First off, the point of this post is not to report on the players per se but the list itself. Now, a little background. The watchlist is something I created in 2010, the first year the site was in operation. I knew I didn’t want to rank the players from 1 to 50 (or, as it turned out that first year, 89) in part because it’s specious to compare pitchers to position players but mostly because that kind of stuff leads to pointless arguments about who was ranked too high/low, or at all.

For 2013, I decided to strike a balance by condensing the pitchers into dexterity (ending the carping about whether X was a starter or a reliever, natch) and creating four new categories:
• DSL Guys
• M*A*S*H
• Notable Arms
• Notable Bats

Are these guys full-fledged members of watchlist? Yes and no. Yes, in that we have an eye on them; no, in that these categories, by definition, are caveats. The first two categories are self-explanatory. The second two aren’t, but as I put it last November: they’re a means of acknowledging the ones that don’t quite merit full-fledged watchlist treatment, but are often discussed or mentioned.

I’m keeping these categories for 2014 because in a couple of months I’m gonna have some ‘splaining to do. [Here’s where we kind of get to the player performance part]. As is always the case, there are some players that hit their ceiling or underperformed in 2013. So long as they’re not old, it’s pretty easy to stash them in the notables if I decide they’re not up to snuff. When they’re not, well, then it gets difficult.

I’m leaning towards a no-repeat principle for the notables. If a player wasn’t hurt (in which case, he could be a M*A*S*H), he either played his way on or off the list. Otherwise, it feels like I’d be playing favorites. Maybe I’ll call it the Billy Rowell rule (who, if you’re not familiar with, was invariably tagged with a reference to his youth when his chances of making it out of A ball were assessed).

Graduating from the 2013 list are Anthony Rendon, Taylor Jordan, and Chris Marrero. All three have surpassed the limits for rookie status (plate appearances, innings pitched, or time spent on the 25-man roster), which is the standard that I and a lot of folks use for prospecthood because it’s objective. Who else comes off the list in 2014? Sorry, not going to single anybody out because it doesn’t serve much purpose, plus the list is something I create in the course of doing the affiliate reviews, which I still hope to start publishing in early October.

Otherwise, I feel like the 2013 Watchlist achieved its mission — to list the most prominent names primarily by virtue of their performance or progression in the year prior, not their bonus or draft status.

So here we are, a day removed from the last of three playoff teams to lose in their league championship series. Two of them were swept, the third may as well have been — limited to two runs in three losses after winning the first game. A fourth playoff team, which only garnered notice outside of our little bubble when they approached (and surpassed) the record for the winning percentage by a domestic-based* minor-league team, won the whole frickin’ thing.* Am I the only one that finds that qualifier offensive? Sure, there’s lots of corruption in the D.R., but less than in the N.C.A.A.

There’s a lot of talk about Washington entering Phase Two, which really applies to the parent club more than the minors, in my opinion. I tend to look at the minors progression like this:

1) Go all-in on H.S. picks, start to clear out the system that had been put on autopilot in 2002
2) First-round picks are used to get “generational talents,” college picks are used heavily to fortify the ranks
3) Spend heavily on the final draft before the new CBA kicks in, cash in on some of the returns of #1 and #2 for a SP
4) ???

…and I think the answer is “Replace/Reload Mode.” In other words, I think the Nationals have gotten to where they’re supposed to be: drafting and developing players independent of current need.

The success of the GCL — which I’d like to say I predicted with the line “if the Nationals can continue their post-Smiley success with the likes of Wander Ramos and Estarlin Martinez” but I don’t work for ESPN — is one reason for that optimism. Signing eight high school and JuCo picks out of eighteen draft picks is another (an obligatory H/T to “Springfield Fan,” who maintains the Draft Tracker that makes citing these numbers easy). Having them succeed, especially the trio of Jake Johansen, Austin Voth, and Nick Pivetta — SPs that pitched at multiple levels — is yet another reason (for a statistical rundown of how the Draft Class of ’13 did, visit this post by Todd Boss).

