Andre Drummond

Baseline 2012 Draft + Roster Breakdown – Part III

We’ve projected how next season’s Bobcats roster could look if they draft Thomas Robinson or Bradley Beal. Next, we’ll take a peek at how things could shape up should Higgins, Cho and company choose a riskier path.

Grab a Lottery Ticket

This time last year the 2012 NBA Draft was deemed the best draft class since 2003—a crazy deep draft featuring LeBron, Melo, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh. We’re less than a week out from selection day and that doesn’t appear to be the case. Anthony Davis may end up having a similar impact to those four players but after him there isn’t another surefire superstar. Instead, the Cats will have their choice of five equally-warted but promising players.

Thomas Robinson doesn’t have the highest ceiling. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has a broken jump shot. Bradley Beal is undersized. Harrison Barnes had a disappointing sophomore year. Andre Drummond has motor issues. With all due respect to Beal (and I’m a huge fan of him), only one of those five has the potential to become a true superstar—one of the three best players at his position. In a season in which the Bobcats can’t get any worse, why not take a chance on Andre Drummond?

Drummond is one of the tougher players to grade in the draft because he has so much talent but didn’t leave a spectacular impression after one year at UConn—not to mention how volatile young big men can be in the draft. He could be the next Andrew Bynum or even Dwight Howard, but a more realistic projection might be former Bobcat Tyson Chandler. Then again, he could fizzle out like the man who went directly before Chandler in the 2001 NBA Draft: Jordan’s nemesis Kwame Brown. The Bobcats had two main problems last year: they couldn’t stop teams from scoring at the basket at will, and they didn’t have a star. Drummond can fix both problems.

RESULT: Charlotte Selects Andre Drummond, C Connecticut

Biding Time

Points: D.J. Augustin is a restricted free agent and I can’t see him returning to Charlotte. When he wasn’t hurt last year, Augustin looked disengaged and the team clearly sees Kemba Walker as the future. Charlotte won’t be able to trade him in time to pick up an extra draft pick this year, so I expect them to deal him later in the offseason to a contending team for a mid-to-late first-round pick (think Dallas, Memphis, or the Lakers). In D.J.’s absence, Cho will then need to add another point guard or two, so I expect him to pick up a big, veteran guard (perhaps Royal Ivey or Keyon Dooling) and a Shannon Brown-esque reclamation project (maybe Jonny Flynn).

Wings: Charlotte still needs offense from somewhere, and the perimeter would be a good start. I have a feeling some quality wing players will be on the board for the #31 draft pick. Maybe that’s John Jenkins, Will Barton, Quincy Miller, or Jeff Taylor (who Chad Ford’s latest mock draft has slated to go 31st). Additionally, the Bobcats still need more three-point shooters, so Cho could take flyer on another young guard: James Anderson. He never got much playing time in San Antonio but the 23-year old lit up the Big 12, averaging 17.9 ppg on 37.5% shooting from beyond the arch over his three-year stretch at Oklahoma State. Brandon Roy would be a fantastic addition (and would help cast away demons from the ‘06 draft), but he’d likely prefer to go to a contending team like Miami or Boston.

Bigs: Bismack Biyombo, Andre Drummond, and their combined 14’11” wingspan will immediately alleviate Charlotte’s interior defense problem. There won’t be much offense immediately, but they should grow to emulate OKC’s defensive frontcourt of Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. Byron Mullens and D.J. White can bring short spurts of instant offense, and anything Tyrus Thomas brings will be gravy. It’s not a fantastic group, but there’s a lot of potential down low, and they won’t give up nearly as many easy buckets as last year.

RESULT: Charlotte signs James Anderson and Jonny Flynn to 2-year $5 million deals and Royal Ivey to a 1-year $1.25 million deal, drafts Jeff Taylor, sign-and-trades D.J. Augustin for a future 1st round pick, and extends a qualifying offer to D.J. White.

Bottom Out

PG: Walker/Flynn/Ivey

SG: Henderson/Anderson/Williams/Carroll

SF: Maggette/Taylor

PF: Biyombo/Thomas/White

C: Drummond/Mullens/Diop

If Rich Cho is trying to follow the Oklahoma City rebuilding plan—which, by the way, I fully support—the Bobcats need to stay bad for now. OKC picked up their stars because they were bad enough to get the 2nd pick to get Kevin Durant. Then Durant played off-position at shooting guard and the team was bad enough to get Russell Westbrook. Then Westbrook had his rookie struggles and the team was bad enough to land James Harden. (Editor’s Note: I’m sensing a pattern here)

The bottom line that winning 15 games and winning 25 games isn’t much different—neither team makes the playoffs. But the 15-win team gets a better draft pick. This Bobcats team is better than the dreadful 2011/12 Bobcats team, but then again, you could multiply last years win total by two and a half and still have the worst record in the league.

