000
FXUS62 KTAE 022016
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A well-defined area of low pressure has been quite evident in radar
and satellite imagery today over the Apalachee Bay just off the
Taylor County coast. Shower activity has increased near the center
of the low, but the proximity to land and unfavorable winds aloft
will almost certainly prevent the system from becoming a tropical
depression, especially after it drifts inland. The National
Hurricane Center gives the system a 10% chance of development over
the next 48 hours. The low is progged to drift inland overnight and
weaken. Until that happens, tropical showers will continue to be
pulled into the flash floodwatch area, which will need to be
extended one more time to include the overnight hours. An additional
2-3 inches is forecast in Dixie County with isolated amounts up to 6
inches. Much of the county is already flooded, as is adjacent
southern Taylor County. Nighttime PoPs will range from 60 in Dixie
County to less than 20 across the northwestern half of the forecast
area.
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.
Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convectionisolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Ceilings should primarily be VFR this
afternoon, but any showers or storms could quickly lower them back
to MVFR. Another round of IFR ceilings is forecast late tonight at
VLD, TLH and possibly ABY.
&&
.Marine...
As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.
&&
.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns through this week.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.
The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.
Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 75 97 74 96 75 / 30 40 30 40 40
Panama City 78 91 78 90 79 / 20 30 20 30 30
Dothan 73 98 73 97 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
Albany 74 97 73 98 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
Valdosta 73 95 74 98 75 / 30 20 20 40 40
Cross City 75 90 75 92 75 / 60 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 78 92 78 91 78 / 30 30 30 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOODWATCH through Monday morning FOR Coastal Dixie-
Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette. HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
Franklin.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON