The Liberals are clearly taking the forthcoming Henley by-election seriously, as evidenced by this YouTube video posted on Saturday. And so, of course, are Labour, I hasten to add.

But wouldn’t it be rather wonderful if Smug Dave’s air of inevitability were dented by a loss here? Even a reduced majority would be bad news for the Conservatives. I expect they’re taking no chances. But it must be nerve-wracking, and a little inconvenient, to have this particular fight on their doorstep so soon after Crewe. On the one hand, they can use their good result there as a springboard for Henley. But on the other hand, a loss or a reduction in support would overshadow their recent successes and undermine Dave’s Long March to Power.

I think a loss unlikely, but a dent in the majority quite probable. It will be an interesting test of whether St Dave can appeal to the traditional Tory voter. I’m not quite so sure that Crewe was a one-off – it was more to do with a general dissatisfaction with how we’re performing at the moment, how the economy is, a dodgy campaign theme and renewed vigour by the Tories who threw everything at the campaign to win it. They’ve come alive to the possibilities of by-elections in a way not seen for about 30 years. The Lib Dem machine packed up and went home fairly early on – if not home, then at least on to Henley – leaving the ‘anti-Labour’ vote to coalesce behind the Tory.