As the UN launches its biggest ever humanitarian appeal, here are five things the numbers tell us

This month,
the United Nations launched its humanitarian appeal for 2015, just like it always does around this time of the
year. Except this time, it is the biggest appeal in the history of the
organisation, calling for $16.4 billion to assist 57.5 million people in 22
countries over the coming 12 months.

Humanitarian appeals are growing at a historic rate and, if the last three or four years’ trend continues, could top US$30 billion by the end of the decade.
But what else are the numbers telling us about the state of the world as a new year begins, and what do they suggest about the state of the
humanitarian system?

Here are the five key observations to keep in mind.

1. Aid is concentrated in
a small number of conflict zones which require
fundamentally political – not humanitarian – solutions.

The lion’s share of
funds in the 2015 appeal (around 70%) will go to four major crises – Syria, South Sudan, Iraq, and the
Central African Republic. The root causes of these crises need long-term
political engagement to restore peace and stability. While aid is urgently
required, it will only serve as a temporary palliative for affected people.

Humanitarian
needs will continue to increase unless more is done to tackle the underlying
social and political drivers of violence in these locations. This political
engagement is already underway in a number of cases but is under-developed in
places like Iraq and Syria.

2. Today’s crises are becoming more and more unpredictable.

This can be seen in the growing gap between the consolidated appeal at the beginning of a year (such as the 2015 one just launched) and the revised requirements, or all UN-coordinated appeals, at the end of each year.

In 2005, the consolidated appeal matched the revised requirements spot on. But in 2014, new and worsening crises meant that an additional $5 billion in additional humanitarian funding was called for throughout the year.

That is, 40% of the humanitarian needs this year – from increasingly severe natural disasters to IS in Iraq and yet another
conflict in Gaza – weren’t foreseen at the start of the year. Given such
trends, it comes as no surprise that humanitarian appeals are increasing year
by year.

3. Governments are providing more and more
humanitarian assistance, but gone are the days when they would provide as much
as 70% of whatever the UN requested.

Especially in the last three years, governments
have consistently stepped up their funding of all UN-coordinated humanitarian
appeals. But the need for aid has increased much faster, so that the governments’
contributions no longer account for roughly 70% of whatever the UN asked for during
the course of a year.

In 2014, the total of all UN appeals were only around 52%
funded. Humanitarian requirements have outpaced donor funding to such a degree
that today’s 'new normal' seems to be closer to 50-60%.

All
UN-coordinated appeals and the percentage funded

4. The humanitarian community is now asking for far more aid per person/beneficiary than ever before.

If we took the $16.4 billion in humanitarian support the
UN is requesting for 2015, and distributed it across all 57.5 million intended beneficiaries, it comes to $288 per person – or twice the per capita amount requested in 2011.

The underlying reasons are not entirely clear, though two important
factors seem to be the challenges of 'staying and delivering' in highly
insecure locations (such as Syria, South Sudan, or Iraq) – and the costs involved in responding to emergencies in more costly
middle-income countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

Average allocation of dollar per beneficiary as planned in the annual appeals

5. Inequities in the allocation of
humanitarian assistance are stark and require greater justification to ensure
that aid is being provided on the basis of need.

The average allocated fund
may be $288 per person, but in reality, it differs dramatically on a
country-to-country basis.

The 2015 appeal, for example, plans to spend an average of $525 per person in
or from South Sudan and nearly $400 for those affected by the crisis
in Syria (including Syrian refugees), compared to US$77 per person in Yemen. Again, factors
such as different levels of operation costs feed into these numbers. But there
is clearly a need to monitor and transparently justify such distributions to
ensure that needs – not donor priorities or other factors – drive humanitarian
allocations.

The challenges ahead

Several challenges lie ahead to prepare for the emergencies of 2015. First of all,
there is a need to expand the donor base to maintain and increase the level of
funding. Countries such as China or Turkey have been increasing their
humanitarian funding, which will hopefully continue into the new year.

Secondly, existing donors will need to provide funding for
longer periods and for more flexible use, which could bring
fewer urgent appeals and more of an effort to plan ahead of time.

Finally, aid
agencies will have to make more effective use of funds by working to their
comparative advantage and, importantly, by designing aid programmes appropriate
to the context.

If recent trends are any indication, 2015 is likely to be
another difficult year with existing challenges, such as the crisis in Syria
and the region, straining the humanitarian system even as unanticipated crises
loom. Keeping the above points in mind may help to cushion the blow.