Wisconsin’s Voter-ID Law Suppressed 200,000 Votes in 2016 (Trump Won by 22,748)

A new study shows how voter-ID laws decreased turnout among African-American and Democratic voters.

May 9, 2017

Donald Trump disembarks from Air Force One after arriving in West Palm Beach, Florida, on March 3, 2017. (AP Photo / Luis M. Alvarez)

Ready to fight back?

Sign up for Take Action Now and we’ll send you three meaningful actions every Tuesday.

Thank you for signing up. For more from The Nation, check out our latest issue.

Subscribe now for as little as $2 a month!

Support Progressive Journalism

The Nation is reader supported: Chip in $10 or more to help us continue to write about the issues that matter.

Fight Back!

Sign up for Take Action Now and we’ll send you three meaningful actions you can each week.

Travel With The Nation

Be the first to hear about Nation Travels destinations, and explore the world with kindred spirits.

Sign up for our Wine Club today.

Did you know you can support The Nation by drinking wine?

Prior to the 2016 election, Eddie Lee Holloway Jr., a 58-year-old African-American man, moved from Illinois to Wisconsin, which implemented a strict voter-ID law for the first time in 2016. He brought his expired Illinois photo ID, birth certificate, and Social Security card to get a photo ID for voting in Wisconsin, but the DMV in Milwaukee rejected his application because the name on his birth certificate read “Eddie Junior Holloway,” the result of a clerical error when it was issued. Holloway ended up making seven trips to different public agencies in two states and spent over $200 in an attempt to correct his birth certificate, but he was never able to obtain a voter ID in Wisconsin. Before the election, his lawyer for the ACLU told me Holloway was so disgusted he left Wisconsin for Illinois.

Related Article

Holloway’s story was sadly familiar in 2016. According to federal court records, 300,000 registered voters, 9 percent of the electorate, lacked strict forms of voter ID in Wisconsin. A new study by Priorities USA, shared exclusively with The Nation, shows that strict voter-ID laws, in Wisconsin and other states, led to a significant reduction in voter turnout in 2016, with a disproportionate impact on African-American and Democratic-leaning voters. Wisconsin’s voter-ID law reduced turnout by 200,000 votes, according to the new analysis. Donald Trump won the state by only 22,748 votes.

The study compared turnout in states that adopted strict voter-ID laws between 2012 and 2016, like Wisconsin, to states that did not.

While states with no change to voter identification laws witnessed an average increased turnout of +1.3% from 2012 to 2016, Wisconsin’s turnout (where voter ID laws changed to strict) dropped by -3.3%. If turnout had instead increased by the national no-change average, we estimate that over 200,000 more voters would have voted in Wisconsin in 2016.

The lost voters skewed more African-American and more Democrat. For example, Wisconsin’s 2016 electorate was 6.1% more Republican, and 5.7% less Democrat, than the group of ‘lost voters’. Furthermore, the WI electorate was 3.7% more White and 3.8% less African American than the group of ‘lost voters.’ This analysis suggests that the 200,000 lost voters would have both been more racially diverse and have voted more Democratic.

(Priorities USA is a progressive advocacy group and Super PAC that supported Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012. The study was conducted by Civis Analytics, a data science firm founded by the chief analytics officer for Obama’s reelection campaign in 2012.)

Though Wisconsin saw the most dramatic reduction in turnout among voter-ID states, it was reflective of a worrisome broader national trend.

In states where the voter identification laws did not change between ’12 and ’16, turnout was up +1.3%. In states where ID laws changed to non-strict (AL, NH, RI) turnout increased less, and was only up by +0.7%. In states where ID laws changed to strict (MS, VA, WI) turnout actually decreased by – 1.7%.

4

5

The drop in turnout in these six states led to 400,000 fewer votes relative to turnout in states where ID laws did not change. In Mississippi, Virginia, and Wisconsin, strict voter-ID laws had an especially pronounced negative impact on African-American voters.

