Guru Investment Theses on Varian Medical Systems Inc

David Rolfe Comments on Varian Medical Systems - Apr 18, 2014

Varian Medical Systems (VAR) has been a staple in our portfolio since the fall of 2005. The stock has rebounded smartly, up +31% from its April 2013 lows through the first quarter. Varian continues to be the global market share and technological leader in the radiation oncology business. Unfortunately, the incidence of cancer continues its deadly growth. In the U.S. alone, the American Cancer Society projects that some 1.7 million people will be diagnosed with cancer. Expectations of new cancer cases around the world are approaching 25 million over the next three decades. Of these new cases, approximately two-­‐thirds will be treated with some sort of radiation therapy. Varian has been at the forefront of linear particle accelerator since the late 1940's. Today the Company's installed base numbers over 7,300 LINACS across the globe – a 60% market share. As impressive as that may sound, the availability of state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art radiation therapy (radiosurgery and proton therapy) outside of the U.S. is woefully low. The developed world has access to 35 to 110 LINACS per million people over the age of 65. In the U.S., it's 110 LINACS per million. Western Europe and Japan is 35 to 65 per million. In India, Africa, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia there are between 1 and 20 machines per million. In China there is less than 10 machines per million. Complementing the Company's long-­‐term growth opportunity in radiation therapy is the secular trend in the "digitization of radiology," which is a key driver of their lucrative software and flat-­‐panel services business, plus their X-­‐ray tube replacement business that sells into the installed base of competing LINACS. The Company's initiatives to drive greater productivity continue to bear fruit. In 2013 sales per employee increased 14% and operating income per employee increased 20% over 2012 levels. Such productivity has helped the Company offset the continuing losses as they rollout their proton therapy machines. Cutting edge technologies such as proton therapy are one of the many reasons why cancer survivorship rates are up to nearly 70% from 50% from just the 1970's. You will be hearing much more about the marvels of proton therapy in the years to come. The key benefit of proton therapy over the latest x-­‐ray technology is that proton beams, due to proton's relatively larger sub-­‐atomic mass, can be controlled and stopped at the tumor. Conventional X-­‐rays particles cannot be 3 stopped and risk damaging surrounding healthy cells. Due to the exceptional accuracy of a proton beam, the oncologist can more safely deliver much higher doses of radiation (hypofraction), which kills cancer faster with fewer treatments. Furthermore, tumors that are close to vital organs are ideal for proton therapy. These include head and neck, breast, lung, gastrointestinal, prostate and spine. Proton therapy is also ideal for children to avoid longer-­‐term side effects of traditional radiation therapy. The advantages of this therapy have been known since the 1940's, but the cost of commercialization has been a nearly insurmountable hurdle. The Varian proton therapy equipped facility at the Scripps Proton Therapy center in San Diego just went online in January. This $220 million, 102,000 square-­‐foot, facility is only the 15th proton therapy facility in the U.S. At its core sits a 95-­‐ton superconducting cyclotron where the proton beam is generated using oxygen and hydrogen to create a plasma stream. Protons are then extracted and accelerated to roughly 100,000 miles per second. Such miracles of science and technology (Cincinnati Children's Hospital just recently placed a proton order) come at considerable costs. The Company needs to get the costs of such systems below $25 million in order to drive any meaningful growth and profitability from proton therapy. Given Varian's long and exceptional history of innovation with LINACS, combined with proton therapy's high barriers to entry, we believe the Company is well-­‐positioned to eventually reap a substantial proportion of any potential financial rewards generated by this ground-­‐breaking technology. Stericycle continued its steady streak of growth. Last quarter earnings per share were up 12%, driven by a 13% increase in revenues, compared to the December 2012 calendar quarter. Stericycle is able to methodically deliver such growth through a unique combination of organic and inorganic means. For instance, during the quarter they closed eight acquisitions that will generate roughly $34 million in incremental annual revenues. As for the Company's competitive positioning, the regulated medical waste industry market opportunity is roughly $10.5 billion spread across a highly fragmented competitive field, consisting of regional or local players, with none generating revenues above $100 million.

Top Ranked Articles about Varian Medical Systems Inc

Varian Medical Systems (VAR) has been a staple in our portfolio since the fall of 2005. The stock has rebounded smartly, up +31% from its April 2013 lows through the first quarter. Varian continues to be the global market share and technological leader in the radiation oncology business. Unfortunately, the incidence of cancer continues its deadly growth. In the U.S. alone, the American Cancer Society projects that some 1.7 million people will be diagnosed with cancer. Expectations of new cancer cases around the world are approaching 25 million over the next three decades. Of these new cases, approximately two-­‐thirds will be treated with some sort of radiation therapy. Varian has been at the forefront of linear particle accelerator since the late 1940's. Today the Company's installed base numbers over 7,300 LINACS across the globe – a 60% market share. As impressive as that may sound, the availability of state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art radiation therapy (radiosurgery and proton therapy) outside of the U.S. is woefully low. The developed world has access to 35 to 110 LINACS per million people over the age of Read more...

Business Description

Varian Medical Systems Inc is a Delaware corporation was originally incorporated in 1948 as Varian Associates, Inc. The Company is a manufacturer of medical devices and software for treating cancer and other medical conditions with radiotherapy, radiosurgery, proton therapy and brachytherapy. It is a supplier of x-ray imaging components for medical, scientific, and industrial applications and also supplies x-ray imaging products for cargo screening and industrial inspection. The Company has two reportable operating segments: Oncology Systems and X-ray Products. The Oncology Systems business segment designs, manufactures, sells and services hardware and software products for treating cancer with radiotherapy, stereotactic radiotherapy, stereotactic body radiotherapy, stereotactic radiosurgery and brachytherapy. Products include linear accelerators, brachytherapy afterloaders, treatment simulation and verification equipment and accessories; as well as information management, treatment planning and image processing software. Oncology Systems products enable radiation oncology departments in hospitals and clinics to perform conventional radiotherapy treatments and offer advanced treatments such as fixed field intensity-modulated radiation therapy, image-guided radiation therapy, volumetric modulated arc therapy and stereotactic radiotherapy, as well as to treat patients using brachytherapy techniques, which involve temporarily implanting radioactive sources. The Companys Oncology Systems products are also used by neurosurgeons to perform stereotactic radiosurgery. Oncology Systems customers worldwide include university research and community hospitals, private and governmental institutions, healthcare agencies, physicians offices and cancer care clinics. The X-ray Products business segment designs, manufactures, sells and services x-ray imaging components for use in a range of applications, including radiographic or fluoroscopic imaging, mammography, special procedures, computed tomography and industrial applications. The Companys x-ray imaging components are sold to large imaging system OEM customers that incorporate them into their medical diagnostic, dental, veterinary and industrial imaging systems. It sells x-ray tubes and flat panel digital image detectors for filmless x-ray imaging to small OEMs, independent service companies and directly to end-users for replacement purposes. The Company has three other businesses that are reported together under the Other category. SIP designs, manufactures, sells and services Linatron x-ray accelerators, imaging processing software and image detection products for security and inspection purposes, such as cargo screening at ports and borders and nondestructive examination in a variety of applications. The VPT business develops, designs, manufactures, sells and services products and systems for delivering proton therapy, a form of external beam radiotherapy using proton beams for the treatme

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