Aroldis Chapman Rumors: Saturday

According to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, the Red Sox are "starting to pull back" from their pursuit of Aroldis Chapman. Boston was one of the first clubs to offer a contract to the Cuban left-hander, worth a reported $15.5MM and made before Chapman switched agents from Edwin Mejia to the Hendricks brothers. Now that the bidding has now reportedly passed the $20MM mark, however, the Sox aren't willing to spend that much on "someone they believe has a lot of question marks."

The Red Sox were seen as one of three 'finalist' candidates for Chapman's services, along with the Blue Jays and Angels. It was reported yesterday that Toronto had offered Chapman a $23MM deal, and today, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star breaks down how and why the Jays (not known for being big spenders) are willing to break the bank for this particular prospect.

I think Theo is right to bail on this. $23M is a lot to gamble on a guy who wasn’t even willing to throw a full bullpen session to demonstrate his value, topped out at 96MPH when he’s supposed to be able to hit 100, and may never actually make it to the bigs. The unemployment rolls are littered with guys who could throw in the high 90s, but never mastered the art of pitching.

Daisuke was Japan’s best pitcher and an official National Treasure. In Japan, if you are born in his year, you introduce yourself as being from the Matsuzaka Generation. THAT’s what the Sox, Yankees and others were bidding on. The offer had to be a sealed bid. Boras was orchestrating. The Sox were at an important point in wanting to repeat 2007 after the injury-related late season collapse in 2006.

Had the Yankees gotten Daisuke, they might have won it all in 2007, and also gotten those 18W in 2008. The Sox outbid everyone, NYY, dramatically. On the face of it, that $50M only earned the right to negotiate with Daisuke/Boras. The money went to his team as compensation for losing him. Sure they could have gotten him for less, but as the bids were sealed, they didn’t know that, and it was essential to beat out the free spending NYY. The other reason the Sox were willing to take on this expense because it INSTANTLY made them major players in the Japanese & Asian markets. Did you know the Middle Class of China alone is larger than the entire population of the USA? That’s a big market. The Sox are now huge in Japan & Asia. Because of Daisuke (who earns a reasonable $8MM per year) they got Okajima, Tazawa, Saito, and more will come; and Red Sox merchandise and tickets are flying off the shelves.

It is important to understand, the Red Sox spend $8MM per year for Daisuke. That’s it. The $50M was a sealed bid posting fee which not only brought them Daisuke, but the 2007WS, 33W in his first two years, Oki, Tazawa, Saito, & a big seat at the Asian table. That, by any business standards, was a worthwhile investment.

While I agree it’s a good idea for Epstein to back off, I don’t agree why. This kid could easily become a very good pitcher, and I would never be seeing posts like this if he -did- sign him. I just think it will be a while before there is even a space for him, with all the established strong starters the Sox already have. At that price, it’s not worth the possibility that he could get stuck behind buchholz, even kelly in the system. If the Yanks aren’t in on it either, there’s not even much risk of fan backlash if we let this one go.

Randy Johnson’s first year where he was considered a “dominant” pitcher after previously posting ERAs close to 4 every year, was when he was 29. There is no way when he was 21 that every team was drooling over him saying “this guy is going to be one of the top 5 pitchers of all time”

he wasnt throwing his hardest , and all clubs were aware of that, after only 5 minutes of warming up, why would his agent allow him to blow his arm in a 2 minute showcase thats just dumb lol blue jays have time to work with him fix his delivery and arm action on his change up and let him develop his off speed pitches more consistently, suck on it boston and yankees!! hahahah

Of course it’s dumb. And if I was his agent and knew that some sucker would throw 20+ million at him without a serious session, that’s what I’d do. Why risk showing how wild he is at 100MPH or that his fastball is like Kyle Farnsworth’s?

But if I was a GM, I’d want to see the real goods before I gambled that kind of money and I’m not sure I’d do it even then.

Tall lefty with a nasty 2-seamer that tops out at 100 and a real lack of control. It’s not anywhere near a fully developed Randy Johnson but is passable enough to a young Johnson who was known for his poor control.

Wow, the bidding is really getting out of control for this guy, isn’t it? If he can actually do what people hope he can, he might be worth it… but he hasn’t proven a thing yet. I’d hate to be the team on the hook for $20 million plus on a bust.

