SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell on Wednesday to their lowest settlement in nearly six weeks, pressured in part by a strength in the U.S. dollar, but the metal found support at $1,300 an ounce on signs of strong demand from China and indications the European Central Bank may support more economic stimulus measures.

Gold for April delivery
US:GCJ4
fell $8, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,303.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange after a session low of $1,300.90. Prices, which edged up by 20 cents on Tuesday, haven’t fallen under the $1,300 level since Feb. 13.

“As gold nears the $1,300 mark for the first time in more than a month, an uneventful news cycle gives traders little to speculate on through their emotional buying and selling of the precious metal,” said Jonathan Citrin, founder and executive chairman at CitrinGroup. “During this reprieve, focus in the market shifted to longer-term forecasts with many doubting the ability for a price rise in 2014.”

For this year, analysts at research firm CPM Group said late Tuesday that prices for gold are likely to average $1,256.77 an ounce, down nearly 11% from last year, and net private investment in the metal is expected to fall nearly 31% year on year to 21.4 million ounces, according to an article from Platts.

But the metals market has also seen strong demand signals. Analysts at Commerzbank said in a note that a surprisingly large rise in Chinese imports helped push the metal higher and should also provide support later in the year.

Data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government showed on Tuesday that net imports in February to China from the former British colony totaled 112.3 tons, marking the highest level since October and nearly twice as high as in the same month one year ago.

Chinese authorities in January granted more banks a license to import gold, helping meet the high gold demand of the Chinese population.

“Were China to maintain this tempo for the remainder of the year, last year’s record level (1,158 tons) could be achieved. China is thus likely to have contributed to the increase in the gold price in February — when gold rose by 6.6% — and will in our opinion remain an important crutch for the gold price as the year progresses,” Commerzbank analysts said.

Stimulus talk

Signals from central banks globally about more monetary easing could provided further support for gold prices.

Comments from European Central Bank officials indicated their willingness toward supporting more stimulus measures to aid the regional economy. “This is very gold positive, as it signals that the next crisis really is one of creating growth in Europe,” said Julian Phillips, founder of and contributor to GoldForecaster.com. Meanwhile, analysts say they also expected Chinese officials will try to stimulate the China economy.

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“The dollar looks to be forming a bullish flag as it consolidates the two day price pop. If our analysis is correct and the dollar continues higher short term ... gold should continue to correct,” said Ken Ford, founding partner at Warwick Valley Financial Advisors.

“Those investors that had patience and didn’t chase prices in January and February have now got their buying opportunity, but may want to wait a little longer till the U.S. dollar rally has run its course,” he said, adding that he remains positive on the price of gold longer term.

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