Friday, April 30, 2010

There were 16 signals from 4 major Currency out from US market time.And the signals work more clearly when there are no news around. I just got faked out from AUD 2 times.

When bandits from US are sleeping, the herds begin their day.

It's quite difficult fighting the US profesional. So why don't take a side and hunting at night?

I kept losing these days. It's like the market were playing at me like : take my stops then go my direction, things like that. If (ironic words for traders) I just hang on with my trades then no losses at all. So in 10 days I have no losing day then BOOM!!! one day I'll wipe out my account.

Bleeding to death or Fattened before get slaughtered? Choice is yours.

One Things, One most important thing from trading I learn is : No Regret when taking losses, even if you're in Big Red. Keep trading, lessen the loss per trade and maybe one day we'll proud of our choice.

For today I'm proud I choice my way. I am a loser trader right now. And maybe one day I will go bankrupt. I dunno. But I know that my effort won't be in vain.

I looked at charts almost 15 hours per day, my a** is sick. I'm gonna sell my apartment. My debt mounting, But hey, I am still alive, well and healthy. That's enough to be grateful.

And one more thing. Money is all about game. If you still thinking what you can do with the money you give to the market then IMO you are not prepared to become a trader. A trader must willing to lose money. Because it's part of the game. Even the best traders in the world experienced wiping out his account.

That's all amusing myself. See you then. I'll still trading because I want to make money.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Maybe we already know about Tick Chart. Find out more at http://www.trade-ideas.com/Glossary/Tick_Chart.html.

Now I would like to show th advantages about Tick Chart especially with Price Action Setup. 1. Stop Loss Is Tight.Tick Chart worked faster when they are lot of trade rush in. For Breakout Trader, the more volume enter at S/R the more valid the break. But it is also important to enter 1 Tick just below the breakout candle. It's usually narrow SL so it's provide low risk entry. Why? Let's assume ES S/R broke above 1200 with fast build candle. If it's fake breakout, usually it's also dropped fast. The Stop at tick candle chart secured you from the fake break. While Time based chart sometimes make a big long bar so give more loss if stopped out.2. Fast when busy, Slow when quiet. The most important things about breakout S/R is participant. So the faster Tick Bar Broke S/R the better. My Setup consists multiple S/R of the day so it's important using the Tick Chart.3. Forming Setup Faster when more trade entered. My Setup based on candle formation, so with 5min or 1min candle the setup created all the same frame. But with Tick Chart the faster the setup formed, then the most likely it's a valid setup since my setup are breakthrough setup.

Some disadvantages about Tick Chart is it need more processing. In my computer the chart sometimes hang a bit and it's quite frustating. But the problem can be solved with better internet connection or lower the internet workload.

Today I scalp Options. Price and funny spread made my head fuzzy. Very not rewarding. For Example Options XYZ when you bought = bid 100 ask 105 + 1 commission. Then you had 6 disadvantages or 6% behind ( 6 / 100 ). Then you made profit bid 110 ask 115. another 6% behind. Total disadvantages = 12% !! Not mentioning iliquid session's spread is 10!!!.

Then only good things scalping options is : They are cheap and we can make scaling. Try it who want to make unbelievable winning ratio.

Let's look at Futures, ES for example : bid 1200.00 ask 1200.25 + 2.1 commision. You had 14.6 disadvantages or 1.43% (1 ES contract = 1000) then multiply it at exit you had only 2.86%. ES is the most liquid Future in the world.

Once again, they who had more capital has more opportuinity getting more rich.

Here's CL prediction. Warning !!!MARKET IS TURNING !!! I dumped my Bullish Bias on CL. Next Stop will be at $85 then prepared for going down hard and fast.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Next type of trader is Big Wave Trade. They're contrarian with the Daily Wage Trader. Their stlye is letting profit run. Losses is not an issue. It's part of the game. Here's the characteristic:a. Let the profit run. Their Confidence level is very high. They won't taking profit if the target didn't reach, unless Black Swan occured.b. Stop Loss is not an issue. Usually the Capital is big so multiple loss won't harm them. The Confidence Level also an important part of their trading. They rather take loss than losing opportunity.c. Never had enough. They're looking big chunk of gold for their profit. While in process, they don't mind risking fraction of their capital.d. Low Winning Ratio, this is logic. Letting profit run may find more failure than take profit partially.e. Very High Risk-Reward Ratio. They don't care how much money they had. They only care how much money they make from the opportunity.f. This kind of trader is in my opinion an evolution from people who are a big gunner wanting get rich quick become a more patience and better money management.g. Patience is gold. They dare not to taking profit in even months just to get all of the profit in just 1 day.

