Tuesday, March 11, 2014

MH 370: Time to Speculate

What Happened?

Last Friday a Malaysia 777 disappeared. I, along with the rest of the world, was glued to the news awaiting answers. I pulled away to run to the airport to give girls free flights. The rain poured crying tears for all on board. I returned Saturday and watched the news waiting for answers. I awoke Sunday with more of the same, but no news. Then off to the airport to give more girls free flights, and back home. Still no answers.

This was a challenging weekend as my two worlds of aviation collided. Sharing the gift of flight with so many, and watching the story unfold of this missing airliner. Today we still have not found that plane.

I have been asked by many what I think. My initial reaction was one
of three theories which has shifted to one possibility. While I hate to
speculate, I think it's important to do so in this case for one
reason....So we can find the plane and answers.

Look at the facts:

The
Boeing 777 is a solid, stable, aircraft that will not fall out of the
sky for anything short of a man made catastrophic event, meaning....
explosives.

If the plane exploded midair, we would have found debris.

There
is no reason for someone to blow this plane up, unless there was a
target on board.

Was there a potential target on board?

This is not an AF447 event.

There was no weather.

The Captain was experienced, and knew how to fly.

Anyone
who has the elaborate simulator system in their house that he did, was
not flying it on the autopilot. He was keeping his flying skills alive
as an aviation geek.

Did the plane become uncontrollable?

If
there had been a rapid depressurization the pilots would don their quick
donning oxygen masks, fly the plane, descend and then communicate.

If
the plane lost all flight controls due to an explosion that did not
blow up the entire plane, or for any other reason, they would have given
a Mayday, "we're going down" call after they put their masks on.

Two Suspect Passengers

Stolen passports and tickets paid with cash by Iranian group. A smuggling ring? Perhaps, or possibly using that as the explanation so the travel agent was unsuspecting.

Their final destination of these tickets could be the distraction of the pattern of the smuggling ring.

They may or may not be involved, but this does not change what I think. However, if it quacks like a duck...

My Theory:

I think the flight deck was compromised. The timing, an hour into the flight, the flight attendants would have finished drink service to first class passengers and taken coffee or meal service to the pilots. This would have been a time the door was open. I believe the terrorists turned the transponder off. They told the captain to fly the plane toward a different city. Hong Kong comes to mind, but they could have turned back to Singapore, or head anywhere in range with one mission in mind: Create another 911 event.

I believe that captain initially followed their directions and when he realized what was about to happen, he put the plane into the ocean to save thousands of lives on the ground. If I were in that seat and they decided they didn't need me anymore, I would click off the autopilot and push the nose over in descent during my final breath.

The reason we cannot find this plane is we are looking in the wrong location.

The search crew should draw a line from the point of disappearance, incorporating the turning radius of the plane, to all major cities that could have been a target. Then they need to take the trajectory with the speed and altitude and look in those locations with a 30 mile width.

Why has nobody taken credit?

Because they failed!

If they were planning on blowing up a plane, credit would be taken.

They are not showing their hand because they plan on doing this again and do not want us to know who they are.

Yes... this is pure speculation. But if I am correct, and they look on a flight path to a major city, we may just find this plane sooner than later. We must find out what happened to make sure it never happens again.

We need to find that plane!

As many of you know I faced a ramification when I wrote about AF447. As it turned out, I
had been accurate on everything I wrote. I am taking a deep
breath as I write my thoughts today. I cannot keep this quiet because if I'm right on this too, we
might just find that plane sooner than later.

345 comments:

I've been thinking about TWA800 and an explosion in an empty fuel tank, but yes, by now they should have found debris. Diversion makes sense, no wreckage because everyone is looking in the wrong place.

Yes... but I still think TWA800 was a missile. I flew those planes for years with empty fuel tanks. I ran those pumps getting the last bit of fuel out. Sometimes 1500 pounds after the indication said zero. Another story for sure. lol.

But yes... they would have found debris. Being an avid traveler, I know you want to find the answer as soon as possible too! Thank you so much for your comment.

Taking the side track, I've never bought the friendly/US Navy missile theory for TWA800 for one simple reason: the unlikelihood of keeping all those mouths shut. I spent 24 years in the Navy, and have seen many missile firings; it's a pretty big deal onboard the ship. There isn't a person onboard who doesn't know about it. That's somewhere around 200-300 people or more (depending on the ship). Sadly, I've seen random photos online of small unique incidents - some classified, some tragic - a few of which I've personally witnessed, which only a very limited number of people (fewer than 10) could have taken/posted, and which had shock value, and there they were. Similar to photos of Abu Ghraib and US Marines urinating on a corpse on a battlefield in Afghanistan. In the days of internet, instant gratificiation, instant celebrity, and anonymous whistle-blowing, it's not plausible to impose an air-tight seal on one of the biggest, most scandalous stories in modern US Navy history. Even if it was just a 20-man ship (ie doesn't exist), my bet would still be on 'loose lips'. In my opinion.

As much as I'm holding out hope for a happy ending, your idea of the captain's selfless act of sacrifice offers a sobering reality that no one in the mainstream media is talking about. We want answers, but are we ready to accept them once we get them? I pray for all involved.

I pray for all involved too. If they someone was planning something with this plane, I believe the captain stopped it from happening. When they find the plane, we'll find out. Thanks for your comment and prayers too.

I'm not a fan of speculation. I will say this: my prayers are with the families. Two: information released today by the military shows the 777 deviating off course for reasons still unknown. Until those boxes are recovered, the truth will remain aboard that aircraft

SR111 hypothesis is based on MH370's FP (Flight Path) which stongly resembles that of SR111.It turned back but fire on the FD due to badly-wired upgraded screens from CRT to LCD, caused an inferno.I am going on an hunch

SR111 hypothesis is based on MH370's FP (Flight Path) which stongly resembles that of SR111.

It turned back but fire on the FD due to badly-wired upgraded screens from CRT to LCD, caused an inferno.

