Lisa Owen interviews experts on Antacrtica

Top Antarctic
scientists warns New Zealand "not ready" for worst as ice
shelves and sea ice in Antarctica retreat and the climate
changes

Gary Wilson: "Can we mitigate this or are we
planning to adapt? I guess we're adapting... we're committed
to some kind of [climate] change at this point"

Last
time the world had CO2 levels as high as today, the West
Antarctic ice shelf collapsed; a shelf containing 20m worth
of sea level rise. So "we know the end game" we just don't
how fast it might happen.

Wilson: "We're certainly
heading into the danger level".

If global
temperature increases continue along the same path as now,
we will see more ice melt and the impact on Antarctica will
be "much worse"

That impacts the New Zealand
economy, which is dependent on ocean and climate conditions
driven by Antarctica

Chuck Kennicutt: China, Russia
and other countries have a "clear eye" on oil, gas and
fisheries in Antarctica and "it's not clear" whether the
Antarctic Treaty will protect the continent from
exploitation

The Nation is
proudly brought to you by New Zealand on Air’s Platinum
Fund.

____________________________

Lisa Owen: I’m going to come to you first
Chuck, let’s flesh out why this matters. What is
Antarctica doing for the rest of the globe?

Chuck Kennicutt: To put it simply Antarctica serves a
critical role in the earth’s system and this is related
mainly to the energy, the heat but also the water budget. So
in areas like Antarctica that change, they affect the entire
global system and this is seen through melting of ice,
warming of sea water, changing of weather and also the ozone
hole which has led to effects that we see around the
globe.

So basically it’s the engine
room?

Yes

So in
light of that, the IPCC says that we’re not cutting
greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to keep temperature
rises below 2 degrees so what would that mean for
Antarctica?

Well, what we see and these
predictions are based on the best scientific knowledge that
we have today. And what we understand is that those types of
temperature rises will continue not only in the trends that
we already have seen but accelerate them. So there’ll be
more melting of ice, there’ll be more rising of ocean
water temperatures and air temperatures so we can very
accurately predict now that continuing along the same path
that we’ve been following will simply make the effects
that we see much worse into the future.

So what are you seeing now in terms of
changes?

Well what we see is loss of
sea ice which is generally related to a rise in sea level
globally, we see the disintegration of ice shelves, retreat
of glaciers we see across the globe and also shifts in the
populations of various species so it’s a real wide range
of impacts across the spectrum of the physical and living
environment.

That’s an
interesting question and what leads to that is most of the
West Antarctic Ice Shelf is actually below sea level so it
means that the ice is below the surface of the water and it
raises a lot of questions. And we know over geologic history
that that ice shelf has completely disintegrated and the
question is, is that the most vulnerable part of Antarctica?
As we heard there’s about 60 metres of sea level rise that
potentially would happen if all of Antarctica melted and
about 20 metres of that is in West Antarctica.

And what are the other consequences of that,
you know, does it dilute a nutrient-rich ocean, what
happens?

It fundamentally changes the
heat and energy balance of the planet. The most direct
connection though is the actual supply of water into the
ocean. Typically you see particularly around Auckland and
other major cities worldwide, they’re very close to the
water so very small, literally feet, metres rise of sea
level will inundate most of the major cities worldwide.

That’s the perfect opportunity to bring
Gary into the conversation – what impact will it have
directly on New Zealand then, starting with say the weather
here?

Gary Wilson: Well I think the
first point is to just go back and say Antarctica might seem
like this place on the bottom of the planet but yes, it’s
connected directly to here so the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current washes across southern New Zealand and all the ocean
fronts are kind of stacked up in the New Zealand part of the
world.

So what does that mean for us –
rainfall you’re talking about here?

That’s just in the ocean but when it comes to the
atmosphere the same is true. That the atmosphere is
subdivided so you’ve got a cold polar cell of circulation
around Antarctica and that boundary and the westerly wind
system comes across New Zealand and the westerly winds bring
our rainfall, certainly in the South Island. But that’s
the major contributor to rainfall in the South Island.

