Sunday, October 16, 2016

Internet Could Unite Russian Political Emigres But Not Lead to Rapid Change inside Russia

Paul
Goble

Staunton, October 16 – One of the central
ideas of the just completed Forum of Free Russia in Vilnius was the need to
create an Internet presence that could unite the political diaspora as well as
promote change in Russia itself.Achieving the first goal via this means is entirely possible, but
research suggests achieving the second that way is problematic.

That is because websites and social
media are visited in the first instance by people who are already disposed in
one direction or another, and consequently such places tend to reinforce the
views of those who visit them rather than recruit others to the point of view
they seek to promote.

Among those pushing the idea of
developing a web presence for the Russian diaspora were Igor Eidman, a
sociologist who works for Deutsche Welle, and Vsevolod Chernozub, a political émigré
in Lithuania. Their arguments are compelling, especially regarding the
organizing role of that presence for the diaspora (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58023E9D2CFA8).

But a new study by
O.O. Koltsova and E.A. Kirkizh suggests that the Internet may not have the
immediate impact some of those pushing for such an émigré site hope for.
Instead, the two scholars conclude that Internet sites reinforce the views of
those who choose to go to them rather than changing anyone’s mind (O.O.
Koltsova and E.A. Kirkizh, “Vliyaniye Interneta na uchastiye v protestakhm,” Politeia, no. 1 (80) (2016), pp. 90-110
at politeia.ru/files/articles/rus/Koltsova_Kirkizh_Politeia-2016-1(80).pdf).

That
is not to say that such sites could not play a major role over time. Indeed,
given the passing of generations and the increasing Internet savvy of the young
in Russia as in other countries, ever more people may visit such sites
especially as the official government media in Russia becomes ever less
interesting.

But
those promoting such sites and those considering supporting them or other such
sites should remember than far more often than not, the impact of the Internet
is not nearly as fast or as transformative as many of its advocates say,
especially in places like Vladimir Putin’s Russian Federation.