The numbers confirm what your eyes are telling you: Most people driving on New Jersey’s highways aren’t obeying the speed limit.

On a stretch of Route 287 northbound in Morris County, for example, only 23 percent of drivers on average stayed under the speed limit on any tested weekday in 2017. On a portion of Route 18 in Monmouth County, only 18 percent were not speeding. And on Route 322 in Gloucester County, 7 percent followed the law.

That's according to monthly speed data collected on roadways across the state by the New Jersey Department of Transportation.

So what's the cause of this widespread law-breaking? According to one Republican lawmaker, it's the speed limits themselves.

O’Scanlon is behind a new effort to radically rethink how speed limits are set on New Jersey's highways. He says he wants to take politics out of the equation and let the limits reflect how fast most people are already driving.

“We are not discussing changing people’s speeds,” he said in an interview. “We are talking about changing signs on the side of the roadway.”

That approach is endorsed by many traffic engineers as a way to minimize accidents by smoothing out traffic flow — a major factor in preventing crashes — and to help law enforcement separate flagrant violators from the majority of drivers. It also builds public trust in the credibility of all traffic signs and laws.

But it is bitterly opposed by some, including the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, a nonprofit funded by auto insurers, which argues that it's a recipe for faster driving and more dangerous roads.

“Speed is a factor in almost a quarter of crash deaths,” institute spokesman Russ Rader said in an email. “The best way to make highways safer is to slow drivers down by aggressively enforcing existing speed limits.”

Those limits in New Jersey top out at 65 mph, which is in line with most Northeastern states but slower than 41 other states, including Pennsylvania, with roads at 70 mph or higher, according to the institute.

Six Western states have top posted speed limits of 80 mph, while Texas has some stretches at 85 mph.

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Jared Zoneraich, 17, of Wyckoff, said he was inside his home when he saw his grandmother's car fly into the backyard and crash into the pool, September 2014. Zoneraich was joined by his father and people near by, who jumped into the deep end of the pool to push the floating Audi into the shallow end so that his grandmother and her friend could climb out of the window. No injuries were reported. City Wide Towing removed the car. Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

According to Fort Lee Fire Chief Jeff Silver the driver of the sedan was an elderly man who was taken to Englewood Hospital for observation after driving his car into the swimming pool at the Biarritz, an apartment building. The car was never fully submurged into the pool and the driver was able to have air after the accident. (August 2011) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A man driving his car tried to park at the YMCA on the first day of summer camp when he claimed to police that his brakes failed to work, according to Wyckoff Police Lt. Joseph Soto in Wyckoff on Monday June 25, 2018. Three to four vehicles were damaged after the car drove up the hill and across other cars in the parking lot. The driver was being evaluated by EMTs at the scene. No injuries were reported. Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A three car accident sent one person to the hospital with minor injuries Tuesday morning on Route 17 northbound over Central Ave. a two of the vehicles involved caught fire. Rochelle Park Fire Department responded to the call to put out the blaze. Route 17 in Rochelle Park was shut down in both directions while emergency personnel worked the fire. All lanes are now open. (March 2012) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

According to Allendale Asst. Fire Chief, Ryan Shute, a vehicle struck a utility pole March 2012, and brought it down over the car on De Mercurio Dr. Emergency personnel could not remove the patients from the car until the power was cut to the pole by Orange & Rockland Utilities. Allendale stretched a precautionary line to the scene and assisted EMS to remove the patients. Some businesses in the area are without power at the moment. The driver and passenger were taken to the hospital after the accident which deployed the airbags of the Acura sedan. Firemen are disconnecting the car battery as a safety precaution. Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A car rolled backwards into a home on Mountain Ave in the Township of Washington Monday afternoon February 20, 2017. According to Pete Insetta, Deputy Fire Chief, the driver of the vehicle was not injured in the accident. Paramus Rescue is on scene to assist with shoring up the house and the Building Department will make the determination is the house is structurally sound. The car went through the front window area of the house. Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

The driver and passenger were not injured after their car came down a steep hill on Cecelia Place and went across the front lawn and dropped down a retaining wall of a home on Cecelia Avenue Cliffside Park AMonday, Septemeber 12, 2016 afternoon, according to Cliffside Park Police Chief Richard Gaito. The house was not damaged in the accident, but patio furniture, a BBQ and the retaining wall suffered some damage. Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

The two drivers were transported to the hospital with unknown injuries after a minivan and a Teaneck DPW tractor mower collided in the intersection of Windsor Rd and Sagamore Ave according to Teaneck Police at the scene. The tractor mower overturned in the accident. (June 2016) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

According to Ridgewood Police Chief John Ward, a pick up truck driven by a 60 year old man was seen weaving southbound on Route 17 when it hit the center median then crossed three lanes of traffic to strike a utility pole and come to a stop when it hit the building. The driver was taken to the Valley Hospital. Chief Ward said the driver seemed to have been in a diabetic emergency at the time of the accident. A total of two utility poles are down at this time and the right lane of traffic is closed while emergency personnel clear the scene, expect traffic delays southbound. Businesses along Route 17 at the site of the accident are without power. (June 2011) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A three car accident at the George Washington Bridge toll plaza for the lower level sent several people to the hospital with injuries. Half of the toll booths to the lower level in Fort Lee were closed as emergency personnel removed the victims and the vehicles from the area. (July 2011) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

According to New Milford Police Officer Scott Petrie, New Milford High School student was driving his Mustang with two juvenile passengers was on his way to pick up a third, when struck and rolled his car up a guide wire on Trensch Dr Friday morning. According to a witness, the two passengers ran away after the accident. The driver was issued a summons for being a probationary driver with too many underage passengers. The New Milford Fire Department was called to contain a fuel spill. Boulevard was closed between Grand St and Webster Dr while emergency personnel cleared the scene. No injuries were reported. (September 2012) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

Lou Porta, the Wyckoff home owner, said he called the tree service company to take down two damaged trees from his backyard on Ivy Lane, when the crane tipped over Friday morning. Mike Rose, Wyckoff Fire Chief, said the crane was parked in the driveway and the crane operator was in the cab extending the boom when the accident occurred. The crane operator was not injured. The boom fell into the covered pool bending the boom and damaging rim of the pool. The fire department stabilized the the crane with two tow trucks and will use another crane to control the descent of the tipped over truck. The boom will also have to be cut, since it was bent in the accident. (November 2011) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A school bus struck the side of a home on Ford Road, ripping the gas main to the house causing minor damage according to Haledon Fire Chief Chris Bakker. A PSE&G gas technician looks at the gas main to the house, as the driver of the bus and owner of the house walks past the debris field from the accident. The driver said that he was parked in the driveway and was not sure what happened next, but the car went forward striking the house. He was not injured and there were no passengers on the bus. (April 2016) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A NJ Transit bus slid down 4 Ave and struck a fire hydrant before slamming backwards into a warehouse at E 26th St Friday morning in Paterson. According to Malik Dixon, who lives across the street from the accident, he heard a loud boom then heard the female driver screaming hysterically. Dixon ran out and tried to comfort the driver, who was the only person on the 704 bus line and called 911. Dixon said the driver was taken out of the bus on a stretcher and transported away in an ambulance. (January 2014) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

A three car accident, which one of them overturned, shutdown Fletcher Ave in Fort Lee northbound in the area of Bridge Plaza North. There did not appear to be any injuries, two of the vehicles were able to drive away from the scene with minor front end damage and the third vehicle, which overturned, was towed away. (February 2016) Tariq Zehawi/NorthJersey.com

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Changing the law

Legislation O’Scanlon announced last month would require the state to measure how fast people are traveling on its “limited access highways” — the New Jersey Turnpike, Garden State Parkway, Route 80 and other roadways with on-ramps and no cross streets — and then adjust speed limits to the so-called 85th percentile speed, or the speed at or below which 85 percent of free-flowing traffic moves. Limits could be reduced for segments with high accident rates.

In the cases mentioned above, that would mean bumping the speed limits up from 65 mph to 80 mph on Routes 287 and 18, and from 55 mph to 75 mph on Route 322, based on the DOT data.

Fines for speeding on any stretch of road where a study hasn’t been completed would be capped at $20 with no insurance points, according to a draft of the bill shared with The Record and NorthJersey.com, although penalties for driving under the influence, using a cellphone and other infractions would remain in place.

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Steve Schapiro, a DOT spokesman, said the department currently sets speed limits based on Federal Highway Safety Administration guidelines, with maximum statewide limits for various road types established by the Legislature.

Schapiro declined to comment on O'Scanlon's legislation. However, he said the department can authorize engineering studies to explore altering limits based on the speed of free-flowing traffic, crash data, roadway geometry and other factors.

85th percentile speed

There's no consensus on the best way to set speed limits, but many traffic engineers use the 85th percentile speed as a guide for setting limits at a level that leads to the least variability between driving speeds and therefore fewer crashes.

That's the approach backed by O'Scanlon and other organizations in his corner, such as the New Jersey chapter of the National Motorists Association, a driver advocacy group.

The 85th percentile speed reflects people’s perception of what is a comfortable driving speed, and limits set accordingly help bring people’s speeds closer together, explained Steve Carrellas, a licensed professional engineer and the association's director of government and public affairs.

Under such a system, for example, there would be fewer drivers dutifully following an artificially low speed limit, forcing other cars to make risky lane changes to get around them, he said. Realistic limits also bolster the credibility of all traffic rules and allow police to focus their efforts on the worst offenders, he argued.

Here’s the other crucial point, according to O’Scanlon: Raising or lowering the speed limit has little effect on how fast people actually drive, just on how many people are breaking the law.

He points to a 2001 study by the state DOT, which looked at the state’s decision in 1997 to raise the 55 mph speed limit to 65 mph on certain highways. It found the change had a “relatively minor impact on actual travel speeds” — less than 2 mph on most stretches, and less than 4 mph on the turnpike and parkway — while the rate of fatal accidents remained comparable to that on 55 mph roads.

A separate 1997 study by the Federal Highway Administration of speed limit changes on non-limited access highways in 22 states concluded they resulted in differences in driving speeds “not sufficiently large to be of practical significance.”

But the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety rejects those arguments, asserting that the 85th percentile speed is not a stationary point but rather a moving target that increases over time as speed limits are raised.

In a lengthy Q&A on its website, the institute also cites a 2009 study examining the long-term effects of the 1995 repeal of federal speed limit controls, which resulted in many states, including New Jersey, raising their limits. That study found a 3 percent increase in road fatalities attributable to higher speed limits on all road types, with the highest increase of 9 percent on rural interstates.

Although the rate of fatalities per 100 million miles traveled has declined nearly every year since the 1995 repeal, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration figures, the institute claims they would have been lower if not for states' decisions to raise speed limits.

New Jersey tried red-light cameras once, starting in 2009, but the program ended five years later after a public backlash. O’Scanlon, then in the Assembly, was one of its loudest critics.

Legacy of 1973 oil crisis

New Jersey’s approach to setting speed limits is in some ways a legacy of the 1973 oil crisis, when members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed an oil embargo against the U.S. for supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

Congress set a national maximum speed limit of 55 mph the following year as a fuel-saving measure. That law was modified in 1987 to allow 65 mph speeds on some limit-access rural highways but not fully repealed until 1995, when the authority to set limits returned to the states.

The New Jersey Legislature voted in 1997 to raise the speed limit on some highways to 65 mph and conduct a study of the results. But due to the perception that the status quo has been working, a lack of political will or other factors, the state has not revisited the issue much since.

It’s not clear anything will change now. To become law, O’Scanlon’s proposal will need the support of the Democrats who control the Legislature and the administration of Gov. Phil Murphy, also a Democrat.

Murphy spokesman Dan Bryan said Monday that the governor and DOT are "committed to ensuring safety for drivers and passengers on New Jersey’s roads" but declined to weigh in on the legislation.

A spokesman for Sen. President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester, and the New Jersey State Police, which enforces the speed limit on many major highways, declined to comment last week. A spokeswoman for Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, D-Middlesex, did not respond to a request for comment, while a spokesman for the New Jersey Turnpike Authority said the agency has not taken a position on the issue.

O’Scanlon plans to press ahead.

“I hold out hope that the New Jersey Legislature and the executive will give a damn and be driven by reality,” he said. “I’m optimistic that we can get this done.”

Email: pugliese@northjersey.com

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