Madge wrote:YES, please give me a target! I'm going to be OUT OF MOBILE SERVICE for like 3+ days. I'm going to be exhausted at night and not 100% sure I'll have wifi. I want to submit a target ASAP so if I end up going out of service I don't end up being a lame duck.

What's the timing for this? When do you need the advice at the latest?

Because I had already had him filed under town before, and I have yet to be convinced to move him off the town list (bessie flipping scum seems to be further evidence in his favor).

Why did you file him under town in the first place? Why does bessie flipping scum seem to be further evidence in his favor

SuperJedi224 wrote:

plytho wrote: and why wam is so low

I honestly don't know why I put him so close to the bottom. Rereading the topic, the only two comments from him that really catch my attention are this and this, so he probably belongs closer to the middle of the list.[size=50](Apparently we don't have the [post] tag here either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

Also thesetwo later posts, though I was already somewhat suspicious of plytho by that point.

Vicarin wrote:Also, if the common factor of those teams is Mark, doesn't that make him way more likely than either of me or moody to be scum? Why aren't you voting for him?

While he is among the more likely suspects, I'm not entirely convinced that Mark is the third man. For example, it could be vic/frog (though that now seems less likely than vic/mark), and this post has me considering madge/frog as a possibility. I'd still be willing to consider changing my vote to mark later in Day 2 though depending on which direction the vote seems to be going.

Also thesetwo later posts, though I was already somewhat suspicious of plytho by that point.

The "why" is very important. Because some of those are the towniest posts plytho has made from my point of view, but you have different context then I do. Let's take that second one specifically, where plytho it's talking about Sabrar asking the mod questions about safe claims. What did you find scummy about that?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Probably town:Vic - As said before, his reaction to Bessie's flip felt like genuine surprise. His arguments against Sabrar were about the principle's of confidence and logical reasoning, not about anything to do with Sabrar's actual read of Bessie. His actions and reads have been poor, but his tone is very townie.

wam - I can see where wam was coming from D1 about the SuperJedi thing. Town-wam thinks: "Going after a newbie D1 is unfair" => "If they are both scum it's not unfair" => "boomfrog and Jedi are scum" => Vote boomfrogScum-wam thinks: "BoomFrog is being a real jerk to the town newbie" => "I can probably attack him for being scummy for that" => (I think here he would have read jedi as town and me as scum going for an easy lynch if he wanted to pursue this angle)Scum-wam-MatesWithJedi thinks: "Damn, boomfrog is putting the pressure on Jedi" => "I need to defend my newbie mate, this is a newbie game, but still keep some distance" => Vote boomfrog

So townie points if Jedi is town and scummy points if Jedi is scum. But scum!Jedi and town!wam is still possible. EDIT: I just really don't get the feeling that wam would tie himself to scum-mate Jedi like that either. More townie points. Lack of a reads list and late to the vote are both bad signs. However, wam's comment about NKing plytho is interesting. It shows that wam didn't think through the whole chain of logic from scum's perspective. Although it is possible scum!wam really did not think things through too much D1, but still some townie points for this. This post is interesting. I think busing scum wam would have just voted for bessie there. But he instead locked himself in to the bessie vote accidentally by eliminating plytho and sabrar from the possibilities, which means I think he sincerely had not made up his mind yet. Overall, I'd like to see a reads list but I'm leaning town.

Moody - So, at the beginning of D1 I felt like moody was likely town. But Zen had some interesting points and I didn't want to take the pressure off moody so I stayed quiet. Zen is fairly convincing and moody's only real answer is "look at the timing of my vote, it's too early to be a bus, I must be town." which means scum-moody would be well aware of the credit he was trying to earn. However, I reread the vote progression D1 and I do think it was too early for moody to try to cash in. moody knows he rarely makes it to end game and Bessie is a strong player. A moody-bessie team should not be sacrificing bessie D1, and there were plenty of other's to try to go for. I disagree about the "lurker lynch" as it was clear there was little traction to lynch the newbie. Going for Sabrar would be risky, but wam or Mark would have been pretty good choices to go for. Zen and I were both eager to lynch wam. And if wam is the 3rd on this team, Mark would have been a good choice to bring up earlier. So I just don't see moody being bessie's mate. Also, the fact that moody doesn't bring up Mark or Wam as potential targets in his defense here is a good sign. That means he is coming back to this later and looking at what scum-moody would have done, not recalling what he was planning at the time.

mpolo - Slight credit for town slip, his vote for bessie was surprising and is at just the right time for mates to start bussing so no credit there. His tone feels townie so I've been giving him a pass, but on an iso he has had very few reads. I know there's been some RL busy-ness but I'd like to see a reads list from mpolo.

Zenii - I've been reading Zen as town by tone, but Zen is both good at faking tone and using a very reserved style this game so I can't count that for too much. Worryingly, they haven't been making very good calls this game. D1 they declared Sabrar town-but-wrong and Bessie also town. I agreed at the time so this could have come from town or scum Zenii. I disagree with their assessment of moody as well. My gut still says town, but if we misslynch until LYLO and Zen is still alive, lynch Zen. I'm serious, if I'm dead and that situation comes up and I am ignored I will frown at everyone sternly from beyond the grave.

Probably Scum, but probably not both of them:Mark - Lurkey and his few opinions have been mostly in support of Bessie and against people who I think are town (Sabrar and Vic). His attack on Vic D2 feels a lot like he is following a plan to kill Sabrar and try to get Vic lynched on the dead Sabrar's word.SuperJedi - Starting to participate and that is good. Newbies are very uncertain to read sometimes and he is one of those. I would like to hear more about his opinions of other players, and more importantly why he has those opinions.

Scummates analysis:Mark is not buddies with Vic, SuperJediSuperJedi is not buddies with Zen, Mark, moody, VicZen is not buddies with SuperJedi, moody, wamMoody is not buddies with SuperJedi, VicWam is not buddies with Zen, and probably not SuperJedi after rereading.mpolo is not buddies with [error 400: $nonBuddiesList cannot be null]

So among my likely suspects the likely teams are:Mark and [Zenii,moody,wam,mpolo]wam and SuperJedi if wam was just desperately blatant (which is within his meta to do)mpolo and anybody

UnvoteVote Mark_Cangila

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Like Vic, his posts also come off as careless/stream-of-conscious-like. He also has consistently prodded the game along. Some speculation that I have is that his stream-of-conscious tone may be falsely constructed. For example, this post:

BoomFrog wrote:

Sabrar wrote:Lol, that completely reversed my read on you.

Ooo, ooo! Am I scum now? What gave you the townie feeling originally? Voting superJedi? hmm...

My tiny Sabrar clone is just smirking at me...

Sabrar wrote:On second thought you might have misread it as either alignment.

Oh, I was scum and then town. But now back toward "Is BoomFrog". I see. So scummy for voting SuperJedi? Or scummy for no gambit?

It's not like he was ninja'd so why react to both posts?

Also, I wanted to reply to this but never found a good time. I was actually ninja'd in between those two posts, I read the first, replied then read the second post by Sabrar and wrote the second half of the reply.

I do purposely try to preserve my stream-of-consciousness in my posts. I think it makes it more challenging to fake as scum and has made me a better scum player, like Goku's weighted clothes.

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Vicarin wrote:Ha, are you saying that the complete misreading of the setup wasn't a gambit? Amazing.

No, that was a sincere misreading that I posted even though I vaguely felt it it couldn't be right, because I knew it would give me townie points to display ignorance of the setup. I'd have probably posted the exact same thing as scum.

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

SuperJedi’s reads list is similar to Vicarin’s and bessies. Vote. Comment to moody was to catch him, since his reasoning was poor. Mark_Cangila can’t accept everything Sabrar says, because Sabrar read him as scum. Bessie wouldn’t bus plytho so hard on D1. Bad moment for vig claim due to possible even-night RB. Supported bessie because Sabrar and plytho’s args were incorrect. (Sabrar accusing town!Vicarin…) Sabrar kill probably targetting Vicarin. Many people see being wrong as sinonymous with scummy. Would anyone bus bessie? What would convince of SJ being scum (if we assume he is coached, so scummy posts =/= scummy).

