Dispiriting that the first response is of the kind it is, but it does touch on an interesting fact: deaths in natural disasters have dropped dramatically over the last eighty years or so, even as the number of people affected has grown; generally this is a result of our construction, planning, forecasting and response becoming more robust. See here for graphs of both deaths and people affected over time: https://ourworldindata.org/natural-catastrophes

Here's a second guest blog by Sam Hayes, a PhD student from Northumbria University and regular commenter on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. For his studies Sam was part a research expedition in the Arctic Circle. In his first guest blog Sam described his impressions so far, and in this second install...

Another factor pointing to a possible rebound: concentration is looking better than the same time last year: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0613
I know this doesn't show thickness, but still... reason for hope that things might not go all runaway melt this year.

Here's a quick blog post, which is mostly a copy of a comment I just wrote on the 2017 melting season thread on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. For those who want to know more about what melting momentum means, read these blog posts from 2015 and 2016. I've been in contact with Dr David Schröder from ...

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Just like last month, there haven't been any major changes, and that's good, because it means things ...

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Just like last month, there haven't been any major changes, and that's good, because it means things ...

I wonder to what extent we can expect positive feedback, and whether 20800km3 or so will prove significantly more vulnerable than the previous maxima of over 22000 km3. If it's thin enough to melt out earlier with higher albedo and more holes / exposed edges, we could see a very low minimum indeed this year.

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Just like last month, there haven't been any major changes, and that's good, because it means things ...

Thank you for the analysis, Kevin. Based on those numbers, if I was to guesstimate, I'd say around 2000 km3, halfway between the average and max loss from this date. I'd predict more than average loss since refreezing conditions still look poor now and export high, plus having less ice to start with translates to greater vulnerability later. I wouldn't predict more than max loss, however, because the max loss must surely have been set in 2012, when melting conditions were exceptional.
Of course, nobody actually knows...

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Things just keep getting worse. After this year's trend line went well below all others last month, I...

Barely more than half the volume in 1979... And based on recent previous years, this would predict a max volume of about 21k (if the freezing season actually gets back to normal volume generation). Pretty scary.

Quote from the latest PIOMAS update (10 days ago): There's just no end to this run we have had with anomalously warm temperatures, and storms blowing in from the Atlantic. As we speak, a very powerful winter storm is battering the ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, as shown on this S...

Quote from the latest PIOMAS update (10 days ago): There's just no end to this run we have had with anomalously warm temperatures, and storms blowing in from the Atlantic. As we speak, a very powerful winter storm is battering the ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, as shown on this S...

SimonF,
I'm no expert, but based on this graph (https://d3800158-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm/PIOMAS%20min-max.png?attachauth=ANoY7crVHP6iyp6k4piKYFJ8Tyv2SeJcNlyCPqhWj9LfECHqFZWpupdjr6wALn3OJgkYJiiD1WFfGgtGza9Q4sPwvprBxA5LHuBcxKfBzIb46VgrXTHKxdoPZqCW6An6qyAOOj-omAuDwUalWvRNcmHZe8OWyY6UZhZf4gVZIMdyOrHvAZwmE4FhMwoIfpR2ynOX1d4UMUepSxdSFXrsy8vopVh4WTxWPuOjFkGQuka6hqfbEodBTiI%3D&attredirects=0) the typical annual drop from maximum to minimum is about 17000 km3 or so. Of course, this may increase with albedo and ice fragility feedback the less is left at summer maximum, and "I've free" is generally taken to mean an extent of <1 million, so your figures of 20,000 km3 doean't sound far off.

Quote from the latest PIOMAS update (10 days ago): There's just no end to this run we have had with anomalously warm temperatures, and storms blowing in from the Atlantic. As we speak, a very powerful winter storm is battering the ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, as shown on this S...

@StuartP,
I'm no expert, but between loss of albedo, loss of protection from wave action, and possibly loss of a little direct mechanical restraint, I can't imagine sea ice loss helps the stability of sheet ice or coastal glaciers.

Quote from the latest PIOMAS update (10 days ago): There's just no end to this run we have had with anomalously warm temperatures, and storms blowing in from the Atlantic. As we speak, a very powerful winter storm is battering the ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, as shown on this S...

Speculation: If the storms calm down for most of February/March, peak Arctic extent may not be especially low, as a thin layer of ice might still have time to form in the usual places, and the exported ice may work as something of a seed if it hasn't been blown too far.
Even in this optimistic scenario, however, volume would remain pretty low, and the ice that does form would likely melt fast

Quote from the latest PIOMAS update (10 days ago): There's just no end to this run we have had with anomalously warm temperatures, and storms blowing in from the Atlantic. As we speak, a very powerful winter storm is battering the ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, as shown on this S...

