NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections for the Daytona 500

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc has a Ph.D in mathematics, is a three-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event. RotoDoc placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona in 2017, one year after placing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the same event. In 2016, RotoDoc finished 8th out of over 20,000 entrants in the $400k DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate after being in 1st place going into the last lap. In 2017, RotoDoc finished in 8th place in the $300k Daytona 500 slate. Here are his NASCAR DFS picks and projections for the 2018 Daytona 500.
The field is set for the Daytona 500, and thanks to a wild Duel 1, there are some very strong drivers starting at the back. DraftKings has a $600k guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournament with a $20 buy-in for Sunday’s race. I’ll break down the Daytona 500 slate, and give my NASCAR DFS picks, fades, and machine learning model projections for Sunday’s Great American Race.
If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the restrictor plate section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers and remember, at a track as wild as Daytona it is not a requirement to find a race dominator.
Make sure to look out for my DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate strategy article, coming out tomorrow morning, where I’ll talk roster construction tips, and GPP game theory to help you for Sunday’s slate. Also, be sure to check out tonight’s RotoViz Live show, where I’ll break down all 40 drivers, dive into strategy, and answer all your questions for Sunday’s race, live on my Twitch page at 9:30pm ET/6:30pm PT.
In a short time, the Optimizer, the Splits App, and the Sim Scores will be updated as well.
For now, let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections.

NASCAR DFS Model Projections

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions lower than about 21st. The Pts column shows the average DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race. The Pts column is calculated by the following formula:

Pts = (44-Finish) + (Start – Finish) + (LL/4) + (FL/2)

Here are the model projections, followed by my NASCAR DFS picks for the Daytona 500.