Advanced Financial Forcast

If you have been thinking about the the forces distorting the global economy:

In the long run, the distortions don’t matter, because economies are bigger than governments, and eventually economies prevail over governments. Here are my dozen problems in the global economy.

1) China’s mercantilism — loans and currency. The biggest distortionary force in the world now is China. They encourage banks to loan to enterprises in order to force growth. They keep their currency undervalued to favor exports over imports. What was phrased to me as a student in development economics as a good thing is now malevolent. The only bright side is that when it blows, it might take the Chinese Communist Party with it.

2) US Deficits, European Deficits — In one sense, this reminds me of the era of the Rothschilds; governments relied on borrowing because other methods of taxation raised little. Well, this era is different. Taxes are high, but not high enough for governments that are trying to create the unachievable “permanent prosperity.” In the process they substitute public for private leverage, and in the process add to the leverage of their societies as a whole.

3) The Euro zone is a mess — Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc. I admit that I got it partially wrong, because I have always thought that political union is necessary in order to have a fiat currency. I expected inflation to be the problem, and the real problem is deflation. Will there be bailouts? Will the troubled nations leave? Will the untroubled nations leave that are the likely targets for bailout money?

4) Many entities that are affiliated with lending in the US Government, e.g., FDIC, GSEs, FHA are broke. The government just doesn’t say that, because they can still make payments.

5) The US Government feels it has to “do something” — so it creates more lending programs that further socialize lending, leading to more dumb loans.

6) Residential real estate is still in the tank. Residential delinquencies are at all-time highs. Strategic default is rising. The shadow inventory of homes that will come onto the market is large. I’m not saying that prices will fall for housing; I am saying that it will be tough to get them to rise.

7) Commercial real estate — there is too much debt supporting commercial real estate, and too little equity. There will be losses here; the only question is how deep the losses will go.

8 ) I have often thought that analyzing the strength of the states is a better measure for US economic strength, than relying on the statistics of the Federal Government. The state economies are weak at present. Part of that comes from the general macro-economy, and part from the need to fund underfunded benefit plans. Life is tough when you can’t print your own money.

9) The US, UK, and Japan are force feeding liquidity into their economies. Thus the low short-term interest rates. Also note the Federal Reserve owning MBS in bulk, bloating their balance sheet.

10) Yield greed. The low short term interest rates touched off a competition to bid for risky debt. The only question is when it will reverse. Current yield levels do not fairly price likely default losses.

11) Most Western democracies are going into extreme deficits, because they can’t choose between economic stimulus and deficit reduction. Political deadlock is common, because no one is willing to deliver any real pain to the populace, lest they not be re-elected.

12) Demographics is one of the biggest pressures, but it is hidden. Many of the European nations and Japan face shrinking populations. China will be there also, in a decade. Nations that shrink are less capable of carrying their debt loads. In that sense, the US is in good shape, because we don’t discourage immigration.
the aleph blog