Archive for the ‘adrian nieto’ tag

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Even though there wasn’t any 2016 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means. Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.

Full draft results here for the 12/8/16. For the sixth straight year, the Nats did not take anyone in the major league phase. For the third time in a row, we did not have anyone taken either. Lets pause to congratulate the team for its excellence in player analysis.

In the minor league phase, the Nats did not take anyone, but did have one player taken: RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto. We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning. He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately. Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

(These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, but suffice it to say that Walby isn’t exactly a high-end prospect on our collective radars.)

This occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon, but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. After playing sparingly for New Orleans in 2016, he is a MLFA as we speak.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.

Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball. Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.

In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.

The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.

Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.

Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.

Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.

Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.

Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team. Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Even though there wasn’t much 2015 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means. Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.

What just occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He’s entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. I’m calling him “Anthony Rendon” insurance for 2016.

These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contract; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible.

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. Given the struggles of Jose Lobaton this past year, I’m slightly surprised he didn’t consider coming back to his original franchise. Or, perhaps more to the point, knowing what I know about his dealings with the Nats front office over the years … perhaps I’m not (his agent Joshua Kusnick is a frequent guest on the NatsGM podcast, hosted by Ryan Sullivan).

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). As far as I can tell he’s still in the Boston organization, perhaps for one more year to see if he pans out.

Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball.

In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.

The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.

Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.

Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He’s still hanging in there. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.

Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.

Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.

Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team. Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough

The title of my previous post was pretty simple: “Nats 2014 Draft == failure.” And it resulted in a rather spirited debate in the comments about the 2014 draft, the 2008 draft in hindsight, etc.

In that debate, I postulated my benchmarks for judging whether or not a team’s draft was “good” or not. Here were the six guidelines I stated for judgement, going round by round/section by section in the draft:

a. 1st rounder: future MLB above average regular to all-star

b. 2nd rounder: future MLB regular

c. 3rd-5th: expect at least one future MLB player in at least a backup/bullpen role

d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level.

e. 11th-20th: hope for at least three players who matriculate to AA or higher

f. 20th and above: hope for one-two players to matriculate to AA or higher

Lets go back through all 10 Nats drafts and see whether these guidelines hold up. For each of the 6 requirements, we’ll give a quick “yes/no the condition was met” for each year. Critical to this analysis is the Nats DraftTracker XLS, milb.com and baseball-reference.com for searching for old players. Also useful is the Baseball America executive database, which populated the staff in charge of each draft.

Editors Note post-posting: I’ve added in the total known bonus amounts, per suggestion in the comments. Data taken from the Draft Tracker. Actual figures are likely higher because most bonus figures past the 10th round are unknown (but likely minimal). Also per good suggestion, I’m adding in the draft position for context, since its far easier to get a future all-star if picking in the top 5 versus later on.

d. Yes: 6th rounder Marco Estrada has turned into a decent starter (albeit for someone else after we released him)

e. Yes: 11th rounder John Lannan and 12th rounder Craig Stammen turned into MLBers, far above expectations here. 18th rounder Tim Pahuta had long ML career for us, playing 3 years at AA.

f. Yes: 33rd rounder Ryan Butcher was a 6yr MLFA who left the org but now has MLB experience with Atlanta. No other 20th+ round draftees made it out of A-ball, but Butcher’s MLB matriculation makes up for it.

2005: Success, inarguably. 6 guys matriculating to the majors is a winning draft, especially considering the lack of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the ownership confusion, and the budget restrictions put on the team.

a. No: 1st rounder Chris Marrero looks like a 4-a guy at best and 1st rounder Colten Willems never made it above A-ball.

b. No: the team failed to sign 2nd rounder Sean Black and 2nd rounder Stephen Englund never made it out of low-A.

c. No: none of their 3rd-5th picks made the majors. The highest one of these guys got was 5th rounder Corey VanAllen, who did pitch in AAA after passing through the rule-5 draft and finished out his 6-years with the org. VanAllen is in Indy ball in 2014.

d. No: they didn’t even sign their 7th, 9th or 10th round picks. The closest they got to a MLBer here was 6th rounder Zech Zinicola, who played at AAA for quite a while, was rule-5 picked and returned, and now sits in Baltimore’s AA team.

e. Yes: 12th rounder Cole Kimball made it the majors briefly, while 17th rounder Erik Arnesen, 18th rounder Adam Carr and 13th rounder Hassan Pena all toiled in AAA for several years.

f. Yes, sort of. We’re all well aware of the success of 41st rounder Brad Peacock, but he was picked under the “draft-and-follow” system that no longer exists. So while yes it was a 41st round pick, in our current system Peacock wouldn’t have been picked at all and/or wouldn’t have signed but would have been picked the subsequent year based on his great first-college juco season. Of the rest of the 20th+ round picks, one guy had a couple months in AA (26th rounder Brett Logan) to serve as a backup catcher; he hit .102/.170/.122 in 20 games in 2007 and was released.

2006: Failure: 3 guys who have MLB appearances but near zero impact for this team. Peacock enabled the Nats to get Gio Gonzalez but I think we see now that Peacock wasn’t the driving prospect in that deal (now that Derek Norris has made an all-star team).

For as much as went right for the team in the 2005 draft, it went wrong in 2006. Was the lack of signing their 7th, 9th and 10th round picks evident of “fiscal restraint” demanded by the other 29 owners? Clearly to me, the focus on HS drafted personnel in this draft has Bowden’s hands all over it, and almost none of them panned out in the slightest.

a. No: The team went one-for-three on its first rounders: Michael Burgess got to AA in his fourth pro season but never further, was flipped for Tom Gorzelanny. Josh Smoker‘s failure has been well documented here. But Ross Detwiler, for all the complaining about his usage and role in this space, did make the majors and looked like a good 4th starter (in 2012). I still believe he could start in this league and is better than a long-man. However, the condition is that a first round pick turns into a successful regular, and this crop failed in all regards.

b. Yes. 2nd rounder Jordan Zimmermann is now a 2-time all-star and is probably the best 2nd round pick the organization has ever had. His successes make up for their other 2nd rounder Jake Smolinksi who has made his MLB debut but not until he became a 6-yr MLFA.

c. Yes. 4th rounder Derek Norris made the 2014 all-star team for Oakland. 3rd rounder Stephen Souza has debuted in the majors and looks quite promising (albeit blocked) for our AAA team. 5th rounder Brad Meyers toiled for us in AAA for years before being released this spring after a long injury recovery.

d. Yes: 10th round pick Patrick McCoy made it to AAA for us, signed with Detroit as a MLFA and debuted this year. We should note for the record though that 6th rounder Jack McGeary was paid as if he was a low-1st rounder and failed pretty spectacularly here.

e. Yes: 20th rounder Jeff Mandel was a long-serving org arm at AA and AAA. 11th rounder Bill Rhinehart was looking like a find, appearning on Nats system prospect lists for a while and getting to AAA before getting flipped for Jonny Gomes.

f. Yes: 28th rounder Boomer Whiting made it to Syracuse before getting released in 2011. 48th rounder (!) Kyle Gunderson was flipped for Logan Kensing in 2009 and made it to Miami/Florida’s AAA squad before getting released.

