I typically try to keep these expert league draft write-ups short but this year’s Yahoo! Friends & Family draft serves as an interesting draft to both: 1) Share a little more about my in-draft thinking and 2) Go off on tangents based on a couple of interesting draft gambits. So apologies in advance for the Tolstoyan/Grantlandian length of this post.

Fantasy baseball draft rooms remind me of poker tables. I do not play a lot of poker but, for analogy’s sake, I’ll pontificate that there are two types of tables when you play with good players: 1) Strong but predictable play with occasional risks/bluffs and 2) Unpredictable but strong play that takes you out of your comfort zone.

Most leagues we play in fall under the former for 15-team mixed snake drafts (AL/NL-only auctions a whole different beast). There really was not a moment in this year’s 15-team mixed LABR and KFFL drafts where I felt uncomfortable. I had a general strategy, my values, and the NFBC ADPs. All peachy. I am not saying I dominated those drafts – just that I felt pretty comfortable. It did not hurt that I picked 8th in both those drafts so I did not have to worry as much about position runs.

As you can probably guess, I consider the Yahoo! Friends & Family draft room to be the unpredictable, discomforting type of draft room. You can click on the link to see the full results. Before I get into this year’s, let me get the mandatory stuff out of the way:

2013 finish (co-managed w/ Grey but I led/botched the draft) – 12th out of 14. Won by Rotoworld’s DJ Short (106) over Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski (105). What went wrong? We could’ve survived my first 3 picks (Harper/Verlander/Holliday) but BJ Upton/Ike Davis in rounds 4/6 combined with a cratered bullpen (Axford/Hanrahan) and poor SP2/SP3 (Gallardo/Kennedy) doomed this team (bottom 3 in R/HR/RBI/SV/ERA/WHIP). The Cuddyer and Pence value picks are like icing on a turd. This is the 3rd straight poor finish after a 3rd place finish in our inaugural year. Really frustrating (and part of the reason why improving my 14/15-team mixed draft strategy was a priority this year).

2014 league parameters (changes): 15 teams (vs 14), 1400 IP cap (it was 1250 in 2012 and I drafted 2013 assuming it was 1250 again), no IP minimum, daily roster changes that go into effect next day, $100 FAAB only for waiver claims (unlimited FA pickups/drops), typical ESPN roster format except 2 UTIL and 4 OF (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/OF/OF/OF/OF/CI/MI/UTIL/UTIL/9 P/3 bench/2 DL). You do not have to fill every slot on the roster at the draft.

Side note on daily pickups with no FAAB – This is a mixed blessing. I do prefer being able to make daily changes to my roster and this gives me more opportunities to use the Stream-o-Nator and Hitter-tron. But the reality is that it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to snag any player based on breaking news. I whine that I cannot beat Grey to the punch in RCL but this league is half-populated with people as quick (or quicker) as Grey. My only advantage is most of the quick triggers are in California so I have a shot at being the first to act on early morning breaking news. Most likely, any daily pickups I make will be of the boring ‘what’s left’ variety.

Now to the draft. Here were the key gambits:

Dalton Del Don of Yahoo! (and formerly Rotowire) starting the draft Kershaw/J-Fer/Scherzer/Billy Hamilton/G. Cole on his way to a nearly 50/50 hit/pitch split (converting draft slots to $). He did draft power with later picks so this is not a pure pitching and speed play – just a SP-centric draft with a strength at SB.

My take: I like Dalton but I don’t like this gambit. I ran his pitching through my category $ calcs and the only category he is a near lock for top 2-3 is K’s. He is above average in Wins/ERA/WHIP but not by an overwhelming amount and a 1400 IP cap makes it difficult to excel in all three categories. His offense, however, is putrid for R/RBI/AVG at magnitudes much greater than his ERA/WHIP/K strength. Thanks to Hamilton he is above average in SB and his HRs are enough that he can net a few points. It is always possible to grind out some R/RBI by out-AB’ing the cellar dwellers but I think even that will be hard. The only way I see this playing out well is a combination of good fortune with AVG + good fortune with closers + 1-2 huge SP for hitting swaps done throughout the year.

I think if forced to execute this gambit, I’d punt HR/RBI and focus on R/SB/AVG guys. I also would go with just 2 aces vs 3 and divert some $ to RP. I think a 2 SP1 / 1 SP2 / 1 RP1 / 2 RP2 strategy in 15-team provides a little more $ for offense while still providing potential for 5-category pitching dominance.

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! drafting zero SPs and 3 closers (Chapman, Uehara, Henderson) in an echo of his 2012 draft (where he drafted only 2 SP). This seems to be the “punt W/K strategy and aim to get 100 points in the other 8 category” play that takes advantage of the fact there is no IP minimum.

