Our Latest Paper

What are the biggest local advertisers planning? This insightful report details what they're buying and how that's changing, as well as insights into the types of marketing technology they utilize and what they're doing with video marketing. The conclusions lead to trouble ahead for those who've come to rely on these big guys. Read more.

Big changes are on the horizon for local ad spending. We've been monitoring a booming economy, the exit of bellweather retailers, the expansion of cheaper DIY social media, and other dynamic factors. Subscriber Only.

There was a lot of negative press about Facebook in 2018, so we wondered how local advertisers might be reacting. This 17-page report takes their pulse on how effective Facebook marketing, how that's changed, what they're spending, what they're accomplishing, and who's handling their posts. The findings come from a survey of our SMB panel that we conducted in late September. It includes more than a dozen charts and dozens of comments directly from survey participants. The report is available exclusively to subscribers.

Our annual Automotive Advertising Outlook is here, and the numbers paint a picture that makes pre-recession times look like the industry's heyday. U.S. Auto Advertising is on track to fall 7.3% this year, to $34.4 billion. Local TV seems to be bearing the brunt of the cuts, as new-car sales decline used-car sales go flat, and manufacturers and dealers try new things. But all types of media are feeling the pain.

This 15-page report delivers unique insights on how local businesses are spending their marketing dollars. The average SMB is now using eight different types of marketing -- up from 5 just a few years ago. You'll learn what's changing, what's staying the same, and why their cutting or expanding certain types of media budgets.

This is our third and final forecast for 2018 as we head into the post-Labor Day advertising frenzy. We've added $100 million to our latest forecast, putting the 2018 total at $8.9 billion. There's more flowing to local races, thanks to bountiful PAC money. All types of media stand to benefit, especially broadcast TV.

This 18-page report gets into the minds of local ad agencies and delivers fresh insights into what they're recommending for clients, and why. We asked about video, social media, types of media used, effectiveness and ROI of that media, and what's best for branding, selling, and ROI.

This 18-page report includes 17 charts and graphics from the survey results we collected from April through the end of June 2018. They represent a fascinating story that shows how, suddenly, hardly any SMBs are buying digital by itself or traditional media advertising by itself.

We devoted our monthly SMB panel questionnaire in March 2018 to one of the most powerful forms of marketing: Email. The 10-page summary offers insights on how they're using email, how many addresses they have, how long it takes to craft emails, and how email rates against other forms of direct marketing. FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

This year's political advertising bounty just got bigger. Our latest forecast for 2018 political advertising compiled after seeing the results in a few early primaries and one special election, adds more than $300 million to the total. We've also re-forecast spending across the various media channels. READ MORE

This 19-page report offers insights from our monthly panel of more than 1,000 local advertisers. We asked them for predictions in December 2017, then re-polled them in January 2018 on a hand-picked list of the ones we found most interesting. The result is a unique glimpse of how SMBs felt about 2017 and how optimistic they are about this year.

This 16-page reports offers unique insights gleaned from 1,640 local businesses we surveyed in 2017. It examines the spending habits of these advertisers, what else they're buying, how they measure Direct Mail campaign results, and what types of digital media they're utilizing.

The 2018 midterm elections are already in warm-up mode with nearly 2,000 candidates registered for 33 U.S. Senate seats. Add to that the thousands of House seats, gubernatorial and other statewide positions, and local judiciary, School Board, and municipal seats and ballot issues, and you get an advertising bonanza that's likely to total $8.5 billion, up 2.5% from the last midterm election year in 2014.

Given the deep fragmentation of today's media, the real-life/in-the-flesh experience of Event Marketing seems to have become all the rage. Our latest survey shows that 97% of all businesses engage in some type of event, and that more than half are either sponsoring an event or advertising during one

Local ad agencies are very influential, especially with the bigger advertisers. So what are they buying these days, and how do they feel about the rise of social media? This report summarizes findings from our survey of 666 local agencies and comes with an Excel file containing the full results.

What are local advertising doing right now? What will they do in 2018? The summary results from our annual survey of local advertisers -- the largest in the U.S. -- is now available. This 15-page report highlights how they're feeling about radio, TV, newspapapers, outdoor, and all other forms of media.

Our annual assessment of Real Estate advertising -- an ad category that rivals Automotive in size -- shows a return to healthy growth, up 4.1 percent this year. The most-watched real estate segment, spending by agents and brokers, is up even more. Our 2017 report details the ups and downs, including what's happening with the underpinnings of the industry -- home sales, construction permits, and who's buying homes.

