August in Japan: heat continues, typhoons come and go, holiday rush gets roads and trains and planes clogged, colorful matsuri celebrations and fireworks all over, barbeques and beer gardens. All this contrasted by seriousness of Hiroshima and Nagasaki memorial days, not to mention the Very Serious annual high school baseball tournament at Koshien stadium.
It's the 100th year for Koshien, but even after seeing it 30 times I remain perplexed how big attention it gets in the media and among people all across Japan. Newscasters keep warning people from the perils of hot weather, to drink a lot of water and avoid heavy duty in sun – so far 300 has died and 70,000 taken to hospital – yet they forget all and turn starry eyed when talking about the young boys from all over Japan sweating it out in full gear and helmets on this sundrenched dusty field in Osaka. In contrast, professional baseball and football is played in evenings when it's supposedly cooler. (It's not that much cooler but the intention is there anyway.)
Hiroshima memorial event on Monday morning was 73rd and first one after the UN nuclear weapon ban treaty signed by 122 countries – excluding all who has them and others who doubted its effectiveness - like Japan and Finland. Reflecting recent changes in global politics City Mayor's speech was, if possible, even more serious and gloomy than usually. Quoting "certain countries proclaiming self-centered nationalism" and "rekindling Cold War-era tensions", he requested "intelligent" global leaders to join the treaty and eliminate nuclear weapons, not build more. As well, Japan government should continue manifest pacifism and lead the dialogue.
We all wish it was so simple: there's 14,000 nuclear weapons stored around the world ready to shoot at other countries and while none has been used since Hiroshima and Nagasaki thanks to responsible enough leaders who have controlled them, there's no guarantee this will continue. There's been increasing talk of lowering the threshold for "tactical" nuclear weapons as well as worry that outright criminals get hold of them. The biggest worry with so many weapons, experts say, is unintended launch by system malfunction or faulty information with one error leading to multiple others.
Japan's position is ambiguous: it keeps talking about its historical pacifist mission, yet relies on US nuclear weapon "umbrella" for its protection against nuclear China, now even North Korea. As doubts are increasing about America's reliability under current volatile, erratic president, they point Japan to the opposite direction: to have a nuclear weapon of its own. In Europe, too, rapid erosion of trust in USA is speeding up talks of improving own defense capabilities and nuclear weapons are an unavoidable part of the equation. Germany, loaded with history related pacifism like Japan, is said to contemplate closer link to French nuclear weapons starting with financing them.
POLITICS
None of this enter the public debate here, of course. Politics is now totally focused on how Abe-san will re-organize his government and party after his re-election in September; who will get what seat and where will he direct the expected extra public spending. First comes courtesy and vows of allegiance: using his position Abe is inviting provincial party bosses one by one to Prime Minister's Official Residence for lunch and dinner to secure their votes. Post-election, it will be rewards and revenge.
According Nagatacho speculations, Ishiba-san will be banished from all party positions for his uppity to stand against The Boss and even Kishida-san will be demoted for making his decision not to run too late.
Wataru Takeshita, 71 year old faction leader who gained fame for his opposition to proposed anti-smoking law, seem to feel strong enough to play kingmaker for Abe while the helpless Nobuteru Ishihara might get back in minister line-up simply for his loyal support. It sounds so much like Trump and his hopeless bunch of henchmen: in today, out tomorrow. Well, at least Abe-san does his changes orderly and carefully calculated. He also has good manners.
As for spending the precious tax money, Japanese politicians have now got obsession for new Shinkansen lines. It's probably better than obsession for building walls, but I can neither fathom why there should be tremendously expensive high speed lines in far out provinces where population is shrinking fast. In fact, there's no less than three proposals with two of them running the length of the main island at Japan Sea side – unpolite Tokyoites call it Ura-Nihon or back country "Perakyla" - and one across the country in North – call it Kajaani to Oulu or North to South Dakota. Both Japan Sea side proposals - one from Yamaguchi via Tottori to Kyoto, the other from Toyama via Niigata to Aomori - are building further on Nagano Shinkansen's extension to Kanazawa three years ago and its further extension from there to Kansai already decided to be built 2030-45. The new projects should obviously come after that, so you can't blame provincial politicians for lack of long term thinking! They all know they depend on money from Tokyo – today and 30 years later.
We know the Kanazawa extension has been successful – my train to Karuizawa is these days always full of tourist from Tokyo to there - but cannot understand where they will find paying customers to fill expensive trains running from province to province with declining population. Even normal cheaper trains there are hardly ever full today.
BUREAUCRATS
More puzzling ideas come from Olympic arrangers. So far all preparations have gone well: the new wooden stadium is already up to full height, Toyota's self-driving electric buses wait to haul athletes in their village and NEC's face recognition system will check their ID's at the venues.
Tickets will start to sell next spring worldwide at reasonable prices on level with London.
The unavoidable mascots were selected by school children in February and look quite OK, but now wonder who selected their names last month? Hard to believe that children would come up with such word monsters like Miraitowa and Someity! Play with Japanese words they might be, but thoroughly incomprehensible and unpronounceable in any other language.
Afraid the source can be traced to same people who last week selected a traditional manzai comedian to plan the opening ceremony spectacle. It's a relief that it was not Mr. Akimoto of AKB fame, so the world don't have witness Japanese male adults' affection to schoolgirls in uniforms, short skirts and long boots, but why did they have to go to the other extreme? Surely telling jokes in Osaka dialect and making funny faces is not a good starting point for creating a grand spectacle watched by millions of multicultural television viewers around the world.
BUSINESS
Once you turn the focus from petty politicians and bungling bureaucrats to business and finance, the news change to positive immediately. Stock values have continued to do well in line with US stocks and there was a whiff of national pride when Tokyo Stock Exchange regained its old No.2 global position back from Shanghai. Chinese stocks are 14% down this year and the CNY has declined over 10% against USD and JPY. Shows how China, always clever, is preparing against 25% tariff threats from Trump before they even take place.
In corporate results, Sony's last quarter profit was 10 year record high and it upped its full-year estimate to JPY 500 billion (USD 4,5 billion). It's not just the games that are selling well: it also benefitted generously from its investment into Spotify. Panasonic profit was doing well, too, with batteries and electronics to cars including US Tesla leading the way. Sharp seem to continue on its way up with restructuring under its Taiwan management and Fujitsu announced it will sell off its non-profitable mobile phones business to a special company set up by Itochu and Sumitomo.
The electronic makers all pale in comparison to their old customer Softbank, whose quarter profit soared 50 times up from year ago thanks to USD 2,4 billion value rise in its Softbank Vision investment fund. It also booked USD 1,5 billion one-time gain from selling off the Chinese operation of its British semiconductor company. Son-san is said to plan listing his original core business, the Softbank mobile carrier, and the latest estimate put its value at USD 90 billion which would make it the biggest IPO ever. Amazing financial wizard, this little guy from humble background in Kita Kyushu!
There's been joy at Toyota, too. Just wonder which delighted Akio-shacho more: standing personally on podium to receive the trophy for Toyota finally winning the Thousand Lakes Rally in Jyvaskyla, Finland or the highest ever quarter profit USD 5,9 billion? True to his character, he stayed reserved about the latter and kept the estimate for full-year at 15% down. Costs are already rising in US factories from steel tariffs and there's USD 4,5 billion risk loss if Trump threat for 25% car and car parts duty is realised. It's over USD 10 billion bill totally for Japanese car makers, a huge blow nationally, and it's up for talks this month with Trump's hatchetman Lightizer here to present His Master's demands that Japan should fulfill or else...
He sure got his timing right with atomic bombs 73 years ago. Then Japan surrendered. Wonder what will happen this time.