Here are 10 World Bank charts on the uncertain global trade environment

YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP/Getty ImagesGlobal trade is expected to rebound after slowing in 2016 to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis.

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The global economy had a tough year in 2016. Growth slumped to 2.3%, the lowest rate since the financial crisis. Global trade stagnated and investment was weaker.

In its annual economic outlook, the World Bank forecast somewhat brighter growth prospects but said there was a stew of policy uncertainty.

The new Trump administration’s plans pose both downside and upside risks to the outlook, the international organization said. Fiscal stimulus from the new Trump administration could boost growth to 3%, the report said, but global trade may be damaged if Trump becomes more protectionist.

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Global growth outlook

The World Bank, in its annual forecast, sees growth accelerating in 2017 to a 2.7% growth rate from an anemic 2.3% rate last year. This reflects an expected recovery in emerging-market and developing economies. Commodity prices are expected to increase moderately in 2017-2019.

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Policy uncertainty spikes to record high

There is a heightened level of policy uncertainty, especially over trade, has been exacerbated by the U.S. presidential election and Brexit, the World Bank said.

The chart is a six-month moving average of the frequency of articles in domestic newspapers mentioning economic policy uncertainty.

Even without any policy action, uncertainty about Washington could set back already-weak global investment. A sustained period of policy uncertainty could reduce U.S. and emerging market growth, the World Bank said.

If uncertainty goes up for one year, it could reduce U.S. output growth by about 0.15 percentage point and emerging market growth by 0.2 percentage point and emerging market investment by 0.6 percentage point, the organization said.

A drop in investment would be most unwelcome. Investment growth has slowed sharply since 2010. It decelerated to a 3.4% growth rate in 2015, down from a 10% rate five years prior. It is expected to have declined by another half a percentage point in 2016.

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A major factor in declining trade is that the appetite for further trade liberalization has waned in major advanced economies, the World Bank said.

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Another factor dampening global trade is the “maturation” of global value chains, especially in Japan and the United States, the report said.

This has reduced the amount of trade generated by an increase in global GDP.

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Over the last few decades, U.S. trade openness has increased. The U.S. now accounts for 11% of global trade, one-tenth of global trade flows, one-fifth of remittances and one-fifth of energy demand. .

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Trade accounted for 30% of U.S. GDP in 2015. The U.S. is the largest importer and exporter of goods and services. It accounts for 14% of global goods imports.

Manufactured goods account for more than three-quarters of U.S. goods imports, with oil imports making up most of the remainder. The most prominent imported manufacturing categories are motor vehicles, data processing machines and drugs.

About 24% of manufactured imports originate from China, followed by 20% from the European Union. Mexico and Canada combined account for an additional 24% of imports.

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The sharp drop in oil prices over the past two years may have contributed to weakness in global trade.

Oil prices are expected to average $55 a barrel in 2017, up 28% from 2016 levels and well above the $30 per barrel at the beginning of last year.

The market continues to rebalance, as consumption rises while non-OPEC supply declines. U.S. shale oil production is expected to bottom this year.

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The U.S. is not the only global-trade behemoth. A policy-driven slowdown has been underway in China since 2012. This has weighed on global output growth, especially in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.

Output in China is expected to continue to slow in 2017, the World Bank said.

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The U.S. is not the only global-trade behemoth. A policy-driven slowdown has been underway in China since 2012. This has weighed on global output growth, especially in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.

Output in China is expected to continue to slow in 2017, the World Bank said.

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