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I will be dedicating a thread to this in the not too distant future but let's start with trendlines.

They are all utterly subjective, whether you connect higher lows to other higher lows of higher highs to other higher highs or any combination you like, they are all as valid as each other so why this so called ' rule ' of connecting higher lows to establish an uptrend.

I will give a couple of reasons why I like the standard technical analysis:

1) Because technical analysis is about interpretation of the market movements and conditions.
If everybody would look for, for example, a perfect "Double top" they would have traded maybe once in a year (and probably with a loss since it was too obvious).

With the experience you will get better and better with your interpretations and you will spot powerful patterns around the markets.

2) To be successful you just need to "trade with the money", spot a pattern that everybody is seeing and trade with it.
Try this experiments: draw some horizontal lines at the psychological levels, you will see that the price always reacts at these levels. Why?
Because everybody considers them.
Nobody sees the result of some weird indicators

Well-known member

Account of the monetary policy August meeting summary:
In the minutes from July’s ECB policy meeting, there were concerns over risk of Euro over-shooting.

The accounts stated, “Acknowledged the strengthening of the economic expansion and confirmed that the risks to the growth outlook were broadly balanced”.

Regarding the economic and monetary developments in the euro area, “Financial conditions had remained broadly favourable, despite some repricing across financial markets”.
In the euro area, the economic expansion continued to be solid and broad based, mainly driven by domestic demand.

Regarding Monetary policy stance and policy considerations, “it was generally judged paramount at this stage to avoid sending signals that could be prone to over-interpretation and might prove premature”.
Overall, financial conditions remained supportive of the economic expansion, although the repricing in some financial market segments, in particular in foreign exchange markets and the bond markets, had led to some deterioration since the previous meeting.

Regarding exchange rates, “while it was remarked that the appreciation of the euro to date could be seen in part as reflecting changes in relative fundamentals in the euro area vis-à-vis the rest of the world, concerns were expressed about the risk of the exchange rate overshooting in the future”.

Market participants shift the focus to next week’s Jackson Hole meeting.
According to Chris Turner at ING, “We believe Draghi will not be making any new policy announcements during his Jackson Hole speech next week may have come as a disappointment to EUR bulls”.

Weekly data Review:
• Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area and in EU down by 0.5% .
• Germany prelim GDP up 0.6% in the Q2 of 2017.
• GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU.
• Euro area annual inflation was 1.3% in July 2017, stable compared with June 2017.
• European Union annual inflation was 1.5% in July 2017, also stable compared to June 2017.

TECHNICAL VIEW​

EURUSD fell as low as 1.1660 in the European session and off the lows on NY session. We have previously advised that price action appears bearish. The near-term trading range remains between 1.1850 and 1.1680.

As we see the four-hour chart, we have four bearish patterns.
• Symmetrical triangle
• Descending wedge
• Lower low and lower high
• Bearish H&S pattern

The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish. We believe a breakdown below the lower end of the symmetrical triangle needed to retrace further to 1.1620/1.1610.
The 38.2% fib finds at 1.1600 (1.1118-1.1910 rally) fail to hold might drag to 1.1510 it’s 50DMA and coincides with 50.0% fib.
The medium term support finds at 1.1510 and 1.1470 levels.
We believe it has a potential to re-test to 38.2% and 50.0% levels before the September ECB meeting.
Resistances seems at 1.1800, 1.1850 and 1.1900.
The continuation of lower low and lower high pattern aiming at 1.1620/1.1600 levels.
Tactically EURUSD is overbought, a dip is a good opportunity for the medium-term perspective, aiming at 1.20/1.2040 and 1.2300 finally.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.

Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole is the key driver this week apart from politics.

Technical view​

We believe USDJPY to move in a sideways this week. The Weekly price action has tested the 200WEMA again. Recent price action printed a top at 111.00, the level to watch here is 108.60 and 108.10 rounded to 108.00.

Until the price close above 108.00, we believe the price action trying to form a base between 108.60 and 108.10 levels. On the four-hour chart, the oscillator turns bullish. In this case, 110.00 and 111.00 is an open target.

