CFTC Chairman Says We're Likely to See ETH Futures in 2020

CFTC chairman Heath Tarbert says it’s likely we will see ETH-based futures contracts being launched on a US exchange in the next 6-12 months, according to a CoinDesk report. Tarbert made the comments while appearing the DC Fintech Week conference in Washington D.C.

Earlier in October, Tarbert said he believes ETH is a commodity and not a security. If this stance is widely adopted in the United States, we could see similar regulations for ETH trading as for BTC, which is viewed as a commodity by all the relevant authorities.

Tarbert said that exchanges might be encouraged by the improved regulatory clarity surrounding ETH:

“The volume to which it’ll trade, no idea, that’s where the markets decide, but my guess is now that we’ve provided at least … a little bit more clarity on [ether’s eligibility for futures contracts], my guess is market participants will consider that.”

Which regulated US exchange will be the first to make a push for ETH futures? The first name that comes to mind is CME, which already has a BTC futures market with substantial liquidity. However, a CME spokesperson told CoinDesk that the exchange is not currently planning to add any additional cryptocurrency-based futures contracts, and is instead focusing on launching Bitcoin options.

In December of 2017, CME was the second US-regulated exchange to launch Bitcoin futures contracts, shortly after CBOE. CME managed to capture the vast majority of trading volume for Bitcoin futures, pushing CBOE out of the market, at least temporarily.

As far as Ethereum futures are concerned, it’s possible that a smaller player such as ErisX or SeedCX could lead the way if the CME doesn't show interest in the product.