Wednesday, October 29, 2014

"... 50 Arab fighters from the Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) arrived in the embattled town on Wednesday in a move aimed at halting ISIL's advance across northern Syria.... the FSA fighters were only equipped with light arms and machineguns..."

"... The problem that Obama has, which has crippled his foreign policy, is that his principles have not been defined with enough rigor to provide definitive guidance in a crisis. When the crisis comes, that's when the debate starts. What exactly is the national interest, and how does it apply in this or that case? Even if he accomplishes that, he still lacks a figure with the subtlety, deviousness and frankly ruthlessness to put it into place. I would argue that the same problem haunted the George W. Bush and Clinton administrations, although their challenges were less daunting and therefore their weakness less visible.There is a sphere in which history sweeps a president along. The most he can do is adjust to what must be, and in the end, this is the most important sphere. In another sphere -- the sphere of principles -- he can shape events or at least clarify decisions. But the most important level, the level on which even the sweep of history is managed, is the tactical. This is where deals are made and pressure is placed, and where the president can perhaps shift the direction of history.Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has not had a president who operated consistently and well in the deeper levels of history. This situation is understandable, since the principles of the Cold War were so powerful and then suddenly gone. Still, principles without definition and execution without precision cannot long endure."

"... When the jihadists stand and fight, as they have done in the northern Syrian town of Kobane, they get pounded. U.S. officials estimate the jihadists have lost 400 fighters in that battle. U.S. airstrikes have also hammered their infrastructure in Iraq and Syria, including oil wells and supply depots.There is some solid military planning in the U.S. strategy but it also includes some wishful thinking. The most dubious assumption is that Iraqi and Syrian recruits can win this fight against the extremists without U.S. advisers alongside them in battle."

Via MoA. Very informative interview of Gen. John Allen, the WH's anti-ISIS Czar!

"...Q: But you don’t see the FSA units that are being trained to fight ISIS as being those who will later fight the regime’s armed forces?No. What we would like to see is for the FSA and the forces that we will ultimately generate, train and equip to become the credible force that the Assad government ultimately has to acknowledge and recognize. There is not going to be a military solution here [in Syria]. We have to create so much credibility within the moderate Syrian opposition at a political level . . . that they earn their spot at the table when the time comes for the political solution. Now, there could be FSA elements that ultimately clash with the regime, that may well be the case, as they seek to defend themselves and those areas that they dominate and as they seek to defend their families and their ways of life . . . it could be an outcome. But the intent is not to create a field force to liberate Damascus—that is not the intent. The intent is that in the political outcome, they [the moderate Syrian opposition] must be a prominent—perhaps the preeminent voice—at the table to ultimately contribute to the political outcome that we seek..."

Sunday, October 26, 2014

"... A spokeswoman for Legion 5, an umbrella group of rebel units that receive American support through a covert CIA program, said that rebels are using TOW anti-tank missiles in their battle to slow the government advance. ... who identified herself only by the nom de guerre Um Mahmoud, or Mahmoud’s mother, denounced a claim by another rebel figure, Gen. Abduljabbar al Akidi, the former head of the opposition Aleppo military council, that the rebels were sending 1,500 troops to Kobani to fight. Gen. al Akidi made the claim Thursday to Al Jazeera, the Arabic-language satellite TV channel.Um Mahmoud said the situation was far too dire in Aleppo for the rebels to spare that many fighters...."

'... The Administration is also gearing up for a final push on the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran, hoping to meet the late November deadline for an agreement. From conversations we have held with senior contacts, there is little doubt that the dividing line runs – as it always has – between the differing US and Iranian requirements for the residual enrichment capability to be left to Tehran post settlement. A senior State Department analyst commented to us: “This is more a political problem rather a technical one. It depends entirely on what the political leadership in Washington and Tehran can convince themselves that their arguments have prevailed.” The US is making sure that it is keeping top Israelis officials, for example the defense minister, fully informed about the negotiations, but our sense is that Tel Aviv now exercises less of a veto over the talks. Returning to ISIL, the Administration’s message is that this will be a long engagement, with little expectation of rapid breakthroughs. Indeed, we are advised that Pentagon pessimism about this operation is at an all-time high.'

"... Anti-Shiism today is not so much the product of a retrograde or orthodox interpretation of Islam — widely labeledWahhabism — as it is the convergence of several political forces, the most important of which is a vulnerable state.Confronted by a number of internal and external threats — the Iranian pursuit of influence in the Gulf; the rise of Shiite power in post-invasion Iraq; the uprising in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia’s satellite state; and most importantly, the rise of a range of domestic challenges to Saudi authority since 2003, including criticism of deep state corruption and the absence of political rights — leaders in Riyadh have responded by fomenting discriminatory anti-Shiism. Rather than broadening participation or overturning inequalities, the regime’s impulse has been to pursue the politics of sectarian escalation...

With these priorities in mind, it is unlikely that American officials will do much to challenge Riyadh on either al-Nimr’s verdict or try to alter its sectarian behavior more generally. Critics have called on the United States to rethink its strategic ties to Riyadh. But doing so would require confronting not only the contradictions in American policy, especially given that it is close to a Saudi state that supported the rise of ISIS, even if indirectly, even while it now claims to be committed to the Islamic State’s destruction..."

