In terms of Property Types…

“First liens accounted for 96 percent of the total dollar volume closed. The reported dollar volume of commercial and multifamily mortgages closed last year was eight percent higher than the volume reported in 2017. Among repeat participants in the survey, the dollar volume of closed loans increased by four percent.”

Jamie Woodwell Vice President, Mortgage Bankers Association

With loan originations on the rise, the need for site assessments has never been more important. UES Consulting and our team of inspectors are well-versed in the demands of commercial and multi-family transactions and how thorough, time-sensitive Phase I Environmental Site Assessments and Property Condition Assessments can help the process run smoothly and close on time. If you are looking for a company to partner with on your Commercial Real Estate transactions of any kind, turn to our in-house engineers and environmental consultants to alleviate the burden of environmental issues and mitigate risks.

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Commercial Real Estate has never been in a better spot but you have to ask the question, what’s coming next?

MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell expressed his opinion for the sector at the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Servicing & Technology Conference.

“We’re currently in the longest economic expansion ever,” Woodwell said. “There have been a couple negative quarters here and there, but not two in a row, which is the definition of a recession. So there’s been an incredibly long run of economic expansion.“

Woodwell quoted multiple record-setting metrics: Commercial property cap rates are at record lows; MBA accounted a record $574 billion in multifamily and commercial mortgage bankers originations last year; plus loan delinquency rates are at or near record lows.

“So, there are a lot of phenomena going on, putting us in a place we’ve never seen before,” Woodwell said. “Thus, the question becomes what’s next?“

That answer is dependent on your outlook on life.

People on the optimistic spectrum may say they don’t see anything likely to change the current thriving situation. While others may say, “it’s been a great run, so I’m going to get ready for what comes next,” Woodwell said.

So let’s get into the details…

Woodwell used the first quarter’s 3.2% real GDP growth rate to back the current strength of the U.S. economy. Unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point in 50 years and job growth has averaged above 200,000 per month thus far in 2019. “That’s boosted wages, which economists had expected would happen well before now,” said Woodwell.

On the other end, our economies great performance could guide some inflation pressure. “But that has not yet materialized,” Woodwell said. “Some think trade tariffs could start to bring more inflation on.”

With this economic situation, each commercial property type has a unique story to tell…

Multifamily sector: Moving fast in terms of both supply and demand for apartments. The younger generation is filling the shoes of their parents, which supports high demand for multifamily properties. The main surge is in Millennials since they’re beginning to demand apartments and form households; mainly high-quality urban newly developed apartments.

Office sector: Shows a long steady run of positive job growth, but on the flip side, companies are using a smaller space per employee; which leads to the recent fairly stable market. Nevertheless, wage pressure increases while employers struggle to keep their top employees in the middle of an extended strong job market.

“One tool employers could use would be to reverse the recent trend of shrinking office space and increase the room given to employees in an effort to compete for talent,” he said.

Retail sector: Definitely has witnessed the largest changes, mostly due to E-commerce, which has taken over almost 10% of all retail sales and persists to grow 3 basis points each quarter.

“But consumer consumption is strong enough that both E-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores can grow–as long as consumer spending continues, Woodwell said. “But if consumer spending should slip, which will lose more?,” he asked.

Industrial Sector: Has experienced positive evolving changes that have rarely been seen in the past such as new warehouse properties with a second or third story. With manufacturing shipments and E-commerce growing at record highs, the industrial sector continues to thrive–and evolve.

In conclusion…

“When I think about what’s likely to happen, I come back to the idea of a plateau,” Woodwell said. “Coming off a record year of originations, I don’t see much pulling those numbers down, and I also don’t see much pushing those numbers much higher, so we generally see a plateau for originations for the next few years. If we continue to run at this level, that still means growth in mortgage debt outstanding because of maturities, and that means there will likely be more need for servicers like you to service these loans.”

Commercial and Multifamily Originations rose to new levels in 2018 with a record amount of loans resulting in $573.9 billion loans. Learn how this happened, what factors such as growing property values, low interest rates, solid fundamentals, and strong appetites from lenders and borrowers led to this record. We break down the numbers and find out Commercial Bank portfolios led the capital source then GSEs, Government Sponsored Enterprises, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae then Life Insurance Companies and pension funds, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities issuers, investment funds, REITs and mortgage REITS. Multifamily properties had the highest mortgage bankers' origination volume followed by retail properties, industrial, health care, office buildings, and hotel/motel

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UES employees were excited to sponsor a local event that raises support for youth in low income regions. We are passionate about empowering and equipping the next generation for success.

