Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Natural Gas: "Medium-term Outlook for Gas is Good After Doldrums"

From Oxford Analytica via Research Recap:

While the gas market may be in the doldrums now, its medium-term prospects remain good as environmental policies favor further coal-to-gas switching in both developed and developing countries, according to Oxford Analytica. Security of supply concerns should also guarantee further expansion in LNG import capacity across a more diverse range of countries, a process boosted by the current low-price environment, OxAn says in Medium-term prospects are good for gas.

Demand for gas looks unlikely to recover until 2010, when cuts in supply and an expected bottoming out or recovery in industrial and power consumption bring the market back into balance from the supply glut it is currently experiencing.

However, in the long term, cheap gas prices will boost the attractiveness of gas relative to other fuels:

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia over gas supplies have heightened Central and East European countries’ awareness of the need for alternative gas import options and this is likely to result in new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals for a region that currently has no LNG import facilities....MORE

Keep an eye on the LNG biz, it will offer a lot of clues to producers expectations.