Pakistan Must Act: Swiftly and Smartly!

Cardinal question for
the moment is: Will NarendraModi’spremediated triggering of crisis in Indian
Occupied Kashmir (IoK) snowball enough to incite and invoke US led intervention
by the UN to throw up a win-win solution for one of the oldest disputes on the
UN agenda? Presumably, Modi initiated the process on side-lines of recent G-20
summit, when he asked the US President Donald Trump to mediate for resolving
Kashmir dispute.

He may have also
proposed a roadmap to Trump who’s ever excited twitter is mum, on the issue,
since the annexation of IoK. Another question is: Was Trump aware that Modi was
about to act this way prior to his summit with Prime Minister Imran Khan, (circumstantial
evidence suggests that he did), if so, whom was he fooling? Or Did Modihood wink
Trump and used him as a joker in his broader plan? If so, Trump will hit back
soon and ponce on Modi, like an injured Loin. Let’s wait and see: ‘Who used
Whom?’

India has had a long
trail of going back on its commitments to the Kashmiri people that they would
be allowed to democratically decide whether they would join Pakistan or
India. Over the years, Indian occupation
forces have killed tens of thousands of Kashmiri people, used pellet guns to
blind them and subjected them to cluster bombs.
Yet, India has not been able to legitimize its occupation of Kashmir;
and it will never be able to do so.

Its earlier grand move
to legitimize occupation was rejected by the world community when in 1957 the
UN Security Council (UNSC), through a resolution declared that the Srinagar
legislative assembly did not have the power to legitimize Indian claim over
Kashmir (Resolution 122 of January 24, 1957). This resolution pointed out that
any elections in occupied Kashmir could not substitute plebiscite that had been
promised to the Kashmiri people.

Indian claim that
princely ruler of Kashmir had acceded his state to India had earlier been
rejected by the UN Security Council. But even that dubious accession deed was
based on full internal autonomy of the state, except defence, foreign affairs
and communications. This arrangement was
formalised through Article 370 and 35A of Indian constitution which Modi
abrogated post haste, on August 05, 2019. Accession deed is now void; we are
back to August 14, 1947 status.

If the Kashmir
legislative assembly did not have power to decide fate of Kashmir, how the
Indian Parliament can claim such power. India does not tire by referring to
Shimla Agreement but on August 05, it chose to trample its provisions that
neither India nor Pakistan will change status quo in Kashmir till final
settlement of the dispute.

United Nations
Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called on India “to refrain from taking
steps that could affect the status of Jammu and Kashmir”. On August 07, Prime
Minister Imran Khan called upon the international community to not to watch on
as bystanders to the genocide in IoK at the hands of Indian government. “Will
we watch another appeasement of fascism, this time in the garb of BJP
government?” he tweeted. He asked the world to have the moral courage to stop
the genocide from taking place. The
United States said on August 08 that it supports direct dialogue between
Pakistan and India on the Kashmir issue and called for calm and restraint.

PM Imran has said war
was not an option but Pakistan needed to tell the world about what was
happening in occupied Kashmir. “We were
heard for the first time after Pulwama and now the world has started to
understand the gravity of this issue,” he noted. “Modi has actually committed a
blunder and it will give fresh impetus to the indigenous freedom struggle,
leading to the liberation of Kashmir”, he added.

China is gravely
concerned about situation in occupied Kashmir, senior diplomat Wang Yi said on
August 09, following a meeting with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. Wang
added that China would continue to support Pakistan to safeguard its legitimate
rights and interests at the UNSC. China has urged India and Pakistan to avoid
unilateral actions, and seek a new path of peaceful coexistence.

Amnesty International
India has criticised the revocation of the special status of the IOK. Amnesty
International India chief Aakar Patel said the additional deployment of
“thousands of security forces”, a blanket blockade of telephone and internet
services and restrictions on peaceful assembly already “pushed the people of IOK
to the edge.” “To make matters worse, key political stakeholders have been
placed under house arrest,” he added.

So far, Pakistan’s
reaction has been natural, timely and measured, instead of severing diplomatic
ties, it only downgraded it just by one step, stopping the trade does not have
any worthwhile impact on either economy. Decision of closing the airspace would
have pained India, but Pakistan has still not given effect to this option.
Pakistan has announced that it would review bilateral arrangements with India.
Pakistan and India have a number of bilateral arrangements. At this stage,
there is no clarity which bilateral agreements Pakistan intends to review with
India.

Pakistan’s government
is under tremendous domestic pressure for tangible actions. It will have to act
sooner or later; however, earlier the better.
Pakistan has many viable options. No P-5 country is likely to veto a
UNSC resolution asking India for reversing its recent steps, Pakistan is also
likely to accrue a favourable ruling by ICJ, even if India boycotts the court
proceedings. Verdict by the Indian Supreme Court, however remains unpredictable
due track record of sectarian polarization amongst its judges on some earlier
decisions impacting Muslims as a community.