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FUNG PREDICTS: Oct 1st, 2013.......The Crash Begins

First off, please forgive me for putting a prediction on the Main. Normally, such posts are placed in Alt, since nobody has a key to the future.

However, this is prediction is a bit different than others I've made. This prognostication is based in fact. Here's my thinking. I believe that the Republicans will move to defund Obama care sometime in the near future.....The net result of that action, will be that the congress critters will SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT. .....The actual day for that shut down will be, if they chose not to pass funding bills, IS....OCT. 1ST.

If my supposition is true, it would be wise to anticipate this shutdown, and prepare accordingly. We all are aware that the government is stone cold broke. We know that something dramatic is going to come about as the result of their lack of money to fund government activities.

I say it's going to happen......

NOTE: I do realize that the crash has started long before the date, Oct. 1st, 2013. However, a defunding of the government will push the creeky wheels of 'a crash' into high gear. With this October 1st deadline looming, folks will really begin to panic in Aug. Sept..and then Oct.

NOTE2: I'm more than willing to 'eat crow' on this prediction....that's how sure I am that this will happen.

NOTE3: Both Republicans and Democrats wish to scare the daylights out of the American people. What better
way then shut down the government....and then watch the sheeple scramble for theTPTB to increase the
spending in order to keep the money flowing................
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The republicans and the democrats seem to be both using the same play book. Both parties wish to shut down the government in order to scare the American people so much that they will be screaming for action on the budget, EVEN IF THAT ACTION MEANS AN INCREASE IN OUR DEBT BURDEN.

Nice to hear from you psychgirl........it's been a while.
This government shut down story will take some major headlines during the month of August. That's why I wrote a post entitled, The Ides of August............The middle and latter parts of the month of August will be crucial for our financial system, in my view. With this government shut down looming, the marketeers and wall street wise guys are going to get very, very twitchy. The sheeple? They will always be the last to realize what's happening. Basically, the sheeple are reactive.....they make their wishes known 'after the fact', not before. By then, however, it will be much too late.

The expectation is that Congress will do what it has done in recent years: pass a temporary funding bill by Sept. 30 to prevent a government shutdown on Oct. 1, the first day of fiscal 2014.

Some Republicans are demanding that the 2014 budget withhold funding for Obamacare. The Senate and President Obama would not agree to such a budget, which could lead to a government shutdown.

"We have the potential to show real leadership -- and stand together and actually defund (Obamacare)," said Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. "Republicans will be blamed for a government shutdown. . . but I think (the House) should fund the entirety of the federal government -- except Obamacare."

However, the congressional report underscores that shutting down the government will do little to stop Obamacare.

The Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010, with the goal of expanding health care coverage and affordability to millions by various mechanisms, including subsidies, mandates and setting up health care exchanges for the uninsured.

Obama economy speeches come ahead of budget battle

Obamacare has lately been in the spotlight, as it gets closer to taking full effect. States are setting up health exchanges for people to buy insurance. The individual mandate, which requires taxpayers to buy insurance or pay a government fine, takes effect Jan. 1. The mandate forcing employers was delayed by a year to 2015, allowing businesses more time to provide their workers with health insurance.

Not all Republicans want to shut down the federal government over Obamacare.

Sen. Tom Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican said on Tuesday that while he wants to defund Obamacare, threatening a government shutdown isn't the best way to end Obamacare, citing the new congressional report.

"I praise my colleagues in what they're trying to do," Coburn said. "What we need to do is delay (Obamacare) and get it to a point where we can kill it."

President Obama on Tuesday criticized Republicans in Congress who would "hurt a fragile recovery by suggesting they wouldn't pay the very bills Congress rang up, and threaten to shut down the people's government if they can't shut down Obamacare."

--CNN's Ted Barrett and Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report. To top of page

We are witnessing a gigantic game of chicken. The participants are the critters in Washington, against the American people. Either the people will be behind a raising of the amount of money the government spends OR the government will shut down.......when and if the government shuts down, how are you going to feel about that?

I have thought about the possibility of the republicans doing just that but then I wonder if they have the stones to actually do it.
They seem to like to jump up on a stump and crow but when it is time to fight they head for the barn.

I have thought about the possibility of the republicans doing just that but then I wonder if they have the stones to actually do it.
They seem to like to jump up on a stump and crow but when it is time to fight they head for the barn.

