Friday, May 16, 2014

A Tale Of Two Narratives.

We’ve
reached Dayton Moore’s mythical 40-game mark, a quarter of the way through the
season, the point at which we’re finally allowed to make an assessment of the
Royals. Given that they are exactly a .500 team right now, there are really
only two things which we can say with any degree of confidence about the
Royals, and what’s interesting is that they play to two entirely different
narratives:

1) The
Royals are quite unlikely to contend for the AL Central crown;

2) The
Royals are quite likely to contend for a wild-card spot.

Point #1 is
pretty clearly true, not because of anything the Royals are necessarily doing
right or wrong*, but because the Detroit Tigers are once again playing like one
of the best teams in baseball, and Dave Dombrowski is once again showing why he’s
the most underrated GM in baseball.

*: Except beat the Tigers, of course, against
whom they’re 0-5. If the Royals had won 3 of those 5 games, they’d be tied for
first place right now.

I wrote
about Dombrowski for Grantland when the season began, and broke down his trade
record since he joined the Tigers. I knew that he had a formidable track
record, but even I was surprised by just how lopsided his overall trade
performance was. By a very approximate method, I estimated that the Tigers had
won more than nine extra games a year since he was hired because of his trades.

The Tigers
looked like they would be down in 2014 in part because of two trades they made
this winter, one that made financial sense (Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler),
and one that made no sense at all (Doug Fister for Robbie Ray and Ian Krol). No
sense, that is, except that Dombrowski was the one making it.

Sure enough,
as I write this Kinsler is hitting .303/.337/.441 while playing second base,
and Fielder is hitting .252/.366/.367 as a 1B/DH. The trade allowed Miguel
Cabrera to move to first base and installed rookie Nick Castellanos at third
base, which upgraded the team’s infield defense, and sure enough,
groundball/contact-oriented Rick Porcello is having his best season (3.22 ERA,
3.09 FIP). And while it’s way too early to weigh in on the Fister trade, the
fact is that Ray – who wasn’t a Top 100 prospect before the season – has already
reached the majors and was terrific in his first two starts. Yes, those two
starts were against the Astros and Twins, but put it this way: Ray has already
had more major league success than Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, and Chris Dwyer
combined.

Anyway, the
point is that even with his relatively poor player development record, as long
as Dave Dombrowski is running the show in Detroit, the Tigers will be
formidable. A team that had him in charge of the major league roster and Dayton
Moore in charge of player development (particularly in Latin America) might win
100 games a year.

The Tigers
are 24-12 with fundamentals to match; while it’s always possible they could go
into a tailspin, the odds that the Royals catch them already seem formidable. (Particularly
since their biggest weaknesses are their bullpen, which is easy to upgrade –
they already signed Joel Hanrahan, who should debut soon – and shortstop, a spot
which Stephen Drew may fill as soon as the draft is over in three weeks.)

And yet…if
the season ended today, the Royals would be a game behind the second Wild Card
spot. They are tied for the sixth-best record in the AL…and that’s not a fluke,
as they have the sixth-best run differential in the AL as well.

So with
three-quarters of a season left, we’re looking at a situation in which the Royals
have very little shot at a playoff spot – but an excellent shot at half of a playoff spot. It’s quite
possible that the Royals will come out of the All-Star Break with no chance at
winning the division, but will spend the entire last half of the season chasing
– and understandably so – the right to play in a single winner-take-all game
that might well serve as a referendum for not just this season, but for the
entire Dayton Moore era.

If the
Royals sneak into the Wild Card game but lose it, were they really in the playoffs?
Technically, yes, and the Royals will no doubt spin the experience as a huge
success, as they absolutely should given not just the history of the franchise
but the emphasis they put on this season* when they traded for James Shields.

*: An emphasis they are, naturally, backing
away from now that 2014 is here. Maybe they haven’t been contenders on the
field in a long time, but when it comes to moving the goalposts, the Royals are
a dynasty.

