At that time last year, I was thinking that the SFPD was going easy on the homeless having to do with the end-of-the-year holidays, or the (anticipated) El Niño rainstorms, and I also wondered if preparations for the unexpectedly expensive and unpopular corporate party for the NFL’s 50th Super Bowl were a factor.

“We are analyzing and pumping out this information as fast as we can. The package you see today — including San Francisco’s most sophisticated ranked-choice voting simulator, masterminded by news applications developer Shane Shifflett and lead software engineer Aurelio Tinio — was completed around 2 a.m. Monday; it was up on our website at 4 a.m. Next we will bring you information about the controversial pension reform initiatives and the races for district attorney and sheriff. Finally, we will put up the full data set, so people can take their own look and draw their own conclusions.”]

“When the Board of Supervisors named Lee interim mayor in January, after former Mayor Gavin Newsom was elected lieutenant governor, Lee promised not to run for a full term. But after two of his biggest political supporters — Rose Pak, the powerful Chinatown lobbyist, and former Mayor Willie Brown — led an effort to draft him into the race, Lee changed his mind.”

SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 17, 2011 — An exclusive poll conducted by The Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco (USF) Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good shows interim mayor Ed Lee poised to win the November 8 mayor’s race handily. The poll shows Lee with broad support across the city, particularly among Chinese voters.

Lee won 31.2 percent of first-place votes, surpassing his closest challenger, City Attorney Dennis Herrera, who won 8.1 percent. Supervisor John Avalos finished third, with 7.4 percent of first-place votes.

At baycitizen.org, the poll results power a computer simulation that shows how the election may unfold under “ranked-choice voting.” This is the first competitive San Francisco mayor’s race to use the system that asks voters to select their top three candidates in order of preference.

The Bay Citizen simulation allows readers to view how votes are redistributed after candidates are eliminated. It projects Lee the winner if the election were held today.

On Tuesday, October 18 The Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco will release poll results on the San Francisco District Attorney’s race, the Sheriff’s race, and Propositions C and D, the two pension reform measures on the ballot.

The poll results are based on telephone interviews of a random sample of 551 likely San Francisco voters between Oct. 7 and Oct. 13, 2011. The survey was conducted by MAXimum Research, an independent research firm, in English and Cantonese; Spanish was not used because only 1 percent of San Francisco voters request ballot materials in Spanish. Of the respondents, 115 were contacted by cell phone and 436 by landline. After the interviews, the data were weighted to match the demographics of the known likely voting population. The sampling error for findings based on the overall pool of likely voters is +/- 4.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error for population subgroups is larger.

About The Bay Citizen

The Bay Citizen is a nonprofit, nonpartisan member-supported news organization that provides in-depth original reporting on Bay Area issues including public policy, education, the arts and cultural affairs, health and science, the environment, and more. The Bay Citizen’s news can be found online at www.baycitizen.org as well as in print in The New York Times Bay Area report on Fridays and Sundays. For more information, please visit www.baycitizen.org.

About the University of San Francisco (USF)

The University of San Francisco is in the heart of one of the most innovative and diverse cities and features a vibrant community of students and faculty who achieve excellence in their fields while building a more humane and just world. University of San Francisco students, faculty, and alumni are involved in the entrepreneurial city of San Francisco and work in all industries, from technology to nonprofits. With dedicated professors and exceptional academic programs to choose from, the university offers undergraduate, graduate, and professional students the knowledge and skills needed to develop into ethical leaders who are sought after in their professions. USF’s diverse student body benefits from direct access to faculty, small class sizes, and a broad array of programs and co-curricular opportunities. Informed by the university’s 156-year-old Jesuit Catholic mission, the USF community ignites students’ passion for social justice and the pursuit of the common good. For more information about the University of San Francisco, please visit www.usfca.edu.

About USF Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good

The Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good is dedicated to inspiring and equipping students at USF to pursue lives and careers of ethical public service and service to others. The Center provides a non-partisan forum for education, service and research in public programs and policy-making. The McCarthy Center values civic engagement and seeks to promote public interest research that encourages civil discourse and constructive interaction among the great diversity of residents and officials in the Bay Area. The Center strives to accomplish its goals by being transparent, nonpartisan and rigorous in designing its work and products. For more information please visit www.usfca.edu/centers/mccarthy

There is an upcoming San Francisco election on November 8, 2011. How likely it is that you will vote in this election?

I will definitely vote

I will probably vote

I’m not sure if I’ll vote

I probably won’t vote

I’m definitely not going to vote

Thinking about San Francisco, do you feel that it is moving in the right or wrong direction overall?

