Whitney Tilson ‘Why We Might Buy Even More Netflix’ and Why Were Still Not Crazy Part III

November 26, 2011 at 5:41 pmby

From Whitney Tilson:

Down almost $30 in three weeks, Netflix is pretty close to the point where we’ll add to our position. Here’s an article in Barron’s today in which I’m quoted:

Netflix, the video-rental and online pioneer, is loved by many, including yours truly, for its little red envelopes in the mail containing movies great and obscure, and for its trove of films you can watch over the Internet.

But lately it has also become “the BP of 2011,” says Whitney Tilson, head of hedge-fund firm T2 Partners, referring to the petroleum giant that poisoned the Gulf of Mexico last year.

Netflix (ticker: (NFLX) is toxic.

…Tilson thinks that Wall Street is too negative. “There’s so much noise and there are so many moving pieces” at this point, Tilson tells me. “Our bet is, even though they’ll lose money the next couple of quarters, people will be surprised at how resilient the subscriber base turns out to be,” says Tilson.

…Not only does Tilson believe that the stock could easily double, he thinks downside may be “capped” because Netflix is more than ever an attractive buyout target, given how cheap it’s gotten.

…Still, he says, a Netflix bet is “not for the faint of heart” and involves “a wide range of outcomes.”

While Tilson concedes that any hint that the subscriber growth is going south would hurt the stock, “If we’re right on the upside, then there’s a scenario here where Netflix is the first mover in what turns out to be an enormous and valuable space, worldwide, over time.”