Does Your Penis Curve? AUXL

Hello Everyone. I know it's been a while since I checked in but there has been a confluence of events-- I blog on the NY Giants in season -- so that takes up a lot of my time this time of year. As well of course I just became thoroughly disgusted with the market and found myself uninterested in buying anything.

I went to some high yield names and I made some interesting purchases which I will go through with you all at some length at some time. I'll have to go back to the old threads to see which members of the ET Portfolio I still own. For better or worse there still are quite a few like CIGX & UNIS & CRI.

Today I purchased a stock I have been following technically- AUXL.

I like this Bio name, they have an existing product that is for gnarled curved fingers from short tendons. This product may have a second application for curved penises.

A report I spotted from some house mentioned some Bio's that might surprise to the upside. ALXN was one, but that's no surprise they are ripping to a new high. BMRN was one, no surprise here either been up all year... but AUXL was on that list too so I started digging because it's DOWN from prior highs..

Now if you've watched any amount of Porno in your life you've seen these guys with the big hook in the Penis... it's not a good look. The poor girls squirm, that head is poking at angles that are best left to a discreet self touch. And the guys are way embarrassed when they whip it out. Peyronie's disease is no joke.

Auxilium's other target Dupuytren's Contracture, is a condition that makes the tendons of the hand thicken and shorten, causing the fingers to curve inward. Auxilium started marketing Xiaflex for that painful problem that my Grandmother had in March 2010.

For whatever reason the launch bombed a bit. In August Auxilium lowered its forecast for 2011 U.S. revenue from the drug. It now expects $45 million to $50 million, down from its previous estimate of $50 million to $60 million. A Ten mil hit. Yikes.
The stk was $20 and went on to bottom out at $14. The shortfall for the future rather obscured the fact that second-quarter revenue from Xiaflex rose to $15.4 million from $3.1 million a year ago. So it's moving the right direction UP. The Co oversold it to investors but now that news is priced in we are in on the ground floor today @ $16 and change and hopefully we can guide up from here on Xiaflex for fingers WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING THE CURVED PENIS ANGLE that no one is taking into account at this time.

Lets let a Citi analyst take it from here:

Shares of Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. offer an attractive risk/reward profile due in part to the drugmaker's development of a potential treatment for Peyronie's disease, according to a Citi analyst.

Dr. Lucy Lu upgraded the stock to "Buy/speculative" from "Hold/speculative" and raised a price target on the shares to $25 from $22.

Lu said most medical literature on Peyronie's disease comes from U.S. physicians and reflects large patient numbers and unmet need. The analyst also said Auxilium's late-stage study of the Xiaflex for that disease will likely be successfully after the drug showed promising results in a mid-stage study. She estimates that U.S. sales of Xiaflex as a Peyronie's disease treatment could reach $124 million by 2015.

>>>> Well if at earnings time management could explain away the $10 mil shortfall for the curved fingers and perhaps highlight the new target for the curved penis, a possible $120 mil plus add for Xiaflex... then thing's get interesting from an M&A point of view.

The stock price should climb back to that $20 mark as we approach Halloween's earnings. Then on the good news we will cruise through $22 towards that $25 level and maybe higher. BUY AUXL. ~stoney

I find ALXN , BMRN, and any other stock with negative fundamental numbers a "garbage" stock, particularly given that the market has other stocks with opposite fundamental numbers. So, I never understood why an average investor would want to look in the garbage bag of the market.

Good Morning. If you find ALXN a garbage stock then I can't help you friend! I've got family members up $30 a share in this name and they don't buy small. What a lark.

Ok to those of you that want to make money, perhaps if you don't know me this what I do. I always try to show the research path so you all can do the same. I have many many cheap PE stocks some with high growth, that does not ensure share price appreciation I guarantee you. Right now the Bio index to me looks strong. I have made a very safe large purchase of GILD. I did this because of it's growth, approx 17% and it's pe... 11.

Ok here's the first piece and it's from Cowen-

A group of Cowen and Co. analysts said Monday that biotechnology companies that offer major drug franchises should do well, but shares of companies that are studying or launching new drugs will struggle.

The analysts said their preferred stocks are Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc., Amgen Inc., Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc., Biogen Idec Inc., BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc., and Gilead Sciences Inc. Each of those companies has at least one major drug franchise, and the analysts wrote that over the last three months, prescriptions for major biotech drugs have not changed much despite market uncertainty. They said prices have been raised on several major franchises.

"Stocks with solid franchises look to be a safe haven for investors and tend to perform best as markets recover," the analysts said.

Alexion makes the drug Soliris, a treatment for the blood disease paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria, which causes a breakdown of red blood cells. The condition leads to anemia and can cause blood clots and strokes. Amgen gets most of its revenue from the anemia drugs Aranesp and Epogen, and the bone drugs Prolia and Xgeva. Auxilium makes Xiaflex, which treats Dupuytren's contracture, a condition that makes the tendons of the hand thicken and shorten, causing the fingers to curve inward. Biogen gets much of its revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs Tysabri and Avonex and the cancer drug Rituxan. BioMarin makes Naglazyme and Aldurazyme which treat an inherited metabolic disease that can cause tissue damage and mental retardation. Gilead makes HIV drugs including Atripla and Truvada.

