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This Brief demonstrates how a ‘pivot’ to conflict prevention in foreign assistance to Mozambique is needed, adjusting international donors’ support towards more targeted conflict-prevention objectives, and balancing the need for conflict sensitivity with the imperative of effective relief and recovery interventions in the areas hit by the cyclone. But it is important to realise that the ‘prevention window’ will not remain open indefinitely, and timely action is therefore of the essence.

This Brief launches a new EUISS series on conflicts, by focusing on the renewed attention to prevention in international peacebuilding at a time when the human and economic costs of violent conflict keep rising.

This Brief is the first of a triptych on the ways the international community has responded to the new developments to preserve and strengthen the norm against CW use. It first offers a short historical overview of chemical warfare, followed by a review of resurgent use of toxic agents. It next introduces the CWC. A discussion of the challenges the new-found utility of such agents pose to the convention concludes the Brief.

How can SSR assistance lead to effective and sustainable reforms, and ultimately contribute to reduce fragility, conflict and violence? This Brief seeks to answer these questions by analysing the introduction and implementation of the security sector public expenditure review (PER), a public sector governance instrument that assesses the efficiency and financial sustainability of governments’ security and defence allocations, including SSR programmes.

This Brief examines how reflecting on past predictions and assessing how accurate – or not – they proved to be helps to improve foresight capacities. It also shows that mistakes in foresight are not necessarily negative, as long as they are examined to evaluate the reasons why they came about.

The third in the EUISS connectivity series, this Brief focuses on China’s Polar Silk Road project, which officially incorporates the Arctic Ocean into Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, and examines what it reveals about China’s broader geopolitical ambitions in the region.

Strategic autonomy. Two familiar words that are yet again in vogue in Europe but which cause confusion and, in some quarters, even alarm. This Brief compares the range of defence initiatives that have been developed by the EU since 2016 against three different conceptual visions of strategic autonomy: autonomy as responsibility, autonomy as hedging and autonomy as emancipation.

Russia’s political system appears strong and durable at first glance. However, on closer inspection, several factors are gradually undercutting Putin's standing, a process which, in turn, is likely to have future knock-on effects for Russia’s entire political edifice. What vulnerabilities does President Putin face in his fourth term in office? What are the drivers behind them? And how might these play out in the future?

This Brief seeks to advance the discussion about AI and security and defence within an EU context, and also to offer policymakers a few analytical pointers that may be useful when dealing with defence and AI.

The civilian dimension of the EU’s CSDP has traditionally played a Cinderella-like role in the EU crisis management system. And like the original fairy tale, it seems that civilian CSDP will need three essential elements to succeed: (1) a renewed and credible strategic framework – the ‘ball gown’; (2) adequate operational capabilities – the ‘pumpkin carriage’; and (3) a solid commitment by relevant stakeholders – the ‘Prince Charming’.