PRINCETON, NJ -- It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

The race for president has been virtually tied since mid-August. In this period, Obama's support from national registered voters has consistently ranged from 44% to 46%. The 46% currently supporting McCain is technically his best showing since late May/early June, but is not a statistically significant improvement over his recent range from 43% to 45%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.

All of these bounces occurred before the respective party's convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama's support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.

The official Gallup records will show that support for Obama declined by two percentage points in Gallup Poll Daily tracking (from 46% to 44%) conducted immediately before and after the Aug. 23 Biden announcement. (Because the announcement was made at 3 a.m. on Saturday, Aug. 23, all Gallup interviewing conducted that day can be considered post announcement.)

Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking result includes interviewing on the first night of the Democratic National Convention (Aug. 25). However, much of this interviewing, particularly in the East and Midwest, was conducted before the prime time convention speeches by Sen. Ted Kennedy and Michelle Obama. The Gallup Poll Daily tracking results reported tomorrow may start to indicate whether voters are impressed enough by what they are seeing at the convention to give Obama the bounce that typically occurs as a result of a party's convention. -- Lydia Saad

Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug. 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,684 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

GenLee

08-26-2008, 10:59 AM

Yippee, now add how bad he will undoubtably blow it at the DNC. and he is sure to self enihilate. :D

.454

08-26-2008, 11:07 AM

McCain leads Obama post Biden

The DailyKos / Moveon.org leftist crowds reaction to the news:

http://www.mapsites.net/gotham01/webpages/gabbyl/panic.jpg

GenLee

08-26-2008, 11:13 AM

It ain't over till it's over...

Blah blah blah, firecaptdave the socialist, Blah blah blah we get it already.

.454

08-26-2008, 11:16 AM

It ain't over till it's over...

Oh yes, it is.
I am actually surprised the Obama fluff bubble took so long to burst. The man is an empty suit, a gaffe machine, a leftwing media creation who he fails miserably when he cannot read the same old platitudes about "hope and change" from a teleprompter.

;)

.454

08-26-2008, 11:20 AM

Well you're keeping him alive with your endless posts about him. We have you to thank for that!

Well, thanks for your appreciation. Doing my best to keep customers like you happy.

;)

mecam

08-26-2008, 11:22 AM

I think BO is done.

Obama seeks to silence ad tying him to 60s radical

http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Aug25/0,4670,CVNObamaAyersAd,00.html

DENVER — Barack Obama is striking back fiercely and swiftly to stamp out an ad that links him to a 1960s radical, eager to demonstrate a far more aggressive response to attacks than John Kerry did when faced with the 2004 "Swift Boat" campaign.

Obama not only aired a response ad to the spot linking him to William Ayers, but he sought to block stations the commercial by warning station managers and asking the Justice Department to intervene. The campaign also planned to compel advertisers to pressure stations that continue to air the anti-Obama commercial.

It's the type of going-for-the-jugular approach to politics many Democrats complain that Kerry lacked and that Republicans exploit.

Obama's target is an ad by the conservative American Issues Project, a nonprofit group that questions Obama's ties to Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground organization that took credit for a series of bombings, including nonfatal explosions at the Pentagon and U.S. Capitol four decades ago.

The lone financier of the anti-Obama ad, Texas billionaire Harold Simmons, was also one of the main funders of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth who targeted Kerry. Simmons, a McCain fundraiser, contributed nearly $2.9 million to the American Issues Project, according to documents filed by the group with the Federal Election Commission.

Fox News and CNN have declined to air the anti-Obama ad. But by Monday afternoon, the ad had run about 150 times in local markets in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Michigan, according to Evan Tracey, head of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, an ad tracking firm.

Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said Obama supporters have inundated stations that are airing the ad, many of them owned by Sinclair Communications, with 93,000 e-mails. He called the ad false, despicable and outrageous.

"Other stations that follow Sinclair's lead should expect a similar response from people who don't want the political discourse cheapened with these false, negative attacks," Vietor said.

Sinclair offices were closed late Monday and officials there could not be immediately contacted.

