The world is becoming less safe and peaceful. According to the 2018 Global Peace Index prepared by the Institute for Economics and Peace, 42 countries experienced an increase in the intensity of internal conflict over the past decade, twice the number of countries that have improved.
... Exibir mais + While progress is being made in certain areas, military spending declined slightly, for instance, peacefulness deteriorated as the intensity of conflict worsened. For financing to be effective, a good understanding of the situation is essential. Without timely and reliable data, development interventions risk being based on anecdotal evidence, with all the risks that come with inadequate planning, poor designs, and ineffective targeting. Quality data are critical for development interventions to be effective but are hard to obtain in situations of violence and conflict. Worse, collecting good data is rarely a priority in situations where urgency trumps being deliberate. This book offers a welcome reprieve from this habit. The authors care about collecting statistical information and have gone to great lengths to compile data in some of the world’s most challenging circumstances. That they succeeded speaks to their tenacity and ability to think outside the box. The variety of approaches and solutions discussed means that many practitioners will find something of value in ‘Data Collection in Fragile Situations.’
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Interventions in highly insecure and fragile contexts are always confronted with the latent risk of not being able to implement the program as intended.
... Exibir mais + Despite its high policy relevance, little is known about the impacts of program disruption or cancellation on beneficiaries. This study uses the unplanned cancellation of the South Sudan Youth Business Start-Up Grant Program to assess the socioeconomic, behavioral, and psychological consequences of a program that fails to be implemented as intended. Originally planned as a randomized trial, the Youth Startup Business Grant Program consisted of an unconditional cash grant combined with a business and life skills training targeting the youth in South Sudan. Due to the intensification of violence in the country, the disbursement of the grant was terminated in late 2016 before most of the intended beneficiaries had accessed the grant. The study uses survey data from face-to-face interviews and experimental data from lotteries, trust games, and a list experiment to assess the consequences of the cancellation in a comprehensive form. The empirical analysis employs instrumental variable regressions to control for individual characteristics that might have made it more likely to access the grant before disbursement was frozen. The results show that participants who received the originally planned treatment displayed significant improvements in their consumption, savings, and psychological well-being. However, participants who vainly expected to receive the cash grant showed reduced levels of consumption and women among this subgroup also experienced strong reductions in their trust level. In addition, the study finds some evidence that these women were less likely to migrate.
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Interventions in highly insecure and fragile contexts are always confronted with the latent risk of not being able to implement the program as intended.
... Exibir mais + Despite its high policy relevance, little is known about the impacts of program disruption or cancellation on beneficiaries. This study uses the unplanned cancellation of the South Sudan Youth Business Start-Up Grant Program to assess the socioeconomic, behavioral, and psychological consequences of a program that fails to be implemented as intended. Originally planned as a randomized trial,the Youth Startup Business Grant Program consisted of an unconditional cash grant combined with a business and life skills training targeting the youth in South Sudan. Due to the intensification of violence in the country,the disbursement of the grant was terminated in late 2016 before most of the intended beneficiaries hadaccessed the grant. The study uses survey data from face-to-face interviews and experimental data from lotteries, trust games, and a list experiment to assess the consequences of the cancellation in a comprehensive form. The empirical analysis employs instrumental variable regressions to control for individual characteristics that might have made it more likely to access the grant before disbursement was frozen. The results show that participants who received the originally planned treatment displayed significant improvements in their consumption, savings, and psychological well-being. However, participants who vainly expected to receive the cash grant showed reduced levels of consumption and women among this subgroup also experienced strongreductions in their trust level. In addition, the study finds some evidence that these women were less likely to migrate.
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Enumeration areas are the operational geographic units for the collection, dissemination, and analysis of census data and are often used as a national sampling frame for various types of surveys.
