Opportunities: It's all in the foretelling ...

Here's the first clue on how Australians reacted to last week's news about Kevin Rudd's drunken visit to a New York strip club in 2003. A Morgan poll of 633 voters, taken by phone last Wednesday and Thursday, found that 87 per cent said they were "not concerned". Such is the rise of amorality in this society that not even conservatives care about this behaviour - 77 per cent of Liberal-National voters said they were not concerned about the strip club incident.

Instead, a record 74 per cent of voters approve of the way Rudd is handling his job as Opposition Leader while only 44 per cent approve of John Howard's performance - his lowest rating since 1996. And 52 per cent of the sample said Rudd would be a better prime minister than Howard.

You may care to factor that data into your prediction for the results of this year's federal election, and thereby win a gorgeous prize as soon as the results are confirmed. This column launched a futurology project last month with a prediction that the Howard Government would win with a four-seat majority, but in the seat of Bennelong Maxine McKew would defeat Howard, who would then be appointed governor-general by the new prime minister, Peter Costello.

Many readers have offered more creative scenarios below, and we invite you to join them. You may not necessarily agree with these theories:

"During APEC, left-wing protest groups battle it out with police on the streets of Sydney, causing damage and disruption. Several police are seriously injured. A group of extremists plotting a major terror attack are arrested. The fear generated of handing the reins of power to possibly 'soft on terrorism' Labor results in a narrow win for the Howard-led Liberals." (S. Bosman).

"In a last ditch move, Howard calls for a pre-emptive strike against feral cats. This is designed to score on two fronts: with the militarists/warmongers who only focus on the 'strike' regardless of the target, and with the greenies - protecting native animals from an introduced predator. However, the plan backfires when Joe Hockey has Howard arrested for violating the IR laws, which, as everyone knows, strictly outlaw wild cat strikes." (Allan)

"So that he will not lose an election, Howard will coerce someone to challenge him in the next few months, maybe Malcolm Turnbull. Rudd will still win easily." (Christine Browning).

"Labor will win and Costello will achieve his objective of both taking over leadership of the Liberal Party and not being in government at a time when the economy can only go down. Rudd will go on a spending spree while being unable to control his ministers and the unions. Costello, who will retain control over the Senate, will deny the supply bill so that the Governor-General has to step in to call a new election, which Costello will win easily." (Jeremy)

"A day before the election John Howard will declare that no child will live in poverty by 2099. He will weep and voters will be moved to the point of giving him another three years. Once in power, he will promptly extend dismissal laws to all companies, interest rates will skyrocket to 25 per cent - and he will blame Keating for this. He will sack Peter Costello and promote Tony Abbott." (Bette Streep).

The original challenge
This column has been emboldened to get back into the predictions business - and to invite you to do the same - by two bits of news. Our prediction is the Government will win the election with a margin of four seats, but John Howard will lose his seat to Maxine McKew, thereby allowing Peter Costello to become prime minister and then appoint Howard governor-general next year (from which position he will dismiss a future Labor government). Here's what provoked the prediction:

1) An apparent swing back to the Government. A Morgan Poll of 1780 voters taken over the past two weekends found Liberal/National support up 4.5 points to 40.5 per cent, and Labor support down 3 points to 47.5 per cent. According to the pollster Gary Morgan, this is the closest the parties have been since January. The poll was taken before last week's Costello outbreak, but we're taking it as the first sign of a tidal turn.

2) A revealing comment by the Prime Minister. Asked to guarantee he would lead the Government to the election, he told The Sunday Telegraph: "I have a position in relation to this and it, it, it applies for all time. For all time that's relevant. And I just don't intend, I just don't intend, I know you'll start saying 'Oh Howard, you know, he's altered his formulation.' Come on, you know that, I know you. Situation normal. Situation usual. Response normal."

The first soothsayer to be proved correct will win a handsome prize ... at the time that's relevant.

Posted
by SMH OnlineAugust 27, 2007 12:22 AM

LATEST COMMENTS

Coalition majority of 3 seats. (78 Coalition, 70 Labor, 2 Independents)
Howard will hold Bennelong.
Howard to retire soon after he clocks up his 13th year as PM. He will not endorse any candidate in the leadership ballot.
Kevin probally won't make it to the 2010 election. After 14 years in the wilderness the ALP is in no mood to give leaders second chances. Gillard will have the knives out soon after the election, but the party machine will deem her unsuitable.

Posted by: James on July 23, 2007 8:03 AM

So that he will not lose an election, Howard will coerce someone to challenge him, maybe Malcolm Turnbull. Rudd will still win easily.

