Dems' early cash could pay off in '14

In the 2014 election cycles, Democrats face a harder map and more challenges in maintaining their Senate majority than they did in the last go-around.

But they see a distinct edge in their candidates’ large war chests, with Republicans still figuring out who will run in some of the most competitive states.

Story Continued Below

For weeks, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee officials have highlighted the financial advantage their most vulnerable candidates have — noting that dollars spent by campaigns can go further, and be put to more efficient use, than those of the various outside groups and super PACs that play in these races.

The red-state Democrats facing some of the toughest battles – Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Mark Pryor in Arkansas – have all amassed hefty cash-on-hand advantages. Before announcing his decision to retire, Montana Sen. Max Baucus had amassed nearly $5 million in cash-on-hand. In Colorado, Sen. Mark Udall raised $1.5 million in the first quarter. And in North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan raised $1.6 million the first quarter.

It’s a potential silver lining in a cycle where Democrats will need to defend 21 seats, including in inhospitable states like Arkansas, Montana, and Louisiana, amid a spate of retirements. In Arkansas, for instance, Pryor’s nearly $2 million raised in the first quarter could go far on TV advertising because of the state’s relatively cheap ad rates. The same is true for Alaska, where vulnerable Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has about $1 million in cash on hand that he hopes will frighten prospective GOP rivals.

Republicans may face primaries on the other side in these races, and it’s still an open question as to what level the major GOP-leaning outside groups will invest after an electoral wipeout in 2012. And the hope among Democrats is that shows of financial muscle will be incentive for Republican donors to wait out potentially divisive primaries to settle on their party’s nominees until the general election.

“The cash advantage for Democratic candidates enabled us to hold our own against Republican third party spending in 2012,” said DSCC executive director Guy Cecil. “With our high number of incumbents, their lack of candidates early in the cycle and the likelihood that they will have several divisive primaries, we expect that advantage to grow.”

He added, “Just like we did in 2012, the DSCC will spend considerable time and resources helping candidates raise money because of the strategic advantage it brings.”

Republicans said it’s way too early to fret about the Democrats’ cash edge.

“I don’t think anybody can predict the externalities of the political situation six months or a year from now,” Florida-based Republican strategist Rick Wilson said. “This far out, given the landscape, I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.”

Wilson said he expects that the legislative battles over guns and immigration will ultimately favor Republicans next year.