Cameron's railway investment claims more 1950s than Victorian

The civil service has admitted that repeated claims by the Cabinet that the government is investing more in the railways than at any time since Victorian era are in fact as inventive as the Victorian period itself.

The prime minister and five other cabinet ministers – including the chancellor George Osborne, the deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, the Treasury chief secretary Danny Alexander, and two transport secretaries – have all made the same boast at various points in the past 18 months.

Alexander's claim, during the Spending Review announcement on 27 June, piqued the curiosity of the Labour MP and Victorian historianTristram Hunt, who wrote to him asking for the historical and statistical basis of the assertion.

Great Western Railway workers in Swindon in 1875. Labour MP and Victorian historian Tristram Hunt is to blame for the government's investment admission. Photograph: Hulton Archive

The civil service has admitted that repeated claims by the Cabinet that the government is investing more in the railways than at any time since Victorian era are in fact as inventive as the Victorian period itself.

The prime minister and five other cabinet ministers – including the chancellor George Osborne, the deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, the Treasury chief secretary Danny Alexander, and two transport secretaries – have all made the same boast at various points in the past 18 months.

Alexander's claim, during the Spending Review announcement on 27 June, piqued the curiosity of the Labour MP and Victorian historian Tristram Hunt, who wrote to him asking for the historical and statistical basis of the assertion.

Alexander sent back a lengthy answer admitting that prior to the publication of July 2012's Rail Investment Strategy (RIS) the only comparable national rail investment plan since the Victorian era was the British Rail modernisation of 1955.

The response admits, by way of a rather lengthy historical exegesis, that the government has little way of knowing the level of investment prior to 1951.

The answer states: "British railways developed in the Victorian era and early 20th century into over a hundred medium- to large-sized railway undertakings and the majority of these were grouped into four main privately-owned companies in 1923. Each of these had its own investment plans and cycles. These four companies were merged and nationalised in 1947."

It goes on to say the government judges its current investment is larger than the 1955 plan. It reasons: "The 1955 plan covered the whole rail industry, including rolling stock and operations, whereas the RIS [the current government's rail investment plan] covers just rail infrastructure.

"The enhancement component of the 1955 plan at today's values is calculated to be less than £15bn; and delivery of the RIS will take five years, whereas the 1955 plan included improvements which slipped into the 70s or were never delivered."

The Treasury civil servants then list £64bn in coalition investment on the railways covering 10 years.

This includes £16bn recently committed to capital expenditure in HS2 between 2015-16 and 2020-21, and the £15bn funding provided to Crossrail. It also includes over £32bn in support for the rail network from 2010 to 2019 – which includes support for the delivery of the more than £9bn programme of enhancements announced in July 2012.

Hunt said he was writing to the Office of National Statistics to investigate the government's claims. He said: "This is increasingly a faith-based government rather than an evidence-based one. Not content with inventing statistics, the government is intent on reinventing the past. For Danny Alexander to think he can be mentioned in the same breath as Isambard Kingdom Brunel shows an audacity of hope. Moreover, the Victorians invested consistently right across the country rather than just pump priming the south-east."

The author and rail expert Christian Wolmar also questioned the government's assertions: "The claim … relies on adding up the figures for both renewal and maintenance, which is not really investment, with those for enhancements.

"The 1955 Modernisation Plan envisaged spending £1.24bn – say £28bn in today's money – and was certainly comparable in scope and size to today's levels, and did not include routine maintenance as the current figure used by the government for Network Rail spending does. Moreover, today's industry is privatised and therefore part of these funds come from private sources.

"Still more, the Crossrail figure includes the levy on London businesses for Crossrail, which is not central government funding, and nor is the support by Transport for London paid out of the local council tax. And HS2 may never happen or could be delayed, given the growing opposition."

What they said ...David Cameron, 26 July 2012: "We're making the biggest investment in our rail network since the Victorian era."

Nick Clegg, 16 July 2012 : "This is the biggest expansion in railways in over 150 years, with more than £9bn of investment across the country. "

George Osborne, 16 July 2012 "This government is making more funds available to invest in rail projects than at any time since the Victorian era."

Justine Greening, then transport secretary, 16 July 2012: "This is the largest investment since Victorian times and it shows we are committed to the railways, not just now, but in the long term."