The Future is Bright for US Wine in 2017: Statistics from 2016 Paint Rosy Picture

Many of the statistics for 2016 US wine sales are in and the results are rosy. Optimism is high that 2017 will continue to see the small but steady growth pattern of previous years, at around 1 to 3% volume and 2 to 4% in value. According to Wines & Vines (2017), total US wine sales approached $60 billion in 2016, with an estimated $39.8 billion in sales from domestic wine and the remainder from imports.

US Wine Consumption Positive in 2016

Hot trends continue in brisk sales of red blends, sparkling, and rose, with a surprising surge in sauvignon blanc sales in 2016 (Nielsen, 2017). Sangria continues to be a sought after wine choice at an estimated 9.3% volume increase (BW166, 2017). The most positive news, however, comes in the form of premiumization, with many Americans “buying up” and spending more money per bottle. The average bottle price is now $10, making the US wine market the largest in both volume and value (Nielsen, 2017).

Imports Vs. Domestic Markets by Volume

Domestic Wine Sales = 67.1%

Imported Packaged = 25.4%

Imported Bulk = 7.5%

(Source: BW166, 2017)

Wine Sales Channels

Off-Premise – roughly 78.75% of US market with an average bottle price of $10. According to Nielsen (2017) volume grew at double digits in the following categories: $11-$14.99, $15-$19.99, $20-$24.99, $25+, but only at 3.2% for $8 -$11.99 and negative growth below $8 per bottle. Despite this, 58% of wine sold in the US is still under $8 per bottle, not including boxed wine.

On-Premise = estimated at 20% of the US market with an average bottle price of $40, but is still relatively flat with only .2% value growth and -1% volume. It is presumed the higher cost of wine at restaurants/bars compared to beer and cocktails, as well as other factors are creating this lack of growth. (BW166, 2017; Nielsen, 2017).

Direct to Consumer (DTC) = though still only 1.25% volume of the total US market, DTC is booming with 5 million cases shipped, an increase of 17.1% over 2015. Even more positive are the revenues at $2.33 billion, an increase of 18.5% over 2015 (Kirschenmann, 2017; ShipCompliant, 2017).

Amazing Fact: In the US, there are now 550,000 locations that sell wine, an increase of 120,000 outlets over the past ten years. Some of the innovative new locations to sell wine include bookshops, movie theaters and car washes. (Nielsen, 2017).

Growth of US Wineries and Exports

Number of US Wineries in 2017 = 9,091 (Fisher, 2017), up 4% from 8702 wineries in 2016.

Americans continue to prefer wine and spirits over beer, even with popularity of craft beer (Nielson, 2017).

Hot Varietals and Trends Now and for 2017

The Five Most Popular Wine Varietals/Styles are 1) chardonnay, 2) cabernet sauvignon, 3) red blends, 4) pinot grigio, and 5) pinot noir (WBM, 2017). This is expected to continue in 2017, though chardonnay is not growing as fast as the other categories.

Sparkling Wines continue to sizzle with double digit growth. Prosecco leads at 17% of category with $12 – $20 as a sweet spot (Nielsen, 2017). There is room for additional sparkling in the market, as consumers are expected to crave more bubbles in 2017.

Rosé is still all the rage, with Provence rosés in the lead with a 64% dollar share. However, all price points over $5 per bottle are doing well (Nielsen, 2017), and expected to continue in 2017.

Sangria continues to surge with a 9.3% volume increase in 2016, though most Americans prefer to drink it in warmer months, so summer of 2017 should be positive for Sangria (BW166, 2017).

Sauvignon Blanc, especially from NZ, captured strong increases in both volume and dollar value, with expectations for increased sales in 2017 (Nielsen, 2017).

Innovation in wine containers, packaging and product will continue in 2017. For example, the introduction of wine in aluminum cans in 2015 was appealing to some consumer segments (Thach & Chang, 2016).

Premiumization – with a higher consumer confidence rating in 2017, it is expected that consumers will continue to trade up to more expensive wines.

Acquisitions and start-ups within the wine industry are expected to continue in 2017, even with higher interest rates (McMillan, 2017).

Wine Market Council (2016). Overview of US Wine Industry. Presentation by John Gillespie at 11th Annual Wine Market Council Research Conference on U.S. Wine Consumer Trends. Jan. 25, 2016. New York, NY.