Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

J. Eli Margolis

Estimating state instability is more than warning. It is a structured analysis of instability types, their likelihood and potential impact on US national interests, and their most likely and most dangerous manifestations. This kind of analysis goes beyond determining probabilities. It also structures scenarios and evaluates the potential impact of events.

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