Local scientists estimate that Gulf oil spill costs could top $1 billion

2.6 million gallons of oil already flooding gulf

CORPUS CHRISTI - South Texas is lending its scientific know how to aid in mitigating the environmental and economic impacts of an offshore well spewing crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently it does not appear that the Texas coast and western Gulf of Mexico will be affected seriously by the oil from the spill, but local scientists are watching and offering whatever help is needed.

The Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi has been in regular contact with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration since the April 20 offshore rig explosion and subsequent spill which already has dumped an estimated 2.6 million gallons of oil into the gulf.

The research institute and its socioeconomics expert David Yoskowitz have done preliminary estimates of potential wetlands damage and losses to fisheries and ecosystems, among other issues, institute Executive Director Larry McKinney said.

Until the flow of oil is stopped, no one is sure what the losses will be, but Yoskowitz indicates that the economic impact could top more than $1 billion, counting mitigation and ecosystem costs, losses to tourism and commercial and recreational fishing, according to the two-page report.

The research institute may be called for further help with damage assessments and recovery efforts, McKinney said.

The University of Texas Marine Science Institute at Port Aransas also has been in touch with state and federal environmental authorities offering help in Texas' response should it become necessary, said Lee Fuiman, director of the Marine Science Institute.

"We have offered our scientific expertise to assist in those areas that are being impacted now," Fuiman said.

Mission-Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve, headquartered in Port Aransas, is working with NOAA on the oil spill response. Reserve manager Sally Morehead and research coordinator Ed Buskey have been talking with NOAA officials and staff of other reserves in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, Fuiman said.

On Sunday, federal authorities shut down fishing in federal waters in the Gulf from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle for the next 10 days as a precautionary measure, and further impacts are possible as the scope of the spill is better understood.

"The stakes are huge for the thousands of commercial fishermen, recreational guides and members of the tourism industry dependent on these wetlands," according to the Harte Research Institute study. "This is saying nothing about the people dependent on them, like fish and oyster processing houses, hotels, boat dealers, etc."

Morgan Street Seafood Market owner Charlie Alegria said everyone in the industry is taking a wait-and-see approach. But the price of crabs went up 12 percent Friday and oysters are impossible to find. The cost of shrimp also is likely to go up because shrimping has been shut down as part of the 10 -day fishing ban and Texas shrimpers will be called upon to make up as much of the difference as possible, he said.

"The distributors, everyone is concerned," Alegria said. "We are hoping and praying the spill can be stopped as soon as possible so the northern Gulf Coast can go back to work. If they don't, as far as supply and demand go, we will get hit with a demand for our product and shrimp that normally would stay here locally, would get shipped out at a much higher price."

Customers such as restaurants are buying up seafood at four times the normal rate, fearful that supplies will be cut off, according to an e-mail from Sysco, a supplier to Water Street Seafood restaurants owner Brad Lomax. Suppliers are urging customers to remain calm, because such a run on seafood is driving up costs.

Shrimp populations in the gulf are expected to move as oil approaches so the catch should not be hurt. Because the oil problems currently are on the east side of the Mississippi River and the largest amount of shrimp are harvested on the west side and in Texas, that also is a help.

Suppliers said customers should expect 30 percent fewer oysters in the market, which already are in short supply.

"I think this is going to impact supply for sure," Lomax said. "Oysters are already scarce because (Hurricane) Ike did significant damage to Texas oyster beds back a year and a half ago. We have been sourcing the majority of oysters from Mississippi and Louisiana and that's going to be gone. Everything in the pipeline now is safe but nobody is making any predictions."

Lomax said he does not have any plans to raise prices in the near term, but he is waiting to see how the situation shakes out over the next month before making further predictions.

"We will see what supplies, prices and sources are at the beginning of the summer," he said.