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A couple of things we’ve learned this week. Parliament did a great job, but it was the government that allowed parliament to do the job to begin with.

Depending on which side of the fence you are, the government either passed the buck to parliament or the N-League used parliament as a shield.

Whatever the stories that may emanate about opposition-led changes and tweaks to the resolution, this much was
known from the beginning: there is no closer ally of the Saudis in politics — mainstream politics, anyway — than the
PML-N.

The PML-N owned the reluctance to respond swiftly to the Saudi demands.

And the Saudis had been clear: give us what we want and we need it now.

For the N-League to send this matter to parliament — instead of, say, convening the Cabinet Committee on National Security to debate it internally — was for the PML-N to say at the outset, guys, help us out here, we’re caught in a bind.

And parliament obliged. Probably more than the PML-N had hoped. PPP, ANP, MQM — those kinds you always expected them to say, stay out of the Middle East, fix the problems at home first.

But when PTI, JI, JUI-F piled on too it was a bit of a godsend. The PML-N had the consensus it could hide behind. Sorry, Saudis, but look, that’s what the collective will of our country is saying. Our hands are tied.

Don’t for a minute be fooled by any of that talk of a watered-down resolution or the strong, pro-Saudi language the government wanted being tempered by stuff about neutrality or diplomacy.

This happened because the king here, Nawaz, wanted this to happen. Which leaves us with trying to figure out why they wanted this.

From the beginning, if you trace the statements, public and private, of N-Leaguers, there was always a sense that the preference was to not send troops to Yemen, to not participate militarily in operations inside Yemen and, at most, as a
measure of last resort, to placate the Saudis by sending token support to be based inside Saudi.

Which leaves us with the question of why Nawaz would so publicly resist his greatest ally in its self-determined hour of need?

It’s not even true that this was forced upon the PML-N by the other players here, by the army, for example, which just said no to participating in Yemen and left the government with having to do the explanations.

The PML-N owned this decision. It owned the reluctance to respond swiftly to the Saudi demands and it owned the shuttle diplomacy and concerted action by Turkey and Pakistan.

Had the PML-N wanted it could have sent the opposite signal, suggesting that it was racing to do whatever the Saudis asked for and then letting the blame for inaction here fall on the obvious quarters.

So what gives?

Resistance has been put down to Pakistani resolve. To Pakistan doing the right thing. To statesmanship at last making an appearance. To developing a spine.

But could it be that the N-League, Nawaz in particular, familiar with the Saudis for decades now understand the Saudis better than most of us here and immediately sensed that the new Saudi leadership has bitten off more than it can chew?

That the Saudis have made a strategic error, led by an untested leadership panicked by events of recent years around them, and that they have not thought Yemen through?

Inside Pakistan, the argument being advanced is that Pakistan has at last understood its core national interests and wants to stay out of proxy wars and the like. That Pakistan first is the rule going forward.

Whereas, the more you look at this, given all else that has been happening here — NAP progress, anyone? — it may be less about Pakistan and more about Nawaz understanding Saudi and the royals and sensing they’ve waded into a conflict with no winners, at best. Why does any of that matter? Whether we’re not going because of reasons internal or because Nawaz may have figured out the Saudis have waded into something they won’t be able to walk away from
easily?

Because it would put into context this historic turning point that the parliamentary resolution is being cast as. A wise rejection of an ally because of the proxy-war, Saudi-Iran angle and the need to focus on the fight against militancy
domestically.

It is a good decision. But knowing whether it is born of wise statecraft and Pakistan’s position in the Muslim world or a shrewd but narrower estimate of a wrong-headed war matters.

There is though one caveat. Through much of the debate in parliament and in the media you could sense the heavy theme hanging over it: Peshawar.

Had the convulsion that was Peshawar not happened, would the tenor of the debate on participating in Yemen been the same? Hard to know counter-factuals, but you can guess the debate would have been at least slightly different. The memory of Peshawar has made it harder to take ugly decisions.

The automatic disbelief that Pakistan would try and wade into a sectarian conflict was less about people being sure Yemen is a sectarian conflict or knowing that Saudi-Iran proxies war would re-ignite inside Pakistan and more, you could sense, a revulsion at the thought of fresh horrors being unleashed here, however remote.

Peshawar does live in the memory and, for a horror of that magnitude, in a good way. But not to the extent of the government taking the fight against militancy seriously.

On DawnNews

Comments (65) Closed

a_writer

Apr 12, 2015 02:18am

You can almost hear the collective sigh of relief from Pakistan after having somehow managed to blurt out a 'No' to Saudi request. It might be a wee bit too early for a feeling of euphoria and joy, as though this discussion is over. Saudi Govt. seem to have committed a major diplomatic blunder when they assumed that Pakistan would ask 'how high' when told to jump. Be that it may, at the end of the day, the Saudis still hold the purse from which Pakistan expects few coins now and then. With the winding down of action in Afghanistan, Uncle Sam is not going to be too eager to send pocket money regularly. China, for all its friendship, doesn't know or believe in straight out aid with nothing in return for it.
So, the bottom line is - Things are getting worse in Yemen and Saudis are going to realize that they need soldiers on the ground to pursue their objectives. The next 'request' to Pakistan to send its soldiers will come written on a big stick with all the past IOU's pasted on it.

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umer

Apr 12, 2015 06:28am

"Peshawar does live in the memory and, for a horror of that magnitude, in a good way. But not to the extent of the government taking the fight against militancy seriously"
Someone, explain please.

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Shoaib N.

Apr 12, 2015 06:54am

I think you are being far too kind to Nawaz and co. The reality is that the generals get nothing from Saudi, so they have no reason to fight for them. That plus the generals have no love for Nawaz anyway, so why would they oblige him?

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Hasan

Apr 12, 2015 07:14am

Spine at last.
Pakistan for once have decided to take its own decisions, based on its own priorities.
Hats off for both the Sharifs.

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Syed

Apr 12, 2015 09:39am

With no major TTP-related attacks in PK or specific targeted killings happening in Karachi for last few weeks, and Pakistan's weak parliament showing some sense of maturity and a gleam of hope, springs seems to be here, finally, at least for now!

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khanm

Apr 12, 2015 10:01am

whether we did right or wrong that does not count at the moment... how long we will be able to sustain the pressure and that will be our courage....Remember courage is grace under pressure.....

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ishtiaer hussain

Apr 12, 2015 10:47am

This is the decision by the Parliament which reflected the will of the people of Pakistan. This is how democracy works by balancing competing demands and avoiding tilt towards extremes. What is positively surprising is the fact that even the religious right is also now convinced of the futility of serving as footsoldiers to the Saudis!

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gul

Apr 12, 2015 10:49am

Well analyzed article!

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WAZIR SHAFIQ AHMAD KHAN

Apr 12, 2015 10:51am

biased story

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Muhammad Irfan

Apr 12, 2015 11:00am

They are masters not friends...Pakistan must stay away...no more proxies, please...!!

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Capt C M Khan

Apr 12, 2015 11:39am

Great article. Well done. Correct analysis.

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Faiz Khilji

Apr 12, 2015 11:41am

Its not a good decision in the long run. The decision has been influenced by the media and a particular loby. We have dished the Saudis, who have been our best and the only real friends. They have always been generous to us at all the times of need. Nothing personal about Nawaz knowing the Saudis, but its the media pressure that has been exerted to the full. Pakistan has to tighten its belt now and be prepared to take the sour realities. It should wish for a peaceful settlement of this issue, which I don't see in the near future. It should try hard for peace and should have talked with Saudis six months back, when they were saying that we are always with you.

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Indian

Apr 12, 2015 11:52am

Don't expect anything from Gulf countries from now on. And for Chinese their is nothing called free lunches for them. They will suck all the minerals from Pakistan and then Pakistan will be left alone to face the environment catastrophe.

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Pakistani

Apr 12, 2015 12:07pm

I for one can't give any credit of 'fore-sightedness' to our parliamentarians - even though they have, for a change, managed to arrive at a decision that reflects the general sentiment in the country.

That is because the reasons being put forward are all secondary: we are already fighting, we should not take part in other's war, etc. etc.