At $37.4 billion this year, Automotive Advertising remains the largest ad segment in the nation. It's up 3.2% this year, but all the growth is coming from local dealers. Our annual report documents trends in ad spending across all tiers of the car-sales chain.

Local media’s digital efforts have evolved into a competitive $12 billion industry, representing an 18% share of all locally spent digital advertising. Newspaper, TV, cable, radio, and yellow page companies are driving tens to hundreds of millions of dollars via digital ad sales. For many, it’s one-fourth to one-third of total sales; for some, it’s more than half. This insightful 44-page report is our 15th annual assessment of how large these operations are getting, who’s gaining ground, and who’s losing.

Maybe you haven't heard of script bunnies, pixel stuffing, or domain spoofing, but they -- and dozens of other digital fraud -- are sapping big bucks from local publishers. How big is the problem? This 34-page, one-of-kind report buttons it down, gauging the impact of fraudulent digital advertising in each of more than 500 local U.S. markets.

Local franchise operations can be perplexing to media companies and ad agencies. Some spend millions on local advertising, while others ride along on national brand campaigns and don't spend a penny locally. This report, based on our survey of 500 franchises, examines what they're spending, where they're spending it, and how that's changing.

This 23-page report examines who's advertising on Facebook and why. It offers insights from a survey of 4,697 local businesses that are buying Facebook ads, gauges the level of spending market-by-market, and identifies where all the money is coming from.

While it wasn't the bounty many expected, 2016 was still a record year for political advertising. Our 14-page report takes a look at how last year's $9.8 billion was spent, and more importantly what changed. It also addresses the all-important question: Have things changed forever?

Social Media is transitioning from a "mostly free" to "mostly purchased" marketing tool. Today, 85% of local advertisers have a presence, and the vast majority of them are now buying their way into the social stream with advertisements. This 26-page report profiles who's participating in social media, who's buying, who's suffering, and which platforms are most popular.

TV advertisers are feeling pretty good about TV these days, but they're also feeling pretty good about digital media -- particular social media. What's about to change with these big spenders? This report lays it out -- from what they plan to cut, what they'll increase, how much they're spending, and how they feel about TV reps.

At $26.8 billion, Real Estate is one of the largest local advertising categories. And it's the first (and only category thus far) to see a scale-back of digital advertising. Our annual report details what's happening across all four categories - agents/brokers, rental managers, mortgage providers, and developers.

For our monthly panel of local business managers, we asked several questions about the Presidential candidates. Who would be best for small businesses? Will the election outcome have a bearing on small businesses? Will your advertising and marketing budgets be impacted? The results might surprise you... then again, they may not. This 5-page report is being made available exclusively to subscribers.

New vehicle sales are slowing and the ad spending is changing. The auto industry is a leader in digital marketing and that trend will continue. And why not? 3 out of the 5 top sources for leads are digital in nature, according to local auto dealers. As the focus on digital continues, the auto industry is beginning cull the weakest media from their budgets and keeping those that complement their digital initiatives best. If a traditional media company chose to focus on digital, that bet could soon pay off.

What a great time to be in the Outdoor Advertising industry. Unlike its legacy-media brethren, outdoor remains insulated from digital disruption -- in fact, it's been bolstered by it. Outdoor advertising has grown 77% over the past half-dozen years, with no end in sight to the good times. This comprehensive 25-page report examines a fascinating, growing $7.5 billion category that includes billboards, transit signs, and a plethora of ads in sports arenas, shopping malls, gas pumps, and even bathrooms.

Businesses have spent the past decade staking their digital claims and are now entering a new marketing phase: building the equivalent of SIMs villages. They're slowing down expenditures on things such as hosting, site design, and ad-management fees and have begun plowing billions into SEO, mobile media, and social media management. This 42-page report includes spending forecasts to 2020. It is the deepest dive you'll find anywhere on Digital Marketing Services (DMS) -- a category so big that it's spawned a cottage industry of 248,100 service businesses across the U.S.

Thanks in part to Donald Trump, media will enjoy an extra $357 million in political advertising this year beyond our initial estimates. Based on the first three months of 2016, we're adding 3.1% to our estimates, figuring that a record $11.7 billion will be spent on political advertising this year. This 21-page report recasts our 2016 Political Advertising estimates and shows which types of media -- and which states -- stand to benefit the most.

