20 July 2017 1:26 PM

So how many have died in Mosul? Here is one estimate

This despatch, from my friend Patrick Cockburn, is a useful reminder that the defeat of IS in Mosul has net been cost-free, and has not led to an immediate total triumph for the forces of goodness. It is a pity that The Independent is no longer published as a print edition, as such reports have more impact in this form, I believe, than they can on the internet.

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Michael Wood .
my previous reply still applies , that I do not think the west is to blame for all the death & destruction in the middle east , i do not recall any western ordnance falling on Algeria or Morocco during the Arab spring .
***life, for the vast majority in these countries, would have changed very little and I doubt they will be able to recover for generation to come.*** , your last sentence , I agree with , especially the ***changed very little*** part , to use the lyrics of a song " how are you going to keep them down on the farm*** etc , etc .
Why on earth will these people content themselves with an almost feudal sort of life into the 21st century ?

The U.S. Marines took Mosul in 2004 at the cost of 5 civilian deaths. Arguing now that the U.S. shouldn't have intervened in Iraq in the first place is a dodge, a distraction, a deflection to avoid placing the proximate cause for this slaughter where it belongs.

Barak Hussein Obama's precipitate withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, as a stunt during the runup to his reelection campaign, was what left the vacuum that ISIS filled. It is not even arguable. Which means, as far as I am concerned before a righteous God, this blood is on his hands.

***PH says: Oh, don't be silly. In 2004 Mosul was a functioning modern city in a non-sectarian, orderly and stable country. The invasion and incompetent subsequent occupation (preceded as they were by years of sanctions whose main effect was to bankrupt and destroy the pro-Western Iraqi middle class) destroyed all that in a matter of months, turning Iraq and all its cities into sectarian hell-holes in which the basic services, the economy, and all authority, collapsed. To blame these consequences on Obama is just absurd.***

"In regard to "regime interference" are you suggesting that corruption only started in Iraq after Western Intervention ?"

Not at all, David, I am suggesting that the recent and present terrible suffering of the *general populace* in all the countries mentioned is a direct result of western intervention - or should I be more specific and say; the destruction of entire cities and their inhabitants is a direct result of western bombs, missiles, canons and western supported terrorists.
To our eternal shame, much of the rebellious Arab Spring - and even the coup in Ukraine - was Western inspired, initiated, armed, financed and perpetuated to this day.
As I said - without such western backing and direct interference - life, for the vast majority in these countries, would have changed very little and I doubt they will be able to recover for generation to come.

Michael Wood .
That's harsh , on a Sunday morning , trying to make me think about details , I will however try .
I do not think the West is directly responsible for the original uprisings in Tunisia , Egypt , Bahrain , Morocco , Jordan , the Yemen or Syria , all these states have had violence and uprisings to a lesser or greater degree , since for arguments sake 2010 , we can discount historical colonial uprisings , Can`t we ? The causes are often , unemployment , corruption , in gov & private life , nepotism , inflation , living conditions , oppression , often fatal , of people & restrictions on free speech . People in many countries are beginning to question their "tolerable plight " before any intervention by a third party . Intelligent people will ask " why has our country not advanced further than it has , compared to that country ? " " I omit the Lebanon , Israel and Palestine from my list , as that is an ongoing long term matter .
In regard to "regime interference" are you suggesting that corruption only started in Iraq after Western Intervention ?
No , I agree the west should not make things worse in these countries for the people who live there , or go to places and make new enemies , I would suggest that these matters are beyond the effective control of any Government .
The reaction " something must be done" about X ,Y, Z seems in many cases to make the situation worse .

Re. the slaughter in the ME; You say “in some countries it is” (the result of western interventions). In which countries would you say it is definitely not?

Those reasons you mention; “economic, public health, infant mortality, corruption and despotism”, are rife throughout the world and probably in most countries from my experience. The difference is that they have not had their hitherto tolerable plight exasperated by the destruction of their homes and supporting infrastructure or the removal of leadership and civil law and order. Even the grossly ‘oppressed’ Chinese can, on the whole, go about their, less than affluent, daily lives and business in peace and localised harmony. Where, in the ME countries mentioned, can anyone still do that?
The fact that ISIS terrorists can buy their freedom after capture is a direct consequence of ‘regime interference’ which is usually replaced by something far more sinister and dangerous to the indigenous populations.

Anyone “Living a subsistence lifestyle” surely does not deserve to be rendered homeless, stateless and fleeing for their lives to teach them a lesson in freedom and democracy!
And do we really need to create enemies and refugees of people who lack the power, will or wherewithal to change their own circumstances?
Are we any different - and are we really that naïve?

Michael Wood .
I don`t agree that the slaughter throughout the middle east is all the fault of western interventions , although in some countries it is .
There are other reasons including economic , public health , infant mortality because of diseases that have been controlled in western countries , corruption , according to Mr Cockburn , in Iraq , ISIS fighters can buy their freedom after capture and indeed despotism , the Government and its finances are controlled by a small group .
Living a subsistence lifestyle in the Yemen or Syria , may look idyllic from here , its probably more nightmarish if you are the one living it and can see now , with your own eyes on a TV screen or internet enabled device , an alternative .

