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Analyst warns of risk of nuclear war

ELEANOR HALL: One North Korea analyst is warning that this is a very dangerous moment for the region and he says he is scared that the United States administration may further inflame the tensions.

Dr Leonid Petrov is a specialist on North Korea based at the University of Sydney and he joined me earlier.

Dr Petrov, does this latest successful test now mean that North Korea is in a position to launch a nuclear attack on its neighbours?

LEONID PETROV: Oh, I don't think North Korea is planning to launch a nuclear attack on its neighbours. The whole idea of having nuclear weapons for North Korean regime is simply to send a message that North Korea must not be attacked. North Korea, or any neighbours or foes of North Korea, North Korea has many foes, so North Korea tries to develop a psychological deterrence measure.

The regime is really expecting that forced regime change might take place. Some pre-emptive strike might be arranged by the United States and still there's no peace treaty with South Korea. South Korea is the hostage of this animosity between North Korea, United States and the rest of the world.

ELEANOR HALL: Well if this is a message directed to the United States, president Obama warned that it's a threat to regional stability. The South Koreans also are sounding more aggressive. What is the risk now of a retaliation, of the risk of a regional conflict?

LEONID PETROV: It's very high. We saw in year 2010 when there were two major clashes between North and South Korea, and South Korean corvette was destroyed by mysterious torpedo. Relations between north and south are very tense. There's no communication and the hostilities can unfold any moment.

But this time, and North Korea demonstrates clear that they do have nuclear weapons. Sooner or later the conflict might transgress into a nuclear one.

And the presence of international forces, particularly the US fleet and US troops on the southern part of the Korean Peninsula might deteriorate the whole situation where North Korea feels more paranoid and overreact to some actions.

So tensions are high and stakes are very high too because the North Korean regime understands that sooner or later it might collapse and in order to protect and buy time, protect their own interests, they try to use any possible measures including the nuclear option.

ELEANOR HALL: Well you say that at this stage a North Korean missile could only reach as far as South Korea, but if there were to be a nuclear conflict in this region, what would it look like? Is Australia vulnerable?

LEONID PETROV: Well at the moment Australia is not vulnerable because North Koreans don't have the precise enough technology to deliver the payloads. It looks like yesterday they detonated a small nuclear device - small means definitely smaller even than Hiroshima bomb. But even the rockets are not very reliable.

We saw the failure of rocket technology in North Korea in April 2012, the tests and the perfection of this program is going to target the United States and its allies. So potentially Australia might be targeted if North Koreans believe that Australia is a hostile power.

ELEANOR HALL: Do you think that Australia could take on a broader diplomatic role and in fact negotiate for the western community more generally?

LEONID PETROV: Well Australia should make its Korea policy more balanced. At the moment we have very strong relations with South Korea, both trade, security, diplomatic relations, but almost no trade and very limited diplomatic contacts with Pyongyang. Pyongyang is going to reopen it embassy some time this year in Canberra so I think it will be more exposure to what's going on inside North Korean politics if we have diplomatic representatives here.

I think exerting soft power is going to be much more effective rather than simply threatening and using megaphone diplomacy and threatening with more sanctions.

ELEANOR HALL: Well China is of course a key ally of North Korea. How are you reading the Chinese leadership's reaction?

LEONID PETROV: China is in a difficult position because they still consider North Korea their ally. But it's a problematic ally. Chinese politicians still operate in the old frame of Cold War mentality and this spoils many things. But such mentality is also persisting in the Washington DC and in many other capitals.

So the whole region, north-east Asia, turned into the, again to returns to the old game of Cold War confrontation since late 2000.

North-east Asia remains a problematic region, a region without regionalism and now we have one of the countries turning into a nuclear power. It's a nightmare for non-proliferation regime in general. If North Korea goes nuclear then what South Korea will do?

Japan might decide to go ahead with a nuclear option. Taiwan might follow suit. So altogether that's bad news for regional stability and I think that diplomacy clearly failed. So we have to return to negotiating table.