Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.

Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.

I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.

I'll gladly take a descent into autumn for a while; it's been a long time since we had a good, colorful, crisp fall season in East TN. I'm always a big fan when we do get one; the cooler air after a hot summer coupled with college football and all the great cooking that starts happening that time of year is almost magic.

I would take a carbon copy of laster winter but a little bit cooler. I was lucky enough to make it back to Nashville for the 3" we had on March 11th. It was a nice welcoming home. Its impossibe to tell if our localized area will cash out. As I always love snow IMBY , its TN and we must be mobile.

I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

o, just wait... this will happen when were about 2 third of winter done...no snow and some torchy temps have occured Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 09:48:45 AMjust to sort of edit my last post bit... curt to be honest... should be in all honest pretty safe from someone blaming you for a bad winter... cause you didnt label it as a epic winter, as we all know isnt going to happen again perhaps in our lifetime... someone had to start the topic... good time as any bud...

This far out, I don't have much to go on except looking at our over all pattern year to date and extrapolation combined with past experience with midsouth weather and sea surface temp patterns.

That being said, right now my feeling is a cold mid to late fall, warm Dec and part of January, then a cold end to the winter. It's hopeless to predict snow and winter weather, but I bet we see a minor shot of it late in the fall, and February is always the best time here for snow so it being cold then is ideal.

I will reply in a few months with something more scientific, but for the sake of discussion this is my best guess currently.

Ocean temperatures at the surface of the tropical Pacific are warm enough to meet the ocean threshold for El Niņo, but the atmosphere still hasn't reacted. According to the latest forecast, ENSO-neutral remains the most likely (50 to ~55% chance) outcome through Northern Hemisphere fall 2017

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From NOAA.

It looks like it will be a Neutral although a Weak El-Nino cannot be completely ruled out. The PDO looks to be on the + side and the PNA, for the most part, has been + recently. If those stay on the + side then I think we have at least a decent shot for a respectable winter.

One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall. The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow.