A Republican comeback?

For the first time since their 2006 election drubbing, top Republicans see signs — however faint — of a political resurgence over the next year.

At first blush, this sounds absurd. After all, polls show the GOP more unpopular than ever, and the John Ensign sex scandal serves as a vivid, real-time reminder of why many see the party as a collection of hypocrites.

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But several trends suggest this optimism might not be as far-fetched as it seems.

Polls show that the GOP is wise to focus most of its attacks on spending, government intervention and job losses. (Those same polls show the public has low regard for Republicans on these issues, but it's a significant development that President Barack Obama's numbers are slipping in these areas, too.) And just as importantly, GOP leaders on Capitol Hill privately recognize the need to distance themselves a bit from George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich — even though they've done poor job of doing so thus far.

This combination of exploiting the unpopular parts of the Democratic Party and moving beyond the unpopular parts of their own is a start. But it will take a lot more to undo years of self-inflicted damage during the Bush years.

Here's a look at why a GOP comeback is plausible, and why the Republicans could easily blow it.

How the Republicans Could Come Back

A red state

Polls show that Obama's chief vulnerability is public concern over the soaring deficit. And as the sticker shock of a trillion-dollar-plus health care plan takes hold, these concerns are only likely to grow.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) — long used to hearing complaints about Bush — says his moderate constituents have finally found something else to gripe about. "Now the dominant thing I hear from them is: 'What is all this government spending?'" said Kirk, who is mulling a Senate run next year.

Squabbling over much else, Republicans are emboldened and united on this issue. In the House, they banded together last week to oppose a supplemental war funding bill because it included $5 billion for the International Monetary Fund — what one GOP member called a "global bailout." They are gearing up to oppose Democratic plans to increase domestic spending this summer and fall.

Yes, this approach is more than a tad hypocritical. Under Bush, Republicans vastly expanded the size of government and whacked Democrats when they opposed war funding. But memories fade fast in politics, especially in this era of turbo-charged media.

And, as is key in political debates, Republicans have distilled their argument down to a bumper sticker slogan: "President Obama spends too much, taxes too much and borrows too much."

Expect to hear that refrain in upcoming spending fights — and with regularity in the midterm elections.

Promises, promises

Obama promised his stimulus plan would keep unemployment below 10 percent, and some of his advisers said it would remain below 8 percent. But now the president himself says it will hit 10 percent this year.

The administration's technique of incorporating "jobs saved" into its accounting is being met with increased skepticism — and is unlikely to resonate if unemployment lines run long.

"I think his biggest vulnerability right now is that unemployment is going to exceed 10 percent and be there for some time," said House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.). "The stimulus bill was meant to sustain and create new jobs. And it hasn't done it."

Beyond the Beltway, many states aren't feeling the impact of the stimulus. According to the Labor Department, 48 states saw worsened economic conditions in May. And eight states — including population giants Florida and California — saw record unemployment rates.

Forget every article you've read about just what policy reforms or new leaders the GOP needs to come back. If this economy is worse off a year from now, that is what Republicans will run on. In politics, the resurrection of the out party almost always comes from the failure or excesses of the in party.

"The voters are likely to use Republicans as a check" in 2010, said former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.). "Even if they don't fully support us, they can give Republicans a protest vote."