I don't know when Nadal will start playing again exactly, but obviously Ferrer could get some points in the pre-AO hardcourt season. Doha, Brisbane, that kind of stuff. Don't know if Nadal will play those, so maybe Ferrer can make the difference there. Although I do remember him losing to Monfils last year in Doha so he won't have too many point to defend there..

Not really. You've got to beat Djokovic to win the AO regardless. Doesn't matter if you meet him the QF, SF or F. And if Nadal meets Federer in the QF its a great draw for Nadal. Draws mean nothing. The best player wins in the end. Plus I think Nadal would like to see Ferrer reach the top 4.

Not really. You've got to beat Djokovic to win the AO regardless. Doesn't matter if you meet him the QF, SF or F. And if Nadal meets Federer in the QF its a great draw for Nadal. Draws mean nothing. The best player wins in the end. Plus I think Nadal would like to see Ferrer reach the top 4.

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Would Nadal rather:

Have to meet Fed in the semis and Djok or Murray in the Final

or

Have to meet Djokovic in the quarters, Murray in the semis and Fed in the Final?

Have to meet Djokovic in the quarters, Murray in the semis and Fed in the Final?

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Well, Nadal needs to be physically fresh to beat Djokovic on a hardcourt more than any other opponent. The only hardcourt slam final Nadal ever won over Djokovic was 2010 US Open when Nadal cruised through the first 6 rounds like never before.

So he'd rather face Djokovic in the QF than any other round. So I'd say scenario 2 would be ADVANTAGE NADAL.

I don't know when Nadal will start playing again exactly, but obviously Ferrer could get some points in the pre-AO hardcourt season. Doha, Brisbane, that kind of stuff. Don't know if Nadal will play those, so maybe Ferrer can make the difference there. Although I do remember him losing to Monfils last year in Doha so he won't have too many point to defend there..

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No he can't. Ferrer's already got too many small tournament results to count, so winning Doha and/or Brisbane won't add a single point to his tally (in fact, he won in Auckland at the very start of the year, and this result isn't counted in his total number of points).

Nadal can lose a few points, though (not that many, ie 240 max, but this might be enough depending on how many Ferrer gains in the DC final--I didn't do the maths).

Nadal could perfectly be ranked 5 or 6 in june and finish next year as no. 1 if he wins Wimbledon and the USO.

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Yep, and in that scenario (Nadal winning Wimbledon and US Open) Federer will fall some by losing Wimbledon, Murray can't gain anything unless he wins 2 slams (and will lose by not winning the US Open), and Djokovic can't gain unless he makes the Wimbledon final.

Yep, and in that scenario (Nadal winning Wimbledon and US Open) Federer will fall some by losing Wimbledon, Murray can't gain anything unless he wins 2 slams (and will lose by not winning the US Open), and Djokovic can't gain unless he makes the Wimbledon final.

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murray can pick up rank points in masters too dont forget..he didnt win any of the 9 masters tournys this year..and is capable of winning some and adding rank points...

nadal has that atp 500 clay tourny in acapulco he had added as he tweaks his schedule, and i suppose depending on how he feels a 250 event on clay before that..i think ferrer hoovered up some points in this bit of the tour in 2012.

Yep, and in that scenario (Nadal winning Wimbledon and US Open) Federer will fall some by losing Wimbledon, Murray can't gain anything unless he wins 2 slams (and will lose by not winning the US Open), and Djokovic can't gain unless he makes the Wimbledon final.

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For the year end ranking of next year, it won't really matter what is to gain and what is to lose. It's just a matter of who has the best 2013 of course. Nadal has as much chance to be that guy as Murray or Federer has.

I don't know when Nadal will start playing again exactly, but obviously Ferrer could get some points in the pre-AO hardcourt season. Doha, Brisbane, that kind of stuff. Don't know if Nadal will play those, so maybe Ferrer can make the difference there. Although I do remember him losing to Monfils last year in Doha so he won't have too many point to defend there..

1. nadal will lose 150 points because of last years final
2. ferrer can gain a maximum of 75 points per victory = 150.
3. nadal could lose his doha 90 points
4. doesn't matter whether ferrer does defend auckland or not, he's won already enough other non-counting 250's

that would be enough to make the difference (ferrer would lead by 390-365 = 25 points). !BUT! if nadal drops his 90 doha points, he could add 45 from halle which did not count so far.

