Grandfather Davidhttps://grandpadavid.wordpress.com
Musings, music and stuff like poetry and such
Mon, 17 Dec 2018 03:54:32 +0000 en
hourly
1 http://wordpress.com/https://secure.gravatar.com/blavatar/b1e813f4454dd4a8cca2fbe86cfc9ef3?s=96&d=https%3A%2F%2Fs0.wp.com%2Fi%2Fbuttonw-com.pngGrandfather Davidhttps://grandpadavid.wordpress.com
THE SATURDAY ESSAY: if we ignore the ticking clock, the next problem will be a ticking bombhttps://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2018/12/10/the-saturday-essay-if-we-ignore-the-ticking-clock-the-next-problem-will-be-a-ticking-bomb/
https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2018/12/10/the-saturday-essay-if-we-ignore-the-ticking-clock-the-next-problem-will-be-a-ticking-bomb/#respondMon, 10 Dec 2018 11:02:13 +0000http://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2018/12/10/the-saturday-essay-if-we-ignore-the-ticking-clock-the-next-problem-will-be-a-ticking-bomb/The Slog.: IT’S SIX MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT FOR ELECTIVE DEMOCRACY IN THE WEST. AT 12.06, RESISTANCE WILL BE SHUT DOWN. THE TIME TO AVOID VIOLENT ANARCHY IS NOW ¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤ As the end of the week draws nigh,…]]>

IT’S SIX MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT FOR ELECTIVE DEMOCRACY IN THE WEST. AT 12.06, RESISTANCE WILL BE SHUT DOWN. THE TIME TO AVOID VIOLENT ANARCHY IS NOW

¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤

As the end of the week draws nigh, we see our legislative, governmental and Alt State ranks marching forth in the manner of Sgt Bilko’s Motor Pool platoon. Directionless and bumping into each other like so many Dobermans and Paparellis, their only concerted goal is to invent and use more ways of ensuring that their will on Brexit prevails, such that the last thing to prevail – whatever it takes – will be Brexit.

Delayed votes, second referendums, and pretty soon no doubt an old kitchen sink. As I keep on saying (and the view is not popular) the only way out now is a snap General Election during which allBrits with a sense of national duty get behind a Sovereign…

Yet another terrifying warning that Russia could knock out the National Grid in a lethal strike has been issued, this time by the Defence Secretary – but the UK government has issued no advice stating what residents should do should the lights go out.

Gavin Williamson’s warning that Russia could cause “thousands and thousands and thousands” of deaths in Britain through an attack on the island’s electricity distribution system comes just days after the head of the National Cyber Security Centre appeared to suggest an attack of this nature was inevitable

And of course the real reason for the scaremongering:

He told E&T: “There is a tension between the UK, as member of NATO and as part of the sanctions regime against Russia, and Russia itself. There is military posturing that goes along as part of that and there are various aspects of what has sometimes been referred to as hybrid warfare or information warfare that goes on, too.

“I am not aware of, nor do I think there has been, an explicit threat from the Russian side to any aspect of British infrastructure, including the electricity grid.”

He added: “There are concerns over what would happen if the current cold conflict with Russia were to escalate and I think that’s what seems to be driving the general message from the MoD that more funding is needed.

Now we have the real truth.

Of course the UK could stop acting as the lap dog of the US. The politicians and elites cannot get enough of the ‘Reds under the beds’. It is just like going back to the 60’s. How about dropping the US, the people who are actually the most likely to cause a war, and form a better friendship with our European friends the Russians?

]]>https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2018/01/30/reds-under-the-bed-again/feed/0grandpadavidSmudge’s Diary December the 27th 2017https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/12/27/smudges-diary-december-the-27th-2017/
https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/12/27/smudges-diary-december-the-27th-2017/#respondWed, 27 Dec 2017 11:55:45 +0000http://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/?p=1146Continue reading →]]>Ha! Semi-feral are I? Not likely. Over the past few months I have worked on the giants and bended them to my will. I didn’t wrote anything in that time ‘cos I was SO busy. Sleeping is hard work and tiring, honest.

Actually, you may not be able to see, but my eyes are closed ‘cos I fell asleep posting this.

My food supply has got tastier and is unlimited, all I have to do is ask and rub against the giant’s legs, and last night marked a milestone in my Giant training efforts when I permitted them to keep me in the house overnight. I think they was very grateful that I was so gracious.

I knew I would win in the end! Now I have to work on better sleeping quarters and instructing the giants that my brother Maximillian Limpyleg should also be persuaded to allow them to take him in out of the cold and wet Irish weather.

I am exhausted after paying a visit outside for what a girl has to do and am going to curl up in the warm and work hard at sleeping for a few more hours.

Note to self: This ejection into the cold periodically is a pain. I have to instruct the giants to find some alternative that does not entail me getting cold and wet when going about my business. I did suggest a cat-flap so I could choose my timing but they were extremely unreasonable and said that it would allow all my cousins, aunts, uncles and parents to come in as well. Personally I don’t have a problem with that.

]]>https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/30/dont-give-g4s-serco-the-power-to-arrest/feed/0grandpadavidStorm Ophelia in Mayo: The dangers of inappropriate forecastinghttps://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/17/storm-ophelia-in-mayo-the-dangers-of-inappropriate-forecasting/
https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/17/storm-ophelia-in-mayo-the-dangers-of-inappropriate-forecasting/#respondTue, 17 Oct 2017 10:54:50 +0000http://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/?p=1125Continue reading →]]>First I acknowledge the source of my data for actual wind speeds recorded and forecast bulletins as Met Eireann and have assumed the usage here to be acceptable under their copyright which states: The use of the web pages, and the information contained within them, for private and non-commercial purposes, for teaching, and for research, is allowed subject to the condition that the source of the information is always credited in connection with its use.

I ask readers to note that my censure is solely directed to weather forecasting and Television media as related to the Mayo area and not elsewhere. I do feel that the inclusion of Mayo in the Status Red warning was over the top and inappropriate in the light of other data that is freely available. It was very obvious from the data presented on Earth:NullSchool that Mayo was NOT in line for anything worse than that which we usually experience during Autumn and Winter storms.

On the video above the location is shown with the small green ring near the top right hand corner and just on the west coast of Ireland. The actual location is shown on the video in Lat/Lon.

In the run up to Storm Ophelia dire warnings were posted on the Met Eireann web site, and rightly so as ex-Ophelia was due to be severe in the south of Ireland.

Below are the three days Status warning and Connacht regional forecasts up to and including the 16th. Any emphasis is by me.

14th October

STATUS YELLOW: Weather Advisory for Ireland. On Monday an Atlantic storm from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move northwards close to Ireland. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of the storm. However storm force winds heavy rain and high seas are threatened. Met Eireann will continue to monitor this storm and will issue appropriate warnings as required. Issued: Friday 13 October 2017 08:00. Valid: Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 06:00. [This was appropriate]

Connacht: 14 October 2017- updated at 06:00. Today: Cloudy and misty at first today with scattered outbreaks of rain and drizzle. It will become dry in most parts by early afternoon but rain will affect parts of the west coast at times. Some bright spells will develop inland. Highs of 16 to 18 Celsius and mildest in the southeast. Light southerly breezes will increase moderate to fresh with strong winds developing near the west coast. Tonight: Cloudy and breezy overnight with outbreaks of rain and drizzle spreading from the west. Mild with lows 10 to 13 Celsius in fresh and gusty southerly winds which will be strong near the west coast. [This was appropriate]

15th October

STATUS RED: Wind Warning for Galway Mayo Clare Cork and Kerry. Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions . Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected potentially causing structural damage and disruption with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding. Issued: Saturday 14 October 2017 13:18. Valid: Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00. [This was not appropriate for Mayo]
STATUS ORANGE: Wind Warning for The rest of the country. Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday. Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between 110 and 130km/h are expected however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding. Issued: Saturday 14 October 2017 13:21. Valid: Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00. [This was appropriate]

Connacht: 15 October 2017- updated at 06:00. Today: Today Sunday will be mild and misty. Rain and drizzle will be fairly widespread this morning and with a few heavier bursts occurring in parts. Top afternoon temperatures of 15 or 16 degrees. Fresh and gusty southerly winds strong to near gale in western coastal areas at first this morning will become northwesterly and ease through the course of the day. Tonight: Further rain and drizzle tonight with the rain turning persistent and heavy with a risk of thunder. Winds will be generally light between northeast and southeast in direction at first but become increasingly gusty northeasterly by dawn. Overnight lows of 9 degrees Celsius. [This was appropriate]

16th October

STATUS RED: Wind Warning for Ireland. Latest Update Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track up over western parts of Ireland during daytime today. Violent and destructive gusts of 120 to 150 km/h are forecast countrywide. These over Munster and south Leinster this morning will extend quickly to the rest of the country this afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding. There is a danger to life and property. To recap Most severe conditions over Munster and South Leinster this morning and early afternoon Remaining areas this afternoon. Issued: Monday 16 October 2017 09:09. Valid: Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00. [This was NOT appropriate as it was too all inclusive.]

