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Wednesday, February 26

Brisk winds & the cold air over us on this Wednesday, believe it or not, will turn even worse during the day Thursday & especially Thursday night & Friday. Little to no snow will fly for most through tonight, but after 7 or 8am a batch of snow will move in & be heavy at times with a reinforcing shot of Arctic air blowing in during the mid to late morning hours. Flurries & squalls will become more concentrated up near Lake Ontario as the afternoon progresses & the front moves away. About 1 to 3" of snow will likely fall for everyone Thursday, but several inches as depicted in the graphic above will pile up near the lake. Temperatures will fall from 15 to 20 in the morning back to near 10 by late in the day Thursday with winds sustained between 15 & 30, & gusts 30 to 40 mph! These winds will create significant blowing & drifting snow reducing visibility to near 0 at times even outside the falling snow right into early Thursday night. Wind chills average around -10 throughout Thursday, but at times will get down to -15 to -20 late Thursday through the start of Friday! Lake snows could be very significant in far Northern Orleans, Monroe & Wayne counties later Thursday afternoon through Thursday night & quite possibly lingering into Friday morning. Around & north of the Thruway snow accumulations will likely be minimal at best, with little to no accumulation expected for most.

A little snow will fly in advance of a cold front Saturday, & some more measurable snows will be probable Saturday night into Sunday morning with the help of lake enhancement/effect. Then we will focus our attention on a storm developing south early to mid next week. We'll see how much of an impact it actually has on us as we near & get into the weekend. Stay tuned.

News 8 or CCCC this storm potential is confusing to me but I am a rookie. How would this be a BIG storm with the current pressure over a 1000mb and am I mistaken that both GFS and EURO are predicting extreme cold starting Friday into next week. Is it not hard to get a strong storm with really cold air. Plus with this PV in place and HP would that not suppress this storm to the south and we are out of big snows?

It's not a strong storm but it's still a snowy one because of the stationary frontal boundary transporting moisture from the Gulf. How much suppression occurs depends on the strength of the high/polar vortex.

I haven't been talking about it because it's pretty much a given that the significant amounts will be localized. Most of us will see much lighter amounts. Plus I've been focusing much more on the weekend event. Who really wants to hear about Sodus getting another half foot anyway, it's same old same old for them :P

I would not make assumption as to where people live who might be asking questions; not Sodus, try Greece. However, I am sure folks in Sodus would feel differently as to the comment that you "don't want to hear about Sodus" as many drive from Sodus to jobs in Rochester.

Euro and CGEM have all trended further north... And I hate to say it but the NAM has done a pretty good job handling these shortwaves riding along a stalled front this entire winter so I am interested to see later runs.

Slight ticks north today on the weekend event. These frontal systems are tricky...I remember back in early December there was a frontal system projected to spread snow all the way up to the southern Finger Lakes. Instead, the snow ended up almost entirely across Pennsylvania. I agree with Weatherguy that the NAM is worth looking at in future runs, because it was the only model to properly depict the aforementioned December event.

Not quite "right in the middle" but he does appear to be favoring a more northerly idea and a significant snowfall across much of NY state. I'd argue that the only Accuweather expert who doesn't have a clue is Henry Margusity. I'll never forget late January when he said the early February snowstorms would all hit the upper Midwest. He was 1/5 on that call, the very first one struck Chicago up through lower Michigan then all of the others were further south.

At this point Rochester misses out on the Snow this weekend. The GFS and Canadian models are all south and we miss out. The EURO is the outlier. The EURO has done horrible this winter. I believe we will miss this one.

THE FIRST SWATH OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWS WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAYWITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND THENSTALLS OUT NEAR NY/PA BOARDER. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS)ARE INGENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCALPOINT FOR THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERNCENTRAL U.S. ALTHOUGH...THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW IS NOTFAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM AND IT GENERALLY LEAVES THEREGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOWS ATTHIS POINT REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKESWHERE IT IS LIKELY TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWSBEFORE THE LOW RACES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. BEHIND THIS STORMSYSTEM...A LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE LOWERGREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COLD TUESDAYTHROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.

SORRY. NOT ALOT OF SNOW FOR ROCHESTER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. UNDER 100" FOR THE YEAR STILL A GOOD BET

They said through *the majority* of next week. After that point there is another storm chance that you will promptly downplay when you read this post :P

80.6 inches on the season so far. Odds are we'll pass 85 by dawn Sunday, then assuming at least another few inches by Tuesday we'd be around a foot away from 100 with more winter chill to come. Although to be frank I'm beginning to really lose interest in getting to 100 inches, I just want the bitter cold to be over with so I can walk outside without my blood solidifying -_-

No I'm still reasonably confident we'll reach 100. I just don't particularly care whether I'm right or not, I'd rather it be mild enough to keep my blood in liquid form. The amount of cold we're getting (and going to get) is just obnoxious at this point IMO. The tipping point for me was when I saw today's model projections for more asinine cold over the next week+. And I used a few inches for the weekend storm potential as a conservative baseline, obviously we could receive much more than that.

