Gordon Campbell on the only foreign policy in this campaign

Gordon Campbell on the only foreign policy issue
in this campaign

Ten years ago come
Saturday, the Taliban fled Kabul as the US–led
forces of Operation Enduring Freedom reached the gates of
the Afghan capital. Things have really gone swimmingly since
then, haven’t they? Stability, security and independence
are as far away as ever. At last count – by Jane’s
Intelligence Weekly, in their October 2011 edition – a
whopping 97% of Afghanistan’s GDP is still directly
related to foreign military and development aid, and to
in-country spending by foreign troops.

The desertion rate
in the Afghan Army? According to a NATO report cited in the
same article, one in seven members of the Afghan Army
deserted during the first six months of 2011. That’s
24,590 deserters in all, up from 11,432 in the same period
the year before. “In June alone, 5,000 soldiers
deserted,” the Jane’s report says, “nearly 3% of the
170,000 soldier force.” This hapless Afghan Army remains
Tajik – dominated, and the ethnic imbalance in the armed
forces continues to be a source of social friction. In 2009,
the ethnic Pashtuns who comprise 17% of the population
contributed only 1.5% of the recruits to the Afghan Army.

The failure of the Afghan war effort extends to Bamiyan
province. In July, the New Zealand’s Provincial
Reconstruction Team (PRT) work handed over security control
to locals during the first stage of a nationwide security
transition from NATO to the Afghanistan National Security
Forces. Since that July handover, the security situation has
seriously deteriorated. Afghan expert Professor Thomas
Johnson of the US Naval Postgraduate School (and
the author of the Jane’s Intelligence Weekly cover
story cited above) has described the situation in these
terms :

Local engineers in Bamiyan were
reported by media as saying that the surge in attacks had
severely disrupted security for the Ashpusht mine by the
first week of September. The mine is a key economic source
for hundreds of local residents who work there. Other
insurgent attacks left scores of Afghan police in Bamiyan
dead or wounded, since the security transfer with the
district of Tala wa Barfak nearly succumbing to insurgent
control.

So far, Afghanistan has been the
only foreign policy issue to emerge during this election
campaign. Only minor policy differences exist between Labour
and National on the subject, and even then, all the focus
has been on the SAS deployment in Kabul – which Labour (in
an entirely symbolic gesture ) wants to bring to an end a
few weeks before the March pullout date announced as likely
by the government. On the stump, Prime Minister John Key has
said that he won’t be revealing his final decision on the
SAS deployment until after the election. Allegedly, the
delay has something to do with Key having to inform NATO
headquarters first. (Given the time lag, Key must be
communicating with NATO by carrier pigeon.)

The exclusive
election campaign focus on the SAS seems misguided.
Reportedly, our 140 troops in Bamiyan are due to stay there
until 2014, amidst a deteriorating security situation. On
Monday, I wrote to Professor Johnson to get chapter and
verse on what he knew about recent events in Bamiyan which
(in the New Zealand media) is still being burbled about by
the likes of Deborah Coddington (“Peaceniks Disrespect The
Sacrifice of Our Soldiers”) in rosy terms:

Like it
or not, our troops are making a real difference, as the
Dominion Post's Vernon Small reported from Bamiyan province
in August, when locals told him it was the first time they
had had peace in 200 years.

That is sheer
fantasy. Yesterday, Professor Johnson related a quite
different picture to me, by email :

Since
the transition of security to Afghan Security Forces,
Bamiyan's level of security has slipped considerably,
according to residents, Afghan government officials, and
Afghan security officials. * The roadway linking
Bamiyan with Kabul (there are three driveable routes*) is
currently impassable for Bamiyan residents due to
insecurity, and flights are virtually nonexistent due to
poor weather. * The average cost to travel from
Bamiyan to Kabul is $208.30 (10,000 afghanis) and should
only take the better part of a day, but insecurity has
prompted many families to travel through Ghor to Herat, a
much more timely and costly venture that few families can
afford.* Afghan government officials are
considering dispatching an ANA division to the Ghoraband
Valley area, where 100 fresh police recuits were sent late
last month to help secure the Bamiyan-Kabul roadway as it
cuts through Parwan Province. * The security
situation around the Ashpusht mine area has deteriorated
rapidly since August. In September, there was a series of
Taliban attacks against security outposts (at leat four ANP
including an officer were killed) near the mine, causing a
major disruption of work at the mine. Locals indicated the
Taliban militants came from the Tala Aw Barfak district of
neighboring Baghlan province and were not local
Taliban.* Efforts to supply more ANP forces to
protect the mine have been slow coming, and no details have
yet been released confirming reinforcements have been sent
to the area where the Ashpusht mine is located. *
However, 1,700 security personnel and several new
check-posts have been allocated for the Hajigak iron-ore
mine in Bamyan's Shinbar district. International mining
firms have put in bids to start mining the area (with bids
expected to be decided on this month). The mining operation
will likely provide much needed jobs for up to 30,000 local
Afghan laborers. However, providing adequate security is
essential to keep both the Ashpusht and Hajigak mines
operating.* The routes are: Hajigak iron-ore
mine in central Bamiyan province, officials said on
Sunday.Bamyan to Maidan Wardak, Bamiyan to Ghorband Valley
of central Parwan province, and Bamiyan to the Doshi
district of northern Baghlan province. Each are currently
impassable.

In other words, it looks as
though the NATO/US security effort in Bamiyan – including
presumably, that of New Zealand troops – will be
increasingly directed at protecting the mining by foreign
multinationals of Afghanistan’s mineral resources.
Activity that provides local jobs, but where the vast
majority of the profits goes offshore. Professor Johnson is
not the only person sounding the alarm about the trend of
events in Bamiyan. Even in July, other reports had warned
about the likely consequences of the security transfer in the
province.

That slim majority is likely to erode over the
course of the government’s second term. As Mana Party
leader Hone Harawira argued in a recent Native Affairs
debate programme, the tens of millions of dollars currently
being spent to keep our troops in Afghanistan would be far
better spent at home – in combating, for instance, the
hunger and Third World diseases currently blighting the
lives of children in New Zealand’s poorest families, as
this RNZ Insight report on poverty (by RNZ political
reporter Brent Edwards) revealed earlier this
week.

There are wider strategic
reasons why we should not stay enmeshed in a
losing Afghan war. Unfortunately, the Jane’s
Intelligence Review article is not available online. But
in it, Professor Johnson draws a compelling comparison
between the current policy of ‘Afghanisation’ prior to
the NATO/US pullout, and the almost identical policy pursued
by the Russians, just before their ignominious departure
from Afghanistan in the late 1980s. Just as the US is doing
with Hamid Karzai, the Russians gradually abandoned their
own puppet regime, headed by Mohammad Najibullah.

The current Afghan political situation
resembles the unpopular Najibullah regime in many ways :an
often corrupt and mistrusted cabal of powerbrokers that is
viewed as illegitimate by parts of the country, a regime
dominated by foreign influence, and one whose authority
rarely permeates into the countryside, where an estimated
80% of the population resides. Like the Soviets, the US has
announced that on top of the hundreds of billions of aid and
support it has already spent in Afghanistan, over the next
eight months [starting in September 2011] Afghanistan will
receive an additional $US2.7 billion in arms shipments that
have been referred to an the ‘iron mountain’ by NATO
security analysts. This represents the largest transfer of
military equipment by the US or NATO in the past eight years
of conflict in Afghanistan.

At last
count, this new arms cascade into Afghanistan will consist
of 22,000 vehicles, 44 aircraft and helicopters, 40,000
additional weapons and communication gear. Does MFAT and
NZDF really have no concern at all about the regional
implications of such a gigantic arms transfer? John Key has
just launched a major drive to enhance New Zealand’s trade links with
India. Does Key think the Indians are not concerned
about being the ultimate targets of the US arms influx into
Afghanistan, once the Karzai regime inevitably collapses?

A new Afghan government allied to Pakistan will then be
turning its attentions to India. That’s why Pakistani
intelligence agencies have been supporting the Taliban all
along – to recruit an ally for Pakistan’s end game with
India. Frankly, we have far more to gain from getting onside
with India in these trade talks than we have by pouring
money and lives down the plughole in Afghanistan. If only
because the enemies of India stand to be the prime
beneficiaries of our current Afghan policy.

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