Stephen E. Arnold: Venture Investments in Search Go Up In Smoke — Way Opens for Open Source Everything Solutions

Gee, impatient venture capital firms, grousing partners hungry for a payday, and agitated stakeholders, are these usually cheerful folks worrying about getting their money back with a hefty profit? My hunch is that some who wrote checks might be thinking about a vacation at WalMart instead of a couple of weeks bouncing around Europe or looking at animals in Africa from a Land Rover.

Only seven VC-backed tech companies have gone public so far this year, with just one more (Fitbit) currently on the pricing calendar for June. At this rate, 2015 could go down as the slowest year for VC-backed tech IPOs since the throes of the financial crisis. Moreover, there have been only two strategic sales of VC-backed tech companies valued at over $1 billion (Lynda.com to LinkedIn and Virtustream to EMC).

Forget training (online and walking around the parking lot). The worry may be that some outfits which have sucked in tens of millions of dollars may have — gasp! — liquidity issues and a downward valuation.

Phi Beta Iota: This problem applies to Palantir and other non-performers in the information access and sense-making space that is virtually non-existent. Palantir could still pull it out — a lot depends on how foolish Google and Facebook get as they desperately seek ways to shed excess capital and acquire ostensible capabilities — but on balance we think the next big big thing is Mozilla and Facebook coming together to get real about Open Source Everything.