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Sunday, 5 October 2014

Indian Air Force
Chief Arup Raha today warned that older aircraft were on their last leg and
with new acquisitions running behind schedule, the IAF’s fighting capability
might be blunted.

The existing
Soviet-era fighter jets of the IAF are scheduled to be phased out over the next
eight years. The IAF presently has 34 fighter jet squadrons (16-18 planes in
each) against the need of 45 squadrons to tackle a simultaneous two-front war
scenario with China and Pakistan.

“There is a delay in each and
every project. Be it the design and development of the indigenous light combat
aircraft (LCA), the acquisition of the 126 medium multirole combat aircraft
(MMRCA) or the design and development of the India-Russia joint venture fifth
generation fighter aircraft (FGFA),” said the Air Chief at a press conference
here today. “We have lost the timelines, overruns are much more than they
should have been. It is definitely a matter of concern,” he said.

The IAF Chief said parts of
the fighter fleet were on their last leg, especially the MiG-21 and needed
replacement.

MiG-21, and MiG-27 squadrons
are slated for progressive phasing out over the 12th Plan (2012-2017) and 13th
Plan (2017-22) periods. Out of its fleet of 260 MiGs, the IAF has 110 upgraded
MiG-21 Bisons. “The drawdown (phasing out of jets) has to be prevented by quick
induction of LCA and MMRCA. However, the FGFA will take some time,” he said.

On the FGFA, he said there
were some technology issues that were being resolved. “The FGFA will fructify
but may not be in the timeline determined earlier. There will be a delay,” he
said. On the MMRCA, Raha said this was the replacement for the MiGs.

Pakistani Taliban
Declare Allegiance to Islamic State and Global Jihad

Islamabad,
Pakistan:The Pakistani Taliban declared
allegiance to Islamic State on Saturday and ordered militants across the region
to help the Middle Eastern jihadist group in its campaign to set up a global
Islamic caliphate.

Islamic State,
which controls swathes of land in Syria and Iraq, has been making inroads into
South Asia, which has traditionally been dominated by local Taliban
insurgencies against both the Pakistan and Afghanistan governments.

The announcement
comes after a September move by al Qaeda chief, Ayman al-Zawahri, to name
former Taliban commander Asim Umar as the "emir" of a new South Asia
branch of the network that masterminded the 2001 attacks on the United States.

Although there is
little evidence of a firm alliance yet between IS and al Qaeda-linked Taliban
commanders, IS activists have been spotted recently in the Pakistani city of
Peshawar distributing pamphlets praising the group.

In a message
marking the Muslim holy festival of Eid al-Adha, the Pakistani Taliban said
they fully supported IS goals.

"Oh our
brothers, we are proud of you in your victories. We are with you in your
happiness and your sorrow," Taliban spokesman Shahidullah Shahid said in a
statement sent to Reuters by email from an unknown location.

"In these
troubled days, we call for your patience and stability, especially now that all
your enemies are united against you. Please put all your rivalries behind you
...

All Muslims in the
world have great expectations of you ... We are with you, we will provide you
with Mujahideen (fighters) and with every possible support."

The statement,
released in Urdu, Pashto and Arabic, was sent after Islamic State militants
beheaded British aid worker Alan Henning in a video posted on Friday,
triggering condemnation by the British and US governments.

It also came
despite recent speculation that the Taliban leadership, whose goal is to topple
the government and set up a Sharia state, is actually wary of IS, which is
driven by different ambitions that have little to do with South Asia.

The Pakistani
Taliban, funded by local as well as foreign charity donations from wealthy
supporters in the Gulf and elsewhere, operate separately from the Afghan
insurgents of the same name, but are loosely aligned with them.

There are concerns
about further turmoil in the region as most US-led foreign troops withdraw from
Afghanistan this year, with groups like the Haqqani network likely to exploit
the security vacuum to strengthen their hold on Afghan regions.

The Haqqani
network, despite being based in Pakistan, is narrowly focused on its insurgency
in Afghanistan and has not commented on IS-related developments.

The Pakistani
Taliban have been beset by bitter internal rivalries over the past year, with
the influential Mehsud tribal faction of the group refusing to accept the
authority of Mullah Fazlullah, who came to power in late 2013.

IS, in an effort
to extend its global reach, could exploit these rivalries to its advantage,
wading into a region ripe with fierce anti-Western ideology and full of young
unemployed men ready to take up guns and fight for Islam.

Lieutenant General
Subrata Saha said here on Saturday the Army has been responding continuously to
the ceasefire violations by Pakistani Rangers.

Unprovoked firing
and ceasefire violations by Pakistani troops at Indian positions along the Line
of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir left one dead and injured four civilians
on Friday.

Two persons were
also injured by in the Swajian sector of Poonch last night.

Pakistan had
earlier violated ceasefire at the shared border on the intervening night of
September 30 and October 1. This is however not the first time the ceasefire
between both neighbours has been violated.

Kashmir has
witnessed almost uninterrupted ceasefire violation by Pakistan since August 15
this year. The fresh violations came after a gap of more than one month along
India-Pakistan border in Jammu and Kashmir.

Addressing a news
conference in Srinagar, General Officer Commanding (GOC), 15 Corps, Lieutenant
General Subrata Saha said they had recovered mortar shells which they are
analyzing.

"Yesterday's
firing lasted for close to four hours, it was not absolutely continuous. It was
intermittent. The highest caliber that we could make out from the bombs and the
blinds that were discovered on the Poonch side was the 120mm mortar bomb. We
are analysing it, we are trying to see where it fits in the larger
picture," said Saha.

Many areas in
Poonch sector of Kashmir have also been affected due to firing. Many villagers
have been injured and some even lost their houses.

Saha assured that
the Indian army is doing all in its might to combat the Pakistani forces at the
border.

"You would
have noticed, whenever there have been such instances of ceasefire violations,
they have been responded to appropriately, both in terms of the response on the
ground along the Line of Control, as also putting them across as per our
ceasefire agreement or shall we say ceasefire understanding norms; we have been
sending the hotline messages. All that action is in progress as much as it is
on the ground outside the various headquarters," he added.

KARACHI:
Pakistan's former president and military ruler General (retired) Pervez
Musharraf has sought to blame India for ceasefire violations along Line of
Control, saying it should stop testing the "patience and resolve" of
Pakistani Army.

Musharraf, who is
facing a treason case in the Supreme Court, said, "Regular ceasefire
violations on the LoC by the Indians is not good for the region and
deplorable."

An Army jawan was
killed and another was injured in an IED blast in Balnoi area of Mendhar in
Jammu and Kashmir on Saturday evening.

Identifying the
deceased jawan as Sepoy Akshaya Godbole and the injured as Sepoy Shubam
Khadatkar, a Defence Ministry spokesman Lt Colonel Manisg Mehta here said that
due were part of a “foot patrol” in the area. Both the jawans were rushed to
the hospital, but Godbole died on the way.

The IED was
suspected to have been planted by militants. The army troops have launched an
operation to sanitize the area, he added.

Pakistani troops
and militants have stepped up activity along the Line of Control. A girl has
died and nearly a dozen others were injured in incidents of unprovoked firing by
Pakistani troops and Rangers along the LoC and the international border during
the past four days.

On Friday,
Pakistani Rangers targeted forward Indian positions along the international
border in Arnia sector. The BSF retaliated to the unprovoked firing by Pakistan
which continued throughout night injuring some civilians in the area.

Earlier during the
day, Pakistani troops had resorted to mortar shelling on civilian areas at
Saujjian in Poonch district, killing a 17-year-old girl and injuring four others.
A few houses at Gigriyan village were also damaged.

Sources said that
Pakistani troops have restarted unprovoked firing on Indian side after a lull
of nearly a month along the LoC to provide cover fire to militants desperately
trying to sneak into the state from Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Since Monday,
two groups of militants were reportedly seen moving on PoK side near the LoC
looking for an opportunity to cross over to the Indian side.

The militants were
desperate to sneak into the state in view of the coming winter season when
mountainous passes will get closed due to snowfall. However, there has been
almost negligible infiltration from across the border due to intensified vigil
being maintained by army troops so far.

Indian Army
'salutes' youth for support in Jammu and Kashmir flood rescue operations

Srinagar: Army on
Saturday "saluted" the efforts put in by the youth of Kashmir Valley
during the devastating floods and said if it were not for the young men, the
force would not have been able to effectively accomplish the mission of
rescuing people.

