Poland’s new right-wing government faces international demands to roll back radical changes to the country’s institutions, but the odds that it will suffer any serious punishment from Brussels are close to zero.

The European Commission meets behind closed doors Wednesday to decide whether to place Poland under closer scrutiny for violating the bloc’s democratic norms — the start of a process that could lead to the suspension of EU voting rights.

But Brussels isn’t likely to issue any significant reprimands. Commission officials are downplaying suggestions that Brussels could bring Warsaw to heel for taking control over public media and passing a law that critics say reduces the powers of the country’s constitutional court.

“There are different positions but I don’t expect the Commission to pick a fight at this stage,” said an EU official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

That’s also the view of Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski. On Polish television Tuesday night, he said Prime Minister Beata Szydło spoke with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker about Wednesday’s meeting.

“This is a routine procedure,” Waszczykowski said. “This debate will not end with any decision.”

Here’s why the EU-Poland standoff won’t reach the breaking point:

1. The Hungary precedent

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Getty.

The EU has kept an eye on Hungary for years due to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s embrace of what he called “illiberal democracy.” His government has reduced the power of the courts, taken over state media, hiked taxes and imposed other costs on banks and unpopular foreign companies. And that was before Orbán infuriated his European counterparts with his hard line on migration.

Yet Hungary remains an EU member in good standing and still pulls in plenty of foreign investment.

European leaders, including European Parliament President Martin Schulz, warn of Poland’s “Putinization.” But the soft treatment of Hungary undermines the tough talk towards Poland, which has taken similar steps to Hungary.

Not only that, Orbán has made clear that Hungary will block any moves to sanction Poland, most of which require unanimity of EU member countries.

2. Poland is too big to isolate

The EU didn’t succeed in changing Hungary’s direction, and Poland is a bigger beast.

With almost four times Hungary’s population, Poland is one of the “big six” EU countries with a crucial political role in the bloc, and with economic heft to match.

Poland is also a crucial partner for NATO, especially at a time of worries about the threat from Russia.

Here, mutual interests may prevail.

Poland wants a larger NATO presence in the country, something Waszczykowski plans to push hard for ahead of a July NATO summit in Warsaw. Duda’s visit to Brussels Monday will have a strong NATO component: He is set to meet NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and General Philip Breedlove, the NATO supreme allied commander.

“Poland is particularly interested in preserving its ties with NATO and the U.S,” said Adriano Bosoni, Europe analyst with Stratfor, a think tank.

NATO also needs Poland.

In a recent interview with the Stars and Stripes newspaper, General Frank Gorenc, U.S. Air Force commander for operations in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East, warned that Russian missile systems based in the Kaliningrad enclave threaten NATO jets operating over parts of Poland and the Baltics.

Poland is one of the few alliance members to spend the required 2 percent of GDP on defense, and is a strategic linchpin in Central Europe.

That means there is no chance that the Warsaw summit will be called off, diplomats say.

3. The EU can’t actually do much

Brussels could invoke the so-called nuclear option of Article 7 of the EU treaties and remove the voting rights of a member who has gone astray. But it has never been used and few think there is any chance of it being imposed on Poland.

Otherwise, there are few other points of pressure.

Money could be a big one. EU funds have transformed Poland over the last decade, helping finance roads, sewage plants, ports and lots of other infrastructure.

The 2014-2020 EU budget allocates almost €106 billion for Poland. That money depends on countries fulfilling the requirements of particular programs. If that isn’t done, then disbursement can be halted, as has happened in the past with Italy, Romania and other countries.

But the money tap can’t be turned off for political reasons.

4. Poland is closing ranks

The new government stirred up domestic and foreign opposition with its rapid and controversial measures, but it has begun pushing back at criticism.

Szydło met Tuesday with leaders of opposition parties in Warsaw, the first time that’s happened since the new government came to power in October.