But if three
glorious hours constitutes the entire Royals’ playoff experience, and if they
don’t build upon that success in the next year or two, can anyone with a
straight face define the Moore Era in Kansas City as a success? Maybe the
Royals should ask their neighbors across the parking lot what a series of
three-hour playoff appearances is worth. As professional sports leagues insist
on letting more and more teams qualify for the playoffs, they have to accept
that they’re cheapening the experience. Making the playoffs in 1993 was
tremendously meaningful even if you got swept out of the LCS. Making the
playoffs in 2014 only means that you were in the top third of 30 major league
teams. By definition, that’s something the average team accomplishes every 3
years, so if that’s the pinnacle of the Dayton Moore Era, then the Era was a
huge disappointment.

It’s not
fair to judge a team by what happens in a single game, but if you don’t want
your legacy to be defined by a single game, you can always win your division.
And if the Royals do win that game,
the season will be judged much more favorably even if they lose in the LDS
round. The Pittsburgh Pirates won their Wild Card game against the Reds last
year, and even though they fell to the Cardinals in five games in the LDS
round, I think Pirates fans all agree that they had a legitimate playoff experience.
(It helps that they hosted the Wild Card game. If you lose the Wild Card game
on the road – if Kauffman Stadium doesn’t host a single playoff game – it’s
much harder to call that a true playoff team.)

So – barring
a Tigers collapse, which is certainly not impossible, given their second-half
swoons in 2006, 2012, and 2013 – the Royals’ best-case scenario is to get into
what Joe Sheehan derisively calls the Coin Flip Game, and then hope the coin
turns up heads. If it does, no matter what else happens, this front office will
have accomplished more than its two predecessors do. If they win that game
behind a dominant performance by James Shields, they might win The Trade in the
process.

But first
they have to get there. And there’s where the Two Narratives come into play.
The Royals look for all the world like a .500 team, in a season where playing
.500 might just keep you into contention into September. If you assume that the
Tigers and A’s will win their divisions, and if you assume the Red Sox will
eventually get in gear and win the AL East, you’re looking at a bunch of
incredibly flawed competitors:

The Orioles
are 13th in the AL in runs – just ahead of the Royals – despite playing
at Camden Yards, and they don’t know how long they’ll be without Matt Wieters, their
second-best hitter this season as a catcher.

The Yankees
have been outscored by 13 runs this season, and have basically one effective
starter (Masahiro Tanaka) in their rotation right now. I’m going to go out on a
limb and predict that Yangervis Solarte doesn’t continue to hit .325/.403/.504
all season, in part because I had literally never heard of Yangervis Solarte
before the season started.

I committed
sabermetric heresy before the season by saying that I wasn’t all that high on
the Rays this year, for one simple reason: I didn’t think their offense was all
that good. Their offense hasn’t been that
bad, but their pitching hasn’t been its usually stellar self either, and Matt
Moore is out for the year after Tommy John surgery.

I’m rooting
for the Blue Jays, not just because of the Kevin Seitzer connection but because
they’ve gone longer without a playoff berth than any professional sports team
other than the Royals. But that’s not a good pitching staff, and that bullpen
is a HAZMAT zone right now.

The White
Sox lost 99 games last year. The Twins lost 96 games last year. I think they’re
both better, maybe significantly better, but in the history of baseball, no
team that lost more than 97 games the year before has ever made the playoffs.
Both teams face tough odds based on that alone.

The Indians
just sent down Danny Salazar, who some were trumpeting as a bigger phenom than
Yordano Ventura before the season started.

The Angels
have a weak pitching staff that’s covered up by their ballpark some. Raul
Ibanez, who is hitting .152/.268/.276, is their starting DH.

The Mariners
are run by Jack Zduriencik.

The Rangers
are 20-21, but they’ve been outscored by 33 runs (!) – only the Astros have a
worse run differential in the league. Martin Perez is out for the year, and
Matt Harrison is too.

I have no
doubt that one of these teams is going to get hot and win 90 games or more. But
I’m not so certain that two of these
teams will do the same. This could be a year where 87 or 88 wins gets you into
the Wild Card game. If that’s the case, the Royals will have no one to blame
but themselves if that team isn’t them.

So which
narrative do you prefer? The Bad Narrative says that the Royals have scored the
second-fewest runs in the AL.

The Good
Narrative says that the 1985 Royals also scored the second-fewest runs in the
AL.

The Bad
Narrative says that the Royals have hit 18 home runs in 40 games, a
near-historically bad pace.

The Good
Narrative says that the Royals have also allowed the fourth-fewest homers (34) in
the league, and they have more hits (350 to 327) and doubles (78 to 61) than
their opponents.

