The study below concludes that short passing on average contributes very little to winning while deep passing (where the ball travels more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage in the air) on average contributes a great deal to winning. The study further concludes that teams should be building themselves to have the capability to go deep.

This study pretty much matches up with my observations of the game, especially in the years since the demise of the WCO.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/09/deep-vs-short-passes.html

Pawnmower

12-03-2010, 03:06 PM

Interesting but currently flawed data -

They do not seperate a check down pass to a RB that goes for 15+ from and actual deep pass that goes 15 yards in the air....(From what I understand)

Until they do that, it seems fairly useless...

kysirsoze

12-03-2010, 03:07 PM

The study below concludes that short passing on average contributes very little to winning while deep passing (where the ball travels more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage in the air) on average contributes a great deal to winning. The study further concludes that teams should be building themselves to have the capability to go deep.

This study pretty much matches up with my observations of the game, especially in the years since the demise of the WCO.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/09/deep-vs-short-passes.html

Interesting but currently flawed data -

They do not seperate a check down pass to a RB that goes for 15+ from and actual deep pass that goes 15 yards in the air....(From what I understand)

Until they do that, it seems fairly useless...

They don't?

Pawnmower

12-03-2010, 03:10 PM

They don't?

Unfortunately not...

Here is a quote from the article:

Unfortunately, that's all we get, so we can't tell a screen from a 14-yard down-field pass attempt.

The reason they do not is because the NFL has not begun to track this data, until this season. So , starting now we should be able to get this data and after X amount of time (? a couple/few seasons?) be able to have significant data.

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:10 PM

Interesting but currently flawed data -

They do not seperate a check down pass to a RB that goes for 15+ from and actual deep pass that goes 15 yards in the air....(From what I understand)

Until they do that, it seems fairly useless...

If in the NFL provided play-by-play data they call the pass "deep", it traveled more than 15 yards in the air. So the check down pass and the deep out would be described differently in the play-by-play data.

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:12 PM

Unfortunately not...

Here is a quote from the article:

The reason they do not is because the NFL has not begun to track this data, until this season. So , starting now we should be able to get this data and after X amount of time (? a couple/few seasons?) be able to have significant data.

In the example you quoted, we can't tell a check down from a 14 yard pass through the air because they would both be classified as short passes. However, if the ball had traveled 15 yards through the air, it would be classified as a deep pass. I'll find a couple of examples from Sunday's game.

Pawnmower

12-03-2010, 03:13 PM

If in the NFL provided play-by-play data they call the pass "deep", it traveled more than 15 yards in the air. So the check down pass and the deep out would be described differently in the play-by-play data.

Ahhh

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:14 PM

Here are two plays from the first quarter. The first one traveled less than 15 yards through the air, but Bowe stretched in to 19 yards with rac.

3rd and 6 at KC 46 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass short right to D.Bowe to SEA 35 for 19 yards (A.Curry, L.Milloy).

In the example you quoted, we can't tell a check down from a 14 yard pass through the air because they would both be classified as short passes. However, if the ball had traveled 15 yards through the air, it would be classified as a deep pass. I'll find a couple of examples from Sunday's game.

I think (I could be wrong) They (the NFL) just started tracking the "in the air" stuff this season..So there might not be enough long term data to be accurate yet...

Just Passin' By

12-03-2010, 03:20 PM

Using a flawed "statistic" (EPA) to bolster a flawed argument (Randomly selected distance defined as "deep" makes for more help towards wins) results in another lousy article from that site.

Nothing surprising there.

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:21 PM

I think (I could be wrong) They (the NFL) just started tracking the "in the air" stuff this season..So there might not be enough long term data to be accurate yet...

2006

Pawnmower

12-03-2010, 03:21 PM

Advanced NFL stats is a cool website though, and it is fascinating...I totally agree.

Pawnmower

12-03-2010, 03:21 PM

2006

Ahh thanks.

Pawnmower

12-03-2010, 03:22 PM

Using a flawed "statistic" (EPA) to bolster a flawed argument (Randomly selected distance defined as "deep" makes for more help towards wins) results in another lousy article from that site.

Nothing surprising there.

Also it doesnt factor in sacks accurately I do not believe (the fact that a deep pass is more likely to be disrupted by a hurry or sack)

I wouldnt be SO hard on them though, I mean trying to develop new stats and ways of looking at the data is pretty damn cool..

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:24 PM

Also it doesnt factor in sacks accurately I do not believe (the fact that a deep pass is more likely to be disrupted by a hurry or sack)

As the article points out, if you assign every sack to a deep pass, deep passing still has a positive value. So any problems with assigning sacks to short vs long passes don't change the fundamental conclusion of the study.

chiefzilla1501

12-03-2010, 03:25 PM

Weis has never really been a vertical guy. This isn't something that concerns me.

