Will voters elect a Bush again?

His big brother helped drag the GOP to two consecutive thrashings at the polls, but former Gov. Jeb Bush’s prospective Senate candidacy is nevertheless getting a hero’s welcome from Florida Republicans.

To them, President George W. Bush’s record-low approval ratings are irrelevant, and the idea of Bush fatigue is immaterial. In the wake of the announcement by Republican Sen. Mel Martinez that he will not seek a second term, GOP sentiment is coalescing around the counterintuitive idea that the best way to keep the seat in Republican hands is to place a Bush atop Florida’s GOP ballot in 2010.

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While Bush hasn’t yet committed to running for the open Senate seat — in an e-mail Tuesday he told Politico, “I am considering it” — Florida Republicans, including other potential aspirants for the seat, were effusive about a potential Bush bid.

“Jeb Bush is a complete rock star in Florida and that’s just a fact,” said Joe Negron, a former Republican state legislator and congressional candidate who has campaigned with Bush in the past. “I’ve seen it personally.”

“I strongly hope that Jeb runs. He would be an extraordinary senator and leader,” added GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart. “You are not going to find a Republican in the nation who’s more popular with Hispanics.”

Diaz-Balart notes the high level of support Jeb Bush enjoyed upon leaving office after two terms, which stands in stark contrast to his brother, whose job performance was disapproved by nearly two-thirds of those surveyed in the latest Gallup tracking poll.

“Some have asked whether the Bush name is tarnished because of his brother, but I don’t believe it is,” said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida professor who is an expert on Florida politics. “Jeb left office with one of the highest approval ratings, and two years later, he’s still popular even though he’s taken a low profile since leaving office.”

If there is a degree of Bush blowback, Republicans interviewed for this story agreed, it’s likely to be fleeting.

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“My guess is if you took a poll now there might be some residue [from his brother]. His overall approval rating might not be what it was two years ago but it would still be high because he’s his own person,” said a source close to the former two-term Florida governor. “Still, once the dust settles, Jeb re-emerges and people understand who Jeb Bush is again, I think he does very well. And two years in politics is a very long time and a whole different ball game.”

The Republican optimism is in part driven by the notion, prevalent among Republicans but also acknowledged by some outside the party, that voters will make sharp distinctions between the two Bushes.

Their widely divergent responses to natural disasters that confronted their administrations are at the heart of this thinking. While the president is forever saddled with the ineptitude of the federal government’s response to Hurricane Katrina, Jeb Bush is lauded for his hands-on role in confronting several highly destructive hurricanes.

“Hurricanes alone distinguish him from his brother,” said MacManus. “He made a name as an emergency manager and made Florida the go-to state for emergency response.”

Republican Rep. Adam Putnam, who has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the Senate seat, agreed that hurricane response was a significant part of Jeb Bush’s legacy because he was decisive, empathetic and clearly in command.

“I think that his connection to Floridians became very strong as a result of that hurricane season. He was seen as someone who not only brought intellectual heft but someone who understood loss and could comfort people in need,” said Putnam.

There is little evidence to suggest voters have ever held one Bush accountable for the other’s actions or confused the two in any way. In 2002, for example, two years after the polarizing presidential election in which Florida played a controversial role in the determining the outcome, Jeb Bush won reelection against a formidable Democratic opponent by an even greater margin than when he won the seat in 1998.