NASA GISS head — Gavin Schmidt — in a recent tweet estimated that 2016 would fall into a range near 1.32 C above the 1880-1899 average that NASA uses for its preindustrial baseline. By comparison, 2015 — which was the most recent hottest year on record after 2014 (three in a row!) — hit 1.07 C above the 1880-1899 average.

(According to NASA, the first three months of 2016 were 1.25 C above the NASA 20th Century baseline and a ridiculous 1.47 C above the 1880 through 1899 preindustrial average. Image source: NASA GISS.)

As a result, 2016 will likely have jumped by about a quarter of a degree Celsius in a single year. If every year from 2016 on warmed up so fast the world would surpass the dreaded 2 C mark by 2019 and rocket to about +22 C above 19th Century averages by 2100. That’s not going to happen. Why? Because natural variability assisted greenhouse gas warming from fossil fuels to kick 2016 higher in the form of a serious heavyweight El Nino. But it’s a decent exercise to show how ridiculously fast the world is expected to warm from 2015 to 2016. And in the 2014-2016 string of three record warm years in a rowwe are basically expecting a 0.40 C jump above the then record warm year of 2010. Given that the world has warmed, on average by about 0.15 C to 0.20 C per decade since the late 1970s, what we’re expecting to see is about two decades worth of warming all cram-jammed into the past three years.

More Severe Arctic Heat is on the Way

But the Earth, as of this Earth Day, hasn’t warmed evenly. A far, far greater portion of that excess heat has stooped over the Arctic. During the first three months of 2016, the Arctic region above 66 degrees North Latitude has been fully 4.5 C hotter than the NASA 20th Century baseline. That’s a departure more than three times that of the rest of the Earth. And that’s bad news for anyone concerned about sea ice, or polar bears, or Arctic carbon feedbacks, or predictable seasons, or extreme droughts and floods, or the Jet Stream, or Greenland melt, or sea level rise, or … well, you get the picture.

(Neven posted this excellent blog tracking a ferocious amount of heat in the region of the Greenland and Barents Sea. Arctic Sea Ice Forum commenter Andreas T provided this graphical representation of sea ice disintegration as it was blown into waters just to the north of Svalbard earlier this week.)

As Winter progresses into Spring, temperatures typically moderate — closing in on baseline averages. And this year has been no exception. However, readings for the entire Arctic have tended to range between 1.5 and 2.5 C above average over the past two weeks. These are some seriously hot departures for Spring. Enough to keep Arctic heat in record ranges for 2016.

Three Powerful Warm Wind Events to Strike the Arctic in Concert

But over the coming five days, a series of south-to-north warm wind events is expected to push even these seasonally excessive readings higher.

(GFS model forecasts predict Arctic temperatures to rise into a range between 3 and 5 C above normal for this time of year over the coming week. Such departures are in record ranges and will likely result in rapid snow and sea ice melt even as it drives a wedge of cold air out of the Arctic and over Europe — setting up a high risk of very severe weather events. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

The first event is predicted to originate over the Yamal Peninsula of Russia during Saturday and Sunday — lasting on into Monday and Tuesday. There, temperatures are expected to rise into the (scorching for the Arctic at this time of year) mid 30s (F) as strong, warm winds blow over about 1,000 miles of western Russia and on up into the Kara and Laptev seas which are predicted to, likewise, experience near or above freezing temperatures. Over the entire region, temperatures are expected to range between 18 and 36 degrees F (10-20 C) above typical daily averages for this time of year. Snow and sea ice melt melt rates in this already rapidly thawing region will almost certainly pick up pace in the face of these obnoxiously unseasonable readings.

A second warm wind event is predicted to heat up Greenland, Baffin Bay, the mouth of Hudson Bay and a chunk of the Canadian Archipelago on Monday and Tuesday. A 1,500 mile synoptic southeast to northwest air flow is expected to originate in the Central North Atlantic. Running along the back of a high pressure system rooted between Iceland and Southeastern Greenland, these winds will ram a broad front of above-freezing airs over a rapidly melting Baffin Bay, dramatically warm the southern 2/3 of Greenland, and flush a comparable warm air pulse into the outlets of Hudson Bay. Temperatures in this broad zone are also expected to hit 18-36 F (10-20 C) above average readings. And its effects will likely be strong enough to initiate another strong early season melt spike for Greenland in addition to aiding in driving a quickening pace of melt for Baffin and Hudson bays.

(Shattered sea ice over the Beaufort and Chukchi looks as if it’s been fractured from a blow from Thor’s mythical hammer Mjolnir. Open water and very thin ice openings stretch as wide as 60 miles in some sections. A warm wind event later this week is expected to provide still more melt pressure to this already greatly weakened sea ice. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)

A final warm wind event will be fed by a big warm up across Alaska predicted to settle in on Wednesday and Thursday. There, temperatures in Central Alaska are expected to rise into the lower 60s as two stalled out lows to the south pull warmer airs up from the Pacific Ocean. This heat is expected to invade the Chukchi and Beaufort seas driving temperatures to near or above freezing over Arctic Ocean surfaces that have already witnessed a great shattering of ice and an opening of dark, heat-venting open water holes. There the anomaly spike will be slightly milder — in the range of 15-32 F (8-18 C) above average. Such heat will provide melt stress to the fractured Beaufort, likely making more permanent the wide array of open water and thin ice spaces as the push toward Summer advances.

Mangled Jet Stream to Bring Storms to Europe

As all this heat bullies its way into the Arctic, a flood of cold air is expected to flee out of the region and on down a big dip in the Jet Stream — making a late-season invasion across the North Atlantic and into Europe. There, as we’ve seen previously during recent warm wind invasions of the Arctic during Fall, Winter and Spring, warm air from the south tends to cause cold to break out and then to dive down the trough lines. And there’s a huge trough predicted to dig in over Europe.

We should expect some rather severe weather to accompany this Springtime onrush of colder air — including potentially extreme thunderstorms, flooding, and even instances of late April snowfall over parts of Norway, Sweden, Scotland, the Alps, and sections of Germany.

(A very deep Arctic trough is expected to dig into Europe and the Mediterranean this coming week bringing with it the likelihood of some very severe weather. Image source: ECMWF/Severe Weather EU.)

