This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distribution to colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire about permissions/licensing, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com

And the lieutenant-governor is suddenly staying put — so he can stay above the fray.

Within the space of a week at Queen’s Park, the breaking news has been breathtaking:

Unauthorized erasures in a former premier’s office.

Article Continued Below

Unauthorized budget leaks from the current treasurer’s office.

Now, momentum is building for a possible spring election triggered by Dalton McGuinty’s legacy and Kathleen Wynne’s leftovers:

Suspected email deletions in the final days of McGuinty’s premiership were detailed in court documents last week, the product of an Ontario Provincial Police probe into how the Liberals cancelled two gas-fired power plants.

Suspected violations of budget secrecy were revealed on Tuesday, which could produce yet another OPP investigation into how cabinet documents were disclosed to the opposition Progressive Conservatives.

The fallout from these twin bombshells raises the pressure on Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats to defeat next month’s budget, topple Wynne’s Liberal minority government and trigger an election.

Put another way: A cover-up, and a budget uncovered, could produce a spring cleaning.

If that spring campaign fails to produce a clear winner with a majority of seats, Ontario could be plunged into a contentious post-election scenario as rival party leaders vie to form the next government. Against that backdrop of increasing uncertainty, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s plans to replace Lieutenant-Governor David Onley have been placed on hold.

An announcement of Onley’s successor, expected by now, will wait until after the budget vote to avoid installing a rookie lieutenant-governor in the line of fire ahead of an unpredictable provincial election.

Until then, all eyes will be on the NDP, which holds the balance of power in the minority legislature. Perhaps for not much longer.

New details of McGuinty’s final days in power make it harder for the third-place NDP to keep propping up the first-place Liberals in the legislature. Last week’s OPP revelations, and the NDP’s insinuations that an alleged cover-up has contaminated Wynne, have put Horwath under the gun.

How much longer can she decry the stench of scandal and keep holding her nose — sticking it to the Liberals while sticking with them?

Until recently, Wynne government strategists thought they had an answer. If the spring budget contained enough progressive proposals, it would prove too tempting for Horwath to resist: From expanded transit to enhanced job creation and a new Ontario Pension Plan, their thinking was that a progressive premier and a populist NDP leader could find common ground.

On the evidence, however, there may not be enough to keep Horwath happy — or her partisans in line. The latest pre-budget leaks have the hallmark of a pre-election propaganda roll-out, with a timeline of announcements intended to maximize publicity for the Liberals in the event of a spring vote.

Horwath held her fire Tuesday, saying she would await the formal budget presentation early next month before delivering her verdict. But she spoke without any evident enthusiasm for the leaked Liberal proposals, and the overall budget package revealed this week may not be enough for Horwath to forestall an election by walking an impossibly fine line.

There is $5.7 billion in new spending, $250 million a year to attract new business investment, and increases to the Ontario Child Benefit for low-income families. But none of these seems enough to seal a deal.

The most sensitive budget proposals, relating to transit expansion and pension enhancement, were missing from the leaked documents. There was no mention of how Wynne would raise money for new transit and road investment, which the NDP has warned must not burden middle class Ontarians. Nor were there any details of a proposed Ontario Pension Plan that Wynne has been heralding as a top priority.

But there will be more hints on Wednesday when Finance Minister Charles Sousa releases a report on Ontario’s long-term economic outlook, with a chapter devoted to retirement income security.

The report warns that the middle class is most vulnerable to “outliving one’s savings.” A minority of workers has access to traditional pensions in the private sector, and they are declining in number — undermining Ontario’s long term economic prospects, it predicts.

With two out of three workers lacking any workplace pension, they will become increasingly dependent on government income supports in old age. The existing Canada Pension Plan is “inadequate” for the needs of middle-class seniors, paying out far less than comparable Social Security benefits in the U.S.

Noting that Ottawa spurned a request from the provinces to enhance the CPP, it says the province is pursuing a “made-in-Ontario plan.” But the report doesn’t give any hints as to the budget’s detailed pension proposals.

Either way, the Liberal government’s survival seems to lie with the OPP. The question is, which OPP?

More from the Toronto Star & Partners

LOADING

Copyright owned or licensed by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or distribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Toronto Star Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. To order copies of Toronto Star articles, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com