· Jonathan Franzen's novel The Corrections (Fourth Estate) has been one of the deserved publishing successes of the year. It has also familiarised the industry with a euphemism for a rather painful phenomenon that may be on the way: an economic "correction" to recent excesses. In the summer, I listed a dozen celebrity memoirs that publishers had acquired for huge sums and were backing with lavish promotions; at least half of them have sold poorly, and it is probable that most of them will fail to repay the investments made in them. Already signed up for next year: Cilla Black, Jimmy Greaves and Chris Evans. But surely, after the bruising experiences of this autumn, agents representing celebrities below the ranks of B list will no longer find publishers so willing to hand over six-figure sums.

· Most surprising flop of 2002: Kylie: La La La (Hodder), which spent only a week on the bestseller list. Booksellers, who had been eager to see a picture of Kylie Minogue's bottom on the cover of the book, are blaming the sluggish sales on the more restrained jacket image that the publisher, and presumably the singer, have chosen. Surprise hit: What Not To Wear (Weidenfeld), which probably commanded the lowest advance of any lead title published this autumn. As predicted last week, Susannah Constantine and Trinny Woodall have signed a new contract with Weidenfeld for considerably more (more than £1m more, according to some reports) than they got last time. Surprise hit no 2: Schott's Original Miscellany (Bloomsbury), the book industry's equivalent of Beyblades and the Evoke radio. There are more than 220,000 copies of the "essential trivia" guide in print, but Bloomsbury and booksellers cannot keep up with the demand. A further 50,000 copies are due in the shops just in time for Christmas. Hurry.

· The bursting of the celebrity books bubble is only a symptom of a more fundamental correction that must be due to affect the book market soon. As a result of the feverish demand for potential bestsellers, pressure on discounts and on terms has never been so intense as it was in 2002. Supermarkets offered increasingly aggressive price cuts. WH Smith felt that it had to match the supermarkets' prices, and the bookselling chains felt that they had to match Smiths. All these retailers were losing margins, so they pushed for better terms from publishers. In January, W H Smith proposed to bypass the process by which retailers get authorisation to send back books, and to assign itself the credit instead (it backtracked, after protests). In the summer, Waterstone's introduced its "range repair" policy, swapping unsold titles for new ones. Also in the summer, Amazon.co.uk brought in a new negotiating team, who had stand-offs with several leading publishers. The strategy underlying these battles is particularly questionable in the run-up to Christmas, when desirable books are available at lower prices than consumers would be prepared to pay for them. The relationship between consumer demand and the suppliers' ability to satisfy it at a reasonable profit has got out of balance. Author receive lower royalties once discounts to retailers rise above certain levels; some are now said to receive 90% of their royalties at reduced rates. The Society of Authors and the Association of Authors' Agents are campaigning to get publishers to resist demands for higher discounts, or to offer authors more generous terms.

· Three independent publishers moved into corporate ownership in 2002. It would be simplistic to say that they were victims of market forces; nevertheless, the purchases did underline the difficulties for independent companies when corporate publishers and retailing chains are so powerful. John Murray, founded 250 years ago and run since then by seven generations of Murrays, was bought by Hodder Headline, itself part of WH Smith. Harvill, publisher of Alexander Solzhenitsyn and Joy Adamson, joined Random House (a division of Bertelsmann). Everyman's Library, publisher of elegant hardback classics, also went to Random House, but this time to its Knopf division in the US.

· Waterstone's has been through a transformation. In May, with its parent the HMV Group, it became a public company. The flotation got a scornful press and has not produced buoyant shares, but was an extraordinary achievement at a time when retailing was unfashionable and the stock market cautious. The company's image enjoyed a fresh start, too. The subject of exasperation among publishers last year, Waterstone's is a good deal more popular now.