Budget increase not likely for NASA

View full sizeNASANASA's plans to send astronauts to the moon are under review. The space agency has been working to develop new launch vehicles - like an Earth Departure Stage pictured above - to return to the moon or go to Mars.

Over the next seven days, President Barack Obama will deliver his first State of the Union address and send a federal budget recommendation to Congress.

The State of the Union is scheduled for Wednesday, and the federal budget rolls out Feb. 1. Don't expect a lot for NASA in either, space and military experts say. But Huntsville-based military programs should remain stable in Obama's budget request, they added.

"It's unlikely the president will say much about NASA in his State of the Union speech," said Huntsville lawyer Mark McDaniel, who advises members of Congress on aerospace issues. "That time is generally reserved for broader, more national-type concerns.

"You'll hear about health care, education specifically, and the wars. Sadly enough, I doubt NASA will figure into it, unless it is part of his education plan."

The White House, more than likely, will recommend that NASA receive about $20 billion for fiscal 2011. "That's about flat," McDaniel said. "It doesn't really keep up with inflation."

The Augustine Commission - Obama's NASA review board that weighed in on the space agency's future last year - suggested that the White House increase the NASA budget by at least $3 billion over the next five years, and then add another $1 billion each year after that.

The extra money is needed for NASA to do anything beyond going to and from the International Space Station, and to build the Marshall Space Flight Center-managed Ares V. The panel suggested the president direct NASA to stop work on the smaller Ares I, saying it has no real destination because it won't be ready until about a year before NASA is scheduled to cease space station operations.

"The Mars missions have been a question mark since candidate Obama was running for the White House and he said that money would be shifted to education," said Loren Thompson, a military and space expert with the Lexington Institute, an independent think tank in Arlington, Va. "I'm pessimistic about the outlook for the entire human exploration mission.

"I think the handwriting is pretty much on the wall that we are not going back to the moon, let alone Mars, anytime soon."

Thompson was more upbeat about the Pentagon budget, saying "it will come in during 2011 as being more than what the Bush White House spent on the military."

The 2011 defense budget is said to be about $546 billion for regular operations and another $153 billion for both wars, Thompson told The Times last week.

"It's not going to be the end of the world for the defense business," Thompson said.

There has been a shift in missile-defense spending, with about $2 billion being cut from the Missile Defense Agency budget. Most of that money is coming out of the Ground-based Mid-course Missile Defense, or GMD, program managed here.

"That's been in the works," Thompson said, "and the Kinetic Energy Interceptor has been cut, but what you will see is more of a shift to sea-based programs."

The Navy's SM-3 interceptors have not traditionally been a Huntsville program, but the Missile Defense Agency and Boeing have been increasing management and design work performed on the program in Huntsville over the past two years.

The budget will have to wend its way through Congress, and there's a good chance NASA and the Pentagon could get additional money there, McDaniel said.

"There's an old saying (that) the president proposes and Congress disposes of money," said McDaniel, who advises members of Congress and White House staffers on aerospace issues. "NASA will have to replace the space shuttle or we are going to be renting seats from the Russians, Europeans and maybe the Chinese over the next decade.