Nick Saban has been quoted as saying he is looking for an impact player, with the 16th pick in the draft, on either defense or offense. With all the baggage Lavar Arrington would have brought with him, it is very telling that Saban was still willing to pay him $5 million a year. It demonstrates very clearly that Nick wants difference-makers or game-changers. That said, there are a few players in the draft that fit that description.

On defense, Manny Lawson, Jason Allen, Antonio Cromartie, and Donte Whitner probably best fit that description, have minimal baggage, and should be available at #16. Although all have question marks, Cromartie and Allen are coming off injuries, Whitner is a bit undersized, and Lawson is a 'tweener who may not be a great pro at 1 position. I would be quite happy with any of these guys, but the one player that seems to have the smarts (great Wonderlic score), leadership, good character, great athletic ability, and best big play potential is Manny Lawson. Since we passed on Arrington, I think Lawson is the guy we pick at #16 if Nick wants to go defense. Hopefully, we could pick up Pat Watkins, safety, in the 3rd round to fill the safety gap.

On offense, I prefer to pass on any QB in the 1st round, which means we're probably limited to RB or WR, in terms of a major impact player. If Justice drops (I doubt he will) that would be a consideration. I don't think Jackson will be there for us, so I see Santonio Holmes as the most likely pick on offense. If Ricky is lost, possibly DeAngelo Williams, but I think Holmes is the obvious pick if Nick goes offense.

Bottom line.....I think we go Lawson or Holmes with the #16 pick. I'm picking Manny Lawson because he fits every criteria that Saban has used to determine an impact player. He has a tremendous upside and may be the next Jason Taylor, but more importantly, Manny just needs to be the best Manny Lawson, a future Pro-Bowler.

Jimmy James

04-24-2006, 02:35 PM

I know it freaks people out when I suggest this because most mocks have him going in the 20s, but Bobby Carpenter is the guy for this Dolphins team. He's a made to order fit for the strongside linebacker role.

I would be quite happy with any of these guys, but the one player that seems to have the smarts (great Wonderlic score), leadership, good character, great athletic ability, and best big play potential is Manny Lawson.

He's definately has some of the biggest upside of anyone in the drafts, but so does Cromartie. Lawson has been compared to Jason Taylor, while Cromartie has been compared to Deion Sanders by Mickey Andrews (who coached them both). If you assume that both were to reach such lofty status, who would you rather have, Jason Taylor or Deion Sanders? This would be a tough choice were it not for the fact that we already have Jason Taylor and he still has quite a bit of football left in him. Lawson will not be brought in to be the pass rushing specialist at the OLB position, JT fills that role. The OLB we draft will need to be an LB first, and while Lawson has some experience as an LB, its not his position right now. Meanwhile, our secondary already has less talent overall (a lot less) than our LB corps.

Bottom line, I wont be unhappy with any of the guys you mentioned. The only players I see talked about that I dislike are Chad Jackson and Jimmy Williams. Jackson's stock is based too heavily on his combine #'s for my liking, and his main advantage over Holmes (size) isn't as important in a WR these days. Williams is an underachiever with attitude problems, he's got bust written all over him, IMHO.

As far as the offensive players, I think Winston Justice has a shot to slip all the way to 16, but I'm not sure I'd take him then. We could use OL help, but not at the tackle position. LJ on one side and either Carey, Alabi, or DMac on the other is fine. The guy who needs to be replaced is McKinney, either by a C that we draft or by Hadnot after we pick up a guard. If we stay at 16, Holmes is pretty much the only offensive player I could see us drafting.

Dolfan1000

04-24-2006, 04:04 PM

I would have no problem with Bobby Carpenter- obviously it would be better to trade down, and still have the opportunity to draft him in the 20s, but I think he is an excellent fit.

FinFan57

04-24-2006, 04:07 PM

I know it freaks people out when I suggest this because most mocks have him going in the 20s, but Bobby Carpenter is the guy for this Dolphins team. He's a made to order fit for the strongside linebacker role.

Bobby Carpenter is a great player and I wouldn't necessarily complain if we picked him at #16, but I don't think he offers the game-changing, play-making abilities as Lawson on defense or Holmes on offense.

For what it's worth, I asked Boomer about Carpenter, and he indicated that Carpenter isn't the best fit for our defense and he doesn't believe we'll pick him.

Scott Wright (NFL Draft Countdown) considers Carpenter one of the most underrated players in the draft. He could be a good fit as a 3-4 OLB. I just think Lawson has the best upside and should be a good cover and rush LB, and maybe the guy who takes over for Jason one day also.

Jimmy James

04-24-2006, 04:08 PM

I would have no problem with Bobby Carpenter- obviously it would be better to trade down, and still have the opportunity to draft him in the 20s, but I think he is an excellent fit.

