The Daily Lard 11-14-11

Douglas LeeNov 14, 2011 7:20 AM

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Last week, the Broncos wore out a college play and rode it to a divisional road win. Yesterday, they employed the high school strategy of running the ball 87% of the time in a road division game, and it worked - Denver won at Arrowhead 17-10 (box score). What will they do on Thursday night when the Jets come to town? Punt on third down? Who cares, right? After all, the Broncos are just a game below .500 now and that same margin behind the first-place Raiders (5-4), tied with the Chargers and Chiefs at 4-5.

In case it wasn't abundantly clear after Tim Tebow did not attempt a single pass during the fourth quarter in Oakland with the game on the line, yesterday absolutely confirmed that John Fox and Mike McCoy do not trust their young QB to throw the ball. It was a record-setting day in that regard: in 51.5 seasons of Broncos football, the team had never attempted fewer than 11 passes in a game; yesterday Tebow threw eight passes and completed two of them. This marked just the third time Denver had as few as two pass completions in a game; the first two instances were in 1966 and 1967, both blowout losses. Denver's 55 rushing attempts were their most since twice topping that figure in 1978.

BUT, one of those completions was a beautiful 56-yard deep strike to Eric Decker with just under seven minutes to play in the game and largely sealed the victory for Denver (He made an NFL throw, which means he can someday be a 60-65% passer, right?). The Broncos ran for 244 yards a week after putting up 298 rushing yards in Oakland, starting yesterday's game with 14 straight carries and rushing 38 times before Tebow completed his first pass, a smoke route to Matt Don't Call Me Matthew Anymore Willis.

Meanwhile, the Denver defense sacked Matt Cassel four times and registered 12 QB hits on Cassel and his late replacement Tyler Palko; super rookie Von Miller now has eight sacks in nine games, and the Broncos held the Chiefs to 124 net passing yards and 258 overall net yards. The two teams combined for just four plays of over 20 yards - three by Denver and one by Kansas City. In other words, if all you watched were the highlights from Broncos TV, NFLN, or GameDay, then you'll have seen about everything you needed to have seen.

Let's give credit where it's due though, why don't we? John Fox knows he can't win ballgames by calling for passes. He knows his quarterback can't throw within a zip code of his targets, so Fox has turned a team that hadn't run consistently well in six years into one that can gain five yards a pop even when everyone in the building and watching on TV knows it's coming. He also happened to hire a fine young defensive coordinator and the FO supplied them with an elite talent in Von Miller. It also appears at this point that Fox made a stellar hire in ST coordinator Jeff Rodgers, as the Broncos are a consistent threat in the return game for the first time since Darrien Gordon. Can't pass, so you get it done by running the ball, playing tough defense and winning the special teams battle. Now, can this work on Thursday and beyond? We'll see...

Broncos

Mike Klis recaps the victory, plus notes from the DP and Andrew Mason: Knowshon Moreno is expected to miss Thursday's game and will have an MRI today to determine the extent of his knee injury, while Willis McGahee strained a hamstring and may be able to play against the Jets. Plus, Brady Quinn was again the #2 QB ahead of Kyle Orton yesterday.

J-E-T-S

New England coasted to a 37-16 win against the Jets, getting three TD passes from Tom Brady and a pick-six of the Sanchize in the process.

You know who's dumb? The Sanchize, that's who. He called a timeout with 1:24 left in the first half on third-and-goal from the two and plenty of time left on the play clock. The problem wasn't the timeout; it helped the Jets make the proper call and score on the next play. But failing to run the clock down before taking it left enough time for Brady to drive the Pats down the field for a TD of their own.

I happen to hate the Jets, personally. Why? I've lived in Jets Land my whole life, and nothing speaks to that more than the animated GIF atop this post at KSK.

Trimmings

New Orleans beat Atlanta 26-23 after stuffing the Falcons on a 4th-and-1 from the minus-30 in overtime. Interestingly, the EPV favors the decision made by Atlanta HC Mike Smith, while Andy Benoit wonders why the Falcons didn't use a QB sneak on the play.

Tennessee destroyed Carolina 30-3 as CJ2K busted out for 177 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.

After notching just four takeaways in nine games, the Steelers picked off Andy Dalton twice in the fourth quarter to help them beat the Bengals 24-17. To make matters worse for Cincy, they lost CB Andre Hall for the season with a torn Achilles.

The Rams held on for a narrow 13-12 victory after the Browns botched the snap on a potential go-ahead 22-yard FG in the closing minutes.

Dallas pummeled the visiting Bills 44-7 in a manner not unlike the teams' two SB matchups.

Jacksonville handed winless Indy their tenth loss of the season 17-3 thanks to 137 yards from scrimmage and a TD by MJD.

Miami won their second-straight game after an 0-7 start, defeating the woeful Redskins and Rex Grossman 20-9.

Arizona stunned the Eagles 21-17 as John Skelton threw three TD passes and Philly blew their 5th fourth-quarter lead of the year. CHFF's Shaun Church reacts.

Houston maintained their two-game lead over the Titans by whipping Tampa Bay 37-9 as Arian Foster posted 186 YFS and two scores.

Baltimore suffered yet another crushing loss, this time to the lowly Seahawks, 22-17 in Seattle.

Chicago's defense picked off four Matthew Stafford passes and took two of them back for scores, while Devin Hester tallied his 12th career punt return TD as the Bears mauled the Lions 37-13. Stafford is apparently a sorehead, although he did play the game despite having a fracture in his throwing hand.

