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Home prices: No relief on horizon

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index says price declines are worsening, with no sign of slowing down.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

August 28 2007: 10:00 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices have shown few signs of any turnaround, and a new report sees the downward slide continuing.

On Tuesday, Standard and Poor's said its nationwide S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with a year ago. For the three months ended June 30, prices dropped 0.9 percent from the first quarter.

"The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down," Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC said in a statement. "The year-over-year decline reported in the 2nd quarter of 2007 for the National Home Price Index is the lowest point in its reported history, which dates back to January 1987."

The slump in housing prices began in mid-2005 when appreciation rates first started to slow and then reverse. During the past few months a credit crisis and a huge jump in default rates and foreclosures contributed to market declines.

Demand has fallen as home loans of all types have become harder to obtain, taking many potential home buyers off the market. First, it was subprime borrowers who began having trouble arranging financing. Then Alt-A mortgages (usually low- or no-doc loans) dried up.

Lenders have also tightened the screws on jumbo loans. These big-ticket mortgages do not have a guaranteed secondary market because they exceed the dollar limits that of loans Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the government sponsored agencies created by Congress to add liquidity to housing markets, will buy.

And, even though prices have declined and demand eased, affordability has improved only slightly during the past year. Many sellers have stubbornly stuck to listing prices suggested by the sales of comparable homes a year or more ago, despite price drops since. Overall, barely 43 percent of all homes on the market are affordable to local residents earning median household incomes, up from 40.6 percent a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Of the metro areas in the 20-city Case-Shiller index, only five have shown year-over-year price increases, with Seattle recording the highest rate of appreciation at 7.9 percent. Charlotte, North Carolina had a 6.8 percent rise and Portland, Oregon returned 4.5 percent.

The biggest year-over-year decline occurred in Detroit where homes lost 11.0 percent of their value. Other big losses were recorded by Tampa (-7.7 percent) and San Diego (-7.3 percent).