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I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Sunday, November 29, 2015

I went 0-2 last
Saturday.Ironically, my predictions for
last weekend were pretty accurate except for the two games that qualified as
plays. Seems to be a fitting way to end what has been my second worst ATS
season ever (I went 7-18 one season years ago).

I don’t predict the
championship game or any of the bowl games. Too many variables in the approach
teams take in bowl games. Some don’t want to be there, others look at the game
like it’s a reward or holiday and fail to prepare seriously, and then there are
the coaches who use the game as a scrimmage for next year. So I’ll use this
final post to not only recap last Saturday’s game, but to also submit some
brief comments/opinions summarizing the season for each team. I may find the
time in the next few weeks to submit some random posts pertaining to college
football over on my other site, joetopic.

I predicted Michigan to win, 21-14.
The Buckeyes took ‘em to the woodshed. I was looking forward to an even match
but my all-time favorite game to watch turned out to be a blowout. I still
enjoyed the grey skies setting at Michigan stadium with both of the teams’
iconic helmets on the same field. And it was a competitive first half. But Ohio
St. was just flat out better.

I predicted in the preseason
that Ohio St. would lose a game. I
guessed it might be this one but it turned out to be against Michigan St. The
odds against an undefeated season are generally tuff to begin with, and it’s
also difficult to maintain the necessary hunger that drives a team to a championship
when following a successful season. I guess it’s fair say Ohio St. didn’t live
up to expectations this season, but of course, much of that is due to the fact that, given the amount
of players returning from last season’s championship team, the Buckeyes were
expected to go undefeated during the regular season. And to dominate opponents
along the way. It didn’t quite work out that way. My contention is that losing
last season’s OC, Tom Herman, is a huge reason why. Well, that coupled with the
fact that his replacement is former Nebraska OC Tim Beck. While Beck was at
Nebraska I found his play calling to be frustrating for the same reasons
Buckeyes RB Ezekiel Elliot infamously pointed out after the Michigan St. loss.
I don’t think it’s coincidence that three QBs played great while Herman was on
staff, great enough for some to proclaim that whoever would start this season
would easily be all-conference, and then played not near as great this season
without Herman on staff. HC Urban Meyer is one of the best, but I disagree with
his dismissal of the idea that “looking over your shoulder” can be a hindrance
for a QB. But, criticisms aside, it speaks to how great Meyer and this Ohio St.
program has become when one loss is considered a disappointing season. As long
as Meyer is the coach, Ohio St. will be a conference contender, if not
favorite, for years to come. And as a “by the way” to the Buckeyes’ season, I
find former QB turned H-back Braxton Miller’s story kinda surreal. Here you
have a kid who a little over a year and a half ago was the returning two time
conference player of the year entering the season as a Heisman candidate and
starting QB for what turned out to be a national championship team. And last
Saturday, Miller’s name wasn’t even mentioned until midway through the second
quarter.

I’m
kinda proud to say that I predicted Michigan
to go 9-3 this season. Most expected a few more losses, figuring that new HC
Jim Harbaugh would need time to rebuild the program from the 5-7 team he
inherited. So despite the disheartening loss to Ohio St., this season can still
be easily considered a success. Good coaching is so integral to success in college
football and Michigan picked up a good one in Harbaugh and, just as integral,
unloaded a not so good one. Solid QB play is also important, so bringing in
former two year starter Jake Rudock as a transfer from Iowa was a big score.
Rudock is good, but not great. I think former QBs, such as Harbaugh, are
significantly better at coaching and handling QBs than coaches who’ve never
played the position. Contrast Harbaugh’s handling of Rudock to Urban Meyer’s
handling of his two QBs, both of which are better talents than Rudock. While
Meyer was testing his QB’s confidence as he pitted them against each other,
Harbaugh stood by Rudock’s side after he threw three interceptions and played
poorly in the opener. Told the media flat out, that Rudock is his guy. Heck, he
even had his arm around Rudock on the sidelines immediately after he threw the
picks. Rudock’s not going to be a pro QB and Harbaugh knows it. But later in
the season he was openly pumping the kid up as he told the media that an
improving Rudock has been playing at a pro prospect level. And it worked. I
think it’s fair to say that Rudock ended up with a better season than any of
the Ohio St. QBs. Rudock will be gone next season, but Harbaugh won’t be. I
think Michigan will be a contender next season and for many seasons to come as
Harbaugh recruits to and establishes his system.

