A little later than I prefer, but I thought some Eastern Time sports fans may be up due to the baseball.

I honestly wasn’t surprised by anything in the CFP rankings, so that’s why I didn’t write a special blog last night. I do have something I wanted to rant a little bit about before getting to the SEC Wednesday blog though.

I was confident a team with a loss was going to be in the top 4. Obviously I had Ohio St. in the top 4, but A&M was a very close fifth. I guess they felt more comfortable with a loss to Alabama than a loss to Penn St. for obvious reasons.

Although I have them very high—and I’ve discussed why multiple times—I wasn’t expecting Western Michigan to be in the top 20, but I’m encouraged they were ranked at all since the CFP is notoriously skeptical of Group of Five teams.

I’m also encouraged WMU is the top Group of Five (G5) team.

I’m not sure what it will take for the committee to buy into the G5 teams more. Maybe it just needs to try harder to appoint people from G5 backgrounds. G5 teams have won a lot of games out of conference against major teams. They’ve done well in the major bowls in the past. I wanted to just give a list of the results. Pre-bowl records in parentheses:

The G5 teams usually had one fewer loss than the opposition. I would point out that Northern Illinois and Hawaii had atrocious schedules and only got so high on account of their record.

It pre-dated this blog, but I can assure you I was a Hawaii detractor the whole year in 2007, and you may remember how I felt about Northern Illinois. I had the Huskies 17th (behind Florida St.) going into the bowls that year. I had stronger loss penalties than I do this year, so now they would be even lower. It’s not worth the trouble of searching, but I believe I said here that they weren’t really 17th-best.

I’d also like to mention that Northern Illinois went 1-1 against P5 teams in 2012, but the win was against Kansas, which finished 1-11. In 2007, Hawaii’s only game against a P5 opponent was a close win over a Washington team that also finished with a losing record.

This year, by contrast, it appears that both Western Michigan and Boise St. have defeated at least one eventual P5 bowl team apiece. Northwestern still has to win two games, but Purdue and Illinois only have two conference wins combined. The Wildcats also play un-ranked Minnesota, which has the same conference record (3-2) as they do. Western Michigan and Boise St. are both 2-0 against P5 opponents regardless.

Unfortunately, the Texas A&M defense allowed a touchdown after holding the other Aggies to 3 points over the first three quarters. This caused the closest New Mexico St. game against an SEC team other than Kentucky in several years.

Georgia hung tough for a half, but I was very surprised the Bulldogs were shut out by the Gators in the second half.

I knew when South Carolina scored in the fourth quarter, Tennessee most likely was not going to beat the spread, but I thought the Vols would come back to win until the very end.
Thankfully the reverse happened with Auburn, who trailed after every quarter but the fourth, which they won 13-0 to beat the spread.

I mentioned Kentucky earlier. The Wildcats are still not a great team, but they’re beating the spread every week. I don’t know what the bookies were thinking with Missouri.

Similar to last week, I was 5-1 in picking winners and 2-3 against the spread. (Mississippi St. won an FCS game against Samford.) This brings my records to 64-12 overall and 30-35-1 against the spread.

Next Week

Rather than wasting words, I’ll just let you know when I pick an upset win below.

I’m picking Georgia Southern to beat the spread of 27.5 against Ole Miss. It could be a blowout, but the Eagles took Georgia to overtime last year. Ole Miss beat a similar team in Memphis this year but only won by 20. Also this year, Georgia Southern’s only game against a P5 opponent was a 35-24 loss to Georgia Tech.

Despite falling short of the spread against New Mexico St., I think Texas A&M wins by at least 14 this week. The Aggies beat Auburn by 13 (on the road) and Arkansas by 21 (at a neutral site). The only thing that worries me is that the Aggies only won at South Carolina by 11. I’m put somewhat at ease by what I think is the most similar Mississippi St. game, which was when they hosted Auburn about a month ago and lost by 24.

Vanderbilt is a decent team that has fought admirably in the Commodores’ three conference losses so far, but they haven’t played an opponent as good as Auburn yet. If you can lose in Atlanta by 31, you can lose on the Plains by more than 26 (even). Also, I think Arkansas is better than Vanderbilt (albeit not by a whole lot), and I don’t need to recount what happened to them a couple of weeks ago.

Speaking of Arkansas, the Hogs host Florida, which is now on track to win the SEC East. The Gators even have a loss to spare. Arkansas should be fresh after a week off though, and Florida hasn’t performed that great on the road (loss to Tennessee by 10 and beat Vandy by 7). Gators by 3, which is less than the 5.5-point spread.

I think South Carolina is improving and Missouri is getting worse. If it were @Missouri, I’d think about it, but Gamecocks -7 all day long.

With Tennessee, I’ll just go with the win of course since there is no ESPN line for FCS games.

Georgia is favored by 2 over Kentucky. Although the Wildcats always seem to disappoint in the end, they’ve treated me well the past few games while picking Georgia has been a disaster most of the year. Kentucky to win.

Marcus Randall, not to be confused with JaMarcus Russell, may have engineered the “Bluegrass Miracle” in 2002 but could not even get the Tigers on the board against Alabama that year.

Alabama is favored by almost an overtime-safe margin (very rare to win by 8 in OT), so I have to take LSU. The worst two LSU teams of the Miles tenure (2008 and 2014) both lost to the Tide in overtime at home. Other recent home games in the series for LSU were a loss by 4 in 2012 and a win by 3 in 2010. I really don’t think this will be the worst LSU does in the series at home since 2002.

I can’t countenance LSU losing to Alabama again, so I’ll tell myself it won’t happen this year even though the prudent pick is Alabama to win. The best argument I have is the gambler’s fallacy: LSU has to win a marginal game against Alabama at some point; and as I said, I don’t think this is the first team to lose by more than one possession at home to the Tide since 2002, which incidentally was Nick Saban’s worst team at LSU (8-5). I’ve plugged it a few times, but for more on the LSU-Alabama series, you know what to do.

