Tropical Storm LANE

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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING BANDING NOTED TO THE WEST. BASED
ON THIS TREND AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
UW CIMSS ADT...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.
LANE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS
EVIDENCED BY THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO PRODUCING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
A WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 46% PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS RATE GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEARED APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE INTENSITY
IS PROBLEMATIC. SHOULD LANE TRACK OVER OR WEST OF BAJA...COOLER
WATERS AND LAND INTERACTION WOULD FAVOR WEAKENING. IF LANE TAKES A
MORE EASTWARD MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD POTENTIALLY BE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/9...AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LANE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING LANE TO TURN INCREASINGLY
NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REQUIRING A LARGER THAN NORMAL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST INDICATES AN
INCREASED THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL
DURING HURRICANE JOHN...IS THE EASTERNMOST DYNAMICAL MODEL AND IS
SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS
OFTEN STRUGGLE IN SITUATIONS WHERE CYCLONES ARE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE TRACK BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. IF LANE MAINTAINS VERTICAL DEPTH...IT COULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW. A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO CONTINUE
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A NORTHWARD
MOTION...ALBEIT IT VERY SLOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.9N 102.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 107.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA
120HR VT 19/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 60 KT...INLAND
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FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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