Doesn’t like moody’S reasons for switching. Not convinced by coaching arguments. Why does SJ rank moody so townie? And wam so scummy? Lists are weird today from SJ. Puzzled by moody/SJ suggesting connection between Vic and bessie when both were town — masons unlikely. Why did SJ think plytho scummy D1? Moody looking for excuses not to vote. Wants content from BF. What reversed BF’s read on me? Point out plytho’s scummy posts, SJ. If Mark is certainly scum for SJ, why isn’t he voting him? Wanting to avoid a tie 24 hours before deadline is a terrible argument. Moody implies that bussing only occurs in emergencies. Madge should use conditionals in kill submission, if possible.

Why is moody’s town-read of BF and mpolo stronger than of Madge.

Sabrar: bessie is non-commital on moody, then reads him townie, then he disagrees with her completely. Does not like reasons for my bessie vote. Scum!mpolo wouldn’t bother to answer for scum!Mark_Cangila, as he would have scumchat. Scum!mpolo wouldn’t try to help town!Mark_Cangila. (Argument with Vicarin on stats). Says that Vicarin/bessie could be masons, but he doesn’t think so.

Celebrates good start. Votes Vicarin. Wants reasons for SuperJedi’s vote. Encourages SuperJedi after good post. It was clear that plytho or Sabrar would be Nked. Main ping against Vicarin was the invitation to moody to switch votes. SuperJedi would have been better coached if he were scum.

Open to Zenii’s moody argument. Makes a case against moody. Says why we shouldn’t assume scum would be coaching SJ. Thinks we can wrap this up N2 without him getting killed.

Wants reads. Prods SJ on his ordering.

moody: Didn’t want to make a tie. Agrees with my sentiment about bessie. Vicarin is dead man walking. What did Sabrar think about Mark?

<skips p. 12>

Vicarin and bessie are definitely coaligned. Could have been masons or scum, but now it must be scum. Vicarin jumps in to defend bessie on the confirmation post analysis. Had several vote options at the moment of voting rather than bussing.

Reads: SJ-Mark-wam at bottom. Weights scum/town reads for a few people.

Zenii: bessie should claim. Is she claiming vanilla? Better not to lose a power role

Wants explanation from Mark_Cangila. Wam’s vote for bessie is a null tell. Liked his encouraging moody to commit. Votes moody without justification. Explains: moody is too hesitant to vote bessie. Putting undue weight on bessie-Vicarin pairing. Mpolo looks better than moody as he was deciding vote.

Votes Vicarin. Because moody pointed out a connection with bessie. Thought both were town, but now both are proabably scum.

Moody is town because bessie’s flip confirms read from yesterday. Don’t know why wam is so low on the list. Scum is either Vic-Mark or moody-Mark, but Vic is more likely.

Points to scummy posts from plytho. Mark is only very likely as third member. (Madge/BF is possible too.)

Mark_Cangila: <no posts p. 11>

Vicarin looks bad. But maybe being framed by mafia. Vicarin is closely tied to bessie.

A Bessie-SJ-Moody team would require SJ to be a PR. If he isn’t, moody wouldn’t bus, and Vic could be scum. [This post confused me.]

Madge: <subs in on p. 12>

Claims vig, offers control to town. Somitomi withheld kill. Not going to try to play against meta. Being wrong isn’t scummy. Who was “protected” by the Sabrar kill?

If nothing else comes, wants to follow Sabrar’s gut with Mark or wam for kill.

A lot to process here. The groups are not ordered here, as I only have 5 more minutes…

TOWNIEplytho - likely townMadge - likely town due to claim

NEUTRALSVicarin - while the staunchest supporter of bessie, D2 content is looking more townie. Tends to get caught up in arguing details (which had me glossing over posts when the stats battle was going on, leading to my feeling that I didn't have enough to go on).wam - vote on bessie came late, and the wagon was pretty much decided. Keeps pressure against plytho.BoomFrog - I like his development on Vicarin, general explanations.Zenii - Somewhat less material to go on, but analyses generally solid.

