Cabinet minister and former Labor leader Simon Crean, who backed Julia Gillard last year, was forced to defend himself on Thursday after being spotted at dinner on Wednesday night with Kevin Rudd and his hard-core caucus supporters.
Photo: Erin Jonasson

Supporters of Kevin Rudd are talking openly of bringing the matter to a head either in March or June, the only two occasions the full Parliament will sit before the September 14 election.

But the former prime minister, who has dramatically increased his public profile this week, is telling people privately he does not intend to challenge Ms Gillard, an undertaking he gave publicly a year ago when she beat him by 71 votes to 31 for the lead­ership.

On breakfast television on Friday, Mr Rudd again said he would not challenge and called for calm after opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull predicted on Thursday night that he would replace Ms Gillard before the election.

“Give us a break,” Mr Rudd said.

“I said a week or so ago everyone should take a long cold shower. What I’d say to Malcolm ... is it’s time to jump in the ice bath.

“It’s not happening. Not happening.”

His supporters, however, are banking on the majority of the caucus shifting its support to Mr Rudd, removing the necessity for a challenge.

Both sides agree that Mr Rudd’s numbers are stuck at between 40 and 42 votes, leaving him about 10 short of a majority.

Crucial to Ms Gillard surviving is the support of ministers Bill Shorten and Mark Butler. Both control small blocs of votes and are holding firm behind Ms Gillard.

Mr Shorten played a leading role in ousting Mr Rudd for Ms Gillard in 2010 and his colleagues say he can ill-afford to back another change now because he wants to take over as leader in the longer term.

This aspiration would be dented if he cultivated a reputation as a backroom operator.

“Bill would be very reluctant to shift because of the shit he took last time,’’ said one MP close to Mr Shorten.

“He wants to be known as a prime minister in waiting.’’

‘We can’t blame Rudd for this week’

Several sources said that while Ms Gillard was holding up numerically, the line had shifted after a tough week in which both she and Treasurer Wayne Swan were taken to task over the failure of the mining tax to raise any significant revenue.

On Thursday, Mr Swan got himself in a tangle over whether there would be cuts to income tax in the May budget. Then, in question time, he mistakenly said the unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, instead of 5.4 per cent.

“We can’t blame Rudd for this week,’’ said one MP who backs Ms Gillard.

The mining tax is linked to the leadership because Mr Rudd was deposed at the height of a campaign against the original tax by the miners.

Afterwards, Ms Gillard, Mr Swan and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson hastily renegotiated a watered-down compromise. If Ms Gillard were to go, so would Mr Swan, and their detractors feel this is no longer viewed as the impediment it was a year ago.

On Monday, Ms Gillard will address the Australian Workers Union annual conference. Mr Swan will speak on Tuesday. Support from the AWU, with which Mr Shorten and Mr Swan are affiliated, is critical to Ms Gillard’s leadership.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said he was happy to face either Mr Rudd or Ms Gillard at the election. “The trouble that we have got at the moment is no one is quite sure who is going to lead the Labor Party – the faceless men haven’t decided who the prime minister is going to be,’’ he said.

By contrast, the Coalition was “a strong and stable alternative’’.

Cabinet minister and former Labor leader Simon Crean, who backed Ms Gillard last year, was forced to defend himself on Thursday after being spotted at dinner on Wednesday night with Mr Rudd and his hard-core caucus supporters. Mr Crean has said nobody should read anything into his attendance at the dinner.