■ Expect divergence in rolling chip volume growth to continue

4Q15 is the second quarter that MBS has seen yoy growth in rolling chip volume (+1% yoy in US$ terms, higher in S$) after seven consecutive quarters of decline as a result of the anti-corruption drive in China.

While MBS’s rolling chip volume appears to have stabilised and found a bottom, we think GENS’s Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) will still see pressure as it continues to scale back on credit extension to Chinese VIPs.

■ RWS likely to see further near-term loss in mass GGR market share

MBS posted a new record high for mass win-per-day in S$ terms in 4Q15, which was up 6% yoy. We see this as a sign that RWS is likely to lose further mass GGR market share from 3Q15’s 40% in the near term as MBS continues to have the location advantage.

However, we project a reprieve over the medium term as RWS refocuses its efforts from VIP to mass while the addition of 550 hotel rooms at Genting Hotel Jurong in 3Q15 could drive better grind mass visitation.

■ Maintain Hold

We maintain our Hold call on GENS in view of near-term pressure in GGR as RWS continues to lose market share to MBS in both the VIP and mass segments.

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