October 04, 2011

Bill Nelson leads host of Republicans by at least 13 points

Raleigh, N.C. – His opponents are faceless names at this point, but Florida Sen. Bill Nelson holds double-digit leads over any of the four Republicans vying to face him next fall. And unlike many incumbents who are on shaky ground in this turbulent political environment, Nelson’s leads have only grown since PPP last polled the state in June.

Per last week’s release, Mike McCalister is the narrow early leader of the GOP primary, and he is closest to Nelson, but still trails by 13 points, 47-34. The only two candidates matched against Nelson in the previous poll also matched in this one, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux, are down by identical 49-35 margins. That is up a bit from respective 47-35 and 46-35 margins three months ago. Craig Miller lags by 17, 49-32.

Only 18% to 31% of voters have an opinion on the GOP contenders personally, so Nelson does benefit from their anonymity to some extent. 15-22% of Republicans and 29-33% of independents remain undecided, versus only 7-10% of Democrats. But the contests would only get a little closer once the Republicans have settled on a nominee, because Nelson has leads of 19 to 25 points with independents, and he earns 12-15% of the Republican vote, while they poach only 8% or 9% of Nelson’s partisans.

A larger part of Nelson’s boost than his potential opponents being unknown is that his approval rating is slowly rising. Nelson’s net approval margin is up from 36-33 last December to 38-34 in March to 38-31 in June to 40-32 now. That still puts him in the middle of the pack of the 87 senators on which PPP has polled. But he is in better shape than Claire McCaskill, Scott Brown, Robert Menendez, Dean Heller, Orrin Hatch, Sherrod Brown, and Debbie Stabenow, all of whom are also up for re-election in 2012.

“Nelson’s vulnerability is overstated,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters don’t love him, but they don’t hate him, and with pretty strong support from Republicans and independents, he’s going to be hard to beat.”

PPP surveyed 476 Florida voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof George LeMieux?Favorable........................................................ 8%Unfavorable .................................................... 23%Not sure .......................................................... 69%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Bill Nelson and Republican AdamHasner, who would you vote for?Bill Nelson....................................................... 49%Adam Hasner.................................................. 35%Undecided....................................................... 16%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Bill Nelson and Republican GeorgeLeMieux, who would you vote for?Bill Nelson....................................................... 49%George LeMieux ............................................. 35%Undecided....................................................... 15%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Bill Nelson and Republican MikeMcCalister, who would you vote for?Bill Nelson....................................................... 47%Mike McCalister .............................................. 34%Undecided....................................................... 19%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Bill Nelson and Republican CraigMiller, who would you vote for?Bill Nelson....................................................... 49%Craig Miller...................................................... 32%Undecided....................................................... 19%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 45%Barack Obama................................................ 48%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 52%Man................................................................. 48%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 40%Republican...................................................... 37%Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 16%30 to 45........................................................... 22%46 to 65........................................................... 36%Older than 65.................................................. 26%

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