To link to the entire object, paste this link in email, IM or documentTo embed the entire object, paste this HTML in websiteTo link to this page, paste this link in email, IM or documentTo embed this page, paste this HTML in website

today
Exhibits
See today's Vibrations mst
xlne for continuing exhibit
schedules.
Monday
Exhibits
New: Klrtley Library,
Colombia College, 38 reproduc-tions
of paintings and drawings
by Pieter Bruegel, a 16th Century
Flemish painter, 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.
weekdays, 8 am. to 5 p.m.
Saturdays and 2 to 10 pjn.
Sundays. See today's Vibrations
for ccottnamg exhibit schedules.
Movie listings on page ISA
Insight
Dream game
captivates
sports fans
Nation's rhythm
will slow to halt
on Super Sunday
The Super Bowl is just a football
game, nothing more, nothing less.
--An NFLofficial
Just a game? Mythically speaking,
something mysterious and powerful is
going on here. -- v,
A theologian
ByJoaNordneimer
. N.Y. Times Service
LOS ANGELES - After 10 years,
America still hasn't made up its mind
about the Super Bowl.
Like other creations of a modern
society's mass communications
network, the concept has had more
appeal than its substance.
Ten times the league's championship
teams have met Ten times the nation
in ever-increasi- ng numbers has
gathered before television screens from.
KennybunkperttoHilo. Twtimethare ,. --
has been some measure of
disappointment that the ultimate
football game the dream game mat
such matchups of skill and brawn must
ultimately produce has once again
failed to materialize despite all the
publicity, prestige and pretxels that it
takes to produce a Super Sunday.
But the spectacle holds such potential
for drama and excellence that Super
Bowl XI will engage the rapt attention
of nearly half the nation and reach
others around the globe by radio and
television satellite.
When the Minnesota Vikings and
Oakland Raiders line up for the kickoff
at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena today,
the rhythm of midwinter America on a
Sunday afternoon will change.
The National Broadcasting Co.,
which is handling the telecast of the
game this year, has estimated that 75
million people will watch all or a
portion of the football contest
National Football League officials
suspect that this figure is low, based on
Gzed measurements of how many
viewers watch standard programs on
television. Viewing habits, they say,
change for the Super Bowl; the game
has become an American institution
mat brings people together socially --
before television sets in countless living --
rooms, hotels and bars and grills. An
estimated 30 million sets will carry the
game at its peak.
"1 wouldn't be surprised if 100 million
Americans, nearly one out of two,
actually watch at least part of the game
on Sunday," agreed oneNBC official.
For three hours or so, America will
move indoors and other aspects of
public life will slow down or stop.
Telephone traffic will decline during
the game except for the halftime break
when relatives, friends or business
associates will replay the first half over
the phone. Airlines will have lighter
passenger loads while the game is on,
while some jumbo jets on
transcontinental flights will pick up the
Super Bowl television signal from
ground stations along the route.
Attendance at tourist attractions like
(See SUPER BOWL, page MA)
69th Year - No. 94 Good Morning! It's Sunday, Jan. 9, 1 977 4 Sections - 48 I'ugeN - 35 Cents
- --- ... .. ..
From our wire services
PLAINS, Ga. President-elec- t
Jimmy Carter said Saturday he will
send Vice President-elec- t Walter
Mondale on a get-acquaint- ed trip to
Europe ami Japan during the first week
of the Carter administration.
The President-ele- ct said he himself
probably will attend an economic
summit meeting of the world's indus-trialized
democracies this year,
possibly in late May or June.
Carter said be still intends to mini
mize his own travel in the first year of
his administration but would make an
exception for the economic summit.
Carter also said he "kely will meet
with Soviet party leader Leonid
Brezhnev sometime before next fall
and hopes by that time to have achieved
"substantial" progress on a new
strategic arms limitation treaty.
Carter talked to reporters at a chilly
outdoor news conference on the lawn of
his home.
