Winners and losers in the congressional redistricting court decision

With all due deference to Hollywood’s famous villain Gordon Gekko, greed is not always good.

Greed can lead to hubris. Hubris can lead to breaking the law. Breaking the law can have consequences.

Bernie Madoff learned it the hard way. And he’s doing hard time.

Rick Perry and the Republican leadership of the Texas legislature learned it the hard way on Thanksgiving eve — when the federal judiciary redrew the Texas GOP’s congressional redistricting plan that got so greedy that it violated the 1965 federal Voting Rights Act.

Now, a bunch of Republicans are going to have a hard time — politically speaking — in the 2012 elections.

Here are our winners and losers from the redistricting plan. We’re sticking to possible candidates. The obvious political losers (Governor Perry, LG Dewhurst, Speaker Straus and the GOP redistricting braintrust) need no further elaboration.

BIG WINNERS

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D): The liberal leader of the Texas Democratic delegation was the top target of Austin Republicans. The result was a bizarre gerrymandered concoction that completely shredded Austin and Travis County. The federal court plan restored logic — and a pretty safe seat for Doggett.

State Rep. Joaquin Castro (D): The San Antonio legislator, brother of the mayor and rising star in his own right won’t have to run against Doggett in an expensive and difficult primary. It’s always a mistake to get too cocky (see Republican legislative greed, above), but it seems likely that one of the Castro brothers will soon be Congressman Castro.

Nick Lampson: Will he win a congressional seat in his third district in a decade? (AP photo)

WINNERS

State Sen. Mike Jackson (R): The conservative legislator from LaPorte is the early favorite in the new 36th District, which stretches from the Houston area to the Louisiana border. The district — the most logical addition by the legislature of the four new districts — survived the legal challenge.

Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D): Republicans destroyed his Beaumont-based district in the DeLay-inspired 2003 redistricting. Lampson lost his seat, then won DeLay’s seat, then lost DeLay’s seat. Now he has a fighting chance in the 14th District, long represented by Ron Paul. It now includes his political base in Beaumont and many of the constituents Lampson has previously represented.

LOSERS

Rep. John Culberson (R): His district will become more Democratic. He should be safe in 2012 or a “normal” Republican year, but he could be endanged by a Democratic tide or, over time, by the continuing demographic shifts in Harris County.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R): His bizarrely shaped district stretching from Harris County to Travis County remains, but it’s been changed once again. It is less Republican than the GOP legislature’s iteration. As long as he remains in Congress, he’ll have to be careful not to take the race for granted. And if McCaul ever seeks statewide office — and we wouldn’t be surprised if he does — this would be a swing district, slightly Republican-leaning but up for grabs.

Rep. Joe Barton (R): He could find himself vulnerable in a more Democratic district.

Rep. Blake Farenthold (R): The Corpus Christi freshman will no longer represent the 27th District. He was placed into a new district that, while conservative, is not familiar with him. He could be threatened in a GOP primary in a district with a lot of new constituents.

BIG LOSERS

Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco (R): The San Antonio conservative narrowly won in a swing district in a very Republican year. The new lines give Democrats an even better chance to reclaim the seat. Now all they need is a candidate.

Former Secretary of State Roger Williams (R): The legislature designed a 33rd District that was tailor-made for Williams’ congressional aspirations. He now is lumped into a district currently represented by incumbent Republican Kay Granger. If Williams runs in the new 33rd District, he’ll have an uphill fight in a majority-minority new district.

Former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R): He is a congressional candidate without an obvious district to run in. The two districts that would have been naturals for him now lean Democratic. He may be the man without a district. For now.