Week 16 Recap:
How do you win your Pick of the Month and finish with a losing week? I suck.

I have a few things to rant about this week:

Dolphins +9.5 at Patriots: No complaints here, really. I nearly had a nervous breakdown when the Patriots went up 27-17 after trailing by 17 at halftime. All I can say is, thank God that Matt Moore threw that backdoor touchdown pass in the final minutes. I may have done something drastic if Miami failed to cover, like jump out my window, drown myself or stuff kielbasa up my backside.

Cardinals +4.5 at Bengals: John Skelton had the game-tying touchdown to an open Early Doucet. But Doucet tripped over his own two feet and fell down. Two units gone, just like that. I guarantee that if I bet on Cincinnati, Skelton would have completed that pass. I know I sound like a looney tune right now, but remember what happened in Week 15. The Bengals were up 14, when Kellen Clemens backdoored me with seconds remaining. So, Clemens can get the touchdown when throwing the ball into double coverage, but Skelton can't to a guy wide open? Come on, man.

Chiefs -3 vs. Raiders: I only lost one unit here, but that wouldn't have happened if Kansas City's potential game-winning field goal wasn't blocked as regulation expired. Special teams have absolutely killed me this year.

Seahawks +1 vs. 49ers: This spread was +2 or +2.5 early in the week. It closed at +2.5 or +3. I got it at +1, and of course, the Niners won by two. I stopped locking my picks in like I did earlier in the year because it was bad luck, but it came back to bite me in the a** here. At least this was only two units.

Bears +13 at Packers: Greg Cox sent me the following e-mail:

I can't wait to hear how pissed off you are that Lovie Smith called for a field goal down 17 because apparently he thought he was going to a) get an onside kick b) score a TD c) get another onside kick then d) score another TD in 1:17. Yes Lovie, don't try to get a touchdown when you're at like the freaking 10-yard line because you might actually cover the points and win a few people some coin who bet on your team.

That was just half the story. On the other sideline, Mike McCarthy challenged a Dane Sanzenbacher 20-yard reception up 17 with two minutes remaining. It's like both coaches bet heavily on Packers -13. I wish I would have known this ahead of time.

Anyway, I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I thought the clip of Steve Young saying that Rex Grossman would be thought of as a "top-10 quarterback" by season's end was pretty hilarious. Not that I haven't said my fair share of dumb stuff (hello, Jimmy Clausen), but how can anyone believe that Grossman can be an elite quarterback? He's been solid at times this year, but is just way too careless with the football. He tossed four interceptions in a meeting against the Eagles back in October, resulting in his temporary benching.

The Eagles have tough cornerbacks, so Grossman could easily duplicate that feat if he's not smart with the football. With Nnamdi Asomugha finally playing well (because he's actually being utilized correctly), Grossman has his work cut out for him.

Washington could have some success running the ball, however. The Eagles just shut down Sammy Morris, but that's because they were able to focus on stopping the run when Tony Romo went out with his hand injury. Philadelphia's ground defense is still suspect, so Evan Royster could easily break the century plateau if Roy Helu is out again.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Speaking of hampered running backs, LeSean McCoy is expected to play, according to Andy Reid. McCoy earlier said that he wouldn't be able to go, but his head coach apparently has a different opinion.

The Redskins are pretty mediocre in terms of containing the rush. McCoy gained 126 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries at Washington in Week 6, so expect him to go off, assuming Reid remembers to call plays for him.

McCoy, of course, will also be utilized as a pass-catcher out of the backfield to help QB Dog Killer, who has his full complement of receivers at his disposal. His offensive line is also better than ever. That should help neutralize Washington's pass rush, which is the best aspect of its defense.

RECAP: The Eagles have been eliminated from the playoffs, but this game isn't meaningless for them. They still have a shot to get back to .500. I've looked back over the past decade, and 7-8 teams usually cover in Week 17 because they don't want to finish the season with a losing record.

Having said that, this spread is pretty high, so I'm only going to place one unit on the host.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
The Eagles could be deflated after missing out on the playoffs.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Lots of late money coming in on the Eagles.

