SR Preview: Round Five, Part One

Wed, 22 Mar 2017 22:24

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: Trends have started to appear and we are only into Round Five.

These trends suggest the Australian teams are in a worse state than last year, the New Zealand franchises are even more dominant and the only possible threat to the Kiwis are likely to come from South Africa.

There are no South African teams playing on Friday, so we are left with a trans-Tasman encounter and an all-Aussie derby.

It will certainly provide the Aussie franchises with a couple of chances to prove us wrong and show they are not just also-rans.

Prediction: The Crusaders have won four of their last five games against the Force, including each of their last two; they've never won more than two in a row against the Western Australian team. The Crusaders are undefeated in their four previous home games against the Force, keeping them to seven points or fewer twice during that span. The Crusaders have won their last eight games against Australian opposition; never in Super Rugby history have they enjoyed a longer winning streak in such fixtures. The Force have lost their last six away to New Zealand sides, their longest run of defeats away to Kiwi opposition. The Force have scored multiple tries in their last two Super Rugby games, the last time they found the try line more than once in more consecutive games was a streak of three that ended in Round 13, 2015. The Force always give the Crusaders a run for their money and are likely to do so again. However, the Crusaders have too much class and in the last three matches showed they can win even when under immense pressure. The Crusaders should win by about 12 points.

The Melbourne Rebels will defend the Weary Dunlop Shield against the Waratahs, as they host their first Australian derby of the season.

The Melbourne Rebels will contest six Australian derbies in 2017.

However, this may well be the most crucial of the season.

Both teams spoke of their 'desperate desire' to turn their seasons around - the Rebels winless at the bottom of the standings after three defeats and the Waratahs just two positions higher with one win in four starts, that victory coming against the Western Force.

The Rebels are coming off a confidence-boosting performance against the league-leading Chiefs last week, but the Waratahs lead the head to head record between two sides with nine wins from 11 previous meetings.

Rebels coach Tony McGahan admitted that his team can't afford another defeat.

"It's vital that we win, the competition demands that, and to play our role in the Australian conference we need to win all our home games," the coach said.

Waratahs coach Daryl Gibson made several changes, saying he hopes it will get the Tahs playing the style of game they are eager to play.

"We need to get our combinations clicking," Gibson said.

"Up until now we have been far too inconsistent and the mistakes have been on us to fix.

"We are pleased to have Bernard [Foley] back [at flyhalf], his absence has certainly been felt in those first four rounds.

"The short $turn around I think has been good for us this week on the back of [last] Saturday's loss. The team came in Monday eager to do what needs to be done to get us out where we are right now.

"The Melbourne Rebels won't be an easy side to face at home and certainly they were unlucky to get the loss they did last week.

"They will be as eager as we are to get the win on Friday night," added Gibson.

Prediction: The Rebels earned a four-point win against the Waratahs when they last met, which was their second ever win against the NSW franchise, and will now be looking for back-to-back wins against them for the first time. The Waratahs have taken competition points from all of their five previous games against the Rebels in Melbourne, winning four and picking up a losing bonus point in the other. The NSW side has won seven of their last nine games away from home in Australia, including each of the last two, winning by an average margin of 17 points in those seven matches. The Rebels (7.3) boast the fewest penalties conceded per game of any team in the competition this season. Israel Folau has scored 13 tries in his last 10 games away from home for the Waratahs, including a brace against the Sharks in the NSW side's last road trip. This is a tough one to call and home ground advantage may just swing the game - the Rebels to sneak a late winner, by five points.