Kliff Kingsbury clearly is ready for the NFL. But is it ready for him?

On a surface level, Kliff Kingsbury has a lot in common with Sean McVay. Both are young, handsome offensive geniuses who will be coaching NFC West teams next fall. When the Cardinals announced they were hiring Kingsbury to be their next head coach, the inevitable comparisons to McVay were made. The team even leaned into those comparisons, referencing the Rams coach in their announcement, which has since been edited.

“Kingsbury is friends with Rams coach Sean McVay — the 32-year-old- offensive genius who has become the blueprint of many of the new coaching hires around the NFL.”

The team was (rightfully) mocked for pointing out the weak connection to McVay. And pundits around the country have criticized the team for just trying to “find the next McVay,” which has been a big theme during this hiring cycle.

But if Arizona was truly looking for a guy who can implement a McVay-style offense, then it failed miserably. Kingsbury’s and McVay’s systems could not be more different. McVay’s offense is built around the threat of the run, the Rams mostly operate from under center and he rarely strays from the one-back, one-tight end personnel grouping.

Entering Week 16, the @RamsNFL had used non-11 personnel groupings on only 6 offensive plays with Jared Goff.

Kingsbury’s teams, on the other hand, only run when there is a clear and obvious advantage in the box. His teams operate out of the shotgun 95% of snaps and he’ll switch up his personnel groupings every play.

This isn’t a “find the next McVay” thing; it’s a “find a coach who is out in front of the evolution currently transforming the NFL” thing, where coaches who prioritize “establishing the run” and “just getting to third-and-manageable” are dying out — the Seahawks just lost a playoff game because of that archaic thinking — and being replaced by the next generation of coaches who seem to value the insight into the game provided by analytics. Coaches who seem to understand that the best way to move the ball is to pass it. The Cardinals aren’t simply riding a wave; they are trying to get out in front of it.

There are legitimate reasons to question the haste with which Kingsbury was hired. Race is one of them. The NFL has a serious deficiency when it comes to hiring black coaches (there are currently two black head coaches even though around 70 percent of the league’s players are black), especially now that offensive geniuses are all the rage. Offensive geniuses tend to be former quarterbacks (10 out of 30 current head coaches played the position), and it wasn’t until recently that black players were even given the opportunity to play quarterback. It’s clear Kingsbury has benefitted from a system that has long favored white players over black ones and failed to create a pipeline that gives black coaches anything resembling a fair shot. Let’s not ignore that.

Kingsbury has used his advantages to show that he warrants getting an NFL gig.

That Kingsbury had a losing record at Texas Tech has led many to wonder if he truly did deserve one of only 32 NFL head coaching jobs. The Red Raiders went a mediocre 35-40 during his five years in Lubbock, but that doesn’t really matter. At least it shouldn’t for a rather obvious reason: College coaches aren’t competing on a level playing field. It makes sense to judge NFL coaches based on their ability to win games; they’re all facing the same constraints when building a winner. The same, obviously, isn’t true in college, where recruiting budgets, facilities, location and the pedigree of a program are just as important as coaching. Good coaching can elevate a middling program — but only so much.

That Kingsbury wasn’t able to win in Lubbock shouldn’t be held against him. Other than Mike Leach, nobody has been able to win in Lubbock.

Criticizing Kliff Kingsbury solely based on his W-L record is missing the point.

His offenses are really dynamic and innovative. That's where the NFL is going.

And btw, Texas Tech has a single 10-win season in the last 40 years (2008 Leach) – not exactly an easy place to win.

And Leach won at Texas Tech before the Big XII’s offensive explosion. He was zigging while the rest of the conference was zagging. Leach didn’t need top talent on defense to win in the Big XII because conference opponents weren’t equipped to win shootouts with his teams. That isn’t the case in today’s Big XII, where the Goliath’s of the conference adopted Leach’s “David” strategies — but with four- and five-star recruits on both sides of the ball. Leach’s Texas Tech teams were essentially playing a different sport, so the talent disparity did not matter nearly as much. Kingsbury did not enjoy that luxury.

The Cardinals aren’t bringing in Kingsbury for his ability to build a roster capable of winning a championship. That’s GM Steve Keim’s job. Kingsbury’s job is to build an offense that (1) properly utilizes the talent the front office provides him with and (2) scores a bunch of points. His time at Texas Tech proves he is capable of doing both. If he continues to do both, the wins will come.

College coaches — especially those billed as offensive masterminds — have a poor track record in the NFL, but this hiring is unlike the ones we’ve seen in the past. NFL teams rarely (if ever) hire college coaches with middling records, which could be the reason college coaches making the leap have failed so often. That’s Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s theory, as he told The New York Times’ Michael Lewis in 2005:

[I]n Schwartz’s view, college coaches tended to fail in the N.F.L. mainly because the pros hired the famous coaches from the old-money schools, on the premise that those who won the most games were the best coaches. But was this smart? Notre Dame might have a good football team, but how much of its success came from the desire of every Catholic in the country to play for Notre Dame?

