Thailand to Consider Rate Increase as Risks Subside

Bandid Nijathaworn, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, pauses during an interview in Bangkok. Photographer: Jeremy Horner/Bloomberg

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand will consider raising the
benchmark interest rate, the central bank said, after the
nation’s worst political violence in almost two decades ended
without derailing the economic recovery.

“The downside risks to growth that we were concerned about
in April and May have substantially reduced,” Deputy Governor
Bandid Nijathaworn, who is in charge of monetary stability and
assists in the central bank’s rate decisions, said in an
interview in Bangkok on July 2. “Policy rate normalization
would be back on the agenda.”

Thailand has refrained from joining Taiwan, Malaysia, India
and Australia in raising borrowing costs this year, choosing to
keep its benchmark rate at 1.25 percent in June as local
political unrest and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis threatened
the economy. Bandid’s comments add to signs the central bank is
preparing to increase rates for the first time since August 2008.

“There is a high possibility the central bank may raise
the rate at its next meeting as the economic environment now
points to that direction,” said Benjarong Suwankiri, an
economist at TMB Bank Pcl in Bangkok. “They need to preempt
inflationary pressure, which may accelerate soon. It may be too
late to wait until later this year.”

Governor Tarisa Watanagase said last month policy makers
must “be careful” about inflation. The next policy meeting is
on July 14.

Anti-Government Clashes

Manufacturing and tourism were crimped by anti-government
protests in May, even as overseas sales and local consumption
strengthened, central bank data show. Thai exports rose 42.5
percent in May, the most since July 2008.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is working on a national
reconciliation plan after clashes between protesters and the
military in April and May killed 89 and injured more than a
thousand people. Many parts of the country, including Bangkok,
remain in a state of emergency.

“The decline in consumption and tourism turned out to be
more limited than what we had feared,” Bandid said. “We are
confident that the economic momentum will continue in the second
half of the year, supported by the recovery of the global
economy and the government’s supportive policies.”

Rising exports and a recovery in domestic demand is
supporting earnings at companies including Siam Cement Pcl and
Hemaraj Land & Development Pcl. Siam Cement said last week the
start up of a new $1.2 billion petrochemical plant would help it
maintain profit growth, and Hemaraj said net income will jump
about 50 percent this year on increased land sales.

Economy Resilient

Nomura Holdings Inc. revised its 2010 forecast for
Thailand’s growth to 6 percent from its earlier projection of
3.3 percent, it said last week in a research note written by
Singapore-based economists Euben Paracuelles and Yougesh Khatri.
Economic data in April and May suggest the economy remained
resilient after the political unrest, according to the report.

Still, the central bank is “mindful” about the
“lingering weakness” in the global economy and that that the
recovery in tourism will probably take time, Bandid said.

Raising the key interest rate isn’t likely to significantly
increase capital inflows because the nation’s benchmark is
“probably one of the lowest” in the region, Bandid said. The
country has no plan to impose new rules to curb capital inflows
because the existing policies “remain adequate,” he said.

“Even if we were to begin normalizing interest rates, the
level that we will be at after the first move probably won’t be
as high as others in the region,” Bandid said.

‘Appreciation Pressure’

Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate is 6.5 percent and the
Philippines’ is 4 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve in June left
the key rate target unchanged in a range of zero to 0.25 percent,
where it has been since December 2008, and retained a pledge to
maintain it at a record low for an “extended period.”

“As the U.S. may not increase rates anytime soon, a policy
rate hike by Thailand would put appreciation pressure on the
baht,” said Minori Uchida, senior analyst in Tokyo at Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “But such pressure will be temporary
unless they will successively boost rates. The chance of a
second hike this year would be only 50-50 because of concern
about growth in Europe and the U.S.”

The baht may rise by as much as 3.6 percent to 31.3 per
dollar before the end of this year, he said.

An appreciation in the Chinese currency will help increase
Thailand’s shipments to its biggest export market, which
accounts for about 11 percent of the total, Bandid said.

Yuan Move ‘Beneficial’

China on June 19 said it was resuming a flexible exchange
rate, scrapping the peg to the dollar, to curb inflation and
rebalance the economy away from overseas sales. The yuan has
strengthened about 0.8 percent since then, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. The baht traded at 32.42 from 32.40 on
June 18.

The yuan move “would be beneficial in the longer term in
promoting our exports to China,” Bandid said. “China is a big
market for Thailand.”

The Bank of Thailand said last month it intervened to curb
the Thai baht’s strength after China said it would allow greater
flexibility in the yuan. The baht has gained 2.7 percent this
year, the third-best performer in Asia outside Japan, according
to Bloomberg data.

Thailand’s shipments to China, the world’s third-largest
economy, climbed 53 percent in the first five months of 2010,
according to government data, outpacing a 35 percent gain in
overall exports. A stronger yuan would increase the purchasing
power of consumers in China and make their goods more expensive
for overseas buyers compared with those from Thailand.