How low do we think it's possible for area to go? With maybe 2 million to lose in Antarctica, and not much to gain in the Arctic with the storm that's coming, I wouldn't be surprised if it went below 13 million myself.

Sabbatical or not, records must be reported (like I did last year, here and here, albeit a month later). According to NSIDC data, the Global sea ice area record for lowest minimum has just been broken, as shown on this Wipneus graph (world famous now because of what happened after September last...

Sabbatical or not, records must be reported (like I did last year, here and here, albeit a month later). According to NSIDC data, the Global sea ice area record for lowest minimum has just been broken, as shown on this Wipneus graph (world famous now because of what happened after September last...

Sabbatical or not, records must be reported (like I did last year, here and here, albeit a month later). According to NSIDC data, the Global sea ice area record for lowest minimum has just been broken, as shown on this Wipneus graph (world famous now because of what happened after September last...

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2016 has come to a close, and unfortunately the story hasn't improved. Due to a constant barrage of s...

Given how sharply 2013 January sea ice volume climbed, how leisurely 2017 January sea ice extent is now climbing, and current DMI temperatures, I'd hazard a guess that the gap between current levels and the previous record low may be growing still.

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2016 has come to a close, and unfortunately the story hasn't improved. Due to a constant barrage of s...

David,
Population growth has been pretty linear around 75 to 80 million people a year from 1980 to 2015. It's now expected to slow down as a much higher proportion of people worldwide become elderly, with death rates expected to climb in consequence while birth rates continue to fall.
But... There are still a number of places worldwide where some fundamental drivers of the demographic transition to a low fertility rate population just aren't there. Particularly drivers such as women's access to education, work and contraception. And if we support enabling such access further, we may be able to v sightly speed the transition and thus also put the brakes on population growth very slightly sharper.

Here's a great blog post by Tamino that tells this year's Arctic sea ice story and how a few cowards continuously lie(d) about it to their fellow men: Global Warming 2016: Arctic Spin The useful thing about a canary in a coal mine is that it warns you of danger before the danger kills you. When...

Anyone else guessing that a new record low global sea ice area below 14 million is not unlikely in Jan/Feb 2017? Between temps staying high in the Arctic and sea ice cover having been very low in the first months of peak insulation in the south, I wouldn't be betting on either hemisphere normalising very soon.

Regular readers of the Arctic Sea Ice Blog will be aware that Neven has, not entirely successfully, been "on sabbatical" for a while. During that time assorted inaccuracies about Neven himself and about the state of sea ice in the Arctic have been propagating through both "social" and "mainstrea...

It seems like a very interesting shift. However, the increase in ability to detect arctic thunderstorms over the period (particularly the documented step change in 2012, although I'd imagine there must have been other smaller changes over the period) make it a little hard to judge what actual degree of change there was in their size, latitude, and incidence.
Does anyone know more about the source of this data, and to what extent our ability to detect thunderstorms up there has changed?

From a children's book: "In The Legend of Lightning and Thunder, a traditional legend that has been told in the Kivalliq region of Nunavut for centuries, two siblings resort to stealing from their fellow villagers, and inadvertently introduce lightning and thunder into the world. This beautiful...

It seems like a very interesting shift. However, the increase in ability to detect arctic thunderstorms over the period (particularly the documented step change in 2012, although I'd imagine there may have been other smaller changes over the period) make it a little hard to judge what actual degree of change there was in their size, latitude, and incidence.
Does anyone know more about the source of this data, and to what extent our ability to detect thunderstorms up there has changed?

From a children's book: "In The Legend of Lightning and Thunder, a traditional legend that has been told in the Kivalliq region of Nunavut for centuries, two siblings resort to stealing from their fellow villagers, and inadvertently introduce lightning and thunder into the world. This beautiful...

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...

@Colorado Bob,
Indeed. With 1.5 million hectares burnt in the USA (mainly Alaska) so far this year and 2.4 million hectares burnt in Canada (principally Saskatchewan but generally all over the north and west of the country), and no end in sight on either side of the border, this looks like a big year for wildfires.

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...

So an atypical year, with lots of ice melting in situ but very little export.
@Jim Hunt,
Those wildfires may not be Alaskan. Millions of hectares have been ablaze in Canada too.
http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...