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One of the main questions surrounding the Syrian uprising at the beginning of 2012 was if and when an economic collapse would occur. As the year draws to a close, the question has instead become whether one can still talk of “a” Syrian economy as such.

While there is a general consensus that the uprising gripping Syria since March 2011 is part of the broader regional movement for better governance and more freedoms, there has been little debate as to the extent to which the economic and social conditions prevailing in the country contributed to the uprising. The question of whether Syrians revolted because of their thirst for freedom, justice and dignity or whether they did so because of their poor economic and social conditions remains, however, important if one wants to understand the reasons that led to the uprising and produce viable economic reconstruction plans.

The editor-in-chief of The Syria Report, Jihad Yazigi, recently spoke at a conference organised in London by the London School of Economics, "Inside Syria: 18 Months On," of the economic background and implications of the Syrian uprising.

Price levels in Syria vary enormously depending on where one lives, on the intensity of the violence in that area, on the ease of distributing and transporting goods there or on its political or strategic importance for the central government. Thus while inflation officially stood at around 36 percent in June, this should be read only as a broad indicator rather than a reflection of the actual levels of inflation across the country.

It took almost a full year before Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city by population, became an active part of the popular uprising that began engulfing the country in March 2011; but when it did, events very quickly took a violent turn. This summer has seen thousands killed in armed clashes and bombings, more than 200,000 inhabitants are estimated to have fled the city and several districts are being levelled under daily bombardment. ‘Normal life’ is at an almost total standstill throughout the metropolis.

Although now is apparently the time for destruction in Syria, hopefully, the time for reconstruction is not far off. While it is difficult to estimate the actual cost of the damage inflicted to the country’s physical infrastructure by more than 16 months of a popul ar uprising — most of the destruction having actually occurred after the summer of 2011 — the Syrian National Council (SNC), which is considered by Western nations as their main interlocutor in the opposition, recently estimated that Syria would need some $12 billion in immediate financial support in the first six months after a potential fall of the regime.

Syria and the UN reached an agreement today on the terms and framework for UN observers to monitor the country's troubled ceasefire. An advance group of six such observers has been on the ground in Syria since early this week, however, their mission and overall ability to have an impact on the crisis is already in question. The preliminary agreement signed today is intended to protect Syrian sovereignty whilst paving the way for more observers to enter into and operate across the country. The ceasefire, however, is heavily in question with reports of violence rising daily. This in turn will likely throw the UN monitoring mission and its expansion in jeopardy. According to a report from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights issued on Monday, 11,117 people have been killed over the course of the last 13 months.

Today marked the start of Syria's country-wide ceasefire brokered by UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy, Kofi Annan. The ceasefire began at 6am this morning with most reports indicating that it appears to be tentatively holding. The lead-up to the ceasefire has been violent and tense, with numerous reports charging that some 1000 were killed in violence across the country over the course of the last week. The violence crossed a critical threshold on April 9, when shots were fired from Syria into neighboring Turkey resulting in several casualties. The same day, a similar cross-border shooting into Lebanon left a Lebanese reporter dead. The numbers of Syrian refugees continue to swell in Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, fueling fears that the crisis is spreading deeper into the region. To that end, Turkish officials, outraged by the cross-border shootings, and concerned about the growing ranks of Syrian refugees in Turkey, are reportedly considering invoking NATO's Article 5 to protect the Turkish border with Syria. At this point, observance of the ceasefire by all sides will be key not only to mitigating the country's internal turmoil, but also intensifying threats to regional security.

Prospects for Syria Truce Narrow as Violence Spikes Before April 10 Deadline for Military Withdrawal

Representatives from over 60 countries met for the 'Friends of Syria' conference in Istanbul on April 1 and agreed to channel millions of dollars into Syria in support of the country's opposition. At the same time and in a highly controversial move, conference attendees proclaimed the Syrian National Council "a legitimate representative of all Syrians". On Monday, UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan announced that the Syrian government had officially agreed to a complete military withdrawal from the country's urban areas by April 10. The following day, however, violent military incursions and security crackdowns continued in full force across the country - driving foreign officials to call Damascus's commitment to the peace plan into question. At the same time, a surge of international reportage suggests that Syrian revolutionaries are increasingly disillusioned by the relative inaction of the international community and the ongoing security crackdowns, with calls from among their ranks for weaponry increasing daily. The death toll from the last ten days of violence has already surpassed 700.