Will win: “Argo.” Conventional wisdom said it couldn’t win, considering that only one movie (“Driving Miss Daisy”) in the past 80 years took the top prize without a nomination for its director. Then “Argo” beat presumed frontrunner “Lincoln” at every turn in the build-up to tonight’s bash.

Should win: “Argo.” In retrospect, Ben Affleck’s snub was the best thing that could have happened for its best picture chances in what had been considered a wide-open year.

Will win: Lawrence. Chastain had a meatier role, and Riva seems to be closing fast. But Lawrence has been winning the popularity contest. Having also starred in “The Hunger Games” last year certainly doesn’t hurt.

Should win: Wallis. She carried a best picture nominee. As a 6-year-old.