He touched briefly on the economic
stimulus program he unveiled Friday
BHBBSUmHaSJHXMHiMSHDHHgBnnMHMBnHHBMtfMfl
and said low- - and middle-incom- e
Americans should get their 1976 tax
rebate checks soon after Congress
approves the plan.
"I don't foresee any problem in
getting the rebate checks out rapidly,"
he said.
Carter also said he has not yet
decided the exact terms of his promised
pardon of Vietnam draft evaders, but
he might expand it to cover deserters
and some categories of dishonorable
dischargees.
He said the purpose of the Mondale
trip is to let America's closest allies
"know in some detail what I and the
United States Congress propose to do
about the stimulation of our economy.
"In addition to that, he will explore
with them better means by which we
might coordinate our NATO policies,
deal with the problems of the increased
oil prices, and also share with them
some of our potential plans at that point
for helping to resolve the potential
problems surrounding Cyprus and
Turkey and Greece, the Middle East,
and of course the southern Africa
question."
Mondale, who expects to return to
Washington about Feb. 1, is hitting the
foreign travel trail earUer than any
other vice president in recent history.
President Kennedy dispatched
Lyndon Johnson to Senegal and Paris in
April 1961, three months after his
inauguration. Four years later, as
president, Johnson sent then Vice
President Hubert Humphrey to Pans in
June. In 1969 President Nixon sent
Spiro Agnew to the Far East, but not
until late December.
Icicles hanging from a rooftop become part of a peaceful landscape in the still of the night
Winds to howl; temperatures to plunge
By Jan Smith
Missourian staff writer
Mid-Missouria- ns, still digging out
from last week's 7 inches (17.5 centi-meters)
of snow, now face wind-chi-ll
factors plunging as low as --30
degrees F (-- 35 C) tonight and fierce
northerly winds which could cause
snowdrifts.
The wind-chi- ll factor also was pre--
dieted to hit --30 F (-- 35 C) Saturday
night.
"People involved in any outside
activity would be wise to cover any
Weather details en page 14A
exposed flesh. The subzero wind-chi- ll
factor could cause rapid frost-bite
or frozen tissue," said Russ
Martin, National Weather Service
specialist.
Wind-chi- ll factors combine the
temperature and the wind speed to
quantify the cooling power the
weather has on exposed flesh, said
Delbert Porter, weather service
specialist.
Columbia's bitter wind-chi- ll factor
is the result of winds blowing from 10
to 20 miles-p- er hour (16 to 33
kilometers per hour) and tempera- -
tures ranging from a predicted high
of 5F (-- 15 C) today to --5 to -- 10 F (-- lto
--23 C) tonight.
A cold front passed through the
Columbia area Saturday morning,
moving from northwest Missouri
toward the southeast part of the
state. Accompanying the front were
strong northerly winds and cold
(See MORE SNOW, page 16A)
Bad weather blamedfor deaths, injuries
By United Press International
Sand trucks and salters Saturday
followed plows along New England , roadways, clogged by abandoned
cars and up to 20 inches (50 centi-meters)
of snow from a winter
storm. A cold air mass crept south-ward
through the Midwest, and a
new winter storm moved into the
Southwest
New England counted six
weather-relate- d deaths in what the
National Weather Service called a
"severe winter storm" over the area
Friday.
Only snow flurries remained of the
storm in which winds of up to 92
miles an hour (147 kilometers per
hour) were clocked at Cape Cod,
Mass. But the winter winds curtailed
the search for survivors from the
Panamanian tanker Grand Zenith,
lost at sea with its crewof 38.
Three persons, all unconscious,
were rescued from a stalled auto-mobile
covered with snow at
Weymouth, Mass., after the driver
used a citizens' band radio to
summon help that came on a snow-mobile.
A police spokesman said an
alert was sent out on CB for
"anybody in snowmobiles to help us
and we got some responses."
The dead in New England included
two heart attack victims after
exertion in snow, a snowmobiler
whose vehicle went over a 45-fo- ot
(13.5-mete- r) ledge, an auto accident
victim on a snowy road, a youth
killed by a snow plow and an elderly
man dead of exposure and found
under snow after collapsing in his
yard.