Good let everyone pull away—The Jays are going to get this guy. The hope of looking to the future is something the Jays need. Teams like Boston, NY, Angels they got it right now. Hey it 4-5 million per year for the next five or six is worth the gamble of what this guy could turn into. Going for this guy is consistent with their plans, and if he is not rushed too much he could be a real star

I think you’re right. 2009 might have been the toughest year for Jays fans since….God, I don’t know. Early 80s? Ever?

But if AA signs Chapman, he’ll have added Morrow, Drabek, Chapman, Wallace and D’arnaud in one off season. Plus I think he’d have a good chance at dealing some excess pitching depth for a young SS or 3B prospect.

Along with Hill, Lind and Snider that would be a promising core to look forward to.

A bit early to say the Angels have it now. I personally think they finish behind Texas and Seattle this year, and considering Jack Z looks like a solid GM and that the Rangers have one of the best farms in the league, many about MLB ready…I’d say it looks like tough times ahead for LAA.

How are they sliming him? All they said was that he has alot of question marks that they just didnt want to pay that much money to sign him. That is their opinion of him lots of teams have opinions of players doesnt mean that they are voicing their opinions to make that player look bad infront of teams looking to sign him.

I don’t think he meant sliming him for the purpose of humbling him before anyone else who is interested in signing him. It’s like sour grapes; making him out to be a question mark because they are aware that the Blue Jays might have them outbid. Almost giving themselves ground for not signing him.

I think he goes to Angels too, even if it’s one or two million less than Jays offered.
On Tuesday they said expect the decision and next 3-4 days, and 4th day is today. Hopefully they decide soon. Maybe Monday we’ll know?

This could be a tactic by the Red Sox to see just how much everyone is offering too. Much like the Yankees did with Teixeira. I mean there are too many pitchers that can be compared similarly to Chapman. I mean not just Randy Johnson, but even Nolan Ryan had control issues. Granted Ryan was right handed, but the issue we are talking about here is control right? Everyone knows how highly the Sox organization thinks of their pitching program in the minors too. If they don’t think a prospect with this high of a ceiling is worth the money. Then I honestly don’t know what to think.

I think the Sox are out. I really think this is going to go down between the Angels and Jays. I think for a team like the Sox they have to consider the money that it is going to take to sign their younger players (like Bucholz, Lester). It may be too much risk on a player who could flop and they could be stuck paying him. They have a lot of money tied up and don’t think they want to endure the criticism that the Hankies get to increase that even more.

Maybe, but you never know with Theo. He has money coming off the books next year and with all his talk about building his “bridge” to the younger players by signing older players to short contracts until the young guys are ready. Chapman just seems to fall into that area to me.

once everyones favourite teams are out of the sweepstakes , this is when the negative reactions come and the chapman bashing comes lol its expected, we all know he needs a year at least in the minor to work on his delievery and while he has 2 plus pitches being his fast ball and slider, needs to work on his other 3 : cutter, curveball, and changeup. Jays are more then willing with the coaches they have down in the minor leagues. yankee fans and red sox fans cant stand it that another al east team will out bid them lol good on toronto! i say take the chance at 4 5 mill a year, psh thats nothing .

Theo has made numerous moves by using stealth tactics and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this as one of them. But I keep going back to history. A hot shot commodity comes on the market and invariably a group of scouts will announce this player will be one of the greats. And suddenly more dominoes fall and the media takes a hold of this theory. Next step a group of scouts say “not a chance” and list many reasons and the media takes hold of that. So the truth lies anywhere in between next baseball god and absolute bust where the more likely ending is average player.

It comes down to a simple truth: Players are investments. There’s not just the accounting costs which not only include the contract but also the cost of acclimating and training the player, there’s also the economic/opportunity costs. Basically what else could you spend the time and money on. For me, the more I read about this kid, I can’t help but thinking $25M, the potential ending price, is too much of a risk. And I know people are now going to argue with me saying “Well it’s not your money it’s the owners money and they have plenty of it,” but again: Players are investments and baseball is a business. You don’t risk unless you feel more confident than not that the overall investment works in your favor.

jays probably feel strongly about he fact they can improve his delivery and allow him to work on his secondary pitches, with the coaches they have for developing pitchers, seems like a decent risk to me. plus they have quite alot of money to take the chance without much backlash even if he doesnt work out.

I am not sure what you do for a living, but if you aren’t an unbelievable paid consultant, I would be shocked. Seriously, think of all the billionaire owners, the gm’s and staff they hired and pay really well, that would benefit from your advice. Or do you already work for the Red Sox?

“Players are investments and baseball is a business. You don’t risk unless you feel more confident than not that the overall investment works in your favor.”

