cain vs. junior: JDS has a lot of things in his favor this time around. his marital issues are settled, he's motivated like holy fire to get the belt back, and his team has had a long time to work on his weaknesses and possibly even develop some traps for when cain shoots on him. specifically, knowing that junior can be taken down repeatedly yet can't be finished has to be an enormous plus. it will allow him to take extra risks, like throwing a choice knee or uppercut when cain is changing levels, or maybe even doing something interesting when he's hopping against the fence with cain on the ground, clinging to the ankle. cain is still cain, but slight edge to JDS this time, probably by TKO. of course i'll be thrilled if i'm wrong.

cormier vs. nelson: roy has to hit the big punch or he's sunk. otherwise i expect cormier to grind him down and tire him out. of course nelson lost a tonne of weight for this fight, so that's an x-factor. cormier by decision, but probably not without getting in to danger along the way.

gilbert vs. diego sanchez: melendez is just too good. i think he, josh thompson, bendo and pettis are the big four of their division, with everyone else at a lower tier right now. gil by TKO.

no strong opinions on the other fights, but lombard vs. marquardt should be interesting, if only to see who shows up.

EDIT: so cormier weighed in around 224 and nelson, 249 i think. roy is doing the yoyo diet, and that's a bad sign. he was close to LHW weight just a few weeks ago. oO