I'm not touching a QB that can't read real defenses in the top 5 unless he has physical tools that make jaws drop.

Geno Smith is a 3rd rounder in most draft classes. He's mediocre at almost everything, but people are blinded by the numbers he's putting up in a high school offense.

I just hope WV gets to play a good defense before the year is over (lol@Texas). If they play LSU in a bowl game and Geno doesn't look like ****, then maybe I'll change my mind.

I think Kansas State is a good test tonight. They're defense is very good, but I do agree. Big 12 defenses are really rare to find in terms of good and solid. Texas Tech really wasn't a good defense, as they didn't play any one really. People will make the argument they had the #2 pass defense. But who'd they play? They're not 49-14 good.

Geno Smith, many will forget, as many will start nit-picking his game just as much as they do to Matt Barkley's. Look at the talent. Bailey and Austin are explosive WRs that do turn a lot of slants and crossing patters into scores. Lot of YAC for those WV Wrs.

I still think Geno Smith is a 1st round pick, but there still, IMO, is no sure fire #1 QB prospect. I think between Smith/Barkley/Wilson, it's a toss up and all probably will be picked with in the top 12-15 picks, maybe higher.

The problem is that if you watch Smith on tape, he stares down his primary target for the entire play before he has a chance to throw there, so it's difficult to say how well he diagnoses defenses.

That's my biggest issue.

I see people talk about how good he is going through a progression and then I turn on the WVU games to see if I can see it, too. Then I see bubble screens, crossing routes (where he just waits for the route to come open), and the like.

The other issue is what he does under pressure. His accuracy and all of that goes way down. It's hard to find tape of him under pressure, because they run so many screens, he as a quick release, and his line is actually pretty good... but when he's not allowed to have his receivers run triple moves, he does struggle.

I don't think people realize how simple the WV offense is either. It has two fundamental concepts. ZR running plays and a predetermined passing attack.

The ZR stuff has been discussed ad nasium, but the passing hasn't. Basically, they have a few base formations. They pick one, line up, and then the coaches see how the defense is lined up. They have a bunch of coaches signaling in stuff for everyone (everything from blocking to routes to progressions). Once the play is set, the ball is snapped.

It's done this way to hide dumb QBs (not saying Geno is) who are just too athletically talented to not have on the field.

When those kinds of guys get to the NFL, it goes from not calling plays (or plays being 2-3 syllables) to plays taking 10 seconds to say and every part of that means something. And quite frankly, every word of that play means an additional responsibility for the QB, which is why most of those guys never make it in the NFL.

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I was gone for 2 months doing things I can't talk about. It might happen again, but that's just the nature of what I do and who I am.

The problem is that if you watch Smith on tape, he stares down his primary target for the entire play before he has a chance to throw there, so it's difficult to say how well he diagnoses defenses.

The other problem is a ton of his gaudy stats come from YAC accrued after short crossing patterns or screens.

I was watching one of the CFB shows on ESPNU and Jason Sehorn was talking about Johnny Manziel and how he plays in the same system as Case Keenum who put up huge numbers. No one seems to talk about the fact that Smith plays in the exact same system as all of those prolific Texas Tech/Houston/Ok St/Baylor QBs -all those coaches including Holgersen are from the Leach coaching tree and all QBs put up ridiculous numbers.

You don't have Smith's level of production the last three years because he doesn't come off his #1 WR or lacks the discipline to go through his progressions.

I see a guy who will readily come off his #1 read and throw hot or short.

Geno IMO looks to throw long many times during a game, and in those instances yes he is locked. But he also can move safeties off double coverage to allow his man to get open.

The first part of that statement is a logical fallacy. Look at other Holgorsen products who had Smith's level of production: Graham Harrell, Cody Hodges, Case Keenum, etc. Smith is locked onto his top guy on the vast majority of throws, and really struggles if that player doesn't get open. He takes forever to through secondary progressions.

The first part of that statement is a logical fallacy. Look at other Holgorsen products who had Smith's level of production: Graham Harrell, Cody Hodges, Case Keenum, etc. Smith is locked onto his top guy on the vast majority of throws, and really struggles if that player doesn't get open. He takes forever to through secondary progressions.

