For the opening encounter against Italy, a home game at Twickenham, against a side that had never beaten England, Martin Johnson had allowed himself to try something beyond the functional, putting Steffon Armitage into the back row, and Shane Geraghty and Ben Foden on the bench.

Perhaps Johnson was always going to be more cautious going to Cardiff. But perhaps he might also have taken the view that the weirdness of the Mauro half – the 40 minutes of Bergamasco the Elder wearing 9 – would have disturbed the rhythm of any side, especially at the start of a campaign.

For those who view the Guinness Premiership as the most glittering league in the world, and wonder how it simply does not spew forth players ready-made for international rugby, the truth is that there is a gulf still between club and Test standard. It's all about pace, from facing military medium to reacting to 90mph deliveries. Technique suffers until you adjust or readjust to the sheer hostility of the environment.

And that readjustment is not helped when you suddenly find that Brett Lee in his opening spell feeds you nothing but long hops. Gifts are the last thing you expect after rehearsing for sheer parsimony.

England weren't the only team to have their concentration levels disturbed. Scotland failed to live up to their billing, and Wales had the game won at Murrayfield in about the same time-span as England, and they too then let their minds wander.

It is rare to find a match of such quality as Ireland-France on the opening day of the Six Nations. To start slowly, to be found blinking in the strangeness of it all, is more the norm. Round two will be very different.

England will be tough to crack at the Millennium Stadium. I expect no domination at the set pieces, just bone-jarring parity: Wales with a slightly steadier scrum, England a touch more efficient at the line-out.

What will settle the outcome is this question of pace. Wales in possession will not compromise on cranking it up, quickening the beat until something gives. But will it be their skills or England's defence? England, presumably, will kick the ball for territory, stop the counter-attack and wait for the referee. Tries against penalties, attack against defence; Wales against England.

Coach Marc Lièvremont has replaced Sébastien Chabal in the second row with Romain Millo-Chlusky, and brought in two grinding props. France have no worries about their finishing qualities; they just want to give it a blast at the basics. Less Chabal at the outside shoulder of the midfield; more Millo-Chlusky at the ribs of the ruckers.

And Italy cannot possibly be anything but better against Ireland than they were against England. If they were playing against losers from round one – Scotland, say – they would be favourites, but Ireland are suddenly a team transformed, with the woes of the past 18 months firmly behind them.

Match predictions

So how will round two go? France to beat Scotland by 20 points in a game whose shape will be the opposite of last weekend's. That is, Scotland will be first-rate in defence for an hour and then leak points as tiredness takes its toll.

The Irish will take full control even later in Rome: Ireland to beat Italy by 12 points. "Professional job" will be the assessment after a gruelling combat up front, with only a couple of late tries as the garnish.

And in Cardiff, it's all about the size of the Welsh margin. It'll be either 20 points or more as England find that Wales cannot be contained, or under five points as Wales largely fail to dislodge the heavy foot on their brake. The sandbag or the samba? Let's live a little: Wales to beat England by 21 points.

This is an extract from Eddie Butler's free twice-weekly Six Nations email, The Breakdown. To subscribe, click here