Friday, 9 December 2016

Being a class 3 race this ought to be a good one but being at this newly laid all-weather track its hard still to compare it with Wolverhampton which has the same surface, both Memories Galore and Showdaisy are front running types and have got exactly the same times at these weights and it was a good ratio in yards per second but they have also both only recorded relatively slow times on this surface at Wolverhampton, where using those times joint 2nd best is Dynamo Walt the bottom weight along with the top weighted Bosham but top rated is MAPPIN TIME 18/1 who isn't very consistent but can spring back to winning ways without warning, the other front-runner Outrage hasn't run on this surface before so could be a bit of a hidden danger, I will as usual go with a small each way bet on the top rated and hope it has one of its going days. 4:15 Newcastle - A strange sort of race but I guess to be expected over the minimum trip and class 6, of the 14 runners 6 have led before and this fast early pace ought to set the race up for my selection, Arctic Lynx is one of those possible pace setters and from a time recorded last year at Wolverhampton its the done the fastest time of any of these from that course but it hasn't been near that level this year but has only had 3 runs this year and been unfancied at big prices in all of them and it would need to suddenly improve many pounds to win this race but it's not impossible as it proved in 2015, just using times at this course and distance I have Novabridge, another possible pace setter, and Lady Bacchus as my joint 2nd top rated but top rated is A J COOK 12/1 who was staying on last time out over here in a fast run race and it looks as though this one might prefer slightly further so with a fast pace and the leaders tiring nearing the finish this could see it returning to the winners enclosure or at least at the price make the frame and the price is big enough to allow me to go with an each-way wager. 5:45 Wolverhampton - A nice looking class 3 affair with 13 runners with a couple of them that have led before but neither are in my top 4 although the 3-year-old Illegally Blonde could still be able to improve and stall 1 is ideal for a front-running type, Sophisticated heir did a fast time for its class but this might be beyond its capabilities and stall 12 isn't going to help, Highland Acclaim is 3rd top rated but hasn't won on the all-weather from 7 attempts which put me off this one, in 2nd spot is BOOMERANG BOB 6/1 who usually races near the front, top rated is Steelriver who hasn't won for quite a while now but is capable of running a good time but doesn't seem to know how to win nowdays and even at its very best it's only top by 2 lb's and I just can't back it to win this race but it does look capable of making the frame. 6:15 Wolverhampton (Division 1) - Class 6 affair with 13 runners with just 2 that have been known to lead before but neither of them are in the top 6, Bonjour Steve is 4th top but stall 13 isn't going to help its cause, Smart Dj is 3rd top rated on its times from this year but did do a time in 2015 that would put it on the top of the pile but may struggle to get a clear run from stall 8, City Of Angkor Wat is my 2nd top rated and usually races prominently, my top rated is AMBITIOUS BOY 33/1 another that likes to be near the front without quite leading and from stall 1 must have every chance of getting a good position from which to attack late on but the stable does have the most likely front runner in the race with Swendab in stall 7 and this might be the one the stable is trying to win with and it's a dangerous horse if allowed to set a slower early pace and control the race from the front before kicking on off the bend and then try to hold on to the lead to the line, so I will be having an each way bet on both, Ambitious Boy, the top rated and having a covering bet on, SWENDAB 9/1, the stablemate just in case it's allowed to lead all the way at its own pace. 6:45 Wolverhampton - (Division 2) For a class 6 race this is a very tight competitive handicap but it's not guaranteed to be run at a fast pace, Armelle is a front running type but has been way out of form for quite some time now and not won since 2014, Generalyse, stall 2 and Louis Vee stall 3 can lead if nothing else wants to and these 2 are co-2nd top top rated so if either of this pair gets control of the rails then they could prove hard to catch, GENRALYSE 16/1 is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice, who has won for this stable before, which moves it into a clear 2nd top rated and therefore be very dangerous if getting to the front but I do have KAABER 15/2 rated higher and this one won last time out over this course and distance when recording its best time, this one is being ridden by a 5lb claimer who has won on the horse before the biggest negative is it being drawn out in stall 11 but if getting a clear run it could follow up with another win here but just in case it doesn't get the breaks I'll also back the horse I think may try to lead all the way with an each way bet.

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