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The Politics of White House Firings

When presidential popularity sags, the predictable calls begin: Off with their heads! The heads, of course, belong to key administrators and Cabinet officials who are perceived to have contributed to whatever woes are besetting the president.

The calls come from both friends and foes of the White House. The friends want to satisfy and silence baying opponents with a pound of prominent flesh; the foes hope it’s just the first pound.

President Obama has been resistant to dismissing any senior person. He refused to fire Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius during the disastrous Obamacare rollout (though Sebelius later resigned). Nor has he, as of this writing, dismissed Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric Shinseki, despite widespread problems in the VA that are ballooning into a damaging scandal.

If Obama gave Shinseki his walking papers, it would be out of character for this president. Except for Gen. Stanley McChrystal, it is hard to think of any significant appointee shown the door during Obama’s first five years in office. (McChrystal was fired in June 2010 after his unflattering comments about the president surfaced in a Rolling Stone article.) Plenty of White House aides have cycled in and out, some perhaps nudged out the door, but “no-drama Obama” clearly does not like to make headlines with splashy sackings.

Is this a good or bad practice? Is a president better off “demonstrating tough leadership” and “holding people accountable” by dismissals, or should he stand behind his appointees?

Naturally, it depends on the situation—and more than public opinion is involved. Maybe the chief executive has had an irreparable breach with an adviser or there is an unresolvable policy dispute. Better to send a Cabinet member packing than let a sore fester.

The purely political questions are different, of course. What effect do firings have on public opinion? Does it help a president’s job approval when he shakes up his team? Is there a pattern in history that can be detected, at least since polling began?

Turns out, there are several trends worth noting. I examined the most prominent firings from Harry Truman to Barack Obama and tried to see what, if any, effect showed up in subsequent Gallup surveys. What I found was that delivering a prominent pink slip usually had only a minor impact on a president’s popularity, even short-term. Moreover, the polling result for the president was more likely to be negative than positive.

Take a look below at 35 cases of significant changes in presidential administrations where press reports made clear the departures were not voluntary. Even to political junkies, some of these events will be obscure, but at the time, the firings made front-page headlines and seemed very important. The inclusion of some dismissals involved judgment calls as to whether or not they were truly “firings.” (Have we forgotten any? Let us know at goodpolitics@virginia.edu.)

President

News break date

"Fired" official

Position

Gallup before date

Presidential approval

Gallup after date

Presidential approval

Truman

Sept. 20,1946

Henry Wallace

Sec. of commerce

Sept. 13-18

33%

Nov. 15-21

34%

Sept. 13, 1950

Louis Johnson

Sec. of defense

Aug. 20-25

43%

Sept. 17-22

35%

April 11, 1951

Gen. Douglas MacArthur

Commander of UN forces in Korea

Mar. 26-31

28%

April 16-21

24%

April 3, 1952

J. Howard MacGrath

Attorney general

Feb. 9-14

22%

April 13-18

28%

Eisenhower

Sept. 23, 1958

Sherman Adams

WH chief of staff

Sept. 10-15

57%

Sept. 24-29

54%

Kennedy

Aug. 1, 1961

Allen Dulles

CIA director

July 27-Aug. 1

75%

Aug. 24-29

76%

Johnson

Nov. 28, 1967

Robert McNamara

Sec. of defense

Nov. 16-21

42%

Dec. 7-12

46%

Nixon

Nov. 25, 1970

Wally Hickel

Sec. of interior

Nov. 12-17

57%

Dec. 3-8

52%

April 30, 1973

H.R. Haldeman

WH chief of staff

April 27-29

48%

May 4-7

45%

John Erlichman

WH adviser

John Dean

WH counsel

Oct. 20,1973

Archibald Cox

Special prosecutor

Oct. 5-8

30%

Nov. 2-5

27%

Ford

Nov. 2, 1975

Nelson Rockefeller

Vice president

Oct. 17-20

47%

Nov. 21-24

41%

James Schlesinger

Sec. of defense

William Colby

CIA director

Oct. 4, 1976

Earl Butz

Sec. of agriculture

Oct. 4**

45%

Oct. 11**

42%

Carter

Sept. 21, 1977

Bert Lance

OMB director

Sept. 9-12

54%

Sept. 30-Oct. 3

59%

July 19-20, 1979

W. Michael Blumenthal

Sec. of treasury

July 13-16

29%

Aug. 3-6

32%

Joseph Califano

Sec. of HEW

James Schlesinger

Sec. of energy

Brock Adams

Sec. of transportation

Reagan

June 25, 1982

Alexander Haig

Sec. of state

June 11-14

45%

July 23-26

42%

March 9, 1983

Anne Gorsuch

EPA administrator

Feb. 25-28

40%

Mar. 11-14

41%

Feb. 27, 1987

Don Regan

WH chief of staff

Jan. 16-19

48%

Mar. 6-9

43%

G.H.W. Bush

Dec. 12, 1990

Lauro Cavazos

Sec. of education

Dec. 6-9

58%

Dec. 13-16

63%

Dec. 3, 1991

John Sununu

WH chief of staff

Nov. 21-24

52%

Dec 5-8

52%

Clinton

July 19, 1993

William Sessions

FBI director

July 9-11

45%

Aug. 8-10

44%

Dec. 15, 1993

Les Aspin

Sec. of defense

Dec. 4-6

52%

Dec. 17-19

54%

Dec. 9, 1994

Joycelyn Elders

Surgeon general

Dec. 2-5

42%

Dec. 16-18

42%

Dec. 21, 1994

Mike Espy

Sec. of agriculture

Dec. 16-18

42%

Dec. 28-30

40%

G.W. Bush

Dec. 6, 2002

Paul O'Neill

Sec. of treasury

Nov. 22-24

65%

Dec. 9-10

63%

Nov. 8, 2006

Donald Rumsfeld

Sec. of defense

Nov. 2-5

38%

Nov. 9-12

33%

Aug. 27, 2007

Alberto Gonzales

Attorney general

Aug. 13-16

32%

Sept. 7-8

33%

March 31, 2008

Alphonso Jackson

Sec. of HUD

Mar. 14-16

32%

Apr. 6-9

28%

Obama

June 23, 2010

Gen. Stanley McChrystal

Commander of ISAF

June 14-20

47%

June 28-July 4

46%

On the political Richter scale, probably the most earth-shaking were President Truman’s firing of Gen. Douglas MacArthur for insubordination during the Korean War in 1951, President Nixon’s Watergate-related dismissals of aides Bob Haldeman, John Ehrlichman and John Dean in the spring of 1973 and his follow-up beheading of Watergate special prosecutor Archibald Cox in the autumn. Truman’s decision, while judged correct by historians and military analysts, cost him whatever thin chance he had at reelection in 1952. Nixon’s surgical strikes were designed to save his presidency but, along with the White House tapes, helped make him the first president to resign.

Larry J. Sabato is university professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which publishes the online, free Crystal Ball politics newsletter every Thursday, and a regular columnist for Politico Magazine. His most recent book is The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy.