Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Comments

Adding a Frozen line makes no sense at this point. Adding a couple of Frozen sets to the next wave of the Princess line? Absolutely. Honestly, they should have had one in the first wave to coincide with the movie.

Yes I know Frozen merch is hot now, but the movie has been out on DVD/BR for a month or so already and the luster will begin to fade quickly as new movies come out and kids move on to the next big thing.

^ I will agree, @doubts.Both Disney/Lego, or at least one of them, made a mistake to not have out merchandise for the new movie. I really never did understand why they did not put out a basic Frozen set with the first wave. That really is the entire idea of merchandising a movie.

Where Lego misses, though, is they have yet to put any targeted line out for girls that want anything past Friends.

Well, they launched Friends in Jan 2012, then launched Princess in Jan 2014, so they have doubled the number of "girl" themes with the mini-dolls. It makes sense to expand the options slowly and strategically versus over-expanding all in one shot.I think opportunity to do a one and done Frozen theme was 6 months ago, not now, but I would expect to a set or two at some point in the Princess theme. Perhaps the next move for LEGO is to do one-and-done themes tied in with new movies, like they do on the "boy" side with PotC, LR, Hobbit, etc.

I find it a bit sad really, that they think that girls will only be into pink houses and shopping. Any toy maker makes the effort to be imaginative for boys, but girls? Give them pink and shopping and voila.

Yes I know Frozen merch is hot now, but the movie has been out on DVD/BR for a month or so already and the luster will begin to fade quickly as new movies come out and kids move on to the next big thing.

The 3D movie and the coronations at the end of the year will renew the hype. The shortages will also continue through at least this year for the hot Frozen items. Then we have the sequels / spinoffs to think about. I think a Frozen line would outsell any other theme Lego has at the moment quite easily (if they could keep it in stock that is). The question is what theme do you bump to free up shelf space? In the end whoever does the Frozen construction sets will make serious coin.

Where Lego misses, though, is they have yet to put any targeted line out for girls that want anything past Friends. Both my girls are getting a bit 'eh' on it, because they already have it. The newness factor is gone, and Lego is not bothering to replace it or add in anything that targets their demographic. They need a way to keep that new demographic they have created and get them interested in options once they are out of Friends, or once the newness of that wears off.

My daughter, who is now over 8 years of age, was hugely excited by Friends when it came out in 2012 while she was 6. She has accumulated almost all of the Friends sets since then. But, like your girls, I can see she is now more luke-warm on Friends than she used to be. She still likes them, desires the new sets, but she is now also gravitating towards the 3-1 Creator Houses and also the Creator animals.

So, we'll Lego doesn't have theme directed straight at a female audience once they are past friends, I can say that some of the Creator theme appeals to my daughter. Unfortunately, a lot of the Creator theme is aimed at boys with vehicles, fighter jets, etc, etc. But, I am glad my daughter likes the houses, as I do too. Maybe she'll move onto modulars in another 2 years :)

Where Lego misses, though, is they have yet to put any targeted line out for girls that want anything past Friends. Both my girls are getting a bit 'eh' on it, because they already have it. The newness factor is gone, and Lego is not bothering to replace it or add in anything that targets their demographic. They need a way to keep that new demographic they have created and get them interested in options once they are out of Friends, or once the newness of that wears off.

My daughter, who is now over 8 years of age, was hugely excited by Friends when it came out in 2012 while she was 6. She has accumulated almost all of the Friends sets since then. But, like your girls, I can see she is now more luke-warm on Friends than she used to be. She still likes them, desires the new sets, but she is now also gravitating towards the 3-1 Creator Houses and also the Creator animals.