TENDING SCUMmoody - I am flopping on him here. On reread, his motivations for not voting bessie are weak. Pushing the Vicarin and bessie absolutely have to be co-aligned far too hard. Why couldn't town!Vicarin have been totally fooled by the wily bessie and her mad hell-hound of death? (just kidding about your dog, bessie, but since you were scum…)

SCUMMYSuperJedi is all over the place. On the one hand, he is trying to explain his posts when pressed, on the other, he is quick to sheep. Some signs of making an ordered list "just to make us happy", as he wasn't able to give reasons for some positions.Mark_Cangila is only an occasional poster, so hard to get a vibe. One post totally confused me, so I may be misreading due to that. Harps on Vicarin, but giving himself a lot of leeway to say he wasn't sure.

I hope I got everybody in there. At the moment, I would probably vote for Mark_Cangila, as he fits better into scum pairings.

I'll be really explict: How likely, as a rough percentage, do you think it is that scum would claim as a Vig D2 in this setup? And why are the likelihoods of mpolo and BoomFrog being scum even lower than that?

Madge wrote:YES, please give me a target! I'm going to be OUT OF MOBILE SERVICE for like 3+ days. I'm going to be exhausted at night and not 100% sure I'll have wifi. I want to submit a target ASAP so if I end up going out of service I don't end up being a lame duck.

What's the timing for this? When do you need the advice at the latest?

@moody: why are plytho, boomfrog, and mpolo all so high in your reads list? The low people I can see why, but given everyone else seems to be counting my claim for a lot (phew!), and plytho/BF/mpolo haven't claimed, what have they got going for them instead? I know you say plytho's at an 8.5 and I'm at something like ~4.9, but why? What have they done that's so towny? What's I done that's so scummy? The reason people like ordered lists is because you have to justify your read of everyone, and I don't see the justification for those relative reads.

@superjedi: vicarin asked you to give why plytho's posts were scummy, just listing posts isn't going to cut it, you'll need to say what it was you thought was suspicious and why.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

D1post 1: confirm and rv Sabrarpost 2&3: unsure of Sabrar's explination on safe claimspost 4: agrees on safe claimspost 5: after prompted by BF, defines what he understands Sabrar's idea to be

his explanation in this post is what my understanding of it is.

post 6&7: says he's lost in the pace of D1post 8: anti suit claim, prefers full claim laterpost 9: fluffpost 10: disputes the read on Vicarin based on postingpost 11: retraction of post 10post 12: disputes Vicarin's idea that Mark enjoys a scummy metapost 13-15: declares "the conf post issue is a red herring", feels that bessie and Sabrar should drop the issue.

At this point, I'm looking for the connection Sabrar mentioned among the three {bessie, Vicarin, Mark}, and I'm not seeing a strong signal from Mark's end. It would have to be from the other side if it exists (cynical view here: the original wording in post 13 was a slip telling his scummates not to get into the weeds)

post 16: fluffpost 17-19: amplifies a response by BF on Mark's post 10post 20: upset with Sabrar for saying bessie responding to Sabrar's analysis is scummypost 21: partial reads list (5 out of 11), has Vicarin as the only town, SuperJedi and Sabrar as scum.

no read on bessie is what sticks out here

post 22: response about his read on SuperJedi, no change in read

D2post 23: response to the flips is a FoS on Vicarin and a suggestion that he might have been framed

(cynical view here: this was a token response)

post 24: follow on to post 23, says he's scumreading Vicarin but also looking at players who are against Vicarin

Also I've just checked the website of my accomodation on Tuesday night and it appears I will NOT have wi-fi and only limited mobile reception. With the day end deadline 24 hours later, there's no guarantee I'll be able to change my target (if I can I will, but I might forget / have other priorities / collapse into bed).

So I need some vig targets in 24 hours, or I'll use my own ineffable criteria to choose my target.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.