SchifferLine 1 December 2010

Timely Real Estate News…………………………………………….1 December 2010

*********************************************************************************************************************************************Black Friday turns in a good showing….good news to follow? Well, you shoppers did your part; now let’s see if Wall Street is going to respond. Bad news from Ireland and the EU has sent the markets down because of the destabilization of the Euro caused by the huge debts many EU countries are facing now. Wall Street is hoping to offset this glum news with US retail sales leading the way to our economic recovery. The good news is that Black Friday — a prime indicator of just how happy shoppers are these days — recorded more than $45 billion in sales for just one day (excuse me….this also includes the sales recorded pre-midnight on Thanksgiving). That’s up from $41.2 billion from a year ago… So just how many shoppers does it take to spend $45 billion in one day? 215 million….up from 195 million from 2009 Black Friday. What’s left in your wallet?

We all have heard the horror stories about Black Friday, and no, it isn’t related to the Black Plague, although some retail workers may think so. The term dates back to 1966, although it was primarily localized to the East Coast. National retailers knew a good thing when they saw it, and the tradition spread quickly through the country, and the world for that matter. These days, retailers find themselves trying to ‘trump’ the competition. And each year, the store openings have surged backward (not forward)…and some retailers, who shall go nameless, opened as early 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving and other, more sedate retailers moved up their 6 a.m. openings to midnight.

“Door buster” deals are the common thread amongst bargain hunters — and you can find as much as 60% to 90% discounts on popular items. Holiday shopping days, which traditionally started on the day after Thanksgiving, has moved up to….yup, August. Have you walked through Wal-Mart or Costco in late August? That’s when the summer stuff exits and the trees, lights, and other Holiday goodies come out in all their glory.

But it ain’t over ’til it’s over, as Yogi says. You may be one of 106.9 million-plus online shoppers who will take advantage of Cyber Monday. This is the online version of Black Friday and there was an increase of 19.1% in sales over 2009. Brick and mortar shoppers spent an average of $365 and change this past holiday weekend, up from $343 last year. Interestingly, most cyber shoppers are going to make their online purchases while at work…and 88% of retailers offered Cyber Monday specials. So, if you haven’t already been online, you probably missed out on some handsome deals.

“12 Days of Christmas” just got pricier…… .

Sorry, but had to do this: Every year, there is the consumer index and the Christmas Index — how much does it cost to purchase every item in this traditional holiday song? Well, hold onto your wallet — would you believe nearly $100,000? Actually, it’s $96,824, an increase of 10.8% over last year according to the index tracker — PNC Wealth Management. OK, so you don’t want the whole list of 364 items — perhaps just one of each. How much does this cost? Can you spare $23,439? Or 9.2% over 2009. Five golden rings have shot up over 30% — to $649.95. You will be happy to learn that four of the 12 gifts did not go up in price from last year: The pear tree $149, not including the partridge), four calling birds ($499.95), six geese ($150), and eight maids-a-milking ($58). The most expensive item on the list is nine ladies dancing for $6,294.03, a 20% increase. I think I’ll stick to my own Holiday Index — which is always bad enough. And no, I am sure my index is also up this year….but not at $100,000!

Sales of previously homes slipped slightly in October according to the National Association of Realtors .

The National Association of Realtors said last Tuesday in the LA Times that sales of previously owned homes dipped 2.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million units. The performance was weaker than had been expected. Economists at JPMorgan Chase had forecast that sales would rise in October to an annual rate of 4.60 million units. The median price for a home sold in October was $170,500 (on a national level — not here in Los Angeles), down 0.9 percent from a year ago, as prices continue to be depressed by weak sales conditions and a huge overhang of unsold homes.

National sales #s plunged to the slowest pace in 15 years in July and then posted gains in August and September before slipping back in October. Sales in October were 38.9 percent below their peak of 7.25 million units set in September 2005 during the height of the housing boom. The housing market has never fully recovered from the downturn. Many buyers worry home prices could fall further. Some can’t sell their current home to upgrade to a larger home, either because they have lost equity or they can’t find prospective buyers. One of the major problems I have seen is that the moratorium many big lenders imposed on foreclosures may have dampened sales in October by introducing more uncertainty in the sales market. But the Realtors group goes on to say “….a bigger problem is tight lending standards that banks have put in place in the wake of record foreclosures.”

Those lending standards mean that many potential home buyers can’t qualify for mortgages even though mortgage rates have plummeted. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.39 percent last week. That was up from from 4.17 percent the previous week — the lowest level on records dating back to 1971.

“The dial has been tightened way too much” on lending standards, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. Yun forecast that sales of existing homes for the entire year will total 4.8 million units, which would be 7 percent below the 5.16 million homes sold last year, showing that the housing market continues to struggle with tight credit and unemployment that remains painfully high in the wake of the worst recession since the 1930s.

