Why Russia Doesn’t Want Crimea

Some TV and Twitter commentators have begun to suggest an independent Crimea as a solution for the region’s troubles. That may or may not be what a majority of Crimeans would like to see—some prefer union with Russia; others are content to remain with Ukraine—but from Russia’s point of view an independent or Russian-annexed Crimea is hardly the most desirable thing. Russia’s primary interest in Crimea, basing rights, is already secure even with the peninsula as part of Ukraine. An independent Crimea gives Russia nothing that Russia doesn’t already have. And it would deprive Russia of an invaluable asset: a large bloc of ethnic Russians within the Ukrainian electorate.

This conflict is about Ukraine, not Crimea. Russia has far-reaching interests in its neighbor—everything from pipelines to a strategic and ideological buffer zone—that are complicated by the fall of Yanukovich and the coming to power of anti-Russian leaders in Kiev. The circumstances of Yanukovich’s fall (and practically speaking, he has fallen, even if he refuses to admit it) further loosen Russia’s grip. Thus the upheaval in Crimea is a bargaining chip, not an end in itself: it’s a way for Putin to make sure that Russian interests in Ukraine as a whole are accommodated as the country’s political future is worked out.

Keeping Ukraine intact serves Russian interests better than splitting the country into separate states, but obviously Russia wants Ukraine’s integrity to be preserved on Russia’s terms. So this is the space within which negotiations can be expected to take place. What settlement is possible that will give pro-Russian Ukrainians a strong hand, and perhaps disproportionate one, within a united Ukraine, while satisfying a critical mass of the forces that toppled Yanukovich? Russia and the EU both have considerable economic stakes in Ukraine as a stable thoroughfare, so as difficult as the situation certainly is, there’s plenty of weight on the side of a grand bargain. And given how corrupt Ukrainian politics is on all sides, one suspects that money will talk louder even than nationalism—though that’s never an absolutely sure bet.

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19 Responses to Why Russia Doesn’t Want Crimea

If Western powers want Russia to have less of a loyal bloc of voters within Ukraine, they might want to offer a deal where the Crimea and the easternmost oblasty of Ukraine are allowed to split from the rest of Ukraine. They could become part of Russia outright or could be nominally independent.

Either way, the result would be a Ukraine with a much lower percentage of people who (1) speak Russian at home rather than Ukrainian and/or (2) identify more with Russia than with Europe, America, or “the West” generally.

And I surely don’t believe that Russia doesn’t want Crimea as part of Russia proper if it can achieve that result without a military conflict.

President Obama,
“We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine.It would represent a profound interference in matters that must be determined by the Ukrainian people.”

Actually, Crimea IS the thing. The rest, depends. Ukraine is a torn nation, Huntington was able to see this in 1996, most of people in Crimea knew it all along. Sevastopol has a gigantic cultural, historic and strategic (in this order) meaning for Russians. How, in what form will Ukraine survives, remains to be seen but the process of disintegration has started. As for basing rights, no they are not secure and never were, each time creating a sh.tstorm in Kiev with every move of Black Sea Fleet. Now some info: the plans of modernization of the Russian Black Sea Fleet include:

In all, up to 15 new hulls by 2020. This is serious. It also changes Mediterranean deployment posture and the implications for the region are enormous. They are, by default, will be enormous for Tavrida: Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson. No matter who will be in power in Kiev, current nazis or just plain pro-Western bureaucrats.

What’s going to unfold later with Ukraine we’ll see, but Putin (I admit–he is not complete moron) understands that the fate of Sevastopol and Crimea (and Russians in them) can make or break his presidency. The stakes for him are enormous and this is not South Ossetia, it is way more important. This is in a nutshell. So, I have to really disagree with the title of the article. It is about Crimea now.

The precedents are not good: North Ossetia and Abkhazia. Why on Earth Russia wants these two places, given the racist hatred so many Russians feel toward “khachi”, is beyond any rational analysis. The same scenario is unfolding now in Crimea.

