The election of Donald Trump was been very good for my balances in retirement. Overall my retirement assets were up about 35% on January 26, 2018 and as of this writing February 14, 2018 were still up 31% since election day 2016. Yet I voted for Hillary Clinton (unenthusiastically) and feel the case can be made with data that the Russian’s did impact the outcome of the election. No they did not hack voting machines. They did use social media and data stolen from the DNC to change peoples minds. Below the state by state case.

Michigan has 16 electoral votes according to politico. Donald Trump won 2,279,805 47.6% of the vote as opposed to 2,268,193 47.3% for Hillary Clinton. The margin of victory was 11,612 votes. Source: Michigan results Politico

Facebook reports millions of ad impressions, paid for by accounts associated with Russian accounts, posts to “news” stories were aimed at voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Fact link: New York Times

It should be noted that the campaigns spent $81 million on Facebook ads thus far the Russians $46K. See this link for data:Tech Crunch story

Donald Trump according to wikipedia won 304 electoral votes to 227 for Hillary Clinton. The close states total 46 electoral votes. The margin of victory totaled 79,848 votes. Magically eliminates the email hack of the DNC and assume the Russian Facebook buy was well crafted and influenced undecided votes is also eliminated.

Swing 46 electoral votes to Clinton. Her total becomes 273 electoral votes with 270 votes required for getting elected president.

The Russian ad buys resulted in 128 million views according to Facebook analysis. These were concentrated in the three states listed above. The campaigns had many more views in these three states. These were legal, allowed by election law the Russian ad’s were illegal.

Could the Russian ads changed 80,000 votes in three states? Yes. Does it make me angry? Yes. though I will admit the anger is lessoned by my retirement account growth. Yes I can be bought.

If the Russian illegal ad buys swung the election it is a watershed event and worthy of note.

Hillary Clinton was advised to campaign harder in all three states. Believing she was winning she chose to be elsewhere. Just as she did in 2008 she assumed she was winning and ran a terrible campaign.

A few more rallies in all three states and less arrogance and she could have won. The private email server designed to avoid Freedom of Information requests sealed the deal.

The Russians may have illegally changed 80,000 minds. The reason it only required this number lies in Hillary Clintons lap. Many criticize our electoral process. However if you can’t run a good campaign you may not be effective at running the country.

]]>http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&p=780Never again is now. We must wait for the evidence and then act or never be forgiven.http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=73#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=73#respondFri, 30 Aug 2013 00:31:33 +0000http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=73
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In the aftermath of World War I, in which horrific chemical weapons attacks caused many deaths and much suffering, the world said it was enough. The weapons were banned from use in warfare. Saddam Hussein of Iraq used them to devastating effect against his Kurdish rebellion. Though it took nearly 18 years, he finally faced […]]]>

In the aftermath of World War I, in which horrific chemical weapons attacks caused many deaths and much suffering, the world said it was enough. The weapons were banned from use in warfare. Saddam Hussein of Iraq used them to devastating effect against his Kurdish rebellion. Though it took nearly 18 years, he finally faced justice for his crimes.

After a decade of war in Afghanistan, the British Parliament failed to endorse military action against Syria for use of these weapons on its own population. The evidence was not conclusive, the UN was still on the ground. The war weary British public spoke and the UK will not take part in military action.

France still seems eager.

President Obama is not planning a vote on military action, because under the 1973 war powers act any engagement of under 60 days does not require such a vote. Morally, based on the campaign he ran for office beginning in 2007, Barak Obama must go to congress. If he does not, he is a hypocrite and so is Joe Biden, famously remembered for threatening to impeach George W. Bush if he took similar action against Iran.

I think the US should wait for conclusive evidence. I say that not because I will be visiting my home in Israel, but because some part of the public might be convinced if we wait for the facts to come out. It will take a couple of weeks but is worth it.

If the US refrains from backing action if it has conclusive evidence then it is another kettle of fish.

The government of Syria is using sarin on its people. They posses the delivery systems, the weapons and the motivation. If they are allowed to get away from this, that is proof the world has forgotten the holocaust.

After 6 million Jews died during World War II, the world created Israel, a home for the Jews and said, “Never again”. Many of the martyrs of that era were killed with poison gas. That strikes a particularly sensitive core with Israel, which shares a common border with Syria.

