No, Evans claims to have been able to pin down Jones once the takedown had occurred. Can you say Lay n Pray? I think that is his best hope!

Looking forward to this however, let the chips fall where they may.

It looks like an entertaining card overall. Good heavyweight bouts, Rory Mac and Che Mills will be a fight!
Looking forward to seeing Hominick redeem himself.
And we are all supposed to be watching the rise of Maximo Blanco so it will be a cool night in Austin after the Texas State Championship Grappling Tournament. Got room for us?

Honestly, I don't see how Evans has any greater chance than any given fighter does on any given night. He's arguably at the head of a pack that is still staring at Jones' back from a distance. Jon Jones has left the rest of the division behind.

They used to train together, like 18ish months ago. It wasn't for very long, and then Rashad moved his camp to a different location for whatever reason. So whatever the circumstances surrounding Rashad's oft-told story, One Time at Jackson's Camp, that was against pre-Ryan Bader Jon Jones. We've seen how much Bones has progressed since then.

Rashad did well against Tito (but that's Tito) and his win over Phil Davis was both impressive and not impressive enough; which is to say that I don't see someone taking Jones to a decision and winning three rounds, and Rashad didn't show enough killer instinct to actually finish Davis despite having him in multiple (2 or 3?) crucifixes and despite not facing any significant threat from Phil's standup.

Rashad is a great fighter in a division that has a sublime champion and--while he might very well surprise me--I can't see much of a scenario where he manages to win the belt.

I would like to think that Rashad will surprise us all, that he will come out of nowhere with some dramatic and game changing strategy that no one has thought of up until now. I would like to think that suddently his clinch game, or his subs, or some other aspect of his fighting that Jones is not expecting, will have secretly improved in leaps and bounds and that Rashad will shake up the light heavyweight world.

I'd like to think those things, but I don't. My prediction is that Jones will be really hesitant to commit at first, until he stuffs one of Rashad's takedowns, then he's gunna beat the snot out of him.

I'm typically under informed compared to some of you MMA scientists out there, but it seems like the only chance Evans has is if his mental game is fine tuned.

I say this even though I seem to recall that Evans used to win out in sparring with Jones when they were both in Jackson's camp. Am I wrong in remembering their history that way?

Depends on whose stories you believe. Rashad obviously has better wrestling pedigree but Jones is a bit more physically imposing...Heck Rashad even talked about he would have went to middleweight in order to avoid fighting Jones on a recent interview. I would expect that to happen if he loses this fight.

I'd like to think those things, but I don't. My prediction is that Jones will be really hesitant to commit at first, until he stuffs one of Rashad's takedowns, then he's gunna beat the snot out of him.

sounds about right.
if one part of his game doesn't cut it, he'll switch strategies and dominate.
the kid's just too versatile.

Evans lol, yeah he has a good chance, chance of getting his ass handed to him in the first round. This fight will be like the lamb vs. The lion. The only chance I see Evans having is if Jones slips on some spit and knocks himself out, ok yes I said it the ring itself has a better chance than Evans.