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Have your say !! Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !! TypePadIs Russia wagging the Liberal political tail in Ottawa?tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b8d1a40483970c2016-02-24T15:40:20-05:002016-02-24T15:57:49-05:00Is Russia wagging the Liberal political tail in Ottawa? –Walter Derzko CONCLUSION: If USA/ Canada is training YPG soldiers and Canadian volunteers are fighting together with Kurdish YPG troops, who appear to be allied with Assad, ISIS and Russia, then...SmartEconomy

Is Russia wagging the Liberal political tail in Ottawa? –Walter Derzko

CONCLUSION:

If USA/ Canada is training YPG soldiers and Canadian volunteers are fighting together with Kurdish YPG troops, who appear to be allied with Assad, ISIS and Russia, then there is a problem!! By Walter Derzko, SFi (CONNECTING THE DOTS)

N.B. Hat tip to Bohdan C for spotting the Hammond quote below-WD

FACT: In January 2014, before Moscow invaded and annexed Crimea, Mr. Putin awarded the former Liberal prime minister- Jean Chretien, Russia’s Order of Friendship for “his substantial contribution to the strengthening and development of friendship and co-operation with the Russian Federation.” [1]

FACT:Former Canadian Liberal PM Jean Chretien (1993-2003) visited Moscow in April 2015 and had a secret meeting with Putin. Publically, details are unknown, however, the InterAction Council said Mr. Chrétien, who is the co-chair of their organization, will “report back to the group on his discussions with the Russian President.” Former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma is also on the Interaction Council [1]

FACT: The Liberal Party in Canada has withdrawn CF-18 Hornet air support and has promised instead that it would send trainers to train Kurdish troops on the ground. [2] “Western nations have seen them as reliable allies in the war and have provided them with air support, training, equipment and cash. As a result, the YPG, the Kurdish force that is battling ISIL, has been able to carve out its own mini-state in northeastern Syria.” [14] N.B. It’s not clear from recent news reports that Canada is now directly training YPG troops, but if they are, there could be a problem. The Canadian press seems to use Pershmerga and YPG interchangeably (see below)

FACT:Canadian volunteers are fighting with a Kurdish faction called YPG says National Post [3], [15]

FACT:“Britain has seen "disturbing evidence" that Kurdish YPG forces are coordinating with the Syrian regime and the Russian air force, the Foreign Secretary- Philip Hammond has said.” [4]

FACT: “The Kurdish YPG, which has become the West’s main ground force against Isil, has taken advantage of a massive regime offensive in north Syria to seize territory of its own from US-backed rebels, effectively leaving Washington in a proxy war with itself. "What we have seen over the last weeks is very disturbing evidence of coordination between Syrian Kurdish forces, the Syrian regime and the Russian air force which are making us distinctly uneasy about the Kurds' role in all of this," Philip Hammond told Parliament on Tuesday. After years of marginalization at the hands of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria’s Kurds have emerged as one of the war’s key power brokers, enjoying the support of both Washington and Moscow, even as the two powers square off on opposing sides of the conflict. [4]

FACT:Russia and FSB /formerly KGB is funding and funneling arms to terrorists in the Middle East; “BEIRUT — Lebanese Hezbollah field commanders with troops fighting in Syria tell The Daily Beast they are receiving heavy weapons directly from Russia with no strings attached. The commanders say there is a relationship of complete coordination between the Assad regime in Damascus, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. At the same time they say the direct interdependence between Russia and Hezbollah is increasing.” [5]

FACT:Russians have been fighting for ISIS at least since 2011 [6]

FACT: The KGB/ Kremlin trained most of Saddam Hussein’s top Baathist army leaders, who then went on to form ISIS [7], [9] “The KGB, the East German Stasi and Saddam Hussein’s Mukhabarat intelligence agency are the direct progenitors of the Islamic State security apparatus [7]

FACT: Islam is a political movement masquerading as a religion (3:15 of audio) Admiral (Ret) James Lyons on Islam as a threat doctrine. [8]

FACT: RUSSIA IS ISIS or ISIS = Russia ; Both ISIS and the Assad regime are led by military and intelligence officers trained in the KGB and both rely on propaganda as a means of internal control, not only of controlling their international image, which is why both so virulently repress independent media that contradicts their officially sanctioned version. [9], [10], [11], [12], [13] N.B. Why did the world know about Osama bin Laden, 10 minutes after 9/11. But I bet you can’t rhyme off who the leaders of ISIS are !!!

FACT:Russia has historic and current ties to the PKK/ PYD Party [11]

FACT:“Turkey considers YPG a terrorist group because of its affiliation to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The party’s armed wing, the PKK, has been waging a war against Turkey (a NATO member) since 1984 as it fights for greater rights for Kurds in Turkey. In December, Turkish fighter jets attacked PKK supply camps in northern Iraq. Over the last several weeks, new fighting has erupted between Turkish troops and the PKK in the Turkish city of Diyarbakir” [14]

[5] BEIRUT — Lebanese Hezbollah field commanders with troops fighting in Syria tell The Daily Beast they are receiving heavy weapons directly from Russia with no strings attached. The commanders say there is a relationship of complete coordination between the Assad regime in Damascus, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. At the same time they say the direct interdependence between Russia and Hezbollah is increasing.

[7] “The KGB, the East German Stasi and Saddam Hussein’s Mukhabarat intelligence agency are the direct progenitors of the Islamic State security apparatus. The proof lies in a cache of documents uncovered after a shootout last year between Syrian rebels and an Iraqi intelligence officer now believed to be the strategic mastermind behind the Islamic State takeover of northern Syria”. Source: BEN MACINTYRE ; THE TIMES APRIL 25, 2015 12:00AM Islamic State owes more to Kremlin than Koran

Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 27 October [Commentary by Nihat Ali Ozcan: "Russia and the PKK at the Crossroads of Syria"] Russia's increased presence in Syria has not only changed political and military balances but also reopened the "covert operation" files of intelligence organizations. Russia's increased presence in Syria has not only changed political and military balances but also reopened the "covert operation" files of intelligence organizations. This being Syria, the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] - a terrorist organization that was the "guest" of Damascus for 36 years - could of course not be ignored. Al-Asad and Russia did exactly that. They never forgot their old friend, the PKK, which they inherited from the Cold War. They remained in contact [with the PKK] throughout the [Syrian] civil war. Now, the PKK/PYD [Democratic Union Party] has become a prized commodity in the war market and is growing impatient about claiming its own rewards.4

Abstract/The associate of [former Chechen separatist leader] Dzhokhar Dudayev and the former field commander claims that the Kremlin was involved in the creation of Islamic State and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is controlling it.

Full Text

Excerpt from report by private Ukrainian ICTV television on 22 November

[Presenter] It has become known this week that Chechens are fighting on the side of Islamic State [IS]. [Pro-Moscow Chechen leader] Ramzan Kadyrov confirmed that almost 500 of his fighters had joined the terrorists. He naturally considers them traitors. However, another well-known Chechen, Akhmed Zakayev, told an absolutely different version to Fakty Tyzhnya [this news programme]. The associate of [former Chechen separatist leader] Dzhokhar Dudayev and the former field commander claims that the Kremlin was involved in the creation of Islamic State and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is controlling it. Let us hear an excerpt from the interview that we recorded in London. [Zakayev] I have an absolute, 100 per cent, evidence base that IS is controlled by Russian special services today. Those are Iraqi military men who worked under Saddam's rule [former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein]. You know they were Putin's and KGB's allies. Another group comes from the Northern Caucasus which was sent there as soon as it, the so-called IS, started to be formed. These particular secret agents exert their influence and are controlled by the Russian special services. I am more than confident that Putin expected something to happen in Paris or some other place. This action brought political results or political dividends only to one person in the world, Putin, and Putin's regime. Of course, it would be naive to think that everything happened by accident there or was a coincidence. In any case, I am sure that it happened under a planned scenario.

Litvinenko stated that "all the bloodiest terrorists of the world" were connected to FSB-KGB, including Carlos "The Jackal" Ramírez, Yassir Arafat, Saddam Hussein, Abdullah Öcalan, Wadie Haddad of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, George Hawi who led the Communist Party of Lebanon, Ezekias Papaioannou from Cyprus, Sean Garland from Ireland and many others. He said that all of them were trained, funded, and provided with weapons, explosives and counterfeit documents in order to carry out terrorist attacks worldwide and that each act of terrorism made by these people was carried out according to the task and under the rigid control of the KGB of the USSR.[61] Litvinenko said that "the center of global terrorism is not in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan or the Chechen Republic. The terrorism infection creeps away worldwide from the cabinets of the Lubyanka Square and the Kremlin".[62][63]

The debate was sparked by a secret "Canadian Eyes Only" intelligence analysis by Transport Canada that looked at the Kurdish peshmerga, whom Canadian special forces operators have been instructing since late 2014. The report warns there are some factions of the militia group that are designated as terrorist entities under federal law. It focuses on the separate issue of Canadian volunteers who've gone to fight alongside the Kurds. "Any Canadians claiming to have links to organizations such as the People's Worker Party (PKK) are likely to become the subject of Canada's anti-terror legislation," says the report to the department, one of many federal agencies with a security assessment branch. The intelligence analysis, dated Nov. 28, 2014, and obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act, parses the various branches and factions of the peshmerga, which make up almost 60 per cent of Kurdish security forces in the region. One of the factions is the People's Worker Party, or PKK, which is designated as a terrorist entity under Canadian law. Turkey, a NATO ally, takes a particularly hard line on the PKK, and recently threatened to boycott United Nations-backed peace talks on Syria if a political group associated with the PKK was at the table. It is unclear how many Canadians — if any — are fighting with the PKK, or another faction known as the People's Protection Units, or YPG, but there have been several published reports of it happening since the war heated up in the summer of 2014. The YPG, which came to international attention during the siege of Kobani, has not been deemed a terrorist group.

#PTSD PTSD is triggered by excess oxidative stress or free radicals which are neutralised by Carbon 60 hydrated fullerenes, the highest natural antioxidant in the world https://www.academia.edu/11621073/Backgrounder_on_Carbon_60_Hydrated_Fullerenes_V6

Abstract

Recent study data support the role of oxidative stress in diverse psychiatric disorders. Oxidative stress results from an oxidant/antioxidant imbalance, an excess of oxidants and/or a depletion of antioxidants. There are numerous studies that indicate that free radicals (FRs) damage neurons, and then play an important role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and depression. Active oxygen can cause considerable damage and disrupt the important physiological functions of proteins, lipids, enzymes and DNA. The aim of our study was to investigate the possible differences in the concentration of tromboxane B2, 8-OHdG and protein carbonyls, as significant markers of oxidative damage, and urate, albumin and total protein concentrations as antioxidative molecules in PTSD patients in comparison to the healthy control group. The study included 74 male participants who were active soldiers in the Croatian armed forces from 1991 to 1995. 46 subjects with chronic and current PTSD were recruited from the Department of Psychiatry of Dubrava University Hospital during 2010, 28 healthy subjects were recruited in the same period during the regular medical examination at the Dubrava University Hospital.

Abstract

The oxidative imbalance appears to have an important role in anxiety development. Studies in both humans and animals have shown a strong correlation between anxiety and oxidative stress. In humans, for example, the increased malondialdehyde levels and discrepancies in antioxidant enzymes in erythrocytes have been observed. In animals, several studies also show that anxiety-like behavior is related to the oxidative imbalance. Moreover, anxiety-like behavior can be caused by pharmacological-induced oxidative stress. Studies using knockout or overexpression of antioxidant enzymes have shown a relationship between anxiety-like behavior and oxidative stress. Related factors of oxidative stress that could influence anxious behavior are revised, including impaired function of different mitochondrial proteins, inflammatory cytokines, and neurotrophic factors. It has been suggested that a therapy specifically focus in reducing reactive species production may have a beneficial effect in reducing anxiety. However, the neurobiological pathways underlying the effect of oxidative stress on anxiety symptoms are not fully comprehended. The challenge now is to identify the oxidative stress mechanisms likely to be involved in the induction of anxiety symptoms. Understanding these pathways could help to clarify the neurobiology of the anxiety disorder and provide tools for new discovery in therapies and preventive strategies.

INTRODUCTION

Anxiety is defined as a state of uneasiness and apprehension. It is a general term that describes a large range of related and commonly experienced subjective mental states which are normally evoked by a wide range of external and internal stressors. Anxiety is a normal emotional response but when it is inappropriate (at in inappropriate time or to an inappropriate degree, and is disruptive to the individual), it then constitutes an anxiety disorder [1, 2]. This condition is implicated in a number of psychiatric disorders, such obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), panic disorder (PD), social phobias (SP), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) [1].

Breakthrough in USA and Russian negotiations over Ukraine?tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb08ad8a74970d2016-01-17T00:49:12-05:002016-01-17T00:49:12-05:00Are we about to see a breakthrough in USA and Russian negotiations over Ukraine? A complete and total prisoner swap or change including illegally imprisoned Ukrainian pilot Nadia Savchenko and others? Walter DerzkoSmartEconomy

Are we about to see a breakthrough in USA and Russian negotiations over Ukraine? A complete and total prisoner swap or change including illegally imprisoned Ukrainian pilot Nadia Savchenko and others? Walter Derzko

Manipulating oil prices by provoking a war or funding terrorists in the Middle East? Russia's false flag in the Middle East?tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b8d1547296970c2015-09-02T07:14:00-04:002016-02-19T16:33:25-05:00Manipulating oil prices by provoking a war or funding terrorists in the Middle East? Russia's false flag in the Middle East? Importance: High Curiously, Russia has suddenly and unexpectedly changed its tone/ narrative with EU and the West or……… How...SmartEconomy

Manipulating oil prices by provoking a war or funding terrorists in the Middle East? Russia's false flag in the Middle East?Importance: High

Curiously, Russia has suddenly and unexpectedly changed its tone/ narrative with EU and the West or……… How Putin could manipulate oil prices by provoking a war or funding terrorists in the Middle East. Russia's false flag in the Persian Gulf?

From yesterday: We now hear signals for a new conciliatory tone (pacification or deception …one of the tactics of Soft Power Psychological Manipulation http://bit.ly/1ECIMAw ) or narrative from Putin; “Let’s fight terrorism together” or in reality “we’ll play both sides of the game, we fund terrorists and we can stop them after they do their job of boosting oil prices for us.”

Today Andrei Piontkovsky, says that:

“Putin is now frantically looking for a new way of peaceful coexistence (read war or “conflict of convenience” for Russia or terrorist attacks-WD) with the West. Having essentially suffered a serious defeat in all his plans- the idea of "Russian world", "New Russia or Novorossia", nuclear blackmail-he hopes to conclude a new deal with the West on the most favorable terms, so that all his actions do not look like an the ignominious defeat. All [RU] agents in the West, and now Putin will aggressively push the thesis-we need Putin, he can help us in Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, do not drive him into a corner, let's help him save face. Loud statements are expected at the UN General Assembly, where Putin will travel (in September, "Apostrophe") with his new plan of peaceful coexistence with the West. In the remaining time if he manages to sell Washington his military support to Assad as a major contribution of the Kremlin in the common cause of fighting terrorism, then this plan will gain some flesh and content. Program from Putin is to support Assad, and force the West to renounce support for Ukraine, according to Piontkovsky Source: Putin prepares to deal with the West, in order to avoid shame http://apostrophe.com.ua/article/world/ex-ussr/2015-09-02/putin-gotovit-sdelku-s-zapadom-chtobyi-izbejat-pozora/2199

Following the same identical script, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov today told the EU:

He offer a way to build EU-Russia relations as “a genuine partnership of equals. ”This included removing sanctions, which he said were shown to be costly and are therefore “hardly what the EU needs in the current volatile economic environment.” He also called for a pragmatism to be prized over ideology before concluding by speaking of the areas where he thought Russia and the EU should be actively cooperating. Listing terrorism, illegal migration, drug and human trafficking, he urged that Russia and the EU should reopen channels of communication that had been largely closed as a result of the Ukraine crisis, adding: “while Russia and the EU severely limited their cooperation, the terrorists did not.” Source: The European Union has been told to abandon its “messianic” project of exporting democracy by Russia. http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/09/02/abandon-your-messianic-project-of-exporting-democracy-russia-tells-eu/

Terrorists today can help PUTIN boost oil prices in the Middle East , just like they did in the 1970’s. What makes you think the Putin won’t replay this tried and true tactic from the KGB USSR playbook to reverse the price of oil now? (see historical evidence below)

Expect Russian incursions possibly into Syria (via the Russian naval base in Tartus in operation since 1971) or through proxies in Iran or Egypt

“While intellectual capacity was not the strongest quality of the Soviet leadership, they still understood the need to manipulate the oil market. Excerpts from Politburo materials indicate that the head of the Committee for State Security (KGB), Yury Andropov, facilitated contacts between the KGB and the Arab terrorists, who sought assistance for terrorist attacks on oil fields in order to keep energy prices high.5 The general resolution was that the Soviet Union should support the Arab (Palestinian--WD) terrorists in this battle.6”

Yegor Gaidar is director of the Institute for Economies in Transition in Moscow. Between 1991 and 1994, he was acting prime minister of Russia, minister of economy, and first deputy prime minister. Between 1993 and 2003, Gaidar was a founder and a co-chairman of the Russia’s Choice and the Union of Rightist Forces Parties, and a deputy of the State Duma. His most recent book, Gibel’ Imperii: Uroki dlyasovremennoi Rossii [The Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia], was published in 2006.

5. A note from Yury Andropov, the head of the Committee for State Security (KGB), to the general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Leonid Brezhnev. “O konspirativnoy vstreche rezinenta KGB v Livane c V. Haddadom” [Regarding the Conspiratorial Meeting of a KGB Resident in Lebanon with V. Haddad.] April 23 1974. No. 1071-A/OV.

6. A note from Yury Andropov, the head of the Committee for State Security (KGB), to the general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Leonid Brezhnev. “O peredache V. Haddadu partii inostrannogo oruzhiya i boepripasov k nemu” [Regarding the Handover of a Consignment of Foreign-Made Weapons and Ammunition to V. Haddad]. May 16, 1975. No.1218-A/OV.

165 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, Collapse and Implosion of the Russian Federation, a failed state just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko Aug 30 2015 tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb086abe4c970d2015-08-30T14:58:28-04:002015-08-30T14:58:28-04:00In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently...SmartEconomy

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime)

http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (Boris Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my eight cut. Thank you to everyone who has suggested new data points that I missed.

The Key Driving forces are in red and **

There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Or a sovereign debt default? Watch for more August 2015 Surprises or September 1, 2015

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, drug use, chronic human disease, violence, poor diets and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: According to Russian health experts, 40 percent or more of the infant deaths in Russia are caused by social factors like alcoholism and drug use by parents or their failure to take their children to doctors or hospitals or to get required vaccinations. [26]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: The mortality among working-age Russians is rising. In 2014, for example, mortality rates among Russians aged 30 to 45 went up by 1.2 percent. [26]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia is aging and the birth rate is plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years. Consequently, even if each women were to have more children, the total number of births would fall. [6] and [26]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Unproductive workforce: Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

-Migration: It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.(Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post) [21]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes, especially juniors are now being accused of doping over the last decade. “The story that the newspaper was planning to write related to what it described as “systematic blood doping” that had seeped into junior Russian athletics as far back as 2007. The paper claimed that of 289 blood screens performed at the 2007, 2009 and 2011 under-23 championships, Russian athletes had the three most abnormal values at every event [63]

-Health: Instead of fixing all the problems in healthcare, Russian bureaucrats want to licence shames and healers. Today’s “Novyye izvestiya” reports that Sergey Kalashnikov, the chairman of the Duma’s committee on health, has announced that he has prepared draft legislation that would create a government organization to license those who offer their services as healers (newizv.ru/politics/2015-08-26/226093-licenzija-dlja-shamana.html). He says he came up with the idea because “an enormous number of charlatans work in this area” and consequently, “this requires regulation.” Under the terms of his bill, those who offer such services will have to present documentation showing they are qualified to perform the services they offer or certificates of their training in Chinese, Tibetan or other traditions. But instead of addressing that problem, Duma members prefer to focus on things like this, the journalist says, adding that from what he can tell, such a shaman-licensing operation would simply become yet another means for officials to corruptly extract bribes from the population. [50]

-Health: “ According to unofficial data – and the Russian government these days does what it can not to report officially anything this untoward – there are approximately 278,000 Russian children who are suffering from incurable illnesses. Of these, approximately 42,000 need palliative care right now.” [61]

-Corruption: Average Bribe in Russia Doubles in Rubles, Remains Steady in Dollars. The amount of the average bribe in Russia has nearly doubled this year, reaching 208,000 rubles ($3,485 at today's rate), as the country's currency has shed value amid Western sanctions and an economic downturn, according to Interior Ministry estimates cited by pro-government Izvestia daily on Friday. This compares to about 109,000 rubles Russians are believed to have been paying or receiving as an average bribe in 2014, though police concede that their estimates may not be completely accurate, the report said.The increase in bribe amounts is substantially less significant in their dollar equivalent, because the Russian ruble traded at around 35 to the dollar at the start of 2014, but has slumped to around 60 to the dollar as of this week. [28]

-Corruption: Selective Justice. “Those who commit even insignificant violations but whose actions are not in accord with the leaders of the country are punished severely, Khodorkovsky continues, while those who commit major crimes but do so with the agreement of those in power escape without any punishment at all.” [56]

-Corruption:Crony Bailouts and Crony Capitalism:** Despite the economic crisis, Duma deputies say, the Kremlin is continuing its “Robin Hood in reverse” strategy, taking from the poor and giving to the rich, an approach which was never popular even when the Russian economy was growing but now is highly offensive when it is not. “Nezavisimaya gazeta” reported that the Audit Chamber had found that the finance ministry had handed out more than ten billion dollars in the last year to firms without adequate checks, a figure more than the ministry said it had to cut the indexation of pensions because of budgetary problems. Clearly, there are officials prepared to take the last kopeck from pensioners and hand out big money to their friends instead.[37]

-Corruption: Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Corruption: Too Little Too Late? Time to scrap the oligarch system? ** It’s time for former Soviet countries to get rid of oligarchs . Was the "Vladimir Yakunin" firing and the dismissal of 12 security officials (Putin unexpectedly took away the chair from 12 high-ranking security ) a trial balloon? --Walter Derzko KEY QUOTE: RUSSIA At one time, Russia had the most billionaires in the world – 100, according to Forbes magazine. Several refused to pledge their allegiance to Vladimir Putin, and he chased them overseas or imprisoned them. Putin did not scrap the oligarch system, however. He simply replaced some oligarchs with others. […] Unfortunately, the buddies he put at the helm of Gazprom, Rosneft and Russian Railways have run those operations into the ground. Recently, he fired the head of Russian Railways, Vladimir Yakunin, in favor of a talented young technocrat whom Putin hopes will revive the company. The head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, and Rosneft, Igor Sechin, are worried about being fired, too. [40]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Culture of Kleptocracy: Russia’s appalling business reputation acts both as a brake on foreign investment and a stimulus to capital flight. [7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or a spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Overregulation: Back to centralized control: The Russian government has resumed pressure on exporters to sell foreign currency in an effort to prevent global market turbulence from triggering another rouble sell-off. In meetings and calls from August 19, Central Bank and cabinet officials instructed executives at state-owned and private companies on when and how much of their dollar revenues to convert to roubles, company officials said. "There is monitoring on a daily basis now," said a source at Alrosa, the diamond miner. An source close to Rosneft, the state oil company, said: "Forex sales are being conducted on direct orders from the government." [37]

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US & Russia assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty --revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion. [7]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberian/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberian/China flashpoint. Russia has replaced some of its real live border guards along the Chinese frontier with straw-filled scarecrows dressed in Russian uniforms, according to Beijing’s“Peoples Daily,” a development that suggests some Russian soldiers have found a way to avoid service or that the Russian siloviki, given Putin’s aggressive policies, may be overstretched. The Beijing paper says that a reporter for the Chinese edition of “Global Times” had approached the border to check on the construction of a railroad bridge between the two countries over the Amur River. He photographed the border and on enlarging it discovered the scarecrows (russian.rt.com/inotv/2015-08-25/Peoples-Daily-Rossijskuyu-granicu-ohranyayut). The journalist discovered something else as well: Chinese firms have constructed 60 percent of the bridge between the Russian village of Nizhneleninskoye and the Chinese city of Tuntsian, but there are “no signs” that Russian firms have done anything at all to meet their responsibilities for construction. [51]

Russia has replaced some of its real live border guards along the Chinese frontier with straw-filled scarecrows dressed in Russian uniforms, according to Beijing’s “Peoples Daily,” a development that suggests some Russian soldiers have found a way to avoid service or that the Russian siloviki, given Putin’s aggressive policies, may be overstretched. The Beijing paper says that a reporter for the Chinese edition of “Global Times” had approached the border to check on the construction of a railroad bridge between the two countries over the Amur River. He photographed the border and on enlarging it discovered the scarecrows [66]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberian /China flashpoint. Armed forces underfunding? The Beijing paper says that a reporter for the Chinese edition of “Global Times” had approached the border to check on the construction of a railroad bridge between the two countries over the Amur River. The journalist discovered: Chinese firms have constructed 60 percent of the bridge between the Russian village of Nizhneleninskoye and the Chinese city of Tuntsian, but there are “no signs” that Russian firms have done anything at all to meet their responsibilities for construction. [66]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-Conflict on the periphery: Siberian Nationalism, Separation and Autonomy: “Siberia, after all, “has seen an uptick in nationalism” recently, Quartz’s Bradley Jardine found last month. The nationalism, the push for autonomy, stems as much from the Crimean precedent as it does from Siberia’s status as a quasi-colony within Russia. The region provides some 90 percent of Russian natural gas and more than 70 percent of Russia’s oil, supplying Moscow with far more material wealth than it sees in tax returns. With 77 percent of Russia’s total land mass, and with a grand total of 3.1 people per square kilometer, Siberia stands a world apart, as much an idea as a known entity. “There is a distinct and understandable discomfort in Moscow about the extent to which so much of its wealth is on the other side of the Urals, in thinly-populated, sometimes-unruly, and geographically and even psychologically distant lands,” Galeotti said. Over the past few years, the desires of the Kremlin and local leaders have only grown more strained. Tensions boiled over last August, when Moscow banned the “March for the Federalization of Siberia” in Novosibirsk, Siberia’s largest city. In keeping with its trend of throttling any internal separatist sentiment, authorities arrested numerous organizers and imposed a media blackout. Moscow even threatened to block BBC’s Russian service for its coverage.” [72]

-China Pivot off: The launch of China’s "New Silk Road" last month, bypassing Russian territory, was a serious blow to the Russian economic interests. The first Nomadexpress container train has already traveled on route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alat (Azerbaijan). From Azerbaijan, the express goes to Georgia, Turkey and the EU. Thus, a joint project of the Trans-Caspian international transport route and the New Silk Road became a reality. The main feature of the project is bypassing Russian territory. Another important caveat is the time. The route takes six days to cover, instead of 25-40 as before. Of course, China is challenging Russia as Eurasia’s largest Eurasian transit state. The New Silk Road has the potential to become more attractive than the obsolete Trans-Siberian Railway. Moreover, Kazakhstan's participation in the project almost completely eliminates the issue of its further foreign policy orientation – it has shifted from Moscow to Beijing. By the way, in this context, Ukraine also has a unique opportunity to expand its own transit opportunities thanks to Chinese shipments. [23]

-China Pivot Off: Gas cooperation between Russia and China is frozen. The gas contract between Russia’s Gazprom and China's CNPC on construction of a Power of Siberia pipeline, pompously presented earlier (signed in May 2014, its estimated total value was $400 billion), is frozen for an indefinite period. As it turned out, the idea of ​​reorientation of Russian gas exports from Europe to Asia, with China being a priority, has failed. The main reason is the reduction of gas consumption in China caused by the slowdown in the country’s economic growth, the development of gas production within its own territory (By 2020, China will have produced nearly 30 bcm of shale gas alone), focus on gas imports from Turkmenistan (China currently imports 30 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan, with the possibility of expanding imports to 60-70 bcm by 2020), as well as a gradual decrease in share of oil and gas energy in the country’s total energy balance within the framework of the latest global trends. Besides, the Chinese side did not agree to the price offered by Gazprom, which attempted to propose an equivalent to the European price. China has almost always pushed for the suitable price, which is significantly lower than that for other purchasers of the Russian gas. It is equally important that Bejing has provided no options of the financial assistance whatsoever for the construction of new gas pipelines on Russian territory, to the Chinese borders. Such stalemate allows forgetting the prospects of gas cooperation between the two countries. Besides, it is better for China to wait a full collapse of Putin's regime, so that, as member of anti-Russian coalition club, it could bite a piece of the “Siberian pie”, on far more favorable conditions of access to the those very oil and gas fields. It seems like China has flagrantly given Putin a “black mark” on a gas issue.[23]

-China Pivot Off; Bank transactions sour. With regard to financial cooperation between the two countries, there is growing evidence of Chinese banks' reluctance to carry out interbank transactions with their Russian partners. Chinese banks have also considerably reduced participation in foreign trade transactions with Russia. Cases of recent expansion of payments in rubles and yuan in certain Chinese border provinces can be explained by China’s will to extend the operating field for yuan, as Bejing has witnessed sharp reduction in the inflow of foreign currency to Russia, especially of the US dollar and euro. So, Putin should not expect any financial aid from China. There are currently no other donors due to severe Western sanctions, and they are not expected to emerge any time soon. [23]

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Land is yet another demonstrative issue in Russian-Chinese relations. More precisely, it is about Bejing’s rapidly growing appetite for the development of Russian territories. For example, a huge stir in Russia was caused by the plans of Trans-Baikal regional authorities to lease nearly 300,000 hectares of land to the Chinese company Huae Xinban for a 49-year term for less than $5 per hectare. Although this issue has not yet been fully resolved, the locals have already organized a protest movement. Most probably, the opinion of local activists will not be taken into account, and China will get the desired land by either paying more for the rent, or simply by financially stimulating Russian officials. No wonder the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev offers Russian youth to study Chinese, not just English.

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Another fact confirming the intention of China to get hold of as much Russian resources and territories as it possibly can until the final collapse of the present Russian Federation is the country’s broad interests in Russia’s Magadan region, the top region in silver mining and the fourth in gold extraction. Chinese Southwest mining company has decided to invest RUR 400 million this year in the development of deposits of antimony and silver. The company's plans cover the construction of roads in the region, mineral exploration, and mining of silver and other precious metals in the already known deposits. Earlier, the Kremlin did not allow China getting close to Russia’s main fields of natural resources across Siberia and the Far East. [23]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Evaporating Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Foreign investment is now below zero Foreign direct investment stopped coming to Russia at the beginning of 2014 according to Central Bank data . "Currently, there are direct and indirect bans on investing in Russia and our western partners now have doubts about some of Russia's large-scale projects," [7] and [22]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2018 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15] Also Ukraine ready to stop financing Donbas enclave controlled by Russian terrorists [39

-Budget Deficit: Are the RU coffers are running dry even for insiders? Will pensioners make up the difference? Watch for pension cuts- Walter Derzko. The Russian government has refused Russian Rail, the state rail operator’s request for $1.83bn in funding next year, casting doubt on ambitious rail infrastructure plans. Russian Railways had asked for $1.83bn in 2016 from the federal budget and from Russia’s $75bn oil-revenue-fuelled sovereign wealth fund, the National Wealth Fund, to maintain its financial stability, saying it would otherwise need to raise tariffs by 17.7% . Also last week the government rejected oil monopoly Rosneft’s request for $4.3bn to fund five capital projects, The Financial Times (FT) reported. The government said it would fund one of the projects, a new shipyard, but only if enough advanced orders demonstrated its commercial viability. The FT observed that the fall in the value of the ruble and the closure of western capital markets resulting from sanctions has “triggered a scramble” to secure finance from the National Wealth Fund, which support’s Russia’s pension system. [60]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-Credit Rating: JUNK; Junk credit rating June 23, 2015 Russia will probably be saddled with a junk credit rating for two more years, Standard & Poor’s said, joining Moody’s Investors Service in dashing expectations by officials for a higher debt grade. “It is unlikely that the ratings will be raised in the next 24 months,” Trevor Cullinan, sovereign analyst at S&P, said in an e-mailed response to questions on Tuesday. The nation’s negative outlook “indicates that we could downgrade Russia over the next 12 months if external and fiscal buffers deteriorate faster than we currently expect.”

