In 2008, Hillary Clinton invoked RFK's assassination as an "anything can happen" reason for not dropping out.

Mainstream Democrats have had enough of Bernie Sanders' campaign and would like him to graciously, but expediently, fold up his democratic socialist tent and invite the more than 9 million people who voted for him to drop their #NeverHillary postures and do the right thing by Team Blue.

With only twelve primaries to go, trailing by nearly 300 in the pledged delegate count and having received more than 3 million fewer votes than the former secretary of state, why does Sanders insist he still has a path to the nomination?

Writing in Forbes, Euel Elliot suggests Sanders might be waiting for a "black swan" moment, which at this point is the only realistic path for him to secure the nomination:

That black swan, of course, goes by the name "FBI." While an indictment of Clinton in the email controversy is highly unlikely (since any indictment by a grand jury would require approval at the highest levels of the Justice Department and the president himself), anything that tarnishes her reputation, or that suggests recklessness in an official capacity, could be politically debilitating—if not disastrous. Under those circumstances, however unlikely any of them might be, why should Sanders not hang in and wait it out? If Clinton's poll numbers really did start to go south, the Convention just might turn to Sanders. If the shoe was on the other foot, does anyone doubt that Clinton certainly would hang in there?

In the waning days of the 2008 Democratic primary process, Clinton had arguably her most notorious moment of the campaign when she said she couldn't understand why people wanted her to concede to then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), and speculated that a black swan moment could bail out her losing campaign at any moment. To make her case, she regrettably referenced the June 1968 assassination of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy (D-N.Y.) as an example of how anything can happen before the convention.

Though she apologized for the remark, there can be no doubt that Clinton would absolutely "hang in there" until the end if she were trailing an opponent being investigated by the FBI.

For all the complaining from Clinton's camp about the "tone" of Sanders' critiques, Sanders has never made an issue out of the investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, even pledging at an early debate to not bring up her "damn emails."

But that doesn't mean that this mess of Clinton's own making isn't something the Sanders campaign should pretend isn't there. Earlier this week, FBI Director James Comey said the Bureau's investigation will take as long as it needs to, meaning Clinton will have it hanging over her head while running for president whether Sanders is in the race or not.

Sanders also has nothing to lose by staying in the race. He clearly doesn't care if he alienates centrist Democrats in Congress — he's been a thorn in their sides for two-and-a-half decades — and has been transparent in his deliberate attempt to blow up the status quo of the Democratic Party. By staying in the race, Sanders keeps his passionate supporters mobilized and maintains the leverage he needs to continue to push Clinton to the left, demand a prime-time speaking role at the Democratic National Convention in July, and force certain parts of his agenda into the party's official platform.

Rather than worrying that Clinton can't turn her attention to Donald Trump for six months rather than the four months she would have following the convention, Democrats should be grateful that Sanders intends to reward his supporters' loyalty by honoring his commitment to stay in the race "until the last vote is cast." If Sanders were to abandon his campaign now, it is entirely possible that the white, working-class, lunch-pail populists (a subset which Reason's Jesse Walker recently reported on) numbered among his supporters could end up voting for Trump.

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The great thing about the e-mail scandal is that it will give Team Red congresscritters something to focus on for the next eight years without getting distracted by actually trying to pass legislation and fix looming economic problems.

The great thing about the e-mail scandal is that it will give Team Red congresscritters something to focus on for the next eight years without getting distracted by actually trying to pass legislation and fix looming economic problems.

Repealing legislation is the only thing that will fix looming economic problems. More legislation of almost any conceivable variety is the last thing we need.

There are polls that show Hillary and Trump neck and neck. If she starts to slip (further) I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Obama throw her under the bus and let the justice dept go to town on her. Then the Obamas can be the biggest name in democrat land. Plus Bernie is his ideological successor.

Whatever sensitive information that may have been stolen from her server is just a small threat to national security. The major threat she poses is actually the lack of trust that the intelligence entities will have in her. How do you sit in a meeting with someone and take orders from them when you know they should be in jail for the way they handled information that your staff spent untold resources collecting?

No – but they do have egos and a strong sense of professional territorialism.

I think the big reveal from the emails that I have seen (granted, I haven’t dived in, or anything, I’ve just seen random ones here and there) is that she wasn’t really doing anything as Secretary of State.