Right direction

Wrong direction

This November, there will be an election for Mayor in San Francisco. Even though the election is several months away, if you were voting today, please tell us your first, second, and third choices among the declared candidates below.

FIRST choice

SECOND choice

THIRD choice

State Senator Leland Yee

San Francisco Supervisor John Avalos

President, San Francisco Board of Supervisors David Chiu

Former San Francisco Supervisor Tony Hall

Former San Francisco Supervisor Michela Alioto-Pier

San Francisco City Attorney Dennis Herrera

Undecided

Someone else

Venture Capitalist Johanna Rees

San Francisco Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting

Former San Francisco Supervisor Bevan Dufty

The current Interim mayor, Ed Lee, may soon decide to run for a full mayoral term this November. With Ed Lee as an option, please tell us your first, second, and third choices among the declared candidates below.

FIRST choice

SECOND choice

THIRD choice

Former San Francisco Supervisor Tony Hall

Interim Mayor Ed Lee

San Francisco Supervisor John Avalos

State Senator Leland Yee

Venture Capitalist Johanna Rees

Former San Francisco Supervisor Michela Alioto-Pier

Someone else

Undecided

President, San Francisco Board of Supervisors David Chiu

San Francisco City Attorney Dennis Herrera

San Francisco Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting

Former San Francisco Supervisor Bevan Dufty

Pension Reform Charter AmendmentsThere are two pension reform measures: the ‘City’ plan and the ‘Adachi’ plan.The ‘City Plan’ is a compromise between the mayor, the Supervisors, and most Labor groups in San Francisco. Among other things, it adjusts contribution rates for current and future employees to the San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System, increases retirement age for new hires, caps salary that can be pensioned, and makes other changes. The ‘City’ plan is estimated to save $50 million in 2012-13 and between $90-$150 million per year after that.

The other pension reform plan is Public Defender Jeff Adachi’s pension reform initiative. It calls for an increase of all City employees’ contributions to the City pension plan, including police and fire. The ‘Adachi’ plan is estimated to save the city around $100 million per year.

The measure that receives the most votes is the one that will become law.

How do you intend to vote on the ‘City‘ pension reform plan?

I will definitely vote for it

I will probably vote for it

I’m undecided

I will probably not vote for it

I will definitely not vote for it

How do you intend to vote on the ‘Adachi‘ pension reform plan?

I will definitely vote for it

I will probably vote for it

I’m undecided

I will probably not vote for it

I will definitely not vote for it

Initiative – Repeal approval for Board’s Parkmerced decision The Board of Supervisors recently approved a $1.2 billion dollar plan to build 9,000 housing units over the next twenty years. About 1,500 rent-controlled units need to be demolished to do this, though the agreement with the developer is that they will be replaced. This initiative seeks to overturn the Board’s approval.How do you intend to vote on this initiative?

I will definitely vote for it

I will probably vote for it

I’m undecided

I will probably not vote for it

I will definitely not vote for it

More information on Repeal approval for Board’s Parkmerced decision Supporters (people against the Parkmerced project) say that the destruction of 1,500 rent-controlled units is unacceptable. Although the developer has agreed to replace the units, this may not be enforceable in court.Opponents (people who support the Parkmerced project) say this project will bring thousands of jobs, an additional 1,700 rent-controlled units (on top of the replaced units), and improved transit to the area.

How do you intend to vote on this initiative?

I will definitely vote for it

I will probably vote for it

I’m undecided

I will probably not vote for it

I will definitely not vote for it

More information on Changing rules of leasing San Francisco Park and Rec facilities Supporters of the ordinance say that public parks should not be leased for profit, and nearly all park amenities should be free, as they’re already covered by tax dollars. This prevents privatization of public spaces.Opponents say that it isn’t clear what facilities fall under this, and it’s possible that all park space becomes subject to these restrictions, including weddings and picnics. Also, Park and Rec needs all the revenue it can get for its programs.

Erin Lehane (Lehane, Lehane – where have I heard of that name before?) of CalInnovates.org, “a California technology coalition,” is crowing about some new poll today. Apparently, she’s chilling at the CTIA (Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association) convention today in the 415, which is kind if funny since CITA announced a boycott of our little burg like a half-year ago.

Anyway, back to the poll. It’s absurd.

To wit:

“Now the next time you are on a plane waiting to take-off, you can just look at your neighbor sitting next to you tweeting on his iPhone and know that he is more likely to be adding applications to track where the nearest Tea Party rally is than your neighbor to the left of you typing away on his Blackberry.”

