AFTER
the Christmas and New Year fiesta, welcome to the next 90 days, aperiod
Zimbabwe will, once again, have a chance to choose the future.

A very
dangerous time as well.

Anarchy, political violence, mass psychological
terror - on a scale neverseen before - will hit us hard, separating rural
and urban areas.In the past week alone, five innocent people died in
political violence.

Harare's mayoral and municipal elections, as ordered
by the Supreme Court inDecember, will kick off the do-or-die presidential
poll.

While it is easy to predict the outcome of Harare elections, many
residentssay they are worried about a potential backlash from a Zanu PF loss
in thecity.

Such a loss, at a time when the presidential election is
a few days away,has a serious psychological effect on candidates and their
voters.

It will swing campaign trails.

The municipal election is a
major irritant to Zanu PF.It is highly likely that President Mugabe will
postpone the implementationof the Supreme Court order to some time after
March.

From the June 2001 parliamentary election results, Zanu PF and the
MDC arerunning neck-and-neck.

That leaves many wondering about what
Zimbabwe will look like in April, witheither Mugabe or Morgan Tsvangirai at
State House.

Whoever loses has to wait until 2008 for another
chance.

Mugabe is under pressure at home and away.

Pressure from
the Commonwealth, from the Democratic Republic of Congo,United States
sanctions and the European Union.

Southern African Development Community
(Sadc) heads of state meet in anemergency summit in Blantyre soon to debate
a report from the MinisterialAction Group that was here two weeks
ago.

"The Zimbabwean ministers are now accepting that the situation is
beyondtheir control and that they need help," according to South Africa's
LabourMinister Membathisi Mdladlana, who is part of the report drafting
team.

The Sadc summit will be followed by the Commonwealth meeting in
Brisbane andstinging debates in the European parliament, buoyed by the US
sanctions Act.

At home, the scarcity economy and food security will drive
many to debatethe nation's politics, as individuals struggle to defend
themselves fromdomestic tension and stress.

Shortages of fuel, soft
drinks, cooking oil, maize and other basics are nowbeginning to
bite.

These issues will expose ordinary voters to irascible behaviour
from Mugabeand Zanu PF.

They will try to deflect their anger and
frustration from the internationalsmear.

That will open the way for
senseless violence.

Zimbabweans seem to be failing to put in place firm
mechanisms to deal withthis scourge.

Human rights monitors said
between January and October, 27 633 people wereforcibly displaced by
violence.

The majority of the perpetrators are known Zanu PF supporters,
war veteransand the police.

They started violence as a means of
gaining and protecting their politicalsupport in February 2000.

That
approach exposed the party's weakness and eroded the legitimacy of
theparty's June victory in 37 constituencies.

Since February 2000,
the public has lost faith in the police because oftheir failure to act
against violence and anarchy countrywide.

Desperate villagers and poor,
unemployed youths, after falling victim tomarauding bands of political
bandits, hobble into private newspaper officesto tell their own
stories.

Many don't bother reporting to the police. The feeling is that
it is wasteof time to do so.

The conduct of the police makes the
entire force unfit and unsuitable tomaintain law and order in the dangerous
period leading to March.

In fact, the force, through its inept and clumsy
behaviour in the past twoyears, has contributed significantly to the massive
lawlessness beingexperienced countrywide.

In the Sadc region,
Zimbabwe has the highest cases of election-relatedviolence, partly caused by
the government's reluctance to initiate anddevelop a code of conduct for
political parties.

A code brings order and self-regulation in political
campaign. It helps acountry to avoid unnecessary injury, destruction of
property and loss oflife.

Such documents spell out methods of
handling disputes, regulate media accessfor political parties, campaign
language and general behaviour at politicalrallies.

If the parties
are unwilling to volunteer and put such a safety valve inplace, it then
becomes the duty of either parliament or the government toimpose a code in
the spirit and sovereign duty of avoiding chaos
duringelections.

Parties come and go, so do their leaders.

But
voters, the nation and visitors must remain protected from hooligans,paid
thugs and overzealous party zealots.

Listen to Endy Mhlanga,
secretary-general of a dangerous faction of the warveterans'
association:"We are saying the MDC must not address any rallies in the rural
areas . . .we are going to do what we used to do during the liberation
struggle whenrural areas were prohibited zones for the enemy.

"We
also know that some of the people from the towns are visiting theirfolks in
the rural areas."Let them be warned that we will be on the look-out for them
and will bemonitoring them."

