Executive Briefings

Consumer Spending Poised to Take Off Among Mexico's Growing Middle Class

By: Boston Consulting Group 05.01.2015

For the past decade, Mexico has been making quiet - but steady - economic progress. Overcoming a history of financial turbulence, the country has generated modest growth, maintained fiscal stability, and quickly recovered from the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Mexico's gains, however, have yet to translate into the surge of consumer spending witnessed in several other big emerging markets. Indeed, despite an improving economy, roughly half of the Mexican households recently surveyed said that they plan to tighten their belts in the near future.

The socioeconomic conditions are aligning for Mexico's takeoff in consumer spending. Thanks to favorable demographics and growing affluence, millions of households are joining Mexico's middle class. What's more, research shows that the overwhelming majority of these families are optimistic about the future and determined to build a better life. We project that, as long as Mexico's public and private sectors take the actions needed to promote stable economic growth, consumption by Mexico's middle class will surge by around 7 percent annually through the end of the decade and account for around 93 percent of incremental demand.

But in which product categories is consumption likely to surge? When are these takeoffs likely to occur? And what should companies be doing to position their product lines, retail channels, and marketing messages to capture the opportunities in a consumer market that we project will surpass $325 billion in 2018?

The socioeconomic conditions are aligning for Mexico's takeoff in consumer spending. Thanks to favorable demographics and growing affluence, millions of households are joining Mexico's middle class. What's more, research shows that the overwhelming majority of these families are optimistic about the future and determined to build a better life. We project that, as long as Mexico's public and private sectors take the actions needed to promote stable economic growth, consumption by Mexico's middle class will surge by around 7 percent annually through the end of the decade and account for around 93 percent of incremental demand.

But in which product categories is consumption likely to surge? When are these takeoffs likely to occur? And what should companies be doing to position their product lines, retail channels, and marketing messages to capture the opportunities in a consumer market that we project will surpass $325 billion in 2018?