Last September, amid the debt-ceiling debacle and Europe going all to hell, economic-forecasting firm ECRI declared that the economy was "tipping into recession."

At the time, this call was not surprising: the economy really did look like it was headed into the tank. ECRI's call also left no wiggle room: Unlike many mealy-mouthed Wall Street predictions, it was precise and clear: "The economy is tipping into a recession."

ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan amplified the call with high-profile media appearances in which he stated unequivocally that a recession was imminent and unavoidable.

Six months later, the economy is still growing steadily, if unspectacularly. In fact, GDP growth has improved since ECRI made its call.

What's more, ECRI's famous recession predictor, the Weekly Leading Index, is now improving steadily every week, suggesting that the economic outlook is getting better, not worse.

ECRI's forecasts are highly controversial on Wall Street, because ECRI refuses to explain what factors it considers when making them.

ECRI simply insists that its forecasts are never wrong.

In recent months, as ECRI's September call has appeared more and more wrong--again, GDP growth has improved since September--ECRI has done what many Wall Street forecasters do when their calls don't materialize: Explain that their call didn't mean what everyone thinks it meant and extend the time frame for their prediction. Some economic indicators are deteriorating, Mr. Achuthan told CNN recently, and the recession will begin soon.

And there's no doubt that a recession will begin sometime.

But it seems highly unlikely that what ECRI meant when it told clients last September that "the economy is tipping into recession" was that GDP would immediately improve and then

ecri is correct...the slowdowns in the rest of the world MATTER...in the last 10 yers correlations between nations economics have surged together...so when china, india, brazil, europe etc are falling america isnt an oasis

lets remember how innacurate mr bludgett was in 2000 when tech stocks crashed on his lousey advice

ecri is correct...the slowdowns in the rest of the world MATTER...in the last 10 yers correlations between nations economics have surged together...so when china, india, brazil, europe etc are falling america isnt an oasis

lets remember how innacurate mr bludgett was in 2000 when tech stocks crashed on his lousey advice

Lets see!!! Energy consumption is falling...Income Tax receipts are falling...Imports are falling...yet, we’re in this tremendous recovery. Either ECRI is correct or the US economy has invented a perpetual motion machine.

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