Obama tanks, GOP surges in Iowa

BETTENDORF, Iowa — The state where Hope and Change first took hold appears to have a case of buyer’s remorse.

When a crop of potential Republican candidates descended on Iowa this week to boost the campaign of — and earn a chit with — former and likely future Gov. Terry Branstad, they found a dramatically different state from the one that propelled Barack Obama to the front of the pack of Democratic presidential hopefuls and overwhelmingly supported him in the 2008 general election.

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Shut out of the Terrace Hill governor’s mansion since Branstad left office in1998, the GOP is poised to reclaim it, seize control of the state House, and easily hand veteran Sen. Chuck Grassley another six-year term. They may also pick up a congressional seat or two.

Raw numbers tell the story of the Republicans’ revival in the Hawkeye State: GOP voter registration is up by more than 36,000 from a year ago, while the number of registered Iowa Democrats has plunged by nearly 24,000 during the same period.

The resurgence of Republicans is also visible the ground and on the airwaves here.

The crowds at two days of GOP events across eastern and central Iowa — traditionally the Democratic-leaning part of the state — were noticeably larger and more enthusiastic than at many rallies and party dinners in the lead-up to the 2008 presidential caucuses.

The Scott County Republican Committee’s Reagan Dinner on Tuesday night, for example, drew a crowd of at least 400. All the tables in a large new convention center on the banks of the Mississippi River were filled. This in a county Obama carried by 15 percent against Sen. John McCain in 2008.

“Iowa was the state ... that launched Barack Obama on a path to the White House, but today we are seven days away from Iowa being the state that tells the rest of the nation that we are charting a different course for our state,” crowed state GOP Chairman Matt Strawn.

Tune in to an Iowa TV station, and the difference two years can make is impossible to ignore. The airwaves are saturated with campaign ads from candidates and outside groups — including hard-hitting Republican spots that tie Obama around the necks of Democratic candidates like a millstone.

The anti-Obama effect is evident even far down on the ballot: A Democratic state representative from a competitive district who was swept into office on the president’s coattails in 2008, for example, is now being attacked in a commercial for having “endorsed Obamacare.”

A Des Moines Register poll taken a month ago showed that Obama's approval rating in the state was upside down — 42 percent of likely voters approved of his performance while 55 percent indicated they disapproved.

That Branstad — who was the state’s youngest and longest serving governor — is positioned to win the office again isn’t entirely surprising, given his enduring popularity in the state. But that all three of the state’s Democratic members of the House are now facing competitive races underscores just how resurgent the GOP is here.

Rep. Leonard Boswell, who represents the Des Moines area in the House, was widely expected to face a serious GOP challenge. Boswell may ultimately survive, thanks in part to his facing a flawed Republican opponent. But it has become clear in recent weeks that the two Democrats from eastern Iowa, Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, are locked in unexpectedly competitive races.

Loebsack has the more Democratic-friendly district of the two — it includes the college town of Iowa City — but is seen as a less-deft campaigner than Braley.