2,000 Novato votes remain uncounted in 'quite close' supervisor race

Elections aren't over until every vote is tallied, and because about 2,000 votes remain uncounted in Novato, there's a slight chance the tables could turn on Supervisor Judy Arnold.

That's because the veteran supervisor found herself in what some regarded as a surprisingly close race Tuesday, polling 4,226 votes — just 140 more than realty agent Toni Shroyer, a political newcomer.

Uncounted Novato area ballots were being screened from thousands of countywide ballots by elections workers Wednesday and will be counted by 5 p.m. Friday. They include roughly 1,700 vote-by-mail ballots delivered on Election Day, and about 200 "walk-in votes" cast by Novato area voters who went to the polls.

Shroyer and Arnold could not be reached for comment Wednesday.

"The Shroyer campaign will not be reflecting until the election is certified," a Shroyer spokeswoman said.

David McLaughlin of Novato noted the vote tally was "a wake-up call for Judy."

Registrar of Voters Elaine Ginnold said that while a scenario in which Shroyer picks up enough votes to beat Arnold is unlikely, anything is possible.

"You never can tell for sure," said the 73-year-old Ginnold, who retires this July after 25 years in the election business in Marin and Alameda. "It's really quite close and you really can't tell until the last ballot is counted."

Ginnold said her best guess is that the election result won't change because Arnold maintained a slim lead as the count progressed on election night. The race results didn't flip flop during the night and so I don't expect them to flip flop now," she said.

But Dan Mullen of Novato, who has worked the political campaign business for 15 years, noted that Arnold's initial slender lead of several hundred votes tightened during the night, a trend that gives the Shroyer camp a ray of hope. "I was surprised by how well Toni did," Mullen said.

Shroyer's pointed criticism of big spending, "slush" funding and a consultant culture at the Civic Center, along with her embrace of law enforcement programs, resonated across Novato, stunning many. Arnold called the results "bizarre" on election night, noting she expected to do much better — and that many thought the San Rafael supervisorial race would be the tightest contest.

Mullen, campaign manager for Supervisor Susan Adams, noted the county board voting results indicate a "sizable portion" of the community want to see change at the Board of Supervisors. Supervisor Adams was ousted when her challenger, San Rafael City Councilman Damon Connolly, posted a 1,704-ballot blowout lead, winning nearly 59 percent of the vote.

Mullen said "hit piece" mailers by Connolly played a key role in his victory. Connolly portrayed the frugal Adams as a big spender, and as a subsidized housing advocate whose policies would fill schools with children but no tax funding, throwing kids "under the bus." Mullen thought Adams' mailer indicating Connolly was beholden to developers, depicting an image of the councilman stuffing cash into his pocket, was fair political comment.

Assemblyman Marc Levine, himself a big winner on Tuesday, called the supervisorial races "spirited campaigns that galvanized the community," but declined to speculate about why voters balloted as they did. "Clearly the voters are engaged in local civic affairs, and that is very good ... but the results could not have been predicted," Levine said.

Supervisor Katie Rice said Adams deserved a better outcome. "As well as being extremely intelligent and hard-working, Susan has served with a lot of heart, soul, and humor, and is extremely dedicated to her community," Rice said. "Novato has been extremely well represented by Judy Arnold. The community could not do better."

Rice added she was disappointed in the tone of the campaigns, and low voter turnout. "We all need to be asking ourselves, what can we be doing to get more folks actively involved, and caring, about local governance and government," Rice said. County turnout totaled about 29 percent.

Supervisor Steve Kinsey had a politic take on the results, saying, "Voters did what they were supposed to do, consider the choices and decide." He added he looked forward to working with Connolly, and thanked Adams "for her dedication to her district's needs."

Overall, the results of the election "reflect a community that wants the best for itself," he said. "Schools, libraries, even a permanent farmers market won our support," Kinsey noted. "Our job as elected policy leaders is to make those commitments successful."