Johnny Manziel (probably in the 2016 draft). He's 6'1", 200 lbs. He's got Tebow level intensity but can actually throw a pretty pass and knows how to thread the needle into tight coverage. His footwork is actually quite good for a RS Freshman, and his arm mechanics seem just fine. Watching him today, he kind of reminded me of a mix between Russell Wilson and Tony Romo.

But- 6'1" QBs are almost never taken early, especially those who are just 200 lbs and play in a spread offense.

I need to see more before I'm sure, but Manziel looks legit to me- especially for a first year starter. He's a much better QB than his predecessor, who just went #8 overall in the last draft. Will size haunt him on draft day? Probably. Let's see if Russell Wilson changes the tide because there are a lot of good short QBs coming out in the next couple years.

Last edited by kearly on Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MontanaHawk05 wrote:I've been burnt so many times by QB's from spread offenses that I'm tempted to dismiss him immediately.

That's changing though. The NFL is becoming much more friendly to spread concepts, and college QBs are entering the league better prepared for the NFL. Cam Newton will probably bounce back, and RG3 is having a tremendous season. Tannehill and Weeden have actually been pretty decent for rookies too. Their having come to the NFL from a non-pro-style offense has not hurt them much. Additionally, Nick Foles looked pretty damn good in the preseason for the Eagles, and he was the ultimate spread QB in college.

I hate everything related to Texas A&M, but this kid really impressed me, and he did remind me a lot of Russell Wilson. I love this kids intensity and you can tell his teammates would walk through fire for him. Throws the ball very well too. There's not a lot of holes in bama's defense but he squeezed the ball in there. He needs to bulk up a little bit, but that will happen with age.

Goes thru his read progression as smoothly and confidently as any QB i've seen including Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, already a master at lookin off safeties, Throws an absolutely beautiful ball. Can run with anybody in the country. And his in game demeanor makes Russell Wilson look like a spaz.

And he's a freshman who only started one season in high school and now 10 games in college.

Goes thru his read progression as smoothly and confidently as any QB i've seen including Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, already a master at lookin off safeties, Throws an absolutely beautiful ball. Can run with anybody in the country. And his in game demeanor makes Russell Wilson look like a spaz.

And he's a freshman who only started one season in high school and now 10 games in college.

My favorite player on AM is Swope.He will never rank high on the measurable but he great route runner,always gets open,fearless and catches everything.He could be one of those later round picks that develops into a steady slot guy.Someones security blanket that always seems to be in the right place at the right time.Does more with his talent with brains and hard work type of player.

MontanaHawk05 wrote:I've been burnt so many times by QB's from spread offenses that I'm tempted to dismiss him immediately.

That's changing though. The NFL is becoming much more friendly to spread concepts, and college QBs are entering the league better prepared for the NFL. Cam Newton will probably bounce back, and RG3 is having a tremendous season. Tannehill and Weeden have actually been pretty decent for rookies too. Their having come to the NFL from a non-pro-style offense has not hurt them much. Additionally, Nick Foles looked pretty damn good in the preseason for the Eagles, and he was the ultimate spread QB in college.

I think the new CBA will help this, too. It's not so much, mabye, that they have to convert from spread to pro style, but how long they have to do it. With the new rookie salary structure, you can draft a guy and give him more time to develop. Even with Wilson, after a couple of games their were people calling for his head around here. Luckily Pete stuck to his guns and the kid is working out and looks to have a bright future. Would that be true for a high first rounder making $60 mill? Hmmm.

Talent can get you to the playoffs.It takes character to win when you get there.SUPER BOWL XLVIII CHAMPIONS

i was saying in the Bama/A&M game thread yesterday that Manziel has a whole lot of Russell Wilson in him. At one point he had completed 14 straight passes against that vaunted "NFL level" defense, and he's a freshman. He moves incredibly well in the pocket, throws well on the run, and has the back shoulder un-interceptable ball down pat. The kid has "it", and proved it as a freshman against a defense that has a stockpile of NFL defenders on it.