My take: This strategy has caused a lot of angst on Twitter by leaguemates Christopher Liss (Rotowire) and Michael Salfino (WSJ/Yahoo). There are three potential edges in this strategy: 1) You can spend more on hitters because you are not drafting SPs, 2) Maximizing ABs (a concept I’m quite familiar with) by rostering only hitters on your bench plus creating some extra spots by rostering less than 9 pitchers to swap in when starting rostered hitters are sitting and 3) Maximizing matchups via the extra roster spots so you are getting better quality per game played – e.g., starting Drew Stubbs only against lefties or when @COL. After looking at the total Games played per team in 2013, it is clear most teams are at about 90-95% the maximum of Games. I think the maximum AB ‘edge’ one can get is in the +5% range which I estimate at anywhere from 3-7 standings points spread out across R/HR/RBI/SB. Really depends on the distribution of stats across the teams. I think the potential to maximize matchups is limited because this is a 15-team league. There are no same-day pickups so you cannot leverage extra bench spots to pick up guys hitting in prime lineup spots. Just about any hitter with platoon value has overall value and will be owned. So I think there is a slight edge on offense but – based on the team he drafted – I do not see him as a ‘lock’ for anything more than 50 hitting points. Definitely potential for more but not a ‘lock’ – especially if an early hitter pick underperforms or gets injured. As for pitching, his Saves/ERA/WHIP have potential for 45 points but, with 3 closers, there isn’t a lot of slack (underscored by the fact that his #1 closer – Chapman – recently broke his face). And we all know that chasing Saves means using in-season replacements who cannot be counted on for dominant ERA/WHIP. If he gets into an ERA/WHIP hole, it will be hard to come out of it.

Net-net, I like this strategy more than DDD’s but I’d put the chances of him getting 100+ points slightly lower than if he did a standard strategy as Pianowski can be a beast in daily-roster change leagues (he has 95+ points in 3 of last 4 Yahoo! F&F).

Brad Evans of Yahoo! doing the Weekend at Bernie’s gambit where you play dead most of the draft and use auto-draft. Aside from the inevitable late-round injury cases (Medlen, Corbin, Beachy) and SAGNOF relief duo of Qualls/Hawkins, his team doesn’t look too bad.

Pick #13. F**k me. Had that same pick last year. (Grey got #10). At least this year I feel better about the late 1st/early 2nd round options.

The 1 minute timer for selections was borderline cruel at times for me after slow drafting KFFL and an NFBC team.

Mental note: With two UTIL, assume everyone drafts 5 OF but that drafting 4-5 1B/3B will happen a bit more. Even with Ortiz/Butler/V-Mart at 1B eligibility, corners may go high. That said, I am probably punting 3B again unless I get Encarnacion. I also do not want a SAGNOF OF. All my OFs should be able to contribute in at least 3 categories. I would rather have an SP with the 3rd or 4th but only on my terms (have drafted no SPs in the first 4 rounds of 2 of my 3 15-team mixed drafts so far).

Mental note: While this is a daily roster change league, filling 1400 IP is not easy (only 5 of 14 got there in 2013). If you assume 6 IP/GS, that is 200 GS + 3 full seasons of relief pitching or 180 GS with 5 full reliever seasons. The average RCL team had 1330 IP last year (with 180 GS cap) and, in 15-team, it is not like you necessarily want much more than 180 GS. If high K-rate middle relievers go cheap, pick up some. If not, draft a lot of starters and plan to use Stream-o-nator to play matchups and count on the waiver wire for emerging MRs and SPs. But I would like to be in a position to get 1,400 IP to maximize Wins/K’s without punting ERA/WHIP along the way.

I went through several permutations of 1st/2nd round drafting and concluded that there was about a 60/40 chance one of four OFs (Jones, Braun, CarGo, Harper) falls to me at 13. If that happened, I felt positive that I could draft one of the following 1Bs (Davis, Fielder, Encarnacion, Votto) with the 18th pick. I just needed one of the SS (Hanley, Tulo) to go in the top 12 and two of Darvish/Ellsbury/Beltre/Longoria going in the top 18. I had 1st round fallback plans to take either Davis, Encarnacion, or Cano (Grey and I agreed that Kershaw was a near lock for top 10). The good news is that Hanley went in the top 12 and Adam Jones fell to me. The bad news was that Paul Singman and Andy Behrens gobbled up Votto and Encarnacion at #16 and #17 (only Darvish went out of that ‘top 18’ group), leaving me with none of my desired 1B. I ended up choosing Kipnis as I felt he was the best value left on the board. Would have been THRILLED to get Encarnacion as he has 3B eligibility in Yahoo which bumps him to 10th overall in my rankings. I have seen some compelling arguments on Freeman this year but 18th felt early for him.