The Bad
Narrative says that the corner hitters – and core hitters – on the roster are
horrendous this season. Moustakas is hitting .161. Hosmer is hitting .302 but
with one homer. Alex Gordon is hitting .261/.317/.366, also with one homer.
Billy Butler is hitting .232/.291/.296, also with – you guessed it – one homer.

The Good
Narrative says that the Royals are getting better-than-average production from
up the middle positions. Salvador Perez is hitting .277/.338/.447, which isn’t
a surprise; Alcides Escobar is hitting .285/.336/.409, which is. Lorenzo Cain
is hitting .319/.367/.403.

The Bad
Narrative says that the bullpen isn’t nearly as good as it was last year –
their ERA has jumped 90 points to 3.45.

The Good
Narrative says that the bullpen is still pretty damn good, and the rotation
actually has a better ERA (3.43) than the bullpen – the third-best rotation ERA
in the league.

The Bad
Narrative says that the Royals are six games behind the Tigers, and it’s only
May 16.

The Good
Narrative says that the Royals are in the thick of the wild-card race.

How we cover
this team over the next four months depends on which narrative you prefer. To
this point, the narrative that most in the media – myself included – have
leaned on The Bad Narrative, not because we’re haters, but because this was supposed to be the year. The
Royals’ front office has been building to this season for eight years, and they were supposed to be better than this by
now. They weren’t supposed to be six games behind the Tigers in the middle of
May already. The fact that we’re already focusing on the Wild Card game just a
quarter of the way into the season is reason enough to favor The Bad Narrative
so far.

Also, there’s
the matter of the Royals having one of the two cornerstones of their rebuilding
project, the first official draft pick of the Dayton Moore Era, the #2 pick
overall, hitting .161. It’s not simply that Mike Moustakas has played so
poorly, but that it’s Mike Moustakas.
If, I don’t know, Omar Infante was hitting .161, it would be a huge
disappointment and it would call into judgment Moore’s ability to identify
major league free agents, but it wouldn’t be an indictment of the organization’s
entire mission statement. But from the moment Dayton Moore was hired, he has
emphasized scouting and player development above everything else. He was
absolutely right to do this, because it works, and for a small-market team,
developing talent from within is almost the sine qua non of a successful
franchise.

But you have to develop the talent. And that’s why Moustakas has become such a
lightning rod for this team – not simply because he’s played so poorly, but
because he’s supposed to be (along with Eric Hosmer) the best of what the
Royals can develop from within. It doesn’t help that Hosmer, who is a success
only by relative standards, has turned into a singles hitter. He’s basically
Hal Morris. Actually, that’s not fair to Morris:

Eric Hosmer, 2014: .302/.341/.414, 106 OPS+

Hal Morris, career: .304/.361/.433, 111 OPS+

It also
doesn’t help that Moustakas, unlike Alex Gordon, or Billy Butler, or Mark
Teahen, hasn’t been sent to Omaha. For years, critics of the organization – I’m
not exclusively referring to myself here – have pointed out how the Royals
front office is so unwilling to admit mistakes that they keep giving the
players they acquired opportunity after opportunity that they wouldn’t give to
players they inherited. Well, Gordon, Butler, and Teahen were all acquired by
Allard Baird. Moustakas was drafted by Moore. When the Royals continue to find
excuse after excuse* not to send Moustakas to Omaha – even though he’s hit
considerably worse than all three of
those players – they simply feed into that narrative.

*: Pick your favorite: “We don’t have any
alternatives!” (Whose fault is that, Dayton?) “He helps our team in other ways!”
(Enough to make up for a .161 average? Hardly.) “He’s still driving in runs!”
(Really, Dayton? It’s 2014 and you’re still using RBIs as a defense?)

Going
forward, if the Royals can stay above .500 and if the AL continues to be a
bastion of mediocrity, the Royals have the power to change the narrative. They’ve
done a legitimately good job in building their pitching staff. Their bullpen
isn’t as good as last year’s, but it’s still one of the best in baseball, and
given the variability in bullpens from one year to the next, that’s an
accomplishment worth celebrating. Shields has been everything the Royals
expected him to be. Yordano Ventura is the Royals’ first pitching phenom since
Zack Greinke 10 years ago, and he’s having the kind of immediate success that
Royals’ prospects so rarely have. Jeremy Guthrie keeps living on the right side
of the dagger’s edge. Jason Vargas has shut my trap – even if I still like to yap
about Phil Hughes – awfully fast. If Danny Duffy can just harness his control a
tiny bit more, this is a championship-caliber pitching staff.

