According to The Advisory Board, their analysis indicates that 850 hospitals can expect to at least break even after considering VBP and readmissions in aggregate, yet 184 of those hospitals (roughly 5% of all hospitals in the program) can expect a negative net P4P impact, solely due to the (proposed) HAC penalty. These estimates indicate this subset of hospitals would see an average loss of over $200,000, with the largest estimated single loss totaling more than $1.6 million.

Although HAC penalties are judged at the individual hospital level, a quick look at the dataindicates that some states fared better than others. For states with at least 10 hospitals, Utah,Connecticut, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Oregon have the highest proportion of HAC penalties. The states with the lowest proportion of hospitals facing a HAC penalty includeAlabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennesee, and South Dakota.