Global Volcano Model

Abstract

This project aims to develop a major international effort to create a Global Volcano Model (GVM) that provides systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk. The GVM project addresses hazards and risks on global, regional and local scales, and develops the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. The project builds on initiatives over the last several years to establish a global database of volcanic hazards (VOGRIPA) and to develop analysis and modelling tools to assess volcanic hazard and risk. The proposed GVM project also complements and interfaces with other major international initiatives, notably including the Global Volcanism Progamme of the Smithsonian Institution, WOVOdat (a database on precursors to volcanic eruptions), VHub (a US-led effort to develop an online collaborative environment for volcanology research and risk mitigation, including the development of more effective volcanic hazards models), the Volcano Observatory Best Practices Programme and the International Volcanic Health Hazards Network. The GVM project has parallels with the Global Earthquake Model in intention and scope of providing an authoritative source for assessing volcanic hazard and risk. There is a strong international consensus that GVM is an essential and timely undertaking. This project, which is within the natural hazards theme of NERC's strategy, provides a unique opportunity for the UK to play a leading role in a major international effort to address volcanic hazard and risk.There are 50 or so volcanic eruptions a year worldwide with approximately 20 ongoing at any one time. Increased global volcanic risk derives from factors that are increasing exposure and vulnerability, such as population growth, environmental degradation, urbanization, inequality and increasing independencies in a globalised world. There is also a decrease in societal resilience arising from the way society is organized and the increasing complexities of systems required to respond to emergencies, especially where impacts extend beyond national boundaries. The GVM project will develop an integrated global database system on volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure, make this globally accessible and crucially involve the international volcanological community and users in a partnership to design, develop, analyse and maintain the database system. The main hazards include: explosive eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lava domes, lava flows, lahars, tephra fall and ash dispersal, gas, flank collapse, debris flows and health hazards. New reliability indices and measures of uncertainty will be essential elements of the GVM. The GVM project will aim to establish new international metadata standards that will reduce ambiguity in the use of global volcanic datasets. Vulnerability and exposure data will be integrated into the GVM and again new methods of assessment and analysis will be investigated and tested. The integrated database system will be made available via an interactive web system with search engines using both spatial and text-based commands. The downloadable products (including maps, tables and text) and web system will be developed with end-users. Addition of data by users will be facilitated via an upload facility. New data or corrections will be validated by an editor before being incorporated.The project also intends to establish methodologies for analysis of the evidence and data to inform risk assessment, to develop complementary volcanic hazards models, and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. Only a very broad international interdisciplinary partnership that is closely aligned to the needs of users of research can meet all these ambitious objectives. The research will provide the scientific basis for mitigation strategies, responses to ash in the atmosphere for the aviation industry, land-use planning, evacuation plans and management of volcanic emergencies.

