02Nov16

Analysis: US military assessment of Taliban control of Afghan districts is flawed

The US military says that the Taliban "influences" at least 25 of Afghanistan's
407 districts and controls only 8 more. The numbers are at odds with an
assessment by The Long War Journal of Taliban control in Afghanistan. The US
military's estimate does not explain how the Taliban is able to support multiple
concurrent offensives across the country and threaten five provincial capitals.

Click to enlarge

The US military's estimate of Taliban control and influence of Afghan districts
was reported by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction,
or SIGAR, in its quarterly report to Congress that was released on Oct. 30. The
data are current as of Aug. 28, 2016.

"[O]f the 407 districts within the 34 provinces, 258 districts were under
government control (88 districts) or influence (170), 33 districts (in 16
provinces) were under insurgent control (8) or influence (25), and 116 districts
were 'contested,' SIGAR noted, based on discussions with US
Forces-Afghanistan, or USFOR-A.

"USFOR-A described contested districts as having 'negligible meaningful impact
from insurgents,'" SIGAR continued. It is unclear if the so-called contested
districts have a "negligible meaningful impact" from the Afghan government.

The names of the Taliban controlled and influenced districts, as well as those
that are contested, were not disclosed by USFOR-A.

Additionally, USFOR-A said that the Afghan government controls or influences
68.5% of the population (~22.0 million) and controls 61.3% of Afghanistan's
territory (~350,000 square kilometers), and the Taliban controls or influences
8.1% (~2.8 million) and controls 8.7% of the ground (~66,000 square
kilometers). The remaining 28.5% of the population (~7.3 million) and 22.7%
of the land (~183,000 square kilometers) is contested.

The Long War Journal believes that the US military's assessment of the state
of play in Afghanistan's districts is flawed. A study by The Long War Journal
estimates the Taliban controls 42 Afghan districts and contests (or influences)
another 55. [Note, USFOR-A's definition of "influence" matches that of LWJ's
definition of "contested." The term "influenced/contested" will be used for
clarity to describe these districts. LWJ does not assess districts that are defined
by USFOR-A as "contested," which means neither the Taliban or Afghan
government hold sway.]

The number of Taliban controlled and influenced/contested districts has risen
from 70 in October 2015 to 97 this month.

Districts under Taliban command are typically being administered by the
group, or the group controls the district center. Additionally, districts where the
district center frequently changes hands are considered Taliban-controlled. In
influenced/contested districts, the Taliban dominates all of the areas of a
district except the administrative center.

A map created by LWJ [below] lists the districts thought to be controlled
[black] or influenced/contested [red] by the Taliban. LWJ believes that the
Taliban controls and contests more districts displayed on the map above,
however the districts listed on the map are ones that can be confirmed via
independent sources such as Taliban claims, US and Afghan government
reports, and news reports. For instance, the Taliban has traditionally held
significant sway in many districts in eastern and northeastern Afghanistan,
however the status of these districts cannot be assessed based on open source
information.

Without USFOR-A's list of Taliban controlled or influenced/contested districts, it
is difficult to compare the discrepancies between the US military and LWJ's
assessments. However, USFOR-A did provide information on one province
which reveals that the military is providing a best-case scenario of the situation
on the ground.

According to SIGAR, USFOR-A said that only 21% of Helmand province is
controlled or influenced/contested. This means that, according to USFOR-A,
only 3 of Helmand's 14 districts are Taliban controlled or influenced/contested.

However, numerous local and international press reports indicate that all of
Helmand remains a battleground, and the Taliban controls or
influences/contests far more than three districts. Based on these reports, LWJ
has assessed that of Helmand's 14 districts, six are known to be controlled by
the Taliban (Now Zad, Nawa, Musa Qala, Baghran, Dishu, and Khanashin), and
another seven, including the provincial capital, are heavily
influenced/contested (Lashkar Gah, Nahr-i-Sarraj, Kajaki, Nad Ali, Marjah,
Garmsir, and Sangin). The status of Washir district is uncertain as new reports
from the district are scarce. Nearly all of Helmand has been controlled or
influenced/contested for well over a year.

The situation in Helmand is so bleak that the Taliban has effectively
surrounded the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah for well over a year, and have
launched several forays into the city. Less than three weeks ago, the Taliban
ambushed a large convoy of Afghan troops after they negotiated their safe
passage from their base on the outskirts of Lashkar Gah. More than 200
Afghan troops were killed, wounded, captured, or surrendered.

The Taliban has also attacked four other provincial capitals: Kunduz City, Tairn
Kot, Maimana, and Farah City over the past several months. Additionally, last
week, the Taliban cut off the main roads to Maidan Wardak, the capital of
Wardak province just outside of Kabul.

In order to threaten these provincial capitals, the Taliban has deliberately
sought to control the rural districts surrounding them. These districts are vital
to the Taliban's insurgency. The areas are used to recruit and train fighters,
raise funds, resupply, and launch attacks into the population centers. This
strategy was explained by Mullah Aminullah Yousuf, the Taliban's shadow
governor for Uruzgan, in April 2016.

Despite the success the Taliban has had employing this strategy, General John
Nicholson, the commander of US forces in Afghanistan and Resolute Support,
NATO's mission in the country, has downplayed the Taliban's control of rural
areas.

[Source: By Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal, NJ, 02Nov16]

This document has been published on 07Nov16 by the Equipo Nizkor and Derechos Human Rights. In accordance with
Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a
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