Wednesday, January 09, 2008

NBA Offensive/Defensive Performance Rankings

Here are this week's PVOA rankings for each offense and each defense in the NBA.

PVOA counts the number of possessions per team in each NBA game and then measures every team's offensive and defensive performances by comparing those performances against their opponents defensive and offensive efficiency averages (which are: pts allowed/poss and pts scored/poss). The numbers next to each team represent that team's average number of points scored or allowed above or below their opponents efficiency averages.

Offensive PVOA Rankings

1. Phoenix Suns...................+4.56

2. Detroit Pistons................+4.42

3. Dallas Mavericks.............+3.63

4. Los Angeles Lakers...........+3.07

5. Golden State Warriors........+2.96

6. Boston Celtics.....................+2.74

7. Toronto Raptors..................+1.87

8. San Antonio Spurs...............+1.68

9. Utah Jazz............................+1.39

10. Orlando Magic.....................+0.75

11. Portland Trailblazers...........+0.71

12. Washington Bullets..............+0.18

13. New Orleans Hornets...........-0.31

14. Memphis Grizzlies................-1.01

15. Sacramento Kings................-2.40

16. Denver Nuggets...................-2.44

17. Atlanta Hawks....................-2.69

18. Charlotte Bobcats.................-2.87

19. Houston Rockets..................-3.04

20. Indiana Pacers.....................-3.11

21. Miami Heat...........................-3.92

22. Milwaukee Bucks..................-4.22

23. Cleveland Cavaliers...............-4.58

24. New Jersey Nets...................-5.07

25. New York Knicks...................-5.15

26. Chicago Bulls........................-6.03

27. Philadelphia Sixers...............-6.70

28. Seattle Supersonics................-6.93

29. Minnesota Twolves................-7.92

30. Los Angeles Clippers.............-8.84

Defensive PVOA Rankings

1. Boston Celtics......................-10.22

2. Houston Rockets..................-6.24

3. Detroit Pistons.....................-5.20

4. New Orleans Hornets..............-4.31

5. Los Angeles Lakers................-4.15

6. San Antonio Spurs...................-4.10

7. Denver Nuggets......................-3.58

8. Chicago Bulls...........................-3.56

9. Orlando Magic........................-3.28

10. Los Angeles Clippers.............-3.13

11. Philadelphia Sixers................-2.38

12. Atlanta Hawks.......................-2.34

13. Cleveland Cavaliers..............-1.92

14. Indiana Pacers.....................-1.88

15. Portland Trailblazers.............-1.67

16. Sacramento Kings..................-1.53

17. Dallas Mavericks....................-1.14

18. Washington Bullets.................-0.74

19. Toronto Raptors...................-0.53

20. Seattle Supersonics...............-0.50

21. Golden State Warriors...........-0.49

22. Utah Jazz............................-0.31

23. New Jersey Nets...................-0.13

24. Phoenix Suns..........................0.00

25. Miami Heat...........................+0.29

26. Charlotte Bobcats.................+0.90

27. Memphis Grizzlies.................+1.41

28. Minnesota Twolves................+2.57

29. Milwaukee Bucks...................+3.18

30. New York Knicks....................+4.66

Notes: History shows that the NBA champion will almost certainly come from a team that has a positive offensive PVOA, a negative defensive PVOA, and is in the top half of the Association in each category (only two teams have not met that criteria: the 1978 Washington Bullets and the 1979 Seattle Supersonics). Generally that qualifies approximately 20% of the NBA's teams (in line with the Pareto Principle, otherwise known as the 80/20 rule).

That's almost the case thus far. Five teams fit the bill right now: Boston, Detroit, San Antonio, Los Angeles, and Orlando... with Orlando falling, and Dallas, Portland, Golden State, and New Orleans looking to replace them and fill the other open spot (20% of 30 is 6). History suggests Phoenix must improve its defense to have a legitimate shot at a World Championship.