This course introduces students to seminal literature in the field of
security studies. It treats theory and policy as mutually reinforcing pursuits.

In connection with theory, the course emphasizes both rational choice
and bounded rationality approaches. It treats rational choice in the context
of deterrence and coercion. The course includes cognitive constraints on
rationality that explain why deterrence and coercion fail. Prospect theory
from the field of psychology is a main focus.

Also with respect to theory, the course addresses strategies of deterrence
and coercive diplomacy applied to international outlaws, such as states
that sponsor international terrorism and that engage in proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction (WMD), "rogue regimes." Also included are "freelancers"
who collude with rogue states spreading terror as well as creating nuclear,
biological, and chemical armaments.

During the Cold War, the Soviet threat was known, there was consensus
in the West on how to meet that threat. During the post–Cold War era, aggression
by regional states with large conventional forces, such as Iraq, was the
menace of the moment. With the defeat of Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait,
came the post–Gulf War era. Then, state–sponsored terrorism and proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction by rogue regimes constituted the main threat.
But there was much less accord on how to counter the rogue state threat.
During this time, free lancers operating from failing states became the
danger of the day. As the 21st Century opens, nonstate free lance terrorists
who seek to acquire and use chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction
are challenging rogue regimes as the main threat facing the United States.

At issue is what policies should Washington adopt to meet the new threats.
Extreme policies range from "doing nothing" to "doing too much," such as
sending ground combat troops. Midrange policies consist of adopting economic
sanctions and launching cruise missiles against suspect terrorist installations
and facilities for the construction of WMD.

A specific topic the class addresses is whether policies intended to
deter and coerce have the effect of provoking undesirable behavior. The
course discusses deterrence and coercion as strategic approaches to bargaining.
In addition, the course addresses persuasion and search as complementary
approaches to bargaining.

The class draws upon ideas from the fields of psychology, economics,
and political science to make
inferences about conditions for successful application of strategy
and persuasion.

In dispute is the relevance of concepts developed for superpower relations
to lesser threats. "Can a dog intended to fight a cat "lick" the kittens?"
Can American Cold War policies originally directed at the former Soviet
Union also deter rogue states like Iran, Iraq, and North Korea? Can policies
successfully implemented in Europe coerce a failed state like Afghanistan?
Is it possible to coerce nonstate freelancers? Given the fact that weapons
of mass destruction are not politically usable by a superpower, what would
deter and compel a country like Iraq or a freelance terrorist?

The strategy of coercive diplomacy aimed to induce states to cease undesirable
behavior or to take an action the United States favored. In the post-Cold
War period, deterrence and coercion appear to be less
applicable: Because of the breakup of empires and the presence of failed
states, international actors are less amenable to strategic threats and
promises. In contrast to such strategic action, persuasion seeks to change
behavior by convincing others that it is in their own best interest to
act.

Persuasion or its antithesis, military action, rather than strategy
may be the guiding principles of the new world order. Because challengers
are less concerned with relative capabilities, resolve, and risk calculations
than in the Cold War, they are less subject to strategy. Similarly, they
are more constrained by their cognitive structures and thus not as influenced
by threats of punishment and promises of reward.

Washington's battle to limit trade with rogue states confronts Moscow's
willingness to trade with them. And in the post-Cold War relaxation of
tensions, American allies also engage in trade with "rogue regimes." As
a result, Washington charges that the allies facilitate international terrorism
and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The allies counter that
America creates enemies by isolating states with which it has political
differences.

The course begins with a discussion of themes like bargaining theory,
deterrence, and coercive diplomacy.

Lecture Notes are available under Fall 1998 Notes and Instructions at:

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~rtanter/F98PS472Notes/

NOTE-TAKING

Please learn to take notes using a word processing program. Prior to
a class, see
notes on the topics to be covered in that class. Upon entering
the class,
copy and paste the day's notes into a word processing document.
The students' own notes on the material presented in class that day
may then
be added to the lecture notes. Students should save their work for
that
day to their IFS home directory.

On an IBM machine with Windows NT, your IFS home directory may be
found on the desktop. In addition, when saving a file to your
IFS home directory,
you may go to the H:\ drive to save the file. The H:\ drive is
your IFS home
space.

GRADING

Grades for this course derive from scores earned via midterm exam (35%),
a
research paper (35%), class participation (10%) and participation in
Conferencing
on the Web -- COW (20%):

Graders calculate scores for COW based upon quantity––frequency with
which you nest an
argument within the context of colleagues' thoughts and the extent
to
which they take your ideas into account when framing their own. These
grades also include an assessment of the quality of argumentation and
an
indication that participants conducted Internet research to locate
primary sources. Before drawing an inference or advocating an option, students
should search for documents.

Before using a web Search Engine like AltaVista, Excite, or Yahoo!,
access:

1) All students MUST obtain an e-mail account immediately. Without this
account it is not possible to participate in this class. In rare instances,
course administrators may communicate via a class email group. Instructions
for joining and leaving this group are at:

2) Participants should complete readings before the date on the syllabus.

3) Students should select the topic upon which they wish to conduct
research and place a research question on COW by 14 October. By 28
October, students should post a draft outline on COW.

The final paper must be posted on the PS
472 Fall 1998 Term Papers page and delivered in hard copy
on the last day of class, 9 December. With respect to style, all papers
should be double spaced, in 14 point font, full justification, and in HTML.

4) Students should be prepared to discuss their research on appropriate
class dates. Students will benefit from class and COW concerning
paper topics.

TERM PAPER

Students should choose an actor on which to write their papers. That
actor might be a state or a nonstate entity or person that is in conflict
with the United States.

Before choosing a topic or actor, see other contributions to knowledge
from prior ps472 and ps498 students, e.g., at:

Wednesday 28 OCT No Lecture; Lab assignment for research outline due
on COW

Haas: Foreword, Introduction,
Conclusion

Monday 2 NOV--PLOT:

From Cold War to post-Cold War From Moscow versus Washington to Washington
versus Tehran, Baghdad, Tripoli, Damascus, Havana, Pyongyang. Is the rogue
state threat overestimated for budgetary reasons by the Pentagon?

Michael Klare -- Pay particular
attention to endnotes.

Chapter 1. In Pursuit of
Enemies: The Remaking of U.S. Military Strategy

Chapter 2. Operation Desert
Storm: The Liquidation of a Rogue State

Wednesday 4 NOV--PLOT:

Klare:

Chapter 3. The True Path to
Victory: Lessons of Desert Storm

Chapter 4. Fighting "Demons
and Dangers": Military Policy in the Clinton Era

Monday 9 NOV--PLOT:

Klare:

Chapter 5. Rogues, Outlaws,
and Hegemons: A Pentagon Roster of the "Iraqs of the Future"

Chapter 6. The Ambivalent
Crusade: Washington's War Against Proliferation

Wednesday 11 NOV

Klare: Chapter 7, Beyond
the Rogues: Military Doctrine in a World of Chaos

Preface and Chapter 1--Personality, Politics, and Policies. (Pay close
attention to endnotes in all the chapters.)

Wednesday 18 NOV--PLOT:

From East-West tensions to North-South conflicts: From the threat of
nuclear war and crises between Superpower proxies to the danger of terrorism
and the menace of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by rogue
regimes and freelance terrorists and proliferators.