State of the Statement: Texans-Jags NFL Betting Spread

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 11½-point faves against the Houston Texans. Clearly, the NFL betting spread got the memo. Sacksonville is on a mission to sack Houston out of their cleats. Regardless of who is the Texans’ starting QB. Hint: it’s TJ Yates. The Jags made a statement with their 30-24 win over Seattle on Sunday. Then they made yet another statement following the game. This one regarding their fans. Another hint: it’s not a ‘thank you for your support’ note. On the other side of the spectrum, Jacksonville’s success has some fans thinking in very hyperbolic, though technically correct, terms.

If making the playoffs is an indicator of regular season success, then the Jaguars are playing their best football in 10 years. They made sure they’ll have a winning record for the first time in a decade. They can secure a postseason spot with a win over the Texans. The Jags are entrenched in first place in the AFC South entering Week 15 for the first time since 2010. They hold the No. 3 seed in the AFC and, should they win out, they would clinch the AFC South title. But the Jaguars are not looking past Houston. “All I know is this – I have the players coming in on Wednesday,” head coach Doug Marrone said.

Jacksonville is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing the AFC and 6-1 ATS in the last seven playing the AFC South. The Jags are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games in December and 2-6 against the NFL betting spread in the last eight games in Week 15.

Houston offense/defense combine to trend under

The Texans lost a third straight game. To the 49ers of all teams. They also lost QB Tom Savage. To a concussion. But they gained TJ Yates. Yates completed 14 of 26 passes for 175 yards, two TDs and no picks for a 100.6 passer rating. Additionally, he rushed for 31 yards on three attempts. “He did a good job,” head coach Bill O’Brien said. “He’s in a tough spot there. Any time you’ve got to come into a game like that and you haven’t gotten a lot of reps during the week. He’s done that before for us. He’s a pro. He’s great guy to coach, very bright guy.” Two of Yates’s scoring passes went to DeAndre Hopkins. The wide receiver has continually thrived this season, regardless of whether Deshaun Watson, Savage, or Yates.

The Texans have averaged just 15 points per game in the last three. However, they have allowed 24.3 points per game in the same period. Not unsurprisingly, one was a push and the other two went under the total. Additionally, the Texans are 4-9 ATS playing a team with a winning record. They are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 15. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an outright loss. They are 1-5 against the NFL betting spread in their last six playing the AFC South.