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Post Poll Picture: Probables, Possibles & Ponderables

Even the rising crescendo of one of the most bitterly fought, no-holds
barred poll battle of early 2017 covering the states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand,
Goa and Manipur.

If the loads printed, aired and
‘netted’ by the media were laid end to
end one could easily walk on words from Agartala to Agra and back without
setting foot on soil and still not be any the wiser but more about that some
other time.

There are also lots to be said about
the caustic, even corrosively communal conduct of men who mattered. An account
of the disgraceful depths they plumbed for power could wait for when the passion-spent sit down to count their breath after the
verdict.

For now one would like to assess the
probables, possibles and ponderables that will unfold on the country’s political
canvass thereafter. Most importantly, the results here will have a direct
bearing on Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Modi, where elections are
due in the last quarter of this year. Before the dust of UP settles, Gujarat is
experiencing the first stirrings of poll harmones with the Prime Minister’s two
day visit on March 7-8 and the Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) announcing its plans to
contest all 182 seats in the state.

For a
recap of the just completed poll proccess, which began on February 11 and ends
on March 8, 2017 with counting scheduled for March 11, one-fifth of India or 16.8
crores, roughly the population of Pakistan, was given the chance to cast it’s
vote for 690 seats in five state assemblies.

If Punjab, ruled by the Shiromani
Akali Dal-BJP coalition has a voting population of 1.98 crore electing a 117
member state assembly, Congress headed
Uttarakhand with 73.81 lakh voters takes care of 70 seats followed by Congress
controlled Manipur with an 18.07 lakh population distributed amongst 60
seats.BJP ruled Goa at the other end has 11 lakh voters for its 40 seat
Assembly.

However, UP takes the cake through
sheer population and representation. Uttar Pradesh , however is a goliath in its
own right. It has a voter population of approx.13.85 crores to elect a state
Assembly of 403 members. With a population equaling Brazil, it has a Qatar-size
economy. It is a political heavy weight none-the-less contributing 80 representatives
in a lok sabha of 543 seats of which BJP and its constituent Apna Dal bagged 73
in the 2014 general elections.

Thus it is no wonder that the ruling BJP
pulled out all stops to unleash a campaign of unparalleled intensity and
unrivalled resources which had national attention riveted to this one state. Almost
the entire central cabinet was hurled into the campaigning in the last phases
with Modi perhaps becoming the first
Prime Minister to lead a road show in a state Assembly election. So did chief
minister Akhilesh Yadav seeking to guard his socialist party turf joining up
with Rahul Gandhi’s Congress though Mayawati helming BSP chose to furrow a lone
plough .

These polls hold critical importance
for all key contenders. For Modi,a victory in these elections will be a shot in
the arm for the prime minister and his demonetisation measure. It will
symbolize popular approval for his measures as he stands midway past the post
of his five year term. One can see him galloping unbridled thereafter, riding
roughshod over all opposition.

Most importantly the result of the state
elections is set to alter the outcome of the Rajya Sabha arithmetic by 2018. Modi’s
NDA with 74 seats in a House of 245 is heavily outnumbered due to a UPA
strength of 71 and 90 seats belonging to other parties who are not part of
either coalitions. There are nine nominated members and one vacancy from West
Bengal. NDA needs 123 seats in the Rajya Sabha to get any legislation passed. Ten RS seats will fall vacant in 2017 and 68 in
2018.Though MLAs play an important role in electing MPs to the Rajya Sabha, the
outcome of the present elections will not substantially change the complexion
of the Rajya Sabha this year but it can play a
very crucial role in the election of the President slated for July 2017.

After converting himself into the sole
pivot on which the BJP rotates ,Modi perforce has to jump into the deep end of
the campaigning pool in every election. Success brings bouquets galore but
brickbats follow setbacks and therefore the need for a blame boy. Faced with
such an eventuality for a third time after Delhi and Bihar , Amit Shah may well
find himself back to heading his home state which goes to polls this year end. He
has,in any case kept his seat in the State Assembly. Who can be more trustworthy
for this job than Shah?.

Modi who metamorphosed from hindu
heartthrob to development messiah through his Gujarat model to sweep India in
2014 faces serious challenges from two emerging political contenders post this
poll. The military school educated Akhilesh Yadav with a BE in environmental
engineering from Mysore University and an ME from Sydney University besides an
MBA became the youngest chief minister
of UP at 38.Akhilesh has earned the mantle of a development oriented leader and
acquired the image of being very much his own man. His decision to team up with
Rahul Gandhi’s Congress as a vote consolidation strategy is proof of it.

If the SP-Congress combine wins in UP,
the ranks of opposition helmed states will swell joining up with the likes of
Nitish Kumar(Bihar) and Mamta Banerjee(West Bengal). It has the potential of
turning into a formidable opposition group that could well throw a spanner in
the Modi lok sabha works for 2019. Punjab results not withstanding,the future
of the Congress lies in clawing it ‘s way back into national political
reckoning by hanging onto the coat tails of regional entities.

The second serious challenger that
will emerge from this clutch of elections will be Arvind Kejriwal and his AAP. Kejriwal’s
fledging set up has borne the brunt of a Tsunami sort, no holds barred assault
from the BJP led Centre. Ironically, all that Modi claimed he had faced from
the UPA led centre when chief minister of Gujarat, was unleashed by his
government to virtually paralyse the AAP government in Delhi which is merely a
notch above a municipal corporation. Win or lose in Punjab and Goa, AAP is
expected to make it’s presence felt as a political entity of national standing
in these polls. Practitioner of the same aggressive politics as Modi, Kejriwal
has already announced his plans to beard the lion in it’s own den, Gujarat.

Both
Arvind and Akhilesh are pillars of an
emerging national coalition-forged in the Modi furnace fires –which he himself
will face in 2019. Even earlier in Gujarat 2017 !

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R.K. Misra is a field journalist with over forty years of experience working for some of the top news publications in India and abroad. Presently the Roving editor of The Free Press Journal of Mumbai, he is also the State Correspondent of the New York based international news agency, Associated Press (AP), news dailies Hitavada of Nagpur, Daily Post of Chandigarh and Outlook magazine of Delhi , to name a few. Beginning his professional career with The Times of India in Ahmedabad, he has worked as Senior Assistant Editor with Probe India and it’s sister hindi publication ‘Maya’ in Delhi and as Special Correspondent and later Roving Editor of The Pioneer and the Indo-Asian News Service (IANS). Specialising in cross-country coverage of conflict areas like Punjab and Kashmir at the height of militancy , he has also done stints for the Gulf News of Dubai and the Arab News of Saudi Arabia besides the Tribune of Chandigarh, and Vijay Times of Bangalore. His specialization, however remains, Gujarat. He is presently based in Gandhinagar, the state capital of Gujarat.