As I write this, the “Big Nats” are coming off their latest disappointing loss — remember that column questioning whether Davey Johnson’s “World Series or Bust” proclamation for 2013 was perhaps ill-advised after clearly overachieving in 2012? Me neither — but they’ve made a run lately with replacements that were developed and/or acquired in the last four seasons. Tanner Roark is the latest hero to the Natmosphere at large, but he’s old news to the folks here. Ian Krol came up what turned out to be mostly for good, save for a procedural demotion in August, along with Anthony Rendon’s second callup to DC in early June. Unfortunately, we barely knew him, having been largely considered a throw-in as the PTBNL in the Michael Morse trade.

Rendon, of course, became the replacement for Danny Espinosa, which is an unfortunate turn of events that I can’t summarize much better than this. Taylor Jordan shocked all of us by going from Potomac to DC, which earned him the honor of the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Rendon, Krol and Taylor are this year’s most notable graduates from the farm. Some kid named Bryce Harper headlined the 2012 class. Espinosa and Wilson Ramos were the 2011 grads. Ian Desmond and Stephen Strasburg, got the nods in 2010.

That’s what’s meant by “replace/reload.” There are others in that sequence of events — Tyler Moore, Steve Lombardozzi, Chris Marrero, Roger Bernadina, Drew Storen off the top of my head; researching rookie status is not easy — which you can see are mostly bench players or relievers. But that’s okay. One of the purposes of the farm is to develop players that can be plugged in when and where they’re needed. Or in some cases, provide a place for them to play until they’re needed, like Tanner Roark, Ross Ohlendorf, and Xavier “Nah, I’ll Just Take A Carry On” Cedeno.

And with that, I close the book on the 2013 regular season and perhaps enjoy a short break from the grind. I’ll begin work on analyzing the Instructional League Rosters this week and pass along minors-related news as time permits until the AFL starts up in early October, which is also when I hope to start publishing the affiliate season reviews.

After a busy weekend of transaction news, here’s a few tidbits to tide folks over in case things really do slow down on the minors front.

• Adam Kilgore gives us updates on Sammy Solis, Nathan Karns, and a whole lot of info on Steve Souza. To be fair, Souza has long been a favorite of Nats management, which explains in part why he’s stuck around despite suspensions for PEDs and off-field incidents. The other part, of course, is that he’s also a five-tool talent, which is why yours truly has put him on the site’s watchlist all three times.

Yeah, there might be a few instances in which the game played that day will be an afterthought.

So what does this mean for us?

Unlike last year, there’s no Bryce Harper madness. Oh, I’m sure if Anthony Rendon has a hot start there will be a drumbeat for him, perhaps even the suggestion of him replacing Espinosa as the incumbent second baseman, but I think the best that his fans can hope for is a ticket to Syracuse instead of Harrisburg. That is possible, of course, especially if Carlos Rivero is traded away (likely) or makes the 25-man roster as a reserve (less likely) because he is out of options.

I have no idea. Wherever they want to put me to play I am okay with it. Whatever I can help the team, any spot they need help with I would love to help in any way I can. So if it is starting, relieving, whatever it is.

Unfortunately for Garcia, he has options left (three) which could lead to something perverse like being him sent down in favor of Henry “What’s That White Thing In Front of the Catcher?” Rodriguez. Likewise for Erik Davis (three), Cole Kimball (two) and as we discovered last November, Ryan Perry still has one option left. Obviously, much of the excitement for 2013 stems from how strong and deep the Nationals pitching staff looks like on paper, never mind the whole Stephen whatshisname thing.

Corey Brown and Eury Perez are going to have a tough time beating out Roger Bernadina and Tyler Moore for an OF spot, unless Chad Tracy gets hurt or shows sign of decline. Given his support from Johnson, his status as a Rizzo draftee, and his contract, it’s probably safe to bet Tracy won’t get cut in March. Still, with his multiple sports hernias, Brown and Perez do have youth and health on their side.