Excellent article. One of the major biases of the GFS is that it's too flat and progressive with weather features. I would imagine the higher resolution resulting from greater computing power would allow it to "see" smaller features that add up en masse to slow down and amplify larger features. It might also allow for better handling of convective features, and reduce the convective feedback issues that sometimes plague the model and cause it to form phantom secondary circulations that significantly alter its track depictions. Higher resolution would also keep it from "over-correcting" like it also tends to do, where it has more volatile swings within a general consensus than many other models.

Even if we reach 100", which I do not think we will officially, that is still nothing to be excited about. This has been a cold winter, but not a lot of snow unless you are North of RT104, which is not the majority of us. The storms we have had have been a month apart and the lake effect for South of RT104 has been weak at best. It is just disappointing to me that it has been a cold winter but it was wasted with not a lot of storms. I am ready for the cold to go away and warmer temps to come.

It says we average 4-5 storms of 6+ inches each winter, although the airport is closer to the 4 line. We've gotten storms of 6+ inches on November 26th, December 15th, January 1st-2nd and February 5th. There's your 4 right there. Maybe you were including moderate (3-6 inch) storms, in which case there is no recorded average count that I know of. Frankly it amazes me that we're not running well below average on snowfall given the startling lack of lake effect at the airport. Normally it accounts for half of our snowfall, this season it's more like 15-20 percent.

Not all cold winters are equal. Some are snowy while others are not. It all depends on the features causing it, and this season it's been the dreaded polar vortex a lot of the time. This feature being largely in and around eastern Canada has maintained a more westerly mean flow across the Great Lakes and kept the lion's share of the lake effect well east of Rochester. It has also suppressed a good number of storm systems, or even sheared them apart completely. The persistently negative EPO has been the primary driver I suspect. Had our cold been the result of a negative NAO instead we might be looking at vastly different snowfall numbers, and perhaps more storms.

Snowdog come on you say the same thing over and over. What happens if this storm blows up and we are in the bulls eye for over a foot? I know you get on here and say I apologize and I am the biggest complainer in the history of weather?

Just watched channel 13. They state that the big snows will stay south of us. The Southern Tier could get a good amount. Just light stuff for us through all of next week. Believe me I want snow just like everyone else but we are going to miss out yet again. We are not in the storm track right now.

"Looks like the big snow will be staying south of us but it is something you can bet that we are going to be keeping close tabs on" That was GJ on 13 and boy he sounded 100 percent sure. Please Snowdog are you taking me up on what I said in my previous post?

He clearly didn't look at the 0z GFS then, because it has trended way farther North putting us in the main snow shield. Still keeps the bigger snow a little further south, but still gives us a decent snowfall. But again, way to early to make the call on this one...

Maybe I am crazy but the last 4 runs of the GFS has us in an 8-10 in range does it not? What is up with all out local mets saying it is going south. Scott just said on his forecast we may get a few inches most of the heavy stuff in mid Atlantic? I do not get it. Didn't the EURO also show favorable heavy snow for us. I wish Scott would explain?

Euro was close but not quite. GFS was in the 6-8 range. Right now I'd say the northern Mid Atlantic is the favored area for the highest amounts, but that doesn't mean surrounding regions can't see significant totals. Also keep in mind that this includes a couple of inches from the initial wave Saturday night.

But wait CCCC the last 4 runs pretty consistent with much of Pa. getting 14-16 inches? This includes western Pa. I do not know I am a rookie but it looks we are not that far away and little movement north each day will put us in a foot plus category. Again who am I to question the pro. mets

The most reliable runs are 12 and 0z GFS runs. Those for the last four runs have us real close to the foot plus line. The movement has been a tick north each time and we have 3 days plus before storm is here. I am confused by out mets saying south of us for sure? Wish Scott would explain why he is so confident as he said the Mid-Atlantic will get the big stuff?

Scott has been overconfident at times this season. IMO the only certainty is that someone will get a potentially significant snowstorm. Foot+ amounts are still restricted to the southern tier on the GFS, but they've definitely been getting closer.

CCCC so are you saying that the local met are incorrect on this weekend, and we should expect to be hit with a winter storm. Each response posted give a different answer. So bottom line, what is your weather forecast for the weekend.

I'm saying the local mets are jumping the gun by declaring a set outcome when the models are still trying to figure things out. Personally I have no SPECIFIC scenario to favor, but GENERALLY I'm liking the northern half of the guidance envelope.

I really do not see what you guys are talking about. I agree with the Mets. Heavy snow South and East. We will be lucky to see a couple inches. PA looks to be the target for BIG snow. We will be spectators. Unfortunately another miss for us. We are used to it though.

Right now our snowfall pattern is exactly where we were in the winter of 1955-1956. We exited Feb with 80.7" for the season (right where we are now) and ended up with 121" for the season. The bummer is that we also got 7" in April that year also.

Based on where I expect we will exit Feb (somewhere between 81"-87" for the season) at KROC, I give us 67% chance of exceeding 100" for the season, and about a 35% chance of hitting my original target I set at the end of December of 110". Unfortunately it also means a good chance of getting more than 2x the average April snowfall. I'd rather be wrong if it means we need to get accumulating snow in April.

Here is my unofficial forecast for this weekends snow event. For the Sunday-Monday time frame, the heaviest snow will stay south closer to the NY PA state line. Closer to the lake, we should expect a general coating to maybe 1-2 inches at the most. It will remain very cold for this time of year right until the end of next week. After that the pattern will slowly change to a more favorable spring like pattern. March might turn out to see more sun and warmer temperatures. Though it is way out, April might be a soggy and cool month. This summer will be extremely hot and dry. Let's be glad that we did get a decent snow pack this winter to compensate for the lack of moisture we will see this summer.

The odds of Rochester being right in the bullseye are pretty small at the moment, but that still does not mean we can't get significant amounts. My whole point that I've been stressing for days now is that it's too early to latch on to a specific outcome. This isn't a 100 percent guaranteed miss, or a 100 percent guaranteed anything for that matter. There is enough time remaining for this thing to shift up to 75 miles either direction. Patience.

I noticed the GGEM has diverged substantially from the GFS, by about 100 miles or so. This tells me that the models still don't have a clear handle yet. Again, patience. Kind of funny how several northward ticks yesterday meant nothing, now we get a few southward ticks and suddenly it's over. At the very least we should get 2-4 inches or so from the anabatic front later Saturday, which is a good deal more substantial than "a few flurries."

In the meantime, sun to squall in less than 5 minutes at my residence. Visibility is down to a few hundred feet. The main squall out over the lake looks like it means business.

"MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE CONTINUED DEEPEN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE AREA OF SNOW AND BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA."

I lean towards 2-4 because I know how these anabatic fronts like to overachieve. And it will take more than a few model ticks to convince me of any specific outcome for the big guy for at least a day. I will continue to exercise patience.

Only once we see more consistency and agreement amongst the guidance. There have been some pretty sizable shifts just in the past day or so. Even the Euro experienced a substantial jump during the past 24 hours. Trends have been both ways recently as well.

Agree CCCC. For those of us that have lived around here long enough, we've seen many a storm that were supposed to be a big deal only to bust and those that were supposed to be nothing turned into something.

Interesting Stacey on her forecast just now says storm track very much up in the air. Last night Scott pretty sure minimal snow and storm impacting Mid Atlantic areas. I guess as CCCC is right be patient and wait and see.

"THE ANABATIC SLOPED ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT IN ITS WAKE WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW...AS RELATIVELY `MILD` -8 TO -10C AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO AS HIGH AS 10K FT AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS IN ITS WAKE. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST A 5 TO 10K FOOT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SO VERY EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED. WITH THIS IN MIND...QPR OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH COULD EASILY SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. HAVE THUS RAISED POPS TO 100."

Why are we still talking about this storm. We will miss out, period. We will be on the Northern fringes of this and we will be spectators once again. We will watch PA, NJ, NYC, Boston get hammered again. Lets move on and talk about how there are no storms in site for us through all of next week High and dry.

So we're still in the game. Period. And why on Earth would anyone want to talk about there being no storms? That's like having a discussion about blank stamps. It can only lead to the same thing being said ad nauseum and it quickly gets obnoxious. If nothing is happening, mention it exactly once then quit posting until something interesting/useful crops up or someone asks about it. As long as nothing interesting is being mentioned we can assume nothing is happening, there's really no need to bring it up every 12 hours. It's not like we'll be entering an indefinite boring pattern anyway, next weekend MAY introduce a critter worth watching.

I had an interesting and relevant experience on my way back from getting dinner. I usually cut through one of the nearby apartments to warm up a little bit on my way back home, and while I was in there a delivery person from a nearby Chinese restaurant came to the building. She saw me and requested to use my phone to notify the person she was delivering to that she had arrived. She told me she was asking because it was so brutal outside that she didn't want to go back and check her car for her phone, which had gone missing. Her car was parked 15 feet from the building. I'll repeat that again: it was too cold for this person to want to walk 15 lousy feet to their car. Lucky for her I arrived there when I did and not a moment sooner, otherwise she would've been stuck outside for awhile because these apartments require ID cards to enter.

Oh, and one of my nostrils nearly froze shut on the way there. Pretty crazy stuff.

Not-so-secret gossip alert: It's not necessarily that I think he'll be wrong on stuff, or that I don't believe his dire predictions to be possible. It's that he jumps the gun and lays the kibosh before the situation becomes clear enough to do so. Give him an inch and he'll take a mile. Models trend unfavorably for a few runs, cancel the storm or call it a bust. Some expert says "likely a miss," translation: "definitely a miss." NWS discussion says dry for a week, well clearly it'll go beyond that. Models show little snow for a few weeks, well that'll probably extend through the rest of the month as well (see: December 2013). I know it might seem like I'm constantly playing the role of the starry-eyed optimist around here, well that's mostly to balance out the negativity expressed here by more than one person. I rarely have to counter any overzealous optimists, because there are none around. Honestly I think I'd rather have a bunch of them, they're a lot more fun to talk to and far less annoying (still somewhat annoying, but a cute kind of annoying like an excitable puppy). But I digress, this is starting to ramble a bit off topic. I hope Snowdog reads this and engages in some introspection.

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All the optimists and most of the realists (and the people who know what they are talking about) left this blog a long time ago. I'm sure many like me still read, but most of the vets don't post anymore. The trolls and whiners won lol. I'm just crossing my fingers for not having to get up and teach at 6am tomorrow. Come on RCSD, don't freeze the children.

The trolls and whiners are allowed to prattle on because the only people with mod powers are rarely here. And when they are here it's always one and done, a single informative post and that's it for at least a day. I bet most or all of those aforementioned people migrated to actual forums with actual moderation, where trolls and whiners don't have a chance to fester.

Amen. I do remember a time when the powers that be were around on a much more frequent basis. That was years ago. I'm sure the whinertrolls played a role in their disappearance, and having followed suit I can't say I blame them.

Yes you can and you never know wind and a dream. Air temps will be cold enough need the winds to keep kicking and your dream will come true. However, no one is probably even monitoring the wind chill in the schools.

Ahh the King of the Naysayers may finally get one correct lol. Every dog has its day after all. Funny thing is we actually get a tad more snow on this NAM run than the last one. Still not giving up on the possibility of significant amounts though, it'll take a few more unfavorable runs consistently agreeing to get me to settle for Saturday's field goal frontal snows.

Not looking good CCCC we may to send the FG kicker out and take the 3 inches. Time is running out we are out of timeouts and Snowdog is blitzing. If the 12z GFS and EURO stay south tonight lets kick it before we turn the ball over.

I have ben right just as many times as you have been wrong CCC. Every week you say we could get a big storm. Eventually you will be right. I love how you say someone is being negative just because they disagree with you and your model analysis. Models do not tell the whole story. You also have to look at history and climate. The fact is that we do not get many storms here in Rochester. Most go to our West or South and East. I give my opinion the way I see it and yes I am not always correct just like you, but it is my opinion. This storm will miss us, period, end of story. Do I want it to hit us, yes. I am not being negative because I say it will miss us. Mamma mia!!!!!! Stop slamming me because I go against what you say. To get excited over a few inches of snow with a front this weekend seems a little ridiculous. This is a typical nickel and dime pattern that we are all so used to and it is boring. Sorry if that is being negative but if you are honest you would also state that you are tired of missing these snowstorms. If you say you are not than you are a liar.

Oh sweet baby Jesus, glad these miserable essays kept me up this late so I could come here and write another one -_-

"I have ben right just as many times as you have been wrong CCC."This says very little by itself. Although I definitely screwed the pooch on what looked at one point to be a decent storm on Wednesday, but at least I justified my thoughts with something. Not like I was alone on that opinion either. I'll admit to largely forgetting about that one until now.

"Every week you say we could get a big storm."That's because we've had at least one new storm modeled somewhere in the East almost every week. And I never go beyond vague terms until more details become clear. Notice that I never say "we WILL get a big storm." And I'm pretty sure I don't always hint that it could be big, I can only remember doing that once or twice.

"Eventually you will be right."I've already been right once (mostly). Granted it wasn't a "big" storm, but then I never said it would be. I also said the East was in for a stormy time in early February. Guess what happened...