Russian charged in espionage case
From our wire services
NEWARK, NJ. A former Soviet
seaman was held without bond
Saturday on charges of conspiring to
pass classified documents about the
American space program to a Soviet
official.
Ivan Rogalsky, a 34-year-- old unem-ployed
mechanic, was held in the
Bergen County Jail on espionage.
charges punishable by death. He was
represented by a public defender at bis
arraignment Saturday morning before
U.S. Magistrate William J. Hunt.
Rogalsky was arrested Friday night
in rural Lakewood Township. He had in
his possession a classified document
from an RCA Corp. research center
that works on top secret communica-tions
satellites and defense projects.
The FBI complaint portrayed Rogal- -
sky as a patient espionage agent who
tried to cultivate a U.S. contact to feed
him vital American defense secrets.
The information was passed to
Yevgeniy Karpov, a member of the
Soviet intelligence network posing as
part of the Russian delegation to the
United Nations.
As second secretary of the Soviet
- mission at the UJNJ., Karpov has diplo-matic
immunity and cannot be arrested
by U.S. authorities. He can, however,
be asked to leave the country.
Authorities said Rogalsky had been
under surveillance for six months
before his arrest They said he held
nearly a dozen meetings with Paul S.
Nekrasov, an RCA engineer who was
secretly cooperating with the FBI.
After many of the meetings,
Rogalsky reported to Karpov, the FBI
said.
Flexibility
important
to Carter
That led to idea
for 2-ye- ar plan
By Eileen Shanahan
N.Y. Times Service
WASHINGTON - President-elec- t
Carter and his economic policy
advisers decided on a two-ye- ar
program of economic stimulus, with a
total price tag of $25 billion to $32
billion, because they feared that a one-ye- ar
program, even one costing up to
$20 billion, might not be adequate to get
the economy back onto a solid growth
path.
This and other details of how the
economic-stimulu- s package was put
together, and why, were disclosed in
interviews Saturday with some of those
who played key roles in shaping the
package.
Thededsion to spread the economic
stimulus over two years evolved
gradually, according to participants.
In addition to their fears that a one-ye- ar
program might prove inadequate,
they were motivated by a desire
partly generated by congressional
pressure to include substantial
public works, public jobs and job-traini- ng
programs in the package.
Carter's advisers soon realized it
simply was not possible to efficiently
spend even as much as $5 billion on
public works programs by the end of
the current fiscal year because
expansion of public works programs
and job-traini- ng programs takes time.
So the Carter circle junked the
concept presented to Carter and to a
key group of business executives Dec.
9, of a $20 billion stimulus package for
fiscal 1977.
To include a substantial volume of
public works and public service
employment the program had to be
extended into fiscal 1978.
The two-ye- ar package also could be
kept flexible, pleasing Charles L.
Schultze, the chairman-designat- e of the
Council of Economic Advisers.
He is reported to have argued for the
two-ye- ar program but wanted the
option of cancelling some of the second-ye-ar
spending.
For this reason, the planned $4 billion
addition to the present $2 billion public
works construction program will be
implemented in two sections, with the
option of cancelling the second part.
Bert Lance, the budget director-designat- e,
was instructed by Carter at
the Thursday meeting to search for an
additional $2 billion in budget cuts in
other governmental programs that
could be put into effect in fiscal 1978.
Even if Congress acts quickly on the
whole Carter package, as is expected,
the accompanying change in
withholding rates, which would
mainly affect those with incomes
between $5,000 and $15,000, would
probably not take effect until about
Mayl.
U.S. economic growth to slow this year
. WASHINGTON (AP) - The rate of
growth in the economy this year will
probably be slower than that of last
year, the Commerce Department said
Saturday, Bat it added the growth
should be enough to reduce unemploy-ment
vrttbout stimulating iaflatiou.
The broad economic assessment was
given by chief economist John W.
