Posted
by
timothyon Monday October 22, 2012 @11:08AM
from the layers-of-hypotheticals dept.

Nerval's Lobster writes "If the Apple rumor mill proves correct, the unveiling of the iPad Mini this week could mean sayonara for the iPad 2. At least, that's the prediction of Evercore Partners analyst Rob Cihra, who wrote in a recent note to investors that he believes Apple will remove the iPad 2 from its lineup to make room for a smaller tablet. Apple insider excerpted parts of Cihra's note Oct. 19. Of course, that's just one analyst speculating about the future plans of a company known for playing things close to the proverbial vest: Apple's Oct. 23 event in California could feature all sorts of surprises. So what do we know about the iPad Mini? First, that it might not be called the iPad Mini — that's a moniker dreamed up by the press. Second, a cheaper and smaller iPad could impact the market for e-readers and 'price-sensitive users,' according to J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz, which in turn could mean a challenging future for Amazon, Google, and other IT vendors marketing cheaper tablets. Third, the media—driven by unnamed sources and blurry spy photos—seems to have collectively settled on a 7.85-inch screen without a high-resolution Retina Display."

The upgraded Nexus 7 32GB wifi model will soon be sold at £200. For the equivalent iPad mini (32GB wifi) you'll be paying ~£330 (and more likely £350). And that seems about right for the premium Apple like to charge for its products.

From the source of that post [9to5mac.com]: "We created the likely pricing matrix for the smaller iPad shown above."

In other words, it's just a wild guess by a blogger to attract page views for his site. Everyone keeps repeating it as if it's an official document.

A quick glance at Apple's pricing shows that they strongly prefer prices that end in 49 or 99 for the iPod and iPad lines (the cellular equipped iPad is an exception). I'd expect to see an 8GB iPad Mini at $249 or $299, but it won't be a bi

If it's $329, I don't see who their target audience is. People who specifically want an iPad already have one; this isn't much of a price drop compared to the iPad 2. People who want a 7-inch tablet can get the Nexus 7 for much cheaper, and unlike the first generation of Android tablets, that device has actually received good reviews and works well for most people.

Selling the iPad Mini at $329 would basically be bringing back the old Apple price premium. Due to good supply chain management, that had been pr

Very good observation - what's the impact on Touch with introduction of a smaller iPad? My guess is, if there's a mini iPad, it has to be $299 or so... at a premium of other similar Android (that's how apple makes $).

Perhaps the tablet market is more lucrative for apple, and they want to try to stop losing the market to android. Maybe they figure that the ipod is competing with the iphone, that if they price the ipod higher, more people will opt for an iphone instead of an ipod and a cheap phone?

I've always suspected that if companies stoped playing such stupid games, and just made pricing rational, they'd probably do just as well if not better in the long run, than annoying people with shenanigans like this.

I made no comment on what the price will be. My comment was conjecture, that if the price is less than the iPod touch, I would be less inclined to buy an iPod touch because I would feel as if I am overpaying. Many people have an innate (usually irrational when it comes to technology) intuition that bigger == better. Line the three devices up side by side and most people will price the iPod touch as the least expensive, the iPad mini as the middle, and the iPad as the most expensive. When you tell them "No,

It looks like Google will be adding some models next week - Nexus 10, with an extremely high resolution screen for less than $300. And a Nexus 7 32G with the price of the original Nexus 7 dropping to about $160.

Some new Nexus phones too.

I have a Nexus Galaxy phone that I bought from Google and use on a prepaid plan. It's a nice unlocked choice without the junk the phone company loads on your phone, and the prepaid aspect gives me a lot of flexibility.

It looks like Google will be adding some models next week - Nexus 10, with an extremely high resolution screen for less than $300

The current word is that the Google/Samsung joint venture tablet will have a 2560x1600 screen resolution. Awesome if true, but I can't imagine them getting that out at a $300 price point. More likely it will be the same price as the iPad 3 (starting at $499). Even so, it will probably restore competitiveness at the high end of the tablet market, which is a good thing.

. More likely it will be the same price as the iPad 3 (starting at $499)

Why would you think that they wouldn't price the device cheaper than the iPad. I can only imagine the Google pricing for a market share grab. Its what they did for the NEXUS 7 why would they change strategies from a successful one to an unsuccessful one.

Because it would complete with Samsung's own tablets that sell for $599.

Which Samsung tablet starts at $599? The Galaxy Note 10.1, currently Samsung's premium tablet product, has a base price of $499. Of course extra flash memory and a cellular modem will cost more... we were talking about base prices.

Second, a cheaper and smaller iPad could impact the market for e-readers and 'price-sensitive users,' according to J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz, which in turn could mean a challenging future for Amazon, Google, and other IT vendors marketing cheaper tablets.

I think we can safely suggest that the GP was on-topic given his comments clearly related to TFS.

I didn't say he was off topic. I was wondering where he was going with his statements, other than "don't forget about Google" which inevitably appears in the comments of any article mentioning Apple. Just like we have "don't forget about Apple" posts in anything related to Android.

I'd be shocked if they didn't drop the iPad 2. There's no point in keeping it since it's old technology. It fit a niche but if people want a cheaper option they'll get the mini. I don't see a need to come up with one for every price point. You've got the full strength then a cheaper version for those that can't aford the full sized one. What I want to see is more memory. Where are the 128 and 256 models? I found the HD films looked only marginally better while sucking up twice my capacity so I stopped buyin

Maybe Apple users just think different, but everyone I know that are buying 7" tablets are not doing it for price. (Although they really like the price) They are doing it because they want a tablet that fits in their large pockets or purses. Large tablets are dandy for places that you can set them down and walk away from them, but they suck for carrying around all of the time. Jobs didn't understand this, and it is sounding like his replacement doesn't either.

+1. Another factor is weight. 10" tablets are too heavy to hold, so they are either laid flat (which is a pin in the neck), or propped up (can't type). The 7" factor is much lighter, and one can even type with two thumbs while holding it.

The iPad 10" is great for carrying around the house, but I feel like I need a bag, or a shoulder strap to carry it outside. I'd love something that I can put in a jacket pocket. I tried the iPhone, at the store-- it feels cramped.

Each has a market. Having them all lets Apple get more market penetration. In fact, many people, like us, buy multiples. I don't want to carry even an iPad mini around in my pocket by an iPodTouch is just right. Goldilocks was onto something.

If anything, I would expect Apple to bring out an iPad MAXi with a bigger screen. Then you've got the iTV for the really big version.

I'm the first to mention this, but there there are solid rumors of the "New iPad" getting a revamp with a move to the new lightning connector. The latest iPod touch has the new lightning connector and the iPad mini will have it too. Apple is not shy about ditching technology so it would make sense to ditch the iPad 2 to ensure that all of its mobile lineup carries the lightning connector

All the people thinking Apple has to compete with Nexus/Fire are forgetting something. Those products have essentially no profit margin, they are non-profit products.

Apple doesn't work that way. Apple makes its money with nice healthy profit margins, of which there would be zero in an 8" 4:3 iPad. That is another thing, did everyone forget how rounding works. The iPad Mini rumors state the display is 7.85". If you going to round off to the nearest inch, that is 8" not 7" like everyone keeps stating.

I agree there's no chance it'll come out at $250, but that's because of marketing, not anything else.

Apple can sell hardware at cost and make profits if they control the ecosystem which delivers content to the hardware, and they do indeed do that.

The rumors say this'll be more than $300. Of course it will be. The price is always a good way to say "This is better", and adding 20-30% to the price of something doesn't price it out of the ballpark but it does make it appear, to many people, to be a better

This has been inferred for last 4 years or so, but somehow it never seems to come to pass [ycharts.com]. First it was the newer SanDisk mp3 players going to eat into the iPod margins, then the new Android phones would eat into the iPod margins, then the new Amazon Fires would eat into the iPads.

Somehow through all of the competition their margins just keep getting better.

The event is freaking TOMORROW. What's the point in posting an article today that speculates what the price of the iPad Mini might be? We'll actually know tomorrow - no speculation involved!

Because its really interesting, The IPad Mini price point is interesting because this quarter is incredibly exciting, with Apple forced to bring out a Tweener tablet that will cannibalise its both high margin iPad and iPod touch, at the same time trying to stave of competition from Androids successful 7" ranges from Amazon and Google. That is ignoring the other side of the equation where a successful launch of Nexus 10 or Surface or both could put a real dent in Apple High end High Margin profit.

Tablet fads have come and gone... the iPad has actually done really well this time around, but I remember how the 486 tablets (that did all the same stuff at much lower resolution) were going to make PCs obsolete... sure they did.

Due to e-readers, I think this time around tablets might actually settle into a durable niche of their own. But a lot of people (such as myself) will never really have a use for one.

