The Republican Party is still relying on the youth of yesterday, which was captured by Ronald Reagan. These voters have grown older and matured into the backbone of the Republican vote. Barack Obama has managed to capture the youth of today who will become core Democrat voters.

The most likely outcome of the 6 November elections is that not much is going to change in a relative sense. We foresee a second term for Obama, a (dark) red House of Representatives, and a Senate where the Democrats will win by a hair (although the latter is far from certain).