Speaking at Microsoft's financial analysts meeting today, CEO Steve Ballmer was refreshingly realistic about the company's struggles in smartphones and tablets. "Mobile devices. We have almost no share."

Right. Now that Ballmer himself admits it, can we please settle the discussion? Windows Phone has been a failure up until now.

The point and shoot digital camera market is an example of initially expensive technology becoming extremely cheap within a decade.

By 2018 even entry level mobile phone models will have all the features now found only on the most expensive phones. Very few people will pay a huge premium for wholly intangible benefits. So the post-2018 phone market will offer very few models over $100. This will make phones an extremely low margin business.

Phones are already close to their maximum practical specifications in the areas of speed, screen resolution and camera size. The only real improvements for consumers are going to be in better software and lower prices.