Winter meetings go off without missing a beat

For one thing, beat reporters can’t be fans of a team or have favorite players. They can’t cheer in the press box. I wouldn’t survive ten minutes at a Reds game under those constraints.

When beat writers report positive news about the team, they’re accused of being homers. If one dare says anything negative, he or she risks getting shut out by the people whom they rely on for the material they depend on to do their job effectively.

Not to imply the job of a beat reporter is easy. Players interviewed before or after games mostly speak in well practiced clichés. Managers and front office personnel do everything they can to not create news. Beat reporters are compelled by modern norms to have Twitter accounts where they are confronted by every cranky, misinformed fan and countless crackpot ideas.

The Cincinnati Reds just participated in baseball’s winter meetings in Orlando. The Reds’ beat writers were there. I’m sure they had to be. But as best as I can tell, they sit around all day waiting for their (maybe) thirty minutes with the general manager where he, of course, tells them only what he wants them to report.

Then the beats each dutifully report the same story. They tweet it. They blog it. They write a newspaper column on it. The same, exact information. Nothing less. And unfortunately, nothing more. In the case of the Reds reporters, the beat writers didn’t break a single story or report a solitary rumor all week. I couldn’t find one example of “a source tells me … ” or “hearing rumors that … ”

That’s not their fault, is it?

Are beat reporters allowed to contact players or their agents? For instance, could Mark Sheldon hit up Brandon Phillips and ask him about being traded to New York or Los Angeles? Haven’t they cultivated “well placed sources” or “front office personnel in a position” to know?

Occasionally, the beats offer opinions on the teams they devote their professional lives to covering, as one did this afternoon (Is it Time to Consider Trading Aroldis Chapman?). I’m eager to read them. I hold out hope their access and focus conveys unique insight.

But immersion doesn’t always produce meaningful expertise. Maybe the beat reporters get too close to the situation, or eventually become too susceptible to or numbed by the party line.

For example, John Fay wrote Why I Think Dusty Baker’s Job is Safe three days before Dusty Baker was fired. In today’s column, Fay misreported or misunderstood Chapman’s free agency date — off by two years. He also described the contract option in 2015 as a team option when it’s a player option. Fay himself reported it correctly when Chapman was signed.

A friend of mine pointedly asked, “Isn’t John Fay’s entire job to inform people about the Reds and a big part of that this time of year is understanding the trade situation for their players? How could he be so wrong about Aroldis Chapman’s contract?”

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43 thoughts on “Winter meetings go off without missing a beat”

Infante is unofficially ‘off the table’ with a 4 year, $30MM contract with…KCR! The poor pinstripes get shut out. So you think Cashman will try to sign Drew now? I would really hate for Cashman to have to come knocking on WJ’s door with hat in hand and egg on his face.

Biggest thing I’ve wondered about with the Reds’ beat writers is this: Whenever there was ‘breaking news,’ I didn’t hear media say ‘according to the Cincinnati Enquirer or whatever, it was USA Today “breaking” the news that Votto got his contract extended. Did USA Today get it from Fay? Both papers are Gannett papers, so maybe….. When I was waiting for Walt to help the Reds at midseason a few years ago, did the Reds’ beat writers break the story of Broxton coming in? I think I heard that on the MLB tv channel, unsure who was first. … I wonder whether the front office has little trouble ignoring the Reds beat writers …

@vegastypo: In fairness, it doesn’t seem like Cincinnati has particularly motivated beat reporters. They never ask the tough questions. They never deviate off script of what the player/GM/manager/coach/owner wants to answer. They never seem to have their own inside sources to get early scoops.

It actually made me laugh when BP got so upset about a single tweet about his OBP vs Frazier’s OBP. Cincinnati is like the cotton candy playland of media. Maybe BP didn’t want to be traded to the NYY because he realizes the New York media would absolutely eat him alive. Prefers to be a big fish in a little pond.

The Enquirer coverage has been underwhelming to say the least for some time now. The beat reporters seemed cowed by Dusty Baker, and wouldn’t risk his wrath, though even the average fan could see Baker didn’t know what the hell he was doing half the time. I was a beat reporter for many years and it’s a difficult dance because you know you have to go back and deal with the same people the day after you write something they may not like. But it can be done. You can’t be afraid to step on toes and take the consequences. You nailed it in this piece. Good reporters don’t wait for scraps from the people in charge. They develop other sources and come up with stories, then go to the powers that be for confirmation or denial. I rarely see that happening with Fay or Rosecrans.

