Super Bowl XLV Predictions

I have gone back and forth on this game since Big Ben completed that 3rd and 6 against the Jets. You could make a case either way and convince someone that you’re right. Normally I have a pretty decent feeling about who is going to win the game. Sometimes I’m wrong (like last year) and sometimes I’m right (in ’07 when I picked New York over New England), but I don’t have a good feeling one way or the other this year. While I don’t have a good feeling about the ultimate victor, I do have a good feeling about this: it’s going to be close. Very close. Perhaps even overtime-close.

Let’s take a look…

Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, who has been stupendous lately, although he showed some warts against Chicago, especially near goal line interception to Brian Urlacher when up 14-0. While he redeemed himself somewhat by tackling Urlacher in the open field–a la Ben Roethlisberger in ’05 after Jerome Bettis fumbled going into the endzone against Indianapolis–he still could not put together a drive to kill Chicago, he had to have B.J. Raji and Sam Shields do that for him. Nevertheless, QBs are judged, fairly or unfairly, on wins and losses.

Pittsburgh has Roethlisberger, who, like Rodgers, has been stupendous lately. But he has a way of looking terrible for stretches, but pulling out big plays when absolutely needed. Something that he did, again, against New York (the third and six). His gift to Pittsburgh is also his curse, he keeps plays alive because he’s a giant and he never quits. This leads to huge plays for Pittsburgh but also leads to turnovers and sacks.

I had Roethlisberger (No. 4) by himself in Tier Two even though his accomplishments and his abilities required that he be in Tier One. I did this because I didn’t know how he’d respond this year after all that he and Little Big Ben put themselves “through” in the offseason.

As for Rodgers (No. 5), I had him leading the Tier Three pack.

After this year, it is clear to me that Tier One is a five-man rotation. I’m going to allow Brees a pass this year because evidently he played the year with an injury, which explains the miscues he had this year interception-wise, same with Manning, but his issues were personnel-driven.

I don’t know who the “best” is right now, but I’d be hard pressed not to pick either of the two guys getting ready for a big game in Dallas right now. It’s hard to argue against them considering that those two (plus Brady) play in outdoor stadiums where the weather can be freezing cold while Brees and Manning play half of their games (minimum) indoors. Gun to my head, I think I’d go with Rodgers simply because he’s slightly more accurate and takes care of the ball better than Roethlisberger (but like I said, that’s part of Roethlisberger’s allure… tough choice).

Aside from the quarterbacks, who are always interesting to talk about and fret over, there are scores of other intriguing on-field elements to this game (I specified on-field because the off-field stuff I suppose is interesting, but not to me. I don’t care about Roethlisberger’s lothario behavior, nor do I care about Rodgers “snubbing” a cancer patient. I’ve said this before and I’ll continue to say it, I’m not going to dinner with these guys or introducing them to my kid, I watch them play football, and I enjoy it. Everything else is a big pile of WhoGivesASh*T). The other elements include the plethora of playmakers everywhere on the field for both teams, both offensively and defensively. Both sets of receivers are fantastic with speed to burn. Both sets of linebackers are ferocious, boasting top-shelf pass rushers. Both defensive lines are great and have collapsed offensive lines all year long.

Now, I know that Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been a subject of derision for the season, but am I supposed to ignore what I’ve seen during the playoffs? It’s not like the New York Jets had a weak defensive front seven and Rashard Mendenhall one of his best games of the season against them, and that’s with center Maurkice Pouncey getting injured very early in the game. He’s a nice HB, but goes nowhere if the line doesn’t clear some holes. In fact, NYJ’s defensive front was the fourth best in the league this year according to at least one metric, the defensive hog index. (incidentally, Pittsburgh was No. 1 and Green Bay was No. 10).

The really interesting thing about these two teams is that they both pass the eye test. They both look like they should be good. Nearly every time I’ve watched them play I’ve thought, “They [meaning Pittsburgh or Green Bay] are going to win.” So what now? Now that they’re playing each other? It has the makings of an unbelievable game.

Also, check this out, according to Pro Football Reference, based on their statistical analysis, both Pittsburgh and Green Bay finished the regular season with an expected win loss record of 12.1-3.9.

Here are some of the stats that PFR used to come up with the identical projected records of each team:

The bottom line is that they are essentially the same team. The Super Bowl is going to be an intrasquad scrimmage.

Not only do their numbers line up closely, but they both run (excellent) 3-4 defenses. Oftentimes teams have trouble against these kinds of defensive fronts (Seattle is one of those teams) because they are not used to seeing them and they don’t have great game plans against them. Well, these guys see this every day. Also, aside from each offense seeing their own defense every week, these two teams have played several 3-4 defenses during the course of their seasons.

Green Bay’s defense will not surprise Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh’s defense will not surprise Green Bay.

But here’s an interesting wrinkle about the game, in each of Green Bay’s three playoff wins, they have either ended the game or altered the outcome of the game dramatically with an interception. Tramon Williams picking off Michael Vick on Philly’s last play… Williams picking off Matt Ryan and taking it to the house at the end of the first half (effectively murdering Atlanta)… Raji doing the same to Caleb Hanie coupled with Shields intercepting Hanie’s last pass (and causing his coaches to go into nearly instantaneous cardiac arrest for not taking a knee immediately but instead running down the field for 40 or so yards).

My point is this; can they keep it up? Can they continue to expect their defense to make those kinds of plays? I know good defenses force turnovers, but you need a QB to make a foolish decision coupled with you making a good decision for that to happen. I got burned last year because even though I loved the ability of New Orleans’s defense to create turnovers I didn’t trust them to do it in the Super Bowl.

Not this year.

I’m picking Green Bay to keep it up.

Here’s how it’s going to happen:

Situation: Overtime, Pittsburgh ball on the Pittsburgh 21 Score: 23-20 Green Bay (Green Bay got the ball first in OT and marched down the field, but stalled and had to settle for a field goal).Drive: Pittsburgh makes its way down the field and on 2nd and 14 from the Green Bay 35 Roethlisberger takes a shot downfield and it is intercepted by Charles Woodson. Woodson falls down. Game over.

MVP: Charles Woodson – two interceptions (stiff-arming his own QB this time as he did to Peyton Manning in ’97 for the Heisman)

But that means going against a Pittsburgh team that seemingly doesn’t know how to die. I would be absolutely terrified to see Roethlisberger in the situation I describe above. I don’t have to imagine him coming through in the clutch because we’ve already seen it before… the thought gives me fever chills… the final could easily be 26-23 Pittsburgh with him completing a long pass to Mike Wallace for the win…

Screw it, I’m sticking to my guns. And I’ll admit, it was this video clip of Charles Woodson that swayed me. (And tell me he does not look and sound the part of a CEO or a Governor or some such leadership position. That’s just an awesome post-game speech. Incredible. He had me standing up and giving him virtual high fives in my living room…)