Kendrick as part of the agency 's annual
industrial outlook publication. It was
written before President-ele- ct Carter
unveiled, his SSO-Wlli-da economic
stimuluflpackageFriday. "
Kendrick said the rise in consumer
prices in 1977 is projected to remajn
close to last year's gain of less than 6
percent
With the help of the government's
massive computer model .of the U.S.
economy, Kendrick forecast a growth
rate of 5 per cent in the volume of total
economic cutout this year with the
possibility of "somewhat faster growth
through a tax rebate and other stimuli
That's a slower pace of growth than
the 6 per cent expected for 1979 as a
whole when the final figures are
tabulated. But that would still be an
improvement over the last half of 1976,
when economic growth was at annual
rates of 4.5 per cent for the July--
- September quarter and 3.9 per cent for
the final three months.
Kendrick estimated that even without
stimulus, growth should be strong
enough to cut unemployment, currently
at 8.1 per. cent, to an average of 7 per
- cent for the year.
He also cited several encouraging
factors on inflation: no major imbal-ances
between business inventories and
sales, no signs of materials bottlenecks
which -- fueled inflation in 1973, and
adequate excess industrial capacity to
absorb the expected growth in output .
without quickening the pace- - of
inflation.
Kendrick said current policies imply
.. slow progress in reducing the unem-ployment
rate after 1977.
- "This.would suggest the need for new
economic policies if the nation is to
return to relatively full employment by
1980' and simultaneously continue to --
unwind from inflation," he said.
Kendrick describes himself as an
independent politically. He assumed his
past at Commerce this summer on
leave from George Washington Uni-versity
in the capital.
Beyond the general economic outlook
for the nation, the Commerce review
assessed the prospects for 200 major
business sectors accounting for 85 per
cent of the nation's manufacturing
shipments.
The industry-by-industr- y breakdown,
which provided a more detailed mosaic
of which areas pf the nation might
sustain the slowest or fastest growth,
showed that for 91 of those sectors
production is expected to gain by more
than 10 per cent, or double the national
growth rate.
Although the- - honor of biggest
increase went to the relatively small
cottonseed oil muling industry with a 37
per cent jump forced, the Commerce
specialists also placed the vital con-struction,
auto, steel retail trade and
aerospace industries in tbe W per cent
or better category.

today
Exhibits
See today's Vibrations mst
xlne for continuing exhibit
schedules.
Monday
Exhibits
New: Klrtley Library,
Colombia College, 38 reproduc-tions
of paintings and drawings
by Pieter Bruegel, a 16th Century
Flemish painter, 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.
weekdays, 8 am. to 5 p.m.
Saturdays and 2 to 10 pjn.
Sundays. See today's Vibrations
for ccottnamg exhibit schedules.
Movie listings on page ISA
Insight
Dream game
captivates
sports fans
Nation's rhythm
will slow to halt
on Super Sunday
The Super Bowl is just a football
game, nothing more, nothing less.
--An NFLofficial
Just a game? Mythically speaking,
something mysterious and powerful is
going on here. -- v,
A theologian
ByJoaNordneimer
. N.Y. Times Service
LOS ANGELES - After 10 years,
America still hasn't made up its mind
about the Super Bowl.
Like other creations of a modern
society's mass communications
network, the concept has had more
appeal than its substance.
Ten times the league's championship
teams have met Ten times the nation
in ever-increasi- ng numbers has
gathered before television screens from.
KennybunkperttoHilo. Twtimethare ,. --
has been some measure of
disappointment that the ultimate
football game the dream game mat
such matchups of skill and brawn must
ultimately produce has once again
failed to materialize despite all the
publicity, prestige and pretxels that it
takes to produce a Super Sunday.
But the spectacle holds such potential
for drama and excellence that Super
Bowl XI will engage the rapt attention
of nearly half the nation and reach
others around the globe by radio and
television satellite.
When the Minnesota Vikings and
Oakland Raiders line up for the kickoff
at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena today,
the rhythm of midwinter America on a
Sunday afternoon will change.
