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Senate outlook improves (slightly) for Democrats

A series of developments over the last month (or so) have brightened Democrats' hopes in a handful of Senate races -- although the overall national landscape suggests the party is still headed toward losses in the fall.

Recent Republican primaries have been good to Democrats. Victories by tea party-backed candidates such as Sharron Angle in Nevada and Rand Paul in Kentucky mean those seats, once considered off the radar, are now back in play.

In the Pennsylvania primary, Democrats won by losing. Sen. Arlen Specter (D) was a terrible profile for Democrats to try to hold the seat in the fall -- a long-serving politician who had openly admitted to switching parties to preserve his chances at reelection. Rep. Joe Sestak, who ousted Specter on May 18, has a considerably better profile as a short-timer in Congress -- he was first elected in 2006 -- with a deep military resume and strong outsider credentials.

Then there's Illinois, where Rep. Mark Kirk (R) continues to struggle to explain inconsistencies between his military resume and his military accomplishments. Before Kirk's resume problems, the race had been dominated (and not in a good way) by state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and his family's failed bank. Now, Kirk has provided Democrats with plenty of ammunition to muddy the ethics waters.

All of the above is not to say that Republicans won't make Senate gains this fall. They will. And, they may well make significant gains -- including in places such as Nevada, Pennsylvania and Illinois. But, Democrats' hand in each of those states has improved over the last month and given the party a path to victory that they may not have had before.

As always, the top-ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch parties in the fall. Kudos and critiques are welcome in the comments section.

To the Line!

Coming onto the Line: Ohio, WashingtonComing off the Line: Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire

10. Ohio (R): The Buckeye State Senate race got underway formally earlier this week when former Rep. Rob Portman (R) launched the first ad of the general election, a spot that touts him as an economic problem-solver. Portman's financial advantage over Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher will allow him to have the airwaves to himself for some period of time. But Democrats are confident (and Republicans are worried) that Portman's work as the U.S. Trade Representative in the Bush Administration is a silver bullet in this economically hard-up state. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Washington (D): Republicans got their best possible candidate against Sen. Patty Murray (D) when former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) announced he would run -- just before the state's filing deadline. . Rossi is no longer the fresh face he was when he nearly beat Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) in 2004, but he is a skilled candidate and a proven fundraiser. This is a real recruiting success for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. (Previous ranking: N/A)

8. Missouri (R): The Show Me State Senate race is one of the toughest in the country to get a handle on. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is touted by Democrats as one of their top -- if not their best -- recruits in the country. And, while Rep. Roy Blunt (R) has performed impressively on the fundraising front and is, by all accounts, a very savvy politician, he will have to defend his years as a member of the House Republican leadership team. Still, Missouri was the only targeted state in 2008 that went for Sen. John McCain (Ariz), which suggests there is a considerable (and non-persuadable) Republican base in the state. (Previous ranking: 10)

7. Pennsylvania (D): Sestak's victory creates a fascinating general election matchup with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) -- two iconoclastic members who have built their reputations on doing things their own way. Toomey's may be the most underrated campaign in the country; with little fanfare or press attention, he has not only moved to the middle ideologically but has also banked $4.6 million for the race ahead. Sestak's quirky appeal is not to be underestimated, however, particularly in an election cycle like this one, where different is better in the eyes of voters. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Illinois (D): Kirk's inability to put out the fire caused by a discrepancy in his military resume suggests that the candidate, who, before this controversy, had run a flawless race, might not be so perfect after all. Combine Kirk's problems with those of Giannoulias, which are still majorly problematic even though they haven't gotten much attention of late, and you have a recipe for what we believe will be the nastiest Senate race in the country this fall. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. Nevada (D): Angle's victory on Tuesday night puts Reid somewhere he hasn't been in a long time: in the game. Before then, it was almost impossible for a thinking person to carve out a path for Reid to reelection. Now, with Angle's controversial stands on a variety of issues, you can see how the Senate majority leader could turn the race into a choice rather than a referendum this fall. Still, and we can't emphasize this strongly enough, Reid has lingered in the low 40s in general election matchups (against Angle and everyone else) for the better part of the last year, and his favorable ratings are still in the 30s. Not impressive for any politician -- particularly one who has spent as much time in office as Reid. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Indiana (D): Democrats like their matchup in the Hoosier State: telegenic two-term Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) against former Senator (and lobbyist) Dan Coats (R). But President Obama's win in Indiana in the last presidential election belies the conservative nature of the state. Coats may not be the right profile for an outsider election like this one, but he is running in the right state in the right year. (Previous ranking: 6)