If the police were still interested in
Zimbabwe, Mhlanga should have beenarrested for such threatening
language.

He was basically inciting any rogue elements in the village,
bruised by alost liberation war glory, to turn against any person visiting
their parentsand relatives in the rural areas.

Their crime: living in
an urban area.

Asked for comment on Mhlanga's serious threats, Nathan
Shamuyarira, the ZanuPF secretary for Information, said: "They are part of
us and it is part ofour campaign strategy."

What kind of society are
they trying to build?

Between 1998 and the period just before the
ill-fated referendum last year,several multi-party discussions were held
with a view to putting in place acode of conduct.

The meetings which
involved the government and civil society were organisedand funded by the
National Democratic Institute for International Affairs(NDI).

Dumiso
Dabengwa, then Minister of Home Affairs, and Archbishop PeterHatendi,
representing the Electoral Supervisory Commission, were party tosuch efforts
on the realisation that Zimbabwe was mature enough to allow itscitizens to
choose their future in peace.

A draft was worked
out.

Unfortunately, the draft constitution was rejected by the majority,
settingin motion a wave of panic and confusion in Zanu PF, a key player in
theviolence game.

At the time, Mugabe could not be expected to shake
hands with Tsvangirai andMargaret Dongo after signing that well-intentioned
document.

The NDI later sent a team to observe the June 2000 poll. It
produced anunfavourable report. That sealed the fate of the
project.

A code, acceptable to all, is still a necessity.

Without
it, weak parties in power can corrupt the police to condone violenceagainst
their own people - and service charter.

THE
police force has received hefty salary increases of over 100 percent,seen by
observers as Zanu PF's attempt to buy the loyalty of the policeahead of the
presidential election in March.

Sources within the Salary Services Bureau
(SSB) said the huge pay hikeswould be effected this month.

The
officials said the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) would be removed fromthe
pool of other civil servants.

The Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) and the
Central Intelligence Organisation(CIO) are also expected to get huge pay
increases.

The increases are over and above the 55 percent cost of living
adjustmentsawarded to all civil servants during the collective bargaining
exercise for2002.

The police, who fall under the Home Affairs
Ministry received $17 billion inthe 2002 budget announced by the Minister of
Finance and EconomicDevelopment, Dr Simba Makoni, in
November.

Leonard Nkala, the President of the Zimbabwe Teachers'
Association (Zimta)said yesterday they had received reports that the
government had awarded thepolice huge increases, but warned that his members
would demand similarincrements.

He said: "We have been negotiating
with the government and we finally agreedthat all civil servants will get 55
percent. For them to go behind our backand give exclusive increases to a
selected group means they are notnegotiating in good faith. We will demand
the same and if we are denied, ourmembers will draw up the next course of
action".

Efforts to get comment from Home Affairs Minister, John Nkomo
were fruitlessyesterday.

The MDC shadow Minister of Home Affairs,
Professor Welshman Ncube, yesterdaysaid his party took the latest increases
to be part of a widening campaignby Zanu PF to blindfold the civil service
into "trading its professionalismfor commissariat posts in Zanu
PF".

"The government has no money to pay these huge salary bills and we
arelikely to see them borrowing funds for this bribery project which they
haveembarked on," said Ncube. "No amount of bribery will stop the people
ofZimbabwe from determining their destiny. The end is coming and only
foolishpeople will take these salaries to mean better living because prices
ofbasic commodities are doubling daily."

HIGH Court judge, Justice Benjamin
Paradza, yesterday ordered Zanu PFleaders and their supporters to
immediately stop interfering with theinstallation of Francis Dhlakama of the
MDC as the elected executive mayorfor Chegutu following his victory in the
election held on 8 and 9 December.

Dismissing two applications brought
before the court by Stanley Majiri, thelosing Zanu PF candidate, the judge
said the order sought by Zanu PF to stopthe swearing-in ceremony of
Dhlakama, was not in the spirit of the law.

In his first application,
Majiri wanted the court to prohibit Dhlakama fromtaking office as mayor and
to stop him from executing any of the functionsof a mayor.

The judge
dismissed the application on the grounds that the directive soughtby Zanu PF
was incompatible with the legislation as provided for by Section48 of the
Urban Councils Act of the Constitution of Zimbabwe.

The judge threw out
an order requested by Zanu PF to prohibit the town clerkof Chegutu from
administering the oath of office on the Chegutu mayor-elect.

