You have to be nuts to bet this game. Almost every sharp in Vegas has sucked in this NCAA Tournament (per Bill Simmons' podcast). With a gun to my head, I'd take the Huskies moneyline because I don't think Kemba Walker will lose. But who the hell knows anymore?

Even when I'm right, I'm wrong. I'm taking Kansas - they're now the favorite to win the whole thing, and as I wrote earlier, the past five national champs are 26-4 against the spread in the tournament. The Jayhawks are 2-1 ATS thus far.

I've suddenly realized why I've sucked at handicapping the NCAA Tournament - because it makes no f***ing sense. How does Kentucky go from nearly losing to Princeton to knocking off Ohio State? Whatever. I'm going one unit from here on out, and I'm taking Kemba Walker tonight. I think we're all overreacting to Arizona's victory over Duke. The Wildcats just played their best half of the entire season. I doubt they can duplicate that.

I'm going to continue to ride Ohio State. As I wrote last weekend, national champions are 26-4 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 2006, and Ohio State is undefeated against the spread thus far.

This seems like a high spread, but not after you hear this stat: Since 2006, teams that win the championship are 26-4 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. With that in mind, I'm taking the two best teams.

One afternoon game and one evening game today - I like Northern Colorado to cover the spread. San Diego State had only four conference blowouts, so I don't know why they'd suddenly have a huge victory over a conference champion that can score.

As I wrote in my 2011 NCAA Tournament Picks, I believe that UAB and VCU will make all the talking heads eat their words by winning two games in the Big Dance (including these bogus first-four contests).

Penn State is currently in the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi and our own bracketology, but I'm terrified that we're going to embarrass ourselves against Michigan State. It's Izzo Time, and the Nittany Lions are just 4-19 in their previous 23 matchups against Sparty.

Villanova really sucks. Sure, they've lost to a bunch of great teams recently, but they also barely beat DePaul and Seton Hall during their slump. It wouldn't surprise me if South Florida came away with a victory.

I have five picks today, all of which have one thing in common - I'm betting against No. 1 seeds in mid- and low-major conference tournaments. The reason's simple: These teams have enjoyed tremendous regular seasons, but one loss here means elimination from NCAA Tournament contention. That's just way too much pressure on a bunch of kids. Hell, professional football and basketball players tend to choke in must-win situations.

In this game, I'm taking Tony Kornheiser's alma mater. Binghamton has been blown out only once since Jan. 23. The Bearcats battled Vermont close on Feb. 13, losing 60-51.

How can you not take a school named after the great vampire hunter, Simon Belmont? Well, the Bruins have been shaky lately, barely beating Kennesaw State and Mercer. The Ospreys, meanwhile, have knocked off the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds in the Atlantic Sun Tournament.

Missouri State put together a great season. However, it could all end this afternoon if they lose to a crappy 13-18 squad. That's a lot of pressure to put on a bunch of kids. Also, the Bears have only one double-digit victory in the past two months.

This game's happening in 20 minutes, FYI. I apologize; I didn't realize that there were early games today.

Arizona is not playing good basketball right now. The Wildcats have dropped two in a row, and have only beaten one opponent by double digits since Jan. 27. Oregon State, meanwhile, has kept its games close over the past month.

I also gave some consideration to St. John's -2. But that line just looks like a trap. The Johnnies should be ranked in the top 10 and Seton Hall sucks, so why is the line only -2? Makes no sense to me.

Marquette, losers of five of its previous nine games, has been inconsistent all year. I don't think they deserve to be favored by 10 over a decent Providence team. The Friars should be able to score enough to cover.

Tennessee is a lazy team that doesn't take lesser opponents seriously. And they're not that good. The Vols have lost four of six, while Mississippi State hasn't suffered a double-digit loss since Feb. 2.

DePaul has been playing everyone tough. Check out their previous five results: loss by 2 vs. Villanova; win by 3 at Providence; loss by 11 at West Virginia; loss by 3 vs. Cincinnnati; loss by 4 at Louisville. Meanwhile, St. John's has battled so many tough opponents recently; the last cupcake team they've played was Rutgers (at home on Feb. 2), and they won that game by only two points. This could be a similar letdown.

Ohio State isn't playing good basketball right now, having lost two of three. Illinois, meanwhile, has just one loss of five or more points in conference play. They really need this game more than the Buckeyes; a victory would pretty much clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Maryland Eastern Shore has an awful record, but it plays its opponents tough; the Hawks have been blown out only once in the past month. Meanwhile, Morgan State has only one blowout victory in the same span.

