It was easy to forget that, after the most eventful and shattering days of the Essendon supplement siege, there was still a little game of football buried under the rubble. Essendon, on the reckoning of many of us, were likely playing for nought, while Carlton was playing for a finals berth, regardless of Essendon's impending sentence.

These strange circumstances led to the assumption - based also on Essendon's collapse over the previous four games - that the Blues, with a genuine incentive, would have a comfortable victory in what might be James Hird's last game coaching for quite a while. Speculation on all these off-field possibilities made it harder for the modest crowd of 53,630 - about 20,000 shy of what this game usually attracts - to focus on match-ups and so forth.

AFL Round 22 Carlton vs. Essendon

The Bombers take a remarkable victory over the Blues, as the Age photographer Sebastian Costanzo captured the thrill and tension of the match in a series of images from the MCG. Photo: Sebastian Costanzo

But among the differing incentives that these teams might have ignored were two salient facts. One was that this was Carlton v Essendon, a contest that has a knack for the unexpected and which neither club can stand to lose. Beating Carlton - and perhaps farewelling Hird for a stretch - is motivation aplenty.

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The second cause for uncertainty about this game was the actual teams. When you look at the line-ups on paper, the Dons clearly seemed stronger. It was just a question of whether they could re-capture whatever it was that had been lost during the siege.

Moreover, Carlton's late withdrawals were worrisome for the Blues and surely a source of hope for the Bombers. Andrew Walker, who pulled out with a virus, has been among Carlton's top two or three this year, while Matthew Kreuzer's absence meant that Robbie Warnock would be matched to the more athletic and capable Paddy Ryder.

Once Brock McLean was subbed out in the first quarter with what was speculated to be a quadricep injury, Carlton suddenly bordered on depleted. The Blues didn't have Chris Judd either, remember. So when you compared the teams that were actually out on the paddock, Essendon actually had the superior manpower, with Jobe Watson, David Zaharakis and Brent Stanton in the midfield, Michael Hurley in attack with Stuart Crameri and most of their first choice defenders.

In the opening quarter, the Blues never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity (the line once used to describe Yasser Arafat's negotiations). A return of 3.9 was poor and this profligacy enabled the Bombers to remain close - and then to draw within a point near quarter-time after Watson - to the now customary boos of the opposition crowd and counter-cheering of his own - slotted a goal from a Hurley pass.

The Blues would pay dearly for their inaccuracy throughout the game, which they led by as much as 20 points in the third quarter, after opening that term with a burst triggered by a Lachie Henderson goal. Carlton would lead at three-quarter time by 17 points - close enough for the Bombers to snatch a famous win that would be forever remembered, even if it had no bearing on the premiership.

David Myers marked and goalled to close to margin to 11 points. The Bombers, who had plugged away with a re-discovered spirit, suddenly found the confidence and belief that they'd threatened to re-discover all evening. Hurley received a relay free and converted from an angle - margin now under a kick.

Carlton was slowing, while the Dons runners - led by a re-energised Zaharakis - were finding the ball and some room. Brendon Goddard, commanding all night and damaging with the ball, was instrumental in the final quarter surge that carried the Dons to an improbable victory. Watson had been consistent but not dominant. Carlton's threadbare midfield, to this point, had been well served by the big-bodied Tom Bell, who had his best game for the club yet, while Marc Murphy was steady. But the Blues' run was vanishing.

When Ryder marked in a pack and drilled the easy shot, the Bombers were ahead. Suddenly, the improbable seemed probable.

The Blues levelled with a poster to Henderson, and the scores remained deadlocked, aside from a brief moment when Heath Hocking soccered a behind, for most the last 10-12 minutes.

The Blues had their chances, as Levi Casboult botched a chance to score something - anything might have done it at this late stage. But his indecision saw the ball swept to the other end. A pack was crashed, spoiling Kade Simpson - probably Carlton's best across half back - enabling Zaharakis to swoop on the loose ball. A last-minute specialist - see Anzac Day, 2009 - he broke the deadlock with 27 seconds left.

Given little chance, the Dons had managed the heist. Whatever the next day brings, none of their faithful will think it was for nothing.

WAYWARD BLUES

Carlton squandered scoring chances with inaccurate kicking, and the consequences are significant. With the Dons coming off four straight defeats and expected to be stripped of their finals berth in coming days, the Blues would have been assured of at least sewing up ninth spot and becoming the beneficiaries had they won. Now, the Blues must beat Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium next Saturday to ensure they're the side that will enter the eight if Essendon is kicked out. If Carlton loses that game, North Melbourne, West Coast, Adelaide or perhaps the Brisbane Lions could potentially overtake it.

An earlier version of this story incorrectly referred to Matthew Warnock rather than Robbie Warnock. The reference has been changed.