Desperate for a legislative victory, Republicans have rallied around tax reform as the last, best hope to salvage their political fortunes. But while there’s plenty of policy reasons to overhaul the tax code, it’s far from clear that the GOP version of legislation will improve the party’s prospects in next year’s midterms.

Polling shows that the president will need to do a slick sales job to convince the public that they’ll benefit from tax reform. A recently-released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows just 25 percent of registered voters approve of the Trump plan, while 35 percent oppose. A 40 percent plurality have no idea what’s even in the emerging tax proposal. These numbers, suggesting public unfamiliarity with a crucial White House initiative, are eerily similar to the early numbers on the failed Obamacare rollback.

Even more worrisome for Republicans: By nearly a 2-to-1 ratio, more voters think the plan will actually raise taxes (25 percent) than cut them (14 percent). Republican politicos desperately want to sell a “tax cut” to their constituents, but good luck making that case when tax cuts are being paired with the removal of deductions popular among many middle-class families.

The GOP can rely on the issue to gin up its partisans, with 54 percent of Republicans in favor of the Trump tax plan. But Democrats are more opposed than Republicans are supportive—making it hard to envision much bipartisan support behind a final package—and independent voters said the plan is a bad idea by a 7-point margin (29-22 percent).

If the White House had a record of successfully selling legislation to voters, it would be easier to believe that the administration could improve on these lackluster numbers. Instead, leading administration officials are casting the package in supply-side terms, emphasizing the macroeconomic gains from lowering corporate taxes instead of making the case that average Americans will have more money to spend as a result. As Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, told CNBC’s John Harwood this week, “We see the whole trickle-down through the economy, and that’s good for the economy.” These comments are a gift to Democrats, who are eager to cast the legislation as a giveaway to big business.

Meanwhile, Republican political strategists simply want the administration to emphasize “middle-class tax cuts” as the defining benefit of the legislation—figuring it’s a win-win proposition—but the reality is the emerging proposal isn’t a net-plus for everyone. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell acknowledged as much Friday, saying he “misspoke” when he claimed that “nobody in the middle class is going to get a tax increase.”

To make up for lost revenue from corporate- and income-tax cuts, the legislation would roll back popular deductions for mortgage interest and for state, local, and property taxes. That would disproportionately affect upper-middle class voters in affluent states with high tax rates, many of whom could see their overall tax burden increase as a result.

As The New York Times pointed out, a disproportionate number of vulnerable House Republicans represent districts in these wealthy blue-state suburban districts. Of the 37 most-vulnerable Republican seats, according the Cook Political Report, at least 20 of them are affluent areas in high-tax states. California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and Illinois alone are home to nearly half of House Democrats’ top targets in next year’s midterms. Most New Jersey and New York Republicans openly rebelled in last month’s House’s budget vote to protest the tax plan, making up 11 of the 20 votes in opposition.

The political calendar is creating the urgency for tax reform, not economic conditions or pent-up demand from voters. The economy has been growing steadily without any legislative tinkering. Tax reform is an issue that gets the entrepreneurial wing of the Republican Party excited, but it isn’t as energizing among the blue-collar voters who make up a growing share of the GOP. In swing-state Virginia, which shares similar demographics to many House battlegrounds, voters ranked taxes third behind health care and gun policy among their top issues in last week’s gubernatorial race.

Democrats are all too familiar with the pressure to pass legislation in hopes of forestalling political blowback. In 2010, they insisted that passing health care reform, despite its unpopularity, would be better than dealing with the stench of legislative failure in the midterms. They rallied to pass Obamacare into law—despite losing Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat—and suffered massive losses at the polls months later.

So in tackling tax reform, Republicans should focus on the merits of the legislation, not the politics. They will be facing fierce headwinds going into next year’s midterms, whether a tax package passes or not. As former Rep. Tom Davis, who chaired the House GOP’s campaign arm, told National Journal: “It’s a choice between passing an unpopular bill versus looking incompetent to govern.”

"President Trump signed a sweeping spending bill Friday afternoon, averting another partial government shutdown. The action came after Trump had declared a national emergency in a move designed to circumvent Congress and build additional barriers at the southern border, where he said the United States faces 'an invasion of our country.'"

Source:

REDIRECTS $8 BILLION

Trump Declares National Emergency

6 days ago

THE DETAILS

"President Donald Trump on Friday declared a state of emergency on the southern border and immediately direct $8 billion to construct or repair as many as 234 miles of a border barrier. The move — which is sure to invite vigorous legal challenges from activists and government officials — comes after Trump failed to get the $5.7 billion he was seeking from lawmakers. Instead, Trump agreed to sign a deal that included just $1.375 for border security."

Source:

COULD SOW DIVISION AMONG REPUBLICANS

House Will Condemn Emergency Declaration

1 weeks ago

THE DETAILS

"House Democrats are gearing up to pass a joint resolution disapproving of President Trump’s emergency declaration to build his U.S.-Mexico border wall, a move that will force Senate Republicans to vote on a contentious issue that divides their party. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said Thursday evening in an interview with The Washington Post that the House would take up the resolution in the coming days or weeks. The measure is expected to easily clear the Democratic-led House, and because it would be privileged, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would be forced to put the resolution to a vote that he could lose."

Source:

MILITARY CONSTRUCTION, DRUG FORFEITURE FUND

Where Will the Emergency Money Come From?

1 weeks ago

THE DETAILS

"ABC News has learned the president plans to announce on Friday his intention to spend about $8 billion on the border wall with a mix of spending from Congressional appropriations approved Thursday night, executive action and an emergency declaration. A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget."

Source:

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL SIGN

House Passes Funding Deal

1 weeks ago

THE DETAILS

"The House passed a massive border and budget bill that would avert a shutdown and keep the government funded through the end of September. The Senate passed the measure earlier Thursday. The bill provides $1.375 billion for fences, far short of the $5.7 billion President Trump had demanded to fund steel walls. But the president says he will sign the legislation, and instead seek to fund his border wall by declaring a national emergency."