Chase of Postseasons Past

To say Chase Utley is having a rough go of it this postseason would be, well, an understatement. After Thursday’s 1-for-4 in the Phillies’ pivotal Game 5 victory, Utley is hitting just .200/.286/.300 in the 2010 playoffs. His lone extra-base hit was a solo home run in Game 2 of the NLDS against Cincinnati, and all of this goes without mentioning Chase’s normally stellar defense has now taken a turn for the quaky. Suffice to say, Chase’s lack of production is concerning.

We’ll leave speculation as to any potential lingering health issues for those more expert in diagnosing such things, and instead look at what makes this 2010 postseason so different for Chase.

Respect once again to the crew at Baseball Analytics for their superb analytical tool and the production of these super spiffy graphics. But before we get to the eye candy, a straight-up look at Utley’s slash stats for the 2008, 2009 and 2010-to-date playoffs.

Obviously, Chase is at a full series’ worth of games’ disadvantage on ’08 and ’09, and none of these is fully representative of The Man. But this goes beyond the numbers (which are still concerning, small sample and all), because something about Chase just seems off. Well, it does to me, at least.

The first red flag is Chase’s diminished slugging, sitting at a tidy, robust .300, piggybacking on the regular season, when Chase posted a .445 SLG, lowest since his rookie year. Let’s take a look at some of those pretty heat maps now, eh? These are Utley’s SLG on balls in play by pitch location in the postseason.

Top row: 2008, 2009
Bottom row: 2010

There are a couple of interesting things to note here. As 2008 and 2009’s maps show us, Chase cared very little for pitchers trying to paint the outside corner. From the outer third of the plate to the furthest extent of Utley’s balls in play, Chase slugged .560 and .938 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In 2010, that number plummets to .188, reestablishing the outer edge of the plate as a zone of attack for opposing pitchers. Chase it still putting those outside pitches in play, but is barely inflicting any damage.

Another pattern evident in previous postseasons is Chase’s patience for the fastball. Chase drew 23 unintentional walks in the ’08 and ’09 playoffs, getting himself on base even when his balls in play didn’t fall, making himself effective in ’08 despite the .220 average. When Chase did get a pitch to hit – a fastball anywhere in the strike zone – he made pitchers pay. Utley’s SLG on fastballs in the zone in the last three sets of playoff series:

2008: .9412009: 1.2862010: .222

The Phillies have gotten this far by way of their pitching muscle and a few timely hits, but they’re going to need their franchise second baseman to step up if they want to keep playing.

Disclaimer: I am not advocating trading Chase Utley in any way, shape or form, as a notable radio host seems to advocate considering. That’s lunacy. Just dissecting a cold streak, that’s all. Also, photo of Chase via the AP.

For me, it wasn’t the play last night where he couldn’t get it over to Halladay, it was the next one. (For the 3rd out.) After fielding it cleanly, he was extra careful, took his time, and then almost threw it into the Phillies dugout – a lunging grab by Ryan was the only thing that separated Chase from another error. That play bothered me.

8 is better, except Cliff Lee gets more rest before he faces us in game 1.
A 4PM start means Cliff tires himself out in game 7, which means he probably can’t pitch against us in game 1 of the World Series.

I wouldn’t advocate shopping Utley, but if the right deal came along anyone should be available on the trade market…especially a guy on the downside of his career. Let’s face it, putting aside all the warm & fuzzy memories of 2008, most of this current team falls into that category. I don’t know what kind of player Utley will be by 2013 (making $15 million a year), but it sure looks like his best years are behind him. It’s always better to move a guy a year early than a year too late.

For me, it wasn’t the play at first where he threw it past Halladay, (nice backup by Chooch), but the one right after that. (For the 3rd out.) After fielding it cleanly, he almost threw it into the Phillies dugout – only a lunging grab by Ryan separated Chase from another error. That play bothered me. It was like he was having a hard time believing he could make an easy throw to first. I haven’t checked the other threads to see if anyone had comment on that play, or any theories as to what is going on in Chase’s head.

His power numbers were down, sure, but there’s hardly a multi-year trend working here. There’s no chance – none, absolutely zero – that you get fair value in return in a trade. Not worth it, and not practical anyway.

