Easy To Use Patents Search & Patent Lawyer Directory

At Patents you can conduct a Patent Search, File a Patent Application, find a Patent Attorney, or search available technology through our Patent Exchange. Patents are available using simple keyword or date criteria. If you are looking to hire a patent attorney, you've come to the right place. Protect your idea and hire a patent lawyer.

POPULATION ESTIMATION APPARATUS, PROGRAM AND POPULATION ESTIMATION METHOD

Abstract

It is difficult to distinguish facility types. It is difficult to
estimate a fluctuating population from the number of communication
terminals. A log information obtaining unit which obtains log information
in which positional information of a wireless terminal and clock time
information at which the positional information is obtained are
associated, a population fluctuation pattern determination unit which
determines a population fluctuation pattern based on the log information,
a type determination unit which determines a type of a facility based on
the population fluctuation pattern determined by the population
fluctuation pattern determination unit, with reference to basic pattern
information indicating a population fluctuation pattern for each facility
type, and an estimated value deriving unit which extracts calculation
basic information corresponding to the facility type determined by the
type determination unit to derive an estimated value of the population
movement of the facility are comprised.

1. A population estimation apparatus comprising: a log information
obtaining unit which obtains log information in which one or more pieces
of positional information and clock time information are associated, the
one or more pieces of positional information indicating positions of one
or more wireless terminals, respectively, and the clock time information
indicating clock times at which the one or more pieces of positional
information are obtained, respectively; a fluctuation pattern
determination unit which determines, based on the log information, a
population fluctuation pattern indicating temporal population
fluctuations of a particular geographic range; a type determination unit
which determines a type of a facility in the particular geographic range,
with reference to basic pattern information in which a facility type and
the population fluctuation pattern indicating temporal population
fluctuations of the facility are associated, and based on the population
fluctuation pattern determined by the fluctuation pattern determination
unit; and an estimated value deriving unit which determines calculation
basic information corresponding to the facility type determined by the
type determination unit, with reference to calculation basic information
for each facility type used for population movement estimation, to derive
an estimated value of the population movement of the facility in the
particular geographic range.

2. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further
comprising: a visitor count estimation unit which estimates, based on the
log information, the number of visitors of the facility in the particular
geographic range in a predetermined time period; and a basic information
generation unit which generates the calculation basic information based
on the number of visitors determined by the visitor count estimation
unit.

3. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further
comprising a basic pattern generation unit which generates the basic
pattern information based on the log information.

4. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the
calculation basic information includes: first calculation basic
information for each type of a steadily fluctuating facility, used for
population movement estimation of the steadily fluctuating facility, the
steadily fluctuating facility being a facility routinely visited by
particular persons; and second calculation basic information for each
type of a variably fluctuating facility, used for population movement
estimation of the variably fluctuating facility, the variably fluctuating
facility being a facility uncertainly visited by unidentified persons.

5. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the
second calculation basic information includes a calculation expression
defined by correlation between the number of visitors of the variably
fluctuating facility and the number of cars parked in a parking lot of
the variably fluctuating facility.

6. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the
second calculation basic information includes a calculation expression
defined by correlation between the number of visitors of the variably
fluctuating facility and a capacity-related condition of the variably
fluctuating facility.

7. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the
estimated value deriving unit derives an estimated value of the
population movement of the facility in the particular geographic range in
a first time segment, extracts basic pattern information indicating a
population fluctuation in each second time segment from among a plurality
of pieces of basic pattern information corresponding to the facility type
determined by the type determination unit, and derives an estimated value
of the population movement of the facility in the particular geographic
range in each second time segment, based on the extracted basic pattern
information and the estimated value of the population movement in the
first time segment.

8. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 7, wherein the
calculation basic information further includes stay time information
indicating a stay time per day of visitors for each facility type, and
the estimated value deriving unit derives a fluctuating population
potential which is an index value of a potential fluctuating population,
based on the estimated value of the population movement of the facility
in the particular geographic range in each second time segment and the
stay time information.

9. The population estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the
estimated value deriving unit counts up the population movement of each
facility in the particular geographic range to derive the estimated value
of the population movement of a region which includes a plurality of
particular geographic ranges.

10. A non-transitory computer-readable recording medium which records a
program, wherein the program causes a computer to function as the
population estimation apparatus according to claim 1.

11. A population estimation method comprising: a log information
obtaining step of obtaining log information in which one or more pieces
of positional information and clock time information are associated, the
one or more pieces of positional information indicating positions of one
or more wireless terminals, respectively, and the clock time information
indicating clock times at which the one or more pieces of positional
information are obtained, respectively; a fluctuation pattern determining
step of determining, based on the log information, a population
fluctuation pattern indicating temporal population fluctuations of a
particular geographic range; a type determining step of determining a
type of a facility in the particular geographic range, with reference to
basic pattern information in which a facility type and the population
fluctuation pattern indicating temporal population fluctuations of the
facility are associated, and based on the population fluctuation pattern
determined by the fluctuation pattern determining step; and an estimated
value deriving step of determining calculation basic information
corresponding to the facility type determined in the type determining
step, with reference to calculation basic information for each facility
type used for population movement estimation, to derive an estimated
value of the population movement of the facility in the particular
geographic range.

