Heavyweight boxing & mixed martial arts ratings and commentary

MMA

June 18, 2011

Less than an hour away from the main events of the 2nd half (or "Phase 2") of Strikeforce heavyweight tournament bracket first round. In the other half of the bracket a few months ago, of course, Fedor Emelianenko lost to Antono Silva, while Sergei Kharitanov beat Andre Arlovski.

In tonight's half of the bracket, Josh Barnett takes on Brett Rogers while Alistair Overeem tackles Fabricio Werdum, the other man to beat Fedor recently.

One subplot of these fights is the question: just how many of these guys are on steroids? Overeem gained a huge amount of weight over his career; his defenders claim it was nothing unusual. But his body change looks akin to what Barry Bonds went through. Rogers is another physical freak, while Josh Barnett certainly has a checkered past in terms of PED use. Fabricio Werdum is probably the least suspect, but how many Brazilians were going around 250 pounds 20 years ago? Strikeforce has certainly been less concerned with stringent testing than the UFC in the past; now that they're owned by Zuffa, will that change?

The other subplot is: How do these guys line up against the best heavyweights in the UFC? Once a champion is crowned, how would he do against, say, the winner of Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez?

Barnett vs. Rogers

Josh Barnett (29-5) is ranked 7th in the SportsRatings Heavyweight MMA top 25, and 25th in the overall (pound-for-pound) Top 100. Barnett's career has had its ups and downs, largely due to testing positive for steroids twice three times. One of those results cancelled an entire event during which he was to fight Fedor Emelianenko.

Barnett looked a bit less bulky and less "cut" than normal at the weigh in. Is this what he looks like when not on steroids? Or has he just had to cycle down to pass the tests? Either way, it seems that any advantages he had before might be lessened.

Rogers (11-2) has lost twice after a 10-0 start during which he didn't beat many big names. As a result, he's no longer in our Top 25 among heavyweights. But his losses are to Emelianenko and Overeem, which is nothing to be ashamed of. We think Rogers has a great chance to get a win against a possibly beyond-his-peak Barnett, but he has to overcome the spectre of those two losses to do so.

Ultimately, Rogers might be too one-dimensional for the top rung of the MMA heavyweight division. He's similar to Shane Carwin, who stormed to a 10-0 record but has lost twice now when his punching didn't get the job done. And Carwin has a wrestling background, so he's much less 1-dimensional in theory than Rogers. Barnett in his prime might have been equal to a Junior Dos Santos but those days might be gone.

Overeem vs. Werdum

Alistair Overeem (34-11) is another enigma in terms of his recent career. He racked up many losses when he was a smaller fighter, but since "getting big" he's 9 match winning streak in four different promotions. But few of his opponents have been top names. He beat Rogers after Fedor did, but before that lost to Kharitonov and Werdum, two of the other fighters in the brackets.

He has looked impressive in winning, particularly against Rogers, whom he dominated from the start. In this tournament he will face world-class competition, and if he comes out the winner, he can claim as much as Cain Velasquez to be the world heavyweight champion. However, in our ratings he's only #10 right now.

Who is ranked #1? Believe it or not, it's Fabricio Werdum (14-4-1), who earned an outrageous amount of points due to being the first man in a decade to beat Fedor. Facing Overeem, who is the Strikeforce champ, Werdum will have to prove himself in a hurry. Overeem was considerably less bulky and strong when he lost to Werdum, but Werdum is a lot bigger now, too. Werdum is perhaps the opposite of Brett Rogers in that he has a great BJJ ground game but limited punching power despite his Muay Thai credentials.

We'll find out, basically, whether Werdum's win over Fedor was a fluke. Despite that win, and Werdum's preview win over Overeem, Overeem still has to be considered a favorite.

Strikeforce winner vs. UFC heavyweights

The two promotions' heavyweight rosters are pretty evenly matched. Barnett, Rogers, Werdum, Overeem, Silva, Kharitonov, and Emelianenko are all UFC worthy (only Arlovski, of the tournament competitors, is not anymore). A few years ago, it was probably superior, because of the top slot.

A few years ago, Fedor was still unstoppable, and the UFC didn't really have a great champion. Brock Lesnar was just waiting to be exposed; Shane Carwin is one-dimensional; Frank Mir isn't any better than the Strikeforce fighters; and while Junior Dos Santos is good, he wouldn't necessarily have a better than par chance in the Strikeforce tournament.

But since Cain Velasquez dominated Brock Lesnar, and Fedor lost twice, the top spot among heavyweights has to go to Cain. The tie among the equally-matched stables is broken by the top slot: Cain is the new Fedor.

So for now, Velasquez is the new gold standard for MMA heavyweights. But the Strikeforce winner might get a chance to face the UFC champ. But that fighter would go into the fight against Velasquez an underdog.

February 14, 2011

Fedor Emelianenko's loss to Antonio Silva put all his weaknesses on show: sloppiness on the ground, indifference to getting punched in the face, and general overconfidence bred from winning 25+ fights in a row despite the first two weaknesses. Afterwards Fedor made the case for retirement, and indeed he has been thinking about retiring even before losing to Fabricio Werdum.

