How My NFL Predictions Worked Out by G.W. Gras

At the start of the NFL season, I wrote two articles for the Route4Sports website. I predicted how each conference would finish and even added in a couple of notes of what to watch for here and there. I said it then, and I’ll say it again now, sports predictions are the practice of over-inflated egos – so of course being someone who calls himself the Heartthrob I had no problem putting my name to these predictions. Now, do I brag about how right I was, or do I make excuses for my blunders? Trick question, I will do both.

I got the NFC South, completely wrong. Like completely wrong. I, like many others, thought the Falcons would’ve been the odds on favorite to not only win this division but to even make it to the NFC Championship game. It was obvious by week 4 this team was a shell of what they were last season. The injury to star wide out Julio Jones in early October was a deafening blow to this team, and Harry Douglas became Matt Ryan’s main source of offense as Steven Jackson and Roddy White struggled to stay on the field for most of the season. The defense was one of the worse in the league, and they struggled keeping up with teams on both sides of the ball.

I thought this would be the story for the New Orleans Saints, who obviously didn’t like me picking them to finish 5-11. I thought the return of Sean Payton at head coach would be over-rated, and I didn’t think Rob Ryan would make such an improvement on a defense that was historically awful one season ago. I did say that Josh Freeman was not the real deal and would eventually be benched for Mike Glennon – and when it comes to Mike Glennon, I’m not sure if he’s the “answer” for Tampa Bay, but he didn’t look too bad out there – there will be decisions to be made on Glennon in the offs-season, as he did show some signs of being competent under center.

The AFC East for me was a slam dunk. No way can anyone go against the Patriots in this division as long as Brady is there. Unfortunately for Brady that is literally ALL that is there. Injuries to Gronkowski, an average at best defense and a bunch of slot receivers is all Brady had to work with all year. It got them to the AFC Championship game sure, but we all kind of knew it was all smoke in mirrors. I picked the Jets to finish second in the division, while most were picking them to finish as one of the worse in the NFL. Geno Smith may be horrible, but the team worked thru his weaknesses to finish 8-8 and were in the wild card hunt for most of the year. It was too easy to pick the Dolphins to fail as they made all the pre-season noise when signing major free agents, but that only leaves them with a lot of post season questions heading forward.

The last big miss on my part was the AFC South (there must be something about down South that I just don’t“get”). I thought Indy would miss the playoffs and finish with a 7-9 record, instead they finished on top of the division an 11-5 record, which included a first round playoff win against a Kansas City Chiefs team that had such a big lead by halftime, they decided to not even show up for the 3rd and 4th quarters. I thought the Houston Texans would win this division by default and they instead won the first pick in the NFL draft. I’m actually glad I was wrong with this one. The Texans kind of made me sick with the way they seemingly sleep-walk week to week and show minimal effort. Games are earned, not given in this league. They still have enough talent on that roster to re-up for next season, so they’re not dead yet.

For the rest of the league predictions, I give myself a pat on the back. I had the Packers and Bears tied for the lead in the NFC North and if it wasn’t for that ridiculous tie the Packers had with the Vikings it would be true. In all honesty if your team ties with the Minnesota Vikings, it should count as a loss anyway. It’s amazing both of these teams stood afloat considering both starting quarterbacks missed time. The Bears were lucky enough to have a quality back up in Josh McCown to keep the team in contention in Jay Cutler’s absence, while Green Bay was lucky to have, luck on their side as Aaron Rodgers missed most of the regular season. Credit should be given to coach McCarthy for keeping his team alive through it all, it wasn’t pretty, but he won the division title regardless. I was right about the Lions being crazy for giving Stafford the extension, and the fact that Jim Schwartz was fired by season’s end proved me right in saying he was in the “bottom five of NFL coaches.”

I took some flack for saying the 49ers would finish 9-7 and with good reason. But I still hold firm on what I said of Colin Kaepernick then. I don’t buy into him and after seeing his collapse late in the NFC Championship Game, you can see why. But even forgetting that, I watched him all season long and he seemed to lack the poise to go through his progressions and at times was just too jittery for me under center. Arizona I predicted to finish 10-6 and was spot on but unfortunately for Bruce Arians and the Cardinals, it still wasn’t enough to get a seat at the table in the playoffs. The AFC North was everyone’s favorite division to pick because nearly everyone had it : Cincy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh then Cleveland. Although I do think this division would’ve been shaken up a little bit more if Hoyer didn’t get injured for Cleveland, it was Cincy’s to lose. . . and they almost did as Baltimore’s defense was picking up steam and making up for Joe Flacco offense which was less-than-impressive. Cincy has lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators after making a first round exit in the playoffs. And Marvin Lewis remains the head coach after again, not winning a playoff game. The NFL is a confusing place.

