Posted by colonels19 on 11/16/2012 4:19:00 PM (view original):It is an average, not just a raw number, I don't know it off the top of my head, perhaps when I get home....I think I have Ks valued at half

Half a run or...?

I'm not trying to hammer you on this, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind the formula.

It's a lot simpler than this run business...an extra half an out, kind of a penalty for not putting the ball in play...do you think these statgeeks got paid for creating their stats...just curious

What? That's nuts. An extra half an out for a strikeout?

Lol, fair enough, it's a penalty for not putting the ball in play...my stat is kind of a conglomeration of AVG, SLG, and OBP + SB and CS...SLG and OBP kind of neglect AVG in general

the problem, dahs, is that this is a discussion forum where people offer their opinions. And you present everything you say as some know-it-all, expert fact and completely disregard everything else anyone says. Like in the O's thread - I say "The O's could use Player A", and you respond with "No, they have no use for him. They need Players B and C. End of story."

Your opinion is just an opinion, like everyone else's - you are not the ultimate authority on life and all thing's baseball. Which is a big reason everyone else thinks Mike is a dick at times - but he's cool with that (and will actually occasionally honour the validity of someone else's opinion).

You come off as an arrogant ***** (and sometimes a raging dick) - if you're cool with that, so be it. If you're not, then stop acting like it.

Posted by colonels19 on 11/16/2012 4:19:00 PM (view original):It is an average, not just a raw number, I don't know it off the top of my head, perhaps when I get home....I think I have Ks valued at half

Half a run or...?

I'm not trying to hammer you on this, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind the formula.

It's a lot simpler than this run business...an extra half an out, kind of a penalty for not putting the ball in play...do you think these statgeeks got paid for creating their stats...just curious

What? That's nuts. An extra half an out for a strikeout?

Lol, fair enough, it's a penalty for not putting the ball in play...my stat is kind of a conglomeration of AVG, SLG, and OBP + SB and CS...SLG and OBP kind of neglect AVG in general

AVG is a component of SLG and certainly impacts OBP - don't you think using them all overweights AVG?

Triple-counting singles obviously doesn't make the stat better, it makes it worse. You'd do much better adding extra credit for the walks instead since they're only counted once and are more than half as valuable as singles. But you don't know what weights he's using. If it's anything close to 1:1:1, obviously making singles THREE times as valuable as walks is borderline nonsensical. But on the other hand, traditionalists are very into batting average. Most likely this is a product of the fact that it's easy to calculate and used to show up in newspapers along with HR and RBI, sometimes SB. So it was ingrained that it's important. The truth is some very good offensive prediction models totally ignore average; you can get a very good picture of how valuable a player is offensively from only OBP, SLG, SB, and CS. But you can't fault a guy for trying to develop a model that his grandfather might be able to appreciate. I think putting some extra weight on average provides a useful stat for things like MVP prediction and perceived value, even if it actually reduces the correlation of the stat to true offensive value (that's not to say that guys with high averages are inherently not valuable; obviously a guy like Cabrera is helped by this, and he is an offensive stud; what I do mean is that if you compare, say, 2008 Adam Dunn who batted .236 with an .898 OPS to 2008 Ichiro who batted .310 but only OPSed .747, triple counting the singles really overrates Ichiro relative to Dunn. If you use the Bill James ratio of something like 1.7*OBP + SLG it actually moves Dunn further ahead of Ichiro, so a stat that instead brings Ichiro back closer is clearly missing the boat. On the other hand, at least it gives him some credit for his ridiculous 43/47 stolen bases/attempts.)

I agree - I don't think you need AVG at all but I'm not trying to fault anyone - I'm asking a question. Since I don't know how he's weighting them, I'm giving him a chence to explain if he's interested in doing so. I'm interested in how he's doing it since AVG is in SLG and in OBP and he says those things neglect AVG, that's all.

If his metric is trying to predict MVP voting results, then overweighting AVG is probably appropriate. I don't think that's what he said it's doing, though.