Performance of CDM-supported Wind Power Projects

In 2008 China, where a majority of wind CDM projects are located, is expected to lead the US in the annual additions of wind power capacity. In this paper, technological factors (including wind turbine characteristics, wind resource, terrain, and grid interconnection) and policy issues (including tariffs and renewable portfolio standards) that impact the performance and economic viability of China’s wind CDM projects are examined. It is shown that the large scatter in the expected performance of wind CDM projects means that there can be great uncertainty in the generation of or purchase of emissions reductions credits from CDM-supported wind projects. The primary factors that determine the successful/unsuccessful performance of the wind CDM projects are detailed. Predictive models of the projects’ performance are then developed and demonstrated to be able to subdivide the projects into groupings that have smaller ranges of scatter than the overall projects. Therefore the predictive models can provide potential wind farm developers and credit buyers with more confidence in the generation or purchase of emissions reductions credits. From this perspective, the implications for the US of China’s continued wind power growth will be discussed.