theadore wrote:The idea that a nation, particularly one like Russia can't spot an empty threat when they see one is a bit ridiculous. The very idea of a western invasion of Russia is laughable, we lack the means as well as the appitite for it.

It's only an empty threat if you refuse to back it up. Which is what Corbyn is doing.

If the threat was so empty, Russia wouldn't have given two fucks about the Ukraine joining Nato; however they did, leading to military action to shore up their own line of defence.

Should both Corbyn and Trump end up in power, I think Russia would invade the Baltic countries fairly shortly after.

Great results for Labour last night - not only did they hang on to Stoke with a reduced majority over a shambolic UKIP challenge, they also bravely surrendered a safe-seat they've held for 80 years to give a gain in a by-election for a governing party for the first time in 35 years.

Which is what you expect from a by election. By elections are typically about the opposition taking seats. Having the best performance by the government in a by election since 1966 and the first by election gain by any government since 1982, says a great deal about the state of the opposition. Even Labour MPs agree, see Woodcock's comments.

The biggest fail from these by elections are for UKIP: in supposedly the Brexit capital of Britain they could only manage 79 more votes than the Conservatives.

Even people who already hated Corbyn say its a disaster... quelle surprise. (#champagnesocialist)

Still - poor result for Labour... think the anti-nuclear stance is more of a reason than the failings as a leader for corbyn in Copeland... but it's still not looking particularly great. Much worse for UKIP... Paul Nuttall always seemed a terrible choice for leader - and its difficult to see how he can take them anywhere after this (which is probably the best thing for the rest of us).

Labour need to get over themselves and go down the progressive pact route with the other parties - there is no future in their current policy of not having any strong feelings either way about anything really although we don't like the Government that much but thanks for asking.

theadore wrote:Much worse for UKIP... Paul Nuttall always seemed a terrible choice for leader - and its difficult to see how he can take them anywhere after this (which is probably the best thing for the rest of us).

Ethiaa wrote:Labour need to get over themselves and go down the progressive pact route with the other parties - there is no future in their current policy of not having any strong feelings either way about anything really although we don't like the Government that much but thanks for asking.

Indeed, I think that's the crux of it. It's easy to say Copeland was down to the unique circumstances with nuclear policy, but Labour's nuclear policy is muddled. They were under threat in Stoke because their EU policy is muddled. Corbyn's a middle-class socialist's wet dream of a politician, but he's always been at odds with his party and can't direct them. John McDonnell seems to think that disagreeing with everything and everybody is the only policy he needs as Shadow Chancellor. Abbott and Thornberry embarrass themselves nearly every time they open their mouths. The only thing the Labour party seems consistent on is that the NHS could be better, but they don't offer answers, and enough of the public are aware that that's because they don't have any.

May's been pretty awful since taking over the PM job, she should be under unbearable pressure from the opposition. And yet the Tories are miles ahead in the opinion polls and taking a safe Labour seat in a by election. It's happening because none of the other parties are offering a credible alternative that will appeal to a majority of people. They all seem to be trying to see who can shoot themselves in the foot the best.

Indeed. I'm reading that he's actually changed his mind on that article in the time between him writing it last week and it getting published online. When I said he disagreed with everybody, I wasn't actually including himself...

And she probably doesn't see what's wrong there... Not least that Watson is correct to call Momentum hard left, whereas it's absurd to decribe him as a right-winger. But I don't really expect anything else from them.

Meanwhile, it's a bit sickening to see tributes to McGuiness for his part in the peace process in Northern Ireland that don't acknowledge he was part of why there wasn't peace.