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NFL Picks

NFL Picks: Houston Texans Team Profile 2015

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the Houston Texans.

The 2015 NFL season commences Thursday night, September 10th, but before we get to Kickoff Weekend we will be here presenting daily team profiles daily in an attempt to assist you with your NFL picks. Today we are profiling the Houston Texans, who finished 9-7 in 2014 and in second place in the AFC South.

First of all, here is a summary of the Houston betting statistics over the past five seasons. Note that all of these stats are for regular season games only.

Houston Texans Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

Home

Away

Overall

ATS Overall

17-21-2

19-19-2

36-40-4

ATS Favorite

13-14-1

10-7-1

23-21-2

ATS Underdog

4-7-1

9-12-1

13-19-2

Avg. Margin

+2.2

-0.6

+0.8

Over – Under

20-20

20-20

40-40

Avg. Total Score

46.0

44.2

45.0

There is not much going on with the Texans splits-wise over the last five years, except for maybe going just 13-19-2, 40.6 percent ATS as an underdog. It is a tad interesting that Houston has performed better as a road favorite (58.8 percent) than as a home favorite (48.1 percent), although that road favorite sampling consists of just 17 decisions.Key Trend: Houston is 14-5, 73.7 percent ATS as a conference favorite between -3 and -6½.

Next we move on to the Texans’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.

2014 Houston Texans Team Statistics (Per Game)

Offense

Off. Rank

Defense

Def. Rank

Points

23.2

14th

19.2

6th

Rushing

135.3

5th

104.6

9th

Yds. Per Rush

3.9

22nd

4.0

10th

Passing

208.9

24th

243.6

21st

Yds Per Pass

6.9

15th

6.3

6th

Total Yards

344.2

16th

348.2

16th

Yds. Per Play

5.3

25th

5.4

16th

Many felt that Houston may have overachieved winning nine games last season considering its poor quarterbacking, but regardless, there was substantial improvement after going 2-14 in 2013. The Texans were even in the playoff hunt until the final day of the season and they did what they had to do by beating Jacksonville in the finale but were eliminated from post-season contention when the Baltimore Ravens also won.

It appears that the sportsbooks do not share the seemingly popular public sentiment that the Texans overachieved last season, as the juiced ‘over’ on their 8½ win-total indicates that the books expect them to match those nine wins. They are also the clear-cut second choices to win the division after the odds-on favored Colts, as the other two teams in the division are both in excess of +2400 at most spots.

Houston Texans Key Additions
The Texans added quality depth to the receiving corps with the additions of Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington, and they improved what was already a great defense with nose tackle Vince Wilfork. And do not forget about quarterback Brian Hoyer, who will battle Ryan Mallet for the starting job during preseason.

Houston Texans Key Losses
That quarterback battle will take place because two signal-callers from last year departed in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum, although neither one was effective. And the aforementioned added wider receiver depth helps offset the loss of Andre Johnson.