Saturday, April 11, 2009

Royals Today: 4/11/2009

First off, thanks to the efforts of WHB’s Blake Uhlenhake, the series premiere of Rany on the Radio is now available in podcast form: go here, and scroll down to the bottom to where you find a link to “Rany on Royals 4-9-09”. Hopefully future podcasts will be available within 24 hours of the show’s end. I thought the first show went very well; I particularly liked the part where I called Rob an ignorant slut*. Many thanks to caller Oscar for his insightful question, and I hope that more of you will call in during future episodes. Next week’s episode also airs on Thursday at 7 pm, and we should be in that time slot through May 7th. (We’ll air on Monday May 11th instead of Thursday May 14th because the Royals will be playing a night game that Thursday.)

*: May or may not have actually happened.

So we’re one trip through the rotation, which is the perfect time to form wildly premature opinions on the Royals so far. Here’s a special Small Sample Size Edition of Short Attention Span Theatre:

- By far the best development of the season’s first five games is Kyle Davies’ performance on Thursday. Seven shutout innings, eight strikeouts, a Game Score of 77 which was not only the third-best of his career, but one of the ten best Game Scores by a Royal since 2005. You don’t want to read too much off of just one start – Brett Tomko had a Game Score of 78 in one of his starts last year – but coming off of his September last year, you factor in his performance, his stuff, his age, his pedigree…this looks for all the world like a talented thrower putting it all together and becoming a pitcher. Remember, the Royals got Davies (who won’t be a free agent until after 2011) in exchange for eight innings of Octavio Dotel. Dayton Moore has done a lot of maddening things as a GM – we’ll get to some of that – but a move like Dotel-for-Davies has the potential to make up for all of those things by itself. Keep in mind, a lot of us wanted Moore to trade Dotel for the Mariners’ Wladimir Balentien (assuming that offer was in fact on the table). Balentien still has a lot of potential, but at this moment I suspect almost all of us are glad we have Davies instead.

- Davies’ performance merely capped off an insanely good performance from the three starters that we’re actually counting on for good performances this season. Meche, Greinke, and Davies combined to allow one run and strike out 21 in 20 innings in their first start. As Bradford Doolittle pointed out, the combined Game Score of the first three starts (212) was better than the best three-game span (211, May 3-5) last season. In fact, the last time the Royals had three consecutive starts that combined for a higher Game Score (218) was August 4-6, 2004, when Brian Anderson threw a two-hit shutout to start things off, Greinke went seven innings allowing three hits and a single run the next night, and Darrell May threw seven strong innings, allowing six hits and three runs in the finale. So the Royals started 2009 with the best three-game stretch by their starters in nearly five years.

- I’m not going to tell you what the worst development of the young season is, but here’s a hint: it has scored eight runs in five games. There’s not much to analyze, really. The Royals aren’t hitting for average (.198). They’re not hitting for power (two homers in five games). They’re not commanding the strike zone at all (10 walks, 48 strikeouts). Of the nine guys in the Opening Day lineup, the only one hitting over .240 is Mark Teahen; the only one slugging over .360 is Coco Crisp. Yes, it’s early. The air is a lot colder and heavier than it was in Arizona, and I’m sure they’re still getting used to it. They’ve faced some of the best starters in the American League every time out; the worst starter they’ve seen is arguably the guy they saw on Opening Day, Mark Buehrle. But all these excuses are going to wear awfully thin awfully fast if they don’t put up a three-spot somewhere.

- Put it this way: the Royals haven’t scored three runs in a game yet. Through Saturday, every other team in baseball (except for Houston) had scored at least three runs in an inning.

- If you’re looking for me to say something snarky about Sidney Ponson, I’m afraid I’m going to have to disappoint you. The end result (four runs in six innings) wasn’t good, but in light of the opponent in front of him and the defense behind him, it wasn’t half-bad either. I was able to watch him from the second through the fourth innings, and his ability to move his fastball to both sides of the plate was impressive. If he continues to throw like that, the results will come. But I never had an issue with Ponson in the rotation – my issue was with Hochevar not being in the rotation. We can win with Ponson as our #5 starter. We can’t win if he’s our #4 starter, especially if our #5 starter is…

- Horacio Ramirez, and if you’re looking for me to say something snarky about him, I might disappoint you, but only because it’s shooting fish in a barrel. This is the side of Dayton Moore that just baffles me. How do you give this guy nearly $2 million to be in your rotation when 1) he hasn’t pitched remotely well in anyone’s rotation since 2006, and 2) no one else wanted him in their rotation at all, let alone was willing to fork over seven figures for the privilege? There are many, many aspects to being a GM that I would positively suck at, but if the Royals ever advertise for the position of Assistant GM: Common Sense, I’m definitely throwing my hat in the ring. Even Hillman’s brain fart with Kyle Farnsworth only cost us one game – Moore’s signing of Ramirez has the potential to be a hemorrhoid on the Royals all season. The good news is that in Hochevar’s first start (which came in the thin air of Albuquerque), he gave up two runs - one earned - in five innings. Ramirez won’t be needed as a starter again until the 25th; let’s hope that by then Hochevar has answered whatever questions the Royals had about him, and Ramirez goes back to the lefty reliever role that Bob McClure had him thriving in last summer.

- Speaking of Kyle Farnsworth, I was a bit surprised that he got booed as loudly as he was when he was introduced before the home opener. I guess our patience has been tried a few too many times over the years. He went on to strike out the side in his one inning of work, and afterwards credited the difference to a mechanical change. McClure way well be able to work a miracle with him; Farnsworth did have a 2.19 ERA in 70 innings in 2005. But I think I speak for all Royals fans when I say we’d like to see him prove he’s a changed man – let’s say he doesn’t give up another homer between now and mid-May – before we’d entrust him with another eighth-inning lead.

- Jose Guillen’s hip injury came at an awfully opportune time, don’t you think? For all the talk about how the Royals wanted to give him two weeks off to make sure he doesn’t aggravate his injury in the cold weather, one aspect of the decision to DL him that I haven’t seen talked about is this: by putting Guillen on the DL before 3 o’clock on Friday, the Royals were able to give Brayan Pena a reprieve for at least the next 15 days. Pena was almost certainly the guy to get demoted when Ponson was activated, and even if he had cleared waivers, Pena had the option to decline the assignment to Omaha and declare free agency. It’s hard to think that he wouldn’t, given that the Royals already have two catchers they can’t find enough playing time for. Pena is an interesting player, and it’s easy to understand why the Royals would want to keep him around.

- Of course, keeping Pena around is pointless if you’re not going to, you know, take advantage of his presence. And on that note, Hillman’s lineups the last two days leave something to be desired. The Royals have faced southpaws in their last two games, and while they certainly missed Guillen’s bat, they could have gone a long way towards replacing it by finding lineup spots for both Miguel Olivo and John Buck – something Hillman had no qualms about doing last year even with no third catcher on the roster. Instead, Hillman insisted on starting Jacobs against two of the better lefties in baseball. Jacobs went 2-for-6 against Pettitte and Sabathia, but one of the two hits was a gift double that Nick Swisher lost in the sun.

- Hillman’s decision to keep Jacobs in the lineup pales to his weird second base/right field shenanigans. On Friday he moved Teahen out to right field and played Callaspo at second base. The temptation to move Teahen back to his natural position in Guillen’s absence is understandable: it definitely helps the defense in the short term. The question is whether it hurts Teahen’s chances to get used to his new position in the long term; so long as they continue to work with him – and so long as they plan to move him back once Guillen returns – I think this is a trade-off worth making. But today, Teahen had the day off (at least until Gordon’s hip problem forced Teahen to move to yet another position), and Hillman decided to play Callaspo at second base and the Spork in right field. Setting aside the calamity that is having Bloomquist in the starting lineup, I don’t understand why Hillman wouldn’t reverse the two. Callaspo may not be the world’s greatest outfielder, but then neither is Bloomquist, so why not at least make sure that your best second baseman is playing second base, especially with a groundball pitcher on the mound?

- Let’s take a deep breath. The Royals may have only eight runs in five games, but they’re still 2-3, and the division is shaping up to be every bit as mediocre as we thought it would be. The Indians, who were the popular favorite to win the division, are 0-5; reigning Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee has been hit hard twice, and third starter (!) Carl Pavano gave up nine runs in an inning-plus. The Royals are half a game out of first. There is no reason to panic.

- Alex Gordon and Billy Butler have combined to go 3-for-32, with two walks and 11 strikeouts. It goes without saying, but bears repeating: if they – and the rest of the lineup – don’t get it together soon, then we might have reason to panic.

45 comments:

I wouldn't be putting anything on Seitzer at all yet. The end results aren't there to this point, of course, but you can see the ground's been laid; with the exception of (a) the guys who aren't going to start showing selectivity anyway no matter who the hitting coach is and (b) Billy Butler (?!), everyone else is at least showing a better approach up there. Heck, even Jacobs has been seeing what seems, at least, to be more pitches per PA than I would expect given his career OBP.

