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2 Industrial Robots Automatic and multipurpose machines with several axis suitable for industrial applications. Salient example of class of techs that compete task-by-task against labor. Large increase between 1993 and 2014: in the US, fivefold increase from 2 to 10 robots per thousand industry workers.

3 Exposure to Robots Exposure to robots for a commuting zone, c: Exposure to robots in c = industryi Employment share industry i in c Adoption of robots in i. Employment share industry i in c: is the czone share of employment in each industry in Adoption of robots industry i: use of robots in three-digit manufacturing industries and two-digit nonmanufacturing industries. Data from the International Federation of Robotics covering the period from We use adoption among European industries as a proxy for the technological possibilities for the U.S.

4 Adoption of Robots Over Time Figure: Trends in the use of industrial robots per thousand workers. Data: IFR.

5 Exposed Industries Figure: Increase use of robots in US and European industries. Data from the IFR. Both axis are in a logarithmic scale.

12 Placebo Exercise Change in Census employment from 1970 to Exposure to robots from 1993 to 2007 Figure: Placebo test of whether exposure to robots is correlated with past trends in employment and wages.

15 Where did the workers go? Workers do not seem to be reallocating to other jobs. Workers do not seem to be moving to other regions. Maybe this will happen, but the adjustment seems sluggish and costly. Workers are dropping out of the labor force.

16 Adding Up The Numbers Robots could have reduced employment by 360, ,000. Moderate estimates. No robocalypse. But the reason why aggregate effects are small is because industrial robots are not adopted widely yet. US expected to add 600,000 robots in the next 10 years: 2 million manufacturing jobs. 2 million additional jobs due to multiplier.

18 Future of labor Future of labor depends on whether new technologies favoring labor are created and counteracting forces offset losses. The productivity effect. Capital accumulation and investment. Deepening of automation. Investment in skills. New tasks and jobs.

19 History of automation British industrial revolution: factory system and automation in textiles. Stagnant wages for over 60 years. But eventually, large increase in capital, and improvement of installed machinery. New jobs: engineers, machinists, repairmen, conductors, back-office workers and managers. The mechanization of agriculture: horse-powered reaper, harvesters, and threshing machines. Large migration away from rural areas. But eventually, large increase in capital, and improvement of installed machinery (horses to tractors). New jobs and sectors: industry and farm equipment. Large investment in high school education.

20 Is this time different? Counteracting forces are lagging behind automation: The productivity effect: so-so technologies? Capital accumulation and investment: much more to do. Investment in skills: severe mismatch? New tasks and jobs: geographic gap?

21 New Job Titles Employment growth (annualized) 10% 5% 0 5% 10% 15% From 1980 to 2015 From 1990 to 2015 From 2000 to Share of new job titles at the beginning of each period Figure: Employment growth by occupation over different time periods (annualized), plotted against the share of new job titles at the beginning of each period in each occupation. Data from Jeffrey Lin (2011).

22 New Job Titles Figure: Commuting zones with the largest share of workers doing new work in Geographic gap: zero correlation with exposure to automation.

23 New Job Titles Share of workers in "new jobs" in Exposure to robots from 1990 to 2007 Figure: Correlation between exposure to robots and the location of new work.

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