Vegas Recap: The sportsbooks had a pretty decent week. Six of the 11 highly bet teams (Colts, Bills, Jaguars, Dolphins, Browns and Lions) covered the spread. Some teasers were also broken up when Indianapolis slew Houston. The five teams that lost money for Vegas, by the way, were the Giants, Panthers, Steelers, Eagles and Packers.

It's been a strange year for the books. They usually give a few weeks away and then rape the public later in the year. That hasn't really happened, so it makes me wonder if things will go back to normal or not next season.

Anyway, I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There's no spread on this game as of Tuesday afternoon because there was some speculation that the 49ers would be able to rest their starters if the Saints lost Monday night. Well, New Orleans won, so there should be a line. San Francisco still has a first-round bye to secure. And besides, I think Jim Harbaugh would want to host a potential matchup against the Saints in Round 2.

Alex Smith, Frank Gore and company will all be in the lineup. Smith won't have to throw much because the Rams are dead last versus the run. The 49ers racked up 132 rushing yards against them in a Week 13 shutout.

St. Louis is also very weak versus the pass. As you may have heard by now, the team has a whopping 10 cornerbacks on injured reserve. Smith consequently was a near-perfect 17-of-23 for 274 yards and two touchdowns against them in that aforementioned Week 13 tilt.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Steve Spagnuolo told the media that Sam Bradford remains "day to day," but there's no point in playing him in a meaningless contest like this one. It's fully expected that Kellen Clemens or Tom Brandstater will start for the Rams.

A.J. Feeley got the nod when these teams clashed in early December, and it wasn't pretty. Feeley went 12-of-22 for 156 yards, an interception and a lost fumble. He led the Rams to no points. He was constantly under pressure by San Francisco's fierce front seven. Clemens/Brandstater will be harassed just the same.

Give Steven Jackson a ton of credit because he's still running hard despite how woeful his team is. Jackson, unfortunately, won't be able to do much here, given that the 49ers have the NFL's top-ranked ground defense. They limited Jackson to just 19 yards on 10 carries in Week 13.

RECAP: The 49ers want a bye and a home playoff game against the Saints in Round 2, so they're going to try hard. I imagine they'll be favored by around 10 points, but they should be able to cover that pretty easily.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 85% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

49ers are 13-6 ATS against divisional opponents in the past 19 instances.

1. I promised myself that I wouldn't bash ESPN because they brought back NFL Primetime, but I can't help myself. They really piss me off sometimes.

If you're unaware, ESPN has this feature on Friday evening's SportsCenter where they delve into each game. Matthew Berry tackles the fantasy aspect, giving us a key start or sit (thanks for telling us to start Green Bay's defense against Chicago last week, Berry). Mark Schlereth then talks about a key matchup. After that, Lomas Brown gives us his pick.

I can see the Berry and Schlereth part, but What the hell qualifies Brown to give us selections? Did he make a ton of Vegas, or something? I wouldn't think so, based on the fact that he picked the Eagles to beat the Giants in their first meeting earlier in the year because, "To me, the Eagles right now are the Dream Team."

ESPN does everything half-a**ed. I'd love it if they brought in a professional handicapper like Teddy Covers or Fezzik to handicap these games. Hell, digging up Jimmy the Greek's corpse would be better than having us listen to a half-asleep Lomas give us Green Bay over Kansas City straight up because the "Packers are a good team."

2. Speaking of ESPN, Jeff J. sent over the following e-mail before the season:

I sent a rant to ESPN to ask why they only detail RB/WR, WR/TE, and FLEX as possible flex roster options (with no explanation of what "flex" means... guessing it could potentially be QB/RB/WR/TE/K/DEF they way they fail to outline or explain it. Though they have all the other options in their glossary.

Anyway, here’s the response I got back from the company that's supposed to be "the worldwide sports leader":

Dear Jeff,

Thank you for contacting us.

I apologize for the confusion under the flex position you will be able to place Running backs, Wide receivers and Tied ends.

For live assistance with any other issue, please call Customer Care at 1-888-549-3776 (ESPN) between 8:00 a.m. and 1:00 a.m. EST.

Regards,
Erick
ESPN.com Customer Care

Thanks, Erick! What a great ESPN.com Customer Care employee - not only did you invent a new position (tied ends), you didn't even answer Jeff's question, opting to state an irrelevant fact instead.

What if this applied elsewhere? Imagine if you take your car to the mechanic. What if you got this call from him hours later?

I apologize for the confusion your car has a steering wheel and you can turn it to make your car move that direction.

Of course, this is the same network that ruined its best show (NFL Primetime) and hires illiterate analysts like Emmitt Smith, so I guess we shouldn't be surprised.

3. I'm pissed off at FOX as well. Remember years ago when Rebecca Grant used to do those meaningless Verizon updates before kickoff? If you haven't been reading this site for a couple of years, I used to analyze these segments and express my disdain whenever Rebecca Grant didn't show off her awesome cleavage.

Well, FOX has been destroying this segment. In 2009, it was Rebecca Grant:

In 2010, it was a declining Jill Arrington:

Now, it's some chubby, bald dude (Jay Glazer) who is in Subway commercials for some reason:

How do you from a super-hot Rebecca to a mediocre Jill to a beastly Jay? Shouldn't the point of this be to get more attractive people on there each year? At this rate, I can only guess whom FOX will have doing the Verizon updates in 2012:

The Real John's first girlfriend! My apologies if you just puked all over your monitor, by the way.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: When the Packers scored quickly on that opening nine-play drive on Christmas, I thought the Bears wouldn't have a chance in hell. Josh McCown with a seven-point deficit? How could Chicago possibly overcome that?

McCown wasn't bad. Most of his throws were on the money. In fact, the Bears were a bit too conservative with him because he proved himself capable enough to attack a struggling Green Bay secondary.

Minnesota's defensive backfield has similar issues, thanks to injuries/suspensions. McCown could have another decent game, provided the Bears can establish Kahlil Bell again. Bell is a really tough runner who gets tons of yardage after contact. The Vikings have surrendered at least 137 rushing yards to three of their four previous opponents, so Bell could have another solid outing.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Disaster struck in the third quarter last week when Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder both suffered injuries on back-to-back plays. Peterson's ACL and MCL tears could land him on the PUP next year, while Ponder's concussion was pretty mild. He's expected to start.

I'm pretty sure Viking fans would prefer if it were the other way around. Toby Gerhart is a solid substitute, but there's no replacing Peterson. Ponder, meanwhile, has proven himself to be the inferior quarterback on the roster. He began his professional career well, but has regressed ever since. Joe Webb, meanwhile, has been much more impressive in two relief appearances.

The Bears have to be thrilled that they won't have to stop Webb and his great scrambling ability. Instead, they can focus on containing the struggling Ponder, who won't have a strong running game by his side because Chicago has been flat-out dominant versus the rush over the past two months.

RECAP: The Bears are another team hoping to climb to .500. However, they could be flat after that emotional defeat at Lambeau. I'm picking the visitor, but I'm not planning on making any bets.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
The Bears are coming off an emotional loss at Green Bay.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 51% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 17 meetings.

Bears are 15-9 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Lovie Smith is 5-0 ATS in his second-consecutive road game as an underdog.

4. I forgot to talk about the monkey riding the dog during that halftime show two weeks ago. I was reminded of it when forum members Nasmatic and CKane138 had the following exchange:

Nasmatic: I'm watching on mute, but there is a monkey riding a dog on CBS...

CKane138: Are you sure it's not just Shannon Sharpe trying to speak?

For you Game of Thrones fans, did any of you think of Tyrion Lannister riding Crunch when you saw that? I did. And I can't wait until April when Season 2 begins on HBO.

5. I've been posting some of Migelini's comments from GameCenter. If you're new to this site, Migelini is one of the dumbest people alive. He posted something last week that was really over the top, even for him (thanks to Jay B):

I don't know where to begin:

1. "Sid" is Sidney Rice. He's been out for the year. How exactly will he be "grate?"

2. "Taptua" is Lofa Tatupu. Why does Migelini think that Tatupu is still on the roster? And what exactly will he tackle? "The fast er?" Does he mean the fast emergency room? How does that make sense?

3. Migelini thought his team was going to win, so I wonder if he got screwed with the Seahawks spread like I did. If so, he will be "owe eng" money to his bookie. What all you theinks?

