Colorado could see more infectious disease, negative impacts on the elderly and people living in poverty, as well as stresses to water, cattle and crops as byproducts of future climate change, according to a comprehensive new report commissioned by the Colorado Energy Office.

"The important takeaway is, here's what's important to Colorado," said Eric Gordon, co-lead editor of the 176-page report and managing director of the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado. "We're not talking about things that have nothing to do with us, like sea level rise. This is what's important to Colorado and what we should be worrying about."

The exhaustive report includes chapters devoted to seven separate sectors where the state might show vulnerability to climate change — ecosystems, water, agriculture, energy, transportation, outdoor recreation and public health.

Dennis Ojima, co-lead editor of the report and a professor in the Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Department at Colorado State University, noted the degree to which each of those sectors can be seen as intertwined with the others.

For example, Ojima said, "In a warmer climate, we need more irrigation and more energy to support that, and more air conditioning in our area in the summer requires more energy, but also more water for cooling. These multiple constraints start occurring when you start looking at the whole state of the system."

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Among noteworthy findings of the report:

• Climate projections show that Colorado's springtime mountain snowpack will likely decline by 2050, with potential impacts on late-season skiing. Spring runoff season may also be earlier and shorter, which could affect rafting.

•The state's reservoirs can provide buffering against some expected increases in water demand and decreases in flow, but entities with junior rights or little storage are especially vulnerable to future low flows.

•Rising temperatures, heat waves and droughts can reduce crop yield and slow cattle weight gain. Colorado farmers and ranchers are already accustomed to large natural swings in weather and climate but may find it particularly hard to deal with expected changes in water resources.

•The report, presuming a conservative level of future greenhouse gas emissions, nevertheless forecasts a 2.5- to 5.5-degree increase in statewide temperatures by mid-century, relative to a 1971-2000 baseline. Also, Colorado will be more prone to extreme precipitation events in winter, but not necessarily during the summer.

The report states that impacts on public health are complex and hard to anticipate, but climbing temperatures may mean more frequent episodes of bad air quality and more common heatstroke, plague, West Nile virus and hantavirus.

Temperatures in Colorado have been rising, especially in summer, and that trend is expected to continue, along with increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and wildfire.

Even public schools in many Front Range cities are vulnerable to these changes, the report stated. Historically, schools in the state have not often required cooling, so many do not have air-conditioned classrooms.

Boulder County, in fact, is spending $37.7 million from a $576.5 million construction bond issue passed in November to provide air conditioning to eight schools that don't have it (five of which hold summer sessions).

"This first-ever state-specific synthesis of existing information on how climate change may affect us here will be very valuable to the state government, to local governments, and indeed to all Coloradans," Saunders said. "Now, the question is, how do we use this report to move forward?"

Saunders added, "The report itself points to the importance of preparedness actions by the state government, local governments and others to reduce our risks of future impacts. We believe those state government actions should include both a comprehensive state-government-wide preparedness plan, and specific actions by individual state agencies to factor climate change risks into their plans and management actions."

In its concluding chapter, titled "Moving Toward Preparedness," the report cites the Boulder County Climate Change Preparedness Plan for its overarching principles and suggests they should be integrated into "all forms of planning" to provide resilience in the face of future climate impacts.

Some of those principles are ensuring flexibility, removing barriers to adaptation, recognizing the need for leadership and collaboration, plus preparing for multiple possible climate futures.

"Boulder County has stood up and said, 'We are trying to be forward-thinking and proactive about this,'" said Gordon, who is also a co-author on the county preparedness plan, prepared by Stratus Consulting of Boulder. "This is just my personal observation, but that's reflective of a mindset in the county and the city. We want to try to be ahead of the curve in terms of preparing ourselves for the future.

"Boulder County has done a really commendable job of getting on top of that. It's not the only place in the state," Gordon said, naming Denver and Aspen as similarly focused on building their resiliency.

Susie Strife, sustainability coordinator for Boulder County, said the county plan was adopted — in conjunction with the city of Boulder — in late 2012, making it one of the first communities in the intermountain West to address climate change vulnerabilities and response strategies.

Calling climate change preparedness a "centerpiece issue," Strife wrote in an email, "We have made a commitment to address global climate change at the local level by trying to achieve aggressive short- and long-term greenhouse gas emissions-reduction goals, as well as think about ways to adapt to the impacts of climate change."

With bad Colorado fires in 2012 and the devastating Front Range flood of September 2013, Strife added that people are starting to "make the connection" that climate change does have local impacts — even hundreds of miles from the nearest ocean.

"Rather than simply trying to anticipate future changes, a 'resilient' county and its municipalities consider the likelihood and possibility of a number of possible future impacts and make operations, planning, and management flexible enough to avoid major disruptions from climate change," Strife said.

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