This study investigated the sales and advertising "build" curves for 15 consumer packaged-goods (CPG) categories, for both new products and established brands. View Summary

This study investigated the sales and advertising "build" curves for 15 consumer packaged-goods (CPG) categories, for both new products and established brands. Build curves reflect cumulative sales at any given time period divided by the 52-week sales. The author identified commonalities across category in the sales and advertising build curves. The goal: to develop benchmarks that brand managers can employ to assess how their brands are performing. Further, the author believes, these benchmarks are the basis for developing a simple and direct means of forecasting year-end sales based on actual sales over an interim time period.

2

The Role of the Accent in Radio Advertisements to Ethnic Audiences: Does Emphasizing Ethnic Stereotypes Affect Spokesperson Credibility and Purchase Intention?

Advertisers often employ spokespeople who speak with an accent ("accented spokespeople") to promote products and services that are stereotypical of (or related to) a speaker's background. View Summary

Advertisers often employ spokespeople who speak with an accent ("accented spokespeople") to promote products and services that are stereotypical of (or related to) a speaker's background. This practice particularly is evident in radio advertisements, which offer no visual cues to aid in consumers' information processing. The current study examined the impact of using an accented spokesperson on listener evaluations of credibility; attitude toward the spokesperson; and the purchase likelihood of an advertised product or service.

3

A Model for Predicting Advertising Quality as a Key to Driving Sales Growth: How Television Advertising Quality Affected McDonald's Sales Growth Over Six Years

The current research used McDonald's data to explore the relationship between advertising quality and sales growth. View Summary

The current research used McDonald's data to explore the relationship between advertising quality and sales growth. Based on a 6.5-year dataset involving more than 180,000 consumer interviews, the researchers found that nearly half of McDonald's sales growth could be explained by variables related to advertising quality. Specifically, the study found that factors such as sales momentum, the introduction of calorie content on to quick-service restaurant (QSR, i.e., fast-food) menus, and variables related to key research metrics - and, importantly, the right messaging strategy - can be effective in linking advertising to variation in sales.

This paper develops a user experience measurement model for use with digital products, comparing it to other measures and giving examples of its implementation. View Summary

This paper develops a user experience measurement model for use with digital products, comparing it to other measures and giving examples of its implementation.

Digital products were previously measured by 'usability', but this measure is inadequate in explaining why some products sell more units than others.

The proposed model has three main dimensions - task-orientated qualities (learnability and operability), self-orientated qualities (product fit and inspiration) and aesthetic qualities (look and feel).

The scoring system differentiates between products and explains why one may be chosen over another, using the example of smartphones.

5

Pushing the boundaries of MMM: Modeling multiple business KPI and interdependencies in media inputs

This paper compares the approaches of two Indian banks, Axis Bank and Kotak Bank, to their media budgets during difficult economic times, seeking to understand the ROI of different approaches. View Summary

This paper compares the approaches of two Indian banks, Axis Bank and Kotak Bank, to their media budgets during difficult economic times, seeking to understand the ROI of different approaches.

One bank restricted media budgets in the belief that branches and ATMs provided a visible presence, and paid media did not drive revenue.

Whereas the other bank maintained a strong media spend, but wanted to understand how digital media, including display, search and social, contributed to ROI.

Marketing mix modelling was used to understand the impact of these approaches, finding that paid media contributes to revenue by driving salience and digital media is valuable in stimulating consumer interest and improving user experience.

This paper explains what is driving brand growth and inspiring manufacturers and retailers towards profitable business in the FMCG sector, presenting findings from a study of brands across 70 categories in Europe. View Summary

This paper explains what is driving brand growth and inspiring manufacturers and retailers towards profitable business in the FMCG sector, presenting findings from a study of brands across 70 categories in Europe. Drivers of growth and causes of decline over the past five years are explained in the context of economic recession, with comparisons of European markets with the US and emerging markets. Whilst FMCG value has continued to grow, consumers have 'traded down' from brands to private label. There is concern that people who switched to private label purchasing due to financial constraints, may not go back to brands, making brand loyalty an important marketing challenge. However, this situation has also enabled some brands to grow, as it has provided an opportunity to create stronger bonds with core consumers. In each market the top three national brands have achieved strongest growth (+10%), as a result of penetration and adapting to changing consumer needs.