Is a 5 mill/yr investment really horrible IF you perceive the said player to be an end of the rotation guy in the bigs or a possible closer? There are a shockingly large number of pitchers on MLB rosters today that make 5mill/yr or greater that are a FAR worse investment. And yes it is actually 25 mill, not 5, but every team with such an example pays year over year wether it is the same player or a new stiff brought in.

Difference is, this guy’s upside or potential is supposed to be top end of the rotation. not end. So to be fair in comparing player investments, maybe we should include salaries all the way up to #2’s in the rotation?

According to your logic, there are a minimal number of athletes in all pro sports that are worth the investment. If all the billionaires listened, I guess we could watch poker and darts.

What are the odds that Chapman even becomes a back end starter? And for that matter at what point do you squeal and say it’s too much money? What if it was $30M? $50M? $100M? At what point do you say it’s too risky and I won’t invest? How many kids with potential to be a top player even make it out of the minors? Even with top of the line potential there is always a squeal point. For Chapman, as much as the evidence says he could be awesome, other evidence says he could be a bust.

Now here’s the part you ignored: It’s about perception. You have to believe an investment will do better than what you give up. The reason why the Red Sox and yanks spend on enormous contracts is because they feel the investment in the team will come back to them in ticket sales, merchandise, etc etc. So I ask at what point will the investment in Chapman not be worth it to you? Remember all you know is potential, not eventual outcome. Brien Taylor had potential and he cost far less. Many others had potential. So at what point will you say screw potential and walk away? My OPINION is $20M-$25M isn’t worth the potential possibility of him being a bust.

I would go to games Doc pitched. It was worth the effort. If the Jays get this kid and he amounts to something, people will start to come back. Unless it’s hockey, you have to be good to draw in T.O.. Raptors draw probably top 10 attendance. If the Jays started to win again, the days of 40k minimun in the seats is very realistic and more than likely probable. This is why in my opinion, I think a guy like this fits the exact model the new regime is building in Toronto.

As a fan of the game as well, I am very aware this guy could be the next Brian Tayor, but again as a fan, I am willing to let my Billion dollar corporate owner take that chance.

you comparing the jays to the pirates, you just lost all credibility. jays have been an above 500 club for quite a while aside form last year. The jays arent good NOW because they are rebuilding every team goes through it at some point. this is chapmans one oppurtunity to get a big contract, hes not going to be pitching with the jays next season, like you seem to think he’d be going to the minor leagues and doing the same thing you proposed for your beloved red sox. obviously you just dont want him to go to the jays because god forbid another team becomes competitve with your beloved red sox in a few years. deal with it.

So every player that doesnt sign with the Red $ox or Yank$ are idiots because they are the only teams players should play for???? Why would he blow his arm out with the Jays and not the Red Sox? The world doesnt evolve around the Sox and Yanks.

how many titles have you won in 90 years? how many have the jays won since they came in to the league, get back to me when you figure that answer out. youll never get chapman hahahaha suckers insult jays all you want it wont change that he aint gunna be with the redsox lolll YOU LOSE

I think the Sox are pulling back because of financial reasons. I mean, how much money do they even have left to spend? They finagled the Beltre and Kotchman like hell to acheive maximum savings for Luxury Tax purposes. It would seem a little counterintuitive to NOW go and sign this kid to a $20 million contract.

After reading a number of your posts there are a few observations that are clear. You are shallow-minded homer that really knows little about baseball other than your very biased and flawed logic that is grounded in the daily osmosis of every goofy red sox blog you can read. Please open your eyes and your mind to the possibility of two basic things: there are other teams in baseball other than Boston and secondly Boston does not need to sign every player that is either good right now, or has the potential to be good.

Sorry for not hitting the reply button, last thing I want to is upset you.
Obviously he’s not going to be the next Randy Johnson. It’s comparing the control issues, some not so great numbers, how long it took to develop, etc.
Sorry to break it to you but he does have secondary pitches, you OBVIOUSLY fail to see that.

If the mets were in the bidding, you’ll be all over the comparison. rofl

Sorry metsville, but you are looking pretty stupid here. Johnson was literally a 6″10 hard thrower with zero pitchability when the Expos snatched him up originally. He came up was a wild child for them and then was traded to Seattle where they basically restarted his baseball training. Minus the frame factor their stories are very similar and the comparison doesnt imply Chapman is gonig to retire with 300 wins, it merely implies that from a growth standpoint their paths were similar.

Stop trolling and using fallacy (You are an idiot for not knowing the reply button) to argue a point you clearly are weak on.