If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Bud swelling before pink is driven by root formation and soil water as well as temperature. Our current cold nights (air is very dry and holds no heat) is holding things back in the SJ. However, I've seen farmers "banking" water in the soil in anticipation of delivery cut-off.

Not to be chicken-little, but the nut farmers are in a bind --- if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.

I suspect the farmers will go light on hives because it represents a sunk cost going into a bad year. They may assume the June drop will be high and want to reduce the set to size up the remaining nuts the trees will actually support to harvest. Or they may assume that the blossoms are going to freeze or wash off, and will avoid spending money on a weather loss.

Nut prices will spike -- does that mean even more planting as speculators run the per acre return at the pricing, or does it mean other nuts are going to substituted in consumer foods and the almond demand will finally hit its supply/demand limit.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Originally Posted by JWChesnut

if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

From the NWS: "Earlier indications of a possible pattern change to a "wetter"
pattern during the latter two weeks of Jan seem to be waning as
the West Coast ridge diverts the Pacific jet well to the north...

otherwise more
unseasonably mild wx with mid 60s to mid 70s for the valley and
lower foothills and mainly 50s and 60s in the mtns...possibly
nearing some record maxes..."

We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

One of the big guys in my area shipped everything out by the end of last week. Left behind some swarms, maybe queenless, but still free bees giving a few snowbirds a surprise. I assume the hives are sitting over there now.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

california bees for california almonds- the bees looks TITS ON a RITZ whats the wory
im trying to keep up with this--Almond prices are going to stay up---demand wont decline
It will rain my man-- it comes every year-- RDY-B

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Talked to my farmer last night and he said the buds are small on the trees this year. He also said he talked to a friend of his that is a crop insurance agent
and he said he has never been employed by as many almond growers as he has this year.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Little update. The weather continues to roast us. 73 outside as I type. Locally about 50% of the bees are already in the almonds. Noticing a couple of ramifications from the heat and drought. No food out there so the bees are very hot on robbing. Secondly, since we have had no rain the ants are not pushed back into the ground are hell bent on attacking anything they can. I have never had ants on the bees in the Almonds in 30 years. They are on the sides of the boxes right now looking to find a way in. As hot as its is I can't imagine how those 1000" hive holding yards are fairing. Has to be a lot of robbing going down as the bees burn up what winter stores they have and burn themselves out looking for what is not out there. Still think the trees will be open around February 2-4 +- a few days.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Given the heat and dryness, do you expect less nectar and poor quality pollen production?
Are you anticipating having to feed more supplemental feed through the next three weeks?
And with those kinda bee pressures, how do you feed without everything getting tore up with robbing?

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Originally Posted by Ian

Given the heat and dryness, do you expect less nectar and poor quality pollen production?
Are you anticipating having to feed more supplemental feed through the next three weeks?
And with those kinda bee pressures, how do you feed without everything getting tore up with robbing?

Since the growers are watering im expecting some nectar. Almonds 2013 were a dry month with high temps had sufficient nectar. We strapped all our pallets down so other bees wont get through lids. The robbing isnt terribly bad. All good hives defend well, all dinks have been shaken. Some open barrel feeding is also helping.

Re: Time to get nervous # 2

Originally Posted by Ian

good luck guys on the upcoming pollination!!

Its not the almond pollination I'm worried about (yet) although a freeze because of the early bloom and the dryness might toss that potential food source in the can. The real issue is i have no clue where the heck are the bees gonna get breakfast, lunch, and dinner from once the almonds are finished.

It is so bad out there that I might as well ask them to go find lunch in the peace river valley mid February. That or rocket them to the back side of the moon. The build up is going to be non existent and the robbing so bad I might as well move them to Compton so they can hang with the rest of the bangers.