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Travel Business Analyst is marked 'TBA'.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
27 March 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’stop-3 no-frills-airlines in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +6.5% for Southwest, +31.1% (sic) Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

AsPac 2014 outbound, travel industry updates
26 March 2015
-We calculate that visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific grew about-5.1% to 234mn in 2014, and outbound travel from AsPac markets about-9.2% to 236mn. Most of that outbound is from China (yes, 54%); without China, the AsPac total would have been about-5.4% to 127mn.
-Frankfurt airport handled 60mn passengers, +2.6%, in 2014.
-US (nationals only) outbound 4.9mn, +10%, in January.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
25 March 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.5% for AF+KL, +8.6% BA+IB+VY, -1.2% LH+LX+OS.

No-frills-/full-service-airlines, Asia Pacific/Europe
24 March 2015
We calculate that seat sales for NFAs (no-frills-airlines) in Europe grew about-7.5% in 2014. That was almost double the about-3.4% for FSAs (full-service-airlines). The difference was much less in Asia Pacific – about-7.7% for NFAs, not much faster than the about-6.3% for FSAs.

China/Japan; outbound Japan, Korea
20 March 2015
-Is the China/Japan political face-off ending – for non-politicos? Arrivals in Japan from China in the first two months grew 99%. That helped Japan to report an extraordinary 43% growth in total arrivals over Jan-Feb. That’s the good news. The bad is that outbound travel continues to crumble – down 6% over Jan-Feb.

-It happened much faster and much bigger than we expected. Korea is now a bigger outbound travel market than Japan. Jan-Feb: 2.5mn from Japan; 3.3mn from Korea.

US travel agencies, Cathay Pacific
19 March 2015
-ARC reports that ticket sales by US-based travel agencies were US$7.7bn, +0.03% in February.
-Cathay Pacific with Dragonair:
-Took exactly the same revenue per seat sold in 2014 as in 2013 – US$433. However, operating profit grew 11.8% to US$18 per seat sold.
-Sold 31.6mn seats, +5.5%, in 2014.
-Sold 2.68mn seats, +12.4%, in February.

World hotel results
18 March 2015
The December hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.0; AsPac -0.2; Europe 3.0; US 2.4. Previous month: 1.2; -2.5; 3.5; 1.3.

Korea overtaking Japan
17 March 2015
Korea is on track to become a larger outbound travel market than Japan. We estimate 16.6mn travellers from Japan in the next 12 months, probably Jan-Dec this year, and 16.9mn from Korea.

Index, travel stocks
16 March 2015
The February ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 179; AsPac 98; Europe 125; US 315. (Base: Dec 06.)

ITB Berlin 2015
9 March 2015
Some results for last week’s ITB Berlin were better than we outlined in a report last week. Details:
-175,000 total visitors, +0.6%.
-115,000 trade visitors, +0.9%, of which 43% were from abroad, +3pts. Their length of stay was 2.4 days. +14.3%.
-10,096 exhibitors, -0.5%, from 186 countries, -1.6%.
-23,000 visitors, +4.5%, attended ITBB’s convention, but as entrance is free, the count is not a clear indicator of its value.
-Volume of business conducted (a figure not possible to verify) was US$7.4bn (at US$1 to €0.90), +3.1%. We calculate that as: US$42,500 per visitor, +2%; US$64,750 per trade visitor, +2%; US$737,000 per exhibitor, +4%.

ITB Berlin data
6 March 2015
-This week’s ITB Berlin appears to be smaller. All 2015 data will not be available until next week. But organisers Messe Berlin announced 10,096 exhibitors from 186 countries, and at least 100,000 trade visitors. In 2014 there were 10,147 exhibitors from 189 countries, a total 174,000 visitors including 114,000 trade visitors.
-Maldives expects that being the country partner of ITB Berlin (ITBB 2015 to ITB 2016) will “attract a visitor increase of around 8%”. This will be impossible to measure as the DMO forecasts 4mn visitors for 2015. It reports this as a 20% growth, although it is actually 30%. But whether +20% or +30%, the 8% thanks to ITBB will be part of that total, and not possible to separate.
-Mongolia targets 1mn visitors in 2020, contributing 14% of GDP. 2014: ‘about’ 400k and 5.3%.
-Myanmar visitor arrivals in 2014 were 3.08mn, +50.7%.
-Euromonitor says private travel rentals were worth US$39bn in 2013 and forecasts US$46bn in 2018. It reports this as 19% growth, which looks sizeable. But it is actually only an annual average 3.4%, which is laughably small. We estimate 20% annual growth, which, on Euromonitor’s 2013 total, would mean near US$100bn in 2018.