I’m not sure if John Fay was at the winter meetings. I think C. Rosencrans was… Whatever… There was nothing to report. Without bad mouthing those guys, I just want to say that I enjoy this forum. I also enjoy hearing what they write. My guess is there is no financial incentive to go outside the box. There isn’t a competing local paper anymore. Besides, what I really crave as a reader is reckless speculation. It’s more fun… And hearing the stupid ideas blasted by peers often times helps give a better perspective on what is more likely than not. I just look at what the Cardinals have already done and feel like pushing the abort button and building again. Everything hinges on a healthy Cueto and I’ve lost faith in that.

@rewquiop: I’d say it hinges more on Votto being 2012 Votto, Ludwick finding the fountain of youth, Frazier finding his mojo, and BP not being a horrible clubhouse influence and worrying less about RBI and more about being an above average batter.

@ToddAlmighty: Well… those are certainly concerns too. I’ll take Votto any old way, Ludwick will return with some strength, Frazier had a sophomore slump, and Phillips wants to win as much as anybody. Seriously, the Reds have some good players. Adjust the batting order a tad, stick with it, and pray for healthy pitching. I know a lot of folks here don’t want to worry about Cueto… its too terrifying to think about. I’m just not so sure the Reds would be trading low right now on him… I think it can get lower.

Regarding Fay and Rosecrans, I understand that we cannot count on them for the “scoops,” so to speak, in most cases. However, I believe theirs to be very difficult jobs. Given the slow death of print media, they spend quite a bit of their time doing things to “diversify” in areas that they aren’t necessarily adept at, like Fay with Twitter and both of them with the video segments for the website. In most cases, these seem rather contrived (to me at least) and detract from their ability to do traditional reporting. Regarding the development of sources, they have to walk quite the tightrope. To avoid being shut out completely, they essentially have to cow tow to the organization in most cases. Neither of them are the heavyweights with a long history that enables them to basically demand that the manager, GM, owner, or whomever respond to them. I can only think that many of the contacts that each of them have with the Reds are either unanswered or blown off with ambiguity. It is also important to realize that the Enquirer itself is a complete mess and it has, for some time now, not had the cache that many other papers have. So, short of saying that Fay and Rosecrans are doing a fine job, I can nonetheless empathize with their situations.

@pinson343: The Old Cossack just cringes every time Edinson Volquez is mentioned. Except for a greedy roll of the dice by Edinson, the Reds would be on the hook for another albatros contract with Edinson. Fortunately the baseball gods were looking out for the Reds and he turned down the contract extension the Reds offered.

Regarding Infante, I cannot help but think that the Yankees have now been left with few other options than to do the Gardner for Phillips swap. If this is the case, I believe it will be the domino that causes several other things to happen.

-I would like to see Leake sent to Seattle for Nick Franklin (I actually think Seattle would do this with little thought). Having Franklin would give the Reds a second base prospect (think a poor man’s Matt Carpenter, he has raked in the minors) who can play this year and, incidentally, a backup shortstop (one less roster spot to dedicate to that). Schumaker (and Frazier for that matter)could fill in at second from time to time if need be. Gardner, BHam, and Ludwick could man CF and LF. Against RHP, an OF of Gardner, BHam, and Bruce would be excellent on defense as well. When he’s not in the lineup, BHam provides the weapon in the later innings that we got a glimpse of last September.

-Then, Walt should sign Bronson to a two year deal, to fill the role that Leake would have filled.

-Then, deal Chapman for prospects (two or three solid prospects will do it).

-With that money, sign one (or two-I like Hanrahan and A. Bailey on a buy low basis) of the many closers (but don’t name any pitcher in the bullpen the “closer”) on the free agent market at the moment. With that supply, the price has to be reasonable. I would be fine with Perez, Gregg, Axford (with Price working his mojo) on a shorter deal as the arm to replace Chapman (again, with no named “closer).

-Sign Youkilis to be the backup 3B/1B and pay Hanahan 1M to play for the Bats. He would be an excellent PH option when those LH specialists come into the game and would also prevent some of those unfavorable matchups if the other managers know he is an option off the bench.

@RedLeg75: By most accounts, BHam was defensively challenged as an infielder. His athleticism (speed) is a huge factor in center, not so much at second. And I would like Gardner, but as a one-year rental I don’t believe he’s worth any prospects at all, because I don’t believe that by adding him and subtracting BP the Reds become a team with a legitimate shot at the WS>

I also like dealing Chapman for prospects, I am tired of this starter/closer business and it’s time to just get something for him rather than ask him to pitch like 65 innings (only like 20 of those being high leverage) and doing an absolutely league average job at it. I’d be fine throwing Hoover in as closer or whatever. No need to spend money on it, the Reds need to be spending less on their bullpen, not more.

