Right now, Ed Miliband is looking more likely. Not because he’s a genius, but because the odds are stacked so heavily in Labour’s favour. It’s very close, and this could change. But the election is his to lose.

David Cameron, because he looks, and sounds, like a Prime Minister, even if what he says isn’t what you want to hear – unlike Ed Miliband who can’t even do a plausible impersonation of a Leader of the Opposition and is encumbered with Ed Balls.

What will be their majority?

Between 4 and 10 seats.

Who will be the star of the campaign?

Probably Cameron himself if he pulls out some hidden resources and a convincing sense of mission. This could be the secret campaign theme: Cameron as you’ve never seen him before. To compete for stardom with Boris, he has to play “The Serious One” versus “The Entertaining One”.

Ed Miliband. Because he’ll have put together an offer that convinces richer people that he’ll improve society and poorer people that they will be the beneficiaries.

What will be their majority?

The days of landslides are over, but I forecast a workable overall majority, with 347 Labour seats.

Who will be the star of the campaign?

Hopefully, inspiring people from outside the mould. Rob Halfon, the Tory MP for Harlow, who champions blue-collar workers or Sophy Gardner, Labour’s candidate in Gloucester, a past RAF wing commander who served in Iraq and Afghanistan

What will be the big issues?

The economy, living standards, housing, the NHS, immigration – and Europe as a sub-strand.

Any surprises?

Nick Clegg looks vulnerable in Sheffield.

How will Ukip do?

Much less well than Nigel Farage might think. I’d say they’ll get less than 10 per cent of the vote – though Farage may get a seat.

David Cameron, because his record is sufficiently strong, Ukip will have peaked and Ed Miliband, though much more impressive than I thought in 2010, is insufficiently prime ministerial in bearing.

What will be their majority?

Small and possibly non-existent – don’t rule out a coalition.

Who will be the star of the campaign?

Boris, if he stands as an MP (as he should).

What will be the big issues?

The economy, of course, but also the character of the recovery. Is it truly national or statistical and of little relevance to most people? Labour will try to tempt Cameron to go too far on immigration.

Any surprises?

Osborne will be deployed more than in 2010 as the face of resilience. There will be a row about the “race card” and at least one big drugs story. Tory splits over Europe will appear.

How will Ukip do?

Badly in their attempt to win seats. But they could hand plenty of marginals to Labour.

Ed Miliband will be PM in a LibLab coalition. The Tories stand to be the largest party, but they will be cheated of an overall majority because unreformed constituency boundaries give Labour an inbuilt advantage. Even small-scale Ukip support will lose the Tories seats in some marginals. Left-leaning Lib Dem grass roots who hate being in coalition with the Tories may defect to Labour and won’t countenance another Tory/Lib Dem coalition. The voters will be nervous about a Miliband premiership, because of questions about his competence on the economy and because of his image. He’s beginning to sound not just nerdy, but unctuous.

What will be their majority?

No overall majority for one party.

Who will be the star of the campaign?

Boris, Nigel Farage and Tessa Jowell. Dame Tessa will be limbering up for the London mayoral elections. With her mixture of charm and steel, Labour would be mad not to give her a starring role. Boris is always a star and Nasty Nige could yet hold the ring, even if Ukip fails to win seats itself.

David Cameron, because an improving economy will come to his rescue and voters don’t trust Ed Miliband to run the country.

What will be their majority?

Marginal at best. There would have to be a monumental turnaround in the polls for the Tories to win a big majority.

Who will be the star of the campaign?

Unlikely though it may seem, George Osborne, who may be a somewhat cold figure, but has earned considerable respect for his handling of the economy.

What will be the big issues?

The economy, inequality/living standards, immigration. Europe only an issue in so far as it affects the immigration debate. Otherwise it is irrelevant.

Any surprises?

Biggest upset would be caused by a “yes” vote in the Scottish referendum. Cameron would feel obliged to resign, significant economic uncertainties would be created and it would raise big questions about the length of the next parliament.