The OPEC cartel of the world’s 12 major oil producers is expected to keep production high to protect market share and meet increasing demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This puts this year’s 45 percent price rise at risk.

Production by OPEC rose
to 31.33 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, which is the
highest since August 2012, and is expected to remain high in the
coming months, the agency said Thursday in its
monthlyreport.

"Barring unforeseen
outages, OPEC is likely to keep pumping at around 31 million bpd
during the coming months as Middle East producers sustain higher
rates to preserve market share and meet summer domestic
demand,"it
said.

Some of the cartel’s biggest producers – Saudi Arabia, Iraq and
the United Arab Emirates – have kept output at more than 1
million bpd above OPEC’s official supply target for three months
in a row, it added.

Oil prices have grown 45
percent since mid-January, mostly due to supply disruptions, IEA
said. But since refinery projects are now completed, this rally
could finish soon.

“Product imbalances have likely been a key factor behind
recent oil price strength, and that particular source of support
might soon wane,” the agency said.

Global oil demand in 2015 will also grow by 280,000 barrels per
day (bpd), bringing the total this year to almost 94 million bpd.
The IEA raised forecast for non-OPEC supply in 2015 by almost
200,000 bpd to 1 million bpd following stronger-than-expected
output from the US during the first quarter.