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Top 10 MLB pitchers who could have breakout seasons

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman follows through on a pitch to the Tampa Bay Rays during the third inning of a spring training baseball game, Sunday, March 5, 2017, in Dunedin, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Every single manager heads to their respective springtime outpost in either Florida or Arizona each year with fingers crossed and an unofficial list of breakout candidates dancing in their heads.

There’s one reason: Because breakout performances are the biggest reason a team’s fortunes can change in a matter of months.

They can take a franchise with outside-looking-in expectations in April and turn them into a surprise contender by July.

Show us a World Series winner and we’ll show you breakout performances and career years helping them get there.

Here’s a group of 10 pitchers who could enjoy breakout seasons in 2017:

10. RHP Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles

The fourth pick in the 2011 draft out of the Oklahoma high school ranks, Bundy was expected to be the next big thing. But pitchers break and Bundy did just that, undergoing Tommy John in June of 2013, which sent him on an injury-filled, two-year journey. Last year, however, Bundy was a factor in the starting rotation by the end of the season, finishing with a 4.02 ERA in 109.2 innings. He’s primed to take another step if his health allows it.

9. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox

The arm the Sox acquired at the 2014 trade deadline in exchange for Andrew Miller, a whole lot of buzz surrounded Rodriguez at this time last year, but a knee injury set him back and essentially ruined the first half of his season. His ERA before the all-star break? A ghastly 8.59. But post-break, however, the soon-to-be 24-year-old held opposing hitters to a paltry .207 average. Rodriguez could be counted on even more now with David Price’s health in question.

8. LHP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

A highly-regarded prospect coming into last year, Snell didn’t disappoint in his age-23 season, spinning 89 innings for the Rays, resulting in a 3.54 ERA. While it was far from perfect — Snell walked 5.16 batters per nine — the gangly 6-foot-4 southpaw struck out 24.4% of the men he faced. He’s on track to be an ace as soon as he can rein in the free passes.

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7. LHP Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants

Moore is a perfect example of how finicky pitchers can be. In 2013, Moore went 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA for the Rays, setting himself up for what was expected to be a a long run of sustained success. Then Moore broke, succumbing to TJ surgery on his left elbow not long after. Traded to the Giants last year at the deadline, Moore is in the perfect spot — a pitcher’s park with zero pressure in a veteran rotation — to finally get back to his previous career arc.

6. LHP Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics

This is the prospect the Royals were forced to ship to the West Coast in order to acquire Ben Zobrist and seal up a World Series ring in 2015. The 6-foot-5 lefty just started scratching the surface of what he’s capable of last season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 144.2 innings in his first taste of the Major Leagues. He’s got a friendly home ballpark to help him out, as long as he can solve his problems against right-handers, who launched 17 homers off him last year.

5. RHP Robert Gsellman, New York Mets

No one outside of Queens and maybe his hometown of Santa Monica, Calif., knew who Gsellman was a year ago. As a 13th-round draft pick in 2011, he was just another minor league arm with OK stuff. Then the velocity ticked up a notch — he averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball in a highly successful 44.2-inning big league stint late last year — and, thanks to his flowing locks, he’s now being compared to another recent out-of-nowhere story the Mets produced in Jacob deGrom.

4. RHP Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Instead of stepping into the role of ace as he had hoped, it was his (former?) pal Aaron Sanchez taking up that mantle last year, while Stroman filled the role of mid-rotation starter who flashes more. After a troubling two-month start, the undersized righty turned it on, making more guys swing and miss and eventually accumulating 3.6 wins above replacement (WAR). His elite ground ball rate (60.1%) gives him a nice floor, but missing even more bats is next on the agenda.

3. LHP Daniel Norris, Detroit Tigers

This list wasn’t supposed to become six degrees of Price separation, but the key piece in the deal that brought the lefty to Toronto for a brief period of time is on the verge of paying dividends on the other side of the trade. Norris’ tantalizing four-pitch mix started actualizing last season, as 23-year-old was finally healthy and finished out the season with a 3.04 ERA in 56.1 innings down the stretch.

2. RHP Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

According to FanGraphs, only 44 pitchers have thrown at least 250 innings over the last two years and had hitters swing and miss at more than 10% of their pitches. Walker is one of them. The stuff is there, but command has set him back, in addition to a foot injury that needed off-season surgery. Traded to the desert from Seattle in the off-season, the ballpark isn’t a great fit but the NL West is pitcher-friendly, overall. There’s absolutely ace potential here.

1. LHP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

Originally drafted 37th overall by the Jays in 2009, Paxton has taken a winding road to potential acedom, flashing his extreme talent at times, but more often than not ended up either hurt or ineffective. Until last season. After some mechanical adjustments, Paxton was suddenly throwing harder and with more command than he had in … well … ever. His velocity surged to 96.8 mph and he walked just 10 batters in his final 72.2 innings. Everyone will be watching to see if the 28-year-old can carry that success over to 2017. If he can, the sky is the limit.