073
FXUS65 KPUB 100525
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1025 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the next 24
hours. Day time humidity levels will drop below critical fire
weather thresholds for most of the lower elevations again on Sunday.
Although spotty critical fire weather conditions did materialize
across the far eastern plains (Kiowa and Baca counties) late this
morning through early afternoon...winds have since decreased...and
winds through the mixed layer on Sunday look even lighter. There
could be some near critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon
across the far eastern counties but this looks less likely than
today and not widespread enough or long enough in duration to
require any headlines. Regardless, the dry humidity values will
still allow fires to spread efficiently even where winds are light.
Challenges in the forecast will be how cold trapping valleys get
overnight given the very dry airmass and potential for efficient
radiational cooling. Went closer to the cold side of guidance for
places like Alamosa and Creede given last nights performance. Sunday
should yield temperatures a degree or two warmer than today`s.
-KT
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
The omega block off the west coast and stationary trough over the
eastern conus will keep dry northwesterly flow across Southern
Colorado for the next several days.
Sunday night through Thursday...dry northwest flow is forecast to
prevail through this period. Temperatures will be dependent on
various cold fronts that push south across the Plains. Cold fronts
are expected Sunday night and again by Thursday. Temperatures will
generally range from lower to mid 50s on Monday and Thursday,
while Tuesday and Wednesday reach into the lower to mid 60s. Brisk
north winds out near the Kansas border will likely produce near
critical fire weather conditions for Monday afternoon.
Friday and Saturday...an upper disturbance will retrograde the
blocking pattern west, tracking the disturbance south across
Colorado Friday into Saturday. This system appears to be moisture
starved, with the GFS developing light precipitation over the
Central Mountains Friday afternoon, and spreading it east over the
Plains by Saturday morning behind a cold front. The ECMWF has no
precipitation with the trough passage, with just cooler air on
Saturday. Temperatures will reach into the lower to mid 60s on
Friday, with mid 50s on Saturday. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
VFR across all of srn CO and at all taf sites the next 24 hrs
with light winds under 12 kts.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN