EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY's recovery last week suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 102.48. Subsequent recovery lost steam at 105.54, ahead of 55 days EMA. The choppy structure of the recover argues that it's corrective in nature and is merely consolidation fall from 111.57. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out yet as long as 103.33 minor support holds, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 111.57 to 102.48 at 107.25 and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 103.33 will flip bias back to the downside and send EUR/JPY through 102.48 to retest 100.74 low. However, sustained break of 107.25 fibo level will shift favor to the case that rise from 102.48 is indeed the third leg of the consolidation from 100.74 and would possibly send EUR/JPY through 111.57 before completion.

In the bigger picture, there is no signal of reversal yet with EUR/JPY staying below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and should take out 100 psychological level eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. Though, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 111.28) will raise the odd of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 123.31 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

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