CNSW Market Update – 11/05/2018

Yet another week has passed with minimal rainfall received in key NSW cropping areas. But lack of rainfall isn’t stopping growers making headway on their 2018 seeding programs. As more time passes without a decent rain event, we are seeing more growers make the decision to dry sow in the hope we get some type of break heading to the end of May.

International futures eased off their recent highs towards the end of last week, but we didn’t see too much downside creep into prices here at home as buyers and traders alike are still finding it very hard to source additional grain commitments from growers. Despite the recent retreat in international markets, all cereals ended the week up anywhere between $5-10/MT.

Interestingly, barely trade values bucked recent trends and once again surpassed feed wheat values anywhere between $2-4/MT. Which at the end of the day has been happening over the last month in the farm to farm trade market, but it now appears the big end of town has adjusted pricing to try and get a piece of the action.

As previously speculated, it is becoming more evident there has been a huge swing towards barley sowing intentions. And with values where they are at present it makes sense, given barley can endure tougher conditions in comparison to some varieties of wheat.

We are now mid-way through May, and normally at this time of year we would have seen a big percentage of canola already in the ground. But given the depleted nature of much of the Central West’s moisture profiles canola sowing progress is well back, with only a small percentage of growers having sufficient moisture to proceed.

There has been some dry sown canola go in around the region in the hope we will get some type of rain in the next week or so. But dry sowing canola is viewed as a riskier alternative to wheats and barleys, and as such much more preference has been placed on getting some cereal acres in.

The mid-range forecast doesn’t appear to have anything too exciting predicted for Central NSW, but here’s hoping we manage to get under some storms in the next change to give us some type of improvement going forward.