posted at 8:31 pm on November 13, 2013 by Allahpundit

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gets all the love as the current GOP front-runner for 2016 (to the extent there can even be a front runner three years out.) But there is growing chatter in elite New York financial circles that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is giving more serious consideration to getting in the race, especially if it appears at any point that Christie is not drawing big national appeal beyond the northeast. Several plugged in GOP sources said Bush has moved from almost certainly staying out to a 30 percent chance of getting in. The “70/30” odds pop up in so many conversations they almost seem like circulated talking points.

“I think he could run,” said one senior Republican who now works in the financial industry. “The environment is shaping up well for him. Republicans want someone who is competent and who can win and that’s Jeb.” Of course it could also be Christie. Some of the chatter ratcheted up because Bush was in NYC on Tuesday and spoke at the SIFMA conference and took some hard shots at President Obama for taking “victory dances” after fiscal fights and not building relationships with Republicans that could help on tax reform, immigration and other issues. Bush also slammed Obamacare saying it would collapse of its own weight and the GOP should be “ready with an alternative.”

I take it this is just Bushworld’s way of warning Republican millionaires not to get too caught up in Christiemania before Jeb has decided definitively that he’s not running. Needless to say, if they both jumped in, it’d be a knife fight between them for the establishment vote in the same way that Paul and Cruz will be fighting for the tea-party vote. What exactly is the threshold of “big national appeal,” though, that Christie would need to meet in order to convince Jeb that he can play everywhere? Or better yet, when would he have to meet it? If a poll comes out next month showing Christie’s approval sky high in the northeast but only moderately favorable elsewhere, is that the smoking gun? Is it a smoking gun if, after he takes over the RGA, he goes down to South Carolina to campaign for Lindsey Graham and Graham gets crushed anyway? Or are Jeb’s pals imagining a much later scenario, after the primary campaign has begun in 2015? Imagine it’s June of that year and Christie trails badly in evangelical-heavy Iowa. Is that’s Jeb’s cue to proclaim CC another Giuliani who’ll crumble before the tea-party onslaught, with the Bush brand (shudder) the only thing standing between moderate Republicans and the Cruzpocalypse?

If that’s what he’s thinking, he’d better think again. I think many righties (but not all) could very grudgingly tolerate Jeb being nominated if he got in reasonably early, paid his dues by enduring a tough campaign, and then presented himself as the only man with enough name recognition to give Hillary a serious run in the general. If he jumps in late as some alleged party savior, though, it’ll be a disaster. The perception, rightly, would be that the establishment’s trying to foist someone from the GOP’s royal family on the Republican elecorate at the eleventh hour, almost as a sort of coup. I think you’d see many “somewhat conservative” voters resist that, either by rallying to Christie or to the tea-party champion as an alternative. Doesn’t mean Jeb would or could be stopped, but it’d inspire a lot of bad feelings. The way to do this if it’s going to be done is to be forthright. Frankly, it wouldn’t be all bad for Christie if Jeb tried it: He’d lose some big money he was counting on but he’d also gain a chance to present himself as the more conservative of the two centrist options. And it would highlight his appeal as a nontraditional politician. If you recoil at the idea of reinstalling the Bush dynasty on the throne, what better way to send that message if you’re a non-tea-partier than by backing the blue-collar guy from Jersey?

I almost didn’t post that data just because it’s so, so, so obviously a gauge of name recognition, not any reasoned consideration of the two candidates. Christie’s gotten glowing media coverage over the past week due to his Jersey landslide and he was well liked by national media before that because of his chumminess with Obama after Sandy. Here’s his reward. He does better head to head against Hillary than either Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, or Paul Ryan — although, interestingly, all four of them have gained a few points against her in hypothetical match-ups since last month. I think that’s a function of Hillary’s bipartisan popularity dimming a bit as she transitions from her image as secretary of state to likely Democratic nominee, but maybe the ObamaCare disaster and/or a post-shutdown rebound for Republicans is feeding into it a tiny bit too.

This data set is interesting, though:

Quinnipiac asked that same question about Hillary, Paul, Cruz, Ryan, and Joe Biden. The only one of those five besides Christie who was net positive among independents was Clinton, and she was only a few points above water at +6 (49/43). Christie is +27. Even more amazing, he’s only six points underwater among Democrats. No one else polled is even remotely close to breaking even with voters from the opposing party. And for all his vaunted RINO-ness, his approval among Republicans is second — barely — to Paul Ryan’s. He’s ahead of both Paul and Cruz in that metric. Don’t read too much into any of that: Like Hillary herself, a big part of Christie’s popularity right now is the sense that he’s a nonpartisan figure because people know him mainly from Sandy relief. That’ll fade as he starts campaigning in earnest and as the left starts playing up the more conservative parts of his record. He’s got quite a cushion at the moment, though, among voters whom the GOP would like to steal. Maybe Jeb can top it, but the bar Christie’s setting is high.

Blowback

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Anyone seriously concerned about Common Core and the Federal Government’s coercion (not “voluntary” or “state led”) of states to adopt a one-size fits set of standards will NEVER EVER EVER vote for Jeb Bush.

EVER. That’s probably the reason I won’t vote for Christie either.

It’s the educational version of Obamacare. It’s centralized control that does not reduce dependence of states on the Federal government and creates more Federal control in education.

Oh, great… Two of the three people who aren’t getting my vote no matter how many GOP say, “ZOMG you would rather have shrillery/fauxcahontas/otherdemrecentlyinnews! If s/he wins it will be all your fault and not in any way related to GOP platform, lack of fiscal conservativism, lack if constitutional fealty, or other conservatives single issue voting on matters that shouldn’t even be federal matters but rather state matters, such as abortion. It will be all your fault for drawing a line and not voting the lesser of two evils for the eighth time ina row!1!!!1!!!!”

I wish it was just stupidity, but alas it’s more than that. Their fight now to eliminate the tea party tells anyone that listens what and who they are. Jeb is just the next in line that will tote the line for the elitist in Washington that they think has a chance. Much more the pity, but they will do anything to stop a conservative getting nomination BECAUSE it would expose them. They would have to fight against their own candidate like Rove did in so many elections. Think O’Donnell and the one from Alaska.

Another Bush, just what we do not need. Two losses in the two Presidential races, with moderate candidates, and the Republican establishment wants another……..wait for it…….moderate candidate. Hopeless.

I hope he does jump in. It would be nice to have the RINOs split the primary vote instead of the conservatives for a change.

gophergirl on November 13, 2013 at 8:47 PM

If it’s between Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Peter King, John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger – this election will get split 7 ways to Sunday! The only question is if the actual base candidates will be as large…?!

I love it. Let Jeb, Kristie Kreme and McCant bloody each other in the primaries trying to out-RINO each other. That way a conservative will wind up the nominee, and we can actually win.

Myron Falwell on November 13, 2013 at 8:40 PM

There’s just one wrinkle in your plan. They tend to all shred the conservatives first, clearing the field of them, before they turn on each other. Then you’re just left with whoever was the most willing to steamroll other Republicans.

CurtZHP on November 13, 2013 at 8:50 PM

Don’t worry – we’ll have somebody out there at all costs. Make that person a dark horse. Christie. Schwarzenegger. Jeb. McCain – they’re slimy enough with their negatives, also.

Conservatives, where are our champions? Where? Reagan had to run in 3 primaries before finally winning the nomination. All we do is throw turd-balls at moderates and mock RINOs but where are OUR champions? It’s like deja vu every 4 years.

If you are going for a Dynasty, you need generational change. You can’t have brothers share the throne. One must kill the other or it has to pass to one of their children. Failing that, the crown must pass to the next monarch candidate, Princess Chelsea Clinton.

If Jeb! declares, we’ll need to find a stealth candidate to run in the primaries against him. If it works for the left, why not us? The country doesn’t need another Bush or Clinton right now(or ever) if we are to get back some semblance of what we used to be.