Dothan Area Weather Forecast Jul 20

The high-resolution model guidance appears to have been reasonably accurate in depicting an increase in convective coverage and rain rates around 06-08 UTC. The showers that have developed so far appear to be dominated by warm rain processes - low-toppedconvection that is very efficient in producing rainfall. The TLHairport recorded around one half inch of rain in just under a halfhour with one of these showers.

The HRRR and preponderance of CAM guidance shows a general 1-2" of rain on average can be expected through mid-afternoon over most of our Florida zones (where the heaviest rain is most likely). However, the vast majority of those models also show localized amounts in the 7-9" range, which would likely be sufficient to cause localized flash flooding. Because of this, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch in effect until 23 UTC for all of our Florida zones.

PoPs were adjusted to show 60-80% values this morning across ourFlorida zones, with "likely" PoPs (60-70%) spreading north into ourAlabama and Georgia zones later this morning and afternoon. Theabundance of rain and cloud cover will likely once again restrictthe diurnal temperature range, so high temperatures were kept coolerthan normal values, and similar to the inherited forecast. Indications are that convective coverage will diminish between 21 and 03 UTC, with a lull Saturday evening.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

While at this time yesterday it had appeared that there would besome legitimate hope that a brief period of upper level ridgingcould push far enough northward in the Gulf of Mexico to at leastgive our region a brief break in the unsettled weather, eachconsecutive run of the ECMWF continues to squash that little bit ofhope.

If the Upper ridge stays weak and in the Central Gulf of Mexico, the probability of conditions that are wetter and cooler than climo will increase, and for those looking for a break in the persistent Upper trough (and accompanying sunnier and drier conditions) may have to wait until next summer.

LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...

The GFS and ECMWF forecast a 500mb trough to develop over theSoutheast over the upcoming work week. It`s difficult to forecastspecifics in such patterns as there will undoubtedly be minor shortwaves rotating through this broader trough, which can help triggerperiods of active deep moist convection (sometimes even overnight).

The best approach is to "broad brush" above-average rain chances(generally 50-60% each day, and 20-30% each night) across theregion, which is near the GFS-ECMWF MOS PoP blend.

Temperatures will be near average, with highs in the lower to mid 90s (inland) and lows in the 70s.

AVIATION [through 12 UTC Sunday]...

Some IFR-MVFR CIGS could develop at our three northern terminals(DHN, ABY, VLD) out ahead of the rain showers that are developingnear the Gulf. These will likely diminish as the rain advances norththis morning.

Meanwhile, MVFR-VFR should prevail at TLH and ECP, with tropical rain showers having the potential to reduce visibility at times to IFR.

These tropical rain showers will spread inland during the day, with the potential to eventually affect the remaining terminals (ABY, DHN, VLD).

Rain will diminish by 21-03 UTC with VFR through the evening.

MARINE...

Moderate onshore winds today have created slightly higher seas thanexpected, so did bump up seas about 1 foot across the board fortoday.

Winds and seas will diminish a bit back to more typical summertime levels on Sunday and Monday, before becoming moderate again out of the west by mid week, as the surface pressure pattern increases slightly.

FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

HYDROLOGY...

Numerous tropical rain showers and rain bands are beginning todevelop early this morning in a very moist environment. The humidair mass is due to a large plume of tropical moisture.

A variety of model guidance shows a general inch of rainfall averaged across all of the Florida panhandle and big bend. However, there are also indications that localized amounts could be well in excess of that.

Small heavy rain bands are not uncommon in a tropical environmentsuch as this, and they can lead to localized flash flooding.

The rain should begin to decrease in coverage closer to sunset.

Impacts on area rivers are difficult to pinpoint at this time, but certainlyareas near Bruce, Lamont, and Newport in Florida should be on alertfor potential rises back to Flood Stage.

Online Public Information File

Viewers with disabilities can get assistance accessing this station's FCC Public Inspection File by contacting the station with the information listed below. Questions or concerns relating to the accessibility of the FCC's online public file system should be directed to the FCC at 888-225-5322, 888-835-5322 (TTY), or fccinfo@fcc.gov.