Six suspects arrested over foiled church attack in EgyptSix suspected militants were arrested over their involvement in a failed suicide attack on a church near Cairo, the Egyptian Interior Ministry said on Sunday. On Saturday, a militant wearing an explosive belt detonated himself near a Coptic church in Qalyubiyah, north of Cairo, before he could approach the location due to heavy security presence. Authorities identified the man as Omar Mohamed Ahmed Mostafa, 29. He was reportedly a member of a cell plotting attacks across the country. The Egyptian army has been fighting an Islamist insurgency since the ouster of former Brotherhood-affiliated President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. Security forces stormed hideouts on Sunday used by militants in the northern Sinai Peninsula, killing 12 suspected militants. Separately, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood and other leaders of the banned group were sentenced on Sunday to life in prison. Mohammed Badie and the other defendants were accused of incitement to violence during the 2013 protests. Read More​

Melissa Dalton writes: The United States must determine its sources of leverage, articulate its goals, connect those goals to a stabilization framework, and operationalize burden sharing under an eastern Syria framework. Failing this, the Assad regime will likely take over the east, which has proven to be the ultimate driver of instability and extremism in the country, with effects that will inevitably draw the United States back into the region. - Center for Strategic and International Studies

Haitham Numan writes: Although Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has announced new investments worth three billion dollars for Basra and has pledged additional spending on housing, schools, and services in response to the protests, they have actually continued—spreading up to the capital. The persistence of these demonstrations poses an important question: who benefits from the expansion of these protests? And who benefits from the consequent faltering in Iraq’s oil supplies? - Washington Institute

Yochanan Visser writes: Iran is tightening the noose around Israel - not only in Syria where the Mossad reportedly killed the country’s most important missile scientist last Saturday - but also via its odd proxy Hamas, the Sunni Islamist terror organization that rules Gaza. - Arutz Sheva

Ahmad Majidyar, Gerald M. Feierstein, and Charles Lister write: By applying economic and diplomatic pressure, President Donald Trump hopes to force Tehran to negotiate a new deal with his administration. But it remains unclear if that goal is achievable in the absence of broad international support. - Middle East Institute

Martin Chulov writes: For years, [his mother] has refused to talk about Osama, as has his wider family – throughout his two-decade reign as al-Qaida leader, a period that saw the strikes on New York and Washington DC, and ended more than nine years later with his death in Pakistan. Now, Saudi Arabia’s new leadership – spearheaded by the ambitious 32-year-old heir to the throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – has agreed to my request to speak to the family. - The Guardian

The Missile Arsenal at the Heart of the Israeli-Iranian Rivalry From Stratfor Worldview: “Hezbollah and Iran have worked diligently to build up their weapons capabilities in an effort to exploit some of Israel's vulnerabilities, prompting the latter to draft a robust defense strategy against its greatest antagonists. Altogether, the situation ensures that the next war between the two sides could be a lot more damaging than their last battle in 2006.”​

Michael Doran on Theology, Zionism, and Foreign PolicyWhen it comes to foreign policy, America's most important division is not between Right and Left, argues Dr. Michael Doran. It is, rather, theological in nature, pitting the intellectual descendants of Protestant modernists against the heirs of the Protestant fundamentalist tradition. In a groundbreaking essay, "The Theology of Foreign Policy," Dr. Doran traces the intellectual history of these religious schools of thought from the Scopes "Monkey Trial" to contemporary debates about America's relationship with Israel. This week, he joins Jonathan Silver on the Tikvah Podcast to discuss his essay and how it can help us illuminate current foreign policy controversies about everything from Russia to the Middle East.

