Just typing the words feels strange. Wichita State will face Kentucky in a No. 1 verus No. 8 matchup Sunday. And Wichita State is the Giant. Kentucky is the Killer.

When we started forecasting upsets in 2006 using our statistical model, the purpose was to project the results of matchups just like this one. Only the roles were usually reversed. So nothing quite speaks to the changing landscape of college basketball like the situation we find ourselves in now, as we crunch numbers trying to determine whether Kentucky has the chops to upset the Shockers.

The way our model sees things, the Wildcats indeed have a shot at a bracket-breaking win. But just how strong? That part is surprising.

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Giant Killers Blog

Giant Killers is Insider's annual metrics-based forecast of NCAA tournament upsets. A Giant Killer is a team that beats a tourney opponent seeded at least five spots higher. For a full explanation of our model, click here.

Peter Keating

Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he has covered investigative and financial stories since 1999. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society. He joined the Giant Killers team in 2008.