The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17 – Week 5

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Saturday November 5, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney have flown the barriers winning four from four and are yet to concede a goal, which sets them up well for the “Big Blue” on Saturday night. Sydney are title favourites and it is hard to argue, however I need to caveat that claim with the fact they have ridden their luck at times and played teams that are 1st, 2nd and 4th favourites for the Spoon. So the market very much expected these wins.

Victory may have been played back to form thanks to an inept Wellington on Monday night. Their first two goals were from the penalty spot by which time the match was over as a contest and they eased to the win. They didn’t miss Carl Valeri last week but I think they will this week.

Key Statistics

Sydney have struggled at home in the last two seasons winning 10 of 28

Sydney have faced an average of just three shots on goal similar to last season and below the league average of 4.28.

Sydney have improved their quantity and quality of goal-scoring chances this season 5.75 shots on per game v four last season. 22% conversion rate v 15%

Victory have conceded 4.75 shots on per match v four last season

Prior to last week Victory had managed just 12 shots at goal (four per match v league average of 9.5) but converted 33% (league average 17%)

Betting Strategy

Melbourne don’t seem to be the team, at least attack wise, as they were last year but we still need to be circumspect of Sydney with such a poor home record. There is one clear standout bet however.

BACK – Under 2.5 goals at $2.1+ for 2 units

Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday November 6, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

I misread the Brisbane-Perth match last week in expecting Perth’s good start to the season to continue. They were below their best but not helped by injuries at crucial stages in the match. They will appreciate their return to Perth and other than a deficiency in the left side of defence, I think they are still travelling strongly.Western Sydney slumped to another poor home result last week, failing to put away the Mariners and succumbing to another defensive lapse to share the points. They did perform well away to Adelaide in their only other away match, albeit they were lucky to end with 11 players on the pitch and had plenty of favours that night.

Key Statistics

Perth have won 17 of their last 29 home matches losing just six

Perth have converted 21% of their total shots (league average 17%)

Perth have had 6.25 shots on goal per match, a clear top rank (league average 17%)

Western Sydney lost only four matches away last season

Western Sydney’s statistical numbers are similar to their numbers from last season except in the important shots faced category where they are conceding 1.5 more shots per match compared to last season