ECB’s comments and Barcelona terrorist attack were the key factors for euro’s resilience last week. In the minutes from July’s ECB policy meeting, there were concerns over risk of Euro over-shooting.

Market participants shift focus to the Yellen and Draghi’s speeches at the 2017 Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled between August 24-26.
Here are the analysts forecast on Draghi speech at Jackson Hole:

Barclays: We do not think that Draghi will provide meaningful hints on monetary policy.HSBC: Reuters, citing ECB sources, suggests he is unlikely to announce any policy change.Morgan Stanley: Media reports that he will not deliver a new policy message at Jackson Hole, taking risks of a policy surprise out of the equation.

Data Review:
• Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area and in EU down by 0.5%.
• Germany prelim GDP up 0.6% in the Q2 of 2017.
• GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU.
• Euro area annual inflation was 1.3% in July 2017, stable compared with June 2017.
• European Union annual inflation was 1.5% in July 2017, also stable compared to June 2017.
• In the minutes from July’s ECB policy meeting, there were concerns over risk of Euro over-shooting.

Upcoming data:Tue, Aug 22
German ZEW Economic SentimentWed, Aug 22
ECB President Draghi speaks at the 6th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences, in Germany.
Germany and EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI’sBarclays: August flash PMIs data should come in broadly in line with the previous month, as growth momentum across the euro area stabilizes.Fri, Aug 25
Germany Ifo Business Climate

TECHNICAL VIEW​

EURUSD closed above the descending wedge and settles above 1.1800 and 20DMA again. But keeping Jackson Hole meeting in mind the levels to watch here are 1.1850 and 1.1900.
On the hourly chart (H1) the price action gave an upside breakout through the inverse H&S pattern and a symmetrical triangle (below chart). The pattern target aiming at 1.1845 coincides with the parallel resistance on the four-hour chart seems at 1.1850.

The daily oscillator turns bullish but the RSI keep making lower low and lower high.
Last week’s price action formed a base between 1.1680 and 1.1660 and changed the direction yesterday. We believe Draghi likely to disappoint euro bulls at Jackson Hole, as a result EURO is biased to the downside risk. Our near-term view on EURUSD is unchanged.
Support moved to 1.1770, 1.1730 and 1.1680/1.1680.A move below 1.1660 needed to retest the key fib levels.
The 38.2% fib finds at 1.1600 (1.1118-1.1910 rally) fail to hold might drag to 1.1530 it’s 50DMA and coincides with 50.0% fib.

Tactically EURUSD is overbought; a dip is a good opportunity for the medium-term perspective, aiming at 1.20/1.2040 and 1.2300 finally.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

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We believe central bank divergence and political headwinds are likely to dominate
EURGBP has been moving higher trajectory for four straight months.
UK GDP and Draghi speech at Jackson Hole are the key risk events.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS​

Central Bank themes and politics are the key drivers in the recent days rather than economic data. Last week economic data was mixed.

This week speeches at Jackson Hole and next week’s second round of Brexit negotiations are the two events offering fresh risk to the FX markets and for GBP especially against EUR,JPY and USD.

Event1: Market participants shift focus to the Yellen and Draghi’s speeches at the 2017 Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled between August 24-26.

Here are the analysts forecast on Draghi speech at Jackson Hole:

Barclays: We do not think that Draghi will provide meaningful hints on monetary policy.

Morgan Stanley: Media reports that he will not deliver a new policy message at Jackson Hole, taking risks of a policy surprise out of the equation.

Event2: The second round of Brexit negotiations begins next week on August 28.

According to Adarsh Sinha at Merrill Lynch, “A speedy agreement on the ‘divorce’ bill and EU citizens’ rights would facilitate new trade deal talks, which if successful, would be bullish for GBP and potentially pave the way for UK rate hikes”.

Data review:

CPI was 2.6% in July 2017, unchanged from June 2017 on YoY basis.

PPI Input 0.0% vs. -0.3%, forecast 0.4%.

House Price Index was 4.9% vs 5.0%, forecast 4.3%.

ILO Unemployment Rate 4.4% vs. 4.5%, forecast 4.5%

Jobless Claims Change -4.2k vs. 3.5.

Employment Change 125k vs. 97k.

Retail sales 0.3% vs 0.3%, forecast 0.2%.

Upcoming data:

Thu, Aug 24

2nd estimate GDP

Barclays: This week’s GDP print should confirm that the subdued economic growth in the UK.

TECHNICAL VIEW​

The higher low and higher high pattern pushing the cross higher in a well-defined uptrend. Supports moved to 0.9100, 0.9050 and 0.8990.

The selling pressure looms below 0.9050 but strengthens only below 0.8990. A move below 0.8990 to retrace further to 0.8900/0.8890.

The daily RSI remain overbought and the oscillator remains bearish.

VIEW: The levels to watch here are 0.9230 and 0.9260.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

Market participants shift focus to the Draghi’s speech at the 2017 Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled between August 24-26.
The NAFTA negotiations began last week (August 16) between US, Canada and Mexico. They wrapped with up their first round of talks on Sunday.

TECHNICAL VIEW​

EURCAD retested the 100EMA twice on the daily chart and on the monthly chart re-tested the 200EMA twice. It has been consolidating between 1.4880 it’s 50.0% (June-July fall) and 1.4725 for five straight sessions.

A breakout above 1.4880/1.4900 opens up to 1.4960 and 1.5000 in the near term. Further extension possible if the neckline taken out, in this case, 1.5090 and 1.5200 are possible. Shoulders seem at 1.4725.

Supports moved to 1.4800, 1.4725 and 1.4600. Fails to hold the 100DEMA, further retracement expected to 1.4650 and 1.4610.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

EURAUD continues to trade higher this week, but facing resistance at the three-month and longer term descending trend line.In the 1H of 2017, EURAUD rose more than 10%.

As shown on the below weekly chart, the price action appears an inverse H&S pattern. A breakout above the 3-month descending trend line opens to the way to long term descending trend line. It is worth to watch EURAUD in the near and medium term perspective. If propel above the long term trend line opens to 1.5330 and 1.5400 initially, later 1.5640 and 1.5700 possible.

Medium term potential support finds between 1.4440 and 1.4330. At higher time frames (weekly &monthly) the oscillator remains bullish.

If we turn to the daily chart, the price pattern appears same as the weekly. In addition to that, symmetrical triangle also spotted. On Thursday session, the 3month descending trend line rejected the cross.

It has a resistance zone seems between 1.5020 and 1.5075. If propel above 1.5100 opens to 1.5200 and 1.5230 in the near term. Further extension possible if the longer term descending trend line breaches. In this case, 1.5330 is the immediate target. Near term, support finds at 1.4890, 1.4820 and 1.4730. A move below 1.4700 needed to re-test 1.4630 a parallel support.

The RSI appears bearish.

View: We are sidelines waiting for new setup either to buy the dip or buying the breakout.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

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EURAUD has been facing resistance at 200EMA on the monthly chart.
Long term descending trend line in focus.
Bullish patterns visible on the daily and weekly charts.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

EURAUD continues to trade higher this week, but facing resistance at the three-month and longer term descending trend line.In the 1H of 2017, EURAUD rose more than 10%.

As shown on the below weekly chart, the price action appears an inverse H&S pattern. A breakout above the 3-month descending trend line opens to the way to long term descending trend line. It is worth to watch EURAUD in the near and medium term perspective. If propel above the long term trend line opens to 1.5330 and 1.5400 initially, later 1.5640 and 1.5700 possible.

Medium term potential support finds between 1.4440 and 1.4330. At higher time frames (weekly &monthly) the oscillator remains bullish.

If we turn to the daily chart, the price pattern appears same as the weekly. In addition to that, symmetrical triangle also spotted. On Thursday session, the 3month descending trend line rejected the cross.

It has a resistance zone seems between 1.5020 and 1.5075. If propel above 1.5100 opens to 1.5200 and 1.5230 in the near term. Further extension possible if the longer term descending trend line breaches. In this case, 1.5330 is the immediate target. Near term, support finds at 1.4890, 1.4820 and 1.4730. A move below 1.4700 needed to re-test 1.4630 a parallel support.

