UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Sonnen – Preview, Predictions, Picks

The first real competition to ESPN in the world of sports broadcasting premieres this Saturday when Fox Sports One debuts, a free network which will bring sports fans Major League Baseball, College Football and of course the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Fox Sports One will be a success, one reason being because the network plans to provide UFC fans with regular free fight cards and content, and the UFC fan base is passionate about the sport and will strongly support the network. When the network debuts this Saturday, as part of the kickoff party, there is an incredible UFC super card coming to fans live from Boston, Massachusetts. This is one of the most well-booked fight cards that I have seen in a long time, there are many very evenly matched fights, which I think could go either way. It is a loaded card with a total of thirteen fights, more than the UFC provides to fans on some of their Pay-Per-View cards, so let’s get to the picks:

(Note: The final two fights on the preliminary card are going to be extremely competitive and are worthy of being on the main card, will be very entertaining, and each have Fight-of-the-Night potential)

Main Card (FOX Sports One):

Joe Lauzon (22-8) vs. Michael Johnson (12-8) – Lightweight Bout – An interesting matchup between two former contestants on The Ultimate Fighter, pits submission specialist Joe Lauzon against Michael Johnson, in what should be an exciting matchup. Interesting fact on Lauzon, if he receives a post-fight bonus following this matchup, it will be his thirteenth such bonus, and he will pass Anderson Silva for the most in UFC History. Michael Johnson has some explosive power, but his often gets himself in bad positions, and six of his eight career losses have come by submission. Eighteen of Joe Lauzon’s twenty-two career wins have come by submission, and against a guy like Michael Johnson, Lauzon has a major advantage. In his home state of Massachusetts, I expect Lauzon to wait for Johnson to make a mistake, and finish him with a submission. THE PICK: Lauzon By Submission In The Second Round.

Uriah Hall (7-3) vs. John Howard (20-8) – Middleweight Bout – Fans of the UFC know Uriah Hall as the runner up of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, but Hall was the highlight of the show, as he dealt his opponents some of the most devastating knockouts in the history of the UFC. In the finale of the show Hall was a heavy favorite, but lost a split decision to wrestler Kelvin Gastelum, and I think that Hall’s biggest weakness is his takedown defense. John Howard is fighting out of his hometown of Boston, where he regularly to sparred with Boston Marathon Bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev, even breaking his nose on one occasion. Howard has fought in the UFC before, he sports a winning record (4-3), but was released in 2011 following three straight losses. Those three losses were to three talented middleweights (Jake Ellenberger, Thiago Alves, Matt Brown) who are now some of the top fighters in the weight class. For a middleweight, Howard is just 5’7, but is thickly built and has incredible power. I think that the height and each difference gives the 6’2 Hall a major advantage in this fight, and think that the real test will come when he takes on wrestlers in the future. It’s tough to pick against a guy like Howard, who is making his return to the UFC and fighting in his hometown, and he could easily catch Hall with his power and end this fight quickly. I think Hall stays outside away from Howard’s power, uses his reach advantage to pick Howard apart with both punches and kicks, and controls the action. THE PICK: Hall By Decision.

Matt Brown (17-11) vs. Mike Pyle (25-8) – Welterweight Bout – Few fighters in the UFC are on a roll like Matt Brown is right now, he has won his last five fights, four of which he has won by knockout. Brown was supposed to face Thiago Alves in this matchup, but Alves pulled out of the bout with an injury, and he will be replaced by UFC veteran Mike Pyle. Pyle is on a winning streak of his own, he has won seven of his last eight fights, with the one loss coming to contender Rory MacDonald. Both of these competitors have major knockout power, and I expect these fighters to stand and trade punches, in what should be a brutal contest. This could go either way, and both guys can and will take some punishment, but in the end I think the toughness and guts of Brown gives him slight advantage. I think that Brown eventually catches Pyle and Finishes him with punches. THE PICK: Brown By TKO In The Second Round

