Google's future all about clicks

The simple fact of fewer people pressing a button on a computer mouse can send an ominous message throughout the financial world.

Many Google Inc. shareholders in November were confident their more than $747 stock would exceed $1,000 a share by now. Onward and upward. The sky's the limit. You can't stop the future. Have you read all the stories about us?

Instead, Google shares are under $500. Latecomers to the party were especially whacked by the downturn.

The silence of the clicks: Research firm ComScore Inc. reported the number of U.S. Internet users clicking on Google's search ads in February declined 3 percent from January, a second disappointing month in a row. Google attributed this to improvement in how its advertising clicks are handled. Some pundits maintained a click reduction actually allows the company to charge more per click in the future.

Investors aren't buying it.

This latest "click watch," whatever it ultimately indicates, shows how volatile technology can be. There is never a 100 percent sure thing because even a few lackluster months can erode invincibility.

The Internet search business makes up 90 percent of Google's net revenue. Online advertising, which provides high returns on investment, had been growing by leaps and bounds. Although some experts noted it wasn't a great idea to have all of a company's eggs in one basket, no one had held such a lucrative basket.

But Yahoo Inc. once was the 900-pound gorilla of search engines. Software giant Microsoft Corp. was once anointed the fearsome ruler of new technology. Today, a mature Microsoft is urging a merger with a reluctant Yahoo to provide viable competition for Google.

Google still boasts a strong brand, powerful resources, innovative technology, economies of scale, lots of cash and great global potential. It would take a lot for any company to overtake it. But such things do happen in an industry that lives and dies by click of a mouse.