Sunday, September 18, 2011

For a while
there, given the opportunity to try on the shortstop position for next season,
Trevor Plouffe looked as if it was going to fit him good.

From August
15 to September 3, Plouffe played in 20 games and hit an impressive .316/.365/.506
in 86 plate appearances. The ball was exploding off of his bat and his fielding
was much improved since his early season yips. Unfortunately, since committing
the cardinal sin in baseball – forgetting how
many outs there are – he has fallen into the abyss. From September 4 on,
Plouffe has gone a measly 5-for-43 (.116) in 49 plate appearances and has
committed five errors in the field. Basically, he’s playing like a man about to
lose the job.

"He's scuffled lately at making plays that really we
have to make. And I don't know if he's just relaxed enough, he's comfortable
back up here, he knows he's going to play and lost a little bit of the edge, I
don't know. Because there's been some sloppy, sloppy play out there when he was
going along really, really good and really focused on it. So that just tells
you a little bit about the game up here.

You can't let
your guard down. You're going along, and I don't know if he's done that, I
don't think so. He seems like he's intense and he's doing all of this work, but
he's gotten a little sloppy out there lately, and he knows it."

Scuffling is putting it lightly. Like when your mom says "you are not fat, you are husky."

Defensively,
we have witnessed some seriously lackadaisical play in the field. For example,
on September 14
in Kansas City, with runners on first and third with nobody out, second
baseman Johnny Giavotella chopped one towards Plouffe’s right. Plouffe gobbles
it up on the move and – while still shuffling his feet and fading away from the
play – he throws off-target to Matt Tolbert covering second.

Given the speed
and location that the ball was hit, the likelihood that the ball was going to
result in just one out was high. Plouffe had all the time in the world on this
to get his feet set and make a strong throw to the bag – getting that
all-important first out. Instead, he got lazy and fired one into the outfield. The
Royals scored and were denied a second run on a solid throw home by first baseman
Chris Parmelee (who must have practiced those oh-so-routine throws from behind
the camera well in New Britain).

The defensive
shortcomings are nothing new to Plouffe’s game – after all, he had a poor camp
in the field and his attempts to maim spectators sitting behind first base got
him sent back to Rochester for further Twins Way indoctrination – yet, up until
recently, he provided a decent stick to compensate for those miscues.

While Plouffe’s
sudden offensive decline has little explanation from a data or scouting
standpoint, there are some troubling trends nonetheless that suggest this isn’t
just a BABIP-related slump. His line drive rate has dropped drastically in
September and he is receiving more fastballs in September but isn’t fairing as
well against them as he did in August (-1.4 runs above average in September
versus 1.1 runs above average in August). Aside from seeing more fastballs, pitchers
are targeting the same spots and mechanically he looks the same.

One of the
biggest factors is that Plouffe isn’t pulling the ball as well this month. Take
a look at his hit charts between the two samplings:

While
spreading the ball to all fields is well and good, pulling the ball is where
Plouffe makes his money. So far this season, Plouffe is slugging .679 when he
hits the ball to left and six of his seven home runs have gone out that
direction.

Offensively,
there are signs that there may be sunnier days ahead for Plouffe. Previously, I highlighted
some of the mechanical changes that he made that have given him some added
power. Essentially, by stabilizing his pre-swing bat movement and incorporating
a more violent leg lift/plant, he has been able to drive the ball more
resulting in more fly balls and line drives and fewer ground balls. As such,
Plouffe has smacked a career-high 22 home runs so far in 2011.

Meanwhile, on
the field, Plouffe needs someone to help get him under control. In 2009, the
Milwaukee Brewers hired Willie Randolph in part to help improve the fielding of
the highly talented second baseman Rickie Weeks. Because of Randolph’s tutelage,
Weeks progressed from an error-prone, mistakes machine into a…well, a somewhat
slightly less error-prone player who is now capable of making the routine
plays. His Ultimate Zone Rating went from a -10.3 UZR/150 from 2005 to 2008,
the second worst in baseball, to a much more respectable 4.6 from 2009 to this
season. Perhaps the Twins front office need to have someone like Paul Molitor on-staff
fulltime to guide players like Plouffe and Tsuyoshi Nishioka which may help
them reap the same dividends that it did for the Brewers and Weeks.

Since his dunderheaded play in Anaheim back on
September 4, Plouffe has been the epitome of someone lacking focus and it has
shown both at the plate and in the field. Perhaps starting with that mental
error and compounded by the realization that he is auditioning for a starting
role next year has snowballed into this two week mess for him. Whatever the
reason, Plouffe, like the rest of the Twins, need this season to come to a
merciful close so they can reboot and refocus for 2012.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."