Sports Kibblehttp://www.sportskibble.com
My little thoughts on the world of sportsMon, 14 Aug 2017 04:05:42 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.1A Black Eye for the Little League World Serieshttp://www.sportskibble.com/a-black-eye-for-the-little-league-world-series/
http://www.sportskibble.com/a-black-eye-for-the-little-league-world-series/#respondMon, 14 Aug 2017 00:37:47 +0000http://www.sportskibble.com/?p=537No, this is not a post that is going to analyze 11-13 year old kids. I am waiting for the day that a sabermatrician decides to look at the world of Little League Baseball and comes up with metrics on how George Washington Intermediate School in Boston, Massachusetts can attack hitters from the upstart Billings Little League in Montana to secure a spot in the championship game. I hope that day doesn't come, but I do need to be a realist: We are probably less than a decade away before we know EXACTLY how to pitch that 5'6" Little League version of Aaron Judge to get him out every time.

The Little League World Series has come a long way, especially since ESPN saw it as a good way to add some money to their treasure chest. I don't criticize them for this. To be exact, it probably helps grow the game of baseball around the country and around the globe. Although the odds are strongly against any kid actually making it to the grand Little League stage in Williamsport, the dream of making it there is probably a dream that has a little kid outside playing catch with his father as I type this. I would venture to guess that at least a small percentage of children who sign up for Little League every year do so based on watching the games play out on television. The adage that "If those kids can accomplish that, why can't I?"

The road to the Little League World Series always has its bumps, however. We have seen teams field ineligible players (Danny Almonte, anyone? Can you believe that kid is now 30 years old?). We have seen organizations field teams that go outside the boundaries of where they are legally supposed to recruit players.

However, one of the worst things a coach can do, in my opinion, is not play by the rules when it comes to playing time. I can believe a coach that says they didn't purposely place an ineligible kid on the field. I can believe a coach who says they didn't realize a player was slightly outside of the "boundary" he was allowed to choose players from. However, when a coach purposely doesn't use a player in a game because their World Series life is on the line, that takes it too far for my taste. That is what the coach of New Hampshire's Little League representative did this week. Instead of playing by the rule that every kid on the roster must get at least one AB in a game, he instead let his regulars hit when his team was down in the game. My first thought upon reading this was that the Little League rules would not allow this to occur at all. If a coach is found in violation of a rule, the game is a forfeit. That may not be fair to the entire team, but how is it fair to the other team that played by the rules if they were to lose to a team that didn't? Rather, the rule simply suspends the coach for two games for the violation. That's it. You get to sit out two games, which is meaningless. It isn't like the team loses their coaching staff entirely. They just lose the head coach.

Should the rule be tougher? Of course it should be. However, even if the rule was nothing more than getting doused by an ice bucket, it is still a slimy way to coach a Little League game. If I were running whoever it is that runs the New Hampshire Little League, I wouldn't let this man coach a game ever again. I get it: Sometimes it is hard to find adults who are willing to take a few hours out of their day to coach a Little League team. I commend all adults who do it, and it is a selfless way to help mold young boys and girls into future adults. I will give him credit for that much, though the final lesson he is really teaching is how to circumvent the rules for our own gratification.

His excuse after the game was that he gave the kid a chance to bat in the 4th inning, but he declined to hit. Let us again throw away all common sense and give him the benefit of the doubt: A kid who worked hard his entire life to be on this grand stage of the Little League World Series suddenly decides "You know what, coach? I have the sniffles, and don't want to bat today." If this is true (uh huh), we now have to say that a coach cared so much about the well-being of this child that he simply said "OK, you don't want to play for some reason, so just sit there and we will play without you." How does this make any sense? If you think he isn't feeling well, why not notify the parents that their boy is sick? Why not notify the parents that their kid, someone who loves to play baseball apparently, suddenly doesn't want to play anymore? Wouldn't this alarm a coach enough to raise a big red flag, and not just accept it at face value? It doesn't pass any smell test, except for the one that stinks to high heaven.

Little League Baseball is supposed to be fun. Yes, winning and losing is important to everyone. It was important to me when I played. It was important for bragging rights the next day in school or in the schoolyard. Kids at that age start to understand that the score is being kept, and if yours is lower than the one the other team has, you lose. You will still get your bag of Fritos, but you lose.

However, even with the winning and the losing, comes the spirit of fair play. When kids start to play at the high school level, they begin to understand that not all kids get to play in every game. (Heck, in Little League, they learn rejection because not every kid who tries out for the travel teams make it to the roster) But those who do make it expect to play. There is no gray area: If you have a uniform on, you are getting into the game, regardless if you are the team's home run leader or if you are a bench player. (Let me make this point as well: As I just wrote, these kids are chosen from a group. All of them are good baseball players for their age.)

Many Little League coaches don't coach for long. Their son or daughter plays for 3-4 years in the league. After that, most fathers quit coaching the Little League squad and move on. That is why the consequences for this coach are likely zero. I don't know what his coaching situation is, but if he is like most, he probably won't be coaching next year anyway. Stripping him of his ability to coach in the future likely does nothing to discourage his behavior.

This is why Little League needs to protect adults from themselves: If you don't play by the rules, the team loses. If there are 2 outs in the 6th inning and Little Johnny has yet to step foot in the batter box, he must hit. If he doesn't, game over. Unfair to the rest of the kids? Certainly. But that is why organizations need to hire coaches they know who will play it fair, regardless of the situation. This particular coach should be ashamed of himself.

]]>http://www.sportskibble.com/a-black-eye-for-the-little-league-world-series/feed/0MLB: The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez “Problem”http://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-the-yankees-gary-sanchez-problem/
http://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-the-yankees-gary-sanchez-problem/#respondSun, 06 Aug 2017 03:12:25 +0000http://www.sportskibble.com/?p=531If you didn’t catch it on Friday night, Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi called out Gary Sanchez for his high number of passed balls this season. A team that is fumbling its way over the past few months of the season has found its scapegoat: A young catcher who is allowing, on average, one passed ball per week. It is important to note that one passed ball per week is not good for a Major League catcher. This is not defending Gary’s issues with catching the ball lately as much as it has to do with some misguided frustration towards the wrong player.

The Yankees won on Saturday night, though it was once again not due to their offense. Their 2-1 squeaker was mostly the byproduct of great pitching by Jordan Montgomery and three relievers. This is not a bad thing. At this time of the year, you take every win you can get by any means you can get. However, the offense remains in a state of hibernation. Chase Headley rescued the entire team with his timely 8th inning home run.

So, why are the Yankees focusing on Sanchez, when many on the squad have run into walls as the season has gone along? Are there reasons that we, as fans, are not seeing? That is quite possibly the case, given his history.

When Sanchez was in the minor leagues, he had a documented case or two of not hustling. His attitude problem become a bit of a story line on its own, and his less than stellar performance (which I thought was a bit overblown) caused him to drop off of Top 100 Prospect lists. To be exact, on mlb.com, they dropped him off of the list of the top ten catchers in baseball. Some of this could have been “prospect fatigue” – Sanchez was talked about forever since he was signed as a teenager and almost instantly became a hot-shot prospect. After years of waiting for him to bloom, evaluators may have just moved onto the next flavor of the month. It happens. Some of it could have also been this attitude issue that lead to multiple run-ins with minor league managers.

When I see stuff like this, I instantly think about how I was (and how most people are) when they are in their late teens into their early 20’s. I was a relatively tame person during those years, but still did stuff that I would never do again now that I am in my 40s. Imagine being a hot-shot prospect that is constantly under the spotlight. All of your shortcomings with your immaturity are going to rise to the surface, and it is up to the minor league managers and veteran players to help tame the kid and keep him focused.

This may explain why Girardi has been more willing to call out Sanchez than he normally would any other player. It could be that the organizational philosophy on Gary is that sometimes he needs to be refocused to get his head back into the game. I don’t necessarily agree with the approach of calling him out during a media session, but if Sanchez still needs the occasional reminder to get his focus back, I have no problem with the coaching staff being tougher on him in general. This is especially true if these methods worked in the minors.

This is just speculation. I have no idea how Sanchez is taking to instruction. He might be out there all afternoon working on technique, for all I know. Brian Cashman has also brought up that Gary may have bulked up a bit too much in the off-season, and that cost him some mobility behind the plate. This is not necessarily permanent: He could just need time to adjust to his new body. He could just need to cut back next winter on bulking up. Jorge Posada had a similar philosophy during his career: Bulk up during the winter, because he knew that by the time the season was coming to an end that most of that bulking up will have faded away. Catchers need to maintain their strength for 162 games with all of the wear-and-tear their bodies take behind the dish. If you report to spring training a bit too lean, it could threaten your stamina later in the season. Sanchez may need to find the perfect balance.

The headline for this post was intentionally misleading. The Yankees don’t really have a Gary Sanchez problem. He is still above average throwing out potential basestealers (35%, 10th in all of baseball), even if he isn’t doing it at the insane rate he did last year. Pitch-framing seems to indicate he is pretty good at that technique. His 4.0 framing runs (using Baseball Prospectus) ranks him 13th in all of baseball. His overall 3.0 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) ranks him 15th. Are these numbers great? No. Are they solid for a catcher with Sanchez’ offense abilities? Yes. The passed balls are an issue, as are some of the wild pitches he has been unable to stop or keep in front of him. I am not going to doubt that, but his overall defensive picture is not poor.

Turning to the offense, among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances (Sanchez does not qualify for the rate statistics due to his injury earlier this season), he ranks 3rd in offensive fWAR, behind Buster Posey and J.T. Realmuto. The advanced metrics rank him very high offensively among all catchers in baseball. He is in the top five in most of the important offensive categories, and is in the top three in many of them. This is not a player having a bad season – this is a player who is one of the most valuable players on the roster.

All young players have their rough edges – Sanchez came into the league last season and had instant success. Teams started to study him more, and have been able to keep him off of a 65 home run pace in 2017. Anyone who is surprised by this hasn’t followed the game for long: Teams and pitchers adjust. Sanchez needs to adjust back, and he has done a solid job of that for the most part.

His defensive issues are all fixable. Most of what can be fixed will be done through experience. Pulling him from the starting catcher role is counterproductive. He can only do so much in side sessions. He has to figure it out within game situations. Given his overall talent, I think he will be able to work through the issues he has – he may never be great at blocking pitches. He may always have a tendency to let a catchable ball or two get by him. Nobody should expect Johnny Bench II. We also shouldn’t expect him to become a catcher in name only. He is going to be a net positive behind the plate. The only question we should really have is just how much of a net positive he will be.

]]>http://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-the-yankees-gary-sanchez-problem/feed/0MLB: The Career of Adrian Beltrehttp://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-the-career-of-adrian-beltre/
http://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-the-career-of-adrian-beltre/#respondMon, 31 Jul 2017 01:43:25 +0000http://www.sportskibble.com/?p=527Mike Schmidt. No third baseman in the history of baseball can quite compare to what Schmidt did in his career for the Philadelphia Phillies. He is the only third baseman in history to amass over 100 career WAR. He led the National League in home runs eight times, runs batted in four times, OPS five times, and OPS+ six times, including five seasons in a row. Sometimes, we lump Hall of Fame players into two categories: Those who dominated over a period of five or so years (Sandy Koufax, for example) and those who compiled numbers over the course of a long career (think Phil Niekro). Schmidt was a Hall of Fame player who did both – he compiled the big numbers while also putting together stretches of dominance over the course of five or more seasons.

