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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Republican Presidential Candidates: The Climate May Be Changing, But That Doesn’t Mean We Should Stop Burning Fossil Fuels

By Amelia Schlusser, Staff Attorney

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
recently reported
that average atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeded 400
parts per million (ppm) for the entire month of March. Pieter Tans, lead
scientist for NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, explained that
this is a significant milestone, because it marks the first time that
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have caused global CO2
concentrations to rise by more than 120 ppm over pre-industrial levels.

Rising CO2 concentrations are having a
significant impact on the global climate. A new
study published in the journal Nature
Climate Change found that over the past ten years, global sea levels rose
faster than previous research had indicated. The ice sheet in West Antarctica
is melting, and new research indicates that the ice sheets in East Antarctica
are beginning
to melt as well. These two ice sheets have the potential to cause global
sea levels to rise by more than 20 feet, and thanks to the effects of gravity,
the United States could experience a 25%
greater rise in sea levels. The impacts of climate change are being felt on
a more localized level as well. For example, California is suffering from
crippling and historic drought, and the U.S. Forest Service recently found that
approximately 12
million forest trees have died in that state over the last year.

The so-called “debate” over climate change is grounded in
ideological convictions rather than scientific evidence. The science is
overwhelmingly conclusive—the climate is changing, and the last decade was the
warmest on record. There is also an overwhelming consensus among the
scientific community that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are contributing
to the current warming trend. According to NASA, “97
percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree:
Climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human
activities.” Conservative politicians, however, have been slow to accept the
conclusions from the scientific community. Earlier this year, the U.S. senate
passed a measure stating that “climate
change is real and is not a hoax.” However, only five Republican senators
voted in favor of an amendment stating that “climate change is real (and) human
activity significantly contributes to climate change.”

With the Environmental Protection Agency poised to finalize
the Clean Power Plan this summer (and thus regulate CO2 emissions
from existing power plants), it seems inevitable that climate change will be a
prominent issue in the 2016 presidential debate. Hillary Clinton recently clarified
that she believes climate change is a real threat and the government should do
“whatever it takes” to convince Americans that it’s in their best interest to
take action to reduce emissions.

Republican presidential contenders, however, have persisted
in denying that human activity is contributing to climate change. New
Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has not officially announced his candidacy,
recently made headlines
by announcing that he believes in human-driven climate change. Other prominent
GOP candidates have adopted more skeptical positions. The following discussion
summarizes the climate change positions of the current contenders for the GOP
presidential nomination.

Republican
Presidential Candidates: A Turning Point for Climate Change Acceptance?

According to ClimateWire, New Jersey Governor
Chris Christie acknowledged that he believes climate change is real and caused
by human activities. Christie, who has not officially announced his candidacy,
called for the nation’s leaders to support “strong
solutions to reduce carbon pollution.” However, Gov. Christie also withdrew
New Jersey from the Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in 2012,
describing the plan as “completely
useless.”

In January, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee expressed
his opinion that Islamic extremism poses a greater risk to the United
States than climate change. However, according to Greenwire, Huckabee recently voiced
his support for renewable energy, and stated that Americans “shouldn’t demonize
renewable fuels.” Nevertheless, Huckabee’s energy plan also calls for the
United States to lift prohibitions on crude oil and natural gas exports and eliminate
regulations restricting oil and gas exploration on federal lands.

A few GOP candidates acknowledge that the global climate is
changing, but believe that the economic costs associated with mitigation
efforts would outweigh the potential climate benefits from reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is admittedly “concerned”
about the changing climate, but explained that he is more concerned about “our
ability to compete in an increasingly competitive world.” The potential
presidential contender further argued that the United States can continue to
reduce emissions by relying on natural gas. Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fl.)
believes in climate change, but is skeptical that human activity is responsible
for warming temperatures. In an April interview, Rubio stated, “I
believe the climate is changing because there’s never been a moment where the
climate is not changing.” However, the Florida senator questions whether
efforts to reduce emissions would have any effect on the climate, and argues
that regulations to mitigate climate change “would
have a devastating impact on our economy.”

Other GOP contenders fail to view climate change as a
significant threat to American citizens. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) believes that climate change is real, but he argues
that the science indicates that the earth has not warmed “significantly” in the
past 17 years.He also claimed that “the
global warming alarmists are the equivalent of the flat-Earthers.” Rand
Paul, on the other hand, questions whether climate change is actually
occurring. As Grist’s Ben Adler reported,
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a climate change denier who thinks the science
surrounding climate change is inconclusive and argues that reports of sea level
rise and drowning polar bears are merely “alarmist” rhetoric.

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry is perhaps the most outspoken
climate change denier in the pool of potential GOP presidential contenders.
Perry has consistently denied the existence of human-driven climate change,
even after he issued a proclamation
in 2013 stating that Texas’s “drought conditions have reached historic levels
and continue to pose an imminent threat to public health, property, and the
economy.” In a 2014
interview, Perry argued that labeling CO2 as an air pollutant would do a
“disservice” to the country and the world, and that reducing coal consumption
would “strangle our economy.”

While it’s refreshing to see some conservative lawmakers
acknowledge that the global climate is indeed changing, it appears that the
bulk of the GOP’s presidential contenders still place greater weight on industry
interests and ideological agendas than scientific consensus. The inability to
accept that human activity contributes to climate change is likely politically
motivated—according to a Gallup
poll, 40% of conservative Republicans believe that climate change will
never have negative impacts on the planet. From a statistical standpoint,
therefore, Republican candidates will have a better chance of winning their
party’s nomination if they deny that human activity contributes to global
warming.

However, this strategy may work against the GOP during the general
election. New polling
data from Yale and Utah State University found that in every single county
in the United States, a majority of Americans believe that CO2
should be regulated as an air pollutant. Most Americans now acknowledge that
climate change presents a serious threat, and they may be less inclined to vote
for a presidential candidate that refuses to take accountability for our
collective impact on the global environment.