Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Why Josh Willingham was built for Target Field

After engaging in a waiting game with corner outfield incumbent
Michael Cuddyer, the Twins appear poised to move on to the next option
in Josh Willingham.

As both Phil
Mackey and Aaron
Gleeman pointed out yesterday, the decision to move from Cuddyer to Willingham
isn’t just based on their performance but also the additional picks that come
with allowing Cuddyer to walk. From an organization-building standpoint,
landing two free draft picks is a wise decision in and of itself. Then, on top
of that, the team is able to sign
Willingham for $3M less overall than the offer to Cuddyer (which may even
be $7M in savings if Cuddyer gets his $30M that has been floated out by several
national writers). It all adds up to the right move by the Twins
decision-makers.

What’s more, despite having similar offensive production
the past two seasons, there is another advantage to signing Willingham if you
consider his style might be better suited for Target Field.

The Twins organization puts a great amount of pride on
getting their hitters to use the entire field. Unfortunately, in Minneapolis
today, that gets you diddley-squat. According to observations made by Delmon
Young in October,

“Target Field changed my
whole field of hitting. I usually tried to use the middle of the field, and if
I pulled, I pulled, and if I went the other way, I went the other way.

At Target Field, when
those balls turn into can-of-corn outs and I was fighting for playing time over
there, I couldn’t afford to have a flyout to deep right field. I had to try to
pull the ball to get a base hit.”

As it turns out, Young
was correct. Most of the home runs hit at Target Field by right-handers were pulled,
a dozen were hit to left-center, five to center and just three went opposite
field. This was a huge drop-off from production at the Metrodome when
right-handers had 20 home runs to center and right field in 2009. If the Twins
were going to get a right-hander with home run power, they would need to
acquire a pull hitter to thrive at Target Field. That’s where Josh Willingham
comes in.

In the simplest terms, Willingham is that dead-pull
hitter the Twins need:

As you can see from his spray chart taken from the past
two seasons, Willingham favors yanking the ball down the line – and this method
has paid dividends for the 32-year-old outfielder. Over the past three seasons
his weighted on-base average has been the seventh-best while his isolated power
numbers (ISO) have been the fourth-highest among qualified hitters.

Highest wOBA when pulling (2009-2011)

Name

PA

ISO

wOBA

Mark Reynolds

462

0.522

0.596

Jose Bautista

536

0.577

0.594

Kevin Youkilis

464

0.424

0.562

Curtis Granderson

657

0.503

0.560

Carlos Gonzalez

424

0.436

0.553

Miguel Cabrera

559

0.433

0.549

Josh Willingham

490

0.461

0.544

Willingham’s pull-power served him well last year in
Oakland where he slugged a robust .523 at the O.co Coliseum (O.co? We’re coming
very close to having something named “Preparation H Arena” as seen in BASEketball, aren’t we?) when all
right-handers only managed to .363 (only eight other stadiums were tougher on
right-handed hitters in baseball last year). By comparison, righties compiled a
.417 slugging percentage at Target Field.

What makes Willingham so exceptionally good at pulling
the ball is his ability to hit the ball out in front:

In addition to making contact out in front, Willingham
draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his
hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90
degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination,
plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.

In theory, this package should play much better within the
home confines as opposed to Michael Cuddyer’s approach of using the entire
field.

Cuddyer, a strong individual in his own right, allows pitches
to get much further into the zone and therefore winds up with a much more even
distribution of hits to all fields. As such, the vast majority of his home runs
also have left the yard in the left-center gap – a more difficult act to do on
a regular basis at Target Field – versus close to the left field foul pole where
Willingham’s home runs land.

This isn’t to say anything that what Cuddyer is doing is
bad, per se; it’s just the way he’s designed. Of course, these are just
examples as he certainly does hit some out in front that travel a long ways but
overall, he thrives on being the type of hitter that can poke an outside pitch
to right or send one back up the middle. For Willingham, that’s basically
unheard of.

While it may have been Cuddyer’s attempt at a polite
kiss-off by not accepting the offer, it could end up doing the team a huge
service by giving them two draft picks, payroll relief and a player better
suited for Target Field in Josh Willingham.

I love this move, but I have serious doubts as to if his power translates to Target Field. Not because his pull power won't translate, but because the Twins seem to stress using the whole field. I can easily see Vavra jacking up his swing, ala Hardy.

If Willingham isn't hitting 25+ homers every year for us, this is a bad deal. He stuck out 150 times last year and his OBP wasn't good his first year in the AL. He's a statute in left, god knows how bad he'll be in right. Best case is he's about a 2.0 rWAR player and worst case is a lot worse.

Twins fans will love Willinghams bat. As a lifelong A's fan, I have seen many post steroid RH hitters come to the coliseum and pretty much die. It's very hard to go out to the opposite field, and a lot like your folks' new beautiful ballpark, it's not exactly easy to leave the yard while pulling the ball either.

Willingham hits the ball with more authority then any RH A's hitter Oakland has seen since Frank Thomas in 06'. I really can't remember a single homerun last season that would have been considered a "cheapy". This isn't saying much, but he had the highest batted ball velocity of any A's player by a decent margain. Also hit the longest HR in Oakland last season. He'll come with his K's, but if your like Oakland fans and worry about every single hitter they bring in, and his ability to hit the ball in your home ballpark, don't worry. If he plays 120+ games you'll easily get 25+ Hr's and an .800+ OPS.

Why are we concerned about getting more home runs for all players? Why can't our home field advantage favour the pitching which our successfull teams are always built around anyway? This year, with a hapless fly ball- friendly pitching staff, Target Fields' configuration is a blessing. Willingham is an ideal component of that advantage. Thanks for the analysis!

I love Cuddyer and I hate to see him go BUT one thing that always bugged me was that when Cuddy got 2 strikes on him he took WAY too many AWFUL swings at balls out of the zone. I've watched every twins game for the past 3 years and his 2-strike plate discipline was BAD to say it mildly. Now I don't know how Willingham is with 2 strikes on him but Cuddyer has set the bar so low that Willingham shouldn't have a problem impressing me in this regard.

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About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."