Guess which conference has the fewest losses in non-conference play? (discussion of conference losses will mean non-conference play below)

The SEC has only lost one (Vanderbilt to Georgia Tech) since opening weekend. Five of its 7 losses were against Power-5 opponents. Only the Mississippi St. upset at the hands of South Alabama and Kentucky’s loss to Southern Miss were not to that group.

The Big Ten still has a higher overall average winning percentage, but it has faced twice as many FCS opponents, two of which were victorious. Also, although there are many Power-5 wins, they’re often not against quality opponents. Four of the wins were Duke, Iowa St., Oregon St., and Colorado.

In the SEC, on the other hand, four of the five wins against the Power-5 were against teams that were ranked in the preseason. 78% and 75% aren’t far enough apart to overcome the strength of schedule disparity, so I’d give the SEC a slight edge at this point, but it will depend on some future games, and the SEC will have more of them.

For #3, I’m going to go with the ACC. They played five SEC opponents as well as Oklahoma St. and Oregon. The Pac-12 has similar records against slightly worse teams.

The Big XII is only 15-11 right now. The best wins were over Notre Dame and Pitt. Not only would I put them last among the Power-5, I would also argue the American (AAC) should go ahead.

The bottom tier of conferences is harder to rank. I would say the MAC and MWC are roughly even. The MAC would be ahead if it weren’t for the three FCS losses. The Sun Belt is a little better than CUSA. Mississippi St. is a better key win than Kentucky, and Southern Miss and Ohio are better than Bowling Green and Miami U.

Week 4 Preview

There are a few major inter-conference games this weekend. I already covered the SEC games.

I’ll address the ones going on right now first. If Eastern Michigan beats Wyoming, that could arguably break the MWC/MAC deadlock. TCU vs. SMU is another chance of an upset by the AAC over the Big XII.

Similar to TCU, Boise St. is only a story if they lose, but it’s still good to get a road Pac-12 win even if it is against Oregon St. Central Michigan is another G5 (meaning not in the Power-5 of ACC, Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC) team on the road that should probably win, at Virginia in their case.

Another game in the state of Virginia is East Carolina against Virginia Tech. The Pirates were able to beat North Carolina St. but were not so lucky against South Carolina. The Hokies have a chance to rehabilitate somewhat from their previous non-conference game against Tennessee.

BYU will play its fourth Power-5 opponent, this time traveling to West Virginia. The Cougars beat Arizona before losing to Utah and UCLA in close games.

I’ll be very interested in the Wisconsin-Michigan St. game, the big game between two ranked teams.

The Pac-12 has a couple of big games involving Southern California teams. USC is playing Utah right now, and UCLA plays Stanford tomorrow Of course Stanford beat USC last week, so they’re trying to sweep L.A.

I also wanted to mention there is a big game in the ACC Coastal between North Carolina and Pitt in conference openers for both.

I added a note to my rankings blog about why this was delayed until today. It’s partly because the playing week hasn’t started yet.

In my first round of SEC predictions, I only got two wrong in each category, with the spread and without. Florida St. and Alabama beat the spread, and obviously LSU and Mississippi St. lost. So the total is 9-2 against the spread and 11-2 overall (I picked the winners for the Thursday games but did not consider the spread).

ESPN doesn’t publish a spread for FCS opponents, and I skip those anyway. Obviously I pick LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M to win.

Florida only beat UMass by 17, and Kentucky usually makes it interesting against the Gators, so I’ll take the Wildcats and the 16.5 points but Florida to win.

I have a feeling Alabama will be high-energy for their home opener, so I would give the 28.5 points there.

Vandy-Middle Tennessee is a good line. I’ll pick Vandy to win but take the 5 points. They may win by a touchdown. They may win by 1 or even lose. I just think the five points roughly reverses the likelihood.

I think South Carolina was lucky to win, while Mississippi St. was very unlucky and has more potential. Another good line, but for this one I’ll give the 6.5 points and pick the home team.

Neither Arkansas nor TCU did very well in their opening games. I’ll give TCU the edge because it’s a home game for the Horned Frogs, but Arkansas could make it very close or win, so I’ll take the 7.5 points. I was tempted to pick the upset, but then I remembered what happened with Texas Tech. The Hogs may be repeating their pattern from last year.

If Auburn can give Clemson trouble the way they did, I see no reason they can’t put Arkansas St. away easily. So I’ll give the 19 points there.

I know Eastern Michigan is bad, but from the game they gave LSU last year and Missouri’s general ineptness the last 11 months, I’ll take the 25 points.

Tennessee will be motivated to redeem itself from Week 1 against Virginia Tech, but I think the setting will motivate both teams and Tennessee has some things to work out. 11.5 is just too many, so I’ll take the points.

Week 2 Preview

It’s sort of a poor man’s rivalry week, but I know it isn’t the most thrilling collection of games. A lot of these teams are not ranked and don’t deserve to be, but some of the teams might treasure obscure- or latent-rivalry wins when we get to bowl season. They are also games that matter with recruiting.

In addition to the Arkansas and Tennessee games, another interesting close interstate game is Washington St. and Boise St. Washington St. lost to Eastern Washington, a very good FCS team, but I wouldn’t count them out. Boise St. is trying to return to being the top Cinderella of the land on the blue field. Had the Cougars gone to Eastern Washington instead of hosting the Eagles, they would have played on a red field last week.

Will the formerly intimidating Smurf Turf return to its past glory?

There are also some intra-state games to look forward to as well: BYU-Utah took place a couple of playing weeks ago, but it was surprisingly close and may be again. Pitt hasn’t played Penn St. in 16 years. That’s a big inter-conference game as well as a game for bragging rights. I don’t know why some of these games don’t take place more often.

There are some less compelling intrastate games, but they still might have close final scores. Games like New Mexico-New Mexico St. They are both usually terrible, and I have no contrary information, but football games can be like movies. There is a level of badness you get to where the entertainment value starts to improve.

One that may be lopsided is Iowa-Iowa St., but the Cyclones are good for one or two good games a year, and that game is often one of them. I wonder if they’ve given any thought to bringing Gene Chizik back. Speaking of which, North Carolina (where Chizik is an assistant now) travels to Champaign to play the Illini. It wasn’t close last year, but these things can turn on a dime. For instance, you might remember LSU losing in triple-overtime to Kentucky in 2007, but people forget that the year before LSU beat them 49-0.

Another compelling intra-state game is Cal-San Diego St. Sports Illustrated actually picked San Diego St. for the top 25, so that could be a good matchup in hindsight at the end of the year.

Texas Tech and Arizona St. dominated the old Border Conference.

Finally, lest we forget, old Border Conference rivals Texas Tech and Arizona St. will square off in Tempe. They combined for 16 Border Conference championships. All other members of the Border Conference combined for only 11 championships (3 were shared). That conference disbanded during the Kennedy administration, but there you go. Another fun fact: Les Miles’ first win at LSU was against Arizona St., and as of right now his last win was over Texas Tech.

I wanted to get this out of the way first. College football always comes first here. I will post my reaction to the Los Angeles NFL drams that I first covered here.

People are sometimes confused with my rankings after the bowl games. The way I do it is to count the bowls as just another game. So the fact that Iowa, for instance, looked mediocre and Florida looked like a JV team didn’t knock Iowa out of the top 10 or Florida out of the top 25.

I want to congratulate Appalachian St. for making my top 25, although I do think they would lose to more than 25 teams on a neutral field. Why are they so high anyway? I want such a team to be able to move up with a collection of wins. Imagine we had a 16-team tournament and they were included with the teams as the Sun Belt champions (they weren’t, but Arkansas St. lost two more games, so bear with me).

A win over a team like Alabama or Clemson counts as about 2/10 of a point. So one such win would only get 11-2 Appalachian St. to #14, two would get them to #8, three would get them to #6. and four would get them to #3. I think that’s reasonable. Any team they beat would lose points, so some of those would be one or two spots higher, but I don’t think there is anything wrong with a team that only had two losses potentially being #1 (or at least close to #1) if you imagine them beating four of the top teams.

Chad Kelly helped Ole Miss get the most valuable win of the year (0.23 in my system).

IF I use a basketball example, someone who makes the NCAA basketball Final Four has won at least four games in the tournament, usually at least three of them against top 25 teams or comparable. In the poll after the 2012-13 season, Wichita St. jumped 22 spots after making the Final Four and narrowly losing to eventual champions Louisville. Appalachian St. was 27th in my rankings before the bowls this season (not that far from where Wichita St. was before that tournament), so if there were a post-season tournament comparable to basketball, I think my projected final rankings would make sense.

I also don’t think it goes too far the other direction and ignores schedule differences. Alabama only lost one fewer game and is 1.3 points and 20 spots ahead. If you subtract 1.3 points from Appalachian St., that would give them a number of points comparable to Maryland, which finished 3-9 against a good schedule. So I think right in between Alabama and Maryland if the Mountaineers had played in a major conference is a fair assessment.

It just so happens there are a lot fewer teams on the Alabama side of Appalachian St. than on the Maryland side. All the 8-5 and 7-6 teams in major conferences are between Maryland and Appalachian St. There are a lot more of them than there are 12-1 and 11-2 teams.

Moving on to other teams… Alabama was a clearer #1 this year than Ohio St. last year, but the Tide’s loss wasn’t as bad and it had a better schedule. I expect teams in the championship game to be comfortably #1 and #2 with the way the playoff system works. Any win is more points even if you played more games than other teams. That used to anger Pac-12 and Big Ten fans when they didn’t have conference championship games, by the way. I think teams deserve credit every time they risk a loss, so I’m not changing that policy.

I like that Michigan St. stayed #3 when their post-season loss was to Alabama, they beat Ohio St., and (unlike Ohio St.) also beat Iowa, the Big Ten runners-up. Had they not played Iowa, I would have been fine with Ohio St. passing them up.

Speaking of Iowa, Stanford, the team who beat them in the Rose Bowl, moved up to fifth. Both Ohio St. and Stanford moved ahead of Oklahoma, who lost to Clemson in the semifinal. Since the final regularly-scheduled game (a win over Oklahoma St.), Oklahoma is 0-1, Stanford is 2-0, and Ohio St. is 1-0; so I don’t think that’s unfair. I felt the Sooners rightly stayed ahead of Houston, Iowa, Ole Miss, and TCU.

LSU would be in the top 10 if I averaged by week and likely would be had they played McNeese St., but if you consider that two of the three losses were to top 10 teams (Alabama and Ole Miss), 9-1 against the rest is pretty good.

One of the wins was over Western Kentucky, who finished 12-2 and #12. The Hilltoppers’ only other loss was to Indiana, a bowl team from the Big Ten. It wasn’t a good bowl, but Texas wasn’t in any bowl and they beat Oklahoma (for instance), so I don’t think that should be fatal.

Michigan started out six spots below Florida and ended up five spots ahead, so I think that’s a reasonable shift for one game. I don’t see anything controversial about Notre Dame, Northwester, Navy, or Utah.

I admitted that Arkansas’ loss to Toledo was one of the negatives of the conference’s non-conference campaign, but the Rockets finished 10-2 (they had a canceled game like LSU did), so nothing to be too embarrassed about. They beat one of the best G5 teams in Temple in the bowl game.

The other bad SEC loss (by a good SEC team anyway) was Ole Miss’ loss to Memphis, but Memphis might be ranked had they not lost to another SEC team Auburn in the bowl game. I’ll discuss conference results more in the next college football blog probably early next week.

