Republicans prepare for New Hampshire

With the nation’s first presidential primary looming on January 10, Republican presidential candidates campaigned across the small, north-eastern state of New Hampshire and squared off in two rare back-to-back debates on Saturday night and Sunday morning.

After his razor-narrow victory by eight votes in the Iowa caucuses last week, former investment banker and Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has solidified his position as the favourite to win New Hampshire, with five recent polls of the state showing him leading by an average of almost 21 percentage points. In three of those five polls Mr Romney captures at least 40 per cent of the vote, with Texas Congressman Ron Paul in second place, claiming between 17 and 24 per cent of likely primary voters.

Mr Romney has long been expected to win New Hampshire. Still, it would give him valuable momentum going into the next primary run off in the less congenial southern state of South Carolina.

But a Suffolk University poll is a red flag, showing Mr Romney’s support in New Hampshire slowly but surely dropping – down to 35 per cent as of last Saturday night. The main beneficiary appears to be Ron Paul, whose support has edged up to 20 per cent in the poll. However, New Hampshire Republicans go to the polls on Tuesday and it will be very difficult for Mr Paul to overcome a 15-point deficit in the few remaining hours. It seems likely at this point that the most Mr Romney’s rivals can hope for is to limit the scope of his victory and hope the media decides he failed to meet the lofty expectations set for him in the state.

Iowa runner-up, Rick Santorum, a former Senator from Pennsylvania, is failing to appeal to New Hampshire voters and is running a very distant third, capturing about 11 per cent of the vote in an average of five polls of the state. Behind Mr Santorum are former Utah governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, both attracting just under 10 per cent of the vote. Texas Governor Rick Perry, with a mere 1 per cent support, is hardly a blip on the radar.

Related Quotes

Company Profile

In a further boost to Mr Romney’s fortunes, his rivals barely scratched him during a presidential debate in Manchester, as the front-runner off stood aloof, alternately smiling and ignoring the other men on the stage in favour of repeatedly attacking the Obama administration on its handling of the economy, Iran, Iraq, free trade and more.

Perhaps sensing they missed an opportunity the night before, Mr Romney’s Republican rivals came back at a Sunday morning debate in Concord and attacked him from the start, particularly Newt Gingrich, who mocked Mr Romney’s assertion that he isn’t a “career politician" – calling it “pious baloney" – and a tax plan that Mr Gingrich called “timid". In a clear reference to Mr Romney’s reputation as a “flip-flopper" and his past support for liberal causes, Mr Santorum said the party needs a nominee who will be loyal to “conservative principles" even when it is not politically convenient.

Although Mr Romney came in second in New Hampshire in 2008, losing to Senator John McCain, he has long been considered a shoo-in this time around in the Granite State, which is right next door to his home base of Massachusetts. In addition to building a sprawling home in New Hampshire and spending so much time in the state the last four years that neighbours could have been forgiven for thinking he was a permanent resident, Mr Romney is also familiar to voters in this state because many frequently watch television stations airing from Boston, the capital of Massachusetts and by far the biggest city in the region. In addition, Mr Romney’s reputation as a businessman who will train his focus on the economy rather than controversial social issues dovetails easily with the views of many in this libertarian-leaning state, where many Republicans don’t want to hear politicians talking about gay marriage or abortion.

These are advantages that will not easily be overcome by his rivals, particularly Mr Santorum, a staunch Catholic who has for years made opposition to gay and abortion rights the cornerstone of his political career. Mr Santorum’s outspoken opposition to gay marriage, for example, has elicited jeers and rolling eyes, even from crowds heavy with Republican partisans. His support may actually be slipping in the state, despite good publicity from his unlikely near-win in Iowa. But unlike Iowa, the previous contest, and South Carolina, the next primary, New Hampshire is not a state known for its religious devotion, with regular church attendance among the lowest in the nation.

Mr Gingrich, like Santorum, a Catholic, though one who converted relatively late in life, looked a month ago as if he might be able to make Mr Romney sweat for a win in New Hampshire. After promising to run a positive campaign when he was riding high in the polls five weeks ago, Gingrich was pummelled by a series of negative advertisements sponsored by Mr Romney, Mr Paul and their allies. The former Speaker of the House has since abandoned his positive campaign and taken to harshly attacking his rivals and threatening to “define Mitt Romney out of the Republican party." So far that looks like an empty threat, as Mr Gingrich’s poll numbers continue to fall and Mr Romney’s continue to soar.

Mr Gingrich has shined in candidate debates, but he got no relief on Saturday night, as he failed to draw blood from Mr Romney and was instead fighting off an assault from Ron Paul, who ridiculed Mr Gingrich for not serving in Vietnam, calling him a “chickenhawk" – someone who favours a belligerent foreign policy that sends others off to die in wars. Mr Gingrich was an enthusiastic supporter of the Iraq War and favours an aggressive posture towards Iran, while Mr Paul is a frequent critic of America’s overseas alliances and entanglements – a very lonely position in the Republican party.

Mr Paul, a libertarian iconoclast famous for his attacks on every form of activist government – at home or abroad – also trained his fire on Mr Santorum, whom he accused of aiding his political career by directing large amounts of federal money to his Pennsylvania constituents during his career in Congress. “You’re a big spender," Mr Paul said. “That’s all there is to it." Mr Santorum stood his ground, defending the practice and arguing Mr Paul did the same.

New Hampshire voters take their first-primary-in-the-nation responsibility seriously and won’t be taken for granted by a front-runner. They’ve also been known to upset an Iowa winner, a lesson learned the hard way by Bob Dole in 1988 and Barack Obama twenty years later. Still, it will be quite a surprise if the US wakes up on January 11 to find Mitt Romney didn’t win the primary by a comfortable margin. Expectations for Mr Romney are high in this state, but if he can meet them he will head to South Carolina and its January 21 primary, with a formidable lead over his rivals and the prohibitive favourite to be the Republican choice to face off with President Barack Obama in the fall.