Their writeup basically sums up as: "If Jonas turns into a monster, the Raptors can make a playoff push. If he doesn't, a tank is in order."

Not really a surprise. 7-11 are all the teams being speculated on in the forums as battling for the final 2 playoff spots. 12-15 are the teams widely considered to be tanking (or in the Bobcats case, still terrible). I think you could rearrange 7-11 any way you want and it would look plausible. Maybe even throw Atlanta in there too, but I'm a firm believer that they got better this offseason, or at least will be as good as they were last year.

Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.

Yet you don't look at the FG attempts per game! Iggy averaged 11 shots per game while Gay averaged 18 per game. He take 7 extra shots just to score 5 more points. You make it sound like just because Gay has a higher PPG than Iggy, he's more efficient at shooting which isn't true given that he take 7 more shots than Iggy just to score 5 points.

Yet you don't look at the FG attempts per game! Iggy averaged 11 shots per game while Gay averaged 18 per game. He take 7 extra shots just to score 5 more points. You make it sound like just because Gay has a higher PPG than Iggy, he's more efficient at shooting which isn't true given that he take 7 more shots than Iggy just to score 5 points.

Ok stop this argument. Rudy Gay is a better offensive player than Iggy. His just more offensively polished.

I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.

Firstly, you're making up bullshit on Redick trades involving Demar and Gay! No one in this forum has suggested trading DeRozan for Redick in a trade proposal outside of Tenforthewin which doesn't count because he's just here to troll. I've only seen two trades that involve Dudley which I agree isn't ideal, but both of them include Demar. The whole premise behind those trades are because it is true that there is a redundancy in having both Demar and Gay who are both unable to hit outside shots efficiently. So having a spot up shooter that takes high percentage open shots is ideal since it frees up more Gay to do what he does. Just to put it out there, I'm not an advocate of trading either.

Secondly, you're comparing people of massively different contract levels and massively different talent levels! Spot up shooters like Dudley and Redick will never ever see a check for $10+ million per year. The only spot up shooter that comes to mind that made a shit ton of money is Ray Allen when he was with the Celtics which is easily understandable since he was playing on a whole other level to Dudley and Redick. He was one of the best 3 points shooter in NBA history, and clutch. You basically using Dudley and Redick as an example to make your point seem valid which is flawed for the varies reason. Obviously if they tried to create points in isolation their TS% would plummet because that's not their game! On the other hand, Gay's game is pure straight up isolation shooter.

Fianlly, stats and analytic are the only way for us fans to judge especially since we don't have access to clips and the majority of fans don't have access/subscriptions to advanced stats provided from sites such as SynergySports.

\ No one in this forum has suggested trading DeRozan for Redick in a trade proposal outside of Tenforthewin which doesn't count because he's just here to troll.

does troll mean enlighten or dominate in your world.

haha, sorry.

i would like to point out that when iggy came into the league he was a very gifted offensive player to the extent that the 6ers chose him over iverson. i would prefer iggy to gay 10 out of 10 times. i think gay has a larger offensive repertoire though.

i would like to point out that when iggy came into the league he was a very gifted offensive player to the extent that the 6ers chose him over iverson. i would prefer iggy to gay 10 out of 10 times. i think gay has a larger offensive repertoire though.

Exactly! Gay doesn't have that much better of an offensive game. Like you said, he has more ways to score. Gay is more of an isolation play while Iggy is more of a spot up shooter. Iggy has an overall better skill set because he can score and defend which makes him much more appealing as a player to most teams compared to Gay.

i would like to point out that when iggy came into the league he was a very gifted offensive player to the extent that the 6ers chose him over iverson. i would prefer iggy to gay 10 out of 10 times. i think gay has a larger offensive repertoire though.

As for troll, I do mean enlighten and dominate in your role! TFTW is the best and most informational poster ever

Are we really arguing Iggy's shooting over Gay? As someone pointed out Rudy's shooting % is not any lower over his entire career and he takes high volume shots. We all know what Iggy brings to the game and scoring is not one of them. Gay may be worth keeping if we re-sign him on a 48million/4 year deal. But I expect him to demand more (60m/4y) after a productive season and we are not exactly known for securing bargain deals. Rudy will sit out the 18million expiring contract if he does not like what is being offered and we may end up losing him for nothing after 2 years of mid-range draft picks. It may be a good idea to trade him and Lowry midway if we are nowhere close to securing a playoff spot. As Lowe says, if there was a season to blow it all up - this is it. Andrew Wiggins or die.

Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.

I'm not arguing Iggy is a better solo offensive player than Rudy is; Rudy can explode and is more of a danger at any time than Iggy is, and Rudy can create his own shot opportunities. But Iggy is a facilitator where Rudy simply is not; Iggy is better at creating opportunities and making shots for other people. Frankly, I think Iggy would be better on the Raptors right now than Rudy is; he would facilitate DeMar (who duplicates Rudy's game, albeit at a lower level) and synergize well with both Kyle's drive-and-kick game and Amir/Jonas working the paint. Given that there seems to be an increasing consensus that Jonas is going to emerge in the next year or two as this team's primary offensive weapon, that matters.

And, crucially, Iggy is better at defending than Rudy is. This is not to say that Rudy is a sieve; he's a decent enough defender. But Iggy is much, much better at it, and would likely fit in with Casey's game plan better.

Personally, I'd prefer Iggy over Gay. I acknowledge that Gay is certainly the better offensive weapon, and if we had Iggy in our lineup instead of Gay it would certainly hurt us late in the clock and in those situations that demands a clutch ISO shooter. Not that I think Gay is all that clutch, but certainly moreso than Iggy. What I like about Iggy is his all around game, and the fact that he can have an impact without filling up the stat sheet. He does possess the abiltity to score and rebound and all that, but he can also force opposing offences into bad shot situations, something there is no stat to quantify. He is an "intangible" guy that can also score, rebound, steal and block shots. Plus, I think he has a better approach to the game than Rudy, but I'm just guessing here. Rudy seems to lackadaisical for me, sometimes he just doesn't seem that into it, and that hurts because we are relying on him to take the team on his shoulders when we are struggling. We are down by 8 late the game, need a big shot, give it to Rudy, who misses, and then takes a brisk walk back on defense while chirping to the refs and his defensive assignment scores on the other end. That shit don't jive with me, and you're not likely to get that from Iggy. Iggy seems to give 110% every time, although that's hard for me to say because i certainly haven't seen Iggy play every game. But if Iggy has ever appeared lazy or nonchalant on the court, I have yet to witness it or hear anyone mention it.

I'll also acknowledge that I think Gay has the potential to have that really impactful all around game, while still being a 20-25 ppg type player. I wanna see the effort consistently on both ends of the floor.

The thing about Iggy, is that at this point in his career he is no longer a "go to" guy. His last couple of years in Philly was an example of how much he blends into the crowd. He fits well in Denver and now presumambly in Golden State where he doesn't need to be the man. On a team like the Raptors where there isn't any star talent I think maybe Gay is the better fit between the two.

I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.

What about the "stat-geeks" who point out DeRozan's inefficiency, AND his inability to create shots?

Can we all agree that the season would be a disaster if these predictions are accurate?

Yes....But it might not be the Raps fault, even if Ujiri goes tank mode. It would be hard to be as bad as Philly, Charlotte and Orlando, and it definitely seems likely that Boston will buy into a full on tank job.

*This is why I'm ok with just trying to make a go of it with this roster for this season, and hope it works out. I don't like the Raptors tanking window this year. Frankly, they had an excellent window last year after the shit start, but instead kept trying to compete.