Category Archives: EUR/USD

Up and down goes EURUSD and not giving a clear signal on the trend direction. Price action is looking corrective and EURUSD has not yet confirmed on the downside that the larger wave down has started. Friday’s NFP release sent EURUSD just over 100 pips down from the day’s high, which the market rapidly took back. The figures were slightly below expectations and in my opinion does not give much clarity on rate hike situation. more…

FOMC Thursday sent EURUSD lower. The statement did not say anything new and the rate hike nonsense is not any more clear than before. In my opinion there is going to be probably one rate hike but no more. EURUSD has declined since Wednesday and the decline is looking strong. If EURUSD goes below the recent low at 1.0808 my wave count needs a revision. I am going to keep this wave count which suggests a large triangle. more…

EURUSD recovered nicely since March, but we see price action choppy, overlapping and very slow compared to previous strong decline. That’s characteristics of a corrective price action, so we assume that this is just a pause within larger downtrend which may resume through August, as pattern can be near completion. Ideally pair will continue straight down into wave V targeting 1.0000 psychological level. more…

EURUSD pushed higher Thursday and this puts my wave count to jeopardy. This is still valid count and the upwards move is in 3 waves. If the upwards price action persists, there is likely another count more suitable here. The recent low allows the triangle scenario which I have talked about before. If EURUSD continues higher I am going to adopt the triangle count below. more…

EURUSD was on a down note with the Greek vote last week adding some volatility to this pair. In my opinion, no matter what, Greece is staying on the Euro zone. I am expecting this pair to decline further before turning bullish for the next corrective wave up. If this is going to be a triangle forming here, the decline should be subdued. If this is following my preferred wave count, This can go much lower. We will find out soon enough which view is correct. more…

The EURUSD has been trending lower in recent weeks and the selling pressure has accelerated over the past few days as the investor focus has returned to the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone economies. Whereas the Fed has signalled that it is ready to hike rates later this year, the ECB has only recently started QE and there were no suggestions from President Mario Draghi today that the bank is ready to trim or end the €60 billion a month stimulus programme early. In fact, Draghi said the ECB has temporarily increased emergency funding to Greek banks by €900m. Thus, the ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay for now and this should in theory put downward pressure on European bond yields, which in turn could depress the euro even further. more…

The FOMC minutes pushed EUR/USD higher Thursday. There is overlap on this advance from the low of 1.0916 and therefore I would treat this upwards move as as small corrective move. I am expecting more downside to complete this minute wave (B) corrective wave. more…

Greeks voted no! without realising the implications of this result. There was not a big reaction on the currency market at the start of trading but the worst is probably still ahead. Market gapped about 100 pips in EUR/USD so nothing major was the result of Greece referendum. My preferred wave count sees this gap low as minuette wave 2. I am looking for bullish upwards move next for this pair and overall strength on Euro. Next upside target is 1.1118 and key levels after that are 1.117 and 1.124 respectively. If this start to decline more, 1.0954 (today’s low) is invalidation level for this wave count. more…

150 pip drop which continued to just over 200 pips on its lowest. This was the result on market open to reflect the news about Greece not getting any more money from taxpayers around Europe. This gap has completely recovered by now and I have labelled this bottom as minute wave B. I am expecting this to start a bullish phase towards new long term highs. This minute wave C of minor wave Y is going to be 5 wave structure and the eventual target for this wave is 1.183. more…

If you did not grow up in North America as I did, you may not be accustomed to the charming tradition of Groundhog Day. The groundhog is a small rodent belonging to the marmot family. On the second of February every year, children all over the continent listen to the traditional story of the groundhog. You see, it is a very timid animal. According to folklore, when the groundhog comes out of hibernation and into the open air, if the weather is sunny it sees its shadow, becomes frightened and goes back into hibernation. I that case winter lasts for another six weeks. If, on the other hand the weather is cloudy, it stays outdoors and spring will come early. more…