Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Skepticism About Mahdi Govt In New Iraq Poll

PM Mahdi (Baghdad Post)

A new poll
by Al Mustakilla for Research found widespread skepticism about the
government of Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi. In nearly every category the
administration ranked at under 50% in approval. The poll was taken during
January 2019 and included 1,300 people. The respondents were broken up into
four regions. One was Baghdad. Another was the Arab North including Ninewa,
Kirkuk, Salahaddin, and Diyala. The South was everything below Baghdad, and
then Kurdistan.

When asked how satisfied they were with the new government
all the individuals and institutions came in below 50%. PM Mahdi was at 45% and
President Barham Salah was slightly better at 48%. In another question when
asked to rank the government from 1 to 10 with 1 the lowest and 10 the highest,
the prime minister and president received 4.6 each. The parliament was lower at
3.7, Speaker Halbusi received a 4, the ministers a 3.7 and the justice system
4.3. The mixed standing of the government with the public is probably due to
the fact that it has not accomplished much since taking office. The one major
act it has done is passed the national budget, which included a new deal with
the Kurdistan Regional Government. That’s probably the reason why PM Mahdi had
his highest response in Kurdistan at 76% versus 48% in Baghdad, 51% in the Arab
north and 53% in the South. There has also been a growing cynicism about Iraq’s
institutions overall no matter who is the leader.

How satisfied are you with the performance of PM Adil Abdul Mahdi?

Overall

45%

KRG

76%

Arab North

51%

Baghdad

48%

South

53%

How satisfied are you with the performance of Iraqi President Barham
Salah?

Overall

48%

KRG

68%

Arab North

56%

Baghdad

45%

South

47%

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 lowest 10 highest evaluate PM Mahdi

Overall

4.6

KRG

6

Arab North

5

Baghdad

4

South

5

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 lowest 10 highest evaluate President Salah

Overall

4.6

KRG

7

Arab North

5

Baghdad

4

South

4

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 lowest 10 highest evaluate parliament

Overall

3.7

KRG

4

Arab North

4

Baghdad

3

South

3

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 lowest 10 highest evaluate Speaker Halbusi

Overall

4

KRG

4

Arab North

5

Baghdad

3.5

South

4

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 lowest 10 highest evaluate ministers

3.7

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 lowest 10 highest evaluate justice system

4.3

When asked had the government been able to take over its
responsibilities yet respondents were again split. 46% said yes and 48% no.
When broken down by region only Baghdad at 58% and the south at 50% seemed sure
of the new administration, while Kurdistan at 38% was not.

Do you think the
Mahdi government has been able to assume responsibilities so far?

Iraq

KRG

Arab North

Baghdad

South

Able

46%

38%

48%

58%

50%

Not Able

48%

43%

49%

41%

46%

With the Islamic State defeated and attempting to rebuild
services are now the most pressing issue in Iraq. In that field Baghdad was
seen as sorely lacking. When asked how successful the government was security
had the highest rating at 52%. After that everything else was below the 50%
mark with water at 48%, electricity at 33%, education at 29%, and health care
and higher education at 28% each. The Iraqi government has always struggled at
providing basics like electricity, so it should be no surprise that the Mahdi
administration ranked so low.

How successful is the government in providing the following services?

Higher Education

28%

Health Care

28%

Education

29%

Electricity

33%

Water

48%

Security

52%

When it came to the economy people polled were again
divided. When asked did they think the economic situation would get better or
worse in the next 12 months 35% said it would improve, 34% said it would stay
the same, while 27% thought it would get worse. Southern Iraq was the most
skeptical with 33% thinking it would get worse, while the Arab North was more
optimistic with 39% saying it would get better. Iraq’s economy is completely
dependent upon oil. Oil prices dipped at the end of 2018, but they have since
risen. The problem is that petroleum drives the macro economy, but on the micro
level things like jobs and pay are not really impacted. That might explain the
split responses in the poll.

Do you think the
economy will be better or worse in 12 months?

Iraq

KRG

Arab North

Baghdad

South

Better

35%

38%

39%

30%

32%

Same

34%

36%

32%

43%

29%

Worse

27%

17%

26%

25%

33%

Premier Mahdi like all his predecessors said that he would
combat corruption. This is in response to popular discontent and annual
protests, which is expressed in the survey. 93% of respondents said they
believed in the spread of corruption within the government. 64% said that graft
was spreading in the local government. 55% said they believed bribes were
necessary to get services. 80% said that there was large corruption within
Iraq’s institutions. When asked to compare the Mahdi administration to previous
ones in dealing with this issue most were very skeptical. The Arab North was at
24% saying Mahdi would do more, following by 28% in Baghdad and the South each.
Only in Kurdistan at 54% did people believe things would get better. Most felt
like Mahdi would do the same as previous governments rating 42%-44% in the
north, Baghdad and south. That is not a ringing endorsement as officials have
talked about tackling this issue far more than fighting it. That’s because
corruption has been institutionalized and is part of how the government rules.
The elite take from each ministries’ budget and dish out public sector jobs and
services in return for support. That’s also the reason why corruption will
never be seriously addressed, and explains the poll numbers.

When comparing the
Mahdi government with previous ones what degree do you think the government is
giving attention to combating corruption?

KRG

Arab North

Baghdad

South

More

54%

24%

28%

28%

Same

11%

42%

44%

44%

Less

8%

32%

25%

26%

SOURCES

Al Mustakilla for Research, “100
days of Adel Abd Al-Mahdi’s Government,” February 2019

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the politics, economics, security, culture and history of Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com