Friday, February 17, 2017

A Re-Energized GUAM Seen Presenting Real Problems for Moscow

Paul
Goble

Staunton, February 17 – As recent
events have shown, the increasing propensity of the former Soviet republics to go
their own way and even to directly oppose the Russian Federation can create
serious problems for Moscow, but a more serious threat is now looming – the possibility
that these countries will create multi-national organizations hostile to
Moscow.

That is the judgment of the editors
of Nezavisimaya gazeta in a lead article today in response to indications that
GUAM – the acronym for Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova who now make it
up – is seeking to make the transition from a talk shop to “a fist” that can
defend them against Russia (ng.ru/editorial/2017-02-17/2_6932_red.html).

“Twenty years ago,” the editors say,
“this structure was created with a pro-Western orientation and several of its
members attempted to develop regional cooperation against Russia, but open opposition
did not suit all of them” and the group was reduced to “a club of friends’ with
summits but without the capacity to act collectively.

Today, however, after the events in
Ukraine and Georgia, some in GUAM are seeking to revive the grouping’s initial
purpose as a union opposed to Russia and as one with close ties to the West and
to Japan, countries that can help GUAM members individually and collectively.

It is worth noting, the paper
continues, that “all the GUAM countries are united by the existence of
conflicts,” in three cases, frozen ones, in one, an ongoing clash.All have unresolved territorial disputes. And
all have a more or less complicated and conflict-ridden relationship with
Russia as a result.

Most GUAM member states or
significant portions of each want to become NATO members. And consequently,
Nezavisimaya gazeta says, if GUAM does take off and become more significant for
its members, then Russia will have “serious problems” and problems that aren’t “somewhere
far away but at its own borders.”