The RSI appears bearish.

View: We are sidelines waiting for new setup either to buy the dip or buying the breakout.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

Lack of fresh monetary policy related comments by Draghi pushed the euro higher against USD and against crosses as well. With the same reason in Yellen’s speech, USD lost the ground on the late Friday session.

EURUSD retraced to 1.1900 before the spike to 1.1940 and visited the 100.00fe on the four-hour chart. Hereon resistances seems at a big round number 1.2000 and 1.2040. Supports moved to 1.1830, 1.1770 and 1.1660.

It has been moving higher for six straight months. Since 2008, there were two occasions it has moved higher for five straight months and 1 time recorded for six straight monthly gains.

Last week we recommended bullish trades on EURAUD, EURCAD, and EURNZD. For the time being the upside risk is higher in EUR crosses than EURUSD.

This week market participants focus on EZ CPI. This will be the key driver to EURUSD price action in the near term. We are moving towards to September ECB meeting with a beaten down DXY and the EUR at over bought levels.

EURUSD has potential resistance zone remains between 1.2000-1.2040 July 2012 low. Fails to breach this will shift the focus to 1.1850-1.1830 and 1.1770.

We are a buyer in a dip aiming at 1.2110, 1.2300 and 1.2400.

FX positioning: Scotia Bank reported the FX Sentiment report on last Friday, “EUR’s net long position was up $1.3bn w/w to $12.9bn, recovering a portion of last week’s decline.EUR gross longs are just shy of the record high from two weeks ago”. The data cover up to Tuesday, August 22.

View: In the near term we are not too bullish.

EURCHF is trading on a verge of breakout through “Descending wedge” on the four-hour chart and a ‘Symmetrical triangle” on the daily chart. It’s worth to watch the cross as it has a potential to extend the rally to 1.1800.View: We are a buyer in a dip.

EURJPY has been facing potential resistance at 200WMA for seven consecutive weeks. If we turn to the monthly chart, 50MA is the key resistance level. It has a parallel resistance zone seems between 130.60 and 130.80 above this 131.40 exists. If propel above the early August high, opens to 134/134.20 levels.
Support moves to 130.00, 129.50 and 129.00. View: We are not bullish.

In terms of technical’s nothing has changed since five-weeks. The near term and medium term price action are likely being a sideways within a tight trading range between 53.50 and 51$.

The daily RSI is sloping down and spotted with a lower top. On the hourly chart, multiple tops spotted at 52.75 above this 53 exist. As shown on the below chart resistance gradually moving down to 52.30 vs 52.75.

On the daily chart, the price action remains in a lower high pattern, expressing a bearish view on the long term perspective. A foot step above 54.60 needed to forecast an extension in the near and medium term. Alternatively, a move below 50.90 needed to re-test the 50.60, 50 and even 49.70.

We repeatedly said, “Set of resistance zones are likely to play a significant role in the near and medium term. Initial zone seems at 53.50 and 53.70 above this 54.30 and 54.60 exists”.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

The Near term trading range remains between 88.20 and 85.40. We are watching for 85 and 84.50 levels. Fails to breach the supply zone seems between 87.60-88.20 retrace initially to 86.

In the medium term perspective, the price action printed a top at 89.45 (50.0% 105.40-73.30 fall). Trading range remains between 90.00 and 83.70.

Data to watch:
Today on Asia trade, Aussie buildings approval

USDJPY TECHNICAL VIEW​

• USDJPY retraced and rebound.
• On a verge of a trend line breakout.
• Probably made a double bottom.

We have previously advised, “Until the price close above 108.00, we believe the price action trying to form a base between 108.60 and 108.10 levels”. The price action made a low at 108.25 and changes the direction again.

Our near term view remains unchanged. Buying expected between 108.60 and 108.00. We are watching at 110.00 and 111.00. We repeatedly advise this trade and the price action reacted in line.

Yesterday's sell-off finally turn around and rebound to 20DMA, 109.90. It has a near term resistance seems between 109.90 and 110.00 above this opens to 111.00.