Likely increased rates of sea ice melt, a severe blow to record low snow packs around the Arctic and a likely freakish cold air and severe weather invasion of Europe are all a result of this extreme Arctic heat playing havoc with typical weather and seasonality. By the middle of next week, temperature anomalies for the entire Arctic may rise to as high as 5 C above the already much warmer than normal 1981 to 2010 average. In such a case, we could hardly expect weather or climate conditions to be normal and there appears to be a big helping of weirdness and extreme effects coming down the pipe over the next seven days.

231 Comments

wili

It looks like we’re likely to have record-low sea ice by the end of the melt season, and I don’t see how we can rule out a ‘virtually ice free’ (under one million square k extent) Arctic, especially if conditions are right for large transport of old ice as well as scorching weather patterns.

wili

Your part about intensifying storms hitting Europe is what really concerns me most directly. Not only because it’s pretty much the scenario Hansen laid out in his book, iiirc, but also selfishly because my daughter has just decided to go to college in the Netherlands for the next three (at least) years.

So, to put this more into context for you — a big warm air invasion into the Arctic through the Greenland Sea and the Barents was the trigger for both the Russian drought/fires of 2011 and the Pakistan floods. Blocking high, warm air invasion into Arctic, massive trough that dumped a biblical flood onto Pakistan — that was the set-up. We should be very concerned about them.

My best hopes for your daughter, Wili. Europe is definitely in the firing line. We all are.

wili

Thanks for connecting the dots, here and everywhere. And for your concern. At least Dutch officials don’t seem to have their heads in the sand (avoiding the more graphic metaphor, here) as much as many US congress folks!

DrFog

Gosh, some glimmer of hope can be seen in that video documentary! How could those people, specially the kids, have escaped the relentless indoctrination that capitalism subjects almost everyone since they are very young? No doubt having the advice of a wise man like Dr. James Hansen must have helped.

I mean, those people seem far more enlightened than most people here in the Cote d’Azur or French Riviera. This is an absolute paradise for petrol heads, cars, cars everywhere, big traffic jams and pollution almost everyday. No rubbish separation and recycling, almost most of it is just incinerated.

In this very sunny region I haven’t seen yet any house or building with solar panels on the roof, either PV or just thermal. This is probably the most environmentally unfriendly *rich* region I ever been to. Usually I travel here on my bicycle but I see almost no one else doing that.

Having lived in Baden-Württemberg (southern Germany) where rubbish separation and recycling is actually enforced, where many, many houses have PV panels, where cycle lanes are everywhere (and even cleared after it snows), coming to the south of France was a bit of a shock, what I see here gives me no hope.

Griffin

Another outstanding post Robert!
If we could add one more threat to your areas listed above I would nominate the Oklahoma / Kansas area next week. The Storm Prediction Center has taken the unusual step of highlighting the threat area a full five days out. Tuesday is shaping up to be a potentially very dynamic event for those folks.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

George W. Hayduke

Can anyone answer this, with this El Niño being so strong and now early forcasts say will be followed by La Niña, will the La Niña be stronger than usual event? I live in MT and because of the switch in jetstream our El Niño was not as strong as other years. We typically benefit from La Niñas.

– You really put the above elements into context — the Arctic heat — the wind events — and the possible range of resulting climate impacts.
They give every one something to follow and be alarmed at — both real-time and the near future.
The future looks it may be here now.
Thanks, again.
DT

– NA USA PNW WA — It seems we may have a bit of a suicidal impulse when it comes to fossil fuels. Especially when $$$ are attached — then communities are subject to being blown ‘all to hell’ by oil trains.
The shame.
– The sub headline is a bit telling though. Money seems to equate with life itself. This seems rather spiritually and morally bankrupt at face.
We have to elevate life above the treasure. We must.

With no fanfare whatsoever, Tacoma has claimed a new, though dubious, distinction: it is now the Northwest city most threatened by oil trains. As new research by Sightline reveals, a combined 80,000 barrels per day of crude oil—about 8 loaded trains per week—are permitted to travel on a publicly owned railway into the heart of Tacoma’s industrial area. In addition, another 15 loaded trains bound for north Puget Sound refineries can also pass through the city each week.

No other urban center in the region plays host to so much oil train capacity inside city limits.

Ryan in New England

Wow, this is really dramatic stuff! So Robert, with these invasions of really warm air encountering fragile, single year ice, I’m worried the remaining ice will vanish this summer the way those bergs did in the animation. As we all know, the Arctic is far from the multi-meter thick ice it used to be.

Colorado Bob

Wharf Rat

The Santa Barbara oil spill occurred in January and February 1969 in the Santa Barbara Channel, near the city of Santa Barbara in Southern California. It was the largest oil spill in United States waters at the time, and now ranks third after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon and 1989 Exxon Valdez spills. It remains the largest oil spill to have occurred in the waters off California.

The aftermath of the spill inspired then-Sen. Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin to organize what came to be known as “Earth Day”, when he succeeded in amassing some 20 million people to the cause of educating people on issues related to the environment on April 20, 1970, with the help of U.S. Rep. Pete McCloskey of California.[73]

New evidence extends the size of the disaster that occurred six years ago this week.
…
Scientists from the federal government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several private research companies found oil along 1,313 miles (2,113 kilometers) out of 5,930 miles (9,545 kilometers) of surveyed shoreline after the spill, an increase of 19 percent from previously published estimates. That makes the disaster the largest marine oil spill in history by length of shoreline oiled, the team reported in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin.
… the oiled shoreline was roughly evenly split between beaches (46 percent) and coastal wetlands (52 percent), with the remaining 2 percent being all other shoreline types. Most of the wetlands were in Louisiana.
…
The National Wildlife Federation says more than three-quarters of pregnant bottlenose dolphins in the oiled areas failed to give birth to a viable calf in the years since the disaster. Between two and five trillion larval fish and 8.3 billion oysters are estimated to have been lost, resulting in a substantial impact to the region’s fishery. Threatened gulf sturgeon and Bryde’s whales are also thought to have been harmed.

About 30 percent of the oil thought to have been spilled is still unaccounted for…

Colorado Bob

Colorado Bob

Phil

Robert, a very interesting discussion of things happening currently in the arctic. Will be interesting to see how things pan out.

I have had the impression that since the events of 2012 there has been the tendency for particularly mild winters perhaps because of arctic amplification during the November to February period followed by some easing (relatively less heat build-up in the arctic) and also reasonably mild summers. Accompanying this has been extent and area being the lowest recorded values over this period before a slight recovery to positions in say the top five or ten lowest or something like that in the last couple of years.