Description

[0001] The contents of the following PCT patent application are
incorporated herein by reference:

[0002] NO. PCT/JP2014/078415 filed on Oct. 24, 2014.

BACKGROUND

[0003] 1. Technical Field

[0004] The present invention relates to a population estimation apparatus,
a program and a population estimation method.

[0005] 2. Related Art

[0006] It is known to estimate a fluctuating population based on a survey
result value for each facility type (refer to Patent Document 1). Also,
it is known to identify a fluctuating population by using a communication
terminal (refer to Patent Documents 2 to 7).

[0014] However, according to the prior art, there are problems such as a
difficulty in distinguish facility types and a difficulty in fluctuating
population estimation from the number of communication terminals.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0015] FIG. 1 schematically illustrates one example of a population
estimation system 100.

[0016] FIG. 2 schematically illustrates one example of a population
estimation server 130.

[0025] Hereinafter, one aspect of the present invention is described
through the embodiments of the invention. However, the following
embodiments are not to limit the claimed inventions. Also, all of
combinations of features described in the embodiments are not necessarily
required for a means for solving problems of the invention. Note that in
the drawings, the same reference numerals may be applied to the same or
similar portions and the redundant descriptions may be omitted.

[0026] FIG. 1 schematically illustrates one example of a population
estimation system 100. The population estimation system 100 estimates a
population or a population movement of an arbitrary area. In the present
embodiment, the population estimation system 100 estimates a population
or a population movement by using positional information of one or more
communication terminals 110. The arbitrary area just needs to be a
division having a predetermined geographic range and may be illustrated
as, for example, a facility, an administrative division (which may be
referred to as an administrative segment, an administrative district and
the like), a division subject to a national census, a division which is
an area subdivided by an unit region having a predetermined size and
shape (which may be referred to as an area mesh and the like).

[0027] The facility is not particularly limited as long as it is a
building or a site visited by persons. The facility is classified into,
for example, a steadily fluctuating facility which is a facility mainly
visited by specified persons constantly and a variably fluctuating
facility which is a facility mainly visited by unspecified persons
inconstantly. As the steadily fluctuating facility, for example, a house,
an office, a school, a factory, a farm, a wholesale market, and a
warehouse may be illustrated. The house may be a single-family house or
may be a housing complex. As the variably fluctuating facility, for
example, a retailer, a department store, a theater, a concert hall, a
stadium, an amusement park, a zoo, a museum, a theme park, a leisure
facility, a bathing beach, a ski site, a camp site, a tourist site, a
resort, a park, a public facility, a shrine, and a temple may be
illustrated. As the public facility, for example, a station, an airport,
a government office and an administrative office may be illustrated.

[0028] In the present embodiment, the population estimation system 100
includes a communication terminal 110, an information collection server
120, and a population estimation server 130. The communication terminal
110 includes a positional information obtaining unit 112, a log
information generation unit 114, and a communication control unit 116.
Also, the information collection server 120 includes a log information
collection unit 122, a log information storage unit 124, and a
communication control unit 126. Each of the population estimation system
100 and the population estimation server 130 may be one example of the
population estimation apparatus. The communication terminal 110 may be
one example of one or more wireless terminals. Each of the information
collection server 120 and the log information collection unit 122 may be
one example of the log information obtaining unit.

[0029] Each of the communication terminal 110, the information collection
server 120 and the population estimation server 130 may transmit and
receive information with one another via the communication network 10.
The communication network 10 may be a transmission path for wired
communication, may be a transmission path for wireless communication, or
may be a combination of a transmission path for wireless communication
and a transmission path for wired communication. The communication
network 10 may be a mobile communication network such as a cellular phone
network, a wireless packet communication network, the Internet and a
dedicated line, or a combination thereof.

[0030] The communication terminal 110 includes a communication function.
The communication terminal 110 may include a wireless communication
function. The communication terminal 110 may also correspond to a
plurality of communication systems. For example, the communication
terminal 110 corresponds to both of communication systems of a mobile
communication system such as 3G, LTE, and 4G systems, and a wireless
communication system such as WiFi (registered trademark) and WiMAX
(registered trademark). The communication terminal 110 just needs to be
an apparatus which can transmit and receive information with at least one
of the information collection server 120 and the population estimation
server 130, and may be, for example, a personal computer, a cellular
phone or a smart phone, a mobile terminal (which may be illustrated as a
PDA, a tablet, a notebook computer or a laptop computer and the like),
and a wireless terminal including Web browser software introduced
therein.

[0031] The communication terminal 110 may be achieved by activating
software or a program that defines operations of each unit of the
communication terminal 110 in an information processing apparatus having
a general configuration. The information processing apparatuses used as
the communication terminal 110 may include a data processing apparatus
having a processor such as a CPU, an ROM, an RAM, a communication
interface and the like; an input apparatus such as a keyboard, a touch
panel, or a microphone, a GPS information obtaining apparatus, an
acceleration sensor, a gyro sensor; an output apparatus such as a display
apparatus, a speaker and a vibration apparatus; and a storage apparatus
such as a memory and an HDD. The data processing apparatus or the storage
apparatus may store the software or the program described above. The
software or the program described above causes, by being executed by a
processor, the information processing apparatus described above to
execute operations defined by the software or the program.

