Where’s Cecil Cooper when you need a 90-win prediction?

Where is Cecil Cooper when you need him? It was about a year ago that Cooper predicted the Astros would win 90 games in 2009. Shortly after that prediction, his contract was extended.

Cooper’s not making any predictions this year, but I’m happy Drayton McLane is reminding us periodically he’s buildling a champion. It’s nice to have new blood like Brad Mills, Tommy Manzella and Pedro Feliz and some young guns battling for rotation spots instead of retreads.

Otherwise, it could be fairly demoralizing preparing for the 2010 season, what with all the sabermatric predictions rolling off the presses these days.

Just when you start to get a little excited about watching Mills, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Manella and J.R. Towles, the sabermetrical prognosticators all but decide the season before the first spring pitch is thrown.

On a side note, were you aware that SABR actually stands for Society for American Baseball Research?

No matter where you turn, the so-called expert computers predict fans will have a long season watching the Astros.

Baseball Prospectus perhaps has the “best” results for Houston, predicting a 76-win season. A closer look at their numbers also shows what many fear: The Astros will struggle to score runs in 2010.

BP predicts only four other NL teams will score fewer runs than the Astros’ 704.

Meanwhile, Accuscore also predicts a 76-win season, good enough for Houston to finish ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

But CHONE provides a different take, predicting the Reds will finish in a second place tie with the Brewers (81-81) while the Astros stumble to their second straight sub-.500 season and a sixth place finish.

Teams have not even played their first spring games and the season is over?

I’m not ready to predict a World Series winner in the Astros, but I don’t see a repeat of the 2007 (73-89) or 2009 (74-88) seasons either.

Right now, if the Astros start the season with their projected roster, I’m comfortable going on record with a no-worse-than-.500 season — or at least 81 wins. A new manager, new feel, younger rotation and a better season for Oswalt and Berkman should be good for at least a seven-game improvement, don’t you think?

Yes, it’s March 1, but how do your early predictions stack up against the “experts”?

Have you seen any predictions — sabermetric or otherwise — showing the Astros with a better than .500 record?

27 Responses

I’m not seeing Lee and Berkman having monster years when there are so many weak links in the lineup – why show them a good pitch when you can buzz through three or four guys and even the pinch-hitters who replace the pitcher’s spot are weak?

I’m hoping that Roy and Wandy and Myers are healthy and in good form, that would be a marked improvement to the starting staff. I also think we have enough candidates for the bullpen that it could become a strength of the team by midseason when all the pieces fit.

We’ll win some games when things click and we look like all cylinders are firing. But I also see us losing a lot of games where we give up 4 or 5 runs and only score 2 or 3.

So assuming a reasonable amount of magic, I guess 82-80 but more importantly a major step towards success in 2012+.

Dylan – BP has a remarkable degree of success with PECOTA, they even predicted a 90 win season before the season began the year that Tampa won 93 and the division. NOONE ELSE thought Tampa was going to be anything other then a losing team.

I’m a homer too, I will watch every single game hoping Roy and Wandy win 15, Bud wins 12-13, Brett stays healthy and things will be different for this Astro team, but reality is what it is. We are severely behind other teams in offensive consistency, we have either unproven or injury prone starters, and our bullpen is full of question marks. Every team has issues, but how many of them have as many?

We will have perhaps the worse starting SS in baseball, and we are in the bottom 5 at 3B, 2B, and C. Our outfield is good, but its not exactly full of HOF’ers. Our batting order is going to be inconsistent and will only score runs when a few hitters are in hot streaks. With the combination of injury and youth you will likely see a lot of starts from Moehler and maybe even Wright, and that is not likely to bode well for our chances either.

Someone will probably write a book about how all those places are better off then they were at the very least, and how last years team managed to play close to .500 until August, but the fact remains the number of teams that walk in with a lot of question marks tends to be the team that ends the season having had more then half of those not panning out and with a losing record.

And Pedro Feliz is nowhere near the same company as Aramis Ramirez offensively. Heck my fantasy baseball magazine sitting by my bedside has him at 32, which means there are teams out there with better SECOND options then our first. There is no doubt he is better then having Blum there (with the added benefit that Blum will be available off the bench instead of a Maysonet type), but even defensively he is a marginal improvement (his ultimate zone rating/150 games is a marginal 5 above average, he was ranked 10th among starting 3B in baseball, not quite the gold glover media types might lead us to believe).

