Kaepernick will have a very, very short career. As soon as he busts his knees, he'll be done.

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RGIII should be a wake up call.

The only way an NFL offense with a heavy read-option component makes any sense is if you keep 3 cheap college option QBs on you roster/PS. But the cheap ones are cheap because they don't have expensive arms. You'd really have to commit to a run-dominated offense. But NFL rules don't lend themselves to that. And if nobody wants to commit to it with Tebow and some guys, it's not going to happen.

Putting expensive and/or nearly irreplaceable talent in harms way will prove to have a short shelf life.

As an aside, Mayock made an interesting observation during the coverage of the LB Combine workouts. He noted that a number of the ILBs coming out are smaller but faster than the NFL prototype...a growing trend toward converted safeties...in order to combat read option. I don't think that's something you'd want to embrace in the NFL.

Kaepernick will have a very, very short career. As soon as he busts his knees, he'll be done.

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A lot of agreeing and disagreeing going on. I will give you a definite maybe. I have had that short career projection all along for Griffin and Wilson, however Kaepernick seems to be a sturdier guy - and faster in a football uniform even than Griffin at his best. Furthermore, it ain't the read option we need to worry about. It is his dropping back, not finding receivers, and taking off. It was said by somebody that he was like Tarkenton; I will add to that Randall Cunningham, and both of them had long productive careers. The Packers need to figure out how to stop that aspect of his game, and unlike Tarkenton and Cunningham for most of their careers, Kaepernick has a good team surrounding him. There needs to be some film study of how those two were defended, and even how opponents defend Aaron Rodgers now, as he does pretty much the same thing, just with better passing ability and less speed.

BTW, I'll risk the shitstorm by saying, I'd like to see the Packers give Tebow a try - a backup/3rd stringer with a little bit of that Wildcat or whatever. And if anybody can make him a real QB, it's McCarthy with his QB camps.

Solve the Kapernick issue: Hit him, and hit him hard.....wheather he has the ball or not.....make his a$$ afraid to run.

I don't care about a guy that seems "sturdy" or not, that is the reason McNabb finally decided to become a pocket passes rather than a run arounf vick type guy. He took big time shots and he didn't like it and was forced to become an actual QB. He had a much longer, more productive time being a QB rather than that run around crap.
Time and history has proved that if you run around like a fool all the time, you will get your bread toasted and be on the bench with injury. Perfect example in the recent past are RGIII and Mike Vick.

I have had that short career projection all along for Griffin and Wilson, however Kaepernick seems to be a sturdier guy - and faster in a football uniform even than Griffin at his best.

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If Griffin continues to play like he did this past season, his career will be short. Not sure why anyone would lump Wilson alongside Griffin in this regard, however. Seattle didn't run a lot of option until late in the season and Wilson was a primarily a pocket passer most of the year (check the stats). Anyone that's watched the Seattle rookie would recognize his talent for getting rid of the ball, sliding, or getting out of bounds when he is pressured; he's quite cerebral. Basically, Russell Wilson has great IQ for avoiding punishment and I think it's a mistake to assume he's going to have a short career at his current trajectory. Watch some Seattle tape.

I don't care about a guy that seems "sturdy" or not, that is the reason McNabb finally decided to become a pocket passes rather than a run arounf vick type guy. He took big time shots and he didn't like it and was forced to become an actual QB. He had a much longer, more productive time being a QB rather than that run around crap.

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Apples and oranges. Guys like McNabb and Tebow were much sturdier physical specimens. But they lacked the high-end speed that made players like Vick and Griffin so dangerous on the ground. Not sure that the comparison between these types works particularly well. Either way, regardless of how sturdy a player is, he can't take a limitless amount of punishment. McNabb had a relatively long career because he could throw from the pocket. I thought Vick struggled to play in the pocket for Reid as his speed began to fail him and this marked the end of his viability as an NFL QB.

As you may know, Jay, I'm about as big a Badger fan as you (class of '69). However, I said that because Wilson is small. After I wrote it, though, I got to thinking, he reminds me more of Tarkenton than Griffin. And yeah, he certainly does have the brains and discipline.

Vick was never a pocket passer and I may be wrong, but I don't think he has ever played a complete season.....that running QB crap will get ya punished more so than a pocket passer will.

McNabb did run a lot when he first got into the NFL, his first 4 years he ran more often than most QB's of his general era. You have to remember, they run a lot more now than they did when he was a QB. Granted there were a few who could haul azz and take off, but those guys were pure passers first and foremost (steve young for example) Vick, IMO, is kinda the modern pioneer of the rushing QB....guys tried to be like him and emulate his style only to be injured.....and Vick has never never ever had a good career stat line as a QB in % completion and many other categories due to the fact that he would rather run than to find a target or step up into the pocket. The eagles are one of the teams to be slated to be looking to draft Geno smith.....bad move, he is just Vick 2.0 and they will be right back in the sh!t house where they are now if they take him.

The running QB injury issue boil down to one thing that has nothing to do with size or speed:

How often is the QB running the ball on a called run or a run option? He gives up his QB rule protections in those cases, with defenders gunning for them. Look at the short shelf life of RBs as a result of knee and shoulder injuries. Bad things can happen, and often do, running through garbage.