For my 3rd/4th picks, I had not planned on taking a 1B (assumed 1st/2nd round) and hoped one of Wainwright/Sale/Bumgarner would make it back to me. Nope on that one. This is where Dalton’s Kershaw/J-Fer/Scherzer troika helped facilitate a slight creep in the SP run, leaving me with Felix Hernandez and Price as my two SP options. I don’t like Price this year because of velocity concerns and did not love F-Her with this pick. One of my strategies this year is to ignore ‘position run’ pressure – if I don’t like the guy, have the faith there will be value later in the draft at that position. With both the 14/15 picks behind me having no 1B, I grabbed Pujols and F-Her/Price went with the next two picks. Not loving the OF values, my decision is between starting the RP run with Kimbrel or take Hosmer at #4. I decide to play it safe and go with Hosmer though I know my shot at an elite closer (Kimbrel/Chapman/Jansen/Holland) is likely toast.

After the first 4 rounds, I do not feel comfortable at all. The draft has not ‘slowed down’ for me. (In hindsight, I think I made the right call on these picks.)

Things ‘slow down’ for me as the next 24 picks between my 4th/5th start ‘going to plan’. As expected, the premium closers go quickly (the last, Holland, is gone by the 6th pick in the 5th round). Only 3 SPs are taken (Greinke, Cole, Gio). The next tier of OFs go off the board. Rosenthal is still on the board for my 5th pick (pick #73) but I like Jordan Zimmermann and have to grab at least one SP in the next two picks before people start grabbing SP2. Take Zimmermann.

Rosenthal taken on the turn and now I have a few OF choices (Gordon, Werth) and RP choices (Uehara, Nathan). I decide on taking another SP (Wacha) to protect myself against another SP run. I know at least Jeff Erickson of Rotowire is a big fan of Wacha so no assurances he makes it back to me with pick #7. Plan on taking closer with next pick.

A number of SP/RP go off the board but I still have several options on each by my 7th pick. Shields and Teheran are still on the board if I had gone with the OF/RP instead of Wacha. Oh well. But Perkins and Robertson are still on the board so nothing really lost. I look at my draft board and am surprised to see Wilin Rosario still there at pick #103. I have him as my top catcher and at #26 (?!) driven by his power advantage and decent AVG. I really prefer punting the position in 1 catcher leagues but this is a huge discount. Four catchers are off the board (Posey/Mauer/Santana/Molina) so it is not like everyone is punting catcher. I take Rosario to help solidify the offense figuring Perkins or Robertson makes it back. Robertson does and I take him with the 8th pick.

Now that I have a core (5 hitters/SP/SP/RP), I am paying attention to the balance on my team. I have been adding up my category $ while I draft to make sure I avoid last season’s pitfalls of going too K-heavy (at the expense of WHIP) for pitching and not focusing enough on AVG (Based on Grey’s drafts so far, I don’t think he shares my low AVG/OBP concern.). I am not a slave to this balance – just using this as a tiebreaker for my picks. I finally land Aoki (10th round) this year whom I really like as a strong 3 category contributor (R/SB/AVG) and nab Brad Miller for the 3rd time (his 2B/SS eligibility a slight plus). Really like Miller this year for 30 HR+SB and solid runs/AVG.

I like my Cingrani pick at the end of the 9th round to improve my staff’s K/9 but I regret going with a 1B-eligible Victor Martinez with my 12th pick instead of Justin Masterson or maybe Tommy Hunter at RP2 (no way I am taking Axford here after he crushed several of my teams last year and his handcuff would be super-expensive…at least with Hunter, you can get his handcuff in the late rounds). I end up with Lester as my SP4. My hope on V-Mart – besides providing dependable R/RBI/AVG when healthy – is that he gets 5 catcher starts in the first month or two. Really like the flexibility of rotating him into the C slot when Rosario is out. Getting 145+ games out of catcher is one of the few ‘low-hanging fruit’ opportunities to max AB.

I play ‘chicken’ on RP during the ‘tween’ rounds and it comes back to bite me as teams are aggressively drafting relievers. I reach a bit on Rex Brothers with my 14th pick (#198) hoping to get Hawkins in a few rounds and Brad Evans grabs him 5 picks later. More surprisingly, Funston picks Cody Allen 5 picks after Brothers (likely frustrating Derek Carty who owns Axford but confirming the reason I avoided him). Benoit and Santos are also off the board by my 15th pick.

Grey drafts his third 3B in Mike Moustakas (after Longoria and Arenado), thwarting my chance of owning him in my first four drafts. I do not love the value on the remaining 3Bs and use my 15th/16th picks on two rhyming upside OFs – Avisail Garcia and Oswaldo Arcia. Arcia helps shore up my power while Avisail has 20/15 potential. Hoping to circle back to MI and 3B while everyone else worries about OFs.

