Salter: Senate primary will cast shadow over Neshoba

STARKVILLE — The 2014 Neshoba County Fair political speaking lineup presents an interesting opportunity for voters to measure the length of the political shadow of the state's interminable Republican Senate primary.

So how much will Mississippi's bitter Republican U.S. Senate primary impact the speeches delivered at Mississippi's premier political stump?

Based on the certifications of the executive committees of both the Republican and Democratic parties, the state's attention should be focused clearly on the November U.S. Senate general election showdown between incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran and Democratic nominee and former 1st District U.S. Rep. Travis Childers. Both are slated to speak at the Neshoba County Fair, both on Thursday, July 31.

Childers will speak at 10:20 a.m. with Cochran to follow at 10:30 a.m. Those speeches should mark the beginning of the stretch run in the race.

While the lingering failure of Republican challenger state Sen. Chris McDaniel to concede the race to Cochran remains the center of both media attention and interpersonal discussion as the state's electorate waits to see the promised election challenge unfold, the fact remains that state Democrats have already used the confusion and inertia of the Republican primary to their political advantage.

State Democrats have utilized every opportunity – led by state party chairman Rickey Cole – to rub the Mississippi Republican Party's nose in the ongoing internecine feud going on between so-called "establishment" Republicans and members of the Tea Party and affiliated groups.

The almost even split between Republicans loyal to Cochran and those supporting McDaniel has presented state Democrats with an enticing target as they seek to pour as much political salt into the wound of that split as possible. That target becomes larger as a significant number of McDaniel supporters make public pronouncement of their intention either to sit out the November general election altogether, cast a write-in vote for someone other than Cochran, or cross over and vote for Childers against Cochran.

Those public declarations are as easily accessible as a Facebook or Twitter page and they embolden Democrats and national groups who finance Democratic candidates. Childers could easily be the beneficiary of those developments.

But it's likewise true that Mississippi has been a reliable red state in federal politics for decades. Without the divisive GOP Senate primary, there would be virtually no speculation that the Republican nominee would not cruise to a general election win in Mississippi.

The fact that Mississippi will be holding statewide courthouse to statehouse elections in 2015 in a political environment heated by the establishment/Tea Party split is wasted on no one in Mississippi – particularly not the seven-of-eight statewide elected officials who are Republicans.

Embedded in the anger and resentment of the McDaniel supporters are the threats, both implied and express, that McDaniel's supporters will attempt to empower challengers to Republican statewide and legislative candidates they believe supported Cochran or failed to support McDaniel.

Expect Republican speeches at Neshoba to be more conservative than usual and expect Democratic speeches at Neshoba this year to goad and pick at the festering political wounds of the GOP Senate Primary. Expect 2015 trial balloons to be held to a minimum, while Democrats are expected to be as aggressive as they've been in many years.

The Senate race will definitely cast a long shadow, one that likely will span the approach of this year's general election stretch run and next year's statewide races.