8.19am: Welcome to Middle East Live. Today a ceremony takes place to mark the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and voting is under way on day two Egypt's second round of elections, but the place to watch continues to be Syria.

The commander of our regiment, Brigadier General Ramadan Ramadan, usually stayed behind the lines. But this time he stood in front of the whole brigade. He said, "Use heavy shooting. Nobody will ask you to explain." Normally we are supposed to save bullets, but this time he said, "Use as many bullets as you want." And when somebody asked what we were supposed to shoot at, he said, "At anything in front of you." About 40 protesters were killed that day.

A defector filmed in this HRW video said troops were told to shoot or be shot, even though the protesters were peaceful.

Intervention in Syria would be a demanding mission carrying significant risks ... Yet these risks suggest that intervention should be carefully considered, not avoided altogether. Without external intercession, the violence in Syria is likely to escalate, with destabilizing consequences for its neighbours, particularly Lebanon and Iraq.

We estimate that the number [of dead] is way higher than [the number given by the UN] ... because it is so hard to get the final number of casualties in Syria ... mainly because there are so many young men and women who have disappeared. Their families don't know where they are; whether they are arrested or dead .... Sometimes they find those people in mass graves.

9.32am: Martin Chulov in Baghdad to cover the ceremony to mark the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. He writes:

Half an hour away from a small and simple flag folding ceremony to mark the end of almost nine years of war in Iraq. All troops will leave by Sunday, earlier than scheduled because Washington decided there was no point keeping them here over Christmas.

There are 4,000 troops still in country today, but they will rapidly depart from two bases in the south in coming days. US Commanding General Lloyd Austin III will leave after the trooping of the colours, which is being held at a nondescript site near Baghdad airport.

The US is anxious to avoid any notion of triumphalism, or 'mission accomplished' slogans. Around 300 soldiers will witness the ceremonial end of the most costly and contentious war of modern times.

We are temporarily switching the headline of this blog to cover the ceremony.

9.47am: The Washington Post's Baghdad bureau chief, Liz Sly, is tweeting the end of US involvement in Iraq. Here are her most recent updates:

The date of the exact end of the #Iraq war was supposed 2 be secret till it happened, 4 security. But Obama disclosed it yesterday.

Panetta has landed in baghdad 4 the ceremony ending the USF-I mission in

Waiting 4 the casing of colors ceremony that will officially close the #Iraq war. The End is just hours away.

9.49am: The US flag is to be lowered in Baghdad just after 10am GMT (1pm local time) in a ceremony to mark the end of US military operations in Iraq, Paul Owen reports.

The ceremony will take place at Baghdad international airport. Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and General Lloyd Austin, the top US commander in Iraq, will all speak.

According to the New York Times, Pentagon officials said Panetta - who arrived in Baghdad this morning - would thank all US troops who have served in Iraq since 2003, and would praise them for "the remarkable progress we have seen here in Baghdad and across this country".

The NYT said Panetta was also expected to say that the US effort "helped the Iraqi people to cast tyranny aside and to offer hope for prosperity and peace to this country's future generations".

Earlier this week, during a trip to Afghanistan, Panetta said of Iraq:

We spilled a lot of blood there. But all of that has not been in vain. It's been to achieve a mission making that country sovereign and independent and able to govern and secure itself.

There are currently two US bases and about 4,000 US troops in Iraq. During the 2007 "surge" there were as many as 500 bases and 170,000 troops. All US troops are due to leave the country by the end of the year, and it is expected they will actually be out earlier than that. Over the coming days, the troops will leave the country in "orderly caravans and tightly scheduled flights", according to the Associated Press. Many will then remain in Kuwait for months.

Military leaders fear the withdrawal is "a bit premature for the still maturing Iraqi security forces", AP reports, but the US was unable to reach an agreement with the Iraqis on legal issues and troop immunity that would have allowed a small training and counter-terrrorism force to remain.

Politically, the withdrawal will allow Barack Obama to fulfill a crucial campaign promise as the 2012 presidential race continues to intensify.

In the Guardian today Martin Chulov talks to a member of the Awakening Council, the group supported and funded by the US in early 2007 to turn on al-Qaida. Like many of his former comrades, he now fears for his life as al-Qaida-linked groups continue to hunt him and Iraqi government support evaporates.

Simon Tisdall argues that the US withdrawal "marks the beginning of, and a possible spark for, the next stage of struggle. Iran's rulers understand this historic truth very well. And their view matters since, as many regional analysts believe, it was Tehran, not Washington, that "won" the war in Iraq ... Its interest, the opposite of Washington's, is to keep Iraq weak, dependent and submissive."

Not only does Iran have significant sway over the Shia political elite which holds the virtual monopoly of power in this country. But of all the rival power centres within Iran, it is the darkest of them that has the strongest stake in its neighbour. Members of Iraq's cabinet have beaten a well worn path to the door of Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds force, the external operations wing of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. The British embassy compounds in Tehran know him well. He ordered their sacking. The future partners of an independent Iraq are Iran and Turkey. The US comes a distant third.

The New York Times has also found 400 pages of secret interviews with Marines about the 2005 massacre by US Marines of Iraqi civilians in the town of Haditha. The documents "confirm much of what happened at Haditha, a Euphrates River town where Marines killed 24 Iraqis, including a 76-year-old man in a wheelchair, women and children, some just toddlers".

But world affairs editor John Simpson says the atmosphere in Iraq is more relaxed and self confident despite continuing violence.

10.03am: Both Sky News and al-Jazeera are carrying live pictures from the ceremony in Iraq. (The BBC is currently interviewing Eric Pickles.)

10.07am:Mina al-Oraibi, an Iraqi journalist living in London, tweets her thoughts on the ceremony:

US is declaring success in Iraq - yet until today the goal was never clarified. If goal was to remove WMDs that was achieved in the 1990s

If US goal was otherwise- to remove Saddam, that was achieved in 2003. If the goal was flourishing&prosperous democracy, hasnt been achieved

Can't help but get flashbacks of Bush's 'Mission Accomplished' fiasco of May 2003 - how much Iraq, the US & the world has changed since

10.11am: The ceremony is under way with saluting and a military band.

Martin Chulov in Baghdad notes the absence of triumphalism. He describes the ceremony as "simple and low key".

10.18am: US ambassador to Iraq James Franklin Jeffrey opens the ceremony. He says the US is looking forward to a Iraq that is "safe, secure and self reliant".

Panetta opens his speech with a quote from Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg address: "The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here".

10.33am: US defence secretary Leon Panetta paid tribute to the troops who fought in Iraq and claimed there had been "remarkable progress" in the country. He said:

You came to this land between the rivers, again, again and again. You did now know that you would return to your loved ones. You will leave with great pride, secure in knowing that your sacrifice has helped the Iraqi people begin a new sacrifice free from tyranny.

Panetta claimed much had been achieved since the "darkest days" of 2006 when sectarian violence was "skyrocketing". He said: "Today some five years later, after a great deal of blood has been spilled by both Iraqis and Americans, the mission of an Iraq that could govern itself has become real."

He claimed lives had not been lost in vain. "They gave birth to an independent, free and sovereign Iraq," Panetta said.

Panetta predicted that Iraq would be "tested" by terrorism, economic challenges and the demands of democracy. But said the US would be on hand to help Iraq with a "significant diplomatic presence". He added:

We will continue to have a robust and enduring presence across the Middle East. We are not about to turn our backs on all that has been sacrificed.

State department official Frederic Hof told Congress on Wednesday that Assad's repression may allow him to hang on to power but only for a short time. And, he urged the Syrian opposition to prepare for the day when it takes control of the state in order to prevent chaos and sectarian conflict.

"Our view is that this regime is the equivalent of dead man walking," said Hof, the state department's pointman on Syria, which he said was turning into "Pyongyang in the Levant", a reference to the North Korean capital.

He said it was difficult to determine how much time Assad has left in power but stressed: "I do not see this regime surviving."

11.52am: The French foreign minster, Alain Juppe (left), has issued a new call for president Bashar al-Assad to stand down.

Iraq

A ceremony has taken place at Baghdad airport to mark the end of almost nine years of war there and the withdrawal of all American troops, who should be gone by the end of the year. Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, paid tribute to the troops who fought there and claimed there had been "remarkable progress" in the country (see 10.33am). Panetta predicted that Iraq would be "tested" by terrorism, economic challenges and the demands of democracy. But said the US would be on hand to help Iraq with a "significant diplomatic presence". The Guardian's reporter Martin Chulov noted the absence of triumphalism and described the ceremony as "simple and low key".