I think AJ McCarron has bust at the pro level written all over him. He's so overrated it's not even funny. I think Manziel has already surpassed what Tannehill ever did at A&M. He hasn't lost a road game in the SEC as a FRESHMAN. He is incredibly impressive. His height doesn't seem to be a distraction at all. He runs out of the pocket like a WR who just caught a screen pass (meaning, he just looks natural running through the defense). He's quite a weapon and I look forward to seeing what he does.

For those saying he's a "spread guy", I will say that to me... he just looks like a damn good QB who happens to be playing in a spread. I can remember people saying Steve Young was a gimmick QB because of the offense BYU was running (which was actually the pure west coast offense). He went to the USFL and looked fine. When he got to Tampa Bay he looked bad, because they weren't running the WCO and he struggled. He got to SF and was a legend, because he was back in the WCO.

By the time Manziel is in the NFL, teams will be running more of the spread than they are now, but I think he has the skillset to play in a standard WCO or normal pro set offense. He seems very smart and you can't teach leadership. He walked into Alabama and beat them and did it with amazing skill and confidence. Unless he has injuries or some severe confidence setback, I see absolutely no reason why he won't be at the very least a solid NFL QB. He's shown more improvement in what 9 games or so than Landry Jones has in 3 years. I think he's the very real deal.

Goes thru his read progression as smoothly and confidently as any QB i've seen including Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, already a master at lookin off safeties, Throws an absolutely beautiful ball. Can run with anybody in the country. And his in game demeanor makes Russell Wilson look like a spaz.

And he's a freshman who only started one season in high school and now 10 games in college.

I don't know if Mariota will be better than Manziel as I haven't seen Johnny play. But I agree with your assesment of Marcus. QBs who can read progress, look off safties, etc. have success written all over them. Add accuracy to his package, which he has as well, and you've got the recipe for excellence on the NFL level. And remeber, I'm a Coug and Husky fan so no Duck homer glasses here.

JSeahawks wrote:I think Manziel is a lot more Robert Griffin 3 then Russell Wilson. Much more athletic then Russell, although I'd rather have Russell as our QB.

Should be interesting. It's hard to tell speed from college games. Wilson ran a 4.55 forty which is FAST. Going back to at least 2001, the only two QBs to ever run faster forties and receive decent draft consideration were Vick and RG3.

JSeahawks wrote:And his in game demeanor makes Russell Wilson look like a spaz.

Okay, now you're just being a homer.

And btw, I just downgraded you from first class to coach on the Russell Wilson bandwagon.

JSeahawks wrote:Mariota will be a better pro. In my opinion.

Before I join you in going overboard, I need to see a game where the rest of the team slumps and Mariota carries the team to a tough victory. As good as he's played, he feels more like an accessory in his offense than the driver. That simply won't be true at the NFL level.

I think if you put him on essentially any other Pac-12 team, his numbers would drop dramatically. You put him on a bad NFL team, same deal. That's why I need to see more adversity. Wilson played for a great team that blew opponents out but still had to face a ton of adversity during his college career. Same thing with Johnny Football. I need to see him carry a team on his back when everything is going wrong, etc. Preferably against a superior opponent.

Last edited by kearly on Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

kearly wrote:Before I join you in going overboard, I need to see a game where the rest of the team slumps and Mariota carries the team to a tough victory. As good as he's played, he feels more like an accessory in his offense than the driver. That simply won't be true at the NFL level.

That was yesterday my friend. I wish you could have watched that game. D was down its top 5 d'linemen and not playing great. Barner and DAT combined for less then 90 yards rushing (Marshall and bennett put up some garbage time rushing yards). Mariota threw 34 times for 377 yards, 6 td's and 0 int's. Also rushed for 42 yards. Final score wasnt close but it was a dogfight in the first half. Mariota carried the team on his back yesterday.

You mean when they played Cal? I'm pretty sure Nick Montana could have beat Cal playing on Oregon that day. Winning blowouts 59-17 against far inferior competition is not what I mean. That is not facing adversity. Maybe when Chip Kelly leaves, we'll get to see this team get tested, though probably not for a year or two.

