So much for any doubts about a September taper: with the street expecting a 165K NFP number for June, the actual print of 195K following an upward revised May print of 195K as well, means the September flow fade is now virtually assured. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 7.6% despite expectations of a drop to 7.5%, although the real action was in the underemployment rate which exploded from 13.8% to 14.3%.

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 182,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities. (See table B-1.)

Leisure and hospital ity added 75,000 jobs in June. Monthly job growth in this industry has averaged 55,000 thus far in 2013, almost twice the average gain of 30,000 per month in 2012. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to expand, increasing by 52,000 in June. Employment in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry also continued to trend up in June (+19,000).

Employment in professional and business services rose by 53,000 in June. Job gains occurred in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+10,000). Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.

Retail trade employment increased by 37,000 in June. Within retail trade, employment increased by 9,000 in building material and garden supply stores and by 8,000 in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Employment in wholesale trade continued to trend up (+11,000).

Health care continued to add jobs in June, with a gain of 20,000. Within the industry, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000). A gain of 5,000 jobs in hospitals followed a loss of 8,000 jobs in May.

Employment in financial activities rose by 17,000 in June, with most of the increase occurring in credit intermediation (+6,000) and in insurance carriers and related activities (+6,000).

Federal government employment continued to trend down in June (-5,000) and has declined by 65,000 over the past 12 months.

Employment in most other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, showed little change in June.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in June at 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $24.01. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 51 cents, or 2.2 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $20.14. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.

This fall the economy is going to crash back to the late 2009 levels. Be prepared for this.

Can I ask based on what? In 2008 the catalyst was pretty obvious (collapse of the derivatives market related to mortgage debt and the subsequent freezing of credit markets). What is that catalyst now? Thanks.

37
posted on 07/05/2013 7:11:04 AM PDT
by Wyatt's Torch
(I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)

Skill level is dependent in all fields, I just received a new job my field of endeavor does not provide what would be called a promotion. I had to apply for and interview for a new job at a more senior level. However, I have a Graduate degree and 34 years of experience. People like myself are generally looking at around 3 - 4% unemployment. I have turned down jobs in the last year in part because of pay levels and I am too close to retirement to take on a high stress new career type job. The problem with this report is the part time work which I suspect is a lot of summer jobs. In June schools let out and students are looking for work, graduates need something until they get hired full time. This is not such a great report although it will be spun as great news. We are not even breaking even at this point, and to recover fully we need a sustained level of about 3K new jobs monthly. We may soon look like France with more part time workers, high tax rate and immigrant riots as people begin fighting over resources in the urban areas.

I wish that were the direct cause. The meltdown was already starting. Now Barney Frank taking over the banking committee and Maxine Waters on Financial Services completely missed the boat on Fannie and the banks so that didn’t help. But the dye was already cast bu that point.

45
posted on 07/05/2013 7:58:53 AM PDT
by Wyatt's Torch
(I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)

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