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Abstract

The typical probabilistic deterioration model cannot guarantee a reliable long-term prediction for various situations of available condition data. To minimise this limitation, this paper presents an advanced integrated method using state-/time-based model to build a reliable transition probability for prediction long-term performance of bridge elements. A selection process is developed in this method to automatically select a suitable prediction approach for a given situations of condition data. Furthermore, a Backward Prediction Model (BPM) is employed to effectively prediction the bridge performance when the inspection data are insufficient. In this study, a benchmark example-concrete element in bridge substructures is selected to demonstrate that the BPM in conjunction with time-based model can improve the reliability of long-term prediction.