Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Iraqi-Syrian Civil War Primer

The first and most important thing to
understand about the ongoing civil war in Syria and Iraq is that it
is not two wars in two nations. It is one war between two religious
groups. From Tehran to Beirut there is an ongoing war between the
Sunni and Shia Muslims -a war which dates back to the very founding
of Islam. It is not a fight that will be solved by western military
intervention.

The current conflict arose when
peaceful demonstrations against the Assad regime in Syria were met
with brutal suppression by government forces. As the bloodshed of
the mostly Sunni protestors grew unbearable, Sunni troops, units, and
leaders of the Syrian Army defected and formed the Free Syrian Army.
Early success led them to capture a number of Army and Air Force
bases which supplied them with weaponry to fight effectively against
the government forces.

Who is ISIL?

ISIL stands for Islamic State in Iraq
and the Levant. The actual acronym name of the group in Arabic is
DA'SH. You will see it
rendered inaccurately in western media as ISIS Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria. The “SH” sound actually represents “Sham” -a
reference to Greater Syria, which extends from southern Turkey to the
Sinai. Their territorial ambitions are much larger than the
inaccurate western name implies. The map below designates the areas
covered by “Iraq and Sham”. This is the area that they envision
as the nucleus for the re-establishment of the caliphate.

This
group is a splinter of Al-Qaeida, originally being Al-Qaeida in Iraq.
They fell under the influence of an Iraqi terrorist, Abu Bakr
AlBaghdadi (real name Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarri), who
was a protege of Osama bin Laden. After the death of bin Laden, he
has refused to recognize the authority of the new Al-Qaeida
leadership and has taken his own initiative in Iraq and Syria. The
ISIL fighters are from all over the Muslim world. Many of them have
engaged in the jihadi wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen.
ISIL was initially welcomed by Syrian rebels in their fight against
the Assad regime. Much of the original training was done in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and (ironically) Iran. They have fought in so
many theatres with such a wide range of equipment that they are
familiar with almost anything they find on the battlefield.

After
ISIL entered Syria, there was an initial power struggle between
Jabhat Al Nusra and ISIL. Jabhat Al Nusra was the original AlQaeida
group in Syria. ISIL tried to exert authority over them and bring
them into ISIL but the leadership refused and AlQaeida ruled that
they should fight alongside one another in cooperation. ISIL refused
this ruling and began taking control of areas of Syria and
independently governing them. They have captured an oil producing
region of Syria, and the revenues from black market sales fund their
continuing operations.

ISIL
government has imposed a very harsh Sharia law upon the populations.
Women are warned to stay at home. Hands will be chopped off from
thieves. Any unIslamic business is forbidden. Extreme punishments
including execution by sword are visited on any who oppose the ISIL
government. Now large segments of Syria and Iraq are under these
harsh laws.

The
ISIL are so savage, and the populations under their control have
cried out so loudly, that the other rebel factions have turned on
them to expel them from Syria. You have to be ruthlessly savage to
be kicked out of AlQaeida for being too extreme. Currently ISIL and
the Assad regime do not fight one another. Both of them fight the
rebels, who are caught between the government and even more extreme
Islamists.

What
is the Shia-Sunni war?

The
Sunni Shia war dates back to the power struggle between the fourth
caliph (leader of “all” Muslims), Ali (cousin of Mohammad), and
the followers of a powerful Syrian leader named Muawiyah.
Ali was ultimately assassinated by one of his former followers
who belonged to the Kharijites, a group who broke away because Ali was not strong enough in asserting his
authority as Caliph. Muawiyah became the fifth Caliph and the
followers of Ali (thereafter called the Shia) refused to recognize
him. The war ended in a bloody battle (Karbala) where Ali's son was
killed and the Caliphate passed firmly into the hands of those called
Sunni. This battle is remembered each year in their highest holiday
of mourning by the Shia, who have not forgotten the killing of their
leaders even after 1400 years.

This is key -the current Sunni-Shia war
is being fought in these regions of Syria and Iraq just as it was
1400 years ago. The Caliphate passed back and forth from Sunni to
Shia hands over the centuries, but the struggle to control Islam has
not lessened. In modern times, Shia live mostly in Iraq and Iran,
with smaller groups scattered in places like southern Lebanon and
Syria (The Alawites).

Who are the parties other than ISIL?

Iran (Shia) is the largest factor in
the current war. When the (Sunni) rebellion in Syria began to
threaten the Assad regime (Alawite Shia) Iran stepped in to support
the Assad regime. In addition to sending their own militants (Shia)
to fight in Syria, the Iranians also hired unemployed Iraqis (Shia)
as fighters to defend the Syrian government. More importantly, Iran
mobilized the Hezbollah (Shia) forces in Lebanon to move into Syria
and fight on the side of the government.

