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How many seats the GOP needs to lose for a "blue wave"

Paul Ryan is leaving Congress, but his party could lose seats in this election. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Republicans would need to lose 48 U.S. House seats and seven U.S. Senate seats to technically qualify as a "wave" election against the president's party, according to a new report from Ballotpedia.

Why it matters: The report is really about semantics and establishing an objective definition of a "wave election," but it gives important historical context for the 2018 election and helps better understand each party's chances in November.

How they got the numbers

Ballotpedia defines a "wave" election as "one in which the net seat change by the president's party falls into the top quintile of historical changes." They compiled data from 1918 to 2016.

U.S. House: In 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, the president's party lost 48 or more seats in the House. Six of those 11 "wave" elections occurred during the president's first midterm election.

U.S. Senate: In 10 of the 48 Senate elections since 1918 the president's party lost seven or more seats. Three of those 10 "wave" elections were in the president's first midterm.

Down-ballot: Republicans would need to lose seven gubernatorial seats, and 494 state legislative seats for those to be considered "wave" elections.

Bottom line: Democrats need to pick up two dozen seats in the House and claim a net gain of two seats in the U.S. Senate to win both of those chambers. Even if it's not considered a "wave," that'll be a win for the Democratic Party.

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