3. Arkansas (D): Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D) surprise runoff victory on Tuesday night over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is almost certain to give her a temporary boost in her general election race against Rep. John Boozman (R). But, can Lincoln sustain that momentum for the next five months or so? Arkansas went strongly against President Obama in 2008 and stayed there. It's a tough road for Lincoln, although she's already beat the political expectations game once in this election. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Delaware (D): Democrats like what they see from Newcastle County Executive Chris Coons. And, against most Republicans in the Democratic state of Delaware, Coons would be in the driver's seat. But, Republicans recruited Rep. Mike Castle, the popular moderate congressman and former governor, as their nominee. Expect Coons to try to use Castle's long record of service in the state against him in this anti-incumbent year. But, Castle has used those years in office to build deep relationships across the state that will be hard for Coons to break. (Previous ranking: 3)

"The question is, is the public watching? Do the baggers know that their own party is selling them out to Wall Street, or are they too simple to understand? Posted by: drindl"

We hope so, but that same oompah-loompah from Westchester was caught on TV passing out Tobacco lobby checks from tobacco companies, so it is hard to say.

Today, of course, having run out of novel stupidities to use as the GOP response to the Presidents Saturday Message, John went back to "The President is spending the peoples Tax Dollars unwisely." Is there a term comparable to dyslexia for a total inability to read and remember history?

NO room, since the standard narative, Dems have to lose seats, won't let that race in

Actually, givenm that Rand Paul gets to choose from columns A, B, and C, and no choice helps, and Portman might as well run under the name George W Bush, and Charlie Crist has discovered that he is free to r5un as a moderate and try to carry the center, politically and geographically, in Florida, to gain seats the R's have to take away 4 Dems seats.

Paul's choices, A: Avoid the press at all costs, B:Try to run as a moderate, a roll that he simply can't carry off convincingly, or C: Be Rand Paul and alienate Kentucky, aren't all that appetizing. Then again, Portman "as an economic problem-solver. " is even harder for Rob to play convincingly than Rand playing a moderate, since he was Bush's front man in exporting jobs. We can even hang getting China MFN status. But he CAN'T take credit for a single job coming to Ohio, just lots of them leaving.

OHIO and Kentucky ought to be right on top of the list.

Nevada and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, were always shimmering mirages for the republicans, and Angle didn't do anything to change that fantasy. Toomey can try to play moderate in PA but no more convincingly than John Wayne as Gengis Kahn. OR John Wayne as Maria von Trapp.

@WillSeattle: yeah I remember Murray's first race, against some hairspray guy who'd been a TV news anchor or something, loaded with conservative BS and slavishly devoted to Big Business. The CW said that "tennis shoes" Patty couldn't possibly beat the good ol' boy but beat him she did and now I can't even remember his name.

Replace #9 - Sen. Patty Murray (who was not wanted by the party elitists when she first ran, trust me, I was one of her first 100 donors) - will win this easily against Dino "Three Strikes Failure" Rossi ...

With a Shut-Out win for the Democrats in South Carolina.

America has had enough of Republican incumbents who hate America and our President. And we're voting.

37thand0 street: What lies are you claiming that are made every day? Give me 1 or 2 examples... And how can you blithely say that the only thing Dems could get Bush on was no WMD in Iraq? That's a very HUGE lie!! It's cost thousand's of lives!!!!

you are right I proudly supported Hillary up until June 2008 at which point I briefly supported McCain until I realized what an absolute hypocrit and fool he had become. And your point?
Actually zouk now that you mention it we had this discussion in October 2008 when you spammed this site, insulted everyone and insisted that you were ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that McCain would win convincingly 2 weeks later. wrong.
You might also mention that I posted on monday
that Hillary is a team player, will not be
Obama's VP in 2012 and will not be running against him contray to what a Hillary supporter
posted here.
Curious why the nonsense about Hillary other
than for you to continue your idiotic personal attacks, which you have become quite skilled at delivering.
Again do you agree with Boehner that the federal govt should Bailout BP if they should end up in receivorship?

BumblingBerry said: "It’s because she is a successful, powerful woman who is definitely not a liberal feminist, and because she is an authentic American women of her time.

Palin is a success in her career, while she is also a mother facing the kind of difficulties in her family that sound all too real to many American families. She lives the daily juggling act that liberal feminists only write about."
_______________________________________
Oh, please! First, yes she's successfully made money giving "talking-point" speeches to those who hang on every word she says but don't realize that she's dumber than stone and most of what she says is factually wrong. Yes, she's got cutsy drivel that pours from her mouth, but any "thinking" person quickly realizes that what she's saying is nonsense.
And I haven't figured out what her career is...please enlighten me.... I hear she was a mayor of a small town..that's a good job..she could have been had a career in politics, but quitting in the middle of your term as governor...not a career building move.
Please don't try to portray her as authentic... that gives the rest of us a bad name. When she actually says something intelligent or actually appears to care that she's away from her family running around the country as she is, then I'll reconsider my opinion of her, but I think she's a ditsy lady who came into the national spotlight...loves it...and will say anything to remain in it. Just as Glenn Beck is pure entertainment (no substance or truth), so is Ms. Palin.

