Climate Change Desert

Climate and related environmental changes expected

The Desert subregion is classified by the CSIRO, according to Hobbs et al. classification, as “Dry” (where the moisture index & growth index is high in warm season, low in cool season), and “Arid” according to ABARE (2012). In this region the most likely impacts of climate change will manifest as:

Fire will be important but limited by growth rates and grazing

More summer and autumn rain may increase suitability for new species from north and new pasture species

Potential for overgrazing high as productivity decreases with reduced annual average rainfall and increasing temperatures

Pastoralism may decline with some retirement of drying areas

Reduced ground and surface water would have big impact on agriculture and refuge dependent native flora and fauna.

Projections

Average annual increase in temperature in the range of +1°C to 2.5°C by 2050

Summer +1°C to 2.5°C

Autumn +1°C to 2°C

Winter +1°C to 2°C

Spring +1°C to 2.5°C

Average annual change in rainfall to decrease by -2% to 10% by 2050

Summer -2% to +5%

Autumn -2% to +10%

Winter -5% to +10%

Spring -5% to +10%

Average annual relative humidity to generally decrease by -0.1% to -2% 2050

Summer -0.5% to -1%

Autumn -0.5% to -1%

Winter -1% to -2%

Spring -1% to -2%

Annual average wind speed to remain constant through to a 2% increase in the South by 2050

Summer -2% to +2% (remaining constant or decreasing across the Northern and middle of the region with a potential increase to the South)

Autumn -2% to +2%

Winter -10% to +5% (The north of the region remains unchanged with the central belt seeing a 5% increase and the Southern section now seeing up to a 10% decrease)

Spring no change to +5%

Annual average potential evapotranspiration will remain unchanged or increase by up to 4% by 2050