{% include "includes/auth/janrain/signIn_traditional.html" with message='It looks like you are already verified. If you still have trouble signing in, you probably need a new confirmation link email.' %}

Miami Dolphins roster analysis: Top 5 position needs for 2012

The 2011 season just ended four days ago, but wouldn’t you know it, the 2012 season is already upon us! The NFL Combine will be held in Indianapolis in two weeks (Feb. 22-28), then free agency begins March 13 at 4 p.m. And at some point in between, the Colts will probably release some guy named Payton Manning. So yes, still a lot of football on our plates the next few weeks.

Five weeks ago, we gave you a snapshot of the Dolphins’ roster heading into the offseason. Today, we’ll take a look at the Dolphins’ top position needs this offseason, and their options for filling them via free agency and the draft.

A few things to consider:

1) The Dolphins have 39 players under contract, 10 unrestricted free agents (of which only 3-4 are likely to be re-signed), four restricted free agents (who should all be back) and five exclusive rights free agents (who will be back).

2) The Dolphins currently have a 2012 salary cap figure of $116,636,173. We’ll get into the salary cap more in a future post, but this means the Dolphins may have to get creative in order to add more than one impact free agent.

3) The Dolphins are switching to a 4-3 defense, which creates a couple holes to be filled.

4) The Dolphins’ draft plans will depend heavily on how much money they spend on a quarterback in free agency (if any).

Now our look at the Dolphins’ top five positional needs this offseason:

Quarterback isn’t really the Dolphins’ top “need” this offseason — Matt Moore played quite well in 2011, and has a reasonable $3.775 million cap number for 2012 — but we all know how badly Stephen Ross wants a marquee franchise quarterback, so quarterback has become the Dolphins’ top priority this offseason.

Analysis: Obviously a lot depends on who the Dolphins get in free agency. If they get Manning, who is at the top of their list, then they won’t use a first-round pick on a quarterback. But it wouldn’t be surprising, either, to see them “double down” in the draft and get someone like Tannehill, Weeden or Osweiler in the second round (or late first if they trade down).

If they get Flynn, then they probably don’t need to use a draft pick on a quarterback, since he is only 26 and can be considered the Dolphins’ “quarterback of the future.” If they get neither Manning or Flynn, then RG3 and Tannehill are very much in play, with RG3 requiring a major draft-day trade and Tannehill being a possibility at the 8th/9th pick (a coin flip at the Combine will determine the pick). In that scenario, Moore would enter the year as the starter, and RG3 or Tannehill (whose college coach, Mike Sherman, is the Dolphins’ new offensive coordinator) would be groomed for the future.

The other quarterbacks in free agency probably aren’t options. Alex Smith is likely to return to San Francisco, and none of the other players would be considered anything more than backups. Drew Brees is also a free agent, but he obviously isn’t going anywhere.

If Manning or Flynn is signed, the Dolphins will likely hold onto Moore and attempt to trade him for a quarterback-desperate team, like Cincinnati did with Carson Palmer this year. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and significantly boosted his stock around the league with his performance in 2011.

Jason Taylor’s retirement meant the Dolphins needed to find a pass rusher next year opposite Cameron Wake no matter what. The fact that they’re switching to a 4-3 just means they need to find someone who is better with his hand in the dirt than he is standing up.

Analysis: Adding one of the premier free agents looks tempting, particularly Williams, but the Dolphins may not have the salary cap space to pull it off. And Mathis (Indy), Campbell (Arizona) and Avril (Detroit) are expected to stay with their teams, either via franchise tag or a long-term contract extension. Abraham would provide solid veteran leadership in the locker room and 8-10 sacks. Mincey, who had a breakout year with eight sacks, could provide good bang for the buck. Rucker would be a relatively cheap option and knows defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle from six years in Cincinnati. If Langford returns to the Dolphins, it’s likely to play defensive tackle. Jared Odrick would then move to defensive end.

Coples looks like a great pick for the Dolphins at 8/9, although he had effort issues in his senior year at UNC. Perry, from UNC, also could be an option, though he is a bit undersized at 6-foot-3, 250. The Dolphins could find good value at pass rusher in the second round — Curry had a great week at the Senior Bowl, and Syracuse’s Chandler Jones has good size at 6-5, 265.

This position need is based on whatever the Dolphins do with John Jerry, who likely will be one of the five starters in 2012, his third NFL season. If they put Jerry at right guard, then the Dolphins will probably look at drafting a right tackle with one of their first two picks. If they put him at tackle — and he performed admirably at left tackle at the end of the season — the the Dolphins will likely find their right guard in free agency.

Analysis: If the Dolphins sign Manning or Flynn, then keeping Jerry at guard and drafting Reiff/Martin at 8/9 makes a lot of sense (Reiff especially, given Joe Philbin was previously Iowa’s offensive line coach and remains close with Kirk Ferentz). The free agent class at tackle is also weak, meaning the Dolphins’ best chance at upgrading at tackle (if they keep Jerry at guard) is through the draft.

Nicks — considered one of the best, if not the best, guards in the game — would be a great signing, but the Dolphins likely wouldn’t be able to afford him if they sign Manning or Flynn. Mathis is going back to Philly, which leaves Carey, who will be 31 next season, as the other viable option. He played fairly well overall last year in his first year at right guard, and could be a good value signing for the Dolphins if they don’t take a lineman in the draft. And after taking Mike Pouncey last year in the first round, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins using another first or second-round pick on an interior lineman.

The Dolphins do have a lot of versatility at linebacker for the switch to the 4-3: Karlos Dansby can play all three positions, Kevin Burnett can play both outside spots and Koa Misi can play in the middle or strong-side. But most likely, Dansby will play the middle, Burnett will be on the weak side and Misi will either move back to defensive end or be a “utility backup” at all three positions.

Top Free Agents: Anthony Spencer, Manny Lawson, Ikaika Alama-Francis.

Top Draft Prospects: Melvin Ingram, Courtney Upshaw, Ronnell Lewis.

Analysis: Misi can be the starter if that’s what it comes to, but expect the Dolphins to fill this need in free agency, with Spencer and Lawson the two obvious choices. Spencer was Ireland’s first-round pick (26th overall) with Dallas in 2007 and has been a solid starter for the Cowboys for the past three seasons. He also won’t command a top-dollar contract and could give the Dolphins good value at outside linebacker. Lawson has that Bengals connection with Coyle, and has 16 sacks and 87 starts in a six-year NFL career.

One reason the Dolphins are switching to the 4-3 is because the assignments are much easier for the safeties. The Dolphins have two young ones (Reshad Jones, Chris Clemons) and a solid veteran (Tyrone Culver) who are all cheap and have shown promise, so they may not be big players in free agency for a free safety. But Cincinnati’s Reggie Nelson is an obvious target, given that Coyle helped him turn his career around after he flamed out in Jacksonville. Strong safety Yeremiah Bell, set to be 34 years old with a salary cap number of $6.2 million next year, could be in trouble.

It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Sean Smith play some safety next year. If that happens, the Dolphins will need a No. 2 cornerback to pair with Vontae Davis. If Smith remains a boundary corner, the Dolphins still need to sign someone to play the Nickel spot, as Will Allen is a free agent.

Analysis: It wouldn’t shock us to see Jeff Ireland use a first or second-round pick on cornerback — his mentor, Bill Parcells, taught him to value three types of players over all others: Instant impact offensive playmakers, instant impact pass rushers and shutdown cornerbacks. Considering the Dolphins need a Nickel corner and Davis and Smith are both entering the final years of their rookie contracts, Ireland would do well for the Dolphins by drafting another top cornerback in the draft to serve as the No. 3 guy this year and perhaps take over for Smith or Davis in the future.

Otherwise, the most realistic options at Nickel are probably Thomas, who missed the Giants’ Super Bowl season with a torn ACL and likely won’t be re-signed, Allen, who shook off some early rust and had a real nice second half for the Dolphins in 2011, but will also be 34 next year and has a history of knee problems, and “Pacman” Jones, who played decently and was on his best behavior with Coyle and the Bengals last year.

Bringing Nelson in makes a lot of sense, but can the Dolphins afford to spend salary cap dollars on a position where they already have three cheaper (but still productive) options?