January 31, 2013

Gay marriage popular but Chafee not

Raleigh,
N.C. – Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode
Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the
job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most
unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse
numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois.

Chafee does poorly in numerous scenarios we tested
for next year's Gubernatorial race:

-In four different scenarios testing four
candidates- either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side,
either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as
an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block- Chafee finishes third
in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican
candidates.

-It would be difficult for Chafee to become the
Democratic candidate anyway though. 35% of Democratic primary voters want Gina
Raimondo to be their candidate next year to just 22% for Chafee, 19% for Angel
Taveras, and 11% for Ernie Almonte.

Overall 57% of voters don't want Chafee to seek
reelection next year. 20% want him to run as an independent and 18% think he
should run for election again as a Democrat.

“Lincoln Chafee is really in a hole,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He managed to win in 2010 because
of a splintered field but even that wouldn’t pull him across the finish line at
this point.”

The early front runner in next year's race is
Raimondo. In addition to leading the Democratic primary field, she also leads
every general election scenario we tested. She leads Brendan Doherty by 4
points and Allan Fung by 12 points in four way contests with Chafee in the
picture as an independent. When you take Chafee out of the picture Raimondo leads
Doherty by 12 points and Fung by 19 points in three way contests. 57% of voters
in the state have a favorable opinion of Raimondo, and her popularity holds
true across party lines. Majorities of independents (63/19), Democrats (53/23),
and Republicans (52/23) all have a positive opinion of her.

Angel Taveras has an even better statewide favorability
rating than Raimondo, with 63% of voters seeing him positively to 21% with an
unfavorable opinion. But Taveras' general election numbers for Governor aren't
as strong as Raimondo's. In four way contests he trails Doherty by 5 points and
ties Fung. In three way contests without Chafee he leads Doherty by 4 and Fung
by 6.

Depending on how the field plays out Republicans
should have a chance to be competitive in this race. Both Fung (55/14) and
Doherty (45/32) have pretty strong statewide favorability numbers. There are a
lot of states that are a lot more red than Rhode Island where Republicans don't
have candidates that popular they can run for statewide office.

The other main finding on our Rhode Island poll is
that voters in the state strongly support legalizing gay marriage- 57% support
it to 36% who are opposed. When we polled the state on this issue in
February 2011 there was 50/41 support for it, and the 12 point increase in the
margin in favor of same sex marriage reflects the national movement on this
issue over the last few years. Among Rhode Islanders under the age of 45
there's 65/31 support on the issue. Looking more broadly at legal rights for
same sex couples 85% of voters, including 75% of Republicans, at least support
civil unions.

“If public opinion has anything to do with it Rhode
Island will legalize gay marriage this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state strongly favor it and support is
increasing by the year.”

PPP surveyed 614 Rhode Island voters including 320 Democratic
primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The margin of error for
the overall sample is +/-4.0% and +/-5.5% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year wereModerate Party candidate Ken Block, LincolnChafee, running as a Democrat, andRepublican Allan Fung, who would you votefor?Ken Block........................................................ 16%Lincoln Chafee................................................ 32%Allan Fung....................................................... 36%Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q13 Next year, would you like Lincoln Chafee to runfor Governor as a Democrat or anindependent, or would you not like him to run atall?As a Democrat ................................................ 18%As an independent.......................................... 20%Would not like him to run at all........................ 57%Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year wereModerate Party candidate Ken Block,Democrat Gina Raimondo, and RepublicanBrendan Doherty, who would you vote for?Ken Block........................................................ 10%Gina Raimondo............................................... 44%Brendan Doherty............................................. 32%Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year wereModerate Party candidate Ken Block,Democrat Gina Raimondo, and RepublicanAllan Fung, who would you vote for?Ken Block........................................................ 12%Gina Raimondo............................................... 46%Allan Fung....................................................... 27%Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year wereModerate Party candidate Ken Block,Democrat Angel Taveras, and RepublicanBrendan Doherty, who would you vote for?Ken Block........................................................ 13%Angel Taveras................................................. 39%Brendan Doherty............................................. 35%Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year wereModerate Party candidate Ken Block,Democrat Angel Taveras, and Republican AllanFung, who would you vote for?Ken Block........................................................ 15%Angel Taveras................................................. 37%Allan Fung....................................................... 31%Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should beallowed in Rhode Island, or not?It should .......................................................... 57%It should not .................................................... 36%Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q19 Which of the following best describes youropinion on gay marriage: gay couples shouldbe allowed to legally marry, or gay couplesshould be allowed to form civil unions but notlegally marry, or there should be no legalrecognition of a gay couple's relationship?Gay couples should be allowed to legallymarry ..............................................................54%Gay couples should be allowed to form civilunions but not marry .......................................31%There should be no legal recognition of a gaycouple's relationship .......................................13%Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q20 (Q20-22 asked only of 320 Democratic primaryvoters) Given the choices of Ernie Almonte,Lincoln Chafee, Gina Raimondo, and AngelTaveras, who would you most like to see as theDemocratic candidate for Governor next year?Ernie Almonte ................................................. 11%Lincoln Chafee................................................ 22%Gina Raimondo............................................... 35%Angel Taveras................................................. 19%Someone else/Not sure .................................. 12%

Q21 If Lincoln Chafee wasn’t an option, who wouldyou most like to see as the Democraticcandidate for Governor next year, given thechoices of Ernie Almonte, Gina Raimondo, andAngel Taveras?Ernie Almonte ................................................. 9%Gina Raimondo............................................... 44%Angel Taveras................................................. 35%Someone else/Not sure .................................. 13%

Q22 If the candidates for Secretary of State nextyear were Guilluame De Ramel and EdPacheco, who would you vote for?Guillaume De Ramel....................................... 8%Ed Pacheco .................................................... 15%Not sure .......................................................... 77%

Q24 Do you support or oppose the pension law thatwas passed in 2011?Support ........................................................... 46%Oppose ........................................................... 20%Not sure .......................................................... 34%

Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 51%Man................................................................. 49%

Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 38%Republican...................................................... 17%Independent/Other.......................................... 45%

Q29 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.18 to 45........................................................... 35%46 to 65........................................................... 47%Older than 65.................................................. 18%

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