This year seems a bit different in that we are still seeing some rather mild winter type conditions with excessive heat still remaining a factor in the arctic that is still preconditioning things for the summer melt. Supporting this is the extent and area are still in lowest position and by a significant margin – e.g. running a week ahead of normal.

Will be interesting to see how summer turns out – whether it is mild or a warm summer and how storm tracks and numbers influence things.

Looks like the US Navy model is projecting a severe storm crossing from the Russian side in the arctic.

Phil

So the Arctic this year has not experienced even one week of average temperatures. Everything so far is above average to record hot. In addition, we have the post El Niño tendency to spin up the gyres and deliver still more oceanic heat to this sensitive region. 2016 summer conditions will not be similar to 2013 or 2014. We are hitting the top of the natural variability cycle in the Arctic — which tends to peak at the end of El Niño through up to 2 years after. So in my view there is a very high heat momentum building in the Arctic at this time.

Cate

Politics
China’s Plan to Pass Through Northwest Waters Could Threaten Canadian Sovereignty

To cut back on travel times between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, China has encouraged ships flying its flag to take the Northwest Passage via the Arctic Ocean, a route opened up by global warming.

China is increasingly becoming active in the Polar Regions as it grows to be the biggest mining investor in Greenland along with its free trade with Iceland. Taking the Arctic Ocean route would save Chinese companies time and money. An example is the journey from Shanghai to Hamburg which if taken via the Arctic route is 2, 800 nautical miles shorter than if taken through the Suez Canal, which would take 12277 nautical miles.

To help Chinese mariners plan maritime voyages, China’s Maritime Safety Administration released the Arctic Navigation Guide this month, a 365-page guide, compiled by ocean and shipping experts, which includes detailed information on sea and ice weather. According to China’s Ministry of Transport, the guidebook serves as an arctic passage operating manual.

So the world may well go through those waters but they must realise that they will be on their own. If trouble happens, Canadian SAR will be ill-equipped to respond to shipping accidents in such remote and problematic waters.

Colorado Bob

Ryan in New England

I just overheard NBC’s Today this morning, and their meteorologist Dylan Dreyer had a segment about the devastating coral bleaching…and not a single word about climate change! I was ready to smash the television. She informed us that El Nino (the strongest one ever) was the sole cause of all of it, and was also the reason for any extreme or unusual weather we have experienced, such as Houston’s floods, warmth in Alaska and the Arctic, etc. This crap was beyond irresponsible and angered me nearly as much as the USA Today opinion piece (comprised of 100% bullsh*t and lies) that Jeremy linked to above. When I read the comments there it makes me lose what little hope I had in the future.

There does appear to be this trend to blame it all on El Niño. But most of these El Niño effects would not have been anywhere near as extreme without climate change. It’s like El Niño is the little guy standing on the shoulders on the giant that is climate change.

Colorado Bob

John Peter

Thanks one and all.
The amount of information, links and videos is staggering, so informative.
This site is my primary source that is used on other forums.
I give attribution and suggest folks subscribe.

Tourism, fisheries — and the water supply — are at risk
…
There have been periods in history where environmental conditions deteriorate then bounce back. The oceans, for example, have seen big changes over millions of years.

But we may now be approaching a tipping point, where our waters and the creatures living in them can’t adapt. Bigger and more severe blooms aren’t going away anytime time soon.

“We’ve been lucky that the ocean is as resilient as it is, but if we keep pushing it, the ocean just will not recover,” said Kudela. “As time goes on, we’re seeing more and more evidence of bad things happening in the ocean.”

climatehawk1

Jay M

fixing nitrogen, key technology for WW1 munitions and industrial ag
then, motorization, mobilizing a million little haber-bosch pressure vessels in a sense
carbon, major element in tires, asphalt fossil fuel
leading to AGW fueling an algae bloom in many locations
wonder if there will be the big domoic acid problem along most of the pacific littoral of north america again 2016

Cate

Agreed. I am learning to travel creatively. Experimental travel in my local area costs little to nothing. Armchair travel 21st-century style is surprisingly realistic and utterly green, and requires only internet connection these days, or a nearby library. Hassle-free travel! and you can learn as much, if not more, from this kind of travel as you can on an expensive real-time jaunt.

Colorado Bob

wili

I really this we should do our best to transition air transport as well. Aircraft running on biofuels, lighter than air vessels with solar cells and electric engines, hybrid aircraft and more efficient/ powerful electrical turbines and batteries should be a part of a big push here.

Abel Adamski

Researchers at Siemens have created a new prototype electric motor specifically designed for aircraft that weighs in at just 50 kg (110 lb) and is claimed to produce about 260 kW (348 hp) at just 2,500 RPM. With a quoted power five times greater than any comparable powerplant, the new motor promises enough grunt to get aircraft with take-off weights of up to 1,800 kg (2 ton) off the ground.

I think there will be a growing market for these kinds of innovations in the light weight and lighter than air soft and rigid hulled airframes segments. There’s a synergy between these and the electric ground transport vehicles segments that will eventually result in the ability to expand into medium and heavy weight airframes. Whoever manages to produce an efficient, light-weight electric turbine for a jet aircraft that’s able to run on batteries will have bridged the last hurdle in breaking captivity to fossil fuel use. At that point, it’s just a matter of economies of scale in place to drive down battery costs and push up energy density.

wili

Sorry. I know that there are some crucial trips. And that trips that effectively spread the word on GW or help create effective global agreements may be worth the extra carbon…

But until we come up with some much less damaging way to take long-distance trips (if we ever do), it seems to me that anyone who really gives any kind of a damn about the future of the living planet should forgo any such future travel, unless there is some unimaginably extreme need.

I seem to be in the vast minority in this, to me stunningly obvious, conclusion, though, for some reason. Am I missing something? Is there a flaw in my logic somewhere?

Individually, air travel greatly increases one’s own carbon emissions. As a measure of net global emissions, it’s currently about 3 percent. So if you’re just focused on individual action, then cutting air travel out is a huge benefit. If you’re looking at it as part of the systemic total, and from a policy point of view, it’s one of the smaller net emitters right now but one that could seriously come back to haunt you in the end if it keeps growing and keeps expanding fossil fuel use.

My opinion is that attacking scientists who take airplane trips to conduct research on climate change or to discuss such research is counter-productive. However, if a person decides to cut out air travel, I think we should praise this as a positive individual step that sets an example for the rest of us. I also think that a carbon tax should absolutely be applied to air travel as a means to limit its growth in carbon emissions and to speed a transition of air travel away from being a net positive carbon emitter.

