Prabowo Subianto delivers an address during a huge campaign rally in Jakarta. Photo by AFP.

Presidential hopeful Prabowo Subianto has outlined his plans to dismantle Indonesia’s democracy in a public speech, write Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner.

In a speech last Saturday at the Taman Ismail Marzuki cultural complex in Jakarta, Prabowo stated that direct elections were not compatible with the Indonesian cultural character and gave a strong signal that he wishes to do away with the practice. In other words, while he wants to encourage Indonesians to vote for him in this election, it appears he does not want to give them a chance to evaluate his performance and cast judgment on his presidency in five years’ time.

Though we have not yet been able to access a full transcript of the speech, a report appeared in the online version of the Kompas newspaper in which Prabowo stated that direct elections were a product of Western culture that was not ‘suitable’ to Indonesia. He compared the practice to smoking, something that was hard to stop once somebody is hooked on the practice. He continued that Indonesia needed to come up with a new political format that removed traits that went too far in their ‘Western’ orientation.

Kompas quoted him as saying: “We need a new consensus. Political leaders, intellectuals, religious and cultural leaders, even workers. I don’t want this abnormality to allow us to abandon the cultural values of our ancestors.” Kompas then paraphrased the former general as saying that a large national-scale meeting would be needed to come up with such a new consensus, contrasting this with the current situation in which “at this time, in the name of democracy, all policies have to be via voting, including direct elections”.

Prabowo is here playing a tune that comes directly from the songbook of the former authoritarian regime of his onetime father-in-law General Suharto.

In the early years of his New Order regime, the military claimed to be putting in a place a new ‘consensus’ on which it based its authoritarian system. The regime also always emphasized a (concocted) version of Indonesian tradition, emphasizing mutual deliberation and consensus, in legitimating its anti-democratic practices. Indeed, Prabowo’s statement reads as if extracted directly from the speech of a government leader at the height of the New Order period, in a way that has become very rare since the end of that regime.

Presumably, what Prabowo has in mind is not simply the elimination of direct elections for local government heads (something that he has already spoken explicitly on) but also a return to indirect elections of the President via the MPR (Majelis Pemusyawarahan Rakyat, People’s Consultative Assembly), the process that was used by Suharto and that was, and will be, wide open to manipulation and patronage politics.

This is perhaps the most explicit statement so far of Prabowo’s attitude to electoral democracy. He has stated in the past that democracy ‘exhausts us’, that he wishes to create a ‘productive’ rather than ‘destructive’ democracy, and has indirectly signaled an intent to dismantle much of the infrastructure of post-Suharto democracy by returning to the original version of the 1945 Constitution. Only now do we see that Prabowo very likely also wants to dismantle the very mechanism that will bring him to power: direct presidential elections.

This is an extraordinary state of affairs. It is very rare in the modern world for would-be autocrats to openly state that they want to destroy the electoral system through which they seek to achieve power. They mostly mask such intentions before they are elected. We probably need to go back to the fascist movements of 1930s Europe to find such explicitly authoritarian sentiments expressed by electoral movements that end up winning elections.

So far, however, the camp of Prabowo’s rival, Joko Widodo, seems to be doing nothing to highlight Prabowo’s recent statement and the threat that it implies toward Indonesia’s democratic architecture. This is in line with that campaign’s failure to highlight similarly anti-democratic elements in Prabowo’s statements and appeal, and its apparent unwillingness to pitch this election as one in which the future of Indonesia’s democratic system is at stake.

If Indonesian democracy dies on July 9, it will do so with a whimper, not a bang.

Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner are Indonesia politics specialists based at the Department of Political and Social Change in the Australian National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific. They have been on the ground following the presidential elections.

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57 Comments

Prabowo has so many skeletons in his closet, he could be a forensic anthropologist. More accurately, he could be a guest star on CSI and I don’t mean, one of the forensic scientists. Blood and turmoil have followed Prabowo wherever he has found himself. His emotional and mental stability is very much open to question, his weak interpersonal skills much in evidence, and his penchant for
anti-Chinese and anti-Semitic commentary, even if in the past, can hardly be erased during the present, and should not. Prabowo, in fact, other than being an enabler who has risen through ties to the former Soeharto regime, personal and professional, in fact has almost nothing to offer Indonesia, that is original, intelligent, visionary, realistic, stable, articulate, tolerant (smart man, Prabowo, ordering Gus Dur to “behave” or else), technocratic, cultured,
or uniquely Indonesian. Whatever Jokowi’s own weaknesses, which are not few, Prabowo even lacks the minimal emotional and mental stability to lead a nation, as diverse and large, as Indonesia. One needs to wear many hats to manage Indonesia. Prabowo’s problem is that he tries to wear all the hats at one time.

Educated people know to point out a certain part when they disagree and support it with an argument, instead of summarising the whole thing into “you lie in your wrote”, which is not even english.
So yes, we might not know everything, so pray tell, what do we need to know?

Indonesia by nature is currently running representative democracy, not direct democracy. In Political Parties, written in 1911 by Robert Michels, it mentioned that this system tends to lean towards corrupt oligarchy, which is currently too deeply rooted and indeed destructive. The most surefire way to get rid of corruption? Total purge of current (way too corrupted) system. For one, the most stable and productive form of goverment is guided democracy WITH citizens possessing a healthy awareness and nationalism. Say whatever you want, but most Indonesians nationalism is pathetic at best. To change this is a must.

After all, the greater good and the good of many far outweigh personal interest. In this individualist society (yes, f*ck Jakarta, for example… and no, I’m not even gonna hide that contempt), this current society trend will lead Indonesia to ruin, both in society and its national character. You might protest of my mention of Jakarta, but IF you know what going on behind the apparent gleam of metropolis ‘society’, you might want to vomit. I’m not going to mention conspiracy topics like other country’s black ops, cultural invasion, or such, but surely the fact that if nationalism died then the country is as good as corpse is not too hard to understand, no? Proof? Lets see who’s still even remember national anthem and motto. Heck, even pathetic social trends like ‘alay’ culture and rampant brand consumerism is clearly a bad sign if one think logically. Which most people clearly don’t, Indonesia is still a developing country after all.

Besides, I’m sure as hell don’t want a president that can be ‘directed’ by ‘The Big Mom’. Ain’t gonna risk that.

What’s the difference between Big Mom and In-Laws from Cendana with all corruptors from ORBA?

Big Mom couldn’t even put her own daughter to be in the Presidential Election. Big Mom is very reluctant to have Jokowi as the runner for her party, because it means the demise of her stupid dynasty. Jokowi must play Javanese, otherwise Big Mom knows Jokowi is also another asshole that she must be aware of, like SBY with many hidden agenda.

A huge danger is that this fiery nationalistic rhetoric spooks foreign investors, causing them to flee. Markets will tank and it’s anyone’s guess where the rupiah will end up. Lending will dry up as borrowing costs soar. It won’t be pretty that’s for sure.

The issues here are larger than one candidate. In order to understand the threats to democracy, it’s important to understand the appeal of Prabowo and why a large portion of the electorate favors ketegasan over a message of clean governance. Even if Jokowi wins, a significant number of Indonesians will have voted for Prabowo. Understanding the appeal of Prabowo is essential (New Order nostalgia, frustration with the Reformasi era, growing intolerance). This appeal is the real threat to further reforms and democracy in Indonesia, not just one candidate.

i think he was trying to say that some indonesian has no education thus they swallowed his empty promises. like when he says that he’s going to raise the minimum wage to 6 mil. first year economics student will understand that raising the minimum wage will raise the production cost that will raise the prices and thus will force the people to arrange a strike to demand wage raise. But simple people who think that the cost of a product is merely the material (and forgetting about the cost of labor, marketing, electricity, etc) will just swallow the promise wholly.

Hi Bart, I find the word ketegasan very interesting: it means discipline, strictness. In a family context is a synonym of good education, in general it means the ability to make a system working properly without compromises. Probably this is what Indonesian people are expecting from politics today, but I don’t think it has anything to do a New Order nostalgia. In any case your approach is intellectually very honest and free: you try to go back to the roots of the problems without prejudices. Please don’t read my comments, because on the contrary I’m very politically oriented

The reason Jokowi does not address this is because he doesn’t want to be dragged in a mud-slinging contests that Prabowo’s supporters have started from early on. He prefers not to fracture the nation with this issue since he’s a pragmatic realist. He realises that if Prabowo happened to be win (God forbid!), Indonesia cannot afford to be fractured further. Instead, he concettates on developing positive approach in his campaign, and this is one of the reasons, that albeit with all of his weaknesses, I still see him as my kind of Presiden. As he once said, diplomacy is a better solution rather than war, and I applaud him for this. We, the volunteers and the supporters, are requested to follow his example, not to use negative campaigns, slanders, misinformations and other low down campaign tactics, but stay on the right side of promotive positive points of his leadership and his programs. Whether he wins or loses, he will come up clean and honest, and that is more important than winning by cheating

Although i agree with your idea of having a positive campaign, but when facing with irrational voters such as the one we have in Indonesia, sometimes the best way to gain ground is by playing the same game as Prabowo. We can see now how Indonesians are buying into these filth that the Prabowo team has put out there about Jokowi, to the point where they had to falsify a letter, a telephone transcript, and many other actions to get the public opinion on their side. In a rational state of mind, people would get discourage by these tactics but conversely they are eating it up to the point that Prabowo is gaining significant ground. I think that for the greater good of the country and to ensure that the situation described in this article doesnt happen, the Jokowi team has to get down and dirty and must stoop to their level. Perhaps once elected, through his mental revolution, the mindset and how people think in Indonesia can forever be altered for the better.