I usually enjoy your writings (as most of the people on this blog do I am sure) but I sense some homerism! OK OK its a Astros fan blog so its allowed.

I wouldn’t put Berkman anywhere near Lee defensively, or Pujols who isn’t that close to Lee either. UZR’s for the three had Lee saving the Cubs 4.7 runs last year (which is alot for 1B), Pujols and Fielder at average, Votto just below average, and Berkman near the bottom of baseball with -5.2.

Unfortunately we cannot guess at how good Manzella is defensively, defensive stats are really not tracked too well in the minors, but scouts call him above average. We can, however, take a good guess at what he will do offensively, which will probably be pretty close to what other 27 year old “prospects” can do with no major league experience. Thats not hit well enough to be major leaguers. Again, I am ready (and hopeful) to be wrong, but going to camp with no other alternative while the Cardinals are signing a guy that hit .310 last year as a starter and is at least capable of holding down SS for a year or two for a mere 1.75 mil is embarrassing IMO. I’m not suggesting not bringing him to camp and giving him a shot, but we are banking on a 27 year old rookie, teams don’t have championship banners because they bank on that.

The pitching has a chance to be above average, heck with Roy and Wandy you have the possibility of having two legitimate aces, not saying it will happen but it could. With Myers you have the possibility of having a legitimate 3 or low end 2 in that spot, and Norris/Paulino at least should be better than what we’ve been running out there for the 4 and 5 spots to start the past two years…

The problem is the offense has very little upside..even if Berkman/Lee have great years, and if Bourn and Pence made good advances…you have no offense at catcher/short/2b…a little power at 3b but horrible on base skills there…the lineup is just going to be too easy to pitch to…

If this team stays together i say between 79 and 82 wins

Here is what i fear though…we get off to a pretty good start and around the break we are a couple of games over .500…the cards and rest of the division isn’t doing well and all of the sudden Drayton tells Wade “Go get a bat, I don’t care what it costs, go get me a bat”…well, the cost in $$ don’t make a rat’s butt to me, but if the cost is a couple of good prospects then we are setting ourselves back…I want this team to win like everyone else, but NO dealing prospects to help what is an average team!

Dan P – I don’t think your optimism is misplaced. Emphatic statements before a first pitch has been thrown?? Especially completely pessimistic emphatic statements are usually made by folks who’s whole focus is to be able to come back and say ‘I told you so’.

No matter. As long as Mills believes and the players believe, amazing things can happen. TB in 2008. MIN in 2009. COL in 2007. Anyone think those teams were headed to the post season on March 1 of those years? Didn’t think so.

I just don’t see what is so rose-colored about thinking that the Astros playing .500 this year is a lot better than a 10% probability. This is only a 7 game improvement over last year. Two areas that I think can account for that difference on their own.

– First – 63 games were started last year by Moehler, Hampton and Ortiz – the best of which had a 5.30 ERA. At least two of their likely replacements – Norris and Myers had significantly better ERA’s than that.

– Second, the manager last year seemed to lose the club house and especially seemed to lose the support of the top players on the roster with his questionable decision making and lineup and substitute decisions. He also ran one of his best bullpen men, Sampson, into the ground and into the minors during the course of the season. He also allowed continuous poor baserunning and poor base coach decisions to go unabated.

I think these two areas can make up the 7 games. I think if this team is worse on offense – it will be made up by being better on defense.

Anyways – at least let me have some optimism before a single ST game is played.

One other point to make – as bad as the Astros were last year – they were 71-73 on September 12th before phoning in the end of the season.

It must be nice to have on those rose-colored homer glasses. This is NOT a team with a lot of upside. This team is not good and we have no superstar rookies coming in the next year to hang our hopes on. If we have absolutely zero injuries and everyone plays up to their highest potential (90th percentile) MAYBE we hit .500. I wouldn’t be my life on it.

Wow, time to throw some ice water of reality on all of this. Let’s see if Mills is competent. Let’s see if indeed Berkman and Oswalt stay healthy and perform. Let’s see what kind of starting pitching the Astros get out of these projects and rejects. Let’s see if the Astros have less than four holes in the everyday lineup. I think 81 wins is optimistic. I think 70-80 wins is reasonable.

I have said before i think Mills is worth 10 games, the rest of the new staff (primarily Arnsberg) are worth 5 games. Thats 89 wins, if Berkman and Oswalt bounce back and the rest of the lineup has reasonable years, perhaps a few more (although that could be argued to already be in the figures for the coaching). So i think the baseline figure should be more like 85 games and the ‘everything goes right’ figure 93 – 94, especially if we are in the race and pick up an impact player at the trade deadline. Hope the family members are continuing to improve.

Interesting list / comparison of the position players in the division. It emphasizes the point that there are a lot of donut holes in everyone’s lineup, especially at 2B, SS and C. It does give me a bit of comfort – though Pujols/Holliday leave any other pairing in the dust. But at least it shows that we are not alone in our struggles. Last year only Milwaukee and St. Louis scored more than the league average (4.43) in runs per game – and StL was just barely above average (4.51). Of course the Cards gave up about 1/2 run less than the league average. But the division is not the AL east – that’s for sure.

Sorry that was so long, but this one isn’t going to be all that short either. Mr. Bill’s post got me thinking – he always does that! The most important thing for an MLB offense isn’t whether or not you have the best player in your division at every position – although that certainly can help a lot – see NYY and PHI! but its more about how your pieces play together, or at least it can be anyway. But to indulge the by position analysis within the NLC: (the order everytime will be CHC, CIN, HOU, MIL, PIT, and STL – alphabetical so unbiased – astericks indicate this is not set in stone)

1B: D Lee, Votto, Berkman, Fielder, Clement*, Pujols – except for Clement (unproven), all are primary run producers for their teams. Pujols has to be considered the best of this excellent class. All can be team MVP’s. The best defensively are Lee, Berkman, and Pujols – and they are very close. Votto is a just behind them.

2B: Fontenot*, Phillips, Matsui, Weeks, Iwamura, Schumaker*/Lopez* – Phillips the only real power source here, but he tends to not produce in the clutch at the same level as say C Utley. Weeks can provide power and speed, but is streaky and injury prone. No one else is a difference maker (no Lopez is not a difference maker). All have important roles. KazMat is a role player for HOU as most of these guys are for their teams. Matsui and Lopez should be get the nod are the best defensively, the rest a small step behind.

SS: Theriot, Cabrera, Manzella, Escobar, Cedeno*/Crosby*, Ryan – Theriot (who was a life time .260 hitter in the minors, near .300 in the MLB) has the best offensive projection at this point in time. All are pretty much defense first type guys. No reason to expect T-Man to be way below this group! Who is the best on defense – Escobar and Manzella have the best reputations, but the only certain thing is that Cabrera and who ever starts for PIT will be the worst.

3B: Ramirez, Rolen, Feliz, McGehee, LaRoche, Freese* – Ramirez has the best offense and is a major contributor to the Cubs run production. Rolen has historically been above average on offense – but has struggled with injuries (as has Ramirez). Feliz could be in the middle of this group for offense. Best defensively? Feliz and Rolen appear to be the best – Ramirez right behind. McGehee hasn’t played enough to get a great read, but he’s more about offense than defense (FYI – MIL has one pitcher that lives above 92 mph!).

C: Soto, Hernandez, Towles, Zaun, Doumit, Molina – this one is very interesting in that only Doumit is consistent offensively. Molina is average to slightly above but was more clutch in 2009 than any time in his history. Hernandez did not live up to expectations in CIN. If you average Soto’s two seasons – his results were average at best (2008 was excellent though). Towles has a chance to be near the top of this group.

LF: Soriano, Gomes, C Lee, Braun, Milledge, Holliday – between Lee, Braun, and Holliday, who would you say is better offensively? Pretty close race – they are all critical to their teams success. Soriano can play in that class, just never has in Chicago (interesting). Gomes and Milledge have “up-side”. Lee can be the class of this field, but its likely Holliday. On defense, except for Milledge (well him too) they can all be liabilities – Holliday tends to be great until a really critical moment. Milledge should be the best, just not always as “sitautionally aware” as he should be.

CF: Byrd, Stubbs, Bourn, Gomez, McCutchen, Rasmus – interesting to interpret this group as well. Byrd and Stubbs have the most power, but Bourn was more clutch in 2009 than anyone else on here. Contribution is different, but Bourn’s value isn’t below the rest of this group. Bourn is the best defensively, but McCutchen and Gomez are right there as well.

