December 11, 2016

In my post yesterday, I neglected to mention one of the high points of my Armada experience last season:The team hosting and winning a US Open Cup match, which set up a game against visiting Major League Soccer side Orlando City. Played in the immediate wake of the Pulse Nightclub shooting, with a healthy amount of traveling supporters, it was a great evening of togetherness. On the field, the Armada put up a good fight, and held the scoreline even for an hour before conceding the winning goal. A good night of action on the field and a great night in the stands. It was a night enjoyed by only 2,055 fans, alas.

A scarf that was a give-away on the Armada’s Pride Night, roughly one month before the Orlando City match. In the wake of the Pulse nightclub shootings, Armada fans who managed to snag one of these (plus one of the limited number of tickets to the match) wore it to the game. After the match, an Orlando City fan offered to trade his scarf for this one; an offer I selfishly declined.

Allow me a slight digression as I review what lead to that night (I feel obliged to point these matters out and regret not having done so at some earlier point). The US Open Cup is a tournament for all of the soccer teams in the United States. It starts with amateur teams and those of the lowest levels of professional soccer. As it progresses, teams from the top three levels of professional soccer (the United Soccer League, the Armada’s North American Soccer League, and MLS). Supporters of non-MLS teams dream of their team slaying giants and accumulating upsets against the teams from the league’s higher up the ladder than their own.

Armada fans did not come close to realizing that dream last year. Fielding a mostly second-string team, the Armada traveled to USL side Richmond Kickers and got stomped 3-0 (trust me, the scoreline does not come close to capturing how awful the game was for Jacksonville). It’s not clear whether the manager thought the second stringers would be enough to compete against lower level competition of he just didn’t care and was perfectly content to fall out of the tournament immediately. It was disappointing for fans though, as an Armada victory would have brought an MLS squad to town for the next round.

The memory stuck. During the Town Hall Forum with then newly hired coach Tony Meola, a fan inquired as to whether Meola would take the tournament seriously. The coach pledged to do so and in marked contrast with that of his predecessor, the line-up showed it. The Armada defeated a pesky Charleston Battery squad with a thrilling goal in extra time. As was the case in the previous season, fans and team knew that a victory in the opener would give the Armada the opportunity to host an MLS team. Having gotten the job done this time, the team got to host Orlando City.

So, we had one of the big boys coming to town. A chance for an upset against a team from the big league. A team close enough to Jacksonville for its supports to easily travel for the game, even with it being on a Wednesday night. This had all of the makings of a big event. And yet, there was no chance for it to be.

The current home of the Armada is the Baseball Grounds of Jacksonville (re-branded as Community First Park on Armada game-days). The primary tenant, of course, is the baseball team, AA side Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (formerly the Suns). As such, the soccer team’s scheduled home games are squeezed in-between the lengthy home-stands of the baseball team. Such an arrangement is not conducive for holding relatively “on-the-fly” events such as US Open Cup matches. Because of that, the matches were held at Jacksonville’s Southern Oak Stadium, an attractive, yet tiny facility. And that’s how there came to be only 2,055 fans to take in a night that ought to have been taken in 3-4 times as many, at least. The stadium situation is certainly one of the challenges for the Armada organization, going forward.

The current home, itself, is quite nice. It’s a stadium for a AA baseball team that was built to AAA standards. It is very well equipped in terms of concessions and is a pleasant place in which to watch a match. I haven’t been to any of the other stadiums belonging to NASL teams, but it does seem to be one of the nicer ones. It isn’t the only baseball stadium either, Tampa Bay (who has now departed the league, alas) plays in a converted baseball stadium as does Puerto Rico FC. The Armada isn’t the only team that has a home that isn’t quite its own, either as a few teams play on university grounds (ones significantly larger than that of Jacksonville University, one should note).

That said, it does seem to be a limitation for the growth and development of the team. Besides the issue of the primary tenant restricting availability of the stadium, its downtown location causes other events to affect the Armada’s games as well. A would-be Saturday night match against Minnesota United became a mid-afternoon match due to the Jaguars having a pre-season game on that night. The result was a match played lethargically in brutally hot conditions (the Armada supporters group Section 904 decamped from their usual haunt behind the east goal to the southwest corner of the pitch, located somewhat more comfortably in the shade.

Armada owner Mark Frisch made public remarks that playing at the Baseball Grounds would be a three year deal with the end goal being the Armada having a home of its own sometime after that. I’ve heard second-hand that in private remarks he’s said that he would want to have a consistent base of at least 5,000 fans before considering such a venture. While things were looking good for that to happen in the first year, things have since gone awry.

The Armada’s season ticket renewal campaign apparently went as well as the campaign of the Spanish Armada. The failure was apparently part of the reason for the firing of club president Mark Livingstone in early February. While the books show 8,147 fans attending the team’s 2015 opener at Community First Park (the season opener was at EverBank Field), they indicate only 5,112 in attendance for the 2016 opener. The same records show the 2015 low point for attendance being 5,652; 2016 did not have a high point that high.

