Welcome to the "World of Horseracing".
This blog has been providing information, comment, and selections for horseracing in the UK and Ireland since March 2010.

Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00

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There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives 30% of your lost wagers.

advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 14 March 2015

That's what I wrote on the blog on 9th February, and what a result for the blog yesterday's Gold Cup was! CONEYGREE (advised as an antepost wager at 12/1 on 9th February) made-all to blitz his rivals into submission in a performance reminiscent of Denman in his pomp.

Yesterday morning, after a night of rain and with rain continuing to fall on Cheltenham, there was a slight doubt in my mind that Coneygree would be able to make-all on ground that was very likely to be soft. I truly thought that Nicholls would order that Silviniaco Conti to push on and make a move on the 2nd-circuit but, as they headed up the hill, Coneygree pushed on harder from the front and you could see some serious horses (Bobs Worth, Sam Winner, Houblon Des Obeaux) starting to struggle and lose touch. At this point, Silviniaco Conti was in 5th and tho' he did take closer order, I knew he wasn't going to win. As they reached the top-of-the-hill, Coneygree came back to the following group, and I thought he may be starting to feel the pinch, but his jockey was just giving him a breather. At that point, I thought the main danger was Many Clouds. However, as they turned the corner to come down the hill again, Coneygree picked up the pace and soon there was only the Irish pair Road To Riches and Djakadam going with him. This race certainly identified the plodders from the quality horses. Some exemplary jumping from Coneygree, who was only having his 4th chase race, kept him to the fore, and his stamina never failed him as he galloped resolutely to the line.

This was a seriously better quality Gold Cup than the 2014 renewal won by Lord Windermere (who pulled-up this time never having improved from a tailed-off last position). I've rated the race thru' Road To Riches who I thought ran a cracker. Remember, Road to Riches beat Rocky Creek (now rated OR163) by 11-lengths at level-weights last November. I reckon Road To Riches ran a career-best of 168, which is 3lbs better than I rated him when he beat Rocky Creek. That puts Coneygree on 171, which is 10lbs better than the rating I gave Lord Windermere when he won the Gold Cup last year. This works in nicely with Holywell (beaten nearly 10-lengths into 4th) who matched his highest rating in my book of 162. The surprise of the race for me was the 6yo Djakadam, who himself was only having his 6th chase race. He completely defied my opinion of him and finally showed why there was such a gamble on him for the Hennessy Gold Cup last November, a race he competed in off a rating of OR142. It was only lack of racing experience that cost him that day as he was at least 20lbs well-in.

Coneygree's win has made this jump season the best ever for me and those who follow the blog selections.

PROFIT = £337.12
Total Staked = £595.00

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Friday, 13 March 2015

No advised winners yesterday but we came close in the World Hurdle with Saphir Du Rheu, and there was also a good word for Call The Cops who won in a convincing manner in the Pertemps Hurdle.
The performance of the day, perhaps the meeting (we will see) was Vautour in the JLT Novices Chase over 2m4f - absolutely stunning performance.

Overnight rain may have softened the ground.

1:30 Triumph Hurdle for 4yo’s (2-miles & 1-furlong)

Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap the Triumph Hurdle has developed into a serious Grade 1 contest in which the best 4yo hurdlers can show their promise.

·17 of the last 21 winners won LTO.

·17 of the last 21 winners had won at least two hurdles;

In recent years the race has been dominated by Nicky Henderson (who provided the 5th & 6th in 2013), Paul Nicholls (who provided the 2nd & 3rd in 2013) and Alan King who have each sent out 2 winners. Henderson has 3 entries including the fav, but I prefer his 2nd-string Top Notch.

No selection advised.

2:05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2-miles & 1-furlong)

My favourite race of the final day and (as it happens) one of the most competitive of the NH season, a real cracker of a race.

·5yo’s have won 9 of the last 16 runnings;

·Irish trainers have won 6 of the last 8 runnings;

· 4 of the last 5 successful UK trained winners were trained by Paul Nicholls;

·The last 9 winners were rated between OR131 and OR139

·8 of the last 13 winners ran in either the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown, or the Betfair Hurdle run at Newbury.

