MacBook release builds confidence in Apple's quarter

The arrival of Apple's new MacBook this month came as a surprise to analysts for American Technology Research, who say the immediate availability of the notebooks is sure to strengthen the company's current fiscal quarter.

"MacBook is shipping 1-2 months ahead of our checks (we had anticipated the June/July timeframe)," analyst Shaw Wu told clients in a research note issued on Thursday. "We thus have a higher degree of confidence that Apple is on track to hit the upper-end, if not exceed, its guidance of $4.2 to 4.4 billion in revenue and 39 to 42 cents in earnings-per-share."

Wu sees the timing of the MacBook launch as important because it comes well ahead of Apple's critical back-to-school buying season, which begins around the July timeframe. He believes the notebooks are on their way to becoming the company's second highest volume Mac computer behind the iMac Core Duo, possibly making a run for the No. 1 spot.

"Pricing and specifications appear very competitive and a vast improvement from [the] iBook, its predecessor," the analyst wrote."We believe the entry-level system from $1099 is a particularly good deal that includes a 1.83GHz dual-core Intel processor, 13-inch widescreen LCD, 512MB of memory, 60GB HDD, iSight video camera, Front Row with Apple remote, GigE, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Mac OS X Tiger, the iLife suite and the option to run Windows XP through Boot Camp."

Wu says the new MacBook "screams iPod companion and portable digital media center." While it's clear that Apple is targeting students and the education markets with the notebooks, they also make "a lot of sense for mainstream consumer, particularly switchers," he said.

Unlike Apple's professional line of MacBook Pro notebooks, Wu said the availability of the new MacBook appears fairly good in its first week on the market. "Our checks indicate strong orders and pent-up demand as many customers have been waiting for this low-cost Intel mobile Mac," he wrote. "In fact, on Amazon.com, the top three selling PCs are MacBooks, beating out Toshiba, HP, Sony and Acer."

Still, the analyst has his share of concerns. He believes the the $1499 high-end version with a black matte finish may be a bit overpriced. "Apple appears to be confident that some customers will pay the $200 premium for the black color," he wrote.

Another concern is that the MacBook's feature set and attractive price points could deter users from purchasing the company's higher-priced MacBook Pro offerings. "The MacBook is so powerful that we fear it could cannibalize sales of its high-end MacBook Pro," Wu told clients. "The only difference between the models are the screen size (15-inch and 17-inch vs. 13-inch) and graphics capability (ATI vs. embedded Intel graphics)."

Overall, Wu remains bullish on Apple. He believes the risk-reward on the company's shares remains attractive, trading at 25 times his 2007 calendar year earnings-per-share estimates of $2.59. "We remain firm believers that the move to digital entertainment is a multi-year trend and that Apple is well-positioned to capitalize with its unique and defendable iPod + iTunes and Macintosh franchise," he wrote.

American Technology Research maintains its Buy rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $101.

We remain firm believers that the move to digital entertainment is a multi-year trend and that Apple is well-positioned to capitalize with its unique and defendable iPod + iTunes and Macintosh franchise.

I love how analysts can make nothing sound like something... just by using a certain vocabulary and sentence structure

The arrival of Apple's new MacBook this month came as a surprise to analysts for American Technology Research, who say the immediate availability of the notebooks is sure to strengthen the company's current fiscal quarter.

"The MacBook is so powerful that we fear it could cannibalize sales of its high-end MacBook Pro," Wu told clients. "The only difference between the models are the screen size (15-inch and 17-inch vs. 13-inch) and graphics capability (ATI vs. embedded Intel graphics)."

WRONG ... there is no ExpressCard Slot for the MacBook, it only exists in the MacBook Pro. That's a major difference between the systems.

On the timing of the release, I think the MacBook release was Strategic and Just In Time as it will help Apple's current quarter numbers and Mac unit sales.

Doesnt enen have a proper video card and video memory is shared with system memory!? Phil Schiller said its not suitable for games like Doom3. What students dont want to play the odd game or two?

