5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell2 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Intermediate/Advanced swell1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell

New Zealand Swell Peaks in CA Calm Pattern Forecast for Southern Hemi

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant:Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better. Advanced:Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.Intermediate/Utility Class:Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high. Impulse/Windswell:Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEWCurrent Conditions
On Tuesday (7/15) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the waist to maybe chest high range and relatively clean but warbled from southerly winds. Down in Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing waves in the waist to chest high range with bigger sets at top breaks and clean early, turning textured later. In Southern California up north windswell was producing waves occasionally thigh high with heavily textured conditions. Down south southern hemi swell was producing waves in the waist high range with maybe a few bigger sets and nearly chopped later. It was cleaner down into Orange County and head high on the sets. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean early. The South Shore was still getting New Zealand swell with waves chest high with sets 2 ft overhead at top spots and clean and well lined up. Trade wind generated east windswell was producing waves at waist to chest high and chopped at exposed breaks on the East Shore.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
Previous projections for the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri to redevelop in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Thurs (7/17) have not occurred. Otherwise no swell producing fetch is occurring or forecast for the North Pacific other than local windswell and limited to North and Central CA and only on Fri (7/18), then fading out and not to return till Fri (7/25). Another tropical system is building east of the Northern Philippines targeting Taiwan. In the southern hemisphere swell from a small and weak gale that developed southeast of New Zealand late on Sun (7/6) pushing hard northeast on Mon-Tues (7/8) with 30 ft seas aimed northeast is still hitting Hawaii and peaking along the US West Coast. Beyond a small gale is projected developing east of New Zealand on Tues-Wed (7/23) with 28 ft seas aimed due north, offering perhaps another small pulse of swell for Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECASTCurrent marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

NorthPacific

Overview Surface Analysis - On Thursday (7/17) trades were 15-20 kts over a small area due northeast of the Hawaiian Islands offering limited support for generation of easterly windswell along east facing shores there. Modest high pressure at 1028 mbs was in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska but pulled away from the US West Coast some with only a very limited pressure gradient in play along the Oregon and extreme North CA coast generating 15-20 kt north winds over a small area resulting in only small short period north windswell radiating south into exposed breaks in Central CA.

Over the next 72 hours the pressure gradient is to build slightly along Oregon and North CA producing a very small area of 20-25 kt north winds later Friday into early Sat (7/19) then gone by Sunday (7/20) resulting in only more small and weak north short period windswell at exposed break in North and Central CA through Saturday. West of there two high pressure systems are to be in control of the North Pacific by Sun (7/20), one just west of the dateline and the other in the Central Gulf of Alaska. No swell producing fetch is forecast.

Easterly trades relative to Hawaii to fade Friday then rebuild Sat (7/19) just east-southeast of the Big Island near 20 kts in association with tropical depression 1C then fading to 15-20 kts and moving over the Islands Monday and holding into Wednesday (7/23) offering good opportunity for short period easterly windswell along exposed easterly shores. This fetch is really a gradient between the remnants of the Tropical Depression and high pressure to the north.

TropicsTropical Depression 1C was positioned 1200 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Islands at 18Z on Thurs (7/19) with winds 30 kts and tracking northwest. It is to build to maybe 40 kts on Friday, then fade to depression status Sat-Sun approaching 250 nmiles east of the Big Island mid-Sunday. Likely only windswell to result.

Tropical Storm Matmo was positioned 525 nmiles east of the Central Philippines on Thurs (7/17) tracking north with winds 35 kts. a slow turn to the northwest is expected with winds building to 95 kts through Tues (7/22) positioned 250 nmiles east of Taiwan. Current model data suggests no recurvature to the northeast with the storm moving inland near Taiwan.

Perhaps yet another tropical system to develop well southwest of Hawaii on Wed (7/23).

California Nearshore Forecast On Thursday AM (7/17) high pressure was positioned in the Eastern Gulf producing a weak pressure gradient and north winds at 15-20 kts over a small area off Cape Mendocino with a eddy flow in control of almost the entire CA coast. The gradient and north winds are to fade by late Saturday but with the eddy flow holding nearshore, and continuing in some fashion into Wed (7/23). By the evening on Wed high pressure and north winds to return locally to the entire state, but with the core moving up to Cape Mendocino by Friday (7/25) with and eddy flow presumably returning then.

SouthPacific

OverviewJetstream - On Thursday (7/17) the southern branch of the jet remained in a zonal configuration running more or less flat west to east and displaced south some on the 65S latitude line in the west rising slightly to 60S in the far east with winds generally 100 kts. No real troughs were indicated anywhere across the South Pacific with no support for gale development suggested. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to hold this same general position but with a pocket of wind energy tracking from west to east at 120 kts forming a weak trough and offering the slightest hope for low pressure development mainly east of the California swell window targeting Chile on Sat (7/19). Beyond a weak flat zonal flow to redevelop with winds 100 kts or less. No troughs forecast. Beyond 72 hours a weak upper low is to develop in the far Southwest Pacific down at 68S pushing the jet northward forming a decent trough on Fri (7/25) perhaps offering limited support for gale development. At least it's something to monitor.

Surface Analysis - On Thursday (7/17) swell from a small gale that developed east of New Zealand is in the water fading in Hawaii and peaking in California (see New Zealand Gale below). Otherwise a generic fetch of 30-35 kt west winds was situated over the far Southeast Pacific mainly east of the California swell window targeting Chile with seas 24-26 ft at high pressure at 56S 115W. 14 sec period swell likely for Southern Chile to result. Otherwise no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Also a weak gale is to develop in the Tasman Sea on Thurs PM (7/17) with 35 kt south winds developing just along the East Australia Coast getting better coverage Fri (7/18) over the Central Tasman Sea at 30-35 kts with 18-22 ft seas persisting into Sat (7/19) near 33S 154E targeting Fiji. Maybe some swell to result there.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Sun PM (7/6) with southwest winds building from 45 kts over a small area and seas to 28 ft at 59S 175E. A decent fetch of 40 kt south-southwest winds built Mon AM (7/7) pushing well to the northeast with seas building to 26 ft at 54S 175W. In the evening fetch was holding at 40 kts still aimed north-northeast with seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 46S 170W (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 NCal and barely shadowed, 188 degrees Hawaii). By Tues AM (7/8) south winds were fading from 35 kts with 28 ft seas fading over a tiny area at 39S 162W. This system dissipated after that. A decent pulse of swell to result for Tahiti with small energy for Hawaii and smaller and shadowed energy for California.

LONG-TERM FORECASTMarine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

NorthPacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to rebuild to the east on Thurs (7/24) relative to Northern CA generating the typical pressure gradient over North CA with winds building to 25 kts with windswell on the upswing some. The gradient is to build in coverage some into Friday (7/25) but with no clear signs of an eddy in play over Central CA.

Relative to Hawaii, high pressure north of the state is to continue providing a steady easterly flow east and over the Islands at 15-20 kts Tues-Wed (7/22) with decent coverage generating better easterly windswell along east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands during that window. But that fetch is to collapse on Thursday.

MJO/ENSO Update Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

As of Thursday (7/17) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was down to 5.48. The 30 day average was up some to -6.74 and the 90 day average was up slightly at 1.46. The near term trend based on the 30 day average was indicative of a weak Active Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of a neutral Phase of the MJO. The recent falling SOI numbers are a result of low pressure previous near Tahiti. But higher pressure and more stable air is currently in control there through Tues (7/22). after that a better pattern is forecast. The SOI tends to be a lagging indicator running a week behind surface level weather trends.

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated modest west anomalies over the Maritime Continent reaching to 162E turning to modest easterly anomalies east of there over the dateline and on to a point south of Hawaii. Neutral anomalies developed there and continued to the Galapagos and Ecuador. A week from now (7/25) neutral anomalies are forecast over the entire equatorial Maritime Continent extending east to the dateline and holding to a point south of Hawaii. Weak east anomalies are projected near the Galapagos. The GFS model indicates trades are over the Eastern Kelvin Wave Generation Area and are to hold to Sat (7/19) then start decaying east of there, completely gone by Mon (7/21) over the entire Kelvin Wave Gen Area. This is to be the second easterly wind event this year and rather minor at that assuming the models are correct. Not bad considering we're 190 days into the year. Previously an Easterly Wind event occurred in the West Pacific 6/13-6/19 building to the moderate plus category but did not appear to have turned off the warm water flow to the east (more below), though it was close. The TOA array indicated westerly anomalies developed 6/25 west of the dateline (at the surface - the ground truth) and held through 7/6 in the moderate range, then turned neutral on 7/7 but were trending light westerly on 7/11 through today (7/17). So things are not as bad as they appear, and actually pretty good. If one was counting on a Super El Nino, this is not good. But compared to La Nina, where enhanced trades (20+ kts) would be blowing non-stop, we're in great shape.

Previously a series of WWBs occurred 1/8-4/20 creating a large Kelvin Wave that is now impacting Ecuador, the Galapagos and Peru. And weak westerly anomalies continued through the month of May. This was very similar situation that led up to the big El Nino's of '82/32 and '97/98. But in those instances the WWBs and Kelvin Wave generation progressed non-stop through the Summer and Fall months.

An article presenting a Comparison between the genesis of the 1997 El Nino and this 2014 WWB event has been posted here.A second analysis from 5/28 is posted here.

The longer range Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) models (dynamic and statistical) run on 7/16 are in sync. They both suggest a weak Active MJO signal is in effect in the West Pacific reaching to the dateline. 5 days out it is to nearly hold then start fading 8 days out and gone 12-15 day out. In short, a neutral pattern biased slightly active. The ultra long range upper level model indicates a neutral Phase currently over the Pacific and tracking slowly east through 8/6. A robust Inactive Phase currently in the Indian Ocean is to start making progress into the extreme West Pacific on 8/9 but weakening significantly making it east of the dateline and into the East Pacific on 8/26. A very weak MJO pattern biased Active is what one would expect if an El Nino were to develop. If a neutral pattern actually prevails in July (as it looks like it will), it provides hope that the warming water in the equatorial East Pacific is starting to have some impact on the atmosphere above. As said before, we're at the point where weak westerly anomalies should be standard in the West Pacific if a moderate El Nino where developing, attributable to warming waters temps over the width of the equatorial Pacific. Based on active sensors from the TOA wind data from the Kelvin Wave generation area, which we consider to be the best objective evidence, that appears to be the case. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. As of the most recent low res imagery (7/17), a warm water regime remains in control from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and drifting west from there with warm anomalies extending on a point south of Hawaii, but not longer to the dateline. And at that, most of it is confined east of 120W (in the Nino 1 & 2 regions) at +1.0-1.5 deg above normal. Temps are near normal south of Hawaii ito the dateline, then rebuilding to +0.5 degs C over the dateline, likely the start of a new Kelvin Wave. Clearly pockets of cooler waters are starting to develop on the equator south of Hawaii extending to almost to the dateline. Hi-res SST data depicts the extent of +2.25-4.0 deg anomalies embedded in the Galapagos triangle stable, and if anything rebuilding some. Temps in the +2.5-4.0 range have built some with one pocket to +4.0 degs. The patch of cooler anomalies at -0.5 that were building off the entire coast of Peru has dissipated and warmer water is back in control. This is good news. The previous thought that a steady decline in temps in the Nino -1 & 2 regions might have been premature. There's always some risk in mis-analyzing data when using the micro-view. Still, we consider it an outlier. We still believe the bulk of the massive Kelvin Wave generated by Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April has erupted at the surface and is dispersing, but might have better staying power than previously thought. And perhaps some form of small short lived cool upwelling event cause the previous decline. Those warmed waters are advecting west, tracking barely into the Nino 3.4 region, but not getting any reinforcements and are having only a slightly impact on the overall water temps in the equatorial Pacific. This is not unexpected. This remains the tail of the proverbial dog, while Westerly Wind Bursts are the nose. The issue remains getting more warm water into the pipe to eventually erupt near the Galapagos.

Elsewhere, the entire North Pacific Ocean is full of warmer than normal water as is the West Pacific (north and south). Signs of high pressure induced upwelling streaming southwest off California has become a little more pronounced, but not bad, especially given the time of year. And this is expected if El Nino was in play. This is significant in that is suggests high pressure induced north winds are less than normal off California for this time of year. And the only cool water present is streaming off Southern Chile pushing west reaching up to the equator just south of Hawaii, but getting shunted south by the warm water on the equator east of there. Overall the total amount of warmer than normal water in the North Pacific remains impressive.

