Europe, Alone in Trump’s World

LONDON – Alone again. Since World War II’s end, Europe has looked at the world through a transatlantic lens. There have been ups and downs in the alliance with the United States, but it was a family relationship built on a sense that we would be there for each other in a crisis and that we are fundamentally like-minded.

Donald Trump’s election as US president threatens to bring this to an end – at least for now. He believes more in walls and oceans than solidarity with allies, and has made it clear that he will put America not just first, but second and third as well. “We will no longer surrender this country, or its people,” he declared in his one major foreign-policy speech, “to the false song of globalism.”

Europeans will not only have to get used to Trump; they will have to look at the world through different eyes. There are four reasons to expect that Trump’s America will be the single biggest source of global disorder.

First, American guarantees are no longer reliable. Trump has questioned whether he would defend Eastern European NATO members if they do not do more to defend themselves. He has said that Saudi Arabia should pay for American security. He has encouraged Japan and South Korea to obtain nuclear weapons. In Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, Trump has made it clear that America will no longer play the role of policeman; instead, it will be a private security company open for hire.

Second, global institutions will come under attack. Trump fundamentally rejects the view that the liberal world order that the US built after WWII (and expanded after the Cold War) is the cheapest way of defending American values and interests. Like George W. Bush after September 11, 2001, he views global institutions as placing intolerable constraints on US freedom of action. He has a revisionist agenda for almost all of these bodies, from the World Trade Organization to NATO and the United Nations. The fact that he wants to put the “Art of the Deal” into practice in all international relationships – renegotiating the terms of every agreement – is likely to provoke a similar backlash among America’s partners.

Third, Trump will turn all US relationships on their head. The crude fear is that he will be kinder to America’s foes than to its allies. Most challenging for Europeans is his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Should Trump, cozying up to Putin in search of a grand bargain, recognize Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the EU would be placed in a near-impossible role.

Fourth, there is Trump’s unpredictability. Even during the 18 months of the presidential campaign, Trump has been on both sides of almost every issue. The fact that he will say the opposite today of what he said yesterday, without admitting that he has changed his mind, shows the extent to which capriciousness is his method.

One of the benefits the US political system is that it provides a two-month grace period to prepare for Trump’s world. So what should Europeans do about it?

First, we need to try to increase leverage over the US. We know from Trump’s writings and behavior that he is likely to resemble other strongmen presidents and treat weakness as an invitation to aggression. We saw from the Iraq experience that a divided Europe has little ability to influence the US. But where Europe has worked together – on privacy, competition policy, and taxation – it has dealt with the US from a position of strength.

The same was true with the so-called E3+3 policy on Iran – when the big EU member states shifted the US stance by standing together. To get on the front foot, the EU now needs to launch a process to agree on common policies on security, foreign policy, migration, and the economy. This will be difficult, as Europe is deeply divided, with France fearing terrorism, Poland dreading Russia, Germany inflamed by the refugee issue, and the United Kingdom determined to go it alone.

Second, Europeans should show that they are able to hedge their bets and build alliances with others. The EU must reach out to other powers to help shore up global institutions against Trumpian revisionism. And it also needs to diversify its foreign-policy relationships. Rather than waiting for Trump to marginalize the EU over Russia and China, Europeans should fly some kites of their own. Should they, for example, begin consulting with the Chinese on the EU arms embargo to remind the US of the value of the transatlantic alliance? Could the EU develop a different relationship with Japan? And if Trump wants to cozy up to Russia, maybe he should take over the Normandy process on Ukraine?

Third, Europeans need to start to invest in their own security. From Ukraine to Syria, from cyber attacks to terror attacks, Europe’s security is being probed in different ways. Despite an intellectual understanding that 500 million Europeans can no longer contract out their security to 300 million Americans, the EU has done little to close the gap between its security needs and its capabilities. It is time to put meat on the bones of the Franco-German plan for European defense. And it will be important to find institutionalized ways of binding the UK into Europe’s new security architecture.

In all of these areas, Europeans must keep the door to transatlantic cooperation open. This alliance – which has so often saved Europe from itself – is bigger than any individual. And, in any case, Trump will not last forever. But the transatlantic relationship will be more likely to survive if it is built on two pillars that understand and defend their own interests.

This will be a tough agenda to adopt – not least because Europe is facing its own brand of populist nationalism. France’s far-right National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, was among the first to congratulate Trump on his victory, and Trump has said that he would put the UK at the front of the queue after Brexit. But even Europe’s most Trump-like leaders will find it harder to defend their national interest if they try to go it alone. To survive in Trump’s world, they should try to make Europe great again.

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This is really quite over the top. While I was no fan of Mr. Trump - nor of Mrs. Clinton for that matter - the new President-elect's campaign promises need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Maybe it does not happen in Europe, but often in American politics, things are said that are not subsequently pursued with any vigor, if at all. This does not even account for the fact that the dismantling of "the world order," such as it is, will likely be more dificult to untangle than the rheotiric makes it seem.

Really, Mr. Leonard in particular, and Europe in general, needs to take a pill, put on their big boy pants and for heaven's sake calm down. The hysterics are overwrought to say no more.

Yes, Europe will probably be asked to pony up more for its defense. However, as even the breathless Mr. Leonard notes, that was bound to happen even if the sainted Mrs. Clinton had won The Trans-Atlantic trade agreement is probably dead - but do note, it was dead long before Mr. Trump was elected. (As the recent bruhaha between Canada and Belgium - I mean mighty Wallonia - indicates. getting these things done is no small thing and the EU is often less than the sum of its parts.

As to the climate change issue, the divide between the U.S. and Europe on this is already the size of a canyon. However, there is nothing stopping the EU from cutting its carbon emissions if that is what EU publics want. The deal was mere icing on the cake.

