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Charles Mann

What if we never run out of oil?

Most oil specialists agree that humankind is naturally progressing toward a no-carbon energy future. Our species has already moved from wood to coal to oil to gas, each fuel burning cleaner than its predecessor. Wind, solar, and other renewables are obvious next steps. The problem, scientists say, is that climate change is happening too quickly. Instead of evolving over decades, as happened with the building of the electrical grid, the changeover to renewables has to occur now, faster than any change before.

True, there are ways of buying time. Scientists have experimented, for instance, with injecting carbon dioxide into methane hydrate; for complex chemical reasons, the crystals “prefer” the carbon dioxide, taking it in and expelling natural gas. If undersea methane hydrate could be mined in this fashion, the sequestered carbon dioxide, forever imprisoned in ice beneath the waves, would offset some emissions. This new kind of carbon sequestration could ameliorate some of the long-term environmental damage that widespread global use of cheap natural gas from methane hydrate will do. But even if such techniques work in the way researchers hope, the infrastructure transformation ahead is daunting in scale and scope. It’s like setting up a second Industrial Revolution, only all over the world and in one-third the time.

For years, environmentalists have hoped that the imminent exhaustion of oil will, in effect, force us to undergo this virtuous transition; given a choice between no power and solar power, even the most shortsighted person would choose the latter. That hope seems likely to be denied. Cheap, abundant petroleum threw sand in the gears of solar power in the 1980s and stands ready to do it again. Plentiful natural gas, a geopolitical and economic boon, is a climatological shackle. To Vaclav Smil, the University of Manitoba environmental scientist, the notion that we can move so fast is naive, even preposterous. “Energy transitions are always slow,” he told me by e-mail. Modern energy infrastructures, assembled over decades, cannot be revamped overnight. Worse still, in his view, there is little public appetite for beginning the process, or even appreciating the magnitude of what lies ahead. “The world has been running into fossil fuels, not away from them.”

Start counting up all the cars on the roads since then, all the airplanes in the air, all the homes heated, all the oil changes, all the other oils a car – airplane – farm equipment – and anything else that powers or lubricated off oil.

How many fossils could there have been? And how much oil could they produce?

As the price of oil and natural gas goes up, if makes more areas and processes viable for the production of oil and gas. And as new production processes mature and improve, their costs come down.

That’s the problem for the environmentalists — for years they wanted $100 a barrel oil, because they thought that would be what would turn people to alternative energy options. Instead, it’s opened up places like the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in South Texas to production where little or none existed in the past.

The only way they can solve the conundrum is a massive hike in oil prices via government taxation, but only the most foolhardy of politicians and pundits think that can be done without major blowback.

How many fossils could there have been? And how much oil could they produce?

It makes me wonder.

Hog Wild on April 29, 2013 at 9:21 PM

Ah, but that’s the point of the article: Methane hydrates are being produced now. They have always been produced and they always will. If methane hydrates can be economically harvested then it is a limitless supply of clean burning fossil fuel.

Between 1900 and 2000, global energy consumption rose roughly 17-fold, the University of Manitoba environmental scientist Vaclav Smil has calculated, while economic output rose 16-fold—“as close a link as one may find in the unruly realm of economic affairs.” Petroleum has wreaked all kinds of social and environmental havoc, but a steady supply of oil and gas remains just as central to the world’s economic well-being as it was in Churchill’s day.

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If wind and solar can do that (Ha Ha Ha) then lets go for it. Since it’s been proven that they cannot, humankind needs to keep relying on energy-dense petroleum to provide fuel for the engine of progress, the only engine that will cure everything… EVERYTHING.

The opposite really, a minor in geology, didn’t want to transfer and stay in college another year for a double major in something I wasn’t going to make a career of. Several years in the petroleum industry and keep in contact with friends, family and geologists still in the industry.

What makes geologists better than climate scientists is that most of them admit there isn’t enough evidence to conclusively know which theory is right. Many living geologists got burned in either the cold/hot blooded dinosaur wars or the plate tectonics battles.

You, on the other hand are clueless, and denigrating those who are trying to teach you won’t make things any better.

The opposite really, a minor in geology, didn’t want to transfer and stay in college another year for a double major in something I wasn’t going to make a career of. Several years in the petroleum industry and keep in contact with friends, family and geologists still in the industry.

What makes geologists better than climate scientists is that most of them admit there isn’t enough evidence to conclusively know which theory is right. Many living geologists got burned in either the cold/hot blooded dinosaur wars or the plate tectonics battles.

You, on the other hand are clueless, and denigrating those who are trying to teach you won’t make things any better.

cozmo on April 29, 2013 at 10:03 PM

Will you… for the love of Pete make up your mind? A few minutes ago your were talking about an alien septic tank, and now you are talking about how you are an expert if you “just” followed through on something you started.

When we get to the point I should start taking you seriously, please point it out to me, I sure don’t want to miss that!

Obviously the finer points of the entire debate this article tangentially points to are lost on you.

Suffice it to say, that anybody who claims to know where oil comes from learned their craft at the feet of Al Gore.

