Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny To See Increased Volume After Mike Davis’ Departure

If you’ve had any fantasy football success over the last couple seasons, odds are you’ve avoided the Seattle backfield entirely. Between Mike Davis, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and some others mixed in, the Seahawks running back strategy has been pretty heavily committee-based. But with Davis now under contract with the Bears, his 146 touches and over 700 total yards from 2018 are now up for grabs. Carson clearly has the upper hand coming off a season of leading the team in rushing, but the door is open for either guy to emerge as a fantasy weapon in 2019.

Chris Carson got a huge bump in playing time in his 2nd season and took full advantage — in 14 starts he rushed for 1,151 yards and 9 TDs while adding another 163 yards on 20 catches. Even with Seattle’s committee approach, Carson amassed the 7th-most rush attempts in football and converted it into the 5th-most yards. He’s definitely the team’s RB1 as the 2019 season approaches, but Rashaad Penny‘s success in his rookie season should not be ignored.

Penny only carried the ball 85 times in 14 games last season — he missed 2 games in December with a knee injury — but finished the year with 4.9 yards/carry, the highest rate of Seattle’s 3 backs. He showed flashes of big-play ability when given the opportunity, and Pete Carroll seems excited about the jump he could make in year 2.

“He’s going to be really good. He showed it again the other night [rushing for 29 yards on 4 carries in Seattle’s Wild Card Round loss to Dallas]. He’s going to be a really good player for us. It gives us a tremendous one, two punch… The competition, we’ll play that out.”

Carroll has repeatedly referred to Carson and Penny throughout the offseason as a “one-two punch” but has typically added, “I don’t know who’s one or who’s two.” Logic says that Carson will assume lead back duties, but Penny will certainly get his opportunities to show what he can do, especially with Davis out of the picture. Carson is currently The Wolf’s RB19 for 2019, while Penny sits at RB35. Regardless of who obtains the upper hand coming out of training camp, things are looking just a little bit less crowded for the NFL’s leading rushing offense from 2018.

Bottom Line: Pass-catching specialist, who? Christian McCaffrey returned to his college workhorse roots under new OC Norv Turner, and quickly put up Fantasy MVP-worthy numbers. He continued to flash his otherworldly receiving abilities, hauling in an NFL record 106 catches for 875 yards and 6 TDs. Yet where the usage really rose was the carries, as McCaffrey nearly doubled his 2017 total for 215 carries, 1080 yards, and 7 scores. These 321 total touches ranked third behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, and this newfound volume created the ultimate ceiling / floor combination. In the process, McCaffrey flashed both the elusiveness, breakaway ability, and most shockingly underrated power to redefine the workhorse model.

​New OC Norv Turner deserves immense credit for this outburst. His previous work with LaDanian Tomlinson proved he wasn't afraid to ride a smaller-back, as he's able to scheme his guys in space and in creative outside gaps versus just blasting them up the gut... but even still, never before had an NFL back played nearly 97% of the team's snaps. Yes, this number inevitably will fall in 2019, but McCaffrey should still hover around 85-90%, especially with Turner returning. Expect a similar buffet of weekly volume with the upside for even more efficiency should the Panthers beef up their line while their explosive young wideouts take a next step forward.

Ceiling Projection: 320 touches (100 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs

Floor Projection*: 270 touches (70 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 7 TDs

Actual Projection: 310 touches (90 rec), 1900 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs

*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games