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FXAK69 PAFG 221424
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
524 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019
.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern is expected into next week along the
west coast as a series systems move northward through the Bering
Sea. A strong ridge of high pressure will build north over the
Interior over the weekend resulting is a relatively quiet weather
pattern for the Interior through much of next week.
Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge that stretches from Prudhoe Bay to
Bristol Bay is currently the dominant feature over much of the
area. A shortwave trough will move north along the west side of
the ridge today before turning east as it moves over the top of
the ridge on Saturday. Saturday night the ridge over the Interior
will intensify, with the ridge currently expected to persist
through much of next week. The next shortwave trough will move
north through the Bering Sea on Sunday, with several additional
shortwaves expected to move north through the Bering next week.
Central and Eastern Interior: A weather front that is associated
with a low in the Bering Sea will bring chances for snowfall this
evening into early Saturday to areas north and west of Fairbanks.
Any snow accumulation is expected to be light, generally under an
inch. The ridge will build north and and strengthen Saturday
night, with the ridge expected to persist for most of next week.
With this ridge in place, we currently aren`t anticipating any
precipitation for the Interior Saturday night through the end of
next week. For the Interior, the main forecast challenge will be
temperatures. A warming trend is expected over the next few days
with warmer air aloft moving north; however, it seems like a lot
of the guidance is a bit too warm on the temperatures, especially
in valley locations, such as Fairbanks, where we will have to
overcome a strong inversion that will develop overnight.
West Coast and Western Interior: A front associated with a low
moving north over eastern Russia will bring strong winds, snow
and blowing snow to the west coast today into tonight. 6 to 12
inches of snow is expected to fall over the southern half of the
Seward Peninsula as well as in the upslope areas of zones 208 and
217 with this system. With temperatures warming aloft, there is a
chance that freezing rain could mix in with the snow tonight into
early Saturday from the Bering Strait south. The strong winds
will not get a chance to die down before a second low moves north
through the Bering Sea on Saturday into Saturday night. The
inherited Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for
the west coast look to be in good shape. In addition, I opted to
add a Winter Storm Warning for zone 210 for expected heavy
snowfall, especially in the preferred upslope areas in the
southern part of the zone. The winds will die down on Sunday.
Another low will move north through the Bering Sea Sunday night;
however, at this point, the models disagree on the exact track of
the low. An unsettled pattern is expected to continue for the
west coast for most of next week.
North Slope and Brooks Range: The pressure gradient will tighten
up across the Brooks Range as a trough strengthens on the north
side of the range this evening. This will cause gusty southerly
gap winds to develop resulting in blowing snow. The strongest
winds are expected to the west of the Dalton Highway. The winds in
the Brooks Range will die down Saturday evening. A front will
bring snowfall as is moves from west to east across the Arctic
Coast tonight into Saturday. Up to two inches of accumulation is
expected.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong south winds will cause
sea levels to rise along the West Coast south of the Bering
Strait tonight into Saturday. We will need to keep an eye on this
for potential flooding south of the Bering Strait Saturday, with
the Yukon Delta as the most vulnerable spot.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ217.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ212-AKZ214.
Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&
$$
FEB 19