Trumpageddon

Few midterm elections over the past cycles have been as watched as the one taking place Tuesday. You know why. The most unpredictable, iconoclastic US president ever has polarized society, ignited the economy, made deplorable prejudices mainstream, started a one-man trade war and bullied his way through two years of leadership. This is his referendum.

Even though the elections are for 435 members of Congress, 35 senators and 36 state governors, it’s all about Trump. He’s slashed corporate taxes, goosed company profits and dropped the jobless rate to a half-century low, leading to wage gains. His protectionism has rekindled manufacturing, but increased costs and encouraged the Fed to raise rates nine times. Trump’s growth-at-all-costs approach shot the stock market to record highs, but then his pissing match with China, galloping budget deficit and swelling interest rates brought a wave of selling.

As Trump now tries to divert attention to an ‘invasion’ of ragtag migrants hundreds of miles from the border, markets are focused on the election results. As I write this, 53% of Americans disapprove while 42% support him. But it’s only vote totals that count, making the outcome unpredictable. Sort of.

Here are the latest odds from Nate Silver’s web site, fivethirtyeight.com. If he’s correct, Democrats will regain control of the House from Republicans, while the Trump forces retain their dominance in the Senate.

What do the markets want? They’d prefer a Republican sweep of both chambers. That would ensure the Trumpian gas-the-economy agenda continues, perhaps with a middle-class tax chop, more cuts to costly regulations (especially environmental ones), big defence and homeland security spending and an America-first trade pact with the rest of the world.

The likelier outcome – a split House and Senate – would temper Trump’s power and influence, but still leave him relatively powerful. In that case, post-election market action may be a yawner, letting investors concentrate on corporate earnings, the Fed (no rate hike on Thursday, but one is coming mid-December) and economic indicators.

Meanwhile, have you been watching Warren Buffett? The world’s foremost stock picker shoveled money out the door in the last few weeks, buying up a storm ($13 billion) as the share prices of companies like Apple and Bank of America declined. He even spent almost a billion buying back stock in his own outfit, Berkshire Hathaway, as its value fell from $335,000 a share down to $296,000 – a 12% swoon – and folks fretted about Trump.

There’s a lesson here. But most people missed it. Ah well, maybe next October…

How miserable was last month for Toronto real estate? Numbers will be published very soon. Expect lower sales, rising inventory and sticky prices. Areas like York Region are still down 30% from their highs of last Spring, and things will eventually get much worse. 416 is hanging on to its leaves, so buyers should wait. The resale condo market, though, is heading into a funk, even as new developments are being flogged for $1,000 and even $1,500 per foot. Apparently we’re not out of greater fools just yet.

Other markets may provide a clue as to where the GTA is headed.

In Calgary, for example, sales of detached houses have hit the lowest level in two decades – down another 9% or so last month, at a mere 869 units. The benchmark price has plopped for the fifth consecutive month, off 3% year/year, and now sitting at $426,000. Unemployment in the city tops 8% and oil prices have dropped again. The differential between world prices and WCS – the stuff we dig up and sell – is unprecedented, and in part attributed to the fact we don’t have enough pipelines to ship through.

Maybe the feds should buy us one. Oh, wait…

In Vancouver deals have dropped to a six-year low. Last month it all went over a cliff. Home sales in total were down 35% year/year and ended up 23% lower than in September. As more and more families look to bail, inventory has hit a four-year high. While 1,966 properties sold in October, there are almost 13,000 more listed for sale – a 42% pop from last autumn. Nine in ten detached homes failed to sell, while only two in 10 available condos changed hands. Sucks to be a seller in YVR.

Victoria? Forget it. October was the 11th month in a row during which sales declined. Both detached houses and condos were hit equally. There is more to come. The combination of rising mortgage rates, the stress test and BC’s nutso ‘speculation’ tax on secondary/vacation/retirement properties is expected to seriously depress average prices.

All real estate is local. Every market differs. London is hot. Winnipeg’s in misery. Halifax has a little boom going. Edmonton just saw a one-month 4% price crash. But across the entire country we know the cost of money is rising, credit’s restricted and debt servicing loads are a burden. It’s the new normal.

161 comments ↓

God forbid we rely on 538.com
Some of the blogdogs here keep squawking about their incorrect 2016 presidential prediction….the 2016 poll numbers posted before the FBI decided at the last minute to “re-investigate” Hillary’s personal blackberry use….. a vote killer any way you slice it.

The insane left is in full tilt denial of their actions over the last 30 years. They choose to “read from a script” rather than think. The red wave is coming as a direct result of the insane left. THIS is why Trump was elected and the movement away from socialism is happening globally. NO socialist society has ever survived…..

Not a Trump supporter … but do agree with some of his policies…… i do believe he is going to win…. people call him a stupid lunatic… but his things suchbas his last UN speech indicates a vision and intelligence far beyond what folks give him credit for

Hard to know what might happen with the mid terms. But there might be a lesson in the election of 2016. The ‘sure thing’ ain’t always the ‘sure thing’. Just ask Hillary.
As outrageous as he is, I am not convinced that americans want to hand the keys back to the Democrats. Trump after all is the ‘devil they know’. Ask yourself if you would rather hear something you may not agree with or whether you preferred to hear something that you knew was a lie and meant to undermine your intelligence. Some of what comes out of Trumps mouth may be impolitic but there is sometimes a kernel of truth in it. Like any nation they do have the right to act in their own best interests. They have shouldered the burden and costs of rescuing other countries from one debacle after another. Maybe Godzilla just wants a time out to do some soul searching and think about its future? In many ways the arrival and presence of Trump is just that. I wouldn’t call it a moment of quiet contemplation, but it seems like an opportunity to reflect on the past, the present, the future. In which direction do they want to go, to lead? A good question for everyone.