Charlotte probably won’t find their Kevin Durant in this draft. That ship sailed when Adam Silver announced those fatal words: “The second pick will be made by… the Charlotte Bobcats.” But their Kevin Durant may come around in the next draft in the form of Shabazz Muhammad—or even two years in the future in the form of Jabari Parker.

The worst thing the Bobcats could do is eat up their precious salary cap space with a terrible contract while they’re not competitive. Michael Jordan needs to bide his time until his Kevin Durant comes along. And until then, I think they should roll the dice on a potential superstar (Drummond) and some potential role players (Taylor, Flynn, and Anderson).

As we debate (agonize over?) the relative merits of Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Thomas Robinson, and Andre Drummond as potential selections for the Bobcats with the #2 pick, a tantalizing alternative has been presented.

Matt Moore of ProBasketballTalk makes a strong argument for trading the pick. The argument boils down to this: the Bobcats desperately need both a franchise player and a more general infusion of talent; there is not a franchise player in this draft other than Anthony Davis; thus, the Bobcats should trade down in an attempt to add a couple of talented players — pieces, or assets if you will.

Moore also identifies some weaknesses in this strategy: one, while it seems unlikely at this time, it is possible that one of the above-mentioned candidates for the second pick could develop into a franchise player, which would make the Bobcats look even worse than they already do (if that’s possible); and two, that the Bobcats would be unlikely to receive full objective value back when trading away the pick.

For what it’s worth, I think the former weakness is the more important one. Part of me thinks that the Bobcats should just decide which guy is going to be the best player, pick him at #2 and move forward. Don’t over-complicate things.

But building an NBA team is complicated. And the argument for trading the pick is admittedly compelling. The next question is: What could the Bobcats realistically get back for the second pick?

Speculation has mostly centered around the two teams with two first round picks: the Cavaliers (picks #4 and #24) and Trailblazers (picks #6 and #11). Obviously, the first step is that one of these teams must fall in love with a player.

The Cavaliers are building around the core of Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao. Most observers are putting the Cavaliers onto the prominent wing prospects in this draft: Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Harrison Barnes. The Cavaliers supposedly liked Harrison Barnes in last year’s draft, so if Barnes’ underwhelming 2011-12 season didn’t scare them off, they would certainly be able to sit back and get him at #4. But if they fall for Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal, they could package #4 and #24 to move up to #2 to ensure that they get their man.

Getting #4 and #24 would be attractive for the Bobcats in that they could very likely still get Thomas Robinson at #4 (who may be the best fit anyways) and pick up an extra player/asset at #24.

The negative part of this is that the Bobcats already have pick #31, the first pick of the second round. #24 and #31 aren’t that much different — are the Bobcats really going to give significant playing/development time next year to the #24 and #31 picks?

What you’d be hoping for is that someone who’s projected in the teens slips down to #24 so you get some real value there — Quincy Miller, for example? Or maybe you use one of those picks on a project (Fab Melo, Marquis Teague, Evan Fournier?) and stash him in the D-League/Europe while using the other pick on a more polished player who could contribute from Day 1 (Jeff Taylor, Draymond Greene, Andrew Nicholson?).

Moving on to Portland (picks #6 and #11), the Trailblazers are building around LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. Their biggest needs are a starting point guard and a big to pair with Aldridge. They could try to fill those needs with #6 and #11 (Chad Ford’s Mock 6.0 has them taking Andre Drummond and Damian Lillard, respectively, while Jonathan Givony/DraftExpress.com has them on Jared Sullinger and Kendall Marshall).

Or they could package the picks to move up to #2 to pick Thomas Robinson or Bradley Beal. While Robinson is possibly too similar to Aldridge and thus not the greatest fit, he’s plug-and-play NBA ready. Beal at 2-guard isn’t a primary need for the Blazers (they have Wesley Matthews there currently), but nonetheless keeps getting mentioned as as the guy that teams could really fall in love with.

Getting the sixth and eleventh picks would be supremely fun and terribly frightening for the Bobcats. They might end up having to work out 50+ players when you add in the prospects for the #31 pick.

They could do the most Bobcatsian thing ever and pick Harrison Barnes at #6 and Tyler Zeller at #11 (harkening back to the all-Tarheels 2005 draft of Raymond Felton and Sean May). People might riot, but those guys do fill needs — a wing and a big who meshes with Biyombo.

Or they could go with the two highest risk/reward prospects in the lottery: Andre Drummond at #6 and Perry Jones at #11 (again a big and a wing). That would be fascinating.