The republicans and democrats are basically the same entity. They play one party against the other for the benefit of the gum chewing public, who wait eagerly in the peanut gallery waiting for their next pronouncement.

Do they really plan on shutting down the government? Only God knows....however, this whole three act play is being done so that the American people will appreciate Washington, and know never to bite the hands that feeds them....in other words, a shut down is in the cards.....if not a shut down, they plan on taking the public to as near the fiscal cliff as possible. They wish to try and print as much money as they can, in order to grease their wheels. If a shut down is necessary in order to enact their agenda, a shut down will happen.

NOTE: It's very hard to grease wheels that are coming off the wagon....however, lubing up the public...well that's another story.

I don't do predictions because I hate the taste of crow even with ketchup on it. But, I wouldn't bet against your prediction either. Something has gotta give pretty darn soon. This unreal economic fairy tale and all the smoke they keep trying to blow up our nether regions can't continue very much longer. I don't have enough money to buy gold but I'm squirreling away as much silver as I can while the prices are low. Going to be a wild ride as it all shakes loose. God help us because he is the only one who can!

What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

Hasn't the government has gone unfunded before? I think it was during President Clinton's Admin. The memory is a little fuzzy. Didn't they send a lot of the contractors home and request that "Only essential personnel report for work.". Of course no one wanted to be counted as non-essential and no bureaucrat is going to admit that they and any member of the mini or not so mini empire subordinate to them is not "essential" so everyone showed up. Eventually the money came through and the contractors went back to work. The money has always come through. Even if they cut off funding no one would probably believe it until the automatic payroll deposits don't hit the checking accounts. The government might continue to operate weeks or more before and if anything actually happens.

IMHO they don't dare let the beast shut down, not for a day or week. Americans would quickly find out they don't need it. States, local government and religious institutions would step in to fill the void and take back responsibilities they never should have seceded. Federal regulations needed to process food? USDA stamp needed to sell meat? Right! Remember how well Prohibition and the War on Drugs has worked? There already is a black market in the US. Imagine the expansion opportunity this would be for organized crime and not so organized crime? Would it be chaos? Probably at first until the new normal arrived. Would the unprepared suffer? Yup. Thing is create a demand and potential for profit (value doesn't have to mean FRN's) and an American will find a way to fill it..

Last edited by Old Gray Mare; 07-31-2013 at 08:28 AM.
Reason: spelling l

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

I don't do predictions because I hate the taste of crow even with ketchup on it. But, I wouldn't bet against your prediction either. Something has gotta give pretty darn soon. This unreal economic fairy tale and all the smoke they keep trying to blow up our nether regions can't continue very much longer. I don't have enough money to buy gold but I'm squirreling away as much silver as I can while the prices are low. Going to be a wild ride as it all shakes loose. God help us because he is the only one who can!

If I were a betting man, which I am, I'd say that there is a 60/40 chance in favor of a shut down. Why? The government needs an extra 100 billion a year (a trillion over 10 years) in order to keep many needy Americans on the dole. The only way to increase spending, in my opinion, is to scare Americans into going along with this redistribution of wealth......the wealth comes from weak hands....to supposedly strong hands, and then back to weak hands, one more time. The government shut down boondoggle, is merely a sharp stick in which to remind the zoomified sheeple that the system is hungry, and needs a bigger bite of the shrinking monetary pie.

NOTE: Never underestimate the rule of 'unintended consequences'. TPTB do make mistakes, and their actions can and will foster events which aren't in their playbook.

NOTE2: There was a government shut down under Clinton. Fortunately for us, the debt was no where near it is today. The shut down was short......and things quickly normalized. This time, it may be different.....remember,
these guys are gamblers. They are betting on a positive outcome. However, black swan theory, and the laws of unintended consequences are playing against their reckless gambit. The answer? We will see in a few short months.
Crow or filet of Grouper......the trouble with crow is that it's stringy. How do I know? I've tasted crow many, many times(figuratively)(thank God)

It's like the weather folks say when a hurricane is coming - Preparations to Protect Life and Property Should Be Rushed to Completion.

The wonder of our time isnít how angry we are at politics and politicians; itís how little weíve done about it. - Fran Porretto
-http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

One thing I have always wondered---If the government shuts down, what happens to the pay checks for the military, air traffic controllers, the employees at nuclear facilities and any other critical jobs? Do they still go to work with the promise of pay later?

