Jan. 7, 2003, 16:00 PST (FTW) -- With mounting evidence
of the dangers inherent in mass smallpox vaccinations
and widespread skepticism about the efficacy and need
for such measures, a clear pattern is emerging that perhaps
the U.S. government and its allies -- particularly Israel
-- are not going to have an easy sell with these programs.

The Washington Post reported on Dec. 18 that two "prominent
teaching hospitals" are refusing to vaccinate their
employees against smallpox, even though their staffs
would be among the first responders in the event of a
biological attack. Officials at Grady Memorial Hospital
in Atlanta and at the Virginia Commonwealth University
in Richmond cited the risk of dangerous side effects
and possible inadvertent contamination of patients by
vaccinated workers as grounds for their refusals.

In Israel, as reported by Ha'aretz on Dec. 30, "Nearly
half of the Meuhedet HMO's staff [in Tel Aviv]
have refused to take the smallpox vaccine being offered
by the government." The refusals are widespread
throughout the Israeli health care system and have also
included some members of Israel's security forces
and rescue squads.

These refusals are as much a PR blow to the Bush Administration
and the Israeli government as anything else. And they
indicate that significant portions of the global population
have serious doubts about deeper agendas that possibly
lie beneath government warnings about bioterror attacks.

Earlier this year President Bush signed a bioterrorism
response bill providing huge windfall profits for pharmaceutical
companies. Bush followed that by issuing orders through
the Justice Department asking a court in a civil case
to seal records that have linked mandatory childhood
vaccinations as a possible cause of autism.

The recently passed Homeland Security bill also provides
immunity for vaccine makers in the event that recipients
of vaccines become ill or die after being vaccinated.
Under current Food and Drug Administration regulations,
smallpox vaccines do not have to be certified for efficacy
prior to being introduced into the general population.

A complex pattern of state and federal legislation is,
however, rapidly falling into place, which would allow
the government to make refusing a vaccination a crime,
punishable by incarceration, and which would also permit
forced vaccinations in declared health emergencies.

[The
Following Story was Posted Today on CNN –
It's
All About How The Money Works]

LONDON (Reuters) - Sales of vaccines, once considered
a commodity market, are booming with global revenues
set to reach nearly $10 billion in 2006 from $5.4 billion
in 2001, according to research published Tuesday.

Analysts at Merrill Lynch said the fastest growing section
of the market would be for flu vaccines, sales of which
are expected to more than double to $2 billion in the
next five years.

Much of the flu vaccine market's 16 percent compound
five-year growth will be driven by the entry of MedImmune
Inc. (MEDI: Research, Estimates)'s premium priced nasal
spray FluMist, which will be co-marketed by Wyeth (WYE:
Research, Estimates).

The launch of FluMist later this year, coupled with increasing
demand for pediatric vaccines, could see the overall
market leap by 20 percent in 2003 alone. Growth is then
expected to moderate to an annual 10 percent from 2004
to 2006.

Merrill's projection of 13 percent compound five-year
sales growth for the total vaccine market compares with
global drug sales growth of just eight percent in the
year to October, 2002, according to healthcare information
firm IMS Health.

The infant sector currently makes up the largest section
of the vaccine market, with 2001 sales of $2.5 billion,
but adult demand is growing as governments actively promote
flu shots for the elderly and more vaccines are used
by tourists.

At the same time, the threat of bioterrorism after the
Sept. 11 attacks on the United States has spawned a new
business in supplying vaccines against smallpox following
fears the deadly virus might be used as a weapon.

But a number of smaller companies are also carving out
a niche, including Britain's PowderJect Pharmaceuticals
Plc. and Acambis Plc (ACAM: Research, Estimates)., Switzerland's
Berna Biotech and Chiron Corp (CHIR: Research, Estimates).
of the U.S.

Merrill said it had initiated coverage of PowderJect
with a "buy" recommendation, reflecting its
strength in flu and travel vaccines, while Berna Biotech
was started as "neutral."

Acambis, however, was rated a "sell." The brokerage
predicted it would start losing money in 2005, after
a period of profitability on the back of U.S. government
contracts for smallpox vaccine.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Copyright 2003 Reuters. All rights reserved.
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