Planned Impact

The Director of UN ISDR (project supporter) has commented that there is no global knowledge platform for volcanism and volcanic hazard. Such a platform is urgently needed in the light of the Iceland ash crisis (the cost to Europe is estimated to be over 5 billion US$ according to Oxford Economics) and recent eruptions like Merapi, Indonesia (fatalities number at least 350 and over 40,000 evacuees). The Eyjafjallajökull ash crisis event has alerted the insurance and aviation industries to the impact of even small volcanic eruptions on their business. Willis Re and Munich Re (project partners) have indicated the need for a 'Global Volcano Model' (GVM), comparable to the Global Earthquake Model that they already strongly support and we're in discussion with the aviation industry. The World Bank Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery programme will find the outcomes useful and we're liaising through an existing project and informal contacts.The aim of the proposed GVM is to develop an integrated database system and the methods of analysis and models of hazard and risk required for such a model with international partners and end-users. A major objective of GVM will be to make the database system and analysis methods accessible to end users. The GVM project will process the raw data into forms that are useful (end-user defined), such as charts, maps, algorithms, statistical syntheses, and explanatory text, making them available via the web. The database system of volcanic hazards and vulnerability can be analysed to identify locations at high risk, gaps in knowledge about risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse local/regional risk within a global context of systematic information. Volcanic hazards data can be used to develop better empirical models of hazards and to improve numerical models of hazardous processes (both defined by the ICAO Task Force as priorities after the Eyjafjallajökull ash crisis).Volco observatories and Scientific Advisory Groups are the main end-users of such data. Many GVM partners have responsibility for both volcano observatories and research and others are also both researchers and end-users thus ensuring a thorough integration of research and impact (eg Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, New Zealand, Willis). We have engaged with the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) which deals with 74 observatories (see support letter). The GVM project will link with five major international initiatives that have recently started (see Case for Support). 1) VOGRIPA was initiated as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. It is being led and co-ordinated by Professor Sparks at Bristol. 2) WOVOdat aims to create a database of precursors to volcanic eruptions and is led by Earth Observatory of Singapore. 3) VHub is an online platform for modeling and collaboration in volcanology and associated risk mitigation (see vhub.org) led by the State University of New York at Buffalo. 4) The Volcano Observatory Best Practices Workshop programme is a new initiative developed under the auspices of WOVO. 5) The International Volcanic Health Hazards Network led by Durham University. In addition, the Geological Survey of Japan has a database of Quaternary eruptions in Japan which supports VOGRIPA and will support GVM. Geological and Nuclear Sciences New Zealand are leading the New Zealand Natural Hazards Research Platform which includes developing databases on volcanic hazard, vulnerability and risk, studies of social impacts and developing hazards analysis tools and assessing volcanic risk in Auckland. The University of Alaska Fairbanks has a detailed database of volcanic eruptions from mainland Alaska and the Aleutians which will also be made available.

This grant funded the start-up of the Global Volcano Model network. This network is developing in many different directions, we are now leading a number of different externally funded projects as a result. Developments included the first Global Volcanic Hazard and Risk analysis for the UN Global Assessment Report in 2015, a series of accessible and standardised relational databases on volcanic hazards and risk, a number of active working groups in topics related to volcanic hazards and risk, books for non-specialists (e.g. Science for Disaster Risk Management). We are now preparing for the Global Assessment Report 2019 and have contributed to projects funded by World Bank, USAid and others.We have enhanced interaction between Volcano Observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres through discussion about eruption source parameters, Volcano Observatory Notices for Aviation and Volcanic Ash Advisories.

Exploitation Route

Databases are being populated and used by many people worldwide, and it's increasingly important that the databases can be linked and have some commonalities. The data can be used in many ways including to calculate threat, risk, losses and so on. Our resources and outputs are steps forward in an effort to improve the science of volcanic hazards and risk worldwide.

We produced background reports for the UNISDR Global Assessment of Risk 2015 online. These were the first global assessments made for volcanic hazard and risk. We published the outcomes in a Cambridge University Press ebook 'Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk' which has had thousands of downloads and despite being available online has also sold as a hardback book.
The work is being used by scientists worldwide to advance the science necessary to improve understanding of risk. It's been used by the UN, World Bank, civil protection agencies and humanitarians.
Working groups are also advancing research of benefit to the aviation sector, especially Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres worldwide and national civil protection agencies. A GVM representative sits on the International Civil Aviation Organisation Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group. We have been invited to write book chapters on risk for non-scientists in government (e.g. Science for Disaster Risk Management), we provide weekly 'International Forward Look' on natural hazards and their impacts to UK government departments using GVM indices, we advise UK Government on response to volcanic hazards and impacts.
We have been invited to contribute to CAT models by various institutions.

The GVM network (through BGS) is contributing to a GO-Science led initiative to provide a weekly 'International Forward Look' on natural hazards worldwide to keep UK government departments informed and prepared.

Description

GVM contributions to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Geographic Reach

Multiple continents/international

Policy Influence Type

Participation in a advisory committee

Impact

The SFDRR is a 15 year programme 2015-2030 so we anticipate that impacts will increase with time. We already recognise changes in government activities on at least four continents. Volcanic risk is being included in national planning for the first time in many countries.

The GVM network contributed four technical papers to the UNISDR Global Assessment Report 2015. A significant amount of this material was quoted in the final published UNISDR GAR15 report. This marked the first time that volcanic hazards and risk had been included in this assessment of global risk.

A paper concerning the relationship of dome-forming eruptions with volcanic explosions and the database is accessible via VHub.

