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Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

comment . It has occurred to me possibly that the level of ability might be a or the issue , given that there are four levels of government , each subject to the decisions of the greater power . Canada has a reputation for being more socially liberal than the US ( we were one of the earliest countries to accept gay marriage ) also thinking capital punishment , but both in Canada were federal-national , a single act of parliament , but in the US each decision about both gay marriage and capital punishment is at the state level so you might never achieve anonymity . I think there are or were recently several states that still support Prohibition in whole or in part , federally 1933 .

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

I agree that Maine and Washington will approve marriage equality, with Maryland rejecting it. Minnesota it's hard to predict. What I see happening is the Yes side getting more votes, but not enough for a full majority. Regardless it'll be very close (the fact that polls showed movement towards our side after the opposition attack ads began airing is very good for us).

If we win even one of the four it will change the conversation dramatically, in addition to th likely reinstatement of same sex marriage in California in the coming weeks.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by scream4ever

Have you two been following any of the four campaigns and how high our polling numbers are?

Originally Posted by bendted

I'm in Maine and the "buzz" is that it will pass.

Yeah, well, all the polls in California had Prop 8 going down in flames. There was no way it could pass! California is too liberal! Californians have always supported human rights! California is a gay Mecca!

But it passed.

You people don't have any conception of how much you are hated by American society. Deeply, thoroughly, and fundamentally hated.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

I think Daily Kos has it almost right. The polling data always overestimate support for marriage equality. Always.

The reason is the nature of polling. People don't like to admit to pollsters that they are bigots. When someone calls you and asks "Do you hate gay people?" the inclination is to say "No," even when you hate gays beyond all comprehension.

But, in the quiet of the voting booth, when no one is looking, the bigotry is free to come out.

It's going to be a looooooooooooooooooong time before we achieve gay rights in America. I don't expect to live to see that day.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by RazorzEdge88

Are you kidding? Do you think everyone just votes based on their stance on same-sex marriage?

What I'm saying is, for the people who vote Democratic and claim they're liberal or liberal enough, a state like Maryland that is so deeply blue should come through for LGBT. Otherwise, I think these people need to be called out. As was the case in 2008 California. And I wasn't one bit happy with my home state of Michigan, so in a hurry to nominate John Kerry in the primaries ("Gotta get rid of Bush!"), that (as they carried for Kerry) they were crossovers with having voted against LGBT to pass a marriage ban in the general election of 2004.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

The two latest polls out of Washington show very strong leads for our side, Yes Survey USA showed a decline, but the same poll right before election day in 2009 showed Referendum 71 winning 50 to 43. It won 53 to 47. The latest Survey USA poll shows Referendum 74 winning 52 to 43. In addition, the other poll showed our side with a 21 point lead, but even more importantly, a bias test was conducted to account for people who lied to pollsters and such. It found that even accounting for that, we were still winning 52.3 to 45.8.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

If you think everyone who claims to be a liberal or Democrat really is one, you've been living in Candyland.

I don't think that.

That's been a big problem with the Democratic Party.

I'm glad President Obama come out in support of same-sex marriage. After Vice President Biden. But when it comes to these states that have been blue since either 1988 or 1992, it's time to hold those [Democratic] voters accountable. And that's why I mentioned California, with Prop. #08, in 2008. And that's why Maryland should be expected to deliver support for the LGBT community even before some of these others do.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

It will pass in Washington. We beat the bigots last time for our domestic partnerships and we'll beat them again. I am very optimistic! My friend is so sick and stressed out right now. He was miserable when I went and saw him last night because he thinks it won't pass in Washington (a lot of red signs in our city). However, I told him it will pass. Washington will do the right thing.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by Just_Believe18

It will pass in Washington. We beat the bigots last time for our domestic partnerships and we'll beat them again. I am very optimistic! My friend is so sick and stressed out right now. He was miserable when I went and saw him last night because he thinks it won't pass in Washington (a lot of red signs in our city). However, I told him it will pass. Washington will do the right thing.

Share the latest polling news with your friend. As far as signs, the red signs popping up are a sign of despiration. The opposition knows they're losing.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by Just_Believe18

It will pass in Washington. We beat the bigots last time for our domestic partnerships and we'll beat them again. I am very optimistic! My friend is so sick and stressed out right now. He was miserable when I went and saw him last night because he thinks it won't pass in Washington (a lot of red signs in our city). However, I told him it will pass. Washington will do the right thing.

Referendum 71 (the Domestic partnerships) passed with 52% of the voters supporting it, and 48% against. And this was after the Yes on R-71 stressed that supporting domestic partnerships was NOT the same thing as gay marriage. That means that 48% of Washington voters were against even giving gays domestic partnerships that were not marriages.

If same-sex marriage can lose the public vote in such a socially liberal state as California (a la Prop 8), I don't think it has a chance anywhere else

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

^ Gleefully sad. You don't know a damn thing that's going on in Washington right now. You've already declared failure over an issue that you've never lifted a finger to help. Here in Washington, we've been fighting for this for years. It's taken a lot of work, and a lot of sweat and tears, but it's going to finally happen. Meanwhile, I'm having to deal with a friend who is a mess right now because he's so afraid it's not going to pass. He's had his green signs ripped up and replaced with red ones, and it's really brought him down to think that people in his neighborhood hate him and his partner for who they are. And I've been encouraging to them all this time, and trying to give them hope that it is going to pass because all the right signs are here.

Then you have the audacity to post something you pulled off of Wikipedia, then compare California's Prop. 8 (Which by the way YOU helped to pass) to Washington and say that marriage equality isn't going to pass. So not knowing anything about my state, you cast your doom and gloom apologetic "Sorry hunny" as if your faux sympathy was somehow suppose to comfort my "well meaning" optimism that my friends can soon marry after being together for 9 years!

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

i though there were opposing referendum on gay marriage in Washington, but i only saw one on the ballot - R74. its approve or reject a law that has already been passed. it will pass, just dont forget to vote.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by JayQueer

Referendum 71 (the Domestic partnerships) passed with 52% of the voters supporting it, and 48% against. And this was after the Yes on R-71 stressed that supporting domestic partnerships was NOT the same thing as gay marriage. That means that 48% of Washington voters were against even giving gays domestic partnerships that were not marriages.

If same-sex marriage can lose the public vote in such a socially liberal state as California (a la Prop 8), I don't think it has a chance anywhere else

Sorry hunny

Check the facts. 71 passed 53.15% to 46.85%. Don't even compare the campaigns we've been running this year to the one to defeat Prop 8. We are on top of things and have such a coalition. Mark my words, Washington and Maine will approve same sex marriage come election day.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by JayQueer

If same-sex marriage can lose the public vote in such a socially liberal state as California (a la Prop 8), I don't think it has a chance anywhere else

APATHY is the problem in California...always has been. IF the people who actually support gay marriage would actually vote...we would have had a landslide. I suspect it may be a problem everywhere but as I am familiar with California I can attest to it here.

I know this because I lived it. I was a bartender in a popular Bay Area Gay Bar for 20 solid years and I worked very hard getting people to register and vote from the time I was 21. I used to promise to buy everyone a drink who brought me a voting stub...and I didn''t have to spend very much....ever....sadly.....I also volunteered to take them to the voting booth...no one ever took me up on it.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by T-Rexx

You people don't have any conception of how much you are hated by American society. Deeply, thoroughly, and fundamentally hated.

No doubt. I feel it everyday, believe me. Heterosexuals by a wide majority hate us (except for the condescending topically 'gay friendly' crowd), always will. One more thing: gay marriage approval won't change a thing unless of course one is living under a grand illusion, but it is still in the right direction.

It is weird to me to cite history as a credible prediction source, when polls show that for the last 2 years approval of gay people has been rising by 5% nationwide. We've been a little under the 50% threshold for a while now, is it so unimaginable that we might be a few percent above it now. Despite defeatist psychology, the world changes, and people with it.

That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
- Gene Wolfe

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by JockBoy87

We will lose Maryland 52-48.

Maine and Washington each will win 51-49.

There is no knowing what will happen in Minnesota. If everyone answers the question, the amendment will be approved 54-46. However, there is usually a large percentage of people who do not. If that percentage is 5%, as often quoted, the amendment will fail.

I predict we'll win by slightly higher margins in Washington and Maine, like 53%, as per the Daily Kos analysis.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

The final poll to be taken In Maine shows marriage equality ahead by 52-45:

Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

If we win even one, it's a dramatic change in conversation - a state where the PEOPLE voted FOR gay rights is ten times more important for the movement than any actual win this year. Though I'd be surprised if we don't win at least two of the four. Last Minnesota poll shows us winning with 52 against and 45 for.

That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
- Gene Wolfe

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by Just_Believe18

It will pass in Washington. We beat the bigots last time for our domestic partnerships and we'll beat them again. I am very optimistic! My friend is so sick and stressed out right now. He was miserable when I went and saw him last night because he thinks it won't pass in Washington (a lot of red signs in our city). However, I told him it will pass. Washington will do the right thing.

You'd better -- your neighbors to the south are counting on you!

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by Just_Believe18

He's had his green signs ripped up and replaced with red ones, and it's really brought him down to think that people in his neighborhood hate him and his partner for who they are. And I've been encouraging to them all this time, and trying to give them hope that it is going to pass because all the right signs are here.
....Well, I have no apology for you.

One truly sad thing is that about half of the people who will vote against equality report that they have friends and family who are gay. They somehow manage to shut out of their minds that by voting against equality they're effectively tightening the chains on those friends and family members. If they had any moral backbone at all, before voting they'd go to each of those friends and/or family members and say, "I'm voting to keep you from having the same freedoms I have. I'm voting to keep you from having your loving relationships recognized the same way mine is. I'm voting for religious discrimination, because I think Jesus made a mistake when He said to love my neighbors as myself -- that doesn't apply to gays."

And you're right -- there's no room for apology for the hate.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Have you sent a check to support that effort in Washington? or asked your dad to do so?

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by JockBoy87

There is no knowing what will happen in Minnesota. If everyone answers the question, the amendment will be approved 54-46. However, there is usually a large percentage of people who do not. If that percentage is 5%, as often quoted, the amendment will fail.

Odd, that in California apathy brought discrimination, but in Minnesota helps equality.

I wish Oregon had that provision about constitutional amendments! We get such idiotic proposals because people know their measures can be passed by less than a majority of voters.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

Originally Posted by bendted

No doubt. I feel it everyday, believe me. Heterosexuals by a wide majority hate us (except for the condescending topically 'gay friendly' crowd), always will. One more thing: gay marriage approval won't change a thing unless of course one is living under a grand illusion, but it is still in the right direction.

A man walking along the seashore after a storm caught up with a girl who had just managed to scoop up a stranded crab and toss it back in the water. Pointing down the beach, he noted all the other stranded crabs, and said, "It doesn't make a difference". Watching the one scuttle through the shallows, she replied, "It made a difference to that one."

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

If we win even one, it's a dramatic change in conversation - a state where the PEOPLE voted FOR gay rights is ten times more important for the movement than any actual win this year.

I agree. It would be wonderful to win at least one!

Originally Posted by Rolyo85

Though I'd be surprised if we don't win at least two of the four. Last Minnesota poll shows us winning with 52 against and 45 for.

I wish I could agree. I'll believe a victory when I see it.

The experience with gay rights polling is that it overestimates support by ~6%. The experience is also that effectively ALL of the undecideds [100 - (#supporters + #opponents)] vote against gay rights. If you apply that formula to Minnesota, then we have ~46% real support vs. 45% favoring passage. But there are 3% undecided (100 - (52 + 45)). That would put supporters of the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage at ~48% (vs. ~46% against).

I hope that analysis is very wrong, and that Minnesota voters will do the right thing. But, I find it hard to be optimistic. We have never won this fight. Ever. Not anywhere in America.

Originally Posted by JockBoy87

It will take a generation at least in the plains and the lower Mississippi Valley.

Politics is also likely more difficult to change than popular opinion. There is evidence however that once popular opinion is over 60% in many countries, the politics usually starts flowing on marriage equality. I count the same happening in the states.

Yes, the 60% number is critical. That fits with the ~6% overestimation of support and the undecided vote breaking against us. 60% - 6% - 3% to 4% leaves us with 50% to 51% support. And that's enough to change things. But, less than 60% support in the polls may not be enough.

I think that Obama's change of heart and public endorsement of gay marriage has been enormously, enormously helpful. That should help to change some people's minds. But, I agree. It will be another generation before many parts of America are ready.

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

The 6% figure refers to underestimation of opposition, not overestimation of support, which is about 2% typically.

Did you see the DailyKos article on statistics? Remarkably consistent trend.

That 6% represents cultural and personal conservatism: when in doubt, oppose change.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

So I calculated the projected final results using the Daily Kos formula (average out polls of likely voters post Labor Day, add 6 points to the opposition, take away 2 points from the support), and this is what I got:

Washington: 51.89% YES, 46.26% NO

Maine: 51.73% YES, 48.21% NO

Minnesota: 53.2% YES, 45.8% NO (amendment banning same-sex marriage)

I decided not to do Maryland simple because of a lack of polling compared to the others and because the accuracy of some were called into question.