By Tiernan Ray

Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek was on BloombergTV a short while ago talking with Emily Chang about Apple (AAPL) and BlackBerry (BBRY), both of which he formally covers for the firm.

Misek, who has a Hold rating on Apple shares, was asked about the likelihood of an iPhone 5S by June, and said it is “Not going to happen,” but instead will come by September:

It typically takes 60 to 90 days of production before the phone is introduced to retail. If we assume production starts in June, the soonest it would be available is late august or early September. That’s based on 400-plus suppliers we track.

Asked about what it will be like, Misek opined,

We expect the 5S to be broadly similar to the 5, perhaps with fingerprint sensor capabilities added. There’s still a chance it could come in multiple colors. It’s a virtual lock that you will get better processors and a 12 megapixel camera. The changes will be largely under the hood, as they were with the 4S.

Asked about how the 5S will fare relative to Samsung Electronics‘s (005930KS) Galaxy S4, Misek opined the 5S won’t stop Samsung’s lead, and that its market share in the U.S. is vulnerable further out to consumer demands for a larger screen:

The S4 is a five-inch-screen product, so, broadly speaking, the two don’t really compete. We think Samsung will take significant market share this year. Here in the U.S., Apple will continue to garner great market share. The pressure for a larger-screen phone will continue to mount. Based on our supply chain work and our research on Apple’s technology, we don’t think they can produce a larger screen iPhone till the middle of next year at the earlier.

Misek was alluding to manufacturing issues that he believe face Apple’s “in-cell” display technology, as opposed to the “AMOLED” technology used by Samsung, which may constrain Apple’s display size. However, he did not elaborate on the matter in the discussion.

Misek also remarked on rumors of a lower-cost iPhone, which he believes will come to market. The device will have a 4-inch screen, and the main cost savings will probably come from reduced sophistication of components, he thinks, such as lower NAND memory count, a lower-grade processor. He expects the phone will come to China Mobile (CHL) and other overseas markets.

Turning to BlackBerry, Misek, who has a Buy rating on the shares and a $22 price target, and who is in Orlando, Florida this week for the company’s BlackBerry Live user conference, was asked by Chang if he had given up on the company’s ability to get developers to write for its BB10 operating system:

No, not at all. Interestingly enough, there will be thousands of developers here in Orlando, and we look forward to talking with all of them. What we’re hearing and seeing, is, if you’re developing for Google Play [Google‘s (GOOG) application store for Android], porting to BB10 is ridiculously easy. Android and BB10 share a common kernel. That allows software programs to move across from the two stores easily. So while we don’t hear of a lot about native development, we do hear about a lot of porting of apps. And even though people say you can’t get Netflix (NFLX) on BB10, we’ve actually seen Netflix running on BB10. All of the Google top 100 apps are running on BB10.

Shares of Apple are up $3.07, or 0.7%, at $456, while shares of BlackBerry are up 43 cents, or 2.7%, at $15.97.

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There are 21 comments

MAY 13, 2013 1:41 P.M.

freddysrevng wrote:

Follow Misek.. he is the only analyst covering BlackBerry that is doing any kind of "credible work and due diligence"... that is why, ladies and gentlemen, BBRY is going up.... if the basher/liar analysts were right on BBRY we would be going down..

BTW, I have "ported" all kinds of Android apps to my BlackBerry Z10 and it is getting "easier" all the time through Google Chrome.

Also, Misek will "keep it real" with regards to AAPL "Vaporware Reportings"... people have been losing a lot of money on those types of lies since $705..... imminent iTV and Dick Tracey watches to name a couple.

I have always said that they should save the paint it will require to badge the new iPhone iPhone 5s - because it will be so comparable to iPhone 5 - save the paint and the carbon footprint...

Any questions?

Q 10

MAY 13, 2013 1:45 P.M.

Javier ENrique wrote:

The last sentence should en with "are running on BB10" Right?

MAY 13, 2013 1:47 P.M.

Tiernan Ray wrote:

Javier Enrique: Indeed, it should have said BB10. My apologies, and thank you for pointing out the error.

MAY 13, 2013 1:57 P.M.

Jjk wrote:

Why does Apple bother to remain silent on it's future product plans when you have experts like Misek announcing their product details months ahead of time? Interesting that he has has a hold on the stock when a buy might have helped his forms clients ESP when Apple hit 385. I guess he just dismisses the fact of Apple becoming the biggest buy side competitor for it 's own shares as irrelevant. he doesn't elaborate on the in cell problems Apple is having increasing the screen size by an inch but this begs the question about how Apple is able to produce so many much larger IPad 4's with similar resolution? I think he is stuck selling his BBRY buy. Good luck with that as a long term competitor

MAY 13, 2013 2:12 P.M.

YouThatsRight wrote:

Looks like Misek has done his homework well, one of few analysts who nderstands Blackberry right now.

