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In the weeks leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline this year, the unthinkable happened: Jeff Samardzija’s name popped up in multiple, credible trade rumors. Outside of the front office’s willingness to discuss any player in trade – you always at least listen – there were reports dating back to Spring Training that discussions between the Cubs and Samardzija on an extension were not proceeding well, and the Cubs might be looking to cash in on his value while they could.

Fast-forward to October, and the Cubs did not trade Samardzija, who is now coming off a 4.34 ERA season (but which looks quite a bit better by the advanced metrics). The Cubs have control over Samardzija for the next two seasons via arbitration, but have made no secret that they’d like to lock him up to a longer-term deal. Talks on such a deal are expected to pick back up this offseason, but sources tell Gordon Wittenmyer that an extension is a “long shot” at this point, given the gap in the two sides’ positions. If an extension doesn’t happen this offseason, and if the Cubs struggle out of the gate next year, we’ll once again hear multiple, credible trade rumors involving Samardzija next July.

I recently wrote about the implications of exploding salaries and the recent trend of mega extensions for in-house stars. With more and more money available to had to marginal talent in free agency, I wondered at what point the pendulum would swing sufficiently far that young, star players are more willing to risk injury or ineffectiveness on the way to a huge free agent score.

Might Jeff Samardzija be such a player?

In some ways, Samardzija could be the perfect player to resist extension overtures in the era of exploding salaries. He’s already banked more than $15 million in salary, so there isn’t the same impetus to get that first big score. His baseball card stats look far worse than his advanced stats, and as appreciation for the latter expands, he might be in a better position to cash in two years from now than today.

You can’t blame a guy for betting on himself, and you also can’t blame the Cubs for being unwilling to pay free agent market price for a guy with two more arbitration years left (and a relatively limited track record of success as a starter). For my part, I’ve long seen the five-year, $55 million Matt Harrison extension as a comparable for Samardzija talks. That extension came after two successful years as a starter, and two years prior to Harrison reaching free agency.

Having made $2.64 million in his first year of arbitration in 2013, I’d think Samardzija would be in line for a raise to something in the $5 million range for 2014. Another successful year, and he could be around $8 to $10 million in 2015. From there, it’s hard to project what kind of salary Samardzija would command in free agency, given the steep rise in market rates over the last two years, and given the uncertainty of Samardzija’s performance.

If Samardzija got $55 million for the next five years, he’d be getting, essentially, $40 million or so for those first three years of free agency. Market price? No. But, given those uncertainties, and the fact that the Cubs would be committing that cash years in advance, it’s a perfectly reasonable deal for both sides. If Samardzija is demanding considerably more than that, I could understand the Cubs’ hesitation.

The Cubs have little motivation to move Samardzija right now. Though he is an asshat intent on showing up his teammates, the fact is he remains a low mileage pitcher with excellent stuff and is signed to an advantageous financial deal. I’d have to be blown away to trade him if I am TheoJed. A LOT of teams would have interest in Spellcheck because baseball is largely starved for good starting pitchers.

If Arizona calls and offers up Archie Bradley then I make that deal in a nanosecond. Not going to happen though.

hansman

“Though he is an asshat intent on showing up his teammates…”

Examples?

DarthHater

“Though I am an asshat intent on making up shit…”

FTFY

Jon

Wasn’t there a couple times this year where Samardzija was visually irritated and upset on the field when he felt a teammate should have made a player that wasn’t.

Pat

Yes, there were. Most notably when Rizzo made an admittedly ill-advised cut-off of a throw home.

Voice of Reason

Blackhawks,

It all depends on if Shark will sign an extension. If he doesn’t, then the Cubs should be motivated to move him immediately! Why take a chance that he gets hurt OR continues to regress like he did at the end of this year?

All the facts you mentioned, the cheap price tag, etc. are all reasons to move him to another team IF he won’t sign an extension with us!

Cubzfann

I know that this does not have a prospect or long-term theme to it, but would a deal with the Angels centered around Trumbo and Bourjos for Shark make sense? For now they would provide us with a decent outfield for 2014. They are both fairly young. And if they excel in any way, we could trade them or trade the prospects coming up that play those positions. Just wondering what you guys think.

YourResidentJag

Not at all. Trumbo has regressed and the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in the majors. You need a potential TOR from the Shark trade.

mjhurdle

agreed. Not sure where all the Trumbo and Bourjos love is coming from today. Bourjos is almost the definition of a replacement level player.

YourResidentJag

It’s because ppl on here seem to want to find that elusive power hitting RH bat, except if they’d only look they’d see he’s already in the system.

CubbieBubba

Trumbo would be cool at 3rd, I think he spent time there but probably makes more sense on a team where he can spot start the corners and DH.
As for Samardzija, is there any way the cubs can pay him for innings 1-4 and then not for the 5th and 6th innings?

Voice of Reason

I’d love to work around a Bourjas/Trumbo for Shark trade. We’ll have to give up more than that to get those two.

Bourjas is definitely their Corey Patterson! A change of scenery might do him some good? And Trumbo…. you just find a place for him in your lineup!

I just left a message for Jed to get on that trade, stat!

Spoda17

We need to trade him. Shark may have passion and heart, but I think it is self motivated. Nothing wrong with wanting to take care of [yourself] but I say go “help” another team. I’d take the prospects.

Blublud

For all the people who jumped on me about DRose’s low Basketball IQ and inefficiencies as a player, there is currently an article on ESPN where he basicly admits he was exactly that. A low IQ, inefficient player.

King Jeff

I think I’m way better as a player,” Rose said before Tuesday’s shootaround. “My IQ has gotten higher and just the way that I play I think I’m a more efficient player.”

I guess we take what we want from other’s words.

Blublud

Why would he be addressing it if wasn’t a reputation of his. How do you guys consider yourselves fans of a player and not know his reputation. That’s been his reputation since memphis, where he couldn’t even shoot 60% on free throws. I know cause he cost me some money.