In any case, the notion that biofuels are a publicity stunt is quite an overstatement. The world produces 2 million barrels per day of biofuels. The net carbon emissions from these biofuels is about 25 percent that of a comparable volume of fossil fuels (oil). In addition, this 2 million barrels a day would provide enough energy to run pretty much all of air transport as is. We could certainly point out instances where charlatans have taken advantage of biofuels and attempted to sell schemes that do not work. However, that’s a side-show to reality in the context of our discussion. The fossil fuel special interests appear very keen to attack biofuels at every opportunity. And it is my view that biofuels provide a liquid fuel carbon out for systems that cannot be electrified.

As the system that produces biofuels becomes decarbonized, as land use practices improve, and as new net zero carbon biofuels become available, the net carbon addition from biofuels will tend to drop toward and reach net zero. This is not to say that biofuels are ideal, but compared to fossil fuels they provide a much lower carbon out for air travel and a pathway for it to hit net zero if managed correctly. One that would necessarily be enhanced under any carbon tax regime. In addition, I think that new tech like increasingly energy dense batteries and novel forms of air travel may also help to alleviate carbon emissions from this source (as noted below).

Colorado Bob

Ryan in New England

I hate to even think of a day when we no longer have your contributions and insights, Bob. You may not have a fan base as large as Prince’s, but you damn sure are appreciated by a great many of us, and that obviously includes myself.

It’s incredible that it escaped notice for so long, but scientists have just discovered a massive, 9500 square-kilometre reef system at the mouth of the Amazon river. And it’s home to some truly bizarre life forms.

When we hear “reef”, we typically think colourful corals and crystal-clear tropical waters. Which is probably why nobody ever bothered to look for one at the outflow of the world’s largest river. Discharging up to 300,000 cubic metres of sediment-loaded water every second, the Amazon river generates a thick, smog-like plume that darkens the surrounding seafloor, depressing light and oxygen levels. So you can imagine the surprise of the scientists who discovered a large reef system — built mainly of sponges and algae — sitting right beneath it.

“More of these sorts of non-coral reefs have been discovered in recent years,” Fabiano Thompson, an oceanographer at the University of Brazil, told Gizmodo. “But we are not aware of this exact type of reef in other places. A special system has been formed here.”

I’ve been watching the news about the vulnerable Mosul Dam and it’s possible collapse — and the world’s reaction to it. The subject has been popping in and out of the news as the dam remains in danger.

It’s much like a scenario of a climate change event of widespread destruction, mass casualties and the irretrievable loss of natural resources.
The dam’s vulnerabilities do demand action — a proactive stance.
The climate also needs a proactive stance if we are to mitigate catastrophes.

The latest news has Italy arriving to try to spare the region from a huge catastrophe if the dam were to collapse. Other western nations including the UK and USA have played a part in the formation and disintegration of modern Iraq — with oil being the prize.
It is Italy that has arrived in Mosul.
We need an immediate global response in order to save the climate.
I sure hope the dam remains standing.

‘ A team of Italian soldiers and engineers has arrived at the site of the Mosul dam on the river Tigris to begin emergency repairs to the structure.

The soldiers arrived last Thursday, 14 April, and secured the area for the engineers, who arrived on Tuesday, 19 April, according to Iraqi news site NRT.

The urgency is due to the increasing pressure on the structure as winter snows melt in the mountains of Turkey and flow into the upstream lake. Normally this would be relieved by opening sluice gates, but these are jammed shut.

Meanwhile the physical integrity of the dam and its foundations is believed to be deteriorating.

The government of Iraq has signed a €273m ($296m) contract with Trevi Spa to reinforce and maintain the Mosul dam for 18 months. This contract was signed on 2 March after intensive negotiations, according to Italian news website Ansa. The tender was let in October last year.’

redskylite

Big apple trying hard and spending big, but some will have to move eventually . . the future is grim, but reality is slowly kicking in.
According to the U.K.’s University College London, New York spent $2.2 billion in preparation for climate change last year. More than any other city in the world. . . . . .

That’s a fraction of what the city expects to spend over the next few decades. With expectations of more frequent and intense rainy days, heat waves and flooding – New York is bracing for some rather bleak long-term weather changes.

Jeremy

redskylite

Tony Heller has an alias as Steven Goddard, a hardened denier. I wouldn’t even waste time reading his obfuscation shit, he is not worthy of your time. He implies that NASA & NOAA are in some crazy conspiracy, he is insane. Just look to the Japanese JMA for verification, do not waste time on Goddard. People like him have put is back too many decades already. Do not fall for his insane trickery.

DrFog

How can one refute something that is not even wrong? As Redskylite mentioned, one should try not to waste any time reading all that gibberish and cr*p, specially as there are so much more interesting things to read. The give-away sign of a delusional conspiracy seeker is when that blogger says this:

“This kind of mind-blowing malfeasance would get them fired and probably escorted out of the building by security at many engineering companies.”

Obviously this person never worked in a proper engineering company. Any big project involves a lot of people, including engineers, technicians, project managers, marketing, etc. It is almost impossible for one or two people to start deliberately deceiving all their colleagues without anyone noticing.

Another give-away sign is this quotation at the upper right corner of the blog page: “”Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” – Richard Feynman”, i.e, I don’t know if Richard Feynman really said or wrote that but it is revealing how this person regards other people that might know much more than he does in some subjects.

A blog is not a good place to refute science, he/she should instead really try to publish any useful findings in a peer reviewed paper and in the relevant science journal.

redskylite

Stop even listening or giving time, or giving face to people like Heller, Watts and the rest. They will bring us down. Just listen to the world, to what is news, to what is changing, to what is happening. To what academics are saying. Stop being influenced by charlatans. For Earth’s sake.

Jeremy

“North Western Australian coral reefs are now feeling the effect of the 2016 global coral bleaching event. Scientists aboard AIMS research vessel Solander at Scott Reef, an isolated coral reef system located 250 km off the northwest coast of Western Australia, are reporting 60-90% of corals in water depths of up to 15 m have bleached and that wide-spread mortality is already evident.”

Bill H

There seems to be a pattern here. In the Houston floods people were describing the rain “drops” as being the size of quarters, while the preceding hail storms in Texas were up to 10 cm in diameter. An increasingly powerful hydrological cycle seems to be producing bigger and bigger “drops”.

