CBS Sports Over/Under Picks for SEC 2013 West

(Posted on 7/3/13 at 8:38 pm)

WEST DIVISION

Alabama, 11.5 wins (over +170, under -230)

Undefeated seasons are rare enough in college football that betting any team to pull one off feels rash, a point emphasized by the fact that even mighty Alabama can't move the juice on this under above -230. But, uh, has anyone actually looked at the Tide's Charmin-soft schedule? Unless Virginia Tech is a revelation or Gus Malzahn is a wizard, it's a three-game season: at Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss, vs. LSU. The Tide have byes before the Aggies and Tigers, and bracket the Rebels with Georgia State and Kentucky. So a 3-0 sweep seems more likely than not, and the heavy extra payout on the over makes this an even easier call. Projection: Over

Arkansas, 5.5 wins (over -140, under +100)

Welcome to the SEC, Bret Bielema: your debut road schedule is at Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. That's four losses, and home games with Texas A&M and South Carolina are probably two more. That means to hit the over, the Hogs need to sweep their three home nonconference games (including one vs. a dangerous UL-Lafayette team), win at Rutgers and hold serve at home vs. both Auburn and Mississippi State. That's certainly doable, but the under seems the slightly better bet. Projection: Under

Auburn, 6.5 wins (over +140, under -180)

Assuming Mike Leach doesn't have anything up his sleeve in the opener or Malzahn can't work miracles vs. Georgia or Alabama, Auburn should have a clear-cut four nonconference wins and an equally clear-cut four SEC losses (LSU, Texas A&M, the Dawgs and Tide). That means a winning season comes down to four games: home to Ole Miss and Mississippi State and away at Arkansas and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks. If junior college QB Nick Marshall really is the poor man's Cam Newton, three wins out of those four might be possible. But after Auburn's disastrous 2012, it's hard to expect that great a leap forward. Projection: Under

LSU, 9.5 wins (over +150, under -190)

Not that we agree with Les Miles' position on cross-division scheduling, but when you see his Tigers saddled with Georgia and Florida while the Tide take on Kentucky and Tennessee, you can understand why he's angry. That bad bit of luck means LSU has just five comfortable wins on the schedule and, to hit the over, would need to avoid any more than two losses against this seven-game slate: TCU at Cowboys Stadium, at Georgia, at Missississippi State, vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, at Alabama, vs. Texas A&M. It's possible, especially if the defensive line develops quickly. But even with the under juiced, it's not likely enough to squeeze the trigger on the over. Projection: Under

Ole Miss, 8.5 wins (over +130, under -170)

The Rebels could have easily won eight regular-season games a year ago (with A&M and Vandy dead-to-rights and LSU on the ropes). So with everyone back and Missouri replacing Georgia on the SEC slate, the over's the easy pick, right? Not so fast -- there are three easy home nonconference wins and two likely home league wins ( Missouri and Arkansas), but the other four wins will come much harder: Vandy, Texas, Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State on the road, and Texas A&M and LSU at home. But the guess here is that Hugh Freeze is shrewd enough to get the Rebels those four wins, three of them coming on the road and one in a big upset at home. Projection: Over

Mississippi State, 5.5 wins (over +140, under -180)

No team in the SEC takes a bigger step up in scheduling difficulty from 2012 to 2013 than the Bulldogs, who add Oklahoma State to the nonleague slate, swap Tennessee for South Carolina out of the East and "waste" two home games in potentially nonwinnable matchups vs. Alabama and LSU. Dan Mullen's team likely won't be any worse than it was last year, but the way the 2012 Bulldogs were manhandled by good teams (average margin of defeat of 21 points in their five losses), they wouldn't have won six games against this schedule, either. Projection: Under

Texas A&M, 9.5 wins (over -165, under +125)

Say hello to the friendliest schedule in the 2013 SEC: four patsies outside of conference plus Missouri and Vanderbilt out of the East. Unless the Aggies have a stunning slip-up in Fayetteville, they should cruise to nine wins, meaning they'd need just one from trips to Ole Miss and LSU and their home showdown with the Tide. From here, 0-3 looks more likely than even 2-1, given the Aggies' seeming self-satisfaction this offseason. But Kevin Sumlin, Johnny Manziel and Co. are simply too good not to grab one of those W's. Projection: Over

quote:Say hello to the friendliest schedule in the 2013 SEC: four patsies outside of conference plus Missouri and Vanderbilt out of the East. Unless the Aggies have a stunning slip-up in Fayetteville, they should cruise to nine wins, meaning they'd need just one from trips to Ole Miss and LSU and their home showdown with the Tide. From here, 0-3 looks more likely than even 2-1, given the Aggies' seeming self-satisfaction this offseason. But Kevin Sumlin, Johnny Manziel and Co. are simply too good not to grab one of those W's. Projection: Over

If we get 9 wins this year, I'll go fricking crazy. Does this include bowl wins, because I'd bet it then, but not touching it if it doesn't include that. I'm expecting 8 regular season wins and a bowl win. 2013 is still rebuilding. 2014 is when we go for the Big Kahuna.