Vaughn Palmer: The Liberal ship may be sinking, but quality candidates are climbing aboard

Vaughn Palmer, Vancouver Sun columnist02.18.2013

Cabinet minister Pat Bell’s decision not to seek re-election this spring because of health concerns deprives the Liberals of yet another experienced member of the team. Of the 49 MLAs elected as Liberals in the 2009 provincial election, only 27 will be running under the party banner this time.

VICTORIA — As cabinet minister Pat Bell tells it, his heart was in it for one more run for the Liberals metaphorically speaking, until he discovered that his heart might not be in it in a physical sense.

Late last year, Bell’s doctors determined, after extensive testing, that he has a rare aneurysm, one that requires monitoring by a cardiac specialist and that might entail major corrective surgery for Bell down the road.

“All of this has caused me to re-think my decision to seek another term as the MLA for Prince George-Mackenzie,” he announced in a statement to his constituents released Sunday.

“This is a critical and compelling time for our province and it’s equally critical that our team members are able to focus 100 per cent of their attention on the task at hand. With this diagnosis, I need to turn my mind to my personal health and this would take my attention away from my responsibilities as your MLA.”

With that he withdrew his nomination, already secured last year, as the candidate for the governing party in the riding he’s won comfortably through three successive provincial elections.

His departure, a mere dozen weeks before election day, deprives the Liberals of a substantive presence that a senior cabinet minister can bring to a swing riding.

“To no one’s surprise, he is far more popular and respected in the community than either his leader or his political party,” wrote Neil Godbout, managing editor of the Prince George Citizen in an editorial published Monday.

“Even those opposed to his politics have to agree that Bell has worked hard throughout his tenure to represent his constituents well and this community is unquestionably better for his efforts.”

Bell’s news also deprives Premier Christy Clark of yet another experienced member of the team. Of the 49 MLAs elected as Liberals in the 2009 provincial election, 27 will be running under the party banner this time.

The other 22 will be non-starters for the Liberals, as a result of resignations, retirements and defections.

I make that an attrition rate of 45 per cent, on par with the 43-per-cent dropout rate for Social Credit MLAs through their last term in office, and higher than the 38 per cent of NDP MLAs who chose not to face the voters when their government was driven from office in 2001.

But for all the comments from supporters of other parties about you-know-whats leaving a sinking ship, at least Clark’s opponents can’t say the Liberals are going back to the voters with the same old bunch as last time.

Renewal of the team is unavoidable when almost half of the players have made themselves into no-shows for one reason or another.

Nor have the Liberals had as much difficultly recruiting replacement candidates as one would expect, given the party’s continued lag in the opinion polls and the discouraging series of setbacks, detailed here and elsewhere.

Indeed one of the brightest spots for the party has been the number of contested nominations.

Five candidates sought the party nomination in Shuswap to succeed retiring George Abbott. Four went at it in Penticton, where incumbent Liberal (and Speaker of the legislature) Bill Barisoff is stepping down.

The past weekend marked the resolutions of hotly contested two-way fights for nominations in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and Vancouver-Quilchena.

The selection process has also produced a number of credible nominees. Greg Kyllo, a member of Sicamous council and owner of the Twin Anchors Marine Group is the nominee in Shuswap. Penticton Mayor Dan Ashton got the nod in his community.

Andrew Wilkinson, doctor, lawyer, Rhodes scholar and former deputy minister, won the nomination in Quilchena Sunday. Pemberton Mayor Jordan Sturdy emerged with the nomination from Saturday’s showdown in Sea to Sky.

Langley’s three-term mayor Peter Fassbender recently agreed to offer himself as a Liberal MLA in one of the ridings in neighbouring Surrey. Other standout additions to the candidate lineup include Todd Stone in Kamloops South Thompson and Michelle Stilwell in Parksville Qualicum.

In short, the ship may be headed for the rocks as all the opinion polls suggest, but there are still a lot of folks trying to climb aboard.

As to what they might be up to, each is no doubt hoping that the party can turn things around and win a rare fourth term.

But I expect that many of those would-be Liberal MLAs are thinking of the longer game as well.

Presuming the polls hold and the New Democrats win, then there’ll be a major rebuilding job ahead for the coalition of centre-right interests that the Liberals have represented for the past dozen years.

Much easier to do that with a strong Opposition presence in the legislature, particularly if the rival Conservatives can be held to a couple of seats or frozen out altogether. Some of the names stepping forward doubtless see themselves assuming a leadership role in the rebuilding process, assuming they win their seats.

So it would be fair to speculate that many of those who are stepping forward to run for the Liberals have few illusions about their ability to head off a change of government but plausible expectations of being able to confine the New Democrats to a single term.

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Vaughn Palmer: The Liberal ship may be sinking, but quality candidates are climbing aboard

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