Report: Rising auto thefts in Monterey County may not be related to prison realignment

Critics could point out auto thefts in Monterey County have gone up dramatically since state prisoner realignment took effect and blame it on shorter jail terms for many.

But a new study says the two factors may not be related.

A report released this week by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice specifically addressed higher auto theft rates that have increased in the state.

"CJCJ found no correlation between high realignment rates and motor vehicle theft," the organization said in an emailed statement. "There was also no difference in violent crime rates between high-realignment and low-realignment counties."

Realignment, which took effect in October 2011, keeps many of those convicted of non-serious, nonviolent and non-sexual offenses in county jail instead of state prison. Counties now run post-release community supervision of offenders.

In general, realignment has meant fewer people in prison and shorter jail terms for many.

Last week, Gov. Jerry Brown met with Monterey County law enforcement leaders to hear "how realignment is working" — a question many localities find difficult to answer.

"It's difficult to say that the crime rate is affected by realignment, as pointed out in that study," said Monterey County Probation Chief Manuel Real. "Property crime is increasing. Whether that's related to substance abuse issues or realignment (is unclear). There's shift from oxycontin to heroin — and there's a lot of (methamphetamine) out on the streets. Whether it's folks trying to support their habit, we don't know."

The new report appears to contradict a widely reported December 2013 study by the Public Policy Institute of California.

That study concluded no evidence linked realignment to serious violent crimes, but said there was "robust" evidence linking realignment to property crimes, especially auto theft, which across the state increased almost 15 percent between 2011 and 2012 — a total of about 24,000 stolen cars in a year.

But by looking closely at which counties are implementing realignment at high or low levels, and comparing the levels to their crimes rates, the new CJCJ report reaches a very different conclusion.

"California's 58 counties vary dramatically in their implementation of realignment and in their respective crime rates," the report states. "There are no conclusive trends demonstrating a causal relationship between realignment and crime, even among counties in close geographic proximity."

Monterey County being a case in point.

Monterey is considered a low-realignment county, with 10.5 percent of its felons qualifying as "realigned prisoners." That is below the state average of 12.1 percent and well below high-realignment counties that average more than 15 percent.

But even with more of its inmates serving time in prison rather than local jail or supervision, Monterey County's auto thefts increased by 27 percent after realignment.

"Folks are getting out of jail sooner now because of (more) credits," Real said. "But among the folks that we're supervising, I'm not noticing an uptick in violations."

While the new report shows similarly mixed reports around the state, it doesn't mean there is or isn't any connection between realignment and crime, just that more and better research is needed.

The Monterey County District Attorney's Office has undertaken its own realignment research, which looks at individuals who were sentenced or supervised under realignment's rules and tracks whether they are convicted of new crimes.

It is a method that promises to be more accurate than simply analyzing overall crimes rates, which can be affected by many factors.

In Sacramento, the Board of State and Community Corrections, which oversees realignment statewide, hired a research team to assess local implementation of the plan.

One problem since realignment started is research methods to study it have varied wildly.

While Monterey County will measure recidivism by criminal convictions in court, many reports such as CJCJ's rely on FBI data, which tallies crimes reported by law enforcement agencies.

There just isn't much data to go on yet.

"The real issue, now that we're tracking it, is how we go forward," said Monterey County Assistant District Attorney Berkley Brannon.

The more years for which data is available, he said, the more accurate any conclusions might be.

"In the interim," the CJCJ report concludes, "policymakers should be cautious of adopting statewide policies that modify elements of realignment based on narrow and anecdotal evidence from just one or a handful of counties."

The report cites the example of Assembly Bill 1449, introduced earlier this month, "which seeks to return individuals to state prison who under realignment would be managed locally."

The bill would fundamentally alter realignment, the report says, "despite the lack of a clear pattern on how, if at all, it has impacted county crime rates."

Real agrees that trying to overhaul realignment now would be a mistake and any changes "should be incremental and should be thoughtful."

No matter what, he said, the county needs to pay attention to factors that lead offenders back to prison.

He said 70 percent of prison inmates who come under county supervision when they are released have a high need for substance abuse treatment.

"All the research and evidence indicates supervision tied to treatment is what works," Real said. "And that's what we're trying to do."