No real surprises among any of the top countries, at least among the guys who are actually going to be on the ice in Vancouver. Canada's top three picks were pretty obvious. Finland had some options with the top-level goalies they have available (e.g. Pekka Rinne, Tuukka Rask), but going with a tandem of Kiprusoff/Backstrom wasn't too surprising. Sweden could have picked one of their other experienced NHL goalies as their #2 or #3, someone like Johan Hedberg, but I expect Lundqvist will play nearly every game and certainly every game of consequence. Similarly it could be argued that Craig Anderson has been better than Jon Quick, but it really doesn't matter to anyone other than those two guys since the Americans' #3 goalie will be stuck behind last year's Vezina winner and this year's Vezina frontrunner.

Assuming Halak and Hiller get the majority of the starts for Slovakia and Switzerland, all of the top 8 countries have above-average NHL puckstoppers. I looked at the save percentages for the expected starters or starting tandems over the last three seasons plus this one so far (save percentages are adjusted for game situation, using factors of 80% for EV SV% and 20% for PK SV%):

Combining both metrics by taking the average of the two, to get a mix of a goalie's track record and their current level of play, we see how close the goaltending probably is (numbers are for the highest-ranked goalie only from each country):

I don't necessarily agree with that exact order, I'm especially skeptical as to whether the Russian goalies can maintain their hot starts, but I think the general point is fairly clear that none of the top countries can expect to have much of a goaltending edge in Vancouver. The U.S. team might have a slight advantage if Ryan Miller can maintain his outstanding play so far this season, but over a short tournament that's still probably an expected difference of a goal or two saved compared to everyone else. Hockey games are usually decided by the skaters anyway, but that should be even more true at these Olympics where everyone has a more than capable backstop. It is certainly possible that some goalies will get hot or cold and end up deciding a key game in February, but at the moment it's little more than a guess as to which goalies that might be, if any. To borrow a quote from the movie The Incredibles: "When everyone's super, no one will be."

(Just a little postscript for Canadian fans, Marc-Andre Fleury's numbers are .911 over the past 3+ seasons and .903 this year. He may impress the type of crowd that ranks goalies entirely based on playoff wins and team success, but I certainly hope Canada doesn't entertain any thoughts of actually putting Fleury into a game.)

3 comments:

Who do you think should start, Luongo or Brodeur? I'm going to guess you'd prefer Luongo, and I would as well. But I think Luongo's superiority over Brodeur isn't as wide as Brodeur's over Fleury.

There's really no arguement against Luongo's clutch play. His team has always just been awful. His average playoff save percentage is better than Brodeur or Fleury have put up once. Luongo's save percentage in the 2007 playoffs was .941. I did the math (inspired by your idea of being able to do this), with the shots against per game (36 to 38, I forget what it was exactly) and goals scored by Vancouver that playoffs (1.75 per game), and his save percentage would have had to have been .952 just to get an even goal differential. That would have been the highest of all-time I believe. Higher than Giguere in 2003, which was .945.

Who do you think would deserve the Vezina if it were awarded today? I know Miller's the favorite, but I'm tempted to say Bryzgalov. Iirc, the top-50 points getters in each of their divisions is as follows.

I'd prefer Luongo, but only slightly over Brodeur. They're close enough that in a short tournament there's really no significant difference between them, and Canada's fine with either of them.

Miller is my Vezina pick, although Bryzgalov is certainly a contender. The divisional argument is a fair point, Miller is 7-1-3, 1.70, .944 against his division this year. Miller also has faced a much lower percentage of his shots on the PK. However, last year Phoenix led the league by at least one measure of shot quality, and they've probably been at least as good this year under Tippett.

I think that all that still adds up to an edge for Miller, but then again I've seen a lot more of Miller than Bryzgalov this year, which probably factors a bit into my choice.

It won't surprise you to learn that my choice would be Brodeur. Luongo might have a marginal advantage as a stopper, but Brodeur has a large edge as a sweeper. If anything that skill might be more important on a team that isn't overly familiar with each other.

About Me

I'm Philip Myrland, goalie stats blogger since 2007 and former writer for Hockey Prospectus. I call myself a contrarian because I rely mainly on stats-based analysis, think large sample sizes are more important than "big saves" and prefer to rank goalies based on save percentage rather than team success. In other words, pretty much the mainstream views of the hockey analytics community, but I've grown attached to the handle and plan to keep it as long as broadcasters everywhere keep bringing up GAA and wins. If you have any questions or comments contact me by email (contrariangoaltender@gmail.com). You can also follow me on Twitter (@tcghockey).