Title

ESP

Description

This is a database building on the work of Larry Mastin of USGS. The database provides default eruption source parameters for all volcanoes of the world for use in initiating ash dispersal models. Although the database began mainly as part of the GVM network project, the outcomes of this project ('Characterisation of the Near-Field Eyjafjallajokull Volcanic Plume and its Long-range influence') are also highly relevant and enable effective progress. The database is being developed so that it can be updated with new information.

Type Of Material

Database/Collection of data

Year Produced

2016

Provided To Others?

Yes

Impact

It is enabling close working relationships with Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres worldwide and providing them with information they might not otherwise have access to.

BGS co-funded and co-organised this workshop with partners at University of Geneva

Collaborator Contribution

University of Geneva partners funded, hosted and co-organised this workshop

Impact

http://www.unige.ch/sciences/terre/CERG-C/files/9015/4537/5034/HAZARD-TO-RISK-WORKSHOP-2018_ConsDoc.pdf
The workshop resulted in a consensual document.
This workshop included Geologists, Seismologists, Architects, Land Planners, Reinsurance, Mathematicians, Civil Protection

Start Year

2018

Description

ESP working group

Organisation

US Geological Survey

Country

United States

Sector

Public

PI Contribution

We are leading this working group that is developing the ESP database and liaising with VAACs and volcano observatories worldwide.

Collaborator Contribution

We initiated this working group, mainly under the auspices of the GVM network but also building on research carried out in this project. We are contributing strategy, ideas, research and further contacts.

Impact

A revised version of the Eruption Source Parameters database is being developed.
This collaboration includes mainly earth scientists (volcanologists) but liaising closely with users (atmospheric scientists) at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres.

Start Year

2016

Description

ESP working group

Organisation

University of Barcelona

Country

Spain

Sector

Academic/University

PI Contribution

We are leading this working group that is developing the ESP database and liaising with VAACs and volcano observatories worldwide.

Collaborator Contribution

We initiated this working group, mainly under the auspices of the GVM network but also building on research carried out in this project. We are contributing strategy, ideas, research and further contacts.

Impact

A revised version of the Eruption Source Parameters database is being developed.
This collaboration includes mainly earth scientists (volcanologists) but liaising closely with users (atmospheric scientists) at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres.

Start Year

2016

Description

ESP working group

Organisation

University of Geneva

Country

Switzerland

Sector

Academic/University

PI Contribution

We are leading this working group that is developing the ESP database and liaising with VAACs and volcano observatories worldwide.

Collaborator Contribution

We initiated this working group, mainly under the auspices of the GVM network but also building on research carried out in this project. We are contributing strategy, ideas, research and further contacts.

Impact

A revised version of the Eruption Source Parameters database is being developed.
This collaboration includes mainly earth scientists (volcanologists) but liaising closely with users (atmospheric scientists) at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres.

Start Year

2016

Description

EUROVOLC H2020 Research Infrastructures project

Organisation

Icelandic Met Office

Country

Iceland

Sector

Public

PI Contribution

Raising awareness of the role of petrology in understanding, preparing for and responding to volcanic unrest and eruptions.

Collaborator Contribution

They lead the H2020 EUROVOLC project.

Impact

The project has just started.

Start Year

2018

Description

Earth Observatory of Singapore

Organisation

Nanyang Technological University

Department

Earth Observatory Singapore

PI Contribution

We collaborate on volcanic ash fall hazards and risk and WOVOdat

Collaborator Contribution

Volcanic ash fall hazards and impacts expertise and they are developing a major volcanic unrest database.

Impact

Outputs (reports and hazards assessments) for two projects for the World Bank (GFDRR).

Start Year

2011

Description

Transdisciplinary and Interdisciplinary Research working group

Organisation

University of Cambridge

Country

United Kingdom

Sector

Academic/University

PI Contribution

We lead this international working group.

Collaborator Contribution

We organised a start-up workshop at the Cities on Volcanoes conference in Chile November 2016.

Impact

A workshop report is being produced. This is interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary.
Disciplines include geology, geophysics, engineering geology, social science, geography and more

Start Year

2016

Description

Transdisciplinary and Interdisciplinary Research working group

Organisation

University of East Anglia

Country

United Kingdom

Sector

Academic/University

PI Contribution

We lead this international working group.

