The Washington Post’s Chris Cilliza explains… A prominent Republican consultant — who isn’t working for any of the 2016 presidential candidates and has been right more times than I can count — said something that shocked me when we had lunch recently. He said that Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) had about the same odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee as former Florida governor Jeb Bush. Jaw-dropper, right? After all, the conventional wisdom is that Bush, the son and brother of presidents, is the Republican standard-bearer, while Cruz, a conservative’s conservative, is a factor, sure, but not someone who could...

The 2016 presidential campaign is already upon us and the debate is heating up over an unexpected issue -- the theory of evolution. Of course, in an ideal world, evolution would never really become a campaign issue. But the anti-science wing of the Republican Party continues to voice skepticism. Apologists for this wing would dearly like to distract the media and the voting public from what is, frankly, a national if not a global embarrassment. In truth, the President of the United States needs to be scientifically literate. For the federal government has an important role to play and it...

The Hill reports: “Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker will be among the possible 2016 Republican presidential candidates speaking to a prominent group of conservatives in Iowa this spring. Walker and Cruz will speak at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition’s spring kickoff event on April 25, the group announced in a Monday statement.” Ironically, in an election cycle in which many pundits discount the influence of Christian conservatives, they could play a critical role in selection of the nominee. In past cycles, these values voters have split their vote, never managing to unite behind a single,...

The Politico ^ | February 13, 2015 | James Hohmann and Kristen Heyford

The Walker surge in Iowa, Hillary’s Obama problem and other news from Week One of our yearlong insiders’ survey from the ground in 2016’s first-in-the-nation races.Most Iowa insiders believe Scott Walker would win their state’s Republican caucuses if they were held this week. But they’re not this week, and virtually none of the most influential thought leaders in the Hawkeye State believe that the Wisconsin governor will sustain his recent bounce in polls. This is one of several intriguing findings in the debut survey of The POLITICO Caucus. More than 100 of the most plugged-in activists, operatives and elected officials...

This column is so easy to pick apart, it's amazing that the Washington Post actually published it. This is by far the strangest column I’ve read on Senator Ted Cruz’s potential — he hasn’t even announced yet — candidacy. It’s written by Jennifer Rubin, who basically argues that Cruz is unpopular because he’s too “extreme.” He behaves, she writes, like an “angry young man,” and is not “presidential” at all. The “evidence” she uses? He’s “only” polling at 5%, she says, at RealClearPolitics. OK, so let’s look at RCP’s poll of polls. And what do we see? Jeb Bush is...

The early dinner crowd near the Capitol on Thursday yielded at least one notable pairing, with overtones of the presidential election cycle to come: Sen. Ted Cruz and former Ambassador John Bolton. Sharing a meal at Johnny’s Half Shell before Bolton was set to appear on Fox News, Cruz launched into a discussion of 2016 strategy audible to anyone within earshot, including a reporter for the Washington Examiner. Bolton has himself flirted with the idea of running for president in 2016, but his conversation with Cruz suggested the Texas senator, at least, views Bolton as a source of valuable input,...

Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie, in case you're wondering.I’ve said this before, in various places. But here’s Andrew Ferguson, saying it over at the Weekly Standard: Boy, that didn’t take long. Over the span of a few short days in late January and early February, three members of the top tier of Republican presidential candidates demonstrated why they’ll never be president. They didn’t do anything to disqualify themselves directly, just revealed the traits that will make them appear unsuitable to most voters by the time the campaign really heats up, say, when the presidential election is a mere...

Scott Walker is the only ambidextrous candidate in the Republican field. He appeals equally to the Republican establishment and the Tea Party/evangelical wingers. All other candidates fit neatly in one or the other box. While Jeb Bush’s record in Florida used to make him the most attractive member of his family to conservatives, he has blown that accolade with his strong support for immigration amnesty and Common Core. Chris Christie was never the darling of conservatives, but his appeal to establishment Republicans is obvious. Neither Bush nor Christie is a switch-hitter. On the right, Ted Cruz’s views fit the Tea...

â€śItâ€™s not my cup of tea.â€ť The former Arkansas governor and probable presidential candidate compared homosexuality to drinking and swearing on CNN: â€śPeople can be my friends who have lifestyles that are not necessarily my lifestyle. I donâ€™t shut people out of my circle or out of my life because they have a different point of view,â€ť Huckabee told CNNâ€™s Dana Bash, while deflecting a question about whether he believes being gay is a choice.â€śI donâ€™t drink alcohol, but gosh â€” a lot of my friends, maybe most of them, do. You know, I donâ€™t use profanity, but believe...

