“Late last year we wrote: ‘Republicans can expect to face the toughest political conditions next year since 2006, when the party lost control of both the House and the Senate,’” Law wrote. “Despite a small uptick in President Trump’s approval rating and a tightening of the congressional generic ballot in the GOP’s favor, we see no reason to adjust that forecast.”

Three hours after Ryan bowed out, I asked one top GOP donor if he’d gotten Law’s memo.

Dear Mitch, Eat a giant bag of cocks. I'm expecting him to run, and lose this year. I so can hope. The Teachers are in open revolt, the governor here is digging a hole deeper every day and I'm watching Trumpgret in real time.

Dem's don't get cocky. get out and vote, make calls and don't think this shit is in the bag, election day is SEVEN fucking months away.

Not really. American politics is a really good example of why parliamentary systems work. No one fucking pays attention here. The independents just run back and forth on a seesaw expecting it to balance one day. Dems in power and shits fucked up: vote republican. Republicans in charge and the bank evicts you: vote Democrat. Why do people wonder why things don’t get done? We have two options and people vote based on emotion instead of paying attention.

Gross over simplification but I've now been through enough election cycles where I was paying attention to notice a definite pattern. Sample bias because I know some history prior to my eighteenth birthday, I'm just cynical about the "blue wave."