They highlight a key Binary event as GILD’s FXR ph 2 data would be avaialble late’17/early18.

For Gilead, success is $3-$6/sh upside as NASH is not in numbers.

For Intercept, Joel believes downside IF Gilead has a better SAFETY profile and similar/better efficacy. He also only models 20% share so if Gilead’s drugs FAIL.. there could be upside.The value of ICPT without NASH is ~$55/share.