Thursday, November 16, 2006

The following are not final GG predictions but talking points. I'm updated the Oscar predictions over the weekend, so help me clear my head and winnow out the weak candidates with your comments on the Globes (everyone join hands, wheeee) The acting categories will come in part two. Let's discuss the films for now. OK? Go.

Best PictureUnless the Globe voters cheat (and they might... the precursor voting bodies love to overshoot the traditional five-wide categories so as to be more predictive of Oscar: see also The Broadcast Film Critics Association-- or better yet: don't.) For the five dramatic slots you're looking at some combo of Babel, Bobby, The Departed, Flags of Our Fathers, The Good German, The Good Shepherd, The Last King of Scotland, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, The Pursuit of Happyness, The Queen, World Trade Center, and United 93. I've put my current guesses in bold. Am I forgetting any viable contenders?

I know that Children isn't anywhere close to a sure thing but when have the Globes ever gone completely obvious for all five slots? The Globes do more thinking for themselves than some other groups so you might see a major shut-out a la Crash last year. I'm rooting against the meandering lukewarm bait of WTC and Flags --the Globes need to put these films in their place (that'd be out of the running) since it's easy to picture other predictive precursors biting. If we could forever rid awards voting bodies of their tendency to give extra points to subject matter and get them to focus on individual movie quality, awards season would be so very different, would it not?

The musical or comedy division is less likely to surprise with Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshinelooking lock-ish for 80% of the category. That fifth slot will probably go to either Stranger Than Fiction, or, people are saying, Thank You For Smoking. But if they're reaching back that far, early in the year, maybe it'll be Prairie Home Companion since it holds the musical advantage? They could also go self-reflexive cutesy and vote for awards-season skewering For Your Consideration. Or maybe a children's animated film: Cars, Happy Feet? In my fantasy awards season (the one that never comes to be *sigh*), we see a Shortbus nomination! Ha ha. Could you imagine? But not even the Globes are that crazy.

Best DirectorSince foreign language pictures aren't eligible for the Best Picture categories at the Globes here is where we'll get our first inkling of whether or not Almodovar's Volver or Yimou's The Curse of the Golden Flower can generate any traction outside of certain media drooling for their leading knockouts (Penelope Cruz and Gong Li, respectively).

Those two foreign auteurs will have to battle it out with other heavyweights like Eastwood (Flags) Field (Little Children), Greengrass (United 93), Innaritu (Babel), Stone (World Trade Center) and Soderbergh (Good German) for only two slots. Why only two? Well, I don't think Condon (Dreamgirls), Frears (The Queen) and Scorsese (The Departed) have anything to worry about, do you?

Your comments are welcome. More than welcome actually... there are so many variations possible in November. It's in that first week of December that hopeful movies start falling into permanent history book exile, the golden statues heavy on their minds: a last futile dying wish.

It’s about time we had a little more Globe attention. Afterall this is the group who gave Moulin Rouge & Brokeback Mountain their Best Picture honor as well as nominations to A History of Violence and The Squid and the Whale. This is also the group that did not fully succumb to the Million Dollar Baby surge and rightly named Clive Owen as the Best Supporting Actor of 2004. In the last six years the Globes have only truly, enexusabley F-ed up once in terms of their Best Picture nominees, (the Far From Heaven omission) were as with the Academy it’s far more frequent and far more enexucasble. Bring on the Globe race!

Best Screenplay- Volver /win/- The Queen- Little Miss Sunshine- The Departed- Little Children

I'm very much into "Cars" and I'm sure many people just loved it. It's definitely Pixar level and has a terrific plot that neither "Finding Nemo", nor "The Incredibles" had. Maybe if you grew up in a small town, you would love it as much as I do.But I'd agree it's much too long.

It's a long shot and totally out of the buzz radar, but critics associations may remember 'V for vendetta", and the Globes pick up on it. I personally prefer it to both Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed.

Indeed, it would be spectacular to see Shortbus get deserved recognition. As such, we don't live in that world.

NO FOR FOOF or WTC, PLEASE.Give a slot to United 93, the more deserving of any pics mentioned. I dug The Departed and The Queen both, but there was something about U93... the meticulous attention to detail, the film's respect of these individuals and their astounding courageousness so perfectly reflected in every frame that I walked out of it like a child walking out of 'Old Yeller'. It was that affecting, that heartbreaking, and ultimately that rewarding as not only a motion picture, but an experience.

- In the Bedroom (Best Pic nom / Actress win)- The Hours (Best Pic and Actress win) - A History of Violence (Surprise Best Pic nom)

Little Children falls under all these categories, and with strong critical acclaim under its belt, I think it will score a well deserved Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes. Cross your fingers.

For some reason, I've always pictured Frears missing out here despite being on his way to BFCA, BAFTA, DGA and Oscar nods. Not sure why.

