General Election 2015 – A Guide To Betting

With the election now only two days away the polls have the Conservatives and Labour as closer than ever, both hovering around the 280 seat mark.

Inevitably some polls show the Conservatives as slightly ahead, and others with Labour in the lead.

However, the history of political betting show us that the betting markets are a much more reliable predictor than the polls, as polls tend to focus on favourable numbers and provide a snapshot, whereas the betting markets consider trends.

The betting markets correctly predicted the ‘No’ result in last year’s Scottish independence referendum throughout the entirety of the campaign, the polls had the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ camps as neck and neck all the way up to polling day. Although this general election is very close, there are a number of likely outcomes.

Most seats – Labour @ 4/1 (Betfred)

The markets have the Conservatives as the favourite, with Ladbrokes offering 1/5.

Labour winning the most seats is offered by Betfred at 4/1.

Labour’s numbers have been drifting over the past few days, giving the Conservatives a projected lead of 4 seats as of today.

However, with the number of seats so close this could turn at any moment, making Labour a viable option.

Who wins the most seats doesn’t necessarily translate into who will ultimately become Prime Minister.

The odds of who is Prime Minister after the general election has both Miliband and Cameron as even.

There is not much to choose from here, but if Cameron manages to cobble together a coalition with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party and the Liberal Democrats to edge him over 325 seats to gain a majority, then Unibet’s 19/20 price is the best that’s on offer.

Next Government – Labour minority @ 15/8 (Bet365)

There is concern over the Scottish National Party (SNP) shoring up Labour in the inevitable event of any party being able to form a majority.

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Whilst Ed Miliband has ruled out a formal coalition, or ‘any sort of deal’ with the SNP, he knows that should he try to form a minority government the SNP and the other left leaning parties will most likely not vote him down.

As David Cameron would struggle to pass a Queen’s Speech without reaching a majority in coalition with other parties, he could have the first attempt at forming a minority government if he wins the most seats.

Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the SNP, has repeatedly said she wants to ‘lock the Tories out of Downing Street’, if they gain upwards of 50 seats in Scotland, as is likely, her party plus Labour would vote to oppose Cameron’s minority.

Given SNP support the most likely outcome is a minority Labour government, on offer from Bet365 at 15/8.

Most votes – Labour @ 4/1 (Betfred)

Due to the peculiarities of our first-past-the-post voting system it does not always translate that the party with the most seats is the one who received the most votes.

With both parties currently estimated to win 33% of the votes there is the possibility that Labour could edge ahead in the number of votes, even if it does not win the most seats.

A second General Election @ 9/4 (Bet365)

If either party forms a minority government it is likely that it will not last past a few months.

Minority governments are inherently unstable as it is difficult to push policy and legislation through when they are put to a vote, given that opposition parties total more votes than the government.

As happened in 1974 under Labour’s Harold Wilson, a second General Election is becoming more likely.

Thanks for your comment Paul. I suspect you won’t be alone on that flight out of the UK.
Think I’ll be doing an all-nighter as the results come in

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Gordon meldrum

5 years ago

I take it PaulS stays in England
I’m even worse I’ve got the prospect of Sturgeon turning Scotland into North Korea and banning Internet betting
God help us with a Milliband /Krankie sorry Sturgeon coalition

MY GUESS ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY ?? WRONG IS THAT YOUR STILL UNEMPLOYED AND LIVING OFF OF THE STATE.IF I AM WRONG ARE YOU PROBABLY A SEDUCED MUSLIM

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Val

5 years ago

Despite Labour insisting COnservatives economic policy totally wrong at the start of this government – we now have the best economy in Europe (and beyond). I don’t want to l Iive in a country where a government’s answer to a problem is borrow borrow borrow. I don’t want that legacy of debt for my children or grandchildren.

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Fran

5 years ago

So the right wing press have sold you the big lie! The global market collapse of 2008 was not caused by Labour. But Tories used it to set up the austerity misery whilst increasing privatisation and making rich people and corporations richer. There is never any trickle down effect (not even a dribble!) with the Tories. They are not saving this country, they are destroying through ideology.

I’m trying to remain impartial but must admit to also being surprised at the support we’ve seen on the poll for Green for that very reason

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David

5 years ago

Ed (Moses) Miliband will take us back to the days before New Labour with heavy interventionist policies (supported by Unions and pressured by the Scottish Siren) thinking he can run business better than actual business management ( even though he has never been in business himself). Cameron may not be the best leader we have had but he is better than the rest and has done a good job over the last five years albeit with the influence of the LD’s to some extent. He would get my vote.

