Monday, July 30, 2012

Natural Gas Hurricane Watch: Invest area 99L forms in tropical Atlantic as conditions become more favorable

Probably no development from this invest but they should start coming every 4-5 days as the dust from the Saharan Air Layer diminishes.
From Hurricane Track:

The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure well to the south and west
of the Cape Verde Islands for possible development. It appears that
conditions across the region are becoming more conducive for tropical
cyclone formation. The dry, dusty air seen in recent weeks has
significantly decreased and water temps are just warm enough to support
development.

Looking at some of the parameters typically associated with tropical
cyclone formation, we see that vertical wind shear, the difference in
wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is right where
it should be for this time of year. In other words, shear is not a
factor. It is running at about the climatological average. This should
allow for a steady growth in deep tropical thunderstorms or convection.
In turn, this will allow the pressures to continue to fall as the fairly
large envelope of energy gradually consolidates as it moves westward....MORE

...Ike was one of those long-haul storms that come off the coast of Africa
and there's still too much dust and sand for any development for the
next few weeks. Better odds on a Gulf of Mexico formation but still,
long odds.