The Niners held on for a 27-20 victory over the visiting Giants, who converted two fourth-down passes on their final drive but failed on their third attempt.

Scrapple

Matt Bowen's notes from the early and late games, plus Andy Benoit, Will Brinson, CHFF, Pat Kirwan and Eric Edholm analyze Sunday's action. Bowen says the Broncos resembled a high school team yesterday, and that Tebow must pass the ball for the team to sustain its success. Benoit says the Broncos used 16 option plays and is baffled that KC allowed 95 yards on them, and he credits John Fox for the team's game plan. Kirwan thinks the Broncos will let Tebow run it 20 times in a game at some point (perhaps Thursday?).

Mike Silver, Peter King, Clark Judge, Jason Cole, Don Banks and John Clayton wrap up the day's games, plus MJD's best (John Fox) and worst players from Sunday. Banks wonders if the Broncos just might have the "best winning formula" of any team in the AFC West, and yesterday apparently marked his Come to Tebow moment, as he thinks maybe Tim's just a winner. PK thinks the Broncos should just "ride the wave."

Brian Burke has presented us with a gift that will always be giving, in the form of a 4th Down Calculator which will tell us all of the statistical factors for a fourth-down decision. Maybe someday we'll see Jim Schwartz using it on the sideline, haha. Or, perhaps Mike Smith already has this stuff memorized...

In case you're mad about Matt Prater's FG miss yesterday, there were plenty of more glaring whiffs around the league yesterday.

@john hilton - Great post and agree with almost everything you said except for 1. the receivers aren&#8217t getting open and 2. they should let Tebow go back to his old throwing motion.

The really good QBs in the league don&#8217t need their guys to be open and routinely &#8220throw guys open&#8221. I watch so many games where Rodgers, Manning, and Brees hit a guy that I don&#8217t think is actually open. I&#8217m pretty sure Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver don&#8217t get open on the Broncos. There are tons of times where Jennings disappears from games for long stretches because he&#8217s not getting open even with Aaron Rodgers. Likewise, Eddie Royal hasn&#8217t really been open since Jay Cutler left town.

I also think some of the reason why our passing offense has looked bad, and I don&#8217t really see it mentioned anywhere, is DT replacing Lloyd. Lloyd knew the offense in and out and was our clear #1. You basically have a rookie who has been injured for the past year and a half who doesn&#8217t know the offense that well.

On point #2, I feel like telling him to go back to his old throwing motion is bad. His throwing motion isn&#8217t permanently screwed up - he looks good in stretches. He&#8217s in the process of getting that deliberate practice in that he needs in order to improve and get to where he needs to be. Derailing that process would be horrible and would be detrimental to the team&#8217s success longterm. Secondly, in order to go from good QB to great QB, it&#8217s almost always working on footwork and mechanics - Aaron Rodgers had inaccuracy problems his first year or two and worked really hard on his mechanics and footwork and has reaped the benefits. Finally, why would you sacrifice longterm development so that it looks a little nicer in the short term or he completes a few more passes? If we were a contender and that would put us over the top, I get it. Since we&#8217re not actually going anywhere, this whole season should be about being competitive, building a winning culture, and deliberately practicing and improving - that includes taking the ugly with Tebow and understanding that it&#8217s 2 steps back to take 10 steps forward rather than just take 3 steps forward immediately.

I&#8217ve been critical of the play-calling for that very reason. Because I understood the implications of this offense, I saw where it would ultimately lead - to a power running game being run out of spread formations where your passing game could still encompass spread concepts. I was worried that Fox and McCoy would never get there - but it seems they now understand what can be done in the running game with Tebow and why it works (as John Hilton described above). The key now is to add in the passing - which I&#8217m not that worried about as I know some opponent will sell out to defend the run and they&#8217ll make us pass - Elway&#8217s quotes confirm this to me. I tend to think Tebow has what it takes based on his performance at Florida and his work ethic. The hard part is recognizing the power of the zone read (it was really obvious if you watched last year&#8217s Tebow plays), knowing it&#8217s unconventional, and trying to make it a staple of your offense - and we&#8217ve made that leap (thank god).

The chance to run this type of an offense, to give the rest of the year to Tebow to work on his passing and then the evaluation process that follows at the end of the season on whether he&#8217s made enough progress and whether he will become successful enough at passing to make this offense a reality is all any fan can hope for. If it doesn&#8217t work out, I won&#8217t question the commitment from the coaching staff.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-15 01:51:34

Piper,

I can assure you (and will swear on a stack of Tebow&#8217s bibles) that prospector and I are not the same person.

I&#8217m housebroken.

Posted by TJ Johnson on 2011-11-14 19:51:00

My last TT comment but I think an important one. When looking at his stats one very important one from a development perspective jumps out. Completion % by number of pass attempts. In 2011, here is TT&#8217s completion % by pass attempts:

Attempts 1 - 10 of the game: 31.3%

Attempts 11 - 20 of the game: 50.0%

Attempts 21 - 30 of the game: 61.1%

Attempts 31 - 40 of the game: 67.7%

Still too small a sample size when compared to older QBs to draw a conclusion, but the Debbie Downers who suggest that TT can&#8217t throw or won&#8217t be successful may want to hold up a little. Maybe he (like every other young QB) just needs the reps.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-14 19:14:24

yesterday absolutely confirmed that John Fox and Mike McCoy do not trust their young QB to throw the ball

I would agree that IF Fox and McCoy did not trust their young QB to throw the ball, then you could expect to see a game plan full of running attempts and almost no passing attempts. That&#8217s a matter of A implies B.

