With the Oilers all but eliminated from the post-season - their fourth consecutive regulation loss dropped their chances to 1-in-40 - and the outcome of this campaign nearly in the books, it seemed a good time to compare the progress of the Oilers’ rebuild to successful ones in Pittsburgh and Chicago

A lot goes into building a team beyond selecting early in the draft; these are by necessity abbreviated timelines.

Chicago

2007-08: Rookie seasons for Toews and Kane. Chicago finishes in a three-way tie for ninth in the West.

2008-09: Second year of Kane/Toews deals. Chicago goes to the Conference Finals. General manager Dale Tallon demoted.

2009-10: Final year of Kane/Toews entry-level deals. Chicago wins the Stanley Cup.

Summer 2010: Entry-level deals of Kane/Toews end; Chicago dumps a bunch of talent and the franchise regresses. Still a power in the West, but has lost in the first round each of the past two seasons.

Thanks to some poor management decisions along the way, new contracts for Kane and Toews triggered a series of trades that saw talent and money sent out of town – significant players like Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, Brian Campbell and others would be purged from the roster and it’s taken two years for the team to recover.

Edmonton

2010-11: First year of Hall’s entry-level deal. Oilers finish 15th in the West, draft Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first overall.

2011-12: Second year of Hall’s entry-level deal, first of Nugent-Hopkins’. Oilers finish 14th in the West, draft Nail Yakupov first overall.

2013: Present day. Final year of Hall’s entry-level deal, second of Nugent-Hopkins’, first of Yakupov’s.

Where are the Oilers – in terms of on-ice performance – today? Somewhere shy of Chicago in 2007-08, somewhere north of Pittsburgh in 2005-06? Chicago was two seasons out from the Stanley Cup in 2007-08, Pittsburgh two from a finals appearance.

One thing both Pittsburgh and Chicago had in common was that neither paid big money for their key pieces until they’d had some playoff success – Chicago’s top picks were still on entry-level deals when they won the Cup, Crosby and Malkin were both still on entry-level deals when Pittsburgh went to the Finals and Fleury was on a cheap bridge contract. The Oilers, on the other hand, are about to see Taylor Hall (and Jordan Eberle) graduate to the ranks of paid NHL stars.

Another thing Pittsburgh and Chicago had in common around this time was a change at the top. Craig Patrick, owing to the failures of his team, was dismissed around this time. Dale Tallon, owing less to failures of the team and more to salary problems (including that famous RFA incident), had just a year left in the top job at this point in the Chicago timeline. The safety of the Oilers’ management group is an unknown, though nothing in the team’s on-ice performance should make Kevin Lowe, Steve Tambellini and the rest feel comfortable.

As Pittsburgh shows, a lack of playoff hockey at this point doesn’t necessarily mean that the rebuild has failed or will fail – the Penguins recovered nicely in the years following their miserable 2005-06 campaign. Whether similar progression lies in the Oilers’ future remains to be seen.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

I'm almost afraid to find out what managements agenda is for next yr. Is it going to be Blind Eye management yet again, or are they finally going to make an effort to give the fans their moneys worth.

It's inappropriate to compare whats happened in Edmonton to Chicago or Pittsburgh. With Taylor Hall locking in his income for the next 7 yrs. I'm starting to wonder if he's frustrated to the point where he may want to earn most of that wearing a different jersey. That would add some discomfort to the chairs management are seated in.

I'm almost afraid to find out what managements agenda is for next yr. Is it going to be Blind Eye management yet again, or are they finally going to make an effort to give the fans their moneys worth.

It's inappropriate to compare whats happened in Edmonton to Chicago or Pittsburgh. With Taylor Hall locking in his income for the next 7 yrs. I'm starting to wonder if he's frustrated to the point where he may want to earn most of that wearing a different jersey. That would add some discomfort to the chairs management are seated in.

I suppose I would ask who had trade value last year? Hemsky was not high on the value list, and Gagner would have left a big hole at centre.

Dubnyk was in my mind as well, and though I really like Smid and Petry, I don't think they are in the same area as Keith and Seebrook.

How did Chicago get Sharp? Was that another draft choice as well?