Most of people i know (even foreigner) agree that prabowo’s supporters are mostly short tempered people. It’s a public secret that most of rational people in this nation will go for Jokowi. I’m not taking side here since i was stripped from my right to vote (due to indonesia’s stupid system with bad socialization process). Prabowo put himself into a wrong category when he decided to take many people with “problem” on his side (people who are known by public for corruption, short tempered singer with questionable moral, and even someone who bend the law for the favor of his son as a vice president candidate).Public sees that all. the problem is, most of Indonesian has no such education to open their eyes off what is actually happening behind the scene. Jokowi is just playing safe. He hasn’t say anything and his supporter already trashed TVone’s office. I think he knows that saying anything about this matter will trigger something unwanted.

Dear pak Ed and pak Marcus, it would be much better if somebody can translate this piece so i (and other friends) can share this article broadly to other friends who can not understand English sufficiently. Approaching the election date, this insightful writing will be very useful to enlighten others who are still deciding for whom they will cast their vote for. Thank you.

A translation of this most recent piece by Ed and Marcus should be up on New Mandala tomorrow. Thanks very much for the endorsement of this effort. Keep an eye out for the translation and do tell your friends.

The thing about Indonesian voters who live in Indonesia is, they’re not so much exposed to such analysis or articles that provide logical arguments on the election. I am glad if i can share the benefit of reading the alike articles to others in Indonesia.

Dear Bart,
You’ve repeated your comments to understand better the Prabowo voter in multiple posts. We’ve been listening and we recognise the need to invite pro-Prabowo posts as much as critiques, however in a polarised election, we’ve struggled to find people to write these kinds of articles. Hopefully this week with the articles we have planned we’ll get closer to answering your question as to why Prabowo has been as effective as he has been. Thanks for continuing to read New Mandala.

for those who understands bahasa indonesia, try to listen to the recording of the session from the soundcloud link.

What Prabowo said is far from being anti Democracy. he is responding to a question and showing concern about how the western culture seems to overpower the original indonesian culture, hence the example of smoking and voting.

Voting is based on Athenian custom. The very same culture that shape the western world. Democracy is considered the best way of living for a state. Even though according to Machiavelli, Democracy cannot live forever (same goes for oligarchy and monarchy) and one day it will turn into Monarchy. So are you trying to say that Indonesian are suppose to be ruled by Monarchy or Oligarchy (same as before right?).

And about smoking. Please note that smoking is not originated from western countries. it originated from incense-burning practice done by babylonian, chinese, and indians. Don’t make prejudice about things. And for your information, in the early 19th century,

How, in the world, does an article which has no strong data and facts able to be considered as a good knowledge resource?

This article refers to another article written in Kompas, one of Indonesia’s national media, in which, nowadays stand on Jokowi’s side and writing bad things about Prabowo. Moreover, the speech quoted by Kompas has been fragmented, a method widely known to convey public opinion. Last, the article on Kompas even did not say anything about Prabowo’s intention to return to MPR-election way. The article only quote Prabowo statement, “we need our intellectuals and chief elements to gather, to talk about a new consensus”. This can be interpreted also as if Prabowo wants Indonesian leaders to come up with something better for Indonesia instead just merely adopting what had been Western product of thinking.

This one is a good opinion and journalism practice, but the way the writer delivers the article and conclusion is far from objective.

Wow, really? Good analysis right there, bro just repeating everything that was written in the article. You know that this article is a persuasive argument right?
Kompas did not fragmented any quotation whatsoever. If you are a good reader, which clearly you are not, this article written that Kompas has paraphrased Prabowo’s statement. Another thing to add about MPR election way, you can see that the writers have said presumably. It was the writer’s interpretation of what Prabowo said when he does not agree of direct election.

Get your facts straight. Well, this is one of the example of uneducated person. I don’t get why all Prabowo’s supporters are soooo dumb. Take an example of Ahmad Dhani, stealing people’s music and still saying that he’s an artist. Yeah right.

