Mid level and upper low stacked very near Mammoth this morning…..snow showers should increase as low drifts south today…..PC-Milder WX Sunday….

Friday April 8, 2011

Posted at 9:36 am by Howard

Nice little storm left between a foot and a foot and a half over the upper elevations Thursday. The wrap-a-round should begin by the afternoon with another couple of inches possible. Temps are about as cold as they every get this time of the year with both near record high-low max-mins. Total water EQ near the village was .76

Ski patrol raised their totals for the year to 597.5 inches of snow on their plot. The Dweebs are not sure if that included all the snowfall from yesterday. We are excitingly close to the 600 inch benchmark!

As the Dweebs have indicated in the past……La Nina Winters tend to not linger into the late Spring like El Nino winters. Last year it snowed right on through the Spring and even into early Summer. That is unlikely this year. There will be an increasing possibility of above normal temps in May……Right on through the Summer of 2011!

As compared to last year, this Summer should be quite a bit warmer with more thunderstorms then last Summer. The good news is that like last Summer, the forest is in very good shape with lots of water to inhibit the rapid growth of forest fires.

As temperatures go from below normal to normal then above…..the mid to late Spring WX will promote rapid run off with spectacular waterfalls, dangerously high and fast flowing rivers throughout multi county areas on both sides of the crest.

Forecast and Outlook:

With the near record cold upper low exiting the region this weekend…..Unsettled WX to last through Saturday with milder weather expected Sunday. The longer range shows the next migratory short wave dampening as it translates through the west coast. There will be one more short wave that “may” bring some showers Tuesday night/Wednesday. Then……..the big change in the GFS extended over the past several days shows a change from earlier runs in the week. The old idea favored a new and progressive long wave trof effecting Northern and North Central Ca. Now there is an adjustment westward of the high latitude blocking high (in the mean) centered to just south of the Bering Sea. This is similar to the position of this block last December with one big-big difference! It is now April and not December. As a result, we will most likely ridge up the end of the week instead of getting into a wet-wet pattern. What the GFS has done is to come more around to the ECMWF earlier solution. There is no doubt about it! It is April and although La Nina is weakening, its effects are still effecting global WX patterns and we are likely witnessing the workings of an end of a long-long, wet-wet winter!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

————————————————-Reference Glossary of Weather TermsDisclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.