San Jose State football: Grading the Week

Last week in this space, we noted the big-picture implications of the road wins over Hawaii and Colorado State. But developments during the Spartans’ bye week pushed the significance to another level.

SJSU now has momentum, rest and a reeling opponent: Wyoming got its clock cleaned by Colorado State just one week after CSU was beaten at home by the Spartans.

After a strong start, Wyoming has lost two of its last three. Comparative scores can often be misleading, but it’s difficult to draw any conclusion other than this: SJSU has a terrific chance to continue its mid-season surge.

After Wyoming comes UNLV, which is better than it has been but hardly overwhelming.

Looking at the bowl math …

The Spartans (3-3) need three more wins to qualify for the postseason and four more to be guaranteed a berth. (For teams with low national profiles and tepid fan support, 6-6 is a risky existence on bowl selection day.)

Three wins: Wyoming, UNLV and take-your-pick.

But a loss to Wyoming would make three wins a struggle and four exceedingly difficult.

The Spartans put themselves in position for the postseason with back-to-back road wins. A loss this week would negate much of what they accomplished before the bye.

Result: Bye

Grade: N/A

Comment: Three keys to the second half (over and above maintaining reasonably good health):

1. The running game.

It’s not a coincidence that the 2013 version of quarterback David Fales looked a lot like the ’12 version against Colorado State: The Spartans rushed for 177 yards.

Add the total from Hawaii, and SJSU gained 393 yards on the ground in the crucial pre-bye victories.

In order to keep winning, the Spartans need to keep running.

Wyoming is ninth in the MW against the run (247 ypg).

UNLV is 10th.

2. Red zone improvement.

For whatever reason, the RZ offense remains appalling: SJSU has four touchdowns in 18 trips.

(Coach Ron Caragher believes the issue is execution. My thought: When a facet of play is that bad, it’s never just one thing.)

If the red zone malfunctions continue, the Spartans will be hard pressed to win four more games.

3. Third down defense.

The Spartans rank 104th nationally in defending the most important down: Opponents are converting at a rate of 44.7 percent.

That won’t cut it down the stretch. SJSU must do a better job getting off the field — and giving the ball back to Fales.

They’ve got him for six more games. Make the most of it.

Next up: vs. Wyoming

The matchup: The first meeting in 16 years will test San Jose State’s secondary.

The Cowboys average 300 yards passing per game; they’re efficient on third down; and they’re effective in the red zone.

* Quarterback Brett Smith, a former SJSU recruit, threw for 383 yards and four touchdowns in the loss at Nebraska.

For the season, he has 16 touchdown passes and six interceptions.

* The key for SJSU is to contain Wyoming’s running game, which averages 5.4 yards per carry.

If the Cowboys are able to run and pass successfully, they’ll match SJSU score-for-score and the outcome will be in doubt well into the fourth quarter.

* SJSU opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but the line has jumped to six.