However, A implies B does not mean B implies A.

There are a series of questions you can ask yourself when determining if a cause really and truly is solely responsible for an effect. I don&#8217t believe you are using the effect to prove the cause - you aren&#8217t saying &#8220Fox/McCoy don&#8217t trust their young QB to throw the ball, therefore yesterday happened as it did&#8221, because you would have to then prove Fox/McCoy feel that way. Instead, you&#8217re saying &#8220Yesterday happened as it did, therefore Fox/McCoy do not trust their young QB to throw the ball.&#8221

Here are some questions you can ask yourself to check assumptions:

1) Can A cause B?

2) Is A sufficient to cause B?

3) Is (all of) A necessary to cause B?

4) What else causes A?

5) What else does A cause?

The one that really jumps out is #4. What else, other than Fox/McCoy&#8217s distrust of Tebow&#8217s passing, could cause the game plan? Well, there are a lot of answers but I&#8217ll leave those as an exercise for Douglas.

Posted by tunesmith on 2011-11-14 18:48:30

Chris Harris has got to be the best find of the off season. How did this kid go un-drafted??

Posted by bradley on 2011-11-14 18:29:45

Interesting factoid from yesterday:

There were 12 missed field goals, as well as a missed extra point, and a made field goal that was called back because of a holding penalty.

So maybe Prater&#8217s whiff can be forgiven.

(I apologize for not mentioning Tebow)

Posted by bradley on 2011-11-14 18:25:24

bfree - you mean like how AJ Green bailed out Dalton on that underthrow into double coverage for a TD against the Steelers?? You hit it on the head, it&#8217s a team game and how each player performs is influenced by how his teammates do their respective jobs. That doesn&#8217t excuse anything that TT can/should do to be an effective long term QB, or any mistakes that he made, of course.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-14 18:07:16

Doug, it isn&#8217t Tebow&#8217s fault McCoy only rang up 8 passing plays in the game. I have a issue with the receivers not fighting enough to make the catch and let us count the ones that should have been caught. Eddie Royal has a problem of letting a defender massage his arm during a route to squelch his concentration to catch a &#8220CATCHABLE&#8221 ball! Eric Decker if you would have missed that last pass fof the TD, you&#8217d be better off slinking away and hiding under a bench somewhere along the sidelines. Dude, you let Carr who is a subpar player to Flowers at the least keep you who had position on the ball, miss it? Really? really? R-E-A-L-L-Y??? How about helping you team out there fella and make the catch. We might have gotten anoth TD down there fool!

Lance Ball! Why even run out to the edge if your not going to catch the ball in your chest? Plzzzzzzz child catch the damn ball.

So there you have at least three passes that should have been caught and might have had an impact on the game. That would have given Tebow 5/8 on the day which is over 60% right? nah, it&#8217s all Tebow&#8217s fault&#8230Pfft&#8230

Posted by bfree2bronc on 2011-11-14 17:59:07

TOP domination. There were 14 games yesterday. The winning team had a TOP differential equal to or greater than Denver&#8217s in 7 of them.

But I hear that the KC defensive backs made plays, unlike any other defensive backs ever.

Ladies and gentlemen, this week&#8217s worst team in football, the Kansas City Chiefs!

Cassell was lucky to not have thrown 2 picks, and he was positively brutalized all day. But pay no attention to the men behind the curtain, our defense, who are reaping the benefits of T.O.P. domination. They deserve it, and are showing their appreciation with some wood-laying conviction. I fully expect Sanchez to be similarly hammered on Thursday. This isn&#8217t about Tebow&#8217s arm, it&#8217s about our O-line gelling and our pass rush physically harming the opposing QB.

And Christ, how about that punting clinic yesterday? Who is better than those brothers?

Did D. Thomas even suit-up?

Detroit were victims of karma last night getting killed by the bears. You don&#8217t lambeau leap on the road and not pay for it&#8230

Posted by Johnny Denver on 2011-11-14 17:43:46

Piper, it&#8217s not that TT shouldn&#8217t be graded along the same lines as any other young QB, it&#8217s that some folks&#8217 criteria for making such judgments are pretty questionable. There are some here (and elsewhere) that will look at TT through rose-colored glasses, and others through poo-colored glasses, no matter what happens. To me for this game he gets an &#8220Incomplete&#8221 grade - 8 pass attempts is too small a sample to grade any QB&#8217s game performance. That won&#8217t stop anyone from using the game to feed their confirmation bias, sadly.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-14 17:42:05

Sometimes, prospector actually says something that makes sense: &#8220Tebow will not be on the team next year, the writing is on the wall.&#8221

Last week, TJ commented he misses prospector. Sure enough, prospector reappears. Know what? I&#8217ve taken a red pill and know for a FACT that prospector is TJ&#8217s secret identity.

Posted by Piper A R on 2011-11-14 17:28:45

Stop being so negative, Chi. Don&#8217t you know that Tebow is unlike any other QB in the NFL, and therefore shouldn&#8217t be graded like the other QBs in the NFL. Passes like the TD to Decker are A for awesome. All the other passes get B grades, for becoming awesome.