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-War in Ukraine: Putin calculated that everyone would close their eyes to the annexation of Crimea. After an initial burst of euphoria, Crimea has turned out to be a burden rather than a victory; Ukrainians in the east have not supported Putin’s aggression, and “besides, the West is acting in a very monolithic and consolidated way by introducing serious sanctions which are constantly being intensified. At the same time, no one supports Russia,” not even its “closest and most dependent” neighbors. [25]

-War in Ukraine: Eastern Ukraine resembles Transdniestria but not really Abkhazia or South Osetia, Zubov suggests. Both places are ones in which “the soviet mentality dominates.” For Ukraine’s future, “it is very important that this mentality be overcome,” and that will require tact and care in dealing with the population of the east once Russian forces leave. Once Moscow pulls its forces out, Zubov argues, pro-Moscow groups “will not hold out two weeks. They understand that perfectly well, and therefore as soon as Russia leaves the Donbas, they will go with it, surrender or flee. The so-called LNR and DNR will cease their existence very quickly.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: And Russia will leave {Ukraine} because it does not want to suffer further sanctions and become a large North Korea. According to Zubov, “unofficial talks are going on about this now.” Their task is simple: how can Russia leave without losing face. “But apparently, it won’t be able to do so without losing face.” Thus, Ukraine will have to show great tact in dealing with the situation. Putin wasn’t prepared for all this because he had not prepared for war. Indeed, Zubov says, “no one seriously thought about war even in Soviet times, and when Khrushchev attempted to do something in Cuba in 1962, he was immediately removed. Everyone understands that nuclear war is impossible. Therefore Russia only uses this as a threat.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: How will Putin pull out? Zubov says that in his view, Putin launched his aggression in Ukraine for three reasons: to boost his popularity, to keep Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence, and to ensure that Russia’s military-industrial complex would not suffer given the importance of Ukrainian plants for its operation. But because he miscalculated, the Kremlin leader “has lost everything.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: Dead Russian soldiers a state secret. Last May President Putin officially declared military deaths in peacetime a state secret. His decision was seen as an attempt to cover up the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine war. Russian human-rights groups protested Putin’s decree. Last week, the Supreme Court upheld Putin’s decree, ruling against the complaint by a Russian civil society group claiming that the decree was illegal, that it was hiding the true information about Russia’s military involvement in eastern Ukraine.[33]

-War in Ukraine: Russia lets war dead figure in Ukraine Slip: Russian journal Delovaya Zhizn Wednesday accidentally published army pay figures, saying "as of February 1, 2015, monetary compensation had been paid to more than 2,000 families of fallen soldiers" in Ukraine, according to business magazine Forbes. Russia has long denied its soldiers are fighting in Ukraine.[57] It is important to note that the figure of 2,000 killed, 3,200 wounded probably only includes Russian soldiers (not irregulars) and that the figure only goes up to 1 February. The battle of Debaltseve, possibly the largest battle of the war, had not even peaked yet (this happened in mid-Feb) and Russian casualty figures from that battle are not included and may be significantly higher. In mid-October, Gideon Rachman of the FT reported that the German government estimated between 500 and 3000 Russian troops had died in E Ukraine. If these figures are correct, it means that in less than a year of war Russia has lost as many men as the US has in the entire 14-year Afghan war (2,344 as of June 2015.) According to these figures, If we assume there have been regular Russian troops in Ukraine since May 1st, 2014, losses between then and Feb 1 2015 were about 77 a week. While there may have been small contingents of Russian soldiers and specialists in Ukraine from April - August 2014 (say, to operate complex equipment like radars, AA missiles, etc.) large Russian formations probably did not show up in Ukraine till August 2014 (as opposed to Spetnzaz, who have been there the whole time) so the actual death rate inflicted on Russian units by the Ukrainians could be even higher. For comparison, the Soviet army lost about 35 soldiers a week during the Soviet-Afghan war according to official figure [7]

-War in Ukraine: War Reparation Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council stated, "Absurdly, Ukraine is supposed to repay Russia a $3 billion Eurobond in December that Russia issued in December 2013 to save former President Viktor Yanukovych. Why should Ukraine pay anything to its aggressor? Ukraine has already raised a number of international law cases against Russia for its illegal annexation of Crimea and its confiscation of state and private property there. The United States and the European Union need to reinforce their manifold sanctions against Russia by providing full legal and political support to Ukraine and insist that the country should not pay Russia. An aggressor should pay war reparations, as Iraq was forced to do after it attempted to annex Kuwait in 1990. Ukraine has come a long way. The United States and European Union need to tip the balance to its success." Aug 27, 2015

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Putin’s approval rating drops: Putin's approval ratings drops by 4-5%...start of a trend? Higher prices dent Putin's sky-high popularity. Russians' concern about rising prices has eroded President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings but these remain extremely high, the daily Vedomosti reported on Friday. It cited a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation as showing that 72 percent

of Russians would have voted for Putin in August, down from 76 percent in May. Another poll, by the Levada Center, showed that in August 83 percent of Russians approved of the President's actions, down from an all-time high of 89 percent in May. [64]

-Low energy/ oil prices; The Russian budget needed $85-$100 oil to break even, depending on which source you listen to. Now in Aug 2015 it’s in the mid $40s

-Low energy/oil prices: Russia is at the Mercy of Oil Markets. The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors (US fracking and LNG), and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

-Low energy/oil prices: Eleven of Russia’s 14 oil processing firms are now operating at a deficit; and consequently, “what we see today is just the quiet before a very strong storm.” [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Even if oil prices were to rise to 70 dollars a barrel, that would not be enough to prevent a further decline in the Russian economy. And given that the actual price will be much lower, that decline will be very steep indeed. As prices fall to 40 dollars a barrel, Zhukovsky says, Russia will discover “a third bottom” and then “a fourth” and so on. [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Most analysts think that at the present time, the amount of oil produced exceeds demand by 1.4 to 1.7 million barrels a day. That will push prices down further as will the return online of Iranian production. Prices will thus fall, and Russia, although not an OPEC member, produces enough to affect prices – or at least it could have a year ago. “Now, let us consider the statistics,” Inozemtsev says. OPEC countries were producing 36.6 million barrels a day in 2014; Russia was producing 10.8 million. At the November 2014 OPEC meeting, Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, flew in and declared, for the first time officially, that that company had “already reduced production by 25,000 barrels a day and was prepared to discuss its further reduction.” “If [Russia] had wanted to support OPEC in the regulation of prices, it should have suggested cutting production by 400-450,000 barrels a day and preferably even more,” not the miserly amount it did. Why didn’t Moscow do the rational thing as far as prices were concerned? Inozemtsev asks rhetorically. The answer lies in the fact that “Rosneft remains the main taxpayer of the country,” and cutting production would thus reduce the income of the Russian state. But now because of what it failed to do in October 2014, Moscow faces a much greater loss of income. [49]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Uncompetitive Raw Material Economy: Along with the nuclear arsenal, “the Putin regime inherited from the USSR a raw materials economy with serious internal disproportions” which left it uncompetitive in foreign markets.” [58]

-Lack of Diversification & Entrepreneurship: It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia. Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development. (JYSkebank, The Economist) [21]

-No Technology substitution: Russians need to recognize that the low oil prices are not the product of “a conspiracy of the US and the Arabs against Russia.” Instead, they are the result of an Arab effort to drive down the price so that the latest technological innovations in extraction technology the Americans have will not be profitable. Russia isn’t part of the equation for either, Zhukovsky says, but this also means, the basic trend won’t change anytime soon. Moreover, if Russia sits and does not make fundamental change, the new oil extraction technologies will in fact be “a death sentence” for the Russian economy. Russia’s only chance to “move forward” is to focus on scientific and technical progress, to behave as the Chinese have done gradually shifting into ever higher tech areas rather than relying on the sale of natural resources or minimally processed goods. But that is not what the Russian government is doing. [20]

-Economic speculation: Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. If he is even partially correct, Russia faces not a “black Monday” or a “black September” but a “black” and bleak future. […] Many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at firesale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s. These people, Zhukovsky says, “have their families, portfolios and property abroad. They are interested in having the situation in Russia be as bad as possible and the ruble to fall as far as possible so that they will be able to sell their apartments there and buy them here on the cheap.” In 1998, at the time of defaults, the Russian stock market fell 80 percent, the ruble fell 84 percent, “and all our bureaucrats … took the money they had and converted it into hard currency. “When the market collapsed, they bought shares at three cents on the dollar. The very same thing is happening now. Moreover, Zhukovsky adds, after the coming collapse “the American, European or Chinese investors will come.” They too will take advantage of the low prices just as they did in 1992 and 1998 [20]

-Western food embargo: Putin to ban four EU food exporters - Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro and Ukrainian food exports to Russia from Jan 1, 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty; The potential Ukraine ban is more significant, with food exports to Russia last year still worth $415 million, out of total exports of $11 billion, despite the conflict over Crimea and in east Ukraine. The Iceland ban is the biggest. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, the Nordic state exported $232 million of mostly seafood to Russia in 2014. Albania exported $10 million of fruit and dairy. Montenegro exported $40,000 of fruit and vegetables. Liechtenstein didn’t export any food. [19]

- Medical Import Ban: “Health experts say that the ban, which targets more than 100 kinds of foreign-made medical goods and equipment, would deal a devastating blow to Russia’s most vulnerable citizens. Under the proposal, state-funded facilities would no longer be allowed to import items such as ventilators, MRI scanners, X-ray and ultrasound machines, defibrillators…” But private clinics can [45]

-Internet, social network ban: One of the Kremlin’s most senior officials, Nikolay Patrushev, Speaking at a Vladivostok conference today, denounced the use by officials of “foreign” resources like Google, Yahoo, WhatsApp, and others as a threat to national security (regions.ru/news/2558115/). He said that this is “a systemic issue for all of Russia, but in the Far East, it is especially serious.” Patrushev asked that the heads of the regions there “devote particular attention to these issues and take corresponding measures.” Continuing “negligence” in this area will not be tolerated. The Russian Security Council official’s remarks follow earlier reports that the Duma may adopt a law this fall that would “prohibit bureaucrats and state employees from using social networks at work.” Observers say that this measure will be considered this fall, after the law on “cyber sovereignty” goes into effect on September 1. [50]

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 14 million that live in 319 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7] and [27]

-Growing Poverty levels**: Falling or No government subsidies for 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Inequality of wealth According to the Global Wealth Report, Russia leads the world in terms of inequality of wealth with the top one percent having 71 percent of the wealth of the country, a far higher figure than in other countries, including the United States, according to Moscow commentator Igor Yakovenko. But what is worse about this is that those at the top of the wealth pyramid in Russia generally go there not by their own efforts as is the case in the West but rather by raiding state assets and selling them off and have not displayed the inclination to philanthropy that Western billionaires typically do (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=55E1D63C9A0CE). [69]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others.

-Military Industrial complex decay**: “A couple of months ago, Vladimir Ryzhkov visited Mikhail Sokolov on air of Radio Svoboda and lamented the fact that Putin’s geopolitical adventures were destroying the Russian military-industrial complex, because a huge part of the supply of components, systems, engines, etc. in the Russian arsenal belonged to the Ukrainian companies. Now they do not cooperate with the Russian military-industrial complex, and the Russian military-industrial complex will be destroyed. In September 2014, in the first round of the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia, apart from other measures, it was banned to export a number of military goods. Now the government of Ukraine has approved an expanded package of sanctions. It is supposed that the sanctions list will include 156 legal entities and more than a thousand individuals, among whom will surely be many organizations and people from the Russian military-industrial complex. [7] and [24]

- Unsustainable Militarization & renewal stalling: Russia will not need its military-industrial complex for the next 20-30 years. Russia needs receivership and the Marshall Plan. This statement would be wrong, if the Constitution of the Russian Federation acted in Russia, and there was society in the sense of ‘nation’. But we have nothing, and will not have, as long as it appears with the help of receivership as it was in West Germany after 1945 and de-Nazification. The Russian military-industrial complex is doomed.The Russian military-industrial complex has international sanctions imposed against it, which have long hammered the final nail in its coffin by a simple forward contract. The latest weapons of the XXI century and the sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex are incompatible with each other. The program of upgrading the Russian army for the period up to 2020 is just the greatest scheme of stealing 20 trillion rubles in the history of Russia, and nothing more. By 2020, some will become very rich, a lot of people will become very poor, but there will be no Russian military-industrial complex, as there will be no XXI century weapons. When the ‘guns before butter’ choice is made, in the conditions of attacks on other countries and international sanctions, there will be no guns, no butter, no country,” Rabinovich wrote on his page on Facebook [7] and [24]

- Unsustainable Militarization & renewal stalling: Defence spending. “Even as the country projects a muscular image, a falling ruble and weaker economy has forced the Kremlin to scale back its ambitious plans for a multibillion-dollar military modernization. Russia’s Defense Ministry has cut the number of Sukhoi T-50 stealth fighters it will buy in its initial order from as many as 100 to 12, an official close to the defense industry said. [62]

-Collapse of defence parts industry** Russia has no substitution for many critical Ukrainian military parts [7]

-Russian navy falling apart: The only RU aircraft carrier Kuznetsov doesn't have many years left in her. Her boilers are "defective," according to the trade publication Defense Industry Daily. Yet when she goes to the breakers to be dismantled, Moscow could find it impossible to replace her. For one, the shipyard that built all the Soviet carriers now belongs to Ukraine. It lies just outside of Crimea, and Russian forces did not manage to seize it. Moreover, Ukraine is still the exclusive supplier for many of the heavy components, including engines and gears, for Russia's warships — even the ones Russia builds in its northern shipyard. With the continuing tense stand-off, Kiev recently banned arms sales to Moscow. Russia's attempts to revitalize its domestic shipbuilding industry have not gone smoothly. In 2005, India inked a nearly $1-billion deal with Russia for a rebuilt Soviet-era small flattop. Russia's work on Vikramaditya was so poor, however, that she suffered a near-total breakdown shortly after her purported completion in 2012. India finally accepted Vikramaditya in 2014 — after the total cost of her refurbishment had nearly tripled to $2.3 billion. If Russia can't even remodel an existing warship, imagine the difficulties it would face designing and building a big new ship from scratch. [52]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Lack of Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Lack of Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

-Lack of Innovation: Russia's Space Program in Crisis After Decades of Brain Drain, Neglect. "The Russian space industry is in an obvious state of crisis," said Asif Siddiqi, a professor at Fordham University in New York and an expert on Russia's space program. Russia has lost 15 spacecraft since 2010, with assembly mistakes blamed in most cases. [41]

-Lack of Innovation: "We've fallen behind on {our space} science program ... We've forgotten how to make and fly unmanned probes," said Igor Marinin, head of industry publication Novosti Kosmonavtiki. Space probes take years to reach their destination — but Russia does not have a single one making its way through space. Its latest successful probe wrapped operations in 1986. Part of the problem is that while Russia boosted space spending from $960 million in 2005 to $4.1 billion last year, this is still dwarfed by NASA, which spent $17.6 billion in 2014. [44]

-Innovation: Brain Drain**: A brain drain is also hobbling the sector. The Russian space industry was depleted of manpower after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 and many experts fled to better-paying jobs in the West. This, in turn, caused a generation gap, particularly in crucial research and development. "None of the long-term plans proposed in the past 15 years have been completely achieved on time" "The 40-somethings that are supposed to be taking up top jobs in the industry should have started in the 1990s — and they didn't," Marinin said. And while salaries have improved over the last two decades, they still haven't reached anything close to parity with the West: A Russian cosmonaut made just $26,000 a year in 2012, compared to $63,000 to $139,000 at NASA, according to state agency RIA Novosti. Money problems aren't going away. Falling oil prices and Western sanctions could see billions stripped from Russia's space program over the coming years, experts say. This is money that Russia's Federal Space Agency, the Roscosmos, can hardly afford to lose. (Roscosmos did not respond to a request for comment on this story). So Russia's state-dominated space industry is set to continue struggling to outperform its Western counterparts. Meanwhile, existing companies are plagued by lack of quality control and expert oversight. In 2013, a Proton rocket was lost because a worker installed a sensor upside down — and hammered it in to fit. Added to this, economic sanctions mean certain spaceship components can no longer be imported (from Ukraine or the west-WD) and must now be reinvented in Russia. [44]

-Innovation: Brain Drain: 1/3 of university graduates want to emigrate from RU work abroad [55]

- Alienation of Europe & the West; Putin and company have managed to alienate the entire civilized world and to become a pariah state. [40] Most recently the Russian Veto in the UN Security council over the MH17 tribunal

-Alienation of Europe & the West: Russia has outraged and alienated Europe and much of the Arab world. It is fitting that Russian analysts are calling for Moscow to defend its final stronghold in the Middle East. Thanks to the work of our agents of influence, Syria is set to become Russia’s Last Stand in the region. Even the short-term survival of the Assad regime only works to deepen the bitterness the Sunni majority feels toward Russia. Indeed, Russia’s identification with Shi’a forces—Iran, Assad, and Hizballah—ensures the wider alienation of Russia from the 90 percent of the world’s Muslims who are Sunni. As we’ve already seen in Libya, the inevitable collapse of Assad and other retrograde client states elsewhere will ultimately deprive Russia of the billions of dollars it invested there, and leave Moscow increasingly isolated and disliked internationally. [7]

- Pariah state: Spies and agents of influence: Four European parties from the far right to the radical left -- France’s National Front, the U.K. Independence Party, the Danish People’s party and Greece’s Syriza --have expressed sympathy for Putin while finishing first in their national elections to the European Parliament last year. Putin has worked to build bridges to governments in Greece, Cyprus and Hungary. One of Budapest’s lawmakers in the EU Parliament, Bela Kovacs, is accused by Hungarian prosecutors of being a Russian spy, which he denies.

“If you look at almost every far-left or far-right organization in Europe today, the one unifying theme is that they all look up to Mr. Putin as a role model,” Eyal, director of the London-based Royal United Services Institute for defense studies, or RUSI, said in an interview in London. Putin has built an “enormous apparatus” across Europe in part because of the huge sums of money he’s been showering on the spy services, according to Oleg Gordievsky, a former KGB colonel who spied for the U.K. from 1974 to 1985, when he was smuggled into Finland in the trunk of a car. [43]

- Pariah state: Spies and agents of influence: Sweden’s service, SAPO, says that Russia has deployed “hundreds” of spies on missions around Europe, including Stockholm, and that they operate across “a series of platforms,” including consulting, media and travel. Defense, national security and law enforcement now eat up 34 percent of Russia’s budget, more than double the level in 2010. The share of spending that’s black -- authorized but not itemized -- has doubled in the period to 21 percent, or 3.2 trillion rubles ($50 billion), according to the Gaidar Institute, an independent research group in Moscow. [7] and [43]

-Pariah State: Russia FSB fueling ISIS with Jihadists. Even as America touts its counterterrorism partnerships with Russia, evidence points to the FSB directly feeding Dagestanis to ISIS. [...]Proof, if it were needed, for how valued this cooperation is among U.S. policymakers came in the conspicuous absence of Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, from sanctions levied by the Treasury Department against Russian officials. The sanctions targeted bureaucrats involved in both the invasion and occupation of Crimea and the unacknowledged maskirovka war that Moscow is still waging in eastern Ukraine—a war that has drawn amply on the resources of the FSB and has included several “former” FSB officers on the battlefield. Not only was Bortnikov not sanctioned, he was invited by the White House last February as a guest to President Obama’s three-day conference on “countering violent extremism,” whereas the current FBI director, James Comey, was not. [...] Yet a recent investigation conducted by Novaya Gazeta, one of the few independent newspapers left in Russia, complicates this cozy tale of counterterrorist cooperation. Based on extensive fieldwork in one village in the North Caucasus, reporter Elena Milashina has concluded that the “Russian special services have controlled” the flow of jihadists into Syria, where they have lately joined up not only with ISIS but other radical Islamist factions. In other words, Russian officials are adding to the ranks of terrorists which the Russian government has deemed a collective threat to the security and longevity of its dictatorial ally on the Mediterranean, Bashar al-Assad. […]The FSB established a “green corridor” to allow them {Jihadists} to migrate first to Turkey, and then to Syria. (Russians, including those living in the North Caucasus, can catch any of the daily non-stop flights to Istanbul and visit Turkey without a visa.) [46]

-Soviet style show trials: Russian military kangaroo court sentenced Ukrainian film director Oleh Sentsov and Ukrainian civic activist Oleksandr Kolchenko to, respectively, 20 and 10 years imprisonment on trumped-up charges of terrorism. Amnesty International and other human rights groups immediately responded with protests, while Amnesty’s press secretary in Ukraine compared the trial to Stalinist (or Soviet) show trials.[53] and [68]

- No Incentive to Change** : Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it. How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy. (TIME, Pew Research Center, Washington Post, Pew Research Center) [21]

-No Constant Pressure on Elites: Unwillingness of the population to keep up the pressure on elites. In January 1991, nearly half a million Russians went into the streets in Moscow to protest the Kremlin’s actions in Lithuania; and that “response of the Muscovites was a decisive factor in the liberation of the Baltic countries.” But a few years later, far fewer were ready to go into the streets to protest Yeltsin’s criminal war against Chechnya. And “what do we see now?” There were protests at the end of 2011 and in May 2012, but the numbers were much smaller, a maximum of 100,000; and those who took part were immediately “written down as a fifth column.” And there have been far fewer brave enough to protest what Moscow is doing in Ukraine. [36]

-No Lustration: failure of the country to conduct lustration so that those with the values and styles of the Soviet regime would not return. They did not ask themselves the most obvious question: could they imagine a post-war Germany in which a Gestapo officer could become chancellor? But because they did not resist this in Russia’s case, “the KGB (now the FSB) was preserved, not reformed, and has taken its revenge.”Kovalyev says that he does not exclude the possibility that the Russian Federation will suffer the same fate as the USSR, adding that he “has hope and at the same time fear that the current situation cannot extend for a long time.” It is clearly the case that the current regime must be replaced, but it is “another question as to who can be its replacement.” [36]

-Arms Trade: “ Russia Russian civil aviation companies face a disappointing week at the country's largest air show that opened on Tuesday as economic crisis and Western sanctions take a heavy toll on order books and scare away many foreign firms. "The reasons why the number of deals is falling is very simple - the Russian aviation market is shrinking because of a steep rouble devaluation as people's purchasing power declines and they travel less abroad," said Andrei Rozhkov, infrastructure analyst from Metropol brokerage. "Russian companies have not only stopped purchasing new planes, they are postponing delivery under old contracts. By contrast, demand for Russian military aircraft is booming and the biennial MAKS air show is increasingly being used to showcase the country's military might."[67]

-Hopelessness: The gloom now reflects the old adage that “the night is darkest just before the dawn.” [36]

-Silent minority: According to Gudkov, there is still some hope: approximately ten percent of the Russian population is interested in and animated by the values of democracy, "the more educated and the more entrepreneurial." But at present, this group is divided and disoriented and mired in depression. What is needed now, he concludes, is an active search for new forces which can provide optimism and the basis for a new rise in social consciousness. [70]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Putin Alienating Kremlin Elites with His Nuclear Blackmail Threats Such a demonstration of “schizophrenia in the Kremlin,” one that is approaching “the clinical,” Borovoy argues, frightens those with the elite who still have a modicum of good sense because it signals that there is very little Moscow might do and that the actions of the foreign ministry are simply another part of the Kremlin’s “propaganda machine.” Those within the elite may be more likely to desert him over this than even over economic sanctions, Borovoy suggests, because everyone can now see that the Putin regime is behaving according to the following “inadequate” logic: “Because we do not like your reaction to the downing of the Boeing, we will no longer feel bound by the non-proliferation treaty and provide nuclear arms to those who want them.”

Such a declaration, the Russian opposition figure says, is “in violation of all international agreements.” Moreover, he argues, “the despair in which Putin finds himself suggests that such inadequate actions will be carried out.” That in turn will force the international community to conclude that one of its members “has gone mad.” [30]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way? [35]

-Kremlin Revolt** Opposition calls for civil disobedience; Mikhail Khodorkovsky says that Russian citizens are fully entitled not to observe unjust laws imposed not to promote justice but to protect the power of Vladimir Putin, a potentially dramatic development in the relationship between the Russian opposition, the Russian people, and the Kremlin [56]

-Xenophobia: Foreign Agents Law. “it is immoral and unjust to label groups ‘foreign agents’ and drive out of the country the Dynasty Foundation which supports scholarship while at the same time [the pro-Kremlin] United Russia Party receives financing from offshore accounts.” [56]

-From authoritarian to totalitarian state: If Russia continues on its current course and if the regime restores a totalitarian system, "if the interests of the state stand above all," Lev Gudkov says, "then there is no logical, moral or legal barrier between the destruction of food [which is happening now] and the destruction of groups of the population declared to be enemies of the people." When "the authorities decide what is moral, what is art, what is worthy and what is not, what is history, how people should engage in sex and how to bring up their children," the head of the Levada Center says, "then these are signs of the establishment of totalitarian control"(www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/69727.html). "Of course," he adds in a new "Novaya gazeta" interview, "we still are dealing only with attempts to impose it." But both those attempts by the regime and the support that they are receiving from the Russian population mean that it is important to focus on them and consider how they might be blocked before a new tragedy occurs.Russia has been moving from "a typically authoritarian program" in which the authorities say do what you like as long as you don't touch politics to something more ominous, Gudkov's interviewer Andrey Lipsky says, arguing that since 2012 "we have become witnesses and unwilling participants in a dangerous drift of the Russian political system toward totalitarianism."The "secret political police" never went away and "chekists, former KGB officers with their mentality and their understanding of reality, their phobias and their ideas about the interests of the state came to power .This ideology penetrated into the functioning of new Russian state structures and has been preserved up to now." Moreover, Gudkov adds, "these Soviet institutional structures were not simply restored but combined again into a system. That which fell apart in 1991 and which with mixed success some attempted to destroy in the first half of the 1990s today has been restored completely."Not only is there a secret police, but there are other aspects of "the so-called totalitarian syndrome" as well: a one-party system which gives some a chance to rise and freezes others out, state control over the media which transforms them into propaganda outlets, and a fusion of the state and the economy thus allowing massive corruption. [71]

-Ukrainian Hostages: Russia kidnaps and jails Ukrainian hostages; Russia kidnaps Ukrainian hostages on Ukrainian soil, smuggles them to Russia and sentences them to jail terms on trumped up charges [53] and [68]

-Sovereign Debt Default**: “International rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s warn that Russia might default in a massive way sometime in the next two or three years. They suggest that Russia’s regions won’t be able to pay their debts, and Moscow will have trouble covering them. Moreover, these experts note, the Russian economy is now in recession, an economic downturn deepened by international sanctions, a decline in the price of oil and the devaluation of the ruble which makes repaying any foreign debt all the more expensive. “From this,” Dokuchayev writes, “extends a direct path to sovereign default.” By the end of this year, Russian companies and banks must repay 134 billion US dollars in foreign obligations. That is no small sum, but it would seem bearable given that the country’s reserves are about 400 billion US dollars. But if Moscow has to cover other losses, seeks to support the ruble, and faces a new drop in oil prices, that may not be enough. Many of those suggesting that Russia is at risk of another default focus on the last factor and suggest that as Iran comes back on stream and the war in Libya ebbs, the supply of oil relative to demand will grow and prices will fall to 20 US dollars a barrel or even lower in the coming months. If that happens, the “Novyye izvestiya” writer says, a dollar will be equal to 120-130 rubles and a euro to “about 150.” That could lead Russia to default by itself.” [31]

-Sovereign Wealth Fund: **Russia has already been forced to dip into its huge Sovereign Wealth Fund, saved during the years of high oil prices. Anton Siluanov, the Finance Minister, has warned that if the budget deficit does not reduce, the entire fund could soon be used up. [32]

-Existential Threat to the USA: Pentagon chief: Russia is a 'very significant threat; 'Defense Secretary Ash Carter is calling Russia a "very, very significant threat," agreeing with an assessment made by top military officials. A chorus of top military and political officials (General Dunsford, Secretary of State John Kerry, his top Europe official, Victoria Nuland, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, and General Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander for NATO) have said recently that Russia is the top threat to the U.S.'s national security in comparison to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. [34]

[40] Armine Sahakyan: It’s time for former Soviet countries to get rid of oligarchs http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/armine-sahakyan-its-time-for-former-soviet-countries-to-get-rid-of-oligarchs-396385.html

Wild card scenarios -What could distract PUTIN from Ukraine? Threat at the periphery: China Land Grab Scenariotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b8d14f2a5c970c2015-08-27T15:11:49-04:002015-08-27T15:11:49-04:00Wild card scenarios -What could distract PUTIN from Ukraine? Threat at the periphery: China Land Grab Scenario?..or time to think like Zbigniew Brzezinski would Description: China senses a weakness, and decides to annex Russian towns along the Sino- Russian border,...SmartEconomy

Wild card scenarios -What could distract PUTIN from Ukraine? Threat at the periphery: China Land Grab Scenario?..or time to think like Zbigniew Brzezinski would

Description:

China senses a weakness, and decides to annex Russian towns along the Sino- Russian border, where many mayors are already Chinese and the majority of the inhabitants, business owners and factories are Chinese. The Russian population in Siberia is a state of decline. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there.

“The earth along the Amur was, is and always will be Russian.” But Russia’s title to all of the land is only about 150 years old. And the sprawl of highrises in Heihe, the Chinese boomtown on the south bank of the Amur, right across from Blagoveshchensk, casts doubt on the “always will be” part of the old czarist slogan.

As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 14 million that live in 319 single industry cities and towns –mostly in periphery oblasts can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies.

China comes to rescue it’s Chinese compatriots (N.B. They already said they would in 2014 http://chinadailymail.com/2014/07/05/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia/ ) who are being neglected by the Russian government and are facing food shortages in the periphery oblasts. The 1.35 billion Chinese people south of the border outnumber Russia’s 144 million almost 10 to 1. The discrepancy is even starker for Siberia on its own, home to barely 38 million people, and especially the border area, where only 6 million Russians face over 90 million Chinese. With intermarriage, trade and investment across that border, Siberians have realized that, for better or for worse, Beijing is a lot closer than Moscow.

With the continuing drought in China –the worst in 50 years , the need for water, food security, and a potential famine and (rich natural resources as a bonus) Siberia could be the next conflict hotspot and a solution to China's famine problem. “It would not be the slightest overstatement to say that China's water situation is rapidly approaching crisis levels. Even China's Agriculture Ministry is sounding the alarm bells The numbers they're reporting show that China already has to import more water than the United States imports oil. And this is creating major problems for their food security– for without staggering food imports, China cannot feed itself. Source: http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/china-disaster-drought/

To protect its sovereignty Russia would need to move a third of its army (80,000 out of a total of230,000 in the army out of 770,00 in the armed forces**) along the Chinese border, all 2,738 miles of it, since China’s battle -ready army likely outnumbers Russia two to one, if not three to one. (or in reality, 29 Russian soldiers protecting each mile of border) Since only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy, then only 1/3 to ½ of Russian soldier can be considered combat-ready and not disabled, due to sickness, alcohol or drugs. (**see Fig 2 on page 12 http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2015/554213/EPRS_IDA(2015)554213_EN.pdf)

In a worst case scenario for Russia , one or two other hotspots (beyond Donbass) could simultaneously erupt to split Putin's army into 3 or 4 fragments. All other hotspots that Putin must face? 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US & Russia assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty --revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea

Signals pointing to this scenario?

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: “Land is yet another demonstrative issue in Russian-Chinese relations. More precisely, it is about Bejing’s rapidly growing appetite for the development of Russian territories. For example, a huge stir in Russia was caused by the plans of Trans-Baikal regional authorities to lease nearly 300,000 hectares of land to the Chinese company Huae Xinban for a 49-year term for less than $5 per hectare. Although this issue has not yet been fully resolved, the locals have already organized a protest movement. Most probably, the opinion of local activists will not be taken into account, and China will get the desired land by either paying more for the rent, or simply by financially stimulating Russian officials. No wonder the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev offers Russian youth to study Chinese, not just English.”

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: “Another fact confirming the intention of China to get hold of as much Russian resources and territories as it possibly can until the final collapse of the present Russian Federation is the country’s broad interests in Russia’s Magadan region, the top region in silver mining and the fourth in gold extraction. Chinese Southwest mining company has decided to invest RUR 400 million this year in the development of deposits of antimony and silver. The company's plans cover the construction of roads in the region, mineral exploration, and mining of silver and other precious metals in the already known deposits. Earlier, the Kremlin did not allow China getting close to Russia’s main fields of natural resources across Siberia and the Far East.” http://www.unian.info/politics/1111271-china-finishes-putin.html

Severity for Russia: HIGH; A Siberian split could instigate other regions to seek independence and autonomy

Likelihood: Low now, a Wild Card but circumstances could quickly change if China spots an opportunity window or an economic distraction in Russia

151 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, Collapse and Implosion of the Russian Federation, a failed state just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzkotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb08697da9970d2015-08-27T11:38:41-04:002015-08-27T11:45:45-04:00In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently...SmartEconomy

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime)

http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (Boris Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites. The KGB was even on my back by writing nasty Soviet style yellow journalism smear postings against me , so I guess the article hit a nerve in the Kremlin. The KGB was logging into my blog site daily for about 6 months after that.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my seventh cut. Thank you to everyone who has suggested new data points that I missed.

The Key Driving forces are in red and with an **

There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Or a sovereign debt default? Watch for more August 2015 Surprises like the drop in the Ruble this week !!!!

151 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay and Collapse of the Russian Federation just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, drug use, chronic human disease, violence, poor diets and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: According to Russian health experts, 40 percent or more of the infant deaths in Russia are caused by social factors like alcoholism and drug use by parents or their failure to take their children to doctors or hospitals or to get required vaccinations. [26]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: The mortality among working-age Russians is rising. In 2014, for example, mortality rates among Russians aged 30 to 45 went up by 1.2 percent. [26]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia is aging and the birth rate is plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years. Consequently, even if each women were to have more children, the total number of births would fall. [6] and [26]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Unproductive workforce: Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

-Migration: It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.(Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post) [21]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes are now being accused of doping over the last decade.

