I’ve had a horrible feeling of déjà vu this summer while watching the Oilers chase after Dany Heatley. I’ve been banging the drum for a veteran third-line centre for a while, most notably here. But I seemed to remember making a similar post last year…

Let’s look at two statistics. I know not everyone believes in statistical analysis of the game, but these two are very simple and obviously connected to a team’s ability to win.
Goals for, 5-on-5: 146 (11th in the league)
Goals against, 5-on-5: 169 (27th in the league)
Of those two statistics, where do the Oilers have the most room for improvement? They actually scored more goals than the Pittsburgh Penguins five-on-five, so at even strength offense really isn’t a huge problem.
Defense, on the other hand, is. Only the Los Angeles Kings were a worse team at stopping goals at even strength than the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference last season. Healthy seasons from Shawn Horcoff, Fernando Pisani, Ethan Moreau and Sheldon Souray should help that number, as will an early reliance on Mathieu Garon, but at this point the playoffs are hardly a sure thing.
The loss of three players who handled a bizarre amount of defensive work (Reasoner, Stoll, Torres) is going to leave players like Marc Pouliot and Kyle Brodziak in ugly positions. I’ve talked about this before, but Reasoner took 141 more draws in the defensive zone than he did offensive zone. Jarret Stoll took 181, and Raffi Torres was fifth among forwards by this number, with 35. Basically, these guys started in their own end a lot more, something that leads to goals against, and those faceoffs still need to be taken….
I am of the opinion that the Oilers will make the playoffs, but if they don’t, I doubt very much that it will have anything to do with a lack of offensive prowess. It will be because the team lacks players who know what to do in their own end, and that isn’t a role that rookie/sophomore players excel in.
Marc Pouliot wasn’t an NHL player for the majority of last season. Kyle Brodziak finished -9 in relatively sheltered minutes, far easier minutes than Stoll/Reasoner played last season. Andrew Cogliano played the easiest minutes of the bunch, and still had 3 goals scored against him for every 60 minutes of even strength ice-time.
This team doesn’t have a centre capable of playing tough minutes outside of Shawn Horcoff, and if they miss the playoffs, we’ll look back and see that this hole is a big part of the reason for it.

Some replies:

“The other team cannot score if the Oilers have the puck all the time.”

“Brodziak improved significantly over the year and Horcoff is returning from an injury. I’m optimistically hopeful this will be enough but otherwise bringing in a soon to be UFA player should be a feasible option.”

“Defense can be taught while offensive prowess is a talent.”

“You may score 3 goals on us every game, but we’re going to score 5. (A system that seemed to work pretty good in the 80’s).”

“I personally see a correlation between the Oilers of this year and Buffalo two years ago. Impressive amounts of offense and three lines that can score. Thomas Vanek was their 3rd line center and put in over 80pts and 40+ goals. We could be that type of team.”

“I also think you’ll see the Oil make a depth move come the deadline where they bring in a shut down forward for their 3rd or 4th line similar to the role Peca played for us in the 06′ cup run.”

“Most of the problems appear to arise from players moving into roles they aren’t comfortable with. Just because Brodziak was playing easy minutes doesn’t mean he’s going to be eaten alive each time he’s facing some serious talent. Weak competition does not mean weak players.”

“The Oil made huge strides in making themselves better compared to the rest of the conference, so sit back, relax, and watch us make 1st or 2nd in the division.”

The point of this isn’t to tell everyone how smart I am (although feel free to read that into it – I promise I won’t mind) but just to remind everyone that we’ve been here before. The usual objections have been raised – the kids will step up, Tambellini knows what he’s doing, there’s no need to stop goals if the Oilers score 5 every game – but I view those the same way I did last year.

The Oilers failed to address obvious defensive deficiencies last season and they paid for it with a miserable penalty-kill, poor defensive play five-on-five, bizarre coaching decisions (I’m quite sure MacTavish would have been happier to keep Pisani on RW), a poor record on faceoffs, and ultimately a season finish that didn’t include the playoffs.

Let’s hope they don’t care to repeat the experience.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

As long as it's not a "I won't even lay 1 damn hit every game" type like Brodziak was for the Oil, or for that matter, Manny Malholtra, who would be the exact same soft type of player for over 3x the cost.