Texas Tech has only been blown out twice in the past month - against top-three teams Kansas and Texas. I wouldn't put Baylor in that category. The Bears have just one victory of more than four points since Jan. 22 - and that was against Wayland Baptist.

I have no idea where Kennesaw State is, but I'm taking them to cover this inflated point spread. Kennesaw State has won three of four, and they're a team that doesn't get blown out frequently. Meanwhile, Jacksonville doesn't have a win of more than 13 points since Jan. 22.

Not sure what happened yesterday. Losing the spread by 1.5 and three points sucks, what can I say?

Hopefully we'll have better luck today. I'm taking this Santa Clara team that has only one loss of more than seven points during conference play. Gonzaga seems to be getting too many points because they're a public team.

Both teams are 3-4 in their previous seven games, yet UC-Santa Barbara is a 12-point favorite. How does that make any sense? UC-Santa Barbara doesn't blow anyone out, while CS-Fullerton usually keeps its games close; the four aforementioned losses were by 1, 2, 2 and 15.

Cleveland State has dropped two in a row and has beaten only one team by more than 14 points since New Years Day. Youngstown State, meanwhile, has battled everyone tough. They've only been blown out once in the past month.

Yale is a solid team. They've won two in a row, and six of their previous eight. The last time they lost a game by more than eight points was on Dec. 28 at Stanford. Harvard, meanwhile, has only two victories of more than 11 points since New Years Eve. Those wins came against Cornell and Dartmouth, the two worst teams in the Ivy League.

Furman is favored by 20.5 - which is way too many points for a team coming off a loss that doesn't blow its opponents out. Georgia Southern, meanwhile, has only lost one game by 20-plus points since the beginning of January, so they've been playing tough despite their ugly record.

I have to go on a rant for a second because we were seriously cheated in the Indiana-Purdue game last night. Indiana stayed within 11 points the entire game. Thanks to a pair of free throws in the final minute, Purdue finally increased its lead to 12. Indiana missed the ensuing layup, and there were 20 seconds remaining.

Now, down 12 with 20 seconds left, the Hoosiers had no chance, right? Not according to head coach Tom Crean. Crean yelled at his players, imploring them to foul. The refs let a couple of fouls go, but finally blew the whistle with 13 seconds left. Yeah, you're going to overcome a 12-point deficit in 13 seconds, you f***ing moron.

As this happened, I yelled:

"No!!!!!!!!!! What the f*** are you fouling for!!!!! F*** you, Tom Crean, you f***ing nerd!!!!!"

Of course, Purdue drained two free throws and Indiana missed a half-a**ed attempt at a three-pointer, and that was that. The worst push in college basketball history.

At any rate, Missouri State isn't playing very good basketball right now; they've dropped two of three and haven't even covered the spread since Jan. 16. Bradley, meanwhile, has won two in a row.

Purdue doesn't blow teams out; the last time the Boilermakers have beaten a team by this margin was Iowa on Jan. 9. Indiana, meanwhile, is playing well right now. If the Hoosiers can keep within double digits of Wisconsin and Michigan State, they should be able to cover this large spread.

Utah (10-13) at San Diego State (23-1) Line: San Diego State by 17.5. 10:30 PM ET (Game 537-538)

I had Utah about a week ago, and that worked out well. They should be able to cover. Like Purdue, San Diego State doesn't blow teams out; the Aztecs have just one win of more than 13 points since New Years Eve.

Butler is highly overrated. They're just 1-6 against the spread as double-digit favorites this year, and they've dropped four of their previous six overall. Illinois-Chicago, meanwhile, has only lost one game by more than 14 points since New Years Day.

Georgetown is known as the laziest team in college basketball. They seldom try hard when they don't need to, and they have just one win of more than 11 points since Dec. 23. Providence has won three of four.

I've been betting against this Cornell team all year because the public doesn't understand how bad they are. Everyone remembers last year's trip to the Sweet 16, but this team really sucks this season.

This is a big rivalry, so it should be a close game. Ohio State is undefeated, but they've barely beaten some teams lately, which leads me to believe that this spread is inflated. Michigan, meanwhile, has lost only one contest by more than 16 points since Dec. 28.

Saint Mary's has been favored by 20-plus points three times this season, and is 0-3 ATS in those games. Saint Mary's has also dropped two of three, so I like Pepperdine to cover. Pepperdine has won two of three.

Villanova is playing like crap like now; it looks like they're beginning their annual late-season swoon. Marquette always plays the Wildcats tough; the Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS against Villanova in their previous 10 matchups.

This spread is just out of control. UNLV has beaten only one team (crappy TCU) by more than 12 points since Dec. 30. Utah, meanwhile, has only been blown out once since early December (against BYU). The Utes even played undefeated San Diego State tough, losing by just nine points.

Penn State is playing much better than Illinois right now. The Nittany Lions are 4-2 in their previous six games, with the two losses coming in the final few seconds. The Illini, meanwhile, have dropped four of five.

Canisius is 6-3 in its previous nine games, and none of those three losses have been by more than eight points. As for Fairfield, their record is impressive, but they haven't won by more than eight points themselves since early January.

People can't accept the fact that Michigan State sucks. The Spartans have lost three in a row, and the last team they beat by double figures was Prairie View A&M on Dec. 18. Indiana, meanwhile, is playing with a ton of confidence right now.

This spread is way too high. Buffalo has just one win of more than 13 points since Dec. 11. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has won three of five, and the team hasn't lost to anyone by more than nine points since they visited ranked Missouri on Dec. 27.

Tennessee State (10-9) at Morehead State (13-8) Line: Morehead State by 10.5.

Eastern Michigan sucked yesterday, but Rutgers was the right side. They led in the second half, but lost the spread because their idiot coach asked his players to start fouling with three minutes left. Cincinnati naturally hit every single free throw down the stretch. Ugh.

I'm always a fan of Morehead, but I'm taking Tennessee State today. The Tigers have won four in a row, while the Eagles haven't scored more than 50 points in two weeks.

Does Ohio deserve to be favored by 10? The Bobcats are 1-5 in their previous six games and 2-7 in their past nine. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a win. They have only one loss of more than nine points in the past month and a half.

This line is really inflated because of Cincinnati's bogus record. The Bearcats have predictably struggled in Big East play, losing three of their previous five. Rutgers, meanwhile, is 8-5 in its past 13 games.

UNC-Wilmington (10-9) at Old Dominion (14-5) Line: Old Dominion by 14.5.

This spread is out of control. UNC-Wilmington 5-3 in its previous eight games, while Old Dominion is coming off a loss. And check out Old Dominion's margins of victory since Dec. 9: 3, 9, 4, 15, 4, 11, 6.

South Florida (7-13) at West Virginia (12-5) Line: West Virginia by 13.

I completely disagree with this spread. South Florida hasn't lost by more than 12 points all year. Meanwhile, West Virginia has just one blowout since Dec. 7. Here are their margins of victory in that span: 4, 30, 6, 2, 11, 3.

I know this Tennessee team. They play hard when they want (i.e. when they're underdogs). They beat Pitt, yet they lose to teams like College of Charleston and Oakland. They're 3-0 against the spread as underdogs. They'll get up for Kemba Walker.

Butler's reputation has inflated this spread; I don't think the Bulldogs are two touchdowns better than Wisconsin-Green Bay. Butler is coming off a loss, and Green Bay doesn't get blown out often. They even stayed within 14 against Wisconsin earlier in the year.

West Carolina (8-10) at College of Charleston (12-6) Line: College of Charleston by 10.5.

This spread is way too high. West Carolina has won four in a row, while College of Charleston is coming off a loss to Tennessee-Chattanooga. In fact, Charleston has just one victory of more than four points since Dec. 31.

College Basketball Pick: College of Charleston 75, West Carolina 70 West Carolina +10.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 College of Charleston 93, West Carolina 64

Tennessee Tech (8-8) at Austin Peay (12-7) Line: Austin Peay by 13.5.

Another high line. Austin Peay is coming off a loss to 8-9 Tennessee State, as well as two other close wins. They have just one win of more than 10 points against a Division I opponent since Dec. 18. Tennessee Tech, meanwhile, is 4-2 in its previous six games, with the losses coming by 12 and 7 points.

Central Florida's record is a farce. Check out their previous four games: Loss at Southern Miss by 17; loss at Houston by 5; Won vs. Marshall by 7; Won vs. Princeton by 6. Does this sound like a team that deserves to be a 12.5-point favorite? East Carolina, meanwhile, hasn't lost a game by more than 12 points since Dec. 7.

It's amazing how North Carolina continues to be overrated. They don't cover any of their games because the oddsmakers keep setting the line too high, perhaps thinking that bettors expect them to bounce back. Well, it doesn't appear as though they will. Clemson's the better and hotter team.

Remember when Kansas State was a top-five team coming into the season? Well, they've lost some games and have become undervalued. Missouri's record is inflated, and I believe Kansas State is the better team.