Maybe St Tim is a pioneer that will break down the barriers for running QBs with below adequate arms. Sadly, it&#8217s too late for Tommie Frazier, Scott Frost, and Eric Crouch. But Vince Young may yet be saved.

Right now our receivers aren&#8217t good at making a play on the ball. If it&#8217s not perfectly placed in the hands it&#8217s dropped. ( Man I miss B. Lloyd ). Do any of you haters remember last years offense? The plays that tebow passes well off of? He is amazing at throwing all the screen passes. They are a high % pass. Where are they? What about short hook passes, slants, TE drags? Think about how easy Fox has made the passing game to defend. All you need to worry about is the deep outs, and the occassional deep posts. That&#8217s it. No 5 to 10 yard middle passes. No screens. No slants. This insane. They all you media Parrots say &#8221 He can&#8217t throw! &#8220. With this play calling Joe Montana would be struggling. The coach clearly is not trying to build Tebow&#8217s confidence. Look at Dalton & McCoy. All they throw is short stuff with the occassional deep pass. We are opposite. Then I hear McCoy say that he wants his QB to complete 65% of his passes, and then he calls low percentage routes. This is complete B/S. They were calling deep routes during a game with high winds. Tebow still placed the ball in position for his WR&#8217s to make a play, but they didn&#8217t.

It is crystal clear tha FOX is setting Tebow up to fail. I mean running the ball on third and long, to set up a punt. Come on man. Tebow has only thrown 1 pick. That is good by any standard. He is throwing the ball away alot, and there never is a dump off option for him. It&#8217s either deep or go home. No rb or TE in position for a dump off if the deep pass is covered. He either has to make an amazing throw or throw it away. Yeah that&#8217s great for the STAT line. Tebow will not be on the team next year, the writing is on the wall. And all you haters, are falling for the charade hook line and sinker. All you do is look at the stats without taking into consideration play calling. Lame very Lame. However guess what? Tebow has won three road games in a row. Do you know how hard that is for a young player? And he has thrown a TD pass in every start. Despite the lame pass plays that are called for him. Did you experts forget how good Tebow is in the 2 minute offense? How did Manning do for NY yesterday when the game was on the line? Oh he had his 4th down pass batted down. Tebow would have made the play. Go ahead and keep spewing your lame analysis, and Tebow will keep winning.

Posted by prospector1 on 2011-11-14 17:01:54

Tough to really grade any QB when all they throw is 8 passes. Yeah, #15 only completed two of them. But a few others once again hit the freakin&#8217 receivers in the hands and could of been caught.

Space Cowboy hit in on the money earlier: No Lloyd and Gafney has really hurt the situation.

Posted by Gristle McThornbody on 2011-11-14 16:49:43

@John #19 - best comment of the day. I absolutely agree with all your points.

There has to be some point when Gase should give up on the new throwing motion and just have Tebow go back to what worked for him as a Gator. TT set multiple passing records in college after all. However, with the success of the running game lately I think Tebow has plenty more time to work on it.

Posted by JoePlummer on 2011-11-14 16:46:18

Chibronx, that link made my morning. Thanks for pointing it out Dude.

Posted by jimb on 2011-11-14 16:46:18

I guess my question is, if the Broncos coaching staff suposedly doesn&#8217t have faith in Tebow as a passer, why do they (after a 3rd and 6 turns into a 3rd and 11 via penalty) let him drop back and throw when they still have the lead, and have been running on 3rd and long all game long? Not to mention a punter who&#8217s been pinning a team inside the 20 all day. Maybe it was just as Fox said yesterday, the running game was working, so no need to go away from it. That play call on 3rd and 11 was the perfect call and perfectly executed by all 11 guys. Can&#8217t wait for Thursday. Our TEAM is winning.

Posted by KevanB on 2011-11-14 16:46:11

On top of the fantastic pressure Von Miller was getting all game, how about that TD he saved? The Chefs broke a big run up the left sideline and had made it past the safety. Von ran from the opposite side of the line all the way down to make a viscious tackle. Simply amazing.

Love the way our defense is playing right now.

Doug, I know you&#8217re just adding a little snark, but to say Tebow wasn&#8217t in the zipcode is what is stirring the pot.

Also, Eddie Royal needs to catch that sideline pass. A little contact completely made him break his stride. This is where we miss Lloyd, and even Gaffney. In fact, Eddie Royal needs to start catching passes period (catches where he doesn&#8217t have 10 yds of separation). If he can&#8217t start catching more tough balls, then cut Cosby and sign Royal up for punt return duty.where he really excels.

Is Prater just over-kicking? That ball almost cleared the netting. Maybe he should focus on accuracy and not MPH?

Look, they are just running the OG Gators playbook: &#8220Tebow left, Tebow Right, Tebow up the gut&#8221

Posted by SpaceCowboy on 2011-11-14 16:02:46

In all the attention on Tebow and the obsession with number of passes, etc., what was lost in the shuffle with some (I haven&#8217t read all the articles yet) of the coverage of the game and the Broncos as of late in general is: 1) The defense continues to improve and be a big part of why the Broncos are winning more games lately, both the play and the playcalling by Allen to take advantage of the D&#8217s strengths and cover up its weaknesses. Von Miller is leading the charge, but other guys are stepping up too (including Chris Harris who is such a find). 2) They won the MFing game with their top two running backs injured early. I mean, does anyone think the score would have been merely 17-10 after watching McGahee and Moreno (and Tebow ) run roughshod over the Chiefs in those early drives? Again, the Broncos are covering their weaknesses (pass blocking, passing) and playing to strength right now and it&#8217s working. And it would have worked more impressively had they not had the horrible luck of two straight crucial injuries.

