Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

Well Henrique, get ready for them, because that is exactly what is coming next year. And the sooner the better for Chavismo. And you my Dear readers, better wake up and realize that next year, Chavismo is likely to attempt another widespread change of the Constitution. (Same for MCM, soon communes will be in the Constitution)

People forget that you can only ask for such change once within a term, but that term ends in January and a new one begins. It is 2007 all over again, with communes and Vice-Presidential succession included. And this time, Chavismo is likely to ask the voters to give communal power, whatever that is supposed to imply and mean, Constitutional rank.

And what it probably means is that communal power will legislate, decide and execute everything. Sort of Governors, with legislative power and the money needed to get things done.
And the Governors and Mayors? Well, very well thank you, they will be bypassed and ignored and the opposition, however major or meager its victory’s in December, will be left holding the bag with little to show for it.

Oh yeah! Once we are there, Chavismo is likely to change how the President’s inability to serve is handled, including the the Vice-President will replace him for the remainder of the six year term and no elections will be held until 2019. This is really the key, what is truly important. Thus, in this way Chavismo guarantees that it will be in power, Hugo or no Hugo, until 2019.

Not bad, no?

And I am sure there will be others proposals to confuse people along the way and that is what will probably be discussed this weekend, what other junk can be included to make Chavismo stronger and weaken the opposition’s power, however weak it may already be. And Capriles and others don’t want to say what they know it is coming, so as not to discourage the electorate form voting in December. But the name and the words of this weekend’s Chavista gathering confirm everything I have been hearing in the last two weeks: Chavismo is looking to this Constituent process after the December regional elections, when it will simply wipe out however little the opposition may gain in the vote for Governors and insure its true hold in power given Chavez’ health problems.

Add the succession change in the Constitution and Chavismo has a lock in power in Venezuela for at least another six years. Whether you like it or not.

We knew it was coming. No sense in lamenting. What is the strategy to counter it? I’m so tired of all the supersmart people with years of experience, political science degrees, PHDs, the statistical geniuses celebrating each other’s incisive puns in this and other blogs but constantly whining around about how morally corrupt Venezuela is, blah, blah, blah. What is all your knowledge worth if you don’t use it to solve the problem? Put your brilliant brains to work and design a feasible step by step strategy to counter castrochavismo’s and find a way to implement it. NOW!

Well there does seem to be a lot of truth in what you say. Venezuela spent a fortune in the pre Chavez days sending well connected youngsters to civilised parts of the world for an education.

It’s clear now that they weren’t the brightest but most people knew that to be the case. And the resultant twaddle is what you get Gold, by the bucketload.

Loads of pre pagado qualifications and you end up with a bus driver as the VP.

And can anyone stop this rush to the bottom ? Only when the Cuban family feud ends. And then the Venezuelans should look towards the Negritos of the Caribbean. Although those islands are not perfect they seem to be closer to reality than the parallel latino universe which seems to have overindulged in education.

Am I correct that one important distinction between the two referenda of 2007 and 2009 was precisely the question of the councils (soviets)? The councils were included in the former referendum, and rejected, but not included in the 2009 referendum, which passed?

In 2,000 Chavez got his new constitution, with the only thing he cared about “Reelection” that constitution was considered by many to be one of the best in Latin America, if not the world.

But like the Trojan horse of antiquity it has served its purpose and out of the belly of the horse comes the “long knives” looking to kill the last of the pitiful Venezuelans freedoms. So all you Cassandras can do your lamenting, hand ringing and pullout what’s left of your hair. but the fact remains you have an ignorant population and Chavez knows his sheep well.

Is Chavez really interested in pushing the vicepresident and comuna agenda? All he does with that is make himself expendable (VP) and lose control (comuna). I believe that Chavez only cares about himself, nothing else.

Also, PSUV would win with the succesion/VP law (at least a part of it), but not with the comuna law

This is a little off-topic, but I couldn’t wait for Miguel to post something on the selection of Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil to the UN Human Rights Council. Today was the day that I fully realized how the UN can have a “doble discurso” with respect to human rights by having members who are some of the biggest violators of human rights in that Council, e.g. Ghadaffi’s Libya. And to think that I used to work there. By the way, I have been toying with a suspicion I have had in my mind for the last two years and call me paranoid, but I see that there’s a plan going on between Argentina and Venezuela. It goes like this: Chavez and Cristina have been very chummy since her husband died, and she’s following some of the authoritarian policies that Chavez has started in Venezuela–re-election to the Presidency, change in the Constitution to that effect, persecution of the press, etc. Call me crazy, but I think both of these crooks’ plan is to win re-election, announce that they will get married, he will be president of one of the richest Latin American nations in the north and she in the south, and they will start a movement to make him the Simon Bolivar of the 21st century, unite the two ends of South America and try to dominate the other countries in between, with Castro advising them on how to do it. What they will do with Brazil and Argentina, I haven’t figured it out yet. Is that too far-fetched???

Yes, it is. I am puzzled you didn’t see before what the UN was, from the start.

Cristina marrying Hugo? No way. That would freak out most Argentinians, even peronistas a ultranza. She actually dislikes him, for several reasons I won’t go into. They are indeed ‘chumps’ in their lust for power and influence, that’s all. The indefinite re-election of presidents (something so-called political scientists hardly discuss) is now seen as the way to go for every single one of Chavez’s allies. Only in Brazil they can’t do that. Instead, they aim for the party carousel: now Dilma, then Lula.

USA is boosting Oil Production by 2020 or sooner, forcing world Oil prices to move well bellow today’s level and placing the US ahead of the Middle East. The era of energy independence for the US is coming and moving fast.
What plans does Venezuela have to boost oil production if the infrastructure is everyday in collapse and deterioration and most oil produced is already
in debt with China, ?
What is the future for Venezuela under this situation ?
More debt for future generations !.
The question is not: Who is going to stop this ?,
but When someone will stop it !

You are operating off of the false assumption that Venezuela is following some sort of coherent plan. Venezuela will change from its current path only once it becomes absolutely inevitable. Venezuela recently had a chance to possibly start down another road, and neglected to do so.

About the local communes, ostensibly the balloting for leadership will be secret, if this really is so, there is the possibility of the opposition actually getting to run some of them??

The problem is of course that funding for communes so far as I can tell is at the whim of your local lords (ahem PSUV governors), so is completely irregular/. Even if the balloting is secret, people will get the message that they only get cash if they elect the right guy. It will be even more of a patronage system than the current governorship where at least there is a pre-defined revenue sharing system – not the case for communes. Venezuela seems to be more and more on the path to becoming a dictatorship with occasional elections (a la the ancient Roman Republic where dictatorship was a temporary position). As such, there’s no chance at all for a grassroots movement to diversify Venezuela away from oil production.