There’s a lesson here. But most people missed it. Ah well, maybe next October…

—

Warren B’s money on Trump.

Where does Nate Silver put his money? Buy, sell or hold?

How did the GT managed balanced portfolio actually apply the lesson? Is it re-balanced with a Warren-like buying spree? If it is mostly invested, where is the cash coming from for the buying opportunity?

If people are lucky enough to still have a job, be thank-ful, but don’t get complacent because it could be gone tomorrow at the click of a pc mouse. Industries and business are currently going through the most profound technological and human capital changes throughout most of the world. Like the great one’s saying -skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been. Figure out ways that you can save money every week. Once the paycheques dwindle and start to dry up, you are going to need a nest egg to get through this. Always do what is best for you and yours.

So I’ve been tracking the monthly stats for detached houses offered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) for a while now. ‘

One interesting trend I’ve noticed relates to the monthly changes in the number of listings. Comparing the number of listings in March 2018 and April 2018, the number surged 42%, with the numbers of listings up significantly in areas like New West (+74%), North Van (+58%) PoCo and Port Moody up 55% each, etc.
Then…

April to May: listings up only 4%
May to June: listings down 15%
June to July: listings down 21%
July to August: listings down 15%

Looks like a downward trend, right? But then:
August to September: Listings UP 42%!
Listings up 167%(!!) in North Van, up 68% in Delta, up 56% in Burnaby, up 53% in New West, etc.

Then back down 14% from September to October.

So there definitely looks like there’s a regular surge of listings, happening on a 4-month basis.

Looks like lots of Zombie listings expiring after 90 days in one month, then getting re-listed again in the following month. Hard to tell for sure, since there’s no way to tell if large numbers of listings expire on the last day of the month, or no way to tell from these stats whether specific properties are being listed and re-listed regularly, but interesting nonetheless.

Personally I suspect that these are listings for properties that were listed as speculative investments, or as ‘holding vessels’ for foreign cash, where owners can keep re-listing, because they have no real need to sell, if they can’t get their listing prices.

Same as the election. 85% of Americans despise political correctness. That’s all you need to know. People are dishonest when polled, there is social cost if you are a trump supporter in a city or if you work for a globalist company. Naturally you are nutrual or will lie and say we all support the democrats. Once the curtain is drawn and no one is watching. That’s how sees going to roll.

By the way. The MSM is mostly responsible for the division and polarization.

Oh my look at all the moving trucks heading south at the border crossings across Canada. Turn out the lights. The party is over for Canada, we will always be the 51st State with our branch plant economy and stumble dumb leaders.

London is hot? Well after twenty years lagging other markets I guess we have it coming.

Anecdotally, my present gig has me working amoung the new $750k houses being built in the city. With no visible business growth and the lowest labour force participation in the country I wondered how people are doing it. One day a woman leaves one of these houses for work. Wearing a Canadian Tire store uniform. I have my answer. “By the skin on their teeth”

“Here are the latest odds from Nate Silver’s web site, fivethirtyeight.com. If he’s correct, Democrats will regain control of the House from Republicans, while the Trump forces retain their dominance in the Senate.”

Well, it looks like that website is correct about Trump winning the Senate, but wrong about Trump losing the House. Trump is a famous real estate investor. Trump does not lose houses. In fact, Trump gains skyscrapers. So, that website got only one out of two right. That is about like a coin toss.

Even some smoking, drunken, gambling, fiction writer could guess better than that.

The only way that Trump could ever possibly lose is if time has run out for the USA, and if it is time for the USA to be destroyed and to enter the dustbin of history. Rampaging hoards would illegally cross the southern border to plunder, loot, and pillage. Stoned Canadian potheads would stagger across the northern border to spread their bad habits. Men pretending to be women would flood into women’s washrooms and showers everywhere, and complain about being “bullied” if anyone tried to stop them. The rest of the world would go back to making unfair trade deals with the USA and taking advantage of it. The stock market would crash. American’s 401Ks would go to zero or thereabouts. Hundreds of billions of dollars would disappear into the black hole of Paris Climate Scams every year. Production of gas, oil, and coal would cease–especially production of all that good, clean coal. Blackest darkness would encompass the whole land. Bad people who hate America would gloat over its downfall.

Therefore, be it resolved that unless you have some sort of financial, physical, moral, and spiritual death wish, there really is only one logical choice for Americans: VOTE TRUMP.

Hopefully the election results will have some honesty to them unlike November 2016 when Hillary was railroaded and likely was a clear cut winner in the voting. I hope this isn’t another rigged election like everything else in America since Trump got it.

So the guy/company (owned by ABC News Internet Ventures), who didn’t accurately predict Trump winning the presidential election (see below) is who people are using as the expert to determine the outcome of the midterm elections.

Kellyanne Conway would be the best person to ask who is going to win, but since she’s in the White House now and has sold her polling company, we will just have to wait to see who was right.

My guess is GOP keep the senate and house and Democrats blame Russia for not winning the house. This will cause mass hysteria in the DNC, pushing more Democrats to become Democratic Socialists separating the views between left and right wing candidates even more.

The problem with the Democrats is they still can’t admit that the Obama administration did not fix the economy and heal the scars left from the 2008-2014 Financial Crisis. Those dark times are still fresh on the minds of Democrats many of whom may hate Trump but can appreciate his persistent attempts to put America First and create well-paying jobs at home.

When the Democrats stop blaming Russia for their failures as well as stop trying to prove to the world they are not as morally corrupt as Republicans and go back to debating the issues challenging the decreasing middle-class in America, and the increasing wealth gap between the poor and rich, they will start winning elections again.

#32 SimplyPut7 on 11.04.18 at 5:45 pm
The problem with the Democrats is they still can’t admit that the Obama administration did not fix the economy and heal the scars left from the 2008-2014 Financial Crisis.

What the heck? Trump is riding the wave of the late stages on the economic cycle. The economy was already well on its feet by the time Obama left office. The actions coordinated between the Treasury and Fed staved off financial Armageddon. Get a grip.

My opinion: Trump’s heart is in his country, the U.S.A., and bringing jobs back to the people, the taxpayers. Two thumbs up for that! What about Green Energy and making the U.S. #1 on the list?

As for the other news I put it in the background as noise. Most of us will be watching the news on Tuesday.

As for the migrants fleeing their dysfunction country in droves as their basic needs are not met I think it is time for those leaders be held accountable. Maybe start charging these countries. Wake up call for them. Something has to be done to correct the problem.

“There’s a lesson here. But most people missed it. Ah well, maybe next October” — Garth

“Never bet against America”? Or the ole’ “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”?

In any case, the Trump effect seems to be withering, and if Democrats win then maybe even slower growth lies ahead? RE values here are declining thanks to reasons documented on this blog. Well then, what do we have to look forward to?

Well Bolg Dogs, I’m betting 4-5%. 2016 and 2017 may have been 10% plus years, but this year looks like a 0 and 2019 is not lining up to be a banner year either. Average it out.

Not too sure there are many of lessons from buffet for the average investor, at least none that would be popular around here. For instance he has been holding as much as 33 percent cash since 2016. He had to draw down the cash position at some point. He also suggests that the average investor should just buy an SP500 etf.

Much different then staying fully invested in globally balanced etfs.

Not challenging the advice given by the blog, I’m a convert. But he is playing a different game.

I know you hate GIC’s but would you try to get over that for a moment and predict where the rates on a blue chip ie. Royal Bank 5 year GIC will go by the end of 2019. They are presently around 3.25 %. Thanks.

“#30 Tony on 11.04.18 at 5:42 pm
Hopefully the election results will have some honesty to them unlike November 2016 when Hillary was railroaded and likely was a clear cut winner in the voting. I hope this isn’t another rigged election like everything else in America since Trump got it.”
====================================

LMFAO.. Hillary Clinton forgot that there are 48 other states, besides California and New York…

Perhaps you should talk to some Americans to find out why they voted for President Trump.

For all those mocking Nate Silver, he has the best record over the past decade, including 2016- he came within 2% of the popular vote totals, gave Trump the highest odds of winning, and correctly identified Hillary’s weakness in the Rust Belt states that Trump won by 33,000 votes and less than 1%.

As of this afternoon Mr 538 is hedging his bets….he knows what’s coming, just can’t say it…..

“Either party winning the house is extremely possible”

…….bahahaha…

The 3 Twitter pollsters I follow…who absolutely nailed 2016, are all saying the same thing, GOP gains 4-6 Senate seats, and holds the House. All based on looking at early voting results against historical results and known voting day patterns…..NOT phone polling which is wildly inaccurate.

Let’s not forget about the 10% of the US voters who are “Shy Trump” voters. The segment showed up in 2016 and made mincemeat of Silver’s (and everyone else’s) predictions.

I’ll go out on a limb and call 58 -42 Republican in the Senate and that the House stays Red, by a comfortable margin with a 85% chance that the Republicans win more seats than they have now.

Pollsters learned nothing and keep asking the same poor questions. One thing i’d like to know is how many declared Democrats will #Walkaway. The pollsters assume because a card carrying Democrat voted, that the vote will be for a Democrat. I’m thinking a surprise is in the wind.

I don’t see Trump being reined in even if Democrats ‘win’ the House majority. No doubt he’ll call any Democrat victory ‘fake news’.

The increase of property for sale on the coast is hardly surprising. I’d bet a lot of those properties fall into the newly taxed class of secondary or absentee owner. So folks will want to offload that property asap & avoid handing over large chunks of cash to a government that has effectively punished them for being successful. As for price reductions, even if prices fall by half the majority of potential buyers still won’t qualify for a mortgage. A lose-lose situation.

Wonder if the election outcome will dictate where google goes next? Got a phone call tonight from a pollster from Florida asking about my awareness of the Toronto waterfront project. Thought it was mom so I answered. They asked about my opinion of environmental/ economic/ housing impact as well as political of all things. I thought Atlanta or Boston was a done deal but with the election looming I thought it was weird timing ..that and too many questions about Google to brush it aside. Anyone else get that call? Google knows something we don’t? Lol, probably.