"It seems they protest a bit too much," American Issues Project spokesman Christian Pinkston said. "They're going all of these routes _ through threats, intimation _ to try to thwart the First Amendment here because they don't have an argument on merit."

Ayers is now a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He and Obama live in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood and served together on the board of the Woods Fund, a Chicago-based charity that develops community groups to help the poor. Obama left the board in December 2002.

Obama also was the first chairman of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, a school reform group of which Ayers was a founder. Ayers also held a meet-the-candidate event at his home for Obama when Obama first ran for office in the mid-1990s.

Obama has denounced Ayers' past activities.

"Barack Obama is friends with Ayers, defending him as, quote, 'Respectable' and 'Mainstream,'" the group's ad states. "Obama's political career was launched in Ayers' home. And the two served together on a left-wing board. Why would Barack Obama be friends with someone who bombed the Capitol and is proud of it? Do you know enough to elect Barack Obama?"

In a letter to station managers, Obama campaign lawyer Robert Bauer wrote: "Your station is committed to operating in the public interest, an objective that cannot be satisfied by accepting for compensation material of such malicious falsity."

Bauer also wrote to Deputy Assistant Attorney General John C. Keeney, noting that the ad is a "knowing and willful attempt to evade the strictures of federal election law."

The campaign's aggressive tactics could draw more attention to a subject the campaign wants to go away. On Tuesday, the University of Illinois at Chicago will make available records of Obama's service on the board of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge. The group was set up to improve the city's schools. The documents could shed further light on whether Obama and Ayers had a relationship.

The American Issues Project is a 501(c)4 nonprofit corporation. It is permitted by law to air a political ad provided that the majority of its spending is nonpolitical. It cannot accept money from corporations and it must identify the donors that finance its ads in reports to the Federal Election Commission. Pinkston said the group has set aside money to carry out non-election related work to meet the legal requirements. It filed a report identifying Simmons as its sole donor for the ad last week.

In the Obama campaign's own response ad, an announcer states: "With all our problems, why is John McCain talking about the 60s, trying to link Barack Obama to radical Bill Ayers. McCain knows Obama denounced Ayers' crimes, committed when Obama was just 8 years old."

The McCain campaign cannot coordinate efforts with outside groups. But the campaign took advantage of being the target of the response ad.

"The fact that Barack Obama chose to launch his political career at the home of an unrepentant terrorist raises more questions about Senator Obama's judgment than any TV ad ever could," said McCain spokesman Brian Rogers.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Davidk

08-26-2008, 11:33 AM

I think BO is done.

Obama seeks to silence ad tying him to 60s radical

http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Aug25/0,4670,CVNObamaAyersAd,00.html

-

OK start the clock

WokMaster1

08-26-2008, 11:36 AM

Just listened to Ronn Owens on KGO talking to a lady from CUMAPAC (sp?). Basically they are Clinton supporters who are against Obama because their vote were not counted in FL & MI...... They claimed that Howard Dean refused to listen to the popular vote & basically shut down the voice of the people. So they are going to punish the Democrats by voting for McCain, a third party or staying home....just to send a message to the party leadership.

Hmmmmmm!:Ivan:

lazuris

08-26-2008, 11:41 AM

So they are going to punish the Democrats by voting for McCain, a third party or staying home....just to send a message to the party leadership.

Be careful that works both ways. We have the Ron Paul/Bob Barr crowd that will throw their votes away as well.

Piper

08-26-2008, 12:06 PM

How many watched Leno last night ? McCain was on and it definately sounded like the majority of the people in the audience were pro McCain.

The worst thing that could happen is for an anti-Obama front to divide by giving votes to Paul or Barr. As much as I think they have good ideas, I'm voting for McCain because I don't want Obama to win. If Paul or Barr were the more popular choices, I would vote for them to prevent Obama from winning. But that didn't happen, so we need to form a united front against Obama and vote for McCain.

dfletcher

08-26-2008, 12:24 PM

I realize that when picking a VP candidate the conventional wisdom is we are seeing the first "presidential" decision by a candidiate, but when did this become all important? The job of the VP candidiate is to get the Presidential candidiate elected. The job of the elected VP is to basically wait around for the President to die and break a tie vote in the Senate. If the President dies, don't screw up the country too much until we can have another election. Despite all the window dressing this hasn't much changed - perhaps when Quayle was nominated was a turning point?