The parties went to war only a few weeks ago when Polish leaders rammed the controversial legislation through parliament over the objections of the opposition. So the sight of all political rivals sitting amicably around a table undercuts the view that the country’s democracy is under threat.

Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło. EPA

“We agreed that Polish issues have to be resolved here in Poland,” Szydło said after the meeting. “It’s bad that these issues were transmitted to the international arena and we’ll do everything for the situation to now calm itself.”

Foreign politicians who don’t get the message to leave the new government alone are in for a bit of a shin-kicking from senior officials like Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.

After receiving two letters from the European Commission’s first vice president, Frans Timmermans, regarding the Constitutional Tribunal and the media law, Ziobro fired back, accusing him of “unjustified accusations and unfair conclusions” and denounced the letter as “an attempt to exert pressure upon the democratically elected Parliament and Government of the sovereign Republic of Poland.”

Donald Tusk, European Council president and a former Polish prime minister, warned Tuesday that the pressure being put on Warsaw can be “counter-productive.”

“I wouldn’t like the criticism coming from the European capitals, the EU institutions, the European Commission, the European Council to be seen as an attack on Poland and Poles,” he told MEPs.

5. The government in Warsaw isn’t going anywhere

Despite protests by thousands of opponents and and strong international disapproval, the government shows no sign of budging.

“No pressure and hollering, no words … will turn us from this path,” Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of Law and Justice and by most accounts the country’s most powerful politician, told supporters on Sunday. “We will continue moving forward.”

There’s a good reason for that. The party has an outright majority in both the upper and lower houses of parliament, the first time any grouping has managed that since 1989. Kaczyński also learned a bitter lesson in 2007, when he called an early election after two years of running a coalition government and then lost. This is a government that will remain in power until 2019.

That means that Poland’s partners are going to have to make the best of the new government in Warsaw, as it’s a long-term partner.

“We have to have friendly and good relations with Poland,” Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said recently. “Poland is an important and a full member of the EU. We are at the beginning of the procedure. Now we are in discussion with Poland and I don’t want to speculate about further consequences. I don’t think we will come to that point.”

Maïa De La Baume and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this article

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Kubanek

Reason is very simple. EU is a bunch of hypocrites, nothing more. EU did not punish Hungary, it won’t punish anyone. If you want to punish anyone, dear liberals and socialists, dissolve EU. It will benefit everyone.

Posted on 1/13/16 | 10:33 AM CEST

Veritas-Semper

Yes, the media stirred-up hysteria is coming to a close. Thanks to the leadership of Prime Minister Beata Szydlo, all Poland’s political parties have closed ranks from outside intrusion. Obviously, the democratic process is alive and well in Poland and the political screaming and yelling in Poland’s Parliament and through the media only reinforces that basic fact. Who said democracy was a quiet process?

However, in this case the screaming and yelling has to do with Poland’s establishment being shoved away from the political trough at a pace that was not anticipated by any of the oligarchs in Poland. And, their corresponding ties to Brussels and Berlin are being finessed away within that democratic process by the new conservative government. Screaming and yelling is only to be anticipated.

Posted on 1/13/16 | 11:29 AM CEST

POOlish guy

Cienski,Cienski…
Poland want be “punished” becouse there is nothing to be”punished”for…
You don’t even understand simple reason ,why EK want to talk to Polish partners in EU..
I understand you are South African citizen. perhaps this is a reasonl for level of your ignorance on EU topics…

Posted on 1/13/16 | 12:35 PM CEST

Andy

I dont think that so called EU should punish Poland. There is nothing wrong with democracy in our country. I would rather watch Germany, France etc… Why our west neigbours are hiding important information about so called refugees and their actions against European counties.Why u never said anything about crime, rapes etc.. in so called independent media. Is this your kind of democracy? If so, Polish people will never agree with this EU hypocrites. Europe is on the edge of new war by the way it is a matter of time. Mrs Merkel is gonna be a new “Furrer” -and this is really sad. Yes guys :Protect your children and women not our democracy.

