"The Nazi movement was not a uniquely German event; it is a uniquely human event. And such a dark movement remains in our hardened hearts to this day. When human beings, for whatever reason and rationale, decide that it is necessary and expedient to cast aside their moral principles and their conscience, and in the pain of their humanity make themselves into beasts, then the will to power and its madness is unleashed upon them. No one, no people, is safe from this awful tragedy." Jesse

22 July 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Grinding Slowly

"But seeking to justify himself, the scholar of the word and the law asked Jesus, 'And who is my neighbor?'"

Luke 10:29

The modern gospel of personal prosperity and selective privilege, exceptionalism by whatever criteria a group may choose to exclude and oppress the other, although it has appeared throughout history many times and in many forms, may be one of the worst and most insidious sins against the Spirit.

"But I just want to be left alone!" Truly, if you choose to live as this, you will be excluded and left alone, for all time.

August may be a big month for the metals, and we could see a taste of things to come next week with a Comex PM option expiry and an FOMC decision.

The Fed is either going to raise rates next week, or after the November elections. They really would like to raise at least an additional 25 basis points, but may not have adequate cover from the economic results to do so. And few expect them to raise more than one more time this year, so it would be a bit of a giveaway if they did now.

As you know, the Fed's interest rate 'policy' at this point has more to do with their own policy implementation mechanics, and much less than with the real economy, which quite frankly they have been neglecting for a the past couple of decades. They are mesmerized and captured by 'the system.'

Obama's remarks today in his joint news conference with the Mexico President Enrique Peña Nieto were a magnificent example of the credibility gap in action. President Obama waxed poetic about how great things are, and what a boon to the economy that NAFTA has been, and that the TTP will be.

The irony is that the Democrats may enable the presidency of Donald Trump by nominating one of the weakest candidates possible to run against his anti-establishment sentiment. For Hillary, whatever else she might be, is the poster child for crony capitalism.

Several have been coaxing me to give an impression of where I think gold might go over the next four weeks or so. This is a mug's game really, because even if one gets it directionally correct, the magnitude and the timing of such short term moves is almost impossible to forecast more than a few days out. And then there are the absolutely unpredictable exogenous events that can move markets dramatically.

But in general, I think gold will end the year higher than where it is today, barring unforeseen events, and possibly much higher. It really depends on if and when it can break out of its current ranging trend.

To say how it gets there is quite a task, but down, up, down, up, down, and up, up, and away are not a bad for an educated guess. The timing on this is really beyond mortal knowledge, but many will make up for it by predicting a break out every week, and count it as a score when they are finally right.

I think we will see a lot of chop and 'shenanigans' as the bullion banks and their monetary masters struggle to manage the leveraged paper against a shrinking pool of physical bullion. When the tipping point comes in this is hard to predict with any accuracy, but when it comes you will know it.

Le Propriétaire

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Need Little - Want Less - Love More

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.

"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God. Thereafter, any attack even on the least of men is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind." Dietrich Bonhoeffer

LET US COMMEND OUR PAST TO HIS ABUNDANT FORGIVENESS, AND TRUST OUR FUTURE TO HIS KINDNESS AND TENDER MERCY. LET US PERMIT OURSELVES TO BE FASHIONED ACCORDING TO HIS WILL, NOT FOR HIS SAKE, BUT FOR OURS. REMEMBER TO FEED THE LEAST OF HIS CREATURES, THE BIRDS AND ANIMALS. AND THE HEARTS OF THOSE YOU MEET, WITH A KIND WORD AND A SMILE.

"A credibility trap is when the managerial functions of a society have been sufficiently compromised by corruption so that the leadership cannot reform, or even honestly address, the problems of that system without implicating a broad swath of the powerful, including themselves.

The moneyed interests and their aspirants tolerate the corruption because they have profited from it, and would like to continue to do so. Discipline is maintained by various forms of soft financial rewards and career and social coercion."

These are personal observations about the economy and the markets. In providing information, I hope this allows you to make your own decisions in an informed manner, even if it is from learning by my mistakes, which are many. As a standing policy I never provide individual investment advice to anyone. I will only occasionally disclose my personal positions for purposes of illustration. Understand that my own circumstances could differ greatly from your own, and therefore what is suitable for me may not be suitable for you. My comments are intended to be reflection on general macro financial and economic events and trends.