South Carolina Politics Looks Past Affair to Its Effects on Governor Race

Gov. Mark Sanford, a Republican, walking back toward his office with his aides after his news conference last week in the Statehouse in Columbia, S.C.Credit
Anne McQuary for The New York Times

COLUMBIA, S.C. — The future of Gov. Mark Sanford’s political career after his secret trip to Argentina and admission of an extramarital affair may now depend on something more complicated than even the human heart: the wild and woolly politics of South Carolina.

The varied responses of state political leaders to the affair serve as clues to their alliances and complex interests. Some have called outright for the governor’s resignation, while others have suggested that the gentlemanly thing to do is give Mr. Sanford enough rope to hang himself.

Such remarks have less to do with Mr. Sanford’s flaws than with the 2010 race for governor, which already had a full field of contenders because Mr. Sanford was limited to two terms.

One likely candidate in particular, Lt. Gov. André Bauer, stands to gain if Mr. Sanford resigns, because he will fill the vacancy and be able to run for governor as an incumbent. His expected opponents in the Republican field want to prevent that by keeping Mr. Sanford in office, no matter how much animosity they may feel for him.

The intrigue, complete with e-mail messages plotting the governor’s demise and Twitter debates among high-level staff members, is playing out in a state with serious problems like extremely high unemployment, now led by a governor who has become a late-night television punch line.

“There are so many competing interests at work now, 24-7 — whether it’s the people who want the governor to stay, or people who want him to go,” said Katon Dawson, a former chairman of the state Republican Party. “It’s as rough as I’ve ever seen it — it’s mean, the long knives come out at night.”

On Sunday, standing outside his family’s home on Sullivan’s Island, Mr. Sanford told The Associated Press that he had considered resigning but decided against it.

That is good news for Attorney General Henry McMaster, Congressman J. Gresham Barrett and State Representative Nikki Haley, all Republican contenders for the governorship. Last week, Ms. Haley attacked Mr. Bauer, saying in a statement she feared for the conservative reform movement should he take office.

“South Carolina cannot afford to go back to the good old boy system that so badly serves the taxpayers and undermines our government,” she said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bauer’s camp appears to have been orchestrating pressure for a resignation.

“André Bauer is my client; I’ve been working this since Monday,” wrote Chris LaCivita, a political consultant on Mr. Bauer’s team, in an e-mail message to another Republican political operative that was provided to The New York Times by an opponent of Mr. Bauer. “I need to get this guy (Sanford) out,” he wrote, referring to the governor.

But Mr. LaCivita stumbled into the mare’s nest of South Carolina politics, apparently unaware that he was sending the message to an ally of Mr. McMaster, who has declined to call for the governor’s resignation and said that any investigation of the governor should be free of political motivations.

“On this, I can’t help you,” the recipient, Curt Anderson, a national political consultant, responded. “Henry McMaster has been a friend of mine for almost 20 years.”

Mr. LaCivita said he sent the message outside the context of the lieutenant governor’s official duties.

“This is me professionally seeking information and sources from people I thought I could trust,” he said. “This is completely outside the realm of what the lieutenant governor is doing, which is fulfilling his constitutional duties — something his opponents should follow his example on.”

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Mr. Bauer played down the prospect of taking over for Mr. Sanford on the Fox News program “Huckabee” this weekend, saying, “Nobody wants to become governor like this.”

The fight has trickled down to the many local Republican committees at the heart of the party. Forces loyal to Mr. Bauer have found common cause with those angry at Mr. Sanford, increasing calls for his resignation — hoping to put together a rally later this week — while those loyal to the other players have held their ground.

An organizer of the planned rally, Glenn McCall, the chairman of the York County Republican Party, said three other county Republican committees had signed on. But Lin Bennett, the chairwoman of the Charleston County Republicans, said there was no consensus, and her county would not join in.

“We’re in the let-he-who-has-not-sinned-cast-the-first-stone mode,” she said. “We just feel that our governor has been a good governor.”

For Democrats, the equation is less clear cut. On the one hand, having Mr. Sanford remain in office could help galvanize opposition to the Republican Party and boost the chances of State Representative Vincent Sheheen, one of the Democrats’ leading candidates.

On the other hand, Mr. Bauer is viewed by some Democrats as a weak opponent because he is well known to voters for such antics as driving at speeds exceeding 100 miles per hour and crashing a plane.

On Saturday, Carol Fowler, the chairwoman of the state Democratic Party, called not for Mr. Sanford’s resignation but for an investigation by Republican legislative leaders.

“Attorney General McMaster, who wants to be governor, has said he will not conduct an investigation, perhaps because he fears retribution from Republicans who still support Sanford,” she said.

Mr. McMaster is a client of Richard M. Quinn, one of the state’s powerful political consultants, who said the attorney general took his official responsibility too seriously to act in a political way. But Mr. McMaster’s staff did not stay totally above the fray. In a late-night Twitter message, Trey Walker, a McMaster aide, suggested that Democrats would “love to run against” Mr. Bauer. He then said Mr. Bauer should not be permitted to take over the governorship: “Cannot allow a disaster to be replaced with catastrophe.”

Rival Republican political aides pointed to the message as evidence that Mr. McMaster’s decision not to investigate Mr. Sanford was in his own interests, because an investigation could hasten a resignation.

Mr. Walker said he stood by his comments but was speaking as a longtime political operative, not as a representative of Mr. McMaster.

All parties agree the fight oddly has little to do with the man in the middle, Mr. Sanford, who has few friends to begin with in the party establishment. But the longer the fight goes on, the more space he gets to regain some footing.

Correction: June 30, 2009

Because of an editing error, an article on Monday about South Carolina politics in the aftermath of Gov. Mark Sanford’s affair misidentified the legislative post held by J. Gresham Barrett, a candidate for governor in the 2010 election. He is a United States representative, not a state representative.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A12 of the New York edition with the headline: South Carolina Politics Looks Past Affair to Its Effects on Governor Race. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe