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When does the dollar meltage matter?

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Good morning and welcome back to the Minyan track. After a long week of flow and a few days of snow, we are once again ready for the Minxy big show. The late Friday test had Hoofy real stressed but when push came to shove, he could still beat his chest. "Despite all the fright and Boo's late week bite, we've still held support--we're still poised for flight." Will the bears push on through to the south Minyan zoo? Or was that all she wrote as the bulls charge anew? It's five kickin' new sessions of Minyan obsession so let's make 'em count and leave an impression!

We power up the buttercup to find the last week's dynamic in full force. The S&P (1060) and NDX (1400) are tickling either side of support, the dollar is getting spanked again (this is getting kinky), gold is bold, Europe (and Asia) is (was) slack, traders are anxiously fingering their triggers and all eyes are on Elmer. Indeed, the bespeckled Fed front man will take center stage tomorrow and discuss his (much debated) commitment issues. Will he stay true "for the foreseeable future" or are his (four) eyes starting to wander? The world awaits that answer with bated breath.

There's not much to add that we haven't already addressed. There is a marked dichotomy between those who feel that, after this healthy retest, the breakout will suck in anxious money and carry us to year end highs. The smaller (and more humbled) crowd is clinging to the notion that the good news is baked into the market, traders are effectively trapped and, once the ride begins to slide, the sellers will motivate lower. That's pretty much it in a nutshell, and the battle lines have been drawn as we eyeball baby new year.

Before we pull up our sleeves and dive into the muck, I would like to announce we'll be kicking off a new auction tomorrow. In the interest of good will and with the hopes of raising money for the kids, Minyanville will be auctioning off a spot at the December 17th Minyanville Holiday dinner. The winner (and a guest) will join the Minyanville professors, Mike Santoli, the critters and the entire staff of Minyanville for a night of festive cheer. With the net proceeds benefiting the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, everyone will walk away with a smile!

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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