ASB rural economist Nathan Penny expected prices to begin
recovering over the second half of the year.

DairyNZ's latest economic survey showed dairying was more
successful and critical to the economy ''than ever before'',
but it had become a tougher and riskier business, DairyNZ
chief executive Tim Mackle said.

New rules and regulations to farm within nutrient limits
would bring more challenges and put extra pressure on the
industry's ability to stay competitive internationally, he
said.

Despite economic and climate challenges and new environmental
requirements, farmers had increased profitability,
particularly in the past five to six years, by farming more
efficiently, Dr Mackle said.

Farmers were producing at least twice as much milk per
hectare compared with 50 years ago, the survey showed.

DairyNZ senior economist Matthew Newman said volatility of
milk prices had been a big feature since the late 1980s.

While farmers had made farm system changes to cope with that,
farm affordability had not changed much. However, there was
now more diversity in the way farms were run.

Farmers were operating with higher levels of debt, with
interest payment costs that had doubled in the past 10 years
despite the record low interest rates.

That was an area of concern as it meant an additional 60c-70c
kg/ms in revenue was required to meet the extra interest
payments, Mr Newman said.

Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface did not think the
divergence between the currency and commodity prices could
persist indefinitely.

However, the continued strengthening New Zealand dollar had
led the bank to shade down its payout forecast for the
current season from a milk price of $8.65 to $8.50. For now,
it was sticking with its $7.10 forecast for the 2014-15
season, she said.

ASB has revised down its 2015 season farmgate milk price
forecast from $7.80 to $7.