It could be that Magnus and Harti and Klefbomb work out and become our "key pieces", but who's to say right now.

I suppose what I'm getting at is I think we had a different situation in Edmonton that required a different approach. It would be hard to look at our forward talent and say we didn't accomplish anything.

Like I said, I think we have something incredibly special to build around, we even have enough players that could be traded to build around the talent in town, but it remains to be seen whether or not we'll do that. I could see them drafting a decent centre with some size and skill, then saying, once this player develops, we'll have it. I mean, have any of the above mentioned rebuilds hinged so much on so many players developing?

By the time your suggested approach could work out, all of Hall, Eberle, Hopkins, Yakupov and Schultz will have burned through their ELC's and the Oilers won't be able to keep them all.

As JW points out in his article, the key to being able to win is to do it with important pieces on affordable contracts otherwise you don't have the cap room to add the other pieces you need to win a cup.

By the time your suggested approach could work out, all of Hall, Eberle, Hopkins, Yakupov and Schultz will have burned through their ELC's and the Oilers won't be able to keep them all.

As JW points out in his article, the key to being able to win is to do it with important pieces on affordable contracts otherwise you don't have the cap room to add the other pieces you need to win a cup.

I'm not really proposing anything, just answering two of Willis' comments and questions about one of my earlier posts.

I understand one of the main points in getting to the cup during a rebuild is to have your emerging stars still in their ELC, that way you can buy some more expensive players to help make the run. I agree with that. Having Hall and Ebs off their ELC is not so bad considering the rest of the salary we have coming off next year, and hopefully a buy out or two.

I think the trouble is going to be having all the wunderkids off their entry level deals. But maybe by then they will be so dominant it won't really matter. I mean, just look at the Burgh, or Chicago. All those guys are off their ELC and they are still powerhouses in the league.

More than any other Whitney's injury hurt this team so much. If he was in top 2 form, everyone else on our depth chart would have been pushed down one. Whose to say if we would have gotten the pieces we have now, but still getting a top 2 guy this summer is going to be really hard.

I still say see what it takes to get Coutier and Yandle. Combine that with a Klefbomb, and one year older Shultz, Yak, Hall, Ebs, and Nuge, and maybe that's enough.

I would think our fourth line is what any fourth line should be (can win a draw, has some energy players that can play a little hockey, and maybe even contribute every once in a blue moon). Our third line is a real mess though. I really don't know, it's all just speculation which is really fun to discuss, but not very productive I guess.

You know what analysis I would like to see? A breakdown of the non-draft personel moves (Trades, UFA's) that the rebuilding teams made in during their rebuilds. Compare PIT, CHI, CBJ, NYI, ATL and EDM. It is obvious that you cannot build through the draft alone, but I want to see the other moves these teams made and what leads to success of failure.

A lot of teams have experienced several years of consecutive lottery picks. Pittsburgh and Chicago eventually built themselves into contenders, but teams like Columbus, NYI and Florida have not. What differentiates the Pitt and Chi rebuilds is that their best forwards were their centers: Crosby/Malkin/Staal and Toews/Sharp/Bolland (yes Sharp played center that year). You can make a finicky point about Kane, but Toews/Sharp are better when you actually look past the stats and watch the games at both ends of the ice.

This should be no surprise when the perennial contenders over the past 30 years had 2 elite centers and a solid checking center. Gretzky/Messier/MacTavish, Lemieux/Francis/Trottier, Sakic/Forsberg/Ricci, Yzerman/Fedorov/Draper, Modano/Nieuwendyk/Carbonneau, Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Draper... So there are some exceptions to this (NJD) but there's definitely a trend there.

I have too many doubts thinking that a team building around wingers can seriously contend for the Cup, especially when teams now have to operate under a salary cap and devote limited cap space to the most important positions. I think that's why so many fans are critical of Sam Gagner; he's nowhere close to being a contending 2C.

I don't believe that the current management team has the guts to make the moves that this team needs to make in order to take the next step. They will likely use this close-but-no-cigar run as a crutch. If and when Tambellini is finally fired, it will probably be Lowe or MacT taking over anyways. The old boys club never leaves town. Too much buddy buddy between the owner and management if you ask me.

All I know is that I have two tickets for a really boring game at the end of the season in a dump , DUMP of an arena to watch it in.

Good thing Gretzky,Messier,Coffey,Fuhr and Kurri didn't know they were playing in a dump back then. They could've had it so much better somewhere else.

When the hockey team is this bad, for this long, I guess it's only natural for the sheep to get distracted and turn their focus to the building. Katz makes nearly 20 million in profits a year in the current facility. If that's inadequate, let him pay for the new building without taxpayer dollars. He'd have every cent of his money back inside of 10 yrs. I'm sure the city would make good use of the projected 50 million in profits per yr if this new facility gets built.

Starting to look like time is running out on this project. It's about to become a make or break issue in the upcoming election. I'd laugh if they wasted millions to get things started and then shipcanned the whole thing with a new city council and mayor. The building isn't even started yet and the roads in Edmonton have the look of a 3rd world country already.

A lot of teams have experienced several years of consecutive lottery picks. Pittsburgh and Chicago eventually built themselves into contenders, but teams like Columbus, NYI and Florida have not. What differentiates the Pitt and Chi rebuilds is that their best forwards were their centers: Crosby/Malkin/Staal and Toews/Sharp/Bolland (yes Sharp played center that year). You can make a finicky point about Kane, but Toews/Sharp are better when you actually look past the stats and watch the games at both ends of the ice.

This should be no surprise when the perennial contenders over the past 30 years had 2 elite centers and a solid checking center. Gretzky/Messier/MacTavish, Lemieux/Francis/Trottier, Sakic/Forsberg/Ricci, Yzerman/Fedorov/Draper, Modano/Nieuwendyk/Carbonneau, Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Draper... So there are some exceptions to this (NJD) but there's definitely a trend there.

I have too many doubts thinking that a team building around wingers can seriously contend for the Cup, especially when teams now have to operate under a salary cap and devote limited cap space to the most important positions. I think that's why so many fans are critical of Sam Gagner; he's nowhere close to being a contending 2C.

This.

All day long.

Also worth noting that virtually every cup winner has a dominant #1D and an above average goaltender.

Not only do the Oilers have glaring weaknesses as centre, they don't have even one top pairing defenseman and Dubnyk is NOT above average.

Good point about Seabrook and Keith. But Dmen are more difficult to project which is why it's very rare you see a Dman taken 1st overall. Chicago got it right with Seabrook and hit a home run with Keith, but they also drafted Cam Barker 3rd overall.

Would you rather that the Oilers have Thomas Hickey rather than Sam Gagner?

Strawman.

Keaton Ellerby, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk, Ian Cole and P.K. Subban were all available after Gagner was selected.

I don't know about Dubnyk vs Fleury (IMO Dubey is better), but I wonder why you didn't start the Oilers rebuild years with the Gagner draft. Seems like a logical starting point - if disagreeable from Kevin Lowe's perspective, and if anything you're more logical than most and not particularly known to be a management lapdog.

One other slight difference is that Toews spent an additional year in junior developing and Malkin developed for 3 years before playing in the NHL. That additional maturing time does make a difference that is not measurable.

Hall, Nuge and Yak all played in the year after they were drafted. Not that they were not capable of making the jump but being the first overall pick forced their hand. If Yak and Nuge were a number 2 picks, they may have played one more year of junior for more development and to grow physically.

I would suggest that if by game 40 next season, if significant pieces are not put in place to address weaknesses like top 4 D and top six with size that there definitely needs to be a change in management.

One other slight difference is that Toews spent an additional year in junior developing and Malkin developed for 3 years before playing in the NHL. That additional maturing time does make a difference that is not measurable.

Hall, Nuge and Yak all played in the year after they were drafted. Not that they were not capable of making the jump but being the first overall pick forced their hand. If Yak and Nuge were a number 2 picks, they may have played one more year of junior for more development and to grow physically.

I would suggest that if by game 40 next season, if significant pieces are not put in place to address weaknesses like top 4 D and top six with size that there definitely needs to be a change in management.

