Bush Maintaining Narrow Lead in National Poll

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush continues to hold a narrow lead over the large Republican field of presidential candidates, but U.S. Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio all gained support in the past three months, according to a new national survey conducted by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute slightly before Bush’s formal announcement.

Here are the results to the same question posed to self-identified Republicans in March and then in June in the national online poll.

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016 … here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Republican nomination?

March

June

GOP Possibilities

15%

16%

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

8%

13%

U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

7%

13%

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas

7%

10%

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida

8%

7%

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker

7%

7%

Dr. Ben Carson

7%

6%

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

7%

5%

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Bush also led when likely Republican primary voters were asked to name their second choice. Where the former Florida governor really stands out is in the question asking people which candidate they expect will be the nominee, with 29 percent of Republican voters expecting Bush.

Regardless of whom you personally support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?

March

June

GOP Possibilities

27%

29%

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

8%

8%

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida

2%

8%

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas

10%

7%

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker

7%

7%

U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

6%

6%

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Bush Maintains His Lead Among Republicans

“Bush is maintaining his position but seems to be losing some enthusiasm among Republicans,” said Frank Orlando, instructor of political science at Saint Leo University. “His strongly favorable/strongly unfavorable rating among Republicans is as low as it’s been since last June. Despite that, his head-to-head with Hillary Clinton result [shown below] was his best showing ever in our national poll,” stated Orlando.

Within the Democratic arena, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s challengers for the Democratic nomination barely registered in the sample of 265 likely Democratic primary voters, which was contacted before Clinton’s formal announcement Saturday, June 13. Clinton was named the first choice candidate by 52 percent of Democrats. Announced challengers—U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee, and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley—took less than 10 percent combined. Most Democrats expected Clinton will be the party’s nominee, indicated by 57 percent of Democrats.

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016 … here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Democratic nomination. If the Democratic primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination?

March

June

Democratic Possibilities

50%

52%

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

11%

19%

Vice President Joe Biden

8%

5%

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

3%

5%

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont

6%

4%

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

3%

2%

U.S. Senator Corey Booker of New Jersey

1%

2%

Former U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia

——

2%

Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee

2%

1%

U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York

1%

<1%

U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

2%

<1%

Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley

Clinton is Still the Democratic Frontrunner Despite Erosion of Favorability

“Clinton’s favorability continues to erode but she’s still the overwhelming favorite among Democrats,” continued Saint Leo’s Orlando. “Our national survey results put her as low as she’s been among the general public. This isn’t surprising, as maintaining the favorability she enjoyed last summer long-term was untenable. The odds are that as the campaign ramps up, her standing will continue to slip. However, at this point, none of the other potential Democratic candidates we polled have enough visibility to make a mark,” he said.

In the most recent polling, with 790 likely voters responding, Clinton continued to defeat all Republican challengers in hypothetical general election matchups—but her support has fallen under 50 percent:

47%

Hillary Clinton

Jeb Bush

43%

49%

Hillary Clinton

Rand Paul

42%

48%

Hillary Clinton

Chris Christie

38%

47%

Hillary Clinton

Marco Rubio

40%

47%

Hillary Clinton

Scott Walker

38%

About the Saint Leo University Polling Institute/Methodology

This Saint Leo University poll of 1,022 adults nationwide was conducted between May 25 and May 31, 2015. The margin of error on political questions (of likely voters only) is approximately 3 percent +/- with a 95 percent confidence level. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive—usually $1 dollar deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account—for their participation.

Full Survey Results

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute has posted full results in table form here.

About Saint Leo University

Saint Leo University is a regionally accredited, liberal-arts-based institution known for an inclusive Catholic heritage, enduring values, and capacity for innovation. The school was chartered in 1889 by Catholic Benedictine monks in rural Pasco County, FL, making Saint Leo the first Catholic college in the state. Saint Leo provides access to education to people of all faiths, emphasizing the Benedictine philosophy of balanced growth of mind, body, and spirit.

The university welcomes learners from all generations and backgrounds, from civilian occupations and the armed forces, and from across the country and more than 60 nations around the world. Saint Leo’s 16,000 undergraduate and graduate students may elect to study at the beautiful University Campus in Florida, at more than 40 teaching locations in seven states, or online from other locations. The university’s degree programs range from the associate to the doctorate. Throughout these rich offerings, Saint Leo develops principled leaders for a challenging world.

Saint Leo University boasts nearly 80,000 alumni in all 50 states, Washington, DC, five U.S. territories, and 72 countries.