The event, Power of Words, was held in the Power and Light District in Kansas City, Missouri by Youth Ambassadors(YA). YA is a not-for-profit organization that empowers undeserved youth with important life skills, soft job skills, creative expression, and adult mentors who help them become future community leaders willing and able to work for positive change.

There were original works from the programs students that attendees could enter to win in a raffle. Here’s an example of one of the students work. Students presented impressive poems and writing excerpts during the dinner. It was an amazing event aimed to paint a brighter future for some of Kansas City’s most vulnerable and at-risk youth.

Commercial and Multifamily Originations rose to new levels in 2018 with a record amount of loans resulting in $573.9 billion loans. Learn how this happened, what factors such as growing property values, low interest rates, solid fundamentals, and strong appetites from lenders and borrowers led to this record. We break down the numbers and find out Commercial Bank portfolios led the capital source then GSEs, Government Sponsored Enterprises, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae then Life Insurance Companies and pension funds, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities issuers, investment funds, REITs and mortgage REITS. Multifamily properties had the highest mortgage bankers' origination volume followed by retail properties, industrial, health care, office buildings, and hotel/motel

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What are the reasons for these movements?

The first is the news of rising interest rates, trade wars dominating the airways, government shutdown all leading towards business uncertainty. Second is the quick pace of advancing technology which affecting commercial real estate space. Lastly, as seen nationwide popular retailers are quickly closing down and declaring bankruptcy forcing shopping centers to clear out or shut down at rapid rates.

“The real estate industry has become the poster child for uncertainty and anxiety.”

How to overcome this as a CRE investor?

Get ahead of the curve with 3 practical applications below that will help you stay relevant and pivot quickly in response to the shifting industry movements.

1. Fill the space.

“Real estate investment companies should reconsider their existing tenant mix. Long gone are the days of 10 to 15 year leases. With any uncertainty in the business market, corporations are often looking for a short-term lease.“

Therefore, re-evaluate your long-term leases & business model.

“While short-term leases may alter financial forecasting and real estate valuation, immediate increases in net operating income will outweigh the risk of carrying the vacant space.“

A major trend is to start diversifying the tenant mixes for overall appeal of your property. An example is mall owners are lending their empty space to startup restaurants, co-working companies, or incubators in hopes it will lure more tenants into the property. These tenants don’t pay rent or nearly as much but will increase foot traffic, visibility, and popularity.

2. Build Relationships

In uncertain times it’s important to focus on growth capital and support from partners and peers. For future stability and success it’s vital to build relationships.

“While the industry is in the growth cycle, capital is bountiful. However, as soon as the cycle turns, having capital is the difference between muddling through and controlling destiny.”

“Understanding and growing capital relationships comes in two forms: existing capital sources and new prospects with unrelated capital allocations.”

For existing capital relationships, constant communication is crucial. Banking relationships vary with the economic cycles change. Investment executives need to keep in step with bank’s directions and anticipate said direction would have on business.

Here are some examples…

“Banks that focus on real estate lending might concentrate on commercial and industrial loans after a merger which, in turn, might diminish the negotiating power of borrowers in a downturn.

In addition to current capital providers, real estate managers should focus on acquiring alternative sources of equity and debt.

A multitenant office owner might want to seek a partnership with a single, long-term tenant equity provider in order to mitigate the risk of short-term leases.

3. Diversify your assets.

According to past data, these changes in real estate are not hitting all markets. An example is the highs and lows of employment rates may affect the office market but the industrial market could flourish due to the increased shift towards e-commerce.

During the last cycle, manufactured housing and self-storage sectors performed better than other property types.

“According to Trepp Bank Research’s April 2017 report of historical CRE losses, self-storage had the lowest average loan loss severity of all property sectors at 1.52%, while manufacturing housing loss was at 3.53%. Comparatively, in a different sector, retail had an average loss rate of 6.17% and office at 6.13%. While taking into consideration these examples, property sectors (per research completed by Nareit in December 2018) and manufactured homes provided total returns of 24.93% and 11.43% for the years 2017 and 2018, respectively.“

Gaining property sector diversity can lessen risk across your business. But be cautious in your decisions. “While diversification can provide a footing to weather storms, businesses must be prudent as diversification efforts have their own risks. “

What crucial questions do you ask before making final decisions in this ages industry?

What oversights can be pulled from current practices?

Who are the allies in this diversification process?

“To stay relevant, future real estate leaders need to continue on the path of innovation. While transformation is tough, the only way to continue growing is to advance with the times. As it was in previous cycles, great things come to those who are able to pivot during the hardest times.“