Welcome to Psyc350 Psyc350 prepares you for life, which is also required!

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Presentation on theme: "Welcome to Psyc350 Psyc350 prepares you for life, which is also required!"— Presentation transcript:

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Welcome to Psyc350 Psyc350 prepares you for life, which is also required!

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Overall purpose: Teach you the “common sense” of scientific empirical psychology Immediate Uses: ready you for 300- & 400-level classes ready you to participate in research conducted by faculty and graduate students Later uses: graduate, professional, etc. schooling after the BS your own research (consumer & producer)

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About Statistics, Data Analysis & Arithmetic Statistics is a mathematical discipline statisticians work mostly with the Calculus to develop theories and formulas about how to manipulate, organize & represent data they use axioms, theorems, & proofs to generate these formulas Data analysis is a tool used by Psychological researchers and practitioners to represent and test hypotheses about data arithmetic formulas and/or statistical analysis software are used In Psyc350 we will study data analysis… This course is more like “drivers education” and not like “mechanical engineering” The statisticians “build” the statistics, but we have to know how to “drive” them properly

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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics !!! Lies are “lies of fact” The only way to avoid being lied to is to know more than the liar –or being willing to do the work to catch the lie! Read broadly Learn where to double check  Snopes Expect “advocacy” Do the math – next page

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2000 sq. ft of water 2 inches deep 2 inches is 1/6 foot, so 2000 square feet * 1/6 foot = 333.33 cubic feet of water How big would a water bed mattress have to be to hold 333.33 cubic feet of water? a water bed mattress is usually about a foot deep if it were 1 foot deep and 7 feet top-bottom, The math is simple, but you have to remember to stop & check !!! Let’s do the math ….. Of course – you have to be able to do the math correctly A classic from the web… “A king size waterbed holds enough water to fill a 2000 sq. ft. house 2 inches deep.” it would have to be 47.618 feet wide (333.33 / 7) !!!

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Damn Lies !!! Damn lies occur when the data are collected in such a way as to produce the desired results. –The data are correct but lies are being told!!! Two major kinds….. –Inappropriate comparisons –Selected sampling

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From a Subaru advertisement that ran for 3 years … “Subaru Forrester! Better gas mileage than any midsized SUV” Curious, I compiled the following. Notice anything ?? AttributeForrester Length175.2 Width68.3 Height65.0 Interior volume93.5 Weight3090 Seating5 horsepower145 Best-selling Midsized SUVs ExplorerDurangoTrail Blazer 189.6200.8191.8 72.173.474.7 72.176.072.5 133.3135.2132.1 530066005600 777 239235 Technically they didn’t lie! But they did tell a Damn Lie by making the comparison they did !!!!! 14-25 inches longer 4-6 inches wider 7-11 inches taller 38-40 more cubic feet Weights 2000+ more Seats 2 more 90+ more horsepower Sometimes all you get is 1 word to tip you off!!! What 1 word is missing from this statement that should make you suspicious???? Better gas mileage than any other midsized SUV

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Tide Total Care Commercial Here’s the commercial… This is a “Damn Lie” !!!! Critique the claim !!!! “…help keep your clothes like new…” “…help keep all your everyday essentials like new…” What’s the lie???? What’s the problem?? “…after 30 washings … is perfect and the other … is sad.” 20sec 33sec 25sec 30 Tide washings vs. NEW dress Here’s how it should be done !!! What comparison should they have made??? Critique the comparison!!

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How to Lie with sampling!! If the sample doesn’t represent the population, then the conclusions won’t either!!! Politics is an easy example…. Democrats & Republicans differ on most political topics & choices. Ever wonder how both parties can offer poll data showing that “people prefer their position” ???? Different cities, states and regions have different mixes of Republicans & Democracts. So, by picking certain cities, states, or regions pollsters can “determine” which party will have the majority in the sample and what will be the results. They accurately report the results, but there was a “Damn Lie” told because of how the sampling was done.

