PudnerSports.com

Friday, August 4, 2017

The 11 most important positions going into a Major League baseball playoff series are the eight starting position players and the first three starting pitchers. While a deep bench and relief pitching can determine series if these are fairly evenly matched, if the top three starting pitchers throw well they can throw most of the innings in a playoff series facing mainly the eight best starters the opposing team can put on the field while covering all nine positions (obviously AL games have a DH as well, but they have less impact since they cannot take runs away on defense).

The following table compares the two best traditional stats, the Earned Run Average (ERA) for the three pitchers and On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Average for the eight batters (OPS). These are not perfect stats - on-base percentage is almost twice as important as slugging average and both are impacted by ballparks for example - but they represent a great bridge between traditional stats and modern analytics and the purpose of this breakdown is to focus on the players who will play most of the innings in a playoff series.

The league averages as of August 4 were a 4.34 ERA and a .751 OPS. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks are the top four teams in both stats when comparing these 11 players:

Team

8 Pos OPS

Bat

ERA

3 SP

Overall

Nationals

0.878

2

2.71

1

1

Astros

0.885

1

2.90

3

2

Dodgers

0.854

4

2.79

2

3

Diamondbacks

0.871

3

3.02

4

4

Red Sox

0.792

10

3.33

5

5

Brewers

0.800

9

3.56

6

6

Indians

0.837

6

3.97

12

7

Yankees

0.842

5

4.02

13

8

Rays

0.762

15

3.57

7

9

Mariners

0.768

13

3.79

10

10

Cubs

0.790

12

3.88

11

11

Rockies

0.819

7

4.40

17

12

Royals

0.757

16

3.76

9

13

Twins

0.738

18

3.72

8

14

Rangers

0.792

11

4.17

15

15

Orioles

0.816

8

5.07

19

16

Tigers

0.763

14

4.41

18

17

Blue Jays

0.737

19

4.10

14

18

Angels

0.744

17

4.22

16

19

The following is the breakdown of all 11 players for each of the 19 teams with the ERA and OPS of each player.

Saturday, July 15, 2017

Since the creation of Major League Baseball Divisions in 1969, the top two teams combined to win more than 64 percent of their games only five times. The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers current pace puts them in that group:

Year

Team - World Series Res

Won

Lost

top 2 W%

1998

New York Yankees W

114

48

67.90%

1998

Atlanta Braves

106

56

67.90%

2001

Seattle Mariners

116

46

67.28%

2001

Oakland Athletics

102

60

67.28%

1995

Cleveland Indians L

100

44

65.97%

1995

Atlanta Braves W

90

54

65.97%

1970

Baltimore Orioles W

108

54

64.81%

1970

Cincinnati Reds L

102

60

64.81%

1969

Baltimore Orioles L

109

53

64.51%

1969

New York Mets W

100

62

64.51%

2017

Los Angeles Dodgers ?

63

29

64.24%

2017

Houston Astros ?

61

30

64.24%

It was easier to hit that mark prior to expansion, as 28 of 68 seasons featured two teams that combined for a winning percentage of above 64 percent from 1901 to 1968.

Here are the best duos. A "W" indicates the team won the World Series and "L" indicates they lost the World Series, and this was during an era in which the top AL and NL team went straight to the World Series. The only time the top two teams topped a 70 percent winning percentage was in 1909 when the Pirates beat out the Cubs for the NL title and went onto take the World Series.

Friday, June 16, 2017

The following is a comprehensive review of Value Add broken into; 1) SIMPLE. those who just want to look up values of past and future players, 2) UNDERSTAND HOW. those who want to track players, and 3) TECHNICAL. those who want to take a critical review of the technical accuracy of the season.

SIMPLE - Click to find players

A June 2017 update to the www.valueaddbasketball.com
database yielded 61,019 player seasons and 3,706 projections for how good
players will be in the upcoming season.