I don’t know where to begin.

But, as always, You Make The Call.

Are these Apple fan boys and girls ripe fodder for the Tea Party?

Absurdity comience:

HOW YOU PHONE IS HOW YOU THINK: IPHONE USERS MORE APT TO BELIEVE IN GOP TAKEOVER OF CONGRESS, BE INFLUENCED BY TEA PARTY, NEW POLL FINDS – iPhone Users Are Influenced by Tea Party Endorsements Two Times as Much as Android or Blackberry Users

San Francisco, CA — CALinnovates.org, a California technology coalition, released a poll today at the annual CTIA (Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association) convention in San Francisco about what voters’ mobile phones indicate about their political opinions.

“It’s fascinating research because our mobile phones are increasingly our portal to life, whether its politics, news, our job or even our friends and family,” said Tom Galvin, Zogby/463 pollster. “We’re seeing a sea change as we go into the mid-term elections but what we learned in this survey is that voters are choosing their mobile technology in ways that predict behavior or opinions.”

The new national Zogby/463 online survey found the following:Nearly 60 percent (58.9%) of iPhone users are more likely to predict a Republican majority in Congress in this year’s mid-term elections, while nearly 44.8 percent of Blackberry and 46.5 percent of Android users are more likely to predict a Republican majority.iPhone users are two times more likely to be influenced by the Tea Party than those voters who carry a Android or Blackberry phone.
1 in 5 iPhone users are influenced by the Tea Party.iPhone users were twice as likely to say thatSarah Palin speaks for them than Android and Blackberry users.Around 10 percent of likely voters evenly across mobile platforms say that Glenn Beck speaks for them.

Innovation was found to be important to voters and a strong majority support maintaining the Internet without additional regulation. Specifically, the poll found:
· iPhone users are twice as likely to believe that innovation incentives are a better option to stimulate the economy than funding public works projects.
· All likely voters are three times more likely to support a hands off approach to the Internet and supportive of not adding regulations. Of those voters, nearly 70 percent of iPhone and Android users and 50 percent of Blackberry users support keeping the Internet free of additional regulation.

In addition, other findings include:
Nearly 70 percent of Blackberry users feel confident about the country’s future over the next decade and nearly 90 percent of Blackberry users feel confident about their personal future.
Less than 50 percent of iPhone users feel confident about the country’s future over the next decade while 78 percent of iPhone users feel confident about their personal future.
Likely voters who do not own a mobile phone report the lowest levels of confidence of any group tested with less than 30 percent have any confidence of the future of the country over the next decade and 55 percent have confidence in their own personal future.

“The results tell us a lot about mobile phone users and political trends,” said Erin Lehane, CALinnovates.org Executive Director. “Now the next time you are on a plane waiting to take-off, you can just look at your neighbor sitting next to you tweeting on his iPhone and know that he is more likely to be adding applications to track where the nearest Tea Party rally is than your neighbor to the left of you typing away on his Blackberry.”
The poll, a national Zogby online surveyed 2,077 likely voters with a margin of error of 2.2%. It was conducted October 1 through October 4, 2010.

CALinnovates.org is a statewide coalition focused on championing the conversation about the future of California’s critical technology sector. CALinnovates.org brings together industry experts, thought leaders, tech innovators, policy makers and consumers in a nonpartisan mission to promote innovation, create new jobs, spur investment and support tech-friendly

Jerry Brown this morning is crowing about this bit from Rasmussen Reports. Would you agree that JB is “decisively beating” (as he puts it) the leading Republican candidates based on these results?

“California Attorney General Jerry Brown leads all Republican challengers in an early look at the state’s 2010 governor’s race. But with San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom as the Democratic candidate, the three Republicans are competitive.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 statewide telephone survey finds that Brown leads former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 44% to 35%. He holds a 45% to 32% advantage over State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and a 44% to 34% edge over Tom Campbell, an ex-congressman and former state finance director.”

“Brown served as governor of California from 1975 to 1983. Since then, he has been chairman of the California Democratic Party, mayor of Oakland and the state’s attorney general. He ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976, 1980, and 1992 and for the U.S. Senate in 1982.

Newsom is challenging Brown for the right to represent Democrats in the 2010 governor’s race. All three Republican candidates hold a very modest edge over Newsom at this time, but if Newsom were to win the nomination, the political gravity of the state would likely give him a boost in the general election.

Currently, Whitman has the edge over Newsom 41% to 36%. Poizner leads the San Francisco mayor by a nearly identical 40% to 36% margin while Campbell is ahead 42% to 36%.”