A new report by the U.S. Defense Department says China is continuing to increase its military capabilities in ways that have already altered the regional military balance and is causing concern about China's future intentions. The annual report is required by Congress.

The report says China is increasing its force of short range ballistic missiles that could attack Taiwan and other regional targets, and looking to buy or develop more advanced and capable aircraft and ships. The report says China is also increasing its high-technology ability to disrupt other countries' access to communications, computer networks and other services essential to modern defense, and society as a whole.

Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Rodman says China appears to be preparing to project its military power beyond its immediate surroundings. "There are indications that they are thinking more broadly and at the very beginnings, perhaps, of developing power projection for other contingencies other than Taiwan," he said.

The report says such contingencies could involve conflicts over territory or resources. Last year's report on China came to a similar conclusion. But this year, the report adds that U.S. analysts have been 'surprised' by 'the pace and scope' of the modernization of China's strategic forces. And Rodman says Chinese officials are also discussing possible revisions in their defense doctrines, including their pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons in any conflict.

"What is interesting to us is the fact that there seems to be a debate going on there. As their capabilities improve it is possible to speculate that they may be looking at other options," he said.

Rodman says the United States accepts Chinese assurances that the 'no first use' doctrine is still in effect, but his concern on nuclear doctrine and China's growing military capability is for the future. "Certainly they have limitations now. We don't exaggerate their capability. And they, too, seem realistic about their capability. But they seem to have a very patient strategy of investment, planning, just growing over time. And five years from now, ten years from now, they can expect that maybe the balance of forces will be different than it is now," he said.

The assistant defense secretary says U.S. concerns are heightened because, although it has made some progress toward more openness, China continues to provide very limited information on its military programs and intentions, at a time when its military spending is increasing rapidly.

China analyst Daniel Blumenthal at the American Enterprise Institute, who used to handle China issues at the defense department, says U.S. policy has been to 'go slow' with China, and try to convince its leaders to use their growing power constructively. He supports that for now, but he says a more active U.S. response in terms of increasing its own military capabilities may be needed in the future. "At this point, I think we still need to push them into areas where we might gain cooperation, but I think that you also have to know when to say that that's not working, and be prepared to really balance against this military expansion," he said.

The U.S. government report says China continues to pursue an approach articulated by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, an approach that includes quiet development and hiding the country's true military capacity. Assistant Secretary Rodman says U.S. policy-makers keep that very much in mind. "It should be obvious from this report that we're watching pretty carefully and we know what we're dealing with," he said.

China strongly criticized last year's U.S. Defense Department report on its military. U.S. officials defended that report, saying it was factual and not inflammatory. This year, they say that while there is continuing cause for concern, there are only incremental changes to report.

Go to Free Republic's home page and visit The China Report link; that gives you a thorough history of China's build up until 1999, when it was released (I know, I helped write it).

Many of the documents used in the report were found in the archives of the Federation of American Scientists (www.fas.org). While FAS is typically considered a left-leaning organization, they capture and archive a lot of the reports provided to Congress from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and General Accounting Office (GAO). They also retain reports on International Nuclear threat assessments.

Nope, no one has the ability to invade us... and hold there ground... yet. China actually doesn't even have enough logistics to invade Taiwan but that soon will change. If we continue down the road of denial I would say by 2040 or 2050 china could potentially invade us if they chose but that is a big if and a lot of variables I cant factor in.

However, no one may be able to invade us yet, there are countries that could obliterate us (though we would follow suit upon them) in thirty minutes time and those nations being Russia and China to a lesser extent.

8
posted on 05/24/2006 1:26:03 AM PDT
by spikeytx86
(Pray for Democrats for they have been brainwashed by there fruity little club.)

I agree china cant attack us yet. But by 2015 I expect China to be able to take Taiwan if not sooner. After that it seems rather obvious Japan is next on their list.

china has given Taiwan an Ultimatum to turn control over or face being taken over. Taiwan must decide this by 2012 or they will be attacked, if Taiwan agrees they have a few more years before being taken much like what took place with Hong Kong.

I can see Taiwain being in grave danger by 2015 (if not sooner) but Japan has started making rumblings of strengthening there defenses and loosening there restraints on what there armed services can and can not do.

If china invades Taiwan or continues to build up as if it is going to, then I would bet Japan starts a serious build up as well, and japan has access to far superior technology and talent then china does. Also you could see japan develop it's own nuclear weapons if N. Korea keeps up the intimidation antics with Japan. Japan could prove to be a very very good counter balance in East Asia so I wouldn't assume she would just roll over and die.

12
posted on 05/24/2006 2:08:27 AM PDT
by spikeytx86
(Pray for Democrats for they have been brainwashed by there fruity little club.)

So augment the Japan's SDF with some offensive capability and keep helping India build its economy. Tie China to the rest of the world with trade and treaties, and start taking an informal poll of the allies to find out who'd back sanctions against China in the event of war with Taiwan.

Also, let's not forget that augmented capabilites or not, China isn't ready to take on the USN.

"Certainly they have limitations now. We don't exaggerate their capability. And they, too, seem realistic about their capability. But they seem to have a very patient strategy of investment, planning, just growing over time. And five years from now, ten years from now, they can expect that maybe the balance of forces will be different than it is now," he said.

This is a very serious statement from a high government official.

Considering how often the word "surprising" is applied by the analysts who study Red China's military progress, well, I wouldn't expect anything except sharp revisions downward on those time scales.

I think that we should cease all normal trade relations with the PRC. I don't know how much effect that will have at this late juncture, but I believe that we are still the largest source of their profits. It's foolish of us to continue to build up the world's largest totalitarian state.

I think the more plausible scenario is if for some reason the Chinese economy collapses. With the possibility of mass rioting and internal unrest what better way to distract the masses with an invasion of Taiwan. Of course the Communist party of China would promote it as "unifying a renegade province".

You can't blame all of this on WM. China has infiltrated all markets because at this point the rest of the world can't compete with them. I don't see it to be in China's best interest to start a war with anyone. Why kill your best customers.

And couple with this: About 10 years ago, didn't the PRC complain when we proposed to give/sell AEGIS-equipped ships to Taiwan because the enhanced ability to detect the PLA's increasingly aggressive activities was seen as 'provocative'? Didn't Clinton cave on this?

China's been eclipsed by the War on Terror, but prior to 9/11 they were the topic around here.

Free traders don't understand that China's economy isn't about free trade, it's mercantilist and dedicated to making themselves top dog.

I'm wondering what's going to happen as energy prices go up (10% this week) ? They seem to be tweaking the nationalistic even racist tendencies of their populace, as if priming them for war. They haven't got enough women for their men, thanks to the one child policy. They're still carrying a torch over Japan's occupation.

Horney men from one-child homes, a declining economy, a strong ethnic (Han) identity, nervous political elites... We're in for 'interesting times.'

This is bad news, just today morning I read in the newspaper Pakistan is buying 4 Chinese F22 frigates. China is building its navy along with that of its allies in the Indian Ocean in a big way. They are preparing for a showdown while US is caught up in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Considering how often the word "surprising" is applied by the analysts who study Red China's military progress, well, I wouldn't expect anything except sharp revisions downward on those time scales."

Yes. Here's our problem. Many of our officer veterans of the Vietnam years (including some in the Pentagon) continue to equate such Asians with monkeys (not me--them, as I've listened to too many of them) and assume that they are not intelligent enough to learn from our university engineering programs and to update military hardware. ...bad mistake, but what should we expect from the time of our hippies but vanities? Now the hippie generation is making big bucks ("live for today, but don't worry 'bout tomorrow, yeah, yeah") off of the Chinese.

Quite a few Freepers bow to the FAS site, too, though the FAS lefties are running nothing more than an antique show to lull us. Our US Defense publishes newer stuff than the FAS anti-defense freaks.

Sadly for all of us, they'll be even more surprised in the near future, if they don't stop underestimating certain foreign nations.

33
posted on 05/24/2006 11:35:16 AM PDT
by familyop
("Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." --President Bush)

"This is bad news, just today morning I read in the newspaper Pakistan is buying 4 Chinese F22 frigates. China is building its navy along with that of its allies in the Indian Ocean in a big way. They are preparing for a showdown while US is caught up in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Our military itself is not so caught-up, as only a small portion of it is in those countries. Only about three of our carrier groups would probably be enough to stop worst likely expansionist move--for now.