"Probably, it
is my men on the ground who have actually seen how effective and how important
the role of the youth was. Every second or third boat of mine went to the local
volunteers. If it was not for these local youths, who had guided us to reach
the places, I cannot say how we would have been able to accomplish the
mission," General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps Lt Gen
Subrata Saha told reporters here.

"As far as
the Army is concerned, it salutes the efforts put in by the youth, (both) with
us and also by themselves. We are deeply conscious because we have seen it with
our own eyes."

"My own
officers and men have conveyed this to me at various forums at all places and
they all had lots of tales to tell of the great, great efforts of the
youth," he said.

Lt Gen Saha said
the people of the Valley deserve all the respect and admiration for what they
did during the floods.

"On so many
occasions, when boats reached (submerged) houses, the inhabitants of particular
house said 'no, not me, please go to the neighbour's house, they need it more
than I do`. The people, the youth, they all have my respect and admiration for what
they have done," he said.

The Commander,
while commenting on a controversy surrounding the portrayal of Army in a recent
movie, said art must have its own place.

"Honestly, I
do not have time to watch movies. As a matter of principle, art is an
expression and it must have its own place," he said.

In August, the
Indian Ministry of Defense approved the $2.5 billion purchase of 22 Boeing
AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and 15 CH-47F Chinook heavy lift helicopters.
The sale still has one last hurdle—Indian Cabinet approval—but if completed it
will be the latest example of a major shift in U.S.-Indo relations that in the
past three years have seen Washington become India’s top defense equipment
supplier.

The approval of
the Apache and Chinook deals comes about a month after Defense Secretary Chuck
Hagel arrived in Delhi promising the El Dorado of defense deals: joint
development and local manufacture of top-end U.S. kit.

The deal consisted
of joint development of a new version of the Javelin antitank missile and the
promise of access to electromagnetic catapult technology for India’s next
generation of aircraft carriers.

Ministry of
Defence (MoD) sources told IHS Jane’s that other U.S. technologies on offer
included design and build of unmanned aerial vehicles, big-data systems, 127 mm
naval guns and multirole helicopters for the Indian Navy.

"We can do
more to forge a defense industrial partnership—one that would transform our
nations' defense cooperation from simply buying and selling to co-production,
co-development, and freer exchange of technology," Hagel said in a speech
at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi. Referring specifically to the
possibility of Javelin co-development, Hagel said: "This is an
unprecedented offer that we have made only to India."

So goes the sales
pitch. The interesting thing about it is that so far, U.S.-Indo defense deals
have followed the tried-and-tested Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route: a
government-to-government procedure that avoids negotiating pitfalls and
potential corruption. It also limits the extent to which the buyer can add any
sweeteners, such as the transfer of technology or local assembly options that
are key to modern defense deals between developed and developing countries.

Despite this
reticence on Washington’s part, its push into the Indian market has been very
successful. According to IHS Jane’s data, in 2009 India imported only $200
million in military equipment from the US; by 2013 that had jumped to $2
billion.

This means that
since 2011, the United States has supplanted Russia as New Delhi’s primary
supplier of defense materiel. It is possible to argue that the United States
has grasped at low-hanging fruit (and that year-by-year defense-sales numbers
can be misleading as they capture big-ticket transactions, rather than
long-term trends). That said, the numbers involved shouldn’t be sniffed at:
Washington has offered field-tested, battle-proven aircraft (Apache, Chinook,
C-130 Hercules, C-17 Globemaster) and top-end new platforms (such as the Boeing
P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft) that fit local requirements and that
the cash-rich Indian armed forces can afford to purchase.

It hasn’t all gone
the United States’ way: Russia may have dropped out of first place in dollar
terms, but its contribution to Indian military capabilities is comprehensive
and unsurpassed across all three services. Meanwhile, countries such as France,
the UK, Israel and even defense-export newcomer Japan are looking to expand
defense ties with New Delhi, which they expect will remain a significant player
on the international market for the foreseeable future.

India: Open for
Business

The U.S. response
to this situation—Hagel’s offer of joint development and systems such as the
Electro Magnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) for aircraft carriers that
aren’t even in U.S. service yet—says a lot about the state of the global
defense industry and India’s position within it.