If we wait for the evidence and Syria is guilty of war crimes, eg using Chemical Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction on its own people, we must act. To not act in such circumstances proves the world learned nothing from the holocaust.

In action would prove Obama toothless, or the US Congress if it fails to support action. It could further be easily blamed on George W Bush for launching the Iraq war on false pretenses, thereby creating the war weariness policymakers now face.

My family lives in the Etzion region of Israel. I get up at 4:20 am in Seattle to go running and I often listen to Radio Israel on my smart phone. This morning during my run I heard the phrase that indicates a rocket attack is in progress.

My hometown which my wife does not want published, and my region were both were both mentioned in the alert which translates as Code Red.

I turned off the radio app and called home. For nearly 15 minutes I was unable to get through.

Finally I got through to my daughter who described for me how the sirens went off and she heard a very loud explosion, powerful enough to shake the homes in my community

She went to the shelter at her friends house. My son also went to the nearby shelter for he too was at a friends house. They described after the all clear was sounded how parents went into the streets, looking for their children.

At the grocery store, my wife and the other customers, Arab and Jewish were ushered into the synagogue, until the all clear was sounded. Two missiles, fired from Gaza, aimed at civilians landed within a kilometer of my home.

Suffice it to say, I have skin in this game.

that Secretary Clinton landed in Israel today to try and prevent an escalation of the conflict.

Is that the best policy? Perhaps the time has come to liberate the 1.7 million prisoners of the Islamist government in Gaza, which came to power by a coup.

This region has become a terrorist base for Iran.

Secretary of State Clinton is in Israel to advise restraint and broker a cease fire.

Tell me if Connecticut and New York were separate countries and 2000 missiles were fired from Greenwich Connecticut into Manhattan what would we say if someone counseled restraint?

Would we give peace a chance or flatten Greenwich? I think it is time for the US administration to back Israeli military action and plan for the post Hamas/Iranian proxy state in Gaza

Iran lied yesterday, denying they supplied missiles to Hamas in Gaza. That shows they fear use of force against them. There is a lesson to be learned there.

This is tongue and cheek and humorous. It is not meant to make light of the current situation in Gaza. It is not meant to make light of the heinous crime of Hamas shooting at civilians and killing a 25 year old mother of 3 who was 7 months pregnant. click for details . That and psalms being said for Israel, it was time for me to take a breath.

My family lives in the yishuv of Rosh Tzurim, in Gush Etzion. That is known to the world as the occupied West Bank. To me it is home. On Friday morning, I heard that two missiles fired at Jerusalem, fell short and exploded in the Gush Etzion region. I was at work in Seattle. My wife and daughter were at home. When they heard the sirens they thought it was a drill, not aware that Israel never holds such drills on the Sabbath. When the sirens went off it was during the prayer welcoming the Sabbath. The sirens were taken seriously, and by the time the explosions were heard everyone in synagogue was as far away from the windows as possible.

What is funny about this? Nothing. It is serious business. But it did lead to a humorous aftermath.

Israeli law mandates that every home have a bomb shelter. Most use the room for storage or an extra bedroom. We use it for storage. I have a 60 year old train set in there and my family keeps storing junk in there that they can’t part with. Every time I’m there I rail about the state of this room. “If its junk,” I say, “throw it away.”

After hearing the sirens and explosions, my son took it upon himself to clean out the entire room, throw out junk, neatly put the Lionel train set in a box, and put sleeping futons on the room. I pray every waking moment that the room will never have to be used.

But a long sought goal has been met, and I didn’t have to lift a finger.

Politically, I think it was a mistake for the Obama administration to green light a ground invasion. Prime Minister Netanyahu has authorized the calling up of 75,000 reservists, half of which are already at the front lines. With an election coming up, the last thing the Prime Minister wants to do is have dead soldiers coming home.

That being said, no nation on earth has tolerated missiles being fired at its territory for so long. If the IDF is forced to launch a ground offensive, they should finish the job, depose the coup installed Hamas government and turn the keys over to Abu Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.

The West Bank Based PA has done an admiral job policing its own territory, thanks to the intensive training provided to its police forces in Jordan, paid for by the US taxpayer. More police, which in my interaction with them have a professionalism that meets or exceeds that of the Chicago Police can be trained in short order to take over the Gaza strip.

