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Bob Rae: The real reason he won’t run for the Liberal leadership

Liberal interim leader looked down the road at the next 10 years and didn't like what he saw.

Last weekend, Rae spent hours discussing his future with his wife,
Arlene Perly Rae. Together, they outlined what could only be described
as a disastrous 10- to 15-year future. (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

It was a goal that dominated the last decade of his life, that drove the one-time NDP premier of Ontario to join the Liberal party, that drove him to seek the Liberal leadership in 2006 only to finish in third place, that drove him to seek the leadership again in 2008 only to see the opportunity yanked out from under him due to a party coup by Michael Ignatieff and his caucus supporters.

“The way in which I can serve my party best is by not running for the leadership,” he said. “It hasn’t been an easy decision. I think it’s best for the party and it’s a decision that I feel comfortable with.”

He insisted his age, health, family matters — or the coming Liberal leadership contest — had no influence on his surprise decision.

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Indeed, it had nothing to do with fearing he might lose the leadership race to Justin Trudeau or any other challenger.

So why is he giving up on his dream of being prime minister?

The real reason Rae is dropping out is that he took a long, hard look at how the next 10 years of his life would shape up — and didn’t like what he saw.

Last weekend, Rae spent hours discussing his future with his wife, Arlene Perly Rae. Together, they outlined what could only be described as a disastrous 10- to 15-year future.

First, although most Liberals assumed he could win the Liberal leadership race, Rae and his wife both knew it would not be easy or pleasant.

They reasoned, rightly so, that many Liberals would be furious with his entry into the race, claiming he broke a promise not to seek the full-time job that he made when he became interim leader in the spring of 2011.

At the same time, his critics within the party take a back seat to no one, including Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and his recent anti-Rae attack ads, when it comes to Rae-bashing.

Rae “could be the death knell of the party,” one Liberal insider said earlier this week. “He would kill us in Ontario, for obvious reasons. But more to the point is that we need a new face, one who would attract people back to the Liberals.”

If he ran, Rae’s life would become a nightmare for the next year, fighting his own party members for the right to lead them.

But the biggest factor in Rae’s decision-making was the growing realization that he wouldn’t become prime minister until at least 2023.

By that time, Rae would be 75 years old.

Last fall, after the death of NDP leader Jack Layton, the Liberals and Rae felt the Liberals could leapfrog over the New Democrats in the next election in 2015 and become the official opposition party. That would solidify Rae’s position as leader and open the door to the good possibility of defeating the Conservatives in the 2019 election.

On the weekend, his wife Arlene asked the tough questions. At 63 (he will be 64 on Aug. 2), did he need that much grief? Would his health be good enough at age 75 to run the party, let alone the country? After more than 30 years in politics, did he really have anything left to prove to himself?

As hard as it was for Rae to consider the questions truthfully, he gave his answers to his wife on the weekend.

On Monday, his supporters in Ottawa and at Queen’s Park were still gearing up to organize Rae’s leadership campaign. A top Liberal strategist at Queen’s Park told a key Rae aide over dinner that he was ready to get to work.

On Tuesday, a handful of Rae’s most trusted and loyal supporters were told of his decision.

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