Low turnout election does not favor Clinton

...
But there may be something to learn from CNN/ORC's decision to whittle their sample down to likely voters. The Clinton campaign's goal has been to replicate Barack Obama's 51 percent coalition in 2012. Assembling that coalition relied on spurring turnout among black, Hispanic and young voters.

There are plenty of signs Clinton is poorly positioned to do that. Black turnout and Democratic percentage is likely to be down, at least slightly, from when the first black president was seeking re-election. Polls have shown Hispanics are less interested and motivated by this campaign than just about any other demographic group.

Young voters, while repelled by Trump, are not attracted by Clinton. She ran way behind Bernie Sanders among young women as well as young men in primaries and caucuses. Four-candidate polls typically show Clinton running far behind the 60 percent Obama won among under-30s in 2012, with as many as 20 percent preferring Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green candidate Jill Stein.

So turnout could tilt more Republican this time. And these polls mostly don't measure the impact of notes and summary of Clinton's pre-July 4 weekend FBI interviews. They were released late Friday afternoon before the Labor Day weekend, and only two current national polls included some interviews conducted afterwards.

So most respondents had no time to digest the juicy bits, including the BleachBit destruction of thousands of emails after they were subpoenaed by the House Benghazi committee. And the fact that Clinton used not one email device, as she claimed in March 2015, but at least 13, and that at least eight were lost and two smashed with a hammer. When asked about the (C) notations on documents, Clinton said that perhaps they had something to do about alphabetical order, even though there there were no (A)s, (B)s or (D)s. The candidate touted as the most qualified ever professed deep ignorance about government classification practices.

According to polls, more than 60 percent of Americans believe Clinton is not honest or trustworthy. The FBI interview notes provide further convincing evidence that she is a liar and a cheat....

It has been my feeling for some time that this will be a low-turnout election. Both candidates suck to a considerable percentage of the voters. The chore of going to the polls and determining which one of these crap sandwiches of a candidate to support is not an appetizing thought.

Many young voters loathe Trump but lack enthusiasm for Clinton, and many college-educated suburban Republicans find Trump scary but struggle with the idea of voting for a Democrat. “I’m just lost,” says one Pennsylvania voter

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