As always, bear in mind that Gallup is only one pollster, and not the most reliable one at that, and that sub-samples tend to be smaller sample sizes than an entire poll. That said, a comparison between two polls by the same pollster at different points in time is an apples-to-apples comparison, and so of some use in tracking trends. I'd supplement this with similar data from other pollsters, but surprisingly few of the daily, weekly or monthly presidential-approval tracking polls provide this kind of breakdown on a regular basis (although a mid-November Quinnipiac poll showed Obama's approval underwater with Hispanics, 41-47, compared to 67-18 approval a year ago). That's precisely why Gallup's results are so interesting.

Here's Gallup's chart, which measures the net drop in points among different groups in their approval of Obama between his post-spring-2009 high water-mark in December 2012 and November 2013:

Bearing in mind that some of these are overlapping groups, you can see not only that Hispanics register a 23-point drop in approval, the largest of any group, but others near the top are also essential elements of any winning Democratic coalition: the youngest voters (18-29 year olds), the poorest (incomes under $24,000), the least educated (high school or less), various stripes of moderates and independents, women, the unmarried, the irreligious and voters in the Northeast and Midwest. Obama has lost the least support among those where he had the least support to start with: conservative Republicans, conservatives, Republicans. He's dropped at least 8 points among everyone else.

But a second way to look at these numbers is in percentage terms, to adjust for the fact that it's easier to lose more support among groups where you had more to start with. So, here are those figures:

VOTER SEGMENT

12-Dec

13-Nov

% Decline

Independents w/no party leaning

41

28

-32%

Liberal/Moderate Republicans

26

18

-31%

Hispanics

75

52

-31%

Independents

49

34

-31%

Conservative Republicans

7

5

-29%

Less than $24,000 income

64

46

-28%

High sch education or less

54

39

-28%

Republicans

11

8

-27%

Midwestern residents

52

38

-27%

Moderates

61

45

-26%

Non-Hispanic whites

42

31

-26%

Eastern residents

59

44

-25%

18- to 29-year-olds

61

46

-25%

Women

57

43

-25%

Attend Church weekly

45

34

-24%

Not married

62

47

-24%

50- to 64-year-olds

52

40

-23%

Conservatives

26

20

-23%

ALL AMERICANS

53

41

-23%

Seldom/Never attend church

58

45

-22%

30- to 49-year olds

54

42

-22%

Attend church monthly

54

42

-22%

Married

45

35

-22%

$24,000 to <$60,000 annual income

51

40

-22%

Southern residents

48

38

-21%

Nonwhites

82

65

-21%

Men

49

39

-20%

Postgraduates

60

48

-20%

$90,000 or more annual income

50

40

-20%

Western residents

56

45

-20%

65-year-olds and older

44

36

-18%

Some college education

50

41

-18%

College graduate only

50

41

-18%

Moderate Democrats

89

73

-18%

Conservative Democrats

79

65

-18%

Liberals

84

70

-17%

$60,000 to <$90,000 annual income

49

41

-16%

Democrats

91

78

-14%

Liberal Democrats

93

82

-12%

Blacks

92

83

-10%

Here, we see unaffiliated independents - perhaps unsurprisingly - at the top of the list, along with liberal Republicans, but Hispanics in a very close third place, with the poor, the uneducated and Midwesterners also high on the list (the latter is a danger sign for Democrats in Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota next fall). By contrast, on a percentage basis, the three least-shaken elements of Obama's base are - unsurprisingly - black voters, among whom he's lost just 10% of his prior support, and liberal Democrats and Democrats as a whole, the only other two groups to show less than a 16% decline - and the dropoff among those two groups would doubtless be higher if you excluded his unshakeable support among black voters.

The dramatic drop in support from the U.S. Hispanic community should not come as a surprise to anyone. Instead of effectively addressing Immigration, the slow economy, the lack of access to affordable care, and other critical issues over these past five years, President Obama has delivered mostly empty rhetoric and a record of stagnant Unemployment , diminished household incomes and a tepid GDP growth rate. Americans deserve better.

It is not too late for a real agenda focused on private sector job growth, market-based health reform that empowers doctors and patients, and true bipartisan cooperation on Immigration reform. For too long now Hispanics have been called on by this Administration for political points, and our community is tired of the broken promises and bad policies that have left many of us worse off.

The immediate lesson here is that, for all the Democrats' bluster, Hispanics are simply not African-Americans. They may have identified to some degree with him against his critics as the first non-white President, they may like some of the things the Democrats stand for, and they may even feel - not without reason - that Republicans want to kick them out of the country. But none of that alone is enough to make them permanent Democratic partisans if they don't see results.

Republicans face a variety of challenges in appealing to Hispanic voters, even moreso than some of the other voter groups that are increasingly disenchanted with Obama. They will not be cheap dates for the GOP. But Democrats are learning that they are growing increasingly tired of being told to just sit back and pull the lever for Obama's pursuit of MacGuffins. Republicans have an opportunity, if they will work for it.

LOL at quite possibly the most superficial poll analysis in the history of this website.

You must be busy at work. Fortunately, you have three years to get some posts in the queue bashing President Hillary Clinton.

Posted by: Jimmy Mac at
December 9, 2013 10:49 PM

Crank-You must be doing things right 'cause the liberal trolls always seem to respond to your posts! Keep poking them in the eye until they see the light!

Posted by: Lee at
December 10, 2013 11:24 AM

You know, Crank, I would think by now, your repeated predictions of the President's political demise would give you pause before you launc again. But I often forget the hypnotic effects of the right wing echo chamber.

I can't wait for the inevitable cheerleading for the newest tea party flavor.

Posted by: magrooder at
December 10, 2013 9:52 PM

If you choose to disbelieve the polling, Magrooder, that is your choice.

If you believe being a sucker doesn't work for everybody, Magrooder, that is your choice.
---------------
Crank, on the other hand, just KNOWS the Tea Party is nothing at all like the Republican Party. And Crank has the proof, he believes it.

Posted by: Berto at
December 12, 2013 2:56 PM

Yes, let's go all in based on the polls:

January 23, 2006

POLITICS: Right Wing News 2008 GOP Blogger Poll

John Hawkins has posted the results of his poll of conservative bloggers' preferred 2008 candidates. The top three most wanted and most unwanted, by percentage of the vote:

Read the whole thing. The top 3 most-wanted are pretty much in the order I voted them, although I remain substantially subject to persuasion on their merits, especially Rudy and Allen. I also voted for Frist and Hagel among the least-wanted (along with Newt and Tancredo; I didn't even bother voting against Pataki), but I'm much more accepting of McCain as the nominee.