Gov. Henry McMaster (R) was forced into a two-week run-off campaign because his opponents held him under 50% support in Tuesday’s primary. Yesterday, two of his challengers, former Haley Administration cabinet official Catherine Templeton and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant, both endorsed the second-place finisher John Warren, a Greenville mortgage company executive and former Iraq War veteran. The endorsements were of little surprise because both individuals were also challenging the new incumbent Governor. Mr. McMaster became Governor when then-incumbent Nikki Haley (R) resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations. He was elected as Lt. Governor in 2014 with 59% of the vote.

As reported above (see Pennsylvania Senate) Franklin & Marshall College also asked respondents questions about the gubernatorial race in their new statewide poll. Similar to the Senate responses, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) leads former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) 48-29%. In March, Mr. Wolf led 38-21%, meaning both candidates have gained support. But, the March polling segment was significantly smaller than in the current poll. Gov. Wolf’s combined personal favorability registered 49:33% positive to negative.

The Colorado primary is June 26th and Strategies 360, polling for the Service Employees International Union (5/29-6/6; 500 CO general election voters; 387 CO likely Democratic primary voters with an over-sample of an additional 200 “Democratic-leaning midterm drop-off voters”), found US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) leading former state Treasurer and Colorado Democratic Party endorsed candidate Cary Kennedy, and ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston by a 34-23-12% margin. The addition of low propensity Democratic general election voters, particularly for the primary ballot test, is curious, and makes the ending result somewhat suspect, however.

Strategies 360 also tested Rep. Polis and Ms. Kennedy against state Treasurer Walker Stephenson (R) in a proposed general election campaign. The results are virtually identical. Polis would lead Stapleton, 42-37%, while Kennedy’s edge would be 43-38%.

Colorado is again using a 100% mail-vote system. For the June 26th election, the Secretary of State reports already receiving 134,038 ballots. The Centennial State has more than 1.2 million registered voters.

New York’s Siena College again tested the impending Democratic gubernatorial primary between two-term incumbent Andrew Cuomo and actress Cynthia Nixon. According to the Siena data, the Governor now leads his opponent, 61-26%, which is up a net four points from their previous 58-27% projection released in April. The latest Siena scoring is much better for the Governor than the May Quinnipiac University poll, however. In that latter survey, Gov. Cuomo’s lead was only 50-28% over Ms. Nixon.

Because Independents often win elections in Maine, and their Governor has won the last two electoral contests with less than 40% of the vote, Pine Tree State voters adopted a new instant run-off system through statewide ballot proposition, which will now be put to the test.

Last night’s Democratic gubernatorial primary ended with appointed Attorney General Janet Mills outpacing businessman Adam Cote 33-28%, but the race is far from over. In years past, Ms. Mills would have been declared the primary winner, but now the instant run-off system takes effect because no one obtained majority support.

Under the procedure, now in use for the first time, the last place finisher’s votes among the eight candidates will be distributed to the other seven candidates. In the primary, voters ranked their preferences from one to eight among the contenders. A last place finisher’s votes are then distributed to the others in the order that the last place finisher’s voters chose. Once those are distributed, the new last place finisher’s votes are then distributed according to stated preference, and so forth until a winner is decided. The distribution will begin Friday, meaning it is likely we won’t have a new Democratic nominee until sometime next week.

On the Republican side, businessman Shawn Moody won the party nomination outright, so he automatically advances into the general election.

A new small-sample Suffolk University poll conducted for the Cincinnati Enquirer newspaper (6/6-11; 500 OH likely voters) projects a change in the state’s open Governor’s race. This new poll suggests that former Attorney General Richard Cordray (D) has opened up a 43-36% lead over Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine (R). But, among the 16% who responded “undecided”, the overwhelming majority, a 2:1 ratio, are Republican voters. The Suffolk data contradicts other polling that posts Mr. DeWine to a similar lead. The race is open because Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

After spending much time trying to secure her own ballot position after gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz (D) passed away, former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin (D) announced yesterday that she will no longer campaign for Governor. Because Mr. Kamenetz died in the middle of the campaign and Ms. Ervin was his running mate, she had the option, which she exercised, of assuming the top position on the Kamenetz-Ervin ticket. But, state election authorities ruled that they would not change the ballots, meaning primary participants would still be instructed to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz for the tallies to count for Ms. Ervin. Despite Ms. Ervin’s exit and endorsement for Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker (D), Mr. Kamenetz’s name will remain on the ballot.

The University of Baltimore, polling for the Baltimore Sun newspaper (5/29-6/6; 500 MD likely Democratic primary voters), finds a tie at the top of the Democratic gubernatorial contenders list. The fact that the candidates are locked in a dead heat is not particularly surprisingly, but the low number of committed voters as the campaigns begin the final drive toward the June 26th Maryland primary is unusual and might question the poll’s accuracy.

According to the Sun poll, former NAACP president Ben Jealous and Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker (D) are tied for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with just 16% support apiece. No other candidate, including Valerie Ervin (D-Montgomery County) who took over the gubernatorial bid for the late Kevin Kamenetz when he suddenly passed away in early May, tops 5% support in this poll.

The Florida primary is not until August 28th, so this race has a much longer time to develop. Mayor Levine has launched several extensive media buys, which are likely responsible, at least to a degree, for his uptick in polling support detected over the past few weeks.

As we have been reporting, gubernatorial candidate Valerie Ervin’s (D) has been fighting administrative rulings to keep her name off of the ballot. You will remember she was the running mate to gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz (D) who suddenly passed away on May 10th. As was her right as the designated running mate, Ms. Ervin, a former Montgomery County Councilwoman, assumed control of the gubernatorial campaign, but the Maryland State Board of Elections ruled that it is too late to re-print ballots. The only way ballots count for Ms. Ervin is if people continue to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz.

Ms. Ervin twice challenged the ruling in court, losing both times. Yesterday, she abandoned her legal moves, and will attempt to convince her supporters to vote for Mr. Kamenetz. The Maryland primary is June 26th. The most recent poll suggests that former NAACP president Ben Jealous has assumed the primary lead. The eventual Democratic nominee with then challenge Gov. Larry Hogan (R).