Looking for fresh coaching talent, Schwartz analyzed the offensive and defensive statistics of what he called the “midlevel schools” in search of any that had enjoyed success out of proportion to their stature. On offense, Texas Tech’s numbers leapt out as positively freakish: a midlevel school, playing against the toughest football schools in the country, with the nation’s highest scoring offense …

“They weren’t scoring all these touchdowns because they had the best players,” Schwartz told me recently. “They were doing it because they were smarter. Leach had found a way to make it work.”

Kingsbury wasn’t working with blue-chip talent on offense, but he still “found a way to make it work” because he was “smarter.” That’s what good coaches do. Unfortunately, his coaching prowess was limited to the offensive side of the ball, and he couldn’t find a defensive coach capable of closing the defensive talent gap with scheme.

As crazy as it sounds, making the leap to the NFL should benefit Kingsbury’s ability to win games for the simple fact that the correlation between a good defense and winning games is much stronger at the college level than it is in the pros, where passing efficiency takes precedent. Optimum Scouting’s Justis Mosqueda has the numbers backing this up. Passing efficiency was never a problem for Texas Tech under Kingsbury. If he can replicate that success in Arizona, he will win far more games than he did in Lubbock — even if he never enjoys the luxury of a great defense.

Unsurprisingly, Leach’s name was brought up after the news of Kingsbury’s hiring broke, with many wondering why teams were willing to hire one of his proteges and not the man who — along with Hal Mumme — gave birth to the “Air Raid” offense Kingsbury has employed during his coaching career.

The wishbone and the Wing-T were playbooks, Bill Walsh’s West Coast offense a meticulous method of gameplanning, but the Air Raid is something more akin to an idea, or at least several related ones: that to get an advantage in modern football you need to be particularly good at something, and to be good at something you have to commit to that something, and if you’re going to commit to something it might as well be different.

In other words, the Air Raid is open for interpretation and, as a result, it is constantly evolving. Mumme’s offense at Kentucky, where he put the system on the proverbial map after bombarding the conservative SEC with his pass-first approach, was a two-back offense that focused on the short passing game. When Leach left Kentucky to take over as Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator, he swapped that second back out for another receiver and put more of an emphasis on the downfield passing game. Guys like Dana Holgorsen, Lincoln Riley and Kingsbury have put their own spin on the Air Raid, implementing RPOs and a more diverse running game.

Leach’s offense has certainly evolved since his move to Washington State, but the volume of the scheme remains relatively small, as evidenced by his comically tiny play-call sheet:

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

That simplicity is what makes Leach’s offenses so good. With limited practice and meeting time in college, there just aren’t enough reps available to install a voluminous scheme. Instead, he focuses on a few base concepts and formations and drills them into his players. Leach isn’t trying to fool opposing defenses; he’s trying to out-execute them. Holgersen puts it best, via Smart Football:

“Leach is so good because he don’t change s**t.”

That approach may work in college, but NFL coaching staffs have enough time and resources at their disposal to figure out such a simplistic approach, as Chip Kelly, who was the Kingsbury of 2013, found out after enjoying early success in Philadelphia. In the following seasons, opposing players were calling out the Eagles’ plays before the snap and his offense never evolved. The same would happen to Leach if he brought his “quality-over-quantity” approach to the NFL.

That shouldn’t be an issue with Kingsbury, who transformed his scheme throughout his time in the college ranks. He’s had success with quarterbacks with varying strengths and weaknesses, including Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield, Davis Webb, Patrick Mahomes and, most recently, Alan Bowman. And he adapted his scheme to best fit the strengths and weaknesses of his skill players. When Kingsbury first arrived in Texas Tech, his best offensive player was TE Jace Amaro. The tight end position was never a big part of the Air Raid, but Kingsbury adapted, using Amaro all over the field in a variety of ways to create mismatches — similar to the way pro teams now use their tight ends. Then it was RB DeAndre Washington’s turn to take center stage. He ran for 1,000 yards in both 2014 and 2015 while being featured in the passing game. Then came Mahomes who helped turn Tech’s offense into a downfield passing attack. After Mahomes was drafted by the Chiefs, the receivers became the focal point. Keke Coutee, a slot receiver coming off an impressive rookie campaign with the Texans, caught 93 balls for 1,429 yards and 10 touchdowns after Kingsbury prioritized the quick passing game. This past season, Texas Tech leaned heavily on its two towering receivers, Antoine Wesley (6’5″) and T.J. Vasher (6’6″), and incorporated more perimeter throws.

Kingsbury has proven he can make the necessary changes at a macro level. The key to his success in the NFL will be his ability to make tweaks at a micro level. At Texas Tech, he was able to keep opposing defenses off his scent with week-to-week changes.

Good stuff @CoachDanCaseyI watched or DVR’d every game he coached at Tech. A lot of these games I’m just taking notes looking for something new he would bring out. He would ALWAYS have 1-3 plays a game that would make you say “Dang, that’s creative”. https://t.co/En7rF3jdwg

Leach is so good because “he don’t change s**t.” Kingsbury is good for the opposite reason, which will serve him well in the NFL.

