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Monday, November 5, 2012

Predicting the Presidential Election

I love Electoral College math. I mean, I teach mathematics
and I write about politics, so pouring over various Electoral College
combinations is right up my alley. Experts all across the country are telling
us that this presidential election is coming down to a handful of
“battleground” states. Thus, Romney and Obama are spending virtually all of
their time and money in these final days before November 6 in states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, New
Hampshire, and the like.

For most American voters, the memory of the 2000 election,
where George W. Bush beat Al Gore in a narrow Electoral victory (271 to 266)
while losing the popular vote 48.4% to 47.9%, is still fresh. The weeks-long
battle to count and recount votes in Florida, where the phrase “hanging chads”
entered our vernacular, is a path to which no one wants to return. For 36 days,
the winner of the 2000 presidential election was in limbo. After countless
hours of elections officials leering at ballots, nonstop media coverage, and 47
lawsuits, ultimately it took a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court to put the
matter to rest.

Do not let your hearts be troubled. In spite of the seeming
closeness of this race, another outcome like 2000 is highly unlikely. In fact,
only four times in our nation’s history has the winner of the popular vote not
gone on to occupy 1600 Pennsylvania
Avenue.

Prior to the 2000 election,
the last time such an event occurred was 112 years earlier, in 1888. Incumbent
Grover Cleveland narrowly won the popular vote (eight-tenths of a percent), but
Benjamin Harrison easily (by 65 votes) carried the Electoral College. Two other
times during the 19th century the winner of the popular vote failed
to win the presidency.

The closest Electoral College
result in American history occurred in 1876 when Democrat Samuel Tilden won the
popular vote by three percent but lost the Electoral College vote to Republican
Rutherford Hayes 185 to 184. Probably the strangest presidential election
result was one of the earliest. (An excellent source for such data is Dave Leip’s (online) Atlas of
U.S. Presidential Elections.)

In 1824, four candidates
received significant support: Henry Clay, William Crawford, Andrew Jackson, and
John Quincy Adams. Jackson
won the popular vote (41%), followed by Adams (31%), Crawford (16%), and Clay
(14%). Jackson
also won the Electoral Vote with 99 votes. Adams
received 84 while Crawford and Clay received 41 and 37 respectively.

However, Jackson’s Electoral support was not enough to
win the presidency. According to the 12th Amendment, the election
then went to the House of Representatives where Adams
was the winner.

A significant mathematical
note here is that in only one case where the winner of the popular vote lost
the Electoral College did the candidate actually receive over 50% of the
popular vote: Tilden in 1876 with 51%—and remember this was the closest
Electoral result in U.S. history. So out of the 56 U.S. presidential elections, only
once did a candidate receive over 50% of the popular vote and not make it to
the White House.

All of this is to say that, in
spite of the ENORMOUS amount of attention (not to mention polling) paid to a
handful of states, perhaps the best indicator of who will win the presidency
are the national popular vote polls. If it looks likely that a candidate is
going to receive at least 51% of the national popular vote, an Electoral
victory is almost certain.

Political expert Charlie Cook
(The Cook Political Report) said
as much back in June of this year. “All of this time and effort spent
parsing state-level polls would be better spent more closely examining the
national polling data, particularly looking at how the candidates are
performing now compared with Obama and John McCain in 2008, and examining how
likely the members of specific (and potentially decisive) demographic groups
are to actually vote.”

Cook also notes that, “If a
race is close nationally, it will be close in a lot of individual states, too.”
His implication above is that the inverse is also true. If the race is not
close nationally, then it will not be close in very many states, including the
“battleground” states. In other words, once a candidate reaches a particular
level of support nationally, any of the states that were particularly close are
almost certainly in line with the national vote.

As I indicated above, that
level of support seems to be around 52%. If Romney or Obama gets to this
number, any states that are seemingly tied are virtually guaranteed to be in
the camp of the leader. Therefore, as we approach November 6, keep an eye on
the national polls. (Real Clear
Politics (RCP) is an excellent source.)

Of course, currently Romney is
the candidate in the best position for such an outcome. As of this writing,
Romney’s RCP national polling average stands at 48% while Obama is at 47%.
Also, Romney has been at or above 50% in about half of the national polls in
the last ten days. Gallup,
in its six day polling average, has had Romney at or above 50% since October
15. During this same period Obama has been at 47% or below. No presidential
candidate that has polled at 50% or better in the Gallup survey by the middle of October has
gone on to lose the election. (Gallup has correctly predicted 16 of 19
presidential races dating back to 1936.)

Keep a particularly close eye on
the national polls on the Saturday through Monday prior to Election Day. Most
polling agencies will then produce their final predictions. These are the polls
upon which their reputations mostly rest, and accuracy will be essential. Plus,
extreme efforts to predict any voters left undecided (most of which will prefer
the challenger to the incumbent) will be taken. Of course, when all else fails,
just check in Wednesday, November 7. This (usually) will tell us everything.

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I was born in 1969 to Edsel and Carolyn Thomas and have lived all my life in Northeast Georgia. I've been a follower of Jesus since 1986. I am originally from White County, where I graduated from high school and lived for the first twenty-plus years of my life. (Most of my family and my wife’s family live in White County.) Michelle and I married on January 31, 1998. We have 4 beautiful children (three boys and one girl): Caleb, born 2002; Jesse, born 2004; Caroline born 2006; and Noah born in 2008. We currently reside in the North Hall area. I have a BS degree in physics from the University of North Georgia, an MEd in mathematics education from the University of North Georgia, and an EdS in mathematics education from the University of Georgia. I've been teaching high school mathematics (public and private) since 1993. In 2013 my wife and I published Debt-Free Living in a Debt-Filled World. In 2016 I published The Miracle and Magnificence of America. I have been writing opinion columns since 2001. I have been blogging (though not with my own blog) since 2007. My hobbies include anything that allows me to spend time with my family, and includes action movies, swimming, hunting, fishing, gardening, and maintaining my lawn. I also enjoy most sports that involve a ball, and try (somewhat) hard to not cuss while watching the Georgia Bulldogs, the Atlanta Falcons, Braves, and Hawks, and the Dallas Cowboys.