He scored a political upset that shocked Washington. But is it Rep. Dave Brat’s turn for a shock?

...Ominous signs include Republican Ed Gillespie capturing only 51 percent of the district in the 2017 gubernatorial race. And Democrats for the first time since 1961 carried Chesterfield County, a large chunk of the district where demographic shifts have pushed the electorate leftward.

Sensing opportunity, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is targeting Brat’s seat. And Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist, has committed $30 million to elect Democrats in the midterm elections, including in Virginia.

By the end of December, Brat had raised $599,000 for his reelection campaign. But one of the two Democrats seeking their party’s nomination to face him in November — Dan Ward — was close behind, at $552,000. The other Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, had raised $386,000, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
The two candidates vying in the June 12 Democratic primary have the type of background that could attract Republican support. Dan Ward spent 25 years in the Marines, at one point piloting attack jets before serving as a military adviser in the State Department during the Obama administration.

Former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger beat former Marine pilot Dan Ward in a primary election Tuesday to become the Democratic nominee this fall against Rep. Dave Brat, R-7th, in a district that the national party has targeted for flipping.

Ward issued a concession statement saying he had full confidence that Spanberger "has what it takes to beat Dave Brat in November and will make a great Congressperson." ...

Ward's campaign especially focused on rural areas of the district trying to appeal to the working class, while Spanberger - while not ignoring any part of the district - prioritized getting votes out of the Richmond suburbs.

Campaigning in all ten of the districts counties on Tuesday, she said she heard voters telling her they liked her positive message and said she gave them something to be hopeful about.

In 2014, economics professor Dave Brat turned the political world upside-down when he upset House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the GOP primary by taking a hard line on illegal immigration. But four years later, he's at risk of getting swept out by a Democratic wave in a rapidly moderating district anchored by the professional Richmond suburbs. After courts redrew the 7th CD in 2016, President Trump took just 50 percent here, down from Mitt Romney's 56 percent in 2012.

June, former undercover CIA operative Abigail Spanberger crushed a well-funded Democratic primary opponent with 73 percent of the vote in an impressive display of grassroots support. Spanberger grew up in Henrico County (the 7th CD) writing a diary in code. As a pragmatic woman with a non-political resume, she could offer a problematic contrast for Brat, a Freedom Caucus member who complained last year about women "in my grill" at town halls.

The top of the ticket could also be a big problem for Brat. Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is highly popular in the Richmond suburbs, while ultra-conservative GOP Senate nominee Corey Stewart is a highly polarizing figure who lost the 7th CD 61 percent to 33 percent in his primary. In 2017, well-funded GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie carried the 7th CD by four points. If Stewart isn't competitive, Brat could suffer if Republicans stay home.

Brat, who has shied away from questions about Stewart, has never had to run in a competitive general election before. He's mended fences with GOP leadership and is running with the NRCC's active help. Spanberger has enjoyed help from EMILY's List and raised $903,000 by May. Ironically, the white collar Republicans in the West End Richmond suburbs who long supported Cantor could be the swing voters in this race. It's a Toss Up.