The Quinnipiac national poll, released Tuesday, December 22, showed Trump with 28 percent, just a 4 percent lead over Ted Cruz–his closest rival (and the leader two recent Iowa Polls). The significance of the Quinnipiac poll is that it was taken over the period of December 16th to 20th; hence it was the first national poll administered, at least in significant part, following Trump’s praising of Putin’s authoritarian regime. Just as it appeared that Trump’s campaign was finally showing signs of imploding, a second poll was released, this one by CNN. The two polls showed unusual variance, not only in terms of absolute numbers, but in direction of change–at least for Trump. The CNN poll was taken the 17th to 21st. It showed Trump at 39 percent, a full 21 percentage point lead over Cruz. Some variance among polls is to be expected early in the primary season. But not like this. Obviously pollsters are having a difficult time modeling the likely voter. To understand what I mean about “modeling the likely voter,”...

Over the past weekend, four Iowa polls showed Trump’s campaign stalling and then losing the lead to Dr. Carson. Our poll data analysis predicted this over a month ago, for reasons that we’ll note below, and now the first national poll confirms that it isn’t just an Iowa phenomenon, as many Trump supporters have alleged. Monday, the CBS/New York Times national poll of Republican voters showed Dr. Carson, for the first time, taking the lead over Donald Trump, 26 percent to 22 percent. Going into the third debate two of what many believe are Trump personality bugaboos, defensiveness and denial, are rearing their ugly heads as he argues that the debate won’t be fair and then denies the new polls numbers, reportedly arguing that the media “continues to report fictitious numbers,” and even blames Iowan’s for his troubles. In fairness, Trump subsequently admitted that he was in second place in Iowa. Today, Wednesday, October 28, Texas and Oklahoma poll results were published. The Texas poll showed that Trump’s earlier lead was...

This past week’s polls show some serious Donald Trump slippage. A deeper look into the polls suggests that his problems go well beyond losing the lead to Dr. Ben Carson in Iowa and Wisconsin. In today’s post we will show why his campaign is in real trouble. For the Democrats events of the week suggest a big Hillary win. Now for the details. Polls, released Thursday and Friday, indicate that Dr. Ben Carson has surged ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa. Monday, the Monmouth poll showed that surge continues. A Wisconsin poll also shows Dr. Carson moving into the lead there. Trump’s spectacular, and unconventional campaign, until now, had resulted in him taking a sizable lead in both state and national polls. There were, however, clear warning signs that his campaign had hit a wall–at a polling level well below the majority needed for nomination. We’ll look into what these signs were, but first note the reasons so many political pundits had expected his campaign to implode. This will provide the background for the data...

Thursday, October 22. New State Polls from Iowa and Wisconsin: Carson overtakes Trump. Rubio moves up. Quinnipiac’s poll in Iowa and the Wisconsin Public Radio/Norbert poll in Wisconsin spell bad news for Trump, upswings for Carson and Rubio. First the bottom line data. Carson has pulled ahead of Trump in both Iowa and Wisconsin, by 28 percent to 20 percent and 20 percent to 18 percent respectively. Rubio has moved up in both polls, garnering 13 percent in Iowa and tying Trump for second place with 18 percent. More detailed analysis of the Iowa poll’s raw data is even more problematic for Trump’s campaign. For even though he leads Carson in terms of who can better handle the economy, taxes and illegal immigration, fully 30 percent of those polled chose Trump as a candidate that they definitely could not support for the Republican nomination. (Bush was second in this to-be-avoided negative category with 21%). Only 4 percent chose Carson. Women and social conservatives gave Carson a big boost. Respondents who identified...

Note: During the Presidential campaign, we will make regular updates to our polls analysis in an effort to present the most accurate and current information. When we present analyses that reflect more than just current data driven logic, we will present those in the second part of the Polls Post. World crisis analyses will continue but appear in separate posts. We strongly recommend that you first read our short post about polls and analyses of them. There are no new national polls since our last report below. There are a few state polls worth noting. On the Democratic side, following her strong debate performance, Hillary Clinton now has a small, and not statistically significant, lead over Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. This according to the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll released today. It shows Hillary with 37 percent to Sanders’ 35. Joe Biden shows with 11 percent, amid rumors that he has been canvasing Democratic leaders throughout the U.S. in the past two days. If Biden decides not to run, Hillary’s lead...

Note: During the Presidential campaign, we will make regular updates to this polls analysis in an effort to present the most accurate and current information. When we present analyses that reflect more than just current data driven logic, we will present those in the second part of the Polls Post. World crisis analyses will continue but appear in separate posts. On Sun., October 11, CBS’s polls show Trump with 27 percent leading Carson at 21% percent. Hillary leads Sanders by 46 percent to 27 percent, Joe Biden who has yet to throw his hat in the ring is third with 16 percent. Monday, October 12. saw the release of the little known CNU poll in Virginia and CNN’s poll of Democrats in Nevada and South Carolina, and a Washington Post poll of Democrats in Maryland. These polls still show Trump’s support hitting a wall and Hillary maintaining a significant lead over Sanders. Analysis and details follow, but first necessary caveats. If you are just a “bottom line” person, look at the title...