They are all missing the single most important reason: It is just an illegal war. It is just pure blind aggression; one launched by the kingdom to save their own rule. There is no justification for this crime and Saudis should be tried for their criminal action. That is the line of reasoning that should determine our course of action. Do we want to side with an aggressor or do we want to side with the helpless and defenseless. Because all the reasons put forward by the parliament for the decision should not stand in our way to help those who are being dealt with unjustly.

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saad

Apr 12, 2015 12:09pm

Wise decision! though will be tested by anger and financial threat by the gulf countries

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M

Apr 12, 2015 12:13pm

Pakistan had paid a heavy price by indulging in proxy wars of USA , Saudi arabia and west Asia. Saudi Arabia has not financed naval fleets, Air Force squadron or heavy equipments for pakistan.

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Radhakrishnan

Apr 12, 2015 12:33pm

The fact is that it is the Military that decided where they would fight and not the Parliament of Pakistan. As the author said the Government had just to explain as is usually the case. Here the government was able fall back on the Parliament and the opposition had no choice either. But whatever it is, the decision not to join the Saudi's is in Pakistan's interest so the Military has won and so the Pakistan democracy.

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khangul

Apr 12, 2015 12:49pm

Pakistan's parliament did what a gear majority of Pakistanis wanted which is not to get involve in a very nasty trap. Sending few hundred thousand Pakistanis back to Pakistan will, in the long run, harm the Arabs more than Pakistan. In fact, with mega projects like Gwadar in the making, we will need all those skilled and semi-skilled labor working in foreign lands for our country's development. Let our political and business leaders learn not to take "their" money to other countries.

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Dr. Sadaf

Apr 12, 2015 01:17pm

Is everything so simple and clear as pointed out in the article, I don't think so. There is a lot which doesn't meet the eye.

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Tom Price

Apr 12, 2015 01:32pm

What flabbergasts me is the fact, doesn't Saudi have enough armymen to tackle a bunch of bandits (as SA puts it)? Or are Saudi lives precious than Pakistanis, therefore Saudi foot soldiers shouldn't be sent.

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Farrukh Munir

Apr 12, 2015 01:39pm

It's the army who made the decision and left it to poor Nawaz Sharif to deliver the message, who in turn left it to the parliament to say NO.

Whatever the reason, this is the right decision and we must learn to live without aid. the Saudis are aggressors in this adventure and we should tell them that we are not part of the aggression but still will come to defend you if you are attacked in return.

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Ammar

Apr 12, 2015 01:49pm

I think the author is being too generous to NS. He is still a nihari-loving prime minister. Though, I am happy if after 30+ years of polictics and almost 20 years being in power he is finally growing a spine

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Aban Usmani

Apr 12, 2015 02:11pm

This is the way things are played in democracy.
Had a parliment been in place at the time of 9/11 we won't have gotton into the mess we are now.
Even if the army said No it still formally officially followed the orders of the Parliment and the Prime Minister.
Let's hope we can keep democracy in place

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S. A. M.

Apr 12, 2015 02:36pm

whoever decided to say no to involvement in Yemen war made the right decision at the right time. I doubt that nawaz didn't want to send Pakistan army to Yemen. I think he doesn't have power or say to order deployment of troops there. I see an error in judgement here. Pak army is fully aware of Arabs funding the seminaries and saying no the side with Saudi means a big retaliation similar to Peshawar incident to happen anytime. no we still don't know the real reason for saying no to Saudis request for sending our men to their rescue.

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Guru

Apr 12, 2015 02:59pm

Whatever be the motives of the different players, Pakistan's Parliament has stood tall with this decision.

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Asif

Apr 12, 2015 03:21pm

If the Pakistani have learnt to place Pakistan first then in Pakistan's history this is historical and first step towards getting out of our own mess.

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Rana

Apr 12, 2015 03:34pm

I think the decision made by parliament in joint session is very good. We don't need to jump in others war. Saudi Arabia has its own issues with Yemen and Iran.

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A. A.

Apr 12, 2015 03:39pm

Too many commas in the article, otherwise an excellent analysis.