By the time my 17th pick is up, there is nothing I really love out there. Ervin Santana is my top available SP but I do not feel a ton of pressure to pick up a 5th SP. I scour the relievers and the only guy with even moderate Save potential I see is Jesse Crain. Eh, what the hell. I can stash him on DL until he comes back. Given his price tag, I think the Astros make him closer once he is healthy and potentially dangle him as trade bait come trading deadline.

Still blah on the SPs at pick #18 (Santana picked at the turn). Going to roll the dice on Corey Dickerson. He is by far the biggest outlier in my values vs. the market consensus. Have him on 2 of my 3 previous teams (LABR/NFBC) and feel like Grey might take him in his next two picks if I do not grab him there. That fills up my 2nd UTIL slot and my 5 OF minimum goal. This pick might come back to bite me if he does not make the team as I either have to waste a bench spot on him or set him free.

Nothing too exciting the rest of the way. I stock up on SPs (Miley, Peavy, Erasmo, Santiago). I instantly regret taking Miley when I did, thinking I should have gambled on Archie Bradley. Take Matt Dominguez at pick #288 as my 3B which earns him a couple weeks to perform. I had considered him one of my 3B ‘punt’ targets this preseason along with Frazier, Middlebrooks, and Moustakas so it was not surprising he ended up on one of my teams. With the MI options uninspiring, I take Vic Black as my last pick and leave MI open.

Note: As of today, MI still open. I will fill that when a roster spots opens up from Jesse Crain becoming DL-eligible. I also dumped Black for Josh Fields as a bench MR/save spec and swapped out Dayan Viciedo with Junior Lake off of waivers.

Overall, I drafted a solid team based on my rankings (~$280 and above average in everything except SB where I’m average). I ended up with a 64/36 hit/pitch split for my starting squad (with MI open) which is not far off from my 67/33 target. I have the desired mix of youth and veterans (while Wacha/Cingrani as SP2/SP3 look mighty green, my pitching staff is ancient compared to Grey’s ‘Pitching Staff of the Corn’ with only one starter having more than 36 career GS (Tillman)). Aside from perhaps being too cute on RP2, I did about as good a job as I could expect in avoiding damage from others’ unorthodox strategies (e.g., i secured my offense – aside from MI/3B by pick #18 – avoiding any impact from Pianowski drafting 19 hitters (leaving 3 SP spots blank).

But, whether it is the 3 straight disappointing finishes or the gambits that threw me early in the draft, I do not feel great about this team. Here is hoping my team does not self-destruct like last year’s team so I have a fighter’s chance come May.

A guy in my league has 3 SS on his roster. Originally he had approached me about trading for Tulo but he backed out. He’s now offering me Andrelton Simmons for Sonny Gray. Should I do this deal? I’m a little worried about Reyes and his hammy issue but I’m not looking to overpay.

@B.J.: Not clear how many teams in your league but guessing 12. Not clear if this is H2H or Roto but guessing Roto. No way I trade Gray for Simmons. I consider Simmons barely ownable in shallow leagues. Simmons and Owings are useless to him. He’ll be dropping one of them in the next 2 weeks.

@Hans: That’s a sweet offense and RP (tough break on Chapman). I’d have a short leash on CJ Wilson since your SP FA pool is probably deep. You can look at my 10-team Yahoo rankings to identify valuable FAs…

Hey there Rudy, I’m in a 16 team h2h 5×6 (add OPS). You said I should punt steals, but I gather you meant I should not prioritize it rather than abandon it. You said no SAGNOF which makes perfect sense because you said all-speed players hurt you in 3 other categories. Here’s my question. Do I prioritize speed guys with good ops numbers early on such as Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, or pretty much ignore the steals category? Thanks as always.

@Chris: I think Aoki would definitely be worth swapping Hunter out for to add a little more speed and Runs in your OF. I like Torii this year – he’s undervalued – but I like Aoki more. Depending on how your team is doing, I can see benching Victorino or Napoli in favor of Aoki.

I like Arenado better than those two. But, if possible, I’d look to stream a 3B when Arenado isn’t at Colorado. Could get best of both worlds then.

Rudy, this is good stuff. I feel like we always see your work with numbers, stats, and the point shares, but seeing your draft strategy in a very competitive league is nice. I built my money league auction around Encarnacion’s yahoo 3B eligibility based on your point share evaluation, its too bad you couldn’t pair him with Jones. You owning Kipnis, a Grey schmohawk, should be interesting.

@Josh: Thanks. It’ll be an interesting year in our expert leagues since Grey and I aren’t co-managing anymore except our CBS AL and NL leagues. Cool on Encarnacion – his 3B eligibility definitely adds to his value and those ESPN vs. Yahoo nuances in position eligibility are something I’ve worked to make sure I’m accounting for in my $/Point Shares.

Yeah, was bummed I missed out on EE and Kipnis is typically not a player I’d draft since I don’t put much premium on 2B/SS. But one key aspect of 15-team this year is that there isn’t a ton of speed out there – particularly at MI. So getting one of the few 25+ SB guys at MI (Kipnis, Segura, Altuve) provides more flexibility in OF selections (e.g., not having Marte as your OF1/OF2 or drafting a SAGNOF).