as an investor in HP since its inception in Houston we saw what Carly DID TOO HP. Her
mgmt style was so bad that after its acquisition of Digital Computer, the company's
stock plumetted from 65 to 18 and thousands
in the Houston campus were layed off. That is why she was fired and her replacement Mark Hurd has brilliantly doubled HP's revenues,its product mix and its intl exposure and seen the stock return from 18(under Carly) back to 54 and now a respectable 47.20. Carly's first test as your new nominee: I dislike my opponent's hair style and hot mike comment Whitman was dumb to appear on Fox and especially with Hannity. She is as lousy a politician as she was a CEO and
yea bragging at a sharehholders metting that
my fmily attended how great it was to offshore HP jobs brought booing from her sharehholders.

As to family values Sarah having her unwed dgtr knocked up in her home and throwing her wedding ring away is a great role model for the GOP family values crowd. Are Progressives afraid of her? H*** no. We want to see more of her. Would bet you $100 bucks that neither Carly nor Meg want her Drill Baby Drill heard anywhere near Santa Barbara or La Jolla on their behalf but since Carly is politically challenged you never know. By the way a recent Alaskan poll showed only 44% of Alaskans support her(but what would they know), but if it makes you feel better blame the Ds for Palin's miserable numbers. She should stick to hocking her ghost written books at Costco for $4.95(check it out next time you are at Costco $4.95).

As for Sharron Angle, if you listen to Reid's paid shills in Nevada, she's a right-wing nut who would dismantle all the successful, necessary agencies of government and is backed by gun-toting militias full of Timothy McVeigh wannabes.

Apparently, Angle has the temerity to question the effectiveness of the federal Department of Education, and other monuments to wasteful, failed (and unconstitutional) liberal programs. And Americans who understand the importance of the 2nd Amendment do support her. Reid will soon find out that those supporters include the majority of Nevadans.

Hard times caused by failing Obama policies championed by Boxer and Reid cannot be forever masked by extending unemployment benefits.

What is the proper role of government regulation now that the most regulated parts of the economy (banks, insurance and oil companies, for example) have experienced the most failure while the least regulated parts of the economy (Apple, for example) are the only good news we have.

In foreign policy, now that bowing to foreign despots and apologizing for America has not brought greater security but rather emboldened America's enemies to new levels of atrocity, is “Peace Through Strength” an idea whose time has come again ?

Nikki Haley has shown that personal attacks can be turned to an advantage, and I wish Carly and Sharron the same success in the coming mud-slinging season,

More importantly these women have the opportunity to re-state the vision that inspired generations of Americans: Liberty guarded by a limited government, low taxes, an opportunity society anchored in personal responsibility, a free-market economy spreading the wealth to all who choose to earn it.

What the liberal elites cannot stand about both women goes far beyond disagreement over their political views.

Both women were endorsed by Sarah Palin. Palin's endorsement in these races and others (notably Nikki Haley) made a positive difference. By contrast, Obama's endorsement didn't help Arlen Specter, or John Corzine, Creigh Deeds or Martha Coakley and only Bill Clinton saved Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.

Why does Palin and everything she says and does provoke such a torrent of bile and abuse from the left? It’s because she is a successful, powerful woman who is definitely not a liberal feminist, and because she is an authentic American women of her time.

Palin is a success in her career, while she is also a mother facing the kind of difficulties in her family that sound all too real to many American families. She lives the daily juggling act that liberal feminists only write about.

Worse yet for the liberal elites in government, academia, and the media, she is politically powerful because she is authentic.

The gap between arrogant ruling liberal elites and "We the People," which fueled the Tea Party movement in the first place, has never been more apparent than when comparing the Botox phony feminist with a real accomplished American woman.

So get ready Carly and Sharron. The tornado of bitter, mean, false labels and charges is just beginning.

In Fiorina's case, Boxer has already previewed the witch's brew. According to Senator (don't call me ma'am) Boxer, Fiorina, as CEO of Hewlett-Packard, deliberately outsourced American jobs overseas, violated environmental standards and gouged her employees and the consuming public in a greedy drive to amass an obscene fortune while she, Barbara Boxer, by contrast has devoted her life to public service and the public good. Translation: Carly has actually created thousands of private sector jobs.

leichtman1, I admit Connecticut is a stretch but Quinn has it at 20 points now using RV not LV like Rass. McMahon has the war chest but maybe the voters don't care if Dem is a pathological liar about Vietnam.

The democrats complaining about "the economy which Obama inherited" is RIDICULOUS.

The democrats played a major role in getting the economy to that point - Bill Clinton DEREGULATED THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS and repealed Glass Steagall.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were creatures of the democrats.