The 2016 presidential election cycle is already underway. Whether you are delighted or horrified at the prospect, the race is indeed now on. While it might seem impossibly far in the future, consider that the Iowa caucuses are only a year away. So we're going to take a very early look at the Republican field, which seems to be getting larger every week. The 2016 election will be rather unique, since it is a wide-open presidential election on both sides. No incumbent will be running, in other words, but the truly notable aspect of the race is that the parties...

This morning, Nate Cohn of the New York Times Upshot tries to answer the question asked by many Tea Party leaning Republicans in southern states: Why does it seem that the GOP presidential candidate always ends up being a moderate, rather than a ‘true conservative?’ And, he finds some interesting data about the power of the GOP in the states won by President Obama: But the blue-state Republicans still possess the delegates, voters and resources to decide the nomination. In 2012, there were more Romney voters in California than in Texas, and in Chicago’s Cook County than in West Virginia....

Video at site Possible Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee says homosexuality is a lifestyle choice like drinking and swearing — which is why he can accept friends who are gay, despite his religious convictions. "People can be my friends who have lifestyles that are not necessarily my lifestyle," Huckabee said in an interview with CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday. "I don't shut people out of my circle or out of my life because they have a different point of view. I don't drink alcohol, but gosh — a lot of my friends, maybe most of them, do. You know,...

Mike Huckabee, perhaps better than any other presidential contender, demonstrates the difficulties Florida presents for White House candidates. When the former Arkansas governor returns to Sarasota on Saturday, he will be revisiting the site where his presidential aspirations were dashed in 2008 because of Florida’s complexities. While the candidates spend months in the early, smaller primary states engaging in the retail politics of pancake breakfasts and county fairs, Florida presents distinct problems requiring a vast, developed campaign network and huge sums to advertise on the air. “It’s a state where you just can’t succeed doing that same retail politicking,” said...

Â“If that bothers you to the point that youÂ’d say, Â‘IÂ’d never vote for you,Â’â€ť he told an audience in Virginia, â€śthen youÂ’re never going to vote for me.â€ť Oh, now. There are plenty of reasons never to vote for Huck without dragging the poor DREAM kids into this.Lefty Greg Sargent says this is a big deal. Is it? I think itâ€™s a â€śbig dealâ€ť in the sense that righties who donâ€™t like Huckabee now have another reason not to like him, but realistically, how many candidates in the nascent GOP field will be coming out hard against DREAM...

At a stop on his book tour Tuesday, Mike Huckabee again defended his decision as Arkansas governor to grant the children of illegal immigrants in-state tuition at state universities. But he also went a step further, hinting that those children should be put on a path to citizenship — a position more in line with Democrats and DREAMers than some of Huckabee’s more conservative Republican peers who are also weighing bids for the presidency.

WINDSOR HEIGHTS, Iowa — When former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee walked into Walnut Creek Church here on Sunday night, fresh off his gleaming navy-blue bus, he was greeted by the crowd of suburban evangelicals as a visiting celebrity rather than a 2016 presidential candidate. Waiting in line to get their copies of the Republican’s latest book signed, a handful of the attendees shared recollections of Huckabee’s spunky 2008 bid for the White House, when he won the Iowa caucuses and seven more states before bowing out. But most of the conversations focused on Fox News, where Huckabee had been perched...

A tsunami struck the country this morning. A tsumani of stupid. I wasn't sure what to do with it all, so here are some of the best bits. Politico makes an issue of Huckabee complaining that women at Fox News swear while at work, apparently referring to them as "trashy." “My gosh, this is worse than locker-room talk,” Huckabee continued. “As we would say in the South, that’s just trashy.” Neither Huckabee nor Politico seems to have met Hillary, who is said to swear "like a sailor." Sara Nelson writes about the book in Tuesday's New York Post, revealing the...

(VIDEO-AT-LINK) In the fall of 2007, as Mike Huckabee was surging in the Iowa polls, Mitt Romney’s foundering presidential campaign dispatched a camera crew to Arkansas with the charge to produce one of the most brutal ads of the election cycle. The final product — a withering spot that tied Huckabee to a 2003 murder committed by a serial rapist who was paroled while he was governor of Arkansas — never saw the light of day. But the unaired ad, obtained this week by BuzzFeed News, highlights a potentially potent line of attack on Huckabee as he considers a 2016...

