BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

The *class warfare* rant for some reason has been a winner for the tories in the past – it certainly was for howard – but this time I doubt it.

It won’t work this time because the class that is being attacked are the less well off and they know that it is Hockey’s budget that is doing the attacking. I’m really surprised that he would be so stupid as to not understand that.

The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands. Basra is mostly Shiite. If it falls Al Maliki is fukt and so is the trillion dollar ‘investment’ by the West in Iraqi democracy.

That IS why we conquered Iraq, wasn’t it?

Al Qaeda reckons the ISIS chaps are a bit outre and has turfed them out.

The ISIS are not your typical withdrawn Jane Austen heroines. They beheaded a chap for laughing at a joke. I think they were doing the old laughing your head off routine. (In Australia, for the same thing, we only suspend public broadcasters, and not by the neck, either). If they take on Baghdad it will be a major bloodbath.

The operative $64 question: For how long will the Turks restrain themselves? The silly bastards helped get all this off the ground and it has gone well beyond their control. ISIS gentlement are holding around 80 Turkish diplomats, special forces units and assorted family members hostage at the moment.

And the Turks are starting to say things like if you touch a Turkmen in Iraq, we will not be responsible for the consequences.

The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands.

Apparently the Iraqi Shiite-led government of al-Malaki has assiduously been marginalising the Sunnis, ever since it got into power. al-Malaki himself has been deaf to US/Western entreaties to be more inclusive. So the Sunnis are getting desperate.

The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands.

Apparently the Iraqi Shiite-led government of al-Malaki has assiduously been marginalising the Sunnis, ever since it got into power. al-Malaki himself has been deaf to US/Western entreaties to be more inclusive. So the Sunnis are getting desperate.

Wilson turns it back on Counsel Assisting as to why invoices were sent, even if no work done for a few months: “Do YOU ever accept retainers? Even if you do no legal work, I bet you still send the bills!”

“‘The government is open to criticism and debate about our budget. However, we owe it to the community to set the facts straight and articulate the reasoning behind our decisions,” the Treasurer said.”

Unemployed youth must apply for 40 jobs a month despite not receiving any welfare payments

And Centrelink staff are being increased by how many to police this??

Years ago, the Howard government announced that it was upping the job seeking requirement to 4 job applications a week, up from 2.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation and determined that (for that to be meaningful) Centrelink would need to employ around 2000 extra staff just to check the new requirements.

I haven’t heard that the present government is proposing to increase Centrelink staff numbers. If they’re not, then any proposal they put on the table re job seeker requirements is worthless.

I know people who let jobseekers put down their names on a sort of semi permanent basis, going back years in some cases. They have never, ever received a phone call from Centrelink to check if the jobseeker did, indeed, approach them.

So it’s a meaningless gesture, just meant to make job seekers feel even more despondent than they do at present.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.