Posted on 1/13/16 | 12:54 PM CEST

Tom

Frustrated left-liberals… 😀 The tide is turning fast.

Go Poland, go Hungary! Down with “politically correct” liberalism!

Posted on 1/13/16 | 2:42 PM CEST

Nesse

Nothing new or surprising in these comments. But they make me laugh though. Speaking of ‘EU hypocracy’ and Merkel as the new ‘Furrer’ (old scars never fade so it seems). Some Poles seem to forget all too easy that joining the EU brought (and still brings) them a huge increase in living standards by pouring in billions of euro’s every year. But as living standards increase, the level of gratitude and solidarity (pun intended) seems to decrease rapidly and nationalism is always an easy outlet. It would help if any type of criticism which comes Poland’s way wouldn’t just be seen as an unwelcome invasion of outsider ideas and opinions. It’s just criticism…. deal with it as a grown up. Some of it could actually be meant well.

Posted on 1/13/16 | 3:07 PM CEST

P.

If found to be below standard then Poland should have its rights suspended on a sliding scale. Hungary should also be made to understand what gentlemanly agreements really mean. If these countries want to be naughty teenagers and continue to stand by their destructive approach to Europe then they deserve to suffer the consequences. Total exclusion from the EU would be premature, since the populations might also have some trump cards and recover from their electoral mistakes. It might help, when this ugly situation is resolved, to disqualify senior civil servants from possibilities for political office or affiliation – for life – leaving the job to suitable, skilled apolitical experts who serve only elected politicians. Unfortunately politics doesn’t attract many competent candidates. Once elected, politicians become unqualified legislators who draft too many, poorly drafted laws. PiS is largely incompetent, as evidenced by their choice of Foreign Minister.

Posted on 1/13/16 | 4:52 PM CEST

LOOK AT SWEDEN

Poland is having some minor government issues with this new gov but do people even know or notice what unlawful things are happening in Sweden? Leftist media censors the news, police refuse to report rapes on children, the country is slowly collapsing but this is ok by the EU’s view… Sweden is becoming a 3rd world refugee hole but it’s a LEFTIST 3rd world immigrant hole that’s failing miserably so this makes it A-OK. No reason to worry about Swedinistan or raise eyebrows as to what’s happening in that country.

Cade Foster

“Stratfor a think tank” You mean a private intelligence firm that predicted Russian involvement in Ukraine and Syria before governments did! And that media love ripping off to pretend they had their own sources. At least this article attributes the info to them this time.

Posted on 1/16/16 | 12:22 AM CEST

Erik

Of course Poland will be punished. Not by the feckless EU, but by the market. S&P was the first. Just look at the Złoty. First, they went to work on the courts, then the media. And now, even after their financial downgrade, they have gone after privacy rights of their citizens. Just look at the other posts here. So many by PiS bots, just like the Russians do with their FSB funded Putler bots.

In Polish, this is called a Pucz.

The left wing media gets them wrong. They aren’t a right wing party. Conservative moralists, for sure, but not right wing. They are imposing taxes on the banks and supermarkets to fund their socialist agenda, and they are true nationalists.

The last major European party to preform a pucz were also national socialists. They called it a Putsch though.

There will be more punishment to some. Moody’s and Fitch are next.

Then, when the Polish people get sick of political oppression and economic disaster caused by these fools, they will throw them out.

Posted on 1/16/16 | 8:51 PM CEST

knight

The defamation campaign against Poland will not work because it is just that: a Polenhass campaign coming from Germany. Global companies operating in Poland, including German companies, are being made to finally pay their taxes in Poland and hence the fury. You want to do business in Poland, pay taxes like the Polish companies do. The rest is just Polenhass campaign based on lies. We in Poland are not afraid, we are used to German bulling and defamation, this will not affect us.
in fact, this Polenhass campaign showed that the press in the so called free world has limitations and is dependent on big business.