This post is not about Adrian Beltre overtaking Mike Schmidt, because anybody with a brain can see that he isn’t even close. However, this post is to show just how close Beltre is to being the second best player all-time at the position. While he is probably behind the likes of Eddie Mathews, he can at least be lumped into other contenders like Chipper Jones, George Brett, and Brooks Robinson. Beltre’s career is one of the most underrated careers in recent memory. A player who started building major accomplishments in the age of social media, and yet has been unable to really generate much of a trend on Twitter. Part of that is due to baseball’s inability to market their players. Part of it is because Beltre himself has hardly been flashy, even if his recent ejection for moving the on-base circle was one of the best moments I have seen in a decade.

Beltre recorded his 3,000th hit today. While some may say that automatically puts him in the Hall of Fame, that actually diminishes what Beltre is. He didn’t need 3,000 hits to get into the Hall of Fame – it is just another gold star to add to the collection.

Beltre’s career is interesting in that he spent the first dozen years (his prime!) playing in pitcher’s ballparks in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those 12 seasons, he hit .270/.325/.453 (105 OPS+) in 6,877 plate appearances. He had one monster year (2004, when he lead the league with 48 home runs for Los Angeles). He would end up second in the MVP vote, the highest he would ever get in that voting. With 1,700 hits after his age-30 season, it didn’t seem like he was going to be threatening 3,000 hits or the Hall of Fame. He seemed destined to be one of those “Hall of Very Good” players, which is nothing at all to sneeze at. However, when a player can put up a .453 slugging percentage while playing so many games in those two ballparks, it can make you wonder what would happen if he ever got out of those ballparks.

We found out in 2010, when the Boston Red Sox took a chance on Beltre (seems silly now to say that!) after a season in which he hit only eight home runs for the Seattle Mariners. He took a liking to the Green Monster, leading the league in doubles (49) while hitting 28 home runs and compiling a 141 OPS+, which is currently his third highest number in his career. He finished 9th in the MVP race, but didn’t stay in Boston any longer than that one year. In 2011, he signed a big deal to go to the Texas Rangers, where his career has taken off. As for the Red Sox, they handed the third base reigns over to veteran Kevin Youkalis, who had a down (but still excellent!) 2011 campaign before his career started to fade away due to injuries.

Beltre has flourished since arriving in Texas, posting a 133 OPS+ over 3,954 plate appearances heading into Sunday’s action. While an injury has slowed him down this season, he has been mostly durable and considered one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. Other than not stealing bases, Beltre’s offensive game has always been solid. His great defense just adds to what makes him a legendary player who hardly anyone likely saw coming a decade ago.

There will always be naysayers out there: Beltre has only that one home run title on his mantle. He has never lead the league in RBI or batting average. His black ink consists of a home run title, and a doubles title. It isn’t really that Beltre has been a dominant hitter throughout his career. It is more about how great he is as a third baseman, one of the most underrepresented positions in the Hall of Fame. When you add in his five Gold Gloves, his defensive value, the number of times he has been in the top five or top ten in various categories, and his overall career rankings, you are left with a player who is a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Fame third baseman. Compared to other third basemen, he has more than enough dominant seasons combined with a career of sustained excellence.

Beltre has been one of my favorite players to follow, because his career fascinates me. While players like Derek Jeter storm out of the game and seemingly cruise (I know that really ISN’T the case!) to their Hall of Fame status, players like Beltre start off a bit more slowly before their careers begin to take off. One of my favorite things about baseball is that no career arc is the same – we have our players who let the baseball world know right away how great they are, while we have others (like Jamie Moyer) who dawdle around forever before becoming MLB All-Stars and even Hall of Fame players (Moyer is most certainly not a Hall of Fame pitcher!)

Where would I rank Beltre all time? He seems to obviously be behind Schmidt and Mathews. Jones was such a dominant offensive player that it is hard for me to put Beltre ahead of him. I might rank him fifth, behind Schmidt, Mathews, Jones, and Brett, but ahead of Robinson. Robinson was spectacular as well defensively, but didn’t have Beltre’s bat.

Up next on the quest to 3,000 is Albert Pujols, who has slowed down tremendously through the years but should be able to get to the magic number.

Through all of my years on the Internet, nothing has ever amused me more than some of the trade proposals that are thrown out there by fans, thinking that 500 pieces of an old Yugo can be traded in for a Rolls Royce.

As a fan of the sport, I love to think up many of my own trade scenarios, thinking of what may be fair for a team to acquire certain players they are targeting. While no two trades are exactly alike, looking at recent trade history can at least give you a guide. Do you want a top rental reliever? Look at the Cubs-Yankees trade, which yielded the Yankees one of the top prospects in baseball (+ more!). Do you want a top reliever you can control? Look at the Yankees-Indians trade, which yielded the Yankees two Top 100 prospects (+ more!), including top prospect Clint Frazier. Do you want a cost-controlled, consistent starting pitcher? Look at that White Sox-Cubs trade for guidance. The White Sox received the top prospect remaining in the Cubs’ organization, plus another top 100 prospect, plus two intriguing guys lower down in the system.

Gone are the days of the salary dump. Teams are making so much money nowadays that they feel less of a need to dump contracts on other teams for low-level prospects. Many years ago, the Yankees and Phillies completed such a deal when the Yankees got Bobby Abreu for a package of non-prospects that was headlined by 1st round failure C.J. Henry. I guess I should be fair and acknowledge that two of the prospects actually did make appearances in the big leagues, which is more than I can ever say for myself, but make no mistake about it: The Phillies wanted to unload a contract, and the Yankees were always willing to oblige. These types of deals are just no longer in vogue – you aren’t going to see a Justin Verlander traded for middle-of-the-road prospects just because he makes too much money.

