1/17/2011

Some Notes for the Health Care Repeal Vote

Voters overwhelmingly want to see last year’s health care law changed, but there is substantial disagreement about how best to do it.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 75% of Likely U.S. Voters want to change the law, while only 18% want it left alone. Those figures include 20% who want the law repealed and nothing done to replace it, 28% who want it repealed and then have its most popular provisions put into a new law and 27% who say leave the law in place but get rid of the unpopular provisions.It is worth noting that a majority (55%) take one of the middle ground approaches—repeal and replace or leave it and improve. (To see survey question wording, click here.)Overall, 48% take an approach that starts with repeal. That’s lower than support for repeal measured generally in Rasmussen Reports weekly tracking polls on the subject. It is likely that some people who prefer repeal when there are no other options for change are drawn to the idea of leaving the law in place and removing the unpopular provisions. . . .

2) People oppose the law because they believe it will raise costs, increase the deficit, and lower quality. These poll results from Rasmussen Reports probably explain why Democrats are arguing that repeal will increase the deficit.

Support for repeal of the national health care law passed last year remains steady, as most voters continue to believe the law will increase the federal budget deficit.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 55% of Likely Voters favor repeal of the health care law, while 40% oppose repeal. Just 40% Strongly Favor repeal, matching the lowest level found since the health care bill became law. Thirty percent (30%) Strongly Oppose repeal. (To see survey question wording, click here.) . . .Sixty percent (60%) of voters say the legislation will likely increase the federal deficit, while just 17% say it will reduce the deficit. Another 13% believe the law will have no impact on the deficit. Since the laws passage, the number of voters that expect the plan to increase the deficit has ranged from 51% to 63%.Fifty-eight percent (58%) expect the cost of health care to go up under the new plan, which has also remained steady since the law's passage. Only 13% expect the cost of care to decrease under the plan while 22% say health care costs will remain about the same as they are now.When it comes to quality of care, 50% say it will get worse under the new plan. That number has also shifted little since the plan's passage. Twenty-one percent (21%) say the quality of care will get better, while 24% say it will remain about the same. . . .

The poll finds that 40 percent of those surveyed said they support the law, while 41 percent oppose it. Just after the November congressional elections, opposition stood at 47 percent and support was 38 percent. . . . Fewer than one in five say it should be left as it is. . . .

4) A copy of the Republican examination of Obamacare on the deficit is here.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) opines in a January 6 letter to Speaker Boehner that repeal of Obamacare would increase the projected federal deficit by $230 billion through 2021, with detailed technical analysis to follow. . . .

Here’s a closer look at the CBO projections. The $230 billion consists of $145 billion projected for 2010-2019 (updated from the CBO’s $143 billion budget score when the legislation was passed) plus an additional projected deficit reduction of $85 billion (or “roughly $80 billion to $90 billion”) during 2020-2021.

Of the $145 billion for 2010-2019, approximately $70 billion is due to inclusion in the legislation of the CLASS (Community Living Assistance Services and Supports) program, a federal long-term care insurance program that is projected to generate significant revenue and little cost during the next 10 years. But, as an allegedly budget neutral program over the long run, this excess of revenues over expenditures will be reversed in later decades. As I described in a December 2009 WSJ op-ed, Congress’s Long-Term Care Bomb , the CLASS program will “yield substantial reductions in the CBO’s 10-year deficit projections, thus helping the Democrats’ health care reform bills to appear fiscally responsible. But the proposals would significantly increase deficits in subsequent years, when pressure on the federal budget from Medicare and Medicaid spending is already projected to be enormous.” . . .