Kiev is burning, as protests that started Tuesday almost immediately descended into violence. And if you’re not following the political situation closely, this seems to have come out of nowhere. In truth, though, it’s a conflict that’s been simmering for months, arguably years. Here’s what you need to know about the violence in Kiev.

So these started as protests? Over what?

Essentially, it started over a geopolitical power struggle. On the one side, you have the current government of the Ukraine, led by Viktor Yanukovych, who wants to align more closely with Russia. And on the other, you have the Euromaidan movement, which feels the Ukraine is better served by taking steps to join the European Union. In fact, the Ukraine was, last year, almost ready to take a major step towards joining the EU… but then abruptly, negotiations ended.

That can’t be the only reason.

Part of the reason negotiations broke down is that, essentially, more and more abuses by Yanukovych’s government have come to light. The EU didn’t like the fact that Yanukovych basically threw Yulia Tymoshenko, a former Prime Minister of the Ukraine and the woman who very nearly beat Yanukovych for the presidency, in prison in what many observers believe are trumped-up charges. The fact that Tymoshenko has serious health issues and may be effectively denied medical treatment also doesn’t help matters.

Keep in mind that it’s not just police violence they have to deal with. The temperatures are sub-zero and the weather has been terrible, but it’s estimated 80,000 Ukrainians are protesting in the streets of Kiev. The country is in a de-facto state of emergency.

Why the violence?

It’s widely believed Russia wanted the Ukraine to show that it had the populace in line by cracking down on protesters. On February 18th, as 20,000 protestors began marching, they pushed aside a police barricade. The police replied with stun grenades and shotguns, the protesters began building fiery barracades to keep the police from taking the square, and the situation has gone downhill from there.

Option two would likely trigger a civil war, with the potential to turn into a straight-up war. The Ukraine borders Romania and Poland, members of the European Union, and it’s unlikely any conflict in the country wouldn’t have some fallout for them… which in turn means the EU would have to send troops. Similarly, considering that Vladimir Putin essentially views himself as the strong man of Eurasia, it’s well within the realm of possibility that he will send Russian troops, which would be more of less construed as an invasion of a sovereign country.

Which will it be?

Fortunately, option one seems the more likely. Part of Yanukovynch’s problem is that the protesters have been livestreaming, tweeting, sharing photos, and generally ensuring that he can’t pretend this is a couple of rabble-rousers lighting a few fires, but a huge number of his citizens telling him to get out of office and stay out. He’s under a microscope, and if he decides to start killing his own civilians, the entire world will drop on him.

That said, Putin and Russia want more influence, and to bring their former states back into the fold. And if Kiev, in fact, shakes out in favor of the people who want a more open and less corrupt government, it’s going to start reminding Russian citizens that they don’t have to put up with tyrants. So unfortunately, this might just be the middle of a longer and sadder story.

The one possible scenario you didn’t address (though you grazed it) is that Yanukovynch requests Russian assistance. Assistance which might conceivably come in the form of troops. This is the Afghan Scenario (back in the 80s when the Russians “invaded” Afghanistan but were technically “invited” by the puppet government).

@Badger You mean how the US got him to destroy his chemical weapons without firing a bullet?

Syria and Russia are entirely different, though, geopolitically. For one thing, Russia has oil, and for another, it sells almost as many guns to people as America does. Those give it two pretty strong advantages.

I didn’t mean to suggest that there was a high probability of Ukraine “requestiing” Russian assistance. I was just saying that it would have to be considered an option, primarily because if Ukraine did request Russian assistance (in the form of troops, or FSB support or whatever) then there might be some international outcry but there would be nothing any of the European countries or the US could really do about it. Ukraine is not part of NATO, so you aren’t going to have NATO getting involved militarily. And the UN would be deadlocked and useless because Russia has a Sercurity Council veto and the Chinese would probably use theirs to support Russia (or at least abstain).
Again, I don’t think the “Afghan Scenario” is a likely one. But it is a possibility.

I’m still confused by the whole thing. I was just watching the Vice report from Kiev and they said that most of the protestors are right wing oriented, that being said it’s strange to me how can far right organizations can be pro-EU ? Aren’t they (the right wing) leaning towards Russia ?

Left and right is a lot more nuanced in the former soviet bloc. Socialism/fascism and democracy/dictatorship are where the arguments really lay, especially in Ukraine that went through hell and back over and over again since the start of WWII. They bore both the brunt of the Nazi-Soviet conflicts and the oppressive grip of the Soviets after the fighting ended. They’ve endured every horrific human rights violation imaginable from two sides with completely opposite ideologies, and there’s a century of bad blood with their largest east and west neighbors. The people are politically fractured by ideology, geography, and social status. They don’t trust the EU, they don’t trust Russia, they sure as hell don’t trust their own government. So now you have, hard right fascist groups slipping into the forces behind the protest like we saw with the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring. Russia is a very politically conservative country right now, but they’re still considered natural enemies of the fascist movements in Europe.