2016 Election with Projected 2024 Electoral Votes

Estimate as of December, 2018

The 2020 Census will lead to a reapportionment of Congressional Districts. Since each state receives electoral votes equal to its number of Districts (+2 for its Senators), the electoral map will be changing for the 2024 presidential election. Based on the late 2018 estimate by Election Data Services, TX and FL will be the big winners, gaining 3 and 2 electoral votes, respectively. AZ, CO, MT, NC and OR will gain one each. As the number of electoral votes is fixed, these 10 increased votes must come from somewhere else. The current projection is that New York will lose two electoral votes, while eight states (AL, IL, MI, MN, OH, PA, RI, WV) are on track to lose one each.

The interactive map below shows that if the projected 2024 map had been in place in 2016, Trump would have won 309 electoral votes, 3 more than the 306 he actually won (excluding faithless electors).

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