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VOTER 2004: THE LURE OF INDEPENDENTS

As the presidential race heats up, Republicans and Democrats are
again vying for the support of a crucial constituency: millions of
independent voters who belong to no political party. In the 2000
election, presidential candidates shaped their campaigns to appeal
to independents in the ideological center. â€œIt was the
compassionate conservatives versus the Clintonian
triangulators,â€? says John Zogby, president of Zogby
International, a polling firm in Utica, N.Y.

Independents will once again play an important role in this
year's presidential election, because the rest of the electorate is
so evenly split between the two main political parties. At the end
of February, presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry was running
neck and neck with President Bush in a country divided between more
conservative â€œred statesâ€? in the heartland and more
liberal â€œblue statesâ€? on both coasts.

Ironically, a Zogby poll conducted in mid-February exclusively
for American Demographics reveals that, like the broader
electorate, independent voters are also evenly divided: 31 percent
of them would choose Republican if they had to pick a party, 29
percent would pick Democrat and 21 percent weren't sure. The
ideological extremes are also represented: 6 percent of
independents would opt for the Libertarian Party and 7 percent
would choose the Green Party.

The bad news for conservatives is that a majority of
independents line up on the liberal-to-moderate side of the
ideological spectrum. Twenty-one percent of independents in the
Zogby poll described themselves as liberal or progressive, while 37
percent called themselves moderates. In contrast, 30 percent of
independents describe their politics as conservative, with only 4
percent calling themselves â€œvery conservativeâ€? or
libertarian.

Zogby asserts that the polls indicate independents are trending
more liberal in this election year as opposed to 2000. For example,
fully 70 percent of independents believe the federal government
should play a major role in protecting the environment, a
traditionally Democratic concern. â€œThe environment is a
Democratic ace in the hole this year,â€? Zogby says.

Meanwhile, 82 percent of independents want the federal
government to play a major role in protecting individual freedom,
suggesting a backlash against the Patriot Act and other attempts by
the Bush administration to change the traditional balance between
national security and individual liberty. Sixty-two percent feel
the government should help ensure that all citizens have economic
opportunities, while 60 percent want a dominant role by the federal
government in providing social programs to help the needy.

The liberal bias of independents contrasts sharply with the
other elections in which their vote has proved critical. In the
1980 election, blue-collar workers deserted Jimmy Carter and the
Democrats to vote Ronald Reagan into office. And in the 1990s, Bill
Clinton infuriated traditional liberals but won the presidency
twice by appealing to the socially moderate, fiscally conservative
instincts of suburban soccer moms. Third party candidates â€”
John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000
â€” attracted disaffected voters who saw no real difference
between Republicans and Democrats.

In 2000, the independent vote split evenly between the two
parties, although 20 percent of Green Party candidate Ralph Nader's
support came from independents, who might not have voted at all.
(The balance of Nader's supporters were left-wing Democrats who
spurned the cautiously centrist Al Gore.) As we know, Bush won the
presidency after the U.S. Supreme Court decided the deadlocked
Florida race in his favor. â€œIndependents were decisive in
creating the indecision,â€? Zogby says.

A liberal-to-moderate independent population seems like it would
benefit Kerry. But the current numbers pose a troubling question
for the Democratic Party: If so many independent voters side with
Democrats on the issues, then why aren't they Democrats? Zogby
points to lingering concerns left over from the Clinton era, when
numerous voters were put off by the scandals in Clinton's private
life, even while they enjoyed economic prosperity. â€œThe
Clinton years have had a negative impactâ€? on the Democratic
Party, he says.

Ethical issues seem most pronounced among younger independents.
Forty-three percent of those ages 18 to 24 say that a presidential
candidate's personal moral integrity is more important to them than
jobs. Older voters tend to be far more concerned about jobs and the
economy, with nearly half (48 percent) of 30- to 49-year-old
independents saying jobs are most important, while 33 percent of
those over 50, who are either closer to retiring or retired,
agree.

Overall, 38 percent of independents say jobs and the economy
will have the most influence over their vote for president.
Eighteen percent cite the candidate's personal integrity, 15
percent cite his position on health care, and 14 percent are most
concerned about national security.

There are striking regional differences on these issues,
however. Eastern independents are evenly divided between jobs and
the economy (23 percent) and health care (22 percent) as the most
important issues, while those elsewhere in the country are
overwhelmingly concerned about the economy (42 percent overall).
Almost 1 in 4 Southern independents (24 percent) says that a
candidate's moral integrity is most important to them, while 1 in 5
voters in Western states (21 percent) cites national security.

As one might expect, ideology also affects the independent
voter's attitudes. Nearly half (48 percent) of moderate
independents say jobs and the economy are the decisive issue this
election year. Forty-seven percent of liberals and a whopping 63
percent of progressives agree. On the other hand, conservative
independents are almost evenly split among jobs (23 percent),
national security (20 percent) and a candidate's personal integrity
(21 percent). And 45 percent who describe themselves as very
conservative are most concerned about integrity.

Most independents are white, according to the survey,
outnumbering Hispanics, the next largest group, by about 7-to- 1. A
plurality of white independents (32 percent) would choose the
Democrats if they had to pick a party, while 28 percent would
choose the Republicans. On the other hand, 59 percent of Hispanic
independents in the survey would choose the Republicans and none
would choose the Democrats. Very few African Americans describe
themselves as independent and every single one of them would choose
the Democratic Party if they had to choose. (The sample size of
minority independents is too small to draw meaningful conclusions,
however.)

Before Democrats break out the champagne, they should note that
just over 9 in 10 (91 percent) independents want the federal
government to play a major role in safeguarding the nation against
terrorists. This is hardly surprising, given that Osama bin Laden
and other Al Qaeda leaders are still at large, and that U.S. troops
in Afghanistan and Iraq are coming under almost daily attack. And
it's a tribute to the rhetorical, if not practical, success of
President Bush's â€œwar on terrorâ€? that voters register
much higher levels of concern about terrorist threats than about
national security, two ideas that would appear to be closely
related.

Voters have historically trusted the Republicans over the
Democrats on defense issues. On the other hand, they usually blame
the incumbent for everything that goes wrong on his watch. As of
February 24, 547 American troops had been killed and more than
3,000 had been wounded in Iraq. Around that time, Air Force Gen.
Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told
reporters that he didn't know how long U.S. troops would remain in
Iraq. The Bush administration must also contend with the fact that
no weapons of mass destruction are expected to be found in Iraq and
that Bush's military service during the Vietnam war has come under
renewed scrutiny.

Still, Zogby argues that another terrorist attack might again
rally the American public around Bush. After Sept. 11, his approval
ratings skyrocketed to 90 percent. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup
poll in early February found that his approval rating had fallen to
52 percent. â€œIt could be played as don't change the captain
in midstream,â€? Zogby says. (The captain himself made this
point in his January 20 State of the Union address, when he pledged
not to â€œfalter and leave our work unfinished.â€?)

But based on recent polls, Zogby maintains that economic
security is uppermost in the minds of independent voters this year.
â€œJobs are paramount,â€? he says. â€œIt's not quite
1932, but people want the government to do something
now.â€?