Scandal-shocked House Democrats fear for 2014

Democrats aiming to retake the House next year against all odds tried to reassure themselves after President Barack Obama’s week from hell: The election is still 18 months away, plenty of time for Republicans to turn today’s gift into tomorrow’s albatross.

Yet the anxiety within party ranks heading into a midterm already heavily stacked in the GOP’s favor is all too palpable.

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“I think it really is a problem. I’m taken aback by it all,” said Democratic House candidate Jim Graves of Minnesota, adding that he intends to air his grievances with the White House during his campaign against GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann.

A senior Democratic strategist told POLITICO that the potential drag on Democrats running in the midterm should not be underestimated.

“The entire party is interested that the White House gets this dealt with,” a senior party strategist told POLITICO. “It makes it very, very tough.”

To have a prayer of flipping the House, Democrats need to turn an electoral triple play: motivate young and minority voters who are less likely to vote without Obama atop the ticket, lock up independents and give a slice of Republicans reason to pull the Democratic lever in dozens of districts that tilt red.

The events of the past week hurt on all those fronts. If anything, Democratic operatives privately conceded, the IRS scandal will fire up the GOP base and bolster the conservative case against Democrats as the party of invasive government.

“I really do believe that one of the most important factors that caused Republicans to lose the House in 2006 was Hurricane Katrina. It played into what voters felt about Republicans — that they don’t care and that they don’t care about government,” the senior party strategist said.

The IRS scandal “plays into what people think about Democrats, that we like big government. … It makes it harder to play in Republican districts.”

The sting may be felt most among middle-of-the-road voters — the same bloc that bolted from Democrats during the previous midterm election and helped sweep House Republicans into power.

“The biggest impact is with independents,” said David Beattie, a Democratic pollster, who added that the cascade of controversies “sets us back.”

Several Democrats interviewed for this story declined to speak for attribution because they didn’t want to be seen as accusing the White House of diminishing their political prospects. And a number of Democrats running in swing districts would not speak at all.

Democrats do have a plan to fight back. As congressional investigations kick into high gear in the coming weeks, they plan to brand Republicans as obsessed with going after Obama and uninterested in what really matters to everyday Americans — resuscitating the battered economy.

On Friday, the White House was taking steps to pivot to a jobs-focused message, with the president traveling to Baltimore to discuss policies aimed at helping the middle class. And White House chief of staff Denis McDonough has been adamant that the administration not get bogged down by congressional scrutiny of the scandals and instead focus on priorities such as immigration reform, The New York Times reported.

“What voters see in Washington is Republicans overreaching and preferring investigations and partisanship instead of solutions that strengthen the middle class,” said Jesse Ferguson, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee deputy executive director. “Democrats have been swift and tough in dealing with these situations but remain focused on the priorities important to families. Maybe that’s why the public approval rating of this Republican Congress is in a race to the bottom with the IRS.”