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ANALYSIS: Mulcair faces uphill battle in Edmonton

OTTAWA—Thomas Mulcair faces an uphill battle to keep his job, party insiders concede as New Democrats begin to look toward their convention in Edmonton this April.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has to continue acknowledging the fact something went seriously wrong in the last campaign — going from 95 seats to just 44, losing popular MPs, being swept out of Toronto and Atlantic Canada, and losing ground in Quebec. (JIM YOUNG / REUTERS file photo)

The Star spoke with a number of NDP veterans — some still with the party and others now on the outside — on Mulcair’s chances when he faces the membership for the first time since October’s crushing election loss.

While Mulcair is not facing any organized movement in Edmonton to replace him, and nobody seems to be vying for the job behind the scenes, neither does there appear to be any concerted effort within the party to support him.

For some, even Mulcair himself — despite a return to talking about core NDP values and touring the country to meet with party activists – is not making a strong enough case for why he’s still the guy.

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Asked to make his case last month, Mulcair ignored the question and re-offered some rehearsed lines about working hard and listening to the grassroots.

“Our social democratic values are essential in our society, and for over 50 years, the NDP has brought that vision forward in the House of Commons and I plan to continue to do that,” Mulcair continued, in a testy exchange with a reporter outside the Commons.

“I’m there at the will of the members of the party. I continue to meet with them. I hope to have the best result possible in Edmonton.”

If party members thought the NDP campaign lacked passion, they probably won’t be stirred by answers like that.

Mulcair will have to find a way to re-energize the 800 or so delegates who have already registered for convention and hold his political fate in their hands — or at least 70 per cent of them. While Mulcair has been hesitant to set a floor for his continued leadership, NDP party president Rebecca Blaikie said last month he realistically needs an endorsement of 70 per cent to stay on.

He has to continue acknowledging the fact something went seriously wrong in the last campaign — going from 95 seats to just 44, losing popular MPs like Andrew Cash, Peggy Nash, Jack Harris, and Megan Leslie, being swept out of Toronto and Atlantic Canada and losing ground in Quebec — while asking the membership to trust him for one more go.

In that effort, he’s got a couple of things working for him. First, he has a sense of who will actually be on the convention floor. Some party staff are already doing “delegate outreach,” part logistics and part information-gathering. Sources say the feedback from those outreach efforts are working back up to the leader’s office.

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In that office, Mulcair has installed party stalwarts Ray Guardia, one of the architects of 2011’s Orange Wave, and long-time staffer Ricardo Fillipone, into senior roles. Multiple sources said the shake-up in Mulcair’s inner circle puts capability over personal loyalty to Mulcair himself. One said if anyone can pull it off for Mulcair, it’s Guardia.

One source said Friday that Mulcair’s office is in full-on campaign mode, identifying candidates and tracking voting intentions.

While caucus has largely been silent on endorsements — you’ll often get some version of “that’s up to the members to decide” — popular British Columbia MP Nathan Cullen revealed in a recent op-ed on democratic reform that he’s backing Mulcair. Sources say the NDP’s rookie MPs are also more or less supportive of Mulcair’s leadership.

Working against Mulcair is geography, for starters. While holding the convention in Edmonton means many disappointed Atlantic Canadians may not make the journey, and there will likely be fewer delegates from Toronto ridings they lost, sources say the NDP’s Alberta membership are not overly warm towards Mulcair at the moment.

The immediate reason appears to be Mulcair’s decision to vote against a Conservative-backed motion to support the Energy East pipeline, but there are suggestions of irritants extending further back to the lead-up to the October election.

Over the past week, Mulcair has been touring Western Canada, including Vancouver and Calgary. On Saturday, Mulcair is in the GTA to attend the International Women’s Day march and meet with party officials and activists.

Then there is, of course, the lingering hangover from last October’s election that saw the party slide from government-in-waiting back to third place. Some delegates, especially on the far left of the party, are unlikely to forgive Mulcair for allowing himself to be outflanked by progressive promises from Liberals.

Despite the factors working against him, insiders say it’s possible for Mulcair to pull it off and stay on at least another two years at the helm. One senior New Democrat, with a role in organizing the convention, said they think if you polled delegates already registered, the majority would be undecided.

Another insider, no fan of Mulcair’s, said they don’t feel the need to agitate against him because he’s got no chance.

Whichever one is right, the next few weeks will be decisive for both Mulcair’s political future and for the direction of the NDP itself.

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