Well the time frame has been pretty consistently inconsistent. Their window original puts it at 2 to 3 months. But we've had quite a few delays this season so it's really anyone's guess.

Super Adventure Box begins around April 1st and will probably last a month, so if it isn't March it's probably going to be may. May would be... 4 months? What was episode 2 to 3 gap? Was it 4 or 5 months? And the same team, so given that, the fact that it's the final of the season, and the SAB, as much as I would like it to be in March I wouldn't be surprised to see it in May. Especially given they're jumping into another season instead of an expansion.

People just insist that the beginning of a third month is the release date and from that point begin counting for the next three month cycle. So its always late to them. The cycle starts counting the day a chapter comes out, not at the earliest point in the release time window.

The release schedule is 1 episode every 2-3 months. Meaning a minimum of 2 months, and a maximum of 3, unless there's problems which delay it. Also new releases are always on a Tuesday.

All or Nothing came out on the 8th of January. So episode 6 will not be any time before 8th March, but that's a Friday, so it would be the 12th at the earliest. It could be any time between then and the 2nd (or, if you allow 1 day extra in the 3 month window, the 9th) of April without being late.

If it's going to be later than that they'll tell us. But within that period we shouldn't expect to hear anything until they're ready to announce the episode, which is usually 1-2 weeks before it's released.

Danielle Aurorel - Desolation EU. Mini Collector.

"I know that I'm born and I know that I'll die, the in-between is mine."

Daybreak - November 28, 2017
A bug in the system - March 6, 2018 - 3months 1 week after Daybreak
Long live the lich - June 26, 2018 - 3months 2 weeks after A bug in the system
A star to guide us - September 18, 2018 2months 3weeks after long live the lich
All or nothing - January 8, 2019 - 3months 3 weeks after A star to guide us

I'd say next episode will release on mid or late April after super adventure box.

Wiki page has an episode 6 TBA on it and a lot of people say it's confirmed.

Considering the way the last episode ended though I'd be more than content to call that the season finale and move on to the next season.
Certianly felt like a finale to me.

I don't know what to expect from episode 6 in all honesty.. but I highly doubt it'll be as epic as All or Nothing was.. that's going to be one hell of a hard episode to top.
I guess the next episode will be kinda filler to setup the next season.. although if the Story is going where I predict it is then it'll still be a good episode with some cool setups

Ep5 was also delayed to avoid the down beat tone coinciding with Xmas. That may or may not bring forward the date

What sleep is here? What dreams there are in the unctuous coiling of the snakes mortal shuffling. weapon in my hand. My hand the arcing deathblow at the end of all things. The horror. The horror. I embrace it. . .

@Randulf.7614 said:
Ep5 was also delayed to avoid the down beat tone coinciding with Xmas. That may or may not bring forward the date

I didn't realise that was the reason, but it definitely makes sense. That ending, followed immediately by "Yay! Wintersday! Time to celebrate!" would be quite jarring and I can imagine some people might complain it's inappropriate.

Danielle Aurorel - Desolation EU. Mini Collector.

"I know that I'm born and I know that I'll die, the in-between is mine."

@Randulf.7614 said:
Ep5 was also delayed to avoid the down beat tone coinciding with Xmas. That may or may not bring forward the date

I didn't realise that was the reason, but it definitely makes sense. That ending, followed immediately by "Yay! Wintersday! Time to celebrate!" would be quite jarring and I can imagine some people might complain it's inappropriate.

Whether that was the only reason, I don't know. When it was raised during the AFC, a sly wink was replied by the devs so it's clear it was a factor

What sleep is here? What dreams there are in the unctuous coiling of the snakes mortal shuffling. weapon in my hand. My hand the arcing deathblow at the end of all things. The horror. The horror. I embrace it. . .

Didn't see the obligatory "When it's ready"-Answer so here it is. Bye.

If you want X, and Y is needed to get get X, you also have to want Y if you really want X. If you don't want Y, you don't want X. It's easy.Pro: Build Templates, Dungeon Rework, UW contentContra: New Races, New Classes, New Weapons, Capes

@Randulf.7614 said:
Ep5 was also delayed to avoid the down beat tone coinciding with Xmas. That may or may not bring forward the date

It would also have been delayed if it wasn’t such a happy episode, because it was wintersday.
The weeks after the release are also very busy with fixing bugs, game issues, and design flaws.
There are always thing you can’t acount for in a test setting.

They intentionally waited till after the festive season calmed down. And it was fine, because the festive season
maintains itself pretty well ingame.

To defeat the dragons, see the good in them.
Zhaitan reunites lost ones, primordus creates fertile land, mordremoth spreads the green, and jormag..
..jormag? Who's that?

While there are some possible reasons for an optimistic launch date in mid-March, it does sound like April would be likely for a few reasons. I don't think SAB is one, since it'll probably have the same content as last year. But if double-booking is not a thing, then I'm going to bet on mid-April for S4E6.

