The Renaissance of Gin, 4: Conclusions and Commentary, how the category and market may develop over the next 10 years

Although there has been a clear revival in the popularity of gin, and an explosion of new brands, we have seen that the impact has been limited to the premium-plus categories. New and existing customers have traded up, leaving the lower-value categories to continue to decline. There is little evidence to suggest that the renaissance will extend to lower-value categories, nor that gin is taking significant market share from other spirits.[1]

Can anything can be learned from the rapidly expanding craft-beer market? Bernstein concludes that gin could be the category where craft products play a major role but points out that this is likely only at the top end of the market, and that craft gin accounts for just 5% of the UK market by value.[2] Also, the low price point of a single bottle of beer compared to gin means that the purchase trends will be very different and customer experimentation with gin will be more limited.

The author of this four-part essay is Andrew de Csillery. The essay was written in autumn 2015 as part of the studies and examination for a wine and spirits qualification. The views expressed and the conclusions reached are those of the author alone.

Another factor is the ability of smaller producers to serve more than just their local markets. International expansion requires significant investment in marketing and sales resources, even if distribution agreements are in place with locally established companies. Producing sufficient quantities of gin will be challenging, given the artisanal nature of most distillers. Realistically, only the established players can serve many markets at the same time, yet most mid-market high-volume brands have failed to benefit from the gin renaissance.[3]

From a marketing perspective, as yet more products enter a market, the challenge to stand out from the competition becomes increasingly difficult:

The gin must be top quality and recognised as such.

The marketing message to the trade and to the consumer must be distinctive, typically based on provenance of the botanicals and the gin.

The gin needs to stand out on a crowded shelf in both the on- and off-trade, meaning that packaging innovation is critical.

These factors all suggest that there are limits to the number of brands that can realistically have a major share of any local market, let alone a global one.

In conclusion, the early and recent history of gin shows that consumer tastes change and that the fashionable drink of today is inevitably replaced by a new choice as consumers search for new tastes and experiences. My expectation is that the renaissance of gin will continue but will remain limited to premium markets. The launch rate of new gins will peak and then slow as each market becomes increasingly crowded and new brands find it difficult to gain consumer attention, and as other drinks become fashionable. Eventually, there will be rationalisation, with those gins that have built true brand loyalty and recognition staying the course, while the others remain niche products or disappear altogether.

Gordon’s London Dry Gin, copyright BKWine Photography

Appendix 1 – Global Gin Sales, Top 12 Countries

The graph shows the sales from the top 12 gin consuming countries accounting for c.85% of global gin sales, according to the IWSR:[4]

Top gin consuming countries

Appendix 3 – Global Gin Brands (million 9L cases)

The tables below show the major international gin brand volumes as reported by two different sources. There are inconsistencies in the data, a problem encountered when analysing much of the available data throughout the research for this essay. However, the inconsistencies do not change the story presented, therefore I have not tried to reconcile the figures.