Calm Down and Do the Math

Is President Obama ahead or tied in Ohio? If you look at the poll released this morning, from Quinnipiac University, the clear answer is that Obama has a solid lead—five points, as a matter of fact. But if you tuned in this afternoon and saw the poll from Suffolk University—which shows a tie between Obama and Mitt Romney—you’ll either be panicked (if you’re a Democrat) or thrilled (if you’re a Republican).

All of which makes today a case study in why you shouldn’t give too much weight to individual polls. At this point in the election, dozens of companies are polling thousands of people in an attempt to get some sense of where the electorate stands. Each pollster will have a different methodology, a different strategy for getting respondents, and a different way of weighting the various answers. Some sample sizes will be incredibly small, others will be unusually large.

All of these variables and all of this activity means that, every so often, polls will show mutually exclusive results. When this happens—today, for example—the correct response isn’t to ask which is “right” and which is “wrong.” Rather, it’s to look for averages and other tools that give a collective look at the polling. Outliers balance out outliers, and you are given a better picture of where the race stands. This doesn’t have to be sophisticated; even something as crude as the Real Clear Politics average—which relies on the latest polls—is preferable to individual surveys.

Now, with all of that out of the way, what does Ohio, that battleground of all battlegrounds, look like? According to the average of averages—drawn from aggregating results from Pollster, Real Clear Politics, and Talking Points Memo—Obama is ahead by 2.4 points. If you support the president, this is a solid sign for November 6. —Jamelle Bouie

So They Say

“The highest patriotism is not a blind acceptance of official policy, but a love of one's country deep enough to call her to a higher plain.”

Poll of the Day

As we wait these last few hours before the presidential candidates spar over foreign policy, many Americans have already made up their minds on what our role should be overseas. A new Pew survey shows that across ideologies, Americans are ready for the United States to take a smaller role in the Middle East—63 percent in total.