You can’t blame the drought on 9/11 or the recession: Business remains reasonably strong.

And it’s hardly Amateur Hour in the kitchen. Chefs behind recent debuts include marquee names Patricia Yeo, Erik Blauberg, Mario Batali and Terrance Brennan – each of whom previously earned three stars in one or both newspapers, but fell short this time around.

So why the cold streak in the kitchen?

Even the greatest sluggers can strike a dry patch, like the Yankees in the 2001 World Series. But more likely it’s because chefs are swinging their bats too far off their beaten paths.

Asian-fusion master Patricia Yeo made her mark at popular AZ. But her stab at eclectic Mediterranean cooking at Pazo has not entirely won over the dining millions. Maybe it’s because Lapsang souchong-smoked chicken at AZ doesn’t translate automatically into Moroccan spice-rubbed, brick-cooked chicken at Pazo.

Or take Blauberg. He’s earned praise at ’21’ for his straightforward, modern-American menu. But the leap Upstairs, from an à la carte menu emphasizing primary ingredients to a four-course, prix-fixe one, might be too much to bite off at once – especially since the menu is full of indulgences like Dover sole chopped into pieces and drowned in a murky brew of root vegetables.

With Batali and Brennan, it’s not a case of aiming too high, but aiming too low. Like aristocrats itching to get their hands dirty, they set out to master styles more humble than those they’re known for – but which turn out to be harder than they look.

Batali’s genius is to invent Italian-based dishes so irresistible, you neither know nor care where the departure from authenticity begins – like the raw-fish “crudo” he and David Pasternack dreamed up at Esca.

But pizza is another story. Batali’s overcomposed, griddle-cooked renditions at Otto recall another flop born of overconfidence: barbecue at Danny Meyer’s Blue Smoke.

Blue Smoke’s ribs have improved since it opened last spring. But when the chef is Batali or the owner is Meyer, we don’t expect the signature dish to be a “work in progress.”