The subtraction by addtion part has been done with #51's pink slip to the Wild, now it's time to fill that spot with a player who is going to make it hard for the opposition to play against game in & game out.

I have been the biggest Oiler fan, season ticket holder and Homer since I was a kid. It's hard to see this team right now and be very positive.

Speaking as a fan it would be easier to accept the fact that we are going to be horrible this year if the Oilers would just say we are in a 'rebuilding mode' and actually just start from scratch. It seems like we have a few decent prospects, and some tradeable comodities, but let's face it the team right now is a train wreck. We have players that have grossly inflated salaries, and the chemistry on the team is like Oil and Water!

But no, as usual the oiler are going to be a bottom ten team. Not good enough to make the playoffs, but not horrible enough to get a really great draft pick. I'd rather be really shitty for a few years than scrape and claw to have a chance at making the playoffs as per every single year.

Right on, and I've been tooting the same horn that you have since last offseason as well. There are glaring needs that still need to be addressed, and they have gone either unnoticed or have been shrugged off by Oiler management as being non-necessities.

Without a solid 3rd line centre who wins draws and a true shutdown defenceman, this team isn't going to get any better.

@ OvenChicken8:
Seriously. What the hell is Garth Snow doing? I thought he was starting to look like an above average GM out there, but instead he's starting to look more and more like Charles Wang. Do they have no faith that Dipietro can stay healthy?

@ OvenChicken8:
Seriously. What the hell is Garth Snow doing? I thought he was starting to look like an above average GM out there, but instead he’s starting to look more and more like Charles Wang. Do they have no faith that Dipietro can stay healthy?

It's really irrelavant though, they've got oodles of cap space and it's a one year deal. In my mind they've got a nice asset to flip at the deadline for a pick.

OvenChicken8 said…
Tsn is reporting Long Island has signed Marty Biron…
Seriously what is there plan? Are they going to trade dipietro?
What?!?
Well, I wonder how Roloson feels about leaving Edmonton now? He could have had a for sure #1 role with us, now he is back into another 3 goalie situation??
lol… too funny.
And boy does it seem like we keep saying this… bur what the heck are the Islanders doing?

The real question is: Why is Tambs giving 3.75 to Bulin when Biron goes for 1.5?

We trade 51 a weak forward for nothing but never resigned Glencross last year a solid 3rd line guy. Curtis liked to crash n bang and scored clutch goals. K Lowe signed Pisani to a over inflated contract and couldn't give Glencross 1 million a year.

I do think with a healthy vish we wil be better then last year ( we were in 6th place till he got hurt). Brodziak is not a hugh lose to the team, the Berlin wall is probably as good as Rolli. Eric Cole was the only player laying the body last year but never produced any points. O'sullivan we be better in that aspect, we will be missing a a solid checker. Stortini played well near the end of the season and seemed to not be a defense liability maybe he's a good fit for the third line. Captian penalty needs to step up.
I have always had issues with a captian of any sports team that doesn't play in key moments of the game

It looked like Staio's was trying out for goal last year, he was always tripping over Rolli or in the net when the other team scored. I hope Quinn can motivate the boys cause Mac T and Captian penalty could not. How can Gagne Cogs O'sullivan Nillson ect respect or learn form a captain that never plays when the game is on the line and also takes stupid penaltys when the team is down by one.

We get rid of Moreau and staio for a puck bag and a couple pucks ( not many ) and bring up Pekham and let Strudwick play wing were better off.

I think I have the magic bullet for the third line center (I mentioned it on LT, too):

Doug Weight

We could trade Nilsson straight up. They both are $2.2 mil cap hits. We may have to wait midway through the year or deadline to do this, as I'm sure the Isles will want to keep him for a while to show Tavares the ropes.

bad Defense (read: DEFENSEMEN) and the inability to get out of the zone caused this. there were numerous times where it took the Oilers like 3 regroups to get past their blue line. this has to do with a defensive center? no. they get bossed around down low and its easy to read their breakouts. the defensive center would "help" but its not the make or break on this team being successful or elite by any means.

at least they have 85,000,000 dollars racked up in their D now - that cant play defense that well.

