This is another one of those small signs that the combination of ice thickness and warm waters are overruling the influence of weather conditions. For the first time this melting season the IJIS numeric data of sea ice extent file is showing an uptick for yesterday's extent number after revision...

This is another one of those small signs that the combination of ice thickness and warm waters are overruling the influence of weather conditions. For the first time this melting season the IJIS numeric data of sea ice extent file is showing an uptick for yesterday's extent number after revision...

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

Luckily there are a few more days left until Saturday, so we can see how things develop from here. But again, if this comes about, what I have written in this SIE update becomes totally irrelevant. Thin ice, warm waters AND perfect weather conditions... Oh, dear.
Sooooo... how does it look? Are we still in for a big week next week?

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

Ned, fear not: Even to a newcomer like me, it's pretty obvious that Paul's conclusions are speculation, not fact. (And he has repeatedly said as much.) The same is true of most of what is said on this blog or, for that matter, on any blog.

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

Thanks Patrice. So you're saying it's an arbitrary threshold intended to reduce measurement error. That's not exactly comforting. Is it a reasonable estimate of the overall physical state of the ice, or the ability of the ice to reflect sunlight, or even the usefulness of the ice as polar bear habitat, for example? If say the entire arctic were covered in 20% ice, how would that compare to say one quarter of the area covered in thick multiyear ice? What's the correlation, if any, between SIE and the actual health of the arctic ice system? Basically, if it's just an arbitrary threshold to reduce noise, should I care about it? All this emphasis on whether some arbitrary measure will beat or not beat the level in 2007 seems strange. If everyone's so convinced that the health of the ice is worse than 2007, why not use a measure that more directly reflects that health? Surely we have the technology?

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

Sorry if this is the wrong place to ask, but is there any underlying meaning to 15% ice coverage (even barring all the complications with sensing and calculating), or is it completely arbitrary? If it is arbitrary, shouldn't more attention be focussed on physically meaningful measures?

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...

During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...