The NFL Draft is a tremendously boring weekend-long event that
has become a maniacal event for reasons that are completely illogical.

Fans have been convinced that a single college kid can make all the difference
for their team, when in reality, a considerable percentage of draft picks
never pan out. And a sizeable number of those that do are not the ones
you expect.

Nonetheless, every spring, the NFL picks over the cream of the college
crop looking for the next Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis and Randy Moss. And
teams get their shorts in a knot over whichever star-in-the-making they
land.

But what makes this year's draft interesting is that nobody wants
the best players. Few teams think they are as good as the best players
in past years and even fewer are interested in doling out enormous contracts
to players they generally don't think are worth it. The NFL's system leaves
them no choice; you don't technically have to draft any players, but if
you do, you're going to pay them.

So we're watching this year not to see who will wind up where, but instead
who won't wind up where. The top picks could be decided by the
process of elimination: Well, we don't want Player A or Player B, so I
guess we'd better take Player C.

This draft will be exciting (or at least the 10 minutes of the 12-hour
broadcast in which something actually happens) because nobody knows anything.
Most teams are trying to trade down from their original draft picks, some
are trying to move up because they sense they can work a cheap trade and
all are watching everybody else to see what's cooking.

We won't be excited about the actual players on Saturday, just the machinations
behind how each player got to where he went. But we can get excited about
trying to predict, with little success, what will happen.

#1

Alex Smith, QB, Utah.

For the past two months, I have thought that Aaron Rodgers is a better
quarterback prospect than Smith, but the 49ers appear to have settled
on Smith over the past few weeks. I haven't really seen anything in

Smith to make me think he will be a special player, other than that
he is "smart." Well, there are a lot of smart people in the
world and not a lot of good quarterbacks. The 49ers get their next quarterback,
but they don't solve their quarterback problem with the pick.

#2

Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn.

The Dolphins have no good pick to make. If the 49ers didn't take Smith,
several teams would be interested in trading up for him, or Miami could
take him itself. But the 49ers don't like Rodgers enough to put themselves

into more of a quarterback quandary. Brown is going to be a heck of a
running back. Runners might not provide as much value for such a high
pick as other positions, but the Dolphins make themselves very good at
a very important position with the selection.

#3

Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan.

If the Browns add Edwards to healthy tight end Kellen Winslow, backed
by a rushing game led by Reuben Droughns and Lee Suggs, that offense isn't
horrible. Trent Dilfer is good enough to keep you around in games

until somebody else blows it for you. New GM Phil Savage isn't wild
about drafting quarterbacks this high, and he'd want Smith, not Rodgers,
as well.

#4

Cedrick Benson, RB, Texas.

Benson appeared to have fallen behind Cadillac Williams on the running
back board, but the Bears would prefer a grinding, pound-it-out running
game. That's what Benson gives them. They'd consider Edwards

as well if he were available, but they're better off taking the back.
Rex Grossman won't be completing many passes, and when he finally gets
good enough to do so, Chicago always will be able to land competent receivers.
Personally, I would take linebacker Derrick Johnson, which would help
develop what could be the league's best defense.

#5

Cadillac Williams, RB, Auburn.

Can't you just imagine a slovenly coach like Jon Gruden slobbering all
over Williams? Gruden fell in love with Williams at the Senior Bowl, and
now he gets his fingers on him. He might not wind up being the best

pick in the draft, but he probably will be one of the sexiest (at least
in terms of his playing style), and Gruden always worries about substance
after style.

#6

Aaron Rodgers, QB, California.

Rodgers' slight fall ends here as the Titans grab the likely successor
to Steve McNair. It's pretty much a no-brainer pick if it falls this way.
McNair is about half-dead; the Titans don't really have any business landing
Rodgers here.

#7

Mike Williams, WR, Southern Cal.

Williams would be considered the last premier offensive player, so the
Vikings probably would get more trade offers for the pick than other teams
will. Williams has the potential to be a mind-boggling receiver. He

won't run past many defenders, but he will out jump them, out leap them
and is one of those guys who catches everything within sight. The Vikings
have talked about packaging their two No. 1 picks to move up to take Edwards,
but Edwards is not significantly better than Williams, and the Vikings
can really bolster their team by adding another strong starter at No.
18.

#8

Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami (Fla.).

The Cardinals also could look to move out of this spot because they don't
really like any of the players left here. Rolle could wind up as the best
defensive player in this draft and has the best chance in this class to
be a

shutdown cornerback. The Cardinals need one of those, so it makes perfect
sense.

#9

Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn.

Hey, the Tigers could have three players drafted in the top nine. I wonder
if they had a pretty good team last year - maybe one that could have played
for a national championship? This pick might not be the

Redskins' to make either; if they do, they'll like the bigger and more
physical Rogers over the shorter, faster Adam "Pac-Man" Jones.

#10

Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin.

Valuations of this guy are all over the place, largely because of lingering
concerns about a previous hip injury. That aside, I don't think James
is fast enough or strong enough to make a huge impact. I'm also not prepared

for the Lions to be competitive, so if James doesn't work out, hey, I'm
not going to sweat it.

#11

DeMarcus Ware, DE, Troy.

Ware will be the first of several so-called hybrid defensive players
to go in the first round. Ware is quick enough to stand up as a pass-rushing
outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, with the potential to eventually
bulk

up and return to his college position as a defensive end. He is a perfect
fit for the Cowboys; they hope to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive
front, and Ware has soared past Shawne Merriman, a similar player, in
recent days.

#12

Shawne Merriman, LB/DE, Maryland.

The Chargers happily will grab Merriman, who has been pegged to go to
the Cowboys since about January. Ware's fast-rising stock

means that won't happen, allowing San Diego to take their prime target.
He'll fit perfectly into the team's 3-4 scheme, just as Ware will fit
with Dallas. For a team lacking defensive playmakers, Merriman will be
one.

#13

Alex Barron, T, Florida State.

The Texans will benefit from none of the offensive tackles being considered
all-world this year. Usually, one of them goes in the top 10, but Barron
still will be here and he can come in to protect franchise quarterback

David Carr for the next 10-12 years. There has been some talk about Barron
sliding, and the Texans maybe not being interested in him, but don't buy
it.

#14

Heath Miller, TE, Virginia.

Another pick that just makes too sense not to happen. Miller has disappeared
from some draft rankings because he hasn't been able to work out through
the whole draft season because of a hernia. But that will heal, and

he is too accomplished of a receiver to slide further. Carolina will
wind up with great value; maybe not Tony Gonzalez, but probably better
than Jeremy Shockey.

#15

Adam "Pac-Man" Jones, CB, West Virginia.

This is precipitated on the Chiefs not trading for Miami cornerback Patrick
Surtain, which is their better option. If forced to draft a cornerback,
Kansas City would prefer Rogers

because new division arrival Randy Moss is just going to laugh when he
sees the 5-9 1/2 Jones trying to defend him. If the Chiefs were to land
Surtain, or possibly free-agent cornerback Ty Law, look for them to take
a pass rusher, probably Georgia's David Pollack.

#16

Jamaal Brown, T, Oklahoma.

In connection with the rumors of Barron dropping, there has been concurring
talk that Brown could jump ahead of Barron. If that happens, the Saints
would be equally happy taking Barron as they would Brown. Brown is

a good fit because he is going to be a right tackle for a few years while
he bulks up and learns the game, and that's what the Saints need now.

#17

Marcus Spears, DE, LSU.

Spears is going to be a great player, much like Patriots star defensive
lineman Richard Seymour. Coach Marvin Lewis might not know exactly what
to do with Spears right now because he will be versatile enough to

play inside or outside. But Spears will be a great player wherever he
goes, and Lewis will figure out what do with him.

#18

Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina.

This is a dream scenario for the Vikings, landing two top receivers from
the two different USCs. It probably won't happen because Williamson is
soaring up boards and

is overvalued by this point. He'll be gone before this point, but I'm
not sold on him. He's fast. That's what the uproar is about Williamson.
He isn't polished and didn't play in a passing offense in college. He
faces a steep learning curve.

#19

Thomas Davis, S, Georgia.

The need is just too great for the Rams to pass Davis; the only true
safety they have is Adam Archuleta, who has lingering back problems. Many
people think Davis, at 230 pounds, eventually will move to linebacker,

which is OK for the Rams because they need help there too. It's an unfortunate
pick for Davis because defensive players drafted early by the Rams tend
to stink.

#20

Shaun Cody, DT, Southern Cal.

The Cowboys will trade down if somebody makes a good offer; if they don't,
picking Cody will give them two great first-round defensive picks -- exactly
what coach Bill Parcells is looking for. Cody is strong and

quick enough to play anywhere on the line; he has a relentless motor
and huge upside.

