Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Foot of Snow Not Out Of The Question by Tuesday

43 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.46 F. average high on November 8.47 F. high on November 8, 2013.

No snow reported at MSP International Airport as of November 8.

November 8 in Minnesota Weather History:

2003:
Parts of west central and north central Minnesota received anywhere
from 2 to 6 inches of new snow. Canby had the most at 6 inches and
Benson measured 5 inches.1977: A foot of snow falls in Western Minnesota. I-94 is tied up.1850: The sky darkened at Ft. Snelling due to prairie fires.

Novemb-uary

I
just staked my driveway, checked the inflation of my tires, threw an
ice-scraper in the trunk. Here we go. September was pleasant, much of
October was a dream. Now we skip 2 months and head right to January.

Sadly,
I'm not exaggerating. The next two weeks will run 20-30F colder than
average: a giant ice cream scoop of polar pain making a few passes at
the USA - each jolt of cold air spinning up a new storm.

And the
rumors are true: it's going to snow tomorrow. The air and ground will be
cold enough for that snow to stick. Traffic may be a mess by afternoon.
A plowable snowfall is likely; my concern is will it be 5 inches, or
closer to a foot? A wave of low pressure passes south of Minnesota,
throwing up a long-duration shield of light to moderate snow Monday
morning into Tuesday morning.

Models consistently show an enhanced
band of heavier snow with 6 to 12 inch snowfall totals possible over
central Minnesota, even in the MSP metro. The first snow of the season
is always memorable; this one should be a doozy.

Highs in the 20s,
even a subzero low by next week? The maps do look bitter for the
eastern USA, vaguely similar to last winter's pattern.

Don't assume the worst. Not yet.

Model Ensemble Spread.
The heaviest snow band may set up just north of the Twin Cities, but
models are converging around 5-8" for the Twin Cities, possibly more for
the far northern suburbs depending on the final storm track. Graphic:
Iowa State.

Model Creep.
So much data, so litte wisdom. Which model do you believe, and why? We
now have scores of weather models to browse, each simulation running
slightly different initiatlization parameters and physics. In a perfect
world all the models agree. This rarely happens. When models converge on
a specific number our confidence level goes up, and as of late Saturday
night the ensemble mean was close to 10". That number could still
verify, especially far northern suburbs.

Accumulated Snowfall Potential.
You can see the band of moderate to heavy rain pushing across the
eastern Dakotas into central Minnesota Monday. A difference of 50 miles
in the storm track could make the difference between 4-5" in the Twin
Cities or a cool foot. At this point it looks plowable for the Twin
Cities, where a period of ice may keep amounts down a bit on Monday. The
best chance of 6, 8 or 10" may come over the north metro. 4 km NAM
guidance: NOAA and HAMweather.When A Forecast of 6-12" is Conservative.
Check out the 00z NAM numbers from NOAA, a total of 1.53" liquid by
midday Tuesday, all of it falling as snow. No mix, no changeover to ice
or rain to keep snowfall amounts down. Could the storm take a more
northerly track, pushing the heaviest snow bands into St. Cloud?
Absolutely. But as of now there's a very real chance of some 8-14"
amounts across the metro from Monday into midday Tuesday. Then it's
going to get abnormally cold. Other than that, not much to talk about.

Son of Polar Vortex.
The pattern looking out into the third week of November does bring back
some scream-worthy memories of last winter. Not quite as harsh or
extreme as January of 2014, but temperatures will be as much as 20-30F
colder than average the latter half of this week and much of next week,
while abnormally warm air swirls around the Arctic Circle. Very odd.

"Deadliest Catch" Fishing Boats To Ride Out Killer Storm.
Typhoon Nuri was a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It has lost all tropical
characteristics, but it promises to kick up 50 foot seas and
hurricane-force winds off the coast of Alaska. The Bering Straight will
be a tough place to ride out what may turn into an historic storm;
here's an excerpt from Discovery News: "Three
Alaskan fishing boats on Discovery Channel's award-winning program
"Deadliest Catch" will be riding out a massive Bering Sea storm that is
powering hurricane force winds and waves up to 50 feet and forecast to
bring unseasonable cold to most of the United States next week. The
remnants of Typhoon Nuri is moving northeast from off the Japanese coast
and is mixing with cold air and the Jet Stream. It could arrive
Saturday before weakening in the Bering Sea, the National Weather
Service (NSW) said..."

Melting Arctic Sea Ice Doubles The Chances of Harsh Winters In Other Parts of the World. Public Radio International had a very interesting interview on a subject that may be relevant and timely; here's an excerpt: "...In
its simplest terms, she says, when sea ice melts, the dark ocean
underneath absorbs much more energy from the sun during the summer,
which warms the water more than usual. When fall arrives and cold air
moves in again, all the energy stored in the water gets released into
the atmosphere, which, in turn, causes the air above the water to warm
up more than usual. This warming has the effect of pushing the jet
stream northward. The jet stream is a fast-moving river of air high in
the atmosphere that generates the weather we experience at the Earth's
surface..." (Image: NOAA Photo Library).

Average monthly temperatures for October
in Minnesota were near, to slightly above, historical averages. Cool
temperatures early in the month were counterbalanced by a late-month
warm spell..."

Why Sand Is Disappearing. Here's a snippet of an Op-Ed at The New York Times that got my attention: "...Today,
however, 75 to 90 percent of the world’s natural sand beaches are
disappearing, due partly to rising sea levels and increased storm
action, but also to massive erosion caused by the human development of
shores. Many low-lying barrier islands are already submerged. Yet the
extent of this global crisis is obscured because so-called beach
nourishment projects attempt to hold sand in place and repair the damage
by the time summer people return, creating the illusion of an eternal
shore..."

Sandy file photo: Mike Groll, AP.

The $9 Billion Witness: Meet JPMorgan Chase's Worst Nightmare. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating story of greed, courage and redemption at Rolling Stone: "...Fleischmann
is the central witness in one of the biggest cases of white-collar
crime in American history, possessing secrets that JPMorgan Chase CEO
Jamie Dimon late last year paid $9 billion (not $13 billion as regularly
reported – more on that later) to keep the public from hearing. Back in
2006, as a deal manager at the gigantic bank, Fleischmann first
witnessed, then tried to stop, what she describes as "massive criminal
securities fraud" in the bank's mortgage operations..."

Conservatives Don't Hate Climate Change; They Hate The Proposed Solutions: Study. Huffington Post has the story; here's the intro: "Conservatives who reject the science of climate change aren't necessarily reacting to the science, according to a new study from researchers at Duke University.
They're reacting to the fact that they don't like proposed solutions
more strongly identified with liberals. The paper looks at the
relationship between political ideology and rejection of scientific
evidence. The researchers look most closely at climate change and other
environmental challenges, an area where
those who identify as liberals or Democrats mostly accept scientific
conclusions while conservatives or Republicans largely reject them. The
researchers conclude that on climate and other important societal
issues, this denial is "rooted not in a fear of the general problem, per
se, but rather in fear of the specific solutions associated with that
problem..."

Climate Conflict Is Near, Admiral Warns. U-T San Diego has the story; here's an excerpt: "...But
land, fresh water and other essentials are at risk from the projected
effects of climate change, he said. The U.S. will see conflicts over
those assets unless we convert to clean energy, curb waste and prepare
for long-term challenges, he said. “Sea level is rising, population is
exploding, climates are changing, environments are being affected, and
the potential for a secure and prosperous 21st century is at risk if we
don’t start making some plans for opportunities that are not secured in
the next quarter’s return on investment and the next election,” Hering
said in an interview in advance of his presentation. “We need to make
investments for our grandchildren...” (Image: NOAA).

I Was Once A Climate Change Denier. Salon traces the chronology of one skeptic as he went from denying to ultimately accepting the science; here's a clip: "...As
time went on, I was exposed to more and more evidence in support of
climate change that I could no longer deny. I had no choice but to adapt
my theory and finally admit to some sort of climate change. “OK, it may
be happening, but how can you tell if it’s our fault? We lack a control
Earth!” To back myself up, I clung to a variety of fringe arguments:
“It’s the sun!” or “We can’t trust the measurements!” or “It has
happened before! It’s normal!” and so on. (You can find a long list of
common climate change myths debunked here and a shorter version here. Right now the list counts up to 176. New ones are added often.)..."

Denying Problems When We Don't Like The Solutions. Here's an excerpt of a story at Duke University
highlighting and confirming what many of us already suspect: "...A new
study from Duke University finds that people will evaluate scientific
evidence based on whether they view its policy implications as
politically desirable. If they don't, then they tend to deny the problem
even exists. “Logically, the proposed solution to a problem, such as an
increase in government regulation or an extension of the free market,
should not influence one’s belief in the problem. However, we find it
does,” said co-author Troy Campbell, a Ph.D. candidate at Duke's Fuqua
School of Business. “The cure can be more immediately threatening than
the problem...”

Report on Second Annual Climate Adaptation Conference.
This conference was held Thursday at the Hyatt in Minneapolis; I was
very encouraged to see the turn-out, the variety of participants across
multiple fields and the focus on finding solutions to adapt to a more
volatile climate. Here's an excerpt of a summary from one of the
conferences organizers, Dr. Mark Seeley, in his weekly WeatherTalk Newsletter: "...Highlights: Dr. Harold Brooks-NOAA Severe Storms Lab, Oklahoma lecturing on severe weather and climate change;

-Climate
trends are clearly showing greater variability in some severe weather
elements, including heavier rains, cluster outbreaks of tornadoes, more
large hail, and seasonal changes in peak risk periods for hail, strong
winds, and tornadoes. Peak season for heavy rainfall has shifted to
August in our region.

-More research with reanalysis of
upper air data and high resolution climate model outputs will be useful
in further delineating the future risk of specific severe weather
elements over finer scale geography.

-Climate trends are
effecting recreation and tourism in terms of number of visitors and
seasonal use and activity, e.g. northern MN more stable environment for
winter recreation (skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing); Mississippi River
accessibility for educational programs has recently been restricted due
to many high flow periods..."

No comments:

Post a Comment

About Me

Welcome to my weather blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I'll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use.
I'm still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I've started 5 weather-related companies. "EarthWatch" created the world's first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations - Steven Spielberg used our software in "Jurassic Park" and "Twister". My last company, "Digital Cyclone", personalized weather for cell phones. "My-Cast" was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation.
__________________________
Twitter name: pdouglasweather