Overdue rain should keep November out of dry record books

Joshua McKerrow / Staff

A gaggle of Canada geese and a few Mallard ducks enjoys a day of moderate November weather Monday on Weems Creek in Annapolis. They may be migrating north just in time to miss a few rainy days this week.

A gaggle of Canada geese and a few Mallard ducks enjoys a day of moderate November weather Monday on Weems Creek in Annapolis. They may be migrating north just in time to miss a few rainy days this week. (Joshua McKerrow / Staff)

The final days of brisk November will bring a bit more unusual warm weather this week, but also some rain that should keep the region out of the record books for the driest 11th month ever.

Temperatures will rise to the low 60s Tuesday and upper 60s Wednesday as a large slug of moisture heads this way out of the Midwest, bringing rain and showers through Wednesday night, the National Weather Service forecast predicted.

That rainfall, up to about an inch all told, should keep November from being the driest ever, since records have been kept beginning in 1871.

As of Monday only .22 of an inch had fallen this month, 2.95 inches below normal. Since Sept. 1 rainfall has been 4.95 below normal levels.

If that pattern held for this month it would be the driest on record. The driest November came in 1881, when only .31 of an inch fell.

"We have been flirting with that record," said Kevin Witt, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia. "If we only get .09 of an inch we will tie that record."

But the forecast is calling for more, up to an inch between the two days.

"It looks like up to a half inch from about 1 a.m. to 10 a.m. Tuesday and about the same on Wednesday morning until early afternoon," Witt said.

The rain is sorely needed in most of the state. The National Drought Monitor indicated most of Maryland was in a moderate drought, with the exception of southern Calvert and St. Mary's counties and the lower Eastern Shore. Anne Arundel was split, with the west being in moderate drought and the eastern half of the county only seeing abnormally dry conditions. A drought update is due Tuesday.

The warm front accompanying the rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday will drive temperatures well above normal. The overnight low Tuesday into Wednesday is expected to be about 54 degrees, some 23 degrees over the average low of 31 degrees during the last days of November. Wednesdays potential 68 degrees is 17 degrees above the average 51 for the day.

Headed into December, Thursday is the first day of meteorological winter. That is defined as the three months from Dec. 1 to the end of February that typically are the coldest period of the year. Temperatures will moderate to about 58 degrees, still several degrees above normal.

By Friday temperatures return to normal for the weekend, hovering around the 50 degree mark.

Saturday should be sunny with a high of 49 and Sunday brings another chance of precipitation with a 30 percent chance of showers on an otherwise partly sunny day.

The six to 10 day forecast looks like continued normal temperatures and above average precipitation, Witt said.