DocPeterWimsey

Nearly all players say those things about themselves. It seems to be a common lament among retiring players: they often feel like they “know” the game better than they ever have, yet their bodies don’t keep up with their knowledge!

mjhurdle

I’ve gotten better at my job in the last year. I guess that means i was a low-IQ, inefficient programmer at this same time last year.

I don’t follow the NBA closely at all, but using that quote to say that D-Rose “admits” that he was a low-IQ, inefficient player is comical.

Blublud

DRose is believed to have a regular IQ of between 75-80. That’s pretty much a DUMMY. I feel bad just listening to his interviews. His BBall IQ has always been a knock against. His inefficiency has always been a knock against. He had one of the most inefficient seasons by a MVP of all time. That’s why he specifically adressed those 2. Its not coincidental that we just had this convo about people stated this about him then he brings the subject up himself.

Jon

Do you have any basis for this, or are you just making shit up. I think the later.

Blublud

Not that everything you read on the internet is true but you can google it.

Chicago4life

Based on your posts, Blublud, I am going to go ahead and assume if Rose’s IQ is between 70-80, that yours it below 70.

http://Odu Greenroom

Jon, this coming from a guy who routinely pulls fecal matter out of the air to form opinions. I am still amused by your “Ricketts is putting Theo in his place” comment.

mjhurdle

Like I said, I don’t follow NBA, so I just did some quick checks through Google…and it appears that my first impression of your post was correct.
Anytime someone has an opinion where the best support they can muster is ” (Something) is believed” , there probably isn’t much relevance to that opinion.
I can’t find any definitive record of D-Rose’s IQ. I also can’t find a consensus that possesses either a high or low BB IQ.
Which means that, for whatever reason, you have a preconceived bias against D-Rose that makes you believe that the little evidence out there points to him being a dummy, as opposed to the little evidence that is out there that says he isn’t.
And that’s fine, you can have your opinion. But stop trying to portray it as anything other than ‘I don’t like DRose, so Im going to bag on him whenever I get a chance”.

Jon

I love how he comes back, and re-hashes this old topic, thinking he will vindicate himself, only to get bashed even more for manipulating a single quote. He would have been better off just not posting.

Blublud

When Lebron makes a comment about his post game being better, its because it was believed he didn’t have a post game.

When DWade suggest his 3pt shot is improved this offseason, its because believed he doesn’t have a 3pt shot.

When Dez Bryant suggest his attitude has improve, it because it believed his attitude was a problem.

When Tom Coughlin comments that he has loosened up on his players, its becaused its believed he was a hard ass.

When Javier Baez comments about an improved approach at the plate, its because its believed he had a bad one.

This is just a few examples.

Usually when a player addresses something about their game that has improved, in any sport, especially when specifically addressing an individual part of their game, and not their all around game, it’s usually because they know their game was lacking in that aspect. This is probably true almost everytime. Not just for DRose, but for pretty much most players.

mjhurdle

Usually when a player addresses something about their game that has improved, in any sport, especially when specifically addressing an individual part of their game, and not their all around game, it’s usually because they know their game GOT BETTER in that aspect.

FTFY

Blublud

Look. Anybody who follows basketball closely knows DRose has always been “accused” of having a low BBall IQ and inefficiency problems. Non BBall related, but he speaks like a teenager. That’s sad within itself and proof that he’s not the brightest guy.

Now for all you metric guys, look at his metrics and they will prove he is inefficient. His usage rate vs output will expose his basic stats. Yeah, his ppg, apg stats look good. But his points per shot, fg %, asst/to rate, player efficient rate and they all suggest he is closer to average, and in some areas below average for his position, then elite when talking about efficiency.

FullCountTommy

Why does it matter how “bright” Derrick Rose is??? He gets paid to play basketball and he does that at an MVP level, all while remaining probably the most humble professional athlete I have ever seen. He does a ton of charity work in the inner city and is a great mentor for inner city youth, so who gives a damn what his IQ is, which by the way, you have absolutely no idea what it actually is.

Voice of Reason

Sammy Sosa was as dumb as a box of rocks, but he could hit a baseball realllllly far!!!!

Who cares what Rose’ IQ is?

Rose is one of the best players in the NBA.

He has won an MVP for Christ sake.

Get off of him.

mjhurdle

“Non BBall related, but he speaks like a teenager. That’s sad within itself and proof that he’s not the brightest guy.”

The way Rose speaks in a press conference is not very good proof of his overall intelligence.
To judge him that way is akin to me using your mutilation of logic in your first post to say that you aren’t very intelligent.

Blublud

The guy graduated high school with c average(wonder how much help he had with that) and couldn’t take his own test. There isn’t to much out there to suggest he is very smart, but yhere is a lot to suggest he’s not bright.

mjhurdle

1) many people perform poorly in high school for a variety of reasons. You once again illustrate your bias by assuming that his grades were bad solely due to intelligence level. There are plenty of other reasons, but you want to assume him to be a “dummy”. You further confirm your bias by also assuming that he had help just to get that ‘C’.
2 ‘couldn’t’ and ‘didn’t’ are two completely separate things. While we know that he didn’t take the test, there is no way anyone of us knows if he could have taken the test, and what his score is.
Again, i have no stake in this. I don’t follow the NBA and could care less what your opinion of him as a player is. But to personally attack someone’s intelligence for no other reason than some silly vendetta in the absence of any proof is pretty immature and petty. Though, in light of recent posts, maybe i should expect that.

TonyE

He’s a top 5 player in the NBA and youngest MVP ever. Next topic

Geo

Guy relax, he’s young . What is lebrons basketball iq? And how old was he when he won his first championship? How old was Jordan when he won his first? I think drose has a few years to spare relax.

