2003 Colorado Rockies Baseball Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the Colorado Rockies. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.

The National League West Race

The Rockies never really made it into the National League West race. They did manage to remain at .500 ball until early August, when the bottom fell out.

As you'll see in some of the graphs below, the Rockies weren't really this bad; their Pythagorean projection was about five wins higher than their actual performance. This is partly because they were 17-22 in one-run games and 10-18 in two-run games. The Rockies didn't win their share of the close games.

Amazing stat: the Rockies were 2-3 in games in which they scored eleven runs.

If you roll your mouse over this graph, you'll see that the Rockies were in the exact same position as the Cubs (right on the .500 line) at the halfway point of the season. Obviously, things changed the second half of the year. For the Rockies, what changed was the offense, which scored about half a run less per game in the second half of the year vs. the first. Reminder: this graph is adjusted for ballpark effects.

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).

Coors Park makes it hard to assess this team. The Park affects batters, pitchers and fielders to a large degree. This graph attempts to adjust fielding stats for ballpark impact. As you can see, the Rockies were a pretty good fielding team, given their ballpark. I am still working on a ballpark adjustment to FIP.

Here's the strange thing: the Rockies actually had a better pitching record at home than on the road. (ERA of 5.07 vs. 5.31). Their offense maintained its outrageous home/road differential (6.4 runs/game vs. 4.0). As a result, the Rockies were 49-32 at home, and 24-56 on the road.

The Rockies' DER and FIP were both almost exactly the same on the road as at home -- this is a major finding. The Rockies pitchers gave up more home runs at Coors, but they made up for it with more strikeouts and less walks. At the same time, their fielders did a great job turning hit balls into outs at Coors.

The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.

The Rockies Day-by-Day

You can see that the August freefall was caused by a big decline in runs scored per game (adjusted for ballpark). Much of this is due to the quality of the opposition (Dodgers, Giants, Marlins (the good ones) and the Braves) and ballparks (all of the aforementioned teams, and Shea).

Other than August, the Rockies were a .500 team. Their hitting never rose much above the league average, but their pitching did perform very well at times. In late May and early June, the Rockies' pitchers had their best streak while going fourteen consecutive games against (and at) the Dodgers and Giants and finishing up with the Indians.

The pitching heros of that streak were Jason Jennings, Darren Oliver, Scott Elarton and the rookie Aaron Cook. Shawn Chacon had a very good April for the Rockies, though he eventually went down with a bad elbow. Elarton spent time in the minors and Cook self-destructed.

The Rockies' Individual Players
Todd Helton had a tremendous year. He was fourth in the league in Win Shares (remember, Win Shares are adjusted for ballpark) and his 33 shares would have been enough to lead the league many years. Preston Wilson received a lot of press with his RBIs, but his OPS away from home was only around .800, and his Win Shares probably reflect his true value to the team.

The Rockies are notable for their lack of Win Shares from their skilled defensive positions. Belliard was tenth at 2b, Uribe was 14th at shortstop and Johnson was 13th at catcher. Stynes was 12th at 3b.

Special mention should be made for Darren Oliver, who had an unlooked-for eleven Win Shares (most among Rockie pitchers). His ERA at home was 4.50 vs. 5.24 away. Weird.