I think it also behooves us to remember that while the actual runs-across-the-plate number is anemic, a lot of that is just dumb bad luck. The rubber match of the Chicago series, the Royals were blistering the ball all over the place -- just happened to be blistering it right at people. Teahen's been smoking balls -- at people. Coco's been hitting the ball hard. Butler, despite looking mostly lost so far, still got robbed a couple of times by Josh Fields. It's frustrating as hell when this sort of luck all falls in one clump, but it is what it is.

Rany, it has never been as iconic as Harvey taking it in the back or Ambres letting it fall behind him, but you MUST get Lefebvre's call from the game where MacDougal air-mailed a throw to the plate--I believe he called it "The worst thing that has ever happened in sports." Hilarity. Painful, painful hilarity.

Is there a right hand-hitting free agent out there? Friday's 3-4-5 combination of DeJesus, Jacobs, Gordon showed as clearly as possible the need for a competent righty in the middle of the lineup, absent Guillen. You're not going to face Buehrle, Danks, Pettite, and Sabathia every week, but how is this weekend's lineup ever going to do any damage against lefties?

I agree that we need some patience; that said, however, I can remember at LEAST ten years of consoling ourselves with lines like, "their pitcher was just really good---it'll get better." We ALWAYS seem to say the other teams have really good pitchers, so our offense is excused. Maybe we'll someday notice that other teams' offenses don't seem so intimidated by all those "really good" pitchers (Sabathia excepted).

I don't know if such a statistic is kept, but it seems like the Royals' hitters must lead the league in checked swings. Wouldn't it be better if they went ahead and just took a good whack at the ball, instead of trying to check their swings all the time?

Agreed that the defensive moves have been perplexing. It feels like Trey is treating the first week of the season like it's an extended Spring Training, the way he's moving everyone around and getting everybody starts at different positions in the field- and the line up.

it's also tough to ignore the fact that willie bloomquist was truly awful last night in right field.

If anything today's performance from Buck and B. Pena make the Olivo signing that much more perplexing. Is it too early to start calling for Buck to be the regular catcher again? Was I the only one thinking Olivo was secretly pissed at Buck's day when the showed him sitting in the bullpen?

Think about this. With Gordon out, we have 3 catchers, 2 backup IFs, and 2 OFs. We don't even have a 3rd OF. Yet, TPJ remains on the team and Maier is in Omaha.

When Gordon comes back, we will still have a week without Gordon. Playing Teahen at second and Bloomquist in the OF makes zero sense. If you stick Callaspo at second and Teahen in RF, you not only get better hitting but you get better fielding as well. When you have both better hitting and better fielding, I'm not quite sure what the decision is that needs to be made.

It's decisions like this that frustrate me as much as anything. That and mental errors in the field. I sure would love to know why Hillman and DM make these decisions when they are against what everyone else (and I mean everyone) thinks differently. It was quite obvious that Farnsworth was the wrong choice and all of us knew that before it happened but for some reason Hillman didn't.

Finally, the thought process that is behind putting HoRam in the rotation is baffling. I understand the desire to have a lefty in the rotation, but if that lefty is Scott Elarton compared to the righty that would replace him, why do they still think that the idea of a lefty in the roation is the best idea? Stick my grandma out there. She's a lefty and she wouldn't cost $2mil. I've already had her agree to a tentative $450,000 contract if the Royals will agree.

Yes, I know we nearly doubled our run total on the year today, but our offense is still awful. Coming into today, we were the worst in the majors at batting average (under .200), walks (10), and runs scored (8). The next best team doubles our run output. And the Dodgers, the best walking team in the league, take FIVE free passes a game so far. Wow. We're the only team in the league that is under .300 in both OBP and SLG%. Oh, by the way, we strikeout more than all but two teams. Our offense flat out stinks right now.

As bad as the offense has been, the pitching has been equally good. 2nd best in both ERA (3.07)and AVG against (.214). Best in the AL for both. We're top 5 in strikeouts and walks allowed. Those numbers also translate to the lowest OBP and fewest baserunners per nine in the majors. (and the fewest long balls in the league)

So, thank you pitching. And thank you, offense *heavy sarcasm added*. But why can't we just put the two together for once? And how long can we actually count on the pitching to hold it together with little to no run support? Today's game was a through-the-legs, Bill Buckner, seeing-eye, broken bat, double error slap from Callaspo with two on in the fourth away from being swept. Not to mention getting some timely hitting in the eighth. So, maybe we chalk this one up to the offense picking up the pitching. A good sign of better times to come? Maybe.

