And so we reach the final hurdle before the home run and we pray that we don’t Stambolova. It’s a four-way nomination that places Deana, Adam, Ashleigh and Scott in the sadly-not-literal (at least in Ashleigh’s case) line of fire. Who goes? We decide.

The message on double eviction is a mixed one. Emma Willis has thus far been clear that only two housemates will be saved whilst live producer Jamie Sutcliffe insisted last night that anything could happen and that a single eviction is still very much a possibility. Whether this disagreement was the result of some internal communicative cock-up or simply a deliberate cock-tease is anyone’s guess. I’m going to guess at the former but hope for the latter. I do this because, as a Deana-backer, I worry that her switch in behaviour might place her in danger of losing votes to Adam and Scott. A single eviction would surely yield a far more predictable outcome in the form of Ashleigh’s departure.

As of Deana’s chances of winning the crown, it seems she may have peaked too early. Eurovicious “can’t help but feel her support is exaggerated online,” and worries that, “she’s behaving in a lot of ways which will rub viewers up the wrong way.” Personally, I’ve found her coming-out as a bit of a dickhead to be quite entertaining and I like the fact that she’s in the mood to push buttons. She’s always insisted that her personality was unable to shine in the presence of slightly intimidating characters and I definitely see her development as a natural progression and not the result of a ‘split personality’. As Deana argued about Conor, “He doesn’t even know my flippin’ personality.” Unfortunately, whilst it appeals somewhat to me, I don’t think Deana’s personality is truly one of a BB champion. She’s carried herself through turbulent times with fantastic dignity but ultimately she’s a little too blunt, tactless and self-absorbed to fit the mould of the typical people’s champion. It is hard not to draw comparisons with the much more high profile Shilpa Shetty debacle when talking about Deana’s journey in the Big Brother house. Beauty queen cum Bollywood actress receives frosty reception in the house, is judged for her affluent lifestyle and finds it hard to make friends. The public recognise bullying in her treatment in the house (although not racially motivated in this case) and yet she keeps her chin up and sails through to the final with grace. The difference is that Shilpa Shetty was a genuinely warm and socially adept human being but, whilst I like Deana a lot, she is rather wrapped up in her own loopy world. As gladiator Jet pointed out on BBBOTS, the quickest way for Deana to make friends would have been to stop asking people why they didn’t like her and start asking people about their own lives.
Before we all throw our hands up in the air and give up on Deana entirely, I’m not slating her to go and I don’t quite agree with Euro that it’s a good time to lay her for the win. It is true, as commenter Sarah notes, that Scott has received a boost in the quality of his coverage in recent days but Adam has rather slipped under the radar of late so it might not be Deana that the ice-haired Maxonian needs to usurp. Deana has, after all, built up a strong following and such groups are prone to viewing the actions of their chosen housemates through rose-tinted glasses. Even as I try to remain impartial (at least in analytical terms) I find myself interpreting Deana’s recent behaviour in a positive way because I have invested in her, mentally and financially. It’s quite possible that a large following will feel the same – especially if it includes scorned women, British Asians, Midlanders and possibly even a gay niche (“She’s such a survivor!”). Could it be possible that a change in persona has come too late to affect Deana’s support?

I would advise playing it very safe with the bets this week. The only sensible option seems to be Ashleigh to go at around 1.3 but you’ll need to stick a fair amount by that in order to reap a reasonable reward. I’m going to dabble there but I’m warning against the dangers of complacency. Ashleigh has now survived two evictions and we have no real gauge of her support other than the fact that she polled fewer votes than Adam, Sara, Deana and Luke A but more than Caroline and Luke S a couple of weeks ago. As Scott is yet to face the public vote, we have very little idea of his support either and so I would recommend playing it safe to all concerned, even if that means missing out on what looks like easy money for Ashleigh to go. At 13 and 16.5 respectively, Deana and in particular Adam seem represent the value bets to be evicted tonight. The question is, how likely are either of them to poll lower than Scott? And that’s assuming that a double eviction is even on the cards.

Giving Luke S the free pass was pretty pointless wasn’t it? Surely these twists should result in the more interesting housemates sticking around. My feeling in general is that the Big Brother formula works best when it’s left at its simplest and the majority of power lies with the public. Many, including me, were sad for instance to see the back of Lauren, whose elimination was the result of Big Brother messing with the nomination format. Part of the appeal of an interactive series is the power afforded to its viewers. I think the mistake lies in thinking that shaking up the eviction process will make the programme less boring. In fact, leaving the process fair from week to week creates a more interesting arc overall in comparison to the fractured process which yields no clear pattern or story. For example, this year’s pattern suggests that Lauren was unpopular, a fact we know to be untrue (BBBOTS revealed that Luke/Lauren was the closest vote to date and implied that the numbers were unusually high). As punters, the twists and turns don’t do us any favours. As viewers, they suck the fun (and the point) right out of the thing. But then perhaps I am clinging on to a golden era, like a purist on a cliff-edge.

I really hope Deana stays, although I agree she doesn’t have the usual charm of a winner neither did Aaron last year. I would love for her to win, I speak on behalf of myself and the rest of the gay niche. She’s like Shilpa but with a backbone and quite a sharp tongue that can be hilarious to watch. It would be a shame to lose her so late in the series but my favorites usually fall at the last hurdle before the finale.