The signing of Chris Snyder as an insurance policy for Wilson Ramos does not bode well for Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano. While Snyder reportedly has an “out” clause if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster, he’s also an Article XX-B free agent — essentially, he has enough MLB service time to qualify for a $100,000 roster bonus if he begins the season with Syracuse and can still opt out June 1st.

Translation: If Ramos needs more time, the Nats are not going to start 2013 with a rookie as the backup.

Finally, whither Chris Marrero? There’s been chatter that he’ll be traded in Spring Training. With Tyler Moore ahead of him, and Marrero’s defensive limitations, it’s certainly possible that an American League club might be interested. There are contingencies at AAA if Marrero leaves (Mike Costanzo). But what kind of return he’d net for the Nats seems negligible at this point. Seems more likely that Marrero will start in Syracuse in the hopes of proving his health and productivity.

As always, my spring training focus is to post from the minors point of view for as long as it seems reasonable. Your mileage may vary

In the final installment of “Guess The Rosters,” we have the Harrisburg Senators. This is just the second time I’ve taken a swag at AA, and it’s highly doubtful I’ll expand this to Syracuse anytime soon.

A Twitter follower asked if the lack of fluidity at the major-league level makes this easier or harder. I replied it was the latter because the organization seems to be more active with minor-league free agents nowadays, and lot less likely to re-up with players it originally drafted — though I have a feeling that might change, given the treatment afforded to Garrett Mock and Matt Chico early on and more recently, signees such as Matt Torra, Ray Kruml, and Micah Owings.

Because it was my first crack at it, I hedged my bets on the bench, and clearly, with good reason. Souza threw me for a loop and I’ll have to admit that I very nearly put him on the 2013 roster… until I considered that Bloxom (another miss) didn’t get the bump, either (and both were/are 23-about-to-turn-24).

Rivero is easy to explain: He had played all of seven (7) games at AAA prior to 2012, and with more experienced infielders on that roster (McConnell, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Mark Teahen) it seemed unlikely for him to go to Syracuse. As for McConnell getting the nod over Josh Johnson (though the two would swap places two weeks later)? I got nuthin’

Whether or not you count my hedges as half-right (7-for-13) or half-wrong (8-for-15), my success rate is still (only) slightly better than 50/50. I guess that makes me more like Jim Cramer than Warren Buffett?!

As I mentioned yesterday, I’m probably being too optimistic that Skole, Hague, and Martinson will all get promoted. Perhaps Francisco Soriano won’t follow in the footsteps of Jose Lozada. Maybe Stephen King will return for a third season. Last year, a lot of guys were stashed on the disabled list (e.g. Potomac, which had eight (8) on the 2012 Opening Day Roster) and/or extended spring training and I suspect (know) that will happen again.

Hope folks enjoyed this little exercise… certainly helped fill up the week. Spring Training is next week, the accelerated minors camp starts the week after, but if last year is any guide, I suspect my spring-training coverage will be another week shorter as the odds of a minor-leaguer making the “Big Nats” seem a little longer.

Roughly the same as Hagerstown: 7-for-13, with a couple of positions wrong. Walters opened the season on the DL but was playing SS by the end of the month. We now know this was because he had a hamate-bone surgery. Kelso ended up playing 3B for roughly half the season, but this isn’t the American League, either.
The prediction of DH is one you can’t really get right or wrong in the minors because it’s not used the same way (e.g. Wade Moore was the DH on Opening Day for the P-Nats; Kevin Keyes was the LF).