"I love how you say someone is being negative just because they disagree with you and your model analysis."Wrong, they're being negative because they almost always side with negative outlooks.

"Models do not tell the whole story."And in other news, it was cold outside today...

"You also have to look at history and climate."Already done that almost to excess.

"The fact is that we do not get many storms here in Rochester. Most go to our West or South and East."That's no reason to assume they'll all do that. I feel like you do this a lot.

"I give my opinion the way I see it and yes I am not always correct just like you, but it is my opinion."You almost always have the same opinion though...

"This storm will miss us, period, end of story."Can't completely disagree there. Still a sliver of a chance we get something decent out of it IMO.

"I am not being negative because I say it will miss us."Not right now you aren't, but you were when you had this level of conviction when the situation wasn't settled yet.

"Stop slamming me because I go against what you say."Trust me, I'm being gentle. And it's not because you go against what I say, it's because you always say the same thing no matter the situation or evidence.

"To get excited over a few inches of snow with a front this weekend seems a little ridiculous."Then I choose to be a little ridiculous. I may not be excited per se, but I'll be content with whatever we get.

"This is a typical nickel and dime pattern that we are all so used to and it is boring."To me it's not boring. That's just, like, my opinion man. You can keep yours, it looks too pointy for my taste.

"Sorry if that is being negative but if you are honest you would also state that you are tired of missing these snowstorms."I'm not tired of missing these storms because I've learned to accept that it happens most of the time. I just don't see a need to talk incessantly about it.

"If you say you are not than you are a liar."See above.

Anyway this mammoth pile of word vomit I've just created has to be the biggest effort post in the history of effort posts, but I hope it can clarify a few things. If it doesn't, oh well I tried. I promise I'll back off on criticizing you if you can at least try to express a few shades more optimism from time to time. I know I can be snarky sometimes (read: a lot) especially towards you, but it's never meant to antagonize. It's just what I do, and I never expect anyone to take it seriously. These are all my honest thoughts and I'm not about to alter them. I will say no more on the matter, feel free to speak your peace once/if you read this but don't expect a response from me. I don't care much for internet drama and I already regret partaking in it.

It is amazing some of the BIG cities have had close to what we have seen so far. Example: Philadelphia. They have seen almost 60" of snow this year, They could see at least a ft from this next storm which will put them at least 72 inches. We are up to 82" I believe. Not sure how the airport recorded 2.2" yesterday with that front as they have been so accurate recording snowfall this year. LOL

Just a testament to the persistent suppression pattern and how bad our luck has been with lake effect. Gotta say I feel kind of left out when I see all of the bloated snow numbers of so many other places around us. Overperforming clippers have downsloped themselves to oblivion at our doorstep, Canadian high pressure has kept most recent storms to our south, zero Georgian Bay connections for significant NW flow lake effect with an unusually high percentage of it hugging the lake shore. Toledo broke their all time record for a season recently while several other Midwest cities are in their top 5. Heck even Buffalo is way above average right now. Syracuse finally decided to break through as well. The snow depth in Toronto reached 2 feet at one point and they're nearing a record amount of consecutive days with a measurable snow depth. And then of course there's the coastal regions. Just attribute it to poor luck on our part that nothing truly remarkable snowfall-wise has occurred here this season, but maybe that will change at some point during this seemingly endless winter assault.

The towel is thrown in on this officially! CCCC we got sacked and I am punting. Not even in field goal range now. Maybe there will be another one to track next week and we can miss again ha ha. The Snowdog wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Since when do we go by what the local weather people say. CCCC is our local weather person, and we look forward to the daily/weekly forecasts to plan our day/week. Looking for your forecast for Saturday and Sunday -- so that we can plan our weekend.

NAM looks pretty similar to everything else, We still look good for an advisory type snowfall from the front though. And please dear lord don't rely on me for forecasts, that puts way too much pressure on me to get it right. Besides, I lack any sort of professional credentials. I just try my hand in this stuff because it's fun, if you want a forecast to plan your weekend around then stick to the experts as your primary source. I'm not saying you should just disregard what I say, but the pros who do this for a living deserve the most weighting. I can be a second or third opinion at best.

I think even CCCC has to give up on this being anything but a 2-3 inch deal at this point. All models consistent that this storm is well south and hitting Mid-Atlantic as Scott said a few days ago. Kudos to Scott that is why you RMA. Plus Snowdog was pretty solid about this too.

Consider my towel thrown on anything significant. I will gladly take a moderate snowfall while I play the following song for the Mid Atlantic folks in the hope that they bust (warning: language inappropriate for children or workplaces):