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Game 74, Mariner at Angels

Ah, Tommy Hanson. Going into 2009, he was the 4th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He put up a 4+ WAR season for Atlanta at 23, and would’ve been one of the most valuable commodities in baseball heading into 2011. This off-season, he was sent to Anaheim in exchange for a so-so relief pitcher. He’s still only 26, and is in his first year of arbitration, but essentially every single number is trending in the wrong direction.

From 2010-2013, his FIP has gone from 3.31 to 5.02. His K% went from 20.5 all the way up to 26.3% before cratering this year at 15.4%. His fastball velocity’s gone from 94mph to 89mph. O-swing? 28.3% to 24.8%. You get the picture – he’s a pitcher in decline. In Hanson’s case, it’s probably health related. The Braves were willing to cut him loose because he’s suffered from shoulder problems that first appeared late in 2011. Many, including some in the Braves, pointed to his odd pitching motion, in which he starts slowly before whipping his arm over the top. In fact, he altered those mechanics last season with the Braves, removing a ‘pause’ in his delivery to maintain momentum and hopefully ease the strain on his shoulder as it accelerates his arm. Obviously, the Braves weren’t thrilled with the results.

This season, Hanson’s made a couple of adjustments – or at least, his pitches seem to indicate a conscious effort to tweak his declining results. First, he’s now a slider/curve dominant pitcher who mixes in a fastball. He’s gone from about 55-60%+ fastballs to around 45% and declining. Those fastballs have become sliders, and he’ll throw the pitch to righties and lefties alike. The second change is more interesting: while he was always an over-the-top pitcher whose fastball had a lot of vertical movement, he’s currently throwing the fastball with the most ‘rise’ in all of MLB. His Angels teammate Jered Weaver is always near the top of that particular table, and he illustrates what can happen when a fastball has freakishly large amounts of vertical movement: lots of pop-ups, harmless fly balls and weak contact. Theoretically, it can help set up a change-up, but Hanson’s is just a show-me pitch he throws about 1% of the time. In general, all of those fly balls can be risky. In Anaheim, that may be a risk worth taking. It’s clearly worked for Weaver, but it seems to be clearly counterproductive for Hanson. His HR/9 has risen each year (it’s basically what’s driving his FIP upwards), and is currently nearly 1.6. Moving to Anaheim may have helped, but moving to the American League…hasn’t.

The other thing a lot of vertical movement can help with is platoon splits – it’s like the opposite of sinkers and their large splits. Weaver’s platoon splits are essentially even, despite his whippy delivery that starts off well to the 3B side. Hanson’s splits are indeed lower so far than his career numbers, and perhaps a bit lower than you’d expect for a guy with Brandon Maurer’s pitch mix. But that’s not all great news – in this case, it’s just an indication that righties and lefties are both hitting well off him. He’s still got splits, and they should be regressed heavily, but this isn’t a match-up where trotting out a right-handed hitter is an unconscionable mistake. Ah, who are we kidding? The M’s are beat up right now and don’t really have the ability to trot out different line-ups even if they wanted to. Morse isn’t starting, but there are non-Hanson related reasons for that.

By FIP, he’s essentially been replacement level this season. But by ERA, he’s adjusting just fine, and having a comeback season. His ERA is over a full run lower than his FIP, thanks to a great strand rate, the highest of his career. With no one on base, he’s been absolutely atrocious, but with RISP, he’s…well, I don’t know if HE’S been great, but his BABIP has been extremely low. That looks like luck, but I do find it kind of odd that Joe Blanton shows the same pattern, as does Jason Vargas. I can almost hear an old-timey pitching coach yelling at his hurlers to “challenge” batters and “make the hitter beat you” with no one on, but poor CJ Wilson’s been brilliant with no one on and worse with runners on base (thankfully, he faced the Mariners last night).

DJ Peterson debuted in last night’s Everett win, but he went 0-3 with a walk.
The Rainiers play in Colorado Springs tonight with, uh, Hector Noesi getting the ball. Good luck, Rainiers, and good luck pedestrians of Colorado Springs.
Taijuan Walker starts for AA Jackson against Mobile, Anthony Vasquez continues his comeback with Clinton, and Lars Huijer starts for Everett.
The rookie-level Pulaski Mariners begin their season this evening against Burlington of the Royals org. 2012 3rd-round pick Edwin Diaz gets the opening night start.

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Comments

82 Responses to “Game 74, Mariner at Angels”

terryoftacoma on
June 20th, 2013 5:23 pm

Interesting platoon pattern Wedge has going. Wonder if he’ll keep it up through the weekend.

11records on
June 20th, 2013 6:25 pm

Hey Now. Guti is playing CF in Tacoma. For what that’s worth… It might mean that Michael Saunders better start performing? Honestly – when Guti is eligible to come off the DL things are going to be very, very interesting. What with Saunders struggling, Endy and Raul doing superficially well, and Ackley now playing the OF as well, and on a hitting tear… It’s going to be fascinating to see what the roster looks like July 1, let alone July 31.

californiamariner on
June 20th, 2013 6:45 pm

I wouldn’t plan on seeing much Guti the rest of the year. He’s probably getting traded.