And maybe,
in a year of flawed contenders all over, that’s all the Royals need. Maybe they
don’t need their offense to live up to its long-lost potential; maybe they don’t
even need an average offense, just one that isn’t one of the worst in baseball.
Maybe they can dip into their still-fertile farm system to trade for a hitter
who would fill one of the holes in their lineup. (I’m thinking specifically of
Chase Headley here, who would be a huge upgrade at third base, and is a free
agent at the end of the season. However, given that Headley is hitting as
poorly as everyone else in San Diego – he’s hitting .195/.278/.368 right now –
I understand if the Royals want to wait a few more weeks to see how things
shake out.)

If the
Royals can ride their excellence at half of baseball to take command of the
wild-card race, then more power to them, and The Good Narrative will take over at
least until that game in October. But in the meantime, if I may make a
suggestion to the Royals, it’s this: STOP WORRYING ABOUT THE NARRATIVE. Stop
worrying about what the media thinks. Stop being defensive about our
criticisms. We have every right to be skeptical, and the only way to quell our
skepticism is to win games.

The Royals
have reached the point where we, as fans, are less critical of the team on the
field than of the excuses that the front office keeps proffering. The Royals have
been a solidly average team for the last season-plus. They are no longer an
embarrassment on the field or anything close. But the front office seems to
keep forgetting something: THEY WEREN’T HIRED BEFORE LAST SEASON. The
six-and-a-half seasons before that still count. If Dayton Moore and friends
were hired after the 2012 season, immediately decided to go for it by trading
for James Shields and led the Royals to their winningest season in a
quarter-century, they’d be hailed as geniuses by the fan base. But they weren’t,
and their feigned innocence is irritating. YOU DON’T GET TO ACT LIKE THOSE SIX
YEARS DON’T COUNT. I mean, Jack
Zduriencik won 85 games in his FIRST season as the Mariners’ GM. Mariners
fans are sick to death of him, and he was hired MORE THAN TWO YEARS AFTER Moore
was hired in Kansas City.

Given long
enough, any front office is going to be able to point to occasional episodes of
success. We’re all .500 teams in the infinitely long run. A .500 record is
supposed to be the natural order of things – not a reward for six seasons of
sucking. I mean, Dayton, Cubs fans are already getting restless with their
front office after just TWO years of sucking, and their President and GM have
two World Series rings. Astros fans are getting restless – what few of them
remain, anyway – and their GM was hired less than three years ago. I can guarantee
you: if the Cubs remain under .500 until 2018, and that year they win 86 games without
a playoff appearance, and in 2019 they’re a .500 team – Theo Epstein and Jed
Hoyer are going to feel the heat if they haven’t been sent out of town on a
rail. If the Astros are still losing 100 games a year in 2017, Jeff Luhnow isn’t
going to be able to keep talking about the future. So what makes you so
special? What makes your front office immune to criticism?

So a word of
advice (because I know how much the Royals heed my advice): stop complaining
about the fan base. Stop telling us what the industry thinks of your rebuilding
movement. Other front offices aren’t going to criticize the Royals any more
than I’m going to criticize the guy in my fantasy league who keeps drafting
poorly and making bad draft picks. National sportswriters aren’t going to be as
critical as local sportswriters because they
don’t have anything invested in the Royals. Stop telling us that you
inherited a franchise with “sub-expansion-team-level” talent and infrastructure
and please don’t notice Gordon and Butler and Zack Greinke behind the curtain.
Stop telling us that the rebuilding project will take five years, no, six, no,
eight-to-ten. Stop telling us that we’re going for it in 2014 when we trade for
James Shields, but we really didn’t mean going
for it in 2014 now that it’s actually 2014 and Shields will be a free agent
after the season.

