Challengers in the King's court

To hear some people talk, this year's Academy Awards might as well be cancelled because The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is a shoe-in for best picture, best director and a passel of other Oscars.

Not so fast. There remains a significant faction within the academy who believe that any movie starring Hobbits, elves and trolls just can't be important enough to immortalise. After all, Frodo only saved Middle-Earth; Seabiscuit pulled America out of the Great Depression, for goodness' sake.

And so it goes. Look for The Lord of the Rings to clean up when nominations are announced on January 27. How many awards it will win is a question to be answered on February 29 when the winners are announced at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles.

Here's how the top nominations should play out (and would play out if academy voters ever acknowledged that comedy can be an art form, too).

BEST PICTURE

Sure bets:The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Probable:Mystic River. Possible:Cold Mountain,Lost in Translation,Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World and Seabiscuit. Long shots:The Last Samurai, House of Sand and Fog, In America and Big Fish. Likely to be nominated but probably shouldn't be:Cold Mountain. Anthony Minghella's deeply flawed epic isn't any more accomplished than the overly sombre Seabiscuit or the lumbering The Last Samurai, but it will make the cut simply because of Miramax's relentless campaigning. Should be nominated but likely won't be:Finding Nemo. The academy created a category for animated feature films three years ago, almost ensuring that they'll never be nominated in the more prestigious best-picture category. A shame since no other movie last year matched the beautiful artistry and heartfelt emotion of Nemo. Analysis:LOTR: ROTK remains the prohibitive favourite, with Clint Eastwood's Mystic River nipping at its heels. After that, it's a question of which epics will make the cut and whether there will be any room left for the intimate indie favorite, Lost in Translation. Prediction:LOTR: ROTK, Mystic River, Lost in Translation, Master and Commander, Cold Mountain.

BEST ACTOR

Sure bets: Sean Penn, Mystic River. Probable: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation; Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog. Possible: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean; Jude Law, Cold Mountain; Russell Crowe, Master and Commander; Sean Penn, 21 Grams. Long shots: Tom Cruise, The Last Samurai; Paul Giamatti, American Splendor; Jack Nicholson, Something's Gotta Give. Likely to be nominated but probably shouldn't be: As great as Crowe was in Master and Commander, I'd rather see his slot go to another seafarer ... Should be nominated but likely won't be: ... Depp, who carried Pirates with his rogue star turn. Take away Depp and the movie would run aground. Analysis: A weaker field than normal. Essentially the front-runners are two great actors - Penn and Murray - who live outside of Hollywood and (outwardly, at least) don't seem to give a rip about the Oscars. Penn's work in Mystic River will be recognised over 21 Grams because of the Eastwood connection and the simple fact that people like River better. Prediction: Penn, Murray, Kingsley, Law, Crowe.

BEST ACTRESS

Sure bets: Charlize Theron, Monster; Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give. Probable: Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog; Naomi Watts, 21 Grams. Possible: Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain; Samantha Morton, In America; Helen Mirren, Calendar Girls. Long shots: Cate Blanchett, Veronica Guerin; Scarlett Johansson, Girl With a Pearl Earring. Likely to be nominated but probably shouldn't be: Kidman. Nothing against this wonderful actress, but she was miscast in Cold Mountain, serving as little more than a graceful model for the movie's line of vintage designer clothes. Should be nominated but likely won't be: Jamie Lee Curtis. Comic turns don't come more expert or exuberant than Curtis' marvellous performance as the gawky teen trapped in mum's body in the punchy and potent remake of Freaky Friday. Analysis: A two-woman race between an actress who we didn't know had it in her (Theron) and a veteran who hasn't been showcased this well in years (Keaton). Prediction: Theron, Keaton, Connelly, Watts, Kidman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sure bets: Tim Robbins, Mystic River. Probable: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler; Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams. Possible: Paul Bettany, Master and Commander; Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai; William H. Macy, Seabiscuit; Albert Finney, Big Fish; Sean Astin, LOTR: ROTK.Long shots: Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass; Eugene Levy, A Mighty Wind; Bill Nighy, Love Actually. Likely to be nominated but probably shouldn't be: His loyalty to Mr Frodo notwithstanding, Sean Astin's Sam isn't the most complex of creations. Dependable, determined, but not nearly as much fun as Gollum. Should be nominated but likely won't be: Levy. He somehow managed to give his spaced-out folkie a sense of dignity that made you feel for the guy while revelling in his blissed-out cluelessness. Analysis: Between front-runners Robbins and Baldwin, it's looking like the acceptance speech for this category could turn into a US election-year rant for the ages. Prediction: Robbins, Baldwin, Del Toro, Astin, Watanabe.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sure bets: Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain.Probable: Holly Hunter, Thirteen. Possible: Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River; Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April; Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog. Long shots: Hope Davis, American Splendor; Melissa Leo, 21 Grams. Likely to be nominated but probably shouldn't be: Yes, Zellweger stole every scene she had in Cold Mountain. That's because she was acting like some unholy mix of Ado Annie and Granny Clampett, which would be fine if this was a remake of The Beverly Hillbillies, but it seems positively freakish in Minghella's self-consciously serious epic. Should be nominated but likely won't be: If academy members disdain comedy, they positively loathe vocal turns in animated movies. So don't look for Ellen DeGeneres to get any love here, even though her work in Finding Nemo was a marvel of timing and improvisation. Analysis: The early money is on Ado Annie, but don't bet the farm. This is a category that usually surprises. (Melissa Leo, anyone?) Prediction: Johansson, Zellweger, Harden, Hunter, Leo.

BEST DIRECTOR

Sure bets: Peter Jackson, LOTR: ROTK; Clint Eastwood, Mystic River. Probable: Peter Weir, Master and Commander; Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation. Possible:: Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain; Gary Ross, Seabiscuit; Ed Zwick, The Last Samurai. Long shots: Tim Burton, Big Fish; Jim Sheridan, In America. Likely to be nominated but probably shouldn't be: Ross and Minghella, neither of whom managed to do justice to their source material. They're a coin toss for the fifth and final slot, a nomination that should go to ... Should be nominated but likely won't be:... Burton, whose Big Fish was a triumph of emotion and imagination. Analysis: Will Jackson get his due for the LOTR trilogy? Or will the academy spread the wealth, giving LOTR best picture and the directing award to the well-liked living legend, Eastwood? It's the most intriguing category on the board this year. Prediction: Jackson, Eastwood, Weir, Coppola, Minghella.