Connacht: 16 October 2017- updated at 06:00. Today: Today will be a stormy day as Ex-Hurricane Ophelia moves over the country. Winds will vary in direction and strength through the day but there is the potential for structural damage. There will be heavy rain as well with local flooding. Highest temperatures of 16 to 18 degrees. Tonight: It will continue very windy for a time tonight with showers or longer spells of rain. Later in the night it will become mainly dry and winds will gradually ease a bit. Lowest temperatures of 9 or 10 degrees. Strong to gale force westerly winds will decrease fresh to strong overnight. [This was appropriate if possibly a little over the top and bears little relationship to the status warning of red also issued.]

On the video above you can see that the mean wind forecast speed reached a maximum of 40kph, or just about 25 miles an hour. I have to point out that this is well below mean wind speeds that we get in winter storms. I find it extremely difficult to believe that the Met Eireann and Met Office UK forecasting models can be giving them data that causes them to make such inappropriate all inclusive warnings.

The Met Eireann warning caused the local paper to print this on their Monday edition:

(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Castlebar and probably many other business areas in Mayo and the schools were shut, most from 12 noon onwards presumably based on the last all inclusive Red warning issued by Met Eireann and the continual non-stop scaremongering on the TV about how bad this was going to be. No vective can be directed at these organisations as they were correctly reacting based upon the information that they received.

What did happen weatherwise? Pretty much EXACTLY as forecast on Null School. As I said the projected mean was 40kph and the actual reading at Knock Airport – 20 miles from the location on the projections but higher up (and usually windier) – was just over 37 kph, with a max gust of 50 knots or 57.5 mph which is 92.54 kph. This is a long way off the 120 to 150 kph ‘destructive gusts’ that were forecast and well within the range of gust we usually experience in winter.

(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The real danger of this is that, due to what we actually experienced by comparison to the forecasts, people will be less likely to believe future forecast when they may be appropriate. We all know the story of the boy who cried ‘wolf!’.

Please note that I am not a trained meteorologist, although I did teach meteorology to Air Cadets in the past, and what is expressed above is my opinion based solely on my years as a citizen scientist and a deep interest in all things connected to the weather, earthquakes and volcanoes.

]]>https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/17/storm-ophelia-in-mayo-the-dangers-of-inappropriate-forecasting/feed/0grandpadavidRed Is The Rose (TTBB, SATB, SSAA)https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/08/red-is-the-rose-ttbb/
https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/08/red-is-the-rose-ttbb/#respondSun, 08 Oct 2017 08:44:58 +0000http://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/?p=1113Continue reading →]]>An arrangement of the well known Irish song that tells the tale of two lovers who are parted. The author of the words is unknown and the tune is “The Bonnie Banks o’ Loch Lomond”, or simply “Loch Lomond” for short, a well-known traditional Scottish song (Roud No. 9598) first published in 1841 in Vocal Melodies of Scotland.

The words that are often sung would appear to be a mis-heard version that has got handed down. (See some more details on the PDF of the score). This version uses the 1934 lyrics for the last verse.

There have been 2 very minor changes (a caesura and a single note change) which are incorporated in the PDF versions below.

TTBB

SATB

SSAA

Any of the PDF files, MP4 and MP3 files can be found on my Google Drive[↑][→] and all are freely available to download and distribute subject to the terms of Creative Commons licence CC BY-SA-NC 4.0. These may be added to from time to time as parts or other arrangements are made.

]]>https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/10/08/red-is-the-rose-ttbb/feed/0grandpadavidA week in Pyongyanghttps://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/09/29/a-week-in-pyongyang/
https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/09/29/a-week-in-pyongyang/#respondFri, 29 Sep 2017 05:41:23 +0000http://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/?p=1110Continue reading →]]>A huge photo report Marat Margolin https://vk.com/marat_1985who spent a week in the capital of the Democratic people’s Republic.
Demonstrating the beauty of modern Pyongyang, the author walked along the way, and a number of myths about North Korea.

Having been kept in the kitchen all night with nothing but a drop of milk to drink the big male giant, aka ‘Man Giant’, let me out to see the study. I found She Giant’s chair was quite comfortable so settled myself down on it. I was a little shall we say ‘nervous’ when Man Giant left the room the first time so I aroused myself and followed him. The next time I did not bother as he did not go anywhere interesting.
It was about an hour past normal feeding time and no food had appeared, when Man Giant brought the box thing from the kitchen and stuffed me in it. He then took me, in the box, to the big box that makes scary noises that lives outside the house and put me in the big box still inside the little box. I was a little confused as to what was happening so I kept quiet and looked around me through the slits.

The big box then started making it’s scary noises and moved, still with me inside it! I thought it best just to say nothing but it was a small comfort that Man Giant was still beside me.