... Exibir mais + Traditionally, enumeration areas are created by manually digitizing small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or physically walking the boundaries of units, both of which are highly time, cost, and labor intensive. In addition, creating enumeration areas requires considering the size of the population and area within each unit. This is an optimization problem that can best be solved by a computer. This paper, for the first time, produces an automatic designation of predefined census enumeration areas based on high-resolution gridded populationand settlement data sets and using publicly available natural and administrative boundaries. This automated approach is compared with manually digitized enumeration areas that were created in urban areas in Mogadishu and Hargeisa for the United Nations Population Estimation Survey for Somalia in 2014. The automatically generated enumeration areas are consistent with standard enumeration areas, including having identifiable boundaries to field teams on the ground, and appropriate sizing and population for coverage by an enumerator. Furthermore, the automated urban enumeration areas have no gaps. The paper extends this work to rural Somalia, for which no records exist of previous enumeration area demarcations. This work shows the time,labor, and cost-saving value of automated enumeration area delineation and points to the potential for broadlyavailable tools that are suitable for low-income and data-poor settings but applicable to potentially wider contexts.
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Enumeration areas are the operational geographic units for the collection, dissemination, and analysis of census data and are often used as a national sampling frame for various types of surveys.
... Exibir mais + Traditionally, enumeration areas are created by manually digitizing small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or physically walking the boundaries of units, both of which are highly time, cost, and labor intensive. In addition, creating enumeration areas requires considering the size of the population and area within each unit. This is an optimization problem that can best be solved by a computer. This paper, for the first time, produces an automatic designation of predefined census enumeration areas based on high-resolution gridded population and settlement data sets and using publicly available natural and administrative boundaries. This automated approach is compared with manually digitized enumeration areas that were created in urban areas in Mogadishu and Hargeisa for the United Nations Population Estimation Survey for Somalia in 2014. The automatically generated enumeration areas are consistent with standard enumeration areas, including having identifiable boundaries to field teams on the ground, and appropriate sizing and population for coverage by an enumerator. Furthermore, the automated urban enumeration areas have no gaps. The paper extends this work to rural Somalia, for which no records exist of previous enumeration area demarcations. This work shows the time, labor, and cost-saving value of automated enumeration area delineation and points to the potential for broadly available tools that are suitable for low-income and data-poor settings but applicable to potentially wider contexts.
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Understanding forced displacement and developing effective solutions requires closing several critical gaps in the data. With forced displacement rising worldwide, the body of work on displacement is growing rapidly.
... Exibir mais + Data on internally displaced persons (IDPs) are particularly problematic, as the distinction between IDPs and internal migrants are not consistent across countries, and as the presence and number of IDPs is often politicized. While efforts have been made to create standardized frameworks for collecting quantitative data on forced displacement, important data gaps persist. This study helps to close data gaps by using micro-level data to profile IDPs. The report uses micro-data, defined as individual and household-level data that is collected directly through personal interviews. Comprehensive micro-data surveys cover IDP populations in four countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. The micro-data surveys represent IDPs, refugees, and non-displaced populations. The analysis is guided by the durable solutions indicator framework while the policy insights focus on overcoming displacement-induced vulnerability. The analysis examines the demographic structure of IDP and resident populations and draws on reasons triggering displacement.
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Understanding forced displacement and developing effective solutions requires closing several critical gaps in the data. With forced displacement rising worldwide, the body of work on displacement is growing rapidly.
... Exibir mais + Data on internally displaced persons (IDPs) are particularly problematic, as the distinction between IDPs and internal migrants are not consistent across countries, and as the presence and number of IDPs is often politicized. While efforts have been made to create standardized frameworks for collecting quantitative data on forced displacement, important data gaps persist. This study helps to close data gaps by using micro-level data to profile IDPs. The report uses micro-data, defined as individual and household-level data that is collected directly through personal interviews. Comprehensive micro-data surveys cover IDP populations in four countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. The micro-data surveys represent IDPs, refugees, and non-displaced populations. The analysis is guided by the durable solutions indicator framework while the policy insights focus on overcoming displacement-induced vulnerability. The analysis examines the demographic structure of IDP and resident populations and draws on reasons triggering displacement.