In counties where African Americans make up less than 10% of the population AND there were no changes to voter ID laws, 2016 turnout was up +1.9% from 2012, but in similar <10% African American counties where ID laws changed to be strict, total turnout decreased by -0.7%. In counties where African Americans make up more than 40% of the population, however, 2016 turnout was down -2.2% from 2012 in states where ID laws did not change, but down -5 points in states where ID laws changed to be strict.

The study also compared turnout in Wisconsin to Minnesota, which has very similar demographics but no voter-ID law, and found “turnout in African-American counties dropped off at significantly higher levels than in their Minnesota-counterparts.”

It’s important to note that this study was conducted by a Democratic Party–affiliated group and has not been peer-reviewed or gone through the typical academic vetting process. While some studies have shown big reductions in turnout among minority voters because of voter-ID laws, others have not. But the Priorities USA study is consistent with a 2014 study by the Government Accountability Office, which found that strict voter-ID laws in Kansas and Tennessee reduced turnout by 2 percent, enough to swing a close election, with the largest drop-off among newly registered voters, young voters, and voters of color.

Ready to Fight Back? Sign Up For Take Action Now

This study provides more evidence for the claim that voter-ID laws are designed not to stop voter impersonation fraud, which is virtually nonexistent, but to make it harder for certain communities to vote. This matters greatly today, because 87 bills to restrict access to the ballot have been introduced in 29 states this year, including voter-ID laws in 19 states. Arkansas and Iowa have already passed strict voter-ID laws in 2017.

“Americans’ fundamental right to vote is under attack by Republican governors and state legislatures around the country,” said Guy Cecil, Chairman of Priorities USA. “Under the false pretense of combating voter fraud, Republicans are passing laws that make it more difficult and time-consuming for average citizens to participate in the democratic process.”

Ask yourself why the Democrats did absolutely nothing to address voter suppression for several decades even when they had the Justice Dept(bailed out Wall Street instead)

Then ask yourself what the results of that perfidy are

Then ask yourself if this is a party worth supporting

(32)(51)

Heath Wattssays:

September 27, 2017 at 9:27 am

If the Democrats were being deceitful for several decades, where is the evidence for them suppressing voters like this article claims that the GOP did?

Among other reasons, the Democratic candidate (i.e., Hillary Clinton) was worth supporting, because she was not aligned with the alt-right (i.e., white supremacists, neo-Nazis, KKK, and fascists), did not collaborate with the Russians to win, was a candidate who would not have us on the brink of war with N. Korea, and would be able to perform her duties in a presidential manner unlike President Trump.

(4)(0)

Gary Marasays:

May 10, 2017 at 6:17 pm

Recounting the Wisconsin votes was like closing the barn door after the horse is gone. Never mind the obvious voter suppression and flipped touchscreen machines without paper trails. 830,703 completed absentee early votes sat around polling places in envelopes and were under the complete control of partisan county and district clerks for up to several weeks before being fed into the scanning machines on Election Day. They were alphabetized and available for adjustment well before they were fed in to the voting machines. This was justified because voters can legally change their ballot prior to voting day. The Wisconsin Election Commission even prevented voters from signing the voter lists during early voting so that there could be no comparison of the signatures on the absentee voter envelopes. Doing a recount merely diverted attention from the real fraud here. Several other northern Midwestern states use the same absentee and early voter methodology.

(43)(2)

Gary Marasays:

May 13, 2017 at 1:02 pm

More background info available if anyone is serious about really looking into this usurping of my secret ballot.

(9)(0)

Jake Hawkessays:

May 10, 2017 at 11:32 am

Kathy Keating:
Apparently no one ever told you about "links" genius. There are several attached to THIS ARTICLE that link to real studies that back up the facts stated here.
Here is one for example:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/15/do-voter-identification-laws-suppress-minority-voting-yes-we-did-the-research/?utm_term=.a4572b5580c1
So what you do is move your cursor over the "link" and click on it.... you do know what "click" means, don't you? If you want to get really sophisticated you can even "right click" on it and you can chose to open it in a new tab... This technology thing is exciting nes pas?

Trump voters....... (heavy sigh)....

