Tax calculator

With just a handful of days to go, Oregon's hotly contested tax election has shifted from a war of words to a highly sophisticated race to get voters to hand in their ballots.

But not just any voters. Both campaigns are using cutting-edge database and phone technology that factor in everything from consumer habits to reading preferences to select voters who could be the deciding factor in an election that both sides acknowledge has grown very tight.

"In a close election, every vote is critical," says Pat McCormick, spokesman for opponents of Measures 66 and 67, which would raise taxes on high-income earners and corporations. "And this is going to come down to the wire."

That's one area, at least, where both sides agree. And both have launched intensive efforts and hundreds of volunteers to ferret out reluctant or absent-minded voters and urge them to meet Tuesday's 8 p.m. deadline.

"We know, in special elections like this, turnout is what matters more than anything else," said Elana Guiney, spokeswoman for Vote Yes for Oregon, supporters of the tax increases. "Our biggest concern right now is making sure people remember there's an election."

In the old days -- as in, a few years ago -- campaigns would scour voter registration lists and nag those who hadn't yet voted to do their civic duty. That's so yesterday.

Today, it's all about "micro-targeting," says Greg Leo, spokesman for the state Republican Party, which has assumed get-out-the-vote duties for McCormick's group, Oregonians Against Job-Killing Taxes.

"We're looking at all sorts of demographics," Leo says. "A voter who would pay their bills on time tends to be conservative. We look at things like magazine subscriptions."

Magazines?

A Forbes subscriber is more likely to get a call than, say, one who reads Mother Jones, Leo said.

Many voters take offense that campaigns can find out whether they've voted or whether their ballot is sitting somewhere under the Sunday comics. They might be surprised to learn how much other personal information is out there -- and being used.

A handful of national companies compile such data and sell them to political campaigns and other marketers, Guiney said. Her campaign has databases and equipment similar to what the Republicans are using, she said, but their strategies differ.

"Things like whether you've paid your bills or what magazines you read -- what we've found is that information is a lot less predictive of how you're going to vote" than what groups someone belongs to, Guiney said, such as AARP, or, locally, Stand for Children.

Overall, Guiney says, the higher the turnout statewide, the better the chance for the measures to pass. A higher turnout would mean more voting by younger voters and voters who were brought on board during last year's presidential race. They tend to skew toward the liberal end of the political spectrum and would be more likely to support tax increases for public services.

Leo said a high turnout could favor the opposition, however, if the extra votes come from areas south of Multnomah County, which tend to be more conservative.

As of late Thursday, statewide turnout stood at 36 percent, with 758,234 casting ballots so far, out of about 2 million registered voters. The statewide tallies are slightly behind those of individual counties, but provide the best overall turnout snapshot.

Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown predicts an eventual turnout of between 62 percent and 64 percent. She said voters are holding onto their ballots later and later as they get used to vote by mail.

"We anticipate a spike in the weekend right before the election," she said.

One troubling sign for supporters: Multnomah County, which is expected to provide the bulk of "yes" votes for the measures, stood dead last among counties in turnout -- at 32 percent as of Thursday afternoon, according to the state elections division. County records put the number at 34 percent.

"I can't really tell you why we're low," said Tim Scott, county elections director. He expects a 60 percent turnout in the county.

Portland pollster Mike Riley expects a higher-than-usual turnout for a special election because of the intense feelings surrounding the measures, and the powerful ad campaigns by both sides.

"I've never seen such a divisive issue," Riley said. But the time for persuading people to vote one way or the other has largely passed.

"I suspect most people have made up their minds on this," he said, "so it's going to be about getting the turnout."