June revenue forecast shows tax kicker possibility

Oregon revenue growth is on track to trigger tax kickers, according to the June forecast by the state’s Office of Economic Analysis.

State economists presented the latest projections Wednesday to the Senate Interim Finance and Revenue Committee.

Under Oregon’s kicker law, if state revenue exceeds the close of session budget forecast by more than 2 percent, the surplus goes back to taxpayers. Net general fund and lottery resources are $1.1 billion ahead of the 2017 close of session forecast, which would produce a $555.3 million personal kicker and a $196.7 million corporate kicker dedicated to K-12 education, according to the Legislative Revenue Office summary.

Jobs, income and gross domestic product are improving and there is little chance of a recession, Oregon state economist Mark McMullen told legislators. Housing affordability, however, threatens to be a drag on growth, he said.

The Oregon revenue forecast, issued four times a year, is the basis for state budgeting. The next forecast will be released Aug. 29.