Two Ohio Polls Since Trump Tape Release, Sunday Debate: The Donald Increases Lead

Ohio voters continue to support GOP presidential candidate Donald J. Trump after both the release of a lewd tape featuring Trump and his debate Sunday with Democratic rival Hillary R. Clinton, according to two polls conducted by the We the People Convention Oct. 8 and Oct. 11 with likely Ohio voters.

Ohio voters in the first poll of 1,539 likely voters supported Trump with 46 percent of the electorate compared with 40 percent for Clinton, said Tom Zawistowski, the executive director of We the People Convention. The Oct. 8 poll carries a 2.46 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Libertarian Gary Johnson was the choice of four percent of the voters and the Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein was the choice of one percent, the radio host of TEA Party Talk with Tom Z. said.

The Oct. 8 poll was not planned to capture the reaction to the tape controversy; rather it was meant to be part of a before-and-after for the debate, he said.

The respondents were asked: When you talk to people in your community about the presidential election, who do most of them say they are going to vote for? Forty-nine percent said Trump, 32 percent said Clinton.

Ninety-one percent of the respondents said they were aware of the lewd tape and 76 percent said they planned to watch the presidential debate.

In the Oct. 11 poll, Zawistowski said We the People went back to the original sample population and 473 voters responded.

The second poll, taken the day after the debate, showed 50 percent supported Trump and 39 percent supported the former first lady. The second poll carries a 3.75 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Johnson and Stein did not participate in the debate, and the Libertarian’s support fell to three percent, while no respondents chose Stein, which is a reflection of the small sample population in the second poll.

Zawistowski said the poll shows that before the debate Trump had a six percentage point lead in the aftermath of the lewd tape’s release, but three days later and after the debate Trump has a 12 percentage point lead.

Respondents were asked in the Oct. 11 poll: Since the debate Sunday, over the past two days, when you talk to people in your community about the presidential election, who do most of them say will vote for now? Trump was the answer from 46 percent and Clinton was the choice of 36 percent.

The polls were conducted from a list of 45,105 registered voters in Ohio, randomly selected from a list of 4.5 million current land lines in the state. In the Oct. 8 poll, 1,539 participated, for a response rate of 3.4 percent. In the Oct. 11, poll, only the 1,539 were contacted and 473 responded, for a 30.7 percent response rate.