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Rule V draft thread

With six players entering free agency (Ludwick, Navarro, Cairo, Broxton, Rolen, Madson) and Lance reporting that Bray will be non-tendered, the roster is down to 34. Not a lot of candidates for those spots, though they may keep two, maybe three open for free agent signings.

Here are some candidates. Daniel Corcino is the one lock. The next best player in 2012 on the list is Fellhauer. I think this year, it will be heavy on a) follow the money (as in signing bonus investment); b) projectability rather than past performance.

Duran does not have any business being on the 40-man, but see a) above, so I think he goes on there. Yorman too. This is mostly political (ie: if you leave them off, you are saying something that your boss, who spent the money, does not want to hear). You probably let them prove they can't play before you make that admission. Has VERY LITTLE to do with whether anyone thinks they would get taken by another club in the Rule V. Anyone who does not think politics and money factor into minor league player decisions, see Junior Arias at third base in Dayton all of 2012.

So I am going to say Corcino, Yorman, Duran, and either Partch, Crabbe, or Guillon. I don't have a feel for Fellhauer either way. Ravin would be a wildcard. Pearl would have been on there based on his 2012 first half and he has a projectable arm, but an injury risk. Partch has always been the tease with a great arm, no productivity. In a different year, no room, but this year, maybe. Crabbe is a similar case, as is Ravin for that matter. Guillon does not have the arm of the others but is much younger and had a great 2012. Still, pitchers who throw 88-89 and have very little experience above Rookie-ball rarely are protected, but it has happened.

Lets follow up a bit on the money given to Y-Rod and Duran. Keep in mind that the amount given to Y-Rod, $2.5 million, is tied for the second largest in the history of the franchise behind only Chapman, who was a special case. More than first round picks. Duran is right behind at $2 million. So even though those players have huge issues, the investment the Reds made in them in 2008 likely is still "live." You give that kind of money, you are committing to the player until the player completely fails. I could be wrong and they could be left off, but I will be surprised if it happens. Shocked actually.

Re: 40-man--Rule V

Guillon fits the profile of a guy who would be selected if unprotected. High upside. Lefty. Can throw hard. Already has three pitches he can throw, two of which are above-average. That is a guy you can hide in your bullpen.

Re: 40-man--Rule V

Re: 40-man--Rule V

I would leave Duran off too but I will be surprised if the Reds do.

One more darkhorse to consider: Carlos Contreras. Had an excellent year, throws consistent 94-95, big league arm, improving at a rapid rate. He will be considered strongly. Not many pitchers in the org with better arms.

Bowe...there will be some differing opinions. I just don't see him going higher than Double-A. Honestly, I believe if you gave Bowe and Kurtis Muller the exact same opportunity over a large sample size, Muller would do more, and Muller is going to need a break just to stick around next year with all the outfielders coming.

Re: 40-man--Rule V

Minor Moves: Bray, Valdez, Rondon, Hernandez
By Mark Polishuk [November 8 at 4:38pm CST]
Here are a few of the day's minor transactions...

Left-hander Bill Bray and infielder Wilson Valdez have elected to become free agents, according to MLB.com's transactions page. With Valdez entering his second year of arbitration-eligibility and Bray his third, both players were seen as non-tender candidates by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes following their disappointing seasons for the Reds. Valdez, 34, posted a .463 OPS in 208 plate appearances as a backup infielder. Bray was limited to just 14 games due to groin and back injuries, but he'll surely draw interest from teams looking for lefty relief help; Bray posted a 2.98 ERA and recorded 44 strikeouts over 48 1/3 innings for Cincinnati in 2011.

Re: 40-man--Rule V

The non-tendering of Wilson Valdez makes it 33 players on the 40 man roster. Travis Mattair being assigned to Arizona fall League makes him a canidate to be added to the 40 man roster.

The non-tendering of Valdez leads to an interesting question re another potential spot on that roster, the one currently being held by Kris Negron. If it came down to Fellhauer or Negron, which would you give a spot to?--or, with Valdez gone, do you have to keep Negron on as your backup SS until you make a signing to replace Valdez?--assuming Didi needs more time in L'ville, as I think Jocketty's history suggests he will decide.

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