DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Although it has developed a lean to Labor over the last decade, the south-eastern suburbs seat of Oakleigh has been hotly contested through a history going back to 1927, having changed hands in 1932 (from Labor to conservative), 1937, 1947, 1950, 1961, 1979 and 1992. The electorate extends from Carnegie in the west through Oakleigh in the centre to Clayton in the east, the latter having been added by the redistribution. The newly gained territory accounts for 4500 voters from the abolished seat of Clayton, along with 500 voters and a Synchrotron from Mulgrave. This transfer encompasses the Monash University’s Clayton campus, which causes the electorate to rank second behind Melbourne for the highest number of university students. At the western end, a small strip of territory has been transferred to Caulfield, accounting for 2750 voters in Caulfied East, Glen Huntly and Ormond. The changes have shaved 0.4% from the Labor margin.

Oakleigh was won for Labor at the 1979 election by former Whitlam government minister Race Mathews, who was in turn unseated by Liberal candidate Denise McGill in the 1992 landslide. A 2.8% correction in 1996 brought McGill to within a handful of votes of defeat at the hands of Labor candidate Ann Barker, who prevailed on her second attempt in 1999 after a further swing of 3.4%. Barker had first entered parliament as member for Bentleigh in 1988, but was swept out in the 1992 landslide. She picked up a 12.3% swing in Oakleigh in 2002, impressive even by the standards of that election, leaving her with enough fat to withstand successive adverse swings of of 2.8% and 7.7% in 2006 and 2010.

With Barker to retire at the election, Oakleigh will be contested for Labor by Stephen Dimopoulos, a local café owner who has served on Monash City Council since 2003, including a stint as mayor. The Liberal candidate, Theo Zographos, is also a Monash councillor, and ran unsuccessfully in 2010.