This guy is the biggest moron, doesn't understand the industry at all, doesn't understand trends, doesn't understand why gamers buy one game over another, doesn't understand why people buy one console over another, his opinion is irrelevant and he really should just be fired for his idiocy. When you're an analyst and you always get it wrong, you either get fired or people just stop listening to you. I can't believe this guy is still employed other than that people want to see a well paid guy say such stupid things

Do research b4 u make assumptions Take-two is a publisher they do not own red dead,gta,bio shock etc .. I think you have to be for sale to get purchased anyway take-two hasn't even announced they was interesting in selling

also COD is slowing down so how many more games before people stop caring? BO2 is one of the best COD games in a long time but its sales are down.

“We believe unit sales of Call of Duty: Black Ops II are tracking down double digits year-over-year,” says Bhatia. “Our checks show initial sales of CoD: Black Ops II at some retailers were down as much as 20 percent. Subsequently, it appears sales of CoD did pick up a bit over the Thanksgiving holiday. We think the current sales curve suggests CoD: Black Ops II unit sales in its first year could ultimately be down 10 percent to 15 percent year-over-year,”

now nintendo slowing down well that all depends on wii-u. 3rd party support is what will decide the success or failure for wii-u

but consider this the last nintendo console to get 3rd party support was NES

More inaccurate predictions this "analyst" is releasing! Just ignore him, he releases so much hot air that he should look for a new job to replace a hot-air balloon's burner - maybe he'll be more useful? However, he does have a point; imagine how rich Acti would be if COD:MP needed a subscription to simply play it? Imagine all of the different outcomes that could've happened. We say Acti are evil, but imagine if they'd chosen to charge for COD MP? They'd have more money than the number if stars in the sky!

He is not way off in what he said, if you read the article. The comments about Zynga are true and are not disputable. Just look at the stock price. In regard to Call of Duty, he was comparing it to an online subscription model (e.g., WoW) and was pointing out that CoD players predominantly play online only and many of them do not buy other games. So, for only $60, Activision does not make as much money as it could. He did not say that CoD was a failure in general (hell, it brought in over a half billion dollars on its first day!). As far as Nintendo, he was referring to the Wii U not having online players. He said that as good as CoD is on the Wii U, if no one is playing online, it is not looking like a good bet for future 3rd party support by other companies.

And finally, he talked about the state of the industry in general:

"He noted that in 2008, the market for packaged games in the US was $22.6 billion with $3 billion in digital revenue. By 2011, packaged goods revenue had fallen to $18.4 billion, and he's projecting a total of about $16 billion for 2012, with $12 billion in digital revenue. “Overall the game industry is really healthy,”

Like him or hate him, Pachter is an analyst who uses market data, stock prices, profit/loss of companies, earnings reports and other business predictors to develop his own predictions. These predictions are to guide investors, not to appease fanboys of this console or that console.

But that's just it; he advised people to buy into Zynga, saying the market involved was not a bubble. A market grown instantaneously from flighty unreliable consumer behaivior that suddenly grew faster than it could support. And now the bubble has burst.

Meanwhilr, he cites the wii as a bubble, despite its incredible success based around an industry standard of 6 years. It has sold more than 360 and ps3, but because its sales declined at the end of its life it was a bubble?

The problem with pach is he is not good at following market trends and rarely predicts accurate outcomes, which is pretty damn important if he is supposed to advise people on which companies to invest in. And that is at least 50% of his job...

I'm being completely honest with this question: has anything this guy said in the past couple years actually proven to be correct, or better yet, have any effect on the industry? No one here on N4G really seems to care about anything he says, myself included.

Lol at Nintendo and Activision can go die if they buy Take-Two. They would only buy it out of pure jealousy that they make quality games and Activision can only copy and paste one irrelevant game from 2005...

Yeah right. Activision will not be buying Take-Two. I don't see it happening as Activision were on the chopping block by their owner this year. I doubt that Vivendi would actually purchase Take-Two via Acti.

Look at Sony though economically they don't look good but only because they bought into so many different companies he's trying to say even if Activision was on the chopping block it would increase the chances of it's sale as it would be seen as a much more profitable company with them.

right... so the company that is completely and absolutely DOMINATING the entire country of Japan (numbers don't lie) is becoming irrelevant? Pachter you're a fucking dumbass. YOU'RE becoming irrelevant. I'd be surprised if anyone even watches your retarded show anymore.

You do know Japan is a tiny little country right? In the grand scheme of the whole world Japan's game market is not that important. Don't get me wrong I like Nintendo and love Japanese games but come on. Japan has not ruled the game world since the late 1990's. America and Europe are the only game territory's that really matter they make up the majority of the game sales and funding in the whole world. I own a wiiU and like it but if Nintendo becomes irrelevant in the us and Europe Japan will not save the company.

Numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the overall picture. You can sell a million piles of shit to dumbasses, but that doesn't mean they're actually using it. Yeah in other words. You can sell the most consoles, but are these buyers actually playing the console? Yes the Wii started out strong and ended up being the best selling consoles, but how many people were still playing it after the hype died down?

The Wii was nothing but a Gamecube with a gimmick. Hyped up by the media and it trended for a while and brought in a lot nongamers and celebrity hype, but in the end. They weren't real gamers and moved on. While the real gamers kept playing 360 and PS3. Nintendo fans bragged. We sold the most! Ha! So did Gangnam Style. Let's see how relevant he is in a few years.

How many people were still playing it? Quite a few as it happens since it also sold the most games this generation by a considerable margin...almost 200 million more games sold than either MS or Sony's machines.

Just because YOU didn't play it, doesn't mean no-one else did. Real gamers? Awww, that's cute. People that buy Mario and Legend of Zelda and Metroid - you know, those decades old gaming franchises? - I think can count as "real" gamers more than the high number of people who play just Call of Duty and Fifa/Madden every year.

Not only did Nintendo sell the most, they influenced the entire industry while doing so, to the point that both Sony and MS - you know, those companies for "real" gamers? - screamed "me too" and latched on to Nintendo's strategy in a desperate attempt to catch up to them. Sony wound up with the blatant Wii rip-off in Move, and MS wound up with a crappy new concept called Kinect.

You don't sell 30 million more consoles than your nearest rival, and 200 million more games by being a flash in the pan....that's consistent sales over the last 6 years.

I didn't play my wii much after it's frist few years but i know alot of people that are hardcore owners who just own a wii. It's safe to say it was know gimmick. The wii did have some great games but like the ps2 it had alot of bad ones too. Gamers play games not consuls.

Yes, so we can enjoy the benefits of yearly releases that would be much smaller in scale, reusing the same assets from the previous games, with virtually no upgrade in gameplay or graphics and half arsed DLCs for $15 every few months, definitely looking forward to it.....

Thank god these "predictions" are just as solid as Patcher's reputation.

1200 people playing a game that was the highest seller in November, 1200 people playing one of the number 1 sellers for video games in November on a console that has sold over 400,000 units at launch. Thats not even 1% of the console base buying / playing one of the biggest games out there. That is not a terribly good sign for other 3rd party publishers.

1200 people playing at any one time...that's not the same as only 1200 people playing the game. Black Ops 1 on 360 sold over 10 million copies, yet I only ever saw 250,000-300,000 online at any one time. You see how the numbers lie? The 360 and PS3 versions of that game are established, as is their online presence. The WiiU is brand new to the market, is launching in very limited numbers and has yet to establish an online service in the minds of the games buying public. The numbers will grow in time. You think Activision were doing the numbers they are now back at the start? Of course they weren't. You really expect all 400,000 buyers of the WiiU to buy Call of Duty? No game sells to every customer....it just doesn't happen, especially with a console that has not traditionally had the game and online service that goes with it. It's WAY to early to be writing the thing off, and thankfully those in charge at games companies are more realistic than the majority of gamers and wild speculators such as Pachter.

How do YOU know that a lot of people aren't buying them for Xmas? I bought one for my son for Xmas and I know a couple of other people that have bought one for their kids. And my sons name's not Timmy either, who is this Timmy you speak of?

@RuperttheBear... LOL, OK so I must have mixed you up with a different parent with a child named Timmy. As for the Xmas situation... I have zero doubts there are some parents out there getting WiiU's at launch for Xmas gifts, but lets be real here... the vast majority of first adopters on a system like this are not typical mom & dad Xmas shoppers but rather people like yourself that are gamers. Also, please drop the facade we know you bought the WiiU for yourself and are masking it via your childs Xmas gift. :)

Awesome, GTA will be a dumbed down 8 hour crime simulator with no free roaming and Borderlands will be a 6 hour run of the mill FPS, both coming out with annual rehashes. Can't wait! Oh...it's Patcher, never mind.

Well then if Nintendo is irrelevant than Michael Patcher is the reincarnation of Jesus Christ because he is capable of creating miracles out of thin air with his predictions.

But like all good business analysts most of the time they are very wrong about the future. I remember all the annalists who bet heavily on a ton of dot.com websites and they ended up ruining a ton of people with their predictions.

I dont listen to Pachter after what he said a couple of years ago about Borderlands 1 going to be a flop. And wouldnt PS4 and Xbox720 games cost more money to develop for than WiiU exclusive games. Look at how much it cost Sony and MS to make blockbuster games on their current gen consoles compared to Wii exclusives.