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MLB Picks

MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

While the year-to-date numbers of the starting pitchers may not support it, look for a sneaky pitching duel on Sunday when Nick Tepesch and the Texas Rangers (80-61, 41-32 away) pay a visit to Jason Vargas and the Los Angeles Angels (67-74, 35-39 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 3:35 ET.

The Rangers are slumping at the most inopportune time as they have lost three straight and are 2-6 in their last eight games, including losing two out of three to the Athletics before coming to Anaheim in a critical head-to-head series. They now look to get on track with Tepesch, who is making his first start since July 5th when he went on the Disabled List with elbow inflammation.

This will be his first start ever vs. the Angels, which should make him doubly tough, and he has the support of a Texas bullpen that ranks fourth in the entire Major Leagues with a 3.00 ERA, an ERA that has dipped a touch more over the last 10 games at 2.93.

That is especially true considering that Vargas has pitched well in his two starts vs. the Rangers this year allowing a total of four runs in 12.2 innings. He is also catching a Texas lineup that is averaging only 3.50 runs per nine innings vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games. He also has the support of an Angels’ bullpen that has improved with a stingy 2.17 ERA in the last 10 games.

Therefore, look for a deceptively low scoring game and a rather safe ‘under’ in Anaheim on Sunday.