So our economy – fishing, farming, tourism
– how dependent is all of this on
Antarctica?

I mean most of it’s
dependent on primary industries so it’s all dependent on
the environment and it’s all dependent on ocean and
climate and in the long term those things are connected to
what’s driven out of Antarctica. In the short-term, we see
some impact from the north as well and the interaction
between the warm north and the cold south but in the long
term it’s the Antarctic that’s driving those longer term
trends.

What will those trends be? We
talk about one-in-one hundred year storms – that will
become potentially a storm a year? What are the
consequences?

I think the contribution
from Antarctica can be considered something of a baseline so
if you’re raising sea level, yes you might see incremental
rises in sea level of millimetres per year and centimetres
per decade but as you increase the sea level the storm
intensity and the ability of the storm to inundate coastal
areas of course is intensified. So that’s, the two go hand
in hand really.

So we know that the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed before so it’s conceivable
it could happen again. What is the best scientific guess for
if, and when that might happen again?

Well rather than guessing if we look back in geological
time, what we know is that the last time the Earth had a CO2
level of about 400 parts per million in the atmosphere, then
that was the end solution of a prolonged earth in that
state, was that the West Antarctic ice sheet retreated. In a
couple of years we’re in 400 parts per million, the
question then is –

So we’re heading
into the danger level is what you’re
saying?

We’re certainly heading into
the danger level but the question is what’s the pathway to
get there? Are we going to see incremental melting and
incremental increase in the climate warming if you like or
are there going to steps and changes and thresholds and
tipping points in that so that it kind of goes up in jerky
movements rather than just the straight line condition and
that’s the unanswered question. What’s that going to
look like.

So we have about a hundred
thousand New Zealanders who are living within I think it’s
three metres of the coastline and we’ve got a lot of
low-lying cities, all our airports seem to be right next to
the ocean. Even this week when we had a storm, a number of
the roads were covered in water because they’re right next
to the ocean so are we ready for the worst?

Well the short answer is no. We’re not ready. But the
real question is how do we get ready? And that’s where the
research comes in. It’s a question of you know, what are
the timeframes on this change, what can we work out about
how fast this change is going to happen. We kind of know the
end game, we don’t know the rates of getting there. So
really that’s where the research comes in. I’d like to
think that over the next, 10, 20 years we can actually get
some solid research in to be able to develop the policies
and plans around it.

But what can we do
now from what we know now?

I mean
there’s two answers to that. And one is you know one is
can we mitigate this or are we planning to adapt and I guess
we’re planning to adapt. But at some point we probably
want the world to take more notice because we’re a pretty
small emitter here and really New Zealand can play on the
international research stage and point out what it is
that’s so important about this part of the world and these
currents that we’re talking about, the westerly winds and
what does that mean globally, so that globally people take a
bit more attention, pay some attention

I
just want to pick up on what you said there, you said
we’re moving to adaption. So are we talking about life
behind sea walls or do we actually need to make some radical
changes like saying leave your car at home two days a week,
cap dairying or are we just accepting this is a fait
accompli and we’re just working with it.

Well, yeah, that’s an interesting question. I mean
–

What do you think
though?

We’re certainly committed to
a degree of change. We’re certainly committed to some
change at this point so it’s not good enough to just say
we can now mitigate the change because CO2 levels haven’t
actually leveled out in the atmosphere yet. They’re
climbing faster than ever. So we’re certainly committed to
seeing some change so we’re going to have to do some
adapting. We’re not going to be able to maintain some of
these coastal infrastructures and we’re going to have to
think about how we use our land.

So what
do you think of that Chuck? We’re accepting it, we’re
just going to tinker?