TBA All-Travel Index
The October ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +1%.

Travel industry updates
27 February 2015Seat sales by the world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines
Our calculation of seats sold by top-3 no-frills-airlines in December, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +3.1% for Southwest, +19.9% Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

Travel industry updates
26 February 2015Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in December, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.3% for AF+KL, +10.8% BA+IB, -1.2% LH+LX+OS.

Air Asia Q4
-Air Asia’s India operation seems to be starting well. In Q4 seat factor at 84% the highest of AA’s six airlines, and seat sales were 70% above its first operating Q, Q3. However, Q4 was bad for the group – growing only 2% - following falls in seat sales for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines.

Airport passenger traffic in Europe
25 February 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +7.8% (all airports +3.8%). Last month: +5.0% (+6.8%).

World hotel results
24 February 2015
The November hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.2; AsPac -2.5; Europe 3.5; US 1.3. Previous month: 1.4; -0.1; 1.8; 2.3.

China, US
23 February 2015
With most data in, although still some provisional or our estimates, here are the 2014 accounts and salient points of the two big world travel businesses – China and the US.China in
Previous official counts do not add up to the all-2014 total given – but the difference is not substantial. Our counts show foreign (passport holders) visitors were flat (+0.5%).
Of the biggest sources (in size): Koreans +5%, Japanese -6%, US nationals +0.4%.
But note the distortion - an American national living in Hong Kong, for example, is counted as being from the US when he enters China.China out.
A storming end to the year, after some weak earlier months. We estimate the total grew 15%.US in.
Heading for a mixed year. Growth 7%, and slightly higher, closer to +8%, for the overseas markets (non Canada, Mexico). The best was Mexico, representing around 23% of the total – and growing at 20%!
That overall growth hides the fact that two or the top-4 markets were falling – Canada, Japan. The other, the UK, was +3%. US out.
Total +10%. But the big item was travel to Mexico. This seems to be a mutual pact, with outbound +22% matching the +20% inbound-from-Mexico. That growth makes Mexico 37% of the total.
Europe and Asia Pacific were each +4%, but the Caribbean (smaller than Europe but bigger than AsPac) was +10%.

Index, travel stocks
12 February 2015
The January ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 172; AsPac 101; Europe 124; US 290. (Base: Dec 06.)

Airlines’ 2014
30 January 2015
Some comments on 2014 results for selected airlines in Europe, based on seats sold:
-Trouble at Air France-KLM (probably a fall only for AF but they hide the data), flat (+0.2%).
-Not much better at the Lufthansa group (Austrian, Lufthansa, Swiss), only +1%. Nevertheless, Lufthansa-alone became bigger than AF+KL.
-That makes IAG (British + Iberia, and soon Aer Lingus) sparkle, +9%.
-Air Berlin does not seem to profit from Oneworld membership or Etihad ownership – just +1%.
-Europe’s largest, Ryanair, +6%, but seems to have solved its winter-weakness problem – Nov +22%, Dec +20%.
-Has Norwegian – darling of the media – lost its way? +16% for the year, but only +5% Nov, +2% Dec.
-Easyjet overtakes Lufthansa on Europe routes to become region’s 2nd biggest after Ryanair.
-Secret airlines. We estimate seat sales of two airlines whose data not published. Lufthansa’s Germanwings +4%, IAG’s Vueling +25%.

Airline group traffic
26 January 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in November, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.1% for AF+KL, +8.8% BA+IB, +1.6% LH+LX+OS.

Airports
22 January 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +6.8%). Last month: +5.0% (+4.7%).

Index, travel stocks
20 January 2015
The December ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 171; AsPac 94; Europe 113; US 306. (Base: Dec 06.)

-China’sBig-3 airlines. No change in order, but significant developments nevertheless. China Eastern remains largest in 2014 in international seats sold, 9.6mn, but it grew only 6%. Air China grew 18% and so reached just over 9.2mn, and China Southern grew even faster, 21%, taking it to just under 9.2mn. Equality has returned to China!
If growths continue at those same rates this year, CS will be largest at end-2015, with just over 11mn seats sold, then AC with just under 11mn, and CE with just over 10mn.

