Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Giannoulias and Obama

Barack Obama is appearing with Alexi Giannoulias today in Illinois and that's a good thing for the Illinois candidate because fewer Obama voters are supporting him than any other major Democratic Senate hopeful in the country.

On our recent poll of the state Giannoulias was getting just 53% from people who reported having voted for Obama in 2008. In ten other key races we've looked at over the last four months the Democratic candidates were earning anywhere from 69-86% of the 2008 Obama vote. So not only is Giannoulias lagging the rest of his counterparts across the country, but he is doing so by a wide margin.

The candidate doing the best job of keeping Obama voters in the fold? Robin Carnahan in Missouri. That figure is further confirmation that she may be the best Democratic Senate recruit in the country, but the reality is that she may still lose because of Obama's flagging popularity in the state.

Obama is not a problem for Giannoulias- he is very clearly his own problem. But maybe Obama's overt support will help him bring up that 53% figure- even if he was on the low end of that 69-86% everyone else is getting it would be enough to put him back in the lead.

Here's the data on the percentage of the Obama vote the major Democratic Senate candidates we've polled on recently are getting:

I really want to commend you for approving all of these comments by Republicans (including me). For a Democratic pollster, this blog is run in a way that makes it hard to tell that sometimes. Great work presented in a great fashion.

Oh, and also, I'll be candid. The Dems should beg Giannoulias to drop out in favor of Lisa Madigan. Why turn a safe seat into a lean-Republican race? It's absurd for Dems. So, uh, wait. Don't take my advice.