Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

Archive for February 19th, 2003

Sumate, the private group that organized the collection of signatures for as many as ten different referenda on Feb. 2nd. reported today the final figures for the total number of signatures obtained. The Constitutional amendment petition was the most successful (and visible) of all of them, receiving 4.426 million signatures. Our own calculation suggests this is truly an outstanding number if one assumes typical abstention levels, the fact that the activity was restricted to towns and cities above a certain size, bypassing as much as 25% of the country’s population and that the pro and anti-Chavez forces are divided 30% to 70%. Under these assumptions, we obtain a maximum possible of 4.8 million pro-Chavez voters for potentially signing the petitions. Note that only 15% of the registered voters are required for an amendment, but the final number was 37% of all registered voters. For the recall referendum, a total of 3.245 million signatures were collected above the required 3 million signatures. Finally for the referendum to revoke 47 of the 49 laws approved by the Government under the enabling law, Sumate gathered a total of 3.5 million signatures, while only 1.2 million were needed. Clearly, there is no longer a mandate for a revolution. In fact, this is a clear rejection of what Hugo Chavez and his revolution stand for.