Will immigration reform get killed in Republican-led U.S. House?

May 25, 2013|Reuters

* Republicans doubt political necessity of sweeping bill

* Warnings about Hispanic vote challenged

By Thomas Ferraro

WASHINGTON, May 25 (Reuters) - The biggest overhaul of U.S.immigration laws in a generation won bipartisan approval from apowerful U.S. Senate committee last week, but there is a strongchance that Republicans in the House of Representatives will endup killing it.

The problem: House Republicans are far from convinced byarguments from party leaders that passage of the bill would helpRepublicans draw support from Hispanic voters. Many also believeany kind of amnesty for the estimated 11 million immigrants whoare in the United States illegally is just plain wrong.

"There is no evidence to support this idea that Republicanswill pick up a lot of votes if we give amnesty to 11 millionfolks," said Representative Tim Huelskamp, a Kansas Republican.

One possibility is that the House will vote for watered-downreform, including more visas for highly skilled workers. But itlikely will not include a way for the undocumented to staylegally and eventually get on a special pathway to U.S.citizenship.

Senate Democrats and even some Senate Republicans say thereis no way a comprehensive immigration bill could win finalcongressional approval without a pathway to citizenship.

"It's a non-starter," said Democratic Senator CharlesSchumer of New York, a member of the Gang of Eight senators whowrote the bipartisan Senate bill.

Some House Republican lawmakers say that even if the partywould gain votes by supporting sweeping reform, that's no reasonto back otherwise objectionable legislation.

"I don't think we should be worried about the politicalimpact but instead what is in the best interest of America,"said Republican Representative Mo Brooks of Alabama.

Besides, he said, "People who are going to break our laws, Idon't want them in this country."

This kind of opposition from House Republicans may pose thebiggest threat to White House-backed legislation set to comenext month before the full Senate, which Obama's Democrats hold,55-45.

13-YEAR PATHWAY

Republicans control the House, 233-201 with one vacancy.Most Republicans have traditionally opposed legalization as aform of amnesty that rewards law breaking and they see asproviding an incentive for further illegal border crossing.

The bill that passed the Senate Judiciary Committee, 13-5,last Tuesday - with support from three Republicans - includesputting illegal residents on a 13-year pathway to citizenship,provided they pay back taxes and a fine, learn English, hold ajob and pass criminal background checks.

The measure, backed by business and labor, also wouldbolster border security and help fill the need for high- andlow-skilled workers.

After Hispanics gave President Barack Obama 71 percentsupport in the 2012 election, the Republican National Committeeendorsed comprehensive immigration reform in March, saying thatwithout reaching out to the fastest-growing large segment of theU.S. voting population, the party could say goodbye to thepresidency for generations to come.

Two months later, many Republicans remain unconvinced,particularly in the House, where only 39 of the 233 members comefrom districts that are 20 percent or more Hispanic, accordingto a recent study by Alex Engler in the Georgetown (University)Public Policy Review.

Huelskamp recalled a private strategy meeting earlier thisyear where political pollsters offered their findings and adviceto House Republicans. "They said, 'Look at the numbers. We haveto do something because of the numbers,'" he said.

But Huelskamp noted that Republican Senator John McCainfailed to attract much Hispanic support in his 2008 presidentialcampaign despite having crafted and pushed a sweepingimmigration bill the year before that was ultimately rejected.

McCain picked up 31 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008against Obama, just 4 percentage points more than 2012Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney ended up withagainst Obama four years later.

"I cannot in good conscience ratify illegal conduct with myvote. Any Republican who advocates ratifying illegal conductwith their vote is subverting the very principles that made theUnited States a great nation."

Few Republican strategists claim the party will gain manyvotes any time soon among Hispanic voters simply by supportingimmigration reform. But most think it important to at leastavoid the image of being anti-Hispanic or anti-immigrant so thatthey can eventually build a base of support among Hispanics.

"We have to have immigration reform to neutralize the chargethat we are anti-Hispanic," said Ron Bonjean, a formerRepublican congressional leadership aide turned politicalstrategist.