Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: February–April 2015

Low to near median streamflows more likely

Low to near median streamflows recorded in January

The El Niño Southern Oscillation tracker status remains NEUTRAL

Streamflow forecast - February to April

For the February to April 2015 forecast period, low streamflows and near median streamflows are more likely at 27 and 25 of the 58 locations respectively where skill is acceptable. High flows are forecast at six locations. The forecast skill scores for the February to April period are moderate or high for most locations. Due to very low skill scores, the forecast has not been issued at 16 locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.

January catchment conditions

Low January streamflows were recorded at 37 of 74 locations in eastern Australia. Near median streamflows were recorded at 25 locations and high streamflows were recorded at 12 locations.

January rainfall was below average for the Cape York Peninsula and this was reflected in low streamflows in this region. Rainfall was above average in central parts of Queensland and most of New South Wales and Victoria. However, relatively dry soils in many of these areas meant that this rainfall resulted in low to median streamflows. Rainfall was 34% above average nationally and the Murray-Darling basin received 20% above average rainfall for January. State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

The tropical Pacific Ocean has eased away from the borderline El Niño observed during late 2014. Overall, the tropical Pacific region remains neutral. Climate influences include some residual warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a warm central Indian Ocean. International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within the neutral range for at least the next three months. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at El Niño NEUTRAL. The climate outlook video explains how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.