Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
07N BETWEEN 46W-52W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W N-NE TO OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 35N90W. WHILE MOSTLY MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N97W TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN W-SW TO A BROAD BASE
OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS MORE
PLENTIFUL HOWEVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST MOVES
E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
...HISPANIOLA...
NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL
STABILITY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM
32N59W SW TO 29N70W TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
HUFFMAN