Urijah Faber (28-6) vs. Yuri Alcantara (28-4-1) – Bantamweight Bout – Yuri Alcantara is a former featherweight who is fighting for just the third time at Bantamweight, he has posted an (1-0-1) record in his first two fights in the weight class. Alcantara is (3-1-1) since his UFC Debut last June, and has been very impressive, winning two of those fights by decision and one by TKO. Fight fans are very familiar with veteran Urijah Faber, he was the WEC Featherweight Champion for over two years, and has been a top contender for the UFC Bantamweight Title. Faber is one of the toughest pound-for-pound fighters in a sport full of tough guys, in a title fight with Mike Brown in the WEC Faber broke both hands early in the fight, and continued to battle using just his elbows until he ultimately lost a decision. At 34-years old and on a two fight winning streak, this may be Faber’s final run at UFC Gold, and I think he knows that. I think Faber controls the action and gets his third consecutive win by decision. THE PICK: Faber By Decision

Alistair Overeem (36-12) vs. Travis Browne (14-1-1) – Heavyweight Bout – This is going to be a much more compelling fight than people realize, Travis Browne is an extremely tough heavyweight who has been very impressive during his UFC career, but he is making a huge jump in competition when takes on Alistair Overeem. Browne has just one career loss inside the octagon, which came against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, in a fight where Brown tore his left hamstring in the opening moments. He is a tall (6’7 240lbs) heavyweight with major power in his hands, he has won Knockout-of-the-Night bonuses twice, once by knocking out Stefan Struve with a Superman Punch and once by knocking out Gabriel Gonzaga with elbows, Overeem cannot take Browne lightly. Alistar Overeem is one of the most feared heavyweights on the planet, his proficiency in the kickboxing style is rare for a man of his enormous stature (6’4 265lbs) and he has wins over some of the most dangerous big men in mixed martial arts. To me this fight comes down to which Alistar Overeem shows up. As you know Alistar Overeem failed a drug test before his scheduled Heavyweight Title Shot at UFC 146 against Junior dos Santos and was suspended for almost a year, and when he returned at UFC !56 he dominated Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva for two rounds, but gassed and was knocked out after Bigfoot caught him in the third round. I think that Overeem took Silva lightly, and his body was lacking testosterone due to the lack of the supplement scrambling his hormones, which caused him to gas. I do not think this happens on Saturday night, Browne is very dangerous, but I think the jump in competition will be too much for him to overcome. I hear Overeem is clean, focused and ready, I expect him to hurt and finish the tough Browne and once again become a contender for the Heavyweight Title. THE PICK: Overeem BY TKO In The First Round

Mauricio Rua (21-7) vs. Chael Sonnen (27-13-1) – Light Heavyweight Bout – An interesting matchup, which pits one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the world in Rua against a world class wrestler in Sonnen, in a bout that we should expect to stay on the mat. Neither Sonnen or Rua have a lot of power in their hands, although Rua has been training with Freddie Roach and has been able to knock some opponents out with his strange but effective looping punches in the past, I expect Sonnen to look for the takedown instantly and Rua to look to submit him from the mat. To me, the biggest deciding factor in this match will be “Shogun” Rua’s endurance, he has shown up to fights out of shape in the past and exhaustion has cost him fights he should have won. If Rua is in shape and focused, he has an excellent shot at submitting Sonnen, and he should be able to capitalize off of the wrestler’s takedown attempts. We know what Sonnen’s gameplan is going to be, he is going to take Rua down and use his advantage in cardio and excellent conditioning to wear Rua down, he will try to use his wrestling to control the action. If this was a three round fight I would probably lean Rua, but it’s a five round contest, and since Sonnen is always in excellent physical shape I think he has the advantage. I look for Sonnen to take Rua to the mat, wear him down over the course of the fight, and eventually finish a gassed Shogun. THE PICK: Sonnen By TKO In The Fourth Round