Lastly, I had Kansas City and Denver tied for the division lead in the AFC West. Was I wrong? Yes. But after the previous season that the Chiefs had, consider the fact that some had KC in their power rankings all season long. Injuries derailed this team. I thought Alex Smith did what was asked of him (and NOBODY should be blaming him for this team’s embarrassing playoff loss, he balled) and Jamaal Charles was outstanding and earned my nod for league MVP. Keeping all that in mind, predicting them to finish first in a division after the abysmal season they had, was not only bold – but almost right. . . if those pesky Broncos didn’t stand in the way.

And for those that laughed when I said, Chip Kelly would find success in the NFL – how you like me now?

Where does one start when breaking down the Detroit Lions? Let’s first start by acknowledging the city of Detroit. Nick-named the Motor City, for being the home to what we know as the American automotive industry. The city where Berry Gordy changed the music industry by introducing the world to Motown Records. Detroit is the city that raised and helped to mold musical icons like Stevie Wonder and Eminem – so why is it, the Detroit Lions ended up like the Insane Clown Posse?

Think not? Both take on aggressive personas which only leads to them getting in their own way and even when they do achieve success, they are never taken seriously. After enduring the Matt Millen era, fans of the Detroit Lions thought it could not get any worse. Being a bad team is one thing – but being a team loaded with talent and failing to reach expectations – that’s the true pain of a sports fan.

Everyone knew at the start of the season head coach, Jim Schwartz was on the “hot seat.” Schwartz had an ill-tempered demeanor and it had infected his locker room. With a team that showed no regard for rules, sportsmanship and losing it’s cool – the days were numbered for Schwartz. The Lions organization maybe felt it was only right to see if he can fix the mess he created because after all he did coach the Lions to a playoff birth for the first time in over a decade. Give the man credit for that at least.

Things could not have been made easier for the Detroit Lions this season and they blew it. This was a season in which Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers for seven weeks, the Bears were without Jay Cutler for a month and the Minnesota Vikings had three starting quarterbacks who were all non-threatening at the position. The Lions were relatively healthy the entire season but losses to lowly teams like the Bucs and the Steelers hurt them in the month of November and it allowed a three team race for this division right up until the end of the season.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford became the topic of discussion for this team and not for good reason. Stafford was given a three year extension worth over $50 million. But looking passed the gaudy yardage numbers, Stafford had a 1-23 record against teams who finish the season with a winning record. When games are within 7 points in the 4th quarter, Stafford throws at a 53% completion percentage, tossed 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Not exactly the model of consistency a franchise quarterback should have in crunch time. The running joke, that isn’t quite as funny for the Detroit Lions brass, is that Calvin Johnson should be getting half of that extension money given to Stafford, because Megatron may be masking the faults that lie in Stafford as a quarterback. Calvin Johnson led the team in receptions with 84, the next two behind him with 54 and 53 receptions were Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, respectively. . . two running backs. This leads me to believe that if Calvin isn’t there – instead of Stafford going through his progressions, his eyes immediately look for the check down.

Detroit’s defense-line already struck fear into the hearts of most quarterbacks because of Ndamukong Suh – not just because he’s a gifted athlete at the defensive tackle position, but because while you’re down there’s no telling if he’ll stomp you with his cleats or worse. Adding Nick Fairly to the D Line only increased the amount of disturbing malay which can occur at any given moment – but Ezekiel Ansah (Ziggy the Answer as I call him) seems to be the real deal, leading this feared line with 8 sacks in his rookie season. Usually when a team has a D-Line this potent, the secondary benefits, but that wasn’t the case with the Lions. Deandre Levy had a decent year in stats (6 INTs and 15 passes defended) but he along with rookie Darius Slay and the rest of the secondary seemed to never have a clue when a route went behind them and were terrible in communicating coverages in cross patterns. Lack of discipline, once again.

Finishing the season with a record of 7-9, definitely wasn’t what was expected and once again the city of Detroit was left disappointed. These tough guys who put up gaudy numbers and who like to hit after the whistle – ultimately came out looking like clowns by season’s end.

