A - January G - July B - February H - August C - March I - SeptemberD - April J - OctoberE - May K - NovemberF - June L - December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

44% approval is roughly the break-even point (50/50) for an incumbent's win. I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.

But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 14-15 by Public Opinion Strategies. The Retail Association of Nevada, a conservative business and lobbying group active in Carson City, has commissioned five polls, approximately every six months. The poll has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

The results of the latest Winthrop Poll taken between September 11-18, 2011 are in. The poll interviewed 1552 registered voters from South Carolina. Results which use all respondents have a margin of error of +/- 2.49% at the 95% confidence level.

The results of the latest Winthrop Poll taken between September 11-18, 2011 are in. The poll interviewed 1552 registered voters from South Carolina. Results which use all respondents have a margin of error of +/- 2.49% at the 95% confidence level.

Simple update; otherwise no change. It's remarkable that 29% of Republican leaners and firm Republicans believe that the President is a Muslim, and that 36% of such people believe that the President was "definitely" or "probably" born in another country.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 14-15 by Public Opinion Strategies. The Retail Association of Nevada, a conservative business and lobbying group active in Carson City, has commissioned five polls, approximately every six months. The poll has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

A - January G - July B - February H - August C - March I - SeptemberD - April J - OctoberE - May K - NovemberF - June L - December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

44% approval is roughly the break-even point (50/50) for an incumbent's win. I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.

But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

Significantly this sample suggests an 8% split between McCain and Obama supporters, which is less than what happened in 2012. President Obama loses to both Perry and Romney by single digits and actually defeats (barely) Bachmann and Gingrich.

A - January G - July B - February H - August C - March I - SeptemberD - April J - OctoberE - May K - NovemberF - June L - December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

44% approval is roughly the break-even point (50/50) for an incumbent's win. I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.

But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

-There is actually someone people in West Virginia like even less than Barack Obama- former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship. Only 13% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 44% with an unfavorable one, giving him a net review of -31. That's just slightly worse than Obama's -30 approval rating at 32/62. Democrats certainly dislike Blankenship the most, rating him 8/57, but Republicans (19/26) and independents (19/37) don't think much of him either.

A - January G - July B - February H - August C - March I - SeptemberD - April J - OctoberE - May K - NovemberF - June L - December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

44% approval is roughly the break-even point (50/50) for an incumbent's win. I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.

But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

Public Opinion Strategies completed a national survey on September 17-19, 2011 among 800likely voters, including 120 who have cell phones only. Crossroads GPS bought some questionson the survey, which has a margin of error of +3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Public Opinion Strategies completed a national survey on September 17-19, 2011 among 800likely voters, including 120 who have cell phones only. Crossroads GPS bought some questionson the survey, which has a margin of error of +3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.