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If Theresa May strikes her Irish border deal with Brussels, she will set sail on a course that will lead to Britain being marooned in a customs union with the EU, powerless to navigate its own independent trade policy.

Britain is expected to offer a compromise that would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU if it cannot agree a free trade deal with no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This “backstop”, if agreed by the EU, could be triggered if a UK-EU trade deal is not negotiated by the end of 2020.

While Britain wants the backstop to be temporary, the EU insists it cannot be limited in time, which raises the possibility of the UK being stuck in a customs...