Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: April trade deficit unchanged and NZD reaches for 0.7100
The NZD remained within a tight range during Friday's local session, initially well supported around 0.7000. Local data released on the day consisted of the final read of April's trade balance and the deficit was unchanged at $147mn. The currency slowly strengthened into the local sessions close but dipped to 0.6987 as anti EUR comments were made by an Italian politician and were released over the wires. The NZD soon recovered with the US non-farm payrolls number looming ahead. The currency spiked to around 0.7060 immediately before the data release however the payrolls number disappointed, but despite this, the USD rallied pushing the local currency to an intraday low of 0.6982. Trading during Queen's Birthday holiday saw the NZD regain Friday night's lost ground leaping to a high of 0.7099 aided by a resurgent euro and new uridashi issuance. It opens around 0.7085 this morning.

Australian Dollar: AUD helped up by EUR gains
The AUD continued to capitalise on its recent momentum and climbed albeit slowly during Friday's local session. Local data released on the day was minor with Q1 house prices rising 0.2%qtr and posting 0.4% for the year. Like its NZ cousin the AUD spiked higher before the US payrolls but was then at the mercy of USD direction. Volatility took AUD/USD to a low of 0.7537 and choppy trading was the theme for the remainder of Friday's offshore session. The AUD was better bid during Monday's trading helped by stronger base metal prices and a recovering EUR. The currency opens around 0.7650 this morning.

Major Currencies: Dollar stable despite data
The dollar slipped slightly against the major currencies over the long weekend following weaker than expected payrolls data. After the data the euro squeezed up to 1.2340 before selling off sharply to just above 1.2200 in choppy trading. During the offshore session yesterday the euro gained slightly in quiet trading and opens this morning around 1.2265. Sterling followed suit for most of the weekend, but managed to gain in yesterday's session reaching a 1.8250. JPY was the main benefactor of dollar weakness, falling to 106.72 yesterday as investors took heart from positive data out of Japan.

Events Today US payrolls grow by just 78k in May. The slowest payrolls gain in almost two years in May pulls 3 month average jobs growth back to 158k, from 193k in the 3 months to Feb. Weakness was evident in manufacturing and some pockets of the services sector, notably information, leisure and temp hiring, though the modest leisure decline followed a 66k surge in April. Construction and retail jobs were solid, consistent with the notion that a housing and related retail spending boom is underway, but even here the gains were not as strong as in April. Other detail included a modest 0.1% rise in hours worked and a 0.2% earnings gain, both a bit soft but following more robust April outcomes, so not too surprising. But unemployment fell to 5.1%.

US ISM non-manufacturing slips from 61.7 to 58.5 in May. However most of the detail was actually stronger in May, for orders, exports, jobs and delivery times. The headline fall reflects a seasonal distortion which dates back to the Iraq war two years ago, which means the seasonal factors in subsequent years are flattering in March-April but tough in May. The underlying detail confirms a still robust performance in the non-manufacturing economy (i.e. construction and services), only slightly off the cracking pace of Q1, when for example new orders averaged 61.4, compared to 59.3 in the latest two months.

its highest reading for the year so far  a rare positive piece of news for Euroland. On a national basis, France and Germany both posted rises, but the Italian economy again disappointed; its services PMI slipped from 48.4 to 47.3. In contrast, April retail sales were very weak, pointing to lacklustre Euroland domestic demand at the start of Q2.

back to where it was in Feb but is still running at a healthy pace, in contrast to the manufacturing PMI, sub 50 for two months now.

Another steep fall in orders, with both the domestic and foreign components weak.

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