August 2010

In part one we outlined a way in which service providers can tender for jobs by offering prognostic bids. For instance real estate agents or realtors already do this to some extent when they look around your house, tell you …

Initial Strategy The graph shows both my public and private scores (which were obtained after the contest). As you can see from the graph, my initial attempts were not very successful. The training data contained 206 responders and 794 non- …

Hi everyone, I am Jeff Sonas, the organizer of the Elo versus the World competition. Some of you may already know of me because of my writings on the web about various chess statistical topics; others may not. We thought …

When we hosted our World Cup comp we had a problem. There were only a few datapoints, so it wasn’t easy to rule out luck. And given the low level of scoring in soccer, there are more upsets there than …