Goes into maths to demonstrate results of gambit analysis. Thinks Vicarin won't let it go. Sceptical of Vicarin's reasoning for knowing multi-ball. Explains her past scum read of Vicarin. Points out more issues with Vicarin's comments. Notes that she got roped into a time waster. Guesses Vicarin scum partners not in BF/Sabrar/Mark/somitomi. Invites Vicarin to do analysis of past games himself. Encourages Sabrar not to do the analysis for him. Prods Vic for reads. Posts reads list: BF not scum; HA will re-evaluate; Madge being Madge-like; Mark newbie town vibe; moody suspicious; uneasy about mpolo; town lean on plytho; town Sabrar; town leaning somitomi; Vicarin scum. Thinks Mark is actively contemplating content. Asks Madge for more pro-town behaviour. Invites Vicarin to demonstrate a triple-voter, whilst responding to various of his other comments. Doesn't like Vicarin's trying to fish for opinions on her. Raises various concerns with Vicarin, with main points being bringing up past analyses and inviting others to prepare a scum case on her.

I'm thinking about bessie's read on Vicarin, and I can't help but feel that she spent way too much time trying to prove Vicarin wrong. In particular, I don't particularly like how much she dwelt on past games to demonstrate this, rather than the current game. Admittedly, Vicarin was in part at fault too, but bessie was too stubborn to let it go (something which she later acknowledges herself a bit). Now, she didn't solely focus on Vicarin, but it did take up a lot of her playing time, it seems, and it does take two to have an argument. Later on, I'm starting to get a vibe from her that she's getting touchy at being scum read by him. My instinct is that this would be more likely to come from scum!bessie than town!bessie.

I don't think she's a scum-buddy of Mark. She's giving him too much help, which I think some of would be in scum chat. I do like one or two of her comments, such as noting plytho's switch of vote towards Vicarin instead of Madge. A lot of her content is similar to how I'm used to with bessie, but it's been proven that bessie is able to play scum very similarly to how she plays town. Overall, I have a scum lean on her, but it's not massively strong.

BoomFrog/ConMan:

Spoiler:

D1: RVS Sabrar. Guesses me town for skipping D1. Claims scum. Asks if anybody is actually town. Asks somitomi, moody, Vicarin about their alignment claims. Votes Vicarin (RV?). Votes mpolo for being boring. Prods Sabrar over his thoughts re. bessie mistake. Encourages plytho and somitomi to explain no town claim. Likes plytho paying attention. mpolo/moody taking him too seriously. Switches vote to Vicarin. Asks Vicarin to explain his vote on him. Points out to moody that he and Sabrar were joking. Declares scum, was fishing for reactions. Encourages plytho to pressure Vicarin. Thinks mpolo behaviour fits town!mpolo, and that unlikely to be on small scum team. Suspicious of Vic/Madge/Mark for jumping on him. Explains further thoughts why Vic is scum. Further defends town!mpolo comments (wagon too easy). Multiball likely. Thinks Vic more likely scum than mpolo. Posts Vic/mpolo/Mark as bottom three. Suggests mpolo has knowledge of multiple scum teams. Asks moody for Sabrar scumminess/Vic town reasons. Considers withholding gambit findings due to town powers being shown up. Prods moody over jester comments, and asks for further explanations over Sabrar being voteable. Hammering would look super scummy. Confident Madge behaviour is just Madge being Madge. Asks why HA suspects indie!Sabrar. Eventually explains placing him in scummy pile. Invites Madge to vote him temporarily. Explains "Madge being Madge" thoughts. Encourages plytho and moody to vote for Madge or Vicarin. Explains case on Vicarin.

D2: CM. Claims NK was redirected from him. Votes Sabrar and FoSses others over mistaken assumption that NK redirected from BF killed Mark. Has information on large number of redirections.

One major thing that sticks out to me is that BoomFrog goes from mpolo being townie to being one of his bottom three. What happened to his suspicions of Madge? I kind of get his case on Vicarin, but the vibe of how he presents it just rubs me the wrong way, in particular in this post:

Even if Sabrar is wrong, he's arguments are certainly not ridiculous. His points are at the very least reasonable and worth considering. Look at Vicaran's tone for the last few pages. It's extremely confrontational. A townie would be doing final analysis and trying to stay objective. He is on the attack and fighting desperately in every direction. Much more like scum who has been caught D1, again, and desperately wants to at least live one more day so as to reduce the shame of being caught D1 two games in a row.

I said earlier that this kind of gambit feels like it could easily come from scum!BF ("haha, let's claim scum outright D1, when everybody will dismiss it - it will be hilarious"). ConMan, meanwhile, hasn't said much, regarding his opinions, apart from a very misguided vote on Sabrar and FoS on lots of others. His information may prove useful, but then again, could even be a complete lie. Or it could be truthful and still come from scum. I do however think that town!ConMan is more likely to claim this than scum!ConMon. Despite that, overall, I'm leaning scum here too.

It's hard to read heuristically_alone when he has so little content. This is mostly a meta read, but his little content doesn't feel like typical town!heuristically_alone, which, as somebody else mentioned in a previous game, tends to be more jovial. In particular, his comment on mpolo's defeatism didn't come across that way. He also has a 5 out of 12 player scum list, which is a lot (although the way this reads list is going, I'm wondering if mine is going to look similar...). Slight scum lean.

Madge:

Spoiler:

D1: Has no read early, but excited. Votes bessie, for not being on her side. Wants bessie/BF/Sabrar to survive long enough to make sense of things. Sheeps Sabrar to vote mpolo. Embracing chaos to make D1 fun. Wonders if BF allowed to claim town. Terrified town is in the minority. Sheeping Sabrar because he is better at scum hunting. Prefers to hold off on bottom 3 list. Waiting until D2 when she has more info. Unvotes and claims not serious about sheeping Sabrar. Needs to wait until overnight stuff to make decisions. Self-votes, then votes Mark. Thinks jester lynch would not end game. Doesn't want to confuse people by RPing this game. Being chaotic because confident. Suggests looking more seriously at mpolo being at L-1. mpolo being scum at L-1 would be null tell. Claims her posts would not be different because she is town. Claims some method in her madness. Votes BoomFrog (without explanation). Claiming scum D1 is scummy.

D2: Hopes only one team. Votes Sabrar because of his suggestion that there's no mafia A. Likes my points over dead-dead vs mostly dead. Hypothesis is 2 teams. Thinks Sabrar and bessie have same alignment (vibe). Switches vote to bessie with no explanation. Speculates reasons for alignments being hidden. Trying to focus on being helpful. Switches vote to Sabrar. Thinks bessie/Sabrar equally likely to be scum (i.e. not very). Thinks they are co-aligned. Doesn't like Sabrar's suggestion that we lynch her and somebody else. Sabrar's hinted power is scummy.

Okay, so there's a bit more content from Madge than I remember there being, but not much more. In particular, I don't understand her inconsistency on bessie/Sabrar, saying that she doesn't think they're very likely to be scum, but appears to be happy to vote for either of them. She's said nothing about anybody else all day, aside from a brief reference to one or two things people have said, but certainly no noteable opinions on anybody. I feel sad about voting her off (for unrelated-to-game reasons), but I think she's my top scum pick so far, and I don't see my reads of the remaining players affecting that.

It's getting late, and I don't have time for the others, so I'll do moody, plytho, somitomi and Sabrar tomorrow. My gut has generally town reads of all 4 of them. If forced to guess, I'd say that we could still have 4-5 scum left, so I don't think 4 scum reads is all that unreasonable.

I will get back to this shortly, I'll have to reread some things this evening. What I know is the two people I considered scummiest are dead without a flip and the one person I was about to file under "newbie town" flipped scum.

Ugh, I am so completely in the fucking blind it's actually terrifying and it's getting late, so I'm going to have to do that tomorrow.

Another thing I've been working on is possible mates for Mark (based on posts before his flip)

bessie, heury, Sabrar explicitly read him as town

mpolo and yours truly didn't categorize him

plytho and Vicarin put him in the middle (plytho later moved him down)

BoomFrog and moody put him into his bottom three

Madge voted him

I don't yet know what to read into this information, although I don't think anyone in the bottom two groups are his buddies. The best hiding place for his buddies in case of a flipl would be a neutral read or not categorising him (shouldn't have said that ). However that's sort of wine-ish and his death was a surprise anyway, so that's not ruling the first group out. This proved less useful than I hoped...

Spoiler:

bessie wrote: Adding somitomi to my list of people with magic powers.

If removing windows from the hinges and hauling them into the garage is magic, then yes, I am magic.

I'm very disappointed about how people are reacting to my earlier behaviour - not my caps lock stuff about billy joel / Sabrar's plan, the stuff before that. I wish you guys would give me the benefit of the doubt sometimes!

But I can't talk my way out of this one, so.... I suppose it's time to claim!

I'm vanilla town.

No, I won't be changing my claim.

No, this isn't some sort of joke.

No, I won't be participating in speculation about what my role *really* is, because my only answer will be "yes, I am really vanilla town". I'm sure everyone will discuss amongst themselves because I wouldn't believe me, but I don't have the time or inclination to go into a debate about this, and I definitely don't have the ability to convince anyone that I'm really truly vanilla town, unless we have a rolecop who can investigate me and prove it once and for all, and then do you really want to prove the vanilla town person?

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Also, these redirects have me curious. I like thinking about powers and interactions, is the person who had a list of redirects able to share anything at all? It would suck if they died and a cop wasn't able to know what their target really was, just to future proof, and scum probably wants us to be confused.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Madge wrote:is the person who had a list of redirects able to share anything at all? It would suck if they died and a cop wasn't able to know what their target really was, just to future proof, and scum probably wants us to be confused.

Well that was my point as well but ConMan hasn't been online for the past 2 days.Do you have a post-restriction?

A combination of the assignment I have due (STOP PROCRASTINATING MADGE) and my lack of confidence in my own reads. I think I need to play a hydra game with you or Bessie or someone to learn how to get my groove back... of course then you all will say that I should just roleplay bessie 25/8 because I did fine then, and I will cry at the thought.

I'm happy to give reads, if I don't have to explain them. You all know that explanations not my forte. I just get the vibe of the thing, man!

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Madge wrote:I'm very disappointed about how people are reacting to my earlier behaviour - not my caps lock stuff about billy joel / Sabrar's plan, the stuff before that. I wish you guys would give me the benefit of the doubt sometimes!

You implied that we would see great things from you on D2, and you weren’t lynched, so I think people were giving you the benefit of the doubt. Now it’s D2, where’s the content we were promised? All you’ve done is RVS vote between people you’re not even scum reading.

Madge wrote:I think I need to play a hydra game with you or Bessie or someone to learn how to get my groove back... of course then you all will say that I should just roleplay bessie 25/8 because I did fine then, and I will cry at the thought.

Madge, this has nothing with anyone wanting you to play the game a certain way. I don’t want you to change. But I think that you also need to acknowledge that these are legitimate concerns apart from your meta.

Madge wrote:I'm happy to give reads, if I don't have to explain them. You all know that explanations not my forte. I just get the vibe of the thing, man!

You’re an experienced player, why are you making us beg for content? Just throw whatever you have out there. Are you worried that you are going to appear scummy, and since when have you ever worried about appearing scummy over doing what you could to help town (when you’re town)?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FWIW, Madge MAY be vanilla town, but if that's what her role PM states, I actually expect there to be something hidden in her role that she doesn't know about.

And Madge shouldn’t need this pointed out to her. I find it hard to believe VanillaTown!Madge didn't consider this possibility.

Very quickly and on my phone and I really shouldn't make weekend promises.

Weird stuff about bessie: somitomi's statement re:multiple mafia teams seemed perfectly clear to me and I don't see how bessie could misunderstand it.

bessie wrote:Are you not following my prodding of jimbob along similar lines? If we are in multiball, scum can legitimately scumhunt.

I wasn't really following but you sound defensive on this and I'm not sure why. Yes scum can scum hunt and town can make mistakes, that doesn't mean we can't infer things from your vote based on the flip.

Gotta go. I don't recall any weirdness from jimbob. Tomorrow I definitely will have time so I'll get that jimbob read and a proper list and vote.

On my way past, I skimmed Mark's content, and didn't get much other than he isn't likely Madge's buddy, and this post feels like he was supplied the suggestion by somebody:

Mark_Cangila wrote:

Bessie wrote:So go ahead and link one and I’ll concede that you are correct and I am wrong.

I don't like this. It reminds me of Vicarin's wasting of your time in WOT3. Please explain how it is different, or more acceptable than Vicarin's wasting of your time.

(apologies to Mark if it was genuinely from your own memory). It doesn't feel like something that would stick in most people's minds, unless they're one of those players who keeps copious notes (e.g. bessie), or one of those who was involved (bessie or Vicarin)... actually, now that I write this, this maybe gives a +1 to a Mark/bessie team (which I previously discounted... urrghhh...). Am I being unreasonable in thinking that there aren't many people who would remember that from the start of the previous game?

In depth read-through of mpolo and Sabrar. Never seen Sabrar as scummy, and feels like he's acting townie now. Thinks mpolo flipping scum gives town credit to Sabrar. Confused default read on Vicarin is scummy. Re-reads Vicarin: enough to prevent townie read, but not enough to make him scummier than mpolo. Responds to bessie read of Vicarin being active lurking.

D2: Nothing to report. Points out Mafia A/B could be SK. Did not have time to re-review unknowns. Madge definitely votable end of D1. Puts HA in votables after review. Most of remaining players has strong town read on. Asks about faction elimination/MYLO/LYLO announcement. Explains his general thoughts on possible setup, and asks whether we should assume more scum or not. Responds to my comments pointing out alternatives he hasn't considered (didn't occur to him). Currently happy to lynch Madge and somebody else.

@moody:

moody7277 wrote:6(town)-2(mafia)-2(mafia #2)-1(jester)-1(jimbob)

What did you mean by putting me separately back early D1 here?

A gut feeling I get from the first part of this response discussing BoomFrog and Sabrar's scum claims, is that moody is deliberately hedging whether or not there is actually town. This would not come from town!moody, but I feel better about it later, because he does clarify that he would normally be wagonning scum claims, which would seem an unlikely statement to make if he was hedging-scum.

Aside from that, I don't find anything particularly objectionable from him. A couple of things give me a townie feel for him (e.g. asking about faction elimination), and I kind of like how his progression on different players is progressing. I'd like to see an updated reads list, but leaning town for now.

I've gone through mpolo's posts too, although not as in depth. I don't get the early pressure on him - his comments around jester seem to make sense to me. The tone of his posts that others have labelled defeatism I kind of get as simply pure frustration that people are misrepresenting/misinterpreting him, rather than as scum-giving-up. I also reject bessie's claim (and others?) that mpolo wasn't trying to help/was active lurking for most of D1. Yes, in posts 5-7 he seems to have given up, but they cover less than 2 days worth of posting. He posts reads on bessie, Madge, Sabrar, Vicarin, and a non-read on Mark in post 8, and re-read Vicarin, plytho, and Madge in post 10, also posting thoughts on BoomFrog there too.

D2: Comments on flips, suggests we can look for Mark's buddies. Assumes Mafia C killed mpolo; points out the "C" might be a red-herring. Asks who gains by killing mpolo. BoomFrog makes more sense as a target than mpolo. Explains reasons for why he thinks Mafia C killed mpolo. Interested by my zombie-theory and ConMan's claim. Mark similar content level and style to previous games. Knows not to jump to conclusions. Explains the mpolo case (partly incorrectly). Asks leading "do you think that's townie behaviour" comment. Surprised by my town read of mpolo. Thinks BoomFrog was trying to influence Mark into a Vicarin vote. Looks at links to Mark/reads list: somitomi maybe a little weird; some suspicion of Sabrar; still liking moody; Madge could be scummy; doesn't know what to do about HA lurking; Conman townie. Comments on usefulness of getting more from ConMan/randomness of redirection. Happy to lynch Madge and somebody else. bessie sounds defensive. No recall of weirdness from me.

First thing that stood out to me was plytho's vote on mpolo went without any actual explanation from joke to being serious. I also find his late switch to Vicarin a little weird given what else he said, but I haven't looked at everything in context, so I'm not putting too much stock in it. I would like him to explain this though:

plytho wrote:Crap, I don't like the Madge lynch.

He also slightly misrepresented the mpolo case, claiming that it wasn't until mpolo's last post that he posted opinions (there are at least 2 posts with opinions in from mpolo), and I already brought up not liking his tone when asking me about mpolo's behaviour. Generally, I'm not feeling too bad about plytho, although there are several small points against him. If he's scum, I wouldn't be surprised if he's on Mark's team, based on general feeling around his statements about Mark (including his start of D2, "let's look for Mark's buddies" comment, and him being the one to "point out" that Mark didn't feel like he was being coached). Slight town lean, but could slip towards scum without too much provocation.

Posting this now to avoid it becoming any more of a wall. Sabrar and somitomi still to come.

Contradictory to what he said in post 37 in that he was okay with the Madge wagon (looked like he didn't like it for personal reasons, not game ones), and opportunistic in that he had been fighting against voting Vicarin the last several posts.

post 41: apparently post 36 was an actual request for other wagonspost 42&43: asks other players to post

A lot of scope to who he's questioning, some follow ups on people. Implicit bias against BF, mainly seen when he doesn't want to vote Vicarin just on BF's say so. What is concerning to me is the voting record. He was voting mpolo all D1, even starting as his joke vote, execpt when mpolo was at L-1. As scummy as plytho was reading him, he shouldn't have any problem seeing mpolo lynched, and the hammerer would be a good place to start D2. On the flip side, he fought the Vicarin wagon all the way to the end, until he flippantly jumps on. I give him a slight scum read.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What did you mean by putting me separately back early D1 here?

That was in the jokey potion of D1. Having a drop-in player is weird, and felt part of the advertised weirdness. bessie later explained the RL origin of this and all was good.

The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

Sorry, this took a bit longer than expected, because I got interrupted by a lengthy phone call to a certain woman...

Spotted this whilst re-reading Sabrar:

plytho wrote:moody: ... Implies he might be scum:

moody7277 wrote:If we lean toward BoomFrog's theory,

There's no reason for town to lean that way.

I'm surprised this got dropped. Did I miss something in the explanation for it?

Sabrar:

Spoiler:

D1: Claims traitor and joke votes me. Several joke comments around various players. D1 town-claims are suspicious and Mark is obv-town. Town faction should have been obvious, but thinks it makes bessie more likely town. Thinks bessie attacking him for not realising the joke is more likely to come from town. Votes Madge. Claims will be dead N1, because no self-preservation ability. Thinks scum!bessie would be more careful about her opening post. Asks mpolo why he's not voting for a scum claim. Wonders why mpolo thinks it's clear there are multiple scum factions. Votes mpolo. Not actually traitor. Explains how he feels mpolo's thoughts don't add up. Finds Madge sheep comment "lazy and avoiding responsibility". Thinks plytho has a good point re. moody "leaning towards agreeing with BoomFrog's theory". Asks moody why he's voting for him if he's thinking he is a jester. Asks BF for clarification on scum tell of Vicarin, and for further elaboration on L-1 comments. Argues case for Vicarin being reluctant to vote. Discusses with BF mpolo wagon. Bottom three of mpolo, Vicarin, Madge. Madge sheeping is new behaviour. Votes Vicarin, because sarcasm feels off. Asks HA for redas on mpolo/Vicarin.

D2: Decides we have multiple janitors and definitely multi-ball. No results to share. Summarises player opinions on Mark. Could be just two teams with no Mafia A. Asks me about Vicarin role-name reveal vs mpolo. Possible C tried to kill BF, and redirected to mpolo. bessie unlikely to be partners with Mark, but not 100% sure. Asks plytho for more elaboration re. Mark feelings. Interested in bessie update on plytho. Prods moody. Votes HA for lurking. Asks me more about alignments of dead townies. Not sure if he believes plytho forgot Mark was scum in AW. Thinks I'm misremembering/misinterpreting facts around plytho's portrayal of D1 mpolo. Confident I'm town because he keeps misreading me Wants ConMan to explain his logic. Asks ConMan why not reveal full results. Asks me and Madge why bessie is a better vote target. Prods somitomi. Doesn't trust plytho. Explains desire for ConMan results. Asks Madge to explain who is scum. Asks people to answer if they would support lynching Madge in addition to another player today. Asks them not to comment on other replies. Continues to prod Madge for a read-list and explanation.

Sabrar wrote:Also Mark is obv-town.

This is an interesting early comment from Sabrar, given Mark's flip.Also @Sabrar:Why did you make the assumption about janitors and definitely multi-ball here?What, if any, were your conclusions following this review of Mark links?When are you planning to talk about the responses regarding Madge? I've not been paying attention to exactly who has responded, but I'm curious where you're going with it, and I did pick up on one thing from another player related to that that I want to discuss, but you've asked us not to for now.

There are one or two odd bits with Sabrar's play, but in general, I feel like he's trying to solve the game. Admittedly, Sabrar is good at doing that as scum too, but I'm not really feeling suspicious about him currently. I do think he needs to give a clearer idea of who he currently finds town/scum, and I'm not particularly happy with his Vicarin attacks, for similar reasons to what I said previously about bessie (although I do sort of see where he was coming from). However, despite that, I think he's a town lean for me.

Last, but not least (I think? )...

somitomi:

Spoiler:

D1: Votes Vicarin for not reading the opening post. Takes it BF is not town. Confused by Sabrar comment re. Mark obv-town. Poses a series of things he'd like to know the answer to, mostly factual comments, but does bring up Sabrar's and BF's gambits. BF interest in claims is suspect. Removes joke vote. Sabrar has calmed down and looks like normal Sabrar. Confused by mpolo, but wagon also fairly suspicious - could be the "other" mafia going for it. Accepting lynch early doesn't seem townie. Plytho towniest. Hammering mpolo when he's absent would be scummy. Vote tells us nothing about mpolo's alignment. Wonders if there's room for a 3+ mafia team. Confused by Madge. Finds BF mpolo argument (assuming 2 scum teams) compelling. Gives ordered list (mpolo, Vicarin scummiest, plytho, BoomFrog tonwiest). Vicarin attack on BF excessive, and remarks on mpolo being close to lynch odd. Asks BF if he's going to share his gambit findings. Wants to know why Madge wants to continue chaos. Consensus on wagon unusual early game. Thinks voting mpolo to put him at L-1 was a town!newbie mistake. No strong scum reads. Vicarin read improved. Madge not even giving vibe reads, votes Madge. Better to set up tie, because he is less scummy than Madge. Vicarin argument with Sabrar concerning. Decides to switch to vote him.

D2: nothing to claim. Thinks Sabrar's comments suggesting a lot of mafia are far-fetched. Could Mafia C have been redirected to themselves? Amused by the powers of clairvoyance shown by me and ConMan. Promises to get back to reads. Scummiest reads are dead, newbie town flipped scum. No to Sabrar's lynch Madge + X proposal, as it brings us closer to LYLO/MYLO. Been working on possible mates for Mark, but unsure what to do with the information.

There's nothing really objectionable in somitomi's content. His opinions seem logical, from what he's said. He seems to be trying to figure things out, and he doesn't appear to be pushing some sort of agenda, so I'm happy labelling him as town.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This is an interesting early comment from Sabrar, given Mark's flip.

It was a joke, based on the sentiment expressed by Mark here and here.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Why did you make the assumption about janitors and definitely multi-ball here?

Janitor: knowing who was on the correct wagons is one of the most important tool in town's arsenal and a basic concept of most setups. Janitor was the first thing that came to mind (especially after Stellaris).Multiball: 2 nk-s, 2 hidden flips and most importantly Mark flipping as Mafia C.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What, if any, were your conclusions following this review of Mark links?

I was suspicious of bessie/Madge/somitomi/plytho, I think BoomFrog would have interacted more with a buddy, I didn't think heury or moody would be a scum-buddy (but either could be on another team).

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:When are you planning to talk about the responses regarding Madge? I've not been paying attention to exactly who has responded, but I'm curious where you're going with it,

I will collect my thoughts tomorrow morning whether ConMan showed up or not (he and heury are the only ones who haven't replied). I've been going back and forth with it.

Madge wrote:I'm happy to give reads, if I don't have to explain them. You all know that explanations not my forte. I just get the vibe of the thing, man!

Then do that. Quite possibly some people will question you about it, but at least that'll get us going a little.

TOWNjimbob: well, he's got a doctor's note excusing him from D1, but he has put quite a lot of effort into reviewing what he missed and I didn't notice anything unusual about him so far.plytho: I think he made a lot of good observations, and following up on responses on his posts. I find his Vicarin vote at the end of D1 odd though, because he seemed to have a positive opinion on him before.Sabrar: Both the initial shenanigans and his later activity match his usual style. His argument with Vicarin over the flips was unusual, Vicarin seemed to raise a good point there and I think someone as smart as Sabrar would understand it.bessie: seems to be business as usual, trying to figure things out and commenting on almost everything. She did spend a lot of time on that argument with Vicarin though.moody: nothing pinged me about him. He makes good contributions, but he's not particularly active at the same time.heury: where in the world is Heuristically_alone? There's a little bit of investigation going on in his posts and he appears to follow up on his questions, but I really want to see him more. I can't throw too many stones in that particular direction, but this level of lurking is plain ridiculous.ConMan (formerly BoomFrog): I realised he hasn't yet followed up on this so whatever conclusions he drew are gone now. I still don't know why he asked Madge to vote him late D1 and what pinged me particularly on reread is that he didn't explain such an odd request in any way (not even to say "I can't talk about it because my role says so"). I'm a bit suspicious about ConMan's redirection claim. The way he reveals only part of what he claims to know makes me think it might just be an attempt to sow confusion.Madge: most of her posts are fluff and despite her late D1 promise, she appears to be deliberately confusing now. My read of her has not improved a bit so far.SCUMI struggled with this a lot, because with the exception of heury (and maybe ConMan, I don't think I've played with before), everyone's so Inexperience Challenged I feel like they could outsmart me before breakfast.

My feelings are getting a bit hurt, but okay! I don't think there's anything I can say that'll save my hide at this point, unless anyone wants to have pity on (likely) only the vanilla townie in the game of CHAOS!

I'm still interested in what conman has to say, because it'll help me make deductions from claims in the future, which is what I'm really looking forward to, and if he decides to be RUDE and die then I'm gonna be PISSED

Reads:

Townier side: Jimbob, plytho

Scummier side: moody, somitomi

I think these guys are probably either all town or all scum but don't ask me which because I don't know, I don't even know why I think this, vibe of the thing, etc: {Boomfrog/Conman, Bessie, Sabrar}, but I think I'll be able to work things out better as I get more claims, something about Conman's claim at the beginning of the day is giving me this vibe.

About to be replaced, scum please do us a solid and kill so we don't need modkill: Heury

vote: conman

bessie wrote:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FWIW, Madge MAY be vanilla town, but if that's what her role PM states, I actually expect there to be something hidden in her role that she doesn't know about.

And Madge shouldn’t need this pointed out to her. I find it hard to believe VanillaTown!Madge didn't consider this possibility.

I'm vanilla town. I don't know what else I can say.

somitomi wrote:[[Madge] appears to be deliberately confusing now.

I'm honestly doing my best!

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I like Jimbob's assessment of Mark's post, it does seem like a..... very experienced post; if it didn't have Mark's name on it I'd attribute it to Sabrar, probably.

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actually, yeah - is anyone else VT? I was expecting in CHAOS there to be tons of roles and cool roles, with no VT people. Am I one of many? From the reactions I'm guessing not.

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Reads list. I’ve been working on this, a couple are incomplete, and they are a little light toward the end, but I’m going to post what I have. Deadline is Tuesday when I am at work, I probably won’t post (or will be very limited) Tuesday morning. I’m supposed to be going out tomorrow (Monday) night but will do my best to post whatever I can.

BoomFrog/ConManOn D1 BoomFrog was not on my scum list, and I said that if both of us were alive today I would dig more in to his content. I agree with the content BoomFrog posted toward the end of D1. I will reread and analyze BoomFrog if someone asks me to do so, but my time is limited and I don’t know how much good it will do as BoomFrog is not here to reply. Re this post, I can see some argument for withholding the information ConMan claims to have (at least until everyone claims night results), which if I interpret correctly, is that ConMan knows all the original and redirected targets from N1 (but still this is not clear). But now everyone (except heury) has claimed whatever they are going to claim, and he should share information before end of day. ConMan replaced in to a game with 10 pages of content on D1, longer than many completed games back when he used to play more regularly. So I want to give him allowance for skimming D1 content or anything he needs to do to catch up. But I am concerned about his D2 content, of which there is very little. I’ve already questioned this post, see here (still waiting for a reply). I don’t expect an in-depth reads list, but there is enough D2 content that he should have some reads, concerns, questions for others. Leaning scum.

heuristically_aloneNothing pinged me from D1. No D2 content.

jimbobmacdoodlejimbob is town reading Vicarin and mpolo based on information in his own role pm. Ok. But it feels to me like one of his continued reasons for scum reading me is: bessie is scum that was deliberately pushing a townie mislynch. I’m suspicious that you’re building a case on me based on the “fact” that I should know that Vicarin is town. And jimbob, if your scum read on me is so largely based on my push of Vicarin, why do you not find plytho suspicious? This was the vote when I signed off late Sunday night. (also note that I made it clear, in advance, that I very likely wouldn’t be around the last 12ish hours of D1.)

There are a couple of places where I feel jimbobmacdoodle is misrepresenting my content. Like in this post.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On my way past, I skimmed Mark's content, and didn't get much other than he isn't likely Madge's buddy, and this post feels like he was supplied the suggestion by somebody:

Mark_Cangila wrote:

Bessie wrote:So go ahead and link one and I’ll concede that you are correct and I am wrong.

I don't like this. It reminds me of Vicarin's wasting of your time in WOT3. Please explain how it is different, or more acceptable than Vicarin's wasting of your time.

(apologies to Mark if it was genuinely from your own memory). It doesn't feel like something that would stick in most people's minds, unless they're one of those players who keeps copious notes (e.g. bessie), or one of those who was involved (bessie or Vicarin)... actually, now that I write this, this maybe gives a +1 to a Mark/bessie team (which I previously discounted... urrghhh...). Am I being unreasonable in thinking that there aren't many people who would remember that from the start of the previous game?

I think you are misinterpreting and/or misrepresenting this. You should go back to my original post here for the context. Mark got the context wrong when he made the quoted remark here, which was pointed out by Sabrar, and which Mark acknowledged here. TBH I don’t see that anyone in this game would have coached him to make that remark, because it was an error on Mark’s part. So I think it’s suspicious of you to try to use this exchange as evidence of a link between me and Mark (or between Mark and anyone).[Context for all those who don’t feel like picking through it: Vicarin already had a reference, he was asking if I knew of any, I said no just link it.]

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also reject bessie's claim (and others?) that mpolo wasn't trying to help/was active lurking for most of D1.

Nice how you managed to get in another dig at me in your moody read. Here’s the post where I accused mpolo of active lurking (page 6).

bessie wrote:

mpolo wrote:Reading with a phone and mobile internet, whole being driven very rapidly, so this is brief. Sorry about how much I went into the overly depressed mode. However, when the pressure is this hard on D1, and I have no hope of getting anything except what is in thread, it is pretty clear that I am going to be misslynched sooner or later.

Jeez mpolo, I understand about the real life issue, and appreciate that you’re trying to keep up on your phone, but you’re not a newbie, there were times you have served as mentor to newbie me. I don’t need to tell you that the most important thing a townie can do when facing pressure and the potential lynch is to continue to push and prod and flush out scum, and even if you’re lynched you’ll leave behind information that may lead us to scum. I find this quite odd from you.

When I posted that, mpolo had made 6 posts. From you own analysis, his content didn’t improve a lot until post #8, which was after my reads list (page 7), and mpolo’s analysis in post #10 was after I signed off on D1.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sorry, this took a bit longer than expected, because I got interrupted by a lengthy phone call to a certain woman...

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FWIW, Madge MAY be vanilla town, but if that's what her role PM states, I actually expect there to be something hidden in her role that she doesn't know about.

And Madge shouldn’t need this pointed out to her. I find it hard to believe VanillaTown!Madge didn't consider this possibility.

I'm vanilla town. I don't know what else I can say.

Madge, I don’t even know what to say about this anymore. The point I’m trying to make is that someone with your experience and devious mind should suspect that maybe you have a hidden power, and you’re not even considering it. I think Madge is scum.

moody7277At the time I made my D1 reads list, I had moody as a scum lean, some of my suspicions on D1 were because I was getting a vibe that moody was brushing off some of my content. I had him as not votable on D1 because moody is one of the most consistent players on this forum, and I have a very difficult time reading him (and have taken heat for it in the past). I think his D2 content is improved and that he is scum hunting and trying to figure things out. My feeling as I write this is town lean.

plythoTown lean in my D1 reads list. I have been grilled by Sabrar several times for an updated read, which I tried to do here. There were a couple questions as to end of D1 content, but I feel plytho’s responses were ok (disagree with him on my Vicarin read, but I don’t see any value in continuing this even if we get a flip, because plytho didn’t play WoT3 so he isn’t seeing my Vicarin concerns in that light). plytho’s end of D1 vote for Vicarin makes me pretty certain plytho is not scummates with Vicarin. I reread and I get the feel that Madge could have been lynched if plytho didn’t switch. Note that I think his switch to Vicarin is odd, but I can’t see any reason plytho would flip the lynch to Vicarin unless he’s scum with Madge, or possibly mpolo to ensure the lynch didn’t swing back to him.

Early D2 I had considered the possibility that plytho was mafia with mpolo. plytho had made this comment:

plytho wrote:I'm assuming mafia C killed mpolo (the C might be a red herring btw) an odd target perhaps as he was under pressure and looked quite lynchable. Who gains by killing mpolo?

He immediately tries to move the focus from “what was mpolo’s alignment” to “who would want to kill mpolo”. I questioned him on it twice, here’s the second time:

bessie wrote:Why didn’t you consider mpolo was killed by Mafia-Not-C? Or do you think mpolo was mafia?

When I wrote the above comment I was tired, and I can’t remember where I was going with it, maybe it will come back to me.

Note: I didn’t address the content in this post since I will probably need to return to plytho tomorrow night anyway, after he does his read of me, and answers the questions I’ve posted for him.

SabrarTown read on D1. Still have a town read. There were some D1 oddities, like his scum read of Madge, and his pushing me for a plytho read. The Madge thing was so un-meta of him. There had been so many times I have tunneled on Madge for scummy content, and he defended her almost every time (and he was right and I was wrong). D2 he has an open question about lynching Madge in a second lynch, which may be related to his power, and which he may go in to more tomorrow. I will need to come back to this read.

somitomiI think his D1 content was a little light but did have opinions. Overall I think his D2 content has been ok. He tried to do an analysis of Mark to find his partner (but didn’t draw any conclusions from it). He doesn’t dig very deeply with his reads list, but he does provide an ordered list with reasons. One thing that did stand out to me is his BoomCon read where he points out that BoomFrog asked Madge to vote for him and then move her vote. I had forgotten about this because I didn’t reread BoomFrog. Now I’m wondering why somitomi didn’t push this point harder, because I can’t see how the request fits with the information ConMan claimed he has (note that ConMan didn’t actually claim that his redirection information is from his power). Town lean.

First off I would like to make it clear that my hypothetical scenario was not another gambit, when I asked that question I thought it would really be he way to go. The mechanics aren't exactly as I've described (but the end-result would be the same) however it is advantageous for us to keep the exact specifics hidden until I'm ready to use it. And I decided not to do so today.

The setup-was advertised as power-role heavy. I have real issues believing Madge's claim (then again I was the only VT in Fridge...). OTOH I see this reaction as townie given the time-stamps. It seems to come from the heart rather than the brain. The fact that nobody even tried to defend Madge is a bit worrisome as well. Only somitomi voted no however with some bad logic. The lynch is town's biggest weapon, more town-controlled deaths are always good (see Stellaris). I think this a newbie mistake as I'm reading somitomi as town otherwise but it also means that should somitomi ever flip scum then Madge is almost surely his buddy.I also thought about Madge being Jester but in the end I don't think we have that role in the setup (and Madge is right here, it's unlikely that lynching one would end the game.Additional thoughts: most players simply voted yes, I found moody's response the most weaselly because it seemed to be hedging.Overall: this Madge does not fit any of the previous Madge-s I know, I would have thought definitely a vote-related power/restriction but she denies it. If Madge is town then I feel she must have some sort of restriction but forbidden to admit it. However she could be easily scum as well with the same restriction. It would be bastard either way.My gut says Town (or 5% Jester) though if I'm wrong about the restriction then probably scum as town!her should have given up the roleplay (assuming that it was) by now.

Other comments: I said here that I was finally able to break the jimbob-code and I'm pretty sure I was right. As some of jimbob's content causes me concern I'm pretty sure he's Town and no this is not a joke.I don't like plytho saying that ConMan was helpful and thereby townie.

ConMan wrote:The N1 deaths were on neither list (so only BoomFrog got redirected to Mark, and only one player got redirected to mpolo), so (again assuming that this set of redirects is final) I know who was actually targeted with the NKs.

This implies that he knew both kills were redirected right from the start but he shared only one of the results and is unwilling to share the rest. His vote on me comes from bad logic. Aside: end of D1 I got some sheep-vibes from BoomFrog, if Vicarin was town and scum pushed his wagon then I believe BoomFrog is the most likely suspect there.I think bessie is most likely town (as a general vibe) but I wouldn't bet large sums of money on it.

If I had to vote now it would be for ConMan but I don't want to vote with Madge.@Madge: please move your vote. Also can you at least try to point out which of somitomi's posts gave you that vibe?

bessie wrote: The point I’m trying to make is that someone with your experience and devious mind should suspect that maybe you have a hidden power, and you’re not even considering it.

I'm vanilla town! What else can I say!

@Sabrar: finally, an intelligent post from someone! Thank you for understanding me. I like how you and Bessie are back where you always are, I feel comforted.

Sabrar wrote:@Madge: please move your vote. Also can you at least try to point out which of somitomi's posts gave you that vibe?

Not really, it's just the overall vibe of the thing. Really, moody and somitomi are both considered townie by me, but when you think everyone's townie, the people who are the least townie I guess become scummy by definition? But his lack of towniness is considered to be simply because everyone else seems so townie to me.

Unvote

vote: moody

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Sorry for not being around all weekend - life is busy, and has slightly higher priority than mafia. But still, I'm reading through the thread, and here are my responses to a few things that I've been tagged in.

Bessie wrote:

ConMan wrote: It's worth noting that no-one in this thread until Plytho had seriously considered the possibility that the night kill redirected from BoomFrog was the one that killed Mark, rather than mpolo. Sabrar first put out his theory, and everyone went with it.

What makes you think anyone seriously discarded this theory, or any theory, yet?

I didn't see a lot of discussion on that side of things. No-one even went "There are two obvious possibilities of which kill was redirected from BF, but let's assume it was mpolo's". If people hadn't discarded the theory, at least none of them had really acknowledged its existence.

Sabrar wrote:@all: please give a straightforward yes/no answer to the following question. Please don't delay your response by asking questions that I won't answer. You can give reasons for your decision (in fact I encourage it) but you should commit yourself either way.

Suppose that we have the opportunity to lynch 2 players today but with the caveat that one of them has to be Madge. Do you think we should do it?

I've fluctuated a bit on this, but I think now I'm leaning more towards no. Her claim is bold, but it makes a kind of weird sense so for now I believe, at least, that she thinks she's vanilla town.

To answer a broader question, since Sabrar seems to be suggesting he has some kind of day kill ability (possibly targeted, possibly he gets told who he can kill each day?). The fact that he's asking what we think of it is good, and gives off a strong town read. I would personally prefer he use his own judgement but also maybe let us know he's doing it, I guess. Lynches are meant to capture the will of the group, whereas daykills allow a player to target someone they themselves are suspicious of regardless of the groupthink.

Now, as to my information, since it's obviously driven a lot of discussion, and suspicion about me. I think it's time for the 90% true answer (yes, I'm still holding something back, but I'll let you know what it is this time). My role includes an ability to trigger a random redirect of *all* night actions, and receive a list of who the new targets are. It is not infinitely usable (the bit I'm not going to tell is how often it can be used), but BF activated it on N1. I had hoped that there would at least be a few responses of "OK, I tracked X, can you tell me who I actually saw?", but I guess not. Of course the people with killing roles already knew that their targets didn't die like they should have, so I wasn't telling them that much more in my initial claim.

As for who got retargeted where, I'm still not happy with Sabrar being so pushy about knowing the answers, but I guess it's time to reveal them all. Assuming I made no transcription errors, here are the redirects:

I've decided to be a bit more explicit about my role PM based alignment knowledge, to avoid any confusion. From my role PM, I know that Vicarin was the same alignment as me. Assuming that wam's not lying in bold with regards to my alignment, that means he was town. I made a wild guess that those whose alignment wasn't revealed were all the same alignment, with the theory being that they were all caused by the same mechanic, hence my inferral that mpolo was also town. When it was pointed out that there was an inconsistency between mpolo's and Vicarin's flip, I discarded the theory that the two causes were linked. I do still feel like mpolo was town, but I don't know anything beyond this and public knowledge to indicate this.

plytho wrote: I'm not saying "not this" I'm saying "more likely that". I had more post but it was eaten.

No, you said this:

plytho wrote:I'm assuming mafia C killed mpolo (the C might be a red herring btw) an odd target perhaps as he was under pressure and looked quite lynchable. Who gains by killing mpolo?

You not only assumed Mafia C killed mpolo, you immediately focused on who might have gained by killing mpolo.

I don't think that's contradictory? "I'm assuming" means "I think this is more likely". And the question "who gains by killing mpolo?" is useful in both scenarios as it leads to a killing faction. Which in my mind would most likely be mafia C but could also hit another mafia. (pov: excluding revelations about redirections)

bessie wrote:

plytho wrote:The argument I didn't follow was the gambit success rate discussion between you and Vicarin. The arguments that didn't convince me were your arguments for scumreading him. (from this post)

So what did convince you to switch to Vicarin? BoomFrog’s arguments, or was it all about Madge?

A little of both. BoomFrog's arguments were convincing and the fact that he was pushing vic along with you and sabrar helped. I definitely still preferred the mpolo lynch, but after my final attempt to make that happen failed I had to choose between Madge and Vicarin. The Madge lynch felt kind of easy and consisted of people avoiding making a hard choice.

moody7277 wrote:What is concerning to me is the voting record. He was voting mpolo all D1, even starting as his joke vote, execpt when mpolo was at L-1. As scummy as plytho was reading him, he shouldn't have any problem seeing mpolo lynched, and the hammerer would be a good place to start D2.

The L-1 bit happened really early D1, not even 48 hours in. That's way too early for a D1 lynch.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Spotted this whilst re-reading Sabrar:

plytho wrote:moody: ... Implies he might be scum:

moody7277 wrote:If we lean toward BoomFrog's theory,

There's no reason for town to lean that way.

I'm surprised this got dropped. Did I miss something in the explanation for it?

Huh, I don't think so. I completely forgot about this by the time I made my second reads list. @moody: care to comment?

ConMan wrote:Plytho --> mpolo

Thanks for saving my life, I guess, ConMan.

So, if we can believe ConMan the NK targets were BoomFrog and me. That definitely makes more sense than Mark and mpolo.

I do notice that ConFrog was one of three safe players N1. Which could indicate it's not as random as he claims. I'm also noticing the two losing wagons were redirected at me.

Hmm, I think the list is probably (mostly) accurate even if ConMan is scum. I don't see scum giving us an entirely wrong list to confirm with our results. I can see them switching a name or two to confuse us just a little.

I don't think ConMan should use his redirect again. Since it's supposedly random and we have two kills flying around the odds of us losing ConMan and with him code to the results are too high.

plytho wrote:I don't think ConMan should use his redirect again. Since it's supposedly random and we have two kills flying around the odds of us losing ConMan and with him code to the results are too high.

This relies on the assumption that ConMan is town. In which case I think the chance for him to be nk-d is much higher if we publicly agree that he shouldn't use his ability.

plytho wrote:I don't think ConMan should use his redirect again. Since it's supposedly random and we have two kills flying around the odds of us losing ConMan and with him code to the results are too high.

This relies on the assumption that ConMan is town. In which case I think the chance for him to be nk-d is much higher if we publicly agree that he shouldn't use his ability.

Hmm, yes chances of a ConMan NK increase without the redirect. But the (potential) loss to town is reduced information-wise. It also doesn't entirely rely on ConMan being town as the same logic holds for scum!ConMan. There's also something to be said for random redirection of the two kills increasing the odds of hitting scum instead of town. There's some math to be done here that I'm not going to be able to do, but I guess you could calculate probabilities based on expected number of scum. If we're going for random redirection we should randomize whether or not to do it.

Plytho! I knew I missed someone in my reads list. I think you raised some good points, so I'm going to put you in the twilight zone. (Wait no, I didn't miss you at all! I just thought I missed you!!! Whoopsie!)

Anyway, a new completely unjustified readslist:

Dead Player Walking: Heury

Townish: Jimbob, plytho, bessie, somitomi, conman

Scum: moody, Sabrar

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