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Danny
:

I think there are two main scenarios:

1. China suffers the same implosion than USSR and its divided among 3 to 5 regions like: Han China, Tibet and Xinjiang Uyghur (maybe also Manchuria and an Inner Mongolia that returns to Mongolia) having a special relationship like the one with Russia, Ucrania and so on. This case is, nevertheless, very radical and the conditions nowdays are not the same as when USSR fall, besides may cause a lot of bloodshred like in the former USSR that to this day still has ethnic conflicts like Crimea, and before Georgia, and Chechenya, etc. So I don’t think is the best option nor for Tibet nor for everybody else.
2. China becames democratic, maybe a federation. I think a Tibet living under a democratic system with real autonomy and an elected government, Tibetan representation in the Parliament, the return of the Dalai Lama and other leaders as citizens of the country, etc., probably will give some stability, and with some luck maybe a referendum on Tibet’s independence can be peacefully held.

The problem with the second option is if happen the same as happen in Russia, in were Putin basically changed the old regime for a new nationalist, conservative, authoritarian regime, which can also happen in a future democratic China.
I do agree, generally no one-party system last more than 70 years, like Mexico and Russia, but the secueles of authoritarianism remains, as we can see in Putin’s government and to lesser extend to Mexico’s Peña Nieto.

This is all speculation but a collapse in China could bring freedom for Tibet. It happened once before in 1912-13. It happened for Eastern Europe, Central Asia & Mongolia when the USSR collapsed in 1991. But we Tibetans must be prepared for that day which could happen sooner than expected. One party states don't last past 70 or so years like USSR & in Mexico. The CCP is in its 6th decade of rule. That is why it's so important the TGIE not give up on the goal of independence.