As to Mr. Leonard's suggestions for Europe to save itself, most of this is fanciful. The EU is riven and the interests of its member states diverge as they always have. The notion that the EU will be able to forge a common foreign policy - at least one that won't be vetoed by Luxembourg - is doubtful at best.

At the end of the day, the EU has a least common denominator foreign policy buttressed by Potemkin village military capabilities. Not exactly a recipe for carrying weight on a global scale.

The bottom line is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. The weight of inertia in international affairs is far greater than Mr. Leonard and those like him who seem prone to premature panic attacks seem to understand. Read more

Ahhhh the order that delivered - longest period of peace in Europe- largest reduction in poverty, globally- largest reduction in child mortality and increase in living standards, globally .... Compared to any other period in history.

Finally some sensible suggestions for the post 11/9 World. What the doomsayers elsewhere (e.g. Anne Applebaum) miss is that the US's role as World Policeman could not last. Obama recognised this & started the process of disengagement, Trump will simply accelerate it.

Post WWII US 'protectorates' will finally have to take responsibility for their own security. This is normal and right. US dominance of NATO has infantilized Europe's militarily for too long. Elsewhere, nukes may be required to keep the peace - yes even in Japan.

All of this will remove unhealthy dependency on an increasingly introverted and disinterested US and in general be good for the World. The long-term result will be a greater multipolar order, if we can survive the transition.

America, however, is another story - it is hard to see an isolationist future for the US as anything other than bleak. Read more

To create a strong Europe we need to strengthen the legitimacy of Euope also with those who have been disappointed by the EU and feel themselves left alone with their precarious economic and social situation. Otherwise Trump and his policies will get more support than those of us who are supporting a strong and progressive Europe. And while sticking to our values we need a bit more Realpolitik in international affairs. A Europe which is not able to safeguard democratic principles in some member countries should not give the impression it can bring democracy to all our neighbours. Only an EU whuch is concentrating on the vital issues including all elements of security - from economic to external security - will get support for a strong Europe. Read more

People ask, “what to expect after the US elections”?For me, foremost, it is a stupid attitude to expect anything.In the post-Soviet Ukraine, hardly anyone can speak even the Russified Ukrainian language, and nobody can think in Ukrainian, which matters the most.For the post-Soviet Ukraine, which has rather fought for the outcome in the US elections, the war loses its value to bargain for. So, the people must find another subject for their daily suffering.Maybe, you must not wait long, because in the Kremlin they must now overtrump the US president Trump. A Stalin in the waiting, so to say.And who want live with the daily expectation of a Stalin?For the world, it is no loss, when the current USA can’t have the former importance, and this gives the opportunity for others to raise above the downs of our daily lives.So, we have had enough Trump already :)You wonder not, that after the invention of a multiple universes’ theory, in the US have appeared reality shows :)Maybe the biggest failure (mistake), which makes Europe now, that they give the new president Trump at once such an importence. They should rather ignore him, so he must look, where he can fit, so to say. Read more

Mark Leonard advises us Europeans to unite and confront multiple challenges ahead of us, giving four reasons to "expect that Trump’s America will be the single biggest source of global disorder."Even if many Republicans will still hang onto the Transatlantic relationship, we shouldn't rely too much on America's goodwill under Trump, whose campaign pledge was - "America First." Elsewhere, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia etc. would have to go nuclear to defend themselves against regional threat. The world can no longer expect America to "play the role of policeman; instead, it will be a private security company open for hire." As an isolationist Trump is against global institutions. He said once that America and its people should care for themselves and not sing “to the false song of globalism.” He has little regard for America's long history of involvement abroad and its treaties with old allies. It remains to be seen whether the Republicans will let him take the US out of NATO, the UN and the World Trade Organisation. What bothers the author is that Trump would "be kinder to America’s foes than to its allies," like "cozying up to Putin in search of a grand bargain," by recognising the 2014 landgrab in Criema." Paradoxically he would tear the nuclear agreement the US had signed with Iran. During Trump's campaign he has shown inconsistency in policy-making, vacillating and backtracking on what he had said on same issues. His "unpredictability" lays bare how capricious he can be. It is true that he "is likely to resemble other strongmen presidents and treat weakness as an invitation to aggression."Now the author advises us, Europeans to take advantage of the "two-month grace period" under America's political system to recalibrate our transatlantic partnership. He believes we could "increase leverage over the US" and deal "from a position of strength." But it will be difficult for Europeans to agree "on common policies on security, foreign policy, migration, and the economy," as the continent "is deeply divided, with France fearing terrorism, Poland dreading Russia, Germany inflamed by the refugee issue, and the United Kingdom determined to go it alone." Perhaps it wouldn't be a bad idea for Europe to dance at two weddings. While maintaining the Transatlantic partnership, it should "diversify its foreign-policy relationships" and forge ties with other countries like China or Japan. Most of all, we need to invest more in our security, to defend ourselves against spillover effects from "Ukraine to Syria, from cyber attacks to terror attacks etc." While it is time to focus our attention on "the Franco-German plan for European defense," and find "institutionalized ways of binding the UK into Europe’s new security architecture," much depends on the outcome of next year's elections in France and Germany, because the two countries will determine the future of the EU. In light of next year's elections it is therefore important to prevent populist leaders in France and Germany from winning, as it would only undermine the unity of the bloc. Unfortunately the flipside of democracy is that each individual has the right to put his/her personal interest ahead of the public good. The question is whether "Europeans /want to/ keep the door to transatlantic cooperation open," even though "this alliance – which has so often saved Europe from itself – is bigger than any individual." It's true that Trump will not be around forever, and it's worth maintaining the Transatlantic relationship. But four years are a long time in politics and much damage could be done by this maverick. Read more

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