A brief aside at this point. I will elaborate in a future post, but I am a fairly long-time soccer fan, but one who only re-immersed himself into the game a few years ago, with the 2014 World Cup and NBC Sports winning the Premier League contract being major factors. My earlier fandom was fairly shallow and I’ve come to realize that there were a lot of things that I didn’t know back then. The point of mentioning this is that there’s a lot of things going on that have a back-story longer than I’ve been closely following the game. I’ve done a fair bit of reading to fill in my (massive) knowledge gaps, but I will freely admit there are matters for which others will have (much) more informed opinions (such as judging the quality of play in the NASL).

The author has read a little bit about soccer doing the past two years.

The $64 question, whose answer I do not come remotely close to knowing, is the nature of the fans who attended games in the Armada’s debut season but did not show up in the second season. Let us consider a few possibilities:

Devoted soccer fans who are fans of the game, but do not feel a need to be attached to their local team. They might have found a little bit to like in the game-day experience, but didn’t find anything attractive to watch on the field. This is not a problem restricted to lower-level teams in the United States; it is a bit of a global issue. As the highest levels of play have become more accessible on television, some fans have gotten so accustomed to watching the high level of play that they cannot stand to watch anything that’s even a little bit lower. That is a tough fight for any team outside of the highest tiers football, one that is a bit of a fight for even Major League Soccer.

More casual fans of soccer, maybe even people who are mostly unfamiliar with the game. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, the team last year had a brutal stretch of scoreless play. On the field, there wasn’t much in the way of excitement to draw in and keep the uncommitted fan. Too many times, the games appeared to confirm the worst stereotypes of soccer.

Folks who fell somewhere in between who took spent their money elsewhere. It would be wholly unsurprising to find many took their money across the street (to EverBank Field) as there were wide expectations that this was going to be the break-out season for the Jaguars.

Of course, none of these possibilities are exclusive of one another. Without knowing the nature of those disappearing fans, though, it is a nearly impossible task to suggest a course of action for the Armada to get them back and solve this worrisome issue. There was a stretch during the late part of this season where attendance was clearly at a negative tipping point. When you have fewer than 3,000 people in a stadium that has a capacity three times greater, the atmosphere suffers, regardless of how lively the attending fans are. The Armada tried gamely to entice fans with various special ticket promotions; one fears that it started to verge on desperation and started to give an air to the public that the tickets couldn’t be given away.

Complicating matters for the Armada is the future of their league. Major League Soccer in one fashion or another (either by directly bringing in a NASL team or announcing a franchise in a NASL market) has severely squeezed the league from the top. Below, a few teams have recently fled NASL to USL. Throw in a couple of teams on financially shaky ground and the league is looking at having fewer than 8 teams playing next season. While the original NASL survived dropping to 5 teams before its growth in the 1970’s the landscape is completely different today and a repeat is unlikely.

To a great extent the issue of leagues is a conflict of visions. MLS has a distinctly American sports approach including looking to ultimately have the same number of teams as the NFL, et al. It appears that the USL is becoming subsumed as a minor league (in the sense of minor league baseball) counterpart to MLS. The NASL has tried a different approach, something closer to European soccer norms than American sports. For a number of reasons, I have found myself disliking the MLS outlook and preferring that of the NASL. It appears, though, that this battle is all but lost.

It now seems that the Armada’s immediate will be predicated on joining the USL. I hope that they do so without becoming a minor-league affiliate (I admit gross ignorance on the nature of the league; from my limited knowledge, I find it odd to have a league have both independent squads and ones that are developmental/reserve squads for MLS teams).

I will conclude with one final bit from the Orlando City match. Before the game, I was participated in a radio interview with a reporter who noticed my pride scarf. During the interview, I mentioned the Armada organization being a solid member of the Jacksonville community and one that I was proud to support. That remains true today and it is why I have felt compelled to write this post as well as yesterday’s.

December 10, 2016

A struggling Jacksonville team whose owner remains popular with fans as it faces hard questions about the future is an apt description of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is also true of Jacksonville Armada FC.

A successful early start upon the team’s debut last season, both on and off the field, faded as the months passed by. A three game scoring drought in July was followed by another one in September, which resulted in the manager’s firing. After finished the season under interim management, the team brought on former US National Team goalkeeper Tony Meola for the 2016 season.

As in the previous season, scoring droughts would weigh heavily on the Armada;464 scoreless minutes from late April to late May and one almost identical in July. The latter drought was broken in the midst of a Wednesday night 5-2 stomping that likely was the end for Meola (who coached one more game on the immediately following Saturday night before being sacked).

Another interim manager came aboard and he got results immediately. After failing in its first 25 attempts, the team finally won a game on the road (against Ottawa on August 13). A second road win came on October 1. Home fans had to subsist on the thin gruel of draws during this time, however, with three of those being scoreless.

After a wild and admittedly entertaining (in a gladiator/professional wrestling sort of way) loss to the New York Cosmos, the home fans finally got to applaud a win for the new coach, English-man Mark Lowry, who had shed the interim tag in early October. The season finished with a second home win for the Armada.

I have been with the team through all of this as a season-ticket owner. This is not the first time I’ve held season tickets for a Jacksonville team. Out of respect for how the Arena Football League re-organized itself, I purchased season tickets for the Jacksonville Sharks when they were first formed and held them for another season, when they won the Arena Bowl. Having been a fan of the Jaguars, but not necessarily one of Jack Del Rio or the franchise as it was being run under Wayne Weaver, I snapped up season tickets after the simultaneous departure of the coach and the arrival of the new owner (and availed myself of the option to lock in ticket prices for three years by committing to hold season tickets for that time period).

