How are things going at big banks’ investment banking (IBD) divisions this year? How was the third quarter? Who deserves to get paid? And – as we approach the fourth quarter-job-death-zone, whose jobs are secure and whose aren’t?

With the exception of Jefferies, most big banks have yet to release their third quarter results. Until the hard numbers come out in the middle of next month, this makes it difficult to judge their performance between July and September. In the case of IBD, however, Morgan Stanley’s banking analysts have got some performance figures (from Dealogic) ahead of the official results. These are presented in the charts below. As is standard practice with these things, Morgan Stanley is itself absent…

Where to get jobs in debt capital markets (DCM now)

As the chart below shows, you probably don’t want to be working in DCM right now. Revenues are crashing and job cuts may come in the next few months. Based upon the third quarter, you especially don’t want to be working in DCM for BNP Paribas or Barclays, where revenues were decimated in the third quarter. If DCM happens to be your fate, you’re best off at Nomura, HSBC or UBS.

Source: Dealogic (via Morgan Stanley)

Where to get jobs in equity capital markets (ECM) now

While debt capital markets jobs are sinking into a depression, equity capital markets (ECM) jobs are in the manic phrase of the capital markets mood cycle.

Citi’s ECM bankers look especially deserving of rewards based upon their standout performance in the third quarter. HSBC’s ECM bankers are also doing well (albeit from a low base). By comparison, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s ECM bankers are in trouble, as are Nomura’s. – In an expanding market, both have significantly lost market share.

Source: Dealogic (via Morgan Stanley)

Where to get jobs in M&A now

The mood in M&A is similar to the mood in ECM: ie. frenzied.

M&A bankers at Citi, Barclays, UBS and Goldman Sachs all had an outstanding third quarter and look assured of keeping their jobs well into 2015 and maybe even being paid higher bonuses for their trouble. However, there’s been a distinct shift in global M&A revenues towards the market leaders; you probably don’t want to be an M&A banker at a marginal house like BNP Paribas, Nomura, HSBC, or SocGen now. Tiny Credit Agricole’s 91% third quarter drop in M&A revenues is too painful to contemplate.