Oklahoma St. stayed in the top 20 despite three losses in a row to end the season, so it’s not some special SEC privilege, although rightly the Gators stayed ahead of the Cowboys. Florida played the best three SEC West teams by overall record.

Mississippi St. and Georgia also benefited by the improvement to their opponents combined with bowl wins of their own.

The Big XII didn’t have the best time of the bowls, but Baylor’s bowl win over North Carolina was strong enough on its own to put them back in the top 25.

I want to get this out there, so I may add pictures later. I’m not going to guess what the committee is going to do. I’ll just start with my top four and why it’s correct. Then I’ll talk about the other major bowls.

Semifinals
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan St.
4. Oklahoma

According to my 100% objective ratings, Alabama has beaten 11, 16, 28, 31, 32, 34, 35, and 39. Their loss was to 13.

It’s extremely difficult to have that many top 40 opponents and only lose to one of them. The only team I can think of that went undefeated before the bowls against such a list was LSU in 2011.

You might say top 40 isn’t that good, but teams like Washington St. (a late field goal from beating Stanford), Pittsburgh, and Wisconsin (the last two barely lost to Iowa) are in that #30-40 group that you can’t afford not to play well when they’re you’re opponent. Even if a top 10 team should have an 80% chance against a team in that range, Alabama played 5 teams in that range and by that logic should have lost to one of them and didn’t.

The Tide going 3-1 against the top 30 is also very respectable. So the only team that beat them is in the top 20 and it was a close game despite 5 Alabama turnovers. Also, since it was so long ago, the chance of a repeat performance by Alabama is almost 0.

Clemson beat 9, 20, 22, and 38. They blew out #38, but they barely survived the other three games. They didn’t happen to lose any, but I believe that had the Tigers played 9 top 40 opponents instead of four their luck would have failed in one of those games.

I do think Clemson will look better than last year’s undefeated ACC champion Florida St. looked in the playoff, but I sincerely believe they are not the best team in the country.

Doesn’t Michigan St. have better wins too? Yes, but I think losing to a team like Nebraska toward the end of the season is much more concerning than the loss to Ole Miss. Ohio St. lost to a mediocre team last year, but (1) it was the first game of the season, and (2) at least that team went on to qualify for a bowl game with six wins. Also, just because a team ended up winning doesn’t mean that being seeded low was unjustified. I thought it was completely justified that the Buckeyes had to overcome being the #4 team last time.

Just for the sake of comparison, I’ll give the other losses and top 40 wins.

Michigan St. beat 5, 6, 17, and 18. They lost to 80. I think that just further bolsters my argument that a team does prove something by playing a series of top 40 teams if even a team nowhere near the top 40 can play well enough to beat a team like the Spartans. So they also suffer a bit for the lack of quantity of top-40 opponents.

Oklahoma beat 12, 14, 30, and 34. They lost to 75. I don’t think I need to further explain why I think they should be fourth in the playoff.

So I would have Alabama against Oklahoma in the Cotton and Clemson against Michigan St. in the Orange. It might happen anyway, but I doubt the committee agrees with my order.

Other “New Years Six” (NY6) Bowls

The first step is to replace any “displaced” champions. This would be the Big Ten champion, the SEC champion, and the Big XII champion. The ACC champion isn’t really displaced because the Orange Bowl is one of the semifinal bowls, so there is no special consideration for a secondary ACC team. The Pac-12 champion goes to its natural spot of the Rose Bowl.

If it were up to me, Ohio St. would play in the Rose Bowl ahead of Iowa. Both lost to Michigan St., but the Buckeyes played in a division that included Michigan, Penn St., and Indiana along with the Spartans and Buckeyes. Apart from Iowa, there were only two teams who finished at .500 or better overall in the Big Ten West.

I think Florida should play Oklahoma St. in the Sugar Bowl. I don’t think it’s right to penalize a team for having to play Alabama at the end of the season. I don’t rely on head to head, but it’s not a bad way to consider comparable teams.

I’ll go over why they’re comparable, and if anything Florida would have a slight edge even without looking at head to head. Both Florida and Ole Miss lost a game out of conference, but Florida St. is a more understandable loss than Memphis. Florida played two of the best three teams in the SEC West looking at their overall records, but of course they lost to LSU. Ole Miss’ only win against the SEC East was over Vanderbilt.

Oklahoma St. and TCU had almost identical schedules (they each had one OK bowl-eligible out of conference opponent apiece {although Minnesota is eligible as a 5-win team} and the nine-game conference schedule), so I’ll once again defer to head to head there. Both teams played three of their best opponents in the last four games, losing two. TCU won in overtime against Baylor, and Oklahoma St. beat TCU by 20.

I know in both cases, the team I’m arguing for has lost two in a row, but I think “body of work” as they call it should beat last impressions as a general rule.

The next step is to locate the Group of Five team that automatically makes an NY6. I don’t think anyone would argue that should be the AAC Champion Houston Cougars, who finish with only one loss. The Cougars won what was clearly the best conference that isn’t a traditional “Power 5” conference. So now we just need three more teams.

I have Iowa, Notre Dame, and Ole Miss. Notre Dame has only lost to Stanford and Clemson.

Northwestern has a good argument, but I don’t think a fourth Big Ten team should be in one of the major bowls. Stanford was a good win, but a distant second in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions is pretty questionable.

Ole Miss has lost three games, to (11) Florida, (24) Memphis, and (39) Arkansas. Arkansas beat the Rebels by 1 in overtime after converting a freak fourth and 25 with an over-the-back lateral. Ole Miss is also the only team to beat Alabama, as mentioned. To give their win list (because I think some would be skeptical of this selection), it is: 1, 16, 28, 35.

I’ll take 4-3 against the top 40 over TCU’s 1-2 or Northwestern’s . That would be an easy choice in basketball, so it should be an easy choice here.

So for the two remaining bowls, the committee is instructed to:
• Create competitive matchups.
• Attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances in specific bowls.
• Consider geography.