6. I'm so glad that Facebook friend Jon Z. introduced me to Emmitt Smith's verified Twitter account (@emmittsmith22). His tweets are just as grammatically inept as his ESPN analysis. Here are some of them:

2. "Good luck Trent Richardson tomorrow. Bring the trophy home to the cola."

I wonder if Emmitt's a Coke or a Pepsi man.

3. "It must b snowing n Indy! They just scored a TD."

Because hell freezes over more frequently than snowfall occurs in Indy.

RESTED STARTERS: I'm not going to delve into this matchup because it's possible that both teams could be resting their starters. The Packers have already hinted about doing this. Aaron Rodgers may play a drive or a quarter, but there's no way that he'll be on the field for most of this game.

The Lions, meanwhile, could be a bit more aggressive. Think about it this way - if they hold on to the No. 5 seed, they play the Cowboys-Giants winner next week. If they lose and Atlanta wins, they'll have the sixth seed, which means they have to travel to New Orleans in Round 1. Would you rather play the NFC East champ or Drew Brees?

Having said that, Matthew Stafford could be on the field for only a quarter or a half to prevent injury. It's impossible to predict something like this because Jim Schwartz has never been in this position before.

RECAP: I think you'd have to be insane to bet on this game. I'd take the Lions with a gun to my head, but I'd rather gamble on other contests this week.

1. As you may know, I'm promoting my Boycott the Bowls (#BoycottTheBowls) initiative in an attempt to put an end to stupid bowl games so the corrupt NCAA institutes a much-needed playoff system. If no one watches these meaningless exhibitions, then no companies will sponsor them. And if there are no sponsors, these bowls will cease to exist.

I'm glad to have some supporters. For example, e-mailer Matt C. sent this over:

Love the Boycott the Bowls article even though it's a few years old. This is my first year boycotting, but I encouraged all my friends to boycott also.

An 8 or 16 team college football playoff would be the most popular sporting event of the year. Imagine the fanfare of post Thanksgiving to Christmas extravaganza of great football.

When there's a college football playoff 40 years from now, I think people are going to look back and ask, "What the f*** were those idiots thinking with that bowl system? It made no sense. Why was there no playoff?"

2. JackO from Bill Simmons' podcast is another #BoycottTheBowls supporter. He tweeted the following:

We can't possibly have an FBS playoff because of the sanctity of the bowls - like tonights Poinsettia Bowl which has 20 people in attendance

JackO is right. No one is at these stupid games. My cable box was set to ESPN when I turned my TV on recently, so I caught five seconds of the Hawaii bowl. I looked at the stands, and there were 20 empty seats for everyone filled one.

What the hell is the point of playing these games if no one watches them? I almost want to take screen shots of these empty stands, e-mail them to the sponsor of that specific contest, and write, "Look at what your advertising money is doing for you morons."

3. These dumb bowl games are so meaningless that even the players don't care. There was some sort of Independence Bowl on Monday that drew 16 comments in an in-game thread on my forum that member Leelee created. By comparison, the Falcons-Saints thread had 119 posts before kickoff.

I didn't watch any of the Independence Bowl crap. I don't even know which two teams were playing. I do know that North Carolina was one of the squads because I read a tweet from CBS NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang:

An embarrassing effort from North Carolina's pro prospects. I can't recall a more physically talented, consistently disappointing group.

There was no effort because they were playing in a meaningless scrimmage. NFL general managers shouldn't even look at what happens in bowl games because they shouldn't exist.

#BoycottTheBowls.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Is it more impressive to break the rookie passing yards record or the all-time single-season passing yards mark? I'd say the latter, but Cam Newton's feat is pretty remarkable. Mostly everyone, including myself, thought he'd have to take some time to develop because Auburn runs a looney tune offense. But Newton has been great, aside from a four-game stretch following the bye in which he turned the ball over too much. It's worth noting that he hasn't had any giveaways in the past two weeks.

Newton has a tough challenge coming up. He's never played in front of the Saints' Superdome crowd before. It's so difficult to win there when the Saints are good. Newton will have to adjust for all the noise and the mayhem.

Unlike last week, Newton won't have the luxury of throwing the ball just 17 times. He won't have the support of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart because New Orleans has been really stout versus the rush since its Week 11 bye.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It's pretty incredible that Brees beat Marino's record in just 15 games. I know it's easier to throw now, but Brees has a chance to eclipse Marino by 300 or so yards.

Brees won't have any issues against Carolina's woeful defense. The Panthers are 31st against the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks to maintain an 8.2 YPA. A mediocre pass rush is partly to blame. Brees once again won't have any pressure in his face.

The Saints ran the ball extremely well Monday night despite not having Mark Ingram. Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory will pick up where they left off, as Carolina is just 26th versus the rush.

RECAP: I'd pick the Saints under normal circumstances, but there's a chance that Sean Payton could pull his starters in the second half. I know he'll be playing for a bye, but it's very probable that the 49ers will jump out to a big lead against the Rams. Something similar occurred last year; New Orleans initially had a chance to win the division, but Atlanta was blowing out Carolina, which prompted Payton to yank Brees and company.

If Brees and the other starters leave the game in the third quarter, a backdoor cover (and perhaps a victory) will open up for Newton.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans are locked into the No. 3 seed, so does that mean they're going to rest their starters? Don't count on it.

Gary Kubiak has to get this offense going. T.J. Yates was awful the past two weeks, throwing nothing but checkdowns and other short passes. He didn't have good protection this past Thursday either, as Robert Mathis continuously beat right tackle Eric Winston.

There's some good news for Yates here. First of all, it sounds like Andre Johnson will be able to play, which will force the opposition to focus a bit less on Arian Foster. And second, the Titans don't have much of a pass rush (six sacks in the past six weeks), so Yates will have time in the pocket. Blaine Gabbert looked functional at Tennessee last week, so why can't Yates?

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Heading into this season, who would have thought that Tennessee's top skill-position player at this point of the season wouldn't be Chris Johnson or Kenny Britt?

Tight end Jared Cook has been amazing the past two weeks. He's always had immense upside because of his great athleticism, so it's nice to see that he's finally putting it all together. He's making life much easier for Matt Hasselbeck, who has missed a big-play threat ever since Britt was lost back in Week 3.

Of course, CJ20 was supposed to be that guy, but he has sucked all year. The Texans have struggled against the run the past two weeks, but Wade Phillips will be back from his gall bladder surgery. I'm sure he'll help shore up the ground defense now that he has returned; prior to Week 15, the Texans hadn't surrendered 100-plus rushing yards to any team since Week 6.

Assuming CJ20 does nothing again, the Texans should be able to limit Tennessee's passing attack despite the emergence of Cook.

RECAP: Teams that are favored and need to win in Week 17 often choke. It's like legendary handicapper Dave Cokin once said: "If a team needs to win, they're probably not that good in the first place."

The Titans suck. They barely beat Jacksonville and Tampa Bay in the past month. They haven't covered the spread since Week 13 when they beat the Bills. Now they're favored on the road against a superior team looking to jump start its offense after two ugly losses? I'll take Houston.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Titans are favored and need to win. Choke alert!

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 54% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.

Texans are 32-16 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (6-4 ATS as favorites).

If you've been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. I've been posting e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a "lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP)."

Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money:

I actually forgot to send out the envelope for a few days, so I only mailed it about a week ago. Chris Bridley, Richard Held and Loon Bruce weren't pleased, as they constantly bombarded me with e-mails like this:

Dear Online Customer; Matthew Millen Kim,

Your mail was received in this bank but we have not been able to confirm your payment receipt yet, you are hereby advised to send to this bank; a scan copy of your payment slip/receipt via email. Failure to do this will render your prize forfeited within 48 hours.

Since I sent cash, I couldn't exactly give them a scanned copy of my slip/receipt. Instead...

Dr. Chris Bridley,

I sent the envelope days ago. I do not have a copy of the money I sent you, but I can scan and show you the envelope as proof!

P.S. Do you think some of my prize winnings can come in forms of kielbasa?

I also needed an excuse for Richard Held and Loon Bruce. Here's what I came up with:

I am sorry for the delay. I had a week-long getaway where I gathered with other 100-percent USDA Men, such as myself, and well, I don't need to tell you what happened during our retreat.

I mailed out the payment late, but it's on its way!

I hope my Millen money gets there before they tell me I'm no longer ineligible for that 750,000.00 GBP.

As for last week's new spam mail, here's what it was as a reminder:

Dear Coach,

My name is Peter Lee, We are looking for a qualified Basketball Coach/instructor that will handle our basketball Club,this is a 24months Head Coach contract with the club.

This Head coaching contract with the Club is scheduled to start in January 2012.

We are very interested in the experience of a basketball coach who can satisfactorily create/implement an effective offensive and defensive system and instill essential teamwork qualities among our players to guarantee success.

Contract Duration: 24months liable for upward extension depending on commitments and performance to the Club.

Salary & Benefits: US$29,000 Monthly can be paid to any bank of your choice on every 25th of the Month. Free Accommodation and Car, Flight Coverage, Medical & Dental Insurance, Leave rotational 3 Months On and 4 Weeks off..

If you are interested and capable of taking this position. Kindly forward your photograph and your C.V/RESUME for review and urgent consideration.

Thanks
Mr Peter Lee

This is almost too easy.

Here's my response:

Peter Lee,

I am very interested in handling your basketball club. I am a well-qualified coach and have lots of experience.

One question: How old are the players on your team, and do you have ball boys? I work very well with ball boys.

I have attached my picture and resume.

Thank you,

Coach Bernie Fine

Peter Lee got back to me with three long e-mails containing a seven-page PDF for me to sign. I'll have to think of something creative here for next week.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Dan Orlovsky has really improved the Colts. It sounds crazy to say that, but he's a professional quarterback. He doesn't show up drunk to games like Kerry Collins, and he doesn't turn the ball over on every other drive like Curtis Painter.

The Colts should be able to move the chains against the Jaguars, who have completely collapsed defensively because of all of their injuries. The secondary is in shambles, and there is no pass rush (four sacks in the past four games).

If there's one area where Jacksonville still is somewhat functional, it's against the rush. The Colts don't run the ball all that well anyway, so they'll be limited at times, as you might imagine.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars, conversely, can get it done on the ground. I mentioned last week that I have a new-found respect for Maurice Jones-Drew. Despite the fact that his team is absolutely dreadful, Jones-Drew continues to bring 110 percent every game.

The Colts aren't terrible versus the run, but Arian Foster exposed some holes last week. Jones-Drew should be able to find those running lanes. He was able to do that when these teams met in Week 10, rushing for 114 yards on 25 attempts.

It'll be important for Jones-Drew to have a similar-type performance to keep the Colts honest. Blaine Gabbert is too scared to play in the NFL, soiling his pants at the first hint of a pass rush. If Indianapolis establishes the lead and Jones-Drew can't run as much, Jacksonville will have major problems scoring despite the ineptness of the Colt secondary.

RECAP: The Jaguars should not be favored by four points over the Colts, who have actually covered four straight games. Indianapolis is the right side, but I don't want to lay any money on them because owner Jim Irsay may ask his coaching staff and players to take it easy here in an attempt to secure the No. 1 overall pick. Irsay would be a fool not to do this.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 55% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 15 of the last 19 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 13-6).

Video of the Week: OK, this isn't a video, but it's still something fun to do online. Go to http://maps.google.com/ and click on "Get Directions." Type in Los Angeles, CA to Hawaii Kai, Honolulu, HI. The results are pretty hilarious.

For those who are too lazy to do this:

Flying from LAX to Hawaii is too simple. You must drive all the way up to Seattle, kayak across the Pacific ocean and then go straight, whatever the hell that means. Have fun getting eaten by sharks, by the way.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There have been rumblings recently that Mark Sanchez has lost the confidence of the coaching staff. Rex Ryan denied that, but what else was he going to say? Sanchez has been brutal recently; he could have easily been guilty of five interceptions in a loss to the Giants this past Saturday.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is to blame as well. There's no way in hell Sanchez should ever attempt 59 passes, especially against a weak Giant rush defense. The Dolphins have surrendered 100-plus rushing yards in their previous two games, so Schottenheimer needs to stop being stupid and make sure that Shonn Greene gets as many carries as possible.

If Schottenheimer's moronic play-calling continues, the Jets won't have a shot. The Dolphins aren't particularly strong versus aerial attacks, but they have accumulated 11 sacks in the past three weeks. Tom Brady didn't even have a chance in the first half of Saturday's contest, so Sanchez will be under constant pressure.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Speaking of pressure, Matt Moore will have to deal with his fair share in this contest because Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long is out.

Moore will have to rely on throwing short passes and handing the ball off to Reggie Bush. Bush has been amazing this year, and he'll once again have a solid outing because the Jets have yielded at least 100 rushing yards to three of their previous four opponents.

Moore, meanwhile, will have to stay away from Darrelle Revis. He was stupid enough to challenge the league's top cornerback in the previous meeting, and Revis took a pass back for a touchdown as a result.

RECAP: Unlike the Titans, the Jets aren't favored in their must-win game. In fact, everyone's counting them out, so I like their chances of pulling the small upset. Miami might be the superior team in the public's eye, but it will have issues moving the chains without its stud left tackle.

Matt Millen: I have the perfect solution for you, Dennis. Go to the grocery store and buy a banana. And here's what I mean by that. You need to get into your car, pull out of your driveway, make your way down to the store, choose a banana, and pay for it at the cash register. After that, come home, unpeel the banana, and stick it into your backside. Some people like to do this without peeling the banana first, but let me tell you, Dennis, I've gotten rid of countless hemorrhoid issues going unpeeled.

Rich Eisen: And I did not need to know that either. Marshall Faulk, can you save us from this madness? It's your turn.

Marshall Faulk: I already picked Warrick Dunn in this round. Hey Rich, did you know that you can get Season 3 of Fringe on Amazon.com for only $29.99?

Rich Eisen: I don't... who cares? And you did not pick Warrick Dunn. You went out of order.

Rich Eisen: The bop! That means that Steve Mariucci has automatically won the league. Thanks for playing everyone. See you next draft!

Dennis Green: I f***ing hate you, Rich!!!!!!!!!!!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Bill Belichick is a genius. I know I'm not breaking any news by saying that, but what he did last week was truly remarkable. Tom Brady didn't have any time to throw in the first half against the Dolphins because of injuries to Matt Light and Logan Mankins. Belichick made the prior adjustments during intermission, and Brady went on to have one of the best second-half performances of his career.

Luckily for Belichick, he won't have to devote too much time to making protection adjustments in this contests because the Bills don't have any sort of pass rush. Aside from the Buccaneers, Buffalo has the least amount of sacks in the NFL (24).

The Bills consequently are 23rd versus the pass (7.6 YPA). They're even worse versus the rush (28th; 4.9 YPC). It's safe to say that New England won't have any issues moving the chains Sunday afternoon.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Remember when Ryan Fitzpatrick was a fantasy stud worthy of the huge contract he received two months ago? Good times. Fitzpatrick, who threw for 369 yards and two touchdowns versus New England in Week 3, has been abysmal since signing his big deal. He's turning the ball over too much, and hasn't maintained a YPA greater than 7.3 since Week 8.

Battling New England's abysmal secondary could be what the doctor ordered, but keep in mind that Fitzpatrick won't have his left tackle, and his limited arm will be a huge liability in cold and windy Foxborough. There's a reason why he has declined as the seasons have progressed the past two years.

The one silver lining in Buffalo's collapse has been the emergence of C.J. Spiller. He just gashed the Broncos for 111 yards on 16 carries. The Patriots have surrendered four consecutive 100-yard rushing performances to the opposition, so he could be trouble.

RECAP: The Patriots are one of my top two favorite plays this week. I know they struggle immensely as big home favorites, but this could be an exception. Belichick and Brady were really frustrated by how poorly their team played against the Dolphins, so I expect them to be really focused. Plus, Belichick usually takes care of business in Week 17 tilts and has a great track record in same-season divisional revenge games.

Week 17 NFL Picks - Late Games Buccaneers at Falcons, Ravens at Bengals, Steelers at Browns, Chiefs at Broncos, Chargers at Raiders, Seahawks at Cardinals, Cowboys at Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.