PUERTO RICO REPORT

Winning Isn't Everything, But It's A Good Campaign
Slogan

by Lance Oliver

I must have been scanning the business section or searching
for bargains in the classifieds the day the news came out that
primaries were not about choosing the candidate with the most
ability, but rather the one with the most electability.

A recent national poll on the presidential race in the Republican
Party illustrates this phenomenon well. Texas Gov. George W. Bush,
the man with all the early endorsements and big financial contributions,
has a 64 percent to 18 percent lead over his closest challenger,
Sen. John McCain.

But when the poll question was changed, and potential voters
were asked who they would choose if McCain won a few early primaries,
thereby showing he is a viable candidate, Bush's margin dropped
to nothing, 37 percent to 34 percent for McCain.

What the poll shows clearly is that Bush locked up the early
support not because Republicans thought he was the best candidate,
but because he was seen as the candidate most likely to win in
the general election. Take away his air of inevitability and he
becomes just a lackluster campaigner, a two-term governor whose
previous job experience was managing a baseball team.

The same phenomenon can be seen in Puerto Rico. In last month's
primary elections, candidates often focused their television advertising
not on their accomplishments or their plans for the future, but
on a different promise: that they were winners.

"Be part of the great Popular Party victory," one
ad invited. Another ad urged voters to make their votes count.
The way to do that was to vote for the candidate who was going
to win. Apparently voting for a losing candidate you believe in
is less satisfying than voting for the one who gets the throw
the victory party on election night.

The tactic played an obvious role in the Popular Democratic
Party's race for resident commissioner between former party president
Aníbal Acevedo Vilá and José Alfredo Hernández
Mayoral. The Hernández campaign made much of a poll that
showed him doing better in a one-on-one matchup with Resident
Commissioner Carlos Romero Barceló than would Acevedo Vilá.

The poll showed Hernández gaining 40,000 more votes
than Acevedo Vilá against Romero, and the mayors supporting
the son of former Gov. Rafael Hernández Colón made
advertisements urging voters to vote for a winner. "Vote
for the one who gets 40,000 more votes against Romero," one
ad urged.

The Acevedo Vilá campaign turned the tactic around,
urging loyal party members to give PDP President Sila María
Calderón the running mate she wanted. With Calderón
the unchallenged candidate for governor, and with her undisguised
opposition to running with Hernández Mayoral next to her
on the ballot, the campaign again focused on victory, implying
that Calderón could lead the party triumphant into La Fortaleza
if only she were given the support she needed and the ticket she
asked for.

It can be argued that Hernández Mayoral had to focus
on his vote-winning ability since he had little else, aside from
his name, to recommend him. Though George W. Bush may not have
the most compelling resume in the race for president, he is a
seasoned and experienced statesman compared to Hernández
Mayoral.

Hernández could not match Acevedo Vilá in terms
of service to the party or experience in the public sector, so
he had to take another route.
But despite that argument, I think there is more at work here
than that. Other candidates with years in the legislature also
chose to focus not on their accomplishments or positions, but
on building an image as a winner.

And Puerto Rico undeniably loves a winner. Look at the incredible
crowds that lined the streets when Dayanara Torres came home with
the Miss Universe crown, or the even more incredible masses that
celebrated when Tito Trinidad came home with the welterweight
boxing title. Everybody from Carlos Pesquera to jobless teens
hanging around Hato Rey wanted a piece of that glory, to feel
a little like a winner by being close to a certified, undisputed
winner on a worldwide scale.

For a nation with a 500-year history of having its own sovereignty,
and often its own identity, denied, it is probably inevitable.
For self-esteem, join the winning team.

Of course for Hernández Mayoral, the tactic wasn't enough
this time. But it definitely strikes a responsive chord.

In general elections, most people are still populares,
penepes or independentistas. But when choosing from
among their own ranks, voters like a winning candidate, maybe
even better than a good one.

Lance Oliver writes The Puerto Rico Report weekly
for The Puerto Rico Herald. He can be reached by email
at: loliver@caribe.net.