Alexander Burmistrov was an interesting selection at eighth overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. Having now played 147 NHL games, he remains an interesting selection.

Burmistrov was the fourth forward drafted out of the OHL, behind Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, and Jeff Skinner, which meant that the then-Atlanta Thrashers were one spot out of the really elite OHL talent that year. Here are all the forwards taken in the first two rounds out of the OHL that year, along with goal and point projections over a hypothetical 82-game OHL season based on their production in 2009-10.

Player

Drafted

GP

G

A

PTS

PTS/82

G/82

Taylor Hall

1

57

40

66

106

152

58

Tyler Seguin

2

63

48

58

106

138

62

Jeff Skinner

7

64

50

40

90

115

64

Alex Burmistrov

8

62

22

43

65

86

29

Joey Hishon

17

36

16

24

40

91

36

Austin Watson

18

52

20

34

54

85

32

Jared Knight

32

63

36

21

57

74

47

John Mcfarland

33

64

20

30

50

64

26

Dalton Smith

34

62

21

23

44

58

28

Christian Thomas

40

64

41

25

66

85

53

Devante Smith-Pelly

42

60

29

33

62

85

40

Ryan Spooner

45

47

19

35

54

94

33

Tyler Toffoli

47

65

37

42

79

100

47

Phil Lane

52

64

18

14

32

41

23

There are lots of interesting picks in that group, but overall it follows the same curve as the rest of the draft: the top talent was available early on, then there was a steep drop to a bunch of guys at around the same level of offensive talent (the exceptions to this are guys who were either a) famous prospects or b) big and gritty – John Mcfarland fitting under the former category and Phil Lane fitting under the second). Burmistrov probably deserves a bit of a bump because he’s a first-year European player in North America, but even so it’s hard to look at his draft-year offense and find a lot of gap between him and guys like Watson, Thomas and Smith-Pelly.

So far, Burmistrov has struggled to provide the offense, despite the Thrashers bizarre decision a year ago to play him in the NHL immediately.

According to hockey-reference.com, 24 players have played 100 games or more by their 20-year old season since the NHL lockout. Here’s the list, ranked by points-per-game:

Player

GP

G

A

PTS

GC

+/-

S

S%

PTS /GM

Sidney Crosby

213

99

195

294

104

27

701

14.1

1.38

Steven Stamkos

243

119

113

232

94

-12

750

15.9

0.95

Anze Kopitar

154

52

86

138

51

-27

394

13.2

0.9

Patrick Kane

162

46

96

142

50

-7

445

10.3

0.88

Jonathan Toews

146

58

65

123

48

23

339

17.1

0.84

Matt Duchene

161

51

71

122

46

-7

382

13.4

0.76

Taylor Hall

126

49

46

95

38

-12

393

12.5

0.75

Jeff Skinner

143

51

56

107

43

-3

416

12.3

0.75

John Tavares

161

53

68

121

47

-31

429

12.4

0.75

Sam Gagner

223

44

87

131

47

-30

461

9.5

0.59

Evander Kane

210

62

62

124

50

1

640

9.7

0.59

Peter Mueller

153

35

55

90

34

-20

339

10.3

0.59

Tyler Seguin

152

38

49

87

34

28

362

10.5

0.57

Jakub Voracek

161

25

63

88

30

4

255

9.8

0.55

David Perron

143

28

49

77

28

29

229

12.2

0.54

Jordan Staal

245

63

56

119

49

16

480

13.1

0.49

Milan Lucic

149

25

44

69

25

15

185

13.5

0.46

Ryan O'Reilly

234

39

68

107

39

0

437

8.9

0.46

Josh Bailey

141

23

37

60

22

-9

186

12.4

0.43

Phil Kessel

152

30

36

66

26

-18

383

7.8

0.43

Guillaume Latendresse

153

32

24

56

24

-22

237

13.5

0.37

Magnus Paajarvi

121

17

25

42

16

-20

259

6.6

0.35

Alexander Burmistrov

147

19

29

48

18

-8

208

9.1

0.33

James Sheppard

160

9

34

43

14

-14

145

6.2

0.27

Burmistrov is second from bottom, ahead of only James Sheppard, a player who is either on the express train to Bustville or has already pulled into the station (Oilers fans will note Magnus Paajarvi’s location on the same list with frustration).

According to behindthenet.ca, Burmistrov is playing against middling opposition and getting lots of time in the offensive zone, and yet he’s marginally more effective offensively (on a relative to icetime basis) than Tanner Glass. The same was true last year – lousy opposition, lots of offensive zone time, 1.27 PTS/60 at even-strength. Given premium minutes, Burmistrov has responded with minimal offense.

