Night Watch: DELHI – India Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma stated that Delhi will present to Islamabad evidence gathered by the police in Mumbai that India claims proves that terrorist groups based in Pakistan caused the Mumbai train explosions on July 11. “This is a very serious development. Very soon we will decide what our response would be to the new developments.” He said that Delhi will watch Islamabad very closely. [WEBINDIA]

I suspect he and Delhi assume Islamabad will do as it has always done for years, deny any responsibility and support for Islamic groups fighting for the independence of Jammu-Kashmir. The Islamic uprising began in November 1989 but for the past two years Islamic groups have extended the war to include terrorist attacks in other parts of India. Delhi has also experienced attacks as have Varanasi besides Mumbai. Indian security services have stated publicly that Islamic groups are preprared to use terrorist cells to hit targets all over the country. Last month there was even a terrorist attack on a Muslim mosque in Malegaon, which readers know I suspect was caused by Tehran, and its crisis creation foreign policy, in order to create an atmosphere of religious hatred to cause more instablilty inside India.

Tehran-Islamabad have made no secret of their military security agreement. It is impossible for Pakistan to assume responsibility for the train attacks. Islamabad would also never consider Delhi’s constant demand for Pakistan to close the more than 50 Islamic militant bases in Pakistan controlled Kashmir. This year Delhi has now made the same demands on Dhaka because of the Islamic militant units in Bangladesh that are preparing to attack India from another front, stretching Indian forces.

Delhi’s response will be more than diplomatic this time. October begins the dry season on the subcontinent and Southeast Asia, the best weather for military operations. Islamabad has said all along if Delhi launches attacks on Islamic bases inside Pakistan they will be forced to respond.

For Tehran and Islamic extremists this is the best psychological-spritual time since it is the beginning of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which always means an increase in extremist activity. Tehran has been preparing to join the next Pakistan/India war since the end of the Iran/Iraq War in 1988. Tehran witnessed the spread of Islamic radicalism, during that eight year conflict, as a result of the Khomeini revolution in 1979 and they know it has shifted the balance of power in Islamabad’s favor.

Islamabad has never had this kind of support before and they intend to take advantage of it. Delhi had a decided military advantage when the conflict remained just between the two of them. Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf has just returned from his international book tour which he used to say goodbye to the West and any semblance of international cooperation with them. He is a veteran of two of the Pakistan/India wars, 1965 and 1971. With the peace agreement he just signed with tribal groups in North Waziristan he can now shift 80,000 troops and concentrate entirely on India.

Willard Payne is an international affairs analyst who specializes in International Relations. A graduate of Western Illinois University with a concentration in East-West Trade and East-West Industrial Cooperation, he has been providing incisive analysis to NewsBlaze. He is the author of Imagery: The Day Before.