Hey CP...The Liberals probably have the decision to take. The NDP and Bloc will vote to defeat the government, whether or not it is in their interests.

I wonder if the Liberals will suffer a momentary backlash if they do so and then if they think they can generate a good enough campaign to defeat the Conservatives...just adding a few seats to their total seems rather pointless.

We must also remember that in 2006 the election was won in the campaign - polls now are tight, suggesting Liberal gains, but just relying on that is quite a gamble.

I do agree that Progressive party won't work. I was never impressed about that party in any event. I recall one of its MPs failed to honour his pairing with an absent Conservative MP...the Government fell by one vote.

I susepct that Macdonald tried just a little too hard. Interestingly, he never capitalized on his urban strength. City ridings were very large in population for several decades. I think he was more interested in getting a few grits out of his hair.

Looking at it seriously, there are not likely to be many changes. Quebec is likely to retain its 75 seats by the current formula...some rural seats might get squeezed while some larger urban ridings might shed some territory but I wouldn't expect anything drastic.

Renfrew was traditionally Liberal in its politics, though socially very Conservative. There are substantial Polish settlements (see Barry's Bay), also a large military contingent (but that vote has shifted Tory now) and civil servants (?) living in Deep River (nuclear workers?)

Of course, while many parts of a riding can be stable and keep the same poll boundaries, some are growing explosively and either have extra polling subdivisions added to existing polls, 145-1, 145-2 etc...or just new polls added. I have found that 2004 and 2006 are quite similar across teh country but there was a number of ridings whose polls were changed in 2008. Had the election been further delayed, they would have been an extensive remaping take place.

The results from York Centre are actually pretty interesting. First, you have Ken Dryden coming rather close to losing his own riding. It isn't much of "his riding' in the sense that he has never lived there and publicly indicated that he wouldn't in his first election in 2004 - a good test of how strong a Liberal riding it was. But in 2006-8, the Jewish portion of the riding, containing many Orthodox neighbourhoods, has shifted Conservative - making the riding rather close for one which had been one of the most Liberal in Toronto.

An excellent map. prior to 1968, Eglinton was essentially North Toronto centred on Yonge Street. Since then, Yonge Street has divided the Eglinton neighbourhoods in half...those in the west half going to Eglinton and/or Eglinton Lawrence while those east have gone to Don Valley West.

Eglinton Lawrence has really three distinct communities...all going froms south to north. The furthest west is an extension of the Downsview Italian community. Based on Bathurst is the substantial Jewish community which moved from Kensington Market in the 1950s-60s and the very Anglo Eglinton making up the rest.

In 2008 this riding is an excellent example fo the Jewish vote finally trending Conservative. If the Tories had also run well in their traditional neighbourhoods in Eglinton, they would have taken this riding. Here redistribution makes it very hard for the Tories to win.

Here is a link to older maps that I did...Toronto in the 1971 and 1975 provincial elections. I am seated in the 1975 photo to show perspective...it was a BIG map - all hand coloured by graduated winning margins which were calculated "in my head".

I must disagree a little with those who described its voting behavior. As a french rural riding, it was very Liberal (see returns for Russell riding). Indeed, the village of Orleans was very heavily Liberals for years (in 1968, admittedly a Liberal landslide, it voted 91% Liberal!).

Increasing suburbanization has changed its character into a more typcially suburban riding. It is above average in income and education and is overwhelmingly home-owners, while also having more francoiphone voters still than any other Ottawa riding save Ottawa-Vanier.

The core francophone communities are the old Orleans village polls (about 4-5 of them) plus some of the newer more easterly subdivisions (south of Innes near Trim road). The Conservative MP Galipeau wins good margins in the middle class anglophone polls but has increased his support in the francophone polls as well. They trend Liberal still but not as much as in the past.

Now there is one voting bloc which is almost entirely composed of government workers...namely the "Special Voting Rules - II" category...voters employed by the government who are abroad or elsewhere in Canada. Who are they? The large majority are military and many of the rest are foreign service officers serving in diplomatic missions overseas. In Ottawa, there are more diplomatic voters compared to the military as they usually maintain their primary residence in Ottawa.

These SVR voters were traditionally very Liberal - up to the Mulroney years when they trended sharply Conservative. Liberal again during the Chretien years, in 2008 they once more swung very Conservative. It certainly speaks to the military as thinking the new government were friends of the restoration of the neglected state of the armed forces. These are not merely generals, but privates and ordinary enlisted men...There is no doubt that this particular group trended sharply Conservative from 2006-8.

I think civil servants are well-distributed around Ottawa - Ottawa-Vanier has the most apparently but there is no concentration.

I don't see civil servants voting en bloc for any party, though perhaps on the Quebec side they may do more so for the Liberals as opposed to the Bloc Quebecois.

Remember that civil servants are employees - so they look on the federal government as both a provider of policies and employment. The Conservatives are pretty similar to the Liberals as employers...I might even give them an edge as the Liberals under Chretien froze pay for 5 long years from 1993-1998.

The Liberals are also greater sinners as far as patronage appointments are concerned. The Conservatives have made far fewer patronage appointments than the Liberals who were notorious under Chretien and Martin both. They also stopped the practice of allowing their ministerial staffers to float into the civil service after a number of years of service on a preferred basis.

The other side of the coin is that some civil servants are probably used to working for a Liberal government and tend to adopt the Liberal world view, perhaps especially in more senior ranks.

In any event, in Ottawa generally in 2008, there was no trend either way, while the rest of Ontario was swinging Conservative - a suggestion that civil servants may have been less enthusiastic. But the city ridings voted Conservative overall by a pretty good margin.

Brampton has quite a large number of South Asians as does Malton. West Brampton riding has what might be considered "old Brampton" which voted rather Conservative on this map. The Brampton-Malton riding has a bit of a contest between a traditonally Conservative section of Brampton and arch-Liberal Malton. For history buffs, Malton was an employment centre for the aricraft industry when the Diefenbaker Government cancelled the Avro-Areo. It voted heavily Liberal in the next election, tipping the balance in 1962 and has voted Liberal more or less since.

That former borough is the last place God made. Why would anyone be interested in it? Even when it had competitive elections and interesting MPs (that was both a long time ago), I was bored with the place.