Tablets & Smartphones Expected to Surpass PCs in Sales

NEW YORK — This year, for the first time ever, cellphones will overtake PCs -- both notebooks and desktops -- as the largest electronic systems market and end-use application for integrated circuits, according to IC Insights.

Global production of electronics will grow from $1.41 trillion in 2013 to $1.74 trillion by 2017, according to the 2014 edition of IC Insights' IC Market Drivers report (subscription required.

Cellphones are projected to make up 18% or $247.2 billion of worldwide electronics sales this year; standard PCs will make up 15% or $208.3 billion. This is a major shift from last year, when cellphones made up 16% of the market and PCs made up 17%.

As for ICs, the report projects that cellphones will make up 24% of sales this year, versus 22% last year. PCs will make up 22% of the market this year, versus 25% last year. PC sales are expected to be more or less flat from 2012 to 2017, while the cellphone market is expected to grow 12.9%.

Among end-use markets, IC sales are projected to grow the most in wireless systems (17.9%), followed by tablets (15.3%).

On whole, IC Insights predicts that PC unit shipments will increase an average of 10.6% from 486 million in 2012 to 522 million in 2013 and reach about 770 million by 2017. However, combined desktop and notebook PC sales are projected to drop 8.7% to about 315 million in 2013 -- the biggest single-year decline in the PC market's history, topping a 4.5% tumble in 2001 in the midst of a recession.

The tablet market is going in the opposite direction. Unit shipments are expected to rise 73% from 117 million last year to 202 million this year. Laptops specifically designed for Internet and cloud computing are set to grow from 3.5 million units last year to 5.1 million this year.

PC shipments are projected to fall 0.3% from 345 million in 2012 to 340 million in 2017. Tablet shipments are projected to skyrocket 28.8 percent over the same period to 415 million. Internet and cloud computing laptops are expected to reach 15 million by 2017.

Internationally, China is expected to win the largest share of the market, with about 18% of overall computing system units. The US is expected to come in second (17%), followed by Europe (15%) and Japan (5%).

140 is the twitter limit today. 160 for SMS. I expect these will eventually increase, but there are also many other social media applications in use that have higher limits. I do get your point though. How do we educate the future leaders of the world when they are nose down in social media. They are very current on whatever is popular but that may not be the topics needed to guide the future.

As the portables (tablets and phones) become capable of performing most of the functions of the PC, it is only natural that they will take over the market. Very few applications used by most people require the PC. This is the natural evolution.

"Laptops have always been classified as PCs. Certain types of tablets, such as the Surface Pro, perhaps should also be classified as PCs."

Indeed, it's just a matter of how the categories are defined. When it is stated as "PC sales are declining and tablet sales are overtaking them" it sounds like news. But if it is stated as "computers keep getting smaller and more portable," then people will just say "yes, well duh!"

"Many tablets being sold have better displays and hardware than pcs. And many tablets are sold with keyboards.. Finally, are the touchscreen laptops being classified as tablets?"

That was exactly my reaction too. For some reason, the numbers keep getting adjusted to continue this storyline about "the decline in PC sales," even when PC sales aren't declining!

Laptops have always been classified as PCs. Certain types of tablets, such as the Surface Pro, perhaps should also be classified as PCs, because they were really designed to function as super sleek laptops, and to run the same apps as laptops.

He fixed it but would have added a comment below the article that the piece was updated. I think that is the journalist tradition. That helps people track changes in case someone has referred and quoted the article

Yes, this has been long expected despite the bullish wish of Mr. Michael Dell who still thinks the golden age of PC is not over. I am yet to see the reason why I will go to the market or store and buy a PC over a portable/mobile device.