Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 12, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Happy Endings (some F)

canceled

0.49

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Red Widow

canceled

0.54

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

canceled

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

The Family Tools

canceled

0.70

Body Of Proof

canceled

0.72

Last Man Standing* (F)

renewed

0.74

The Neighbors*

renewed

0.87

Nashville

renewed

0.92

Revenge

renewed

0.93

Suburgatory

renewed

1.00

Castle

renewed

1.08

The Middle

renewed

1.10

How To Live With Your Parents

canceled

1.12

Once Upon A Time

renewed

1.22

Scandal

renewed

1.42

Grey’s Anatomy

renewed

1.52

Modern Family

renewed

2.02

–The cancellation bear went 15-2 on his ABC predictions over the course of the 2012-13 season. (vs. 21-1 in the 2011-12 season)

The bear missed on the predicted renewals of How To Live With Your Parentsand Body Of Proof. BOP is the only show the bear’s missed his prediction on two years in a row on opposite sides of the ledger. At least he’s guaranteed to not go three in a row!

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2012-13 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 16, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23

0.53

Happy Endings

0.60

Private Practice

canceled

0.61

Last Resort

canceled

0.64

666 Park Avenue

canceled

0.67

Last Man Standing (F)

0.70

Malibu Country (F)

0.71

Castle

0.88

Nashville

0.89

The Neighbors

0.91

Scandal

0.94

The Middle

1.10

Suburgatory

1.14

Revenge

1.17

Once Upon A Time

1.45

Grey’s Anatomy

1.49

Modern Family

2.10

–
We’re into the holiday season for the Renew / Cancel Index and this post before the holiday break gives readers a chance to pick which shows they’d cancel were they a network programmer. You can vote as many times as you’d like, pick as many as you’d like. I’ve included every show, even canceled ones, so that no one feels left out!

Scheduling note: The Renew / Cancel Index will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 8, 2013 and will then only use the ratings since December 31, 2013 for its calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect prediction changes in the first weeks of 2013.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 13, 2012):

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/broadcast/dear-deadline-pan-ams-future-in-america-is-your-blog-post-this-blog-post-and-any-other-american-blog-posts-prompted-by-your-blog-post/feed/0stevebaronPan-Am-ABCABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & Morehttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/abc-final-guesses-for-body-of-proof-cougar-town-gcb-scandal-more/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/abc-final-guesses-for-body-of-proof-cougar-town-gcb-scandal-more/#respondTue, 08 May 2012 17:00:37 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/08/abc-final-guesses-for-body-of-proof-cougar-town-gcb-scandal-more/132701/Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows&#8217; rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

–
No singnificant difference between Robert’s and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it’s now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who’ll otherwise whine “You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as “will be renewed” and those below 50% as “will be canceled” and you may interpret the “distance” from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
–
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie’s Angels *

canceled

0.48

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Cougar Town

0.65

Missing

0.65

Body Of Proof*

0.66

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

The River*

0.66

GCB

0.80

Scandal

0.83

Castle

0.89

Last Man Standing

0.90

Private Practice

0.93

Revenge

0.99

Suburgatory

1.00

Happy Endings

1.01

The Middle

1.03

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23

1.04

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.04

Once Upon A Time

1.29

Grey’s Anatomy

1.44

Modern Family

2.01

–
After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as “certain to be renewed” for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to “likely to be renewed”, to GCB not far behind, but still a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last “regular” ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual “Oddsmakers” final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie’s Angels *

canceled

0.48

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Cougar Town

0.64

Missing

0.65

Body Of Proof*

0.66

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

The River*

0.66

GCB

0.80

Scandal

0.82

Castle

0.88

Last Man Standing

0.89

Private Practice

0.92

Suburgatory

0.99

Revenge

1.00

Happy Endings

1.01

The Middle

1.03

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.04

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23

1.13

Once Upon A Time

1.28

Grey’s Anatomy

1.44

Modern Family

2.00

–
When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That’s not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn’t get a deal done.

The observant will note that I’ve moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don’t Trust The B—- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It’s still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I’m not so quick to move it from a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation. I’m still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 15, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie’s Angels *

canceled

0.48

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Cougar Town

0.65

Body Of Proof*

0.66

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

The River*

0.66

Missing

0.67

GCB

0.80

Scandal

0.82

Castle

0.88

Last Man Standing

0.91

Private Practice

0.94

Happy Endings

1.00

Revenge

1.01

Suburgatory

1.01

The Middle

1.02

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.03

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23

1.19

Once Upon A Time

1.28

Grey’s Anatomy

1.44

Modern Family

2.03

–
While the retentionistas are likely howling, a decent ratings start for Don’t Trust The B—- In Apt. 23 has it debut as “likely to be renewed”, but predictions based on early ratings are subject to change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I’m not so quick to move it from a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.

Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie’s Angels *

canceled

0.48

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Body Of Proof

0.64

Cougar Town

0.65

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

The River*

0.66

Missing

0.68

Scandal

0.82

GCB

0.82

Castle

0.88

Last Man Standing

0.92

Private Practice

0.94

Revenge

1.00

Suburgatory

1.02

Happy Endings

1.00

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.03

The Middle

1.03

Once Upon A Time

1.27

Grey’s Anatomy

1.46

Modern Family

2.05

–Scandal’s premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the “toss up” for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 1, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie’s Angels *

canceled

0.48

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Body Of Proof

0.61

Cougar Town

0.64

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

The River*

0.66

Missing

0.70

GCB

0.85

Castle

0.87

Last Man Standing

0.91

Private Practice

0.93

Revenge

0.99

Suburgatory

1.01

Happy Endings

1.01

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.02

The Middle

1.02

Once Upon A Time

1.27

Grey’s Anatomy

1.45

Modern Family

2.02

–
After its second episode Missing slid to a level that indicated likely cancellation, and in its third it fell another tenth. Enjoy it while you can, it’s not coming back.

GCB’s 1.9 rating on Sunday still likely gets it renewed, but any lower than that and it’s in “toss up” territory. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- March 25, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie’s Angels *

canceled

0.48

Body Of Proof

0.58

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Cougar Town

0.64

The River

0.66

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

Missing

0.74

Castle

0.85

GCB

0.86

Last Man Standing

0.91

Private Practice

0.92

Revenge

0.98

Suburgatory

1.00

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.00

The Middle

1.01

Happy Endings

1.03

Once Upon A Time

1.28

Grey’s Anatomy

1.43

Modern Family

2.01

–GCB ratings have remained steady enough, and high enough, to warrant it now being moved up to “likely to be renewed”, but it’s still early. That can still change quickly.

In its second episode Missing slid to a level that indicates likely cancellation, so its been moved down. No headline for it this week, wait another week for that.

Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Call me cautious (or worse), but shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) will drop no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

– certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

– toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

– more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

– certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.