What to be concerned:These kind of traders in my opinion will be the one who get rich from the market, or go broke fast..The Big problem is the Confidence Level and Bias. They're a little difficult to change their bias in the long run and when market change, they will fighting the market more often. At the early career, they also had problem from taking losses. So these kind of trader if survive means they already embrace the stop loss thing. And that made them a very great trader.So the first things to do for this type of trader:1. Adequate Capital (risk less than 1% per trade)2. Confidence with solid early signal. Before making a bias, make a parameter of trend failure and do it with discipline. This parameter like trendline break, S/R break, Maximum drawdown,etc.3. Trail Stop, lessen more losses. You can enter again if you got washed out without significant loss.

Big Wave Trader IMO is more superior than Daily Wage Trader in the long run. It's like employee vs businessman. For starter employee usually make more money but in the long run businessman is who stand above them.

The Sucessful Daily Wage Trader may evolve to Big Wave Trader if they are willing to have more success. It's all about getting out from the Comfort Zone.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

No clue yet how CL and ZS will do. CL at the top at bearish channel. I think CL may retrace to create a new up-channel. Target price would be 84 - 84.5. If not then the price may shoot through the 1 year hight at 87. Bias still bullish.

ZS stil on the healthy uptrend. I think retracement to 1000 may happen today before soar through the roof.

Here's something I want to share about trader. It's not about the trader's technique, indicator, or edge. It's more about the goal of the trader, aka: the profit. Two traders may have the same technique, same indicator, same entry, but very different outcome. Here's my thought about it:

1. Daily wage trader This type of trader prefer a consistent result, high winning ratio, and feel happy for mediocre result. This kind of trader rarely let the profit run, and accumulate small gain day after day. They don't like a losing day, even for a healthy losses. They like to play safe, and greed is their worst enemy.

Characteristic :a. Enough is enough. They have a daily goal for fixed amount of dollar. They're not clinging to market to become millionaire in one night. Trading is for making money.b. High Winning Ratio. The win rate is very high, more than 80% per day. Why? Because they close their trade after booked their dollar target for the day. They are not looking for extra money, tempted to overtrade. No Regret for losing opportunity. Their only regret is having a losing day.c. Consistent. Accumulated small gain is their objective. Consistency is their number one objective. They are rather have a 100% winning ratio and 10% account growth than 50% winning ratio and 20% account growth. They use the trading like a work, paid every day. They get frustrated if they have to pay back for their work.d. Cut your losses, and cut your profit even shorter. If they get a sudden move to their objective they will take profit and have a nice day, even that's only 1 min entry.e. Typically this kind of trader will be (no offense): female who love stability, comfort, and doesn't like adrenaline rush.

What have to be concerned:A losing streak is a nightmare for this type of trader. Perfectionist is their motto. They prefer have two green daily profit at $10 rather than one red -$10 one green +$25. If they have a losing streak, and after taking their stop loss the market go to their direction, they will become very frustated. One time, two time, and suddenly they break their stop loss and sometimes averaging down. This is the start of the disaster. One mistakes like this may costs 2 weeks of their small gain if not wiped out their profit/account. The very bad Risk Reward Ratio may harm their account in the long run also.

How to fix it:There's nothing perfect in the market. Everybody take losses.Sometimes 3 to 4 losing streak. Nothing bad about it. The important thing is money management. Don't let the losses too big. Enhance your winning ratio a little bit. Make it minimum 2:1 winning ratio. It will make your winning ratio lower but in the long run you make profit.Keep a journal : entry,exit,potential profit,potential losses,win vs profit ratio. Then you'll find out what you have to do next. And one more shout : GET OUT FROM THE COMFORT ZONE and TAKE LOSSES !!!

Summary :Beginners sometimes fall to this category. They thought they are different from the others get rich quick scheme."Well I am different. I am not greedy."They want a holy grail for their trading method. Small winning is okay, unless there's no losses. If there's one, then the market will stopped moving. Market moves because there's wrong and right decisions. If everybody right, then who'll buy/short your position?

I was once become this kind of trader. My winning ratio incredibly high. 87% with 14 streak winning day, and I lost 50% of my monthly profit in one day losses.Now I am shifting to taking small losses. My previous showed with 20% winning ratio you may still make a profit, thoughI am not encouraging that kind of trade.

That's it for now, Next Post about the Big Wave Trader. Coming soon...

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

We may see a complete 3 push down before it goes rally breaking the $87 spot. Be prepared for $90 dollar Oil. I circled the critical point of price on my chart. If it goes down, prepare to long.If it goes up preapre to long. I know I had a bullish bias.