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2 EXITS AND ENTRANCES Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking has topped the poll for the third year in a row in this year s Risk and Energy Risk Commodity Rankings, which are marked by several dramatic exits and one impressive comeback. By Mark Pengelly In 2014, commodity derivatives dealers say they saw something of a recovery in their business. A combination of volatility in natural gas markets and tumbling crude oil prices have helped bolster client hedging activity, after several lean years in which banks were hit hard by a toxic mix of low revenues, higher capital requirements and tougher regulation. Those conditions have set the stage for several dramatic exits and one impressive comeback in this year s Risk and Energy Risk Commodity Rankings. In the best overall dealer category, Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking (SG CIB) comes in first place for the third year in a row, winning 10.9% of the vote (see figure 1). The French bank also achieves first place among energy dealers again, for the third year in a row where it clinches a marginally lower 10.8% of the vote. SG CIB s success is underpinned by solid performances in markets including European oil and products, and European natural gas. It also won individual product categories such as soft commodities, commodity index products, structured hedging and risk management advisory. The bank enjoys a particularly strong showing in base metals, coming first among base metals dealers and brokers with 12.6% of the vote. Here, SG CIB manages a clean sweep of all six individual product categories: copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, zinc and tin. Nevertheless, there are signs there may be more competition in store Amy Johansson / Shutterstock.com 1 Reprinted from February 2015

3 F1. Top 10 dealers: share of the vote (1) = position held in 2014 rankings 8 % Societe Generale (1) Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs (2) BNP Paribas (7) JP Morgan (8) Citi (9) GDF Suez Trading (6) Barclays (4) UBS (10) Morgan Stanley for the French bank next year. In several areas, SG CIB enjoys a slightly narrower margin of victory compared with 2014: the bank s lead in the best overall dealer category drops from 1.9 to 1.3 percentage points, for instance. And in the pivotal oil and products category, the bank performs worse than last year, dropping from second to third place. This year, the greatest challenge to SG CIB comes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), which has staged a remarkable comeback. Like other banks, BAML has been reshaping its commodities business over recent years in the face of tough market conditions. In January 2014, the US bank revealed it would withdraw from European power and gas sales and trading, although it would remain active in markets such as oil, coal and US power and gas. It has gone on to achieve robust results in these areas in this year s rankings. In the best overall dealer and energy dealers categories, BAML comes second with 9.6% of the vote a vast improvement for a dealer that did not appear in either table during BAML s resurgence in oil is especially noteworthy. Last year, BAML ranked joint seventh with JP Morgan for oil and products, winning just 6.4% of the vote. This year, it leads the pack with 11.1% of the vote. The bank romps home in all three North American oil and products categories, including West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, other North American crudes and North American refined products. Similarly, BAML triumphs in the individual product categories of US power for which it came fifth last year and eastern natural gas, where it was not ranked at all in BAML s rise comes largely at the expense of Goldman Sachs, which drops from second to third place in the best overall dealer category, with 8.6% of the vote. Among energy dealers, the US bank achieves fourth place, but on a healthier 9.2% of the vote. Rankings in full Overall winners 4 5 North American oil and products 6 European oil and products 6 North American natural gas 7 European natural gas 7 8 North American power 8 European power 9 10 Coal 10 Emissions 10 Biofuels 10 Weather 11 Precious metals 11 Base metals Iron ore 12 Freight 12 Soft commodities 12 Commodity indexes 13 Structuring/advisory 13 Research 14 Traditionally, Goldman has done well in markets such as North American oil and products, and natural gas a trend that continues in this year s rankings. Goldman achieves first prize for the individual product categories of Henry Hub natural gas and western natural gas, while it also polls strongly in WTI crude oil, other North American crudes, North American refined products, European refined products and eastern natural gas. Notable absences Some of the major banks included in last year s rankings are notable for their absences from the top 10 dealers this year. While Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse ranked third and fifth in 2014, respectively, both banks have dropped out of the table after closing down most of their commodities businesses. Meanwhile, Barclays drops from fourth to eighth place, having announced a retreat from much of its activity in commodities in April last year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the beneficiaries of these moves are those dealers that remain committed to commodities. Banks such as BNP Paribas, Citi and JP Morgan all record an improvement in their overall performance this year. Chief among them is BNP Paribas, which achieves fourth place in the best overall dealer category, garnering 8.5% of the vote. Among energy dealers, the risk.net 2

4 F2. Top 10 brokers: share of the vote (1) = position held in 2014 rankings 12 % Icap (1) GFI Group (4) Tullett Prebon (3) Tradition (2) Marex Spectron (5) Newedge (6) PVM (9) BGC Partners (7) Jefferies Bache (8) Sunrise Brokers (10) French bank performs even better, coming third with 9.4% of the vote. While the same names feature at the top table, the best overall broker category undergoes a slight reordering this time around. Strong results in natural gas and precious metals help London-based Icap hang onto first place, winning 15.5% of the vote (see figure 2). Among energy brokers, the firm also retains pole position, with 13.1% of the vote. But New Yorkbased GFI Group has shot up to reach second place in the best overall broker and energy brokers categories. In doing so, it overtakes London-based Tullett Prebon, which comes third, and Switzerland-based Tradition, in fourth. A number of smaller brokers trail behind the big four, including London-based Marex Spectron and Paris-based Newedge. Tullett Prebon, the new owner of London-based PVM, should be pleased at the oil broker s performance, which sees it usurp Icap as top broker in oil and products. Tullett completed its acquisition of PVM on November 26 last year, slightly too late for the firms to be counted as one entity in this year s poll. If they had been, the combined company would have comfortably beaten Icap into second place. Beyond the banks and brokers, this year s rankings throw up plenty of interesting results in particular markets. For example, the trading arm of Switzerland-based utility Axpo storms to victory in power, picking up 11.7% of the vote. The firm ranks in the top five in every European power market and How the poll was conducted Risk and Energy Risk received 1,400 valid responses to this year s survey. Respondents were asked to vote for their top three dealers and brokers in order of preference for any categories in which they had been active over the course of the year. This year, some categories were amalgamated or cut, and others added, after consultation with market participants. The organisation of the rankings will be revisited again next year and any feedback is welcome. It is important to note this poll is not designed to reflect volumes traded in any particular market and is therefore not necessarily a direct reflection of market share voters could base their decisions on a variety of criteria, including pricing, liquidity provision, counterparty risk, speed of execution and reliability. In that sense, this poll should be considered a reflection of how market professionals view their peers in terms of overall quality of service. When aggregating the results, we strip out what comes first in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, the Nordic region and Spain. The individual product category of biofuels is won by Anglo- Dutch oil major Shell, while reinsurer Swiss Re reaps success in weather. And in iron ore, Australian bank Macquarie comes from nowhere in 2014 to top the category. we consider to be invalid votes. These include people voting for their own firm, multiple votes from the same person or IP address, votes from people using personal accounts, votes by people who choose the same firm indiscriminately throughout the poll, votes by people who clearly do not trade the product, and block votes from groups of people on the same desk at the same institution voting for the same firm. The votes were weighted, with three points for a first place, two points for second and one for third. Only categories with a sufficient number of votes were included in the final poll. The top firms are listed by overall percentage of votes. To decide the overall winner, we use the overall percentage of votes for each firm. The survey also includes a series of overall rankings, which are calculated by aggregating the total number of votes across individual categories. These results are naturally weighted, as there are more votes in the larger, more liquid, categories than in the smaller ones. 3 Reprinted from February 2015

REPRINTED FROM RISK MANAGEMENT l DERIVATIVES l REGULATION Sunrise Brokers voted overall number one equity products broker of the year by Risk for the sixth consecutive year www.sunrisebrokers.com SEPTEMBER

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