UNDERSTANDING - 5 Phases of Players' Careers

The process for projecting the Value
Add for all returning players and looking at those who make the NBA is broken
into the following give posts to cover the five potential phases of each player’s
college basketball career:

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points
Each is Worth

TECHNICAL - Are Value Add Basketball Rankings the same as WAR

Value Add is a formula developed to determine how many
points each player is worth to his team – or in other words how many points his
team’s margin of victory or defeat would change if he was replaced by a
standard replacement player. Major media outlets writing about Value Add
Basketball compare it to baseball’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is very
accurate with a few differences:

a. a. Value Add determines how many POINTS per game a
player is worth, rather than WINS. A team with an All-American with a 10.00
Value Add who won a game by six points, would be expected to lose that game by
four points without the All-American and his 10.00 Value Add.

a.The sixth through ninth best player on an
average team would each have a Value Add of between 0.00 and 1.00, so the Value
Add is based on that level of players taking the place of the player in
question.

b.A strong team with better replacements will not
be hurt as much – and the actual impact on their team will be close to the
Value Add of the player in question MINUS the Value Add of the seventh best
player on the team. (e.g. if the seventh best player on the team that lost the
All-American (with a Value Add of 10.00) had a Value Add of 3.00, then the team
would actually be hurt by 7 points a game (10.00 minus 7.00) rather than the
full impact of 10 points the All-American would have on a lesser team.

WAR assumes the player is replaced by a specific
player (e.g. a shortstop is replaced by a shortstop both in the line-up and at
the plate. The lost value actually results from the Domino effect of a series
of players having to handle the ball more (each less efficient than the missing
player due to more defensive attention and less rest in the game).

The third group of players we project are transfers - really a subset of Group 2 Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors, as players who shifted schools and in most case skipped a year. The projected Value Add for the coming season is calculated the same as it is done for Group 2.

Deontae Hawkins improved Boston College by seven points per game when he committed this month, after playing at Illinois State last year. You can search the front slash ( / ) in the notes field to find transfers and their past team (See "Last Played" below for the top 25 transfers this year.

Transfers traditionally sit out a year, but as you can see from Hawkins and the other "2017/" players here and in the database, that requirement is waived more and more for players who have earned a degree at their first school or can make a hardship claim. With hundreds and hundreds of players transferring now to get more playing time or move up to a tournament team, the most important man in basketball is the guy who tracks all their movements ...

... the great Jeff Goodman of ESPN (click here for his transfer list).

The Value Add Basketball Projection page lists projections for all 2018 players, but you can also search "2019" in the year field to find the players who are sitting out a season as a transfer and will next play in 2019. (Return to Main Outline here)

Projecting freshmen takes the least explanation. The top couple of freshmen each year average an 8.00 Value Add or better, and about 465 freshman make a contribution of at least 0.40 points per game above a replacement player. Michael Porter tops the list below, making Missouri 9.00 points better per game for his one year before going onto be a star in the NBA.

Anthony Davis' Value Add of 13.81 points per game as a freshmen makes him the greatest college player during the years in the all-time Value Add Basketball database, going back to the 2001-02 season. In the five years since Davis 2012 campaign, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the only freshman worth more than 10 points per game.

Freshmen are generally overrated - turning the ball over and making defensive mistakes to offset the good plays they make. Porter is one of only 26 freshman that project in the top 300. As usually, that means less than 10 percent of the top players this season are freshmen.

The other bad news for 350 basketball teams is that Kentucky coach John Caliprari hoarded six of those 26 star freshman

Junior College players make their big improvements before stepping on the court of a 4-year college, usually as a junior. They can instantly improve a team because their game is so much more developed than freshman recruits. As soon as Delon Wright and Gary Payton stepped on the court they made Utah and Oregon State, respectively, 10 points better than a replacement player, and 78% of the players who made Brad Winton's JUCORecruiting.com list between 2011 to 2015.

More of these players had not committed to a 4-year college by mid-June, so these players give the last opportunity for teams to dramatically improve before the November tip off.

Nine teams hope Shakur Juiston is like Wright or Payton. The big winner so far is Texas Tech, which signed three JUCOs who together project improving the team by 9.42 points per game over replacement players. Every time a player with a "TBA" (to be determined) school signs, the team's projection for next season will increase by that may points.