Ole Miss went to the Peach Bowl last year (which I’m sure their fans would like to forget) and were also in Atlanta last year to play Boise St. So it would seem they should be sent to the Fiesta Bowl even though that isn’t particularly close. The Rebels make more geographic sense than Notre Dame or Northwestern though. Houston makes even more sense geographically.

The committee also wants to create competitive matchups. I think Ole Miss and Houston would be interesting. The Rebels would have a chance to redeem their earlier loss to an AAC opponent, and I think it would be an entertaining game.

Notre Dame and Iowa should be a good game, and I see no reason that wouldn’t be a competitive (though probably a more defensive) game. They should play in Chicago or Indianapolis or somewhere like that, but their fans might like to get out of the cold. Atlanta can be cool in January but is usually much more moderate than the Midwest. It will be nice and warm inside regardless.

This isn’t part of what the committee looks at, but I think it’s also good for the teams playing each other to be from similar areas, provided that the teams don’t normally play one another.

I’m not even going to try to address all the other bowls, although I did mention the SEC bowl affiliations briefly here.

Before I begin, I wanted to refer people to my Alabama blogs. Most of my hits this week have already been the main rivalry blog.

On Friday, I wrote specifically about LSU’s meetings with Alabama while undefeated.

LSU will hope to reverse its recent fortunes against Alabama. In his weekly press conference, Nick Saban referred to this play as a counter to the idea that LSU-Alabama games are won by playing conservatively.

Also, these are the completely objective numerical results in my full computer ratings.

I don’t have a whole lot to say about last week’s games. We seem to have had a bit of a lull in anticipation of this week. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a Saturday with so few top teams in action.

Obviously, a couple of them had interesting endings though. I picked WSU to win, so that was a tough late disappointment, especially combined with the late innings of the last two World Series games.

I also would have felt vindicated had Temple won, but I make no apologies for having an undefeated team ahead (by just one spot in that case) as long as that team remained undefeated.

Another example may play out this week when LSU plays Alabama. Alabama is favored and while I definitely lean toward taking LSU and the points (though I would remind gamblers of the possibility of Alabama winning by 7 in overtime… again), it’s very difficult to pick the Tide to lose that one. If Alabama wins, the rankings will reflect that at that time. I don’t believe they should now no matter how one thinks the game will unfold.

I’ll give additional LSU and Alabama examples. I thought LSU would win all along in the 2007 championship and felt the same way about Alabama in 2012. I still thought it was right to put the team with fewer losses (Ohio St. And Notre Dame, respectively) higher. Of course a prerequisite to that is similar schedules, so that’s a factor for certain undefeated teams below.

I’m expecting that with a win LSU will be on top, but I’m not sure. It may be that if Clemson wins and some of their prior opponents such as Notre Dame also win, they could move up. I think Alabama would have too far to go. Current computer #1 Michigan St. would have a win over what would become a 3-7 (FBS) Nebraska team, so I don’t know if Sparty can hold on. Even Iowa could possibly move ahead.

If LSU loses, there is a very high chance that I’ll have a number one in this list for the first time. I have not put Michigan St., Clemson, or Iowa first in this list before. I nearly put Iowa in 2009 when they were the computer #1, but they didn’t make it past this week of play before a loss.

With games as significant as Alabama-LSU, Clemson-Florida St., and Notre Dame-Pittsburgh, and TCU-Oklahoma St., I think that affords a suitable enough occasion to just let the numbers do the talking going forward.

Texas A&M, Mississippi St., and Ole Miss are also playing important conference games that could bolster the winner of the game in Tuscaloosa. In other conferences, there are games like Penn St.-Northwestern and Duke-North Carolina than can have effects throughout those respective conferences. Also, TCU would get a big boost to its résumé if Minnesota can upset Ohio St.

So for a number of reasons, I really think this is the big week that will tell us who belongs where in the conversation. I wouldn’t make a big deal out of the playoff rankings tomorrow whatever they are.

First off, I wanted to draw attention to my Rivalry Series editions. I updated the one for Steve Spurrier/South Carolina (I anticipate Saturday’s game was the Visor’s last against the Tigers; I couldn’t stand him in the 1990s, but I will wish him well if that is the case). Also, obviously Spurrier had a huge impact upon the LSU/Florida rivalry, which will be renewed Saturday night in Death Valley between two undefeated teams. That information is enough to spark interest in this year’s game, but I think it’s worth reflecting upon some of the other huge games between the two in the last 10 years especially.

Speaking of Florida, I can almost guarantee that if Florida wins this weekend, they will be #1 both in this list and in the computer listing. However, for now I am keeping Ohio St. #1 and LSU #2. LSU is 8th in the computer list, but if you divide score by playing week the Tigers rise to 4th. So LSU is in position with a win to prove they belong at their current spot or better. If they lose, they’d fall to where the computer puts them, as would Florida.

Florida, Mississippi St., and Alabama (twice) are the only visiting programs to win in this stadium since 2008. The Gators will try to do it again Saturday night.

If Ohio St. comes out first in the computer, they will stay #1. I haven’t been impressed by the Buckeyes, but I said last week we would not have enough information for a new #1 until next week. I’ll also say that if TCU comes out first in the computer (not likely), they will become the new #1. If it’s anyone else, I will consider what the margin is in front of the other teams and upcoming games before I make a decision.

I made a mistake with Michigan St. by putting them near the top the last couple of weeks. Somehow I gave them credit for beating a much better team than Oregon. This discrepancy didn’t show up until Oregon lost again and I realized the Spartans were getting way too much credit for their wins so far.

However, since they are undefeated and they do have a game against a top 10 team on Saturday, I didn’t want to drop them too far. I thought they were still a better top 10 team for now than Temple is. The Owls play winless Central Florida this weekend (winless means you don’t get points for beating them for the time being), so they may fall out of the top 10 anyway.

The only other change I made from the computer was to leave Ole Miss in the top 25 (they had lost several spots for beating NMSU, which is basically the same as a bye week until the Aggies beat someone) and to leave Memphis out of the top 25. If I put the wrong team in, that will be proven on the field when Memphis hosts Ole Miss on Saturday.

Other than the possible change to the #1 team I mentioned, my plan for next week is just to rely on the computers.

Everything in the computers has proceeded pretty much as expected. Utah, TCU, and Iowa got good but not great wins to varying degrees. This allowed them to pass up Texas A&M, who was idle. The Aggies are still in the top four when looking at average week though, and of course they can make up some ground by beating Alabama.

Michigan got the big win over previously unbeaten Northwestern, so they were the biggest mover in the top 25 other than Oklahoma, who lost to then-1-4 Texas. Northwestern fell seven spots for its loss, which I think is reasonable.

Clemson and Florida St. seem to be proceeding nicely to a potential undefeated match-up in November, although the Tigers do have a trip to Miami before that.

I double-checked to make sure Cal lost points for the Utah game but not that many, and the Bears benefitted from a couple of teams slipping downward.

The only other movers worth mentioning were across the Bay, where Stanford was idle and fell two spots, and in South Bend, where Notre Dame improved six spots with the win over previously unbeaten Navy. Also, Georgia of course fell out of the top 25 after blowing a 21-point lead in Knoxville.

Skip to the bottom for the top 25 or click here or use the tab at the top to access my full computer ratings.

Ohio St. was once again underwhelming, but once again there was no clear successor. I sometimes look at other computer rankings to see if it’s just something weird about mine, but it isn’t. Ole Miss and UCLA were in the consensus computer top 5 and of course both lost to teams they were supposed to beat and neither game was close.

Anyway, so I’m keeping Ohio St. #1. The protected top four from last week has been reduced to three with the Ole Miss loss. I’m putting LSU ahead of Michigan St. because they are higher in the formula. Ohio St., LSU, and Michigan St. are all in the top 10 of the formula, so I don’t feel like this is an inappropriate departure.

I also am replacing Temple with TCU in the top 10. They were ninth and 11th, respectively, so I don’t think switching them is a big deal. I also decided to put TCU instead of Iowa, who is new to my top 25.

The only other change was a group of teams who were in the top 15 last week and who I made numbers 22 to 25 this week. Ole Miss, UCLA, Georgia, and Notre Dame were the four teams. I thought Ole Miss in particular should not fall from #2 on my list (which had been slightly higher than the computer ranking) to outside of the top 25.

Memphis and Navy have no wins over the former BCS teams/conferences, but they have chances coming up, so they will move in if they win those. Penn St. and Kentucky have losses that I don’t think their wins quite overcome yet.

I went ahead and left Houston in because they beat Louisville, a major-conference bowl team from last season. Louisville didn’t have a good first week in losing to Auburn, but they played Clemson close and had a good road win over previously undefeated North Carolina St. on Saturday.

So I shuffled around the top 11 a bit, and I switched four computer top 25 teams with four non-top-25 teams. Those four teams are in the order the computer gave, and all the teams in between are also in the exact order from the computer formula.

I may tinker slightly in the next couple of weeks, but in the ratings in two weeks, the current computer ratings will either be validated or the cream will better rise to the top.

Some key games two weeks from now that should make this easier:

Florida @ LSU

UCLA @ Stanford

Arizona St. @ Utah

Missouri @ Georgia

Alabama @ Texas A&M

Boston College @ Clemson

West Virginia @ Baylor

Oklahoma @ Kansas St.

Michigan @ Michigan St.

Iowa @ Northwestern

USC @ Notre Dame

Penn St. @ Ohio St.

Ole Miss @ Memphis

I think just about everything should be sorted properly on its own between now and then. I’m not saying there aren’t any big games this coming week, but nothing like that lineup of decisive games.

I mentioned previously I started doing my preliminary computer calculations. They account for approximately 50% of the top 25 below. After the top four (two of which, LSU and Michigan St., were also in the computer top four), what I did was pick the rest of my top 25 and put them in the order I wanted them without looking at the computers. Then I averaged where I wanted to put them with the ranking the computer gave them.

For instance, I had UCLA sixth, but the computer had them eighth. That averages to seventh. I had TCU fifth, but the computer had them fourth, so that averages to 4.5. 4.5 is a smaller number than 7, so TCU went ahead.

TCU might play better games this season, but right now they get a lot of computer points for Saturday’s win at Texas Tech. (no idea what that white stuff is)

There were some teams in the computer top 25 and not in my top 25, but I didn’t rank any of those teams. I don’t think teams like Indiana and North Carolina St. have proven they should be ranked yet; but if they’re ranked two weeks from now by the computer, they will be ranked in my top 25 list as well.

So I did not allow the computer to take any teams out of the top 25 I had on my own, but the computer does not have a high opinion of either USC or Wisconsin. I gave them a reprieve for this week at least though.

I think they’re both in the top 20 toughest teams to beat, it hasn’t really shown on the results (meaning wins and losses) against their respective sets of opponents so far. I don’t think many people would take Indiana to beat either one on a neutral field.

Again, that won’t matter in a couple of weeks, but I think it should matter at least for now.

I usually don’t take a team from outside the top 25 and put them in the top 10, but I only put Florida 19th. Three decent wins in four weeks, however, puts them among the best teams in the computers, so that’s just where the average takes them.

Utah was closer to where I had in mind originally. I had them 12th. Not only was I considering the win over Oregon, but I was also considering the fact that Michigan just beat a ranked team (BYU) and has not lost since playing the Utes.

I ranked Temple after Week 2 and only wanted to put them back to #25 this week, but Penn St. and Cincinnati still give the Owls a decent amount of points.

I mentioned Wisconsin hasn’t done much to impress the computers, and that was by far Alabama’s best win, so that explains why they’ve fallen so far. In my formula, every loss is a negative, so some teams without losses are higher even though I understand many of them haven’t played a team as good as Ole Miss.

Northwestern is a bit higher in the computers of course, but they beat Stanford, and Stanford looks good otherwise. Subjectively, I would move the Wildcats up more gradually, but the best they could have possibly done against their three FBS opponents is beat all of them and for those opponents to be a combined 9-3. They beat all of them, and those opponents are a combined 8-4. The only extra loss was by Ball St. to Texas A&M, an undefeated team.

Northwestern doesn’t have any points for their win over winless Eastern Illinois, but the other games are good enough to give them a higher computer rating than anyone else right now.

The only other team that doesn’t match up fairly well to last week’s ranking is Oklahoma St., who falls eight spots. The Cowboys’ four opponents have only one win combined over FBS opponents (Texas over Rice). Even though they are undefeated, Oklahoma St. will fall out of the top 25 unless they beat Kansas St. on Saturday.

No one else changed more than five spots, so I think they align pretty well for a transition week.

I reserve the right to make a couple of changes to the computer ratings for next week when I publish this list (the list I publish on the computer rating site is always 100% objective), but after that it will follow the computer ratings almost completely.

After next week, the only team you can expect me to change is the #1 team. In the first four computer weeks last season, there were four different #1 teams. I don’t like to change them that often. The latest playing week where I have ever had a different #1 than the computer was after the last playing week in October in 2009 (I was rightly reluctant to make Iowa #1, and they fell to #6 the following week.)

So basically whoever is the computer #1 after Halloween can expect to be #1 on this list.

I decided to do my first preliminary computer rankings now that most teams have actually played someone in the FBS who in turn played other teams who have played FBS opponents and it’s possible to get a computer rating on everyone.

Before I reveal more, a couple of disclaimers: I don’t start using a full or almost full computerized system until early October, so my official rankings are still the ones that were posted on Sunday; but I thought it would be interesting to see how the teams shaped up at this point. I like to try to get a smooth transition from subjective to objective. Usually I will still move a couple of teams for the first or second top 25 list (although the ratings on my ratings site are always 100% objective).

The transition is not always easy. I got someone mad at me when my attempted transition backfired with Missouri in 2013. I kept thinking the Tigers would lose (and I also thought the added points they got for beating Vanderbilt would go away, but Vandy had one of their best seasons in recent memory instead), so I kept them down around #20. Then the weekend where I fully moved to the computer rankings, they got another big win (this time over previously unbeaten Georgia, who had already defeated four P5 opponents in the first five weeks) and shot up to #2. So the transition process involves some guessing and gambling, but I still think it’s better than going from 100% subjective to 100% objective in one week.

This was really surprising to me since they usually don’t align early on, but the prelimary #1 is Ohio St., the same as my subjective #1. The prelimary 24th and 25th teams are BYU and U. Miami, the last two teams in my subjective top 25 (but in different order). So to that extent I’m encouraged with my attempts at objectivity.

There many discrepancies in the middle of the two rankings though. One example is Florida St., who is 11th in my rankings but is tied with Arizona, Clemson, and Houston for 48th in my computer system. This is because although the Seminoles have beaten three FBS opponents, none of THOSE have beaten an FBS opponent. Boston College did beat a couple of FCS teams, and that would normally result in FSU getting points by extension, but it doesn’t because those FCS teams haven’t beaten ANYONE in FBS or FCS.

In the next month, the Eagles will play Northern Illinois, Duke, and Clemson, so they may turn out to be a strong win for FSU in the near future; they just aren’t now. For its part, FSU only plays Wake Forest in the next two weeks, so they mostly have to rely on teams they’ve already played to win to pick them up or they may fall out of the top 25 when I move to the purely objective system.

Northern Illinois fumbled away a chance at a huge upset in a sloppy game on Saturday, but the Buckeyes still look good on paper.

The top four in total rating are:

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Texas A&M

Notre Dame

However, it looks a little different when you divide the teams by playing weeks:

Ohio St.

LSU

Michigan St.

West Virginia

Anyway, without further ado, here is the full computer top 25 as it would look if I did the fully objective system now:

Team

rating

rating/week

subjective

1

Ohio St.

0.3874

0.1291

1

2

Mich. St.

0.3615

0.1205

3

3

Notre Dame

0.3309

0.1103

12

4

Texas A&M

0.3294

0.1098

7

5

N’western

0.3032

0.1011

18

6

Oklahoma

0.2908

0.0969

16

7

TCU

0.2890

0.0963

6

8

Iowa

0.2797

0.0932

—

9

Alabama

0.2669

0.0890

8

10

LSU

0.2583

0.1291

4

11

Utah

0.2468

0.0823

—

12

Indiana

0.2362

0.0787

—

13

Ole Miss

0.2335

0.0778

2

14

W. Virginia

0.2245

0.1123

—

15

Florida

0.2237

0.0746

—

16

Missouri

0.2121

0.0707

—

17

UCLA

0.2045

0.0682

9

18

Syracuse

0.1980

0.0660

—

19

Temple

0.1898

0.0633

—

20

N.C. St.

0.1879

0.0626

—

21

Texas Tech

0.1738

0.0579

—

22

Ohio U.

0.1561

0.0520

—

23

Toledo

0.1437

0.0718

—

24

BYU

0.1431

0.0477

25

25

U. Miami

0.1333

0.0444

24

Obviously LSU is higher (they’re 10th the other way) because their Week 1 game was cancelled, but the difference between 2 games and 3 games is statistically much larger than the difference between 12 games and 13 games will be. So right now, I think that’s definitely worth considering. Also, just to note, you have to go down five decimal places to separate tOSU and LSU under the average-week calculation. Almost every other pair of consecutive teams is separated in the second or third decimal place.

West Virginia is sort of a statistical fluke at the moment. That’s the short version anyway. They beat Georgia Southern, who beat Western Michigan. I don’t think Ga. Southern or Western Michigan are good teams, but the former looks like a good win for WVU right now. Western Michigan is the only FBS opponent the Eagles (that’s Ga. Southern’s mascot) have played, and the Broncos played Michigan St., one of the best teams, so they seem to have a really good strength of schedule.

I will mostly be discussing the overall score though.

I also mentioned in my last rankings blog that looking at this year’s results alone, not factoring in last season or any personal perceptions, Texas A&M should be in the top five, so I’ve confirmed that as well.

I’ve laid out several reasons I’m skeptical of the Aggies, but they won’t get a ton of points before playing Alabama in about a month, so their computer rating should come closer to aligning with the subjective ranking anyway.

I know I don’t have Notre Dame nearly that high, but as far as my ratings know, the Irish beat Virginia by 70 instead of 7, so that’s one reason I have them a good bit lower. Maybe they’re even better with their third QB in just a handful of games going back to the end of last regular season. Sort of like Ohio St. was in the playoff in January.

Notre Dame-UMass SHOULD be dull, but that Notre Dame-Clemson game in two weeks will be huge in determining who goes where in the first computer ratings.

There is a bit of an issue with certain FCS opponents counting for too many points right now, but I’ll discuss that immediately afterward and then add some further comments.

Something else worth considering is that wins over unbeaten FCS teams (who have actually beaten a Division I opponent anyway) count for a good bit of points right now. The only teams that show up in the top 25 who are influenced by this are West Virginia (so that’s another reason WVU is so high in the weekly average), Iowa, North Carolina St., Ohio U., and U. Miami. This also helps #26 Baylor.

Cal-Berkeley and Missouri also get high points from their FCS opponents that will diminish over time. So if you just want take out those points, the top 25 would conclude thusly:

10

Iowa

11

Utah

12

Indiana

13

Ole Miss

14

Florida

15

UCLA

16

Missouri

17

Syracuse

18

W. Virginia

19

Temple

20

Texas Tech

21

N.C. St.

22

Toledo

23

BYU

24

Ohio U.

25

Penn St.

I swear I didn’t rig the system to make LSU’s upcoming opponent (Syracuse) look good this week. Wake Forest is otherwise undefeated, and Central Michigan has a very strong schedule right now having played Oklahoma St. as well.

As an aside I found amusing, Les Miles made a point of talking up Central Michigan (and the MAC in general) during his Monday press conference because apparently his wife is a graduate of CMU. After Syracuse, who beat the Chippewas in overtime last week, LSU will play MAC opponent Eastern Michigan, so that may have been a secondary motivation of bringing up the MAC’s success.

These things will sort themselves out though. If Wake Forest wins more than a few games, I’ll be surprised, and it’s hard to have a good strength of schedule out of the MAC. This year might be an exception for the MAC though after the way teams like Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Bowling Green have performed against major programs.

Just to go down the list though, Oklahoma and TCU are about right. Waiting for TCU to do something though. Oklahoma may go down a bit if Tennessee loses to Florida, so we’ll see about that. The Sooners also have a bye this coming week, so that will allow some teams to pass them up so that should help make it a more natural transition.

The Horned Frogs play Texas Tech, which looks good statistically right now due to some early competition.

I’m not a believer in Iowa. They’re getting a lot of points for their FCS win. Iowa St. probably will never count as a good win this year (likely a very weak one since the Cyclones went winless in the Big XII last season), and Pittsburgh will probably be mediocre.

Alabama and LSU are about right, with the proviso I mentioned about the latter having only had two playing weeks.

Utah has a good-looking schedule right now, and Michigan helped them out by beating two FBS opponents. The Wolverines are just out of the top 25 at #29.

Indiana is another fluke. The SIU and FIU wins will lose the lustre, I’d expect. Western Kentucky might be all right though.

Then we get to Ole Miss. It’s not exactly a secret that the Rebels didn’t play anyone before Alabama. Again, the fact that they won 70-7 or whatever doesn’t matter.

Unbeaten Florida knocked off unbeaten Kentucky on Saturday. No guarantee that will mean anything in a couple of weeks, but congrats to the Gators. It’s something to have a 29-game winning streak over another SEC program regardless.

Missouri, UCLA, and Temple are other teams who got away with getting close wins, although there is a very small adjustment when you win a close game (≤3) at home.

North Carolina St. is another fluke. I don’t think we’ll look back at the end of the season and remark at the greatness of their non-conference wins over Troy and Old Dominion. Same thing with Ohio U.’s wins over Marshall and Idaho. Old Dominion and Marshall may turn out to be all right, but they may lose to a few more teams apiece instead of staying otherwise undefeated.

I think it’s fairly clear why Toledo, BYU, and Miami are there. Arkansas does have two losses now, but they got that FBS win and the Hogs’ losses are to two undefeated teams (I mentioned Texas Tech earlier). Nebraska also has two losses from apparently good teams (BYU and U. Miami).

Upcoming blogs

Finally, I wanted to announce something. Other than the weekly rankings, this blog hasn’t had too much structure to it. I believe next week I’m going to start a series called “SEC Wednesdays”. This will be a time when I will go into more detail about past and upcoming SEC games rather than having it clog up space in more general blogs. Of course there were a few big games last weekend and I mentioned them already. But after the games this week, I will keep my comments short when it’s an SEC game until the SEC Wednesday blog.

The basic structure of the week will be Sundays (starting in October) the new ratings will come out, with the top 25 rankings and discussion blog coming out Monday generally. Then on Thursday or Friday I usually do some kind of preview of the upcoming week for other teams or perhaps I might do something specific to LSU.

The last couple of weeks I did “conference reports”. I will probably do that one more time next week before that series will go on hiatus. There aren’t enough inter-conference games to sustain it after the first few playing weeks. I try to do a final one for the regular season before the conference championship games and then another after the bowl games.