DarthHater

“DRose is believed by loud-mouth jackasses on internet chat boards to have a regular IQ of between 75-80. ”

FTFY

Blublud

[Ed. – Just so much unacceptable crap in this post. Homophobic slurs, among other things, are not tolerated.]

mjhurdle

well, that escalated quickly in a very inappropriate way.

Blublud

Nah. Most people here are cool, and used to like Darth, but lately he has really shown himself to be a stupid motherfucker

DarthHater

I’m going to take the lead here. I was not calling you a loud-mouth jackass, I was sarcastically suggesting that you might look like one if you accept what they post on the internet. Could my post be read as calling you a jackass? Sure, that’s what makes it a smart aleck comment, which is nothing new for me, as you well know. So, I’m sorry I offended you so much, when I really only intended to offend you a small amount. 😛

MichiganGoat

And with that let’s let this end

Ron

If I had to google FTFY does that mean I don’t speak like a teenager?

DarthHater

It means you should be proud of yourself. 😉

Patrick W.

Congratulations on showing the world your ignorance, and providing proof that nothing you say should be taken. Not taken seriously, just not taken at all.

DarthHater

Blublud is believed to have his panties in a twist.

Blublud

Nah. Thats you. Instead of disagreeing with my opinion of an idividual, you feel the need to call me out my name. You do this to often. You comment escalated this.

MichiganGoat

Okay you two the bell has rang go to your corners, this back and forth is now tiresome.

jayrig5

Wow.

MichiganGoat

Well then I guess an edit will be coming with that homophobic remark… I expect more from you Blu

Blublud

Not a homophobic slur, just an accurate accessment of one individual. My brother is gay, and I love him very much. I’m far from homophobic.

Patrick W.

What would you do if somebody said that to your brother?

Blublud

My brother is to thick skinned to care. He is more secure then I will ever be. I would not make that comment to a gay person just because they were gay. It was directed at an individual, not a gay person.

BTW, my brother calls me punk all the time.

MichiganGoat

That particular F word is never acceptable and you now that, but let’s just end this NOW. It will get edited and let’s just leave this discussion alone.

Pat

What if you’re covering “Money for Nothing”?

Patrick W.

Only if your brother is Mark Knopfler.

DarthHater

Too bad your spelling isn’t as accurate as your “accessments.” You know,you really shouldn’t spend the entire day whining about somebody else’s lack of education, if you aren’t capable of demonstrating a little of it yourself.

Blublud

I have never claimed to be the best at spelling. I’m also having convo while drivong on the highway, through tje mountains on I-40 near Ashville.

MichiganGoat

Seriously stop with the back and forth… Just WALK AWAY

Internet Random

Reading the comments is so enriching.

mjhurdle

makes the last few minutes of work fly by!

http://www.frenchrocks.net Ian Afterbirth

Well, I thought you were a tool up to this point and now I realize I gave you far too much credit.

ruby2626

He was apparently smart enough to have someone else take his ACT test for him.

C. Steadman

you also said the league dislikes derrick rose, while Kevin Durant flew out to Chicago just to workout with him this offseason…

Teigh Cubs Teigh

My basketball IQ is so low that those are the only two words that I understood in that entire conversation.

mjhurdle

Someone just needs to nuke this thread.

caryatid62

Derrick Rose is ten times better at his job than anyone here is at theirs.

Internet Random

That depends on how you define your terms.

You might want to consider that plenty of us have actually shown up and done our jobs for the last year and a half.

mjhurdle

i agree with the show up part, but judging from the number of posts during the day, most of us don’t appear to be doing our jobs

Chad

It obviously depends on the return. If you can get a Bradley, Tallion, Sanchez, or a Wacha (before he became super rookie Wacha) type of prospect you make the trade. I would take stud position players too because you can flip them for TOR prospects. You’d love to get a top of the rotation guy, but if you somehow can pull Castellanos type of player then I think you do that. That guy could be a mainstay or a flip piece in another trade.

Would you guys trade Samardzija for Scherzer straight up and try to extend Scherzer instead?

YourResidentJag

That Scherzer thing isn’t happening. There’s lots of SP out there to obtain the question is how does the FO project these players. It would be nice to get an Archie Bradley type but the FO may have to settle, if one could call it that, for more of a CJ Edwards type with additional prospects for Shark. Think AJ Cole of the Nats, Ventura of the Royals, Butler of the Rockies, or Zach Lee of the Dodgers. Actually, an interesting and more speculative straight up trade would be: do you trade Shark straight up for Porcello?

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

Iagree. Samardzija presents quite a dilemma.

You won’t likely be able to move him this winter…lots of FA pitchers teams can justify (some way) to sign that can be 80-90% of Samardzija without the prospect pay, and (relatively) cheap salary. Many teams will sign guys on 1-2 year prove it deals, see what happens.

Scott Kazmir had better peripheral numbers than Samardzija in a rebound year. Durability concerns aside, teams would take the flier on Kazmir rather than give up 2 top prospects to land Jeff.

(Cubs should attempt a 2-3 year sign of Kazmir; incentives on top of a Scott Baker-like base.)

With Scherzer and Price likely up on the trade market too, Samardzija is not gonna be thought of as the ace option, first. And who isn’t gonna demand a top SP prospect (or two) back plus…a 3rd prospect?

As you said, “the FO may have to settle, if one could call it that, for more of a CJ Edwards type with additional prospects for Shark.”

And what team is gonna give you a potential TOR prospect?
Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Arizona are all in same mode of operation. Pittsburgh has no incentive for Samardzija services. Seattle, doesn’t need him with King Felix and Iwakuma and pitching prospects Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton. If we had a bat for Seattle (but we’d be keeping that bat?), they might. And Seattle would be ideal only if they expected to pass Texas, Oakland or LA anytime soon, which I wonder if that is possible…

Arizona, possible, but that conversation took place before, didn’t it? Arizona current payroll is pretty high (for them), with limited room to add to that. And they can’t beat LA just by adding Samardzija.

