YOU have to laugh. Five days to go before the start of one of the most unpredictable sporting events of them all and there they are, England, being quoted as 7-4 favourites for the title.

I can offer three explanations. It could be that the bookmakers know something astonishingly significant that none of the rest of us do.

It may possibly be they are just feeling unusually mean in the tough economic climate.

Then of course they might just be trying to develop a sense of humour.

Whatever, I’d strongly advise you to keep your money in your pocket when it comes to that one.

And I say that because as we approach the 2011 version of northern hemisphere rugby’s pride and joy, the outcome remains every bit as difficult to forecast as ever.

Sure, there have been periods where one nation has occupied the ascendancy, Wales in the 1970s, England in the 1990s and the early years of the new millennium.

But even in those times, unlikely heroes emerged to make mugs of those who had gone with strident predictions in the build-up... Scott Gibbs, Wembley 1999 anyone?

So where do we stand as the tournament looms once more?

England, no doubt, appear to be the coming force, even if what they have produced in the last six months barely seems to justify the shortness of their odds.

Admittedly they’ve clocked up two wins against Australia, home and away, but, like Wales, they came up short against the All Blacks and South Africa and, like Wales, have suffered injuries to key men.

Martin Johnson’s men seemed to have patented a new, faster style in the autumn, with Chris Ashton’s length-of-the-field try against the Wallabies seeming to typify it.

However, the way they were mugged by the Boks suggests caution is required, and they come to Cardiff for the opening game on Friday with plenty of uncertainties swirling around them.

If you fancy a bit more fun for your money, then I would steer you towards the 14-1 being offered in a variety of places for Scotland.

Before you spit your tea all over the carpet, remember, this is for the title, not the Grand Slam.

Under Andy Robinson, Scotland are showing signs of improvement even if they still desperately need to master the art of scoring tries.

Yes, they were trounced 49-3 by New Zealand, but the way they responded in beating South Africa showed a team 100 per cent behind their coach.

It is far from inconceivable that they could go to Paris and beat France on the opening weekend.

Les Bleus will still be licking the wounds of the 59-16 hiding the Aussies inflicted on them before Christmas, and if the Scots can keep it tight and get Dan Parks some good sights at goal, then a first win on French soil since Gavin Hastings stormed underneath the posts in the final minute of the 1995 encounter is a real possibility.

So what of the Irish, who look decent value at 7-2?

Well, you have to be excited by their potential, if only they can find some consistency.

Declan Kidney’s boys were majestic for long periods of their clash with the All Blacks in November before going down by a hideous margin of 38-18.

But they were turgid in a 20-10 win against Samoa and did a Wales against the Boks, throwing away promising earlier work to lose 23-21.

Kidney is trying to get his team to play a more expansive style and there have been signs it is working.

But, like Wales and England, Ireland have nagging injuries that are capable of significantly disrupting them.

Tommy Bowe, Shane Horgan, Jamie Heaslip, Andrew Trimble, Rob Kearney, John Hayes and Geordan Murphy will all be missing for the opener away to Italy and, taking their absences into account, that Rome assignment turns into far more of a potential banana skin.

However, if they can negotiate the Stadio Flamini, then they could improve as the tournament goes on, their age-old weakness at the scrum where tightheads Hayes and Tony Buckley are weak, notwithstanding.

Keep your eye on back-row star Sean O’Brien as well. The Leinster man is the form player in the Magners League this season and could well be dynamite.

One of the most intriguing questions each year centres around whether Italy – way out at 250-1 in most places – will go quietly into their whipping boy pigeon hole once more?

Well, much depends on them being able to catch the Irish cold in that first game.

Their South African coach Nick Mallet is still highly regarded by the Azzurri hierarchy, but just two wins in the last three seasons, both at home to Scotland, suggest they are struggling to take the next step of punching their weight more against the others, even if they have run some of them close.

As ever, they will target Wales on February 26, and, depending on what shape Warren Gatland’s men arrive in, they may get some joy.

France? Well, quite frankly if anyone can provide a clear picture of the sort of state they are in at present then I’d like to hear from them.

For a nation with such strength in depth they are perennial contenders, but how do you make sense of the way they performed last autumn, a series which finished with that Australian trouncing before which there were two deadly dull displays against Fiji and Argentina.

There are reports of spats between coach Marc Lievremont and senior players, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that they are the reigning Grand Slam champions.

Much hinges on that first clash with the Scots. They daren’t lose it because it is followed by trips to Lansdowne Road and Twickenham which will see Lievremont’s men tested as severely as they will be all championship.

For all their ups and downs, the French come in at 5-2 second favourites behind England, which for me is not surprising, but has no appeal whatsoever.

And so we finish with Wales, dear old Wales, whose odds have come in these last few days from sevens to around 5-1.

Whether that’s more down to misguided patriotism who knows, but you sense there would have been more caution had Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins not fallen by the wayside.

Where to start with even a tentative forecast for Warren Gatland’s men?

All I would say is that no team has had a tougher programme than them in the last year and so if there is anything in the contention that playing the best makes you better, then we should start to see something in the next few weeks.

I know many others have banged this drum already, but their fortunes really do depend on the outcome of the first clash with England.

Wales have shown how dependent they are on momentum and the confidence that it breeds.

Losing, for the time being, has become a habit, but winning can become the same thing.

There were times last autumn when you wondered if Wales would ever rid themselves of some of the mental demons that hold them back.

Victory against the old enemy will go a long way to doing so.

Defeat, and their prospects for the rest of the competition don’t really bare thinking about.

So place your bets ladies and gents, then sit back and enjoy the fireworks.