I think it's more than fair to ask if this data is largely skewed by how many wins Peyton, Brady, and Brees have racked up in that time span. We know that going deep is great if you have an elite QB. But if you're in the other 85% that don't, what's the best approach?

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:26 PM

Weis has never really been a vertical guy. This isn't something that concerns me.

I think it's more than fair to ask if this data is largely skewed by how many wins Peyton, Brady, and Brees have racked up in that time span. We know that going deep is great if you have an elite QB. But if you're in the other 85% that don't, what's the best approach?

1. Get an elite QB.
2. Get an elite pass rush, to stop the other team from going deep.

Hydrae

12-03-2010, 03:29 PM

It doesn't mention anything about PI calls on deep passes either. That would have to factor in, probably in a positive manner too I would think.

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:32 PM

It doesn't mention anything about PI calls on deep passes either. That would have to factor in, probably in a positive manner too I would think.

Great point. I just asked if PI plays were included.

Extra Point

12-03-2010, 03:35 PM

Interesting but currently flawed data -

They do not seperate a check down pass to a RB that goes for 15+ from and actual deep pass that goes 15 yards in the air....(From what I understand)

Until they do that, it seems fairly useless...

The Chiefs built on the sample size, big time, over the previous four years.

teedubya

12-03-2010, 03:40 PM

Pawnmower trying to argue statistics with cdcox... heh

Saul Good

12-03-2010, 03:43 PM

Its interesting. Reminds me of studies done in basketball that say teams should shoot nothing but 3s. Downfield passing is likely subject to the law of diminishing returns. The more you do it, the less effective it gets.

I would be curious to see how this looks with respect to college. I would guess that the deep ball is even more effective at that level.

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:53 PM

Its interesting. Reminds me of studies done in basketball that say teams should shoot nothing but 3s. Downfield passing is likely subject to the law of diminishing returns. The more you do it, the less effective it gets.

I would be curious to see how this looks with respect to college. I would guess that the deep ball is even more effective at that level.

Another good point. Brian (the guy who runs the site) has considered run-pass balance in his analysis by using game theory. He and every other person who has looked at the question says that teams would benefit by passing more. Does that mean 100% of the time? No. At some point your are right, if a team could count on you passing long every play, it would become easy to defend. But current NFL teams would benefit from passing more, especially by throwing deep (if they can do so successfully at a decent rate).

cdcox

12-03-2010, 03:55 PM

It doesn't mention anything about PI calls on deep passes either. That would have to factor in, probably in a positive manner too I would think.

PI penalties are included in the analysis. Brian is a bright guy.

chiefzilla1501

12-03-2010, 03:58 PM

1. Get an elite QB.
2. Get an elite pass rush, to stop the other team from going deep.

I don't like the implication that one category is skewed heavily by a few QBs who are considered elite, and the other is skewed heavily by a big chunk of QBs who are not good. A guy like Jamarcus Russell was so inaccurate with the long pass that the majority of his completions will be short. Yet I'm sure he's lumped into the category of a short passer because he was such a terrible QB. I would imagine Derek Anderson's in a similar boat.

I'd be curious to see this analysis when you take away the outliers. Because right now, I'm not convinced that a vertical team like New England or Green Bay is any more or less dangerous than a ball control team like Baltimore or the Jets. And I think there are more than a few situations where the team as a whole is better off controlling the clock than being a powerhouse passing offense. If KC can build up the defense, that's one. Cincy, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and New York are at their best too under those circumstances.

I don't think it's that cut and dry that we can assume that a deep passing game is in every team's best interests. In certain situations, yes.

Mile High Mania

12-03-2010, 04:07 PM

Synopsis = dink and dunk doesn't work

Consistently move the chains and attack = wins

Mile High Mania

12-03-2010, 04:09 PM

1. Get an elite QB.
2. Get an elite pass rush, to stop the other team from going deep.

I don't know that you need an elite as defined by the Peyton/Brady/Brees comparisons. You can achieve this with a Flacco/Sanchez type (yes, even possibly an Orton and Cassel) that spreads the ball and mixes it up with short/deep passing effectively.

chiefzilla1501

12-03-2010, 04:22 PM

I don't know that you need an elite as defined by the Peyton/Brady/Brees comparisons. You can achieve this with a Flacco/Sanchez type (yes, even possibly an Orton and Cassel) that spreads the ball and mixes it up with short/deep passing effectively.

Precisely. A lot of this is skewed by how wildly successful Peyton, Brady, Warner, and Brees are, but the chances of getting that kind of a QB are really, really low.

I'm more interested in whether Flacco/Sanchez are any more or less effective than a Philip Rivers or an Aaron Rodgers. I don't think that is that clear.

FAX

12-03-2010, 04:31 PM

Fascinating.