Heatley still helps this team in balance even though he isnt coming. what hurts more are overpaid players like Pisani, Moreau, Nilsson and Staios on this pay roll but people deflect it to stupid things like Heatley.

As usual, I'm of basically the same opinion as you on this issue, JW, and I don't really have a tonne to add here. But I will say that, while the demotivational poster thing is done to death on the internet, that one had me laughing pretty good.

I have been the biggest Oiler fan, season ticket holder and Homer since I was a kid. It’s hard to see this team right now and be very positive.
Speaking as a fan it would be easier to accept the fact that we are going to be horrible this year if the Oilers would just say we are in a ‘rebuilding mode’ and actually just start from scratch. It seems like we have a few decent prospects, and some tradeable comodities, but let’s face it the team right now is a train wreck. We have players that have grossly inflated salaries, and the chemistry on the team is like Oil and Water!
But no, as usual the oiler are going to be a bottom ten team. Not good enough to make the playoffs, but not horrible enough to get a really great draft pick. I’d rather be really shitty for a few years than scrape and claw to have a chance at making the playoffs as per every single year.

OMG finally someone who knows what's up. Oilers, concede that you need to rebuild. Trade the players you can still get something for and suck it up. Be tactical, get some draft picks and let's take a 3-5 year outlook on this and do something truly great.

oh, also, I didn't see many tears shed when pecca left e-town. it was a shame. one of the best 2-way players in the game (and one who was jeered for putting up dismal offensive numbers here even though he was our most solid defensive forward).

who could the oilers pick up that could play like pecca? can anyone think of some draft picks coming up that could fill that type of scrappy roll?

The real question is: Why is Tambs giving 3.75 to Bulin when Biron goes for 1.5?

There was no way that Biron was accepting anthing close to this from July 1st-15th. His agent really f*cked this, IMO. If you were Tambs would you have waiting this long on signing a goalie, knowing that the goalie situation was the one most imprtant thing to do?

Did they over bid, yes, but they got their man and he is a ver ycompetent and experienced goalie. I like that better then many of the options that were available.

Biron was my choice in the weeks before July 1st and I would have been happy giving him Khabby's contract (except I would have front loaded it, which is irrelevant with Khaby's deal as he's over 35). I never expected iron to still be availble and sign this cheap and I wouldn't have waited him out this long.

But it's hard to look at both contracts now and compare them as apples to apples. There was risk in Tambs offer to Khabby, but there was alos risk in waiting out goalies when you only had confidence in a couple guys and you might miss out on all.

NBOilerFan wrote:
OvenChicken8 said…
Tsn is reporting Long Island has signed Marty Biron…
Seriously what is there plan? Are they going to trade dipietro?
What?!?
Well, I wonder how Roloson feels about leaving Edmonton now? He could have had a for sure #1 role with us, now he is back into another 3 goalie situation??
lol… too funny.
And boy does it seem like we keep saying this… bur what the heck are the Islanders doing?
The real question is: Why is Tambs giving 3.75 to Bulin when Biron goes for 1.5?

Maybe because Bulin has a decent career GAA, Stanley Cup, and went deep into the playoffs last season??

I love Doug Weight. Always have. Had a poster of him in my room as a kid. My hatred for Bryan Marchment stems from when, as a Shark, Marchment through a knee on knee hit and was too gutless to fight Weight.

All that said, I think Weight doesn't have the game in him any more to succeed in that role. It's been two years since he's had a season worth talking about offensively. He suffered two serious leg injuries this past season and was never all that fast to begin with.

I can see understand the negativity that looms as we prepare for season 09-10. But IF Bulin plays well, the defence plays the same, and our forwards pull their heads out of thier asses for which I really believe Quinn and Renney will make sure off. I think we have a 6th or 7th seeded play off team. Seriously FU&K Heatley he's out of the picture.

Regarding the coaches: they don't play on the ice. I know folks around here like to blame MacTavish for all that went wrong last year, but the fact of the matter is that a lot of his poorer decisions (Pisani as a prime example) would have been avoided if Lowe/Tambellini had constructed the roster correctly in the first place.