Based on the trends you have to consider the 5yo's Max Dynamite, Aso, and Forced Family Fun, but not Nicholls entry Dormello Mo who has not had a recent run. The bottom-weight Forced Family Fun is 50/1 with a number of bookies who all go 5-places eachway.
No advised wager, but worth a "tickle".

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3-miles)

Introduced in 2005, this race celebrates its 11th anniversary and, in my opinion, it already has a roll of honour that makes it a worthy addition to the Festival race roster.

·Just 2 of the 11 winners started at longer odds than 9/1

·No previous winner raced on the flat.

·7 of the 11 winners had previously run at Cheltenham

·7 of the 11 winners had run a race over 3-miles

There is no hiding place for those lacking in stamina and it will likely that the winner will already have won over the 3-mile trip but (as with 2011 Bobs Worth) that is not a necessity. In my opinion, the ability to stay 3-mile at this Grade 1 level is comparatively rare, especially amongst novice hurdlers.

The unexposed Out Sam has only his 3rd hurdle race today having won both his other starts, and he could be capable of a lot of improvement today. He's 16/1 with several bookies.

Selection:

OUT SAM, £5 eachway @ 16/1 available generally.

3:20 Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3-miles and 2½ furlongs)

The race considered to be the climax of the meeting.

·14 of the last 16 winners had already won a race that season;

·13 of the last winners were in the 1st-3 in the betting;

·Only Best Mate (in 2003 & 2004) has retained the Gold Cup since L’Escargot in 1971,

·No winner aged 10yo or older since Cool Dawn (aged 10yo) won in 1998 (and he was a 25/1 outsider) and before that Cool Ground (also 25/1) who was also a 10yo when winning in 1992.

It is very likely that readers will have already formed an opinion on which horse they will be supporting in the Gold Cup. It is that sort of race, a race of strong opinions and the taking of sides. Virtually nothing that I write here will persuade anyone to alter their opinion. Last year I was solidly behind Silviniaco Conti and he looked the most likely winner jumping the 2nd-last fence. However, he's a stayer with no change of gear and was unable to withstand the challenge of others on the run-in. Even so, he wasn't beaten much, and I expect this year he will be sent on earlier and make it a real stamina test on the 2nd-circuit.
I've had an eachway wager on Coneygree at 12/1 antepost, and he could be the one that beats him as he is unexposed at this level and we've seen already this week how bold jumping front-runners can dominate chase races.

However, I feel that Silviniaco Conti is guaranteed to be in the 1st-3 should he get round safely, and odds of 9/2 look fair value.

Selection

SILVINIACO CONTI, £10 eachway @ 9/2 available generally.

No further selections as I'll hopefully be on the Guiness aftger the Gold Cup.

I’d stick to the tried and trusted LTO winners (certainly no worse than
2nd) selection method. This is a tough 2m4f, so your selection should have proven stamina over
this trip but not, in my opinion, a win over trips in excess of 2m6f – that is
a negative. Just about the entire field meet the criteria, so looking just on chase form I'm of the opinion that PTIT ZIG is the best value in the race. I'm not convinced the form of Vautour is strong enough, and possibly trainer Mullins is of the same opinion which is why he also has Valseur Lido in the race. Odds of 7/2 don't leave much room for error. No wager advised.

2:05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3-miles)

Before Fingal Bay won as the 9/2 fav last year, you had to go back to 2003 to find the last successful fav, and to
2005 for the last horse to win at odds under 14/1. This race has been a tricky one for punters to solve over the years.

· 15 of last 22 winners carried between 10st 7lb and 11st 3lb (both of the last 2 winners carried more than 11st 3lb);

· 11 of the last 23 winners won LTO.A maximum field and not one to take a short price on. Even so, the Henderson horse CALL THE COPS won with a fair bit in hand LTO only 12-days ago and has just a 5lb penalty for that win.

2:40 Ryanair Chase (2-miles & 5-furlongs)

This race is now firmly established as a worthy Festival Championship
race, and is producing winners of the highest order. · Winning course form at Cheltenham – 9 of the 10 winners previous
winners had won at Cheltenham (Riverside Theatre in 2012 was the exception).