So you’ve got both more heat and more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increases peak potential convective energy and raises cloud heights. Higher clouds means more water and ice held aloft in the strongest storms. It basically creates a new ultra-heavyweight class for thunderstorms, rainstorms, snow, and hurricanes. Monster storms.

Colorado Bob

Once again I think of the Dinosaur National Monument. And just how hard can it rain ?
2 feet in hour? I saw all those huge animals piled up on that river bend.
It was a hell of a storm. It was a much warmer world. Where are we going ?
Back to the Jurassic ?

June

“One of the cool things coming out of Paris was the idea of moving from a ‘woe-is-me’ narrative to talking about the possibilities,” said Kathleen Rogers, president of the Earth Day Network. “This change of attitudes is where I think the momentum is. We are in motion.’’

Paris, if implemented, would get us moving in the right direction by cutting emissions and fast-tracking renewables. However, even all the current national commitments if implemented, would still result in warming of about 3 C by the end of this Century even without substantial carbon feedbacks from the Earth system. There are absolutely possibilities. But we should be very clear about the challenge and the need to build on the necessary process that Paris has started.

It’s also worth noting that any political set-backs such as a Trump election in the US could throw a wrench in the works. We should remain very strident. And we should understand that in the context of catastrophic consequences to climate change, in the context of mitigation, the Paris accord is a late start. But better late than never.

Colorado Bob

Every morning Aisha Nor rises at dawn to spend several hours gathering dry twigs from the scrubland around her home.

By selling them each week at the local market, she can earn just enough to buy sweet black tea to supplement her children’s daily bread ration. And that, in turn, may be just enough to keep them alive.

Colorado Bob

The aid worker’s desire for anonymity is yet another symptom of the touchiness that surrounds the aid issue in Ethiopia. Credible statistics about deaths related to the drought are rarely issued, yet humanitarian workers are notably careful about using words such as “famine” or “death”.

Scientists astonished to find 600-mile long reef under the muddy water in a site already marked for oil exploration
…
A huge 3,600 sq mile (9,300 sq km) coral reef system has been found below the muddy waters off the mouth of the river Amazon, astonishing scientists, governments and oil companies who have started to explore on top of it.

The existence of the 600-mile long reef, which ranges from about 30-120m deep and stretches from French Guiana to Brazil’s Maranhão state, was not suspected because many of the world’s great rivers produce major gaps in reef systems where no corals grow.

In addition, there was little previous evidence because corals mostly thrive in clear, sunlit, salt water, and the equatorial waters near the mouth of the Amazon are some of the muddiest in the world, with vast quantities of sediment washed thousands of miles down the river and swept hundreds of miles out to sea.

Syd Bridges

Thanks for yet another great post, Robert. The Arctic is falling apart before our eyes. Yet today, the CT SIA map and area graphs show an incredible increase of over 1.3 million square kilometers of ice since yesterday! Clearly a sensor is failing. So I’ve now started looking at the ice concentration maps from the University of Bremen. These do not show such a happy picture. The majority of the ice is breaking up and this is only April. Maslowski’s prediction of meltout of the Arctic as in 2016 +/- 3 years might be spot on. It will be interesting to see what the Uni-Bremen map looks like in a week’s time. Here is today’s map.

rustj2015

Against escalating warnings from climate scientists, President Obama is proposing new offshore oil drilling in the Gulf and the Arctic. We still have a chance to urge the President to take all new offshore drilling off the table. Submit a comment now.

Just this week, researchers reported new evidence that certain species of dinosaur were already on the way out before an asteroid crashed into Earth some 66 million years ago. But somehow, plenty of species managed to live through this cataclysmic event, and their modern relatives are absolutely thriving today.

And now a new study suggests that the secret to the survival of avian dinosaurs and the birds they evolved into was their appetite for seeds.

Abel Adamski

Landholders in Queensland are calling on the State Government to find the cause of methane gas bubbling in a major river, which they say has intensified in recent months.
The so-called methane seeps in the Condamine River near Chinchilla were reported in 2012, triggering a series of investigations.
But the Government has told the ABC that it does not have sufficient information to identify the cause of the seeps.

Professor Damian Barrett, the CSIRO’s lead researcher into unconventional gas, has been monitoring the Condamine gas seeps.
He confirmed to the ABC that the bubbling had intensified.
“There have been changes in the flux of methane through the river over the past 12 months,” he said.

The ABC visited the most prominent methane seep in the river about six kilometres west of the Chinchilla weir, observing large, concentrated bubbles rising to the water’s surface.
“From what I’ve visually seen since the first videos back when they were originally found, they were just minor bubbles in particular locations,” Helen Bender, whose family owns two properties near the Condamine, said.
“In terms of the number of bubbles along the river, both upstream and downstream, [it] is increasing.”

“We know that methane is coming to the surface along a fault line, a very small fault line that occurs and intersects with the river,” said Professor Barrett, who is also the director of the Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance, a partnership between the CSIRO and the CSG industry.

“We know that the methane that is bubbling in that river is varying in time and the reason for that — while it is unknown — could be perfectly natural.”

In times of Greatly reduced CSIRO funding
said Professor Barrett, who is also the director of the Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance, a partnership between the CSIRO and the CSG industry.

Research funded by the CSG Industry these days. More than one way to corrupt science, force it into prostitution

wili

“…carbon sinks turn into large-scale emitters in the next 30 or 40 years.”

“One of Scotland’s leading environmental experts has issued a dire warning that the world may be on the brink of irreversible “runaway” climate change.”

““I used to get criticised for scaring people about climate change, but I think there is a time and a place for that and a time for reassuring them that things can be done,” said Curran.

Theoretical projections produced for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had previously suggested the earth could continue to soak up carbon dioxide until around 2030, but would become a net emitter around the turn of the next century.

“One of the things I really wanted to do when I retired from Sepa was find out if you could detect this decline in the ability of the earth to soak up carbon dioxide. And sure enough, it turns out you can,” he said.

“By doing this study in 2016, when the peak occurred about ten years ago, I found there is just enough data to show that it’s very likely there has been a peak in the earth’s ability to soak up carbon dioxide and now it’s in decline.””

