Dodgers, Phillies Complete Roberto Hernandez Trade

AUG. 28: The Phillies have announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Victor Arano as the second player in the Hernandez trade. The 19-year-old Arano ranked as the Dodgers’ No. 14 prospect on MLB.com’s midseason Top 20 list.

Arano totaled a 4.08 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 86 innings of work at Class-A Great Lakes this season, making 15 starts and eight relief appearances. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com praise Arano’s 90-91 mph fastball (which tops out at 94 mph) and slider, though they note that his changeup needs more work. Still, Arano is physically mature for a teenager and shows an advanced feel for pitching, per the MLB.com duo, who project him as a starter in the long term despite the fact that he’s presently had more success in the bullpen.

AUG. 16: The Phillies have announced that one of the two players they’re acquiring from the Dodgers is second baseman Jesmuel Valentin, a 2012 first-round pick from Puerto Rico who was hitting .282/.352/.433 for Class A Great Lakes as a 20-year-old. Heading into the season, Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook 2014 listed him as the Dodgers’ 22nd-best prospect, projecting him as a utility player. MLB.com ranked him at No. 13 in the Dodgers’ system and was somewhat more optimistic, suggesting he lacks power but could be the sort of hitter who typically bats second in a team’s batting order. He is the son of former big-league infielder Jose Valentin.

AUG. 7: The Phillies announce that they have traded Roberto Hernandez to the Dodgers for two players to be named later or cash considerations. The Phillies placed Hernandez, along with a number of other players, on revocable waivers on Saturday.

The Phillies signed Hernandez to a one-year, $4.5MM deal last winter, and he posted a 3.87 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 121 innings for them, with a strong 52.0% ground ball rate. He has gotten good results recently, with a 2.18 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona, has played parts of nine seasons, also spending time with the Indians and Rays.

Hernandez’s role with the Dodgers is unclear. Obviously, they have a strong rotation featuring Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Josh Beckett has, however, struggled in three outings since returning from the disabled list with a hip injury, and Matt Gelb of the Inquirer tweets that Hernandez will start in Beckett’s place Friday.

For the Phillies, the move marks their first trade of a veteran since their very quiet trade deadline. It may have helped them that Hernandez’s contract was a relatively easy one to trade. The Phillies are currently 51-63 and in last place in the NL East.

ESPN’s Jayson Stark first tweeted that the Phillies would get two “lower-level minor leaguers,” and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted that the Phillies would select them from a group of players.

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They should if the fans/media are telling them it’s time to sell players for reasonable returns. Band aids aren’t going to fix this team. Prospects are. You can’t get prospects if you demand the world from everyone.

It’s a difference of a opinion on reasonable returns. The only player that RAJ has demanded the world for is Cole Hamels – a top 15 (arguably 10) starter in baseball locked up to a 4 year contract at a guaranteed rate. We’ll see this winter whether that rate is a bargain, market value, or an overpay.

Like I said – we’ll see this winter where it falls in line. If Lester, Scherzer, and Shields all come out this winter and sign $25+ M AAV deals (or 6+ year deals for more than $20 M AAV), then I think the scale tips toward Hamels as having a below market deal (especially if the Phillies throw in the $10 M they have been rumored to).

I’m not so sure that matters, though, because you’re still going to be paying 34 year old Cole Hamels $22.5MM and you’re likely going to be paying him $20MM the following year. He’s great now, but how great is he going to be in 4 and 5 years? The fact that he’s guaranteed to get a ton of money is not a selling feature.

It is if you only have to pay a 34 year old Cole Hamels $22.5 M while the market jumps up to paying “average” guys in their early 30s $10-$15 M. Or paying an ace of equal quality $25 M in his age 36-37 season.

You expect the market to make paying an ‘average’ guy $22.5MM look like a good deal in only 4 years? There are virtually no long term deals in baseball that have looked good in the latter portions of them. Cole Hamels is like the 5th highest paid pitcher in baseball. The fact that he’s locked into that rate for 4-5 more seasons is not a selling feature considering his age.

Didn’t say an average guy would make $22.5 M in 4 years. I said an average guy would make $10-15 M in 4 years (basing that off of deals we’ve seen in the recent offseason, where a guy like Phil Hughes made $8 M AAV or Scott Feldman made $10 M AAV). I could see those numbers jumping up by 20-30% in 4 years time.

I’m saying that. I don’t expect Cole Hamels to be much better than average in four years. Even if the average guy is making $10-15MM in four years, paying Hamels twice that is not going to be a good deal.

