How Israel can deter Iran?

Hezbollah
is said to have 130,000 rockets that could reach all of Israel, with Hamas
possessing thousands of rockets that could cover southern and central Israel,
including the Tel Aviv area. It is also said that, if war broke out, Israel
could find itself fighting on two fronts, possibly even a third, the Golan
Heights, where it would face an Iranian force made up of Revolutionary Guards
and militias under Tehran’s control.

And
in the next war, thousands of rockets would land on Israeli population centers,
and on strategic assets including the Haifa Bay industrial complex, power
stations on the Mediterranean coast, ammonia tanks and airports and who knows
what else, not to mention military bases, including air bases. Such a barrage
could seriously disrupt air force operations and possibly also the mobilization
assembly points and armored columns, which at that point should be racing
toward Beirut, the Syrian section of the Golan Heights and Gaza.

Israel’s
anti-rocket capabilities, which include many Iron Dome batteries and a large
supply of Arrow missiles, wouldn’t provide sufficient defense for the country’s
cities and factories against such an onslaught. All this would happen on Iran’s
orders, the moment Tehran decided that the conditions were right, perhaps in
the not-so-distant future in a regional conflict or something that relates more
directly to Israel and its efforts to prevent the spread of Iranian power
around us.

The
Israeli media says little about the chaos that would ensue for weeks or even
months, even if the country’s road, train, electricity, water, sewage and
natural gas infrastructure continued to function at some basic level, and even
if the army pressed all the way to Beirut and Gaza’s cities and somehow routed
Hezbollah and Hamas after fighting that exacted a heavy casualty toll and
wreaked massive destruction.

But
there may be a way to avert this scenario with one simple and blunt statement.
The Israeli government should declare tomorrow, immediately, publicly and
unequivocally, that if Iran’s proxies forced Israel into an all-out war, for
any reason, with a massive rocket barrage, Israel would respond immediately and
forcefully against Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Bushehr, Natanz, Qom and Iran’s
other population centers and strategic targets.

Iran
would know that such a clear and powerful public statement would compel every
Israeli government – regardless of who’s prime minister – to act on it (lest
Israel be seen as a paper tiger and lose all its deterrent capability). Also,
Iran would understand that it would pay dearly for an assault on Israel by its
proxies. The fear of such a massive Israeli reprisal – hundreds of missiles and
bombs on Iran’s cities and strategic assets for weeks – would make Iran’s
leaders think very carefully about whether they should dispatch Hezbollah and
Hamas and their proxies in Syria on any adventures.

So
far, Iran has enjoyed immunity from attacks on its soil, with Israeli
governments opting to respond to rockets from Lebanon and Gaza with (limited)
strikes against targets in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. This was a mistake that
left Israel under a constant threat in the north and south, and led to a
balance of deterrence – a balance that Tehran could nullify whenever it chose.

A
clear and public announcement by Israel would probably deter Tehran from
embarking on such an adventure. Critics would say: In response to an Israeli
counterattack on Iran, Tehran would launch missiles on Israeli and possibly
American targets in the Gulf – and in Iraq and Syria too. Maybe, but Israel’s
ability to strike Iran is much greater than Iran’s ability to strike Israel,
and that’s without considering Israel’s nonconventional capabilities. Israel’s
anti-ballistic capabilities would probably neutralize the bulk of the missiles
from Iran (which has a limited capability at the necessary range).

Nor
does Iran have an air force that could come near Israel in any significant way.
The regime of the ayatollahs, whose headquarters, factories and military would
be bombed, would probably not be able to withstand such a contest for long,
especially considering the regime’s unpopularity with everyday Iranians, which
would certainly grow if the country’s major cities and factories were assaulted.
And in such a conflict, there is no reason to believe that Tehran would wish to
add the United States as an active combatant against it.

Thus,
I believe that, using a simple declaration of just one sentence, the specter of
an all-out offensive against Israel by Iran’s proxies and emissaries can be
neutralized.

Would
Hezbollah and Hamas launch their rocket arsenal at Israel without an order or
approval from Tehran and against its will? This is hard to believe, as they
need Tehran’s political, financial and military support, and as well fear that
Israel would destroy neighborhoods in Gaza and Lebanon. In any event, Israel
must act as if the signal for an attack on it would be given by Tehran, and
Tehran must understand that this is how Israel would act. This would certainly
prod Iran to rein in the neighboring fundamentalist Islamic groups, even should
Hezbollah and Hamas think of going to war independently.

Israel
should issue its warning to Tehran very loudly and clearly, and the sooner the
better. Perhaps this will spare us the terrible war that many analysts predict
is approaching.