Monday, November 2, 2015

2017 Cut Off Prediction with Columbus Marathon Results

Hi All! Hope you had a good Halloween weekend and congratulations to any NYCM finishers out there! I hope to one day run that race. It'll be interesting to see the qualification numbers for that one when I get to compiling the results (still got quite a few in October to do - it is, by far, the busiest month for top feeder marathons).

I need to go back and see if the trending analysis of Boston Qualifier Stats followed anything similar to what we are seeing until the colossal update of the 2015 Boston Marathon (i.e. lower trending numbers). Because as it stands, all the numbers (finishers, qualifiers, and rate of qualification) are trending lower (with the exception of Steamtown which was pretty much flat).

With the inclusion of Columbus, we have the following age group totals:

AG

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

% Qualifiers

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

% Qualifiers

F18-34

1314

15218

8.63%

1197

13608

8.80%

F35-39

603

5375

11.22%

561

5089

11.02%

F40-44

507

4632

10.95%

481

4191

11.48%

F45-49

464

2993

15.50%

451

2995

15.06%

F50-54

260

1877

13.85%

293

1899

15.43%

F55-59

141

966

14.60%

126

875

14.40%

F60-64

69

394

17.51%

65

402

16.17%

F65-69

21

130

16.15%

27

142

19.01%

F70-74

5

37

13.51%

3

36

8.33%

F75-79

0

11

0.00%

1

8

12.50%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M18-34

1151

13076

8.80%

981

11560

8.49%

M35-39

526

6004

8.76%

509

5529

9.21%

M40-44

583

5910

9.86%

525

5407

9.71%

M45-49

668

4632

14.42%

585

4391

13.32%

M50-54

536

3546

15.12%

450

3317

13.57%

M55-59

327

2249

14.54%

294

2152

13.66%

M60-64

196

1118

17.53%

172

1095

15.71%

M65-59

50

302

16.56%

41

304

13.49%

M65-69

32

143

22.38%

28

129

21.71%

M70-74

31

169

18.34%

20

155

12.90%

M75-79

5

46

10.87%

8

42

19.05%

M80+

0

8

0.00%

2

14

14.29%

Totals

7489

68836

10.88%

6820

63341

10.77%

The rate of qualification has bumped up since we included the Chicago results, though, again the fact that the total finishers is down, it still translates to 669 fewer qualifiers (about -9%).

The margin breakdown is as follows:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

450

6.01%

375

5.50%

1-2 minutes

456

6.09%

376

5.51%

2-3 minutes

413

5.51%

357

5.23%

3-4 minutes

383

5.11%

356

5.22%

4-5 minutes

351

4.69%

281

4.12%

5-10 minutes

1566

20.91%

1402

20.56%

10-20 minutes

1951

26.05%

1860

27.27%

20> minutes

1919

25.62%

1813

26.58%

Totals

7489

6820

The Squeaker Pack is 25.59% in 2015 vs 27.41% in 2014. Columbus results bumped up the size of the under 5 minute group as we saw that race had a significantly larger under 5 minute group of 30%.

On to the cutoff calculation...

The number of runners in 2014 in these 5 feeder races that achieved a margin greater than 147 seconds (so 2:28 or better) was 6382.

Taking the 2015 qualifiers of these 5 races and sorting by the margin descending the 6382nd runner has a margin of...

70 seconds or 1 minute 10 seconds

Next up is Baystate Marathon - looks like a small marathon but high rate of qualification. All the results are listed in one html page (which, when I'm parsing all this stuff that is my definition of a small race - Chicago had many many... many pages of results).