Oregon is so, so good right now- and I'm proud to say I was one of the few who called it. If memory serves, didn't you pick USC? Mariota is a key part of a GREAT team, but he's an accessory. His value to his team is nowhere near Wilson's value to Wisconsin or RG3's value to Baylor. Every week those QBs faced teams keying on them- Mariota faces teams every week that are keying on Barner and Thomas. Even Montee Ball didn't command the same kind of respect from defenses, and we're now seeing that it was Wilson who made Ball great, not the other way around.

But really, I don't want to paint myself into a corner too much, because I do think Mariota will retire as Oregon's best QB (based on his college numbers). I'm not trying to deny how productive he's been. But I also feel like I've seen plenty of Mariota's before- guys like Kaepernick (2nd round), Tui (2nd round), Charlie Ward (late 1st), and Troy Smith (5th round)- guys who's imperfections were glazed over by fans because they were athletic winners with incredible college production. I see plenty of imperfections with Mariota right now and I also think that his situation makes every TD pass feel more like a layup than a 20 foot contested fading jumper.

That said, hey, he's a RS freshman. Chip Kelly might be gone next year. Things change. Players evolve. Maybe by 2015, I'll be right there with you saying he's a top 10 pick. I just don't see it right now. Right now he's pretty much the poster child of system QBs, and he's never truly been tested or been over-matched. But maybe Kelly leaves and teams start game planning the QB more and things get tougher and Mariota shines bright in the face of intense adversity on a regular basis. Even Andrew Luck crumpled under adversity a bit at Stanford- mainly because he almost never had to deal with it behind his all-universe O-line. That's what I want to see from Mariota, but given how good Oregon is, I honestly wonder if I ever will.

Kelly might leave, but Qb/OC coach Helfritch has a solid track record with Qb going back to his days with ASU. His qb's have always put up big numbers. He's from Oregon and might just be next in li e to be the HC. Even if he doesn't get it, I don't see him leaving with Chip.

Well Kearly, we're just gonna have to agree to disagree on this one cuz i dont see either of us changing the others mind. Luckily for Oregon fans this argument doesnt even matter until after next season at the very earliest, but hopefully not for 2 or 3 more years. (my bet is he leaves after his junior year which will actually be his 4th year in the program since he redshirted).

My last point to try and persuade you... If Akili Smith can go 3rd, Jake Locker can go 8th, Christian Ponder can go 12th, and Tim Freakin Tebow can go in the first round then there's no reason 2 or 3 years down the line from now, as he continues to improve that Mariota won't be in discussion for the number 1 pick. (especially if a guy like Robert Griffin 3 is still doing really well in the league) He has the arm. He has the intangibles. He has the athletecism. He'll have the winning pedigree and "it" factor. Mentally and emotionally on the field I think he's very much like Russell Wilson. I wasnt kidding when I said his in game demeanor makes Wilson look like a spaz, and you know how much i love Russell Wilson. Somebody will fall in love with him whether he's the product of a system or not.

Btw, i'm not disagreeing with you about Oregon's success being a product of a system. I fully understand that our offensive system is what makes it great, not necessarily our individual players. And if you were going to build a robot to run Chip Kelly's offense it woudl be Mariota. I just tthink he's good enough that he can transcend the system and would be a very good QB in any system. I know (well not first hand, but i've heard) that Sark wanted him pretty bad for their pro style offense.

I just think you are perhaps over-estimating certain factors while underestimating others, and it's also obvious that you are basing these conclusions after an emotional rise, "buying high" basically. I'm not even truly disagreeing with you, I'm just far more cautious. You treat it like it's a certainty, but I see it as pretty damn unlikely, though still possible. We'll see. To use a political analogy, it's like your calling a contested swing state for a candidate with 5% in, and I'd rather wait until there's 95% in before I make that same call. A lot of the things I rely on for my QB analysis I haven't seen yet from Mariota, and he definitely does need to work on some of his fundamentals. I think if Colin Kaepernick was on this offense right now, he'd be similarly awesome, probably more awesome since he has better tools and had to carry his team on his back every week at Nevada.