Political Memo; Finally, Relief in Rival Camps

By ROBIN TONER,

Published: December 21, 1991

WASHINGTON, Dec. 20—
Now the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination can begin anew.

No more Mario scenarios. No more excuses for Democratic contributors or party organizers who wanted to hold back their money or support until they saw what the Governor of New York would do. No more opinion polls that showed most of the announced candidates clustered in the single digits, while Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, so much better known, loomed, tantalizing Democrats with his potential, his stature, his oratorical heft.

The Governor denied, angrily and repeatedly, that his two months of public indecision had slowed or even frozen the race, but it clearly had an effect. Today there was simple relief in the rival camps that Mr. Cuomo had finally said something definitive. Removing Some Doubts

"The eclipse is over, to the extent there was one," said Harrison Hickman, the poll taker for Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska.

Ronald H. Brown, the Democratic national chairman, who had pushed for a Cuomo decision week after week, said tonight, "Now we can get down to the selection process in earnest, without any doubts about what the final field will be."

Mr. Cuomo's decision also helps answer a question that has haunted the White House, where the people around President Bush were divided over whether the Governor would make a ripe, liberal, Northeastern target, or a tough and aggressive opponent with the stature of a potential President.

Nobody knew what kind of Presidential candidate Governor Cuomo would make. His allies predicted oratorical brilliance, his critics an endless argument because of his legendary thin skin. But it was clear that he would enter the race as the front-runner, a strong favorite with many of the party's traditional constituent groups, from labor to liberals.

Democrats in rival camps today rejoiced over his departure. But while they were spared a formidable challenge, they also lost an opportunity. Nothing confers stature in politics like beating a front-runner. And as Mr. Kerrey often said, if he could not beat Governor Cuomo, he could not beat Mr. Bush.

Mr. Cuomo, of course, lost the clearest opportunity, perhaps forever. He tried to shrug off the most poignant question for him today: whether his decision meant that he had lost his moment in history and would never again have such a ripe opportunity to capture the White House. Many Democrats over the past few weeks have argued that a no this time could be a final no.

For all the allure of Mr. Cuomo's talent, there was a growing discontent in the party with what many saw as his self-absorption, his refusal to see that his long bout with indecision carried a price for Democrats at large.

This fall, with Mr. Bush plummeting in the polls, dropping 16 percentage points from October to November, the party had sensed an opportunity to take back the White House after 11 years. Democratic strategists felt a new urgency to get their race under way, to produce a nominee, to turn the voters' attention to their little-known field of candidates.

Instead, the political scene was stolen by Mario Cuomo and what many wearily described as his Hamlet-on-the-Hudson routine. Last weekend, at the Florida State Democratic convention, there were boos when Governor Cuomo's name was mentioned.

"For the past three months Mario Cuomo has become known for three things," said George Bruno, the former Democratic chairman in New Hampshire who supports Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas. "First, that he gave a great speech in San Franciso in 1984. Second, that he has a tough time making up his mind. And third, that he has serious budget problems in New York.

"That's sort of the way he's left things. If he is going to become a serious force on the national scene at a later date, it will be necssary for him to undergo some sort of metamorphosis."

Mr. Cuomo's withdrawal has some clear, immediate effects on his rivals. The consensus of many political professionals was that Mr. Cuomo would probably have most hurt Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa. Mr. Harkin preaches a return to old-time Democratic religion, like huge public works programs, and had reached for much of the same support that Mr. Cuomo would have sought, including organized labor.

"I suspect they are dancing in the Harkin camp," said one senior Democratic official.

His departure probably helps Mr. Kerrey as well, since the Senator from Nebraska, who is counting on New Hampshire to ignite his candidacy, was seeking money and support from many of the same wells that Mr. Cuomo would have tapped. Changing the Terrain

The Cuomo announcement changes the terrain for Mr. Clinton, whose advisers had been positioning the Arkansas Governor as the natural Cuomo alternative, hoping to bill the race as a struggle between a change-oriented Mr. Clinton and a traditional Mr. Cuomo.

The decision Mr. Cuomo announced today simply settles the ground for all the candidates, from former Senator Paul E. Tsongas of Massachusetts to Gov. L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia and former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. of California.

If modern history is any guide, Mr. Cuomo's decision today should probably have been expected. Recent years have not been kind to New Yorkers in Presidential politics.

For generations the state had more than its share of Presidential players; only twice from 1868 to 1948 was there no New Yorker on the national ticket for President or Vice President, and Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected President four times. But two Republican Governors of New York, Thomas E. Dewey and Nelson Rockefeller, have gone down to defeat, and that tradition has fallen on hard times.

Mr. Cuomo, no doubt, considered himself heir to the Roosevelt tradition. Now his fellow Democrats may never know.

Photo: New York State office workers gathering in an adjoining room in Albany yesterday to listen as Gov. Mario M. Cuomo announced at a news conference that he would not be a Presidential candidate. (David Jennings for The New York Times)