When a Globalist gets his dander up about a Nationalist. LOL! “The most unpredictable, iconoclastic US president ever has polarized society, ignited the economy, made deplorable prejudices mainstream, started a one-man trade war and bullied his way through two years of leadership. This is his referendum.” You seethe with left wing resentment about Trump being elected. It really is quite pathetic. Nationalism will triumph versus the false song of Globalism. Invest accordingly.

There are a lot of GTA homes for sale with prices that don’t make sense. They don’t even care that nothing in that area has sold for that price ever. Speculators don’t know how to stop. In some areas they are still building homes that stay vacant, that try to sell once the home is complete knowing there is not a market anymore for that type of home.

You would think, someone on the project would try to cut their losses and move on, but no one has the guts to say it’s time to call it quits.

Garth I see where you got your 11% plop figure from – it was the West Vancouver home price index. Not The actual number of sales.
Looks like neighbourhood sales were 36 compared to 29 last year. Wo-hoo. – Garth

My gut feeling based casual observation is that the dems get a small gain but repubs maintain.

Trump is Trump and there truly is a better choice for POTUS out there…but Trump has delivered ( its all about perception). Tax cuts for corps and he is conveniently mulling over a middle class tax cut.

He has stirred things up at the very least and the silent majority may be happy with the turbulence good or bad. Change is happening under Trump for better or worse but it is happening. Now all the US needs to do is to start running better candidates.

I’m with Smoking Man on this bet. Not too many people have been objecting to his trade wars as of yet.

Millennials are a smart…no way are they going to pay $1.3M price for a fixer upper. Many single family homes are in rough shape here because owners can’t afford to maintain their homes as it’s expensive to do so. When will homes come down to $200-300k max? That’s the most millennials want to pay. They want affordable homes not a one asset headache!

I’m trying to think of it as win-win for me.
I think Trump is a terrible human being and that the world is worse off with Republican policies, but….most of my portfolio is in US companies, and the market likes him.

I mean… obviously I want a fatter retirement, but I also wouldn’t mind if companies kept some environmental regulations…

-=jwk=- on 11.04.18 at 7:41 pm
LMFAO.. Hillary Clinton forgot that there are 48 other states, besides California and New York…

She would be president if the FBI hadn’t announced a ‘new’ investigation into her emails 2 days before the election. And then, the day after the election announced the ‘all clear’….

>>>>>>

The presidential election was absolutely rigged. By the Democrats. There was district after district that had “the same exact” voting results. And of course the main Yet Trump still won. Why? Because the riggers knew that if they went too far it would be plainly obvious.

16.4 million blacks voted in 2016. Trump took 8% of the vote with a 16% approval rating among blacks, or 1.31 million votes.

Today his approval rating among blacks is 40% or 2.5X higher. If the ratios hold, Trump should take a 24% X 16.4 million or 4 million black votes. These will come at the expense of the Democrats for a total swing of 5.4 million votes, or roughly twice as many votes as what Hillary claims she won the popular vote by.

And we won’t even talk about the swing among Hispanics who actually approve of Trumps immigration policies.

the election results are irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what happens, Trump declares massive victory, huge gains, adoring voters love him etc. He could lose house, senate, and every governors race and still declare victory. and his supporters would believe him. just like they believe they got a tax cut.

As you may know, on October 9, 2018 an Enbridge-owned natural gas transmission pipeline ruptured near Prince George, BC. Given Enbridge’s pipelines provide the majority of FortisBC’s natural gas, this has had an immediate impact on our natural gas system. Your support and positive efforts to reduce your use of natural gas during this time is immensely appreciated.
This week, Enbridge reported that it has completed repairs on their pipeline, which is now being returned to service. However, it’s important to note that Enbridge plans to operate their transmission system at a reduced capacity for the next number of months, with flows of natural gas expected to only be between 55 and 80 per cent of its normal capacity. While completion of the repairs is a positive step, the reduced capacity reported by Enbridge means natural gas supply will still be limited. As we head into colder weather, we ask that our customers continue to focus on their conservation measures to help ensure a sufficient supply of natural gas is available for customers over the winter.

Holy crap.
This is wonderful news! Herb and Smoking man are both still alive–I believe they were touring around Vegas together in a convertible with a bag of mescaline, a bottle of JD and a cylinder of nitrous oxide.

@reynolds531, post #24:
I think part of what’s driving the market in London is smart retired people who sold their house in the GTA, cashing in that winning lottery ticket, and buying a much cheaper house here.

Trump is bad, but thankfully an intellectual Pygmy. He made a name for himself by being the son of a rich man and then evading taxes on his inheritance. Without that, he’d probably be selling vacuums door to door, or homeless, mumbling to himself about Obama being Kenyan and people would – rightfully – ignore his rantings.

But instead he’s parlayed his ego-inflating self-promotion skills learned from reality TV into the Oval Office. But even with all the powers of the presidency at his fingertips, he’d prefer to spend his time binge watching Fox News and chugging diet cokes, so he can see what people on the boob tube are saying about him. And if anyone says something bad about him, he can’t help but lash out in the twitters like a junior high drama queen. Maybe that’s too harsh…to the drama queens. He has the emotional stability and instincts of a toddler. Truly, a whiny little b*tch.

Meanwhile, his own hand-picked cabinet is keeping him away from implementing his most outrageous/dangerous policies, subverting his worst instincts. Such a stable genius!

