A premature case of green shoots?

Friday 5 June 2009 07:22 BST

Defending Gordon: Lord Mandelson

Green shoots in the housing market? Don't bet on it, says Nick Hopkinson of Property Portfolio Rescue. "The blazing headline statistics from Halifax indicate that the property market is booming at first glance," he says, of figures showing prices rose 2.6% last month. "While this may be great PR for the now mainly public-owned bank, unfortunately this is not correct. House sales volumes remain at an all-time low, making trend analysis of monthly data from just one lender statistically meaningless." Doesn't sound like househunters have missed the boat just yet.

Hopkinson is too diplomatic to spell out Halifax's own record on property. Its Bank of Scotland corporate lending division has had to write down at least £7 billion. New HBOS owner Lloyd's faces more tricky questions about that at today's annual general meeting in Scotland. Oh dear.

Now Hutton can get back to Barrow

John Hutton, who quit as Defence Secretary today, is well-regarded in the City after running the Departments of Business and Work and Pensions.

Some thought he was a dark horse to be Labour leader but he apparently plans to step down as an MP. Hutton has come out of the expenses row better than some colleagues. Indeed, he has handed over all his spending details between 2005 and 2008 to his local Barrow-in-Furness paper. The North West Evening Mail criticised him for spending cash on advertising hoardings at those sporting giants Barrow Raiders and Barrow AFC. But while he had homes in London and Barrow, his office pointed out he made zero claims for hotel stays, maintenance, repairs or security. He did flip the designation of his primary home twice. In 2005, he switched from London to Barrow to "spend more time in his constituency" — of course he did. Then Hutton reverted to London as his main home last year, because his job at Defence required it. How could anyone ever want to spend less time in Barrow?

* Are the programme-makers at Endemol's Big Brother influenced by their sponsors? Last year's celebrity version of the Channel 4 show was backed by bed retailer Dreams. But it's all change now as Big Brother 10 started last night with a new sponsor, Lucozade — and contestants weren't offered any beds at all. City Spy trusts this was not a dig at Dreams. But presumably it does show Lucozade negates the need for sleep...

SocGen analyst is in agony

News from the Sage of Societe Generale, famed equity strategist Albert Edwards. "I wasn't going to write this week," writes Edwards in his weekly note. "As I am sure you know, most accidents happen in the home and washing dishes is dangerous. The font of all my weeklies, my index finger, suffered a major injury. After doing the washing-up, I failed to spot the large shard of broken glass lying in wait. I found it when trying to force some homeless peas down the plug hole."

But things are even worse. Edwards continues: "Tapping out the weekly with my index finger is doubly painful this week. As well as the physical laceration, I have to report that one of the most reliable indicators of an equity bull market, the Coppock Indicator, has just delivered a massive equity buy signal. Of course, this would not be a problem if I were not still underweight equities."

* Here's an American twist on the General Motors story. After the country's largest carmaker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection earlier this week, its latest advertisements suggest that the company didn't really go out of business. It was "about getting down to business" apparently. And all that nonsense about chapter 11? According to GM's adverts, "the only chapter we're focused on is the first chapter." Hmm.

* Funny that, among all the gnashing of teeth over the ever-more-likely demise of LDV, few commentators have been brave enough to admit that its vans aren't much cop. White van men repeatedly call phone-in radio programmes and respond to internet news sites with their disparaging comments, mostly about how uncomfortable LDVs are, every time the latest dismal news about them appear.

Mandy's spin gets twisted

Business Secretary Lord Mandelson has been doing his silky best in the last 48 hours to reassure the financial world that everything is going to be OK and the political meltdown at Westminster is not going to damage the fightback against recession. Alas in this interview with business channel CNBC outside the Houses of Parliament, a passing bus advertising hoarding suggested the King of Spin's message might have been a little, er, twisted.

* FASHION is a fickle business. Italian designer Roberto Cavalli is to sell a stake in his fashion label to private-equity firm Clessidra SGR. This is the same Cavalli who last week said: "I'm not so sure I want to sell in the end. It's more logical to buy rather than to sell now." Given his capricious nature — Cavalli threw a tantrum in front of the press when he was forced to cancel the show for his diffusion line at Milan fashion week — City Spy isn't sure that it will be a smooth ride for Clessidra.

* Perhaps Robert Dudley, the boss of BP's TNK joint venture in Russia ousted by its Russian shareholders last year, should count his lucky stars. On Monday, the 19-year-old son of Rosneft's vice-president was kidnapped. Mikhail Stavsky is being ordered to pay a 50 million ransom to free his son, also called Mikhail.

* From Bloomberg, the news agency without a heart: "An Airbus A330-200 flying from Rio de Janeiro to Paris with 228 people aboard went missing after reporting an electrical-circuit breakdown and encountering turbulence, the company said. The shares gained 3.5 cents, or 0.3%, to 11.26 euros."

* "This Chancellor is leading the rest of the world," roared Gordon Brown in the House of Commons this week. Could it have been worse for Alistair Darling? Brown could have quoted Margaret Thatcher, who hailed Nigel Lawson as "unassailable"...

* All has been quiet on the Woolworths front since the Barclay brothers' Shop Direct Group bought the iconic brand name in February, a month after the High Street chain collapsed. But now it looks as if SDG's plan to launch a Woolworths website and give the brand a phoenix-like revival is imminent. The company has hired both Kensington-based Golden Goose PR and West End firm Hill & Knowlton to promote it ahead of a launch this summer, while the site's blog suggests that the famous Woolies pic'n'mix could be resurrected as click'n'mix...

* After Gordon Ramsay admitted how close he came to financial ruin earlier this week, Lastminute.com is offering discounted meals at six of his London restaurants...

* Price tells all. Just yesterday Betfair was quoting the July-September 2009 quarter as the most likely departure date for Gordon Brown, at 6/4 favourite. But 24 hours is a long time in politics. Today on the betting exchange, the current April-June quarter (i.e. sometime in the next 25 days) has come roaring in to even money favourite with the July-September quarter now as long as 5/1.