I feel that "Babel" won't tickle Oscar's fancy but the Globes will eat it up. They also love celebrity directors so even if he isn't headed to an Oscar nod, I don't think they'll be able to say no to Clint.

Then there are the obvious nods for Scorsese and (assuming it continues to live up to the hype) Condon).

So my Director predictions here...CondonEastwoodInnarituScorseseAnd then one of: Stone (if the movie is revived it's going to be here), Greengrass (if he gets in here, it's great start for the film's chances everywhere), DeNiro (if the movie is any good) or, yes, Frears

Yes, in terms of being nominated the big names have a better shot but not necessarily when it comes to the win. I though Scarlett Johansson was definitely gonna win it last year (an actress they obviously adore + plus killer sex appeal + starring in Best Picture nominee) It made sense. If not her then Williams right? NO. They actually voted for the genuine performance… handing it to “that chick from The Mummy” instead.

I JUST READ THE RULES FOR ANIMATED PICS FOR THE GLOBES AND IF 8 FILMS QUALIFY (THERE ARE ALREADY 15 FOR THE OSCARS THIS YEAR, SO THEY WILL HAVE THE AWARD) THEY WILL HAVE THE AWARD AND IF THEY DO HAVE THE AWARD, NOT ANIMATED FILM CAN GET INTO BEST COMEDY AND MUSICAL OR DRAMA PICTURE!!!

THAT MEANS WE HAVE MORE OPENINGS SINCE HAPPY FEET AND CARS CAN'T GET IN.

But, yes, the Globes have an Animated category. I would've predicted Happy Feet for a Comedy/Musical nod, but alas...

I'm actually gonna do a Globes prediction thing tomorrow cause I've been meaning to for a while. But I do think Prairie will get in a be a sole nominee. They do that sometimes (the most obvious example being Woody Allen's Everyone Says I Love You, which got in on it's musical nature, which Prairie has too. Plus FAMOUS people).

And drama could go Babel, Bobby, The Departed, The Queen and United 93 - but that's just me.

I share Gerry's sentiments on Frears... actually, I've always seen The Queen as that kind of lead-performance-driven film that just gets nommed for lead perf and best pic at the globes (no other nominations), and then picks up steam later on in the season. Though Frears and Morgan or obviously in the running, as is Michael Sheen in supporting.

For best comedy/musical, it seems to be a real 6 horse race looking like this:

1) Dreamgirls2) Little Miss Sunshine3) Devil Wears Prada

...plus Borat, Prairie and/or Fiction. Can't say which I think'll miss... but I think it might be Borat. It just seems maybe too "WTF" to be nommed for best pic; they might just nom Cohen for acting only. But I'm probably wrong. I really feel like Prairie will make it, so maybe Stranger than Fiction gets the boot?

I also think Clint will get in with or without his film. For best pic I'll say:

1) The Departed2) The Queen3) Babel4) Little Children5) The Last King of Scotland

Bobby, Flags, WTC, United 93 and other things close behind. If Bobby really is "Crash in a hotel", then maybe the globes will snub it.

For director:

1) Scorcese2) Condon3) Inarritu4) Eastwood5) Greengrass

I feel like Pedro has more of a shot in screenplay than here... but maybe both? I dunno. I just really want Flags and especially WTC to not get much attention. Please...

What I love a lot about this year is how competitive the comedy categories are. When you've got what seems like 10 genuine contenders for best musical/comedy (including FYC, Cars, Happy Feet, Thank You For Smoking, Borat, Stranger Than Fiction, Prairie, and the obvious ones), it's a good year for comedy.

Also, comedy/musical actress is pretty cut-throat. Meryl and the two Dreamgirls will be there, plus Bening, La Z, maybe Cruz?, and some people seem to think Breslin could go into lead/comedy (though why should she? there is no good reason, when it's so much more competitive). I hope Cruz goes drama and Breslin stays supporting. Then probably no one's feelings will be hurt.

Why isn't anyone mentioning Running With Scissors or The History Boys as comedy nominees? They seem like pretty good Globes bait. I mean this is the group who's acknowledged stuff like Still Crazy in the past, so anyhting goes.

The Devil wears Prada (Meryl will make her film ride the buzz)Dreamgirls (even if the film is not as good it will get in (See The Producers and Phantom of the Opera))Little Miss Sunshine (Lock)A Prairie Home Companion (Sentimentalism towards Altman's death will boost this one everywhere)Stranger than Fiction (My wild guess)

Wild card: Borat

Director

Condon (They love musical directors)Eastwood (Once again...it's Clint)Frears (though I think it is very probably going to be snubbed...have a weird hunch)Iñarritu (I have a werid feeling with Eastwood and Scorsese having won in the past years it is between Condon and Iñarritu)Scorsese (Lock)