In every local market, dozens of companies are pressing SMBs to buy digital advertising. Some are making tens of thousands of dollars, some tens of millions. This 45-page report analyzes 2015 revenue performance from more than 10,000 local operations run by newspapers, radio, TV, yellow pages, cable systems and Internet pureplay companies.

How much are SMBs spending on digital marketing services? Why are so many media companies chasing this business? Is there any profit in it? Which categories are hot sellers? This report answers those questions and more

This 24-page report details our forecast for changes in local advertising for 2016. We foresee a 16.4% increase in local advertising – something others aren’t predicting – based on significant budget increases coming for digital advertising and political advertising. Newspapers, direct mail, directories and radio are all in for declines this year, while local magazines, cable, TV and online are on the rise. Digital advertising is forecast to grow at another raging two-digit rate – 36.4%. For the first time, digital media will account for half of all locally spent advertising, forming an X as it heads toward what we believe will be a two-thirds share before it levels off in 2019. The report includes seven charts and graphs, plus an appendix of digital ad-spending estimates by format (banners, email, video, etc.) for each of the 513 U.S. Digital Marketing Regions (DMRs).

Will 7-day-a-week newspapers disappear? Are media-born digital ad agencies a fad? The panel issued its clearest predictions on these questions and eight more in 2015, and we highlight them – with predictions on when events might come to pass – in this insightful 18-page report.

As the money-laden Presidential Election cycle begins its slow climb toward its peak − with all media on board for the ride − the upcoming twists, turns and inverted loops of 2016 are sure to thrill. Political advertising is forecast to hit a record $11.4 billion in 2016, 20% more than the last comparable Presidential Election year of 2012. But, that’s just part of the story. In reality, the games have already begun. Adding what will be spent on next year’s contests in 2015, political advertising still holds a whopping $16.5 billion. Our 27 page report includes 20 charts and graphics, plus an appendix of 2016 political ad spending forecasts by contest for each state and political ad spending by medium from 2013-2016.

We’re at a critical juncture in media history, one that is redefining the landscape so quickly that we’ve obviously reached a tipping point. We’ve surveyed 7,228 SMBs and it’s difficult to examine the marketing intentions of that many local businesses and not arrive at the conclusion that a tipping point has been reached. The pace of change is accelerating. Anything involving traditional media channels is now considered expensive, difficult and risky; anything involving digital is seen as inexpensive, easy and low-risk.

When it comes to automated buying and selling, the Internet reigns supreme. So it’s inevitable that advertising will also one day become automated. And while that day is not quite here, it’s coming rapidly. The programmatic-advertising iceberg showed its tip last year, as 4.7% of all locally placed digital advertising was done through these automated buying-and-selling networks. Although Publishers are skeptical it won’t halt the growth of programmatic advertising. This year the share will grow to 10%, which means that $5 billion of digital ad-buying at the local level will be handled by computerized bidding. This report details programmatic advertising and the flow of advertising dollars at the local level.

If you attended our conference in New York last month, you got a dose of what beacons may offer to local media. This memo expands on that topic. We’re issuing the memo because we think in-store beacons will eventually become ubiquitous and, combined with smart phones, are likely to thrust local marketing into yet another revolution. Hence, it’s a good time to read up on this topic.

Real estate agents and brokers, among the first to adapt to digital media 20 years ago, may have discovered the digital saturation point. In 2015, while other types of advertisers are increasing digital budgets, agents and brokers will be scaling back. Although a small amount (-2%) it indicates that they may have reached the optimal ratio of digital to non-digital expenditures. Our annual review of advertising and marketing trends takes a deep dive into how this category is changing over the next 5 years and how habits of millennials are creating a boom in real estate advertising.

If local advertising were a train, digital would be its locomotive, first-class passenger car and dining car. It continues to be responsible for nearly all growth in local advertising, barreling along at an accelerated rate of 40% last year and forecast rate of 42% this year. In this report, we’re examining digital advertising. We separate that into four basic formats: display, streaming, email and paid search. Display is further broken out into targeted and static display/ROS, and streaming is bro ken out between video and audio-only commercials.

In our fourth (and largest) survey of local ad-sales manager the digital divide is clear – 51% of digital media companies have at least one digital only AE on staff. Companies that employ digital-only sales reps — even one or two — tend to have far more digital revenue than those who don’t. There’s overwhelming evidence that a rep who sells two competing products always
winds up favoring one. And that could be bad news in both directions: For a media company focusing its traditional-media reps too much on digital sales ... or vice-versa.

Automotive is the second-largest advertising category, behind general merchandise stores, at $35.5 Billion. It’s a landmark year for digital advertising. For the first time, more than half of all advertising dollars will be spent on digital media.

Companies at the local level have begun spending vast amounts of money on the basic underlying services needed to support their digital marketing. Companies will spend over five times as much on digital marketing services than they will on digital advertising - costing them $501 billion this year.

This is a Client Memo for subscribers only. If you’ve been waiting for the real estate boom and a commensurate comeback in advertising, plan to wait a bit longer. The latest data now shows that the residential real estate boom is still little more than a few distant thunderclaps with spotty showers. In fact, home sales are likely to be down this year, and we’ve just made a downward adjustment to our forecast growth in real estate advertising – 7% higher this year compared with 17% in 2013.

This is a Client Memo for subscribers only! We wanted to give you a head’s up on some abrupt shifts in automotive advertising we’ve begun to notice. The good news is that auto advertising is up. By our projection, it will end up at 6.8% more than 2013. The bad news is, the longtime beneficiaries of automotive advertising – broadcast and print media – will experience exactly the opposite.

This year’s outlook on political advertising finds that more than $8 billion will be spent to influence voters across an estimated 30,000 local, state and national elections. Political advertising continues its growth jag, and the online portion seems poised to skyrocket. Our 16-page annual review includes 9 charts and graphics, plus an appendix of political ad spending by medium from 2005-2013, and forecasts to 2016.

The jobs picture has shifted radically from the time when employers gladly spent money to advertise openings. Our 2014 Recruitment Advertising Outlook details that shift. It lays out a scenario in which companies, while still spending $22 billion on advertising jobs, have begun ramping up their spending on their own advertising channels – like social media pages and their own websites. Online advertising is up nearly 19%, but expenditures on services is doubling.

The recession of 2008 initiated a jolt of media disruption that has forced widespread layoffs and even shutdowns. Consumers have cut usage radio, newspapers and magazines and yellow pages by 25% or more while increasing use of digital media by 65%. What’s in store over the next five years? This 41-page report is chock full of trending analysis for each medium. Find out who’s likely to thrives, and who merely survives.

After years of decline, Real Estate is finally on the rebound. It’s shaping up to be a $27.3 billion category, up nearly 10% from 2012. Our annual review of advertising and marketing trends takes a deep dive into how this category has been reshaped over the past 15 years. The big headlines: Spending on newspapers is no longer declining, spending on homes magazines is up 30%, and online ad spending – while up nearly 17% this year – is likely to begin flat-lining soon.

We have released our outlook for local digital advertising in the U.S. and Puerto Rico for 2014. The market numbers are accompanied by a memo describing what we're seeing ad midyear 2013. This memo is available to clients only and is not to be distributed publicly.

Wrenching changes in automotive advertising are forging a new landscape for local media. Broadcast media and newspapers are losing more ground, while online and direct mail are on the rise. Our annual report examines the underpinnings of those changes. It tracks historical shifts in automotive spending across each media type and issues forecasts for up to five years.

Having digital-only sales rep on staff lifts attitudes, increases understanding of digital products and increases digital revenues for traditional media companies. But competition is stiff to hire digital reps: Pureplay companies are offering 50% more base pay than traditional media companies. That’s the conclusion of our latest survey of 220 sales executives at radio, TV, newspaper, yellow pages and pureplay companies. Hiring of digital-only reps is back on the upswing, with 62% of media companies reporting that they have at least one on staff – up from 48% in 2011.

Annual Analysis: Benchmarking Local Online Media
Who's enjoying the biggest share of the $24 billion spent online by local businesses this year? This 50-page annual report includes 37 charts and graphs chronicling what's happening in local media's quest to conquer the digital frontier. It includes details not only revenues but also profitability for more than 6,000 Internet pureplay companies and traditional media digital ventures.

Wondering why so many companies are rushing to sell marketing services to SMBs? It’s because local advertisers have fallen deeply in love with promotions and “owned media.” Our latest report, “2013 Local Promotions Forecast,” details how advertisers are carving dollars from other budgets to invest in quick-reward marketing programs like discounts, coupons, contests, and loyalty programs. This year, local businesses are likely to spend a whopping 81% more on local promotions than they will on classic advertising – something that’s never happened before.

Banner ads and search engine advertising aren’t enough anymore. Small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) are snapping up a smorgasboard of services, from basic website hosting to SEO, social media and reputation management. This 17-page report takes a deep dive into the phenomenon of the Internet’s transformation from an advertising medium to an advertising utility.