Cate

I think it’s pretty clear that the Earth System will be a net carbon emitter this Century. The question is — how far into the net positive emissions range will it go? I think it’s also pretty clear that the more carbon humans emit, the worse the situation becomes.

wili

Following its switch to a new system, the Alaska SeaLife Center is almost fully heated by seawater and carbon dioxide loop technology instead of fossil fuels.
…
The Alaska SeaLife Center (ASLC), a public aquarium, research center, and wildlife rehabilitation facility in Seward, Alaska, announced this week that it has successfully transferred 98 percent of its heat supply from fossil fuels to an alternative system that uses ocean water and carbon dioxide (CO2), a shift that the aquarium’s management hopes will lower operational costs and greenhouse gas emissions.
…
The new ASLC system was designed by Andy Baker, owner and project manager of the energy efficiency consulting firm YourCleanEnergy, and draws heat from the waters off nearby Resurrection Bay to warm a mixture of glycol and water. The heated glycol then comes into contact with liquid carbon dioxide, which then boils. The CO2 vapor is compressed to 2,000 psi, well beyond the compound’s critical pressure point, causing its temperature to rise. The hot CO2 is then used to heat water, which is pumped into the building’s heat loop.

If You Want to Convert a Climate Skeptic, Don’t Talk About Science
…
Enter Katherine Hayhoe. An atmospheric scientist, Hayhoe is perhaps best known for her efforts to spread the word on climate change to some of those least likely to accept the facts. She grew up a devout Christian, the child of evangelical missionaries, and is married to an evangelical pastor. She lives and teaches in fossil fuel-rich West Texas, where climate denial is, well, gospel.

– Decadence, ‘Escape’ and denial/avoidance via $$$ is also a part of this energy intensive operation. None of what they do here is marine dependent.
Just the scenery changes outside the portholes. All could be done in Las Vegas or some glorified Trump-Dump.
A good sociological look at an ugly operation though.

-The Norwegian Cruise Line ship the Escape contains a private area for the very rich called the Haven.

MIAMI — Behind a locked door aboard Norwegian Cruise Line’s newest ship is a world most of the vessel’s 4,200 passengers will never see. And that is exactly the point.

In the Haven, as this ship within a ship is called, about 275 elite guests enjoy not only a concierge and 24-hour butler service, but also a private pool, sun deck and restaurant, creating an oasis free from the crowds elsewhere on the Norwegian Escape.

‘… Trade winds carry the fine yellow dust of the Mongolian deserts eastward to China, the Korean Peninsula, Japan and, in much smaller amounts, the West Coast of the United States. It is an event that is particularly severe in the March-April months, accompanied by images of Asians wearing surgical masks, scarves and even respirators while going about their daily activities.

The annual blowing of the dust is natural. The massive amounts of industrial pollution that attach to the dust are not. If the dust is less than 2.5 micrometers in size — less than the width of a strand of hair — it enters our bloodstream directly after inhalation. On particularly bad days, residents of Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and all areas in between limit their outdoor activities, schools keep students indoors and all windows are closed airtight.’

– Link has many popups — best to avoid.
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160418000964

Palaeosol loess shed light on early Pleistocene climate in western arid central Asia

Famous for its deserts, arid central Asia (ACA) is one of the driest regions in the mid-latitudes and one of the main potential dust sources for the northern hemisphere. The mobilization, transportation, and deposition of Asian dust played an important role in global mineral dust cycles and had a prolonged and profound impact on global climate changes via direct effects on Earth’s radiative balance as well as by various indirect effects. Thus, reconstruction of the spatiotemporal history…https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/03/160330122641.htm

– #Dysturb a community that pastes the streets with photojournalism. I would like to see something like this that focuses on climate change induced events. One would have work very hard to ignore such publicly displayed evidence.
Idea: pair each event with a pertinent portrait (Sen. Lamar Smith) , or corporate logo (EXXON).
Propaganda for the common good.

Thanks, Ryan.
Most of the effort with the photos goes into making enlargements and physically pasting them up with eco friendly glues, and after careful and conscientious planning, etc.
Plus, there should be no shortage of documentary evidence to post.
DT

Ryan in New England

I thought this cartoon was accurate. Our disasters are becoming ever more frequent. Texas had two billion+ dollar disasters in just a couple of weeks. I think 2016 could have quite a lot of billion dollar disasters. In the US in 2015 there were 10 such events.

redskylite

Great cartoon . Cartoons can spell things out in a way that words fail . .

on the same track this report in the Guardian today .

World heading for catastrophe over natural disasters, risk expert warns

“The world’s failure to prepare for natural disasters will have “inconceivably bad” consequences as climate change fuels a huge increase in catastrophic droughts and floods and the humanitarian crises that follow, the UN’s head of disaster planning has warned.

Last year, earthquakes, floods, heatwaves and landslides left 22,773 people dead, affected 98.6 million others and caused $66.5bn (£47bn) of economic damage (pdf). Yet the international community spends less than half of one per cent of the global aid budget on mitigating the risks posed by such hazards. ”

Ryan in New England

This compliments Dt’s previous comment/link about sections of boats catering to the wealthy. A top executive of a major shale drilling company recently confirmed they try and keep their wells away from large homes and wealthy neighborhoods, partly because the residents could have the money to mount a legal challenge to the drilling operations.

Abel Adamski

Syd Bridges

I consider most countries as kleptocracies, in particular stealing from future generations, though the poor in their own countries and mineral-rich poor countries are also fair game. Many politicians aid and abet this rapine in exchange for a cut of the loot.

Ryan in New England

Off topic, but for anyone thinking Hillary isn’t that bad in regards to favoring big business and corporations, Charles Koch disagrees. He said a Clinton presidency would be better for his pro-business agenda than any of the Republican candidates.

redskylite

“Our study shows that this ice sheet becomes unstable and melts if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reach 600 parts per million—levels which may be reached by the end of the century if emissions reductions targets agreed to recently in Paris are not met,”

Colorado Bob

‘ The researchers used data about recent changes in shrub cover and empirical relationships between shrub height and growing season temperature to estimate that the average shrub height in 1860 was 1.1 meters.
By 2009, the average height of shrubs in Arctic Alaska was two meters, a great increase in the available forage above the snow that the moose can eat.’

Colorado Bob

Water color, phytoplankton growth in the Gulf of Maine are changing
Henry Bryant Bigelow’s century-old data compared with current conditions
Date:
April 21, 2016
Source:
Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
Summary:The amount of dissolved organic carbon from rivers emptying into the Gulf of Maine has increased over the last 80 years, a trend they predict will continue through 2100 if annual precipitation continues to increase, warn researchers. Runoff is changing the color of the seawater, reducing the light available to phytoplankton for photosynthesis, causing a decline in overall productivity.