If McGahee can play in the Thursday game I&#8217ll feel more optimistic about that one.

Posted by underdog on 2011-11-14 15:47:23

@ Justin

Totally agree. This was what I was saying in comment 19.

Posted by John Hilton on 2011-11-14 15:44:19

Doug,

Not to nitpick (and distract from the nonstop Tebow argument), but it was Leon Hall that was lost for the season in CIN, not Andre.

Posted by jakehoban on 2011-11-14 15:38:58

I haven&#8217t had time to read all the comments, but I just had one thought to share:

I hear and see a lot of media talking about how the game plan was tailored to fit Tebow and disguise his weakness as a passer.

While partially true, it&#8217s not the whole story. I think this game plan helps disguise the weaknesses of the whole team.

The O-line is much better at run blocking than pass blocking right now. Orlando Franklin would&#8217ve been eaten alive by Hali had we thrown it 30 times.

The receivers have had trouble separating and this extreme imbalance in play calling - in theory - should&#8217ve helped them get separation. It also helped to get the ball into the hands of Eddie Royal who can be dynamic, but he has been having trouble in the passing game.

This game plan also allows Demaryius Thomas to contribute. I think he&#8217s been having as much trouble as anyone at learning the playbook, but running something similar to what he ran in college helps out. He didn&#8217t catch a pass, but I saw some good blocks from him. Soon, when he&#8217s healthy enough, we might see him go over the top just like his college days.

The game plan also shortened the game and minimized losses in field position. Colquitt had the Chiefs inside their 10 a lot. This allowed our defense to stay fresh and play their best game yet.

So I have to give props to the coaching staff. This is just adapting to Tebow. It&#8217s adapting to almost everyone.

Posted by Justin on 2011-11-14 15:36:43

This 15 thing is really getting tiresome. Not saying his name is not going to make the Tebow fatigue go away.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2011-11-14 15:27:42

You know it is always an interesting morning after these wins. Tebow didn&#8217t throw the ball much, but the Broncos won the game in KC! Yes 15 had a couple of the passes that were marginal along with an ugly throw. But quit excusing receivers from not catching the damn ball! I am not going to lay it on 15 for not making a catch on a ball that hits you in the hands. I thought that is why you are in the NFL getting paid to catch the ball. Where the hell is D Thomas, was he on the field and if he was why has he disappeared? Do I want the Broncos to pass the ball more hell yes, but is that more important then a win? Over the last few years under he who shall not be named everyone clamored and lamented for the vaunted Broncos running scheme. Now you have a team that can run the ball down the throat of teams that know it is coming, but we choose to whine about not throwing the ball enough.

Hats off to Dennis Allen, you have to like what he has done with Von and the defense up to this point. When is the last time we all saw the Broncos with an actual defense. I don&#8217t know about you but I can&#8217t wait to see what Allen has up his sleeve to welcome Sanchez to Denver. Go Broncos!

Posted by tom3565 on 2011-11-14 15:20:23

I also agree with Jimb.

I still want Tebow to complete over 50% of his passes. What I do like about Tebow&#8217s passing is that he is not hurting the team with forcing passes the way Cutler did. So I don&#8217t know if its better to have a QB that is not confident enough to try the difficult throws or one that is over confident and throws as many interceptions as he does great throws. Comparing QBs at similar point in their careers.

I would like to see Denver come out throwing against the Jets. Everybody and their mothers think Denver is going to run so what better time to throw? To answer my own question, running the ball takes New York&#8217s best player, Revis. out of the game. i also think Kansas City made some halftime adjustments and Denver didn&#8217t run as well in the second half. The defense is suppose to tire in the second half and open up the running game even more but that didn&#8217t happen. They won&#8217t win running like they did in the second half. Sanchez was pretty good on the quick throws but when he had to drop back he looked worse than Cassel. I think Denver&#8217s defense can handle the Jets offense but I don&#8217t know if Denver&#8217s offense can have success against the Jets.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-11-14 15:14:15

Come on jimb I don&#8217t see the negativity. Haven&#8217t seen one person post who wasn&#8217t pleased with the game. I suppose anything but Tebow is awesome and he&#8217s the undisputed long term QB is negative. I fully understand how Tebow contributes to the running game but you can&#8217t argue that a real QB that makes the defense respect the pass won&#8217t also help the run and be better for the overall offense.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2011-11-14 15:04:59

I find it truly humorous. Coming off a 4-12 season and the #2 pick in the draft, some find themselves with angst and pending doom because of HOW we are winning.

Did anyone read the tweets from the players after the game? All were EXTREMELY excited about the win, how it was a TEAM win and how they did it for &#8220Mile High country&#8221. Why can&#8217t we as fans enjoy it in the same manner?

We win two road games in back to back weeks against division rivals and we aren&#8217t ecstatic? We&#8217re going to worry about how the game was won? Really? We were 4-12 last yr.

Maybe we now can just move beyond the 15 issue. He&#8217s one contributing member on the team, but not the epicenter. This team is getting much better fast thanks to every player. Our defense is turning it around amazingly. Top 15 defense right now IMO - which you have to sit and ponder where were just 10 regular season games ago. Our OL has in 4 games made our running the best in the NFL. We&#8217re doing this with 3 OL that are rookies or 2nd yr guys. We have not had to rely on the passing game BECAUSE of our running game yet in the passing game we have a stud WR who&#8217s just in his 2nd yr (and not much else right now).

