Chinese and US Bluffs

by Sascha Matuszak

Taiwan had a chance to prove to the world, and
most of all to China, that a free democratic election is a just and righteous
method for choosing leaders.

That chance was blown,
and now with angry opposition protests raging across the island screaming "invalid"
and "staged," the stage is set for Beijing’s intervention to restore stability
and firm Motherland control over the errant son.

Taiwan’s election was marred by bitter mudslinging through last year and into
the months preceding the vote, rebukes
from Beijing, the US and EU over the inclusion of the "peace referendum," constant
threats from the Mainland that war was imminent, the
inept shooting of President Chen Shui Bian and his Vice President Annette
Lu, more than 300,000 invalid
ballots and now two fiercely loyal camps face each other in the streets.

But what better time than now for Beijing to end this matter once and for all?

What Would Have to Happen for Beijing NOT Step in

Unlike the US after Florida, the opposition KMT
would have to make Taiwan stand still and deal with this problem.

While Taiwan stands still, the opposition must then turn Chen into a pariah
as he scrambles to 1) Make Taiwan run again 2) Show everybody his wound 3) Demonstrate
that after the failure if his referendum, his ridiculously thin margin of victory
and the host of invalid ballots (nice tactic!), he is still the rightful leader
of Taiwan.

Chen would have to fail and his government fall, allowing the KMT to slip into
leadership, to the relief of the US, Beijing, the EU and everybody else out
there who was getting sick of Chen stirring up trouble in the midst of the War
on Terror.

This would be a nice development for world stability, if not for the aspirations
of those independent-minded Taiwanese who loathe a return to KMT, and eventually
Beijing, rule.

The Invalid Ballot

Although this seems like a possible conclusion
to the Taiwan problem at hand, President Chen Shui Bian and his followers are
just as desperate to avoid defeat as Beijing is to see them defeated. Defeat
in Taiwan for either the DPP or the KMT means to be wiped from existence.

And herein lies the true meaning of the Invalid Ballot – 300,000 people in
Taiwan would rather see both co-exist in peace and prosperity, with justice
and fair-minded leadership for all – or see both of the parties wiped from the
face of the planet. (Americans take note.)

The Invalid Swing Vote demands quick reconciliation and a thorough anti-corruption
crusade – which may take out KMT leader Lien Chan and his running-mate James
Soong, both implicated in greed.

A wise Chen will be the first to extend the olive branch, placating the Invalids,
restoring peace and sweeping the rug out from his scandal embroiled opponents.

What will the KMT do in this situation? To refuse the olive branch invites
further instability and unrest, but insures their political survival for the
time being. To accept means dormancy until the next election.

Is now the time for the Taiwan question to be answered? If so, the KMT and
DPP will duke it out until someone stops them.

Fear Not the US

Mainlanders are convinced that the US will not
go to war with China over Taiwan. A few arguments revolve around emotional,
nationalistic "We are much stronger than Iraq" and "Remember North Korea?" statements,
but even a cursory look at the situation would suggest that the US does not
have the means or the will to fight in the Taiwan Straits in 2004, if it comes
to that.

The US and China enjoy a relatively
healthy economic relationship, that is growing more and more interdependent
as the days go on, which is a strong deterrent to war – much stronger than
any similarity in political systems could be.

And the rather salient fact that war between China and the US at this current
point in history would be regarded by all and sundry as the beginning of WWIV
and perhaps the very end of the world as we know it, with Afghans, Iraqis, Sudanese,
Serbs, Arabs of all shape and size, Palestinians and every other enemy of the
current Superpower rising up and … well you get the picture.

So if Beijing were to cruise across the Straits and restore order, the US would
scream and holler, lose a serious chunk of face and then start doing the diplomatic
hustle.

But then again, we are still under the Bush Administration. So anything is
possible.