City populations can and do change. Both New York’s Manhattan Island and Houston’s population grew from about 200,000 to 1,000,000 in a single generation (50 year period). As Manhattan was an island it had to grow up, whereas Houston had options and instead chose to grow out.

Hamilton can choose to follow either Manhattan or Houston.

Should Hamilton choose to grow up its historical dairy (animal feed) industry will continue to play a big part in its wealth. Should Hamilton choose to grow out then its animal feed based industry will disappear under a forest of sprawling novelty trees, roofs and tarseal.

I haven’t read into the details of the Hamilton City District Plan, but to look around, it seems clear that intensification is not happening nearly as much as sprawl. Such heavy reliance on cars as the only form of transportation will have an increasing drain on the economy. Young people are looking for more urban, multimodal transport environments and if Hamilton cannot provide this, they will leave for places that do.

Another risk, is that as quickly as Auckland is sprawling south, Hamilton is sprawling north, and the environmental consequences of eating up all that country side with housing and roads, is no more productive soils for food, heavy reliance on cars for transportation and the huge risk if something happens like oil prices skyrocket or climate change makes food production less reliable.

The surrounding towns such as Te Awamutu and Cambridge are already in the process of sprawling into the country side, and the current fragmentation of local government is not helping. If the Hamilton Urban Area identified in the image above was controlled by one council instead of three or four, land use regulation and transport planning might be more effective.

The current orgy of road building around Hamilton’s north and east are locking in a future of car dependence and reliance on fossil fuels without providing for real alternatives such as public transport and cycling.

Peter H

May 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm

I like the comment “People will be forced into high-density housing because traditional housing and traditional development has been stymied”
Maybe he is suggesting people are being forced to live in a place like Netherville just under 3,000 people per sq. km Or Hilda Ross at about 5,000 people per sq. km and the comment “traditional housing” Not sure what is being built out in northern suburb is “tradition housing”. They are not traditional suburbs where you have the option of walking to local shops, like were most people in Hamilton choose to live.

Peter H

May 26, 2014 at 9:27 pm

I like the comment “People will be forced into high-density housing because traditional housing and traditional development has been stymied”
Maybe he is suggesting people are being forced to live in a place like Netherville just under 3,000 people per sq. km Or Hilda Ross at about 5,000 people per sq. km and the comment “traditional housing” Not sure what is being built out in northern suburb is “tradition housing”. They are not traditional suburbs where you have the option of walking to local shops, like were most people in Hamilton choice to live.