The Count: Goalies, Defensemen Are Risky NHL Draft Picks

Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman is at the top of some mock drafts, but history suggests his position poses risks.

Ahead of Friday’s NHL draft, several bloggers have been crunching the numbers on recent draft history. Among their findings: Good defensemen and goalies are hard to find, and other teams should emulate the Buffalo Sabres.

A blogger who goes by Daoust mined 15 years of drafting to study outcomes for players taken at various positions. Two in five first-round picks went on to play 200 NHL games, compared to just one in 18 drafted in the third round or later. He also found that defensemen taken in the first 10 picks, and goalies taken anywhere in the draft, were less likely than forwards in the same positions to become regulars or stars in the league.

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