And that’s where our opinions differ so there is no real reason to continue this good discussion. I think he’ll still be above average in 4 years (maybe not top 10-15 anymore, but probably still in the upper 3rd of starters). Plus, I’m looking at it as paying for the life of the contract – not just that last year.

Good points, but I’m also looking at the length of the deal and not just the last year. It’s essentially a 5 year deal and I’m looking at the final two years where you’re shelling out over $42MM for him. In the age of better steroid testing, I look at Hamels as closer to Verlander than someone like Andy Pettitte. I’d be shocked if Hamels was still pitching great in year 4 and 5 (or even 3) of his current deal.

How are you so sure about that? And please give me a few examples of long term deals that have worked out. Just because other teams may give Scherzer and Lester monster deals doesn’t magically make it a good idea to trade for a guy who’s ‘guaranteed rate’ is essentially 5 more years at $110MM.

Define “worked out.” Everybody and their third uncle twice removed knows that when you sign a star player in the middle of their career, you’re doing so with the expectation that they’ll provide above what they’re worth for a portion of it, and below what they’re worth for a portion of it.

If you think that Cole Hamels will continue to be a top-10-15 pitcher in the sport for another 2-3 years, his $22.5MM AAV over 4 years is well worth it. At that point, he’ll be 33, well within the age curve for maintaining approximately his current level of performance. Yes, his age 34 season may see a dip – and if you let his option vest, so might his age 35 – but that doesn’t mean he won’t be more than worth his cost over the life of his deal.

This isn’t fantasy world, where 30-year-old players near the top of the sport are willing to sign deals that will expire before their best years are over.

That’s not my point. My point is that if, as a company, you are doing exactly what your customer tells you to do, you are going to be in trouble real quick (because the majority of the customers don’t think long term).

Media I’d give a little more credence to (I’m talking writers, not radio/tv shows – who are essentially fans with connections in Philly). And while a move can be supported/hated by the fans, I would never want a FO deciding their moves based on what the fans want.

Money has never been an issue. Why would they take the cash? What they really need is players, any players. Hell, I’m sure one of them could do better than Howard anyways. He’ll get his money (not that he earned it all) but I highly doubt the cash considerations would put any dent into the albatross amount of money he is owed.

How are you going to mention Beckett has struggled but not Haren?? Haren has been TERRIBLE outside of the beginning of the year and his last start last night. Beckett had a top era before he hit the DL. Roberto Carmona is coming in to replace Haren

I think he is a little better than a 5th starter on an average team, maybe not much more, but an inning eating 4th pitcher, but he is not far from league average in ERA (i think that is about a half run better than league average)

Bert has been wild this year. He’s had 10 starts (out of 20) where he has failed to finish 6 innings. I’d struggle to call that an innings eater. He’s also had 5 starts where he’s gone 7+ innings and given up 2 or fewer ER. To me, that’s pretty much the definition of a 5 starter (never consistent, can be really good or really bad – and at the end of the year, his stat line will look pretty average).

Yeah, his walk rate looks high, but I like that his ground ball rate is high and that he apparently has pitched well after the All-Star break.
I think Hernandez is likely to be used as a 5th starter at some point because Beckett’s got a degenerative hip condition and he has been really struggling of late. He’s gutted it through like a warrior, but I think a DL stint is likely and it will be season, and likely career, ending.

To be fair to Roberto, most of those starts came in the beginning of the year, when he was presumably not as stretched out as he could have been. Since June 1st, he’s averaged 6.1 IP/start with a 3.95 ERA.

Hernandez has been pretty good this year and there’s no commitment beyond this year. I’m not saying a top 10 prospect. But a 15-20 guy and a low-level prospect isn’t an unreasonable ask for a rotation arm in a pennant race.

He’s a #5 SP, do you really expect much better than that? What you can count on from him is he’ll likely give you 6 innings and keep the team in the game. That’s what you hope to get from a #5 and generally what he’s provided this year.

As good as Byrd was for the Pirates down the stretch last year, I’m sure Neal Huntington would like to have that trade back if he could. Dilson Herrera was the main piece in that deal, and at just 20-years old, he looks like he might end up being a fantastic middle infielder. Combined stats this season between A+ and AA ball – .320/.375/.464 with 9 HR/59 RBI and 22 stolen bases in 503 plate appearances. The kid is a stud. Add to that Vic Black who seems to be getting better control of his huge fastball. I loved me some Marlon Byrd, but damn if the Mets didn’t take the Pirates on that trade.

