Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270754
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN/SRN
SD...NRN NEB...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/ WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY MON. AN
INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET /AROUND 100 MPH AT 500 MB/ ON THE SWRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS WRN/CNTRL ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z MON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN/SRN SD...NRN
NEB...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
TROPOSPHERIC KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE QUITE INTENSE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NEB TODAY...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS AOA 20 MPH. HOWEVER...LOW RH /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE
CONFINED TO A MORE NARROW AXIS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGEST
FLOW...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF LOW
RH...AND LATEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS CORRIDOR WILL RUN FROM ERN
MT INTO NRN NEB DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH AND RESULT IN A HIGH-END TO
LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 09/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 270927
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE...FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRACK
FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH EARLY TUE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ORE...FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS TO
MODERATE DROUGHT
LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MON. TEMPERATURES WARMING PRIMARILY
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.
...N-CNTRL MT...
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING MON
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID
IN SUSTAINED SELY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES
FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT.
...E-CNTRL/S-CNTRL NV...
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL NOT INCREASE TO THE DEGREE OF
THE CRITICAL AREA TO THE NW...A SHORT-DURATION OF MODERATE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS /FROM 15 TO 20 MPH/ SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON GIVEN VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS WILL
BE JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT AND RESULT IN AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 09/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...