Just like a farmer who's only as good at his/her crops, a trader is only as good as her/ her P/L. No farmer can predict the weather with any accuracy by studying maps just like no trader can predict the market with charts, but that's not the point. The point is to use the KNOWN data to make the most rewarding bet pay on a consistent basis. Loss is inevitable, risk is necessary and leverage is dependent on many factors.

The odds of a bounce here are very good because its a low volume shortened holiday week. The market will still try to shake out the wise guys who thought they nailed the "bottom" before the Santa rally. It's always nice ego boost to look in the rear view mirror and realize you did catch the knife just before it hit the floor with no blood loss, but it's extremely bad policy to believe you can do it because you "timed it just right."

As far as the algo's go, I've been stopped out on the penny and have missed order fills also by $.01. It sucks sometimes, but you can't get pissed at the pit boss when everyone else at the table is playing with all the same casino deck. They know this and program the bots to do exactly that to benefit the house. Point is to understand the rules and risk of playing not to try to "beat" the system.

it's not clear from what you wrote, but it looks like you're trying to distinguish weather from climate. predicting the weather for individual days is exceedingly more difficult than predicting generalized climate (although, monkey 'climatologists' have yet to produce a reliable model for alleged climate change). timing individual stocks is more difficult, but it can absolutely be done more often than not.

this is where it becomes a lessen in psychology. i refer to market movers as monkeys figuratively but also literally. people are slaves to their behaviors, like all animals. it doesn't matter if we're talking about welfare recipients or multi-billionaires. as a group, they will exhibit predictable behaviors. we probably agree on these assumptions. but i think that you are using a more generalized prediction for all stocks, and i'm identifying aapl as an exception that deserves special treatment.

aapl is not like most of the piss stocks out there, we're not looking for a bottom (like the garbage solar stocks i own). we're merely looking for an end to the sell off which signals the return to the longer-term strong uptrend. the strong movement today confirms the bottom. it's very unlikely to drop to 500 before next earnings. maybe 525, but 540 seems about the lowest it might go in a bottom test. why do i say this, because whoever the market movers are, they are relatively predictable in the way they trade this specific stock. i certainly didn't expect the stock to drop as much as it did because i bought it much earlier, but i can recognize when it has bottomed and realize that a deal like that (530) for aapl happens once a year at most.

it's not clear from what you wrote, but it looks like you're trying to distinguish weather from climate. predicting the weather for individual days is exceedingly more difficult than predicting generalized climate (although, monkey 'climatologists' have yet to produce a reliable model for alleged climate change).

Just using a metaphor wherein doing your homework in order to find an entry can pay off or bite you in the ass. In the end, you don't have a choice about the outcome - you can only work with the tools and data available at present time.

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timing individual stocks is more difficult, but it can absolutely be done more often than not.

Sure, in the rearview mirror. My argument is that not only is trying to "pick" winning stocks a losing proposition, but timing them is even more asinine. Again, anyone can pick stocks yesterday just like anyone can get a royal flush if they sit there long enough. Do you go to the casino with the idea you're going to pick your winning hands? Do you go to the race track thinking you can pick which horse wins without seeing the program first? Fools are easily parted with their money and Vegas wasn't built on winners. The goal *should never* be to pick the winners unless you're Jim Cramer and have no problem embarrassing yourself. The goal is always to quantify odds and understand the risk.

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and i'm identifying aapl as an exception that deserves special treatment.

aapl is not like most of the piss stocks out there

It's not an exception and will certainly be looked at like a "piss" stock one day, just like I said before. It's the market's job to make you believe it's special to keep you buying and buying cause it will go up forever....until it doesn't anymore. INTC was "special" in 99 and doubled into 2000. How's it looking now?

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the strong movement today confirms the bottom.

And you bought it?

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why do i say this, because whoever the market movers are, they are relatively predictable in the way they trade this specific stock. i certainly didn't expect the stock to drop as much as it did

The MM's are predictable but what they do is unexpected? You just shot your own theory to hell, brother.

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i can recognize when it has bottomed and realize that a deal like that (530) for aapl happens once a year at most.

At which price was it a "deal" and did you buy at that price? If you can predict the bottom and bought at $530, you certainly weren't patient enough to follow your own instincts cause you could have got it for less.

I'd be long at $530 to fill the gap if $550 fails as support. Otherwise, the bulls haven't proven anything yet as the trend is still down and it's still the bears to lose. If $500 fails, watch out..it will be at $425 in a hurry.

I'd consider a weekly hold above $600 a bullish reversal. $970 final destination if there's no resistance at $700.

I'd be long at $530 to fill the gap if $550 fails as support. Otherwise, the bulls haven't proven anything yet as the trend is still down and it's still the bears to lose. If $500 fails, watch out..it will be at $425 in a hurry.

I'd consider a weekly hold above $600 a bullish reversal. $970 final destination if there's no resistance at $700.

This Thread is more than 685 days old. It is very likely that it does not need any further discussion and thus bumping it serves no purpose.If you still feel it is necessary to make a new reply you may do so.
I am aware that this Thread is rather old but I still want to make a reply.

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