Challenger for Nickels?

David Brewster writes on Crosscut that developer Greg Smith is considering running against the two-term incumbent in 2009.

A political consultant close to Smith explained that the developer has grown increasingly frustrated about the lack of progress on the Alaskan Way Viaduct, an issue over which Nickels has been locked in disputes with Gov. Chris Gregoire and state House Speaker Frank Chopp. Another possible cause of friction is the mayor’s stand on preserving industrial zoning in areas south of downtown, where developers like Smith, CEO of Urban Visions, would like to build more housing and commercial space for new economy startups.

This consultant released an Oct. 7 poll, conducted by Constituent Dynamics, a Seattle polling company, that was apparently commissioned by Smith. It shows Nickels’ vulnerability, despite his powerful allies and entrenched political coalition. On the question of approve/disapprove of the way Nickels is handling his job, the split was 31-56. (That rating is up slightly from August, and down slightly from last year.) A somewhat loaded question, designed to bring out resistance to a third term, asked the 1,002 voters if they would “vote to re-elect Greg Nickels to a third term?” The poll was 26 percent in favor of Nickels and 53 percent in favor of an unspecified “another candidate.”

The poll also did some head-to-head contests, with these results: former City Council member Peter Steinbrueck bested Nickels, 39-26, and Councilmember Nick Licata outpolled the mayor, 35-28. Nickels was favored over council President Richard Conlin, 32-25; over Councilmember Sally Clark, 29-25; and over 2001 mayoral finalist Mark Sidran, 32-30. None of these candidates seems likely to run. Conlin says he’ll make up his mind in early December and that right now he’s feeling “really productive on the council.”

Nickels didn’t face a serious challenge in 2005 and political observers have been speculating for months whether a big name would take him on next year. If further polling suggests that Nickels is vulnerable a more high-profile candidate than Smith may emerge.