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Game changers

DETROIT — A handful of cars and SUVs hitting the road over the next year or so could shake up the competitive balance among the world’s top automakers.

General Motors’ Buick and Chevrolet brands look to continue momentum in their car lineups.

Ford’s adventurous design team has radically reshaped two of the brand’s perennial best-sellers.

BMW, Lincoln and Cadillac will introduce dramatic new sport sedans in the luxury market’s most competitive segment.

Honda has a chance to reverse its momentum and re-establish itself as a leading innovator.

Toyota aims to show it has the right formula for everything from pickups to plug-in hybrids and inject life into its Scion brand.

Buyers will judge the first car created by the new Chrysler-Fiat alliance.

By the end of next year, these and other key vehicles may have rewritten the sales tables and changed how buyers think of some of the industry’s leading brands.

* CADILLAC: The success of the outstanding CTS sport sedan, wagon and coupe has overshadowed the weakness of the rest of Cadillac’s car line.

The brand hopes to change that in 2012 with the large and luxurious XTS and the smaller, sporty ATS.

“Cadillac needs additional models to round out its portfolio,” said Jim Hall, managing director of 2953 Analytics in Birmingham, Mich.

The XTS’s elegant exterior and sumptuous interior look like winners. Unlike most large luxury sedans, though, it’s based on a front-wheel drive architecture — all-wheel drive will be optional — and will come with a high-performance V6, but no V8 option.

The smaller ATS breaks less new ground.

“It’s supposed to go directly after the BMW 3-series,” said Bill Visnic, analyst and senior editor at Edmunds AutoObserver. “Globally, that size is the volume segment for luxury brands. Cadillac needs to be in the segment, and it needs to be a player in the high-output, high-fuel-efficiency four-cylinder engines the ATS will use.”

* HONDA: The Accord midsize sedan and CR-V SUV are mainstays of Honda’s lineup and two of the best-selling vehicles in the country.

After taking unaccustomed criticism for the new Civic compact that went on sale this year, the new models are a chance for Honda to right the ship.

“The Civic was a letdown. Honda can’t afford to have the same reaction to the Accord, but their recent track record says they will,” 2953 Analytics’ Hall said.

The current Accord’s claim to leadership when it went on sale was simply being bigger than competitors from Chevrolet, Ford, Nissan and Toyota. That was a surprise from a company that built its reputation with creativity and efficiency.

“The CR-V is a bellwether car for Honda,” Visnic said. Recent Hondas have gotten bigger, but not better. “Adding size has not worked for them. We need to see some of the innovation we used to expect from Honda,” Visnic said.

* CHEVROLET: Chevrolet got some hard-won bragging rights when the Cruze compact spent several months as America’s best-selling compact this year. It needs the Sonic subcompact and Malibu midsize to build on that strength.

Shorter but wider than the current model, the Malibu offers a bigger passenger compartment and trunk, but less rear legroom.

Only the high-mileage Eco model — 38 highway mpg — is to be available for the first six months of 2012.

A new 2.5-liter gasoline engine that goes into production midyear will power a less-expensive model. Availability of parts for the Eco’s hybrid system could limit sales, Hall warned.

The Sonic — the only subcompact built in America, built in GM’s Orion Township plant in Oakland County — was designed to attract young buyers with looks, features, 40 mpg on the highway and a $13,735 base price.

“It’s a real test for the new GM,” said Visnic. “If the Sonic succeeds, following the strength of the Ford Fiesta, the domestic automakers will have established themselves as credible players in the small-car market.”

* DODGE: We don’t even know its name yet — “Hornet” is a popular rumor — but the compact car Dodge plans to launch early in 2012 will be a defining vehicle for the new Chrysler.

If this replacement for the Caliber is a hit, it could launch the new Fiat-Chrysler alliance on the path to build a line of competitive, fuel-efficient small and midsize vehicles.

It will be the first car to combine a Fiat platform with Chrysler styling. Chrysler says the car will get at least 40 mpg on the highway.

In addition to its Fiat-based platform, the small Dodge will probably use a turbocharged version of the Fiat-designed 1.4-liter engine built in Chrysler’s Dundee, Mich., factory.

The car is widely expected to be built in the Belvidere, Ill., plant that assembles the Caliber, Jeep Compass and Patriot.

* FORD: The new Fusion midsize sedan and Escape crossover SUV coming in 2012 are two of Ford’s most important models.

The current vehicles are perennial best-sellers. The new ones will break new ground in style and technology.

The Escape takes its looks from the dramatic Vertrek concept vehicle that drew raves at auto shows in 2011. It’s a drastic departure from the conservative looks of the current Escape.

“The new model is critical,” Visnic said. “If it looks like the concept and continues Ford’s recent track record of good fuel economy, there’s the potential to hit it out of the park.”

The Fusion is a similarly drastic styling departure. It will resemble the hyper-modern and upscale Evos concept car Ford unveiled at the recent Frankfurt auto show in Germany. Look for new drivetrains and the next generation of Ford’s hybrid system to boost fuel economy.