Syria

The Local Co-ordination Committees, which report on protests in Syria, claim the death toll there has increased to 5,216, including 968 defected soldiers and 356 children (see 9am). Over 1,700 of the deaths occurred in Homs, report the LCCs. Activists claim the true figure could be even higher. Meanwhile the French foreign minister, Alain Juppe, called for Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, to stand down, and an official in the US state department described Assad as a "dead man walking" (see 11.13am).

Egypt

Egyptians mostly in rural areas have been continuing to vote in the second round of the country's first post-Hosni Mubarak parliamentary elections, with accusations from both Islamists and liberals that election officials have been filling out ballot forms for "elderly or confused" voters, according to the Associated Press. Two alliances led by Islamists have won close to 70% of the seats in the first round, according to an AP tally compiled from official results. This second round, taking place yesterday and today, is not expected to radically alter that result. A third round is set for January. The elections will lead to the formation of a parliament, whose job will be to select a 100-member assembly to draft Egypt's new constitution.

Libya

Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, said today that Italy would continue to unfreeze Libyan funds. Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the chairman of Libya's ruling National Transitional Council, said Libya would use the unfrozen funds to pay off debts to Italian companies.

Anwar Omran, an activist in Hama, said a battle is going on in the eastern part of the city, where army defectors have destroyed tanks.

Speaking via Skype from the city he said: "They [the army] continue attacking the city, by tanks. There [are] many wounded people and there are some dead. I have 12 names [of the dead]."

It [the shooting] never stopped. They attack [one] neighbourhood and then they move to another neighbourhood. They are using tanks and armoured military vehicles. There are several buildings and shops burnt.

Asked about resistance from defected soldiers, Anwar said: "There are some Free Army in Hama [who] clashed with the army. There are several tanks damaged and burned ... There [are] clashes in particular areas, not the whole city, mainly in the east part of the city. Yesterday they shot two tanks and today I hear they damaged seven tanks."

I don't know how many soldiers are killed. There is a war between the two sides so certainly there are casualties. I think there will be many more [dead than the 12 names already recorded] because it is not calming down ... I'm moving from place to place. I hear sometimes some explosions. There is black smoke.

Asked if he was safe, Amwar said "now yes". But he added: "When someone is moves around from one place to another he will be in danger, because maybe someone will target him."

In Lattakia, on the west coast of the country, security forces have dispersed two student demonstrations, the LCCs report. The activists report two other student demonstrations in the city too. In Medan, Damascus, security forces are "violently repressing" a student demonstration, the LCCs say. In Aleppo, the LCCs report two demonstrations, one of them "massive", at the university. "Demonstrations are chanting for toppling the regime and demanding the release of the detainees," the LCCs write.

Different revolutionary groups sought to unify their operational and political leadership to join forces and overthrow the regime.

Now that the time is ripe, it has become necessary to declare our existence publicly. Therefore, we announce the National Alliance of Forces, Coordinators and Councils of the Syrian Revolution, Al-Leeqa.

2.03pm: A US intelligence consultancy has examined the options for foreign intervention in Syria from clandestine operations to all out invasion.

The report by Texas-based Stratfor speculates that some of the options are already being tried.

The least risky and least detectable option for a country pursuing intervention is to ramp up intelligence activities in the target country. Such activities can involve clandestine activities like developing contact with opposition figures or encouraging generals to conduct a coup or defect to the opposition.

Clandestine efforts can also include working with opposition groups and non-governmental organizations to improve their information warfare activities. These activities may progress to more obvious covert actions, such as assassinations or sabotage. Most of actions taken in the covert intelligence war against Iran can be placed in this level.

It concludes with a guide to signs that foreign intervention is taking place.

The likelihood of actions against Syria happening at the top of the force continuum [see graphic] is very remote. Instead we will need to keep focused on the more subtle signs of foreign involvement that will signal what is happening at the lower levels of the scale. After all, any comparison to a "dead man walking" [see 11.13am] makes one wonder if the United States and its allies will take steps to hasten demise of the al Assad regime.

Speaking to MPs after meeting William Hague, the UK foreign secretary, in London, she said:

The regime has used the fear of al-Qaida and instability to steal money from the international community. To the British people, I say, we don't want your aid, we don't want your taxes. We want our own money.

According to the Council for Arab Understanding, which co-organised the visit, Karman also called on UN security council to refer the killing of protesters to the international criminal court.

3.19pm: There was no triumphalism and certainly no shock or awe, writes Martin Chulov of today's ceremony in Baghdad to mark the withdrawal of US troops.

The end of the war in Iraq was subdued and simple: a small band playing as the US forces' flag was furled with 200 troops watching on quietly.

In a makeshift parade ground in a corner of Baghdad airport, time was called on the war just after 1pm on Thursday, eight years, eight months and 26 days after its far more dramatic opening in March 2003. Nearby a plane was waiting to take home the US high command. And in southern Iraq, the 4,000 US troops who remain were steadily streaming towards Kuwait.

3.40pm: Syria's foreign ministry has attempted to discredit a former diplomat who defected to the opposition.

Iraq

A ceremony has taken place at Baghdad airport to mark the end of almost nine years of war there and the withdrawal of all American troops, who should be gone by the end of the year. Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, paid tribute to the troops who fought there and claimed there had been "remarkable progress" in the country (see 10.33am). Panetta predicted that Iraq would be "tested" by terrorism, economic challenges and the demands of democracy. But said the US would be on hand to help Iraq with a "significant diplomatic presence". The Guardian's reporter Martin Chulov noted the absence of triumphalism and described the ceremony as "simple and low key".

Syria

The Local Co-ordination Committees, which report on protests in Syria, claim the death toll there has increased to 5,216, including 968 defected soldiers and 356 children (see 9am). Over 1,700 of the deaths occurred in Homs, report the LCCs; they reported another two deaths there today http://www.facebook.com/LCCSy. Activists claim the true death toll could be even higher. Meanwhile the French foreign minister, Alain Juppe, called for Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, to stand down, and an official in the US state department described Assad as a "dead man walking" (see 11.13am). Syria's foreign ministry has attempted to discredit a former diplomat who defected to the opposition, Mohammed Bessam Imadi (see 3.40pm). Canada launched a "voluntary evacuation" campaign to help 5,000 of its citizens leave Syria (see 2.41pm). A new Syrian opposition group, the National Alliance of Forces, Coordinators and Councils of the Syrian Revolution, Al-Leeqa, was announced (see 1.29pm). The LCCs reported demonstrations and army activity in various parts of the country (see 12.49pm). In Hama an army assault continued and defectors began to fight back (see 12.43pm). A video uploaded to YouTube today purported to show bomb damage in Hama.

Egypt

Egyptians mostly in rural areas have been continuing to vote in the second round of the country's first post-Hosni Mubarak parliamentary elections, with accusations from both Islamists and liberals that election officials have been filling out ballot forms for "elderly or confused" voters, according to the Associated Press. Two alliances led by Islamists have won close to 70% of the seats in the first round, according to an AP tally compiled from official results. This second round, taking place yesterday and today, is not expected to radically alter that result. A third round is set for January. The elections will lead to the formation of a parliament, whose job will be to select a 100-member assembly to draft Egypt's new constitution.

Libya

Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, said today that Italy would continue to unfreeze Libyan funds. Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the chairman of Libya's ruling National Transitional Council, said Libya would use the unfrozen funds to pay off debts to Italian companies.

Yemen

Tawwakul Karman, the Yemeni peace laureate, has urged the British government to freeze the assets of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the president (see 3.05pm). Meanwhile six world powers and the United Nation proposed a plan to reunite Yemen's fragmented military to reduce chaos in the country. A fragile ceasefire between troops loyal to Saleh and fighters allied with the opposition is taking hold, but a planned military withdrawal from the capital Sanaa will put the truce to the test.

Bahrain

Security forces used tear gas and stun grenades to try to disperse hundreds of anti-government protesters marching towards the capital (see 1.04pm). US assistant secretary of state Michael Posner, who was visiting at the time, gave praise to the king for taking steps to implement reforms and called on both the government and the protesters to refrain from violence. He also raised concerns about court cases involving doctors who helped injured protesters and excessive use of force by the government.

Tunisia

Moncef Marzouki, the newly elected president, said he is prepared to resign if life in the country has not improved after six months. Tunisia was the first "Arab spring" country to overthrow its dictator and elect a president.