Dan Steinbock

Dan Steinbock

About the author:

Dr Steinbock is an internationally recognized expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among all major advanced economies and large emerging economies. In addition to advisory activities (www.differencegroup.net), he is affiliated with India China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore). For more, please see http://www.differencegroup.net/. Research Director of International Business at India China and America Institute (USA) and Visiting Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore).

The recent Washington summit took the US-China bilateral relations onto a new level, while President Xi’s UN visit gave a glimpse of China’s new global role. The current characterization of the U.S.-China bilateral relations are very different trajectories of power. As President Barack Obama is on his way out, President Xi Jinping is just getting started. In turn, the U.S. presidential election cycle, particularly its aggressive rhetoric, may cast shadows over bilateral progress.

According to Dan Steinbock, the internationalisation of the renminbi is accelerating. The inclusion of the yuan in the IMF basket of reserves is now a matter of time. On August 11, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) adjusted the exchange rate of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar to reflect market conditions. The net effect was a devaluation of 1.9% relative to the dollar.

As the Fed is paving way for the first rate hike in a decade, the world economy prepares for the greatest shift of capital flows in half a decade. Recent market turmoil in the U.S. and China heralds the transition.

The sanctions against Russia are working; but not for Russia, Ukraine, the EU, or even the US. In the 2nd quarter, Russia’s GDP contracted 4.6 percent from a year earlier, following a 2.2 percent contraction in the 1st quarter. There were expectations of a severe contraction after the selloff in oil, currency crisis and the consequent plunge of consumer demand. But the plunge was worse than anticipated and most since 2009.

The third Greek bailout is not a solution to either Greece or its creditors. Dan Steinbock explains how the talks led to an unsustainable deal that is likely to ensure subdued growth, debt and unemployment in Greece, and the eclipse of austerity politics in Europe.

Not so long ago, gold rose to new highs. Recently, it has suffered the most challenging losses since 1999. The Fed’s rate hikes do not bode well for the gold in the near term, but what about in the medium-term?

Recently, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the 2022 Winter Games to Beijing, in a joint bid with the city of Zhangjiakou, the capital’s “northern door” adjoining mountains with ski resorts. In the West, the response has been apprehensive, presumably because of concerns about cost and environment.

The fluctuations of the oil prices, the Fed’s policy rate and the U.S. dollar are intertwined. In fall 2015/spring 2016, the Fed’s impending rate hikes will cause substantial turbulence in emerging markets. Until recently, oil prices were recovering. However, after rallying earlier in the year, oil plunged nearly 20 percent in July (and briefly fell below $47 per barrel). In the past, that has often heralded the coming of a bear market.

The White House’s effort to hammer the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in Maui failed. As time is running out for President Obama’s legacy achievement, both Washington and Beijing are reassessing their options. Last week, Pacific Rim officials met on the island of Maui, Hawaii, to conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. In addition to trade ministers from 12 countries, the meeting included 650 officials, lobby groups and other stakeholders.

As the focus of the West was fixated in Greece and Iran, the 7th BRICS Summit began a massive shift from a dialogue to an economic partnership – one whose full impact will be witnessed in the coming years.

Amidst lingering European stagnation, Chinese investment holds the potential to rejuvenate the European Fund for Strategic Investments. In the past, China has indirectly financed the European economy vis-à-vis the European Investment Bank (EIB) bonds. In early June, several European regions and cities courted the four largest Chinese banks – ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China – to invest in the European Fund for Strategic Investments; also known as the Juncker fund.

The BRICS Development Bank launched. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is taking off. Where is Nigeria? As a slate of long-term projections suggest, Nigeria’s huge economic potential requires huge determination. When Muhammadu Buhari took over from Goodluck Jonathan, he ran on a platform of security and zero patience to corruption. Those are the preconditions for the creation of prosperity and growth.

In the recent S&ED between China and the U.S, the most intriguing developments involved not just the formal bilateral progress, but also those undercurrents that illuminate the potential future of the dialogue. After months of diplomatic friction over the South China Sea, both sides acknowledged an easing of tension in the run-up to the seventh meeting of the Sino-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED).

Not so long ago, China’s A-share index lingered around 2,000. Before last week’s plunge, it closed at 5,200. In the short-term, the market will remain volatile, but just as China’s economy has not emulated typical market fluctuations, its potential should prevail in the long term.