Today's revelations that Tony Blair and George W. Bush
debated staging an act of provocation to goad Saddam Hussein into war sends
a very clear warning as to how a pretext for a conflict with Iran could
be manufactured.

It was reported
today that Bush and Blair's 31 January White House meeting
was a rubber stamp on the decision to go to war, irrespective of whether
the United Nations had passed a new resolution authorizing the use of force.
However, this isn't the story. As far back as 1999, before he was even elected,
George W.
Bush told his biographer that he thought it was his political
destiny to invade Iraq.

The real story here is that Bush proposed flying a
U2 spy plane over Iraq and painting it in UN colors, therefore goading Saddam
to order the aircraft to be fired upon and resulting in a widespread UN
mandate for the war.

It is important to pause and underline the fact that
when we talk about Bush, we are really talking about the puppet masters
behind Bush. A man who has to ask
permission to use the little boys room isn't about to craft
any kind of war strategy.

To re-iterate, the US government considered staging
an act of provocation that would fool the world into supporting an unpopular
war.

This tactic is by no means new. The Gulf of Tonkin
incident, where US warships were apparently attacked by North Vietnamese
PT Boats, an incident that kicked off US involvement in the Vietnam war,
was a staged event that never actually took place. Declassified LBJ presidential tapes discuss how to spin the non-event
to escalate it as justification for air strikes and the NSA
faked intelligence data to make it appear as if two US ships
had been lost.

Operation
Northwoods, Pearl
Harbor and the attack on the USS
Liberty are other historical examples where the same method
of staged provocation was either considered or directly used in an attempt
to start a conflict.

In a more modern context, the Pentagon's P2OG
program was aimed at launching "secret operations aimed
at "stimulating reactions" among terrorists and states possessing
weapons of mass destruction, meaning it would prod terrorist cells into
action, thus exposing them to "quick-response" attacks by US forces.
"

Others would argue that the worldwide torture program
is another indirect method of provocation whereby radical Muslims would
be angered into increasing their attacks on US interests.

Judging by the history of attempts to provoke enemies
into appearing to strike first, we should be all the more wary that this
could be the pretext used to justify a war on Iran.

Appearing
on the Alex Jones Show, British Member of Parliament George
Galloway was asked whether he saw the possibility of the military-industrial
complex staging a terror attack to be blamed on Iran. Galloway responded
by saying that he thought it was "a very real danger."

Former UN weapons inspector Scott
Ritter and CIA analyst Ray
McGovern have also expressed their fears that a staged attack
is possible.

Russian Governor and former nuclear power plant manager
Pavel Ipatov today
stated that Iran was incapable of building a nuclear weapon.
Such an assertion was even backed
up by National Intelligence Director John Negroponte, who stated
that Iran simply does not have the material to produce nuclear bombs.

Even the CIA's own national intelligence estimate concluded
that Iran was at least ten
years away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear
weapon.

The International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors say
there is no evidence of a weapons program.

But they removed the seals! What about the seals!

Removing the seals was portrayed by the media as an
act of defiance, without considering for a moment that Iran voluntarily
put the seals on in the first place! Removing the seals doesn't mean that
Iran is going to produce a bomb five minutes later but the willful ignorance
surrounding this issue has artificially escalated tensions without recourse.

There is no evidence that Iran is producing a nuclear
weapon. They don't have the material to do so and even if they did, their
every action is under constant scrutiny. It would be like you or I trying
to manufacture a wristwatch with a piece of cloth while not being able to
use our arms or legs.

But Ahmadinejad said he wanted to wipe Israel off the
map!

There's no debating the fact that Ahmadinejad is not
the sharpest knife in the draw. However, such a comment needs to be taken
in context.

Firstly, there is no possible way Iran could invade
Israel. There are four routes to Israel, three are fortified with US troops
and the other by Turkish troops under US control.

Secondly, Iran invading Israel would be like Barney
the purple dinosaur waking up King Kong. The wrath of the US and Israel's
nuclear might would immediately rain down on Iran and turn it into a giant
car park.

Ahmadinejad's comments were a crude political points
scoring gimmick just like President Bush's "just bring 'em" quip
to Iraqi insurgents.

The warhawks and the media seem to be less concerned
about the fact that top Chinese general's like Zhu Chenghu are threatening
to nuke American cities.

Kim Jong-il, on an almost annual basis, threatens to
"destroy
the earth." Most analysts agree that North Korea already
has nuclear weapons but it goes unnoticed, even as North Korea fires dummy missiles that hit Alaska.

The end justifies the means. Iran has been targeted
for elimination and the bloodthirsty salivating PNAC crowd are going to
do everything they can to engineer a war, by fair means or foul.

The rivers of history and the alarm bells of today
should remind us all that a staged incident remains an omnipotent danger
as we accelerate further into 2006.

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