All of the emails I have seen are of the “why wasn’t I invited to that meeting” or “I had no idea this was going on” type. That alone should be enough to disqualify her, but in the end I think she’ll be an empty suit filling her own coffers, taking care of her cronies, and having little real impact on anything because I don’t think she’s interested in the actual job and I doubt the higher levels of the bureaucracy will do much more than ignore her as they plug away at whatever they were going to do anyway.

in the end I think she’ll be an empty suit filling her own coffers, taking care of her cronies, and having little real impact on anything because I don’t think she’s interested in the actual job and I doubt the higher levels of the bureaucracy will do much more than ignore her as they plug away at whatever they were going to do anyway.

That remark immediately put me on alert. Perhaps Bernie is too gentlemanly to bring an active criminal investigation into political debates, but I think the “American people” should be INTENSELY interested in the emails.

Remember how the establishment pressured Hillary to quit in 2008 and just let Obama get nominated already? Remember how it reminded her female supporters of all the sexist bosses who wanted them to step aside for a (presumably less-qualified) man?

Of course this time it’s totally different because now it’s an entitled *man* refusing to step aside for a *woman.*

^This. I think Bernie is riding this out because he wants to see where the FBI investigation goes, but I think that Justice won’t do anything until Hillary has clinched the nomination. Then, when she withdraws, Uncle Joe can ride in on his white horse Amtrak and save the day.

But taking it from Bernie at that point would be tough, and would piss off the Bernie voters big time. Realistically, they would *rather* have Bernie, but just think he’d lose. But he’s been outpolling Trump, and they might decide to swing for the fences.

Has anyone asked Clinton if she plans to have a private email server as president? I mean, she claims it’s not illegal to have done so as Secretary of State, and there were no negative repercussions for it. The data wasn’t at risk. If it was convenient and had no downsides, why not as PoTUS?

Has Clinton taken a single question from a hostile reporter since 2014? Yeah, she had the one run-in with that coal miner, which proved to nobody’s surprise just how awful she is at dealing with her awful record.

Meh. I honestly do not think he thinks Clinton will be indicted over the emails; he’s been a politician for long enough such a thing will never happen. He wants his fingers in the Democratic platform and does not want to let down his enthusiastic supporters (which is admirable in a way).

Regardless, it is arguably better to keep the energy he has stoked amongst his followers going for as long as possible, especially if Sanders and Clinton can divert it to the Clinton general election campaign (which is an open question). Clinton’s campaign simply doesn’t have that energy.

His supporters who say they won’t vote for Clinton are largely blowing smoke. The vast majority will come around, just like how the NeverTrumpers are coming around to Trump and how most of the Clinton-or-Busters in 2008 came around to Obama.

it is arguably better to keep the energy he has stoked amongst his followers going for as long as possible, especially if Sanders and Clinton can divert it to the Clinton general election campaign (which is an open question). Clinton’s campaign simply doesn’t have that energy.

That’s a good point. If you reimagine the current field without Sanders, it’s hard to imagine much enthusiasm for Hillary. You would have all these ‘uge Trump rallies, and a generalized “meh” on the Team Blue side.

Even if (and when) Bernie loses, his campaign will have helped the Democrats generally speaking.

Everything that appeals about Trump plays perfectly against Hillary. Her tactics will backfire and only make him more popular.

Bernie, on the other hand, will be less vulnerable to “outsider vs. insider” attacks, and actually could probably claim more populist cred than Trump, in then end.

Thus, Bernie has a much better chance of neutralizing those things that make Trump popular, at which point Trump won’t really have anything else to run on beside the anti-immigrant thing. And I don’t think that’s going to get him there, because Sanders essentially agrees with him.

He may be. He also might be staying in because he knows he is advancing the issues he cares about, within the Democrat Party, and ultimately their platform. He is making Clinton go farther to the left.

Rand Paul could do the same for libertarian issues. Resign from GOP (it is after all the party of Trump now), enter the libertarian primary, and run what could be a very successful third party bid. He would just need to get all candidates denied 270 electoral college votes, and the election thrown to the House. He could win there. It just takes principle, and work.

Of course, he quit fighting and now stands by Trump. Sad. Between Bernie and Rand, one’s a fighter for the issues he believes in, the other cares only about his own political future. And he thinks that is on the party of Trump.

Drop the Senate bid and continue his bid for the Whote House. He was ready to do the same in the GOP primary. Like I said, he now opts to protect his own political future. So much for really fighting for your cause.

