.EU is not a ccTLD. It's not on the ISO list. It won't be on the ISO list. Calling it a ccTLD isn't going to change that fact.

ICANN will most likely vote to create it, and IANA (otherwise known as the same people at ICANN who change their hat) will put out a report stating that, while it's not on the ISO list, it's an exception, and it should be created.

But what this does is solidify the position that ICANN's TLD creation policy is biased, and that ICANN does what it wants, irrespective of the merits. The 40 applicants who were not chosen in the first round will have a solid basis for a breach of contract suit based on ICANN's arbitrary creation of .EU. Those companies in the US will sue first, as there is some question as to the standing of those outside of the US.

The only question is whether the US Government will step in to save ICANN or dismantle ICANN before the suit gets to court.

That, and the fact that ICANN won't have the money for the suit, especially if all 40 applicants band together to fund the suit.

If ICANN doesn't add .EU, then the EU will come down on them like a ton of bricks.