2007: Success: despite the 1st round failures and the McGeary disaster, the breadth of success in the other categories and the production of the remaining guys weighs out.

a. No: as is well documented, the Nats failed to sign 1st round pick Aaron Crow.

b. No/Inc: 2nd round pick Destin Hood has already passed through Rule-5 waivers once, but has found himself in 2014 and is hitting great for Syracuse (2014’s AAA line: .308/.353/.502). It does make one wonder if he’s worth adding to the 40-man once the season is over to keep him; he’s finishing his 7th pro year and is in line for minor league free agency.

c. Yes: 3rd rounder Danny Espinosa has his critics, but he’s at least a MLB backup or possibly more. 5th rounder Adrian Nieto has stuck with the White Sox after getting plucked in the Rule-5 draft last year and hasn’t been half bad.

d. Yes: 10th rounder Tommy Milone has shown his capabilities as a MLB starter. d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level. 6th rounder Paul Demny remains in the system (on the D/L in Harrisburg) but doesn’t seem like he’ll go much higher at this point.

e. Yes: 16th rounder Tyler Moore has put in meaningful at-bats for the Nats for a few years now. And 19th rounder Steve Lombardozzi looks to be a solid utility/backup infielder in this league for years. Lastly I wonder if the team gave up on 15th rounder J.P. Ramirez too soon; he was paid like a 2nd round pick but was released prior to his MLFA period. He may have only made it to high-A, but his last season was somewhat decent.

f. No: as far as I can tell, nobody of note came in rounds 20 or above from this draft.

2008: Failure: How would you judge this draft? We failed to sign the first rounder, which for me is a huge negative. The second rounder may or may not ever debut in the majors, which is also for me a huge negative because of the huge prevalence of 1st and 2nd rounders on MLB rosters. But we got four (5 counting Nieto) other MLBers out of the rest of the draft, including some very deep-dive picks that you rarely find (Moore and Lombardozzi, aside from Peacock, are the two lowest round picks to ever make it to the majors for this team).

a. Yes: no arguing about either first round pick here: both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen have pitched at all-star levels in their careers.

b. No: 2nd Rounder Jeff Kobernus may have made his MLB debut, but he’s nowhere close to being a “regular” in the majors right now and doens’t seem to be trending that way either.

c. No: 3rd round pick Trevor Holder was a gross over-draft (albeit with known reasons; the team committed an *awful* lot of money to the first two guys on this list) and was released in 2013. 4th rounder A.J. Morris looked quite promising for us, was flipped in the Gorzelanny deal, and this year is pitching effectively for Pittsburgh’s AAA squad after being taken in the minor league Rule-5 portion last off-season. And the Nats failed to sign their 5th rounder. So even if Morris pans out as a MLB-capable player, he’s doing it for someone else.

d. Yes: 9th round pick Taylor Jordan was effective for the team last year and may yet figure in the team’s plans despite his mysterious D/L trip right now. And 6th round pick Michael Taylor has rocketed up the prospect lists for this team, is crushing AA pitching right now, is on the team’s 40-man roster and may very well get a look as 2015’s starting center fielder.

e. Yes: 12th rounder Nathan Karns made the org look quite intelligent when he gave spot starts in 2013 after rocketing up the farm system after finally recovering from arm issues. I wonder if the success they had with Karns was the first impetus for Rizzo to take more gambles on high-end-but-injured arms. 13th rounder Patrick Lehman has bounced around as an org arm for years. 11th rounder Juston Bloxom played a couple years in AA before getting released this year. 16th rounder Sean Nicol is splitting time between AA and AAA this year. Finally, I wanted to note something I never knew before studying this: the Nats drafted Marcus Strohman in the 18th round out of HS; this is the same Strohman who went in the first round three years later to Toronto and who is currently holding down a rotation spot for the playoff-pushing Blue Jays. Wow. He’s listed as a SS on the draft-tracker but clearly is a MLB-calibre starter.

f. Yes: 22nd rounder Danny Rosenbaum has been Syracuse’s “ace” for three seasons now. And a slew of guys drafted in the 20s stuck around for years as middle relievers (Mitchell Clegg, Matt Swynenberg, Evan Bronson, Rob Wort, and Shane McCatty). You just can’t ask for more out of your picks in rounds 20-30.

2009: Success: I’ll take a couple of misses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds given the amount of talent they picked up in the middle and late rounds. Great draft. 6 guys who have debuted in the majors with at least another one likely coming soon.

Note: from 2010 onwards, most of the judgement calls are still “in progress.” We’ll use projections and “small sample sizes” to pass judgement. It is what it is. Feel free to criticize in the comments about using projections and national pundit scouting reports to make judgements.

a. Yes: 1st rounder Bryce Harper has turned into everything the hype suggested. Fun fact; when he went on an rehab assignment in Potomac, he was the 2nd youngest guy on the roster. Remember that when you criticize the guy for not being better than he already is: if he was “playing by the rules,” he’d be jsut finishing his junior year of college.

b. No/Inc: 2nd rounder Sammy Solis has been one injury issue after another. He missed all of 2012 with Tommy John, came back slowly in 2013, but now sits on the AA D/L with another “elbow” issue. He was protected on the 40-man roster last fall, but you have to wonder what’s to come of him. He’s finishing his 5th pro season and he’s got exactly one start above A-Ball.

c. Yes/Inc: 4th rounder A.J. Cole was paid like a late first rounder, and after some struggles he’s really come onto the scene this year. He was already really young for AA and “solved” it, and is now in AAA holding his own. The other guys in this category are less impressive: both Rick Hague and Jason Martinson are repeating AA and not really hitting well enough to push for promotions. This could be a side-effect of the huge amount of money committed to Harper and Cole.

d. Yes: 9th round pick Aaron Barrett went from unknown/unrecognized prospect to the Nats 40-man roster last fall to being lights-out middle reliever in the major league pen this year. As a 9th round college senior pick. 8th rounder Matthew Grace may be next; after toiling as a mediocre starter, he became a reliever in 2013 and has been lights out in AA and AAA this year. And he’s not just a LOOGY: 56 IP in 33 appearances and he’s given up just 6 ER in that time.

e. Yes: 15th round pick David Freitas, after getting traded to Oakland for Kurt Suzuki, got traded again to Baltimore and now is in AAA. 12th round pick Robbie Ray has made his MLB debut for Detroit after going over in the Doug Fister deal. 11th rounder Neil Holland toils in the Harrisburg pen admirably.

f. Yes: 23rd rounder Colin Bates and 26th rounder Christopher Manno both are in the Harrisburg pen. 22nd rounder Cameron Selik made it to AA before hitting his ceiling and being released earlier this year. And 32nd rounder Randolph Oduber is a starting OF in Potomac with decent splits and a shot of moving up.