These read-option QBs have no similarity to Tarkenton, McNabb, Cunningham, et. al. Those guys did not employ called runs through the line with any frequency...they gained yards scrambling. All QB must scramble...some just do it better than others. If you want an old timey comparison to a current read-option QB, Bobby Douglas is a name that comes to mind. He ran for runnings sake.

Vick was never a pocket passer and I may be wrong, but I don't think he has ever played a complete season.....that running QB crap will get ya punished more so than a pocket passer will.

McNabb did run a lot when he first got into the NFL, his first 4 years he ran more often than most QB's of his general era. You have to remember, they run a lot more now than they did when he was a QB. Granted there were a few who could haul azz and take off, but those guys were pure passers first and foremost (steve young for example) Vick, IMO, is kinda the modern pioneer of the rushing QB....guys tried to be like him and emulate his style only to be injured.....and Vick has never never ever had a good career stat line as a QB in % completion and many other categories due to the fact that he would rather run than to find a target or step up into the pocket. The eagles are one of the teams to be slated to be looking to draft Geno smith.....bad move, he is just Vick 2.0 and they will be right back in the sh!t house where they are now if they take him.

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Agreed.

Vick was a good enough thrower that defenses had to respect that part of his game but he was not good enough to become a traditional pocket passer once his ability to scramble fell off. Seems like McNabb did better transitioning as he matured and learned to keep his eyes down field longer.

I'm a Geno Smith skeptic myself. In fact, I don't respect the University of West Virginia football program to groom recruits into NFL prospects. (I posted this in another thread discussing draft prospects, but this article, from an Iowa Hawkeyes blog, is very interesting reading for any college football fan. Long story short, WV produces far fewer professionals than would be expected given the quality of their recruiting classes.)

The running QB injury issue boil down to one thing that has nothing to do with size or speed:

How often is the QB running the ball on a called run or a run option? He gives up his QB rule protections in those cases, with defenders gunning for them. Look at the short shelf life of RBs as a result of knee and shoulder injuries. Bad things can happen, and often do, running through garbage.

These read-option QBs have no similarity to Tarkenton, McNabb, Cunningham, et. al. Those guys did not employ called runs through the line with any frequency...they gained yards scrambling. All QB must scramble...some just do it better than others. If you want an old timey comparison to a current read-option QB, Bobby Douglas is a name that comes to mind. He ran for runnings sake.

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Agreed. The read-option isn't the reason SF beat us. They beat us because Kaep's ability to scramble was a total game-changer on plays that had broken down for them...

Vick was a good enough thrower that defenses had to respect that part of his game but he was not good enough to become a traditional pocket passer once his ability to scramble fell off. Seems like McNabb did better transitioning as he matured and learned to keep his eyes down field longer.

I'm a Geno Smith skeptic myself. In fact, I don't respect the University of West Virginia football program to groom recruits into NFL prospects. (I posted this in another thread discussing draft prospects, but this article, from an Iowa Hawkeyes blog, is very interesting reading for any college football fan. Long story short, WV produces far fewer professionals than would be expected given the quality of their recruiting classes.)

Agreed. The read-option isn't the reason SF beat us. They beat us because Kaep's ability to scramble was a total game-changer on plays that had broken down for them...

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Geno worries me as he has a fumbling problem and poor pocket awareness. I just don't see it as a fixable issue. I like Barkley of all the QBs in this class, but haven't watched any tape of the Syracuse kid.

This years QB prospects are slim pickings. Out of all of them, I like Tyler Bray from Tennessee. He ranks just below peyton manning in most of the schools overall records and did pretty good last year. At 6'6" and 215 Lbs he has the corrct height, but may need to add 10-15 Lbs. He has a solid arm and decent accuracy. He could be a draft sleeper so to speak as there is not much buzz about him. He looks good on film to me.

Solve the Kapernick issue: Hit him, and hit him hard.....wheather he has the ball or not.....make his a$$ afraid to run.

I don't care about a guy that seems "sturdy" or not, that is the reason McNabb finally decided to become a pocket passes rather than a run arounf vick type guy. He took big time shots and he didn't like it and was forced to become an actual QB. He had a much longer, more productive time being a QB rather than that run around crap.
Time and history has proved that if you run around like a fool all the time, you will get your bread toasted and be on the bench with injury. Perfect example in the recent past are RGIII and Mike Vick.

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That's exactly what the Ravens did in the SB. Every play in which Kaep was read-optioning, heck even if he was just in the pocket, they were in his face and hitting him.

This years QB prospects are slim pickings. Out of all of them, I like Tyler Bray from Tennessee. He ranks just below peyton manning in most of the schools overall records and did pretty good last year. At 6'6" and 215 Lbs he has the corrct height, but may need to add 10-15 Lbs. He has a solid arm and decent accuracy. He could be a draft sleeper so to speak as there is not much buzz about him. He looks good on film to me.

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To downplay a bit, 3 of his WR could end up drafted in the first 2 rounds. Wilson and Scott are two guys I like.