Waiting to bomb Iran

Aluf
Benn

Haaretz

Tishrei 16, 5765

While the debate in Israel was focused on the
disengagement plan, an entirely different discussion was developing in the
international media. They have become convinced in recent weeks that
Israel is planning an aerial attack on Iran's nuclear installations,
should it conclude that Iran is proceeding apace toward the development of
an atomic bomb, and the diplomatic effort to stop it has
failed.

This discussion is not taking place on remote Internet
sites, but in learned analyses by the most important newspapers in the
world, which are describing the anticipated Israeli bombing as a political
fact that is influencing decision makers in Washington and Europe.
Everyone knows that Israel considers the Iranian bomb the most serious
threat to its existence and its regional status.

The newspaper
articles recall the destruction of the Iraqi nuclear reaction in 1981 as
an example of what awaits the Iranians. They analyze the ability of the
Israel Air Force to carry out such an operation, and warn that it will
lead to terrible repercussions in the Middle East.

There is no
question that the bombing of Iran will be much more complicated than the
attack on the Iraqi reactor. The flight range is greater, the Iranian
installations are scattered and protected, and Iran is capable of
retaliating. But the interesting difference between Iraq and Iran is that
at the time, the Iraqi operation was planned in secret and was carried out
by surprise, and this time the ostensible preparations are being conducted
almost in the open.

The belief that Israel's patience is running
out have increased since July, when the British Sunday Times reported -
based on Israeli sources - on the advanced preparations for bombing the
reactor in Bushehr. The article, which was widely quoted all over the
world and aroused Iranian counter-threats, seems to be Israeli
psychological warfare.

The British papers are a well-known target
of such deliberate leaks, but no investigation was begun in Israel about
presumed revelations of operational secrets, and at the time, Iran seemed
to be evading diplomatic pressure. Afterward came the tests of the Israel
Arrow missile and the Iranian Shihab, and more belligerent declarations
from Teheran, and additional articles about the anticipated
operation.

Judging by an analysis of the articles, Israel has
decided to sharpen the sense of urgency in the international community, in
order to increase diplomatic pressure on Teheran to cease its enrichment
of uranium. This goal has been achieved, at least in the declarations
being heard from the United States and Europe, and in the decisions of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

It is possible that
factors in the West, doubtful about the success of the diplomatic effort,
prefer to have Israel act in their place. There are signs of that: Israeli
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who met with many of his colleagues at the
UN General Assembly, heard a great deal of understanding from them about
the Iranian danger, and serious doubts as to the chances of diplomacy.
Nobody asked Israel to refrain from a belligerent act.

Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon says that Israel is not planning a military
operation in Iran, and speaks of developing improved means of defense and
deterrence. But the foreign media were more interested in the threats
against the Iranians by senior members of the Israel Defense Forces. "We
will not rely only on others" (Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon), "We will
rely on others until we have to rely on ourselves" (his deputy, Dan
Halutz), "The operational capability of the air force has increased
significantly since the bombing of the Iraqi reactor" (Commander of the
Israel Air Force, Eliezer Shkedi).

Sharon is disturbed by the
growing acceptance, particularly in Europe, of Iran's impending membership
in the nuclear club. Meanwhile he is carefully walking on the edge, and is
exploiting his tough-guy image to arouse international attention. But nor
should we forget that the present political-military leadership - Sharon,
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, Ya'alon, Halutz - has few inhibitions about
exercising military might. Operations that were once considered taboo,
such as attacks on Damascus and assassinations of Hamas leaders, now seem
self evident.

A possible attack on Iran will be much more complex
and risky, and therefore we would do well not to ignore the threats, and
to conduct a public debate on the question of whether this course of
action is desirable for Israel.