If it had dedicated graphics instead of that Intel junk it might cannibalise MBP sales but this is where Apple crippled them. I'm surprised there isnt a bigger debate about this issue.

I definitely wont be in a hurry to buy till I read some reviews.

First, the Macbook with integrated graphics beats the iBook with graphics card hands down (per Macworld benchmark). And over a million iBooks were sold. Maybe those students didn't want to play the odd game or two?

The Macbook beats the latest Powerbook in everything except possibly games where it lags but not by that much (per Macworld Unreal Tournament benchmark). And only fools buy a Celeron or cheapie laptop to play games. And why PC people buy premium-priced Alienware computers to play games.

First, the Macbook with integrated graphics beats the iBook with graphics card hands down (per Macworld benchmark). And over a million iBooks were sold. Maybe those students didn't want to play the odd game or two?

To be exact, the benchmarks showed that the iBook beat the Macbook at running ... Photoshop. But there's little doubt that when Photoshop becomes Universal, that the Macbook will clobber the iBook at that too.

Who is this analyst and from what rock did he crawl under from? Was it really a surprise to him or is it a deformed interp.

Apple hinted strongly, during the conference call, that it would be ready for the July quarter. While they wouldn't say, they brushed aside any idea that it would be available sooner. Analysts can only go by what they are told. If Apple had said that they were trying to get it out as soon as possible, it would be different, but they didn't. Wolf, and others, pushed them on that, but they stuck to the ready by July quarter, and can't...competitive reasons.

To be exact, the benchmarks showed that the iBook beat the Macbook at running ... Photoshop. But there's little doubt that when Photoshop becomes Universal, that the Macbook will clobber the iBook at that too.

When Merom comes out, if Apple moves to that on the MB's, as they likely will on the MBP's, that will make a big difference as well.

What students only game on a computer and won't buy a next gen console or don't own a current gen console?

I mean if they "play an odd game or two" isn't is way more likely it'll be a console?

Not all games are availble on the consoles. WoW, and many other MMO's aren't availble on the consoles. I also disagree with the benchmarks quoted concearning graphics. Dedicated cards are better then intergrated even when they are a bit behind.

First, the Macbook with integrated graphics beats the iBook with graphics card hands down (per Macworld benchmark). And over a million iBooks were sold. Maybe those students didn't want to play the odd game or two?

The Macbook beats the latest Powerbook in everything except possibly games where it lags but not by that much (per Macworld Unreal Tournament benchmark). And only fools buy a Celeron or cheapie laptop to play games. And why PC people buy premium-priced Alienware computers to play games.

And that so simply explains why there is little debate about it.

Here's a vid to prove how the video lacks behind and stutters while loading a simple iMovie theme:

WRONG ... there is no ExpressCard Slot for the MacBook, it only exists in the MacBook Pro. That's a major difference between the systems.

That's barely usable at the moment. Apart jpennington's report of using the SIIG flash reader adapter, I haven't heard of anyone having an ExpressCard and putting it to productive use. Even then, the report is that the MBP won't sleep properly with the reader installed.

The MacBooks don't have a backlit keyboard either. That was one of the deciding factors for me, I assumed the MacBook would not get that feature.

The user also performs an Xbench test and shows that the video card sux.

Still the machine itself is pretty sweet.

Just a pity about the graphics card (if it can even be called that).

If you read what he said in his video, he said that the graphics chip was fine for everything except heavy gaming, and he, correctly, attributed the stuttering to the lack of RAM, which can be a problem. 1 GB certainly does help.

If you read what he said in his video, he said that the graphics chip was fine for everything except heavy gaming, and he, correctly, attributed the stuttering to the lack of RAM, which can be a problem. 1 GB certainly does help.

So does everyone then agree that the video capability of this new MacBook is far superior to that of the previous iBook with its dedicated video card which it replaces?

I was led to believe that intel shared graphics would suck under pressure especially using Quartz Extreme and CoreImage.