"I've learned that people will forget what you said, People will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel." -- Maya Angelou

Doc, you're prediction would be pretty likely if .Gov played by the rules but they are breaking them all over the place. For example to avoid going over the debt ceiling all they have to do is stop posting the transactions, in their mind, they therefore aren't going over the limit.

What other tricks are they going to utilize to get around the fact that they are breaking the law? Double or triple books, outright fraud, three-card monty with federal accounts?

I wouldn't trust this .Gov any further than I could throw it.

"Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other."
-John Adams, Americaís Second President

One thing I have always wondered---If the government shuts down, what happens to the pay checks for the military, air traffic controllers, the employees at nuclear facilities and any other critical jobs? Do they still go to work with the promise of pay later?

The only fedgov employees to be "furloughed" will be those in a position that the general public deems to be "critical". IOW, only the ones that provide services that directly affect the public. The goal is to make it as painful as possible on the sheeple and blame it all on the other side. Just like bankrupt cities cutting fire and police forces first and leaving all the cushy good 'ol boy do-nothing jobs untouched. They know exactly what they are doing.

"You never had the things you thought you should have had and you'll not get them now..."

They could shut down the EPA, Parks, Dept. of Agriculture, and the Forest Service. Stop overseas payments to our enemies. No problem there. Should they shut down VA Hospitals or stop SS to elderly they will hang from trees. Murder to do such things with winter coming on. May have a very different outcome than expected. I to see the wreck coming just don't know which way it will fall.

Would there be a run on banks? Would the banks close? Should we stash some money in a safe? Can we ride this out in a few months?

No ... because this will mostly affect people that can't afford to have money in the bank, e.g., those who survive on some type of government check whether you call it an entitlement or not.
No ... because the banks get their license to operate from the .gov but the .gov do not (technically) fund them
Yes ... this is just one of many things that people should have been prepping for considering how long folks have been saying that the most likely SHTF situation to hit anyone would be financial

This stat is slightly O.T. I just saw it on Drudge, and thought I'd share it ....

U.S. GROWTH: 1.7% Not good...not good at all.

Heh...figures lie and liars figure. If those are the official numbers the government is putting out you can bet that the real truth is economic retraction and not a measly 'increase' and this economic
retraction is by the old school truthful figures called a depression despite what kind of spin they put on it. Wait until they can't hide the truth anymore.

What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

Never underestimate the power of collective stupidity. That would include both congress and all the people that put them there.

I may not know the answer to this medical care crisis but I can certainly see that Barry-care IS NOT THE ANSWER! I still find it difficult to believe the supreme court actually went along with this monstrosity of a law. Once again the power of collective stupidity reigns supreme!!

Doc ... I don't necessarily see the world coming to an end on Oct 1 but it never hurts to have a goal. LOL. Instead what I am doing is using the Oct 1 date as my "prep by" date. Due to a pretty extreme summer that started back around January some time I've let my preps slide. I've got 9 or 10 weeks - give a few days here or there - to bring my preps back to my personal comfort level and I spent the morning budgeting it out and making lists of things I want to have done each week.

Like I said, I don't see it as a crash material so much as more sliding in the opposite direction than I want to go.

October is also the month people put away of the last of the mental summer "happy, happy" carp and start to look forward (or just complain and do nothing) and generally start getting the holiday stress out blues ... fall, Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc. Harvests should be finished up and we'll see just how bad (or not) the weather affected them and how that will impact us. The summer of discontent with the Muslims will have either calmed down or been taken to the next level and that will also play a part in how bad the heebie jeebies.

However, this is prediction is a bit different than others I've made. This prognostication
is based in fact. Here's my thinking. I believe that the Republicans will move to
defund Obama care sometime in the near future.....The net result of that action, will
be that the congress critters will SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT. .....

the actual day for that shut down will be, if they chose not to pass funding bills, IS....OCT. 1ST.

I say it's going to happen......