Colorado Bob

Two volcanoes trigger crises of the late antiquity
International team of climate researchers reconstruct global cooling in the reign of emperor Justinian
Date:
April 19, 2016
Source:
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)
Summary:Contemporary chronicles, archaeological studies and physical evidence all point to severe climatic changes and ensuing social crises in the middle of the 6th century. New data from ice cores suggest that these events were caused by two major volcanic eruptions. An international team of scientists has reconstructed the effects using state-of-the-art climate models. As they present now the volcanic double event was likely the strongest volcanic driver of Northern Hemisphere climate over the past one and a half millennia.

Mblanc

I read a book by David Keys called ‘Catastrophe – An Investigation into the Origins of Modern Civilization’, about 15 years ago, pointing to this period as being crucial to our modern history. The cross-cultural evidence was very strong, even if the physical evidence was not present at that time.

Colorado Bob

(Bloomberg) — Eleven months ago, Houston had a deadly flood. This week, the city had another.

Events like these are often called “ 100-year floods,” and that can be misleading. The U.S. government began using the term in the 1960s to describe a flood that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year, not a chance of happening only once a century. It’s statistical probability — and that can change over time.

“Over the span of 30 years, which is the length of many people’s mortgages, there is a once in four chance it is going to happen,” said Mari Tye, a project scientist in the mesoscale and microscale meteorological laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. “Over 100 years, there is a 67% chance.”

Colorado Bob

He sat on an outdoor stage along with an Italian priest who has courageously denounced Naples-area mobsters for systemically dumping toxic waste on local farmland in a lucrative, illicit operation often serving legitimate businesses.

The pope told the audience that money has become a god “at the center of the world.”

Abel Adamski

wili

Abel, if your intention is to share information rather than just to frustrate readers, please avoid linking paywalled sites, or if you do, please indicate clearly what in the content you want to share. Thank you.

Abel Adamski

The car doesn’t have Tesla’s huge touchscreens and gizmos, but it’s reliable, as fast as a gas-powered car, and will take you to your destination, he said. It has since taken him 12,500 miles, he told me, no repairs needed, and will run for 100 miles on just $1.80 and a six-hour charge.

Colorado Bob

– As I’ve mentioned here before, “I always note the quality of the air in any landscape photo I come across.” This me a lot about local air sheds, and the health of the regional atmosphere as well.

I became alarmed a number of years ago when I noticed how quickly after a rain event that the sky would lose its crisp clean look — and become unclean.
Historically, it would take months for the sky to lose its purity. Then it took weeks. Then only days. Then hours. Then minutes, or instantaneous — as it is now. Or, most important, as the atmosphere fills with moisture and particulate — the sky is chronically steamy looking.

– The Twitter photo here comes from a article about water jurisdictions, etc. in the Southwest. The air is thick, and looks dirty and steamy. More often than not, this condition can be seen in many news photos.

– ‘…negotiators are moving toward a major agreement triggering cuts in Colorado River water deliveries to Southern and Central Arizona…’

redskylite

That’s very observant of you – reminds me of life in the U.K driving northwards from the rural Southwest – once I hit the industrial midlands the whole sky developed a very noticeable dirty haze (every time). Not been back for a long while don’t know if it is still like that. A lot of industry closed down in the Maggie Thatcher years.

Cate

We spent several years in the UK recently and noticed, driving around, that the sky near the horizon was always brownish. I attributed this mostly to dust and gunk kicked up by traffic, construction, and agriculture, and probably whatever manufacturing is left in Britain? So not necessarily dangerous for climate or people, but still. The thing is, it’s what you’re breathing at ground level because where you’re living is someone else’s horizon. Exceptions: the glorious champagne air of NW Scotland.

redskylite

A good example where journalism has been sadly lacking and is required (and should bear a duty) to highlight some of the wrongs in the fight against climate change. Well pointed out by Radio NZ.

He told Mediawatch he was alarmed the media did little to bring the apparent rorting of New Zealand’s emissions trading scheme to public attention while it was still going on.

“Carbon trading is rife with scams. Journalists should be surveying the scene for developments we need to know about. It should have been the responsibility of journalists to tell that story and make it interesting,” said Prof Hackett, from Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada.

Abel Adamski

Date:
November 10, 2011
Source:
American Chemical Society
Summary:
Strange, stranger, strangest! To the weird nature of one of the simplest chemical compounds — the stuff so familiar that even non-scientists know its chemical formula — add another odd twist. Scientists are reporting that good old H2O, when chilled below the freezing point, can shift into a new type of liquid.

relevance you say.
They found that when they chilled liquid water in their simulation, its propensity to conduct heat decreases, as expected for an ordinary liquid. But, when they lowered the temperature to about 54 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, the liquid water started to conduct heat even better in the simulation. Their studies suggest that below this temperature, liquid water undergoes sharp but continuous structural changes whereas the local structure of liquid becomes extremely ordered — very much like ice. These structural changes in liquid water lead to increase of heat conduction at lower temperatures.

East Antarctica has some further twists in the ice, just what it all means we shall find out

Abel Adamski

In the meantime, Obama is pushing a deal that will sanction and promote further assaults on the biosphere and exacerbate AGW: the TTIP.
The deal will not be ratified during his final year but Obama hopes the groundwork is being “laid for his successor to finalize the deal”. My guess for who he wants to be his successor is Hillary Clinton since she has done nothing but support trade deals and has flip flopped on TTIP. Sanders has always vehemently opposed TTIP and has opposed other trade deals as well.

We can talk all day about all the horrors of what is happening to life on earth, we can continue to repeat over and over again that fossil fuels must remain in the ground BUT if deals like this are pushed through and signed off on by leaders who people choose to vote for ——those words are just words and the dying of life on earth at the hands of humans will continue:
“The European Commission has admitted that TTIP represents a danger to biodiversity, natural resources and the environment.” http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/there-is-no-eu-solution-to-climate-change-as-long-as-ttip-exists-a6763641.html

dnem

I agree Caroline. There is no GLOBAL (much less EU) solution to climate change that accommodates the massive and growing international consumption economy. Period. Yes, renewables can power a perfectly workable, and to my mind preferable, far smaller, simpler and more localized new economic order. Growing out a renewable infrastructure to somehow power the current global economic order is not only likely impossible (especially in the vanishing time we have remaining), but even if it could solve the carbon problem, it would leave myriad, unsustainable, and ultimately catastrophic externalities in place. Small, simple, local, distributed, meaningful! That’s the mantra.