Twice now Fedor has lost to standard jiu-jitsu techniques, getting caught in the triangle while in the guard, and getting pummelled while on the bottom of mount position. These are things that everyone in the game today tries to avoid as their first priority, but Fedor's carelessness (and overconfidence that he can remove himself from every trap) made him a victim to both as practiced by BJJ black belts.

So should Fedor retire? He's still #4 in our MMA Top 100, and yet #2 among heavyweights, but this is because he amassed such a huge point lead over the decade 2000 to 2009. Losses don't immediately knock a fighter down like they do in our boxing rankings, as MMA fighters don't have 30-0 records normally. But Fedor's decline seems obvious. Here is his fighting history and current rankings among those he's defeated:

First we see that the fighters that beat him—Werdum and Silva—got a huge boost, in fact most of their points, from beating Fedor. Both are in the top ten overall and top three heavyweights. Could either of them really beat Cain Velasquez? There will be no shortage of competition coming up for the two as they continue through the rounds of the Strikeforce tournament; the four other remaining competitors are Alexander Overeem, Sergei Kharitanov, Brett Rogers, and Josh Barnett.

Also, it's been quite a while since Fedor beat a top opponent who is still highly thought of. This is no secret to those who follow MMA, as everyone makes this argument. His last win over an opponent who is still in the top 100 was in 2004, and that was Nogueira who has lost twice to UFC fighters since then.

It does bring up an interesting point: how many heavyweights Fedor has "ruined." Before losing twice to Fedor, Nogueira was the best in the world, and won 18 straight apart from those losses; since the 2nd loss, he's a more reasonable 8-3. Brett Rogers was 10-0 B.F. (Before Fedor) and is 1-1 since. Andre Arlovski was on a 5-fight winning streak before Fedor; now he's on a 4-fight losing streak and headed for retirement. Even Tim Sylvia didn't lose to any but the best before he took Fedor's beatdown; afterward he lost to aging boxer Ray Mercer and recently to 8-3 Abe Wagner.

One could argue that Fedor has been fighting those past their prime. So is it age or Fedor's knockouts that are hurting these fighters? Certainly Rogers and Arlovski, 28 and 29 when they fought Fedor, weren't over the hill. Sylvia was 32 and Nogueira 27 for their last fight. Really, these are peak ages for MMA fighters; their subsequent declines have a lot to do with Fedor.

It's perhaps more telling to look at where his recent foes were rated when he fought them:

This makes his more recent wins more impressive, while also making his recent losses look worse.

Fedor recently commented that he is a fan of Cain Velasquez and that he thinks Velasquez can remain champion of the UFC for a long time. We've noted that Velasquez fights a lot like a younger Fedor, and perhaps he'll carry the torch if Fedor decides to retire.

October 24, 2010

Cain Velasquez' domination of Brock Lesnar in UFC 121 suggests that the new heavyweight champ could hold the belt for a long, long time. There hasn't been a heavyweight with a skill set this well-rounded since Fedor Emelianenko.

Opinions differ on what stage Fedor's career is at right now, but it's obvious that he dominated the past decade, racking up 27 straight victories before falling to Fabricio Werdum's triangle choke. Fedor's grappling and striking were equally feared, and more than anyone else he didn't flinch when caught in a bad situation.

Velasquez has showed the same skills and fearlessness. He outgrappled Lesnar as well as outpunched him, and when taken down he quickly got to his feet. He didn't hesitate to trade blows with the UFC champ and Lesnar's size didn't bother him at all.

In other words, he fought a lot like Fedor fights. But he also looked quicker than Emelianenko, and less prone to sloppy fighting than The Last Emperor. Could he be better than Fedor? It's possible.

Over the last few years a Lesnar-Fedor matchup was on everyone's mind, and this fight is pretty much how I imagined it would go. Lesnar has improved a lot over the last few years but he still was no technical master. His vaunted grappling prowess—national wrestling championships and all—is more from just being a freakishly huge monster than having the best ability (he has the best ability of all the monsters, and is the biggest monster to boot). So it was only a matter of time before someone truly exposed Lesnar; the problem was that most of the heavyweights available were one-dimensional.

Velasquez punched as well as Carwin and grappled better than Lesnar, with Fedor's fearlessness and unflappability, and he's faster than all of them. That's a recipe for a long career. Normally when a fighter makes a splash and starts off 10-0 or so, it's just a matter of time before his first loss, after which he becomes the typical fighter—wins a few, lose one or two, win a few more. Velasquez might be among the rare exceptions, of which Fedor is the only one so far at heavyweight.

Just as we may never see Fedor vs. Lesnar, we may never see Fedor vs. Velasquez. If we do, it will probably be at least a few years from now, and with Cain only 28 currently, by the time they square off it could be a passing of the torch, from the Last Emperor to the Next One.

August 08, 2010

The triangle choke: once it was the nemesis of anyone who didn't know jiu-jitsu, then it fell out of favor after everyone knew—due to necessity—how to defend it. But recently—particularly in high-profile fights—the triangle choke has been the decisive move.

Months ago it was Fedor Emelianenko who got caught, by Fabricio Werdum. In UFC 117, it was Chael Sonnen, an elite wrestler who controlled the invincible Anderson Silva for 4 1/2 rounds on the ground, who got careless and didn't respect the triangle's power. And Silva—a jiu-jitsu black belt but by no means known for his ground game—was the one who won the fight from the bottom, like Royce Gracie did against Dan Severn 16 years in UFC #4.

Following four other excellent fights, the Silva-Sonnon battle had all the earmarks of a classic. In the first round, the sentiment went from "Silva is going to kill him" quickly to "wow Sonnen really rocked him!" and over the course of the next several minutes, with Sonnon on top and Silva unable to reverse, the realization came that not only was Sonnen going to win the round, that it could be a 10-8 round and that Silva was in definite danger of losing the fight.

The next few rounds did little to dispel that notion. Silva got off a few decent punches and kicks in the first 30 seconds before Sonnon got it to the ground again, and won both rounds convincingly. In a likely 30-26 hole, Silva battled back early in the 4th, rocking Sonnen worse than he had previously, but once it went to the ground the tide turned and Sonnen, despite his bloodied face that leaked all over his opponent, won the fourth round, too.

Silva came out like gangbusters in the fifth round, catching Sonnen with hard shots. But he had tired a lot. Sonnen was gassed by now as well, but he saw the win in hand and adrenaline kept him going. The one minute mark was telling: Silva floored Sonnen, but hesitated before diving in for the kill. When Sonnen got up, and himself rocked Silva, who stumbled, he immediately secured the takedown.

Sonnen only needed to do what he had done all fight: completely control the ground game. Silva had shown no ability to reverse Sonnen, and had taken all of the punishment save a quick jab here or an elbow there. He'd had a few moments over the rounds where he improved his position, but Sonnen corrected, and many times Silva passed up opportunities for armbar attempts. So, inevitably, several minutes went by with Sonnen staying busy to avoid getting stood up, and keeping control of Silva. With just over two minutes to go—one minute to the biggest win of Sonnen's career and UFC history—Silva managed to slip a triangle choke onto Sonnen.

It didn't look pretty, or effective, at first, and perhaps that's why Sonnen didn't do what he needed to in order to escape. Soon he looked caught, though not severely. But then the referee was stopping the action, as both fighters continued to scramble. They were still tangled up, and neither had leverage to move as the referee continued to try to stop the fight. I'm sure it was the same wherever you saw the fight: the crowd immediately protested as it became clear the fight was stopped with Silva declared the winner.

What the replays showed was clear: Sonnen was not only caught, he was nearly out, and had tapped at least once. Perhaps he didn't realize it afterwards, and when Silva let up on the choke he started fighting again. Whatever the case, there was confusion but no controversy from Sonnen after the contest was over.

With the win Silva retains the UFC Middleweight title, and made the Brazil vs. America score a bit more even at 2-3. Junior Dos Santos defeated Roy Nelson in a one-sided match; Matt Hughes rocked Ricardo Almeida and immediately latched on an Anaconda choke from above, trapping Almeida's arm along with his neck, in the first round; hyperactive Clay Guida won a surprise victory over Rafael dos Anjos, who won the majority of the fight until a jaw injury (broken?) forced him to tap while jammed against the fence; and Jon Fitch was just tougher than Thiago Alves again in their rematch.

July 04, 2010

Brock Lesnar proved he can take a punch but Shane Carwin couldn't prove he can go more than one round in UFC 116, with Lesnar winning by an arm-triangle choke from the mount in round two and retaining the UFC Heavyweight title.

Lesnar Retains Title

The first round was all Carwin as he caught Lesnar with an uppercut that had Lesnar retreating and cowering before falling on his back. Pinned to the cage, he covered up as Carwin unleashed blow after blow to his face, opening cuts below both eyes. At times Lesnar was doing nothing more than keeping his hands by his face, but wisely the ref didn't stop the fight. After several minutes Lesnar was able to get to his feet and pin Carwin to the cage, where neither fighter had the strength to do anything. It was a clear 10-8 round for Carwin.

In round two, however, Lesnar quickly took Carwin down and methodically moved into mount position, with Carwin too tired to impede his progress. Lesnar left the mount and shifted to a judo side mount with Carwin's neck and left arm in a choke, which didn't seem to be locked on until it was too late for Carwin, who tapped.

In coming back from a near-death experience last year and surviving Carwin's full assault in the first round, Lesnar shows tremendous resiliency, and should gain respect among MMA doubters for his increasing use of technique in finishing Carwin. He also answered questions about his chin, which seems to be as solid as anyone's in MMA. He still needs work, as evidenced by his poor first round, but seems to be advancing in the sport, and "growing into" his role as the top fighter.

As for Carwin, he may turn out to be another fighter who falls hard after his first loss. Exposed as a fighter who can't go more than one round, and losing his aura of unstoppability, it's unlikely he will start another long winning streak. Of course, a lot of this has to do with the level of competition he is facing now, which is unlike the first ten fighters he fought. Still, the first loss seems to put doubts into fighters, and his career trajectory might follow that of Brett Rogers, a similar big puncher.

Leben Defeats Akiyama late

Yoshihiro Akiyama took the first round as both fighters had submission chances that didn't come very close, but Akiyama controlled the ground game. The second round was wild as both fighters traded shots that dazed the other, until both were nearly out on their feet. I scored this round a tie. The third round saw Akiyama taking down Leben and on top, which normally would give him the round and the win, but Leben started to score from the bottom, with dozens of repeated fists and elbows, that convinced me Leben deserved to win the round. As it turns out, this wouldn't have mattered as most had scored the fight 2-0 for Akiyama at this point. But Leben latched on a triangle that Akiyama couldn't escape from and won the fight. The triangle is really back in business lately!

Leben beats Brown with fantastic submission

Chris Lytle had by far the best submission of the night, beating Matt Brown in the second round. Lytle was caught in a choke while controlling on side mount in the first, but it was clearly not going anywhere when Lytle hadn't tapped after about 15 seconds. He broke free but probably lost the round as Brown used kicks well in standup, too. In the second round Lytle took Brown down and got mount, then side mount with a guillotine choke, and transitioned beautifully into a mounted triangle, which included a vicious arm bar that forced Brown to verbally submit as he was unable to tap (one arm in the triangle, the other being bent backwards by the armbar).

Bonnar toughs it out against Soszynski

Stephan Bonnar survived a tough first round, losing it clearly to Krzysztof Soszynski who wanted to go for the kill in the second round. But Bonnar caught him with a vicious knee that changed the fight completely, and Bonnar rained down punches until the referee stopped the fight.

Sotiropoulos beats Pellegrino

George Sotiropoulos cleanly won the first two rounds but got into a bit of trouble in the third, but not enough to put the outcome of the fight in question. In the end, two UFC judges scored it 30-27 for Sotiropoulos anyway. At the very end of the fight, Pelligrino knew he was down 2-0 and needed to finish, but he waited too long; with 5 seconds left he dropped Sotiropoulos with a knee and just as he was jumping on him to follow up, the fight was over. Had he acted 20 seconds earlier he might have had a chance of a huge comeback.

July 03, 2010

"ex"-UFC champ Brock Lesnar is ranked #3 by SportsRatings among heavyweights, interim champ Shane Carwin
just 9th. But when they battle at UFC 116 tonight, for many it will determine the best Heavyweight MMA fighter in the world.

Has Lesnar recovered from his near-death experience? This is the main question of the fight. Lesnar needed an extended amount of time to recover from his ordeal, which has allowed his body to be fully recovered and trained, but it's been a while since he's been in the ring.

Which is more important—competition level or experience?
Lesnar's limited résumé (5 fights) lends to doubts as to whether he can
survive a technical fight. That is, the longer the fight goes, the more
unfamiliar situations he'll be in. Carwin, however, hasn't had that many
more rounds (12 partial rounds, total) and the competition he's faced
hasn't been as good overall. He has notched wins over Frank Mir and
Gabriel Gonzaga, while in his short career Lesnar has faced Mir twice,
Heath Herring, and Randy Couture.

How much of a puncher's advantage does Carwin have? Carwin is mainly known for his punching, but Lesnar is no slouch in that area. Beyond his ground-and-pound, Lesnar caught Randy Couture with what was essentially a knockout punch. We also don't know who has a better chin, as neither has been extensively tested in that area. Both have eaten a few hard shots and come out unfazed.

How much of a grappling advantage does Lesnar have? Like Lesnar, Carwin was a wrestler in college, but not nearly on the same level. How he'll do when the fight gets in the clinch or goes to the ground is key to his ability to win the fight, even if his grappling is just defensive.

Who will win if stamina becomes an issue? Lesnar's overall health appears good, but again based on his bout with misdiagnosed diverticulosis and time off, his stamina may be an issue if the fight goes three rounds. On Carwin's part, he hasn't proven he can go for a second round, since he hasn't needed to yet. What happens in the later rounds is anyone's guess.

Does size matter? Both fighters are huge; each is at least 6' 2", and both will weight about 265 for the fight. Lesnar has fought at around 280, and Carwin weighs about that "walking around." Both are very strong. One thing that might be settled is which fighter is actually taller; Lesnar claims 6' 3" and Carwin is sometimes listed at 6'4".

Do we really know enough about either of these fighter to make a judgement? Everyone seems to have an opinion about who will win this fight, but with so few big matches between both of them, style differences, and issues regarding each's condition and stamina, I'm not sure any analysis can tell us what's going to happen with reasonable certainty. Overall I've never been impressed with Carwin, who overwhelms opponents offensively but doesn't have a lot of defense. Lesnar relies a lot on his size and power, too, but seems like he's trying to learn the complete game more.

