..If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic...

Strategies for pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination of schoolchildren in the United States

Nicole E BastaDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USAAm J Epidemiol 170:679-86. 2009

..Given the current worldwide threat of novel influenza A (H1N1), with an estimated R of 1.4-1.6, health officials should consider strategies for vaccinating children against novel influenza A (H1N1) as well as seasonal influenza...

Planning for the control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Los Angeles County and the United States

..Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development...

Population level impact of an imperfect prophylactic vaccine for herpes simplex virus-2

Nicole E BastaDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USAAm J Epidemiol 168:1343-52. 2008

..VE(I) estimates were particularly low for these influenza vaccines. VE(SP) and VE(C) can remain high for both vaccines, even when VE(I) is relatively low, as long as the other 2 measures of vaccine efficacy are relatively high...

..To estimate the role of each of the HIV progression stages in fueling HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa by using the recent measurements of HIV transmission probability per coital per HIV stage in the Rakai study...

Quantitative assessment of the role of male circumcision in HIV epidemiology at the population level

..We also found significant therapeutic efficacies in reducing pathogenicity and the risk of infection with disease but no therapeutic efficacy in reducing the risk of viral infection in the contacts...

Optimal vaccine allocation for the early mitigation of pandemic influenza

Laura MatrajtDepartment of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of AmericaPLoS Comput Biol 9:e1002964. 2013

..We show that it is possible to significantly mitigate a more global epidemic with limited quantities of vaccine, provided that the vaccination campaign is extremely fast and it occurs within the first weeks of transmission...

School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreaks in the United States

..We use the hybrid EM-MCEM algorithm to analyze two influenza epidemics in the late 1970s to assess the effects of age and preseason antibody levels on the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the viruses...