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HEBRON — Northern Kentucky Republicans see their votes as crucial to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s re-election bid in 2014.

And if their showing Saturday night is any indication, the tea party will play a large role in determining the outcome in this region.

Tea Party activists accounted for 150 of the 450 people at the Fourth Congressional District GOP Lincoln-Reagan Day dinner where McConnell spoke on Saturday in Hebron.

“I think the path to that seat in the Senate goes through Northern Kentucky,” said Rick Brueggemann, chairman of the Boone County Republicans and tea party activist. “He has to win Northern Kentucky.”

While many in the tea party/libertarian wing of the GOP have criticized McConnell in the past, the Senate minority leader believes he’s made progress with this group.

McConnell cited support from tea party favorite U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, the hiring of Paul’s former campaign manager Jesse Benton as his campaign manager and the endorsement of TheTeaParty.net.

“I don’t have any sense of entitlement,” McConnell told the Enquirer after his speech Saturday evening. “I’m going to have to earn both the nomination and the general election, but I’m happy with where we are at this point.”

Since he took office last November with a wave of tea party support, U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Garrison, said McConnell has backed him on most of the issues he’s brought forward, including legalizing industrial hemp, stopping the Internet sales tax and auditing the Federal Reserve.

“He has supported almost every issue that’s important to me,” Massie said. “Those are all really important issues to me. I think they’re important to the tea party, and he’s been supportive of them.”

Tea party remains skeptical of senator's voting record

But McConnell’s votes for the Patriot Act and the federal bailouts still rankle some members of the tea party.

A viable tea party candidate challenge to McConnell could dash his re-election hopes, Brueggemann said.

“Because of his voting record, it’s going to be hard for anybody to believe anything is different,” he said.

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“There’s too long of a record. It’s going to be really hard for tea party folks to accept the change of heart.”

Northern Kentucky Tea Party President Larry Robinson tempered his response when asked whether McConnell has made progress with the tea party.

“I don’t know where that’s at,” Robinson said.

“I want to hear his plans, that’s for sure. He needs to address the tea party.”

McConnell’s recent overtures to the tea party haven’t convinced

Bryan Miller, a Union city commissioner.

“If somebody steps forward to run against him, I will evaluate their principles against his,” Miller said.

“What more do I need to say. There’s not really too much he can do right now to get my vote.”

A strong opponent has not emerged

McConnell, however, has encountered little opposition so far in his 2014 re-election bid.

Two Democrats, Owensboro contractor Ed Marksberry and Lexington musician Bennie J. Smith, have declared they will run, but more well-known, established Democratic candidates have yet to step forward. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and former Miss America Heather French Henry have said they will consider a run but haven’t decided.

Grimes, when asked by the Enquirer at an appearance in Northern Kentucky 12 days ago, gave no clear indication about a possible Senate run.

“I am still talking and listening to my supporters across the commonwealth and giving it the due diligence it deserves,” Grimes said. “It’s listening to the people who helped me become secretary of state, Kentucky’s only female constitutional officer. Their opinion and their voice matters. Those are private conversations I’m continuing to have.”

Whoever runs against McConnell will have to have thick skin. The 12-minute tape that surfaced this year of a McConnell campaign strategy session against actress Ashley Judd, who was considering a Senate run, recorded McConnell telling staffers he will attack any political opponent who “sticks their head up.”

Judd dropped out shortly thereafter.

McConnell has already amassed a sizable war chest for his 2014 re-election bid. He raised $1.8 million in the first three months of 2013 and had $8.6 million on hand as of April 1, according to the Federal Election Commission.

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“He understands the importance of preparedness,” said Steve Robertson, chairman of the Republican Party of Kentucky. “I think a lot of would-be Democrats that would run, they have to answer the question, ‘Do they want to be subjected to the most thorough vetting of their lifetime?’ And it can be a daunting thought.”

The recent IRS and Benghazi scandals could further discourage Democrats, said Massie.

“I think the Democrats taking a look at it will probably back down when they realize they’ve got really long odds, and they’re swimming upstream in a midterm election with everything that’s unwinding at the administration right now,” Massie said.

But some polls show a Democratic candidate might have a chance.

A Public Policy Polling poll released May 28 showed McConnell in a tie with Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes at 45 percent.

Half of the 556 Kentucky voters polled said McConnell’s votes to cut Social Security and Medicare and his opposition to raising the minimum wage would discourage them from voting for him.

McConnell's support in NKY is still sizable

But a good portion of the 450 Republicans who attended the Lincoln Day Dinner thought McConnell’s seat in the Senate is secure.

“He’s done a lot of great things for Kentucky over the years, and I don’t think people are likely to forget that,” said Kimberly Moser of Taylor Mill.

McConnell has the upper hand on many of the national issues important to Kentucky voters, said Sen. Ernie Harris, R-Prospect, from Oldham County.

“He will run a very aggressive campaign no matter who his opponent is, and I think when you look at the fact that most of the issues he’s going to be running on are national issues, it bodes well for his re-election,” Harris said. ■