So, we'll Lego doesn't have theme directed straight at a female audience once they are past friends, I can say that some of the Creator theme appeals to my daughter. Unfortunately, a lot of the Creator theme is aimed at boys with vehicles, fighter jets, etc, etc. But, I am glad my daughter likes the houses, as I do too. Maybe she'll move onto modulars in another 2 years :)

I think TLG is privvy to this idea as well....they put out two animal Creator sets at once with multiple 'cute' factors. My daughter is estatic to put together #31021-1: Furry Creatures over getting #41035-1: Heartlake Juice Bar immediately.

^^ In general, Creator does not appeal to my girls, BUT I have a girl NUTS about monkeys, and that was a must have set. The mountain cabin set (I do not recall the name) that was one I had to have. I added snow to make it a winter set.

I will say the upcoming Jungle sets breathes some new life into Friends, and all my kids including my son are excited by those, but yes, Lego really is going to need to do a bit more here, because capturing a market is one thing, but they also need to retain and build it. New Friends sets will not be enough long term.

Yes I know Frozen merch is hot now, but the movie has been out on DVD/BR for a month or so already and the luster will begin to fade quickly as new movies come out and kids move on to the next big thing.

The 3D movie and the coronations at the end of the year will renew the hype. The shortages will also continue through at least this year for the hot Frozen items. Then we have the sequels / spinoffs to think about. I think a Frozen line would outsell any other theme Lego has at the moment quite easily (if they could keep it in stock that is). The question is what theme do you bump to free up shelf space? In the end whoever does the Frozen construction sets will make serious coin.

While I agree with all this to some degree, a frozen theme would still be coming 12 months later than it should have. A secondary wave of interest is still likely to be considerably smaller than the initial wave last holiday. Certainly they would have to have this stuff in stores before Black Friday at the latest.

It's also completely against Lego's normal licensing model of theme releases coinciding with theatrical releases. Would they want to bet that frozen is the next Cars? I'm not so sure it is, nor sure that they would bet on that being the case

Seems more likely to time a theme with the sequel, and do retro sets to the first movie, like they did with IJ

Unfortunately, a lot of the Creator theme is aimed at boys with vehicles, fighter jets, etc, etc. But, I am glad my daughter likes the houses, as I do too. Maybe she'll move onto modulars in another 2 years :)

Those sets are aimed at boys that like vehicles, fighter jets, etc. not all boys. Not that there is a problem with that, since there are a wide range of sets available in creator, including animals, houses, etc. I'm glad not all creator sets are gender neutral type subjects that could be claimed to appeal to all genders, since it would be a fairly boring range then.

I don't think the breakdown between vehicles and other sets is bad at all, remembering that vehicles (and especially small vehicle sets) sell well. And a number of those vehicles are just as playable by girls as boys - my daughter has a city helicopter that she likes flying around. I'd say that Emerald Express and Sunset Speeder as just as appealing to girls as they are boys. Sure some girls are girly girls that will only play with Barbie and ponies, but others do like cars and trains. While some boys do not play with cars, preferring animals.

Unfortunately, a lot of the Creator theme is aimed at boys with vehicles, fighter jets, etc, etc. But, I am glad my daughter likes the houses, as I do too. Maybe she'll move onto modulars in another 2 years :)

Those sets are aimed at boys that like vehicles, fighter jets, etc. not all boys. Not that there is a problem with that, since there are a wide range of sets available in creator, including animals, houses, etc. I'm glad not all creator sets are gender neutral type subjects that could be claimed to appeal to all genders, since it would be a fairly boring range then.

I don't think the breakdown between vehicles and other sets is bad at all, remembering that vehicles (and especially small vehicle sets) sell well. And a number of those vehicles are just as playable by girls as boys - my daughter has a city helicopter that she likes flying around. I'd say that Emerald Express and Sunset Speeder as just as appealing to girls as they are boys. Sure some girls are girly girls that will only play with Barbie and ponies, but others do like cars and trains. While some boys do not play with cars, preferring animals.

CCC, I think you missed the main point, that for a person phasing out of Friends (which is what was being discussed), a line entirely created to capture the girl market because the main line-ups they were putting out were NOT capturing that market, that individual is not suddenly going to now gravitate towards a Creator vehicle... That there is not a solid follow-on plan in place by Lego to continue capturing that market. I do think, though, they are slowly starting to think that way, because even a year or two ago, we never would have gotten that Monkey or the Furry Animal set. It would have been an alligator or shark. This has really been the first year my kids have looked at any creator set, mainly because of those new animals, and I bought that Mountain hut almost immediately.

Yes, CCC, the vehicles are aimed at boys that like vehicles, and yes, girls can like vehicles, but (a) I do not think it would be incorrect to say that there are far more boys that like vehicles than girls and that (b) Lego is aiming those vehicles at boys, and hey if a few girls like them then great.

The entire point Draug was making, as a follow on to my point, was simply that as girls phase out of Friends choices can become more difficult, that for them Creator has been a place they have found options, but that the line really only offers a few choices that personally work for them... The house and animals.

As for the list of 2014 sets, I would par that down, since a number of those are Polys, or even very small (120-60) piece sets. There are 4 vehicles and 4 non-vehicles that would make reasonable length builds. 4 new sets does not give many options for the group of kids phasing out of Friends.

Now if one looks at the full Lego line-up of what they consider Creator now, well there are more options there, and if one looks at other lines there are some options, but I am not sure a piece meal approach like that is really going to keep that market buying.

I do think at times that @tamamahm‌ seems to overly fault LEGO for not putting out more sets/themes that appeal to her children when in reading all of her posts over time it seems clear that her and her children have very narrow and choosy interests. It hardly seems fair to fault LEGO entirely because of this. They put out a lot of variety. Is it they're fault that you dislike 90% of it when it's quite obvious that your tastes run counter to the general trends of the larger population as a whole?

I say this only as a observant realist, not as a personal attack or to be overly harsh. I also say it as someone with two girls in the LEGO age range who can relate to and agree with most of your points. I just don't expect that LEGO would or will release more sets that quite obviously cater to a minority if fans in comparison to their current offerings. But sales figures and reality are stubborn things to overcome, so I've accepted that I have to pick through the offerings to find what appeals to us and be glad that with Friends and now Princesses, the choices have increased tenfold from just a few years ago

That is great Pitfall, and there is nothing that says that girls do not like fire trucks, but yes, there are many that do not have interest there. (Even my son has no interest there. ;-) ) If there was a strong interest with girls and their fire trucks, we would not have a need of Lego Friends. As has been discussed many times on this board Lego Friends has gone after those that are not already interested in Lego and/or those that have not found the themes of interest in the Lego line because Lego does focus many of their lines on more traditional areas of boy interests. Great. They attracted a new demographic. The key now is maintaining, renewing and building that demographic, or you lose it.

I do think at times that @tamamahm‌ seems to overly fault LEGO for not putting out more sets/themes that appeal to her children when in reading all of her posts over time it seems clear that her and her children have very narrow and choosy interests. It hardly seems fair to fault LEGO entirely because of this. They put out a lot of variety. Is it they're fault that you dislike 90% of it when it's quite obvious that your tastes run counter to the general trends of the larger population as a whole?

I say this only as a observant realist, not as a personal attack or to be overly harsh. I also say it as someone with two girls in the LEGO age range who can relate to and agree with most of your points. I just don't expect that LEGO would or will release more sets that quite obviously cater to a minority if fans in comparison to their current offerings. But sales figures and reality are stubborn things to overcome, so I've accepted that I have to pick through the offerings to find what appeals to us and be glad that with Friends and now Princesses, the choices have increased tenfold from just a few years ago

Lego specifically put out Friends to resolve an issue. The Issue is that the were missing the girl demographic. They put out Friends. That is great. The reality, though, is that those girls will eventually either age out of Friends, and Without a next theme to move into, Lego will lose the group they fought hard to gain. In addition, unless Friends continually revamps itself into something new, then Friends will get "blah" and old, and kids that are interested will phase out of buying it. This second point is something we see yearly as Lego retires theme and puts out new themes.

The entire point I am making is absolutely unrelated to my kids. Do I see this happening with mine, though, yup. Do I see this happening with others? Yup. Do I think Jungle will be a Great way to revamp past the standard shops and horse themes they had started getting stuck on? Yup. Do I think Lego is still missing a big hole in their overall strategy on females. Yup.

As for whether one considers the above a personal attack or not is irrelevant, but I do not appreciate the perspective that it creates of hey,everyone, we can dismiss this individual, because she must be solely focused on her kids,so everything she says must be irrelevant.

Yet, the points I am making above are related to the question of Lego strategy for the entire female segment.

What is frustrating is really a doubles standard here at times.The cool CMF elf wasn't made in sufficient quantities to be an army builder, well how bad of Lego. Can you believe that? The female CMFs is made in quantities of 2/box, well, there goes that crazy female not happy about female minifigs. Yah, it must be because she has kids. Yes, that's it. *roll eyes*

Wow, yet another boring revamp of police and fire. I know right, how frustrating. When are we going to get something new.

Wow, yet another boring line focused on vehicles. Oh, there goes that person again complaining when so much of Lego demographic must like vehicles.

So, it is okay to be frustrated if something isn't great for an AFOL, or the lack of creativity in the City line with more police/fire. It is not okay to be frustrated if something isn't great for the female demographic, or the lack of creativity in general lines.

The one point I will agree with is that my son is NOT the norm for Lego interests. I have said that, though.

Has anyone read the letter to Lego from the little girl that has been going around the internet?

I don't fault Lego for putting out the friends and princess line, but they definitely need to put out better sets for girls and more girl minifigs. I sort of liked the Cuusoo project with the female scientists. A theme like that made of quality builds would sell well to boys even.

The Friends theme will only pull in so many girls for Lego for a certain period until they get bored with a very repetitive theme. There needs to be another theme to keep girls interested, maybe a small section of City with all girl minifigs. The main point would be to transition some girls from one very girly theme into a more Lego-like theme.

Lego would be smart to make a move similar to this. I don't know how long the large demographic of girls they are targeting will be entertained with the sets Lego is currently putting out. The audience seems very come-and-go, I think they should focus more on capturing girls that will enjoy quality construction sets based around female role models.

Here's an interesting question. Was Harry Potter more a girls theme than a boys theme? My daughter loves Harry Potter, but my nephew couldn't care less. Girls tend to read more at an early age than boys and I think while girls were reading Harry Potter, the boys were out playing in the dirt. This is just an observation and I have no statistical information.

I think it also has a lot to do with how children are raised. I come from a family of architects and engineers. Designing and building is in our blood line and maybe that's why my daughter loves Lego so much. I'm also very much a stereotypical male. I love to play sports and lift weights, I'm always fixing and building things around the house. I have tons of Lego as well and she takes to putting things together with ease.

I guess I don't see how girls age out of friends any more than how boys age out of Star Wars or ninjago or any of the other one and done themes. The boy themes and sets don't seem any "older" than the girl ones. Girls, like boys, hit their teens and age out of Lego entirely. For both genders, the "next" thing to gravitate to is Creator and Creator Expert, both of which are highly gender-neutral. If one doesn't like any of those choices, then I'm not sure what you are realistically expecting?

For better or worse LEGO is putting their girl efforts in the mini dolls. I think even if LEGO did come up with something for girls to move to after friends, it would still contain mini dolls, not minifigres

I also think it's quite likely that LEGOs research has shown that girls will generally abandon toys at an earlier age than boys. My experience has shown this to be case, and it's widely accepted that girls mature earlier than boys as well. You also have to consider that with all the success of friends, girls probably still make up a significant minority of overall sales

Saying friends is repetitive is like saying city is repetive. Of course it is when you look at it as if the same kid is getting all these sets year after year. Kids grow and move on and the next kid didn't get Olivia's house because they weren't into Lego back then so the current house is great for them. Also most kids get only a few sets, not entire themes

I hated the idea of the girl minifigure sets on Cuusoo. Still hate it, for reasons I posted way back when

I am sorry if I offended you. That wasn't my intent, nor do I want anyone to think your opinions should be dismissed. I always read what you have to write and I often find it relevant and well stated. My only point was to say that I sometimes think you have wildly unrealistic expectations. Or perhaps more like hopes

That is great Pitfall, and there is nothing that says that girls do not like fire trucks, but yes, there are many that do not have interest there. (Even my son has no interest there. ;-) ) If there was a strong interest with girls and their fire trucks, we would not have a need of Lego Friends. As has been discussed many times on this board Lego Friends has gone after those that are not already interested in Lego and/or those that have not found the themes of interest in the Lego line because Lego does focus many of their lines on more traditional areas of boy interests. Great. They attracted a new demographic. The key now is maintaining, renewing and building that demographic, or you lose it.

I have to be blunt and say I don't know what you mean by this? I think TLG did a fantastic job in creating a Friends theme. I don't see it as their responsibility to "maintain" as though it's some crop. I think it's unfair to assume everything has to go in another direction all together when this general business model has functioned just fine for decades.

Id say overall I am incredibly "middle of the road" I do and enjoy just as many manly fixing up things around the house type stuff as I do sitting and reading a book and enjoying a cup of tea. I think of gender especially when it comes to stereotypes, very little if at all.

Unfortunately I don't see where any of this is coming from and I think people need to have a larger perspective rather than one narrow thought process.

Someone asked about the Imperial Shuttle earlier. I sold mine for $420 a few months ago with some damage. This is not a great time of year to start selling in the US. I don't expect much movement from around $400 until the fall.

Unfortunately, a lot of the Creator theme is aimed at boys with vehicles, fighter jets, etc, etc. But, I am glad my daughter likes the houses, as I do too. Maybe she'll move onto modulars in another 2 years :)

Those sets are aimed at boys that like vehicles, fighter jets, etc. not all boys. Not that there is a problem with that, since there are a wide range of sets available in creator, including animals, houses, etc. I'm glad not all creator sets are gender neutral type subjects that could be claimed to appeal to all genders, since it would be a fairly boring range then.

I don't think the breakdown between vehicles and other sets is bad at all, remembering that vehicles (and especially small vehicle sets) sell well. And a number of those vehicles are just as playable by girls as boys - my daughter has a city helicopter that she likes flying around. I'd say that Emerald Express and Sunset Speeder as just as appealing to girls as they are boys. Sure some girls are girly girls that will only play with Barbie and ponies, but others do like cars and trains. While some boys do not play with cars, preferring animals.

CCC, I think you missed the main point, that for a person phasing out of Friends (which is what was being discussed), a line entirely created to capture the girl market because the main line-ups they were putting out were NOT capturing that market, that individual is not suddenly going to now gravitate towards a Creator vehicle... That there is not a solid follow-on plan in place by Lego to continue capturing that market. I do think, though, they are slowly starting to think that way, because even a year or two ago, we never would have gotten that Monkey or the Furry Animal set. It would have been an alligator or shark. This has really been the first year my kids have looked at any creator set, mainly because of those new animals, and I bought that Mountain hut almost immediately.

Yes, CCC, the vehicles are aimed at boys that like vehicles, and yes, girls can like vehicles, but (a) I do not think it would be incorrect to say that there are far more boys that like vehicles than girls and that (b) Lego is aiming those vehicles at boys, and hey if a few girls like them then great.

The entire point Draug was making, as a follow on to my point, was simply that as girls phase out of Friends choices can become more difficult, that for them Creator has been a place they have found options, but that the line really only offers a few choices that personally work for them... The house and animals.