-Health: Instead of fixing all the problems in healthcare, Russian bureaucrats want to licence shames and healers. Today’s “Novyye izvestiya” reports that Sergey Kalashnikov, the chairman of the Duma’s committee on health, has announced that he has prepared draft legislation that would create a government organization to license those who offer their services as healers (newizv.ru/politics/2015-08-26/226093-licenzija-dlja-shamana.html). He says he came up with the idea because “an enormous number of charlatans work in this area” and consequently, “this requires regulation.” Under the terms of his bill, those who offer such services will have to present documentation showing they are qualified to perform the services they offer or certificates of their training in Chinese, Tibetan or other traditions. But instead of addressing that problem, Duma members prefer to focus on things like this, the journalist says, adding that from what he can tell, such a shaman-licensing operation would simply become yet another means for officials to corruptly extract bribes from the population. [50]

-Corruption: Average Bribe in Russia Doubles in Rubles, Remains Steady in Dollars. The amount of the average bribe in Russia has nearly doubled this year, reaching 208,000 rubles ($3,485 at today's rate), as the country's currency has shed value amid Western sanctions and an economic downturn, according to Interior Ministry estimates cited by pro-government Izvestia daily on Friday. This compares to about 109,000 rubles Russians are believed to have been paying or receiving as an average bribe in 2014, though police concede that their estimates may not be completely accurate, the report said.The increase in bribe amounts is substantially less significant in their dollar equivalent, because the Russian ruble traded at around 35 to the dollar at the start of 2014, but has slumped to around 60 to the dollar as of this week. [28]

-Corruption: Selective Justice. “Those who commit even insignificant violations but whose actions are not in accord with the leaders of the country are punished severely, Khodorkovsky continues, while those who commit major crimes but do so with the agreement of those in power escape without any punishment at all.” [56]

-Corruption: Crony Bailouts and Crony Capitalism:** Despite the economic crisis, Duma deputies say, the Kremlin is continuing its “Robin Hood in reverse” strategy, taking from the poor and giving to the rich, an approach which was never popular even when the Russian economy was growing but now is highly offensive when it is not. “Nezavisimaya gazeta” reported that the Audit Chamber had found that the finance ministry had handed out more than ten billion dollars in the last year to firms without adequate checks, a figure more than the ministry said it had to cut the indexation of pensions because of budgetary problems. Clearly, there are officials prepared to take the last kopeck from pensioners and hand out big money to their friends instead.[37]

-Corruption:Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Corruption: Too Little Too Late? Time to scarp the oligarch system? ** It’s time for former Soviet countries to get rid of oligarchs . Was the "Vladimir Yakunin" firing and the dismissal of 12 security officials (Putin unexpectedly took away the chair from 12 high-ranking security ) a trial balloon? --Walter Derzko KEY QUOTE: RUSSIA At one time, Russia had the most billionaires in the world – 100, according to Forbes magazine. Several refused to pledge their allegiance to Vladimir Putin, and he chased them overseas or imprisoned them. Putin did not scrap the oligarch system, however. He simply replaced some oligarchs with others. […] Unfortunately, the buddies he put at the helm of Gazprom, Rosneft and Russian Railways have run those operations into the ground. Recently, he fired the head of Russian Railways, Vladimir Yakunin, in favor of a talented young technocrat whom Putin hopes will revive the company. The head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, and Rosneft, Igor Sechin, are worried about being fired, too. [40]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Culture of Kleptocracy: Russia’s appalling business reputation acts both as a brake on foreign investment and a stimulus to capital flight. [7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or a spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Overregulation: Back to centralized control: The Russian government has resumed pressure on exporters to sell foreign currency in an effort to prevent global market turbulence from triggering another rouble sell-off. In meetings and calls from August 19, Central Bank and cabinet officials instructed executives at state-owned and private companies on when and how much of their dollar revenues to convert to roubles, company officials said. "There is monitoring on a daily basis now," said a source at Alrosa, the diamond miner. An source close to Rosneft, the state oil company, said: "Forex sales are being conducted on direct orders from the government." [37]

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US & Russia assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty --revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion. [7]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. Russia has replaced some of its real live border guards along the Chinese frontier with straw-filled scarecrows dressed in Russian uniforms, according to Beijing’s “Peoples Daily,” a development that suggests some Russian soldiers have found a way to avoid service or that the Russian siloviki, given Putin’s aggressive policies, may be overstretched. The Beijing paper says that a reporter for the Chinese edition of “Global Times” had approached the border to check on the construction of a railroad bridge between the two countries over the Amur River. He photographed the border and on enlarging it discovered the scarecrows (russian.rt.com/inotv/2015-08-25/Peoples-Daily-Rossijskuyu-granicu-ohranyayut). The journalist discovered something else as well: Chinese firms have constructed 60 percent of the bridge between the Russian village of Nizhneleninskoye and the Chinese city of Tuntsian, but there are “no signs” that Russian firms have done anything at all to meet their responsibilities for construction. [51]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-China Pivot off: The launch of China’s "New Silk Road" last month, bypassing Russian territory, was a serious blow to the Russian economic interests. The first Nomadexpress container train has already traveled on route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alat (Azerbaijan). From Azerbaijan, the express goes to Georgia, Turkey and the EU. Thus, a joint project of the Trans-Caspian international transport route and the New Silk Road became a reality. The main feature of the project is bypassing Russian territory. Another important caveat is the time. The route takes six days to cover, instead of 25-40 as before. Of course, China is challenging Russia as Eurasia’s largest Eurasian transit state. The New Silk Road has the potential to become more attractive than the obsolete Trans-Siberian Railway. Moreover, Kazakhstan's participation in the project almost completely eliminates the issue of its further foreign policy orientation – it has shifted from Moscow to Beijing. By the way, in this context, Ukraine also has a unique opportunity to expand its own transit opportunities thanks to Chinese shipments. [23]

-China Pivot Off: Gas cooperation between Russia and China is frozen. The gas contract between Russia’s Gazprom and China's CNPC on construction of a Power of Siberia pipeline, pompously presented earlier (signed in May 2014, its estimated total value was $400 billion), is frozen for an indefinite period. As it turned out, the idea of ​​reorientation of Russian gas exports from Europe to Asia, with China being a priority, has failed. The main reason is the reduction of gas consumption in China caused by the slowdown in the country’s economic growth, the development of gas production within its own territory (By 2020, China will have produced nearly 30 bcm of shale gas alone), focus on gas imports from Turkmenistan (China currently imports 30 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan, with the possibility of expanding imports to 60-70 bcm by 2020), as well as a gradual decrease in share of oil and gas energy in the country’s total energy balance within the framework of the latest global trends. Besides, the Chinese side did not agree to the price offered by Gazprom, which attempted to propose an equivalent to the European price. China has almost always pushed for the suitable price, which is significantly lower than that for other purchasers of the Russian gas. It is equally important that Bejing has provided no options of the financial assistance whatsoever for the construction of new gas pipelines on Russian territory, to the Chinese borders. Such stalemate allows forgetting the prospects of gas cooperation between the two countries. Besides, it is better for China to wait a full collapse of Putin's regime, so that, as member of anti-Russian coalition club, it could bite a piece of the “Siberian pie”, on far more favorable conditions of access to the those very oil and gas fields. It seems like China has flagrantly given Putin a “black mark” on a gas issue.[23]

-China Pivot Off; Bank transactions sour. With regard to financial cooperation between the two countries, there is growing evidence of Chinese banks' reluctance to carry out interbank transactions with their Russian partners. Chinese banks have also considerably reduced participation in foreign trade transactions with Russia. Cases of recent expansion of payments in rubles and yuan in certain Chinese border provinces can be explained by China’s will to extend the operating field for yuan, as Bejing has witnessed sharp reduction in the inflow of foreign currency to Russia, especially of the US dollar and euro. So, Putin should not expect any financial aid from China. There are currently no other donors due to severe Western sanctions, and they are not expected to emerge any time soon. [23]

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Land is yet another demonstrative issue in Russian-Chinese relations. More precisely, it is about Bejing’s rapidly growing appetite for the development of Russian territories. For example, a huge stir in Russia was caused by the plans of Trans-Baikal regional authorities to lease nearly 300,000 hectares of land to the Chinese company Huae Xinban for a 49-year term for less than $5 per hectare. Although this issue has not yet been fully resolved, the locals have already organized a protest movement. Most probably, the opinion of local activists will not be taken into account, and China will get the desired land by either paying more for the rent, or simply by financially stimulating Russian officials. No wonder the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev offers Russian youth to study Chinese, not just English.

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Another fact confirming the intention of China to get hold of as much Russian resources and territories as it possibly can until the final collapse of the present Russian Federation is the country’s broad interests in Russia’s Magadan region, the top region in silver mining and the fourth in gold extraction. Chinese Southwest mining company has decided to invest RUR 400 million this year in the development of deposits of antimony and silver. The company's plans cover the construction of roads in the region, mineral exploration, and mining of silver and other precious metals in the already known deposits. Earlier, the Kremlin did not allow China getting close to Russia’s main fields of natural resources across Siberia and the Far East. [23]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Evaporating Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Foreign investment is now below zero Foreign direct investment stopped coming to Russia at the beginning of 2014 according to Central Bank data . "Currently, there are direct and indirect bans on investing in Russia and our western partners now have doubts about some of Russia's large-scale projects," [7] and [22]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2018 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15] Also Ukraine ready to stop financing Donbas enclave controlled by Russian terrorists [39]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-War in Ukraine: Putin calculated that everyone would close their eyes to the annexation of Crimea. After an initial burst of euphoria, Crimea has turned out to be a burden rather than a victory; Ukrainians in the east have not supported Putin’s aggression, and “besides, the West is acting in a very monolithic and consolidated way by introducing serious sanctions which are constantly being intensified. At the same time, no one supports Russia,” not even its “closest and most dependent” neighbors. [25]

-War in Ukraine: Eastern Ukraine resembles Transdniestria but not really Abkhazia or South Osetia, Zubov suggests. Both places are ones in which “the soviet mentality dominates.” For Ukraine’s future, “it is very important that this mentality be overcome,” and that will require tact and care in dealing with the population of the east once Russian forces leave. Once Moscow pulls its forces out, Zubov argues, pro-Moscow groups “will not hold out two weeks. They understand that perfectly well, and therefore as soon as Russia leaves the Donbas, they will go with it, surrender or flee. The so-called LNR and DNR will cease their existence very quickly.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: And Russia will leave {Ukraine} because it does not want to suffer further sanctions and become a large North Korea. According to Zubov, “unofficial talks are going on about this now.” Their task is simple: how can Russia leave without losing face. “But apparently, it won’t be able to do so without losing face.” Thus, Ukraine will have to show great tact in dealing with the situation. Putin wasn’t prepared for all this because he had not prepared for war. Indeed, Zubov says, “no one seriously thought about war even in Soviet times, and when Khrushchev attempted to do something in Cuba in 1962, he was immediately removed. Everyone understands that nuclear war is impossible. Therefore Russia only uses this as a threat.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: How will Putin pull out? Zubov says that in his view, Putin launched his aggression in Ukraine for three reasons: to boost his popularity, to keep Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence, and to ensure that Russia’s military-industrial complex would not suffer given the importance of Ukrainian plants for its operation. But because he miscalculated, the Kremlin leader “has lost everything.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: Dead Russian soldiers a state secret. Last May President Putin officially declared military deaths in peacetime a state secret. His decision was seen as an attempt to cover up the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine war. Russian human-rights groups protested Putin’s decree. Last week, the Supreme Court upheld Putin’s decree, ruling against the complaint by a Russian civil society group claiming that the decree was illegal, that it was hiding the true information about Russia’s military involvement in eastern Ukraine.[33]

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Low energy/ oil prices; The Russian budget needed $85-$100 oil to break even, depending on which source you listen to. Now in Aug 2015 it’s in the mid $40s

-Low energy/oil prices: Russia is at the Mercy of Oil Markets. The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors (US fracking and LNG), and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

-Low energy/oil prices: Eleven of Russia’s 14 oil processing firms are now operating at a deficit; and consequently, “what we see today is just the quiet before a very strong storm.” [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Even if oil prices were to rise to 70 dollars a barrel, that would not be enough to prevent a further decline in the Russian economy. And given that the actual price will be much lower, that decline will be very steep indeed. As prices fall to 40 dollars a barrel, Zhukovsky says, Russia will discover “a third bottom” and then “a fourth” and so on. [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Most analysts think that at the present time, the amount of oil produced exceeds demand by 1.4 to 1.7 million barrels a day. That will push prices down further as will the return online of Iranian production. Prices will thus fall, and Russia, although not an OPEC member, produces enough to affect prices – or at least it could have a year ago. “Now, let us consider the statistics,” Inozemtsev says. OPEC countries were producing 36.6 million barrels a day in 2014; Russia was producing 10.8 million. At the November 2014 OPEC meeting, Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, flew in and declared, for the first time officially, that that company had “already reduced production by 25,000 barrels a day and was prepared to discuss its further reduction.” “If [Russia] had wanted to support OPEC in the regulation of prices, it should have suggested cutting production by 400-450,000 barrels a day and preferably even more,” not the miserly amount it did. Why didn’t Moscow do the rational thing as far as prices were concerned? Inozemtsev asks rhetorically. The answer lies in the fact that “Rosneft remains the main taxpayer of the country,” and cutting production would thus reduce the income of the Russian state. But now because of what it failed to do in October 2014, Moscow faces a much greater loss of income. [49]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Lack of Diversification: It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia. Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development. (JYSkebank, The Economist) [21]

-No Technology substitution: Russians need to recognize that the low oil prices are not the product of “a conspiracy of the US and the Arabs against Russia.” Instead, they are the result of an Arab effort to drive down the price so that the latest technological innovations in extraction technology the Americans have will not be profitable. Russia isn’t part of the equation for either, Zhukovsky says, but this also means, the basic trend won’t change anytime soon. Moreover, if Russia sits and does not make fundamental change, the new oil extraction technologies will in fact be “a death sentence” for the Russian economy. Russia’s only chance to “move forward” is to focus on scientific and technical progress, to behave as the Chinese have done gradually shifting into ever higher tech areas rather than relying on the sale of natural resources or minimally processed goods. But that is not what the Russian government is doing. [20]

-Economic speculation: Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. If he is even partially correct, Russia faces not a “black Monday” or a “black September” but a “black” and bleak future. […] Many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at firesale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s. These people, Zhukovsky says, “have their families, portfolios and property abroad. They are interested in having the situation in Russia be as bad as possible and the ruble to fall as far as possible so that they will be able to sell their apartments there and buy them here on the cheap.” In 1998, at the time of defaults, the Russian stock market fell 80 percent, the ruble fell 84 percent, “and all our bureaucrats … took the money they had and converted it into hard currency. “When the market collapsed, they bought shares at three cents on the dollar. The very same thing is happening now. Moreover, Zhukovsky adds, after the coming collapse “the American, European or Chinese investors will come.” They too will take advantage of the low prices just as they did in 1992 and 1998 [20]

-Western food embargo: Putin to ban four EU food exporters - Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro and Ukrainian food exports to Russia from Jan 1, 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty; The potential Ukraine ban is more significant, with food exports to Russia last year still worth $415 million, out of total exports of $11 billion, despite the conflict over Crimea and in east Ukraine. The Iceland ban is the biggest. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, the Nordic state exported $232 million of mostly seafood to Russia in 2014. Albania exported $10 million of fruit and dairy. Montenegro exported $40,000 of fruit and vegetables. Liechtenstein didn’t export any food. [19]

- Medical Import Ban: “Health experts say that the ban, which targets more than 100 kinds of foreign-made medical goods and equipment, would deal a devastating blow to Russia’s most vulnerable citizens. Under the proposal, state-funded facilities would no longer be allowed to import items such as ventilators, MRI scanners, X-ray and ultrasound machines, defibrillators…”[45]

-Internet, social network ban: One of the Kremlin’s most senior officials, Nikolay Patrushev, Speaking at a Vladivostok conference today, denounced the use by officials of “foreign” resources like Google, Yahoo, WhatsApp, and others as a threat to national security (regions.ru/news/2558115/). He said that this is “a systemic issue for all of Russia, but in the Far East, it is especially serious.” Patrushev asked that the heads of the regions there “devote particular attention to these issues and take corresponding measures.” Continuing “negligence” in this area will not be tolerated. The Russian Security Council official’s remarks follow earlier reports that the Duma may adopt a law this fall that would “prohibit bureaucrats and state employees from using social networks at work.” Observers say that this measure will be considered this fall, after the law on “cyber sovereignty” goes into effect on September 1. [50]

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 14 million that live in 319 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7] and [27]

-Growing Poverty levels**:Falling or No government subsidies for 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others.

-Military Industrial complex decay**: “A couple of months ago, Vladimir Ryzhkov visited Mikhail Sokolov on air of Radio Svoboda and lamented the fact that Putin’s geopolitical adventures were destroying the Russian military-industrial complex, because a huge part of the supply of components, systems, engines, etc. in the Russian arsenal belonged to the Ukrainian companies. Now they do not cooperate with the Russian military-industrial complex, and the Russian military-industrial complex will be destroyed. In September 2014, in the first round of the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia, apart from other measures, it was banned to export a number of military goods. Now the government of Ukraine has approved an expanded package of sanctions. It is supposed that the sanctions list will include 156 legal entities and more than a thousand individuals, among whom will surely be many organizations and people from the Russian military-industrial complex. [7] and [24]

- Unsustainable Militarization & renewal stalling: Russia will not need its military-industrial complex for the next 20-30 years. Russia needs receivership and the Marshall Plan. This statement would be wrong, if the Constitution of the Russian Federation acted in Russia, and there was society in the sense of ‘nation’. But we have nothing, and will not have, as long as it appears with the help of receivership as it was in West Germany after 1945 and de-Nazification. The Russian military-industrial complex is doomed.The Russian military-industrial complex has international sanctions imposed against it, which have long hammered the final nail in its coffin by a simple forward contract. The latest weapons of the XXI century and the sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex are incompatible with each other. The program of upgrading the Russian army for the period up to 2020 is just the greatest scheme of stealing 20 trillion rubles in the history of Russia, and nothing more. By 2020, some will become very rich, a lot of people will become very poor, but there will be no Russian military-industrial complex, as there will be no XXI century weapons. When the ‘guns before butter’ choice is made, in the conditions of attacks on other countries and international sanctions, there will be no guns, no butter, no country,” Rabinovich wrote on his page on Facebook [7] and [24]

-Collapse of defence parts industry** Russia has no substitution for many critical Ukrainian military parts [7]

-Russian navy falling apart:The only RU aircraft carrierKuznetsov doesn't have many years left in her. Her boilers are "defective," according to the trade publication Defense Industry Daily. Yet when she goes to the breakers to be dismantled, Moscow could find it impossible to replace her. For one, the shipyard that built all the Soviet carriers now belongs to Ukraine. It lies just outside of Crimea, and Russian forces did not manage to seize it. Moreover, Ukraine is still the exclusive supplier for many of the heavy components, including engines and gears, for Russia's warships — even the ones Russia builds in its northern shipyard. With the continuing tense stand-off, Kiev recently banned arms sales to Moscow. Russia's attempts to revitalize its domestic shipbuilding industry have not gone smoothly. In 2005, India inked a nearly $1-billion deal with Russia for a rebuilt Soviet-era small flattop. Russia's work on Vikramaditya was so poor, however, that she suffered a near-total breakdown shortly after her purported completion in 2012.

India finally accepted Vikramaditya in 2014 — after the total cost of her refurbishment had nearly tripled to $2.3 billion. If Russia can't even remodel an existing warship, imagine the difficulties it would face designing and building a big new ship from scratch. [52]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

-Innovation: Russia's Space Program in Crisis After Decades of Brain Drain, Neglect. "The Russian space industry is in an obvious state of crisis," said Asif Siddiqi, a professor at Fordham University in New York and an expert on Russia's space program. Russia has lost 15 spacecraft since 2010, with assembly mistakes blamed in most cases. [41]

-Innovation: "We've fallen behind on {our space} science program ... We've forgotten how to make and fly unmanned probes," said Igor Marinin, head of industry publication Novosti Kosmonavtiki. Space probes take years to reach their destination — but Russia does not have a single one making its way through space. Its latest successful probe wrapped operations in 1986. Part of the problem is that while Russia boosted space spending from $960 million in 2005 to $4.1 billion last year, this is still dwarfed by NASA, which spent $17.6 billion in 2014. [44]

-Innovation: Brain Drain**: A brain drain is also hobbling the sector. The Russian space industry was depleted of manpower after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 and many experts fled to better-paying jobs in the West. This, in turn, caused a generation gap, particularly in crucial research and development. "None of the long-term plans proposed in the past 15 years have been completely achieved on time" "The 40-somethings that are supposed to be taking up top jobs in the industry should have started in the 1990s — and they didn't," Marinin said. And while salaries have improved over the last two decades, they still haven't reached anything close to parity with the West: A Russian cosmonaut made just $26,000 a year in 2012, compared to $63,000 to $139,000 at NASA, according to state agency RIA Novosti. Money problems aren't going away. Falling oil prices and Western sanctions could see billions stripped from Russia's space program over the coming years, experts say. This is money that Russia's Federal Space Agency, the Roscosmos, can hardly afford to lose. (Roscosmos did not respond to a request for comment on this story). So Russia's state-dominated space industry is set to continue struggling to outperform its Western counterparts. Meanwhile, existing companies are plagued by lack of quality control and expert oversight. In 2013, a Proton rocket was lost because a worker installed a sensor upside down — and hammered it in to fit.

Added to this, economic sanctions mean certain spaceship components can no longer be imported (from Ukraine or the west-WD) and must now be reinvented in Russia. [44]

-Innovation: Brain Drain: 1/3 of university graduates want to emigrate from RU work abroad [55]

- Alienation of Europe & the West; Putin and company have managed to alienate the entire civilized world and to become a pariah state. [40] Most recently the Russian Veto in the UN Security council over the MH17 tribunal

-Alienation of Europe & the West: Russia has outraged and alienated Europe and much of the Arab world. It is fitting that Russian analysts are calling for Moscow to defend its final stronghold in the Middle East. Thanks to the work of our agents of influence, Syria is set to become Russia’s Last Stand in the region. Even the short-term survival of the Assad regime only works to deepen the bitterness the Sunni majority feels toward Russia. Indeed, Russia’s identification with Shi’a forces—Iran, Assad, and Hizballah—ensures the wider alienation of Russia from the 90 percent of the world’s Muslims who are Sunni. As we’ve already seen in Libya, the inevitable collapse of Assad and other retrograde client states elsewhere will ultimately deprive Russia of the billions of dollars it invested there, and leave Moscow increasingly isolated and disliked internationally. [7]

- Pariah state:Spies and agents of influence: Four European parties from the far right to the radical left -- France’s National Front, the U.K. Independence Party, the Danish People’s party and Greece’s Syriza --have expressed sympathy for Putin while finishing first in their national elections to the European Parliament last year. Putin has worked to build bridges to governments in Greece, Cyprus and Hungary. One of Budapest’s lawmakers in the EU Parliament, Bela Kovacs, is accused by Hungarian prosecutors of being a Russian spy, which he denies.

“If you look at almost every far-left or far-right organization in Europe today, the one unifying theme is that they all look up to Mr. Putin as a role model,” Eyal, director of the London-based Royal United Services Institute for defense studies, or RUSI, said in an interview in London. Putin has built an “enormous apparatus” across Europe in part because of the huge sums of money he’s been showering on the spy services, according to Oleg Gordievsky, a former KGB colonel who spied for the U.K. from 1974 to 1985, when he was smuggled into Finland in the trunk of a car. [43]

- Pariah state:Spies and agents of influence: Sweden’s service, SAPO, says that Russia has deployed “hundreds” of spies on missions around Europe, including Stockholm, and that they operate across “a series of platforms,” including consulting, media and travel. Defense, national security and law enforcement now eat up 34 percent of Russia’s budget, more than double the level in 2010. The share of spending that’s black -- authorized but not itemized -- has doubled in the period to 21 percent, or 3.2 trillion rubles ($50 billion), according to the Gaidar Institute, an independent research group in Moscow.

[7] and [43]

-Pariah State:Russia FSB fueling ISIS with Jihadists. Even as America touts its counterterrorism partnerships with Russia, evidence points to the FSB directly feeding Dagestanis to ISIS. [...]Proof, if it were needed, for how valued this cooperation is among U.S. policymakers came in the conspicuous absence of Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, from sanctions levied by the Treasury Department against Russian officials. The sanctions targeted bureaucrats involved in both the invasion and occupation of Crimea and the unacknowledged maskirovka war that Moscow is still waging in eastern Ukraine—a war that has drawn amply on the resources of the FSB and has included several “former” FSB officers on the battlefield. Not only was Bortnikov not sanctioned, he was invited by the White House last February as a guest to President Obama’s three-day conference on “countering violent extremism,” whereas the current FBI director, James Comey, was not. [...] Yet a recent investigation conducted by Novaya Gazeta, one of the few independent newspapers left in Russia, complicates this cozy tale of counterterrorist cooperation. Based on extensive fieldwork in one village in the North Caucasus, reporter Elena Milashina has concluded that the “Russian special services have controlled” the flow of jihadists into Syria, where they have lately joined up not only with ISIS but other radical Islamist factions. In other words, Russian officials are adding to the ranks of terrorists which the Russian government has deemed a collective threat to the security and longevity of its dictatorial ally on the Mediterranean, Bashar al-Assad. […]The FSB established a “green corridor” to allow them {Jihadists} to migrate first to Turkey, and then to Syria. (Russians, including those living in the North Caucasus, can catch any of the daily non-stop flights to Istanbul and visit Turkey without a visa.) [46]

- No Incentive to Change** : Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it. How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy. (TIME, Pew Research Center, Washington Post, Pew Research Center) [21]

-No Constant Pressure on Elites: Unwillingness of the population to keep up the pressure on elites. In January 1991, nearly half a million Russians went into the streets in Moscow to protest the Kremlin’s actions in Lithuania; and that “response of the Muscovites was a decisive factor in the liberation of the Baltic countries.” But a few years later, far fewer were ready to go into the streets to protest Yeltsin’s criminal war against Chechnya. And “what do we see now?” There were protests at the end of 2011 and in May 2012, but the numbers were much smaller, a maximum of 100,000; and those who took part were immediately “written down as a fifth column.” And there have been far fewer brave enough to protest what Moscow is doing in Ukraine. [36]

-No Lustration: failure of the country to conduct lustration so that those with the values and styles of the Soviet regime would not return. They did not ask themselves the most obvious question: could they imagine a post-war Germany in which a Gestapo officer could become chancellor? But because they did not resist this in Russia’s case, “the KGB (now the FSB) was preserved, not reformed, and has taken its revenge.”Kovalyev says that he does not exclude the possibility that the Russian Federation will suffer the same fate as the USSR, adding that he “has hope and at the same time fear that the current situation cannot extend for a long time.” It is clearly the case that the current regime must be replaced, but it is “another question as to who can be its replacement.” [36]

-Hopelessness: The gloom now reflects the old adage that “the night is darkest just before the dawn.” [36]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Putin Alienating Kremlin Elites with His Nuclear Blackmail Threats Such a demonstration of “schizophrenia in the Kremlin,” one that is approaching “the clinical,” Borovoy argues, frightens those with the elite who still have a modicum of good sense because it signals that there is very little Moscow might do and that the actions of the foreign ministry are simply another part of the Kremlin’s “propaganda machine.” Those within the elite may be more likely to desert him over this than even over economic sanctions, Borovoy suggests, because everyone can now see that the Putin regime is behaving according to the following “inadequate” logic: “Because we do not like your reaction to the downing of the Boeing, we will no longer feel bound by the non-proliferation treaty and provide nuclear arms to those who want them.”

Such a declaration, the Russian opposition figure says, is “in violation of all international agreements.” Moreover, he argues, “the despair in which Putin finds himself suggests that such inadequate actions will be carried out.” That in turn will force the international community to conclude that one of its members “has gone mad.” [30]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way? [35]

-Kremlin Revolt** Opposition calls for civil disobedience; Mikhail Khodorkovsky says that Russian citizens are fully entitled not to observe unjust laws imposed not to promote justice but to protect the power of Vladimir Putin, a potentially dramatic development in the relationship between the Russian opposition, the Russian people, and the Kremlin [56]

-Xenophobia: Foreign Agents Law. “it is immoral and unjust to label groups ‘foreign agents’ and drive out of the country the Dynasty Foundation which supports scholarship while at the same time [the pro-Kremlin] United Russia Party receives financing from offshore accounts.” [56]

-Sovereign Debt Default**: “International rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s warn that Russia might default in a massive way sometime in the next two or three years. They suggest that Russia’s regions won’t be able to pay their debts, and Moscow will have trouble covering them. Moreover, these experts note, the Russian economy is now in recession, an economic downturn deepened by international sanctions, a decline in the price of oil and the devaluation of the ruble which makes repaying any foreign debt all the more expensive. “From this,” Dokuchayev writes, “extends a direct path to sovereign default.” By the end of this year, Russian companies and banks must repay 134 billion US dollars in foreign obligations. That is no small sum, but it would seem bearable given that the country’s reserves are about 400 billion US dollars. But if Moscow has to cover other losses, seeks to support the ruble, and faces a new drop in oil prices, that may not be enough. Many of those suggesting that Russia is at risk of another default focus on the last factor and suggest that as Iran comes back on stream and the war in Libya ebbs, the supply of oil relative to demand will grow and prices will fall to 20 US dollars a barrel or even lower in the coming months. If that happens, the “Novyye izvestiya” writer says, a dollar will be equal to 120-130 rubles and a euro to “about 150.” That could lead Russia to default by itself.” [31]

-Sovereign Wealth Fund: **Russia has already been forced to dip into its huge Sovereign Wealth Fund, saved during the years of high oil prices. Anton Siluanov, the Finance Minister, has warned that if the budget deficit does not reduce, the entire fund could soon be used up. [32]

-Existential Threat to the USA: Pentagon chief: Russia is a 'very significant threat; 'Defense Secretary Ash Carter is calling Russia a "very, very significant threat," agreeing with an assessment made by top military officials. A chorus of top military and political officials (General Dunsford, Secretary of State John Kerry, his top Europe official, Victoria Nuland, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, and General Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander for NATO) have said recently that Russia is the top threat to the U.S.'s national security in comparison to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. [34]

130 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, Collapse and Implosion of the Russian Federation, a failed state just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzkotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb08678bb3970d2015-08-23T14:59:24-04:002015-08-23T14:59:24-04:00In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently...SmartEconomy

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime)

http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (B. Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites. The KGB was even on my back by writing nasty Soviet style yellow journalism smear postings against me , so I guess the article hit a nerve in the Kremlin. The KGB was logging into my blog site daily for about 6 months after that.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my sixth cut. Thank you to everyone who has suggested new data points that I missed.

The Key Driving forces are in red and with **

There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Or a sovereign debt default? Watch for an August 2015 Surprise !!!!

130 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay and Collapse of the Russian Federation just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, drug use, chronic human disease, violence, poor diets and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: According to Russian health experts, 40 percent or more of the infant deaths in Russia are caused by social factors like alcoholism and drug use by parents or their failure to take their children to doctors or hospitals or to get required vaccinations. [26]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: The mortality among working-age Russians is rising. In 2014, for example, mortality rates among Russians aged 30 to 45 went up by 1.2 percent. [26]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia is aging and the birth rate is plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years. Consequently, even if each women were to have more children, the total number of births would fall. [6] and [26]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Unproductive workforce: Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

-Migration: It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.(Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post) [21]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes are now being accused of doping over the last decade.

-Corruption: Average Bribe in Russia Doubles in Rubles, Remains Steady in Dollars. The amount of the average bribe in Russia has nearly doubled this year, reaching 208,000 rubles ($3,485 at today's rate), as the country's currency has shed value amid Western sanctions and an economic downturn, according to Interior Ministry estimates cited by pro-government Izvestia daily on Friday. This compares to about 109,000 rubles Russians are believed to have been paying or receiving as an average bribe in 2014, though police concede that their estimates may not be completely accurate, the report said.The increase in bribe amounts is substantially less significant in their dollar equivalent, because the Russian ruble traded at around 35 to the dollar at the start of 2014, but has slumped to around 60 to the dollar as of this week. [28]

-Corruption: Crony Bailouts and Crony Capitalism:** Despite the economic crisis, Duma deputies say, the Kremlin is continuing its “Robin Hood in reverse” strategy, taking from the poor and giving to the rich, an approach which was never popular even when the Russian economy was growing but now is highly offensive when it is not. “Nezavisimaya gazeta” reported that the Audit Chamber had found that the finance ministry had handed out more than ten billion dollars in the last year to firms without adequate checks, a figure more than the ministry said it had to cut the indexation of pensions because of budgetary problems. Clearly, there are officials prepared to take the last kopeck from pensioners and hand out big money to their friends instead.[37]

-Corruption: Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Culture of Kleptocracy: Russia’s appalling business reputation acts both as a brake on foreign investment and a stimulus to capital flight. [7]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or a spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Overregulation: Back to centralized control: The Russian government has resumed pressure on exporters to sell foreign currency in an effort to prevent global market turbulence from triggering another rouble sell-off. In meetings and calls from August 19, Central Bank and cabinet officials instructed executives at state-owned and private companies on when and how much of their dollar revenues to convert to roubles, company officials said. "There is monitoring on a daily basis now," said a source at Alrosa, the diamond miner. An source close to Rosneft, the state oil company, said: "Forex sales are being conducted on direct orders from the government." [37]

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US & Russia assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty --revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion. [7]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President VladimirPutin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-China Pivot off: The launch of China’s "New Silk Road" last month, bypassing Russian territory, was a serious blow to the Russian economic interests. The first Nomadexpress container train has already traveled on route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alat (Azerbaijan). From Azerbaijan, the express goes to Georgia, Turkey and the EU. Thus, a joint project of the Trans-Caspian international transport route and the New Silk Road became a reality. The main feature of the project is bypassing Russian territory. Another important caveat is the time. The route takes six days to cover, instead of 25-40 as before. Of course, China is challenging Russia as Eurasia’s largest Eurasian transit state. The New Silk Road has the potential to become more attractive than the obsolete Trans-Siberian Railway. Moreover, Kazakhstan's participation in the project almost completely eliminates the issue of its further foreign policy orientation – it has shifted from Moscow to Beijing. By the way, in this context, Ukraine also has a unique opportunity to expand its own transit opportunities thanks to Chinese shipments. [23]

-China Pivot Off: Gas cooperation between Russia and China is frozen. The gas contract between Russia’s Gazprom and China's CNPC on construction of a Power of Siberia pipeline, pompously presented earlier (signed in May 2014, its estimated total value was $400 billion), is frozen for an indefinite period. As it turned out, the idea of ​​reorientation of Russian gas exports from Europe to Asia, with China being a priority, has failed. The main reason is the reduction of gas consumption in China caused by the slowdown in the country’s economic growth, the development of gas production within its own territory (By 2020, China will have produced nearly 30 bcm of shale gas alone), focus on gas imports from Turkmenistan (China currently imports 30 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan, with the possibility of expanding imports to 60-70 bcm by 2020), as well as a gradual decrease in share of oil and gas energy in the country’s total energy balance within the framework of the latest global trends. Besides, the Chinese side did not agree to the price offered by Gazprom, which attempted to propose an equivalent to the European price. China has almost always pushed for the suitable price, which is significantly lower than that for other purchasers of the Russian gas. It is equally important that Bejing has provided no options of the financial assistance whatsoever for the construction of new gas pipelines on Russian territory, to the Chinese borders. Such stalemate allows forgetting the prospects of gas cooperation between the two countries. Besides, it is better for China to wait a full collapse of Putin's regime, so that, as member of anti-Russian coalition club, it could bite a piece of the “Siberian pie”, on far more favorable conditions of access to the those very oil and gas fields. It seems like China has flagrantly given Putin a “black mark” on a gas issue.[23]

-China Pivot Off; Bank transactions sour. With regard to financial cooperation between the two countries, there is growing evidence of Chinese banks' reluctance to carry out interbank transactions with their Russian partners. Chinese banks have also considerably reduced participation in foreign trade transactions with Russia. Cases of recent expansion of payments in rubles and yuan in certain Chinese border provinces can be explained by China’s will to extend the operating field for yuan, as Bejing has witnessed sharp reduction in the inflow of foreign currency to Russia, especially of the US dollar and euro. So, Putin should not expect any financial aid from China. There are currently no other donors due to severe Western sanctions, and they are not expected to emerge any time soon. [23]

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Land is yet another demonstrative issue in Russian-Chinese relations. More precisely, it is about Bejing’s rapidly growing appetite for the development of Russian territories. For example, a huge stir in Russia was caused by the plans of Trans-Baikal regional authorities to lease nearly 300,000 hectares of land to the Chinese company Huae Xinban for a 49-year term for less than $5 per hectare. Although this issue has not yet been fully resolved, the locals have already organized a protest movement. Most probably, the opinion of local activists will not be taken into account, and China will get the desired land by either paying more for the rent, or simply by financially stimulating Russian officials. No wonder the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev offers Russian youth to study Chinese, not just English.