The following list projects the Value Add the next season of each of Brad's 100 picks this season, and at the end of this piece is the ranking of Wright, Payton and the next best JUCOs between 2011 and 2015.

Rnk

2018 Projection

Projection

2018 School

Ht

JUCO School

1

Shakur Juiston

6.50

TBD

6'7

F Hutchinson (JUCO 2017)

2

Jeremy Harris

6.00

Buffalo

6'7

SF Gulf Coast State (JUCO 2017)

3

Jordan Brangers

5.50

Texas Tech (Three, 9.42)

6'3

SG South Plains (JUCO 2017)

4

Tony Farmer

5.00

TBD

6'8

F Lee College (JUCO 2017)

5

Antone Warren

4.50

TBD

6'11

C Antelope Valley (CA) (JUCO 2017)

6

Bruce Stevens

4.01

TBD

6'8

PF Jones County (JUCO 2017)

7

DaQuan Jeffries

3.82

Tulsa

6'7

F Western Texas (JUCO 2017)

8

Eden Ewing

3.75

Purdue

6'8

F Tyler (JUCO 2017)

9

Semajae Haynes-Jones

3.59

Wichita St.

6'2

PG Hutchinson (JUCO 2017)

10

Jared Wilson Frame

3.47

Pittsburgh (Two, 5.58)

6'4

G Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)

11

Roderick Williams

3.34

UTEP

6'6

F East LA College (JUCO 2017)

12

Shawn Olden

3.19

TCU (Two, 3.91)

6'3

SG New Mexico (JUCO 2017)

13

Chris Darrington

3.06

TBD

6'3

PG Vincennes (JUCO 2017)

14

D'Angelo Hunter

2.94

West Virginia

6'6

SG Navarro (JUCO 2017)

15

De'Quon Lake

2.82

TBD

6'10

F Iowa Western (JUCO 2017)

16

Jeromy Rodriguez

2.71

TBD

6'8

PF Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)

17

Josh Webster

2.55

Texas Tech

6'5

PG South Plains (JUCO 2017)

18

Corey Davis

2.45

TBD

6'1

PG San Jacinto (JUCO 2017)

19

Kyvon Davenport

2.36

TBD

6'8

PF Georgia Highlands (JUCO 2017)

20

Gabe Grant

2.20

Houston (Two, 2.40)

6'7

SF Three Rivers (JUCO 2017)

21

Troy Simmons

2.11

Pittsburgh

6'4

SG Polk State (JUCO 2017)

22

Kareem Brewton

2.02

TBD

6'2

G Eastern Florida State (JUCO 2017)

23

Daryl Edwards

1.95

TBD

6'4

SG Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)

24

Kwinton Hinson

1.87

Washington St.

6'6

SF Tyler (JUCO 2017)

25

Adrian Hicks

1.74

TBD

6'2

CG Columbia State (JUCO 2017)

26

Amaad Wainright

1.57

North Texas

6'5

Wing Trinity Valley (JUCO 2017)

27

David Simmons

1.51

Middle Tennessee St.

6'4

SF Tallahassee (JUCO 2017)

28

Devin Thomas

1.43

Indiana St.

6'7

PF Mineral Area College (JUCO 2017)

29

Hyron Edwards

1.36

Texas Tech

6'1

PG Trinity Valley (JUCO 2017)

30

Shannon Bogues

1.33

Stephen F Austin

6'3

SG McLennan (JUCO 2017)

31

Jorden Duffy

1.29

TBD

6'3

SG San Jacinto (JUCO 2017)

32

LaDarrius Chester

1.26

TBD

6'2

G Lee College (JUCO 2017)

33

Michael Miller

1.22

TBD

6'3

PG Shawnee (JUCO 2017)

34

Tyree Robinson

1.19

New Mexico St. (Two, 1.82)

6'6

F Odessa (JUCO 2017)

35

Dinero Mercurious

1.15

TBD

6'6

SG Daytona State (JUCO 2017)

36

Adarius Avery

1.14

TBD

6'5

SF Connors State (JUCO 2017)

37

Jason Burnell

1.11

Jacksonville St.

