Fantasy Freestyle

Don't Forget About Me

A couple weeks ago, we discussed some unexpected early-season fantasy studs and asked how they had fared since their brilliant starts to the season. An intrepid commenter suggested a follow-up article that highlighted some players who had accelerated their performance after spinning their wheels out of the gate. This is my humble acquiescence.

This article does not wish to suggest each one of these players has successfully shaken off his early-season blunders. Rather, the fact that some could legitimately revert and again become a fantasy wasteland makes this project a bit more interesting. The limited space makes it impossible to draw any definite conclusions, but I hope to bring up some interesting points to help give you direction as you consider your squad’s roster construction.

Miller has become the internet’s poster boy for unheralded improvement this season. He’s hitting .207/.277/.336 on the year and is barely a top-30 fantasy shortstop, but the 24-year-old has begun to claw his way back to respectability. The improvements over the past month have been significant across the board--more base hits, more power, and better discipline.

Before jumping squarely on the bandwagon, though, it’s important for us to recognize whence this improvement has germinated. It’s not a simple increase across the board, as the overall numbers would lead to believe. Miller has done nothing more than rediscover his stroke against righties. He has still been a complete basketcase against southpaws.

Odorizzi isn't a sure thing -- so it depends on your penchant for risk -- but I'd probably opt for JO over Porcello. Kuroda has improved as of late, but his upside is extremely limited. JO has a chance to be more valuable. As for Gausman, it depends if Baltimore actually keeps him in the bigs and lets him pitch every fifth day.

If you plug Castellanos' batted ball data into the xBABIP spreadsheet you can see that he is expected to have a .366 BABIP. The kid is a line drive machine which is why that number is so high. I agree with all of what you said there, but there's a chance his BABIP doesn't regress.

I'm a little surprised not to see Curtis Granderson here, though he snapped out of his early season doldrums well before May 30. I snagged him in a deal in early May for the fantasy equivalent of a bag of magic beans, and (to strain an already terrible metaphor) he has been a golden egg machine ever since.