In a positive turn of events on March 16, 2017, the Human Rights Council (HRC) draft resolution on Myanmar[1] now calls for the urgent deployment of an international Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) to investigate allegations of human rights violations committed by the military and security forces in the country, particularly in Rakhine State. Only two weeks ago, it seemed that Myanmar would evade such a probe. Previous versions of the European Union (EU)-led draft resolution stopped short of calling for an international investigation, which has been pushed for by both the High Commissioner for Human Rights and the Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar, as well as various local, regional and international human rights organizations, including Progressive Voice.

This marked strengthening of language came at the heels of the Special Rapporteur's presentation to the Council, during which she reiterated her call for a Commission of Inquiry (COI) to examine the situation in Rakhine State, and stressed that "prompt, thorough, independent, and impartial" investigations are needed across the country, including in Kachin and Shan States. While FFMs are less authoritative than COIs and not usually coupled with a systematic legal assessment, the EU-led move is a step in the right direction. A FFM, if ultimately approved by the HRC member states, will dispel any uncertainty regarding the circumstances on the ground, and set the necessary foundation for further substantive action. In the case of Burundi, the alarming findings of the FFM established in 2015 led to the establishment of a COI in 2016.

But any optimism surrounding this UN call must be cautious as the Myanmar Government has been consistent in its opposition to any international investigations, urging the international community to have faith in domestic investigative bodies. As a case in point, one such body, the Kofi Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine State, released its interim report late last week— a timely move considering that the EU-led draft resolution was tabled at the HRC just one day prior to its release. Among the Advisory Commissions' numerous recommendations—all of which received the endorsement of the government—is a call for an "impartial and independent" investigation into allegations of abuse in the Rakhine State. But while that, along with the rest of the report, is largely in line with what civil society groups and the UN have called for, the international community must be wary of falling into a trap of complacency. As Progressive Voice highlighted in a joint statement with local women's groups and FORUM-ASIA last week, the government has established numerous commissions since 2012, and all were bogged with questionable composition, methods, and conclusions. In addition, the Kofi Annan-led Commission itself does not have the mandate to investigate human rights violations.

Moreover, the significance of the timing of the report—at a time when UN member states are preparing to vote—cannot be lost. In 2011, amidst calls for a COI to investigate possible crimes against humanity in the country, the then military-backed, quasi-civilian Myanmar government established the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission. While the international call for COI ultimately fell through, partly due to increasing optimism about the reforms in Myanmar, the Commission has yet to live up to its mandate or gain public confidence as its existence has clearly not deterred continued abuse of the civilian population. Once again, the international community finds itself at the cusp of giving undue credence to the Myanmar Government's commitments.

Whether a fact-finding mission will be dispatched at all is still completely up in the air, with HRC member states due to vote on resolutions later this week. Last Friday, China and Russia blocked a short Security Council press statement that would have "noted with concern" the renewed fighting in the country and "stressed the importance" of allowing humanitarian access to conflict affected areas. China is currently a member of the HRC, and its Security Council veto alone indicates that the voting on the EU-led draft resolution will be a serious test of international resolve.

As deliberations in Geneva continue, the situation on the ground remains distressing. Since March 6, 2017, over 30,000 people from the Kokang area of Shan State have been displaced due to renewed conflict between the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Myanmar Army. Ongoing conflict in Kachin State has also made the situation increasingly precarious for tens of thousands of internally displaced people. Just last week, three women human rights defenders from Myanmar testified at a HRC side-event, joined by the Special Rapporteur, Ms. Yanghee Lee, and moderated by Khin Ohmar, Chair of the Advisory Board at Progressive Voice, presenting unmistakable pattern of human rights violations, including rape and sexual violence, committed by the Myanmar Army on local ethnic and religious minority populations in both conflict and non-conflict areas.

As demonstrated by its own record thus far, the Myanmar Government is incapable of conducting "impartial and independent" investigations. Going forward, it is imperative that member states at the HRC remember who the true beneficiaries of an international investigation are, and vote for the EU-led draft resolution to deploy a UN-led fact-finding mission into the country. If the international community genuinely wishes to help Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy-led Government bring the Myanmar Army under civilian control, and thus ensure that the people of Myanmar achieve a successful transition into democracy, supporting an international investigation is an absolute must.

[1] One year following the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, the former military junta changed the country's name from Burma to Myanmar overnight. Progressive Voice uses the term 'Myanmar' in acknowledgement that most people of the country use this term. However, the deception of inclusiveness and the historical process of coercion by the former State Peace and Development Council military regime into usage of 'Myanmar' rather than 'Burma' without the consent of the people is recognized and not forgotten.