The
application was dismissed on the grounds that council legislationcompels a
new mayor to assume office as soon as the result is declared.

The judge
also noted that if the new mayor was barred from executing hisofficial
duties, that could adversely affect the council business ofChegutu, and
prejudice ratepayers of crucial service.

In another unsuccessful
application, Zanu PF wanted a court order compellingthe Registrar-General,
Tobaiwa Mudede, to open the sealed ballot boxes usedin the Chegutu mayoral
election to enable their candidate to retrieveevidence of alleged electoral
anomalies.

But the judge dismissed the application, saying the matter was
not urgentand should be properly dealt with by the judge who will deal with
thepetition already filed by Zanu PF in which it is challenging the result
ofthe election.

THE United Nations' World Food
Programme (WFP), which in December made anurgent appeal for US$54 million
(Z$2,970 billion) to feed more than 550 000rural Zimbabweans faced with
severe food shortages, will soon move to urbanareas to find out how many
more people require food.

In an interview, WFP deputy regional director
for Eastern and SouthernAfrica, Nicolas Siwingwa, said the agency would soon
begin a food aid surveyin urban areas to find out how many people also
required assistance.

Siwingwa said: "We have already lined up a team of
experts who will come tourban areas and we expect to expand the programme to
these areas."

The WFP food aid programmes in urban areas would be
probably the first suchprojects in Zimbabwe in recent times.

Urban
populations have over the years been left out of the government foodaid
programmes as they were considered better off than the rural people.

"We
know there are food shortages in urban areas and food aid programme willbe
launched after the survey," Siwingwa said.

He did not say how the urban
food aid programmes would be co-ordinated, butgave details on the rural food
projects.

The bulk of the
food would be imported from the United States of America,while some of it
would come from South Africa.

WFP regional director for Eastern and
Southern Africa, Judith Lewis, saidlast month that the agency hoped to
secure funding as quickly as possible toensure that food distribution was
underway this month. She appealed todonors for cash contributions, saying
this would help secure food stocksrapidly and locally.

"We are in the
process now of identifying non-governmental organisations onthe ground who
have experience in food aid and distribution. We needimplementing partners
who can hit the ground running. We have been planningon using these
organisations as partners so as not to lose time and in thenext few weeks we
will have workshops with them," Lewis said.

Lewis dismissed widespread
concern among non-governmental organisations inZimbabwe that the government
would use food aid as a political tool duringthe run-up to March's
presidential election by providing aid to vulnerablerural populations only.
She said WFP and other assessments indicated thatrural populations were in
dire need of food. Further assessments would beundertaken, she said, with a
view to extending the relief operation to urbancentres where poverty and
hunger have been deepening.

The government asked for international
assistance in October and signed anagreement with WFP last week, paving the
way for the agency to beginoperations.

Already, many Zimbabweans
average only one meal a day, or are going anentire day without
food.

The hardest-hit populations are spread throughout 22 districts
located inthe south, west and extreme north of Zimbabwe, areas where food
shortagesand hunger are a chronic problem.

Zimbabwe is facing food
shortages because crop production was poor in thepast season due to bad
weather patterns, while commercial farmersdrastically reduced planting due
to uncertainties caused by the landinvasions.

PROPERTY worth
thousands of dollars was damaged yesterday when Zanu PFmilitia went on the
rampage, stoning houses in Kuwadzana Extension in
broaddaylight.

Residents complained that the police stood idly by
while the youthsterrorised them for about two-and-a-half hours.

Armed
with sticks, stones and other weapons, they looted grocery shops,
fleamarkets and vegetable stalls.

They destroyed windows at more than
70 houses and stole clothing.

Initially the hoodlums had overwhelmed the
residents until their victimsganged up against them, resulting in running
battles. Police stepped in toprotect the Zanu PF youths, now outnumbered by
angry residents.

A member of the militia hiding in a maize patch after
looting clothes fromone house was severely assaulted by the residents when
he tried to rejoinhis retreating colleagues.

A woman whose food and
clothes were looted complained: "The police areabetting the violence. How
else could anyone explain their behaviour whenthey are supposed to protect
us from these villains?"

The Minister of Home Affairs, John Nkomo,
speaking by telephone fromBulawayo, said residents whose rights were
violated should report to thepolice.

"Nobody should break the law and
assault another person," he said.