8

Do Emotions in Advertising Drive Sales?: Use of facial coding to understand the relation between emotional ads and sales effectiveness

This paper examines the impact of ads that evoke emotions and are entertaining or are memorable on product sales. View Summary

This paper examines the impact of ads that evoke emotions and are entertaining or are memorable on product sales. Research was conducted to quantitatively measure tacit emotional response to ads through facial recognition, with this information then matched to sales data. Data was collected for over 140 ads in four countries and used to identify the emotional trajectories that are most predictive of sales. It was found that amusement was the strongest predictor of sales. The findings of the research are explained and the ways in which the methods used could be applied to other areas of market research discussed.

9

Is the Multi-Platform Whole More Powerful Than Its Separate Parts? Measuring the Sales Effects of Cross-Media Advertising

Cross-media campaigns are becoming a norm, yet there is a lack of knowledge on how they impact sales. View Summary

Cross-media campaigns are becoming a norm, yet there is a lack of knowledge on how they impact sales. This paper documents the sales response to cross-media campaigns and finds that, when online advertising is added to a television campaign, the extra reach achieved is primarily duplicated. Regularly a single television exposure stimulates sales among those exposed, with online advertising demonstrating a similar yet less consistent response. We do not find evidence of a synergy in sales impact, where the sum effect of exposure to both television and online is greater than the parts. We highlight challenges with such single-source research.

This paper argues that marketing mix models are not useful, and that the mix models currently in use, either the original format or the newer VAR style, systematically understate the true effects of advertising. View Summary

This paper argues that marketing mix models are not useful, and that the mix models currently in use, either the original format or the newer VAR style, systematically understate the true effects of advertising.

Mix models are regression models and, as such, are incapable of providing truly causal evidence as to the effects of advertising and promotion.

This leads marketers to undervalue the real effects of advertising and to reduce their advertising spending, reallocating those funds to price promotion.

Such reductions in expenditure have the unintended effect of stunting sustainable growth and eroding the brand equity built by advertising.

Moreover, reducing adspend to maximise efficiency is a vicious circle; on the other hand, effective advertising is an engine of growth.

What is the pay-off to enlisting celebrity endorsers? Although effects on stock returns are relatively well documented, little is known about any impact on sales—arguably a metric of more direct importance to advertising practitioners. View Summary

What is the pay-off to enlisting celebrity endorsers? Although effects on stock returns are relatively well documented, little is known about any impact on sales—arguably a metric of more direct importance to advertising practitioners. This study of athlete endorsements finds there is a positive pay-off to a firm’s decision to sign an endorser, and that endorsements are associated with increasing sales in an absolute sense and relative to competing brands. Furthermore, sales and stock returns jump noticeably with each major achievement by the athlete. However, whereas stock-return effects are relatively constant, sales effects exhibit decreasing returns over time. Implications for practitioners are outlined.

12

From customer loyalty to social advocacy: Leveraging loyalty data and shopper insights to optimize social media engagement and drive in-store sales

This paper from dunnhumby and BzzAgent highlights how shopper insights can improve the effectiveness of social marketing programs. View Summary

This paper from dunnhumby and BzzAgent highlights how shopper insights can improve the effectiveness of social marketing programs. The study utilised anonymous household-level shopping data from retailer loyalty cards by inviting shoppers to link their social media profiles to their loyalty card purchase profiles. These consumers received product samples, pass-along offers and other things designed to spread recommendations both online and in person. The study found that advocacy programs that leverage both shopper and social data increase in-store sales of a brand by an average of 8% and the sales lift sustains at around 4% for six months after the end of the program. The authors also recommend that advocacy programs should target consumers based on a combination of shopper data, level of social activity and demographics.

13

Optimizing in-store trade promotion and television for maximum short-term and long-term return on investment

This paper describes how dunnhumbyUSA and TRA apply a non-modelled methodology for optimising the mix of TV advertising and in-store marketing. View Summary

This paper describes how dunnhumbyUSA and TRA apply a non-modelled methodology for optimising the mix of TV advertising and in-store marketing. Their approach uses purchase behaviour data from 60m US households and second-by-second measurement of TV viewing habits from more than 2m households. The research quantifies the synergy of the three strongest drivers of positive brand purchase change - pricing, in-store display and television advertising - by focusing on heavily-advertised CPG brands within the toothpaste, yoghurt and cereal categories. The report provides marketers with examples of the types of findings this single-source, household-level methodology can produce. One of the findings was that the simulataneous use of TV advertising, in-store display and a temporary price reduction maximises the positive impact on brand sales, more than 11 times the sales effect of TV advertising alone.

14

Using supermarket loyalty card data to analyse the impact of promotions

The aim of this paper is to show how supermarket loyalty card data from a panel of over 1.4 million shoppers can be used to analyse the effect of price promotions in a way which can bring significant advantages to retailers and manufacturers when making promotional decisions. View Summary

The aim of this paper is to show how supermarket loyalty card data from a panel of over 1.4 million shoppers can be used to analyse the effect of price promotions in a way which can bring significant advantages to retailers and manufacturers when making promotional decisions. The paper demonstrates the significant advantages that loyalty card data can bring to enhance our understanding of promotions, compared to traditional scanner and panel datasets. Regression analysis is used to compare the effects of different promotional mechanics upon different tiers of product across the fresh beef category in Tesco, using both scanner data and loyalty card data. The results show that using loyalty card data, which enables us to moderate for specific shopper characteristics, produces more statistically significant results and provides a more detailed picture of how promotions influence sales.

15

How Emotional Tugs Trump Rational Pushes: The Time Has Come to Abandon a 100-Year-Old Advertising Model

This paper proposes a new model for how advertising works and how it should be measured. It seeks to demonstrate the importance of measuring emotional response to advertising and illustrates the flaws in conventional pre-testing measures of persuasion, cut-through, and message receipt. View Summary

This paper proposes a new model for how advertising works and how it should be measured. It seeks to demonstrate the importance of measuring emotional response to advertising and illustrates the flaws in conventional pre-testing measures of persuasion, cut-through, and message receipt. Drawing on empirical data, it shows how an emotional model of advertising and emotional measurement can lead to greater effectiveness and efficiency and to better planning and decision making.

16

Research on Advertising in a Recession: A Critical Review and Synthesis

Based on an extensive review of research on advertising in a recession, the authors identify over 40 related studies. View Summary

Based on an extensive review of research on advertising in a recession, the authors identify over 40 related studies. Ten of these studies involve original empirical analyses of cross-sectional or time series data. The rest are theoretical discussions, reviews, cases, or opinions. The empirical studies may be classified into four groups based on the dependent variable analyzed: (1) sensitivity of advertising expenditures to the economy, (2) sensitivity of brand versus private-label share to economic expansions and contractions, (3) impact of advertising in a recession to sales or market share during or after a recession, (4) impact of advertising in a recession to profits during and after the recession. The authors critically review these studies and synthesize the major findings.

Based on over 260 estimates, the mean elasticity of sales or market share to advertising is 0.1 percent. View Summary

Based on over 260 estimates, the mean elasticity of sales or market share to advertising is 0.1 percent. Another 450 field experiments suggest that changes in media, product, target segments, advertising scheduling, and advertising content are more likely to yield changes in sales than do changes in advertising weight. Numerous other studies suggest that advertising wear-in does not exist or occurs quite rapidly while advertising wear-out occurs more slowly. Details of and differences in these results by condition are discussed in this article. From an issue of JAR devoted to `empirical generalisations’: the papers were first presented at a conference at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania in December 2008.

This article presents the structure of the market for sweet confections in the period 1996 to 2000. The sales of 100 brands, representing 78 percent of total sales, in food, drug, and mass merchandiser retail outlets, were analyzed for the effects of advertising and other independent variables. View Summary

This article presents the structure of the market for sweet confections in the period 1996 to 2000. The sales of 100 brands, representing 78 percent of total sales, in food, drug, and mass merchandiser retail outlets, were analyzed for the effects of advertising and other independent variables. Sales, advertising, volume, and all commodity volume increased positively. The sales shares of the four product categories—cough drops, breathmints, hard candy, and chewing gum—shifted materially in the period. The absolute advertising levels differed significantly between categories. Regression analysis showed that advertising and volume strongly determined the changes in sales, without influencing prices. The differences in the regression coefficients of advertising and volume between the categories were highly significant (p < 0.01). Sugar-free confections grew much faster than those made with sugars, mainly because they dominated the new-product launches.

