What Happens if Chavez Doesn't Make His Inauguration?

In early December Hugo Chavez had his fourth cancer surgery in 18 months. The Venezuelan president has not appeared in public since, and could miss the inauguration of his fourth term in office, which is scheduled for January 10th.

Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo

Could 2013 signal the demise of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez? The socialist leader seems to be fighting for his life in a Cuban hospital bed, with varying reports circulating online about the state of his health.

His possible death, or the inability to be sworn in for his fourth term in office on January 10, could trigger a bizarre battle for succession within Chavismo. According to some observers, Vice President Nicolas Maduro and former military man, and National Assembly president, Diosdado Cabello, might clash as the country prepares for post-Chavez elections.

However, Venezuelan government officials claim there is unity within the ranks of the socialist revolution, with Cabello expressing on several occasions that he will stand by Chavez' orders, who has called on Venezuelans to vote for Maduro, if he cannot stay on as president.

The latest report from Spanish newspaper ABC published on Tuesday claims that Chavez is in an induced coma, on life support and that his aides and family members are planning a date in which to disconnect him from the machines that are keeping him alive. This information has been confirmed on Twitter by Rafael Marquina, a Venezuelan doctor that says he gets information leaked from Chavez´s medical staff. Marquina´s information is not official and he does not reveal his sources. But last week he correctly announced that Chavez had a respiratory infection that arose from post-surgery complications, one day before the Venezuelan government provided the same information on national TV. This suggests that Marquina may have some personal insight.

The Venezuelan government, however, maintains a more positive outlook on Chavez´s prospects.

On Tuesday Vice President Maduro said in a TV interview that Chavez´s condition is "delicate" but that he is conscious, aware of his health condition, and conserves "the same (emotional) strength as always." Although last week he also acknowledged on a nationally televised broadcast that Chavez was in a delicate state of health and that his recovery was "not exempt from risks." Some observers have taken this as a sign that Maduro is trying to prepare the Venezuelan population for news of Chavez´s death.

Meanwhile the web is rife with analysis of what could happen if Chavez fails to show up to the inauguration of his fourth term as President of Venezuela, which is scheduled for January 10.

So how will this play out? There are a few possible scenarios.

Venezuelan politics blog Caracas Chronicles suggests that January 5 will be the next big date in Venezuela´s complicated transition process because this is when the National Assembly meets to formally pick its next president. According to Venezuela´s constitution, the president of the National Assembly must act as the country´s leader if Chavez cannot be sworn into office on January 10, and until new elections are held.

The most likely figure to take on this role is Diosdado Cabello, who is the current president of the National Assembly. Cabello has close ties to the military and was one of the officers who participated in Chavez´s 1992 coup attempt against then President Carlos Andres Perez.