I don't see Harrell/Hodges/Keenum etc. when I watch Geno Smith play.
Do you??
In terms of arm strength, not even close. Those guys aren't on the same planet as Geno.
Yes the 'Air Raid' offense thrives off YAC, screens and three to five yard hitch routes. But the Mountaineers also ask Smith to drill 25 yard sideline outs and split double coverage on seam routes. Basically Smith is asked to throw the ball to all three levels of the football field and he's done so with ease.

WVU didn't lose to TT because Smith had a particularly bad game. When TT took away Bailey and Austin, their other WRs couldn't step up. It wasn't as if Geno had a meltdown.

The Air Raid offense is the same offense that produced RGIII and he's shown so far his ranking as a pure NFL prospect wasn't a fluke of a gimmick offensive scheme in college.
EIther you see a top NFL QB prospect when Geno Smith plays, or you don't.

If you think he's the byproduct of a gimmick offense and resembles the next Harrell or Casey Keenum, that's all there is to it.

But whenever I personally watch Geno Smith play, I come away impressed with his decision making and the repertoire of throws he's able to make, and his accuracy.

Also the reason I believe very few college Air Raid QBs have found success in the NFL is because almost none of them were considered top QB prospects coming out of HS, meaning they were never that talented to start with IMO.

The offense IMO isn't designed to hide dumb QBs. It's meant to maximize an offense that lacks elite playmakers and QBs who have less than ideal physical tools.

But when you put guys like Cam Newton and RGIII who were top ranked HS QBs before entering college and put them in a zone read passing offense, they are able to go toe to toe with some of the best teams in the country.

Geno Smith's profile more resembles Cam and Grif than Harrell and Keenum.
Geno, Cam and Robert were coveted recruits coming out of HS.
RGIII had a scholarship to Stanford. Cam was supposed to be the heir apparent to Tebow at Florida. Geno Smith turned down a scholarship offer from the U.

The point is, superficially Geno's game may resemble other Air Raid QBs, but his individual talent level is much greater than the other failed Air Raid QBs to whom he's often compared.

I don't see Harrell/Hodges/Keenum etc. when I watch Geno Smith play.
Do you??
In terms of arm strength, not even close. Those guys aren't on the same planet as Geno.
Yes the 'Air Raid' offense thrives off YAC, screens and three to five yard hitch routes. But the Mountaineers also ask Smith to drill 25 yard sideline outs and split double coverage on seam routes. Basically Smith is asked to throw the ball to all three levels of the football field and he's done so with ease.

WVU didn't lose to TT because Smith had a particularly bad game. When TT took away Bailey and Austin, their other WRs couldn't step up. It wasn't as if Geno had a meltdown.

The Air Raid offense is the same offense that produced RGIII and he's shown so far his ranking as a pure NFL prospect wasn't a fluke of a gimmick offensive scheme in college.
EIther you see a top NFL QB prospect when Geno Smith plays, or you don't.

If you think he's the byproduct of a gimmick offense and resembles the next Harrell or Casey Keenum, that's all there is to it.

But whenever I personally watch Geno Smith play, I come away impressed with his decision making and the repertoire of throws he's able to make, and his accuracy.

I like his arm, overall athleticism, and competitiveness, but I'm just not sure there's any way for us to determine how well he could operate in a pro style system. I also don't think there's any resemblance between Smith and guys like Newton or Griffin in style of play. I see a player who has talent but consistently stares down receiving targets and takes a very long time in the pocket to find an open man if his first option isn't open. Even guys like Tim Couch who were far more physically talented than a Harrell or Keenum have struggled coming out of the Air Raid offense.

The statistical production means nothing in college football. You have to see if Smith can make nfl reads go through progressions and make nfl throws. I think he can but I haven't seen him against a defense that comes close to being worthy.

Also a lot of qbs stats will inflate in the big 12. Also you can't really say the Lsu game last year. He struggled and his stats inflated due to being behind the entire game.

He's not this world class top prospect the more I watch him honestly I see Tyler Wilson as the top guy.