With Republicans in Congress split over the best approach to Obama's executive amnesty - and with many establishment Republicans splitting form grassroots Republicans on the issue of illegal immigration more generally - it's clear that immigration will be a hot-button primary issue in 2016. ... So where do the potential candidates stand? Here's a rundown: ...

efore Mike Huckabee ran in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Lori Jungling, a mother of four in Altoona, about 15 minutes outside Des Moines, had never been involved in a presidential campaign. Actually, Jungling had never even bothered to vote. But in 2007, the message from the Baptist minister-turned-Republican Arkansas governor made its way to Jungling’s personal faith-first foundation, and soon enough she was volunteering—a lot. Calls, emails, tweets, events. She even served as state director for Huck PAC, Huckabee’s 2008 grassroots political action committee. She didn’t take one dime. “He believes what I believe,” she told me. That’s the kind...

There are enough potential candidates for president (on the GOP side at least) that you need an Excel spreadsheet just to keep them all straight. Instead of a complicated algorithm, I've boiled each candidate down to his/her most basic elements. At the end of the day, these are the things more likely to define a presidential wannabe. It's also important to distinguish between durable traits and those that are more ephemeral. For example, low name ID is something easily overcome. But, being on the "wrong side" of the base on key issues can be a campaign killer. This is by...

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is adding a veteran GOP strategist and Iowa expert to his political team as the Wisconsin Republican considers a possible 2016 presidential bid. The addition of David Polyansky gives Walker's team a big dose of Iowa experience. The strategist helped engineer former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's win in the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses and also served as deputy campaign manager for former Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who won the 2011 Iowa straw poll.

When the Tea Party wave arrived in 2010, it swept away much of the Republican Party's existing structure, and instituted a more populist approach. But as waves tend to do, it left some even older debris in its wake. "Nullification," the theory that states can invalidate federal laws that they deem unconstitutional, had its heyday in the slavery debate that preceded the Civil War, but it has found new currency since 2010. The theory has never been validated by a federal court, yet some Republican officeholders have suggested states can nullify laws, including Senator Joni Ernst, who gave the GOP...

DES MOINES, Iowa–Saturday will be a “Who’s Who” of Republicans thinking, running or wanting you to think they are running for president in 2016. Congressman Steve King hosts his Iowa Freedom Summit in Des Moines. But pies, books, thank you’s and speeches will fill some of the time away from the summit. The speakers’ list includes some of the most well-known names on the Republican circuit. They include: Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Newt Gingrich, Marsha Blackburn, Ben Carson, Mike Lee, Carly Fiorina, Jim DeMint, John Bolton and Jim...

I'm going to confess an unpopular opinion (among liberals at least) and say that as much as I enjoy The Daily Show, Jon Stewart is usually not that good an interviewer when it comes to political figures. He's about two-thirds of a good interviewer—there are always some good questions, but he usually misses opportunities to ask critical follow-ups, and when his interviewee is struggling, he'll often jump in with a joke. Which is his job, of course—it's a comedy show, and he's a comedian—but it also has the effect of letting his subject off the hook. Last night though, Stewart...

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee—who’s mulling another run for president—says his potential rival, Jeb Bush, is a lot more conservative than people think—even further to the right than his brother, George W. Bush. Asked Tuesday on The Steve Malzberg Show on Newsmax TV whether the former Florida governor was a true conservative, Huckabee said: “Jeb will have a lot of issues that he’ll make front and center. He was an excellent governor of Florida. He was a very conservative governor of Florida. We’ve served contemporaneously during the late ’90s and early part of 2000. So when people say, well, ‘Jeb...

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C.— A crowd of tea party activists huddled outside a closed conference door here on Sunday. Many hadn’t caught a glimpse of the man they were waiting for, but they knew he was in there. “Here he comes!” someone suddenly shouted, as Ted Cruz emerged. All day long, the Republican senator from Texas was mobbed by people who thanked him for taking on Washington, jostled for pictures and sought out hugs. Even after Cruz had departed the South Carolina Tea Party Coalition Convention, his booth was consistently crowded. Ben Carson and Rick Santorum made their pitches and both...

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)On Monday’s “The Daily Show,” host Jon Stewart scolded former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) for quitting his Saturday night Fox News show to take another shot at the White House as a Republican candidate. According to Stewart, Huckabee had made a mistake and should go to back to Fox News and be a show host. Partial transcript as follows: STEWART: I want to talk to you. This is — the book is called “God, Guns, Grits and Gravy.” You have a show on Fox News — you had a show. HUCKABEE: I had a show. STEWART: How long did you...

