Neighbors key to outlast pandemic

JAMES CITY -- Everyone is familiar with the flu virus that causes fevers, chills and aches and pains. Each year lines form for flu shots to avoid what for most is an inconvenience. But what happens if a new, more virulent strain of flu were to spread through the human population?

A committee of seven residents in Ford's Colony is studying the possibility that a neighborhood could effectively isolate itself during a pandemic, stockpiling enough goods to serve residents when common resources are overwhelmed or simply unavailable.

Anne Harrison is the chair of the committee. She has had a long career in public affairs with more than 25 years' experience lobbying on Capitol Hill. Harrison has focused the committee's efforts on the threat of a flu pandemic and the avian flu.

"There is no certainty as to when we might find ourselves facing such a pandemic," Har­rison said. "The truth of the matter is that agriculture is an enormously important part of the Virginia economy.

"There is a significant amount of activity going on around poultry and eggs," she said. "As a state we are subject to being more concerned than other parts of the country."

Harrison said that in July a turkey flock in Shenandoah County tested positive for antibodies of a low-level avian flu virus. The entire flock of 54,000 birds was destroyed as a precaution.

To get the word out about the potential for a flu pandemic, the committee distributed the pamphlet "Pandemic Influenza Planning: A Guide for Individuals and Families" from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services to more than 2,000 homes in Ford's Colony.

A meeting to brief the general public on the threat of avian flu and a flu pandemic is planned for Oct. 23 at Lafayette High School.

Kevin Pearce, an emergency health planner for the Peninsula Health District, explained that the connection between Avian flu viruses and a flu pandemic is not unfounded.

"The most severe pandemic in 1918 and 1919 was caused by a virus that originated in birds, an Avian Influenza, but then acquired the ability to spread among humans," Pearce said. The 1918 flu pandemic caused an estimated 50 million deaths worldwide.

In the event of a pandemic people should plan on being confined to their homes for at least three weeks. That means they will need to have enough food and health supplies.

Dr. Jim Sammons, vice president of medical affairs at Sentara Williamsburg Regional Medical Center, is a Ford's Colony resident and a member of the pandemic flu committee.

Sammons said that day-to-day activities such as grocery shopping could become more difficult as people try to avoid exposure to a flu pandemic.

"One way to curtail the spread is to have people not mingle together," he said. "So how do you get groceries when you are supposed to stay away from others?"

Sammons said neighborhoods should consider developing a plan to receive and distribute goods to residents so that they don't have to leave their homes.

Neighborhoods should also consider that other basic services, such as power and water, could be affected in the event of a flu outbreak.

"If those we rely on cannot do their jobs, how do communities pick up the slack?" Sammons asked.

The idea is not to scare the public, but to inform them. Pearce said that so far the current avian flu virus does not spread easily from person to person. Most people who are infected have been in direct or close contact with infected birds.

"Over 300 hundred cases have occurred in people, and almost all of these people were exposed to birds," he said. "There is less than a handful of cases that are thought to be person-to-person exposures."

As of July there had been about 192 human deaths since 2003 attributed to the avian flu.

"A pandemic influenza is the term used to describe a worldwide outbreak of influenza that is due to an entirely new strain of influenza virus infecting humans,"Pearce said. "The virus is so different that people have no immunity from past infections with regular seasonal influenza or from past influenza vaccines.

"As a result, the number of people who become ill and the severity of their illlnesses will be much greater," he said. "It is likely

that a person will be bedridden with high fever, cough and extreme fatigue for a week and require several weeks to fully recover."In preparation for a possible flu pandemic, the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services reported in July that enough antiviral drugs have been stockpiled to treat more than 50 million Americans in the event a pandemic should occur.

In April the Food & Drug Administration approved a new avian flu vaccine. So far enough doses to treat around 6 million people have been manufactured.

For its part, Sentara Williams­burg has long had an "all hazard" plan that includes planning for everything from a flu outbreak to a terrorist attack.

Sammons said in the event of a flu pandemic, the hospital will have to consider how to protect healthcare workers who will undoubtedly be exposed to the flu virus. The hospital will also have to consider the possibility that its own workforce could be diminished as a result of the flu.

"None of us knows if or when the avian flu virus will attack humans in significant numbers," he said. "But in the meantime, we are stockpiling various treatments, respirators and the other critical supplies for this event."

Even if a flu pandemic never hits the United States, the planning will not have been a waste.

"Many of the same types of supplies are useful in a biological attack from a terrorist, or a spontaneous outbreak of plague in the Southwest, or the next flu outbreak that occurs annually," Sammons said.

Want to go? The meeting on pandemic flu and the avian flu will be held at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 23, in the auditorium of Lafayette High School at 4460 Longhill Rd.