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Predicting The Seats: Scotland

Scotland is a huge talking point and may prove to be Labour’s downfall if polls are to be correct. For a long time, Scotland has voted Labour, adding the cherry on Tony Blair’s huge cake for eight years of his premiership, as well as being key to his weaker majority in 2005. They remained mostly in Labour’s hand in the last election with 41 seats, with the Liberal Democrats holding 11 seats. The SNP at the time only had 6 seats, with Conservative only one. Oh boy are people talking a different tune five years later. Following a landslide election victory in 2011, The SNP have only grown and grown, now unofficially the third largest party in the UK. Last year’s Independence Referendum has revived Scottish politics for a new generation, and given the Scottish people a wakeup call about the future of their country. This election is going to be important: Important for the SNP; Important for Labour; but most of all: Important for Scotland.

A Scottish seat down south which will be another competitive one. Polls say that the Conservatives will actually win this seat, with the SNP a close second. I’ll take that as proof enough, even if it’s a bit shaky. And with a MSP going to Westminster, it triggers a Scottish Parliament by election in the process.

Opinion polls say that this will be another seat that falls away from Labour. One poll has the SNP 18% over Labour. This surge may be massive in Scotland come May the 7th.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stuart McDonald

Dumfries & Galloway: 2010 – Labour Hold – Russell Brown M.P.

This will be a tough contest between three parties. Labour held this seat in the election, but expect the Conservatives to do well here. But not enough to stop the SNP surge as an opinion poll puts the SNP 4% ahead of the Tories.

The only Tory seat in Scotland, which is now ready to turn yellow if opinion polls are correct. The SNP may take this seat away from The Conservatives.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Emma Harper

East Dunbartonshire: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Jo Swinson M.P.

East Dunbartonshire was a firm NO in the referendum, but polls put the SNP very far ahead. Looks like Swinson & The Lib Dems will suffer huge in Scotland.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – John Nicolson

West Dunbartonshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gemma Doyle

West Dunbartonshire was another YES area during the referendum. An opinion poll put the SNP on 47% in this seat, and given the surge, I can’t see this being wrong.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Martin Docherty

Dundee East: 2010 – SNP Hold – Stewart Hosie M.P.

Steward Hosie

The Deputy Leader has held the seat since 2005 and will likely increase his lead, and prove to be a vital voice in Westminster and a guidance to new M.Ps in the commons.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Stewart Hosie M.P. (SNP Deputy Leader)

Dundee West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim McGovern M.P.

Given that Dundee voted YES in the referendum last year, I have no doubt Dundee West will be one of the SNP’s biggest gains.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Chris Law

Dunfermline & West Fife: 2010 – Labour Gain – Thomas Docherty

This will be one of the very few Labour seats that stays red in this election. The SNP surge will hit here, but not enough to turn the tide perhaps. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Thomas Docherty M.P.

Much like other grey seats in Scotland, We can only judge the result by wide polls only. However, this is my constituency and I have an inkling that the SNP will take this seat with ease.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Lisa Cameron

East Lothian: 2010 – Labour Hold – Fiona O Donnell

Opinion polls put The SNP ahead in this seat thanks to the huge surge since the referendum. Expect Labour’s Fiona O Donnell to lose this seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – George Kerevan

Edinburgh East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sheila Gilmore

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Tommy Sheppard

Edinburgh North & Leith: 2010 – Labour Hold – Mark Lazarowicz M.P.

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Deidre Brock

Edinburgh South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Murray

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Neil Hay

Edinburgh South West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alastair Darling M.P.

Alistair Darling during the Scottish independence referendum

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow. Darling steps down after a long controversial political career, including leading the campaign opposing Independence last September. Perhaps that took far too much out of him, and is now fleeing the wind.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Joanna Cherry

Edinburgh West: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mike Crockart M.P.

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Michelle Thomson

Falkirk: 2010 – Labour Hold – Eric Joyce M.P.