(Side note: A 12-year-old could manage this team better than Hillman. When your ace is throwing lights out and only has 91 pitches in the 7th, don't take him out (ala opening day). And a week later, when the same guys needs 25 to get through the first, then starts to implode in the 7th, take him out before he gives up three runs. And can we see the lineup stay the same for two freakin' days in a row, please? Is that so hard? And let's not even talk about who plays where on the field.

All that being said. I'll take a 3-3 start. I think April will lay the groundwork as a microcosm of our season. If we can somehow at least stay flirting with .500 (say, within 3 games) come May 1st, we might be okay. But if we're 5 under .500 and 7 games out by the end of the month, then it will be a miracle if we win 70 games.

The decision to have Horacio Ramirez in the rotation reminds me of when I was watching a Cardinals-Brewers game a few years back. The announcer brought up the fact that the Brewers didn't have any lefties in the bullpen. The color man said that when he asked Ned Yost he responded that he'd rather have the best pitchers available in the bullpen and not have crappy lefty just to have one. Obviously the bullpen is a little different, as there's always need for a situational lefty in my opinion. But I think it is stupid thinking to put a lefty in the rotation just so you can have one. Put the best pitchers out there who give you the best chance to win.

There is no reason Tony Pena is on this team when we could have an offensive upgrade like Shealy or Maier up here. Either one of those guys would solve the problem of having Bloomquist in the outfield. Maier obviously could play right but Teahen could also move out there with Shealy playing first.

I can't remember a player with a more signature pitch than Soria's "Bugs Bunny curve." I don't think enough emphasis how incredible this is. Joe Pa's article does a good job and will be far more eloquent than I.

I can just picture John Buck sitting there like Tom Berenger in "Major League."

lol, I can't believe how bad Hillman really is. After the inning Farnsworth has he brings in Mahay, which I'm not even that upset about, but you bring him in to face two switch hitters and then PULL him after they get on base, only to bring in Soria to face two LEFTIES. This is borderline insane, the games not even over but we've seen about all we need to see out of Hillman.

You'd rather have Mahay in the game than Soria at that point? Mahay's career splits are nothing to write home about, and as he'd already allowed two baserunners, leaving him in would just be stubbornness. Hillman made the right call.

i think the "issue" (not just with Hillman but with managers in general), is everytime you go to the 'pen, you have little idea how the new pitcher will be that day, but you have a better idea how the pitcher currently in the game is throwing that day. this idea that, well, my reliever got a 1-2-3 inning, so let's take him out immediately! wouldn't want to shake his confidence by asking him to face another batter after such success! that's what tends to irk me, regardless of the next guy's performance.

Even after Soria's first 2 pitches where lined into right field I wasn't worried. When the wild pitch came, I have to admit, I thought it was going to be one of those games and we were screwed. It's nice to have a closer that even on an off night, if you can call it off after the way he made the 3,4,5 hitters look ridiculous, we can still pull out the victory. Let's hope Davies continues the momentum and Gordon is rested and ready to rake.

I was reading a report the other day and I think it was about the Cubs, and that Gregg the closer has a knee that stiffens up fairly easily, and so he performed a whole lot better when he got warmed up, came immediately into a game, and then didn't pitch or even loosen up in multiple innings. And so he is going to be the ninth inning guy, and they will use Marmol in the leverage situations late and with the greater flexibility.

Which is neither here nor there as it concerns the Royals, except there could be a similar dynamic working there with Farnsworth - Hillman has used Cruz for two innings in a high leverage situation back in Greinke's first start.

So yes, Farny was dynamic last night in going 1-2-3. But if he has the same kind of issue, it may well have been best to go a different direction to start the ninth. I don't know those kinds of things. I assume the actual manager knows better than I do, and so this is one call I don't second guess.

And I totally agree that it was time to go to Soria when he came in. I wish it had gone a little smoother, but the one thing we all knew is that he would keep his wits about him. And after struggling while in there - two hits and a wild pitch is a virtual shelling - the curve ball he broke off to end the game on a 3-2 count was ridiculous. Maybe his best pitch of the season.

I'm guessing that anonymous is unaware of Soria's reverse platoon splits, as he's slightly better versus lefties than righties. Both of the lefties did get hits off of Soria, but strategically, the move was correct. Soria is better versus lefties, and he's our best reliever overall.

