Daily US Stock Market Fundamental & Technical Analysis

Daily fundamental and technical analysis of the US stock market by full time hedge fund manager and options guru, Master Jason Ng (owner and author of Optiontradingpedia.com). Serving investors daily since March 2006.

Stock Market Analysis

Monday, October 30, 2017

US Market Returns To Bull Track...

Last Thursday, I mentioned that last Friday's Q3 GDP has a higher chance of surprising to upside and could even start the bulls rolling and that was EXACTLY what happened! This was what I said:

"This
Friday's upcoming Q3 GDP report isn't likely going to surprise to
downside since it is largely expected to retreat from last quarter's
high. As such, any surprise would more likely come from the upside than
downside... could that be the catalyst to return the market to a bullish stance?"

Indeed, the bulls returned in strength on the Q3 GDP report with the S&P500 closing a new historical high of 2581 points! Even more importantly, the S&P500 did that right off its 10MA following the strong hammer reversal candle that I mentioned a few days before that, thereby completing a continuation pattern. This means that unless something changes very dramatically this week, the bulls are back and the US market is back into yet another new bull leg.

So, will things change dramatically this week?Well, this is going to be one eventful week ahead as it is the first week of September. Like all first weeks of the month, we get the two most important economic data; ISM Index and Jobs Report. On top of that, there is a FOMC meeting scheduled as well with announcement on Wednesday, which is also the day the ISM index is released. All in all, this week may be a rocky one but one which is definitely bullish inclined. (on top of that both the ISM index and Jobs Report may also turn out in a way as to help the market go higher as well! I will talk about this as the week goes along)So far, my Ride the Flow system has rode and profited from last week's move very very nicely without any work needed, just holding our positions and watching the profits roll in. If you are still confused how you can comfortably make a profit in this market condition without constantly watching the market and even if the market should go largely sideways like it did over the past one month, definitely check out my Ride the Flow options income trading system!For now, the market return to a short term, intermediate and primary bull trend. (don't miss my daily reports, sign up by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile pic now!)

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Secret Strength Returning to the US Market...

The market continued downwards yesterday exactly as planned, no surprises at all.

Interestingly, even this early in this profit taking phase, I am already seeing some secret strength in the market that seem to suggest that there is very very little downside left. With the S&P500 back down to around the same level I previously predicted the market to go into this profit taking, secretly, investors are beginning to return to the market as the panicking herd sell off.

The S&P500 formed a very nice looking hammer candle yesterday, which is a candle which when occurring around such short term retreats usually mark a reversal point or at least near to one. Looking back at the past few of such profit taking phases, we can see similar candles marking the area where the S&P500 turns back up around.

Another thing I like is how the total equities put call ratio surged powerfully from a call options inclined position straight into a put options inclined position. You guys know what I always say about big moves like this, right? Yes, that its usually the opposite. Instead of a bearish signal, this is actually a very bullish one as it suggests an overdone sentiment which usually leads to the opposite result.

All in all, this profit taking phase might end sooner and shallower than I originally expected and that played nicely into my
advise over the last few reports to not try to profit to downside but
to use the opportunity to build positions for the next upside.

This
Friday's upcoming Q3 GDP report isn't likely going to surprise to
downside since it is largely expected to retreat from last quarter's
high. As such, any surprise would more likely come from the upside than
downside... could that be the catalyst to return the market to a bullish stance?

Have you made any money in the market so far? My student certainly has! Listen to his testimonial about my Ride the Flow options income system which aims to make 5% to 8% a month regardless of market direction!

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Market Turned Around Right on the Dot!

Exactly as I predicted yesterday morning, US market tanked! Right on the
dot! Can't get better than that! But wait, could this be the start of a
MARKET CRASH? I discuss this in my report for paid subscribers today!
Get my paid report today for just $25 a month by clicking on the yellow
button below my photo on the right now!

Monday, October 23, 2017

US Market Outlook Week 4 October

Last Friday, the US market surged right after I said that should be the start of the profit taking phase I have talked about for the past 2 weeks.

Was I wrong?

Well, not yet. :)

Why is that so? That's because what the S&P500 did last Friday was exactly the same kind of exhaustion peak that typically starts a profit taking phase... a strong single day rally opening with a gap, closing strong with a surge volume. This was the exact pattern that started the S&P500's slide back on 19 June of this year. As such, I would be very careful with trying to get in new longs at this level.

How the S&P500 do today would be critical. If it follows up with another positive day, that will completely reverse the profit taking pattern and signal a continuation pattern especially in this strong intermediate and primary bull trend.

