Thursday, April 03, 2008

The Decline in Palestinian Arab Fertility--And Why It Should Matter To The US

Yoram Ettinger, a member of the American-Israeli Demographic Research Group, reports in ynetnews.com:

...the UN Population Division claims that the drop in Muslim and Arab fertility rates is the highest in the world. Over the course of a mere 25 years Iranians have gone from an average of 10 children per woman to 1.8.

In Egypt and Jordan numbers have plummeted to fewer than 2.5 and 3 children per woman, respectively.

Meanwhile, what about the Jewish fertility level in Israel?

since the year 2000 Jewish fertility is on the rise (2.8) while the fall in Arab rates (3.5) came no less than 20 years earlier than predicted.

The annual number of Jewish births has risen 40% since 1995 (80,400 then compared to 112,455 in 2007) while the number of Arab births has steadied at 39,000.

This all runs contrary to the predictions of the Central Bureau of Statistics, which apparently has a long history of miscalculation:

We will remember that in 1948 the Bureau's founder and spiritual leader, Professor Roberto Bacchi, tried to persuade David Ben-Gurion to postpone the establishment of the State of Israel. According to Bacchi's projections at the time, the 600,000 Jewish citizens living within the borders allocated by the United Nations partition plan would become a minority by 1967.

In 1967 and 1973 the Bureau predicted that Jews would become a minority in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean by 1987 and 1990, respectively.

In addition to fewer Arabs and Moslems being born, Palestinian Arabs in particular also have to deal with the fact that fewer of those that are being born are sticking around. According to The Ettinger Report (see cached copy), Palestinian Arab emigration is on the rise, quoting--among other things--Yedioth Achronot from April 8:

38% of Palestinians wish to emigrate, according to a February 2007 survey conducted by A-Najah University in Nablus and a survey conducted by Nabil Kukali’s research center in Beit Sakhur. A September 2006 study, by Bir Zeit University, indicated that 44% of the 20-30 age group, and 32% of the total Palestinian population, want to emigrate.

The low Palestinian birthrate and increasing rate of emigration is of more than mild interest to the US.

Back in March 2006, data on the declining Palestinian birthrate, supported in part by the Palestinian Arabs themselves, were presented to the Middle East Subcommittee of the House International Relations Committee, chaired by Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Republican Congresswoman of Florida--who in January proposed legislation, which would cut American funding to both the PA and the UN, designate the PA a "terrorist sanctuary," and close down some of the PA offices in the US, in order to reduce Palestinian-American diplomatic ties.

But this time, the issue was not about terrorism--the issue of Palestinian demographics was relevant to the committee for a different reason. The importance of Zimmerman's demographic research for the US, as noted by World Net Daily, is that

almost $3 billion in United States taxpayer funds may have been provided as aid to the Palestinians in part based on fraudulent data.

"American tax dollars and other international humanitarian aid have been based on inflated population numbers which have been accepted without question by governments and aid agencies. Our researchers pointed out that money has been spent to help Palestinians who were double-counted, never born or not present in the West Bank and Gaza," Bennet Zimmerman, head of the new study, titled "Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza," told WND.

This of course is in addition to the corruption and the siphoning off of the money to terrorists.

Of course, one might assume that Europe, as well as the US, would be interested in the possibility that they are being swindled by the Palestinian Arabs as well.

Based on the continued rush of the US and Europe to throw money at the PA, such an assumption is apparently unfounded.

About Me

When I am not blogging at Daled Amos, I am sharing articles and the great posts of others on my account on Google Plus.

I write about the Middle East in general and about Israel in particular -- especially about issues affecting Israel in the Middle East and how Israel is impacted by policy in the current Obama administration.