In the second half of 2010, the term “gamification” became bi-polar: you either loved it or hated it. People on the “love” side see it as the future of engagement and marketing. People on the “hate” side see it as a gimmick.

Gabe provides his thoughts in an article at Huffington Post. While the term is effective in capturing the essence, it’s not perfect. As a result, “gamification” will be used less and less in 2011. In its place will be a set of new terms, based on its specific applications (e.g. game-based marketing, game-based social initiatives, etc.).

A Sub-Industry Develops

This is more an observation, rather than a prediction (since it’s already happening): an industry has developed around “gamification”. When folks convene for a conference or summit, that’s my measuring stick to tell me that an industry is emerging. In the virtual events space, that happened in 2009 with the Virtual Edge Summit (which, by the way, has its third annual conference, also in January 2011).

If you look at the sponsor and speaker lists for this event, you’ll see a number of start-ups who built their business around gamification. In 2011, we’ll see some “bubble like” behavior (perhaps we’re already seeing it now), where entrepreneurs look to build the next great gamification companies. In the second half of 2011, however, the bubble settles and the early winners emerge.

Jane McGonigal of Palo Alto-based Institute for the Future once said, “Any time I consider a new project, I ask myself, is this pushing the state of gaming toward Nobel Prizes? If it’s not, then it’s not doing anything important enough to spend my time.” (source: Salon.com article from 2007).

In 2011, we’ll see game mechanics applied increasingly to the “greater good” – initiatives that can change the world.

Armchair Revolutionary is a great example – consider one of their slogans, “shape the future by playing a game”. In 2011, lots of “revolutionaries” emerge to rally those who can, to provide help to those in need.

Game Mechanics Go Mainstream – But Consumers Don’t Know It

Game mechanics are going mainstream, but the typical user won’t know that they’re participating in them. They simply know that they’re engaging in enjoyable activities (side note: there will be similar growth in Foursquare, Gowalla, etc., but users, of course, won’t know that they’re using “location based services”).

For example, Universal Studios announced successful sales of their “Despicable Me” DVD – their press release attributes some of the success to a “Minions Madness” promotion, “a points-based reward and social media program spotlighting the film’s beloved mischief-makers, the Minions.” This promotion was powered by Bunchball, a game mechanics start-up.

Bunchball (and related companies) has built a nice client list of broadcast networks, cable networks and film studios. In 2011, additional media outlets come on board. Game mechanics go more and more mainstream, even though the typical mainstream user doesn’t know it. Watch out in 2012, however, as consumer-based game mechanics suffer some fatigue (as consumers then see “much too much” of it).

Google adopts game mechanics as a means for bridging their search business and social services (e.g. adding game mechanics to Google Me). Others who add game mechanics include Netflix, eBay and Groupon. Of course, it’s natural to expect that more and more virtual event experiences will add game mechanics, too.

Conclusion

2010 has been an interesting year for gamification. 2011 will kick off with an industry event and where we go from there will be exciting to watch. I’ll check back mid-year with a report card on these predictions. Here’s hoping I attain the “crystal ball badge”.

It all started two years ago today. The first blog post was made on December 12, 2008. Since that time, I’ve covered virtual trade shows, hybrid events, virtual worlds, Second Life, social media and many other topics. It’s been a fun ride to date, but I’m even more excited about what the next 2 or 5 years will bring. For now, let’s take a look back at five selected posts from the past two years.

What Started It All

My first post, from December 2008, looked ahead to 2009. It was titled “2009: The Year We Go Virtual“. I was mostly on target with this post, except for that innocent comment where I noted that face-to-face event producers would struggle to survive. I should have known that physical events would never go away – and, I hadn’t considered what would follow in 2009/2010, the hybrid event. Whoops.

Lenovo’s 3D World, Powered by web.alive

This posting, from January 2009, remains today the top grossing piece on this blog. Lenovo launched a 3D world to promote their Thinkpad notebooks. It used the web.alive 3D platform from Nortel (and is now part of Avaya, via Avaya’s acquisition of Nortel). While touring the environment, I met Nic Sauriol, the Venture Lead for the project and he took me on a personal tour. Read more: “Review: Lenovo’s eLounge Virtual World“.

Musings on Physical Events & Virtual Events

(Photo courtesy of “ExhibitPeople” on flickr)

Physical events have been around for a long time. So I decided to write about what we like at physical events and consider how those “features” could work in a virtual event. I didn’t expect it at the time, but this turned out to be one of the most popular postings this year. For more: “Bringing The Physical Event Experience To Virtual Events“.

Branching out from virtual events, I shared some thoughts on the topics of social gaming, location-based services, “gamification” and loyalty programs. In the coming 1-3 years, gamification, location services and virtual events will come together (via API’s and integration). On the gamification front, it’s noteworthy that San Francisco will be home to the Gamification Summit in January 2011. For the full post: “The Name Of The Game Is Engagement“.

Conclusion

It’s been a great two years. It’s hard to imagine what the (virtual) “world” will look like in another two years. There’s one thing for sure: I’ll be blogging about it. Come along for the journey and subscribe to regularly receive my posts. Until next time!