Tuesday, 24 July 2018

Yesterday,
on Monday, 23 July, two major fires broke out in or near the Attica region. The
first was at Kineta, near Megara. This fire broke out in a forested area along the
national road.

The second
fire or fires broke out along the shoreline to the north east of the capital, in the
area between Rafina and Mati. This is a heavily-forested urban area, where houses,
apartments and hotels are located between the shoreline and national road, and
above the national road on the foothills of Mount Penteli.

A few items
of interest:

a.High winds and dry weather: The
winds yesterday were exceptionally strong, with wind gusts of up to 85 km/hour
reported. These were seen first hand even in the centre of Athens. These are absolutely fatal conditions for a fire.

b.In the Rafina / Mati area, winds
change direction rapidly due to a number of geomorphological, marine and climactic
factors.

c.While I do not know the Kineta area,
I am very familiar with the entire stretch between Rafina and Schinias. This area is characterized by very narrow streets and is totally
covered with pine trees. There are also a number of steep valleys or gulleys
that often block road access and are conduits for flames.

Photos
taken in the aftermath of the fires show burnt cars blocking roads. We can
assume that as people fled, traffic barriers and heavy smoke would have impeded
their flight. As the wind changed, the fire would have moved more rapidly than
a running person, leaping from pine tree to pine tree. The trees would have
ignited immediately, together with the entire ground which is usually covered
with pine needles and other dessicated plants and shrubs.

According
to Kathimerini and Skai News, one group of 26 people were fleeing towards the sea
when they were stopped by flames approximately 30 meters from the waves. I can only
imagine the terror induced by the heat, the high smoke and the panic. All 26
died.

During the
fire, and in the aftermath, two theories broke out:

a.The first was that this was an act
of arson by propery developers, who want to burn the land in order to build on
it. I can’t see this happening in Rafina – Mati. This area is within an urban
area, so the practice of burning and then squatting would not normally be a motivating
factor. I presume that enough of the land plots are registered in the national cadaster.
I can also attest that every serious buyer today looks very carefully at whether
a land plot falls in the forest area or not, and makes their decisions
accordingly. Finally, I remind everyone that Greece remains in a deep economic depression despite recent headline macro numbers, and I find it improbable that new building is taking place given the vast number of unsold properties on the market.

b.The second was that this was an act
of arson by a specific foreign country which wanted revenge over a recent diplomatic
incident. I give very little credence to this scenario.

I do not
know if arson or politics were involved. But I do know that every year, fires are started everywhere
in Greece by drivers throwing lit cigarette butts out their car window. I have
witnessed this happening, and I have also witnessed the aftermath.

I have also
heard many voices blaming the state, and its lack of preparedness. Normally, I
am one of the harshest critics, as this blog attests. However, I can also state
that this terrain is simply very difficult, if not impossible, to protect
against fire. Both streets and lots are literally covered with pine trees. The
lots and streets are small, and narrow, so it is very easy for fire to leap
from tree to tree, which it does with alarming speed.

Together
with the high smoke, the wind speed and the wind direction change, I am not
sure any fire brigade could have coped with this
event. And unless residents were prepared to cut down pine trees (which are
cherished for their shade), I don’t see how effective fire breaks could have been
prepared, absent razing built up areas to create 30- or 50-meter wide fire
breaks.

While we could take further measures to mitigate the risks of fires of this kind, we should be under no illusions as to the social cost and cohesion needed to do so. Even Japan, which has invested hundreds of billions in disaster preparedness, has not been able to perfectly plan for every disaster. And Greece is far from being Japan in terms of social and government planning.

The death
toll currently ranks at above 50, while many media are claiming above 60. It is
a human tragedy which is incomprehensible in our current times. It is a tragedy which sadly occurs every summer, though not in these numbers.
The last time the toll was so high was in 2007.

I would
like to respectfully suggest that we resist the natural impulse to rage at unknown figures, or the state, or
engage in conspiracy theories until further information comes to light.

Saturday, 11 February 2017

Sometime in late October, I mentioned in a
conversation on Facebook that one main concern I had about Donald Trump is that
it would be impossible to unelect him. His authoritarian tendencies, which have
also been exhibited by the Republican Party in the past 16 years, mean that the
rules would be changed to such an extent as to return either the same candidate
or his surrogate to power for a long time to come.

How would this be possible? Anyone controlling
the Presidency, the Congress and soon the Supreme Court has extraordinary power
to influence elections, even though voting is a state responsibility.

Here is a simple catalogue of the alarming
trends that are occurring:

1.
Voter Suppression

Voter suppression is a strategy to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing people from voting. (Wikipedia)

Voter suppression has been
actively used in key battleground states like Florida (famously in the
1999/2000 vote recount) and Ohio. A complete
list of voter suppression techniques seen in the United States can be found
on Wikipedia.

