Ontario poll suggests province isn’t election-ready

Ontario’s provincial parties may want to tone down their election rhetoric after a new poll suggests the opposition has little to gain from a trip to the ballot box.

The EKOS poll, conducted the week of April 3-10 and released to iPolitics, shows the Progressive Conservatives in the lead with 31.7 per cent. The Liberals are at 30.8 per cent and the NDP have 25.5 per cent.

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“I think the poll is more of a lets-give-these-guys-a-chance. It’s not like they have a huge mandate in terms of public opinion, but they’ve got kind of some conditional patience from the electorate, who I don’t think are really agitating to get back to the polls anytime soon,” Ekos pollster Frank Graves said.

PC leader Tim Hudak has already announced his team won’t support the 2013 provincial budget and is ready to go to the polls. But the party’s lead is still four points below what it captured in the 2011 election, and about 10 points behind where it was polling ahead of that election.

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“It’s kind of odd for him to want to go right now,” Graves said. “He may feel like he’s not going to get a lot of other chances, and at some point he’s got to redeem himself or his career as leader’s going to be pretty well finito.”

The numbers shift when Ekos narrowed the sample to likely voters, basing that on whether or not the person voted in the 2011 federal election. In that model, the PCs rise to 38.2 per cent, the NDP come in second with 27.2 per cent and the Liberals follow very closely with 26.9 per cent, putting the two parties within the margin of error.

These numbers suggest it is not an optimal time for NDP leader Andrea Horwath to hit the hustings either.

“I don’t want to put myself in the mind of Horwath and her advisors, but it’s a situation where there’s no obvious upside for them to go right now,” Graves said.

Regionally, the provincial map is still coloured the same way as it was in 2011 -—the NDP is doing better in the north than the other parties, while the Liberals dominate Toronto and the PCs are strongest in the GTA and eastern Ontario.

Graves noted that while Hudak is holding onto the traditional conservative base — he’s doing well with men and among the college and high school educated — he has failed to make inroads with immigrant communities, a demographic that significantly helped the federal Conservatives form government.

The poll also suggests Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals haven’t benefited from any of the Justinmania at the federal level. But their support is still up from where it was after Dalton McGuinty’s departure. Wynne’s more conciliatory tone seems to be keeping her support base stable.

Wildcard

The Green Party, which had 9.7 per cent overall support, is the “wildcard,” according to Graves. In the past, Green supporters tended to mark their ballots for McGuinty and his green energy policies. But that may not happen this time around.

“I’m not sure if Premier Wynne has been as clear in commitment to that area,” Graves said. “She’s chosen some other priorities so far to stress. So that may mean that that will no longer be the case, and maybe the NDP will be an attractive alternative, or maybe they’ll stay home.”

Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa is expected to table his provincial budget by the end of April. The Liberals have been holding public consultations across Ontario, and Horwath has personally outlined her demands to the party as well.

“I think the next key check-up point would be post-budget, and that will really be quite interesting,” Graves said. “I imagine that the parties will look at the polling numbers … and make a call as to whether or not there’s any real prospect for breaking things up with a new election.”

The best the Liberals can reasonably hope for is the NDP’s support implementing the 2013 budget, and perhaps one more year as a minority government before hitting the campaign trail.