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Don’t expect an equivalent forward or a Top 4 dman in trade for Jordan Eberle

When it comes to what is actually going to happen with the Edmonton Oilers, the best strategy is to first pay close attention to all that GM Peter Chiarelli has to say, as he often sets out his exact overall strategy.

What will Edmonton Oilers get for Jordan Eberle? Repeated message is a "lesser, cheaper" forwardBack to video

The next best thing to is to listen closely to team and league insiders such as TSN’s Ryan Rishaug, The Journal’s Jim Matheson and, of course, Bob Stauffer of the Oilers organization, who hosts Oilers Now.

When you take all those steps in regards to the trading of Jordan Eberle, the inescapable conclusion is that Eberle is a) going to be traded in the next few weeks, b) is NOT going to fetch a Top 6 forward or Top 4 dman, and c) that the return is going be disappointing to most fans, most likely a cheaper, lesser winger without Eberle’s record of near elite scoring.

Let’s work through all that’s been said and rumoured during the Chiarelli and McLellan era about moving out Eberle and see where we end up:

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Early in the Chiarelli/Todd McLellan regime, it was rumoured by key insiders that Edmonton would eventually move “soft skill” players such as Eberle. For example, at that time team insider Mark Spector ofSportsnet said: “In ‘soft skill,’ I say when they’re not scoring and producing lots of points and chances, there’s nothing left for them to do, right? They don’t accomplish anything else. Eberle is never going to have a night where you go, ‘Well, he didn’t produce much but, boy, he should ground the other team down.’ He’s just not that player.” That was strike one against Eberle as an Oiler, a weak first impression.

In the spring of 2016, Eberle’s name came up repeatedly in trade rumours, the idea being that the Oilers would have to move one of Eberle, RNH or Taylor Hall to get a Top 4 d-man. This was said repeatedly by Stauffer and other insiders, with the key point being that to get the right d-man, Edmonton might have to be Hall, the most valuable chip.

At the same time Eberle was coming off an outstanding last season spell on Connor McDavid’s wing. It was said last summer that McDavid wanted to play with Eberle, so Eberle looked like he had another chance with McLellan and Chiarelli, so long as he could light it up on McDavid’s wing.

Eberle got his second chance early this season with McDavid and failed to make the most of it. Strike Two.

In February, NHL insider Elliott Friedman summed up the trade value of Eberle and Benoit Pouliot as follows: “I don’t think there’s a lot of interest in the two wingers you just mentioned. The Oilers have been trying to do something with Pouliot for some time and they can’t make it work. I think if there was more interest in Eberle, Hall would never have been traded. They’re just isn’t as much interest in those guys right now, not at what the Oilers would like to do… It’s very firm now, especially guys with term who aren’t producing and unless you’re willing to take back somebody else’s mistake or do something in return that helps out the team you’re trading with.”

Eberle’s play did pick up in the final two months of the season, when he, Milan Lucic and RNH had a strong run of play as the 666 Line. If the three had continued to excel in the playoffs, Eberle might still be an Oiler, but he failed to do so. Three strikes and you’re out.

McLellan’s own frustration with Eberle evidently boiled over in the playoffs when he took the unusual step of criticizing the player directly during the Anaheim series. Fan anger at Eberle also boiled over during that series, but the daily beatings did not help Eberle’s play. It looked like Eberle’s confidence was shot and I have doubted from that point on if there was any coming back for Eberle as an Oiler.

After the season, broadcaster Drew Remenda talked with Stauffer and summed up the general insider mood about the player and the prospect of trading him: “The one I’d sell would be Jordan Eberle for a couple reasons…. Objectively you look at Jordan Eberle and he just doesn’t do enough for me. He stays on the outside too much.” And then Remenda dropped the P-bomb, Eberle’s alleged failure to practice hard enough: “He doesn’t — and Bob you know my thing about practice — if you want to get better you’ve got to work at your game. You’ve got invest in your career. And I don’t see that from Jordan. And maybe it’s because he does it away from the rink during the summer, I don’t know… I’ll be honest with you in what I think about hockey, and what I think is happening is on the ice. To me I don’t think Jordan Eberle gave you enough or showed you enough to deserve to get another chance.”

Following Remenda’s critique, both McLellan and Chiarelli defended the player. Chiarelli told TSN’s Pierre LeBrun that the Oilers will have to move a player for cap reasons, but did not have to do so right away. “The way we are going to have to spend our money in the future will probably mean us moving a player. When that future is, I don’t know. You know, basically, we’ve got a year to play with, in my mind.” Chiarelli also spoke well of Eberle, saying the player had the third most positive offensive touches on the team his past season.

Now we get the the main matter, the potential return for Eberle. As for what Chiarelli has said, in late May he made it clear he wasn’t looking to pick up a Top 4 dman, and he said this knowing that Andrej Sekera needed surgery and that he moving a $6 million man for cap reasons was a real possibility. “I think for now I’m pretty happy with the D,” the GM said. “With regards to the power play, we made a significant improvement to the power play without a pure power play D.” The Oilers found a way to succeed without a pure puck mover and shooter at the point, he said. “We don’t have that guy, but we’ve got solid thinkers, and when you look to the power play and the results you see that that can be a successful formula… As far as do we have a championship D core? I’m not sure you. There’s still an element of growth in our D.”

This past week, Dreger has talked about a possible return of Travis Hamonic for Eberle, but given Chiarelli’s earlier comments about looking for internal growth from his d-men, and given the fact that Edmonton would have to leave Zack Kassian and Mark Letestu exposed in the expansion draft if he traded for a d-man, and given that Chiarelli has already said he expects to protect seven forwards and three defenceman for the Vegas expansion, how likely is such a move? Of note is also what Chiarelli has said about Kris Russell: “I want to have Kris back. I thought he was really good for our team.”

It seems that if the Oilers are going to sign up a Top 4 dman that Chiarelli has one in mind, and that player is Kris Russell.

If a Top 4 dman isn’t the expected return for Eberle, what is? On June 7, Oilers insiders Stauffer and Spector gave their take. They didn’t see the Oilers being able to get a player like Hamonic for Eberle one for one, then Stauffer said: “I would suggest the most realistic scenario would be that Eberle potentially, if he does gets moved, theoretically, gets moved for a forward like him that is protected through the expansion draft that’s maybe had some challenging years or two and that might be a little bit lower price point on a team that needs more of a sure thing offensively. So figure out what that type of player is and away you go.”

The Journal’s Matheson has talked about Cody Eakin being a possible return. On June 15, he tweeted: “Still think Eberle to Dallas for Cody Eakin makes most sense if Oilers want to deal Eberle.”

This week on the radio,TSN’s Rishaug has said something similar to what Stauffer said last week. Today onTSN1260, Rishaug said the mechanics are in place for Eberle to be traded and said he’d be surprised if it wasn’t done before the end of the NHL draft. “I think what we’ll end up seeing, unless one of the defencemen they are chasing springs loose, I think what we’ll end up seeing is a trade for a forward, almost like trade down of a guy that maybe hasn’t hit the same type of offensive totals that Eberle has shown the potential to hit — and hit — but somebody who doesn’t make as much money, and they’ll be able to save some money on the cap, spend that money elsewhere, and a player who has some potential and who you never know, if you play him with Draisaitl, you play him with McDavid, then maybe the new totals and new potential is there for that player. I just think the writing is on the wall here and we’ll see this get done.”

One more piece of confirmation that the Oilers will get a lesser, cheaper forward and not a Top 4 d-man for Eberle came from Elliotte Friedman on Oilers Now today, who said he didn’t see Edmonton getting a player like Hamonic for Eberle. “From what I hear on Hamonic, the price is really high. I wonder if it’s higher than Eberle to be perfectly honest… Hamonic makes less than Eberle. He’s a more impactful player at this point in his career. I’m not sure that that (Eberle in return) is going to do it. I think if it’s Eberle going to the Islanders, either it’s going to be more than him or there’s going to be something else involved. So I’m not convinced that’s the deal that’s going to get made.”

Do we have to get hit over the had here? All the insiders, in their own way, are saying the same thing, that Eberle will be traded for a lesser, cheaper forward, and that also lines up with what Chiarelli has telegraphed about not seeking a Top 4 d-man. If you’re hoping for more — and I’ve surely been in that boat — expect to be disappointed.

One final note, the prospective trade of Eberle brings me back to the EIG era of the early 2000s when Edmonton moved out better forwards for lesser forwards due to financial reasons. Back then the reason was that Oilers could not afford to pay the wages of top forwards, while now the financial reason is related to the cap. Back then the deal was trading a Bill Guerin for Anson Carter, or Anson Carter for Radek Dvorak, or Doug Weight for Marty Reasoner and Jochen Hecht. Now it will be Eberle for a player like Eakin or Ryan Strome.

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