From MacTavish to Chiarelli, Oilers hockey bosses vindicated for belief in Draisaitl

Hockey world sees what some here have long known: Draisaitl is a beast

I bet that Craig MacTavish and Stu MacGregor, the former GM and head scout of the Edmonton Oilers, woke up this morning feeling vindicated.

The two would have every right. MacTavish and MacGregor were the two who made the call on Edmonton drafting Draisaitl third overall in the 2014 amateur draft.

After Draisaitl’s hat trick and two assists in Game 6 against the fearsome Anaheim Ducks, the entire hockey world now sees the wisdom of that pick.

Here’s Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News: “Edmonton has life because of Draisaitl and the match-up problems he gives the Ducks.”

And Allan Mitchell of Edmonton’s Lowetide blog: “Holy Leon Draisaitl! I have written chapter and verse all year questioning Leon’s ability to push the river, wondering if he can do it. Excuse me while I delete 1,000 posts! What a memorable performance!”

And Barry Petchesky of Deadspin: “It’s taken an explosion in Edmonton’s series against the Ducks—away from McDavid for the last two games—for him to be widely recognized for what he is: One of the best young forwards in the game.”

And Mark Spector of Sportsnet: “He is the Malkin to Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby, the Perry to Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf. Or in this Northern Alberta city, perhaps the Mark Messier to Wayne Gretzky is a better fit.”

Leon Draisaitl #29 and Connor McDavid #97 of the Edmonton Oilers react as they leave the ice after a 4-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks during the second overtime period in Game Five Harry How /
Getty Images

But the praise for Draisaitl hasn’t always been so fulsome.

Even before Edmonton drafted him in 2014, the Oilers were considering trading away the pick for Griffin Reinhart.

As recently as last June, a large number of fans and commentators would have been keen to see him traded away or P.K. Subban.

Heading into the 2016-17 year, many fans and observers doubted he could succeed without Taylor Hall at his side. After Draisaitl did just that, many of the same folks doubted he could succeed without Connor McDavid at his side.

If you’re keen to dig in deeply into all this, what follows in this post are some key moments in Draisaitl’s career, how the experts saw him then, mixed in with my own take at the time:

December 1, 2013, Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson reports on which player the again stinking Oilers will take in the 2014 draft: “Mark this down: the Edmonton Oilers really like Prince Albert Raiders’ German-born six-foot-one 210-pound centre Leon Draisaitl if they’re picking early in the 2014 NHL entry draft and general manager Craig MacTavish hasn’t dealt the first-rounder away.”

March 2, 2014, scouting expert Kyle Woodlief of Redline Report says Draisaitl one of Top 3 in 2014 draft: “The top tier consists of three – maybe four – players, depending on how we feel on a given day. Aaron Ekblad, Leon Draisaitl and Sam Reinhart are in for certain, though their final draft order is still up for grabs. Depending on what day you ask us, Sam Bennett might join the group as well. It’s so close, sometimes it just comes down to our last impression at our most recent viewing.”

March 19 2004, scouting report from the Cult’s Bruce McCurdy after watching Draisaitl play against the Red Deer Rebels: “The big centre (listed as 6’1, 209) was neither overly physically aggressive nor a speedster, but largely impressed this observer with his overall command of the game. The play went through his stick constantly, and for the most part, good or at least promising things developed thereafter. He showed a couple of bursts of what I would term ‘situational speed’ but his ‘A’ game is clearly one of controlling the play rather than pushing it. As I said to my voice recorder at one point, ‘When the puck is on Draisaitl’s stick, he owns it. Even if there’s a guy in his kitchen he’s in full control.’ And later, ‘Very calm with the puck on his stick, not quite nonchalant but knows how much time he’s got, which in this league is a lot. Big and strong and can dangle the puck out of reach of the man who’s on him, pick his spot and distribute.’”

April 16, 2014, my own take after having listened to all the experts: “The Oilers need size, they need a centre, and it’s a good bet Edmonton will go with Draisaitl. My only worry — as infected with memory of all things Oilers as I am — is that Draisaitl will turn out to be more like Jason Bonsignore than Jason Arnott. But, of course, Draisaitl is his own person, an individual. He is master of his fate, the captain of his soul. The kid will write his own story, not follow a narrative from the past.”

April 24, 2014: Terry Jones of the Edmonton Sun reports theOilers might want to trade their first pick (third overall) for Edmonton Oil Kings star defender Griffin Reinhart. “The more you watch Griffin Reinhart the more you wonder. If Aaron Ekblad isn’t available to the Edmonton Oilers when they pick third in the NHL Entry Draft – or even if he is – should they offer their first round draft pick to the New York Islanders for the Edmonton Oil Kings shutdown defenceman? Lord knows the Oilers need a ready-to-play-in-the-NHL shutdown defenceman. And if you’ve been watching the Oil Kings this season and especially this playoff season, Reinhart seems to be exactly what they’re looking for.”