When you tolerate bad behaviors, they will thrive. The biggest mistake the people of Indonesia have committed is that they failed to punish those who committed certain crimes and corruptions, and therefore establishing a pattern of those crimes and corruptions as part of the accepted norms.

Prabowo’s human rights violation was just one example among many other unpunished crimes in the country. To name a few, the cold blooded murders of some religious followers that were captured in camera and published in various media, the violence against Sampang muslims, and the countless cases of frauds and corruptions; none of the perpetrators were punished. Of course Soeharto himself was never indicted.

The second biggest mistake is that Indonesians have not fully accepted democracy. There are many who blatantly admitted they missed the Soeharto era.

With this in mind, one should not be surprised if democracy in Indonesia will suffer a big blow. It’s not that Prabowo is so powerful, but it’s because the people choose to let it happen.

The Indonesian press inform us that now, contrary to former assurances of neutrality, SBY and his Democrats will back Prabowo-Hatta because, SBY tells us, Prabowo’s policies are in line with the Democrats’ policies and that Prabowo will continue to carry on SBY’s ‘reforms’. Is that so! Not according to Prabowo.
A year ago many of us would have laughed – or shuddered – at the prospect of Prabowo getting a look in. Even about six months ago one media report stated that Prabowo’s campaign had run out of steam because he had pitched it for too long. And now this!
It’s surreal. Muslim Indonesia is going to elect a divorced ( to all extents – single) president who has a penchant for bursts of uncontrollable rage in which he reputedly bashes up the pretty young men he surrounds himself with. I wonder whether his single, fashion designer son in Paris will design daddy’s wardrobe for the inauguration? Some tight fitting little number to keep that overweaning hubris in place.
One day when the history of all this can be written without fear, people are going to say, “How on earth did this happen?” It will happen because most people on this planet would rather die than think for themselves. And you know what? Some of them do.

“I wonder whether his single, fashion designer son in Paris will design daddy’s wardrobe for the inauguration? Some tight fitting little number to keep that overweaning hubris in place.”

Somehow, I never quite thought of Prabowo as
SVELTE. ZAFTIG, yes, but not svelte. If size
is a determinant of ego, then Jokowi must be
Father Teresa. How bad can a former Governor of Jakarta be, if he likes punk and heavy metal music ? I don’t know Prabowo’s tastes, but Wagner comes to mind.

The next question of concern is what happens if Jokowi wins? Will Prabowo, who seems to see himself as destined for the top job, accept the will of the people, get back on his horse and trot calmly off into the sunset? That seems unlikely.

I think it’ s better for u to get a full transcript of the Speech coz if you made an opinion base on other journalist especially Kompas it’ s will be biased cause we know that It’s not objective anymore. Thanks.

To understand better of why Prabowo is now getting closer Joko Widodo (survey base), you should ask the supporters of the Prabowo..

To.my understanding and reviewing, many of the supporters select Prabowo because: 1) they were not happy when Megawati (PDI-P) ruled, many Indonesian assets (satelite and islands) gone to foreigners 2) majority of moslem do not want Islam to be divided to many factions (syiah, ahmadiyah, liberal) where it is against their religion believe 3) majority of moslem also believe that PDI-P party will harm the current state of Islam by re introduction of PKI (communism) 4) they also think that Joko Widodo is hypocrite because he breachs his own oath to God to be Governor of Jakarta for 5 years, and many others promises and statements are different than the actual facts (as people found out later in the news) 5) people now begin to think that what Joko Widodo did (blusukan, etc) are merely for his publicities (image boosting) puspose. Not genuine is also against the teaching of Islam (his religion)

Some of you may dislike this comment, but you could check it yourself..

Jokowi is the rakyat’s guy. He has solved a fair bit of Jakarta’s issues. He has relocated a sizable amount of the rakyat into kampung derets (petogoan, tanah tinggi) spread out across a city, complete with kitchens and a green space for the children. He has also cleared out many cisterns to be used as a prevention scheme for the upcoming flood season and hasn’t stopped dredging a countless number of cisterns and reservoirs to be transformed into beautiful parks (taman waduk pluit, taman waduk pulo mas) Another thing, the lelang jabatan has been able to a great extent, sever any ties of nepotism leading to the many respectable positions as prescribed under the mandated laws of the DKI government. This has resulted in an election based on merit and not money politics and it has in the process, embraced a greater diversity of candidates (Bhinneka Tunggal Ika in action). Secondly, Jokowi has proclaimed that neither one of his ministers will be elected trough a process of transactional politics. This means that much like the lelang, the positions being laid out for ministerial roles in the cabinet are supposedly going to be based on an election of merit, unlike the old school “orde baru” style whereby mass nepotism leads to an irreversible cycle of cronyism and the despair for the rakyat. By voting Jokowi, we are purely getting the best bang for the buck. And let’s not forget that Indonesian money economy is comprised largely by the IDX stock market and the bonds market in which roughly 60 % and 30 % of purchasable assets are owned by foreigners, in respective order. If Jokowi wins, this money will not go away in fact, many NGO surveys conducted with foreign entities and CEOs both in and outside of Indonesia have mentioned that if Prabowo wins, 70 % are tempted to sell their assets whereas only a mere 5-10 % would do such a thing if Jokowi won the campaign. Imagine the euphoria of Jokowi winning. The rupiah would strengthen, our stock exchange will grow, our foreign debts would be reduced, our bond yields will improve, our foreign exchange reserves would improve, ultimately driving down the need for imports and driving down the price of basic goods. Then, Jokowi will be able to set out on an odyssey of enabling the greatest country in South-east Asia, the emerald equator that is none other than our beloved Indonesia. Salam dua jari.

