Catastrophe models enable cities and countries to set targets for and
measure success of disaster risk reduction initiatives

April 07, 2015 09:13 AM Eastern Daylight Time

NEWARK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--RMS,
the world’s leading catastrophe risk management firm, voiced its support
for Tokyo’s recently-announced plan to halve expected earthquake
casualties over the next ten years, urging other cities and countries to
follow suit in setting specific, measurable disaster risk reduction
targets.

“It is very encouraging to see Tokyo’s leadership in driving meaningful,
measurable action to reduce the impact of disasters,” said Dr. Robert
Muir-Wood, chief research officer at RMS. “While the 50 percent national
target for reductions in disaster casualties appeared in the draft of
the Sendai
Declaration on Disaster Risk Reduction, it did not make it to the
final version signed last month. We hope Tokyo’s ‘50 percent initiative’
will inspire momentum from other cities and countries to step up and
make specific disaster reduction commitments measured through the use of
catastrophe models.”

Through risk modeling, Tokyo will assess its progress against the
casualty reduction goals without any lives being lost. The city will
model the performance of building stock in terms of collapse rates, fire
starts and fire spread, which could result from a magnitude 7.3
earthquake under the city, comparable to a scenario
that occurred in 1855.

RMS has been modeling earthquake casualties in a range of countries,
including Japan, since 2007, and first outlined the 50 percent target
for casualty reductions, set and measured through the use of catastrophe
models, in a report
for the UK Department for International Development (UK DFID) in
December 2012. The idea was amplified and expanded in a 2014 report
also produced for the UK DFID, written in collaboration with the
Overseas Development Institute (ODI) think tank and Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), which showed that real progress
in reducing future disaster impacts cannot be measured simply from a
decade of actual disasters. For example, fewer than ten people died in
earthquakes in Haiti through the whole of the 20th century, yet more
than 200,000 died in a single afternoon in 2010.

“We would like to see more countries and cities set similar targets for
reducing the cost of disasters relative to national or city-wide GDP,
which would also be measured using catastrophe models,” said Muir-Wood.

About RMS

RMS models and software help financial institutions and public agencies
evaluate and manage catastrophe risks throughout the world, promoting
resilient societies and a sustainable global economy.