Abstract

The second order elections model is a useful tool to explain the dynamics of relationship between voting patterns at different level elections. The model envisages elections other than the national contests subordinate to the national elections, and calls them second order national contests. This study examines the patterns of relationship between Turkish local and national elections using the model of second order elections. Basic assumptions of the model; i.e. lower turnout in second order elections, dominance of national issues in voting decisions of voters, vote loss of incumbent parties in the face of rising votes for the smaller parties in second order contests, are tested using the data from Turkish local and national elections as well as a pre-election survey data. The inquiry is conducted at two levels: At the aggregate level average turnout rates for different elections are compared. Also volatility, fragmentation and Effective Number of Parties (ENP) indices are calculated for each election. At the individual level a previously conducted pre-election survey data is utilized in order to build up a logistic regression model. The model controls for the effects of various socio-political, economic, ideological and candidate variables on the decision of voters to change or not to change votes between a national and a local election. These analyses show that although dominated by the national issues (as expected by the model), local issues and candidates are important in Turkish local elections (contrary to the expectations) and local elections do not consistently work in favor of smaller parties. Rather, they fit to national electoral trends, either by validating existing political trends or by signaling rise of a new arrangement in the political scene.