Forex Weekly Watch: Jan. 19 – 23, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex

The bearish sentiment continued without a hiccup last week, riding the moving averages lower once again. The 140.00 major psychological level I noted last week was easily broken thanks to strong broad risk aversion sentiment and euro weakness.

For this week, there’s no reason to go bullish on EUR/JPY until we see a sustained break above the moving averages, and until then I’m looking to short on a retest of the MA’s, above the weekly ATR level around 137.00. 137.00 is actually the area where we saw mid-week support, so it may serve as resistance on a retest. Finally, keep in mind that there are big events coming from both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this week that may throw it all out of wack.

WO: 135.60

Top WATR: 136.97

Bottom WATR: 134.23

PWH: 140.88

PWL: 134.72

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Even better than its cousin above, Guppy has been riding those moving averages like a champ lower. One thing to note though is that last week’s move lower was much shallower than the previous week, so it’s possible the down trend may be slowing down. Of course, we won’t know until we know, plus this week may be a tricky one for Guppy traders with a few major catalysts on the forex calendar for both the pound and yen. I’m actually long GBP/JPY so I’ll be watching closely, especially that 176.00 handle. If it breaks I may have to make changes to my open position.

WO: 178.02

Top WATR: 179.77

Bottom WATR: 176.27

PWH: 180.55

PWL: 175.84

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP was all about the sellers last week with a strong move from the .7800 area to the .7600, dropping twice its average weekly true range. It could be another volatile week for this pair with central banks for both the euro and Sterling, so I’ll sit back and watching for a bit on this pair. If the market gets back up to the .7700 – .7750 area, where the moving averages are currently residing, I may have to adjust my short orders on my EUR/GBP idea to hop in on what could be temporary strength.

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