A leading Republican presidential contender has warned against electing another Bush or Clinton to the White House, saying that installing an aristocratic “ruling class” in the United States could all but destroy the country. Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister and quick-witted populist Republican who has powerful appeal among religious conservative activists, suggested that those who “live within the enclaves of the educational and cultural establishment and elites” could not understand the lives of ordinary Americans. While not referring directly to his potential presidential election competitors, his words resonate because Jeb Bush, the son and brother of former Republican presidents, and...

Until the next turning point in world history — Ohio State’s Sept. 7 football opener at Virginia Tech — political Ohio will distract itself speculating about 2016’s presidential nominees. As every TV anchor knows, Ohio is pivotal in presidential elections. And the Constitution won’t let President Barack Obama seek a third term. Hillary Clinton likely will be Democrats’ nominee, though there’s many a slip between cup and lip: It took liberal Democrats a while, but they’ve figured out that the Clintons have no particular problem with Wall Street, assuming the right donations go to the right campaign committees. As for...

I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist — and I certainly have nothing on Paul Craig Roberts whose most recent article, helpfully disseminated by the Ron Paul Institute, claims the Charlie Hebdo attacks to be a “false flag” operation — but I can’t help but wonder if the “mainstream media” is playing up the potential presidential candidacies of Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum simply to depress Republican voters. Or, going the full tin-foil-hat route, maybe these guys are themselves double agents, part of a MoveOn.org (does it still exist?) sleeper cell which was just activated (by...

Conservative leaders this week shrugged off the sudden moves by Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney toward 2016 presidential campaigns, saying the two establishment-friendly candidates are too far out of touch with grass-roots activists to win the Republican nomination. At the same time, potential candidates with close ties to the party’s conservative base have moved to speed up their own efforts in response. Senior advisers to several of the potential conservative candidates said Wednesday that GOP insurgents will have to do more in 2016 than they did in previous cycles to make a serious run for the Republican nomination. Building a...

Reporters took joy in the first Mike Huckabee campaign in 2008. Here was a former governor from Arkansas, accompanied by Chuck Norris and only Chuck Norris, kicking ass. Mitt Romney was bussing in clean-cut college Republicans to CPAC and dropping bills everywhere, and Huckabee — the guy who had to iron his own suit — was thrashing him. There were no surly and cynical 29-year-old press handlers. There were no rotund money-raisers. It was real populism. A man and his voters. This time around, when Huckabee announced that he was considering another run for president, Washington's journalists collectively began to...

Last month, Ed Morrissey submitted the astute observation that the Republican Party is nearing a crossroads. The starkest contrasts on the 2016 debate stage are unlikely to be those highlighted by the dispute over the prudence of a policy of isolationism or interventionism abroad. Nor will it be exposed by the fight between Republicans who back proposals aimed at strengthening border security before engaging in immigration reform against those who would pursue a combined strategy. The most defined distinctions, he contends, will be drawn by the Republicans of the Bush era and those who rose to prominence under Obama. “It’s...

The primary field on the right is developing in a way that favors candidates closer to the center.Conservatives have many reasons to be pleased about their position within the GOP, even after a quixotic challenge to Speaker John Boehner from the far right failed this week. On almost all issues, the current in the party now flows powerfully toward them. Every newly elected Republican senator ran on a deeply conservative platform. But conservatives also have reason to worry about how the 2016 Republican presidential race is coalescing. The field on the right is developing in a way that could advantage...

Editor's Note: Timothy Stanley is a historian and columnist for Britain's Daily Telegraph. He is the author of the new book "Citizen Hollywood: How the Collaboration Between L.A. and D.C. Revolutionized American Politics." The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.(CNN)—Mike Huckabee is thinking about running for the presidency a second time. He's super serious about it. You can tell because not only has he quit his TV show to spend time thinking about it, and written a book ("God, Guns, Grits and Gravy," due out on January 20), but he's also booked a tour of...

Mike Huckabee’s “exploration” announcement is good news for the former Florida governor. Jeb Bush is starting the new year with a smile. Former Arkansas governor and, until last weekend, Fox News host Mike Huckabee announced he would “explore” running for president. By the way, these “exploration” announcements are yet another example of the government encouraging politicians to lie. Exploratory committees disguise the fact that a candidate is running about as well as glasses conceal Superman’s real identity. They require a willful suspension of disbelief on the part of everyone watching. Politicians like this loophole because it drags out the time...

His coalition of evangelicals could be broken up by new alternatives like Ted Cruz.Mike Huckabee loyalists still believe their guy was screwed in 2008. After pulling off an impressive upset of the better-funded Mitt Romney in the Iowa presidential caucuses, the former Arkansas governor eyed a second Republican primary win in South Carolina. His allies are convinced the Palmetto State should’ve been his for the taking – if not for the peculiar, lethargic candidacy of former Sen. Fred Thompson, a friend of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who siphoned conservative voters from Huckabee in South Carolina. Thompson’s 16 percent slice of...

