Why September could be the breaking point for Trump and Republicans in Congress

Republicans in Washington will face their greatest test yet under President Trump in September. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

It could take just a dozen days this month for President Trump and his party to fracture for good.

In September, Republicans in Washington will face their greatest test yet under Trump: An overwhelming legislative agenda, under a tight deadline, with the nation's economy hanging in the balance.

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The country could be whacked by a government shutdown or a major financial crisis if Congress doesn't pass a series of time-sensitive economic bills. And even if that happens, the GOP — which controls the House and Senate — has a slim chance of tackling any of its backed-up legislative goals, such as tax reform or health care.

Donald Trump in the White House

All the while, Trump is publicly feuding with his own party and threatening to stall the entire congressional agenda to get money for his Mexico border wall.

After months of Trump's self-created crises, he and his party will now face a make-or-break test of basic governing — with little room left for failure.

American University Prof. Allan Lichtman says that Trump "has doomed all of the work that has to be done." (Handout)

"It's not going to be a good month at all," Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute in Washington, told the Daily News.

The Republicans "don't have anything to show for their time as a majority so far," he said.

"September's going to be the month that determines whether this is a completely dysfunctional majority. Until September ends, we won't know how bad this could turn out."

What's at stake

Congress has 12 days in session to focus on two essential goals: Passing government spending bills and raising the debt ceiling, both of which must be done by the end of the month.

If the spending bills fail, a government shutdown will begin. And if a deal isn't reached to raise the nation's debt limit above $19.8 trillion, America might have to default on its loans, which would ignite an unprecedented credit crisis.

Congressional Republicans are also returning from their August recess still reeling from the embarrassing fallout of their health care ambitions. After months of debates and revisions, the GOP failed to produce a successful health care bill — squandering years of promises to repeal and replace Obamacare.

The health care debacle dragged on for so long that Congress had no time to focus on other top priorities, such as tax reform and infrastructure bills.

And after Tropical Storm Harvey hit Texas, relief funding is a priority too. Trump has ordered Congress to give nearly $8 billion for Harvey relief, and the White House wants to tie that funding with debt ceiling legislation, which will likely complicate both measures.

"The agenda's in tatters," said Allan Lichtman, a political historian at American University.

Flooded cars sit alongside a roadway in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Harvey, in Port Arthur, Tex., on Saturday. Relief funding for disasters is among the priority issues Republicans must face. (Gerald Herbert/AP)

But on top of all this, Republicans face yet another impossible obstacle: Their President.

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Trouble from Trump

Trump spent the August recess going to war with his own party, and both sides could suffer for it now.

"He's been dragging down their whole party," Lichtman said.

"He has doomed all of the work that has to be done."

Trump spent weeks publicly shaming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and about a dozen other Senate Republicans, heaping all blame on them for a stalled agenda.

He has also made clear that funding for his multibillion-dollar border wall — a campaign promise with little support in Congress — is his highest priority.

Trump threatened to force a government shutdown if he doesn't get his money, even though he campaigned on a promise to make Mexico pay for it. (Mexico has made clear that it's not paying a peso for the wall.)

Meanwhile, Trump has not released any detailed proposals for tax overhaul or infrastructure spending, even though he has spoken about those goals for months.

2018 looms

If September passes with no major legislative accomplishments, Republicans will have only a few months before the beginning of an election year, which will create yet another distraction from getting bills passed.

That leaves the party only about a year to prove it can pass something of significance – or else they may pay for it at the ballot box.

"At some point, his base might say, 'Where are the deliverables?' 'What have you done for me lately?'" Lichtman said.

Lichtman, who has famously predicted the outcome of the past nine presidential races correctly, also predicted last year that the Republican-led Congress would impeach Trump if he endangered their agenda.

The next few weeks could prove to be the GOP's final straw.

"The first rule of any office holder — really the only rule — is survival," Lichtman said.