And geologists are the most fun of all the scientists. They drink hard, work hard, play hard and fight hard. If you can’t understand geology humor, that’s on you rock head.

cozmo on April 29, 2013 at 10:18 PM

I never said I knew where oil came from, I just dispute the published findings and can’t find the logic in their math.

I don’t have a college degree, so I’m not confined to “finer points” of an argument. Either is makes sense, or it’s bull$hit is the hurdle I look to leap over.

I never said I know where oil comes from. I questioned the argument it comes form dinosaurs and questioned how we haven’t run out of oil after a century of high usage. I expressed an argument, that oil is created naturally since we haven’t run out yet.

And you… with all your college educated smarts has yet to come up with an intelligent argument to counter the point.

Instead, you reach for insults.

Again, when we get the point that you have something intelligent to say, be sure to point it out, I don’t want to miss it.

Also, ask for a refund on your college education, because it’s not impressing anyone….

…Worse, that remaining pillar becomes so big and important that in almost every nation, the government takes it over. (“Almost,” because there is an exception: the United States, the only one of the 62 petroleum-producing nations that allows private entities to control large amounts of oil and gas reserves.)

Obviously the finer points of the entire debate this article tangentially points to are lost on you.

Suffice it to say, that anybody who claims to know where oil comes from learned their craft at the feet of Al Gore.

And geologists are the most fun of all the scientists. They drink hard, work hard, play hard and fight hard. If you can’t understand geology humor, that’s on you rock head.

cozmo on April 29, 2013 at 10:18 PM

I never said I knew where oil came from, I just dispute the published findings and can’t find the logic in their math.

I don’t have a college degree, so I’m not confined to “finer points” of an argument. Either is makes sense, or it’s bull$hit is the hurdle I look to leap over.

I never said I know where oil comes from. I questioned the argument it comes form dinosaurs and questioned how we haven’t run out of oil after a century of high usage. I expressed an argument, that oil is created naturally since we haven’t run out yet.

And you… with all your college educated smarts has yet to come up with an intelligent argument to counter the point.

Instead, you reach for insults.

Again, when we get the point that you have something intelligent to say, be sure to point it out, I don’t want to miss it.

Also, ask for a refund on your college education, because it’s not impressing anyone….

Hog Wild on April 29, 2013 at 10:44 PM

I believe he is talking about biotic vs abiotic theories of petrol formation:

For years, environmentalists have hoped that the imminent exhaustion of oil will, in effect, force us to undergo this virtuous transition; given a choice between no power and solar power, even the most shortsighted person would choose the latter. That hope seems likely to be denied.

This, I think, encapsulates environmentalist thinking on the issue. They are not interested in solving our energy problems, they simply regard oil as “evil” and seek to cut off Western energy production. Were we to discover some new miracle oil substitute tomorrow, environmentalists would simply seek to block its usage as well. They aren’t rational and it’s basically a religion for these people.

If our oil comes from dinosaurs,
Hog Wild on April 29, 2013 at 9:39 PM

Plants. That’s where a lot of our oil comes from. Back when CO2 levels were pretty high, BTW, compared to now.

And geologists are the most fun of all the scientists. They drink hard, work hard, play hard and fight hard. If you can’t understand geology humor, that’s on you rock head.

cozmo on April 29, 2013 at 10:18 PM

I will agree with you here. Getting my BS in geology at UWYO in Laramie was the best thing I ever did. I did not become a professional geologist. Instead I got my teaching certification & teach HS science. But I do teach a geology class.
It the the ‘funnest’ science there is.
All of my professors at UWYO were awesome. None of them were complete nerds (well one was). Most of them were rock climbers, mountain climbers, skiers, snowboarders, etc.
Really, I think you have to be a rugged outdoors person to appreciate the work. Especially field work.

What makes geologists better than climate scientists is that most of them admit there isn’t enough evidence to conclusively know which theory is right

cozmo on April 29, 2013 at 10:03 PM

Most geologists I have known, actually, all, way back when were talking aobut the new up & coming push on AGW & how it was all a crock of crap.
It’s what got me interested in the subject.
After reading copious amounts of research over all sorts of areas regarding this topic, there is no other conclusion I can come to.
It’s still a crock of crap.
CO2 has never been demonstrated to cause atmospheric temps to rise. EVER. This lie has been perpetuated everywhere.
I won’t argue humans can affect, & cause, microclimates. But not the Earth’s entire climate.
Earth is not a simple system. And since we don’t control the Sun, any influence we have will be so minor you would never even see it.

And where are the people wondering about NASA’s satellite surface temp data not factoring in cloud effects on surface temps? Huh WTF is the curiosity in that major effect.
And how about isostacy regarding changing sea levels?
See,IMO, geologists need to be more vocal in regards to talking publicly about past climate.
I spend time talking about all of these things in my Biology Ecology unit & my Ecology & Geology classes.
But I’m sure most kids never get that kind of exposure to these topics.
I so miss oakland’s worthless diatribes around here.