RF: Fukudome, Bruce, Pence, Hart, Jones, Ludwick – the best offensively is a pick ’em and is very dependent on the season or week, that the individuals are having. Ludwick gets my nod for power, but having seen all of them play – Jones could end up being the best all around from an offensive standpoint. Bruce’s ceiling is very high, but he, like the rest of the group, has not shown himself to be the next Vlad G (great all around RF in his prime). No reason HP can be at the top of this list either – but Fukudome will have the best OBP. Defensively – close except for Ludwick and Bruce would are not quite as good and Jones isn’t a natural OF – so I expect him to be be below avg until he gets more experience.

Ok – I know that was VERY long, but having done it – is the situation as dire as many think? Of course there are no certainties – but then again, there aren’t any for anyone else either – Pujols could strain an oblique and miss four weeks, how would STL without him?

Lance was the 4th best 1B last year behind Pujols, Fielder and Lee, and Votto was on his coat tails. I think he will be better then Lee this year but I also suspect a break out year from Votto, right now I would put Lance 4th in the division.

I don’t think rating by the position though is going to do Lance justice, he maybe the 4th best offensive 1B this year and simply be the 4th best hitter also, thats how deep this division is at 1B.

I think after coming out of the gate good, the Astros stumble in May, then pick it back up in June for the rest of the season.

What does this mean?

Well, it’s the runs thing. Carlos will be Carlos (for about the second time in history, I agree with Richard Justice). Lance will be the good Lance we love a lot. So look for .300 averages, 30 HRs and 110 RBIs apiece. Pence will continue his improvement, as will Bourne. Expect Pence to bat about .285/27/90, and Bourne’s OBP will inch up past .360 as he cuts down his Ks.

After Matsui sustains another injury you can’t mention in polite company, we’ll have Keppinger at 2B, giving us an OBP in the two-hole of .325.

Feliz will take advantage of the short porch in left to hit 19 HRs and drive in 88 runs.

And, finally, Castro and Manzella won’t suck. I know, conventional wisdom and all the stat prognosticators out there say otherwise, but I’m guessing no one thought Jeff Bagwell would play well as a rookie. And, no, Manzella and Castro will not be like rookie Baggy at the plate, but they will average between them .250/10/50, with Castro driving in more than 60 runs.

So our lineup will be

Bourne, .360 OBP, 65 SB, only 80 Ks in 600 ABs

Keppinger, .325 OBP, 55 runs scored in 2/3 of season

Berkman, .300, 31 HRs, 111 RBIs

Lee, .305, 33 HRs, 115 RBIs

Pence, .285, 27 HRs, 90 RBIs

Feliz, .260, 19 HRs, 88 RBIs

Castro, .252, 12 HRs, 62 RBIs

Manzella, .248, 4 HRs, 44 RBIs

So, if our offense doesn’t suck — I mean, it’s not great, but it doesn’t suck — and our defense is stellar other than the black hole in left, then our biggest concern is our pitching.

Bounce back by Roy. Wandy has 2009 all over again, but manages more wins because the pen doesn’t lose it for him as often (which is a big part of Roy’s bounce back, too). And Myers and Norris are solid. That leaves Paulino and Mohler the “sixth man” to worry about.

With two ace-quality starters, solid guys in Myers and, to a lesser extent as an innings eater, but still a lot of quality, Norris, and one guy who finishes below .500, we’re in great shape.

Roy wins 17 games.

Wandy wins 16 games.

Myers wins 12 games (no worries about a dead arm here).

Norris wins 12 games (but he sits three weeks at some point with nagging injuries).

Paulino wins 8 games, but loses 11.

Mohler wins 3 games a starter, four more in relief.

That amounts to 68 wins from starters.

We just need 22 more in relief, and we already have four from Mohler. Oh, and we haven’t even talked about Sampson yet.

Now, are any of the numbers I’ve put out there unreasonable? Look at the past performances. Wandy can win 16 games. Roy can win 17. Myers can win 12.

Is there a lot if, “OK, things need to go right, but …” going on here? Sure.

But you think Cardinals fans aren’t doing the same thing? Prince Albert has never missed more than 19 games in a season. I don’t wish him an injury, but, let’s face it, the odds are he’s going to pull a muscle or get hit on the hand with a fastball some day.