If this has triggered any of you MAGA types, well suck it up snowflakes. Free speech is grand ain’t it?

With that rant aside, what worries me is the thought of a
charismatic and *competent* populist. The GOP has shown that it is fine giving up any semblance of reasoned policy if the alternative is getting primaried. They’re scared shitless of the trumpalos. So if somebody who can keep his or her sh*t together enough not to tweet and rant at the drop of a hat gets in, that will be when the sh*t really hits the fan. At which point, god help us all.

People of BC are we not taking rhis specuvesting bit to far, camping out for 30k bottle of single malt. Hint you cant live in a bottle unles you are indentifaing you self as a genie. Luckily for us all that is an option now.

Hey you drahma bum you in Texas now? Here is a excellent single malt that doesn’t involve camping on parking lot and taking a 2nd mortgage, balcones texas single malt. I keep 90 us im my wallet for just in case if i cam across when i go to visit uncle in buffalo, so far no luck.

Give it a rest. They had Trump with a 30% chance of winning (by my recollection), which was leagues higher than any other prediction site. On the popular vote they were bang on but they missed a few tiny shifts in a couple key states in the last few days that swung the electoral college to Trump.

I’ve been following 538 since the 2008 election and it’s usually very accurate.

Buffet is anticipating a suckers rally into December/January which will form the second shoulder in the massive Head & Shoulders pattern building on the S&P and Dow. The positions he has recently taken will be sold in a few months to retail bagholders.

It will be a Blue house and barely Red Senate. “We are in crazy town” will take on a whole new meaning. America will wobble over the next 6 months, and some States will consider joining Canada.
Trump will take stupid to a new level. Worst President ever.

“Most unpredictable”, “iconoclastic”? I beg to differ with the current fart wave of a desperate Democrat media. But didn’t Abraham Lincoln start a war that tore a country apart and killed millions? Let’s all remember who’s side the media is on currently. Which do you watch and listen to. Likely your choice of media decides your politics, not your own research. Without the bloviating leftist hyperbole Trump would be described as a great president working diligently and effectively for the American people as a leader should. Canadians should hope to have a real leader some day.

100 conan on 11.05.18 at 5:23 am
It will be a Blue house and barely Red Senate. “We are in crazy town” will take on a whole new meaning. America will wobble over the next 6 months, and some States will consider joining Canada.
Trump will take stupid to a new level. Worst President ever.
….

Just admit it, your source of info is confined to The Toronto Star and CNN.

Are you not afraid of using a masculine name like conan will get you on the feminazi shit list?

#101 Media Mania on 11.05.18 at 6:56 am
“[…] [Under other circumstances] Trump would be described as a great president working diligently and effectively for the American people as a leader should.[…]”

LONDON (Reuters) – Market volatility, a stronger U.S. dollar and higher yields for long-term bonds are signs that markets are becoming more normal, rather than an indication of trouble, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Monday.

Poloz, speaking to a business audience in London, pushed back against critics who complain that economic forecasts – including those from the Canadian central bank – are too optimistic.

As banks start to withdraw a decade’s worth of stimulus, long-term bond yields are rising, equity markets are returning to a more normal level of volatility and the U.S. dollar is strengthening to reflect the booming American economy, he said.

“These characteristics do not point to a gloomy economic outlook by any means – rather, they are welcome symptoms of normalization,” Poloz said in his prepared remarks.

TREB October stats out. So when will this “slow melt” begin? Aside from York Region, and aside from March/April/May 2017 detached purchases in the rest of the GTA, the ice cream cone is still rock solid (to butcher the “melt” metaphor) 18 months later.

Chris Wallace on Fox had an interesting view on Trump last night. He said that he doubts that a lot of Republicans who showed up to see Trump at rallies will actually vote Republican in the election as Trump is not on the ticket. He cites the ineffectiveness of Obama, Clinton or Bush to help their own parties in their respective mid-term elections.

The thing he misses is that Trump is very much on the ballot. After the “Inter-galactic Circus” that the Democrats created over Kavanaugh and their constant threats to “Resist” and “Impeach” Trump, every Republican knows that they must turn out and vote to protect Trump.

Trump is in jeopardy, clear and simple. None of the other presidents were. Huge difference and the early voter turnout numbers are showing a Republican wave as voters show up to help Trump.

My wife and I will be casting our overseas ballots today. Our IRA portfolio was over 7% with Obama and higher with Trump but that is not the only factor affecting our votes. Health care is the number one issue. The Canadian healthcare system has worked for our family for close to 50 years now. The US needs a similar system of universal health care. You can’t trust the Republicans to deliver that. Health care should never be only for the rich. Obamacare is not perfect but it is a start and the US only has to look at the successes and faults of our Canadian system to make theirs better.

@ 101
But didn’t Abraham Lincoln start a war that tore a country apart and killed millions?

You’re exaggerating. Most historians claim that between 620,000-750,000 soldiers died while deployed. Figures for those who died collaterally, whether civilians or other non-combatants seem not to be available. But let’s say another million; hardly the “millions” that you cite in your post.

Conservatives are sick and tired of being labeled racists, bigots, and Hitler lovers by the unhinged left. We are taking a stand. Most decent people see through the leftist media and this is why Republicans will keep both the senate and the house on Tuesday 6th and then the red wave will move north to Canada in 2019. NDP and Liberals will fall.