As the rebels were overwhelmed by the
Shia groups, surrounding Sunni countries sent fighters to help the
rebels. AlQaeida in Iraq (Sunni) sent Islamist fighters to start the Jabhat
AlNusra, with some funding from Qatar. Saudi and Kuwaiti (all Sunni) money
funded the Free Syrian Army. The US (supporting both Sunni and Shia) has committed itself to fund and
support the Free Syrian Army.

The Syrian Kurds have taken control of
the northeastern region of Syria. They have avoided any clashes with
government forces, claiming instead to be subject to the regime.
Jabhat AlNusra had frequent clashes with the Kurds in the second
year. Currently the Kurds are avoiding the conflict.

Update: The Kurds entered the conflict i the summer of 2014 after being attacked by ISIL and losing territory to them. With US air support the Kurds have made significant advances against ISIL.

Who is fighting whom? (Shia vs.
Sunni)

In both Syria and Iraq the fight is a
religious one. In Syria the (Shia Alawite) Assad regime has the
weakened Syrian Army, and a powerful Air Force that is in the hands
of Alawite officers and crews. They are joined by Iranian, Iraqi,
and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, all of whom are Shia.

The rebels are fragmented groups. The
Free Syrian Army is Sunni, and relatively moderate, though there are
strong Islamist tendencies. There is a collection of smaller Sunni
militias allied with the FSA. Jabhat AlNusra is a group of Salafist
Sunni fighters from around the Muslim world that was sent to Syria by
AlQaeida. These groups form a liberation front together. When ISIL
first entered Syria, they were allied with this group.

The FSA/rebel groups are now fighting
ISIL, whom they consider too extreme. ISIL is not currently fighting
the Assad regime. The Kurds are currently not fighting any group.
The Assad regime and Shia allies are fighting the FSA/rebel groups.

What about Iraq?

The same ISIL group that sent Jabhat
Nusra and ISIL into Syria are leading the fight against the Iraqi
government. They number only a few thousand, but like the Pied
Piper, they are collecting other anti-government groups on their
march toward Baghdad. These groups are not loyal to ISIL, but will
fight beside them against the government.

The Kurds have used this opportunity to
move in to protect Kirkuk, which they consider their historic
Capital. They will not leave Kirkuk without a fight, so the
government may engage them at some point. The Kurdish Peshmerga may
be the best soldiers in Iraq at this point.

The Shia Iraqi government has called
home Shia troops from Syria. They are mobilizing Shia militias to
protect Baghdad. Iran is sending troops to defend the Shia holy
sites in Iraq.

Can ISIL take Baghdad?

That is possible, but not probable. We
have not seen the Iraqi Army fight yet, so there is no sure answer.
The Shia are very strong in that region. So far, ISIL has been in
“friendly territory.” There is also the likelihood that the
Iraqi Air Force would be supplemented by air strikes from the US
carrier group moving into the region. A siege of Baghdad is likely
at this point, with some Sunni neighborhoods going to the rebels and
the government holding important areas. Beirut was divided by
sectarian violence for over a decade (and really still is today), and
fighting in Damascus, though not heavy, has followed the same
pattern.

What does this mean for the US?

If the US intervenes in Iraq, it will
mean the commitment of Air and Special (ground) forces to strengthen
the Iraqi government. We will be allies of Iran in this fight. We
will be aiding a government that is allied with Iran, Hezbollah, and
the Assad regime. We will be on the Shia side of the fight.

In Syria, the US is already committed
to supporting the other side of this same fight. We will be
supporting the FSA against the government, Iranian, Lebanese, and
Iraqi Shia foes. We will be on the Sunni side of the fight.

Imagine if you will, an Iraqi Shia
militia that has enjoyed US support, training, and air support. They
cross the border into Syria and now engage a Sunni FSA unit that has
enjoyed US support, weapons, and training. We are now on both sides
of the same fight.

This is a Sunni-Shia religious war.
This war is over 1400 years old, and is being fought by the same
sides and in the same region that it was 1400 years ago. The party
of Caliph Ali (Shia) is opposing the caliphate of the Sunni on the
same battlefields where they fought so long ago.

What about Lebanon?

For now Lebanon is safe. The
government has taken precautionary steps of rounding up and arresting
suspected ISIL sympathizers. We are fairly distant from the current
events. The ISIL is the group who set off the series of car bombs in
Lebanon earlier this year, so there is a possibility of renewed
violence. If Baghdad should fall, which is unlikely, then the
situation becomes much more grave.

Update: A small ISIL force moved into the Arsal region of Lebanon in the summer of 2014 in a surprise incursion but was repelled by the Lebanese Army. They are currently surrounded and living in caves in the border region, where they still hold perhaps 2 dozen soldiers and policeman captured in their surprise attack.

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