Tracking Pupil Progress from Key Stage 1 to Key Stage 2: How Much Do the "Route" Taken and the Primary School Attended Matter?

Gray, John; Schagen, Ian; Charles, Maria

Research Papers in Education, v19 n4 p389-413 Dec 2004

The analysis considers two key questions relating to pupil progress. First, whether the "route" or pattern of "steps" a pupil takes between Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2 matters in terms of their performance in the Key Stage 2 assessments. Secondly, whether such progress is influenced by the primary school a pupil attends. The research draws on a unique data-set with data on the performance of over 3000 pupils in over 300 primary schools at Key Stage 1, Key Stage 2, and in optional tests at the end of Years 3, 4, and 5. The analysis identifies four broad patterns of pupil progress between the two key stages -- equal-sized, increasing or decreasing, and variable steps. Pupils taking the "equal-sized" route made most progress in terms of Reading, but the differences between this route and the least successful one were comparatively modest, amounting to not more than 3 months progress. In Maths, by contrast, the differences were more substantial with pupils on the "decreasing" steps route making most progress and those on the "increasing" steps route lagging increasingly behind, eventually by around half a level. The research confirmed, in line with previous studies, that the primary school attended was a substantial influence on pupil progress. Multi-level modelling suggested that some schools were boosting pupil progress by as much as half a level (roughly 1 year of nominal progress) in comparison with others. However, when schools were characterized according to the main "routes" their pupils had taken, the differences between routes were neither substantively nor statistically significant. Additionally, it was found that primary schools varied quite substantially in terms of their relative "effectiveness" from one cohort to the next and the main routes their pupils took between the two Key Stage assessments.