Game 40?? With the team they are icing they could be out of the race and another season would be lost!! The draft and/or July 1st is when Tambi and company have to make a tough decision and move a young gun for either a top 2 defenseman or a big body with skill to play top 6.

This whole Omark for Crosby mentality is ridiculous. You have to sacrifice something good to get something back. There are prospects aplenty, and lots of time to feel out who they want and who is going the other way. Hemsky and Whitney are the obvious names, but to truly make this team a playoff contender someone from 89,93,14,4,91, or 64 will need to be included.

Hope the Oiler brass has the balls to pull the trigger, otherwise this could end up being the Islanders sooner than one might think.

This is why the Oilers and all there PR men have to get the hell off Lazar.

This honestly scares the sh!t out of me! Mostly because I think the Oilers are inept at honestly assessing talent, despite that many people consider Stu Macgregor as magnificent, I don't, I also think the pro and amature scouting is just a step up from horrific.

The only way the Oilers get that 2nd elite center is by drafting him, there are elite centers in this draft to be had.

If the Oilers can make a deal with the Hurricanes, Flyers or N.J being a prime target they could get another bullet to use on the much need size and skill.

1. It has to start with management and be a long-term process to have a chance at success.

The Oilers have.

2. It needs to focus on drafting and development.

Again, done. Not expertly, but a wide margin from where it was when this process began (which was roughly January 2010).

3. Intelligent decisions need to be made with draft picks and an avoidance of focusing on a particular type of player to the exclusion of all-around talent.

Fail. They have been obsessed with adding the scoring-with-size type for so long they have wasted several years' draft picks on the Abneys, Jacques', and others in that same vein.

4. Every rebuild is different and no two are alike.

The Oilers' rebuild is a hybrid of many different approaches tailored to suit their own circumstances.

This isn't to suggest that it is necessarily the correct one, or that a correct one even exists, but rather that the Oilers had to restock on high-end talent, the injury bug gave them a great opportunity, and the years in which they were drafting were more or less dominated by a single talent choice at the top.

The Flames are starting their rebuild and have entirely different circumstances. They have a serviceable bottom-six, two good defensive options, and a boatload of goaltending prospects that can be tried out before any elite talent arrives. They also have virtually no real prospect depth that is NHL-ready and a management group that seems to lack a grasp of reality.

Look for the Oilers to make improvements in the details of the game: special teams, goal differential, the advanced analytics of Hall, Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins.

We're all getting hung up on where we're going to put the patio when the foundation is just drying.

That being said, let's fire Tambellini and replace him with Bob Green. ;-)

1. It has to start with management and be a long-term process to have a chance at success.

The Oilers have.

2. It needs to focus on drafting and development.

Again, done. Not expertly, but a wide margin from where it was when this process began (which was roughly January 2010).

3. Intelligent decisions need to be made with draft picks and an avoidance of focusing on a particular type of player to the exclusion of all-around talent.

Fail. They have been obsessed with adding the scoring-with-size type for so long they have wasted several years' draft picks on the Abneys, Jacques', and others in that same vein.

4. Every rebuild is different and no two are alike.

The Oilers' rebuild is a hybrid of many different approaches tailored to suit their own circumstances.

This isn't to suggest that it is necessarily the correct one, or that a correct one even exists, but rather that the Oilers had to restock on high-end talent, the injury bug gave them a great opportunity, and the years in which they were drafting were more or less dominated by a single talent choice at the top.

The Flames are starting their rebuild and have entirely different circumstances. They have a serviceable bottom-six, two good defensive options, and a boatload of goaltending prospects that can be tried out before any elite talent arrives. They also have virtually no real prospect depth that is NHL-ready and a management group that seems to lack a grasp of reality.

Look for the Oilers to make improvements in the details of the game: special teams, goal differential, the advanced analytics of Hall, Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins.

We're all getting hung up on where we're going to put the patio when the foundation is just drying.

That being said, let's fire Tambellini and replace him with Bob Green. ;-)

As stated earlier, any successful team is built from the back end out and down the middle.

The Oilers have an average starting goaltender, the defense is a mess without even ONE top pairing D and among the worst centre depth in the league.

