so to speak) to the tragedy that forest fires can cause. The real Smokey the Bear came from New Mexico.
Yogi Bear was a Hanna-Barbera Productions creation. A made up cartoon for entertainment. Yogi was set it Yellowstone.

So you see they are two totally different symbols created from and for very diffrent things and so calling them by the same name would be wrong.

alipardiwala said: “No volcano, not even a caldera the size of Yellowstone, is any comparison to the destructive powers of a pyroclastic volcano.”

A pyroclastic volcano erruption although very powerful would only affect a small area in comparison to what the ash from a caldera would do. You need to watch the Supervolcano movie and see just how far ranging the Yellowstone caldera would affect. It sure shed some light on it’s dangers to me and I live in Ontario, Canada.

Armani

Posted 04 March 2006 at 02:08 am

Thats scary, a natural nuclear fallout.

cocoabongo

Posted 04 March 2006 at 07:55 am

beanaroo said: “Respectfully, someone would have been wrong to call either by the others name. Smokey the Bear and Yogi are two totally different characters/animals. In fact they were created/popularized 14 years apart under very different circumstances.

Smokey the Bear was a real animal, an orphaned bear cub that survived a forest fire. The forest service used the bear to put a face (so to speak) to the tragedy that forest fires can cause. The real Smokey the Bear came from New Mexico.

Yogi Bear was a Hanna-Barbera Productions creation. A made up cartoon for entertainment. Yogi was set it Yellowstone.

So you see they are two totally different symbols created from and for very diffrent things and so calling them by the same name would be wrong.

Well I guess I can see where you might be coming from, but let’s just agree to disagree. You say tomato I say tomato.

AKALucifer

Posted 04 March 2006 at 09:19 am

gorgeousplanet said: “Thanks for the damn interesting article! I love reading about volcanos, and since I don’t live in the ash-fall zone, it’s even more exciting!”

If you live in America then you could be in the fall zone depending on which way the wind was blowing.

chrisboyle001

Posted 04 March 2006 at 10:43 am

cocoabongo said: “Well I guess I can see where you might be coming from, but let’s just agree to disagree. You say tomato I say tomato.”

That doesn’t work very well when you are reading, because who ever is reading this will pronounce it how they like. When this happens they are actually making you think in their own point of view, which brings self satisfaction to the reader.

AKALucifer

Posted 05 March 2006 at 06:32 am

You say

chrisboyle001 said: “That doesn’t work very well when you are reading, because who ever is reading this will pronounce it how they like. “

I say stop being anal.

fallsdown

Posted 06 May 2006 at 10:28 am

Isn’t the Mammoth Mountain area of eastern California one of these super volcanos as well?

sulkykid

Posted 08 May 2006 at 02:19 pm

OK, Yogi Bear was set in Jellystone Park, not Yellowstone. And it was Ranger Smith, not Ranger Rick. Get it right folks. Sheeesh!

SillyHumans

Posted 28 May 2006 at 03:37 pm

Really, people, you’re arguing about a fictional character, word pronounciation, a mascot and how many other trivial useless points?..

We were trying to have a discussion about a supervolcano, were we Not? Anyways. fallsdown, there is another calderra that forms death valley CA, I believe, and I forget the name of the other, it’s a couple hundred miles northeast or north west I think. Those are the three extremely large calderras in the western/central US along the rockies. yellowstone is the most noticably active, but it reasonable to believe that the entire region is full of tectonic stress and volcanic activity.

Problem is, everyboy likes to suffer from SEP syndrome (Somebody Elses Problem) right up until the moment the whole damn thing blows up in everyones faces cause there ended up being Nobody dealing with the problem.

Luckily, there are people who know about the risks there, so I doubt even a massive explosion of one or more of the supervolcanos in western US would have catastropic lasting effects on the whole continent. If idiots are not prepared for the case of an unforseen catalyst causing eruptions, then many will die. If people have continginces set, then few will die. No one has any idea when or how but .. I mean we do buy storm windows for our houses because we saw that there was a storm last year right? Okay well there was an eruption last year sometime, think of it that way. How hard is it to have a plan?

alipardiwala and kendall.. the thing about calderra and pyroclastic and all that is that basically it doesn’t matter, any supervolcano that blows is always bad. in 1815 it says Tambora caused actual winter from the other side of the planet, and it’s sort of obvious that yellowstone would have enough material in it that a good blow would definitly have global effects. Anyone with any logical reasoning knows that all that is needed for a major eruption from any given volcano which has material built up in it, is a catalyst. Maybe giant earthquakes all over the world and stuff to shake the magma and fill the lava chamber faster, I don’t know. You’re a geoligist, Anthony, you explain.

There, now you guys have fun with that post. Rip it all up. lol ..

