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Has Syria crossed the line with Houla massacre?

Will the horror of Houla be the tipping point in Syria&rsquo;s deepening civil war? Like the massacre in Srebrenica in 1995 or the horrendous shelling of the Sarajevo market in 1994, will the mass killing near the town of Houla of at least 108 Syrian villagers, including 34 women and 49 children, be the breaking point for the world? Has the heinous Syrian regime finally crossed the line?

People gather at a mass burial for the victims purportedly killed during an artillery barrage from Syrian forces in Houla in this handout image dated May 26. UN observers in Syria have confirmed that artillery and tank shells were fired at a residential area of Houla, Syria, where at least 108 people, including many children, were killed. (REUTERS)

Will the horror of Houla be the tipping point in Syria’s deepening civil war? Like the massacre in Srebrenica in 1995 or the horrendous shelling of the Sarajevo market in 1994, will the mass killing near the town of Houla of at least 108 Syrian villagers, including 34 women and 49 children, be the breaking point for the world? Has the heinous Syrian regime finally crossed the line?

So far, the early signs are not good. The helplessness of the international community in the face of this latest outrage has been in full display. Efforts by the UN’s special envoy Kofi Annan are in disarray. Russia continues to favour its Syrian ally, as do Iran and China. A handful of Western governments, including Canada’s, expelled their Syrian diplomats but they have done little else. Meanwhile, the killing continues.

But the dangers ahead are not lost on anyone, and that may eventually break the impasse. The Syrian uprising has become the longest and bloodiest of all the insurrections throughout the Arab world in the past 18 months. With nearly 12,000 lives already lost, the courage of the Syrian people in the face of this has been breathtaking. But, apart from its poignancy, it is a conflict with enormous potential to destabilize the region and to disrupt the international order. Also, unless resolved, it is certain to get worse.

The massacre at Houla may be repeated again and again. What is important here is the number of eyewitnesses. All signs point to a civilian pro-government militia that witnesses say entered people’s homes in army fatigues and either cut their throats or shot them in the head.

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In terms of international intervention, there is no immediate military option. Russia and China would veto any efforts by the UN to initiate the same type of intervention which occurred in Libya. Also, neither the Americans nor NATO have the stomach for another Middle East adventure. The best hope appears to be diplomacy and increased sanctions against the Syrian regime.

The key player is Russia, Syria’s most important ally. Russia fears what may follow president Bashar al-Assad if he is toppled is chaos and sectarian violence, which could threaten Russia’s strategic interests and naval foothold. But there are signs now that even Vladimir Putin may be recognizing that the time for a deal may be close.

The Americans and Russians are discussing what has been called the “Yemenskii variant” as a way of transitioning Syria to a post-Assad model. It calls for something similar to the Saudi-backed plan for Yemen which got rid of dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh but kept family and key supporters initially in place. They would form part of the transitional administration before the holding of free elections. This idea will apparently be on the agenda at next month’s summit between Putin and U.S. president Barack Obama.

The tragedy for the Syrian people in all of this is that, for the world’s key governments, the Syrian conflict is not only a human story about horrors such as Houla. Increasingly, it is an unpredictable proxy war among competing world powers with very different strategic goals.

• Iran, which was the biggest loser in the “Arab Spring” because of its diminished influence, sees its long-held support of the Assad regime as a way of maintaining power over a key Arab country.

• Russia, which in the Soviet era had Middle Eastern influence over Egypt, Iraq and Syria, now has only Damascus in its corner, and even that is threatened.

• China, with massive economic interests in Iran, is actively supporting Syria’s Assad regime as a way of courting favour with Tehran.

• And the United States is not only in competition with these other global powers but it too is trying to find its way in a new Middle East where all rules are being rewritten.

Meanwhile, Syria’s neighbours are watching unfolding events in that country with dread. The governments in Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq are weak and unstable. The fear of a looming Sunni-Shiite sectarian war is often voiced. The euphoria of political liberation is increasingly clashing with ancient ethnic hatreds.

This Syrian tragedy has inflicted profound pain on the Syrian people. But as it careens further out of control, the crisis risks spilling beyond Syria’s borders and threatening the entire region, and beyond.

Let us hope that this prospect will motivate the world’s global powers to get this settled before it is too late.

Tony Burman, former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News, teaches journalism at Ryerson University. tony.burman@gmail.com

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