Running down the new Mariners as spring training hits

Jack Zduriencik, right, has given Chuck Armstrong, left and manager Don Wakamatsu, center, a lot of changes this offseason. (Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)

Believe Big is the new Mariners-sponsored 2010 mantra. The changes have been big.

Only two 2009 Opening Day starters will be on the field when 2010 starts. Franklin Gutierrez and (gasp!) Jose Lopez are expected to be out there April 5 in Oakland. Ichiro was hurt at the start of last season, so he doesn’t count in this equation.

With the manic offseason over and the players trickling into camp in Peoria, Ariz., here is a look at the Mariners by position, a couple projected lineups and a guess at the rotation and bullpen:

1st base
2009 Opening Day starter: Russell Branyan.2010 likely starter: Casey Kotchman. Zduriencik brought in Kotchman for the steadiness of his glove and potential in his bat. He takes over the one spot the Mariners received power from last season –Branyan hit 31 homers — despite never hitting more than 14 home runs in a season. Kotchman strikes out much less than Branyan did, but has a career on-base percentage of just .337.2010 likely backup: Ryan Garko. The most recent acquisition, Garko will be used to face left-handed pitching as a first baseman and designated hitter.

2nd base
2009 Opening Day starter: Jose Lopez2010 likely starter: Jose Lopez. Perhaps the most reviled player to have 96 RBIs in the history of baseball. Every offseason move was followed by conjecture of how the Mariners could ship out Lopez who was third among second baseman in RBIs last season and sixth in home runs. His career on-base percentage (.303) is terrible, and no newfangled acronym to describe a defensive metric is necessary to assess that part of his game. Still, he has some pop and everything the Mariners may not like about Lopez are the same things other organizations won’t like about him. The signing of Orlando Hudson in Minnesota fortunately put to rest the preposterous notion the Mariners could trade Lopez for starting pitcher Francisco Liriano.2010 likely backup: Chone Figgins/Jack Hannahan. Dustin Ackley can’t be ready soon enough. Zduriencik said the Mariners will be taking a long look at Ackley’s ability to play second base.

Shortstop
2009 Opening Day starter: Yuniesky Betancourt2010 likely starter: Jack Wilson. Wilson was part of the Mariners extension-palooza during the offseason. Zduriencik mentioned him at nearly all the news conferences for other players. Wilson’s age (32) and ability to get on base (career .310 OBP, .263 last season in 31 games with the Mariners) are underlying concerns. Like Lopez, Wilson rarely walks, but, unlike Lopez, also has no power. It’s all about his glove with any hitting a bonus.2010 likely backup: Jack Hannahan.

How much will the Mariners get from Ken Griffey Jr. this season? (Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)

3rd base
2009 Opening Day starter: Adrian Beltre2010 likely starter: Chone Figgins. Figgins will replace Adrian Beltre bringing near equal, if a different style of, defense. Beltre was famous for stopping and relying on his arm and is recognized as one of the best in baseball at charging bunts and throwing on the run. Figgins was ranked just ahead of Beltre in zone rating last season.2010 likely backup: Hannahan. Of the 52 games Hannahan played last season for Seattle, 33 were at third base. Hannahan had an UZR of 12.1 at third base last season for the Athletics and Mariners. For comparison sake, a healthy Mike Lowell rated an 11.1 in 2008 for the Red Sox.

Catcher
2009 Opening Day starter: Kenji Johjima2010 likely starter: Rob “Iron Man” Johnson. Mariners trainer Rick Griffin was asked if the new hip surgery Johnson received on both sides in the offseason had any chance to be named for Johnson, a la Tommy John, and he laughed. Johnson shook his head. Three surgeries, the two hips and left wrist, have been completed on Johnson whom the Mariners say will be eased into things at spring training. The club’s goal is for Johnson to be ready by Opening Day. Johnson says he will be ready before that. We’ll see if Johnson’s fixed hips and wrist allow him to up his woeful offense from last season to compliment his skill and savvy behind the plate.2010 likely backup: Adam Moore. Also in the mix will be veteran Josh Bard and Guillermo Quiroz. Ryan Garko is also a former catcher and said he spoke to Zduriencik about playing catcher if necessary. This is the most unsettled position in the field.

Left field
2009 Opening Day starter: Endy Chavez2010 likely starter: Milton Bradley. The first huge gamble of Zduriencik’s short tenure in Seattle will get a shot in left and to DH. Bradley has never played more than 40 games in a single year in left, and that happened back in 2007 with the Padres in expansive Petco Park. His Ultimate Zone Rating was -0.1 that year. Much like everything else about Bradley’s play, he’s had his ups and downs in the outfield. In 2006, he played right field for Oakland and had an UZR of 8.1. Playing right field in 2009 in Wrigley Field, Bradley posted a -4.1 UZR.2010 likely backup: Ryan Langerhans/Eric Byrnes. Both Langerhans and Byrnes can play multiple outfield positions. This assumes Michael Saunders starts the season in Triple-A Tacoma.

Center field
2009 Opening Day starter: Franklin Gutierrez2010 likely starter: Franklin Gutierrez. Skilled, congenial, good looking, extended. What doesn’t this guy have? Zduriencik is hoping Gutierrez continues to grow into his power this season. Gutierrez hits prime time when he turns 27 on Feb. 21. Expectations are a more prominent spot in the lineup and the continuation of his nickname, “Death to Flying Things.”2010 likely backup: Byrnes/Langerhans. See above.

2010 possible rotation
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Luke French/Doug Fister/Garrett Olson/Jason Vargas
*Eventually Erik Bedard?Comment: It’s the back end of the rotation that is a question. If Bedard returns early, like May, which is an enormous if, that bumps Snell down to the fifth slot. Until then, it’s going to be touch-and-go at the end of the rotation much like last season. Boston’s fifth starter is Clay Buchholz. New York’s fifth guy is Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The Angels’ last starter is Ervin Santana. Get the picture?