Gulf Stream and Atlantic Heat Conveyor

NOCS

WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

The Atlantic Heat Conveyor (within which the Gulf Stream plays a role) helps to maintain relatively mild temperatures in north-west Europe. Some observations suggest that the Atlantic Heat Conveyor has reduced in strength by up to 30% since the early 1990s. More data are needed to distinguish this trend from natural variability, which has recently been shown to be large on a day-to-day basis.

It is very likely that the Atlantic Heat Conveyor will slow during this century, but not sufficiently to completely offset warming across the UK.

There is considered to be less than a 10% chance of a collapse of the Atlantic Heat Conveyor this century.