You would think it only takes 1 week for people en masse to determine you can't type remotely quickly on a tablet but indeed, it does seem to take 2-3 years. We do seem to be on the tail end of it though. I was more than happy to see netbooks go and these can follow right along.

As with anything if you do it enough you'll get a 'feel' for where everything is. I don't look at the keyboard intently when typing, though it is difficult not to see it at all because oddly enough it is right there on the screen.

The fact remains that, moderate typing speed discrepancy aside, they are not a fad and they're not going away anytime soon. The fact that PC speeds haven't dramatically increased in the past couple of years leads me to believe that companies will want to pour more R&D into area

The PC community needs a killer app-- something that needs the brawn of a full scale CPU and graphics card, yet is so sensitive to latency that the thin client server model can't work. I Know! Gaming! Zynga should talk to Crytek about making a killer farming game [steampowered.com]

Sorry, no, it's not a moderate typing speed discrepancy, it's a massive discrepancy, a factor of 3 at best and more like 10 in practice. Plus, typing on a touchscreen is an ergonomic horror. If you do it hours over a long period of time, bad things are going to happen to your eyes, hands and skeleton.

The only possible way a tablet can displace a PC for typing intensive applications is with an actual keyboard.

Not to mention that, when typing on a screen, you must keep your eyes on that "keyboard" like a fucking moron. I haven't looked at my keyboard in decades, because I clearly feel where the keys are.

How does that even work? My hands are on the keyboard when I type on my tablet, I can't type and look at the keyboard at the same time. Usually I just stare off into space focusing on what I want to sound while tapping away.

For a very arbitrary definition of "decent". The fact remains that you will never be able to match the typing speed achieved on a keyboard, even with limited travel, when typing on a tablet's screen.

I bet you can't type on a Blackberry keyboard as fast as a desktop computer keyboard either.

So what? Different interfaces have different "limitations", if you want to call it that. I suspect most people aren't typing so much at one time that they need to be able to type entire novels quickly. (Of course they al

I'm just curious regarding your opinion of netbooks. You say that a better device came along. What device would that be? I'm very happy with my netbook less as a portable media machine and more as an ultralight writing desk. It is a handy platform for keeping all of my writing in one place: essays, speeches for my Toastmasters club, short stories, and my unfinished NaNoWriMo attempts.

I suspect that the better device[s] to which you're referring are the tablets that followed the netbooks. They're super

Your lack of cynicism is refreshing. Repeat after me: "we geeks are (almost) alone in our desire to have productive potrable devices, and everyone else just consumes, perhaps with the occasional e-mail or trip to Facebook."

Ahh. I must concede those two points. Not that I meant for my anecdote to serve as an irrefutable counterargument, of course. Just adding my perspective to the conversation. On that subject, though, I like to think that one of the ways in which geeks can serve their communities is by promoting geek-like enthusiasm for creativity and exploration in the people around them. Too often, we lament how unimaginative our neighbours are. I believe that it's worthwhile to encourage them, though.

Microsoft did a great job of making tablets suck. So much so a market never developed. Apple came along and made a bigger more computing useful iphone and it took off. Android works well enough that I've seen many businesses use it in applications that a tablet is useful. Microsoft is still trying to jam Windows on a tablet and wondering why it fails.

True you can't type as fast on a tablet, so if that's all you wanted to do on a tablet they would indeed be useless. But drawing and writing on a tablet is certainly much more comfortable than on a desktop or a laptop. Tablets can also be used more conveniently on planes, the subway, while standing, or any number of places using a laptop or desktop is awkward. They can be passed around a room easily or turned around shown to a group. There are many use-cases for this form factor advantage. Touch interfaces are also more natural for many people. My 90 year old grandmother who's never used a computer in her life can use an iPad, because the interface and gestures are 1:1 with her movements, unlike a mouse (ever try explaining the difference between left-click, double click, and right click, and when to use each to someone completely new to computers?)

For the foregoing reasons, I don't see tablets as a fad anymore. They died before for technological reasons such as insufficient computational power, insufficient battery, terrible low resolution restive touch screens, and insane prices. This time around all the sweet spots seem to be met. For a long time tablets have been about consuming media, but I think as the touch interfaces mature we'll see the use cases expand. Just because they don't fit into your life doesn't mean they don't fit into anyone else's.

