Computing in 2020: erasing the boundary between human and PC

How will humans and computers interact in 2020? Microsoft Research organized …

It's easy to view the computer interface as nearly static. Since the advent of mouse-driven, windowed interfaces over 20 years ago, much of human-computer interface (HCI) has gone the same route. But a proliferation of mobile devices is beginning to change that and, even if that weren't the case, important differences are developing in what information is available to computers, and how we access it. In March 2007, Microsoft Research invited 45 leading researchers to discuss where HCI would be in 2020; a report summarizing their conclusions has now been made available.

The report covers more ground that can possibly be covered in a cogent summary. Fortunately, it hits some obvious points that are easily summarized. For example, it concludes that speech and gestures would play a larger role in HCI, and suggests that nerve impulses themselves would start to be used for controlling computers, especially for the disabled. It also predicts that the pervasive connectivity that enables computers to act as surrogates for human memory would, when combined with enhanced processing power, begin to allow them to supplement human reasoning.

But a number of its conclusions are less obvious. Computers are just now starting to identify us by RFID and facial recognition, and track us through GPS and closed-circuit monitoring. In essence, we're now involuntarily "interfacing" with computer systems every time we go through an airport. The experts predict that these trends will accelerate and expand, raising serious privacy issues. In some cases, such as implanted medical devices, the boundary between human and computer is nearly erased—is there really a "human interface" between a device that can monitor and manipulate heartbeats and the heart itself?

A second trend will interact and combine with this one. The report suggests that we're just entering the age of mobile computing, but, by 2020, we'll be in an era of ubiquitous computing. Instead of a few computers and devices, each user, by leveraging pervasive networking, will have access to thousands of computers, with various information and capabilities available through each.

With everything about a person being recorded, imaged, or twittered, and all of that information constantly available, the report claims that we're about to reach the end of the ephemeral. By having medical information, personal photos, and even minute-by-minute thoughts permanently stored online, people will voluntarily provide access to more information than government spies or advertising agencies could ever succeed in gathering.

To cope with these changes, the researchers suggest that careful thought will have to go into allowing people to be notified and opt out of pervasive recording. Referring to GPS navigation systems, the authors note, "if people are prepared to stupidly obey instructions given out by simple computers, this should make us even more concerned about the relationship between people and ever more complex computers as we move toward 2020."

To get there, the report urges adding a fifth step to the traditional study/design/build/evaluate design process: understand. It's not enough, the authors argue, to simply design an object to perform a task. Instead, in an era when information from that task may be shared and permanently stored, designers will have to take into account human values, such as privacy, personal security, the distinction between work and personal life, etc. We're entering a brave new world, and HCI will have to adapt to let its occupants navigate it.