Even under such uncertain conditions, my Ride the Flow system continues to produce its average monthly profit, adding a nice 4.5% to our portfolio this month! :) In fact, one of my students who traded the Ride the Flow system since January of this year is sitting on almost 40% gain on his overall portfolio right now! Here is his voice recorded testimony:

Check out my Ride the Flow system and find out how you can make 5 to 8% every month on your portfolio easily under every market condition now!

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Friday, October 20, 2017

It Starts At Last...

Even though the S&P500 and the Dow did close positive yesterday, it was actually a very bearish day and one which should at last set that profit taking I have been talking about over the past 2 weeks into motion.

In my last report, I mentioned that the Nasdaq moving higher is something I won't take lightly as it has the tendency to lead the Dow and the S&P500, or basically the market. However, the Nasdaq gave in to reality yesterday and made its strongest single day negative close of the month. Even though the Dow and the S&P500 did close higher, they were so marginally higher and spent so much of the day in negative territory that I won't be too quick to call that a true positive day. In fact, bond yields were also lower as investors return to the safety of bonds.

All in all, yesterday was to me a very bearish day and one which should set the start of the kind of profit taking phase I have spoke of since 2 weeks ago.

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Cautiously Higher Market...

The US market closed marginally higher again yesterday as it continues to climb CAUTIOUSLY higher.

Since last week, professional non participation and profit taking has been evident along with largely indisputable technical signals. Even though the market has been largely sideways so far, it has also been cautiously and gently still edging higher. I would have expected the market to be more sideways bearish inclined rather than bullish inclined at this point. The Nasdaq is also powering onwards higher and being typically the leader of the 3 major indices, I won't take this lightly.

That prompted me to look deeper to see if I actually missed anything.

Looking at bond yields, it is evidently still not behaving in a way that truly reflects a bullish stock market as it did not actually rise over the past few days like it should in a strong bull market. Looking at individual stocks, many of the stocks that I track actually closed lower over the past few days as well, unlike in truly bullish markets where these stocks usually close in the same direction of the market. (this is my personal basket of stocks I use for confirming the "inside story" of a market movement. when a market movement is due to just a few very strong stocks while the general market remains weak, these stocks would usually be weak as well)

However, on the other hand, even though I continue to see reasons to be cautious as this point, my Star Trading System continued to place us into new call options positions over the past few days instead of sitting us out and whenever my opinion and my Star Trading System's conflict, more than half the time my Star Trading System is correct.

All of these tells me that this is a very uncertain condition and one which warrants extreme caution. This is not the time to be fully committed to either direction. In fact, I cut my new call options positions fund commitment by half over the past few days as well.

For now, the market remains in a short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Looks Like No Breakout Yet...

Welcome to Week 3 October!

This is also options expiration week for plain vanilla options and my Ride the Flow system is looking to yet another profitable month coming up this Friday! Indeed, the Ride the Flow system is my proudest and yet least understood options trading methodology to profit from any market direction with 5 mins attention per WEEK.

I change my mind now about what I said late last week to be a possible early end to this profit taking phase in the US market. Even though the market did close positive last Friday, I am just not seeing the kind of strength and participation that should be typical of a truly bullish day. Bond yields were lower across the board even though total equities put call ratio dropped in favor of call options trading. Such a split in opinion tells me that the market might not be ready for a breakout yet and we should see the profit taking sideways, slightly bearish inclined market, go into this week.

However, I continue to not see any evidence that this could be anything more than what we saw back in June and August and therefore not a good time to be short as well. In fact, I think this is a perfect time to be looking for new longs in order to be prepositioned for the next leg up...

What? Leg UP?

Yes, Leg UP.

So far, I don't see anything in the economic data, bond yields or other major market cycle indicators to suggest that this rally is in danger. In fact, filtering out the noise from the news, Trump seems to be doing an excellent job building up business in US and therefore, as long as he doesn't get impeached, I don't see why this rally cannot go on for another 6 months.

For now, the US market remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

US Market Continues Sideways As Predicted....

Exactly as I have predicted on Monday morning, the US market continued to trade in a largely sideways fashion as the profit taking phase unfolds.

The confusion in the market continues as bond yields and total equities put call ratio continues to point in different directions. As such, I would expect a continuation of this profit taking phase as I have predicted in my report on Monday morning with no change.

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Monday, October 09, 2017

Possible Profit Taking Week Ahead

After my report last Friday, the US market promptly closed slightly negative last Friday with the super overheated S&P500 closing marginally lower by 0.11% or 2.74 points. Last Friday's jobs report turned in way lower than the already lower expectation due to the effects of the Hurricane being reflected in last Friday's report. With the S&P500 making the fastest series of new historical highs in over 20 years and its position perfectly placed for yet another profit taking phase (as I mentioned in last Thursday's report), I have little doubt that this week and the next is going to be a high probability sideways, slightly bearish inclined market.