Eric Joyce has had a tough couple of years, resulting in losing his seat as a Labour M.P. and becoming a “independent” in the process. He will not be standing in this election, and with the SNP surge moving across Scotland, its likely this will fall yellow too.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – John McNally

North East Fife: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Menzies Campbell M.P.

Campbell steps down at this election, hoping to allow another Lib Dem candidate into Westminster. However, an opinion poll puts the SNP some leagues ahead in this seat, which could likely see an SNP win here.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stephen Gethins

Glasgow Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Anas Sarwar

Glasgow was a major YES city in the referendum, and has been key to the SNP surge. I can definitely see a huge swing towards the SNP in this seat, as well as a huge drop in Labour support.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Alison Thewliss

Glasgow East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Margaret Curran

Very much another heavy YES area during the referendum, this could be another seat that falls to the SNP, giving Margaret Curran another humiliating defeat after 2008.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Natalie McGarry

Glasgow North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ann McKechin M.P.

The North might be slightly tougher to win despite the huge referendum momentum. But opinion polls say this is heading towards the SNP, so its likely going to be another gain in Glasgow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Patrick Grady

Glasgow North East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Willie Bain M.P.

Widely believed to be the most left wing seat in the country, You’d think this would be easy pickings for the SNP. Yet an opinion poll has Labour here a large lead over the SNP, and will likely be one of the seats Labour can hold in this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Willie Bain M.P.

Glasgow North West: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Robertson M.P.

Given the momentum in Glasgow during the referendum, this will be a seat likely heading towards the SNP.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Carol Monaghan

Glasgow South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Harris M.P.

Glasgow was crucial for the YES movement, particularly in this seat. Judging by opinion polls, I reckon this seat will move to the SNP.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stewart McDonald

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon

Glasgow South West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Davidson M.P.

Davidson is a controversial M.P. whose comments over the years have angered and offended nationalists. The surge in SNP support post referendum maybe enough to finally oust Davidson out of his seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Chris Stephens

Glenrothes: 2010 – Labour Hold – Lindsay Roy M.P.

Another misty seat to call. The SNP surge may have an impact on this seat hugely. Opinion polls put this as a close seat, with the SNP just edging ahead. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Peter Grant

Gordon: 2010 – Lib Dem Hold – Malcolm Bruce M.P.

Malcolm Bruce steps down at this election, and is hopeful his successor Christine Jardine will replace him. But alas, Opinion Polls point to one Alex Salmond to take the seat and add it to the SNP list.

Since the 2011 by election, Inverclyde has become a crucial seat in the battle between Labour & The SNP. Only 0.2 percent separated both Yes & No in the referendum, and with the momentum post referendum going to the SNP, its likely this will turn yellow on May the 7th.

The SNP Surge will be huge, and one of the big casualties will be Lib Dem seats. Already expecting to do badly across the whole of the UK, Scotland will feel the sting that much worse. Recurring opinion polls do favourably towards the SNP, and Alexander may find himself out of a job.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Drew Hendry

Kilmarnock & Loudoun: 2010 – Labour Hold – Cathy Jamieson

The SNP surge will hit here strongly and oust Labour from this seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Alan Brown

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gordon Brown M.P.

An opinion poll has made this seat an eye opener of how big this SNP surge is. Five years ago, this was the seat of the Prime Minister. Now, its just another seat in the major wave of SNP support.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Roger Mullin

Lanark & Hamilton East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jimmy Hood M.P.

An area in which SNP has grown hugely. Labour will not survive this seat it is very likely.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Angela Crawley

Linlithgow & East Falkirk: 2010 – Labour Hold – Michael Connarty M.P.

The SNP will hit this seat hard and will likely take it from Labour.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Martyn Day

Livingston: 2010 – Labour Hold – Graeme Morrice

Opinion polls have this seat heading towards the SNP with a large share. This could likely swing yellow come May the 7th. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Hannah Bardell

Midlothian: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Hamilton M.P.