And frankly, has not been the same player since. There have been flashes at times of the old Utley. However, those that have watched him over the past 2 years don’t know if he’ll ever put up those numbers again.

His slugging percentage went from .566 in 2007 to .508 last year to .445 this year.

Maybe it’s all those HBP, or the fact that he’s the type of player that wears down because he plays at full-tilt.

Whatever the reason, at 32 next year, it’s difficult to imagine him totally regaining that old form.

I guarantee that thumb is hurting him. probably not the only thing either. I have a very similar thumb tendon injury that i am dealing with right now. I hurt it a few months back and I figured it would hurt for about a week or so but It still hurts today just as much as the day it happened. It really lingers. and just thinking about gripping a bat and the contact made how it would jolt it makes me cringe. I am telling you most other players wouldn’t even be out there.

Rangers look like they don’t want to waste Lee tomorrow. 1-0 bottom 4.
8pm is best for me anyway.

IMO- Who cares who’s been worse, both Utley and Howard have to come up big now, or they’re going to be on a golf course soon. Ruiz,Vic and the rest of the guys have held the ship steady, now it’s time for the stars to shine on the big stage.

Ryan H – I have had multiple hand and arm surgeries. Hands,arms are some of the toughest parts of the body to heal. I know first hand (get it) how it feels.

That noted, they are ballplayers, they make a living with their bodies, they have to look at the example set by Doc Halladay and play through it. They don’t get to cringe, they get paid to swing hard and bear the pain so long as it can do no further structural damage. I assume Chase has been cleared by medical staff to play, so play well.

I think Chase problems lie in the fact that he wants to win so bad that he tries to do everything. He does everything he can to be a leader on the team. When things aren’t going well for the team he tries to over complicate the game by trying to hard. He needs to stop TRYING to be the man, relax, and realize that when he just plays he is the man.

Phillistein has it right. Utley hasn’t been the same player since the hip surgery.

If you look at the numbers and watch him play the past two years, it’s clearly evident what the problem is.

He doesn’t drive the ball the other way anymore. The only way he generates any power is by pulling pitches on the inner half. That works sometimes if he gets that pitch.

But when he gets a fastball on the outer half of the plate, he can’t do anything with it. Vintage Chase would drive it the other way for a single, double, whatever. Now, he tries to pull everything and is rolling over pitches to second base.

That color graphic above says it all. His only power zone is down-and-in pitches. Almost everything esle, he’s rolling over and grounding out weakly.

He’s one of my favorite players. But we have to fave facts: the guy’s a .270 hitter with average power. Not sure that’s worth the salary.

Maybe I am in the minority here but the only “old” players on the Phils are Raul and Jose. I think Chase has some terrific years left in him and we have not seen the best he has. Same with Jimmy although 07 could have been his best.. 32 is NOT old.

Brooks- I agree with you 100%. Raul, I wouldn’t mind seeing him go. I think chase still has a few good years left in him. He hasn’t been the same since his injuries, which, and I could be wrong, but I think it has contributed to his problems. Give him a few months to rest in the off season and he’ll come back better than ever.

Before this season started, I was ‘frothing at the mouth’ about the prospects of seeing everyone hit for their potential, even their averages. Chase at about .300 with 20-25 hrs, Jimmy at .290 maybe close to 20 hrs, Vic .285-.290, Howard .275-.280 with 40-45 hrs, 130 (+) rbi, Werth .280 30 and 90 rbi – not even including Poly, Chooch or Raul – no one had to be outstanding, they all are outstanding! Honestly, that is why for the first time I purchased a FSP (I wound up getting 5 partial season plans) –

I still have high hopes for next year, even if Jayson does go on. OK, so I am a ‘Homer’

Brooks i agree with you…this old ish is a little played out…(slightly exaggerated) Jamie Moyer? anyone….This is baseball not something highly intensive like football…as long as one is in decent shape, eyes work well and no injuries or an accumulation of prior injuries i think age has little do with it..now of course this is within reason…not expecting a 59 year old to be out there…Fact besides Werth and Chooch…everyone of starters is on a downward spiral this year…how or why is this i dont know..even Shane an he is only 29 i believe….

