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Joe Posnanski writes about sports for a living, particularly baseball. Here, he writes about sports and also Springsteen, Hamilton, Harry Potter, iPads, infomercials, his idolization of Duane Kuiper, his family and magic. He lives in Charlotte with his wife Margo, two daughters Elizabeth and Katie, and their dog Westley. Joe is currently working on a book about Harry Houdini in today’s world.

6 Responses to How Bryce Detonates

Maddux’s 13 Madduxes are by far the most since 1988. Very little pitch count information is available prior to that. Mentioning Koufax implies a longer history but for instance Blyleven only has a pitch count for 5 of his 60 career shutouts and 2 of those are under 100 pitches so if 22% of the other 55 shutouts are under 100 pitches he would have more than Maddux.

Since the start of 2012 when Sale became a starter there are 17 pitchers with at least 50 starts of 7+ IP and 2 or fewer runs allowed. Sale with 69 such games is exactly in the middle in terms of win% (as in ignoring no decisions) at .882 (45 wins, 6 losses). Including no decisions:
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51.6% – Justin Verlander 33 wins in 64 games of 7+ IP and 0-2 Runs
58.2% – Jeff Samardzija 32 wins in 55 games
60.0% – James Shields 30 wins in 50 games
60.6% – Cole Hamels 43 wins in 71 games
64.5% – Jon Lester 40 wins in 62 games
65.0% – Felix Hernandez 52 wins in 80 games
65.2% – Chris Sale 45 wins in 69 games
66.7% – Madison Bumgarner 44 wins in 66 games
66.7% – Zack Greinke 42 wins in 63 games
68.0% – Dallas Keuchel 34 wins in 50 games
72.9% – Johnny Cueto 51 wins in 70 games
73.9% – David Price 51 wins in 69 games
74.0% – Corey Kluber 37 wins in 50 games
74.3% – Max Scherzer 55 wins in 74 games
76.7% – Clayton Kershaw 66 wins in 86 games
76.8% – Bartolo Colon 43 wins in 56 games
79.6% – Adam Wainwright 43 wins in 54 games
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Sale not all that unlucky, a 25 win projection would be something like 30 starts of 7+ IP and 0-2 Runs allowed, winning 80% of those starts and picking up one more win in his other 2 starts if he matches his career high of 32 starts set last season. The last player to win 80% of their starts (min 20 starts) in a season is Dazzy Vance in 1924. Kershaw in 2014 won 77.8% (21 wins, 27 starts), Guidry “only” won 71.4% (25 wins, 35 starts). Guidry had 16 complete games and 9 shutouts that season, Sale has 14 and 2 in his career.
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Information provided by Baseball-Reference.com Play Index

From Medium… “After 20 years of terrible baseball, you get to win two pennants and a World Series. … You take that deal right? You take it and you don’t even think twice about it.” — It’s an interesting question. But no, I sure wouldn’t take it. A WS and two pennants in 20 years… that’s average; combine with ~15 years of incompetence and it’s well below average. I don’t think many fans would take that deal, and Joe might be the only person who’d take it without thinking twice. Maybe a few fans of small-market teams like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or Minnesota. But that the typical fan would take the deal without thinking twice… I think that’s a pretty bizarre statement.

Mathematically, there’s always going to be a team somewhere working on a 29-year drought. In a realistic sense, that number is much higher. There are 11 such teams in MLB right now. Seven of them are at 40+. Six of them are at 48+. So figure that for nearly a quarter of the league, none of their fans under say, age 45, have seen a championship. If you were a fan of those teams, would you wager that your franchise wouldn’t become the next Cubs?
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I’d really like to see the Falcons win a Super Bowl, so I’d take that deal. I’ve seen the Yankees and Rangers win a title, so it’s less of a big deal.

It depends on perspective. Living in the Washington area and not being a huge hockey fan, I think a lot of true blue Capitals fans would take a period of lousy hockey just to win a Stanley Cup. Right now, anyway. The Nats might be getting to that point as well. But, of course, that’s at the time. The Blue Jays won back-to-back WS and then didn’t make the playoffs for 20 years. At the time, fans probably would have been ok with that deal, but later on, not so much.