Electoral Calculus continues to update the headline prediction live in real time as new opinion polls are published.

The election outlook continues to be very close with Labour and the Conservatives vying for the lead in the polls. This week Labour just regained its lead over the Tories in both polls and seats. The betting markets still see the Conservatives ahead, but the average of polls and markets puts Labour head by a nose.

So the central case for the election outcome is still an alliance between Labour and the SNP and/or Plaid Cymru.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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