I bought my tickets fairly early on in the franchise; if I recall correctly it was within a few weeks after of the team name being announced in February of 2014. As I did with the Jaguars, I did so on a three year deal. My sister, Sara, is in the deal with me; at one point I think she was more excited about the venture than I was. At one point randomly during the World Cup, she said with a great deal of happiness “I am so glad we are going to have a soccer team to watch next year”.

All in all, low number of wins not withstanding, we have loved the experience. There hasn’t been a day where we’ve felt like going to the game was a chore vice a pleasant outing. Similarly, we have never departed a game with the feeling that we had a bad experience, again on-the field results notwithstanding. I am, of course, my season tickets for next year were already locked in. Even if they weren’t, though, my Sara I would have happily re-upped. We love Mark Lowry and it appears that the Armada are holding onto a nice core of players for next year. (At one point towards the end of Tony Meola’s tenure, it wasn’t uncommon to hear the fans around us complaining that they didn’t know any of the players on the field; all of their favorites were on the bench, seemingly without reason).

Sharp cutbacks took effect in August and September, when the Armada scaled back its game-day expenditures at the Baseball Grounds, stopped sending public relations employees for road games and slashed its budget for support staff.

The team was on the road from August 19th to September 24th. From that first game back, onward, there was a noticeable difference at the stadium. There were fewer people working the gates (making for a longer wait to enter the stadium) and a lack of attention to detail that wasn’t absent previously. For example, nearly all games featured some kind of give-away (usually a sponsor-backed scarf) to the first 1,000 fans through the gates. On one late-season occasion, we found 0 of the scarfs to be had when we came through the gate as it opened. After looking and waiting a couple of minutes, Sara hustled over to the main gate and managed to scrounge two scarves and alert staff to the fact that there weren’t any at the side-gate. On Fan Appreciation Day, $2 corndogs were advertised, but concession staff apparently hadn’t gotten the news; after going around the various stands in the stadium, Sara took to Twitter in frustration (and it was through that medium that she was assisted by the owner of the then Jacksonville Suns).

The author and his companion at Dogtoberfest – An event that didn’t get much in the way of promotion ahead of time.

As Freeman mentions in his article, attendance was not high this season. I am obligated though, to note that while it is true that”At the lowest point, the Armada drew just 1,254 on Oct. 12 against the Indy Eleven.”, that game was a Wednesday night game that was a reschedule of a game that was originally scheduled for the preceding Saturday night and delayed due to Hurricane Matthew. Just over 3,000 fans were in attendance for the aforementioned lively match against the Cosmos on the following Saturday. Over 4,500 attended the Season finale. It was a bit sad to have the season come to an end at that point, what with the team finally doing well and having a decent crowd to boot.

Unlike the previous ends of season (in the North American Soccer League, there are “Spring” & “Fall” seasons, I did not receive a Fan Experience survey. The remarks I have made hear about the late-season game-day experience would have been the meat of my substantive response (i..e written comments beyond the numerical ratings of how satisfied I was).

As featured in Freeman’s article, the Armada’s owner Mark Frisch has big challenges in front of him. I’ll reflect on those in a later post.

June 2, 2014

Yesterday marked the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and per custom, the National Hurricane Center posted their first Tropical Weather Outlook with the list of names that will be used this season along with their pronunciations. It has been my custom to provide a history of these names to suggest why a name may sound familiar and to show where the unfamiliar names came from.

This year’s list was first used in 1984. Nine original names have been retired, which is the second-most retired from the six lists. As is the case for half of the lists, the name beginning with the letter I has been replaced twice. There are five names original to the list which have not yet been used and three are new for 2014.

Arthur – Each time this name was used, it was in association with a tropical storm that did not become a hurricane. The 1984 edition was a weak tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles. The 1990 version was stronger and crossed into the Caribbean. In 1996, the storm named Arthur made landfall in North Carolina before curving back to sea. In 2002, the cyclone formed east of North Carolina and headed to Newfoundland. The 2008 version formed from the remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Arthur (a scenario which is in play at this moment in 2014) and made landfall in Belize.

Bertha – For Americans, this might be the most notorious name on the list. While the 1984 edition was a weak tropical storm at sea, 1990‘s Bertha was a category one hurricane that made landfall in Nova Scotia. In 1996, it was a major hurricane that made landfall in North Carolina as a category one (Particularly memorable for me as my father and I drove around the periphery of it post-landfall as we traveled from Tallahassee to Chesapeake, VA. A downed limb on US 17, east of the Great Dismal Swamp, caused a tire blow-out and quite the soaking for us when we changed the tire in the dark.) 2002‘s Bertha was a weak tropical storm that made landfall in southeast Louisiana while the 2008 iteration was the longest-lived and eastern-most forming July tropical cyclone on record.

Big Bertha

Cristobal – Replaced Cesar after 1996. The 2002 edition was a weak tropical storm at sea, while 2008‘s formed east of North Carolina and traveled northeast.

Dolly – Replaced Diana after 1990. The inaugural edition made landfall in Mexico as a category 1 hurricane in 1996. In 2002, it was a tropical storm at sea, while in 2008 it was a landfalling hurricane once again; this time on the Yucatan Peninsula and south Texas.

