As anticipated, the 202 sat support finally gave way and we are headed to the mid 190s range. The RSI is entering the oversold range on the 4 hour chart so I do anticipate a bounce off the 193-195 sat range. But without much volume, I don’t know how high that bounce will actually be…maybe 202 where we will have stiff resistance now that we are under it.

Based on that chart it looks like it should go up. But I would bet on it going down.

Why? The downtrend line and the yellow moving average (I’m assuming that’s the 100 day?) are on top of each other which is A LOT more resistance than the blue 50 day support line can break through. Second, the volume is still slightly decreasing and the RSI is right in the middle, so it could literally go either way…but my bet is down to test the ascending support line again.

So…ETN did not bounce off the 193-195 range as I would have expected. It tried and is in the process of failing if we don’t recover to 193+ with the current candle. If it does not recover, we will be back under that downtrend resistance.

The good news is we have a pretty strong support line at 190 and the two lines are going to intersect in ~16 hours from this post. So whatever happens, I’m not expecting to be in the 190 range for long. The problem is the momentum is pushing us down. But the RSI is now in the extreme oversold territory so we should see a reversal.

EDIT: Right after posting, we jumped to 194 which puts us above the descending line. Let’s see if we can stay above it. I REALLY don’t want to see us dip under!

Edit 2: We’re bouncing up and are now at 196 sats with a green candle! We’re no longer extremely oversold, but we are at the very bottom of the neutral area on the RSI so we have plenty of room to grow. Let’s see if we can go back up and test the 200-202 line

That downward corridor motion is actually a bull flag (meaning it will most likely break up. Bear flags are an upward corridor that break down.

Your support lines don’t make any sense. The next three main supports based on history are at ~3600, ~3240 and ~2850.

3k is a psychological support and the real previous ATH before the 2017 run to 20k. 1221 was the ATH prior to 3k so there would naturally be some support at 3k.

The red line you are using for your measuring stick to the bottom, where did it come from? You can’t use a measure from one pattern and apply it to another. It doesn’t work like that.

Everyone and their brother is expecting a drop to 2500 to 3k. Very few expect it to go even lower than that which tells me there are A LOT of long buys in the 3k range. There are probably so many that we never actually get there. I have a hunch 3200 is the lowest we go based on the weekly and month long averages all hovering around the 3200 mark. It’s going to take A LOT of selling to break through that and I honestly don’t know who is left to sell at this point. Only whales could do it at this point because most if not all the panic sellers are gone.

I could always be wrong, but what you did on this chart is nothing short of confusing. None of it makes sense and your labeling is no where near accurate.

Here is my chart on the 4 hour for BTC with pattern measurements supporting the 3200 mark on a the pennant flag that has formed on the 1 hour chart.

The RSI is low right now so I am anticipating a move back up to test the resistance where we will most likely fail and fall. However, there is A LOT of support under us right now that will take a decent sized sell volume to break. I do believe it will probably break as we may see a red volume candle spike as we come back down from the resistance test.

How far will we likely fall? Using the penant measure method (it’s not an exact science so there is some variation in there) but you can see the top points of the measure stick labeled “1” and the bottoms labeled “2”. You measure the fall from the resistance and you will see it lands perfectly on the 3240 resistance line that I have and mentioned above.

Will it happen? No one really knows. Maybe we break the resistance on the way back up…maybe we don’t actually go back up and simply fall tonight. Regardless, this is a much more reasonable expectation based on actual TA methods. It’s possible we drop to 1221, but highly unlikely. We have A LOT of support to break before that can happen.

If it break the box i put up in a daily time frame it is most likly to break down. For me it now looks like a consilidation are and did not creat a clear flag and that was why i question markt it.

2 I will showe the TA in a bigger chart 1 week time frame and also check that you are compering the right charts from the right exchanges ther is some diferents. The lines i use are boxing in area of posible buy. the line is not perfect but average presision

3 3K level have no prior suport in the chart so i havent markt it, but i agree ther is prabply many buy orders in that area

4 the red line is the same length from wher we broke down to where we are now, that is why i used it and it matched whery good with us beeing half way down, and is a part of the bigger formation.

I have in earlier post pointet out 2500$ as expected turning point and 1200$ range as a absolut minimum BTC price. The labeling is not on the dollar but more like a point of about this range. We are in a tough down trend and the reaction that is forming is reaction and al the green candle have no volume to back up a bullish break out in an upwards direction.

You are using Coinbase chart and i use bitfenex so some different in prices.

okay yes…the charts will be a little different. I do use Coinbase over Bitfinex only because it is less prone to massive flash spikes and Coinbase is the gateway for more people around the globe.

I see where you are coming from, but none of it is based on true TA. Where are you getting the idea that we are only 50% through the drop? I’m confused on that assumption but I do understand your TA based on it…I just don’t understand why you are assuming that.

I believe any TA person you talk to will tell you we are at or near the bottom now. The TA (and comparison to the 2014 bear market) suggests we may see one more drop to the 3k range before entering an accumulation time period for the next bull run. But we have a lot of institutional events next month that may propel us into a bull run sooner rather than later.

Edit: This is my active zoomed out chart on the 1 day so you can see where I’m getting my sloping lines.