Sunday, August 19, 2012

While the ensemble model has the storm headed for the east coast one of the models has Invest 94L going directly over Jamaica (Greater Antilles) before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Via Wunderblog:

...Forecast for 94LThe latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model
predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean
temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by
Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa
to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with
development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

However, with shear
expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was
for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and
ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every
run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing,
with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

The BAMM model,
which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011,
is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this
agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a
60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am
EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing
into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. ...MORE

And from Hurricane Track:

Hurricane Gordon proves once again that high ocean heat content is not
needed to produce a significant hurricane. Top winds have made it to 110
mph which is just under major hurricane intensity. It also noteworthy
that it reached this strength well out of the deep tropics, a common
phenomenon in recent years it seems. However, cooler water temps await
and Gordon should begin to weaken before passing the southern portion of
the Azores Islands. It should then dissipate completely before having a
chance to impact Portugal…yes, Portugal....MORE