Two Iranian 'youth' with fake passports. Report of crew members and passengers cell phones ringing to incoming calls and social media accounts showing activity on the Chinese social media QQ site. Then reports of military radar showing the aircraft turning around, the auto-IFF transponder being turned off immediately thereafter, followed by an intermittent radar track of an aircraft on that same new southwesterly bearing but at a slightly lower altitude, having crossed the Maylay peninsula and on out into the middle of the Malacca Strait (vic. Palau-Palak Island), which not-so-coincidentally I have noticed is a bearing towards northern Sumatra Island and which if contiued would take MH370 directly to.... the runway at Diego Garcia.

My speculation is of this being a super-duper, super-extraordinary form of rendition. I'm thinking the passangers, 99.9% are fine and will soon return to their loved ones.

Btw, I've heard the cell phone story debunked from mobile phone experts. Apparently when you call a phone, especially on an international call, the ringing sound doesn't actually mean it's on. They said the system often throws you in a ringing loop that is no real indicator if someone's phone is turned on.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2013-09-26/html/2013-23456.htmexcerpt: we received a report of cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin underneath the SATCOM antenna adapter. During a maintenance planning data inspection, one operator reported a 16-inch crack under the 3-bay SATCOM antenna adapter plate in the crown skin of the fuselage on an airplane that was 14 years old with approximately 14,000 total flight cycles. Subsequent to this crack finding, the same operator inspected 42 other airplanes that are between 6 and 16 years old and found some local corrosion, but no other cracking. Cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, if not corrected, could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the airplane" and a slow decompression ?

Interesting. Corrosion is a factor for fatigue. But I would contend the plane would not fall apart at the seems without the pilots being able to contact someone first. A slow decompression is the best kind. But even with the rapid we train for this stuff. And make an emergency call as we're descending.

Isnt rapid decompression still possible just like Air Chinas flight 611? Metal fatigue from inadequate maintenance caused that plane to pop like a balloon at 35k feet, completely breaking up midair. In an instance like this, theres no power available for the pilots to radio a Mayday. It all happens within a second. A tail strike had to be repaired, this kind of damage can happen to even a new plane. Also, if it was a terrorist act, arent the cockpits heavily locked? How would a terrorist get in there unless the flight attendant gave them the code? IF it was a terrorist, wouldnt the offender switch off the black boxes as well as the transponder to give no help to investigators (if they knew how)? Kinda difficult to point to terrorism when malaysia lets so many stolen passports through the system. The 19 y/o Iranians mother said she was waiting for him in Germany, did officials say whether or not his itinerary was taking him there, or was she just covering for him to clear his name? We dont know whether or not they were actually talking on the regular.

the crucial point is when MH370 turned back and tracking and communication was lost.But the plane was later still seen on Military radar.So at U turn there wasnt a big problem for the flight,still flying towards Malacca or Penang Airport.The biggest question is why the pilot was urged to turn back.1. He lost all of his electronic,but in this case there are still 240 mobile phones on board. No option2. He was called back from Kuala Lumpur to remove the forgotten baggage of the 5 noshow,but if so he could have landed on Penang. No option3. Highjackers,Islam kills Islam. no Option.4. Suicide of the captain.........maybe5.Malaysian Air Force got an unidentified Plane on their Radar with no response because of electronic failure what they didnt know. They shot it down and cover it up Option

Good writeup, Karlene. (And, love that you were giving free flights to the girls!) I too think they're looking in a the wrong place. I speculate as well that something other than a catastrophic accident or deliberate explosion on board. One of the early things a pilot would do would be to communicate, and that didn't happen, so something is definitely amiss. That said, while I have limited commercial aviation insight (I'm a lowly private pilot), I disagree that you think they'd be hand flying at that point in the flight. From what I understand, it's simply not procedure and/or trained to manually control during cruise, is it? Takeoff and approach, sure, than can, do and should have manual control, but not in cruise. Cheers, and stay safe!

I agree with your scenario, Karlene. One of the things I find interesting is the lack of information coming from the airline with regards to ACARS transmissions. I'm not sure of how flight operations work at MAH, but the aircraft should have been transmitting via SATCOM or radio a bunch of data. In addition to that, the flight was under ADS-B coverage, as shown on FlightRadar24 etc. According to other pilots flying the same route, WX was not an issue. Neither was the availability or quality of voice comms via VHF. So, what happened? If indeed it was a cockpit break-in, turning off the transponder only wouldn't be enough. The intruder would have to pull out all the Circuit Breakers or just rip out the cables / equipment to silence the aircraft. The radar returns from the airframe would still have been visible to the ATC controller, at least until it descended. But it seems radar coverage in the zone is lacking to the say the least. Amazingly so if you ask me, considering the geographic zone this happened. Specially weird that no military surveillance radars were scanning the area. Anyway, this is just speculation, my point is that whatever happened, it was serious enough (or evolved enough) to shut down all the aircraft communications (and I mean not only voice comms, but datalink), which to anyone familiar to the 777 is hard to believe. Tragic indeed.

Thank you so much for your comment. The silence is the question. And if they can make it silent to not display where it was headed, I'm sure they did that. This is a mystery for sure. My only hope in writing this if the plane... for whatever reason...was heading to someplace other than where it should... we need to focus our search in those areas. Not where it disappeared. I hope this has a happy ending. But...

What about all the people on boards cell phones/computers? Can't they be traced/tracked? If the plane landed certainly we would know if those cell phones were active or not. So I doubt that it landed safely.

Silence from cockpit and contradictory reports from agencies is equally tragic.Airlines can learn a lot from this to make flying safe. Modern avionics.military radars and satellites cannot detect it..hard to believe. Mystery continues till we find it....

I would like to add to my previous comment that another flight in the vicinity had to relay information from Vietnam's ATC because they were unable to talk to them after MH370 switched frequency as instructed. The flight doing the relay only got a garbled reply ("a mumble" is the word they used to define the reply with MH370). This, of course, could mean they were either under attack or wearing oxygen masks. Let's hope this incident is resolved soon.

What about a theory that the cockpit was breached and the terrorist had the pilots descend below radar coverage. The plane could be safe on the ground somewhere. You would think some sort of demands or communications would have occurred in this theory though.