2010: Success: It may have been a no-brainer to take Harper, and it may have been an example of the “checkbook” winning in their picks of Cole and Ray, but you have to hand it to this team; they bought two high-end prep guys out of their college and they’re both looking like huge successes. And they got a MLB servicable reliever out of a college senior sign who they paid just $35,000 in bonus money. Great work.

a. Yes: 1st rounder Anthony Rendon was on everyone’s “all star snub” lists this year, while their other 1st rounder Alex Meyer remains one of the top pitching prospects in the game and seems likely to debut later this year. Their supp-1st rounder Brian Goodwin remains on every pundit’s prospect lists even if he seemingly has been passed on the organizational “future starting Center-fielder” depth chart. There’s no chance the team leaves him exposed in the upcoming rule-5 draft, so he’ll have at least three more years to prove he belongs.

b. n/a: forfeited for Adam LaRoche signing.

c. No/Inc: Right now our 3rd through 5th picks are looking iffy; 4th rounder Matthew Purke was paid like an upper first rounder and has been a massive disappointment. Right now he’s recovering from Tommy John and faces an uncertain future. 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull has gotten lit up in high-A this year, his second crack at the league. 5th rounder Matt Skole may be the most promising of the bunch; he crushed 27 homers in his first season of full-season ball only to miss all of 2013 because of a freak injury. Can Skole continue developing and make the majors on a full-time basis? Can Purke at this point?

d. Yes: With the call-up of 6th rounder Taylor Hill earlier this year, this category is met. Which is good because the rest of the 6th-10th rounders from this year are struggling. Two are already released/retired, one is MIA and the lone remaining active player (Brian Dupra) is struggling as a starter/swing-man in AA. But Hill is a huge win; a college senior draftee on minimal bonus rocketing through the minors and forcing his way onto the 25-man roster.

e. Yes/Inc: It is far too early to fully judge this category, but it is looking promising despite the fact that the team failed to sign SIX of its ten picks beween the 11th and 20th round. 11th rounder Caleb Ramsey is already in AA. 16th rounder Deion Williams is on the mound (not a SS as in the Draft Tracker) and is struggling in short-A. 18th rounder Nick Lee is struggling in Potomac this year but has shown a huge arm and seems like he’ll eventually convert to loogy (especially considering his undersized stature); I can see Lee making it far as a matchup lefty reliever with swing-and-miss stuff. The lone failure at this point is 12th rounder Blake Monar, sort of inexplicably released after a decent 2012 season in Short-A.

f. Yes: 30th round pick Bryan Harper earned his way to Harrisburg. 45th round college senior pick Richie Mirowski also made it to AA, where he wasn’t half bad last year, though at the moment he’s back in Potomac. And there’s three other players drafted in the 20th or higher who are active on Potomac’s roster this year and who may get moved up. Decent production out of the bottom of this draft so far.

2011: Projected Success: As discussed before, I believe the selection of Rendon was a “no-brainer” based on a unique set of circumstances that occured on draft day, but credit the management team for having the stones to pick him when other GMs didn’t. I’m sure the Mariners (especially) would like a re-do on that draft (they picked 2nd overall, got soft-tossing local product Danny Hultzen, who was sidelined last year with all sorts of shoulder issues and is no sure bet to ever make it back. They rolled the dice with Purke and so far seem to be losing, but Purke was himself a 1-1 talent at one point (remember, he had his $4M+ deal with Texas pulled thanks to MLB-stewardship at the time) and was probably worth the risk. I’d like to see Skole reach the majors in some capacity before declaring this draft a full success.

Note: from here onwards, everything is a projection and is based on scouting the stat lines. I’m going to sound negative where others sound positive and vice versa. Hey, its better than writing nothing.

a. Yes/inc: 1st rounder Lucas Giolito (so far) has shown himself to be at full speed post TJ surgery and is mostly in the top 10-15 of every professional scouting pundit’s list for best prospect in the entirety of the minors. He’s got a #1 starter ceiling, a huge frame and three plus pitches. He’s projecting to be everything you’d hope for from an upper first rounder.

b. No/inc: It is hard to squint at 2nd rounder Tony Renda at this point and project him as a future “MLB regular.” Sure he’s hitting .297 in Potomac, and sure his numbers at the plate have not varied much in his three pro seasons. Unfortunately he’s vastly undersized and he has no power in a time where pro middle infielders are expected to provide serious pop. Maybe he can forge a career like Jamey Carroll or like a Jose Altuve, but the odds are against him. I don’t mean to discount the guy because he’s 5’8″ but we all know there’s a significant bias in the industry towards undersized guys. Heck, a pitcher is considered “short” if he isn’t 6’2″ these days.

c. No/inc: So far the guys picked 3rd-5th are also struggling. 3rd rounder Brett Mooneyham‘s struggles are well documented here. 4th rounder Brandon Miller continues to show great power but has missed much of this season with a hamstring injury (he’s on rehab in the GCL as we speak). Lastly 5th rounder Spencer Keiboom suffered a blown UCL that basically cost him the whole 2013 season. He’s got great numbers in low-A this year but is two years too old for the league. Keiboom’s talents more centered on his defense than his bat, so he may still push forward as a future backup catcher. But until he does, this category falls in the “no” side.

d. Maybe/inc: The leading hope for some MLB success out of our 6th-10th round picks right now resides in one of two middle relievers: 7th round pick Robert Benincasa or 9th round pick Derek Self. You never know; one of these guys could turn into the next Aaron Barrett. 8th round SS Stephen Perez made the all-star team this year in Potomac and could feature as a future utility infielder. The team has already released its 6th round pick Hayden Jennings, and their 10th rounder (local Rockville product Craig Manual) was a college senior catcher who is backing up other catchers in the system for the time being). He may continue to hang around but unless he gets a starting gig he’s going to get replaced by someone newer.

e. Yes/inc: 17th rounder Blake Schwartz has already made it to AA, where he struggled and he now sits back in Potomac (where he was great last year, go figure). 11th rounder Brian Rauh got a spot-start in AA last year but has bounced in and out of the Potomac rotation this year. 16th rounder Ronald Pena is working his way off injury but faces a long road to move up thanks to a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. The team has already released four of its 11th-20th round picks; the remaining out-field players (12th rounder Carlos Lopez and 19th rounder Bryan Lippincott) both seem to face long odds as college senior draftees still residing in the low minors to even make it up to AA at this point. To be fair, Lopez missed most of 2013 with an unknown injury, so we’ll give him a slight pass. Lippincott sits in XST right now.

f. No/inc: 33rd rounder Mike McQuillan has hung around and currently serves as a utility guy/bench player for Potomac. A couple of relievers remain on squads: 29th rounder Leonard Hollins is hurt but is on a full-season squad, and 30th rounder Robert Orlan was with Hagerstown to start the season but is back in Auburn. The rest of the 20th round and up guys features carnage; eight college senior draftees already released to go along with 10 unsigned (mostly high schoolers) picks in the later rounds. One unsigned pick looks interesting; all-american freshman UNC player Skye Bolt may be a big-time 2015 draft pick. But otherwise, I’m predicting that we dont’ get even a AA player out of the last 20 rounds of this draft at this point.

2012: Projected Failure: Frankly, this is looking like it may be a one player draft. At this point, I don’t think you can look at *any* other player in this draft and project even a bench/fringe 25-man roster guy besides Giolito. Now ask yourself: if Giolito fulfills expectations and becomes an “ace,” a top 15-20 arm in the majors while the rest of this draft basically becomes high-A and AA filler, does that change your opinion of the draft success/failure?

a. n/a: No 2013 first rounder thanks to the supurfluous signing of Rafael Soriano. As noted at the time, the Nats missed out on players like Sean Manaea, Ryan Stanek or Ian Clarkin, all of whom were available at the time of their lost 1st rounder. Manaea in particular has flourished, rising up prospect list charts and sporting a healthy K/9 rate in high-A this year. I’d like to call this in and among itself a failure (given my reservations about paying for saves in general), but have to admit that Soriano has been pretty durn good this year.

b. No/inc: 2nd rounder Jake Johansen thus far has not lived up to advance billing in his first year in full-season ball. He’s averaging just 4.5 innings per outing and sports a 5.00 ERA and less than a K/inning. I can understand the difficult adjustment to pro ball, but I don’t get how his vaunted velocity and size combination aren’t resulting in more swing-and-miss. He’s given no indication that he can avoid what scouts have been saying all along (that he’s destined for the bullpen), he’s way too wild and way too hittable.

c. Yes/inc: the Nats collection of 3rd rounder Drew Ward, 4th rounder Nick Pivetta and now especially 5th rounder Austin Voth are making this management team look very smart. All Voth has done since forcing his promotion to High-A is give up 10 hits and ONE earned run in 33 innings over five starts. That’s just ridiculous. And he’s doing it while maintaining a 36/5 K/BB ratio. There’s zero reason for him to still be in Potomac at this point. I don’t know what Voth’s ceiling is, but its getting pushed.

d. No/inc: Thanks to the new CBA’s rules, most 6th-10th rounders are throw-away/college senior picks these days. So it’ll be awfully hard to depend on one of them turning into a 25-man roster guy. The best bet out of this draft will be having either 6th rounder Cody Gunter or 7th rounder James Yezzo eventually matriculating to the majors. The other guys in this category were 15k bonus college seniors, one of whom (9th rounder Jake Joyce has *already* been released). Do we think either Gunter or Yezzo projects as a major leaguer? Not right now: Gunter’s struggling in short-A for the 2nd year in a row and Yezzo is an undersized 1B showing little power.

e. Maybe/inc: Right now the pickings for the guys taken 11th-20th look pretty slim too. Three were senior signs who have already been released and we failed to sign our 16th round pick Willie Allen (though can’t fault the Nats for that: doing research on him for last year’s draft review showed all sorts of inconsistencies with him, including whether he’s even still playing baseball in college). But 11th rounder John Simms is looking like a great find; he’s already in the AA rotation and holding his own (though you could argue it was out of need, not performance). Among those left, 10th rounder Brandon Middleton and 15th rounder Isaac Ballou are starting and playing well in Hagerstown, 12th rounder Andrew Cooper is strugging in low-A, 13th rounder John Costa has yet to debut for the team thanks to TJ surgery, and 17th rounder Geoffrey Perrott was a senior catcher who got a grand total of 13 at-bats in 2013 and has remained in XST so far thisyear, perhaps to serve as a bullpen catcher for others remaining in Viera and perhaps because he was hurt most of last year and may still be recovering. If Simms continues to rise and we get a couple more longer-lasting prospects out of this crew, we’ll convert this to a success.

f. Maybe/Inc: The Nats picked seven college seniors in the 21st round or above and so far they’re all with Hagerstown. Middle infielders Cody Dent (22nd rounder) and Willie Medina (31st rounder) both hit in the .220s last year, are hitting in the .220s (or worse) this year, and seem like they may not last the season. However the pitchers in this bunch are looking better and better. 28th rounder Joey Webb has a 2.53 ERA, 30th rounder Ryan Ullmann has as 3.10 ERA and got a high-A up-and-back call-up, and 34th rounder Jake Walsh dominated Low-A and earned a call-up to Potomac. Only 29th rounder Michael Sylvestri seems to be in trouble among these senior signs; after struggling in Short-A last year, he gave up a ton of runs in 6 mid-relief outings and is currently in re-assignment purgatory. What of the non senior-signs? 24th round pick Matthew Derosier is struggling in short-A and 23rd round outfielder Garrett Gordon seems like he’s a bench player in Auburn. But a revelation may be 25th round prep draft pick Travis Ott. He holds a 2.10 ERA through 6 starts in Auburn despite being quite young for the league. So, the trend seems good that we’ll get value out of the bottom part of this draft.

2013: Projected Failure: Sorry to say; no first rounder, a middle reliever out of your 2nd rounder, perhaps a 5th starter out of the 3-5 rounds, and some org filler from the bottom of the draft? How many players from this draft do you realistically project to make the majors?

a. Maybe/inc: 1st rounder Erick Fedde may project as a MLB rotation guy, but he’s not projecting as an ace level arm. So if he comes back from surgery 100%, if he keeps moving up the chain, if he makes the majors and if he has an impact we’ll give this a yes. Lots of ifs.

b. n/a: we failed to sign our 2nd rounder Andrew Suarez.

c. Maybe/inc: The hopes here fall on 3rd rounder Jakson Reetz and 4th rounder Robbie Dickey, since our 5th rounder was a senior lefty out of non-baseball powerhouse Duke. How do we dream on Reetz and Dickey? Maybe Reetz turns into our next Derek Norris while Dickey turns into the next Austin Voth. Lets hope so, because both so far have had rather inauspicious starts in the GCL (Reetz batting .220 and Dickey posting an ERA in the 12s). To be fair Reetz is a kid and Dickey isn’t much older, so we have a long way to go before passing true judgement.

d. No/inc: We failed to sign the 8th round pick Austin Byler (and from reading the tea leaves, it didn’t seem like we were ever even close). Our 7th, 8th and 10th round picks were low-bonus college seniors with little hope of advancing. So this category falls squarely on the shoulders of 6th rounder Austin Williams, who looks ok so far in Short-A.

e. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

f. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

2014: Not promising: An injured first rounder, no 2nd rounder, really just a handful of non senior-signs elsewhere in the draft. As I opined in the previous post discussion, I just don’t like the looks of this class.

So. 5200 words later, I think I actually like my guidelines. I think though that the new CBA forces teams into making a bunch of “throw-away” picks in the 6th-10th rounds, so my criteria needs to be adjusted downward for that category in the last few years. Otherwise I think it holds.

What say you?

Editor’s Post-posting thoughts. Based on the analysis above, the franchise has 5 successes and 5 failures (or projected failures) in ten drafts. After up and down drafts the first four years, we had three straight successes in 2009-2011, but now I feel like we’ve had three successive failures from 2012 onwards. Here’s a sobering thought about those successes and failures: lets talk about bonus money spent.

In the 5 drafts I call successes, the team spent (chronologically): $3,990,500, $7,619,300, $18,806,000, $11,413,200 and $11,325,000 in bonus money.

Era 1 may be just the way it used to go; sometimes you’d get wins in the draft, other times you’d strike out. Era 2 was the glory years of Nats drafting, though the cynic may point out that picking three consensus 1-1 talents and spending 8 figures in bonus money wasn’t that hard. Era 3 is more troubling: why has this management team not done better in the CBA/limited bonus era?

(I should have published this in early December but got caught up in a glut of other posts; posting this now in lieu of just trashing it).

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. In November 2011 I did a Rule-5 Draft history, and I thought I’d update it for the last few drafts, now that 2013’s draft is complete. Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Note I’m mostly only doing this analysis for the major league section of the rule 5 draft; there’s just far too little eventual MLB success to be found in the AAA and AA sections of the Rule 5 draft to do the analysis. I will note some notables who get snapped up in the minor league section for the later years.

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.

Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.

Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.

Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York this year he made his way to the majors for some appearances. If the team drafted him, why not keep him through spring training of 2012 to see if he was worth keeping? It just seemed odd to give up on the draft pick while procedurally you could still keep him. Verdict: failure.

Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and likely will be cut loose this off-season. Verdict: failure.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines are awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Even now, with his career .187 batting line, he couldn’t have helped us.

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he’s healthy or if he can win a AAA rotation spot at this point with the talent we have matriculating upwards.

Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. I think he remains a minor league caliber player, with too little offense for a corner outfield position but not enough speed to play center.

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. As most readers here know, Rosenbaum toiled in AAA a full season, putting up good but not great numbers, and seems like he’s destined to repeat that season for us again in 2014.

Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. At this point the team must feel relatively lucky to have gotten Kobernus back, given his call-up and possible future role as a backup.

In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.

The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.

Once again, the team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters noted though, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who have a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto has never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 this season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I speculated in the comments of other posts that perhaps the White Sox just needed some catching help during the split squad games in 2014’s spring training, because the odds of Nieto sticking on a MLB roster for a full year seem incredibly slim. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece for all of this reasoning. Its hard not to see him getting returned to the Nats by April 1st.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. As mentioned above, these minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contracts.

Summary: we’ve drafted 10 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 9 of the 10 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team (the exceptions perhaps being Martinez or possibly Nelo). Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough

Who might the team protect ahead of the Rule-5 Draft this year? The topic came up recently in the comments so I thought i’d publish this post to open up the debate again. I’ve got a rule-5 history post as well that i’ll post later this week. And, as it turns out, Nov 20th is the deadline for adding players to the 40-man, so today’s as good a day as any to discuss. (Kilgore’s analysis here, Baseball’s off-season calendar here).

The Nats off-season rule-5 protection debate really started in late August with an observation made about Zach Walters from Adam Kilgore in his pre-Sept 1 callup piece on 8/27/13. It was continued by the announced list of Nats AFL participants, which included a couple of significant Rule-5 protection candidates. Walters was subsequently added to the 40-man and called up, ending any Rule-5 speculation.

As (allegedly) was Steve Souza, who hit the cover off the ball in AA in 2013, with power to go with his CF defensive capabilities. He followed that up by hitting .357 in the AFL, trailing just mega-prospects Kris Bryant and C.J. Cron for top hitting honors in Arizona. I say Souza was “allegedly added” to the 40-man because, while news of his 11/1/13 40-man addition was widelypublished at the time, but his name does not appear on MLB.com’s 40-man roster for the team nor does there exist an 11/1/13 transaction (Editor’s update: it was posted 10/31/13 and the MLB 40-man database was missing him in error; it was eventually fixed). I don’t know if its just a procedural thing or if all the beat reporters mis-reported the event and it should have been characterized as a “planned future” move. But I’ll assume for the rest of this article that Souza is going to be put on the 40-man before the rule-5 draft.

Two of the most obvious Rule-5 candidates (even if Souza was technically a minor league free-agent to be) are now protected. Who else might we see added?

Using the indispensable sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then giving some thought to prospect acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts. The quick rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2010 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2009 or before is newly eligible this year.

Newly Eligible Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Rick Hague: 2B/SS from Harrisburg; .673 OPS in AA, not good enough OBP for a middle infielder and no power. He’s well down the pecking order of backup middle infielders in this organization right now, and wouldn’t be a great organization loss even if he was selected. Chances of being drafted or protected: very slim.

Jason Martinson: SS from Potomac/Harrisburg: Martinson finally earned a promotion above A-ball, where he promptly hit .185 in AA in 54 games. He showed a ton of power in 2012 for a SS (22 homers) but it was in Low- and High-A ball. Maybe he is a late bloomer. However he’s not in jeopardy of being protected or drafted at this point.

No other 2010 college aged drafted hitter has even made it to Harrisburg; so they’re not going to get drafted or protected. This includes three draft picks in the first 10 rounds of that draft; understandable in that the team committed millions to 3 top guys in 2010 and skimped elsewhere.

