Ransquawk Energy Markets Commentary - Nov. 27, 2007

Energy futures are trading lower today on a stronger dollar following a $7.5 billion investment by Abu Dhabiâs investment arm into Citigroup, supportive comments by the Indonesian and Iraqi oil ministers of a 500k b/d increase in output at OPECâs December meeting and confirmation by the Saudi oil minister that the Kingdom is producing 9M b/d, up from 8.75M b/d in October.

The dollar index has rebounded today by 0.25% to 74.977 after Citigroup announced late last night that it has received a $7.5 billion capital infusion by the investment arm of Abu Dhabi. Versus the yen the dollar rallied more than 1 yen to 108.76 yen.

Regarding OPEC, the Indonesian oil minister said today that his country will support an OPEC output increase of 500K b/d, according to Dow Jones. The Iraqi oil minister told Dow Jones that âa production increase has been put on the agenda of OPECâs extraordinary meeting in Abu Dhabi.â The minister added that the potential for that increase would not exceed 500K b/d and that he did not believe that more OPEC oil in the market would bring down prices because international markets have sufficient supplies. Saudi Arabiaâs oil minister confirmed today that the Kingdom is producing 9M b/d, but declined to comment on whether OPEC should increase output next week. Lastly, the Qatar oil minister spoke out today against an OPEC output increase. He also said that Venezuelaâs proposal to shift oil pricing from the dollar to a basket of currencies is âunrealistic.â

The Iranian Defense Minister said today, according to the Fars news agency, that Iran has built a new longer-range ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers or 1,240 miles. The missile would be capable of hitting targets inside Israel. This comes after a U.N. report on Iranâs nuclear program two weeks ago saying that Iran had installed 3,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium. That would be enough to begin industrial scale production of nuclear fuel which could be used to build a nuclear warhead within a year. Tehran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful and civilian purposes, while Washington has accused Iran of trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

In other energy news, the Egyptian petroleum ministry said today that British Petroleum will start production from the Saqqara field offshore Egypt early next year. The field has capacity of 30K b/d. Elsewhere, Total said today that is planning to shut down its 227K b/d refinery in Leuna, Germany, for six weeks for regular maintenance inspections. In the U.S., Shell said last night that its 98K b/d Scotford refinery in Canada is still running at reduced rates. The company gave no timeline for the full restart of an adjacent upgrader, which has a capacity of 155K b/d.

On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today that the Northeast will have snow showers from winds wrapping around the low pressure system that dumped copious amounts of rain in the East. For the Midwest, the forecaster said that another area of low pressure in the Upper Midwest will bring frigid air from Canada streaming down into the region. For some this will be the coldest air of the season with lows below zero and in the single digits.

Tomorrow the EIA releases its weekly petroleum data. According to a major wire survey, crude inventories are expected at -750K barrels, gasoline inventories at +1.0M barrels and distillate inventories are expected at -1.2M barrels. The refinery utilization rate is seen up 0.55%.

At 12:15 p.m. BST WTI crude futures are down $0.95 to $96.75. RBOB gasoline futures are lower by 1.49 cents to $2.4265 and heating oil futures are falling 1.53 cents to $2.6913. Natural gas futures are down 8.6 cents to $7.637.

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