May 16, 2012

Tight gubernatorial race in N.H.

Raleigh, N.C. – Except for the Republican primary, the New Hampshire gubernatorial race is a complete dead heat. The two Democrats, Jackie Cilley and nominal frontrunner Maggie Hassan, are in a tight battle for the primary, and either one would start out tied with presumed GOP nominee Ovide Lamontagne—all with lots of voters undecided.

With President Obama up double digits on Mitt Romney and incumbent Democratic Gov. John Lynch very popular (60% approve, 28% disapprove), one would expect the Democrats to have an edge. But Lamontagne, having run statewide before, has the name identification advantage over Cilley and Hassan. Only 27% have an opinon on Cilley personally, and 31% of Hassan, versus 62% of Lamontagne and 25% of the other Republican, Kevin Smith.

Hassan edges Cilley in the early primary matchup, 23-20, with 57% undecided. Lamontagne, on the other hand, has a clear 53-13 lead over Smith in their primary. In the general, Cilley and Lamontagne are dead-locked at 38% apiece, while Lamontagne edges Hassan, 40-39.

The good news for Hassan and Cilley is that considerably more Democrats and independents are undecided than Republicans in the horse races with Lamontagne, and the combination of Lynch’s and Obama’s backing should be enough to put them over the top in a presidential year in a blue-leaning swing state.

“This race looks like a sheer toss up at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the Democratic candidates have more room to grow as they become better known than Lamontagne does.”

Opinion continues to move toward same-sex marriage here and elsewhere. When PPP last polled the state in July 2011, 51% thought it should be legal and 38% illegal. Now that sentiment breaks down at 57-35.

PPP surveyed 1,163 New Hampshire voters from May 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. The poll also included 477 Democratic primary voters and 555 Republican primary voters with the margins of error for those subsets +/-4.5% and +/-4.2% respectively. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall wereDemocrat Jackie Cilley and Republican OvideLamontagne, who would you vote for?Jackie Cilley.................................................... 38%Ovide Lamontagne.......................................... 38%Undecided....................................................... 24%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall wereDemocrat Maggie Hassan and RepublicanOvide Lamontagne, who would you vote for?Maggie Hassan............................................... 39%Ovide Lamontagne.......................................... 40%Undecided....................................................... 21%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall wereDemocrat Jackie Cilley and Republican KevinSmith, who would you vote for?Jackie Cilley.................................................... 37%Kevin Smith..................................................... 32%Undecided....................................................... 31%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall wereDemocrat Maggie Hassan and RepublicanKevin Smith, who would you vote for?Maggie Hassan............................................... 37%Kevin Smith..................................................... 31%Undecided....................................................... 32%

Q10 If there was an election for the state legislaturetoday, would you vote Democratic orRepublican?Democratic...................................................... 47%Republican...................................................... 41%Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q12 Which of the following best describes youropinion on gay marriage: gay couples shouldbe allowed to legally marry, or gay couplesshould be allowed to form civil unions but notlegally marry, or there should be no legalrecognition of a gay couple's relationship?Gay couples should be allowed to legallymarry ..............................................................54%Gay couples should be allowed to form civilunions but not marry .......................................31%There should be no legal recognition of a gaycouple's relationship .......................................13%Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q13 Do you support or oppose changing the law inNew Hampshire to allow seriously andterminally ill patients to use and grow medicalmarijuana for personal use if their doctorsrecommend it?Support ........................................................... 65%Oppose ........................................................... 24%Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q14 The Democratic candidates for Governor areJackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan. If theelection was today, who would you vote for?(Asked of 477 Democratic primary voters)Jackie Cilley.................................................... 20%Maggie Hassan............................................... 23%Undecided....................................................... 57%

Q15 The Republican candidates for Governor areOvide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith. If theelection was today, who would you vote for?(Asked of 555 Republican primary voters)Ovide Lamontagne.......................................... 53%Kevin Smith..................................................... 13%Undecided....................................................... 34%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 52%Man................................................................. 48%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 34%Republican...................................................... 31%Independent/Other.......................................... 35%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 12%30 to 45........................................................... 24%46 to 65........................................................... 39%Older than 65.................................................. 25%

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