Fox News and every single whacked out right-wing radio talk show, podcast, or TV show has turned into a 24/7 campaign machine for Trump and the Republicans.
They are aggressively showcasing candidates from all states, running for a multiplicity of positions, and virtually ordering their disciples to get off their fat, lazy, beer guzzling, gun toting arses, and get out their and vote Republican.
This may have a significant impact on the election results.

Average high of 27 degrees celsius for the next week or so, down here in southern AZ.

#117 Frank The Tank on 11.05.18 at 10:29 am
“No matter who wins the house or senate, or who wins the next Presidential election … or who wins the next Federal election in Canada … people are going to be severely divided.
There is no end in sight for all this. We all lose.”

2608 W. 11th is still active on Realtor.ca/MLS as the sold data has not been entered into Paragon yet(the back end of MLS in Vancouver). It can take a day or two for the data to come through. Shortly after it is entered you can get on http://www.zealty.ca/map

Note, on our desk top map if you click “solds” and then “show solds only” on the drop down menu, you can just look at sold listings for the last 7 days or whichever length of time you choose up to a year.

In Vancouver we also have assessed values and on sold properties we calculate the ratio of the sold price to the assessed value. Most detached homes on the West side that are selling are now selling below assessed value. An example which sold 8% below assessed:

#117 Frank The Tank on 11.05.18 at 10:29 am
“No matter who wins the house or senate, or who wins the next Presidential election … or who wins the next Federal election in Canada … people are going to be severely divided.
There is no end in sight for all this. We all lose.”

#122 dharma bum on 11.05.18 at 10:53 am
“Fox News and every single whacked out right-wing radio talk show, podcast, or TV show has turned into a 24/7 campaign machine for Trump and the Republicans.
They are aggressively showcasing candidates from all states, running for a multiplicity of positions, and virtually ordering their disciples to get off their fat, lazy, beer guzzling, gun toting arses, and get out their and vote Republican.
This may have a significant impact on the election results.
Average high of 27 degrees celsius for the next week or so, down here in southern AZ.
Lotsa deplorables in this neck of the woods.”
====================================

And CNN, along with MSNBC are also encouraging voters to vote Republican, without realizing it …LOL..

Fox News and every single whacked out right-wing radio talk show, podcast, or TV show has turned into a 24/7 campaign machine for Trump and the Republicans.
They are aggressively showcasing candidates from all states, running for a multiplicity of positions, and virtually ordering their disciples to get off their fat, lazy, beer guzzling, gun toting arses, and get out their and vote Republican.
This may have a significant impact on the election results.

Average high of 27 degrees celsius for the next week or so, down here in southern AZ.

Lotsa deplorables in this neck of the woods.
——————————–

Not sure if you’re serious, but it’s comments like this that fuel our hatred of lib**rds… If you want to keep the Marxist agenda alive, the best thing you can do is shut your mouth.

I see a lot of Trump-hatred here; it amuses me (if you care). Myself, I don’t have much use for him; but he’s a FAR, FAR better Pres than Hillary would’ve been. I point-out two facts of the 2016 election:

1) A single one of Hillary’s e-mails, sent by anybody else, would’ve put him in jail for 8 years – so why isn’t she? “Delete the caveat and send it UNCLAS”, she said. Germany lost WW1, significantly because of a single mishandled message, and lost WW2 because Britain penetrated their communications; and Japan lost because the Americans broke their cypher machine and read Yamamoto’s op plan for the Midway battle, leaving the IJN wide-open for an ambush-in-detail. Security matters, a lot – which is why the penalties are so stiff – and Hillary has showed many times how little she cares about security, or the law.

2) Trump won via the Electoral College, leading predictably to calls for its abolition. Remember Trudeau’s promise to get rid of first-past-the-post? Right up until he won by it? The Electoral College vote serves a vital purpose – it parcels-out “Rep by Pop” and ensures that in a country with YUUUGE population concentrations in a few small areas, the backwoods will be heard as well. The population centres voted almost exclusively for Hillary – but Trump won, helped along the way by all the Democrat voters who didn’t bother showing-up to vote; “Aww, she’ll win by a LANDSLIDE, why bother?” That’s the only unanimous voter bloc in the entire U.S. – 100% of them voted for Trump.

Only thing I can say with near-certainty about the election tonight is that no matter the result, the sun will rise tomorrow – and unlike many, many other unregistered’s, I’m not in the ‘States and I won’t be voting; so I can’t influence the outcome at all.

Lowe’s Canadian business has more than 630 corporate and independent affiliate dealer stores. It includes Lowe’s, Rona, Reno-Depot, Dick’s Lumber, Contractor First and Ace.

The company has more than 28,000 employees in Canada, in addition to nearly 5,000 employees in Rona’s independent affiliate dealer stores.

The union representing 260 Rona employees in Newfoundland and Labrador were notified of the closures and handed severance letters on Sunday evening, according to the Atlantic Canada Regional Council of Carpenters, Millwrights and Allied Workers (ACRC). The Rona workers in Newfoundland were told that effective Jan. 27, 2019, they would no longer be employed and Rona will close.

“We are shocked by this news and we are equally shocked at the insensitive and disrespectful manner in which these employees were told this news,” Debbie Romero, executive secretary treasurer of ACRC, said in an emailed statement. “This is a significant economic blow to hundreds of people and to the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador. Our members, the employees of RONA and the people of Newfoundland and Labrador deserve better from Lowe’s.”

