Packers vs. Falcons - 12/8/14 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

NFL Football: Monday, December 8, 2014 at 8:30 pm (Lambeau Field)

TV: ESPN

The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers play Monday night at Lambeau Field.

The Atlanta Falcons have won three of their last four games and are making a push for the NFC South crown. Matt Ryan is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Ryan has four touchdowns and two picks in his last two games, and the Falcons have 46 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Julio Jones and Roddy White have combined for more than 1,800 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Devin Hester has eight of his 27 receptions in his last three games. The Falcons ground game is averaging four yards per carry, as Steven Jackson leads the way with 602 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, the Atlanta Falcons are allowing 24.9 points, 403.2 yards, and they’ve forced 14 sacks and 24 turnovers. Paul Worrilow leads the Falcons with 111 tackles and Desmond Trufant has 13 pass deflections.

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The Green Bay Packers have won four straight and are inching closer to an NFC North crown. Aaron Rodgers is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 32 touchdowns and three interceptions. Rodgers has seven touchdowns and zero picks in his last three games, and the Packers have 45 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have combined for more than 2,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns while Davante Adams has seven of his 34 receptions in his last two games. The Packers ground attack is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, as Eddie Lacy leads the way with 770 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, the Green Bay Packers are allowing 22.3 points, 366.8 yards, and they’ve forced 28 sacks and 23 turnovers. Morgan Burnett leads the Packers with 92 tackles and Julius Peppers has five sacks.

The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay and the road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

The Atlanta Falcons have been playing some decent football and now actually have a reason to play to win. While I don't think Atlanta can beat Green Bay, we're getting a ton of points here. As you guys know, I hate laying heavy chalk, especially in an NFL game where a lot of the games are close. Give me the Falcons and as many points as I can get.

Atlanta Falcons +11.5

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