Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Open Discussion

Aaron hernandez

Wow that projection makes no sense to me. Needs a sizeable upgrade - nothing but growth and kubiak downgrades him bigtime. Not sure i see the data behind that

Posted by: DCAS on 30 Aug 2011

6 replies , Last at
01 Sep 2011, 9:58am by
DCAS

1

Re: Aaron hernandez

by Zheng :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 10:42pm

Isn't he still sharing with Gronkowski?

2

Re: Aaron hernandez

by Key19 :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 1:08am

Looking at his 2010 numbers, he trailed off as the season went on. I'm no Pats expert, but that means one of two things to me. 1: Lost effectiveness as time went on (not good) or 2: Became phased out of passing game for whatever reason (even worse). Combine that with the fact that I've heard a ton of Patriots beat writers gushing about Rob Gronkowski's training camp, and I think it's perfectly reasonable to think that Hernandez could finish with KUBIAK's numbers. I just double-checked him earlier tonight (as I do almost every player in KUBIAK) and I didn't see any need to tweak his numbers.

But hey, it's your Board and your team. Do what you want. I always say that it's better to go against conventional wisdom and grab a guy you love and have him disappoint than to pass on a guy you love because of conventional wisdom and watch him blow up.

4

Re: Aaron hernandez

by tsull5 :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 2:16pm

I think Hernandez' decline in numbers is tied to reason 1, more so than 2 (being phased out), but there was a reason for it; he hurt his hip. Assuming his post-season surgery and rehab has left him healthy, which looks to be the case, I think his first half stats are the baseline for his 2011 season.

Gronk has been getting praise from camp reporters, but so has Hernandez (top Pats' reporter Mike Reiss and Tom Curran have both recently pointed out Hernandez dominating practice). I think what bodes well for Hernandez is that, if anything, he'll be relied on more in the passing game than he was in the first half of last year. Gronkowski will limit his redzone targets, but Hernandez will more likely split outside from 20 to 20, and compete with Branch and Ochocinco for targets more than he will with Gronk. Hernandez looks to be the only big play threat on the entire receiving corps with Wes doing his usual underneath work, and Branch and Ocho lacking real playmaking ability at this point in their careers.

3

Re: Aaron hernandez

by DCAS :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 8:11am

Agreed on most of your points - but kubiak projects a sizeable % decrease from last year where the time share with gronkowsi was the same. And he is being used off the formation and in alot of different sets/brady loves him/he's physically superior to gronk. No biggie I'll just tweak the board

5

Re: Aaron hernandez

by jabrch :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 2:22pm

Definitely you need to tweak your own board....

Here's my thoughts. I hate having Belicheck's WRs, TEs or RBs. With a few notable exceptions, most players don't have enough value week in and week out to be meaningful to me. Welker (in a PPR league) is an exception this year. But even BJGE scares me due to how he uses RBs. Ocho isn't a top 30ish WR. And from the TE position, he's behind Gronk.

I just don't see how I would justify taking him in a 10 team league where you only have to start 1 TE. Would I pick him up for a bye week? Sure - no problem... But draft him? Nope...

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Re: Aaron hernandez

by DCAS :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 9:58am

14team different world - 85 and branch are on the steady decline for sure.