Business Directories

Gold retreats from highs as Fed-led rally fizzles

London, April 10, 2012

Gold steadied on Tuesday, surrendering earlier gains as a rally sparked by expectations that a sluggish US employment market could fuel further monetary easing ran out of steam in the face of a firming dollar and easing appetite for risk.

Ultra-loose US monetary policy, which keeps real interest rates and consequently the opportunity cost of holding gold low, is a key driver of higher bullion prices.

Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at $1,641.90 an ounce, well below an earlier high of $1,654.10. US gold futures for June delivery were off 70 cents at $1,643.20.

Spot prices have fallen in five of the last six weeks.

Analysts betting on higher prices say they are worried that Friday's soft US payrolls data, coupled with the end of a jewellers' strike in India, had not driven prices higher.

"It looks like we need bigger and better news to support gold right now," Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen said.

"Traders have been wrongfooted on numerous occasions during the last two months on QE on/off talks."

"The non-farm payrolls and India ending the strike should have triggered a stronger bounce, but at this moment, where general softness in commodities has been seen, traders want to see the cash before jumping back into gold in a major way."

The euro failed to hold onto early gains against the dollar and drifted lower, as cautious buying linked to hopes that soft US payrolls data might bring forward another round of quantitative easing tailed off.

Other assets seen as higher risk also retreated, with European shares falling more than 1 per cent, oil prices slipping and base metals on the back foot.

Soft Chinese import data raised concerns about commodities demand growth in the world's largest consumer of many raw materials.

Safe-haven German Bund yields hit their lowest since September and the cost of insuring Italian and Spanish debt against default rose sharply.

Gold demand in number one buyer India picked up slightly at the start of the week after a three-week-long jewellers' strike ended, but dealers said demand was surprisingly sluggish.

"For gold to turn a corner and build momentum, physical buying really needs to kick in," said UBS in a note on Tuesday.

"The end of the jewellers' strike in India provides a good foundation, especially with the Akshaya Tritiya festival on April 24. But prices need to be appropriate.

"Last week, Indian demand only became impressive when gold traded below $1,620," it added.

"Appetite from India so far this week has been quite modest. Premiums in China have been above average of late. But in terms of volumes... gold turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is not particularly exceptional."

China's gold output was 26.9 tonnes in February, up 11 percent from January, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on Tuesday, after mining activity rebounded back after the Lunar New Year holidays in January.

China is the world's biggest gold producer and had record output last year, although its domestic demand still outstrips supply by hundreds of tonnes a year.

Among other precious metals, silver eased 0.1 per cent to $31.50 an ounce. The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, rose to its highest since early January on Tuesday.

Silver imports into India, the biggest consumer of the white metal, are likely to decline up to 27 per cent this year on expectations of volatile prices, the head of the country's biggest bullion importer, Scotia Mocatta's Sunil Kashyap, said on Monday.

Spot platinum was down 0.3 per cent at $1,600.99 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 0.6 per cent at $634.75 an ounce. – Reuters