WASHINGTON TALK: POLITICS

WASHINGTON TALK: POLITICS; Bush, Bullets Hot, Recalls the Alamo

By GERALD M. BOYD

Published: February 20, 1987

WASHINGTON, Feb. 19—
When Vice President Bush said last week that ''there might be a little bit of friction'' in the future between some of his policies and those of the Reagan Administration, some who take an interest in such political affairs saw it as the equivalent of fleeing the Alamo just as the bullets started flying.

Aides to Mr. Bush have another explanation.

They say the Vice President would never sever the political umbilical cord that has attached him to President Reagan, especially in the midst of Mr. Reagan's current difficulties over the Iran scandal. But, they say, after six years of being Mr. Reagan's Mr. Bush, the Vice President is soon to present the American voters Mr. Bush's Mr. Bush.

''If you look at the polls, the No. 1 job the American people want for their Vice President is to support the President,'' said one top adviser to Mr. Bush. ''So far, he has a grade of A-plus.''

''Now, he's got to audition to the American people for another job, that of President, and he has got to go around the country to explain his own vision.''

His aides say the ''little bit of friction'' that Mr. Bush mentioned is one of several developments that will take place in coming months, developments that, taken together, could have a major impact on whether Mr. Bush returns to the White House in 1988 or finds employment elsewhere.

Today, in another of those developments, Mr. Bush announced the creation of the George Bush for President Committee, which he said would begin preparing for his ''likely campaign for President in 1988.'' It was the first time that he has used ''likely'' to describe what has long been obvious in Washington political circles. A Large Number of Supporters

The committee is to be managed by Lee Atwater, a former White House political adviser who also directed Mr. Bush's political action committee last year. In addition, it will have as senior advisers the core of supporters who have long been close to the Vice President, including Nicholas F. Brady, former Republican Senator from New Jersy; Dean Burch, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, and Robert M. Teeter, president of Market Opinion Research, Mr. Bush's pollster.

The committee is also sprinkled with political strategists and supporters of Mr. Reagan, including Holmes Tuttle, a Los Angeles businessman who is a longtime Reagan intimate. Mr. Tuttle will serve in a largely symbolic role as national finance co-chairman. At the same time, Robert Mosbacher, a Texas businessman who was active in Mr. Bush's unsuccessful 1980 campaign for the Presidency, will again serve as top financial adviser.

By announcing such a large number of supporters so early before the primary season begins next winter, Mr. Bush could be trying, in effect, to tell other potential Republican Presidential hopefuls, ''Why bother?''

But one key adviser denied such a strategy. ''There is no magic or secret strategy or giant masterplan,'' he said. ''It's just common sense.''

The aides acknowledge that other moves must be made soon if Mr. Bush is to escape the political curse that has dogged the Presidential ambitions of Vice Presidents and prevented the election of one as President since Martin Van Buren in 1836.

In coming weeks, they say, Mr. Bush will begin enunicating his own policy positions in eight or so speeches that he plans to deliver around the nation. Mr. Bush, whose ties to the Washington establishment run strong, will also begin to ''look outside Washington'' for ideas, the aides say, as he develops positions on such issues as how to ease the nation's farm crisis. 'As Much Input as Possible'

''In any issue area, you want to get as much input as possible from people outside Washington,'' said a top adviser.

Mr. Bush's advisers are also searching for a suitable trip abroad that could highlight his frequently touted expertise in foreign affairs, which he developed as the chief United States delegate to the United Nations and as chief United States liaison officer to China. One plan under consideration is to have Mr. Bush travel to Europe to discuss the Administration's arms control policies with United States allies.

Mr. Bush issued his friction prediction at a news conference in Springfield, Ill., last week. Aides said he wanted to alert the White House to forthcoming statements that might be construed as criticism of Administration policy. Mr. Bush said at the news conference that the President, at least, would understand.

One close Bush associate said that although the remarks might suggest an impending schism, the Vice President's relationship with Mr. Reagan was such that he would adamantly resist breaking with the President on any substantive matter. The associate said that would continue to be true even if Mr. Bush came to believe his election was in jeopardy. ''It really is a character and loyalty thing with the Vice President,'' the associate explained.

The aide said there was no guarantee that a Vice President who ran for President by running away from the policies of the sitting chief executive would succeed in being elected. He noted that Hubert H. Humphrey broke with President Johnson on the Vietnam War and still lost, much as Walter F. Mondale opposed some policies of President Carter and still lost his bid for President.

Much of Mr. Bush's strategy has long been fashioned on the belief that his best chance of gaining the nomination is through the support of conservative party activists loyal to Mr. Reagan. Aides also believe he would profit in the general election by cultivating his image as a less ideological conservative than some of his Republican rivals for the nomination.

Mr. Bush's closeness to Mr. Reagan will make it easy for him to claim that he is a logical heir, his aides say. But they expect Representative Jack F. Kemp of upstate New York also to try to convince voters that he is the natural ideological heir to Mr. Reagan. And Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is expected to argue that, as Senate majority leader, he did much to assure the enactment of Reagan policies. On the Iran Affair

Mr. Bush said recently that he had voiced ''certain reservations'' about how Mr. Reagan's arms-for-hostages policy toward Iran was developing, although he and his aides have refused to indicate to whom Mr. Bush related such concerns.

Aides say Mr. Bush believes he will not suffer policital damage from the Iran affair and that it will fade as an issue long before the 1988 campaign begins in earnest.

''To the extent that it hurts George Bush in 1988, it will hurt the Republican Party in general,'' one aide said.

Mr. Bush made no mention of the Iran scandal in the statement today announcing his Presidential committee. But he did say, ''Americans deserve the best from their leaders and their governments, and that's what I hope to give them as we discuss the critical issues of this decade and the next.''