So all the pitching partners that we’d covet a TOR prospect are worse off by a trade, likely as not. So you either settle, or find value in other positions you need.

So, wait until June-July 2014 or 2015, once those injuries make teams desperate, if they are in it. We got 4 prospects for a rental in Garza with his track record. Healthy, Samardzija might land something based on the 2014 race.

Baseball too, it is getting smarter across the board.

YourResidentJag

I agree with you on your positions about the FA market and trade market and with respect to Shark this offseason. I just hope the 2nd half regression doesn’t bleed too much into next year. Also, once a prospect gets overexposed, you’d wonder whether or not a team like AZ would even consider trading Bradey? I’ve seen a lot of prospect talk this season involved with the debate of Bradley vs Bundy. High praise for one SP prospect alone.

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

Yep. Once teams know they got a keeper, you ain’t gonna trade them.

Here’s praying he knows he’s pitching for his FA contract….and that motivates, if the teams’ fortunes in 2014 do not.

Given some relationship, does San Diego have enough to entice?

Since they haven’t solved their Chase Headley deal, they too are in a bit of jam. Samardzija in PETCO would be a match for them. Headley hits like crap in SD. His away stats suggest.

I’ll take a flier that if the Yankees, Cubs and SD talked, they might have something to work out.

YourResidentJag

I’d like SD…but boy the injuries to their SP prospects. I like the Detroit scenario of Porcello and add James Russell and I think you could get additional prospects.

While it might seem an underpay for Samardzija, at least we’d have a young catcher and pitcher that have been in the majors just recently. Not high ceilings, but young enough to reach better potentials…

Assman22 related “near MLB ready” pitching earlier.

YourResidentJag

Possibly….but three way trades have a way of breaking down.

On The Farm

I agree its hard enough to find suitable partners for the three way, let alone hope it actually come to fruition.

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

I agree there too.

But I tried.

SD – Shark in SD would be a dominate home pitcher…and it was more of knowing the prior Cashner trade has been value both ways so far.

hutch

why would padres trade their top prospect and headley to get shark? that doesn’t make sense to me

Depends are you talking about Aaron Sanchez the ‘Chopped’ food judge? I wouldn’t mind the organization acquiring him, he may be able to help CJ Edwards with his weight issues.

YourResidentJag

But hey, if they got that guy, I’m guessing he could make a mean salsa. 😉

Jim

Plus I hear he has a mean tattoo guy

Rudy

Here’s my dream scenario: Sign Tanaka, Trade Shark for Bradley, Castro + for Price and Arieta + for Cargo. Some guys that could be included would be Schieholtz, Sweeney Barney, Valbuena, Rusin, Hendricks, Olt, Vilanueva(either) Vitters ect. Then we end up with Price, Tanaka, Bradley, Wood and Ejax. With a very young line up (Eventually) of: Alcantra, Cargo, Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, Sweeney/Lake, Castillo, Olt/Silva/Bogusevic/Szczur/Ha.

Eventually, hopefully the holes in OF sort themselves out with Almora and Soler or Olt(moving Bryant). Any other holes could be filled in in FA 2015 and 2016.

Probably far fetched but would be nice!

Voice of Reason

So, you want to trade for Price, who missed starts this year because of arm trouble.

Then, you want to trade for Carlos Gonzalez. Cargo has NEVER played in over 145 games in his career. In each of his seasons he has played in: 145 games, 127, 135 and 110. He always has something bothering him. AND, his numbers are way inflated in Colorado.

Price will require an extension of a minimum of $20 million dollars over a minimum of 5 years. Cargo will make $20 million dollars in the final year of his contract.

Why in the world do you want to take on those big contracts with their individual track records?

I’m glad you’re not calling the shots for the Cubs!

Jon

As I’ve said before, I’ll gladly take 145 games of Cargo over 162 games of a Sweeney/Lake/Boscovich platoon.

Voice of Reason

Thank you, Captain Obvious!

Jon

If you agree, then why are you so hung up on Cargo only playing 145 games a year? You seem to ignore that fact that in those games he does play, he is insanely effective.

If we got him for Arrieta+ (I’m assuming + is a lesser prospect) you take that deal running if you are the Cubs. That means you essentially got Cargo for Scott Feldman.

Voice of Reason

You do understand that his splits are TERRIBLE? And, in the games he plays well, he does so in the lite air of Colorado.

Obviously Cargo is better than the group you mentioned. BUT, you have to put a price tag on everything and there are healthier options with better numbers who will be less expensive than the guy who misses games every year and plays in Colorado.

Stay away from Cargo and Price.

Let’s spend our money wisely! Every step is important when we add big money type players to go with our young kids.

Drew7

“AND, his numbers are way inflated in Colorado.”

If that concerns you, take a look at his wRC+ – which adjusts for league and park-factors – since ’10:

144
126
121
149

On The Farm

Look at his H/A wRC+ 141 vs. 107. That still says something to me.

Drew7

I can’t find league-wide numbers for wRC+, but teams posted a .725 OPS at home this year vs. a .704 on the road.

In general, players (understandably so) hit better at home.

Jon

That’s what we call, fantasy land.

Voice of Reason

I wouldn’t trade a bag of balls for Price. Once I get him then I have to give him a monster extension just to keep him around!

And, Cargo??? Really?

Rudy

Yes Cargo, as speculated by Cubs Den and others he could be made available at a discount, prospect wise due to his contract. How many 28 yr old left handed power bats, arguably(4/5-tool) players are you gonna get in FA for 4 years @63.5 mil? And once Almora is up you move him and his bat still plays well. You’d be getting 4 prime years of Cargo without having to overpay a similar player for his past prime years(think Fielder contract).

