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Re: Next seven games

Peterborough did go down on 54 points a few years ago, and before that Leceister went down on 53, but usually 45 points is enough. This season looks like being a lower total so 3 wins should see us safe.

Re: Next seven games

Originally Posted by Ravi

Peterborough did go down on 54 points a few years ago, and before that Leceister went down on 53, but usually 45 points is enough. This season looks like being a lower total so 3 wins should see us safe.

45 points is too few. 50 should just about do it.

The year Peterborough went down with 54 was a very tight league - 79 was enough to finish second and there's a high likelihood based on current PPG that 79 points will only get you 6th this year. Points are more concentrated at the top is what I'm trying to get across - infact there's currently four teams at the bottom averaging 1PPG or less at the moment. It won't stay that way, but a big difference on the 54 points from 46 and still going down as the 3rd worst team.

Re: Next seven games

Actually just looking through recent previous seasons, apart from the Peterborough year, average points for 3rd bottom is around 43. That really surprises me.

Still, I wouldn't be comfortable sitting on 46 points and saying that'd be enough - it's too tight to call and there's still the opportunity for Wigan or Blackburn to turn it around. Four wins for me please.

Re: Next seven games

One thing I have learned from being a 12 man friendly weekly results forecasting competition is that to forecast correctly one week's results (17 matches selected by the previous week's most successful player) is that it is virtually impossible to get more than 40% of the games forecast correctly (and that means just the result, not the actual scores).
We have a column called "Zero" where the person selecting the games for the week tries to forecast 100% incorrect - and that has never happened in the 3 years we have been doing this.
We also have a column called "Rando" where we use a set of random number tables to predict the results.
Rando is a regular winner!
So, to forecast the next 7 games for Forest is virtually impossible.
I agree with the pessimists who think we will be lucky to get more than the odd draw.
But as I said, my experience with 11 other people is that games are by and large unpredictable.
That's one of the beauties remaining in the desert that is modern soccerball.

Re: Next seven games

Brighton H Would have drew with Billy
Brentford H Would have won with Billy
Burton A Would have drew with Billy
Derby H Would have won with Billy
Preston A Would have drew with Billy
Wolves A Would have lost with Billy
Huddersfield H Would have won with Billy

12pts under Davies.

“All the world will be your enemy, Prince with a Thousand Enemies, and whenever they catch you, they will kill you. But first they must catch you, digger, listener, runner, prince with the swift warning. Be cunning and full of tricks and your people shall never be destroyed.”

Re: Next seven games

Originally Posted by Alf-ugginblowupyourbakery

Brighton H Would have won with Billy
Brentford H Would have won with Billy
Burton A Would have lost with Billy
Derby H Would have won with Billy
Preston A Would have lost with Billy
Wolves A Would have lost with Billy
Huddersfield H Would have won with Billy