Projected Year End Distance, Elevation Etc.

What will be your key stats be looking like by the end of the year? VeloViewer tries it’s best to tell you your projected distance, elevation, time, suffer/explorer score totals and more.

On the year comparison chart on your Summary page you will see the projected year end value for the selected display value along with a dotted line showing the path required to achieve that target:

Previous years’ trends vs current trend

The evolution of this piece of functionality has taken it initially from being based purely on the current trajectory of your values, through being based purely on previous years’ trends to now being an adjustable combination of the two.

If you have been logging data to Strava over numerous years and this year is no different that the past then chances are your activity will follow a similar pattern this year. So typically, in the northern hemisphere, the amount of activity follows an S curve with the steepest increase of activity during the summer with it tapering off through the winter. But lots of people are striving to improve on previous years resulting in the previous years’ trends having less relevance. So we have the mixer option below the chart:

Defaulting to a 50/50 split between previous years’ trends and your last 30 days. Dragging the slider fully to the left weights the projection to be purely based on previous years’ trends. Sliding to the right initially weights the projection towards the recent trend using the last 30 days of data. Slide it further still to the right and the number of previous days reduces from 30 down to a minimum of 7:

As you slide it you’ll see the projected value and line adjust accordingly so hopefully you can find the best fit for your expected progress for the rest of the year.

NSsays:

Something has gone wrong with the “Previous Years’ Trends” calculation. In 2015 (my first Strava year) I did 2872 miles, and last year I did 4415. If I move the slider fully to the left, it predicts I will do 41904 miles this year. Perhaps it knows something I don’t!

Steve Rsays:

I’ve got something similar – using 100% previous years trends, I’m estimated to do over 7,500 miles this year, even though both my last two years have only just scraped 3,000. With a 50/50 trends/recent split, I bring this down to 5,200 miles. The estimates were pretty much on point towards the end of last year however.

Similar to NS, you are currently a long way ahead of where you were in the last two years so the prediction still follows the previous 2 years’ trend (i/e/ it’s shape over the year) but is expecting you to carry on with your increased distances. If you filter to just show 2017 and 2014 (so it ignores 2016 & 2015) then you’ll see it bases it on 2014’s trend which is more similar to the start of this year.
Some people increase their distances with the intention to carry on in that way for the year so the prediction balances that scenario alongside your scenario where you are starting strong but don’t intend to carry on at that rate.