About Vern Gowdie

In 1999, Personal Investor magazine ranked Vern as one of Australia’s Top 50 financial planners.

His previous firm, Gowdie Financial Planning was recognized in 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, by Independent Financial Adviser (IFA) magazine as one of the top five financial planning firms in Australia.

He has been writing his 'Big Picture' column for regional newspapers since 2005 and has been a commentator on financial matters for Prime Radio talkback.

His contrarian views often place him at odds with the financial planning profession.

Vern is is Founder and Chairman of the Gowdie Family Wealth advisory service, a monthly newsletter with a clear aim: to help you build and protect wealth for future generations of your family. He is also editor of The Gowdie Letter, which aims to help you protect and grow your wealth during the great credit contraction.

Central banks have blown the biggest bubble in history. History shows us that ALL bubbles eventually find a pin. The looming collapse of the financial system will come as a huge surprise to many people. They’ve been conditioned to believe central banks can solve all problems. Nothing could be further from the truth. They are the creators of problems.

I’m just waiting for the crypto launch that — in addition to its run-of-the-mill magical powers — also promises a cure for cancer or can endow the Donald with humility. Why not? Cryptos can do just about everything else!? Seriously, what a con. There are no earnings. There are no assets. There’s nothing…other than blind belief.

When you throw trillions of freshly-minted dollars at an economy, you’d expect a bounce in the tax take. That’s exactly what happened after 2009. But the chart shows us that something is different this time.

When Japan’s bubble burst in the 1990s, our economy was saved by China’s economic transformation. Throughout the first decade of the new millennium, Australia was a major beneficiary of China’s grand plan. When China’s bubble bursts — and it almost certainly will — there’s no other Asian saviour to prop up our debt-laden economy waiting in the wings.

The global economy’s absolute dependency on central bank stimulants for growth has created the illusion of strength. But, in reality, it’s weakened the system to the point where our financial wellbeing is highly vulnerable to even the slightest of economic ills.

The warning signals are being sounded on this extended period of excess and manipulation. We’re on the cusp of a seasonal change in market conditions…clear blue sunny skies are going to give way to a very long and very bleak winter.

The pundits all tell us the market is only going higher from here. Let’s celebrate. Have another drink. She’ll be right mate. The GFC may well have been put to rest. However, I think GFC Mark II is beginning to stir…and this is going to be one angry bear with a very sore head.

The actions taken by the Fed after the dotcom bust and the GFC would’ve, in 1999, been deemed to be sheer recklessness…bordering on lunacy. That’s how much the world has changed in the space of two decades. Goldilocks is going to be mauled by another bear…and it’ll be far more ferocious than the one that awoke from hibernation in 2000.

People extrapolate their current euphoria into the future. But we know that’s not how life works. Nothing stays good forever, and nothing stays bad forever. Things change. The current mood of confidence and complacency is why I’m confident the time is right to be in cash.

In following the money, we find the wealth created in recent years has been nothing more than an illusion. This illusion can only be maintained if ever more money is printed…making the world’s newest and largest economy for the privileged few even bigger.

Have you read any mainstream commentary identifying our world record household debt as the root cause of our economic miracle? I haven’t. Instead we’re dazzled with the brilliance of ‘adept management’ and ‘flexible inflation targets’.

Unfortunately, most people are oblivious to the dangers that lie in wait. When the market eventually asks why valuations are so high when economic activity is so lacklustre, millions of people are going to be woken from their slumber.

As a society, we’ve learnt nothing from the events of 1987. The difference between then and now is that the cocktail of excess is no longer isolated to one sector of the community…it has intoxicated the entire community.

When it comes to money, the word ‘guarantee’ conveys a sense of safety and assurance. The challenges facing Challenger — trying to generate sufficient return in a low interest world — is a global problem.

Testimonial

Just thought I would let you know that whilst I receive countless financial emails daily I view yours as something special. I am not looking for the same old humdrum I am looking for news that is out of left field. Now you guys would be off the planet if you went any further left but it is refreshingly different. I get through the humdrum first and get my mind sorted and save you for last as a check. It is certainly an insane moment in time but I am still finding investment opportunities. Thanks for your comments