The history of grand final rematches suggests the Fremantle Dockers will beat Hawthorn tonight

EXACTLY one week ago, the reigning NRL premiers were beaten in a rematch of last year’s grand final.

If history is any sort of guide, the same thing should happen to Hawthorn in the AFL tonight.

As you may recall, the Hawks defeated Fremantle by 15 points in last season’s decider. It was a proud but painful afternoon for Dockers fans, who were watching their club appear in its first grand final, but missed out on celebrating its first flag.

The Swans had won a pulsating decider in 2012, pipping Hawthorn by 10 points. But they just couldn’t contain the Hawks’ rampant attack during the first half of their rematch, as the beaten finalists kicked the first five goals of the match. It was never a contest.

“Ugh, you all shut your eyes. We’ll have to pose for the photo again.”Source:Getty Images

This is the anomaly. Reigning champions Collingwood replicated their victory over St Kilda in the grand final replay the previous season, finishing just one point away from the same scoreline. Of course, the two teams had fought their way to a tie in the original 2010 grand final.

Collingwood leapt higher than St Kilda again in 2011.Source:News Limited

Geelong led at half-time, but the Saints held their opponents goal-less for the rest of the match. Youngster Jack Steven kicked the first three goals of the third quarter, hauling the previous season’s runners-up back into it, and St Kilda never looked like losing after that.

We love a high-scoring game, particularly when it’s between two excellent teams. Geelong deserved to win this one, but the Hawks were much less wasteful in front of goal, and came close to repeating their equally high-scoring win in the 2008 grand final. Not close enough, mind you.