Regional energy modelling in Lombok

As part of the engagement between Denmark and Indonesia under the Strategic Sector Cooperation, the Danish Energy Agency and the National Energy Council chose Lombok as a pilot area to study how the expected increase in electricity demand can be met in a cost-efficient and sustainable way.

In collaboration with the Danish Energy Agency, Ea Energy Analyses prepared the publication ‘The Lombok Energy Outlook 2030’, which explored the potential evolution of the Lombok power system from a planning and techno-economical perspective, using least cost optimization across a number of different scenarios. The objective of the study was to assess what is the most cost-efficient development of the power system in Lombok, considering local resources available, the cost of technologies and fuel availability/price. Furthermore, the objective was to assess what would be the cost of increasing renewable energy deployment in Lombok.

To answer these questions, the economic optimization model Balmorel was applied for optimizing capacity expansion and merit order dispatch on a least cost basis. The representation of the Lombok power system in the model, including details about current generation fleet, resource potentials and technology costs and characteristics, was developed in close collaboration with PLN NTB and Dinas ESDM.

The results of the study showed how a large amount of renewable energy (58% penetration) can be integrated at almost no extra cost, while making the system more resilient to fuel price fluctuations. Removing fossil fuel subsidies and considering externalities of fossil power plants would be the only drivers needed to achieve this high renewable deployment.