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Chris Wesseling

Goal Line Stand

Updated Week 4 Rankings

The NFL news cycle can be vicious. Less than 24 hours after throwing for 323 yards and a pair of scores against the league’s most imposing pass defense, Peyton Manning's arm strength was back in the news.

ESPN’s Ron Jaworski noted that Manning isn’t “spinning it” like Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford. This was hardly earth-shattering news, as Manning was never among the league’s rifle arms even in his prime.

The story sprouted more legs, however, when a veteran scout texted NFL Network’s Albert Breer to say, “Peyton Manning can’t throw the ball anymore.” Wait, there’s more. As Breer delved deeper, the scout offered, "I would put my professional reputation on this -- he cannot throw with the velocity he could a couple years ago. He just can't. He's still as smart and accurate as anybody, he just can't sling it the way he used to." Another scout went on to voice the same opinion to Breer, stating that Manning’s arm is “for sure, a lot weaker.”

I’m no scout, but I watched the game and Manning’s arm wasn’t exactly in pop-gun Pennington mode. If that arm was strong enough for a top-10 Week 3 fantasy finish against the Texans, it’s plenty sufficient to exploit a Raiders defense absolutely torn asunder by opposing aerial attacks. Oakland’s corners are so shabby that safety Mike Huff had to change positions, to "spectacularly bad" results versus the Steelers. Spinning or not, Manning is a must-start in Week 4.

QB Notes: What to make of Rodgers? He hasn’t directed the Packers offense to 20 points in a game since last Christmas. Of course, the defenses of the Super Bowl winning Giants and this year’s 49ers, Bears and Seahawks has a lot to do with that. With his weapons intact and a potential shootout looming against a Saints defense that just allowed 510 total yards to the Chiefs, Rodgers is getting the benefit of the doubt this week. He gets the edge over Brees due solely to homefield advantage.

Stafford returned to practice Thursday and is on track to play against a Vikings defense that could be in a let-down game after playing over their heads against the 49ers. … The Falcons-Panthers game could match the Packers-Saints for fireworks potential. It’s a big game for Newton’s fantasy outlook.

Playing without his top receiver for 11-of-12 quarters, Griffin has directed the Redskins to a league-high 99 points while averaging 404.3 yards per game. If you drafted RGIII as your backup, however, it may not be a great idea to shop your other quarterback. Griffin is on pace for 171 rushing attempts, which would shatter Michael Vick’s career-high of 123. Defenses are starting to sell out their ends, as evidenced by the eye-popping 28 times that Griffin went to the ground with contact against the Bengals. He’s taking a lot of punishment out of that pistol offense.

Fitzpatrick’s fantasy points have been inflated by a garbage-time Jets defense and two weak opponents. As NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell points out, only three of Fitzpatrick’s 86 pass attempts have traveled 19+ yards. He still has issues with ball placement. Sell high if you can. … Schaub’s accuracy on deep and intermediate balls was pin-point versus Denver, but the Texans remain the run-heaviest team in the NFL. … Look for Ponder’s fantasy production to rise with Jerome Simpson on board as a vertical threat.

Cutler has another tough matchup against a Dallas defense that has shut passing games down this season. … Locker’s Week 3 stats were artificially inflated by a pair of fluky long touchdowns to Jared Cook and Nate Washington. He has a prohibitive matchup against J.J. Watt and Johnathan Joseph.

The NFL news cycle can be vicious. Less than 24 hours after throwing for 323 yards and a pair of scores against the league’s most imposing pass defense, Peyton Manning's arm strength was back in the news.

ESPN’s Ron Jaworski noted that Manning isn’t “spinning it” like Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford. This was hardly earth-shattering news, as Manning was never among the league’s rifle arms even in his prime.

The story sprouted more legs, however, when a veteran scout texted NFL Network’s Albert Breer to say, “Peyton Manning can’t throw the ball anymore.” Wait, there’s more. As Breer delved deeper, the scout offered, "I would put my professional reputation on this -- he cannot throw with the velocity he could a couple years ago. He just can't. He's still as smart and accurate as anybody, he just can't sling it the way he used to." Another scout went on to voice the same opinion to Breer, stating that Manning’s arm is “for sure, a lot weaker.”