Wish I had more power/speed… Have two open roster positions due to one drop and Minor on the DL. For a weekly league, should I have an extra bat or two to plug in for the off days for my offense, or should I scoop up more pitching (Lohse available, as are young guns like Hutchison/Paxton, and vets Melancon/Mujica)?

@Macio: This looks like a solid team. Looks like you de-emphasized speed and saves a bit which I like for H2H. I’d go with one bat and one SP for your two open slots. I like Paxton more. I’d consider an NL West starter like Hudson if available to balance out all that youth. No need for more RPs. I would just grab the best hitter on the board and ignore speed.

@Macio: I think you are set for speed in a H2H…H2H is all I play and all my teams have a lot less speed than you…Kipnis, Desmond, Cargo, Aoki is plenty enough imo, maybe a little too much…I echo what Rudy says.

I like your team Rudy. You got some great OF values, even though I always underrate Adam Jones.

I love Rosario this year.

I hope Domingez works out. How about Matt Davidson as a back-up option at 3B? I like the fact that he plays in that little ballpark. Or Grey’s in love with Asche. Looks like 3B might be a decent place to punt and get a waiver wire hero.

Here’s my RCL team, please give me your thoughts. I missed a couple different runs on 1B and got sniped 3 times and eventually punted it:

@Jeff in Southern Indiana: Thanks! The benches are small so can’t afford to use one on a back-up 3B. I figure the FA wire is my bench if/when Matt Dominguez disappoints. Gillaspie is the starting 3B for the White Sox now with Semien backing up so Davidson is off the radar.

I don’t have a good feel for your team on first read. It does feel like Segura/Hamilton is not a good pairing and that you’d want to trade one of them at some point in the season. I think the power/rbis may be sneaky good on your team b/c of Rosario/Cano. You should total up the category $ on the ESPN 12 team mixed pre-season player rater. $35 is average for hitting categories, $17 for pitching (with saves being a bit wonky) – your team is probably about average on Saves.

I think your pitching success will be dependent on how well you stream. Wouldn’t be my preferred staff – I just never warmed up to Liriano (nor do I trust his health) and Latos has pre-season injury woes as well. But I like F-Her + Archer + Dickey in the right matchups (maybe based on whether the roof is up or down?).

I was wondering about your Victor Martinez pick. With two Util spots, you can definitely play him. Hopefully he gets 5 starts at Catcher early on and you can maximize your Catcher AB’s. I’m a believer in rostering two catchers in a one catcher league to maximize those at bats. Sometimes those additional counting stats really can help.

I’m in the same mind as you on Aoki and Arcia. Both of those guys are on 2 or 3 of my teams this year. I think Aoki is underrated, especially now that he’ll have the green light all day long with Yost. I see him getting back to that 30 SB number from 2012. I’m thinking around 100 runs for him is a lock, as long as he stays at the top of the lineup.

Your team looks a little light on power. Hopefully Pujols will go back to his old self and hit at least 30 HRs for you.

How did Adam Jones slip that far to you? I’d be very happy with that first pick.

@Shake N Bacon: Yeah, agreed on V-Mart. Some nice flexibility if I have a UTIL with C/1B eligibility. Cool on Aoki and Arcia – really thought based on ADP that Aoki would be on several of my teams but he always went sooner than I expected. I think HR/SB are my weakest offensive stats with HR slightly above average and SB slightly below average. I’m hoping the Lake pickup will help a bit on SBs (vs Viciedo).

I was glad to see Adam Jones fall but it seems one of those OFs falls down in every draft. I remember USAToday’s Steve Gardner got Braun with the #15 pick in the KFFL draft when I got Jones with the 8th pick. Crazy.

That is the most suspenseful draft breakdown I have ever read. Excellent write up if not the draft itself. There is great value in RP/handcuffs but it seems expert leagues go overboard, drafting them way too soon. This one did. That was fun. It felt like I was there.

@2 Giant rings: back to my ops/ignore speed question for a second. If I ignore speed, does that mean I should abandon Grey’s strategy of quantity SP over quality? He says to go late on SP and draft lots of them for your bench. But in this league, I’d be punting a lot if I’m abandoning steals and era/whip.

@2 Giant rings: Im no Rudy but I do play in a ton of OPS H2H leagues, My strategy is same as you, abandon speed (well not 100%) but I also follow Greys advice about pitching..I do however, try to get at least 1 speed guy, Altuve, Ecab, Marte etc….It has worked out for me great.

@Shawn of the livid: Thanks. I think Scott’s strategy is more common in H2H. I can see it being frustrating – feel like if everyone in the league wants to avoid a gambit like this, it’s pretty easy to build rules to prevent it (IP minimums typically do the trick).