#21

Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma.

A cornerback is a more-pressing need, but Clayton is too good to pass
on. He is ready to make an immediate contribution and probably is better
right now than Reggie Williams, the Jaguars' first-round pick last

year, although Williams still has more potential. As Jimmy Smith gets
ready to claim Social Security, Jacksonville needs somebody to punch up
the offense.

#22

Khalif Barnes, T, Washington.

Good value pick for the Ravens and also fills one of the only open spots
in their lineup, at right tackle. He'd be a great bookend to pair with
all-world Jonathan Ogden and will make Baltimore's offense potent, helping
the run

game while also protecting young quarterback Kyle Boller.

#23

David Pollack, DE, Georgia.

Many good defensive line candidates are slipping in this scenario, which
is great news for the desperate Seahawks. Pollack has a chance to be a
great pass rusher, although he isn't a great physical specimen. In that

regard, he is similar to Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi. Seattle defensive
coordinator Ray Rhodes will have to figure out what to do with him. They
also love defensive tackle Luis Castillo but are wary after he admitted
testing positive for steroids last week.

#24

Matt Roth, DE, Iowa.

Defense, defense, defense. That's all that matters for the Packers. They
wasted a couple high picks on cornerbacks last year and ought to give
them another year before trying to replace them. Roth is like Pollack
--

not great physically but a huge motor. He's the kind of player the crazy
Packers fans will fall in love with.

#25

Roddy White, WR, Alabama-Birmingham.

The only thing that makes less sense than the Redskins trading up for
this pick is them taking Auburn quarterback Jason Campbell. That still
might happen, but telegraphing

your intentions for this pick several days ahead of the draft is just
inviting somebody to trade up one spot ahead of you to take Campbell.
I think this move is a product of owner Daniel Snyder loving flashy offensive
players, while coach Joe Gibbs knows his defense needs help. The second
first-rounder allows both to be happy. If it means losing a potential
top 10 pick next year, so be it.

#26

Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska.

The Raiders took advantage of the Jets' penchant for underachieving,
white tight ends to get back in the first round where they can secure
a much-needed cornerback. Oakland already has dumped Phillip

Buchanon and would like to get rid of Charles Woodson, its top two corners
last year. Washington is fast if a bit raw and is a big-time playmaker
who had 11 interceptions in three years.

#27

Justin Tuck, DE, Notre Dame.

I'm not a huge fan of Tuck's, but this is about where he is falling on
a lot of draft boards. The Falcons also could select one of several first-round
worthy receivers who will be available here. That would appeal to fans,

but after using first-round picks to acquire Michael Jenkins and Peerless
Price the past two years, they need to use the selection on other positions.
They'd also look for an offensive lineman, but there isn't one to take
here.

#28

Reggie Brown, WR, Georgia.

The Chargers fill their other big need by taking Brown with their second
first-rounder. Brown will wind up being better than a lot of the players
taken ahead of him. He lacks polish but is an incredible athlete who will

become a top-notch receiver in a year or two.

#29

Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan.

Clemson's Justin Miller would be another good selection for the Colts,
but they put a high value on character and likely will devalue Miller
after he was arrested for disorderly conduct last weekend. Jackson is

a bit of a risk because some teams project him at cornerback instead
of safety. He can contribute as a rookie, which is vital for this team.

#30

Justin Miller, CB, Clemson.

Character isn't a concern for the Steelers as long as a guy can play.
Miller will help boost the secondary, which was trashed in last season's
AFC title game. Miller also is a great returner, which the Steelers could
need if

they try to protect Antwaan Randle El, projected to be a regular starter
for the first time.

#31

Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern.

Castillo is a fast-rising first-round pick, according to several teams,
and his going here means Travis Johnson -- long assumed to be the No.
1 defensive tackle -- would slip out of the first round. The pick fills
a need for

the Eagles, who also always are a candidate to trade up. They have the
ammunition to do so this year with extra second- and third-round picks.

#32

Darryl Blackstock, LB, Virginia.

There's no telling what the Patriots might do; they conceal their intentions
better than any team and always stay true to their board, regardless of
what position they take. Blackstock is a versatile, tackling, pass-

rushing linebacker. He could play inside or outside and fits well with
what the Patriots like from their linebackers, although they usually don't
draft them this high.

Matt Pitzer is the fantasy football expert for USA Today Sports
Weekly.