The Center for American
Progress has a detailed list of actual cases of what it claims are voter
suppression in a well-documented
article here. Together with the fact that over 6 million convicted felons
cannot vote, it is clear that a significant number of the American people are
systematically being deprived of their right to vote.

Donald Trump has repeatedly
cast doubt on the electoral result, stating that he won by “millions of votes”,
and suggesting
that voter fraud is the reason he lost the popular vote despite all
evidence to the contrary (to date). Given this approach, it is easy to
understand how a Trump Administration will choose to ignore further activities
in voter suppression in key states.

2. Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering is the
process by which a state sets its voting district boundaries in order to
achieve a disproportionate political result for certain groups. Several states
in the US have extremely complex voting districts which have been defined as a
result of partisan gerrymandering.

Partisan gerrymandering is illegal
according to both the US Constitution and subsequent US law. As Wikipedia
notes:

Various
constitutional and statutory provisions may compel a court to strike down a
gerrymandered redistricting plan. At the federal level, the Supreme Court has
held that if a jurisdiction’s redistricting plan violates the Equal Protection
Clause or Voting Rights
Act of 1965, a federal court must order the jurisdiction to propose
a new redistricting plan that remedies the gerrymandering. If the jurisdiction
fails to propose a new redistricting plan, or its proposed redistricting plan
continues to violate the law, then the court itself must draw a redistricting
plan that cures the violation and use its equitable powers to impose the plan
on the jurisdiction

How would a Trump
Administration enhance gerrymandering? Three ways:

a.By packing the
Supreme Court

b.By weakening the
Voting Rights Act of 1965, for instance by creating for intrusive needs for
voter registration and reducing the franchise

c.By refusing to
actively enforce these acts through the Attorney General’s office.

Kellyanne Conway
recently referred to a non-existent “massacre”, the Bowling Green
Massacre, to justify the travel ban on refugees and citizens of 7 foreign
countries

Why does this matter? Donald
Trump has now normalised the fact that he spreads fake news. Prior to his
inauguration, this was considered acceptable by the people who voted for him.
He is now President of the United States, and it is clear that fake news is not
going to go away anytime soon.

How will fake news affect
future elections?

a.It will be
spread not only by the usual ecosystem of political surrogates and trollers,
but increasingly by elected officials. This is already occurring.

c.It will
increasingly conflate anti-terrorism with patriotism and with supporting
Republic candidates. This is an old script, first pioneered by George W. Bush
after the 9/11 attacks, and repeatedly
enhanced since by the Republican party.

His daughter Ivanka, who has
her own business interests, remains an advisor, as does his son-in-law, Jared
Kushner. The Trump organisation has announced
plans to expand nationally.

Trump’s past record of work in
dealing with complex property development codes and requirements in New York,
as well as his record of strategic
bankruptcies and non-payment
of suppliers indicate that he knows how to use the public sector.

It is apparent that the
incentives for using the Presidency to expand the personal wealth of Donald
Trump and his family members are fully aligned.

5. The 1930s Playbook

Nearly every aspect of Trump’s
business policy as expressed today could have been taken from a 1930’s
authoritarian playbook:

Condemn US
companies for “moving jobs abroad”

Condemn free
trade, when recognising that more American jobs will be lost by pulling out of
key trade agreements such as NAFTA, particularly in key US sectors such as
automotive assembly and agricultural exports

Threaten
successful foreign exporters, such as BMW, with a 35% tariff, while refusing to
recognise that Germany can retaliate with the same tariff

Ignore the
tremendous inequality in the US tax system and household earnings by promising
yet more tax cuts for the very wealthy

Appoint ideological
members of Cabinet who are intent on sabotaging and destroying the very
entities they have been appointed to lead

Create an
unspecified foreign enemy (all refugees, all Muslims, all Chinese, all
Mexicans) and promise a grateful and impoverished nation protection and
strength.

The list is long, and will no
doubt continue to grow in the next few years.

6. Draining the Swamp and Lobbying

The United States government
is the largest financial organisation in the world. It is also the world’s
largest single debtor (at the Federal level) and the largest absolute debtor
when combining the Federal Government, 50 State governments, municipalities,
the Federal Reserve, and organisations such as Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.

The incentives of doing
business with the US Government, as well as seeking regulatory abatement from
it, are simply too high to counteract. Donald Trump is a billionaire who is
appointing a Cabinet of billionaires. Does anyone really believe that the
business interests that gain so much from the government will suddenly change
their course?

If anything, they will be emboldened. This pattern has been repeated throughout
history.

Why?

