Weather Rapport: Spring likely to arrive with a snowstorm

Mar. 17, 2013

It’s looking more and more likely that Vermont is in for one more big snowstorm before winter calls it quits. This one is due to arrive Monday night and it will not fully quit until Wednesday at the earliest.

As in any forecast for a big storm that won’t hit for another two days, there’s some uncertainty in the predictions. More on that in a minute.

There’s plenty of late season cold in place now to feed the upcoming storm. The forecast high temperature Sunday is 26 degrees, which would make it the coldest day since Feb. 21. The forecast low for Monday morning is 5 degrees, which would make that the chilliest dawn since February 10.

Here’s an initial look at how the storm would shape up. I’m basing this mostly on forecasts and data from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Again, things could change if weather systems don’t behave as currently forecast. I’m sure there will be at least some adjustments to the forecast before the show begins.

Anyway, it looks as if the initial wave of snow from the upcoming storm would come in Monday night, as a storm in the Midwest approaches. That snow would last into Tuesday morning before tapering off.

The lull would come as the Midwest storm begins to fade, and transfers its energy to a new storm along the coast. That one would go right over Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

If that storm track bears out, it puts Vermont in the sweet spot for heavy snow Tuesday afternoon and night. The storm will be in no hurry to leave the Northeast so a somewhat lighter, but still accumulating snow would continue Wednesday. Still lighter snow showers are expected Thursday and Friday.

Since it’s so late in the season and we’re approaching spring, this will be a heavy, wet snow, especially in the lower elevations. The slushy consistency of the snow could weigh down trees and power lines, which could cut the electricity in some spots.

I also call this type of precipitation “heart attack snow.” It’ll have a consistency not too different from wet cement, so people who are out of shape or prone to heart trouble should get a strapping young teenager or someone like that to shovel out their driveways.

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On the bright side, the snow will give the skiers and riders a late season hurrah, as the snow in the mountains should be less wet, and accumulate to a greater depth than in the valleys.

If these initial forecasts are accurate, the best early guess is we’re in for six to 12 inches of new snow in the valleys between Monday night and Wednesday afternoon. During that same period, Vermont’s mountains could get 12 to 20 inches of snow.

Of course, if the coastal storm turns out weaker than forecast, we’d get less snow. However, the reliable European computer weather forecasting models are pretty bullish on this storm. (The European is the one that was so accurate with Superstorm Sandy and the big nor’easters in early February and early March).

For those who don’t like snow, it doesn’t look like whatever accumulation we get will melt particularly fast. By Friday and Saturday, daytime highs will rise above freezing, and some of the snow showers will mix with rain in the valleys.

But still, those daytime highs will only be in the upper 30s, which is a little cool for this time of year. And the coolish weather pattern looks like it wants to hang into next week at least, possibly beyond.

It sure looks like the extremely early spring we had last year won’t be repeated this year.