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Another fact confirming the intention of China to get hold of as much Russian resources and territories as it possibly can until the final collapse of the present Russian Federation is the country’s broad interests in Russia’s Magadan region, the top region in silver mining and the fourth in gold extraction. Chinese Southwest mining company has decided to invest RUR 400 million this year in the development of deposits of antimony and silver. The company's plans cover the construction of roads in the region, mineral exploration, and mining of silver and other precious metals in the already known deposits. Earlier, the Kremlin did not allow China getting close to Russia’s main fields of natural resources across Siberia and the Far East. [23]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Evaporating Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Foreign investment is now below zero Foreign direct investment stopped coming to Russia at the beginning of 2014 according to Central Bank data . "Currently, there are direct and indirect bans on investing in Russia and our western partners now have doubts about some of Russia's large-scale projects," [7] and [22]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2017 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15] Also Ukraine ready to stop financing Donbas enclave controlled by Russian terrorists [39]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-War in Ukraine: Putin calculated that everyone would close their eyes to the annexation of Crimea. After an initial burst of euphoria, Crimea has turned out to be a burden rather than a victory; Ukrainians in the east have not supported Putin’s aggression, and “besides, the West is acting in a very monolithic and consolidated way by introducing serious sanctions which are constantly being intensified. At the same time, no one supports Russia,” not even its “closest and most dependent” neighbors. [25]

-War in Ukraine: Eastern Ukraine resembles Transdniestria but not really Abkhazia or South Osetia, Zubov suggests. Both places are ones in which “the soviet mentality dominates.” For Ukraine’s future, “it is very important that this mentality be overcome,” and that will require tact and care in dealing with the population of the east once Russian forces leave. Once Moscow pulls its forces out, Zubov argues, pro-Moscow groups “will not hold out two weeks. They understand that perfectly well, and therefore as soon as Russia leaves the Donbas, they will go with it, surrender or flee. The so-called LNR and DNR will cease their existence very quickly.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: And Russia will leave {Ukraine} because it does not want to suffer further sanctions and become a large North Korea. According to Zubov, “unofficial talks are going on about this now.” Their task is simple: how can Russia leave without losing face. “But apparently, it won’t be able to do so without losing face.” Thus, Ukraine will have to show great tact in dealing with the situation. Putin wasn’t prepared for all this because he had not prepared for war. Indeed, Zubov says, “no one seriously thought about war even in Soviet times, and when Khrushchev attempted to do something in Cuba in 1962, he was immediately removed. Everyone understands that nuclear war is impossible. Therefore Russia only uses this as a threat.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: How will Putin pull out? Zubov says that in his view, Putin launched his aggression in Ukraine for three reasons: to boost his popularity, to keep Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence, and to ensure that Russia’s military-industrial complex would not suffer given the importance of Ukrainian plants for its operation. But because he miscalculated, the Kremlin leader “has lost everything.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: Dead Russian soldiers a state secret. Last May President Putin officially declared military deaths in peacetime a state secret. His decision was seen as an attempt to cover up the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine war. Russian human-rights groups protested Putin’s decree. Last week, the Supreme Court upheld Putin’s decree, ruling against the complaint by a Russian civil society group claiming that the decree was illegal, that it was hiding the true information about Russia’s military involvement in eastern Ukraine.[33]

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Low energy/ oil prices; The Russian budget needed $85-$100 oil to break even, depending on which source you listen to. Now in Aug 2015 it’s in the mid $40s

-Low energy/oil prices: Russia is at the Mercy of Oil Markets. The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors (US fracking and LNG), and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

-Low energy/oil prices: Eleven of Russia’s 14 oil processing firms are now operating at a deficit; and consequently, “what we see today is just the quiet before a very strong storm.” [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Even if oil prices were to rise to 70 dollars a barrel, that would not be enough to prevent a further decline in the Russian economy. And given that the actual price will be much lower, that decline will be very steep indeed. As prices fall to 40 dollars a barrel, Zhukovsky says, Russia will discover “a third bottom” and then “a fourth” and so on. [20]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Lack of Diversification: It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia. Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development. (JYSkebank, The Economist) [21]

-No Technology substitution: Russians need to recognize that the low oil prices are not the product of “a conspiracy of the US and the Arabs against Russia.” Instead, they are the result of an Arab effort to drive down the price so that the latest technological innovations in extraction technology the Americans have will not be profitable. Russia isn’t part of the equation for either, Zhukovsky says, but this also means, the basic trend won’t change anytime soon. Moreover, if Russia sits and does not make fundamental change, the new oil extraction technologies will in fact be “a death sentence” for the Russian economy. Russia’s only chance to “move forward” is to focus on scientific and technical progress, to behave as the Chinese have done gradually shifting into ever higher tech areas rather than relying on the sale of natural resources or minimally processed goods. But that is not what the Russian government is doing. [20]

-Economic speculation: Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. If he is even partially correct, Russia faces not a “black Monday” or a “black September” but a “black” and bleak future. […] Many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at firesale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s. These people, Zhukovsky says, “have their families, portfolios and property abroad. They are interested in having the situation in Russia be as bad as possible and the ruble to fall as far as possible so that they will be able to sell their apartments there and buy them here on the cheap.” In 1998, at the time of defaults, the Russian stock market fell 80 percent, the ruble fell 84 percent, “and all our bureaucrats … took the money they had and converted it into hard currency. “When the market collapsed, they bought shares at three cents on the dollar. The very same thing is happening now. Moreover, Zhukovsky adds, after the coming collapse “the American, European or Chinese investors will come.” They too will take advantage of the low prices just as they did in 1992 and 1998 [20]

-Independent Press shut down [7]

-Opposition hounded, jailed or murdered [7]

-Western food embargo; Putin orders that tons of western food be destroyed

-Western food embargo: Putin to ban four EU food exporters - Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro and Ukrainian food exports to Russia from Jan 1, 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty; The potential Ukraine ban is more significant, with food exports to Russia last year still worth $415 million, out of total exports of $11 billion, despite the conflict over Crimea and in east Ukraine. The Iceland ban is the biggest. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, the Nordic state exported $232 million of mostly seafood to Russia in 2014. Albania exported $10 million of fruit and dairy. Montenegro exported $40,000 of fruit and vegetables. Liechtenstein didn’t export any food. [19]

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 14 million that live in 319 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7] and [27]

-Growing Poverty levels**: Falling or No government subsidies for 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others.

-Military Industrial complex decay**: “A couple of months ago, Vladimir Ryzhkov visited Mikhail Sokolov on air of Radio Svoboda and lamented the fact that Putin’s geopolitical adventures were destroying the Russian military-industrial complex, because a huge part of the supply of components, systems, engines, etc. in the Russian arsenal belonged to the Ukrainian companies. Now they do not cooperate with the Russian military-industrial complex, and the Russian military-industrial complex will be destroyed. In September 2014, in the first round of the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia, apart from other measures, it was banned to export a number of military goods. Now the government of Ukraine has approved an expanded package of sanctions. It is supposed that the sanctions list will include 156 legal entities and more than a thousand individuals, among whom will surely be many organizations and people from the Russian military-industrial complex. [7] and [24]

- Unsustainable Militarization & renewal stalling: Russia will not need its military-industrial complex for the next 20-30 years. Russia needs receivership and the Marshall Plan. This statement would be wrong, if the Constitution of the Russian Federation acted in Russia, and there was society in the sense of ‘nation’. But we have nothing, and will not have, as long as it appears with the help of receivership as it was in West Germany after 1945 and de-Nazification. The Russian military-industrial complex is doomed.The Russian military-industrial complex has international sanctions imposed against it, which have long hammered the final nail in its coffin by a simple forward contract. The latest weapons of the XXI century and the sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex are incompatible with each other. The program of upgrading the Russian army for the period up to 2020 is just the greatest scheme of stealing 20 trillion rubles in the history of Russia, and nothing more. By 2020, some will become very rich, a lot of people will become very poor, but there will be no Russian military-industrial complex, as there will be no XXI century weapons. When the ‘guns before butter’ choice is made, in the conditions of attacks on other countries and international sanctions, there will be no guns, no butter, no country,” Rabinovich wrote on his page on Facebook [7] and [24]

-Collapse of defence parts industry** Russia has no substitution for many critical Ukrainian military parts [7]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

- Alienation of Europe & the West; Russian Veto in the UN Security council over the MH17 tribunal

-Alienation of Europe & the West: Russia has outraged and alienated Europe and much of the Arab world. It is fitting that Russian analysts are calling for Moscow to defend its final stronghold in the Middle East. Thanks to the work of our agents of influence, Syria is set to become Russia’s Last Stand in the region. Even the short-term survival of the Assad regime only works to deepen the bitterness the Sunni majority feels toward Russia. Indeed, Russia’s identification with Shi’a forces—Iran, Assad, and Hizballah—ensures the wider alienation of Russia from the 90 percent of the world’s Muslims who are Sunni. As we’ve already seen in Libya, the inevitable collapse of Assad and other retrograde client states elsewhere will ultimately deprive Russia of the billions of dollars it invested there, and leave Moscow increasingly isolated and disliked internationally. [7]

- No Incentive to Change** : Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it. How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy. (TIME, Pew Research Center, Washington Post, Pew Research Center) [21]

-No Constant Pressure on Elites: Unwillingness of the population to keep up the pressure on elites. In January 1991, nearly half a million Russians went into the streets in Moscow to protest the Kremlin’s actions in Lithuania; and that “response of the Muscovites was a decisive factor in the liberation of the Baltic countries.” But a few years later, far fewer were ready to go into the streets to protest Yeltsin’s criminal war against Chechnya. And “what do we see now?” There were protests at the end of 2011 and in May 2012, but the numbers were much smaller, a maximum of 100,000; and those who took part were immediately “written down as a fifth column.” And there have been far fewer brave enough to protest what Moscow is doing in Ukraine. [36]

-No Lustration: failure of the country to conduct lustration so that those with the values and styles of the Soviet regime would not return. They did not ask themselves the most obvious question: could they imagine a post-war Germany in which a Gestapo officer could become chancellor? But because they did not resist this in Russia’s case, “the KGB (now the FSB) was preserved, not reformed, and has taken its revenge.”Kovalyev says that he does not exclude the possibility that the Russian Federation will suffer the same fate as the USSR, adding that he “has hope and at the same time fear that the current situation cannot extend for a long time.” It is clearly the case that the current regime must be replaced, but it is “another question as to who can be its replacement.” [36]

-Hopelessness: The gloom now reflects the old adage that “the night is darkest just before the dawn.” [36]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Putin Alienating Kremlin Elites with His Nuclear Blackmail Threats Such a demonstration of “schizophrenia in the Kremlin,” one that is approaching “the clinical,” Borovoy argues, frightens those with the elite who still have a modicum of good sense because it signals that there is very little Moscow might do and that the actions of the foreign ministry are simply another part of the Kremlin’s “propaganda machine.” Those within the elite may be more likely to desert him over this than even over economic sanctions, Borovoy suggests, because everyone can now see that the Putin regime is behaving according to the following “inadequate” logic: “Because we do not like your reaction to the downing of the Boeing, we will no longer feel bound by the non-proliferation treaty and provide nuclear arms to those who want them.”

Such a declaration, the Russian opposition figure says, is “in violation of all international agreements.” Moreover, he argues, “the despair in which Putin finds himself suggests that such inadequate actions will be carried out.” That in turn will force the international community to conclude that one of its members “has gone mad.” [30]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way? [35]

-Sovereign Debt Default**: “International rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s warn that Russia might default in a massive way sometime in the next two or three years. They suggest that Russia’s regions won’t be able to pay their debts, and Moscow will have trouble covering them. Moreover, these experts note, the Russian economy is now in recession, an economic downturn deepened by international sanctions, a decline in the price of oil and the devaluation of the ruble which makes repaying any foreign debt all the more expensive. “From this,” Dokuchayev writes, “extends a direct path to sovereign default.” By the end of this year, Russian companies and banks must repay 134 billion US dollars in foreign obligations. That is no small sum, but it would seem bearable given that the country’s reserves are about 400 billion US dollars. But if Moscow has to cover other losses, seeks to support the ruble, and faces a new drop in oil prices, that may not be enough. Many of those suggesting that Russia is at risk of another default focus on the last factor and suggest that as Iran comes back on stream and the war in Libya ebbs, the supply of oil relative to demand will grow and prices will fall to 20 US dollars a barrel or even lower in the coming months. If that happens, the “Novyye izvestiya” writer says, a dollar will be equal to 120-130 rubles and a euro to “about 150.” That could lead Russia to default by itself.” [31]

-Sovereign Wealth Fund: **Russia has already been forced to dip into its huge Sovereign Wealth Fund, saved during the years of high oil prices. Anton Siluanov, the Finance Minister, has warned that if the budget deficit does not reduce, the entire fund could soon be used up. [32]

-Existential Threat to the USA: Pentagon chief: Russia is a 'very significant threat; 'Defense Secretary Ash Carter is calling Russia a "very, very significant threat," agreeing with an assessment made by top military officials. A chorus of top military and political officials (General Dunsford, Secretary of State John Kerry, his top Europe official, Victoria Nuland, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, and General Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander for NATO) have said recently that Russia is the top threat to the U.S.'s national security in comparison to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. [34]

124 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, Collapse and Implosion of the Russian Federation, a failed state just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzkotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b7c7c2869e970b2015-08-21T14:08:39-04:002015-08-21T14:08:39-04:00In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently...SmartEconomy

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime)

http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (B. Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites. The KGB was even on my back by writing nasty Soviet style yellow journalism smear postings against me , so I guess the article hit a nerve in the Kremlin. The KGB was logging into my blog site daily for about 6 months after that.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my fourth cut. Thank you to everyone who has suggested new data points that I missed.

There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Or a sovereign debt default? Watch for an August 2015 Surprise !!!!

124 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay and Collapse of the Russian Federation just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, drug use, chronic human disease, violence, poor diets and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: According to Russian health experts, 40 percent or more of the infant deaths in Russia are caused by social factors like alcoholism and drug use by parents or their failure to take their children to doctors or hospitals or to get required vaccinations. [26]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: The mortality among working-age Russians is rising. In 2014, for example, mortality rates among Russians aged 30 to 45 went up by 1.2 percent. [26]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia is aging and the birth rate is plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years. Consequently, even if each women were to have more children, the total number of births would fall. [6] and [26]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Unproductive workforce: Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

-Migration: It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.(Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post) [21]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes are now being accused of doping over the last decade.

-Corruption: Average Bribe in Russia Doubles in Rubles, Remains Steady in Dollars. The amount of the average bribe in Russia has nearly doubled this year, reaching 208,000 rubles ($3,485 at today's rate), as the country's currency has shed value amid Western sanctions and an economic downturn, according to Interior Ministry estimates cited by pro-government Izvestia daily on Friday. This compares to about 109,000 rubles Russians are believed to have been paying or receiving as an average bribe in 2014, though police concede that their estimates may not be completely accurate, the report said.The increase in bribe amounts is substantially less significant in their dollar equivalent, because the Russian ruble traded at around 35 to the dollar at the start of 2014, but has slumped to around 60 to the dollar as of this week. [28]

-Corruption: Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Culture of Kleptocracy: Russia’s appalling business reputation acts both as a brake on foreign investment and a stimulus to capital flight. [7]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or a spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US & Russia assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty --revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion. [7]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-China Pivot off: The launch of China’s "New Silk Road" last month, bypassing Russian territory, was a serious blow to the Russian economic interests. The first Nomadexpress container train has already traveled on route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alat (Azerbaijan). From Azerbaijan, the express goes to Georgia, Turkey and the EU. Thus, a joint project of the Trans-Caspian international transport route and the New Silk Road became a reality. The main feature of the project is bypassing Russian territory. Another important caveat is the time. The route takes six days to cover, instead of 25-40 as before. Of course, China is challenging Russia as Eurasia’s largest Eurasian transit state. The New Silk Road has the potential to become more attractive than the obsolete Trans-Siberian Railway. Moreover, Kazakhstan's participation in the project almost completely eliminates the issue of its further foreign policy orientation – it has shifted from Moscow to Beijing. By the way, in this context, Ukraine also has a unique opportunity to expand its own transit opportunities thanks to Chinese shipments. [23]

-China Pivot Off: Gas cooperation between Russia and China is frozen. The gas contract between Russia’s Gazprom and China's CNPC on construction of a Power of Siberia pipeline, pompously presented earlier (signed in May 2014, its estimated total value was $400 billion), is frozen for an indefinite period. As it turned out, the idea of ​​reorientation of Russian gas exports from Europe to Asia, with China being a priority, has failed. The main reason is the reduction of gas consumption in China caused by the slowdown in the country’s economic growth, the development of gas production within its own territory (By 2020, China will have produced nearly 30 bcm of shale gas alone), focus on gas imports from Turkmenistan (China currently imports 30 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan, with the possibility of expanding imports to 60-70 bcm by 2020), as well as a gradual decrease in share of oil and gas energy in the country’s total energy balance within the framework of the latest global trends. Besides, the Chinese side did not agree to the price offered by Gazprom, which attempted to propose an equivalent to the European price. China has almost always pushed for the suitable price, which is significantly lower than that for other purchasers of the Russian gas. It is equally important that Bejing has provided no options of the financial assistance whatsoever for the construction of new gas pipelines on Russian territory, to the Chinese borders. Such stalemate allows forgetting the prospects of gas cooperation between the two countries. Besides, it is better for China to wait a full collapse of Putin's regime, so that, as member of anti-Russian coalition club, it could bite a piece of the “Siberian pie”, on far more favorable conditions of access to the those very oil and gas fields. It seems like China has flagrantly given Putin a “black mark” on a gas issue.[23]

-China Pivot Off; Bank transactions sour. With regard to financial cooperation between the two countries, there is growing evidence of Chinese banks' reluctance to carry out interbank transactions with their Russian partners. Chinese banks have also considerably reduced participation in foreign trade transactions with Russia. Cases of recent expansion of payments in rubles and yuan in certain Chinese border provinces can be explained by China’s will to extend the operating field for yuan, as Bejing has witnessed sharp reduction in the inflow of foreign currency to Russia, especially of the US dollar and euro. So, Putin should not expect any financial aid from China. There are currently no other donors due to severe Western sanctions, and they are not expected to emerge any time soon. [23]

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Land is yet another demonstrative issue in Russian-Chinese relations. More precisely, it is about Bejing’s rapidly growing appetite for the development of Russian territories. For example, a huge stir in Russia was caused by the plans of Trans-Baikal regional authorities to lease nearly 300,000 hectares of land to the Chinese company Huae Xinban for a 49-year term for less than $5 per hectare. Although this issue has not yet been fully resolved, the locals have already organized a protest movement. Most probably, the opinion of local activists will not be taken into account, and China will get the desired land by either paying more for the rent, or simply by financially stimulating Russian officials. No wonder the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev offers Russian youth to study Chinese, not just English.

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Another fact confirming the intention of China to get hold of as much Russian resources and territories as it possibly can until the final collapse of the present Russian Federation is the country’s broad interests in Russia’s Magadan region, the top region in silver mining and the fourth in gold extraction. Chinese Southwest mining company has decided to invest RUR 400 million this year in the development of deposits of antimony and silver. The company's plans cover the construction of roads in the region, mineral exploration, and mining of silver and other precious metals in the already known deposits. Earlier, the Kremlin did not allow China getting close to Russia’s main fields of natural resources across Siberia and the Far East. [23]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Evaporating Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Foreign investment is now below zero Foreign direct investment stopped coming to Russia at the beginning of 2014 according to Central Bank data . "Currently, there are direct and indirect bans on investing in Russia and our western partners now have doubts about some of Russia's large-scale projects," [7] and [22]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2017 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-War in Ukraine: Putin calculated that everyone would close their eyes to the annexation of Crimea. After an initial burst of euphoria, Crimea has turned out to be a burden rather than a victory; Ukrainians in the east have not supported Putin’s aggression, and “besides, the West is acting in a very monolithic and consolidated way by introducing serious sanctions which are constantly being intensified. At the same time, no one supports Russia,” not even its “closest and most dependent” neighbors. [25]

-War in Ukraine: Eastern Ukraine resembles Transdniestria but not really Abkhazia or South Osetia, Zubov suggests. Both places are ones in which “the soviet mentality dominates.” For Ukraine’s future, “it is very important that this mentality be overcome,” and that will require tact and care in dealing with the population of the east once Russian forces leave. Once Moscow pulls its forces out, Zubov argues, pro-Moscow groups “will not hold out two weeks. They understand that perfectly well, and therefore as soon as Russia leaves the Donbas, they will go with it, surrender or flee. The so-called LNR and DNR will cease their existence very quickly.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: And Russia will leave {Ukraine} because it does not want to suffer further sanctions and become a large North Korea. According to Zubov, “unofficial talks are going on about this now.” Their task is simple: how can Russia leave without losing face. “But apparently, it won’t be able to do so without losing face.” Thus, Ukraine will have to show great tact in dealing with the situation. Putin wasn’t prepared for all this because he had not prepared for war. Indeed, Zubov says, “no one seriously thought about war even in Soviet times, and when Khrushchev attempted to do something in Cuba in 1962, he was immediately removed. Everyone understands that nuclear war is impossible. Therefore Russia only uses this as a threat.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: How will Putin pull out? Zubov says that in his view, Putin launched his aggression in Ukraine for three reasons: to boost his popularity, to keep Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence, and to ensure that Russia’s military-industrial complex would not suffer given the importance of Ukrainian plants for its operation. But because he miscalculated, the Kremlin leader “has lost everything.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: Dead Russian soldiers a state secret. Last May President Putin officially declared military deaths in peacetime a state secret. His decision was seen as an attempt to cover up the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine war. Russian human-rights groups protested Putin’s decree. Last week, the Supreme Court upheld Putin’s decree, ruling against the complaint by a Russian civil society group claiming that the decree was illegal, that it was hiding the true information about Russia’s military involvement in eastern Ukraine.[33]

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Low energy/ oil prices; The Russian budget needed $85-$100 oil to break even, depending on which source you listen to. Now in Aug 2015 it’s in the mid $40s

-Low energy/oil prices: Russia is at the Mercy of Oil Markets. The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors (US fracking and LNG), and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

-Low energy/oil prices: Eleven of Russia’s 14 oil processing firms are now operating at a deficit; and consequently, “what we see today is just the quiet before a very strong storm.” [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Even if oil prices were to rise to 70 dollars a barrel, that would not be enough to prevent a further decline in the Russian economy. And given that the actual price will be much lower, that decline will be very steep indeed. As prices fall to 40 dollars a barrel, Zhukovsky says, Russia will discover “a third bottom” and then “a fourth” and so on. [20]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Lack of Diversification: It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia. Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development. (JYSkebank, The Economist) [21]

-Technology substitution: Russians need to recognize that the low oil prices are not the product of “a conspiracy of the US and the Arabs against Russia.” Instead, they are the result of an Arab effort to drive down the price so that the latest technological innovations in extraction technology the Americans have will not be profitable. Russia isn’t part of the equation for either, Zhukovsky says, but this also means, the basic trend won’t change anytime soon. Moreover, if Russia sits and does not make fundamental change, the new oil extraction technologies will in fact be “a death sentence” for the Russian economy. Russia’s only chance to “move forward” is to focus on scientific and technical progress, to behave as the Chinese have done gradually shifting into ever higher tech areas rather than relying on the sale of natural resources or minimally processed goods. But that is not what the Russian government is doing. [20]

-Economic speculation: Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. If he is even partially correct, Russia faces not a “black Monday” or a “black September” but a “black” and bleak future. […] Many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at firesale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s. These people, Zhukovsky says, “have their families, portfolios and property abroad. They are interested in having the situation in Russia be as bad as possible and the ruble to fall as far as possible so that they will be able to sell their apartments there and buy them here on the cheap.” In 1998, at the time of defaults, the Russian stock market fell 80 percent, the ruble fell 84 percent, “and all our bureaucrats … took the money they had and converted it into hard currency. “When the market collapsed, they bought shares at three cents on the dollar. The very same thing is happening now. Moreover, Zhukovsky adds, after the coming collapse “the American, European or Chinese investors will come.” They too will take advantage of the low prices just as they did in 1992 and 1998 [20]

-Independent Press shut down [7]

-Opposition hounded, jailed or murdered [7]

-Western food embargo; Putin orders that tons of western food be destroyed

-Western food embargo: Putin to ban four EU food exporters - Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro and Ukrainian food exports to Russia from Jan 1, 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty; The potential Ukraine ban is more significant, with food exports to Russia last year still worth $415 million, out of total exports of $11 billion, despite the conflict over Crimea and in east Ukraine. The Iceland ban is the biggest. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, the Nordic state exported $232 million of mostly seafood to Russia in 2014. Albania exported $10 million of fruit and dairy. Montenegro exported $40,000 of fruit and vegetables. Liechtenstein didn’t export any food. [19]

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 14 million that live in 319 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7] and [27]

-Growing Poverty levels: Falling or No government subsidies for 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others,

-Military Industrial complex decay**:“A couple of months ago, Vladimir Ryzhkov visited Mikhail Sokolov on air of Radio Svoboda and lamented the fact that Putin’s geopolitical adventures were destroying the Russian military-industrial complex, because a huge part of the supply of components, systems, engines, etc. in the Russian arsenal belonged to the Ukrainian companies. Now they do not cooperate with the Russian military-industrial complex, and the Russian military-industrial complex will be destroyed. In September 2014, in the first round of the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia, apart from other measures, it was banned to export a number of military goods. Now the government of Ukraine has approved an expanded package of sanctions. It is supposed that the sanctions list will include 156 legal entities and more than a thousand individuals, among whom will surely be many organizations and people from the Russian military-industrial complex. [7] and [24]

-Unsustainable Militarization & renewal stalling: Russia will not need its military-industrial complex for the next 20-30 years. Russia needs receivership and the Marshall Plan. This statement would be wrong, if the Constitution of the Russian Federation acted in Russia, and there was society in the sense of ‘nation’. But we have nothing, and will not have, as long as it appears with the help of receivership as it was in West Germany after 1945 and de-Nazification. The Russian military-industrial complex is doomed.The Russian military-industrial complex has international sanctions imposed against it, which have long hammered the final nail in its coffin by a simple forward contract. The latest weapons of the XXI century and the sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex are incompatible with each other. The program of upgrading the Russian army for the period up to 2020 is just the greatest scheme of stealing 20 trillion rubles in the history of Russia, and nothing more. By 2020, some will become very rich, a lot of people will become very poor, but there will be no Russian military-industrial complex, as there will be no XXI century weapons. When the ‘guns before butter’ choice is made, in the conditions of attacks on other countries and international sanctions, there will be no guns, no butter, no country,” Rabinovich wrote on his page on Facebook[7] and [24]

-Collapse of defence parts industry**Russia has no substitution for many critical Ukrainian military parts [7]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

- Alienation of Europe & the West; Russian Veto in the UN Security council over the MH17 tribunal

-Alienation of Europe & the West: Russia has outraged and alienated Europe and much of the Arab world. It is fitting that Russian analysts are calling for Moscow to defend its final stronghold in the Middle East. Thanks to the work of our agents of influence, Syria is set to become Russia’s Last Stand in the region. Even the short-term survival of the Assad regime only works to deepen the bitterness the Sunni majority feels toward Russia. Indeed, Russia’s identification with Shi’a forces—Iran, Assad, and Hizballah—ensures the wider alienation of Russia from the 90 percent of the world’s Muslims who are Sunni. As we’ve already seen in Libya, the inevitable collapse of Assad and other retrograde client states elsewhere will ultimately deprive Russia of the billions of dollars it invested there, and leave Moscow increasingly isolated and disliked internationally. [7]

- No Incentive to Change** : Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it. How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy. (TIME, Pew Research Center, Washington Post, Pew Research Center) [21]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Putin Alienating Kremlin Elites with His Nuclear Blackmail Threats Such a demonstration of “schizophrenia in the Kremlin,” one that is approaching “the clinical,” Borovoy argues, frightens those with the elite who still have a modicum of good sense because it signals that there is very little Moscow might do and that the actions of the foreign ministry are simply another part of the Kremlin’s “propaganda machine.” Those within the elite may be more likely to desert him over this than even over economic sanctions, Borovoy suggests, because everyone can now see that the Putin regime is behaving according to the following “inadequate” logic: “Because we do not like your reaction to the downing of the Boeing, we will no longer feel bound by the non-proliferation treaty and provide nuclear arms to those who want them.”

Such a declaration, the Russian opposition figure says, is “in violation of all international agreements.” Moreover, he argues, “the despair in which Putin finds himself suggests that such inadequate actions will be carried out.” That in turn will force the international community to conclude that one of its members “has gone mad.” [30]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way? [35]

-Sovereign Debt Default**: “International rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s warn that Russia might default in a massive way sometime in the next two or three years. They suggest that Russia’s regions won’t be able to pay their debts, and Moscow will have trouble covering them. Moreover, these experts note, the Russian economy is now in recession, an economic downturn deepened by international sanctions, a decline in the price of oil and the devaluation of the ruble which makes repaying any foreign debt all the more expensive. “From this,” Dokuchayev writes, “extends a direct path to sovereign default.” By the end of this year, Russian companies and banks must repay 134 billion US dollars in foreign obligations. That is no small sum, but it would seem bearable given that the country’s reserves are about 400 billion US dollars. But if Moscow has to cover other losses, seeks to support the ruble, and faces a new drop in oil prices, that may not be enough. Many of those suggesting that Russia is at risk of another default focus on the last factor and suggest that as Iran comes back on stream and the war in Libya ebbs, the supply of oil relative to demand will grow and prices will fall to 20 US dollars a barrel or even lower in the coming months. If that happens, the “Novyye izvestiya” writer says, a dollar will be equal to 120-130 rubles and a euro to “about 150.” That could lead Russia to default by itself.” [31]

-Sovereign Wealth Fund: **Russia has already been forced to dip into its huge Sovereign Wealth Fund, saved during the years of high oil prices. Anton Siluanov, the Finance Minister, has warned that if the budget deficit does not reduce, the entire fund could soon be used up. [32]

-Existential Threat to the USA: Pentagon chief: Russia is a 'very significant threat; 'Defense Secretary Ash Carter is calling Russia a "very, very significant threat," agreeing with an assessment made by top military officials. A chorus of top military and political officials (General Dunsford, Secretary of State John Kerry, his top Europe official, Victoria Nuland, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, and General Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander for NATO) have said recently that Russia is the top threat to the U.S.'s national security in comparison to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. [34]

UC Berkeley engineers, in collaboration with colleagues at Taiwan’s National Chiao Tung University, have expanded the range of 3D printing technology to include electrical components, successfully printing a wireless “smart cap” for a milk carton that detects signs of spoilage using embedded sensors.

120 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, Collapse and Implosion of the Russian Federation, a failed state just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzkotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb0864d6cf970d2015-08-17T11:26:47-04:002015-08-17T11:26:47-04:00In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently...SmartEconomy

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (B. Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites. The KGB was even on my back by writing nasty Soviet style yellow journalism smear postings against me , so I guess the article hit a nerve in the Kremlin. The KGB was logging into my blog site daily for about 6 months after that.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my third cut. Thank you to everyone who has suggested new data points that I missed.

There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Or a sovereign debt default? Watch for an August 2015 Surprise !!!!

120 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay and Collapse of the Russian Federation just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, drug use, chronic human disease, violence, poor diets and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: According to Russian health experts, 40 percent or more of the infant deaths in Russia are caused by social factors like alcoholism and drug use by parents or their failure to take their children to doctors or hospitals or to get required vaccinations. [26]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: The mortality among working-age Russians is rising. In 2014, for example, mortality rates among Russians aged 30 to 45 went up by 1.2 percent. [26]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia is aging and the birth rate is plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years. Consequently, even if each women were to have more children, the total number of births would fall. [6] and [26]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Unproductive workforce: Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

-Migration: It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.(Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post) [21]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes are now being accused of doping over the last decade.