Don’t tell
us it takes 1500 plate appearances to judge a hitter when it didn’t take even 500
plate appearances to judge Miguel Cabrera or Austin Jackson or Ian Kinsler or
Joe Mauer or Brian Dozier or Juan Jose Abreu or Alexei Ramirez or Jason Kipnis or
Asdrubal Cabrera or Carlos Santana, to pick just other players from the AL
Central. PLEASE don’t tell us it takes 1500 plate appearances and then, when
one of your top prospects reaches 1500 plate appearances and hasn’t hit worth a
damn in two years, you STILL refuse to send him to Triple-A. (Oh, and don’t
tell us it takes 1500 plate appearances to judge a minor-league hitter when Bubba
Starling is hitting .156, and every non-Royals scout in America thinks he’ll be
lucky to make it as a fourth outfielder.)

Don’t piss
down our legs and tell us it’s raining, is what I’m saying. If you win,
everything will be forgiven; if you lose, all the spin in the world isn’t going
to change our perception of you. You alone have the power to change The
Narrative. As hard as this may be for you to believe, we’re all rooting for you
to do so. But we’re also waiting with pitchforks if you don’t.

27 comments:

I love Rany, but this is mostly speculation about how the rest of the year will unfold. I would be more interested in what the Royals can do to improve, which effectively means squeezing more runs out of a weak offense. He suggests a trade for Headley, who would be a significant improvement, and I guess demoting Moustakas, but little else. I am reluctant to trade a good prospect for short term rental (e.g., see trades for Shields and Aoki).

The trade that makes sense to me is Holland for a significant bat with at least two years of control (preferably more), moving Davis to closer.

On current roster, I would platoon Valencia (being done) and keep Maxwell to platoon in RF, and aggressively pinch hit late based on the same platoon. I guess we need to ride with Butler, although that is getting painful.

It is very hard to see how this team scores enough runs to win 86 to 88 games, so the emphasis needs to be on scoring more runs.

Insightful piece, as always. If the Royals were to scrape their way into a coin toss game (right now, to me, even that seems unlikely) there will be fans who are thrilled and fans who will be disappointed because this isn't how we imagined it. There's just no way that kind of meager success would validate Moore and his regime. I'm pretty sure that, barring a miracle, KC history is not going to treat Dayton with kindness.

I get very weary of Dayton Moore whining about not getting enough attaboys for finishing over .500 once in 7 (full)seasons. Guess what, Dayton? EVERY other team has done that also, all but two of them have a better record than you, and 23 of them have made the playoffs in that time (plus two others in 2006, which was not a full season, but was after you were hired)

Every other team without a playoff appearance has changed GMs (some multiple times) since you were hired, and 14 of the 23 teams that did make the playoffs have also made a change since then. The 9 who have not have combined for 44 winning seasons, 26 playoff appearances, 18 division championships, 8 world series appearances, and 3 world championships in 7 years.

I want a self confident GM who expects to win, and would look at the above comparisons as an unacceptable performance which must be improved on,and feel lucky to still have an opportunity to do that. Instead we have an overly sensitive guy who wants a pat on the back and a participation trophy as if he were in a non-competitive teeball league. (Where in small way, everyone wins!)

The fact that the Royals are about .500 with Butler, Hosmer, and Gordon combining for 3 HR causes a sort of backwards optimism for me. Everyone else is hitting (for power) about as expected--although I'd expected a little more power from Cain, too.

If Hosmer they all (or even 2 out of 3) sort of have "corrections" that get them back closer to expected totals, those hot streaks might carry the team a bit. If it were mostly bad hitters dragging the team down, that would be different. But I'd expect at least 2 of those guys to start hitting for more power pretty soon.

I subscribe to the good narrative, and here's why. Almost every baseball person alive agrees that you can't win a playoff spot in April/May, but you sure can lose one. The Royals lost it in May last year. Sure they clawed back and gave it a run, but they never truly had much of a chance. Staying even through the first two months would be a huge help, especially if we have a strong second half like we did last year.

I am also a mixed bag of emotions. The starting rotation has been so much better than anticipated, and the offense so much worse, and I have no clear feelings about the team. Mostly though, I am frustrated that in 2014 we are still seeking clarity about our team and both its near and long-term futures.

Please remind me of the second-half swoon the Tigers had last year. Is that the one we prayed they'd have so the Royals, winners of 9 straight and 16 out of 20 after the All-Star break could make up some ground? Because as I recall, the Royals actually fell BACK a game in the standings then because the Tigers (and Indians) did so well at the same time.

