A potential cost to adopting electric vehicles early was highlighted last week by Pike Research.

In a report on “the plug-in vehicle residual value conundrum,“ it was said electric and plug-in hybrid end-of-lease values will remain lower than those of gasoline-powered nearest equivalents for at least the next several years as the market decides how to assess these new vehicle types.

The residual value is an indicator of what a vehicle will be “worth” at the end of a specified lease contract, and may also be a guide to anticipate relative used car prices for buyers who anticipate trading in or selling their car after a few years.

Plug-in cars can still be a great deal for many reasons.

The article was written by David Hurst, a senior analyst for Pike Research who primarily contemplates emerging markets for EVs, natural gas and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

He noted the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF have a three-year lease price of $349 per month, but the residual value for a $41,000 Volt will be just $17,630 after 36 months, and for the LEAF it will be $13,440. In the Volt’s case, the residual will be about 43 percent of its selling price, whereas a Chevrolet Cruze has a residual closer to 52 percent.

Hurst also cited a $499 payment with $2,250 down for the limited availability BMW ActiveE car due to launch this fall. This is significantly more than the lease price for a comparable gas-powered BMW 1 Series which ranges from $329-$399 per month with $1,000 down.

These higher barriers to entry are reflective of across-the-board lower plug-in car residual values, Hurst said. Because the assumption is the end-of-lease value will be less, the up-front monthly payments must be higher to account for the greater depreciation though the lease term.

“Overall it seems likely that the initial residual values are going to be relatively low,” Hurst said, “Industry average after a three year lease is roughly 54 percent to 55 percent.”

To determine a lease rate, four factors are typically considered. Aside from residual value, these are selling price, the “money factor” – which is akin to an interest rate – and the amount of down payment at the lease inception.

The present state of plug-in car residual values is being attributed to a few unknowns.

One is the remaining service life in a used EV battery after three years. GM and Nissan say it is five years, Hurst said.

Another unknown is the rate of future decrease in EV-compatible lithium-ion battery costs. This factor is also making lease companies hedge their bets.

Since before it was launched, the Volt Team has had a mandate to reduce what it pays for its lithium-ion battery pack.

The Volt’s T-shaped li-ion battery was a departure from nickel metal hydride batteries which made them more of an unknown. Also a mystery is what GM will be paying for them by 2012-2013 when the LG Chem factory begins producing the cells in Michigan.

In the CMU study, the so-called “base case” used a Lithium-Ion battery cost of $1,000 per kWh ($16,000 for a 40 mile Volt pack) that was cited in earlier academic articles. The problem is this cost is many hundreds of dollars per kWh higher than the actual cost of the Volt pack today [written Mar. 3, 2009]. Moreover, our battery team is already starting work on new concepts that will further decrease the cost of the Volt battery pack quite substantially in a second-generation Volt pack. Unfortunately, the impact of dramatically lower battery costs (to $250 per kWh) was treated only as a “sensitivity” in the CMU study when it probably should have been highlighted as THE critical element that would dramatically change the cost-effectiveness of plug-ins with greater electric-only range.

We know from recent reports the push to cut the Volt’s battery costs – along with other production cost factors – is “on track.”

These were projections published by Deutsche Bank Dec. 22, 2010. Note it only took one year for it to slash projections, while following a similar rate of decline. In short, no one knows the future, but it is the nature of business to want to, and nothing stops some information purveyors from trying.

Another battery price indicator came at the end of 2010, when Deutsche Bank reduced future cost projections from the year prior, and for all anyone knows, the projections could decline again as variables change.

Hurst said it therefore remains only a semi-educated guess today for leasing companies trying not to get caught short at the end of a lease term.

“To cover their exposure for these vehicles, the companies calculating residuals (banks, insurance groups, and valuation companies) seem likely to set residual values lower than market average,” he said, “It is then up to BMW, GM, and Nissan to decide what value they want to put on the vehicles, which could potentially cost them significant money if the resale values are below their estimated values. It seems likely that to match the Leaf’s lease rate, GM is betting the Volt’s residual value will be closer to that of the Cruze at 52 percent.”

This chart was supplied courtesy of EPRI yesterday and is thought to be based on fairly recent analysis. Instead of pretending to have a crystal ball through to 2020, it bases its projections on a cost decline relative to unit production.

Another factor that especially affects new plug-in car makers like Think, Fisker, and Tesla is these companies are relatively unproven. The same would be true of any other new players in the plug-in vehicle market. Sort of a double whammy, if you will.

As for his own educated guess, Hurst predicted that new plug-in vehicle residuals will edge upwards year by year assuming no truly bad press comes out over EV batteries, and gasoline prices continue to rise.

At this beginning stage, it is all the more important that plug-in vehicles maintain a perceived high reliability record. Recalls, or other negative publicity stand to jeopardize the increase in residual values needed if they are to achieve parity with internal combustion vehicles.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011 at 5:55 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

COMMENTS: 44

1

+12

Xiaowei1 Says

May 3rd, 2011 (6:20 am)

Sorry, I disagree. There are not enough electric cars to satisfy the market as it is; nor will there in the projected 3 years. There is bound to be people who will pay top dollar for these limited supply car, even after 3 years. It may not fetch the price of an original, but it will by the same token not fall so quickly – especially not a volt at $17,630 after 36 months, or a Leaf at 13,449… whilst not necesary, you could replace the battery at that price and have a bargain!

2

+10

Dan Petit Says

May 3rd, 2011 (7:12 am)

The residual value numbers fail to incorporate an inverse for the savings of gasoline and maintenance that ***is most certainly obvious*** to anyone. This concrete monthly value directly benefiting the second owner of the Volt has been entirely omitted.
This was not smart. This was not reflective of insight. It was not anything but, well, quite silly.

So, you have a three year old Chevrolet Volt. It currently saves the owner who drives at least fifteen thousand serene and quiet miles a year, two thousand five hundred dollars a year.

There is a price premium for anything as obviously advantageous as this. It may well turn out to become more like a three thousand dollars a year inherent-advantage by this time next year. So, the remaining five year residual life expectancy of the battery before it begins to very slowly decline over several more years still, causes a net savings on fuel and maintenance of fifteen thousand dollars. Let me add a front brake job and an “all around” brake job and you have another thousand dollars due to regenerative braking eliminating brake pad wear almost entirely (as happens in Prius). That’s sixteen thousand dollars in concrete savings to the second Volt owner.

This is first grade arithmetic.

And, quite a blunder to not have factored these things in.

3

+2

Kup Says

May 3rd, 2011 (7:50 am)

Based on Jeff’s analysis of the report I agree with certain parts of their methodology but it seems really egregious to fail to do a sensitivity analysis based on the price of gas. If gas is $5 or $6 a gallon in 3, 5 or 8 years, the value of the Volt changes dramatically. Similarly, many utilities are going to peak pricing and/or EV pricing schedules that should further lower the cost of driving the Volt which also raises the value of the Volt.

Take those two factors into account and the value proposition of the Volt can change dramatically.

4

+2

Roy_H Says

May 3rd, 2011 (7:51 am)

What kind of funny math is used to compare a Volt $41k -$7500 = $33500 with similar down payment and lease rate with BMW 128i at $34500 and the Volt residual = $17630 vs $20267?
Volt 2150 + 349×36 = $14714. BMW 2500 + 329×36 = $14334. Ignoring interest Volt 33500 – 14714 = $18786 and BMW 34500 – 14334 = $20166. In this case the interest on the BMW128i is $101. If the same interest was applied to the Volt, the residual would be 18786 +101 = $18867.
BMW128i 20267/34500 = 58.75%. Volt 18867/33500 = 56.32%

We all know that new technology costs more and it is unfair to make these comparisons, that is why the government gives the $7500 tax credit, and this should be factored in as the true cost to the purchaser of the car. There is no reason to lie with false figures, the Volt residual is $18786 + interest, not $17630.

5

+3

koz Says

May 3rd, 2011 (7:51 am)

Seems the $7500 tax credit is lost in the analysis. The effective price for most people is MSRP – $7500. How many would pay more than $33,500 for a base equipped used Volt, even if it were only used for a day? The “real world” residual percent from this reduced figure is based on 17,630/33,500 or magically 52.6%. Personally, I think it will turn out to be a little higher but this is a reasonable starting guess.

Just as plug-ins vehilcle sales will be affected by gas prices, so will residual values. Just look at the Prius resale market. Sales of new hybrids go up with gas prices and so do resale values. A 3 year old Volt will be worth about $5000-$8000 more than the most comparably equipped Prius, IMO.

6

+1

Jim I Says

May 3rd, 2011 (8:02 am)

koz: Seems the $7500 tax credit is lost in the analysis. The effective price for most people is MSRP – $7500. How many would pay more than $33,500 for a base equipped used Volt, even if it were only used for a day? The “real world” residual percent from this reduced figure is based on 17,630/33,500 or magically 52.6%. Personally, I think it will turn out to be a little higher but this is a reasonable starting guess.

Just as plug-ins vehilcle sales will be affected by gas prices, so will residual values. Just look at the Prius resale market. Sales of new hybrids go up with gas prices and so do resale values. A 3 year old Volt will be worth about $5000-$8000 more than the most comparably equipped Prius, IMO.

==========================

koz beat me to it with his post.

+1

7

-1

Shock Me Says

May 3rd, 2011 (9:20 am)

Could the lower value be connected with the expense of replacing the battery pack near the end of the second finance contract on the vehicle?

8

DonC Says

May 3rd, 2011 (9:22 am)

All these great comments point out why the Volt US Bank lease isn’t the best of ideas. The Volt comes with a gas discount card, and, while the rest of the car might suffer from wear and tear over three years, the card will be working every bit as well in year four as it is in year one. On the other hand, you can’t blame lessors for trying to protect themselves with unproven new technology. You just don’t need to spend your money to protect them. (This is BTW the point Lyle made when he decided to buy rather than lease).

My guess is that EVs will become very competitive with ICE cars as the higher residual for EVs acts as something of a counterweight to the higher initial costs.

As an aside, the maintenance schedules for EVs also show the advantages of an electric drive. Take the Volt’s for example. An oil change every two years. A check of the belts at 10 years. The Leaf’s maintenance is even less. Basically you need to check the coolants and rotate and replace the tires. You don’t realize how much less maintenance there is until you start looking at the schedules.

9

+1

DonC Says

May 3rd, 2011 (9:32 am)

Timely post by Marc Lee in the forums about the cost of commuting. The distance was perfectly suited for the Leaf — not so long and not too short — but the operating costs of EVs are definitely lower than even the most economical ICE vehicles and, in the case of the Leaf, less than the cost of commuting by train.

Another example of the failure of conventional analyses to understand the business model of disruptive technologies. The price of these plug-ins will remain high for a few years, until sufficient volume (and more importantly, sufficient competition) is produced. There is NO WAY that a used Volt will depreciate more than a used Cadillac, given the inherent value of the Volt.

I look forward to Bob Lutz’s book describing how these conventional analyses are killing American corporations. Just get out of the way and let visionaries lead.

12

-1

Zod Says

May 3rd, 2011 (11:31 am)

If you take the tax credit into account, their entire point disappears. I guess that’s why they left it out.

An interesting variable will be is if in 3 years there is no longer a tax credit, how will that affect the used car prices (hint, their value will go up).

13

+1

Noel Park Says

May 3rd, 2011 (12:26 pm)

DonC: All these great comments point out why the Volt US Bank lease isn’t the best of ideas.

#8

Right. +1

I bought mine for cash and I’m gonna drive it ’til it drops, so this is all academic to me. We drove out Impala SS for 15 years, and I would still be driving it except for circumstances beyond my control. If I have to replace the battery pack at year 8 or year 10, I will deal with that when the time comes.

Somebody said the other day that “early adopters” are getting a good deal because the Gen 1 Volt battery packs are an overkill design, meant to avoid embarrassing issues with new technology, and that Gen 2 packs will very likely be skinned down to save cost. I have adopted that as my story, and I’m sticking to it, hehehe. Maybe this will be the last car I buy, except for potential stupid old hobby ones of course, LOL.

14

-1

Noel Park Says

May 3rd, 2011 (12:29 pm)

Jason M. Hendler: I look forward to Bob Lutz’s book describing how these conventional analyses are killing American corporations. Just get out of the way and let visionaries lead.

#11

Amen. +1

BTW, I’ll say again, used Prius prices are up 30% since January 1. Also, I typoed Prius as prius again, and the spellchecker came up with “prissy”, LOL.

15

-1

kdawg Says

May 3rd, 2011 (1:44 pm)

I wonder how long it will be before you can rent a Volt or a Leaf, or any pluggable vehicle? Can you even rent a Prius now? I’ve never seen them when I rent.

16

-1

CaptJackSparrow Says

May 3rd, 2011 (1:54 pm)

“Since before it was launched, the Volt Team has had a mandate to reduce what it pays for its lithium-ion battery pack.”

Didn’t I tell ya that LG was the first to get beatup with the “Cost Reduction” stick? lol
Always the vendors first.

Now, I have to ask, if they (LG Chem) make the cells for GM at the current price with the current very low cost of labor there in South Korea, how are they going to make cheaper cells here with higher labor costs here in the US? Sure *maybe* you eliminate importing but they’re importing the materials anyway, right?
Personally I don’t see the cost savings. More of an increase if you ask me.

Yeah, you can rent a Prius. We got one when we were in SoCal a few months ago. No PHEV/PHV though. Not till mid 2012?

18

-1

2000Z28 Says

May 3rd, 2011 (2:31 pm)

A used Volt worth only $17,630 after 36 months?!?!?!? This guy is nuts and this research has a major flaw (somewhere) in it. I’d believe a number closer to $27,630, not $17,630. Give me a break.

19

+4

JohnW Tampa Says

May 3rd, 2011 (3:43 pm)

I bought an electric bike yesterday. I can’t afford a volt right now. But at least some of my miles will be electric. And no…. I didn’t get a DUI.

20

-1

TRMcCoy Says

May 3rd, 2011 (3:44 pm)

Over the weekend while looking at a Volt the very young salesman made a point of saying “If you buy, you get the $7500 tax credit, but if you lease you don’t.” Am I correct in assuming that the bank or leasing company as the ‘owner’ of the car gets the $7500 credit instead of the consumer? If so does that effectively lower the cap cost of the lease to something around MSRP – $7500? Is this the way the Volt leases are being calculated?

21

-1

Noel Park Says

May 3rd, 2011 (3:44 pm)

CaptJackSparrow: Now, I have to ask, if they (LG Chem) make the cells for GM at the current price with the current very low cost of labor there in South Korea, how are they going to make cheaper cells here with higher labor costs here in the US?

#16

Maybe kdawg can tell us better, but I bet that the labor component of those cells is so low that maybe it is offset by the shipping. Or maybe GM thinks that there is still some value in a “Made in USA” label. Or am I the only one left who is so backward as to think that?

Plus, I bet that we would be surprised at how much Korean manufacturing workers get paid. I read somewhere years ago that Japanese auto workers were getting paid more than US ones. The world’s standard of living is rapidly heading toward the lowest common denominator IMHO. Unless you’re part of the top 1% of course.

I really thought I read Lyle leased, as he said he normally does. And I think I remember him saying he may choose to buy at the end, for sentimental reasons.

24

-1

kdawg Says

May 3rd, 2011 (3:52 pm)

Noel Park: CaptJackSparrow: Now, I have to ask, if they (LG Chem) make the cells for GM at the current price with the current very low cost of labor there in South Korea, how are they going to make cheaper cells here with higher labor costs here in the US?#16
Maybe kdawg can tell us better, but I bet that the labor component of those cells is so low that maybe it is offset by the shipping. Or maybe GM thinks that there is still some value in a “Made in USA” label. Or am I the only one left who is so backward as to think that?

There was a post on this not long ago. I’ll see if i can find it, but it was where they said a lot of the cost would be reduced due to shipping. The compartment the batteries are shipped in has to be climate controlled.

EDIT:
I found the quotes from Tony P.
——————
“As we increase our volume, contractual relationships will change with higher volume price comes down,” Posawatz said. “As we resource [battery] cells and they no longer come from Korea, and they are going to come across the state from Holland, Michigan, do you know how much money is reduced?”

After the Holland plant is up and running, he said, a major part of the Volt’s cost will come down, without stripping any quality out of the car. This will happen after GM is sure its domestic plant can reliably produce LG Chem’s “secret recipe” for its batteries.

“So, some time in 2012, we haven’t stated the date, they are on track to build their plant, upgrade their facilities, their capacity,” Posawatz said, “But that’s just one example where I don’t think shipping the cells across state versus from Korea with duties, tariffs, special refrigerant – expensive refrigerant – and temperature control [will cost nearly as much].”

25

Volt Canada Says

May 3rd, 2011 (4:04 pm)

Volt Orders Start in Canada

GM Canada Press Release.

Oshawa, ON (Monday, May 2, 2011) – Starting today, participating Chevrolet dealers in seven key launch markets across Canada will begin taking orders for the all-new 2012 Chevrolet Volt. With an MSRP starting at $41,545, the Chevrolet Volt is the industry’s first electric vehicle with extended range capabilities. Unlike other electric vehicles in the market, the Chevrolet Volt will never leave anyone stranded with a depleted battery.

“The Chevrolet Volt is an award-winning, leading technology recognized as the only electric vehicle that can meet all your driving needs,” said Kevin Williams, president and managing director at GM of Canada. “The Volt delivers it all: dramatic greenhouse gas reductions, a revolutionary propulsion system, progressive styling, spirited driving dynamics, and industry-leading safety, premium amenities, and user-friendly technologies.”

26

flmark Says

May 3rd, 2011 (4:49 pm)

I purchased a new 2006 Highlander Hybrid for $34K and sold it in 2008 (during high gas prices) with 17K miles for $27K. I have already experienced buyers accepting new technology when it helped overcome pain at the pump. Used Volts will sell for a premium.

OT – What happened to the production run of 10,000 VOLTs ?
VIN 3365 is “In Transit” for one of my customers, (that’s less than halfway through the total run) but my General Manager is hinting that very shortly any New Orders will enter the system as 2012’s.

My first thought at hearing this was the report that General Electric might be getting the lion’s share of inventory because of that big purchase they did. Or maybe it’s China getting in on the action…???

On the upside, I know our successful launch of the VOLT has increased our allocation but I am concerned that some of my orders will roll over to 2012, which means I will have to start scrambling for dealer trades to get my 2011 orders filled.

Has anyone else heard anything about when the ‘cutoff date’ will be?

28

-1

jeffhre Says

May 3rd, 2011 (5:16 pm)

DonC: Timely post by Marc Lee in the forums about the cost of commuting. The distance was perfectly suited for the Leaf — not so long and not too short — but the operating costs of EVs are definitely lower than even the most economical ICE vehicles and, in the case of the Leaf, less than the cost of commuting by train

That’s very true – If you can get an EV for free. And you don’t have to pay tax and license fees. Or insurance and maintenance costs. Prorate those costs for each trip, and the Leaf’s savings for commuting will be completely crushed by the trains per trip economics.

29

CaptJackSparrow Says

May 3rd, 2011 (5:55 pm)

kdawg: Posawatz said, “But that’s just one example where I don’t think shipping the cells across state versus from Korea with duties, tariffs, special refrigerant – expensive refrigerant – and temperature control [will cost nearly as much].”

I can understand the refrigerant cooling costs may be a reduction but importing the Lithium, Manganese and other materials WILL still have shipping & import fees attached to them (individually?).
I had no idea the cells needed to be thermally controlled during shipping. Leaves you to wonder if the Lithium or Manganese need to as well.

That’s kind of weird/strange for cells to be climate controlled just to ship.
Anyone else find that a little, uh………..way out of the ordinary?

30

-1

GSP Says

May 3rd, 2011 (5:56 pm)

Corvette Guy,

I think 10,000 units were planned for the calendar year, not MY2011. GM has until Dec 31 to get to 10,000.

As such he told reporters GM will further be pushing Volt production beyond the 10,000 to 15,000 units initially announed for this calendar year. Instead Akerson said he expects 2011 production to top 25,000.

CorvetteGuy: OT – What happened to the production run of 10,000 VOLTs ?
VIN 3365 is “In Transit” for one of my customers, (that’s less than halfway through the total run) but my General Manager is hinting that very shortly any New Orders will enter the system as 2012′s.

The 10,000 run was for calendar year 2011 not model year 2011. They’ve produced at least 3320 (you’re suggesting at least 3365) before the end of April, so they seem to be right on pace.

MY 2012 is more or less MY 2011 with remote entry, a new streaming music option, and some decontenting by turning standard equipment into options. Very minor.

33

-1

DonC Says

May 3rd, 2011 (7:18 pm)

john1701a: Instead Akerson said he expects 2011 production to top 25,000.

So he’s an idiot but not such an idiot that he didn’t let people more savvy than he talk him down from the ledge. The formula is pretty simple: No battery packs no Volts.

34

-1

DonC Says

May 3rd, 2011 (7:23 pm)

JohnW Tampa: I really thought I read Lyle leased, as he said he normally does.

Noel Park: Maybe kdawg can tell us better, but I bet that the labor component of those cells is so low that maybe it is offset by the shipping.

Labor is marginal, and more than offset by the high cost of shipping. If you’re going to be competitive in the car biz you have to manufacture in the market into which you’re selling. The Koreans are trying to avoid this fact but they’ll figure it out. (See Toyota). The Chinese are clueless I think.

kdawg: I wonder how long it will be before you can rent a Volt or a Leaf, or any pluggable vehicle? Can you even rent a Prius now?I’ve never seen them when I rent.

I received an email from Enterprise about renting electric vehicles. They will begin renting the 2012 Nissan Leaf in January 2012, since they are waiting for their allocation. I hope GM offers Enterprise a better deal before that date so I can rent a Volt when I travel to New York or Florida.

Someone should try asking the other car rentals if they will offer the Volt or another electric vehicle.

Raymond

40

-1

Anthony Says

May 3rd, 2011 (11:26 pm)

Does anyone have or know of a copy of the EPRI report the last graph in the article is from? I’d like to read the full report.

Rob Peterson said –“We’re still on target to produce and sell 10,000 in 2011 (calendar year). We’ve just about completed our 2011 model year vehicles and will soon crank up production of 2012 model Year Volt’s.”