Is Forsberg worth it?

Eight months ago, Bryan Murray wanted an old Ford truck with
a lot of mileage. Now he wants what looks like a banged-up Volvo.

Eight months ago, Bryan Murray wanted an old Ford truck with a lot of mileage. Now he wants what looks like a banged-up Volvo.

When he was coaching the Ottawa Senators last winter, Murray urged then-general manager John Muckler to make his team grittier by acquiring Gary Roberts at the trade deadline. For whatever reason (Muckler has said that Roberts' old team, the Florida Panthers, called him at the last moment, demanding he agree to a trade for the forward immediately without giving him time to deliberate), it didn't happen.

Were the Robertless Senators worse off as a result, riding into the Stanley Cup final against the big and speedy Anaheim Ducks, without the player regarded by Senators fans as the messiah?

Roberts, who was about a month short of turning 41 when his new team, the Pittsburgh Penguins, met Ottawa in the first round of the playoffs in April, sure didn't look as robust near the end of that five-game quarterfinal as he did in the first couple of games. He was bagged and looked ready for a summer break. So three more rounds would not have been easy on him. And when they would have needed him most -- in the Cup final -- Roberts wouldn't have made a difference because the Ducks were just too strong.

Murray, elevated to general manager last summer, now holds the dice, and he seems ready to roll them in the hope of snagging that walking medical encyclopedia known as Peter Forsberg. Arguably the best Swede to ever play in the NHL, Forsberg is still considered a superstar despite his ailments and is expected to return soon, probably around the end of November, after recuperating from foot and groin surgery. Apparently, the free-agent centre is high on the Senators.

There are a few things in the way, though. Forsberg, 34, is looking at other teams, too, and has a ton of affinity for his old club, the Colorado Avalanche, which he joined as a rookie when the franchise was still the Quebec Nordiques. He won the Stanley Cup twice as a member of the Avalanche, and while a third championship with Colorado would be a nifty homecoming gift, he's not going to win it with that team this season. Colorado hardly looks like the club to beat in 2007-08. The Senators, on the other hand, do, so who Forsberg should sign with looks pretty clear from here.

But it may be all pie-in-the-sky for Murray and the Senators. Reports suggest that Forsberg is looking for a three-year deal worth $5 million U.S. a season, while Murray is looking at a one-year deal worth $3 million.

Even if Murray and Senators owner Eugene Melnyk were willing to break the bank to get Forsberg, they can't right now because the Senators are very close to hitting the NHL salary cap of $50.3 million. The Senators are less than $2 million from exceeding it, so a trade -- involving either Senators goalie (yes, either goalie because Martin Gerber has taken some of the shine off Ray Emery) or perhaps defenceman Wade Redden if he was to agree to waive his no-trade clause -- would have to be under consideration to free up money. Being able to trade Redden and his $6.5-million salary would give the Senators the most cash and leave some in the kitty for the trade deadline or in case of injuries. But then Ottawa would be left with a huge hole on defence, no matter what the Redden critics say.

Even if the Senators can get their money woes ironed out to be able to make an attractive offer to Forsberg, how much is the club really going to gamble on him, given his injuries? They've been extensive, though the fact that he keeps coming back and leading his team shows how resilient he really is. He has had groin, ankle, foot, wrist, shoulder, hip and back problems over his 12 NHL seasons, including several concussions going back to his days in Sweden. He had his spleen removed following a playoff game in May 2001, and though it looked as if he was going to return halfway through the next season, an ankle injury during a practice in January 2002 put him on the shelf for good without having played a game. Groin and hip injuries in 2003-04 sidelined him for more than half of that season. He continued to have injury problems after he was signed as a free agent by the Philadelphia Flyers for 2005-05, although he did play 60 games in the regular season and six in the playoffs. Last season, Forsberg played 57 games during the regular season as a member of the Flyers and then the Nashville Predators, who picked him up at the trade deadline. He also played in Nashville's five playoff games.

He has averaged well over a point in 697 regular-season games and 63 playoff games. He has also amassed 678 penalty minutes during the regular season and 149 during the playoffs.

Besides the two Cup championships with Colorado, Forsberg was on Sweden's gold-medal winning team at the 2006 Turin Games, was awarded the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie for 1994-95, and in 2002-03 won both the Art Ross Trophy as the league's top scorer and the Hart Trophy as the most valuable player. Forsberg has played in five NHL All-Star Games, and was named to the NHL's first all-star team for 1997-98, 1998-99 and 2002-03.

So how much is this guy worth? A one-year contract for around $3 million? Three years at $5 million a season?

What Murray is apparently willing to offer seems reasonable, especially as the Senators are close to the cap, would likely be forced into a major trade to afford him and, in the meantime, still have to worry about signing Jason Spezza to a new long-term deal worth millions.

Can the Senators actually find the bigger money that Forsberg wants and also afford to give him a long-term deal? It doesn't look like it. And given that he is injury-prone, it could all very well turn out to be a be colossal waste of money, unless, of course, he helps the Senators win the Stanley Cup this season before his ailments start kicking in again.

On that thought, maybe Murray should sweeten the pie if Forsberg isn't biting. Assuming his contract would be pro-rated as he will have missed around two months before he's ready to play, even if the Senators offered Forsberg a one-year, $5-million contract with an option year at the team's discretion, his actual salary this season would be around $3.4 million.

Still too much for the Senators to afford?

If it is, Murray and the Senators should concentrate on winning the Stanley Cup without him.

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