Near term potential support zone remains between 108.10 and 107.50. A move below 107.50 needed to retrace further to 106.50 (61.8% 98.93-118.65 rally) and 105.50. Intraday supports moved to 109.20 and 108.60.

Data to watch:Wed, Jul 30
August ADP employment report:Nomura: We expect ADP to report an increase of 200k in private payrolls for August.
2nd estimate Q2 GDP:Nomura: In the second estimate of Q2 GDP, we expect the BEA to raise its estimate by 0.3pp from 2.9% q-o-q saar.US nonfarm payroll is the central theme this week.Barclays: August non-farm payrolls to rise 200k and the unemployment rate to decline to 4.2%.Nomura: We expect another strong employment report next Friday with a forecasted 205k increase in nonfarm payroll employment, which would mark the third consecutive month of +200k growth.

NZDJPY fell as low as 1.30%, 78.27 but rebound strongly and closed with 0.45% gains. It was a wild journey to JPY crosses especially to AUDJPY and NZDJPY.

It has erased the descending trend line (below chart) resistances seem at 79.80, 80.20 and 80.60. The daily RSI making a higher low and break out visible on the daily chart. The daily oscillator remains bullish.

Well-known member

Strong US data shifts the FX near term trends in major and USD pairs as well. USD buying witness across the board on Wednesday session.

Market participants focus on August NFP data due on Friday.

Barclays: August non-farm payrolls to rise 200k and the unemployment rate to decline to 4.2%.

Nomura: we expect another strong employment report next Friday with a forecasted 205k increase in nonfarm payroll employment, which would mark the third consecutive month of +200k growth.

FX insights: ​

USDCHF and USDJPY gave bullish breakouts on the hourly and four-hour chart. We repeatedly advise USDJPY buying between 108.60 and 108.10.

USDCHF and USDCAD gave a breakout through the inverse H&S pattern (H1) in yesterday’s London session.

USDCAD erased the twelve-week descending trend line.

USDMXN printed the first higher low on the daily chart.

USDTRY sits above interesting trend lines.

USDZAR trading near parallel support levels.

After the North Korea missile saga in early Monday Asia session, EURUSD printed a near term top at 1.2070 in Europe session and changed the direction. At lower time frames it has given a bearish H&S pattern. We advised a sell trade on our Tuesday’s article.

GBPUSD rejected thrice at 50DMA and trading between interesting trend lines on the four-hour chart. A foot print above 1.2980 opens to 1.3030 and 1.3080. Safe buying available only above 1.3030. The daily oscillator remains bullish. Earlier we have advised a bullish trade at 1.2800 with a target at 1.2940/1.2960. The cable made a high at 1.2978.

GBPAUD and GBPCAD currently trading on a verge of a breakout through the descending trend line on the daily chart. GBPAUD already gave a range breakout of 190 pips.

GBPNZD spotted with an inverse H&S pattern on the H4 chart. The pattern target aiming at 1.8040, 1.8100 and 1.8140, On the daily chart a clear breakout visible through a symmetrical triangle. A strong close above 1.8000 major trend reversal is highly likely. In this case 1.8150 and 1.8350 possible.

The Aussie dollar printed a lower top on the daily chart and closed below 20DMA. A move below 0.7830-0.7800 to confirm the retracement to 0.7750/0.7740. Any rally needs to sell until close above 0.8000.

The Kiwi dollar consolidating with a bearish theme at 50.0% fib (0.6817-0.7557 rally). Sell on the rally favors the trend.

CHFJPY again rejected at the parallel resistance and 50DMA. On the daily chart, the price action appears a bearish H&S pattern. Until close above 115.50 sell the rally favors the trend. Near term, support finds at 112.50 and 112.30. A move below this opens to 110 and 108.50 levels.

In the commodity space, Brent oil fell below the eleven-week ascending trend line. WTI settles below all the moving average on the daily chart but Brent remains above 50&100 DMA@50.0.

Natural gas has been trading in a large symmetrical triangle spotted on the daily chart. A near term trend reversal expected if settle above 3.1120 aims at 3.2000 and 3.3500.