The key to making a trade proposal, in my opinion, is this: Does the trade hurt you a bit inside? When thinking about the trade, do you say to yourself “Wow, I really wish my favorite team wouldn’t give up this guy, but I have to!” If you can say that, you are at least on the right track to coming up with something meaningful.

“Don’t trade this, don’t deal that! They better not even be considering trading THAT prospect!” You probably have seen this often. Let me put this out there for you: Most of the time, the team acquiring the established pieces end up getting the better of the deal over the team getting the prospects. This is not ALWAYS true, of course. The Mets probably felt quite good about getting Zack Wheeler for rental Carlos Beltran when Wheeler actually developed into a MLB contributor. It appears that Wheeler’s injuries are going to potentially crush his career, but this is what you would consider a successful rental-for-prospect type of trade. Most don’t even end up that well.

Many deadline deals are filled with surprises, where prospects who were not the best prospects in the original deal end up becoming the gems. One of my favorite deadline deals ever was when CC Sabathia was dealt to the Brewers for a group of prospects headlined by Matt LaPorta. LaPorta never panned out. However, included in that trade was a player-to-be-named later who turned out to be Michael Brantley, who has been able to save Cleveland’s face in the deal. Sometimes, those deal sweeteners become the sweetest part of the entire trade.

There has been a lot of action the past two weeks leading up to the deadline, as teams have figured out that those few extra starts or handful of extra games can end up being the difference between winning and losing a division. Getting Quintana a week ago rather than waiting until the end of July helps the Cubs get three extra starts out of their acquisition instead of having to rely on lesser pitchers as they make a run to repeat as NL Central champions.

The deadline has become wilder than the Winter Meetings in recent seasons, as I have found the Winter Meetings to be rather mundane and more chatter than action. The trade deadline is more than just chatter – there is usually a lot of action as well.

This will be a fun week of baseball, and a fun week to hang around Twitter and wait for Ken Rosenthal’s latest big scoop. As long as you don’t expect an iPhone 7 in exchange for five exploding Samsung 7’s, you should be able to survive the week without needing a sedative.

Calling Sonny Gray! Calling Yu Darvish! Dodgers, Line 1! The Dodgers, having a season for the ages, had their biggest nightmare occur this afternoon when Clayton Kershaw was lost to a back injury. He was instantly placed on the disabled list.

The good news for the Dodgers is that they are very secure in their playoff position, so if they feel that Kershaw will be back within the next six weeks or so, it decreases some of the urgency. However, you have to figure that some of the top pitchers on the market are now in their cross hairs.

The offense has been great all season long, and should be able to support their pitching staff even with the loss of Kershaw. The pitchers after Kershaw in the rotation are far from scary, but they have been productive. That is especially true of Alex Wood (2.17 ERA, 193 ERA+), who has surprisingly pitched to Kershaw’s level this year, when healthy. After him, however, the rotation is a bit more iffy. Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy are both fine middle-to-late rotation starters, but neither would inspire big confidence in the playoffs. The Dodgers can really use a boost from Kenta Maeda, who has pitched well in four of his last five starts.

This is all about Kershaw, however, as there is no substitute for arguably the best pitcher on the planet when he is healthy. The Dodgers were probably casting a wide net for pitching help before his injury. Now, the net may actually be a bit more narrow, as a top-of-the-rotation target figures to be more of a focus, unless the news on Kershaw comes back very positive.

I realize that Kershaw’s postseason performance has been erratic, but there are still few (if any) pitchers one would want on the hill in any game at any time. The Dodgers have bought themselves plenty of time with their big season to date. However, they now find themselves in a quandary with only eight days until the trade deadline.

Of course, the Nationals, another team with a firm grip on a playoff berth, weren’t immune to injuries today. Stephen Strasburg, pitching to a 3.31 ERA (132 ERA+) entering today’s action, left the game against the Diamondbacks due to forearm stiffness.

While Strasburg is not the ace that Kershaw is, he is still the obvious #2 to Max Scherzer‘s dominating #1 (three home runs to the first three batters on Saturday aside)

The Nationals do not have the depth or the bullpen that the Dodgers can use to get themselves through a big injury. Gio Gonzalez has been outstanding (2.83 ERA; 154 ERA+), but his FIP is much less flattering (4.16). The fact they are trying to squeeze innings out of Edwin Jackson tells you all you really need to know: The Nationals likely will have a tough time surviving a Strasburg injury unless they use some of their remaining prospects to get a starting pitcher. A team looking to get over the playoff series hump is surely not going to try to do it with Scherzer, Gonzalez, and a cast of misfits, right? That can’t happen.

Like the Dodgers, the Nationals will be able to hit enough to avoid any kind of big collapse in a playoff push. They could go in the direction of bolstering their bullpen even more if they can’t get a starter, but it is hard to envision this team doing much if Strasburg’s injury is serious.

3. The Cubs Try to Make Their Move

The Brewers, and their unpredictable ways, are beginning to fade a bit, which has opened up the door for the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, and even the St. Louis Cardinals. Entering action today, the four teams were separated by 4.5 games. The Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals all have expected records that would have placed them at 46 losses each entering action today. While many expect the Cubs to pull away now that they have started acquiring some assets, I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion too quickly. They are still a flawed bunch that is hoping a turnaround by Jose Quintana in the second half can bolster a pitching staff that has been running on fumes most of the season. The staff has been better as of late, though.

As for the opposition, watching the Brewers a few weeks ago in Yankee Stadium was interesting, to say the least. They are a reckless type of team with no big regard for defense. They want to hit home runs and run wildly around the bases. They want to play unorthodox because they feel that is the way they can differentiate themselves from the pack. It isn’t (wasn’t?) a bad strategy – if you don’t seem to have the talent to win it on PAPER, you may as well try different things to turn yourself into more than people expect.