Publius

08-26-2008, 12:32 PM

I realize that when picking a VP candidate the conventional wisdom is we are seeing the first "presidential" decision by a candidiate, but when did this become all important? The job of the VP candidiate is to get the Presidential candidiate elected. The job of the elected VP is to basically wait around for the President to die and break a tie vote in the Senate. If the President dies, don't screw up the country too much until we can have another election. Despite all the window dressing this hasn't much changed - perhaps when Quayle was nominated was a turning point?

I personally think the running mate is pretty darn important for McCain, because 1) McCain is pretty old, 2) he has a history of cancer, 3) whoever McCain picks now will be the obvious frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2012 if McCain either loses or wins and decides to serve only one term, or will be even more important as a vice president if McCain runs for election at age 75. McCain's choice of a running mate could also signal whether he is likely to let his maverick streak pull him in the direction of bipartisanship at the cost of screwing the GOP base once he's elected.

GenLee

08-26-2008, 12:49 PM

How many watched Leno last night ? McCain was on and it definately sounded like the majority of the people in the audience were pro McCain.

The worst thing that could happen is for an anti-Obama front to divide by giving votes to Paul or Barr. As much as I think they have good ideas, I'm voting for McCain because I don't want Obama to win. If Paul or Barr were the more popular choices, I would vote for them to prevent Obama from winning. But that didn't happen, so we need to form a united front against Obama and vote for McCain.

Piper, As a long time RP backer. As well as a disgusted republican when JM got the nod, I have to agree with you here. Instead of casting my write in/ third party vote, I am so disturbed with this Obamanation fascination, that I have decided to vote McCain just to insure a travesty like BO doen't EVER reach office.

trashman

08-26-2008, 1:14 PM

I think BO is done.
-

Wishful thinking..

Guys, "nationwide polls" are meaningless -- what matters is the Electoral count, STATE BY STATE. And Barack still has the right states in his win-column.

It's going to be a long uphill battle for McCain -- he's going to have to challenge hard in swing states like Pennsylvania, Flordia, Ohio...and if he picks Romney, who knows -- maybe California could be in play.

But nationwide polls don't really amount to much useful data, except as "what would the election outcome be if it was a nationwide referendum today?"

--Neill

firecaptdave

08-26-2008, 1:33 PM

I think BO is done.

Why and how?

From the article: Fox News and CNN have declined to air the anti-Obama ad.

Why would Fox-jazeera decline to run the ad unless they knew it was obviously baseless?

bwiese

08-26-2008, 1:39 PM

As much as I think they have good ideas, I'm voting for McCain because I don't want Obama to win. If Paul or Barr were the more popular choices, I would vote for them to prevent Obama from winning. But that didn't happen, so we need to form a united front against Obama and vote for McCain.

<<big hug>>

as a long time RP backer. As well as a disgusted republican when JM got the nod, I have to agree with you here. Instead of casting my write in/ third party vote, I am so disturbed with this Obamanation fascination, that I have decided to vote McCain just to insure a travesty like BO doen't EVER reach office.

<<big hug>>

Yep, it's the big picture.

mecam

08-26-2008, 1:47 PM

Why and how?

From the article: Fox News and CNN have declined to air the anti-Obama ad.

Why would Fox-jazeera decline to run the ad unless they knew it was obviously baseless?

CNN and Fox may not air the anti-obama ad, but they keep showing the story. I must have seen the Ayers and Obama news about 5 times already just today from both CNN and Fox and it's anti Obama.

saki302

08-27-2008, 1:26 AM

The story is FAR WORSE than the ad could have been.
Trying to block 1st amendment rights? And Biden's stand on 2nd amendment rights?

Any gun owner/collector/enthusiast who votes for Obama/Biden is a FOOL. Or does not wish to remain a gun owner. Period.
Wake up and smell their agenda. There's no denying it- just watch Biden's interview.