Time off vs. staying busy: One thing that stands out in this fight is how active (or not) each fighter has been. Akiyama took nearly a year between beating Masanori Tonooka in Dream 6 and defeating Alan Belcher in UFC 100. Now it's been almost another year. Leben, in contrast, fought just a few weeks ago, beating Alan Simpson in Ultimate Fighter 11. If readiness vs. ring rust is a factor, Leben has a shot. Otherwise, Akiyama should be a heavy favorite to beat an already-tired competitor.

Youth vs. Experience: Chris Lytle is almost 36 and has been through a lot of fights. Brown is 29 and has a lot fewer. If father time catches up with Lytle he could lose, but otherwise experience should win the day. While Lytle's entire career includes recognizable opponents, Brown has had just five (2 wins, 3 losses) higher-profile fights in his career, including a loss to Lytle in 2007.

History repeats: If that's the case, Soszynski should control the fight and beat Bonnar easily, like he did when they fought in UFC 110. Although the referee stoppage was poor, the decision in the record books accurately reflected the likely outcome. If styles make fights, this one will go much like the last. It's up to Bonnar to throw a wrench in the works.

2nd best matchup of the night: Or at least it is on paper, featuring two quality grapplers. Pellegrino is coming off a solid 4-match win streak, while Sotiropolous has been cleaning up lesser foes. But Sotiropoulos has been unstoppable lately, and even his last loss (Shinya Aoki in 2006) was due to disqualification from a leg kick to the groin after an odd, leg-locked first round. This bout sends the winner to higher ground in the lightweight division.

While Schaub should be a strong favorite, most the rest of the ranked fighters are ranked low for a reason and facing up-and-coming opponents, making the task hard for Petruzelli and Petz. Two fights feature less experienced competitors, with undefeated Dave Branch in his seventh fight against tough Gerald Harris, and undefeated fighters Madsen and Vemola squaring off.

Perhaps the best undercard fight is Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic. Reljic suffered his first loss recently against C.B. Dollaway, and Grove lost to Mark Munoz in UFC 112. With both fighters coming off losses, the winner gets another chance at becoming a main card fighter while the loser sinks further into MMA oblivion.

July 02, 2010

After ruling the top of the MMA charts for the majority of a decade, Fedor Emelianenko's loss to Fabricio Werdum has—very narrowly—given us a new pound-for-pound champion: Georges St. Pierre. Fedor still holds on to the top spot in the Heavyweight rankings.

The SportsRatings MMA Top 100 includes fighters from all weight classes; in the 1990's when weight classes weren't fully instituted, it represented a free-for-all ranking of mixed martial artists from all the different promotions. Today, when weight class fighting is the rule rather than the exception, the MMA rankings can be thought of as a "pound for pound" comparison.

Fedor took over the top spot in March of 2003 after beating then-#1 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He continued to win and distance himself from the fighters at the #2 spot, who included Nogueira, Matt Hughes, B.J. Penn, Mirko Filipovic, Chuck Liddell, Quinton Jackson, and St. Pierre. Of these, Fedor defeated Nogueira twice and Filipovic once.

St. Pierre had been holding at the #2 spot for over two years, since beating Matt Serra in April of 2008. His record is now 20-2 (counting his initial win over Ivan Menjivar, ruled a no-contest at the time) and he's won seven straight fights, avenging both his losses (to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra).

The top spot isn't the only recent change in the SportsRatings MMA Top 100:

AprRank

JulyRank

Fighter

WC

Rating

Rated Record

April-June Results

2

1

Georges St.
Pierre

WW

68.05

18-2-0

1

2

Fedor
Emelianenko

HW

65.03

24-2-0

Lost to #40 Fabricio Werdum

4

3

Anderson Silva

MW

58.54

22-3-0

Def #51 Demian Maia

40

4

Fabricio Werdum

HW

58.32

13-4-1

Def #1 Fedor Emelianenko

7

5

Rashad Evans

LH

49.29

14-1-1

Def #5 Quinton Jackson

26

6

Mauricio Rua

LH

47.84

16-4-0

Def #3 Lyoto Machida

3

7

Lyoto Machida

LH

46.86

12-1-0

Lost to #26 Mauricio Rua

8

8

Jake Shields

MW

42.93

22-4-1

Def #18 Dan Henderson

20

9

Gilbert
Melendez

LW

41.22

16-2-0

Def #6 Shinya Aoki

9

10

Brock Lesnar

HW

37.81

3-0-0

5

11

Quinton Jackson

LH

36.07

22-8-0

Lost to #7 Rashad Evans

Crowded at the top: Werdum bursts into the top 5 while Evans, Rua get big wins

Unlike boxing, where a winning always ranks above their victim, the MMA rankings are more forgiving of losses which come more often to the top fighters. Hence previous #40 Fabricio Werdum doesn't surpass Emelianenko, but still launches himself into the thick of the top-rated fighters. Anderson Silva slides up to #3 while previous #3 Lyoto Machida falls to #7.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, who handed Machida his first loss, jumps from #26 to #6, just behind Rashad Evans, who defeated former #5 Quinton Jackson. This kind of action—fights between top ten fighters—has become rare in heavyweight boxing, perhaps one reason MMA is growing its fan base at boxing's expense.