The reporters should look at the welfare conditions of the people in Indonesia. Democracy one man one vote is ideal when the social welfare of Indonesian is well. And one man one vote is not the terms according to Indonesian’s ideology PANCASILA on the fourth Sila saying Agreement of Conference or On behalf… Also the political parties is meant representing the voice of the people is considered on behalf.. The Coalition of the Parties electing President is not entirely by agreement to elect Jokowi. So is it not chaos or contrary determining democracy one man one vote… Either Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner is really just foreigners that only interested in utilizing Indonesia for their own welfare … enough said

in my opinion … treck record prabowo so far has
been very obvious bad …. where there have been
irregularities in terms of human rights. Many of
kidnapping and killing in the ruling military prabowo.
if he could be president, I can not imagine how this country will be. Democracy will die and people will not be able to speak out freely
again … The military will return to power. It was
terrible. Since the destruction of a democratic
freedoms

I acknowledge Prabowo as a complex ex-military person (well, I’m not saying that he order to kill protestant at 1998 tragedy which still debatable issue).

He has better speech ability and mass communication other than Joko Widodo. That’s a point that sometime foreign medias always put a spotlight and give a room to discuss. He also fluent in speaking English. Wisely, to think Prabowo as president candidate and centralize articles about he himself is unbalanced.

There’s several person that back up him that still having bad reputation such as Abu Rizal Bakri, you can google his business activities and the eternal flood of mud in Sidoarjo.

Indonesia by nature is currently running representative democracy, not direct democracy. In Political Parties, written in 1911 by Robert Michels, it mentioned that this system tends to lean towards corrupt oligarchy, which is currently too deeply rooted and indeed destructive. For one, the most stable and productive form of goverment is guided democracy WITH citizens possessing a healthy awareness and nationalism. Say whatever you want, but most Indonesians nationalism is pathetic at best. To change this is a must.

After all, the greater good and the good of many far outweigh personal interest. In this individualist society (yes, f*ck Jakarta, for example), this current society trend will lead Indonesia to ruin, both in society and its national character. I’m not going to mention conspiracy topics like other country’s black ops, cultural invasion, or such, but surely the fact that if nationalism died then the country is as good as corpse is not too hard to understand, no? Proof? Lets see who’s still even remember national anthem and motto. Heck, even pathetic social trends like ‘alay’ culture and rampant brand consumerism is clearly a bad sign if one think logically.

After all, I’m sure as hell don’t want a president that can be ‘directed’ by ‘The Big Mom’. Ain’t gonna even risk that.

Before we even talk about what Democracy Indonesia run under, we should go back and revise on couple basic on what is under Democracy. For example, something we called human right and something we called freedom of speech.

We do not know how Jokowi will be like if he is to be elected, but what we do know that Prabowo is rather famous(infamous) to breach this 2 basic rights under democracy.

Human right abuse, Prabowo Checked (too many to list, but 1998 is rather recent known event), Jokowi Unknown.

About Nationalism and awareness, you cannot expect the citizens who are alienated, abused and treated as a fool (for distributing false news and threatened for freedom of speech) to have that, right? Not to mentioned that how the politicians are elected through connections+money rather than meritocracy.

And I do not understand your “the greater good and the good of many far outweigh personal interest”. If we are electing someone under Democracy, we are electing on OUR PERSONAL INTEREST, which is an irony when you mentioned about Representative Democracy.

Most of the time, this is not really an issue of what government system Indonesia heading towards but rather, how will the next President leads Indonesia in the next 5 years. A country who has dictator or monarch does not equal a bad country, the same goes with, a country who has a President under Democracy will always be a good country. It just does not work that way.