Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Oregon State vs. Oregon

Game-day: 12/3/2009

Game-time: 9:00 pm EST

The only two teams capable of winning the Pac-10, the Oregon State Beavers and the Oregon Ducks, face off this Thursday at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.

The Ducks have lost only twice this season, to the Stanford Cardinal and the Boise State Broncos. They are fresh off of a fantastic 44 to 41 overtime victory over the Arizona Wildcats, and should be geared up to get into the Rose Bowl. Their top rivals, the Oregon State Beavers, will have something to say about that.

Oregon vs. Oregon State is one of the little known rivalries in college football. Dubbed the Civil War, the game between Oregon and Oregon State is the 7th oldest rivalry game in college football. It was first played in 1894.

The Ducks lead in the series overall 56-46-10 but in Eugene, surprisingly, things have been very close, Oregon is up on Oregon State 25-23-3. That should really tell how close these two teams have been in this game.

Let’s take a look at the BetUS football betting odds in this game.

Oregon State Beavers +9 ½ -110 +300 O 62 -110

Oregon Ducks -9 ½ -110 -370 U 62 -110

Here are a few NCAA football betting trends for this game:

* The Oregon State Beavers are 13 and 3 against the spread in their last 16 games following a bye week.
* The Oregon Ducks are 5 and 0 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.
* The Oregon State Beavers are 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record.
* The Over is 7 and 0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
* The key in figuring out the best bet in this game is to understand which team will be on this Thursday.

That’s easy, actually. Both teams will be on so to speak. Oregon hasn’t put up less than 40 points in 5 straight games. The Beavers have put up over 40 points in two straight games.

When it comes to the stop game, neither Oregon nor Oregon State is all that great. Oregon’s defense is ranked 28th in college football and gives up, on average, 23 points a game. When facing a team that doesn’t put up a lot of points, the Ducks do okay, keeping UCLA to 10 and Washington State to 6 in their games against those teams this year, but the Ducks also gave up 51 points to Stanford and 41 points to Arizona.

Oregon State, overall, has done much better defensively than Oregon lately allowing 19 to UCLA, 14 to California, 21 to Washington and 10 to Washington State. What it shows is that the Beavers are capable of playing a defensive, well as defensive as possible, game if they need to.

What that means is that betting the total might not be the best wager in this game. What is then?

Oregon State has won four games in a row including a victory over California at California. Not only that, but Oregon State actually beat Stanford this season 38 to 28. Oregon couldn’t get past Stanford.