[0032] The positional information obtaining unit 112 obtains positional
information indicating a position of the communication terminal 110. The
positional information may be information indicating latitude and
longitude, and may further include information indicating altitude. The
positional information may be information indicating an address. The
positional information obtaining unit 112 may obtain the positional
information of the communication terminal 110 based on a GPS signal
received from a GPS satellite. Based on electric field intensities of
radio waves and the like received from one or more base stations or
access points of the communication network 10, the positional information
of the communication terminal 110 may be obtained. Based on electric
field intensities of radio waves and the like from the communication
terminal 110 at one or more base stations or access points of the
communication network 10, the positional information of the communication
terminal 110 may be obtained.

[0033] The positional information obtaining unit 112 may also obtain
information about accuracy of the positional information (which may be
referred to as positioning accuracy information). The accuracy of the
positional information is represented by, for example, using a CEP
(Circular Error Probability). If a probability that a GPS receiver is
positioned within a particular circle is 50%, the CEP is represented as a
radius of the circle. If the GPS receiver is positioned at a location
which allows it to receive GPS signals easily (which may be illustrated
as outdoors, an indoor window side and the like), the CEP becomes a small
value. On the one hand, if the GPS receiver is positioned at a location
which does not allow it to receive GPS signals easily, the CEP becomes a
large value.

[0034] The positional information obtaining unit 112 may obtain the
positional information in a predetermined time or may also obtain the
positional information at a predetermined time interval. The positional
information obtaining unit 112 may also obtain the positional information
if a user executes a predetermined operation by using the communication
terminal 110. As the predetermined operation, for example, an
input/selection operation of information, a power ON/OFF operation, and a
start/end operation of calling may be illustrated. The positional
information obtaining unit 112 may also obtain the positional information
in the background.

[0035] The log information generation unit 114 associates each of one or
more pieces of positional information obtained by the positional
information obtaining unit 112 with clock time information indicating a
clock time at which the positional information is obtained to generate
one or more pieces of log information. The log information generation
unit 114 may also associate terminal identification information for
identifying each of one or more communication terminals 110, the
positional information, and the clock time information with one another
to generate the log information. The log information generation unit 114
may also associate the positional information, the positioning accuracy
information, and the clock time information with one another to generate
the log information. The log information generation unit 114 may also
associate the terminal identification information, the positional
information, the positioning accuracy information, and the clock time
information with one another to generate the log information. In the
present embodiment, the log information generation unit 114 transmits the
generated log information to the information collection server 120.

[0036] The terminal identification information is not particularly limited
as long as it is information which allows for identification of one or
more communication terminals 110, respectively. In one embodiment,
following items are used as the terminal identification information such
as: for example, an MAC address of the communication terminal 110; a BD
address (which may be referred to as a BD_ADDR and the like) for
identifying a device which supports Bluetooth (registered trademark); an
ID specific for a communication terminal such as an address for
identifying a device which supports ZigBee (registered trademark); an ID
specific for a communication terminal recorded in each type of SIM
(Subscriber Identity Module) cards; and an ID specific for a subscriber
of a communication terminal assigned to the subscriber (which may be
referred to as a subscriber-specific ID, and also, which may be referred
to as a terminal manufacturing number, a user ID, an i mode (registered
trademark) ID, a subscriber ID, an EZ number, a terminal serial number
and the like, depending on a communication carrier).

[0037] In another embodiment, as the terminal identification information,
information is used which allows the communication terminal 110 to be
identified uniquely while suppressing identification of a user. This
allows for analysis of the log information considering a temporal
relationship between the log information, without identifying a user. For
example, a randomly selected code string is provided as the terminal
identification information of a particular communication terminal 110.
The code string may be a code string specific for each of one or more
communication terminals 110, or may also be reused among a plurality of
communication terminals 110. The terminal identification information may
be updated each predetermined time period, may be updated at a
predetermined clock time, or may be updated at an arbitrary timing in
response to an instruction from a user and the like.

[0038] The communication control unit 116 controls a communication among
the communication terminal 110, the communication network 10, and at
least one of the information collection server 120 and the population
estimation server 130. The communication control unit 116 may be a
communication interface. The communication control unit 116 may
correspond to a plurality of communication systems.

[0039] The information collection server 120 collects each type of
information such as the log information. The log information collection
unit 122 collects the log information. In one embodiment, the log
information collection unit 122 receives one or more pieces of log
information from each of one or more communication terminals 110. In
another embodiment, the log information collection unit 122 receives one
or more pieces of log information from each of one or more base stations
or access points of the communication network 10.

[0040] The log information storage unit 124 stores the log information
collected by the log information collection unit 122. The log information
storage unit 124 may also transmit the log information to the population
estimation server 130, in response to a request from the population
estimation server 130.