Whenever I hear that - IT IS A BOLDFACE LIE -

Obama promised a different brand of politics - BUT IF HE IS GOING TO LIE EVERYTIME HE MAKES A SPEECH, IT JUST POISONS THE ATMOSPHERE - EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT OBAMA PROMISED.

This is ridiculous - I don't believe there is ANY PRESIDENT IN HISTORY WHO HAS GONE OUT THERE AND LIED ABOUT THE OTHER PARTY TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT OBAMA HAS - EVERY TIME - ALMOST EVERY DAY OF OF EVERY WEEK - LIES FROM OBAMA.

All the democrats complained about Bush was the weapons of mass destruction - AND THERE WERE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN IRAQ.

But the LIES OF OBAMA are over the top - and completely uncalled fo.

Obama has to start acting like the President - taking partisan jabs every time - and LYING EVERY DAY - doesn't help at all.

So chicken lady would have been "impossible" to beat? Give me a break. Lowden wilted like flower under attacks and got blown out by 14 and you're trying to tell me she was a shoe-in against Reid? If anything GOP dodged a bullet with her lost. Only a fool would think that ditz had any chance against Reid.

Wow Kentucky and Nevada are in play all of a sudden? Stop the liberal mythology Chris. There is no evidence to back that up. However back in the real world Wisconsin, Washington, and Connecticut are now in play for GOP. Dems are clearly in worse shape than a month ago. It's becoming more and more apparent that Dems will lose the Senate this year.

you think you could throw in some additional
nasty references about Ds. By the way who is Berry?
Talk about being spelling challenged. You would think that if you were going to constantly ...

==

Why even bother? The guy is a mental case and all he does here is paste screeds from the hate industry and insults at other posters, really twisted and immature insults at that. After all this time doing nothing else but disintegrate further, you really should have no expectation of him doing anything else. Join the rest of us in skipping over his posts, seen one you've literally seen them all.

We should welcome the rise of the right-wing nut jobs. They will, and have, placed absolute fruitcakes on the Republican ballot and will help pave the way for the US to regain some semblance of rational government.

We have had thirty years of "greed is good" and "don't pay for government." Look what that has brought us! It is time for a change!

The poll referred to by screwjob16, where Angle is up by 11 points, is one where it is possible to stuff the ballot box by voting multiple times. I tried it, worked fine for me. But then, it was put up by Fox News, not technically savvy enough to know how to prevent it. In other words, that poll is a fraud.

A berry is a fruity and delicious edible and colorful taste sensation. they tend to go bad and rot very quickly, so it is best to dispose of them quickly, before their softness and limited shelf life, due to exposure to the real world, emerges.

How is Kentucky not on this list? Especially over Washington Ohio, and Missouri. Rand Paul is whole lot of crazy and Conway has won state office before. CC, I never say this but your list is a tad GOP biased today.

you think you could throw in some additional
nasty references about Ds. By the way who is Berry?
Talk about being spelling challenged. You would think that if you were going to constantly and personally insult YOUR POTUS you could learn how to spell your insult.
Asked you a simple question zouk and the answer is now clear. Have you ever said anything even remotely critical here about ANY R Congressman? And you must agree with Boehner that the US govt should Bailout BP and that it is UnAmerican to criticize BP.

All of those cell towers you see all over America are NOT all for phone calls.

Some of them are TORTURE TOWERS -- part of a nationwide microwave/laser radio frequency "directed energy weapon" system that is being used by operatives of the multi-agency Homeland Security-run "fusion center" network to silently torture, impair, and physically and neurologically degrade the functioning and well-being of extrajudicially, unjustly '"targeted" citizens...

And apparently, this precision-targeted domestic weapon system being used to attack and harm U.S. citizens has been deployed WITHOUT THE CONSENT OF CONGRESS or high state officials.

WHEN WILL CONGRESS PROBE EXTRAJUDICIAL TARGETING AND TORTURE IN AMERICA...

...AND CALL SECRET SERVICE DIRECTOR MARK SULLIVAN AS THE FIRST WITNESS?

"Yesterday, the Senate voted 53-47 to block Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) resolution that would have stripped the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of its power to regulate carbon emissions. Murkowski’s resolution was aimed at overturning the EPA’s scientific finding, mandated by the Supreme Court, that manmade greenhouse gases endanger the American public.

On a local right-wing radio show, He claimed that the EPA, “a non-governmental agency” would be empowered:

BROWN: Well, I’m looking out for jobs and jobs in Massachusetts and throughout the country. And to give a non-governmental agency the ability to regulate the way that they have the potential to, they can regulate churches and restaurants and drop it all the way down from the big emitters to the very smallest emitters and it’s not appropriate."