-Corruption: Average Bribe in Russia Doubles in Rubles, Remains Steady in Dollars. The amount of the average bribe in Russia has nearly doubled this year, reaching 208,000 rubles ($3,485 at today's rate), as the country's currency has shed value amid Western sanctions and an economic downturn, according to Interior Ministry estimates cited by pro-government Izvestia daily on Friday. This compares to about 109,000 rubles Russians are believed to have been paying or receiving as an average bribe in 2014, though police concede that their estimates may not be completely accurate, the report said.The increase in bribe amounts is substantially less significant in their dollar equivalent, because the Russian ruble traded at around 35 to the dollar at the start of 2014, but has slumped to around 60 to the dollar as of this week. [28]

-Corruption: Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Culture of Kleptocracy: Russia’s appalling business reputation acts both as a brake on foreign investment and a stimulus to capital flight. [7]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or a spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US & Russia assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty --revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty-- revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion. [7]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-China Pivot off: The launch of China’s "New Silk Road" last month, bypassing Russian territory, was a serious blow to the Russian economic interests. The first Nomadexpress container train has already traveled on route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alat (Azerbaijan). From Azerbaijan, the express goes to Georgia, Turkey and the EU. Thus, a joint project of the Trans-Caspian international transport route and the New Silk Road became a reality. The main feature of the project is bypassing Russian territory. Another important caveat is the time. The route takes six days to cover, instead of 25-40 as before. Of course, China is challenging Russia as Eurasia’s largest Eurasian transit state. The New Silk Road has the potential to become more attractive than the obsolete Trans-Siberian Railway. Moreover, Kazakhstan's participation in the project almost completely eliminates the issue of its further foreign policy orientation – it has shifted from Moscow to Beijing. By the way, in this context, Ukraine also has a unique opportunity to expand its own transit opportunities thanks to Chinese shipments. [23]

-China Pivot Off: Gas cooperation between Russia and China is frozen. The gas contract between Russia’s Gazprom and China's CNPC on construction of a Power of Siberia pipeline, pompously presented earlier (signed in May 2014, its estimated total value was $400 billion), is frozen for an indefinite period. As it turned out, the idea of ​​reorientation of Russian gas exports from Europe to Asia, with China being a priority, has failed. The main reason is the reduction of gas consumption in China caused by the slowdown in the country’s economic growth, the development of gas production within its own territory (By 2020, China will have produced nearly 30 bcm of shale gas alone), focus on gas imports from Turkmenistan (China currently imports 30 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan, with the possibility of expanding imports to 60-70 bcm by 2020), as well as a gradual decrease in share of oil and gas energy in the country’s total energy balance within the framework of the latest global trends. Besides, the Chinese side did not agree to the price offered by Gazprom, which attempted to propose an equivalent to the European price. China has almost always pushed for the suitable price, which is significantly lower than that for other purchasers of the Russian gas. It is equally important that Bejing has provided no options of the financial assistance whatsoever for the construction of new gas pipelines on Russian territory, to the Chinese borders. Such stalemate allows forgetting the prospects of gas cooperation between the two countries. Besides, it is better for China to wait a full collapse of Putin's regime, so that, as member of anti-Russian coalition club, it could bite a piece of the “Siberian pie”, on far more favorable conditions of access to the those very oil and gas fields. It seems like China has flagrantly given Putin a “black mark” on a gas issue.[23]

-China Pivot Off; Bank transactions sour. With regard to financial cooperation between the two countries, there is growing evidence of Chinese banks' reluctance to carry out interbank transactions with their Russian partners. Chinese banks have also considerably reduced participation in foreign trade transactions with Russia. Cases of recent expansion of payments in rubles and yuan in certain Chinese border provinces can be explained by China’s will to extend the operating field for yuan, as Bejing has witnessed sharp reduction in the inflow of foreign currency to Russia, especially of the US dollar and euro. So, Putin should not expect any financial aid from China. There are currently no other donors due to severe Western sanctions, and they are not expected to emerge any time soon. [23]

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Land is yet another demonstrative issue in Russian-Chinese relations. More precisely, it is about Bejing’s rapidly growing appetite for the development of Russian territories. For example, a huge stir in Russia was caused by the plans of Trans-Baikal regional authorities to lease nearly 300,000 hectares of land to the Chinese company Huae Xinban for a 49-year term for less than $5 per hectare. Although this issue has not yet been fully resolved, the locals have already organized a protest movement. Most probably, the opinion of local activists will not be taken into account, and China will get the desired land by either paying more for the rent, or simply by financially stimulating Russian officials. No wonder the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev offers Russian youth to study Chinese, not just English.

-Chinese Land and Resource Grab: Another fact confirming the intention of China to get hold of as much Russian resources and territories as it possibly can until the final collapse of the present Russian Federation is the country’s broad interests in Russia’s Magadan region, the top region in silver mining and the fourth in gold extraction. Chinese Southwest mining company has decided to invest RUR 400 million this year in the development of deposits of antimony and silver. The company's plans cover the construction of roads in the region, mineral exploration, and mining of silver and other precious metals in the already known deposits. Earlier, the Kremlin did not allow China getting close to Russia’s main fields of natural resources across Siberia and the Far East. [23]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Evaporating Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Foreign investment is now below zero Foreign direct investment stopped coming to Russia at the beginning of 2014 according to Central Bank data . "Currently, there are direct and indirect bans on investing in Russia and our western partners now have doubts about some of Russia's large-scale projects," [7] and [22]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2017 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-War in Ukraine: Putin calculated that everyone would close their eyes to the annexation of Crimea. After an initial burst of euphoria, Crimea has turned out to be a burden rather than a victory; Ukrainians in the east have not supported Putin’s aggression, and “besides, the West is acting in a very monolithic and consolidated way by introducing serious sanctions which are constantly being intensified. At the same time, no one supports Russia,” not even its “closest and most dependent” neighbors. [25]

-War in Ukraine: Eastern Ukraine resembles Transdniestria but not really Abkhazia or South Osetia, Zubov suggests. Both places are ones in which “the soviet mentality dominates.” For Ukraine’s future, “it is very important that this mentality be overcome,” and that will require tact and care in dealing with the population of the east once Russian forces leave. Once Moscow pulls its forces out, Zubov argues, pro-Moscow groups “will not hold out two weeks. They understand that perfectly well, and therefore as soon as Russia leaves the Donbas, they will go with it, surrender or flee. The so-called LNR and DNR will cease their existence very quickly.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: And Russia will leave {Ukraine} because it does not want to suffer further sanctions and become a large North Korea. According to Zubov, “unofficial talks are going on about this now.” Their task is simple: how can Russia leave without losing face. “But apparently, it won’t be able to do so without losing face.” Thus, Ukraine will have to show great tact in dealing with the situation. Putin wasn’t prepared for all this because he had not prepared for war. Indeed, Zubov says, “no one seriously thought about war even in Soviet times, and when Khrushchev attempted to do something in Cuba in 1962, he was immediately removed. Everyone understands that nuclear war is impossible. Therefore Russia only uses this as a threat.” [25]

-War in Ukraine: How will Putin pull out? Zubov says that in his view, Putin launched his aggression in Ukraine for three reasons: to boost his popularity, to keep Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence, and to ensure that Russia’s military-industrial complex would not suffer given the importance of Ukrainian plants for its operation. But because he miscalculated, the Kremlin leader “has lost everything.” [25]

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Low energy/ oil prices; The Russian budget needed $85-$100 oil to break even, depending on which source you listen to. Now in Aug 2015 it’s in the mid $40s

-Low energy/oil prices: Russia is at the Mercy of Oil Markets. The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors (US fracking and LNG), and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

-Low energy/oil prices: Eleven of Russia’s 14 oil processing firms are now operating at a deficit; and consequently, “what we see today is just the quiet before a very strong storm.” [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Even if oil prices were to rise to 70 dollars a barrel, that would not be enough to prevent a further decline in the Russian economy. And given that the actual price will be much lower, that decline will be very steep indeed. As prices fall to 40 dollars a barrel, Zhukovsky says, Russia will discover “a third bottom” and then “a fourth” and so on. [20]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Lack of Diversification: It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia. Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development. (JYSkebank, The Economist) [21]

-Technology substitution: Russians need to recognize that the low oil prices are not the product of “a conspiracy of the US and the Arabs against Russia.” Instead, they are the result of an Arab effort to drive down the price so that the latest technological innovations in extraction technology the Americans have will not be profitable. Russia isn’t part of the equation for either, Zhukovsky says, but this also means, the basic trend won’t change anytime soon. Moreover, if Russia sits and does not make fundamental change, the new oil extraction technologies will in fact be “a death sentence” for the Russian economy. Russia’s only chance to “move forward” is to focus on scientific and technical progress, to behave as the Chinese have done gradually shifting into ever higher tech areas rather than relying on the sale of natural resources or minimally processed goods. But that is not what the Russian government is doing. [20]

-Economic speculation: Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. If he is even partially correct, Russia faces not a “black Monday” or a “black September” but a “black” and bleak future. […] Many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at firesale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s. These people, Zhukovsky says, “have their families, portfolios and property abroad. They are interested in having the situation in Russia be as bad as possible and the ruble to fall as far as possible so that they will be able to sell their apartments there and buy them here on the cheap.” In 1998, at the time of defaults, the Russian stock market fell 80 percent, the ruble fell 84 percent, “and all our bureaucrats … took the money they had and converted it into hard currency. “When the market collapsed, they bought shares at three cents on the dollar. The very same thing is happening now. Moreover, Zhukovsky adds, after the coming collapse “the American, European or Chinese investors will come.” They too will take advantage of the low prices just as they did in 1992 and 1998 [20]

-Independent Press shut down [7]

-Opposition hounded, jailed or murdered [7]

-Western food embargo; Putin orders that tons of western food be destroyed

-Western food embargo: Putin to ban four EU food exporters - Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro and Ukrainian food exports to Russia from Jan 1, 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty; The potential Ukraine ban is more significant, with food exports to Russia last year still worth $415 million, out of total exports of $11 billion, despite the conflict over Crimea and in east Ukraine. The Iceland ban is the biggest. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, the Nordic state exported $232 million of mostly seafood to Russia in 2014. Albania exported $10 million of fruit and dairy. Montenegro exported $40,000 of fruit and vegetables. Liechtenstein didn’t export any food. [19]

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 14 million that live in 319 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7] and [27]

-Growing Poverty levels: Falling or No government subsidies for 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 319 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7] and [27]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others,

-Military Industrial complex decay**:“A couple of months ago, Vladimir Ryzhkov visited Mikhail Sokolov on air of Radio Svoboda and lamented the fact that Putin’s geopolitical adventures were destroying the Russian military-industrial complex, because a huge part of the supply of components, systems, engines, etc. in the Russian arsenal belonged to the Ukrainian companies. Now they do not cooperate with the Russian military-industrial complex, and the Russian military-industrial complex will be destroyed. In September 2014, in the first round of the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia, apart from other measures, it was banned to export a number of military goods. Now the government of Ukraine has approved an expanded package of sanctions. It is supposed that the sanctions list will include 156 legal entities and more than a thousand individuals, among whom will surely be many organizations and people from the Russian military-industrial complex. [7] and [24]

-Unsustainable Militarization & renewal stalling: Russia will not need its military-industrial complex for the next 20-30 years. Russia needs receivership and the Marshall Plan. This statement would be wrong, if the Constitution of the Russian Federation acted in Russia, and there was society in the sense of ‘nation’. But we have nothing, and will not have, as long as it appears with the help of receivership as it was in West Germany after 1945 and de-Nazification. The Russian military-industrial complex is doomed.The Russian military-industrial complex has international sanctions imposed against it, which have long hammered the final nail in its coffin by a simple forward contract. The latest weapons of the XXI century and the sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex are incompatible with each other. The program of upgrading the Russian army for the period up to 2020 is just the greatest scheme of stealing 20 trillion rubles in the history of Russia, and nothing more. By 2020, some will become very rich, a lot of people will become very poor, but there will be no Russian military-industrial complex, as there will be no XXI century weapons. When the ‘guns before butter’ choice is made, in the conditions of attacks on other countries and international sanctions, there will be no guns, no butter, no country,” Rabinovich wrote on his page on Facebook[7] and [24]

-Collapse of defence parts industry**Russia has no substitution for many critical Ukrainian military parts [7]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

- Alienation of Europe & the West; Russian Veto in the UN Security council over the MH17 tribunal

-Alienation of Europe & the West: Russia has outraged and alienated Europe and much of the Arab world. It is fitting that Russian analysts are calling for Moscow to defend its final stronghold in the Middle East. Thanks to the work of our agents of influence, Syria is set to become Russia’s Last Stand in the region. Even the short-term survival of the Assad regime only works to deepen the bitterness the Sunni majority feels toward Russia. Indeed, Russia’s identification with Shi’a forces—Iran, Assad, and Hizballah—ensures the wider alienation of Russia from the 90 percent of the world’s Muslims who are Sunni. As we’ve already seen in Libya, the inevitable collapse of Assad and other retrograde client states elsewhere will ultimately deprive Russia of the billions of dollars it invested there, and leave Moscow increasingly isolated and disliked internationally. [7]

- No Incentive to Change** : Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it. How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy. (TIME, Pew Research Center, Washington Post, Pew Research Center) [21]

-Kremlin Revolt**: Putin Alienating Kremlin Elites with His Nuclear Blackmail Threats Such a demonstration of “schizophrenia in the Kremlin,” one that is approaching “the clinical,” Borovoy argues, frightens those with the elite who still have a modicum of good sense because it signals that there is very little Moscow might do and that the actions of the foreign ministry are simply another part of the Kremlin’s “propaganda machine.” Those within the elite may be more likely to desert him over this than even over economic sanctions, Borovoy suggests, because everyone can now see that the Putin regime is behaving according to the following “inadequate” logic: “Because we do not like your reaction to the downing of the Boeing, we will no longer feel bound by the non-proliferation treaty and provide nuclear arms to those who want them.”

Such a declaration, the Russian opposition figure says, is “in violation of all international agreements.” Moreover, he argues, “the despair in which Putin finds himself suggests that such inadequate actions will be carried out.” That in turn will force the international community to conclude that one of its members “has gone mad.” [30]

-Sovereign Debt Default**: “International rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s warn that Russia might default in a massive way sometime in the next two or three years. They suggest that Russia’s regions won’t be able to pay their debts, and Moscow will have trouble covering them. Moreover, these experts note, the Russian economy is now in recession, an economic downturn deepened by international sanctions, a decline in the price of oil and the devaluation of the ruble which makes repaying any foreign debt all the more expensive. “From this,” Dokuchayev writes, “extends a direct path to sovereign default.” By the end of this year, Russian companies and banks must repay 134 billion US dollars in foreign obligations. That is no small sum, but it would seem bearable given that the country’s reserves are about 400 billion US dollars. But if Moscow has to cover other losses, seeks to support the ruble, and faces a new drop in oil prices, that may not be enough. Many of those suggesting that Russia is at risk of another default focus on the last factor and suggest that as Iran comes back on stream and the war in Libya ebbs, the supply of oil relative to demand will grow and prices will fall to 20 US dollars a barrel or even lower in the coming months. If that happens, the “Novyye izvestiya” writer says, a dollar will be equal to 120-130 rubles and a euro to “about 150.” That could lead Russia to default by itself.” [31]

[31] Seventeen Years On, ‘Shadow of Default’ Still Hangs over Russia http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2015/08/seventeen-years-on-shadow-of-default.html

102 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, Collapse and Implosion of the Russian Federation-a failed state, just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzkotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb086438e1970d2015-08-15T20:20:07-04:002015-08-15T20:26:56-04:00UPDATE from Thursday . 92 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, and Collapse of the Russian Federation, just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue...SmartEconomy

UPDATE from Thursday .

92 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, and Collapse of the Russian Federation, just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (B. Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites. The KGB was even on my back by writing nasty Soviet style yellow journalism smear postings against me , so I guess the article hit a nerve in the Kremlin. The KGB was logging into my blog site daily for about 6 months after that.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my second cut. Thank you to everyone who has suggested new data points that I missed.

There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Watch for an August Surprise !!!!

102 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay and Collapse of the Russian Federation just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia was aging and the birth rate was plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years.[6]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Unproductive workforce: Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

-Migration: It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.(Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post) [21]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes are now being accused of doping over the last decade.

-Corruption: Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion.

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2017 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Low energy/ oil prices; The Russian budget needed $85-$100 oil to break even, depending on which source you listen to. Now in Aug 2015 it’s in the mid $40s

-Low energy/oil process: Russia is at the Mercy of Oil Markets. The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors (US fracking and LNG), and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

-Low energy/oil prices: Eleven of Russia’s 14 oil processing firms are now operating at a deficit; and consequently, “what we see today is just the quiet before a very strong storm.” [20]

-Low energy/oil prices: Even if oil prices were to rise to 70 dollars a barrel, that would not be enough to prevent a further decline in the Russian economy. And given that the actual price will be much lower, that decline will be very steep indeed. As prices fall to 40 dollars a barrel, Zhukovsky says, Russia will discover “a third bottom” and then “a fourth” and so on. [20]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Lack of Diversification: It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia. Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development. (JYSkebank, The Economist) [21]

-Technology substitution: Russians need to recognize that the low oil prices are not the product of “a conspiracy of the US and the Arabs against Russia.” Instead, they are the result of an Arab effort to drive down the price so that the latest technological innovations in extraction technology the Americans have will not be profitable. Russia isn’t part of the equation for either, Zhukovsky says, but this also means, the basic trend won’t change anytime soon. Moreover, if Russia sits and does not make fundamental change, the new oil extraction technologies will in fact be “a death sentence” for the Russian economy. Russia’s only chance to “move forward” is to focus on scientific and technical progress, to behave as the Chinese have done gradually shifting into ever higher tech areas rather than relying on the sale of natural resources or minimally processed goods. But that is not what the Russian government is doing. [20]

-Economic speculation: Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. If he is even partially correct, Russia faces not a “black Monday” or a “black September” but a “black” and bleak future. […] Many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at firesale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s. These people, Zhukovsky says, “have their families, portfolios and property abroad. They are interested in having the situation in Russia be as bad as possible and the ruble to fall as far as possible so that they will be able to sell their apartments there and buy them here on the cheap.” In 1998, at the time of defaults, the Russian stock market fell 80 percent, the ruble fell 84 percent, “and all our bureaucrats … took the money they had and converted it into hard currency. “When the market collapsed, they bought shares at three cents on the dollar. The very same thing is happening now. Moreover, Zhukovsky adds, after the coming collapse “the American, European or Chinese investors will come.” They too will take advantage of the low prices just as they did in 1992 and 1998 [20]

-Independent Press shut down [7]

-Opposition hounded, jailed or murdered [7]

-Western food embargo; Putin orders that tons of western food be destroyed

-Western food embargo: Putin to ban four EU food exporters - Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro and Ukrainian food exports to Russia from Jan 1, 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty; The potential Ukraine ban is more significant, with food exports to Russia last year still worth $415 million, out of total exports of $11 billion, despite the conflict over Crimea and in east Ukraine. The Iceland ban is the biggest. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, the Nordic state exported $232 million of mostly seafood to Russia in 2014. Albania exported $10 million of fruit and dairy. Montenegro exported $40,000 of fruit and vegetables. Liechtenstein didn’t export any food. [19]

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 19 million that live in 191 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7]

-Growing Poverty levels: Falling or No government subsidies for 191 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 191 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others,

-Military Industrial complex decay [7]

-Militarization renewal stalling [7]

-Collapse of defence parts industry [7]

-Aging defence industry workforce [7]

-Inexperienced defence industry workforce [7]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

- No Incentive to Change** : Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it. How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy. (TIME, Pew Research Center, Washington Post, Pew Research Center) [21]

92 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay, and Collapse of the Russian Federation, just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzkotag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b7c7beac20970b2015-08-13T13:07:11-04:002015-08-13T20:21:48-04:00In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently...SmartEconomy

In Feb 2011, I wrote a tongue and cheek blog posting called Forty One (41) early warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism) and Ukraine (Yanukowych Regime) http://bit.ly/fsflvg. It caused quite a stir and coincidently it was translated by the Russian opposition (B. Nemtsov) into Russian and reposted to dozens of Russian blog sites. The KGB was even on my back by writing nasty Soviet style yellow journalism smear postings against me , so I guess the article hit a nerve in the Kremlin. The KGB was logging into my blog site daily for about 6 months after that.

Well, the Yanukowych regime did collapse, the PUTIN is still (barely) hanging on.

So I think it's time to update my Early Warning Signals blog post with new data points.—Walter Derzko

Here is my first cut. There are likely many more early warning signals, but who knows which ones will trigger the collapse of Putin or the RF? Maybe an oligarch/elite/ inner circle revolt or palace coup? Watch for an August Surprise !!!!

92 Early Warning Signals that point to the Isolation, Decay and Collapse of the Russian Federation just like we saw before the collapse of the USSR by Walter Derzko

-Life Expectancy: The overall life expectancy at birth in Russia was slightly lower in 2009 (the latest year for which figures are available) than in 1961, almost half a century earlier. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy at age 15 for all Russian adults was more than two years below its level in 1959; [1]

-Life Expectancy: According to the U.N.’s World Health Organization, the life expectancy for a 15-year-old boy in Haiti is three years higher than for a Russian boy the same age. [2]

-Life Expectancy: The life expectancy for young men sank by almost four years over those two generations. [1]

-Life Expectancy: The country’s death rate far exceeded its birth rate: in 2000, life expectancy for men was only 58, and for women 71. [2]

-Life Expectancy: Despite a recent slight uptick in births versus deaths, life expectancy now stands at 64 for males and 76 for women (137th and 100th in the world, respectively, hardly fitting for a supper power)[2]

-Mortality: The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol consumption and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. [6]

-Mortality: Death rates from cardiovascular disease are more than three times as high in Russia as in western Europe [1]

-Mortality: Russian death rates from injury and violence have soared, on par with those in African post-conflict societies, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. [1]

-Mortality: Put another way, post-Soviet Russia has suffered a cumulative "excess mortality" of more than seven million deaths, meaning that if the country could have simply held on to its Gorbachev-era survival rates over the last two decades, seven million deaths could have been averted. This figure is more than three times the death toll World War I inflicted on imperial Russia. [1]

-Mortality: Two out of three Russian men who died, died drunk [2]

-Mortality: Twenty-five percent of Russian men still die before the age of 55, many from alcoholism and the violent deaths, plus other diseases it fosters. [2]

-Population Decline: Since 1992, according to official Russian figures, Russia's population has fallen nearly every year (1993 and 2010 are the exceptions, with the latter experiencing an increase of just 10,000 people). According to these figures, between 1993 and 2010, Russia's population shrank from 148.6 million to 141.9 million people, a drop of nearly five percent. [1]

-Depopulation: Predictions are that Russia, with a population of 146 million, could become a nation of fewer than 100 million people by 2025, and hardly a superpower [2]

-Depopulation: Russia was aging and the birth rate was plummeting. Putin himself in his first State of the Nation address in July 2000 warned the Russian people, “We are in danger of becoming a senile nation.” [2]

-Fertility: Fertility rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7 births per women. That rate is still about 20 percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population replacement. [6]

-Fertility: A drop in fertility by 50 percent between 1987 and 1999 has resulted in a reduced number of women now at childbearing age, which is beginning to affect the country in a major way: Two thirds of all births in Russia take place among women between the ages of 20 and 29, and this population will decline from 13 million currently to 7 or 8 million in the coming years.[6]

-Fertility: Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce.[6]

-Fertility: Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world. [6]

-Fertility: The protection of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among minors. [6]

-Fertility: The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: Russia’s working-age population is declining by a million people a year, a faster rate than the decline of the overall population, which in 2013 stood at around 143 million, 3 million less than when Putin took office [2]

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Over the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent.

-Working Age Population/Labour Force: Other countries with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of immigration. [6]

-Working Age Population/ Labour Force: the average age of a worker in the defence industry in close to retirement age and the army is forced to provide untrained conscripts to work in defence factories, resulting in quality problems and defects, exploding rockets and planes /jets falling from the sky. [7]

-Aging Population: Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent. [6]

-Aging Population: The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96 countries.]6]

-Health: Only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy [2]

-Health: Many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” or sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health. [2]

-Health: The syphilis rate among girls 10 to 14—a statistical category that boggles the mind—had gone up 40 times the previous decade. [2]

-Health: One study showed that , 64% of the pregnant women infected with syphilis delivered an infant with presumptive or confirmed congenital syphilis [3]

-Health: Only 30 percent of boys between the ages of 15 and 17 were considered healthy [2]

-Health: Chronic teen alcoholism; 77 percent of teens between the ages of 15 and 17 drink vodka regularly; in rural areas, the percentage can be as high as 90. [2]

-Health: Chronic heroin epidemic; Cheap heroin from Afghanistan is rolling in. Russia has more heroin addicts than any other country [2]

-Health: An H.I.V. epidemic spread by dirty needles was taking hold. Between 2000 and 2012 the number of new cases of H.I.V. increased six fold. About 700,000 Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. [2] and [6]

-Health: Chronic TB epidemic. Many of those infected with H.I.V. also suffer from tuberculosis. Russia is second only to India (with 1.3 billion people) in the number of cases of M.D.R. (multidrug-resistant) tuberculosis [2]

-Health: When it comes to the environment, 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable.

-Health: Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.

-Health: Russia won the most medals—33—in the recent Sochi Winter Olympics, but many of these athletes are now being accused of doping over the last decade.

-Corruption: Reverse Money Laundering: In Russia, corruption has gotten so bad that the logic of money laundering has turned upside down. Many companies face the opposite problem: In order to get things done, they need to take clean money and make it dirty. Russia has a service known as "obnal," or dark money: the process by which legitimate companies take legitimate profits and launder them into off-the-books slush funds to be used for bribes and tax evasion. Obnal has become a billion-dollar business in Russia [4]

-Lawlessness: police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.[7]

-Overregulation: Russia’s centralized economy requires that citizens get a “document” or spravka from government workers , who demand bribes for timely executions

-Weakened military/ security control at the periphery of the empire. Already facing food shortages and other issues with the countersanctions, Stratfor believes Moscow is “stepping up its security apparatuses within the regions, stepping up its control within the governors and within the mayors.” Stratfor believes Putin is trying to prove that he can “isolate Russia from the West, from Western foods, and keep Russia Russian.” But using the people to demonstrate his power and sustainability, is risking the social contract Putin made with the Russian: “You will always receive your paychecks; I will keep the economy growing; I will quadruple–pretty much-standard of living; you will have Western-style foods and goods inside of Russia.” Putin’s popularity was sky-high for the last 15 years, because he delivered on his promise to the Russian people of strong leadership. But now Putin must chose to battle the West or give in to the needs of the people. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery: Russia is in civilizational decline, new nations emerge-Siberians see themselves as separate nation from Russia http://bit.ly/lSzxZm

-Conflicts on the periphery: 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN. Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse. 16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion.

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Siberia/China flashpoint. In 2000, 28 million Russians lived in Siberia and the Far East. In 2010, only 25.4 million live there. On the other side of the border, Chinese growth and interest in Russian resources could make the Far East a flashpoint. A 2001 Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighborliness, codifying territorial compromises and designed to diminish American influence, formally "sunsets" in 2021—at which time, China may decide to claim some of Russia's resource-rich territories that may well be largely deserted. [18]

-Conflicts on the periphery: The Russian economy shrank by 4.6 percent in the quarter ending June 2015. Although the media has focused on the stability in Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, the economic decline in Russian provinces has been much more serious. Debt in Russia’s 83 regions has risen by 100 to 150 percent since 2010. Russia’s economic minister suggested that possibly 60 of those 83 regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have $541 billion in reserves, but intervention to bailout the regions would drain much of Russia’s wealth, which is spread throughout its currency reserves, the National Wealth Fund and the National Reserve Fund. Stratfor predicts that the Kremlin will allow the economies of many of the country’s Soviet-era mono-cities, which rely on a single industry, to continue to deteriorate. As a relic of the Soviet period, the mono-cities employ the bulk of their populations in a single industry such as manufacturing, metallurgy, timber or energy. These mono-cities generate about 30 percent of the country’s industrial production. With only a single skill, workers in mono-cities generally cannot migrate to find better jobs or salaries. [15]

-Conflicts on the periphery**: Revolts and protests. Stratfor expects that protests against the Kremlin will increase as more Russians fall under the poverty line, and regional and municipal debt grows. They expect the Kremlin to retaliate by cracking down on protest movements and opposition parties to block the formation of any broad and serious any serious challenge to their hold on power. They believe that Russia can hang on with its current strategy for the next couple of years, but Putin’s popularity will soon fade. Eventually, regions could revolt in a similar process that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when 15 nations comprising a third of the population and a quarter of the Soviet Union declared independence. [15]

-Capital Outflow: The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Central Bank. The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of 2015. In reporting first quarter numbers, the Central Bank also upwardly revised the 2014 figure for net capital outflow to $154.1 billion from the previously reported $151.5 billion. That figure marks the highest annual total of capital flight since the Central Bank started tracking the trend back in 1994. [5]

-Growing prolonged recession: Russian won’t likely come out of the recession until 2017 if that. [7]

-Budget Deficit: Russia’s central government has cut its budget by 10 percent across the board in 2015, except for defense. As a result, social programs have been slashed, and even funding to host the World Cup 2018 has been severely restrained. [15]

-Plummeting Rouble: The Rouble has lost over 50% of its value against the $USD in 2015 [7]

-Plummeting Rouble: As Rouble Collapses, Russia’s Cossacks Issue Their Own Currency – with Putin’s Picture on It [12]

-War in Ukraine: Moscow has spent an estimated 53 billion rubles ($835 million) as of May 2015 to support and finance the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine (UNIAN, May 12).

-Uncontrolled inflation: Russia’s inflation rate hit 16.9 percent in the first half of 2015, cutting wage values by 14 percent over the last 12 months. [15]

-Surplus of energy on the world markets; the real essence of Putin's energy woes are structural, not cyclical. The global energy game is changing — and it is not changing in Moscow's favor.

Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables — three areas where Russia is extremely weak — are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. [8]

-Energy-dependent, undiversified economy: If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia's fortunes, one statistic says it all: in 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion. [8]

-Independent Press shut down [7]

-Opposition hounded, jailed or murdered [7]

-Western food embargo; Putin orders that tons of western food be destroyed

-Jokes, satire and anecdotes about Putin and the regime: "If you see smoke and smell burning rubber, don't rush to call the fire department. It's probably the smell of your neighbors using Russian contraceptives" ))) [16]

-Growing poverty levels: Caught up in the worst economic decline since the 1998 ruble crisis, Russia’s national poverty rate increased by 14 percent in the first half of this year. So far, Russia has been unwilling to increase the minimum wage or social benefits to fight poverty. [15]

-Growing poverty levels: As of Aug 2015, 23 million Russians live below the poverty level and another 19 million that live in 191 single industry cities and towns can be soon be added to the poverty rolls since the Russian government can’t afford to pay subsidies [7]

-Growing Poverty levels: Falling or No government subsidies for 191 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7]

-Subsidy Drag: There are 191 single industry towns who have lost their single industrial base [7]

-Subsidy Drag: Only three former USSR territories have economies that could make a contribution to the Russian Federation or the Eurasian Union: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The rest are an economic drag-the economically badly off countries of the CIS – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova and others,

-Military Industrial complex decay [7]

-Militarization renewal stalling [7]

-Collapse of defence parts industry [7]

-Aging defence industry workforce [7]

-Inexperienced defence industry workforce [7]

-Educational Decay: According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, the proportion of Russia's adult population with postsecondary training or degrees is higher than in almost any OECD country. And in the Soviet era, Russian scientists and inventors were renowned for their acumen (albeit mainly in fields with military applications). But today, Russia's educational system appears to be broken, or at least the country seems unable to derive the expected benefits from it [1]

-Educational Decay: Standardized international test results reveal that Russian primary and secondary schooling today is at best mediocre. In a 2009 OECD test to measure scholastic performance, Russian students' reading scores were lower than Turkish students', and Turkey itself is near the bottom of the OECD rankings. Russia's university and higher education system looks even worse. [1]

-Innovation: Although Russia today accounts for about six percent of the world's population with a postsecondary education, barely 0.1 percent of the worldwide patents granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office over the last decade and a half were awarded to Russians. This is not some U.S. conspiracy against Russian inventors: the records of the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization show that Russia's share of out-of-country patent applications over that same period was less than 0.2 percent of the global total. [1]

-Innovation: The picture is hardly better when it comes to the output of scientific papers: the number of articles by Russians in peer-reviewed journals was no higher in 2008 than it had been in 1990, whereas output almost everywhere else in the world rose over those same years. By 2008, Russian authors were publishing far fewer scientific papers than the authors of Russia's BRIC peers: Brazil, China, and India. In effect, Russia stands as a new and disturbing wonder in today's globalized world: a society characterized by high levels of schooling but low levels of health, knowledge, and education. [1]

[18] Implosion The End of Russia and What it Means for America by Ilan Berman 2013

Next Sanctions? Target Russian Vulnerabilitiestag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb085e9b4b970d2015-08-05T16:02:12-04:002015-08-05T16:05:51-04:00Time for a New Strategy in Russia; The Current Sanctions Regime Has Failed—Here's What to Do Next? Mark Galeotti I say Let’s target Russian Vulnerabilities. Let’s raise the pain thresh-hold. —Let’s make a list. Right off the bat, I can...SmartEconomy

Time for a New Strategy in Russia; The Current Sanctions Regime Has Failed—Here's What to Do Next? Mark Galeotti

I say Let’s target Russian Vulnerabilities. Let’s raise the pain thresh-hold. —Let’s make a list. Right off the bat, I can think of about a dozen or more for starters--Walter D

THE WEST MUST BE HARDNOSED All of this can be done in a progressive proactive manner with deadlines for Russian with drawing from Ukraine and not in response to any of Putin's action.

KEY QUOTE: TOUGH LOVE: Given that Moscow seems to have a penchant for heavy-handed geopolitical games, perhaps the best tactic is to concentrate on its vulnerabilities. Above all, Russia is dependent on Western capital and financial systems, and Russia’s elites are globalized and eager to enjoy the security, facilities, and lifestyle of the West.Although the Kremlin appears willing to let ordinary Russians pay the price of sanctions, it is hard to believe that the Russian elite will bear such burdens willingly. The first round of sanctions targeted not whole sectors of the Russian economy but key individuals responsible for the annexation of Crimea and incursion into Ukraine, blocking their ability to travel abroad and freezing their assets. Many more names could be added to the lists—every parliamentarian who voted for the annexation of Crimea, for example—and the sanctions could be made broader and more draconian, complemented by a more aggressive push to punish gangsters and kleptocrats. Adding the names of spouses and children to the lists poses legal challenges, of course, but would also end an obvious loophole, as potential targets of sanctions often transfer assets to relatives.

Time for a New Strategy in Russia The Current Sanctions Regime Has Failed—Here's What to Do Next? Mark Galeotti

Time for a New Strategy in Russia The Current Sanctions Regime Has Failed—Here's What to Do Next? Mark Galeotti

16 signs of Russian Collapsetag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb0856cc7a970d2015-07-22T23:02:45-04:002015-07-22T23:02:45-04:00Thinking like Zbigniew Brzezinski ? 16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and...SmartEconomy

Thinking like Zbigniew Brzezinski ?

16 Russian Hot spots/ tension zones or fronts against PUTIN

Putin may someday have to fragment his army (which is understaffed, undertrained and is facing increasing desertions) to all regions of the Russian Federation and beyond to quell growing tensions and hot spots that, if erupted simultaneously or with some help, could splinter his defenses and threaten the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and lead to regime collapse.

...

16 fronts /hot spots against PUTIN: 1) Crimean Tartars and all Crimeans in general, 2) Eastern Ukraine, 3) Chechnya, 4) Chinese in Siberia, 5) Japanese territorial island disputes 6) Canada & US assert control in the Arctic 7) Cossacks Seek Greater Role in Southern Russia’s Economic and Political Life 8) Georgia 9) European front-The Dutch and MH17, Baltics and Poland 10) Karelia will seek to rejoin Finland 11) Moldova/Transdneistria 12) Ethnic tensions brewing with Circassian activists in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Caucasus 13) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in Moscow 14) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in St Petersburg 15) Russians in poverty revolt/protest in the rural oblasts of the Russian Federation and 16) NATO and the US fleet re-enter the Black Sea --It's not a matter of if but only a matter of when and if it happens in a coordinated fashion.

