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Monday, March 3

Written By: Scott HetskoCanadian high pressure will build Southeast overnight which should clear out the sky for most outside of 2-3 miles of Lake Ontario. Net radiational cooling will result in yet another night spent below zero for Western New York. Temperatures will range from about 5 above lake side to almost -10 in some of the normally colder spots in Ontario, Livingston and Yates counties by morning.The Arctic grip will relax after Tuesday. A series of weak upper air lows will produce meager light snows at times this week. On Sunday, a storm will eject out of the Mississippi valley and may come close enough to produce a plowable snow fall Sunday and Sunday night. As we were reminded of again today, you can't predict storm tracks outside of 2-3 days so we'll worry about that guy on Thursday.Bundle up and thank you all for continuing to write on our blog!

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55 comments:

You expect us to wait until Thursday to think about a potential snow event? Please...

In all seriousness though I agree, way too early to say if it'll be a hit or a whiff. I bet you're super glad you didn't have to deal with that pain-in-the-rear frontal storm. That thing threw almost everyone for a loop with its late game southward jump. Forecasted snowfall went down as well, before the shift it looked like a lot of places were going to get over a foot. Can't find a single report even remotely close to a foot anywhere today, highest I've seen is 8.3 inches.

The great Snowdog is looking better and better with his under 100 inches prediction. It was quite a call weeks ago. There is no storm showing now this weekend. John said this morning another arctic shot midweek next week which means no storms with the extreme cold. Thus the door is quickly shutting for any chances at significant snow. Way to go Dog hats off to you.

This is the total snowfall from last night's 00z GGEM, given in liquid equivalent (millimeters):http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/SN_000-240_0000.gif

As you can see it paints an average of 25mm regionwide. That's 2.5cm, or a little over an inch, which would likely yield at least 10 inches of snow. The overwhelming majority of it comes from a storm it depicts for early next week:http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gifhttp://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gifhttp://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gifhttp://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif

With any arctic shot there is always the chance for lake effect anywhere north of the Thruway, so while next week's arctic intrusion may not bring storms it may still keep things snowy. But please do continue your trolling ways as it enhances the pleasure I attain from making these posts.

Heard that 90% of the Great Lakes are frozen, and that it will take 2-3 months for the ice to thaw, which if correct will bring us to May/June before we begin to see warmer weather. C-Quad -- what are your thoughts and long range predictions on when we can begin to see an up swing in the temps.

Average temperatures are on the rise, so it follows naturally that daily readings will slowly increase in general over time. They simply have to, we're entering spring after all. We will see at least comfortably cool temps at some point, very likely long before May arrives. That said, much of the rest of March looks to remain colder than normal owing to the incredible persistence of the current western trough/eastern ridge arrangement which shows no sign of abating. The Euro weekly continues to indicate that such a general arrangement will be locked in place for several more weeks. That's not to say that it won't warm up for a day or two at a time on occasion, but it will be cold more often and for longer stretches than it will be mild. The ice coverage on Lake Erie could make it difficult to fully break into spring unless we get a major pattern flip after this month, in which case the ice would melt faster. Regardless, any truly drastic cooling influence should remain south and west of our region closer to that lake, but we will likely not escape the cooling influence entirely.

The latest date there has ever been a 32 degree reading on Lake Erie is May 23rd, so I strongly doubt it will take until June for the ice to melt. I suspect that 2-3 month prediction is more for the upper Lakes, but I could be mistaken.

It's entirely possible that the system for Sunday didn't actually go away, but instead was simply pushed back to Wednesday/Thursday. The NWS did make mention of the Euro having a slower look overall, with the GFS being more progressive. At the time of that discussion the Euro had a system for that Wednesday/Thursday time frame, while the GFS had one more towards the weekend. Perhaps the GFS simply moved towards the Euro and delayed the system as a result. The GFS has depicted the elements for such a system, but they remain a disorganized and wholly unphased mess while the Euro and GGEM have more organized systems. All sorts of possible outcomes to run ourselves ragged about.