When told of the police inaction and
their apparent protection of theyouths, Nkomo said: "If the police were
standing by while the youths weredamaging property, then write what you
saw."

The youths attacked houses and people at random, leaving many
residentsstunned and terrified. They chanted Zanu PF slogans as they stoned
cars andhouses, beating up residents who would not join them in shouting
theirparty's slogans.

A resident walking behind his wife when a
smaller group of the youthsapproached said they ordered her to shout a
slogan.

"She was saved from being beaten up by one of the youths who
pleaded withthem not to attack her because she is pregnant," the husband
said.

Residents said the youths included recent "graduates" from the
Border Gezitraining centre in Mt Darwin. They were transported in five buses
to a warveterans' base at Snake Park from where they launched their
attack.

A staffer in the private hire section at ZUPCO confirmed Zanu PF
hired fivebuses yesterday morning. "The buses were supposed to pick up
people atFourth Street," he said. Zanu PF Harare province offices are in
that street.

Most residents refused to be named for fear of
victimisation.

But Lawson Mugadza said he was in the bathroom when he
heard a commotionoutside. "I thought the police were raiding my illegal beer
outlet. Then Iheard the first window pane shattering and I realised it was
not the police.Four other windows were stoned."

One resident said:
"It was like a war situation. We were all scared. Ourchildren who were
playing on the roads ran for cover. They were crying, butthere was nothing
we could do."

No action was taken by the police despite numerous calls.
Long after the mobhad finished destroying property, the police arrived. But
there were noarrests although the group was still present.

The MP for
Kuwadzana, Learnmore Jongwe of the MDC, said in a statement: "Ithas become
apparent that this so-called national youth service is, in fact,a Zanu PF
party service where the murderous party is recruiting children toterrorise
their own parents. What leaves a bitter taste in the mouth is thatthe youths
who are causing all this mayhem are doing so under
policeescort."

Nelson Chamisa, the MDC national youth chairman, has
warned his party wouldretaliate if Zanu PF militias continue attacking
innocent civilians. Chamisasaid although the MDC did not want to pursue an
agenda of violence, theparty had been left with no option, except to defend
its members. PaddingtonJapajapa, the president of the Zimbabwe Indigenous
Economic EmpowermentOrganisation, said Zimbabwean youths must not allow
themselves to be used bypoliticians to unleash violence against political
opponents.

Elliot Manyika, the Minister of Youth, Gender and Employment
Creation, onFriday denied youths trained for national service were beating
up oppositionsupporters in both urban and rural areas.
BBC

Tuesday, 1 January, 2002, 18:12 GMTMugabe supporters on
rampage

Supporters of President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe have
rampaged through thecapital Harare beating local residents and looting
shops.The violence began on Monday when an estimated 100 youths descended
upon thetownships of Kuwadzana and Mabvuku.

The main opposition party
said the young militants attacked people as partof Mr Mugabe's re-election
campaign.

Police have not commented on the incidents.

The violence
came after the publication on Monday of the names of 1,000people who had
been allocated land to be seized from white farmers.

A local resident in
Kuwadzana said the attackers were supporters of thegoverning Zanu-PF
party.

"I was coming home from town, when I saw people running, running,"
thewitness told AFP news agency, fearing to give his name.

"These
Zanu-PF people were stealing from the shops, beating people - even intheir
houses," he said.

In a statement, the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) said:"This group of about 100 youths was beating up people,
accusing them ofbeing MDC supporters."

"[They were] graduates from
the Border Gezi Training Camp who, being trainedostensibly under a national
youth service training program ... randomly beatup and harassed the
residents of Kuwadzana," before moving on to the Mabvukutownship, said the
MDC's national youth chairman, Nelson Chamisa.

Mr Chamisa said it had
become apparent that "this so-called national youthtraining service is in
fact a Zanu-PF party service where the murderousZanu-PF is recruiting
children to terrorise their parents".

Land redistribution

On
Monday, Zimbabwe's main state-owned newspaper, The Herald, said the
first1,000 names were part of a list to be published in full over the next
fewdays of 100,000 black Zimbabweans who will benefit from the
landredistribution.About 1,700 white-owned farms have already been
occupied - some violently -by supporters of President Robert Mugabe in the
controversial land reformprogramme that is at the heart of the country's
political crisis.

The 8.5 million hectares earmarked for seizure in the
run-up to presidentialelections next March make up 95% of the land currently
owned by whiteZimbabweans.

Correspondents say Mr Mugabe believes that
seizing land from white farmersis a vote-winner and he has made the policy a
key part of his campaign forre-election.

PRESIDENT Mugabe could face international censure before the
Presidentialelection next March over atrocities committed by his government
inMatabeleland and Midlands in which over 20 000 people died.

Civic
organisations last week said a conference planned next month willinclude
churches and international human rights organisations to "audit"
theatrocities.

The resolutions of the conference would be passed on
to the Commonwealth andthe United Nations for action, which could seriously
affect Mugabe'scampaign for an extension of his 21-year rule.

Dr John
Makumbe, the chairman of Transparency International, a human rightswatchdog,
said several civic organisations, including the NationalConstitutional
Assembly (NCA), Bulawayo Dialogue, churches and the CatholicCommission for
Justice and Peace (CCJP) would take part in the conference.

The meeting
follows resolutions passed at a crisis conference held in Hararein October
to look at the breakdown of law and order in the country.

It was felt
that the atrocities committed by the North Korean-trained 5Brigade between
1982 and 1987, deserved a special conference.

Makumbe said: "As civic
society, we don't believe that anyone can commitcrimes and get away with it.
People should account for human rightsviolations, even 20 years
later."

The 5 Brigade was sent to hunt down dissidents but ended up
killing innocentcivilians, mostly supporters of Joshua Nkomo's PF-Zapu.
Nkomo had to fleeinto self-imposed exile from Mugabe's men.

Makumbe
said: "We feel that there is no better time to raise the issue ofthe
atrocities than now when the same players have embarked on yet
anotherviolent campaign.

"We are in the process of compiling the
names of people who aremasterminding the violence today so that when a new
democratic order - whichis not far away - is established, we will be able to
make them account fortheir actions."

Mugabe has accepted
responsibility for the atrocities which he described as"an act of madness"
and promised compensation to victims.But he has failed to stick to his
promise.

"We don't believe that someone can kill thousands of people and
get awaywith it by just saying it was an act of madness," said Bekithemba
Sibindi,the president of the pressure group, Imbovane
Yamahlabezulu.

"We expect the international community to do what it did
with other tyrantslike Slobodan Milosevic (former Yugoslav President) for
crimes againsthumanity."

