Picking & Grinning: UFC Live 4

Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the
line with bold predictions for
UFC Live 4 “Marquardt vs. Story on Sunday at the Consol Energy
Center in Pittsburgh. The event airs on the Versus network at 9
p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT and features a main event between former
middleweight King of Pancrase Nate
Marquardt and Rick
Story.

Tristen Critchfield: Story will likely follow the blueprint
laid out by Chael Sonnen at UFC 109 and look to take Marquardt down
repeatedly. The Grudge Training Center product was a strong
middleweight and should be even stronger at 170, so Story’s task
will be easier said than done. Story will be relentless in
pressuring Marquardt, and against Thiago
Alves, he showed that he could take a punch. Provided he makes
it through the weight cut without losing too much, Marquardt will
be well-rounded enough to win the decision.

Todd Martin: Most of Marquardt’s recent losses at
middleweight have come against much bigger opposition than Rick Story. I
think that’s going to be a big factor against a fighter like Story,
who tries to grind and overwhelm opponents. Marquardt should be
well prepared to control the grappling and has a significant
striking edge. Marquardt’s move down to 170 will start off with a
win.

Brian Knapp: I think 170 pounds will suit Marquardt just
fine, provided he continues to close the holes in his defensive
wrestling. I favor him here because of his well-rounded offensive
game and big-fight experience. With that said, denying Story will
be no easy task. He impressed greatly in his win over a former
welterweight title contender in Alves, as he executed his game plan
to near perfection and showcased the kind of indomitable resilience
that is usually reserved for the greats of the game. Perhaps Story
is on his way, but he hits a speed bump here; Marquardt by close
decision.

Tony Loiseleur: I suppose the real question in this fight is
whether I prefer leg kicks or knees, since those are essentially
the greatest weapons for Barry and Kongo, respectively. To be
honest, however, I can’t pick a favorite but that won’t help my
picking score. Thus, give me Barry to stay on the outside and rack
up low kicks for an eventual decision. I just hope he doesn’t get
stuck in the clinch and fall prey to Kongo’s knees at some point.
Still, if he’s really unlucky, that might happen, and Kongo might
even tip the scales further in his favor if he falls into
point-deducting fouls again.

Freddie DeFreitas: Cue Barry, always the entertainer. Enter
Kongo, the buzz kill. Does anyone else remember when Cheick Kongo
was first introduced to the UFC viewing masses as, to quote UFC
analyst Joe Rogan, “a K-1-level striker?” After his move to the
Wolfslair Academy, the former world muay Thai and European Savate
champion has seemingly shifted his focus to grappling, much to the
collective groans of MMA fans worldwide. Kongo takes the decision
via pinning Barry against the fence for an agonizing 15 minutes. I
believe the over-under for knees to the groin is currently sitting
at four. Call your local bookmaker.

Lutfi Sariahmed: Kongo does these types of bouts well. It’s
when he steps up to better competition that he has come up short in
the past. He will force Barry to bring the bout in close, and Kongo
will get the better of him there. We overlook Kongo at heavyweight
because he’s lost most of his high-profile bouts, but this one
should be manageable for him. Give me Kongo via knockout.

Jordan Breen: Having earned a WEC featherweight title shot,
Gamburyan knows firsthand what can happen when a middling
lightweight drops to 145 pounds. However, we’re starting to see
even better lightweights cut to 145. If this fight was at 155,
there’d be no question: Griffin is superior to Gamburyan in about
every way, save for straight one-punch power. Griffin can box,
wrestle and scramble his way to a decision in this one.

Rob King: Not too many people lose three fights in a row in
the UFC and get another shot, but Griffin’s drop to featherweight
should snap that losing streak. Gamburyan’s best chance at a
victory here is a submission, but Griffin should be able to
neutralize the Armenian with his wrestling and avoid any submission
attempts; Griffin to take a position-based decision.