[0041] The communication control unit 126 controls a communication among
the information collection server 120, the communication network 10, and
at least one of the communication terminal 110 and the population
estimation server 130. The communication control unit 126 may be a
communication interface. The communication control unit 126 may
correspond to a plurality of communication systems.

[0042] The population estimation server 130 estimates a population or a
population movement of an arbitrary area. In the present embodiment, the
population estimation server 130 estimates a population or a population
movement of an arbitrary area by using the log information collected by
the information collection server 120.

[0043] In one embodiment, the population estimation server 130 divides an
area subject to population or population movement estimation into one or
more geographic ranges (which may be referred to as subareas). The
population estimation server 130 determines population fluctuation
patterns indicating temporal population fluctuations of each of one or
more subareas, respectively, by using the log information collected by
the information collection server 120. The population estimation server
130 determines each facility type in each of one or more subareas based
on the determined population fluctuation pattern and basic pattern
information indicating a population fluctuation pattern for each facility
type.

[0044] The population estimation server 130 determines, based on the
determined facility type, calculation basic information applied to each
of one or more subareas among predetermined calculation basic information
for each facility type. The calculation basic information is a
calculation expression, for example, for estimating a population or a
population movement of the facility, based on specifications of the
facility. The population estimation server 130 estimates the population
or the population movement of each facility in one or more subareas,
based on the determined calculation basic information and specifications
of each facility in one or more subareas. The population estimation
server 130 can estimate the population or the population movement of an
arbitrary area, by counting up the population or the population movement
of each facility in one or more subareas to.

[0045] Each of the information collection server 120 and the population
estimation server 130 may be achieved, in an information processing
apparatus of a general configuration, by activating software or a program
which defines operations of each unit of each of the information
collection server 120 and the population estimation server 130. The
information processing apparatuses used as the information collection
server 120 and the population estimation server 130 may include a data
processing apparatus having a processor such as a CPU, an ROM, an RAM, a
communication interface and the like; an input apparatus such as a
keyboard, a touch panel, or a microphone; an output apparatus such as a
display apparatus or a speaker, and a storage apparatus such as a memory
or an HDD. The data processing apparatus or the storage apparatus may
store the software or the program described above. The software or the
program described above causes, by being executed by a processor, the
information processing apparatus described above to execute operations
defined by the software or the program.

[0046] Each of the information collection server 120 and the population
estimation server 130 may be a virtual server or a cloud system. Each of
the information collection server 120 and the population estimation
server 130 may be achieved by a single server, or may be achieved by a
plurality of servers. Also, the information collection server 120 and the
population estimation server 130 may be achieved on the same physical
server, or the information collection server 120 and the population
estimation server 130 may be the same server.

[0047] FIG. 2 schematically illustrates one example of a population
estimation server 130. In the present embodiment, the population
estimation server 130 executes, for example, (i) an interpolation process
of the log information, (ii) a population estimation process of an
arbitrary area, and (iii) a generation process or an update process of
the basic pattern information and the calculation basic information.

[0048] In the present embodiment, the population estimation server 130
includes a log information management unit 212, a fluctuation pattern
determination unit 214, a type determination unit 216, a log information
analysis unit 218, a population estimation unit 222, a storage unit 224,
a communication control unit 226, and an input unit 228. The log
information management unit 212 may be one example of the log information
obtaining unit. The population estimation unit 222 may be one example of
the estimated value deriving unit. The storage unit 224 may be one
example of the basic information storage unit.

[0049] The log information management unit 212 manages the log
information. In the present embodiment, the log information management
unit 212 obtains the log information collected by the information
collection server 120. The log information management unit 212 stores the
obtained log information in the storage unit 224. The log information
management unit 212 may analyze a plurality of pieces of log information
associated with at least one communication terminal 110 to interpolate
the log information. The log information management unit 212 may analyze
the obtained log information to generate or update at least one of the
basic pattern information and the calculation basic information.

[0050] The fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 determines, based on
the log information, a population fluctuation pattern of a particular
geographic range. In the present embodiment, the fluctuation pattern
determination unit 214 first receives from the input unit 228 input
information indicating an area and a time subject to population or
population movement estimation. The fluctuation pattern determination
unit 214 determines one or more geographic ranges for identifying the
area subject to population or population movement estimation. For
example, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 divides the area
subject to population or population movement estimation into one or more
subareas. Each of one or more subareas may be one example of a particular
geographic range. The area subject to population or population movement
estimation may be one example of a region including a plurality of
particular geographic ranges.

[0051] Each of one or more subareas may be determined by information
indicating boundaries between each facility, or may be determined by a
division which is an area subdivided by a unit region having a
predetermined size and shape (which may be referred to as an area mesh
and the like). In one embodiment, each of one or more subareas is
determined by the area mesh included in the subarea. In another
embodiment, each of one or more subareas is determined by the area mesh
in which the subarea is included.

[0052] Next, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 determines,
for each of one or more subareas, a population fluctuation pattern
indicating temporal population fluctuations. The fluctuation pattern
determination unit 214 counts up, based on the log information stored in
the storage unit 224, the number of communication terminals 110 present
in each region in each of one or more subareas in each predetermined time
to determine the population fluctuation pattern of each of one or more
subareas. The fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 may also
normalize a final count of the number of communication terminals 110 in
each predetermined time to determine the population fluctuation pattern.

[0053] The predetermined time may be a predetermined clock time or may be
a predetermined time segment. The predetermined time segment may be at
least one selected from among five minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes, one
hour, three hours, six hours, 12 hours, one day, one week, one month,
three months, six months, one year, weekday, holiday, and each day of the
week, and each time zone. The predetermined time segment may also be the
same as an update cycle of the terminal ID.

[0054] For counting up the number of communication terminals 110 present
in an area in each of one or more subareas in each predetermined time
segment, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 may execute a
noise removal process (which may be referred to as a cleansing process)
in advance. For example, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214
first calculates, based on the log information of each communication
terminal 110 present in the area in the subarea, a stay time of each
communication terminal 110 in the subarea. Next, based on information
about the stay time described above, a frequency distribution of the stay
times of the communication terminals 110 in the subarea is calculated.

[0055] Next, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 calculates,
for example, a mode value of the stay time or a local maximum value of
the frequency distribution curve, based on the calculated frequency
distribution. Then, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214
compares the stay time of each of the communication terminals 110 in the
subarea to the mode value or the local maximum value of the stay time
described above. If an absolute value of a difference between the stay
time of the particular communication terminal 110 and the mode value or
the local maximum value of the stay time described above is larger than a
predetermined value, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214
determines that the particular communication terminal 110 is a noise.

[0056] In one embodiment, if the predetermined time segment is longer than
one day, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214 counts up the
number of communication terminals 110 present in the area in each subarea
to calculate "the number of visitors per day" in each subarea. If the
particular communication terminal 110 is present in the particular
subarea continuously in time order, the fluctuation pattern determination
unit 214 may treat together the log information in the time periods
during which the particular communication terminal 110 is present
continuously in time order to count it for one terminal. The fluctuation
pattern determination unit 214 may also determine the population
fluctuation pattern based on "the number of visitors per day".

[0057] The type determination unit 216 determines the facility type in
each of one or more geographic ranges, with reference to the basic
pattern information indicating the population fluctuation pattern for
each facility type and based on the population fluctuation pattern
determined by the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214. For
example, the type determination unit 216 compares the population
fluctuation pattern of each of one or more geographic ranges to each of
one or more pieces of basic pattern information to extract the basic
pattern information of which a degree of match is larger than a
predetermined reference value, with respect to the population fluctuation
pattern of each of one or more geographic ranges. The type determination
unit 216 determines a facility type associated with the extracted basic
pattern as the facility type in each of one or more geographic ranges.

[0058] The type determination unit 216 may also compare a function
expression which approximates the population fluctuation pattern of each
of one or more geographic ranges to each of one or more pieces of basic
pattern information. The function expression which approximates the
population fluctuation pattern of each of one or more geographic ranges
may be determined by a known algorithm such as the least square method.
For example, the type determination unit 216 compares the function
expression which approximates the population fluctuation pattern of each
of one or more geographic ranges to each function expression which
approximates one or more basic patterns stored in the storage unit 224 to
calculate degrees of match of the both sides, based on, for example,
types of functions and degrees of correlation of factors of each function
included in each function expression.

[0059] The type determination unit 216 may also compare, by a similar
procedure, the function expression which approximates the population
fluctuation pattern of each of one or more geographic ranges to a
combination of a plurality of basic patterns. For example, if the degree
of match between the population fluctuation pattern of the particular
geographic range and a population fluctuation pattern which is a
combination of a basic pattern of a facility A, a basic pattern of a
facility B and a basic pattern of a facility C at percentages of 50%, 30%
and 20%, respectively, is higher than the predetermined value, the type
determination unit 216 determines that the facility A, the facility B and
the facility C are included in the particular geographic range.

[0060] The type determination unit 216 determines the facility type
corresponding to the extracted basic pattern information as a facility
type in a geographic range of a comparison target. If a plurality of
basic patterns are extracted, the type determination unit 216 may also
determine the facility type corresponding to the basic pattern of the
largest degree of match as the facility type in the geographic range of
the comparison target.

[0061] The log information analysis unit 218 analyzes the log information
to generate or update at least one of the basic pattern information and
the calculation basic information. The log information analysis unit 218
may compare an analysis result of the log information about the
particular facility to an actual survey result value of the population or
the population movement of the particular facility to generate or update
at least one of the basic pattern information and the calculation basic
information. This can reduce the actual number of facilities subject to a
survey without decreasing accuracy of the basic pattern information and
the calculation basic information.

[0062] The population estimation unit 222 estimates a population or a
population movement of an arbitrary area. In the present embodiment, the
population estimation unit 222 obtains from the fluctuation pattern
determination unit 214 information about one or more geographic ranges
for identifying an area indicated by the input information. The
population estimation unit 222 derives an estimated value of a population
or population movement of each of one or more geographic ranges. The
population estimation unit 222 counts up the estimated value of the
population or population movement of each of one or more geographic
ranges to derive the estimated value of the population or population
movement of the arbitrary area, for example.

