OTC Advanced:

2016 Cap Analytics: Kansas City Chiefs

Expected Contract Outcomes – Expected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions. The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016. A pay cut is treated as a termination. We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options. Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Player

Position

Expected Outcome

Expected Savings

Marcus Peters

DB

100.0%

($57)

Travis Kelce

REC

99.8%

($18,922)

Jeremy Maclin

REC

99.3%

($46,565)

Justin Houston

F7

99.0%

($86,320)

Alex Smith

QB

98.8%

($85,200)

Allen Bailey

F7

97.6%

($18,743)

Dee Ford

F7

96.8%

($33,922)

Ron Parker

DB

95.7%

($17,200)

Eric Fisher

OL

94.5%

$0

Josh Mauga

F7

88.2%

$141,360

Paul Fanaika

OL

74.7%

$244,373

Dustin Colquitt

KP

63.4%

$1,043,955

Ben Grubbs

OL

54.8%

$496,870

Anthony Sherman

RB

50.2%

$498,500

Jamaal Charles

RB

48.3%

$2,746,563

Expected Change in Cap Room

+$4,864,692

True Cap Space – Realizable Cap Space depicts the total amount of salary cap space potentially at the team’s disposal in 2016, and True Cap Space makes further adjustments to take into consideration amounts that are accounted for in practical terms. Most True Cap Space will be used on players currently under contract as a result of the team choosing to not release them.

True Cap Space (2016)

Adjusted Salary Cap

$152,847,838

Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts

($26,752,,320)

Realizable Cap Space

$126,095,518

Fully Guaranteed Salary

($40,179,757)

Minimum Salary Cap Holds

($20,250,000)

True Cap Space

$65,665,761

League Rank

31st

Commitment Index – Commitment Index identifies the degree to which a team has “mortgaged its future” by measuring its net future salary cap commitments as a percentage of the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams. A Commitment Index Score of 100% is average, and a negative Commitment Index Score indicates that the team has more current salary cap space than future salary cap commitments. The Commitment Index Score of every team in the league changes to at least some degree with every transaction executed by any team in the league, so Commitment Index Score is measured as of a specific point in time (in this case, January 11, 2016).