"Please don't panic, people! Remain calm and collected. We don't need any foolish
doomers stirring the political pot and adding their own gloomy ingredients because
we already have enough crooks, er, cooks involved. It's all Bush's fault! President
Obama is busy firing the incompetent Republican cooks before our multicultural pot
boils over and eats through the foundation of our government which by the way is
why we need you to pay more taxes. Do you want Congress to crumble into a heap
of rubble due to sabotage from evil Tea Party Poopers and crazy doomer survivalists
with hidden motives that we're trying to discover by the faithful efforts of the NSA?
I guarantee you as sure as the authenticity of Barry's birth certificate that there is
no way the United States government will shut down on the first day of the month
of the Great Pumpkin who will appear to give wonderful gifts to all good boys and
girls and loyal citizens obeying President Obama. You have my word that the White
House administration will work with our Congress and Federal Reserve bankers to do
whatever is necessary to keep our nation from collapsing, even if we have to inflate
to the moon, Alice in Wonderland! Yes, you can count on whatever I say times ten
to the stars! So please ignore this fungal doomer and buy some stuff on easy credit!
I'll talk to you again in October, and we can all laugh at this deluded doctor while we
chug down cold beer and hot spicy bratwurst during Oktoberfest! Party on, people!"

"Shutdown" has been a buzzword in Washington this week, as tensions continue to rise in Congress over reaching a budgeting agreement for the rest of the fiscal year before the current one expires.

With the deadline for reaching an agreement just nine days away, it raises the question: What would a shutdown look like today? For those hoping to explore a national park or museum, those sites may be closed. Veterans could see their services curtailed. And, anyone who submits an application for a passport could find themselves having to postpone whatever foreign travel they were hoping to do this spring.

At least, these were some of the effects of last set of shutdowns that occurred in 1995-96. During this time, our government had two funding gaps, affecting the country in a number of ways. A Congressional Research Service Report lists some of the consequences of those most recent shutdowns:

Over 1,000,000 federal employees were sent home during the combined 1995-96 shutdowns. Major federal work force furloughs occurred in of the Department of Education, the Department of Veteran Affairs, Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Social Security Administration, to name a few.
National museums and monuments closed down, resulting in an estimated loss of 2 million visitors.
368 National Park Service sites also closed, losing 7 million visitors and around $14.2 million per day in tourism revenue.
20,000-30,000 foreign visa applications per day went unprocessed, as did an estimated total of 200,000 U.S. passport applications.
[B]Health, welfare, finance, and travel services for veterans were restricted.
New Medicare applicants were turned away, and new patients at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Clinical Center were not accepted.
Furloughs at the Centers for Disease Control resulted in limited information regarding the spread of contagious diseases.
Over 3,500 bankruptcy cases were suspended.
Federal agencies managing over 20% over the total number of government contracts were affected./B]

In order to avoid the recurrence of such events, Democrats and Republicans must reach a spending
Last week, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, rejected any talk of passing a short-term measure that would extend the present government funding levels. "I'm not going to move any kind of short-term [continuing resolution] at current levels," Rep. Boehner told reporters last Thursday.

But that is exactly what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has proposed. Reid announced Tuesday he intends to introduce a 30-day funding bill at current spending levels when Congress returns next week, and he called on Boehner to engage in serious talks.

"It is time to drop the threats and ultimatums, and work together on a path forward," Reid said in a statement. "I am asking Speaker Boehner to simply take the threat of a government shutdown off the table, and work with us to negotiate a responsible, long-term solution."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., signaled Tuesday that Reid's proposal was a non-starter for GOP lawmakers. "The American people spoke loud and clear: stop the Washington spending spree and bring down the debt. Yet Washington Democrats can't find a single dime of federal spending to cut, insisting on the status quo, even for a short-term spending bill," McConnell said in a statement.

The impasse leaves a $61 billion gap between Republicans and Democrats. That is the amount of the reductions passed by House Republicans last Saturday in their plan to fund the government over the next seven months - and makes the prospect of a shutdown more plausible by the day.

In the 1995-1996 shutdowns, President Clinton and congressional Republicans, led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich, were unable to reach an agreement on lifting the federal debt ceiling, causing both a five and 21 day spending gap. Those shutdowns provide some helpful clues.

"It was a real behind-the-scenes struggle," recalled Richard Norton Smith, Scholar-in-Residence of History and Public Policy at George Mason University. "It was a match up of the pragmatists versus the ideologues, with a much more defined party against party split than even today," said Smith. The rise of the Tea Party has added another layer to the debate, with newly elected GOP lawmakers pushing party leaders for even deeper cuts than originally proposed, and making a compromise all the more difficult to reach.

The Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe detailed some of the repercussions of the 1996 shutdown in a post last week.

"Over the course of more than 20 days, about 260,000 District-area federal employees stayed home, or reported for duty only to be sent packing...Agencies retroactively paid workers once the doors reopened, but many government contractors--paid separately by private employers- earned nothing during the shutdowns," O'Keefe wrote.