Simply put, India
is the largest ‘open’ defense market in the world, accounting for nearly 10
percent of the $63 billion international defense market in 2013. It is ‘open’
because the other major markets, such as the United States, Europe, China or
Russia, tend to buy local when they can. By contrast, India’s indigenous
defense industry has singularly failed to keep up with local demand, forcing
the MoD to look abroad to modernize its forces.

A look at the
shopping list for U.S. kit gives a reasonably straightforward view of India’s
strategic priorities. C-17s, C-130s, Apaches and Chinooks allow it to resupply
and reinforce forces on the Pakistani and Chinese borders, the latter, a focus
of new procurements due to army plans to establish a mountain corps. This plan
was also the driving force behind talks (now on hold) to buy the U.S. Marine
Corps’ BAE Systems M777 howitzer , which was preferred because it could be
slung under a Chinook and moved up to the border quickly.

At sea, the Indian
Navy wants aircraft carriers (potentially fitted with EMALS), P-8 maritime
patrol aircraft and UAVs, because it is worried about China’s intentions in the
Indian Ocean region. That is not to say that the United States is the only show
in town; India also has a new(ish) Russian aircraft carrier, technical
assistance from Moscow for a nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed missile
submarine, and all kinds of Israeli and Russian kit on its new Kolkata-class
guided-missile destroyers.

Meanwhile, the air
force is happy to buy fighters from France (Dassault’s Rafale fighter beat
Boeing’s F/A-18 and Lockheed Martin’s F-16 to be shortlisted for a 128-plane
requirement) or Russia (such as the PAK-FA—Moscow’s stealth fighter); and
although the Chinook and Apache both beat Russian competitors for their
requirements, the workhorse Mi-17 ‘Hip’ is an Indian stalwart and French
helicopter engineers have played a major role in helping India’s homegrown
Dhruv platform off the ground.

Delhi’s preference
for kit from multiple sources has its risks: interoperability, resupply and
logistics can be an issue (especially in areas like small arms and artillery
ammunition), while maintaining partnerships with multiple countries can be a
tough juggling act. After-sales support is another challenge: some countries
have dismal reputations for servicing and spares, so even if the platform is
best in class, it might become a “hangar queen” due to poor maintenance.

That said, there
is no doubt of the huge geopolitical benefits of diversifying military
suppliers for the buying country. In India’s case, one has to look no further
than the symbolic role that the ShinMaywa US-2i amphibious plane is playing in
its “special strategic relationship” with Japan. Another example is Russia,
which remains a key partner for Delhi, because it is helping to build nuclear
submarines, supersonic cruise missiles and other strategic systems.

This
diversification means that although the United States is eager to cozy up to
India, Delhi has plenty of other options if it so chooses. The relationship is
also complicated by Indian memories of U.S. sanctions after the 1998 nuclear
test, along with Washington’s long-standing military support for Pakistan.

We Need to Talk
about China

The big question is
what the United States seeks in return for its military technology transfer—and
what India gets from closer ties with the United States. The answer to both of
these questions could be linked to the elephant in the room—or perhaps the
dragon with the shared driveway.

As we’ve seen,
India is using acquisitions from the United States and its allies to reinforce
its position in the Indian Ocean region. Meanwhile, under its ‘Look East’
policy, Delhi is building alliances with China’s east Asian neighbors such as
Japan and Vietnam. U.S. rhetorical appeals to India regularly emphasize the
areas of commonality that differentiate the two countries from China, such as
democracy, freedom of navigation and respect for international norms.

Within India, some
suspicion remains that the United States wants to draw India into some kind of
anti-China containment strategy, a move that would end Delhi’s cherished
nonalignment. Other Indian analysts argue that if Asia is going bipolar, then
the United States is the natural country to side with, given Beijing’s
“all-weather friendship” with Islamabad and the ongoing territorial dispute in
eastern Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls South Tibet.

Either way, the
relationship deserves monitoring. U.S. interest in India appears to be sincere,
but may not survive having to work with local state-owned defense primes, which
suffer from a terrible reputation for bureaucracy and high-handedness. However,
if Washington—and its defense companies—can find like-minded India partners,
then this could be the start of something big.