G-Man on
June 20th, 2013 6:47 pm

So is Blanco now The King’s personal catcher? And is that why we took him and 86′ed Shoppach?

terryoftacoma on
June 20th, 2013 7:06 pm

I agree. Don’t look for Guti to come up any time soon. He will probably be traded to someone that needs a defensive outfielder and is willing to take a chance he’ll stay healthy.

msfanmike on
June 20th, 2013 7:15 pm

Hey, runs!!!

terryoftacoma on
June 20th, 2013 7:17 pm

I forgot what those looked like.

msfanmike on
June 20th, 2013 7:18 pm

With a dearth of OF talent, are the Mariners really going to be in a position to trade a ‘healthy’ Guti? Nobody is going to trade for him if he isn’t healthy.

And ‘healthy’ … Yeah, good one Mike! That’s likely to happen.

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 7:20 pm

Hits!

I actually have some confidence in those first three guys.

The rest, no so much.

californiamariner on
June 20th, 2013 7:21 pm

Taijuan Walker 12 k tonight. Bring the man to AAA!

terryoftacoma on
June 20th, 2013 7:24 pm

” He’s mostly healthy”. Says Miracle Max.

G-Man on
June 20th, 2013 7:25 pm

Darn would have been a DP without that steal.

msfanmike on
June 20th, 2013 7:33 pm

12k’s for Walker – that’s great! There have been some promotions lately (3 position players from high A to AA, recently) so I would expect there will be more to come. Walker to AAA seems almost like a no-brainer at this point but, Mariners.

msfanmike on
June 20th, 2013 7:46 pm

Brown held Seager at 3B – that was a but surprising. I hope it becomes a moot point.

G-Man on
June 20th, 2013 7:47 pm

WOO!

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 7:48 pm

Pitching like this against the Mariners is how pitchers get DFA’d.

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 7:49 pm

The Mariners found a defensive weak spot, Pujols.

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 7:56 pm

Felix doesn’t see this many runs in a month of starts.

terryoftacoma on
June 20th, 2013 8:00 pm

Ryan’s due.

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 8:01 pm

… For a fielder’s choice, RBI.

terryoftacoma on
June 20th, 2013 8:02 pm

Better than his usual K or pop up

juneau_fan on
June 20th, 2013 8:03 pm

I was watching MLB TV last night and they were calling this match up between Felix and Hanson one of the day’s games to watch. (apparently Hanson had a good start last time.)

Yeah, for M’s fans! Whoot!

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 8:04 pm

Wonder if the Angels would trade managers.

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 8:07 pm

At least the Angels have clean hair.

juneau_fan on
June 20th, 2013 8:14 pm

Well, poop.

Paul B on
June 20th, 2013 8:37 pm

Don’t put that on your hair!

What were you thinking!

juneau_fan on
June 20th, 2013 8:40 pm

There’s some pooping going on now…

juneau_fan on
June 20th, 2013 8:46 pm

At least there was some passion with that strikeout for Saunders. Usually he just turns away before the ball is even in the catcher’s glove.

Man, Smoak creamed that ball about as best he could and it only went to the track. That sucks.

Sideline observer on
June 20th, 2013 10:43 pm

at least you don’t have to watch Hamilton look like a pony league player.

Westside guy on
June 20th, 2013 10:45 pm

Ugh.

dang on
June 20th, 2013 10:56 pm

I got news for you terryoftacoma. The bullpen didn’t blow this game, the $25M pitcher did.

mrakbaseball on
June 20th, 2013 11:00 pm

Hey, at least Felix is glad the Heat won. He’ll sleep well tonight.

seasick on
June 20th, 2013 11:47 pm

What if this is as good as it gets?

smb on
June 21st, 2013 7:10 am

Yeah but the NBA sucks…at least without the Sonics it does.

Was bummed Peterson didn’t play for the AquaSox when I went on Tuesday…but Reinheimer was 2-2 with a couple great looking ABs before we left. Reggie Lawson looked great, too. That AquaSox squad is full of big boys who swing big sticks. If even a few of them pan out, our offense should look a lot better within 5 years or so.

jak924 on
June 21st, 2013 8:13 am

Just when you think things couldn’t get any worse…

sawsatch on
June 21st, 2013 8:47 am

This loss almost equals the 2001 loss to Cleveland. One big difference: this 2013 squad is on route to lose 92 games.

Will Lofton on
June 21st, 2013 9:17 am

Actually, this reminded me of the Cleveland game last season when Millwood was pitching at home ad we coughed up an eight run lead.

I’m so frustarated with this team right now I can’t even watch the games. I understand that Felix blew a huge lead yesterday, but he’s human and he’s still having a phenominal season. When is the bullpen going to wake up? It was supposed to be the stength of this team and now they can’t even hold down a lead for an inning or two. Beyond frustarating for a team that seldom scores more than three runs a night. Hate waisting a nine run performance.

sawsatch on
June 21st, 2013 9:29 am

The only way I’ll go to a game now is if they dump all of the veterans and bring up whatever youth they have in the minors. At least I’ll see some fresh faces.
Nothing against Bay, Morse, and Chavez, but I’ll only pay to see them if they’re on a contender. Otherwise they are not a compelling draw to the ball park.