As noted, Emelianenko holds on to the #1 spot in the Heavyweight rankings

AprilRank

JulyRank

Fighter

WC

Rating

Rated Record

April-June Results

1

1

Fedor
Emelianenko

HW

65.03

24-2-0

Lost to #9 Fabricio Werdum

9

2

Fabricio Werdum

HW

58.32

13-4-1

Def #1 Fedor Emelianenko

2

3

Brock Lesnar

HW

37.81

3-0-0

3

4

Cain Velasquez

HW

35.16

4-0-0

4

5

Josh Barnett

HW

33.79

27-5-0

inactive 17 months.

5

6

Antonio Rodrigo
Nogueira

HW

33.32

30-6-1

6

7

Junior dos
Santos

HW

32.38

5-0-0

8

8

Mirko Filipovic

HW

26.33

21-7-2

Def Patrick Barry

7

9

Shane Carwin

HW

25.88

2-0-0

11

10

Alistair
Overeem

HW

23.66

26-11-0

Def #20 Brett Rogers

Werdum leaps to #2, displacing UFC champ Brock Lesnar ahead of his July 3rd battle with Shane Carwin at UFC 116. Lesnar is not close to the top 2 in rating points and Carwin is only 9th among heavyweights; this is due to the limited résumé of both fighters, who have a combined 5 rated wins among them. Lesnar (or Carwin) will have to put together a string of wins to move up, regardless of whether they (or Fedor or Werdum) are really the best heavyweights in the business. In this game where fighters with short win streaks come and go, only consistency can separate one from the pack.

Strikeforce champ Alistair Overeem is only the 10th ranked heavyweight; his career is spotted with losses throughout. While he's put together a good string of wins—eight in a row—few of them have been over highly-ranked foes. He beat Mirko Filipovic with knees to the groin resulting in a no-contest, and even his recent impressive win over Brett Rogers didn't mean much in terms of rating points.

The Light Heavyweight rankings are also notable for the key fights that took place these last few months. It's the most interesting and competitive division right now.

AprRank

JulyRank

Fighter

WC

Rating

Rated Record

April-June Results

3

1

Rashad Evans

LH

49.29

14-1-1

Def #2 Quinton Jackson

8

2

Mauricio Rua

LH

47.84

16-4-0

Def #1 Lyoto Machida

1

3

Lyoto Machida

LH

46.86

12-1-0

Lost to #8 Mauricio Rua

2

4

Quinton Jackson

LH

36.07

22-8-0

Lost to #3 Rashad Evans

4

5

Chael Sonnen

LH

34.71

19-10-1

With Evans narrowly on top, a battle with UFC #1 Rua will be a great draw. Machida is still in the mix, having only one loss and owning a win over Evans. Jackson may or may not be relevant after his loss to Evans, but can't be counted out if he persues fighting again rather than acting.

In the other weight classes:

Anderson Silva continues his reign as Middleweight champion

Georges St. Pierre, of course, has a huge lead at Welterweight, with Strikeforce champ Jake Shields a very distant 2nd

at Lightweight, Gilbert Melendez takes over at #1 after beating Shinya Aoki. Frankie Edgar's win over B.J. Penn puts him at #2.

June 26, 2010

Fabricio Werdum pulled off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history in beating Fedor Emelianenko with a perfect triangle choke. Fedor tapped after the choke was on tight for quite some time.

Emelianenko knocked Werdum to the matt quickly with a number of shots, but Werdum wasn't hurt and stayed alert while Fedor tried to ground and pound with frankly sloppy punches. As Fedor tried to finish the fight quickly, Werdum got his legs in position and Fedor made a very basic mistake against a BJJ practitioner. He was too focused on his offense and ignored defense completely, as he said in the post-fight interview. Fedor's noted sloppiness finally did him in, as he made a mistake that plagues many beginning MMA fighters—getting caught in the triangle.

The fight was reminiscent of long-ago MMA matchups when jiu-jitsu
competitors took fighters of other styles by surprise—in particular, the
UFC 4 bout where Royce Gracie beat Dan Severn with the same triangle
choke (which some call a triangle armbar because in this case the arm position is crucial, though the key feature is compression of the neck, thus making the term choke more descriptive). That fight lasted a lot longer, well over 10 minutes, in contrast
to this rather quick bout.

The Werdum win throws off Strikeforce's plans for an Emelianenko-Overeem matchup for the title. Werdum says he'd like to rematch Fedor instead of fight for the title. The loss is only Fedor's 2nd, and is really the first time he has clearly been bested. The first time he lost was due to a cut, against Tsuyosha Kohsaka. Fedor's record falls to 32-2, while Werdum's is now 14-4-1.

