i'm a guy that likes learning about the weather! planning on taking an atmospheric and oceanic science program at mcgill university soon, hoping to become a research scientist and an advocate for climatology and scientific skepticism.

Personal Info

an uncanny otter

Rank: F5 Superstorm

21years old

Male

Hamilton, Ontario

BornDec-5-1993

Interests

i'm interested in climatology and meteorology - obviously!

other sciences i enjoy include astronomy, theoretical physics and chemistry.

an uncanny otter

Although we still have more than 3 months left of 2011, we're in a relatively unactive and boring phase right now. Since the storms of September 3, we've been stuck in a relatively cool, wet and rainy pattern and little active weather.

So I thought this would be a good time to recount some of the most memorable weather events of 2011 in your area so far. 2011 has been a year of extremes across the globe, and Canadian weather has been no exception.

There are a few particular things that really stand out about 2011 to me:

-We received our snowiest February on record in February 2011. During that month, over 85 cm of snow fell at the Windsor airport, with similar totals recorded imby. We had four major snowstorms hit us during that month, and it will be a winter month I'll never forget, setting the standard in my county for record snow. What made it even better was that December and January were relatively dry and snow-free, and February made up for it in spades.

-The Groundhog Day blizzard, although underperforming for most of us in Ontario, was still an extremely powerful and memorable storm. The winds gusted to over 100 km/h imby, and despite being primarily a sleet storm, a surprise burst of lake-effect later in the day resulted in my area's highest 24-hour snow total of the winter (26 cm.)

-Many areas in Ontario, including mine, received our wettest spring on record. From March 1 to May 31, Windsor recorded over 450 mm of precipitation. The wet spring was devastating for farmers, with some declaring that it was their worst spring ever. Many crops had their planting delayed by several weeks.

-April 2011 was a particularly active and varied month in Ontario. It seemed to be raining or cloudy nearly every day, with below-average temperatures dominating. However, on April 10, the temperature shot up to a mild (and gorgeous!) 27*C, with the humidex reaching into the 30s. A week later, temperatures plunged, and we received a late-season snowstorm on April 18, with 4 cm of snow recorded imby. Not a huge total, but impressive considering how late it happened.

-The rainiest day of the year occurred on May 25 in Chatham-Kent. Three rounds of heavy thunderstorms rolled through that day - one in the morning, and two in the afternoon - resulting in over 100 mm of rain falling. It caused widespread minor flooding across my area, including many flooded roads and yards.

-On the morning of June 7, a surprise MCS plowed through much of southern Ontario. My area doesn't receive hail very much, but I was shaken awake by the sound of thunder and strong winds. When I looked outside, I was surprised to see the largest hail my town's received in years, with the largest imby being 3 cm wide. Was also the most damaging storm of the year in my area.

-July 2011 was Windsor's hottest month on record, and perhaps the hottest month recorded in Canadian history. It was relentlessly hot and humid across eastern Canada, culminating on July 21 when the humidex reached a blistering 50*C in Windsor and Toronto.

-The thunderstorm outbreak of August 24 was a legendary event for millions of people across Ontario, with tornado watches and warnings issued in every county west of Toronto. For my area, it was the same story as most other places - the most incredible lightning show I've ever seen.

Share your weather stories of 2011! It's been a crazy year from coast-to-coast, and since nothing exciting is occurring right now, we might as well talk about something.

Summer may be dying down, and along it the frequency of severe weather outbreaks. However, as the heat and humidity builds back into Ontario by the weekend, along with it is the possibility of late-season thunderstorms.

It's a Day 4 risk map, so it's still quite far out, but the potential is certainly there for some strong thunderstorms to break out in southern Ontario.

...DISCUSSION... RELATIVE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REVIEWED FOR THIS FORECAST SUGGEST SOMEWHAT HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION ON D4/SATURDAY INTO D5/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RESULTING LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS WARMING AND MOIST AIRMASS. THE AREA DEPICTED FOR D4 IS THE REGION WHERE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE QPF WILL COINCIDE WITH A MEAN MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS ALOFT.

THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY THAT SEGMENT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS IS MORE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND D4...A WIDE DISPARITY IN MODEL SCENARIOS BEGINS TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WITH EVOLUTION OF GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE FORECASTS...UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS HIGH. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 00Z NCEP MREF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL GENERALLY ACT TO SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

...GREAT LAKES INTO UPPER OH VALLEY... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING INTO MN BY 02/12Z...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER MN/WI/UPPER MI TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK INTO LOWER MI. CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED SEVERE MCS TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OH AND WESTERN PA DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.