Preview: UFC on Fox 28 ‘Emmett vs. Stephens’

Emmett vs. Stephens

This Saturday’s
UFC on Fox 28 bill may not end up being the “Event of the Year”
for 2018, but we have all accepted the
Ultimate Fighting Championship’s “new normal” when it comes to
card construction and caliber; and this is still a strong card -- a
quality blend of necessary bouts between top-10 contenders,
featuring both entertaining veterans and emergent talent.

Honestly, at this point, that offers a bit of comfort and
contentment. It would be vain and Pollyannaish to expect much
more.

Topping this card from the Amway Center is a featherweight clash
between sudden contender Josh Emmett
and Jeremy
Stephens, who with his 28th Octagon appearance will tie
Jim
Miller for the second-most UFC bouts in history, leaving him
just one behind Michael
Bisping’s 29. Meanwhile, the co-feature pits two of the very
best strawweight women in the world, Jessica
Andrade and Tecia
Torres, against one another. On the line is a likely a title
shot, with the winner being primed to face the victor in April’s
Rose
Namajunas-Joanna
Jedrzejczyk rematch.

Hopefully, this event will be a reminder that there are more ways
to have fun in Orlando, Florida, than going to Disney World.
Without further ado, your odds and analysis of UFC on Fox 28:

Featherweight

ANALYSIS: Our main event smartly made and matched
for this moment but certainly represents a contrast of
circumstances. Stephens is 14-13 in the Octagon and is one of the
longest-tenured fighters in the promotion, going on 11 years under
UFC employ. Meanwhile, despite debuting in the UFC with an unbeaten
11-0 record, Emmett was not on the radar as a top-flight prospect
upon entry. Since losing his first career bout to Desmond
Green in April and cutting back down to 145 pounds, it is as if
the Team Alpha Male fighter flicked a switch. First, he savagely
bashed Felipe
Arantes in October, knocking down “Sertanejo” four times in one
round -- a single-fight UFC record. Then, at UFC on Fox 26 in
December, he announced his arrival as a legitimate contender,
absolutely nuking former title challenger Ricardo
Lamas with a positively savage left hook that left Lamas stiff
as a board.

For most of his lengthy UFC run, the 31-year-old Stephens presented
as a generally fun but flawed brawler whose calling card seemingly
forever was his November 2008 uppercut from hell on Rafael dos
Anjos; the idea of his becoming a title threat at lightweight
or featherweight seemed far-fetched. While he is still far from
consistent -- he is 4-5 in his last nine bouts -- it is undeniable
that his move to
Alliance MMA in San Diego and working under coach Eric Del
Fierro has retooled his game for the better. While Stephens’ DNA as
a free-swinging brawler still crops up on occasion, he has largely
transformed into a much more diligent boxer while richly
supplementing his game with sound kicking offense, vastly improved
distance management, patience and countering ability.

Emmett, 32, is still a developing prospect, but the general
blueprint of his style seems to be set. A former wrestler at City
College and Menlo College, the
Team Alpha Male product has fleshed out his striking game with
powerful switch-step boxing, steadily bobbing his head from
side-to-side, shifting stances and launching nasty hooks with both
hands, landing just over four significant strikes per minute.
Beyond his bob-and-weave boxing, Emmett still manages to use his
wrestling effectively, averaging two takedowns per 15 minutes and
remaining sturdy in the clinch.

Stephens is no slouch in the clinch, either. Though he is normally
in a defensive posture in close as he is fending off takedowns,
Stephens is capable of landing big punches, elbows and knees in
tight spaces when he can. Defending 64.7 percent of takedowns,
Stephens’ takedown defense has improved as his overall MMA game has
improved, and while he is at his weakest when on his back, he has
also become better at getting back to his feet when planted on the
canvas. If Emmett is going to implement his wrestling here, the
emphasis will have to be on controlling Stephens and keeping him
down, especially in a 25-minute affair.

Both men have wrestling chops and there will be moments of
grappling here, but I think it is fair to imagine that most of this
bout will be fought at medium range, with each man trying to feint
the other into moving first, then launching his heaviest punches.
Emmett’s best chance is to use movement and clever angles to stick
and move on Stephens to frustrate him and bring out the old “Lil
Heathen,” who is prone to getting agitated, abandoning reason and
turning into a brawler. Emmett has shown a great vulnerability to
the jab, as indicated by his fights with Desmond
Green and Jon Tuck, but
Stephens is not much of a jabber. However, Green and Tuck also
managed to have their greatest success with well-timed leg and body
kicks against Emmett, and Stephens’ evolution certainly has affords
him that option.

Emmett has gone into the fifth round once in his career but has
demonstrated a propensity to slow down in the second half of
15-minute bouts. Stephens does not lack for cardio, so if he can
avoid turning into “the old Stephens” and maintain kicking
distance, this is his fight to lose. Both men have the power to
sleep one another with potent counterpunches, but in this close
contest, Stephens’ fitness, distance management and kicking offense
give him the edge. Stephens by competitive decision is the
call.