One month ago, when the market's recent rout was still perceived by many as a textbook correction and an opportunity to "buy the dip" instead of a signal that the economy is turning late cycle - and is a sufficient condition for the Fed to pause its rate hikes - we first asked the question whether this was an ordinary, garden variety 10% correction in a rising bull market, or is this the start of a bear market?

As we showed at the time, the answer could be found - at least superficially - in the following Goldman chart, which showed the average trajectory of the MSCI World from a year before the start of a drawdown, through the actual drawdown and subsequent 10% drop, and then follows the two average paths: one of recovery, and the other of sliding into a bear market.