It's not so much that the Democrap Socialist Parties chances have "improved"(according to Democrap Socialist partisan shill Chris Cilizza) for them in the upcomming midterms, it's that the Democrap Socialist Party--controlled Main Stream Media has successfully censored and down-played all the bad news happening in the last couple of months, in order to not do political damage to Comrade Obama and the Democrap Socialist Parties candidates.
They've successfully censored and downplayed all of Comrade Obama's Keystone Kop-like incompetent handling of the BP oil spill disaster, by shifting all the blame on the BP company and away from Comrade Obama (they'd have blamed GW Bush for everything within a week, had this happened under his watch. Comrade Obama though, gets a free pass).
They've successfully put the lid on all news about the ILLEGAL Sestak and Romanoff job bribes by Comrade Obama, and his trying to subvert our Constitutions election process (it hasn't made the news in over a week now, surprise, surprise, and probably won't).
They've successfully downplayed the fact that Comrade Obama's "approved" candidate has lost in all the elections and nominations so far, especially when this ahole went on the stump with him/her to try to help that candidate/nominee. In Pa.'s 12th (Murtha's seat with a Democrap Socialist 3-1 registered voter advantage) the Democrap Socialist nominee actually ran against Comrade Obama on every issue, and sounded more like a Republican.
The bottom line is that with a Democrap Socialist Party--controlled Main Stream Media working in the Democrap Socialist Parties and Comrade Obama's behalf, and squelching and sensoring all news that might do political damage to their party and candidates, and at the same time working to dig up (or make up) dirt on all Republican candidates/nominees, from now until the midterms, the Democrap Socialist's will always improve their election chances.
Just wondering Chris, how much is the Democrap Socialist Party paying you to work in their behalf?

Democrats obviously live in a bubble because the majority of Americans are frustrated and disillusioned by the political jargon of broken promises....Where are all the jobs the Stimulus Package was going to help create? The democratic majority chose to focus on everything except what Americans wanted.....Let Harry Reid and all of the other democrats whose seat is up for re-election think they actually have a chance but they will see otherwise...

reason5, I agree with your top 9, but don't think WA is in play, much to Cc's dismay. Also, McMahon has no shot in CT. She will make it entertaining, but unless there is a big skeleton in RB's closet (always a possibility with any politician it seems), she will be a double digit loser.

BP's chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg has been summoned to a meeting with President Barack Obama next Wednesday to answer questions about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, an official letter said.

Berry thought that since all HE does is lie to people and tell them what they want to hear and actually never accomplishes anything, that all large organizations were like that and it was pointless to even try. After all, when we ask him, it has no effect.

1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Indiana
4. Arkansas
5. Colorodo
6. Nevada
7. Florida: I think Charlie Crist is in the driver's seat to win this seat now. Will he vote for Durbin or McConnell? I believe Crist votes for McConnell to be majority leader and caucuses with Republicans. So even though Rubio may lose and Crist may win as an independent, he will be like a Lieberman- Republican with an independent tint. Still, Florida loses the R label to an I label.
8. Illinois
9. Pennsylvania
10. Washington
My top 15 is:
11. Wisconsin- With Johnson in the race, Feingold is vulnerable. Johnson will win the R primary and has a real shot to win the GE in November.
12. Missouri
13. Ohio
14. Connecticut- Don't underestimate McMahon's millions, as she has unlimited money to advertise and cast Blumenthal as a typical lying politician. She has a shot to win.
15. Kentucky- With Paul as the nominee, it gives Conway a shot...although a small shot to win. Paul is the major favorite, but Conway still has a small shot.

"Meanwhile, the chairman of the powerful Greenville County Republican Party called for Knotts to be “expelled from the party.” “I cannot sit idly by and watch our Party be torn apart by Senator Jake Knotts’ bigotry,” Patrick Haddon said in a statement. Even Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), an ally of Knotts who infamously shouted “you lie” to President Obama during an address to Congress, condemned Knotts, saying, “I was hurt and disgusted to hear Senator Jake Knotts direct such offensive slurs at a community which is very close to me.”

In response to the censure, Knotts said he “could care less” and would not resign. In a separate interview, he said the censure was “all politics,” and warned that libertarians had “infiltrated” the party. He said he had not called Haley to personally apologize, and that the “press has given Nikki Haley a free ride.”

When a reporter asked where the press had failed to hold her accountable, Knotts said, “have you ever asked her if she believes in Jesus Christ as her lord and savior and that he died on the cross for her sins? Have you ever asked her that?”

"Via Mike Allen, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has some advice for President Obama on the BP spill:

“What he needed was sort of a bullhorn moment where he went to the Gulf and said we're going to get this right. I'm going to get on it.’ ... [H]e's making up lost ground.”

Ah, yes. President Obama just needs to handle the BP spill like George W. Bush handled 9/11. Can you imagine how great it would be? President Obama would put on some waders and step into oil-ravaged Louisiana wetland. And then he'd grab a bullhorn and tell the assembled fishermen that he could hear them, and the whole world could hear them, and that we're going to get the people who spilled all this oil into the Gulf of Mexico. And then we'd go and attack Venezuela or something. Just like Bush."