Egypt, Scoot
13 January 2015
-A sort-of political stability in Egypt may have brought better results for its hotels. On a same-store basis, we estimate that in 2014 occupancy fell 9.0% to 32%. But average room rates grew 13.2% to US$72 (based on a constant US$s, at US$1 to EL7.15).
But current-day results are worse – 2014 occupancy -5% to 28%, ARR -13% to US$122.

-Getting figures from words from (a hazardous task) we calculate Scoot sold an average of 167k seats monthly over the past six months. That’s the same as the previous six months, but that earlier period included peak months, so the result looks good. Annual growth seems to be running at just under 17%.
Scoot’s annual count is around 2mn. That is less that Air Asia X at the same stage of its life (2.4mn, +32%). And its current monthly seat sales are smaller – AAX was close to 350k/month in 2014.

8 January 2015
Big Changes: British Airways, Club Med, Lufthansa.
To start the new year, our thoughts on what we believe are important changes that will have a wider affect outside these companies. At British/Aer Lingus, Club Med, Lufthansa/Germanwings.

British Airways
In December, IAG (a holding company that comprises British, Iberia, Vueling) made a surprise bid to buy Aer Lingus (AL). There was an initial refusal, as usual, and there is likely to be further developments.
But outside that there are important factors. At the time British (BA) and Iberia formed IAG in 2011, we said BA should have taken over AL and not Iberia – which was in trouble and which is still not out of it.
Part of our reasoning was that the Willie Walsh, head of BA (and now also of IAG), had previously been 26 years at AL, including his CEO role there. To say the least, he must have known a lot about AL.
If he did not buy then because AL was not in a good state (it was losing money at the time he left), then Walsh was presumably not a good CEO. (Indeed, we also raised the question as to why BA had chosen him.)
And why now buy AL now? If AL is in better shape – it is, marginally – then that is an even more negative comment about Walsh.
But overall, IAG’s move may be for different reasons. FSAs* in Europe (and in many other regions as well), such as BA, are finding it hard to survive. IAG has already bought Vueling, part-LCA*/part-NFA*. And AL could be another move in this direction; AL is similar to Vueling – albeit NFA on its intraEurope routes, and FSA/LCA on its transAtlantic flights.
Ironically, British has been here before, being in the rather ridiculous situation of having started two NFAs itself and then selling them off – because, in the common- but often-misguided-belief, that it must ‘stick to its core competence’.
Air France is still trying to reorganise itself to expand its NFA Transavia into an LCA – although it is so far being prevented by unions in France from doing so. And Lufthansa is doing the same thing, see below.

Club Med
China’s Fosun has agreed to buy Club Med at a price that values the company at about US$1.1bn (although that is not the amount paid by Fosun). Fosun first bought into CM, just 10%, in 2010. At the time this investment was cheered, because Fosun would surely save CM (although the logic was shakey; Fosun was a Chinese company and China was an important and growing travel market – but Fosun was not in the travel business before that!).
The stockmarket, at least, does not think Fosun has been much help – CM’s share price has fallen from over US$150 in 2000 to around US$30 now. It is trying to go upmarket. Even though that is far from its image, even today, still it persists.
We need to go back a long way to explain today’s problems at CM. A commentary in People-in-Travel, a version of which was published in The Economist in the year Fosun bought its 10%:
The reason CM’s decline started - in the 1980s - was when co-founder Gilbert Trigano preferred to give the top job to his son Serge rather than the then equal number-two, Jean-Robert Reznik - who was generally considered to have a better grasp of marketing. Serge was just the son of his dad.
Going up-market seems a sound business tactic - getting more revenue per customer. But there are some important challenges: converting existing customers to accept, in effect, a new product costing more; or finding new customers; or making more profit from a product that costs more to produce.
We believe the post-Trigano- and subsequent-teams underestimated these challenges, and indeed were not able to overcome them.
Also, Henri Giscard d’Estaing has been in his post more than 10 years [now 15] and has also failed to make the upmarket push (which he has tried twice [now four]) to work. The blame is put on 9/11 but the decline started well before that.
We are amazed that HGdE is still in the top job after 15 years of failure. For the present he will stay, but surely Fosun will replace him in the next six months? But to do what? CM is now such a mess of products and marketing messages that it is probably not possible to save.
One way might be to dump the luxury and return to the original formula – simplicity, fun. The other way – build luxury resorts – does not seem to be what customers want, and is certainly still not the image inspired by the CM name.
But then there is Fosun. We know little about its competence in strategy, but we guess it has little, if any, in the travel business. But, being a Chinese company, proud, it will not back down for some time (five years?) and then either steadily drop the luxury business and concentrate on fun resorts in locations popular with pleasure-seekers from China – such as Hainan, Maldives, and probably also Club Med’s France homeland.

