Juncker’s moment

In a week of make-or-break moments for the EU, Jean-Claude Juncker is facing more than his fair share.

Brussels has become a whirlwind of EU leaders, who gathered Monday to try to find an agreement on the Greek crisis and are back on Thursday and Friday to address Europe’s migration crisis.

Their full summit plate for the end of the week also includes other hot-potato agenda items, including European defense and security, an ambitious digital strategy, a €315 billion investment program and a discussion of the coming U.K. referendum on EU membership.

But beyond what the European Council agrees on (or does not agree on, as the case may be), the meeting will be a test of Juncker’s tenacity on issues that have already been testing the political solidarity of the Union.

The Commission president has made a personal push for a migration agenda that has proved difficult to swallow for many EU countries, and has also made it known since taking office last November that he believes it is important to keep Greece in the eurozone.

“Juncker is a veteran of the eurozone crisis. He knows what is required to put together a deal,” said Fredrik Erixon, a Swedish economist and director of the European Center for International Political Economy. “He has taken a good line on migration, pushing member states to deal with the Mediterranean crisis.”

To be sure, other top European players figure in the separate dramas that will unfold in the two-day summit: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are front-and-center on the Greek bailout issues; U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron is the key figure on the referendum issue; and Italy’s Matteo Renzi has taken a lead role on migration.

Juncker has done “a lot to educate, organize the work in substance, and help with the negotiations with mutual understanding.”

But Juncker, a former prime minister of Luxembourg with a long career of working behind the scenes to find political consensus, has given himself roles in all of these power plays.

The subtle approach

Though it is not up to the Commission to make the final decisions on Greece and on how to handle migration, this week, political observers say, will provide a measure of how effective Juncker has been as a broker in both issues. It will be a sure sign of how much political influence he has in getting member states to agree.

Several diplomats interviewed by POLITICO say Juncker has shown more power, influence, and finesse in the last months than his predecessors.
“His approach to the Commission is new. It is a more subtle, more political approach,” said a French diplomat, who declined to be named because he is not authorized to speak on the record.

The difficult political issues facing the EU, the diplomat said, “require a different method and a different language. Juncker entered into this game with ease.”

While EU leaders such as Merkel and France’s François Hollande have been driving forces in the Greek discussions, the official said, Juncker has done “a lot to educate, organize the work in substance, and help with the negotiations with mutual understanding.”

Other diplomats pointed to the role of EU foreign policy chief and Commission Vice President Federica Mogherini alongside Juncker. “She is much more central than [Catherine] Ashton was,” said another diplomat. “Unlike Juncker, both [former Commission President José Manuel] Barroso and Ashton were not at the center of the game.”

Juncker contributes with a lot of expertise because he was the president of the Eurogroup, he is influential, but he is not a key actor when it comes to a deal.”

However, politicians and experts agree that Juncker and the Commission’s political impact on these sensitive issues will be limited. The institution is not one of Greece’s creditors and a deal with Greece must be found among member states rather than in the Berlaymont. “Those are subjects where the Commission can’t define things alone,” said Richard Corbett, a long-serving British MEP from the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats.

“The Greek bailout is a bailout from other eurozone countries. Juncker contributes with a lot of expertise because he was the president of the Eurogroup, he is influential, but he is not a key actor when it comes to a deal.”

Juncker's baby

Migration is a different issue as Juncker has taken an unusually proactive stance. One Commission spokesperson recently referred to the controversial proposal to relocate asylum-seekers as “President Juncker’s baby.”

But the Council’s most recent draft conclusions on migration show that baby to be in some peril. Though high-ranking diplomats from the 28 member states have included his pledge to relocate 40,000 asylum-seekers and resettle 20,000 refugees, the document makes no direct reference to the idea of a mandatory mechanism for the relocation — something Juncker has been insisting on.

Still, he gets credit for pushing relentlessly on the issue.

“In the context of Brussels, he had to put something ambitious on the table to get things moving,” said Elizabeth Collett, director of Migration Policy Institute Europe.

Relocation involves refugees who are already in the European Union while resettlement targets asylum seekers outside the 28-country bloc. Many countries oppose making the relocation of refugees mandatory. On the eve of the summit, one senior Council official said the idea of making the proposal mandatory was a non-starter.

“It’s not about mandatory or voluntary, it’s what is going to help the problem,” the official said. “The idea that quotas can be imposed in Brussels is not going to fly.”

Diplomats still expect a compromise in the Council between countries pushing for a mandatory mechanism (such as Italy and Germany) and those who are in favor of a voluntary decision, mainly in Eastern Europe, and Juncker will still get credit for his tenacity on the issue.

If Juncker succeeds in keeping the key number of 40,000 asylum-seekers in the conclusions of the European Council, it would be be a victory for him and his attempts to push countries to face up to their responsibilities.

EU countries will hand Juncker another victory of sorts Thursday with his plan to raise €315 billion in mostly private sector money to boost investment projects across the Union. The measure was set to be voted on by the Parliament on Wednesday.

Juncker’s report on Economic and Monetary Union, prepared along with four other presidents — European Council chief Donald Tusk; the Eurogroup’s head, Jeroen Dijsselbloem; Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank; and European Parliament President Martin Schulz — has also been perceived by many in Brussels as sending a strong signal to the British government ahead of the summit.