The Pirates are riding a bit of a streak by the embattled Andrew McCutchen, who suddenly has a .899 OPS after disappearing from the heights of baseball stardom over the past 1.5 seasons or so. Before the season started, there seemed to be a lot of interest in McCutchen, though the Pirates never pulled the trigger. Buying low on his talent would have been smart for somebody, though the Pirates likely priced him based on what he was before 2016, not on what he was during 2016. That said, the squad is still 12th in runs in the league and 6th in team ERA. Not typically the formula for winning divisions, but when a division lacks a superpower, being flawed isn’t a killer.

The Cardinals are three games under .500, so we shouldn’t be singing their praises too much. That said, they have been able to play just well enough to keep themselves on the edges of contention. Their expected record paints a prettier picture though, as their pitching staff currently sports the 3rd best ERA in the National League. Carlos Martinez is a stud, while Mike Leake (3.39 ERA; 126 ERA+), Lance Lynn (3.30 ERA: 129 ERA+), and Michael Wacha (3.71 ERA; 115 ERA+) have all held their own. The offense and bullpen, however, leave a lot to be desired, which is probably why they are under-performing their expected record. They are 13-19 in one-run games.

The National League Central will be fun to watch down the stretch, as the Cubs will try to finally put the opposition away. I am not sure that is going to be as easy as once thought, however.

]]>http://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-week-in-review-clayton-kershaw-stephen-strasburg-and-the-nl-central/feed/0MLB: The David Cone Perfect Game Experiencehttp://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-the-david-cone-perfect-game-experience/
Tue, 18 Jul 2017 22:07:20 +0000http://www.sportskibble.com/?p=504July 18, 1999. My brother-in-law was able to secure tickets to a game in the Bronx between the Yankees and Expos. A rather mundane interleague match-up between David Cone and future two-time Yankee Javier Vazquez. The biggest story leading into the game had nothing to do with a matchup between a veteran star and a youngster coming into his own. Rather, it was the return of Yogi Berra to Yankee Stadium after years of saying he would never step foot in the ballpark again after being fired as manager years earlier.

There was a subplot that we needed to deal with that afternoon: We had a softball game to get to later that evening. I understand many would say “Why worry about a stupid softball game when you are at Yankee Stadium?” That is not how athletes (or whatever it is you wish to call slow-pitch softball players) think, though. We still have that sense of team – that sense that if we don’t get to the field in time, it could cause a forfeit. Sure, they might forgive us for sacrificing a chance at a softball win in order to see a perfect game, but the key word there is MIGHT.

During the historical game – a type of game that has only been witnessed by 23 crowds in the history of the sport – there was a young child sitting behind us that had this thing with kicking my brother-in-law’s seat. He also wasn’t very happy when his father was unable to secure a foul ball for him. His family probably talks to him this day about how he was more into being obnoxious than watching baseball history. If you are reading this now, I hope you are a die-hard Yankees’ fan that now can sit in your seat comfortably.

As with many things in life, most of what happened that day was a blur. I remember the Berra ceremony, which came complete with Don Larsen. I remember Ricky Ledee hitting a shot in the upper deck that is probably in the top five longest home runs I have witnessed in person. Ledee was an interesting player – he was a smooth, sweet-swinging left-handed hitting outfielder that seemed like he could become a star in Yankee Stadium. He showed flashes of brilliance in his time in the Bronx, including a crucial hit in the 1998 World Series off of Padres’ ace Kevin Brown. He just never quite got over the hump to become that star, and was eventually dealt in a trade that would bring in David Justice. He would go on to have a career that was successful, if not forgettable. However, on this day, he would have easily been voted as the second star of the game if this was the NHL. His home run was pivotal on the offensive side, and the catch he made for the 26th out was one of the most heart stopping plays I have ever witnessed. It was not a great play – it was one of those looping pop ups that just smelled like trouble coming off the bat. Ledee, seemingly struggling to maintain his balance, charged in and made of the most awkward catches you will ever witness. Left field in Yankee Stadium is harder to play than many center fields across baseball, and in that one moment, it almost robbed us all of history.

Of course, we all remember what happened next – a pop up to Scott Brosius that put the entire crowd into a state of frenzy. I don’t know how long we stayed after that final out – I assume we left quicker than most because of that darn softball game.

There were very few tense moments during the game. Paul O’Neill made a sliding catch on a ball that was too early in the game to be memorable as we watched. A ground ball to Chuck Knoblauch, famous for once hitting Keith Olbermann’s mother with a throw, lead to a loud “phew” across the stadium as he routinely turned it into an out. Other than that, it was a lot of weak contact and strikeouts. Other than the Ledee play, the most nerve-wrecking part of the game was a rain delay.

Nobody ever wins against time. A year and a half later, Cone found himself as a mop up reliever in the Subway Series after a rough 2000 campaign. He gave Yankees’ fans one more big moment, however, when he came into the 5th inning of Game 4 and was able to get Mike Piazza to fly out. Piazza had hit a ball that likely is still carrying to this day off of Denny Neagle earlier in the night, and Joe Torre wanted nothing to do with that matchup again, so he summoned Cone with two outs and nobody on to get through Piazza.

There was also some justice for my brother-in-law and me. 3 years earlier, we were supposed to be in the Bronx for a game against the Seattle Mariners. A game that would become Dwight Gooden‘s no-hitter.

In my life, I have seen other big baseball moments. The first game I attended with my future wife was the night Roger Clemens recorded his 300th win and 3,000th strikeout. Years later, those accomplishments have been stained. I have attended a few Old-Timer’s Day games, the first being Don Mattingly‘s return, while the second was the return of Hideki Matsui. But the best game I ever saw was on that July day in the Bronx, and the bar is forever set high to top it.

To be perfectly honest, I hadn’t watched the Home Run Derby since…..I am not sure. My best guess was the Mark McGwire–Sammy Sosa derby at Fenway many moons ago. The All-Star Game and its festivities typically don’t interest me as much now as they used to. Maybe I will pay attention next year, since the series is now tied (and the two leagues have scored exactly the same number of runs). That may add some juice to the game.

As for the Derby this year, I watched it because of all of the star power that decided to enter. Having Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge participate was a coup for MLB, as sometimes players do bow out. Adding in a rookie sensation like Cody Bellinger to the mix also added to the intrigue.

Overall, after the first round drams of Judge vs. Justin Bour, the competition was a bit anti-climatic. Judge was able to keep up his energy while everyone else faded in the second and third round. Perhaps a future enhancement should be less time on the clock. The format overall is fine, but you may get juicier finals if you cut down on the clock. Perhaps they should implement a shorter clock early and have a final that goes three minutes? I don’t know – overall, I enjoyed watching it and may want to watch it again in future years.

2. The Cubs Get Aggressive

The Cubs cashed in another top prospect this week, shipping off Eloy Jiminez in a deal for Jose Quintana. After his performance today, it looks like it already is an overwhelming success.

Quintana, as you know, wasn’t pitching up to the standard he had set over the past several years. He was one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball before having trouble early in 2017. It seems that he has started to gain some momentum, and a switch to the National League may just put him over the top again.

That is the future, however. In the present, it is hard to find much fault with what the Cubs did. Their rotation is aging in some spots, and they likely will lose Jake Arrieta this winter to free agency. Quintana offers some stability both for this year and the years ahead. Trading away some prospect depth (even top prospect depth) to help your present team is often the right way to go, depending on where the team is. The Cubs are still in their window for titles.

3. The Braves are flying

A few years ago, the industry was talking about how the Braves wanted to make their team good for when they moved into their new home in 2017. It appeared they may be a year or two behind their goal after they began the season 22-29.

Don’t look now, but the Braves are showing signs of life. They are currently playing .500 ball (45-45) and have positioned themselves right on the edge of wild-card contention, though that may still seem like a bit of a long shot.

Matt Kemp has put together a solid season, while Matt Adams has done so well that the Braves decided to put Freddie Freeman at third base. I don’t think this is a great long-term solution, but for now, it gives their lineup some much-needed length. Getting some production out of Nick Markakis (.356 OBP) and Brandon Phillips (.780 OPS) has also been a big help for their surge. Obviously, they would love more out of Dansby Swanson, but for as long as the team is playing well, they can live with Swanson’s growing pains.

The pitching is still a work in progress, as evidenced by the 4.65 staff ERA. It also happens to be where the Braves are the strongest within their minor league system. Mike Foltynewicz (25) has put together a solid season (3.84 ERA in 98.1 innings), while Sean Newcombe has started to get his feet wet at the MLB level. In 6 starts, he has posted a 4.26 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Those are hardly electrifying numbers, but a starting point for their #5 prospect.

The Braves don’t typically stay down for long. At least not in the past couple of decades. They have rebuilt their system, sprinkled in some useful veterans (R.A. Dickey is giving them the quality innings Bartolo Colon failed to do), and are starting to incorporate their rich farm system into the MLB squad. There is potential here for them to rise to the top of the National League East within the next few seasons. While the Phillies’ rebuild has started off sluggish, the Braves have been full speed ahead. It may not be long before the National League will start feeling its full wrath.

The question becomes whether or not the Braves want to make an actual run at the Wild Card with some smaller moves, or if they should strengthen their youth even more by looking at deals for Adams, Phillips, Dickey, etc. Personally, I think they are best standing pat unless something comes at them that is just too good to pass up. I don’t think this is a team that is truly ready to make a big run at a playoff berth (their run differential is still well in the negatives, after all), but I also don’t know if there is big value to be had for their veterans. It doesn’t hurt to ask around, but staying the course is sometimes the right strategy, no matter how boring it may sound.

If you follow baseball even casually, you know one of the biggest holes among the contenders was the Nationals’ bullpen. Entering play on Sunday, the Nationals had the highest ERA (5.34), lowest WAR (-0.9), 5th lowest K/9 (8.20), and highest HR/9 rate (1.65). To sum it up, they haven’t just been bad: They have been abysmal. A team with a huge lead in their division thanks to their starting pitching and offense (never mind the struggles of all the teams behind them) was struggling at a part of the game that will become more important as summer turns to fall and the postseason begins.

In Madson and Doolittle, the Nationals acquire a pair of former closers having strong seasons. Madson has a 2.06 ERA (2.43 FIP) and 55.8% ground ball rate. His K/BB ratio (6.5) is, by far, the best of his career. He is keeping the ball in the ballpark, and will also have value to the Nationals beyond 2017, as he is signed through next year. Madson has a history of injuries (he missed all of 2012, 2013, and 2014!), but has now pitched in 171 games over the last three seasons.

Doolittle has also been plagued with injuries in his career, but has been one of the tougher left-handed relievers in the game when healthy. Over 254 career games, he has posted a 3.09 ERA and 300/47 K/BB ratio over 253 innings. This season, he has been his typical solid self, posting a 3.38 ERA over 21.1 innings with a strong 31/2 K/BB ratio. Unlike Madson, Doolittle is a fly ball type pitcher (51.1% this year; 51.9% career) who can give up his share of home runs. Doolittle also provides potential value beyond this year, as he is signed through next season with two team options in 2019 and 2020. (The 2020 option can become a mutual option if he finishes 100+ games in 2018 and 2019).

