Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Drop Rates Guild Altar Blessing

Hi All,

My name is Matt, I play the level 63 Archer Shalima on the Kabam server S15, and I'm a new poster on this blog. But lets not talk about me, instead lets discuss the Guild Altar and the various drop rates when you land on an item type. I have been recording the items I received from the Guild Altar for months now and wanted to share the information with the community.

Hypothesis

If I spin a certain item type on the Guild Altar there is a fixed chance of getting an item reward, so after collecting enough data, we can model the rate of item reward drops. There are ten possible item types that may be spun: Booster Items, Daru, Exp, Gems, Gold, Plants, Potions, Shop Items, Tokens, Vouchers.

Using this data I expect to be able to determine, on any given spin, how likely I am to get a desired item, such as the Socketing Rod or Crypt Key.

Assumptions

There are a few variables that are beyond my control which may affect the drop rates, but we assume they have no effect:

the data was collected across three server upgrades: 1.6, 1.6.1, 1.6.2, and I assume the drop rates did not change

time of day and day of the week/month/year have no effect on drops

if you spin an item type, you have a fixed chance of getting each item reward

no matter where you start a spin, you have an equal chance of the wheel stopping on any item type*

*This point may, or may not be true. I have not done enough research comparing where the spin stops to where it started, and as you'll see in my data, I haven't landed on one particular item type significantly more frequently than any other. That said, my non-empirical, gut-feeling is that the spin stops most frequently in a distribution +/-2 spots from where the spin started.

The Data

I have collected my data in a public google doc, so everybody can see the numbers I have gathered so far (link in the comments. I will continue to update, so values will become more accurate over time). As of this posting, the spinner has stopped on each item type about 100 times, which is statistically significant for most items types that have 3-7 possible rewards. However, it is not enough times to evaluate some of the item types that have many possible rewards: Gems, Plants, and Potions. The probabilities calculated for these three item types should be taken with a grain of salt.

Here is a current snapshot of the data:

Altar Results as of Sept. 4, 2013

How to Read the Data

The leftmost column contains the number of times the spinner has stopped on a given item type. It summarizes four lines of data that are shown to the right. The first row is the item type, second the types of rewards available for that item type, the third are the number of times each reward was received, and the fourth is the probability of that reward being received if the spinner stops on that item type.

For example, if the spinner stopped on the Token item type, you have around a 40% chance that a Mount Training Whip (aka. Beast Spirit) will be rewarded. This is determined, because out of 114 times the spinner has stopped on Token item type, 44 were Mount Training Whips.

Interesting Facts

Since we are assuming that each spinner spot is equally likely, there is a 1 in 10 chance (there are 10 item types) on each spin that you will land on any given item type. Therefore, if we divide the probably for each reward by a factor of 10, we can determine how likely any given item reward will be on each spin. Here are some highlights of the best rewards (keep in mind these are estimates):

50k Daru - 0.6% chance or 1 out of 166 spins

100k Gold - 0.25% chance or 1 out of 400 spins

400 Vouchers - 0.3% chance or 1 out of 333 spins

Crypt Keys - 1.2% chance or 1 out of 83 spins

Mount Training Whips - 3.85% chance or 1 out of 26 spins

Skeleton Keys - 2.0% chance or 1 out of 50 spins

Socketing Rods - .65% chance or 1 out of 154 spins

Soul Crystals* - 4.4% chance or 1 out of 23 spins

* Soul Crystals are the only item that can be rewarded by two item types, so the calculation is the summation of the Shop Item and Token percentages.

Taking this a step further you can figure out how many days it should take you to get a particular item, given the number of spins you can make per day. Here are the number of days to get a Socketing Rod for each Guild Altar level:

154 spins / 3 spins a day = 51 days

154 spins / 6 spins a day = 26 days

154 spins / 9 spins a day = 17 days

154 spins / 12 spins a day = 13 days

154 spins / 15 spins a day = 10 days

154 spins / 18 spins a day = 8 days

154 spins / 21 spins a day = 7 days

154 spins / 24 spins a day = 6 days

154 spins / 27 spins a day = 6 days

154 spins / 30 spins a day = 5 days

So even with a level 10 Guild Altar, you still won't be receiving a lot of Socketing Rods. But since it takes so long to get the level 60, 70, and 80 gear, you will probably get enough Socketing Rods from the Guild Altar to fully socket your high level gear as you receive it, assuming you are maxing out your spins each day.

Conclusion

I hope you find the data presented here useful. It's not perfect, but I believe it accurately represents your statistical probability of getting most of the item rewards from the Guild Altar. Please leave your comments, questions, and/or violent dissent in the comment section and I'll try to respond regularly.