Despite frequent global shocks upsetting the rupee recently, there is a two-thirds probability of it appreciating to 64 per dollar by March 31, 2016 from 66.1 now...

Despite frequent global shocks upsetting the rupee recently, there is a two-thirds probability of it appreciating to 64 per dollar by March 31, 2016 from 66.1 now, if gradual improvement continues in the macro indicators such as low inflation and current account deficit, CRISIL Research said in a report on Wednesday.

“On the domestic front, the key underlying assumption is that the gradual improvement in India’s macroeconomic indicators (a low CAD, falling inflation, lower fiscal deficit) will continue,” it said.This would also need to be accompanied by some more credible policy measures to improve ease of doing business, which can improve investor appetite, it added. But Crisil cautioned there is a one-third chance the rupee could fall to 67 a dollar if a status quo remains in domestic policy setting and the ongoing global turbulence continues.