By our watch that means it’s time for Alistair Darling to come along and warn us that the oil will run out by next Tuesday afternoon, and that even if it doesn’t we’ll only waste the money on deep-fried heroin and free bus passes for pensioners so it’s best to make sure we keep giving it to George Osborne. Over to you, Alistair.

.

(Kudos due to Stephen Noon for digging out the MP quotes at the start.)

“””””Doug Daniel says: It’s almost as if they’re trying to artificially create lots of uncertainty, so that people don’t know what to think, and end up just picking the “better the devil you know” option in frustration.”””””
There’s no ‘almost’ about it — it has been UK political policy to downplay and discredit the worth and value of the oil since it was first discovered and the SNP began to make some headway. It’s all clearly shown in the documentary about Scotland’s oil — Tony Benn, despite his promoting himself as a man of the people, turned out to be as big a liar as the rest of them; this is also shown in the documentary. I’ll post the documentary link later.

When companies throw hundreds of millions of pounds into development and infrastructure it kinda gives the game away as to who’s telling the truth. Very much a case of putting their money where their mouth is.

Here it is boiled down to just 2 sentences …
The quantity & value of North Sea Oil & Gas is unpredictably volatile & worthless to Scotland unless its extraction is supervised by The British Government & all the tax revenues are received by The Exchequor.
Only when Britain is administering it, is it actually worth something & only we can correctly decide to give you a small proportion of its value back.
Any questions?

UK Govt yesterday announced that North Sea Oil has a future WELL BEYOND 2055.
So that’s well beyond 42 years. Love the well behond quote. It’s like someone with £1m in a bank account saying he’s got well in excess of £10,000. Not being dishonest but not providing the full account.

In that last Telegraph article, Ed Davey (an energy minister, I believe) is quoted as saying: “Smaller economies have difficulty absorbing the costs.”
Has he ever heard of (out of a long list of possible ‘oil-burdened’ small economies):
Brunei ($12.7b GDP), Bahrain ($12.37b), Ghana ($83.18b) ??
Scotland’s GDP: $216 billion.
Such an outright untruth….O where is the journalist who can spare five minutes on Google to refute it? (Answer came there none)

Jeeze, that’s a lot of links – far more than three I mentioned on my blog! lol

But I agree completely with Macart’s take – if you have a choice between believing ‘impartial’ reports or those of the oil industry over this, I’m going with the folk who’ve just said they are going to spend over £300m!

In a statement accompanying its annual results, Trapoil said: “The amount of oil potentially held in tight reservoirs is equal to, or probably greater than, all of the oil produced to date from the UK North Sea.

The concerns over onshore fracking (groundwater supply contamination, small seismic disturbances) are not specifically applicable to the deeper offshore environment. In fact the oil and gas involved is in many ways just the same as that already being produced; just has not migrated into higher porosity/permeability formations where it’s easy to get at.

This is normal in hydrocarbon-rich basins, i.e. most oil/gas remains in situ or close to source rocks. Takes a special set of circumstances for it to migrate into handy little ‘pools’ in nice porous/permeable sandstones where you just need to stick a well in and it gushes out.

Doug – I think Stevie was referring to “Truth, Lies, Oil and Scotland” which was an hour long investigative piece produced by BBC Scotland and presented by Hayley Miller. It is well worth a watch.
It can viewed on (or downloaded from) Vimeo in it’s entirety and is also available in parts on Youtube…http://vimeo.com/59798908

I believe that Dr. Robert MacIntyre once received a letter from Ted Heath in the mid 70’s saying that it was unlikely that the value of recoverable oil in the North Sea was unlikely to exceed £800 million.

While I’m at it, here’s another excellent production worth sharing – I assume most people here will already know the facts but for the younger, uninitiated or newcomers to the debate, it’s a great introduction.
Scotland’s Conspiracy Fileshttp://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLA627A38670A1F8C3

I must admit there does indeed appear to be a hell of a lot of uncertainty about the future of Scotland’s oil. The only problem though is that the uncertainty does not exist amongst Scotland’s forward looking electorate, it ONLY exists in the petty mind sets of Westminster politicians and their lap dogs of the Better together crowd! 😆

Hi folks.
I asked this on an earlier thread and didn’t receive a reply, so I’m hoping someone will come to my aid. Would an indepedent Scotland be able to nationalise and/or renegotiate drilling licenses without risk of legal action from oil companies? Given that the current contracts have been signed by the UK Gov, any compensation would have to be paid by them, given that, come independence, they would no longer be in a position to honour those contracts? I’ve checked out South Sudan, and it seems something similar is happening there, with the government having mentioned they will be looking at renegotiating contracts that had been signed by Khartoum. Anyone able to confirm?

Big carbonate reservoir research group where I work; really hot topic with a lot of industry money being invested. As I believe I’ve said before, my main area is from the wellhead onwards; flow assurance mainly (specialist in gas hydrates and KHIs).

This area is also crucial factor in making smaller, marginal fields profitable and extending the life of existing fields post water breakthrough / during pressure decline.

@Slaughterhouse.

All possible yes, but you’d need to be really careful about just trying to dive in an ‘grab’ stuff where there are existing contracts. Could put off investors.

What you can do perfectly reasonably though is take a sizeable or controlling share in all new developments or existing ones when they go on the open market (Norwegian government do this through Statoil which is 60% state owned).

That means you need to inject some cash but then you get a share of the profits too. In addition, crucially, you have much more control over your own resources/supply from them.

Sorry for going off topic, but I’ve just written to Electoral Commission to complain about the use of the names Scottish Labour party, Scottish Liberal Democrat party and Scottish Conservative party. Having checked the Electoral Commission website I’ve found none of these parties are registered so in my humblest of humble opinions none of these names can be used. I think it is only fair and just that the political parties in Scotland use their correct names and not ones that lead to confusion amongst the electorate.

My father was 32 years with BP and back in 79-80 I spent a year with them myself before finding myself on Maggie’s 4mil club. We both still keep an eye on the industry. I rarely if ever believe the dailys when it comes to the oil industry. Just check out govt projections check with a few company sites and hey presto picture formed. The fact that Dana, Shell, BP, Statoil and a few others have started to spend some serious cash is a bit of a heads up.

Slaughterhouse said : “Would an indepedent Scotland be able to nationalise and/or renegotiate drilling licenses without risk of legal action from oil companies?”

Given the historical precedents, I’d be more worried about hostile action from MI6 and the CIA. 🙂

They throw a fit if anybody tries to nationalise anything anywhere, especially when it comes to oil rights.

Energy resources must NOT be allowed to benefit the people of the country they belong to – it is a natural law that they are always the rightful property of multinational British and American corporations… unless the Russians or Chinese get there first.

Not really sure why Norway’s been left alone so long by the global wrecking crew.

Honestly, though, I don’t know. It would certainly be something worth looking into, and scottish_skier makes a much more sensible point than me, namely that it would be a good idea for the government to set about getting a controlling share in any new wells post-independence.

Money Week magazine has in today’s edition a 3 page spread on North Sea Oil, they now are now quoting that output could again grow to 2mbd, something that Alex Salmond already said and was shot down by the Unionist Conspiracy.
However, the name, Scotland, is nowhere to be seen in their article.
So it is pretty clear just who we should trust, and it is not the Unionists.
Note also that old foggy V.Gable apparently now agrees “IT IS SCOTLANDS OIL” something again long spoken about by A.Salmond.
The facts are now out in the open, and the YES campaign should capitalize big time on these statements. They the undeniable truth of how Scotland wealthy would be, is now a fact and reiterates a point in the McCrone report that Scotland will be a lender to the UK. There is nil chance of them being difficult with us using Sterling, so that one can also be put in the dead file.
Pull together folks, onwards and upwards!

It appears that Conlibs are scrapping the Oil and Gas Division of the HSE formed in response to recommendations in Cullen’s report into the Piper Alpha disaster. Most of the inspectors are based in Aberdeen no doubt whats left will be relocated south of the border

Slightly OT
But any of you guys seen a recent FOI regarding a feasibility/planning report carried out in 2006 for gas extraction in the Airth area? Claims that they would eventually use fracking have been denied, but a lot of the FOI has been redacted. OK most of that from surrounding context would appear to be commercially sensitive info (e.g. production yields expected etc.) but some of the redacted stuff does seem to also be in bits where methods are the context.

Ms. Wexelstein, the analyst at Wood Mackenzie*, says the industry is likely to invest $70 billion in Britain from 2012 to 2016 — the most, even accounting for inflation, since the 1970s.
“We are expecting the decline in liquids production to halt [in the North Sea] and gas production to rise, “ Ms. Wexelstein says.
Rather than abandon Britain, the industry appears to be shifting into a new phase. The major producers are shedding smaller depleted fields and moving north, though the central North Sea off Scotland will likely remain the key producer for a longtime.

*from their website … Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries.

The facts about oil are finally beginning to get out and we now for the first time in 40 years really stand a chance of getting the truth to the voters. Thank god for the web and and people like the Rev! I’d like to see what the research says about how many Scots have the message yet? I’m sure most people don’t know but we have 18 months to get it out there!!!!!

Does anyone think it would be a good idea for the Yes campaign to send a copy of the McCrone report to every household in Scotland? I think many people in Scotland still do not know about it due to the media and their ‘style’ of reporting.

