Last week, representatives of the billion-plus nation said developed economies lacked “ambition” to combat mounting carbon emissions, and said that major emerging markets like itself were on track to implement policies aimed at reducing their respective carbon footprints.

Fast forward a few days and India seems to be caught on the wrong foot.

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A study compiled by the University of East Anglia in the U.K. and released earlier this week, said India’s carbon emissions have shot up by an estimated 7.5% over the past year, while those recorded in developed markets like the U.S. and European Union, had declined by 1.8% and 2.8%, respectively.

The report, published Monday, found India was the world’s fourth largest carbon dioxide polluter, accounting for 7% of total carbon emissions in 2011. China topped the list, pumping about 23% of the world’s total carbon dioxide last year, followed by the U.S. and European Union, which accounted for 16% and 11%, respectively.

True, India’s carbon emissions are still significantly lower than those of the U.S. or China, but with an annual growth rate as high as 7.5%, experts warn that may not be the case for long.

“India’s carbon levels will be at par with China, if not higher, by 2020,” says Corinne Le Quéré, a professor who specializes in climate change and who headed UEA’s research study. “The rates at which India’s carbon levels are multiplying… It’s certainly disturbing,” she said in an interview.

Burning fossil fuels, majorly coal to generate electricity, accounts for more than half of India’s carbon emissions, the country’s top policy-making body, the Planning Commission, noted in a report last year.

While efforts have been made to encourage alternative sources of energy, including solar, hydro and nuclear power plants, investments in low-cost carbon machinery – an expensive technology – have not been as robust as planned, the commission says in the same report.

Why so? “Low-carbon policies….. need to be differentiated across sectors based on national priorities and transaction costs of implementing the policy,” the Planning Commission noted.

In industries like land, water and forests, for instance, the commission feels “livelihood considerations such as income generation and poverty alleviation must dominate [their] policy choice, even if it requires overriding carbon emission concerns.”

As a result, relatively cheap and widely available fossil fuels like coal are still used to generate power in these industries, releasing several million tons of carbon dioxide each year.

By 2020, India expects to reduce its carbon emissions by at least 20% of its gross domestic product against 2005 levels, largely based on sustained use of alternative energy, imposing fuel efficiency norms for vehicles, and by strengthening public infrastructure – roadways, footpaths and public transport – to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Carbon emissions are measured as a ratio of GDP to give an overview of pollution produced per unit of output in a country.

“It’s not impossible,” says Ms. Quéré. “But at this stage, it looks tough,” she adds. UEA estimated that in 2005, India released about 1.4 billion tons of carbon, while in 2011, it emitted close to double.

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India Real Time offers analysis and insights into the broad range of developments in business, markets, the economy, politics, culture, sports, and entertainment that take place every single day in the world’s largest democracy. Regular posts from Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires reporters around the country provide a unique take on the main stories in the news, shed light on what else mattered and why, and give global readers a snapshot of what Indians have been talking about all week. You can contact the editors at indiarealtime(at)wsj(dot)com.