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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 17, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -17 July: New reports from SC, PA, MI, NY, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Chesterfield County, SC; Juaniata County, PA; Bay County, MI; Niagara County, NY; and Wood County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -14 July: New reports from MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Gratiot and Lenawee Counties, MI; Pickens County, AL; and Northumberland County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Summertime showers South and East. The weekend front is washing out in the mid-Atlantic / Southeast. A second front that moved into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley late Sunday will wash out by midweek. Partly cloudy skies are expected in most areas. Daily showers, will be more prevalent on Monday compared to Tuesday, as the influence of the fronts decreases. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some cooler readings far North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in parts of the South and the Northeast (Monday). Transport events move fairly slowly Monday and Tuesday, tracking close to the sources or to the northeast. Favorable conditions will be found both days in the lower Southeast and near the south Atlantic coast, and on Monday in part of the Northeast. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions occur toward the interior Southeast, and in sections of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central NY, central and northeast PA, the coastal plains of the Carolinas, southern GA, southern AL, and FL. Moderate Risk in deep south and east-central TX, southern MS, central AL, central GA, central and western SC, south-central and western NC, northern NJ, and western and eastern NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in Long Island, western CT and MA, southern VT, southern NJ, southeast PA, central and eastern MD, DE, central and eastern VA, and northern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, southern GA, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk in northeast LA, southern and eastern MS, central sections of AL and GA, central and western SC, NC except the southeast, and extreme southern VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and east-central TX, NJ, central and eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 14, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -14 July: New reports from MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Gratiot and Lenawee Counties, MI; Pickens County, AL; and Northumberland County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -12 July: New reports from NC, PA, and MS. CDM has been confirmed in Nash County, NC; Mifflin and Blair Counties, PA; and Hinds County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled weather. The somewhat stationary front over the northern areas moves south and east as a cold front this weekend. The cloudiest and rainiest weather shifts from the more northern sections on Friday to the central and southern sections on Saturday and Sunday. Drier weather will occur over the North behind the front, although a second front will produce some scattered showers on one day or another. Highs in the 80s and 90s, some 70s North. Lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 50s North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely across the South and in part of the Northeast. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread follow along with the front and occur daily, to lesser or greater extent, over the southern U.S.. Transport events for each of the next several days track near the sources and/or to the east and/or northeast.

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, AL, the FL panhandle, western GA, western NC, and northern SC. Moderate Risk near the southeast TX source, and in southern and west-central FL, central and eastern GA, SC except for the north, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 12, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -12 July: New reports from NC, PA, and MS. CDM has been confirmed in Nash County, NC; Mifflin and Blair Counties, PA; and Hinds County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -10 July: First reports from VA. New reports from OH, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie and Suffolk Counties, VA; Huron County, OH; McDowell County, NC; and Darlington County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather North; varied weather Central and South. A wavy front is draped over the northern areas. Rain and showers will occur near the front while the western side of the boundary slowly sags to the south. Hot and humid air resides in the central and southern U.S.. Some areas will be dry; others will have isolated to scattered showers. Hot south of the front with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Cooler readings will occur north of the front.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in the lower Lakes, Northeast, and the South. Transport events, most of which move near-source, east, or northeast, encounter a variety of conditions through midweek. The more favorable weather and highest risks will be found in parts of the Southeast and parts of the Northeast (near the front).

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 10, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -10 July: First reports from VA. New reports from OH, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie and Suffolk Counties, VA; Huron County, OH; McDowell County, NC; and Darlington County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -7 July: First report from NY. New reports from AL, NJ, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Erie County, NY; Houston, Macon, and Lee Counties, AL; Warren County, NJ; and Buncombe and Carteret County, NC. The report from Allen County, KY has been removed. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Scattered to numerous showers many areas. High pressure is sprawled over eastern North America early this week, delivering copious amounts of warm, humid air. A cold front will generate some rain in the northern areas. Scattered to numerous showers will occur daily in the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Portions of the mid-Atlantic and mid-South regions will be dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and lower Lakes / Northeast. Mixed to favorable conditions for epidemic spread surround most of Monday's and Tuesday's transport events. Most events track to the northeast on Monday, and to the east (northern sources) and northeast (other sources) on Tuesday.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 7, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -7 July: First report from NY. New reports from AL, NJ, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Erie County, NY; Houston, Macon, and Lee Counties, AL; Warren County, NJ; and Buncombe and Carteret County, NC. The report from Allen County, KY has been removed. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -5 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Cumberland County, NJ; Columbia County, PA; and Clarendon County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

A fairly active summer pattern continues. Scattered PM showers and storms will impact many areas of eastern North America, aided by a humid environment and a series of fronts. Some places will be dry. Mostly northern sections will see more drying late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves in after the second front and before the third one arrives. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and parts of the North. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread occur during the northern transport events on Friday (many areas with High Risk) and across the southern U.S. each day (mixed conditions Friday and Saturday, favorable weather on Sunday). Transport events, in most cases, track near the sources and to the east to ENE.

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, the southern half of GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk in southwest MS, northeast SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY and part of east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.