Adam Wainwright is good only every other year, so this year expect down numbers from him. Chris Carpenter better hope he holds together. And their Nos. 3 and 4 starts are really no better than ours. Lohse was only 6-10 last year, though he’s due a slight bounce-back. And Penny is probably about a .500 pitcher who eats around 175 innings in a good year.

So, OK, here’s my prediction.

The Central is weak, and I think the Cardinals are due to disappoint.

Houston 91-71

Chicago 89-73

St. Louis 81-81

Cincinnati 80-82

Milwaukee 72-90

Pittsburgh 69-93

And if I’m wrong, well, its only March 1. So sue me for having optimism.

[Brian, I’m hedging my bets a little more than you by saying .500 is the worst case scenario. But I’m reasonably optimistic that Mills is going to right the ship and set the tone early on that Drayton will open up the purse strings in June and get whatever is needed to make one of those runs. I’ll walk the plank with you friend! CB]

Didn’t get into the fray for the weekend – too busy (smoked a wild turkey – love the way that sounds – it was interesting considering that the wild birds have way less fat than the ‘crop’ versions. Was also my first time with a bird that big – results were acceptable but not outstanding).

How many wins – again, too early for me to put out a number, but I think the “systems” and the pundents that are already throwing out predictions are strangely myopic in their views.

Take the NLW (before we get to the Central) – almost everyone is saying its LAD and COL as #1 and #1A (wild card?). Both of these teams have excellent offenses and COL has above average defense. LAD has very little proven pitching and COL will be depending on starting pitchers that look like they have turned the corner, but then again Carmona for CLE going into last season looked like he’d turned the corner too. ARZ on the other hand has a potentially disfunctional offense (sound familure?) but potentially the best pitching in the division – based on everything you know about baseball, who should finish at the top? And this isn’t even considering that if SF is even a little better offensively, with their pitching, they can’t be ignored.

In the Central, depending on Votto’s ability to play at a high level for 150+ games, the Cubs, Brewers, and possibly the Reds have the most potent line ups (on paper of course since they haven’t even started playing ST games). For CHC – same old issue, can everyone stay healthy and build on each others abilities? For MIL, the runs will come – the issue will be can they score more than the give up? For CIN – less run production than MIL, but their pitching should also be better. None of those teams are getting the nod for the NLC though – that’s STL, who’s offense looks remarkable similar to HOU’s: two stud run producers (one of which hits into a lot of double plays), one very good third guy and the rest are league average or total question marks. With Wainwright and Carpenter, its easy to say they have the best 1-2 punch in the NLC, but they have zero depth at starting pitcher – and are counting on Lohse and Penny to carry as much of the load as their ace’s. Outfield defense is a deficiency for STL – I would probably put them number 5 in the division right now, so if Penny gets away from being a ground ball pitcher???

I kind of like the fact that we are hearing Astros players say that they believe in the team as its set up but at the same time we are not hearing 90 win predictions from them or Mills.

What I think? Kaz is going to have his best season as an Astro – not saying it will be a great season. T-Man will hit better than expected. Feliz will be a slight improvement at 3B from an offensive standpoint versus ’09, but he isn’t going to lead the team in performance with RISP nor is he going to provide traditional power for a 3B. Towles and Q (or Castro) will be significantly better at producing runs than last season’s catching situation. Bourn, Pence, Berkman, and Lee will be the determining factors as expected. But, as with every team, total runs for the season isn’t really all that important – more runs than the opponent on any given day is – which means, the most important thing is pitching. Think we’ve heard that before.

Come July 1, I think the NL is going to have a lot of surprise teams vying for the post season if you’re basing your picks on the “systems” or pundents – the exception being PHI, they’ll be at the top of the NLE if they stay healthy.

An interesting thought – when MIL committed playing time to A Escobar in 2009, there were question marks (although Hardy’s productivity had slipped dramatically) but overall, it was met by the pundents as the right move. Now with HOU doing the same thing with Manzella – essentially because they did not seek to procure an alternative via the FA market – everyone is saying this is a potentially huge problem for the offense. Is it because no one expects him to match Miggy’s production? Interesting, since no one expected Escobar to match Hardy’s production (prior to the slip). Give the guy a chance folks.

Just like in the financial circles – past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In other words all of the computer models in the world are as good as the data fed into it and whatever adjustments are made on that information by the programmers. Predictions made before the first ST game cannot take into account the following:

– Who actually makes the team

– Who starts and importantly – what is the regular lineup.

