January 07, 2013

China IT milestones now and future

* China has already overtaken the United States as the world’s biggest smartphone market.

* China also passed one billion mobile subscribers early in 2012.

* China has over 500 million Internet users, according to the government-affiliated China Internet Network Information Center.

Future Milestones for China

China's online population will be over 800 million by 2015
Web sales will be over 18 trillion yuan ($2.9 trillion) by 2015—taking the top spot in global e-commerce.

Gartner is predicting enterprise IT spending alone in China will grow from $117.8 billion in 2013 to $172.4 billion by 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate of 8 percent, compared to a global growth rate of just 3 percent over the same period

IDC expects China’s ZTE will leap from fourth to third position in smartphone shipments—riding an astounding 80 percent plus growth rate and driven in large part by its emerging market roots and focus on low-cost smartphones

ZTE, Huawei and Lenova will be among the top 5 global mobile phone manufacturers.

Despite success in the handset space, ZTE and Huawei will likely continue to struggle in the international telecom equipment market due to national security concerns. The U.S. and Australia have blocked the firms from competing in their domestic markets, while Canada, India, and even the U.K. are investigating the firms’ links to the Chinese government.

China could have 500 million smartphones installed by the end of 2013.
China's smartphone adoption will then slow slightly in 2014 and 2015.
I think cheap smartphones will enable world smartphone adoption to reach about 2.5 to 3 billion by the end of 2015. China will reach 1 billion smartphone installation by the end of 2015.