Posted by: Christine Browning on July 23, 2007 1:27 PM

God I hope you are so wrong with your predictions. Mind you the gullible Australian Public has allowed the little rodent to lie, cheat, erode rights etc without so much of a whimper so far, so I am hoping that finally they will be voted out. I believe Maxine will win her seat, the public seem to be over John Howard, and hopefully the revelations in his book will contribute further to his demise.
Rudd is not my choice for leader, but he is at least better, although his support of the government over the Haneef scasndal is disgusting and I believe he has misread public opinion in supporting the government and may regret it.
Ithink that Labor will romp it in, and get about a 8 seat majority. Sitting ministers like Hockey, Turnbull, Abbott, Andrews will all lose their seats (from my lips to god's ears!!! ) Kevin will do his dash and Teresa Rein will want him to retire, and hopefully the Labor Party will come to it's senses and endorse Julia Gillard.

Posted by: dean on July 23, 2007 1:54 PM

The “revealing comment” of point 2 helped provoke a prediction? I don’t get it. Am I missing a joke?

Posted by: Simon on July 23, 2007 4:40 PM

Howard will lose his set. However, if the liberals hold power he will refuse to resign as prime minister but will have Tony Abbott act as his proxy (he would have prefered Joe Hick(ie) but Joe will also lose his sit.

Posted by: Ian Morgan on July 23, 2007 5:00 PM

Labor will win and Costello will achieve his objective of both taking over leadership of the Liberal Party and not being in Government at a time when the economy can only go down. Rudd will go on a spending spree while being unable to control his ministers and the unions at a time when the economy is collapsing. Consequently Costello, who will retain control over the Senate, will deny the Supply Bill so that the Governor General has to step in to call a new election which Costello will win easily.

Posted by: Jeremy on July 23, 2007 7:52 PM

What a load of garbage, Rudd will win! Howard will loose his seat and Costello will eventually moove on.

10 yrs from now Liberal Party may claw it's way back in, maybe.

Posted by: Jane on July 24, 2007 8:13 AM

The Federal election will be held on 8 December 2007 for these reasons:
1) "8" is considered a lucky number
amongst the Chinese. Bennelong
has a significant group of
Chinese(and other ethnic Asians).
2) JWH and JH are an extremely
politically powered couple. THEY
will not relinquish any degree
of power and authority, until
forced--by the electorate--to do
so.
3) The APEC gathering will create
much chaos in Sydney,
especially amongst those wishing
to 'move around in their own
city (home)'. If one 'difficult
Dick' can cause traffic chaos,
can we expect less from 21
world leaders with varying
degrees of self-importance and
entitlement?
And for these reasons, the next
Federal election will be held as
late as prectically possible--
8 December 2007. Howards losses
with at least a 16 seat majority
by the ALP.
(And his'mate' GWB will
have 409 days left in the White
House--the fewer the better.)
Robert J Lindley
Culcairn, NSW

Posted by: robert j lindley on July 24, 2007 9:05 AM

My prediction is that Turnbull will take over prior to the election being called and Little Johnny will "stand down" due to reasons of ill health (it'll be Janette's cited.) The real reason is that the Libs will want him to go and they will drag out calling the election while they are going so bad in the polls and possibly blow it out till January or to however late they can call it.
However, I do hope that this doesn't happen, I would prefer it if Labor wins office, Maxine McKew thrashes John Howard and he loses his seat and the PM at the same time, Peter Costello pisses off to private enterprise, Tony Abbott gets committed and Phillip Ruddock dies a slow and painful death after retirement.

Posted by: Di R on July 24, 2007 1:33 PM

Dear SIT
As an American (now Australian) who has been here for almost 40 years observing you Aussies in action, I think I can lay claim to having some insight into reading the Aussie electorial tea leaves. I think the pundits and polsters are in for a BIG surprise on the polling day later this year. The number that came to me about 6 months ago during my musings re the election was a Labour win by 27 seats. AND I also think Maxine will bring home the bacon in Bennelong!!!!
So there you have it.
Regards
Ed

Posted by: Ed Oberg on July 24, 2007 9:56 PM

Dear SIT
As an American (now Australian) who has been here for almost 40 years observing you Aussies in action, I think I can lay claim to having some insight into reading the Aussie electorial tea leaves. I think the pundits and polsters are in for a BIG surprise on the polling day later this year. The number that came to me about 6 months ago during my musings re the election was a Labour win by 27 seats. AND I also think Maxine will bring home the bacon in Bennelong!!!!
So there you have it.
Regards
Ed

Posted by: Ed Oberg on July 24, 2007 10:18 PM

Howard will be returned in a landslide!
A day before the election - John Howard will declare that no child will live in poverty by 2099! He will weep and voters will be moved to the point of giving him another 3 years!
Once in power - he will promptly extend dismissal laws to ALL companies - not just companies with less than 100 employees!
He will sell off the Murray Darling to a Private Equity consortium which will promptly sack 1000s of water employees and outsource them to China and India!
Interest rates will skyrocket to 25% - and he will blame Keating for this.
He will sack Peter Costello and promote Tony Abbott. Tony will then introduce anti-abortion laws.
A nuclear power plant will be built in Melbourne - next door to Steve Bracks.
He will send troops to Iran - cos Georgie told him so.
He will also have a residence in every state - so he can be near his kids and grandkids. The additional $50million a year to maintain them will be paid by us mug taxpayers!
Yep - we will get the government we deserve - YET AGAIN!