As for the list of 2014 sets, I would par that down, since a number of those are Polys, or even very small (120-60) piece sets. There are 4 vehicles and 4 non-vehicles that would make reasonable length builds. 4 new sets does not give many options for the group of kids phasing out of Friends.

Now if one looks at the full Lego line-up of what they consider Creator now, well there are more options there, and if one looks at other lines there are some options, but I am not sure a piece meal approach like that is really going to keep that market buying.

Presumably, the issue is they used to have Harry Potter that would fit the 'slightly more grown up than friends and interest from girls' mission. Perhaps they hoped Hobbit might do ok there. Maybe they need a Hunger Games theme.

I can see hunger games working in terms of what they could do, but not sure how it fits with TLGs often inconsistent 'family friendly' guidelines. Seeing as it's about children killing each other they might not want to go for it. I know that a lot of the licenced themes have deaths in but the focus of kids killing kids might not go well..but TLGs guidelines are often ignored where they want.

That said I can't think of any other potential films that are current that would fit the bill.

Well, there will be the new wizarding world of Harry Potter spinoff TRILOGY based on the J K Rowling book Fantastic Beasts. I believe the first of which is supposed to come out in late 2015. Given the success of the HP line of lego, I cannot see them passing up this opportunity. I am sure it will be a big hit with both genders.

That and outside of Europe, passenger trains aren't as common in the USA (with the exception of between some cities in densely populated areas). It's a shame really that we don't use rail more in the US for transportation. I really enjoyed using the trains in Europe to go everywhere.

That and outside of Europe, passenger trains aren't as common in the USA (with the exception of between some cities in densely populated areas). It's a shame really that we don't use rail more in the US for transportation. I really enjoyed using the trains in Europe to go everywhere.

probably cause Detroit's Industry doesn't like trains connecing most cities/villages cause that would mean less cars sold

^Phoenix, the 13th most populous metro in the US, has no direct passenger rail service. In 1996, the route of the Sunset Limited was shifted south, because Union Pacific wanted to abandon their tracks from Phoenix to Yuma. The city shrugged and said "whatever."

I'm looking forward to the new LEGO white passenger train this summer. How long do trains usually stay in production before they are discontinued? I'm on the fence about the #10233 Horizon Express, it is soooo orange.

I predict #7939 Cargo Train will do really well since it has much better/more substantial freight cars than the coming replacement.

Trains do well. It seems that Cargo trains do better than passenger trains. Probably because there is more play value with the train cars and what they are carrying.

I think the next freight train leaves much to be desired personally. A cattle car that has one cow is just ridiculous, and they seem to want a lot of money for not a lot of action or quantity IMO. So I can see the current freight train doing well when it is gone.The only way I'll likely buy a new freight train is if it is 25% off at least. The engine is great but the rest leaves a lot to be desired.

^Phoenix, the 13th most populous metro in the US, has no direct passenger rail service. In 1996, the route of the Sunset Limited was shifted south, because Union Pacific wanted to abandon their tracks from Phoenix to Yuma. The city shrugged and said "whatever."

I'm looking forward to the new LEGO white passenger train this summer. How long do trains usually stay in production before they are discontinued? I'm on the fence about the #10233 Horizon Express, it is soooo orange.

I think the current 'city' trains have been around for about 3-4 years. I do not count the Creator expert trains in this estimation. Those can be anywhere from 1-2 years depending on how LEGO feels.

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prevereNorth of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City MemberPosts: 2,892

The dichotomy of Lego trains is very weird. They always sell well, yet Lego claimed that the more collector-oriented sets (Santa Fe, Etc) didn't sell well. I still think that an updated version of the My-Own-Train theme would play well with both kids and adults alike. Back when the MOT theme was out, Lego.com and TLG Brick and Mortar stores were both a lot let developed and the brand itself was coming out of a dark age. I wish they would take another swing at it.

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