Nucks will move Roy to the wing, one would think, Carter isn't a C anymore, Couts doesn't play C either, and Koivu is going to retire in a year or 2, so most of those teams have a 1/2 punch at C, RNH and Gags seem to compare well, if not favourably.

RNH hasn't regressed, he's played through an injury, and last game, from what I saw, RNH was pretty competent in the dot. From everything everyone has been saying about face-offs anyway, is that you get better with experience, and RNH is a 2nd year pro.

Nucks will move Roy to the wing, one would think, Carter isn't a C anymore, Couts doesn't play C either, and Koivu is going to retire in a year or 2, so most of those teams have a 1/2 punch at C, RNH and Gags seem to compare well, if not favourably.

RNH hasn't regressed, he's played through an injury, and last game, from what I saw, RNH was pretty competent in the dot. From everything everyone has been saying about face-offs anyway, is that you get better with experience, and RNH is a 2nd year pro.

The Canucks won't move Roy to wing...he's the perfect 3rd line centre for them.

And I realize Carter isn't playing centre...doesn't mean he can't.

Anaheim already has a replacement for Koivu in the organization....Peter Holland...6'2" 195.

Hopkins has been dreadful this season.

He's currently the 54th ranked centre in the league in points and, by the way. his FO% last night was 42%.

Given that Roberto is still a Canuck, I assume Gillis wants something in return for the asset. That something will most likely have an equally (or close) ugly cap hit. The buyout of Lu would be a PR disaster after a 1st round playoff exit ;)

When you look at the centres they'll be facing in the new Pacific division, they are dreadful.

Vancouver can run out Sedin, Kesler and Roy...all of whom are better than Hopkins.

LA has Kopitar, Carter, Richards and Stoll.

SJ has Thornton, Couture and Pavelski

Anaheim has Getzlaf, Koivu and Winnik

That's like taking a knife to a gunfight.

DSF, I think you are underrating Nuge. Is he struggling on the dot? Definitely. Do I have my doubts about his ceiling? Definitely. He was the #1 pick in a weak draft year.

That being said, he will improve with age and in a couple of seasons will be better than the majority of the pivots you listed here.

Vancouver - Sedin is better now, but will not be in two years. I like Kesler, but when you play only 9 games in a season you can't be compared to anyone - he is at the age where the wear and tear is starting to take its toll. Roy being better - ROTFLMAO. Did you have too much BC bud today already?

LA - All are better on the dot, but only Kopitar and Carter (when he plays center) bring more offence. As much as I love what Stoll brings to the table, his best days are behind him. FWIW, Nuge is likely better defensively than Carter and Richards already. Surprises the heck out of me as well, but neither of the Philly boys had a rep for their defence anyway.

SJ - Again, all are better on the dot. That being said, Jumbo Joe is slwoing noticeably in his old age, and Pavelski is as good as he will get. Couture is an interesting one, but since he is a few years older it is tough to say who will be better in the end between him and Nuge.

Anaheim - Getzlaf is better no questions asked, but Koivu and Winnick? Come on DSF, you have to let the blinders of hatred towards anything Oilers go at some point.

FWIW, the common denominator on all of those teams is a much stronger defensive corps than what the Oilers have (and likely will next year, unfortunately). That helps a centreman immensely with both d-zone responsibilities and the fast transition that leads to more scoring opportunities. While I am not sold on Nuge ever being one of top 5 first line centers, he will develop into a solid top line pivot.

Given that Roberto is still a Canuck, I assume Gillis wants something in return for the asset. That something will most likely have an equally (or close) ugly cap hit. The buyout of Lu would be a PR disaster after a 1st round playoff exit ;)

Crosby is listed at an $8.7M cap hit that year. Pittsburgh still won the Cup with a middling overall cap #, but with Crosby at $8.7M, and all of Whitney, Guerin, Gonchar, Satan, Kunitz, Orpik, Fleury, and even Malkin's cap hits at >$3.5M, many of their players were getting paid real dollars. Malkin remains a bargain at his rookie max cap hit and there are a handful of useful players making

How do you drink Koolaid on the coast with no cups? No caproom = no flexibility. A "very smart GM" doesn't put an obviously devastated player in front of a microphone 10 minutes after his trade out of town falls apart. The cap next year is going to have a major impact on that roster. It's now or never....

