Post by quacker on Mar 10, 2013 13:38:11 GMT -5

Boneroo, I have a feeling its not as random as they say. To my knowledge Bacon has never been mafia yet either, and he's been playing much longer than me.

In my experience it's been statistically sound. I've been a Townie more than I've been Mafia. I've never been Inspector. I haven't played even 10 games so far so I don't see that as unusual. I do know that there is a perception that some people draw certain roles above-and-beyond the statistical norm. As was stated before "MikeD is Mafia" is the most popular fable. When I play I always assume that the deck is reshuffled and anybody could be anything regardless of what has happened the past few games. I hate to go into a game with expectations that cloud my judgement. It really sucks if you get a notion on somebody and you end up voting off your own Inspector.

Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Mar 10, 2013 23:10:21 GMT -5

Bacon made a good point about the pros outweigh the cons of running off experienced players. I'm one who also leans toward this thinking, Im also paranoid that everyone is out to get me, and the smarter people will be a lot more stealthy about it. on that note, I feel phi is right about him likely not being mafia, but I dunno if he was right about him not being smart enough to pull that shiz on purpose. so I dunno,

Jimmy seems to be the opposite of bacons theory, and may be campaigning a little too much for LLLs to not be in the runoff. There's no way you can be that sure of someone's position this soon with so little to go on. Makes me think theres a connection, but would mafia really be that transparent? I don't think so. It's too early to Quack around like that, especially when people are looking for any little hint or clue to attach any theory to another player. So I dunno

LLL put a vote on me, but It seemed like a random selection after fudging up her first vote, and I'm not petty and thoughtless enough to just throw a vote on her just because of her putting a vote on me. But the notion that Quacker brings up about mafia content with the runoff, could be displayed in her comment " seems like a fair enough runoff". But again, too obvious.

Soooo..., I dunno,

I said that because there were 3 of us instead of 2, and it seemed a pretty OK distribution of players. If I were Mafia, and keeping in mind that Mafia wants to keep Mafia out of a runoff, I'm not cool with the run-off right now, especially if I'm working with Jimmy. Maybe someone else can remember a time that 2 Mafia got themselves into a run-off head to head first round and they weren't able to rally to get one out.

As I said already, first round run-off frequently is controlled by Mafia, for Mafia. Mafia manages to save one another from these situations, and then townies have a great starting point for comparing who has voted for who, who has stacked, who has saved. If I get voted off this round, no great loss. Townies at least have some voting comparisons to look at.

And now that I've said this, and actions speak louder than words....

LLL>>>my deario Jimmyroo

I adore Jimmyroo, and was going to vote for Bacon (whom I also adore FTR, but I AM Lisa Turtle). I can't always leave my personal side behind in a game. But the EAP v. Jimmyroo banter and then save fits in with what I just typed out, and what I usually look for with Mafia. Mafia pretending to be against each other, but not letting two end up in the run-off, saving one another, etc.

It's not a lot to go on, but we don't have a lot because it is the crap shoot that is the first round.

Post by Boner on Mar 11, 2013 10:57:14 GMT -5

LLL makes a good point. that there's a good chance all 3 of you are townies, but assuming that's not true, LLLs theory on the EAP & Jimmy connection is the strongest case that's been made IMO and at least makes some sense to me. Boneroo>>> Jimmyroo

Post by quacker on Mar 11, 2013 12:06:19 GMT -5

I just completely don't comprehend why EAP would "sacrifice" me in the first round if I was mafia with her. There were like 4 other people she could have tossed into the runoff instead of putting me as the only person with 3 votes. It makes completely ZERO sense for us to be mafia together.

Well I believe that her reasoning is that you and EAP "did a dance" where you saved her and she threw you under the bus and that it was staged to prevent us from linking you two together. IMO it seems unlikely because you are now in danger of being voted straight off. But I've also seen games where the dance worked pretty well because the Mafia involved in the runoff fell out of the running as votes changed.

Post by quacker on Mar 11, 2013 12:23:38 GMT -5

I don't want the run-off. If there is a run-off it is decided by the two people who have votes on me.

bacon why would you be against that? You would be out of the runoff and it would cause more people to realign. Is it just that you want Jimmyroo voted straight off for manipulating the runoff to put you in and take EAP out? Just curious.

Post by bacon on Mar 11, 2013 12:35:38 GMT -5

Pre-preemptively before I get asked about it. This is a fairly normal move for me. If there are two people I am equally unsure about, I would rather make myself the one to choose than to possibly allow a mafia member to make the deciding vote.

Post by Hakuna on Mar 11, 2013 12:45:10 GMT -5

I just completely don't comprehend why EAP would "sacrifice" me in the first round if I was mafia with her. There were like 4 other people she could have tossed into the runoff instead of putting me as the only person with 3 votes. It makes completely ZERO sense for us to be mafia together.