It shows how the surface temperature for the southern hemisphere is well into the cooler-than-normal territory, now close to a full degree Kelvin cooler than April’s peak. The black line depicts the global temperature, which shows that it is cooling and getting close to the 1981-2010 climatological mean. Joe tweets:

June temps backing off quickly on NCEP CFSR, now down to 4th warmest. S hem really tanking.”

As the La Niña approaches, global temperatures will almost surely dip below normal. Trace gas CO2 obviously is unable to trap the heat and keep the surface temperatures elevated. Rather the surface temperatures are driven (over the short term) by ocean oscillations – over the past year primarily by the ENSO.

What can we expect for the future?

If the models are anything to go by, more cooling! For example JAMSTEC projects a 2-year protected period of below normal temperatures in the major El Niño 3.4 region.

One model even projects a massively cold Event, which no one in their right mind could ever hope happens. Keep in mind that projections this far out are fraught with speculation and adventurous guesswork.

Also the newest NCEP CFSv2 forecast sees a ruddy La Niña in the pipeline, which will translate into a considerable cooling off of the globe’s surface later this year.

By the end of this year this cooling off will likely become quite evident in the satellite data (RSS and UAH). Implication: all the talk of warming will fade away.

Not only the globe will cool off, but also expect all the rhetoric about global warming to be put on ice for quite awhile. The resumption in warming will have been a very brief one, and the pause will get extended to 2 decades…and then more.

Surely the alarmist hotheads will then shift their focus to Arctic sea ice, freak weather events, coral bleaching or ocean acidification. And so the revolving door of bogus scare scenarios will continue.

1986:
“We have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could reduce the currently estimated global warmings due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to negligible proportions or reverse them altogether,” the scientists behind the report wrote.”

2016: 30 years ago scientists warned Congress on global warming. What they said sounds eerily familiar

Models on climate are routinely wrong, why would NCEP models of Niño 3.4 SST anomalies not also be potentially catastrophically wrong? It wasn’t but February when the models were predicting a drop to -2.5C and now, barely -1C over the upcoming six months? Why should I have any faith left in the models’ credibility?

That is absolutely correct. The most probable future climate has occurred in the past. It is cyclical. Doing confident predictions is impossible due to the random chaotic nature of climate drivers and the possibility of unknown events from space.

“Before it is safe to attribute a global warming or a global cooling effect to any other factor (CO2 in particular) it is necessary to disentangle the simultaneous overlapping positive and negative effects of solar variation, PDO/ENSO and the other oceanic cycles. Sometimes they work in unison, sometimes they work against each other and until a formula has been developed to work in a majority of situations all our guesses about climate change must come to nought.

So, to be able to monitor and predict changes in global temperature we need more than information about the past, current and expected future level of solar activity.

We also need to identify all the separate oceanic cycles around the globe and ascertain both the current state of their respective warming or cooling modes and, moreover, the intensity of each, both at the time of measurement and in the future.

Once we have a suitable formula I believe that changes in global temperature will no longer be a confusing phenomenon and we will be able to apportion the proper weight to other influencing factors such as the greenhouse effect of CO2.”

Statistically global temperature is a center-biased random walk (i.e. an ARMA(1,2) process with an autoregressive coefficient close to one). This means that when temperature is high it is more likely to fall and when it is low it is more likely to rise. According to ice core records it has been like this for the last 11,000 years.