Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

Ukip isn't surging: it's actually slipped back a bit

The BBC has not yet released its projected national share of the vote figures. John Curtice and his team compile the figures as the results come in, and many results are still being counted.

But Curtice has been dropping hints, based on how the parties are doing compared to previous years. By digging out the figures for previous years, it is possible to provide an early, provisional estimate for what the figures will show.

Here they are.

Labour: 30% or 31%

Conservatives: 28%

Ukip: 22%? (This morning Curtice was saying just under 25%. At lunchtime he was saying probably not quite as good as last year, and last year's figure was 23%.)

Lib Dems: 13%

I stress, these are not the BBC's figures. Psephologists tend to be quite scrupulous about their numbers, and Curtice will announce his when he's ready. I'm inferring from what he's saying. But I'm posting the figures because I thought you would be interested.

We are interested. Well, I’m interested. Those people rushing around excitedly talking about the Ukip surge/earthquake/revolution won’t be interested. In fact, they’ll ignore it because it contains a rather inconvenient fact.

Ukip isn't surging. The party's actually slipped back a bit.

The votes are still being counted. But those outstanding votes are in the main in London and the other metropolitan areas where Ukip hasn’t performed as well.

And the facts are clear. Ukip has done slightly worse in these elections than it did in the local elections 12 months ago.

Yes, they have secured gains in Labour areas, and that has surprised some people. But according to Ukip experts Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin, Ukip is supposed to do better in Labour heartlands than Tory ones. That’s why they’ve identified Labour seats as the most attractive targets in next year’s election. In addition, Ukip has benefited this year from the “pull” of the European elections, and the additional attention those elections have generated.

So despite all the hysteria and hype, Ukip isn't surging. In reality, it's going backwards.