Objectives.
Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine
particles represent two significant current public health
stressors in the New York metropolitan area. Both of these
stressors may be impacted by future changes in the global
climate as well as continued expansion of human-dominated land
uses in the region. To date, there has been little effort to
link climate change and land use/land cover (LU/LC) models in
assessments of potential future impacts of heat stress and air quality.

Our study will link human dimension and natural
sciences models describing the behaviors of these systems to
yield improved tools for assessing the future public health
impacts of climate change in the context of existing
environmental stressors. The model will be applied to the 31
county NY metropolitan east coast (MEC) region. The following
questions will be addressed:

What changes in the frequency and severity
of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80
years due to a range of possible scenarios of LU/LC and climate
change in the MEC region?

How might the frequency and severity of
episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne
particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm in diameter

(PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range
of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the
metropolitan region?

What is the range of possible human health
impacts of these changes in the MEC region?

How might projected future human exposures
and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a
function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the
MEC region?

Link models for global and regional climate, land use and cover,
and air quality...
to examine the potential public health impacts of heat and
air pollution under alternative scenarios of climate change
and regional land use in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the
NYC metropolitan region.

Approach.
An integrated model will be developed linking models for LU/LC,
global climate change, regional climate change, atmospheric
chemistry and pollution transport, and the impacts of heat
stress and air quality on public health. Four scenarios of LU/LC
change and two global climate scenarios (run with the GISS GCM)
will be analyzed. Impacts will be examined during the decades
of the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

Expected Results.
The research will provide improved tools for integrated
assessments of future public health risks due to heat and air
quality changes driven by climate change/variability and changes
in land use. In addition, the research will lead to a better
understanding of the driving forces behind long-term
environmental changes, and the role played by socio-economic and
demographic factors in the resulting human impacts.