As one example: the PK. MacTavish has traditionally coached very good PK teams; last year the Oilers stunk. Is it because MacT stopped caring or because Stoll and Reasoner were shipped out of town without replacements? It was obvious at the start of the year that this team needed a veteran centre, and it's obvious now.

I've floated the idea of trading Cogliano for a young quality 3rd line centre like Steckel in the comments of a couple of articles lately. It's not that I don't value Cogliano, it's just that I think many of the skills he brings to the team are redundant. Specifically, he looks like he could be a good 2nd line centre, a position that shouldn't need to be filled for some time with Gagner and Horcoff on the team. I'm not sold on Cogs as a winger - although there's definitely a chance that he could develop into one - and even less convinced that he will be an effective third line centre any time soon.

What are your thoughts about this? Do you think it's too risky to trade him, or do you think that shipping him out to address some of the team's needs is a reasonable idea?

oh, also, I didn’t see many tears shed when pecca left e-town. it was a shame. one of the best 2-way players in the game (and one who was jeered for putting up dismal offensive numbers here even though he was our most solid defensive forward).
who could the oilers pick up that could play like pecca? can anyone think of some draft picks coming up that could fill that type of scrappy roll?

The Bulin wall contract is plain bad, and I'm a huge Bulin wall fan. It eats up the little cap space we had, and he's been injury prone, and inconsistant. He has top 5 in the league ability at times, but is he able to do this for four more years in the twilight of a long career. Its a another contract that 2-3 years down the road that we will be upset at. I am patiently waiting for the Moreau, Pisani, Staios contracts to be complete in a year or two. I never understood the joy and celebration over the Horcoff 5.5 a year deal that some had. We are plain stuck with that, and I hope to heck that we don't get 6 more years of last years production. We are stuck with this team for a bit unless we go into rebuild mode. Lowe and Tambo have build a playoff squeeker team for this year. the Heatley pipe dream gave us all hopes of maybe a playoff push, but that mirage faded too fast. I hope I am so wrong about this year, but I will be stocked up with Big Rock Lime to drown the rollercoaster ahead. Lastly, I will say my prayers for my Oilers at night that they stay from more big contracts to underperforming aging veterans, and pray the Red Evil Team will self destruct. I think Ill be wearing holes in my Pajamas when I am on my knees at night praying by my bed.

Ogden Brother wrote:
I think it’s pretty safe to say Oiler nation is now underating the team to an equivalent degree that they overated the team last year.
I see them in the playoff pack, probably just missing the cut at this point. The kids will be better (at least, some of them will be) and Khabibulin should be OK, at least for next year.
Where do you see them?

Regarding the coaches: they don’t play on the ice. I know folks around here like to blame MacTavish for all that went wrong last year, but the fact of the matter is that a lot of his poorer decisions (Pisani as a prime example) would have been avoided if Lowe/Tambellini had constructed the roster correctly in the first place.
As one example: the PK. MacTavish has traditionally coached very good PK teams; last year the Oilers stunk. Is it because MacT stopped caring or because Stoll and Reasoner were shipped out of town without replacements? It was obvious at the start of the year that this team needed a veteran centre, and it’s obvious now.

@ Jonathan Willis:
I’ve floated the idea of trading Cogliano for a young quality 3rd line centre like Steckel in the comments of a couple of articles lately. It’s not that I don’t value Cogliano, it’s just that I think many of the skills he brings to the team are redundant. Specifically, he looks like he could be a good 2nd line centre, a position that shouldn’t need to be filled for some time with Gagner and Horcoff on the team. I’m not sold on Cogs as a winger - although there’s definitely a chance that he could develop into one - and even less convinced that he will be an effective third line centre any time soon.
What are your thoughts about this? Do you think it’s too risky to trade him, or do you think that shipping him out to address some of the team’s needs is a reasonable idea?

Just because we have excess in an area doesn't mean you want to trade it for a clearly inferior piece. Do we trade Gilbert for a back-up goalie?

As one example: the PK. MacTavish has traditionally coached very good PK teams; last year the Oilers stunk.

