Research Article

Forecast Population Ageing. A Comparative Study Between France and Japan

Javier González-Rosas1 & Iliana Zárate-Gutiérrez2

1Directorate of Socio Economic Studies and International Migration,
National Population Council, Mexico.2Subdirectorate of State and Municipal Coordination,
National Population Council, Mexico.

Accepted 27th July, 2018; Available Online 31st July, 2018.

Abstract:

France and Japan are countries that have had a high economic and health development over time on worldwide. This high development is the result of success public policies that these countries have implemented through time. The effect of their development has improved the health of their inhabitants particularly among the ageing persons who each time live more and more years. However, it arise the following questions due to the humans cannot live forever: what is the maximum number of years that can live the ageing persons? The maximum is the same for Japan and France? How many years France and Japan will reach that maximum? In order to answer these questions, we use the Stable Bounded Theory and the Human Mortality Database of the Berkeley University. The major results show that nowadays Japan and France are the countries that have the highest life expectancy at aging with 21.91 and 21.23 years respectively. Also is indicated the maximum for Japan that is 22.94 years and for France is 27.46 years. After that, we deduce a mathematical function that allowed us forecast the life expectancy at ageing until year 2050. The mathematical function that we found was the logistic function, such that, the upper bound of this function was the estimated maximum value. According to the results of the projecting we estimated for Japan that in 2025 the life expectancy at ageing will be 22.31 years, in 2035 will be 24.28 and in 2050 will arrive to 25.55 years. In France, the life expectancy at ageing in 2025 will be 23.13 years, in 2035 will be 24.28, and in 2050 will be 25.55. That is, Japan will reach practically the maximum in 2035, whereas France still in 2050 will be very far of the maximum value.