That being said, I hope there is no invasion. I hope for peace and an permanent end to missile fire. I know that most Arabs in the Gaza strip just want to live their lives in peace. Its their government that continues to screw them. It’s their government that wants a right wing government in place in Israel in order to continue to have an excuse to deny their people basic human rights and blame Israel.

]]>http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&p=630Reason 4 to re-elect the president: We don’t know which Romney we will get.http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=60#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=60#respondFri, 02 Nov 2012 22:56:05 +0000http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=60
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The pundits talk about the two Romney’s, the one that belched fire during the Republican primaries or the calm and reasonable guy that showed up to the debates. The lack of definition in many areas of policy makes it difficult to discern whom we would be voting for. This covers many areas, including but not […]]]>

The pundits talk about the two Romney’s, the one that belched fire during the Republican primaries or the calm and reasonable guy that showed up to the debates. The lack of definition in many areas of policy makes it difficult to discern whom we would be voting for. This covers many areas, including but not limited to tax and economic policy, foreign policy, specifically the Arab Spring Israel and Iran. When President Obama says he means what he says, he does at least most of the time mean it. There are only a few days before the election and I’m going to try and be positive, make my case going forward. But for now the negativity continues.

We’ve been over tax policy. Romney has consistently advocated a 20% across the board rate cut. Besides giving tax breaks to people like himself and Barack Obama, the plan lacks definition and details. He had to advocate a large tax cut to get through the Republican primaries. Many Republicans believe he will abandon the tax plan due tot he severity of our nations fiscal and financial problems. I ask one question. Wouldn’t it be better to know what he really believes BEFORE we vote for him? I’m just saying.

During the primary campaign he made strong speeches against the presidents Israel policy. I hold dual citizenship and live on the West Bank, so I’m qualified to comment. The fact is the president had some legitimate differences with Israel. Israel agreed to a freeze in settlement construction in 2009 in order to comply with an Obama wish. Israel and Jew’s in general resented it and it cost Obama support. The Israelis were disingenuous in how they implemented the freeze. They allowed any house under construction the day of the freeze to continue. So what happened the three weeks before the freeze? Thousands of foundations were laid all over the West Bank. During the freeze construction was up. Was Obama legitimately annoyed. Yes. When Israel agrees to do something, they should do without regrets. They could have said no to President Obama and suffered less grief.

Romney points out correctly there was daylight between the policies of Israel and the Obama administration. However republican presidents have a long history of being nice to Israel during the campaign and not delivering. Republican candidates Dole, Bush, Bush and McCain have made lofty promises to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, the capital of Israel. Those that won have failed to deliver. Will Romney be different? I hope I don’t find out, but I don’t think so.

The Romney campaign of the primaries was an example of jujitsu. They criticized and then supported the Libyan intervention. They advocated a more aggressive approach to the Arab Spring. When pressed for details, they did not come out. At the debates there was no daylight between the president and Romney on any foreign policy issue. Not Israel, not Iran, not anything except an esoteric debate on the size of the navy.

Which Romney would show up on January 20, 2013? Do you want to find out.

]]>http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&p=600Reason 3 to re-elect Obama: A realistic plan for the nations finances.http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=58#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=58#respondThu, 01 Nov 2012 05:05:14 +0000http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=58
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Mitt Romney has said he will not raise taxes, not even a dollar to solve the budget issues this country faces. He insists that we can cut our way out of a trillion dollar per year debt crisis. Maybe he said this to fire up the Tea party wing of the Republican party. Maybe he […]]]>

Mitt Romney has said he will not raise taxes, not even a dollar to solve the budget issues this country faces. He insists that we can cut our way out of a trillion dollar per year debt crisis. Maybe he said this to fire up the Tea party wing of the Republican party. Maybe he will flip flop in office. Can we afford to take that risk?

Prominent economists say that cuts alone will not solve the nations fiscal crisis. Entitlement reform is needed. The tax code needs to be reformed and loopholes and tax subsidies eliminated. New revenues are required. Programs will have to be cut.