It's a bold prediction because there is no way to tell if we will or will not see any big storms before winter is over. It's a lot like calling the results of a coin flip while the coin is still in the air. Besides, there is some model support for a storm next week, so the odds are already slightly against the "no more storms" idea.

If the 00z GGEM was eye candy then the 12z GGEM was eye pornography. Even bigger storm than the 00z run with slightly later timing, tracks up the Ohio River to the Catskills while bombing to 983 mb. I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare, but still an interesting depiction nonetheless and continues the general notion of an eastern storm for next week. For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.

Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess. Still waiting on the Euro. Let the model wars commence yet again...

There you go again CCCC the GGEM how reliable has that model been? I will tell you NOT! Come stop trying to get the Snowdog and the bloggers excited. I will make that bold prediction again NO MORE STORMS! Plus I will put ma name to it.

"I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare...""I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare...""I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare...""I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare...""I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare...""I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare...""I seriously doubt we are going to see a bombing 983 mb storm over the Catskills as such a thing is exceedingly rare..."

"For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.""For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.""For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.""For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.""For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.""For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time.""For now, this specific scenario as depicted by the GGEM exists strictly in fantasy land, as do all others at this time."

"Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess.""Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess.""Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess.""Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess.""Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess.""Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess.""Meanwhile in GFS land, the same storm is still just a disorganized mess."

Ha ha I do know how to read and comprehend. I comprehend that you throw these possibilities out then when they come to fruition you are the lovely of the blog. The great CCCC he predicted it first. He was ahead of all! When they do not come to fruition you say as I said it "I seriously doubt it or it was just based on information" Ha ha. However, I will give you this the great KW was saying something midweek next week is something to keep an eye on. Scott was more saying to keep an eye on Sunday however looks east.

You should change your name to "Greatness" just because it seems to fit the trend :P

"I comprehend that you throw these possibilities out then when they come to fruition you are the lovely of the blog. The great CCCC he predicted it first. He was ahead of all!"

I think that's just a matter of people remembering that I threw the first dart by mentioning a model run or two. Otherwise I can recall being wrong several times with very few people ever mentioning it. Oh well, no pressure on me, I have nothing riding on being accurate. I would obviously like to be, but it's NBD if I'm not. Scottie on the other hand...

"I will give you this the great KW was saying something midweek next week is something to keep an eye on."

You know this is the type of winter that is going to end with a giant dumping of snow. It's just the way it works when most people ( outside of this blog ) are sick of winter.. a big, crippling 2 day snowstorm to end winter. I know it, you know it, we all know it will happen.

I will refrain from referring to the Euro and GGEM depictions as "agreement" until they start showing this kind of solution consistently. Especially since they are combining to give me a ferocious case of eyeball diabetes. All of my blabbering about storm possibilities today may create a bit of hype here at the News 8 Weather Blog. I assure all bloggers and lurkers that this blabbering is due strictly to a combination of free time, copious amounts of caffeine and a steadily worsening case of Storm Withdrawal™. The volume of statements I make regarding this possibility is not proportional in any way to its viability. We have seen storm threats fade away as little as 3 days in advance, at the 9 day range it may as well be a cloud of pixie dust in a sea of dreams.

NO!!!!! Please come back CCCC we want updates every run and I am serious! We need to track one far that WILL finally come through with the BIG one because there will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 9 days. mark it down!!

Although the Euro and GEM have been bi-polar this winter, nailing storms one week, then absolutely crapping the bed the next, the GEM has been very consistent with handling this LP. It was catching on to this idea 3 days ago before the GFS jumped halfway on board. I'm interested to see how the GFS trends the next few days...

My preliminary guess is that it bounces around between various solutions, showing nothing of interest before eventually coming around to something more consolidated. The fact that two foreign models show a consolidated storm system, and the fact that both have been rather consistent with the idea per your implication, combine to grant the edge to the phased storm idea from the foreign models. If the next few run cycles continue these trends, and especially if the UKMET shows signs of jumping on board, then we can pretty much conclude from there how future runs will unfold. In that event it will go like this: the GFS will persist with the non-event depiction for several runs while the foreigns develop a consensus on storm track, then 120 hours out the GFS will finally join the party only to over-correct like crazy until the day the storm hits.

Seems as though all of the little shortwaves that were projected before, such as the Sunday system, have been shoveled down to this time period and used to spawn the beast seen on the foreign models. That's just how it looks to me at a glance however.

One more piece favoring the phased storm: some semblance of North Atlantic blocking is projected to develop by early next week. This does not mesh well with the progressive separate stream idea. Regardless, we're still dealing with something 9 days away, and split flow situations are always tricky. I grant only a slight edge to the foreign models at the moment, but if current trends continue that edge will become substantially less slight.

CCCC your boy KW hints at something big but moved back a day to next Wed/Thursday. Rochester's most accurate sees nothing for at least a week. I think nothing and like my odds better plus I have RMA on my side.

One week takes us to the end of next Tuesday. Wednesday is outside the scope of the 7 day forecast, and we all know Scott would never go outside those bounds unless he caught a particularly strong whiff of something brewing. As of now it is only a faint whiff.

I'm not a KW fan. He's a half decent forecaster but is one of the more hard-lining global warming deniers out there. Always tries to spin cold related events to suit his viewpoints and flat out rejects any evidence pointing to AGW. In this regard, he has become far too politicized and chooses to ignore sound science in favor of his views.

Here we go. That's twice now with the denier card. I thought this was a weather forum. I wish people would keep their climate change views on a blog that deals with it. KW a half way decent forecaster? Look at his creds sometime. I think every forecaster on all 3 channels do a fine job and deserve respect.

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/british/half-decent"quite good or skilled"

So yes, half decent. And he denies the immense likelihood that global warming is happening, that makes him a denier. Climate change relates directly to weather, therefore it is something that can be discussed here. Don Paul allows climate change talk on his blog, why can't it be allowed here?

Sorry, but climate change is something over a long period of time. The weather on this blog, basically talks about weather a week or so out. I disagree on your assessment of KW's creds. You aren't checking close enough. I didn't know this blog was set up to criticize other forecasters either. What his beliefs are have nothing to do with this blog, or even his meteorological skills. This is not Don Paul's site. I don't think Scott would appreciate criticism of other local meteorologists on his blog.

"I disagree on your assessment of KW's creds."What assessment did I give other than saying he's a good forecaster? Apparently we can at least agree on that. I see no problem here.

"I didn't know this blog was set up to criticize other forecasters either. What his beliefs are have nothing to do with this blog..."It was relevant in the moment.

"...or even his meteorological skills."Never tied the two together.

"I don't think Scott would appreciate criticism of other local meteorologists on his blog."I'm sure he appreciates the principles of the First Amendment though.

"Sorry, but climate change is something over a long period of time. The weather on this blog, basically talks about weather a week or so out."Stop talking like weather and climate change aren't related. If the topic ever comes up in passing then I see no problem discussing it. If it's the political elements of climate change you're referring to then yes, we should steer clear of discussing those. Completely agree there. This stuff isn't even discussed very often here anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up below 100" at all. This has been a cold winter, dominated by arctic Highs blasting in from the north and west. These patterns are not good snow makers. In colder decades, such as the 50s, our annual snowfall was significantly lower but duration of snowpack longer. Ironically, our "warmer" winters generate more snow than cold ones like this one (warmth, relatively speaking)

It really all depends on where the core of the cold air decides to hang out and/or how it arrives. Having it centered over eastern Canada like it is, and has been a lot of this season, is not conducive for snowfall here. Too much subsidence i.e. sinking air. If it finds itself over the western Lakes instead then we can have well below normal temps and well above normal snowfall simultaneously, because there will be much less subsidence. Or if it's being pulled down by a departing cyclone then we can land ourselves some hefty lake effect if it departs slowly enough, owing to the cyclone infusing the cold air with moisture. "Warmer" winters can only generate more snowfall if we get lucky regarding timing and placement of large scale features during the infrequent stretches that have colder air. By and large, however, they produce less snowfall than colder ones.