Veteran Congress-watcher Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute echoes O'Keefe's point about the secondary effects of a shutdown. "A shutdown doesn't just affect those federal employees who are furloughed, it affects the thousands of government contractors that work with the federal government," Ornstein said. Unlike their federally-employed counterparts, government contractors have no chance of recouping wages lost during a shutdown.

State-employed workers whose salaries are paid with federal dollars could also be affected. "A significant number of state jobs are funded by the federal government, so there is the threat that states might to lay off those people because their money isn't coming in," Ornstein noted.

Furthermore, states that rely on federal dollars to cope with mounting budget shortfalls would feel the cash crunch even more if a deal cannot be reached.

Perhaps the most striking difference between now and 15 years ago is the elevated post-9/11 security throughout the country. There are new national defense organizations that did not exist back then, such as the Department of Homeland Security and Transportation Security Administration.

President Obama would have the discretion to keep certain "essential" government operations up and running, such as the military, Coast Guard, border patrol and other national security-related programs. In addition, the postal service would still deliver the mail, air traffic controllers would keep a watchful eye on the nation's skies and runways, and federal prisons would remain staffed.

Still, the inconvenience caused by a government shutdown might not be as painful as the last time around. "We are more advanced in some areas now than we were 15 years ago," Ornstein said. "Back then, for example, checks had to be mailed out to employees but now funds can be directly deposited to a laborer's account." That advancement in technology could also ease the hassle of delivering retroactive paychecks to the tens of thousands of government employees forced to take leave in the event of a shutdown. "It would be a disruption, but it might not be an enormous disruption," he said.

Doc, could you please post the link to your 'Ides of August' post? I think the middle and latter parts of the month of August (then into the Fall) are going to be crucial spiritually-speaking as well.

The Ides of August thread was entitled so simply because I remember the markets of both 2001 (august).
That latter part of August, was especially turbulent for both stocks and bonds. I am thinking that the same predicament will take place one more time as history repeats itself as we see one final blow off of markets world wide. Of course, my theory is just a guess. Economically, Socially, and Spiritually, I believe we have surpassed the tipping point, and are presently finding ourselves facing spiritual dementia.

The Ides of August thread has relevance to me, because of the biblical quotes that I posted in that thread. Also, there was a good article by Jim Sinclair posted there, also.

This sh*t has been going on for so long, it isn't even funny anymore. I remember back when I was in the military. Late 80's thru early 90's. Our middle of September pay date was moved to the beginning of October, so they could balance the budget for the end of the fiscal year. So we got paid two pay periods on October 1.

Anyways there is a couple other articles I read recently, that put forth proof that the government actually is past its allotted budget/funds at this moment for this last authorization, and should be shut down immediately. Wish I could remember where the articles were.

You bet there will be! Not everyone is blind, deaf, dumb and ignorant and just 5% of the population emptying their bank accounts would cause a collapse.

Would the banks close?

They would have to. The banks would be out of cash. Also the Federal Government might order a "bank holiday" (remember FDR?) to give themselves some breathing room.

Should we stash some money in a safe?

You bet! Or under a mattress, or buried in a Mason jar in the back yard. History repeats itself, and during the "Great Depression", as my grandparents described it, "cash was king!"

Can we ride this out in a few months?

I hope so but I doubt it. Once the banking system goes, the world economy will go too. This will be the end of the game for quite some time to come!

Originally Posted by Lindy

Essential services do not shut down. Social security checks still go out. Has happened many times before. They were just talking about this on Mark Levin radio this week.

If the checks "go out" or the funds are directly deposited to the account, the bank still has to be open to cash the check or withdraw the funds. In a "bank holiday" scenario a'la 1933, a check will be uncashable and funds will be inaccessible. It can't happen now? Really? Think what happened to the folks in Cyprus earlier this year.

Not going to happen. No way the republicans shut down government right now and they ought to quit talking about it. They get eaten alive in the press every time they try it and end up backing down. Doing it now would cost them control of the House in 2014 and they know it. They are trying to plan long term by keeping the House and winning the Senate in 2014. Then Reid couldn't block everything the House passes. That would put the onus on Obama to veto their proposals and hurt the dems in 2016.

The republicans and the democrats seem to be both using the same play
book. Both parties wish to shut down the government in order to scare the
American people so much that they will be screaming for action on the budget,EVEN IF THAT ACTION MEANS AN INCREASE IN OUR DEBT BURDEN.

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