Come back home, Kevin. You know you wanna win something in Cincinnati!

@ToddAlmighty: Why not allow Chapman to close, but also make him the next guy up in the rotation if somebody else goes down? This would allow us to give him his way by keeping him as a closer, while also allowing us a chance to use him as a starter on a “temporary” basis. While I like him as a closer, I definitely see the logic in at least testing the waters elsewhere to ensure we are maximizing our value, as he could be even better in another role. There has to be some compromise here, otherwise I would say C-YA to him for not being a team player.

I still think the Yanks will stick with johnson at second over signing Brandon. Just don’t see it working. While the Kemp thing was fantasy, it seemed like the mosst legit option. I don’t see Phillips going anywhere.

@ToddAlmighty: Thank god Walt is the general manager so your talking let me get this straight you want to give up our most desirable major league arm and our 2nd best minor league pitching prospect for a left handed hitter who has had 1 good year in the majors and a 2nd base prospect who has yet to prove himself in the major leagues I am not sure I would do a Travieso for Franklin straight up

@hits56: Our “most desirable major league arm” pitched 63.2 innings last year. Domonic Brown had one good year, but he’s only gotten one year of extensive playing time. He finally got more than 200 AB and he excelled.

As for the 2nd best minor league pitching prospect, he’s a prospect… at A level. He still has a long way to go, it’s not like he’s a sure thing down there at A. (Where he put up a 6.7 K/9 and 1.347 WHIP. Meanwhile you could pick up a 22-year-old 2B who hit .324/.440/.472 last year in AAA and despite being a *Slightly* sub-par hitter in his playing time in the majors (96 OPS+) he still managed 2.3 WAR in 102 games.

That’s insanity if you wouldn’t trade a A Prospect for a major league ready 22-year-old 2B straight up.

@ToddAlmighty: We cannot trade away two of our top 6 prospects, and Chapman, and Phillips in a deal unless we’re getting something like Trout and Price back. We will be counting on Travieso to take a spot in the rotation in about 3 years (or less). Outside of Cingrani we don’t have any current starter locked in past 2015. Cueto has a club option for 15, and Leake and Latos will be in their last arb years.

As it stands now, inn 2016, barring no extensions, we will need Stephenson to come in as advertised, Cingrani to keep improving, and have Travieso, Rogers, and Holmberg ready to contribute to the rotation. Other guys may step up, and it’s a long way to go to even get to these hypotheticals, but I have a hard time seeing both Winker and Travieso going in a trade at this point.

Now one or the other? Sure, maybe. Winker would be more “expendable” because of BHAm, YRod, and Ervin (and to a lesser extent Lutz and LaMarre). But he’s a better bet to make it than every other hitter other than Ervin, IMO.

@hotto4votto: The Reds traded more than that when they got Latos, and he was just one player. Sure they’re 2 of the top 6, but they’re both at A level. That means they’re nowhere near sure things.

Meanwhile you pick up a 25-year-old LF with 30+ HR ability, a 22-year-old major league ready 2B who hit .324/.440/.472 in AAA last year and had 2.3 WAR in 100 or so major league games, and a AAA level 22-year-old catcher who hit .270/.342/.430 in AAA last season so then they don’t have to have career 75 OPS+, 0.6 WAR Pena as your other catcher, and Miller as your emergency catcher.

Prospects for Major League ready young talent EVERY time. One may or may not be able to help your team in 3-4 years, the other is ready to help your team right now. It’s not like it’s a rental you’re trading for. You get 6 years of two, and 4 years of the other helping your team… or you hope and pray that in 3-4 years you get some help from these prospects.

@ToddAlmighty: The difference is that you don’t trade that many PROSPECTS for single prospects coming back. Nick Franklin and DomBrown are not worth Chapman, Travieso, Soto, HRod, Buckley, AND Winker. My main problem with the trade is with trading Winker, to be honest. The others I’m alright with trading, but Winker is going to be one of our top OF prospects.

@rhayex: Yeah, they’re not worth it alone, but you have to take into account the team sending a couple million each over to the Yankees. So it’s not JUST the player, it’s the player and money.

Winker is indeed really tempting to keep, but I think he’s the odd man out right now. You have Hamilton at CF for 6 years, Bruce at RF for 4 years (going ahead and assuming they’ll pick up the 2017 option when the time comes), and with that trade, you’d have Brown at LF for 4 years. So all 3 OF spots should be okay for at least 4 years.

