The continued influx spurred Attorney General Jeff Sessions to say that, “the immigration system is being gamed,” suggesting that migrants were only pretending to flee violence to gain asylum in the U.S. The Trump administration has adopted a “zero tolerance” policy of arresting and prosecuting all migrants as criminals.

But life is actually getting more dangerous for some Central Americans: Teenagers.

Put another way, Central American children are 10 times more likely to be murdered than children in the United States. Kids aged 15 to 17 face the highest risk of death by homicide.

I believe this disturbing, little-discussed trend explains why so many families and young people continue to arrive at the U.S. border, despite knowing the perils that await them on their journey and in U.S. immigration courts.

I already knew from other research that an increase in overall violence in the region causes additional unaccompanied child migrants. To find out whether record-high youth murder rates were impacting migration patterns among children and families, I paired U.S. Custom and Border Protection data on over a million individual apprehensions with homicide data from the Northern Triangle and Mexico.

The results suggest that targeted violence against children is the main reason that families and unaccompanied minors decide to migrate.

Central American children traveling without their parents first began arriving en masse at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2009. That year, roughly 8,000 northern Central American unaccompanied minors were caught crossing into the United States unlawfully, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.

Back in the Northern Triangle, violence against young people was starting to rise, too. In 2007, 13 children were killed for every 100,000 in the region. By 2009, the figure was 18 per 100,000.

Excluding other drivers of migration

I also tested alternative explanations for migration patterns among young people and families, such as changes to U.S. legislation that might make migrating more appealing or sudden economic opportunity for migrants. The timing did not line up for either.

These and other factors certainly do figure into Central American migration trends. Child murder rates in the Northern Triangle do not explain all migration among young people and families.

But I believe they are the driving force behind it.

Parents who’ve seen children buried may see the perilous journey through Mexico and the US as their only chance at safety, despite the ever-rising risks.Reuters/Jorge Lopez

Why deterrence won’t work

Consecutive U.S. presidents have tried simply to stop asylum-seekers by making migration to the U.S. unappealing.

Migrant numbers have risen and fallen since then, but the trend among children and families is upward.

An estimated 8,391 families and 15,625 unaccompanied minors were apprehended at the border in 2011. Six years later, in 2017, these numbers had increased to 63,411 families and 33,012 solo children, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

The Trump administration has taken even more punitive approach to immigration, including separating children from their families. Yet 2018 is currently on track to break last year’s record for the total number of migrant families and children apprehended at the border.

My study suggests that virtually no immigration policy could scare some Honduran, Salvadoran and Guatemalan parents more than everyday life already does.

Ultimately, securing American borders will mean making the most vulnerable citizens of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador more secure, too.