Kingsbury’s willingness to mold his scheme to feature his most talented players was sorely needed in Arizona last season. We just watched Mike McCoy (and Byron Leftwich after him) fail to properly utilize dynamic talents like RB David Johnson and rookie WR Christian Kirk, who was drafted in the second round thanks to his yards-after-catch ability. Coaching around the Cardinals woeful offensive line certainly made McCoy’s job harder — especially when it came to getting the most out of Johnson in the run game — but his solution to the problem was uninspiring.

David Johnson's run chart from last night looks identical to his run charts from Weeks 1 through 6. We all know it, but Mike McCoy needs to go. Just an incredible lack of creativity. pic.twitter.com/kNRrA6aWy9

There are much better ways to get Johnson the ball than just running him up the middle behind a bad line. But stubborn coaches are so concerned with establishing the run and creating a “balanced” attack that it never occurs to them that a quick pass to the perimeter is a viable workaround for a line incapable of opening holes in the running game. Smarter coaches realize that offensive balance isn’t simply a 50-50 run-pass split; true balance is getting the ball to all of your play-makers, regardless of the delivery method, as Leach explained after Washington State won a game with zero rushing yards.

“There’s nothing balanced about 50% run-50% pass, ’cause that’s 50% stupid. What is balance is when you have five skill positions and all five of them are contributing to the effort in somewhat equal fashion — that’s balance. This notion that if you hand one guy 50% of the time and then you throw it to a combination of two guys the other 50% that you’re really balanced. You probably pat yourself on the back and tell yourself that. People have been doing that for decades. Well, then you’re delusional.”

“Our main offensive objective is to get the ball to all five skill positions as many times as possible throughout the course of the game. We feel that if we evenly distribute the ball to all skill players, this will stress the defense and force them to account for the entire field. We keep a close eye on how we are distributing the ball both during the game and throughout the season. Our quarterback is also well aware of the importance of proper ball distribution and is informed of how we are doing.”

Johnson may not carry the ball as many times as he has in the past, but his touches will not decrease. You’ll just see ill-fated running plays replaced with smart designs like this one…

“David Johnson is a tremendous asset,” Kingsbury said during his introductory press conference. “He’s a guy who can come out of the backfield, go between the tackles, you can motion him out, he’s a mismatch in space. I can’t wait for our offensive coaches to get their hands on him and use him as many ways as possible.”

While Johnson’s workload should stay the same, Kirk can expect more touches in 2019. Kingsbury will undoubtedly utilize him in the vertical passing game, but expect to see more quick passing plays that get him the ball in space…

Better utilizing Johnson and Kirk will be important, but Kingsbury’s success as a coach will hinge on the development of QB Josh Rosen. At the very least, Kingsbury’s quarterback-friendly offense should make things easier on 21-year-old.

No quarterback was pressured more often (37.2%), threw into a tight window more often (21.6%), or had a lower expected completion percentage (59.4%)—based on the difficulty of the throw—than Josh Rosen did in 2018.

Judging by Kingsbury’s comments on Rosen during his first press conference as the Cardinals coach, it sounds like the two should get along, which was a concern for some given Rosen’s reputation for being outspoken and Kingsbury’s contentious relationship Baker Mayfield, who has a similar reputation.

“I will not run a play on a football field unless I know why we’re running it and what we’re trying to accomplish,” Rosen said. “That’s just how I function. I don’t run a 4.5 [second 40-yard dash], so if things go bad, I can’t just hit the exit button. So, I like to understand a playbook in its entirety.”

Some coaches may be turned off by that kind of thinking from their quarterback, but it doesn’t sound like Kingsbury is one of them.

“I played that position and try to see it from their eyes,” Kingbury said. “I want to customize the offense to what they do best and make sure they understand me as a play-caller.”

Kingsbury’s customization of the Cardinals offense will likely involve more throws from under center — where Rosen was a far better passer in 2018 — and more play-action fakes. Some of the formations may change and play designs will be tweaked, but the overarching philosophies that have guided Kingsbury and other members of the Air Raid family will not. Those philosophies have slowly infiltrated the pro game over the last few years — to the point where organizations, which used to view the words “Air Raid” as taboo, are now willing to hand the keys to their franchise over to an Air Raid disciple.

The Cardinals aren’t just dipping their toes into the Air Raid waters, as the Chiefs did after drafting Mahomes; they’re diving in head-first. So, no, they aren’t just following in the footsteps of the Rams, who plucked McVay from another pro team. They’re taking a chance no NFL team has ever been willing to take. If Kingsbury is successful, they won’t be the last, and teams will be scrambling to find the next Kliff Kingsbury.

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Kliff Kingsbury clearly is ready for the NFL. But is it ready for him?

Kliff Kingsbury isn’t the next Sean McVay — and has never tried to be.

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