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The Thai government declared a state of emergency following the
opposition's storming of parliament April 7. The events occurred ahead
of an April 12 deadline set by the opposition for the dissolution of
parliament. The government thus appears headed for a showdown with the
opposition.

Analysis

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva called a "state of emergency"
April 7 as mass protests by the United Front for Democracy against
Dictatorship (UDD), aka the Red Shirts, grew more provocative. The
Cabinet also extended the Internal Security Act through April 8-20,
clearing the government to continue using the military to police the
mass protests after the Red Shirts stormed parliament, forcing the
cancellation of a Cabinet meeting and lawmakers to flee.

The latest round of mass protests began March 12 when the Red Shirts -
supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra - gathered
in Bangkok. While the protests initially numbered about 100,000, they
have since dropped to about 20,000. This remainder has spread out across
the capital in the past week and has resorted to more provocative
actions such as makeshift bombs and an April 6 clash with riot police.
These more aggressive actions appear to have intensified the remaining
protesters' zeal. Further violence is thus more likely, particularly as
the April 12 deadline set by the Red Shirts for the prime minister to
dissolve the government approaches.

In Thailand's ongoing political contests, protesters have tried to goad
security forces into a violent crackdown, thereby generating widespread
public sympathy for the opposition and revulsion toward the government.
But a crackdown would further undermine the ruling Democrat Party
coalition's legitimacy, improving the electoral chances of its coalition
partners and the opposition. The government has avoided falling into
this trap thus far, ensuring its continued legitimacy. For example, a
spokesman for the government security agency the Center for the
Administration of Peace and Order said April 5 that security forces have
stepped up pressure on the Red Shirts to leave the Ratchaprasong
intersection but will not use force to disperse them. Vejjajiva also
reiterated April 6 that the government had no intention of using force
and that the police were sent out as a reminder that such assemblies are
illegal under the now-extended Internal Security Act.

As with the Red Shirt storming of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) summit in April 2009, however, the government is not
likely to allow the storming of parliament to go unpunished. Hard-liners
within the government and security establishment, along with Bangkok's
elites, are pushing for a firmer response. As the government feels
growing pressure to take firmer action, Abhisit canceled his April 10-15
trip to the United States for an international nuclear summit and
shortened his trip to an April 8-9 ASEAN summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. While
no leader wants to be out of the country during such internal strife,
the threat of coups in Thailand is particularly acute -Thaksin was
himself ousted while visiting the United States in 2006.

Until today, the Red Shirts had avoided causing as dramatic a disruption
as their storming of the ASEAN summit in April 2009. Now, they have
crossed a similar threshold. While violence has not yet neared the
levels of last year's conflict, which saw widespread clashes in the
streets, the country appears headed in that direction.

The state of emergency decree suggests the government is gearing up for
a showdown. The Democrat Party wants to avoid holding elections until it
feels it has the upper hand. If it calls elections now, it will be seen
as giving in to Red Shirt demands. So far, the government has enjoyed
the support of Thailand's top military generals. The Thai army is
reluctant to make another intervention into the political realm,
especially because the current generation of military leaders hopes to
ensure a smooth transition to the next generation. But should the
security situation leave the government widely discredited and/or
violence spiral out of control, military intervention could not be ruled
out - as always in Thailand.

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