why SWM-onset along Kerala coast will be weaker?? why BOB-SWM branch going to stay in lull-mode?

1) there is no strong MJO-pulse over phase 2 or 3.
2) most importantly “shear gradient” between equator & 20 N” is very low. Hence SWM-Arabian current is very weak.

Note:
1. Equator VWS is 20knt & 20 N is 5knt. The difference is 15 knt, which is very low gradient. Hence weaker SWM-onset. If this equator VWS could be at 50-60 knt then SWM-onset might be very powerful.
2. Moreover low shear pattern around Arabian ocean side near 20N has not established properly.
3. High shear over BOB is the consequence of Elnino-pattern. This is not good, which makes BOB to stay in “lull mode” in coming days.

Invest 92E over east-pacific ocean forecasted to become major-hurricane. Till that east-pacific hurricane weakens there won’t be any change in BOB-SWM front.

Reason:
East pacific hurricanes formation is the indication of the walker circulation more towards eastern pacific (thus strengthening of Elnino). So descending limb of walker circulation will be over BOB & adjoining West-pacific.

So high shear over BOB, which may weaken/progression of SWM-current.

Note:
1) Very interesting fact is that east-pacific hurricanes “interlinked” with Arabian-systems through Elnino related walker-circulation.

2) whenever there is as strong-system (hurricane cat.) over east-pacific, then Arabian will hoist weaker systems like Depressions/DDs.

Whenever there is a weak system over east-pacific region, then Arabian ocean will set a stronger system (TS or above).

The above analogy has >95% probability irrespective of ENSO-strength. This clearly indicates some important interlink between East-pacific & Arabian systems.

Why in Elnno years east-pacific hosts more powerful hurricanes?? Answer is so simple. For Elnino establishment, MJO will make frequent rounds around date line (phase 7) with good amplitude (>1). This good amplitude in MJO will enhances the WWB, which carry the warm mosit air towards eastern pacific (apart from warm EKW). Thus Elnino conditions will establish, which in turn east-pacific to host powerful systems.

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