This MIT algorithm predicts 'dangerous' waves

The ocean can be cruel and unforgiving. To help give sailors some advanced warning of "dangerous" rogue waves computer scientists have created a new algorithm to predict swells.

The tool, developed by MIT researchers, is intended to give sailors a two or three minute warning of a large, unexpected, wave. This will give those onboard the ship the ability to shut down systems or introduce emergency protocols.

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Wave and tidal prediction as a concept isn't a new, with the height of tides regularly predicted by measuring positions of the Earth, Sun and Moon. However, rogue, or freak waves, happen on rare occasions and are unpredictable. In 2008 a freak wave forced a ferry aground in Blackpool. It's also possible to analyse different waves and their movements from sensors in the sea.

The algorithm created by the MIT team -- which is set to be published this week in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics this week -- uses statistical data, collected from buoys in the ocean, to quantify the range of possible waves for any body of water.

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The system analyses the "nonlinear dynamics" of the data to predict which groups of waves have the potential to turn into freak waves. "They were able to predict which groups turned rogue, based on two parameters: a wave group’s length and height," an MIT statement said. Once it was possible to analyse the movement of the waves the researchers created an algorithm to highlight which would change.

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Themis Sapsis, a researcher on the project said: "Using data and equations, we’ve determined for any given sea state the wave groups that can evolve into rogue waves. "Of those, we only observe the ones with the highest probability of turning into a rare event. That’s extremely efficient to do". The method, the computer scientists say, is able to predict when a rogue wave will happen several minutes before it does.

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At least, in the lab. For the process to be used in the real world, ships and offshore platforms, such as oil rigs, would have to use high resolution scanning technologies such as LIDAR and radar to scan the waves around them.

Those looking for rogue waves to protect ships and structures at sea aren't the only ones crunching data, though. Start-up Stormsurf, is using computational power to search for storms that are due to hit the Northern Californian shore.

Using data from the Jason-2 satellite founder Mark Sponsler looks for data to predict giant waves that are used in the Titans of Mavericks big-wave competition.