The Department of Education was created as a straight political payoff to the teachers’ unions by Pres. Jimmy Carter (in return for their 1976 endorsement). According to the National Center for Education Statistics, DE’s original budget, in 1980, was $13.1 billion (in 2007 dollars), and it employed 450 people. By 2000, it had increased to $34.1 billion, and by 2007 it had more than doubled to $73 billion. The budget request for fiscal 2011 is $77.8 billion, and the department employs 4,800.

All of this spending has done nothing to improve American education. Between 1973 and 2004, a period in which federal spending on education more than quadrupled, mathematics scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress rose just 1 percent for American 17-year-olds. Between 1971 and 2004, reading scores remained completely flat.

Comparing educational achievement with per-pupil spending among states also calls into question the value of increasing expenditures. While high-spending Massachusetts had the nation’s highest proficiency scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, low-spending Idaho did very well, too. South Dakota ranks 42nd in per-pupil expenditures but eighth in math performance and ninth in reading. The District of Columbia, meanwhile, with the nation’s highest per-pupil expenditures ($15,511 in 2007), scores dead last in achievement.

Like the WIC program, which was originally aimed at low-income pregnant and nursing women and babies but has expanded to cover 50 percent of American infants, the Elementary and Secondary Education Act was designed to aid low-income and minority populations in 1965, but has since morphed into the No Child Left Behind law, which affects every student in the country.

The Education Department has done more than waste money. Busy bureaucrats have created reams of paperwork for teachers and administrators, pushed dubious curricula, such as bilingual education, and adopted manifold extra-educational missions. The department’s website lists hundreds of programs that bear little to no relation to schooling, including the “Spinal Cord Injuries Model Systems Program,” the “Small Business Innovation Research Program,” “Protection and Advocacy of Individual Rights,” the “Predominantly Black Institutions Program,” “Life Skills for State and Local Prisoners,” “Institute for International Public Policy,” “Grants to States to Improve Management of Drug and Violence Prevention Programs,” “Grants to Reduce Alcohol Abuse,” and the “Developing Hispanic-Serving Institutions Program,” to name just a handful. No one checks. There is no accountability. There are no consequences for failure, except perhaps requests for even greater funding next year.

The Department of Education is a great, burbling vat of waste, and it is not extremist to say so.

Meanwhile, Congress is working on financial reform -- Democrats wanting to strengthen it, Republicans not so much:

"In February of this year Boehner met James Dimon, the chairman and CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, at a Capitol Hill restaurant. Over drinks, Boehner reminded Dimon that House Republicans, led by Boehner himself, had consistently worked to block efforts by the President and Congressional Democrats to curb Wall Street payouts and pass regulatory reform of the financial industry, and that such obstructionism should not go unappreciated by Wall Street campaign contributors.

A month later, speaking before the American Bankers Association about the proposed Senate bill, Boehner told the crowd of bankers that even if the Senate were to pass a bill, he was confident that reconciling it with the House version would delay reform for at least another year. And after assuring the bankers of delay in the House of the much needed reform bill, Boehner encouraged the bankers to stand up for themselves against Congressional efforts at regulating Wall Street."

The question is, is the public watching? Do the baggers know that their own party is selling them out to Wall Street, or are they too simple to understand?

bsimon -- you should have a blog -- you are not blinded by CC's beltway CWs and prejudices. If you are still on the chat, would you ask CC why he tolerates spammers and posters who bleat constantly about pedophilia and bestiality?

The Fix explains, in chat, the removal of FL from the line:
"Everything I hear -- from Crist allies and detractors -- is that there is MUCH more to come on the Jim Greer story and what comes out will not look good for the governor.

That, plus my belief that Democrats will ultimately leave Crist and come home to the party nominee, makes me think that the race is shaping up pretty nicely for Marco Rubio."

The Greer angle is interesting, but I'm skeptical of the Dems 'coming home' to Meek theory. Moreso, the explanation that 'stuff will come out' on Crist is weak, while also ignoring that candidates like Angle are on the fringe & ripe for being marginalized. In short: if the Line represents how the races stand today, FL should be on there. If its more predictive, lower NV, and probably PA. And WA; hasn't Rossi already lost statewide multiple times? Why would voters pull the lever for him now?

Linda McMahon may not have picked up much in the polls - but Blumenthal is one gaffe away from oblivion - Blumenthal is lucky to be where he is now - Connecticut might be in play because Blumenthal is extremely shallow.

The democrats have been trying - straining - to fool themselves into thinking that Obama has not destroyed the party - but Obama has -

And what is worse is people DO NOT want to give Obama a second chance - the anger is there, and people have made up their minds.

