Region not ready for boom in elderly, new study finds

NEWBURGH — The aging baby boomer generation will have a big impact of the health care system of the Hudson Valley, but the region is ill prepared to meet those demands, according to the nonprofit Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.

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By HEMA EASLEY

recordonline.com

By HEMA EASLEY

Posted Jul. 18, 2014 at 2:00 AM

By HEMA EASLEY
Posted Jul. 18, 2014 at 2:00 AM

» Social News

NEWBURGH — The aging baby boomer generation will have a big impact of the health care system of the Hudson Valley, but the region is ill prepared to meet those demands, according to the nonprofit Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.

Its assessment, unveiled Thursday, was reached after an eight-month study that evaluated the region's health care system, including hospitals, nursing facilities, home health care, hospice, availability of doctors and other professions, and opportunities for regional planning. The study looked at the counties of Orange, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Ulster, Sullivan, Dutchess, Greene and Columbia.

It found the number of baby boomers age 80 and older would increase by 54.6 percent by 2040, 12 percentage points more than the state average, and were likely to have higher expectations of the health care system than their predecessors. But hospitals, plagued by low occupancy rates, poorer outcomes than the national average, and financial distress, were less likely to meet the new demands.

Combined with that is a shortage of physicians, especially primary-care doctors, and of an aging medical workforce. The study estimated that nationally, by 2020, retiring doctors would outstrip the number of physicians graduating from medical school, and that trend was likely to be reflected in the Hudson Valley.

The region also lacked an adequate number of home health aides, especially in more rural sections of the Hudson Valley.

"This is a call to arms," said one of the study's authors, Dr. Daniel Z. Aronzon, former chief of Vassar Brothers Medical Center in Poughkeepsie. "There has to be a collective will," to fix the problem.

The 94-page report, titled "Aging in the Hudson Valley: Is the Healthcare System Ready?," was written by Pattern staff under the guidance of Aronzon.