DSF, I think you are underrating Nuge. Is he struggling on the dot? Definitely. Do I have my doubts about his ceiling? Definitely. He was the #1 pick in a weak draft year.

That being said, he will improve with age and in a couple of seasons will be better than the majority of the pivots you listed here.

Vancouver - Sedin is better now, but will not be in two years. I like Kesler, but when you play only 9 games in a season you can't be compared to anyone - he is at the age where the wear and tear is starting to take its toll. Roy being better - ROTFLMAO. Did you have too much BC bud today already?

LA - All are better on the dot, but only Kopitar and Carter (when he plays center) bring more offence. As much as I love what Stoll brings to the table, his best days are behind him. FWIW, Nuge is likely better defensively than Carter and Richards already. Surprises the heck out of me as well, but neither of the Philly boys had a rep for their defence anyway.

SJ - Again, all are better on the dot. That being said, Jumbo Joe is slwoing noticeably in his old age, and Pavelski is as good as he will get. Couture is an interesting one, but since he is a few years older it is tough to say who will be better in the end between him and Nuge.

Anaheim - Getzlaf is better no questions asked, but Koivu and Winnick? Come on DSF, you have to let the blinders of hatred towards anything Oilers go at some point.

FWIW, the common denominator on all of those teams is a much stronger defensive corps than what the Oilers have (and likely will next year, unfortunately). That helps a centreman immensely with both d-zone responsibilities and the fast transition that leads to more scoring opportunities. While I am not sold on Nuge ever being one of top 5 first line centers, he will develop into a solid top line pivot.

You expect Hopkins will be a better in a couple of years and I don't disagree.

What you're assuming is the GM's of competing teams will sit on their hands like Lowe and Co. and wait for that to happen while not doing anything to improve their teams.

That is NOT going to happen.

Gillis, Lombardi and Wilson are very good at their jobs and, if there is a weakness in their teams, they address it immediately.

You assume Hopkins will be better than Sedin in 2 years with absolutely no evidence to back it up.

You assume Hopkins is better than Carter and Richards with no evidence to back it up.

I agree SJ needs a renewal but don't assume Wilson won't do anything to keep his team in the hunt. He always does.

Saku Koivu IS a better player right now than Hopkins and anyone who can't see that doesn't know much about hockey.

Considering Getzlaf isn't going anywhere, all Anaheim has to do is come up with a second line centre who is better than Gagner...shouldn't be too hard.

Winnik is a great 3rd line centre and I expect he'll be much better than Horcoff as the years pass.

Blaming everything on the Oilers D is a convenient excuse so perhaps you can explain to me how a centre who is younger than Hopkins and playing on a horrible team in Florida is outscoring Hopkins 27-22?

How do you drink Koolaid on the coast with no cups? No caproom = no flexibility. A "very smart GM" doesn't put an obviously devastated player in front of a microphone 10 minutes after his trade out of town falls apart. The cap next year is going to have a major impact on that roster. It's now or never....

Nonsense.

The Canucks have 2 compliance buyouts and a Luongo trade at their disposal.

Re that last bit, RNH was playing through an injury, and isn't getting sheltered minutes, and is focusing more on defense, considering he's +1 on a team with a -GD, while Hubby is -12? or -13 now and seems to be drying up recently anyway.

What flexibility? They apparently have 1.4M in cap space with 15 players signed.

Smart GM? He was the idiot who signed Ballard and Lu in the first place.

Re you saying Carter doesn't play center but could, well so could Hall.

Holland is a blue chipper, but who knows, maybe injuries kill his career, maybe he never translates his AHL game to the NHL. He isn't established so he isn't really a concrete option.

Hopkins was playing through an injury, and if you look at his last 20 games he has 15 points and is +3 on a team with a -GD, all while playing unsheltered minutes against toughs, and is still a teenager...

Maybe.

Maybe.

Maybe.

Do you know how many points Hopkins has this season against playoff teams?