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa (AP) Zimbabwe used to be held up
as a model forAfrica, but after nearly two years of chaos and
government-sponsored attackson white farms and political opponents, the
country once known for itsprosperity and stability is hurtling toward
anarchy.Its economy is unhinged, its rural areas are choked by violence, its
media,courts and opposition are under threat and hundreds of thousands of
peopleare facing starvation"Four years ago Zimbabwe was a wonderful
country," said Tarcisius Zimbiti,acting director of Zimbabwe's Catholic
Justice and Peace Commission. "Now weare in hell."Human rights workers,
opposition leaders and international officials say thechaos is an
orchestrated campaign to ensure the re-election of PresidentRobert Mugabe,
the increasingly unpopular leader who has ruled Zimbabwesince independence
in 1980."This is a political game that is being played," Zimbiti said in a
telephoneinterview. "There is no way we could have free and fair elections
because ofthe amount of intimidation going on at the moment."Mugabe's
spokesman, George Charamba, did not return repeated calls forcomment from
The Associated Press.The violence began soon after the surprise defeat in
February 2000 of aconstitutional referendum that would have further
entrenched Mugabe's broadpowers to rule the country.Acting with tacit
government approval, thousands of armed militants led byveterans of
Zimbabwe's independence war began occupying farms owned by whiteZimbabweans,
many of whom opposed the referendum and are key supporters ofthe opposition
Movement for Democratic Change.The militants demanded the farms be seized
and distributed to the country'smillions of landless blacks.Human rights
groups said the government was less interested in correctingZimbabwe's
unfair land allocation than in intimidating opposition supportersahead of
June 2000 parliamentary elections. The Movement for DemocraticChange won
nearly half Parliament's elected seats anyway.With presidential elections
expected in March, the chaos has spread into thetowns and cities and even
into the Supreme Court, which declared Mugabe'splan to seize white-owned
land illegal last year.Hundreds of thugs from Mugabe's ruling Zimbabwe
African National UnionPatriotic Front stormed the court last year, dancing
behind the judges'benches and chanting party slogans. Police made no move to
stop them, and noone was arrested.Anthony Gubbay, chief justice at the
time, has called the court invasion"disgraceful" and said Mugabe's public
repudiations of the courts "show ablatant and contemptuous disrespect for
the constitution."Earlier this year, the government forced Gubbay to retire,
and the court,with four new judges loyal to Mugabe, ruled the land program
legal.The country's once-thriving independent press has also come under
attack.Police have routinely arrested journalists, authorities have refused
entryto the country to many foreign correspondents, including several from
theAP, and Parliament is considering a harsh new media bill.The
government also has announced plans to ban foreign election monitors.Ruling
party militants have killed scores of opposition supporters. On Nov.16, the
militants firebombed the Movement for Democratic Change office inBulawayo,
accusing the movement of killing a ruling party militant. Policearrested the
office's administrative staff in the killing, weakening themovement in the
western city that was its stronghold."The gloves are completely off," said
David Coltart , a spokesman for themovement. "There is an increasing sense
of desperation and paranoia ingovernment circles."The ruling party has
begun calling the opposition "terrorists," and statetelevision is labeling
the government crackdown a "War on Terror." U.S. Rep.Ed Royce, a California
Republican who sponsored a bill proposing sanctionson Zimbabwe, called the
terrorist accusation "Orwellian" and praised theopposition for not resorting
to violence.The bill, which has been adopted but most be reconciled with a
similarmeasure in the U.S. Senate, would freeze loans and debt relief to
Zimbabwefrom Western financial institutions. The European Union has proposed
similarmeasures.But most aid to the economically crippled country has
already been frozen.Unemployment is running at more than 50 percent and
inflation is out ofcontrol. The farm violence and bad weather have led to a
food shortage thatthreatens to leave more than half a million Zimbabweans
hungry.Other leaders in the region, usually reticent to criticize fellow
Africanleaders, have begun to worry that Zimbabwe's instability could hurt
them.Last month, Botswana President Festus Mogae blamed Mugabe for not
ending theviolence, and South African President Thabo Mbeki expressed
unhappiness withthe crisis."The entire international community is very
concerned about the fact thatthis is a leader who is literally burning his
country down," Royce said bytelephone.Certain Mugabe would never leave
office without a fight, Zimbiti fears onlyhis re-election could bring
peace.Coltart disagrees."If Mugabe steals this election, there will be
almost uncontrollable levelsof anger," he said.

HARARE, Jan. 1 — Zimbabwe's future in 2002 looks bleak, or
uncertain atbest, as President Robert Mugabe wages a ''real war'' to win the
greatestelectoral challenge of his career, analysts say.Analysts say the
Southern African state's fortunes will depend largely onhow the increasingly
unpredictable Mugabe manages the growing pressure onhis 22-year-old
government ahead of presidential elections scheduled forMarch.
Besides rising political violence blamed on his supporters, Mugabehas
stepped up the seizure of white-owned farms and is expected to pushthrough
parliament a media bill threatening jail terms for journalists whoviolate
tough new regulations. But some analysts believe the former guerrilla
leader could stillalter policies which have contributed to Zimbabwe's slide
into recession andput him on a collision course with most of the
international community. ''On the facts at hand, the future is looking
quite bleak oruncertain at the very best, but that does not mean that hell
isunavoidable,'' said political analyst Emmanuel Magade.
''Politics is not a mathematical equation, and it's still possiblethat
Mugabe will realise that his current strategy is not a winningstrategy,'' he
told Reuters. Masipula Sithole, one of Zimbabwe's leading political
analysts, saysMugabe is facing such massive domestic, regional and
internationalopposition that he would not be able to get away with a violent
electioncampaign or to cheat. ''It would be suicidal,'' he said.
''But I believe that Mugabe can,in his own interest, in the interest of his
party and in the interest ofZimbabwe, stop listening to the hawkish advice
of young opportunists andintellectual mercenaries in his
court.''

ZIMBABWE CRISIS AFFECTING REGION The 14-nation
Southern African Development Community has publiclybacked Mugabe's
leadership but analysts say there is tough talking behindthe scenes to try
to persuade him to comply with regional and internationalnorms.
Zimbabwe's crisis has been blamed for contributing to a slide inSouth
Africa's currency last month, threatening the continent's biggesteconomy
with rampant inflation and interest rate hikes. Zimbabwe's own economy
has been crippled by a shortage of fuel andforeign exchange, while a drop in
agricultural output is threatening a foodshortfall. Inflation is at 100
percent and rising, while interest rates areabove 70 percent.
Without international donor support, Mugabe has little chance ofresolving
his economic problems, analysts say. The European Union and the United
States have edged closer tosanctions while the Commonwealth, a grouping of
mostly former Britishcolonies, is threatening to suspend Zimbabwe from the
organisation.