Well essentially
what Gary is saying, if we do not act we are committed to
the changes not only that we’re seeing but as I mentioned
accelerating changes and the only recourse at that point
will be adaption, which as you say, will be moving away from
coastal areas, sea walls, a number of ways of addressing the
change in climate and so it really becomes a matter of
public will. And are we willing to do things that really
impact our daily lives but solve these problems in the long
term and that’s really I think the political debate
that’s going on now.

I want to pick up
on willingness in the context that we know one of the
biggest drivers of our problems here is economic growth.
We’re getting millions of people out of poverty around the
world, through development, we’re feeding them our dairy
products at a massive rate, how do we balance that tension
between slowing climate change and bringing people’s lot
up?

There’s two assumptions there.
One is that economic growth is only realised at the cost of
environmental impact and I think that’s a sort of false
bargain. And so the question is, is future growth going to
follow the same trajectory that past growth has. A lot of
the technologies we currently use were really invented in
the 1950s, 1960s and as we go forward it’s not necessarily
the case that future economic growth is going to follow
using these same technologies and there’s a lot of effort
now to really reduce the per capita consumption of energy
which is the fundamental currency which drives climate
change. And if those technologies are put into place you can
have both economic growth at the same time as protecting the
environment. So I don’t think you necessarily have to sell
your future simply to have to raise the level of the economy
worldwide.

I want to just touch on
another issue, which is resources. We know that there’s a
treaty aimed at protecting Antarctica but isn’t one of the
big issues when it comes to this part of the world, mining
and resources and a potential rush for those
goodies?

That’s another very good
question. The Antarctic Treaty has been in force for about
50 years, a little over 50 years and New Zealand has been a
very active member in making sure that the Antarctic is
managed in a ways, manner based on science. But going
forward though is as we have this increasing demand for
resources worldwide, will the Antarctic Treaty be stable
enough to be able to manage those types of changes and
it’s not clear.

The Chinese have
already said that they’re looking at science there in
order to, and this is a quote from the president, take
advantage of ocean and polar resources. That sounds like
more than just gathering information?

Yes, and that’s correct. If you look at the history of
Antarctica, science is only one aspect of why people are in
Antarctica. It’s also geopolitical as well as resource
based and there’s many countries out there – China,
including Russia – who have a clear eye on the natural
resources not only oil and gas, fisheries and
bio-prospecting and the use of other resources. So again, it
comes back to the question of whether this international
agreement called the Antarctic Treaty will be able to
mediate those types of pressures going into the future.

Key’s endorsement of English has turned this “contest” into a race for second place.

This succession was well planned. Lets not forget that English was told by Key in September of his intention to resign, and English was the only member of Cabinet entrusted with that information before it was sprung on everyone else on Monday morning. More>>

Latest: Judith Collins and Jonathan Coleman have withdrawn from the leadership race, leaving Bill English the only candidate to replace John Key as Prime Minister.

The New Zealand Dental Association is launching a new consensus statement on Sugary Drinks endorsed by key health organisations. The actions seek to reduce harm caused by sugary drinks consumption. More>>

The Government Communications Security Bureau wants to give internet service providers more information and power to block cyber threats which are increasing, its director told the intelligence and security select committee yesterday.. More>>

ALSO:

Labour: NCEA results for charter schools have been massively overstated... In one case a school reported a 93.3 per cent pass rate when the facts show only 6.7 per cent of leavers achieved NCEA level two. More>>

Following a complaint by Mr Leask, the Ombudsman found that the State Services Commission acted unreasonably in relation to Mr Leask and identified numerous deficiencies in the investigation process and in the publication of the final report and in the criticisms it contained of Mr Leask... More>>

NZEI: New Zealand had only held relatively steady in international rankings in some areas because the average achievement for several other OECD countries had lowered the OECD average -- not because our student achievement has improved. More>>

The resignation of John Key is one thing. The way that Key and his deputy Bill English have screwed the scrum on the leadership succession vote (due on December 12) is something else again. It remains to be seen whether the party caucus – ie, the ambitious likes of Steven Joyce, Judith Collins, Paula Bennett, and Amy Adams – will simply roll over... More>>