Nothin’ but Debt: Which NCAA Tournament Schools Give Low-Income Students the Best Shot?

We used federal data to create an NCAA Tournament bracket based on five factors that measure each school’s ability to graduate low-income students with little debt: the percentage of undergraduates from low-income households, the average financial support given to those students, the tuition discount that those students receive, their post-graduation debt, and the percentage of those students who are unable to pay back their loans after graduation.

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1st ROUND

2nd ROUND

SWEET 16

ELITE EIGHT

FINAL FOUR

FINAL

FINAL FOUR

ELITE EIGHT

SWEET 16

2nd ROUND

1st ROUND

March 16-17

March 18-19

March 23-24

March 25-26

April 1

April 3

April 1

March 25-26

March 23-24

March 18-19

March 16-17

First Four

16 Mount St. Mary's 0

16 New Orleans 0

11 Providence 0

11 USC 0

16 NC Central 0

16 UC Davis 0

11 Kansas State 0

11 Wake Forest 0

First Round

EAST

10

160

80

90

50

120

40

130

6 W. Va 0

11 Dayton 0

30

140

70

100

20

150

West

10

160

80

90

50

120

40

130

60

110

30

140

70

100

20

150

MIDWEST

10

160

80

90

50

120

40

130

60

110

30

140

70

100

20

150

South

10

160

80

90

50

120

40

130

60

110

30

140

70

100

20

150

Second Round

EAST

WEST

MIDWEST

SOUTH

Sweet Sixteen

EAST

WEST

MIDWEST

SOUTH

Elite Eight

EAST

WEST

MIDWEST

SOUTH

Final Four

Championship

Winner 65

Loser 60

The NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournament has begun, and as college hoops fans across the country have their eyes on the 68 teams playing in this year’s tournament, we’ve also been busy scrutinizing the field.

We, too, have filled out our tournament bracket, but we’ve focused our handicapping not on basketball prowess, but on each school’s skill at helping its poorest students graduate without crushing debt.

Our calculations were based on our Debt by Degrees interactive database which has been updated to include new data for the 2014-2015 school year. You can use Debt by Degrees to analyze how well over 5,000 schools support students from low-income households.

Earning a college degree is a slam dunk way for students to achieve social mobility, leading to higher future income, better health and more family stability. What the data shows is that the choices colleges make about distributing resources can either deepen economic disparities or help upend them.

Depending on where your allegiances lie, you may be stunned with some opening round upsets, such as #16 UC Davis’ shutout of #1 Kansas — meaning they win on all five of our criteria — or the Norse of #15 Northern Kentucky eking out a win over their more famous cross-state opponent, #2 Kentucky.

Our simulated tournament brings us to an intriguing Final Four, which includes 12th seed Princeton, 16th seed UC Davis making a Cinderella run, and a surprising appearance by perennial tournament contenders (and bitter rivals) Duke and North Carolina. (A run of this bracket based on last year's Debt by Degrees data even ended in a Duke-UNC championship game.)

There are a few important caveats to bear in mind: Although we simulate results and crown a champion based on low-income student support, our bracket is originally seeded by schools’ basketball performance during the current season — sadly leaving out teams like SUNY-Albany, which beats several Sweet 16 teams using our criteria, even if their basketball team went a mediocre 21-13 this year.

Also, winning our bracket doesn’t mean a school is the best in the field. A team’s chances in any tournament are affected by the luck of the draw. Debt by Degrees features more complete leaderboards for several of our criteria on its homepage.