We're going to see inept offensive football -- my guess is defenses will really have the jump on offenses early in this strange year -- lots of special teams bloopers and a lot more injuries than anybody is comfortable addressing.

When the players show up some time after Monday -- when the agreement is likely to be ratified -- there's no way NFL teams can hope to make up for their lost summer.

Players didn't do any offseason conditioning under the auspices of their team's training staff, meaning they were left on their own to take care of business.

Players didn't have any organized team activities; teams are allowed up to 14 sessions, with most going to that limit.

Even if we assume that teams will have a full preseason -- and that's very much up in the air with the players having not yet voted on the collective-bargaining agreement -- it's safe to assume the quality of play will suffer.

One, there will be more injuries than ever before. While I would expect most players to show up in good shape -- especially Indianapolis Colts players, who are experienced and very professional -- there still will be those who didn't quite grind it out every day of the summer. We will see groin strains, calf pulls and problems with all kinds of body parts.

Two, the rookies will make less impact their first year than any class before them. Ordinarily, young guys like Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana could come in and immerse themselves in the summer activities, then show up ready to hit the ground running in training camp. That's not going to happen this year. Good news for Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem, bad news for the rookies and for Colts general manager Chris Polian, who's trying to manage the salary cap.

Three, the undrafted free agents will make less impact than ever before.

In a normal year, NFL teams could use the post-draft period to bring in the likes of Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt, get them acclimated through all the minicamps and OTAs, then watch them bloom and become productive (and cheap) players right away.

This is not a normal year. Undrafted free agents are still out there, waiting for the CBA to be signed by both parties. When these young players show up, they'll have about 10 minutes to get up to speed. Unless the Colts hit pay dirt, I wouldn't expect their undrafted free agents to have the impact they've had in the past.

Throw in the possibility that two-a-days will be forbidden by the new CBA, and that's even less practice time for young players.

Last season, when there was talk of an 18-game regular season and a possible cutback on OTAs and other summer work, quarterback Peyton Manning reacted strongly.

"To me, you take away the offseason program and you are asking for some bad football, I think,'' he said.

Now it's clear there won't be an 18-game regular season, but this entire summer has been bagged.

"You're asking for guys that aren't going to be ready to play,'' Manning said last season. "If you don't have offseason and OTAs, I think you're asking for bad football. . . . Maybe I'm old school or old-fashioned, but offseason is still where it is at to me. It's how you become a better player, how you improve your craft. It's kind of insulting to the professions that you can just show up and just be able to play, especially at a high level. That's what I have a real concern about.''

There's ample reason to be concerned.

A lost summer will mean a lost fall; the play, from top to bottom in this league, will surely suffer.

Now, from a local perspective, it's not the worst thing in the world. I would expect that the Colts, and teams like the Colts -- the Packers, Patriots, etc. -- will emerge from this interminable lockout in far better shape than their competitors. They have veterans. They have professionals.

On the flip side, this will be murder on first-year coaching staffs and teams who are counting on rookie quarterbacks. Tennessee. Carolina. Cincinnati. Good luck, boys. Eight of 32 teams will have new coaches, and roughly 14 of 32 will go into the season without being set at quarterback.

When this whole foolish thing is finally settled, the damage will be done. It will be great to have football back, even greater to know that Indy's Super Bowl is back on target for Feb. 5, but it will be a strange and challenging year.

Here comes a whole lot of bad football.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Email this article

Kravitz: After 'lost summer,' NFL will be ugly, but that could help Colts

Whenever this lockout ends, the bottom line on the early part of the 2011 NFL season remains the same: We're going to see some bad football.