After 8 years, the narrative seems pretty clear to me. The Royals are, after all, Dayton Moore's team at this point. They have been created in his image (so to speak). He is good at developing a pitching staff (especially bullpens), good at identifying defensive talent, and good at managing contracts (maybe even great). He is, however, god awful at putting together an offense and managing big league egos. He may still embrace modern offensive philosophy (which would entail letting Ned go), but can he change the way his franchise fails at turning boys into men? Not all the Royals players are immature, but it has become pretty clear that the immaturity that is present is the dominant trait on this team. Gordon is apparently too quiet and the younger players don't seem interested in seeing Billy as a leader.

So, my conspiracy theory: Rany turned down the Cubs job and is pulling back from his blog in anticipation that there might be a place for him on the Royals as something of an offensive coordinator/assistant GM. OK, maybe I am just telling myself this as I watch this team flounder in a year they sold out the future for.

It's hard to not see this year and next as now lost. If Ventura is indeed out with tj surgery the future is scary at best. For now we at least have Shields. Next year we will have now have Vargas as our ace. Guthrie will be our number two with Duffy Chen and probably Wade Davis finishing out staff. We will still have a good defense with the leagues worst offense. Is next year the beginning of the next rebuilding period?

Lots can happen between this year and next year. Trades, FA signings, etc. Granted, this is horrible news on Ventura, but this injury alone doesn't mean the rest of this year and all of next year are lost. As talented as the kid is he only makes a difference in 20% of the teams games.

Good news on Ventura = horray! With his pitch repertoire, though, and with us being in the middle of an elbowgeddon, I remain braced for a TJ stint. But for now my spirits are lifted a bit. Which they need. This series against Houston has been the opposite of pleasurable, is what I am trying to say.

The Royals payroll will most likely increase without Shields next year. There is no chance they can go out and get a fa without additional cuts. Dayton has done well at landing pitching and defense. He has not done well at getting offense. Trades most often worry me when he makes them. Ventura is more like 50% of the equation. We have two players other teams fans wish they had. Ventura and Perez. Thats the lump sum of 8 years of work. 2 players that you can build on. Not one 1st round pick has met or exceeded expectations. Rany mentioned Hal Morris as a Hosmer comp. Problem is we were promised/needed Adrian Gonzales or Joey Votto. The fact is its time to clean house. Neither Ned or Dayton know how to fix this. They made a desperate move 1 year ago and brought in a legend. Whats next? Pencil Brett in at 3rd? 92 million excludes the owner this time. Blame falls squarely on everyone else!

Hey Bob, do you pay Rant for this content and opinions? I don't so I assume you don't either. The man has a family and a full time job. This is his hobby. He will write when he can and when he sees fit. He has no obligation to you, me, or anyone else.

In response to Marl LaFlamme from WAAAAY earlier, I think one of the reasons DM still has a job is because he is nice to the media. The don't put out much public pressure on him. I mean, look hos they reacted to Scott Pioli after just 4 years. I think that has SOMETHING to do with it.

Thanks Rany for laying down the law. OK, we've survived May without a total collapse- unless you count being swept at home by the Astros, so let's chalk that up as a positive. Need I remind anyone that "This is The Year", when GMDM's plan reaches its nexus and we can now expect big things. While I am a diehard fan and will continue to go to, watch, and listen to their games and pull for my hometown team, I am also a realist. And these facts can't be ignored: Royals are in last place in AL Central, 7 GB Detroit. 10th in the AL Wild Card chase. We have the AL's worst Slugging and OPS and are 2nd to last in On-Base- Percentage. We are 10th of 15 AL teams in ERA. So, our pitching isn't even above average this season. The chances of doing anything exceptional this season is extremely remote. This is an organization in denial. It reminds me of how bad we had to get before the Chiefs finally dumped Pioli. While he is a likable fellow, without a miracle turnaround, the time has got to be up for the Moore era. Does anyone really believe that the trip Moose made to Omaha will help his production? Yes, he's got a great glove, but c'mon Man. Cain is finally producing but something tells me another injury isn't far off. So, let's be honest and face the music. The Royals aren't very good again this year. But hey, that's nothing new. I'm OK with that and feeling more and more like I can relate to the Cubs fans all the time. Go Royals!