He would not have the support of enough donor cash if he switched to the Libertarian Party. There’d be a ton of grassroots excitement and support, but the big donors that own the country like having the Democrat and Republican parties in power.

And it’s not a question of the President signing a formal document, it’s a question of Loretta Lynn calling the President and saying, “boss, we think we will soon have the goods on Hillary,” with an implied “what shall we do?”

So, after this term is over Obama is basically a non-entity politically. There are no more offices to run for. Anything he does other than fundraising would be seen as a step down. What if Lynch wants be known for bringing down a Clinton? What if she thinks it would be good for her career to be seen as incorruptible? What if she’s playing the Game of Thrones?

Obama is too lazy for it. Yes, clerks write the opinions but justices still have to make a decision on which side they are. And most cases in front of SCOTUS are too boring for Obama to have an opinion on. Also, can you imagine Obama being an Associate Justice, a subordinate of Chief Justice Roberts?

Yes, I get that (that Obama isn’t signing the indictment). Yet I’m willing to bet that is in someway illegal on its own.

It’s an abomination that a special prosecutor wasn’t appointed. Even Nixon caved on that. We are a country that has grown far more accustomed to open corruption. Obvious conflicts of interest that would have doomed a candidate or created real backlash to a politician a generation ago are of no concern.

in 1881, Chester Arthur became president despite being one of the most infamously corrupt politicians of the age. Rutherford Hayes and John Sherman had had him removed from his post at the New York Customs house in the 1870s as a well-publicized example of cracking down on corruption.

This didn’t stop the very same crowd from nominating Arthur as Garfield’s VP because you weren’t going to get the NYC machine on board without one of their people in there.

And these were the people who were seen as the better alternative to the even more blatantly corrupt Grant administration.

I think we’re nearing another peak where people are getting sick of this shit.

I think Bernie would be the better of a variety of bad options, frankly.

I mean, Gay Jay is an embarrassing compromise = “But I really like weed, yo’s!? I’m not scary like McAfee and I’m cool with Gay Cake?” Trump is a non-starter, and Hillary is the Anti-Christ.

Who’s left? Bernie.

And the reason its not the worst thing is because he’s never going to even win the primary. Its the “consolation prize endorsement”, saying, “he did good things for democracy by showing…. uh, communists still have a role to play in politics to reminds us why capitalism actually keeps the lights on”. Life needs a little crazy sometimes to help people remember what “normal” is.

You know, in a way, the “gay cake” thing is a minor issue, but GJ’s response to that debate question is troubling in that it shows a lack of consistency at best, and at worst, a failure of understanding the precepts of libertarianism.

On Medved today, Johnson said that although someone required to bake a special cake might be put upon in doing so, he would rather the discomfort be put on the provider than on the customer who’d be refused otherwise.

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This is more of a general comment about analyses of the sort the pundit-heads are offering.

They tend to say things like “X can’t win against Y because the polls say This and That, unless there’s a black swan event.”

In other words, things will stay the same unless an unforeseen and unforeseeable catastrophic event occurs.

This is totally illogical. Think ahead. In Clinton vs. Trump debates, what might likely happen? What will Trump say? How will Clinton respond? What will Hillary say against Trump? It will be a negative campaign race to make the opponent look worse. Who is likely to succeed at that?

I don’t have answers, but my points are 1) the status quo will not hold and 2) we don’t need an unforeseeable event.

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90% of Bernie supporters will end up voting for Clinton. And anywhere between 70-80% of of dems will vote for Clinton even if she is indicted. I expect most republicans will also vote for Trump.

#NeverTrump is making a principled stance. #NeverHillary on the dem side is far leftists decrying Clinton’s wall street ties. They don’t REALLY care about her adventures in the middle east. They are not bothered by Obama’s far reaching executive orders and unilateral ACA decisions and spending – that’s just called rising above “obstructionism” and getting things done. They don’t care about limits on executive powers.

Which means if there was far left equivalent of Trump (saying nasty things about Jews instead of Mexicans) democratic support would be near 100%. Obama is more or less a more polished version of Trump. He was given given a carte blanche and ran away with it.

To whomever Clinton asks her pledged delegates to transfer their votes to if she drops out. Probably to another female politician, though not likely E. Warren, who has criticized her. Maybe to L. Lynn. Or to that guy from Baltimore.

(Maybe to one of the female SC justices??)

