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The ongoing realignment of Turkey in international policy, following the Syrian war and tensions with its traditional partners, is boosting the expansion of its domestic defence industry. Traditionally supplied by its Western allies, Turkey wants to reduce its dependence on foreign arms.

During Turkey’s cross-border military offensive to expel Kurdish forces from the Syrian district of Afrin, the German government faced protests for Turkey’s use of German tanks. There was a similar controversy in Italy, but on a much smaller scale. The attack helicopters used in Afrin, called domestically produced by Turkish media, were described in the Italian press as Italian made A129 Mongoose aircraft, briefly moving the spotlight onto the intense cooperation of the Italian and Turkish defence industries.

In fact, the T129 Atak is both the crown jewel of the Turkish defence industry and is the best example of how it optimises the partnership with Western industry. Based on the time-tested Italian A129, the Atak was developed in close collaboration by Leonardo helicopters and Turkish Aeronautics Industries (TAI), resulting in a new, more powerful model built around the specific needs of the Turkish armed forces.

“The T129 Atak is a very different helicopter from the Mongoose,” a former Italian Army helicopter pilot told Ahval. “The two engines have more than double the power. They provide more lift and higher speed, but this implies completely different mechanics and a stronger airframe. The bigger payload and the more advanced avionics of Turkish production allow a wider range of missions, in line with the demands of the complex environment where the Turkish Army operates.”

The model of cooperation of the T129 project is typical of the way Turkish defence industry is growing, projecting Turkey onto international markets.

“After bringing the armed forces under political control, the government began an ambitious programme of modernisation with the stated goal of creating a domestic defence industry. The question became quickly central in the electoral and political rhetoric, well resumed with the catchphrase ‘milli tank, milli uydu, milli uçak,’ ‘a national tank, a national satellite, a national plane,’” said Federico Donelli, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at University of Genoa.

It is a topic that resonates deeply with the Turkish public: “The lack of a national military industry was considered one of the causes of the historical defeats and humiliations suffered by the Ottoman Empire. Its establishment was seen as a necessary condition for rehabilitation and resurgence, as well as for the independence and the nation’s very survival.”

However, the times of fully independent national defence industries are over. The complexity and funding required for modern weapons systems require and encourage multinational projects.

The emphasis on national production, exciting for the domestic audience, is thus misleading but it would be equally wrong to see the joint ventures as mere acquisitions of know-how.

“If it’s true that there is a significant technology transfer from Italian companies, they take advantage of the cooperation with a young and vibrant military industry, with orders worth billions of dollars,” Donelli said. “Turkey’s geopolitical centrality can open the doors of new markets to Turkish - Italian partners, especially in Africa.”

Africa and Asia are the new theatres where Italy, traditionally heavily involved in peacekeeping and NATO missions, is deploying its military, as an integral part of Italian foreign policy. One of these missions is the deployment of an Italian air defence missile battery in Kahramanmaraş to protect the Turkey’s southern border, after U.S. and German units were pulled out.

“Despite the mission being part of the normal rotation within NATO, the Italian choice to be part of it while Europe was extremely critical of Turkey was surely positive for bilateral ties,” said Donelli.

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The mission became necessary after the war in Syria exposed serious shortcomings in Turkish air defences. Maybe not by chance, the weapon system showcased in that mission, the French-Italian SAMP-T, was later chosen for a joint venture to give Turkey an indigenous air defence missile.

This new venture is the latest in an impressive list of joint projects: besides the attack helicopter, the Italian holding Leonardo is cooperating with Turkish companies to provide maritime patrol aircraft for the project MELTEM-III and the long-range air surveillance radar Selex RAT-31DL. Its C27J Spartan is a contestant in the bid for a tactical transport airplane while other companies provide components and software for weapon systems. The ubiquitous Oto Melara 76/62 cannon will arm the MILGEM frigates.

Unlike Germany, which imposes tight conditions to the use of Leopard 2A4 tanks supplied to Turkey, Italy is uninhibited about the use its partners make of its military hardware.