6'7

F St. Petersburg (JUCO 2017)

38

Chris McNeal

1.07

TBD

6'3

PG Indian Hills (JUCO 2017)

39

Davion Cole-Johnson

1.06

TBD

6'4

SG Mississippi Gulf Coast (JUCO 2017)

40

Jalen Perry

1.04

TBD

6'4

Wing John A Logan (JUCO 2017)

41

Zach Copeland

1.00

TBD

6'4

SG San Francisco City (CA) (JUCO 2017)

42

Zac Cuthbertson

1.00

UNC Wilmington (Two, 1.2)

6'7

F Mineral Area (JUCO 2017)

43

Wayne Stewart

0.97

TBD

6'7

SG Lamar (JUCO 2017)

44

Delfincko Bogan

0.95

TBD

5'9

PG Moberly Area (JUCO 2017)

45

Harrison Curry

0.93

TBD

6'7

F Pensacola State (JUCO 2017)

46

Reggie Scurry

0.91

Missouri St.

6'7

F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa (JUCO 2017)

47

Malik Dunbar

0.89

TBD

6'6

SF College of Central Florida (JUCO 2017)

48

Raynere Thornton

0.86

TBD

6'7

F Gordon State (JUCO 2017)

49

Deangelo Isby

0.83

Utah St. (Two, 1.39)

6'5

Wing Wabash Valley (JUCO 2017)

50

Roberto Gallinat

0.81

TBD

6'4

SG South Plains (JUCO 2017)

51

James Batemon

0.79

TBD

6'2

G North Dakota SCS (JUCO 2017)

52

Eric Cobb

0.77

Connecticut

6'10

PF Chipola (JUCO 2017)

53

Tope Arikawe

0.74

TBD

6'8

F/C Panola (JUCO 2017)

54

William Tinsley

0.72

Illinois St.

6'5

SG Lake Land College (JUCO 2017)

55

Andre Pierce

0.72

TCU

6'9

F Lee College (JUCO 2017)

56

Isaiah Bailey

0.71

TBD

6'6

Wing Angelina (JUCO 2017)

57

Dajon Streeter

0.70

TBD

6'4

CG Independence (JUCO 2017)

58

Montell McRae

0.68

TBD

6'9

PF South Plains (JUCO 2017)

59

Jachai Simmons

0.64

New Mexico St.

6'6

Wing Midland (JUCO 2017)

60

Cam Reedus

0.62

Arkansas Little Rock

6'2

PG Three Rivers (JUCO 2017)

61

Eric McGill

0.60

TBD

6'3

SG Panola (JUCO 2017)

62

Dwayne Brown

0.56

Utah St.

6'6

F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa (JUCO 2017)

63

Ndene Gueye

0.53

St. Bonaventure

6'10

F/C Kilgore (JUCO 2017)

64

Shawntez Davis

0.50

Nevada

6'8

PF South Plains (JUCO 2017)

65

Ty Lazenby

0.46

TBD

6'5

Wing NOC - Enid (JUCO 2017)

66

Leroy Buchanan

0.43

Murray St.

6'5

Wing Northeast Mississippi (JUCO 2017)

67

DaJion Henderson

0.39

Tennessee St.

6'7

F Compton College (CA) (JUCO 2017)

68

Jordan Taylor

0.34

TBD

6'5

SG Coffeyville (JUCO 2017)

69

Raquan Mitchell

0.31

Colorado St.

6'2

SG South Plains (JUCO 2017)

70

Brady Ernst

0.28

Xavier

6'10

F/C Indian Hills (JUCO 2017)

71

Eddie Reese

0.26

TBD

6'1

CG Northwest Kansas Tech (JUCO 2017)

72

Malik Petteway

0.22

TBD

6'8

PF Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)

73

Roosevelt Smart

0.20

Arkansas St.

6'4

G New Mexico (JUCO 2017)

74

Kani Coles

0.20

Central Florida

6'8

F Pensacola State (JUCO 2017)

75

Josh Stamps

0.20

Florida International

6'5

SG Trinity Valley (JUCO 2017)

76

Paul Turner

0.20

Green Bay

6'5

Wing College of Central Florida (JUCO 2017)

77

Breaon Brady

0.20

Houston

6'9

F Saddleback College (CA) (JUCO 2017)

78

Jaqwan McCauley

0.20

Morehead St.

6'6

Wing Tyler (JUCO 2017)

79

Brandon Key

0.20

South Dakota St.

5'10

PG Southwest Tennessee (JUCO 2017)

80

Jamil Jackson

0.20

Southern Utah

6'6

Wing Williston State (JUCO 2017)

81

Davion Turner

0.20

Texas Arlington

6'8

F Hill (JUCO 2017)

82

Josh Boutte

0.20

UNC Wilmington

6'6

F Dodge City (JUCO 2017)

83

Ben Nakwaasah

0.20

Utah Valley

6'1

G Jacksonville (JUCO 2017)

84

James Harrison

0.20

TBD

6'7

PF Blinn (JUCO 2017)

85

Marlon Hunter

0.20

TBD

6'5

Wing Odessa (JUCO 2017)

86

Vance Johnson

0.20

TBD

6'9

PF Northeast (JUCO 2017)

87

Deante Strickland

0.20

TBD

5'10

PG Casper (JUCO 2017)

88

Diontae Champion

0.20

TBD

6'6

Wing North Platte (JUCO 2017)

89

Boaz Williams

0.20

TBD

6'7

PF Collin County (JUCO 2017)

90

Jonathan Sanks

0.20

TBD

6'4

SG Spartanburg Methodist (JUCO 2017)

91

Dani Koljanin

0.20

TBD

6'7

F Monroe College (JUCO 2017)

92

Anthony Adger

0.20

TBD

6'1

PG Spartanburg Methodist (JUCO 2017)

93

Ricky Dunnaway

0.20

TBD

6'8

F Walters State (JUCO 2017)

94

Deishuan Booker

0.20

TBD

6'3

PG College of Southern Idaho (JUCO 2017)

95

Dante Sterling

0.20

TBD

6'6

Wing Northwest Mississippi (JUCO 2017)

96

Deion James

0.20

TBD

6'8

F Pima CC (D2) (JUCO 2017)

97

Anthony Smith

0.20

TBD

6'6

F Feather River (CA) (JUCO 2017)

98

Roderick Sikes

0.20

TBD

6'1

G Southwest Mississippi (JUCO 2017)

99

Dante Thorpe

0.20

TBD

6'4

Wing Triton (D2) (JUCO 2017)

100

Travis Weatherington

0.20

TBD

6'3

SG Palm Beach State (JUCO 2017)

Top Impact JUCO Players from 2011-2015

JUCOs Wright, Payton and Jae Crowder (12.43) improve their college teams by more than 10 points, while no other JUCO was worth more than eight points per game over a replacement player (Value Add). Crowder was a JUCO in 2010, the year before the five years covered below. This table shows only the first year each player went to a four-year college (Wright was even better his Senior season). Their final year at the JUCO level is listed, and most players values are from the following year at the 4-year college, but some were two or even three seasons later.

About Me

I am the oldest of nine children with nine children of my own. As much as I love sports (Marquette, Auburn, NY Jets and Islanders and Houston Astros) and politics, my family and my faith (Catholic) are the most important things to me. For most of my life, I really enjoyed running and winning political campaigns. Until I turned 50 I would still pull some all nighters as election day approached, but decided when Dave Brat defeated Eric Cantor that would be my last Election Day All-Nighter. Marquette taught me to work hard - I had 18 credits and three jobs totally 60 hours a week my last 3 semesters (intern with US Senator, sports desk of Milwaukee Journal and news editor at Marquette Tribune) and I've never slowed down. I love living in Auburn (top place to live in US by some accounts) and family in Virginia, but also love to get to upstate New York with my Dad's side of the family, and truly love to get back to Milwaukee, and have adopted Cleveland as another city I love.
Approaching 50 I decided to give up campaigns and serve as ED of www.takeback.org, which has given me the wonderful chance to built State Chapters throughout the US.