East Africa May Get Below-Normal Rain, Threatening Food Security

By Rudy Ruitenberg -
Apr 4, 2012

Rain may be “significantly” below
average in the Horn of Africa’s main growing season, potentially
threatening a region still recovering from famine in 2011, the
Famine Early Warning Systems network reported.

Rain from March through May in the region, which includes
Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, is expected to begin late and
amount to only 60 percent to 85 percent of average, the U.S.-
funded provider of food-security warnings wrote in a statement
on its website dated April 3. Poor rains are likely to reduce
local food security, it said.

The amount of precipitation was previously expected to be
between 75 percent and 105 percent of the long-term average,
based on a February forecast. The Horn of Africa region suffered
from drought and famine last year that affected more than 13
million people.

“This is a significant deterioration compared to earlier
forecast analysis and would have significant impacts on crop
production, pasture regeneration and the replenishment of water
resources,” FEWS wrote.

Below-average rain means the number of people experiencing
food insecurity and the severity of conditions are likely to
increase, according to the report.

In the worst-case scenario, rainfall would be less than 60
percent of average, meaning a “major failure” of the region’s
main growing season similar to the “very dry years” of 2000
and 2011, according to the report. The chance of the worst-case
scenario is estimated at 30 percent, FEWS said.

“Given the impacts of extreme food insecurity and famine
during 2011 on human health and household livelihoods, and the
likelihood of a poor March-May season, humanitarian partners
should immediately implement programs to protect livelihoods and
household food consumption in the eastern Horn of Africa,”
wrote FEWS, which is funded by the U.S. Agency for International
Development.