Karlene, I note that you say, "The Boeing 777 is a solid, stable, aircraft that will not fall out of the sky...", and that brings to mind something I said the day after TW800 was lost, "Boeing 747's don't just fall out of the sky!" I was wrong. I agree that the search is probably not covering the right place. It's a big ocean. But it is premature to devalue the potential for a hull loss due to aircraft systems failure. To hold otherwise, to me, smacks of hubris.

Respectfully, it is not time to speculate. I will patiently await developments.

Thanks for your thoughts Frank. I still believe TWA800 was shot down. But that's another story. I do believe we should not speculate, but as the days click by if the "what ifs" can help them look in another direction, I'm all for it. I just want that plane found so we know. Thanks so much for your comment.

After 9/11, the number one question in my mind at this point would be did any of the passengers that were actually on that aircraft (once the various intelligence agencies reconcile passports with the security films and other evidence) attend flight school? If they did, that would bolster your theory.

Yes! And I know they will find it. Thank you so much for your comment. We are supposed to not speculate. But I'm of the school of thought...get involved if there is a chance to help. I'm all about that. Thank you so much!

I think that you are correct. When the USair jet ingested the birds and lost both engines, the flight crew hand flew the plane through congested airspace over heavily populated areas and still were able to have multiple conversations with ATC. Thus if MH370 had technical issues why didn't they get a MAYDAY out as you suggest. As to where they were heading to if under direction of a terrorist, the Malaysian CEO stated the night of the incident, that at the time it disappeared, it had 7.5 hours of fuel left.

My question exactly. When we ask "why didn't they communicate?" The only answer was...they couldn't. That 7.5 hours of fuel is a good indicator. Depending if, and when, the Captain became a hero... there lays the question.

How do you hide 239 people? The two guys from Iran who stole pasports from tourist from Austria in order too get too Europe? How would they even get past immigration? I think the high tech who run the almighty telescope saw what happen and cant believe it. Why hasnt American flights been cancelled. American embasys put on lock down in those areas. The exports have answers. They're waiting.....again....how do you hide 239 people.

You don't hide 239 people. That's the sad thing. There were so many errors in this. Anyone buying a one way ticket with cash is the first red flag. Hopefully they will learn from this. I can't believe it either. Even if this has nothing to do with the disappearance, it has everything to do with a HUGE security breach. Thanks for your comment!

Oh, yes, a one-way ticket should be and is a red flag in some places, as are short trips. I went to France several months after 9-11 during our school's spring break (six days). While in line in Houston upon my return I heard a voice say, "That was a short trip." It was the pilot in line across the hall. I explained that I had to go back to work; almost immediately I was called into the "special room" and my luggage was searched, no problem for me because I want air travel to be safe. Why weren't those guys' phony passports identified? I'm with you- I think the plane was deliberately nose-dived into the ocean.

I think anyone who has an interest should read 'Frist Strike' about TWA Flight 800. I worked on 747's for years, and the fuel tank thing is a crock. Everyone should read that book to realize there was a cover up...question is 'Why?'

As far as this crash...something doesn't pass the smell test. This had to be a man made event. My question is I am not familiar with the location of the emergency transponder and battery location on the 777. Is it accessible in flight to disconnect? I would think that would be in the tail, in a non-pressurized location., with no chance to disconnect it.

Tim, I agree on that crock too. I have not read first strike, but I will Thanks for the heads up. I'm not sure where the location is on the 777 of anything is. But I can find out. I think they do have access to all the elect equip.Thanks for the comment.

I also agree that the feul tank explanation was a crock. Problem is, after the military screwed up and shot down Iran Air Flight 655, Im pretty sure certain Marine programs will be shut down if they had to admit they screwed up again with friendly fire. But the govt cant shut down section of the military that is so imbedded in politicians making money. So politics will continue to cover up that one, and any other friendly fire on civilian planes..

I had the same feeling about MH370. B777 is a living legend as an aircraft. To say the captain is a great aviator would be a major understatement. SOMETHING HAS TO HAPPEN FOR IT TO DISAPPEAR WITHOUT A TRACE.

I'm also disturbed by the news from China. About 20 relatives of passengers onboard, as well as some crewmembers' family tried calling their cell phone. Many of them were ringing before going to voice mail.

Great article, Capt. Karlene.I hope to meet you in DTW or SEA when I work the gates :)

Thank you so much for the comment. And this gives me the chills to think the phones were ringing. How sad. Could you imagine calling a loved one and having the phone ring ... that moment of hope. Hope to meet you too!! One day that shall happen.

If I could just jump in here...(one of many replied here where people have misunderstood the ringing phones)...the sound you hear on your phone when you place a call is NOT the sound of the other phone ringing. What you hear is called the "ring back" signal (this was true even of the old copper land lines) and is not connected to any ringing that might (or might not) be taking place on the receiver's end (Have you ever had the experience of calling someone and they pick up the phone, surprised to find someone already there and claiming "But my phone never rang"? That's because you heard a ring back signal but they picked up their phone in the "gap" between rings of their phone before the first ring could occur.) For cell phones, the ring back signal is the sound of your phone searching to make the connection to the phone you are calling. That phone could even be turned off and you could conceivably hear the ring back until the system gave up its attempt to connect.

I find it quite disturbing that you do not give any credence to the theories of alien abduction or a real live LOST scenario. The tin foil hat crowd is very disappointed.

Have you thought about them hauling hazardous cargo that somehow ignited. According to your map, a hard left turn puts them within gliding distance to Vietnam. An on board fire makes a pilot find land, fast. It can burn cables and radios and according to the standard at my company 14 minutes later the wing falls off. In 14 minutes , traveling at Vno I bet a 777 can go a long way off course. In the SIM, we are usually 100 miles away from a runway when we get the fire bell.

At work, I am not concerned about the known/declared hazardous cargo because I know the HAZ people separate everything and it is in a special can connected to some fire hoses.

We are all afraid of the un-declared HAZ that is packed with the overnight letters. I know all the passenger jets are now carrying at lot of cargo because it pays very well.

That may or may not be true but it might be a subject for a future book. Just saying, of course alien abduction would expose you to a entire new audience as well.

