It won't be easy but if he wins the French and Wimby combo then I would back him to at last equal Roger I see him winning 2/3 more French Opens after this year and 1/2 more Wimbledons! US Open and AO will be tough but it's not impossible he sneaks one more hard court slam

Depends... Fed could still win the following USO (possible) or AO (highly unlikely) and reset the differential to 5 or 6 slams..... A 4 slam difference is still tough to make up, but obviously doable for a player of Nadal's calibre

I don't really see the Nadal winning any hard court slams in the near future therefore it'll be incredibly difficult for him to threaten Feds record

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Well, he just won IW which is a HC. Tho' the courts are different, that "incredibly difficult" feat are still attainable.Obviously the top 3 and the rest will have a say on that, but it still is possible

If she could VROOOOM and you nailed the stallion logo on her forehead, it would probably be close enough. I'm not condoning such activities, though. It might get you in trouble with Adult Protective Services.

It's not just Nadal's knees that must stay healthy. His body, his focus, his mind and his determination must be absolutely spot on for the next 4-5 years.
He must be able to play at his prime level past his 30s which historically has never been done in the history of this sport.
The question is, how many years does he have where his body can still handle the ferocious grinding 4-5 hour battles against younger players?
Every year, things get tougher and tougher both physically and mentally for players who get up in age.
Just about everything must go right for Nadal for many more years in order for him to threaten such a record.

It's not just Nadal's knees that must stay healthy. His body, his focus, his mind and his determination must be absolutely spot on for the next 4-5 years.
He must be able to play at his prime level past his 30s which historically has never been done in the history of this sport.
The question is, how many years does he have where his body can still handle the ferocious grinding 4-5 hour battles against younger players?
Every year, things get tougher and tougher both physically and mentally for players who get up in age.
Just about everything must go right for Nadal for many more years in order for him to threaten such a record.

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Yes, it would be difficult. But imagine it's August and Nadal has just won 2 slams convincingly. Wouldn't you start wondering if he could actually run the course? I imagine Federer would start feeling uncomfortable if that were to happen.

Well the earliest opportunity Nadal would have to equalize would be at wimbledon 2014 if he won all slams between now and then. He would probably be incapable of winning any more after 2017 and has stated anyway that Rio 2016 may be his last Olympics and thus by extension within a few years of the end of his career.... The question is is it possible for him to win 6 slams at least between now and 2017

As of now he is 6 slams away.
6 slams? That is just a year and a half right?

Thing is 6 slams is more than half what he has right now.

And IMO he is done with more than 2/3 of his career, specially because of the type of game he plays.

It is technically possible, but if i had to bet i would say it wont happen.

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This is a reasonable opinion. I can't say I would personally bet against him at this point though. He's way too dangerous and focused if he remains healthy. When he sees the goal drawing closer he won't stop.

Yes, it would be difficult. But imagine it's August and Nadal has just won 2 slams convincingly. Wouldn't you start wondering if he could actually run the course? I imagine Federer would start feeling uncomfortable if that were to happen.

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We all wondered if Federer could win 25 Slams before Nadal figured out grass and hards. We all wondered if Nadal was going to clean house again after his monumental 2010 and then Djokovic 2.0 came out of nowhere!
There's so much tennis to be played, it's not even worth discussing.
And who is to say that Nadal's own Slam record is safe? Djokovic is racking them up lately and he's not even close to stopping by the looks of it. PLUS he's younger than Nadal and far less injury prone.

But it doesn't matter whether it will be Nadal or not.
Under the current homogeneous tour surface conditions(post 2003),
next great player will reach 20+ slams, IMHO.
I would say within a decade or two maybe?

Then whole new discussions will arise on who the real open era GOAT is.

We all wondered if Federer could win 25 Slams before Nadal figured out grass and hards. We all wondered if Nadal was going to clean house again after his monumental 2010 and then Djokovic 2.0 came out of nowhere!
There's so much tennis to be played, it's not even worth discussing.
And who is to say that Nadal's own Slam record is safe? Djokovic is racking them up lately and he's not even close to stopping by the looks of it. PLUS he's younger than Nadal and far less injury prone.

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Yes, I actually agree with you. I wasn't asking if it's certain Nadal would surpass the record, or even if it is likely. I was just asking whether, if he wins the next 2, he will be a danger to Fed's record in the sense that Fed might lose sleep at night.

Nadal's record is not safe either, I agree with that. But if Nadal takes the next 2, then he would be 7 away from Djokovic, and Djokovic's chances would have become much slimmer.

This is a reasonable opinion. I can't say I would personally bet against him at this point though. He's way too dangerous and focused if he remains healthy. When he sees the goal drawing closer he won't stop.

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Nadal never stopped at any point. He always had the goal of being the best. To even win a Slam is a tremendous achievement. The thing is, he cannot stop fate. He cannot stop the inevitable. At some point, it won't be his decision when his game declines and when things are out of reach. He will be an old man in this game while younger players are looking to knock him off.
The Nadal you see today won't be around forever. So looking so far ahead is pointless. The competition is getting stronger and stronger.

Ok OP, given that Nadal wins the next two slams then theres a high probability that the record will be tied/surpassed, probably in late 2015. If however, Nadal wins neither, it means that Djokovic and Murray are flushing Fedal out (or maybe fed has managed to bag number 18) and the task becomes infinitely harder for him. If Nadal goes slamless this year he shouldnt reach the record......

Yes, I actually agree with you. I wasn't asking if it's certain Nadal would surpass the record, or even if it is likely. I was just asking whether, if he wins the next 2, he will be a danger to Fed's record in the sense that Fed might lose sleep at night.

Nadal's record is not safe either, I agree with that. But if Nadal takes the next 2, then he would be 7 away from Djokovic, and Djokovic's chances would have become much slimmer.

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Even if Nadal wins RG and Wimbledon this year, what if Djokovic wins the USO and then the AO? Then the talk naturally is back on regarding his chances of exceeding Nadal's Slam count. There's just no possible way of knowing anything. What if somebody like Kevin Anderson catches fire and takes out Nadal at Wimbledon in the 3rd round? What if Del Potro takes out Djokovic at the USO? What if Murray takes out Nadal at the AO in 2014? What if Nadal needs another 4 months off from the game to recover an ailing knee injury?
I can't look so far ahead.
The tennis must be played. Nobody is a winner of anything yet.

Ok OP, given that Nadal wins the next two slams then theres a high probability that the record will be tied/surpassed, probably in late 2015. If however, Nadal wins neither, it means that Djokovic and Murray are flushing Fedal out (or maybe fed has managed to bag number 18) and the task becomes infinitely harder for him. If Nadal goes slamless this year he shouldnt reach the record......

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I pretty much agree. I wouldn't say he would have a high probability of beating the record, but I'd say he'd have a reasonable chance.

Even if Nadal wins RG and Wimbledon this year, what if Djokovic wins the USO and then the AO? Then the talk naturally is back on regarding his chances of exceeding Nadal's Slam count. There's just no possible way of knowing anything. What if somebody like Kevin Anderson catches fire and takes out Nadal at Wimbledon in the 3rd round? What if Del Potro takes out Djokovic at the USO? What if Murray takes out Nadal at the AO in 2014? What if Nadal needs another 4 months off from the game to recover an ailing knee injury?
I can't look so far ahead.
The tennis must be played. Nobody is a winner of anything yet.

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Yes, yes... yes. But 99% of the threads here are born out of speculation / dreams. It's a plausible question which I'm asking. Too many unknowns for us to know how things will play out, but the poll is speculative in nature.

If he can win 3 more RG, He'll still need 3 more majors from WIM, AO and USO to equal it. Realistically WIM is his best chance but I don't see him winning more than 1 more Wimbledon.

If he does the channel slam again this year, that would be an incredible achievement, he'd tie Borg with 3 channel slams and his major count will be 13.

Is it plausible that he can win another 4 majors after that? Yeah, from 2014-2016 he'll still be in his 20's until 2016 RG where he'll turn 30 most likely before or just after the semi's. He'd have to win every RG from that time span though and still need one of WIM, AO and USO to equal it. Plausible, yes, likely, no. even if he does get the channel slam this year.

How cool is it that we have 3 living legends currently playing in the same era?

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It's simply amazing, man. What is incredible is how the dynamics have played out. Raise of Federer, then raise of Nadal, then raise of Djokovic, including well defined periods of domination by each one, and enough drama to shake a stick at.

Yes, yes... yes. But 99% of the threads here are born out of speculation / dreams. It's a plausible question which I'm asking. Too many unknowns for us to know how things will play out, but the poll is speculative in nature.

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Nadal's won 2 Slams between 2011 and now. Djokovic has won 5 Slams between 2011 and now. Something to think about.

If he can win 3 more RG, He'll still need 3 more majors from WIM, AO and USO to equal it. Realistically WIM is his best chance but I don't see him winning more than 1 more Wimbledon.

If he does the channel slam again this year, that would be an incredible achievement, he'd tie Borg with 3 channel slams and his major count will be 13.

Is it plausible that he can win another 4 majors after that? Yeah, from 2014-2016 he'll still be in his 20's until 2016 RG where he'll turn 30 most likely before or just after the semi's. He'd have to win every RG from that time span though and still need one of WIM, AO and USO to equal it. Plausible, yes, likely, no. even if he does get the channel slam this year.

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I know, it is a really tall order, isn't it? Who is a threat to Nadal in RG in the foreseeable future, besides Djokovic? Do you see somebody like DelPo or Gulbis stepping up, or an as-of-yet dark horse claycourter showing up?

It's simply amazing, man. What is incredible is how the dynamics have played out. Raise of Federer, then raise of Nadal, then raise of Djokovic, including well defined periods of domination by each one, and enough drama to shake a stick at.

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Yeah, I wonder who will rise next? Murray has been in the past 3 Slam finals, winning one of them.
I think if Murray figures out Nadal at Wimbledon this year, things are going to get very interesting. He was crushing Nadal at Wimbledon 2011 until he hit a routine shot out that completely caused him to mentally collapse in that 2nd set. Will be interesting to see how things play out this year.

Yeah, I wonder who will rise next? Murray has been in the past 3 Slam finals, winning one of them.
I think if Murray figures out Nadal at Wimbledon this year, things are going to get very interesting. He was crushing Nadal at Wimbledon 2011 until he hit a routine shot out that completely caused him to mentally collapse in that 2nd set. Will be interesting to see how things play out this year.

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Definitely will. If Nadal can't take Wimbledon, I'd like Murray to be the champion. That would make the Brits probably go all batshit.

I know, it is a really tall order, isn't it? Who is a threat to Nadal in RG in the foreseeable future, besides Djokovic? Do you see somebody like DelPo or Gulbis stepping up, or an as-of-yet dark horse claycourter showing up?

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Somebody always steps up. I personally didn't see Tsonga almost wiping out Djokovic at FO last year. Granted Tsonga didn't convert on those 4-5 match points but I was shocked that he played that well on his worst surface against arguably the second best clay court player in the sport.

I think we have yet to see Nadal encounter his true kryptonite, a tall, supremely fit, mentally strong aggressive player who likes topspin forehands as they fall comfortably in his strike zone and who doesnt choke when he gets in to a winning position. Its the law of nature, nadal is the anti federer, now as nadal ages we will see the anti nadal emerge

But both of them have won 1 out of the last 4 slams. The momentum seems to have subsided for Djokovic.

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True but Djokovic is also coming off the AO win. He is the last man to win a Slam out of everybody. The momentum clearly is his. If he wins Miami, his confidence is boosted again and he goes into clay season with confidence restored unless he has another grandfather who unfortunatly dies.:neutral:

Somebody always steps up. I personally didn't see Tsonga almost wiping out Djokovic at FO last year. Granted Tsonga didn't convert on those 4-5 match points but I was shocked that he played that well on his worst surface against arguably the second best clay court player in the sport.

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Tsonga is very hot and cold, not consistent at all. A temperamental player like Verdasco, but with a better attitude.

I think we have yet to see Nadal encounter his true kryptonite, a tall, supremely fit, mentally strong aggressive player who likes topspin forehands as they fall comfortably in his strike zone and who doesnt choke when he gets in to a winning position. Its the law of nature, nadal is the anti federer, now as nadal ages we will see the anti nadal emerge

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Del Potro could be that guy but he needs to be absolutely fresh. He needs to meet Nadal in a QF and be fully confident. It would also help if the clay is a little damp. He can hit through the clay.

I know, it is a really tall order, isn't it? Who is a threat to Nadal in RG in the foreseeable future, besides Djokovic? Do you see somebody like DelPo or Gulbis stepping up, or an as-of-yet dark horse claycourter showing up?

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The thing is, Novak is only 1 year younger than Nadal. Sure Rafa has more mileage, but at the same time he's had 7 months off which imo has refreshed him mentally and allowed him to recover from that extra mileage.

So far Novak has played 610 matches. Nadal, 723. So it's not like Novak will be vastly fitter and faster (provided Nadal doesn't cop another long knee injury setback). Murray I don't think has much of a chance at RG, I think Del Potro is the next threat behind Novak.

Gulbis, forget about it.

This year may be Novak's best chance, but if he doesn't take it this year, I think there will be some mental scarring if he has to face Rafa at RG again in the future. He has now lost to Nadal at RG 4 times and in those losses has only taken 1 set and that was when the court got soaked and nullified Nadal's topspin.

I think the anti Nadal will beat him regularly from the off. Delpo now has the mental baggage of losing to Nadal more times than having beaten him. Then again delpo is younger by a few years so he may get his head screwed on yet

Yes, I think it is. He'd have to keep going for a few more years, but I think that Nadal could eventually match or surpass Federer's major count even if he won say 1 of the next three.

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Thank you, borg number one. I respect you and zagor's opinion most in this forum.

Nadal is an unknown at this point (or rather his physical condition is). I hypothesize that he took the 7 months off to regenerate some of the damage he had sustained in his joints, and that he might have increased his useful life at the top of the game. If that's true, I agree that he has a good chance.

Does Borg ever give interviews these days? I'm wondering what his opinion about this would be.

The thing is, Novak is only 1 year younger than Nadal. Sure Rafa has more mileage, but at the same time he's had 7 months off which imo has refreshed him mentally and allowed him to recover from that extra mileage.

So far Novak has played 610 matches. Nadal, 723. So it's not like Novak will be vastly fitter and faster (provided Nadal doesn't cop another long knee injury setback). Murray I don't think has much of a chance at RG, I think Del Potro is the next threat behind Novak.

Gulbis, forget about it.

This year may be Novak's best chance, but if he doesn't take it this year, I think there will be some mental scarring if he has to face Rafa at RG again in the future. He has now lost to Nadal at RG 4 times and in those losses has only taken 1 set and that was when the court got soaked and nullified Nadal's topspin.

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Yes, Novak's odometer is not far from Nadal's at this point. But he has suffered none of the physical problems Nadal has had to deal with.

The 7 months are perplexing. I think it was part of a strategy for maximum recovery of his potential. He might have extended his career a couple years or more (just a hypothesis).