Always been a Labour seat for many years, but now the SNP could take this seat away from Labour and build on a strong block in Westminster. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Owen Thompson

Moray: 2010 – SNP Hold – Angus Robertson M.P.

One of the SNP’s most senior figures, and has been one of the most important in regards to Westminster. Again, he serves in a very safe SNP seat, and is destined to be even more safe after this election.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Angus Robertson M.P.

Motherwell & Wishaw: 2010 – Labour Hold – Frank Roy M.P.

This has long been a Labour stronghold throughout its entire existence. However, an opinion poll puts the SNP at 50%, making this one of Labour’s biggest losses on May the 7th. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Marion Fellows

Na h-Eileanan an lar: 2010 – SNP Hold – Angus MacNeil M.P.

A small seat in Scotland with a small electorate. None the less, most of them win turn to SNP and MacNeil will have a safe majority.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Angus MacNeil M.P.

Angus MacNeil

Perth & North Perthshire: 2010 – SNP Hold – Pete Wishart M.P.

Another safe seat for the SNP which is bound to become even safer. Wishart is another senior SNP MP who maybe helpful for newcomers, and prove to be a key voice in the next parliament.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Pete Wishart M.P.

Ochil & South Perthshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gordon Banks M.P.

In the last election, the SNP share was quite close to the Labour share, making this a long target for the SNP in many elections. Following the referendum, and a high surge towards the SNP, this is a seat that will likely be won by the SNP.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh

Orkney & Shetland: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Alastair Carmichael

Amazingly, despite the drop of support for the Lib Dems, this is likely to be one of the seats that will hold a Lib Dem M.P. Good news for Carmichael, as he maybe ready to make a leadership challenge if Clegg is badly beaten.

This is a tough one to call. Opinion polls put this seat neck and neck with Labour & The SNP. This is where these series of articles get tough and it comes down to natural luck. The SNP surge is huge, but is it that huge? And if Labour are going to save any seats, is this one of them? I’m thinking Labour might just sneak this, but only just.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jim Sheridan M.P,

Paisley & Renfrewshire South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Douglas Alexander

This is a seat gaining a lot of coverage, more or less due to the opinion polls that puts young SNP member Mhairi Black ahead of established cabinet member Douglas Alexander. If polls are correct, we could see one of the biggest upsets of the election, and one of the best representatives of young people in Westminster.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Mhairi Black

East Renfrewshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim Murphy M.P.

Will the leader of the Scottish Labour Party Jim Murphy lose his seat?

This is another seat getting a lot of coverage. Jim Murphy is Scottish Labour Leader at the present moment, and will contest in the Holyrood Election to become First Minister. However, opinion polls have put the SNP ahead by a sizeable margin. This maybe an uncomfortable night for Jim Murphy if polls are correct.

The former Lib Dem leader has been in the commons for a long time, fighting many elections and playing a crucial importance to the party’s history. However the SNP surge will hurt opposing parties badly. In this seat, Kennedy may finally lose his last election.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Ian Blackford

Rutherglen & Hamilton West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Greatrex

A difficult seat to call as one does not know how huge the SNP surge will be. Judging this by the limited polling available, It seems this maybe a seat Labour can hold. But its difficult to say.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tom Greatrex M.P.

Stirling: 2010 – Labour Hold – Anne McGuire M.P.

McGuire steps down to hopefully let candidate Johanna Boyd into Parliament. But given this huge surge in SNP support, this is likely to swing to the SNP. Opinion polls say that SNP have momentum in this seat, and that is likely true.

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2 thoughts on “Predicting The Seats: Scotland”

MSPs have no obligation to resign their seat on becoming a MP. They might if its in the party interests – i.e. they are sure that their party can win the MSP constituency. Often MSPs stay on till the next Scottish General Election – and some – like Alex Salmond – donate one salary to charity while in the dual role.