Lufthansa
The Lufthansa Group (LG) is reworking its airline strategy. It has broadly understood what needs to be done, but its changes are 4-times more complicated than they need to be. Let us explain:
As we have noted before, FSAs of a certain size (we are not certain of numbers, but one measure could be around 70mn seat sales in a year) need to operate an LCA and NFA as well as their FSA. The LG has its FSA Lufthansa (LH; plus Austrian, Swiss), and its NFA Germanwings (GW). GW is not a success because LH controls it too tightly; LG did not follow NFA ‘rules’ - see end of this story.
Now LG is trying again, albeit in an unnecessary complicated way. Firstly, this is what LG plans (slightly abridged to make it easier to follow!): LH has transferred its intraEurope routes not serving Frankfurt and Munich hubs to GW, and GW and Eurowings will continue also to operate their current networks. Longhaul services, due end-2015, will be with Sun Express (a JV of Lufthansa and Turkish).
LH is needed, but only two others – such as GW as an LFA, and Eurowings (with or without Sun Express) as an LCA. Under the present plans, Eurowings, GW, Sun are all part-LCA/part-NFA; in marketing terms alone, surely LG management can see that is a dumb plan?
But the plan may simply show that LG management still does not know what to do. After making the first mistake with GW, this seems strange. But perhaps it will learn from what both Air France and British/IAG are trying to do, and then make the necessary further changes in its own structure.
We give LG two years before it readjusts its structure closer to what we are saying.

*Notes:-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs (cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. Usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.)-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

26 December 2014
Airline groups. Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -1.4% for AF+KL, +16.8% BA+IB, +1.7% LH+LX+OS.

23 December 2014
-Airline profits. IATA forecasts member airlines will report US$19.9bn net profit in 2014 - up from US$18.0bn forecast in June - and US$25.0bn in 2015.
-Alitalia expects to sell 800,000 seats, +7%, over Xmas/New Year Dec 23-Jan 7.
-Economy, premium air travel. IATA says seat sales in member airlines’ economy classes were +3.7%, premium +2.9%, in October.
-Japan v Korea. TBA estimates that Korea will just miss becoming a bigger outbound travel market this year than Japan – despite the big population difference (50mn, 127mn). We estimate 15.7mn for Korea and 17.0mn for Japan. On current trends, the switch should take place in Q3 2015.

22 December 2014
Airports. Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for July, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +4.7%). Last month: +5.4% (+5.9%).

19 December 2014
The September hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.4; AsPac -0.1; Europe 1.8; US 2.3. Previous month: 1.9; 4.6; -1.3; 2.4.

16 December 2014
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for November: World +17%, US +17%, AsPac +29%, Eur +4%.-Index, travel stocks. The November ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 168; AsPac 92; Europe 114; US 299. (Base: Dec 06.)

15 December 2014
-Air Berlin sold 2.02mn seats, +0.5%, in November.
-Easyjet sold 4.39mn seats, +3.1%, in November.
-Ryanair all-2014 forecast increased from 89mn sold seats to 90mn, which would be +10.6%.

9 December 2014
-Visitors from China into Switzerland forecast by Timetric to overtake those from France by 2018.
-Europe visitor arrivals +5% Q3. Source: ECM, Forward Keys.
-Japan Tourism Agency. Appointed Accenture for a 7-month contract to boost visitor arrivals in the target to count 20mn visitors in 2020. On present trends Japan will easily achieve that total.

5 December 2014
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closed yesterday. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.

[] LeadingHotels, US.
-Due to launch an advertising campaign – a description it eschews, preferring ‘brand strategy’ – in 2015.
-Follows change of owners six years ago. It says it spent five years fixing the company, and this year “we started thinking about what we do from here”.

