New Listing: 28-240 G&M Road, South Kamloops, BC $147,000. This two bedroom home in Leonard Estates has a great sized yard, plenty of parking and is centrally located just a few minutes from all downtown amenities!

Bright open concept layout with laundry off the kitchen. The addition offers a great bonus space for craft room, home office or extra living space if needed. Enjoy gorgeous mountain views from the deck. Propane tank included. Low pad rent of $300 per month with pets and rentals allowed. 24 hours notice required for showings.

Since our second quarter forecast, our projected rise in mortgage rates has occurred and accelerated, as the Bank of Canada—spurred by economic growth that far exceeded its outlook—turned suddenly hawkish. The Bank surprised with a 25-basis point increase in July and then again in September, taking its overnight rate back to 1 per cent, where it was before the precipitous drop in oil prices that shocked the Canadian economy in 2014. After the July interest rate hike, markets widely expected at least one additional rate increase in the fall, and so bond markets and lenders had already priced in the September increase by the time it occurred.

Over the past 12 months, the 5-year bond yield has risen 110 basis points to a three-year high of close to 1.8 per cent, prompting a 60-basis point increase in 5-year discounted mortgage rates to above 3 per cent for the first time since 2014. The 5-year qualifying rate has risen just 20 basis points to 4.84 per cent. The latter is an interesting development, because it is the first increase in the posted rate since stricter qualifying rules for insured mortgages were imposed last fall. Rising mortgage rates may complicate the introduction of further mortgage qualifying restrictions slated for October, this time tightening lending for uninsured mortgages.

We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will hold off on further rate increases this year and assess how higher rates are impacting the economic and inflation outlook. However, in the Bank’s recent communications, it has very clearly left the door open for more aggressive tightening should the current torrid pace of economic growth continue. Our baseline forecast is for the 5-year fixed mortgage rate offered by lenders to average 3.15 over the fourth quarter, eventually rising to 3.44 by the end of 2018. The posted 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to reach 5.14 per cent by the end of next year.

Economic Outlook

The Canadian economy is forecast to post its best year of growth since 2013, propelled by 4 per cent average quarterly growth in the first half of 2017. That accelerated pace of growth has meant that excess capacity in the economy, referred to by economists and central banks as the “output gap,” is rapidly being eliminated. The output gap is important because it is used by the Bank of Canada as a guide to future inflation. An economy operating above its potential, as the Canadian economy is on track to do, should be inflationary. Since monetary policy acts with long and variable lags, quelling expected future inflation would necessitate higher interest rates today. Significantly, all measures of inflation monitored by the Bank of Canada currently sit well below the Bank’s official 2 per cent target and, to date, show very little sign of accelerating. Changes to inflation will be key to future movements in interest rates.

We expect the economy will continue to grow above trend in the third and fourth quarters, and will ultimately expand by 3.3 per cent for all of 2017 before slowing in 2018 to 2.3 per cent, as higher interest rates and a soaring loonie start to drag on the economy.

Interest Rate Outlook

Given the rapid expansion in the Canadian economy, it is clear the stimulus introduced to offset falling oil prices is no longer required. However, the policy direction going forward is less clear, given the chronic undershooting of the Bank’s inflation target over the past year.

If sustained economic growth and a closing of the current output gap bring higher inflation, the Bank will likely embark on a more sustained cycle of rate increases to close the wide gap between its current target rate and its estimate of the “neutral” rate at which the economy runs neither too hot nor too cold. The Bank itself estimates that neutral rate in a range of 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent, which means a further 200 to 250 basis points of tightening in the future. However, should inflation remain stubbornly low, the case for rate hikes loses some urgency. Our baseline forecast is for gradual rate increases over the next two years, with the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate ending 2018 at 1.5 per cent.

Additional economics information is available on BCREA’s website at: www.bcrea.bc.ca. To sign up for BCREA news releases by email visit click here.

Mortgage Rate Forecast is published quarterly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

This family home has a wide galley style kitchen, dining room and huge living room. Covered deck was replaced a few years ago. Currently 2 bedrooms on the main floor but the family room could easily become a third bedroom if needed. Main bathroom has a separate shower and deep soaker tub.

Basement has two bedrooms, large rec room, storage, cold room and open laundry room with a sink. Three piece basement bathroom has a large walk in tiled shower. Central a/c, furnace, hot water tank, and roof have all been updated.

New Listing: 84-1435 Summit Drive, Sahali, Kamloops, BC $187,900. This two bedroom rancher style townhome is perfect for first time home-buyers or downsizing.

Great central location in lower Sahali close to all amenities. There are many updates throughout including kitchen, laminate flooring, tiling and bathroom vanity. Situated in one of the quietest locations in the complex, the fenced yard offers lots of privacy and faces a green belt.

Rentals and pets allowed with restrictions. Easy to show and quick possession possible.

This home features an open floor plan on the main floor with large kitchen featuring a pantry, granite countertops and beautiful cabinetry. The master bedroom is on the main floor and features a full ensuite with custom shower. There is an additional den and guest bathroom on the main floor.

Take in the beautiful river valley views from the patio off of the dining space. The basement level is finished with an additional bedroom, guest bathroom, large family room, lots of storage and a second patio.

Other extras include custom millwork surrounding the living room fireplace, surround sound in the family room with extra sound proofing, 2 car garage, security, wading pool with community room and geothermal heating and cooling. 24 hours notice for showings.

New Listing: 204 Thrupp Street, North Kamloops, BC $389,900. Gorgeous RT-3 zoned North Kamloops home with a mortgage helper and detached single car garage/workshop.

The main floor offers an open concept living room and kitchen area, two good sized bedrooms, office nook, 4 piece bathroom and laundry. The basement contains a bright and spacious one bedroom suite with separate entrance and laundry.

Lovely outdoor area with large deck, garden beds and plenty of green space. Garage/shop is wired and insulated. Other features of this home include fully fenced yard, parking for all of your vehicles plus an RV, central air conditioning, updated flooring throughout and much more.

Great central location close to river walking trails and all amenities. This home is updated top to bottom, nothing left to do but move in! 24 hours notice required for suite showings.

This 3 bedroom unit has all updated flooring, kitchen, bathroom, trim, doors, electrical, light fixtures, some windows and more. The main floor is open with the kitchen hosting an eat in dining space. The living room overlooks the large yard with patio space and storage.

The second level features 3 bedrooms with a large master suite and a nicely updated 4 piece bathroom. Single carport and in a great location in the complex with only one shared wall. 24 hours notice for all showings.