Politics

Surname Racial Bias? Winners and Losers in 2012 Election

The first color a voter sees in studying the ballot might be the red or blue of the Republican or Democratic parties. But gender–and race–can be a significant factor in the power of choice and the ultimate composition of Congress.

Last month, 78 U.S. House contests pitted a white candidate against a person of color; 47 white lawmakers won, or 60 percent. (In 10 additional races, both candidates were minorities.)

“People tend to look at partisanship first,” explained Matt Baretto, a University of Washington political-science professor, “but there is additional evidence that … people do bring their racial bias to the voting process.”

Baretto researched (pdf) voting bias in Washington state, where an appointed Latino judge ran to retain his Supreme Court seat. His opponent campaigned lightly, yet won in 30 of the 38 counties where racial tensions were high. (The Seattle Times covered the outcome, and previously Baretto found evidence of “racially polarized voting” in more than 40 Los Angeles County elections since the mid-1990s; similarly, 2010 research conducted in Texas showed a propensity for Hispanic voters to back “Juan Martinez” over “John Morgan.”)

In the coming year, more and more ethnic-sounding surnames will appear on ballots, which is only one factor that partly defines candidates beyond party and gender. Below are visual representations of winners and losers in November races involving minority candidates, with red signifying Republicans, blue Democrats, and green independents.

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See our full coverage of all minority candidates, with photos and winning margins, from the November election. Also learn more about our incoming lawmakers by reading their profiles.

This first visual representation is of the 10 minority winners of open seats, further evidence that the GOP fielded few successful minority candidates.

Here is a mashup of the names of minority winners.

A collection of surnames of the losers in contests when one candidate was white and his or her opponent was a person of color.

Districts and gerrymandering have much to do with the success of a candidate, but some districts had hotly contested races of minority candidates;

Conversely, in another race where one candidate was a minority, Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy defeated incumbent Allen West, R-Fla., by the narrowest margin--a mere 1,907 votes--in ousting the black House member in District 18, which encompasses parts of Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

Here you can see the surnames of the winners and their parties.

And finally, take a look at an alphabetized list of winners by party; the names in italics are the minority candidates.