TB, NYRA's survey was just on our interests in Belmont, the Stakes itself, and the planned renovation. The e-mail was buried in my promotions folder Monday morning so I didn't know if other people missed it.

Aqueduct charged me for parking this year so I don't even know what's going on in this game anymore.

"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."

In terms of interesting angles this has to be one of the worst Classics in recent memory. I know it's racing and I know strange things can happen but I think to find something interesting here you have to get pretty imaginative because no natural lines of intrigue exist. Justify is the best horse in the race and it's quite rare to see one member of the field so far above the rest.

I do like that Good Magic is in here but I actually hate his chances. He's a small horse, he's not as robust as the rest so I have questions about him turning up the heat off a short rest but also it's hard to see how he could beat Justify here when he couldn't do it in Kentucky. He really did have a good trip and a clear shot at Justify and he just wasn't good enough. I don't see him getting a better setup here at best it'll just be the same and so for that reason I don't want him here.

Justify is the likely winner and I think he should be your top selection. Simple and easy. If you do want an interesting prospect perhaps for underneath or for the ultimate "that's racing" upset I think I'm drawn towards Bravazo. I think the biggest surprise in the Derby was that he didn't suck. He should have but he didn't. He had a wide trip all the way around but actually made a really nice looking move. He flattened out and if we're honest he is much worse than the best of this crop but to play him under Justify just means that you hope Good Magic regresses and he is able to upset Quip which i think he might be able to do.

I suspect that Justify and Quip will just go 1-2 all the way around but maybe Quip doesn't handle the track as well so maybe Bravazo can gut it out and just nip him for a minor place.

I think the argument for Good Magic- if you really want to make one- is that he might have ended up on the worst part of the track in the Derby stretch. He looked like he had Justify dead to rights but sort of spun his wheels in the 2-3 path. Meanwhile, Smith took Justify immediately to the rail (at Baffert's instruction, I'm sure, given his pre-race comments) and most of the closers either came up the rail or stayed very very wide. We've seen that part of the track become no-man's land in previous sloppy races at Churchill, so maybe Good Magic's effort was closer to Justify's than it looked.

I don't know how convinced I am by that argument, but it wouldn't shock me if he turned the tables. Honestly though, after watching them both gallop I feel like this is the worst sort of race to evaluate. Both look vulnerable and the track condition is a huge question mark, but nobody else in the field looks good enough to beat them even at around 80%. I agree that Bravazo ran surprisingly well in the Derby, but he has a fantastic mud pedigree and I don't really trust Lukas to have him better here. Quip can't run fast even with soft trips, Lone Sailor is unlikely to get a pace, Sporting Chance is a steward's nightmare... Tenfold and Diamond King aren't good, but they've been pointed here and have space to move forward. I guess?

And thanks Som, I never saw it but after my comments to customer service last year I've probably been blacklisted...

Last edited by Tessablue on Thu May 17, 2018 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Because no matter how much they try to deny it, the injury isn't nothing and he has very little foundation to fall back on. He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done. He'll have to do this on talent alone and his talent is immense, so he's still the most likely winner, but a loss would not shock me at all even given the quality of this field.

Tessablue wrote:He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done. He'll have to do this on talent alone and his talent is immense, so he's still the most likely winner, but a loss would not shock me at all even given the quality of this field.

This was so obvious that even my mom noticed it. In the 20 Derby's I have watched with her I can't ever recall her making any comment like that.

I think he'll win this but he'll really be up against it at Belmont. I hope it's not too much for him. He's extremely talented and still figuring it out.. the second half of this year might be huge. I'd like to see him next year as well but that seems a pipe dream.

In the event he does lose it's no big deal anyone. That Derby track was probably very tiring and this is a lot to ask for a young horse with not much experience.

"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."

Somnambulist wrote:
This was so obvious that even my mom noticed it. In the 20 Derby's I have watched with her I can't ever recall her making any comment like that.

I think he'll win this but he'll really be up against it at Belmont. I hope it's not too much for him. He's extremely talented and still figuring it out.. the second half of this year might be huge. I'd like to see him next year as well but that seems a pipe dream.

In the event he does lose it's no big deal anyone. That Derby track was probably very tiring and this is a lot to ask for a young horse with not much experience.

Agreed, I think the Belmont would/will be a tall task even without the drama of the past ten days. Luckily he's got the best trainer for getting him there, and this race should hypothetically be easier than the Derby. But win or lose, he's insanely good and will remain insanely good for the rest of the year with any luck.

Have to say, it's really nice to have such laid-back conversations about the Triple Crown. Thanks, 2015!

stark wrote:

Tessablue wrote: He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done.

Let's say Sporting Chance sends and sets the pace and Justify sits off. How would you feel if you have the Derby winner coming up outside Sporting Chance as they enter the stretch?

Wouldn't be shocking if Sporting Chance was sent, Lukas has sent horses before that hadn't shown early speed in previous races. Three I can think of off the top of my head is Take Charge Brandy, Skyring, and a turf horse whose name my old feeble brain is not coming up with, won his first start at Saratoga, won another race there where there was no speed in the race.

Let's say Sporting Chance sends and sets the pace and Justify sits off. How would you feel if you have the Derby winner coming up outside Sporting Chance as they enter the stretch?

Wouldn't be shocking if Sporting Chance was sent, Lukas has sent horses before that hadn't shown early speed in previous races. Three I can think of off the top of my head is Take Charge Brandy, Skyring, and a turf horse whose name my old feeble brain is not coming up with, won his first start at Saratoga, won another race there where there was no speed in the race.

If you think Sporting Chance has a chance in this race then I think Diamond King will run second.

Let's say Sporting Chance sends and sets the pace and Justify sits off. How would you feel if you have the Derby winner coming up outside Sporting Chance as they enter the stretch?

Wouldn't be shocking if Sporting Chance was sent, Lukas has sent horses before that hadn't shown early speed in previous races. Three I can think of off the top of my head is Take Charge Brandy, Skyring, and a turf horse whose name my old feeble brain is not coming up with, won his first start at Saratoga, won another race there where there was no speed in the race.

If you think Sporting Chance has a chance in this race then I think Diamond King will run second.

There's a chance he runs sideways and winds up in the port-a-potty infield race instead.
Seriously though SC has shown speed in prior races, at least at two... not outside the realm of reason to see him up front early. He's a horse I like but I don't think he has a real chance here. Not even really a sporting chance.

The 2007 Belmont was probably the greatest race I've seen in person, and definitely the most satisfying. I've never had that many dudes patronize me in one day and that's really saying something. I'm so glad Rags shut them all up that day.