Final Nail In Today's NFP Tragicomedy: Record Surge In Part-Time Workers

It appears the record surge in people not in the labor force is not the only outlier in today's data. For the other one we go to the Household Data Survey (Table 9), and specifically the breakdown between Full Time and Part Time Workers (defined as those "who usually work less than 35 hours per week"). We won't spend too much time on it, as it is self-explanatory. In January, the number of Part Time workers rose by 699K, the most ever, from 27,040K to 27,739K, the third highest number in the history of this series. How about Full time jobs? They went from 113,765 to 113,845. An 80K increase. So the epic January number of 141.6 million employed, which rose by 847K at the headline level: only about 10 % of that was full time jobs: surely an indicator of the resurgent US economy... in which employers can't even afford to give their workers full time employee benefits. We can't wait for Mr. Liesman to explain how this number, too, is unadulterated hogwash, and how it too is explained away to confirm economic strength. Incidentally this is not the first time we have discussed the issue of part vs full time workers: for more see here: "Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society, Following 6 Straight Months Of Full Time Job Declines"

The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.

The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment. Employment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.

[Elton John's Tiny Dancer plays as Bernanke walks on to the set wearing a sweater vest and kakis]

[APPLAUSE]

Thank you!

[Smiling]

Good morning, and welcome to Sipping Coffee, with me, Ben Bernanke. Today we have a great show in store for you. I have some freinds stopping by; Timmah and Law Wrench will be paying us a visit!

[APPLAUSE]

First, a message from our sponsers....

[Are you poor? Hungry? Tired? Yes? Then you are part of the new slave class! As part of the new slave class you are free to visit FEMA holiday camps! You will have the luxery of one hot and two cold meals per day, showers every other day, and a communal TV that you will be able to watch for half an hour a day! If you have any questions, please call 1-800-BIG-BROS. We look forward in helping you start a new life....]

[Camera back on Ben]

FEMA camps look like a wonderful place for the new slave class. It's good to see the US is still so altruistic.

[Ben walks to couches]

I have known these two for quite some time now. We participate in the same satanic rituals, go to the same country clubs, and all have great disdain for sound money policy. Join me in welcoming my friends Timmah and Law Wrench.

[Timmah, riding a tricycle, and Law Wrench in a clown car, enter stage left]

Please you two, sit down.

Timmah!

[Law Wrench Farts loudly]

[LAUGHTER]

Great to see you two! We last spoke during the sacred burning of the dollar ceremony. How have you been?

Timmah!

[Law Wrench farts loudly]

Great! Are you two planning on moving out of the country soon, or do you think you own enough land in Montana to survive the economic collapse on the horizon, a la Don Rumsfeld?

[Law Wrench is asleep and snoring loudly]

Timmah!

[LAUGHTER]

Me too.

We are going to break, but stay tuned because when we get back these two are going to mud wrestle in human feces!

Brother Truth, you know as well as I that what is important here is that bankers are making big bucks this morning on paper wealth. With those big bucks, they will support local economies in NY, NY, while also supporting the small jet manufacturing industry as they prepare for the Lear Jet exodous later this year when the Wall Street syndicate curtain on the real economy finally snaps the actual curtain rod it is hanging on...suddenly exposing the largest financial crime ever perpetrated, or otherwise known as B. Bernanke's tenure at the Fed.

So party on Truth. Come by Walmart, and I'll help you find a shopping cart. I'm there 9 am to noon on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

I respect everyone's opinion, but how the fuck does this go on given the data. Europe needs and is going to burn $10 trillion in the next stage of their bailouts. The Fed is targetting inflation and shoveling dollars in the Fed's furnace like there is no tomorrow. We are past the point of no return.

They need 7% growth to continue the ponzi. That 7% is going to be pure inflation. This has been going on for three years. This compounds into a Tsunami of leverage. This leverage is above the heads of a populace that is broke, tired, and hungry.

1.2 million working age people no longer have the honor & privilege of being 'counted' for purposes of tabulating unemployment + inherently flawed 'seasonal january adjustment' + a whole lot of temporary workers @ no benefits and minimum wage = turn an actual survey data of a loss of 2.7 million jobs into a BLS reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

Hi Cdad, yes do you have any applications I could use some hours to supplement my income, I could use a few shifts a week, perhaps night shift? I will work anywhere along the 401 corridor between Montreal and Toronto

Actually I saw a news blurb from a few days ago stating that Wal-Mart was actually going to lay off many of their "overnight" greeters despite the long tradition of greeting every customer who walks in regardless of when begun by Sam himself.

Try Target Cdad. I like their bath towels much better anyway and their men's briefs are to die for. CD's junk needs the extra soft treatment at my advanced age. :>)

CNBC told me this is positive because the corparations are going to slowy ease into hiring. their testing the water before them jump in with both feet and go on a crazy hiring spree.. Bullish. Winning.

There are no balls in Congress to call Liesman out, off course the Admin does not want to, and the MSM and CNBC and all the supposed experts on the airwaves are too stupid to know the diff. Peeps like Tyler and a few others do a good job analyzing and reporting, but too few stupid Americans are able to hear the truth, understand it, or even care.

This shit will get BO relected and nothing will ever change.

Just play along now... ride the wave and enjoy it while we can. When it turns, play the slide and enjoy it. Rinse, repeat.

None of this shit going on is doing any, or much, harm to any of the elitests. It's a pissing match between Machines, we're the pawns, and regardless of what happens to us pawns they will continue to be just fine.

The only thing I can think of that might take obama down is his arrogance, ego and insistence of being god. People are truely getting sick of him, and as he continues to throw others under the bus and brag about it to everyone and the MSM, someone in the progressive Machine may just get tired of throwing up in their mouths every 10 minutes when BO comes on national tv and decide they do not want him as pres and put someone else in. Or cut off any remaining nuts that he has (if Michelle doesn't do that first). Whichever.

From a TA standpoint, this was the pop some were looking for to finish the rally. We needed one more small wave up, and we got it. If 1370 is taken out, I'll have to reassess, but until then, I still say this rally is near its end.

Meh, looks more like the toppy action of Sep 09 to me. Twas looking rosier then too. Looky at that spikey monthly candle with delta of 21 IWM points. And let me reiterate the negative MACD-price divergence still currently in play on the weekly. We'll see.

I personally know people who are volunteering their services in order to prove their worth should a future paying position open up. These numbers are absolutely repulsive to me and I very much look forward to a day of retribution.

Part time employees soared because all those people that fell off UI eligibility are reloading their earnings at rock bottom income levels. Bernanke should be happy, the drop in labor costs will help to offset the inflation he is causing.

Good point. I know lots of semi-retired people who volunteer just for the social interaction. The aging population is, on it's own, deflationary. This allows lots of money printing without headline inflation, instead we get the steady loss of standard of living through reduced wages, which are not counted as inflation.

Plus no bennies - so many people just won't use medical - which will hold medical costs relatively more in check. They always make a large component of inflation, and would otherwise be worse. So the misery index goes up, but why should the chairsatan care? He's never left his ivory tower to be concerned about the 'peons'.

CAT (+65% profits y/y) is closing down a factory in London Ontario. Workers
wouldn't accept a slash to wages, benefits and pensions.

So they are going to move facotry across the border. Where workers will
accept NO benefits, NO pensions and 40% cut to wages.

Now at first glance many will say a job is a job. But think through the long
term implications of this "job". Who is going to pay for this workers healthcare
and pension? Not the corporation.The bill will go to the public sector. The
corporation is paying record low taxes to the government (as a percentage of GDP
lowest since 1972). Currently the number is about 13.1% vs 25.6% from 1987-2008.

So, the government (which is you dear taxpayer) is subsidizing all new
employment in this enviroment. Moreover, you are also being asked, to a greater
extent than ever,to subsidize workers healthcare and pensions. In reality the
taxpayer is subsidizing the extreme wealth transfer from workers to company
executives.

Nobody will care about this today. The same as nobody cared about subprime in
2002.But you can be damn sure they will in 5-10 years from now.

Well, from the Canadian side, they would have had public health care and been paying into CPP, so it would have just been supplemental medical - dental, perscriptions, etc that the company would have covered, plus more pension money.

Dumbasses were greedy and now they are going to be on Employment Insurance, getting 66 percent of pay for the next 12 months while they look for another job.

Doesn't Obamacare require these workers to get health insurance?

What is the contribution versus withdraw for a worker on Social Security?

My Robo senses are on fire. I went long WHR on 11/4 around $51 and covered it literally minutes before you post this. Lots of weekly resistance here and now you are looking in the rear view on it. Looks like the WHR run may take a breather now that its on the Robodar.

Markets are strong because all the USD liqudiity from FED increase in USDEUR swap lines was waiting to make sure there was nothing weird (market manipulator weird) in the jobs report. Now that that dam has been opened, the liquidiyt is free to rush out. Risk is off, baby. Look at gold, look at bonds. The EUR was ramping up until the resignation rumour.