She needn’t be indicted to drop out. The Justice Dept. will show her team what they’ve got on her and give her an opportunity to make a (sub rosa) deal.

It’s the best reason for him to stay in. While he didn’t want to bring down the opprobrium that criticizing her email security investigation, as long as he is in the race and winning lots of votes, he will be the only choice the DemoE can turn to if she has to withdraw.

Corporate media keeps counting super-delegates as if they were committed. They do this to fool you into thinking the race is over. Why? Because they are corporate media and their corporate over-lords are terrified of a Sanders victory. Why? Because you would have someone in the White House looking out for YOU, and not just looking out for CORPORATIONS. They don’t want YOU to be looked after or cared about. They own the government, and they like it that way. They use your children to fight oil wars. They use you up in jobs that don’t pay, keep you terrified with lousy healthcare, keep your children drowning in college debt … and they take all your tax dollars (well over 50%) in useless military spending so they can keep other struggling people worldwide under their thumb, under the thumb of corporate power. YOU ARE BEING BAMBOOZLED.

Writing in Forbes, Euel Elliot suggests Sanders might be waiting for a “black swan” moment, which at this point is the only realistic path for him to secure the nomination:

People get paid to write this stuff? Where’s my check? Of course that’s a big driver for Bernie. And he just broke a crucial threshold, preventing Hillary from winning enough pledged delegates for the nomination. The Super Delegates rule.

What will be sweet, sweet Justice is to have the Super Delegates turn on Hillary when her numbers go south. If I could get a video of her apoplectic fury, it would be my screen saver until the end of time.

Whatever one thinks of John Boehner, he has to know something and he has repeatedly said to watch Biden. Should Hillary drop out before the convention, Biden will be ready and Hillary’s delegates will be turned over to him, if not by Hillary, then by the PTB.

Biden’s son died a year ago so his mourning year is done but he’ll still get a few sympathy votes. But Biden is an insider, – a sitting VP and only two of them have been elected. (Only three sitting Senators have been elected President because they, too, are insiders). When the Presidency changes hands, the one perceived as being an outsider – such as a governor – nearly always beats the one perceived to be an insider. That will be especially true this November.

Trump is an outsider so, like him or not, he is going to win – even against Hillary. Voters won’t care what Trump says because his enemies (the status quo) are the voters’ enemies.

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“For all the complaining from Clinton’s camp about the ‘tone’ of Sanders’ critiques …” If Hillary can’t take Sanders’ criticisms, then Trump will certainly take the same points and more, and drive them more forcefully. What will Clinton’s response be then? “Change your tone, Mr. Trump!”?

Bernie is representing what the vast majority of people in American want – increased access to higher education to access new opportunities through increased spending that won’t be controlled by corporate interests and will go to communities in need not simply those where the richest live. We need access to healthcare that especially for rural communities is becoming increasingly out of range – not simply in cost but in simple distance. We need to stop destroying our land through fracking and stop feeding the fossil fuel companies and strengthen our small farmers against Big Agro and invest in sustainable jobs through renewable energy that will be there for countless generations to come. We need to realize that “entitlements” – social security and food stamps – that go to people go directly back into our communities and small businesses dollar for dollar practically. The trillions in “entitlements” we give to the wealthy do not. They go into offshore corporate coffers and non-productive assets. We don’t need the cults of personality that are Trump and Clinton. We need a true public servant whose only concern is the people and not his or her own wealth or power.

Bernie is representing what the vast majority of people in American want – increased access to higher education to access new opportunities through increased spending that won’t be controlled by corporate interests and will go to communities in need not simply those where the richest live. We need access to healthcare that especially for rural communities is becoming increasingly out of range – not simply in cost but in simple distance. We need to stop destroying our land through fracking and stop feeding the fossil fuel companies and strengthen our small farmers against Big Agro and invest in sustainable jobs through renewable energy that will be there for countless generations to come. We need to realize that “entitlements” – social security and food stamps – that go to people go directly back into our communities and small businesses dollar for dollar practically. The trillions in “entitlements” we give to the wealthy do not. They go into offshore corporate coffers and non-productive assets. We don’t need the cults of personality that are Trump and Clinton. We need a true public servant whose only concern is the people and not his or her own wealth or power.

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But you wouldn’t have 100,000 engineers. You would still have 1,000 engineers because engineering is hard and one-third of the people who get into engineering schools change majors because it’s hard. The weed-out classes would just become more epic, that’s all.

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