Roll with Boise State as Mountain West favorite

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) - The Mountain West Conference winner lost one game the last two years after eight consecutive seasons of unbeaten campaigns. Don't expect a team to run the table in 2014 but Boise State could come close.

The Broncos return their greatest number of starters since 2010 when they
finished the season 12-1. Their lone defeat that year came in overtime at
Nevada.

Boise State is not a lock to win the MWC but with Utah State and Colorado
State losing tons of talent from their rosters, the Broncos should cruise into
the conference title game. From there, it's just one game to decide the
championship and the likelihood of home field advantage in that contest is
extremely high. At 7-5 odds, Boise State is a great bet to win the league
crown.

Time now to take a deeper look into the league, along with conference
championship odds and predicted SU (overall and conference) records for those
wagering on over/unders for team victories. In addition, all statistics
provided are from conference-only play unless otherwise indicated. (All odds
courtesy of LVH.)

WEST

6) HAWAII (30-1) - The Rainbow Warriors are 7-16 ATS in conference play the
last three years. They lost five games by a touchdown or less last season but
must find a new quarterback to replace Sean Schroeder, who completed 62
percent while throwing 28 touchdown passes, just one year after completing 51
percent with only 11 TDs. In addition, the defense loses its top four
tacklers.

Final thought - Hawaii is 1-15 straight-up (SU) in MWC play under Norm Chow
and it does not appear the club has improved heading into the new season.
Predicted overall and conference records - 2-11, 1-7.

5) UNLV (30-1) - The Rebels are 12-5 ATS as underdogs the last two years. They
averaged 30 points per game last year - the school's highest overall total in
close to 40 seasons. Unfortunately, Caleb Herring (24-5 TD-Int ratio) is gone,
along with Tim Cornett (1,284 rushing yards and 15 TDs). Defensively, the team
loses five starters from its front seven and four of its top five tacklers.

Final thought - The Rebels will be one of a handful of teams with four or more
losses than a season ago. Predicted overall and conference records - 3-9, 2-6.

4) SAN JOSE STATE (30-1) - The Spartans are 15-4 ATS on the road the last
three years. Last season's run defense was pitiful (5.2 yards per carry) and
the switch from the WAC to the MWC did not help either as the Spartans allowed
10 more ppg in league play. This year, a new quarterback must be found as well
as five more offensive starters.

Final thought - The defense should improve but the offense will need time to
jell. Predicted overall and conference records - 5-7, 4-4.

3) NEVADA (7-1) - The Wolf Pack are 8-16 as road favorites the last seven
years. They allowed a whopping 6.6 yards per carry last season (5.9 in MWC
play) - a number that has declined year-by-year since the 3.1 ypc mark in
2008. With 10 returning starters (the most since 2003), 2014 will finally put
an end to that trend. Eight offensive starters come back, including Cody
Fajardo, so look for higher totals both overall and inside the conference.

Final thought - Nevada finished third nationally in both third-down efficiency
and red zone touchdowns in 2012. Last year, the club ranked 43rd and 46th,
respectively. Expect another reversal of form in 2014. Predicted overall and
conference records - 7-5, 5-3.

2) SAN DIEGO STATE (12-1) - The Aztecs are 10-5 as road underdogs the last
five years. They averaged 61 more ypg than their opponents but could not
outscore them (32-32). Furthermore, the defense gave up just 13 more ypg than
in 2012 but allowed nine more ppg, probably due to a last-place national
finish in red zone efficiency. This year will be different as those numbers
tend to flip from one year to the next.

Final thought - Even with the above-mentioned negative statistics, San Diego
State still won eight games, including six inside the MWC. The Aztecs are a
dark horse play to win the conference title at 12-1. Predicted overall and
conference records - 8-4, 6-2.