I had not thought of this because if a fire begins in the cargo compartment, the warnings would begin. The fire fought. Contact made. This is not something a pilot would silently turn to return without notifying someone. But... you never know. This is one thing we won't find out until the end of the day.

If that was the case, the fire alarm would be one of the first things going via SATCOM/ACARS to the airline ops center. It was a clear night in an area full of fishing vessels. Someone would have seen it.

I would totally agree with your theory, Karlene. As you are also a pilot, we understand how a pilot might think during times of crisis like the one which is speculated. The pilot must have done his best job to avoid any. And I believe we're not searching in the right place for sure! Moreover it is not necessary that only people with fake passports would do such acts of hijacking the plane. When they have come there to perish along with the others in destroying something, their identity doesnt matter to them!

Thank you so much for the comment. Yes, this does hit us. I often wonder what if it were my flight. I would do everything possible no matter what happened. But this definitely reinforces the need of one pilot to send a message. Which we all know. We want to be found if we're going down for whatever reason.

Interesting blog, Karlene. I would speculate that there is a much better target much closer than Sydney at the end of the Malay peninsula that terrorists of a certain persuasion may prefer. It would surprise me that they would choose the Malay flag carrier as their vehicle of choice, though. Whatever it is, I hope they can locate them soon to bring some closure to the families of those on the flight.

Wouldnt surprise me Australia has an issue with terrorism groups in sth east asia. Also australia has a hard stance on illegal boat people who go to indonesia and oay 10k to get on a rickety boat they tear up their passports and documentation and claim refugee status. The current AU government has implemented strong anti illegal boat people policy and majority are from iran and other middle eastern or African countries... it may be a foiled attack to protest against the people smuggling policy... there are US military bases in the north of australia that would have detected something if sydney was the target or if the planr was in the area....

Karlene, by now you've probably seen the latest on CNN/other outlets regarding the plane being last spotted on radar hundreds of miles off course, in the opposite direction they should've been going. Thoughts on this? Seems to support your theory.

Karlene, having read the plethora of responses above, there are so many possibilities. One point that some made above is the lack of communication. I can't help to think of the prologue in "Flight For Control" were Captain Grant Madden didn't speak the entire time when the events were taking place. These are two totally different situations (I hope) however, there is only one thing to do: sit and wait. There are two things however, that do come to mind: A) God only knows. Literally. and B) There is also a saying that bad times bring great outcomes. I am hoping that this will be one of those times. If not, the outcome will be that we will learn from this new experience to obliterate any repetition of it happening ever again.

My continued thoughts and prayers to the families of the passengers and crew who, more than all of us, are still waiting answers, and now.

Jeremy, Thank you so much for the comment. Yes... Bill was silent. I'm thinking my novels are becoming too close to reality. Something good must come from this. And you said it... God only knows. I hope we find out soon and can begin moving forward.

All this speculation in the absence of facts seems insanely irresponsible. Remember that poor missing kid who was wrongly identified as one of the Boston Marathon bombers? His family went through hell at the hands of an internet lynch mob, on top of everything else. I know in this age of immediate gratification, people have forgotten that we can't always know everything all the time, but let's not compound the tragedy with our ignorant babble.

I don't think there is anything irresponsible by trouble shooting a possibility. The media is asking for help. Nobody knows. If we can all come up with thoughts, someone might hit the right one and point the search in the right direction.

Plus, this dialogue helps people deal with the situation. There is not a downside to open discussion.

I think your phrase "..if it looks like a duck and quacks.." says it best. I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist but there are too many holes in this story for me to think it was anything other than hijacking. And now having been several days afterward, one would expect a lot of debris would be being found by fishermen and other small craft if there was a wreck. 777 is a VERY solid plane with a lot of redundant systems. Rapid/Explosive decompression is something that could be survived (and is something that crews train for). Very suspicious especially given the time.

What I do find strange is having flown this track many times myself, the countries around there get quite cranky and wouldn't hesitate to intercept an aircraft illegally in their airspace (especially one with its transponder off).

Hey karlene this is a well thought logical argument given the limitations of facts and evidence that has been disclosed. Sth east asia is also a hot spot for terrorism and illegal people smuggling. My theory was a bit similar to yours. I hve this hope maybe everyone is alive and the plane was sabotaged and flown off radar to another location as outlandish as it seems. The people were possibly taken as hostages and had electronic devices taken off them. The plane if it did not breakup is being kept for a 9/11 style attack. Then again the oilot nay have nosedived the plane, I have a relative who is a commercial pilot and recall asking him how would he react if in a terrorist hijack scenario - (this was after 9/11) he said hed take the plane down and perish 200 or so people than actually be made to fly it into a building...

I like your other theory they are all safe somewhere. And the point your relative made... I don't think you will find a pilot today who will not do the same thing. I hope we find out soon! Thanks so much for the comment!

The possibility that a hostage situation is presently occurring and is being kept quiet should be considered. Three reasons why this might happen are:

1) one of the hostages is high profile.

2) fearing a 9/11 scenario officials want to reserve the option of destroying the plane (without the media circus and trauma to the relatives). If the plane has been flown to a quiet airstrip in the india ocean, I would expect it won't be allowed to leave in case it has been loaded with a dirty bomb, anthrax, or some other evil.

3) the hijackers want publicity, so they are not getting it.

But consider the information we have and you decide:

1) passengers cell phones ringing days after2) change of direction3) no communication with flight crew4) transponder stopped5) flight path after transponder is stopped is only now being made public - from primary radar6) no wreckage7) no accounts of an explosion

If there was a problem mechanical wise I don't see a captain turning around. They were approaching land and could've requested emergency landing at nearest airport for that 777 to land. The u turn makes me believe that something happened in the cockpit and the plane was taken by hijackers. Perhaps were looking at another United 93 scenario with passengers trying to take plane back?

Hi Karlene, this accident is also different from Air France 447 because it is a Boeing. The pilots would have known they were in a stall immediately whereas the Air France crews expected the fly by wire to kick in for them. The Air France crew back then were also not trained to do stall recovery on the Airbuses because they were not required.

