The Big Story: Will football be extinct in 50 years?

Sport unlikely to disappear, but major long-term changes possible as concern mounts over concussions, other injuries

Texas’ David Ash (14) is hit by Kansas State’s Ryan Mueller (44) and Jonathan Truman (21) after he scrambles for a first down as Kansas State’s Ryan Mueller (44) defends during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 21, 2013, in Austin, Texas. Ash Ash, who missed the previous game with concussion-like symptoms, passed for 166 yards in the first half but missed the second with a new head injury.

AP Photo/Eric Gay

In this Sept. 7, 2013 file photo, West Virginia safety Karl Joseph (8) and linebacker Doug Rigg (47) converge to tackle Oklahoma running back Brennan Clay (24) in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Norman, Okla. Rigg remembers trying to tackle Clay. Then he saw trainer Dave Kerns standing over him, telling him to wake up. A concussion will sideline Rigg when the Mountaineers (1-1) play Georgia State (0-2) on Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013, but initially it looked like the injury could have been a lot worse.

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki, File

As it concerns the debate about the safety of football, Dan Jones has a valuable perspective. The silver-haired, glasses-wearing chancellor of the University of Mississippi is the man ultimately in charge of the $32 million annual enterprise that is the Rebels' football team. But instead of rising to that position through the usual channels, Jones is also a medical doctor, a man whose career led him through a private practice to missionary work in Korea, to leadership of the Ole Miss medical school and, ultimately, to his current role.

So he seemed like the perfect person to ask this question: Does the idea that football might be extinct in, say, 50 years ever cross his mind?

"Not a lot," he said, and then went about making an analogy. Automobiles have always been dangerous to operate, but society has made laws like speed limits, engineers have developed safer roads, car companies have built safer cars and equipped them with seat belts and air bags, too. (Indeed, traffic fatalities as a percentage of miles driven have decreased fivefold in the past 50 years.) It's a risk, minimized over time, for something people choose to do.

"I think football is one of those things where some people will choose not to participate, and that will be fine," he said. "Some parents will choose that for their children, and that will be fine. But I don't anticipate a day where we stop."

Jones is almost assuredly right. Of course football will still be around in 50 years. It's hard to imagine a sport with so much momentum, or a business with so much current success, shriveling up and massive stadiums going to weeds. Even sports like boxing and horse racing, in decline for various reasons, still exist, though marginalized to a degree.

But just what football will look like in 50 years, well, is a question worth exploring.

We know more about the effects of concussions than we ever have. We've seen it linked to suicides of former players. We've seen up close the aging former football stars. No generation has been exposed to the scientific evidence of the potential for long-term brain damage in collision sports like football than this one.

If ever football were at a tipping point, it is now.

"It's a good question," said Brandon Baughman, a neuropsychologist at Semmes-Murphey Neurologic and Spine Institute in East Memphis. Baughman and a team of other doctors at Semmes-Murphey are launching a dedicated group to sports concussions; he sees two or three patients, mostly high schoolers, a week. "It's an important question. It's an extremely difficult question to answer."

Though there is increased attention to sports head injuries, "the science is still lagging behind all the media attention it is getting," Baughman said. He pointed to developments on a number of fronts, though, including head impact sensors in football helmets, and mobile electroencephalograms — those are EEGs — that can detect brain activity in real time. "That's where I think there's going to be exponential growth down the road," he said. Baughman is especially encouraged by the recent announcement of a partnership between the NFL, General Electric and Under Armour that will award up to $10 million for innovations that can help prevent brain trauma.

If science is ever able to identify people who have a higher likelihood of long-term brain damage after sports concussions, and then attempt to prevent those people from playing, that would be a meaningful breakthrough, Baughman said. "On the other hand, if we're still searching and we're getting more and more (evidence) how dangerous certain types of contact sports are, I think we might see some legislation down the road limiting who can play, or what age can play," he said. Still, Baughman points out that a football injury is just about as common as falling off a bike, and those haven't been outlawed.

Jones led a Southeastern Conference effort within the past year to study concussions; it ultimately asked the NCAA to take the lead. The group shared each school's concussion management policy with the rest of the league, with the hopes that best practices will lead to better care.

Jones is hopeful that better helmets and rule changes, among other changes, can help make the sport safer. That's where many see the issue going — not vacant stadiums, but a different product, perhaps vastly different, than we'll see this weekend. Perhaps high-speed, high-impact plays like the kickoff will be eliminated. Maybe lineman won't be allowed to crush into each other. (And will there even be tackling?) Already, a controversial targeting rule has been implemented in college to prevent brazen head-to-head shots.

Nick Saban, the four-time national championship-winning Alabama coach, said he's open to significant rule changes. "If that's for the betterment of player safety, I think that's probably a good thing." (Saban has seen the issue progress from his playing days at Kent State in the 1970s. "When you had a concussion (then), as soon as you knew your name and where you were from, you know, they kind of put you back in the game," he said. "That wasn't anybody's fault, that's just the way it was.")

Saban turns 62 on Halloween and will likely be gone from the game by the time any drastic rule changes take place. Same with this generation's current players. All of which makes this debate over football's future purely a speculative exercise. Will what we're learning today affect whether young children shy away from the sport? It's something that just can't be determined now. (For what it's worth, a Shelby Youth Sports official said that about 1,000 children are participating in its leagues this year, which is down from years prior, but that's thought to be because of increased competition from other leagues and middle schools.)

Jones has a grandson. If he wants to play football, Jones said he'll be sure that his parents are well aware of the dangers and the necessary precautions — but he's not willing to throw up a roadblock, even with all he knows.

"If they make the decision for him to play football in elementary school or junior high school," Jones said, "I won't put my foot in the way."