With the dispatch of Russian troops to Syria, Vladimir Putin has opened ‘a second front’ against the West, one that is very different in its methods and intentions than the first one in Ukraine that he continues to pursue, according to Russian-American historian Yuri Felshtinsky.

In Ukraine, Putin has pursued “a ‘hybrid’ battle only in the sense that he has been pursuing a double goals: first, to seize Ukraine and start the restoration of ‘a Soviet Union’ or ‘a Russian Empire’ … and second, to show the entire world that Russia has the right to territorial conquests … beyond the current Russian borders.”

Yuri Felshtinsky, Russian-American author and historian

In Syria, on the other hand, Felshtinsky continues, Russia’s actions are not “’hybrid’” in any sense. Rather, they are “a continuation of the old Soviet policy which on the whole never changed” and that may be better described as “schizophrenic,” that is, one that involved as in the case of Israel supporting one country and then selling arms to that country’s enemies.

“It is important to Putin to show Europe and the US that Russia has the right to use its forces far beyond its borders if the interests of the state require this.” Putin thus considers that he is “acting ‘exactly the same’ as the US has in Iraq.

By sending troops to Syria, “Putin wants to show the world” that Russia has “parity” relations with the US. At his upcoming speech at the United Nations, Felshtinsky suggests, the Russian leader’s central message is thus going to be that “Russia is permitted to do what the US is permitted to do.”

In that speech, the Russian-American analyst says, “Putin will declare to the entire world that the rules of the game have changed and that Russia must be taken into account because it has an army and nuclear weapons and intends to use both, the first and the second, in the resolution of its foreign policy tasks.”

The Russian army, “the first foreign policy instrument,” has been used for some time: in Chechnya, in Transdniestria, in Georgia, in Ukraine and now in Syria.

The second, nuclear weapons, “remains in reserve.” Putin and his entourage will constantly remind the world of what could happen “if they push a rat into a corner.’”

All this means, the analyst says, that “the entire world now is concerned with yet another delicate mission: how to get the rat out of the corner in which he has gone of his own volition and does not want to leave although all the doors are open.”

“The optimists hope that Putin will publicly declare at the UN about his coming out of the corner,” Felshtinsky says, adding that he personally is not one of them and does not expect anything good.”

The reason is simple: “there are already consequences from the conduct of the military campaign in Syria, and they are very serious” because “the entire world considers these consequences catastrophic but Putin views them as positive.”

In the course of a very brief time, “Russia has been transformed from a peaceful partner into a militant opponent,” whose economy is no longer linked to the work market system but is suffering because of the falling prices for oil.

“Putin,” Felshtinsky argues, “consider this as the price for a new policy of Russia. Having devalued the ruble, he has made all the citizens of the Russian Federation into fellow participants of his foreign policy operations,” even though they have little or no influence on his decisions and aren’t about going into the square to “demand the overthrow of the Putin regime.”

Edited by: A. N.

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The dwarf is in Syria for a simple reason. Qatar wants to supply gas to Europe through a pipeline via Syria. Qatar’s gas costs 1/3 that of Dwarfstan’s and if that pipeline is laid Gazprom can kiss Europe goodbye as customer. Assad, as the dwarf’s ally, won’t cooperate with Qatar so he has to go.
But Assad’s other ally, Iran, also wants a pipeline to Europe through Syria. So if the dwarf stops Qatar, he will then have to deal with Iran.
And he can’t stop either Iran or Qatar shipping LNG to Europe. So at the end of the day the dwarf may be fighting another war he can’t win. And lots of his soldiers will be returning as Gruz 200.

Dalton

While I agree with most of your analysis Paul, I’m not sure how helping Syria fight against ISIS is against US policy, since we are as well. Sure I understand the political statements he may be trying to make, and It would of course help if the US had a more capable foreign policy team so there was a clear strategy and communicator that could help decipher what is and isn’t “against US policy,” but according to international law, Russia is well within its treaty rights to assist Syria I believe, and to me, the more Putin stretches the Russian military and redirects energies and assets, the less energy and assets are available to be directed at Ukraine, at least for the long term.

What I would suggest is that Putin is seeking an opportunity to “test” his weaponry against Western technology for potential weaknesses and future enhancement, as well as boosting Russian arms sales from battlefield demonstrations. If we truly believe he’s working against our interests in Syria, then I would suggest we make every effort to destroy the Russian military assets being brought without waiting for an introduction on the battlefield. Until then, hopefully our military and intelligence leaders are astute enough to develop strategies and operations that will incorporate Russian assets to our advantage.

Vol Ya

Let putin send his soldiers down to Syria. They will not be facing the Ukraine army down there. Instead they will be facing radical muslims there that don’t play by any rules of war. We will see what the reaction in russia will be will be when the muslims start posting videos of russian soldiers begin decapitated. I wonder how the Russian population will feel about that. Let’s sit back and enjoy the show.

About the Source

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. He has served as director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn, and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. Earlier he has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Euromaidan Press republishes the work of Paul Goble with permission from his blog Windows on Eurasia.

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