In this memo to subscribers and clients, Gordon Borrell outlines our local online advertising is forecast for 2013 and lists the fastest-growing (and slowest) in digital sales so far this year. The memo details YTD digital advertising growth rates for 43 local media companies, as well as our forecast for online ad spending in 2013 by formats (video, banners, email, etc.). It also offers detail on our new Digital Marketing Regions (DMRs), with benchmarks based on the results of more than 1,600 companies to help clients determine their market potential. Two appendices and an Excel download include the full list of DMRs and the counties included in each of the 513 regions, plus the ad-spending levels.

Real Estate advertising will be a $23.7 billion category this year, down 16% from 2011. While virtually all media are suffering, expenditures on online media continue to grow, rising 15%. This year, 55% of all real estate advertising, or $13 billion, will be spent on online media. This 33-page report includes 24 charts and tables and is our annual outlook on the industry.

Co-op advertising has finally filtered into the digital media space to the tune of $1.7 billion in available dollars. Brand managers are offering programs for local retailers, subsidizing everything from banner ads to website development that help promote the brand. If you’re wondering how to tap into that lucrative stream or what small and medium businesses (SMBs) are doing with digital co-op, this is the report to read.

In our annual outlook, we estimate automotive advertising to hit $31 billion this year, about 14 percent of an increase over 2011. The biggest gainer? You guessed it, digital media. In fact, digital media will account for almost 90 percent of all automotive advertising growth this year as dealers and manufacturers drive more spending toward streaming video commercials, targeted social media ads and mobile. This 37-page report is our annual review of trends in both new and used car sales and the latest fluctuations in spending by manufacturers, dealers, dealer groups and private-party sellers.

Our 10th annual report documents offers benchmarking detail spanning more than 5,700 local media companies in the U.S. and Canada. Are yellow pages companies making the transition? How are Angie’s List, Groupon, Yelp and Craigslist and independent hyperlocal sites doing in the local online pureplay space? What should you be making in digital revenues if you’re a newspaper, cable system, TV station or radio station? Our 43-page report has it all – including two appendices listing 2011 and 2012 online ad spending for 210 markets.

This year will be the most expensive campaign year ever, at a whopping $9.8 billion, 40% higher than the last presidential campaign year. While other estimates are much lower, they fail to take into account , but about 13,000 state and local contests that will bring a bonanza of ad revenue for local media companies. Tallying the money spent on online media, direct mail, outdoor, radio and TV, 2012 political contests offer a big shot in the arm to media companies. The 20-page report shows “hotspot” markets across the U.S. and estimates market-by-market advertising levels for 210 localities and for each state.

There’s big change in the air for online recruitment advertising – a category that saw consistent double-digit growth for the past 15 years. With the economy still struggling against a straightjacket, there just aren’t that many jobs to advertise. And with so many candidates out there, recruiters barely need to advertise anyway. Basic media spending on recruitment advertising flattened out last year at $9.4 billion. We’re expecting that to fall 5.3 percent, to $8.9 billion this year. This 42-page annual report examines the recruitment landscape and offers deep detail on jobs and ad spending.

The rush is on to hire and train great AEs who can drive digital sales. But the big question is, how should they be paid, and how should multimedia sales staffs be organized? This 27-page report sheds light on what’s happening with the army of 81,000 local ad-sales reps in the U.S. as local media companies retool for the digital age. It includes 14 charts detailing the size of the various sales forces across traditional media and pureplay Internet companies, how many are “digital ready,” and their managers’ evaluations on their levels of effectiveness.

Local businesses have arrived en masse at the Social Media cocktail party. The sluggish economy has constricted their ad budgets, and posting messages on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter not only feels good, but also feels free. But it’s not. This report takes a deep dive into the attraction of social media to small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) and gauges their current levels of spending, forecast to double in 2012 and again in 2013.

Our latest report, “Budgeting for 2012: Local Online Advertising Forecasts and Key Growth Opportunities,” points to two amazing phenomenon. First, traditional media companies are gaining online share over pureplay Internet companies. And second, in a few short years, the vast majority of what we know as "online" will be served up on mobile devices. We are forecasting 18% growth next year as local online advertising goes from $15.7 billion to $18.5 billion in 2012. This report details the categories and formats pegged for growth, as well as individual market estimates.

Gain an understanding of the national results of the consumer and advertiser study. Receive valuable insights into consumer and advertising spending. Compare figures to your market to see how you compare to what's occurring across the US.

Main Street has gone “mobile,” adopting the latest new-media phenomenon at an alarming rate. Research indicates that half of all SMBs are hoping to jump on the mobile marketing bandwagon this year, driving combined spending on mobile advertising and promotions (including the ever-popular “deals”) over $1.2 billion this year. This 26-page report details the burst of interest by local businesses in using mobile devices to lure customers with proximity advertising, coupons and SMS offers. It offers 27 charts that show current and forecast trends for household penetration of mobile devices (including smartphones and tablets) and rich detail on local-business spending on mobile advertising and promotions.

Automotive advertising is finally on the rebound. Our annual look at this important ad segment pegs it at $22.6 billion this year, running about 7 percent ahead of last year. Our 2011 Local Automotive Advertising Outlook examines trends in new-car sales (down), used-car sales (up) and the underlying mechanics causing dealers to shift their spending toward channels like online media and cinema advertising. The report, which includes 20 charts and graphs, dives deeper into the online phenomenon, showing that auto dealers are the most aggressive local advertisers on the web, and that they’re likely to carry that mentality over to mobile media.

The downturn in the housing industry has forged deep changes in the way real estate professionals spend their ad dollars. Market indices point to a slow recovery in home sales, but the advertising recovery has already begun. Expenditures are forecast to increase 8 percent this year, to $21.8 billion. The most-favored medium is online, where agents, brokers, builders and mortgage lenders will plow $8.9 billion. That makes real estate the second-largest online advertising category. Our 56-page annual outlook examines housing trends, shifts in advertising between traditional print, online, broadcast and other channels, and takes a deep dive into what agents are doing – and thinking – about online marketing.

Despite the dearth of available jobs, recruitment marketing continues to grow – up an estimated 5.8% this year for all marketing expenditures and up 18.6% for online advertising. More than any other advertising category, recruitment has undergone the greatest transformation. Human resources professionals last year spent 57% of their advertising budgets on online media, principally to buy job postings or to access resume databases. That’s the largest share devoted to online for any advertising category. This report, “2011 Online Recruitment Marketing Outlook: Are the Jobs Ever Coming Back?,” represents our annual analysis of this important segment.

Our 9th annual, "Benchmarking Local Online Media: 2010 Survey," is out, delivering eye-popping insights on local online media revenues. Sites that focus on a particular category of content have begun to dominate the landscape, and many local operations that are the most successful are generating millions of dollars by selling a myriad of products beyond just banners. This industry paper analyzes revenue from nearly 4,600 local interactive operations and provides appendices listing market-by-market online ad spending by format, including spending on local coupons.

Local media companies looking for greener pastures have turned to Main Street shops, hoping to find gold. In our survey of 2,872 small and medium size businesses (SMBs), we found that they plan to increase their ad budgets 4.5% this year, but their online budgets 29%. The biggest gainers: email and social media advertising, including spending on their own websites. While 86% of SMBs reported having a website last year, that’s expected to go to 91% in 2011 – meaning there are very few left without a web presence.

Everybody’s trying to reach a local audience these days, but our new report finds that hyperlocal might also mean hypersmall. The big attraction to “local” comes from the fact that local websites hold more value because their site visitors make the vast majority household purchases within a few miles of their homes. Our new report digs into a few disturbing aspects of local site traffic, including data that show that the unique visitor-to-actual-people ratio is nearly 4 to 1.

After years of unfulfilled promise, local ad networks have reached maturity. Stories of CPMs doubling and large “spot” buys mean that the floodgates have begun opening for networks that offer targeted banners down to local websites. It may mean a bonanza for local media managers, many of whom operate sites with half their inventory unsold. The biggest beneficiaries are likely to be newspaper, TV and yellow pages websites, which control 80% of all local banner advertising, as well as the ad networks themselves.

Since 2001, Borrell Associates has been a pioneer in scrutinizing local media and the impact of disruptive technology on its ad revenues. In 2003, its landmark report on the subject, done in conjunction with then Harvard Assistant Professor Clark Gilbert, a protégé of Clay Christensen, was released. The report was a major wake-up call to the country’s local media giants. A 2007, condensed reprint of “Disruptive Technology and Local Media” is available for free.

Retail sales will dip this year, but that hasn’t stopped retailers from plowing more money into marketing. Retail ad expenditures are up 9% and their promotions spend is up 16.6%. This 60-page report, "U.S. Retailing: Sales, Marketing and the Move to Online," details game-changing shifts. While traditional advertising is forecast to increase 5% over the next five years, promotions and non-ad marketing will increase at five times that rate. And the biggest gainer of all, of course, will be interactive marketing. The report includes an appendix that details online and offline marketing expenditure trends for 34 individual business categories.