This silliness about Bill Clinton coming out to help is ridiculous - Bill Clinton will not change anyone's vote -

And the few races in which Bill Clinton has been involved - those places are unique - and they will not apply country-wide in the fall.

Obama had his chance - and the perfect excuse - to drop health care after Scott Brown won in January -

Obama did it to himself - and he continues to lie on a daily basis - so that is not helping him either.

Obama is isolating himself

The image of Obama in his suit kneeling down to pick up a tiny piece of tar on a beach - it was just so out-of-touch and lacking in everything that has to be communicated.

It goes DIRECTLY TO THE TEAM THAT OBAMA PUT ON THE FIELD.

Obama has an affirmative action set of appointees - he is playing with a third-rate team - AND IT SHOWS.

"Jon Stewart had Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty on his show last night, and asked him whether he was planning on running for President in 2012. Pawlenty replied that he doesn't have the things a candidate needs to run these days: "I don't have a billion dollars. I don't have novelty. I don't have a big schtick."

From the beginning, the Obama strategy toward Iran and other rogue states had been to offer good will and concessions on the premise that this would lead to one of two outcomes: (a) the other side changes its policy or, (b) if they don’t, the world isolates the offending state and rallies around us — now that we have demonstrated last-mile good intentions.

Hence, nearly a year and a half of peace overtures, negotiation, concessions, two New Year’s messages to the Iranian people, a bit of groveling about U.S. involvement in the 1953 coup, and a disgraceful silence when the regime’s very stability was threatened by peaceful demonstrators.

Iran’s response? Defiance, contempt, and an acceleration of its nuclear program.

And the world’s response? Did it rally behind us? The Russians and Chinese bargained furiously and successfully to hollow out the sanctions resolution. Turkey is openly choosing sides with the region’s “strong horse” — Iran and its clients (Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas) — as it watches the United States flailingly try to placate Syria and appease Iran while it pressures Israel, neglects Lebanon, and draws down its power in the region.

To say nothing of Brazil. Et tu, Lula?

This comes after 16 months of assiduously courting these powers with one conciliatory gesture after another: “resetting” relations with Russia, kowtowing to China, lavishing a two-day visit on Turkey highlighted by a speech to the Turkish parliament in Ankara, and elevating Brazil by supplanting the G-8 with the G-20. All this has been read as American weakness, evidence that Obama can be rolled.

The result is succinctly, if understatedly, captured in Wednesday’s Washington Post headline “U.S. alliance against Iran is showing new signs of vulnerability.”

No Kentucky is crazy enough to agree with paul. If he shuts up he will win. Angie is being tutored on what to say and how to act, my guess is she will act like a mainstream conservative but i doubt she will fool anyone.
My bet is Crist wins Florida with most democrats going his way and Reid should win. I can see losses being held to 4 or 5 seats. Dems have a good chance in both Pa&
Il.

Congress has been crafting sanctions legislation against Iran that would make the Obama administration's paltry efforts at the UN look pitiful by comparison. Not surprisingly, the administration is working to squelch the legislation.

The Los Angeles Times:

The Obama administration, which labored for months to impose tough new United Nations sanctions against Iran, now is pushing in the opposite direction against Congress as it crafts U.S. sanctions that the White House fears may go too far.
Administration officials have begun negotiations with congressional leaders, who are working on versions of House and Senate bills that would punish companies that sell refined petroleum products to Iran or help the country's oil industry.

Unlike the U.N. measures, congressional action would pertain only to U.S. policies and agencies and would not be binding on other countries. Other countries and groups of nations also are considering adopting measures to augment the U.N. action.

In fact, much of Europe, including France and Great Britain, have indicated that they would join America in such a sanctions regime. But Obama has made it clear that he thinks congressional sanctions as they are now drawn would anger Russia and China, who don't mind selling refined petroleum products to Iran at all. So instead of sanctions with teeth, we are likely to see a mirror image of what the UN is trying to do.

More evidence - if anyone needed any - that the Obama administration is simply going through the motions of opposing Iranian nuclear policy; that they have already accepted a de facto nuclear Iran

No Kentucky is crazy enough to agree with paul. If he shuts up he will win. Angie is being tutored on what to say and how to act, my guess is she will act like a mainstream cinservative but i doubt she will fool anyone.
My bet is Crist wins Florida with most democrats going his way and Reid should win. I can see losses being held to 4 or 5eats. Dems have a good chance in both Pa&
Il.

"The tea party movement and their corporate-funded astroturf backers at FreedomWorks often claim to be fighting “big government.” Now, local chapters of the tea party and FreedomWorks are collaborating to plan a protest in Gwinnet County, Georgia, to voice their latest grievance against government powers — mandatory home trash collection."

That's right, folks, the trailer trash crowd objects to trash collection. Apparently, they want to make sure their right to rats and broken furniture on their front porch is not impinged upon.

