000
FXUS63 KIND 022041
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
440 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND WHERE SPC
HAS A SLIVER OF THESE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
ONLY INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA BASED ON WETTER
SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE GFS. DID NOT INCREASE
CHANCES ELSEWHERE AS THE COLUMN STILL LOOKS VERY DRY PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL
THINKING THAT GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO BULLISH WITH PRECIP FOR THE
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
ROUGHLY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY MONDAY AND STILL
TECHNICALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. LEFT IN SOME WEAK/SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR POPS DURING THIS TIME. THEN THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
AND MEANDERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...WHICH DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SO WENT
DRY FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BY MID WEEK...SCATTERED TO EVEN LIKELY POPS
(LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY) ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...SO
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MOS BLEND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
THE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS TIME PROGRESSES...THE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. THE GFS
HAS A SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS INFLUENCING THE RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE EURO HOLDS STEADY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN A
WETTER SOLUTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTH...THEN DRYING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION FAVORS THIS TREND.
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S MAY BE
REACHED...RESULTING IN SOME SCT CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. A QUICK MOVING SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS INDIANA
LATE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE COMBO APPEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH...THUS WILL
INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOO
SOON FOR ANY PRECISE TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC EVENT
IS TOO LOW. ANY TSRA THAT DOES FORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR
QUICKLY...AND VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP