PFT’s Week 16 picks

Yes, with a clean sweep in the three games on which we disagreed last weekend, I’ve now built a seven-game lead over MDS, with only 32 games to go.

The problem for MDS is that we probably won’t disagree on seven games in the final two weeks. Even then, he needs to be right on all of them.

For Week 16, we disagree on three. So I’ll lead by at least four and possibly by 10 by the time the fat man in the red suit breaks into my house, eats my cookies, and leaves behind a bunch of stuff for everyone but me.

For the week, I was 12-4 to a 9-7 from MDS. On the year, I’m at 146-77-1, good for 65.1 percent. MDS is 139-84-1, still at 62.0 percent.

Falcons at Lions

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have been severely inconsistent this season, with the Falcons consistently managing to pull out wins when they don’t play very well, and the Lions consistently managing to pull out losses when they play competitively. So after a week in which the Falcons blew out a good team and the Lions got blown out by a bad team, I’m picking both teams to revert to their inconsistent ways. Does this logic make sense? Maybe not, but I’m going to have to pick some upsets to catch Florio. So what the heck?

MDS’s pick: Lions 21, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take: It would be fitting for the Lions to close out a disappointing year with a pair of home wins over postseason contenders from Atlanta and Chicago. It would be fitting, but after seeing the Lions lay an egg against the nine-eggs-in-a-row-laying Cardinals, it’s impossible for me to think the Lions can take down a Falcons team that put a goose egg on the Giants.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 31, Lions 17.

Giants at Ravens

MDS’s take: Both of these teams once looked like locks to win their divisions and now look desperate. Former Giants coach Bill Parcells liked to say that in games like this, you go with the more desperate team. That’s the Giants, who probably need to win out to make the playoffs.

MDS’s pick: Giants 24, Ravens 13.

Florio’s take: The Ravens are desperate for a win. The Giants are more desperate for a win. Even though Eli Manning’s Giants have lost to two teams that Peyton Manning’s Broncos played previously and beat, the third time needs to be a charm, or Eli will have no chance to chase his third ring.

Florio’s pick: Giants 27, Ravens 20.

Raiders at Panthers

MDS’s take: A couple weeks ago this looked like it could be a game to determine the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. But the Panthers have won two in a row, and the Raiders won last week, and so now it looks merely like a game that could help shape the Top 10 of the draft. Which makes it an even less interesting game than it otherwise would have been.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 31, Raiders 10.

Florio’s take: Ron Rivera is making it very hard for the next G.M. to hire a new coach. It will keep getting harder.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 31, Raiders 20.

Saints at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Dallas secondary is going to struggle mightily against the Saints’ passing attack, but with the season on the line I see Tony Romo having a big game against the Saints’ defense.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 34, Saints 31.

Florio’s take: A loss to Dallas is a win for the Saints, since it makes it more likely that there won’t be a place with the Cowboys for Sean Payton. Even though the Saints won big over the Bucs, the Cowboys are chasing a playoff berth no one thought they’d secure.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 30, Saints 24.

Titans at Packers

MDS’s take: Tennessee has actually played some reasonably good football in the five weeks since owner Bud Adams put the team on notice following a humiliating loss to the Bears: In those five weeks the Titans have blown out the Dolphins, ended the Jets’ playoff hopes and played a very close game against the playoff-bound Colts. But Green Bay in December is a tough place to play, and the Packers won’t have too much trouble putting the Titans away.

MDS’s pick: Packers 35, Titans 21.

Florio’s take: Green Bay is reached for a No. 2 seed. The Titans are reaching for a lower draft pick. Advantage Packers.

Florio’s pick: Packers 27, Titans 17.

Vikings at Texans

MDS’s take: It’s impressive that the Vikings are still playing meaningful games this deep in the season, but this is where it comes to an end. The Texans will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs by spanking the Vikings, and the loss will severely damage the Vikings’ playoff hopes.

MDS’s pick: Texans 41, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: The Texans may not be able to stop Adrian Peterson, but they’ll likely come through in the most important statistical category — points scored versus points allowed.

Florio’s pick: Texans 31, Vikings 20.

Patriots at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Patriots can’t be feeling good about themselves after Sunday night’s loss to the 49ers. They’ll take it out on the Jaguars in the day’s biggest blowout.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Jaguars 3.

Florio’s take: Five years ago, these two teams squared off in the playoffs. The closest the Jaguars ever get to returning comes from periodically losing to New England.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 41, Jaguars 14.

Colts at Chiefs

MDS’s take: Let’s just stop and reflect for a moment on how important the quarterback position is in the NFL: In 2010, with Peyton Manning, the Colts were a playoff team. In 2011, with Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins, the Colts were the worst team in the league. In 2012, with Andrew Luck, the Colts will beat the Chiefs on Sunday and clinch a playoff berth.

MDS’s pick: Colts 28, Chiefs 14.

Florio’s take: The team that lucked into the top pick in the 2012 draft faces the team that won’t have the same good fortune finding a quarterback with the first or second overall selection in 2013.

Florio’s pick: Colts 24, Chiefs 13.

Bills at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Amazingly, the Dolphins are still in playoff contention, although they would need a lot of help in order to get there, even if they win out. They’ll at least take care of their end by winning on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 24, Bills 20.

Florio’s take: The Dolphins are surprisingly still alive for the postseason. The Bills unsurprisingly aren’t. Edge to the home team and the team that still have something to play for, which in this case is the same team.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 20, Bills 17.

Redskins at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Redskins just need to win out and they win the NFC East. No way they get tripped up by the Eagles, who are just playing out the string. Who would have figured before the season that the Redskins would be playing for a division title while the Eagles would be long since eliminated from playoff contention?

MDS’s pick: Redskins 31, Eagles 10.

Florio’s take: It’s likely the final home game for Eagles coach Andy Reid. And Reid surely would love to spoil Washington’s chances to get to the postseason. Of course, Reid also would have loved to have had the kind of year that would have made Sunday’s game not his final home game.

Florio’s pick: Redskins 24, Eagles 14.

Bengals at Steelers

MDS’s take: The game of the day is in Pittsburgh, where these two teams will be fighting for the one open playoff spot remaining after the Colts take care of business. I like the Steelers to summon everything they have left and put themselves in prime position to clinch in Week 17.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 21, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take: The Bengals are 0-9 in their last eight games against the Steelers and Ravens. And the Steelers are celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. And the Steelers desperately need a win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. This isn’t a game the Steelers lose.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 13.

Rams at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: I was surprised the extent to which the Bucs looked on Sunday like they’ve given up on the season. Greg Schiano and Jeff Fisher both have rebuilding jobs on their hands, but Fisher’s Rams appear to be closer to getting that job done than Schiano’s Bucs.

MDS’s pick: Rams 17, Buccaneers 9.

Florio’s take: The Bucs play their final home game of the season while in a full-blown free fall. Since it’s potentially cornerback Ronde Barber’s final home game of his career, look for the Bucs to find a way to turn things around against a Rams team that saw its unlikely postseason run slam to a halt in Week 15.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Rams 17.

Browns at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos just need to beat two bad teams, the Browns and Chiefs, in order to ensure that if they rematch the Patriots in the playoffs, that game takes place in Denver. Peyton Manning and Co. will take care of business.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, Browns 10.

Florio’s take: The Broncos are closing in on a bye. The Browns are closing in on saying “bye” to their coach and G.M.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 27, Browns 14.

Bears at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Bears need to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. I’m not sure if they’ll get the help, but with only the Cardinals and Lions left on the schedule, they should win out.

MDS’s pick: Bears 27, Cardinals 9.

Florio’s take: No one’s ass is getting crowned as a result of this one.

Florio’s pick: Bears 20, Cardinals 10.

49ers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Sunday night game is a big one, matching the two teams that may be playing the best football in all of the NFL right now. On a neutral field I’d probably take the 49ers, but in Seattle I give the Seahawks the edge.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 21, 49ers 17.

Florio’s take: The “what’s your deal?” rivalry suddenly has become one of the best in the game, making the frosty relationship between the two coaches an afterthought. The Seahawks could have, and should have, won the last time these teams met. This time, the Seahawks are even better.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 20, 49ers 17.

Chargers at Jets

MDS’s take: Greg McElroy may get the loudest ovation at home that a Jets quarterback has received since Joe Namath. I don’t think McElroy is the long-term answer, but I do think he’ll play competently, and the Jets’ defense will play well, and Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow will stand together on the sideline awkwardly watching the McElroy-led Jets win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Jets 13, Chargers 10.

Florio’s take: The McElroy era begins with a Bolt. Or maybe a butt fumble. There’s too much drama this week in the locker room for the Jets to come together and win.

58 responses to “PFT’s Week 16 picks”

For me it’s not even a debate about the Redskins winning out. My expectation is to score at least 80 points combined and give up less than 30 points. Dominance over two awful football teams like Philadelphia and Dallas. Put fear into our first playoff opponent who comes to FedEx Field in January.

By what measure do you make the declaration the Seahawks should have won the last game against the Niners? San Fran put up 175 yards rushing on what was at the time the 2nd ranked rushing defense. There is no woulda, shoulda, coulda in the NFL – you either won or you lost and in this case the Seahwaks lost.

“What can I say to rile the Washington haters up more… lets see, let me say that the redskins will beat their season offense and defense scoring averages by more than 10 points each in 2 divisional games. Hahah that will get the haters fired up!! Go Cowboys”

bigbrad184 says:
Dec 20, 2012 10:11 AM
By what measure do you make the declaration the Seahawks should have won the last game against the Niners? San Fran put up 175 yards rushing on what was at the time the 2nd ranked rushing defense. There is no woulda, shoulda, coulda in the NFL – you either won or you lost and in this case the Seahwaks lost.
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If Russell Wilson was playing then like he is now, we definitely would have won the game. But as far as “should have won”, I don’t really understand that. We got dominated on offense, and the run defense fell apart in the second half. What should have happened did happen. I’m really excited for the rematch. Could be the best game this year.

Torching Atlanta’s secondary isn’t something that has happened all year, but keep dreaming. Sure, he’ll get some catches, but Atlanta will make sure the Loins aren’t on offense most of the game. The Giants were held to two offensive plays in the 4th quarter. Atlanta wins easily here.
As for the Seahags – beating two of the worst teams in the league by a combined 91 points doesn’t change the fact that the team will not even be in the playoffs, but nice tryand fail at jumping on the Seattle bandwagon.

With the Chiefs either picking first or second in the draft its a crying shame that another Andrew Luck is not there. From what I’ve read on this site there isn’t even a QB there that is worthy of a top 10 pick in the first round. Got to be very frustrating for a Chiefs fan.

If the Ravens lose out the rest of the way and into the playoffs, I have to wonder if Flacco will be back with the team. I’d be pretty surprised if Ozzie Newsome and Steve Bisciotti reward Flacco with a long term deal if the Ravens flush the rest of the season down the toilet.

That said, Sunday’s game is going to be U-G-L-Y if both teams look as bad as they did last weekend. I give a slight edge to the Ravens even though they dropped their last two home games. Ravens win, 16-13.

“Calvin Johnson is going to torch that Atlanta secondary. I see him getting 200+”

He definitely will if Dunta Robinson is covering him. So glad when the Texans refused to pay him $10 million per and let some other stupid team overrate and overpay him. Cue the Atlanta Falcons! How’s that “shut down corner” working for you, Falcons? LOL

Chiefs like last yr late in the season will win in an upset, this time it’ll be of the Colts.
Lions will beat the Falcons in one of those late steals of a win that propelled them to 10-6 in 2012.
49ers eek out a close sloppy/gritty 17-14 kinda game to take division.
Andy Reid has had the most success against the Redskins and as his last home game may upset Redskins.
Hope to see records chased and come closer to being broken. Peterson & Johnson.

Alex Smith struggled as the receivers were mugged all night. Where as Kaep won’t be scared to throw his receiver open. I expect another close game but nowhere near last time. I’m gonna go with 24-23 Niners. Should be the best game of the year. Both young QB’s are ballers. Rams are up and coming and Cards just need a QB. The NFC West is about to become real nasty for the next decade

As a Niner fan being the underdog is always good. Remember last time doesn’t matter because both teams have new QB’s Alex Smith is gone and whoever was wearing Wilson’s uniform has been no where to be found. Can’t wait.

Oaktown49er, this weeks game will indeed be a good one, but (regardless of what MDS and Florio say) the Niners are NOT the under dog in this game.

If there is one team in the NFL that can beat the Hawks at home it is the Niners. But it will not be easy. This is a hungry Seahawks team with not much to lose and everything to gain. Whereas the Niners are trying to make good on what they accomplished last season.

49ers-Seahawks rematch has me fired up. I know players from both sides will bring it, there were some monster hits last game. Seattle receivers haven’t had drop issues and Wilson is converting 3rd downs. Kap makes them much more explosive. They are tied in scoring and tie for tops in scoring defense. The 12th man is the advantage just like their home game. Go Hawks!

The Seahawks? Didn’t you both pick NE last week too? Apparently very few of the “experts” ever seem to give SF any hope in what look like big games. Most thought they’d lose to the Bears, Packers, Saints, NE and SF pretty much handled all of them. Oh yeah, they beat Seattle once already as well.

…so the 40th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception creates some sort of magic that will help the Steelers win this Sunday? The fact that the Bengals defence has been playing lights out doesn’t factor in, but some BS about the 40th anniversary of a tipped pass does? Seriously?

Seahawks/Niners is going to become one of the best rivalries in football if it isn’t already.

Two similar teams any way you look at it.

I’m a hawks fan; I’d have to admit with the smith bro’s and that pass rush, the 49ers have the edge on a neutral field, but I don’t know if I would pick any team in football vs. the Seahawks at home. They are a young team and the home crowd and surroundigns seems to elevate them.

Taking the Seahawks by a field goal in what is one of the best games of the year and a wake up call for the rest of the league and the gunshot signaling the beginning of many years of Wilson v. Kaepernick and Carroll v. Harbaugh.

Seattle is better than the 49ers as a team, but the 49ers play their strengths well – good coaching. 49ers O-Line and D-Line are unmatched. If those 2 elements are on their game, it makes the rest of the team follow their playmaking.

I do think this is more 49ers year, and next year Seattle will be polished for a SuperBowl run. NFC West will be dominate for years.

Bengals are 0-6 or 4-10 since 09 as we did sweep them both in 09…. I really hope my teams comes out of Hines with a win…. No they dont have 6 rings but the goal is to continue to go upward and achieve the goals they have achieved…You cant do it until you slay Goliath… Pitt and Bmore are the Goliaths but they all fall eventually….

starderup says:
Dec 20, 2012 10:58 AM
Torching Atlanta’s secondary isn’t something that has happened all year, but keep dreaming. Sure, he’ll get some catches, but Atlanta will make sure the Loins aren’t on offense most of the game. The Giants were held to two offensive plays in the 4th quarter. Atlanta wins easily here.
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You clearly do not understand how the Lions defense works. They’ll just give up the touchdown in a play or two so the offense will be right back on the field. Detroit dominates ball control time because their defense gets scored on so quickly.

I see this as an implosion game for Cutler. Possibly a 5+ turnover day for the Bears offense. Using the Cardinals offensive calculator that will give the Cards about 17 points. Could they lose 21-17? You bet.

notwhoyouthinkitis says:
Dec 20, 2012 2:55 PM
Andy Dalton’s career QB rating versus the Steelers: 64.6. And it was just 56.4 last time they played. That just about says it all for Sunday.

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Funny because his “career” is a whole 3 games against them. lol Let the kid get his rythm with these receivers. They’ll surprise the Steelers. I’m not guaranteeing any wins or anything because the Steelers always step up against us because of division rivalry, but I sure as hell wouldn’t look past us.

“He definitely will if Dunta Robinson is covering him. So glad when the Texans refused to pay him $10 million per and let some other stupid team overrate and overpay him. Cue the Atlanta Falcons! How’s that “shut down corner” working for you, Falcons? LOL”

@jprcox haha. ummm no. Gore is a beast but ill give u RB. We have a better O line, TE, WR, FB, D line, LB, S, P. Ill take crabtree, manningham and moss all day over rice and golden tate its not even close. Your CBs had a good season this year but we find out they were juiced and as far a QB goes wilson was a steal but kaep is the man. both guys havent played much. we will have to wait and see. Your claiming to be in the SB next year is just absurd. You need to make the playoffs first. seahawk fans are way overconfident after beating two really bad teams.

Its shocking to think the Bears will miss the playoffs … 8-2 to this? CRAZY.

Everyone in Chicago wants to get rid of Lovie – but a new QB would be a better solution. Cutler is WAY overrated and too full of himself.

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Bears were never 8-2. Went from 7-1 to 7-3 to 8-3 to 8-6. Don’t comment on a team you don’t watch.

Cutler is not an elite quarterback, but he’s not the main problem. It’s not even the lack of a decent OL. It’s about not having the same system and offensive coordinator for more than a year. From predictable (Ron) Turner to insane Martz to absolutely clueless Tice, he’s starting from scratch each time.

Lovie will get fired after Chicago wins at Arizona but loses at Detroit, and misses the playoffs. Fans like me will want Payton, Gruden, or Reid, but will get a nobody/new name/”next big thing!” because he’ll be cheaper than those established coaches.

If only Johnny Knox didn’t slip in that game against San Diego last year…

Mind you the SeaGulls are 1-3 in the division. Talk about an overatted team!
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They are better the second time around because the QB vastly improved his performance, and the rest of the offense followed.

The first seven weeks, Wilson finished four games with a rating below 83. Against the ‘niners, his rating was 38.7.

In the following seven games afterward, Wilson’s lowest rating was 88 (he was pulled out after a few minutes into the third quarter in that game). Five of those seven games, he was above 104…three of which were above 125.

They may be 1-3 in the division, but I believe they are still the only team in the NFL to have five wins against Quality Opponents.

And overrated teams do not get flexed into SNF…the only flex game this season, btw.

4d9erdynasty says:
Dec 20, 2012 1:20 PM
@ jprcox are u kidding seattle is better than the niners? seattle is a good team but not better than the niners. besides maybe your cornerbacks what position is better than the niners?
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CB, S, RB, WR, KR, P, K (the most important of all, since the game will probably come down to FGs)

@yourmomcalled. Your CBs are juiced. safety Earl Thomas is good but im guessing u never heard of 2 guys named Goldson and Whitner. niners hands down have the better S. RB ok. Again, i think 30 other teams would take Crabtree, Manningham and Moss over Rice and Golden Tate. Punter haha. Andy lee is 1 of the best punters in the game. Ill give u CB but Rogers and Brown are pretty good and they dont need juice. Ill give you RB and KR and since Akers have been missing a couple FG’s ill even give u kicker.. Niners have a better D and O line, FB, WR, TE, LB, S, P and better coaching. Even when pete the cheat was at USC Harbaugh was beating him.