We can definitely discuss whether Farnsworth should have been taken out. But once Mahay put the two leadoff men on, it was unquetionably the right decision to go to our best reliever. Hillman made a good decision going to Soria in that situation last night.

never pays to be a big league manager. Never right, even with a win. I like Hillman, think he will continue his development into one of the better Royals' managers, although I will agree the competition has not been too stiff lately. The weather we've had is certainly not baseball friendly (both teams have it of course) but we've gotten 4 wins, 3 of them in our division - with almost no runs. Can't c/o the pitching staff too loudly. McClure's work has proven solid over time, and I trust the managers to know who throws how many pitches, etc. I was delighted Soria came in, even though the wild pitch had be talking to the TV.... Billy Butler saves a run with his defense -- who'da thunk it? I'm just delighted to have some depth in the organization to have position players and pitchers that deserve a shot, rather than be rushed to the big leagues because we're out of other options. Chemistry in the club house sounds good -- we fans should try and join the spirit.... Rany, good columns as usual. Must not be up to much with the new addition...

I hate that Trey Hillman keeps moving Teahan around. I know that we've got injuries, but surely when we planned this season and factored Teahan in as our everyday starter at second, we had somebody in mind for a utility infielder/outfielder to cover for Gordon/Guillen. If not, that poor management of the roster.

Also, I hated the booing of Farnsworth AND Ponson on opening day. Yes, Farnsworth blew the game the other night, and I hate him at least a little for that, and I question whether or not he was ever a good sign, but I'm not ready to start booing my own team after one inning of bad work. The last Royal I booed was Graeme Lloyd, and that man deserved every bit that he got.

As far as booing Sidney Ponson, I was appalled by that. I found myself cheering for him, not because I like the guy, but merely to counter all the boos he was getting. There's no reason to boo your starter at the home openener---he hadn't pitched an inning yet as a Royal!

I want to win as much as anybody else in Kansas City, but I also don't want to become Philadelphia, where Santa has to hide from sports venues.

I'm with you, Shelby: Gordon is a bust. In fact, I started saying it around the All-Star break last year. Yes, he had a good second half but one half is not a whole season. Plus, really, when you're that bad the first half you can only get better, right?

I hope I'm wrong, I hope Gordon is just starting to figure it out and will come on strong once the weather heats up, but he was supposed to be the left-handed version of Evan Longoria - those guys aren't supposed to need to figure it out; they're just supposed to step in the box and rake from Day One.

Final thought on Gordon: He reminds me of the sister in "A League of Their Own", the one that can't hit the high fast ball but also can't lay off them. Just pitch him low and outside; same thing - he can't hit them, and he can't lay off them. Hell, he can't even foul them off.

I totally agree with John-Paul about the booing. Making Ponson our 4th starter might have been a dumb move, but he certainly doesn't deserve to be booed for it, especially by his hometown on opening day before he's even thrown a pitch. That was classless behavior, and I hope the cheers drowned out the boos.

I think the booing of Ponson was more about booing his signing and addition to the rotation. I guess those people could have booed the offices like protesters booing the Clintons the night before W's first term started.

I agree Dave. Gordon looked like dog crap against a bad righty. That's not good. And I don't see how anyone could blame the hip or whatever -- a sore hip doesn't affect a man's pitch recognition - something that Gordon simply doesn't have. His last at-bat he struck out on 3 straight pitches. They're just hammering him with inside fastballs, which he can't turn on and hit, and then offspeed stuff away. He's a sucker - doesn't have a clue up there. For the first time, I'm considering the possibility that it's just never going to happen for him, which really, really sucks. Longoria, Braun, Zimmerman - they all just stepped in and had "it". If "it" was an absolutely clueless approach, then Gordon would have "it" too. I'm sick of hearing about the pressure that's on him, too. Pressure is making $50K a year with a wife and kids to support and knowing that if you suck at your job you will lose it, not get paid, and face losing your car, your home, and your life in general if you don't find another job real quick. Pressure is not a guaranteed $4 mil signing bonus and a guaranteed major league contract.

Right now, Gordon is a liability in the lineup. Just pitiful. They should just send him down to AAA, but my guess is that he'll get DL'd with a phantom injury so he can save face and try to figure it out.

I'm not sure, but I'm thinking pressure isn't limited to money issues. Money changes things, including pressure. People that have none think that it will ease a lot of the pressure they feel. It doesn't. It changes the pressure. And I would consider the hopes of millions of people to be pressure. I would consider competitive drive pressure. I would consider being compared to a HoF player, the best player in the organization's 40 year history BAR NONE to be pressure.

And 50k? Are you kidding? That's a very good living and well above average in this country.

Can we cut Farnsworthless already? Or at least get Trey Hillman a shock collar that goes off if he get Farnsworth up in the pen in a game closer than four runs either way? I'd rather see Doug Waechter on the hill in a tie game.