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Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

Originally Posted by apdst

The point is, they would have gotten the weapons from somebody. Egypt has been buying weapons from Russia for decades. If we hadn't sold them weapons, they would have just bought them from the Ruskies.

It's irrelevant to the larger picture.

Mubarack repressed the people and now the Muslim Brotherhood is going to repress the people.

I reckon when the MB turns out to be as bad as Mubarack, that'll be our fault, too. The stupidity has to end, at some point.

I think that's unlikely. I'm actually in the process of conducting a statistical analysis on the relationship between democracy and economic development for countries that don't have oil-based economies. Egypt has far less freedom than one would expect given its level of economic development, so I expect that deposing Mubarak from power will be a very positive step in the right direction.

I've heard lots of comparisons to the Islamic Revolution in Iran...but this overlooks the fact that Iran is sitting on top of a huge amount of oil, whereas Egypt has very little. Oil is a major factor in how authoritarian a country is. Egypt may not have an easy path to democracy, but I think they'll do far better than Iran did for the simple fact that they aren't cursed with oil wealth.

Last edited by Kandahar; 02-01-11 at 09:42 PM.

Are you coming to bed?I can't. This is important.What?Someone is WRONG on the internet! -XKCD

Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

Originally Posted by Kandahar

I think that's unlikely. I'm actually in the process of conducting a statistical analysis on the relationship between democracy and economic development for countries that don't have oil-based economies. Egypt has far less freedom than one would expect given its level of economic development, so I expect that deposing Mubarak from power will be a very positive step in the right direction.

I've heard lots of comparisons to the Islamic Revolution in Iran...but this overlooks the fact that Iran is sitting on top of a huge amount of oil, whereas Egypt has very little. Oil is a major factor in how authoritarian a country is. Egypt may not have an easy path to democracy, but I think they'll do far better than Iran did for the simple fact that they aren't cursed with oil wealth.

I think you're dreaming, but only time will tell.

Originally Posted by americanwoman

So there is absolutely no evidence this woman, whom you called a slut, did this but you are ready to take someone's word as evidence. Guess you don't think witch hunts have to end when it's going after the certain people.

Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

Here's a list of the countries that I think are primed for serious democratic revolution or democratic evolution in the near future, starting with the best candidates of all. This is based on the results of a statistical analysis I'm doing, and isn't just a list I developed on the fly.

What these countries all have in common is that they have very little oil, and have far more authoritarian governments than the average country at their level of economic development. I think that nearly all of them will make substantial democratic progress in the next decade. It's no coincidence that the three Arab states on this list are the epicenters of the protests.

Last edited by Kandahar; 02-01-11 at 09:54 PM.

Are you coming to bed?I can't. This is important.What?Someone is WRONG on the internet! -XKCD

Re: "Beginning of the end" for Egypt's Mubarak, as son and wife flee

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

They hate us for a reason. They don't hate Canada, Japan, and Brazil for their way of life.

Supporting ruthless dictators is not only imoral it is against everything this country stands for. Eventually people rise up against them. It's funny how some fight against tyranny in this country but support it in others.

Actually there has been terrorists attempts in Canada as well as several other democracies. There have been successful Islamic terrorist attacks all over Asia and Africa as well as in Europe. Muslims are now building temples in Central and South America.

Islamism is not exclusive to the United States and anyone who thinks its America's fault just hasn't been paying attention.

Re: "Beginning of the end" for Egypt's Mubarak, as son and wife flee

Originally Posted by Grant

Actually there has been terrorists attempts in Canada as well as several other democracies. There have been successful Islamic terrorist attacks all over Asia and Africa as well as in Europe. Muslims are now building temples in Central and South America.

Islamism is not exclusive to the United States and anyone who thinks its America's fault just hasn't been paying attention.

So there is absolutely no evidence this woman, whom you called a slut, did this but you are ready to take someone's word as evidence. Guess you don't think witch hunts have to end when it's going after the certain people.

Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

Originally Posted by Kandahar

I think that's unlikely. I'm actually in the process of conducting a statistical analysis on the relationship between democracy and economic development for countries that don't have oil-based economies. Egypt has far less freedom than one would expect given its level of economic development, so I expect that deposing Mubarak from power will be a very positive step in the right direction.

I've heard lots of comparisons to the Islamic Revolution in Iran...but this overlooks the fact that Iran is sitting on top of a huge amount of oil, whereas Egypt has very little. Oil is a major factor in how authoritarian a country is. Egypt may not have an easy path to democracy, but I think they'll do far better than Iran did for the simple fact that they aren't cursed with oil wealth.

You might want to include Canada (and Norway) in your stats. We have a lot of oil and are not authoritarian. And while you are removing oil from the equation, you probably should add Islamic.

Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

You might want to include Canada (and Norway) in your stats. We have a lot of oil and are not authoritarian. And while you are removing oil from the equation, you probably should add Islamic.

I'm mostly looking at relatively poor countries. You're right, Norway is the exception to the rule...but Norway was already an established democracy long before they exported oil. Canada doesn't really export enough oil for me to consider it an "oil-based economy." I only excluded countries where oil exports were responsible for at least 5% of GDP.

I have also analyzed whether Islamic countries are more authoritarian than one would expect given their level of development, after taking into account that they're more likely to have oil. Of the five Arab states that have a GDP per capita under $10,000 and don't have oil, four of them (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan) are indeed significantly more autocratic than statistics would indicate they should be...which IMO is the impetus for all the protests in the latter three countries. The other Arab state (Palestine) is actually MORE democratic than expected. My conclusion is that the international community has a large impact on Arab democracy. If we want to promote it, as we have done in Palestine, we can. If we want to suppress it, as we have done in the other countries, we can. But I don't see any indication that Arab culture is fundamentally hostile to democracy.

Looking at non-Arab Muslim states, they're all over the place in terms of their level of democracy. I don't really see any pattern that would lead me to the conclusion that Islamic states are more or less receptive to democracy than anyone else. Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Mali are all more democratic than we should expect based on their level of economic development. Afghanistan and the other central Asian "stans" have a strong tendency toward dictatorship, above and beyond what we should expect. Pakistan and most of Western Africa are about as democratic as the statistics would indicate they should be.

Last edited by Kandahar; 02-02-11 at 01:37 AM.

Are you coming to bed?I can't. This is important.What?Someone is WRONG on the internet! -XKCD