DIE - REDES - Comunicaciones en Congresos y otros eventoshttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/27262015-08-02T20:27:15Z2015-08-02T20:27:15ZSimulating scenarios and prediction intervals in wind power forecasting with the Beta distributionJaramillo Duque, ÁlvaroSánchez, IsmaelCastronuovo, Edgardo D.Usaola, Juliohttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/157902013-09-30T16:44:28Z2009-04-01T00:00:00ZSimulating scenarios and prediction intervals in wind power forecasting with the Beta distribution
Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro; Sánchez, Ismael; Castronuovo, Edgardo D.; Usaola, Julio
A methodology for the simulation of the wind power scenario for a short term horizon (one or two days in advance) is proposed. The covariance of the historical errors and the wind power forecast are use to generate a conditional random variable that represent the power wind production as a scenario. With the information provided by the scenario simulation, the energy deviation during a period and the prediction interval for each hour are obtained. The Beta distribution is used to represent the behaviour of the wind power production due to its better performance. With the results, it is possible to quantify the uncertainty of wind energy production. Finally, comparing the covariance and correlation of the simulated errors with historical errors, the procedure of the methodology is validated.
Proceedings of: 11th Spanish-Portuguese Conference on Electrical Engineering (XICHLIE), 1-4 Julio 2009, Zaragoza (España)
2009-04-01T00:00:00ZAlternatives of Revenue for Corrective Actions of Wind Generators in a Delegated DispatchCastronuovo, Edgardo D.Usaola, Juliohttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/27442014-04-08T09:36:01Z2007-05-01T00:00:00ZAlternatives of Revenue for Corrective Actions of Wind Generators in a Delegated Dispatch
Castronuovo, Edgardo D.; Usaola, Julio
Face to critical contingence situations, the System Operator can require wind farms output reductions. The zonal Delegated Dispatches can act as interface between the System Operator and the producers, allowing a faster and accurate answer. Three probable approaches are mathematically formulated and analyzed in the paper, separately considering the controllability and the possibility of disconnecting the wind farms. The methods are testedand compared by using a realistic test network, extracted from the Spanish national network.
2007-05-01T00:00:00ZBidding wind energy under uncertaintyUsaola, JulioAngarita, Jorgehttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/27372014-04-08T09:36:01Z2007-05-01T00:00:00ZBidding wind energy under uncertainty
Usaola, Julio; Angarita, Jorge
The integration of wind energy into electricity markets implies that the wind energy must commit their production for a given time period. This requires the use of
short term wind power prediction tools to prepare the bids for the spot market. The output of these tools have a limited
accuracy, and, therefore, these predictions are uncertain. Optimal bids must take into account this uncertainty in order to get the maximum revenue from the sell of energy,
minimizing losses due to imbalance costs. The consequence is that the optimal bids sent to the market do not coincide with the best predictions. Regulatory authorities must
consider if this situation is good for the system operation, and encourage TSOs to have their own prediction tools and have results independent of bidding strategies.
2007-05-01T00:00:00ZA Proposal for Compensation between TSOs for Cross Border TradesUsaola, JulioMoreno López de Saá, María Ángeleshttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/27362013-09-30T17:14:57Z2007-07-01T00:00:00ZA Proposal for Compensation between TSOs for Cross Border Trades
Usaola, Julio; Moreno López de Saá, María Ángeles
The increasing amount of power exchanges in the European networks makes necessary to design a method for the allocation of the grid costs incurred by these exchanges. This paper presents a method that complies with the conditions required by the regulatory authorities and is technically sound. It calculates the compensation due to a grid using a differential method, while the contributions of the grid users are calculated by the Simplified Average Participation approach
2007-07-01T00:00:00Z