Tomasz Marciniak: Against Takanori
Gomi, I think Griffin got a bit too comfortable with his
striking, and he needs to be wary of doing the same thing here, as
Gamburyan does not lack power. With that said, the Armenian, save
for the Mike Thomas
Brown fight, had success at featherweight when he was able to
take down his opponent and impose his top game. I don’t think that
is a likely scenario against such a good scrambler like Griffin,
who really should be winning the position game. I like Griffin to
stop his three-fight skid and get rolling at featherweight with a
decision victory.

Guilherme Pinheiro: The only way I see Howard winning this
is by knocking out Brown. Unfortunately for him, Brown is as
durable as they come and has never been knocked out in his career.
I’m not saying it’s not doable, but I don’t believe Brown will be
sucked into a striking battle against such a powerful opponent. I
think Brown has enough skill to put Howard on the ground and finish
him with punches late in the fight.

Martin: When Brown loses, it’s almost always on the ground.
This fight will be an exception to that rule. Brown’s grit and
striking isn’t at the level of Howard’s muay thai. Howard will
control the striking exchanges and pick up an entertaining decision
win.

Knapp: It is hard not to like Brown, a man who embodies the
spirit and toughness that defines this sport. However, I believe he
is outgunned in this matchup, on the feet and on the floor. I
expect Howard, the superior technical fighter, to wobble him
standing and follow him to the ground, where he finishes it in the
second round, either with strikes or a rear-naked choke.

Critchfield: It’s hard to believe that Stevenson, a former
lightweight title contender, is on the verge of his fourth straight
loss in the UFC. Vazquez has a good submission game, but Stevenson
will still try to use his strength advantage and overpower the WEC
veteran on the ground. Eventually, Stevenson overwhelms Vasquez and
finishes the fight via guillotine choke or ground-and-pound.

DeFreitas: The key for Vazquez in this bout is achieving and
maintaining top position, but it may be easier said than done.
While Stevenson’s wrestling is not on the same level of a Chad Mendes,
“Daddy” has an excellent base and should have little trouble
putting Vasquez on his back, provided he doesn’t continue to fancy
himself as an elite boxer -- a lesson he must have learned in the
Mac
Danzig bout. Stevenson would be wise to play carefully within
the Vazquez guard, but one well-placed elbow on years of scar
tissue can do wonders when it comes to coaxing a stoppage;
Stevenson by TKO in round three.

Sariahmed: Fun fight here. Stevenson’s career renaissance
since joining Greg Jackson has hit a bit of a snag here with three
straight losses. Meanwhile “Showtime” is in the middle of a career
renaissance of his own, but his has been derailed by a potential
No. 1 contender at featherweight in Mendes. It’ll be the first UFC
bout for Vasquez, but he’s hardly new to all this. His experience
on the big stage helps here, and his striking game plays a key role
in getting the win over Stevenson.

Loiseleur: Mitrione’s improvement since his stint on “The
Ultimate Fighter,” has been impressive, and I’m looking forward to
seeing just how far his rapid improvement will take him and for how
long he can keep it up. Like his Tim Hague
bout, this fight against Morecraft is another step up to test him.
Morecraft is powerful but tends to be on the reckless side,
absorbing shots on the feet, as well as submission and sweep
attempts on the ground. With his speed and agility, Mitrione could
get some valuable cage time in with Morecraft, evading the charges
to pick him apart with more precise striking; Mitrione by
decision.

King: Mitrione is a stud prospect, and he is being groomed
by the UFC to ease his way into the top tier. Good matchmaking by
Joe Silva here should keep Mitrione on that track. Morecraft has
some submissions skills and can hang on the mat, but Mitrione has a
huge advantage here on his feet with his ever improving striking,
and he should be able to pound out Morecraft to get a late
stoppage.

Marciniak: While some doubts linger about Mitrione’s
striking defense, he was eating quite a few shots from Joey
Beltran; the former NFL player never flinched and displayed a
stout beard. On the offense, Mitrione is a significantly better
fighter and, provided he can avoid the takedown, should be winning
the exchanges. I’m still not sure what to expect of Mitrione should
he be put on his back repeatedly, but I’ll pick him to keep it
upright and get the win regardless.