The National Broadcasting Co.,
which is handling the telecast of the
game this year, has estimated that 75
million people will watch all or a
portion of the football contest
National Football League officials
suspect that this figure is low, based on
Gzed measurements of how many
viewers watch standard programs on
television. Viewing habits, they say,
change for the Super Bowl; the game
has become an American institution
mat brings people together socially --
before television sets in countless living --
rooms, hotels and bars and grills. An
estimated 30 million sets will carry the
game at its peak.
"1 wouldn't be surprised if 100 million
Americans, nearly one out of two,
actually watch at least part of the game
on Sunday," agreed oneNBC official.
For three hours or so, America will
move indoors and other aspects of
public life will slow down or stop.
Telephone traffic will decline during
the game except for the halftime break
when relatives, friends or business
associates will replay the first half over
the phone. Airlines will have lighter
passenger loads while the game is on,
while some jumbo jets on
transcontinental flights will pick up the
Super Bowl television signal from
ground stations along the route.
Attendance at tourist attractions like
(See SUPER BOWL, page MA)
69th Year - No. 94 Good Morning! It's Sunday, Jan. 9, 1 977 4 Sections - 48 I'ugeN - 35 Cents
- --- ... .. ..
From our wire services
PLAINS, Ga. President-elec- t
Jimmy Carter said Saturday he will
send Vice President-elec- t Walter
Mondale on a get-acquaint- ed trip to
Europe ami Japan during the first week
of the Carter administration.
The President-ele- ct said he himself
probably will attend an economic
summit meeting of the world's indus-trialized
democracies this year,
possibly in late May or June.
Carter said be still intends to mini
mize his own travel in the first year of
his administration but would make an
exception for the economic summit.
Carter also said he "kely will meet
with Soviet party leader Leonid
Brezhnev sometime before next fall
and hopes by that time to have achieved
"substantial" progress on a new
strategic arms limitation treaty.
Carter talked to reporters at a chilly
outdoor news conference on the lawn of
his home.
He touched briefly on the economic
stimulus program he unveiled Friday
BHBBSUmHaSJHXMHiMSHDHHgBnnMHMBnHHBMtfMfl
and said low- - and middle-incom- e
Americans should get their 1976 tax
rebate checks soon after Congress
approves the plan.
"I don't foresee any problem in
getting the rebate checks out rapidly,"
he said.
Carter also said he has not yet
decided the exact terms of his promised
pardon of Vietnam draft evaders, but
he might expand it to cover deserters
and some categories of dishonorable
dischargees.
He said the purpose of the Mondale
trip is to let America's closest allies
"know in some detail what I and the
United States Congress propose to do
about the stimulation of our economy.
"In addition to that, he will explore
with them better means by which we
might coordinate our NATO policies,
deal with the problems of the increased
oil prices, and also share with them
some of our potential plans at that point
for helping to resolve the potential
problems surrounding Cyprus and
Turkey and Greece, the Middle East,
and of course the southern Africa
question."
Mondale, who expects to return to
Washington about Feb. 1, is hitting the
foreign travel trail earUer than any
other vice president in recent history.
President Kennedy dispatched
Lyndon Johnson to Senegal and Paris in
April 1961, three months after his
inauguration. Four years later, as
president, Johnson sent then Vice
President Hubert Humphrey to Pans in
June. In 1969 President Nixon sent
Spiro Agnew to the Far East, but not
until late December.
Icicles hanging from a rooftop become part of a peaceful landscape in the still of the night
Winds to howl; temperatures to plunge
By Jan Smith
Missourian staff writer
Mid-Missouria- ns, still digging out
from last week's 7 inches (17.5 centi-meters)
of snow, now face wind-chi-ll
factors plunging as low as --30
degrees F (-- 35 C) tonight and fierce
northerly winds which could cause
snowdrifts.
The wind-chi- ll factor also was pre--
dieted to hit --30 F (-- 35 C) Saturday
night.
"People involved in any outside
activity would be wise to cover any
Weather details en page 14A
exposed flesh. The subzero wind-chi- ll
factor could cause rapid frost-bite
or frozen tissue," said Russ
Martin, National Weather Service
specialist.