One of the main choices in the referendum is whether we are going to vote to take control over our natural resources to build a better society in Scotland. Vote Yes for control over our natural resources, vote No for continued economic exploitation (mostly at the hands of fucking Tories and their Red Tory buddies), while at the same time being labelled “subsidy junkies”!

quote:
“Then, we have the massive Scottish North Atlantic sector oil and natural gas fields, off Scotland`s west coast, which is predicted to contain two or three times the amount of oil and natural gas as the Scottish North Sea sector. The Scottish ‘Atlantic Frontier’ for oil and natural gas goes way out beyond Rockall. London has earmarked over 2500 licensing blocks for sale in the Scottish North Atlantic sector. ”

@mutley79 -“Does anyone think it would be a good idea for the Yes campaign to send a copy of the McCrone report to every household in Scotland? I think many people in Scotland still do not know about it due to the media and their ‘style’ of reporting.”
I think this is an excellent idea but with an update on the current situation from an independent source e.g. Oil and Gas UK, Professor Alex Kemp (University of Aberdeen). I would say that the vast majority of the people of Scotland have never heard of the McCrone Report. If they had and they knew it has been kept Top Secret by the UK Government for 30 years, we would have been independent by now.

I wonder how long it will be before the NO’s change tactics and tell the truth?
“OK, we admit Scotland would be better off independent, but please stay. Pretty pretty please stay. Us Unionists MP’s and MSP’s have egos and familys to feed. And multiple properties in London to finance. Please, pretty please don’t force us to live in the real world.”

Would you allow a Westminster establishment which has racked up more than £1.4 Trillion of debt to “manage” your precious oil resources ?

The UK Energy Secretary Ed Davey is reported to have said: “Only the UK can deliver what is required over a sustained period if you are going to get the most out of the oil and gas industry. The UK is a large economy – that is why we can provide the support. Smaller economies have difficulty absorbing the costs. The size of the UK economy can really create the framework and certainty.” and “A bigger country is better at absorbing shocks — it’s simple logic. A modest change has a significant impact on GDP — in a country 10 times smaller, the shock would be proportionally bigger. We need to remember that when we’re debating this sensitive issue.”

So putting all your eggs in one basket by de-industrialising and basing your economy entirely on the quicksands of financial services is all right then? I think not.

According to the Westminster Lab/Tory/Lib party argument then no natural resources would belong to any single country but have to be given over to the EU or some world government instead!

What other country in the world votes for an arrangement where they hand over all the revenues from a natural resource within their territorial waters that will probably last for another 100 years, to another government that misspends at will and financially punishes the poorest and weakest in the donor country, whilst it gives the donor country only 9% of these revenues back?

The problem with unionists’ thinking is that they see oil & gas as a revenue stream for the here and now. Of course if you’re relying on oil & gas to provide income for your day-to-day expenses any fluctuations in price can be traumatic, a shock to the system.

If, on the other hand, you regard oil & gas as the icing on the cake and you treat the income as a long term investment you can ride out short term fluctuations far more comfortably. Thinking this way, oil & gas is far more of a burden to a large economy which spends the revenue as fast as it comes in than it is for a smaller economy which puts the revenue aside in a wealth fund for future generations.

We are OFT (oil field trash), our living comes from working in O&G sector. Local North East folk have acquired expertise in this extremely dangerous industry, we sell our skills worldwide, and yet, WM has the gall to tell us that WE won’t be able to manage this resource and the industry exploiting it, so we should let them continue to exploit us!

I learned to ignore a well-connected Arab in his Lexus Landcruiser, one cm off my bumper, flashing his headlights, trying to force me to make way for him, SO a well-connected Old Etonian politician, in my face, flashing his English majority trying to make me give up my sovereignty is not going to cut it.

A couple of wee off-topics if I may, can we please keep rack of what the bookies, particularly in this crucial week when C A Moron and entourage are in Aberdeen as it will have great bearing and will help folk to see where the money is going.
The following would be grand to see …
Ensure all alternative exits are blocked
No laundry baskets available
FM to knock door and march in accompanied by a full press corps, Russia Today, Al Jazeera etc

The very thought that they even think to allow Fracking in the Central belt of Scotland scares the hell out of me. We have been mining underneath our cities and towns for over 300 years. Can you imagine the devastation fracking could cause, building and roads collapsing underneath you as you walk. Perhaps a great tory idea to get rid of us Scots, If you can’t breed them out, undermine them (seems they want to undermine our self esteem, and our towns). Oil will probably last for another century and that is great so long as we use it to build our infrastructure and invest in our inventors and entrepreneurs, nothing lasts forever, but as a small country we will be able to adapt and change in ways that the UK never could or want to.

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Mundell said the withdrawal bill would return powers to Scotland, it didn't, he said he'd amend the bill so it would, he didn't, he said the Lords would amend it so it would, they didn't, he said he would resign if NI got a bespoke deal, they did, he didn't.. #ScotRef /1