In Turkey and Pakistan, discouraging electionsClifford D. May - The Washington Times​Not so long ago, freedom and democracy seemed to be on the march in the world, with Turkey and Pakistan, two strategically important Muslim-majority nations, near the front of the parade. That turns out to have been an illusion. Elections recently held in these countries have, paradoxically, made that clear. In Turkey, votes cast in June gave President Recep Tayyip Erdogan powers he has long coveted. He is now, effectively, head of state and government, the military and the judiciary. For quite some time now, he also has been censoring the media, instructing private industry and filling his jails with enemies and dissidents...Read more

Iran works to offset coming US sanctionsIran is engaged in intense diplomacy ahead of the imminent reimposition of US sanctions. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met Thursday with his counterparts from Russia, Turkey, Japan, Malaysia, Norway, the Philippines and Vietnam on the sidelines of his trip to Singapore, where he is expected to sign an association agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). "All stressed [the] expansion of ties, imperative of promoting multilateralism and resilience and innovation to preserve [the 2015 nuclear deal]," Zarif tweeted. Read More​

Iran announces new foreign exchange policyThe new governor of the Central Bank of Iran late Sunday announced new policies to prop up the sagging rial. Foreign exchange bureaus will be allowed to operate again, while imports of currency and gold will be exempt from taxes. On the same day, the spokesman for the judiciary announced the arrest of Ahmad Araghchi, the recently dismissed deputy governor of the Central Bank responsible for foreign exchange. Araghchi is a nephew of Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, who helped negotiate the nuclear deal.Read More​

American efforts to cripple the Taliban drug trade in Afghanistan have fallen short of expectations, U.S. officials say, creating new challenges for the Trump administration’s efforts to weaken the insurgency as the warring parties try to jump start peace talks. - Wall Street Journal

C. J. Chivers writes: In early October, the Afghan war will be 17 years old, a milestone that has loomed with grim inevitability as the fighting has continued without a clear exit strategy across three presidential administrations. With this anniversary, prospective recruits born after the terrorist attacks of 2001 will be old enough to enlist. And Afghanistan is not the sole enduring American campaign. The war in Iraq, which started in 2003, has resumed and continues in a different form over the border in Syria. - New York Times

Husain Haqqani writes: The Pakistani establishment and its apologists want the world to believe that Khan’s triumph is the result of the rise of a younger generation of Pakistanis. These young nationalists have been brought up on propaganda about how corrupt civilian politicians have deprived Pakistan of its rightful place under the sun. - Hudson Institute

Trump’s Warning to Iran By J. Robert Kane, RealClearDefense: “The aggression in Latin America through Iranian operations is not benign. It has serious effects. Namely, Iran is trying to replace the U.S. as the power ally to Latin American countries”

U.S. Options for Responding to Sharp Power Threats By Anthony Patrick, Divergent Options: “Sharp power actions are normally covert in nature allowing the perpetrator plausible deniability. Given the combined military and economic power of western democracies, sharp power is the preferred method for disruptive actions against the international order by authoritarian powers.”

U.S. Provocations Present Opportunity for Iran By Ian Dudgeon, The Strategist (ASPI): “U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s provocative speech on 22 July that attacked Iran’s leadership and policies, and prompted a brief but hostile exchange between President Hassan Rouhani and President Donald Trump about the threat of war, has provided an opportunity for Rouhani to seize the initiative and sell himself and the Iranian government, domestically and internationally.”
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US Counterterrorism strikes: Tempo remains high in Somalia and Yemen, transparency improvesIn 2017, LWJ reported unprecedented levels of airstrikes in Somalia and Yemen. Thus far in 2018, the United States has sustained its high strike tempo in Somalia and improved transparency on its air campaign in Yemen. Strikes in Pakistan have leveled off, however press restrictions make tracking operations there difficult. In Libya, the U.S. has targeted jihadists sparingly.

Bomb, bomb Iran By Rodger Shanahan, the interpreter: “...it is reported that “senior figures in the Turnbull government” claim that Washington could bomb targets in Iran as early as next month, and that Australia would assist in target identification.”

The Pentagon Should Be Planning for an Occupation of Iran ByJoe Karle, Modern War Institute: “Since war rarely goes according to plan, the circumstances and situations war create demand policymakers evaluate countless “what if” scenarios; including the possibility of a military strike escalating into regime change and a subsequent occupation.”​

US redirects Iraq assistance to religious minoritiesThe Donald Trump administration on Thursday announced plans for 10 reconstruction projects in Christian and Yazidi communities in Iraq as part of an effort to directly fund minority areas decimated by the Islamic State. Vice President Mike Pence first redirected the funds last year amid accusations that the UN Development Program was not adequately stabilizing minority areas in the Nineveh Plains. Under the new directive, $118 million in stabilization funding for Iraq will go to minority communities, more than a third of the total US stabilization aid in Iraq. Pence on Thursday also announced an additional $17 million to clear land mines in Iraq’s Nineveh province.Read More​

Iraq’s national elections bode poorly for their future — and the United StatesKenneth Pollack | AEIdeas The national elections were anything but the triumph of democracy that has been depicted by various journalists, officials, and experts. In reality, the elections were a disaster. There was massive fraud, made more salient by low voter turnout. Consequently, the results of the election have little legitimacy in the eyes of most Iraqis.

Assad's Lethal Peace Dealsby Mohammed Alaa Ghanem via AnalysisCeasefires are often assumed to be a means to peace; but in Syria, the Assad regime has transformed them into a powerful weapon against civilians. This essay describes how Assad's forces have strategically deployed ceasefires to achieve two goals: (1) the starvation and displacement of urban areas, and (2) the massing of otherwise overstretched forces. Through a series of case studies, this essay also charts the evolution of Assad's ceasefires strategy, from the “local ceasefires” that took hold early in the conflict to the current “de-escalation zones.” The essay also highlights impacts on Iranian regional expansion and long-term population displacement and demographic re-engineering.

The Sorrows Of Egypt Revisitedby Samuel Tadros via AnalysisDoes Egypt still have a place in the US grand strategy? For many pundits in Washington the answer is a resounding no. From every corner of the US foreign policy community frustration abounds with Egypt. If, however, the United States is ever capable of understanding its troublesome ally and salvaging what remains of the US–Egyptian alliance, it must tread carefully, following Fouad Ajami’s steps, and approach the Egypt of reality, and not that of imagination. It must take a voyage to “a jaded country,” as Ajami called it, and visit the land of sorrows.

Egypt's Sorrows Aren't Going Awayquoting Fouad Ajami, Samuel Tadros via Mosaic MagazineRevisiting the historian Fouad Ajami’s 1995 essay “The Sorrows of Egypt,” Samuel Tadros finds that many, although not all, of its observations still hold true: In 1995, Ajami accurately wrote that “it is no consolation to Egyptians that they have been spared the terror visited on less fortunate places like Syria or Iraq or the Sudan.”

Editorial: The low-grade conflict underway between Israel and Hamas since March nearly escalated into a full-scale war over the weekend. After an Israeli soldier was shot and killed near its border with the Gaza Strip, Israeli planes carried out more than 60 airstrikes against Hamas targets. - Washington Post

HAMAS LOSING DETERRENCE AGAINST ISRAELHamas losing deterrence against IDFHamas' decision to deploy snipers against Israeli soldiers after months of border protests and growing international attention highlights the internal divide in the movement and threatens to shatter previous achievements.

The United States In Northeastern Syriaby Fabrice Balanche via AnalysisThe presence of the United States in northeastern Syria after the defeat of the Islamic State is justified in the context of the confrontation with Iran and Russia in the Middle East. However, by relying primarily on the YPG (People's Protection Units), an outshoot of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), Washington creates an existential threat to Ankara and pushes Turkey into the arms of enemies of the United States. The inversion of local power to the benefit of the Kurds and the disastrous economic situation strikes the Arab populations, who are turning to Damascus. That calls into question all the calculations made by strategists who are not interested in the deep reality of the territory that must support their actions.

Russia Can't Control What Happens in Syria// Krishnadev CalamurAs the civil war morphs, Putin is trying to position himself as the indispensable power. But a dangerous confrontation between Israel and Iran is escalating.