Nobody in this world is free from despotism, not even you and I.
The vast majorities which number tens if not hundreds of millions of Iraq, Libya, The Yemen and Syria are now living in fear, are displaced or dead.
What is it that you disagree with?

To Frank Finch, "our ancestors knew far more than anyone has allowed." Your phrase expresses, in my view, the essence of conservative. This is "honour thy father and thy mother" in its extended meaning mentioned in the catechism. I also agree when you write that "the culture, values and commitments which would defeat [ISIS]... are the very things which those same "globalists" mock... An enlightened "social conservatism" is one of the very few things which will arrest and perhaps reverse the downward spiral..." I would underline that this should include a religious response. Roger Scruton laments that we 'lack their language'. (Acton Institute, 1 December 2016)

Michael Wood .
***what was coexisting before with many millions of men, women and children still living a relatively idyllic life.***
I don`t think I agree with this part of your comment in reply to Ross Towes .
There are may be another reason apart from western military intervention , for the upsurge in fighting or the "Arab Spring" , many people in those countries can now see for themselves , through satellite broadcasting and the internet , that there is an alternative to the way they are ruled and live , whereas previously , they were perhaps only slightly aware , due to censorship by their government , of any other method of life .
In communication and information terms the world has shrunk considerably in the last 10 years . As was said about another people " they may be simple people but they are far from stupid"

It's the sad, harsh reality of war: innocent people die. This has always been the case, and it always will be. The selective outrage used by most of the media and politicians to push their ideals is another sad, harsh reality. The fact that we've only had one serious investigation by a western journalist about the number of civilian casualties in Mosul just shows how pathetic and whipped the media is today, for all the grandstanding they do about how indispensable they are to freedom, democracy, etc.. The next time Peter goes on television, particularly the BBC, he should bring this up.

The figures given in the independent article are sad but a more true comment on a military assault on a large fought over urban area than the nonsense delivered by a lot of MSM. Air power and artillery of all types kill civilians in areas which are targetted.
Cities fought over in WW2 such as Warsaw and Berlin endured horrendous civilian casualties. Why should the battles for Mosul and Aleppo be presented utterly differently.
For the more cold blooded statisticians of war surely the numbers of civilians killed and maimed bears some proportionality to the numbers of civilians resident/trapped in the area and the amount of ordnance of all types used. On that basis it should not shock anyone that tens of thousands died in Mosul, in all probability significantly more than in Aleppo. I concur with PH's primary emotional concern that the active horror of it is now over and done with, and people can receive treatment for their wounds, bury their dead if they can find them, regroup whatever of their families remain and get on with a more normal life.

Just what and whose bloodbath are you side-stepping, ignoring or just unable to comprehend?
The slaughter throughout the Middle East, from beginning to now, was initiated by Western interventions in many places where, without it, there would be little change from what was coexisting before with many millions of men, women and children still living a relatively idyllic life.
As long as this continues you can count me in as one of your "simple knee-jerk anti-Western sentiment(alists)" and I am proud to be one.

With the UN and all other instruments of international justice firmly under the western neocon's jackboot, the rest of the world needs to boycott those organisations and re-invent them on a more equitable basis than that of the present.
Until then, nobody in this world is safe from, or will survive the tyranny that flies the flag of freedom and democracy but is as far removed from either as can be.

Could it be that there is a focus by most external observers on civilian casualties caused by air-delivered weapons because it enables an anti-Western line to be taken, unobscured by the much greater opprobrium due to those using artillery and rockets in an urban environment?

If so, then once again what we are seeing is not principled objection to the indiscriminate use of high explosive amongst civilians, but simple knee-jerk anti-Western sentiment from the usual suspects.

I have been reading Mr Cockburns articles since Mr Hitchens referenced him previously . He recently gave a description of Iraqi artillery stationed outside Mosul , most other media outlets concentrate on precision air strikes , artillery , although accurate enough for military purposes , can not be described as precision , surgical strike weapons , so the death toll is perhaps an conservative underestimate . Will it ever be known accurately how many civilians were killed in Iraq & Syria ?
I do resent being assumed to be gullible by our leaders .

I do not think that Patrick Cockburn's report will suprise huge numbers of people. It's all horribly predictable. Indeed, many were predicting this kind of chaos when various posturing politicians took it upon themselves to de-stabilise and already unstable region. How such specimens as Blair have the gall to even show their faces in public... much less hold forth on any subject as though they have something to say that anyone wants to hear... is something that will fascinate me for some time.

The outlook is not good. Such a movement as ISIS cannot be defeated by force of arms. Those who promote the idea of the global village... and the notion that humanity is really one big happy family... are going to continue to experience a long, bitter and very painful "wake up call". Mostly they'll do this from the comfort of their Caribbean islands and the illusion of safety offered by their gated community.

Is it not strange that the culture, values and commitments which would defeat such cults as that espoused by ISIS are the very things which those same "globalists" mock, disparage and work so hard to eradicate ??? An enlightened "social conservatism" is one of the very few things which will arrest and perhaps reverse the downward spiral which is apparent wherever you look. All can make a contribution by recognising that the party is over... and that our ancestors knew far more than anyone has allowed.

We probably ought to start with a re-instatement of the death penalty and the trial of Mr Anthony Blair.

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