A Bulletin of Socialist Economic Analysis published by Ken Livingstone
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Tuesday, 20 May 2014

It is the Tories who have a 30% strategy

By Michael Burke

Ed Miliband is accused
of having a ‘35% strategy’, meaning that he is banking on doing only just
enough to win an overall majority at the next general election. Polling models suggest
that 35% would be enough for Labour to achieve an overall majority in
Parliamentary seats. This is because the Tory vote is increasingly concentrated,
while Labour’s is far more widely spread geographically.

Since Labour’s electoral strategy has not been divulged to SEB, it is
idle to speculate on it, although this
has not prevented others from doing so. Instead, it is possible to
demonstrate that the Tory policy is based on an electoral strategy that is
focused on an even narrower section of the electorate. It is the Tories who have
a 30% electoral strategy.

The map below (which the present author first saw published by Ian Wright MP)
shows the cumulative effect in English constituencies of cuts under the
Coalition government during this parliament. The Tory Party is a fringe grouping
in Scotland and is headed in that direction in Wales. Despite repeated attempts
it has also failed to resurrect Conservative Unionism in Ireland.

Chart 1. Cumulative effect on change in spending power 2010/11 to 2015/16

The areas in beige have been barely affected by government cuts (although
these are averages, there will be many people living in those areas who are
badly affected by austerity). The areas in green have experienced no net cuts at
all.

By contrast, areas coloured in red have seen a fall in living standards of
between 15% and 20%. Those areas coloured deepest red have seen falls of greater
than 20% and take in all the large cities, including London.
The economic map almost precisely coincides with the electoral map of
Britain. The
Economist and others are keen to argue that this is a North-South divide in
British politics. To that end, they are obliged to perform some logical
contortions. In order to make the main divide in British politics North versus
South, The Economist excludes the Midlands from the North and excludes London
from the South!

The economic response of the Coalition government led by the Tories is to
protect and promote those Tory heartlands, as shown in Chart 1 above. SEBhas
previously shown how a minority of society, the owners of capital and the
rich, are benefitting from the ‘recovery’ in which most people’s living
standards continue to fall.

Perhaps the most flagrant policy in this regard is Osborne’s ‘Help to Buy
Scheme’. The entire policy of increasing demand for housing while doing nothing
to increase supply inevitably leads to higher prices. A number of commentators
and economists from the Right have attacked
the scheme as an absurd policy, designed solely to boost property prices
rather than housing availability. It is a ‘help to get re-elected’ scheme. The
resulting property price bubble is concentrated in London and the South-East,
and even here there is
growing resentment at the unaffordability of housing, not a feel-good
factor.

Politically and economically, the Tories are pursuing a core vote strategy.
This may not amount to much more than 30% at the next general election, and will
certainly be less than the 36.9% they received in 2010.
As a result, support for the LibDems has collapsed as this does not at all
coincide with the interests of their electoral base, higher-paid workers,
professional classes and small business owners.

Labour’s winning electoral strategy should be equally clear and substantially
broader. In terms of political geography it should embrace the democratic
demands for greater national rights within the British state, as well as finally
ending the British presence in Ireland. It needs to have a programme of economic
regeneration for the North and the big cities. It should adopt a very large
scale programme of council house building with London at its centre-piece.
Socially, it needs to be a champion of equality and democracy, tackling the huge
inequalities faced by women and tackling the endemic racism of British society,
which cannot be done while promising to be tough on immigration.

Above all now, it needs to reverse the policy of austerity which is lowering
the living standards of the overwhelming majority and will continue to do so.
The Tory policy, of government spending cuts and inducements to the private
sector to invest has not worked. A policy of government-led investment is
required, combined with other policies that will directly lift standards. The
Tory party is pursuing a narrow electoral strategy to shore up its support.
Labour can offer something better.