Comments welcomed--Walter Derzko..

Recall Strafor Forecasts for 2015-2025 for Russia from February 2015

Collapse of Russia will prove major test for US – Stratfor

Published time: 24 Feb, 2015 22:21

American think-tank Stratfor has issued a new 'Decade Forecast,' which says the EU will decay, China will end up in "a communist dictatorship," and Russia will disintegrate...though it hasn't done so yet, despite such predictions taking place in the past.

“It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form,” the forecast’s chapter dedicated to Russia begins. The research maintains that Moscow’s “failure to transform energy revenues into self-sustaining economy” will eventually lead to a “repeat of the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s,” with the process accompanied by a demographic decline that is set to “really hit” Russia.

However, the forecaster's founder and CEO, George Friedman, recently said that Russia has the ability to emerge from US-led sanctions and the recent drop in the ruble due to falling oil prices. "Russians' strength is that they can endure things that would break other nations," Friedman said, suggesting that the country "has military and political power that could begin to impinge on Europe."

According to the forecast, Russia’s territorial losses will not be limited to the European part of the country. Its control over the North Caucasus is also predicted to “evaporate,” while maritime regions in Russia’s Far East will “move independently” to the countries they are “closely linked to” – namely China, Japan, and the US. Additionally, Karelia will “seek to rejoin” Finland. The US think-tank, sometimes referred to as a “shadow CIA” due to its employment of former CIA analysts, also warns that this time Russia's alleged tendency of solving problems with "secret police" won't work, and the Federal Security Service will be unable to rescue the country.

The collapse of Russia “will be a major test for the United States,” the research warns, concluding that “Washington is the only power able to address the issue.” However, the research leaves room for possible incidents and some nuclear missiles being “fired in the process.”

Whatever it will take to seize control of Russia’s nuclear forces, inventing a military solution to the problem or imposing a “stable and economically viable government,” this issue will have to be addressed, the research claims, “likely in the next decade.”

'EU has fragmented, will decay'

According to the report, it's not only Russia that will fall to pieces. Stratfor’s researchers believe that “inter-European relations will be increasingly unpredictable and unstable” due to major political tendency of moving “away from multinational solutions to a greater nationalism.”

“No single policy can suit all of Europe,” Stratfor says, explaining that Europe has already fragmented into at least two parts. “What benefits one part of Europe, harms another.” The European Union "might survive in some sense," but its members relations will be "not binding" and "governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships.”

'China will end up in dictatorship'

Just like Japan and the “Asian tigers” Taiwan and South Korea, China “has completed its cycle as a high-growth, low-wage country and has entered a new phase,” Stratfor says. This phase will be characterized by an “expansions climax,” or slowdown.

China is following a “hybrid path” of its own by centralizing political and economic powers, ensuring the Communist Party’s control over the military, and consolidating the nation’s fragmented industries. According to Stratfor, this will result in the construction of a communist dictatorship.

Elsewhere, there will be further defragmentation and conflicts spreading through the Middle East and North Africa.

The latest “Decade Forecast” is the fifth published by Stratfor in the last two decades, following reports in 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010.

'World will remain a dangerous place'

The geopolitical intelligence firm provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. Publishing their 'Decade Forecast' every five years, Stratfor has repeatedly tried to predict various paths that international governments and political leaders may take. Although the company claims its forecasts are "about predicting the unexpected," quite often they tend to depict its vision of the world's future in broad terms.

"As in the period prior to World War I, prosperity and instability will go hand in hand," Stratfor said in its forecast for 1995-2005. Having predicted that the decade would be "a period of increasing disharmony both between nations and within nations," with China expected to suffer "growing instability, including the strong possibility of fragmentation and civil war," it has only been the US that has been envisioned by the think-tank as "the world's only superpower - the only power able to project its forces globally."

In the 2005-2015 report, the US was predicted to militarily "maintain control of the seas as well as of space, ensuring strategic global domination." At the same time, Stratfor expected its country to "disengage from Iraq – and also from the rest of the Islamic world." However, Stratfor has said the previous report "suffered a deep flaw when failed to forecast the US-jihadist war and, in fact, miscalculated on the Middle East as a whole."

Regarding Russia, already in the 2005 published report it "has been collapsing slowly but surely."

"The elite holding on to Russia's capital and center while the rest of the country crumbles," was expected to "result in the delegitimization of the Russian state and hence disintegration,” it said. "An attempt by Washington to replace Putin with a more accommodating Russian president" should have happened by 2015, according to Stratfor.

"The turning point could come soon, or it could be years away," the previous forecast said.

Oxidative stress and Cancer Metastasistag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b7c7842939970b2015-05-03T17:03:10-04:002015-05-03T17:03:10-04:00Oxidative stress and Cancer Metastasis Research has shown that 90% of all cancer deaths are due to cancer metastasis. Cancer can only spread in the body when we have an environment of excess free radicals or oxidative stress. An ultra-high,...SmartEconomy

Oxidative stress and Cancer Metastasis

Research has shown that 90% of all cancer deaths are due to cancer metastasis. Cancer can only spread in the body when we have an environment of excess free radicals or oxidative stress. An ultra-high, universal, antioxidant like Carbon 60 hydrated fullerenes neutralize free radicals and prevent cancer metastasis.

Longevity and Healthy Agingtag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb08272ae9970d2015-05-01T12:26:10-04:002015-05-01T12:34:04-04:00Aging Gracefully without Chronic Human Diseases Time Magazine and National Geographic both recently ran cover stories with a baby on the cover. The tagline reads: This baby could live to be 142 years old. So the question that immediately comes...SmartEconomy

Aging Gracefully without Chronic Human Diseases

Time Magazine and National Geographic both recently ran cover stories with a baby on the cover. The tagline reads: This baby could live to be 142 years old. So the question that immediately comes to mind is: Is this possible and can everyone age gracefully without chronic human diseases? And can we do it with today’s technology ?

To explore this question we first need to compare the mortality in 1900 versus today. In 1900, half of the deaths were caused by pneumonia, influenza, tuberculosis, gastrointestinal infections. These diseases were cured largely with antibiotics and antivirals after world war two. Cancer, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and Alzheimer’s were present but not near the rates we see today. Now, the top causes of death today, according to US statistics are heart disease, lung cancer, lung disease (asthma) , stroke, Alzheimer’s, diabetes and hypertension. An interesting question to ask would be: Do all these new, twenty first century diseases all have something in common, just like the top causes of death in 1900 where from bacterial or viral sources? A review of the medical literature shows two primary causes. In turns out that most chronic human diseases are 1) triggered by excess free radicals or oxidative stress and 2) are the result of a lack of essential minerals and trace minerals and cofactors in our diets.

Oxidative Stress

Free radicals or oxidative stress is the result of our cells metabolizing or breathing oxygen. Free radical are the “waste” products of life, and they are very destructive to cell membranes, proteins and DNA. Our body has a natural protective system-antioxidant enzymes that neutralize excess free radicals. If this delicate balance is disrupted, this then leads to an inflammation response in the body and eventually, chronic diseases could ensue. As we age, our natural antioxidant protective systems decline and we are told to supplement with natural botanical antioxidants, such as blueberries , green tea or cinnamon or antioxidant supplements such as Vitamin E or coenzyme Q10. But then we run into the “antioxidant paradox”. All these food antioxidants work great as antioxidants in a test tube in the lab, but in human clinical trials, the beneficial effects are either inconclusive or negative. This is because saliva and gut bacteria metabolise many these botanical antioxidants, before they have a chance to act beneficially.

Ukrainian scientists discovered the world’s highest antioxidant called Carbon 60 hydrated fullerenes, which is stable and inert and not metabolised by bacteria. Carbon 60, a natural product, was discovered in 1985 and a Nobel prize in Chemistry was awarded for this discovery in 1996. Scientists and doctors were calling it the panacea or silver bullet in medicine, but because it’s not naturally water soluble, just like diamonds, charcoal or activated charcoal, this frustrated scientists. Ukrainian scientist in Kharkiv the first to discovered how to dissolve Carbon 60 in water in 1994. After 20 years of preclinical, safety and clinical studies, Carbon 60 hydrated fullerenes were approved as a “dietary supplement” by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health and has been on the Ukrainian market since 2010. There is now a US patent pending. Scientists are now claiming that most chronic human diseases are triggered by excess free radicals. Just do a search on PUBMED with the key words “oxidative stress” and your own disease and you will find a link. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed ). Reduce excess free radicals and reduce your disease symptoms. A study at the University of Paris in 2010 showed that rats feed a diet supplemented with Carbon 60 in olive oil, increased the lifespan of rats by 90% from an average of 25-30 months to over 55 months.

Essential minerals and trace minerals.

The National Post ran a story on May 1- “Obese Canadians should be granted legal protection from discrimination, professor says.” The obesity debate is totally missing the point. Most Doctors are ignoring their own medical research. The cause of the 400% increase in obesity in last 3 decades in Canada and sharp rise in most other chronic human diseases since the 1930’ is due to a chronic lack of essential minerals and trace minerals in our diet (plants, fruits and vegetables) that are needed as co-factors in the body for our biochemical pathways to work efficiently.

The soil minerals concentrations have been dropping worldwide for the last 100 years, so less and less minerals are absorbed in fruits, vegetables and other plants. This is due primarily to the fact that we no longer cook and heat our homes with wood and throw away the ashes (95% minerals) back into the garden to replenish the soil with the 60 essential and trace minerals that our bodies need. Fertilizer only has 3 minerals. Even the nutritional supplements commonly found in most health food stores don't carry the full complement of 90 essential nutrients, which should include 60 essential minerals, 15 essential vitamins, 12 essential amino acids and 3 fatty acids and the right doses of each and the correct easily absorbable mineral salts.

How do we know that we need 90 essential nutrients? Just talk to any veterinarian. Vets have cured over 600 chronic human diseases in farm animals and in zoo animals by supplementing their food with nutritional pellets. When was the last time you saw a cow with arthritis and a pig with Alzheimer’s? Vets have to cure an animal after the first time otherwise beef would cost over $500 a pound or eggs $50 a dozen. Why? Because animals don’t have health insurance. Doctors are quite content to treat your disease symptoms for the rest of your life, billing health insurance and not curing your disease after a few visits. Human clinical studies in the past 40 years have shown that most chronic human diseases are also caused by essential mineral deficiencies and can be controlled with the proper essential and trace minerals. Diabetes has been controlled with the right amount of chromium and vanadium and other essential cofactors. Arthritis is a lack of proper calcium absorption and cofactors such as Vitamin D and magnesium. Greying hair is a copper deficiency in the diet.

So can we live to be 100 or over without chronic human diseases? Yes by reducing excess oxidative stress or free radicals in our body and ensuring that we get the right daily balance of 90 essential nutrients including 60 minerals and trace minerals.

If you would like more information on the above or a copy of my presentation on Aging Gracefully without Chronic Human Diseases that I gave at Ukrainian Canadian Social Services last week, send me an email wderzko@pathcom.com or call (416) 819-9667 or download it from this link http://bit.ly/1KzZvm8 For Ukrainian listeners, catch my Ukrainian radio interview on Radio KONTAKT archives from Saturday April 25, 2015 http://www.kontaktglobal.com/radio-saturday.html

Walter Derzko is the president of the startup C60 Water North America

Aging Gracefully without Chronic Human Diseasestag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01bb0826198c970d2015-04-29T17:40:28-04:002015-04-29T17:40:28-04:00I’m adding a link to a presentation I gave last week to a group of seniors at the Ukrainian Canadian Social Services –Toronto Branch on Aging Gracefully without Chronic Human Diseases. It’s designed for a non-technical, layperson audience. You can...SmartEconomy

I’m adding a link to a presentation I gave last week to a group of seniors at the Ukrainian Canadian Social Services –Toronto Branch on Aging Gracefully without Chronic Human Diseases. It’s designed for a non-technical, layperson audience. You can download it from the link below.

UPDATE on the Carbon[60] Hydrated Fullerenes-The Highest Antioxidant in the Worldtag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b8d0c8af86970c2015-01-26T11:56:04-05:002015-01-26T12:28:53-05:00Scientists have made a significant leap in cancer research. You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller 90% of all cancer deaths come...SmartEconomy

Scientists have made a significant leap in cancer research.

You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.

R. Buckminster Fuller

90% of all cancer deaths come from cancer spreading in the body from one organ to another, called metastasis. Stop metastasis, stop many unnecessary premature cancer deaths.

Belgium researches in 2014 determined that cancer metastasis can only occur if there are excess free radicals in the body. Specifically they conclude: “under certain conditions, the mitochondria produce more free radicals known as superoxide ions (O2.-). It is this overproduction of superoxide that leads to the formation of metastasis and, consequently, the growth of a tumor. “ See “A world first: Researchers identify a treatment that prevents tumor metastasis (Université catholique de Louvain)”http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-07/ucdl-awf072414.php

So, logically, if you can reduce excess oxidative stress and free radical levels in the body back to normal levels, theoretically, you should be able to prevent metastasis and reduce the risk of cancer growth and eliminate most cancer deaths.

This not only applies to cancer, but many other chronic human diseases, which appear to be triggered by excess free radicals too.

Just do a search on PUBMED using the term “oxidative stress” the name of any chronic human disease and you will see a connection/link to free radicals and most diseases. See http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed

In fact, researcher in Ukraine have already reduced oxidative stress in cancer cases and many other chronic human diseases with a safe, natural, organic molecule, called Carbon [60] or specifically the water-soluble version, called Carbon 60 Hydrated Fullerenes, C60HYFNs. It was approved by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health in 2010, as a dietary supplement and antioxidant, after 20 years of preclinical and clinical studies. It’s the world’s highest antioxidant and free radical scavenger, neutralizing excess free radicals. It was discovered in 1985 and a Nobel prize in Chemistry was awarded for the discover in 1996. Two years before that, Ukrainian researched discovered how to make Carbon[60] water-soluble, since most Carbon allotropes do not dissolve in water.

Most recently (Dec. 2014), Ukrainian researchers showed that C60HYFNs combined with traditional chemotherapy (Doxorubicin) , eliminates tumors in animal models without the toxic effects seen with traditional chemo. They showed that this combination: “resulted in tumor growth inhibition, prolongation of life, metastasis inhibition, and increased number of apoptotic tumor cells and was more effective than the corresponding course of Dox treatment alone.”

Carbon 60, a radiation protector, also reduces the negative effects of traditional radiation therapy. See Peculiarities of the antioxidant and radioprotective effects of hydrated C60 fullerene nanostuctures in vitro and in vivo.http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19539750

We are in the process of submitting the clinical studies to the FDA to get a GRAS designation to sell C60HYFNs as an antioxidant dietary supplement in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

Walter Derzko

President

C60 Water North America

416-819-9667

Belgian Researchers Discover Way to Block Cancer Metastasis tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b8d06ce760970c2014-09-18T16:51:52-04:002014-09-18T17:38:27-04:00Free Radicals and Cancer Metastasis KEY QUOTE: The Belgian team led by Sonveaux has found the mechanism by which cells can control changes caused at least in part by free radicals. The free radical involved in the metastacism of tumor...SmartEconomy

Free Radicals and Cancer Metastasis

KEY QUOTE: The Belgian team led by Sonveaux has found the mechanism by which cells can control changes caused at least in part by free radicals. The free radical involved in the metastacism of tumor cells is superoxide. Tests in mice on melanoma and breast cancer cells showed that administering an antioxidant stopped the production of superoxide. That, in turn, prevented cell changes that would lead to metastasis.

N.B. This is confirmation why Carbon 60 Hydrated Fullerenes stops cancer metastasis, by scavanging free radicals that cause cancer. Ukrainian scientists have known this for over ten years!!--Walter Derzko

September 18, 2014

12:28 AM

WASHINGTON—

Cancer remains one of the deadliest diseases, despite many new methods to combat it. Modern medicine has treatments to prevent the growth of primary tumor cells. But most cancer deaths are caused by metastasis, when primary tumor cells change and move to other parts of the body. A team of Belgian scientists says it has found a way to prevent that process.

Metastasis occurs as primary tumor cells leave the tumor, get into the blood stream, pass through the circulatory system, and then find new tissue to colonize.

Belgian scientists at a research institute of the Université Catholique de Louvain say they have discovered a way to prevent the metastasis of primary tumors from breast and melanomic cancer cells in mice.

"When you have few metastases, this is still manageable for therapy. But when you have a lot of metastases all around your body, you are good for palliative care, it's sad to say so. So what we've found is a treatment able to prevent metastases. Of course, this offers a high hope for patients which are at risk for metastases," said Professor Pierre Sonveaux of the Université Catholique de Louvain.

Cancer specialists say metastasis is a complicated process about which much is still unknown.

"For instance, cells have to change their shapes in order to metastasize, and we don't understand basic questions about how cells can change their shape," said the Institute of Cancer Research’s Chris Bakal.

The Belgian team led by Sonveaux has found the mechanism by which cells can control changes caused at least in part by free radicals. The free radical involved in the metastacism of tumor cells is superoxide. Tests in mice on melanoma and breast cancer cells showed that administering an antioxidant stopped the production of superoxide. That, in turn, prevented cell changes that would lead to metastasis.

"In some of these models, we found 100 percent response. It means that we prevented by 100 percent the dissemination of metastases. When you are a scientist and when you find this, you just fall on the ground. This is a very nice result," said Sonveaux.

The research, published in the journal Cell Reports, has drawn praise from other scientists. Bakal said the findings could lead to the development of a therapy to prevent the spread of metastatic cancer cells by blocking pathways to free radicals.

"What it suggests is that by targeting these pathways, these free radical pathways, it could represent a way, a therapeutic avenue, by which to inhibit metastasis, which we weren't necessarily clear of before. So if we lower the amount of free radicals in metastatic cells, it suggests we could prevent metastasis," said Bakal.

Belgian researchers say they now want to find out if this strategy can be applied to prevent metastasis of other tumors, such as colon cancer, lung cancer and prostate cancer. The next step would be developing the necessary drugs and starting clinical trials on cancer patients.

New non-invasive technique could revolutionize the imaging of metastatic cancertag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73e187ffb970d2014-09-18T08:47:36-04:002014-09-18T09:02:57-04:00IMAGE: This is Paul Fisher, M.Ph., Ph.D., Thelma Newmeyer Corman Endowed Chair in Cancer Research and co-leader of the Cancer Molecular Genetics research program at VCU Massey Cancer Center, chairman of... Click here for more information. Bioluminescence, nanoparticles, gene manipulation...SmartEconomy

IMAGE: This is Paul Fisher, M.Ph., Ph.D., Thelma Newmeyer Corman Endowed Chair in Cancer Research and co-leader of the Cancer Molecular Genetics research program at VCU Massey Cancer Center, chairman of...

Bioluminescence, nanoparticles, gene manipulation – these sound like the ideas of a science fiction writer, but, in fact, they are components of an exciting new approach to imaging local and metastatic tumors. In preclinical animal models of metastatic prostate cancer, scientists at Virginia Commonwealth University Massey Cancer Center, VCU Institute of Molecular Medicine and Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions have provided proof-of-principle of a new molecular imaging approach that could revolutionize doctors' ability to see tumors that have metastasized to other sites in the body, including the bones.

Recently published in the OnlineFirst edition of the journal Cancer Research, a journal of the American Association for Cancer Research, this multiple institution study is the first to develop in vivo (in animal models) a systemically administered, non-invasive, molecular-genetic technique to image bone metastases resulting from prostate cancer. The new method relies on the detection of a gene known as AEG-1, which was originally discovered by the study's co-lead investigator Paul B. Fisher, M.Ph., Ph.D., and has been shown to be expressed in the majority of cancers but not in normal, healthy cells. In preclinical studies, the researchers were able to image bone metastases with greater accuracy than any clinically approved imaging method.

"Currently, we do not have a sensitive and specific non-invasive technique to detect bone metastases, so we are very encouraged by the results of this study" says Fisher, Thelma Newmeyer Corman Endowed Chair in Cancer Research and co-leader of the Cancer Molecular Genetics research program at VCU Massey Cancer Center, chairman of the Department of Human and Molecular Genetics at the VCU School of Medicine and director of the VCU Institute of Molecular Medicine. "Additionally, because AEG-1 is expressed in the majority of cancers, this research could potentially lead to earlier detection and treatment of metastases originating from a variety of cancer types."

Imaging the expression of a gene in real time is not an easy task. To do it, the scientists used a promoter called AEG-Prom. A promoter is a set of chemical instructions coded in DNA that initiates activity in a gene. The team combined AEG-Prom with imaging agents consisting of a gene that produces firefly luciferase, the bioluminescent substance that makes fireflies glow, and a gene called HSV1tk, which initiates a chemical reaction when specific radioactive compounds are administered. The team then inserted the combination into tiny nanoparticles that are injected intravenously. When exposed to specific proteins that activate the AEG-Prom, including the c-MYC protein that is elevated in many cancer cells, the AEG-Prom initiates activity in the imaging agent, and the location of cancer cells expressing the imaging agent are made visible using sensitive imaging devices.

"The imaging agents and nanoparticle used in this study have already been tested in unrelated clinical trials. Moving this concept into the clinic to image metastasis in patients is the next logical step in the evolution of this research," says co-lead author Martin G. Pomper, M.D., Ph.D., William R. Brody Professor of Radiology at Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions. "My colleagues and I are working toward this goal, and we look forward to opening a study to deploy this technology as soon as possible."

Fisher and Pomper are pioneering the use of cancer-specific and cancer-selective gene promoters to image cancer. Previous studies in melanoma and breast cancer leveraged another gene originally discovered by Fisher called progression elevated gene-3 (PEG-3) using a promoter known as PEG-Prom. In addition to imaging, this approach could also be used to deliver therapeutic agents, such as targeted therapies, directly to local and distant tumors sites and allow physicians to monitor drug delivery in real time. Separate studies are currently under way to examine the therapeutic potential of this strategy.

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Fisher and Pomper collaborated on this research with Siddik Sarkar, Ph.D., postdoctoral research scientist in the Department of Human and Molecular Genetics at the VCU School of Medicine, as well as Akrita Bhatnagar, Ph.D., Yuchuan Wang, Ph.D., Ronnie C. Mease, Ph.D., Matthew Gabrielson, M.D., Polina Sysa, M.D., lL Minn, Ph.D., Gilbert Green, Brian Simmons, Ph.D., and Kathleen Gabrielson, D.V.M., Ph.D., all from Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions.

This study was supported by National Cancer Institute grant CA151838, the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the Patrick C. Walsh Foundation, the National Foundation for Cancer Research and, in part, by VCU Massey Cancer Center's NIH-NCI Cancer Center Support Grant P30 CA016059.

Space: The final frontier… open to the publictag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73e187e9d970d2014-09-18T08:38:20-04:002014-09-18T08:38:20-04:00UTMB research shows average people healthy enough for commercial space travel Historically, spaceflight has been reserved for the very healthy. Astronauts are selected for their ability to meet the highest physical and psychological standards to prepare them for any unknown...SmartEconomy

UTMB research shows average people healthy enough for commercial space travel

Historically, spaceflight has been reserved for the very healthy. Astronauts are selected for their ability to meet the highest physical and psychological standards to prepare them for any unknown challenges. However, with the advent of commercial spaceflight, average people can now fly for enjoyment. The aerospace medicine community has had very little information about what medical conditions or diseases should be considered particularly risky in the spaceflight environment, as most medical conditions have never been studied for risk in space — until now.

The aerospace medicine group at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston recently studied how average people with common medical problems — high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, lung diseases like asthma or emphysema and back and neck injuries, surgeries or disorders — would be able to tolerate the stresses of commercial spaceflight. Overall, they found that nearly everyone with well-controlled medical conditions who participated in this project tolerated simulated flight without problems. The study can be found in the journal Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine.

"Physiological stresses of flight include increased acceleration forces, or 'G-forces,' during launch and re-entry, as well as the microgravity period," said lead author Dr. Rebecca Blue. "Our goal was to see how average people with common medical problems, who aren't necessarily as fit as a career astronaut, would be able to tolerate these stresses of an anticipated commercial spaceflight."

Some medical conditions are of particular interest within the commercial spaceflight industry, either because of the high rate of occurrence or because of the potential to cause sudden, serious medical events. The researchers studied how people with these common conditions performed when put through centrifuge simulations of spaceflight launch and re-entry.

The centrifuge allows researchers to mimic the acceleration of a rocket launch or of a spacecraft re-entering through the atmosphere. Astronauts regularly use centrifuges to train for their own spaceflights. The acceleration forces expected in a commercial spaceflight profile are tolerable, but can be uncomfortable, for healthy individuals. The researchers wanted to see if they were equally tolerable for individuals with complex medical histories or whether there were certain conditions that would make it more difficult for them to handle the flight.

"This study further supports the belief that, despite significant chronic medical conditions, the dream of spaceflight is one that most people can achieve," said Blue.

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Other authors of this paper include James Pattarini, David Reyes, Robert Mulcahy, Charles Mathers, Johnené Vardiman, Tarah Castleberry and James Vanderploeg of UTMB and Alejandro Garbino of Baylor College of Medicine.

This research was supported by the Federal Aviation Administration's Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, which has designated UTMB's aerospace medicine group as a leader in research for the commercial spaceflight industry. The goal of the UTMB group is to identify the knowledge gaps regarding commercial spaceflight and to address these gaps with research to allow for science-based decision-making within the field. The team also had support from the National Space Biomedical Research Institute to complete this work.

How stress tears us aparttag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b8d06c825d970c2014-09-18T08:20:16-04:002014-09-18T08:20:16-04:00A team from the EPFL Brain Mind Institute has discovered an important synaptic mechanism: the activation of a cleaving enzyme, leading to behavioral problems connected to chronic stress. IMAGE: Carmen Sandi's team at EPFL discovered an important synaptic mechanism in...SmartEconomy

A team from the EPFL Brain Mind Institute has discovered an important synaptic mechanism: the activation of a cleaving enzyme, leading to behavioral problems connected to chronic stress.

IMAGE: Carmen Sandi's team at EPFL discovered an important synaptic mechanism in the effects of chronic stress. It causes the massive release of glutamate which acts on NMDA receptors, essential for...

Why is it that when people are too stressed they are often grouchy, grumpy, nasty, distracted or forgetful? Researchers from the Brain Mind Institute (BMI) at EPFL have just highlighted a fundamental synaptic mechanism that explains the relationship between chronic stress and the loss of social skills and cognitive impairment. When triggered by stress, an enzyme attacks a synaptic regulatory molecule in the brain. This was revealed by a work published in Nature Communications.

Carmen Sandi's team went to look for answers in a region of the hippocampus known for its involvement in behavior and cognitive skills. In there, scientists were interested in a molecule, the nectin-3 cell adhesion protein, whose role is to ensure adherence, at the synaptic level, between two neurons. Positioned in the postsynaptic part, these proteins bind to the molecules of the presynaptic portion, thus ensuring the synaptic function. However, the researchers found that on rat models affected by chronic stress, nectin-3 molecules were significantly reduced in number.

The investigations conducted by the researchers led them to an enzyme involved in the process of protein degradation: MMP-9. It was already known that chronic stress causes a massive release of glutamate, a molecule that acts on NMDA receptors, which are essential for synaptic plasticity and thus for memory. What these researchers found now is that these receptors activated the MMP-9 enzymes which, like scissors, literally cut the nectin-3 cell adhesion proteins. "When this happens, nectin-3 becomes unable to perform its role as a modulator of synaptic plasticity" explained Carmen Sandi. In turn, these effects lead subjects to lose their sociability, avoid interactions with their peers and have impaired memory or understanding.

The researchers, in conjunction with Polish neuroscientists, were able to confirm this mechanism in rodents both in vitro and in vivo. By means of external treatments that either activated nectin-3 or inhibited MMP-9, they showed that stressed subjectscould regain their sociability and normal cognitive skills. "The identification of this mechanism is important because it suggests potential treatments for neuropsychiatric disorders related to chronic stress, particularly depression," said Carmen Sandi, member of the NCCR-Synapsy, which studies the neurobiological roots of psychiatric disorders.

Interestingly, MMP-9 expression is also involved in other pathologies, such as neurodegenerative diseases, including ALS or epilepsy. "This result opens new research avenues on the still unknown consequences of chronic stress," concluded Carmen Sandi, the BMI's director.

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Scientists pioneer microscopy technique that yields fresh data on muscular dystrophytag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73e187bed970d2014-09-18T08:12:18-04:002014-09-18T08:12:18-04:0018-Sep-2014 New imaging tech lets scientists 'paint' a target in a living subject and watch it work -- with unprecedented sensitivity and precision IMAGE: A new single-molecule imaging technique developed at USC provides new insights into the role of dystrophin...SmartEconomy

18-Sep-2014

New imaging tech lets scientists 'paint' a target in a living subject and watch it work -- with unprecedented sensitivity and precision

IMAGE: A new single-molecule imaging technique developed at USC provides new insights into the role of dystrophin proteins for muscle function in Caenorhabditis elegans worm models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Scientists at USC have developed a new microscopy technology that allows them to view single molecules in living animals at higher-than-ever resolution.

Dubbed "Complementation Activated Light Microscopy" (CALM), the new technology allows imaging resolutions that are an order of magnitude finer than conventional optical microscopy, providing new insights into the behavior of biomolecules at the nanometer scale.

In a paper published on Sept. 18 by Nature Communications, the researchers behind CALM used it to study dystrophin – a key structural protein of muscle cells – in Caenorhabditis elegans worms used to model Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is the most severe and most common form of the degenerative disease.

The researchers showed that dystrophin was responsible for regulating tiny molecular fluctuations in calcium channels while muscles are in use. The discovery suggests that a lack of functional dystrophin alters the dynamics of ion channels – helping to cause the defective mechanical responses and the calcium imbalance that impair normal muscle activity in patients with muscular dystrophy.

Ten Times the Precision of Optical Microscopy

CALM works by splitting a green fluorescent protein from a jellyfish into two fragments that fit together like puzzle pieces. One fragment is engineered to be expressed in an animal test subject while the other fragment is injected into the animal's circulatory system.

When they meet, the fragments unite and start emitting fluorescent light that can be detected with incredible accuracy, offering imaging precisions of around 20 nanometers. Conventional optical microscopy of living tissues can only achieve a 200 nanometer resolution at best. For scale, a sheet of paper is 100,000 nanometers thick.

"Now, for the first time, we can explore the basic principles of homeostatic controls and the molecular basis of diseases at the nanometer scale directly in intact animal models," said Fabien Pinaud, assistant professor at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and lead researcher on the project.

Pinaud collaborated with scientists from the University Claude Bernard Lyon in France and the University of Würzburg in Germany.

Building the Tools for Tomorrow's Research

The new technology lies at the heart of the convergence of science and engineering at USC, where researchers from both fields collaborate to create the tools that make scientific and medical breakthroughs possible.

"There are trillions of proteins at work on an infinitely small scale at every moment in an animal's body. The ability to detect individual protein copies in their native tissue environment allows us to reveal their functional organization and their nanoscale molecular behaviors despite this astronomical complexity," Pinaud said.

Next, Pinaud and his colleagues will focus on engineering other colors of split-fluorescent proteins to image the dynamics of individual ion channels at neuromuscular synapses within live worms.

"It so happens that the same calcium channels we studied in muscles also associate with nanometer-sized membrane domains at synapses where they modulate neuronal transmissions in both normal and disease conditions," Pinaud said. Using multi-color CALM, his team and collaborators will probe how these tiny active zones of neurons are assembled and how they influence the function of calcium channels during neuron activation.

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This research was funded by USC startup funds and the computational work was supported by the USC Center for High-Performance Computing and Communications.

Target-aimed synthesis of a new class of water soluble amino acid and dipeptide derivatives of fullurene (C60 - X) for inhibition of specific virus enzymes, i.e. protease and reverse transcriptase of HIV (P HIV and RT HIV) in cell culture lytic and chronic infections was performed. Out of 13 tested substances, 8 showed inhibitory activity and 5 were effective in pharmacological doses (ID50 varied within 0.46 to 1.0 mcm/ml with respect to the lytic infection and 5.0 to 12.5 mcm/ml with respect to the chronic infection). The activity of (1), (2), (6), (7) and (8) was comparable to that of azidothymidine, a nucleozide inhibitor of RT HIV in the cell culture lytic infection. The substances also showed marked virucidal action. The cytotoxicity (survival, antiproliferative effect) varied from low to very low with respect to the rapidly dividing cells MT4 and HTHIV27 (CD50 > 200-800) and was somewhat higher with respect to PBL (CD50 > 100). The selectivity index (SI = CD50/ID50) was equal to 165-2000 for various samples. The prototype derivatives (1) and (2) had a selective (competitive) inhibitory action on the recombinant protease of HIV with IC50 = 1.25-2.76 mcM, while derivatives (1), (la) and (2) had a noncompetitive inhibitory action on the recombinant reverse transcriptase of HIV (Ki = 7.9-12.1 mM). The pharmacokinetic study of the prototype derivative (1) on laboratory animals revealed no acute or chronic toxicity up to the terminal high concentrations. As for (1), its high interspecies (mice--rabbits) relative bioavailability equal to 110% was shown.

One of the urgent problems of modern veterinary biotechnology is to solve the complex task that lies at the intersection of chemistry, physics, materials science, biology, veterinary medicine is focused design, synthesis and study of the functional properties of nanomaterials which characterized by high bioavailability and biocompatibility, low toxicity and high specific biological activity. In our studies, was used C60 fullerene - fullerene in water-soluble form. This compound molecule is nearly spherical, with a diameter of 0.72 nm , the surface of which consists of 60 carbon atoms connected by single or double chemical called " links. Considered that C60- fullerenes are potential pharmaceutical compounds. However, along with a broad perspective on the use of such substances for the prevention and treatment of diseases, there are certain precautions, particularly with regard to the possible toxic effects on biological objects, including on cell. Therefore, our research started with the determination of cytotoxic properties of C60 fullerene - on cell line BHK -21, which is continuous line origin from Syrian hamster and which is used in many medical and biological research. In experiments used at least ten holes in plates with cell culture for each drug dilution in culture medium. The plates with cell culture incubated at +37˚ C with 5% СО2 for 96 hours. Thus, we have found the maximum cytotoxic concentration of compound that was 0,0375 ±0,003 mg/ml (n=3,). Determined the antiviral activity of C60 - fullerene, using as a biological model coronovirus (virus of transmissible gastroenteritis of swine). Coronoviruses affect both animals and humans, leading in many cases to a high degree of mortality. Investigation of antiviral activity of fullerene on transmissible gastroenteritis virus of swine in the system in vitro, n = 5 (each concentration: 0,15 , 0,075, 0,0375, 0,019, 0,009, 0,005 was tested in 10 holes). We found that C60-fullerene reduced the infectious properties of the virus by 2.0 TCID 50/ml which is a significant result. Therefore, preliminary data suggest recommend this compound for further preclinical and clinical studies.