I’m very glad she did stay, Liam. Adam and Luke A seem to be really nice, genuine guys but Deana has been the stand-out character of the series for me. How ironic that Conor was actually the secret to her popularity and his exit has allowed her to behave cockily enough to warrant a lot of boos in place of her usual cheers. It will be a sour end to an otherwise satisfying character arc if she ultimately leaves the BB house to a bad reaction but such is the fickle nature of the viewing public. I agree that her sharp tongue has been hilarious to watch this week and I thought Luke S’s face in the button discussion was priceless. Unfortunately, the ravenous public like a damsel in distress for as long as she keeps in her place, it seems. Women in general have it so very much harder on these shows. Here’s hoping that Deana is still in with a good chance of winning, even if it is to a mixed reaction.

Great post Dug and I mostly agree. I am definitely wary of seeing Ashleigh’s eviction as a sure thing since she beat Caroline. She’ll definitely go tonight but I suppose there is a small chance she won’t be evicted 1st.

I’m not a fan of Deana but I understand why others like her and I definitely feel that such an integral housemate deserves to make the final. I do like Adam but when it’s down to him and Scott, I have to say I’m hoping the former LA resident goes instead. After such a depressing series filled with drama and angst it’s nice to have one character who consistently entertains me and makes me laugh. Scott hasn’t really had a storyline this series but he has still made his mark for me, so I’d like to see him make the final. I can see the casual/undecided viewer having a similar reaction and giving Scott a bit of support this eviction.

As much as I like Adam, I have to ask if his departure would lessen my entertainment. For me the answer is no, and I wonder if similar feelings towards Adam may see him wanting of votes. He’s liked, but would those that like him pick up the phone to vote once, yet alone multiple times?

I still like to go by statistics however, and as Adam and Deana have such a strong lead in every poll out there – I think Ashleigh and Scott will be bowing out tonight. But I wouldn’t be shocked or unhappy if Scott survived.

It also all depends on tonight’s format. If let’s say the voting is only frozen before Ashleigh is evicted. We could then have the top voted HM saved and the vote reopened for the remaining two HMs in danger. If Scott is up against Deana I can see a shock exit on her part as she has built up a lot of dislike this week. If it’s Adam vs Scott, then Scott will go as Adam is the obvious nice guy to help in a two way.

And so all the bookmakers and online polls were wrong yet again and Scott got fewer votes than Ashleigh. Genuinely surprised at this one, more so than any of the previous occasions the market was wrong. Ashleigh basically has no redeeming characteristics, was the only remaining “villain” in the house, and Scott was heavily featured this week in what I’d have judged to be a relatively positive light. I, Tim and Tim’s friend all lost money on this! However, my losses are covered by my having heavily laid Scott for the win.

fiveleaves was absolutely right – the eviction market is far too unpredictable and I think largely best avoided. Have just totted up – by my reckoning, the internet (Betfair, bookmakers + polls) called 5 evictions correctly and 5 incorrectly. The week Victoria went, Lydia was the favourite to go; the week Arron went, Conor was; the week Lauren went, Luke A was; the week Caroline went, Ashleigh was, and for tonight’s first eviction, Ashleigh was. The other 5 evictions (Chris, Benedict, Lydia, Shievonne and Becky) were all correct. 4 of those were in the show’s first 6 weeks – ie. out of the past 4 evictions, the market and online polls have only been correct once. Another statistic: the market correctly called 4 out of the 5 evictions where only 2 housemates were up, but got wrong all but one of the evictions where 3 or more housemates were up. So things are obviously a lot more unpredictable when multiple housemates are nominated.

Bugger Big Brother – I’m sticking to ESC, TXF and BGT from now on. I’ve enjoyed watching it though – the drahmah!

Having backed Adam and Luke A for the win when their odds were quite a bit longer and having laid Sara heavily when her odds were much shorter, I’ve now also backed Deana so that whoever wins out of the three favourites, I make a good return around the same amount. If Sara wins (unlikely but not impossible in this krayzee world) I’m fecked. If Luke S wins (ain’t gonna happen, bless his cotton pecs) I break even.

Yes but it is often the way that nicer characters make it to the final without being nommed much, as is the case for Sara and Luke S. Deana strikes me as the most deserving winner all in all but I’d be happy for Luke A or Adam to win. I do miss Lauren, however, and would have loved to see her win.

The new comments thing is very glitchy for me….the text doesn’t disappear when I try to enter my comment and email address.

Anyway, what a shocker. This is the result which confirms the end of my Big Brother eviction career, which is a shame because I massively enjoy watching the show and trying to work out who is the most and least loathed. The problem here is that I don’t think we’ve really considered the effect of multi-voting. I reckon Adam’s (and especially Deana’s) fans would have voted many many times to save their faves, making Ashleigh and Scott’s totals tiny by comparison, allowing her to sneak ahead. Deana looks good to win now, I think. Just going to catch up with last night’s show.

Why do you think that specifically about multiple votes out of interest? I don’t think tonight’s result was particularly shocking – Deana and Adam have always seemed more popular than Ash and Scott. I think part of the confusion comes when people start booing Deana and that gets mistaken for a drop in her popularity. A rise in dislike of someone doesn’t necessarily lie alongside a decline in her core fanbase.