MUGABE DECLARES ''REAL WAR'' ON OPPOSITION
Mugabe, who will be 78 next month, launched his bid for re-electionearly
last month with a fiery declaration of ''real war'' against hispolitical
foes in the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). His
government has proposed amendments banning independent observers,forbidding
private voter education and denying voting rights to millions ofZimbabweans
abroad. The government has also tabled a public order and security
bill whichcritics say contains sweeping powers to suppress the opposition
ahead of thepoll. But MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai still poses the
strongest challengeto Mugabe since he won power when the former Rhodesia
gained independencefrom Britain in 1980. In an editorial on the
eve of the new year, Zimbabwe'sprivately-owned Daily News said Zimbabweans
could only secure their futureby braving political violence and throwing out
Mugabe in the Marchelections. ''We enter the year 2002, a year
which could change the political andeconomic fortunes of this beautiful
country if the people are courageous intheir choice of leadership,'' it
said.

Zimbabwe's official maize stocks are
at their lowest level in two years.They are 63 percent below the level at
the same time last year, the FamineEarly Warning System says. It says by
mid-October, food stocks wereestimated at 200 355 tonnes. It has not yet
released figures for Novemberwhich would give a clearer picture.

FEWS
says stocks at the Grain Marketing Board and the Strategic GrainReserve are
now decreasing at a faster rate having picked up by 5 000 tonnesin October
from an average of 50 000 tonnes per month. It says that at thisrate, the
stocks will be exhausted by the end of January which is too earlyfor this
season's crop.

Even with planned imports of 100 000 tonnes, the country
will still have adeficit until the next harvest in May-June 2002, FEWS says.
The governmenthas assured consumers that the country will not run short of
maize. It haseven ordered non-governmental organisations not to distribute
food to theneedy fearing they could campaign for the opposition Movement for
DemocraticChange which is a coalition of labour, civic organisations and
academics.This is despite reports that over 700 000 people will need about
58 000tonnes of food aid for six months.

FEWS says non-governmental
organisations had already started childsupplementary feeding programmes in
some districts. Care International wasfeeding about 140 000 children in
Zvishavane and Mberengwa Districts in theMidlands; and Mwenezi, Zaka, Chivi
and Masvingo Districts in Masvingo. WorldVision was planning to feed 130 000
people under its food-for-work programmein Mberengwa and Gokwe North
Districts of the Midlands; and Matopo, Gwanda,Beitbridge, and Bulilimamangwe
Districts of Matebeleland South. OXFAM wasplanning to fund the feeding of 8
500 people in Beitbridge, MasvingoDistrict, and two informal settlements in
Mashonaland West and Central. Itis not clear what happened to these
programmes following the governmentorder.

FEWS also says some 74 998
farm workers and their families who had beendisplaced through land
occupations required assistance. It says anothergroup that could easily be
ignored is the urban poor. With inflation at justunder 90 percent in
September, salaries in real terms had been eroded by 20percent in 2000, and
by more than 70 percent in 2001.

This decline in real wages has occurred
despite the 20 to 65 percent salaryincreases awarded in much of the formal
sector in July 2001. The decline insalaries in real terms had eroded food
security for the lowest paid workers.

The Insider (Harare)December 31, 2001Posted to the web December 31,
2001Staff WriterBulawayo

Commercial farmers, who had taken the
government to court saying its fasttrack resettlement programme was illegal,
has changed tack after losing thecase at the Supreme Court.CFU president
Colin Cloete says members may have better luck if they take upcases at
district and provincial levels. "The Union had sought to establishblanket
defences for its members and had expected the declaring of thecurrent manner
in which land acquisition is being implemented to begenerally unlawful. We
are informed that individual landowners are notautomatically barred from
raising similar defences in respect of theparticular situations that they
may face...."Members are, therefore, advised that given the stark reality on
the groundand in the courts, the most fruitful short-term solutions to
immediateproblems are more likely to be achieved through discussion with
thegovernment officials directing the exercise on the ground in
theirrespective districts. Additionally, we advise that settlements reached
insome recent Administrative Court cases also show that there is still
roomfor compromise and survival through this route."