The more things change...: Parity still rules NFL

Published: Sunday, August 25, 2002

Associated Press

The NFL enters the 2002 season with perfect parity.

When New England upset St. Louis in the Super Bowl, it became the third consecutive team to win the NFL title one year after finishing .500 or worse. With the league's new alignment of eight divisions of four teams each, there's no reason to think that won't continue.

Almost every team thinks it has a shot at the playoffs, and several look as if they can continue the theme of mediocre to magnificent, as New England did last season in going from 5-11 to the title. Baltimore did it the previous year after going 8-8, and the Rams went all the way from 4-12 to champions in the 1999 season.

Tennessee, for example, should improve by five or six games on its 7-9 record, returning to the form that produced a 26-6 record the previous two seasons and a Super Bowl trip three seasons ago. They're also talking Super Bowl in Dallas, which has been 5-11 the past two seasons, and even fans in Houston think the expansion Texans are a playoff team.

Houston has had one major effect on the 2002 season: It forced realignment when it became the NFL's 32nd team, a franchise for the city to replace the Oilers, who defected to Tennessee after the 1996 season.

Houston's hope  and the hope of the downtrodden  stems from the salary cap, which took full effect three or four years ago and gives everyone a chance. This year, only a few truly sorry franchises (Detroit and Carolina, to name two) have no chance for at least a playoff run.

That's due to the cycle that forces teams that make a run at the top to shed veterans afterward to stay under the cap. Baltimore has only 16 players left from the team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and the team the Ravens conquered, the New York Giants, have fewer than half.

The cap also leaves almost every team thin, so an injury to a key player can ruin a season. Last year, Denver was one of the AFC favorites, lost wide receiver Ed McCaffrey with a broken leg in the opener, and finished 8-8. No Denver receiver could make up the 80-plus catches McCaffrey would have made.

Under the realignment, it's advisable for a team to win its division, because of the strong possibility of missing the playoffs with a better record than a division winner.

For instance, if the new AFC South had existed last season, Houston, an expansion team getting ready to play, would have won with an 0-0 record. The other three teams, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Jacksonville all were under .500.

This year, it could happen in another division.

The AFC West, for example, is relatively balanced and could be won by an 8-8 or 9-7 team. The move of coach Jon Gruden to Tampa Bay seems to have taken a lot of life out of defending champion Oakland. Denver is OK but nothing special, and San Diego and Kansas City don't seem like contenders.

In the East, on the other hand, three of the four teams are legitimate contenders: defending champion New England, which won it all under QB surprise Tom Brady; the improved New York Jets; and Miami, which has upgraded its offense by acquiring Ricky Williams from New Orleans. One or two might not make the playoffs with a record better than the West winner.

Right now, the league hierarchy has little concern about such inequities.

Commissioner Paul Tagliabue shrugs when asked about the potential problem, and Washington owner Dan Snyder says, "Sure it could happen. But we'll wait to deal with it until it does."

One positive about the eight divisions is they're far more geographically correct. The few anomalies are for reasons of tradition  Dallas remains in the NFC East with archrivals Washington, Philadelphia and the New York Giants. The renamed NFC North is the old "Frostbite Division" of Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota.

But Indianapolis is in the AFC South because there was nowhere else to put it.

Seattle is the only team to change conferences, going from a grouping where they would be a contender (the AFC West) to the NFC West, where they are a distant third best.

 Steve Spurrier, a superstar college coach at Florida, is now in Washington, the fourth coach in Snyder's three seasons as owner. He is trying to implement the offensive system that was so successful with the Gators by using three mediocre quarterbacks, two of whom (Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel) played for him in college.

 More high-profile coaches in new places.

Marty Schottenheimer, fired by Snyder in Washington, is now in San Diego, where he's already benched Doug Flutie for Drew Brees.

Tony Dungy, let go by the Glazer family in Tampa Bay, is now in Indianapolis, and Gruden is in Tampa. Gruden was obtained in a trade with the Raiders when the Glazers found themselves adrift after firing Dungy and being spurned by Bill Parcells. Before Oakland allowed Gruden to go, it went after San Francisco's Steve Mariucci.

 Four new stadiums. The Patriots celebrate their Super Bowl victory in new Gillette Stadium at the site of their old home. Detroit is playing downtown in Ford Field, about 40 miles from the Silverdome. Houston's new Reliant Stadium, with its retractable roof, the first of its kind in the NFL, is next to the Oilers' old home in the Astrodome. The Seahawks, after two seasons at the University of Washington, move into their 67,000-seat stadium where the Kingdome once stood.

 A different kind of start. For the first time, the NFL will open on a Thursday night, when the 49ers visit the Giants on Sept. 5. The game will be preceded by a celebration in Times Square, and followed on opening weekend by tributes to the victims and survivors of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

This also seems to be a good year for rookies.

Quarterback David Carr of Houston, the first pick overall, will be an instant starter for the Texans. Tight end Jeremy Shockey of the Giants has shown huge potential and could open up what has been a staid offense.

Others to watch include safety Roy Williams of Dallas, huge offensive tackle Mike Williams of Buffalo, and running back Clinton Portis of Denver, who takes over for Terrell Davis. The Broncos' star announced his retirement last week.

Pittsburgh's latest "slash" is former Indiana quarterback Antwaan Randle El, who will be a wide receiver, kick returner and running back.

One other youngster to watch is Michael Vick, the top overall pick in the 2001 draft, who will start for Atlanta. Vick is still a little unsure as a passer, but he'll be a headache for every opponent if conservative coach Dan Reeves allows him to use his unsurpassed speed and running ability out of the pocket.

If for some strange reason form holds, St. Louis is the favorite to win the Super Bowl with its perennial league-leading offense featuring Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk. It's the third straight season the Rams go in as the favorite.

But they will be challenged in the NFC West by the 49ers, who have come back quickly after two down years caused by salary cap problems. The other NFC favorites are Philadelphia in the East, Tampa Bay in the South, Green Bay and Chicago in the North.

In the AFC, look to the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins in the East; Pittsburgh in the North; resurgent Tennessee and Indianapolis in the South; and Denver and Oakland in the West.