Enjoyed the writeup Rudy. I think going Pujols/Hosmer there was the right call. After missing out on all the decent 1b in our NFBC draft, it’s a tough way to go. We had Rosario ranked #15 in NFBC so it’s nice to see you had him similarly ranked.

@mrrr: Thanks. Yeah, that 2nd UTIL really plays to the ‘best available bat’ drafting philosophy. I remain shocked on Rosario falling that low. After last year’s RCL experience with Posey (rough 2nd half), there was no way I was drafting a catcher w/ one of my first 15-20 picks unless it came at an overwhelming discount. I know Grey was also debating it and he’s even more of a catcher punter than me.

@Rudy Gamble: We couldn’t pull the trigger on Hosmer or Pujols at 31 overall. In retrospect I think I might have now in NFBC (now stuck with Teix and hoping Kendrys signs soon). The rankings for Rosario and Castro were so high in NFBC when we took them that we let them go any longer.

@mrrr: Rudy, probably the best writeup of a draft I’ve seen. I think most writeups are missing the suspense element of the draft unfolding, and you captured that well. Plus, you went way beyond the usual “picks I liked, picks I didn’t” formula. Your team actually looks a little like mine from the NFBC league we’re in together! mrrr – I took Hosmer early in that draft, probably my worst pick!

@Nick: Sitting at 31 we knew the other top 1Bs wouldn’t be there when it got back to us but it just felt too early for Hosmer or Pujols. None of the OF options excited us and we didn’t want to go SP/SP. Posey I’m not thriled about there. So it ended up being Desmond. I like the pick – we knew we would miss out on our top 1bs then.

Drafting 1st was great for Trout but hard to wait that long between picks. Had to target guys you really wanted a little early instead of letting the draft come to you.

Looking forward to Rudy’s writeup and seeing how the season goes. Your team is looking good – no major injuries so far and Santana signing with ATL was a good fit.

@mrrr: Yeah, I’ve actually had good luck with that team. Schoop and Semien might play earlier than normal, and Santana’s signing was helpful as you pointed out. Definitely knock on wood though! It’s a long season. I have about 15 saves speculations for depth and only one backup at most other positions.

Speaking of gambits, what do you think of this one: I have a 7 upper middle to middle tier SPs in a 5×5 12 team (worst SP is Lynn) as well as 3 closers. My league has a 180 games started max, but no innings limit. I was thinking about maxing out 120 starts with my guys as fast as I could (say by August), picking up all RP to replace them and hopefully jack my Ks and ratios while letting my top 3 SPs finish out their full season of 30 starts.

This is my first year in this league so i didn’t know what to expect. It looked like pitching was at a premium, so against my will I went at it a little earlier and harder than usual. except for closers, I totally missed out on closers, which is why I have so many non closer RPs

Hey I’m drafting tomorrow and have the 4th pick in a 12 team HTH. I was originally planning on grabbing Goldy or McCuth depending on who was there and was happy just to get them. Lately I have been eyeing Chris Davis for the extra homers and the fact that in all my mocks I haven’t really ended up with much in the way of stolen bases anyways. Do you think I should keep one of the first two guys or go with the extra power. Thanks for all the help you guys give.

Who would you put in at UTIL: Adams or Calhoun?
Also, since I placed some players on the DL I get to pick up some FAs. Avisail is available so I’ll grab him. I have 2 more spots, which SP would you take: Estrada, Smyly, Travis Wood, or Nova? Crain and Hawkins are also available but considering I have 4 closers, I probably won’t take them.

Great write-up, Rudy. Appreciate the insight, as others have said. Looks like a fairly solid team, with those caveats you mentioned. But the name that immediately jumped out at me was Wacha.

Clearly, you’re big on him for this year. But #78? Think this could end up as your reachiest pick there… That’s a top 20 SP value. Even if there’s no regression coming at all, will he get to 200 IP? Is it the Cardinal offense (W potential) that boosts his value for you?

Also, everyone’s down on Miller for reasons I don’t understand – he was taken 3 rounds later, and I think he and Wacha are kinda tomato/tomahto. Really good tomatoes, mind you – but from the same vine, if you see what I mean.

20 team H2H keeper league, 10×10 (won’t bore you with all the cats but it includes fielding %, so there’s that…). Keep ten for any period of time (2 IF, 2 OF, 2 SP, 2 RP, 2 any), but nobody from the first three rounds.

My team is ungodly young–like crazy young…. like Martin Perez is my veteran starting pitcher. If I want to try to win this year (in addition to being set for the future, which I think I am), should I try to move some of my younger pitchers for vets who are assured innings? Or what would you do?

Rudy, I like the team you drafted. Would have been awesome if Votto/E-5 fell to you there. If so, that would have put you up on the top for sure. I think you recovered nicely after that. I am not as big on Kipnis as most, but you did great getting Pujols & Hosmer in Rounds to follow.

If you did get one of the big 1b (Votto/E-5) when would you have taken a 2b? I am asking, b/c I am considering waiting to the mid-to-late rounds and get a guy like Daniel Murphey.

@Erich Traum: Thanks. If I didn’t take Kipnis, I would’ve looked at Altuve for speed. I’ve gotten Gyorko in two other leagues and Prado in the other. I like Murphy – he was a great low round buy for me last year – but he’s been too expensive for my tastes this year.

The yahoo friends and family draft has always been my favorite draft to follow – for five years now. It even compelled me one year to try and Facebook friend Scott Pianowski. He didn’t accept my request. Haha. I was just trying to get in on the whole”friends” part and have an excuse to get into that league someday. Best of luck, Rudy!

Auction league where I think I should have spent more on a front-line SP and less on offense depth possibly, although many offensive studs were kept as keepers.

QUESTION: should I trade Holliday, rios, or Gordon for an SP upgrade to balance my young upstarts or sit tight and play the waivers until some other team is more desperate for OF help? Any other thoughts about the team appreciated.

@Shultz: You should trade an outfielder for starting help. Thats a heck of a lineup you just need another starter or two to stay competitive. Gordon and Eaton are good players and capable starters in 12 team leagues and they aren’t helping you on the bench.

15-teamers are just plain brutal. Just one criticism Rudy: I realize we all have different tastes and ranks, but passing up the consistency of Beltre in favor of Kipnis is a bit much for me to take. (Although you could counter with the scarcity/2B is poop in 2014 argument.) But I certainly wish you luck, and I look forward to seeing how you and Grey do with separate teams.

@RotisserieJedi: i’m sure 20-team drafters laugh at your 15-team commentary. It’s a fair point on Beltre – I somewhat irrationally fear that every year he’s going to fall off a cliff like 3B are wont to do in their mid-30s. He’s been great for 3 straight years. One point on Kipnis – it’s not so much the scarcity of 2B overall as in specifically speed. There just isn’t a lot of speed to go around and securing it in MI leaves more flex in OF. So Kipnis feels like a strong 4-category play there (not sure on AVG).

I really like this team. And I really did not like your team in this league last year so kudos on the self evaluation and game plan development. Are you doing a write up on your nfbc team or did I miss it?

@Cole: Thanks. Hopefully my strategy rethink pays dividends this year. Haven’t written up my NFBC but compiling the three Razzball-sponsored drafts to share w/ everyone. You’ll never guess who drafted the most valuable team based on my estimates!

@Charles: Thanks. I don’t know if I have a favorite format. I like AL/NL only auctions and like mixed league snake drafts or auctions. I prefer weekly roster changes only to let me manage more teams. I like the challenge of the RCL format but the day-to-day management wears on me a bit.

Rudy, my two critiques of your daft: (1) Wacha was a reach (2) You may regret not taking Teheran over Rosario. Perez was around in the 11th.

I like Hosmer and Zimmerman a lot

That said, can you give me a critique of my squad? Head to head 12 team league with H and OPS and K/BB and Total bases in addition to the normal 5×5 cats.

C Navarro (This is an embarrassing start. For some reason people took two catchers. Mesoraco is available I will pick him up as soon as he is healthy. )
1B Goldschmidt
2B–Dozier/Rendon/Profar
SS–Segura
3B–Lawrie/Arenado
OF–Alex Rios
OF–Yoenis Cespedes
OF–Eaton
U–Hosmer
U–Aoki
Bench–Gardner, Rasmus, Aybar

@EB: Thanks. Agree on Wacha. Hoping my ‘gut’ call on him pans out. Interesting call on Teheran vs. Rosario. I just didn’t want to invest that early in an SP3. If I had gone w/ Rosenthal in the 6th round instead of Wacha, I likely choose Shields in the 8th round (over Teheran assuming Wacha was off the board). So we can look back as the season goes on and determine which would’ve been best:

– Wacha/K-Rob
– Rosenthal/Teheran
– Rosenthal/Shields

As for your team, be patient and a Catcher will be dropped. The 2B is weak but waivers will help there. I’m not understanding why you have so many bench hitters. I would think SPs would be more helpful. I just drafted this format (with 14 teams) tonight and ended up with 9 SPs and 1 RP. You can always stream during the season but a SP on the bench is more useful than Colby Rasmus and Erick Aybar are going to be.

@Rudy Gamble: Hi Rudy, Thanks for the input re: my bench hitters. I was just looking them over struggling over who to drop and I was even thinking about keeping all of them.

Rasmus will be my first drop along with Aybar if Segura’s shoulder turns out to be all right. I didn’t plan on taking so many hitters its just that pitching was well picked over by the end. I will add a couple starters as soon as possible.

