Monthly Archives: February 2011

My graphic shows clearly that there was a relatively quiet period in September

at the time that GNS said on the 14th Sep– “Canterbury could get at least two more aftershocks of magnitude 5.0 or higher, but the risk of a bigger earthquake is fading by the hour, GNS Science says.”

They also said – “Gerstenberger said the aftershock figures had been updated daily, and it had been a ‘textbook’ sequence”.

Then further in the article – “GNS spokesman John Callan said there was now only a remote chance of a magnitude 6.0 aftershock.” With the benefit of hindsight – I wonder if GNS told authorities that their mid Sept optimism had failed to pan out – and that by late January there had been four aftershocks over magnitude 5.

The frequency of shocks had gone down but the data shows the persistence of several magnitude 5 shocks post September.

I am saying that the data can be looked at this way:
[1] The Darfield earthquake aftershocks were mostly over by late September.
[2] Then by October a new event had commenced – an earthquake swarm with activity more dispersed in time – with 3 shocks of magnitude 5.1 in October – the mag 4.5 & 4.9 at Christmas – then the 5.1 in January – in the next four weeks there was only 5 shocks between 4 to 4.5 magnitude.
[3] Then the terrible surprise of Lyttelton.

Our knowledge of this new seismic zone is so short – there may yet be twists and turns on the road ahead.

The week of hot weather in Sydney early in February must have raised spirits in the BoM and other followers of the IPCC bandwagon. I would guess that this induced a hyper-excited state that lead to such a shoddy “SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 27”. Let us remember that the last six months of maximum temperature (day-time) anomalies looks pretty much cool for the vast majority of the continent.
Then along came Cyclone Yasi which coincided with the one week NSW heat wave – January 30th and February 6th.
Here is the max anomaly map for week ending 8th Feb –
note the extensive cool anomalies compared to what is left of the heat wave – I must remember to get a map that ends at 6th Feb.
And the last week available is pretty much cool too.

I was curious when this news broke – I have always regarded the post as strange – an almost irrelevant little playpen – surely it would be better for the Govt to tap advice from experts in the academies or universities on a case by case basis – rather than as in this case relying numero uno on an Astronomer. So why not abolish the post now and save the few millions. I think the timing of the resignation hardly a week after the Govt appointed Prof Tim Flannery to the Climate Change Commission – speaks volumes. Interested to hear what readers think.
Apparently today Dr Sackett might – “…let rip at Senate hearing” – wow that will terrify the Gillard Gang.

In the BoM “SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 27” – An exceptional summer heatwave in greater Sydney and the Hunter Valley – the BoM on page 10 shows the following graphics of Sydney night-time temperatures increasing since 1859.

The existence of an ever increasing urban heat island (UHI) in Sydney – and all other urban areas – is completely ignored in SCS27.

Running the linest function in Excel over the 60 years of GHCN rain 1951-2010 – the daily rainfall anomaly has increased by 0.00026mm PA which equates to 0.0156mm over the 60 year period – which in turn equates to an extra 5.69mm PA.

I seriously doubt anybody would notice a ~1% increase in their average rainfall over 60 years – but imagine the panic stories from the warmists if the climate were drying !!

How a party that is “anti-dam” – or anti a key component of our domestic water supplies – has ever got to the point of enjoying ~15% of the vote – I can not understand. But for the sake of Australia – this can be turned around – as Ted Baillieu has done.