Edouard – In 1984, the storm had a quick life and death in the Bay of Campeche. In 1990, it was a tropical storm that meandered around the Azores. It was the strongest hurricane (category four) of the 1996 season and threatened New England before curving away. The 2002 edition made landfall in Ormond Beach, Florida as a tropical storm while 2008‘s struck Texas.

Fay – Replaced Fran after 1996. Both editions since have been landfalling tropical storms. 2002‘s hit near Matagorda, Texas. In 2008, the storm crossed over Hispanola and Cuba before making four landfalls in Florida (at Key West, Naples, Flagler Beach, and Carabelle).

Fay liked Florida

Gonzalo – We finally reach one of the new names. It is the replacement for Gustav.

Hanna – Replaced Hortense after 1996. In 2002, it was a tropical storm with landfalls at the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Alabama/Mississippi border. The 2008 hurricane made landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border and worsened flooding in Haiti, which had already been affected by Fay and Gustav. Were it not for the latter, the name Hanna likely would have been retired.

Isaias – New for 2014, this name replaces Ike, which replaced Isidore after 2002.

Josephine – It is pretty unusual to have a name this deep in the list that is both original and has been used every time, but here we are. In 1984, it was a category two hurricane at sea, while 1990‘s was a category one. The 1996 tropical storm tracked east across the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in an uninhabited part of Taylor County, Florida. The 2002 and 2008 versions were tropical storms at sea (though remnants of the latter did bring flooding to St Croix).

Kyle – Replaced Klaus after 1990. In 1996, it was a short-lived tropical storm off the coast of Central America. In 2002, it was a wayward hurricane that ultimately hit the Carolinas while curving to the northeast and subsequently absorbed by a cold front. The 2008 edition was also a hurricane and made landfall near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia.

Laura – Replaced Lili after 2002. It was a north Atlantic tropical storm in 2008.

Marco – It was the only tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States (near Cedar Key, Florida) in 1990. It was a wayward hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in 1996. The 2008 version was a small tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche.

Nana – 1990 marked the first time that a storm name starting with the letter N made an appearance; it was a hurricane at sea. The 2008 version was a short-lived tropical storm at sea.

Omar – In 2008, it was a category four hurricane, which formed in the Caribbean Sea and moved to the northeast before eventually dissipating west of the Azores.

August 25, 2013

The Atlantic hurricane season has been, by the reckoning of most, been very quiet. This feeling is to some extent exacerbated by the unanimous predictions of above average activity that preceded the season’s start. Some people may argue against this notion by pointing out that having four named storms in the book before the end of August connotates a season that is anything but quiet; indeed that was significantly ahead of the climatological norm. However, in terms of aggregate activity, the Atlantic basin has been rather exceptionally lacking in activity. Interestingly, by similar measures so its western hemisphere counterpart has not been notably active, either. The tranquility in the Atlantic is set to end soon.

While there have been five tropical storms in the Atlantic so far this year, none have sustained that status for more than three days or have come very close to being a hurricane. As such, they don’t add up to much in terms of aggregate activity. One measure of this is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). It is calculated by squaring the maximum wind speed of a tropical storm/hurricane at the six hour “synoptic time” intervals. The number is made manageable by dividing by 10,000 and while the resulting unit is technically knots2,, the reduced number is referred to simply as a unit of ACE. To understand the numbers, it is helpful to remember that a 50 knot tropical storm persisting for one day generates 1 unit of ACE while a major hurricane with maximum wind speed of 100 knots generates 1 unit of ACE every six hours, 4 units per day.

As I write this, the Atlantic hurricane season only has roughly 7.6 units of ACE to its name. The year-to-date normal is 23 units. Again, the short-lived nature of the tropical storms not to mention the absence of hurricanes, let alone major ones, is to account for this. Having such a low sum this deep into the season is not without precedent, even during the post-1994 active period. At this point in 2002, the season just had 3 units in the books and 2001 had just fewer than 9. Such low figures were more normal in the 1981-1994 time-frame; as 1984 did not see a tropical storm until August 29, it had 0 units at this time.

Often times, a lack of activity in the Atlantic is off-set by high activity in the Pacific. Such was the case in 1984 when five major hurricanes had formed in the eastern Pacific before the calendar turned to September; 71 units of ACE to its credit going into the final week of August. During the active period of the Atlantic basin, such inequities exist during the El Niño Seasonal Oscillation, which tends to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic while enhancing that of the Pacific. Some times the El Niño is readily apparent in the amount of eastern Pacific activity, as was the case in 2006, when the first ever (and to date, only) Central Pacific category 5 hurricane, Ioke, helped contribute to a whopping 90 units of ACE being tallied before the final week of August.

One of a kind

2013 does not fit into that paradigm, however. Rather than El Niño, we have what some jokingly call “La Nada”, the oscillation is in a neutral state that does not favor either the west Atlantic or easter Pacific basin. Furthermore, while the eastern Pacific has featured six hurricanes so far, none have became major hurricanes. It is the furthest we have gone into the season without a major hurricane in the western hemispher since 2003 when Fabian, the third hurricane of that season, attained major status on August 30th. Going back to the beginning of reliable records for the eastern Pacific basin, the latest date for the first major hurricane in either basin is September 7th (Floyd, 1981). Combined the two basins have accounted for 53 units of ACE, the fifth lowest total since 1980.