· Winning form in a Grade 1 chase – 6 of the last 7 winners (since the
Ryanair became a Grade 1 chase) had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Imperial
Commander in 2009 was the only exception).

· The Irish have yet to win the race.

The fav is Don Cossack and he has the best form going into the race, but my worry is that the ground may be a bit quick for him as his best form is on soft. I prefer the chance of the mare Ma Filleule who, if repeating last years performance here will go close (she was 2nd to Holywell in the handicap chase). Balder Succes is very consistent and he needs to improve to win this. Johns Spirit ticks a lot of boxes in this, but may not be quite good enough. Foxrock looks the type who wants 3-mile. Hidden Cyclone had his chance last year (ran 2nd) and is too old at 10yo. Both Tarquin De Seuil and Eduard aren't good enough and neither are the rest of the field. Not an easy race to fathom and, if pushed for a win wager, it would have to be Ma Filleule. However, Johns Spirit was running well in the King George when last seen until his stamina gave way and this trip is his best. At 11/1 with Paddy Power he looks the best eachway wager as he always runs a good race. Selection:Johns Spirit, £5 eachway @ 11/1 (Paddy Power)All bookies are quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.

3:20 World Hurdle (3-miles)

For the first time since 2009, BIG BUCKS isn't the main talking point.
Likely trends:-

· The age of the winner should be between 6yo and 9yo;

· Good recent form is very important and the winner will likely have run
1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO;

· The betting market is usually good at highlighting the winner and it
is unlikely that the winner will not be amongst the 1st-4 in the betting
(certainly at odds less than 10/1);

· It is very likely that the winner will have run at last year’s
Cheltenham Festival;

· The last horse to win this after taking part in a Champion Hurdle was
Nomadic Way in 1992.

The overall quality of this years race is below the usual standard, hence we have a massive 17 runners. I feel that Zarkandar should have gone close last year if he was good enough (I had my money on him) and he's not shown that he's improved this season. I was on Cleeve Hurdle winner Saphir Du Rheu when he won here in January, and for me that is the best form in the race - and I think he's capable of better! I think Lieutenant Colonel will be outclassed, and Whisper should be close but he's never been as good as Saphir. The only other potential winner Un Temps Pour Tout will need to find about 15lb of improvement on his run LTO and I can't have him. Paddy Power go 6/1 Saphir Du Rheu and that looks great value as I think he should be the clear fav at about 7/2.Selection:Saphir Du Rheu, £5 win AND £5 eachway @ 6/1 with Paddy Power (BOG, and quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)

As such, the overall interpretation of the long-term weight trends for
this race are changing as most of the field will be carrying more than 11st.

· 6 of the last 10 winners have carried 11st 6lb or more

· No winner in past 20 years younger than 7yo;

· Only 6 of the last 35 winners was a 7yo;

· Last year Spring Heeled was the first Irish trained winner since Greasepaint in 1983.

Being amateur ridden, you need to consider the talents of the jockeys - as happened earlier in the meeting with the excellent JJ Codd winning on Cause Of Causes. I reckon the winner will be ridden be one of the followind, Codd, O'Connor, Carroll, Waley-Cohen, Bannister or Legg as the winning jockey is always one of the best amateurs. The one I like the look of is the 7yo Clondaw Knight ridden by JT Carroll as this horse was going to be my selection in the opening days handicap chase but has been diverted to this instead. He is improving, stays 3-mile, handles the ground and is usually ridden handy to the pace. Odds of 20/1 with Paddy Power and BetVictor look generous to me. Selection:Clondaw Knight, £5 eachway @ 20/1 (Bet Victor or Paddy Power both BOG and quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)

