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6/08/2012 @ 5:55PM2,139 views

Obama, Aquino and the Deep Dark Seas

President Obama sealed a meeting today with visiting Philippine President Benigno Aquino III in a pledge to continue shoring up the Southeast Asian ally’s weak naval flank. The White House promised more technical and military support on top of the transferred Coast Guard craft that brushed up against a Chinese fishing fleet in recent days in contested waters in the South China Sea. Filipinos saw the incident as the latest in a string of resource-territorial inroads by the Chinese.

The Philippines-China disputes, and the presence of the U.S. in them, are described in depth in an article in today’s Wall Street Journal (this may be behind a paywall). But the ongoing South China Sea maneuvering involves not just Manila but the other members of ASEAN*, too, directly or indirectly. Vietnam, especially, has a history of rubs with China, including outright military conflict. Today it contests China over fishing and energy riches. Yet like most nations in the region, Vietnam is torn when it comes to the rising regional power–China is by far its biggest trading partner. The Chinese have amassed powerful suasion.

But the U.S. has many cards to play as well. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was wrapping up a swing through Asia as Aquino met with his boss. The military minister visited Singapore, where America looks to expand its naval ties, Vietnam and India. The Singapore stop included a larger annual meeting called Shangri-La, a pan-Asian “security dialogue.” That event puts the South China Sea matters in a larger framework that includes North Asia (Sea of Japan), the Taiwan and Malacca straits and the Indian Ocean. All of which happens also to involve China, whether anyone likes it or not.

With its massive military buildup, and of course its impressive economic might, China is pursuing a grand strategy in all directions. It seeks to wean Japan away from a Westward focus with enticing commercial lures. (Ditto Australia, with more difficulty.) It holds whatever sway can be held on North Korea, and is therefore vital to Seoul. It is playing a waiting game (let us hope) with Taiwan over ultimate unification. It plays different cards with each of the ASEAN nations, often with fewer friction points than occur with the Philippines and Vietnam. (The cases of Malaysia and Thailand will be particularly key to watch.) It keeps Burmese interests close even as that country’s generals fitfully open to the larger world and their own people as well. And it moves, through Pakistan especially, to outflank historic rival India and reach natural and secure trading routes.

(China meantime also is looking east, to Central Asia and its resource riches, where it is trying to broker a complementary role with Russia. China and Russia have one of the world’s most complex relationships–as diplomatic allies, arms-selling competitors and economic counterweights.)

As with any intricate weave of rights, grievances, ethnic strains and geography, the economic and military chess of the Asian oceans has its share of ironies. One of them: well-situated Taiwan, being of course the Republic of China, is by historical imperative a natural ally of Beijing when its comes to territorial claims by non-Chinese. But the mainland cannot make formal use of Taiwan’s good offices, because People’s Republic of China protocol holds that there is no Republic of China and hence no seat at the table.

Quirks aside, this jockeying for regional power and position is a serious business. There are treaty obligations between the U.S. and the Philippines that could be a tripwire. The rules of engagement that normally govern armed forces are clouded by the fact that China employs layers of quasi-military commercial forces at the maritime front lines. (This, in turn, might be a blessing if shooting starts and China can deny that its own navy was involved, thus saving face short of full-on hostilities.)

In the medium to long term, where should this push and pull lead? To an Asia of free trade and rule of law, is the Washington mantra. China will be the most important piece. But others will be given space to grow, even as the mainland drops some of its Communist Party strictures and resource-hoarding tendencies, both of which disrupt normal commerce. The U.S. stays present to provide a comfort factor and discourage the kind of populist zeal that always has the potential to stir age-old hatreds and bring Asia to internecine violence and destruction again.

Is that a pollyannish scenario? Is the U.S. instead embarked on a “containment” course vis a vis China that is every bit as resource-focused as the Chinese enlargement push? Or, alternatively, is Washington merely patting the heads of ASEAN leaders, propping up the dominoes for as long as it can while it engineers a budget-constrained strategic retreat to its North American bunker? (In other words, is Obama’s “Asian pivot” merely a feint?)

The truth probably lies somewhere between the ideal and the cynical. There will be troubles ahead, perhaps skirmishes and unfortunately lots of precious resources wasted on armaments. Amid all this, industrious people will find a way to do business and enjoy a better life. Time is usually on the side of reason or at worst exhaustion. And in the narrow gauge of the current tempest in the South China Sea, the calendar is also a positive factor: Typhoon season will soon be upon us and the waters will be inhospitable to everybody’s fishing boats.

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For me this article was typical of so much of what one sees online these days–it didn’t really say anything. At least, nothing that everybody didn’t already know long ago. Then, it ended with a whimper: “don’t worry, everything will be okay.” However, I don’t think so. The underlying causes of war are invariably related to economics, and in that respect the world of today has never been so unstable, so unbalanced, so wrecked and so messed up.

Just two weeks ago Defense Secretary Panetta announced in Singapore that the U.S. will deploy to the Asia-Pacific region an additional of 10% of combined U.S. naval power–to bring the total regional commitment to 60% of all resources–by 2020. Does this mean that the U.S. has accepted the inevitability of a naval arms race with China and is determined to win it? I think it is the opposite. The U.S. is establishing a negotiating position for a 1920s-style Washington Conference at which (we may hope) agreement will be reached on maximum armaments levels, and a ruinous arms race avoided. Nothing in the largely symbolic outcome the Obama-Aquino talks alters this scenario.