Growth of the Triangle and the Global Order

By the year 2020 Russia, India and China will probably be among the top five economies of the world. Source: Shutterstock/Legion Media

The rapid growth of Russia, China and India, though not totally hassle free, will have implications for the global order.

Euromonitor
International, an independent agency known for strategy research for consumer
markets recently reported that by the year 2020, Russia, India and China will
be among the top five economies of the world. The rapid growth of these
countries, though not totally hassle free, will have implications for the
global order. In the post-Cold War globalized world where economic muscle
trumps over military and political postures, the growth story of the
Russia-India-China triangle will have long term implications for the world.
According to the agency, “By 2020, three (Russia, India and China) of the
world’s five largest economies will be emerging countries, accounting for 30.4
per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity
(PPP) terms.”

The report
suggests that India surpassed Japan in 2011 in terms of purchasing power parity
(PPP). While India’s growth in consumer market and infrastructure, and the
rising middle class will propel it to grow faster, in case of Russia its energy
resources will propel such a growth. As per the report, China will be the
largest economy in the world in terms of PPP and will account for 19 percent of
global GDP in PPP terms by 2020. Russia will surpass the economy of Germany by
2016. China will later have to contend with, as the report suggests, labour
costs, pollution, a potential real estate bubble and rapid ageing. In case of India and Russia, the growth story
similarly will have its counter effects which the countries have to contend
with. It is but natural that rapid economic growth has its consequences which
need to be tackled with. That may not be the immediate concern. The point that
needs emphasis is that by the year 2020, these three countries will be among
the top five economies of the world, the other two being the US and Japan. The
report points out, “Advanced economies are being displaced by emerging market
superpowers, notably the BRIC countries, which has been accelerated by the
seismic effects of the global economic downturn of 2008-2009.” The report
predicts that, “These shifts will influence global politics, business
environments and investment flows while consumer markets in developing
countries will rise in importance as the middle class expands.”

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As the three
countries grow rapidly, they need to coordinate their positions and sort out
differences to play meaningful role on the international scene. In case of
Russia and India, though both enjoy strategic partnership the economic content
of that partnership is not robust. This was pointed out by the India President
last week during the visit of Chairperson of the Council of Russian Federation,
who led a delegation of Russian parliamentarians to New Delhi. As stated by the
Indian President, Russia and India are gearing their policy mechanisms to double
their trade to $20 billion by 2020. Also, the characterisation of the bilateral
economic relations as defence centric needs to be transcended and the economic
partnership must be diversified to other areas. There is an image, perhaps much
hyped, that the economic relations are purely centered on arms and armaments.
This image must be broadened to include other areas like energy,
infrastructure, and consumer goods. In this context, the declaration by the
Indian Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office last week that both the
countries are cooperating on the space mission Chandrayaan-2 satellite for
joint moon operation is an addition to this diversification kit. Emphasis
should also be given to people to people contact. In case of India and China perhaps
the problem is the reverse one. Though both the countries have a high record of
trade, the political and cultural relations hang on a lower balance, which
needs to be corrected.

These three
rapidly rising economies have the potentials to impact the global decision
making. The question here is how far the leaders of the countries perceive the
situation as propitious and how far the countries coordinate with each other.
There are some positive signs in this respect. The meeting of leaders of the
three countries in Moscow last month to deliberate on the issue of Afghanistan
and their common position that the country should not slip into chaos and
extremism is a case in point. The three countries have considerable stakes in
Afghanistan. All of them are concerned about spill -over effects of extremism.
The situation is very fluid as nothing clear has emerged about the prospects of
stability after the NATO led International Assistance Security Force departs.
The ascendancy of Taliban and the undermining of the Karzai regime gives rise
to the fear of the return of the Taliban regime which none of the countries
would prefer. Not only they have stakes in peace and stability, but also they
have stakes in economic development of the country. Afghanistan’s proximity to
Pakistan, China, and Central Asia, also areas of interest of Russia and India
make the situation further significant for peace and economic development of
all these countries.

India, Russia
and China are part of many forums like the Russia-India-China triangle,
Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa grouping and Group-20. The three
countries can form a nucleus of the larger groupings and provide direction to
developments in international politics. For that to be realized, they have to
develop a common framework through dialogue and deliberation. The Moscow
meeting of the three countries on Afghanistan is a positive development in this
regard. They can also play decisive roles in reform of international bodies
like the United Nations or the International Monetary Fund, or in addressing
international issues like religious extremism and terrorism, transnational
crimes and drug trafficking, and international conflicts by minimizing
differences and maximizing mutual understanding.

Dr Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra is an Indian
commentator. His areas of interests
include India-Russia relations, conflict and peace, and strategic aspects of
Eurasian politics.