Weeks before commencement ceremonies, the San Diego Unified School District has predicted a striking increase in its graduation rate amid new standards that make it more difficult to earn a diploma.

A record 92 percent of all students in the class of 2016 are on track to graduate in June, district officials said Tuesday.

San Diego Unified’s analysis contradicts a string of bleak studies that have forecast a sharp drop in diplomas issued under the new graduation standards, which require students to complete the sequence of courses needed for admission to a California public university.

Just last month , the Public Policy Institute of California issued a report showing that San Diego Unified’s graduation rate was poised to drop to 72 percent, down from 88 percent the prior year. The predicted dip was linked almost exclusively to the new rules requiring students to complete the 15 yearlong college-prep courses, commonly referred to as the “A-G” sequence.

But that report, along with others, relied on data from students in the class of 2016 through their junior year, said Ron Rode, who heads the district’s research and development office.

San Diego Unified’s latest analysis reflects the progress students have made this school year through an expanded menu of interventions, from after-hours tutoring to online courses to the broader administration of a native-language test that allows students to opt out of required foreign language classes.

“It’s been a multifaceted approach. Schools did a lot of work on their master schedules, meaning they looked at their student needs, and made sure they offered enough of the right courses to meet those needs,” Rode said.

Students who don’t make it to graduation in June have an opportunity to take summer courses to make the final 2016 commencement ceremonies in August. The district could ultimately see an overall 94 percent graduation rate by August, giving San Diego Unified the top graduation rate among large urban districts, Rode said.

“This is not as huge of a stretch as some might believe it is,” he said, adding that the most of the A-G coursework was required of students under the old graduation criteria.

The biggest changes under the new rules require students to take two years of the same foreign language class, a third year of college-prep math, and one year of a visual and performing arts class.

Since the school board voted in 2009 to adopt A-G graduation standards for the class of 2016, San Diego Unified scrubbed course catalogs of “filler classes,” and added foreign language classes in all middle schools to help level the playing field and prepare students for graduation. What’s more, every student transcript has been personally reviewed by a district official, said Superintendent Cindy Marten.

“I’d like to focus on how did this actually happen,” Marten said. “We promised our students we would support them if they if they dreamed big. When I started three years ago, not every high school even offered all the classes you needed to get into college. If you don’t have access, how do you deliver on the promise?”

A decade ago, only 40 percent of San Diego Unified students met A-G requirements.

At least a dozen California school districts have aligned graduation requirements with A-G coursework, with the goal of preparing more students for college and careers — regardless of ZIP code, income and ethnicity .

The Los Angeles Unified, Oakland Unified, San Francisco Unified and San Jose Unified are among the districts that require the college-prep courses to earn a diploma. The Sweetwater Union High School District has been working for years to implement an A-G graduation policy.

San Diego Unified is among several districts that accept a D grade in the college-preparatory coursework, even though UC and Cal State campuses call for a C or better. However, to graduate, San Diego students must earn an overall 2.0 grade point average, which is higher than what some other districts accept.

About half of San Diego Unified students in the class of 2016 who started their senior year off track to graduate because of the new standards also had a GPA below 2.0, according to the “College Prep for All” PPIC report and its precursor study released by UC San Diego’s San Diego Education Research Alliance in March. Researchers said those students face “double jeopardy” in the sense “of having to take a large number of A-G courses while improving their GPAs.”

As of August, nearly 15 percent of students had more than a full year of coursework to complete in two or more subject areas this school year, the studies showed.

The San Francisco Unified School District saw a slight dip in its graduation rate from 81.7 percent in 2013 to 79.9 percent in 2014 when it implemented its A-G policy. Black and Latino students were hurt hardest by the new graduation standards.

PPIC researchers had predicted that San Diego could expect an even more dramatic decrease in graduation rates because San Francisco has long outperformed other urban districts when it comes to students graduating “college ready.”

San Diego Unified has not released detailed data, showing exactly how students made progress toward meeting the graduation rules in recent months, or which student groups make up the 8 percent who are are not on track to graduate.

Julian Betts, a UC San Diego economics professor and a co-author of both the PPIC and UC San Diego report, said in March he was skeptical about San Diego Unified’s ability to maintain a graduate rate that approached 90 percent.

“Maybe they will get up to 80 percent, or even 85 percent by June,” he told The San Diego Union-Tribune based on the data and findings of the April report. “If it was beyond 85 percent, wouldn’t you wonder?”

Betts was unavailable for comment Tuesday.

Marten said she believes San Diego Unified’s Class of 2016 is particularly prepared to meet stricter graduation standards due to the increase in advanced classes offered under new partnerships with local colleges and universities. More than 1,600 students are taking college classes while still in high school.

The projected graduation rate is striking, Marten said, given the diversity of district students who speak more than 60 languages and come from over 170 nations.

Among the most successful graduation interventions put in place for the A-G rules was one that acknowledged the district’s diversity by promoting a native-language test that allows students to opt out of foreign language classes needed to graduate, Marten said.

So far, 952 students passed that test this year, four times more than last year. The test was administered in Spanish, Vietnamese, Cambodian, Somali, Swahili, and Arabic. Next year, the district plans to expand the test to include four additional languages.