Thursday, October 23, 2014

"... It is a sensible and sophisticated presentation that drives US neocons crazy. They can hardly control their grief at no longer having Mr Ahmadinejad around. He was so much easier to hate ..." (Gary Sick)"...

'.... Externally, the picture is not much better. While the commanding general of the anti-ISIL operations in Iraq and Syria is reporting optimistically about progress, the two major open questions – the deployment of US ground forces and the long-standing dilemma over Syria – remain unresolved. On the latter, the US finds itself being drawn deeper into Syrian politics in the form of a meeting with the Kurdish PYD party. Its armed wing the YPG is providing the main body of opposition on the ground to ISIL in Syria, but its links to the PKK in Turkey, which the US regards as a terrorist organization, is complicating relations with Ankara. A State Department official put it this way in a comment to us: “We know we have to grapple with the question of whether we are going after ISIL or Assad or both, but for the present we just want to postpone the decision.” The ground troop question is becoming ever more urgent in the light of ISIL’s consolidation in Anbar province from where it can threaten Baghdad airport. As a Democratic strategist commented to us: “The logic of war is forcing the President in a direction to which he is profoundly resistant.” On other subjects, following last week’s high level talks with Iran, a top State Department official is due to clarify the US position in a major speech on October 23rd. Our sense is that US officials feel that an agreement is within grasp – albeit far from assured. As US officials like to repeat: “even if the deal is 98% done, the final 2% could see it fall apart.”.."

"... Because of the consistency of such behaviour, the source added, many in the international community have started meeting opposition figures “only out of courtesy”. According to official sources, Saudi Arabia and other key backers in the region have been left dissatisfied by infighting within the opposition..."

Yaalon predicts end to Middle East newly created 'artificial' states. Not those TWO who are (by order of antiquity) 5000 & 3000 years old!!!!

"... "We have to distinguish between countries like Egypt, with their history. Egypt will stay Egypt," Ya'alon, who is on a visit to Washington, tells Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep.In contrast, Ya'alon says, "Libya was a new creation, a Western creation as a result of World War I. Syria, Iraq, the same — artificial nation-states — and what we see now is a collapse of this Western idea."

"... The big question is whether Iran feels that Pakistan’s Frontiers Corps is aiding the groups that cross into Iran or whether the Pakistani forces came under fire in this case through a mistake when they were chasing the same “miscreants” Iran presumably wished to target..."

'“The FC personnel were chasing miscreants when they came under attack by Iranian forces. It was a targeted attack on Pakistani forces,” the spokesperson added. One FC vehicle was completely destroyed due to intense firing by Iranian forces.Iranian border guards continued firing for six hours. However, Pakistani forces did not retaliate to the offensive of the neighbouring country.'

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

"... Also on Tuesday, US Secretary of State John Kerry met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Paris, to discuss the latest developments in Iraq and Syria.Kerry said the US had agreed to "intensify intelligence cooperation with respect to ISIL and other counter-terrorism challenges of the region".He said Moscow would also explore whether it could do more to help arm and train Iraq's embattled military..."

... and the crusade of the 'invisible hand' against the whole Arab banking sector continues!"... After a federal jury in Brooklyn found Arab Bank liable last month for financing Hamas operations during the Second Palestinian Intifada, Moussaoui sent a handwritten letter to the clerk of the court from a super-maximum security prison in Florence, Colorado, where he is serving a life sentence. (Moussaoui said he heard about the jury verdict on Fox News.) “I want to testify against financial institutions such as Arab Bank, Saudi American Bank, the National Commercial Bank of Saudi Arabia” and several individuals, Moussaoui wrote, “for their support and financing of Usama bin Laden and Al Qaeda from the time of the Eastern Africa embassy bombing, U.S.S. Cole bombing and 9/11.”

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

"As the pace of operations against ISIL accelerates but with inconclusive results, there are signs of rising tension between President Obama and his leading military advisers. In a visit to the Pentagon on October 8th, Obama received what a Department of Defense contact described to us as a “reality check.” With top Pentagon spokesmen acknowledging that air strikes by themselves will not check ISIL advances, the talk in Washington has turned to ground troops. Talks with regional allies, notably Turkey, about supplying combat forces have proved fruitless.As a State Department official remarked to us: “They all believe that the logic of the situation will compel us to intervene on the ground, so they will not make the first move.” Administration contacts tell us that both Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel accept this logic, but Obama and his inner circle remain resistant and thus the official line remains that ground troops are not under consideration. Another unresolved dilemma for the Administration’s posture is Syria. Advisers close to Obama now advocate giving less priority to efforts to unseat the Assad regime, at least until ISIL is sufficiently weakened. We do not, however, see this as likely to emerge as official policy. One unexpected beneficiary of the turmoil in Iraq may be the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Following a bilateral meeting between US and Iranian officials on October 14th in Vienna, Kerry will resume talks with his Iranian counterpart Mohammed Javed Zarif together with the EU negotiator Katherine Ashton there on the following day. While expectations for these sessions are modest, US officials tell us that the conflict with ISIL on which the US and Iran find themselves broadly aligned has made these talks more collegial. As one official put it: “We have found that we have interests in common.” Whether this will lead to tangible results remains to be seen."