But Italy is only one of the many NATO or Western-aligned partners of the Turkish defence industry. Besides the T129 Atak, Turkey locally produces helicopters like the U.S.-designed Sikorsky UH60 Blackhawk and the Eurocopter Cougar. Turkey is a partner for the multinational A400 strategic transport airplane and the F35 Joint Strike Fighter. The Turkish defence industry is successfully exporting armoured and combat vehicles like the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Kirpi, the lightly armoured Cobra and Akrep, developed with parts from the U.S. Humvee and the British Land Rover respectively. Together with Spanish shipbuilder Navantia Turkey is building its first amphibious assault ship, while the tank Altay has been designed with Korean Hyundai Rotem.

The peculiar case of Turkey’s uncompleted purchase of the Russian S400 air defence missile system could have a very specific meaning in this context.

Cooperation with Turkish companies has quickly become vital for the European industry. A recent agreement with UK BAE Systems will produce the first indigenous fighter jet: the TFX project has been called a lifeline to the British military air industry.

Paradoxically, the building of the strong and independent indigenous defence industry, vaunted as a blow to foreign powers trying to influence Turkey’s policy, is ending up reinforcing Turkey’s integration with the Western allies.

“So far, none of these projects could be produced without vital patents and parts from international suppliers, whose green light is also needed to export to third countries,” said Donelli. But he is nevertheless cautious about any supposed leverage these ties could give. “Turkey has quickly diversified its partners, gaining more leverage over them than supplying countries could have on its policy. When European countries criticised Turkish crackdowns or touched sensitive spots like the Kurdish question or the Armenian claims, Ankara showed no hesitation to suspend or even cancel altogether defence contracts and orders.”

This is a lesson well understood in Europe. Diplomatic tensions with Germany have not stopped the MILDEN submarine building programme. Even in the middle of the current diplomatic row over Kurdish forces and Syria, Turkey and France held a series of successful meetings to increase their trade exchange to 20 billions euros.

The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Ahval.

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In February of this year, a month before the elections that changed the Italian political landscape, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Italy. In a rare interview, he praised relations with Italy as Turkey’s third biggest commercial partner and vowed to further increase the trade volume.

According to Italian media, Erdoğan was later disappointed by the coldness of officials during the visit. Both President Sergio Mattarella and incumbent Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni had asked him to end Turkey’s state of emergency and to respect human rights.

In contrast, Erdoğan’s meeting with Italian businessmen was very successful. Economic exchanges between the two countries are flourishing despite the souring of Turkey’s relations with the European Union and many European countries.

It was clear that Italy’s policy towards Turkey is guided by interest in business, while official calls to respect democratic values amount to little more than lip service.

“Italian companies keep investing in Turkey because of its steadily expanding market, whose 2018 growth is still expected to be between 4 and 5 percent, and its political stability, unchanged despite the authoritarian turn,” explained Federico Donelli, postdoctoral research fellow at University of Genoa. “Turkey is still the safest market for investors in the region.”

While overall foreign direct investment in Turkey decreased by 18.8 percent in 2017, investment from Italy increased by 42.5 percent, well above the 28.1 percent increase from the EU as a whole.

Italian companies with their Turkish partners are playing a leading role in mega-projects, a pillar of so-called “Erdoganomics.”

The Astaldi group has the lion share: besides being the main contractor for the third bridge over the Bosporus, it built and manages the Gebze-Izmir highway, including the bridge over the bay of Izmit, and it is building the Etlik mega-hospital in Ankara.

Impregilo is building the Çetin hydroelectric plant in Siirt and the health campus in Gaziantep. Italferr participated in the Eurasia tunnel construction.

But the core of Italian business in Turkey is less visible than the spectacular megaprojects.

“A peculiar complementarity of the two countries’ economies draws them to each other: both Italy’s and Turkey’s industrial landscapes are made of a few big, formerly state-owned groups, and a backbone of small, mainly family owned businesses,” Donelli said. “In Turkey, these were the real engine of the economic boom.”

Italian big groups working in megaprojects and small companies opening factories in Turkey share a common goal. “Turkey is trying to play a stronger role on the global market of large infrastructures in Middle East, but especially in Africa. Joint ventures with Italian companies benefit both sides,” Donelli said. “But the Turkish market is also a ‘gate to the East’ for Italian small businesses,” which can acquire international dimension with small investments in a friendly market not dissimilar from their own.

It would appear a win-win situation for entrepreneurs from both countries, but the erosion of Turkish democracy could change the context.

“Megaprojects like Istanbul’s third airport or the Istanbul Canal have both economic and propaganda value,” Donelli said, beyond the obvious importance of such infrastructure for the country. “From the economic point of view, investments in infrastructure ensures employment of a large workforce and attracts new foreign investors.”

But the political value of megaprojects has an even larger impact. “Government tenders favour big construction conglomerates like Limak, Kalyon and others, close to both the ruling AKP and the president’s family. Thus these large projects, described as having zero cost for the state and as a boost to national pride, reward two pillars of Erdoğan’s consent: businessmen and poorest segments of the society.”

The Italian role in Turkey’s economy supports the very same government that Italian leaders call to respect the rule of law and democratic principles. The matter is not trivial: as a candidate to EU accession, Turkey agreed to respect those principles, abandoned during Erdoğan’s ascent to presidency, the renewed conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and in the aftermath of the attempted coup

However unlikely Turkey’s joining the EU might seem, it preserves the special relationship of Turkey with Italy and the EU.

Donald Sassoon, historian at Queen Mary University of London is sceptical:

“The chances of Turkey joining the EU in the foreseeable future are zero. So it will be business as usual with the addition of comments on human rights which Erdoğan could use to show that the EU is anti-Turkish while EU countries could use such comments to show that they have principles” he told Ahval.

It will not be easy. Erdoğan has said he will ask the EU to honour its immigration deal with Turkey and pay 3 billion euros owed to keep refugees out of western Europe.

Ironically, it is immigration from North Africa that could affect Turkey’s friendship with Italy.

After a campaign marked by the theme of immigration being an Islamic invasion, Italian elections saw the victory of the populist Five Star Movement and the success of the anti-immigration Northern League, whose leader Matteo Salvini will probably be the next prime minister.

“The Northern League has always been on an actual propaganda crusade against Turkey, marked by ideological hostility loaded with racism and viscerally anti-Islamic,” said Carlo Pallard, analyst of Turkey’s politics and PhD candidate at the University of Turin. “But there are always differences between words and facts. It is interesting that the league’s leadership has excellent relations with a Turkic country like Azerbaijan. The league’s Turcophobia has always been selective, negotiable after all.”

Sassoon does not think that Italy’s relations with Turkey will change. “It is perfectly possible to be Islamophobic at home and ‘friendly’ with Islamic governments elsewhere. In Hungary where Islamophobia is greater than in Italy, relations between Orbàn’s government and Erdoğan are fine. I do not see any reason why matters would change in Turkish-Italian relations even with Salvini as prime minister,” Sassoon said.

The Five Star Movement position is less clear. “They have denounced the immigration deal and the erosion of rule of law in Turkey,” said Pallard, “but they are not prejudicially against Turkey.”

Italy seems likely to remain the last major EU country supporting Turkey’s accession, in spite of Ankara’s constant EU-bashing and the ever-worsening repression of civil society. “If its policy was more coherent and coordinated with the union, Italy could be a mediator between Turkey and EU, to try to alleviate its Anatolian neighbour’s anti-democratic drift,” Donelli said.

Sassoon is less optimistic: “The EU can do nothing for the rule of law in Turkey. It is barely able to do much over Hungary and Poland trying to control the judiciary and the media, even though both are major recipients of EU funds. So Erdoğan can sleep soundly,” he said.

Whatever leverage Italy or EU could have, it seems to have been sacrificed to business centred relations. But alarming signs that Turkey’s economy is actually faltering; rating agency downgrades and a new slide of the lira could undermine such an approach. Moreover, the increasing unpopularity of Erdoğan in Italy could push populist parties, always sensitive to their electorate’s mood, to adopt tougher policies.

“Both Turkey and the EU understand that they need good relations for economic and security reasons, the relationship is simply too valuable to disregard,” said Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey expert at St. Lawrence University.

“The problem is that Erdoğan is both too ambitious and too disdainful of basic norms of rule of law and of diplomacy to make a healthy relationship possible. Turning a blind eye to Turkey's abuses at home won't change its disruptive tactics in international relations. Normalisation is unlikely to occur under these circumstances.”