We investigated whether uncertainty in the process of reward pursuit increases individuals’ tendency to perform reward-related activities. We compared the effectiveness of traditional reward programs (for example, buy six coffees, get one free) with probability-based reward programs (for example, buy a coffee and get a 10% chance of winning a free coffee, with a guaranteed free coffee after nine purchases). Although the expected number of repeated actions required to obtain the reward was equal between programs, we found that people displayed higher program return rates, higher completion rates, and a higher number of repeated actions in a probability-based reward program. The effect was stronger when the probability of winning increased with the number of purchases rather remaining flat. We argue that probability-based programs are more effective because people perceive each purchase as having a greater impact on achieving the final reward.

个人简介：

金立印，复旦大学管理学院市场营销系教授、副系主任，决策与行为科学研究中心执行主任。研究领域为消费者心理与行为。论文发表于Journal of Consumer Research、Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Retailing、 International Journal of Research in Marketing， Journal of Service Research等国际学术期刊;研究成果多次获得包括亚洲营销科学学术年会、中国营销科学学术年会所颁发的最佳论文奖。主持和参与完成国家自然科学基金重点项目、面上项目和青年项目;入选上海市曙光学者，是2014年度国家自然科学基金优秀青年基金的获得者。