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Understanding forced displacement and developing effective solutions requires closing several critical gaps in the data. With forced displacement rising worldwide, the body of work on displacement is growing rapidly.
... Exibir mais + Data on internally displaced persons (IDPs) are particularly problematic, as the distinction between IDPs and internal migrants are not consistent across countries, and as the presence and number of IDPs is often politicized. While efforts have been made to create standardized frameworks for collecting quantitative data on forced displacement, important data gaps persist. This study helps to close data gaps by using micro-level data to profile IDPs. The report uses micro-data, defined as individual and household-level data that is collected directly through personal interviews. Comprehensive micro-data surveys cover IDP populations in four countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. The micro-data surveys represent IDPs, refugees, and non-displaced populations. The analysis is guided by the durable solutions indicator framework while the policy insights focus on overcoming displacement-induced vulnerability. The analysis examines the demographic structure of IDP and resident populations and draws on reasons triggering displacement.
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Somalia is on the path to political and security stabilization after more than two decades of civil war and conflict. Opportunities to ensure a development trajectory face many challenges since the country remains a fragile state subject to multiple shocks.
... Exibir mais + Widespread poverty and food insecurity is a recurring developmental issue. Displacement is a key feature of modern Somali history linked to multiple drivers, including recurrent exposure to internal conflict and environmental hazards. Somalia is urbanizing rapidly due to large-scale forced displacement and economic migration that have driven large numbers of Somalis toward the urban areas. Remittances are central to the Somali economy and provide a lifeline to some segments of the population but not the most vulnerable. The World Bank implemented the second wave of the Somali high frequency survey (SHFS) in 2017-2018. This report is based on the most recent and first extensive household survey, wave 2 of the SHFS. The report is organized into six chapters. The first chapter presents an updated profile of monetary and nonmonetary dimensions of poverty for the Somali population, including the nomadic population. The second chapter explores in more detail spatial variation, with a focus on urbanization. The third chapter examines the impact of the 2016-2017 drought on livelihoods to identify the populations at risk and the factors that protected households against its negative effects. The fourth chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the internally displaced populations to identify displacement-related needs and to inform durable solutions. As a reaction to the analysis of poverty and vulnerabilities, the fifth chapter focuses on social protection as a means of promoting equity and building resilience against the effect of shocks on livelihoods. Similarly, the sixth chapter examines remittances and their role for livelihoods and resilience.
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The Kenyan economy rebounded in 2018 and economic activity in the first quarter of 2019 was healthy, although emerging drought conditions could curtail GDP growth for the remainder of the year.
... Exibir mais + The economy expanded by 6.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 compared to 4.7 percent during the same period in 2017 driven by strong private consumption in part due to improved income from agricultural harvests in 2018, remittance inflows, and lower food prices. The Bank's GDP growth estimate for 2018 is about 5.8 percent. A strong pick-up in economic activity in Q1 of 2019 was reflected by real growth in consumer spending and stronger investor sentiment. Nonetheless, a delayed start to the March-May 2019 "long" rainy season could affect the planting season-resulting in poor harvests. In addition, ongoing emergency intervention to address food shortages in several counties could impose fiscal pressure constraining capital spending. These developments have slowed the growth forecast for 2019 and for the medium term relative to our October 2018 Update. Inflation remains within the government's target range of 5±2.5 percent. Headline inflation averaged 4.7 percent in 2018 compared to 8.0 percent in 2017, primarily due to the slowdown in food inflation, which in turn offset a temporary acceleration in energy prices. Further, core inflation has remained below 5 percent, suggesting benign underlying demand pressures. With low inflation, monetary policy could be more accommodative to support growth if needed, but with interest rate caps tied to the policy rate, further loosening would be constrained. The low inflationary pressure has also been supported by a stable local currency. The shilling has traded within a narrow band of Ksh100/US Dollas-Ksh.103/US Dollars in 2018, thereby serving as a nominal anchor to inflationary expectations
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Somalia is on the path to political and security stabilization after more than two decades of civil war and conflict. Opportunities to ensure a development trajectory face many challenges since the country remains a fragile state subject to multiple shocks.
