In 2001 – we produced an OECD Environmental Outlook to 2020 to identify the key challenges facing environmental policy makers. The results were summarised using a “traffic lights” analogy: green lights for issues that are being well managed, yellow for ones where there has been improvement but are not yet on the right track, and red for issues that need to be urgently addressed. You can see from this table the “ red light ” issues which need the most action from policy makers. These were established based on extensive analysis for the Outlook, and consultation of experts. Greenhouse gas emissions  despite the recent introduction in many OECD countries of carbon or energy taxes, tradable permits, and the growing use of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms – only one-third of OECD countries have stabilised or reduced GHG emissions since 1990. Those that have, was the result of economic or structural changes, not successful climate policies. Motor vehicle and aviation air pollution – major source of local air pollution, GHG emissions, congestion, accidents, etc. Some local air pollutants from transport decreased (e.g. sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides), but overall pressures continuing to increase. Agricultural pollution - Agriculture continues to have significant pressures on the environment – it is responsible for 40% of nitrogen emissions and 30% of phosphorous emissions to surface waters and contributes to groundwater pollution – an increasing concern for many OECD countries. Over-fishing - 28% of major marine stocks are overexploited or recovering; 47% are fully exploited. Global biodiversity  increasing the are of natural parks (now 14.6% of OECD land area), but less success outside the parks. The percentage of known species that are endangered is continuing to increase. Chemicals in the environment - Releases of chemicals during manufacturing and from products continues, and they are now widespread presence in the environment, causing environmental and human health and problems. Of particular concern are chemicals that are persistent, bioaccumulating and/or toxic.

Example: MedAction: Land use change scenarios at various scales  To better understand the driving forces leading to land degradation and desertification in the Northern Mediterranean and to contribute to policy-making to address these issues 25/05/11

25/05/11

25/05/11

Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present 25/05/11

Ad 1: Even when scenarios will not be quantified you should continue with steps 2 and 3

Ad 2 as a scenario should fit the context there is a strong link with Phase 2

Based on National socio-economic development plan

The future land use map generated by Clue is used as input map for Globio3 to generate the MSA_lu map and also used in combination with (future) road map to generate future MSA_infra and MSA_frag maps.

Transcript

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Land use scenario development Workshop Regional changes of land use for climate change adaptation and mitigation 2 4-25 May 2011, Zamorano By Wilbert van Rooij Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) seconded to Aidenvironment

Environmental science – a complex issue An assessment of the current status is complex, the assessment of the future status even more

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What is a scenario? Scenarios are credible , challenging, and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that can be told in both words and numbers. Scenarios are plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces. Scenarios are not forecasts , projections , or predictions .

Global Orchestration Globally connected society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in public goods such as infrastructure and education.

Order from Strength Regionalized and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little attention to public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem problems.

Adapting Mosaic Regional watershed-scale ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystem management strategies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive approach to the management of ecosystems.

TechnoGarden Globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems.

By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally

Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing rates of change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of change

Some ecosystem services in some regions may initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate. As climate change becomes more severe the harmful impacts outweigh the benefits in most regions of the world

Net harmful impact on ecosystem services

The balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2 o C above preindustrial levels ( medium certainty). This would require CO 2 stabilization at less than 450 ppm.

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Phase 1: How to set up a scenario exercise Understand context, aim of scenario exercise Identify and agree on type of support to be given Agree on expected outcome in terms of process and product Define scope: Budget and time frame Geographical scale and time horizon Type of scenarios and analysis Set up a project team and environment: Establish authorising environment Decide who to involve in the process and when Define role of stakeholders 1 2 3 4 5

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Phase 2: How to develop scenarios Identify main concerns and stakeholder questions and understand how past changes have come about Establish scenario development procedure and decide on method( inductive, deductive or incremental Analyse main drivers of change in future Discuss possible trends for each driver Identify the main uncertainties for the future Develop a set of scenario logics Describe scenario assumptions and story lines based on identified drivers and scenario Optional: use models to quantify main trends and assumptions Stage 1 2 3 4 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

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Phase 3: How to analyze scenarios Determine whether, what and how to quantify. Check: Need and role quantitative information Availability of quantification tools Availability of budget and time Time horizon of analysis Which need to be assessed To what extent models need to be coupled Analyze implications of individual scenarios Optional: Quantify driving forces and impacts Assess ecosystems and human well being implications Optional: Analyze specific response options Analyze across the set of scenarios: Identify reasons for differences across scenarios Identify differing, similar and offsetting trends Optional: Analuze response options in scenarios 2 3 1 Policy options: e.g. climate adaptation and mitigation

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Demand: How much will be the change (in ha) of all major land uses? Spatial policies: New national parks, restricted areas, agricultural development zones Location characteristics: Infrastructure (new roads?) = change in accessibility Soil (soil degradation?) Population (migration because of globalisation?) Etc. Conversion settings Transition possibilities from one land use type to another Link with CLUE-s model

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National scenarios – essential characteristics The scenario should be: 1. Consistent with the assumptions of a selected archetype scenario 2. Consistent with current national trends 3. Creative! (do not use archetype as straitjacket) 4. As specific as possible on policy options for conversation 5. Linked with CLUE-s where possible

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Scenario information is used for the geographical allocation of future land use and to determine its pressure on biodiversity + + + + Lu model + Globio MSA_lu2020 MSA_infr2020 MSA_frag2020 MSA_nitr2020 MSA_clim2020