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Re: Willy Taveras in the WBC

I agree with that... but I wonder how much Clint Hurdle put the brakes on him? I can't see Dusty putting the reigns on Taveras if he starts running into outs. I figure he will chalk it up to aggressiveness, even though it tuns into a negative.

Re: Willy Taveras in the WBC

Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy

I hope this isn't a sign of things to come but his baserunning has been garbage to say the least. He was thrown out trying to steal 3rd down 1 run in the 9th yesterday. Today he ran through a stop sign to get thrown out at the plate. Freel was always great at being a "fast" baserunner, but not a good baserunner and I hope that Willy isn't from this mold. We don't need a guy that takes chances and risks and inopportune times. That also scares me about the new speed and defense mold that the manager and the brass are pimping to the fans. I don't want us running just to be running, we need to be about 80-85% for the running game to have a positive impact. It also seems like we haven't been very successful stealing bags this springs... maybe that's not the case.

Does anybody else worry about this? Is it too early to pay this much attention to the running game?

Did you mean 80-85% as a team? I ask cuz, if so, that's asking alot. Last year there were only two teams that were successful 80+% of the time: Philadelphia at 84% and (ironically enough) Oakland at 81%. Personally I think if a player can be at least 75% successful than I'd give him the green light most of the time. But if any player can't reach 50% (or even 60%) I wouldn't want him running much at all. I'd also limit those players to only when they'll be more successful.

In WT's 4 years in the bigs his low sb% was 75% with the high of 90% last year. If he has something between 75-90% with a half decent obp (.330-.340) I'll be happy. Not thrilled unless he surprises us with his obp but I can live with that.

"Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

Re: Willy Taveras in the WBC

Originally Posted by redsfandan

Did you mean 80-85% as a team? I ask cuz, if so, that's asking alot. Last year there were only two teams that were successful 80+% of the time: Philadelphia at 84% and (ironically enough) Oakland at 81%. Personally I think if a player can be at least 75% successful than I'd give him the green light most of the time. But if any player can't reach 50% (or even 60%) I wouldn't want him running much at all. I'd also limit those players to only when they'll be more successful.

In WT's 4 years in the bigs his low sb% was 75% with the high of 90% last year. If he has something between 75-90% with a half decent obp (.330-.340) I'll be happy. Not thrilled unless he surprises us with his obp but I can live with that.

Re: Willy Taveras in the WBC

Yes, 80% as a team. There are times when getting throw out stealing 2nd isn't a terrible thing like with 2 outs in the inning and a high OBP/speedy leadoff type at the plate that can lead off the next inning. I'm fine with the Reds running, but don't run just to run. They need to run with a purpose and keep the situation in mind.

Re: Willy Taveras in the WBC

Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy

Yes, 80% as a team. There are times when getting throw out stealing 2nd isn't a terrible thing like with 2 outs in the inning and a high OBP/speedy leadoff type at the plate that can lead off the next inning. I'm fine with the Reds running, but don't run just to run. They need to run with a purpose and keep the situation in mind.

Well said.

If he has something between 75-90% with a half decent obp (.330-.340) I'll be happy. Not thrilled unless he surprises us with his obp but I can live with that.

FWIW, Taveras' obp for the WBC is .556. He leads the team in walks (3) and is 2 for 6 w/a rbi. Small sample size, competition factor, etc., but, I really like the walks.

Re: Willy Taveras in the WBC

Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy

Yes, 80% as a team. There are times when getting throw out stealing 2nd isn't a terrible thing like with 2 outs in the inning and a high OBP/speedy leadoff type at the plate that can lead off the next inning. I'm fine with the Reds running, but don't run just to run. They need to run with a purpose and keep the situation in mind.

I completely agree with the second part. Running only makes sense if it is situational. That's why Taveras' blunder was so bad, it did not make sense. His getting to third did little to increase his chances of scoring, especially considering how his getting thrown out severly decreased the teams chances of scoring.

Here is a chart which gives an estimate of the odds of scoring per situation.

One note, if you do the math, this chart says that a team needs to steal at a 65% rate or better in order to justify running. But that is a general sense, an average of all situations. Each situation is different.

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