Sammy Solis: LHP with Potomac: coming back from injury in 2013 he pitched in Potomac the whole season. He was a bit “old” for A-ball but its understandible considering where he’s been. He excelled in the AFL and is being mentioned as a possible Loogy with the big-league team, so I’d have to think he’s a lock to be protected ahead of the draft.

Harrisburg middle relievers Matthew Grace, Aaron Barrett and Neil Holland: all three have good to excellent numbers in relief this year for AA Harrisburg. Barrett especially as the closer. Grace is left-handed and could feature as someone’s loogy. Tough calls here; you can make a case that the team would like to retain all three guys as bullpen reinforcements in the coming years. You can also make the riskier case that all three guys, while valuable and skilled players, may not stick on a MLB roster the entire year so perhaps they’re good bets to be left unprotected versus someone already on the 40-man roster.

The rest of the remaining 2010 college-age draftees are all either currently on the DL or are in Hagerstown or below, making them very slim candidates to be protected or picked. Cameron Selik was one guy who could have made some noise, but he got hurt this year and isn’t going to get picked.

2009 High School-age drafted players newly eligible: just Michael Taylor, who has a ton of speed (51sbs) and an improved OBP (.340) while repeating high-A this year. I know there are readers here who like Taylor a ton, so this isn’t spoken out of disrespect. I think Taylor has potential. Maybe he “made the leap” in 2013. Maybe he’s going to light up AA next season and suddenly we’re talking about him being Denard Span‘s replacement and not Brian Goodwin. However, I can’t see someone rolling the dice with him in a rule-5 situation. He’s never played above A-Ball. In today’s modern game, with 12 man bullpens and thus shortened benches, I just can’t see someone like Tayler getting carried for an entire year. I think the team may very well roll the dice and leave him exposed in December, and revisit 40-man protection in 2014.

Rule-5 holdovers from before of Note

Last year’s selections Erik Komatsu and Danny Rosenbaum: Komatsu has been hurt all year, Rosenbaum was decent but not over-powering in AAA. Neither guy seems worth protecting since they already were selected and failed to stick. But, they’re both AAA-level talents who could be someone’s bench player/swing man so they may get plucked again if not protected.

Justin Bloxom and Sean Nicol are both college-aged 2009 draftees with run-of-the-mill numbers in AA; they’ll play out the string until they get pushed out at this rate.

Patrick Lehman ended the season on the DL, making one think he’s not likely to get drafted. Well that and his numbers were not good.

Matt Swynenberg has looked better in AA than he did in high-A; has he done enough to garner some interest from another team?

Destin Hood: our 2nd round pick in 2008 just seems to be spinning his wheels; his batting average has dropped as he’s repeated a level. He’s officially in bust status.

Adrian Nieto has earned a placement in the Arizona Fall League and was Rule-5 Eligible last year, but was not drafted. He’s yet to rise above high-A and seems a long shot to be taken (though, the Nats did pretty well plucking one Jesus Flores out of the Mets high-A team one year).

So, who’s getting protected? As of the time of this writing, the Nats roster sits at 39 of 40 (again, assuming Souza is really there), so there’s just one empty spot. But there’s at least a few guys on the fringes of the 40-man who I think could be waived and have a high likelihood of being kept (namely, Tyler Robinson and Corey Brown) if the team thought it needed room for either protectees or free agents. The back-end of this roster is getting a bit clogged.

Depending on how many spots the team keeps open, in order I’d protect Solis, Barrett, Tayler, Grace, and Holland. For me, only Solis is a lock. The rest (for reasons described above) may be calculated omissions.

Lucas Giolito still leads the line of the Nats 2012 draft class. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

I recently did a John Sickels style review of all our 2013 draft picks. And I thought it’d be fun to do the same for our 2012 draft class one year in (see here for the 2012 version of the post). Lets check in to see how these guys are doing in their 2nd pro seasons.

As always; the Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the two best Nats prospect resources out there. Thanks SpringfieldFan for doing all that you do. Stats are pulled from milb.com and fangraphs.com and are current as of the end of the regular minor league seasons.

Finally, at the end of each writeup i’ll put in a color coded trending line (my own opinion) for the player: Green for Trending Up, Blue for Trending steady, red for Trending Down.

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 2-1, 1.94 ERA with 39/14 k/bb in 36 2/3 innings, 28 hits mostly in the GCL. All Nats prospect fans should know of Giolito’s status these days; he has come back from surgery, pitched effectively in the rookie league and was lights out in 3 starts in short-A (one run conceded in 14 innings). Per comments and scouting reports his velocity is back, he seems healthy, and he could be just a season away from being breathlessly talked about as one of the best prospects in the game. Should feature in full-season ball (likely starting in low-A with an eye for finishing in high-A) in 2014. Trending Up.

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: .294/.380/.405 with 3 homers, 68 walks, 65 Ks in 521 ABs at Hagerstown. Also was 30 for 36 on the basepaths. Those are solid full season numbers. I like that Renda makes a lot of contact; a K rate of just 12% on the year isn’t too bad. Renda was a young college draftee (he turned 22 in January of this year), so he isn’t necessarily “too old” for Hagerstown. He will continue to move up the food chain in 2014. Trending Up.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, Coll Jr LH starting pitcher: 10-6, 3.19 ERA with 85/54 k/bb in 104 1/3 innings, 67 hits mostly for Hagerstown. I was worried when Mooneyham couldn’t break the high-A roster, given his age and draft day pedigree. He started out strong, endured a D/L stint, then dominated towards the end of the season, forcing a promotion. In high-A? Not so great; he had three awful starts to close out the season. Mooneyham continues to “look” like a better pitcher than his numbers; he’s too wild, he doesn’t miss as many bats as you like, but he gets the job done (well, in low-A anyway). Clearly he’s going to be in the Potomac Rotation for 2014; lets see how he does. But i’m beginning to question his true “ceiling” in this organization; is he going to top out like a Danny Rosenbaum, a mediocre AAA starter? Trending Steady.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller Coll Sr Corner OF: .255/.317/.457 with 20 homers, 41 walks, 164 strikeouts in 505 at bats splite between Hagerstown and Potomac. His statline seemed to feature as a power hitting corner outfielder in Hagerstown: 18 homers in 103 games, a homer every 22 at-bats or so. But then in Potomac he’s hit .300 with a .350 OBP and just two homers in 110 at-bats. It could be a case of being slightly old for low-A: he turns 24 in a month’s time. Either way, he really needs to cut down on the K’s; 164/505 equates with nearly a 33% strike-out rate. That’s going to catch up to him unless he starts hitting 40 homers instead of 20. Otherwise, he’s done nothing to jeopardize his continued rise up the system for 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: 6 at-bats in 4 games for the GCL Nats in late August; a lost season for Kieboom due to Tommy John surgery undergone in early 2013. Since he’s not a pitcher, he returned to the field in less than a year’s time. But he’s lost a year of development and now will compete with 2012 draftee catchers such as Geoff Parrott and rising DSL grads like Pedro Severino for playing time in the full-season A-ball teams in 2014. Trending Down.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, HS OF/CF: .248/.313/.343 with 0 homers, 11 walks, 48 Ks in 137 at-bats while repeating the GCL in 2013. Jennings struggled in his rookie league pro debut in 2012 and repeated the level, improving his OPS nearly 200 points. He has improve upon a horrible strikeout rate but still is striking out 35% of the time. That’s really not a good sign for the leadoff/CF guy he seems to project as right now; he needs to show a much higher OBP, put more balls in play, and do more on the basepaths (12 SBs in 44 games). I think he gets moved up for 2014, but may really struggle in full-season ball. Trending down.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: 0-5 with 27 saves, 3.00 ERA with 64/14 K/BB in 51 IP, 45 hits split between Hagerstown and Potomac. Benincasa has settled into a closer role, getting 10 saves for Hagerstown to open the season before earning a promotion to Potomac about halfway through the season and continuing as their closer. His K/BB rate stayed high even with the promotion, though his ERA and hits/9 crept up a bit. He seems set to move up to Harrisburg and could compete with Richie Mirowski for the AA closer role in 2014. Trending up.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: .248/.303/.326 with 4 homers, 11 walks, 40 Ks in 107 at-bats in low-A Hagerstown. Wow; 107 strikeouts in 432 at-bats; 25%. You just can’t have a 25% strikeout rate for a weak hitting, no power middle infielder. These numbers were in line with his short-season numbers too. He’s a college junior draftee from a very good baseball school (U of Miami) in low-A who looks like a draft bust right now. Trending down.

Round 9:(294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-5 with 8 saves, 4.66 ERA with 49/16 K/BB in 56 IP, 64 hits split between Hagerstown and Potomac. Self started in Potomac, had a 6.29 ERA in 23 apperances and was demoted mid-season to Hagerstown. In low-A he had more respectable numbers but nothing eye-popping. He was a low-bonus college senior draftee who’s struggling to make a mark in a league where he’s one of the older guys out there. I could see him being a post-2014 spring training cut. Trending down.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: .282/.364/.347 with 1 homer, 24 walks, 20 Ks in 170 at-bats mostly in low-A Hagerstown. He missed a month mid-season, then was mostly the backup to Adrian Nieto in Hagerstown. Unfortunately, a low-bonus college senior draftee who’s backing up guys in low-A probably isn’t long for the organization. He may be a victim of the catcher numbers game at some point (though, that being said, the team only drafted one catcher in 2013; maybe he sticks around for a while). Trending down.

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: 7-4, 4.50 ERA with 68/34 K/BB in 106 IP, 107 hits split between Hagerstown and Potomac. An odd season for Rauh; he struggled in middle relief in low-A (posting a 5.21 ERA), then was promoted to Potomac, where he was installed as a starter. He had 12 mostly mediocre starts (4.22 ERA) before being moved to the bullpen the last week of the season when Brett Mooneyham was promoted up. Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? More time in the system is apparently needed; i’m guessing he begins in the bullpen in high-A next year. Trending Steady.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, Coll Sr 1B: .296/.441/.407 with 0 homers, 7 walks, 7 Ks in 27 at-bats in low-A Hagerstown. Lopez went on the 7-day DL in mid-April after just 9 games and never came off. I cannot find word of his injury. But with newly drafted James Yezzo in the mix as a 1B-only draftee, Lopez has his work cut out for himself to retain his standing in the organization. Especially considering that he was a College senior sign who is positionally limited and hasn’t shown much in the way of power at the professional level. Trending down.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, Coll Jr LH reliever: 2-0, 2.96 ERA with 13/12 K/BB in 24 1/3 IP split between the two short season teams. Waterman performed poorly in Short-A last year, did not make a full-season team out of camp, then got hammered again in his early outings for Auburn this year before getting demoted to rookie ball. He pitched better in the GCL, eventually earning a call-back to Auburn but has not appeared since 8/31/13. He’s still relatively young (does not turn 23 until November) and he’s a big tall lefty, but he’s putting too many guys on base and not getting enough swing and miss stuff to stick as a situational arm. He may get one more spring training but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him cut loose if he doesn’t make a full-season team in 2014. Trending down.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, Juco-2 corner OF: .222/.278/.403 with 3 homers, 6 walks, 40 Ks in 72 at-bats split between the two short season teams. I’ll repeat this metric: 40 Ks in 72 at-bats. He struggled in Auburn and then got hurt in late July, missing 3 weeks. He finished the season in Rookie ball, probably a combination rehab assignment/demotion. He does feature some pop; his isolated slugging of .441 in Auburn shows some promise. But that’s a lot of strikeouts. He’s still very young (he turned 22 just this week) so he will continue in the system. Trending down.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: 4-3, 3.48 ERA with 55/34 K/BB in 88 IP for Hagerstown. Pena started the season in the Hagerstown rotation, where he stayed mostly until the end of May. He had a 4.70 ERA as a starter on the season; not good enough given the arms matriculating upwards. From there he worked the bullpen, where in the same number of innings his Ks were up, his walks down and his hits allowed down. It seems to me he’s bullpen-bound from here. Trending Steady.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher: 13-4, 2.51 ERA with 101/28 in 147 IP for Hagerstown and Potomac. Schwartz started the year in the Hagerstown rotation and ended it in Potomac, getting the ball for their 2nd playoff game. After striking out 21 guys in his first 14 low-A innings, he was quickly promoted up and threw 132 additional innings in Potomac. His ERA was low upon promotion, he fared equally well against lefties and righties. I’d like to see more K’s, but it is hard to argue with the results. He had to be in the “player of the year” discussions for the organization. So far looking like a great find this late in the draft from a small school. Trending up.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, Coll Sr RH reliever: 5-0, 4.06 era with 81/52 K/BB in 58 IP for Hagerstown and Potomac. He got a quick bump up from Hagerstown after just 9 apperances and spent the bulk of the season in Potomac’s bullpen providing longer relief stints every few days. He hit the D/L in mid August and never came back off of it. This beanpole (6’5″ 175lbs) clearly has some strikeout type stuff (53 Ks in his 44 high-A innings) but he is also wild as hell (44 walks in 44 innings to go with 8 wild pitches and 5 HBPs in high-A). It sounds like someone needs to coach Nuke LaLoosh up here. Trending Steady.

