What is in this article?:

We recently asked leaders of the various U.S. beef production sectors to provide
their personal thoughts on the following question: “Looking 10 years down the road, what do you think will look the most different in the industry relative to today?”

Commercial cow-calf sector

"I believe there will be continued consolidation in the U.S. beef industry. Cow numbers will not increase fast enough to keep all feedlots and packing plants open. I predict some movement of packers and feeders out of Texas because of the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer and the cost of shipping corn out of the Corn Belt.

"Ranches with full-time operators will get larger and fewer. Economies of size are very important on ranches with fewer than 2,000 cows. There will still be many small part-time operators, but I predict some consolidation among smaller ranches as well.

"There will be more separation of ownership and management of larger ranches. Ownership may continue to consist of several founding family members, with a single family member — or someone else — managing.

"In addition, we can expect much more sophistication in the use of DNA technology for animal improvement. We’ll also discover unintended and unpredicted consequences.

"There will be a growing tendency to move acres between cash crops and pasture in response to the relative prices of corn and cattle.

"And I think there will an increased value for cull cows. This is due to changes in consumer preferences for hamburger that happen because of the price of other cuts of beef and ease of use. This could change a number of things back on the ranch, including herd turnover rate and the willingness to cull poor-producing cows."

Discuss this Article 4

Thomas Howard (not verified)

on Jan 14, 2014

At 83 I just turned my cow herd over with home bred heifers (two years). I am 83. Nothing changes for ten years, then I am done. My local auction might quit and I would have to find a direct buyer able to pick up at the farm.

Vertical integration is really difficult and requires multiple and very different skill sets, but it is doable. CharLean demonstrated such with our success, but I have been unable to pass that ambition and capacity to a second generation yet.

O'Brien makes the most sense. Little will change. Teichert also has some good points. On the whole, the cow segment will change the least, as has always been true. Most cow herds (as opposed to most of the cows) are not operated as a business because they don't have to be.