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Auto Insurance is another great example of Damn Lies via sampling !!! Geico says people who switch to them save $$$. Progressive says people who switch to them save $$$. State Farm says people who switch to them save $$$. Allstate says people who switch to them save $$$. Can they all be telling the truth?!?!?!?! They’re all telling the truth, but they’re all telling Damn Lies !!!!! First  They’re only telling you about people who switched!! Who would switch if it costs them more to switch ????? Second  They never say “for a comparable policy”. Usually the switched-to-policy has a larger deductible, etc.! Third  Companies target different demographics. But they let you think that all the folks who switched are just like you.

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The data “categories” can be “redefined” to give different results… A Sheriff won election on a platform that, “I will reduce violent crimes in my jurisdiction!!!” During the campaign for the election 4 years later, his adversary reported that violent crimes had risen from 2100 to 2550, so the Sheriff should be voted out !!! 4 years before Sheriff took office Murders 100 Assualts 800 Robbery 1200 Burglary 2400 Theft 3000 4 years Sheriff was in office Murders 50 Assualts 600 Robbery 900 Burglary 2000 Theft 2400 What happened? Between elections, the National Crime Statistics Council redefined burglary as a violent crime!!!

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Selecting the “proper data” is a great way to control results!!! UNL set the goal of “increasing the % of female faculty who were tenured or in tenure-line positions at UNL. Several years later we wanted to evaluate how we were doing. Two group brought forward % values… They were different !!!! How can that be? % = (number female faculty / number total faculty) * 100 One group  reduced number of female faculty … excluded library faculty ( though they hold tenure positions ) excluded nursing faculty (have appointments at both UNL/O ) One group  reduced number of male faculty excluded Engineering & CBA faculty who made above a certain external salary (though were full-time faculty) excluded faculty in administrative positions ( “part time” faculty)

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Presenting part of the data is a great way to improve results !!!! Happiness Before Treatment Tx After Treatment People are most likely to enter treatment for depression when they are really unhappy. So are likely to show an improvement following treatment, whether the treatment works or not! But can’t see that if only present the immediate pre-post treatment data.

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Pedagogical Structure of the Course Jargon You gotta know the lingo Cognitive Structure How the words relate & integrate Action Scripts How to apply what you know to produce & evaluate knowledge

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Pedagogical Structure of the Course Jargon You gotta know the lingo Cognitive Structure How the words relate & integrate Action Scripts How to apply what you know to produce & evaluate knowledge This pedagogical approach can be used to make the learning of very complicated things much more reasonable ! The secret is to study how “experts” perform – what jargon they actually use, how those elements are meaningfully integrated & how they are orchestrated into actual expert performance !!! Here’s an example of applying this approach to “make sense” out of a very complicated activity  sleight-of-hand magic

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“looking for…” versus “looking at…” One of the reasons for learning the jargon, organizing it into a particular cognitive structure and then learning how to apply that structure via specific action scripts is that, as cognitive and perceptual psychologists tell us, we are much better at “looking for…” specific things than “looking at…” something and noticing the details ! Example #1 Ever text message? Notice that there are certain letters on the different numbered buttons (duh?!?). Only about 10% of people who text message every day can write down exactly which letters/symbols are on which number keys. When given 60 seconds to study the keypad, 80% of folks get it right – we’re better at looking for things than looking at them. Example #2 Oh… the things we miss!!!

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Instructional “Philosophy” S Sell – knowing this stuff is very important I Inspire – “Learn statistics and someone will feed you for the rest of your life.” S Structure – curricular design & integrative instructional flow S Support – web-based exercises & exam preparations, integrated laboratory experience & me I Insist – I really want you to learn this stuff and will fuss, nag, cajole, lure, bribe, etc. to get you to do so

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Important Stuff to Remember: You need a “C” (not a “C-”) for this course to count toward the Psychology Major You must complete all exams and the laboratory final to receive a passing grade in this course. You must complete all laboratory assignments to receive a passing grade in this class.