But you are correct in that China is taking advantage of the War on Terror in general to increase its military capabilities beyond its interests. Destabilization of the Middle East has been perpetrated for similar reasons in the past.

Our politicians and media people are caught-up and are trying to interfere with the needed building of our defense. They seek to under-fund defense projects and to appease nations that are building on aggressive intentions.

34
posted on 05/24/2006 11:43:48 AM PDT
by familyop
("Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." --President Bush)

China has a domestic market of over 1 billion people, the US market is less then 300 million and 5,000 miles distant. What US free traders are doing is jump starting the Chinese economy, at some point soon China domestic/Asian market will dwarf it's usa market and resources (oil/gas) will be far more important to the Chinese economy then selling to us.

Should China be able to humiliate the US say over Taiwan or some other incident US influence in the Pacific Rim will crumble and the Pacific Rim nations will ally/trade with the Chicoms not the USA.

China's been eclipsed by the War on Terror, but prior to 9/11 they were the topic around here.

The Muslims today remind me of the Indian Alliances a few hundred years ago. Interesting how history kind of repeats its self, the savages never seem to go away.

In those days France was the primary concern for the English. Russia and China should be our primary concern today. The savages shouldn't be our main concern.

China and Russia are also working together with Muslims in the Sudan.

China has been up to last year kinda working with the Tali-ban and Al Qaeda until Al Qaeda declared a Jihad on China. Now China has plans in the works with Russia to invade Muslim territories someplace in Kazakhstan bordering Xinjiang Province. This isnt a matter of if it is a matter of when they will invade.

If china invades Taiwan or continues to build up as if it is going to, then I would bet Japan starts a serious build up as well.

As RobbyS points out Japan is re-militarizing and at a rate nearly as fast as the Chinese though Japan has much better equipment. Japan could still be taken in the near future with the new Alliance between China and Russia.

Wal Mart did not "start it." We have been importanting goods from China well before just Wal Mart did it. The USA has always done this. Shoe makers, even baseball gloves made in other countries. You can bash Wal Mart all you want if you desire, but Wal Mart is not the causer here. Wal Mart simply followed all the others before it.

40
posted on 05/24/2006 1:27:02 PM PDT
by RetiredArmy
(You better prepare, the war is coming to the USA VERY SOON!)

More than 80 percent of the 6,000 factories in Wal-Mart's worldwide database of suppliers are in China. Wal-Mart estimates it spent $15 billion on Chinese-made products last year, accounting for nearly one-eighth of all Chinese exports to the United States. If the company that Sam Walton built with his "Made in America" ad campaign were itself a separate nation, it would rank as China's fifth-largest export market, ahead of Germany and Britain.

"The Muslims today remind me of the Indian Alliances a few hundred years ago."

I can't agree with you on this. The muslim ethos is savage and primitive enough, but it's assisted by well established networks and considerable technical skill. They have studied us carefully in order to use our morality, our legal and social structures against us.

The Ruskies and the Chicoms are discovering that they'll fair no better. I don't hold out much hope that they'll realize our shared threat, but there is a chance.

The terrorist operatives have been thoroughly indoctrinated--I would say in many cases utterly brainwashed. Those prayers sessions --with their bowing to Mecca and all --aren't prayers, they are mass hypnosis.

The communists are greedy, hence predictable. They, like everyone else, want more. The risk of somebody winding up with less keeps them reasonably cautious and us wary. The muslims, on the other hand, have convinced themselves that they want nothing. They are merely vectors of some Imam's carefully nurtured rage. I don't think we've encountered this mix of savagery, technological sophistication and ideological orthodoxy before now.

The Muslim ethos is savage and primitive enough, but it's assisted by well established networks and considerable technical skill. They have studied us carefully in order to use our morality, our legal and social structures against us.

That is a good point. Remember when we allowed the Cherokee to create a western civilization? We didnt like that one bit and set them west on the trail of tears.

The difference is we not only allow the Muslims to what we have we are encouraging it. In other words the Muslims are a much more powerful enemy then the Indians were. I agree with you but they are still being used the same way as the Indians were. They are still savages just more sophisticated then the Indian savages.

The Ruskies and the Chicoms are using the Muslims for their bidding. Or attempting to very much like what we did in Afghanistan after Jimmy Carter screwed up the region.

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