Monday, October 6, 2014

Market Watch

In the advanced line the Colts were -2 point favorites. After the Colts impressive home win over the Ravens, it was reopened at -2.5. Most of the money has come in on Indy and we've seen a soft move to -3 at EVEN money. You can still grab -2.5 if you want to pay a little extra juice, and the same goes for +3 on the Texans. 79% of the bets are on the road team.

Bottom Line

Coming into the season the Texans were going to be a better team than 2013 just based on natural regression. They still had a good defense on paper, but the two variables on offense were always going to be the high risk-high reward tendencies of Ryan Fitzpatrick - and the health of Arian Foster. Through five weeks, it's played out pretty much according to script, as we've seen both sides of those coins.

The Colts have been mostly as advertised as well. Andrew Luck continues to ascend towards the upper echelon of elite QBs, while the defense remains a week-to-week mystery.

Head-to-head, this is a matchup that I want nothing to do with. The Colts offense is capable of winning games all on their own, and the same can be said about the Texans defense. On the other side, we really have no clue which Indy defense is going to show up, or which version of Fitzpatrick we'll see. Foster has a history of carving up the Colts, but he could easily leave the game with one of his many nagging injuries, too.

If I was forced to pick a side, I'd probably ride the Texans at +3. In all but one game, road teams have had a lot of trouble in these Thursday night tilts, and there is a lot on the line for these divisional rivals. Ultimately though, I'll be sitting this one out. No matter how it plays out, not much would surprise me.