You know, this indirectly supports the whole "he who scores first, wins most" theory we discussed a couple of years ago. Although, I still like those long, time-consuming, defense-brutalizing, scoring drives. Moving the chains (whether via the run, long passes, or short, little, dinky dunks) remains the most effective way for an offense to demoralize and physically subjugate an enemy D.

Matriculating are good.

FAX

cdcox

12-04-2010, 09:54 PM

I wanted to see how this worked in practice, so I calculated the expected points added for each of the KC offensive plays in the Seattle game. I then put them in one of five categories: a run by Charles, a run by Jones, a short pass, a long pass, or other.

Runs by Charles: 23 (22 carries plus on penalty); total points 10.49 or 0.46 points per carry.
Runs by Jones: 20 (all carries); total points -3.07 or -0.15 points per carry.
Sort passes by Cassel: 25; total points 7.22 points or 0.29 points per short pass.
Long passes by Cassel: 7; total points 8.21 points or 1.17 points per long pass.

If you take out Charles fumble (worth -3.85 points) from the short passing plays, short passes look a lot better:
Sort passes by Cassel: 24; total points 11.07 points or 0.46 points per short pass.

Conclusions:
Charles needs more touches.
Our short passing game against Seattle was more effective than the league average. Still, 7 long passes had a pretty huge effect, especially considering only 4 of them were completed.

If you give me a few minutes to format them, I'll post the EPA of each offensive play for the Chiefs. I think it is an interesting way to look at the game.

Rain Man

12-04-2010, 10:00 PM

I could probably read it, but how are EPA's scored? Do they take a drive and allocate the points equally for each play? Or weighted by yards for each play? Or something else?

cdcox

12-04-2010, 10:11 PM

Formatting isn't the best, but you can get the idea.

1st and 10 at KC 28 M.Cassel pass short right to D.Bowe to KC 42 for 14 yards (M.Trufant, D.Hawthorne). 0.79
1st and 10 at KC 42 M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to V.Tucker. -0.55
2nd and 10 at KC 42 T.Jones left tackle to KC 46 for 4 yards (D.Hawthorne). -0.15
Timeout #1 by SEA at 13:33. 0
3rd and 6 at KC 46 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass short right to D.Bowe to SEA 35 for 19 yards (A.Curry, L.Milloy). 2.09
1st and 10 at SEA 35 T.Jones right tackle to SEA 31 for 4 yards (K.Balmer). 0.12
2nd and 6 at SEA 31 M.Cassel pass deep middle to V.Tucker to SEA 7 for 24 yards (E.Thomas). 2
1st and 7 at SEA 7 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass short middle to D.Bowe for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1.92

1st and 10 at KC 38 Ball spotted on KC 38 after change of possession. J.Charles right end to SEA 35 for 27 yards (E.Thomas). 1.65
1st and 10 at SEA 35 M.Cassel pass short middle to T.Jones to SEA 27 for 8 yards (L.Milloy). 0.72
2nd and 2 at SEA 27 T.Jones up the middle to SEA 24 for 3 yards (B.Mebane, D.Hawthorne). 0.11
1st and 10 at SEA 24 J.Charles right tackle to SEA 16 for 8 yards (L.Milloy). PENALTY on KC-B.Richardson, Clipping, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 16. -0.93
1st and 17 at SEA 31 M.Cassel pass short right to M.Cox to SEA 21 for 10 yards (M.Trufant). 0.86
2nd and 7 at SEA 21 T.Jones right tackle to SEA 20 for 1 yard (L.Tatupu, J.Siavii). -0.53
3rd and 6 at SEA 20 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass short right to T.Jones to SEA 25 for -5 yards (D.Hawthorne). -1.74
4th and 11 at SEA 25 R.Succop 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (C.Terrill), Center-T.Gafford, Holder-D.Colquitt, ball out of bounds at SEA 47. Penalty on KC-R.Succop, Illegal Touch Kick, declined. Play Challenged by KC and REVERSED. R.Succop 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (C.Terrill), Center-T.Gafford, Holder-D.Colquitt, recovered by KC-D.Colquitt at SEA 38. D.Colquitt to SEA 38 for no gain (K.Chancellor). Challenge was whether FG att. passed line of scrim -2.76

1st and 10 at KC 24 T.Jones left guard to KC 28 for 4 yards (L.Milloy). 0.01
2nd and 6 at KC 28 J.Charles left end pushed ob at KC 40 for 12 yards (E.Thomas). 0.92
1st and 10 at KC 40 T.Jones right end to KC 42 for 2 yards (K.Balmer, L.Tatupu). -0.28
2nd and 8 at KC 42 J.Charles right end to KC 49 for 7 yards (W.Thurmond, D.Hawthorne). 0.36
3rd and 1 at KC 49 J.Charles right end pushed ob at KC 49 for no gain (D.Hawthorne). PENALTY on KC-L.Pope, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 49 - No Play. -1.31
3rd and 11 at KC 39 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass incomplete short left. -0.74
4th and 11 at KC 39 D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by K.Cox, Center-T.Gafford, RECOVERED by SEA-E.Thomas at KC 10. E.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. -6.47