Rudy

That’s your opinion on Price. I’d be willing to bet a lot of people would do that trade and not blink. I’m not so sure the Rays would though. If you dont like Price insert Scherzer or keep Shark and re-sign on his terms or whoever but eventually you are going to have to pay an ace if you want to keep one.

Voice of Reason

I love Scherzer! I’d love to have him on the Cubs.

I just can’t justify giving up anything for Price… a guy who missed multiple starts this year with ARM TROUBLE!!

And, then you have to sign him to a BIG EXTENSION!! There is noooo way I’m touching Price!

Jono

it’s unlikely that the Tigers trade Scherzer next year, right? They’ll probably be in the playoff hunt. I assume they’ll hold on to him to make a push for the world series rather than trade him

Jono

Now I’m taking a step back an wondering if it really would be better to go after him as a free agent or as a trade. My first thought was as a fee agent. I’m not so sure upon further consideration

On The Farm

They will probably look to shop him this offseason since his value is sky high right now and he is nearing free agency. With Verlander, Sanchez, Fister, and Porcello they have a pretty strong rotation. If you can trade him for a haul to restock that farm system it could be a really good deal for the Tigers.

Chad

There has been mention that since he is in the last year of his deal and not interested in signing an extension they are interested in trading him.

Problem is what confidence does that give to your fan base going into the season? Sorry, we don’t believe that Scherzer, a major piece who got us deep into the playoffs, is worth keeping. So, we’re rebuilding…well sort of except for that Verlander extension and Cabrera…and Hunter….and oh yeah…Fielder’s contract.

Mike F

Gross exaggeration. Price is certainly work more than a bag of balls. i too am worried about his arm, but in a deal for Castro and say Vogelbach, I would make that deal. I don’t like the idea of paying him 150M but when you net in Castro, it’s no worse a gamble than Tanaka. And frankly, yes I do want to move Castro for either a bat or a pitching prospect, not necessarily Price. But Price is no doubt worth more than a bag of balls.

FullCountTommy

While we’re at it, why don’t we trade Sweeney for Trout, Rusin for Kershaw, and Lake for Harper….Come on man, be realistic

Rudy

The only one that might be unrealistic is the Castro for Price yet a lot Cubs fans are balking at it. The other two have at least been been thrown out there by writers/experts or tentatively rumored in some respect.

Rudy

Also I did say “dream” scenario.

FullCountTommy

Arrietta for Cargo?? A guy who will probably end up in the bullpen for a top 5 outfielder in all of baseball is realistic??

Voice of Reason

I can think of 5 outfielders off the top of my head that I would take ahead of the oft injured Cargo!

FullCountTommy

I would take Trout, McCutchen, maybe Harper…That’s it

Voice of Reason

You do realize that he misses 21% of games over the course of a year?

That’s from 2010 till 2013.

I just won’t take on that type of a player. I don’t want that type of financial obligation to a player like that.

Here is the question:

Why is Colorado looking to dump this great outfielder for a reported discount?

FullCountTommy

And put up MVP quality numbers while missing those games

Voice of Reason

Again, here is the question:

Why would Colorado want to trade this great outfielder who should be in his prime at his age?

And, reports are they will trade him at a discount?

Do you see the red flags here?

FullCountTommy

How about the fact that he has a long term, not cheap contract and they’re in a full rebuild. I’m not saying that there aren’t injury concerns with Cargo, but I am saying that 80% of Cargo is better than 95% of the players out there

Voice of Reason

Unless the Rockies are willing to eat some of that paper and take less of a prospect/prospects in return there is no way that the front office is taking on Carlos Gonzalez. I’m certain that the Rockies ain’t eating any paper!

Dude, over the course of his career he has missed 21% of games. That’s really bad!!

There is better out there.

FullCountTommy

I think we got lost in translation somewhere. I’m not saying I think the Cubs should trade for him, I just think it would take A LOT more than Arrietta plus a mid-level prospect

Edwin

Who? And how much would they cost?

Rudy

Well if you ask some of these guys, he is a barely above avg, injury prone OF past his prime.

Yes I think it’s a steal, regardless of that it has been mentioned many times by people here and Cubs Den. Something about the Rockies being cheap and really liking Arrieta. Also, I thew a + in there… call it schierholtz and a top 10-15 spec.

Professor Snarks

Dummy….you can’t trade Lake for Harper……Lake is getting us Stanton.

Voice of Reason

First of all, define “4 prime years for Cargo” since he has NEVER played over 145 games in a season.

Second, of course Colorado will give him away at a discount. They just want his contract to go bye bye.

Do you see any red flags here?

Rudy

Ages 28 through 32 seasons at 15 mil for an all star OF. Compare that to Hamilton deal where he got 24.6 mil per year for ages 32-36 seasons. Seems Like the Cargo deal is a bargain… and there are no relapse/character worries ect.

On The Farm

“Seems Like the Cargo deal is a bargain… and there are no relapse/character worries ect.”

One thing to remember: Home/Away splits can be deceiving for Rockies’ players, since every other player in the NL gets to inflate their “Away” numbers by playing in Coors (not to mention having to play away games in LA, SD, and AZ). Thus, most every player of theirs will have more drastic splits when compared to the rest of the league.

Kyle

That’s true. And batters seem to adjust, too. For the most part, hitters leaving Coors have done much better than their away splits would suggest.

On The Farm

“Rockies’ players, since every other player in the NL gets to inflate their “Away” numbers by playing in Coors”

Actually its more deceiving to say every other player gets the benefit of playing at Coors in their Away splits. The Cubs played what, 3 games in Colorado this season, or roughly 78 less than CarGo (if he actually played a full season that is). So to say everyone gets the benefit is misleading because unless you are in Colorado’s division, you play at their park 3-6 games a year. Big Whoop. I understand hitters are going to have better home/away splits, because they are more familar with their park. Just look at how big that difference is though, .150 alone in Slugging, 30 wRC+. That’s insane. He literally is a different player at home. Also have you seen his HR splits? 77 vs 48. Carlos Gonzalez is a player that takes advantage of his home ball park.

