Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj

If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

How many times must we go through the same motions surrounding the
various bailout/solvency/reform issues in Greece? Granted, things are
just slightly different each time, but the aspects of "seemingly urgent
decisions required" as well as "certain deadlines needing to be hit" or
else face the consequences of "almost certain Greek default and probable
exit from the Eurozone" feel like they've been present in each
iteration of the broader situation that we refer to as "Greek Drama."

After all the sturm and drang of the most recent installment of
Greece bailout drama, and even after several Eurozone officials said
today in several different ways that said drama was resolved, we now
have several other Eurozone officials saying that, while the drama is
resolved, it actually, possibly, maybe isn't totally and completely
resolved as we thought, and that now the real date by which the world
can expect the next, dare we say, "resolution," is NEXT WEDNESDAY!

Today's big meeting was a Eurogroup get together, which includes
finance ministers from member stats as well as Eurogroup officials
including president Jean-Claude Juncker. Here's what he had to say late
Thursday.

To paraphrase: "sorry folks, not quite there,
but if Greece gives us some assurances, then we're good. Oh, and the
private sector haircuts have to be agreed-upon, but we're pretty
confident that will work out fine, and then we'll meet back up here
next Wednesday to see if we can ink this damn deal." Admittedly those
were my words as I heard them in my head whilst reading Juncker's wires.

To reiterate a previous stance we've taken. We only pay attention to
this stuff because markets seem to be paying some degree of attention
to it, and we acknowledge, respect, and understand that savvy market
participants react to Greek headlines only because other market
participants react to it, but very likely are just as weary of this
frustratingly repetitive farce as most of the rest of us are. Swim
against the wave or ride it until the tide turns, easier to ride the
wave for now, as odious as that may be.

Speaking of tides turning, bond markets have done much by way of bouncing back so far this morning and in the overnight session. 10's are back down to 1.975 and March coupon Fannie 3.5's are set to open 5 ticks higher at 103-15. Stocks shot lower with similar determination as the S&P is off almost 15 points at the moment. It all just looks like a broad-based unwinding of whatever optimism was created by Greece's negotiations. Are we doomed to relive all of this next week? Anyone seen Punxsutawney Phil?

Data today includes the week's headliner from a domestic economic
perspective in the form of International Trade at 8:30am, expected to
show just a slightly bigger deficit than last month's -47.8 bln,
(forecast: -48.3 bln). Then there's Reuters/U.Michigan Consumer
Sentiment at 9:55am, seen at 74.0 vs last month's 75.0. Bernanke speaks
at 12:30 on housing and FOMC voter Pianalto on the same topic at 2pm.

Period

Unit

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, February 06

No Significant
Scheduled Economic Data

Tuesday, February 07

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

--

32.0

--

15:00

Consumer credit

Dec

bl

19.31

7.2

20.37

Wednesday, February 08

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

810.0

753.3

07:00

Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

7.5

-2.9

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

181.9

181.7

07:00

Mortgage refinance
index

w/e

--

4500.7

4113.8

07:00

Refinancing: change

w/e

%

9.4

-3.6

07:00

MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

0.1

-1.7

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

4.05

4.09

13:00

10-yr Note Auction

--

bl

--

24.0

--

Thursday, February 09

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

358

370

367

08:30

Continued jobless
claims

w/e

ml

3.515

3.500

3.437

10:00

Wholesale inventories
mm

Dec

%

+1.0

0.4

0.1

10:00

Wholesale sales mm

Dec

%

+1.3

0.5

0.6

13:00

30-Yr Bond Auction

--

bl

--

16.0

--

Friday, February 10

08:30

International trade mm
$

Dec

bl

--

-48.3

-47.8

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Feb

--

--

74.0

75.0

09:55

U Mich conditions

Feb

--

--

84.2

84.2

09:55

U.Mich expectation

Feb

--

--

69.1

69.1

14:00

Federal budget, $

Jan

bl

--

-50.0

-85.97

About the Author

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.
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