This blog is about macro-economics, financial markets and the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.

— Neo: What truth?
— Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo.

2010-11-14

Australian Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Jumps

Those who have been following my posts about Australia and the AUD know that I believe that the AUD has been peaking and that the Australian bubble is also about to pop.

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped in October to a six-month high as the pool of workers and job seekers swelled to a record, easing concern that a labor shortage will drive up wages.

Surprise surprise !!

The jobless rate rose to 5.4 percent last month from 5.1 percent in September, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. That exceeded the median forecast of 5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists. The participation rate, which measures the workforce as a percentage of the population over 15 years old, climbed to 65.9 percent from 65.6 percent.

Not surprised that the participation rate is increasing: people need to pay for the properties they bought at bubble prices...

[...]
The hiring surge threatens to boost inflation, which the central bank aims to keep in a range of 2 percent to 3 percent. The consumer price index in the third quarter rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier, a government report showed last month.

[...]
Stevens said last week that “growth in wages has picked up somewhat” and “some further increase is likely over the coming year.” As a result, he said in a statement after the Nov. 2 rate increase, “the moderation in inflation that has been under way for the past two years is probably now close to ending.”

Lower unemployment is not really inflationary when credit and money is unlimited... On the other hand if there's such a great boom in Australia, it would be normal that wages increase to reflect that gain in wealth, etc. right? Again silly economics...

The RBA, in a quarterly report on Nov. 5, reiterated its forecast that economic growth will strengthen to 3.75 percent by the end of 2011, climbing to 4 percent by the end of 2012. Consumer prices will rise 2.75 percent through June 2012; previously, the RBA had estimated inflation of 3.25 percent through mid-2011.

Australia’s growth is propelled by surging shipments of iron ore and coal to China that are boosting jobs in regions such as Western Australia, even as household demand elsewhere is cooling after seven interest-rate increases since October 2009.

Another major surprise! Who could have known.

[...]Home-building approvals and retail sales were weaker than economists forecast in September, and house-price gains decelerated in the third quarter, reports published last week showed. Consumer confidence declined in November to a five-month low, according to a survey released yesterday.