(28)(14)

Katch Keatingsays:

May 10, 2017 at 1:05 am

I have no doubt that this could be true -- but this isn't an article it is a press release from :

"Priorities USA is a progressive advocacy group and Super PAC that supported Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012. The study was conducted by Civis Analytics, a data science firm founded by the chief analytics officer for Obama’s reelection campaign in 2012.?"

I want an honest paper, not a shill for the DNC.

Show me an article with some **independent** analysis and reporting and I'll start taking it a lot more seriously.

(68)(37)

Ranganath Nayaksays:

May 9, 2017 at 9:19 pm

I am sick and tired of reading about how the Dark Force outfoxed us once again. Are we EVER going to have a comeback or are we just going to complain forever?

(31)(10)

Laurel Podraskysays:

May 9, 2017 at 6:21 pm

This is the only way trump or any republican could win. The republican governors/and or legislators have to do voter suppression or gerrymandering. Legally or honestly they cannot win.

(63)(46)

David Holtzmansays:

May 9, 2017 at 5:53 pm

This looks like B.S. See https://electionlawblog.org/?p=92447

(40)(25)

Laura Rosesays:

May 9, 2017 at 4:32 pm

Great article. Now what are we going to do about the obvious? We can and should continue to fight it in the courts but we need to get anyone who needs an ID an ID. We can raise the money, put boots on the ground and start getting these people to the right places to get them. We need to stop whining and proactive.

(59)(12)

Clark M Shanahansays:

May 12, 2017 at 7:49 am

You would think that some of the Dem. Party's deep pockets could invest in that.
Then you have volunteers and lawyers that can work pro-bono.
For Wisconsin, the suppression did not come out of the clear blue sky.

(7)(7)

Clark M Shanahansays:

May 9, 2017 at 4:25 pm

Tell me, Ari, Did this all pass under the State Dems radar?
If not, did they place ads in the Black media, warning voters and offering free legal aid to help out those being given the run-around?
Along with Hill not even bothering to show, if this is true, it certainly shows Walker's ruthlessness along with clear malpractice by the state Dem. Party. If only Obama had put on his walking shoes and marched with the striking state workers as he had promised.

Here is a list of Priorities USA donors:
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgave2.php?cmte=C00495861

(24)(18)

Clark M Shanahansays:

May 9, 2017 at 5:01 pm

Did AG Loretta Lynch drop the ball?
She couldn't have demanded that provisional ballots be made available?

(12)(13)

John Parfreysays:

May 9, 2017 at 4:53 pm

I keep telling my friends that 2010 was the seminal year for Republicans who gained control of dozens of statehouses and gerrymandered like crazy. With Trump's election last November, we're looking at another fifty years of conservative domination of the supreme court and likely big wins for Republicans in 2018 and 2020, which will set up another redistricting debacle for the next ten years. They control everything, and with the help of Wikileaks, Russians, Super PACs, Citizens United and many other dirty tricks, I think Dems have been outmaneuvered for decades to come. I'll die in a Republican nation. Shit.

(56)(14)

John Parfreysays:

May 9, 2017 at 4:49 pm

It happened because Dems sat on their behinds in 2010 and Repubs gerrymandered the hell out of the state. Voter registration is 55-45 Dem, but the legislature's lower house is 60-40 Republican and the Senate has a smaller majority. State supreme court is filled with Scott Walker appointees, so Wisconsin is now essentially a one-party state. That's how it happened.

(37)(8)

Jacqueline Mccaffreysays:

May 9, 2017 at 2:50 pm

So was it the Comey letter, the Russians, sexism, the media, Bernie, or voter suppression?

(53)(28)

Dan Bolgersays:

July 18, 2017 at 8:25 pm

All that and more. Wiki leaks weekly, phony Benghazi, and phony e-mail idiocy, and more, too.
It's known as as a cumulative tsunami.

(8)(4)

Clark M Shanahansays:

May 9, 2017 at 4:33 pm

As David Axelrod said last week: "It takes a lot of work to lose to Trump".
Perhaps "it takes a village" (note my outspend arms as I wrote that...).

