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The Trump Administration Searches for a MidEast
Policy

Thomas
Parker teaches security studies at George Washington University.
Previously, he served as a policy planner for the Middle East at the
State Department and advised the secretary of defense. Mr. Parker
briefed the Middle East Forum on March 6, 2017.

Multimedia for this item

After the
frustrating Obama years, the conservative Arab states and Israel look
forward with cautious optimism to the Trump era. But can the new
administration address the numerous problems left by its predecessor?
A quick review of the region's main trouble spots offers some clues:

· Iran.
While the nuclear agreement seems likely to stand, it remains to be
seen whether the administration will sustain its tough approach to
Tehran's ballistic missile tests, which were not covered by the
agreement. Judging by their cancellation of a new missile test
following the American reprimand, the Iranians are likely to adhere
to the agreement in the foreseeable future for fear of a U.S. or
Israeli strike. The moment of truth will come when the agreement
sunsets in seven or eight years, allowing Tehran to develop nuclear
weapons virtually undetected.

· Turkey
and the Kurds. Given longstanding Turkish-Kurdish tensions,
the administration will need to weigh the relative balance of costs
and benefits attending the Kurdish contribution to the anti-ISIS
campaign and the military bases offered by Turkey. The administration
may seek to allay Ankara's fears of the growing Kurdish assertiveness
by increasing U.S. military presence in Syria.

· Iraq,
Syria, and the war against Islamic State (ISIS). In line
with President Trump's repeated vows to defeat ISIS, hundreds of U.S.
Marines have recently arrived in Syria to expedite the attack on the
terror group's capital of Raqqa. A general loosening of the rules of
engagement will allow a more proactive approach, which will in turn
lead to ISIS's eventual defeat in Syria and Iraq. For its part, the
Assad regime will likely remain in power given Moscow's preference
for a secular ruler.

· Egypt.
After the chilly Obama-Sisi relationship, a significant warming in
U.S.-Egyptian ties is likely, and notably the resumption of close
military cooperation.

· Israel.
The widespread euphoria in right-wing circles over Trump's election
has ebbed as the administration adopts a more conventional approach
to both the West Bank and moving the embassy to Jerusalem. A
consensus seems to be emerging in Washington whereby neighborhoods
within the security barrier, comprising some 80 percent of the West
Bank's Jewish population, would be allowed to expand but those
outside the barrier would not. Thus far, most Israeli discussions
with the administration, including in Netanyahu's meeting with Trump,
have primarily focused on the Iranian threat rather than the
Palestinian issue.

· Russia.
Defying widespread predictions of doom, Moscow's Syrian intervention
has greatly enhanced its regional prowess, and President Putin shows
no intention to relinquish this new gain. President Trump may have
thus overrated his ability to translate Russia's goodwill toward his
administration to concrete collaboration against ISIS. On the
contrary, attributing the ongoing regional mayhem to the 2003 Iraq
war and the 2011 Libyan intervention, Moscow seems bent on keeping
Washington out of the region and views the persistence of
U.S.-Iranian tensions as a useful means to this end.

Whatever
President Trump's personal instincts, he has surrounded himself with
mainstream advisors like Secretary of State Tillerson and Generals
Mattis and McMaster, both military leaders with long experience and
familiarity with the Arab world. This may result in a less
revolutionary, yet more robust Middle Eastern policy.

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The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and its Role in Enforcing Islamic Law

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The gravity of the existential threat we face from Islamic Jihad is truly of epic proportions. It is essentially a battle pitting free-civilized man against a totalitarian barbarian. What is at stake is the struggle for our very soul - namely who we are and what we represent. The lives that were sacrificed for individual rights and freedoms that we've come to cherish are being chiseled away from right under our noses by the stealth jihadists. And many of us are in denial and totally clueless.

The left's appeasement and pandering to evil is nothing new. What makes their utopian delusions so infuriating and unpardonable is that it is not only they who will have to pay the consequences, and deservedly, so, they are thwarting and undermining our best efforts at resistance and are thus dragging us down in the process as well.