Colombia Peace Deal Must Rise Above Rebel Tricks, Tweets

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos needs to overcome opposition from his former mentor and a
history of guerrilla deception to forge a peace accord with the
nation’s biggest rebel group.

Santos yesterday said his government will sit down with the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, in Oslo, next
month for talks aimed at ending Latin America’s longest-running
civil conflict. Former President Alvaro Uribe immediately
rejected the overture, accusing his one-time defense minister of
handing the country over to “criminals” and boosting the re-
election chances of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez.

The first talks in a decade between the government and the
FARC comes as the Andean nation’s half-century conflict has
reached a deadlock. Although the guerrillas have stepped up
attacks this year, their ranks have thinned by half over the
past decade, several of its leaders have been killed and
remaining rebel units have been pushed to remote parts of the
jungle as a result of a U.S.-funded crackdown.

The government’s negotiating team will include retired
General Oscar Naranjo, the architect of Uribe’s security
policies, Santos said today.

Empty Chair?

Among the challenges Santos faces is a history of rebel
subterfuge. Colombia’s last peace process collapsed in 2002
after the FARC used a Switzerland-size demilitarized zone to
rearm and stage high-profile kidnappings of politicians. During
the talks then President Andres Pastrana was photographed
sitting at a negotiating table next to an empty plastic chair
waiting in vain for rebel commander Manuel Marulanda. He never
showed up, and the image of the empty chair became a symbol of
the rebels’ lack of sincerity.

“There’s no guarantee that the FARC is not going to
continue to play games,” said Shifter, who frequently visits
Colombia. “It’s one thing to sit down for talks and another to
demobilize and disarm.”

Santos, seeking to avoid the mistakes of the past, said
there would be no troop withdrawals to facilitate talks, and
some military operations would even intensify. The government
announced today it had killed guerrilla Danilo Garcia, the
“right-hand man” of FARC leader Rodrigo Londono, better known
by his alias Timochenko, during an assault on a camp in northern
Colombia.

Havana Accord

In discussing the peace talks, Santos also promised
negotiations would last months, not years like the previous
peacemaking attempt. Still, he said the FARC representatives had
kept their word in six months of secret talks with government
officials in Havana, Cuba that led to yesterday’s accord.

“It’s a difficult road, without a doubt, very difficult,
but it’s a road that we should explore,” Santos, 61, said in a
nationally televised speech, adding that strong economic growth
has laid the foundation for peace. “We can talk about peace
because millions of Colombians are leaving poverty.”

‘Blood-Toothed Vampires’

FARC negotiators held a rare press conference in Havana
yesterday to present a video message by Timochenko, who accused
the Colombian military of acting as “blood-toothed vampires”
in service of multinationals seeking access to the country’s
resource wealth.

“For us it’s perfectly clear that the key to peace is not
in the hands of the president or of the FARC’s commander,” said
Timochenko, who became head of the FARC’s seven-man secretariat
after troops killed his predecessor, alias Alfonso Cano, in a
2011 air strike.

While regretting the government’s refusal to cede
territory, Timochenko said the FARC had agreed to talks because
of Santos’ willingness to discuss a six-point agenda that
includes longstanding rebel demands such as agrarian development
and the granting of more political power to peasants.

In addition to a tough stance by the FARC, Uribe will
“relentlessly, fiercely attack” the process, Shifter said.
While Santos was responsible for some of the biggest blows
against the FARC as Uribe’s defense minister, including the 2008
rescue of three U.S. defense contractors, he’s now accused by
his still-popular former boss of undermining security gains.

‘Murderers’

“What a shame that FARC murderers and kidnappers are today
political figures fooling the world with their talk,” Uribe
wrote yesterday on his Twitter account.

Uribe has also said that engaging the FARC serves as
“electoral propaganda” for Chavez, who is seeking a third term
in an Oct. 7 vote. Chavez’s government, which the U.S. has
accused of harboring FARC leaders and providing the group with
weapons, will accompany the process along with Chile, whose
billionaire President Sebastian Pinera is an ally of Santos.
Norway and Cuba will broker the talks, according to the
framework agreement signed by representatives of both sides.

“Hopefully this attempt at achieving peace doesn’t fail,”
Chavez said in a speech last night congratulating Santos and the
guerrilla leadership. “There’s been enough war.”

President Barack Obama urged the FARC to take advantage of
the opportunity to end “decades of terrorism and narcotics
trafficking,” according to a statement by the White House press
secretary. The White House also reaffirmed the U.S.’s
“longstanding defense and security partnership” with Colombia,
which has received more than $8 billion in U.S. aid since 2002.

Amnesty?

Any attempt to reincorporate the guerrillas into political
and civilian life -- another part of the negotiating agenda --
would have to surmount challenges from the rebels’ victims and
human rights groups, who oppose amnesty for those accused of
atrocities. Four dozen FARC commanders, including Timochenko,
are also wanted in the U.S. on charges of smuggling hundreds of
tons of cocaine. The U.S. and European Union classify the FARC
as a terrorist organization.

“The market will focus on what will come from those first
two weeks in October,” said Daniel Velandia, head of research
at brokerage Correval SA in Bogota. “Up until now we’ve only
gotten guidance of what could happen.”

Investment Surge

If a deal is struck against the odds, investment that’s
already reached record levels in recent years would surge even
further, said Heather Berkman, a New York-based analyst at
Eurasia Group. Victories over guerrillas have opened up swathes
of countryside for companies to explore for crude, coal and
gold, with state-run oil producer Ecopetrol SA (ECOPETL) expanding
drilling into areas previously controlled by the Marxist rebels.

“This would be a pretty monumental turning point for
Colombia,” said Berkman in a phone interview.

That’s exactly what Santos is gambling on. In a March 2011
interview, he said he’d like to go down in history as the
Colombian president who signed a peace deal with the guerrillas.

“But I am in no hurry,” Santos said at the time. “They
have to sit down seriously and then they will find a government
willing to negotiate and willing to find a political solution.”