Tuesday, 10 March 2015

What a great day yesterday was for the blog!Both selections were placed, and returned profits of £22.50 (Indian Castle) and £15.00 (Horizontal Speed) respectively making £37.50 in total. I also had a personal eachway double that paid over 15/1. Not only that, but I gave a very strong word for the winner Cause Of Causes, who won with a fair bit in hand. There will be a complete review of the Festival in the next week or so on the blog.1:30 Neptune Novices Hurdle (2-miles & 5-furlongs)A select field of 10 runners for this, perhaps the best novice hurdle on the calendar. Essentialy, you are looking for a LTO winner with at least 3 hurdle runs. of which at least 2 have been wins.Given the performance of horses from his stable yesterday, you have to respect the chances of his runners Nichols Canyon and Outlander in this race. NICHOLS CANYON looks the best of the Mullins pair, and they are likely to be well ahead of the English challengers. The odds of 4/1 on Nichols Canyon look very generous.2:05 RSA Novices Chase (3-miles & 110 yards)Again, you are looking for a horse with at least 3 chase starts and at least 9 NH starts (don't included NH Flat races). Experience here is the key to finding the winner, but you don't want to side with a top-class hurdler - no winner in 23 years had been placed in a Graded or Listed hurdle over a trip less than 2m3fYet another Mullins novice, this time a chaser in Don Poli. However, I think he will come unstuck in this race due top lack or experience. It won't be The Young Master (not shown he's up to this class), nor Kings Palace (who ran a stinker here last year), but by SOUTHFIELD THEATRE. This horse was just beaten in the 3-mile Pertemps Final handicap hurdle last year, and since then he's done nothing wrong. He looks an tremendous chaser in the making and odds of 15/2 with Paddy Power are great eachway value.2:40 Coral Cup handicap hurdleNot a great race for me and I'll maybe come back to this later.It is not unusual for horses carrying big weights to do well in this race.You need to look for a horse on the upgrade, preferably with no more than 3 runs this season. Unusually, this is a race for which a runner needs to come into off a long break, ie more than 45-days.3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (2-miles)Much will be written about this race, but for me I'm sticking with SPRINTER SACRE. His run LTO was on a par with the effort from Sire De Grugy, yet the manner in which they raced was very different. Of the others, there is some interest for Champagne Fever who could run them ragged if he's in the form of his Arkle 2nd last year. However, odds of 7/2 look far too big about SPRINTER SACRE.SelectionSPRINTER SACRE, £10 win @ 7/2 Note: I have already struck an antepost wager for £20 @ 11/4 on SPRINTER SACRE

Monday, 9 March 2015

It’s what we’ve all been waiting for and it can’t come
soon enough. Preparation for the 2016 Festival starts today! This year’s festival has all the makings of being a
cracker with some wide-open Championship races. Before we get
stuck into the runners & riders for Day 1 of the Festival a quick reminder
that the most important Festival trends to take account of are:-

- The
performance of ”Last Time Out” (LTO) winners – over 55% of races are won by a
LTO winner (180 from 317 since 2002);

- Weight carried
in handicaps – it takes an exceptional horse to carry more than 11st to victory
in a chase handicap ;

- The number of
days since a horse last ran – the average break from the last run is 35-days,
and very few races are won by horses off a break longer than 84-days (12 weeks). There have been only 26 races
(from a total of 317) won since 2002 by a horse off a break of more
than 84-days. These wins have been mainly in the “weakest”
races: the “bumper” (x3 in ’03, ’07, 09); the “Foxhunter” (x3 in ’07, ’08, ’09);
the “Mares” hurdle (x5 in ’10, ’11. ’12,
’13, ’14) and the X-Country Chase (x3 in ’09, ’12, ’14).

My stats go
back 13 years to 2002, which was when the Festival re-started after we lost the
2001 Festival to the outbreak of Foot & Mouth disease.

1:30pm Supreme Novices Hurdle, 5yo’s plus
(2-miles & 110 yards)

Always an eagerly anticipated race, all the more for the quality of the
field which is usually exceptional. Play it safe and stick to tried and tested
rules.

LTO winners have provided 11 of the last 13 winners.

An interesting observation is that only 4 of the last 13 winners ran
more than 35-days previously - so make sure your selection has had a run in the
past 35 days. This race rarely goes to a horse with an SP longer than 14/1 but with only 12 runners this year, that is unlikely. Don’t bother considering anything older than 6yo but there is only a single 7yo ion the race. It all hinges on the performance of the race fav Douvan who is expected to win convincingly. I'm going to oppose him with QEWY, who won in impressive fashion LTO and should handle the ground. The odds of 14/1 look fairly generous for a horse who looks capable or running 10lb+ better than he did LTO. No advised wager from me on this race.

