The Rocketpocalypse is my name for the likely wave of changes in the spaceflight industry brought about by the emergence of SpaceX and its downward cost-forcing on the market. It will involve restructing of large, respected old rocket firms; mergers and acquisitions; spinoffs and downsizing; and a rethinking of old paradigms, among other major changes.

Ultimately the Rocketpocalypse will do away with some existent rocket companies altogether. But a game that I enjoy playing is thinking about exactly what kind of changes will happen to each of the current players: Which ones will need to join forces to compete; which will need to downsize and rethink; which will need to become more ambitious and/or more focused; and which simply have no future. Also worth thinking about which will have even more of a future thanks to SpaceX.

I like to think of it in the analogy of the late dinosaur era:

Dinosaurs The big, well-adapted masters of the status quo.Feathered Dinosaurs They're dinosaurs, but they have the ability to adapt when the asteroid comes.Mammals - Small and helpless at this point. They survive marginally, but will able to strongly exploit new opportunities when the big animals are knocked away from above them.The Asteroid - SpaceX. The which changes everything.

It's fun to imagine what happens when the Rocketpocalypse comes. Aerianespace, for instance, is already undergoing quite a row within itself trying to restructure for the low-cost future. And most likely no matter what they decide will be insufficient, because they're debating how to fight the SpaceX of today, which will not be the SpaceX of tomorrow. Like the Grim Reaper, SpaceX never stops coming for the bottom line of space companies that have not kept on their toes.

The "Dinosaurs" will probably last quite a way thru the nuclear winter after the "Asteroid" living from the contents of the pork barrels left lying around after the hit between $US2.8 and $US8.6 billion for building a super sized Saturn V equivalent from recycled shuttle parts I don't think the "Dinosaurs" are going starve that quickly. The champagne socialists of the military industrial complex will go out still drinking champagne.

Yes, GS (Government Space) is a pork barrel right now and the "Asteroid" (Space for the People) needs to take control and direct the use of the pork, but sadly that is not the case right now, since GS is just in it for jobs and retirement, not actually further the development of space or taking US into space. Boeing, Lockheed, SpaceX, etc. they all are just sucking at the teet of GS. So much potential wasted by lack of direction.

Hey you left out part of the Military "POLITICAL" "FINANCIAL" Industrial Complex! They are all in bed with each other, bunch of "Freaks"! But hey if they had direction we could be on Mars by now! Which is sad!

If elected President of the United States, I promise to give them that direction for at least 8 years. A practical sustainable directed program that will take us from Earth, to Orbit, and to the Moon, then the next generation can go to Mars, an Asteroid, and.....anything else! That is reality and practicallity!

Ultimately the Rocketpocalypse will do away with some existent rocket companies altogether...

Probably not. Most of the examples you mentioned are effectively extensions of government space agencies (Arianspace, Boeing, etc.) that also happen to do commercial launches on the side. Just because they make money hand-over-fist now in a low competition market does not mean that they could not do so in a more competitive one or one where the supply demand curve has be radically changed. If anything they more of an advantage than a new entrant because they have deeper pockets and more resources to draw upon.

The real "rocketpocalypse" would come when Victor perfects his "antigravity" which makes rockets (and the tremendous investment in their development) instantly obsolete and uncompetitive. In that case, narrowly focused companies like SpaceX will still be in worse shape than more diversified ones like the big prime contractors.

Yes, anti-gravity would spell disaster for all the participants. Until then the dinosaurs will rule. Even Space X is on the government take and there is simply not enough of a market for the smaller guys at this point. I talked with the CEO of a very small company currently flying in space and the market is not what he had hoped and is surviving only because of NASA (government) funding. Even customers like universities and such are few and far between and just don't pay the costs involved. Simply put, new space or old, reliable access to space is expensive and will continue to be...but doesn't mean we have to stop trying ( :

There is no such thing as "Anti-Gravity" because "Gravity" doesn't exist! Or, what people call gravity is "Magrity"! There is no pulling only displacement (compression) of objects causing movement in fluid space! Donnnnn't get me started!

But I digress.....we still need to develop a non-profit model of developing the infrastructure and hardware that will actually take "US" into space, that will return to investors their investment and a chance to go to space or purchase the technology developed to run a for-profit business.

Ultimately the Rocketpocalypse will do away with some existent rocket companies altogether...

The real "rocketpocalypse" would come when Victor perfects his "antigravity" which makes rockets (and the tremendous investment in their development) instantly obsolete and uncompetitive. In that case, narrowly focused companies like SpaceX will still be in worse shape than more diversified ones like the big prime contractors.

How about the Virgin Galactic business switched on to the solar powered motherships that propel the reusable winged rockets to mach 10 speed at 80 km...and the rockets jettison the first stage at 140 km where the air ends...at the speed of 150 000 km/h...wouldn't that make a difference if the systems weighs 70 times lesss than the APOLLOs were...and reaches the Jupiter in 6 months ?