Tuesday, March 30, 2010

It's coming...2016

So what about the massive leaps in innovation that occur during the fat times of a Keynesians bender? I would be hesitant to say the leaps forward made during a boom are artificial; the abundance may represent a temporary glut, but the economy will grow into these new innovations. So long as there is a bust, the poor ideas will get culled, while the good ones remain. However, I wonder wether an artificially volatile boom and bust cycle is efficient? Furthermore, should I be concerned when the down cycle gets interrupted by a central power acting on the economy?

As the lecturer commented (about min. 32), booms spur a rapid surge in innovation. And innovation, like ideas are synergistic, when they combine their sum is much greater then their parts. Now in a much more prudent and rational economy, like the one proposed by the Austrians, would innovation be a much more subdued affair? Would the internet have taken twice as long to reach the same level of penetration and usability in an Austrian dominated world?

(I am a little scattered on this post.) I enjoyed the lecture, and though the speaker had some compelling ideas. Tall buildings, as with most mega scale projects, usually equate to a very outsized projection of economic viability. Economic realities are so much less glamorous than infinitely appreciating returns. Yet, Richard is right, don't trust anyone who says they can predict economic cycles with near certainty.

If Mr. Thorton is correct, the next tallest skyscraper will correlate, within a year or two, to the economic devastation of the host country. So here is the next contender. It is in Kuwait and it not only tops out at 1001 meters (alarm bells), but it has triple decker elevators (flashing lights), and it's own Olympic stadium (people in orange vests and hardhats running around in general panic), and the coupe de grace, the tower will have ailerons that provide stability in high winds: utter global economic implosion. If this economy crushing megalith does not sink Kuwait into an economic black hole culminating in a lost century, then I would call Mr. Thorton's theory bunk. The tower is scheduled to be completed in 20016 and ground has already been broken on the construction.