[0063] In the present embodiment, the population estimation unit 222
obtains specification information about specifications of facilities
included in each of one or more geographic ranges. The population
estimation unit 222 may obtain the specification information stored in
the storage unit 224, may obtain the specification information stored in
an external storage apparatus via the communication control unit 226, or
may obtain the specification information input to the input unit 228 by a
user. The population estimation unit 222 may obtain the specification
information depending on the facility type.

[0064] As the specification information of a facility, for example, the
number of rooms, an estimation expression of the number of rooms, an area
ratio of a common space, a total floor area, an area per room, the number
of users per room, a stay time of one user per day, an operation ratio, a
rotation ratio, a correction factor depending on an area, a standard
capacity, a maximum capacity, the number of cars parked in a parking lot,
an area of a parking lot, and the annual number of users or the monthly
number of users for one car parked in a parking lot may be illustrated.
The estimation expression of the number of rooms is a calculation
expression for estimating the number of rooms based on information
included in the specification information. The estimation expression of
the number of rooms is represented, for example, as (total floor
area-area of common space)/(area per room).

[0065] The population estimation unit 222 extracts the calculation basic
information corresponding to the facility type determined by the type
determination unit 216 for each of one or more geographic ranges, for
example, with reference to the storage unit 224. The population
estimation unit 222 derives, based on the specification information of a
facility included in each of one or more geographic ranges and the
extracted calculation basic information, an estimated value of a
population movement of the facility included in each of one or more
geographic ranges.

[0066] In another embodiment, the population estimation unit 222 first
derives an estimated value of a population movement of a facility in each
of one or more geographic ranges in a first time segment. Next, it
extracts, among a plurality of pieces of basic pattern information
corresponding to facility types determined by the type determination unit
216, the basic pattern information indicating a population fluctuation in
each second time segment. Then, it derives, based on the extracted basic
pattern information and the estimated value of the population movement in
the first time segment, an estimated value of the population movement of
the facility in each of one or more geographic ranges in each second time
segment.

[0067] The first time segment may be longer than the second time segment.
For example, the first time segment is one day and the second time
segment is one hour. The first time segment may be one month or one week
and the second time segment may be one day or each day of the week.

[0068] In another embodiment, if the calculation basic information further
includes stay time information indicating a stay time of a visitor per
day for each facility type, the population estimation unit 222 may also
derive a fluctuating population potential which is an index value of a
potential fluctuating population, based on the estimated value of the
population movement in each second time segment and the stay time
information. If the number of visitors per year is surveyed or defined in
a particular facility or an area, the population estimation unit 222 may
derive the fluctuating population potential by proportionally allocating,
depending on the type of the particular facility, the total number of
visitors for individual months and days in consideration of a fluctuation
ratio of the number of visitors for each season, month and day of the
week. The population estimation unit 222 may also derive, depending on
the type of the particular facility described above, the fluctuating
population potential for each time zone, in further consideration of a
stay time per person.

[0069] The storage unit 224 store each type of information used for
information processing in the log information management unit 212, the
fluctuation pattern determination unit 214, the type determination unit
216, the log information analysis unit 218, the population estimation
unit 222 and the like. The storage unit 224 may also store information
generated by information processing in the log information management
unit 212, the fluctuation pattern determination unit 214, the type
determination unit 216, the log information analysis unit 218, the
population estimation unit 222 and the like.

[0070] In the present embodiment, the communication control unit 226
controls a communication among the population estimation server 130, the
communication network 10, and at least one of the communication terminal
110 and the information collection server 120. The communication control
unit 226 may be a communication interface. The communication control unit
226 may correspond to a plurality of communication systems.

[0071] The input unit 228 receives an input from a user. In the present
embodiment, the input unit 228 inputs input information indicating an
area and a time subject to population or population movement estimation.
The time subject to population or population movement estimation may be a
particular clock time or may be a particular time period. As the input
unit 228, for example, a keyboard, a pointing device, a touch panel, and
a microphone may be illustrated.

[0073] The log information obtaining unit 312 obtains the log information
collected by the information collection server 120. The log information
obtaining unit 312 stores the obtained log information in the storage
unit 224. Note that the log information obtaining unit 312 may also
obtain the log information from the communication terminal 110, and a
base station or an access point of the communication network 10.

[0074] The log information interpolation unit 314 generates information
for interpolating the log information. For example, the log information
interpolation unit 314 first classifies a plurality of pieces of log
information obtained from the information collection server 120 for each
communication terminal 110. Also, the log information interpolation unit
314 sorts a plurality of pieces of log information classified for each
communication terminal 110, based on the clock time information in the
log information. Next, for each of two paired pieces of log information
which are continuous in time order, the log information interpolation
unit 314 compares the clock time information in the two pieces of log
information. If an interval between clock times indicated by the clock
time information of two pieces of log information is larger than a
predetermined value, the log information interpolation unit 314 generates
information for interpolating the two pieces of log information.

[0075] An interpolation method of the log information is not particularly
limited, but for example, if a distance between positions indicated by
positional information of two pieces of log information is smaller than a
predetermined value, the log information interpolation unit 314 generates
one or more pieces of log information which include the positional
information of either of two pieces of log information and clock time
information determined such that the log information is obtained at a
predetermined time interval. The log information interpolation unit 314
may also generate one or more pieces of log information which include the
positional information of either of two pieces of log information and
clock time information indicating a predetermined clock time.

[0076] On the one hand, if the distance between the positions indicated by
positional information of two pieces of log information is larger than
the predetermined value, the log information interpolation unit 314
generates one or more pieces of log information such that, for example,
positions indicated by the log information generated in the interpolation
process are arranged at a regular interval on a straight line connecting
the positions indicated by two pieces of log information. In this case,
the log information interpolation unit 314 may also calculate a moving
speed of the communication terminal 110 based on two pieces of log
information and generate the clock time information of the log
information generated by the interpolation based on the moving speed of
the communication terminal 110. Note that if the position indicated by
the positional information of two pieces of log information is arranged
on a road or on a rail, the log information interpolation unit 314 may
also generate one or more pieces of log information such that the
position indicated by the log information generated by the interpolation
is positioned on the road or on the rail.

[0077] FIG. 4 schematically illustrates one example of the interpolation
method in the log information interpolation unit 314. In the present
embodiment, the log information 410 before an interpolation includes log
information 412, log information 414, log information 416 and log
information 418. For simplicity of the description, one example of the
interpolation method is described by using as an exemplary case in which
a time between a clock time t0 and a clock time t1 and a time between a
clock time t2 and a clock time t3 are five minutes, respectively, and a
time between the clock time t1 and the clock time t2 is 20 minutes.

[0078] In the present embodiment, the log information interpolation unit
314 first determines, for each of the log information 412 and the log
information 414, the log information 414 and the log information 416, and
the log information 416 and the log information 418, whether an interval
between the clock times of the two pieces of log information is larger
than five minutes. In the present embodiment, because the interval
between the clock times of the log information 414 and the log
information 416 is larger than five minutes, the log information
interpolation unit 314 determines to generate one or more pieces of log
information for interpolating the log information 414 and the log
information 416.

[0079] In the present embodiment, the log information interpolation unit
314 generates log information 432, log information 434 and log
information 436. Clock time information of the log information 432, the
log information 434 and the log information 436 is determined such that,
for example, the log information 432, the log information 434 and the log
information 436 are arranged at a regular interval in time order.
Positional information of the log information 432, the log information
434 and the log information 436 is determined based on positions
indicated by the positional information of the log information 414 and
the log information 416. The log information interpolation unit 314
stores interpolated log information 420 which includes the log
information 432, the log information 434 and the log information 436 in
the storage unit 224. This allows a population at an arbitrary clock time
to be readily estimated.

[0081] The visitor count estimation unit 512 estimates, based on the log
information, the number of visitors of a facility in each of one or more
geographic ranges in a predetermined time period. More particularly, the
visitor count estimation unit 512 counts up the number of communication
terminals 110 present in the facility in each of one or more geographic
ranges in the predetermined time period, based on the log information
stored in the storage unit 224, for example. The visitor count estimation
unit 512 derives an estimated value of the number of visitors by
multiplying the number of communication terminals 110 by a parameter
indicating correlation between the number of visitors and the number of
communication terminals 110.

[0082] The parameter indicating correlation between the number of visitors
and the number of communication terminals 110 is calculated in advance,
for example, based on a prior field survey. This allows the number of
visitors to be derived with a relatively high accuracy in facilities
several times as many as those subject to field surveys. As a result, in
the generation process or the update process of the calculation basic
information or the basic pattern information, data can be collected
efficiently in statistically significant numbers.

[0083] The basic information generation unit 514 generates the calculation
basic information, based on the number of visitors determined by the
visitor count estimation unit 512. The basic information generation unit
514 stores the generated calculation basic information in the storage
unit 224. The basic information generation unit 514 may also update the
calculation basic information stored in the storage unit 224, by using
the generated calculation basic information.

[0084] The basic pattern generation unit 516 generates the basic pattern
information, for example, based on the log information stored in the
storage unit 224. More particularly, the basic pattern generation unit
516 generates the population fluctuation pattern indicating the temporal
population fluctuation of the facility in each of one or more geographic
ranges, based on the number of visitors determined by the visitor count
estimation unit 512 or the number of communication terminals 110 present
in the facility in each of one or more geographic ranges in the
predetermined time period. The basic pattern generation unit 516 may also
generate a function expression which approximates the population
fluctuation pattern described above. The function expression which
approximates the population fluctuation pattern is not particularly
limited, but may include a linear function, an exponent function, a
logarithm function, a trigonometric function, and a combination thereof.
The function expression which approximates the population fluctuation
pattern may be determined by a known algorithm such as the least square
method.

