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If the long-distance diagnosis of a Bay Area orthopedic surgeon is accurate, 49ers defensive tackle Justin Smith won’t play his next game until the 2013 season.

Dr. David Chang, the chief of orthopedic surgery at Alta Bates Summit Medical Center in Oakland, estimates it would take Smith a minimum of 12 weeks to return to “game readiness,” even if at least 50 percent of his torn triceps is intact.

Smith had a bone spur detach when he sustained a partial tear of his left triceps on Dec. 16 in a win at New England. The bone spur remains in his left elbow.

Smith hasn’t practiced since the injury, but the 49ers are hopeful he could return at some point in the postseason. They could play a wild-card game as early as Jan. 5, 20 days after Smith was injured. The Super Bowl in New Orleans is on Feb. 3, seven weeks after Smith’s injury.

Chang, who is out of the country, discussed Smith’s injury in a series of e-mails.

He said for a “power, elite athlete” such as Smith, surgery is preferred. The healing process, he wrote, “takes 6 to 8 weeks followed by rehabilitation for another 6 to 8 weeks. We’re talking about 4 months to return to game readiness.”

Clearly, however, the 49ers are hoping Smith can delay surgery until the offseason. According to Chang, that wouldn’t accelerate Smith’s timetable for getting back on the field, even if at least 50 percent of his triceps is intact.

“Even with a 50% tear, minimum time of healing is 6 weeks and rehab would have to ensue,” Chang wrote. “So time back is not any shorter without surgery.”

It is likely Smith will require surgery at some point.

“Depending on the extent of the tear, a partial tear could heal on its own,” Chang wrote. “However, the healing is less predictable than with surgery. With an elite athlete, the preference is usually to address this type of injury with surgical repair.”

In 2009, Chang performed surgery on Leon Washington when the Seattle running back, then with the Jets, sustained a compound leg fracture in a game at Oakland. Chang is on the medical staff for the Tour of California professional cycling race and is a consulting physician for the Los Angeles Galaxy of Major League Soccer.