[] SixSenses, Thailand.
-Opened its first property in Europe, 90 minutes from Porto, Portugal. Was house, built around 1900; comprehensive renovation.
-Chose another corporate name for its properties in China - Liu Shan. Means roughly ‘six wellness’.
-Sees substantial opportunities for development in Central and South America, but also in Africa.
-Also looking for urban properties, even Manhattan.

[] SmallLuxuryHotels, UK.
-Company, owned primarily by CEO Paul Kerr, sold to the owners of two of its resorts in Spain. Not yet officially announced, and new owners have not yet taken over operationally; they are currently looking for a CEO.
-Operations. Average room rate still not back to pre-crisis 2008 when it was US$400 (quoted in US$); this year about US$360. In 2005, business share from travel agencies was 75%; now 55%. YTD increase in mobile bookings 62%.
-It may add boats/yachts to its product offer.

[] Starwood, US.
-Its luxury division (brands Luxury Collection (sic), St Regis, W) due to open 18 hotels in 2015. Most in one year before this was 12.

[] Virtuoso, US.
-Turnover (gross booking value) expected to be US$14bn, +12.0%, this year.
-Has just added 16 travel agency members in Europe. (Members, of which it has 355, are only outbound travel agencies. Its partners of which there are 1700, are suppliers and include inbound travel agencies.)

Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots blog, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

4 December 2014
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closes today. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.

[] BanyanTree, Singapore.
-Plans to open 30 properties in next two years; currently it has 37.
-Launched Cassia this year as its third brand. BT launched 20 years ago; Angsana 12 years.
-First Cassia is due to be Phuket; five are confirmed. Will be a sort of time-share; BT does not use that term. The hotels’ units will be separately-owned and owners get 60 days accommodation.
-A fourth brand is due to be launched in 2015. It will be at a standard similar to Cassia.

[] Belmond, ex-OrientExpress, UK.
-Due to add another train product, in Ireland, in 2015. This will be its 46th ‘product’ – primarily hotels but also cruises and trains.
-It has signed its first management contract – for the small Cadogan hotel in London. Currently closed for renovation, it is due to reopen in 2016.

[] DorchesterCollection, UK.
-Publicity/promotional activity have been reduced this year following boycotts after the group’s owner, the Sultan of Brunei, introduced the sharia-law system in his country. It is certain that DC’s revenue has fallen this year as a result.
-At its Plaza Athenee in Paris, added ballroom and 14 suites in adjacent buildings bought for this expansion.

[] FourSeasons, Canada.
-Moved its EAME regional office from Switzerland to Dubai.
-Launching private 52-seat B757 service in FS colours, with flat-bed seats, wifi etc. Jet not owned by FS; leased from Switzerland-based TAG Aviation through US-based tour operator TCS Expeditions (whose other B757s have 78 seats).
-First of five itineraries/year due February 2015. Because this will be well short of full utilisation, FS’s B757 is also available for charter.
-Openings in past few days/weeks - Orlando in Disneyland, Dubai, Johannesburg (reopening). Due soon - Bahrain Q1 2015, London (its third, in Trinity Square) 2016.

[] ILTM, France.
-Organisers hosted seven media for the exhibition when it started in 2002. They hosted 70 this year; Travel Business Analyst was not one.

[] Kyoto, Japan.
-Targets 3mn foreign visitors in 2020. It was 1.13mn in 2013; that would mean annual average growth of 15.0%, and thus the target is unlikely to be reached.

Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots blog, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

2 December 2014
‘TBA All-Travel Index’. The August index in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +1% over the same month in 2013. Previous month -4%.

26 November 2014ITB/IPK. A report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains serious criticism of a report on ITB/IPK’s World Travel Monitor, and recommends readers to ignore the so-called findings.

24 November 2014
Airline groups. Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -17.4% for AF+KL, +11.4% BA+IB, +3.6% LH+LX+OS.

21 November 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.66mn seats, +5.0%, in October.
-PATA. Included in its Annual Tourism Monitor: AsPac arrivals (which for PATA includes some distant destinations such as Chile) were 238mn, +5.2%, Jan-Jun.
-Thailand visitors 2.18mn, +6.1%, in October.

20 November 2014
-Easyjet sold 71.5mn seats, +5.1%, in its year through September.
-Trampolinn now has 12,000 members and 5000 products. Launched in March 2014 as an AirBnB-like operation in Europe – but with exchange accommodation, not paid.

