FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header

Definition

wspi

Women's Soccer Power Index

wspi_offense

Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating

wspi_defense

Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating

group_first

Chance of coming in first place in the group stage

group_second

Chance of coming in second place in the group stage

group_third_advance

Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage

group_third_no_advance

Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage

group_fourth

Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage

sixteen

Chance of advancing to the knockout stage

quarter

Chance of advancing to the quarter finals

semi

Chance of advancing to the semi-finals

cup

Chance of making it to the final game

win

Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.