Agreed bacardi – Jamie Moyer – phenom.
THe entire team had a power melt, most of them their averages slipped as well and still, they won the NL East because the bats showed just enough, especially at the end to compliment the best pitching staff in Baseball today.

Kate, even if we do lose to Lee – it wont be that bad, after all, its only 1 or 2 games.

Anyone who thinks Utley is a problem, I want you to keep in mind in a season where he saw an awful batting slump for a month from May 17 to mid June, and when he missed nearly 2 months due to an injury which inherently requires it to linger past the time he returns, and by seeing his SLG fall to its lower level since his rookie year, the man still put up a 5+ win season. A 5+WIN SEASON. ARE YOU KIDDDING ME?! He is not mortal.

IF we make it that far, didn’t we know it was destiny we’d face Lee? Didn’t we know the day we traded him that he’d be our nemisis in the WS? I felt it all along, I just thought he’d be moved to the Yankees and that would be the AL champ.

And I don’t think Cliff is superman, very very close, but not superman. He can be beaten, he’s overdue to be beaten in the postseason.
SAID!

It’s the same thing with Trolls, sometimes they are even planted by the site themsleves, NOT SAYING PN DOES THAT!!!, but it’s very effective in building the negative. What’s the motive? Advertising likes to see lots of hits. If one troll can cause 20-30 comments on a board, it’s good for business.

I honestly think that we need to wait and see what Utley does next year. Same with Rollins. Rollins didn’t have a chance to get into any kind of groove or rhythm this season.

Utley’s struggles are just a little more worrisome, but again, I think he deserves the chance of a completely healthy 2011 to get himself back in the game.

I know they’re getting older and for Howard, he might be having an off-season, but his numbers are still up there. I think he’s just fallen into the trap of trying to up his hitting for average numbers rather than hitting for power.

Utley/Rollins are starting to give me a Trammell/Whitakerish type vibe. They both may be just have turned the corner off their peaks but they’re still damn good. Gotta get Utley into the outfield soon, somehow.

Utley gets banged around a lot….he gets hit by pitches, his hand is sore, he plays real hard and he may need a nice long off-season to heal and an occasional day off during the regular season to keep sharp and let his body heal.

Package D. Brown and Raul (eat his contract if necessary) together for a young, top-flight second baseman.

Resign Jayson at whatever cost the Phillies can get away with (can’t be cheap with the guy). Backload the contract so that when Lidge and Ibanez come off the books after next year it makes sense for both sides.

Put Chase in left.

Ben Fran is still the 4th OF, spelling Chase every 5 games against tough lefties.

Say goodbye to the 2010 season for the Phils. Lots of fun and lots of thrills. We are an old team in dire need of rebuilding. The Giants are simply too good. Our offense is really pathetic. Amaro will rue the day he signed Howard early to all that money. It will kill us in future years.

This offense was the downfall all season long. Bottom line. They never got anything going. We scored two runs in the first and nothing the rest. Chance after chance. amazing. Why not pitch around green card and pitch to edgar who cant hit. all this pitching we have and we lose. good for you fox. texas and san fran. you have nobody watching. GO G MEN

Not trying to be a d ick matt but just frustrated by the way the phils are playing because were way better than san fran we just aren’t playing like it and it’s prolly werth ladt game as a phillie which I’m mad over I respect you keeping that faith it’s hard with the way the phils are playing right now.

Wow, ARod goes down last night to end it looking, Howard goes down tonite looking to end it, and MLB has an absolutely pathetic World Series to look forward to. But I’m glad Cliff Lee will get a ring, and maybe Josh Hamilton will be the MVP.

If Lee wins the WS, I have a feeling he’ll go back to Texas even for slightly less $$ – as long as they can go general market.

I hope the Phils will ante up and find a way to re-sign Werth…they need his skills now more than ever.

Really though ryan was gonna come through there can’t believe he struck out here’s to a season of ups and downs that didn’t end the way we wanted but non the less still a fun season go rangers give then an a s s kickin.

I have a ton of respect for the Phillies team, very impressive series. For you whiners tho, all i can say is learn what it is to be a real fan. i hope all the moves you asked for about your team come true and all you’re has beens come here to SF – they will be welcomed with open arms. Congrats to the Phillies for a fine season.

Actually, I’m hoping for the sake of the Rangers organization that they do win the World Series. Lee is more likely to stay around and Nolan Ryan and company can really start building something in that organization.

Disgraceful–holding Jimmy at 3rd on the double by Howard. Not stealing with Victorino or Jimmy in the 8th or 9th. Francisco with an awful at bat with Ibanez on 3rd and 1 out. Lack of aggression, lack of execution–Cholly has way too much confidence in his guys.

Giants deserved to win, Phillies deserved the loss, this an awesome website make one for the EAGLES though lol. Next year pitching together and gotta hope offense bounces back… In fact DIDNT LIDGE AND HAMELS, THE BIGGEST PIECES OF 08, BOUNCE BACK, now offense biggest piece in 09 is gonna bounce back

I only wish that Howard would have gone down swinging rather then taking a pitch almost down the middle. At least he would have had one more cut at it. 🙁 I still love the Phillies but I’ll be rooting for Cliff Lee on Wednesday. That’s about as close to having the Phillies in the World Series as we can get.

Bart Shart – what odds are you giving on Phils being a 500 team next year? C’mon, get real…with the pitching and the lack of competition in the NL East, they’ll be fine. Halladay and Oswalt want a championship the most and they’ll lead the way.

If the Phils don’t re-sign Werth, I’d love to see if Amaro can figure out a way to get Cliff Lee to return – but if the Rangers win the series, I don’t think it would happen.

Desibrave – normally I’d root for the National League, but no way in this situation. I’d like to thank Brooks Conrad for also helping make this last week a miserable one.

how bout them phils? those of us on the braves board had phillies trolls coming over and posting all of september about what a DYNASTY philly was. some dynasty. i mean, really. they didnt even bother showing up, did they? we played the giants much better than yall did. and we had like 6 key injuries from august on. dynasty…too funny. eat it, you obnoxious jerks.

Jay – I agree with you that AT&T Park is a baseball hellhole. That said, Josh Hamilton can bomb them out of any park and unlike Howard, he’s doing it in these playoffs. (And this for a guy that played almost none of September rehabbing from injury). Ryan should take lessons.

Texas will destroy the Giants. There offense is a machine. They are aggresive. The Giants cant score runs. Vic dropped that ball. Giving up a single to the pitcher. Bruce pulling his pitchers early. STRANGE. The Rangers will destroy them. Ryan Howard will be licking that contract. He is starting his decline. Teams now know how to pitch them. Ever since spy gate our bats went north.

I could see Sweeney retiring after this year. I think the issue is he really can only play 1B. They’re probably looking for a guy who can do a little more, considering Ryan pretty much plays every game.

This NL East is going to be BANGING the next few years. I can see the Nats making a good run within the next few years as well. They’re building a good club for the future and when Strasburg comes back… Wow.

With the Phils eliminated I am not planing to watch the WS; just passive interest. Who gives a hoot about Burrell and Rowand anyway?

It is a shame that this game and this series ended in the situation where the umpire took the bat out of the player’s (Howard) hands. Borderline pitch but you have to swing at anything near the strike zone with two strikes on you.

An anemic offense with three or four big stars failing to come through in this series and what in the world happened to Ruiz, Mr. October? No big hits like in the past post-seasons but it is all over the dam now. Utley and Howard’s second half of the season injuries might have come back and haunt this team more than anyone realizes.

You guys had another good year. Hopefully, we’ll be able to compete next year. I’m sure it sucks now but at least you got this far. Ryan Howard brought back memories of Beltran in 06. Gotta swing the bat.

Tim McCarver’s all smiles!!! That guy has disliked the Phillies for years. Has anyone listened to him when he announces a Phiiles game? If it wasn’t for Steve Carlton … he wouldn’t have been able to put a catcher’s mit on.

it is easy to take shots at the offense, but lets take a look at were two of our loses came from, the bullpen. If we actually had some reliable arms other that Contreas, Lidge and Madson would Oswalt have to pitch in game 5? Would Madson have to throw 2 innings? We Durbin even have a uniform?

