Crawford calls 'Cardinal Climax' - Dooom on tap

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Is "all hell" about to break loose? One veteran letter thinks so -- and it predicted the Crash of 2008.

Unlike almost everyone else, Arch Crawford's Crawford Perspectives had a fabulous 2008. ( See Jan. 9, 2009, column.) And when I last checked in with it in early 2010, Crawford was predicting a mid-summer massacre ( See Jan. 14 column.)

Well?

Now, in its monthly issue published in early July, Crawford predicts "ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE" -- beginning, as a matter of fact, on Monday July 26, 2010.

Crawford means it. The letter has been 200% short since June 7, with stops at 11,466 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 10,495, +70.61, +0.68%) and 11.84.56 on the S&P 500 (SPX 1,112, +9.15, +0.83%) .

Well?

Well, the problem is that Crawford is an astrology letter. This sends many readers (and some editors) into foaming fits. My impeccably scientific attitude: We should just look at its results.

But the opening of Crawford's July issue is definitely the sort of thing that upsets people: "NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE JULY! We mean, of course, the planetary pictures in the sky which are developing towards the tightest harmonic alignments in the most potent areas of the zodiacal circle ever recorded in Earth's written history. These portend increasing and maximizing intensity and rapidity of 'change' on every level of existence: mineral, vegetable, animal, human and spirit. Will Capitalism survive? Will Democracy survive? Will our markets survive? Will governments survive? Will humanity survive? Will Earth survive?

"We don't know, but we'll be SHORT for it!"

Crawford -- along with other astrologers, who however are merely worried about nuclear war, the end of the world etc. -- is impressed with an imminent unusual alignment that apparently involves five key planets.

He writes: "Astrologers call it the 'Cardinal Climax.' It is considered to be the most powerful and important planetary alignment of the modern era. Perhaps it heralds the beginning of the real 'Aquarian Age' or the end of the 'Mayan Calendar.' (After all, what's a few months in a 25,600-year cycle?) These energies actually maximize from July 30 through August 3. There have been 'shadows' preceding and will be echoes afterwards for quite some time."

Crawford adds: "This huge alignment will be followed by a Full Moon on the Fall Equinox and a Lunar Eclipse on the Winter Solstice. We expect the depth and scope of dislocations during this period to exceed anything we have ever witnessed, both in otherwise civilized interaction among nations, and likely our fill in natural disasters."

"We continue to recommend extreme caution and proper emergency measures such as extra food, water, medicines and cash over the next 24 months in particular. Do NOT wait any longer!!"

Let the record, show, however, that Crawford's last issue also repeatedly allowed for what it described as "some attempts to correct an oversold market sometime in July."

What are Crawford's results? Over the year to date through June, the letter is down 0.4% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, definitely better than the negative 5.8% of the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.

Crawford did underperform the market in 2009. ( See Dec. 24, 2009, column.) But even so, over the past three years the letter is up 9.42% annualized versus negative 9.36% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.

Over the many years that it has been followed by Hulbert, Crawford's record has been checkered but interspersed with occasional bursts of eerie prescience. Which is it this time?

Crawford Perspectives usually publishes on the first Monday of each month. But its next issue is delayed until August 9 -- possibly to save mailing costs if the world ends.

I really am tired of hearing this BS nonsense from people who "predicted the crash of 2008" A 6 year old could have predicted that crash, now all of a sudden everyone is an expert. Meredith Whitney is a guru. She was a nobody and still is. I dont know whats worse, all of these people giving them credit, or people listening to them.

I really am tired of hearing this BS nonsense from people who "predicted the crash of 2008" A 6 year old could have predicted that crash, now all of a sudden everyone is an expert. Meredith Whitney is a guru. She was a nobody and still is. I dont know whats worse, all of these people giving them credit, or people listening to them.

More...

Agree,

When I go to the range, I often miss the inner circle, but usually one in ten hit!!!! Well, with enough of these laughable predictions, sooner or later they may be on target. Seems the business channel hardly ever mentions all of the flawed predictions after the fact.

Quote from SCI new york:I really am tired of hearing this BS nonsense from people who "predicted the crash of 2008" A 6 year old could have predicted that crash, now all of a sudden everyone is an expert. Meredith Whitney is a guru. She was a nobody and still is. I dont know whats worse, all of these people giving them credit, or people listening to them.

I've found the cycle of grasshoppers-to-ants-to-crabgrass in my backyard is much more reliable than the astrological stuff...especially in July. My Insect-Weed barometer says stocks are going up for at least another month or two.

Seriously, any advisor/system that missed part of 2008's crash and caught part of the 2009 rally is beating the market over the last 3 years. How has this guy done over the last couple of decades? Did Jupiter tell him to stay put in stocks in the 1990s? My ants did..

FWIW (not much), I heard Larry Pesavento, another astrological guy, say July's market action was crucial earlier this summer. Since stocks have done so well this month, I assume he is more bullish than Crawford

"...FWIW (not much), I heard Larry Pesavento, another astrological guy, say July's market action was crucial earlier this summer. Since stocks have done so well this month, I assume he is more bullish than Crawford

More...

Pesavento.... not bullish, but is "concerned and nervous" about this July strength... says, "if rally continues past Wednesday, which he gives odds of 1000/1 against, he'll have to concede his take on all of this [period, crash] is wrong..."

"1000/1"... really?

OTOH... he caught the April high on the button. If you trade off of his methodology, you give his calls the benefit of the doubt... up to a point.