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HAGEL’S FATE HANGS ON KEY DEMOCRATIC SENATORS — Chuck Hagel’s SecDef nomination could be all but secured with commitments from lawmakers within the president’s own party — but some notable senators remain undecided. “It’s all about [Sens. Robert] Menendez, [Kirsten] Gillibrand and [Chuck] Schumer,” said one Democrat who worked on Jewish outreach on behalf of President Barack Obama during his 2012 campaign — but who opposes Hagel. Tim has the full story, for Pros: http://politico.pro/XzxLpg

SIREN: SCHUMER A TOUGH SELL — The New York senator has privately told colleagues it would be “very hard” for him to support Hagel due to Hagel’s prior positions on Israel, POLITICO has confirmed. And a Schumer ‘no’ vote could open the floodgates. As a top-ranking Senate Democrat, Schumer’s opposition could provide Gillibrand, a fellow Democrat from New York with similar political imperatives, cover to buck the president’s choice.

BUT BOXER BACKS HAGEL – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), after extensive phone and written consultations with Hagel, said in a statement Monday night that she’ll support his nomination. Manu Raju has the details here: http://politi.co/XanGgr

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — The Senate Armed Services Committee is expected to hold its Hagel confirmation hearing late this month or early next, said an official close to the process. “Nothing’s firmed up,” the official told Morning D, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Hagel will be holding dozens of meetings with Senators over the coming weeks.”

-- IN ADDITION, the Senate Intelligence Committee has scheduled its confirmation hearing for John Brennan, tapped to be the next CIA director, for Feb. 7, Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/13wUzdK

-- AND … Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is set to testify on Jan. 23 before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the September attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya, CNN reports. http://bit.ly/ZR0Ps1

HAPPY TUESDAY AND WELCOME TO MORNING DEFENSE, where we couldn’t help but notice a sign in the Pentagon yesterday that said, “Payphone now operational.” Just in time. Keep the tips, pitches and feedback coming to awright@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter @morningdefense, @abwrig and @POLITICOPro.

HAPPENING TODAY: SNA SYMPOSIUM KICKS OFF — The Surface Navy Association’s 25th National Symposium begins today at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Crystal City. Speakers include Navy Vice Adm. Tom Copeman, commander of Naval Surface Forces, and Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy Mike Stevens. But the big day is Thursday, which will feature speeches by Navy Secretary Ray Mabus, Undersecretary of the Navy Robert Work and Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Robert Papp. Here’s the full lineup: http://bit.ly/W4TOCT

ALSO TODAY: HASC HEARING — The House Armed Services Committee will sit for the first time in the 113th Congress for an “organizational meeting” at 11:30 a.m. in Rayburn 2118. The purpose of the meeting is to ratify the committee’s rules.

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WAR REPORT: PANETTA SAYS U.S. WILL KEEP AIDING THE FRENCH IN MALI — Leon Panetta yesterday discussed the French campaign against rebel fighters in Mali, telling reporters the Air Force and the other services will “provide logistical support and intelligence support where we can to assist them in that effort.” Asked specifically whether American aerial refueling tankers would be involved, Panetta said “there will be some areas of airlift where we will try to be able to assist them, as well.”

Panetta dodged a question about whether the U.S. was providing surveillance drones. “I’m not going to get into the particulars of exactly the assistance we’ll provide, other than to say we’ll — we will assist them in the intelligence arena.” Phil has the details, for Pros: http://politico.pro/WHmbpB

-- TOP QUOTE: PANETTA, ON ‘ZERO DARK THIRTY’ — The Defense secretary, responding yesterday to a reporter who asked him what he thought of the film, said: “You know what? I lived it.” Transcript: http://1.usa.gov/VGfLLE

-- WHERE IN THE WORLD? Panetta has landed in Portugal for the first stop of what’s likely to be his last foreign trip as SecDef. He is scheduled to meet with Foreign Minister Paulo Portas and Defense Minister José Pedro Aguiar-Branco, according to American Forces Press Service. http://1.usa.gov/13wvFeg

TRIVIA TIME — On this day in 2009, Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger performed the “Miracle on the Hudson,” safely landing a plane in the Hudson River after its engines had failed because of a collision with a flock of geese, according to the History Channel. Sullenberger, a former Air Force pilot, attained what rank in the service? For the answer, read on.

AVIATION WEEK’S 2012 PERSON OF THE YEAR: ANGELA MERKEL, for her role in killing the proposed EADS-BAE mega-merger. In its latest cover story, Aviation Week explains the pivotal role the German chancellor played in the collapse of the deal, which would have resulted in the world’s largest aerospace company. Here’s a taste:

“Merkel simply did not want the merger and not even France’s President Francois Hollande and Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron could do anything about it. On Oct. 9, a day before a regulatory deadline expired, Merkel called Hollande and told him that she did not want things to proceed. And when Cameron then tried to reach her for a last-ditch attempt to rescue the deal, she would not even pick up the phone, insiders say.”

TOP TALKER: ‘2012 MILITARY SUICIDES HIT RECORD HIGH OF 349,’ by the AP’s Robert Burns — “Suicides in the U.S. military surged to a record 349 last year, far exceeding American combat deaths in Afghanistan, and some private experts are predicting the dark trend will worsen this year. The Pentagon has struggled to deal with the suicides, which Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and others have called an epidemic. The problem reflects severe strains on military personnel burdened with more than a decade of combat in Afghanistan and Iraq, complicated by anxiety over the prospect of being forced out of a shrinking force.” http://bit.ly/11v4tNn

WHO’S WHERE WHEN --

7:40 a.m.: Acting Undersecretary of the Air Force Jamie Morin speaks at the Air Force Association’s January Air Force Breakfast Program, in Arlington, Va.

3 p.m.: Retired Brig. Gen. Feroz Khan, of the Naval Postgraduate School, and Zachary Davis, of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, discuss “Transparency and Deterrence Stability in South Asia” at the Stimson Center, in Washington.

(NOT) MAKING MOVES: JANET NAPOLITANO TO STAY ON — The Homeland Security secretary will remain in her post, a White House official confirms to POLITICO. More here: http://politi.co/Va8pi5

-- FORMER REP. ROTHMAN JOINS LAW FIRM -- Former Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman of New Jersey is joining the law firm Sills Cummis & Gross to start a new defense lobbying unit, reports Jeremy Herb of The Hill. http://bit.ly/ZPNnEE

HASC REELING FROM THE LOSS OF DOUG ROACH — Members of Congress and former colleagues yesterday remembered Doug Roach, a longtime HASC professional staffer who lost his battle with cancer on Friday at the age of 70, as a fixture on the committee. “This weekend America lost a selfless servant and true hero,” said committee Chairman Buck McKeon. “Doug Roach was more than a member of my staff, he was an institution. We are deeply saddened by his loss.”

McKeon continued: “My colleagues and I had come to rely on Doug’s council and guidance on a variety of issues and he always gave it to us straight, without regard to politics or parochial interests. He was trusted and admired by Republicans and Democrats alike. He was a man of noble virtue, a tough fighter pilot who was also known for his acts of kindness.”

Roach, a retired Air Force colonel, served on the committee’s staff from 1991 to 1997 and from 2001 to the present. During his time in the Air Force, Roach served as an instructor pilot for the F-15 and F-4 aircraft and flew 516 combat missions as an aircraft commander. He also served as an instructor pilot in Southeast Asia from 1969 to 1972.

“Doug Roach was a war hero, a dedicated public servant, and a selfless man. He was also my friend,” said Rep. Adam Smith, the ranking Democrat on the committee. “Throughout my time on the House Armed Services Committee, I have relied on Doug for his knowledge and expertise. He cannot be replaced and he will be deeply missed.”

Roach was battling cancer and undergoing chemotherapy treatment when he contracted the flu, which rapidly turned into pneumonia. He was working on the issues he thought were important until the very end of his life, helping shape the 2013 defense authorization bill and working to get it passed in December. As late as last week, Roach was still coming to work on Capitol Hill. When he fell ill, staff drove him to the hospital.

“He’s one of the finest professional staffers I’ve ever known,” said former HASC Chairman Ike Skelton, a Democrat. “I knew him for many, many years. He accompanied me in 1978 as an Air Force officer to Vietnam to bring back remains of American flyers who were killed in the Vietnam War and he’s been a great friend ever since. We sure will miss him.”

TODAY’S TRIVIA ANSWER — Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger attained the rank of Captain during his time in the Air Force. From his official biography: “Upon graduation from the [Air Force] Academy, Sullenberger served as a fighter pilot for the United States Air Force from 1975 to 1980. He advanced to become a flight leader and a training officer, attaining the rank of captain. During his active duty, he was stationed in North America and Europe.” http://bit.ly/SBgRZP

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