Soccer Notebook: Conditions favor Mexico; confidence goes to U.S.

SOCCER NOTEBOOK

GLENN DAVIS, Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle |
March 20, 2005

It is only seven days away from the much-awaited United States and Mexico World Cup qualifier that will take place at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City.

The United States is 0-21-1 in Mexico with the only positive result coming in November 1997 when it pulled off a scoreless draw in a World Cup qualifier despite the ejection of defender Jeff Agoos.

Azteca Stadium in Mexico City will be a cauldron of pride, which, when mixed with high altitude and smog creates arguably the most difficult conditions in CONCACAF for any team.

But Mexico must play under those same conditions, and who is to say the altitude, smog and pressure placed on the home team by fans expecting a win over their hated rivals will not affect Mexico's players?

I'm convinced the time is right for the United States to pull off their first victory in Mexico and at Azteca Stadium.

Here's why U.S. wins

The current U.S. national team under manager Bruce Arena is the most confident squad in this country's soccer history.

While U.S. players have been taking risks overseas in professional leagues, many of Mexico's best have remained home in the relative comfort of the Mexican League.

Recently in Houston to play a friendly match for Club America, Mexican national team member Pavel Pardo mentioned to me that more Mexican players need to go to Europe to stretch themselves as players and to benefit the national team.

The experience gathered overseas by U.S. players has given the squad an added level of mental toughness and maturity over the years.

That makes going into Azteca Stadium this time less daunting than in the past.

The U.S. team is in control right now, having won five out of its last seven meetings against Mexico, which includes five shutouts. The U.S. team conceded one goal, which came in a 1-0 loss at Azteca Stadium on its last visit there in July 2001 during World Cup qualifying.

Lone goal is amazing

For Mexico to be limited to one goal against the United States in seven games is a major feat.

Mexico also has not scored more than two goals against the United States since July 25, 1993, in Mexico City.

Sure, these are just numbers, but make no mistake, the psychological advantage is in the U.S. camp, hands down.

Next Sunday, the U.S. team needs to take a page out of the book of Costa Rica, which pulled off a 2-1 win at Azteca during the 2001 World Cup qualifying phase by getting a healthy portion of ball possession. With possession comes the ability to manage the game's tempo.

Mexico will be urged on by its fans and the U.S. team will need to weather the early storm but also recognize timely opportunities to attack, especially if Mexico gets overcommitted and anxious while sending players forward.

With the blazing pace and skill of Beasley, Donovan and young F.C. Dallas talent Eddie Johnson, team speed is formidable on the counterattack, something Mexico clearly is aware of.

Key to the match

Goalkeeping could be the difference. The United States has the edge with Keller, if Arena starts him, over Oscar Perez of Cruz Azul for Mexico.

Make no mistake, it won't be easy. The U.S. team likely will be without experienced defenders Eddie Pope and Frankie Hejduk. Arena also has the tricky job of finding the correct balance between European-based players and MLS players. Arena, in the past, has shown a knack for putting players in positions to succeed.

Emotional control was vital when the United States knocked Mexico out of the last World Cup 2-0 and it will be again in Mexico City in a week's time. Add good fortune and the U.S. national team might pull off one of its greatest wins.

Question of the week

I think the United States will pull off a positive result in Mexico. Do you agree or disagree and tell me why?