Also I need some insights as to how the radar and transponder works. Is it that simple to just turn off the transponder and the whole plane disappears from all the radars? The Air france 447 send millions of failures to Air France headquarters before it crashed so to me, unless the airplane were into pieces (cutting all the power and communications), there should be a way to find where this aircraft is. In addition, even if transponder is off, I feel like the ATC somewhere would detect an unidentified flying object on their radar. Even the flight recorder, I thought they emit distress signals when something bad happens.

Lastly, I seriously think they need to calculate closely how the current have affected the debris if it did crashed into the ocean. When it crashed, if it nosed dive at a very fast speed, I bet the debris are very small and over a smaller area, with the current, the small debris would be difficult to spot, especially after so many days.

Martin, Yes... they could turn off the transponder and go invisible if the radar coverage wasn't good. But the military could see them. When there is a problem with the plane, messages go back... but if the plane was good, there would be no malfunctions sent. And yes...they are very good with the currents during these searches. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

Karlene is most likely correct. There will not be a happy ending. No debris field in the water. Turn to the land to search. Either the bridge was compromised by intruders or as with the Egyptian flight from several years ago, there was a pilot or co-pilot with a death-wish.

Looking for some help understanding how primary radar works. In order for the system to be effective, an operator needs to watch the radar live, correct? Do these primary systems offer a recording device in order to go back and review? The reason I am inquiring is because the Malaysian Air Force claims they tracked MH370 via their primary system from the last known location to over Malacca Strait, approximately about 70mins...~500mi? Would they not have sent escort jets up at this point, as it seems pretty clear that knew right away it deviated from course. Also, if the radar in question is not recorded, they have no points of reference from when they said Sunday, "it may have turned around" to confirming today it did in fact make the "u-turn." What changed? Thanks for the read and I have very much enjoyed your writing and website.

This is a great comment Adam. Escorts are not sent out unless distress signal is sent. There are times planes really do go off radar for awhile. They know we're there because we send position reports. The interesting this is that the military was watching the radar and saw them turn. They had no reason to question the flight path of the plane. I suspect they looked at their data after the fact and said, "oh...it did turn." Why it took them so long is the question. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment... good thoughts!

Makes sense to me that they wouldn't take credit for a failed attempt.

I have been thinking that it was a hijacking from he beginning, but have had it in my head that if the flight deck was being compromised, they should have had time to radio something ... anything. Maybe a "crap we're trouble" but I suppose if it was swift enough, they might not have had time. Also wondering about the possibilities of someone doing a high tech hack or jam to block the comms? Then they'd have time to breach cockpit & turn off the transponder. As I researched the France flight that went down, I have to say, all I could think of was that they knew they were going down... how long would it take to drop from 35,000 feet into an ocean? 2, 3 minutes? All the while, they know they're falling, helplessly, out of the sky. That's why this story has got me completely obsessed and why I keep refining my speculations. So... considering the turn around, and then the fact that it went off course toward the Malacca Straights, then what target might be in that general direction or trajectory?

Back to other hijacking theory... who could the target be? I considered the fact that there were many people from a high-tech company on board. That company is known to do work for militaries, etc. Presumably secret high tech projects. I posit the possibility that perhaps they had some sort of technology on board and that this tech was the target or the employees for their inside knowledge possibly?

I also firmly believe that once the "t" word is used, authorities go on information lockdown, and that they probably know a great deal more than they're telling the public & media. Terrorism is a very powerful word, and would garner intense multi-country support to find answers as quickly as possible in order to prevent the next possible attack.

It's killing me not to know... and when I try to think about something else, I remember the France flight again, and imagine their last moments, and I'm right back at the computer checking for answers again.

Laurie, you got it. And the lack of information could be because of that t word probability. Yes.. that AF flight was scary. You should read my novel, Flight For Safety. You will go inside that flight and experience what happened. The final words on the recorder are chilling.

This is killing everyone. But I think talking about it helps. I hope we find out soon! Thanks so much for the comment!

It certainly seems like an interesting theory. Since I know about as much about aviation as a fish knows about the moon it could very well be true. I have a couple of questions about the accident though.

If a pilot sets the transponder to 7500, as they should for a hijacking, and then turned it off without setting it back to its normal number (squawk?). Would it continue sending out a signal even after being turned off as a safe guard since it was last on an emergency setting?

Also does the change of course that they are now revealing support the theory of the flight deck being compromised? Again I don't want to make it seem like I'm butchering your theory I just don't know enough to say its right or wrong.

2 people controlling 230 people seems like a tough thing to do. They would need to have a lot of high ammunition weapons which probably is not the case due to level of screening in today's airports. Plus desperate times call for desperate measures, at some point many people could have came up with a plan to tackle the said terrorists. Plus to get cellphones from every person on the plane would be very time consuming process for two people or even 4 people. There would have been at least one person with a cell phone to try to call for help or reach out. Plus there would have been a huge language barrier because most of the people on the plane are chinese speaking. So getting everyone to understand everything at the same time would be tough....

Well I hope someone has searched every inch of Somalia with spy from the sky. IF the plane did land it would have to have been in some lawless place that was within range. I'm sure if it occurred to me it must have to others.

The facts that there's no debris, no signs of an explosion, and cell-phones that are still ringing all points to the only possible scenario--the plane landed safely but all (or all save for the hi-jackers) are dead. While the deaths of all of these innocent passengers is certainly horrific, I think the outcome of this scenario could be even worse.

If one accepts this scenario, then one must ask why was the plane hi-jacked? It does not seem to be an act of terrorism, at least in the way that we currently know it. One possible explanation is that the entire plane was subjected to a deadly airborne chemical or even a fast-acting biological agent that instantly killed everyone who wasn't wearing a gas mask (including the cockpit crew). If none of the cockpit crew were involved in this heist, I'm wondering how long it would take for a person or persons outside of the cabin to break down the door and take over control of the plane. My guess is not long, especially if you came prepared for it.

So, why did they do this? It could be for many reasons but several spring to mind. One could be that they wanted something in or on the plane--something in the cargo bay or hidden elsewhere on the plane. Or, it could be that they just wanted one person on the flight--and they wanted him or her alive.

