Friday Estimates: Superman Smashes Records, but Critical Reaction may be its Kryptonite

March 26th, 2016

As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the Friday box office with $82.01 million. This is likely more than the rest of the films will earn during the entire weekend. It is also the record for the biggest single day in March, biggest pre-summer single day, and biggest Easter Friday box office. That’s where the good news ends. The film’s reviews remain just 30% positive, making it one of the worst recent tentpole releases. Worse still, its CinemaScore was just a B. That doesn't sound bad on the surface, but you have to remember that the CinemaScore is from people excited enough to see a movie on opening day. Anything less than a B+ usually results in weak legs. In comparison, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen managed a B+ and had weak legs during the prime Summer season. Batman v Superman is on pace for a $172 million opening weekend, which won’t give it a good internal multiplier and there’s a chance it won’t earn $172 million during the rest of its domestic theatrical run. It will need a lively international run and a worldwide total of close to $1 billion to break even.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 had a much more subdued, but surprisingly strong start, earning $7.21 million. Unless it collapses on Saturday, it will top our $15 million prediction by a solid margin. The reviews are weak, but its CinemaScore is an A-, so audiences clearly likely it a whole lot more than the average critic did. Look for a $18 million opening weekend, which is what it cost to make. It should finish with about $50 million domestically and as long as it can match that figure internationally, it will break even.

Zootopia will land in second place over the weekend. It earned $9.52 million on Friday, which is better than last Friday. That makes sense, because it was Good Friday and schools were out. This makes it difficult to gauge its weekend numbers based on this result. If we use Home’s results from last year, we get a weekend total of $23 million. It might match Friday’s predictions of $24 million, because of Zootopia's better better reviews.