I'd say they've been playing it pretty safe. The only risk they've taken is Iron Man 1 I'd say. They risked their entire lively hood on that movie, on the shoulders of Kevin Feige's idea which was a gigantic risk. But once that successful there was no more risk, they and everyone knew they could do whatever they wanted and people would go see it. Even the terrible Iron Man 2 and 3 made butt loads of money. They're playing it safe because absolutely nothing of consequence happens in any of these movies. It's like a sitcom. Something bad happens but by the end everything is back to normal. Now in most movies that is absolutely fine but because this is a huge shared universe, there needs to be some type of consequence.

What is this, revisionist history....?

"once that successful there was no more risk, they and everyone knew they could do whatever they wanted and people would go see it..." What, like TIH which fell immediately after IM1, and proved to be so ill-received that the studio fired the entire cast and crew and tried to sweep it under the rug? Nor did Thor or CATFA generate enough box office to compete seriously with Batman, Iron Man, Spidey, Superman, Wolverine and the X-Men, or even frickin' Incredibles or Hancock.

The simple truth is the same in 2013 that it was in 2008, and has yet to be disproven: Marvel Studios rides on the shoulders of Tony Stark, and probably Robert Downey Jr. specifically. No other Marvel Studios franchise has proven itself yet. (Hopefully that changes soon, beginning with The Dark World in November. But for now, it's still a gamble.)

And I fail to understand why you're concocting a myth out of sheer thin air that a cinematic universe needs to "have something bad happen." Do you think nothing "bad" has happened in the MCU? Thousands killed in the Battle of New York. Thor destroying the Bifrost Bridge, launching dozens of worlds into interstellar war and destroying the balance of power in the multiverse. The consequences of The Avengers and Thor are far, *far* more far-reaching than anything Fox, Sony, or Warners have done to their superhero universes. We're seeing the first waves of those consequences right here in Phase II of the MCU.