It's really a matter of your situation (class standing, how well you did in your 1/C summer program, etc.) and how wisely you chose. For example, if you are a PT stud, killed Leatherneck and have good recs from USMC officers at USNA and pick USMC . . . good chance. If you are nailing STEM courses and picked nuke -- good choice. Conversely, if you're a humanities major who struggled in STEM classes, and then selected nuke as a first choice . . . not wise. Ditto if you bombed Leatherneck, struggle with the PRT, and picked USMC.

Usually ~95% get their first choice and nearly everyone gets first or second. Thus, if SWO was 3rd choice and beyond, chances are you won't be a SWO. However, as CAPT MJ points out, needs of the Navy always come first.

None of us know, but if I had to guess you will get pilot or NFO. I would say since you are aero and have nuke above the others... you have as close to zero as one can get to SWO. Good luck. I know you find out in a few short weeks. Let us know how it turns out!

Sounds like you are a current Midshipman ...closest to the source of the Gouge and your are asking a group of parents and old Grads ?
I'm sure you have heard the statistics .... I heard the 'Dant a few months ago and he indicated that almost all get their 1st of 2nd choices , he gave one example of a person who dropped down to third choice (my recollection was it was some crazy scenario like a Bull major with low GPA asking for 1) Nuke Submarine and 2) Nuke SWO.)

The Service "Assignment" process is alot different than Service "selection" was back in the day. Back then it was based (almost) purely on Order of Merit, and could sometimes yield some bad results ( I had a squad leader when I was a Plebe that went Marine Corps purely so he could fly - I have always wondered if he got chewed up and spit out of TBS because the guy had ZERO military bearing). Yours is a situation where the Assignment process should work in your favor .. you've done all the right things to qualify for Aviation. Best of Luck.

I’m not a military guy but I was at a career fair at a major engineering school last month and talked with the Navy recruiters manning their booth. They were there to find takers for a program for juniors an seniors that would lead to OCS (or similar) after graduation in exchange for scholarship and stipend. They specifically were recruiting for subs - looking for ME, EE, and ChemE. FWIW

Sounds like the NUPOC program. Great program if someone is interested in the Navy and didn’t pursue ROTC. Probably more than anything the money and guaranteed job are the selling points to these students.

The scuttlebutt says that there is some sub-drafting going on this year.

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There was indeed a sub draft this year. Can't say how many got drafted but I believe it's over now....I know a couple of those that were "selected"...a bit salty at first but have come to embrace since they were informed.

Subs is usually the one that has more open spots than people who want them. Last year (class of '18) was an exception and there was no sub draft.
For '18, there was actually a SWO draft, but the people sent SWO (who didn't pick it first) mostly came from those who picked SWO NUKE as first choice.

Also for '17, USMC came up 40 people short, but USMC does not draft those who do not pick Marines 1st choice.

Also, for '17, there were 74 mids who went to SARB (service assignment review board). If you get sent to the board, you are not likely getting your first choice.
Of those 74, 40 got Subs, 19 got SWO Nuke
Of the 40 that got Subs, they came from 8 SWO, 14 Pilot, 15 USMC, 2 NFO, 1 CW
Of the 19 that got SWO Nuke, they came from 8 SWO, 7 Pilot, 4 USMC

For OP - the metrics used to rank aviation candidates are:
OOM - 50%
Aviation Points - 35%
ATSB score - 15%
It is very possible that you could be ranked very high on the list, based on these metrics, but then be found "qualified" for Subs or SWO Nuke and be sent to SARB.

For '18, there was actually a SWO draft, but the people sent SWO (who didn't pick it first) mostly came from those who picked SWO NUKE as first choice.

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That's not true. '18 was actually short SWO Nukes and Marine Pilots.

They made up the SWO Nukes mostly by taking mids who tried to select regular SWO or SWO option. They made up Marine pilots by taking mids who tried to select Marine ground and through "volunteers" they convinced to change their service selection preferences.

I’m not a military guy but I was at a career fair at a major engineering school last month and talked with the Navy recruiters manning their booth. They were there to find takers for a program for juniors an seniors that would lead to OCS (or similar) after graduation in exchange for scholarship and stipend. They specifically were recruiting for subs - looking for ME, EE, and ChemE. FWIW

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Yep, that’s a little known path. We just had a recent thread on that, and the NUPOC path has been mentioned often here on SAF.

The Navy shops for its nuclear officers, as well as other officers, at USNA and NROTC and fills out the shopping list with these other programs, recruiting directly from universities for those who had never thought about a military career. It’s how I was found for OCS in the last century... the Navy came looking for me. Those officer recruiters are looking for strong STEM backgrounds and top college performance, leadership cred, fit and healthy people, who realize, hey, I was not aware of this Navy Officer career path and benefits, sign me up!

I'm not sure why you thought that anybody on here would have a better idea than anybody at the Academy.

FWIW, they usually have a pretty hard time getting NFOs, to the point where sometimes people pick it to "protect" themselves from the sub draft. If you've got it second, I would not be surprised if AT LEAST you ended up with NFO.

I have seen some pretty low OOM people get pilot (like 800s). You've got a lot of ECA/Summer trainings for aviation and you didn't punt the ASTB, so as long as the nuclear navy doesn't come calling (Still a very real possibility), I'd be surprised if you didn't end up in Naval Aviation. Unless, of course, you've pissed a senior aviator off enough that s/he remembers your name and ensures that you don't enter their community.

They made up the SWO Nukes mostly by taking mids who tried to select regular SWO or SWO option. They made up Marine pilots by taking mids who tried to select Marine ground and through "volunteers" they convinced to change their service selection preferences.

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They never actually fully "made up" Marine Pilots for my class. You'll see this if you compare the total USMC commissions for '18 to those of previous years. They commissioned about 30 fewer Marines than normal. They got a few people by trying to switch some ground guys, and otherwise generally taking anybody that had a passing ASTB and PFT. Didn't go to Leatherneck? No problem. Got "Not recommended for Commission into the Marine Corps" at Leatherneck? Meh, we need bodies. Showed 0 interest in the Marines previously but are concerned you can't get Navy Pilot? We'll take you.

But, for all of that, they did not force one person to be a Marine that didn't really want to.

You're not going to get nuke with a 2.7. There's enough competition for people who want it and the people they're going to sub draft have much higher grades. You're likely to get pilot, HOWEVER there's a pretty serious downsizing happening in CNATRA right now, so the slots available for your class may be reduced. FOs seem to always be behind in numbers, so I'd bet money on you at least getting that. Padding your preferences with the nuke options as 3 and 4 isn't going to preclude them from giving you your 5th choice though.