Romero added that the union plans to request an urgent meeting with Lowe’s.

OTTAWA — The governor of the Bank of Canada says after a decade of low-interest rates around the world the global economy has reached stronger footing where stimulus can be “steadily withdrawn.”

Stephen Poloz’s remarks Monday came as the Bank of Canada signals it will gradually raise its benchmark interest rate from its current level of 1.75 per cent to a so-called neutral stance of somewhere between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent. The big question is how quickly the rate will rise.

Poloz recently introduced the central bank’s fifth interest rate hike in 15 months and warned Canadians, many of whom are carrying high levels of debt, to get used to the idea of three per cent interest rates as the new normal.

@#129 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.05.18 at 11:46 am
#122 dharma bum on 11.05.18 at 10:53 am

Fox News and every single whacked out right-wing radio talk show, podcast, or TV show has turned into a 24/7 campaign machine for Trump and the Republicans.
They are aggressively showcasing candidates from all states, running for a multiplicity of positions, and virtually ordering their disciples to get off their fat, lazy, beer guzzling, gun toting arses, and get out their and vote Republican.
This may have a significant impact on the election results.

Average high of 27 degrees celsius for the next week or so, down here in southern AZ.

Lotsa deplorables in this neck of the woods.
——————————–

Not sure if you’re serious, but it’s comments like this that fuel our hatred of lib**rds… If you want to keep the Marxist agenda alive, the best thing you can do is shut your mouth.
_______________________________

LOL, you’re unhinged huh.
Take a deep breath and don’t go on a shooting spree.

@#117 Frank The Tank on 11.05.18 at 10:29 am
No matter who wins the house or senate, or who wins the next Presidential election … or who wins the next Federal election in Canada … people are going to be severely divided.

There is no end in sight for all this. We all lose.

Best comment so far on this thread. – Garth
__________________________________

Meh, twas ever thus in America.
Politics is a team sport down there. you’re either red or blue. even if your team is in the wrong, you never betray your team. A little education would help with this. Things aren’t as polarized in Canada. Although the vocal minority on comments sections like this would have you believe otherwise lol

@#120 Smoking Man on 11.05.18 at 10:41 am
The ugly head of a one world globalist communist agenda will be chopped off Tuesday night. Not even rabid dog’s will want a taste of that decomposing immoral corps.

I want to personally thank the basket of deplorables for saving the USA and the rest of the western world.

@#129 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.05.18 at 11:46 am
#122 dharma bum on 11.05.18 at 10:53 am

Fox News and every single whacked out right-wing radio talk show, podcast, or TV show has turned into a 24/7 campaign machine for Trump and the Republicans.
They are aggressively showcasing candidates from all states, running for a multiplicity of positions, and virtually ordering their disciples to get off their fat, lazy, beer guzzling, gun toting arses, and get out their and vote Republican.
This may have a significant impact on the election results.

Average high of 27 degrees celsius for the next week or so, down here in southern AZ.

Lotsa deplorables in this neck of the woods.
——————————–

Not sure if you’re serious, but it’s comments like this that fuel our hatred of lib**rds… If you want to keep the Marxist agenda alive, the best thing you can do is shut your mouth.
_______________________________

LOL, you’re unhinged huh.
Take a deep breath and don’t go on a shooting spree.
—————————————-

Naw, just amazed that leftists don’t understand that the BS they spew only undermines their cause.

Toronto is essentially tied with Vancouver for second last place. Second lowest MHI of all major cities in the entire country.

It’s interesting to see that the big cities are heading in this direction where they keep making less, and paying more. I’ll bet if we had stats on debt per city, you’d also see that the same folks living in these big cities also own most of the debt too.

The GTA undoubtedly has more “economic households” (more than two earners) than any other city embedded into their MHI too – which is pretty scary to think of when you see that fact still landing them second from the bottom.

I think we can officially stick a fork in the idea that the typical schmo can expect to make more by moving to a big city – looks more like the other way around. Plus you’ll have to pay double the price, for half the accommodation.

This will carry on into the future as well. Higher costs, lower wages, less good full time jobs too. 10 years from now could see some pretty squalid living conditions in the GTA.

Both are absolutely delusional and I have now to double down on my prediction of at least 70 % drop in prices in GTA and Vancouver combined with a decade and a half of absolute misery and economic hardship.

If this government stays in power, credit will dry out and deficit easily triple.

So many statistics illiterates. A 1 in 5 chance doesn’t mean a 0 in 5 chance. Alos, a 6 in 7 chance doesn’t mean a 7 in 7 chance either. People should learn that chances are seldom certainties. And polls are samples on the population and not the whole population.

RE#25
“Therefore, be it resolved that unless you have some sort of financial, physical, moral, and spiritual death wish, there really is only one logical choice for Americans: VOTE TRUMP.”

Trump getting elected in 2016 was a miracle that stopped Hillary and a nuclear war with Russia for
a while. In the US and its allies the media , governments and world of finance is still owned and dominated by leftists and globalist oligarchs. These are the creatures that won’t allow proper law, order and good government. They operate above the law and commit crimes, terrorism and instigate wars. They undermine public morality and they prefer a world without Christianity and European humanity. They and not the voter decide what shall and shall not be. Trump could only be a liberator of his country if he had them all rounded up and punished for their offences in 2017. He has not done that yet and he remains at risk of obstruction, irrelevance and assassination. If he survives his first or second term in office I would think he will be a most frustrated and broken man if the establishment survives his presidency.

