Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Switch Princeton and Radcliffe, and we enter IRAs in a similar position to that of last year. Wisconsin coming off a Sprints win, Princeton (Radcliffe last year) coming off a strong regular season but with only a silver medal at Sprints, and Georgetown gaining speed throughout the season to finish third at Sprints. It all made for a rather unpredictable national championship regatta.

The favorites in this year's first heat are Wisconsin and Georgetown. Radcliffe probably has the best opportunity to send one of those two to the reps, especially now that they are able to bring the freshmen fully into the mix. Loyola Marymount will get a feel for an Ohio State crew that knocked off Long Beach State at Dad Vail, while MIT, which has struggled in the V8 this year, will see if it has a shot at the grand final.

The second heat may be the more difficult of the two, with Princeton and Stanford, two crews close in speed, facing UCF, Bucknell, Lehigh, and Long Beach State. UCF is a relative unknown, having last raced at Windermere in mid-April. Bucknell is a complete unknown, since they only boated a light eight twice, neither time against any crews at IRAs. Bucknell only lost a couple of athletes from last year's boat, but apparently some of last year's lightweights had some weight issues and may have made a permanent move to heavyweight. This will be a good test for LBS since although they've beaten Lehigh before, they haven't faced competition at the level of Princeton and Stanford. Lehigh gets a chance to show what they've learned from their Dad Vail experience. Of Stanford and Princeton, I actually think the Tigers may be in the most danger of finding themselves in the reps. Stanford is getting faster but having lost to Princeton before, will want to make sure no one sneaks up on them for second. If Princeton snoozes at all, they fall behind Stanford and are then worried about trying to stay ahead of Bucknell and UCF, two crews who could make a run at them. Sounds unlikely, but it happened to Wisconsin last year.

It's hard to imagine a final without Wisconsin, Georgetown, Princeton, and Stanford. Given Radcliffe's new pool of talent (even if there are no new faces in the boat), I suspect they'll pick up speed and make the grand. The battle for last place in the final should be a dog fight, and it's hard to call it now. Thanks to Stanford, I would guess that either Bucknell or UCF will race the petite after making last year's grand, but in no way is it a foregone conclusion that one of those two makes it in.

If we're completely honest about how the field looked at the beginning of the season, we'll admit that it looked weak. Other than Princeton, that is. While Wisconsin lost five from last year's boat, and everyone else lost at least two, Princeton lost none. None, by the way, from a boat that beat the Badgers in the heat in 2006. If this isn't the year of the Tiger, when will it be? Somehow, though, Princeton finds itself an underdog. The Tigers no doubt know what their issues are, and if they spent the last few weeks making some technical corrections and seat racing with that fast 2V, they could blow away the field. If they simply did pieces, they're in for disappointment. Wisconsin comes in with a young crew (four sophomores), but as the favorite. Their speed this year not only puts them in position to win their fourth national championship, but suggests that the string won't end this year. Stanford, meanwhile, could surprise everyone. With an even younger crew of three freshmen and one sophomore, the Cardinal is in a position to make a sustained run at the national championship. [Update: See comments for more information on the latest boatings.]

All signs point to another tight final this year, and given last year's surprising turn of events, just about anything can happen.

13 comments:

Anonymous
said...

So looking at the lineups on regattacentral.com, Princeton has the exact same lineup as they did at sprints, while Georgetown and Wisco have each added a frosh to the varsity boat. Princeton actually has six from last year's boat still together. Stanford has seven of the same faces from when they raced Princeton at Windermere. Interesting though that Radcliffe's lineup is not posted. I wonder how many new faces are in that boat.

Responding to anon above, UCF went to NCAA's and the NCAA rules prohibit any athlete from competing in two National Championship races so if any lights raced in the heavy boats then they cannot race at IRA's

According to their press release, there was actually only 1 lightweight in the lightweight 8 at NCAAs. There were 5 more lightweights amongst the team that could have raced, but the coaches are no longer letting lightweights cross over.

Interesting that Princeton would be the only boat without lineup changes. Other than Radcliffe, i would have thought they would be the most likely to change. A recent loss to Wisconsin, a monster 2V to work with... Then again, maybe the current rowers stepped up and trounced all challengers in seat races. Sounds like they're pretty confident, but I don't know...

Other readers (or maybe the same one as above) have also noted that UCF will no longer allow former lightweights to cross back into the lightweight boat for the national championship. A 16th place finish at NCAAs seems like a pretty tough trade for a potential medal at IRAs, but as we saw, that's how many coaches think of the category. As it turns out, the five remaining lightweight rowers were sacrificed in a vain attempt to qualify the entire team for NCAAs. Yes, one more example of the effect of the NCAA on lightweight rowing.

Bucknell did have their lights rowing heavy this year, but only to race as lights as well. As they did have some of their lights in their V8 and other fast boats, those rowers are also in the light V8. It'll be interesting to see the power the lights got from rowing against heavies.