1) FRESNO STATE (3-1) - The Bulldogs are 21-8 ATS on the road the last five
seasons. They won five games last year by a touchdown or less so their luck
might run out this season. Furthermore, Derek Carr and his top two targets
moved on so the offense will not be as proficient. However, with Brandon
Connette coming over from Duke and a defense that will shave close to a
touchdown off its 30-ppg average, Fresno State still is the class of the
division.

Final thought - The season revolves around beating San Diego State. If they
do, the Bulldogs can still win the West since the Aztecs have to go to both
Boise State and Nevada. Predicted overall and conference records - 7-5, 6-2.

MOUNTAIN

6) NEW MEXICO (75-1) - The Lobos are 6-11 as home underdogs the last four
years. Only five FBS teams allowed more points per game than New Mexico in
2013. Look for at least a touchdown fewer ppg allowed this season with the
return of 13 of the top 18 tacklers. (Last year, the Lobos lost 10 of their
top 15 tacklers.) Even if the offensive scoring average drops a few points,
the club's record can't get any worse than it has been in recent years.

Final thought - The Lobos lost six of their nine games by a combined 164
points. They will be more competitive this season. Predicted overall and
conference records - 3-9, 1-7.

5) WYOMING (30-1) - The Cowboys are 17-6 as road underdogs the last five
years. They lose Brett Smith and switch to a pro-style offense from the
spread. Two factors which spell doom in Laramie. In addition, the offensive
line struggled in the spring so expect a massive decline in terms of points
scored. Defensively, they change to a 4-3 but should be strong with the return
of 17 of their top 20 tacklers.

Final thought - It will be difficult for the Cowboys to be bowl eligible,
especially since they won only five games with Brett Smith at quarterback last
season. Predicted overall and conference records - 5-7, 3-5.

4) AIR FORCE (30-1) - The Falcons are 4-11 as home favorites the last four
years. They came into last year with players that combined for just 124 career
starts. That was the fewest number in the country. The defense also was tied
for last nationally (with UAB) in red zone touchdowns allowed. This year, Air
Force returns its largest number of starters in over 20 years so improvement
is expected.

Final thought - After back-to-back two-win ATS seasons, the Falcons will bust
out with a .500 ATS record. Predicted overall and conference records - 6-6,
3-5.

3) COLORADO STATE (18-1) - The Rams are 5-1 as home favorites the last two
years. They had the fourth highest jump nationally in total offense moving
from 100th to 24th. They also outscored their opponents for the first time
since 2003. Duplicating an above .500 season could be a problem with the loss
of their top three rushers and four-fifths of the offensive line. However,
bringing in former Alabama running back, Dee Hart, will help the situation.

Final thought - After ranking 30th nationally in run defense, the defensive
line loses the bulk of its starters, which will leave Colorado State out of
the postseason. Predicted overall and conference records - 5-7, 4-4.

2) UTAH STATE (3-1) - The Aggies are 21-9 as road underdogs the last seven
years. They ranked seventh nationally in scoring defense last season and were
the only FBS team not to allow a touchdown run of 10 or more yards. They lose
six starters this year but four of the top seven tacklers are back along with
players that combined for 66 percent of the team's sacks. The issue will be on
offense where eight starters are gone, including four-fifths of the line.

Final thought - If quarterback Chuckie Keeton is healthy after missing more
than half of last year, the Aggies should be fine since their schedule is
fairly easy. Predicted overall and conference records - 8-4, 5-3.

1) BOISE STATE (7-5) - The Broncos are 20-9 as road favorites the last six
years. They have a new coach for the first time since 2006, the year they went
13-0. If Boise State can knock off Ole Miss in week one, there is a chance for
another unbeaten campaign, particularly with Utah State, Fresno State, San
Diego State and BYU all coming to Bronco Stadium. The only concern is at
offensive line where they lose three of their five starters.

Final thought - The Broncos lost three-fifths of their offensive line each of
the last two years and still managed to average 4.6 ypc. Predicted overall and
conference records - 10-2, 7-1.