MAY 13, 2013 2:24 P.M.

getaneditor wrote:

"here in Orland"

Orland?

MAY 13, 2013 2:25 P.M.

Cornwallis wrote:

Apple has fully returned to the Steve Jobs era of utmost secrecy before launch. Nobody knows of what Apple is going to release. This time there is no drunk Apple employee leaving prototype iPhone 4 at some obscure bar. With Tim Cook, the veil over the new Apple releases are all wearing the magical mantle of invisibility. Granted, Tim Cook is not a designer Steve Jobs was, but anyone knows if Tim Cook is totally hands off on the final say on Apple product designs? Tim Cook must have the final say and signs off on final designs. What are they? What kinds of cool stuff is Apple releasing? Steve Jobs had a habit of rubbing analysts into the dirt, Misek among them. Now it's Tim Cook's turn to run them in.

Benediton and Mitch are the same person screwing each other, it's called iScrewing.

MAY 13, 2013 5:37 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

I figured out what Apple is working on, it's a car that runs off of human gas. It's called iGas!

MAY 13, 2013 5:48 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

So when is barrons is gonna make a app for android or bb10? That's right, they're a cheap independent company promoted by apple.

MAY 13, 2013 5:51 P.M.

Seriously? wrote:

"Android and BB10 share a common kernel."

No they don't.

MAY 13, 2013 6:23 P.M.

lyle wrote:

You know what u with. Apple you make applesauce

MAY 13, 2013 8:49 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Do any of you have BBRY shares? IF so, how many?

MAY 13, 2013 11:28 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

BlackBerry was in front on Smart phones.
It then went to the back unexpectedly.
Now it wants to come back to the front.
It is not impossible BUT it's pretty near it.

MAY 14, 2013 6:23 A.M.

John Rather wrote:

Apple is no competition for Blackberry or Android. Mainly because iOS is over rated running on it's legacy MFS based HFS+ and being locked into always being "Backwards Compatible" to it's Mac based roots. Instead of moving forward to it's BSD based NeXTStep OS graphical interface. Apple's Archilles Heel is and has always been it's reliance on a file system, that in Linus Torvalds's words.... "Complete and Utter Crap"!

The only thing they've added to the root file system is "Preemptive Task Management" and I bet that sounds so Magical and Revolutionary still to Apple fans who don't even know what it is or why they have to still use it. Literally it means after they added the Plus sign, that it could suspend one Task while it runs one that more important. Simply stated.... iOS (and OS X) can't get out of it's own way to perform multitasking. That both Blackberry and Android take for granted. If you can't multitask at the system level, it reveals the fact that you were never able to run IBM's "Pervasive Multithreading" throughout the OS on a largely still antiquated single threaded file system.

The only way Apple was able to get around that major inadequacy was having Dominic Giampaolo of BeOS BFS file system fame, write a virtual sub file system called HFSX. Along with his Spotlight Search only covering files stored in his virtual sub file system. Yet... HFSX is in no way related to HFS+, though it runs on top of it instead. Which leads to a major performance hit and limited use today, as well as still having to be maintained, unlike his original BFS.

Obviously this is why they can't run real time multiple Live desktop .WGT's (widgets/Apps) and why iOS is only perceived as faster than these other operating systems running multiple Apps, Tasks and Widgets. While iOS is only running ONE.... AT..... A.... TIME!

This all goes back to Steve's denial of licensing Sun's ZFS. When Scott was already preparing both OS X and iOS (in development) for the file system swap. But when the Sun CEO announced Apple was licensing ZFS, Steve's ego got the best of him, because they couldn't take credit for writing it. Now it's use by Apple as a HFS+ replacement is lost and the only thing they can do is run it as another file system layered on top of HFS+ like Microsoft was going to do with WinFS (also based on BeOS BFS)!

Apparently Misek knows some of this stuff and sees Apple flopping like a fish out of water, hoping Sir Jony Ive "invented everything" and Steve just took the credit can polish their dying iOS reputation as a superior operating system, that it simply isn't. It's all smoke and mirrors covered up by more smoke and mirrors and it's already been proved that iOS is far more vulnerable to hacking than either Android or BB 10!!! ....so knowing the truth about Sir Jony Ive (invented everything)'s penchant for looks over substance, the new iOS version will only look different. Apple will again opt for Backwards Compatibility to it's former iOS and Mac OS X based 70's Single Threaded Legacy underneath it all and let 3rd party Devs run App slowing multitasking within their Apps! ;-P

MAY 14, 2013 12:01 P.M.

@ John Rather wrote:

Snore.

Zzzzz. Z. Z. Z. Zzz. Z zzzzzz

MAY 14, 2013 1:00 P.M.

Uh Dude wrote:

@freddysrevng: BBRY has flatlined... its been at around $15/share for a year now. Looking at their 5-year it seems like they've died.

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.