The big box stopped and Man Giant took me, still in the little box, into a strange house that smelt, well – odd. Another Man Giant took me out of the box and stuck a needle in me. I did not like that much and tried to get away but the other Man Giant put me back in the little box. I felt very sick and was retching and I heard the other Man Giant say to my Man Giant that this was an effect of the anaesthetic, not that I have a clue what that means. I don’t remember much after that until I woke up, in the little box, back in the kitchen. I was very weak and wobbly and I needed a pee but I hardly even made it out of the box before I just could not hold it. Man Giant put down some newspaper and I dragged myself on to that but I kept on falling over and shaking.

Man Giant went out of the kitchen and I just staggered around like I was drunk not really knowing what I was doing and I had this horrid feeling in my mouth that made me act as if I was very dry but I could not manage milk.

When Man Giant next came in I was dragging myself towards the litter tray. I made it there and piddled but it was so much effort that I just fell asleep where I was, in the soft damp sawdust. Man Giant must have picked me out of the litter tray because the next thing I knew I was in the green basket. I decided to snooze there as the effort of moving was just too much.

Man Giant kept on looking in on me and making those loud kettle noises but to be honest I was beyond caring.

I hope I feel better later. I don’t know what happened but I am sure it was Man Giant’s fault.

Oo I feel so tired and my side hurts….. more on the blog later perhaps.

(Smudge is a young semi-feral female kitten that we had neutered today)

]]>https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/smudges-diary-april-the-3rd-2017/feed/0grandpadavidWeather in January 2017 – West Of Ireland (Mayo)https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/weather-in-january-2017-west-of-ireland-mayo/
https://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/weather-in-january-2017-west-of-ireland-mayo/#respondSun, 05 Feb 2017 15:27:54 +0000http://grandpadavid.wordpress.com/?p=1055Continue reading →]]>These are the figures for January 2017. We are at 109 metres above sea level in the West of Ireland and have the benefit of having a weather station at Knock Airport close by (11 miles as the crow flies) We are about 24 miles from the nearest coastline. Knock is higher than us at around 200 metres. You can see the Monthly data for Knock Airport produced by Met Éireann but what that misses is the thing that we see so little of, the Sunshine! I acknowledge Met Éireann as the source of my Sunshine, Rainfall and Mean Soil Temperatures and the comparison Max and Min temperatures to my own under the terms of Met Éireann’s copyright.
All these charts are freely available here. [→] The charts for this month get uploaded at the when the next month is posted.

Daily Max and Min

(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)
The black line is the barometric pressure at midnight of each day and the Max and Min temperatures are from my own instrument.

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of January 2017(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Table Of Max/Min/Rain/Sun

Graph of the table(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The graph below shows the 7-day moving average of the Max and Min temperatures(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of January 2017(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Temperature spread of Max/Min(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Knock Airport

In the next graphs there are figures for Knock Airport so it is useful to know how Knock differs due to the additional height. The chart below tracks the difference in Max and Min temperature between my readings and those from Knock Airport taken by Met Éireann.(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of January 2017(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The Sunshine graph!(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The long term chart from the start of reading to the end of Decemeber 2016(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The comparison of Sunshine to rainfall and also incorporating Soil Mean Temperature. (Soil is the mean 10cm temperature in Degrees Celsius)(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of January 2017(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Knock Airport GMin/Min comparison(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

These are the figures for December 2016. We are at 109 metres above sea level in the West of Ireland and have the benefit of having a weather station at Knock Airport close by (11 miles as the crow flies) We are about 24 miles from the nearest coastline. Knock is higher than us at around 200 metres. You can see the Monthly data for Knock Airport produced by Met Éireann but what that misses is the thing that we see so little of, the Sunshine! I acknowledge Met Éireann as the source of my Sunshine, Rainfall and Mean Soil Temperatures and the comparison Max and Min temperatures to my own under the terms of Met Éireann’s copyright.
All these charts are freely available here. [→] The charts for this month get uploaded at the when the next month is posted.

Daily Max and Min

(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)
The black line is the barometric pressure at midnight of each day and the Max and Min temperatures are from my own instrument.

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of December 2016(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Table Of Max/Min/Rain/Sun

Graph of the table(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The graph below shows the 7-day moving average of the Max and Min temperatures(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of December 2016(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Temperature spread of Max/Min(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Knock Airport

In the next graphs there are figures for Knock Airport so it is useful to know how Knock differs due to the additional height. The chart below tracks the difference in Max and Min temperature between my readings and those from Knock Airport taken by Met Éireann.(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of December 2016(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The Sunshine graph!(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The long term chart from the start of reading to the end of Decemeber 2016(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The comparison of Sunshine to rainfall and also incorporating Soil Mean Temperature. (Soil is the mean 10cm temperature in Degrees Celsius)(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The chart below is from the start of readings in June 2016 to the end of December 2016(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Knock Airport GMin/Min comparison(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)