2:05pm Arkle
Challenge Trophy Chase, (2-miles)

The “Arkle” is one of my favourite races. The race is usually run at a searing
pace and, on undulating track like Cheltenham, it is stamina sapping. As such,
I also like my selection to have winning form in a chase further than 2-miles.

You have to go back to Moscow Flyer in 2002 for a winner
older than 8yo.

The likely winner will have finished either 1st
or 2nd in every completed chase start.

Novice chasers capable of winning the “Arkle” have
usually shown their hand early in the season. Note however, that trainer Nicky
Henderson tends to start his novice chasers a bit later (recent winners Sprinter
Sacre and Simonsig ran their chase debut’s on 9th December and 21st
December respectively) so don't overlook Josses Hill for the fact his chase debut was on 19th Dec.

This year’s race hangs on the ability of Un De Sceaux who
was entered for last year’s Champion Hurdle, but missed that and won a Grade 3
hurdle in France instead. I will be looking to take him on as there is no way I think any novice chaser can be the 4/6 fav for the Arkle. It's a bit left field but I really liked the way Three Kingdoms battled back to win LTO and he's also well matched with Vibrato Valtat on their meeting in December at Kempton. The odds of 22/1 look really generous to me as this horse has a real engine and if his jumping improves then he will be a serious 2-mile chaser. Again no selection for me, but I will be having a small ew double on the opening couple of races. 2:40pm Festival
Handicap Chase (3-miles & 110 yards)

This is perhaps my favourite chase handicap of the jumps
season (excluding the Grand National).

Last year’s winner Holywell was the highest rated winner since 2001, and
with 11st 6lb, became only the 2nd horse since 1997 to carry more
than 11st to victory. He showed how well-in he was by following up at Aintree
in a Grade 1 novice chase.

This is a race for an improving horse, either a novice or 2nd-season
chaser with fewer than 10 chase races.

12 of the last 13 winners have been rated no higher than OR143.

With 8 of the last 11
winners priced at odds under 8/1 it pays to look at those at the head of the market.

Pay attention to LTO winners in the race (7 of last 13
winners won LTO) and also look at those with a recent run. The “mean” period is
39-days, but the last 5 winners ran no more than 24-days previously.

Personally, I’d put a line thru’ anything which has not
run in the past 35-days, and anything 10yo or older

He's not a LTO winner but his best run this season came 22-days ago, INDIAN CASTLE was the 7/2 for for the Kim Muir chase last year and was in the process of running a cracker when a mistake at the final fence did for his chances. Now with Ian Williams, he runs off OR139 that's 1lb lower than last years effort and at 22/1 (Betfred and Bet Victor who both go 5-places eachway) he looks a great ew wager.Selection:INDIAN CASTLE, £5 eachway @ 22/1 (Betfred and Bet Victor who both go 5-places eachway)3:20pm Champion
Hurdle (2-miles & 110 yards)

Another Championship race which revolves around the
chance of a Willie Mullins “hop-pot”; this time is Faugheen who won the Neptune
Novice Hurdle last year over 2m5f. It could be Faugheen the best hurdler we’ve
seen since Istabraq, but that has yet to be proven on the track. If he is then
he’ll win this by a country mile but, at his current odds, he has to be
opposed.

You can examine trends, but this year the key players
meet them – apart from reigning Champion Hurdler Jezki. As such, I feel he is
the value in the market as last year’s race was good, even if it wasn’t one of
the best. A repeat of that form will require Faugheen to improve considerably
on what he’s shown this season. No advised wager.4:00pm David
Nicholson Mares Hurdle (2-miles & 4-furlongs)

This race has been “promoted” and brought forward to this
slot.

For me, this another race that is out of place at the
Festival. Thankfully, Quevega is now retired but, if Mullins has sent an able replacement in ANNIE POWER
for this race it will be another virtual walkover.4:40pm National
Hunt Challenge Cup for Amateur Riders (4-miles)

This race is the oldest race of the Festival.

The first point to note is that this is an amateur riders
race, and so jockeyship and finding the right jockey is as much a part of
winning as finding the right horse!

The second point of note is that this is a Challenge Cup
were every horse carries the same weight (11st 6lb) excepting mares which
receive a 7lb weight allowance.

The horse with the highest Official Rating (OR) has won
this for 3 of the past 4 years and last year top-rated Shotgun Paddy was 2nd.
This is the first place to start when looking for the winner – it really is
that simple.

This race is dominated by 7yo’s and 8yo’s.

No 5yo has won in
37 years and there is only a single win for a 6yo in 25 years.

The top-rated are: Cause Of Causes (OR146), Return Spring (OR140), Sego Success (OR143), Thunder And Roses (OR148), Very Wood (OR147). Perfect Gentleman at 10yo is too okl to win this. The obvious candidates are LTO winners Sego Success and Very Wood who have terrific riders in Same Waley-Cohen and Nina Carberry respectively. However, I think CAUSE OF CAUSES has been aimed at this race all season and he has the excellent JJ Codd in the saddle. Unfortunately 8/1 is the best odds you will find.

5:15pm Centenary
Novices Handicap Chase (2-miles & 4½-furlongs)

I think it is a
tremendous race, and it is a great shame that organisers have placed this as
the last race on a 7 race card. I would really
like to see this race brought forward in the card, and it should be swapped
with the Mares Hurdle given the prominence it deserves.

This is a very
competitive race and a real head scratcher. No horse has won this at odds
longer than 14/1 so the market is a good guide.

Being a novice handicap chase, the statistical trends are fairly
obvious;

less than 5 chase runs; and…

less than 2 chase wins; and…

having won LTO – these 3 factors ensure that the selection is unexposed
and improving. Two that fit the bill are Generous Ransom and Horizontal Speed. Generous Ransom won a very exciting race at the trials meeting in January LTO and could be well handicapped on OR136. He won't be far away and neither will be Horizontal Speed who come here prepared by Phil Hobbs who knows what is required to win this race. Odds of 16/1 with Bet Victor who also goes 5-place eachway looks generous.Selection:HORIZONTAL SPEED. £5 eachway @ 16/1 (Bet Victor who goes 5-places eachway)Good luck all.

Saturday, 7 March 2015

The news that CUE CARD has been withdrawn from Cheltenham due to the need for a breathing operation is just about the final nail in my antepost wagers list. Thankfully, I'm on NRNB (Non-Runner, No Bet) so no loss of stake, but he's now alongside Dynaste and Al Ferof of failed antepost wagers lost to injury.
My last couple of antepost wagers are on SPRINTER SACRE for the Champion Chase and CONEYGREE for the Gold Cup. I'm fairly confident about Sprinter Sacre mainly as I think the 2-mile chaser division is weak. I know that there are a lot of Sire De Grugy fans who think I will be eating my works come next Wednesday afternoon, and there are also more than a few supporters of Champagne Fever who are expecting that one to make-all under an enterprising ride. But I'm happy with 11/1 on Sprinter Sacre.
Coneygree is a tricky one, as it looks more likely that he will run in the RSA Novice Chase instead of the Gold Cup, but I think that will be a mistake. For one, he may not be fit next season, and I'm a "strike when the iron's hot" person. The ground will be in his favour, he's in tip-top form, and he has few miles on the clock.

No selections today. I'm concentrating on putting my draft blogs together for next week.

About Me

Life-time lover of horse-racing and gambling in general. I remember the days of the extel commentary in the bookies. I grew up bunking-off school to watch the likes of Nijinsky win the Derby (in 1970). Was there myself to watch Dancing Brave in 1986. Then lived in Hong Kong for a while (1990-97) and produced my own form-book and ratings there (as the local form was written in Cantonese); that meant I learnt a lot about horseracing there. Signed-up to Betfair (was with Flutter before that) in Dec 2001. Should make more money at racing than I do, but have tendency to waste winnings on silly wagers. I have moments of inspiration but never the conviction to follow them through.