How 'flatten the curve' works in the coronavirus pandemic

A graphic distributed by the New Canaan Emergency Operations Center shows how avoiding social contact can help the spread of the Coronavirus from becoming overwhelming.

A graphic distributed by the New Canaan Emergency Operations Center shows how avoiding social contact can help the spread of the Coronavirus from becoming overwhelming.

Photo: Mike Handler, New Canaan Emergency Operations

Photo: Mike Handler, New Canaan Emergency Operations

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A graphic distributed by the New Canaan Emergency Operations Center shows how avoiding social contact can help the spread of the Coronavirus from becoming overwhelming.

A graphic distributed by the New Canaan Emergency Operations Center shows how avoiding social contact can help the spread of the Coronavirus from becoming overwhelming.

Photo: Mike Handler, New Canaan Emergency Operations

How 'flatten the curve' works in the coronavirus pandemic

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There's a lot of talk right now about how to "flatten the curve" of the coronavirus pandemic. But what does that actually mean — and what will happen if we don't do it?

The "curve" in question is the parabola of any epidemic, be it your standard seasonal flu or something more serious like COVID-19. As the virus infects more people, the graph starts to climb. In a worst-case scenario, it's an exponential curve, infecting millions around the world until enough people are sickened and recover that virus spread slows and the curve goes back down.

In Italy, the climb has been steep. As infected individuals came into contact with healthy ones, coronavirus spread rapidly through communities. Three weeks ago, Italy had three confirmed cases. On Monday, over 3,000 new cases in 24 hours were reported, bringing their total tally up to 27,980. There are at least 4,000 cases in the United States.

"We are at a critical inflection point in this country, people. We are where Italy was two weeks ago in terms of our numbers," U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox News this week. "When you look at the projections, there’s every chance that we could be Italy."

By limiting exposure to others — a practice known as "social distancing" — epidemiologists believe the curve could be meaningfully flattened. Social distancing means avoiding contact with others and, ideally, staying at home as much as possible.

This is crucial from a global health perspective. Limiting coronavirus cases not only has the obvious benefit of keeping the elderly and vulnerable safe, but it lessens the single biggest public health issue: overwhelmed hospitals. An exponential increase in coronavirus cases will inundate hospitals and health care providers. There won't be enough hospital beds or respirators to treat the ill, and doctors will be forced to make devastating decisions on who gets care and who does not.

In case you think this is just alarmist thinking, it's already happening in Italy. As cases spiked, Italian hospitals quickly couldn't keep up with the patients coming in.

"Right now in Lombardy, we do not have free beds in intensive care units,” Lorenzo Casani, a health director of a clinic for senior citizens in Lombardy, told Time. Doctors are having to "make this horrible choice and decide who is going to survive and who is not going to survive…who is going to get a monitor, a respirator and the attention they need."

It's a scenario American experts fear could play out here, unless more measures are taken to limit social contact. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Congress recently the scope of the pandemic is "totally dependent upon how we respond to it."

"If we're complacent and don't do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions," he said.

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