Edwin

Justin Upton was a player who had a similar home away split, and Dave Cameron wrote an article about it.

Some of the same principals apply to Gonzalez. Just looking at home/away splits doesn’t always tell the whole story. Being a LH hitter, I think Gonzalez would put up some nice numbers in Wrigley.

davidalanu

And as a rule, don’t most players hit better in their home park than when they’re traveling?

DarthHater

For questions like this, I usually look to a normalized metric like Baseball Prospectus’s “True Average” (see below).

For players with at least 400 PAs in 2013, Cargo ranked 5th in OPS (a non-normalized metric), but ranked 24th in TAv. That suggests that, like all Rockies sluggers, he is getting a statistical boost from playing in Colorado. But he’s still a really good hitter.

From Baseball Prospectus Glossary:

True Average (TAv) is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. Adjustments are made for park and league quality, as such the league-average mark is constant at .260.
True Average incorporates aspects that other linear weights-based metrics ignore. Reaching base on an error andsituational hitting are included; meanwhile, strikeouts and bunts are treated as slightly more and less damaging outs than normal. The baseline for an average player is not meant to portray what a typical player has done, but rather what a typical player would do if given similar opportunities. That means adjustments made for parks and league quality. True Average’s adjustments go beyond applying a blanket modifier-players who play more home games than road games will see that reflected in their adjustments. Unlike its predecessor, Equivalent Average, True Average does not consider baserunning or basestealing.

jt

discounting CarGo’s 2013 H/A splits
the basis for away splits are: obp 0.324, slg 0.450 => 0.774 OPS away
assume Kyle’s home adjustment to be true and Drew7’s skew of stats by not have Coors in away box scores but having those of LA, SD and Az.
The expectation then becomes an 0.800 OPS guy who can play defense who wont hit regression for at least 3 and maybe 4 years.
*
CarGo hit a lot more FB’s last year and approached the same SLG he earned in 2010. He was actually better on the road than at home in 2013.

Voice of Reason

You can compare ANYONE to Hamilton and that player will look like a bargain! lmao

Blackhawks1963

I think many of you have hot stove fever, which is great and all. But lets face it…some of you are standing too close to the smoke. I DON’T see the Cubs making major splashes this offseason, with exception of a serious run at Tanaka and McCann. The thing is though I don’t see Tanaka coming to the Cubs regardless…the Yankees are backed into the sort of corner where they will outbid the world for the rights to Tanaka…which I’m fine with. McCann? My hunch is he ends up playing for the Yankees as well. I’d love to have McCann, but I’m thinking he will have multiple serious teams interested in his services.

Talk of David Price is silly….there is no way TheoJed are going to trade away 3 blue chip prospects or so to aquire the high mileage Price, plus be faced with the issue of having to sign him to a new contract that likely hovers around $150 M.

Talk of Carlos Gonzalez is silly…we have either Bryant or Baez likely to figure into the Cub outfield picture very soon. And Soler and Almora waiting in the wings from there. Why give up a ton to acquire CarGo when the interest in his services will be very strong and Colorado knows it?!? I just don’t see it.

So….I see TheoJed making a push for Tanaka and McCann, but losing out. Beyond that I see them adding a bullpen piece or two and another starting pitcher from the bargain bin. Maybe a return of Maholm?!? I also see them in the market for a veteran infielder to plug the gap until their is further clarity on Olt, Baez, Bryant, Alcantara and Castro in that infield.

Voice of Reason

I’m totally with you, Blackhawk!

David Price and Cargo will not happen and it is just silly to discuss the possibilities!

They’ll make a push for Tanaka, but a team like the Yankees or Mets or Angels might see more of a pressing need for his services and outbid the Lovable Losers.

And McCann? Let’s save our pennies!

Patrick W.

Well, there is serious talk of changing the posting system starting this year. The top three bidding teams will get to negotiate with the player for a contract. That would likely hurt the Yankees, as they would be willing to up the price of a non-luxury tax hit bid vs. a high salary.

If those changes indeed happen, I’d suspect the lowest winning bid will be about $30-$35M and the contract to come in around 6/80M. If the changes don’t happen then the bid will likely be $50M and the contract 6/$70.

Randy

well Black hawk I am sure because you say its so it must be so..

Blackhawks1963

I guess you didn’t get the memo?!? This is a MESSAGE BOARD…an anonymous one at that…populated by people who are presumably fans of baseball and the Cubs. By definion therefore, literally EVERYTHING posted here is either link to an actual published report / article OR A FRIGGIN OPINION ON THE PART OF THE POSTER !!! If you can’t wrap your brain around that, then I guess your left with the option of ignoring my statements of opinion and prediction.

Crikey.

mjhurdle

wow, talk about a defensive reply…

TWC

No kidding. This kid starts his comment about how everyone else is wrong, gets rebuffed, and explodes into all-caps-and-multiple-exclamation-points-land about how it’s all just, like, your opinions, man.

mjhurdle

he probably just didn’t get the memo. Someone should forward that to him…

TWC

Sorry, man. My fax machine is down.

hansman

Send it through your beeper.

TWC

That sounds painful.

hansman

It is. *sad face*

davidalanu

Is this place beeper-friendly?

DarthHater

Careful, there, or you’re liable to hyper-hyphenate. 😛

TWC

Duly noted. ::tips hat::

On The Farm

So he can make predictions about trades, and free agency, but last month when people were making speculations about manager hires he threw at everyone needs to use “facts”, when the process was still in its early stages. Weird.

On The Farm

I guess it wasn’t a month, but 3 weeks ago.

