Turkey faces increasing isolation in the region and has seen its influence waning over the conflicts in Syria and in Iraq.

Tight spot. People shout slogans as they hold Turkish and Qatari flags during a demonstration in favour of Qatar in central Istanbul, on June 7. (Reuters)

2017/06/18 Issue: 111
Page: 12

The Arab Weekly Constanze Letsch

Istanbul - The dramatic political crisis unfolding between Qatar and several other Arab states might have nega­tive implications for Tur­key, the small Gulf state’s staunch­est supporter, analysts said.

“We will continue to support Qa­tar in every possible way,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told members of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) during iftar June 9 in Istanbul. “We will continue to take the side of the op­pressed.”

He added that the embargo im­posed on Qatar “should be lifted completely because such things should not happen between broth­ers.”

He later told Bahrain’s foreign minister that the dispute between Qatar and its Arab adversaries should be settled by the end of Ramadan, Turkish media reported. Several Turkish analysts said that Erdogan’s chances of brokering an agreement were slim, however.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt and Yem­en severed diplomatic ties with Qatar on June 5. Other countries soon followed. They accuse Qatar of supporting Islamist groups, includ­ing the Muslim Brotherhood, and of entertaining an inappropriately close relationship with Iran. Qatar dismissed the allegations as “base­less” and “slanderous.”

The Turkish parliament fast-tracked legislation allowing the deployment of Turkish troops to Qatar, where it has a military base and approximately 150 soldiers. The law permits the Turkish Army to conduct joint military exercises with Qatari troops and foresees the provision of military training to the Qatari gendarmerie.

Turkey has also sent food and water supplies to Qatar after other Arab countries imposed economic sanctions, closed their airspace and shut all land borders with the small Gulf country.

Turkey faces increasing isolation in the region and has seen its influ­ence waning over the conflicts in Syria and in Iraq. Some were puz­zled that Ankara threw all its sup­port behind Qatar, risking alienat­ing Saudi Arabia. It appears that the AKP government chose to interpret the actions against Qatar as a hostile act against Turkey.

“It didn’t take Ankara long to reach the conclusion that, after Qa­tar, Turkey is the likely next target,” Fehim Tastekin wrote in Al-Mon­itor. “All the reasons cited by the Saudi king and the US president to declare Qatar a ‘supporter of terror’ could easily be applied to Turkey.”

Qatar and Turkey have long shared similar views and strate­gies on regional issues and both have backed the same actors in Egypt and Syria. Both countries are known to be staunch supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and both have granted refuge to Egyptian members of the group after they were ousted from power by Egyp­tian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in 2013. This support for the Muslim Brotherhood has long strained their relationship with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Turkey and Qatar have long worked on expanding bilateral ties. In December 2014, Turkey and Qatar signed a memorandum to establish a “High Level Strategic Committee” with the aim of forging agreements concerning the joint development of science and technology, the de­fence industry, military training and the deployment of Turkish military forces in Qatar. Since then Turkish and Qatari leaders have conducted regular meetings.

Now analysts warn Turkey’s un­questioning support for Qatar might have serious repercussions.

“If this crisis gets worse and ends with the disintegration of Qatar, Turkey, as its ally, might find itself in a tight spot,” journalist Rusen Cakir said. He cited the diplomatic rift following the military coup in Egypt, during which most coun­tries, with the exception of Turkey and Tunisia, supported Sisi against the ousted president Muhammad Morsi. “Turkey is still dealing with the regional, economic, but fore­most strategic problems resulting from this.”

He added that the AKP-govern­ment will face difficulties trying to rally support among their support­ers who, like most of the Turkish public, see Qatar as a rich country and not an oppressed victim.

“It is impossible to turn this into a struggle resembling the struggle for Palestine,” Cakir said. “People might form an opinion by looking to President Erdogan but there is no real desire to become defenders of Qatar.”

Despite Erdogan’s staunch sup­port for Qatar, his tone towards the bloc around Saudi Arabia has been unusually mild. Calling on the Saudi leadership to take the lead in reconciliation efforts in the Gulf, he warned that there “would be no winners in a war among brothers.”

However, the rhetoric might well start to heat up. In reply to a state­ment by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE, accusing a dozen charity organisations and 59 individuals in Qatar of links to “terrorism,” Erdogan said: “There is no such thing. I know those foundations. I have not witnessed Qatar supporting terrorism.”

Turkish opposition parties urged Erdog­an to remain neutral and “stay out of the Gulf quagmire.” Oguz Kaan Salici, an Istan­bul MP for the main opposition Repub­lican People’s Party criticised the rushed parliamentary vote on the bill allowing for Turkish troop de­ployment in Qatar. It was, he said, “a sign that Tur­key tries to take sides.”

Ziya Pir of the pro- Kurdish Peoples’ Dem­ocratic Party said the allegations against Doha made Turkey’s uncritical stance to­wards Qatar very problematic. “Tur­key takes the po­sition of Qatar,” he said. “There are allegations that Qatar funnels money and weapons to the Muslim Brotherhood, to al-Nusra and to [the Islamic State]. This agreement should not have been made now.”

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