19 November 2014
The August hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.9; AsPac 4.6; Europe -1.3; US 2.4. Previous month: 0.7; -0.7; 0.2; 2.5.

17 November 2014-Index, travel stocks. The October ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 157; AsPac 84; Europe 103; US 285. (Base: Dec 06.)

12 November 2014Air Asia. Its report for Q3 jumps over or ignores the bad news that we see in the latest traffic figures. These are the main ones, in order of damage:
-AA Malaysia, the core operation, seat sales were flat (+0.47%).
-AA Indonesia seat sales fell 10.1%.
-AA Philippines seat sales fell a shocking 15.4%. And its seat factor is at a dangerously-low 62.9%.
For all AA divisions, Q3 growth was just 1.2%. YTD growth, at +10.3%, still looks reasonable, even though this is half the rate in 2013.
AA India’s first figures reported; no comparison of course. Its seat factor was a reasonable 76.3%, but we estimate that it needs to be at least 5-points higher.

VirginAustralia. Recently, VA changed again its manner of presenting data, although we can still make the adjustments to present a standardised view. With this, we can see that there are some measures indicating that all is not well at the company.
Some comments on VA’s latest report:
-Growth in seat sales on domestic-Australia is bad, -1.9% in Q3 and +1.8% YTD.
-International growth in seat sales is weak (for a newish operator internationally), just +2.1% in Q3 and 6.3% YTD. That said, seat factor is good – 83%, 81%.
-Tiger Australia, now part of the VA group, is also weak. Q3 growth was +5.6% (on figures which are restated – although VA does not tell you that). That may look reasonable - but not for a relaunched no-frills-airline. YTD looks better, +8.0%, but we think it should be closer to 15%.

MalaysiaAirlines. No relief in sight. September figures show a 12.9% fall in international seats sold although YTD is still 2.4% ahead. Surprisingly, domestic is almost as bad, down 11.8% in the latest month; normally this would be expected to recover sooner.

ThaiAirways. It’s getting worse! September figures show a 23.4% fall in international seats sold and YTD -22.9%! Although we don’t have all the figures, the problem seems to be more domestic traffic than international. Some measures (RPKs) show -44.1% in September and -27.9% YTD. We expected a slight recovery around this time; these figures are bad.

10 November 2014-China outbound travel. We calculate growth 13.6% Jan-Aug, and almost the same, 13.9%, in August. Is this lower rate (for the past four years it has been +18-22%) the new reality?

-China inbound travel. The DMO is starting to provide deeper data. Summarising, the Jan-Sep visitor total shows a high non-leisure share – which we long suspected but could not see in the data. Although these might not be perfect separations, only 33.9% is defined as Leisure; 20.5% Business; 2.3% VFR. The rest includes crew and ‘workers’ (not otherwise defined), but then 30.7% ‘Others’. We presume that includes diplomatic visitors but perhaps also those travelling with official and semi-official delegations. All this makes the non-core categories (core are leisure, business, VFR) the biggest single share, with 43.3%. These categories are shown by country counts – but that leads to the other big caveat. The breakdowns are by passport, so many of those American, Australian, British, and other visitors, will actually be living in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, etc. Caveat lector.

-India outbound travel. We have started a monthly estimate, as official data is slow to be published, and is usually produced annually. For Jan-Jun this shows 8.3mn, a 1.2% fall.

-Thailand inbound travel. Overall visitors -7.0% in September (although on official figures given in 2013, we calculate the fall to be -10.1% - perhaps the new government counts differently?). The two markets to watch – China -6.3% (still down; we thought it would start to pick up around now), Russia -19.7%. At Bangkok airport, where you can assume there are more business travellers, VFRs, others, it was worse – China -18.1%, Russia -34.2%! YTD that leaves the all-country total -10.3%, China -17.4%, Russia still up, +3.2%.

A report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter charges the marketing strategy of European Cities Marketing as misguided, following ECM’s new report on hotel results.

30 October 2014
Travel industry updates:
-China outbound. TBA’s calculation for July, the latest month, shows travel has recovered slightly – +11.6% after growing only +6.9% the month earlier. YTD has been pulled down to +13.6%. All these are well down on the +18.7% for all-2013.
-Dubai airport. Handled 5.94mn passengers, +9.9%, in September.

