TV ads could enliven race for Pa. governor

Tuesday

Mar 30, 2010 at 12:01 AM

HARRISBURG (AP) — The last time Pennsylvania's governorship was up for grabs, the Democratic candidates seemed larger than life. There was now-Gov. Ed Rendell, the municipal maverick credited with saving Philadelphia from financial ruin — "America's mayor," then-Vice President Al Gore called him — and outgoing general chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

PETER JACKSON

HARRISBURG (AP) — The last time Pennsylvania's governorship was up for grabs, the Democratic candidates seemed larger than life.

There was now-Gov. Ed Rendell, the municipal maverick credited with saving Philadelphia from financial ruin — "America's mayor," then-Vice President Al Gore called him — and outgoing general chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

There was Bob Casey, the former governor's son who followed his father's footsteps in getting elected as state auditor general and was banking on strong support from organized labor to propel him into the executive mansion.

By the beginning of election year 2002, each had raised about $10 million. By early February, both campaigns had begun airing statewide TV commercials. By early April, polling showed Rendell and Casey running neck and neck, with only one-quarter of Democratic voters undecided.

The 2002 primary race was closely watched nationally because the candidates had statewide name recognition that they had spent years cultivating and boatloads of cash to promote their campaigns.

This year's languid contest for the Democratic nomination lacks those ingredients.

Barely seven weeks before voters cast ballots, the appeal of the candidates — Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor General Jack Wagner, both from Pittsburgh, and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel and state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams from the southeastern corner of the state — remains largely regional.

A Franklin & Marshall College poll released this week showed Onorato with the most support, at only 11 percent. That was dwarfed by the 71 percent of Democrats who said they have not settled on a favorite to take on the winner of the GOP contest between state Attorney General Tom Corbett and state Rep. Sam Rohrer.

"Most voters just simply aren't tuned into this thing," said Christopher Borick, a professor and pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

Television advertising can change the equation dramatically, of course.

A compelling ad campaign launched as large numbers of voters are starting to pay attention to the election can portray the sponsor in a positive light — and define opponents in unflattering ways — like no other medium.

"Pennsylvania's a TV state," said Terry Madonna, a Franklin & Marshall professor who directs the Lancaster college's polls, referring to the challenges of campaigning across such a sprawling state.

But the cost can be huge. A week of concentrated political advertising on statewide TV in Pennsylvania's multiple media markets can cost $750,000 to $1 million, according to campaign strategists who buy airtime.

All of the Democratic candidates say their campaigns will include a TV component, but none has the kind of financial wherewithal that fueled the seemingly endless air wars of 2002.

Look for Onorato to put up the earliest ads. An accountant and lawyer in his second term as Allegheny County's top elected official, Onorato began this campaign year with $6.5 million in the bank — nearly 10 times as much as Wagner, who had the next-largest total. And he continues to aggressively raise money for the May 18 primary.

Whether the other candidates can afford to counter Onorato commercial-for-commercial or will be forced to keep a lower profile will become clearer when they publicly disclose their campaign finances in the next round of reports in early April.

Peter Jackson is the Capitol correspondent for The Associated Press in Harrisburg. He can be reached at pjackson@ap.org.

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