Aand repubican plans for recovery? Tax cuts... and we'll pay for them with more tax cuts! Same old voodoo economics that caused the meltdown.

Another reporter asked Boehner if he worried the tax cuts he envisions will deepen deficits. Boehner took a turn on the Laffer curve.

"You equate the idea of lowering marginal tax rates with less revenue for the federal government," Boehner cautioned. "We've seen over the last 30 years that lower marginal tax rates have led to a growing economy, more employment, and more people paying taxes. And if you look at the revenue growth over those 30 years, you've got a prime example of what we've been talking about."

This is the reverse of the truth. In the years after the Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush tax cuts, economic growth and employment were significantly lower than they were after Bill Clinton's 1993 tax increases. According to Michael Ettlinger and John Irons of the Center for American Progress, "Over the seven-year periods after each legislative action, average annual growth was 3.9 percent following [Clinton's 1993 tax increase], 3.5 percent following [Reagan's 1981 tax cut], and 2.5 percent following [Bush's 2001 tax cut]."

But beyond the factual contradiction, Boehner appeared to be in denial about the real impact of the Bush tax cuts. Another reporter followed up: "Are you saying that the Bush tax cuts didn't affect the deficits that we're in now?"

Jonathan Capehart wrote, "African American men are taught at very young ages (or learn the hard way) to keep our emotions in check, to not lose our cool, lest we be perceived as dangerous or menacing."

Hey Jonathan, could you let black rap and hip hop artists know about that? Apparently they didn't get the memo.
Thanks!

Unfortunately, neither black nor white liberals will let Obama's comment or certain reactions to it pass without turning it into an incident with racial implications. The Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart wrote, "African American men are taught at very young ages (or learn the hard way) to keep our emotions in check, to not lose our cool, lest we be perceived as dangerous or menacing."

Similarly, Halperin got exercised over Drudge's headline "Obama goes street: seeking 'ass to kick,'" which, according to Halperin, "includes this photo of an angry-looking Barack Obama. I think it's all pretty clear to all of us what's going on."

I suppose that depends on who "us" is. If it means skin pigment-obsessed, psychologically projecting liberal hand-wringers, then I might agree, though I would hope that not too great a percentage of liberals are pigment-obsessed, psychologically projecting hand-wringers.

Bsimon, I thought PA and NV were kind of high, but I don't know what I would put in their places.

Republicans are about 100% to take ND and about 75% to take Del. and Ark. Other than that, nothing likes any better than a coin flip for either side. Maybe Ohio. But it's looking a hell of a lot better for Dems than it did back last summer.

I also take off Washington and add on New Hampshire. Not sure why it came off the list.

Also, I'm not sure how Crist is being counted. If a Crist win means that we are counting it as changed seat, it belongs on the line. If only a Dem win counts as a change, then no, it doesn't.

Leave it to my wife to come up with a jewelry metaphor for Barack Obama. Obama is, according to my bride, the political equivalent of cubic zirconia. Usually sold to people who love the look of diamonds but can't afford a real one or are fooled into buying an imposter, cubic zirconia is superficially pretty and appealing. But when subjected to the scrutiny of an expert or when placed under great pressure, the falseness and weakness compared to the real thing become apparent.

The pressure analogy is particularly appropriate given that the source of Barack Obama's troubles lie a mile under the ocean's surface, where pressures are about one ton per square inch. The pressure of the situation is causing Obama's vaunted reputation as "competent" to crack like the false promise it always was.

He has to put in the 'slightly' because otherwise it's too painful to write.

And 3-time loser Dino Rossi -- his plans for Washington state? Rossi told the Associated Press he wants to build a "high wall" at the U.S.-Mexico border. Maybe he needs a little geography lesson.

Portman's 'plans' to create jobs in Ohio? Cut taxes in a state with deep budget issues -- wow, just like he did under good old W, who drove the country into financial ruin.

And R Dan Coats in Indiana? Dan Coats didn’t just support the interests of big oil during his time in Congress. When he became a high-powered Washington lobbyist, he joined a firm that represented some of the oil industry’s biggest offenders – namely BP, the company chiefly responsible for the Deepwater Horizon disaster currently devastating the Gulf of Mexico.

Dan Coats supported the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, a measure passed in the wake of the Exxon Valdez spill that capped liability on economic damages from oil spills at $75 million.

The New York Times reported that “A count made by the Department of Homeland Security last August found that since 1991, there had been 51 instances in which liability exceeded caps.”

Nevada & Pennsylvania seem a bit high too. I suspect we'll see Angle & Toomey start falling behind in the coming months. The Kirk & Giannoulis race to the bottom is intriguing; Kirk should be able to recover & put Giannoulis back on the hot seat - that he hasn't thus far does not bode well for him. Lastly, why did FL drop off the line? That would seem to imply that The Fix views Rubio as more likely to hold that seat for the party than, say, Blunt in MO. Really?