PDL Vote Plummets by 75% as Parties are Humbled

Early analyses of the Sicilian regional election focus on the percentage of votes obtained by each party. But given the large number of abstentions, interpretations are based on just half of the potential electorate. It is this that prompts us to look at the outcome also in terms of the absolute numbers of votes secured by the various contenders, an approach that highlights even more starkly how far back the political groups have slid. For example, the percentage lost by Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PDL) was already clear but if we compare absolute numbers, it is stunning to note that the PDL has lost a whopping 650,000 votes, three quarters of its previous voter base. Even factoring in votes secured by the “Lombardo presidente” and “Musumeci presidente” lists, the damage is enormous. These are voters who have opted not to turn out or, in many cases, to cast their vote for Beppe Grillo. The collapse reminds us that recent nationwide opinion polls revealed a drastic contraction of voting intentions for the PDL. Inevitably, there will be an impact on the PDL’s already fraught internal relations.

At the same time, as Stefano Ceccanti was quick to point out in an analysis published online, another part of the Centre-right linked to Gianfranco Miccichè has also lost ground, albeit less spectacularly. Meanwhile on the other side of the political fence, the alliance of the Democratic Party (PD) and Christian Democrat UDC took a significant voter haircut, despite emerging the winner (or less of a loser). Even including preferences for candidate lists (Crocetta-Finocchiaro), the PD shed almost 250,000 votes in absolute terms, a highly significant proportion of its electoral base at the previous regional poll. Similarly, the UDC saw 130,000 votes, or almost 40% of its previous total, evaporate. In other words, the Centre-left may have secured the regional authority chair but the result leaves a bittersweet taste because, as Roberto D’Alimonte notes in II Sole 24 Ore newspaper, the alliance failed to garner new votes at a time of great electoral fluidity. Put bluntly, Pierluigi Bersani’s party in Sicily seems to have been unable to convince or mobilise the disaffected. To the contrary, some appear to have moved elsewhere. Various observers had suggested that the PD might lose votes to the far Left after clinching its alliance with the UDC in Sicily but this failed to occur. Instead, the radical Left also bled votes, losing more than half of its electoral base and dropping from 2008’s 131,000 to 59,000 last Sunday.

In other words, a broad swath of the political spectrum was left with fewer votes than before. The only party to buck the trend was Italy of Values (IDV), which gained just under 18,000 votes. As the Istituto Cattaneo has pointed out, it is a disappointing result in the wake of the high hopes prompted by Leoluca Orlando’s success in the municipal elections.

It is clear that the Five Star MoVement (M5S) and the serried ranks of the “abstainers’ party” have benefited from this voting trend. Beppe Grillo’s M5S picked up nearly 240,000 votes, expanding its electorate by a factor of five. Nevertheless, abstainers accounted for a much higher proportion as this time almost 800,000 Sicilians opted not to cast a vote.

Both support for M5S and the surge in abstention rates have been widely interpreted as indicative of protest and disaffection. Voting intention surveys hint that the phenomenon involves not just Sicily but the whole of Italy.