DarthHater

Get your facts straight, man!

MichiganGoat

Watch out otherwise Farm will all cap you for disagreeing with him.

hansman

Thank God I wasn’t the only one to notice that.

Randy

exactly. Everyone wrong and he is right. I think I will just ignore ignorance.

MichiganGoat

Geez I guess trying to debate you is pointless because that will only make you huff and puff… okay so from here on out only reply if we agree otherwise stay silent, got it.

jt

“Beyond that I see them adding a bullpen piece or two and another starting pitcher from the bargain bin”
–Blackhawks1963
I agree with much of what you say. However, you seem to discount the trade market. I think there will be opportunities there.

Mike F

So, the plan is to lose another 100 games and hire someone like AJ Hinch with a reputation as a lightweight and sit back and see what the media and fans say. You’re a bright guy, but we have to be able to tell time. Chicago is a major market, Theo wasn’t hired to continue the legacy of losing. I understand Rome wasn’t build overnight, but when you start firing manages, attendance falls no matter how they spin it, and the media starts to turn against you added with the flowing rhetoric the Cubs are coming from Theo, I think you are missing the smoke signals. Or they can hire someone who has a reputation for losing, fiddle as the place goes ablaze and the trust the barbarians to be civil, you make the call.

Edwin

I think Rick Porcello would be a nice trade target. He’s very underrated by ERA, he’s young, he seems fairly durable, and he’s still somewhat cheap.

Voice of Reason

Is he like a third cousin or something?

Out of all possible pitchers in the major leagues, who comes on this website and mentions that the Cubs should trade for Rick Porcello?

On The Farm

A lot of people want to trade for Rick Porcello, it is an oft mentioned thing actually. People think he could be a really good pitcher if he moved out of Detroit’s crappy infield defense, to a respectable defense.

Blackhawks1963

The problem is the Tigers value Porcello and would doubtful trade him unless they got something quite attractive in return. What do we have that they would covet?!? I suppose you could trade Jeff Russell and a quality prospect to get Porcello?!? I’m not sure I’d be wild about that…Porcello is a Doctor Jekyll and Mr. Hyde on the mound.

Edwin

Out of all possible pitchers who qualify over the past two seasons, Porcello has one of the largest difference between his FIP- and ERA-. He’s also young, durable, and has decent velocity. Plus, his numbers ticked up recently.

If the Cubs are looking to trade for undervalued players, Porcello seems like a player who could be pretty undervalued.

Voice of Reason

I still don’t get it? Are the Tigers actively shopping this future J.R. Richard?

DarthHater

They were back in March.

On The Farm

I am not sure how the rumor got started, but I would assume part of the reason it was floating around as long as it did is because they had Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister so they could afford to shop their 3rd/4th best SP if they can net a huge haul. Now that Scherzer is nearing the end of his contract, and given he is a better commodity, I would imagine he will be their main trade chip.

Edwin

Who knows. Were the Reds shopping Travis Wood when the Cubs made that deal? I was simply listing a player I hope the Cubs inquire about at the winter meetings. Maybe Detroit thinks the same way I do, and have no intention of letting go of him.

Also, I don’t think Porcello is some future ace, just that he has a chance to pitch much better going forward than his current ERA indicates.

YourResidentJag

Actually, he’s Edwin’s second cousin. He’s just not that into telling you.

FullCountTommy

I like it, depending on price obviously. Porcello is a solid 3-4 and an innings eater who would slot nicely into the Cubs rotation

Voice of Reason

Everything depends on price.

It’s just strange that Porcello is brought up out of the blue?

FullCountTommy

I’ve actually heard Porcello’s name brought up quite a bit over the past couple months, and even as far back as July

On The Farm

Porcello’s name as a trade target is only second to Price over the past year.

SenorGato

Porcello to the Cubs should totally happen THO. Fits like something and stuff.

My guess is Shark simply wants to pitch on a better team, and we are not going to be that much better for him next year. Unless we make some FA acquisitions, then I think he would sign an extension.

FastBall

I would trade Shark this winter. Get as many prospects as possible in an early trade this offseason and use what you need to and get Price from TB. I would line up what TB is looking for and get that for Shark or most of it. Pitcher Flippin Wars could be a new Reality Show starring Theo and Jed. I haven’t thought much of Shark anyway. He is a thrower and that’s why he is what he is. I don’t wait around for 2 more years to put that knowledge in to use. Hey he is a hard thrower but he gets bombed cuz he can’t pitch to good hitters. Pitching means you got skills at getting guys to hit your not so good belt high fastball at 95 mph. Cuz anybody can turn those around except Barney.

Senor Cub

Fastball – I am with you. Continue to stock up the farm for the big push next year. Shark does not make the Cubs better.

TSB

All year and more lately, people post that Rizzo, Castro and now Shark are terrible, and in Shark’s case, is undisciplined and no better than a 4-5 starter. However when discussing a trade, all of a sudden other teams are supposed to give up proven big leaguers and/or top prospects for shark. Come on, haven’t you heard the saying “Don’t say I’m ugly all year and then expect an invite to the Prom?”

MichiganGoat

Well said, my favorite is that Arrieta could be the headliner in a CarGo trade. We really undervalue the players and overvalue players worth in a trade.

YourResidentJag

Until the Rockies add Baez, then everyone will be stepping away from any thoughts of a CarGo trade.

YourResidentJag

Oh, and also his contract is HEAVILY BACKLOADED so that by the end, 2017, you’d be paying a guy (who only played in 110 games and has never played in more than 145 games in a season) $20 mil. I’d rather have Granderson.

JMHO I’d take him to arbitration for 2 years and then tag him where we get a draft pick. Of course if he ever starts pitching like a TOR guy then we sign him longterm, in 2 years Cubs should be sitting on a wad of cash if things go well.

