Mumbai terror strikes may lead to Pak destabilization, says Stratfor

Published: Saturday, November 29, 2008, 10:53 [IST]

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Washington, Nov 29 : Stratfor, the US-based private research agency has reportedly said that Pakistan may face 'massive destabilisation' under pressure from India and the US as fallout of the serial terror attacks in Mumbai.

In an article posted on its website, it warned that the attacks might also bring India and Pakistan back to the brink of a nuclear confrontation, like the military standoff that happened between the two countries in 2002 after a terrorist attack on Indian Parliament.

Delving into the geo-political fallout of the Mumbai attacks, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) said in its analysis: "If the attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants - as it appears - the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the US into the fray."

Stressing that India is already under enormous pressure to respond to the attacks, it said, "Events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well - with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities."

Stratfor, which specialises in providing focused insight and actionable intelligence to help governments prepare for uncertainties, said in its article the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the US is likely to follow suit.

"Whether it is the current government in India that reacts or the one that succeeds doesn't matter ... given the circumstances, massive destabilisation (of Pakistan) is possible - (which is) never a good thing with a nuclear power," said the Stratfor analysis, and added that the Indians and Americans would have a 'joint interest' in forcing the Pakistani government 'to act decisively and immediately'.