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Ehtisham

Apr 12, 2015 04:03pm

It is amazing that the resolution to not engage militarily was "unanimous" and without a counter view. That should tell us that the Army did not want to get into this war. Period!

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M. Asghar

Apr 12, 2015 04:23pm

The only reasonable manner to deal with the Yemeni civil conflict and its geopolitical fall- out is the forming of a solid alliance between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey.

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Sadiq

Apr 12, 2015 04:41pm

@a_writer excellent analysis!

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aryastan

Apr 12, 2015 05:08pm

Saudi has given everything to Pak, Iran has nothing to offer to Pak.

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MirGhaffar

Apr 12, 2015 05:14pm

Great decision indeed,first great decision have been made in six decades. I see many financial challenges ahead if Arabs take it seriously.

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kamkasein

Apr 12, 2015 05:14pm

@Tom Price I agree, with all the petro dollars why can't SA handle this on its own. Or they are looking for some cheap blood.

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Faisal Waqar Ali

Apr 12, 2015 05:23pm

@umer agreed. Mr. Cyril please explain.

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Ali S

Apr 12, 2015 05:30pm

@Tom Price

That, and the last time Saudis sent troops to tame Yemen, they came back with their tails chopped off.

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Hassan

Apr 12, 2015 05:33pm

Indulging our army in Operation Decisive Storm would be a wrong option.

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Dr. Sadaf

Apr 12, 2015 06:00pm

@Ammar , are you really sure of that, old habits die hard and particularly at this age.

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Dr. Sadaf

Apr 12, 2015 06:03pm

@Hasan , I will keep my hat on and wait for the outcome and then decide.

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Khalid

Apr 12, 2015 06:06pm

This article is based on naive assumption of Nawaz role. In fact Nawaz committed to his intent was later not supported by thr ones who matters, and was finally snubbed by the Non PML N members of the parliament.

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Ajamal

Apr 12, 2015 06:33pm

To call Saudi leadership "untested" is wrong. King Salman has been in the important positions (Riyadh Governor for 48 year 1963-2011) and faced severe challenges during the 3 Gulf Wars as an important figure of the Royal family.

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Ajamal

Apr 12, 2015 06:36pm

To take foreign affairs matters to the parliament is WRONG. Executive authority to take decisions rests with the government. Remember, recently US Congress tried to interfere in the Iranian matter and invited Bibi Nethanyuhu to address them. It backfired on the US Congress as authority rests with the President.

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Nizamuddin Ahmad Aali

Apr 12, 2015 07:19pm

A famous saying, " it is not over until it is over " is true today in Pakistan. It will not be over until the war is over in Yamen. I do not trust the Sharifs for a moment. They will try to please the royals any way they can. They personally have lot to lose.

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Muhammad Rafiq Malik

Apr 12, 2015 07:20pm

It is very unfortunate rather. Saudis and other gulf countries do everything what. Their master tells them. They all should realize our position.

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Fahim Khan

Apr 12, 2015 08:02pm

No one is talking about Yemen and the casualties by the illegal aggression of Saud Family.

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Gaz

Apr 12, 2015 08:10pm

Thie writer is trying to give credit NS for something he did not do. I mean when on earth do you see a leader go to parliament and ask them to tell him what to do. The PM jobs is to decide policy and then get it approved from parliament if they don't approve you then make changes come back and set our policy. It's clear that NS is not in charge of foreign policy and he has been told the same by the Army.

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Dr. D. Prihipaul

Apr 12, 2015 08:48pm

Just look at the twists and turns within the politics of Yemen itself to grasp the permanent feature of the Muslim mind : mobility. That decision of the Parliament is a good illustration of Islamic mobility. The politics related to the USA is fraught with this atavistic mobility. The unanimity of the Parliament against Saudi pressure is another turn of the mobility. Pakistan still owes a debt to the Saudis. Parliament did not cancel the debt.

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Keti Zilgish

Apr 12, 2015 09:19pm

@Radhakrishnan What is the difference between this version of democracy and the military?

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Keti Zilgish

Apr 12, 2015 09:22pm

@Dr. Sadaf exactly.

