NBA Win Predictions for 2012-13 Volume 2: The Hand-Crafted edition

“If I could explain it to the average person, I wouldn’t have been worth the Nobel Prize.”

― Richard P. Feynman

Remember how I said I was going to get it wrong? Yesterday I gave you the full win projections for the year. Now I wrote some code to automate the minute projection, some of you raised some flags as to the actual results. I reviewed them and they were good.

So guess what? I did it all over again.

Let’s walk thru it first. First I redid the full depth chart with the new algorithm.

Then I redid the full player projection:

I did six separate projections.They are listed below:

Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers.

Last Years Wins Shares per 48 numbers (calculated by me using the instruction on Basketball on Paper).

Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers adjusted for new position adjustments.

The weighted averages of the last three years of Wins Produced per 48 numbers.

The weighted averages of the last three years of Wins Produced per 48 numbers incorporating the age model.

Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers adjusted for new position adjustments taking into account the preseason.

Team by team looks like so:

Then I did the the team projection again.

The 2012-13 Projection v2

Team

Conference

Last Year

Composite Projection

Change

Seed

New York Knicks

East

44.7

56.53

11.8

1

Miami Heat

East

57.2

56.12

-1.0

2

Atlanta Hawks

East

49.7

46.42

-3.3

3

Chicago Bulls

East

62.1

46.09

-16.0

4

Milwaukee Bucks

East

38.5

43.10

4.6

5

Boston Celtics

East

48.5

42.14

-6.3

6

Indiana Pacers

East

52.2

41.55

-10.6

7

Philadelphia 76ers

East

43.5

40.65

-2.8

8

Toronto Raptors

East

28.6

37.65

9.1

9

Washington Wizards

East

24.8

34.30

9.5

10

Brooklyn Nets

East

27.3

32.41

5.1

11

Cleveland Cavaliers

East

26.1

28.73

2.6

12

Orlando Magic

East

46.0

27.24

-18.7

13

Detroit Pistons

East

31.1

24.47

-6.6

14

Charlotte Bobcats

East

8.7

19.34

10.6

15

Team

Conference

Last Year

Composite Projection

Change

Seed

San Antonio Spurs

West

62.1

56.97

-5.2

1

Denver Nuggets

West

47.2

55.67

8.5

2

Oklahoma City Thunder

West

58.4

52.20

-6.2

3

Minnesota Timberwolves

West

32.3

52.17

19.9

4

Los Angeles Clippers

West

49.7

49.68

0.0

5

Los Angeles Lakers

West

50.9

47.56

-3.4

6

Memphis Grizzlies

West

50.9

45.43

-5.5

7

New Orleans Hornets

West

26.1

44.14

18.0

8

Utah Jazz

West

44.7

42.90

-1.8

9

Houston Rockets

West

42.2

40.92

-1.3

10

Portland Trail Blazers

West

34.8

39.00

4.2

11

Golden State Warriors

West

28.6

37.46

8.9

12

Dallas Mavericks

West

44.7

32.58

-12.1

13

Phoenix Suns

West

41.0

30.22

-10.8

14

Sacramento Kings

West

27.3

26.34

-1.0

15

The big changes are the Knicks slipping past the Heat for the #1 seed in the east and the Spurs rising past Denver and OKC to number 1 in the west. The Bucks jump the Celtics and Pacers for the fourth seed to round out the playoff picture in the East. In the West, the Hornets leap past the Jazz and seize the honor of making the Spurs look extremely good in Round 1 of the western playoffs.

As a final bonus, like before here’s the modified playoff predictions:

You’ll note that I added in two adjustments. One is for playoff experience and the ability to draw calls. The other is for clear coaching mismatches. At this point it’s a little back of the envelope but I will develop this more before the playoffs.

The model likes the Lakers over the Thunder as the only upset in round #1, holds to form in Round 2, likes the Heat in an “upset” over the Knicks in the Eastarn Conference Finals (the Heat could easily have homecourt in this series and would be favored heavily either way). It likes San Antonio to undress George Karl in the Western Conference Finals and to win the Finals regardless of who has the homecourt advantage.

The most interesting to note is that it really looks like San Antonio, Miami, Denver and the field as of right now. With the difference between San Antonio and Miami being miniscule.

This is a much better feeling than yesterday. Basketball is after all a Big Boy game.

As a Knicks fan, I must say this is some great work. I always enjoy comparing these models to the expert predictions. I’m not going to pick apart the minute projection for a bunch of teams, but one really stands out to me. Ed Davis goes from 23-25 mpg the prior two seasons to under 6? a 75% cut in his minutes? Wouldn’t that make him just about the optimal candidate for someone like San Antonio to pluck away for next to nothing in a trade?

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