Reece Crowther: From pro football to pro punting

Professional footballer turned professional punter Reece Crowther has packed plenty into his 30 years. At just 16, Crowther moved from Australia to the United Kingdom to pursue a career in football as a goalkeeper.

A year with Crystal Palace was followed by a three-year stint at Queens Park Rangers, before Crowther returned home after signing with Wellington Phoenix in the A-League.

Unfortunately for Crowther, a burst appendix put the slows on his football career.

"My appendix ruptured. I was rushed to hospital and spent quite a while in there, losing around 20kg," Crowther said.

"My playing weight was around 96kg and I was down well below 80kg, so it took me around 18 months to get back fit and firing."

During his recovery time, Crowther tried his hand at online marketing - setting up firstly a T-shirt business and then a heavy-haulage equipment store.

He also dabbled in online poker, which grew from a hobby to something more serious after returning to the UK.

"I moved back to the UK for a girl and ended up getting right into poker, playing games in and around London, eventually for decent stakes."

"I was hanging out in poker rooms and around professional gamblers. With the poker games getting tougher to win, many were starting to look at other opportunities in the gambling space. There were a group who were exploiting the corporate bookies over in the UK, betting on sport."

Crowther was hungry to learn from these pros and take his punting to the next level.

THE LITTLE ENGINE

Crowther joined the group, and together they set up a market-monitoring tool that notified them of significant moves and pricing discrepancies from the no-vig Pinnacle line to the corporate bookmakers odds.

"Basically, we had built a little engine (or 'bot') that would monitor the no-vig Pinnacle line across every football market available. We then had an engine skimming the odds of the corporate books and anytime there was a deviation from the no-vig Pinnacle price we'd get a notification and smash those odds with the corporates for as much as we could.

"If you're consistently beating the no-vig Pinnacle closing line, you're going to be making money in the long-term. This is what’s called a +EV (expected value) play. Basic example, but if you're backing Manchester United -1.5 at $1.90 and Pinnacle closes at $1.70, you've got yourself an edge.

"If you can do this consistently over time and stake correctly to manage variance, you will be winning.

"Unfortunately in the UK, they are very quick to ban you when they think you've got any sort of a clue.

"Once we exhausted all of our accounts, we decided the best way to monetise the technology was to build a little product on a subscription model where clients were getting alerts, paying us a fee. It was called Edgebet before rebranding to Trademate."

Eventually Crowther and his business partners decided to tackle the much sharper Asian sports betting markets, where unlike the corporate bookmakers, the big Asian bookies (SBO, IBC, ISN, etc.) make money on turnover - so you will never be banned or limited.

Now they were playing with the Tony Bloom’s and Matthew Benham’s of the world, the sharks.

"We built an algorithm to trade in the sharpest markets in the world. I can’t give too much away, but put it this way, If you've got multiple markets trading the same sporting event, it presents an opportunity.

"Every market has a different liquidity, betting limits, etc. If you can identify which market is the sharpest at any point in time on a specific event, you can then go ahead and buy the better price elsewhere in that market - it's a signal of where the money is going to go. It gave us a decent edge to exploit.”

Staying ahead of the game didn't come cheap for Crowther though.

"At that point in time, we'd spent a lot of money on setting up - building the technology - so we didn't have much of a bank. We approached some of the poker players that I knew for financial backing."

"We raised about $1 million in a short time because thankfully they understood the concept that we were presenting and obviously understood expected value and all that.

"We started trading, primarily on NBA and European soccer - Champions League, Premier League, Bundesliga. We'd have $250,000-$300,000 in action at any one time. When you've got a million dollar bankroll and you've got $300,000 in play, that's pretty damn aggressive."

However, it was far from smooth-sailing for Crowther and his business partner in the early days of tackling the Asian markets.

"We lost $350,000 in the first eight weeks but we were smashing the Pinnacle closing line, so theoretically we were +EV and eventually if we could ride out the bad variance, we would make money. We didn't change things - we never reduced staking, we kept going. And then we kept losing, we lost almost $500,000 - half our bank. It was a nightmare."