Using that season to date figure to try to predict the future is no straight-forward; wide variations in the spacing of activity make many seasons “front-loaded” or “back-loaded” with activity relative to the present. Also, there is a wide range of variation across the seasonal sums of ACE for both basins. There is no “magic number” that is guaranteed to be the total for any given season. While the two basins tend to compensate for each other and have a stable average total over the long term, that relationship is only clear over the long term. I will, however, proceed cautiously in presenting those seasons with comparably low levels of activity in both basins to give a sense of what may be expected for the rest of the season:

Season

Atlantic ACE pre
Aug 25

Pacific ACE pre
Aug 25

Combined pre
August 25

Atlantic total for
season

2001

8.89

29.1625

38.025

106

2003

20.485

18.245

38.73

175

2002

3.345

41.66

45.005

67

1981

9.9625

37.1975

47.16

93

2013

7.6525

45.81

53.4625

???

Despite the average-below average starts to these four seasons, the only to finish distinctly below-average in terms of ACE was 2002, a season in which moderate El Niño conditions were present.** 1981 is a perfect fit for NOAA’s definition of a season with average activity (but was a busy season by 1980’s standards). 2003 had three hurricanes at this point, but three major hurricanes were yet to come. The director of the National Hurricane Center, Rick Knabb, tweeted about the 2001 hurricane season a few days ago. The first hurricane, Erin, did not arrive until September 9th but the season ended with four major hurricanes in the ledger.

I suspect 2013 will bear resemblance to 2001. Doing so would put the season in line with the pre-season predictions for storm numbers, albeit with a bit lower ACE than anticipated. While we had a bit of a false alarm a bit over a week ago ***, it appears that the turn of the season is upon us and activity is about to pick up substantially. Forecast models are indicating that a tropical wave currently exiting Africa may become a tropical cyclone in five to six days time in the deep tropical Atlantic, approximately 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This afternoon’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center gives the wave a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days. Given the time of year, such a system would have to monitored closely due its relative close-in development. Furthermore, the GFS model is currently showing development of the subsequent wave as well.

Future storms?

If one had to summarize the reason for the quiet season to date in one graphic, it would be hard to do better than this:

The graphic comes from NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product. As vertical instability is a necessary component of formation and maintenance of tropical cyclones, it is one of the key data inputs for the product. As the graphic shows, instability in the tropical Atlantic has been below normal for the entirety of the season. Its relative absence has been a key factor in the shortened lives of Tropical Storms Dorian and Erin as well as the lack of additional tropical cyclone formation. While it has not yet reached a climatologically normal level, it is as high as it’s been all season.

While I have been composing this post, the sixth tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the Bay of Campeche. A WC-130 is en-route to determine whether it is a tropical storm. I cannot help but be reminded of what I call the “phony season” part of the 2005 hurricane season. From mid-July to mid-August there was a succession of insignificant storms, which mostly struggled in hostile conditions in the tropical Atlantic. The last of those was the tropical cyclone that seemed poised for development, Tropical Depression Ten. About a week later, a tropical storm, Jose. similar to our newly formed Tropical Depression Six, formed in the Bay of Campeche and the real season was back with a vengeance****. Hostile conditions do not last forever.

Will we have our first major hurricane landfall since Wilma in that season without equal? Will we see our first category five hurricane since Felix, nearly six years ago? Those are questions for which we will have to wait for the answers. While we are free to hope that the balance of the season passes without incident, such an occurrence is not probable. We must be prepared.

** Mind you, below-average ACE does not necessarily equate to a quiet season as victims of Hurricanes Isidore and Lili will attest.

*** See, for example, the Colorado State University forecast team’s prediction for tropical cyclone activity from August 16 to August 29. Anticipating development of Invests 92 and 94 as well as Erin being longer-lived, the forecast called for above average levels of ACE for the two week forecast period. That forecast will go down as big bust.

**** Jose, of course, is the name that Tropical Depression Ten would have received had it become a tropical storm. And there was a time when it appeared the remnant bits, future Tropical Depression Twelve / Katrina, would get that name. Great example of the hazard of bandying about a name for a disturbance or tropical depression before the name is actually earned.

July 31, 2013

A perhaps under-appreciated bit of progress made in computer modeling with regards to tropical cyclones is how accurate they’ve become in forecasting development of some types of disturbances well in advance. Over the past decade, dynamic models have forecast tropical cyclogenesis farther in the future, sometimes before the spawning disturbance is even in the Atlantic Ocean, and crucially, with fewer false positives. Tomorrow, the National Hurricane Center will avail itself in these advances when they release their first Tropical Weather Outlook that covers a five-day period. For the first time, the NHC’s four-times a day guidance on which disturbances are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development will extend beyond 48 hours. It is a part of an evolution that’s been ongoing for just over a decade. The evolution has given greater clarity to the Hurricane Center’s thoughts on the probability of development.

