Land Use in the European Union by 2020

Recent revolutionary changes in European agricultural policies imply dramatic
shifts in future land use needs. Even a superficial examination of recent trends
would suggest that large parts of current agricultural land will not be needed in
the future, and the idea of a land surplus in the European Union has been
repeated more insistently in recent literature (Edwards, 1986; Lee, 1987; North,
1988; inter alia). However, some authors argue that, with declining profitability,
the removal of inputs and resources will result in a less intensive production
process and significant areas of land are unlikely to leave agricultural production
(Bowers, 1988; Harvey and Whitby, 1988; Harvey, 1991; Swinbank, 1992).
The importance of assessing the degree of pressure placed on agricultural
land in the medium term must not be underestimated. Land is a non-renewable
resource and, as a result, land use planning is long-term in nature. In addition,
land use demand changes incrementally because of rigidities and inertia. There
is consequently a lag between the setting and implementation of a policy and
its effect. As a result, accurate predictions of land use trends have an immediate
and immense value to setting good policy.
This paper presents the results of forecasts for land use change in the EU-91
to the year 2020. The study addresses the need of policy makers to acquire
information about the future implications of current land use trends, by developing
an econometric model to forecast future land use. Because of the more
appropriate methodology adopted, the forecasts of land use change estimated
in this study