I’m no scout, but I watched the game and Manning’s arm wasn’t exactly in pop-gun Pennington mode. If that arm was strong enough for a top-10 Week 3 fantasy finish against the Texans, it’s plenty sufficient to exploit a Raiders defense absolutely torn asunder by opposing aerial attacks. Oakland’s corners are so shabby that safety Mike Huff had to change positions, to "spectacularly bad" results versus the Steelers. Spinning or not, Manning is a must-start in Week 4.

QB Notes: What to make of Rodgers? He hasn’t directed the Packers offense to 20 points in a game since last Christmas. Of course, the defenses of the Super Bowl winning Giants and this year’s 49ers, Bears and Seahawks has a lot to do with that. With his weapons intact and a potential shootout looming against a Saints defense that just allowed 510 total yards to the Chiefs, Rodgers is getting the benefit of the doubt this week. He gets the edge over Brees due solely to homefield advantage.

Stafford returned to practice Thursday and is on track to play against a Vikings defense that could be in a let-down game after playing over their heads against the 49ers. … The Falcons-Panthers game could match the Packers-Saints for fireworks potential. It’s a big game for Newton’s fantasy outlook.

Playing without his top receiver for 11-of-12 quarters, Griffin has directed the Redskins to a league-high 99 points while averaging 404.3 yards per game. If you drafted RGIII as your backup, however, it may not be a great idea to shop your other quarterback. Griffin is on pace for 171 rushing attempts, which would shatter Michael Vick’s career-high of 123. Defenses are starting to sell out their ends, as evidenced by the eye-popping 28 times that Griffin went to the ground with contact against the Bengals. He’s taking a lot of punishment out of that pistol offense.

Fitzpatrick’s fantasy points have been inflated by a garbage-time Jets defense and two weak opponents. As NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell points out, only three of Fitzpatrick’s 86 pass attempts have traveled 19+ yards. He still has issues with ball placement. Sell high if you can. … Schaub’s accuracy on deep and intermediate balls was pin-point versus Denver, but the Texans remain the run-heaviest team in the NFL. … Look for Ponder’s fantasy production to rise with Jerome Simpson on board as a vertical threat.

Cutler has another tough matchup against a Dallas defense that has shut passing games down this season. … Locker’s Week 3 stats were artificially inflated by a pair of fluky long touchdowns to Jared Cook and Nate Washington. He has a prohibitive matchup against J.J. Watt and Johnathan Joseph.

Week 4 Running Backs

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Arian Foster

vs. TEN

-

2

Ray Rice

vs. CLE

-

3

LeSean McCoy

vs. NYG

-

4

Maurice Jones-Drew

vs. CIN

-

5

Adrian Peterson

at DET

-

6

Ryan Mathews

at KC

-

7

Jamaal Charles

vs. SD

-

8

Darren McFadden

at DEN

Probable(shoulder)

9

Marshawn Lynch

at STL

-

10

Cedric Benson

vs. NO

-

11

Frank Gore

at NYJ

-

12

Trent Richardson

at BAL

-

13

Doug Martin

vs. WAS

-

14

DeMarco Murray

vs. CHI

-

15

Stevan Ridley

at BUF

-

16

Alfred Morris

at TB

-

17

Willis McGahee

vs. OAK

Probable(ribs)

18

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

at JAC

-

19

Matt Forte

at DAL

Expected to play

20

Mikel Leshoure

vs. MIN

-

21

Darren Sproles

at GB

-

22

Fred Jackson

vs. NE

Expected to start

23

Michael Turner

vs. CAR

-

24

Reggie Bush

at ARZ

'Scheduled' to play

25

Ryan Williams

vs. MIA

-

26

Chris Johnson

at HOU

-

27

Ben Tate

vs. TEN

-

28

C.J. Spiller

vs. NE

Will play, role in question

29

Pierre Thomas

at GB

-

30

Ahmad Bradshaw

at PHI

Probable(neck)

31

Andre Brown

at PHI

-

32

DeAngelo Williams

at ATL

-

33

Jonathan Stewart

at ATL

Probable(toe)

34

Michael Bush

at DAL

-

35

Steven Jackson

vs. SEA

Will play, limited role?

36

Jacquizz Rodgers

vs. CAR

-

37

Mark Ingram

at GB

-

38

Shonn Greene

vs. SF

-

39

Daniel Thomas

at ARZ

-

40

Bilal Powell

vs. SF

-

41

Daryl Richardson

vs. SEA

-

42

Danny Woodhead

at BUF

-

43

Kendall Hunter

at NYJ

-

44

Shaun Draughn

vs. SD

-

45

Rashad Jennings

vs. CIN

Probable(knee)

46

Felix Jones

vs. CHI

Probable(ribs)

47

Mike Tolbert

at ATL

-

48

William Powell

vs. MIA

-

49

Tashard Choice

vs. NE

-

50

Bernard Scott

at JAC

Questionable(ankle)

51

Ronnie Hillman

vs. OAK

-

52

Evan Royster

at TB

Probable(knee)

53

Lance Ball

vs. OAK

-

54

Chris Ogbonnaya

at BAL

-

55

Toby Gerhart

at DET

-

56

Mike Goodson

at DEN

Questionable(hamstring)

57

Kahlil Bell

at DAL

-

58

Kevin Smith

vs. MIN

-

59

Bryce Brown

vs. NYG

-

60

LeGarrette Blount

vs. WAS

-

61

Lamar Miller

at ARZ

-

62

Javon Ringer

at HOU

Questionable(elbow)

RB Notes: Ravens defensive boss Dick Jauron calls Rice “one of the very best players in the league on the offensive side of the ball.” That’s been evident for awhile now, as Rice has emerged as the best all-around back in the game. He jumped off the tape against the Patriots, succeeding between the tackles, sustaining a rushing attack, getting to the corner, turning on a dime after the catch and excelling in pass protection. Rice has averaged 134 yards per in his last four games versus the Browns.

Jones-Drew draws a Bengals defense that has hemorrhaged 102 points in three games, with MLB Rey Maualuga forfeiting big plays at an alarming rate. … Even on a surgically-repaired knee, Peterson still runs as violently as any back in the league. … Mathews had a whopping eight targets in his debut. There aren’t more than a half-dozen backs I would take for the remainder of the season. … NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell believes McFadden isn’t quite as explosive as he’s been the previous two seasons. The Raiders have passed the ball 128 times compared to just 44 rushing attempts for McFadden. Expect regression to the mean the rest of the way.

What was most impressive about Charles’ career-high 288 yards wasn’t the 91-yard touchdown run. That was merely the most obvious example of the Saints’ lack of speed on defense. It’s the 39 touches -- besting his previous career-high by a dozen -- that is most telling for fantasy value. With Peyton Hillis in a walking boot, Charles will see an increased role in the passing game versus the Chargers. … Speaking of the Saints defense, no back has a better matchup this week than Benson. New Orleans has allowed the most rushing yards and the fantasy points to opposing running backs of any defense.

I’m not suggesting that Martin lacks job security, but it’s slightly disconcerting that LeGarrette Blount’s four runs last week were four of the most productive by the Bucs that game. Martin has yet to show an extra gear. … Ridley’s playing time decreased in Week 3 simply because he’s not in the no-huddle personnel grouping. I would expect a bigger role against the Bills. … Morris is the first Redskins back since Stephen Davis in 1999 to open the season with three consecutive games of 75+ rushing yards. He has that job on lockdown. … McGahee felt good after Wednesday’s practice. All signs are positive thus far.

Matt Forte has been overly optimistic about his chances of playing Monday. Until we hear differently from the Bears, I’m assuming he sits one more week. Keep an eye on Bush’s shoulder, though. That injury kept him out of practice Wednesday. … The other Bush missed practice with swelling and stiffness in his knee and could be a game-time decision. … Leshoure has the look of a volume runner. Give him a week to see if he starts showing playmaking ability before considering a sell-high.

Ryan Williams has a window to take full control of the Cardinals backfield, but keep expectations in check. The Dolphins defense kills fantasy backs, and Williams has had just one good quarter in 12 this season. He looked great as a clock-killer in Week 3 versus a tired Eagles defense. … This is one of the weeks to use Tate as a RB2 against a Titans defense that has been steamrolled by opposing backs. … S-Jax wasn’t himself while playing through a groin injury last week. … Until further notice, Bradshaw and Brown are splitting time.

Fred Jackson appeared to be further along than C.J. Spiller entering Wednesday, but the two could be trending in opposite directions. Check back Friday afternoon for an update on the Bills backfield. … Jonathan Stewart admits his toe isn’t right. … Greene and Powell have combined to average 3.1 YPC on first down.