The question is really why
this is being done. The Republicans control all three branches of government:
Executive, Legislative, Judicial (at least embodied in the Supreme Court). This
sets the stage for a period of time in which they will be able to implement
their policy agenda, subject to the limit where internal Republican conflicts interfere with the process.

Given where things stand now,
I increasingly believe that protecting and extending political power is as
important as policy making for this Party. We see this in the patterns of
gerrymandering and voter suppression in Republican-controlled states.

Thursday, 9 February 2017

I find the Senate confirmation hearings for
Donald Trump’s cabinet interesting but a mainly a distraction. Far too many
friends and colleagues are investing themselves in blocking this nominee or
that. They are free to do so, of course, but it is something of a fool’s
errand.

Donald Trump has won the election, and the
Republican party controls:

The Presidency

The Senate (52 seats)

The House (241 seats)

This means that no matter what, if the
Republican Party maintains voter discipline, it passes its candidates by simple
majority vote.

This should hardly be controversial. The
American voters have spoken, according to the rules of the Electoral College
and voting tradition. There is a new government in Washington. This government
has every right to form a cabinet and begin the process of governing.

In a parliamentary system, this corresponds
to a vote of confidence upon announcing a cabinet. It happens all the time.

The Senate confirmation hearings are useful
in reviewing personal priorities or opinions or past history, but that is all
these can achieve. Yes, the current crop of nominated secretaries may be
controversial or repugnant to some. But they have every political right to take
office. That’s the result of an election, given the duopoly in the US political
system.

A Parliamentary system with more than 2
parties might bring about a more serious confirmation process, but even this is
uncertain given the elected representatives we see in many countries.

Anyone expending their time and energy on
trying to block Betsy Devos or Jeff Sessions should understand this. A party
elected by majority has a mandate to govern, with the candidates it
selects.

If these candidates happen to be dangerous
ideologues not fit to manage a corner store … well … that’s the reflection of
the Electoral College’s will. When you examine campaign finance and voting
records: is Congress any different?

If people are really that angry, it may be far better for them to invest time and energy in something tangible, like
organising for the 2018 mid-term elections. The confirmation hearings are a
theatrical diversion that offer nothing more than reinforcement bias.

Friday, 20 January 2017

I see a constant
stream of frustration, disgust and anger on Facebook and many other channels
tonight as President Donald J. Trump takes office. Certainly, there is much to
be disgusted about.

Let’s look beyond the
anger. The question is, as individuals, what can any one individual do in the
face of a system such as the one we find ourselves in?

Politics is disparate,
and something of an equilibrium. Donald Trump and the Republicans control
Congress for the next 2 years. If you are angry, mobilise now and win a
Democratic majority in Congress in 2018.

The next elections are
on Tuesday, November 6th, 2018. All 435 seats in the House of
Representatives are included, as are 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2018

If you are angry at
Trump and his election, then one creative and positive outlet you have is to
organize now for November 2018.

But while you are
doing this, it’s important to reflect on a couple of things.

First of all, don’t
define yourself solely by what you are against. Define yourself as well by
what you are for. You will find that this is more difficult, particularly when
you ask others to stand for the same things, and vote together.

So compromise is
essential in politics.

Second of all, reflect
that many of the voters who voted for Trump have a serious reason for doing so
(and I’m not referring to the lobbyists or billionaires seeking tax breaks or
public contracts). I’m referring to the middle class and the blue collar
families, who have really been left behind.

Ironically, Hillary
Clinton’s policies would have been much more beneficial for most in this group.
Trump won because his supporters believed he would do a better job (and he won
the Electoral College math).

Whatever the case, the
United States faces drastic problems in terms of debt, falling tax revenue,
loss of economic competitiveness, monopoly situations in many sectors
(including start-ups), an abysmal national healthcare policy, an unbalanced
military policy, and many other problems.

These are not going to
be easy problems to solve. At least not sustainably, or rationally.

So your first job is
probably to try to understand what the current situation is, what the root
causes are, and what the possible solutions are.

These solutions are
going to cost money. Unless you are prepared to pay for them (or force
others to pay for them), they will be difficult to solve.

Finally, if I can
share one point from my personal experience: Back in 1999/2000, I was equally
horrified by the Florida vote recount and George W. Bush’s election.

Much of what I feared
from that time materialized. Most of this was due to an incredible ignorance
among the governing class, as well as the mendacity of those who support and
enable it.

In 2017, this is now
infinitely worse. It is institutionalized.

My advice is: make
sure you are taking care of yourself. We are now in a very “risk-on” world. You
simply can’t take anything for granted. Do whatever is possible to survive and
evolve, especially financially. Protect your assets. Improve your
employability. Make sure you are as flexible, nimble and agile.

The issues we are
seeing now are only leading indicators of a far more serious and deleterious
situation, and one that is practically impossible to reverse.

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