This is old school football. It has been a recipe for success in the past, and it&#8217s working pretty well now. Will it win every game, no. But the players are enjoying winning, we should too.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-11-14 15:02:10

Man, the Knowshon injury hurts. I love that guy&#8217s skill set, and can only hope he finds a way to stay healthy. His technique in the open field is wondrous.

Posted by Chibronx on 2011-11-14 14:58:37

The Broncos Ol&#8217 West Rootin-Tootin Novelty Show is the best amusement I&#8217ve run across since this (http://tinyurl.com/y9oc3m2). And that washed-up cowboy John Fox is having one hell of a second act.

I actually saw a headline that said &#8220Tebow Wins 17-10.&#8221 He didn&#8217t run particularly well, and he completed two passes. This is effing hilarious. The headline might as well have said &#8220Zane Beadles wins&#8221 or &#8220Brodrick Bunkley wins&#8221 or &#8220Chris Harris wins.&#8221 Von Miller was the best player on the field the last two games the Broncos played, and it wasn&#8217t even close. That&#8217s an awesome development, and it has no more to do with the QB than does the 68-degree day on the shores of Lake Michigan yesterday.

Reading the game thread yesterday, I learned that wind, good DB play, bad WR play, substandard blocking and poor playcalling explain Timmeh&#8217s horrible passing. Guys, those things apply to EVERY quarterback. Watch the best guys in the league. Watch Aaron Rodgers. When he misses a throw, the DB makes a play, or it&#8217s close enough that maybe the receiver could have gotten it, or the play never had a chance &#8216cause the other guys saw it coming. If we&#8217re going to squint hard enough at 15 to pretend there&#8217s a 60% passer in there, then Drew Brees will be topping 90% for a season soon. It&#8217s like staring at a $5 bill in the hopes the Lincoln turns into Franklin.

And the stuff about Orton&#8217s low completion rate? It was 59 last year, 59 this year. The simplest explanation for Tebow&#8217s low completion rate is that he&#8217s bad at throwing the football. My toddler could come to that conclusion.

Like an Internet fad, this novelty show will be a lot of fun while it lasts. And I hope it&#8217s like the dollar-bill-making machine Daffy Duck once bot for $0.50. That would be awesome. But I think this ride will be a lot more enjoyable if everybody just digs in and enjoys the lightning-in-a-bottle vibe. It&#8217s going to end ugly.

Posted by Chibronx on 2011-11-14 14:55:50

I just wanted to give my take on what I think is happening.

When it comes to defense, the one (and probably only now) advantage it has over the offense is the fact that it has the offense outnumbered at the line of scrimmage. For example, in pass plays, the defense can always send one more than the offense can block if it so chooses and still have all receivers covered by at one man (not saying it is good coverage, but this fact is true). In the run game, the defense has a TWO man advantage because the QB routinely does not block and does not need to be respected and the ball carrier is not a blocker.

What Tebow is doing is taking away the two man advantage by forcing 1) a spy on him at all times; and 2) forcing defensive players to respect their gaps because overpursuit of the fake allows him two options for running lanes and the spy can&#8217t cover both of them. This effectively takes the second man advantage out of play. Most teams stop the run because they gang up in the direction of the ball carrier; some players miss their assigned gap but it generally doesn&#8217t matter because of the two man advantage. Only when players get extremely undisciplined do you generally end up with large cut back lanes. With the zone-read, it only takes one man to screw up and you have a big gain. This is why I don&#8217t think the system is a gimmick - it truly places the defense at a disadvantage and is sustainable in the long term.

Because of Tebow, there are A LOT of weaknesses being covered up. First, don&#8217t be fooled into thinking that the OL is now is some powerful line. It certainly wasn&#8217t at the start of the year when Orton was playing. This is because when Orton was playing, the defense had the numerical advantage because they did not need to respect him. When Tebow plays, this numerical advantage has disappeared; this allows you to get 4-5 yards per run play. When this advantage disappears (ie. passing plays), the line goes back to being below average. Second, the WR corps is way below average. Sometimes they run open, but far too frequently, the WR achieve minimal to no separation - this has only got worse since the trade of Lloyd. Thomas should be having a field day given his size and speed and 1 on 1 coverage - it isn&#8217t happening. The only one getting separation is Decker.

Just putting a different QB back there won&#8217t mean that Denver will be able to pound the rock the way they have AND be able to pass like the Patriots because all of the above issues come back. The OL isn&#8217t good enough to block when the defense has the man advantage and the receivers aren&#8217t good enough to get open in more complex coverages. If I were Denver, here is what I would be considering. Scrap Tebow&#8217s &#8220new&#8221 delivery. He clearly isn&#8217t comfortable with it and his passes are all over the place because of it. The slow delivery will just have to be his weakness and in the face of all the other advantages he brings, the trade off is certainly worth it.

Posted by John Hilton on 2011-11-14 14:52:01

Links to Silver and CHFF added (under Scrapple)

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2011-11-14 14:49:18

Agreed jimb.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-14 14:47:33

Tom Osborne used the run-only offense to win road games in Missouri/Kansas first.

The Huskers did it better.

