UFC 156 preview: Can Edgar survive another oh-no moment against Aldo?

UFC 156 preview: Can Edgar survive another oh-no moment against Aldo?

It’s hard not to think ex-lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (14-3-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) has another one of those oh-no moments coming when he fights Jose Aldo (21-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) at UFC 156, which takes place Saturday at Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. (Main card fights air live on pay-per-view following prelims on FX and Facebook.)

You know those moments: Edgar flits about the cage, pawing out his jab, and then, boom, he gets hit with a kitchen sink. All at once, he’s forced into survival mode, just one step from semi-permanent midnight.

So far, the pride of Toms River, N.J., has defined himself by his ability to bounce back from those moments and even thrive on them. Twice he was out on his feet against Gray Maynard; the first time, he charged back to force a draw, and the second, he knocked out Maynard in the fourth round. In his first fight against Benson Henderson, he took a vicious upkick and made it to the final bell for a decision many believe was closer than the scorecards indicated.

Edgar managed to avoid a sub-concussion in a rematch with Henderson and narrow the score, though “Smooth” still retained the belt. But there’s a viciousness with which Aldo attacks opponents that often harkens back to the best moments of heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko – a finishing ability that’s triggered all at once and with explosive, emotionless violence.

Then there’s the other version of the Brazilian champion, who slowly chops away at your legs until it hurts to stand. The one that makes you pay every time you drift into striking range, and waits patiently until you do.

Aldo is no slouch on the mat, either. Maynard, who trained with the champ in his home country, spoke of crazy anti-takedown acrobatics when he tried to drag their sparring sessions to the ground.

Edgar just doesn’t have much room to make mistakes, if any. The featherweight division was supposed to make him more competitive a fighter, as he was competing at lightweight against foes who were sometimes 20 pounds heavier inside the cage. And it very well could be that his impressive, combination-heavy boxing combined with his ability to close the distance will be the key other fighters have failed to find against the Brazilian. We just don’t know at this point because it’s his first dance in the weight class, so we have nothing to compare it to.

If there’s anything that could act in Edgar’s favor, it’s the extended layoff served by Aldo following a foot injury courtesy of a motorcycle accident. The misfortune served as the latest setback for the 26-year-old champ, who’s seen injuries postpone several scheduled fights.

A less-than-nimble Aldo could make it easy for Edgar to scoop him up and put him on the mat. Again, we just don’t know at this point. But what makes the matchup exciting, other than the possibility of a highly skilled slugfest at higher speed, is the prospect of seeing Aldo challenged on the mat. So far, that hasn’t happened.

A classic Edgar performance would see him win a decision with a hit-and-run striking attack paired with explosive takedowns. For Aldo, a shin to Edgar’s face, ground-and-pound onslaught, or leg kicks could all do the job. The difference in their value is based on history; Aldo has far more of a chance to finish the fight.

Oddsmakers give the champ about a 65 percent chance of retaining his title.

OTHER MAIN CARD BOUTS

• Rashad Evans (17-2-1 MMA, 12-2-1 UFC) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5 MMA, 3-2 UFC): It’s hard to characterize this light-heavyweight bout as anything more than a placeholder for Evans, who for once in the recent past is not the guy emerging from a long layoff. That distinction belongs to Nogueira, who, at 36 years old, hasn’t fought in 14 months as the result of a knee injury. Prior to that, he defeated the soon-to-retire Tito Ortiz, whom the 33-year-old Evans shellacked a year prior.

MMA math is notoriously unreliable, but what isn’t is Nogueira’s historical weakness against wrestlers. Couple that with Evans’ faster and more dynamic striking game, and it’s a long night for the Brazilian, whose best days were seen inside the PRIDE ring.

The fight could be Evans last at 205 pounds for the foreseeable future. A middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva hovers in the distance, and though Chris Weidman appears to be first in line to face the champ, Evans could be next if a test cut is successful. It’s Nogueira’s job to spoil those plans.

• Alistair Overeem (36-11 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Antonio Silva (17-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC): This is a one-sided heavyweight title eliminator for the UFC, which has confirmed that Overeem will challenge champ Cain Velasquez for the belt if successful on Saturday. Silva gets a check, a bro hug and a future in the UFC if he can unseat the heir to the contendership.

The two originally were scheduled to meet in the semifinals of the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix, but inside the octagon, they’re clearly moving at different paces. After vacating Strikeforce in completely opposite fashion, Overeem met former champ Brock Lesnar off the bat and immediately secured a title shot. Silva stepped up to meet former champ Cain Velasquez. But with Velasquez recently winning back his title from Junior Dos Santos, Silva has hit a roadblock. Quite simply, he’s twice been used as a warmup opponent.

And if you think about Silva’s weakness, which lies in striking defense, and Overeem’s strength, which is landing big, swinging hooks, you can see why many – including Overeem – look at this fight the same way.

But if you also think about Silva’s strength, which is pounding on opponents from top position, is it as certain an outcome? Overeem’s bulk helps him generate the power to knock out opponents, but it also makes him susceptible to tiring in long grappling matches. If, and only if, Silva sets up his takedowns properly, the match will be competitive. Otherwise, count on a striking highlight reel for Overeem.

• Jon Fitch (24-4-1 MMA, 14-2-1 UFC) vs. Demian Maia (17-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC): This is a welterweight fight that will move the winner within two or three fights of a title shot. Fitch, who rebounded from a shocking upset loss to Johny Hendricks with a decision win over Erick Silva, could see his stock rise with a win over Maia, who boasts two solid wins over standouts Rick Story and Dong Hyun Kim. Count on Maia working his striking against Fitch, whose grinding style is a tough matchup for his slick jiu-jitsu.

• Joseph Benavidez (16-3 MMA, 3-1 UFC) vs. Ian McCall (11-3-1 MMA, 0-1-1 UFC): Top contenders in the burgeoning flyweight class, Benavidez or McCall could find himself again facing champ Demetrious Johnson, who outpointed both of them on his rise to the title. As style matchups go, the two should pair better with each other than against the champ. Both are aggressive strikers with solid wrestling skills, which should make them even more eager to trade. Benavidez gets the slight edge in this bout.

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