Monday, March 3, 2008

"The Next Bubble: Priming the Markets for Tomorrow's Big Crash"...

Now available online at Harper's Magazine. This is our third post on this piece, the first to link to the whole thing. Read it.Then bookmark for review about the time of the next presidential election.Before you go to Harper's, here's "Here Comes Another Bubble" to get you in the mood.HT: iTulip's "The Bernanke Goat Rodeo and the Next Boom".

...The next bubble must be large enough to recover the lossesfrom the housing bubble collapse. How bad will it be? Somerough calculations: the gross market value of all enterprisesneeded to develop hydroelectric power, geothermal energy,nuclear energy, wind farms, solar power, andhydrogen-powered fuel-cell technology—and theinfrastructure to support it—is somewhere between$2 trillion and $4 trillion;assuming the bubble can get started, the hyperinflatedfictitious value could add another $12 trillion.

In a hyperinflation, infrastructure upgrades will accelerate,with plenty of opportunity for big government contractorsfleeing the declining market in Iraq. Thus, we can expect tosee the creation of another $8 trillion in fictitious value, whichgives us an estimate of $20 trillion in speculative wealth,money that inevitably will be employed to increase shareprices rather than to deliver “energy security.” When thebubble finally bursts, we will be left to mop up after yetanother devastated industry....MORE