Collaborator Contribution

We organised a start-up workshop at the Cities on Volcanoes conference in Chile November 2016.

Impact

A workshop report is being produced. This is interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary.
Disciplines include geology, geophysics, engineering geology, social science, geography and more

Start Year

2016

Description

UNISDR

Organisation

United Nations (UN)

Department

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

PI Contribution

GVM has contributed expert advice and will contribute to the Global Assessment Report 2019 .

Collaborator Contribution

UNISDR hosted the workshop and interactions.

Impact

None yet

Start Year

2011

Description

Volcano Deformation Database Task Force

Organisation

Cornell University

Country

United States

Sector

Academic/University

PI Contribution

1. compiled deformation observations of all volcanoes globally into a database that will be part of WOVOdat and the Smithsonian Catalog
2. documented any relation between deformation events and eruptions for the Global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk report for 2015 (GAR15) for the UN.
3. Better linkages of InSAR and other remote sensing observations to volcano observatories.

Collaborator Contribution

All the activities have been done jointly as a task force.

Impact

An accessible database has been completed and is in the process of being made available.

Start Year

2013

Description

Volcano Deformation Database Task Force

Organisation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Department

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Country

United States

Sector

Public

PI Contribution

1. compiled deformation observations of all volcanoes globally into a database that will be part of WOVOdat and the Smithsonian Catalog
2. documented any relation between deformation events and eruptions for the Global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk report for 2015 (GAR15) for the UN.
3. Better linkages of InSAR and other remote sensing observations to volcano observatories.

Collaborator Contribution

All the activities have been done jointly as a task force.

Impact

An accessible database has been completed and is in the process of being made available.

Start Year

2013

Description

Volcano Deformation Database Task Force

Organisation

National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV)

Country

Italy

Sector

Public

PI Contribution

1. compiled deformation observations of all volcanoes globally into a database that will be part of WOVOdat and the Smithsonian Catalog
2. documented any relation between deformation events and eruptions for the Global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk report for 2015 (GAR15) for the UN.
3. Better linkages of InSAR and other remote sensing observations to volcano observatories.

Collaborator Contribution

All the activities have been done jointly as a task force.

Impact

An accessible database has been completed and is in the process of being made available.

Start Year

2013

Description

Volcano Deformation Database Task Force

Organisation

Smithsonian Institution

Department

Global Volcanism Program (GVP)

Country

United States

Sector

Learned Society

PI Contribution

1. compiled deformation observations of all volcanoes globally into a database that will be part of WOVOdat and the Smithsonian Catalog
2. documented any relation between deformation events and eruptions for the Global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk report for 2015 (GAR15) for the UN.
3. Better linkages of InSAR and other remote sensing observations to volcano observatories.

Collaborator Contribution

All the activities have been done jointly as a task force.

Impact

An accessible database has been completed and is in the process of being made available.

Start Year

2013

Description

Volcano Deformation Database Task Force

Organisation

University of Miami

Country

United States

Sector

Academic/University

PI Contribution

1. compiled deformation observations of all volcanoes globally into a database that will be part of WOVOdat and the Smithsonian Catalog
2. documented any relation between deformation events and eruptions for the Global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk report for 2015 (GAR15) for the UN.
3. Better linkages of InSAR and other remote sensing observations to volcano observatories.

Collaborator Contribution

All the activities have been done jointly as a task force.

Impact

An accessible database has been completed and is in the process of being made available.

Start Year

2013

Description

Attendance at UNISDR GAR15 meetings

Form Of Engagement Activity

A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue

Part Of Official Scheme?

No

Geographic Reach

International

Primary Audience

Professional Practitioners

Results and Impact

Members of the GVM network attended multiple international meetings to prepare for, and share expertise for, the Global Assessment Report 2015. We produced four technical papers as background information for the Global Assessment Report.

Presentation and contributions to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Form Of Engagement Activity

A talk or presentation

Part Of Official Scheme?

No

Geographic Reach

International

Primary Audience

Policymakers/politicians

Results and Impact

The GVM network contributed to the Global Assessment Report 2015 and then went on to contribute to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. This presentation was given at Sendai in March 2015 at the SFDRR conference.