Wind-chi- ll factors combine the
temperature and the wind speed to
quantify the cooling power the
weather has on exposed flesh, said
Delbert Porter, weather service
specialist.
Columbia's bitter wind-chi- ll factor
is the result of winds blowing from 10
to 20 miles-p- er hour (16 to 33
kilometers per hour) and tempera- -
tures ranging from a predicted high
of 5F (-- 15 C) today to --5 to -- 10 F (-- lto
--23 C) tonight.
A cold front passed through the
Columbia area Saturday morning,
moving from northwest Missouri
toward the southeast part of the
state. Accompanying the front were
strong northerly winds and cold
(See MORE SNOW, page 16A)
Bad weather blamedfor deaths, injuries
By United Press International
Sand trucks and salters Saturday
followed plows along New England , roadways, clogged by abandoned
cars and up to 20 inches (50 centi-meters)
of snow from a winter
storm. A cold air mass crept south-ward
through the Midwest, and a
new winter storm moved into the
Southwest
New England counted six
weather-relate- d deaths in what the
National Weather Service called a
"severe winter storm" over the area
Friday.
Only snow flurries remained of the
storm in which winds of up to 92
miles an hour (147 kilometers per
hour) were clocked at Cape Cod,
Mass. But the winter winds curtailed
the search for survivors from the
Panamanian tanker Grand Zenith,
lost at sea with its crewof 38.
Three persons, all unconscious,
were rescued from a stalled auto-mobile
covered with snow at
Weymouth, Mass., after the driver
used a citizens' band radio to
summon help that came on a snow-mobile.
A police spokesman said an
alert was sent out on CB for
"anybody in snowmobiles to help us
and we got some responses."
The dead in New England included
two heart attack victims after
exertion in snow, a snowmobiler
whose vehicle went over a 45-fo- ot
(13.5-mete- r) ledge, an auto accident
victim on a snowy road, a youth
killed by a snow plow and an elderly
man dead of exposure and found
under snow after collapsing in his
yard.
Russian charged in espionage case
From our wire services
NEWARK, NJ. A former Soviet
seaman was held without bond
Saturday on charges of conspiring to
pass classified documents about the
American space program to a Soviet
official.
Ivan Rogalsky, a 34-year-- old unem-ployed
mechanic, was held in the
Bergen County Jail on espionage.
charges punishable by death. He was
represented by a public defender at bis
arraignment Saturday morning before
U.S. Magistrate William J. Hunt.
Rogalsky was arrested Friday night
in rural Lakewood Township. He had in
his possession a classified document
from an RCA Corp. research center
that works on top secret communica-tions
satellites and defense projects.
The FBI complaint portrayed Rogal- -
sky as a patient espionage agent who
tried to cultivate a U.S. contact to feed
him vital American defense secrets.
The information was passed to
Yevgeniy Karpov, a member of the
Soviet intelligence network posing as
part of the Russian delegation to the
United Nations.
As second secretary of the Soviet
- mission at the UJNJ., Karpov has diplo-matic
immunity and cannot be arrested
by U.S. authorities. He can, however,
be asked to leave the country.
Authorities said Rogalsky had been
under surveillance for six months
before his arrest They said he held
nearly a dozen meetings with Paul S.
Nekrasov, an RCA engineer who was
secretly cooperating with the FBI.
After many of the meetings,
Rogalsky reported to Karpov, the FBI
said.
Flexibility
important
to Carter
That led to idea
for 2-ye- ar plan
By Eileen Shanahan
N.Y. Times Service
WASHINGTON - President-elec- t
Carter and his economic policy
advisers decided on a two-ye- ar
program of economic stimulus, with a
total price tag of $25 billion to $32
billion, because they feared that a one-ye- ar
program, even one costing up to
$20 billion, might not be adequate to get
the economy back onto a solid growth
path.
This and other details of how the
economic-stimulu- s package was put
together, and why, were disclosed in
interviews Saturday with some of those
who played key roles in shaping the
package.
Thededsion to spread the economic
stimulus over two years evolved
gradually, according to participants.
