Tropical Storm FRANKLIN (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005
FRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING. A
NEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING
AROUND EACH OTHER. THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE
MOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN
THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY
CENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY
BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ERRATIC AND UNCERTAIN 090/7. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...THE STEERING IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PASSING NORTH OF
FRANKLIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HR...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF THE
STORM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND FALL TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH. THIS SUGGESTS FRANKLIN SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE BAM
MODELS...IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE CYCLOIDAL MOTION OF THE CENTER
INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER DUE TO MERGER WITH THE SECONDARY
VORTICITY CENTER OR TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THUS...THE ERRATIC
MOTION SEEN FOR THE LAST 24-30 HR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...STARTING
WITH THE CENTER TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SECONDARY CENTER MOVES TO ITS WEST.
A CONVECTIVE BURST IS NEAR THE PRIMARY CENTER RIGHT NOW...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED NEAR
FRANKLIN. THIS MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY PROTECTION FROM THE SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO GET PUSHED AWAY
FROM THE STORM BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SEEN APPROACHING FRANKLIN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
GFS FORECASTS A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 48
HR...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A NEW UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
FORMING NEAR THE STORM. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A LESS HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...BUT EVEN THEY TAKE 48 HR OR MORE TO SHOW CONDITIONS
THAT MIGHT ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUAL DECAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
CONVECTIVE BURSTS COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
FRANKLIN HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 30.7N 68.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 31.3N 67.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 32.0N 67.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 67.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 67.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 36.5N 65.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 30/0000Z 40.5N 60.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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