Michigan St. 55Penn St. 16(Michigan St. -7.5)

I predicted Penn St. to win,
17-15. I shoulda regarded my “note to self- don’t pick Penn St.” pledge that I
made earlier in the season. Actually, I was banking on a Michigan St. letdown
more than I was considering a Penn St. highpoint. Michigan St. came out and
scored on the first drive and Penn St. was, well, Penn St.

Fiveseasons ago Michigan St.
HC Mark Dantonio was considered by myself, among others, to be the best coach in
the conference. Now he’s probably considered third best by most. Dantonio and
his program hasn’t gotten any worse, though. Only better. And considering his Spartans
beat both Ohio St. and Michigan en route to a division title this season, a
strong case could be made that Dantonio takes a back seat to no other coach in
this conference, maybe even the whole country. Michigan St. was another team
that most considered to be underperforming throughout most of the season as
they won by small margins over bottom dwelling teams and even lost to a
Nebraska team that finished 5-7. Yet here they are, playing in the conference
championship game for the third time in five years. Dantonio has done some
great things with this program, but this season’s win over top ranked Ohio St.
at Columbus with a second string QB is his masterpiece. Hats off to Dantonio
and the Michigan St. players.

Penn St.
finished with a record close to what I predicted. Some expected better but I
didn’t. In fact, the Nittany Lions actually looked better than I expected at
times. HC James Franklin rubs me the wrong way. I don’t like his offense and I
don’t much care for his persona. I think he’s a great cheerleader and a great
salesman who will always be “pawwwsitive”. But I don’t think he’s a great “game
day” coach/strategist. And I’ve always been hard on QB Christian Hackenberg.
Which is probably unfair because most of my criticism stems from a reaction to
the overhyping the media heaped on this kid since he came to Penn St. He ain’t
all that. At least he hasn’t proven to be all that. And finally during this,
his third season, the media has started to realize it. Not so much hype
anymore. The problem with the hype and Hackenberg’s perceived potential is that
I think Franklin, up until maybe recently, feels a sense of obligation to try
to feature Hackenberg in his offense. To not do so might draw criticism for not
tapping into the supposed potential. I think it would be best for both Penn St.
and Hackenberg if he moved on. He has size and a big arm so he will always be
considered a pro prospect. And in fairness to Hackenberg, he would have had a
much better chance at succeeding under the HC he came to Penn St. to play for –
Bill O’Brien, than he’s had running Franklin’s high school offense. As I said,
Penn St. did look better at times than I expected, so maybe I’m being too hard
on Franklin because I will say that this season was an improvement over last
season’s debut. So the jury’s still out, I guess.

THE NON-PLAYS

Iowa 28Nebraska
20(Iowa -2.5)

I predicted Iowa to win, 30-21.
I could have just as easily reviewed my prediction write-up rather than watch
the game ‘cuz I was pretty much spot on (ATS Predictions - Week 13). The score was almost exact, Armstrong served up
four interceptions, and Nebraska was…well, dumb. Fourth and one at the Iowa 19
midway through the fourth quarter, down by 11, and Nebraska throws an
incomplete 50/50 fade pattern into the end zone with a QB who’s completing less
than half his passes. Hell, even the announcers, who are supposed to try to be
somewhat neutral, were calling the play “dumb”. The difference in this game,
which was pointed out by one of the announcers ad nauseam, was Armstrong’s poor
decisions compared to his counterpart’s – Iowa QB C.J. Beathard – solid
decisions. Beathard didn’t have a great game – he didn’t need to – but he
didn’t make any mistakes and managed the game’s situations well.

Armstrong’s poor decision
making has cost Nebraska more than
once this season. The thing is, Armstrong has a great arm and is a dangerous
runner, so on many occasions he’s made some great plays to help his team out.
He just needs to be managed better. I mean, after so many mistakes (sixteen
interceptions this season) you have to either make your point with the kid or
sit him down. There’s no telling from the couch what actually goes on at
practice or on the sidelines during games, but judging from press conferences
and interviews I get the impression that new HC Mike Riley isn’t getting his
players full attention. I mean, the man comes off like Fred Rogers. Sure, he’s
a nice guy, the anti-Bo Pelini. But a college football coach has to have some
fire or at least convey an image that commands discipline from his players,
doesn’t he? I don’t see that in Riley. I also don’t see what would make anyone
think that a lifelong .500 coach would suddenly become more than a .500 coach.
Nebraska’s 5-7 record is exactly what they bargained for.

I’ve always liked Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz and defended him
through some recent subpar seasons. Up until the start of this season, that is.
After last season’s up and down performance I’d finally had enough and threw
Ferentz under the bus in my preseason conference prediction post. Basically
said he was washed up, his time had come and gone. Even during this season I
was calling for Ferentz and his team to stumble at some point against lesser
competition and spoil an undefeated regular season. But Ferentz has a history
of doing well just when he’s about to be counted out and he repeated the stunt
to perfection this season. QB C.J. Beathard has a legitimate shot at all
conference despite not putting up eye popping statistics. In fact, the knock on
Iowa from most fans and analysts is that there is nothing “eye-popping” about
the Hawkeyes. I think that’s more perception, a result of coming out of nowhere
with and offense that doesn’t throw the ball over the field, than reality. This
team is the real deal and they’re getting better, especially on offense. Just
because the schedule wasn’t as challenging as that of some other teams doesn’t
mean Iowa isn’t as good as anyone in the country. It just means we don’t have
the best barometer. Don’t count ‘em out in the Conference Championship game.
Don’t count ‘em out at all.

Northwestern 24Illinois 14(Northwestern -1.5)

I predicted Northwestern to
win, 24-17. Almost hit this one right on the Willy. I got “U’d” again so I
didn’t get to watch this game.

Can only say good things
about HC Pat Fitzgerald and his Northwestern
Wildcats. My preseason outlook for this team was pretty much the same as what I
envisioned for Iowa, nothing near as good as this season’s 10-2 record and
national ranking. Mainly due to the fact that Northwestern’s previous season was,
like Iowa’s, very sporadic. Gotta hand it to Fitzgerald. He did it with a new,
young QB who didn’t really throw the ball all that well. The season featured an
opening game upset against a Stanford team that’s currently ranked in the top
fifteen. Can’t really count Northwestern among the top few teams in the
conference given the two back to back blowout losses in the middle of the
season, but they did bounce back and, unlike last season, remained consistent
and took care of business the rest of the way.

Illinois got
a fast start out of the gates and faded in the stretch. Finding an excuse to
get rid of former HC Tim Beckman just before the start of the season was a
blessing for this team. The team was a trainwreck under his watch and it wasn’t
until his interim replacement, OC Bill Cubit, arrived a few seasons ago that at
least some signs of improvement – all on the offensive side – began to show.
The “interim” label has recently been removed thus making Cubit the official HC
for next season. The two year contract is unusual, but in this case it makes
sense. Illinois currently doesn’t have an athletic director in place and Cubit
does have this team playing better than it ever did under Beckman, so he’s
earned a longer look. But losing six of the last seven games is cause enough for
caution.

Wisconsin 31Minnesota
21(Wisconsin -1.5)

I predicted Wisconsin to win,
27-20. Once again, I was pretty close with the score. After giving up an early
pick six, Wisconsin was in control through most of this game. I was a bit
surprised to see Wisconsin have so much success on the ground, but not a bit
surprised that Wisconsin’s defense made things very tuff for the Minnesota
offense.

Wisconsin
did much better than I expected this season. I figured the transition to a new
HC would set the Badgers back a bit. I’m impressed with the new guy, Paul
Chryst. Chryst inherited an inexperienced offensive line and it showed most of
the season when the Badgers struggled to run the ball. So Chryst adapted and
used a more pass oriented offense and was successful enough to coach the team
to a 9-3 campaign, which could arguably have been 10-2 had it not been for a
horrible call from the officials in the previous Saturday’s game against
Northwestern. Chryst, a former Wisconsin QB, is another example I would use to
point out that former QBs are significantly better at coaching and,
consequently, getting the most out of their QB. Wisconsin QB Joel Stave, who
started two seasons ago, was benched prior to the beginning of last season and
was visibly and admittedly lacking confidence. This season, Stave was at his
best ever. Not perfect, but it could be argued that Stave, along with a very
good defense, was the primary contributor to most of the nine wins. Chryst is a
heckuva play caller. If he can recruit, the Badgers will be in the conference
championship mix for seasons to come.

Minnesota
had a season that can only be considered disappointing. After a promising
campaign last season, the Gophers regressed to 5-7 and HC Jerry Kill resigned
in midseason due to health reasons. Starting QB Mitch Leidner is a good enough
competitor, but he started out poorly in the passing game and it hurt the
Gophers. Leidner improved toward the end of the season, but still not good
enough to say the issue is resolved. Losing Kill is an unfortunate blow to the
program. I’m not sure what to expect from his replacement, Tracey Claeys, but
my initial impression is to say that I’m not all that impressed.

Indiana 54Purdue
36(Indiana -8)

I predicted Indiana to win, 35-30.
My prediction write-up was for the most part accurate. Purdue just didn’t keep
pace as much I’d guessed. And in a game with defenses as porous as these two, a
certain amount of guesswork has to be utilized.

I predicted Indiana would become bowl eligible. I
also pointed out that I based this mostly on a soft schedule as opposed to any
significant amount of improvement in the team. I’ve been complaining about HC
Kevin Wilson for years now. Most all analysts say that Wilson has Indiana “on
the right track”. I say it’s the same track Indiana has been on for the last
couple of decades. Sure, they’ve been competitive in games against upper
echelon teams that have gone down to the wire. But they never win. They’ve also
been involved in competitive games against lower echelon teams that have gone
down to the wire. They usually win those, but not always. Wilson has put
together an offense that can score on anybody. But he’s never put together a
defense that can stop anybody. Bottom line is they lose most of their games.
About as many as most all of Wilson’s predecessors, the most recent of which
was fired after four seasons. But somehow Wilson gets a pass for his flashy
offense and gets to stay on for what will be his sixth season. There’s no
argument the man puts together a great offense, but his teams aren’t going to
win many games until he puts together a defense that’s at least slightly below
average.

Just when Purdue seems to take a step forward,
they seem to take a step back, leaving them right where they started, at the
bottom of the conference. I thought Purdue would take a step forward this
season ‘cuz they showed signs of improvement last season. But every time they
seemed to take a step forward… well, you know. The Purdue decision makers gave
HC Darrell Hazell an endorsement citing that more time is needed to get this
program turned around, so he’ll be back for at least another season. I dunno. I
will say that despite the poor records, Hazell never seems to lose his team.
They’ll occasionally turn in some exceptionally bad performances, but they
always seem to fight hard up to the last whistle of the season. But I’m not
really finding much else to make me think that this regime will elevate the
Boilermakers to anything more than maybe lower middle tier. For one thing,
Hazell seems to have a difficult time deciding on a QB, or keeping a QB, or
developing a QB. This season’s starter, or I guess I should say finisher (until
he was injured), David Blough, showed promise. So maybe Purdue will improve next
season if Blough stays with the program and Hazell stays with Blough. But,
given the track record, that’s a big “if”.

Maryland 46Rutgers
41(Rutgers -2.5)

I
predicted this game to go into overtime at 38. As I said in my prediction
write-up, a couple of lousy defenses here and nothing really stands out to say
one team is better than the other, so seven points either way would be a good
enough point spread to make a play. And as it turned out, it would have been.

I
thought it was kind of strange that Maryland
would fire HC Randy Edsall only six games into the season. Maryland did better
than I expected in the previous season, their inaugural season in the
conference. But since the Terps are so new to the conference, I don’t know the
history. And Edsall’s personality rubbed me the wrong way anyway, so good
riddance as far as I’m concerned. Turnovers, more specifically interceptions,
killed this team this season. Maryland will have to either get a new QB or work
on the current candidates during the offseason. But first, they’ll have to hire
a HC.

Rutgers made
kind of a bad impression in this its second season as one of the conferences
two newest members. The HC and multiple players were either suspended or flat
out kicked off the team for inappropriate conduct. The roster wasn’t very good
to begin with, so the aforementioned distractions had this team swimming against
the current from the start. Rutgers has some talented players, just not enough of
‘em to be all that competitive in this conference. I guess the idea is that
becoming a member of the Big Ten will attract enough talent from the New York
area to turn the Scarlet Knights into a legitimate contender. Hasn’t happened
yet and probably won’t by next season.

Stanford 38Notre
Dame 36(Stanford -3.5)

I predicted this game to go
into overtime at 31. Once again, my prediction was pretty close to the outcome.
I’ve been saying for quite some time now that I don’t trust Notre Dame’s
defense, so I was pretty much braced for this outcome when Stanford had the
ball at its own 27 trailing by one point with 30 seconds left in the game.

I think Notre Dame HC Brian Kelly is possibly the best offensive play
caller in all of college football and this season, even with his second choice
starting QB for all but one game, had a championship offense at his disposal. It’s
a shame to see it go to waste. The Irish need a new DC. And a good one. Kelly
admits that he’s kind of a control freak, and that’s a good trait for a HC.
But, save one season, defense has been a thorn in his side through most of his
tenure at ND. I think Kelly needs to bring in a really good DC – and Notre Dame
certainly has the status to attract one – and stay out of his way. Still, this
was a good season for the Irish – only two plays away. But even though it’s
been a while, undefeated seasons and or championships are still the definition
of success at Notre Dame. Thanks to Kelly, the Irish are getting close.

ATS

FTC
DOLLARS

In this section I track the
results of my predictions that qualify as “plays” ATS (any predicted point
spread that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve also
included the results (conference games only) of some unsuspecting
prognosticators that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC”
dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section and the
definition of a “play”, please refer to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of
this post or click here→ FTC $ Q&A.

The final results are in.
Brent Yarina is this season’s overall winner with a total of 125 FTC dollars.
My miserable season left me at the bottom for the first time ever. Glad it’s
over.

Links to last Saturday’s
predictions from all contestants can be found in the “Details” section below.

The full list of last
Saturday’s predictions from each contestant can be found by clicking the link
listed under “website”.

SEASON STATS

Listed below are this
season’s final stats for various categories.

Again, links to last
Saturday’s predictions from all contestants can be found in the “Details”
section.

SPREAD RECORD

W

L

STRAIGHT UP

W

L

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

26

25

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

43

10

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

26

26

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

39

14

FROM THE COUCH

24

29

FROM THE COUCH

37

13

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

22

30

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

38

15

WITHIN 7

W

L

CLOSEST

W

L

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

23

30

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

25

26

FROM THE COUCH

20

33

FROM THE COUCH

22

31

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

18

35

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

21

31

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

17

36

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

20

32

SPREAD
RECORD-
This category disregards my seven point “play” system and simply displays the
ATS record.

STRAIGHT UP-
Theoutright winner, disregarding
the spread.

WITHIN 7-This
category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points
of the actual final score differential. Why does this matter? Because one can
never lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35
percent is about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.

CLOSEST – This
category tracks the number of times a predicted point spread was more accurate
than the Vegas point spread. This category differs from the Spread Record
category because it’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not
be as accurate as the oddsmakers. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread
is Michigan by 6, and Michigan wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record
category. I get a loss in the closest category because the oddsmakers’ point spread
(7-6=1) was closer to the final
score differential than my prediction (12-7=5).

Any games that go into
overtime will be considered a tie when calculating the “closest” and “within 7”
category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.

NOTRE DAME

I predict Notre Dame games
along with the Big Ten conference games. My Notre Dame predictions aren’t
included in the above standings and statistics because my competition doesn’t
predict Notre Dame games. So I’ve separately listed the stats for my Notre Dame
game predictions below.