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Sunday, August 23, 2015

Power
is an aphrodisiac that few men and women are able to control, and
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has been intimate with its allure
since his early days with the KGB. Still, the West believes that
democracy, or at least their style of democracy, can be forced onto
the people of Eastern Europe. America leads this crusade not only in
Eastern Europe but just as feverishly in the Middle East, all too
often with disastrous results both in the loss of innocent lives and
that of simple dollars and cents.

The
current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is embedded as deeply in
the history of the region as it is in the lust for domination by
Russia over its surrounding neighbours. Vladimir Putin still believes
in the same maniacal aspirations of Stalin and of the great Russian
state, although unlike Stalin, he is an astute businessman with
weaponry at his disposal that Stalin could never comprehend. This is
not to say that Putin has completely abandoned the military might of
Russia's army, with its tanks and well trained troops. There have
been rumours of Russian soldiers fighting in the self-proclaimed
People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russia has denied direct military involvement and claims to only
protect Russian citizens and its border with Ukraine.

Today,
the West is faced with a stand-off against Russia over the issue of
Ukraine. Sanctions imposed by the US and its allies have had some
effect on the Russian economy, with the ruble collapsing against the
US dollar 50 to 1, though it is not all due to the sanctions, as
Russia has suffered heavily with the massive drop in oil prices.
Russia's economy heading into a recession, Putin knows how to keep
the minds of average Russians diverted from such a mess. He has
simply given the people an issue of protecting fellow Russians
against threat and persecution.

Crimea
was annexed by Russia in March of 2014 and the Ukrainian conflict
found world headlines. Putin was simply able to point out that Nikita
Khrushchev had made a grave error in 1954 when he transferred the
Crimean Oblast to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Today,
with its population being fifty percent Russian and the fact that
Russia parks its mighty Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, it was only
natural that Crimea needed to return to the arms of Mother Russia.

In
response to the annexation, the EU and the US raised the stakes with
their sanctions against some of the powerful elite around Putin.
Major oil firms Rosneft, Transneft and Gazprom Neftwere
targeted; Bank Rossiya, Gazprombank and Sberbankhave found
themselves on the EU and US blacklists, as well as some of Putin's
inner circle. Yuri Kovalchuk and Nikolai Shamalov found themselves
blacklisted, while Arkady Rotenberg, Sergei Chemezov and Vyacheslav
Volodin all face travel bans and western asset freezes.

Among
all the frenzy of threat and counter-threat regarding sanctions, it
is still questionable who is hurting more, Russia or the EU. The EU's
trade with Russia simply outweighs that of the US, and in 2012 was
worth almost 270 billion euros. Although Germany's Chancellor Angela
Merkel appears to support the Obama-led ideology of sanctions as
punishment, the German economy is facing serious problems with the
loss of business with Russia, as German exports to Russia in 2013
totaled 38 billion euros – the highest of all EU members. With
summer drawing to an end Germany has to consider the fact that more
than thirty percent of its oil and gas is imported from Russia.
Russia has retaliated with an embargo on food imports from the EU,
US, Canada, and Australia.

Vladimir
Putin is not simply an out of control thug who is trying to push some
socialist ideology down the throats of his neighbours. After the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Putin, who had been stationed
in East Germany, retired from the KGB with the rank of Colonel.
Attaching himself to Anatoly Sobchak, then Mayor of Leningrad,
Putin's political rise was nothing more than meteoric. In 1998 Putin
moved to Moscow; this time he found himself as head of management
under Boris Yeltsin's administration. Yeltsin dismissed his Prime
Minister in August 1999, promoting Putin to the position, and in
December that year Yeltsin resigned as President of Russia,
appointing Vladimir Putin as acting President. From a retired Colonel
in the KGB to President of Russia in eight years makes Putin an
astute, calculating tactician and a very cunning opponent, whose
motivations are always well disguised regardless of what is heard
publicly.

In
2010, Russia set on a new international course with the formation of
the BRICS group of prominent emerging economies, consisting of
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Now they have agreed
on the formation of the New Development Bank, whose goal is to
provide funds for infrastructure projects in member nations, and
aside from this lofty ideal, it will be able to challenge both the
IMF and World Bank with their influence on international politics.
For decades the IMF and World Bank have been able to hold a mortgage
on nations and therefore interfere with their domestic politics. The
members of the BRICS group make up forty percent of the world's
population and wield a combined economy of approximately $16
trillion. This figure will grow as each member nation launches
further with development programs and economic growth. Each of the
BRICS member nations have an equal share and voting power with no one
nation given the power of veto. In addition to international finance,
Vladimir Putin has been developing greater inroads into the EU and
their need for Russian gas.

The
Blue Stream is a major trans-Black Sea gas pipeline that carries
natural gas from Russia to Turkey; gas began to flow in February
2003.Russia proposed to build another pipeline called the
South Stream but the EU passed the Third Energy Package, which stated
Russia could not own and control pipelines on EU territory. Putin's
response was to cancel the project in December 2014 and file a
lawsuit against the EU with the World Trade Organisation.

Now
Russia has put into development a new pipeline from the Black Sea to
Turkey called the Turkish Stream. The first line of pipe is expected
to be completed by December 2016, providing gas to a relay station in
Greece and massive economic potential for that country. At the same
time, Greece has been given an invitation to join the BRICS nations
and a possible pre-payment of $10 billion on future gas production.
Such an injection of cash would allow Greece to revert back to the
drachma, dropping the euro and providing the first substantial crack
in European unity. Although Greece accepted an 86 billion euro
bailout recently, it was Putin's attempt at manipulation that should
not be taken lightly.

Putin
understands world politics and understands that time is needed to
achieve all his apparent goals. He has been able to hold on to power
in Russia for some fourteen years and is not likely ready to
relinquish it. The Russian people have supported Putin mainly because
he brought a change to their lives with a growing economy, better
jobs and better pay. Real opposition does not exist in Russia and
treatment of any dissent is swift and harsh.

Putin's
democracy puts up with public demonstrations only for the West to
see, when in reality the government of Russia acts no differently
than in Stalin's time. Alexei Navalny has been an outspoken critic of
the Putin government and its massive corruption. He had led protests
with tens of thousands marching in the streets of Moscow three years
ago. Since then, Alexei Navalny has faced charges of embezzlement and
was sentenced to house arrest. Navalny's popularity has not waned and
only finds support growing with accusations against Putin's
government that the charges were a farce only aimed to silence him.
In December 2014, Oleg Navalny, the brother of Alexei, was sentenced
to three and a half years in jail for the same embezzlement. European
officials saw this ruling as a politically motivated act to suppress
any real opposition. Alexei Navalny has openly stated that the
decision to jail his brother Oleg was simply an act of terror aimed
to silence him.

Regardless
of the opinions of European or any Western officials, Putin's Russia
will continue on its course. Domestic politics will never be affected
by the weak pressures exerted by the West. Whether it is the Navalny
brothers or Pussy Riot, dissent will be crushed in the traditional
way.

As
the West continues on its illusionary course of economic sanctions,
the death toll in Ukraine has risen well over 7000. Ceasefire
agreements do not appear to hold as both sides are willing to breach
those agreements with little or no provocation. Rebels in the Luhanskand Donetsk regions, who the West argues are armed and
supplemented by Russian troops, are claiming to be fighting for heir
to freedom from Ukrainian forces. Both of those regions have very
large populations of Russians, with Russian being both their
predominate language.

If
the premise of democracy is the right to choose one's own government
then the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Luhansk and Donetsk
should be recognised. On the other hand can the Ukrainian government
permit the splintering of their country through manipulation by
another nation? These questions are not easy to answer when outside
interference is thrown in the midst of all the rhetoric. The world,
led by US President Obama, has decided to punish Putin's Russia over
accusations of manipulation and interference. Yet it is the US who
has interfered in domestic politics of nations since the '50s with
the Bay of Pigs, and US-led coalitions have openly invaded countries
under a guise equivalent to the Crusades. Defending democracy, and
more recently, stamping out terrorism have been their catch cries and
no one has objected.

Can
anyone underestimate Vladimir Putin? The answer is a definite no. The
world as a union has seen the result of inaction before, who can
forget the British Prime Minister Chamberlain's comments after his
meeting with Adolf Hitler, and his Peace for Our Time speech?In Ukraine it is hard to deny that Russia has armed the rebels
and has provided manpower in this battle.At the same time the
West claims justification in their economic stranglehold through
sanctions, stating that it only wants Russia to remain neutral and
maybe only cheer from the sidelines.
Amongst all the posturing and accusations, the most disturbing aspect
of this situation is how willing all the players are at sacrificing
the pawns. Images of a woman in tears standing in front of her home,
demolished by bombs in a struggle she doesn't fully comprehend tell
the true story.

Since
the struggle began more than 7000 innocent lives had been lost, while
ceasefire violations continually provide obstacles to reaching a
solution. In reality the West has no control over what is going to
happen in Ukraine. Proposals to tighten sanctions only provide a
greater opportunity for bullying. Both the Luhansk and Donetsk
regions will eventually pull away from Ukraine, and if a supposed
ceasefire holds it will only be temporary.

Democracy
in Eastern Europe must find its own flavour and not be forced onto
people who had only known struggle for centuries. The US acts like an
arrogant child chastising its parents for not being 'tech-savvy,'
forgetting how much the parents really know. Ukraine has had
centuries of struggle and occupation to live through, from the
Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealththrough to roving hoards of
Tartars and even its own Cossacks. Eventually when Stalin's Russia
occupied Ukraine, instead of peace its people had to survive the
chlodomor,or the 'hunger-extermination', with estimates
ranging from 2.5 to 7.5 million killed. During World War II many
Ukrainians fought on the German side in fear of Russian occupation.Relative peace came during Khrushchev's time but now the horror
of death and uncertainty has risen again.Neither
Russia nor the West has a right to interfere in Ukraine's domestic
politics, yet it is clear both will do so. Vladimir Putin is a
dangerous individual to underestimate. He is clever and cunning; the
strong, decisive leader that average Russians want. Though it is the
people of Ukraine who are caught in the middle of this international
head-butting. It is time for them to decide the direction their
country should travel in. Sanctions have hurt the EU as much, if not
more, than they have hurt Russia, and the resolve to continue them
will crumble in the end. At the same time no one will go to war over
Ukraine, leaving only Ukrainians to decide what the answer to all of
this may be.