Opinion Contributor

Rand Paul vs. Chris Christie: A New Hampshire cage match

The feud between these two is a preview of the 2016 GOP primary, the author writes. | AP Photos

By PATRICK HYNES | 8/8/13 5:21 AM EDT

It’s never too early to speculate about presidential politics to this Granite Stater’s way of thinking. And the feud between New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has given us a sneak preview into what the 2016 Republican presidential primary might look like. How would such a rivalry shake out in the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire?

Paul and Christie lead the field among named candidates in the Granite State according to a recent poll conducted by New England College on behalf of the NH Journal, a news site I co-own and help operate. Senator Paul earned 19 percent of the vote, while Gov. Christie earned 17.5 percent. A huge share of the primary electorate in this July poll — 20 percent — was undecided, however. So, although the field is still wide open, both Paul and Christie start with strong bases of support and should be considered co-front-runners, presuming they both seek the Oval Office in 2016.

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What’s more, the friction between the so-called establishment and the grass roots, which the Paul-Christie feud personifies, is especially coarse in New Hampshire these days. The next Republican primary will kick off against a backdrop of legitimate beefs, bruised egos and long-standing grudges between two groups of Granite State Republicans, who actually question whether members of the other side are of the party at all. It’s almost the perfect arena for these two politicians to battle it out.

On the specific cause of the feud, National Security Agency spying, the point would have to go to Sen. Paul. This is just my gut; I don’t have any data to back it up. But New Hampshire never fell under the spell of the “war on terror.” Granite Staters never cottoned to George W. Bush, neither as a candidate nor as president, and the Iraq War was always unpopular here. So while Gov. Christie might have perfectly reasonable arguments for why the government should track our personal communications, he’ll be fighting a built-in New Hampshire distrust of big government. There’s a reason “live free or die” is the state motto.

Now, onto the nuts and bolts of the coming campaign.

Issues: It neither begins nor ends with NSA snooping. Senator Paul’s issue profile is likely to be a considerable strength for him. As a purist, he’s free from the usual catalogue of votes that scuff up a candidate’s image. He’s very much the real deal. That’s not to say Gov. Christie is some typical politician who will be easily smeared. But running a big, diverse state like New Jersey requires compromise, and those compromises make devastating TV ads. Advantage: Paul.

Grass roots: It’s extremely likely that Paul’s grass-roots strength will overwhelm a Christie field operation, as well as those of all other probable contenders. In addition to inheriting his father’s grass-roots legacy, Paul will also benefit from the Free State movement in New Hampshire, which has blended with, though is not completely synonymous with, a very vocal tea party movement. The resulting amalgamation refers to itself loosely as “liberty Republicans” and they are very active, highly motivated and belligerently anti-establishment. They can also be extremely difficult to get along with and their belligerence will turn off some Republican voters. Nevertheless, expect that grass-roots strength in New Hampshire to give Paul a significant leg up. Advantage: Paul.