Another more sinister reason is that this heist could be a dry-run for a larger operation, perhaps involving a chemical or biological weapon. Of course, all of this is pure speculation and without any hard facts we'll never know the truth. It was reported that 5 people signed in for the flight but didn't get on the plane. That in itself is very suspicious. I think that everyone on that flight, including the flight crew, should be investigated because I do think that the guilty party or parties are among them.

I pray that we find the plane and we're told the truth about its disappearance.

There are so many theories we could come up with... but the reality is... chemicals or a biological agent could turn the transponder off, and turn the plane. That's the mystery. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

I'm no expert, so I'll concede to you on that, but a couple of things don't add up for me. If this is true:

1) Why didn't the hijackers take over the plane themselves, to make sure they hit their target? If they couldn't fly it themselves, that would be a pretty amateur attempt. And...

2) Why didn't any of the passengers contact anyone? I think we can assume that a takeover of the cockpit would have created enough noise to alert the passengers, especially in today's nervous world of travel. Not even a single mobile call from any of them? On 911, even (at least) one airline attendant managed to call for help.

They've confirmed that the holders of the passports are young asylum seekers - which doesn't mean they can't also be hijackers, but it makes the likelihood of them being part of some sort of terrorism ring a little less likely.

With the latest news that military radar got them going West, once they got over ocean whoever was piloting the plane (I think the co-pilot at that point based on the other plane pilot saying he spoke to the copilot) was instructed to fly close to the water to avoid detection. The amount of fuel they had could have gotten them to Pakistan further West.

Thank you for speaking up! Thank you for so clearly outlining your thinking on this. It's more important to express what conclusions we're each coming to (particularly one who is informed, like you) than to stay in silence for fear of being wrong. If we need a hundred theories to find the plane with one right theory, bring on one hundred theories. I agree - we just need to find the plane. It's not about being right, it's about trying, looking, and keeping our minds open. Thank you, again.

Thanks so much for your confidence. I think too many people stay quiet and then wish they would have. I would rather be wrong than be right and afraid to speak up. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

I have a very unlikely speculation of my own. Maybe just me. I had been following the news the most experts mentioned the sudden explosion or mid-flight dis-integration of the plane. Isn't it possible to be hit by a meteor? There had been an increased presence of asteroids lately, most famously, in 2012 in Russia. It caught everyone by surprised. But the probability of a plane being hit by a meteor might be close to zero but if its flying over 35,000 feet above ground, the probability might have increased. Just my thoughts.

RE: "The Boeing 777 is a solid, stable, aircraft that will not fall out of the sky for anything short of a man made catastrophic event, meaning.... explosives."

What about the FAA airworthiness directive (AD) that states:

"We are adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for certain The Boeing Company Model 777 airplanes. This AD was prompted by a report of cracking in the fuselage skin underneath the satellite communication (SATCOM) antenna adapter. This AD requires repetitive inspections of the visible fuselage skin and doubler if installed, for cracking, corrosion, and any indication of contact of a certain fastener to a bonding jumper, and repair if necessary. We are issuing this AD to detect and correct cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, which could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the airplane."

Even cracking and corrosion would not make a Boeing 777 fall out of the sky. But they would have made a direct route back to a runway...So this may be the case, I lost a huge panel off the wing of my 747 once. We could see into the fuel tank and see the bladder. She flew to Tokyo. Hawiian Airlines and Mimi Thompson flew her Boeing after a hole was ripped in the side. So just my opinion, but I don't think the AD took them out. But excellent information. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

First of all I wonder why there are 5 people checking in the flight and their baggage but diddnt board.Who are these people and why they didnt go on board.The question still stands if the baggage of this people wasnt removed against all rules and MH370 was later informed and called back to Penang airport to remove the baggage.Would explain why the pilot was told to cut off his tracking of position to cover it up.Maybe it was too late to reach an airport and a bomb exploded.Maybe this isnt true and the pilot lost suddenly all his electronic,comunication and tracking power through a mechanical failure. What would the pilot do. Turn back to a well known area searching for an airport or any possibility for an emergency landing.Could he have landed the plane on Malacca Straight without great damage?? The plane just sank to ground,so no debris maybe some people survived swimming in the sea ??

This is interesting. Would he be more obvious vanishing off radar or just making a divert? This could be...but why the stealth behavior? Unaccompanied luggage is a huge concern. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

today on the press conference suddenly they told the press that those 5 people were on board.Thats dodgy.They know nobody can verify this anymore.They told us the baggage was removed but if the people were on board this was a lie.So the question is pax and baggage on boardor not,why the lie on saturday ?Are this 5 people checked by Interpol as they were not passengers on Saturday but suddenly on wednesday

Not sure if anyone else has brought up the point, but I'm from the area and I can tell you that there really aren't any worthy targets around that location... Sure if you consider the amount of fuel it has it could fly pretty far but logistics suggest that you would hijack a plane much closer to your intended target.

Secondly, even if they DID hijack the plane, out of 239 passengers, not even one of them turned on their phone in secret to send a final goodbye message to their loved ones? If as family members claim that phones were ringing, you would expect that at some point someone on the ground would have received a message.

Excellent point. But the phone theory, passengers don't know what's happening in the flight deck. They also to know if the plane slowly turned in the night. Pretty dark out there. Great thoughts. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

Great blog and comments. It's good to hear from so many knowledgeable people.However, I don't buy the idea that terrorists would see this as a failure, even if they'd had their eye on a bigger target. Taking down an international flight could hardly be considered as lacking in international significance. And we'd be none the wiser of their original plan, so why not claim the 'glory'?It seems far more plausible that there's a hostage suituation being played out somewhere, away from the glare of the media.

That's an interesting theory. And one that could be explained if there were people, or a person, that could pay a large ransom. Then they would have to know how to fly. And have a secret airport. I say, never say never. I hope we find out soon! Thanks for the comment!

My only problem with this otherwise strong theory is it was the middle of the night. A terrorist would surely want to cause death and destruction in the day during peak work/trading hours and when they'd get maximum coverage, so book a morning flight. For this reason, I would say if it was a terrorist organisation behind this, they had some other goal involving hostage taking.

I find it exceptionally frustrating that despite accounts of partial cell phone connections and calls from the plane that cell tower logs apparently are not being checked. Even a failed connection will involve a "ping" to the tower which the tower will record. Nations around the area need to be examining tower logs for pings from any phones that belonged to passengers. This might give a good idea of the final flight path.

Very intriguing, Karlene thanks for the post. One thing I'm still curious about (though I haven't had time to search through all of the comments so far to see if it's already been covered) is the report that passengers' mobile phones were ringing through. One was even supposedly proven live to media.

I wondering what your thoughts are on this (whether you have any information regarding the truthfulness of these claims).

If true, then I am led to think the plane cannot be under water. More likely it has landed or crashed on land and phones survived the impact in pockets or what not.

Adam, my thoughts on that gave me a chill. Could you imagine the hope they received when the phones rang? The hope they would answer? From what I heard, this could be normal even if they were off. So many questions. I hope we know soon! Thanks for the comment!

It would be awful experiencing that kind of hope then being let down. Especially with the frustration that the authorities seem not to be acknowledging their wishes for phones to be tracked. Even a comment from the authorities such as "we acknowledge that phones have been ringing however we know from the phone companies that this is possible even if the phones are off" would go a long way to help. The lack of straight and definitive answers is a huge concern.

I would just like to say that this is one of the strangest news story's ever. The press reports change two or three times a day. The fact that passports are not checked with Interpol in this part of the world is frightening. One reason for it and I quote "protection of their black market businesses". I have to believe that the international authorities have an idea and are not sharing much information with the press or continually messing with the information to keep the press occupied. My theory is this plane is somewhere on dry land and it is Terrorism. I wont be going to that part of the world until they get their security act together

Thank you Karlene for this wonderful post - great thoughts here. But more, great heart here - and from many commenters, too.

When the news first broke, things just didn't add up.

In the initial hours I thought it could be a number of things.

Hijacked was top.

It still is.

Based on info then, even now, here is why:

1) Timeline changes. First it was 1:30 am last contact. Then it was 2:40 am. Then it was 1:30, then 2:40, now unsure.

2) No debris, and now maybe west coast - sharp turn, then deviation from route, another 500 miles or so

3) Veteran - this pilot was well aware of his terrain and likely knew of emergency landing locations

The authorities there knew about the military radar reading in initial hours. Yet, many in Beijing heard first from media what was happening. So why the delay? Why the contradiction? Why the focus on east coast when the military radar said west? Why 5 days for focus on 2:40 am reading?

IF there was a hijiacking and there was a chance for authorities to save the passengers, then it makes sense to either heed demands, or don't threaten perpetrators into a hostile reaction. And by diverting attention, hijackers may take less aggressive action.

Excellent thoughts, Karlene! I hadn't really thought of it from that angle yet. The bit about all electronic signatures being turned off certainly points to someone who knows what they're doing. Thanks for sharing! Eric

Perhaps an off-the-wall question: If the pilot was forced to turn off all transponder/tracking equipment and then fly the plane somewhere...could it have landed and still not be located after four days?

If it was night time, most passengers would be asleep/relaxing, especially on a long flight; no? And if it was dark and over the ocean, they would probably not expect to have cell service for some time, nor see lights/detect any major change if there was a gradual turn-if they passed back over Malaysia they could have thought the land mass to be Thailand at that point. What I don't understand is why-if there was at least 7.5 hrs left of fuel at reported time of missing (if this is correct, as the Malaysian officials keep changing when actually missing, they may have had more fuel) have they not taken a protractor and drawn a circle around wherever the plane could potentially have flown to-potentially even Middle East, Korea, China, etc; by the time the plane was out of the small radius they were looking, if hijacked it could have landed, refueled, etc... Look at the range of the Boeing model. The fact of no pieces/debris and Malaysian officials caught lying about the last signals of the plane (apparently they've known for quite some time the last signals came from Strait of Malacca but sent every country on a wild goose chase-it seems like a cover up. Perhaps its been shot down, perhaps its landed somewhere at an unused air field (i.e. Malikus Saleh Airport), or crashed-either way I think that they do know a lot (and if its crashed even the location, but want to process it before even telling other countries). The Malaysians have contradicted themselves so many times with passenger info, and last night saying they don't consider pilot error or mechanical issues concerns in the investigation, but are investigating things such as if a passenger/crew member had taken out a large life insurance policy? How ridiculous; investigate where the plane is. China seems to be lending little support compared to how close it is and the large % of passengers it made up on the plane. The Chinese officials have not been supportive to family in helping track cell phones that were connecting; they claimed to have tried one number to call and it didn't connect; they should be attempting to track every single number regardless of connection for last GPS signal if able. Especially since new info suggests they may have flown over land a lot closer to the end of the last known location of this flight...Malaysian officials seem to be looking in the wrong place on purpose...something sure is fishy when they suggest personal and psychological issues with the crew and passengers as 2 of the 4 reasons....Seems they have either found the plane, or are covering up a larger situation that they know they will get backlash from. But taking a protractor, drawing a circle from KLIA with the range of that airplane; its certainly not good. Especially since they were essentially not in our screening crossfires once they left the immediate area. They also havn't mentioned if the pilot/co-pilot have flown together before/how frequently...this may be important.

Your theory makes a lot of sense after all the tallest remaining twin towers in the world are in Kuala Lumpur. I think the the stolen passport theory is a misleading trail to follow. Living in Asia I know stolen and forged passports can be purchased quite easily. I bet it is very common to for people to fly with phony passports. Three questions.

1-An early report said the plane Landed in Nanning, China. I accept the that it did not land in Nanning but I want to know who said it did land and why they thought it did.2- A Pilot flying to Norita and ahead of MH370 was ask by Vietnamese air traffic control to make radio contact with MH370. They established contact and it was after 1:30 AM. The captain making contact asked to remain anonymous. Why ask to be anonymous? I am sure we can figure out who was nearby and flying to Norita at 1:30 AM.3-saw a printed chart and then a video on YouTube showing MH130 exiting Vietnam and disappearing over water on the way to China. Are charts being doctored to fool us and why?

This is all fascinating stuff. I had no idea on the ease of passports down there. And the mystery continues. I suspect the truth will prevail soon. I hope they are not doctoring charts. I believe not. We'll have to go that nobody knows. And soon we will. Thanks for the comment!

Sorry if a double post--thank you for giving a plausible theory.What are the chances the hijacker/terrorist was a crew member? I cannot imagine that no one noticed that someone made his/her way into the cabin. If it wasn't a crew member, It would be interesting to no who was in first class.Also, while it may be possible it was in a dead cell phone area, I find it very odd no cell calls were made by the passengers if it was a hijacking.

I share the same sentiment, however when I look at the photos of the 2 "iranians" somehow mossad came to my mind, the hallmarks are there, if that's true, then there could be a major disaster coming soon and most likely to be a false flag. And the hype and speculations going around by both the media and everyone watching and listening, this is becoming eerily like a reality series event.

Is it possible for the aircraft to be controlled by a terrorist group on land, by hacking into the GPS? I just heard that the plane turned around but it was now being directed on a new trajectory. It was still on autopilot. So can a plane be taken over by some sort of hacking situation?

Doubtful it's a kidnapping because how would they control the passengers ? You can't do that post 9/11, and even on 9/11 it didn't work on the last flight.

I'm guessing a massive electronic failure related to software, or decompression relating to the AD on the fuselage. Hypoxia can cause people to do unpredictable things and whatever the truth it is a rare event.

I don't think kidnapping either. If they wanted to the plane, they didn't want the passengers. When there is a decompression, pilots get a warning and put on their masks. Electronic failure, they could turn on the ELT. Thanks for the comment!

Another possibility is the Chinese military is involved. China claims airspace all the south to Malaysia. Military jets could have created turbulence which caused the plane to fall out of the sky in the South China Sea. Or Chinese military jets could have shot it down in the South China Sea..

Someone, possibly a passenger's mother,father, friend, business associate, aspiring college theatre major, or escapee from the fun house who was in "communication with a passenger via phone or computer" is going to pop-up soon.............oh yeah!

Air Force chief has confirmed that the military did NOT have the plane turning back on the track to Pulau Perak. That was a mistake, story from a Journalist of one of the papers. Never mind that it led to the SAR flights running up and down the Malacca straits, one of the planes even carried the Minister of Transport and Defense!

Anyway, I agree with everything you have written above Karlene. Completely. As I tweeted yesterday, everyone is on a wild goose chase, looking in the wrong direction and Vietnam therefore halted its SAR flights saying that they are now waiting for directions from the Malaysians! Crazy stuff.

1. a terrorist splinter cell normaly exists of 4 or 5 people.2. the 5 people that did not board could be a back-up cell. 3. Plane was hijacked by group of 5 ?4. by releasing a certain gas to put everyone asleep (or kill) ?5. the group of 5 had gasmasks.6. one of them must be a skilled pilot that can fly a 777 ? 7. they killed the beacon and changed route. 8. group has contact with authorities, but they keep it quiet9. plane could fly some 5000km below radar?10. could be as far as Iran ??

or

1. all electronics went down (fire ??)2. pilot decides to fly to nearest airport where he can land...3. this could be Langkawi International Airport Malysia4. no fresh oxygene, only smoke ? (fire)4. for some reason it was not possible to land??5. if you fly low, over land, you could easy communicate with a mobile phone ?5. impossible that nobody noticed this...

1. The plane is safe along with the crew/pax2. Now sits in Diego Garcia, good place to hide3. The flight was escorted by USAF Jammer when transponder was turned off4. Link this matter with UN Nuclear Ban Organisation who had requested nuclear experts to join the investigation5. Governments need time to investigate the plot and discuss how it is going to be revealed

- "There is no reason for someone to blow this plane up, unless there was a target on board."When was the last time an aircraft was blown out of the sky to specifically target someone on board? Off the top of my head, I can't recall any.There are plenty of other reasons to blow up an aircraft. That said, I do agree it's (currently) unlikely in this case - but only because of lacking scattered debris field.

- Not an AF447 event because "The Captain was experienced, and knew how to fly."Are you saying the captain of AF447 did not know how to fly? The captain of AF447 was not pilot in command. If I recall, it was the FO with the least experience. Yet you're basically insinuating the captain of AF447 was incompetent. And how do you know who was at the controls of MH370? I believe the FO on MH370 had even less experience than either of the FOs on AF447.

- "Anyone who has the elaborate simulator system in their house that he did, was not flying it on the autopilot. He was keeping his flying skills alive as an aviation geek."This is rather bizarre. Are you saying he would typically hand-fly an aircraft all the way to its destination? If I'm not mistaken, SOP at many carriers call for the engagement of autopilot at this stage of flight. Your comment may be more accurate during takeoff and landing. Again, we don't even know who was at the controls and who assigned to fly the departure.

Hong Kong as a potential target? They would have arrived at their target very early morning - and flown it into (essentially) an empty building? That doesn't make sense. Singapore is even more improbable.

That said, I don't necessarily disagree with your theory - just with some of the above 'facts' you've used to reach your conclusion.

I agree with your assessment that the probability of a hijack is high, except that the hijacking here is not physical rather electronic. Meaning, somebody "neutralized" the plane's electronic communication systems. There is current speculation about being able to do this not only to "silence" a plane but also to send misleading signals to radar. I am intrigued that on the passenger manifest there was a number of employees of a hitech company involved in this field, as reported. I am not suggesting a sinister motive rather that their field trial or experiment had gone wrong or that the pilot had reacted in a totally unexpected way.

Well written blog and wonderful discussion that followed. I fully agree that the situation like this demand so many "what - If's" questions to be raised and analyzed. After reading this, I am off to the bookstore to get your aviation thrillers :)

Shall we, for accuracy's sake, first of all accept (and thus rule out the possibility!) that the plane is not on the ground, at an airport? A plane is too big to hide, nothing to put inside your pocket or inside a garage! That leaves only the sea, it could only have come down at sea. As for debris, what is the possibility that the plane sank whole into the sea, and with its transponder off? Just my 2 cents' worth...