德勤-2018年科技、媒体和电信预测报告（英文）-2018.1-80页

Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions 2018 www.deloitte.com/predictionsContents Foreword 01 Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality 03 The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation 07 Smartphones are useful, but they can be distracting 17 Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips 23 Machine learning: things are getting intense 28 Live thrives in an online world 32 Digital media: the subscription prescription 37 Is there an #adlergic epidemic? Ad blocking across media 42 The kids are alright: no tipping point in TV viewing trends for 18-24 year olds 49 Mobile-only: wireless home internet is bigger than you think 56 Fasten your seatbelts: in-flight connectivity takes off 63 Endnotes 66Foreword We live in a time of relentless change yet stubborn continuity. The technology, media and telecommunications sectors remain as fascinating as ever in 2018. Many milestones will be reached this year. Progress will be exponential in some fields. But in other areas the way in which we live and work may shift imperceptibly. Technology’s progress can seem daunting at times: reports of technological advances’ negative impacts abound, disseminated at the speed of light by ever faster networks. Machines are perceived by some as threats to the human race: they are stronger, faster, more responsive and even better at playing board games. Are our jobs and very way of life at stake or is this the start of one of the greatest enhancements to the human experience? Machine learning (ML), a core element of artificial intelligence, will progress at a phenomenal pace this year. But this will be from a low base. As impressive as it is today, in 50 years’ time the ML abilities of 2018 will be considered baby steps in the history of this technology. Over the coming year, ML will become more commonly deployed in enterprises, but will remain far from ubiquitous. Almost every high-end smartphone will have a machine learning chip, but those chips will not yet be fully utilized. Nearly a million ML chips will be installed in data centers, but this quantity will seem small within a decade. ML is being deployed to make existing technology work better and augment services for customers, but in 2018 almost none of it is replacing human labor. Indeed, technology remains a human creation with (for better and worse) human traits – the point at which it attains autonomy from human control is far away. Sentient machines still only exist within science fiction, at present. Technology is leaping forward, but humans hold the reins. It is being applied for the betterment of people, not their belittling. Technology empowers people to consume content where, when and with (or without) whom they want. Despite this technology-given capability, people will choose to spend over half a trillion dollars in 2018 on consuming content live, often with other people and not on-demand. People are using digital to augment their live experience – be this in buying and distributing tickets via their smartphones, or streaming events on ever faster mobile networks. And the pace and reach of those networks is likely to get steadily faster. The majority of voice calls have already moved to mobile networks. Now it is the turn of home broadband, thanks to the ever falling cost per gigabyte of data carried. Communicating at 35,000 feet has historically been a niche service, constrained by bandwidth and cost, often funded by expense accounts. But a rise in the supply of connectivity is likely to democratize in-flight connectivity, spurring a surge of selfies from 35,000 feet. Most successful technologies – from the radio to the eReader, from the steam engine to the fitness band – undergo a period of rapid progression before reaching an inexorable plateau. In 2017, the smartphone had its tenth birthday. On this occasion many smartphones looked as they did on their prior anniversary. This has raised the question as to whether the smartphone’s zenith had already been reached. 01 Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions | 2018Superficially the smartphone is unlikely to change markedly in 2018, or indeed through 2023. But on the inside, it is likely going to continue to undergo a massive sequence of upgrades that will steadily widen the device’s capability, in 2018 and for years to come. Companies that understand best how to harness these invisible innovations are likely to profit most from forthcoming innovations – for example, via ever more compelling augmented reality on smartphones. The smartphone is likely to be used by more people, with increasing frequency, and for a wider scope of activities, spanning the practical, informative and entertaining. This trend may well raise the question of whether smartphone usage is excessive: the reality is that the smartphone, like any technology, is a tool whose appropriate usage will be determined by society and individuals. It has always been our pleasure to work with the world’s technology, media and telecommunications companies. We hope you find this year’s edition of Predictions to be a stimulating and informative read. We look forward to the discussion. Paul Sallomi Global Technology, Media older smartphones lack the hardware required to support accurate AR frameworks. 9 But the hardware improvements are only part of the story; algorithms are also critical to creating and displaying compelling AR content. Better algorithms assist in multiple ways. One of the most important developments is greater precision when identifying edges of surfaces. Identifying surfaces – of a table, floor, pavement or other flat surface where an object might rest – helps position the digital image automatically and means that the object does not appear (unconvincingly) to be hovering in midair. Historically, positioning AR content was effected by placing printed trackers resembling large bar codes on the floor; this required the user to have access to a printer, reducing the addressable market. Now AR delivers the same sort of experience without requiring any physical printed image-based trackers, vastly increasing the base of people willing to try out AR. Superior algorithms also enable shadows in scenes lit by the sun or artificial light, again making the illusion look more real. Animated AR characters can “react” to the changes in environment (such as a light being switched off), further creating the illusion that the digital objects are real. In recent years, with custom AR technologies, feature tracking has been applied within face-tracking and face-filter apps, allowing users to augment faces, both comically and also practically (for example, showing how a face would look with a particular hue of lipstick applied). In 2018, software enhancements also will offer improved feature detection, going beyond the face and enabling detection of and interaction with a wider range of objects, from bicycles to buildings. These enhancements should enable AR to be used in a wider range of applications, such as self-service technical support. For example, when assembling flat-pack furniture, AR could be used to stick a virtual arrow next to the part of a shelf where a bolt needs to be inserted. Smartphones that include depth sensors – of which over 100 million may be in the market by the end of 2018 – will enable devices to work with depth information, providing more accurate augmentation and scanning of 3-D objects using the