Let us remind ourselves of the form that the Tropical Weather Outlook had for most of the decades of its existence. The following paragraphs are taken from the nominal 5 PM Outlook on Monday, August 22, 2005 and the forecaster was future NHC director Rick Knabb:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 525 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED… BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS… AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN… AND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE… TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

In this format, the outlooks made an effort to communicate what the forecaster’s thoughts were on the potential for development. Admittedly though, the wording could be “fuzzy” at times, and it required a close reading on a 6 hour basis to sniff out changes in wording that may have indicated the forecaster thinking more highly of the system’s future prospects. We’ll continue with the system mentioned in the third paragraph as an example on how the wording would change as development occurred:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

So, we’ve gone from “development should be slow to occur” to “gradual development is possible”. This is an example of a subtle change where it would be hard for the average person to discern whether this was merely re-wording or a slight change in thinking.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY…
WHICH IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN…HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON…IF NECESSARY

Now, “additional development is possible”. Certainly an upgrade based on existing circumstances. Seems like we’re getting closer to something happening, but how close?

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS… AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS… AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS…
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA…AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Now it’s clear that we’re real close. No ambiguity in “a tropical depression could form later today…” And that was indeed the case

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE… LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

The new tropical depression

Four days later

(For those wondering about the fate of the other disturbance mentioned in the first Outlook from which I quoted, it would go on to be mentioned in Outlooks for the entire lifespan of Katrina, with the last mention coming almost exactly a week later stating that associated shower activity had diminished. It ran nearly the entire gamut of phrasing.)

The Outlooks quoted above were part of a study conducted to assess the feasibility of incorporating categorical probability (low, medium, high chance) of development into the Tropical Weather Outlook. As detailed in a paper presented at the American Meteorological Society’s 2008 Hurricane Conference, “Verification of the National Hurricane Center’s Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts“, the study showed potential for the idea and it was tested in-house during the 2007 season, (which happened to be the first year of the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, then in experimental form). The testing demonstrated that the idea would work and it was subsequently incorporated into the 2008 Outlooks and continued their form in 2009.

Ana foretold

Over time. in-house forecasting using explicit 10% increments (rather than low, medium, and high categories) showed enough refinement that the 2010 Outlooks used the percentages. As explained in the 2010 season verification report (section four), forecasts were well calibrated for the high and low end percentages, but there was an inversion in the middle range (a greater percentage of systems with a 40% chance of development actually developed than those with a 70% chance). The summary of 2007-2010 forecasts reflected some of that calibration issue, but overall the forecasts matched up well.

So, the forecasters were making progress with the product they had in its current scope, but it was becoming clear that potential existed to broaden that scope. Hurricane Julia of 2010 provided an example of forecast models providing accurate guidance outside of the bounds of the Tropical Weather Outlook;

The genesis of Julia was not well anticipated. The disturbance that became Julia was introduced into the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) with a medium (30%) chance of formation
only 18 h before the system became a tropical cyclone. This prediction was raised to a high (70%) chance 6 h before genesis occurred. The lateness in mentioning the disturbance that spawned Julia may have been due to the typical operational practice of not introducing an African wave disturbance into the TWO until it reaches the Atlantic Ocean. In this case, the disturbance developed into a tropical cyclone only about one day after leaving the West African coast. It is of note that many of the global model forecasts successfully called for the genesis of Julia up to several days in advance.

Julia was not a solitary case. While there were certainly instances of “quick-draw” development not foreseen by the models, they were proving to be adept at the “classical” mode of development, the Cape Verde storm. The NHC was aware of this and had started performance of 5-day Outlooks that were kept in house and results were reported at the 2012 AMS Hurricane Conference (“Extended-range genesis forecasts at the National Hurricane Center” recorded presentation). The results start being shown about five minutes into the presentation and the presenter, NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake explained that one issue they saw with the extended part of the forecasts (days 3-5) was that many systems that were given a mid-range probability of developing during that time period actually developed earlier (in the 1-2 day timeframe). 25% of systems in that 40%-60% range failed to ever develop. However, they were all systems that would go on to be in the short-range outlook; they weren’t phantom systems. Once upon a time, the prevalence of “boguscanes” in the models was such that this would have been a difficult feat to achieve.

The presentation went on to show the results for the eastern Pacific basin, interestingly, even though forecasters were aware of their tendency to under-estimate the probability of development (and Blake said that he had started to take that tendency into consideration and adjusting his forecasts accordingly) there was still an under-forecasting bias in that basin. At the 9:45 mark he shows a comparison of the short-term and extended term forecasts for each storm in the 2010 season. One sees that the in-house Outlooks containing Julia picked up on the potential for development four days in advance and that Lisa was another storm seen well in advance.

The work continued and before this season began, the NHC had announced that 5 day Outlooks would become public at some point in this season. A presentation of the 5 day outlooks was made at the 2013 National Hurricane Conference. The outlooks will give the usual write-up and 0-48 hour percentage chance of development for existing systems and have a separate section for systems that exist/are only in the extended time-frame and have a near 0% chance of developing in the short term. Blake’s presentation touched on some of the issues with a graphical presentation (e.g. how to handle systems that overlap) and it appears those have not been fully resolved yet; the announcement of the August 1 debut of the extended Tropical Weather Outlook states that the accompanying graphic is under development and “may become available later this season”.

This new product represents a great deal of progress that has been made in forecasting tropical cyclogenesis. A great deal remains, however. Two customers that expressed interest in these extended outlooks, the oil services industry and the US Navy, might be disappointed, in the near term, at least. While the models have shown increased skill in anticipating storms in the deep tropics, the Gulf of Mexico and sub-tropics remain a trouble spot. The former, of course, being the location of interest for the oil business and the latter being relevant due to the Navy owing to the massive Norfolk Naval Station. It is doubtful that either will find great value in having extra notice of a storm that’s ten days to two weeks out at sea.

The National Hurricane Center and researchers will work aggressively on that problem, of course. This is but one part of their efforts to improve and expand the scope of forecasting. 7-day forecasts, with the accuracy of 4-5 day forecasts from a decade ago are another example of in-house work that is being prepared for future public consumption.

UPDATED 8 AM AUGUST 1

For the historical record, here are the first 5 day Outlooks

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 1 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 MPH
AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...USE LOWER
CASE...
http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
FORECASTER AVILA
ABNT20 KNHC 011132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...USE LOWER
CASE...
http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

The disturbance mentioned in the Pacific Outlook is Invest 90, which is east-southeast of Hurricane Gil.

The Atlantic is quiet at this time and, as indicated by the Outlook, apparently for the foreseeable future. Note that there is a large outbreak of dust from Africa spreading across the tropics. But even before the dust storm, there wasn’t much of anything in the tropics. Go back three or four days and there was the remnants of Dorian and… not much of anything else. That’s not to say “and the usual assortment of tropical waves”. There was one wave just west of the Cape Verde Islands that was already sparse on convection before it was consumed by the dust surge. Now, there isn’t anything in the path of the dust to mow down or suppress. As Michael Watkins said in his tweets that were included in Brendan Loy’s post, the dust surges are annual occurrences and their suppressing effects are temporal. Furthermore, the suppressing effects of the Saharan Air Layer are a matter of debate. From the conclusion of “Reevaluating the Role of the Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution“, a paper published in the June 2010 issue of the Monthly Weather Review:

The results of this study suggest that the SAL has perhaps been overemphasized by some in the
research community as a major negative inﬂuence on tropical cyclone genesis and evolution.
In fact, the evidence appears to be more to the contrary in that the Sahara is the
source of the AEJ, which acts as both a source of energy for AEWs and a source of strong
background cyclonic vorticity, and there is evidence of a positive inﬂuence through an induced
vertical circulation associated with the AEJ. To the extent that the SAL may be a negative
inﬂuence on storm evolution, one must recognize that the SAL is just one of many factors
inﬂuencing tropical cyclogenesis and evolution in the Atlantic. Each storm must be examined
carefully within the context of the larger-scale wind and thermodynamic ﬁelds (either from
global analyses or satellite data), particularly in terms of other sources of vertical wind shear
and dry air (i.e.,subsidence drying versus warming over the Sahara).

As such, it’s fair to say that it’s quiet in the Atlantic and that the SAL is the predominant feature at the moment. It may be a stretch, however, to say it is quiet because of the SAL.

Remnants of remnants and a whole bunch of dust.

UPDATED 11:00 AM August 3

Early verification of the first 5 day outlooks… the disturbance mentioned in the Pacific Outlook became Tropical Depression Eight, at this time. In the Atlantic, the remnants of Dorian were first mentioned in the 2:00 PM Outlook on August 1, with a 20% chance of development. Subsequent Outlooks took it up to 30%, then 40%, back to 30%, then jumped up to 50% in the 8:00 PM Outlook on Friday and then to 60% in the following forecast. At 5:00 AM today, the National Hurricane Center resumed advisories on Dorian as a tropical depression. The revival is expected to be quite brief, with the depression forecast to become a remnant low tonight.

June 10, 2013

I don’t read Communist publications very often, but when I do, I read about hurricanes.

While putting together last year’s hurricane season forecast compilation, I spent some time hunting for the primary source for the Cuban forecast. While I did not succeed in doing so, I did manage to find a gem of a column in Granma, the daily newspaper of the Communist Party of Cuba. Written by the head forecaster of Cuba’s weather service, Doctor Jose Rubiera, the article reminds its readers of the limitations of hurricane season forecasts. While I’ve seen National Hurricane Center directors and other such officials make some of the same points when they are quoted in articles reporting the release of a new season forecast, I’ve never seen anyone explain the matter in a direct manner as was done in this piece. Because of that, I found it worth the time to translate the column (a copy of which can be found in the original Spanish, here); any awkwardness is the product of my rusty translation skills.

The Hurricane Season Forecast in its Proper Place

When each new hurricane season draws near, and with it a new “Weather Exercise” *, everyone wants to know the forecast of hurricane activity that is expected for the season. In the National Forecasts Center of the Institute of Meteorology of our county, forecasts of hurricane activity in the Atlantic started to come out in 1996, the end product of a research project led by the researcher Doctor Maritza Ballester.

In the United States, the University of Colorado (sic) also puts one out as does the official weather service of that country, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The foreign media promotes these forecasts in a sensationalist manner, especially when the forecast calls for a high level of activity in the Atlantic.

It is precisely the massive disclosure of these seasonal forecasts, very different in essence from daily weather forecasts, along with very little explanation regarding what it’s really meant to say and its practical value, that promotes skepticism and frequent criticism of these forecasts.

It is easy for one to notice in a season that was forecast to be active, not a single hurricane affects land and thus think that the forecast was erroneous, when its actual meaning is different. Thus, with this article I wish to demystify a bit and also put in the place it belongs, the seasonal forecasts of hurricanes, for the purpose of better understanding.

The true value of the studies for the forecast of hurricane season lies in the science contained within, that is, the cognitive value of the study and unlocking the secrets of the oceanic-atmospheric conditions that are favorable or not to the appearance and development of tropical cyclones, and with that, an idea of the probability of hurricane activity.

Nonetheless, the practical value of the seasonal forecasts for the common person, their interests as such, is very limited, as they cannot say so many months beforehand (and nobody on earth can do it), where a storm’s path will be, nor of what force it will strike, how much rain it will bring, etc.

So, in practice, no one should use this type for forecast for themselves. It is only possible to know if there will be more or less tropical cyclones or hurricanes in all of the Atlantic, only this is attempted. Notice that in the large Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, there is a vast area that covers Cuba a thousand times over and a city or a specific point, perhaps millions of times.

In the practical sense, having an active, normal, or inactive season means little while the science cannot say exactly months in advance where, when, and at what force. I am going to give the example of the hurricane season forecast for 2012, put out a few days ago:

“The hurricane season will have normal to below normal activity. The formation of 10 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) is forecast, in all of the North Atlantic., 5 of which will reach hurricane strength. In the Atlantic Ocean region, eight tropical cyclones should develop, one would be in the Caribbean, and another in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of a hurricane forming or intensifying in the Caribbean is low (15%) while that of a pre-existing one from the Atlantic entering the Caribbean (55%) is moderate.”

This assessment is based on the matter of fact that the existence and development of an El Niño in the summer months was forecast and these events produce strong winds at heights of 10-12 kilometers that cuts any incipient cyclone circulation and for this reason, inhibits formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, though some manage to form. **

Moreover, the waters of the eastern Atlantic are colder than normal, another factor that is unfavorable for hurricane activity. Research has shown these links, equal with others, whereas a statistical relationship and analogy with other seasons, produces the numbers released.

Nonetheless, see that just one hurricane, only one, passing through whatever location is enough for its residents to think the season is very active (and for them it is, in reality). examples abound, but I’m going to give only two. The hurricane season of 1930 was very inactive such that there was just one hurricane in the Caribbean… But that was of such great strength that it completely destroyed Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic. Another example. The 1992 season was also inactive, only four hurricanes, but one was Andrew, a category 5 that devastated south Florida, United States.

There can also be the case of very active hurricane seasons, like those of 2010 and 2011 with 18 and 19 tropical cyclones respectively (the average or normal for a season is 10) or even better the very active season of 1995, which equaled the 20th century record with 21 cyclones, but in none of these seasons did Cuba have a hurricane.

To summarize, the Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast indisputably has scientific value, to study the general conditions for formation and development of tropical cyclones, while supplying a probabilistic tool for certain activity; but it does not have a practical value for the general public as it cannot show with such advance notice the details that appear in the short-term forecasts that we always offer in the Early Alerts and the Tropical Cyclone Advisories.

The recommendation is that if you want to know the season forecast, there’s nothing wrong with that, just always interpret it for what it is, a measure of general hurricane activity, but when there is a tropical storm or hurricane already out there, everyone should be up-to-date on its path, evolution, and development via the radio and television and follow the guidance of our Civil Defense. This is the practical information that is truly valuable for effectively dealing with the threat of a hurricane.

* A annual two day hurricane readiness exercise conducted in Cuba prior to the start of the hurricane season. Spanish speakers can read the government’s description of the “Ejercicio Meteoro” here

** As one can see from reading the ENSO section of the verification of Colorado State’s 2012 hurricane season forecast, or any other season review, the Cubans were far from the only ones to think that an El Niño was going to develop. However, they did seem to put more weight on the probability of its formation than other forecasters did, hence the near 100% under-forecast of storm numbers.

June 5, 2013

With the entire hurricane season up to this point having passed with Tropical Weather Outlooks mentioning the possibility of its appearance, the first tropical cyclone of the season, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed late this afternoon.

It’s pronounced Ann- dree uh.

While some forecast models hinted at the probability of the storm’s formation, it was never a sure thing due to relatively inhospitable atmospheric conditions; as late as 2 PM this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance “only” a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Large totals of rainfall is the one thing that was a dead cert. Below is the anticipated rainfall totals for the next 48 hours, as forecast by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center:

Water, water, everywhere; you may drink it if you like.

In the course of the past fifteen years in Florida, going back to the memorable summer of 1998, when ash on one’s car was a common sight and the Firecracker 400 was postponed to October due to wildfires, there have been many Junes in which residents have been dreaming of a scenario such as this. Alas, this is not one of them. For once, northeast Florida went into Summer with a normal amount of rainfall for the year, albeit unevenly distributed. Golf fans may recall that a month ago the iconic 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass was flooded. And that was not a particularly unique spot for flooding. Parts of rural Clay County (south-southwest of metropolitan Jacksonville), which thought they had seen the worst possible flooding last year in the wake of Tropical Storm Debby, found themselves facing even worse flooding. (A nice break-down of the heavy rain event can be found here). That event, combined with rain in advance of Andrea, creates a bit of a tricky situation for northern Florida. Fortunately, thanks to the recent experience with that event as well as Debby, people in the threatened areas should not find themselves surprised if/when flooding occurs. As was the case with Debby and (in a surprise) the nor’easter, the possiblityy of isolated tornadoes exists.