Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

-2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixieand The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

no i’m not trying to give anybody a bad image i’m just fighting for the show if i was trying to give secret circle fans a bad image i wouldn’t be trying to ask nicely with manners

Marc

The CW needs to renew 90210 for a finale season 6 they deserve it even with the bad ratings witch is because of bad timeslot and bad lead..They did amazing in the beginning and had better ratings then Gossip Girl.

We cant compare the ratings from now and before if Gossip Girl was still on they would be WORSE then 0.2 or 0.3.
My Schedule is :

If Hart of Dixie is Renewed it will be for two Seasons because of syndication.

Marc

@CBS viewer

Okay well it would be cancel..

Im not really into syndication stuff….

Charmed

Syndication question – Why can’t shows be syndicated unless they have 88 episodes? Aren’t Ugly Betty and Veronica Mars in syndication? Ugly Betty has 4 seasons but only 85 episodes, so should be short of syndication numbers.

@Everyone regarding Supernatural, Its not that CW wants to move that to friday because its aging but because they need to expose and try out newer shows during the week. Thgey wont air a new series on Friday nights so the best combo is Nikita and Supernatural and they bring viewers to a little watched night. Smallville was still highly rated in the 2009-2010 season but it was moved to Fridays so The CW could air new series like VD in its place.

The CW wants new series likely to follow Arrow and VD on Wed and Thurs. If 90210 gets a final year, I could see CW oving it to Fridays at 9 and then moving Supernatural to Mondays at 9 or 9 maybe to launch a new series and air Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie on Tuesdays. Thats a possibility.

I just expect CW to have 7 originals return this fall, 3 new series, no ANTM
and no reruns Fri at 9.

@Bill – Even if ANTM runs into fall, Its likely CW will premiere there shows in October again (Which is a very smart idea) allowing them to premiere a new series after ANTM ends.

@Everyone – If The CW renews a series for fall they wont have it air as midseason replacement. So if The Carrie Diaries gets renewed or Hart of Dixie, expect them to be on the fall schedule.

Ralphie

Do you guys have any idea how HUGE the rating would be if the CW or some other Network took The Secret Circle back for a second season. Fans are growing by the number. It will slay! Please Bring it back!

Richard Steven Hack

Ralphie: Yeah, the TSC ratings would be doing a .3… That’s not “huge”.

Hardcore fans of a show are almost ALWAYS much smaller in number than the general audience. And unless they’re Nielsen families (or their buzz can influence Nielsen families), they don’t matter at all.

Richard Steven Hack

Ralphie: If hardcore fans mattered, Firefly would be back on the air in new seasons. They just had a ten-year cancellation reunion last year and five thousand people showed up. Go look at the Youtube video. THAT’S hardcore fans!

Richard Steven Hack

Carrie Diaries has zero chance of being renewed. A first season show with a .51 season average so far? Seriously? Even the CW is not that desperate…

Reposting from another thread on BATB:

I’m not one to pine for the return of TSC, but that show was considerably better than BATB in terms of quality. And the ratings for TSC were significantly better than BATB. It debuted at 1.3 and did not drop to .7 until episode 12, bounced back to .8 for two episodes, hit .7 for two more episodes, then one .6, then a consistent .5 for the last four episodes along with a steady decline in viewers.

BATB simply has not done that well. It debuted at 1.2 and dropped to .7 in its second episode. It’s never hit .8 or above since. It’s fluctuated between .5 and .7. Its season average is .65 and it’s been losing viewers steadily.And the “spring effect” hasn’t hit yet. I expect it to be doing .4 at best before it ends its run and its season average is likely to drop to .5.

Therefore there is zero reason to renew BATB. HoD’s average is higher and it’s closer to syndication. If ANY low-rated CW show has a shot at renewal, it’s HoD.