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Trevor G Jones

5 years ago

I think this election is a bit like shall I shoot myself, stab myself or hang myself but I think Cameron is the best of a bad bunch at least he talks some sense.

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Andy

5 years ago

Will be good to see all these people leave the country when Labour come into power…..the country will be a much better place without them!!…..and my pockets will be a lot heavier with my winnings.

HOW WRONG YOU WOULD BE ANDY. IT WOULD BE THE WRONG ONES LEAVING. NOT THE ONES YOUR REFERING TO.AND I CAN STILL BACK MY GEE GEES IN GRAN CANARIA

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BRIANHOLA

5 years ago

FOR PAUL AND THE REST IF LABOUR GOT IN YOU ALL MAY AS WELL LEAVE AS I DID IN 1998 PEOPLE ALWAYSSAY TORYS LOOK AFTER THE RICH……QUESTION WERE WOULD ALL COMPANIES THAT EMPLOY ALL THE WORKERS BE WITHOUT BEING A LITTLE RICH TO SET THECOMPANIES U IN THE FIRST PLACE.I HAVE NEVER BEEN RICH I LEFT THE UK WITH 3000POUNDS.
I WOULD NEVER VOTE LABOUR.LOOK WHAT AURTHER SCARGILL DONE TO THE NINERS BUT I SURE THE MAJRITY OF PEOPLE TODAY DO NOT NO THE PAST FORA VERY CONSERVATIVE PERSON IN MANY WAYS

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BRIANHOLA

5 years ago

The country now has stability…how long ago was it when the country last had stability?????was it the Labour Goverment in the 60s was it labour back in the twentys….I DON’T THINK SO.ONLY AN IDIOT PARTY WOULD LEAVE A NOTE WE HAVE SPENT ALL THE MONEY OH !!I THINK THAT WAS LABOUR

I was accused of not being “very educated in politics”. There might be some truth in that. But I don’t get my political education from heavily-biased newspapers owned by mega-rich people who want to mould Great Britain to suit their self-interests. Nor do I just spout what they tell me. To bring up Mr Scargill in the context of today’s Labour Party! That is so laughable! That note about “we’ve spent all the money”…….. things must be desperate to fall back on such stories to try to influence voters away from Labour!

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Roger

5 years ago

Yesterday I saw my friend Nicola (her interpretation of our relationship-not mine) open her mouth without a lie emanating. However she was yawning!!!!!!! Can anyone tell me how much of our enormous overseas aid budget goes to Scotland?

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Dave.C

5 years ago

Don’t let blinkered idiots like BRIANHOLA give you his Tory slant on British history. It was the disastrous Heath [Conservative] government from 70-74 that plunged this country back into the dark ages [3 day weeks, power cuts and all that]. Also, it was his chancellor of the ex-chequer who left a letter to the incoming Labour chancellor [James Callaghan] in 1974, that said ‘sorry old chap but there’s no money!] As for Arthur Scargill, he was just defending his own workers, hardworking British people. It was Mrs. Thatcher who was trying to destroy them, she called her own British workers… Read more »

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Geoffrey

5 years ago

I have a feeling and a very strong one at that, UKIP will do far better than many of the polls are suggesting. When polls are conducted ‘in secret’ (ie not face to face) Ukip get far closer to 20%, sometimes above. Many people are worried about being branded ‘racist.’

So, Ladbrokes giving 4.5 for a 15-20% share of the vote, or PP giving 2.38 for 4 seats or more has to be a good shot.

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Geoffrey

5 years ago

If people want to vent their own political ideals, there are forums far better suited to that purpose. Can we please have more ideas on tips for the big day please?

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Dave.C

5 years ago

Geoffrey, I agree with you completely. I just felt I had to put the record straight on what BRIANHOLA said, I”ve come across people like him before, talking down to people like Fran who don’t agree with his Tory view and trying to make out he’s some sort of political/history expert, which he clearly is not. On gambling, let’s not forget it was the Labour chancellor Gordon Brown who got rid of betting tax, you had to pay 10p in every pound when I started gambling, and the Conservatives were against getting rid of it. I agree with you that… Read more »

Anyone who goes for Milliband / Scottish Power must be off their proverbial rockers. What NO TRIDENT – Ultimate Independence for Scotland – Continuing to be governed from Brussels – No way to stop rampant immigration! – Prolific borrowing and spending. NO NO NO – The best result would be an unlikely Tory majority or Cameron supported by the lib Dems and UKIP. The British people aren’t daft and I believe both the Tories and UKIP are going to do much better than predicted. If only we had proportional voting, UKIP would do really well.

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