Over the last several decades, advertising effects on sales have been studied without appropriately taking into consideration competitors' advertising activities. View Summary

Over the last several decades, advertising effects on sales have been studied without appropriately taking into consideration competitors' advertising activities. As a result, advertisers often instinctively match competitors' spending proportionately when it is monitored. The weakness of such a competitive parity approach is that they implicitly assume zero-sum competition only. This study identifies a variety of competitive conditions under which better budgeting strategies can be formulated. Specifically, four types of competition are conceptualized based on how an advertiser and its competitors affect each other's sales according to level of media advertising spending. In addition, appropriate strategies for setting advertising budgets to deal with each situation are discussed. A mathematical method is developed to measure advertising effectiveness for both the advertiser and competitors on sales of a focal brand. The method computes current and carryover effects, identifies in which type of competition the advertiser is operating, and, accordingly, determines which budgeting strategy best suits the situation. In an empirical illustration, the method was applied to data collected monthly over eight years. The analyzed product was Scotch whisky sold in Thailand.

This article describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases. View Summary

This article describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases. The British single-source database Adlab has been the basis for this study of advertising and promotion effectiveness. The STAS measure and logit modelling have been used to estimate the effect of advertising. The results from the two measures have been compared to determine the extent to which the two measures give occasion for the same conclusions. To indicate the accuracy of the two measures, their respective levels of significance have been studied. Two logit models have been estimated; one only includes the effect of TV exposure, while the other also includes the effect of promotions. The results from the two logit models are compared to determine which model gives the most accurate estimate of the effect of advertising. When comparing the results from the STAS measure with the parameter estimates from the second logit model, it is found that these two different measures largely lead to similar conclusions. Suggestions for further research and developments of the models are given.

This paper addresses the question of the effects of advertising on the primary demand for whisky in Italy. View Summary

This paper addresses the question of the effects of advertising on the primary demand for whisky in Italy. In contrast to previous works, this issue is investigated in a multivariate framework by referring to Johansen’s cointegration technique; this choice allows the non-stationary dynamics of aggregate marketing data to be taken into account, as well as their short-term and long-term relationships. Even if advertising is linked to real prices and sales in the long run, our analysis reveals no evidence supporting the effectiveness of advertising on the aggregate demand for whisky, which is essentially determined by the real price, both in the short and the long term.

22

Beer Brand Advertising and Market Share in the United States: 1977 to 1998

An analysis of the relationship between annual advertising expenditure and market share for several brands of beer sold in the USA between 1977 and 1998, using a generalised least-squares regression p... View Summary

An analysis of the relationship between annual advertising expenditure and market share for several brands of beer sold in the USA between 1977 and 1998, using a generalised least-squares regression procedure.

Advertising sales elasticity is often used to compare advertising effects (across years, campaigns, media, regions and brands). View Summary

Advertising sales elasticity is often used to compare advertising effects (across years, campaigns, media, regions and brands). Broadbent describes why using 'elasticity' in the form of a coefficient in a logarithmic regression, is wrong; and why seeing 'elasticity as the proportion of sales due to advertising is misleading. He recommends using the advertising coefficient in a linear regression for such comparisons.

Print is traditionally valued for its long-term effects on image and awareness building. This paper shows how data from the Nielsen Homescan Panel can also be used to measure its short-term effects on sales for fast moving consumer goods. View Summary

Print is traditionally valued for its long-term effects on image and awareness building. This paper shows how data from the Nielsen Homescan Panel can also be used to measure its short-term effects on sales for fast moving consumer goods. This research makes use of original single source data collected by Nielsen: magazine scans.

25

The influence of advertising on the pattern of food consumption in the UK

This paper researches whether the food processing industry influences household diet through advertising, using an advertising-augmented Rotterdam model for eleven broad food groupings spanning 1969-1996. The econometric estimates reveal no evidence of advertising affecting demand for food at the expense of non-food demand and minimal evidence of advertising effecting the product composition of any given level of total food demand.