There’s a risk the controversial MyFordTouch control system will continue to damage Ford’s customer satisfaction ratings in the Escape and Fusion.

* BUICK: After years on life support, Buick appears to be on the mend.

Two strong new midsize models are already on the road. The compact Verano sedan — going on sale later this year — has its sights set on younger buyers and a hipper image.

“Buick is re-entering the shopping lists of Americans under 70,” said Eric Noble, president of the Carlab, a consultancy in Orange, Calif. “Buick is on a roll.”

The Verano’s challenges will include fuel economy and matching the performance and refinement of other upscale compacts like the Audi A3.

* LAND ROVER: The Range Rover Evoque small luxury SUV is a survival strategy, but a potentially risky one.

As fuel-economy standards rise around the world, Land Rover must find a way to build smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that still command the premium prices its rugged, big SUVs traditionally get.

“It may be too small for the traditional Land Rover buyer,” Noble said. “The challenge is to get the same buyer demographics and profit margin with a smaller interior and a two-door model. Nobody sells a two-door luxury SUV in the United States. It was a big mistake to have brought that body style.”

The Evoque just went on sale. Prices start at $43,145. Land Rover claims 28 mpg highway fuel economy — pretty good for an all-wheel drive luxury SUV, even a small one.

* BMW 3-SERIES: The 3-series is not just BMW’s best-selling model; it defines the entire class of small luxury sport sedans, wagons, coupes and convertibles.

“All the other companies aim for the 3-series when they develop a new car,” Hall said.

The new model will adopt the elegant new styling theme BMW introduced with the 6-series coupe and convertible this year. That’s good, but recent BMWs have suffered from unaccustomed extra weight that hampered their handling.

The new 3-series had better reverse that trend, particularly since it will rely heavily on high-output, high-mpg four-cylinder engines to improve its fuel economy.

The 3-series sedan is to go on sale in 2012. The coupe and convertible are to follow in 2013.

* NISSAN: The Altima is Nissan’s best-selling car and one of the top sellers in America. Despite that indisputable success, it frequently gets overlooked when people talk about the leading midsize sedans.

The new Altima that goes on sale in 2012 can’t afford to be overshadowed by its pricier and more powerful corporate cousin, the Maxima.

Every midsize sedan that matters will have been replaced since 2010. If the Altima is going to raise its profile, the time is now.

“If Honda missteps with the Accord, Nissan could have a market opportunity with the Altima,” Hall said. “If not, there’s a risk it could become another irrelevant Japanese sedan.”

* SCION: The excitement around the long-awaited Scion FR-S sporty coupe resembles the buildup to the release of a new video game.

Engineered by Subaru, the car has fan-boy cred and promises exciting performance at budget prices.

The little rear-wheel drive car has been in the works for so long it’ll be hard for it to meet expectations, but Scion desperately needs a hit — even if Toyota’s own engineers can’t develop one for it.

The FR-S is to go on sale in the second half of 2012. Power will come from a 2.0-liter Subaru boxer engine that uses Toyota’s direct fuel injection for more power and better fuel economy.

* LINCOLN: The all-new MKZ sport sedan must inject life and excitement into the slumbering Lincoln brand.

Lincoln’s best-selling model desperately needs a new look and some exciting features. The arrival of stylish new Fords with advanced drivetrain and interior features makes it vital that Lincoln raise its game to compete with luxury brands like Audi, Cadillac and Lexus.

Without new models that transform its stodgy image, Lincoln is doomed to join brands like Mercury and Pontiac in the dustbin of history.

Lincoln needs a compelling new MKZ to begin the brand’s reinvention. Look for the 2013 MKZ to go on sale next fall.

* TOYOTA: Toyota replaces two of the vehicles that built its reputation and adds a high-profile newcomer within the next year.

The new Camry midsize sedan just went on sale. A new version of the Tacoma midsize pickup is to arrive in the second half of 2012.

“The Tacoma is the volume small pickup,” said Jim Hall, managing director of 2953 Analytics in Birmingham. “It’s a core vehicle for Toyota.”

While the Tacoma and Nissan Frontier have clearly been the best small pickups in recent years, Chevrolet hopes to provide tougher competition with its new Colorado.

The critical response to the Camry has been lukewarm so far. Its fuel economy is fine, but the interior is unimpressive. Toyota hopes the Entune voice-recognition and Internet connectivity system it developed to compete with Ford’s Sync will ignite enthusiasm for the Camry.

It’d be surprising if the Camry and Tacoma don’t remain sales leaders in their segments.

The Prius plug-in hybrid aims to strengthen Toyota in a segment it dominates: hybrids. It should cover 10 to 15 miles on battery power alone; the engine will kick in after that. Toyota suggests it made the right trade-off by balancing a lower $32,000 base price versus less than half the Chevrolet Volt’s all-electric range.

The Prius plug-in is to go on sale on the East and West coasts next spring, then across the rest of the country in 2013.