First – to all who have read, comments, subscribed or contacted me from this blog over the last four years – Thank you very much.

You’ll notice that I haven’t posted any new articles here since July, 2010. The reason for that is that I have transitioned out of the Real Estate business to pursue my other business on a full-time basis. Since this blog still has more than 1500 visits per month I am leaving it intact. The 107 articles are there for you to view at your convenience.

There’s very little debate over the fact that this is a “Buyer’s” Market” right now. The thing is that this time around it’s a little different than in past market cycles. There are plenty of homes to choose from, prices are low (still declining in many areas) and interest are as ever.

By all rights, there should be lots and lots of people buying houses right now. There aren’t! There are buyers and they are buying houses but not at the pace that the market conditions should justify.

Why not?

Here’s a short video that may be helpful in understanding part of the reason.

I recently received the following doc from William Raveis Mortgage Company* regarding the new guidelines that went into effect on 6/1/20.

As you’ll see there are some new pieces of documentation that will be required for all FNMA loans. These are being adopted by Secondary Market Investors.

This does not necessarily mean that it will be harder to get through the mortgage process. It does mean that you should be very vigilant in discussing ALL aspects of getting your loan with your lender. Being prepared lessens the chances of last-minute surprises.

First to start with a disclaimer: Even if the opinions and predictions in this article are 100% accurate – it does NOT mean you can’t buy or sell a home. It just means you have to work with a Realtor who is staying on top of the dynamics in the market place. It’s always been my feeling, in all walks of life, that most bad outcomes are the results of “flying blind”.

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We all keep waiting for the market to hit bottom and then rebound. That may not happen for a while – a long while according to an article from Amy Hoaks of Market Watch.

Most of the theory and forecasting in this article come from a presentation that Stan Humphries, Chief Economist from Zillow.com gave to the National Association of Realtor Estate Editors (an 80 year old organization of Real Estate Journalists) in Austin Texas earlier this month.

SUPPLY ‘N DEMAND

The gist of the forecast is, always, about inventory. Remember the Real Estate Market runs on the very basics of Business 101 – Supply And Demand. When inventory is down, prices go up and vice versa.

There is much data to support that inventory is going to continue to go up dramatically over the next 18 – 24 months. Humphries proejcts than even light of the slight up-tick in the national median home sale price – there are two large sources of inventory that likely will hit the streets soon.

SHADOW INVENTORY

The first is “shadow inventory”. These are homes that banks are currently holding but have not yet put on the active market. In addition there are a lot of homeowners who have not yet been foreclosed upon but likely will be. They are way behind on payments, or they are trying to handle a loan modification, which is still difficult for them to make payments. There doesn’t seem to be an accurate number for this but the consensus is that it’s a big one.

SIDELINED SELLERS

According to Humprhies the other large group – which he estimate to be as many as 5 million homes – are people who have been putting off selling their homes for the last couple of years as they have waited for the market. Due the plethora of “signs” that the economy is improving slowly, many of these homeowners will put their houses on the market because they really need to move, for whatever reason.

No one really knows what’s going to happen but I think it’s important to stay as informed as possible so you can make contingency plans to handle whatever is coming.

So let me qualify my opening about why everyone should not be jumping on the bandwagon and grabbing up some of the low-priced inventory with the low-interest rates.

It goes back to something that has been mercilessly pounded into our collective consciousness over the last 50 years.

REAL ESTATE IS A GREAT INVESTMENT!!!!

For many years, this was true. In fact if you search through my blog archives you’ll find that I have taken my turn at chanting the mantra. If I were a politician, I might be called a flip flopper.

Right now – it’s NOT a great investment. Sure we’d all love to silently hope that the RE Market is going to “cycle back to normalcy” tomorrow – or next month, or next year. Another Cowelism – “If I’m being honest..” there really aren’t any indicators that home prices are going to “bounce back” anytime soon.

Of course no one really knows exactly what the future brings and I’m by no means an economist but I continually read just about everything that’s out there on this subject and nothing has convinced me that you can buy a house now and watch your investment grow.

So, if that’s the case, you might ask, why did I just spend several hundred dollars and renew my Realtor’s License?

Fact is, there are people who should and will be buying homes and with the market as complex and dynamic as it is right now, those people need a guide like me who knows the ins and the outs so they can make it all the way from their current home to the next as gracefully and smoothly as possible.

So who is it that should be buying?

Glad you asked.

There is only one valid reason to be buying a home right now – if you are looking for a new place to live and plan on staying there for some time. For those people it’s a great time to buy for all the reasons above (low price, low interest tons of inventory).

So what I’m suggesting is this: Be honest with yourself. If you need a new place to live in Connecticut – give me shout and I WILL help you find it. If you are thinking that you should buy a house because conventional wisdom has been drilled and drilled that it’s a good investment, you may want consider buying gold.

It IS a Buyer’s Market. That merely means that there are more sellers than there are buyer’s – it’s just supply and demand. It doesn’t mean that everyone should be buying just to buy. If you need a house, you can get a great value – a REALLY great value – but think about the house as place to live, not as a way to make money.

Right now in Northern Fairfield County, CT there are more than 2000 Single Family Homes and Condominiums listed for sale. They range in price from the low $100,000’s to more than $8,000,000. So there are a lot of options. If you have a valid reason to purchase one, I’d be excited and delighted to help you sort it all out.

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Rick Schwartz, REALTOR

Homes for sale in Danbury, Bethel, Brookfield, Newtown, New Fairfield, New Milford, Ridgefield and Redding CT.

RealtyTrac – a leading provider of tracking data on Foreclosure Activity, used by many private and public sector organizations to help evaluate foreclosure trends, reported late last week on a national level foreclosure activity dropped 9% in April.

Sounds like good news right?

Well – hold 0n just one minute there, Bucko. There may, indeed, be more to the story.

What if there were lots and lots of homeowners, who can’t afford their payments have realized that the banks are taking a long time to take action against them?

What if some of those homeowners just stopped making their payments and are staying in their homes, making no payments for up to a year or more?

So how does that affect owners that are operating outside of this part of the market. You know, people who have equity in their house and would like to sell.

While no one knows for sure when those foreclosures are going to hit the market – or if they are in your town, your neighborhood, one thing is for sure. If they do, it will affect the value of your home in a negative way.

Again – every situation is different and you have to work with your Realtor to determine the best course of action for you. Having said that, if you are interested in selling, come up with marketing plan and a price point that will move your house quickly. The idea of “Trying a high price” for a while – may have passed.

If you have a need to move for one reason of another, such as wanting more space, less traffic, nearer to work or school – just get it done. Even though the economy shows signs of getting better, the decline in housing prices may not be over – not for quite a while.

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Rick Schwartz, REALTOR

Homes for sale in Danbury, Bethel, Brookfield, Newtown, New Fairfield, New Milford, Ridgefield and Redding CT.