OXIDATIVE STRESS PREDICTS HIP FRACTURE Elizabeth Hofheinz, M.P.H., M.Ed. • Thu, August 28th, 2014 http://ryortho.c...om/breaking/oxidative-stress-predicts-hip-fracture/ Researchers from the University of Cincinnati (UC), Harvard School of Public Health, and Harvard Medical School have found that oxidative stress is a significant predictor for hip fracture in postmenopausal women. The study appears online ahead of print in the Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. The research was led by Tianying Wu, M.D., Ph.D., an assistant professor in the UC College of Medicine Department of Environmental Health, and Shuman Yang, a postdoctoral fellow in the department. The team evaluated participants from the Nurses’ Health Study, and measured oxidative stress by noting fluorescent oxidation products (FlOP) in blood plasma. “To our knowledge, this is the first prospective study among postmenopausal women demonstrating that oxidative stress was a significant predictor for hip fracture,” said Dr. Wu in the August 14, 2014 news release. According to the news release, a total of 996 women aged 60 or older were measured at baseline blood collection (1989-1990). “Plasma FlOPs were measured at three excitation/emission wavelengths: 360/420 nm (nanometers), named as FlOP_360; 320/420 nm, named as FlOP_320; and 400-475 nm, named as FlOP_400. FlOP_360 represents oxidation products that are generated from oxidized phospholipids or from lipid oxidation products reacting with proteins. FlOP_320 is formed when oxidation products such as lipid hydroperoxides, aldehydes and ketones react with DNA in the presence of metals. FlOP_400 reflects the interaction between malondialdehyde (a specific marker for lipid oxidation), proteins and phospholipids.” “Of the three wavelengths, researchers found that baseline levels of FlOP_320 products predicted risk of future hip fracture in the study cohort. (No association was found with FlOP_360 and FlOP_400.) Increased FlOP_320 was associated with greater risk of hip fracture; women in the upper 30% of FlOP_320 readings were found to have 2.67 times the risk of hip fractures of those in the bottom 30%.” “Because FlOP_320 is generated in the presence of metals, its strong association with hip fractures may reflect the co-existing effect of reactive oxygen species and heavy metals,” says Dr. Wu, who notes that the other FlOP products can be generated without metals. Dr. Wu told OTW, “If our results are confirmed in larger studies, FlOP_320 may potentially used as a marker for screening individuals are at risk for hip fracture in addition to DEXA scan.”

Free Radicals, ALS and C60 Hydrated Fullerenestag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73e07f6de970d2014-08-24T23:10:30-04:002014-08-24T23:32:45-04:00ALS and the ice bucket challenge has been getting a lot of media coverage, with over $3 million being raised so far in Canada. What causes Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) ? Simple. Like most other human diseases it's Oxidative stress...SmartEconomy

ALS and the ice bucket challenge has been getting a lot of media coverage, with over $3 million being raised so far in Canada. What causes Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) ?

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by the progressive loss of motoneurons and degradation of the neuromuscular junctions (NMJ). Consistent with the dying-back hypothesis of motoneuron degeneration the decline in synaptic function initiates from the presynaptic terminals in ALS. Oxidative stress is a major contributory factor to ALS pathology and affects the presynaptic transmitter releasing machinery. Indeed, in ALS mouse models nerve terminals are sensitive to reactive oxygen species (ROS) suggesting that oxidative stress, along with compromised mitochondria and increased intracellular Ca(2+) amplifies the presynaptic decline in NMJ. This initial dysfunction is followed by a neurodegeneration induced by inflammatory agents and loss of trophic support. To develop effective therapeutic approaches against ALS, it is important to identify the mechanisms underlying the initial pathological events. Given the role of oxidative stress in ALS, targeted antioxidant treatments could be a promising therapeutic approach. However, the complex nature of ALS and failure of monotherapies suggest that an antioxidant therapy should be accompanied by anti-inflammatory interventions to enhance the restoration of the redox balance. KEYWORDS: ALS; ROS; neurodegeneration; neuromuscular junction; oxidative stresshttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24860432

Do Gut Bacteria Rule Our Minds?tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01b7c6ce4d65970b2014-08-18T14:22:00-04:002014-08-18T14:22:00-04:00In an Ecosystem Within Us, Microbes Evolved to Sway Food Choices By Jeffrey Norris on August 15, 2014 Email It sounds like science fiction, but it seems that bacteria within us – which outnumber our own cells about 100-fold –...SmartEconomy

In an Ecosystem Within Us, Microbes Evolved to Sway Food Choices

It sounds like science fiction, but it seems that bacteria within us – which outnumber our own cells about 100-fold – may very well be affecting both our cravings and moods to get us to eat what they want, and often are driving us toward obesity.

In an article published this week in the journal BioEssays, researchers from UC San Francisco, Arizona State University and University of New Mexico concluded from a review of the recent scientific literature that microbes influence human eating behavior and dietary choices to favor consumption of the particular nutrients they grow best on, rather than simply passively living off whatever nutrients we choose to send their way.

A Power Struggle Inside the Gut

Bacterial species vary in the nutrients they need. Some prefer fat, and others sugar, for instance. But they not only vie with each other for food and to retain a niche within their ecosystem – our digestive tracts – they also often have different aims than we do when it comes to our own actions, according to senior author Athena Aktipis, PhD, co-founder of the Center for Evolution and Cancer with the Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center at UCSF.

Are we at the mercy of our gut bacteria? The above image illustrates how microbes can "pull our strings," driving us to crave foods that give them the nutrients they need, including fat and sugar.

While it is unclear exactly how this occurs, the authors believe this diverse community of microbes, collectively known as the gut microbiome, may influence our decisions by releasing signaling molecules into our gut. Because the gut is linked to the immune system, the endocrine system and the nervous system, those signals could influence our physiologic and behavioral responses.

“Bacteria within the gut are manipulative,” said Carlo Maley, PhD, director of the UCSF Center for Evolution and Cancer and corresponding author on the paper. “There is a diversity of interests represented in the microbiome, some aligned with our own dietary goals, and others not.”

Fortunately, it’s a two-way street. We can influence the compatibility of these microscopic, single-celled houseguests by deliberating altering what we ingest, Maley said, with measurable changes in the microbiome within 24 hours of diet change.

“Our diets have a huge impact on microbial populations in the gut,” Maley said. “It’s a whole ecosystem, and it’s evolving on the time scale of minutes.”

There are even specialized bacteria that digest seaweed, found in humans in Japan, where seaweed is popular in the diet.

The Connection Between Digestive Tract and Brain

Research suggests that gut bacteria may be affecting our eating decisions in part by acting through the vagus nerve, which connects 100 million nerve cells from the digestive tract to the base of the brain.

Athena Aktipis, PhD

Carlo Maley, PhD

“Microbes have the capacity to manipulate behavior and mood through altering the neural signals in the vagus nerve, changing taste receptors, producing toxins to make us feel bad, and releasing chemical rewards to make us feel good,” said Aktipis, who is currently in the Arizona State University Department of Psychology.

In mice, certain strains of bacteria increase anxious behavior. In humans, one clinical trial found that drinking a probiotic containing Lactobacillus casei improved mood in those who were feeling the lowest.

Maley, Aktipis and first author Joe Alcock, MD, from the Department of Emergency Medicine at the University of New Mexico, proposed further research to test the sway microbes hold over us. For example, would transplantation into the gut of the bacteria requiring a nutrient from seaweed lead the human host to eat more seaweed?

The speed with which the microbiome can change may be encouraging to those who seek to improve health by altering microbial populations. This may be accomplished through food and supplement choices, by ingesting specific bacterial species in the form of probiotics, or by killing targeted species with antibiotics. Optimizing the balance of power among bacterial species in our gut might allow us to lead less obese and healthier lives, according to the authors.

Implications for Obesity, Diabetes and even Cancer

The authors met and first discussed the ideas in the BioEssays paper at a summer school conference on evolutionary medicine two years ago.

Aktipis, who is an evolutionary biologist and a psychologist, was drawn to the opportunity to investigate the complex interaction of the different fitness interests of microbes and their hosts and how those play out in our daily lives. Maley, a computer scientist and evolutionary biologist, had established a career studying how tumor cells arise from normal cells and evolve over time through natural selection within the body as cancer progresses.

In fact, the evolution of tumors and of bacterial communities are linked, points out Aktipis, who said some of the bacteria that normally live within us cause stomach cancer and perhaps other cancers.

“Targeting the microbiome could open up possibilities for preventing a variety of disease from obesity and diabetes to cancers of the gastro-intestinal tract. We are only beginning to scratch the surface of the importance of the microbiome for human health,” she said.

The co-authors’ BioEssays study was funded by the National Institutes of Health, the American Cancer Society, the Bonnie D. Addario Lung Cancer Foundation and the Institute for Advanced Study, in Berlin.

UC San Francisco (UCSF), now celebrating the 150th anniversary of its founding, is a leading university dedicated to promoting health worldwide through advanced biomedical research, graduate-level education in the life sciences and health professions, and excellence in patient care. It includes top-ranked graduate schools of dentistry, medicine, nursing and pharmacy, a graduate division with nationally renowned programs in basic, biomedical, translational and population sciences, as well as a preeminent biomedical research enterprise and two top-ranked hospitals, UCSF Medical Center and UCSF Benioff Children’s Hospital San Francisco.

Russian terrorists planned to shoot down Aeroflot and Russian civilians-shot down Malaysian Airlines Boeing MN17 insteadtag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73dfd8752970d2014-08-07T23:10:56-04:002014-08-07T23:10:56-04:00REAL RUSSIAN RED FLAG OPERATION… TRAGIC FAILURE-WD Why is the western media not all over this? Where is CNN when you need them? Ukraine's Security Service: Russian terrorists and militants planned a cynical terrorist attack against an Aeroflot civil aircraft...SmartEconomy

REAL RUSSIAN RED FLAG OPERATION… TRAGIC FAILURE-WD

Why is the western media not all over this? Where is CNN when you need them?

Ukraine's Security Service: Russian terrorists and militants planned a cynical terrorist attack against an Aeroflot civil aircraft (...Shot down Malaysian Flight MH17 instead)Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, Ukraine's Security Service Head: During the investigation of Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 downing the law enforcement and intelligence bodies established that terrorists and militants have cynically planned the terrorist attack against Aeroflot civil aircraft, AFL-2074 Moscow-Larnaca, which was flying over the territory of Ukraine at that moment.

How to OUTFOX PUTIN? tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a3fd41a28a970b2014-08-06T14:08:10-04:002014-08-06T14:08:44-04:00Short Version By Walter Derzko Turn the Basic elements of information warfare, used by Russia against Ukraine back against Russia: (source: RUSSIA’S REFLEXIVE CONTROL THEORY; 2004 http://www.rit.edu/~w-cmmc/literature/Thomas_2004.pdf) The Current Information Warfare (called Reflexive Control) used by Russia against Ukraine today...SmartEconomy

Short Version By Walter Derzko

Turn the Basic elements of information warfare, used by Russia against Ukraine back against Russia:

The Current Information Warfare (called Reflexive Control) used by Russia against Ukraine today

Distraction, by creating a real or imaginary threat to one of the enemy’s most vital locations (flanks, rear, etc.) during the preparatory stages of combat operations, thereby forcing him to reconsider the wisdom of his decisions to operate along this or that axis;

• Russian troops at the Ukrainian boarder

Strategic missile tests

Overload, by frequently sending the enemy a large amount of conflicting information;

• Russian spies in all levels of the Ukrainian government

• Russia Today TV and all Russian mass media outlets

Paralysis, by creating the perception of a specific threat to a vital interest or weak spot;

• Diversions in Lviv, Zakarpatia and on Maidan in Kyiv

Exhaustion, by compelling the enemy to carry out useless operations, thereby entering combat with reduced resources;

• Multiple small skirmishes and checkpoint controls in Luhansk and Donetsk

Deception, by forcing the enemy to reallocate forces to a threatened region during the preparatory stages of combat operations;

• Multiple small skirmishes and checkpoint controls in Luhansk and Donetsk

Division, by convincing the enemy that he must operate in opposition to coalition interests;

• Invasion of Crimea and passive army resistance

Pacification, by leading the enemy to believe that pre-planned operational training is occurring rather than offensive preparations, thus reducing his vigilance;

• Countless Russian training maneuvers at or near the Ukrainian boarder

Deterrence, by creating the perception of insurmountable superiority;

• Infographics on FB and the internet about the hardware superiority of the RF army vs the Ukrainian army

Provocation, by forcing him into taking action advantageous to your side;

• Many existing Ukrainian Parliamentary MP get bribes from Russia to allow contraband, narcotics and weapons to cross from Russia into Ukraine unimpeded

Overload, by dispatching an excessively large number of messages to the enemy during the preparatory period;

• Russian mass media

Suggestion, by offering information that affects the enemy legally, morally, ideologically, or in other areas;

• The Kremlin is trying to scare the EU with response sanctions: “This is just like war”

and

Pressure, by offering information that discredits the government in the eyes of its population.

• Russia Today and all Russian media outlets.

Local Oblast and village politicians and business owners get bribed by Russia to tow the Russian line.

We can play the Reflexive Control game in the West to topple Putin too. How?

I can think of at least a dozen tactics. Here is just one example that is starting to be put into play:

Imposing sanctions is the right strategy; what we haven’t got right is the objective of these sanctions-which should be to get the Russian Oligarchs who’ve been keeping Putin in power, or tolerating Putin in power, to throw the knockout punch against him.

Herbert E. Meyer, who served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence –William (Bill) Casey and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council concludes: “That’s why the sanctions will work if Obama and his European counterparts will keep tightening the screws; if they keep making commerce more difficult for Russia’s serious business executives, for instance by blocking their access to capital, and if they keep making life more miserable for Russia’s playboy oligarchs, for instance by canceling their credit cards and denying landing rights to their private jets.” (cancelling boarding school privileges in the U.K. for about 4,000 Russian students from rich families or denying Oligarchs their yacht mooring privileges in London or the Riviera-disaster !!-WD}.

The West must send one clear message: Obama, Harper and European leaders must keep telling the Russians -- bluntly and publicly -- that all this will end the moment Vladimir Putin leaves the Kremlin for good.

Researchers at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine report that dietary capsaicin – the active ingredient in chili peppers – produces chronic activation of a receptor on cells lining the intestines of mice, triggering a reaction that ultimately reduces the risk of colorectal tumors.

The findings are published in the August 1, 2014 issue of The Journal of Clinical Investigation.

The receptor or ion channel, called TRPV1, was originally discovered in sensory neurons, where it acts as a sentinel for heat, acidity and spicy chemicals in the environment. “These are all potentially harmful stimuli to cells,” said Eyal Raz, MD, professor of Medicine and senior author of the study. “Thus, TRPV1 was quickly described as a molecular ‘pain receptor.’ This can be considered to be its conventional function, which all takes place in the nervous system.”

But Raz and colleagues have found that TPRV1 is also expressed by epithelial cells of the intestines, where it is activated by epidermal growth factor receptor or EGFR. EGFR is an important driver of cell proliferation in the intestines, whose epithelial lining is replaced approximately every four to six days.

“A basic level of EGFR activity is required to maintain the normal cell turnover in the gut,” said Petrus de Jong, MD, first author of the study. “However, if EGFR signaling is left unrestrained, the risk of sporadic tumor development increases.”

The scientists discovered that TRPV1, once activated by the EGFR, initiates a direct negative feedback on the EGFR, dampening the latter to reduce the risk of unwanted growth and intestinal tumor development. They found that mice genetically modified to be TRPV1-deficient suffered higher-than-normal rates of intestinal tumor growths.

“These results showed us that epithelial TRPV1 normally works as a tumor suppressor in the intestines,” said de Jong. In addition, molecular studies of human colorectal cancer samples recently uncovered multiple mutations in the TRPV1 gene, though Raz noted that currently there is no direct evidence that TRPV1 deficiency is a risk factor for colorectal cancer in humans.

“A direct association between TRPV1 function and human colorectal cancer should be addressed in future clinical studies,” he said.

But if such proves to be the case, the current study suggests one potential remedy might be spicy capsaicin, which acts as an irritant in mammals, generating a burning sensation in contact with tissue. Capsaicin is already broadly used as an analgesic in topical ointments, where its properties as an irritant overwhelm nerves, rendering them unable to report pain for extended periods of time. It’s also the active ingredient in pepper spray.

The researchers fed capsaicin to mice genetically prone to developing multiple tumors in the gastrointestinal tract. The treatment resulted in a reduced tumor burden and extended the lifespans of the mice by more than 30 percent. The treatment was even more effective when combined with celecoxib, a COX-2 non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug already approved for treating some forms of arthritis and pain.

“Our data suggest that individuals at high risk of developing recurrent intestinal tumors may benefit from chronic TRPV1 activation,” said Raz. “We have provided proof-of-principle.”

This research was supported, in part, by the Crohn’s and Colitis Foundation of America, the Prins Bernhard Cultural Foundation, the Scholten-Cordes Foundation, the Dr. Hendrick Muller Vaderlandsch Foundation, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, the European Molecular Biology Organization, the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, the Strategic Young Researcher Overseas Visits Program for Accelerating Brain Circulation, the Broad Medical Foundation and the National Institutes of Health (grants AI095623 and DK35108).

Link Between Excess Free Radicals, Oxidative Stress and Fibromyalgiatag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a3fd3d27b4970b2014-07-30T23:18:25-04:002014-07-30T23:18:25-04:00FACTSHEET 3.0: The Link Between Excess Free Radicals, Oxidative Stress and Fibromyalgia and How Can C[60] Hydrated Fullerenes Help? (v2) If you have fibromyalgia, or chronic fatigue syndrome you may want to consider drinking Carbon [60] Hydrated Fullerene Water Solution...SmartEconomy

FACTSHEET 3.0: The Link Between

Excess Free Radicals, Oxidative Stress and Fibromyalgia

and How Can C[60] Hydrated Fullerenes Help? (v2)

If you have fibromyalgia, or chronic fatigue syndrome you may want to consider drinking Carbon [60] Hydrated Fullerene Water Solution to scavenge / neutralise excess free radicals (oxidative stress) in the body that may cause fibromyalgia.

The role of free radicals in fibromyalgia is controversial. In this study, 85 female patients with primary fibromyalgia and 80 age-, height-, and weight-matched healthy women were evaluated for oxidant/antioxidant balance. Malondialdehyde is a toxic metabolite of lipid peroxidation used as a marker of free radical damage. Superoxide dismutase is an intracellular antioxidant enzyme and shows antioxidant capacity. Pain was assessed by visual analog scale. Tender points were assessed by palpation. Age, smoking, body mass index (BMI), and duration of disease were also recorded. Malondialdehyde levels were significantly higher and superoxide dismutase levels significantly lower in fibromyalgic patients than controls. Age, BMI, smoking, and duration of disease did not affect these parameters. We found no correlation between pain and number of tender points. In conclusion, oxidant/antioxidant balances were changed in fibromyalgia. Increased free radical levels may be responsible for the development of fibromyalgia. These findings may support the hypothesis of fibromyalgia as an oxidative disorder.

This is for nutritional /general information only and is not intended to diagnose, treat or cure. See your doctor for specific medical advise.

Many fullerenes with chemical tails called fullerene derivatives or functionalized fullerenes are indeed toxic but our pristine fullerenes or C[60] hydrated fullerenes discovered by Ukrainian scientists show no toxicity and no medical contra-indications after 20 years of preclinical and clinical studies. In 2012, a study at the University of Paris showed that fullerenes almost double the lifespan of rats with no toxic effects.

Safety and ToxicityMoussa et al. (1996–7)[58][59] studied the in vivo toxicity of C60 after intra-peritoneal administration of large doses. No evidence of toxicity was found and the mice tolerated a dose of 5 g/kg of body weight.

Mori et al. (2006)[60] could not find toxicity in rodents for C60 and C70 mixtures after oral administration of a dose of 2 g/kg body weight and did not observe evidence of genotoxic or mutagenic potential in vitro. Other studies could not establish the toxicity of fullerenes: on the contrary, the work of Gharbi et al. (2005)[61] suggested that aqueous C60 suspensions failing to produce acute or subacute toxicity in rodents could also protect their livers in a dose-dependent manner against free-radical damage.

In 2012, it was revealed that oral administration prolonged the lifespan of rats by nearly 100% without showing toxic effects.[62] In a more recent video interview filmed in October 2012 and placed online, Professor Moussa states that pure C60 is not toxic.[63]

A comprehensive and recent review on fullerene toxicity is given by Kolosnjaj et al. (2007).[64][65] These authors review the works on fullerene toxicity beginning in the early 1990s to present, and conclude that very little evidence gathered since the discovery of fullerenes indicate that C60 is toxic.

Studies that showed that fullerenes were toxic (2005 and 2006) proved to be flawed in design. Solvent residues in the experiments showed toxicity not the pristine fullerenes

In 2010, the Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine approved the industrial use of Concentrate Solutions of Hydrated C60 Fullerene as an antioxidant in food, fragrance and cosmetic, biotechnological and microbiological industries. Sanitary and hygienic conclusion of Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine No 05.03.02-04/89993 d/d November 19, 2010.

Researchers concluded the combination of pumpkin seed and soy germ extract can be used as a natural alternative to relieve symptoms of OAB and to improve quality of life.

- See more at: http://www.nutraceuticalsworld.com/issues/2014-07/view_peer-reviewed-research/pumpkin-seed-soy-overactive-bladder/#sthash.VyuwwjXj.dpuf

Manipulating key protein in the brain holds potential against obesity and diabetestag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73df51456970d2014-07-27T06:08:49-04:002014-07-27T06:08:49-04:00DALLAS -- A protein that controls when genes are switched on or off plays a key role in specific areas of the brain to regulate metabolism, UT Southwestern Medical Center researchers have found. The research potentially could lead to new...SmartEconomy

DALLAS -- A protein that controls when genes are switched on or off plays a key role in specific areas of the brain to regulate metabolism, UT Southwestern Medical Center researchers have found.

The research potentially could lead to new therapies to treat obesity and diabetes, since the transcription factor involved – spliced X-box binding protein 1 (Xbp1s) – appears to influence the body's sensitivity to insulin and leptin signaling. Insulin and leptin are hormones central to the body's regulation of food intake and sugar disposal, and obesity and diabetes are conditions under which the body develops resistance to their actions.

"This study identifies critical molecular mechanisms that link the brain and peripheral endocrine tissues and that ultimately contribute to the regulation of body weight and glucose metabolism," said Dr. Kevin Williams, Assistant Professor of Internal Medicine and co-first author of the study with Dr. Tiemin Liu, a postdoctoral research fellow in Internal Medicine.

Researchers found that over-expression of the gene Xbp1s in mice that were fed a high-fat diet protected them against obesity and diabetes, according to the recent study, published online in Cell Metabolism. On average, these mice were 30 percent leaner than mice fed the same food. The gene's actions took place in pro-opiomelanocortin (Pomc) neurons in the hypothalamic region of the brain. Elevated Xbp1s levels in Pomc neurons mimicked a "fed" signal, resulting in improved body weight, decreased blood glucose levels, and improved insulin sensitivity in the liver.

"Manipulating this one gene in the brain affected metabolism in the liver. This result shows that the brain is controlling glucose production by the liver," said Dr. Joel Elmquist, Director of the Division of Hypothalamic Research, Professor of Internal Medicine, Pharmacology, and Psychiatry, and holder of the Carl H. Westcott Distinguished Chair in Medical Research, and the Maclin Family Distinguished Professorship in Medical Science, in Honor of Dr. Roy A. Brinkley.

Dr. Elmquist was co-senior author of the study, along with Dr. Philipp Scherer, Director of the Touchstone Center for Diabetes Research, Professor of Internal Medicine and Cell Biology, and holder of the Gifford O. Touchstone, Jr. and Randolph G. Touchstone Distinguished Chair in Diabetes Research. No drug form of Xbp1s currently exists that could be used to test whether the gene is a target for the treatment of diabetes or obesity, though researchers see such a drug as a potential outgrowth of their research. Dr. Williams said other transcription factors involved in the same metabolic pathway will be studied to see if they have similar effects.

"We have studied one transcription factor out of many that participate in a large, complex cellular process," said Dr. Williams of Xbp1s and its role during times of cellular stress.

###

Other UT Southwestern researchers contributing to this study were co-first author Dr. Makoto Fukuda, a former postdoctoral researcher in Internal Medicine; Dr. Yingfeng Deng, Assistant Instructor of Internal Medicine; Dr. Eric Berglund, Assistant Professor of Pharmacology and part of the Advanced Imaging Research Center; Dr. Jong-Woo Sohn, former postdoctoral researcher in Internal Medicine; Dr. Lin Jia, a postdoctoral researcher in Internal Medicine; Dr. Teppei Fujikawa, Instructor of Internal Medicine; Dr. Daisuke Kohno, former postdoctoral researcher in Internal Medicine; Dr. Syann Lee, Instructor of Internal Medicine; Charlotte Lee, a senior research scientist in Internal Medicine; and Dr. Kai Sun, Instructor of Internal Medicine. The study was supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health, American Diabetes Association, American Heart Association, and the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

About UT Southwestern Medical Center

UT Southwestern, one of the premier academic medical centers in the nation, integrates pioneering biomedical research with exceptional clinical care and education. The institution's faculty includes many distinguished members, including six who have been awarded Nobel Prizes since 1985. Numbering more than 2,700, the faculty is responsible for groundbreaking medical advances and is committed to translating science-driven research quickly to new clinical treatments. UT Southwestern physicians provide medical care in 40 specialties to nearly 91,000 hospitalized patients and oversee more than 2 million outpatient visits a year.

Weekly

June 27, 2014 / 63(25);548-551

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting, and a high case-fatality rate (59%) among 49 persons (1). Specimens from 15 of 20 persons tested at Institut Pasteur in Lyon, France, were positive for an Ebola virus by polymerase chain reaction (2). Viral sequencing identified Ebola virus (species Zaïre ebolavirus), one of five viruses in the genus Ebolavirus, as the cause (2). Cases of Ebola viral disease (EVD) were initially reported in three southeastern districts (Gueckedou, Macenta, and Kissidougou) of Guinea and in the capital city of Conakry. By March 30, cases had been reported in Foya district in neighboring Liberia (1), and in May, the first cases identified in Sierra Leone were reported. As of June 18, the outbreak was the largest EVD outbreak ever documented, with a combined total of 528 cases (including laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspected cases) and 337 deaths (case-fatality rate = 64%) reported in the three countries. The largest previous outbreak occurred in Uganda during 2000–2001, when 425 cases were reported with 224 deaths (case-fatality rate = 53%) (3). The current outbreak also represents the first outbreak of EVD in West Africa (a single case caused by Taï Forest virus was reported in Côte d'Ivoire in 1994 [3]) and marks the first time that Ebola virus transmission has been reported in a capital city.

Abstract

Bats provide vital ecologic services that humans benefit from, such as seed dispersal and pest control, and are a food source for some human populations. However, bats also are reservoirs for a number of high-consequence zoonoses, including paramyxoviruses, filoviruses, and lyssaviruses. The variety of viruses that bats harbor might be related to their evolutionary diversity, ability to fly large distances, long lifespans, and gregarious roosting behaviors. Every year a festival takes place in Idanre, Nigeria, in which males of all ages enter designated caves to capture bats; persons are forbidden from entering the caves outside of these festivities. Festival participants use a variety of techniques to capture bats, but protective equipment rarely is used, placing hunters at risk for bat scratches and bites. Many captured bats are prepared as food, but some are transported to markets in other parts of the country for sale as bushmeat. Bats also are presented to dignitaries in elaborate rituals. The health consequences of contact with these bats are unknown, but a number of viruses have been previously identified among Nigerian bats, including lyssaviruses, pegiviruses, and coronaviruses. Furthermore, the caves are home to Rousettus aegyptiacus bats, which are reservoirs for Marburg virus in other parts of Africa.

*************

Cytotoxic and antiviral properties of fullerene C60 in the culture of animal cells

One of the urgent problems of modern veterinary biotechnology is to solve the complex task that lies at the intersection of chemistry, physics, materials science, biology, veterinary medicine is focused design, synthesis and study of the functional properties of nanomaterials which characterized by high bioavailability and biocompatibility, low toxicity and high specific biological activity.

In our studies, was used C60 fullerene - fullerene in water-soluble form. This compound molecule is nearly spherical, with a diameter of 0.72 nm , the surface of which consists of 60 carbon atoms connected by single or double chemical called " links. Considered that C60- fullerenes are potential pharmaceutical compounds. However, along with a broad perspective on the use of such substances for the prevention and treatment of diseases, there are certain precautions, particularly with regard to the possible toxic effects on biological objects, including on cell.

Therefore, our research started with the determination of cytotoxic properties of C60 fullerene - on cell line BHK -21, which is continuous line origin from Syrian hamster and which is used in many medical and biological research.

In experiments used at least ten holes in plates with cell culture for each drug dilution in culture medium. The plates with cell culture incubated at +37˚ C with 5% СО2 for 96 hours.

Thus, we have found the maximum cytotoxic concentration of compound that was 0,0375 ±0,003 mg/ml (n=3,).

Determined the antiviral activity of C60 - fullerene, using as a biological model coronovirus (virus of transmissible gastroenteritis of swine). Coronoviruses affect both animals and humans, leading in many cases to a high degree of mortality. Investigation of antiviral activity of fullerene on transmissible gastroenteritis virus of swine in the system in vitro, n = 5 (each concentration: 0,15 , 0,075, 0,0375, 0,019, 0,009, 0,005 was tested in 10 holes).

We found that C60-fullerene reduced the infectious properties of the virus by 2.0 TCID 50/ml which is a significant result.

Therefore, preliminary data suggest recommend this compound for further preclinical and clinical studies.

Summary. Aim: To estimate the impact of C60 fullerene aqueous solution (C60FAS) on the rate of transplanted malignant tumor growth and metastasis. Methods: Lewis lung carcinoma was transplanted into С57Bl/6J male mice. Conventional methods for the evaluation of antitumor and antimetastatic effects have been used. Results: The C60FAS at low single therapeutic dose of 5 mg/kg inhibited the growth of transplanted malignant tumor (antitumor effect) and metastasis (antimetastatic effect): the maximum therapeutic effect was found to be of 76.5% for the tumor growth inhibition; the increase of animal life span by 22% was found; the metastasis inhibition index was estimated as 48%. Conclusion: It was found that water-soluble pristine С60 fullerenes efficiently inhibit the transplanted malignant tumor growth and metastasis

Oxidative stress plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), a devastating disease of the elderly. The brain is more vulnerable than other organs to oxidative stress, and most of the components of neurons (lipids, proteins, and nucleic acids) can be oxidized in AD due to mitochondrial dysfunction, increased metal levels, inflammation, and β-amyloid (Aβ) peptides. Oxidative stress participates in the development of AD by promoting Aβ deposition, tau hyperphosphorylation, and the subsequent loss of synapses and neurons. The relationship between oxidative stress and AD suggests that oxidative stress is an essential part of the pathological process, and antioxidants may be useful for AD treatment.

PMID:

24664866

[PubMed - in process]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24664866

Molecular snapshots of oxygen formation in photosynthesistag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a3fd30b1dc970b2014-07-13T00:52:30-04:002014-07-13T00:55:55-04:00[2014-07-10] Researchers from Umeå University have explored two different ways that allow unprecedented experimental insights into the reaction sequence leading to the formation of oxygen molecules in photosynthesis. The two studies have been published in the scientific journal Nature Communications....SmartEconomy

[2014-07-10] Researchers from Umeå University have explored two different ways that allow unprecedented experimental insights into the reaction sequence leading to the formation of oxygen molecules in photosynthesis. The two studies have been published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

"The new knowledge will help improving present day synthetic catalysts for water oxidation, which are key components for building artificial leaf devices for the direct storage of solar energy in fuels like hydrogen, ethanol or methanol," says Johannes Messinger, Professor in Biological Chemistry and leader of the Artificial photosynthesis research group at Umeå University.

Every child learns at school that the oxygen we breathe is produced by photosynthesis in plants and by cyanobacteria that live in lakes and the oceans. However, exactly how that happens is still under intense research.

Oxygen formation in photosynthesis occurs in a reaction sequence that is completed within one thousandth of a second. Thus, it is not surprising that it has been so difficult to prove experimentally how precisely a catalyst consisting of four manganese ions and one calcium ion (Mn4Ca cluster) performs this reaction sequence in photosystem II. Almost all molecular details we presently ‘know’ about the last critical steps are based on calculations. Johannes Messinger and his research group at Umeå University have now explored two different ways for obtaining experimental insight into the mechanism of oxygen formation.

In the first study, the researchers slowed down the reaction sequence more than 40-times by exchanging the calcium of the cluster against strontium, and a nearby chloride ion against an iodide ion.

"We could show that in the last short-lived intermediate state before oxygen formation, the two water molecules are ‘arrested’, meaning that they are more than 1000-times more tightly bound to the Mn4Ca cluster than in all earlier states of the reaction. This stabilization is thought to be caused by a previously reported loss of a proton and to reflect a highly ordered arrangement that is required for the fast and energy efficient formation of oxygen from water."

The result was obtained using oxygen isotopic labelling and time-resolved membrane inlet mass spectrometry.

"With this technique we studied the same reaction sequence and we obtained ‘snap shots’ of the structure of the atoms for the different states of the cluster, including the short lived state investigated in the first study."