Some mistakes flow from the misses I made with the Suns (Martinson instead of Rendon) but most were that I did not anticipate so many guys getting dropped down (Ramirez, Dykstra, Souza) and overestimated a couple of Hagerstown guys getting moved up (Leonida, Newsome). Nice to know now, but not sure if I’m not going to repeat those mistakes with this crew:

What makes this roster tough to call is that it’s the last one to get filled out. That might not make sense to the casual fan, but think of it this way: Low-A is for the draft picks in Auburn (mostly) and the GCL (rarely) that progressed as hoped the summer before. Triple-A is for the major-league replacements and the experienced prospects (some elite, some not). Double-A is for the medium-experience prospects (ideally, guys in their second full year of pro ball). High-A is something of a dog’s breakfast: the occasional elite first-year prospect, some second-year collegiate players, a lot of guys in their third year of pro ball, etc.

The net result is that there is something of a “pushdown” effect (though it tends to affect the “OGs” more than the prospects). Frequently it goes something like this: A triple-A free agent blocks a guy at AA that might have gotten a shot, who in turn, blocks a High-A guy from making the jump, etc., etc.

There are more repeats here than in Hagerstown, which may have been a mistake in and of itself, but I also went out on a limb with the trio of Matt Skole, Martinson, and Ricky Hague (spoiler alert for the next post). Odds are very good that I’m going to miss one or two there, but I’d rather skew too optimistic in this case, even if I probably ought to be more like Det. Sherman than the Littles (1:36 to 2:04).

As always, feel free to discuss in the comments. And don’t forget that the players, their families, and their agents are reading, too

Well, there’s a reason why I use the word “guess” instead of “forecast” or “prediction” — just seven of the 13 were on the Opening Day roster (misses in red), and just four of the seven were in the right position/role (mistakes are in blue).

Where’d I go wrong? Easy. I underestimated the Nats’ insistence on keeping Skole at third, guessed wrong that Rendon wouldn’t crack the Potomac IF (might have helped if I knew Walters was hurt) and that his shoulder was well enough to handle 3B. I did not anticipate Hague, coming off an injury, would be slotted above Martinson.

I don’t agonize as much about the backups because it’s difficult to know (1) how the organization values Player A vs. Player B (2) who’s going to be put in extended spring training (3) who’s going to pack it in. The only surefire sign is being released or placed on the restricted list.

I’m not terribly confident that I’ll do much better this time, especially with the injuries to Brandon Miller and Stephen Perez. The outfielders are a tough call, especially when I’m already sending up most of the Auburn OFs already and picking from a pool of guys like J.P. Ramirez, J.R. Higley, and Justin Miller.

It never seems to add up in early February, which perhaps is why I’m nonplussed.

After a couple of uneventful weeks on the signing front, the Nationals have started back up, announcing the signing of a pitcher and a catcher with an invite to spring training this afternoon.

Former Toronto fireman Jeremy Accardo is the pitcher. The 31-year-old Accardo split time between both AAA and MLB and Cleveland and Oakland in 2012, making 27 appearances in the majors with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.554 WHIP, and posting marks of 2.25 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 20 appearances in the minors.

Former Houston backstop Chris Snyder is the catcher. The almost-32-year-old spent 2012 as the Astros backup, slicing through National League pitching like (warm) butter with a triple-slash of .176/.295/.308 in 76 games.

Last week, the Nationals signed veteran AAA outfielder Jerad Head to a minor-league deal. The 30-year-old former Cleveland farmhand hit .268/.353/.451 in 85 games for AAA Columbus last summer. He is a career .276/.343/.495 hitter in four AAA seasons, and got a cup of coffee with the Indians with 10 games in late August/early September 2011.

All three guys are most likely destined to see time at Syracuse, presuming that neither non-roster invitee is released outright during spring training.

My apologies to anyone who might have been trying to access the site this afternoon — like Alois Bell and Applebee’s, we were having server issues. *rimshot!*

For the newcomers, this is a list of the players that are on our radar for 2013. It’s built upon the guys that catch my eye in the course of doing the season reviews, and it’s something that I’ve been tweaking each year, making some major changes this year, which you can read about here and here.

