(A Committee of Correspondence)

19 October 2009

"Show Time" for the Pakistan Army

"Taliban spokesman Azam Tari said the guerrillas had inflicted “heavy casualties” on the army, the Associated Press reported yesterday. “We will defend our land till our last man and our last drop of our blood,” the agency quoted him as saying. “This is a war bound to end in the defeat of the Pakistan army.”

The army has said it expects to complete the offensive in six to eight weeks, though today Abbas said he could not say how long it would last.

“This fight could be longer and harder than any the army has taken on so far,” said Ashraf Ali, director of the FATA Research Center, an Islamabad think-tank that studies the tribal areas, including Waziristan.

“The Waziristan terrain is much tougher for the army and better for guerrilla-style fighters,” Ali said. He added that the Taliban targeted in the campaign “are more experienced and trained than the ones in Swat,” the northern valley the army recaptured in a 10-week battle that ended in July.

Even a determined offensive may not crush the Mehsud faction or its allies.

The Taliban will “split into small groups and harass the strangers in a terrain which the Mehsuds know well,” said Bahukutumbi Raman at the Chennai, India-based Institute for Topical Studies. Pakistan is likely to face a new round of terrorist attacks in cities far from the fighting, he said. " Bloomberg

What is to be feared in this situation is that the Pashtun tribesmen in South Waziristan might fight the Pakistan army to a standstill. This could happen. These men are fighting on their own terrain, under their own traditional leaders, for their own homes. The terrain is very tough for a conventional army designed to fight India in maneuver warfare down on the plains to the east.

An army failure to dominate the situation would strengthen the Islamic zealots in the general Pakistan population and threaten the stability of the government.

If the United States has played a significant role in pressuring Pakistan into this operation we may have future reason to regret our actions. pl

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"Show Time" for the Pakistan Army

"Taliban spokesman Azam Tari said the guerrillas had inflicted “heavy casualties” on the army, the Associated Press reported yesterday. “We will defend our land till our last man and our last drop of our blood,” the agency quoted him as saying. “This is a war bound to end in the defeat of the Pakistan army.”

The army has said it expects to complete the offensive in six to eight weeks, though today Abbas said he could not say how long it would last.

“This fight could be longer and harder than any the army has taken on so far,” said Ashraf Ali, director of the FATA Research Center, an Islamabad think-tank that studies the tribal areas, including Waziristan.

“The Waziristan terrain is much tougher for the army and better for guerrilla-style fighters,” Ali said. He added that the Taliban targeted in the campaign “are more experienced and trained than the ones in Swat,” the northern valley the army recaptured in a 10-week battle that ended in July.

Even a determined offensive may not crush the Mehsud faction or its allies.

The Taliban will “split into small groups and harass the strangers in a terrain which the Mehsuds know well,” said Bahukutumbi Raman at the Chennai, India-based Institute for Topical Studies. Pakistan is likely to face a new round of terrorist attacks in cities far from the fighting, he said. " Bloomberg

What is to be feared in this situation is that the Pashtun tribesmen in South Waziristan might fight the Pakistan army to a standstill. This could happen. These men are fighting on their own terrain, under their own traditional leaders, for their own homes. The terrain is very tough for a conventional army designed to fight India in maneuver warfare down on the plains to the east.

An army failure to dominate the situation would strengthen the Islamic zealots in the general Pakistan population and threaten the stability of the government.

If the United States has played a significant role in pressuring Pakistan into this operation we may have future reason to regret our actions. pl