Hurricanes, Weather and other things – Jay Hobgood's Web site and blog

Tag Archives: Kenya

Tropical Cyclone Sagar brought wind and rain to Djibouti and Western Somalia on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sagar was centered at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 43.4°E which put it about 100 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Djibouti City, Djibouti. Sagar was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall on the coast of northwestern Somalia near Bullaxaar on Saturday. Sagar was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. It moving south of an upper level ridge which was generating easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear. The stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation, which was probably due to the vertical wind shear.

Thunderstorms in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Sagar may have produced wind gusts to near hurricane force when Sagar made landfall on the coast of northwestern Somalia. The gusts were capable of causing minor wind damage. Sagar may have generated a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet (1.2 to 2.4 meters) near where the center made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Sagar was dropping heavy rain on parts of extreme western Somalia and Djibouti. The heavy rain was capable of producing flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar has a small circulation and Sagar will likely weaken quickly as moves inland into drier air over eastern Africa. Even though it will weaken quickly, Sagar could also drop heavy heavy over parts of eastern Ethiopia and flash floods could occur in that region.

Thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala dissipated and it weakened as moved northeast of Madagascar. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Antsirañana, Madagascar. Fantala was moving west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala reversed course again on Saturday and it is moving over the same part of the South Indian Ocean that it already crossed twice during the past few days. The winds produced by Fantala mixed cooler water up to to the surface of the ocean during its previous passages over the same region. The cooler water means that there is less energy available to power the circulation of Tropical Cyclone. Although the winds continue to rotate around the center of circulation, there are no thunderstorms near the core of Fantala. There are still several thunderstorms in rainbands farther to the east of the center of circulation.

If new thunderstorms do not develop around the core of the circulation, the winds will gradually spin down and the tropical cyclone will dissipate within a few days. Upper level winds blowing from the west-northwest are also generating some vertical wind shear, which will make it more difficult for new thunderstorms to form.

A subtropical ridge southwest of Fantala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala is forecast to pass north of Madagascar and move over the Seychelles. It could be even weaker by the time it gets to the Seychelles.