The prickly groundhog saw his shadow (tears!) at Gobbler's Knob, a small hill outside Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on Thursday, February 2. Per a long-held folksy hypothesis here in America, spring would have come early if he hadn’t seen his shadow.

Phil could turn out to be wrong, however. According to USA Today, the groundhog has been right 14 times and wrong 15 times since 1988.

“There is no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of the analysis," according to a report by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina.