Only time will tell on Cubs trade

The argument here in the office has been heavy regarding on the deal that will bring Matt Garza to the Cubs for a host of prospects is a good one or not. My belief is that it is not.

I agree that you have to give something to get something, but the price of Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos and Sam Fuld is too steep at this time. I’ll bold and italicize because it’s the big qualifier.

Garza is the best pitcher on the market. However, making this trade for that kind of quality prospects (Archer, Lee and Guyer were Nos. 1, 4 and 10 in the Baseball America rankings, Chirinos is somewhere between 11 and 20 and Fuld is a fifth outfielder) says that the Cubs want to contend in the NL Central this season and think they can do it. That’s all well and good, but the Pirates want to contend this year too. They just can’t. I’m not saying that the Cubs are at Pirate-levels. They are not.

What this trade does is extend a window that has been steadily closing since the 2008 division title. At the same time it keeps the window that is being built for the future from being open really wide. There is still plenty of young talent in the system — see Castro, Cashner and Colvin on the big club with Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Jost Vitters et al still in the minors. But to give up three of your top 10 represents a major investment in today at the expense of the future.

What the trade shows is that the Cubs are not going to have the patience to totally rebuild the system from within. Which is a shame because it really wouldn’t take that long. The Cubs did finish very well last season. The addition of Carlos Pena certainly helps the lineup and bringing Kerry Wood back shores up the bullpen.

Could they have been as bad as the Pirates? For gosh sakes, no.

Could they have been good enough to guarantee being in the NL Central race? No.

Could the Cubs have contended if things would have broken right with the other clubs? Possibly.

The beauty of standing pat and not making the Garza trade is that it preserves the flexibility the Cubs could have had going further. If things go sideways and come July the Cubs aren’t Pirates bad, but they are off the pace they can deal a Ramirez or a Soriano for even more prospects.

If come July the Cubs are in the race, then they can think about moving the young guys then to take shot.

The Cubs probably would have likely had to move Guyer at some point. He’s very similar to Jackson with just a little less pop in his bat. So I have no trouble with him being involved in a deal.

Same thing for Fuld — at the current time he’s on the bubble between Iowa and the Cubs and there’s a handful of guys like him in the system. If Jackson is ready at some point this season that would knock him down another peg.

The Cubs have Geovany Soto and Wellington Castillo behind the plate so losing Chirinos is negligable as far as the Major League roster is concerned. But Chirinos has value as an MLB backup and utility guy so he could be moved for the right player.

I wouldn’t have had a problem moving the three of them for a pitcher like Joe Blanton, who is on the market from Philly. Is he as good as Garza. No, but his numbers aren’t that far off. Blanton has allowed fewer walks per nine innings and they have a similar WHIP. He also has something that no other Cub on the team has, a World Series ring. In order to get to that level it helps to have guys in the clubhouse that have won before. And, more importantly, in terms of cost to the player-development system he’s much cheaper.

In the Garza deal the Cubs not only will trade those three but also lose Archer and Lee. Those are the two losses that could really hurt down the road.

Some feel that Archer could have reached Wrigley this season as a reliever and then move to the rotation in much the same way that Cashner is in the process of doing. If that were to fail, the right-hander could always be a closer. There are concerns about his control, but Archer cut his walks down in each of his three seasons and BA ranked his fastball and slider as the best in the farm system.

Lee was hands down the best defensive shortstop I’ve seen come through Peoria, dating back to when the Chiefs were a Cardinals affiliate. His bat dropped off in 2010 from what he hit in Boise the year before. Baseball America projected Lee as the Cubs starting shortstop in 2014 with Castro at second. That’s a good middle infield.

One other thing to point out: Baseball-Reference.com has a feature where you can compare a player to similar players at that age. Through age 26, the 10 pitchers most comparable to Garza were:

Kip Wells

Steve Trachsel

Nino Espinosa

Brad Penny

Jim Lonborg

Jason Marquis

Darryl Kile

Don Robinson

Odalis Perez

Bob Hendley

I’m not sure that I would feel comfortable trading the five players the Cubs did for any of those guys at any point. Especially not when the thought was that if they weren’t totally rebuilding at least there was a little bit of re-tooling.

Give general manager Jim Hendry props, it’s a bold move. But is it the right one?

We’ll find out for sure in anywhere from 10 months to 10 years down the road . That’s the great thing about baseball until all the careers pan out the arguments will go on.