The power of proximity-based, or location-based, advertising poses radical challenges to the mass media model of aggregating local audiences and selling them to local advertisers. Our latest report, “Proximity-Based Marketing: Mobile Devices Untether Advertising from Media,” examines the latest in a 15-page industry paper that gauges mobile proximity-based advertising at $200 million this year, swelling to $760 million in 2011 and springing to $6 billion by 2015.

Mobile apps are all the rage. More than a half-million apps are downloaded every single hour, and the average smartphone user has 22. But the future is cloudy for those trying to tackle the mobile universe via an app. Research shows that after six months, only one of those original 22 apps is still in use. On top of that, a debate is raging as to whether apps will survive a more sophisticated mobile browser fueled by HTML5.

Social networks are increasing their ad revenues at a tremendous pace and before long it could take a toll on ad spending at local media Web sites. In this latest paper, we track the advertising and promotion spending for social networking as well the new rules of marketing under this new “anti-mass” media. Included in the paper is the latest local and national ad and promotions spending projections for social networks by DMA.

Mobile marketing is exploding, fueled by an installed consumer base of 234 million cell phone users and the quick uptake of smart phones, now in the hands of nearly one-third of consumers. The implications at the local level are enormous. This report examines mobile marketing, breaking down the difference between mobile advertising and mobile promotions, and examines what appears to be the first “killer app” for mobile: couponing. It is the first – and a scene-setter – in a series of reports we will publish this year on the local mobile marketing phenomenon.

It’s an “even” year, which means another uptick in political advertising. That’s good news for broadcasters – where most of political advertising winds up – and good news for just about everybody else, too, because of a recent Supreme Court ruling that should open the door to about $400 million more political ad spending this year. A decade-long uptick in political spending has forced a crooked smile on our forecast. It starts at $4.2 billion this year and zig-zags up to $41 billion in the 2012 presidential election year. Online is still barely 1% of all political advertising, just $44 million this year. Our 24-page report includes 12 charts and an appendix estimating political ad spending in each of the 210 DMAs.

Has the mighty real estate advertising category peaked out for online media? Our "2010 Real Estate Outlook" describes major trends in spending by agents, brokers, apartment owners and mortgage lenders and issues our forecast for this year. This ad category declined 20% last year, from $24.4 billion to $19.6 billion. We're forecasting a mild bounce back in 2010 at 3% growth. Our annual assessment of this important category describes the situation and offers 20 charts and graphs detailing how real estate ad dollars are shifting. It also includes appendices offering detailed data on U.S. ad spending in this category, as well as a market-by-market estimates of national and local spending for 210 cities. Don't forget to sign up for the Webinar to discuss this report on Thursday, 2/4, 2pm to 3pm ET for just $75 (free for subscribers).

Coupon use is up an amazing 36% over last year, but retailers are beginning to increase their use of the Internet as a distribution channel, particularly for higher-priced items. While the Internet still accounts for less than 5% of all coupon redemptions, Internet coupons represent 20% of the value of those redemptions. Our latest research quantifies why so many media companies are redoubling their efforts on launching coupon and shopping Web sites and mobile applications.

‘Tis the season for giving, and in that spirit Borrell Associates is pleased to make our 2010 mobile ad-spending estimates for more than 200 local markets our holiday gift to you – along with a little analysis as to what to expect next year. It’s free

Our latest report details the decline in online recruitment advertising this year, but we forecast a 20% increase for 2010. This report, "Recruitment Advertising Outlook 2010: A Jobless Recovery," comes with an Appendix that details local online ad spending projections by online ad formats (display, paid search, e-mail and video) in over 900 local markets.

Our new report, "Auto Advertising Outlook 2010: Running on Empty," brings good news for online advertising in 2010. Meanwhile, the rack publications and yellow pages will continue taking it on the chin. Overall, we expect the total U.S. ad spend for new cars to rise to $19.2 billion from the low of $18.4 billion in 2009.

It may be a horrible year for advertising overall, but not for local online – and certainly not for some companies seeing double- and even triple-digit growth for local operations. Local online advertising is growing at a 12% clip this year, and we’ve taken a look at 2010 and expect further growth. This report forecasts 2010 local online sales to hit $14.9 billion, or 5% higher than where we’re expecting things to end up this year. While mobile is a hot topic, we’re projecting it to be a relatively small category locally – only $500 million – in 2010.

