Kentucky Derby Trends: Has January Gone Cold?

Over the years and through the decades of Kentucky Derby history some trends have been talked about much more than others. Some have held
their ground but others have also ended. Some fans disregard them while others pay
close attention. Regardless, these fads
can be fun to watch and always add excitement to the Kentucky Derby.

In
recent years we have seen some long standing trends finally come to end after
being tested time and time again. The first that comes to mind was the curse of
Needles: The 5 / 6 Week Layoff. In 1956 Needles won the Kentucky Derby after a
6 week layoff. It wasn’t until 50 years later that Barbaro became the first
3-yr-old to score after resting for five weeks.

This
of course only changed the name of the trend as the curse of Needles then became: The 6 week layoff. But, once again it wouldn’t be long before another champion
raced onto the scene and ended it. What made this winner even more impressive is that he stopped not one but two trends on the very same day. In
2011, Animal Kingdom closed the door on the six-week layoff and also became the
first ever horse to win the Kentucky Derby after never racing on dirt.

Others
that have recently ended include: The 20 Hole. In 2008, Big Brown became the
first ever to win from Post Position 20. How about the Improbable Double. In
2007 Street Sense became the first to win the Kentucky Derby after scoring the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a 2-yr-old.

Or,
what about this one: The Favorite Never Wins. This one crumbled in 2000 when Fusaichi
Pegasus became the first post time favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since
Spectacular Bid in 1979. But, that was just a fad because even though it was
rare it became normal by 2008. By then it happened 3 more times over the
next eight years – Smarty Jones’ 05, Street Sense ’07, Big Brown ’08.

Does
anyone remember that: Geldings Can’t Win. In 2003, Funny Cide became the first
Gelding to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. The odd
achievement would surface again with Mine That Bird in 2009.

Finally, it was just last year when we witnessed I’ll Have Another put two trends to bed. He became
the first Santa Anita Derby winner to claim the roses since Sunday Silence in
1989 and the first to ever score from the most dreadful position in the
starting gate; post 19.

So, that
was a look at some the trends that officially dissolved as of late. If the examples prove anything its that it may be wise to be careful when taking
these so called trends into account before making your picks. Recent history
shows that even though a trend can be supported, it’s only a matter of time
before another horse will end it. If your gut tells to bet that horse, I suggest that you go for it. I stand by that because ending a trend has now become
a trend itself.

This
brings me to a trend that has only recently begun to develop. Because it doesn’t
have a lot legs I can understand if you dismiss it immediately. But, 6 years in
a row is still worth mentioning so here goes. Since 2006, when Barbaro won the G3 Tropical Park Derby on New Years Day, no Kentucky
Derby winner has raced in January. Big Brown, Mine that Bird and I’ll Have
Another all waited until February before they began their 3-yr-old racing season
while Street Sense, Super Saver and Animal Kingdom waited until March.

Can you conclude whether or not the fad of not racing in January will stay alive in 2013? To help you out here’s a look at our Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders and where they stand alongside of this
trend. We first begin with the crop of horses that will be racing to end the trend.

Horse

January Race

Itsmyluckyday

G3 Holy Bull Stakes -
1/26

Shanghai Bobby

G3 Holy Bull Stakes -
1/26

Bern Identity

G3 Holy Bull Stakes -
1/26

Frac Daddy

G3 Holy Bull Stakes -
1/26

Will Take
Charge

Smarty Jones - 1/21

Oxbow

G3 Lecomte - 1/19

Dynamic Sky

Pasco Stakes - 1/12

Goldencents

G3 Sham Stakes - 1/5

Dens Legacy

G3 Sham Stakes – 1/5

Mac The Man

Turfway Prevue - 1/5

Verrazano

MSW - 1/1

Undrafted

Gulfstream Park Derby
- 1/1

The
two that jump out at you right away are Shanghai Bobby and Itsmyluckyday. Others
that may be gaining steam are Verrazano, Oxbow or possibly Dynamic Sky and
Goldencents.

My analysis on this trend is that it's not worth much and it's something that I will not consider. I think that a few of the horses that have
raced in January are on the right path. If they continue to ride smoothly then they can also be considered legitimate contenders on Derby day.

However,
I can also see why this fad may continue. The reason behind that is because the
list of horses that raced on the first Saturday in February or have yet to race this year look just as nice if not better than your January starters.

Horse

Feb Race / Next
Probable Start

Flashback

G2 Robert B. Lewis
Stakes - 2/2

Revolutionary

G3 Withers Stakes -
2/3

Falling Sky

G3 Sam F Davis - 2/3

Uncaptured

G2 Tampa Bay Derby -
3/9

Normandy
Invasion

G2 Risen Star - 2/23

Violence

G2 Fountain of Youth
- 2/23

Overanalyze

G3 Gotham - 3/2

Power Broker

Not yet announced

Balance the
Books

G3 Palm Beach - 3/3

Fury Kapcori

Not yet announced

Fortify

G3 UAE Guineas - 2/14

A big thing that helps this trend is how reluctant top trainers have
become with racing their horses too much. The result of that strategy is that most derby contenders won't begin their 3-yr-old campaign this early. The strategy seems to be working but I can't be certain that will continue for too long. Another reason I find this trend as a
temporary fad is because not long ago racing in January was a recipe for
success. Between 1998 and 2004 each of the seven Kentucky Derby winners raced
in the first and coldest month of the year.

In conclusion, while I think this trend is interesting it doesn't play much of a role with me. I
won’t predict it this year until we get further down the road but I’m pretty confident this
trend will get tossed out over the course of the next two Kentucky Derby
seasons. It’s curious for now but it will soon be an afterthought once a
January starter goes on to win the roses and becomes the first since Barbaro.

Historical references, when it comes to the derby, make sense as an addition to normal handicapping practices. Here is another fact to keep in mind come Derby Day... 70 out of the last 73 winners of the Kentucky Derby have had Total Dosage Points at 14 and over. Only three have been 12 and under. IMO this is an important piece of info.

Nice article. Here's another trend to add to those that have been accumulated. That is horses' names that begin with the letter 'S'. Since 1973 - Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Sunny's Halo, Swale, Spend A Buck, Sunday Silence, Strike The Gold, Sea Hero, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Street Sense, and Super Saver. The letter 'S' represents 1/26 of the alphabet(a tad less than 4%), but has won 30% of the Derbies since 1973. Can you say, Shanghai Bobby?