If Nick really thinks he will be there, I would also have no problem with executing a trade down if one is available. That's the big problem, though -- will there be offers made? It's also a pretty big question as to whether he really will fall to the Giants like many mocks indicate. I think that has a lot to do with his dad and people making mocks that have a cutesy family connection. The Giants obviously need some sort of linebacker (I would argue even after Arrington), so that makes it all the more appealing. If Nick could trade into the 20s and get him, great. I don't think Nick will just blow him off and take a player who isn't as good a fit for the team because he is worried that Kiper will be pissed, though. It's all about Nick's own board based in large part on what fits his schemes.

FinFan57

04-24-2006, 04:15 PM

No question about it, Mickey Andrews should know if Cromartie compares to Deion or not, but coaches do tend to sell their players. That said, Cromartie does appear to have the potential to be a great corner. Problem is that we don't use a press coverage and the corners aren't required to have the type of skills that Pat and Sam had.

Saban wants an aggressive front 7 and that is why he went after Arrington. He wants great athletes who can change a game with QB pressure, sacks, and other disruptions. Lawson could be a better version of Arrington. Lawson and Taylor with Matt Roth and Manny Wright in the middle would be awesome.

Sal Lisitano

04-24-2006, 04:50 PM

I know it freaks people out when I suggest this because most mocks have him going in the 20s, but Bobby Carpenter is the guy for this Dolphins team. He's a made to order fit for the strongside linebacker role.

funny how you say this...

just last week i was talking to a friend of mine who's a big giants fan...and he does a lot of reading and research on the nfl draft...and he tapes college games during the season and will than break them out right before the draft to look at players he likes coming out...needless to say...he does his homework before the draft...

well...since the giants and fins have been in the running for arrington...all he's been saying is...gosh i hope he signs with you...i don't want arrington in new york...because he never lived up to all the hype when he came out of penn state and he's got two bad knees...okay here was his point...

he said...you might think i'm crazy but the giants should look at bobby carpenter...he said that he really believes that carpenter is a better "football" player...the empasis is on football player than a.j. hawk who many have ranked higher than bobby carpenter...and who many think may very well be the best defensive player coming out of the draft...my friend has said to me countless times now...you wait n see...the bobby carpenter guy is going to be a great football player in the nfl...he has all the intangibles and is very good in coverage.

he kept saying...the giants would be stupid to sign arrington when they could get someone younger with a huge upside on bobby carpenter...he also said that the Fins would be stupid not to take him at 16.

I kind of hope we don't draft allen because of his injured hip...if we do i hope they are sure that he's ready to play...i have a feeling that nick will draft an sec player with the 16 pick in 2006...and allen fits the teams needs and he's an sec player.

Go Fins!!!

PhinsPhan

04-24-2006, 04:58 PM

I'd agree with that.

He's definately has some of the biggest upside of anyone in the drafts, but so does Cromartie. Lawson has been compared to Jason Taylor, while Cromartie has been compared to Deion Sanders by Mickey Andrews (who coached them both). If you assume that both were to reach such lofty status, who would you rather have, Jason Taylor or Deion Sanders? This would be a tough choice were it not for the fact that we already have Jason Taylor and he still has quite a bit of football left in him. Lawson will not be brought in to be the pass rushing specialist at the OLB position, JT fills that role. The OLB we draft will need to be an LB first, and while Lawson has some experience as an LB, its not his position right now. Meanwhile, our secondary already has less talent overall (a lot less) than our LB corps.

Bottom line, I wont be unhappy with any of the guys you mentioned. The only players I see talked about that I dislike are Chad Jackson and Jimmy Williams. Jackson's stock is based too heavily on his combine #'s for my liking, and his main advantage over Holmes (size) isn't as important in a WR these days. Williams is an underachiever with attitude problems, he's got bust written all over him, IMHO.

As far as the offensive players, I think Winston Justice has a shot to slip all the way to 16, but I'm not sure I'd take him then. We could use OL help, but not at the tackle position. LJ on one side and either Carey, Alabi, or DMac on the other is fine. The guy who needs to be replaced is McKinney, either by a C that we draft or by Hadnot after we pick up a guard. If we stay at 16, Holmes is pretty much the only offensive player I could see us drafting.

I would write out my opinion but you already did. I don't want Jackson or Williams. But I especially dont want Williams. Justice would be nice but under Houck I would rather develop those we already have or draft someone in the 7th and try and develop him than to use our 1st round pick on another OT. Being picked in the first doesn't necessarily mean success in any position in the NFL but there are alot of Olinemen out there that were picked in the late late rounds.

The only downside I keep hearing about Holmes is his size and yet the best receiver last year was 5'9". With the rule changes size has become less of an issue and you no longer need the 6'3" 220 lbs receivers that can fend off bumps deep in their routes.

The Cromartie comparison though is a bit loose. You always hear comparisons and they are rarely made with accuracy in mind. I think more than anything he gets the comparison because of his all around athleticism and the fact he has such good hands he could play both ways.

I will be fine with anyone else that is choosen and I wouldn't mind picking Holmes / Lawson / Cromartie / Carpenter / Whitner in that order.