Friday, August 9, 2013

NFL 2013: Strength of Schedule

We have all by now read SOS numbers using 2012 final regular
season records.But truthfully those
figures are almost entirely useless as there is a lot of turnover on teams each
season, along with the fact many teams over or under achieved record wise last
season when basing it on “true performance.”But the main reason using last year’s records for current season SOS is
not a good exercise is each season we can expect at least 8 & usually no more than 12 teams will shift
their win total by four or more – hence, not a lot of promise in doing any SOS
analysis based on last year’s records.

Below I have broken down 2013 SOS using the following three
metrics:

·2013 Initial Power Ratings

·2012 Final Power Rankings

·2012 Final Performance Rankings

I will lay out the data in those three buckets, and analyze
what each of those metrics tell us, along with doing an aggregate SOS of those
3 metrics at the end.

Here are my main SOS figures which breaks it down using the
initial 2013 team by team power ratings:

USING
2013 POWER RATINGS

SOS
for Road

SOS
for Home

TOTAL
SOS

NYG

190.5

1

184.0

3

374.5

1

MIN

180.5

3

175.0

7

355.5

2

BAL

175.5

8

179.0

4

354.5

3

TB

178.0

6

170.5

14

348.5

4

ATL

173.0

14

175.0

7

348.0

5

WAS

178.5

5

169.0

16

347.5

6

CHI

172.0

15

175.0

7

347.0

7

ARI

160.0

25

186.0

1

346.0

8

STL

184.5

2

161.5

25

346.0

8

DAL

166.5

20

178.5

5

345.0

10

GB

175.0

9

169.5

15

344.5

11

DET

172.0

15

172.0

12

344.0

12

NO

175.0

9

167.5

18

342.5

13

PHI

177.0

7

165.0

22

342.0

14

CAR

167.5

19

173.5

10

341.0

15

SF

156.0

27

184.5

2

340.5

16

NE

169.0

18

171.0

13

340.0

17

JAC

174.0

12

163.0

24

337.0

18

OAK

175.0

9

159.5

26

334.5

19

SEA

179.0

4

154.5

31

333.5

20

TEN

173.5

13

158.0

27

331.5

21

CIN

160.5

23

169.0

16

329.5

22

CLE

172.0

15

156.0

30

328.0

23

SD

152.5

29

175.5

6

328.0

23

MIA

160.5

23

166.5

19

327.0

25

IND

158.5

26

166.5

19

325.0

26

KC

152.5

29

172.5

11

325.0

26

PIT

165.0

21

156.5

29

321.5

28

BUF

153.0

28

166.5

19

319.5

29

HOU

148.5

31

164.0

23

312.5

30

DEN

165.0

21

140.5

32

305.5

31

NYJ

140.0

32

158.0

27

298.0

32

The above data is stacked in order of strength with the #1
team NYG estimated to face the toughest 2013 schedule based on my initial Power
Ratings, while their neighbor NYJ are estimated to face the easiest.

In addition to overall SOS (the last column shaded in grey),
I have also included SOS broken out by home and road games.That breakout is absolutely critical because
in a perfect world teams prefer to face a bulk of their tougher opponents at
home, and the easier opponents on the road.While total SOS is a great gauge when looking at your favorite team’s
chances at a solid, double digit win season, using the home versus road
comparison can add even more value.

Let’s discuss a few teams that stand out for having a tough
schedule, easy schedule, and favorable or unfavorable breakdowns using the home
versus road comparison:

·NYG: this season the Giants are estimated
to face the toughest schedule in the NFL, and it’s by a wide margin of 19.0 SOS
points.What is an SOS point?The easiest way to explain this is a team
that is projected to be middle of the pack, 8-8 type team, is given a power
rating of 21.If you multiple 21 times
the 16 games a team will play that equals 336.0 – the Giants right now total a
374.5, which is an average opponent power rating of 23.4 – that rating is
typically equal to a borderline double digit win team.It all means on average the Giants are facing
9/10 win teams this upcoming season – extremely tough.Their opponents that really boost their
rating is facing DEN, NFC North, CAR & SEA.By facing the toughest schedule in the NFL, combined with obviously then
facing the toughest schedule of all teams in the ultra-competitive NFC East,
this could be the difference between earning a playoff berth versus just
missing out.

·STL: the Rams check in with a Top 10 SOS,
and a significant split between their home (#25) and road (#2) strength, which
will negatively impact their chances at making a run at a Wild Card berth in a
deep NFC.

·DAL: the Cowboys have the 3rd
toughest schedule in the NFC East, the 10th toughest schedule
overall, however, will enjoy a favorable split getting many of their tougher
games at home (5th toughest home slate).

·SF/SEA: the two teams that figure to
battle for the NFC West title have interesting splits, which will likely favor
SF in their hopes of winning back to back NFC West titles.SF will face the 27th toughest
road schedule (SEA is #4), while the Niners face the 2nd toughest
home schedule (SEA is #31).