Without Byrd there is a good chance that the Pirates don’t have a better record than the Reds and that wild card game that rattled Cueto is played in Cincinnati. Herrera MIGHT be good, but Byrd DEFINITELY got the Pirates to the next round of the playoffs.

Sweeney would be too much, the Dodgers are light on hitting prospects. Caughel and a struggling arm like Magill or Red Patterson would seem like a fair return if Hernandez works out well for the Dodgers. Hopefully the value in cash or prospects is dependent on the team’s or Fausto’s performance.

The Dodgers have 2 of the top 10-15 hitting prospects in Pederson and Seager plus Alex Guerrero who raked at AAA before he got bitten by Miguel Olivo. That’s 3 really good potential hitters. Sweeney is probably gonna be dealt or relegated to the role of utility infielder.

Moot point now that we know the PTBNL will come from a pool of A ball players.

They’ve already started moving him around in prep for a utility role. Last night and all month he’s been seeing time at CF, so he is somewhat blocked. That still doesn’t change how lacking the Dodgers are in minor league hitters. They have a few at the top as you pointed out but lack serious depth. Why would LA be so reluctant to move it’s prospects in a trade for Price or Lester but give away two of their better performers for Hernandez? Doesn’t make sense, especially when this ownership has shown a willingness to spend money in lieu of prospects over and over. Stan Kasten’s no fool.

Well, like I said, Hamels and Hernandez lead the team in wins with 6 each. After that we have Kendrick who has been one of the worst starters over the last 2 years and two recent minor league call-ups (David Buchanan and Sean O’Sullivan). Both of which are Kendrick clones at best. A.J. Burnett has been ok at times and bad at others. He could be traded soon too. And Cliff Lee is done for the season. Not much to look forward to.

I’d say Buchanan has a chance to be more consistently average than KK. Incidentally, Kendrick may be bad over time, but he’s had his flashes of brilliance too – and for the 2nd half of 2012 and the first of 2013 he was arguably the best Phillies starter (and not because Lee and Hamels were terrible).

First impression of a possible return – someone on the 40 man roster who they don’t think will clear waivers, a quick look at that list, and I see mostly pitchers. Matt Magill, Jarret Martin, Red Patterson, Jose Dominguez, and Yimi Garcia.

Not saying any of those is the guy we’ll see coming to Philly, just that it would make some sense (especially to have them as a PTBNL).

Yea, we got Martin (plus Lindblom) for 2 months of Shane Victorino (in a down year). Even if Martin fails as a starter (which looks likely), and turns into a decent bullpen piece (which if he has shown flashes of), I’d be ok with that trade. He got hurt late last year and hasn’t gotten his arm strength back 100% yet.

Sure its not bad, but my point is that a guy like Martin or Lindblom is very replaceable for the Dodgers. A team like the Dodgers should look at prospects as assets to trade to help the big league team. Even a lot of “elite” prospects end up not really panning out, more so lower rated guys. I think any guy given up (if any) in this trade won’t be someone who the Dodgers will regret trading down the road.

If RAJ did manage to turn the Pitcher Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona into some combination of Matt Magill, Jose Dominguez, and/or Yimi Garcia, he’d get a gold star for his work. As they’re all under-25 MLB-ready bullpen pieces with plus stuff, even if they’ve all got red flags about their efficacy.

Red Patterson’s more likely the type of return we should be expecting, as he’s a decent depth piece whose numbers look like they project a decent back-of-the-rotation piece even if he’s older than you’d like for someone. (As he’s spending his age-27 year in AAA.)

Yeah, considering the Dodgers desperately needed a back end starter for insurance, Hernandez was a nice pick up. Post All-Star break, he has been really good (2.18 ERA, .87 WHIP and .189 BAA in 3 starts) and he has a really good ground ball rate %. Conversely, Beckett’s Post All-Star break ERA is over 8 and he has a BAA of .382! Yeah, he needs to be replaced!

Per Matt Gelb of the Philly Inquirer, Hernandez told him he was going to start for the Dodgers on Friday against Milwaukee, in place of Beckett. So, Beckett is likely done for the year. That’s why this trade was made.

I don’t doubt that Hernandez is taking Beckett’s next start. I am questioning whether Beckett is done for the year. If that was the case they’d have put him on the DL already and opened the roster slot. Seeing what I see now, Beckett seems to be heading into the role opened by Maholm being done for the year.

I believe he has a torn labrum in his hip and that its a degenerative condition. I doubt he can recover in enough time (including a rehab stint) to contribute within the next 7 weeks. I think he is likely out for the year.