(24)(11)

Gary Owen Faassays:

May 9, 2017 at 1:52 pm

This has been the 'game plan' of the Republicans for decades, block Voters from voting and they can in turn dismantle our form of Government for the benefits of the very wealthy. The Republicans have failed to honor President Eisenhower's request in his farewell address to the USA. He specifically warned against the Military/Industrial Complex which was depleting the US Treasury for ongoing Wars and using the largest part of our Nation's Budget. He spoke of the cost of a single bomber being used not for the bomber but for better schools here in our Nation. The Pentagon will receive almost 1 Trillion this year and more next year, for all of the Government Contractors for more weapons, even as our roads and bridges are in very poor shape. The United States will spend around far less on Public Education, 50 Billion for all American students, if it's not siphoned off by Betsy DeVos for her friend's Charter Schools. The more Voters Illegally removed by Private Contractors, Cross Check, with phony manipulation of Voters rolls the more the Republicans can deny US Citizens of their Right to participate as Voters in our Elections. Stop it now before our "ship of state" is intentionally sunk by greed.

(68)(35)

Ken Crearysays:

May 9, 2017 at 1:34 pm

Where's a link to the study? It would be nice to review the report fist hand...

(40)(1)

Carolyn Herzsays:

May 9, 2017 at 1:04 pm

I have heard it said that, over the past several years, the Democratic Party has been almost laser-focussed on the presidential election, principally, I guess, on Hillary Clinton's presidential election. Democrats have suffered huge losses in state legislatures and governors' offices. If they had paid more attention to state and congressional elections, they could have prevented Republicans from gaining sufficient majorities to enact these voter suppression laws. So, the lesson is that, even if what you want is to be president, you need to focus on other elections as well.

(48)(8)

Walter Pewensays:

June 18, 2017 at 12:17 pm

Hog Hillary-she created it. Thank God we are done with it. Hillary would have had it no other way. Deep inside, really think it could have been any different?

(9)(12)

Dan Bolgersays:

July 18, 2017 at 8:29 pm

Sexism example.
Pathetic sad statement.

(8)(3)

Charles Packsays:

May 9, 2017 at 12:50 pm

Who can be surprised by this? What is surprising is that the dnc wants to ignore the issue because they believe discussion will suppress the vote. They need to take it head on and correct the prinlem because it will only get worse. Republicans cannot win on the issues. But, they are extraordinarily successful in winning by election fraud, voter suppression, deflection and misrepresentation of facts, etc. if democrats want our support, they need to get a spine.

(32)(21)

Lisa Brazzlesays:

May 9, 2017 at 12:46 pm

Please check out Greg Palast and his report. He's been on the case for a long time. This happened in many key swing states. Trump forecast this when he smugly said the African Americans didn't come out to vote. In truth AA women come out in larger percentages than any other demographic. But there was extreme voter disenfranchisement. And not just in Wisconsin. http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/

Excerpt:

Before a single vote was cast, the election was fixed by GOP and Trump operatives.

Starting in 2013 – just as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act – a coterie of Trump operatives, under the direction of Kris Kobach, Kansas Secretary of State, created a system to purge 1.1 million Americans of color from the voter rolls of GOP–controlled states.

The system, called Crosscheck, is detailed in my Rolling Stone report,
“The GOP’s Stealth War on Voters,” 8/24/2016.

On Tuesday, we saw Crosscheck elect a Republican Senate and as President, Donald Trump. The electoral putsch was aided by nine other methods of attacking the right to vote of Black, Latino and Asian-American voters, methods detailed in my book and film, including “Caging,” “purging,” blocking legitimate registrations, and wrongly shunting millions to “provisional” ballots that will never be counted.

(65)(21)

Walter Pewensays:

May 9, 2017 at 12:41 pm

Thanks for addressing this. I've been somewhat angry at the fact that nobody has been talking about it. I believed immediately after the election this single issue of voter disenfranchisement potentially threw the election to Trump. Why don't people discuss it? Instead we get well paid shills like Joan Walsh pontificating on sociology. Wasting money.