Posted by: bettestreep2004 on July 27, 2007 1:22 AM

I predict that the Liberals will win by 6 seats and that Howard will win in Bennelong. Howard will step down about 15 months afterwards (Leadership goes to Costello) and Maxine will win Bennelong in a by-election then. Turnbull will narrowly win his seat over Newhouse this time but will keep building on his margin in future elections.
My hope is that none of this happens and that Rudd wins in a landslide.

Posted by: Antoine Doinel on July 29, 2007 12:35 PM

Howard will win because there is no reason to replace him. Maxine Mckew will get a lot of attention, but not take Bennelong. Rudd will take his bible bashing arse back to wherever he lied about it coming from. Australia will judge him as satisactory but dull. The country has forgotten Latham, but not the fact that the Labor party were so naive as to offer him up as leader. Trust issues remain. The voters who will count in this election will be sensible, steadily employed men and women enjoying Australia's current prosperity. They will have a choice between a leader who has been the architect of this prosperity or a challenger who would be out of his mind to do anything differently. Except becoming a Republic of course.
Malcolm Turnbull will be the next leader of the Liberal party. Costello will be thanked profusely for his contribution.

Posted by: harpie on July 29, 2007 1:14 PM

Libs will not lose the election. Labor cannot win the election.
Labor is still riding on the Rudd factor, but noone actually knows what he or Labor stand for anymore, and people are scared of the unions returning to run the show.
Howard will be returned with a reduced majority.

Posted by: JMB on July 29, 2007 2:33 PM

I believe Howard will lose Bennelong and Labor will win the election with a general swing of 5.74%.
The polls have been ominous for the Howard Government for some time now and I can't see the Haneef debacle or an interest rate rise in August doing much good for them.

Posted by: Ryan on July 29, 2007 3:56 PM

I would love to see Rudd win it in a landslide (with the Greens or Democrats having balance of power in the Senate for some sanity).
However, I expect a hung parliament, with the Greens to miraculously win at least 1 seat in the Lower House. I also expect Howard and Turnbull to lose their seats, and Costello to hang on to his by barely 1%.
The hung parliament would see the Independents and the Green/s side with Labor for a minority Government.
I doubt Rudd can completely overturn the losses Latham made from the last election.

Posted by: John on July 29, 2007 8:21 PM

Summary:
Election: 19 January 2008
Bennelong: McKew.
House: 2 Green, 2 Independent, remainder 50/50 ALP/Coalition (hung parliament).
(overall ALP majority 2 party prefered).
Senate: Greens pick up 3 additional seats (to their ordinary vote). Peter Andren POSSIBLY a win. Families First massive reduction in their vote (no seat). Coalition to lose 1 or 2 seats. ALP pick up 2 seats.
Balance of Power: Greens.
Reasoning:
Seeing the poll results, Howard will not call the election. The Governor-General will be forced to dissolve the House and the half of the Senate who are up for election.
Thus, the election will be on 19 January.
Mr Howard will lose Bennelong.
The Greens will win the seat of Sydney and one other seat (unsure which there are about three others they might have a shot in, if preferences are right).
So, the House will be 2 Greens, 2 Independents and an even split between the ALP and the Coalition.
I wonder who would take office in that scenario? Presumably, in spite of their problems, the Greens would choose Labor. The Independents (who would likely be Windsor and Katter) will choose Costello.
Since there would then be three parties making up the Coalition and two making up ALP/Greens, does that mean that Rudd would be PM?
Anyway, the Senate will be returned to normal. The Greens will likely pick up additional seats in Tassie, VIC and possibly (I cant believe I am saying this considering how conservative we are, but) NSW - as outrage against the perceived continuing 'right' direction of Labor.
Families First gain no further seats (will likely disappear after 2010/1 election).
The National Party will lose at least one seat in the Senate, but I suspect the Libs will too.
As for the Dems, well, if Tash were standing again, she would win her seat. As to whether any of the others could possibly win, Lyn Allison might have a shot, but the others are all dead in the water (poor Don).
I do think there is a chance Peter Andren will get up. But, if the Greens win more votes in NSW than they otherwise would, he probably wont. It will take a significant effort on his and his followers' parts to get him in.
So, I see the Senate being no gift for either government alternatives. The Greens are often reasonably adversarial, and Peter Andren actually likes to read stuff before he votes on it. Given the way he's dealt with Howard, I would assume he will be inclined to deal with Rudd in the same way (which probably wont impress the control freak).

Posted by: kate on July 30, 2007 2:21 AM

In previous elections Howard had a number of incidents which helped him get over the line: the Port Arthur massacre, boat people and Tampa, 9/11, Bali bombings. This time it may be exit from Iraq or a terrorist attack on Australia but it may save him and then he will resign in favour of Costello.

Posted by: Kevin Orr on July 30, 2007 11:29 AM

Howard will scrape in after scaring the babyboomers with predictions of how Labour's IR policies will hurt superannuation returns by destroying business confidence and therefore share prices and profits.

Posted by: Ray on July 30, 2007 2:53 PM

Howard will develop a mysterious "health problem" which although not life threatening will force him to step down several weeks before APEC. Costello will take the reigns and show all Australians what a leader he can be by hosting the conference. Meanwhile Howard will hobble from his sick bed to be feted by Bush as the greatest leader Australia has ever known. Costello will bask in the reflected glory. Howard will encourage a sympathy vote but be defeated by cynical voters who will recognise a real furphy when they hear one.
regards
Ann O

Posted by: Ann O'Brien on July 31, 2007 5:07 PM

Prediction:
Howard will win due to an last minute swing towards him in marginal working class... sorry "Aussie Battler"... seats when a small fraction of federal tax boon from the WA resources boom is used to fund a $400 per household "gratuitous bribe" payout to all those whose household income has been hit by WorkChoices.
The Labor Party blame Kevin Rudd and sack him as Party leader, despite him being the only half-decent talent they've got on the front bench. Julia Gillard heads up the opposition as the tactic of having a leader who can't pronounce the name of the country has been so successful for the Liberals.
MacQuarie Bank are given responsibility what little of the nations' infrastructure that they don't already own, freeing up our elected representatives to concentrate on their core competency of throwing mud and verbal abuse at each other.

Posted by: Matt on August 5, 2007 10:05 AM

From what I have been seeing (and hearing) I predict that the Liberal party will loose the election. The opposition will not win in a landslide, rather a comfortable majority.
The problem for the Liberals is now that no-one actually is listening to John Howard any longer. They should have dumped him and put Costello in - John Howard is now too old. A televised debate between Kevin Rudd and Howard would almost be embarrassing - it is only natural that your brain slows down as you approach 70 - and it is plainly obvious this is happening to Howard.
As they say ï¿½ time will tell!

Posted by: Wayne on August 5, 2007 1:01 PM

Of course the Libs are going to win. Better the Devil you know....

I have ABSOLUTELY NO confidence in baby face Rudd.

Posted by: Poppy on August 5, 2007 1:59 PM

Howard will retire before the election. He would like to push Abbot forward, but Abbot hasn’t got the numbers and most of the party realise that he is unelectable. In order to keep Costello out, Howard will settle for Turnbull -who the entire party recognise as their most electable contender. The election will become a personality competition between Turnbull and Rudd. Turnbull will win safely (okay, lets say 11 seats). Once elected, Turnbull will reignite the Keating doctrine of economic rationalism, deregulation and privatisation of everything.

Posted by: Naughty Stu on August 5, 2007 7:35 PM

The ALP will win this election.
But the world's economy is set to go into a tail spin, and our's will spin down with it.
Iraq and Afghanistan will get worse, and global warming will really start to bite.
A very bad time to be in government.

Posted by: Hal Duell on August 7, 2007 5:44 PM

During APEC, a "terrorist" group will place a biochemical toxin in to Sydney's water supply. Many will die. A week or so before the election, the government miraculously finds a cure and the public vote them in by a landslide.
Once back in power, they widen their "war on terror" powers and ban anything objectional (such as the Koran, homosexuality, dissension against the government etc etc).
Many years later we find out that it was the government that poisoned the water and they already had the cure for it, which they released in time to win the election.
Oh hang on - sorry, I was thinking of the movie V for Vendetta

Posted by: Richard Bolt on August 8, 2007 8:43 AM

Howard leads the coalition to defeat. McKew takes Bennelong. Massive swing to the Greens. Prime Minister Rudd announces a 6 seat majority and control of the senate. Costello is blamed for the election defeat by Howard. Costello resigns from politics and becomes chairman of Telstra. Howard announces he has cancer, and dies 4 months later. Janette re-marries a lepricorn and no-one notices Howard is now a permanent resident of Rookwood cemetary.
And the rest of us lives happily ever after.

Posted by: William Hurst on August 8, 2007 1:10 PM

Based on key economic election predictors – the unemployment rate, inflation and interest rates; when two or more of these rise over a full, three-year electoral cycle, the government loses – the government has lost.

I am not game enough yet to predict margins, but with Labor hovering around a 10% advantage there are around 40 vulnerable coalition seats. Interestingly thee are 14 seats 3.3 and below when Labor requires around 16 seats. The economics should ensue that much, at least.

Posted by: Dennis Cartledge on August 9, 2007 10:01 AM

Election will be held on 10 November. Labor will win with 80 seats, the Coalition with 68 seats and Independents holding the remaining 2 seats. John Howard, however narrowly bucks the general swing to Labor and hangs on in Bennelong. By the end of November John Howard resigns as leader of the Liberal Party to be replaced by Peter Costello. In mid-December John Howard announces his retirement from politics. With less than a 1% swing needed by Labor to capture Bennelong, Maxine McKew wins the seat in the resulting by-election early in 2008.

Posted by: Kiwipundit on August 9, 2007 7:11 PM

Howard will lose the next election. take your pick as to why. Just one list of reasons why he will not get my vote: Tampa, trujillo and Mac bank Executive salaries, housing affordability, interest rates, failure to support universities, Iraq and Bush, the myht of economic management, Haneef - Rau - scandals, the GST we would never have, the newly discovered national 'emergency" with Aboriginal Australians in NT, the attacks on democratically elected state governments, parking fees at Sydney airport courtesy of his mate Max, Ruddock.

Of course, we will not forget his huge interest rates under Fraser if he wants to go all historical to justify his outrageous dissembling in parliament this week.

Give Costello a go. Even with his alienating demenour he is advantaged by having a brother called TIm so he cannot be all that bad!

Posted by: Des Crawley on August 10, 2007 1:11 PM

My prediction is that Howard will win the election - probably by a margin of 3 - 4 seats. He will win Benelong quite easily to the astonishment of many. Costello and Turnbull retain their seats also.

About 6 months into their term and following at least one rate rise, Howard will attempt to take his IR laws further - taking away the fairness test and removing anti dismissal regulations.

This will cause a massive outcry from media, unions and other parties - even politicians within his own party. This will lead to a leadership challange by Costello. Media interest will mount on Turnbull to contest the leadership also, which he does, and he wins.

Howard will then retire from politics, followed by Costello several months later (he will probably write a book about his experience Mark Latham style).

Turnbull will continue on a similar path as Howard in regards to IR laws, but will possibly move to lessen our commitments in Iraq. Turnbull will be a more popular leader, but there will be grumblings about his wealth etc etc.

There you go, thats my prediction...

Posted by: Brent on August 10, 2007 2:39 PM

Liberals to win by three seats, Howard to remain as PM for another two years, before handing over to someone other than Costello. We need another two interest rate rises, or higher house prices, to see a large enough swing to Labour.
Howard will no doubt have some trick up his sleeve to deceive and sway voters in the dying weeks of the campaign. Don't expect to see much more of him on YouTube or Facebook

Posted by: Basil on August 10, 2007 3:13 PM

Combining a few of the theories here

Election held-out for as long as possible, allowing the coalition to claw back just enough support to win the election....by 1 seat.

John Howard does get ill (its a miracle he isn't already), is forced to retire and a by-election comes down to 100 votes...which Maxine wins. Rudd becomes PM, and the liberals fight it out for leader of the opposition, which no one will really care about.

Posted by: Raj on August 10, 2007 4:20 PM

The coalition will lose the election by one seat. The greens will win one seat. They will hold the balance of power in the lower house and support labor. The coalition will maintain the upper house. John Howard will be history.
Maxine Mckew will be elected. The coalition will be game to overrule the lower house as they would they firmly believe their own rhetoric and would assume that whatever Labor does will fail and therefore increase their chances of reelection in 2010.

Posted by: Mark on August 10, 2007 5:42 PM

John Howard will order a military invasion of the Cook Islands a week before announcing the election. This will be based on intelligence from US spy satellites that training grounds for Maori separatists in the Cook Islands are being funded by a small splinter cell of radical Tasmanian greenies with connections to Al Qaeda. After a stunning victory a special medal is awarded to the veterans and in the awards ceremony Howard makes the speech of his career, denouncing all nasty, un-Australian, lazy, homosexual, non-Anglo-Saxon people watching the live internet feed sent from the Hillside Church in Sydney. Victory in the January 2008 election is his. Kevin Rudd is appointed his deputy when they form a war cabinet in response to the national emergency of unlicences immigrant taxi drivers operating from capital city airports.

Posted by: Jim on August 12, 2007 3:07 AM

AMong others, by "the Tampa drama(a mother throwing her baby)" ...Mr Howard's mother (of course all fair minded mothers) must have disowned him...by interpreting the "legal matters in Dr Aneef's case"...Mr Howard's legal fraternity (of course the University that offered him the law degree)..must have disowned him...counting all his nasty tacts and tricks to remain in power ...will the voters disown Mr Howard!!!!

Posted by: Archer on August 12, 2007 5:17 AM

Jonny Howard will win with a considerable increase in seats and with at least a two seat majority in the Senate.He will win Bennelong. Peter Costello will never be PM.Possible Turnbull or Abbott will replace Howard when he retires probably on his 70th birhday.

Posted by: Jonny on August 12, 2007 7:49 AM

My prediction is that Howard will lose Bennelong and the Libs will lose the election. We don't need or want a PM who is past retirement age, and who, from the way he has been behaving, is obviously verging on senility.

Posted by: Rowan on August 12, 2007 8:10 AM

The main party candidates in my electoral region- Wentworth- are not even worth thinking about.
The opportunist, Malcolm Turnbull, and the Zionist, George Neowhouse...what a choice?
My voe will not include either of the above. It is such a pity that there is a dearth of decency in this electorate.