While everyone’s been writing the obituary for the newspaper industry, our numbers are showing something entirely different. We’re expecting U.S. newspapers to see a decline in 2009, then a mild rebound over the next five years. Our latest projections call for a 2.4% increase in newspaper advertising in 2010, and low single-digit increases for several more years. Download our free memo describing our projections. We also offer a market-by-market estimate for newspaper spending in 2009 and 2014 for $295.

In our latest research and analysis paper we discover the local search-advertising marketplace may be headed for a shakeout where less-sophisticated affiliates and resellers of search advertising could see their business models collapse and their advertisers flee. Scooping up the business will be savvy affiliates and resellers who are able to optimize SEM performance through software tools and reporting that show actual ROI to advertisers.

The Internet has put another print medium in its crosshairs: direct mail. The popularity of e-mail marketing is set to skyrocket as a result. This report details our forecast for a dramatic 39% drop in direct mail and corresponding rise in e-mail advertising – which was already at $12.1 billion last year. E-mail, in fact, quietly became the No. 1 interactive advertising format last year, surpassing banners and search advertising.

Last year $12.6 billion was spent in online advertising by local advertisers. Sales were dominated by pure-play Internet companies with no ties to legacy media However, for the first time since we began tracking local shares in 2001, pure-play companies lost ground. It’s all outlined here in our 7th annual revenue survey of over 6,000 local Web sites.

2009 will be the first in many in which some components of interactive advertising show little or no growth, or may even decline. The changes foreseen are not cyclical, and show no sign of improving quickly, irrespective of upward movement in the nation’s economy.

The oldest newspaper, radio, TV and “city.com” Web sites turned 14 years old this year. In that short time span they have evolved from being interesting experiments to become their parent organizations’ center of attention and financial saviors. Some of them now generate millions in revenue and significant profits, and have high potential for continued growth – begging the question of just how much these local Web sites might be worth.

Print yellow page directories face the most uncertain future of all media. We’re estimating that the yellow pages industry will lose $39% of its in annual revenue over the next five years, amounting to a loss of $5 billion in annual revenue by 2013. Meanwhile, there is a simultaneous increase in the industry’s “addressable market” of search engine advertising and local online video, giving publishers a larger cache of advertising products to sell. Video shows the most promise, growing from a $1.4 billion category this year to $7.6 billion in 2013.

The 2008 World Association of Newspapers revenue benchmarking survey includes data from newspapers in all major regions of the globe. It covers print and online revenues, the key verticals, and trends over the past three years. This unique resource is a special benefit provided to our subscribers. It is for internal use only and is not to be circulated outside your organization.

Local media Web sites are sharing in the $13.1b local online ad revenue pie this year, but Internet pure-plays continue to gobble up the most. While newspaper sites have gone on the attack, we see some dramatic share grabs from other media online.

In 2007, businesses spent $806 billion to get the word out about their products, services and companies. Most of it, $483 billion went toward promotions – non-advertising marketing
expenses that range from discounts, contests, coupons, rebates and sponsorships to white papers, public relations and viral marketing campaigns.

With a third of the working population reaching retirement age over the next decade we expect a huge demand to fill all types of jobs.
Over the next four years, we expect total recruitment spending to increase 25%, from $58 billion in 2008 to $73 billion in 2012. The prime beneficiary will be online media. Online spending will increase 23.5% to a record high of over $11 billion.

This complete U.S. WebAudit™ is our FINAL estimate for 2007 and supersedes all others. This report gives you essential online ad spending data for the whole country. We can configure a WebAudit™ for any market by DMA, city or county(ies).

The growth of online media buying by local businesses -- particularly for paid search, directories and video -- has outstripped our expectations and has driven our estimates significantly higher for 2008.

Real estate advertising retrenched in 2007. While this $11 billion advertising category shows signs of contraction, the interesting story is what’s happening to the internal components. Our report assesses both current trends and future patterns of how agents and brokers will spend on traditional advertising, as well as what they’re investing in their own Web sites right now.

Six years ago publishers were willing to accept the proposition that “information wants to be free.” Today, fueled by the dot-bomb debacle and new guidelines from the Audit Bureau of Circulations, publishers appear more eager to embrace the notion that “information providers want to be paid.” This turnaround threatens to dilute the accomplishments of a remarkable period when a $60 billion, 395-year-old industry reared up on its hind legs and began to achieve the unthinkable: It recognized a disruptive technology early, accepted an unconventional business model, and seized a market position.