Why do I think won't this be the start of a bigger more significant intermediate correction?

Well, on the intermediate time frame, the market isn't due for something like that yet. On the intermediate time frame, the market is at the start of a new bullish leg that has just completed a bullish reversal out of the last sideways phase, as such, the market continues to be bullish inclined in the mid term. Furthermore, even though jobs report was bad last Friday, it was pretty much expected, the ISM index last week did turn in better than expected, suggesting that the US economy is continuing to grow. Many analysts may think that the Fed are behind the curve on this now and are holding rates steady only they don't know what else to do and is helping the market go into a bubble. Well, I can only say that these "experts" obviously think they are cleverer than the most brilliant minds, minds who probably taught their professors that taught them in college. I personally won't think so or I would be sitting on the Feds. The economy is growing but its not strong enough to be aggressively loading on interest rates yet. With bond yields still at very reasonable level and with a very healthy slope, I don't see any signs of danger capable of shaking the intermediate and primary trend yet.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

S&P500 Makes 7th Straight Win... I Don't Like What I am Seeing...

The S&P500 made its 7th straight winning day yesterday and I am beginning to see more and more signs of cracks... should you be newly long in such a market? Is this when you are thinking about jumping in? I revealed these in my report to paid subscribers today!

Yes, I only post my reports publicly every other day so if you wish to
receive all my reports, including the one today, please subscribe by
hitting the yellow button beneath my profit photo on the right!

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

S&P500 Makes 6 Straight Positive Days

Despite showing the secret signs of uncertainty and sluggishness that I mentioned in my report for paid subscribers yesterday, the US market continued to close into new highs with the S&P500 leading the way with its 6th positive day and another historical high. Was I wrong? I don't think so...

Even though the market continues to climb higher, the internals today continue to fail to line up in a way a typical truly bullish day should. Bond yields continue to hardly change as investors continue to sit out on this rally while a look at the total equities put call ratio shows a jump in the direction of call options trading. Both of these, with the S&P500 being at historical high and its 6 straight winning day as well as declining volume going into the past few new highs, tells me that this is a short term dangerous area where profit taking is very likely to happen. And given the relatively steep climb since late August out of the last intermediate consolidation, the market do look like its set up and due for yet another period of consolidation similar to what we saw back in June and July.

In fact, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers took profit on more of our existing call options positions yesterday in anticipation of some uncertainty soon. And if you have missed this rally so far, this is definitely not the time to jump in newly long. (if you missed out this time round, don't miss it again the next time round! Join me for just $1 now!)

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Market Shows Secret Signs of Sluggishness...

Even though the US market closed extremely strongly yesterday as I have expected in yesterday morning's report, it also triggered a few secret signs of sluggishness that may suggest this rally could be in danger. I revealed these in my report to paid subscribers today!

Yes, I only post my reports publicly every other day so if you wish to
receive all my reports, including the one today, please subscribe by
hitting the yellow button beneath my profit photo on the right!

Monday, October 02, 2017

Market Resumes Bullishness After 3 Secret Signals!

Welcome to October 2017!

Last Thursday morning before market, I mentioned that I spotted 3 secret bullish signals that suggested that the market may have ended its short profit taking phase and will resume its previous bull trend. And right on the dot, from Thursday onwards, the market just went up and UP! The S&P500 also closed a new historical high, leading the way for the other two major market indices.

Me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers also begun to see profit come in from all the call options positions that we have prepositioned prior to this move! We took profit on 2 of these positions and are holding another 3 very profitable call options position, ready to ride along with this new leg up! Did you profit from last week's move? If you didn't you really should just do yourself a favor and join me for just $1! Click here to join my Master's Stock Options Picks for just $1!

So far, I don't see any reason why this rally shouldn't continue into this week as the Dow and the Nasdaq need to catch up with the S&P500. This is also the first week of October and like all first weeks of the month, we welcome the two most important economic data; the ISM index on Monday and Jobs Report on Friday. ISM index has beaten expectations for the past 4 months and is now at a point where it is widely expected to take a bit of a retreat, as such, even if it does turn in low this time round, it shouldn't affect the market at all. Jobs report is also expected to reflect hurricane Harvey effects so turning in lower is completely to be expected as well. All in all, with low expectations on these economic data, I don't see anything that could endanger this new bull leg for now. However, I do think this is a little late to be newly long at least for the short term because I suspect about 50% of the short term move for this new leg has already been made so far. This is why being PREPOSITIONED for moves is so so important.

So, for my subscribers who have been prepositioned with me,

Enjoy the ride!

For now, the market return to a short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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