Russia is sure acting like it wants the Crimea and it is easy to see their point. An EU/Nato Ukrainian government may well give basing rights at Sevastopol to the US. That is certainly a reason which has figured in the subversion of Ukraine sponsored by the CIA, the US state Department and Soros. Keeping the Crimea and the ethnic Russian eastern parts of Ukraine and letting the EU have the neo-Nazi west may be Putin’s best play – indeed his only play.

All hello from Russia, I understand your concern concerning a served situation, but as though there was no wish the Crimea it is the occupied Russian territory where 70% are lived by the Russian people, in your news there is no information on that that in the Crimea started killing the Russian people. And if to be exact but at the moment when in the USSR in power there was Khrushchev the Ukrainian a nationality that the Crimea simply selected at Russia when it used the influence and as Russia now has to arrive when in Ukraine forbade Russian and who on is mute speaks suggest to put in prison, groups of fighters of nationalists go to the Crimea to beat Russians as in 91 when Russia lay in ruins.

Regardless of what the US or Russia wants, it would be better for Ukraine to split. The people of the two countries will have better control of governments in sync with their beliefs and cultures. Of course it would still be messy. There is no clear dividing line border between the two populations.

It seems Russia is alread moving to secure it’s bases and it’s Russian speaking people in the Crimea..easy to do in such a peninsula with a very small land entry point on the north coast,and a Russian Navy controlled coastline
and how stupid of the new regime in Kiev to legislate today to remove russian one of the offical languages of the Ukraine…a clear blow at the multi-lingual basis of the Ukraine formerly

but if the Russian wnat the Crimea it’as there for the taking,…and they won’t be pleased at another report today that Tartar jihardist from the Crimea ,were trained in Turkey to fight in Syria by the CIA……but were then diverted to Kiev…The Russians will see this as a danger given that 15% of people in the Crimnea are Tartars and moslems

‘The precedents are not good: North Ossetia and Abkhazia. Why on Earth Russia wants these two places, given the racist hatred so many Russians feel toward “khachi”, is beyond any rational analysis. The same scenario is unfolding now in Crimea.’

It all belongs to Holy Mother Russia.
All other considerations are beside the point.

Since Russia occupied Crimea today, I think McCarthy needs an update. Pres Obama will need to think of a response to Putins poker “call.” Some escalation by our side will be needed in order to build up leverage for the inevitable negotiations.

Only people who don’t know anything at all think that Yanukovich is pro-Russian president. The guy has torpedoed all the integration efforts and avoided fulfilling all the electoral promises he made for Russians and Russian speaking citizens in Ukraine. His year-long propaganda of EU Association treaty was effectively the thing which allowed radicals to use masses against him when he reconsidered.
Unification of Ukraine is not possible any more. Only under extreme, 50th Latin America style dictatorship. Western Ukrainians in power cancelled law about regional languages as a first step. Next step was to have a law prohibiting Russian ethnic in Ukraine have full civil rights (Baltic states style). They have already disarmed special police forces, sized their weapons in Western and Central Ukraine and issued a law that other police forces are not allowed to leave their points of permanent dislocation.
Eastern Ukrainians call them fascists and nazis. And preparing themselves to fight against right wing “Pravi Sector” militants.
And on top of that Army of Ukraine is existing only on paper (like in Crimea out of 49 Ukrainian fighter jets only 4 were actually able to fly), Ukrainian economy is in terrible shape, they just have nothing at all at current account.
And your are discussing does Putin want Crimea, whole Ukraine or only its half when we are all just month from full scale (45 millions people there is you forgot) humanitarian catastrophe right in the middle of the Europe. Don’t you think he just don’t want this catastrophe to happen?
If you can’t believe that tell me what exactly are current plans of US and EU for Ukraine if they even can’t asses the current political and economic situation there right?