The Draft Decider: QBs

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When it comes to ranking quarterbacks going into the 2014 fantasy football season, it doesn’t take an “expert consensus” to know which Holy Trinity stands out above the rest. In some order, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will go 1-2-3 off the board in every reasonably sane league.

After them, however, it gets a lot more interesting. As if just figuring out the No. 4 quarterback wasn’t hard enough, when you start digging deeper, you will need to sort out a slew of sleepers. In the first of four special positional preseason editions of The Decider, we’re here to help you figure out the toughest QB decisions in your upcoming draft.

We start with a pair of unkempt Texas gunslingers who wear No 9. They also are both loaded with weapons in two of the league’s most diverse attacks. The Lions gave Stafford a pair of efficiency experts in coach Jim Caldwell and coordinator Joe Lombardi. They also gave him a pair of complementary targets to Calvin Johson in Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. We also like getting Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick as dangerous tertiary targets.

For Chip Kelly and the Eagles, Foles loses DeSean Jackson but gains Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews, a healthy Jeremy Maclin and a readier Zach Ertz. The Lions can’t and won’t run as well as the top-rushing Eagles, and as the lesser team, they’ll catch themselves trailing with a few more shootouts.

The Decision: Both Stafford and Foles can put up huge numbers, but Stafford gets the slight edge because he’ll have higher volume.

These guys will also be attached in reality forever as the slam-dunk 1-2 picks in the 2012 NFL draft, and that’s no different in this year’s fantasy draft. We should expect a lot more scoring from Luck’s Colts and Griffin’s Redskins, as the teams each added a coveted free-agent wide receiver (Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson) without losing one.

Luck already was No. 4 in QB scoring last season. The Redskins don’t plan to let RG3 run as wild under Jay Gruden, and they can run it (and in) better with Alfred Morris than Indy can expect to do so with Trent Richardson. Luck, with his size, is actually a better rushing TD threat, and he can complement his deep shots better with more efficient underneath passing than RG3.

The Decision: Luck is a safer bet to crack the top five this year. Griffin, however, is still in for a huge jump back up the charts.

Newton’s Panthers and Ryan’s Falcons don’t like each other, but we’ve got to like one of these quarterbacks over the other. We’re happy Ryan will have Julio Jones and Roddy White back to their healthy selves, but we also know Levine Toilolo isn’t Tony Gonzalez, and Steven Jackson is no longer the receiving Steven Jackson.

There have been enough jokes made about Newton’s wide receivers, but the reality is his legs have let him produce well before with uninspiring targets, and with Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Jerricho Cotchery, there’s juicy red zone passing pop to go with ground yardage and scoring potential.

The Decision: While some wait-on-a-QB owners might think they’re sneaky going for the Ryan rebound, the wiser ones will take advantage of Newton’s perceived falling stock. Newton’s drop from No. 3 won’t be passed by Ryan’s rise from No. 15.

Brady idolized Joe Montana, and Kaepernick wants to channel Montana by bringing Super Bowl success back to San Francisco. Both are coming off disappointing fantasy seasons for different reasons. With Brady, there was some sign of age, and it didn’t help he had to adjust to a less explosive arsenal. Kaepernick went through his version of "a sophomore slump" without his favorite wideout (Michael Crabtree) healthy for most of the season.

Even with Rob Gronkwoski healthy, however, Kaepernick can match him in overall quality of targets (Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis) and the Niners have hinted at letting him gunsling a little more.

The Decision: Let’s remember Kaepernick still needs to play well to earn the incentives in his big contract, and the bonus rushing production (in relation to Brady’s near zero) puts Kap on top here. A similar separation in scoring from 2013 (No. 9 vs. No. 12) remains.

So much in common, so little time. In short, they’re polarizing thirty-something chuckers in pass-friendly offenses who make us nervous because of their recent health issues. Really, Romo has been the more durable one -- and more predictable.

As we’ll see more of the same Bears dealing in Marc Trestman’s offense, the Cowboys are raising the passing quotient in Scott Linehan’s offense. Chicago has the best wideout duo combo in the league, but Dallas is bit deeper and more versatile overall to go with the ridiculous volume.

We tied these two because of their N.C. State connection, but there’s obviously much separation in terms of style and athleticism. The Seahawks are still a running team first, and they’ll expand with more of a committee-style approach. Wilson has run just a modest amount for how good of a runner he is, and his game is more about getting the ball downfield. Having a healthy Percy Harvin instead of the departed Tate is more of a wash with their mentality.

Rivers shocked by finishing No. 5 in QB scoring last season, and he’s in an pass-friendlier offense, getting a key healthy weapon back (Malcom Floyd) and having a superstar tight end in waiting (Ladarius Green). Don’t get caught up with Wilson’s rushing trumping Rivers’ revival.

The Decision: It wasn’t a one-year fluke for Rivers under Mike McCoy, and we should expect the numbers to stay steady --and better than Wilson's -- even if a few more passers push Rivers down the QB list.

Big Ben and the Red Rifle both have alliterative nicknames and play in the defensively brutal AFC North. If you didn’t pay attention, Dalton finished No. 7 in QB scoring, and now he has an established pair of stud wideouts in A.J. Green and Marvin Jones. He may not get to 30 TDs again, but new Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson’s focus on run setting up pass should help him cut down on that ugly giveaway total (23). Other than five fewer TDs (28 to 33), Roethlisberger’s yards and turnovers made him tight with Dalton.

The Decision: We just think the Steelers’ personnel (Le’Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount) and scheme (zone blocking) tailors them to be a stronger running team, which is what Mike Tomlin wants to be their identity to be anyway. We feel a little better shooting with RR than BB for that reason.

We put them together for Texas A&M, and that’s about it. We still don’t know if Manziel will start right away as a rookie, and we still don’t know what his weapons will look like on a run-oriented, defensive-minded team. As for Tannehill, we know he was No. 16 in QB scoring last season, and we know his supporting cast didn’t really get too much better. The Dolphins won’t have the same success running as Cleveland, and we like Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Jarvis Landry and Charles Clay just enough over Manziel’s Josh Gordon-less Browns targets.

The Decider: Both are definitely QB2s, and although Manziel has more upside for later, Tannehill is the better backup behind a weekly stud for now.

It’s the steady but not flashy No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 real draft (Smith) vs. the stoic but streaky No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 real draft. For how much heat the Chiefs’ passing game got for its lack of pizzazz last season, Smith was still the No. 14 QB scorer, thanks to low turnovers (10) and rushing punch (431 yards, TD). Manning was durable as usual, but through an atrocious season (29 turnovers to 18 TDs), he finished a dismal No. 22 in fantasy.

Enter Ben McAdoo, Aaron Rodgers’ former passing guru, to get Manning back to at least the respectable No. 14 he was in 2012. The Giants will be an improved rushing team with their offensive line and newcomer Rashad Jennings, but with that comes more shorter, efficient passing for Eli. That said, he still will be let loose plenty with Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr.

The Decision: The Chiefs won’t change up much with their offensive formula of Jamaal Charles first and second, so take Manning in a mild upset here. He’s the ideal upside QB2 to stash behind an injury risk.