"... Turkey is in the least enviable position in the region. Bursting at the seams with Syrian refugees, crawling with foreign and local jihadis, and on the receiving end of increasingly unrealistic demands from the West, the country is facing renewed internal violence from Kurds throughout the country.Certainly, the Turkish leadership has made several mistakes in its quest to see the Assad regime removed..."

"... The Ukraine crisis demonstrated that the West has no means to impose its twenty-first century worldview on Putin. To paraphrase Anthony Lake’s words of a quarter-century back, the US does not have leverage over Russia’s ways, now even beyond Russia’s borders..."

"... Being excluded from Tuesday’s coalition meeting is only the latest clear signal to the Syrian Opposition Coalition and the FSA from the Obama administration that they don’t see these groups as a credible or trusted partner in the fight against ISIS..."

"... The two countries are seen as competing for influence in regional affairs. Over the weekend, the Syrian National Coalition failed to agree on a prime minister during a summit in Turkey. A member of the SNC said the biggest dispute at the Istanbul meeting centred around a split between the favoured candidates of vital funders Saudi Arabia and Qatar..."

"... Turkey has blocked military aid or Kurdish volunteers from crossing into Kobani, but Idriss said he is hopeful that talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government, the largely autonomous Kurdish area of Iraq, will lead to weapons and ammunition support. If that comes to pass, the question is whether Turkey will allow it in.The airstrikes in Hakkari, about 250 miles east of Kobani, may suggest that the answer is “no.”

Friday, October 10, 2014

"... Turkish Kurds fought a decades-long insurgency in which 40,000 people were killed. A truce last year has been one of the main achievements of Erdogan's decade in power, but jailed Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan has said the peace process would collapse if Turkey permits Kobani to fall...."

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

"... Former Deputy Prime Minister Emrullah İşler defended the terrorist group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which is known for its brutal treatment of people in every place it has taken over, in a tweet he posted to his Twitter account late on Wednesday, stating, “ISIL also kills, but at least doesn't torture.”İşler's tweet, seen as supportive of the terrorist ISIL, which has been attacking the Syrian Kurdish border town of Kobani with heavy artillery for over three weeks, drew ire on Wednesday.İşler wrote: “What was the crime of the youth who died after he was struck by stones in the head? Even ISIL cannot hold a candle to those who did this. ISIL also kills, but at least does not torture.”

'MOSCOW. Oct 8 (Interfax) - Moscow believes it is unacceptable to take advantage of the fight against the Islamic State as a pretext for regime change attempts to in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said."It is unacceptable to use antiterrorist combat slogans in order to make attempts to change regimes. I hope nobody is talking about this," Lavrov said in commenting on some remarks by Turkish leaders.Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Tuesday that Ankara would agree to join a ground operation against the Islamic State in Syria if the U.S. guaranteed that its antiterrorist strategy implied the continuation of the struggle with Bashar al-Assad's regime.'

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Bacevich in the WaPo:"... , Syria has become at least the 14th country in the Islamic world that U.S. forces have invaded or occupied or bombed, and in which American soldiers have killed or been killed. And that’s just since 1980.Let’s tick them off: Iran (1980, 1987-1988), Libya (1981, 1986, 1989, 2011), Lebanon (1983), Kuwait (1991), Iraq (1991-2011, 2014-), Somalia (1992-1993, 2007-), Bosnia (1995), Saudi Arabia (1991, 1996), Afghanistan (1998, 2001-), Sudan (1998), Kosovo (1999), Yemen (2000, 2002-), Pakistan (2004-) and now Syria. Whew....."

"... The risk of empowering an al Qaida affiliate is a small price to pay for Nusra’s contributions on the battlefield, said Jeffrey White, a former senior Defense Intelligence Agency analyst who’s now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank..."

"... But unity within the Istanbul operations room frayed when the Turks and Qataris began to support Islamist fighters they thought would be more aggressive.... The Turks and Qataris insist they didn’t intentionally support the extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra or the Islamic State. But weapons and money sent to more moderate Islamist brigades made their way to these terrorist groups, and the Turks and Qataris turned a blind eye.“The operations room was chaos,” recalls one Arab intelligence source. He says he warned a Qatari officer, who answered: “I will send weapons to al-Qaeda if it will help” topple Assad. This determination to remove Assad by any means necessary proved dangerous. “The Islamist groups got bigger and stronger (see Something gave (part II) above)and the FSA day by day got weaker,” recalls the Arab intelligence source.The Saudi effort was run until late 2013 by Prince Bandar bin Sultan, at that time head of Saudi intelligence. Bandar was enthusiastic but undisciplined, adding to the chaos. Pushed by the United States, the Saudis in February replaced Bandar and gave oversight of the Syria effort to Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef. The program was less chaotic but no more effective in checking the rise of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State...."