Most of the people I know who have a tablet, use it primarily for media consumption and typing speed is not really of much importance. Having said that, I can tap out emails and the like at a reasonable rate - I'd estimate something like 50ish words per minute. That's using the replacement Android keyboard, Hackers Keyboard, which I thoroughly recommend for most power users (gives you a normal qwerty layout with shift, ctrl, etc., buttons where you'd expect them to be).

I only lose about 10-15 wpm going from my keyboard to my XOOM. And the XOOM is out-of-date hardware. (I average 67-78 WPM [more when on a roll] on a keyboard, for a frame of reference).
The error rate is higher, and the auto-correct is a bit tricky. But typing "at speed" isn't the issue.

I agree, my speed of typing is lower on a tablet than on a real keyboard. The level of noise from typing on a tablet is much less though. Instead of needing to taking notes on pen & paper during conference calls (because a real keyboard would be too noisy) and having somebody do data entry from my notes, now I can take my notes during the call directly on a tablet (that can run throughout a workday on its internal battery easily) and they are ready to be sent directly from the tablet as the call conclu

Hush now whipper snapper! I use a netbook on my commute. Having clicky keys is very handy when you've actually learnt how to touch type. Touch screen keyboards simply do not offer any feedback whatsoever - it is simply impossible to feel your way across the keyboard at night (and since it's dark now when I leave the office, this is actually very important!). I can encrypt the hard drive (useful for the many gigs of company source code & data on it). I can easily log into the renderfarm at work via SSH/V

Tablet fads have come and gone... the iPad has actually done really well this time around, but I remember how the 486 tablets (that did all the same stuff at much lower resolution) were going to make PCs obsolete... sure they did.

It's not for people like you and me. It's for people like my wife. She enjoys sitting in her chair and knitting while watching TV. Now she doesn't need to bump me off of the main computer in order to look up a pattern, she can pull it up while sitting in her chair, and she doesn't have to print it either. She also uses it for a camera. This weekend, an owl landed on the neighbor's porch, she was able to snap a photo and e-mail it, all without having to touch the computer. Perfect for her, and works well for me too.

That's likely because you use a computer to create some sort of content outside of work. I'd say the majority of people no longer fall under this category - most are almost purely content consumers, with the occasional email or facebook update. For them, the tablet is perfect - easy to use and carry around.

The 486 tablets came at a time when most folks using a computer outside of work were creating content, gaming, etc. The market simply wasn't there.

Tablet fads have come and gone... the iPad has actually done really well this time around, but I remember how the 486 tablets (that did all the same stuff at much lower resolution) were going to make PCs obsolete... sure they did.

Due to e-readers, I think this time around tablets might actually settle into a durable niche of their own. But a lot of people (such as myself) will never really have a use for one.

Capacitive (and multi-touch) screens completely change the way that tablets are used. No tablet in the past is worth comparing to something that you can comfortably (as long as you know where your fingers are) type a document up *with the screen*. This was really the turning point for tablets, before that they were a cool thing you could maybe use as an E-reader (but battery life tended to be pathetic) or a VERY clumsy virtual clipboard/sketchpad.

No tablet in the past is worth comparing to something that you can comfortably (as long as you know where your fingers are) type a document up *with the screen*.

Nor is any current tablet, unless your definition includes typing five words a minute with one hand while holding it in the other. Even typing a URL is painful on my Android tablet and from my experience with iPods I can't imagine the iPad is much better.

My own personal experience is that the iPad is a reasonably portable version of the web. Yes, it can do other things

It's is great for reading scientific papers in pdf formthe kindle app is pretty good if you don't want e-inkAnd, of course, there's internet videos, except from the wankers who believe that "mobile video" should be subject to it's own special set of restrictionsBut Safari is excellent. If the iPad didn't have an internet browser (and couldn't run an internet browser) it wouldn't be useful.

I'm holding out, myself, for the all-in-one tablet... powerful enough to manage as an IT/developer's tool (I figure they're close enough already, but to the point that I won't be crippled without a laptop nearby) and includes FULL telephony... I realize one isn't about to hold a tablet up to their ear, but with bluetooth one could have one of those in-ear things just as they do now with an iphone... I'm simply not willing to buy multiple devices that have so much overlap but one damn feature or two that is

Sadly, no... skype is currently not allowed to make emergency service calls. I'm speaking of a telephony service that is 100% exchangeable with modern requirements of having a damn phone number (yes, I hate phones.) If I didn't have to write down a phone number on forms I'd probably not even have one... but as long as I MUST, I'd just as soon not having to have a separate and ultimately unused object that handles it.

Maybe you just don't have a use for one. A lot of people don't. Nothing wrong with that.

For me, it's a laptop replacement. Since I have a desktop and don't have a laptop, I just got an iPad instead. All I wanted was something I could read on that's portable, and it does a great job at that. Plays games, has my music (and an occasional movie), does browsing and email really well, has my ebooks, etc.

Battery life lasts far longer then a laptop does and it's more portable. Since I don't do real "work" with it,

So after all the "bigger screen, MOAR PIXELZ!!!!1!!!" ad campaign for the new iPhone, they made this one lower res and smaller and rebooted old technology. I didn't know Apple customers' top 3 wanted features were decrementing the version number, less pixels, and a smaller viewing area.

It's clearly a stopgap measure. Apple needs to get a "Goldilocks" product to keep someone else from owning that size profile and eroding their market share in smaller and larger formats.

The best engineering will be in both the iPad and the iPhone: best battery life, best display, etc. This mid-size is a compromise of the two, and won't really excel at anything in particular. If it ever does, it will be because of functionality that will be held back from being released on other sizes. Maybe external storage

Exactly. When your competition is making zero or even negative profits on each unit, just stay away from the whole damn thing unless you think you can command a big premium. Or unless you want in on their business model, which I think Apple would do poorly in.

On the other hand, when Apple ignores what its competition is doing (larger screens on phones, 4G/LTE) people complain that Apple is being arrogant and that anyone who agrees with their decisions is iSheep.

They've done really well with their previous strategy, but no strategy wins forever in a competitive environment. While I think it would be a shame to see them go to a 100% reactionary strategy, trolling Slashdot and other sites for suggestions for new features to release and/or making Samsungian copi

Since when did Apple care about the low-profit end of the market? They don't do any cheap products, they are a premium only brand. And before you say it even the products that are relatively cheap, like the smaller iPods, are not cheap in their class.

If Apple do release an iPad Mini at this price point it would be a major change of direction for them.

I've never really understood it either. 7 inches is too large to fit in your pocket, yet too small for a lot of tasks. Once you need to carry a backpack/purse/messenger bag to carry the device about, you might as well at least have a 9-10 inch screen. I've been waiting for the Google Nexus 10 which is rumoured to be coming out. If they give it a reasonable price, like they did with the Nexus 7, then I'll be buying one for sure. I have an eBook reader that only has 6 inch screen, which is fine because I

but a 10" doesn't. Also, what do you mean by "too small"? The number of pixels on a Nexus 7 matches a lot of the larger tablets, so as long as you can read the smaller font size you're golden. Lastly, 7" is small and light enough to easily hold it in one hand. 10" is borderline too bulky.

I say all the above as the owner of a firesale Touchpad. I use it a lot (alternate between WebOS/CM9 as needed), but I'd probably really like a Nexus 7.

I don't generally wear cargo pants, and I don't really want my device dictating which pants I'm going to wear for the day. I don't know about you, but pixels don't actually define the size for me. Pixels define the clarity of what I see. I'm perfectly happy using a 17 inch 1280x1024 monitor to do my work. But I would not be able to get my word done on a 7 inch screen with the same or higher resolution. The "click target" can only be made so small (physically) before I can't reliably hit it.

The iPad Retina display makes things prettier, and possibly easier to read. It's nice enough that the iPad 2 looks crude by comparison. But my 1080*1920 22" display is far more useful than my ipad's 10 inch display-- because I can display multiple windows, and (with a mouse) interact with hundreds of very small widgets. The ipad's useful resolution is determined by the size of my fingers.

Ah, but you're wrong. 7" FWIW is just small enough to fit in your (trouser) pocket, and once you use it you'll realize that it doesn't really have any less screen real estate in practice than the bigger tablets.

Moreover, 10" tablets are designed to be the same size as "a sheet of paper" because someone who should have known better (I'm looking at you corpse of Steve Jobs) thought that was a good idea, given that's something people feel comfortable holding.

I know I see a lot of people in cafe's and diners using them. I went by Barnes&Nobles just last week and 3 people were sitting there surfing on iPads. I have no real use for something that large but I do have a Galaxy Player 5" tablet that I love. I use the thing everywhere mostly to read on but also occasionaly to watch a show or something and then I surf on it quite a bit also. I think a 5" device is perfect for me, big enough to see but small enough to fit in a pocket.