The data show that no large scale structural changes (> 0.5·10−10 m) occur in the Mn4Ca cluster and the rest of the photosystem II complex during oxygen formation. The simultaneously collected X-ray emission data confirm that the “arresting” of the two bound water molecules, as observed in the mass spectrometric experiments, is not due to a change in the charge (oxidation state) of the manganese ions of the Mn4Ca cluster, nor to the formation of a first bond between the oxygen atoms of the two water molecules.

"The study suggests that small structural changes occur together with the proton release, but we still need to further improve the resolution of our data to see exactly what happens."

The first study was performed in collaboration with two French researchers. The second study was performed within an international team of more than 40 researchers.

Artificial photosynthesis:

In the search for a clean and renewable energy source researchers at Umeå University are studying photosynthesis with the purpose to create artificial photosynthesis devices. Their aim is to understand and model the complex reactions that take place in plant chloroplasts during photosynthesis in order to mimic natural photosynthesis in an “artificial leaf”, an integrated unit that connects all important processes. If successful, it will be possible to convert water with the help of sunlight directly into oxygen and environmentally friendly energy carriers, for example into hydrogen gas.

A first direct glimpse of photosynthesis in actiontag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73debb940970d2014-07-13T00:51:35-04:002014-07-13T00:51:35-04:00PUBLIC RELEASE DATE: 11-Jul-2014 Contact: Dr. John Wray wray@mpimf-heidelberg.mpg.de 49-622-148-6277 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Researchers visualize the processes by which photosynthetic proteins split water into hydrogen and oxygen An international team of researchers, including scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Medical Research...SmartEconomy

Researchers visualize the processes by which photosynthetic proteins split water into hydrogen and oxygen

An international team of researchers, including scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Medical Research in Heidelberg, has just a reported a major step in understanding photosynthesis, the process by which the Earth first gained and now maintains the oxygen in its atmosphere and which is therefore crucial for all higher forms of life on earth.

The researchers report the first direct visualization of a crucial event in the photosynthetic reaction, namely the step in which a specific protein complex, photosystem II, splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using energy provided by light. This is a catalytic process in which the molecules of photosystem II enable and promote the reaction without themselves being consumed. Given the very high sensitivity of photosystem II to radiation damage, the photosynthetic reaction cannot be followed by standard methods of structural investigation such as conventional time-resolved X-ray crystallography. It is, however, amenable to study using the very recently developed method of protein crystallography with free-electron lasers.

In this technique, exceedingly short but extremely intense pulses of X-rays are used to gather data from very small crystals. The pulses are so short, in fact, that they "outrun" most effects of radiation damage, including the complete annihilation of the sample that inevitably follows on much longer time scales. The technique is thus well suited for collecting data from highly sensitive systems such as this catalyzed splitting of water in photosynthesis. Crucial to the process is a special site within the photosystem-II-molecule that contains four manganese atoms and one calcium atom. The experimental measurements show large structural changes in this particular metal cluster, which elongates significantly.

The measurements were made at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in Stanford, using the short and intense flashes from SLAC's X-ray laser, the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). The international team from 18 different institutions was led by Petra Fromme (Arizona State University) and included, in addition to the Heidelberg group, members from SLAC and the University of Hamburg. The Heidelberg team contributed expertise on injecting a thick slurry (suspension) of crystals as a micron-sized jet of particles to be intersected by the femtosecond X-ray pulses from the free electron laser. Crucial to this injection was the design, manufacture and operation of a temperature-controlled, anti-settling device to allow uninterrupted sample injection over the course of many hours.

This work is significant not only for its direct relevance to understanding photosynthesis, but also because it directly proves the feasibility of performing dynamic X-ray diffraction measurements at room temperature - in particular using free-electron lasers - to study mechanisms of the fast enzyme reactions that are characteristic of so many processes in living organisms.

Japanese gold leaf artists worked on a nano-scale - a non-destructive way to date artworktag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a3fd2a483d970b2014-07-02T20:38:58-04:002014-07-02T20:38:58-04:00Study demonstrates X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy is a non-destructive way to date artwork Ancient Japanese gold leaf artists were truly masters of their craft. An analysis of six ancient Namban paper screens show that these artifacts are gilded with gold leaf...SmartEconomy

Study demonstrates X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy is a non-destructive way to date artwork

Ancient Japanese gold leaf artists were truly masters of their craft. An analysis of six ancient Namban paper screens show that these artifacts are gilded with gold leaf that was hand-beaten to the nanometer scale. Study leader Sofia Pessanha of the Atomic Physics Center of the University of Lisbon in Portugal believes that the X-ray fluorescence technique her team used in the analysis could also be used to date other artworks without causing any damage to them. The results are published in Springer’s journal Applied Physics A: Material Science and Processing.

Gold leaf refers to a very thin sheet made from a combination of gold and other metals. It has almost no weight and can only be handled by specially designed tools. Even though the ancient Egyptians were probably the first to gild artwork with it, the Japanese have long been credited as being able to produce the thinnest gold leaf in the world. In Japanese traditional painting, decorating with gold leaf is named Kin-haku, and the finest examples of this craft are the Namban folding screens, or byobu. These were made during the late Momoyama (around 1573 to 1603) and early Edo (around 1603 to 1868) periods.

Pessanha’s team examined six screens that are currently either part of a museum collection or in a private collection in Portugal. Four screens belong to the Momoyama period, and two others were decorated during the early Edo period. The researchers used various X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy techniques to test the thickness and characteristics of the gold layers. The method is completely non-invasive, no samples needed to be taken, and therefore the artwork was not damaged in any way. Also, the apparatus needed to perform these tests is portable and can be done outside of a laboratory.

The gilding was evaluated by taking the attenuation or weakening of the different characteristic lines of gold leaf layers into account. The methodology was tested to be suitable for high grade gold alloys with a maximum of 5 percent influence of silver, which is considered negligible.

The two screens from the early Edo period were initially thought to be of the same age. However, Pessanha’s team found that gold leaf on a screen kept at Museu Oriente in Lisbon was thinner, hence was made more recently. This is in line with the continued development of the gold beating techniques carried out in an effort to obtain ever thinner gold leaf.

“This simple comparison allowed establishing a timeline between the manufacture of two pieces attributed to the same period, proving that X-ray fluorescence techniques can be an important asset in the dating of artworks,” says Pessanha.

The role of carbon in the development of life and as the structural backbone of all organisms is universally accepted and an essential part of evolution. However, the molecular basis is largely unknown and the interactions of carbon with nitrogen and oxygen in space are enigmatic. In 1985, the previously unknown form of carbon, coined fullerene, was discovered. We hypothesize that by virtue of the unique properties of fullerene, this hollow, ultra-robust, large, purely carbon molecule was the earliest progenitor of life. It acted as a stable universal biologic template on which small molecules spontaneously assembled and then formed, by further assembly, a surface mantle (here termed rosasome) of larger molecules. We submit that this process, by its inherent flexibility, initiated evolution, allowing the emergence of parallel diverse rosasome lines responding selectively to varying spatial environments. For example, rosasomal lines mantled with nucleotide and peptide layers are conceived as primordial forerunners of the ubiquitous ribosome. Moreover, the parallel independent and interdependent evolution of rosasome lines would be more rapid than sequential development, refute precedence of either DNA or RNA, and explain the evolution of integration of two subunits with different structures and functions in ribosomes and of the triplet nature of the codon. Based on recent astronomical data, this hypothesis supports the concept that life is not a singularity. This concept also suggests a potential vehicle for therapeutics, biotechnology and genetic engineering.

Rheumatoid arthritis and oxidative stress

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease characterized by chronic inflammation of the joints and tissue around the joints with infiltration of macrophages and activated T cells (4, 25, 26). The pathogenesis of this disease is due to the generation of ROS and RNS at the site of inflammation. Oxidative damage and inflammation in various rheumatic diseases were proved by increased levels of isoprostanes and prostaglandins in serum and synovial fluid compared to controls (26).

Abstract

Free radicals have an important role in the pathogenesis of knee osteoarthritis. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced by abnormal chondrocyte metabolism exceeds the physiological buffering capacity and results in oxidative stress. The excessive production of ROS can damage proteins, lipids, nucleic acids, and matrix components. They also serve as important intracellular signaling molecules that amplify the inflammatory response. An understanding of oxidative stress involved in this disease might allow the use of antioxidant therapies in the prevention and/or treatment of knee osteoarthritis.

Cellular and animal studies suggest that oxidative stress could be the central defect underlying both beta-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. A reduction of glycemic stress in diabetic patients on therapy alleviates systemic oxidative stress and improves insulin resistance and beta-cell secretion. Monitoring oxidative stress systematically with glucose can potentially identify an individual's recovery trajectory. To determine a quantitative model of serial changes in oxidative stress, as measured via the antioxidant glutathione, we followed patients newly diagnosed with diabetes over 8 weeks of starting anti-diabetic treatment. We developed a mathematical model which shows recovery is marked with a quantal response. For each individual the model predicts three theoretical quantities: an estimate of maximal glutathione at low stress, a glucose threshold for half-maximal glutathione, and a rate at which recovery progresses. Individual patients are seen to vary considerably in their response to glucose control. Thus, model estimates can potentially be used to determine whether an individual patient's response is better or worse than average in terms of each of these indices; they can therefore be useful in reassessing treatment strategy. We hypothesize that this method can aid the personalization of effective targets of glucose control in anti-diabetic therapy.

Scientists develop a 'nanosubmarine' that delivers complementary molecules inside cellstag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a511d52c8c970c2014-06-25T22:54:20-04:002014-06-25T22:54:20-04:00Researchers at the University of Miami and the University of Ulster have created nanoparticles that can transport interacting molecules into living cells. VIDEO: Francisco Raymo discusses his work in this video. Click here for more information. CORAL GABLES, Fla. (June...SmartEconomy

Researchers at the University of Miami and the University of Ulster have created nanoparticles that can transport interacting molecules into living cells.

CORAL GABLES, Fla. (June 25, 2014) — With the continuing need for very small devices in therapeutic applications, there is a growing demand for the development of nanoparticles that can transport and deliver drugs to target cells in the human body.

Recently, researchers created nanoparticles that under the right conditions, self-assemble – trapping complementary guest molecules within their structure. Like tiny submarines, these versatile nanocarriers can navigate in the watery environment surrounding cells and transport their guest molecules through the membrane of living cells to sequentially deliver their cargo.

Although the transport of molecules inside cells with nanoparticles has been previously achieved using various methods, researchers have developed nanoparticles capable of delivering and exchanging complementary molecules. For practical applications, these nanocarriers are highly desirable, explains Francisco Raymo, professor of chemistry in the University of Miami College of Arts and Sciences and lead investigator of this project.

"The ability to deliver distinct species inside cells independently and force them to interact, exclusively in the intracellular environment, can evolve into a valuable strategy to activate drugs inside cells," Raymo says.

The new nanocarriers are15 nanometers in diameter. They are supramolecular constructs made up of building blocks called amphiphilic polymers. These nanocarriers hold the guest molecules within the confines of their water-insoluble interior and use their water-soluble exterior to travel through an aqueous environment. As a result, these nanovehicles are ideal for transferring molecules that would otherwise be insoluble in water, across a liquid environment.

IMAGE: The sequential transport of donors and acceptors across cell membranes with independent and dynamic nanocarriers enables energy transfer exclusively in the intracellular space with concomitant fluorescence activation.

"Once inside a living cell, the particles mix and exchange their cargo. This interaction enables the energy transfer between the internalized molecules," says Raymo, director of the UM laboratory for molecular photonics. "If the complementary energy donors and acceptors are loaded separately and sequentially, the transfer of energy between them occurs exclusively within the intracellular space," he says. "As the energy transfer takes place, the acceptors emit a fluorescent signal that can be observed with a microscope."

Essential to this mechanism are the noncovalent bonds that loosely hold the supramolecular constructs together. These weak bonds exist between molecules with complementary shapes and electronic properties. They are responsible for the ability of the supramolecules to assemble spontaneously in liquid environments. Under the right conditions, the reversibility of these weak noncovalent contacts allows the supramolecular constructs to exchange their components as well as their cargo.

The experiments were conducted with cell cultures. It is not yet known if the nanoparticles can actually travel through the bloodstream.

"That would be the dream, but we have no evidence that they can actually do so," Raymo says. "However, this is the direction we are heading."

The next phase of this investigation involves demonstrating that this method can be used to do chemical reactions inside cells, instead of energy transfers.

"The size of these nanoparticles, their dynamic character and the fact that the reactions take place under normal biological conditions (at ambient temperature and neutral environment) makes these nanoparticles an ideal vehicle for the controlled activation of therapeutics, directly inside the cells," Raymo says.

IMAGE: The sequential transport of donors and acceptors across cell membranes with independent and dynamic nanocarriers enables energy transfer exclusively in the intracellular space with concomitant fluorescence activation.

The current study is titled "Intracellular guest exchange between dynamic supramolecular hosts." It's published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society. Other authors are John F. Callan, co-corresponding author of the study, from the School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences at the University of Ulster; Subramani Swaminathan and Janet Cusido from the UM's Laboratory for Molecular Photonics, Department of Chemistry in the College of Arts and Sciences; and Colin Fowley and Bridgeen McCuaghan, School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences at the University of Ulster.

The University of Miami's mission is to educate and nurture students, to create knowledge, and to provide service to our community and beyond. Committed to excellence and proud of our diversity of our University family, we strive to develop future leaders of our nation and the world.

Sequencing efforts miss extrachromosomal DNA (phages and plasmids) crucial to bacteria's disease causing powertag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a511d524c2970c2014-06-25T21:47:20-04:002014-06-25T21:47:20-04:00Genomic sequencing is supposed to reveal the entire genetic makeup of an organism. For infectious disease specialists, the technology can be used to analyze a disease-causing bacterium to determine how much harm it is capable of causing and whether or...SmartEconomy

Genomic sequencing is supposed to reveal the entire genetic makeup of an organism. For infectious disease specialists, the technology can be used to analyze a disease-causing bacterium to determine how much harm it is capable of causing and whether or not it will be resistant to antibiotics. But new research at Rockefeller University suggests that current sequencing protocols overlook crucial bits of information: isolated pieces of DNA floating outside the bacterial chromosome, the core of a cell's genetic material.

"Extensive sequencing of chromosomal DNA has been performed for a variety of pathogenic organisms, but these sequences fail to uncover the presence of DNA elements in the cell's cytoplasm. As a result, the DNA profile of a pathogenic bacteria may be incomplete," says Vincent Fischetti, head of the Laboratory of Bacterial Pathogenesis and Immunology. "We have now devised a way to identify these elements."

Extrachromosomal DNA can include bacteria-infecting viruses, known as phages, and strands of self-replicating DNA, known as plasmids, often picked up from other bacteria. These phages and plasmids can easily move between bacterial cells, and scientists have known for some time that, as a result, these so-called mobile genetic elements can play important roles in virulence and antibiotic resistance.

This study focused on phages. Their activity outside the chromosomes has been poorly studied; most research has focused on phages integrated into bacterial chromosomes. Meanwhile, plasmids, which allow bacteria to share genes among themselves, are well studied.

"So far, no one has looked across a variety of strains of bacteria, as we have done with Staphylococcus aureus, to find these extrachromosomal phages that have potential to play an important role in disease," says Bryan Utter a postdoc in the lab and the first author of the research published June 25 in PLoS ONE. Staphylococcus is a common bacterium that can cause serious or even fatal infections under certain circumstances.

Until now, an analysis of this scope wasn't possible, because chromosomal DNA easily fragments and contaminates the sample during the process by which researchers prepare the extrachromosomal DNA, making them virtually impossible to identify and sequence.

"To solve this problem, we borrowed a tool from phages themselves: the enzymes these viruses use to break apart a phage-infected cell to release their progeny," says Douglas Deutsch, a graduate student in the lab. These enzymes, a focus of research in the lab in the development of novel anti-infectives, are now being harnessed to gently extract the chromosomal DNA, while leaving behind any other genetic elements for analysis. Using this technique, they looked for extrachromosomal phages across 24 medically important strains of Staphylococci.

Not only did extrachromosomal phages appear widespread among these strains, but the researchers found evidence that these phages encode genes that can make the bacteria more dangerous.

For example, when the researchers decoded the complete sequence of one extrachromosomal circular phage from a disease-causing Staphylococcus, they identified a number of genes that may help this strain evade a host's immune system and that could readily spread to other Staphylococcus bacteria. The researchers are now studying what role, if any, these viral genes play in this strain's ability to cause disease.

The implications go beyond pathogenicity. Phage elements, including those not integrated into chromosomes, are part of a bacterial system for regulating genes. For instance, some of these phage elements can activate or silence bacterial genes by moving into or out of the chromosome. Within the Staphylococcus strains, the researchers found both transient elements as well as those residing permanently outside the chromosomes.

"By examining the DNA outside the bacterial chromosomes, you may get a better understanding of the dynamics by which these elements may mobilize thereby controlling microbial genes," Fischetti says.

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Team unearths what may be secret weapon against antibiotic resistancetag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a73de0719c970d2014-06-25T21:03:23-04:002014-06-25T21:04:11-04:00Enlarge A photo of the fungus Aspergillus versicolor. Credit: McMaster University A fungus living in the soils of Nova Scotia could offer new hope in the pressing battle against drug-resistant germs that kill tens of thousands of people every year,...SmartEconomy

A photo of the fungus Aspergillus versicolor. Credit: McMaster University

A fungus living in the soils of Nova Scotia could offer new hope in the pressing battle against drug-resistant germs that kill tens of thousands of people every year, including one considered a serious global threat.

A team of researchers led by McMaster University has discovered a fungus-derived molecule, known as AMA (Aspergillomarasmine A), which is able to disarm one of the most dangerous antibiotic-resistance genes: NDM-1 or New Delhi Metallo-beta-Lactamase-1, identified by the World Health Organization as a global public health threat.

"This is public enemy number one," explains Gerry Wright, director of the Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research at McMaster University.

"It came out of nowhere, it has spread everywhere and has basically killed our last resource of antibiotics, the last pill on the shelf, used to treat serious infections," he says.

Discovering the properties of the fungus-derived molecule is critical because it can provide a means to target and rapidly block the drug-resistant pathogens that render carbapenem antibiotics—a class of drugs similar to penicillin—ineffective.

"Simply put, the molecule knocks out NDM-1 so the antibiotics can do their job," says Wright.

Seeking an answer to the riddle of resistance in the natural environment is a far more promising approach than trying to discover new antibiotics, a challenge which has perplexed scientists for decades. No new classes of antibiotics have been discovered since the late 1980s, leaving physicians with very few tools to fight life-threatening infections.

"Not only do we have the emergence of an antibiotic resistance gene that is targeting the last drug resource we have left, but it is carried by organisms that cause all sorts of challenging diseases and are multi-drug-resistant already. It has been found not only in clinics but in the environment—in contaminated water in South Asia—which has contributed to its spread over the globe," explains Wright. "Our thinking was that if we could find a molecule that blocks NDM-1 then these antibiotics would be useful again."

Wright and his team from McMaster, University of British Columbia and Cardiff University in Wales created a sophisticated screening method to take the NDM-1 gene, combine it with harmless E. coli bacteria and then isolate a molecule capable of stopping NDM-1 in its tracks.

UNM scientists partner with Danish researchers and get some surprising results

By Michael Haederle — June 23, 2014

Pope Moseley, MD, chair of UNM’s Department of Internal Medicine and Tudor Oprea, MD, PhD, professor of Internal Medicine and chief of UNM’s Translational Informatics Division, collaborated with Danish researchers to test a powerful new meithod for predicting the progress of common diseases over time.

Epidemiologists know that an important piece of evidence is often staring you in the face – but it’s not always easy to see the forest for the trees.

Danish scientists recently teamed up with University of New Mexico researchers to test a powerful new method for predicting the progress of common diseases through time by teasing out previously undetected patterns from a very large data set – in this case, the health records of Denmark’s entire population.

This approach maps out surprising correlations: a disease like gout – a form of arthritis – is strongly linked to cardiovascular disease, for example. In the future, this could enable physicians to make diagnoses sooner using simple tests in combination with known disease progression patterns.

Pope Moseley, MD, chair of UNM’s Department of Internal Medicine and Tudor Oprea, MD, PhD, professor of Internal Medicine and chief of UNM’s Translational Informatics Division, collaborated with researchers from the Department of Systems Biology at the Technical University of Denmark, the Novo Nordisk Center for Protein Research at the University of Copenhagen and the Institute of Biological Psychiatry at Copenhagen University Hospital.

“This is a leap into a fairly large data base,” Moseley says. “This method is able to recognize patterns in data that not only include diagnostic patterns, but includes the element of time and is able to build networks from that.”

Denmark’s electronic health registry covers that nation’s entire population, with each person assigned a health number, Moseley says. Each medical diagnosis is coded in the registry using the International Classification of Diseases terminology – 101 million unique diagnoses in all.

“Every diagnosis on every Dane from every hospitalization and outpatient clinic visit is entered into the national health registry for the last 14 years,” he says. “You’re able to take these mass of data and look at it over time and begin to draw associations.”

The team boiled down the massive trove of data to 1,171 so-called thoroughfares with central information on the course of diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cancer, arthritis and cardiovascular disease.

Lead author Anders Boeck Jensen says this data analysis method made it possible to view diseases in a larger context.

“Instead of looking at each disease in isolation, you can talk about a complex system with many different interacting factors,” says Jensen, a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for Protein Research. “By looking at the order in which different diseases appear, you can start to draw patterns and see complex correlations outlining the direction for each individual person.”

Oprea points out an additional advantage of the data-mining method. “The disease trajectories in this study follow causal relationships that were identified by a medically agnostic software,” he says. “This illustrates the power of data mining as a means to uncover novel disease relationships and its ability to inform the health care sector about new avenues in patient management.”

The data analysis showed, for example, that a diagnosis of anemia is typically followed months later by the discovery of colon cancer, Oprea says, “which suggests that cancer lesions were present and occult bleeding occurred, but remained undiagnosed.”

Meanwhile, in addition to identifying gout as a step on the path toward cardiovascular disease, the team made surprising findings about COPD.

“In just looking at these codes that were based on age and gender and where the code was done, we were able to say that COPD is diagnosed late,” Moseley says. “It’s therefore under-diagnosed and probably because of that undertreated. All we have is this diagnostic code, but our analysis of the pattern said that.”

That finding received unexpected support last February when another team published a paper on a large epidemiological study of 6,000 Danish COPD patients, each of whom was interviewed and subjected to extensive examination, laboratory review and testing.

“Their conclusion is COPD is diagnosed late, under-diagnosed and undertreated,” Moseley says. “We were able to come to the same conclusions without ever having gone the other way. We essentially did the experiment with a computer out of a health registry.”

The research could yield tangible health benefits as we move beyond one-size-fits-all medicine, says Prof. Lars Juhl Jensen of the Center for Protein Research.

“The perspective is that your genetic profile or the total network of associated proteins in your body, your proteome, can be mapped in a few years’ time, enabling you to suddenly learn things about yourself which can be used to forecast the progress of diseases over an entire lifetime,” he says.

Søren Brunak, a professor at the Technical University of Denmark and Center for Protein Research who served as senior author on the paper, adds that the sooner a health risk pattern is identified, “the better we can prevent and treat critical diseases.”

Moseley describes the partnership with the Danes as “a really very nice marriage . . . it’s a strong informatics and systems biology collaboration.” Going forward, he hopes to access the data for even larger populations.

“The author Williams Gibson said something like, ‘Everything we need to know about the future is here, now – you just have to be able to recognize the pattern,’” Moseley says. “Never was it more true.”

Cancer: The roots of evil go deep in timetag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a3fd24840d970b2014-06-24T11:17:13-04:002014-06-24T11:17:48-04:00Discovery of a primordial cancer in a primitive animal Every year around 450,000 people in Germany are diagnosed with cancer. Each one of them dreams of a victory in the battle against it. But can cancer ever be completely defeated?...SmartEconomy

Discovery of a primordial cancer in a primitive animal

Every year around 450,000 people in Germany are diagnosed with cancer. Each one of them dreams of a victory in the battle against it. But can cancer ever be completely defeated? Researchers at Kiel University (CAU) have now reached a sobering conclusion: "cancer is as old as multi-cellular life on earth and will probably never be completely eradicated", says Professor Thomas Bosch in his latest research results. The study by an international team led by Bosch was published today (Monday, June 24) in the prestigious scientific journal Nature Communications.

The so-called cancer genes are ancient

The causes of tumours are the so-called cancer genes. As from when evolution started producing tumours is an issue that the scientists Tomislav Domazet-Lošo and Diethard Tautz from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology in Plön have been investigating for several years, using bio-informational methods and databases that they have developed in-house. "During the search for the origin of the cancer gene, we unexpectedly made a discovery in the ancient group of animals", explains Domazet-Lošo. He is one of the authors of the present study and is currently working at the Ruder Bošković Institute and the Catholic University of Croatia in Zagreb. "Our data predicted that the first multi-cellular animals already had most of the genes which can cause cancer in humans." What was missing until now was, on the one hand, evidence that these animals can actually suffer from tumours and, on the other, the molecular understanding of the mechanisms of tumour formation in these simple animals.

Cause of tumours: error in the programming of cell death

The research team led by the evolutionary biologist Professor Thomas Bosch from the Zoological Institute of Kiel University have now achieved an impressive understanding of the roots of cancer. Bosch has been investigating stem cells and the regulation of tissue growth in Hydra, a phylogenetic old polyp, for many years. "Now we have discovered tumour-bearing polyps in two different species of Hydra, an organism very similar to corals", emphasises Bosch regarding the first result of the new study. This provides proof that tumours indeed exist in primitive and evolutionary old animals.

The team also tracked down the cellular cause of the tumours along the entire body axis. For the first time they were able to show that the stem cells, which are programmed for sex differentiation, accumulate in large quantities and are not removed naturally by programmed cell death. Interestingly, these tumours affect only female Hydra polyps and resemble ovarian cancers in humans.

"When undertaking more detailed molecular analyses of the tumours we found a gene that becomes active dramatically in tumour tissue and that normally prevents the programmed cell death", explains Alexander Klimovich, a scholarship student at the Alexander-von-Humboldt Foundation at the Zoological Institute of Kiel University and co-lead author of the current study regarding the second finding of the study. "As a non-functioning cell death mechanism is also made responsible for the growth and spread of tumours in many types of human cancer, striking similarities appear here to cancer in humans", continues Klimovich.

The third finding of the scientists was to show that tumour cells are invasive. This means that if tumour cells are introduced into a healthy organism, they can trigger tumour growth there. Therefore Bosch reaches the following conclusion from his research into Hydra species: "The invasive characteristic of cancer cells is also an evolutionary old feature."

Tumours have deep roots in evolution

The funds that are being deployed throughout the world in the campaign against cancer are enormous. It was estimated that in the US alone, more than 500 billion dollars were invested in cancer research by 2012. The worldwide research has led to improved preventative, diagnostic and treatment methods, which can definitely record successes. However it is precisely as far as some frequent tumours are concerned where only slow progress has been achieved. Every second person affected by cancer still succumbs to the disease today. In Germany alone every fourth person dies of cancer and this trend is rising. (World Cancer Report 2014) These figures were an incentive for the National Institute of Health in the US to launch a network of Physical Science-Oncology Centers, a new initiative that seeks to bridge intellectual barriers between diverse scientific disciplines. Paul Davies, a well-known theoretical physicist and popular science writer who now leads one such center in Phoenix, Arizona, recently concluded: "Clearly, we will fully understand cancer only in the context of biological history." (The Guardian, 2012)

According to the research team led by Bosch, the findings of primordial tumours in Hydra are a breakthrough step in that direction: "Our research reconfirms that primordial animals such as Hydra polyps provide an enormous amount of information to help us understand such complex problems as 'cancer'. Our study also makes it unlikely that the 'War on Cancer' proclaimed in the 1970s can ever be won. However, knowing your enemy from it origins is the best way to fight it, and win many battles", says Bosch.

UT Arlington physics researchers may have developed a way to use laser technology to deliver drug and gene therapy at the cellular level without damaging surrounding tissue. The method eventually could help patients suffering from genetic conditions, cancers and neurological diseases.

In a study published recently by the journal Nature Scientific Reports, the team paired crystalline magnetic carbon nanoparticles and continuous wave near-infrared laser beams for in what is called photothermal delivery. Authors of the new paper are Ali Koymen, a professor of physics; Samarendra Mohanty, an assistant professor of physics; and Ling Gu, a researcher in Mohanty’s lab.

The new discovery grew out of previous study where Koymen and Mohanty used a 50 to 100 milliwatt laser and the same carbon nanoparticle, which absorbs the beam, to heat up and destroy cancer cells in the lab. The team used the new photothermal delivery method in lab experiments to introduce impermeable dyes and small DNA molecules into human prostate cancer and fibroblast sarcoma cells.

“In this work, Dr. Mohanty used a lower power, 20 to 30 milliwatt, continuous wave near-infrared laser and the nanoparticle to permeate the cell membrane without killing the cells. This method stretches the desired cell membrane to allow for delivery and has the added bonus of creating a fluid flow that speeds the movement of what is being delivered,” said Koymen, whose lab created the study’s crystalline magnetic carbon nanoparticle using an electric plasma discharge inside a toulene solution.

Introducing foreign DNA or other small molecules directly into cells is essential for some of the most advanced methods being developed in gene therapy, vaccinations, cancer imaging and other medical treatments. Currently, the predominant practice is using viruses for delivery to cells. Unfortunately, the scope of what can be delivered with viruses is severely limited and virus interaction can lead to inflammatory responses and other complications.

Scientists looking to create a path into the cell without employing a virus also have experimented with using UV-visible light laser beams alone. But that method damages surrounding cells and has a relatively shallow level of effectiveness.

A significant advantage of the new method is that the near-infrared light absorption of the nanoparticle can be used to selectively amplify interaction of low power laser with targeted tissue and “laser induced-damage to non-targeted cells along the irradiation path can be avoided,” the report says. The magnetic properties of the nanoparticles also mean they can be localized with an external magnetic field; therefore a smaller concentration can be used effectively.

“Research universities like UT Arlington encourage faculty and students to follow each new discovery with even deeper questions,” said Pamela Jansma, dean of the UT Arlington College of Science. “With their latest publication, Drs. Koymen, Mohanty and Gu have taken their collaboration to a new level as they keep building toward valuable implications for human health and disease treatment.”

Carbon nanoparticles produced for the cancer study varied from five to 20 nanometers wide. A human hair is about 100,000 nanometers wide. The magnetic carbon nanoparticles also are fluorescent. So, they can be used to enhance contrast of optical imaging of tumors along with that of MRI.

Mohanty’s lab is supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation.

About UT Arlington

The University of Texas at Arlington is a comprehensive research institution and the second largest institution in The University of Texas System. The Chronicle of Higher Education ranked UT Arlington as the seventh fastest-growing public research university in 2013. U.S. News & World Report ranks UT Arlington fifth in the nation for undergraduate diversity. Visit www.uta.edu to learn more.

- See more at: http://www.uta.edu/news/releases/2014/06/koymen-mohanty-paper.php#sthash.tqWlYumR.dpuf

Gut microbe levels are linked to type 2 diabetes and obesitytag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8341ed85853ef01a3fd2435ba970b2014-06-23T23:07:36-04:002014-06-23T23:07:36-04:00CHICAGO, IL — People with Type 2 diabetes or obesity have changes in the composition of their intestinal micro-organisms—called the gut microbiota—that healthy people do not have, researchers from Turkey have found. They presented the results Sunday at the joint...SmartEconomy

CHICAGO, IL — People with Type 2 diabetes or obesity have changes in the composition of their intestinal micro-organisms—called the gut microbiota—that healthy people do not have, researchers from Turkey have found. They presented the results Sunday at the joint meeting of the International Society of Endocrinology and the Endocrine Society: ICE/ENDO 2014 in Chicago.

The study lends support to other recent reports that have found an association between specific bacterial species in the human digestive system and obesity and diabetes, according to lead investigator Yalcin Basaran, MD, an endocrinologist from Gulhane Military Medical Academy School of Medicine, Ankara, Turkey.

"The gut microbiota may be used as an important marker to determine the risk of these metabolic diseases—obesity and diabetes—or it may become a therapeutic target to treat them," Basaran said.

The human digestive system contains an estimated 10 trillion to 100 trillion bacteria and other microscopic organisms, with each person housing at least 160 different species of organisms, according to Basaran. Some researchers now believe that this community of microbes in the human gut contributes to the onset of low-grade inflammation, which in turn may affect body weight and glucose (sugar) metabolism.

Basaran and his fellow researchers sought to identify the relationship between the gut microbe composition and obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Their study included 27 severely obese adults (20 men and seven women) whose body mass index, or BMI, exceeded 35 kg/m2, as well as 26 adults (18 men and eight women) with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes and 28 healthy control subjects (22 men and six women). All subjects were between 18 and 65 years of age, and all provided stool samples. None of the participants had taken antibiotics within the past three months, and none was currently taking medications, according to the investigators.

Fecal analysis using a molecular biology technique showed that several of the most common types of bacteria in the gut were present at considerably lower levels in the obese and diabetic groups, compared with healthy controls. These reductions ranged from 4.2 to 12.5 percent in the obese patients and 10 to 11.5 percent in the diabetic patients, Basaran reported.

In addition, statistical analysis found that bacterial counts related to certain metabolic variables. BMI, a measure of weight and height, and hemoglobin A1c, a measure of blood sugar control over the past three months, influenced levels of the most common gut bacterial species, Firmicutes. Waist circumference, a measure of abdominal fat, and hemoglobin A1c affected levels of another bacterial species: Bifidobacteria, a type of Actinobacteria. Finally, both weight and fasting blood glucose level influenced levels of a third species, Clostridium leptum.

"Further studies should be carried out to elucidate if the gut microbial changes are a cause or effect of metabolic diseases," Basaran said. "Manipulation of intestinal bacteria could offer a new approach to manage obesity and Type 2 diabetes."

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Founded in 1916, the Endocrine Society is the world's oldest, largest and most active organization devoted to research on hormones and the clinical practice of endocrinology. Today, the Endocrine Society's membership consists of over 17,000 scientists, physicians, educators, nurses and students in more than 100 countries. Society members represent all basic, applied and clinical interests in endocrinology. The Endocrine Society is based in Washington, DC. To learn more about the Society and the field of endocrinology, visit our site at http://www.endocrine.org. Follow us on Twitter at https://twitter.com/#!/EndoMedia.