BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

zoomster
Posted Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 9:06 am | Permalink
The Coalition was careful not to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs during the term of the last government by opposing action which might have stopped the boats.

So is it in their best interests now to do so?

If they ‘Stop the Boats’, then in a couple of years time, fear of boats will have subsided and the focus for the issue – if there is any at all – will shift once again to the treatment of detainees.

Without ‘the boats’ to distract them (and ‘boat people’ to blame for taking their jobs, causing traffic jams, forcing Coles to sell halal meat, stealing disabled parking places and whatever other Bad Thing boat-detesters have experienced this week) people are going to be looking – and journalists reporting – on other matters to do with the government’s performance.

That thought has crossed my mind too. Of course the coalition would argue that only they can maintain it and that a Labor government would open the flood gates again. But Labor has already demonstrated their determination to stop the boats with the Malaysia solution and especially the PNG solution, so come the next election, all they really need to say is “me too” and then focus on the mountain of ammunition they will have acquired by then to use against the government.

An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter. He’s building for himself a healthy catalogue of examples showing his approach to what can and can’t be discussed is arbitrary and self-serving.

The method used by the Coalition allows them to control the release of (dis)information.

Darn and zoomster assume that with the boats “stopped” the Coalition will have no ammunition. davidwh the other day suggested that they will declare the boats stopped when it is politically convenient. I think both may be backward.s

“Stopped” doesn’t mean absolutely no boats. Nor does it mean none setting sail – the standard set for the Labor government – now it just means none reaching our shores or ears. Abbott has already declared success.

There will still be boats but whether we hear about them or not will be at the convenience of the Coalition. At least that’s the game we can expect them to try on the Australian public given the Coalition’s past success at manipulating the issue.

Lynchpin I give limited credence to unconfirmed reports from anonymous Indonesian officials probably less than I even give to Morrison. Having said that politicians seldom lie directly about something that can be confirmed.

An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter. He’s building for himself a healthy catalogue of examples showing his approach to what can and can’t be discussed is arbitrary and self-serving.

He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers.

The Australian people have given him a mandate to stop the boats and that’s exactly what he is doing.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Todd Smith said yesterday was on par with the coolest January day in Darwin's recorded weather history

Not even Hobart - a perpetually wet and icy place - was a match for the Top End capital when it came to snatching the title of the country's chilliest capital city of the day.

The weather bureau's maximum temperatures yesterday were Adelaide (45.1C), Melbourne (42.8C), Canberra (37.6C), Hobart (30.3C), Brisbane (30.2C), Sydney (27.5C), Perth (26.7C). Darwin was at the bottom of the list with a top of just 25.7C.

Lynchpin I give limited credence to unconfirmed reports from anonymous Indonesian officials probably less than I even give to Morrison. Having said that politicians seldom lie directly about something that can be

Can’t think of any reaSon certainly not anything he has done that would make anyone rate Morrison as trustworthy. Don’t you lie to the population whenever it suits you in war?

Pretty well all politicains deceive by saying things in such a way as to create the wanted perception but with sufficient wriggle-room to deny that was what they intended to imply. That’s Politics 101. However to answer a specific question with yes/no response is another matter. There is little wriggle-room then.

Key has an advantage, which I do not like. He could easily be a Labour Prime Minister. He occupies the same part of the political spectrum as Helen Clark. National has kept all Labour’s income transfers and increased the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest New Zealanders. Who believes Labour would not have done a deal to build an Auckland Convention Centre, the broadband fibre rollout or to have the Avatar movies made here?

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Sounds familiar

Then there are the press gallery journalists, who believe if another journalist has said it then it must have credibility. But repeating nonsense does not make it sensible.

CTar we generally argue a lot about what is a lie or not. Personally I think there are just levels of deception ranging from outright lying to misleading people. Politicians do it very well but generally try to avoid the outright lie they may get caught out on.

Education Minister Christopher Pyne says more experts can be called in to help review the national school curriculum.

The Government recently announced that former teacher Kevin Donnelly and academic Ken Wiltshire will conduct the review, which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.

At the time, Mr Pyne said it was unnecessary to have a committee working on the review.

However, he has today confirmed Dr Donnelly and Professor Wiltshire will have the power to bring in experts to help review different education areas.

I”ve friends who have gone to a son’s 40th birthday in Adalaide and they took a caravan…finding it unliveable there and spending days in a shopping centre as the son’s appartment is not ready and he’s with friends till it is
and the long drive home in such heat is daunting too

It’s too late to change the culture now, but look at other European nations which live with heat, for example. Our inflexibility also works against more family-friendly (especially female-friendly) working hours.