Oddsmaking on Game of Thrones

Spoilers incoming! Don’t read beyond this if you don’t want to be spoiled!

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Odds Smalljon Umber is playing Ramsay for a fool

1:1

Odds Osha gets tortured or beaten

3:1 (i.e. 75% chance)

Odds that the wolf head is actually Shaggydog

1:1

This is essentially a conjoined estimate with the Smalljon – I find it unlikely that the Smalljon would kill Shaggydog and be part of the Great Northern Conspiracy. And I find it unlikely that he wouldn’t kill Shaggydog but yet be loyal to Ramsay.