-> ferrer is at best -20 before the AO starts and can't overtake nadal.

Well, Nadal needs to be physically fresh to beat Djokovic on a hardcourt more than any other opponent. The only hardcourt slam final Nadal ever won over Djokovic was 2010 US Open when Nadal cruised through the first 6 rounds like never before.

So he'd rather face Djokovic in the QF than any other round. So I'd say scenario 2 would be ADVANTAGE NADAL.

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If this was at a Halloween Party, whoever dressed up as Nadal did a very good job. Looks just like him!

Well, Nadal needs to be physically fresh to beat Djokovic on a hardcourt more than any other opponent. The only hardcourt slam final Nadal ever won over Djokovic was 2010 US Open when Nadal cruised through the first 6 rounds like never before.

So he'd rather face Djokovic in the QF than any other round. So I'd say scenario 2 would be ADVANTAGE NADAL.

Well, Nadal needs to be physically fresh to beat Djokovic on a hardcourt more than any other opponent. The only hardcourt slam final Nadal ever won over Djokovic was 2010 US Open when Nadal cruised through the first 6 rounds like never before.

So he'd rather face Djokovic in the QF than any other round. So I'd say scenario 2 would be ADVANTAGE NADAL.

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Woosh. That was the actual point going right over your head.

Def didn't help matters with that example though either.

As #4 seed, he could play #5 to #8 in the QF, before playing #1 or #2 in the SF, and then playing #1 or #2 in the F.
As #5 seed, he could play #1 to #4 in the QF, before playing #1 to #2 in the SF, and then playing #1 or #2 in the F.

So say Nadal is #4 seed. He can get any of Ferrer, and then Djokovic and Federer in either order in the SF and F.
But if Nadal is #5 seed, he can get Murray, Djokovic and Federer in any order in the QF, SF, and F.

Yes it is. Federer in his 30s finished in the top 3 every single time. Prime nadal is struggling to stay in the top 4. :lol:

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So are you saying if a player missed 6 months of competition its an achievement if you overtake him in the rankings?

Federer is a machine, and Nadal has never been physically comparable. You are just finding out now? Nadal has been injury-prone since day one. Although Nadal has won at least one slam per year for 8 years in a row (tied the record this year), and will make it 9 next year, so that's WINNING longevity. Federer's longevity is more related to reaching QFs.

As #4 seed, he could play #5 to #8 in the QF, before playing #1 or #2 in the SF, and then playing #1 or #2 in the F.
As #5 seed, he could play #1 to #4 in the QF, before playing #1 to #2 in the SF, and then playing #1 or #2 in the F.

So say Nadal is #4 seed. He can get any of Ferrer, and then Djokovic and Federer in either order in the SF and F.
But if Nadal is #5 seed, he can get Murray, Djokovic and Federer in any order in the QF, SF, and F.

So would Nadal rather play Ferrer, Federer, and then Djokovic?

Or would he rather play Murray, Federer, and then Djokovic?

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Both Ferrer and Murray have beaten Nadal at the AO and USO, but Ferrer takes more energy out of Nadal than Murray does. So I'd rather Nadal play Murray in the QF. QF is the most physically impactive round of a slam. Can't produce your best tennis in the SF/F if your legs are shot in the QF.

So are you saying if a player missed 6 months of competition its an achievement if you overtake him in the rankings?

Federer is a machine, and Nadal has never been physically comparable. You are just finding out now? Nadal has been injury-prone since day one. Although Nadal has won at least one slam per year for 8 years in a row (tied the record this year), and will make it 9 next year, so that's WINNING longevity. Federer's longevity is more related to reaching QFs.

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Holmes: Really? I didn't realise. For a moment I thought that Federer had reached far more Major finals than Ralph.

So are you saying if a player missed 6 months of competition its an achievement if you overtake him in the rankings?

Federer is a machine, and Nadal has never been physically comparable. You are just finding out now? Nadal has been injury-prone since day one. Although Nadal has won at least one slam per year for 8 years in a row (tied the record this year), and will make it 9 next year, so that's WINNING longevity. Federer's longevity is more related to reaching QFs.

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The only thing that is sure to happen for Nadal in 2013 is that he will turn 27.