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FXUS65 KABQ 192335 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are in place with a few high cirrus clouds across the
state and also some fair weather cumulus across the southern tier.
Winds have been gusty this afternoon, but should begin to decrease in
speed shortly after sunset while the cumulus erode. Moderate breezes
will develop on Wednesday afternoon with mostly clear skies
expected. A weak front will enter northeastern New Mexico, but should
only provide a weak shift in the winds Wednesday morning.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty westerly winds will continue until around sunset before
diminishing. Winds are not expected to be as strong Wednesday with
not much change in temperatures. A storm system evolving over the
northern and central Rockies Thursday will remain relatively
stationary through early next week. Gusty winds, cooler temperatures
and showers, and thunderstorms will impact northern and central New
Mexico as a result of this storm system. Even a few nighttime snow
showers over the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo mountains are
expected by early next week. High temperatures will cool to 5 to 10
degrees below average by next Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Gusty west winds not quite at wind advisory levels so far but
inching closer, so will allow the current advisory to continue until
6 pm when it expires. Otherwise, humidities are cratering for most
areas but left a slight chance for a stray storm over the far south
central/southeast tonight where some 40s dewpoints remain and LAPS
indicating a more unstable area.
Winds will not be as strong Wednesday and dry with not much change
in temperatures overall, despite a weak wind shift into the
northeast.
Thursday now appears drier and trimmed pops back, especially in the
morning. Southwest winds will increase though. There is better model
agreement for moisture and chances for precipitation to increase
Friday. Disturbances traversing the upper low/trough circulation may
yo-yo moisture back and forth over the central and east during the
weekend, with the far west having the least chances for
precipitation. High temperatures may tend to yo-yo a bit as well
but day to day trend cooler. A more vigorous cold front is forecast
Monday with highs falling to 5 to 10 degrees below average. A few
nighttime snow showers will be possible by then over the highest
peaks of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Unsettled weather is
possible for most of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue to ramp up through
the remainder of the afternoon across northwest NM. A shortwave
trough crossing the central and northern Rockies will continue to
shift eastward this evening as it drags a dry slot over the area.
Relative humidities have fallen into the single digits in some
places, including ABQ, this afternoon as winds strengthen. The Red
Flag warning is in good shape across Zone 105, but conditions will
likely remain marginal due to the winds across Zone 101. Strong
winds and low RH continue across northeast and east central NM as
well, with Haines values around 5, but higher soil moisture remains
in place due to the abundant rainfall this season. Therefore, still
does not look to be a high impact event for northeast NM.
A weak back door front will slide into NE NM early Wednesday, but
will wash out Wednesday afternoon. It will be a little cooler in
this area, but elsewhere, should be very similar to today. However,
less wind is expected. Humidities will remain below 15 percent
across much of central and western NM though.
A strong upper level trough will develop across the Pac NW Wed and
Thurs and will continue to dive southward into the weekend, inching
closer to NM as it does so. The system may briefly close off over
Utah late in the weekend into early next week, and the system may
not move out of the area until mid week next week. So, initially the
system will bring NM stronger winds once again on Thursday, with
perhaps a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across far
northeast and far northwest NM on Thursday. As the core of the jet
moves over NM on Friday, winds may strengthen further in some areas,
though will become more southerly. These southerly winds will bring
in good Gulf moisture across the plains. This should result in at
least scattered thunderstorms across the plains. The humidities
across the west will trend upward as well, but not as much, and
thunderstorms will be isolated at best.
With the upper level pattern changing little Sunday through the
middle part of next week, the east will remain prime for additional
thunderstorm activity thanks to Gulf moisture continuing to advect
into the area. The west will remain on the drier side initially. One
fly in the ointment will be a back door cold front that will drop
through the plains on Monday, and perhaps push westward through the
gaps of the central mountain chain Monday night. This would tend to
moisten up western NM through mid week.
Vent rates will generally be good to excellent for the next week,
except a few bouts of poor ventilation across far northeast NM on
Wed, Sun and Mon.
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&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ510-512>515-523-529-532>534.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-105.
&&
$$