29 October 2014
‘TBA All-Travel Index’. The June index in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at -4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +2%.

A report on France in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains critical comment on the visitor arrivals business and the new businessplan for the state-owned rail company.

28 October 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.8% for AF+KL, +11.1% BA+IB, +4.1% LH+LX+OS.

27 October 2014
Our calculation for July, the latest month, shows China outbound travel has recovered slightly – +11.6% after growing only +6.9% the month earlier. YTD has been pulled down to +13.6%. All these are well down on the +18.7% for all-2013.

23 October 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.49mn seats, +4.6%, in September.
-Compagnie des Alpes sales were US$877mn, +2.2% - ski US$492mn -1.3%, leisure US$378mn +6.3% - in its year through September. CDA has 36 sites; best-known are Val d’Isere, Parc Asterix, Futuroscope.A full report on this topic in the November issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

An advance summary of the Global Trends Report 2014 by Euromonitor for next month’s World Travel Market – which contains some puzzling comments - is strongly criticised in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.

20 October 2014
Our YTD through June calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.4% (all airports +5.9%). Last month: +3.5% (+4.5%).

A review of two new reports* on the China outbound market in the Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter says they leave much to be desired. (*From Hotels.com and Timetric.)

17 October 2014
The July hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.7; AsPac -0.7; Europe 0.2; US 2.5. Previous month: 2.1; 1.2; 3.3; 1.8.

16 October 2014
-Copenhagen airport handled 2.3mn passengers, +6.4%, in September.
-Etihad* sold 3.9mn seats, +30.0%, in Q3.* A full report on this topic in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.9mn passengers, +5.9%, in September.
-London Heathrow airport handled 6.58mn passengers, +0.3%, in September.
-US international air passengers were 115.7mn, +7%, Jan-Jul.
-US travel agencies sold US$70.6bn of air tickets, +4.8%, in September.

A report entitled ‘Points on Pricing’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the CWT report, ‘Global Travel Price Outlook, 2015’.

15 October 2014
The September ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 154; AsPac 83; Europe 103; US 277. (Base: Dec 06.)

14 October 2014
AirBnB in New York:
-Economic impact US$632mn over one year. And US$104mn in economic activity outside Manhattan. This does seem to match the comment below – that 82% of ABB’s properties are outside the main hotel areas.
-Hosts. 87% share only the home they live in, and take US$7530/year from ABB. 62% said they use ABB income to help afford staying their homes; see note on this for Barcelona. 50% are freelancers, part-time workers, students.
-Guests. Paid US$31mn in sales taxes while visiting. Length-of-stay averages 6.4 nights, compared to 3.9 for hotel guests. They spend US$880 “at New York businesses” compared to US$690 for the average visitor, twice as much – but the daily difference is the other way round; US$138 daily for ABB, US$177 for all visitors. 82% of properties are outside the main hotel areas, and the ABB guest spends an average US$740 in the neighbourhood where they stay.

3 October 2014
An Amadeus study forecasts:
-‘Global travel’ (understood to be essentially visitor arrivals) will grow 5.4%/year over the next 10-years, 2% faster than the world’s annual GDP growth.
-China’s share of outbound travel forecast to be 20% by 2023.
-China will pass the US to become the world’s largest outbound travel market this year and the largest domestic market by 2017. Our data shows China overtook Germany to become largest in 2013 (overtaking the US two years earlier) in terms of trips, and overtaking US in outbound spend in 2013. (Amadeus does not clarify its figures.)
-‘Other large emerging markets, such as Russia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey’ will each also average 5%-plus annual growth over the next 10 years. This is misleading. India is not a large market, and neither is Indonesia – smaller than its tiny neighbour Singapore, for instance.-‘Western shorthaul business travel’ will reach pre-2008 in 2018.
-Asia will account for 55% of global business travel growth in the next 10 years.

29 September 2014
Market notes from GBTA (Global Business Travel Association) about BT (business travel):
-World BT, now growing at about 4%, will go up to around 6% over the next few years.
-In BT per capita, top is Norway, second Austria.-In 2017 AsPac will be spending almost US$1 out of every US$2 spend on BT worldwide.
-In BT, India is about 10 years behind China. India was growing slightly faster than China before India’s recent economic slowdown.
-GBTA thought China would become top BT market in 2014, but now it thinks that will happen in 2016.