[Edit: I do have this horrible suspicion it's going to come forward due to the delay of the last episode, and clash with the release of something else I want to play...]

One thing that might affect it is that Seattle is currently frozen (pun intended) by a massive snow storm.

I'm not sure what exactly the impact on Anet is but I know a lot of businesses are either closed or have very few staff because people simply can't get in. (The weather is very unusual for that part of the world so the infrastructure isn't there to deal with it - they don't have enough/any snow ploughs, people don't have snow tires for their cars etc. - and since the whole place is basically hills sloping down to the sea people are very cautious about taking the chances.)

I know the release is still a long way away, but if being unable to work on it now puts them a week behind (approximately) they may not be able to catch up to release on time.

Danielle Aurorel - Desolation EU. Mini Collector.

"I know that I'm born and I know that I'll die, the in-between is mine."

@Daddicus.6128 said:
I thought they were going to LW Season 5 after episode 5.

@Daddicus.6128 said:
No, I thought it was an official statement from the company, that it would go directly to Season 5. Can't remember where I saw it though, and I may be mis-paraphrasing it.

The going to season 5 directly after season 4 has been officially announced. However, the number of episodes for either haven’t. The first clue that we got about season 4 having six was when they announced around episode 3 that they were halfway through the season. Then again they mentioned a sixth episode was being worked on during a recent guild chat.

4 out of the last 5 episodes were all above 3 months, so my estimate isn't far off.
Season 3 episode 6; July 25th, 2017
Episode 1; November 28, 2017 = 4 months, 3 days later
Episode 2; March 6, 2018 =3 months, 1 week, 2 days later
Episode 3; June 26, 2018 = 3 months, 2 weeks, 6 days later
Episode 4; September 18, 2018 = 2 month, 3 weeks, 2 days later
Episode 5; January 8, 2019 = 3 months, 3 weeks later
Episode 6; April 16th to 30th, by the time it does come out season 4 will have taken, 1 year and 9 months approximately.
I sincerely hope season 5 will not take as long or hopefully the 3rd expansion will be in between episodes, if not we are looking at a disastrous possible
launch window of January 2021 for the 3rd expansion which would cause a lot of players to bail out.

No they have not, 4 out of 5 releases were above 3 months one of them even above 4 months, based on that the 2 to 3 months window is no longer valid.
All this is caused, I think in part that the maps are way bigger than they used to be, which is I think a good thing.
The down side is bigger maps = more time.

No they have not, 4 out of 5 releases were above 3 months one of them even above 4 months, based on that the 2 to 3 months window is no longer valid.
All this is caused, I think in part that the maps are way bigger than they used to be, which is I think a good thing.
The down side is bigger maps = more time.

Those look like 3 month gaps between episodes to me. Pretty consistent.

@Glider.5792 said:
Either it will release in middle of March, or SAB will come realy early this year (middle of march) and last around 3 weeks. If SAB comes early, ep6 will release in the middle of April.

4 out of the last 5 episodes were all above 3 months, so my estimate isn't far off.
Season 3 episode 6; July 25th, 2017
Episode 1; November 28, 2017 = 4 months, 3 days later
Episode 2; March 6, 2018 =3 months, 1 week, 2 days later
Episode 3; June 26, 2018 = 3 months, 2 weeks, 6 days later
Episode 4; September 18, 2018 = 2 month, 3 weeks, 2 days later
Episode 5; January 8, 2019 = 3 months, 3 weeks later
Episode 6; April 16th to 30th, by the time it does come out season 4 will have taken, 1 year and 9 months approximately.
I sincerely hope season 5 will not take as long or hopefully the 3rd expansion will be in between episodes, if not we are looking at a disastrous possible
launch window of January 2021 for the 3rd expansion which would cause a lot of players to bail out.

No they have not, 4 out of 5 releases were above 3 months one of them even above 4 months, based on that the 2 to 3 months window is no longer valid.
All this is caused, I think in part that the maps are way bigger than they used to be, which is I think a good thing.
The down side is bigger maps = more time.

Id say 3 out of 5 episodes so far have gone over 3 months. Based on the time between content updates ofc because thats what matters and not the time between each episodes.

Between ep6 and ep1 pof released on September making the episode 1 take aprox 2 and smth months.

Still episodes 2,3 and 5 were delayed. Which as you said is them being inconsistent.

I also dont agree that bigger means better, these maps have the size but i argue they dont have the content and replayability necesarily.

@Glider.5792 said:
Either it will release in middle of March, or SAB will come realy early this year (middle of march) and last around 3 weeks. If SAB comes early, ep6 will release in the middle of April.

They can and have LW chapters release to overlap seasonal events.

They can, but dont want to, or at least is a really bad choice. Why put 2 content releases in the same patch, when you can span them over 8 weeks without losing anything, yet delay the "content drought" with it. LS hype is already dead after 1-2 weeks for most players.
The main point is, they want to span out content, so that they retain players for longer. Alot of people come back during major patches, so if they release LS and a Festival at the same time, those players will come back, play for a week, and then dissapear again. Meanwhile, if those 2 are spanned out, they will return again shortly after for the other major release.

I hope for their sake that they are working on an expansion, not working on one is like playing Russian roulette. If their intent were to make LS bigger and more fun and eventually charging a DLC price they would loose me perma... I will never pay for DLC here as long as it's only a n LS episode.
Since Anet as usual is unwilling to tell it like it is. Here's the possible scenario.
a) episode 6 in April.
Possible outcome Kralkatorrik die
August / September season 5.1
The story might bring us to Jormag or Primordius or Bubbles
if the story brings us to bubbles without an expansion, that will mean the end of expansions and me coming here.

12 March - 9 April it's the time frame we can expect it to be released, there can be delays as well, so let's just wait. It's the Finale so they will probably need more time than usual, maybe we can even wait until May.

@Hybarf Tics.2048 said:
I hope for their sake that they are working on an expansion, not working on one is like playing Russian roulette. If their intent were to make LS bigger and more fun and eventually charging a DLC price they would loose me perma... I will never pay for DLC here as long as it's only a n LS episode.
Since Anet as usual is unwilling to tell it like it is. Here's the possible scenario.
a) episode 6 in April.
Possible outcome Kralkatorrik die
August / September season 5.1
The story might bring us to Jormag or Primordius or Bubbles
if the story brings us to bubbles without an expansion, that will mean the end of expansions and me coming here.

my speculation for the outcome after the Season 4's finale will be the War between Races and the Commander will be left completely alone proving his worth to everybody he can, but won't be able to stop the preparation between the Anti-Dragon vs Anti-KillingDragon Factions.

Also the Finale will put the Commander on the lose position, no one will ever care about what we say. I doubt there is still any hope for Aurene to return, only nothingness will remain.

But well, we still have the last beacon of hope - the Pale Tree, so maybe she'll give us a clue.

I think if anything we will see Aurene come back, we’ll kill Kralk in his old resting spot, and it will somehow lead to a charr war fighting over excess magic or something. Though theoretically there wouldn’t be that much excess magic because Aurene would have done her thing.

Or who knows. Maybe Kralk is really an illusion created by Lyssa and we’re all really in a vision created by Kralk, and this is all just a fractal that’s been messed up by Ark, and Ark is really Scarlett, and we’re alp still trapped in Mordremoths mind.

@cptaylor.2670 said:
I think if anything we will see Aurene come back, we’ll kill Kralk in his old resting spot, and it will somehow lead to a charr war fighting over excess magic or something. Though theoretically there wouldn’t be that much excess magic because Aurene would have done her thing.

Or who knows. Maybe Kralk is really an illusion created by Lyssa and we’re all really in a vision created by Kralk, and this is all just a fractal that’s been messed up by Ark, and Ark is really Scarlett, and we’re alp still trapped in Mordremoths mind.

@cptaylor.2670 said:
Well the time frame has been pretty consistently inconsistent. Their window original puts it at 2 to 3 months. But we've had quite a few delays this season so it's really anyone's guess.

Super Adventure Box begins around April 1st and will probably last a month, so if it isn't March it's probably going to be may. May would be... 4 months? What was episode 2 to 3 gap? Was it 4 or 5 months? And the same team, so given that, the fact that it's the final of the season, and the SAB, as much as I would like it to be in March I wouldn't be surprised to see it in May. Especially given they're jumping into another season instead of an expansion.

TBH, it's been pretty consistent. Average of 11 weeks baring delays (only 2 episodes have had delays longer than a week: Long Live the Lich and All or Nothing) or held back due to festival (this is rare, as they've done this once). The longest delay being for Long Live the Lich which was 17 weeks. The other delay was simply due to bad timing with holidays.

People like to bemoan about how ArenaNet's constantly delaying but... at most, with exception of the two above, releases have never been longer than 13 weeks, and only one has been at 13 weeks itself (due to technical problems). Granted, excluding the first three releases, I don't think they've been under 10 releases either (EDIT: Daybreak was).

That said, will last 3 weeks as all festivals do. Given All or Nothing launched January 8th, we'd expect a March 5th to April 9th release. If SAB follows standard set up and launches the Tuesday before to April 1st, then we'll likely see SAB lasting from March 26th to April 9th. Unless they consider overlapping with SAB fine while not so with Wintersday then we'll see Episode 6 on one of the following dates:

March 5th

March 12th

April 23rd

As ArenaNet seldom (if ever) has content within 2 weeks of itself. So before 2 weeks before SAB or 2 weeks after. Technically April 16th is plausible, but imo highly unlikely (as unlikely as Anet releasing Ep6 during SAB). Gives us 3 possibilities. Baring no delays for technical issues.

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