Wednesday, January 26, 2011

[UFO] Disclosure as a Zero Sum Game

In 1947 mathematicians Von Neumann and Morgenstern published a book on the theory of games. One premise of this book was that mathematics could be applied to the study of social relations in the form of a game. It was not intended to oversimplify complex social interactions but an attempt to analyze relatively simple aspects of that interaction. One concept that was introduced in the book was the zero-sum game. A zero-sum game is one in which the sum of all the payoffs in the game is zero. Whatever is won by one player is lost by the other and vice-versa. For example, if one player ‘wins’ a point, the other player loses a point. The total number of points available to win or lose does not change and therefore the net sum of those points is always the same - zero. The interaction of the players, or the play of the game, results in a differential of points but the sum remains zero. Each payoff is considered to have some utility (benefit) to a player. Utilities can be perceived as large or small advantages. In a mathematical analysis, points can be assigned to utilities. If the game is played well both players are using a rational strategy to minimize losing large point utilities to the opponent. If the game is played with this optimum strategy by both players, the game is said to be in equilibrium. That does not mean neither player is winning, it means the point difference is staying, relatively, the same.

The on-going interaction some of us have had with our governments on the question of the UFO phenomena could be viewed as a social game as described above. As long as there is no public confirmation about the reality of the UFO phenomenon by world governments (especially ours) the game goes on and there are no absolute winners or losers. The government is risking some loss in government confidence by the populace [not much of a risk]. As for our side, we are risking ridicule, our jobs, and our reputations. I am not suggesting that we do a math analysis to quantify this game at this point (it is not outside the realm of possibility to do such an analysis). However, it may be worthwhile to look at the game we are playing in terms of some of these concepts.

Let us start with some premises. Let us suppose that there is a cabal (a secret organization populated by government intelligence agents and special civilian advisors) keeping the major cache of actual UFO related information. Many of us are convinced that our government and other governments have been withholding this information from the public by means of the highest secrecy. Let us also suppose that there is a group called Conscientious and Dedicated UFO Investigation Team (CONDUIT) who is intent on revealing the truth of the secrets on UFOs held by the cabal. Let us further make a huge leap of faith that these investigators are working in concert with each other and have drawn very similar conclusions about the phenomenon and the cabal. Then, we might consider this a game in play between two players.

Let us say that each side has some ‘tactics’ available for use in this game. These can be applied such as moves in a game of chess. Effective tactics for our side might include: obtaining and publicizing credible witness testimony or documents, conducting investigations of incidents, mainstream media coverage, rigorous review of historical records, or performing scientific analysis on possible artifacts. Effective tactics for their side might include: Operate a disinformation campaign, ‘rational’ explanations of incidents, silence on incidents, infiltration of UFO groups to disrupt them or gain information, promote ridicule of the phenomenon, etc. The planning and execution for the use of these tactics would constitute an effective strategy play in this game. The optimum strategy for each side will be revealed the more times, or the longer the game is played.

For the sake of argument, let’s say we have been playing this game since the Roswell incident in 1947. At that point, the Army Air Force first said they recovered a saucer and then retracted that claim. The cabal may have had its origins as a result of that incident because by deciding to lie about it, they established a need for withholding the truth of the details of such events from the public. Their initial tactics were to maintain a high level of secrecy through the intimidation of witnesses and to compartmentalize the information to a select few. The public would be given a false ‘cover’ story to placate the media (Cabal tactics: disinformation, intimidation and silence). CONDUIT may have joined the game ten days earlier with the sighting of saucer shaped craft by Ken Arnold over Mt. Rainier in Washington. With these two initial major stories, the public became interested in the possibility of alien visitors again. This was not some fear-based interest like the ‘alien scare’ of 1938 with the false radio broadcast of War of the Worlds. These were two valid reports by respected witnesses. Subsequently, UFO groups like Aerial Phenomenon Research Organization (APRO - 1952) and National Investigations Committee on Aerial Phenomenon (NICAP- 1957) began forming to investigate the phenomena. (Our tactics: trying to make serious studies of reported incidents and accumulation of witness testimonies) The game was on.

The Cabal has the Advantage in this Game

The cabal had the advantage in this game from the beginning. Assuming they had the craft and the bodies, more importantly they had the experience and means of organizing and running highly secretive operations. The U.S. government had just successfully completed one of the most extensive and complex secret projects in history; the development of the atomic bomb. 1947 was also the year the CIA was established as a federal agency. The CIA was staffed with agents that were already very experienced in the world of maintaining secrets, dis-information, spying, coercion of witnesses and command and control of the extensive network of clandestine operations that certainly could be utilized.

The CONDUIT puts on pressure to investigate

Initially, our side was struggling just to make sense of the occasional UFO reports that would be reported in the paper or by other occasional witnesses with the courage to come forward. Very quickly, however the phenomenon became the subject of ridicule or science fiction. It was easier for the public to make light of the rumored sightings and visits by “little green men” than to take it seriously. But after the mass sighting of Washington DC in 1952, our government was forced to take a more serious stance on the subject. The Robertson Panel, initiated by the CIA was convened in secret in 1953 to look into the UFO question (although the end result was to initiate a dis-information campaign). The Air Force established project “Sign” to take reports of the phenomenon in late 1947 and followed by project Blue Book. What neither side in this game could predict was what sighting or event would happen next. In the early 60’s, the Betty and Barney Hill abduction case became known. After that, more witnesses came forward with their own abduction stories. CONDUIT was being helped by more reports of incidents but the Cabal could use the offsetting tactics of disinformation, deflate/inflate the facts and promote ridicule.

In March 1966 near Dexter, Michigan a number of police officers and radar operators at Selfridge AFB observed four UFOs. This mass sighting led to a clamor for a government investigation of the incident. Congressman Gerald Ford called for an investigation into the entire phenomenon. Within months, the Air Force agreed to have an independent body conduct a ‘scientific’ investigation. In August 1966 The University of Colorado was awarded $500,000 to conduct this investigation. This was another use of the tactic of deception by the Cabal. The Condon Investigation was a sham that was never intended to get to the bottom of the UFO question (cabal tactic: give the appearance of trying to publicly investigate the phenomenon while continuing the disinformation campaign). In 1969 The Condon investigation report declared there was no national security interest in the investigation of UFO reports. The Air Force used these pre-ordained results to stop official investigations of UFO sightings.

The Cabal Regains the Advantage

After the Condon report, there were no official investigations of UFO sightings. CONDUIT was left to its own resources for identifying and investigating UFO reports. Some of these reports, of course seemed fantastic and others were manufactured by the Cabal to promote public skepticism. In addition, the aspect of the phenomenon of abduction (by extra-terrestrial aliens) became more pronounced during the 1980’s and 1990’s as more witnesses came forward. The public and media perception of the phenomenon again leaned toward ridicule and disbelief.

The CONDUIT rallies

In 1978 one of the CONDUIT started an investigation that would shake the Cabal. Nuclear propulsion scientist Stanton Freidman who had become interested in the truth of the UFO phenomena interviewed retired Air Force Major Jesse Marcel. Marcel was an intelligence officer at the Air Force base near Roswell, New Mexico in July 1947 when he inspected the crashed remains of ‘flying saucer’. From this initial disclosure, much has been written and many witnesses have come forward to testify as to the events. So much interest resulted in these reports that the Air Force found it necessary to re-visit the incident with their own ‘investigation’. In 1994 they issued a report stating that they verified the crashed debris was simply that of a weather balloon. In 1995 they amended that story and claimed that the balloon was actually used as a vehicle for spying on the Soviet nuclear program activities. However, the Roswell incident has now been widely accepted because of the large number of witnesses that have come forward supporting the basic story told by Major Marcel.

In 1997 hundreds of people reported seeing a huge object flying over the Phoenix, Arizona area. The witnesses of this event include the ex-governor of the state. To date, this sighting has not been credibly challenged by the government.

In 2001 a large group of civilian and ex-military witnesses held a press conference in Washington DC disclosing more credible reports of UFO encounters. I am proud to say I was one of those witnesses. Again, these disclosures have not been credibly challenged by our government.

In 2007 and again in 2010, more credible ex-military witnesses, including those from other nations came together in press conferences to disclose their UFO encounters at military bases.

The State of Play

Today the Cabal and the CONDUIT are still engaged in this zero-sum game. Although the CABAL continues to use the tactics of silence, ridicule, dis-information and media control, it could be argued they are becoming less effective in the battle for public opinion. Silence in the face of mounting evidence to the reality of the phenomenon cannot remain a viable government response indefinitely. The witness intimidating effects of ridicule can remain effective if CONDUIT players continue to promote questionable stories or speculative opinions, or unsupported claims. These mis-guided activities make it easier for the media to promote the ridicule that has haunted the accurate reporting on the subject.

Recently, positive outcomes (‘utilities’) have accrued to CONDUIT in this game. On September 27, 2010, I and Robert Hastings successfully organized a press conference in Washington DC. During this event, seven of us former military produced testimony and documentation to support the reality of UFO incidents at nuclear weapons bases. This reality flies in the face of U.S. Air Force claims that “No UFO reported, investigated and evaluated by the Air Force was ever an indication of threat to our national security”, as stated in the official Air Force policy on UFOs. The Air Force has yet to respond to our statements of fact. The longer they maintain their silence on this matter, the greater credibility our position takes in the mind of the public. The impact of our press conference resulted in a great deal of press and media coverage. The video of the conference is now being shown in many parts of the world. They can maintain their silence on the matter in the short term, but if that silence continues, our side will continue to have the momentum in this game. In addition, Wikileaks has informed the public that they are in possession of documents that point to on-going government investigation and knowledge of the UFO phenomenon. Therefore, we can anticipate the release of more validating documents. Also, due to previous witness testimony, other witnesses will continue to come forward at a faster rate. There are indications that we are out-growing this game.

The zero-sum game is an ‘enclosed’ game where no one emerges from the enclosure to declare himself the winner. This kind of game is ideal for governments to play with the public where they are attempting to hold secrets. It is ideal for the UFO secrets cover-up. But it seems to me that this game is now evolving toward and end-game. If we can achieve government disclosure, the score will no longer be a zero-sum.

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