Warshal: Who motivated Trump on his Jerusalem decision?

Lindsay Moore / FPG

FPGJJBSretirement0409C FPG Photo/Lindsay Moore 4/2/2009 Rabbi Bruce Warshal of the Liberal Jewish Temple of Coconut Creek listens to temple members speak about him during his retirement luncheon at the Palm-Aire Country Club in Pompano Beach, Thursday, April 2, 2009. ORG XMIT: FPG0904031613333236

FPGJJBSretirement0409C FPG Photo/Lindsay Moore 4/2/2009 Rabbi Bruce Warshal of the Liberal Jewish Temple of Coconut Creek listens to temple members speak about him during his retirement luncheon at the Palm-Aire Country Club in Pompano Beach, Thursday, April 2, 2009. ORG XMIT: FPG0904031613333236 (Lindsay Moore / FPG)

Early last month Donald Trump shocked the world by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and promising to move the American embassy there from Tel Aviv. Of course, Jerusalem has been the de facto capital since Israel's inception. The Knesset and its ministries have been based there. But international law, based on the United Nation's recognition and partition plan of 1947, declared Jerusalem as an international city, neither under Arab nor Jewish sovereignty.

This "fiction" has played a crucial role in sustaining the possibility of a two-state solution with the Palestinians sharing Jerusalem as the capital of both states. Trump's recognizing Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel tells the Palestinians and the world that, although the two-state solution was comatose and barely breathing, America proclaims it officially dead.

Pundits, commentators, editors, bloggers, talking heads and cocktail party guests have had a feast speculating on the ramifications of this change of policy. Certainly, it is one of the dumber ideas coming from this administration. But I am not going to add my two cents to that cacophony. I am interested in only one question: What forces motivated Trump to make this move?

The easy answer is that it was pressure from powerful Jewish and evangelical lobbies, but that is too simplistic. I believe that it was a combination of five factors: money, evangelicals, Jews (to a lesser degree), personal advisors, and his own fragile psychological makeup.

Money is always first, especially with Trump. It is speculated that the casino king, Sheldon Adelson, was probably the single largest contributor to the Trump campaign. He is a prominent supporter of a one-state solution – a Greater Israel from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River with Jerusalem as its capital. He is also noted for demanding an appropriate quid pro quo. He invests money and he expects returns.

Conservative apologists have denied Trump's debt to Adelson, citing Trump's personal wealth. Since he refuses to divulge any financials, including his tax returns, we have no idea the extent of this wealth or how much of his own money he invested in the campaign. My bet is that Trump owes Adelson a lot, which is probably an understatement.

A major factor is his desire to please the evangelical community. In the presidential race 87% of their vote went to Trump, even higher than the support they gave to George W. Bush, a fellow evangelical. And the power of the evangelical lobby is immense within this administration. Evangelicals are the foundation of his small but solid support base (floating somewhere in the 30-percentiles).

The American Israeli lobby should not be blamed for this decision, although they will not criticize Trump's actions, after the fact. AIPAC, ADL, AJC and other mainstream centers of power did not hold the Jerusalem issue as a high priority. They lobbied hard on aid to Israel, anti-BDS (boycott, divestment, sanctions), protection of Israel in the United Nations, and other important issues. Only ZOA, a fringe group controlled by Adelson, pushed for Jerusalem as the capital. As a critic of the Jewish establishment, I must admit that for once they are not guilty.

The Orthodox Jewish community is strongly pro-Trump, and through Jared Kushner they may have had some effect, but not a decisive factor. Remember that only 25% of American Jews voted for Trump.

It is common knowledge that Trump is not the brightest person in the room. Thus, he relies heavily on his close advisors, most of whom are either Jews or evangelicals, with a noted absence of main line Christians. His personal lawyer, Jay Sekulow, is a Messianic Jew (an oxymoron, but that's for another column) and Trump has his own Evangelical Advisory Board. Personal evangelical advisors play a major role for this neophyte president.

Finally, Trump's own Narcissistic Personality Disorder contributed to his decision. He must always be in the public eye. To do this he exclaims outrageous statements, witness his tweeter record. He longs to be the center of attention, even on slow news days, especially on the weekend, when he can dominate the news cycle.

A dramatic change of a 70-year-old American policy on Jerusalem coincides well with this desire for attention – and certainly adulation from his close advisors and friends.

Whatever the motivation, it was still a dumb decision that the whole world must now confront.