Its been 13 months since baseball commissioner Bud Selig promised Congress
he would take up steroid use on a case by case basis.

When does he plan to take up the first case?

The Rodriquez bombshell has flung 103 cases onto his lap, and he can no longer
ignore them. He knows who they are, and its only a matter of time before
we all know.

Could Jim Thome, David Ortiz, and Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn and Carlton Fisk
be among them? I'm not saying they are guilty, but they have left footprints
that Sherlock Holmes would be quick to follow. If they are innocent, they
should welcome, even demand, a thorough airing to clear their names..

__________________________________

John B Holway is author of many books on baseball history.
His latest, TED: War and Heartbreak, will be published by Scorpio Books in
April.

Most users uncovered so far were good athletes in their 20s, when most athletes
reach their prime years. Then their numbers declined until they suddenly
found the fountain of youth and soared to records that surpassed the best
that they, or anyone else, had ever achieved.

(This method doesn't catch a man who has been juicing since early in his
career).

The career statistics fun question follow, along with listed weights, some
of which seem 20 pounds or more below the visual evidence.

Age

Thome 255

Ortiz 230

Gwynn 199

22

7

9

0.289

1

23

20

0

0.309

1

24

25

10

0.351

5

25

35

18

0.317

6

26

38

20

0.329

6

27

40

31

0.370

14

28

30

41

0.313

7

29

33

47

0.336

4

30

37

54

0.309

4

31

49

35

0.317

4

32

52

23

0.317

6

33

47

0.358

7

34

42

0.394

12

35

7

0.368

9

36

42

0.358

3

37

35

0.372

17

38

34

16

39

10

Total

573

288

132

Gwynns sudden resurgence coincided with Ken Caminitis arrival
in San Diego, when, Ken said, he was introduced to steroids. I tried to warn
the Hall of possible embarrassment before Gwynns election, but no one
listened.

Fisk went from 21 homers to 35 at the age of 37. Other suspects might include
Lenny Dykstra, who went from six homers to 19 at the age of 30, and
Baltimores Brady Anderson, from 16 to 50 at the age of 32. Readers
may be able to suggest others.

The fact that Gwynn and Ortiz are so popular makes Seligs promise tough
to keep. Its one thing to crack down on Bonds, Clemens, and Mark McGwire.
They were at the end of their careers and unpopular villains, whom the public
enjoyed hissing.

But once a man is in the Hall of Fame, hes virtually immune from
investigation. And it would be equally dangerous to go hunting for the ebullient
Big Papi with his large fan base, especially since it can have powerful
implications for the pennant race.

That's probably why Selig couldn't give admitted juicer Jason Giambi even
a slap on the wrist  he would have created a mob of fist-waving Yankee
fans besieging his Park Avenue office with nooses in hand. Instead, Giambi
was thanked profusely for helping kids baseball and given a love-pat
on his rump.. If he had still been with Oakland, would he have been treated
so gingerly?

The likable fan favorite, Sammy Sosa, was also caught in the net but was
allowed to retire quietly without the humiliation of a congressional show
trial.

Ironically, A-Rod doesn't look like a typical steroid user, and his numbers
dont follow the familiar pattern. If anything, the data suggest that
steroids were of dubious value to him.

He says he started taking them in 2001, when he was 25. His home runs did
increase that year from 41 to 52, but that could be explained by an extra
80 at bats, a new friendly park, and the fact that 25 is historically a big
age for power hitters. Babe Ruth also moved to a new hitter-friendly park
and jumped from 29 to 54.

The next year Babe climbed to 59, and Roger Maris zoomed from 39 to 61, so
A-Rods 57 was not out of line. All three slipped from those peaks at
27.

The year Rodriquez says he stopped taking steroids, at age 28, was also his
first in Yankee Stadium with its cavernous Death Valley. Predictably,
he tumbled to 36 homers. If he was going to take steroids, this was surely
the time to do it. The evidence suggests that he didn't.

Thus, Rodriquez numbers would not have attracted a sleuths suspicion.
And his neck size did not grow noticeably bigger either. Did he throw away
his chance for Cooperstown for nothing?

Of more interest is his sudden jump from 35 to 51 in 2007, followed by a
drop back to 35 in 08. Was that steroids? Not necessarily. He was 31
that year. It could have been just a statistical spike -- Ruth hit 60 at
age 32. A-Rods drop-off the following year was partly due to 60 less
at bats.

What about the other 103 players caught in the same testing net with A-Rod?
Would publishing the list clear Thome and Ortiz or convict them?

Further investigation might also reveal that managers, general managers,
and owners knew very well what was happening in their locker rooms. Selig,
who works for them, would be understandably loathe to take the lid off that
basket of cobras.

The Yanks do have a record of signing sinners  Clemens, A-Rod, Giambi,
Gary Sheffield, Chuck Knobloch.

One can imagine the following scene:

Steinbrenner: I've got a chance to get Giambi. What do you think, Joe?

Torre: I dunno. Maybe he had a lucky year last year. How do we know he can
still produce?

Steinbrenner: Dont worry. I've got his medical report. (Winks)

Torre lets a faint smile flicker across his usually Buddha-like face.

This scene could have been played in almost any big league office across
the country.

The Red Sox, for example, desperately bid for Rodriquez too, and Ortiz
power numbers increased suddenly in 2003, the year he joined Boston from
Minnesota.

Like Rodriquez, Big Papi experienced a dramatic power failure in 08,
from 54 to 23 in two years. Does that mean baseball has successfully cracked
down on juicers?

Hardly. Gabe Schechter, research associate at the Hall of Fame, points out
that, of almost 5,000 homers hit in 07, the total dropped by only 79
in 08. That's almost nothing.

It suggests strongly that the scandal is still serious, and there is no effective
enforcement. Either that or the juice was taken out of the players and put
in the balls. At least thats more democratic  everybody gets
an equal crack at the ball.

I sympathize with the commissioner: Silence was the only viable choice he
had. But the Rodriquez bombshell has taken that option away.

There are another 103 guilty players waiting nervously for the next headline
to expose them. And about 650 innocent ones, who are equally but wrongly
suspected. Selig owes it to the innocent to keep his promise to Congress.