Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico... expected track for the next couple days will be very erratic, then taking a generally northwestward movement. Current forecast track pushes Nate into northeast Mexico in about 5 days... though deviation into southern Texas is possible.

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Better than Vista, and 30% more cats than last year's model!

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexanSam

For being the most intelligent form of life on our planet, we sure do some incredibly stupid things.

Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico... expected track for the next couple days will be very erratic, then taking a generally northwestward movement. Current forecast track pushes Nate into northeast Mexico in about 5 days... though deviation into southern Texas is possible.

I feel like I was just Rickrolled. I have been in the know about the Freaky Friday stuff from the get go, however, I was in this thread earlier and read your post, but left thinking it was Thorn. Then I saw that brakos82 had the latest message in the thread and thought it was an update to Thorn's, but then found old timey war guy.

I feel like I was just Rickrolled. I have been in the know about the Freaky Friday stuff from the get go, however, I was in this thread earlier and read your post, but left thinking it was Thorn. Then I saw that brakos82 had the latest message in the thread and thought it was an update to Thorn's, but then found old timey war guy.

TrapStar

Well you and TS Nate can kiss my ass!

__________________
Better than Vista, and 30% more cats than last year's model!

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexanSam

For being the most intelligent form of life on our planet, we sure do some incredibly stupid things.

Tropical Storm Nate continues to sit in the Bay of Campeche... has nearly become a hurricane. Forecast track is slightly more favorable for a south Texas landfall... though impacts won't be felt for several days. NHC forecasts bring Nate to a cat-2 by Sunday, holding strength through at least Tues with the center still well off-shore.

Tropical Storm Maria is struggling to organize itself... could become a tropical depression or remnant low within the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Katia... though it has a wide rain field, is staying off-shore from the Carolinas... No impacts expected from Katia, other than moderate surf along the eastern seaboard.

__________________
Better than Vista, and 30% more cats than last year's model!

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexanSam

For being the most intelligent form of life on our planet, we sure do some incredibly stupid things.

Those who watch the tropics closely have been pinging me to ask about a possible hurricane striking the coast in about 10 to 12 days time.

That’s because one of the major global forecast models, the GFS, has been advertising this possibility for a couple of days. The latest forecast run, for example, brings a rather large system to the Texas coast on June 23.

I’m generally skeptical about such strong storms this early in the season, and regard models after seven to 10 days to have very little basis in reality. But what about this storm?

For some insight I turned to Chris Hebert, a tropics expert at ImpactWeather. Here are his thoughts:

I’d take that with a grain of salt. For the past week, the GFS, along with the European and Canadian models, has been hinting at possible tropical development in the western Caribbean and/or southern Gulf of Mexico between June 17 and 22.

The long-range GFS has also been predicting the movement of an MJO pulse into the East Pacific by next weekend. The linked map indicates increased lifting resulting in increased thunderstorm activity into the NW Caribbean by next weekend. The Wheeler diagram also indicates a moderate MJO in the longer range:

The bottom line is that all available model guidance has been at least hinting at possible development in the western Caribbean and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico between next Sunday through next Friday. Currently, thunderstorm activity in the region remains minimal. There are no disturbances to focus on.

However, the models actually did predict “something” developing either in the western Caribbean or off the East U.S. Coast about 10-14 days before Beryl developed. They obviously are picking up on something, so I think that the best course of action is to keep an eye on the western Caribbean over the next week to see if there is any increase in thunderstorm activity. If thunderstorms do blossom in the region, then there might be some chance of development.

Shouldn't we have a new thread for 2012, or change the date in this threads title?

In any case, I've already been squirrling away my hurricane supplys for this year. I've got one week of non-perishable food in the cabinet and 8 cases of water. I still need to check my flashlights and batteries, and the first aid kit. And the portable radio.