MNF Chaser: How to bet SF-WAS

November 25, 2013

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ATS picks

Dave Tuley says: "I would normally be all over the home underdog on Monday night (though they haven't been as strong of a play in recent years), but I have no confidence in the Washington defense holding down the San Francisco offense. In contrast, the 49ers' defense has been solid in the two losses since its bye despite losing both (10 points to the Panthers, 23 to the Saints in New Orleans)."

ATS pick: Pass

Sports Boss says: "This is another interesting game this week as we have the Niners, who are often unpredictable and continue winning games without performing impressively in the box score, versus the Redskins, who are performing well in the box score but haven't been able to secure many wins so far in 2013. To give some color on these two teams, according to my performance ratings, San Francisco is currently No. 10 versus the No. 2 strength of schedule; on the flip side, Washington is No. 11 versus the No. 9 SOS. So I have these two teams as performing on essentially the same level versus a very similar schedule strength -- which may surprise people.

"One big difference between the two teams is San Francisco plus-3 and Washington minus-6 in turnover margin. According to my home/road splits, these two teams again are almost identical in performance rating, although the Skins have played the toughest home schedule to date. Really, any way I break this game down, it suggests these two teams are very similar. But that being said, it's tough to put any cash on the Skins with the organization seemingly a disaster and their season pretty much flushed after coming up short last week in Philly."

ATS pick: Pass (Redskins if forced into a pool-play selection)

Wunderdog says: "The San Francisco 49ers' offense hasn't quite lived up to the billing this season. One reason is that they have not faced many cupcake defenses. The only team in the bottom seven in points allowed that they faced (Jacksonville) resulted in San Francisco's highest output of the season at 42 points. They have had to face some tough defenses the past two weeks with New Orleans and Carolina. That won't be the case in this one, as the Redskins' defensive unit has allowed an unthinkable 31.1 points per game. Over the past two seasons, San Francisco is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus teams that allow 24-plus points per game. The Niners' defense is shoring up, having allowed just 14.3 points per game in their last three.

"Washington has faced seven teams this season that are .500 or better on the season, and it has been outscored in these games by 10.6 ppg, going 1-6 in those games with all six losses by six points or more. The Niners are the new kings of 'Monday Night Football' at 21-5 ATS in their last 26 such games. This team has roared back after a futile passing game in which they threw for 150 yards or less, going 9-1-1 ATS in their next game. The Niners are 23-13 ATS as a favorite under coach Jim Harbaugh. The Skins are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight (games) within the conference, and they are simply overmatched here. Lay the points with San Francisco."