Expanded sanctions against Iran won’t have much effect: expert

An expert on Iranian foreign policy says he doubts Canada’s expanded sanctions against Iran, announced Tuesday, will have the desired effect on the Islamic Republic’s secretive nuclear program.

James Devine, an international relations and foreign policy professor at Mount Allison University in New Brunswick, said he was surprised by Tuesday’s announcement. He said that given Canada’s limited trade relationship with Iran, any sanctions imposed are unlikely to have the desired impact.

In fact, Devine argued that many Western countries are not taking the right approach to encouraging nuclear talks with Iran.

“In a broader sense, the West in general has to deal with Iran both with a carrot and stick. There has to be some pressure on them and there have to be incentives. So you can argue that Canada’s step, whether it’s closing embassies, sanctions or whatever else they do, is part of that pressure,” said Devine.

“Despite intensive efforts by the international community to engage Iran on its nuclear program, the Iranian regime refuses to comply with its international obligations, co-operate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or enter into meaningful negotiations,” said Baird.

Devine said he believes the amendments may have been announced in reaction to President Barack Obama’s recent extension of the waivers of U.S. sanctions on more than 20 countries in exchange for an agreement to reduce imports of Iranian oil.

“You have a new round of sanctions coming in from the U.S., and in some ways it seems like Canada doesn’t want to let that pass without putting its two cents in as well,” said Devine. “We don’t want to be left out of it.”

According to a statement from Baird, the government has amended the Special Economic Measures (Iran) Regulations by adding an additional 98 entities with links to the Iranian regimes as targets for sanctions, which will increase pressure on Iran’s nuclear program. The amendments also will sanction the entire Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij parliamentary organization. In the past, only select members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were sanctioned.

But Devine said the Canadian government’s attempt to sanction the entire IRGC is unrealistic. According to Devine, the IRGC has widespread control of many Iranian institutions through foundations called ‘bonyads’. These charitable foundations ballooned after the revolution and now control upwards of 40 per cent of the country’s non-oil GDP, according to Devine.

“There could a corner store in somebody’s neighbourhood which is owned by one of these bonyads, which is owned by the Revolutionary Guard, which is then subject to these sanctions. So it’s hard to say how (the Canadian government is) going to enforce this,” he said.

Although Canada has taken the step of economically isolating the IRGC, Devine said he does not believe the government will list the group as a terrorist organization anytime soon. For years, Jewish advocacy organizations have pressured the Canadian government to add the group to its list of terrorist entities.

“Recognizing it as a terrorist organziaton is difficult, especially if you want to negotiate with Iran, because then you’re calling the government a terrorist organzation. It closes off opportunities for any sort of dialogue,” said Devine.

Public Safety Canada refused to comment on any organizations that may or may not be included in its list of recognized terrorist organizations, including the IRGC.

The expanded sanctions also target economic sectors with indirect ties to Iran’s nuclear program, including the oil, gas, mining, metals and shipping industries. The amendments come three months after Canada closed its embassy in Iran and expelled all Iranian diplomats from Canada in September.