Raising the stakes in Indonesia

This takes a mind leap, but try it. Think about Bali from the terrorists’ point
of view. Taking the effect on Australia alone, it’s been a sweepingly successful
operation. With the Australian death toll likely to top 100, the people of this
country have been made to feel more insecure than at any time since World War
II.

Travel in Asia has become a frightening prospect. Australians have been urged
to leave Indonesia, and take greater care in several other countries. The government
has been condemned by traumatised families and others for not issuing a tough
enough earlier warning that might have dissuaded holiday-makers. Victims’ relatives
have criticised it for failing to crash through international red tape slowing
the return of remains.

The cognoscenti are debating what changes are needed in defence and foreign
policies. A sharper edge of fear has been injected into the argument over whether
Australia should join a war against Iraq, while the US is keeping up the pressure.

On today’s ABC Insiders, American secretary of state Colin Powell says
pointedly that this is the time “to re-double our efforts to make sure that
this campaign against terrorism is not done only locally but regionally and
throughout the world — and I hope that is a case that will persuade the Australian
people’’.

In times of extreme stress even fundamental values can be questioned. On Friday
3AW’s Neil Mitchell asked John Howard: “If the perpetrators can be caught, would
Australia argue for execution as a punishment?’’ The PM equivocated. “I haven’t
thought of that. I am normally opposed . . . This is anything but a normal situation.
I think perhaps I can address that when they’re caught.’’");document.write("

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The central, insidious nature of today’s terrorism is that an attack has a
multiplier effect, creating shafts of uncertainty and fear that spread broadly
and penetrate deeply. It is particularly unnerving for a country like Australia.

In the Middle East, where bomb attacks bring tragedy regularly, the pain of
a Bali would not be less but would lack the shock of the new.

Not only has Bali left Australians feeling, as individuals, at risk in their
region, but it has raised the worry of something dreadful happening at home.
More than two decades ago, we had such an attack, a bomb outside Sydney’s Hilton
Hotel. It was appalling but different. Only three were killed — and it did not
come after a September 11.

The world knew terrorism, but not yet the Age of Terrorism.

Because Australia has been so safe, and despite our World Trade Centre deaths,
we tend to think of ourselves as immune.

The debate over the travel warning partly reflects a belief that disasters
are preventable and total protection is possible. It is understandable that
grieving families would say that the government should have issued stronger
advice. But how reasonable is it?

The inquiry Howard announced will give a more definitive picture but a few
observations are worth making. Of course, in retrospect, it would have been
desirable for Australian officials to have strengthened the warning after American
intelligence suggested Bali could be unsafe. But before in our minds we lynch
nameless officers, remember the context. The data raised the spectre of danger
in particular places, including Bali, if certain individuals were arrested.

They weren’t, and the Australian warning already referred to past and possible
future bombings. The condition for heightened risk hadn’t occurred. To have
simply included a reference to Bali, or bars, would probably have had little
effect on tourists (though, as it turned out, it would have covered the government’s
back).

A harsh warning, based on this problematic evidence, could have hit Bali’s
economy hard. Whatever the judgment on the past warning, we can assume future
ones will err on the side of extreme caution. But Australians, who will continue
to travel widely in Asia, must accept a new level of danger. And the brutal
irony is now that Indonesia is doing what Australia has long urged and begun
chasing terrorists — including yesterday arresting Jemaah Islamiah’s so-called
spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir — in the short term that action in itself
has dramatically escalated risks.

Foreign Minister Alexander Downer says he doesn’t think the terrorists had
Australians specifically in mind. But if they had wanted to see a fresh rift
in Indonesia’s relations with Australia, at least they have been disappointed
on that score. It is early days, but so far the tragedy has brought the governments
closer.

Indonesia’s acting ambassador, Imron Cotan, says: “Out of this carnage the
bilateral ties are strengthened in a manner unprecedented since the East Timor
debacle. This is a new starting point for the relationship to progress to a
higher point of development.’’

He says President Megawati has been “very, very outreaching — she made it very
clear she will cooperate with Australia as best we can’’.

But Coton argues there has been insufficient understanding in Australian criticisms
that Indonesia failed to do enough earlier to fight terrorism. He says about
2 per cent of Indonesia’s overwhelmingly Muslim population are “radicals’’.

“We don’t want to treat the 2 per cent in a way that they could radicalise
the rest. That’s the delicacy of the problem.’’

To critics who say Indonesia should have acted against Jemaah Islamiah previously,
he says: “JI is not listed in Indonesia. Bashir is leader of Majelis Mujahidin
Indonesia. We’ve been monitoring it very closely — it hasn’t violated the internal
regulations of Indonesia. Indonesia is now a very democratic country where civil
liberties are highly appreciated. You can’t take legal action against anybody
without concrete evidence.’’

But Bali transformed the situation, “giving us a basis to take legal action
by obtaining presidential decrees’’.

The Indonesian Government is also cracking down with new legislation.

“My president is very determined,’’ says Cotan.

Downer has gone out of his way to stress Indonesian cooperation this past
week. But the most significant remarks about Australia-Asia relations after
Bali were delivered by Peter Costello. His address, immediately labelled Keatingesque,
is being closely scrutinised in Canberra political, bureaucratic and diplomatic
circles for what it reveals of the attitudes of the man who will succeed Howard.

Costello put Bali into a wide and historical context, embracing the Asian perspective
as well as the Australian.

“The events . . . have reminded us again all too clearly, and all too painfully,
how Asia and Australia are inextricably linked. Asia’s security problems are
our security problems. Asia’s future will influence our future,’’ he told the
Asia Society.

“Australians are part of Asia. They are found working, travelling and living
throughout the Asian region . . . “This senseless carnage has wasted young and
precious Australian lives. And Singaporean, Japanese, Korean and, of course,
Indonesian lives, as well as citizens from many other countries.

“Perhaps these twisted perpetrators thought they were punishing Westerners,
like Australians. Or perhaps they thought they were punishing Balinese business
interests. Perhaps they think that killing people will somehow lead to a change
in the Indonesian government . . .

“The withdrawal of tourism, and the withdrawal of investment as a result,
will harm Indonesia. It will damage the Indonesian economy. It will cause additional
hardship to the Indonesian people. What we must be careful about is that it
does not lead to a withdrawal of Australian engagement with Indonesia.

“Australians are enmeshed in the rich tapestry of Asia, as Asia is an increasingly
important influence on Australia. Moments of crisis highlight our common destiny.
In 1997 it was a financial crisis. Today it is a human tragedy. At these points
of crisis we must not withdraw. We must heighten our engagement and our cooperation.
We must work together. Australia stands ready to do so.’’