President Barack Obama seems to get that, though his plans are nearly as vague as Romney’s plans. He has proposed budgets however and compromised with Republicans on the debt ceiling.

Remember the debates in August of 2011 about the debt ceiling. Mitt Romney said he would not raise the debt ceiling. Did he mean it or did he just say it to make the Tea Party wing of the party happy? Which is worse?

I frequently say that the way to tell whether a politician is lying is that his mouth is moving and words are coming out. Remember those Joe Isuzu car commercials(hes lying). The Romney campaign has adopted a line of attack that involves telling big lies, repeating them early and often. They are clearly betting on the American people being stupid. I find it very insulting. So should you.

Cases and points:

The Romney campaign launched an advertisement on television in Ohio claiming that the Chrysler is planning to move Jeep production to China. The facts are that they are restarting a venture in China suspended during the Great (Bush, Republican) recession. Chrysler releases two statements in two days denying the facts in the ad. The ad continues to run. Repeat the lie, early and often hope enough people believe it.

The Romney campaign and the candidate himself claim that he was in favor of the auto bail out as the Obama administration did it, managed bankruptcy. In fact in 2008 he wrote a New York Times Op-ed piece advocating for a bankruptcy using private financing. There was in fact no private financing available and his plan would have resulted in the liquidation of the companies, the loss of over 1 million jobs and a ripple effect that could have triggered an economic depression. This is the man who says he can do a better job than Barack Obama? Yet the lies go on, this as in the last case continuing to flow out of the candidates mouth.

Welfare reform. The candidate and his well fueled ad machine claim Obama ended the welfare work requirement. Again major news outlets have made clear that this is a lie. The ads however continue to run.

The candidate talks about lowering the top tax rate for everyone to 20%. Those that have tried to score the cut based on the scanty information provided by Romney that the tax cut would cost $5 Trillion. The candidate says its revenue neutral. Well maybe in his head, we don’t know what he is going to do to the tax code to make it revenue neutral.

The candidate claimed that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion. In fact Obamacare projected saving $700 billion in over payments written in the law for Medicare Advantage, which pays insurance companies (can you spell republican contributors) a bonus of 12% over what other insurance providers for the program get.

There are dozens of lies just like these running all over the air, internet and flowing out of the mouths of Romney and his campaign staff. I will not deny there have been lies from the Obama camp. It is irritating and frustrating for certain. But the size of the lies from Romney and the number of lies from Romney in my mind disqualify him. He is not honest with the American people. He seems to feel he must lie to get elected.

If he believes his own lies, I think he should have an Alzheimer’s examination right now. If as I suspect he knows he’s lying then I believe this disqualifies him for office. I wish neither side lied, but the size and the scope of the problem make this reason #2 for voting Barack Obama back into office.

Remember the Romney response when journalists pointed out their factual errors. “We will not let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.” I guess they won’t let their message be determined by actual facts either.

]]>http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&p=540Reasons to vote for Barack Obama: Reason 1: Health care.http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=52#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=52#respondTue, 30 Oct 2012 06:20:57 +0000http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=52
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While the nation is undergoing a national emergency, I turn back to politics, hopefully once a day between now and the election. Why? Because I planned to and there is nothing I can do about hurricane Sandy and the nuclear fuel rods that may get swamped with flood water during the next few hours. There […]]]>

While the nation is undergoing a national emergency, I turn back to politics, hopefully once a day between now and the election. Why? Because I planned to and there is nothing I can do about hurricane Sandy and the nuclear fuel rods that may get swamped with flood water during the next few hours. There is nothing I can do about the massive power outage in Lower Manhattan so I turn my fingers and keyboard to something productive. The reasons why Barack Obama should be given a second term.

The first reason why Barack Obama should be elected is Obamacare. I was in a hotel on the way to Israel in 2010 when the bill passed. I had missed a flight and was in a hotel bar trying to get a cold coke. Mostly the workers, of Latin American descent were cleaning up. The political spectacle of the bill passing was on every television screen. There was a palpable sense of relief and entitlement on the faces of the workers as they whispered quietly.

Finally the United States of America was on the road that almost all civilized nations had been on for decades. Affordable healthcare available at a fair price to all Americans. The ability to keep your children on your policy until age 26. A law that prevents pre-existing conditions from being used to deny health coverage.

