High Taxes Don't Make Rich People Move

You’ve heard the old line about three kinds of falsehoods: lies, damned lies and statistics. All three are easy to find on the Internet.

Unlike lies, though, statistics can be useful if taken with a grain of salt.

For instance, you want to remember that correlation doesn’t equal causation. If event A repeatedly occurs right before event B, it doesn’t mean A causes B. Maybe they’re connected, or maybe it’s just coincidence. You can’t be sure until you dig deeper.

This matters for both economic and public policy questions. Recently, I got a useful reminder of this that might surprise you. It has to do with moving millionaires.

A big part of the problem is that taxpayers in the U.S. can (and do) move. High-tax states that desperately need the revenue to fund pension obligations may see their wealthiest residents move to lower-tax states.

The evidence certainly is there. For years, the populations of high-tax states have been shrinking while low-tax states have been gaining residents.

But that’s just correlation.

Are people really leaving the high-tax states because the taxes are so high?

And are the people leaving high-tax states the same people who pay the highest tax rates?

This is where the “proof” gets murky.

We know many wealthy people have not fled New York, California and other high-tax places, and don’t intend to, so apparently, there are reasons to stay.

Millionaires Don’t Move Because of High Taxes

In his 2017 book, The Myth of Millionaire Tax Flight: How Place Still Matters for the Rich, Stanford University sociologist Cristobal Young questioned whether wealthy people are really so mobile.

Young’s research, based on 13 years of tax data for every U.S. millionaire, says the opposite is more accurate. Only about 2.5% of millionaires moved to new states each year, and not all went to lower-tax states.

One reason is that millionaires tend to be older people with deep roots in their communities. They have family and business ties. They like living where they do.