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August 26, 2016

Talent Level vs. 2016 Opponents

Happy New Uniform Unveiling Day, Hoofans! I'll have pics of the new unis here on the blog ASAP.

Meanwhile, some food for thought as we consider the 2016 season...

Talent Level vs. 2016 Opponents

It's an inexact science, ya dig? But what I did is took HALF of the 2012 recruiting ranking (to account for 5th year seniors) and HALF of the 2016 recruiting ranking (to account for the true freshmen) and then averaged them with the rankings for the 2013, 2014, and 2015 classes... to come up with a somewhat objective, 247's rankings-based average, to sorta kinda illustrate our talent level compared to our 12 opponents during the 2016 season. Hoping that this will maybe point us to an educated guess on our 2016 record, based on talent level. Ya dig?

Ignoring all of the various attrition and transfer additions to the programs, and assuming Bronco can get this team to play to its talent level (actually, science says he gets his teams to play well ABOVE their talent level, see THIS LINK), then we should go 8-4 this season. Okay, okay, the Louisville and Pitt games are toss-ups in terms of talent... So call it a range of 6-6 to 8-4 for the 2016 Hoos.

If you want to split hairs on home vs. away...

Richmond at home -- We have them outclassed in every possible way. WIN. (1-0)

@ Oregon -- LOSS. (1-1)

@ UConn -- The home field advantage is a big deal, but is it enough to overcome a talent ranking of 50+ spots? I think not. WIN. (2-1)

Pitt -- We have the slightest of slight talent edges. Can't see us going oh-fer during the October three-game homestand, so split a win between this game and the Louisville game. WIN. (4-2)

UNC -- If we give Virginia the same credit on its home field that we're giving Duke, then we gotta say we split the two games against UNC/Duke, right? I understand the Duke game is the more likely of the two games, but... WIN. (5-2)

Louisville -- This is the losing side of the Pitt/Louisville split. LOSS. (5-3) {I do totally think we leave October at 5-3, by the way.}

@ GT -- This one is tricky, because GT's recruiting looks bad, but they recruit to that system really well and tend to way overplay their talent level (see also: BYU from 2005-2015, Virginia from 2017-onward.) LOSS. (6-5)

@ VT -- Sorry guys, they have us outclassed and are playing at home. LOSS. (6-6)

By the way, better on the field or better at recruiting?

(If they're better at recruiting, expect them to underplay their talent level!)

Richmond -- ??? Oregon -- better on the field, overplay their recruiting rankingUConn -- better on the field Central Michigan -- better on the field Duke -- better at recruiting (surprising), underplay their talent levelPitt -- better at recruiting UNC -- better at recruiting Louisville -- better on the field Wake -- better at recruiting Miami -- better at recruiting GT -- better on the field VT -- better at recruiting

4 comments:

This is a list of bowls in which the ACC could be playing this year: St. Petersburg Bowl 12-26; Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit 12-26; Independence Bowl, Shreveport 12-26; Military Bowl, Annapolis 12-27; Pin Stripe Bowl, Bronx 12-28; Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando 12-28; Belk Bowl, Charlotte 12-28; Sun Bowl, El Paso 12-30; Music City Bowl, Nashville 12-30; Orange Bowl, Miami 12-30; Citrus Bowl, Orlando 12-31; and Taxpayer Bowl, Jacksonville 12-31. If the ACC has a team in contention for the national championship, that team could be playing in one or more of the big name bowls.