That diagnosis was made a month ago, and he’s made several starts since then. Not good ones, but he was pitching. He isn’t on the DL as of now. My feeling based on how the Dodgers have handled him is that they are trying to keep his workload to a minimum. The pen might be the right place for him.

Fine move by Colletti. Gave up no prospects of note (as reported, it will be two “low-level” prospects), and got a legitimate big league starter with no contractual commitment after this season. And he happens to be throwing well right now. The Dodgers will just hope he can give them a solid chance to win each time out. With the way Beckett’s hip has been and with how Haren had been in a total tailspin until last night, this is a sensible move. And if the Dodgers somehow land another starter, Hernandez could even be a decent right-handed bullpen piece with that hard sinker. Especially since I don’t trust a single member of the Dodger ‘pen save for Kenley and Howell.

I am glad to see him leave the Phillies, because he gives the Nats fits. I would rather have a few games without him to get to the playoffs than worry about whether the Nationals will face the Dodgers at some point. Don’t be too quick to dismiss this trade, either. The Nats got a similar deal for Cristian Guzman in 2010, getting two low-level non-prospect pitchers from the Rangers. One was Tanner Roark.

Wow…Jesmuel Valentin is actually a semi-decent prospect. He’s was one of the guys I was looking at when it was announced that we were getting 2 PTBNL for Bert. The other is Victor Arano. If we could get those two for 2 months of Bert, that would be a pretty nice move (even if they don’t turn out to be anything at the MLB level – they should plug into nice spots of semi-need for the system).

Jesmuel is blocked at 2nd so it seems like a perfect match between LA and PHI. Arano would be tough to swallow as a Dodger fan. I’d hate to see them give up a young starter who they are so high on as an organization. He was considered a top 10 organizational prospect before this season. I’m hoping it’s more along the lines of Jacob Scavuzzo a 6’4 raw athletic young CF who struggled this year or Scott Schebler.

Yea, I figured Arano would be a stretch (although, I did actually think Valentin was a bit of a stretch too). I think the Phillies will look for a pitcher with the second PTBNL – they have a fair amount of OF depth in the lower minors, but their pitching is pretty thin all the way through. Although, if we found a way to get Schebler, I’d be ok with that, too.

Clearly you’re higher on Schebler than I am, I don’t see him as anything more than a 4th outfielder. I’m a believer in stockpiling young arms so I’d rather they dealt from a position of strength like a AA LF hitting under .300 with a lot of swing and miss in his game.

OF is pretty full at the MLB level and they have Joc at AAA, Schebler at AA where Darnell Sweeney has been playing a lot of CF since July. Another 2B Alex Guerrero has seen a lot of run at LF this last month. They also look pretty smart for drafting CF Alex Verdugo this year. OF is usually one of the easiest positions to build depth and I think it’s a strength for LA.

So basically, we got (according to Baseball Prospectus) the Dodgers’ two “breakout candidates for 2014″ in the pre-season, for 2 months of a 4/5 starter we signed in the offseason on a 1 year, $5 M deal.
RAJ’s done a lot of wrong the last 3 years. But this was a pretty solid job from start to finish on Bert.

It’s not what he did, it’s what he didn’t do at the trade deadline. He could of trade for david price, jon lester or john lackey but he stood still while teams like the cardinals got SP’s for a decent return allen graig and joe kelly, dodgers had those pieces in zack lee & scott schelber. Now he’s trading for a pitcher on the decline?! Dodgers already have that in josh beckett and dan haren.

You’re right, Lee and Schebler weren’t enough to get a MLB front line pitcher. Maybe if LA gutted it’s depth throwing in more recent picks like SP Chris Anderson and Tom Windle but Boston made out on those two trades and I’m glad the Dodgers didn’t overpay for rentals.

Except lackeys publicly stated he’s going to honor the contract and pitch in 2015…..as of right now I’m going to take him at face value instead of believing your speculation that he will retire instead of taking 500k. But if I was traded to the dodgers id forget 500k. Not enough to pitch all season and not win a WS. So yeah if he was traded to the dodgers he may retire. But as of right now he has every intention if pitching for the cards in 2015.

Rather than do that, he’d prefer to get an extension. I believe he’ll do everything he can to get an extension before making a decision to retire, and as such he intends to pitch next year simply because he intends to have a different contract by then. It simply doesn’t make sense, from his perspective, to accept such a piddly paying year, and it certainly isn’t something that you should expect.