I agree AC … if the Phillies hit like the Rangers … we’d be playing them in the World Series. And, for someone to say the Giant’s pitching is better is foolish. The have better strters then the Giants … I think their only weakness is in the bull pen.

so, the giants don’t belong on the same field as the phillies ?!? No honey !, the phillies don’t belong on the same field with the giants !!!! ha !! ha ! ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeh, Kate, Chooch was far from the same offensive player in this NLCS than he was in the regular season; looked confused and lost up there. Umps took two of these games from the Phillies but no excuses, it is on the Phils offense.

Thanks to Charlie, Giants get home field, so I’m saying Rangers in FIVE. Cliff Lee will smoke them in Game 1. Cliff Lee would have smoked US in Game 1. 2010 Cliff Lee might have even smoked us if he was pitching Game 1 back in 2008.

Look, 3 of the 4 Giants wins came with 3 runs, 4 runs and 3 runs scored. It’s clearly all on the Phils offense. Now the 6-5 Giants win, that’s on the bullpen as the Phils lead 4-2. But other than that, it’s pathetic that the phils couldn’t outscore the Giants in those games.

Ryan Howard is right about Hallion, but somebody else should say it. He’s in no position to complain about anything given his play with runners on base and in scoring position. A bunch of singles for a $125mm man doesn’t cut it.

Think we can bamboozle St. Louis into the Howard for Pujols swap if Phils throw in some salary $$? LOL 😉

The big debate now will be if Charlie should have pitched Halliday in game 4 instead of Blanton and Oswalt in game 5, also on short rest. Also playing Francisco against righties Lincecum and Cain instead of Ibanez due to Raul slumping in the series.

Since i wont be watching a minute of it no need to make a prediction.
but the Rangers will kill them.
the Phillies would have beat the Rangers too.
But like I was telling anyone who would listen for a month. The Phillies dont want the Giants. Its a terrible match up for the Phillies.
Gee I guess it mattered who we played. duh

For all you killing me about Howie. 56 postseason bats and 30 of them ended in a strikeout. 125 million dollar man. plus tonight he keeps the bat on his shoulder. this team is old and have traded all there pieces away. we all cried when lee got traded and now he is back in the world series. raul is done….werth gone…utley looks horrible. howard is horrible. rollins is finished. poly breaking down. bullpen is a mess. just bring in lefties and we lose. 2 runs in the first. sanchez got yanked. there bullpen destroyed us. thats why texas wins big. outside of the freak they will just pull there pitchers.

Andrew, I am sure Polanco was bother quite a bit by that elbow. I am sure it affected his power. It is hard to measure how all the injuries affected Polanco, Rollins, Utley and Howard in this series. Clearly, Utley and Howard were not all the way back from theirs’.

It is clear that something has to done to improve the hitting so they can overcome teams like the Giants who have good pitching.

the phils will need a righty bat no way we can rely on francisco and ibanez platooning and i don’t know about brown you guys think he’s major league ready?he needs to work on plate disipline…i really hope they surprise us and move ibanez and someone else and bring werth back i’m sure werth would do anything to come back to philly,but he wants to get paid which i respect he’s earned it…we need to get a better bench too gload did nothing and why did cholly not give sweeny a chance?did sweeney even have a post season ab?alot of shoulda coulda woulda but it’s over.

Guess what jeff, if it makes you feel better, you won tonight!
The rest of us wanted to win another championship, but you’re happier this way I guess, you got the last laugh. We lose, you win! Happy now?

The thing is, that Phillies Big 3 wasn’t so big in this series from my view. They were good, but not exactly dominant like I remember reading on here that they would be. Actually, it was a fact by some that they would be dominant and take the team all the way.

Ibanez is the one guy who if they can trade him, do it. But I think they’ll have to eat a ton of salary to do so.

Polanco is the best 3rd baseman we’ve had in years – he played with bone chips in the elbow all year and still was one of the leading hitters on the team. get the surgery in the offseason, he’ll be fine.

Jroll and Utley have earned the right to have another go at things next year…hopefully they’ll stay healthy; Valdez is excellent insurance – keep him.

I don’t think Brown is ready for full time yet, I’d really like Amaro to figure out some way to keep Werth.

bravoman the hitting let the phils down moron didn’t you see oswalt in game 2?how about halladay pitching with an injury and still winning?the game we lost the pitching wasn’t bad the hitting was a big let down for me.