Aaron

A team losing a Type A free agent received two Draft picks — one from the signing team and one in a compensatory “sandwich” round. A team losing a Type B free agent gained only a sandwich pick, with the signing team not losing a selection.

Would Shark be a Type A or Type B free agent after the 2015 season?

Josh T

Samardzija has no premise for deserving frontline starter money. Yes he gets a lot of K’s but he hasn’t got the job done. Not even a sub 3.50 ERA. Era I get is a little over rated stat but his FIP and xFIP are impressive either. Yes he throws hard but he leans on his a way too much, he tries to overthrow and that’s what gets him in trouble, A LOT!

Turn Two

Anyone ever been suspended from this site before?

MichiganGoat

Blocked yes, warned yes, suspended for x amount of time I don’t think so unless a block isn’t permanent.

Ron

Who was that, I can’t remember or should they remain nameless?

MichiganGoat

Meh that’s old news

Bric

Goat that’s a good pun whether intentional or not.

MichiganGoat

Oh it’s very deliberate… glad you got it

Ron

Ha, It took awhile but i got it.

DocPeterWimsey

I was, but I won on the appeal: after all, we robots have lots of chemicals and very little urine in our urine tests.

Shark’s advance sabremetrics suggest he’s much better than his 4.34 average this year. Good to hear. That means he’s a much more advanced sucky ass middle of the road 4.34 pitcher than his peers. That should be good for a new 5 year 100 mil extension. Is Grabow his agent by chance? When did we become the Pirates and they became us? Dump his upcoming headache to the first taker.

Dustin S

Phllips must have edged out Barney for the Gold Glove with his fine personality. He’s quite the people person.

mjhurdle

Barney should Tweet out that he was cheated and the award is a joke.

mjhurdle

David Kaplan ‏@thekapman 1m
Acta seems to be out of running. Brad Ausmus seems to be rising. People in Cubs organization are very high on Ausmus. Hope Theo and Jed are.

MichiganGoat

I still wonder why people are high on Ausmus, is it the catcher thing? He’s never coached in any capacity, after the WS we will know more about Lovullo who I think might be their top choice if he’s interested.

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

Diamond in the rough? Cheap get? Smarts?
Still looks like he could play? (We do need a backup catcher…) 😉

ssckelley

So if the Cubs trade Samardzija which prospects will the Cubs get from the Rangers this time?

Die hard

Re-sign Garza first and then sign Shark and if money left over sign the latest Japanese phenom and then give Coleman a shot at closer

I could go either way on Shark. Not worth what he thinks he’s worth, but I do think he has potential to get better over the next few years. I know he’s a band-aid, but what if we sign Josh Johnson as a “flier” type and sign Tanaka. If you trade for Price (I trust FO not to sell the farm) now your SP’s look like:

1. Price
2. Tanaka
3. T Wood
4. Shark
5. Josh Johnson/Ejax

*Im a huge fan of CarGo, but unless we get him for cheap (which won’t happen), then we wait for position players to start arriving in ’14. Never know, but it’s becoming more likely we’ll see Baez/Bryant in ’14….

Jason P

If you trust the FO not to sell the farm for Price, then you pretty much trust the FO not to get Price. Negotiations with Tampa would start with them asking for 2 of the big 4, and there would have to be significant negotiation to get it down to 1. But that 1 would probably have to be Baez or no deal. Then probably 2 or so of our next 8ish best prospects after the big 4 would have to go along with maybe a Jae Hoon Ha and a strong bullpen arm like Strop.

Tampa got at least that and probably more for James Shields with Myers, a clear top-5 prospect in the game at the time, and Ordiozzi, a consensus top-100 prospect. Granted the Royals were desperate, but there usually is at least 1 desperate team, And Price is younger and better than Shields.

That would be a lot to give up for a guy already in the middle of his prime who’s going to want something in the realm of Kershaw’s extension and who already has an injury history and lost a few ticks of his fastball last year.

Cubs should shop Shark aggressively this year. We want him on Edwin Jackson $$ and he’ll probably get close to Lincecum money. And any trade scenario will include pitching prospect(s). It is the cubs way…

TOOT

For me it’s simple. Get rid of the so called “Shark”. Has not lived up to the hype.

Edwin

Getting rid of him is fine, but then who do you replace him with?

hansman

Noone, then we have something else to bitch about.

Jason P

Brandon Phillips won the gold glove award despite the fact that he shouldn’t have even been a finalist. It’s really obnoxious how bad managers are at evaluating fielding talent on teams that aren’t theirs. I mean, I get that managers don’t want to sit down and analyze the advanced metrics after just getting through a grueling 162-game season (for some, more than 162 games), but baseball needs new voters if 7 of the winners (5 non-pitchers) are going to get the award with DRS’s of 10 or lower.

Chase S.

I could go either way on Shark but for those making the age argument:

Would it suffice it to say that his pitching “age” if you will, or total innings has more to do with how long he has than is actual age? By that I mean he’s been in the pen most of his career through the minors. He’s pitched just over 550 innings in 6 seasons in the system and majors, almost half of those coming this season. I feel like his arm, compared to a David Price, who’s been in the system/league 2 years less than Shark but has almost double the amount of innings pitched, is less “aged.” Not the best comparison, but the general idea is there.

Chase S.

Oh, and with that argument I meant to say someone like Price, who’s comparable in age but has more innings, has already shown signs of a decline in velocity where as Samardzija has really only two full seasons of big league experience.

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/26016289
Here’s a quote on pushing ahead with a competitive 2014 team:
“Well, you can’t keep pushing the future away. At some point you have to embrace it and push the start button. The idea that you can get a team of players who are all the same age or about the same age is a chimera, for the most part, and anyway if you do, that’s Cleveland in 2007. So if it’s me, I don’t trade Zack Greinke unless I can get two Zack Greinke’s in return.”
~Bill James

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