Better

(Joshua Gunter/The Plain Dealer)

Cleveland Browns (2017 record: 0-16) +5.5 wins

The young Browns are a year older, the team has a competent starting QB in Tyrod Taylor (if he can fend off Baker Mayfield, that is) and the secondary is much improved over a season ago. But even with all those upgrades, Vegas doesn’t see Cleveland pushing for a playoff spot just yet, though they should be a lot more competitive.

Houston Texans (2017 record: 4-12) +4.5 wins

The Texans added Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieu to the secondary, but the jump in expected wins is based on injured stars who will return in 2018, including Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt.

New York Giants (2017 record: 3-13) +3.5 wins

Odell Beckham should be healthy, and drafting Saquon Barkley and Will Hernandez should help the running game. Will the Giants be able to score over 20 points consistently this season? Vegas seems to think so — though it won’t be good enough to get New York back to the postseason in what could be one of Eli Manning’s final years.

San Francisco 49ers (2017 record: 6-10) +3 wins

Getting a full year of Jimmy Garoppolo will thrust the 49ers into the playoff race, Vegas seems to think.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Packers (2017 record: 7-9) +3 wins

Aaron Rodgers is back, which means the Packers should get back to their winning ways. How the Packers offense moves on after losing Jordy Nelson will decide the fate of the offense and this team as a whole.

Indianapolis Colts (2017 record: 4-12) +2.5 wins

The Colts should be getting Andrew Luck healthy, but we thought the same last offseason. Vegas’ expectations are clearly tempered. Bookmakers see the Colts struggling to get back to .500.

Denver Broncos (2017 record: 5-11) +2 wins

New quarterback; not-so-different result. The Broncos defense should be better after drafting Bradley Chubb, but the offense could struggle once again with Case Keenum, who needs to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, as the team’s lone option at QB heading into 2018.

Oakland Raiders (2017 record: 6-10) +2 wins

Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, but Vegas still isn’t too high on this Raiders team that got a lot older in the offseason. An 8-8 finish seems like a reasonable expectation for this roster.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2017 record: 5-11) +1.5 wins

Well, just having Jameis Winston healthy for a full 16-game schedule should help Tampa Bay hit this mark easily. The defensive line has been overhauled for the better, and the run game should get a boost from rookie Ronald Jones. Vegas sees the Bucs as a 6.5-win team, but a big year from Winston could push them into the playoff chase. How many extra W’s will he eat?

Chicago Bears (2017 record: 5-11) +1.5 wins

The Bears will be a trendy sleeper pick after a busy offseason, but Vegas doesn’t seem to be too impressed. Chicago is still pegged as a 6.5-win team, despite having a promising rookie quarterback and an overhauled receiving corps.

No change

Los Angeles Chargers (2017 record: 9-7)

The Chargers looked like one of the AFC’s best teams down the stretch of 2017, but Vegas sees more of the same in Los Angeles’ future.

Cincinnati Bengals (2017 record: 7-9)

Speaking of more of the same, Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton still control Cincy’s destiny, which means another near-.500 season is likely on tap.

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Redskins (2017 record: 7-9)

The Redskins traded one slightly above-average quarterback (Kirk Cousins) for another (Alex Smith), and Vegas doesn’t see it having much of an impact on the team’s record.

Miami Dolphins (2017 record: 6-10)

Yes, the Dolphins are getting the underrated Ryan Tannehill back, but this team also lost its best defensive player and best receiver. Ndamukong Suh and Jarvis Landry will be tough to replace.

Worse

Dallas Cowboys (2017 record: 9-7) -0.5 win

Everything that could go wrong for Dallas in 2017 did. But even with a little more luck, Vegas doesn’t see the Cowboys getting any better.

Tennessee Titans (2017 record: 9-7) -1 win

The Titans weren’t as a good as their 2017 record suggests, which means the team could be in for some regression. But Vegas seems to think the coaching change and offseason acquisitions of Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler will help make up for that.

Atlanta Falcons (2017 record: 10-6) -1 win

The Falcons young defense is getting better and the offense is still loaded. The only thing that will hold this team back from winning 10 games again is offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Vegas doesn’t seem to have too much faith in him.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville Jaguars (2017 record: 10-6) -1 win

The Jaguars’ playoff run made this team look a lot better than it was in 2017. The Jags had good injury luck, an easy schedule and were still “only” a 10-win team. A reversal of fortune could see this team miss out on the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens (2017 record: 9-7) -1 win

It’s clear that Vegas does not believe Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback. Or it doesn’t have faith in his supporting cast. Both are probably true.

Detroit Lions (2017 record: 9-7) -1 win

With Aaron Rodgers back healthy for Green Bay, teams in the NFC North are going to have a much tougher time. So even if Detroit has continued to improve the roster, it doesn’t necessarily mean it will lead to a better record, unfortunately.

Seattle Seahawks (2017 record: 9-7) -1 win

The Seahawks defense is a lot less recognizable, and the offensive line remains a mess. Vegas must have a lot of faith in Russell Wilson to expect eight wins out of this pared down roster.

(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

New York Jets (2017 record: 5-11) -1 win

The Jets snuck up on some teams last year, winning five games when everyone expected them to be the next 0-16 team. That won’t happen again this year, says Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs (2017 record: 10-6) -1.5 wins

The Chiefs are banking on a quarterback with one start under his belt. And they lost their best defensive player. Andy Reid is still here, so Kansas City won’t fall too far.

New Orleans Saints (2017 record: 11-5) -1.5 wins

The Saints exceeded expectations thanks to big contributions from its young core, which should only get better in 2018. But Drew Brees isn’t getting any younger.

Los Angeles Rams (2017 record: 11-5) -1.5 wins

This is the biggest shock on the list. On paper, the Rams are a significantly improved team compared to last year. Maybe Vegas isn’t as high on Sean McVay as the rest of us.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots (2017 record: 13-3) -2 wins

This isn’t really an indictment of the Patriots. It’s just really hard to win 12 games in the NFL. And New England did let a lot of talent walk in free agency.

Carolina Panthers (2017 record: 11-5) -2 wins

The Panthers gave Cam Newton more weapons in the passing game, but the offensive line is worse and the secondary didn’t get any better.

Philadelphia Eagles (2017 record: 13-3) -2.5 wins

With Carson Wentz’s health still a question mark, a 2.5-game drop isn’t out of the question, even if the Eagles are just as talented as they were last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2017 record: 13-3) -2.5 wins

The Steelers should march to another NFC North crown, but Ben Roethlisberger is a year older after showing some signs of decline in 2017. If he regresses, Pittsburgh is in trouble.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills (2017 record: 9-7) -2.5 wins

The Bills took a step back after their playoff breakthrough last season. A.J. McCarron is a downgrade from Tyrod Taylor and the offensive line lost some key pieces. Buffalo will be lucky to win seven games in 2018.

Arizona Cardinals (2017 record: 8-8) -2.5 wins

This is a rather pessimistic outlook for Arizona. That defense is a lot better than it gets credit for, and the quarterback situation is vastly improved after last year’s debacle. The Cardinals should be a .500 team next season.

Minnesota Vikings (2017 record: 13-3) -3 wins

Apparently, Vegas isn’t as stoked about the Kirk Cousins signing as Minnesota is. Or this could be the “Aaron Rodgers is healthy again” effect. And, as we pointed out with the Patriots, winning 13 games in an NFL season is ridiculously hard.

Which NFL teams have improved the most this offseason, according to Vegas' projected win totals

A look at all 32 teams’ win projections for the 2018 season.

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