July 14, 2017

Institutional equilibrium weakens

Harish KhareA dangerous arrogance of power sets in

QUIETLY and perhaps unsuspectedly we are entering a potentially
dangerous period in our polity. Not because we have reason to entertain
continuous anxiety on our nation’s borders, not because the external
environment is deteriorating to our disadvantage, but because internal
institutional equations are about to change in a manner that would upset
the democratic polity’s equanimity.
To begin with, in another seven days we shall know who would be the new
Head of our Republic. Barring potential subversion on an extremely large
scale, Ram Nath Kovind should be the new tenant of that sprawling real
estate property atop the Raisina Hill. The change of tenancy will have
its consequences. The equation between the President and the Prime
Minister has always been subject to considerable modification and
negotiation after every change of players; and, though Rashtrapati
Bhavan is not a rival centre of power, its occupant —any occupant — can
be a source of irritation and frustration for any Prime Minister. Hence,
the importance of next week’s presidential poll on the quality of the
Prime Minister’s control and power of the Delhi sultanate.
It is widely accepted by New Delhi’s political cognoscenti that Ram Nath
Kovind is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal choice; moreover, it
is further suggested that in opting for him, the Prime Minister has
cocked a snook at the RSS impresarios, who had different ideas. The
RSS-Narendra Modi relationship is up for a revision.
Like Atal Bihari Vajpayee before him, Modi too has sought to gain a kind
of upper hand in the patron-client relationship that defines the
RSS-BJP symbiosis. The heart of the matter is that there is an inherent
conflict between a prime minister’s constitutional obligations and a
swayamsevak’s oath of allegiance to this “cultural body”, with its
headquarters in Nagpur. Prime Minister Vajpayee was clear from the very
beginning that his constitutional responsibilities and duties would take
precedence over the RSS’ expectations and demands; but he had to pay a
certain price for clarity and conviction. Modi has played a subtler hand
of cultivated ambiguity, humouring the RSS once in a while. But then it
is in the nature of office that, sooner or later, a prime minister has
to draw a line — for himself and for the Nagpur bosses.
In opting for Kovind, Modi has drawn a line. This has not gone unnoticed
or unresented by the parent body. For a BJP prime minister, the RSS is
the elephant in the room and it cannot be ignored. From a different
perspective it would appear to be rather ironic that a hope ought to be
pinned on a body like the RSS to keep in check a rampant prime
minister.
Come July 20, 2017, Modi will have his own President. That would make a
qualitative difference to the nature of choices available to the Prime
Minister in dealing with friends and foes. Though Pranab Mukherjee was
not a difficult President for Prime Minister Modi, nonetheless he could
not be called a rubber stamp. Prime Minister Modi or his advisers
certainly could not take President Mukherjee for granted — an option
that is now open to the Prime Minister. A vital equation in the national
power grid will stand definitely tilted, in favour of the Prime
Minister.
Not only a pocket President, next month the Prime Minister will also be
able to get a Vice-President of his choice. Whatever little space the
Opposition was able to claim for itself in the Rajya Sabha would get
drastically curtailed. And, all said and done, Hamid Ansari did not deny
himself the pulpit, from where he spoke out in defence of republican
values and democratic sensibilities. This minor source of irritation
would also stand taken care of in less than a month’s time.
And then, later in August, there will be a change of guard at the
Supreme Court of India. Institutionally, the higher judiciary remains
the only power centre that is not easily amenable to the government’s
blandishments or brandishments. Of late certain mutedness seems to have
crept in the judicial voice. Like any other institution, the judiciary’s
spunk is vitally dependent upon the moral fortitude of those who come
to man the bench. On this count, there are rumours. Those who believe
that a robust and vibrant judiciary remains a necessary condition for a
functioning democracy do not feel all that sanguine. The ruling coterie
will have less and less reason to worry about a judicial disapproval or
rebuff.
Of course, there is the ruling party itself. For all its appearances as a
modern political party, the BJP remains a closed affair. Since 2013,
when Narendra Modi crowbarred his way to dominance with the BJP and then
went on to graft democratic legitimacy over his leadership by winning
the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, the party has allowed itself to be content with
a very subordinate voice. The BJP president has no political persona
outside Narendra Modi’s shadow. There is no leader left who can be
remotely thought of as a potential challenger to Prime Minister Modi’s
hegemonic stewardship. Neither Vajpayee nor LK Advani ever enjoyed this
kind of sway over the BJP; their leadership was collegiate and they
found themselves constrained to share authority. Narendra Modi feels no
such handicap.
Three other democratic institutions — Cabinet, bureaucracy, media —
stand cheerfully self-emasculated. Never before was such a convergence
of timidity and opportunism seen as now among these three institutions;
there seems to be a veritable race to reduce themselves to the role of a
spear-carrier for the Prime Minister.
The sum total of reconfiguration of these institutional equations can
only set in motion objective conditions in which an authoritarian
temptation becomes a tempting proposition. The Modi government is
approaching a difficult phase, when all the promises and pretensions
have not exactly worked out. Economically, the jobless growth has a very
limited potential for electoral dividends. The entire business
community — the corporates, traders, shopkeepers and consumers — is yet
to regain its breath after being buffeted twice — first by the
demonetisation drama and now by the GST tantrums.
Politically, the Modi establishment has proved itself extremely
competent and clever; it feels it has reduced the Gandhis and the
Congress and other opposition parties to an ineffectual bunch; it feels
doubly sure of its cleverness after having sold the demonetisation joke
to the masses; it feels it has the momentum — and, history — behind it.
There is a dangerous edge to this overconfidence. It is morphing itself
into a sense of entitlement. Strong-headed leaders tend to arrogate to
themselves an aura of inevitability and infallibility. A robust
democracy should have available to itself institutions of accountability
that ensure that no leader, however powerful and however popular, trips
over his own web of megalomania.

Map of L K Advani's Rath Yatra of 1990

About Us / Disclaimer

This is a collaborative space run by an informal collective of people from across India and elsewhere. The blog was started many years ago under the aegis of South Asia Citizens Web. All web content placed here is done in public interest; it may be freely used by people for non commercial purposes. Please remember to give credit to original copyrighted sources and seek permission for further use.Disclaimer:Posting of content here does not constitute endorsement by the Communalism Watch Cooperative.