Posted by: Julia on August 12, 2007 11:54 AM

And that "dearth of decency" obviously includes you Julia.

Posted by: Peter of Randwick on August 12, 2007 3:12 PM

I agree with those who said that racism is not dead here as yet. It is now more sophisticated and divisive as usual.
It is hypocrisy at its height when people talk about assimilation, inter-racial marriages etc. One need just go to the rural areas where immigration has not brought about the prosperity and broadmindedness and one can see how much the original migrants have taken these things. The percentage of Asians taking up Australian citizenship is far more than the people from the areas having the largest migration into this country. Didnï¿½t the current prime minister scoffed at the ï¿½multi-culturismï¿½ and went on to change the name of the department dealing with migrations? Is this a good example to set? The leaders should set a good example and accept the benefits of the multi-racial society as it is the best way for everyone's good and prosperity.

Posted by: Esskay on August 12, 2007 7:31 PM

Whoever malcolm mackerras annoints as the winner of the election will go straight down the gurgler. Can we have him gagged until after the election? The rodent will have to move, screaming, from THE HOUSE, and the world will be a safer place.
b brill
hobart

Posted by: b brill on August 13, 2007 5:46 AM

As opinion polls continue to point towards a change in government, the Liberals will try to "do a Hawke" by replacing Howard as PM with Malcolm Turnbull. It won't work - Rudd will win the election, and the Libs will lose control of the Senate. Howard will lose his seat in Bennelong after Maxine McKew steps in to provide a reasonable solution to the plight of the 16 disabled adults Howard didn't even know existed in his electorate until he thought he might be able to make political mileage out of it.

It will be a nail biter, given that the chipping away by Howard will continue until polling day.
I suggest Rudd will win - but not by much - and the Greens will pick up at least one more seat in the Senate and perhaps even one in the House of Reps.
Despite polling I don't think Howard will lose Bennelong... if he did it would be a remarkable achievement by Maxine McKew. So I will predict that he will hang on but the result won't be known for at least two or three days.

Posted by: Judy on August 14, 2007 12:51 PM

During the APEC summit - leftwing protest groups battle it out with police on the streets of Sydney causing damage and disruption. Several police are seriously injured. Terrorism scares which turn out to be false alarms are reported. Another group of extremists plotting a major terror attack are arrested prior to the election.
The fear generated in the public of handing of the reigns of power to possibly "soft on terrorism" Labor results in a narrow win for the Howard led-Liberals.

Posted by: S Bosman on August 14, 2007 3:26 PM

rudd to win the election/maxine to win in bennelong/ turnbull to be new liberal leader/ and peter costello will take his bat and balland go home(retire) saying that he didn't want to be liberal leader anyway.

Posted by: srg on August 14, 2007 4:12 PM

It will be a close run thing-remember the last election when the ALP were the sure thing?
Libs will get in with a 2 seat majority.Howard will retire 6 months later and hand over power in a poisoned chalice to Costello.Howards seat will go to maxine and Iraq & Work choices will continue to explode in Costellos face.He will step down after 8-12 months hard work and hand over the reins to Turnbull.Kevin Rudd will still be in charge of ALP for want of anyone better...but may actually have formatted some policy to challenge the Libs!

Posted by: stu on August 15, 2007 8:33 AM

In a pathetic last move Howard calls a pre-emptive strike against feral cats. This is designed to score on 2 fronts: with the militarists/warmongers who only focus on the "strike" regardless of the target and with the greenies - protecting native animals from an introduced predator. However, the plan backfires when Joe Hockey (possibly coerced by Costello and Tuckey) has Howard arested for violating the IR laws, which everyone knows strictly outlaw wild cat strikes.