[0085] Next, the basic pattern generation unit 516 determines the facility
type in each of one or more geographic ranges, based on the specification
information or the population fluctuation pattern of the facility in each
of one or more geographic ranges. The basic pattern generation unit 516
generates the basic pattern information such that the generated
population fluctuation pattern and the determined facility type are
associated with each other. The basic pattern generation unit 516 stores
the generated basic pattern information in the storage unit 224. The
basic pattern generation unit 516 may also update the basic pattern
information stored in the storage unit 224, by using the generated basic
pattern information.

[0087] FIG. 7 schematically illustrates one example of a data table 700.
The data table 700 may be one example of the log information stored in
the log information storage unit 612. In the present embodiment, the data
table 700 stores a terminal ID 712, positional information 714 indicating
a position of the communication terminal 110 identified by the terminal
ID 712, and clock time information 716 indicating a clock time at which
the positional information 714 is obtained such that they are associated
with one another. The terminal ID 712 may be one example of the terminal
identification information.

[0088] FIG. 8 schematically illustrates one example of a data table 800.
The data table 800 may be one example of the basic pattern information
stored in the basic pattern storage unit 614. In the present embodiment,
the data table 800 stores a pattern ID 812, a facility type 814 of a
facility to which the basic pattern identified by the pattern ID 812 is
applied, and basic pattern information 816 of the basic pattern
identified by the pattern ID 812 such that they are associated with one
another. The basic pattern information 816 includes, for example,
information about a temporal population fluctuation pattern on weekdays
820 and information about a temporal population fluctuation pattern on
holidays 830.

[0089] FIG. 9 schematically illustrates one example of a data table 900.
The data table 900 may be one example of the calculation basic
information stored in the calculation basic information storage unit 616.
In the present embodiment, the data table 900 stores a basic information
ID 912, a facility type 914 of a facility to which the calculation basic
information identified by the basic information ID 912 is applied, and
calculation basic information 916 identified by the basic information ID
912 such that they are associated with one another. The calculation basic
information 916 includes items such as a calculation expression 922 for
estimating a population based on specifications of each facility, a stay
time per day 924 of a visitor for each facility type, and an area factor
926. The area factor 926 may be a correction factor depending on the
area.

[0090] The calculation basic information 916 may also include first
calculation basic information for each type of a steadily fluctuating
facility, used for population movement estimation of the steadily
fluctuating facility, where the steadily fluctuating facility is a
facility constantly visited by specified persons, and second calculation
basic information for each type of a variably fluctuating facility, used
for population movement estimation of the variably fluctuating facility,
where the variably fluctuating facility is a facility inconstantly
visited by unspecified persons. The calculation expression 922 may
include a calculation expression defined by correlation between the
number of visitors of the variably fluctuating facility and the number of
cars parked in a parking lot of the variably fluctuating facility. The
calculation expression 922 may include a calculation expression defined
by correlation between the number of visitors of the variably fluctuating
facility and a capacity-related condition of the variably fluctuating
facility.

[0091] FIG. 10 schematically illustrates one example of a data table 1000.
The data table 1000 may be one example of the facility information stored
in the facility information storage unit 618. In the present embodiment,
the data table 1000 stores a facility ID 1012, a facility type 1014 of
the facility identified by the facility ID 1012, area identification
information 1016 for identifying the geographic range of the facility
identified by the facility ID 1012, and information indicating a
specification 1018 of the facility identified by the facility ID 1012
such that they are associated with one another. As the specification
1018, for example, the number of rooms 1022 and a total floor area 1024
may be illustrated.

[0092] The area identification information 1016 just needs to be
information indicating a boundary of the facility identified by the
facility ID 1012, but is not particularly limited. As the area
identification information 1016, for example, positional information of a
feature point of the geographic range of the facility, information for
identifying an area mesh included in the geographic range of the
facility, and information for identifying an area mesh in which the
facility is included may be illustrated. If the boundary of the facility
includes a polygon, the feature point of the geographic range of the
facility may be an apex of the polygon. If the boundary of the facility
includes a circle or an oval, the feature point of the geographic range
of the facility may be a center and a radius or major and minor diameters
of the circle or the oval. The area identification information 1016 may
also include information about the height. The information about the
height may be, in a building having a plurality of floors, information
for identifying a floor on which the particular facility is present.

[0093] While the embodiments of the present invention have been described,
the technical scope of the invention is not limited to the above
described embodiments. It is apparent to persons skilled in the art that
various alterations and improvements can be added to the above-described
embodiments. Also, unless a technical contradiction occurs, the matters
described in the particular embodiment can be applied to another
embodiment. It is also apparent from the scope of the claims that the
embodiments added with such alterations or improvements can be included
in the technical scope of the invention.

[0094] The operations, procedures, steps, and stages of each process
performed by an apparatus, system, program, and method shown in the
claims, embodiments, or diagrams can be performed in any order as long as
the order is not indicated by "prior to," "before," or the like and as
long as the output from a previous process is not used in a later
process. Even if the process flow is described using phrases such as
"first" or "next" in the claims, embodiments, or diagrams, it does not
necessarily mean that the process must be performed in this order.