MLB Betting Notes for All Five Monday Games on Draft Day

It’s MLB Draft Day, when a number of franchises will draft a player who will become a household name over the next few years. Just take a look at some of the now well-known players taken in the 2011 MLB Draft:

Man, do I miss watching Jose on the bump. RIP.

Pick of the draft: Mookie Betts in the fifth round. Absolute steal.

Another pitcher taken in that draft not listed above is the Angels’ Nick Tropeano (160th overall in the fifth round by the Astros), who will get the start Monday night against the Royals. Let’s take a look at that matchup and the four other games on a very light card. We’ll start with the sole afternoon game — the first of a day-night doubleheader between the Yankees and Tigers. In the first game, the Yanks will pit one of the best starters in the game against Drew VerHagen, who will make his first start of 2018 after getting called up from the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens.

New York Yankees (-225) at Detroit Tigers (+201) | O/U: 8

The Yankees have won nine consecutive Severino starts. In those games, Severino owns an ERA of 1.95, going at least six innings in each. Over the past two seasons, the Yankees have a stellar 31-12 record when Severino takes the mound. However, he has netted bettors a profit of only 6.8 units during that span, due to an average moneyline of -152 in those 43 starts.

As the betting favorite, the Yankees have won 16 consecutive games with Severino starting. If you go back even further, they’ve won 21 of his last 22 starts, by an average of 3.7 runs per game.

The weather forecast calls for breezy conditions for both games of the Yankees-Tigers doubleheader, with winds projected at more than 10 mph. This season, the over is actually 1-7 at Comerica Park with winds at 10 mph or higher, but that hasn’t been the trend in previous seasons.

Between 2005 and 2017, the over in Detroit has gone 132-96-16 (57.9%) when the average wind speed is 10 mph or higher. Over bettors would have netted 32.3 units over that period, making Comerica the third-most profitable over stadium in this situation. During that span, overs hit more often at night (61.5% vs. 55.5%) with this trend. — Evan Abrams

New York Yankees (-200) at Detroit Tigers (+179) | O/U: 10

One doubleheader betting strategy involves wagering on the team that won Game 1 if it’s favored in the next game. Since 2005, that approach has gone 104-66 (61%) for a profit of +10.26 units. The return on investment looks even better if you isolate just road favorites: 38-18 (68%) for +12.96 units and a 23% ROI. If the Yankees win Game 1, they would fit the mold. — John Ewing

Fun Fact: The Yankees (37-17, .685) sit in first place in the AL East despite trailing the Red Sox (41-19, .683) by one game in the standings. The reason? They have a better win percentage. We haven’t seen a team with the best record in baseball sit in second place in its division since the Reds in 1967. — Stuckey

Kansas City Royals (+165) at LA Angels (-184) | O/U: 8.5

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