Areport reputedly prepared by Cuban government officials predicts the island's economy will collapse by July and warns the army may be needed to keep order, AP reports from Miami.

The Cuban American National Foundation, a Miami-based exile group which released the 10-page summary, said it was obtained from Fidel Castro's inner circle. The report shows Cuba's economy has withered to only 37 per cent of 1986-89 levels, total foreign reserves have fallen to only dollars 12.3m ( pounds 8.25m), the sugar harvest has tumbled and transportation will grind to a halt by mid-1993.

The report concludes Cuba must be ready to implement 'Emergency Phase I'. Jorge Mas Canosa, chairman of the group, said this envisages a 'stone-age economy' and military repression.