On the eve of his trip to the United States and Europe, Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf has hinted at the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations
with Israel. Such a move potentially could pave the way for normalization of
relations between Israel and the greater Muslim world. However, several structural
problems will impede any attempts by Islamabad to follow through, given the
negative impact that this strategy would have both on the domestic front and
within the wider Muslim community. Instead, the Musharraf regime appears to
be trying to extract economic benefits from the United States and Europe in
exchange for possible recognition of Israel.

Analysis

A few hours before embarking on a two-week trip to the United States, Britain,
France and Germany, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said during an interview
with GEO TV that Islamabad would consider establishing diplomatic relations
with Israel. Media reports already have been rife with speculation about the
possibility of such a move, following earlier statements by Israel's ambassador
to the European Union, Oded Eran, who said that the Jewish state seeks diplomatic
recognition from Islamic nations, including Pakistan.

Although it would not be impossible for Pakistan to normalize ties with Israel,
there are several structural barriers that make this a distant possibility at
best. These include both the tough opposition within Pakistan, where there is
a growing Islamist constituency, and the stance of the wider Arab and Muslim
world. Nevertheless, the prospects for geopolitical concessions from Washington
and European states is too enticing for Musharraf to pass up: At this juncture,
Islamabad has an excellent opportunity to obtain a quid pro quo arrangement
with Washington. By floating the idea of diplomatic recognition for Israel,
Pakistan stands to gain a special status with Washington that is worth more
than mere cash or military aid.

The sudden optimism over the possibility of Pakistani-Israeli relations emerged
amid talk of the U.S.-backed peace plan for the Middle East. However, that peace
plan appears to have hit a snag, dimming the prospects for rapprochement between
Israel and Arab states. Musharraf has made Pakistan's recognition of Israel
contingent upon achievement of the peace plan's goals -- and although Islamabad
maintains an independent policy, officials do not want it to conflict with that
of Pakistan's Arab and Muslim allies.

In addition, recognition of Israel likely would have detrimental effects on
Musharraf's standing at home. He already faces intense political pressure over
the proposed Legal Framework Order -- a package of constitutional amendments
that would give him sweeping new powers -- and his dual titles as president
and chief of army staff. And the opposition, particularly the growing Islamist
constituency, accuses him of subservience to the United States, since Islamabad
has cooperated with Washington's war against Islamist militant groups.

That said, why would Musharraf hint at offering normalized relations to Israel?

In recent days, the Pakistani leader repeatedly has said he wants Washington
to do more for his country, in light of its cooperation with the war against
terrorism. By hinting at possible recognition for Israel, Pakistan might be
seeking to win special economic status with the United States. In other words,
normalizing relations with Israel likely is being used as a bargaining counter
in negotiating a new regional and global role for Pakistan.

It is noteworthy that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- who has
personal ties to Musharraf and whose country long ago established normal relations
with Israel -- visited Pakistan prior to Musharraf's departure for the West.
It is possible that Turkey might be acting as a mediator between Pakistan and
Israel.

However, even if that is the case, Pakistan's problem in selling any normalization
of relations with Israel to the Muslim and Arab worlds remains.

Judging from the carefully worded statements coming not just from Musharraf
but also from Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali and Information Minister
Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, it appears that Islamabad is merely testing the waters.
Following Musharraf's comments to GEO TV, reporters sought clarification from
both Jamali and Ahmed, and subsequent headlines stated that the top two civilian
government officials denied that Pakistan would extend diplomatic ties to Israel.
Yet a closer look at their actual statements suggests that they have not actually
issued categorical denials.

Instead, Jamali has said that "any Pakistani, mind my words, any Pakistani
will never favor any such thing, which would erode the interests of the country,"
English-language daily The Nation reported, adding that such decisions must
not and would not be made without taking the whole nation and Parliament into
confidence. When asked for his comments, Ahmed deferred to the prime minister's
remarks, noting that the opposition at this time should leave the "politics
of egoism and rigidity" behind.

None of these statements actually read as a denial of Musharraf's statements,
but in fact appear to signal to the Pakistani people and political opposition
that they should keep an open mind on the topic of Islamabad's Israel policy.

If the government should move to extend diplomatic relations to Israel, it
will have to sell the idea domestically under the government's "Pakistan
first" slogan -- saying that the move was made in the country's best interests.
The "Pakistan first" motto advances the idea of policies that benefit
Pakistan as opposed to promoting pan-Islamic issues. The Islamist opposition,
on the other hand, has called for the government to adopt a pan-Islamic stance,
particularly on policies that touch on Afghanistan, Iraq and the Palestinians.

Musharraf also could point out -- as he has before -- that Israel delivers
massive military assistance to Pakistan's archrival, India. That growing security
relationship could be used as a lever to get the Pakistani public on board with
a new Israel policy. And the government could argue that some Arab and Muslim
states -- notably Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Turkey and certain Persian
Gulf states -- appear to be normalizing their relationships with Israel. Officials
could argue that, after all, Pakistan never has had a direct conflict with Israel.
In fact, Musharraf already has said that Pakistan maintains relations with India
-- against which it has fought three wars -- so why not with Israel?

Given that India is a key variable in Islamabad's foreign policy calculus,
the Musharraf government wants to strengthen Pakistan's regional and global
position -- and recognition of Israel is an excellent opportunity to obtain
a quid pro quo arrangement with Washington. In return, Pakistan would stand
to gain much more than cash or military hardware -- two commodities it can acquire
through less dramatic measures. Rather, knowing the premium that the Bush administration
has placed on a comprehensive Middle East peace agreement, Islamabad is offering
Washington what it badly needs. Pakistan, a key Muslim state and the only nuclear
Muslim power, could facilitate and accelerate the path toward a general recognition
movement, particularly in the Arab world.

However, a catch-22 still applies.

To capitalize on Pakistan's trial balloon, Washington must be able to use it
to advance its goals of a broader peace in the Middle East. At the same time,
Musharraf has made any policy of recognition for Israel contingent upon the
success of Washington's peace plan. With rejectionists like Hamas, Palestinian
Islamic Jihad and their secular counterparts threatening the plan, it remains
to be seen how a Palestinian state can be brought into being -- and that makes
it exceedingly difficult for Musharraf to move forward with his proposal.