" In case no one has
noticed, the Obama administration just gifted Lebanon to
Iran. Washington earlier presented Iraq, Afghanistan, the
Gulf, and Pakistan. Could it be more clear that Iran's strategic trump
card is America's subservience to Israel? For Iran, Israel's
strangle hold on the US government is the gift that keeps on giving."
With this comment, my neighbor, Lebanese Human Rights Ambassador Ali
Khalil, declared American hegemony in the region was on a slippery and
descending slope and that yesterday's political maneuvering in Lebanon likely
accelerated American withdrawal .

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My other neighbors in
South Beirut appeared to go to bed early last night following the day's events
which saw the collapse of Lebanon's US-Saudi and Israeli backed government.
Some, like my American and Lebanese roommates were planning for quick
evacuations should our Hezbollah neighborhood-watch guys give us that
special knock on the door. Two rapid raps and a shouted "Yalla!" (Let's go) and
it's time to head north fast without looking back. The reason is because, like
many here, some neighbors fear Israel might use this latest government crisis
to invade Lebanon again.

Yesterday, our
"government" electricity (and internet) was cut from 10 a.m. until
2 p.m. and again from 6 p.m. to midnight. At least ten hour
daily power cuts is the norm south and north of the pro-US/Saudi Hamra
"chic" district, where three hours or less daily power cuts are
experienced. Spending lots of hours in candle light probably made the
unsubstantiated rumors even more unsettling. "The armed forces of
Lebanon, Hezbollah and its allies, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Israel and Iran are
on military alert. The Americans may send battalions from Iraq!", The young man
who works in the phone shop near my flat whispered. I could not help noticing
that some of the young men normally hanging out in our hood seemed to have
vanished. Even my phone card guy was impatient with me wanting to recharge my
phone, " please hurry", he said, "I have an appointment and need to close my
shop."

The
assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri

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The current
government crisis has its origins in the February 14, 2005 Valentine's Day
murder of Lebanon's prime minister Rafic Hariri and 20 others. The Bush
administration declared Syria responsible and saw an opportunity to force
the Assad regime to drop its friendship with Washington's regional
nemesis Iran, and to end its support for the National Lebanese Resistance led
by Hezbollah.

One of Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice's State Department lawyers came up with the idea to use
the UN Security Council to set up a Special Tribunal for
Lebanon (STL)
to try Hariri's killers and to hammer Syria into warming to Israel and to US
projects for the region.

What was not
considered at the time, but later became a godsend from the points of view of
Israel and the Bush administration was leaked STL information
claiming that Hezbollah members might also be involved in the assassination.
Hardly believing, one imagines, their really good luck, Israel and the US
abruptly changed directions and decided to use the newly formed Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) to rid themselves of Hezbollah once and for all as
well as to correct Syria's behavior, believing that the Syrian government would
also be indicted.

The pressure on
Hezbollah caused the party to condemn what it claims is false witnesses
and it strongly urged the Lebanese government to open a case against them and
not allow the STL, which it and others believe has became fatally politicized
by rushing to judgment, to receive Lebanese government
cooperation. Hezbollah's adversaries hailed the tribunal even if
Lebanon's stability was endangered. After nearly fourteen months of
trying to get the Saad Hariri government to seriously reconsider its positions
on the STL, the Hezbollah led opposition gave the majority an ultimatum either
to call a cabinet meeting by January 12, 2011 to discuss the STL or the
opposition Cabinet members would resign. What Hezbollah and its allies
wanted was for PM Hariri to convene a Cabinet session to consider whether to
stop payment of Lebanon's 49 percent share of the financing of the STL,
whether to withdraw the Lebanese judges from the tribunal, consider
ending all cooperation with the STL, and prosecuting the "false
witnesses" it claimed was linked to the UN probe into Rafik Hariri's killing.

Under enormous
pressure from Washington, Paris and Riyadh , Saad balked. The
opposition quickly resigned. Under article 69 the Lebanese Constitution, the
resignation of one-third plus one of Cabinet members automatically leads to the
collapse of the 30-member government. It was the first time in Lebanon's
politically turbulent history that a government collapsed under pressure of the
resignations of one-third plus one of its members.

In order to secure
the eleventh cabinet resignation, to add to Hezbollah's ten, in order to bring
down the pro-US government, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah's key political aide Hussein Khalil, called President
Suleiman's Cabinet designee, Sayyed Hussein. Khalil reportedly conveyed
Nasrallah's greetings and his hope that Hussein would decide what to do based
on his conscience. Hussein's resignation quickly followed and Hariri's
Premiership ended as he sat with President Obama at the White House.

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What
the toppling of the Hariri government means for the near term

Regional players
reacted more or less predictably with the US accusing Iran, Syria and Hezbollah
of "blackmail', the French warning Syria that is would be held to account if
there is violence in Lebanon and the British warning of long term
dangers. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement: "This is
an extremely serious development which could have grave implications for
Lebanon and for regional stability." One British diplomat added last this
evening, "Good Grief, however can we resolve this problem anytime soon?"

Israeli Foreign
Ministry officials said they were "carefully following events" in Lebanon
following the resignations and that "The Lebanese understand that an attempt by
extremist to disturb the peace may turn out as a perilous gamble,"
according to Israeli TV Channel 10. Israel is being accused
today in Lebanon of trying to provoke strife and to gain advantage from the
governmental crisis. Yesterday after kidnapping Sharbel Khoury, a
shepherd from near Rmeish (he was released 24 hours later) the Israel navy also
entered Lebanese waters along the coast. This afternoon (1/13/10)
Israeli warplanes overflew Baalbek, Nabatiyeh and Marjayoun. These
incursions constituted Israel's 7,269 and 7,270th violation of Lebanese sovereignty since the August 2006
adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ordering it to stay out of
Lebanon. Several UNIFIL and UN protests have had no effect on Israel
while Washington remains mute on the subject of Israeli violations of Lebanese
sovereignty.

Since 2013, Professor Franklin P. Lamb has traveled extensively throughout Syria. His primary focus has been to document, photograph, research and hopefully help preserve the vast and irreplaceable archaeological sites and artifacts in (more...)