Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Trump, Palin would lose even to Kucinich

If you want to get an idea of how bad Donald Trump's political standing was by the end of his abortive run for President consider this- a national poll we conducted last week found that he would trail Dennis Kucinich 40-36 in a hypothetical contest.

On that poll we found that there were more Republicans (15%) willing to vote for Kucinich than there were Democrats (14%) willing to vote for Trump. And Kucinich took independents by a 40-38 margin as well.

Trump was already unpopular when he started testing the Presidential waters. In February we found that his favorability was a -29 spread at 27/56. But he managed to make himself more unpopular over the course of the last three months and in our final national poll including him he was at a -41 spread at 24/65. He did improve his popularity with Republicans over the course of that time from -22 (31/53) to -8 (39/47). But with Democrats he cratered from -40 (21/61) to -70 (11/81) and he had a dramatic decline with independents as well from -22 (30/52) to -40 (26/66).

For all of that Trump is not the weakest Republican in the two hypothetical match ups we tested with Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich's lead over Sarah Palin if they were to face off would be 43-36. In that scenario Kucinich gets 16% of Republicans to Palin's 12% of Democrats and leads her by 10 points with independents at 42-32.

Obviously none of these match ups will ever happen but we were trying to get a gauge of just how weak these two Republican contenders would be and I think the fact that voters would take Dennis Kucinich over either of them gives us our answer.

Whenever you see a poll taken on a proposition with virtually no chance of occurring in the real world--i.e., "In-a-head-to-head matchup for the presidency, who would you vote for: Lady Gaga or Michelle Bachman--and the former trounces the latter you can be pretty sure of two things: 1) The poll would have never seen the light of day if the results were reversed); and 2) when the framing of the question "Who would you vote for next year?" differs from almost every poll that asks if the election were held today... ." you can surmise its asked knowing that, in reality, people really don't know how they will feel in the future even when they know the circumstances. For instance, in January of 2010, George Bush's approval rating was at 35%. Recently in a poll which polled 17% more democrats than republicans he had broken through 50%. Does anyone really believe, if the question were asked, "Fifteen months from now are you likely to change your opinion of the job George Bush did to the point that you will rate him higher than Obama?" that 15% would have answered "yes"?

This is a B.S. poll, just another attempt to cast republican candidates in an anemic light while the left struggles to find a way to jack up the president's very precarious approval rating (the "Usama bump" in two weeks rather than its anticipated nine by POLLSTERS) of 46% with no tangible signs to Americans at gas pumps and on checkout lanes (or who are watching the value of their homes plummet).

Keep these polls coming. The left seems emboldened and inspired by what is little more than statistical porn.

"This is a B.S. poll, just another attempt to cast republican candidates in an anemic light while the left struggles to find a way to jack up the president's very precarious approval rating"

Glad to see other people recognize these guys for what they are: Shills for the likes of DailyKOS, SEIU and the Dem party. They used to publish some credible polls, but now their entire game is proganda pushing and messaging.

Notice how Dems are always ahead in their polls and Reps like Palin always lose to the likes of Charley Sheen, Lady Gaga, and Caligula. What a joke these guys at PPP have become.

Too bad my dream of Palin as the GOP nominee now looks like it will not materialize.

The odds of Palin running seem extremely thin now... and even if she did I don't think she'd have much chance of winning the nomination at this point.

If it can't be Palin I hope it ends up being one of the other loons... someone boring like Pawlenty or Romney wouldn't be too much fun (and if the economy is doing poorly enough they may even win ~ which would be a real bummer.)