The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Believe it or not, John James Audubon saw only a handful of these delightful creatures in his lifetime. The reason is that Chestnut-sided Warblers depend on regenerating second-growth for breeding, and most of the continent’s forests were still intact during his travels across North America. Today this species is abundant. Audubon’s climate model projects a rapidly changing future for this species in summer, with only 12% of the current core range remaining stable by 2080 and a rapidly shifting climate space northward and westward. This species will need to use all its skills of adaptation to maintain its current populations for the future.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.