Then you have Ervin rising through the minors faster than Winker since he’s a college draftee rather than a high school draftee, so he came immediately more polished (Winker finished his drafted season in Rk ball, Ervin finished his drafted season in A). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ervin finish the 2014 season in AAA. Or at least start the 2015 season in AAA. Lets go with him starting the 2015 season in AAA and spending all the way until November in the minors (getting called up for the Reds postseason run).

Then 2016 rolls around. Zack Cozart is 30 years old, in his second year of arbitration. Do the Reds want a 30-year-old SS at that time? Has his defense started to decline, rendering his sub-par offense no longer acceptable? The Reds could then move Hamilton from CF to SS, clearing CF for Ervin. Then you have 2 years left of Brown, 6 of Ervin, and 2 of Bruce. Unless Winker is going to wait until 2018 to make his major league debut (he’d be 25), then in that scenario, there’d be no space for him so he theoretically wouldn’t be missed.

@rhayex: Also, Soto was part of the JR Murphy trade in that scenario, not the Brown or Franklin parts.

It’s also just pretty important I feel to have a younger lineup filled with talent, and not old former Cardinals. The starting 8 players for the Reds in 2014 will be a combined 228 years old (28.5 year average) that’s WITH projecting the 23-year-old Hamilton to start.. but that’s not even counting the 32-year-old Pena, 34-year-old Schumaker, 34-year-old Hannahan lurking on the bench. Heck, even Heisey turned 29 today.

The Reds will have to get younger eventually, might as well try and make that effort now.

Am I the only Reds fan that sees the value in Leake? This guy is gonna be a constant in the rotation for many years and because of his “lack of flash” will remain affordable for some time. I like his consistency in replacing Arroyo and putting up 10-15 wins every year with little injury issues. It seems ever since we shipped out Travis Wood everyone always mentions getting rid of Leake next. KEEP HIM! Homer, as much as I hate to see him leave, the real trade chip is Homer. I just don’t see him being someone the Reds can afford 2015. Nor do I see any signs of him WANTING to sign with the Reds. I still believe Homer and B.P. are gonna be gone before the start of spring. The news will come out of the blue for the very reason stated at the beginning of this thread. Fay and his gang of Jimmy Olsen’s wont have any clue its coming.

@hydeman: I agree that Mike Leake has plenty of value, for the reasons you state. The affordability edge may not be as great as you imply, however. This season, he’s estimated to make roughly $6 million while Homer Bailey will make $9 million. The Reds have Leake under team control for one more season, and he can expect to earn a raise through arbitration or negotiation.

Leake may turn into exactly the kind of pitcher that Bronson Arroyo has and that would be valuable. But, he’ll earn less as a free agent than pitchers like Mat Latos and Homer Bailey because he isn’t quite as good of a pitcher.

I could see a team putting more value on Leake’s two years of team control than Homer Bailey’s one year — just as you seem to be doing. If they are looking for solid back-end pitchers, Leake would be a match. That’s why I think some people are for trading Leake rather than Homer.

The downside of Leake is how well his low K/9 plays against the stronger teams. Would the Reds have confidence pitching him in the post-season? As good of a year as he had in 2013, many of us were still worried about him pitching at the end of the season.

In an ideal world, the Reds could throw Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman and Cingrani and trade Leake. Bailey would be the only one to leave at the end of 2014 and Stephenson might be ready then.

@hydeman: I agree that Mike Leake has plenty of value, for the reasons you state. The affordability edge may not be as great as you imply, however. This season, he’s estimated to make roughly $6 million while Homer Bailey will make $9 million. The Reds have Leake under team control for one more season, and he can expect to earn a raise through arbitration or negotiation.

Leake may turn into exactly the kind of pitcher that Bronson Arroyo has and that would be valuable. But, he’ll earn less as a free agent than pitchers like Mat Latos and Homer Bailey because he isn’t quite as good of a pitcher.

I could see a team putting more value on Leake’s two years of team control than Homer Bailey’s one year — just as you seem to be doing. If they are looking for solid back-end pitchers, Leake would be a match. That’s why I think some people are for trading Leake rather than Homer.

The downside of Leake is how well his low K/9 plays against the stronger teams. Would the Reds have confidence pitching him in the post-season? As good of a year as he had in 2013, many of us were still worried about him pitching at the end of the season.

In an ideal world, the Reds could throw Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman and Cingrani and trade Leake. Bailey would be the only one to leave at the end of 2014 and Stephenson might be ready then.