CCCC you said KW was a half decent weather forecaster, not good, not even plain decent. By creds, I mean look at his resume, and not just as a local forecaster.

It was relevant to criticize KW and his beliefs on this blog?

Of course Scott, myself and I'm sure everyone else on this blog appreciates the principles of the First Amendment. I just don't think he would appreciate people criticizing other local Meteorologists on his blog.

We can go round and round on climate change and weather, and frankly both sides misuse them when they try and make a point when either one suits their belief.

Finally, I totally respect your amazing knowledge of weather. For the most part I sit back and admire you and others on this blog. Please don't take this personal.

Well rest assured this isn't a place where global warming is discussed very often. It cropped up by chance only a few times recently. It very likely won't happen again any time soon. When I said "half decent" I truly did mean "good," guess that was just a semantics thing and I probably should've just used better wording. And earlier I was just trying to make a point that KW isn't "my boy" as it was put rather crassly by someone else. Nothing has been taken personally. Thanks for the compliment on my "amazing knowledge of weather," and please don't allow my crotchety ranting and raving to deter you from posting :)

Back to weather...Bernie Rayno likes the big storm idea for next week. Although I must say he hasn't been quite in his element lately.

Way sooner than expected, the GFS comes in with a strong consolidated storm system around the time frame of interest. Its location is far from ideal, but that's a relatively unimportant detail right now. What matters is that all major global models capable of going out to that range now have the storm.

My opinion is that it will be another miss South and East. That has been the way things have gone this year for the most part. It has been at least a month since we had our last significant event. I did not realize that we are 20" below Buffalo and Syracuse this year.

The Euro has been rather consistent for several runs in a row, and has a major snowstorm in our region. The GFS has been bouncing around like crazy but does at least show a storm. The GGEM did have some consistency before, but that went out the window with the 00z run and it now has more of a flat system. Still lots of time to sort this out. As with pretty much every storm this season, suppression could become an issue, but based on the strength of the incoming arctic high it shouldn't be as problematic as it was early this week. I will not favor any particular track as this is still more than a week out, but the Euro has been the most consistent relative to the other global models. With that, I am going to place the most stock into how it trends for the near future unless it experiences any big jumps. As of now, no clear trend is evident.

well stated CCCC, please continue with what you do on this blog. Dont let the haters and negative nancy's deter you. I think most can agree with me when I say you have been the rock that has held this blog together most of this winter. We obviously can't rely on any posts from news 8, so your insight has been very nice to ready on a daily basis. I also enjoy your responses to those who try to pick apart your posts. keep it up. thank you.

The GFS updates frame-by-frame on instantweathermaps.com starting around 10:45 am/pm for the runs that actually matter i.e. 00z and 12z. The GGEM updates on meteocentre.com shortly after 12 pm/am for surface pressure, and at later times for other data. And yes, the GGEM is the global Canadian model. The RGEM is basically a high resolution version of the same model, which I mention because I will almost certainly be referencing it at some point in the future.

As of its 12z run, the GFS still can't decide what it wants to do with next week's storm. More skipping around between various ideas, but the pieces are still there. Our very brief general consensus from last night has clearly gone down the drain.

After a one-run blip last night, the GGEM is back on board with the strong storm idea. Sub 1000mb low tracking up to SW PA before transferring to the Mid Atlantic coast and tracking to just SE of Cape Cod as a large 990mb nor'easter. Precip map isn't available yet, but the lion's share of NYS looks to do quite well on this run. Timing would be late Wednesday into Thursday. As with all model depictions at this range, and given the amount of spread still remaining, it is just another possible outcome out of many.