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Paul Ryan plan not the weapon House Dems had expected

Democrats were counting on Ryan's controversial plan to help them win back the House. | Reuters

Robby Mook, the DCCC executive director, argued that the Ryan budget is “toxic with voters. It’s why we’ve seen so much movement in key races. No matter how much Republicans lie about it, or how hard they wish it would go away, the Ryan budget is a down ballot drag and it’s moving voters away from Republican incumbents.”

The Medicare argument, Democrats contend, has been particularly effective in helping to turn races in Democratic areas in their favor. They point to GOP Reps. Brian Bilbray of California and Charlie Bass of New Hampshire as instances in which Republicans have slipped as a consequence of the entitlement-focused barrage. In both races, Democrats have succeeded in using the Ryan plan to motivate party voters who dominate the districts.

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Democrats also say the Medicare offensive has helped to move senior voters — those 55 and older — who in many cases supported Republicans in the disastrous 2010 midterms. Many of those voters, they say, are becoming increasingly aware of the Ryan plan and are viewing it in an unfavorable light.

But Democrats concede that the offensive has been less successful in more conservative districts that are likely to turn out for Romney on Nov 6.

New Jersey Democrat Shelley Adler, who is seeking a seat in the state’s conservative south central area, has run some of the most entertaining TV ads of the election. The spots portray her opponent, GOP Rep. Jon Runyan, a former professional football player, running into seniors whose Medicare privileges he wants to block.

But a recent survey out from the Stockton Polling Institute showed Runyan with a commanding 49 percent to 39 percent lead. And last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee canceled a planned flight of TV ads for Runyan — a sign that the party is confident in his prospects.

The problem in such conservative districts, Democrats say, is that a partisan message can turn off the Republican voters who Democratic candidates need to cultivate in order to win.

“In some cases, it can define a race along partisan lines, and that’s not always what you want to do,” Beattie said.

Some Democrats say they were taken by surprise when Republicans launched a vigorous counteroffensive, accusing Obama of embracing a health care reform bill that included cuts to Medicare. Thirty-three of the 100 TV ads the National Republican Congressional Committee aired in August and September focused on the entitlement program — a push, say Democrats and Republicans alike, that has helped protect GOP incumbents in conservative districts.

“Democrats took a chance and played the only wild card they had to fulfill their dreams of taking the majority, and it has fallen flat,” Andrea Bozek, an NRCC spokeswoman, wrote in an email. “Voters understand that Democrats cut Medicare to pay for their government health care takeover that puts bureaucrats in between seniors and their doctors. That’s what you call a bad bet.”

As the election draws closer, Democrats are hitting the Medicare message but are also shifting to other themes. In the August-to-September period, the DCCC ran 11 ads focused on job outsourcing and three on women’s health.

Maslin said because many of the remaining undecided voters are younger and less receptive to an entitlement message, the party would zero in on other issues besides Medicare.

“It may decline in importance as we get closer to the election,” Maslin said. “In a presidential election year, where there’s going to be strong turnout across the board, you’ve got to worry about younger voters who in some cases are undecided.”

Readers' Comments (34)

Its a long term plan - many many years in the making - cut taxes - > run up the debt -> get rid of Medicare and Socialist Security.

cLike the second prong of our attack - capture the White House long enough to turn the SCOTUS to our side. Then end abortion in ALL cases, and once we have defined abortion as murder, we will go after the murderors!

These plans have been decades in the making - it is MARVELOUS to see Mitt and Ryan finally bringing home the end game!

What is so absolutely amusing is that democrats are running against a plan from the last congress, not the up and coming Romney/Ryan administration and the one Ryan worked on last with Wyden. Seniors have woken up to the mischaracterizations and outright lies coming from liberals and just don't like it.

I have not heard ONE single democrat argue the plan that Romney/Ryan are presenting. Not ONE..

Democrats may win some low information voters, but, they're doing it with dishonesty. Very unfair and somewhat insulting to the American citizenry.

The 2 main reasons that Romney-Ryan is becoming more popular than Obama-Biden is that Americans are learning that socialism is, quite frankly, unsustainable, and that the country under the Democrat Party has veered too far away from the Constitution.

We have seen the Democratic Party's long-term plan for America. It is to make all of America look just like Detroit looks today. It took them nearly fifty years to do it, but they finally succeeded to turning Detroit from America's greatest success story into a huge slum where even the police are passing out flyers warning visitors that the entire city is a war zone where their lives are in danger.

This is the inevitable result of socialism, as the people of Cuba and North Korea have already found out, and as the people in Greece, Spain and most of Europe are beginning to find out. And how are the poor people in Detroit faring now that there is no one to support them?

Poor Ryan has a problem. He has a voting record. He voted for every issue that got us in this mess. he was a member of Simpson-Bowles committee but walked out. He couldn't work with just 6 Dems. He is the party of no. His approval rating is 13% as a member of congress.

Ryan co sponsored the person hood bill with Atkins that will make abortion and birth control illegal for everyone. Biggest users of welfare are poor seniors and single mothers with children and he wants to outlaw birth control. So Ryan you can't walk away from your record or Joe will call you a liar.

Mitt says he is going to cut taxes but reduce loopholes and deductions to pay for it. The only problem is it is a lie for Mitt to now say it is neutral. If you can't identify what the deductions are then you are a liar. Mitt is a businessman. He should have a business plan that details what deductions are cut to make it balance. You don't announce the good part of the plan and then trust me. So in reality Mitt has just announced he has added $5 trillion in debt to the country.

Mitt can't work across the aisle because it isn't the Dems Mitt needs to worry about. Mitt will not be able to work with the TeaParty. Mitt is lying and the Tea Party won't support Mitt anymore than they wouldn't support Boehner.

The difference is that Ryan has a plan, the democrats have yet to present a budget or an economic plan. The only plan for the democrats is identity politics, play one group against another divide and control.

A lot of things the Dems planned on isn''t helping. Medicare is a loser for the Dems. And Simpson-Bowles, that Obama rejected, is a haunting Christmas Past.

The Dems have been misplaying this from the beginning of the Obama Administration. They have set the wrong priorities, disavowed laws and imposed rule by fiat, and failed to take action against terrorism. They have been involved in multiple corruption investigations and have been the least transparent Administration in US history!

I think the Dens are making two mistakes by depending on people who are not currently receiving Medicare, to understand the importance of what the Ryan changes to Medicare will mean. And the Republicans have effectively sold the government as ineffective to administer anything when compared with corporations, but the truth is that corporations, especially large ones, are horribly inefficient and often at a much greater cost to the public and the consumer.

An effective ad would just play out a phone call or any other interaction with a corporate entity in trying to accomplish anything. Imagine hearing, "Please enter your voucher number now. If you don't know your voucher number, press the pound sign and we will explain where to find it. (Beat) I.m sorry I didn't understand your selection, please try again."

The thing is we're fas familiar with corporate inefficiencies as we are with government ones. But we often forget that corporate inefficiencies cost more because they have to pay for the bureaucracy of middle management as well as shareholder returns.

When dealing with voters, as Bill Clinton proved, simple arithmetic is a wonderful tool.

MEMO TO POLITICO - Is there some reason that not one of your major headlines today covers the unraveling of this Administration's lies about what happened in Benghazi? The State Department is admitting that there was no demonstration outside the consulate. They are admitting there was no increase in security for 9-11 ... in fact, such requests were turned down or ignored. Susan Rice clearly lied to the American people five times on the Sunday following the murder of our ambassador to Libya. The FBI could not even enter Benghazi for two weeks after the attack. Even CNN reporters got there sooner, looting evidence such as the ambassador's diary. And what did Obama do? Fly to Vegas for a fund raiser? Is POLITICO part of the cover-up?

This article is one long, hilarious, delusional rant. Even the people spewing the crap know it's a lie, after every "we've had big wins here!" they immediately clarify it and say "well no, actually we haven't and we've really had some big losses too".

The fact of the matter is that Democrats banked on Paul Ryan discouraging seniors from voting for Romney, and it turns out that bank wasn't too big to fail.