Campaign 2012: The Kabuki phase

The idea, according to the invitation, was for Mitt Romney to “discuss his plans for the 2012 elections” at a “regional organizational meeting” of “the Romney Leadership Team” on Wednesday at the home of a major donor in Florida.

“In addition to hearing from Governor Romney,” the invitation promised that members of his staff would deliver a “political briefing” including a discussion of “polling numbers, media appearances and other political activities.”

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A presidential campaign getting off the ground? A candidate preparing to announce another run at the White House?

Of course not! Why would you think that?

“The purpose of his remarks on 2012 was the need to turn around the United States by building on Republican gains from the 2010 midterms,” Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said when asked what his boss was up to. (See: Romney inches closer)

So it goes in the Kabuki theater phase of campaign 2012 in which none of the leading candidates will admit they’re candidates, their donor pitches and stump speeches are couched – sometimes barely – in the conditional, credulity straining denials such as Fehrnstrom’s are part of the press secretary’s vernacular, and an innocuous-sounding phrase such as “testing the waters” has far-reaching legal implications.

Because for Romney and other potential GOP candidates, deliberate obfuscation about their true ambitions is not just about being coy. It is about money and steering clear of election law violations.

They distribute relatively small amounts of money from the groups as campaign contributions to like-minded candidates. But they also use the groups to pay for travel to key early primary states, political staff, polling, and building voter- and donor files – activities that look a lot like those of someone considering, if not actually already running, a traditional presidential campaign.

The minute any of them admit publicly that they are considering running, however, they enter the legal gray zone known as “testing the waters.” At that point, they could only use cash raised within the strict limits and source restrictions stipulated by federal election law to plan their campaigns. (See: Fox News suspends Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum)

And any of those who take the next step – either by registering a so-called exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission or actually declaring their candidacy outright – would become subject to byzantine FEC rules for candidates that would require them to disclose details about their personal finances within 30 days, and to shut down or completely step away from their big-money outside groups.

This stage of the race has increasingly become about doing as much as possible to prepare for a campaign while trying to avoid triggering those FEC rules.

“They want to postpone when the limits kick in because it’s easier to raise a lot of money in bigger chucks and from a broader field of permissible contributors,” said Paul Ryan, an election law analyst for the non-partisan Campaign Legal Center, who published a white paper this month that traces the trend called “They Claim They’re Not Ducks: Federal Campaign Finance Law and Presidential Pre-Candidacy Activity.”