How much do you guys think it would cost Disney to buy Fantastic Four from Fox with a lump sum?

Keep in mind they bought most of the Marvel catalogue for 4 billion and that excluded X-men, Spider-man and Fantastic Four.

So I think Fox would want at least 200 million for the rights to Fantastic Four.

I'm guessing Fox would jump at that amount, but I'm only guessing. That 4 billion wasn't just for film rights, but everything under the Marvel umbrella - including publishing which provides a steady revenue stream.

And the Marvel brand increases in value with every Spider-Man and X-Men film that is made. . . even though the film rights aren't directly controlled by Marvel.

The day after Disney bought Marvel, Fox announced a reboot. I think that was a transparent attempt to get money from Marvel/Disney (if they really wanted to make the film, they simply would have started moving forward, no reason to make an announcement, but they wanted to feel Marvel out).

At that point, I suspect Marvel saw the move for what it was and probably didn't make a serious offer - planning to wait Fox out and get the rights for free.

Up until about (a month ago?), Fox had not done anything to show any serious interest in making the film, but when they announced Trank and the writing team, it seemed that they were serious about moving forward.

It's still very possible at this point that Fox would rather sell than make a movie. And if your $200 million value is even close, it would certainly be a small investment to bring on a director and writing team in the hopes that such a move would bring Marvel to the table.

At this moment, I believe that Fox is probably willing to move ahead. . . or willing to sell to Marvel. I can only guess at the number Fox would require and I can only guess at the number Marvel would offer.

If I were to take a wild guess, I'd say that Fox would probably sell for $100 million and Marvel would probably offer $50 million and the question is 'Will they meet somewhere in the middle, or will Fox move ahead?'

... or ... as these recent stories suggest, will they make some side deals that don't actually include FF? Or are those details just a dance around the real negotiation that could result in FF going to Marvel?