Given the events of the last twelve months (shock retirements, "homeworkgate", a near team mutiny, a coach sacked a month before the Ashes), you can make a case for 5-0 England, but I think our bowling attack has some bite, and we'll be in the series if we can find some stability at the top of the batting and keep England in the field a long time - this is a big if though!

It's hard to see England giving up the Ashes on home soil with four of their greatest all time players in the side in Anderson, Swann, Pietersen and Cook, but in the right conditions I see us giving your bats a tough time, and generally a closer series than the last two, but the proven class of England at home will likely be too much. That said I really hope we steal the first test and put England under some pressure.

Prediction : England 3-1

The crucial first toss of the series has been won by England, who will bat first on a pitch tailor made for Swann to cause nightmares on his home ground.

Ah, there you are. I figured this event would call you out of the woodwork.

Australian cricket has been such an utter joke in recent times I'd be astounded if we even manage to win a Test.

We're wasting the new ball (although as I type Pattinson finally gets one somewhere near the stumps and Cook is gone) and while bowling is our "strength" I don't think it's as big a plus as it's being made out to be. Clarke aside, the batting looks incredibly poor.

A bit of a nightmare looms, methinks.

Edit: With all the dramas and upheavals in recent times, I do wish someone somewhere had the backbone to drop Watson. What a useless, overrated and overhyped no-hoper he is. Right down there in the Mitchell Johnson depths of uselessness, IMO.

You'd have to think it's the last chance saloon for (t)Watto - if we go down in the first two tests, his head will be the first to roll.

I didn't mind that session to be honest from our point of view. I thought the quicks were nervous, and Siddle was awful till he knocked over Root. Hopefully the sight of those stumps fling everywhere will encourage them to pitch it up.

Trott worries me - he is all class and too much leg-side stuff was served up to him.

Agar looks like he bowls with nice shape - I don't think Trott particularly enjoyed facing him - hopefully he gets another go at Trott soon.

Vital session now - knock over Pietersen and Trott before tea and it's game on, but if they're still there in two hours we're in big trouble.

What a session - I was getting excited when Siddle removed the danger men Pietersen and Trott, but then we really let it slip for half an hour as Bairstow and Bell took control. Re-enter Siddle who removed Bell with a beautiful outswinger, then Prior threw his wicket away, handing Siddle his fifth wicket and leaving the hosts in a deep hole.

Disappointing session from Agar and Starc - way too short. Clarke needs to give his young spinner some protection on the cut.

All we need is a smidgen of support for Siddle here and we can finish this day well on top. Who would have thought?

Giving up for the night. Good fight back by England, Australia 4 down for 53. Two ducks, Cowan and Clarke with Watson and Rogers the others gone. Not sure how much time is left for the day, but at this rate England looks like they could be going into their second innings with a decent lead.

It will be painful operating on three hours' sleep today, but absolutely worth it - really enjoyed the day, even though we had yet another top order capitulation.

That delivery that got Clarke from Anderson is up there with the '93 Warne/Gatting ball - what a bowler this guy is.

So it seems all the hard work of Siddle has gone out the window, with Australia at 4/75 at stumps. There is some hope for Australia to regain the initiative - Smith is still there and looking positive, we bat deep, the wicket is not causing nightmares, and the overhead conditions may improve. Also it will be bloody tough for England if Broad is still unable to bowl tomorrow.

So, our usual collapse hands England the honours for Day 1, but, that aside, it was a fantastic viewing.

I conked out after the first session and thus managed to miss most of the day's events. Typical.

It would be nice if Siddle would learn to pitch the ball up all the time, instead of huffing around bowling the assortment of short crap he seems to imagine will be productive at this level. (His tendency to drift into the pads is also damned annoying; someone like Trott will dine out on that into eternity.) He'd then be a far better and more useful bowler. Good thing he stepped up, though, since the others didn't do much.

Watson apparently has yet another injury (in other news, the sun rises in the east and water is wet). Then he played yet another one day / hit 'n' giggle-style stupid shot. Can we just get rid of him already?

Yet again the top order has wasted the good work of the bowlers. Nothing new for this lot. It's a major worry to be looking to Hughes to save the day but hopefully he and Smith can dig in.

Wow, I stopped watching after Starc got out and Australia was 9 down and just under 100 behind, and come back to see Agar has scored more than a run a ball to get to 58 with Hughes under 50 and Australia just hitting 200. What on earth have the English been up to to allow the Aussies get out of an utter humiliation?