The forecast of 4.8 million sales would be the poorest performance since 1997 when 4.37 million homes were sold. Yun said he was looking for a modest rebound in 2011 as the labor market slowly improves. He forecast sales of previously owned homes would rise to 5.1 million units next year, capping a wild decade in which a housing boom pushed sales and home prices to record levels only to see a collapse starting in 2006. Sales were down in all regions of the country in October.

Sales fell 3.4 percent in the South, the largest decline of any region. Sales fell 1.9 percent in the West, 1.3 percent in the Northeast and 1.1 percent in the Midwest. Sales volumes — a different measurement — is up 30% from 2009 in the four areas I report on, Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel Air and Brentwood.

In comparing the Westside to the reports out of Washington D.C., I find that we have to take all of this with a kindly ‘grain of salt’….we’re not like other regions in the US. Yes, Los Angeles, as a whole, takes its ‘hits’ like all other major metropolitan regions. But on the Westside, when you look at the strength we’ve had recently this year in just the four areas I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and even Brentwood (which has experienced a slower-than-normal recovery in median sales prices), we are seeing some resurgence in home prices and sales volumes. So, this is good news.

I’ve been in this business a relatively long time (over 25 years), and we–as Realtors–get involved in a myriad of transactions. We can’t always control the outcome. We do our best to carry out the wishes of both the buyers and sellers, and regardless of what we might feel about how a home should be priced or what is purchased for, ultimately, it is our clients (customers) who have the final say. I recently was involved in a sale where the seller was anxious to sell and had already moved out of state. The seller was given an offer by the buyer, which we negotiated for over a month . We ended up selling the house at a price that was reasonably acceptable to the seller, but unfortunately was below the comparable asking prices for other homes in her neighborhood. While I felt that the price was lower than I would have liked it to be or knew it could possibly be with another buyer (we did in fact receive a higher offer after we had accepted the original offer), I didn’t try to talk either the buyer or seller out of the offered price — that is NOT my job. I am a negotiator, advisor, messenger and facilitator — and I endeavor, on every transaction, to provide the best service and advice I can. In the end, however, the buyer and seller are the ultimate decision makers. It’s not my property — it’s theirs to sell; it’s theirs to purchase. While I may wish to see different outcomes some times, I have learned long ago that unless I am either the buyer or seller myself, I am not a party to the transaction, and as an advisor, I cannot insert my feelings or emotions into the transaction.. When buyers and sellers agree and the escrow closes — that’s a successful transaction, no matter how I may define success. The customers, in the end, are always right. “It is not my house, and it’s not my money.”

While I generally am not one to toot my own horn, I want to thank all of you who have helped place me in the top 1% of all of the 45,000 agents working for Coldwell Banker nationally.. I could not have done this without your trust, and loyality and I must add a lot of hard work on my part. That was one of the many things I gave thanks for last week on Thanksgiving.

With all of the holiday baking and eating we will be doing in the next few weeks, I thought we all might like to know…. White sugar vs raw sugar

Sugar and the environment What’s the difference between white and raw sugar in terms of environmental impact? What about raw and brown sugar – are these the same product?

Let’s take a brief look at how each of these cane sugar variations are created.

How raw sugar is made. Sugar cane is initially pressed and the juice is then mixed with lime to achieve the desired ph balance and to help settle out impurities. The resulting liquid is reduced through evaporation, then a centrifuge is used to separate sugar crystals. It is then dried further to produce granules. The brown color of raw sugar is due to presence of molasses.

How white sugar is made. “White” sugar is created in a couple of ways. Mill white sugar is the result of sulphur dioxide being introduced to the cane juice before evaporation. It effectively bleaches the mixture. In the production of refined white sugar, which is the most common product in the Western world, the raw sugar syrup is mixed with a heavy syrup and run through a centrifuge again to take away the outer coating of the raw sugar crystals. Phosphoric acid and calcium hydroxide are then added to the juice which then combine and absorb or trap impurities. Alternatively, carbon dioxide is used to achieve the same effect. The resulting syrup is then filtered through a bed of activated carbon to remove molasses and then crystallized a number of times under vacuum. It is then further dried to produce white refined sugar like we buy in the store.

Brown sugar. Brown sugar is refined white sugar with a molasses syrup mixed in, then dried again, Sugar cane and the environment. Environmentally speaking, the less processing required means the less energy used, less waste products and fewer chemicals. While whole or crushed sugar cane can be difficult to source in the city, out of the options remaining, raw sugar is the more earth friendly option and brown sugar oddly enough is the worst choice. The bad news about sugar and the environment doesn’t end with how the syrup is processed into a final product. Effluent and waste from sugar mills creates major problems for local environments. Pesticides and herbicides applied during cultivation contaminate the ground and water supplies. Added to these problems is the firing of sugar cane prior to harvesting which pumps millions of tons of carbon dioxide and other chemicals into the atmosphere each year. Natural habitats in sensitive areas are often cleared in order to grow sugar cane to meet increasing demand.

I hope you have a wonderful holiday season. Please don’t forget that I still have some wonderful listings, including leases and sales in Bel Air Crest, Mountaingate, and a new lease listing on that magical street Moraga Drive.