I’m not criticizing Burmistrov’s two-way game, which is pretty good for his age. But – even with the caveat that he has lots of time and many of his peers are still playing junior hockey – I do wonder where his ceiling is offensively. I’d suggest it’s not nearly as high as draft position would dictate.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

Early in the season I recognized very good passing. If he is good defensively I can only see his passing improving. His shooting avg isn't bad. Shot total is. At 11% and more shots, he'd be an all-star. IDK if that means the medicine ball or a summer net to practise. One spot out of really elite OHL talent doesn't mean anything (yes, nice to have Skinner knowing his NHL goal totals), OHLer are 1/5 that round. You guys could maybe try to correct stats by giving QMJHL a goal penalty and SP reward, and I assume vice-versa for WHL.
I'd say is as good offensive upside as TB and Cmb selections. Knowing he stayed healthy his NHL years are good but it isn't like he learned anything offensively in Atl last year. Burmistrov looks way better than 3 players after him.
After him, Fowler at 12th, J.Schwartz 14th, Tarasenko 16th, Kuznetsov 26th all look equivalent...offensively. Etem ton of jr pts and Howden seems like a good two way player too. If he is stuck at 9% shooting avg and doesn't shoot more...Backstrom and Datsyuk didn't have good goal totals at first. I'd take Kuznetsov and Fowler ahead of him but is better than 4-6 picks.
Maybe the rule of thumb should be if offense is desired to develop, put him on what team is most gifted where he gets PP time? Not Atl last year. Maybe on the farm and trade for some AHL Krog-like ringers to complement him?
What is Burmistrov's shooting yr round training schedule vs Kane?

Crosby, Gretz, Tiger Woods, all got as good as they did by constant conditioning. Good role models. I'm more into hockey now because I don't have any respect for our federal government's AGW platform. I will want to be a spongey goalie in my 50's and my city selection will be more limited if no career.

If you look back as far as 1990 and limit the search to players in their first two seasons, Burmi still ranks pretty low, but he is in the same ball park as Manny Malhotra, Shane Doan, Rob Niedermayer, Ryan O’Reilly, Joe Thornton, Petr Nedved and Scott Hartnell. They aren't all bad company.

He shows clear potential and to me the errors seem mental rather than physical. Hopefully he puts it all together.

The problem here is that we don't have a lot of good data to look at. We've only got 1 year of junior - his first in a new league in a new country. We've also got a list of young players most of which had no business being in the NHL. There's not a lot to compare to at the bottom of that list because most of similar talent were playing in lesser leagues at the time. What kind of numbers would they have put up in the NHL?

To be sure, Burmistrov still has potential ahead of him. I just don't think he'll develop into an elite scorer, based on what he's done so far. I have similar thoughts about Magnus Paajarvi, though the latter's shot totals leave me a little more optimistic.

I like shots. Not always. J.Blake in T.O., his first year back after therapy, and Kessel's first T.O. year; they shot when no teammates in rebound position.

Watching the Phx-Blues game now. St Louis got a 3 on 1. They shot. Hottest goalie in league made save. Shot on rebound. 2nd rebound came out and hopped over a D's stick and third shot went in. A lot of teams would either not have a D pinching (was almost a 4 on 2), or would try a fancy passing play.
I've only seen two goalies where shooting doesn't work. Gigiere and his long pads during 2003 Cup run. And lots of Hasek. The only time it doesn't seem to work is if the refs let D maul any FWs going for a rebound. And the refs can look at interference during intermissions to adjust, maybe even a makeup call. Careful though. I watched best Oilers games ever box set and the Marchant game winner followed a game of nothing but telegraphed back and forth PPs. The long playoff game where Primeau tackled Jagr without penalty was a joke.

Ouch. Did LA Kings just get eliminated on that bench interference? What is this, a Cardinal's opening day game? Soccer? I was about to comment Scheifele didn't get a good 1st period shot on prime opportunity but just missed his goal...Scouting Ceci.

...the Barrie Neiburger goalie just got scored on without moving. What Kipper did during the Flames cup run, was he stretched out his blocker and glove to the top corners, and each pad to the bottom corners. With good shot blocking this was very effective way to deal with screen.
A roller hockey game in shoes, I was completely screened and the shooter waited for that to uncork a hard snap shot. I heard the shot. I could tell by the screen it was coming near glove side. I could also tell by the sound it wasn't top corner. I blindly stuck out my baseball glove and left pad and the ball went right in my glove. I didn't even feel it. Thought a goal until I saw everyone's reaction.

Be nice to see Burmistrov play for Russia. They will certainly be ramping up the intensity the next two yrs.
After the lockout I figured Havlat and Gaborik were the best players if they could stay healthy. Gaborik has shifty moves and hard shots. Havlat had a nice AllStar game goal years ago where he seemed to pick up the puck with his blade and throw it ubove a down goalie very slowly, like a slo-mo wrist shot. That was hands. It would be nice to have a player with a skill like that on this team; is such a physical team, that player would have protection. Yzerman got killer one timers after composite sticks and reinvented as a checker. Adaptable players like that are good no matter what CBA. He tried to lose weight to get more speed in late 1980s. Made him injury prone and reversed. That is a certain sort of intelligence a paid scout might be able to pick out; different from leadership or best-on-Earth injury resilience. I think Burmistrov has some leadership, the physical game doesn't faze him. Too bad no Havlat hands or HOF career possible.

Has any other pro athlete returned from an osteotomy? In might be a predictor of other traits. After the first five rounds, give the remainder of the draft class osteotomies. If anyone recovers I bet they make the NHL.
Sorry, the crappy goalie ruined my scouting. I'm gonna go thaw out some groundbeef.

It's okay. There are lots of different careers; a person can wind up having hundreds of employers. Imagine the restaurant naming opportunities. Ceci gave it away on PP. Recovered it with stickwork and size. Might be harder to do that at NHL but good positioning so maybe same effect with a shot-block. Didn't dump it in too hard. Medium dump in work on crappy ice. Better passing of the boards would improve hockey. I wonder if boards should be tested or different boards materials tested in the NHL's R+D summer thingy?