As for what the Athletics get in return, Neuse is now considered the #11 prospect in the Athletics system, according to mlb.com, while Luzardo is #15. Back in the 2016 draft, the Nationals selected Luzardo in the third round and paid him twice slot to lure him away from the University of Miami. This is despite the fact that he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. He has just returned from that surgery, pitching in three games this year down in the GCL. Neuse converted from shortstop over to third base, which always means a bump in offense is needed to become a full-time player. He is hitting .291/.349/.469 down in A-ball this year as a 22-year old. Treinan is a 29-year old with a 5.12 ERA for the Nationals this year, so he has contributed nicely to the league’s worst bullpen.

Bottom Line: The return seems a bit light for me, but Madson and Doolittle are not premium talents at this point. The Athletics get to erase their contracts off of their books, but they weren’t making an insane amount of money. They had team control through next year, which should have increased their value at least a bit.

Lazaro is the wild-card in this trade. I am not all that high on Neuse, but Lazaro has the talent to be a solid MLB starter. If he can develop that talent, the Athletics will look much smarter in this deal. If you can convert two veteran relief pitchers into a legitimate starting pitcher, you would take that trade any day. He is still a long way away from potentially reaching that potential.

I don’t know if Madson or Doolittle can be looked at as a closer at this point, but the Nationals bullpen was terrible almost top to bottom. Madson and Doolittle should stabilize the weakest part of their team. For a squad looking to finally get over the playoff hump, it is tough to argue with a deal like this. None of the prospects they gave up figured to be in the mix for at least the next two seasons.

The Nationals also, obviously, kept their best prospects. They can still look for an outfielder, or even a closer, as the trade deadline approaches if they wish to fortify their position even more.

Grades:Nationals: B
Athletics: C

]]>MLB: Second Half Outlookhttp://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-second-half-outlook/
Thu, 13 Jul 2017 21:38:36 +0000http://www.sportskibble.com/?p=491I know the players probably love the 4-day All-Star Break, but I hate it. Of course, I hated the 3-day All-Star Break. I could go for no All-Star Break at all, actually – while understanding that the Player’s Union would never accept that.

I loved the Home Run Derby this year. It was fun to see some of the young stars shine a bit, and have fun with the competition. Aaron Judge winning was hardly a surprise, as he didn’t even seem to break much of a sweat as he was launching balls all over the field. The All-Star Game itself? I have always been a “take-it-or-leave it” type when it comes to the game. It is mostly background noise for me than it is actually tantalizing entertainment.

As the Second Half is upon us, it is time to make some predictions for what I think will happen, based on questions that I think would be on everyone’s mind:

You may think this is a silly question, but it really isn’t. In 1969, Reggie Jackson hit 37 home runs leading into the All-Star Break. He ended the season with 47. Chris Davis hit 37 home runs before the 2013 All-Star Break, but was able to get to the 50 mark (53). Judge, of course, “only” has 30, and the midway point in the season isn’t really that – the Yankees have played more than 81 games. Is there 20+ home runs left in Judge’s bat? My prediction is that he will end up with 52. That is actually an aggressive prediction, because Judge will enter the dog days of the season, where many big home run totals go to fall. However, I think even a slowed down Aaron Judge can pop some balls over the fence rather easily. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, one of my favorite things about the baseball season was the inevitable player who would take aim at the Roger Maris 61. It is unfortunate that the chase for that mark is long gone and tainted.

2. Will the Cubs bounce out of it?

The Cubs, of course, made a big deal for Jose Quintana today, giving up their best prospect (and more!) to land the coveted lefty. Quintana has been off his game this year (which means he will fit right in with the Cubs’ rotation), but when you acquire a player, you do it for what you believe is their future production, not what they did yesterday. Quintana is also not a pure rental, so even if the Cubs do flounder the rest of the way, Quintana is there to help for the next several years.

As for this year, the Milwaukee Brewers are a sloppy first-place team. They are fun to watch, with their ultra-aggressive style, but they are a terrible fielding squad that has to continuously bail themselves out of their own mistakes. The best thing going for the Cubs is that nobody else in the division is doing well: The Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds likely do not pose a major threat, even if the Cards are currently tied with the Cubs in the standings. Can they make up 5.5 games? If it was the Houston Astros ahead of them, I would say no. The Brewers? It is impossible to completely trust them.

3. Will there be any miracles?

The days of the baseball miracle are not gone, but the wild-card has made it less prominent. A miracle would be a team that chews up a big deficit in a short period of time. Take a look at the American League standings: The worst team in the league is 7.5 games back of the second Wild-Card. Of course, if the White Sox were to get into contention, I think many of us would see that as a miracle. I don’t see that happening.

The National League is where you are better off looking for a true miracle, since the playoffs are so easily defined at the moment. The Rockies have a 7.5 game lead in the “race” for the second wild-card spot. They have the fourth best record in the league, with two of the three teams ahead of them within the same division. I love the Rockies, and even had them as a preseason surprise, but they started to slow down towards the end of the first half, while the Atlanta Braves showed that their timeline may be coming up faster than we thought, as they are now “only” two games below .500. If you want a miracle, there you have it: Pick the Braves to make a Wild-Card run. But don’t even risk a penny on it, because it is rather unlikely.

4. Are the awards basically set in stone?

Nope. While it will be hard for anyone to beat Judge in the AL Rookie of the Year race, and Cody Bellinger looks solid on the National League side, every other award is hardly a shoo-in. Can Judge also win the MVP? If he plays the rest of the year like he has thus far, it wouldn’t be close. But watch out for Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Bryce Harper is looking good in the National League, but Paul Goldschmidt is having a big year for a surprise team, which is usually a good MVP formula.

The 45-43 Twins have an expected record of 38-50. They are playing seven games better than the numbers indicate they should be playing. Of course, that only tells us how good or bad a team has been so far – it doesn’t necessarily mean that the team will continue to play that way going forward.

The Twins can’t play at home (20-28), but are somehow 25-15 on the road. They are 14th in the American League in ERA and slugging percentage, and only 9th in runs scored. Everything about them tells you they should be fighting it out with the Phillies, not the Indians. One-run games have been good to them (10-5), because that is how bad teams typically play better than they should. They are a terrible 12-20 in blowouts.

Can they hang tough? Of course they can. While a team like this will be bad in the long run, flukes can happen over the course of one season. And, again – it is always possible some of their players play better in the second half. Essentially, they have been given a gift: A team playing poorly has a chance to get to the playoffs if they start playing better.

6. What team has surprised you the most this year?

It isn’t the Twins, since they are not playing as well as their record. I could say the Royals, but this is a team that won a World Series only two years ago. The Braves would make a very solid choice, but I said in the preseason that they may take a bit of a leap this year (In the effort of fairness, I said the same about the Phillies – oops!) The Rockies have surprised everyone, but I had them as my surprise team in April.

This leaves me with three possibilities: The Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rays. If you held a gun to my head, I would pick the Brewers by a smudge as there was seemingly no hope at all for them when the season began. Some pundits were high on the Diamondbacks, and the Rays haven’t played well over their heads. The Brewers? It just doesn’t make sense.

7. Are we destined for Astros – Dodgers?

No. Last year, we got a World Series that truly did feature two of the best teams in baseball: The Cubs destroyed the National League, while the Indians’ 94 wins were only one behind the Texas Rangers (and one ahead of the Red Sox!) This is what makes baseball so interesting: The last few seasons have featured teams that were arguably the best in their leagues going at it. But as recently as 2014, the World Series featured two teams that didn’t even break 90 wins (Wild-Card Giants vs. Wild-Card Royals)

While the Astros and Dodgers are certainly the favorites, I will change it up a tad: I have to stick with the Astros since they were my preseason team. In the National League, I will go with the Nationals to finally break through and make their way to the Series. Exciting prediction, this isn’t. If I didn’t pick the Astros in the preseason, maybe I switch it up. But why go against the 60-win team that I actually picked?

8. The Bottom Line?

The first half of the season has been great. The home run spike doesn’t really bother me, because statistical blips are not uncommon. That is part of what makes baseball fun – you don’t know exactly what type of year you are going to get (offense or pitching) before teams break camp. So far, it has been about the offense. That doesn’t mean it will be in the second half.

]]>MLB: A Look Back at My Predictionshttp://www.sportskibble.com/mlb-a-look-back-at-my-predictions/
Sun, 09 Jul 2017 23:38:38 +0000http://www.sportskibble.com/?p=485This is also known as the “What the heck was I thinking?” column. I am going to take a look back at my preseason predictions, just to see how wrong I have been.

Before the season began, my division winners were the Blue Jays, Indians, Astros, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. My wild-cards were the Mariners, Red Sox, Nationals, and Pirates (?). The PIRATES? Was I being serious? My two sleeper predictions were pretty good: The Colorado Rockies in the National League and the New York Yankees in the American League. Both are currently in the thick of the playoff chase, so I will consider that a win.

As for the awards:

AL MVP: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland – I based this on trying to find someone other than Mike Trout who may have a breakout type of year for a team I thought would cruise into the playoffs. Oops. Heading into action today, Lindor was hitting .256/.316/.462 (97 OPS+). Fine numbers for a shortstop – not so fine for a MVP prediction.Actual MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees – He is an easy choice, in my opinion, at the midway point of the season.

AL Cy Young: Marcus Stroman, Toronto – Stroman has been very good: A 3.28 ERA (139 ERA+) and 93/29 K/BB ratio over 112.1 innings. It wasn’t enough to get him into the All-Star Game, but I am not too upset over missing on this one.Actual Cy Young: Chris Sale, Boston – Already has 178 strikeouts, has a 2.75 ERA (166 ERA+), and a FIP that shows he has been unlucky (2.09). Jason Vargas has been outstanding, and Corey Kluber is starting to roll, but had to deal with some time on the DL. This is Sale’s award to lose.

AL Rookie: Aaron Judge, Yankees – So far, I have hit gold on this one! In my write-up, I talked about how he was a major sink-or-swim guy who “might hit 30 homer runs.” Might, eh?Actual Rookie: Judge

NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Washington – He is certainly a strong contender, given his .322/.429/.591 triple slash (162 OPS+). That OPS+ “only” ranks him third, but the two above him are Justin Turner (missed time due to injury) and Joey Votto (incredible hitter playing on a not-so-incredible team). Players like Paul Goldschmidt, who has led the charge for the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks, are also in that conversation.Actual MVP: I am still sticking with Harper. The field could be tight, but a second half like his first half should seal the deal.

NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard, Mets – Yikes! Well, he started off the year strong until the craziness surrounding the Mets’ season struck. I will never understand why he was allowed to pitch when he had obvious discomfort.Actual Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Washington – With all due respect to Clayton Kershaw, Scherzer leads the NL in strikeouts, ERA, ERA+, WAR, innings, WHIP…I can go on and all. Kershaw can certainly make a run at him in the second half, but for now, it is all Super Max.

NL Rookie: Dansby Swanson, Atlanta – Not a great year for Swanson. I thought the Braves could be a surprise team thanks somewhat to him. However, they have been a surprise team despite of his slow start: .224/.299/.329 in 331 plate appearances. The Braves need to keep throwing him out there, but it hasn’t been a fine year for Swanson.Actual Rookie: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers – 25 home runs in 69 games. A .972 OPS. Playing in a home ballpark that isn’t exactly known for offensive play. Bellinger has been riding a magic carpet, and there isn’t too many that seem to even have much of a chance to catch him for this honor, barring a complete second half meltdown.

Overall, a bit of a mixed bag, but a whole lot of wrong thus far. The Mets have completely collapsed under their own weight, the Blue Jays have been a disaster, and last year’s World Series participants have been off their games – especially the Cubs.