In addition to their fears that a one-ye- ar
program might prove inadequate,
they were motivated by a desire
partly generated by congressional
pressure to include substantial
public works, public jobs and job-traini- ng
programs in the package.
Carter's advisers soon realized it
simply was not possible to efficiently
spend even as much as $5 billion on
public works programs by the end of
the current fiscal year because
expansion of public works programs
and job-traini- ng programs takes time.
So the Carter circle junked the
concept presented to Carter and to a
key group of business executives Dec.
9, of a $20 billion stimulus package for
fiscal 1977.
To include a substantial volume of
public works and public service
employment the program had to be
extended into fiscal 1978.
The two-ye- ar package also could be
kept flexible, pleasing Charles L.
Schultze, the chairman-designat- e of the
Council of Economic Advisers.
He is reported to have argued for the
two-ye- ar program but wanted the
option of cancelling some of the second-ye-ar
spending.
For this reason, the planned $4 billion
addition to the present $2 billion public
works construction program will be
implemented in two sections, with the
option of cancelling the second part.
Bert Lance, the budget director-designat- e,
was instructed by Carter at
the Thursday meeting to search for an
additional $2 billion in budget cuts in
other governmental programs that
could be put into effect in fiscal 1978.
Even if Congress acts quickly on the
whole Carter package, as is expected,
the accompanying change in
withholding rates, which would
mainly affect those with incomes
between $5,000 and $15,000, would
probably not take effect until about
Mayl.
U.S. economic growth to slow this year
. WASHINGTON (AP) - The rate of
growth in the economy this year will
probably be slower than that of last
year, the Commerce Department said
Saturday, Bat it added the growth
should be enough to reduce unemploy-ment
vrttbout stimulating iaflatiou.
The broad economic assessment was
given by chief economist John W.
Kendrick as part of the agency 's annual
industrial outlook publication. It was
written before President-ele- ct Carter
unveiled, his SSO-Wlli-da economic
stimuluflpackageFriday. "
Kendrick said the rise in consumer
prices in 1977 is projected to remajn
close to last year's gain of less than 6
percent
With the help of the government's
massive computer model .of the U.S.
economy, Kendrick forecast a growth
rate of 5 per cent in the volume of total
economic cutout this year with the
possibility of "somewhat faster growth
through a tax rebate and other stimuli
That's a slower pace of growth than
the 6 per cent expected for 1979 as a
whole when the final figures are
tabulated. But that would still be an
improvement over the last half of 1976,
when economic growth was at annual
rates of 4.5 per cent for the July--
- September quarter and 3.9 per cent for
the final three months.
Kendrick estimated that even without
stimulus, growth should be strong
enough to cut unemployment, currently
at 8.1 per. cent, to an average of 7 per
- cent for the year.
He also cited several encouraging
factors on inflation: no major imbal-ances
between business inventories and
sales, no signs of materials bottlenecks
which -- fueled inflation in 1973, and
adequate excess industrial capacity to
absorb the expected growth in output .
without quickening the pace- - of
inflation.
Kendrick said current policies imply
.. slow progress in reducing the unem-ployment
rate after 1977.
- "This.would suggest the need for new
economic policies if the nation is to
return to relatively full employment by
1980' and simultaneously continue to --
unwind from inflation," he said.
Kendrick describes himself as an
independent politically. He assumed his
past at Commerce this summer on
leave from George Washington Uni-versity
in the capital.
Beyond the general economic outlook
for the nation, the Commerce review
assessed the prospects for 200 major
business sectors accounting for 85 per
cent of the nation's manufacturing
shipments.
The industry-by-industr- y breakdown,
which provided a more detailed mosaic
of which areas pf the nation might
sustain the slowest or fastest growth,
showed that for 91 of those sectors
production is expected to gain by more
than 10 per cent, or double the national
growth rate.
Although the- - honor of biggest
increase went to the relatively small
cottonseed oil muling industry with a 37
per cent jump forced, the Commerce
specialists also placed the vital con-struction,
auto, steel retail trade and
aerospace industries in tbe W per cent
or better category.