@Steve…I agree with your assessment and always enjoy your informative opinion, I still like the old school intangibles and look for value and what we can expect to keep. Leake is someone with great value that I think we can keep. As long as we have a strong 3, i.e Latos Cueto Bailey and or Cingrani, Leake is a great fit. So please can we just let him pitch and quit offering him up for EVERY trade possibility. LOL!

Players on the Reds and their tradability (value meets replaceability)

Chapman: Great value as he likely has one of the best arms in baseball. He’ll be an exciting sell to the fans and is easily promotable in the media. Many teams value the closer role, and he’s electric more often than not. His contract (as he enters into arbitration won’t be unreasonable for the value he provides. Replaceable because, well, he’s a closer and at the end of the day a league average one. We have a very solid BP with other guys capable of closing out games, Hoover, Marshall, Broxton, LeCure. We also have a lot of money tied into the BP and could use the salary relief there to address other needs. If he’s not going to start for us, then it’s time to ship him off.

Bailey: Great value as he would slot into most teams top 3. Keeps improving and is going to be relatively cheap on his one year deal. He’s better than any pitcher left on the FA market. Even if he walks at the end of the year, he’s almost assuredly going to be tied to a comp pick. Replaceable because we’re likely going to lose him next year. If we don’t improve the offense in some way, shape, or form we aren’t likely to compete with Pitt/StL this year anyway. The main reason he’s replaceable is that we have Arroyo sitting out there to bring back into the fold and some young guys on their way in Stephenson, Rogers, Holmberg. He becomes less replaceable if Arroyo signs elsewhere.

Leake: Great value as a back end starter. Dependable and getting better each year. As far as starters go, he’s going to be affordable over the next two years. He has two years of control. Would probably improve his numbers pitching out west in their big ball parks. Replaceable: At this point he’s sill, at best the Reds #4 starter, and in actuality is the 5th. For the same reasons we could move on without Homer, we could for Leake. A lot of the replaceability for next year would rely on bringing back Arroyo, or bringing in one of the FA pitchers on a short deal.

Phillips: Good value as a defensive 2B and a versatile hitter. His contract is going to look alright by comparison to the ones being signed this offseason. Even in a decline it should be steady (not Uggla-like). Charismatic personality that the fans will connect with. The flashy plays also help in that regard. Replaceable because his offense is below league average now and trending down, and his defense, while still very good is trending down as well. In house we already have Schumaker who would appear to make a great platoon option at 2B and HRod who is waiting for a chance. There are also several low-cost options on the FA market in Turner, Ellis, Roberts, Young, etc, and some of those can even play SS.

Obviously we have other trade chips as well, but those are the ones that I can see moving the needle a little bit for us and getting a solid return. I haven’t included Bruce/Votto etc because they are simply not replaceable for our offense.

Criticizing Chapman for being league-average as a closer is attacking the wrong windmill. The closer principle, by nature, advocates league average. Anything else would be (a.) perfection or (b.) terrible.

Anybody on the pitching staff could be “league average” in closing out games.

This is a rather silly/petty observation, but if you don’t re-sign Bronson, and trade Leake, the semi-production that we used to get out of the #9 hole will be awful. When you combined Cozart, Hannigan and the P spot, we had little if any production out of the bottom of the order. Mes will help vs Hanigan, but taking out Leake and Arroyo weakens this lineup even more than just the loss of Choo.

@Bob Purkey: Suprisingly enough, Bronson had the lowest average of any starting pitcher and didn’t drive in anyone last year. Cingrani did quite respectable at .250, although he had a much smaller sample size. I think your point is valid, however. Especially when you look at both Arroyo and Leake’s ability to sacrifice and be used as a pinch runner so you don’t have to burn a bench guy.

Steve;
Your discussion about the beat writers left out 2 issues that are real in the print media business; Retirement and cost. Fay is doing his best to keep his job (and retirement) and Rosecrans just wanted to get a job to pay the bills. I have found that I can follow the Reds without the beat writers. I watch every Reds game and do not need the two beat writers to answer what happened. The Enquirer, like other print media outlets, is struggling for revenue and is making weak attempts to catch up (Videos, podcasts, round tables) but cannot add the professionals that are needed to make these attempts a viable alternative for subscribers or advertisers. Camera presence is not something print people understand.
The discussion about trading Chapman is spot on. At this point he is a head case waiting to get an audience. He is more valuable in a trade than he is pitching less than 90 innings. The contract at this point only inhibits the reds in his trade because he is cheap now and the Reds will let him walk in the future for the draft choice. Another year of average performance can only dilute his value as a closer. Some have pointed out that he is a younger version of the old Cordero, an adventure every other night. The maturity and culture change issues are bigger than the Reds thought. This is a case that you can gain by subtraction.