Really, the possibilities are endless — the upshot is that you’re getting two lottery picks in a pretty deep draft. And when you have as many holes as the Bobcats do, that’s probably the best move.

Bobcats Baseline: 2012 Draft Preview, Part I

“You don’t understand, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a winner!” – People on the Internet

Great! But why stop with MKG? Maybe the Bobcats should draft Michael Phelps or Tom Brady. What’s Ivan Lendl up to these days? Meryl Streep? She’s as decorated as they come. If I’ve learned one thing in my twenty-plus years of ring-less fandom, it is that THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN preprofessional and post-professional success. Period.

Emeka Okafor was a WINNER.

Raymond Felton and Sean “Crab Bread” May were WINNERS.

Kemba Walker was a WINNER.

Strange that the Bobcats have had all of these winners in their brief existence yet have lost so many games. Quick look at the stars currently playing for a title: Lebron, DWade, Pierce, Garnett, Rondo, Harden, Durant, Westbrook, Duncan, Ginobli, Parker. ZERO NCAA Championships total. Conclusion: IT DOESN’T EFFING MATTER.

“MKG has a motor that doesn’t stop!!!” – People on the Internet

So does a Honda Civic but you won’t see it on the track at Le Mans. Reggie Evans, Kenneth Faried, Cory Brewer, Matt Barnes and Tony Allen all give 110% every minute but if I was coming off the worst season in NBA history, I’m not sure I’d spend the Number Two Overall Pick on a non-game changing Energy Guy.

Oh yeah, and then there’s that thing about how Kidd-Gilchrist CAN’T SHOOT. Or create offense for himself. That’s gonna go over real well on a team already LOADED with offensive threats, right?

If Bobcats GM Rich Cho is 15% as smart as the internet gives him credit for, he ain’t gonna take MKG anyway so I don’t even know why we’re talking about him. If the team KEEPS the pick, they’ll almost certainly choose between the following three players (in no particular order):

1.) Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas

PROS: The Safe Pick. He’ll probably never beat Chris Bosh or Al Horford out of a starting All-Star gig but he’ll slide in nicely next to Biyombo to eventually form one of the East’s better, if undersized, frontcourts. His rebounding will be an instant godsend as will his ability to successfully execute any sort of offense within four feet of the basket.

CONS: Power Forward is hands down the easiest position in the NBA to fill right now. Aside from the top 5-6 guys, there’s not much separating the Carlos Boozers from the Drew Goodens. Not to mention the fact that Tyrus Thomas’s off year on the runway model diet may prove to be a fluke. Add to that the availability either via Free Agency or Trade of some solid starters (Paul Milsap, Ersan Illyasova, Brandon Wright, Josh Smith, Carl Landry) and it might not make sense to spend Number Two on a Glorified Replacement Player.

POTENTIAL TOP FIVE AT POSITION? No.

2.) Andre Drummond, C UCONN

PROS: The Vegas Pick. There just aren’t many dudes with Drummond’s combination of size and athleticism. He’s almost as HUGE as Bynum and Howard today at nineteen. His offense needs work and he’ll surely be a foul magnet and therefore a non-factor early in his career but if both parties invest heavily in his development, he may one day challenge Anthony Davis as the best big man in the 2012 Draft class. Pair him with Biyombo and they could form the most fearsome defensive frontcourt in the league for a decade.

CONS: Kwame 2, Electric Boogaloo. If he’s not serious about the game or his career he could single-handily set the franchise back at least another year. But for a team already playing from so far behind, that might not matter.

POTENTIAL TOP FIVE AT POSITION? Yes.

3.) Bradley Beal, SG Florida

PROS: The Cam Newton Pick. Lost in the now universal worship of Cam is the fact that most draft analysts initially had him pegged somewhere between a mid-first rounder to an early second round pick. Panthers GM Marty Hurney rightfully shut out the experts and picked the guy who was right for the team and situation, regardless of draft position. It paid off big.

Beal is this draft’s Newton. He does precisely the things the Bobcats desperately need: SHOOTING + DYNAMIC SCORING. Put him in a three guard rotation with Gerald Henderson and Kemba Walker and the Bobcats backcourt is a big point guard away from being good for a long while.

CONS: “But Gerald Henderson is our best player!!!” -People on the Internet – Do I even have to acknowledge this? I like Henderson. He’s fine but he’s probably the 19th best shooting guard in the league. Plus Beal can play some point. Like a rich man’s Sefolosha in OKC, there will be plenty of minutes available for Gerald, Jr.“You can’t draft an undersized SG at number two!”- Traditional Draft Experts - It’s a small-ball league now and has been for some time. Beal’s shooting and ability to get to the line will help the team in their dire most area of need. Instantly. If Rich Cho is 4% as smart as I think he is, look for Beal to be swishing threes next season in orange and blue.

The Bobcats have been looking forward to the 2012 NBA Draft since, oh, about February 2011. Fortunately, Operation Ping Pong Ball was a huge success and the Bobcats have the best chance at winning the #1 pick (25%) in Wednesday night’s lottery. And even more fortunately, there is a clear #1 pick this year in Anthony Davis.

Drafting Davis would finally give the Bobcats a franchise player around which to build. He would complement Bismack Biyombo well; neither one is a prototypical power forward or center, but their talent and athleticism would allow them to play together, freely switching defensively on the other teams’ bigs and concentrating on their strengths on the offensive end.

With Davis, the Bobcats would likely be able to lure a better coach this summer, and would improve appreciably on the court right away. Then they would have another first rounder (or two) in 2013 and, most importantly, tons of cap room to lure a top free agent in summer 2013. Yes, if the Bobcats get Anthony Davis in 2012 I think they very well could be in the playoffs by the 2013-14 season.

Unfortunately, there is a 75% chance that the Bobcats will not win the lottery, and will instead be picking second, third, or fourth. And most unfortunately, there are no surefire All-Stars after Davis. The once-vaunted 2012 NBA Draft has turned into a bunch of question marks.

Let’s be clear: it will be an absolute tragedy if (when?) the Bobcats don’t win the lottery Wednesday night. The players that will be available with picks 2-4 either have ceilings below “superstar” and/or have significant bust potential, making the Bobcats’ road back to relevance even longer.

When considering players in the same tier, team needs/strengths necessarily come into play. While the Bobcats do have the least talented roster in the league, there are some relative strengths that would be foolish to ignore. Probably the most striking is that the Bobcats have a glut of young and skilled, but either soft or undersized big men: Bismack Biyombo (undersized), Byron Mullens (soft), DJ White (soft), Tyrus Thomas (???). So basically, power forward is not a position of need — unless that “power forward” is Anthony Davis, a hybrid power forward/center with singular talent a la Tim Duncan.

I also think that Gerald Henderson at starting 2-guard is a relative strength. He has limitations, especially on the offensive end, and will never be an All-Star. But he’s cost-effective (and likely to stay that way even after his rookie deal runs out), a good defender, and still has some potential to improve offensively.

With that in mind, here are some thoughts about what the Bobcats might do with picks #2-4.

#2: There is a 21.5% chance that the Bobcats will end up with the second pick. It’s not a bad place to be, what with your choice of anyone not named Anthony Davis. But it will come with a lot of pressure to pick the right guy, and not the bust.

I think most teams, the Bobcats included, would probably go with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at #2. He has prototypical small-forward size (6’7″, 225), plenty of athleticism and is a strong leader. He’ll be a solid defender, and possibly an elite one, at his position. Offensively, he’s an amazing slasher/finisher who needs to work on his range and shotmaking. I really like the “Gerald Wallace, but with more offensive potential” comparison. Finally, there is low bust potential with Kidd-Gilchrist, which is an important consideration when picking at #2.

For the Bobcats, Kidd-Gilchrist is a fine fit. At his position, the Bobcats currently have Corey Maggette and Derrick Brown. The end of Maggette’s time as an NBA starter is rapidly approaching, if it’s not already here. He’ll be on an expiring contract in 2012-13, so would possibly be a nice trade chip for a contender at the deadline. Brown is a nice backup.

So Kidd-Gilchrist could step in and own the starting SF spot for the Bobcats for the next decade. His perimeter defense, toughness and leadership are sorely needed. And the Bobcats would just pray that the offense comes along.

#3: The Bobcats have a 17.7% chance of getting the third pick. Things get even trickier here, as you can’t be totally sure of who’s going to be available. But assuming Kidd-Gilchrist goes second, then Andre Drummond, Thomas Robinson, and Bradley Beal would all be in play here.

I believe the Bobcats would opt for Andre Drummond. Drummond has ideal size (6’11”, 270) and athleticism for the center position and will be able to contribute defensively right away, but will need time and hard work to develop offensively. A big bonus is that, like Davis, Drummond would mesh pretty well with Bismack Biyombo. Whoever ends up being the nominal power forward or center doesn’t matter — they can play together and switch freely while defending the opponents bigs.

However, Drummond’s heart, motor, and even desire to excel at basketball have come into question after an underwhelming freshman year at UConn. Consider what DeMarcus Cousins recently did with similar size and skills in his one-and-done year — he dominated. But Drummond wasn’t even in the same ballpark in regards to efficiency or impact, and could disappear for whole games at a time.