– Who goes down with major injuries between now and early in the season. In other words if I tell you that Carpenter and Zambrano get hurt and start only 10 games this season – what do you think of our chances. What if I say the same thing about Roy O or Wandy?

– What is the affect of a manager change throughout the season?

– Etc.

I’m doubting many computers were predicting that Wandy would be the ace last year or that Bourn would have such an improved year or that both Roy and Lance would face injury and reduced stats.

My personal view on the Astros is that .500 is a reasonable expectation. Roy, Wandy, Myers, Norris and Paulino(or whoever) just looks to give us a solid upgrade over Roy, Wandy, Moehler, Hampton and Ortiz. Yes – we have potentially less fire power – especially at SS – but there is at least potential for more offense at C (Castro) and 3B – and the last time I looked – preventing runs (Manzella and Feliz on the left side) can be as important as creating them. The closer spot is a question mark – but there is depth in the bullpen and some young live arms.

If Mills helps us win 5 games by decision making and just a more upbeat clubhouse and a few more just by not wearing relievers into the ground (e.g. Brocail and Sampson) – I don’t know why we can’t choose .500 as our baseline.

[DanP, on many points you are correct. However, these projections do take into account the players and projected starters, which, at this point, are largely set for the Astros. You can’t factor in intangibles like Mills, though. CB]

Chip: I do not want to be a “Cecil Cooper” kind of guy, therefore I will not predict 90 victories, I will only predict 89!

The reason: Last year we lost a lot of one-run games, but this season we have better pitchers.

If you are giving away prizes for best predictions, please keep mine on the table because I am ready for them. How about a trip to see the Astros in their second world series? Well, that would be too much to dream for, just give me a free ticket to a summer ball game.

We will never know the full effect of Cecil on the team last year. Something folks haven’t considered is that stress can create injuries and strains. If the clubhouse atmosphere was degraded because of Coop, could that have had an impact on Roy’s back and other injuries to guys like Berkman? How about the mental game? Could that have been a factor?

I know some folks will blast me for this line of reasoning, but I truly believe we had a LOT of losses either directly or indirectly related to our manager. I like Cecil, he is a shoe in for the HOF, but he was horrible as a manager.

Some other bright spots: Our rotation, while not a dominating group of shutdown artists, is much improved. We have a lot of speed everywhere but LF, where the bat makes up for the treads.

There are a lot of ifs involved, but it seems that every year, teams that were picked to do nothing make it happen. I believe this team is going to surprise a lot of folks and win enough games to be in the hunt in late September and end with a winning season.

Chip, it is no secret that I resolved last September to look right past the 2010 and 2011 seasons as if they were not there. My focus in 2010 will be almost exclusively on the Minor Leaguers, particularly at Lexington and Corpus. I hope that shifts to Round Rock in 2011.

Meanwhile, the reason the predictions are 100% right to be so low for the Astros in 2010 is that the players on our roster are nowhere close to the best in our division at any position. In fact, at only one position [first base] do we field a player who is in the top 3 in our division.

And don’t even get me started about pitching. We don’t have a pitching staff anymore — we have a prayer list.

Chip, haven’t seen any good predictions, and I generally stick my nose in as many sites as I can find.

I agree, the Astros will definitely struggle to score runs. They have a leadoff hitter who is OK at getting on base, a 2 batter who will likely have a .320ish OBP, an unproven run producer likely batting 5th, a 6 hitter that should be batting 7-8, and probably the worse 7-8 hitters in the league.

Even if Lee and Berkman have great years and Pence becomes the real deal they only bat 3 times through the order, we still have to deal with Matsui, Feliz, Manzella and the catcher (even if its Castro he won’t be awesome in year one).

Justice the wise just wrote an article about how we should get off Carlos Lee. I accept the point that we already knew he wasn’t a speedster, that he wasn’t going to win gold gloves, and running out grounders would be an issue, but given all those detriments, any one of which can cost you a game at anytime (as not running out a grounder might have last year), then I expect a guy making almost 20 mil to hit and hit only to be better then 26HR-102RBI.

Matter of fact, at that price tag I don’t think its too much to ask for MVP type numbers. If your a hitter, but a detriment in almost anything else you do, and you are among the highest paid players in the league, then you better be doing a .320/40HR/130RBI type clip IMO.