The Lions still have the pieces that make you go “ooh” and “ahh” when taking a look at the depth chart and even with the questions now arising about Matthew Stafford, Detroit will never be an “easy out,” for anybody. The problem is they lacked consistency and discipline. Maybe next year under new head coach Jim Caldwell, there will be some accountability for actions on the field. Or maybe, just maybe – the outlaws that inhabit this town, think things are just fine and they won’t take kindly to a new sheriff throwing his weight around. Only time will tell.

When word got out that the University of Texas was set to part ways with head coach Mack Brown so many names popped up as potential candidates. From Nick Saban to Jon Gruden; Jim Mora Jr. to Jim Harbaugh – everyone thought Texas was going to throw a ridiculous amount of money to the biggest name coach they could get their hands on. Instead Texas didn’t go that route. They went the smartest of routes and lured head coach Charlie Strong from Louisville to take the job.

Why was it the smartest route? The Texas Longhorns boosters and fans are hungry and buying a big name coach without an immediate National Championship run would be seen as a heartbreaking failure to the masses. Even an embarrassment. Also, Charlie Strong is an amazing candidate, not only in terms of coaching but in moving the program forward. Strong has ‘made his bones’ – so to speak – to get to this position. He has made his rounds through Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Notre Dame and the South Carolina Gamecocks – but he truly made his mark as defensive coordinator at the University of Florida. He served as DC under head coach Ron Zook, and when Zook was replaced by Urban Meyer, Strong was the only assistant that was kept on board.

When Strong was hired by the Louisville to be head coach, he immediately showed how he can turn a program around. His aggressive coaching style and recruiting talents brought Louisville to a bowl game in each of his four years there, winning three – one of the wins coming against his former team, Florida, in which Louisville pulled off a huge upset winning 33-23 over the heavily favored gators. His coaching resume is impressive but that’s not what shocked me in the hiring. The shock for me was that the University of Texas hired a black man to be the head coach of their storied football program. And I applaud them for this move – hear me out.

For years now the NFL and College Football have been criticized for the lack of head coaching opportunities given to black men. I think there has been a positive move in this direction for both entities and I think as it stands today, the “win now” mentality has trumped all cards and owners/universities are trying to hire the best fit for the best results. . . for the most part.

I didn’t even know until yesterday that Charlie Strong has made public statements in the past on how he believes he hadn’t been hired as a head coach because of his race. Strong, who is married to a white woman, also believed that people in some old fashioned states of mind were uncomfortable with the fact that he is in a “mixed marriage.” Nothing in college football rings more “old fashioned” to me than the University of Texas (and maybe Notre Dame).

Just in the last year or so the University of Texas has made news for all the wrong reasons when talking about race-issues on it’s campus. One story cited the fact that students were throwing “bleach filled” balloons at black students from a campus building. Another story was a group at the university started a “Catch An Illegal Immigrant” event, where some students would walk around campus wearing shirts that read “illegal immigrant” and if you were to bring this student in, you would be rewarded with a $25 gift card. Classy.

The hiring is a great move for the University of Texas moving forward in terms of society and for their football program.

Strong was able to recruit 4 and 5 star level talent to Louisville, so imagine what he could do with all the connections that go with the Texas pipeline. He just coached up quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who might go number one over-all in the next NFL draft – huge selling point to recruit for Texas. Especially considering how Mack Brown had whiffed on quarterback recruiting late in his tenure.

Pat Forde of YahooSports, wrote that Charlie Strong’s anti-social, anti-media ways made him a wrong fit for Texas. I totally disagree on that point. Texas had the guy who was social, media friendly and everyone’s friend in Mack Brown – and it wore thin. Texas didn’t need the nice guy anymore. They needed results. Texas is a big enough program that the Longhorn name can sell itself. There is a lot of stress that will come with this job, but stress for someone who looks like he can bench press a dump truck should be manageable. He has also earned this opportunity and I see nothing but good things happening to this program while under Strong.

Craig Krenzel. Shane Matthews. Cade McNown. Moses Moreno. Kordell Stewart. Rex Grossman. . . ugh. Okay that last one hurts more than the rest, but the list of names you just read were players in the NFL. Bad players. To be more specific – bad players who started at quarterback for the Chicago Bears.

For such a storied franchise with a rich history, the Chicago Bears never seemed to be a team that cared much for the man under center. I say this but let me first acknowledge the two quarterbacks who are considered “great” for this franchise. The “Punky QB” Jim McMahon helped lead the ’85 Bears to a Super Bowl victory, but lets not forget he played with arguably the best running back of All Time, in Walter Payton – and didn’t have much to worry about when he was on the bench because this defense still remains historically as one of the best ever assembled. And then there’s Sid Luckman. I never saw him play. A matter of fact, my father never saw him play. And I doubt my grand father ever saw him play because I think there were only 5 television sets in America in the 1940s. I kid, but you know what I’m saying.

The Chicago Bears entered the new year with a huge question. Will they re-sign quarterback Jay Cutler? Not even a week into 2014 they answered that question and the answer was a resounding 7 year, 126.7 million dollar yes. Although those are the figures that grab everyone’s immediate attention, the important numbers in that contract are the 3 years and $54 million he is guaranteed.

Jay Cutler is one of the toughest people to figure out in the NFL. An enigma if you will. Maybe that’s why he’s been the target of so much negativity in his career.

Cutler’s nonchalant ways and “black cloud” demeanor just doesn’t sit well with many. We see the super-hero smile of Tom Brady; the comical and commercial appeal of Peyton Manning or even the “aw shucks” ways of a young Andrew Luck and some say to themselves – that’s how a quarterback should be. Cutler is the “Anti-Celebrity-Quarterback”. . . kinda. Let’s keep in mind he did marry the lovely Kristin Cavallari who never shies away from the camera.

Forget the attitude, the facial expressions and at times even – forget the numbers. Jay Cutler is the quarterback the Bears were not going to let slip away. When general manager Phil Emery hired coach Marc Trestman, the quarterback guru – it was to elevate the play and finally bring out the potential that we all know Cutler possesses. In one season with Trestman, Jay Cutler had a passer rating of 89.2 (career best), a third down rating of 102.6 (career best) and a completion percentage of 63.1% (his best since 2007). Why would the Bears quit on a guy who has all the tools and showed progression in just one year under a coach who can make a starting quarterback out of an egg salad?

Let’s also not forget this was Cutler’s first year of having real weapons around him. Brandon Marshall arrived last year and he’s always had Forte – but this year the emergence of Alshon Jeffrey, the addition of Martellus Bennet and — oh yeah that’s right – an offensive line (finally) helped make life a lot easier for number 6. Cutler made legitimate runs leading a Bears team that for years did not give him any protection and who’s best wideouts were glorified kick returners in Johnny Knox and Devin Hester. He’s gotten knocked down more times than I can imagine and he still found ways to put something together on drives that would’ve been dead with any other Bears QB that came before him.

I have called myself on a number of occasions to be Jay Cutler’s public defender – I find myself running to find facts or scenarios to help destroy a case brought up to me in debate that is an attempt to tarnish the quarterback play of Cutler – but even I know there are the negatives. His gun-slinging mentality leads to untimely and at times awful interceptions; and his injuries have killed runs of “what could have been” for the Chicago Bears franchise. But you have to think that now with the protection he has up front and with Marc Trestman in his ear – the injuries and mistakes will be minimal.

Some said the contract was too much. If it is, than tell me what a starting quarterback’s salary should be in the NFL. And after that, tell me that a team like the Titans, Texans, Vikings or Rams wouldn’t have paid the same price for Jay Cutler if the Bears let him go out and test the market. If you’re saying “no” – you’re obviously delusional. If Matt Stafford who’s proved nothing and Joe Flacco who went on a 4 game hot streak could pull off these kind of numbers in their contracts, why can’t Cutler?

Let’s even say your response is “draft a quarterback,” – okay let’s look at that option. The Bears have the 14th pick in the draft. No way do they land a Bridgewater, a Bortles or a Manziel. Best case scenerio is Derek Carr . . . and he’s a project and. . . he’s a Carr. The Bears have a window and that window is set for the 3 years of guaranteed money they gave Jay Cutler. Imagine the outrage in Chicago (the city and team) if general manager Phil Emery decided to go the cheaper route and sign a free agent QB like Kellen Clemens or Chad Henne – yeah that would go over real well.

When it comes to the hate thrown in Jay Cutler’s direction, as Mike Ditka says “Stop it.” If you’re a Bears fan, don’t be misguided by the outsiders. Jay Cutler is the best quarterback this team has seen – in about 20 years if you’re a McMahon loyalist / 70 years if you’re a Luckman loyalist. In another three years, Jay Cutler will hold every Chicago Bears passing record. Seriously, he can go down as the greatest quarterback in Bears history. Much of it do to his talent and the poor list of quarterbacks before him.

This is the move the Bears had to make and Bears fans everywhere should be happy with it. The offense isn’t what Bears fans should worry about – it’s in good hands with Cutler. The defense on the other hand. . .