·DEN/HOU/PIT: these three teams all have
one of the 5 easiest schedules this season, and I project all three to win
their respective divisions.With the
Broncos on paper having the best team in the NFL it’s highly likely they at
least secure a first round bye in the AFC playoffs, and very possible they
secure the #1 overall seed; in a still weak AFC South I look for HOU to secure
the #2 seed; PIT will bounce back in a big way this season and get back to the
playoffs.

Here is a division by division analysis, examining which
teams may have an edge in their search of a division title based on SOS:

·AFC East: the Patriots have clearly lost
some of their buffer zone between the rest of the division they have dominated
for the last decade, but with QB Tom Brady still playing at a high level, the
difference in QB play among contenders in the division will once again likely lead
to another title for NE.That being said
NE will face the toughest schedule in all 3 buckets (overall, road, home), with
NYJ facing the easiest in those buckets.MIA is a trendy selection to compete this season for an AFC East title,
and the schedule is there for them to accomplish just that.This division should be more bunched up 1-4
than usual, but still appears to be NE’s to lose.

·AFC North: the defending SB champs will
face the toughest schedule of the four teams, and by a VERY WIDE MARGIN.The Ravens overall SOS is #3, while CIN is
#22, CLE #23, and PIT #28.I am quite
bullish on PIT this season, and their SOS only strengthens my feelings as they
will face the easiest schedule they have faced since I started tracking these
statistics in 2008.I expect BAL to
struggle versus this schedule, while all three of their division counterparts
will make up ground on them quickly, including CLE.

·AFC South: in a still weak division
somehow the weakest team in the division JAC has the toughest schedule in 2 of
the 3 buckets including overall.What
will make it even tougher for anyone to catch HOU, clearly the most talented
team in the division, is the Texans will face the #30 SOS overall including the
second easiest road schedule in the league.

·AFC West: similar to the AFC South the
clear cut top team in the division DEN will face the easiest schedule, while
the weakest team in the division OAK will face the toughest schedule including
an extremely difficult #9 slate on the road. Many will fancy the chances of SD and/or KC
making a run at a Wild Card this season, which could definitely be in the cards
for those teams especially when considering the schedules they will face are
both inside the top 10 easiest in the league, including both facing the #29 SOS
on the road.Look for those schedules to
favor DEN in their drive for the #1 seed in the AFC, while SD & KC could
make a run at a surprise Wild Card.

·NFC East: this division is one of the
deepest in the NFL, and each team’s SOS represents that.NYG, discussed in this entry, will face the
toughest schedule including the #1 slate of road games which will make it tough
for them to win the division considering all four have a decent shot at earning
the crown.PHI will face the easiest
schedule, #14 overall, but they have the weakest roster of the four teams and
will still face the 7th toughest road schedule.DAL has perhaps the best schedule breakout
considering they will face just the 20th toughest road schedule in
the league.WAS, the defending NFC East
champs, will face a much stiffer schedule this season, making it tough to see
them repeating.From an SOS perspective
DAL sits best.

·NFC North: defending NFC North champ MIN
has the toughest schedule of the four division teams, and a tough schedule overall
checking in at #2, #3 on the road and #7 at home – all three the toughest in
the division (tied with CHI for toughest home slate).DET, a team many of my metrics is extremely
bullish on heading into 2013, faces the easiest schedule amongst division
teams, including being tied with CHI for the easiest road schedule at #15.All four teams face top 12 overall slates,
and top 15 both home and road slates – so the sledding will not be easy.But look for DET to potentially make a run at
a Wild Card berth with a favorable SOS, and many other metrics favoring a
turnaround for the Lions.

·NFC South: ATL, the defending NFC South
champ, and TB, one of last season’s darling’s, will face the toughest schedules
amongst the four division teams; CAR & NO are both about mid-point in the
NFL, and these are two teams many of my metrics favor for a turnaround in
2013.CAR is the only team of the four
in the division that has a double digit SOS in all 3 buckets, including facing
just the 19th toughest road schedule in the NFL.The SOS seems to point towards drops by ATL
& TB, along with improvements from NO & CAR – and keep in mind many of
my other metrics favor the same moves.

·NFC West: somehow, despite SF & SEA
being the clear-cut favorites in the division, and both team’s coming off
playoff berths LY, they will face the easiest schedules in the division (#16
& #20 respectively), while STL & ARI both tie for #8.This division also has the biggest
discrepancies between home & away SOS, laid out as follows:

oSEA: #31 home, #4 road

oSF: #2, #27

oARI: #1, #25

oSTL: #25, #2

oWith those significant differences in SOS we can
see SF has a big edge on SEA schedule wise, while STL has clearly drawn the
toughest, which will make it tough for Jeff Fisher in his second season to make
a run at a playoff berth.ARI, facing
the toughest home schedule but one of the easier road slates, has a shot at making
a Wild Card run with new QB Carson Palmer, but it seems that will also be a
longshot.