Did Fedor look past Werdum to Overeem and the Strikeforce title? Perhaps Werdum's rather pedestrian record of accomplishments wasn't sufficient to make Fedor believe Werdum posed a threat. He may have been focused on avenging his brother Aleksander's loss to Werdum, as evidenced by his seeming desire to end the fight quickly and with punches. Some will say that Fedor has slipped and his days of dominance are over.

Another possibility, however, is that Werdum trained well and truly has announced his emergence as one of the great heavyweights in MMA today.

Fluke, or not? That is what MMA fans will be debating in the aftermath of the upset.

The main event features #1 heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist who previously defeated Fedor's brother Aleksander. The winner will take on current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

In other fights, women's champ Cyborg Santos defends her middleweight title, and Cung Le gets a chance for revenge against Scott Smith, who scored a last-second upset KO over Le in a fight that Le dominated start to finish.

Undercard fights

Pat Healy vs. Josh Thompson - lightweight bout (155)

Round 1 - Great grappling; Thompson had an armbar and triangle nearly locked in but not quite. Healy came back with a supplex. Close round, Thompson 10-9 due to getting close on subs. 10-9

Round 2 - Some striking by Thompson, Healy takes him down but gets a kick in the face. Healy controlling him on top for several minutes, gets in some good strikes. Good elbows to thighs by Thompson, and nearly has a couple of armbars but Healy clearly wins the round. 19-19.

Round 3 - Thompson may need a submission to win the fight, since the first round was close. More striking in the first minute, Thompson a bit better. Healy traps him and eventually takes him down, but Thompson reverses with 2 minutes left. After a LONG choke Healy taps, getting the submission he needed to avoid needing what might have been a controversial hometown decision.

Round 1 - Quick exchanges, backed up to the fence. Cyborg hitting hard, lands a knee to the face. To her credit Finney holds on. Cyborg lands a huge shot and Finney holds on for dear life. Cyborg in full control, but hits multiple shots to the back of Finney's head and gets a point deducted, which is completely fair. Finney still has fight left in her but is being overwhelmed. Takes a million shots but survived a clear 10-8 round, made 9-8 due to the deduction.

Round 2 - Good opening shot by Finney. More ground and pound by Cyborg. Amazing that Finney is still defending. Fighters stood back up. Finney finally dropped for good by a knee and the fight is stopped. Amazing effort by Finney, though, showing incredible courage in a fight she was losing from the start.

Scott Smith vs. Cung Le - middleweight bout (185)

Round 1 -Smith rushed Le, chasing him back and into the fence. Back to the center; Smith still agressive. Le counterpunching well. Good combo by Le hurts Smith, who goes for a takedown that Le stops. Le pounding Smith's midsection; Smith stands it up against the fence. Le delivers good shot, and head kick, and has Smith down to end the round. Le 10-9.

Round 2 - Smith agressive again. Le good with his kicks to the head; spinning kick stuns Smith, who crumples to the matt. Le pound on his back, but Smith gets up. Back to center.Another spinning kick drops Smith, some pounding and the fight is stopped! Le avenges his only loss in excellent, crowd-pleasing fashion at 1:46.

May 29, 2010

UFC 114, featuring the main event of Quinton Jackson vs. Rashad Evans. Jackson is #5 and Evans #7 in the latest SportsRatings MMA Top 100 (as of April). Among light heavyweights they are #2 and #3, and the winner has a chance to claim the top spot due to Lyoto Machida's loss to Shogun Rua in UFC 113.

Other noted combatants include "Little Nog" Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a light heavyweight match, and Michael Bisping fighting at middleweight. At heavyweight relative newcomer Todd Duffee is back after having won his first UFC fight in a record 7 seconds.

Round One: The undefeated (but unranked in the top 100) Hathaway won the first round decisively. As Sanchez went for a takedown Hathaway met his head with a knee. The next several minutes saw Hathaway landing shots from inside Sanchez's guard. Hathaway 10-8.

Round Two: Much more even, much more standup, but Hathaway won a close round. 10-9 Hathaway; 20-17.

The judges called it pretty much the same: 30-27, 30-27, and 30-26 for Hathaway getting the upset win.

Light Heavyweight: #23 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz

Round One: A back and forth round which saw both men on top on the ground, then back to standup. Close, awkward round but Brilz might have gotten more ground-and-pound in than Little Nog. Brilz 10-9.

Round Two: A takedown by Brilz turned into a near-guillotine by Nog, but as these things almost always work out he couldn't hold it. Then tired, he got caught in a very bad choke himself but held on as they wrestled for position. Brilz then changed to a forearm choke before going for some ground and pound. But again the strain of holding a choke for 2 minutes left him tired, and Nogueira was able to escape to his feet. Brilz tried a few more takedowns but failed and generally lost the standup, though a few wild shots connected late. Brilz 10-9; 20-18.