That's not really true though. In MacTs years coaching the Oilers, they've ranked 16th, 12th, 19th, 27th, 8th, 8th, 5th, and 27th last year. Two disaster years, 3 middle of the pack years, and 3 good ones, and you could make a pretty decent case that the year they finished 5th was a result of Mathieu Garon posting an unsustainable PK SV%.

That being said, MacTs best years on the PK were when he had players like Stoll and Reasoner, so Lowe certainly deserves blame for not realizing that it was really the players who were driving that bus, and not MacT, and was foolish in letting them walk, or not replacing their minutes with equivalent players.

Jonathan Willis wrote:
As one example: the PK. MacTavish has traditionally coached very good PK teams; last year the Oilers stunk.
That’s not really true though. In MacTs years coaching the Oilers, they’ve ranked 16th, 12th, 19th, 27th, 8th, 8th, 5th, and 27th last year. Two disaster years, 3 middle of the pack years, and 3 good ones, and you could make a pretty decent case that the year they finished 5th was a result of Mathieu Garon posting an unsustainable PK SV%.
That being said, MacTs best years on the PK were when he had players like Stoll and Reasoner, so Lowe certainly deserves blame for not realizing that it was really the players who were driving that bus, and not MacT, and was foolish in letting them walk, or not replacing their minutes with equivalent players.

So since Tambs was hired July 31st, shouldn't he get some of the blame?

"Just because we have excess in an area doesn’t mean you want to trade it for a clearly inferior piece. Do we trade Gilbert for a back-up goalie?"

An odd comment, as I only offered a suggestion as to whom Cogliano could be traded for. I'll take it that you were referring to Steckel, though, in which case you're likely right. There would have to be other pieces involved to balance out that trade, which I don't think would happen anyway because he is a valued member of the Caps.

To phrase my question better, then, are there any third line centres who you think would be a good exchange for Cogliano? I think he is best suited to a 2nd line centre role, and due to the fact that this role is filled on the Oilers' roster, I am giving some thought to what could be acquired in return for him.

Please don't interpret my comments to mean that I don't like Cogliano, or that I think the Oilers should just dump him to clear a roster spot. He's probably going to be a good player, I just don't think he's going to be a better centre than Gagner or Horcoff, nor that he's suited to he 3rd line centre position.

I think that Cogliano probably gets moved at some point in the next three years, but we'll see. Personally, I think that he's the kind of guy you package up for a real star (ala Heatley) rather than in a one-for-one deal.

There are still enough vet 3rd liners available via free agency that I'd be upset if the team moved a guy as valuable as Cogs for a similar player.

@ Ogden Brother:
“Just because we have excess in an area doesn’t mean you want to trade it for a clearly inferior piece. Do we trade Gilbert for a back-up goalie?”
An odd comment, as I only offered a suggestion as to whom Cogliano could be traded for. I’ll take it that you were referring to Steckel, though, in which case you’re likely right. There would have to be other pieces involved to balance out that trade, which I don’t think would happen anyway because he is a valued member of the Caps.
To phrase my question better, then, are there any third line centres who you think would be a good exchange for Cogliano? I think he is best suited to a 2nd line centre role, and due to the fact that this role is filled on the Oilers’ roster, I am giving some thought to what could be acquired in return for him.
Please don’t interpret my comments to mean that I don’t like Cogliano, or that I think the Oilers should just dump him to clear a roster spot. He’s probably going to be a good player, I just don’t think he’s going to be a better centre than Gagner or Horcoff, nor that he’s suited to he 3rd line centre position.

I wouldn't trade him for any 3rd line center in the league. Speedy guys with back to back 18 goal seasons at 20/21 are far more valuable then a two way player (especially when you can get one for relatively cheap and for no assets on the open market.

Really UFA time should be reserved for quality 3rd liners, defensive dmen and back up goalie. You get far more bang for your buck there.

The only way I'm trading Cogs now is as a package for a proven scorer (say Gogs+Gilbert+Eberle+1st for Kovalchuk. Or part of a smaller package for a big forward with similar offence as Cogs (Say Cogs+2nd for Hartnell)