New: Polling Data Updated

Two new polls have just been released, one by Ipsos-Ried and one by Ekos which both put the Liberals closer and closer to majority government territory.

Here’s where the parties stand today:

(click table for detailed Paulitics polling resource page)

So, what’s significant about these polls?

Using the rolling average polling data, the Liberals haven’t had a single rolling-five poll average since October 16th in which they’ve lost ground. In all 12 rolling averages since then they’ve gone up except in one where they just held steady.

Looking at the rolling average and weighted average trend lines shows that while the Liberals have gone up since the election of Stéphane Dion as leader, it looks like this increase more a part of the slow upward, but steady crawl they’ve been experiencing since mid-October.

On the other end of the spectrum – both politically and in polling numbers – the other point of note is that the NDP is in serious trouble. Since November 9th, in every rolling five poll average, the New Democrats have gone nowhere but down. In fact the latest poll by Ekos puts the NDP within the margin of error of both the Bloc and the Greens. Keep in mind that in mid-July, the NDP had a 10-point lead over the Bloc and a 13-point lead over the Greens.

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