One of the most naturally talented fighters to ever grace the Octagon, B.J. Penn will officially end his 30-month retirement when he steps into the cage to square off against Yair Rodriguez in the main event of Sunday’s UFC show in Phoenix (TSN5, 7 p.m.).

A former two-division world champion, Penn, 38, called it quits following a third-round stoppage loss to Frankie Edgar in July 2014, breaking down at the post-fight news conference when asked to assess his legacy and forced to admit that he no longer had what it takes to compete at the highest level.

Last January, the former welterweight and lightweight champ announced his intention to return to action. He headed to Albuquerque, N.M., to train with the all-stars at the Jackson-Wink MMA Academy. Though a series of different issues kept Penn from competing in 2016, the charismatic Hawaiian remained committed to coming back.

Speaking to him last weekend, Penn was able to move me from my position that this is a terrible matchup that will end badly for him, convincing me like he’s done numerous times in the past that this time, things will be different. It takes a skilled talker to make you overlook all the physical advantages that fall in favour of Rodriguez and the fact that Penn hasn’t actually won a fight since November 2010, but there is something about Penn’s laid-back island drawl mixed with conviction that can make you believe he’ll emerge victorious Sunday.

While it would be a great story if he did manage to stride into the UFC cage and upend the surging Rodriguez, who enters on a seven-fight win streak, the last four coming in the Octagon, chances are this fairy tale won’t have a happy ending.

Penn was non-competitive in his last three outings before his retirement, offering very little in lopsided decision losses to Nick Diaz and Rory MacDonald before getting stopped by Edgar. He seemed to be walking away at the right time — something most athletes fail to do — and while Penn can chalk-up his late-career struggles to poor preparation, a lack of focus or any number of things, there is a much simpler explanation for his struggles: He was an older man with declining skills trying to hang with younger, hungrier, faster and stronger athletes.

Although he wasn’t getting knocked cold the same way Chuck Liddell was in the final stages of his illustrious career, the parallels are there as both were early stars in the Zuffa era of the UFC — champs with electric highlight reels and impressive resumes — who took sharp, sudden falls.

Like Penn, Liddell was saying all the right things in advance of his fight with Rich Franklin in Vancouver at UFC 115 — the time off had served him well; best shape of his life; ready to make one last run — and he was looking good as the seconds ticked down in the opening round of their fight, right up until the point where a short right hand sent him crashing to the canvas and brought his career to a close.

More often than not, this is what happens to guys who hang on too long and it’s why I’ve been so adamant about Georges St-Pierre not returning to the UFC. The former welterweight champ managed to get out just as the division was catching up to him, while avoiding the kind of lopsided loss that many of his contemporaries now have capping their resumes. Returning means rolling the dice and potentially suffering the same fate as the likes of Liddell, Franklin, Randy Couture and countless others.

Penn has already been on the business side of a demoralizing defeat that sent him into retirement once, and despite all his assurances that things will be very different when he returns to action this weekend — and the fan in me wanting to see it happen for old-times’ sake — it’s hard to envision things playing out that way Sunday.

E. Spencer Kyte covers MMA for The Province and hosts the Keyboard Kimura Podcast. Follow him on social media (@spencerkyte) and subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and Stitcher.

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