Good luck this year and thanks tons for the input. I think you’ve got a contender in this Friends and Family league.

Forget apologies, I say we need more grantlandian length articles from you Rudy. I appreciate the thought process behind the picks, and your read on the room. Think it’s at least as valuable as looking at your roster itself, if not more so.

Now, about that 2nd round Kipnis pick. I actually like Kipnis more than yours and Grey’s ranks. However, I’m curious as to why Beltre was not on your radar at 2.17 when E5 went at 2.16. From what you wrote, it seems he wasn’t even someone you’d considered, but your custom steamer ranks have him quite high iirc. I agree E5 is more valuable than Beltre, but the latter’s floor is hardly without its value, and one could argue that the ceiling is plenty high given the changes to the Rangers’ roster. I would also consider him a safer play than Kipnis there. Would like to get an idea of what lead you to your decision at the time, and if you think it was better for the rest of your draft.

Glad you liked the post! You’re right on Beltre. The value was there. For whatever reason, though, I just never pull the trigger on him for fear that this is the year that he falls off a cliff like all 3B inevitably do. Plus, I like punting 3B this year and was making an exception with EE. Lastly, it was good to secure some speed earlier in the draft so I didn’t have to reach later.

@Rudy Gamble:
I can see the risk argument for Beltre, but again, the lineup changes have me swayed. The speed issue you mentioned is something I’m totally buying. Though those same steals can be had later in the draft, it’s near impossible to match the R/RBI production you get from the early pick in Kipnis. That’s the reason I have him higher than the various rankings here. Starting off with somewhere around 50 steals in the first 2-3 rounds is a huge boost imo, because it helps you maintain balance from the get go. Not having to reach for the speed picks later just seems to open up the draft a lot more. Anyway, good luck with the team this year.

@Alky Sobrera: Sobrera: My goal this year is to be about league average in SBs and focus on being great on the other stats. I don’t think I had 50 SBs by the third round except in LABR when I had Puig/Segura at 2/3. Although I guess A-Jones/Kipnis should get around 40 (with Hosmer chipping in a sneaky 10).

@Kyman: deep bench of SP is good idea anyway. Just start streaming when your first starter either gets hurt or worst starter starts to suck. You can still stream with 6 weekly pickups, just not as much.

@goodfold2: Agree. We just did a 14-team H2H last night w/ Razzball writers and beer leaguers. I focused mainly on hitting (R/HR/RBI/AVG) and SPs. Ended up with 9 SPs I project b/w $7-$15. No ace. Just a deep bunch that I can leverage for matchups and 2-start weeks. You also have to grab SPs off waiver wire but I find the deep SP bench provides security in case leaguemates gobble up all the good pitchers.

I recently told a friend I would help him out and do an auction draft for him since he was going to be gone. This is an 12 team, AL only league. This league used to be 11 teams but this guy is the newest member which puts them at 12. They have keepers in the league but he obviously will not have any. Budget I have is $260. I am having trouble figuring out a drafting strategy for him because of their strange league settings.

It is a 4×4 (HR, RBI, AVG, SB, W, Saves, ERA, WHIP) with a roster setup of (C,C,1B,2B,SS,3B,CR,MI,5 OF, Util, and 9 P). Yes you read that right….they have TWO CATCHERS for AL ONLY and 12 teams. They also do not have any K’s for pitchers….cause that makes sense….

The strategy I’m considering, punt ALL SP’s. The only thing they would give you is wins and that is so hard to project for. Instead I would pick up all middle relievers and closers which would save A LOT of my budget. I could then use this extra money to bolster the bats. What are your thoughts on this strategy? Do you have any better ideas? Thank You and keep up the amazing work!

Hey Rudy, what’s the ETA on stream-o-nator and hitter-tron? Heard you on the podcast say something about improvements this year for adjusting more to a player facing righties or lefties? Can you reiterate that for me?

@Drew: Planning on opening day but running out of time. Finally have all the data feeds connected (including probable pitcher). Just a matter of having some hours to devote to it.

The biggest improvement is that Steamer is now giving me hitter projections against RHP and LHP. For pre-season/ROS projections, I have a model that estimates each player’s ratio of RHP PA:LHP PA, apply it to Steamer’s rates, and add them up. For Hitter-tron, I just use those directly.

Last year, I tried to back this RHP/LHP out but that doesn’t work for players who have significantly different RHP/LHP PA splits vs league average (think platooned players). Their rates are inflated because they get to play more often against opposite-handed pitchers. So my adjusted rates for guys like Moss, Gomes, etc. was too high – it was like they got a double-adjustment instead of a single-adjustment. All taken care of now.

There are also some park factor improvements/updates – notably using factors based on the hitter’s handedness. A field like Yankee Stadium is great for lefties, okay for righties. If you use an averaged park factor, that gets lost and lefties are undervalued, righties are overvalued.