EU Targets 450 GW Offshore Wind by 2050

The EU Commission's big goals for offshore wind - between 230 and
450 GW by 2050 - are achievable provided the right investments in
electricity grids and Governments take the right approach to
maritime spatial planning, said a report.

According to the WindEurope report examines where 450 GW of
offshore wind could be deployed most cost-effectively around
Europe, bearing in mind there is only 20 GW today. 450 GW of
offshore wind is part of a European Commission scenario to
deliver climate neutrality by 2050.

The report is a remit from the Energy Ministers of the 10 'North
Seas' countries who coordinate their work on offshore wind with
each other and the Commission.

The report concludes that 212 GW should be deployed in the North
Sea, 85 GW in the Atlantic (including the Irish Sea), 83 GW in
the Baltic, and 70 GW in the Mediterranean and other Southern
European waters. This reflects the relative wind resources,
proximity to energy demand and the location of the supply chain.

The report also breaks down how would each country would deploy
in an optimal scenario. The 380 GW that would deployed in
Northern European waters would require less than 3% of the total
space there.

The report considers how much it would cost to build these large
volumes of offshore wind. It shows how maritime spatial planning
is key to minimize costs. In at least 60% of the North Seas it is
not possible to build offshore wind farms today.

These "exclusion zones" exist either for environmental reasons or
because space is set aside for fishing, shipping and military
activity. They mean we can only build less than a quarter of the
required volumes at very low cost - below €50/MWh.

But with a different approach to maritime spatial planning, with
climate change at its heart, we could build much more at these
prices - and benefit fully from the spectacular cost reductions
achieved in recent years. Multiple use, e.g. allowing certain
types of fishing in offshore wind farms, would really help.

Building 450 GW offshore wind by 2050 requires Europe to install
over 20 GW a year by 2030 compared to 3 GW today. The industry is
gearing up for this, but it's crucial that Governments provide
visibility on volumes and revenue schemes to give long-term
confidence for the necessary investments.

Governments should also anticipate this significant growth in
offshore wind in their planning for both offshore and onshore
grid connections. Not least since there is a 10-year lead time on
planning and building the grids needed for offshore wind.
Offshore grid investments will need to rise from less than €2bn
in 2020 to up €8bn a year by 2030.

Europe also needs to provide a regulatory framework for offshore
wind farms that have grid connections to more than one country.
These "hybrid" projects will enable us to pool assets and
infrastructure and reduce costs.

Capital expenditure on offshore wind including grids will need to
rise from around €6bn a year in 2020 to €23bn by 2030 and
thereafter up to €45bn.

WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson said: "The EU says Europe needs at
least 10 times as much offshore wind as we have today meet the
2050 goal of decarbonizing energy. The International Energy
Agency believes offshore wind could become the no. 1 source of
power generation in Europe in the early 2040s. The report shows
that it is do-able and affordable. But three things need to
happen: (1) the offshore wind supply chain keeps growing; (2) we
build the grid connections; and (3) we get the maritime spatial
planning right.