"We said, 'we've got to reduce the bet sizing or we're gone here'. We gave ourselves one more weekend at the same staking, and all of a sudden, it changed - the variance turned around. We made half a million back in one weekend. Everything went our way and we had some breathing space. It was an amazing feeling.

"We finished year one well and truly in the black and proved the worth of our algorithm. We received a few offers to sell the technology and ended up selling to a corporate bookie because their offer was the best.

"At the end of 2017, that sale went through for around $2 million (AUD)," Crowther said.

A non-compete clause attached to the sale of his technology meant that Crowther was unable to work in the sports betting industry for four years, but horse racing was excluded from the deal.

"After I sold, I moved back to Australia. I'd been overseas, on and off, for about 12 years and I was done with it. I wasn't allowed to be involved in sports betting but horse racing was okay."

"I got together with my old business partner and we started looking at thoroughbred racing.

"It's a completely different beast - much higher variance than sports. However, I enjoy how fast-paced it is and the new challenge. It took us a year to build something of value and we’re obviously still developing it."

Crowther's first step was researching the big punting syndicates in Australia - looking into their different strategies, trying to identify the drivers behind their success.

"Horse racing here, you've got four or five big syndicates who run the show."

"Horse racing here, you've got four or five big syndicates who run the show."

REECE CROWTHER

"I wanted to find out what edge each of them have. One relies heavily on rebates, while another is just lethal on fixed odds - when they bet, the price disappears.

"There is a group that focuses primarily on Asian racing and one that is massive on mapping a race. From what we saw, the mapping of the race was absolutely where there seemed to be a real edge."

Speed maps are a real driver and perhaps the foundation of Crowther's latest venture, Racepal - a tipping service that covers thoroughbred racing all over Australia.

"At different tracks, when the rail is in a certain position, you can look at historical data and you can start to develop some probability of hit-rate areas where winners are coming from," Crowther said.

"Then you factor in the probability of a horse landing in that position and you can start to eliminate runners who just can't win. Race selection is extremely important for us.

"We build a profile - this horse has gate speed, this is where he's drawn, what are his chances of lobbing in the sweet spot?

"Ok, this horse is in the right spot, but is it actually capable of winning? That's where the ratings come in.

"The third step is we want to see the market line up against our estimated SP range that we generate for each runner.

"I want everything we do in the analysis phase to be automated. You want to have a technology that is of value - that is generating multiple and diverse streams of income for the business because eventually you might want to sell down the track."

For Crowther and the Racepal team, building products and providing quality analysis for their community is paramount.

Their most successful service, 'The Racepal Monty', is about to launch as a stand-alone product and is designed as an affordable, entry-level product for the recreational punter, according to Crowther.

"'The Monty' is by far our most successful service. On average we send out 5-6 of them per week, with assessed prices, full race overview and staking suggestions. Essentially, a 'Monty' is a horse we identify with a significant overlay. We are around +170 units for six months."

“We also have our top-tier product, called 'The Racepal Club'. It's a private community, which gives our clients direct access to myself and the team and also provides daily assessments and bet suggestions."

Quizzed on whether he's concerned about horses starting 'unders' due to the number of subscribers jumping on, Crowther was pragmatic in his sentiments.

"Look, the big players have got more money in play than the rest of the Australian punting public combined. So there are times when something we send out lines up with them and the price disappears.

"Then there are other times when they get right out late in betting because the syndicates are betting around it - that's the game."

Crowther's objective is to make his clients money in the short-term, but also to give them the tools and education to be successful punters long-term.

The Racepal Monty has just launched. If you sign-up using promo code 'PUNTERS' or by clicking this link - you will receive 20% discount ongoing for the lifetime of your subscription.

Share your thoughts

If you are considering this have a look at Racepal club it's same price with lots more bets as well as the daily monty. I would have thought the Monty only subscription would have been far less as you would need fair size bank to cover cost alongside smallish % profit and variance.