USING
2012 FINAL PERFORMANCE RANKINGS

TOTAL
SOS

MIN

200.0

1

BAL

215.0

2

GB

218.0

3

NO

223.0

4

NYG

232.0

5

DET

236.0

6

CLE

237.0

7

ATL

245.0

8

CHI

248.0

9

PHI

248.0

9

WAS

248.0

9

STL

250.0

12

ARI

251.0

13

NE

252.0

14

CIN

255.0

15

MIA

255.0

15

TB

256.0

17

CAR

264.0

18

NYJ

269.0

19

DAL

270.0

20

PIT

277.0

21

SF

280.0

22

BUF

283.0

23

OAK

283.0

23

TEN

284.0

25

KC

298.0

26

JAC

299.0

27

SEA

299.0

27

SD

303.0

29

IND

304.0

30

DEN

323.0

31

HOU

324.0

32

The second matrix shows 2013 SOS using my final 2012
Performance Ratings (which are discussed in previous entries including my
weekly entry during the season).This
version is also sorted in order of strength with MIN checking in at #1 (toughest)
and HOU #32 (easiest).You may notice in
the first matrix the bigger the total number the tougher the schedule (because
that was measured by opponent’s power rating; the higher the power rating the
tougher the team hence the bigger the number shaded grey the tougher the
schedule); in the second matrix it uses the Performance Ratings ranking – DEN was #1 in that last
season, so the smaller the number shaded grey the tougher the schedule.

When analyzing this data the one phenomenon that stands out
is some of the variances team by team between this matrix and the first
one.Here are some of the biggest jumps
either way:

·CLE +16 – to provide an explanation, key drivers
here are the fact CLE will face the AFC East this season, and three of those
four teams I have listed as being WEAKER in my initial 2013 Power Rankings than
they rated in my Performance Ratings LY: BUF was #17 in 2012 Performance
Ratings, but just #25 in my initial 2013 Power Rankings, NE #4/#6, NYJ
#21/#25.If you notice above all AFC
East teams are listed in this grouping because of that same reason.In addition they will face BAL twice this
season – the Ravens were #13 in my 2012 Performance Ratings but head into the
2013 season at #19 in my initial Power Rankings.

Down (easier):

·SD, SF (6)

·SEA (7)

·JAC (9)

·DAL (10)

·TB (13)

USING
2012 FINAL POWER RATINGS

TOTAL
SOS

NYG

373.0

1

BAL

358.4

2

MIN

351.3

3

NO

348.6

4

STL

347.1

5

ATL

346.6

6

ARI

344.8

7

TB

344.5

8

GB

341.4

9

CAR

341.0

10

DET

339.1

11

SF

338.4

12

NE

337.8

13

WAS

337.0

14

CHI

336.8

15

PHI

335.0

16

CLE

334.4

17

TEN

333.4

18

MIA

333.3

19

CIN

331.1

20

JAC

331.1

20

DAL

330.9

22

IND

330.5

23

PIT

328.5

24

BUF

327.8

25

SEA

327.0

26

KC

324.9

27

OAK

324.4

28

SD

323.3

29

HOU

318.0

30

DEN

305.8

31

NYJ

303.0

32

Up (meaning SOS measured by 2012 Final Power Ratings show
a stronger 2013 SOS versus using initial 2013 Power Ratings):

·BUF, NE, PIT, SF +4

·CAR +5

·CLE, MIA +6

·NO +9

Down (easier):

·SD, SEA (6)

·CHI, WAS (8)

·OAK (9)

·DAL (12)

BLENDED
SOS RANK

MIN

1

BAL

2

NYG

2

ATL

4

NO

5

GB

6

STL

7

ARI

8

DET

9

TB

9

WAS

9

CHI

12

PHI

13

CAR

14

NE

15

CLE

16

SF

17

DAL

18

CIN

19

MIA

20

TEN

21

JAC

22

OAK

23

PIT

24

SEA

24

BUF

26

IND

27

KC

27

SD

29

NYJ

30

HOU

31

DEN

32

This last matrix is perhaps the 2nd most
important in my eyes as it shows an equal weighting blended SOS for the
upcoming 2013 season using my initial 2013 Power Ratings, my final 2012 Power
Rankings and my final 2012 Performance Rankings.One last time let’s compare the blended SOS
ranks versus my initial 2013 Power Rankings SOS:

Up (meaning SOS measured by Blended SOS show a stronger
2013 SOS versus using initial 2013 Power Ratings):

·GB, MIA +5

·CLE +7

·NO +8

Down (easier):

·CHI, TB (5)

·SD (6)

·DAL (8)

At a high level we can define these shifts in SOS by either
my initial Power Ratings in 2013 show team’s opponents to be stronger and
having improved this past offseason compared to LY (the first grouping “up”),
or the opposite case where I have rated team’s opponents down and weaker than
LY (the second grouping).

What does it all mean?SOS is a good metric to analyze, in particular when placing season long win
total wagers, or selecting which teams may win a division because SOS can often
be the difference between making the playoffs or just barely missing (that is a
big reason we see an average of 5 new playoffs teams each season in the NFL –
the differences between the 6th and 20th teams in the NFL
is minor believe it or not).However, in
an overall sense, it is not overly important on a week to week basis; and you
must keep in mind these SOS figures will change by the week when Power Ratings
shift due to how well or poorly teams perform.

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