Smyth’s strong play is winning over Oilers fans again…

Today, I wonder if a similar percentage wouldn’t vote to offer Smyth a new contract for next season, at least if the Old Man of the Oilers can keep up the level of his performance for the rest of the 2013-14 season.

So far this year, Smyth, in his 37th year on earth, 18th in the National Hockey League and 14th as an Edmonton Oiler, has been one of the team’s top performing wingers.

Perhaps that’s not saying much on a team where the wingers have been plagued by defensive miscues and poor two-way performance. Nonetheless, only three or four wingers on the team, namely Jordan Eberle, David Perron, Taylor Hall and Ales Hemsky, have made larger contributions to the team.

Smyth has certainly bounced back from a weak start and a weak season in 2012-13, where he never really got untracked under former head coach Ralph Krueger, got scratched for a game, got moved to fourth line to play centre, and put up a miserable individual scoring chances plus-minus number for a winger, only +0.9 per game, an atrocious showing in the NHL that would normally see a player looking for a new league to play in. Smyth was lucky he had another year on his contract.

In 545 even strength minutes last year, Smyth contributed to just 2.1 scoring chances per 15. For comparison, a decent even strength attacking winger, like Magnus Paajarvi or Nail Yakupov last year, will put up at least 2.5 per 15.

A good attacker, like Ales Hemsky last year, will chip in on more than 3.0 per 15.

An outstanding one, like Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall last season, will chip in on more than 4.0 per 15.

Smyth was so ineffectual on the attack last year, he was down in Ben Eager and Lennart Petrell country, and neither of those two players is still in the NHL.

This year, however, Smyth has cranked up his game. He’s back to attacking with more vigour and determination. He’s chipping in on 3.3 scoring chances per game, the most of any Oilers winger not named Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall. Eberle is chipping in on 4.0 per 15 and Hall, after a slow start, is at 3.5 per 15.

Smyth is doing it the Smyth way, with constant attempts to jam the puck in on wrap-around plays, deft passes and the occasional hard drive to the net.

Smyth is the greasiest of all Oilers attackers, as seen by the number of hard plays at the net on scoring chances that he makes. He’s the team leader in this category. Indeed, about half of the contributions he makes on scoring chances are greasy contributions, jams, screens, deflections or hard charges on the opposition net (see chart below).

On defence, he’s had rough patches this year, but overall has played smart positional defence, keeping himself between his check and the Oilers net.

He’s doing just about everything you’d want from a 37-year-old veteran on this Oilers team.

Has he earned a new contract?

He’s getting there. In 2011-12, he had a few strong months, then was weaker the rest of the year, and that weak play continued into 2012-13. Smyth needs to keep up this higher level of play for a longer period of time to earn a new deal for next season, but there’s a chance he will do so.

I see that Taylor Hall’s Corsi% or plus-minus is just a bit better than Ben Eager’s number, and worse than Sam Gagner and Nail Yakupov’s Corsi%. That’s certainly not how I’ve seen Hall this year. He’s not been great but he’s not been nearly that weak.

Of course, a player’s Corsi% reflects how the team has done when a player is on the ice, not necessarily how a player has done individually, and that’s what we’re seeing with Hall here, a Corsi% that is far more about his teammates than about him. That is why it’s best not to put much weight on Corsi% as a measure of an individual player. Corsi% doesn’t zero in on individual performance, it measures team performance, and is miscast as an individual stat.

Hall has played much better individually than his Corsi shots-at-net % reflects, though not as well as he played last year. According to individual scoring chances plus-minus, Hall has been outperformed by Jordan Eberle at even strength on the wing this year, and is a tad behind Ryan Smyth, but ahead of all the other wingers.

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