My own take at that same time: “I’d prefer this fire be put out. This deal makes little sense. … Reinhart is a smart player, he’s got some skill, he’s hard-working and tough, but at this point I can’t see how his game translates into him being a top-pairing d-man in the NHL, no matter how dominant he is in WHL corners right now…I just don’t see the high quality skill and skating in Reinhart’s game that would merit such a trade.”

May 16, 2014, draft experts not so keen on Draisaitl: “The public draft prognosticators have made their thinking clear about the 2014 entry draft and the consensus is that Leon Draisaitl of the Prince Albert Raiders is not one of the top three players available in the draft. NHL Central Scouting, TSN’s Bob McKenzie and The Hockey News have the big German kid rated fourth, ISS has him sixth and ESPN’s Corey Pronman seventh. TSN’s Craig Button (now has) Draisaitl at fourth overall.”

July 7, 2014, my take after seeing him live in a four-on-four game at the Oilers rookie camp. “He plays a simple game, driving hard to the net, winning the puck, shielding it and making a quick, hard and accurate pass, very often off of his backhand…. Those backhand passes were so sweet, you’ll put on five pounds just watching them…All that said, at this point I can see how he’d benefit from another year of major junior hockey, in terms of building up both his skills and his confidence. His skating speed and agility are average and can use work.”

Nov. 26, 2014, my first quarter report card for the Oilers in that wretched 2o14-15 season under Dallas Eakins: “Leon Draisaitl, D+. He’s playing a cautious and effective defensive game but hasn’t been nearly assertive enough on the attack.”

Dec. 9, 2014, a full report on Draisaitl’s rookie play, when he scored just nine points in 37 games, mainly playing on a line with Nail Yakupov (who would later complain that until Derek Roy arrived later that same year, he didn’t get to play with a “really good” centre): “Draisaitl’s counting numbers are indeed weak. He’s not putting up nearly a point per game like Sam Gagner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins did as 18-year-old NHL rookies. But he is managing to help create a decent number of scoring chances. And Draisaitl’s two-way game is already as good as anything we saw from Sam Gagner in his seven years as an Oilers centre… Draisaitl, like RNH, is a glue player, someone who keeps his team going, who makes his teammates look better by passing the puck to them at the right moment and right on their stick, by covering off passing lanes, by backchecking, by providing proper spacing on puck support. He plays smart for a rookie and he should get smarter… For now, Draisailt is hanging in there in the NHL. He’s not killing the Oilers, as some suggest.”

Nail Yakupov #10 and Leon Draisaitl #29 of the Edmonton Oilers.

June 1, 2015, Draisaitl quoted by Wayne Moore of Castanet.net after he was sent back to junior andwon MVP of the Memorial Cup tournament, but his Kelowna Rockets losing in overtime in the finals 2-to-1. “It doesn’t soften anything,” said Draisaitl of the individual award. “This is a team game. This is not about one-man shows or about one guy winning MVP. I would have much rather won the Memorial Cup than win this trophy.”

My own take at that time: “He’s one of the most unselfish players with the puck that you’ll find, especially for a top scoring junior. At the junior level, he’s like a Bill Walton of hockey the way he plays, holding the puck in hockey’s high post, just over the blueline and on the half-wall, then ripping off passes here, there and everywhere to teammates in good scoring position. He lives to make that great pass.”

June 2, 2015, my final take on his 2014-15 season in the NHL and major junior: “Draisaitl has become a dominating force in junior. That said, his game isn’t going to appeal to fans who want their hockey players in perpetual, sweaty motion. He’s the kind who rarely hits, even as he constantly absorbs hits to make plays. He uses his size and strength to win stick battles for the puck and to protect the puck, but Draisaitl’s game isn’t about running wild-eyed at the other team – it’s about keeping his eyes up and scanning for his own breaking teammates so he can pass them the puck for an excellent scoring chance. In this way, he seems a good fit to play with Oilers forwards who love to shoot and carry the puck, players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov and the incoming McDavid. Draisaitl can help make them look good, and that’s my best bet on what he will be doing next season.”

Nov. 16, 2015, after Draisaitl was recalled from the American Hockey League and got off to a strong start on a line with Taylor Hall: “So far this year, Draisaitl is chipping in on 6.3 scoring chances per game. This puts him in the category of being a scoring chances machine, a player who is contributing to enough chances that even with average puck luck has a shot at scoring a point per game, an impressive accomplishment in today’s dead puck NHL.

Dec. 2, 2015, Draisaitl ranks second behind Taylor Hall in my Oilers power rankings: “He’s built for the modern NHL, where the “H” stands for hooking, holding and high-sticking. The game is plagued with interference and stick work, but Draisaitl has the size and, so far, determination to fight through it and create scoring chances.”

May 2, 2016, final report card for the 2015-16 season: “Leon Draisaitl, B+. He’s big, young, mobile, highly-skilled and looks willing to play a two-way game. What’s not to like?” Draisaitl also ranked fifth overall on my power rankings for Oilers players that year, behind only McDavid, Hall, Andrej Sekera and Cam Talbot.

June 23, 2016, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector on the rumour that Edmonton could get P.K. Subban from Montreal in a package including Draisaitl: “If you have a chance to land a true No. 1 defenceman to work with Connor McDavid, you can’t let it get away — even if the cost is steep,” Spector wrote. “That truly would be a blockbuster trade, with the Oilers No. 4 overall pick and young centre Leon Draisaitl rumoured to the asking price… Edmonton lacks either a No. 1 or 2 blue-liner, so this is something Chiarelli can’t afford to pass up. Especially when one assumes the Oilers might not have another Top 5 draft pick to peddle for years to come.” Added hockey writer Jonathan Willis: “A deal bringing Subban to Edmonton would be the biggest trade involving the Oilers since the Pronger transactions. It would instantly revitalize the club’s blue line, and as long as such a trade didn’t include Taylor Hall it’s hard to imagine a plausible scenario where the Oilers would be worse off as a team in the aftermath.”

June 30, 2016, my take when it became clear the Oilers had turned down the asking price of Draisaitl-plus-plus for Subban. “Me, I would have traded Hall plus a bit more for Subban, but I would not have met Montreal’s reported demands.”

Sept. 17, 2016, On Oilers Now, two Sportsnet analysts, Drew Remenda and Louie DeBrusk, said that Draisaitl has it in him to be one of the 25 best players in the NHL: Draisaitl is the kind of guy who likes to prove people wrong, Remenda said. “Those guys are so easy to coach and so great to be around, because all you’ve got to do is say something negative to him and he’s going to go, ‘Oh yeah, OK.’ And then go out and stick it to you. That’s what they thrive on. They thrive on that negativity around them.” And DeBrusk: “Listen, he’s a big kid, but he still is a kid so until he matures and really recognizes how to use that size and strength that he has and even get stronger, that’s when he’s really going to be a dominant player. There is more there in Leon Draisaitl. There’s no question he can tap into that. A top 25 player in the league? Sure. Why not?”

December 10, 2016, on the first part of Draisaitl’s 2016-17 season: “One of the big questions heading into this season for the Edmonton Oilers was how well young centre Leon Draisaitl would do without that great offensive driver Taylor Hall on his wing. Draisaitl, after all, played 878 of his 1038 five-on-five minutes last year on a line with Hall, who is well known for raising the attacking performance and numbers of all those around him. Draisaitl put up 34 of his 37 five-on-five points with Hall last year, reports HockeyAnalysis.com… We’re now 30 games into the new season, a large enough sample size to get a fair read on Draisaitl without Hall, and it’s safe to the say the big German kid is more than alright. Indeed, he’s become an offensive driver in his own right, raising the game of those around him many nights. He’s playing powerful and sharp hockey on the attack, smart and tough in his own zone. The numbers are awfully good with Draisaitl this year, starting with his basic points per game. Last year he got 51 points in 72 games, 0.72 points per game. So far this year he’s at 26 points in 30 games, 0.87 per game… Without Hall to help drive the attack, Draisaitl is at +0.75 Grade A chances per game, which represents a slight improvement over last season. He’s dropped off a wee bit on contributing to Grade A chances on the attack, but his defensive play is better.”

Epilogue:

In the end, Draisaitl finished the year with 77 points in 82 games. He chipped in on 5.8 scoring chances per game, the same level that Taylor Hall used to achieve in his best years with the Oilers, though Hall was never close to being the defender that Draisaitl is. I had him ranked third in the Oilers player power rankings, behind only McDavid and Cam Talbot.

In the playoffs, Draisaitl is now second to Evgeni Malkin in scoring.

His game has really picked up against the Ducks, with the five point night being the exclamation point, and in the second post in this series looking at the development of Draisaitl’s game we’ll look at how he’s taken off since Oilers coach Todd McLellan took him off Connor McDavid’s line and asked him to lead his own line, a move that was debated at length by me and others throughout the 2016-17 regular season

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