Does anyone want to tell everyone about the conjunction with Olympus Mons on mars, or do I have to?

troutkiller

Posted 03 December 2006 at 08:11 pm

I live really close to yellowstone. when it does blow it will be probably a really cool to see until the surge vaporizes the region.

This sounds crazy, but would there be a way to drill out the magma, do some “magma mining” to slowly release the pressure? And get some heat energy while we were at it, and at the same time reduce the pressure on the caldera? Or will someone complain that we will be deflating the earth or something like that and protest the whole thing?

jsmill

Posted 21 October 2008 at 09:05 pm

“Now those crude calculations are a might speculative”
Hate to nit-pick but I think you mean ‘mite’.

Two Cents from Girth

Posted 21 October 2008 at 09:32 pm

Wow! Where did you kids grow up?? #14, there is no Tomato here, Yogi is a cartoon character arguably drawn up in Jellystone/Yellowstone. As someone aptly pointed out Smokey is from New Mexico, near Billy the Kids old stomping grounds and in the vicinity of the Mescalaro Indian Reservation. About five Boo Boo’s there…lets try to get it right.
Yellowstone is a massive geologists wet dream with a ticking core that could reshape N. America. Most such primal forces expired ages ago in the vast eras before man, yet here, a glimpse of our ancient raw past persists among the toursists and the ever passing seasons, unabashed elemental beauty. A simmering slumber has long been this lands part in a timeless symphony. Despare and anguish will spread throughout our land if this giant again stirs…
Directly into history books the ash and soil will fly as the old the tell the young the account of that last breath of the sleepy park also recalling the matchstick towns removed from the map by mud and fire, a day of history and grief as nature again proves we bend as does all life on Earth.

OmegaMan

Posted 05 March 2009 at 02:15 pm

It could not be clearer to me that the fictional character “Yogi Bear” was a cultural homage to Yogi Berra, and “JellyStone Park” refered to
“YellowStone Park”

farmermarms

Posted 19 September 2010 at 12:29 pm

If anyone is really interested i have done some extensive research on the topic of supervolcanoes. Yes Yellowstone is most likely to supererupt again, but the chances of that happening in our life time, or even the next 1000 years or so is very very unlikely, in fact unlike most media’s say Yellowstone is not even overdue yet, its something like 70,000 years until its truly overdue if we look at its past 3 major eruptions. But when it does erupt there is no doubt the result will be catastrophic, with nearly all the US covered in more than 1cm of ash and over 5 states covered in more than 15cm. Globally there would be a volcanic winter, the Toba eruption in Sumatra 74,000 years ago caused around a 3 degree drop in global temperatures and similar effects would be seen from Yellowstone. Not to mention the loss of the grain belt which would cause huge famine in the US. In other words when Yellowstone does erupt, goodbye USA and goodbye humans unappreciative views of the Earths true violent potential.

dejapooh

Posted 21 September 2012 at 10:17 am

cocoabongo, I KNOW I am making a LOT more out of this than I should. I mean, this is a discussion about the difference between Yogi and Smokey the bears. But, How can you agree to disagree when one person is right, provides evidence they are right, Sites appropriate information and websites to substantiate their position? I mean, just admit it. You were wrong. It is no crime to be wrong and be corrected (Hell, happens to me almost every day, just ask my wife). This is not Tomato/Tomaato (or however you would write that so that people would know what you are talking about), or different versions of the same thing. This is Tomato/Guano.

Matt Heyne

Posted 03 March 2015 at 11:08 pm

“Bob Nesbo
Posted 19 August 2008 at 03:37 am

This sounds crazy, but would there be a way to drill out the magma, do some “magma mining” to slowly release the pressure? And get some heat energy while we were at it, and at the same time reduce the pressure on the caldera? Or will someone complain that we will be deflating the earth or something like that and protest the whole thing?”

Sounds like a great idea Bob, but we have no idea of the effect of such an action. It could work, but it could also destabilise the caldera and cause an eruption. And if we tried to vent it there is no guarantee we could control what we vented(toxic gasses etc.) how much, or if we could stop it once it began. Volcanology is still a guessing game for the most part, as we still have no way of mapping the internal structure of the planet or the extreme forces involved therein. 10 points for creativity though.

Share This Page

Comments

Scroll to Top
⇧

HALP

Sorry to interrupt.It seems you've really digging into our curated links.We put a lot of effort into finding these gems.Please consider donating so we can keep up the effort.Would you like to know more?

Sorry to interrupt.It seems you've read at least whole articles now.Yay!This is a reader-supported project, and you can get stuff for donating.Would you like to know more?

Hello! This site is an independent project.We despise advertising so we ask for direct support from readers.If you donate you can get stuff.Would you like to know more?