Renewables are not wholly compatible with the current economic order. It’s not as easy to concentrate wealth through renewables as it is through fossil fuels. However, we should be very clear that renewables do not alleviate the problems inherent to human greed. And there will almost certainly be struggles related to that terrible innate flaw for a long time to come.

Renewables do change the geopolitical order. They do provide the poorer nations of the world with the opportunity for both electricity and a prevention of the ongoing destruction and degradation of their lands and habitats. They do provide a multitude of opportunities for new players to enter the global energy field. They do provide communities and states and nations with the ability to localize their power sources and to throw off the yoke of international energy dominance. They do remove a number of triggers for global conflict. They do help to liberate the captive consumer from fossil fuels. And they do provide clean energy without the weaponizing threat of nuclear systems. They assist in the provision of opportunities for more healthy land use and are a part of how human beings could help to heal the harm they have inflicted upon the world. In the end, they are currently our best weapon against ramping harm due to ongoing human fossil fuel emissions — one that also provides the opportunity for re-localization of energy sources on a scale never seen before. We should be very clear that they are extraordinarily helpful in this regard. But individuals, communities and governments will need to work hard to allow a truly democratic and egalitarian new system to emerge.

The TTIP in its current form should be seen as wholly counter to these goals. The fact that some politicians, including the President, appear to have been hypnotized by the amount of money and influence being thrown around in support of this deal need to think long and hard about consequences. Because this is the kind of nonsense that has already gotten us into so much trouble from the 1970s on. They are the very outgrowth of business as usual thinking — economic dominance games that are not compatible with healthy human systems. There is good reason why the people of America do not support these trade deals. We have seen the harm first hand and we do not want them any more.

I don’t think there’s anyone who’s well aware of what’s going on with climate change that supports the TTIP, at least not here. I certainly don’t and I do think that gaining more of an understanding about what’s happening in our world drives home the fact that we absolutely do not need or want these kinds of negative policies. International trade agreements should rise to the standard of not promoting harm on a global scale, of working to reduce net carbon emissions, and to aid in the health and well-being of local communities rather than opening them up for exploitation by international corporations. Beneficial trade, in other words, should be conducted without feeding the beast.

The problem with these trade agreements is that they arise out of a neo-liberal ideological subset that views the world in a certain way — that increasing wealth concentration among the new ‘East India Trade’ conglomerates and those who profit from them is the goal. And we can provide a pretty clear link between the degradation of the health of local communities, the loss of economic strength for entire regions all to serve the demon of wealth concentration and greed, and the endless expansion of these malicious trade deals.

We need to re-think the way we do trade. If, for example, the impact of this most recent deal is to create another fossil-fuel fed wealth concentration engine, then the world just can’t manage it. We’ve got far too much carbon in the atmosphere already. We need policies that will protect and enhance the vitality of local communities, not continue to work from the loot and pillage model that has already gotten us into so much trouble.

dnem

– “Renewables are not wholly compatible with the current economic order. It’s not as easy to concentrate wealth through renewables as it is through fossil fuels.”

Right, Robert. Very key.
Plus, much of the media (Where many get, or expect, info in order to make critical decisions.) relays all things fossil fuel whether via content, or adverts.
If wealth is concentrated in a very small percentage of the population — so is media ownership, only even more concentrated.

Excellent points Robert. Thank you.
This is a very moving, informative video—- it is a brief overview of the destructive, secretive trade agreements and the people throughout the world who are fighting them. Yes, some Bernie Sanders clips in this too (pretty obvious who I’m supporting!):

– NA USA West Snowpack (A concern of mine, as cool melt-water runoff during the summer months is the lifeblood of our rivers, and all that inhabit or depend on for survival.
– I was afraid of this — as April is ready to turn to May. We shall see.

‘Snowpack is melting fast, despite April storms’

It has dwindled faster than experts have seen in nearly four decades, which could upset reservoir management.

Throughout late March and into April, much of the West experienced unseasonably warm days. Then, in late April, temperatures plummeted in Southwest Colorado’s San Juan Mountains and more than 2 feet of wet, heavy spring snow fell. Suddenly, ski boots were out again and for a day or two, it felt like winter was back.

But those storms have only helped a small fraction of the West, with much of the moisture buoying snowpack levels along the Eastern Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming. Meanwhile, the rest of the region is on the opposite trajectory, losing snowpack at record-breaking rates.

At the beginning of April, snowpack levels across the region were “near normal” …

But in just the few short weeks since, that snow is melting faster than climate hydrologists have seen in nearly four decades, bringing the snowpack far below normal in most states in the West.

– High temperatures and low moisture in most of the region has diminished snowpack — more quickly than hydrologists have seen happen in a one-month period in nearly four decades.
NRCS, National Water and Climate Center.

Colorado Bob

Date:
April 25, 2016
Source:
University of Southampton
Summary:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was the major driver behind the global climatic shifts that occurred between 53 and 34 million years ago, according to new research.

June

“In short, the study’s results support the idea that microbialization associated with increasing algae cover in coral reefs can decimate the reef ecosystem through microbial takeover.

Metagenomics shows us that microbes on algal-covered reefs are less efficient recyclers of carbon, short circuiting the transfer of organic matter to higher organisms like fish…

As overfishing and eutrophication are two of the leading causes of increased algal cover, humans should be concerned about how their actions both directly and indirectly impact one of the world’s most important ecosystems, the researchers concluded.”

Spike

You were bang on the money about the UK Robert – I’ve just returned from a week in the North Pennines, out of internet access, and yesterday was forced off the hills by a freezing wind from the NW, and snow with very poor visibility. We had foolishly put our winter coats away the week before. Coming back today it was cold, raining furiously, and thunderstorms were prominent.

Thanks to your educational blog I remarked to my companion that I suspected this was another jet stream related weather event and that the Arctic was probably unusually warm. Very sad to see spring flowers and breeding birds suffer in this unseasonable weather, perhaps another means by which climate disruption will slam our ecosystems.

Cheers, Spike and thanks so much for the eyewitness accounts. Sorry you were caught out in that mess. Wish we’d gotten word to you before you left.

Yeah, every time we have these big warm air invasion events it’s pretty likely that the Jet Stream is going to start doing some barrel rolls and setting off pretty serious weather events. Jeff Masters provided some great coverage of related extreme weather and big hail in the US this week. But the forecast for Europe to me looked downright odd. More James Hansen Storms of My Grandchildren kind of stuff.