Now I’m even sicker for Sweeney. He doesn’t want to take his uniform off because he doesn’t know if he’ll be playing anywhere next year. He’s not sure if the other guys realize the magnitude of how special it is here in Philly and it’s tough.

Make it impossible.
Unless you deal one of them ( not Hlladay hamels or oswalt). Which I would like. Get younger and free up salary to pay werth.
Who was the best player on the roster during the playoffs
when it mattered most
Free up money

I’m thinking they’ll be finding some way to platoon Brown with someone else unless pigs fly sometime in the off-season and Werth signs with the Phillies. Which is why they’d be reluctant to let go of Ibanez. Maybe they’ll think about platooning Ibanez with Francisco and then in 2012 if all goes well, Francisco takes over full-time. By then Brown should be ready (if not sooner) to take sole possession of right field.

happy lefty???? i sat upstairs in my room crying. thats how happy i was. i love this team. i root my a s s off for this team to win everynight. 162 games this season i rooted. playoffs. yes, i am not a howard fan. never was never will. i hated when they gave him all that money. took his hunger away. pitchers in baseball have learned how to pitch him. when utley walked i turned to my wife and said its over. i knew howard would come up small. he is not paid to hit singles, or doubles. to drive in runs. i do not plan to sleep tonight. i give the giants credit but they should of never beat us. we were the better team…by far.

BravoMan – go roll some balls between your legs, a la Brooks Conrad. At least the Big 3 had plenty of dominance against your “anemic” braves. Your collapse of 7 games up wasn’t as quick as the Mets, but nonetheless, I’m sure you enjoyed watching the Phils fly past your team in 60 days, from 7 back to 6 up – 13 game swing.

I’ve never seen such attention starved fans in all my life like the Philly fans. Torres pulls up hurt diving into 1st base and needed to take a few quick laps to see if he was good to go and the Philly fans boo in disgust because somebody is taking a few seconds of them and their teams attention. Just like a bunch of children when mommy spends a second with little Tommy.

@AC It hurt like Hell doesn’t it ?!? Like I said, the phillies could win 14 divisions and still have 1 world series win like the braves. That in itself is music to my ears !! Ce-le-brate good times, come on !!!

AC, or like Utley. He let some go through his legs and he’s a MLB EVERYDAY PLAYER, not a career minor leaguer forced into action because of injuries.

The Braves will be very good next year and for years to come. We’re getting younger with Heyward, Prado, McCann, Freeman, Kimbrel, Venters, Hanson and the list goes on. The Phillies are getting old and fast.

Can Mike Sweeney become the pinch hitting specialist that Greg Dobbs was in 2008? I’d like to see some way of keeping him around…I think he’d take a very small salary just to stick around and get another shot.

One last thing….I told you Jonathan Sanchez was a little beeyatch. Utley did nothing wrong and the moron starts talking smack because he’s got a huge chip on his shoulder. I sided with Utley on that. Sanchez sucks anyways.

Jeff I live in Maryland. Never lived in Philly, but have been a fan as long as I can remember. My dad’s family was from Atlantic City, he drove us up to games all the time. Bought me a long range radio when i was young to listen.

cool. i started off a yankees fan. 6 and 7 years old. my grandfather worked at the vet. i started going to see the games when he worked. watching rose and michael jack switched me over. i would say i was about 9 years old. rooted ever since.

It is evident that Howard never made it all the way back from that sprained ankle and/or it threw his hitting timing off but I wished that someone, somewhere over the off-season would work with him and get him to improve his hitting against breaking pitches. The guy just strikes out too much. Still needs to work on his fielding too.

I had a feeling that this game was going to be decided in the late innings with a home run or two and I hated seeing guys like Torres, Sanchez and Uribe come up as the game progressed because I knew that they can pop one out from time to time. Madsen is a good relief pitcher but is prone to having someone catch up to his pitches from time to time letting up the occasional dinger, and the rest is history.

Have a great off-season, Phillies bloggers and fans! Enjoyed all the postings on here all season long. The Phillies are still our guys and we all know that the ending of the series might have been a different story had the offense hit up to their potential.

MikeB and AC, “Howd You Doin” ?!? I never said I was a giant fan ! My World Series is seeing you guys CHOKE !!!!! Get the chicken bone out of your throats !! Hee ! Hee ! Ce-le-brate good times, come on !!