It’s not a depth chart or a prediction of how, when, and where guys will be used this year — though I’ll make some guesses like I did last year for the rosters of Hagerstown, Potomac, and Harrisburg. I may even take a swag at the pitchers again, especially since this upcoming spring training appears to be mostly an exercise of rounding out the bench and the bullpen, with very little prospect drama — much like last year when it was limited to whether or not Steve Lombardozzi and/or Corey Brown could make the bench (don’t make me ruin a future post!).

It’s been a theme that the worm has turned when it comes to player development and the Washington Nationals. Once upon a time, it seemed like they could only develop pitchers and even then, it was back-of-the-rotation guys* and middle relievers. Before Ian Desmond and Roger Bernadina ascended in 2010, it was pretty sparse — basically Ryan Zimmerman, who spent a grand total of 67 games in the minors in 2005. *Let’s face it: John Lannan may have been an Opening Day starter, but only on a 100+ loss team.

Since then, it’s been more steady… Danny Espinosa in 2011, Tyler Moore and Steve Lombardozzi in 2012, not to mention a couple of catchers that are on the verge, albeit most likely as backups (Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano). I suppose some credit is due for that Bryce Harper kid, too.

This is not to say Washington has become the Cleveland of the 1990s, but to paraphrase Terry Byrom — the organization sure has come a long way since the days of Larry Broadway.

Like the pitchers, Sickels has some principles that I’d like summarize before we look at the list:

…Instead of the Five Tools, Sickels looks at what he calls the Seven Skills:
1. Controlling the strike zone
2. Hitting for power
3. Hitting for average
4. Offensive speed
5. Fielding range
6. Fielding reliability
7. Throwing utility

…Controlling the strike zone isn’t strictly not striking out (Sickels likes a batter to walk about 10% of his PAs) but also comparing BBs to Ks, which means a guy that doesn’t walk a lot is tolerable if he also doesn’t strike out much, and there are plenty of guys that both strike out a lot and walk a lot, but there are very few good hitters that don’t walk much and strike out a lot.

…Sickels likes to look at OPS and a variation of Bill James’ secondary average in relation to his batting average. His formula is basically doubles, plus twice the number of triples, plus three times the number of HRs, plus walks, plus the difference between SBs and CS, all divided by at-bats. The point? That a low-average guy that either hits for serious power or gets on base a lot is just as valuable if not more than a high-average batter with less power.
…Offensive speed is how well the player runs the bases, not how fast. The best baserunners are smart and fast, but as many of us have seen, they’re usually one or the other but rarely both.

…Defensively, Sickels freely admits that he has to rely on the scouts heavily because the more advanced defensive metrics (e.g. Zone Rating) simply aren’t available for the minors, noting that range (which ZR measures) is developmentally more important than reliability.

The four guys that are bolded weren’t on the BA Top 31, but all are on the 2013 Watchlist (yes, I do take a small measure of pride in that). Blake Kelso, Kevin Keyes, and Justin Bloxom were dropped from this year’s while Harper, Lombardozzi and Moore graduated.

Of the nine guys that weren’t in the 2012 book, three were drafted last June (Renda, Kieboom, Miller). Two others (Burns and Ramsey) were drafted in 2011. For those wondering, David Freitas was graded a C+ while Jeff Kobernus was graded a C — both grades are the same as last year’s.

This year, the sole “sleeper” pick is Estarlin Martinez, a bat in search of a position, which seems to be LF after 30+ games at 2B, 3B, 1B, and RF. Martinez turns 21 in March and Sickels believes he’s primed for a breakout year, which will most likely begin in Hagerstown.

Most of the “bolded” guys are covered in the watchlist, which I’ll be finishing up soon, but I gotta give props for Sickels’s nickname of Spencer “Where’s The Earth Shattering?” Kieboom (link for those unfortunate enough to miss the reference), even though it’s pronounced Key-boom.

And with that, the annual review of the prospect books is complete. Two weeks to go until the full squad is due to report at Viera.