BRIDGE TO INDIA is the leading boutique consultancy and knowledge provider in the Indian cleantech market. We work with leading Indian and international companies, governments and institutions. Through our different activities, we have a unique vantage point on the market dynamics, combining the comprehensive, constantly updated 360 degree view of our market intelligence, the in-depth analysis of our consulting efforts and the on-ground understanding from transaction advisories. Our goal is to enable innovative cleantech solutions in India.

The Indian solar market is growing at a breathtaking speed: This year alone, by more than 300%, next year perhaps by 150%. Competition is as intense as the market is enthusiastic. Is this a recipe for an investment bubble? Projects are being won at record low tariffs – tariffs that many observers doubt will leave investors with acceptable returns. Will these projects be “stranded solar assets”? Is there a bubble in the making? Richard Martin has recently asked this question in the MIT Technology Review (refer). My answer is a clear “no”. Here is why.

Some investors will be disappointed with returns as competition remains stiff

Power demand in India is high and growing – it is a solid business opportunity

In future, as financial engineering becomes more complex, there might be more room for speculation

Recently, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) released a draft of the “National Renewable Energy Act” (refer). Along with the proposed amendments to the Electricity Act 2003 and the National Tariff Policy 2005 (refer), this act will create structural policy changes to help increase the share of renewables in India’s energy mix. In the first section, the document describes in detail how institutional structures would be created. However, it is the subsequent sections that have caught our attention. This is our take:

In the early 20th century, when cars started to compete with horse-drawn carriages in Europe, they still had innumerable technical teething issues and no distribution channels. Germany’s last emperor William II famously said (possibly while sitting on a horse): “I believe in horses, automobiles are a passing phenomenon.” Well, you know which side of history he was on. Cars, of course, did not only complement horse-drawn carriages, they replaced them. I would argue that we will see something similar in our energy future, where renewables will not only complement, but replace fossil fuels.

Most energy projection see a gradual shift in the energy mix

However, as the cost of renewables continues to fall quickly, the shift may be much more radical and abrupt

Investor may preempt this development and move the shift forwards even more

Last week, 300 MW of solar capacity was auctioned in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh (MP). The record low tariffs surprised most observers. Canadian developer Sky Power offered to sell solar power at INR 5.05/kWh (50 MW capacity). The bids closed at INR 5.64/kWh with the median tariff at INR 5.34/kWh. The auction received a lot of interest and over 2,200 MW of projects were offered at tariffs below INR 6/kWh.

Solar tariffs in India are falling dramatically

At these tariffs, effectively, there should be no need for incentives anymore

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