Democrats would be mistaken to underestimate Mike Huckabee, perhaps the strongest Republican presidential contender. I like Mike Huckabee. A lot. He’s simply a fun, funny, principled, appealing guy. Whether or not I think he’d make a good president (and I don’t), he would definitely make a great presidential candidate. And that should have Democrats scared. During my time at Fox News, I appeared on Gov. Huckabee’s show a handful of times. We always had fiery but friendly exchanges. And behind the scenes, even more than in front of the camera, Gov. Huckabee was always affable and downright, double-me-over funny. He’s...

Aaron is much more conciliatory toward, and much less overtly terrified at the thought of a Mike Huckabee Presidential campaign. I do not share his remarkable confidence that our esteemed electorate will not happily embrace the guitar-toting Southern progressive with what is left of their hearts and minds after a long and arduous primary season. People, let's be real. Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum for that matter, aren't really Republicans. I mean, as a RINO heathen, I can obviously spot another of my species, and these two are it, though, while I'm teetering on the edge of full social anarchy,...

With the departure of Mike Huckabee, so goes Fox’s most deliciously hokey program. The former Republican Governor of Arkansas announced Saturday that he will end his weekly show to mull another presidential run. Gone are the cringe-worthy “If Hee Haw and the Family Research Council had a baby“-like moments; the surreal musical performances; the televangelical prosthelytizing on a constantly-doomed American culture; and the smarmy warnings that God is fed up with us all. We’ll also never again get the chance to hear a Fox News host deliver this sort of brilliantly awful one-liner: “I’m beginning to think theres more freedom...

As a regular presence on the Fox News Channel for six years, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, 59, hasn’t exactly been hiding in the political shadows. Though he didn’t vie for the presidency in 2012, he’s been regularly airing his conservative and evangelical views on his top-rated weekend show, Huckabee. An outspoken opponent of abortion and gay marriage, this “man of deep faith,” as he calls himself, has also been a presence on weekday radio. Now the ordained Southern Baptist minister is leaving the media lights to consider a possible run for the GOP nomination for the White House in...

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) announcement Saturday that he is leaving Fox News as he considers running for president again has regnited an old feud between himself and the conservative Club for Growth -- a spat that dates back nearly a decade. “In a year in which GOP voters appear likely to have several good pro-economic growth candidates to choose from, Mike Huckabee’s big government record would stand out from the crowd, and not in a good way," said Club for Growth president David McIntosh in a statement Monday. Huckabee, a strong retail campaigner with a loyal evangelical Christian...

Mike Huckabee is going to put down his bass and walk away from his lucrative Fox News show to at least contemplate a run for the presidency.The former Arkansas governor should be taken seriously, even if he faces an uphill battle to win the Republican nomination against opponents with superior fundraising and organization.Huckabee already exceeded expectations in his first presidential campaign back in 2008. He started as a lower-tiered candidate while pro-choice, pro-civil unions Rudy Giuliani led in all the national pollsâ€”which might tell you something about the reliability of name ID-based early polling.Giuliani didnâ€™t win a single primary, while...

There was a time when I thought that Mike Huckabee had a chance to win over enough “somewhat conservative” voters that, when added to his pre-existing base among conservative white evangelicals, would give him a good chance to win the 2016 Republican nomination. I don’t think that chance exists anymore (if it ever did). He hasn’t done any of the maneuvering he would need to do in order to expand his base of support. Thirteen months is not a long time and he has shown no inclination to make the moves he would need to make in order to expand...

There’s no doubt the Huck will need bucks if he’s going to make a successful run for the GOP nomination, but that’s not the only challenge he faces.Last night, Mike Huckabee bid adieu to his show on Fox, and made his interest in the 2016 Republican presidential nomination a matter of public record. Unlike former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Huckabee is not immediately forming an exploratory committee. Still, the prospect of a Huckabee candidacy should be taken seriously. He finished second in 2008 behind John McCain, and maintains a reservoir of good will among...

TV host and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee says he is leaving his Fox News talk show as he considers whether to seek the Republican nomination for president, a decision he expects to reach in the spring. Huckabee said Saturday night's edition of "Huckabee" would be his last as he ponders his political future. The weekly show, which is taped with a live audience and features political commentary as well as interviews with guests and musical entertainment, has been on the air for more than six years. "There has been a great deal of speculation as to whether I would...