Market Analysis

Gas prices increased during Wednesday’s session due to an undersupplied system and rising fuel markets. Scheduled maintenance in Norway restricted flows to the rest of Europe, while colder weather lifted demand, tightening supply. Further out, oil prices found support from the potential US/ China trade war and tensions in the Middle East.

An outage in Germany saw Norwegian flows rerouted to the UK yesterday, impacting European markets. The front of the UK gas curve moved higher on the back of a colder weather outlook for the remainder of the week. Prices at the back of the curve also displayed a bullish trend on the back of rising fuel contracts.

Bulls came back to the fore on Monday despite an upwards revision in temperature forecasts pointing to warm weather next week. A tight UK Gas system due to step up in gas demand from CCGTs on the back of very low wind power generation combined with two unplanned outages in Norway.

Milder weather helped to weigh on near-curve gas prices on Friday, with healthy LNG send-outs contributing to a slightly oversupplied system. Temperatures could rise to 5°C above the seasonal norm in some parts of Europe, resulting in comfortable systems. Meanwhile, coal and oil remained bullish, restricting downward movement at the back of the curve.

Residential demand was predicted to fall today, with improved renewable generation also reducing the need for gas-fired power. However, the system was short throughout the session due to stronger demand and weaker flows via the Langeled pipeline. An upward revision in the short term weather forecast kept any gains to a minimum, while far-curve prices were almost unchanged at the close of the session.