We can thank Steve Finn for that. After a reverse swing masterclass from Anderson (who I am thinking is one of the all time greats) and a typically damaging display from Swann reduced us to 9-117, on came Finn bowling one of the worst spells of test bowling I have ever seen - there wouldn't have been a ball pitched in the batsman's half for three overs, and, unfathomably, Cook allowed it to continue while Hughes and Agar helped themselves to a feast of square cuts and grew suddenly confident.

Before you knew it, Agar (who is no number 11, obviously) was belting the bowling to all parts, and found himself the first #11 in the history of the game to score a fifty on debut.

Get to your TV's guys - we could be witnessing one of the most famous partnerships in Ashes history here, if Australia win it.

This has been one of the great tests - seriously how many twists and turns have there been? An hour ago I would have written us off for this game, but all of a sudden we have a lead.

If I were an England fan, I'd be a bit worried about your captain : what was he doing out there?

This has been an extraordinary game. I'm a bit concerned what Cook and Trott will do to us on this wicket this afternoon, but, if somehow Hughes and Agar can continue batting with freedom for another hour, we might be in business here.

Agar (98) didn't quite get there, but you feel the 163 he put on with Hughes (can't forget his efforts surviving the onslaught last night and making 81*) will be remembered as one of the great sessions of Ashes cricket, particularly if we win this, which is now a distinct possibility.

Pattinson and Starc were really on the money before tea, and Root didn't look like he was going to last long, even if his leg side feather through to Haddin off Starc was a little unlucky.

Then, next ball - one of the biggest moments of the test : Starc traps Trott plumb LBW first ball and is unbelievably given not out. Clarke, never one to die wondering, reviewed it, and England's biggest danger (in my opinion) was on his bike, although he did not look happy about it.

Starc is on a hattrick, Australia have all the momentum, and I am just gobsmacked at how good this game has been. One of the great Ashes matches no matter what happens from here.

Captain Cook and arrogand dickhead both despatched, so Session 1, Day 3 goes to the tourists. England are 4/157, leading by 92, with a very frustrated Bell and Bairstow seeing off a reverse swing barrage from Pattinson just before lunch.

Very pleasing to see Agar get his first test wicket, finding the edge of Cook to give Clarke a very sharp slips catch. This is a bit of a worry as well, as Swann will be using the same patch to turn it away from our lefties. Anyway, Agar looks like he will cause a lot of trouble with his height. I must say the spinners I always hated were the tall ones who could get bounce, and Ashton, in the right conditions will be a handful.

Adding to the difficulty of the emerging rough patches, the wicket looks to be completely dead already. I would want to see Bell and Prior go before tea. I think anything over 150 would be very tough for us to chase.

A big test of patience for Bell and Bairstow coming up.

One major negative for us though - Clarke and Haddin have wasted both of our referrals with utterly pointless reviews. I wish he would just stick to reviewing the howlers. The way the umpiring has been in this game you just know there is going to be a vital plumb LBW after lunch that is given not out, and we will be powerless to do a thing about it.

Thank god we got rid of Prior in that session, he was taking the game away from us. Overall though, I'd give that session to England. Taking the new ball didn't work for us, and Pattinson and Starc bowled poorly for mine.

Have to give Bell some serious credit for his 56 from 134 balls - an innings very few of our team could play, and his wicket is just so vital after tea.

So how confident should we be of chasing down 200? Not very. Here is the list of highest successful chases at Trent Bridge :

All the debate will be over Dar's inexplicable not out decision in the favour of Broad when he basically middled it to first slip off Agar, but you cannot speak highly enough about Bell's innings in the conditions and circumstances of the match.

I'm almost beginning to wonder if India have a point about the DRS (not something I ever imagined I've ever think or type). My understanding is that it was introduced to (at best) eliminate or (at worst) greatly minimise the sort of howler we saw overnight, but instead it seems to be employed to adjudicate line-ball lbws and to produce the sort of decision we saw the day before. How the hell Trott could possibly have been given out is beyond my ability to comprehend. The fact the third umpire is powerless to do anything about the sort of situation Dar found himself in is absurd, but there it is.

To compound the stupidity, former England captain Nasser Hussein apparently described Broad's decision not to walk as "courageous". I'm sure an Australian who did likewise would be described as gutless by the same individual. Whatever. No one walks any more and that's all there is to it, really.

Anyway. We need to move on and we need to do so very quickly. England probably need only another 40-50 runs to have the game in the bag unless Clarke can produce something truly exceptional.