Round Three: A Brilz takedown was reversed by Nog, then both stood up again. Nog is fighting like he thinks he needs a stoppage to win, which may be the case. On the ground again, Nog tried a submission from unorthodox position, but the fighters stood again. Brilz attempts another takedown resulting in another unorthodox position. Nog trapped one of Brilz's arms with his legs and almost had him in a terrible position. But Brilz escaped, and survived some ground and pound at the end. Nogueira 10-9; SportsRatings' card: Brilz 29-28.

A really interesting fight with lots of twists and turns. It could go either way based on the first round scoring. Not surprisingly, the crowd takes issue with the split decision for Nogueira: 29-28, 29-28, and 28-29. Though I had it for Brilz, the first round was awkward and close. Joe Rogan has to notify us that the crowd is shouting "bullshit" in the middle of Nog's interview. Classy, Joe. But Brilz shows great class in not criticizing the decision, and telling the crowd not to boo Nogueira.

Heavyweight: Todd Duffee (6-0) vs. Mike Russow (12-2)

Round One: Duffee, in far better shape than Russow, quickly takes control of the standup with some damaging shots. Russow can't close for an effective takedown. But he survives the initial onslaught from Duffee. The rest of the round is uneventful save one big shot by Duffee, who easily wins the round. Duffee 10-9.

Round Two: Russow isn't showing much, playing defense and attempting a pathetic takedown now and then. Two minutes in Duffee has him in some more trouble, but Russow has a tough chin and won't go down. Duffee fights well but looks vulnerable to a good puncher, which Russow isn't. Duffee keeps things in the center of the ring, and wins this round clearly. Duffee 10-9; 20-18.

Round Three: The crowd is getting impatient at the stalemate nature of the fight. Russow can't do anything, and he won't fall to Duffee's punches, which are becoming fewer and farther between as he tires. SUDDENLY RUSSOW GETS A KO!!! Yes, Duffee was vulnerable to the punch, I stand by that...

Duffee was laid out cold on his back by a right cross that took him completely by surprise at 2:35. That shows you how much a good defense, a good chin, and perseverance will do for you. Nothing was working for him, and all he was trying were takedowns that weren't effective, but he kept trying. Duffee, on the other hand, was exposed as a very one-dimensional fighter with a defense problem (and a questionable chin).

Middleweight: #152 Michael Bisping vs. #317 Dan Miller

Two fighters trying to regain their form at middleweight are up next. Bisping has lost 2 of his last 3, and Miller his last 2 fights.

Round One: Bisping catches a kick in the crotch but he's ok. Over the next few minutes few punches connect, Miller lands a few soft kicks, and Bisping has a good straight right. An active but uneventful round won by Bisping 10-9.

Round Two: Miller is kicking a bit more frequently. Bisping responds with punches and eventually a high kick of his own, then a strong right hand in the middle of the round. Miller's face is bloodied. Despite a last second shot from Miller, Bisping clearly wins the round. 10-9 Bisping; 20-18.

Round Three: Bisping unloading; Miller returns fire but so does Bisping. Both want to win by stoppage. After two minutes, Miller gets a takedown into Bisping's guard. Bisping quickly escapes to his feet. Miller's next takedown attempt only gets to a fence clinch. Bisping continues to dominate the standup and he survives Miller's last ditch succession of wild punches to get the win. Bisping 10-9; SportsRatings card: Bisping 30-27

Miller had his moments but Bisping had more of them. The UFC judges call it 30-27, 30-27, and 29-27 for Bisping.

Round One: Evans connects with a hard punch early that rocks Jackson; Evans pins him against the fence. Rampage tries to hold off the takedown for several minutes and the fight is reset. Rampage misses a wild punch and Evans dives for a takedown, getting good partial mount position against the fence. Rampage somehow stands up but Evans controls the action. Another reset from against the fence. Jackson gets his best punch in with seconds to go, but Evans wins the round. Evans 10-9.

Round Two: Evans battles inside for a clinch, and gets Jackson against the fence where I'm sure the fight will go at least once every round. Rampage forces his way out, but they go right back there again a minute later. The third reset of the fight from the fence. Rampage misses wildly, with Evans keeping far distance. Once again the the fence; Evans can't get the takedown from there, but delivers some knees. He takes Jackson's back on a takedown attempt and once again forces him into the cage. Not much offense that round. Evans 10-9; 20-18.

Round Three: Rampage's corner implores that he needs a KO this round. Evans' speed is giving him problems though. He misses on a wild right, and another. Evans' takedown is stuffed and Rampage hits him with a huge shot, and goes on to ground and pound. Somehow Evans survives against the cage, and even gets back up with the round half over, relatively unharmed considering what could have happened. Evans gets a tackdown and has Rampage in bad position, landing punches to the face at side mount. Rampage stands but Evans takes him back down with 30 seconds left. Rampage stands again. Evans turns a clear Jackson round into one of his own, as his ground and pound was more effective. Evans 10-9; SportsRatings' card: Evans 30-27.

Evans wins a unanimous decision by the judges, 30-27, 30-27, and 29-28. He sets up a bout with Mauricio Rua for the UFC light heavyweight title. Seems like Rampage was a step slow. Perhaps making movies and having to cut a lot of weight took its toll.