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7.18.2012

Let's Make a Deal Wrap-up!

Our trade market is less volatile
than this one

It's time to wrap up this blog's trade deadline speculation series/gameshow in the making: Let's Make a Deal. Where I offer you trade returns based on the historical equivalent of current Twins. First, let's check out how the fans did in making a deal for Francisco Liriano in what was nearly a unanimous verdict (until my friend Aly called in a last second vote for door #2).

No one, and I mean, NO ONE, wanted to keep Frankie or trade for door #3. (Since Door #3 contained three hitters and zero pitchers, it makes sense. And since those three hitters were actually career minor leaguers Dustin Brisson, Luis Alfonso Garcia and Rick Asadoorian, it seems like a pretty good pick.)

Now, since I know Aly reads this blog, I hate to tell her that she managed to pull a pretty foul Zonko behind door #2. Yes, in exchange for Frankie and three more starters Aly would have gotten John Christensen, Wes Gardner, LaSchelle Tarver and Calvin Schiraldi. (And hey, since Aly's a Red Sox fan, that Calvin Schiraldi burn stings even more)

But the vast majority of votes (5 in fact) went for door #1. And though the hitters (Corey Pointer and Ron White) are nothing to write home about, that up and down starter just happened to be Jason Schmidt. Not a hall of famer, but not chopped liver either. Nicely done Armchair GM's nicely done.

Sadly, as much fun as I've had creating these silly little mental exercises in the last few weeks, I'm actually out of reasonable research. I did look into the yield on Ryan Doumit and Carl Pavano...but neither one is getting a peep or a squeak of interest on the trading block (a two year extension and long DL stint probably have something to do with that). And I don't quite have the time to research potential Josh Willingham trade equivalents (not that Terry Ryan would trade him for anything less than immediate access fountain of youth/catcher knees).

Thanks to the magic of internet voting, the popular opinion of the Twins blogosphere has been heard, and when it comes four Twins trading chips, they've decided to:

Keep Denard Span (passing on three packages with minimal return)

Trade Matt Capps (for a package highlighted by an Edwin Jackson in the making)

Keep Justin Morneau (passing on a package that included young Steve Finley/Curt Schilling)

Trade Francisco Liriano (for a package highlighted by Jason Schmidt)

It seems that, for the fans, the best way to build the pitching staff is to subtract some pitching from the current roster, and keep the hitters. And to be honest, if you were a time traveller who told me that we could trade an irrelevant reliever and an inconsistent starter for two future all stars I would make that deal in a heart beat. But, unfortunately, Terry Ryan can't make trades with a way-back machine and has to deal with the present market (one filled with surprisingly suspicious buyers and a noticable lack of young Jason Schmidts).

To wrap up, I thought it would be instructive to see the general returns on the different types of Twins bargaining chips; the sort of average return to compare against any deals Terry Ryan makes in the next few weeks.

Players like Denard Span generally brought back two near major-league reader prospects: usually an outfielder and a pitcher (even mix between relievers and starters)

Players like Matt Capps generally brought back between two and three prospects (usually between A and AAA) including one player Baseball America put in it's preseason top 100.

Players like Justin Morneau generally brought back three prospects (usually between A and AA) including an infielder, an outfielder and a starting pitcher.

Players like Francisco Liriano generally brought back three to four prospects (usually between AA and AAA) including multiple position players and one pitching prospect.

And just so my work doesn't go for naught, here's what I saw for the other researched trades

Players like Carl Pavano generally brought back one to two prospects (between A and AAA) usually entirely made of pitching talent.

Players like Ryan Doumit generally brought back two to three prospects (between AA and AAA) including one starter and one reliever.

So if that's par for the course, it's time for Terry Ryan to tee it up and go for the green and other cliched golf metaphors as well.

Thanks for trying your hand at this purely speculative enterprise. I wondered how well Twins fans would do at making the deals themselves, and was generally impressed. If there's interest out there, I'll certainly try doing this all again next year (when we'll likely have a different bargain bin to offer up).

But I think whatever you think of this blog series we can all agree on the best part of it: RIDICULOUS TERRY RYAN PHOTOSHOPS!

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