I feel sorry for you. Get some help. Get out of the house. Go meet real people. – Garth

“Naw, just amazed that leftists don’t understand that the BS they spew only undermines their cause.”

– YEP!!! Buncha’ people going to get-out and vote Trump tonight, because of what the Left tried to do to Kavanaugh; and BLM and AntiFA ain’t helping the Dem’s either. Blowing a five-alarm spaz because you lost, doesn’t help the leftist cause; it merely reinforces in the minds of those who didn’t drink the Kool-Aid, why keeping the Reds out of power still matters.

#130 Y. Knott on 11.05.18 at 11:56 amTrump won, helped along the way by all the Democrat voters who didn’t bother showing-up to vote; “Aww, she’ll win by a LANDSLIDE, why bother?” That’s the only unanimous voter bloc in the entire U.S. – 100% of them voted for Trump.
*******************************
There was another very significant group that elected Trump- All of the 3rd party votes. iirc there were several spots where Trump won by less than those votes.
Michigan: Trump wins by 47.3 to 47.3 and Gary gets 3%
Florida: Trump wins by 1.2%, Gary had 2.2%
Wisconsin: Trump wins by 0.7%, Gary had 3.6%
Pennsylvania: Trump wins by 0.7%, Gary got 2.4%

7 states for 101 Electoral college votes were won by Trump with under 50% of the votes.

It could be argued that millions of people who thought that they voted “none of the above” actually voted for Trump

“Miguel Carter, a Paraguayan development expert, suggested that by negotiating a fairer price for its energy, Paraguay could better fund hospitals and schools and resurrect Paraguay’s rusting railways.

According to Carter’s calculations, Paraguay was outgunned by Brazil in negotiating the 1973 Itaipú treaty – signed between two dictatorships – and cheated out of an astonishing $57.7bn in lost income.

In 1979, Brazil’s military regime murdered its ambassador to Paraguay to prevent him from revealing the billions of dollars of kickbacks involved in Itaipú’s construction, it was officially confirmed in October.

“When I saw the numbers I burst into tears,” Carter told the Guardian. “I know of so many stories of Paraguayans going to hospital and losing their loved ones … there would have been lives saved, kids with a decent education. You could have had a different country.”

More Zero crap. Bloomberg reports: “U.S. stocks climbed, with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. powering gains in the S&P 500 Index. Treasury yields edged lower. The U.S. conglomerate rose the most since July after the world’s most famous stock-picker revealed he’d been buying back his firm’s own shares. Investors were also hunting bargains after last month’s downtown.” – Garth

Regardless of outcome, the sheer hatred that is being expressed between opposing political camps will not be resolved until the economy supports everyone, equally. If I were an economically dispossessed, under-employed American, I would be voting Rep. out of spite. It would be a meaningless, counter-productive act but when people are repeatedly kicked in teeth while trying to stay afloat in the cannibalistic global economy, don’t be surprised when their response is disproportionate. I see this getting much worse before any meaningful change occurs. Corporations are getting too big, and wield too much political power; they’re not going to relinquish it willingly. Canada isn’t so special, but we have dodged the worst political excesses seen to our south.

#103 Smoking Man on 11.05.18 at 8:45 am
100 conan on 11.05.18 at 5:23 am
It will be a Blue house and barely Red Senate. “We are in crazy town” will take on a whole new meaning. America will wobble over the next 6 months, and some States will consider joining Canada.
Trump will take stupid to a new level. Worst President ever.
…………………………….
Just admit it, your source of info is confined to The Toronto Star and CNN.
Are you not afraid of using a masculine name like conan will get you on the feminazi shit list?
__________________________________________
Wow great rebuttal Old Man, super creative using incongruity in your difference of opinion.
Whether or not you believe it Trump was riding on Obama’s coattails when he came into power you simpleton. He has perpetuated the slew rate that was already in place. Any idiot know this is a fact.
If Trump can do anything at all it is that he can simply F#%k it up by keeping his yapper flapping in the wind. Red or Blue the USA is no longer the country I used to regard as a citadel in democracy.

#142 StinkingFeet on 11.05.18 at 1:50 pm
“So many statistics illiterates. A 1 in 5 chance doesn’t mean a 0 in 5 chance. Al[so], a 6 in 7 chance doesn’t mean a 7 in 7 chance either. People should learn that chances are seldom certainties. And polls are samples on the population and not the whole population.” Correct—but, after the poll tomorrow, we should have the population parameter, not just a sample statistic. :)

I feel sorry for you. Get some help. Get out of the house. Go meet real people. – Garth

Never owned a house and can’t rent or buy one. I sleep in my car. Living in Canada and putting up with crazy leftists is above my pay grade with or with out a job. Garth how about it if you set side your wealth, income and property and live in your car and eat at the Sally Anne for 3 to 5 years and then tell us all about it. Better yet try it out with a part time or a variable hour non union manual labour job at market wage rates (minimum wage). Remember no cheating.

News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2016 – Pew Research Report
“A majority of U.S. adults – 62% – get news on social media, and 18% do so often…Two-thirds of Facebook users (66%) get news on the site.”

Garth’s Instagram Posts

The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.