Forget about all the jobs data. Just look at tax receipts. If they're going up = economic improvement. IF they're falling = continued slide into recession (or futher in, depending on your point of view).

I know this site is all about the doom and gloom, but I will tell you first hand that a A LOT of people are starting to retire and leave the workforce. Does the NFP track actual retirements versus just people who disappeared from the workforce? We're well into the Boomer retirement wave this year and it is going to be growing steadily from here on for many years.

I was forced into early retirement at age 55 by a large US Tech company. The job was offshored. They've been doing this to 10-15K US workers every year since year 2000. Many other Techs are doing the same. So yeah, lots of boomers retiring -- whether they want to (or can afford to) or not.

And the US National Debt has gone from 8.9 TRILLION TO 16.8 TRILLION in those same 3 short years. A monkey with a note could pull of the same growth too if he was givin a credit card to live off. What they have actually done is dig a hole so deep, we are now just burying ourselves the deeper we go. What you see is merely an artificial illusion created by magicians with printing presses and free money. When this artificial prop fails, we are past the point of no return so enjoy your cummins stock as Diesel just went over $4.10 at your local 76 Robo, It's not going to last...

Yeah and in a few weeks when they decide to create another crisis somewhere and the mother of all BOTS eat their children like you, we will not hear from you again for several months as you hide in the basement and lick your wounds. Same old ponzi, different day...Keep feeding the leeches Robo, and they will continue to find the next sucker to drain...

"in which employers can't even afford to give their workers full time employee benefits. ..."

oh they can afford it - what with record and/or healthy profits and tons of cash in the bank - except for that persnickety little fact that the top 1% need their bonuses and to expand their share of national income from 43% to 75%......

besides, the plutocrats have to continue with their plans to subjugate and enslave so they poor mouth all the way to the hamptons and back.....

Better to enjoy the rally, keep powder dry and be ready to jump, than to worry about how they figure out the ways they can keep their jobs. It's my wallet that concerns me now since these pricks have decided it's every man for himself. Which, if you read Hayek et al, is where the toboggan picks up speed.

The numbers you quote are for the seasonally adjusted data. The unadjusted data from Table 9 show that the number of full-time jobs decreased by 1.171 million from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012, while the number of part-time jobs increased by 435 thousand. The difference is a loss of 736 thousand jobs, not seasonally adjusted, actual numbers.

Math is no longer used at the government level. They use economic engineering. Under the rules of economic engineering you can use whatever statistics you want to make your end report look good.

It works the same as building a home. You could use real math and good materials to build a very nice dwelling that will stand for a few hundred years. Or you can use substandard materials and not measure a single thing leading to wall braces that actually don't touch anything. With a nice coat of paint and a semi expensive roof, the home looks just as good as the well built one next to it. By adding special touches like an oversized bathtub you try and sell the home for $30k more than the well built home. The idiot buyer notices the oversized bathtub and doesn't notice the shoddy construction. The massive publicly traded builder wrings his hands as you sign the paperwork knowing he just scored a massive profit on your stupidity. Five years later your walls are sagging and the roof leaks, but at least you have that nice oversized bathtub.

...it's ok, this all can be overcome by the increase cost for Green Card renewal, now around $666, a cost that can be written off as an expense. LMAO

Oh man, Rosemary's Baby is speaking at a Fire Station # 5 in Arlington Va.. Not a good sign, when you factor in the fact that the bastard just held up the Political Baby (our Father in Christ as a tax on the poor through a tax on the rich LMAO) at a Prayer Breakfast and then Mr. ''P'' for Pannetta rang the 911 Iran Israeli April Latter Rain Shower Alarm.

Preemptive strikes are countered by the same standard, which means sooner than now. Lol. NYC Real Estate prices and reinsurance spread should open up, like a D.C. Log Cabin Lobbiest, at the wide stance stall, asking for PPT TP from Bawny Frank.

B) The wages of these jobs are better than average, but thanks to the middle man (i.e Robert Half companies), it SHOULD be more for these workers who are highly skilled and also have enormous amounts of debt in cities where rent is high. Pay ranges from $10-$20/hour. In states' with high taxes, that ain't shit. I'll explain later.

C) The bigger temp companies are eating up the smaller ones, thanks to the economy. This is bad because the smaller ones aren't just chop shops of corporate middle men who just want you to take any job on the whim, and as many hours as you can, so they can get their commissions. The smaller temp agencies act as employment centers who actually help you work on your resume, talk to you about achieving goals, and are much more personable. At an old temp agency (now out of business), everytime I got cut, I'd have one of 2 agents who would have me come in for an hour to critique my resume, ask what kinds of jobs do I prefer, etc. I could reject a job, and still get offers (as long as I got good reviews). Before this company went donkdown, it helped get 2 different jobs in different fields I could actually put on my resume job that actually IMPROVE my career skills and stature ( also banged a girl who worked in that office. Good times!).

The bigger companies just have you take a test, 10 min interview, then slap you on the ass and say, "Hey, you got a job answering phones in a call center for $11 an hour! See you Monday!" And if you didn't take it, they would move onto the next person. Yelp Professional Staffing Group sometime. #fail

4) 99% of temp agencies don't offer health insurance. This is great for companies because they don't have to pay it as well. Corporations LOVE temp agencies because they can cut workers on a whim w/o unemployment insurance or even a healthy notice. It really pinches pennies on worker's salaries.....which helps shareholders and allows the CEO to buy that new TV Made in China.

5)In a state in MA, where you are MANDATED to buy Health Insurance (unless you make under 17.5K a year), this really eats at your wage, especially when you have to pay an Individual rate of around $250+ a year (has gone up annually around 6-15% since the mandate started).

A job is a job, yes, grateful for the opportunity.......just doesn't give a young professional like me the stability we need to actually cut into our debt, live a modest mean lifestyle, and maybe even at some point afford these things called, "cars, homes, and children".

Fudge the employment statistic, fluff the markets, so they can raise rates based upon propoganda euphoria and get that stagflation going and crush PM prices (to support fiat and mark to fantasy economy).

BLS creative accounting could be used in so many other places. Like reporting homicide rates. If the emergency call comes after two hours of time of death or if the body temperature is below 80 F, the death should be reported as accidental death obviously.

Like I said before. They don't even care to report the truth anymore. About 1% of people under the top 15% actually own stock and even if they did buy a few shares they could only buy about $5k worth. WOW I DOUBLED MY $5K to $10K, NOW I DON'T HAVE TO WORK!!!!

The only people outside the top 15% who actually care about stocks breaking new records are idiots like Robotrader who take pleasure in seeing numbers go higher because they still believe the stock market is actually the economy. As he sits in the basement of his parents house playing XBOX and eating Hot Pockets he gets a perverse joy in watching billionaires make more money, because he thinks eventually he'll meet one while he waits in line at Burger King and the billionaire will offer him a cushy 6 figure job since the man will immediately notice his brilliance.

The lies have been told so long that they are no longer lies, just propaganda. Propaganda to keep the masses placated so they will not realize the trouble they are in and bolt for the exits. The machine can't run without the lube of a 160 million taxpaying slaves. The goal is to slowly lower the cage as to not spook the feeding animal and then once they finally realize the trap, it is too late.

Know what's likely another reason that employment is in the crapper, one that people rarely think about? Back in the 60s, around 50% of family households existed on one income. Starting in the 70's that number accelerated until it reached a level of around 67%, coinciding with the ascent of women as participating members of the labor force.

Check out table HINC-05 of the census data. It says there are 118.7 million(All numbers rounded) households. Of those, 27.4 have no earners, 44.9 have one earner, 46.3 million have multiple earners, although it doesn't specify part or full time. Of those 46.3 million, 37.5 are comprised of two earners, 6.7 have three earners and 2.2 have four earners. Again, while it doesn't specify PT/FT or seasonal, that is still around 103 milion jobs in less than half of all households. Every job occupied by a multiple earner home is one less for a non-family home or a home with no earners. If the numbers are even close to being accurate, that's crazy shiat.

I can offer some anecdotal evidence - I personally know of 7 people that lost jobs between 2008 and 2010, all 59 or younger. One decided to take retirement at 59.5 when he could access his 401k money, another decided to retire at 53 since he had military pension to fall back on. Of the 5 remaining 3 still have not found jobs but also aren't counted in the unemployed anymore since they've dropped off the benefits qualifications. One found a decent full-time job paying much less than his other job, another found work at Lowes............at much less than previous job.

Three other I worked with and myself were being forced out of good high paying jobs and all of us found other similar jobs.........but 3 of the 4 took pay and or benefits cuts.

Between my wife and myself, we work with 6 people that are 67 or older still working, out of combined departemts of about 40 people. None of these people have any stated plans of retiring.

Don't know what all that means, but I sure hope things are getting back on track........though experiences tells me otherwise.

Sure hope you're right "aerojet": "that A LOT of people are starting to retire and leave the work force." But from what I'm hearing public school teachers, at any rate, are not retiring; they're going down the halls in walkers with no mandatory retirement age. I don't know how colleges are ethically enrolling students for teaching degrees. This is a travesty.