Posted by: Allan on August 15, 2007 1:36 PM

This was my answer three months ago when someone asked the same question. Since then Jackie Kelly has resigned - Lindsay is still in the bag though.
Possible Losses
Cowan (WA) Graham Edwards is retiring and we sit on 50.78% after preferences. WA is obviously on fire for the Libs and there was a 4.73% swing against us last time. If we can keep the primary votes about equal, then we may get it on preferences. But I doubt it.
Parramatta (NSW) Taking a big chunk at the southern end, and putting it back in Reid (including me grrrï¿½) wonï¿½t help. We sit on 50.77% and we donï¿½t have Ross Cameron this time. Goooone.
Swan (WA) This sits on 50.08% and itï¿½s in WA. No chance at all.
Possible Gains
Bennelong (NSW) Super Heavyweight Match ï¿½ The Champion againstï¿½the Peopleï¿½s Champion. ALP sit on 45.67% and the seat is creeping west. Maxine McKew could get us over the line here. Also, there were 21.71% minor party votes last time. ALP got a whopping 79.55% of those preferences. Thatï¿½s 15% of the total. Meaning Maxine only needs 35% of the primary. A real chance.
Bonner (QLD) 49.49% last time and Ross Vasta is under investigation for allowance rorting. Put this one in the bank.
Bowman (QLD) Only 40.88% last time, but Andrew Laming is also under investigation. Ah those wacky QLDers. A chance.
Braddon (TAS) a 7.09% swing thanks to Howardï¿½s environmental vandal mates cost us last time. But weï¿½re still 48.87% and thereï¿½s always a fair Green vote which comes back to us. Probable.
Deakin (VIC) Always close. 45.03% last time after a 3.37% swing against. Get that back and throw in the 66.97% of minor party preferences and we should sneak it back.
Dickson (QLD) Trivia time. Who said ï¿½Mary Delahunty was given a safe seatï¿½ ? If you answered Cheryl Kernot, win a prize! She lost it in 2001 and we now have 42.17% Iï¿½m counting on the big Kevï¿½s a QLDer to help us get this one back.
Dobell (NSW) What in the blue hell is this doing as a Lib seat anyway ? Bloody retirees! 44.10% after a 5.52% swing against. Probable.
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Ah the old bellwether seat. We need to get that primary vote up over 40% though. It was 38.74 last time. Probable.
Greenway (NSW) A tricky one. Hillsong won it for the Libs for the first time in 2004. We got 49.42% A lot depends on any redistribution. Possible.
Hinkler (QLD) 45.19% last time and itï¿½s in QLD. Whereï¿½s Billy Moore when we need him. Possible.
Kingston (SA) 49.93% last time. Thatï¿½s close. This is in the bank.
Lindsay (NSW) Jackie Kellyï¿½.says it all. How sheï¿½s lasted this long Iï¿½ll never know. Itï¿½s Penrith people !! Not definite, but after the votes in the State Election Iï¿½d like a dollar on winning this one.
Longman (QLD) Mal Brough has always been a bit useless. 42.34% last time. Longshot but achievable.
McEwan (VIC) Fran Baileyï¿½s seat. 43.58% last time after a 4.10% swing against. A big flow of preferences may get us home, but I wouldnï¿½t get too cocky about this one.
McMillan (VIC) Similar to McEwan. 45.01% last time. I think Victoria will give about a 5% swing overall. Very close. May just fall short.
Macquarie (NSW) Bob Debusï¿½ profile is sure to lift the pitiful primary vote up from the 27.76% of last time. One in five vote minor and 70% come back to ALP. A primary vote of about 36% should be enough. And, trivia fans, Wentworth Falls is the highest ALP voting booth in the electorate.
Makin (SA) If the voters put Trish Draper back in, they deserve her. 49.07% last time and one of the few places we got a swing. No more O/S trips for her boyfriend then. Home this one.
Moreton (QLD) Gary Hardgrave holds this, and yes, heï¿½s under investigation too. 45.83% last time. Lock it in Eddie.
Page (NSW) We got 45.77% last time. Thereï¿½s a big green vote up here. I reckon climate change will push us over the line.
Paterson (NSW) 43.03% last time after a 5.55% swing against. Should never have lost it in the first place. The ALP is a bit on the nose in the Hunter ï¿½ a lot will depend on climate change. Itï¿½s only a maybe at this stage.
Petrie (QLD) The Kev factor should help here. We got 42.08% last time. Doubtful but possible.
Robertson (NSW) Another Central Coast seat which used to be counted on. A small swing back to ALP last time. 43.19%. 72% of preference votes though. A primary vote of about 41% should be enough. Not impossible.
Solomon (NT) How is this seat not ours ? Itï¿½s ridiculous. 47.19% last time after a 2.72% swing against. Thatï¿½s 49.91% in 2001. Of course weï¿½ll win it.
Wakefield (SA) Libs have held this since 1946. I reckon weï¿½ll get it. 49.33% last time. I think we can squeeze another 1% outta it.
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbullï¿½s seat. We actually got 44.54% last time and thereï¿½s a huge green vote there. 31.87% voted minor parties last time but we only got 57% of them back. Probably wonï¿½t win it but weï¿½ll give ol millionaire Mal a good scare.
Wild Cards
Calare (IND) The seat has been cut in half and Peter Andren is going for the Senate. Nominally Nats.
Flynn (QLD) New seat. In QLD. Ours.
So, assuming all the other seats hold, this would give ALP 83 seats, the coalition 65 with 2 indies.
Letï¿½s have another look now. Bennelong, Bowman, Lindsay, Longman, mcEwan, McMillan, Paterson, Petrie, Robertson and Wentworth were all maybes. Thatï¿½s 10 seats. If we won NONE of them weï¿½re on 73 and the coalition are on 75.
Meaning, we have to win all of the others and at least two of these 10. These are the seats to watch. GAME ON !!!

SiT replies: What do you mean "we"? Rather more detail than we were expecting. Could you summarise all that in the form of a prediction of how many seats Rudd and Howard will win?

Posted by: Matty G on August 16, 2007 11:22 AM

SiT - by "we" I meant ALP supporters, as this was in response to same back in May. I think those I've nominated as "maybes" will be split about 50/50. ALP 78 Coalition 70 Independents 2. Hope this clarifies.

Posted by: Matty G on August 16, 2007 7:58 PM

I predict a landslide to labour with it winning a majority in both houses. People have been waiting ever since John Howard got in to find someone else they can vote for. Most of the present government front bench will go. Drover's dog for new opposition leader.

Posted by: BundyGil on August 16, 2007 9:52 PM

Howard will retain bennelong, after preferences. Essentially it will be a repeat of the state election liberal preselection with mckew's views not being conservative enough for the area and she will be seen as not being in the area long enough. Howard might be in canberra but he pops up enough in bennelong to ensure that he's seen.

Overall Howard will just scrape back with a reduced minority in the lower house. Joe Hockey will just retain his seat in one of the biggest shocks. Howard will retire about 12 months after.

In the upper house, some independents will get up, with the green's having a slight improvement.

Tv shows: Pushing daises, will become Australia's number 2 show after house goes to oblivion...

Posted by: nick on August 19, 2007 3:32 PM

I believe that Labor will win. taking the following 10 seats in NSW, 7 seats in QLD, 5 seats in VIC, 1 seat in TAS, 3 seats in SA but will lose 2 seats in WA for a net gain of 25 seats.

Further to this John Howard will just hold Bennelong but will not stay in the house after the loss of government

Posted by: Andrew on August 20, 2007 1:44 PM

I would discount much of what Matty says if he can't get some of the fundamentals correct.

For starters...

Trish Draper (Lib, Makin SA) has announced that she is retiring. Any musings on her influence in the seat are moot.

Peter Andren has (tragically) announced that he will not be contesting the Senate election due to ill health.

Matty, if you have missed these announcements, what else have you missed, mate? More wishful thinking than considered analysis, m'thinks.

Posted by: Rosie on August 20, 2007 1:52 PM

I always thought Howard got in in 1996 only 'coz Keating's arrogance was so on the nose for so many. Howard might lose this time only 'coz the punters have tired of him too. But he will pull a dirty rabbit out of the hat - a phony "terrorist plot" should do it. Say what you like about Keating, at least he was as honest as we can expect a pollie to be - not a lying rodent like "Honest" John. Unworthy Coalition win by 2 or 3 ... you'll be sorry, Australia..I think the prediction above that the dreaded baby-boomers will be worried about their shares and their super is on the money (pun intended). I'm a baby-boomer , too , but have worked for low pay in community sector for my fellow Australians - what an idiot i am - should be greedy , individualistic and selfish so i'd fit in with the majority

Posted by: dargie on August 20, 2007 2:16 PM

Rosie, if you had of read my initial comments, you would have seen that these predictions were made back in May, before the announcements of Andren and Draper.

If you missed that, what else did you miss ?

Posted by: Matty G on August 20, 2007 8:42 PM

Rudd wins, Golden age begins. Kim Jong-Il lobs some nukes around the region. Rud developes super powers cause by radiation and mutates into Super Kev. Flys to north Korea and saves the world. Kevin becomes power mad and outlaws masterbation.

Posted by: Serial Nuisance on August 21, 2007 10:50 AM

So Matty, if you made them back in May and then posted them on 16 August, why didn't you update your predictions? In the case of Peter Andren, I find it particularly callous that you left it sitting there without amendment.
In any case, the criticism stands. Trish Draper announced on 27 July 2006 (The Australian, p6) that she was retiring. According to my calendar, this was long before you made your initial prediction.
I still reckon your 'predictions' are hopeful rather than a considered judgement.

Posted by: Rosie on August 21, 2007 10:57 AM

Pistol Pete would never appoint Johnny Howard as GG. Imagine giving Grandfather Johnny the opportunity to do a Sir Jonker and dismissing him! Not a chance in the whole wide world.

Posted by: cecily on August 27, 2007 1:05 AM

I think Labour will win, as Howard's considerable arrogance with Iraq, the environment and with Work Choices (as in next mentioning it as policy at the previous election and springing it after he won and spending a ridiculous 50 mill in taxpayer money promoting it in the media), will figuratively bite him in the arse. As for JH's own Bennelong seat, I think he'll barely manage to retain it, but because Labour are very likely to get over the line, JH will resign - retire and there will be a by-election held, which Maxine McKew will most definitely win, so putting her there was a clever strategic move by Kevin Rudd, who knew that would happen.

Posted by: Mike on August 27, 2007 10:13 AM

It will be a 2-all draw with a few greenies and independents thrown in for good measure. The coalition still hold the majority of Senate seats and will try to block supply. However, the High Court will ensure nothing like the dismissal of 1975 happens again and have a special spill of the Senate whereby the whole lot is declared vacant and there will be state by-elections for all seats in the Senate in 2008. Kev probably will be given the chance to lead the lower house with an independent as speaker. Little Johnny will make it this time, but with the independents helping Labor to govern, he will retire leaving Maxine McKew to win the by-election.