1st and 10 at KC 26 J.Charles right end pushed ob at KC 30 for 4 yards (A.Curry). -0.01
2nd and 6 at KC 30 J.Charles left tackle to KC 34 for 4 yards (J.Siavii, L.Tatupu). -0.07
3rd and 2 at KC 34 M.Cassel pass short right to D.Bowe ran ob at KC 39 for 5 yards. 0.8
1st and 10 at KC 39 M.Cassel pass short middle to J.Charles to KC 47 for 8 yards (A.Curry). 0.54
2nd and 2 at KC 47 T.Jones left tackle to KC 48 for 1 yard (C.Clemons; L.Tatupu). -1.07
3rd and 5 at KC 44 M.Cassel pass deep right to D.Bowe to SEA 34 for 22 yards (W.Thurmond; E.Thomas). 2.19
1st and 10 at SEA 34 J.Charles right end to SEA 30 for 4 yards (L.Milloy, J.Siavii). -0.02
2nd and 6 at SEA 30 T.Jones left tackle to SEA 29 for 1 yard (J.Siavii). -0.44
3rd and 5 at SEA 29 J.Charles left tackle to SEA 21 for 8 yards (L.Milloy). 1.44
1st and 10 at SEA 21 T.Jones right end pushed ob at SEA 21 for no gain (D.Hawthorne). -0.59
2nd and 10 at SEA 21 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass incomplete deep left to D.Bowe. -0.65
3rd and 10 at SEA 21 (Shotgun) M.Cassel pass short right to D.Bowe pushed ob at SEA 10 for 11 yards (R.Lewis) [A.Curry]. 1.97
1st and 10 at SEA 10 J.Charles right end to SEA 7 for 3 yards (W.Thurmond). -0.08
2nd and 7 at SEA 7 J.Charles right tackle to SEA 1 for 6 yards (D.Hawthorne, L.Tatupu). 0.65
3rd and 1 at SEA 1 M.Vrabel and S.Smith reported in as eligible. S.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 1.69

1st and 10 at KC 20 M.Cassel pass short middle to T.Jones to KC 31 for 11 yards (A.Curry). 0.61
1st and 10 at KC 31 J.Asamoah reported in as eligible. M.Cassel scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 46 for 23 yards. 1.34
1st and 10 at SEA 46 T.Jones left end pushed ob at SEA 42 for 4 yards (D.Hawthorne). 0.03
2nd and 6 at SEA 42 J.Asamoah reported in as eligible. M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to D.Bowe. -0.74
3rd and 6 at SEA 42 M.Cassel pass short middle to D.Bowe to SEA 36 for 6 yards (E.Thomas). The Replay Assistant challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. 1.32
1st and 10 at SEA 36 M.Cassel pass deep right to D.Bowe for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 4.1

I could probably read it, but how are EPA's scored? Do they take a drive and allocate the points equally for each play? Or weighted by yards for each play? Or something else?

He has taken historical data for the last x years and determined who scores the next points and how many points for each down, distance and field position. EPA for a play is calculated as the difference in the score that results from that play.

For example for the first play of the game, KC had the ball 1st and 10 on their own 28. Being in that situation is worth 0.78 points.

On their second play, KC had the ball 1st and 10 on their own 42. Being in that situation is worth 1.57 points.

Therefore, Cassel's pass to Bowe on the first play of the game was worth the difference, or 0.79 points.

RippedmyFlesh

12-04-2010, 10:37 PM

The study below concludes that short passing on average contributes very little to winning while deep passing (where the ball travels more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage in the air) on average contributes a great deal to winning. The study further concludes that teams should be building themselves to have the capability to go deep.

This study pretty much matches up with my observations of the game, especially in the years since the demise of the WCO.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/09/deep-vs-short-passes.html
That sums it up best.Losing teams complete alot of short passes against prevent defenses.

Rain Man

12-04-2010, 10:38 PM

He has taken historical data for the last x years and determined who scores the next points and how many points for each down, distance and field position. EPA for a play is calculated as the difference in the score that results from that play.

For example for the first play of the game, KC had the ball 1st and 10 on their own 28. Being in that situation is worth 0.78 points.

On their second play, KC had the ball 1st and 10 on their own 42. Being in that situation is worth 1.57 points.

Therefore, Cassel's pass to Bowe on the first play of the game was worth the difference, or 0.79 points.