... Exibir mais + Widespread poverty and food insecurity is a recurring developmental issue. Displacement is a key feature of modern Somali history linked to multiple drivers, including recurrent exposure to internal conflict and environmental hazards. Somalia is urbanizing rapidly due to large-scale forced displacement and economic migration that have driven large numbers of Somalis toward the urban areas. Remittances are central to the Somali economy and provide a lifeline to some segments of the population but not the most vulnerable. The World Bank implemented the second wave of the Somali high frequency survey (SHFS) in 2017-2018. This report is based on the most recent and first extensive household survey, wave 2 of the SHFS. The report is organized into six chapters. The first chapter presents an updated profile of monetary and nonmonetary dimensions of poverty for the Somali population, including the nomadic population. The second chapter explores in more detail spatial variation, with a focus on urbanization. The third chapter examines the impact of the 2016-2017 drought on livelihoods to identify the populations at risk and the factors that protected households against its negative effects. The fourth chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the internally displaced populations to identify displacement-related needs and to inform durable solutions. As a reaction to the analysis of poverty and vulnerabilities, the fifth chapter focuses on social protection as a means of promoting equity and building resilience against the effect of shocks on livelihoods. Similarly, the sixth chapter examines remittances and their role for livelihoods and resilience.
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To embark on a sustainable pathway toward development, effective policy responses must be implemented quickly and based on evidence. This requires reliable, timely data, which is often unavailable especially in fragile settings.
... Exibir mais + An innovative High Frequency Survey (HFS) infrastructure offers a modern data collection system to fill critical data gaps. It can provide quantitative data to inform programs and policies, often linked to resilience in fragile settings. Using the cases of Somalia and South Sudan, this note describes the design and setup of such a HFS infrastructure and illustrates how high frequency price data can effectively support decision-making even in the event of an economic or humanitarian crisis.
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Somalia is highly data-deprived, leaving policy makers to operate in a statistical vacuum. To overcome this challenge, the World Bank implemented wave 2 of the Somalia High Frequency Survey to better understand livelihoods and vulnerabilities and, especially, to estimate national poverty indicators.
... Exibir mais + The specific context of insecurity and lack of statistical infrastructure in Somalia posed several challenges for implementing a household survey and measuring poverty. This paper outlines how these challenges were overcome in wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey through methodological and technological adaptations in four areas. First, in the absence of a recent census, no exhaustive lists of census enumeration areas along with population estimates existed, creating challenges to derive a probability-based representative sample. Therefore, geospatial techniques and high-resolution imagery were used to model the spatial population distribution, build a probability-based population sampling frame, and generate enumeration areas are to overcome the lack of a recent population census. Second, although some areas remained completely inaccessible due to insecurity, even more accessible areas held potential risks to the safety of field staff and survey respondents, so that time spent in these areas has to be minimized. To address security concerns, the survey adapted logistical arrangements, sampling strategy using micro-listing, and questionnaire design to limit time on the ground based on the Rapid Consumption Methodology. Third, poverty in completely inaccessible areas had to be estimated by other means. Therefore, the Somali High Frequency Survey relies on correlates derived from satellite imagery and other geo-spatial data to estimate poverty in such areas. Finally, the nonstationary nature of the nomadic population required special sampling strategies.
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Somalia is highly data-deprived, leaving policy makers to operate in a statistical vacuum. To overcome this challenge, the World Bank implemented wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey to better understand livelihoods and vulnerabilities and, especially, to estimate national poverty indicators.
... Exibir mais + The specific context of insecurity and lack of statistical infrastructure in Somalia posed several challenges for implementing a household survey and measuring poverty. This paper outlines how these challenges were overcome in wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey through methodological and technological adaptations in four areas. First, in the absence of a recent census, no exhaustive lists of census enumeration areas along with population estimates existed, creating challenges to derive a probability-based representative sample. Therefore, geospatial techniques and high-resolution imagery were used to model the spatial population distribution, build a probability-based population sampling frame, and generate enumeration areas to overcome the lack of a recent population census. Second, although some areas remained completely inaccessible due to insecurity, even most accessible areas held potential risks to the safety of field staff and survey respondents, so that time spent in these areas had to be minimized. To address security concerns, the survey adapted logistical arrangements, sampling strategy using micro-listing, and questionnaire design to limit time on the ground based on the Rapid Consumption Methodology. Third, poverty in completely inaccessible areas had to be estimated by other means. Therefore, the Somali High Frequency Survey relies on correlates derived from satellite imagery and other geo-spatial data to estimate poverty in such areas. Finally, the nonstationary nature of the nomadic population required special sampling strategies.
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The High Frequency South Sudan Survey, implemented by the South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics in collaboration with the World Bank, conducted several waves of representative surveys across seven of the ten former states between 2015 and 2017.
... Exibir mais + These surveys provided a long overdue update to poverty numbers in South Sudan, with the previous national poverty estimates dating as far back as 2009. The escalation and expansion of the civil conflict posed severe challenges to the planning and implementation of fieldwork. The surveys therefore capitalized on several technological and methodological innovations to establish a reliable system of data collection and obtain valid poverty estimates. Focusing on the 2016 urban-rural wave, this paper describes the design and analysis of the survey to arrive at reliable poverty estimates for South Sudan, utilizing the Rapid Consumption Methodology combines with geo-spatial data for inaccessible survey areas.
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The High Frequency South Sudan Survey, implemented by the South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics in collaboration with the World Bank, conducted several waves of representative surveys across seven of the ten former states between 2015 and 2017.
... Exibir mais + These surveys provided a long overdue update to poverty numbers in South Sudan, with the previous national poverty estimates dating as far back as 2009. The escalation and expansion of the civil conflict posed severe challenges to the planning and implementation of fieldwork. The surveys therefore capitalized on several technological and methodological innovations to establish a reliable system of data collection and obtain valid poverty estimates. Focusing on the 2016 urban-rural wave, this paper describes the design and analysis of the survey to arrive at reliable poverty estimates for South Sudan, utilizing the Rapid Consumption Methodology combined with geo-spatial data for inaccessible survey areas.
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Understanding the magnitude and importance of income shocks, such as drought or conflict, in causing and perpetuating poverty is critical to designing policies aimed at building resilience and contributing toward the goal of ending poverty.
... Exibir mais + This paper uses micro-data from two waves of the Somali High Frequency Survey to assess the impact of the severe drought that Somalia experiences in 2016/17 on poverty, hunger, and consumption. The analysis uses a regression framework to quantify the effects of the drought, relying on spatial variation in drought exposure and the timing of data collection, which took place before and during the drought, for identification. The drought is found to have a sizable effect on poverty, consumption, and hunger in rural areas, where agricultural households and those lacking access to infrastructure and basic services are most severely affected. A renewed drought shock could lead to an increase in poverty of 9 percentage points. The findings underscore the importance of investing in rural resilience, especially among agricultural households.
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Understanding the magnitude and importance of income shocks, such as drought or conflict, in causing and perpetuating poverty is critical to designing policies aimed at building resilience and contributing toward the goal of ending poverty.
... Exibir mais + This paper uses micro-data from two waves of the Somali High Frequency Survey to assess the impact of the severe drought that Somalia experienced in 2016/17 on poverty, hunger, and consumption. The analysis uses a regression framework to quantify the effects of the drought, relying on spatial variation in drought exposure and the timing of data collection, which took place before and during the drought, for identification. The drought is found to have a sizable effect on poverty, consumption, and hunger in rural areas, where agricultural households and those lacking access to infrastructure and basic services are most severely affected. A renewed drought shock could lead to an increase in poverty of 9 percentage points. The findings underscore the importance of investing in rural resilience, especially among agricultural households.
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