front-facing camera. Infrared (IR) sensors are also needed for augmented reality to work in low-light environments. This sort of depth information will further enhance augmented reality capabilities once IR sensors are incorporated on both sides of smartphones. As stated earlier, AR is not new to 2018; what differs is quality, especially with regard to photorealism. Prior to 2018, AR was more rudimentary, as that was all the technology permitted. There have also been practical applications, such as positioning items of furniture in a room to see how they might look in a prospective customer’s home, but the bulk of regular usage of AR has been for selfies with face filters. As of 2018, AR should enable users to appear to be singing along with their favorite singer, interacting with a tiger, juggling balls with a star footballer, or indeed being in the same space as any other person, animal or object they may want to incorporate. This is behavior akin to having one’s photo taken with a waxwork model or cardboard cutout of a celebrity, but the AR artifact should look far more convincing – and will also likely move. In most cases, AR will be used to create short videos designed for sharing. The more convincing the simulation, the more fervent is likely to be the reaction from those receiving the content and thus the more rewarding the activity. The use of AR in photography will probably be the most commonplace application of AR video, simply because the camera app is one of the most-used smartphone features. There will be other applications, both useful and frivolous, that feature AR, but they are unlikely to be used as frequently. 04 Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions | 2018One major genre is likely to be games, which is the largest category of apps available. Games developers are likely to use AR as a differentiator that could encourage new downloads. AR is also likely to be integrated into existing popular game apps and distributed when the app is updated on a user’s device. Over the course of 2018, we expect a growing number of games to incorporate an AR element, but we expect few AR-only games. One reason for this is that the most advanced AR platforms work only where lighting is good and the device can readily recognize a surface on which to place content. AR objects can be hard to place in rooms with variable lighting or where there are no obvious surfaces; carpet, too, is difficult. AR games cannot be played in the dark and may not work well for users in planes, trains or automobiles, again due to the lack of a surface onto which they can project. This is problematic, as a large part of mobile games’ appeal is the ability to play anytime and anywhere. Furthermore, as AR requires the camera to be operational, battery usage is high. Pokémon Go was the first mainstream smartphone game to feature AR, but it also offered the option to turn the camera off to save battery life. Many regular players rapidly turned off AR when capturing Pokémon, to conserve battery and extend playing time. A further constraint on the use of AR in games is user fatigue, particularly if AR requires the user to hold the device at an uncomfortable angle. Smartphones are often held nearly horizontal; while one is using a camera, the device often is nearly vertical, and maintaining this position may tire out users. This variation in angle may seem trivial, but mainstream users tend to opt for comfort and abandon games that cause physical fatigue. Social networks are likely to compete on the strength of their AR functionality, and users’ feeds are likely to receive increasing numbers of short videos that incorporate AR animations. Some celebrities may start selling packs of 3-D animated content that can be integrated into their fans’ AR videos, similar to the emergence of celebrity-specific emojis and mobile games. Social networks are likely to offer increasingly sophisticated AR effects and bespoke images 10 from their apps. 11 During 2018, we also expect an abundance of home decoration apps to launch (and relaunch, taking advantage of better technology), enabling prospective customers to visualize how a piece of furniture would look in their homes. This type of application has been developing for many years. However, in most instances, such AR apps are likely to complement rather than replace a visit to the showroom. These apps enable someone to see – with varying degrees of accuracy– how a sofa with a certain fabric might look in their living room, and even to walk around it. In 2018, these apps should have more accurate scaling, and a visual of the couch in different lighting conditions may be possible. But such an app is unable to indicate how firm or springy the couch is or the quality of its construction, and for that reason, an app is likely to remain just one of many inputs in the final purchase decision. Also in the home, AR has been suggested as a replacement for the tape measure. The latest AR technology enables the most accurate measurement ever – but it still retains a margin of error of a few percentage points, which would not be tolerable in many cases. Inaccurate measurement of a doorframe by even a few millimeters could mean the couch that the AR app had helped a user visualize would not fit through a doorway. This prediction has focused predominantly on AR usage via smartphone, as this is how we expect most of AR’s value to be generated in 2018. Every premium smartphone sold in 2018 should be capable of video AR at no additional cost to the consumer, whereas dedicated AR headsets may cost hundreds or even thousands of dollars, and it might be two to three years before they’re available in the consumer market at accessible pricing. Further, based on limited uptake of dedicated virtual reality headsets, it is less clear that mainstream consumers will want to wear dedicated AR headsets. AR on a smartphone will not be as impressive as AR with a head-mounted display, but it will certainly be more accessible. 05 Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions | 2018The bottom line 2018 is likely to be a year of progress and experimentation for AR. The quantity of premium AR devices will swell. There will be tens of thousands of AR apps. The photo app on smartphones may soon start offering an array of people or objects that can be inserted into a shot. App stores specific to AR content may be launched, similar to the instant messaging (IM) stores now available. But it won’t be plain sailing. Inevitably, mistakes will be made. There may be disdain in some quarters for the apparent triviality of AR apps, but this fails to take into account the history of content created for consumers over the past few decades. And 2018 is far from the endpoint for AR; many further years of evolution are likely to enchant users and enhance their creations. Over the medium term, AR will merge into camera-based apps; we will struggle to recall a time when AR was a mere novelty. And at some point in the future, it may become increasingly hard to tell reality from AR-enabled fiction. This year, one of the tasks for developers will be to determine when AR adds to an experience and when it is superfluous. For example, with navigation apps, AR could be used to superimpose an arrow on a live image of a street, guiding the user more precisely than would be possible with a 2-D map. Using AR throughout the journey, however, might be superfluous, and this functionality should arguably be deployed only in the