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LONDON – In the coming fortnight, tensions between Ukraine and Russia enter a new phase following Russia’s decision to throttle back the amount of gas it provides to Ukraine. The decision underscores that the Kremlin views energy supply as a key component of its foreign policy, and in the case of Ukraine, energy has proven to be a particularly effective lever. EU nations have urged Ukraine to make a substantial down payment on the debt it already owes Russia for gas, and thanks to a new bailout agreement with IMF it should be able to do so. Such a payment would help facilitate larger negotiations over gas prices that Ukraine and Russia must work out in the coming months. Hanging over these talks is the specter of Russia’s 2009 decision to entirely stop the flow of gas to Ukraine. Steven Eke, Control Risks’ senior Ukraine analyst, explains in a new podcast that such a move is unlikely to be repeated given its potential to harm the reputation of Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy company.

A June 17 pipeline explosion in northeastern Ukraine adds a new dimension to Kiev’s energy security concerns. The pipeline blast was almost surely not accidental, which is a worrying development. “So far there have been no attacks on physical infrastructure,” Eke notes. “If this is an indication of the trajectory of the unrest in Ukraine, it’s concerning.”

In the United States, the coming weeks will witness more of the fallout from the surprise defeat of Eric Cantor, the Republican House Majority Leader in Congress, at the hands of a Tea Party–backed primary challenger. Until now, the Republican Party establishment had been largely successful in defeating Tea Party challengers, and Control Risks Managing Director Michael Moran suggests Cantor’s loss will not substantially upend the overall temperament of House leadership or the Republican strategy heading into the November 2014 midterm elections. However, in the short term, corporate tax reform and immigration reform—two business-related items on the congressional docket—seem less likely to proceed.

As the calendar turns to July, Indonesia’s presidential campaign enters its final leg, pitting Jakarta's popular governor, Joko Widodo, against former general Prabowo Subianto. Widodo is favored to win, but has given up some ground in recent polls to an opponent with a deep war chest and strong leadership credentials. A Widodo victory could portend more substantive institutional reforms in Indonesia’s government, but as Senior Indonesia Analyst Stephen Norris notes, whoever wins “will come atop parliamentary coalitions that have lots of connections to business cronies.”

The RiskMap Podcast is a fortnightly look at global business risks in the coming weeks. You can subscribe to it here.