World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

The bearish trade reversed in the middle of the night – again – and sent the /ES into slightly positive territory after being down yesterday evening following Meridith’s fantastic knifing of the financials:

She’s right about what she’s saying, of course, but I have to say that my respect factor notched down a bit as PRIOR to the release of the “stress test” she did not call it what it was. My truth tellers are required to tell the truth all the time and to be consistent. The winner of that award, by the way, is Jim Shepherd (who you will not find on television).

The trade deficit widened slightly in March to $27.6 billion, but that figure is WAY below what we had been experiencing at the peak. And the reason it is down? Trade is collapsing, that’s why. And in March exports fell another 2.4% as demand fell for capital goods of all kinds. Some greenshoot, if you look REAL HARD you can see it at the bottom of this year over year chart of exports.

Then there’s Bernanke out talking up how positive the “stress test” results are. The only thing I saw positive there was how well the Treasury and Fed worked with the banks to massage every aspect! Of course I remember what most people in America do not – that is that our Fed and the banks are one in the same. And now they are more powerful than all the other branches of government – they own them all, the legislative, the executive, and the judicial. Bet you never were taught about the 4th branch of government, the financial! No checks and balances, and their money buys influence from the other three. That’s how our government really works!

And Citigroup shares “surged” after posting a trumped up, zombie, self-prescribed profit, just like the good old days! Yay, bonuses for everyone! Hey that scum worker was one day late on their credit card, jack their rate to 30% and cut off their unused line!

ICSC store sales increased .3% last week, as the Redbook same store sales did as well. This was the same increase for the ISCS as the week prior. Keep in mind that it was Mother’s day week.

Bonds rolled over last night again, but are climbing just prior to the open, the dollar is down, gold is up, and I now see the /ES is sitting right on the 912 pivot or just below it. It’s possible that it doubled topped there, but my comments and cautions about still being in that rising wedge apply. The bottom of the wedge is about 903 at the open and will be about 907 or 908 at the close, forcing prices up into that 912 pivot.

The stochastics are oversold on all timeframes up to 60 minutes, so I will not be at all surprised by a rally today that could start a little later this morning. Hey, if enough people “believe” then it will happen right? Right?