Subsurface Waters Temps on the equator are in decline. Residual warm subsurface water from the previous Kelvin Wave are dropping. They are currently are +3.0 deg C above normal, and fading. The core is 50 meters down at 110W. Temps previously were up to +6 degs C above normal on 6/21. As best as can be identified the residuals of the Kelvin Wave covers a smaller area now, starting at 150W building into Ecuador with the core between 120W and 100W. Satellite data as of 7/12 depicts no elevated surface water heights in the Galapagos region. This is a significant downgrade in the past 14 days indicating the Kelvin Wave has dissipated. Subsurface models as of 7/14 depict the flow from the West Pacific to the east was still open, but with no significant warm water in it and the Kelvin Wave itself in steep decline. But, the pipe was not closed. A small pocket of +0.5-1.0 anomalies are theoretically in place under the dateline and building (though the nearest sensors are at 165E - so it's modeled data), suggestive of a new Kelvin Wave trying to take shape. But even if it is real, at this point in time it's a bare minimal Kelvin Wave and would not even warm waters above what they already are in the Galapagos region. A far stronger Kelvin wave is required. And even at that it would take 2-3 months before it would arrive at the Galapagos (~Sept 30).

The Pacific Equatorial Surface Counter-Current (from 2N to 2S from the Philippines to the Galapagos) as of 7/12 continued tracking actually and anomalously east to west from the Galapagos to the dateline (through the heart of the Nino 3.4 region), the exact opposite direction it should be to build warm waters in the East Pacific. But it appears the actual current and anomalies are tracking less strong and over a smaller area east to west than data from 7/2, and 7/7 and late June. This is somewhat encouraging news. This west moving current started 6/17. In the far West Pacific the current continues flowing west to east, holding since 7/2, suggestive of a new Kelvin Wave taking shape, but flowing less strong than a week ago. The assumption is the change in direction in the current was attributable to development of easterly winds in the same area in mid-June, that have not been reversed due to lack of any real Westerly Wind Burst.

Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 7/17 have stabilized, suggesting water temps building to +1.0 deg C by early Oct peaking at + 1.2 deg C (down from the +1.55 deg C predicted in early July and +1.75 in May) holding into Jan 2015, then fading. Interestingly this model actually depicts warm waters dissipating in the Nino1+2 regions in August then redeveloping in the Nino 3.4 regions in Sept and gaining momentum and areal coverage while building back into Nino1.2 into Jan 2015 link.

Analysis: As of right now hopes for a strong El Nino in the Fall/Winter of 2014-2015 are in rapid decline. The massive Kelvin Wave that was generated by successive Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April has erupted in the Galapagos region and is now dispersing. The WWB ended on 5/1 with all warm water from it arriving 3 months later over the Galapagos, or by 8/1 (if not sooner) with neutral water temps taking over the Galapagos-Ecuador-Peru triangle at that time forward unless something develops to reinforce it. All evidence clearly suggest the warm pool is in rapid decline exactly as projected. A new, very weak WWB appears to be developing in the West Pacific (starting 6/28). But even if it were to continue, it would not reach the Galapagos till 9/28. So there's a 8 week 'hole' with no significant warm water to resupply the Ecuador triangle between 8/1 and 9/28. This will likely cause water temps to decease in the Nino1+2 regions, likely to near neutral. That means that even if another weak Kelvin Wave were to arrive in the Galapagos, it will have to warm water temps from dead neutral, rather than acting as reinforcements to already warmed waters. And if no additional Westerly Wind Bursts occur, warm water in all Nino region will dissipate completely. If one is to believe the models, there's ample evidence to suggest the pattern of suppressed trades in the far West Pacific is also decaying, with a more normal trades trying to take root. This is exactly what occurred during the 2012 False-Start El Nino.

Of course the other option is that the June easterly wind burst was the start of the 'upwelling' Phase of the Kelvin Wave. It's normal after a downwelling Kevin Wave impacts the Ecuador coast, that some period of upwelling (cooling) occurs. And for that to be true, the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle would be facilitated by a lack of westerly winds in the West Pacific (as is currently occurring). The long range (2 week) experimental hi-res GFS model continues to suggests an almost total collapse of trades on the equator in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area starting Sun (7/20), and building eastward to a point south of Hawaii and holding through at least 7/29. And it is also typical for trades to start falling into decline in the later half of summer. Many an El Nino has not developed till the Fall. And only a few (namely the '97 Super El Nino) developed and survived strong through the summer and over the span of an entire year. A more 'normal' development life cycle would favor the alternating 'downwelling/upwelling' Kelvin Wave cycle. Perhaps we've put too much focus on the '97 El Nino lifecycle model (attributed to the impressive WWB/Kelvin Wave that started this years event off, making it easy to think this years event would be a semi-duplicate of the '97 event), when instead we should have defaulted to considering a more normal lifecycle approach.

And of yet more interest, the CFSv2 model depicts exactly this scenario playing out, with water temps in Nino1.2 fading in August then redeveloping in September, exactly filling the 'hole' scenario described above. If a sudden redevelopment of westerly winds occurred in late July, and a new Kelvin Wave were to develop starting early August, the 'upwelling Kelvin Wave' theory would have credence towards explaining the current pause in WWB activity.

But without another WWB building on the dateline in late July/August to set up another downwelling Kelvin Wave event, then the developing El Nino pattern would dissipate. Monitoring surface wind anomalies in the West Pacific remains critical to determining the future of this years potential El Nino pattern. And believing model projections weeks if not months in advance is a proven risky proposition. Therefore, we will continue to believe the above explanation is more of a last grasp than a certainty.

And finally, there's the 'feedback loop' consideration. We're currently waiting for a feedback loop to develop, reinforcing the warm water flow and buildup of warm water off Central America into the Fall. There are signs of that trying to happen now, mainly in the form of sporadic but not steadily negative SOI numbers, and tropical low pressure systems recurving northeast off Japan and significantly reduced high pressure induced north winds along the CA coast resulting in warming waters locally. The big arguments against a feedback loop being in place are the easterly wind event of the week of 6/17, the development of a west moving Pacific Counter Current, a dissipating Kelvin Wave and the degradation of peak water temps in the Ecuador triangle, and continued hints of trades building in the West Pacific. All these could be attributable to the macro level influence of the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle. Though the change in the counter current remains a bit beyond even that explanation. Or just as easily it could be attributable to the fact that the East Pacific warm pool has NOT been in place long enough to develop a coupling with the atmosphere above it, so we end up with a bunch of mixed signals. Only once the ocean and atmosphere are coupled on a global level (that is the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino can result. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. From a skeptics perspective, that's another 3 weeks before anything is guaranteed, at exactly the same time the warm pool is projected to be dispersed. But if we're just in the 'Upwelling Phase' of the Kelvin Wave Cycle, and more west anomalies and a new Kelvin Wave are to be generated in the West Pacific, then all will remain on-track. The next 3 weeks are critical.

Speculating some: What if it does falter completely, like the 2012 False Start El Nino?. What does this say about the atmosphere, especially considering the voracity of the Jan-March WWBs? Two false starts in a 2 year time span is not unheard of, but not common, especially considering the size of this years failure (if it were to fail). Perhaps the decadal bias towards La Nina is stronger than we suspected, leading credence to the theory of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Or better yet, maybe we'll just muddle along for the next 2+ years in a weak warm pattern, not quite tripping into El Nino territory, but not falling back into La Nina either, slowly feeding the jetstream all along. The environment is not binary organism, being either one way or the other at any point in time. Sometimes it progresses at it's own rate and defies categorization, often to our benefit. We'll just have to wait and see.

Overall the immediate outlook remains unchanged, but potentially trending towards something that would be considered warm by Aug-Sept 2014. At a minimum the ocean is well past recharge mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures on the rise. Regardless of the WWBs etc, we are still in a neutral ENSO atmospheric pattern at this time with neither any form of El Nino or La Nina present or imminent. But given all current signs, atmospheric transition appears to be underway, and hopefully intensifying into Fall. There remains 1 month ahead where any number of hazards could derail this event. But this is a better place than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. And it seems apparent we've recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. In a normal situation one would expect there to be at least one or two years of neutral temperatures ultimately converging in a stronger warmer pattern and possible El Nino 2-3 years out (2015 or 2016). Historically, this is the 'normal' pattern (a few years of false starts post La Nina before a legit El Nino forms). We've turned the corner, but we'll remain cautious and not say to much yet, especially in light of what appears to be a decadal bias towards a cooler regime (since 1998).

Beyond 72 hours a broad but disorganized low is to develop southeast of New Zealand on Mon-Tues (7/23) with a small core of 40-45 kt south winds building Tues AM (7/22) and lifting north in the evening with seas building to near 30 ft at 47S 170W. Fetch to be fading Wed AM (7/23) with seas fading from 28 ft at 42S 167W. Something to monitor.

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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

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