Round 19: (594) Bryan Lippincott, Coll Sr 1B: .273/.346/.434 with 7 homers, 25 walks, 39 Ks in 198 at-bats split between Auburn and Hagerstown. A small-college senior signee, Lippincott spent all of 2012 in the GCL (where he clearly was “old for the level.”). In 2013, he waited for short-season to start, then slugged .464 in 44 games for Auburn before getting the call-up to Hagerstown to play for the team during the playoffs. He struggled in 10 playoff games (understandible; they’re the best teams in the league) but otherwise had a nice season. He’s seemingly set to compete for perhaps the 1B or DH in High-A for 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, Coll SR SS/3B: Released May 2013; he was a senior sign who played last season mostly in the GCL, save for a 2 week stretch where he went 1-32 in Short-A. Apparently he didn’t make a team out of spring training and was released just before Short seasons started.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, Coll Sr C: .200/.241/.238 with 0 homers, 2 walks, 12 Ks in 105 at-bats for Auburn. Chubb was a part-time catcher, splitting time with others in Auburn, and followed up his generally poor 2012 GCL numbers with even worse numbers in 2013. He had just two walks in 100+ plate appearances? With no power to show for it? Chubb may not be long for the organization, despite the positional scarcity. Trending Down.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, Coll Sr LH Starter/Reliever: 0-6, 4.29 ERA with 30/14 in 42 1/3 innings, 56 hits for Auburn. Selsor was drafted with 2-way capabilities but has only pitched for the Nats. He started the season in Auburn’s rotation, got demoted to the bullpen after 6 starts, but eventually made his way back into the rotation in some sense by the time the season was over. He gave up a ton of baserunners, but his babip was high. Despite a 4.29 ERA his FIP for the year was just 3.15. So he pitched better than his stats look. Trending Steady.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, Coll SR RH pitcher: 0-2, 14.54 ERA with 4/2 K/BB in 4 1/3 innings, 8 hits for Auburn. Dicharry pitched very poorly in his first three Auburn appearances and then was released 7/1/13. Without any knowledge of how well he recovered from the arm issues he had in college, this seems like an incredibly quick release considering how well he pitched (even if he was overaged) last year in the GCL.

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending Stanford, where in 2013 he appeared in exactly one game and pitched 2 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. Google research is spotty, but it seems like he aggravated the same knee which he had ACL surgery on in 2012 and which ended his HS career prematurely.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending UNC, where in 2013 he hit .349/.449/.550 as a freshman starter for one of the best teams in the nation. That’s a pretty darn impressive slash line for a freshman in the ACC. Those are 1st round pick numbers.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending UCLA, where in 2013 as a mid-week starter/weekend reliever he was 4-6, 4.84 ERA with 56/31 K/BB in 70+ innings for the CWS champions. We don’t have advanced stats, but his BAA of .227 seems to indicate his ERA was incredibly unlucky. He should be a weekend starter for UCLA next season.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, Coll Sr SS/2B: .182/.265/.205 with 0 homers, 4 walks, 11 Ks in 44 low-A at bats earlier this season. Bailey was released May 2013. The jump from GCL to full-season ball proved too much for Bailey and he was cut loose as an expendible backup middle-infielder in a system full of them rising quickly up the ranks.

Round 29: (894) Leonard Hollins, Juco RH reliever: 1-4, 2.91 ERA with 36/16 in 46 1/3 innings, 48 hits mostly for Auburn. The submariner made a successful jump to short-A out of the GCL, and still has not given up a professional home-run. All we have to do now is figure out if he’s “Leonard” or if he’s “L.J.” since milb.com and Fangraphs differ in their names for him. Trending Up.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 1-5, 3.65 ERA with 47/22 K/BB in 56 2/3 innings, 54 hits for Auburn. Orlan was the leading innings-eater for Auburn in 2013 after missing the whole 2012 season following TJ surgery. Orlan kept the ball down, pitched better than his ERA shows (3.38 fip) and shows no reason not to continue up the chain and compete for rotation jobs in full season ball next year. As I said last year, he could be a great sleeper pick. Trending Up.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden Coll Sr RH reliever: 0-0, 4.61 ERA with 15/14 K/BB in 13 2/3 innings, 17 hits for GCL. 14 walks and 17 hits equates with a balloned 2.27 whip for this 23-year old in the rookie league (which means he’s likely throwing against guys 4-5 years younger than he is). It is hard to understand why he was back in the GCL after having shown he could handle Short-A last year. Either way, his control issues from last year caught up with him in 2013 and I don’t think he’ll be long for the organization. Trending Down.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, Coll Sr LH reliever: 1-3, 6.82 ERA with 32/15 K/BB in 30 1/3 innings, 43 hits. Great K/9 rates for a matchup lefty (reminder: milb.com lists him as a RHP when he’s actually a lefty). His game-logs show what a weird season he had: of the 23 earned runs he gave up in his 30 innings, 20 of them came in four awful outings, highlighted by his 8/24/13 outing: he gave up 5 hits and 5 walks in an inning and a third, resulting in 6 earned runs. These factors contributed to his FIP being just 2.77, a huge delta from his ugly ERA. I’d imagine this stat line makes it hard for higher-ups to evaluate him. Nonetheless, he should feature in a full-season bullpen in 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, Coll Sr 2B/3B: .277/.372/.367 with 2 homers, 40 walks, 66 K’s in 264 low-A at-bats (skipping 5 rehab games he did in the GCL). As with last year, good average and great OBP, but little to no pop. He missed 2 full months of the season with an injury that I cannot easily google. Otherwise he continues to profile as an undersized, speedy 2nd baseman with good OBP capabilities. He’ll move up to Potomac in 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: didn’t sign but Washington picked him in 2013. From the 2013 version of this post: Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 2-0, 2.73 ERA with 22/13 K/BB in 26 1/3 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 18 hits. He got pushed to low-A too early, settled into short-A where he probably belonged to begin with, and pitched relatively well for 20 innings. Too many walks for a relief pitcher, though, he’ll have to work on that. He mostly worked in 2 inning stints and never got any looks at starting. Trending steady.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: didn’t sign. Attending Division III Denison, where he does not appear to be playing baseball at all. Seems to have quit the sport. Was th is a “favor draft pick” to give someone’s friend’s kid some notariety?

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: didn’t sign. Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any current stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: didn’t sign. Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker. I could not find any individual football stats for him in rudimentary googling.

Summary: our top end guys are doing well and we may have some finds in the later rounds. On the downside, most of the rest of the first round picks are struggling. Such is the nature of the new draft classes; picks 7-10 are more like 25th rounders while picks 11-15 are more like 6th-10.