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Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by Jpup

What does that supposed to mean?

I'll ask again. Is it possible that you are wrong?

Is it possible you are wrong? It isnt got nothing to do with who's right or who's wrong... guys who crunch the numbers always think theyre right and guys who like to give the team fair shake think theyre right as well. We will find out together then at the end of the year we're still looking at a team thats around .500. Give me a break.

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by icehole3

Is it possible you are wrong? It isnt got nothing to do with who's right or who's wrong... guys who crunch the numbers always think theyre right and guys who like to give the team fair shake think theyre right as well. We will find out together then at the end of the year we're still looking at a team thats around .500. Give me a break.

Sure, it's possible, but there is a mountain of evidence to suggest otherwise. You never did answer the question, so I'll take that to mean that you could not possibly be wrong.

"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

1. Defense up the middle is important, especially in centerfield, so how does Taveras' defense rate: Excellent, above average, slightly above average, or overrated because of his speed and lack of offense?

Generally regarded as an average defender. Middle of the road.

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

2. Taveras' speed is highly touted, but there's this old school idea that "you can't steal first." Does Taveras get on base often enough for his speed to make a difference?

His SB% has hovered near 75% for three out of 4 years. 75% is generally regarded as the minimum acceptable rate. His EqA, a measure of his production including base running, has once only reached above .260. 260 EqA is considered average.

No. His speed does not offset his low OBP. In fact, it only make him less valuable because the few times he does get on base he runs himself into more outs.

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

4. If Taveras is closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron, will there be enough offense on the corners to make up for the light-hitting supposedly decent defense up the middle?

Misses the point.

The Reds need additional offense. They can't afford to be carrying a player right now (especially since SS is likely to be another black-hole on the team).

a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

A) Can you point me to anything that says that Willy T will be a platoon player?

b) he doesn't have any kind of platoon split, he's equally horrible against both RHP and LHP.

Dickerson against RH pitching last year: .309/.411/.654

I'm not praising the deal, I'm just trying to get the metaphorical guns out of everyone's hand. It's really not a big deal. People just love to overreact.

"I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by guttle11

And that keeps them from acquiring those good players how exactly?

The answer is that it doesn't. There are still options in LF, and options for the SS positions. They still have pieces to work a trade if they so choose. That will determine the Reds offseason, not signing a guy for a likely platoon in CF.

The Reds could have made the decision to bring in a RF w/ pop and a LF w/ pop to play on either side of Jay Bruce in CF (while he's still young enough to man the position, defensively).

Instead, they brought in a judy-hitting CF w/o plus-defense skills (again, unlike the defense Patterson played last year), which now necessitates Bruce going to RF. Their options for bringing run producers to the ballclub now will either have to come in LF or SS. Last I looked, there weren't any run producing SS available via Free Agency -- and it'll cost more than the Reds have on the farm (likely) to bring one in via trade. So really, that means the only option left is to bring in a big LF bat....

...Which will put the Reds right back where they started last season before they traded Adam Dunn. And, that's assuming they get a LF bat that is as productive as Dunn was.

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Sure, it's possible, but there is a mountain of evidence to suggest otherwise. You never did answer the question, so I'll take that to mean that you could not possibly be wrong.

You dont know me. I'll admit when Im wrong. All I said is there's nothing to be wrong about at this point. I said Dunn will get signed for less than 10 million a year and if Im wrong I'll eat BBQed crow if thats what you want... you dont know me guy. I cant believe this place, guys here hated Patterson now they want him instead of Taveras. Give the dude a chance at least before you hate a person.

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Patterson has a better career OPS+ than Taveras and its not all that close.

As for Taveras coming off his career worst with his career best before comment.... the problem is his career best still didn't make him an average major league center fielder. We just gave a 2 year deal to a guy whose career best year made him slightly below average at the second weakest hitting position on the field.

I don't argue that. There are lots of players who have an OPS better than Taveras. There are also lots of players who play better defense than he does. And a VAST majority of those players are already inked with clubs or are overpriced or aren't interested in short term deals. OPS is a stat that directly points to the two biggest weaknesses of Taveras' game. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. Two flaws. Hmmm...I seem to recall a player who's looked upon as a near god on this site who had a few flaws too. Tons of K's, porous defense, can't hit for average...hmmm, who could THAT have been? Nobody's saying that this signing is going to change the future of the club. It's a short term FA signing. It gives us depth at a position we're desperately short at right now. And it's also a position that is very weak in the market right now.

Willie Bloomquist
Jim Edmonds
Gabe Kapler
Mark Kotsay
Scott Posednik

Not alot to choose from there. I'd rather take the shot on the 26 year old kid with lightning bolts for legs.

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by Raisor

As bad as Castro was, he never came close to getting 650 PA's at one time for the Reds. Most he ever stunk up the place was for 350 PA's.

Willy T might get 700.

If that happens, I'd expect a negative RAP near or slightly worse than -20. There's virtually no chance that Taveras will be able to repeat his 2007 BABIP (.371). Without that, 700 PA projects to -18.81 over his career and should he repeat 2008 it's -24.98. Basically, if he plays that much he'll do just about as much damage as Corey Patterson did in limited PT. When factoring in defense, it's probably a little worse.

I don't really think folks understand how bad this could get.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
--Ted Williams

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

OPS is a stat that directly points to the two biggest weaknesses of Taveras' game. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. Two flaws.

Dude, those two flaws? A players two primary offensive functions are to avoid outs (OBP) and acquire as many bases as possible while avoiding outs (SLG).

When your "two flaws" are that you stink at doing both of your main jobs? Well, running fast isn't going to make you an acceptable baseball player.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
--Ted Williams

Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

Originally Posted by icehole3

You dont know me. I'll admit when Im wrong. All I said is there's nothing to be wrong about at this point. I said Dunn will get signed for less than 10 million a year and if Im wrong I'll eat BBQed crow if thats what you want... you dont know me guy. I cant believe this place, guys here hated Patterson now they want him instead of Taveras. Give the dude a chance at least before you hate a person.

We don't hate the player, just his game.

Patterson had power potential and plus defense.

Taveras has... speed.

While we are all blowing up over this, lets examine Taveras carefully.

He's a below average defender based on most modern defensive metrics.

He's a below average hitter in the power department.

He's below average at getting on base.

Except for his career year, he's about a .270 hitter that makes an out 70% of the time.

he's got a what, 75% career SB%? meh. His SB% did spike upward last year, making it an abnormality.

oh yeah... this is a great signing. I'm just glad there isn't a player option for a third year.

Suck it up cupcake.

Raisel Iglesias is The Demon's Head. Accept this nickname as bestowed.

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