Scientists expect the local climate to also shift, so that by the end of the century, Central New York feels more like the South.

View full sizeThe Syracuse Climate Change Garden at Syracuse University.Courtesy of Syracuse University

What does that mean for our local natural habitats? That's what Syracuse University is exploring with its Syracuse Climate Change Garden.

"The summer heat index, which is a measure of how hot it feels, will by 2100 be equivalent to current conditions in South Carolina if we don't do anything to curb greenhouse gas emissions," said SU biology professor Doug Frank. "Our dominant trees in CNY are not adapted to such conditions and will not do well."

SU biologists, along with experts at State University College of Environmental Science and Forestry, launched the garden last fall as a living laboratory to study the effects of global warming on Central New York trees and shrubs. The garden is on the quadrangle at SU's Life Sciences Complex.

It is home to both native trees and shrubs and those that typically live in warmer, drier places. Students will record growth measurements and watch leaf and root development as they monitor the health of each specimen.

The garden features nine species groups: maples, oaks, pines, birches, firs, magnolias, hemlocks, viburnums and witch hazels. In most groups, there is at least one "northern" member and one "southern" member. Many also have a "western" member, a species more common in the Midwest or West. Oaks, for example, include red and white oaks familiar to Central New Yorkers, plus the Midwestern shingle oak and the Southern shumard oak.

"We expect some of the southern species to have a rough go of it if we have some extreme winters over the next few years," said Jason Fridley, SU associate professor of biology. "That's part of the educational value -- which species are truly limited by climate, and which aren't."

Our recent bitterly cold winter is a concern. SU will be watching how the trees and shrubs do this spring. "We won't know for sure until the buds swell and the plants start leafing out," Frank said.

The garden also gives researches the chance to see how invasive species could become a problem. It includes species native to Europe and East Asia. Linden viburnum, for example, is native to China, Japan and Korea, but is grown as an ornamental in the United States and in some cases has been spread by birds into adjacent forests.
The climate garden was planted last fall. The trees are 10 to 12 feet tall now and the shrubs, 4 to 5 feet.

"The results from the garden will certainly provide valuable information on the changes in growth and performance of important North American trees as climate change proceeds," Frank said. "But I think that the greatest asset of the garden lies in the educational opportunities for SU students to study and discover these responses on their own. By doing so, they will gain a greater appreciation for how science operates and a better understanding of the likely profound impacts that climate change will have on our forest ecosystems."

ESF dendrology professor Don Leopold, who advised on the project, agreed.
"This is the most significant tree planting up on the hill," Leopold said. "Some of the selected tree species occur nowhere else in Central New York, so I am very excited about this planting and its significant instructional value."

USDA hardiness zones: Global warming has already shifted the hardiness zones used to determine which species of plants will do well in a given locale. Across the United States, warmth has shift northward. Check out the Abor Day Foundation's animated illustration showing this general warming from 1990 through 2006.

The USDA Forest Service Tree Atlas: This is a good tool for researching where habitats suitable for particular tree species are in the United States today as well as where they might be in the future, given global warming changes. The service offers a similar modeling atlas for birds. Start with this video, which explains what the atlas is all about.
Climate Change Atlas Quick Start Guide video