Report: Fla. adds 2 seats, N.Y. loses

A new estimate of House reapportionment gains and losses resulting from this year’s Census reveals a larger-than-expected impact on Florida and New York. According to Washington-based Election Data Services, which reviewed new Census data from a private-sector demographic firm, Florida would gain two House seats and New York would lose two seats.

They would join two other states that already were projected to have multiple-seat changes. Based on the tentative Census data, Texas is expected to gain four House seats and Ohio likely will lose two seats.

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According to the EDS estimate, six other states each would gain one seat: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Eight states would each lose one seat: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

In addition to the Florida and New York changes, the other major switch in the projected reapportionment is that Missouri will lose a House seat instead of Minnesota, according to EDS President Kimball Brace. He released the study for a redistricting seminar of the National Conference of State Legislature in Providence, Rhode Island, this weekend.

Brace said that he had an “inkling” of the Missouri/Minnesota switch, but added, “We were most surprised at the shift of an additional district out of New York and down to Florida, even though that follows the population movement in this country since World War II.”

Although these estimates likely will be close to the official outcome, there are no guarantees until the Census Bureau’s scheduled announcement in late December of the final Census population totals for the 50 states. With those numbers, a long-standing statutory formula will quickly apportion the 435 House seats. That, in turn, will lead to the state-by-state redistricting of House seats, which will revise the congressional maps for the 2012 election.

Assessing the partisan impact remains speculative, not least because November results will determine who controls the state legislature and governor’s office in many states—partisan changes would affect who controls the map-drawing in many states. The outcome of congressional elections in November likely will create additional variables, including partisan control of seats and the relative influence of House members within a state delegation.

Still, some early projections can be made based on current population data, especially for the four states projected to have multiple-seat changes.

In Texas, Republicans are expected to retain control of the legislature and Republican Gov. Rick Perry has a small lead over Democratic challenger Bill White. Even with complete GOP control of redistricting, however, the surge in Hispanic population likely will result in a Democratic gain of one or two of the expected four new seats—including one each in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and in the Houston metropolitan area.

Republicans expect to add a seat in the Austin-San Antonio region and in other rapidly-growing suburban areas. There could be significant redistricting tweaks in heavily Hispanic border districts, which have had large population gains, and in sprawling rural areas where population has been relatively stagnant.