The analysts said the weak U.S. dollar should help Alexion, BioMarin, Gilead, and Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. They wrote that Auxilium could report stronger-than-expected results in the third quarter, and so could Celgene Corp., Emergent Biosolutions Inc., Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

>>>>>>

When I trawl for research of course I look for ideas that I already agree with, so here's someone talking my language. He's giving out names and if you read carefully he says Auxilum " could report stronger than expected results in the 3rd quarter " this is what tied together with a thesis that I was already working on.

>>>>>>>

The second piece (in the above post about the curved Penis) was from Citi and it broke down the potential there real good.
So I have earnings on Halloween that could beat. AND a possible second indication for a drug- an indication that will help a big population of crooked men.

>>>>>>>>>

I'm also very much a chart guy as most of you know-- so take a look at that chart-AUXL- An obvious shelf fall from $20 (area to reclaim) and SERIOUS support down at $14 level, I'd say three bottoms there. At $16 then we have a timely trade and a risk of $2 to the downside vs a reward of at least $6 to the upside, I'd say $10.

I'm not buying a lot in this market folks. I bought GILD I bought RPM I bought a REIT WPC I bought OPK yesterday at $5.00, I'll flesh that out in this thread. I'm looking at NUAN for end of week--- that's about it. Usual for me would be 200 names.

Once I have my head together this morning I'll revisit selected holdings that have been made through ET announcements of the past. ~stoney

The healthcare sector has some hidden gems. One from a couple months ago here at ET was MRGE. Another good one is this Opko.

The company is a diagnostic company at heart and they have recently bought this other company that makes these fancy credit card sized hi tech gizmos that are inlaid with the OPK testing and blah blah blah you get the idea. The concept if it works would allow the instant testing of roughly 20 serious problems this is potentially a revolutionary product for medical care and it would tie in very well with any cost savings analysis by the Gov in the future.

One negative is the CEO was recently on Cramer's show. So those idiots are on board. The CEO is a famous guy, Dr Frost I believe he's the IVAX dude in the old days, he's an old codger who really knows his stuff and is not in this to enrich himself. You can trust this management. One great testament to that is the INCREDIBLE amount of insider buying in the $3.60- $3.90 range. 57 Insider buys! Millions of shares and not a one sold....

At $5.00 you could do worse, at least you know not far behind you the whole company stands. ~stoney

Why: I won't lie to you my watch list of well acting stocks is about as long as the Feds new ideas. So I bought today a name I have owned earlier in the year, patent play- ACTG.

Why: Well I sold a bunch of stuff before the last crappola and the only one of the many stocks that I had some feelings of remorse about was ACTG. It went UP. In that mess that thousand point mess it went up from my sell into the mid $40's. I made decent money on the name but I watch it all the time because of it's innate strength.

If you watch the headlines on this name you will see law suit after law suit settled. They never lose. They had a big one with I want to say Intel that goosed the stk early last year but, company after company settles with ATCG. Then ACTG goes out and secures more patents.

Why: The stk today was in the low $38's a price I know it is very familiar with. Although it has a high PE, it has been at these levels many times: 10 day MA $37; 50 Day $39; 200 Day $35...

Today they have another PR of a settlement this time the payee... IBM.
If you can beat IBM in court what does that say about your patent strength and
ability to litigate?

Why: They report in 2 days! It will carry along this thread if nothing else.
Buy 350 ACTG.

( I know I usually always buy 1,000 shares of everything despite size-- one of my tricks-- ) in this case Greece could burn down any day and for all I know they could have some crazy unexpected charge and miss earnings.... so lets tip toe in here.

Your Mini Portfolio now is

AUXL
ACTG
OPK

You should still have MRGE in there (ET entry price $5.15 now $6.99)

You are watching NUAN which had a crazy day yesterday. Brought notes to market shareholders balked at the idea of buying another company so soon after the recent purchase - 8%, Needham saves with $31 PT! back to even. My mother jumped in-- she loves a discount -- I'm a little more suspect with Apple vendors getting slapped around today... WATCHING CAREFULLY TODAY!

You are now watching REIT PLD.

You are now watching Retailer KSS

You still own unfortunately IPGP! (more on that later) If you don't you will be buying this name before their earnings on Nov 1!

I noticed Collins Stewert on the tape today, nobody is noticing because of Greece & Apple. Their loss is our gain.

Auxilium upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Collins Stewart
Collins Stewart believes risk/reward for Xiaflex in Peyronie's disease is favorable. The firm does not currently model for PD but believes study design changes make success more likely. Price target is $23.

Ok $23 is $6 above us and they have mentioned a design change in a PD trial to make it more favorable. Seasoned Bio investors know that is something you look for.