Posted by Piper A R on 2011-11-14 14:45:35

Wow! There are a ton on negative comments in the Gut Reactions and this Lard. I guess I am in the minority, but when you can simply line up and run it down the throats of one of your main rivals all day long I consider that one of the greatest games I have seen in a while. (Or maybe since last week.) Just think how it feels to be a Chiefs fan today. Didn&#8217t they have a couple of 1st round draft picks on their defensive line yesterday? I just can&#8217t believe you guys didn&#8217t think that was awesome.

Also, Ohio just said (post #12) that the running game was encouraging, but we don&#8217t currently have our long term QB on the roster. Didn&#8217t we spend quite a bit of last week talking about how Tebow makes the running game that much more effective? I guess Ohio does not buy into Ted&#8217s analysis. I do agree, however, that the offensive line was looking great yesterday.

Finally, I think you guys are being a little over dramatic about Tebow&#8217s passing woes. He definitely had one terrible pass to Rosario (and after re-watching it I am not sure he was not sort of throwing it away to be safe), but to say he was not within the zip code of his targets is a little off in my opinion. Doc also commented yesterday that he threw like an adolescent girl. I could not believe I was reading that from someone who is usually very positive. I personally am concerned with Tebow&#8217s throwing ability and hope that he improves, but I do not think that yesterday was a fair sample to go by. He never threw enough to get into rhythm, and that is because the Broncos were having too much fun jamming the ball down KC&#8217s throat. Did anyone else see McCoy with a somewhat evil grin on his face while he was calling in plays?

Posted by jimb on 2011-11-14 14:43:21

I agree the coaches don&#8217t trust the passing game (which includes our pass protection and route running btw). However, to leap to the conclusion that Tebow can&#8217t throw the ball because of this lack of trust in a game where he only attempted 8 or 9 passes = epic logic fail.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-14 14:40:08

Boydy, I don&#8217t see Doug&#8217s comments as &#8220pretty negative on Tebow&#8221. From my perspective the statements seemed pretty accurate.

Relatedly, I do have one quibble, and it&#8217s not aimed at Doug specifically. When discussing the passing game I wish the commentators would rephrase &#8220faith in Tebow&#8221 to &#8220faith in the passing game&#8221 (of which Tebow is a key part).

The issues with the passing game are more than just Tebow. In addition to Tebows issues, pass blocking has been below standard, receivers have run wrong routes and have had their share of dropped balls.

The low completion rate isn&#8217t all on Tebow just as it wasn&#8217t ALL Orton&#8217s fault earlier in the season. Fortunately, there are some signs for hope in the passing game. Tebow is appearing much more comfortable in the position and I&#8217m seeing some improvement in the offensive line.

What excites me is the thought of a team that can average well over 200 rushing yards a game when the defense isn&#8217t even trying to defend the pass. Imagine what this offense could be if defenses had to worry about the pass? Hopefully we get there soon.

Posted by Alan_Smithee on 2011-11-14 14:34:08

Since a NY team is coming to town for a Thursday night game, it&#8217s worth repeating that all we&#8217re trying to do is win a MF&#8217in game. A lot of encouraging things for the long term in the game yesterday. A lot of what we saw with the pass rush and running game is what we were promised/hoped for before the season and it&#8217s starting to come together. Have to like having a very young OL and seeing it start to gel. Ball is a run of the mill back who will get what&#8217s there but not create anything. So when he&#8217s productive, the credit is on the OL. The pass rush has now pummeled division rival QBs two straight week&#8217s Hopefully Rivers, Cassel and Palmer will soon dread playing the Broncos.

None of this makes it remotely acceptable to have a QB who can&#8217t be counted on to complete passes though. The long term QB is not on the roster, but that&#8217s ok at this point.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2011-11-14 14:09:46

I still think that the lack of veteran WR&#8217s is hurting this offense, particularly the absence of Gaffney. Currently the only consistent WR on the roster is Eric Decker.

This isn&#8217t a Tebow thing, it was there with Orton as well. The Gaffney trade was a major gafe(ziiiing!).

Tebow was a ~65% passer in college, that doesn&#8217t just go away. The team has changed his mechanics substantially since he was in college, he Tebow still has footwork issues, but if you look at the quality of his throws the past 2 weeks vs the quality of his throws the first 2 weeks he started this year, there is a jump in quality.

Given a full offseason of work with the coaches and the WR&#8217s, Tebow&#8217s accuracy should get close to 55%-60%. The Broncos with Tebow at QB just need to win enough games to force Elway&#8217s hand(3 more wins and I think he does)

And FWIW, the Jets are ranked 15th in Rush defense and Denver has the 2nd ranked rush Offense. An upset on Thursday at home would be huge.

Posted by SpaceCowboy on 2011-11-14 14:07:53

Thanks, as always, the the Lard, Doug.

I think your analysis of the situation vis a vis Tebow is absolutely correct. The endless merry-go-round of excuses/guesses that some Broncos fans keep tossing out to explain why Tebow doesn&#8217t throw the ball only makes me chuckle: &#8216McCoy&#8217s game plan sucks&#8217, &#8216the OL sucks&#8217, &#8216the wide receivers suck&#8217, &#8216EFX are trying to sabotage Tebow&#8217s chances&#8217, or (Sorry Vortex, I know you&#8217re just trying to be positive), today&#8217s &#8216Fox is saving Tebow&#8217s best for later&#8217.

