Face it: If you’re not living in Los Angeles and haven’t already defected from Lakerland to Clipperdom, then your team is not getting star point guard Chris Paul, and it doesn’t matter whom Paul is reportedly texting. The Clippers are poised to re-sign Paul, and any doubt about their ability to do so was removed when they signed Doc Rivers as their coach.

And Dwight Howard won’t say what he’s doing till July 10.

There. Now that that’s settled, we can get on with the rest of NBA free agency.

While the fates of the top 2 players on the free agent board this year will play out in Los Angeles, the great mass of actual NBA work will take place elsewhere, as a handful of teams have collected enough cap space to alter their rosters this summer.

But as one general manager told SN: “This isn’t going to be like most offseasons. There is cap space out there, but no one is going to be giving it away. I think there are a lot of players who will be in for some serious disappointment. Things are shifting.”

The trend that has most significantly shifted is, to put it simply, intelligence. Increasingly, the old guard of NBA general managers has melted away, and in its place is a younger, sharper group armed not only with an extensive knowledge of the intricacies of the collective-bargaining agreement, but with a more complete grasp on advanced statistics and how they can be applied to team-building.

For example, consider the situations of Utah’s Mo Williams and Brooklyn’s C.J. Watson. Williams has been a scorer throughout his career, and is coming off a bloated contract that paid him $8.5 million last year. Watson, meanwhile, was a backup point guard who made less than $1 million last year. Williams averaged 12.9 points, and Watson 6.8 points.

Williams is an inefficient offensive player and bad defensively. Watson is a very good defender and though he doesn’t score the way Williams does, he is more efficient offensively. Because Williams has more of a reputation as a guy who puts up points, in past offseasons, he might be able to command a decent contract this year. But look closely at the numbers, and despite making nearly nine times as much as Watson, he was not a better player.

With six teams—Orlando, Sacramento, Denver, Phoenix, Philadelphia and Memphis—being taken over by younger, stats-savvy front offices in the past year, the impact on free agency figures to be strong.

Which players will this affect? Have a look:

Volume scorers. Milwaukee guard Monta Ellis turned down an offer of a two-year extension worth $12 million per year, and that could prove to be a very, very bad decision. Ellis is quick and can score, but he was a 41.6 percent shooter this year, and made just 28.7 percent of his 3s. He is not bad when defending point guards, but against shooting guards, he struggles because he is just 6-3. So what do you pay a guy who requires a lot of shots and creates an immediate defensive problem in your starting five? Knicks guard J.R. Smith will be in the same position, as will O.J. Mayo and, to an extent, Kevin Martin. If they’re seeking big paydays this offseason, they probably will be disappointed.

It’s not necessarily limited to guards, either. Atlanta’s Josh Smith and Utah’s Al Jefferson, for example, are big guys who are not necessarily efficient scorers for their positions. And in Jefferson’s case, his defense isn’t much to write home about. In the past, a 6-10 center who is only 28 and averaged 17.8 points would break some NBA team’s bank. But Jefferson’s deficiencies are going to factor in his contract, too.

Big men. Remember after last year’s Finals, when the Heat’s championship—with Shane Battier playing power forward—was supposed to signal a shift in the way NBA lineups are constructed, with more emphasis on small-ball? That didn’t exactly become reality. You still need big guys, and the closer you look at the numbers, the more the importance of a strong interior presence shows itself. Beyond Dwight Howard, that is going to drive up the price of a pair of restricted free-agent big men, Minnesota’s Nikola Pekovic and San Antonio’s Tiago Splitter. Even when it comes to lower-tier big men like Marreese Speights, Zaza Pachulia and Hasheem Thabeet, there will be a market because of the benefits of their size.

Underpaid gems. It is still remarkable that teams consistently overlook a guy like Carl Landry. That was the case last year when the Warriors were able to sign Landry for $4 million with a player option this year. Landry, wisely, opted out of the deal and his 10.8 points on 54.0 percent shooting will now be on the market. It was amazing that seemingly no one recognized Landry’s abilities last year, but his off-the-charts efficiency will draw more attention this summer. Matt Barnes, Mike Dunleavy Jr., J.J. Hickson and a fellow Warrior, Jarrett Jack, will all be in the same boat.

“The emphasis on star power, I think, has been reduced a little bit,” one general manager said. “I think there will be some contracts that make you say, ‘Huh?’ like there are every year. But teams are a lot smarter in terms of how they approach free agency and contracts. You don’t want to give away contracts because you don’t feel like you have an alternative. You have to spend wisely.”