If teams don’t like where his head is at during workouts/interviews, he could slide down some boards. Combine the rawness on the offensive end with a motor that doesn’t run very hot and questionable work ethic, bake at 350° for 35 minutes and whala! Bust.

But if he works out hard and says the right things during the draft preparation process (not that hard), he could be in the mix at #2 for some teams, the Bobcats included. Even with red flags looming, most teams will be willing to take a chance on Drummond’s combination of size and skills with a high pick.

#4: If the Bobcats slide to the fourth pick (a 35.8% chance), it could get really dicey. There’s a decent chance that Bradley Beal could go #2 or #3; thus, Drummond would still be available at #4. That’s maybe a better place to pick Drummond anyways. But for my purposes here, let’s assume that Kidd-Gilchrist and Drummond go 2-3. It comes down to Bradley Beal or Thomas Robinson.

Beal is a slightly undersized, but physically solid, 2-guard in the mold of Eric Gordon. Thomas Robinson is a relatively refined and well-rounded power forward who was productive as the centerpiece of a very good Kansas team last year. Both are similarly low-risk. You see the problem though, in that each would duplicate one of the relative strengths that the Bobcats currently have.

The argument for Beal is that he probably has a higher ceiling than Robinson, and would provide some sorely needed outside shooting.

The argument for Robinson is that, while the Bobcats have some power forwards, they don’t have a prototypical, tough, well-rounded one. But I don’t think he fits well with Biyombo, in that Robinson doesn’t have the size to defend centers. Any big that the Bobcats consider really needs to have that ability, in order to take some of the load off Biyombo.

It would be a dilemma, but with the Bobcats in search of star power and an identity, I think the pick would be Beal. But it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Perry Jones or Harrison Barnes get a long look if the Bobcats do slip to pick #4.

So what would be worth a record-settingly uncompetitive season of losing? As a fan, it’s really tough to justify why the Bobcats would be so terrible. The chance to select the next mega-talent in the 2012 Draft is nice. Freeing up some cash to sign one or two upper-tier free agents wouldn’t be so bad, either. Maybe, someone could argue that playing time for some of the Bobcats’ youngsters will develop them into solid players down the line. It’s all kind of hypothetical, so let’s hope the Rich Cho Rehab Plan works out.

It’s All On Cho

After seeing the Oklahoma City Thunder absolutely dismantle the Chicago Bulls on Sunday, I can only dream that we see the Bobcats shine so bright on national television in the future. The Thunder are the success story, while the Sacramento Kings or Washington Wizards might show you the other side of the coin. Hopefully, Rich Cho’s involvement with the Thunder/Sonics right before they got it going will result in the same amazing kind of turnaround for Charlotte’s suffering franchise.

Ease the Pain

When it comes to free agency, we should just take two steps and jump straight to the point. Dwight Howard’s not coming. Deron Wiilliams wouldn’t be worth the trouble even if would join the club. No superstars are targeting the Queen City, but a load of mid-level talent could find a a club like the Bobcats a good place to show their skills if they can be sold on the team’s direction. Some role player types like Matt Barnes, OJ Mayo, or Marco Bellinelli might see the Cats as a good fit for their career if the team shows that they’re putting the right pieces into place. If the front office could pull the strings, they might even land a player like Nicolas Batum or Ersan Ilyasova that could breakout and veer toward All-Star status one day. So, rather than betting it all on the NBA Draft Lottery ping-pong balls over the next few years, a few smart steps in free agency could leave the Cats with a bit more control over their destiny.

Alternately, an argument could be made that a star player would be well worth this embarrassing season. Honestly, the Bobcats could really use some luck in this game. Despite their regular appearances in the Draft Lottery, Charlotte just can’t catch the big one. It’s a shame to think that Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and Derrick Rose have all landed in the league since the Bobcats’ first tip in 2004, and Charlotte didn’t snag one of them. Will Kentucky’s Anthony Davis prove to be worth this embarrassing season? He’s putting on a show right now in the NCAA Final Four. As Bobcats fans, we’re probably all hoping to catch a legendary performance in Monday night’s Championship game. Could Davis suit up as a Bobcat, and play like the next Chris Bosh? Would that scenario make us all forget about how bad the Bobcats were this season? And if the Bobcats don’t get the coveted first pick, does any other player help to ease the pain? Davis’ teammate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Connecticut’s Andre Drummond wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes. Whoever the Bobcats might pick, the team will need him to be a guaranteed starter and a potential All-Star – someone that can sell jerseys and win games. That’s not so much to ask, right?