Views and analysis of Chinese politics and policy from inside China, outside the Beijing and Shanghai beltways

Wednesday, 19 July 2017

And Another One Bites The Dust—Except The Dust Hasn’t Settled

Various
new reports indicate that Chongqing party chief Sun Zhengcai [孫政才] has been placed under
investigation by central authorities here in China. Xinhua and other news
outlets confirmed
his removal, and his replacement by Guizhou Party secretary Chen Miner [陈敏尔].

And that’s all anyone outside of the inner leadership
circles of the Communist party knows right now.

Or maybe it’s that Xi is consolidating power (again and
still—a canard that’s apparently never going away). Sun is one of those
political dominoes apparently, whose disappearance is a sign that Xi plans to
remain at least through next term and possibly beyond. That’s one
interpretation—maybe the leading one for many at this point.

Then again, some have stated, perhaps this is all part of a
larger struggle between political factions, and that Sun’s removal is a blow
against—wait for it—“liberal
factions” of the Communist party (whatever they are, given that there’s
been no mention of them previously and little evidence that anything of the
sort exists these days).

The
straight reporting on this development has been revealing, especially
because at least one newspaper broke the story before the official announcement.

It’s the speculation that’s rather grating.

After all, if Sun’s removal was predictable, why wasn’t it
predicted? No one did so. That should say
something about how much of what passes for analysis is actually just
conjecture. Taking down Sun was surprising, if only because nobody said to
watch out for it. Why? Because no one saw it coming, even though many are
saying that it’s all about That Well-Known Struggle For Power In China.

Then there are the rumors about possible corruption charges
against Sun. But they remain just that—rumors. While charges of graft might be
added on to Sun’s charge-sheet later, previous announcements of high-ranking
officials being removed usually feature an accompanying mention of their
malfeasance. But not with Sun, at least thus far.

Anyway, how precisely does taking down Sun help Xi?

That’s not discussed. The supposition—and that’s all it is,
at best—is that anyone who gets politically decapitated these days is because
Xi’s in charge, and the victim is someone he doesn’t like, and needs to
disappear. That’s bizarre, because China has something called a collective
leadership--albeit with Xi at the core. Party rules and regulations render any
change in upper ranks an arduous process that can’t be made by a single
individual. But that isn’t mentioned, perhaps because it’s just easier to
single out Xi, even though he doesn't get to make personnel decisions unilaterally.

It is probably worth noting that there’s an assumption where
this case is being made: That Xi’s in command, but he’s trying to consolidate
power further, because that’s why Sun was removed. That’s some magic Xi’s
engaged in, winning fights while he’s still fighting.

Isn't it possible that Sun was dismissed not because of Xi’s
wishes, but in spite of them? That Sun was an ally (which is what many media
outlets outside China mooted before) and his removal does harm to Xi, rather
than assist him to—there it is again—consolidate power? In that case, Xi’s not
strengthening his position, but seeing it weakened.

Given the lack of actual inside information, that conclusion
is just as likely an explanation as the alternatives that have been presented. Indeed,
just about any scenario is possible at this point.

So here’s another one.

Sun was topped because he turned out to be ill-suited to the
task he was assigned.

Chongqing isn’t an easy place to govern (ask
Bo Xilai—just
not the BBC about Bo Xilai) at any time, and Sun was being asked to go in
and straighten up the municipality (not just any city) after his predecessor
had taken it in the wrong direction.

Party media hadn’t been shy about highlighting
various shortcomings in Chongqing for some months now. (Praise, when it did
appear, was faint, and tended to focus on
minor projects.) When leading Party media calls attention to problems in a
given location, it’s a sign that there’s a consensus in the leadership here
that governance isn’t proceeding the way Beijing wants it to.

Fixing Chongqing was Sun’s remit, and he appears to have failed
at it.

That may not be sexy or headline-grabbing or fit into The
Establishment Narrative of leaders who spend all their time looking to take
down others simply because they want more power. But given what Party media has
indicated, it makes more sense than the notion that it's just Xi being Xi, when that cannot be.

Still, it's a scenario, a hypothesis--and is here labeled as such.

Where the removal of Sun Zhengcai leaves Xi Jinping and his comrades isn’t
clear. More indicators may appear—actual pieces of evidence--in the coming days. Until then, anything
else is just dirt.