I am a dual citizen. My adopted home in Israel. There has been universal health care coverage there since 1950. The care is not quite as good as the United States, but people there don’t go bankrupt due to illness.

Romney wants to take this hard won benefit away. The only way to be sure and stop him is to vote for the guy that can veto a budget that does not include adequate funding for the initiative. Though not perfect, the Romney repeal and replace plank is simply not true. It means put the insurance companies back in charge and let them do what they want to us for profit.

]]>http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&p=520Why Condi is the right VP choice for Romneyhttp://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=49#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=49#respondFri, 13 Jul 2012 20:44:51 +0000http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=49
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The voters know by wide margin who is at fault for the current recession. Try as he might Romney will be hard pressed to change this perception. He has to run on the economy, I don’t think that will work, but he can strengthen himself in other areas. One is foreign policy heft. Rice brings […]]]>

The voters know by wide margin who is at fault for the current recession. Try as he might Romney will be hard pressed to change this perception. He has to run on the economy, I don’t think that will work, but he can strengthen himself in other areas. One is foreign policy heft. Rice brings that. Her position on abortion? Feh. Romney is the nominee, what are the Tea Party people going to do vote for Obama?

Obama’s primary campaign theme is as follows: “The economy is on the mend, Detroit is making cars, and Osama bin Laden is dead. Obama’s stewardship of American foreign policy has been solid. He has done a fairly good job, the country perceives itself to be safer, and he has 3.5 years of foreign policy experience.

Oh and remember, he ordered bin Laden’s death, cleaning up one of George and Condi’s messes.

Mitt Romney has zero foreign policy experience. This is an issue that Obama will use to hammer him. The world is a dangerous place and we should continue to back experienced leadership. Who do you trust for that 3 am phone call? Think the Obama team won’t do that? You bet they will and without any remorse. These political campaigns make up their own facts and truly have no shame.

Yes, Condi believes in abortion rights. That is a political problem. But she solves the foreign policy problem. She has learned from Bush Administration mistakes, which I believe most people hold Cheney responsible for not her. But she knows how to keep America safe. The fact that she doesn’t want the job is no big deal. She can be cornered and “convinced” into taking and doing the job.

Palin hurt McCain. He was a senior citizen and people were scared to death about her as a president. No problems with Condi there. People knows she has the gravitas to do the job and make the right choices in the situation room at 3 am. I think that should matter the most. It says a lot about Romney if he picks her. Good things.

]]>http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&p=490Obamacare:The decision that should not have been made. Supreme Court violates Federal Law.http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=46#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=46#respondThu, 28 Jun 2012 20:13:29 +0000http://www.investmenttool.com/wordpress/?p=46
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The supreme court proved it is a political court again with today’s decision. No majority was reached on the commerce clause issue. Therefore no decision should have been made. The court debated this. In the instance of a tax, you can not go to court about the tax until you pay it. This is Federal […]]]>

The supreme court proved it is a political court again with today’s decision. No majority was reached on the commerce clause issue. Therefore no decision should have been made.

The court debated this. In the instance of a tax, you can not go to court about the tax until you pay it. This is Federal Law, upheld by the court previously. Since the tax does not go into effect until 2014 there is no case to be brought. Yet the Supreme Court,with no legal basis decided the penalty for not obeying the insurance mandate was a tax and was within the tax authority of the US Congress.

The correct decision was above, you have no case until you pay the tax. But the court wanted to make and publish a decision and did.

It did not really decide the commerce clause issue either. There were 4 votes saying the commerce clause can not be used to force us to buy insurance, and 4 votes saying it can be used to this effect.

The court ruled in advance that the penalty was a tax and was Constitutional. But since nobody actually paid the tax Federal Law prohibits the court from deciding the case. So in effect the Supreme court violated the law and as usual got away with it.

Okay they were being nice, they were trying to clear up the issue and limit litigation. They did the right thing. They just violated the law.

The political implications are huge. Obama sold this as not being a tax. Legally, the court says it is a tax and then they overstepped and said it a constitutional tax. That last part should have waited for a case brought in 2014.

Romney now has a HUGE tax increase to run against. Obama, a president who actually cut taxes and the size of government has a huge problem. But at least the court did not take away our health care.