MacDonald vs. Ellenberger

Welterweights

The Matchup: MacDonald is one of the most
interesting characters in the welterweight division, an intriguing
blend of athleticism and awkwardness who is as capable of the
jaw-dropping performance in the cage as he is the cringe-worthy
interview outside of it.

While MacDonald’s personality might be difficult for the average
fan to relate to, most anyone can appreciate his versatile and
violent skill set. Since suffering a heartbreaking loss to Carlos
Condit at UFC 115 when he was 20 years old, “Ares” has reeled
off four straight victories in the Octagon. His triumph over
B.J. Penn
at UFC on Fox 5 was so lopsided that he drew the ire of some fans
for taunting the former champion instead of finishing the bout in
the final frame. Still, MacDonald’s dominance against respected
veterans such as Penn, Mike Pyle and
Nate
Diaz demonstrate why the young welterweight has been tabbed as
the heir apparent to teammate Georges St.
Pierre.

Ellenberger was nearing a title shot until a loss to Martin
Kampmann at “The Ultimate Fighter 15” Finale in 2012 slowed his
charge. The
Reign MMA representative has rebounded to post wins over
Jay
Hieron and Nate
Marquardt in his last two outings. The 28-year-old “Juggernaut”
possesses formidable knockout power, but that has been counteracted
by his tendency to fade against opponents who can survive his
initial onslaught.

When MacDonald is doing his best GSP impersonation, he can be
overwhelming with positional advancements and heavy
ground-and-pound from top position. However, Ellenberger is a
physical fighter who often uses a strong wrestling base to keep
fights standing. With MacDonald likely to find it difficult to
bully Ellenberger, he will have to resort to using a well-rounded
kickboxing arsenal. The Canadian was proficient in landing
combinations against Penn, mixing his strikes to the head, body and
legs. A versatile striker, “Ares” also was effective delivering
standing elbows.

Ellenberger is more basic, relying on his solid jab and counter
left hook. He will look to press the action early in hopes of the
finish, so MacDonald must use his three-and-a-half inch reach
advantage and timely kicks to control the distance in the opening
frame.

If MacDonald avoids Ellenberger’s heavy hands, more openings should
present themselves in rounds two and three. While Ellenberger
demonstrated a more measured approach in his triumph over Hieron,
he needs to prove that he can be consistently strong in the latter
portion of a fight.

The Pick: If MacDonald continues to progress as
one expects a young fighter would, he should have the necessary
tools to capture the most significant triumph of his career. Making
it through round one -- when Ellenberger is most dangerous -- will
be crucial. Look for MacDonald to begin conservatively and then
pick up the pace to earn a late stoppage or decision victory.