It is absolutely clear what the situation is, just as you&#8217ve said: Fox et al. realize that Tebow cannot consistently complete any sort of mid-range pass against an NFL defense. What he CAN do very well is two things: run the football (including executing effective option-type ball obfuscations ), and throw a deep ball. The coaching staff has thus developed some innovative game plans that maximize these particular talents and, in concert with generally improved play from the team&#8217s other units, we have been finding success.

Frankly, I think Fox should be a coach-of-the-year candidate for recognizing the situation and putting the team in position to be successful given the severe offensive handicap under which he&#8217s working. I also think that the Broncos are winning games that Orton would not have won *because* of these creative game plans and Tebow&#8217s execution of the two things he does well. Ultimately, however, I recognize that this level of trickery is *not* sustainable, and will not work against many (most?) NFL defenses since, a: the Broncos will not be able to run effectively against top defenses if the pass cannot be used to keep them honest; b: the deep ball can be taken away if a defense stays disciplined; c: the offense will not be able to consistently play from behind.

Finally, let&#8217s face it: the Broncos have been exceptionally lucky for the past month. The Dolphins completely bungling the two-point conversion defense? A recovered on-side kick? The Raiders doing their damnedest to give the game away via penalties? The Raider&#8217s LBs (Curry) being completely undisciplined despite knowing the Broncos were running an option-type offense? A punt-return touchdown? A Chiefs offense that is in the middle of a season-worst ineffective streak? The Broncos have certainly found a way to maximize the effectiveness of what they do well, but none of this equals long-term success.

Posted by La French on 2011-11-14 13:56:38

Great Lard Doug,

I also give a ton of credit to the coaches. I did not think it was possible to win games in this manner, but they figured it out. Kudos to them.

I don&#8217t think the coaches necessarily lack trust in Tim throwing the ball, they just know he isn&#8217t very good at it. Good coaching is all about putting players in the best situation to succeed. Wins in 2011 will correlate with a low number of pass attempts. Clambering for McCoy to &#8220open up the play book&#8221 and throw more is akin to a Pats fan wanting Brady to turn and hand it off 50 times a game.

Furthermore, to my untrained eye, that play book was wide open yesterday. It reminded me of Shanny in his prime in that they did the same things over and over from different formations and looks. It&#8217s simple enough to execute consistently, while complicated enough to keep the defense on its heels. Just great coaching all around.

Posted by ButteBronco on 2011-11-14 13:56:10

I dunno, Chefs have some decent defensive backfield, and they&#8217ve proven their rush D stinks, so why not target your enemy&#8217s weaknesses? And, the Denver O-line hasn&#8217t been the greatest during pass protection, but they did produce a 300 yard rush game last week.

Kinda seems sensible to me that Fox and Co. strategized this way. Let&#8217s not forget that it isn&#8217t only Tebow on the field.

It was nice to hear Ryan give up on his own team after last night&#8217s game. Hopefully they won&#8217t play for him Thursday and the Broncs can push their way into 1st in a division of crappy teams.

Posted by jtomasik on 2011-11-14 13:51:32

Thanks Doug.

Always appreciate you linking stuff. Banks did a good piece as well last night.

Yeah V, The Jets aint my favorites either. Arrogant asses IMO who over rate actually how good they are.

I think they are a pretty average team that backs down if you sock them in the mouth, and thats what I want to see.

Posted by Boydy2669 on 2011-11-14 13:40:35

Agreed. For all his accolades (remember - I&#8217m in Jets country) I didn&#8217t see a QB all too much more aware than Tebow last night. If we can pressure him half as well as the Patriots did&#8230well Champ Bailey > Kyle Arrington

Also, going along with your point, I think its worth noting that the ground and pound isn&#8217t the worst philosophy against this particular team. They&#8217ll have a limited work week to prepare for an offense drastically different than New England&#8217s. Plus, those stars in the secondary and exotic blitzes don&#8217t work quite as well when the ball is in between the tackles. I think the Raiders (Week 3) and Patriots (Week 5) proved that their D-Line is their weakness and if you can handle them, you can wear down Harris/Scott and break off long runs.

Sorry. I really hate the Jets.

Posted by Vortex7 on 2011-11-14 13:34:39

Vortex, I agree.

They went with the run first against the Chiefs to see if they could stop it. They could not, so they kept going with it.

I think they will do the same vs the Jets. Use thr run, see where they end up, and then go to a new page if not getting success.

I think our D will be the key in game. If we can get at Sanchize, we will go a long way to winning this game.

Posted by Boydy2669 on 2011-11-14 13:23:14

As somebody who still lives in Jets territory, I&#8217m with you on the Jets hate, Doug.

Granted I&#8217m drinking whatever Kool-Aid I can find, but is there any possibility that - with the limited amount of passing plays Tebow does well - the Denver coaches just didn&#8217t show their hand?

With the Jets coming on a short week and division game after that, why show your limited hand when you don&#8217t have to? I admit that this is a massive leap of faith - bordering on delusional, but hopefully McCoy/Gase/Fox has already begun building a passing game off the new running attack and simply didn&#8217t have to use it with the running game doing as well as it did and Cassel&#8217s play.

Posted by Vortex7 on 2011-11-14 13:00:59

Thanks Doug.

Wow, you are pretty negative on Tebow. I don&#8217t get it, don&#8217t agree with much of your reasoning.

Anyhow, I appreciate what you do. Thanks for the Lard.

Tebow can throw, dont think it has much to do with lack of trust from coaches&#8230but each to their own man.