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Prakash

Apr 12, 2015 09:53pm

I am a long time reader of Dawn. As an outsider it seems that Pakistan's democracy has started delivering for the first time. No matter how imperfect, the collective wisdom of the People's representatives, is usually in the best interest of the country. I hope sincerely that Pakistan continues on this trend of democratic maturity, and keeps out of endless (violent) conflicts within and outside it's borders. Good luck!

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Mustafa US

Apr 12, 2015 10:00pm

This is Saudi Arabia's war, if there are any fatalities they should be burying their own, Pakistan should not bury its own fighting somebody else's turf war!!!

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Cricket Junkie

Apr 12, 2015 10:10pm

Let's bray for the Saudis!

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goodDeedsLeadTo

Apr 12, 2015 10:18pm

@Hasan Pakistan military contingent is already their alongside other contingent forces, in Saudi Arabia. How it is possible for Shareef to benefit in business from Saudi Arabia, and not accede to Saudi requirement?

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Parvez

Apr 12, 2015 10:57pm

Second attempt : Nice article, at least you have taken a firm position....except for your enigmatic ending.

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Zak

Apr 12, 2015 11:00pm

The Saudis have made a cardinal mistake, by getting their military involved directly. They should have raised a local mercenary army around Aden, long before. Now in panic, they thought Pakistan will just fly in and take that role. Not realizing that the consequences of an entire nations getting involved, can be catastrophic. pakistan army could train their force

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omair

Apr 13, 2015 01:22am

what is bank loan interest or bank mortgage interest or 'sood' or bank lease in comman man language it is

1 for bank loan sood mortgage lease a person or people have to put some security deposit for taking loan mortgage sood lease , and in sood interest the person wives mothers daughters sisters are as sex workers for the loan money the bank gave for interest sood.

2 necessary requirement for loan of sood mortgage of sood lease of sood the loan lease mortgage giver can rape the mother daughters sisters wives of the loan sood wanted for money.

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Agha Ata

Apr 13, 2015 03:14am

Nawaz should sacrifice his friendship for Pakistan. Lightening does not strike the same point the second time. He may never need Saudis again.

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Muzaffar OKlahoma

Apr 13, 2015 03:45am

It's the parliament.I do not think the sharifs have the brains to think this deep.

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AXH

Apr 13, 2015 04:12am

I am not too sure if I would want to give this much credit of political maturity to Nawaz. You have to understand that Nawaz is personally in debt to the Saudis for their help to bail him out over a decade ago. I don't fathom that Nawaz had either the courage or the will to turn down anything that the Saudis might ask for because in doing that, he might also shut the doors for him ever able to be bailed out again. It is also highly likely that the generals had declined to step into this Saudi fiasco. What remains to be seen now is the backlash that Pakistan might receive, mostly on he economic front, for declining to take a side in this proxy war.

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SMK

Apr 13, 2015 10:34am

@Hasan Sharifs have nothing to do with this. If it was for NS, he certainly would have obliged SA. It is the public opinion and threat of backlash for Govt. that did it!!

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Ramesh

Apr 13, 2015 11:17am

Pakistan is dependent on gulf countries. That too heavily. The consequences of this "betrayal" (as per the Arab countries) by Pakistan is not getting understood by all concerned in the country...left, centre, right, none.

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Baloch

Apr 16, 2015 09:08am

The author is being naive. This was the military's decision, not Nawaz Sharif's. In Pakistan, the military now calls the shots in security and foreign policy matters.

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knightshiner

Apr 20, 2015 12:04am

@a_writer well said ! It may also turn out to be the biggest blunder.
We have nothing to gain by Supporting Iran or Huthis and every thing to lose by choosing not to support an ally Saudi (backed by America).
We could have used this as an opportunity to gain new Saudi Leadership's confidence and and demanded the compensation for participating in War. Americans always use war to benefit their industries and economy. We'd have done the same.

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knightshiner

Apr 20, 2015 12:05am

@Shoaib N. good point

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knightshiner

Apr 20, 2015 12:07am

@M they have financed the Pakistani nuclear program. Gave free oil for years during WEstern sanctions. What are you talking about?