WR Notes:Calvin Johnson flat-out took over the game in the fourth quarter and overtime, making a series of acrobatic grabs in heavy traffic. It doesn’t feel like he’s truly exploded yet, but he has 58 more yards than the next-closest receiver. … Speaking of which, Green is second in yards and first in fantasy points. His brilliant performance versus the Redskins could have been even more rewarding for fantasy owners had an 11-yard reverse not been stopped a foot shy of the end zone.

As we suspected before the season, Harvin is essentially slump proof. There’s no more electric NFL player in space, and coordinator Bill Musgrave is pulling out all the stops to get the ball in his hands after struggling as a play-caller in his Minnesota debut last season. Harvin leads the league in receptions and is second only to Brandon Myers in catch percentage. … Don’t think Andre Johnson was lucky to reel in a 60-yard bomb from Matt Schaub last week. He got open deep downfield two other times. The first resulted in a drop on a perfectly placed ball, and the other was a near-catch in the end zone on the play that resulted in Schaub losing a portion of his ear to a vicious Joe Mays hit.

Play Thomas and Decker with confidence this week. The Raiders secondary is that bad, and both receivers are in the top-20 in targets. … The Bills allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and the duo of Lloyd and Welker is coming off huge games in Week 3. … Jordy Nelson is due to go off in a potential shootout with the Saints. I’d trust him more than Jennings, who is still not back to first-half 2011 form. … Vincent Jackson has a dream matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed 10 touchdown passes already.

Steve Smith has made the most of his four targets in each of the past two games. … Dwayne Bowe, on the other hand, has been targeted at least 15 times in each of the past two weeks. … Marshall has a daunting matchup against a Cowboys defense that used shadow corner Brandon Carr and essentially a box-in-one on Vincent Jackson last week. … Dez Bryant doesn’t have a red zone target. That’s largely because only three teams have run fewer red zone plays than Dallas. … Since Week 11 of last season, the Eagles are 7-0 when Maclin plays and 0-3 when he sits.

Britt was targeted 11 times and just missed several plays. Matchups guru Evan Silva believes a breakout is coming, but it will likely have to wait a week with lockdown corner Johnathan Joseph in coverage Sunday. … Holmes is averaging a healthy 11 targets per game. … Denarius Moore has been Carson Palmer’s favorite target in the two games he’s played, averaging nine per. … Sidney Rice had just one target in Week 3, as the Seahawks are clearly trying to hide their rookie quarterback. … Alex Smith has only passed six times in the red zone, and his primary read there is Vernon Davis -- not Crabtree.

I wouldn’t hold out much hope for Garcon this week. If he sits, move Hankerson up a half-dozen spots. … Jones and Cobb are flex-worthy this week in what projects as one of the highest-scoring games. … Titus Young’s snap count skyrocketed in Week 3 because Tony Scheffler was out; the Lions ran fewer two-tight end sets. … Barden will play a minor role with Hakeem Nicks due back. … Kerley has yet to be targeted more than four times in a game.

TE Notes: Gronkowski averaged 7.75 targets per week under Bill O’Brien last season. He’s down to six per week under Josh McDaniels, largely because he spent the second half of the Ravens game doing nothing but blocking. Gronk remains a red-zone monster, but his consistency will suffer as McDaniels uses his parts differently this season.

The Chiefs have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends through three weeks, and the Chargers figure to try to get Gates going after a disappointing output versus the Falcons. Gates’ ribs looked fine last week. … Vernon Davis is leading all tight ends in fantasy points; the Jets are without their best cover man. … Finley leads the Packers in targets. If he can’t be trusted in a potential shootout with the Saints, you’re never going to use him.

Heath Miller, who leads all players in red-zone targets, is the only tight end with more than Martellus Bennett. … Pitta is tied with Jimmy Graham for the tight-end target lead with 31. He’s here to stay as a TE1 option. … Rudolph is Christian Ponder’s go-to guy in the end zone, to the point where a wide open Adrian Peterson was ignored on the tight end’s circus catch last week. The Lions have surrendered 15 receptions, 220 yards and 3 TDs to tight ends the past two weeks.

Witten’s problems have been related to rust and concentration. He’s getting open, just not catching the ball. … Olsen’s 14 Week 3 targets are encouraging, but the matchup is tough this week. … Cook is touch-and-go with a shoulder injury against the best defense in the league. … Cameron is worth tracking to see if his role continues to expand, but he’s hardly trustworthy at Baltimore. … Myers has velcro hands, but he’s not targeted heavily and doesn’t make plays after the catch.

Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.Email :Chris Wesseling