While Thailand might keep climbing, the Philippines could be set to disappoint, says Timothy Moe, chief equity strategist for the Asia-Pacific region for Goldman Sachs.

First the Philippines: Moe “loves the story but not the valuation.” The Philippines have transformed its economy and there’s a good case for it continuing to grow at a strong clip. But its stock market is trading at 20 times earnings and it’s unlikely that its companies will produce the earnings surprises that would make that 20x look more like 13x. “Don’t overpay for growth,” Moe says. “You have to pick your entry point.”

Thailand might be overbought in the short-term, but its economy is growing at a 20% clip and its stocks trade at 13 times earnings, Moe says. It also has a level of political stability that was unthinkable a couple years ago. And its economy could get a further boost if some “mega-projects” that have been in the works get approved–and that could improve efficiency in the economy as well.

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MARCH 22, 2013 2:50 P.M.

Hmm wrote:

Is it really reasonable to put a choice on stock as if its black and white? The reason why PH is trading at 20x is due to the large foreign cash inflows getting into the local market including the expectation of the country getting that investment rating.

The country is rebuilding, it has it's own money, it's banks are top notch already Basel III compliant that most US or Euro Banks can't even get, there are billions of $ of infrastructue projects on going, mining contracts being signed all with the help of better gorvernance and enforcement of getting their tax revenues without a tax increase.

Now you're putting it in a position to where you're publishing one persons opinion discouraging the uptrend run of it's stock markets, primariliy caused by people like him. Rather then bashing the PH economy because it their expected 20x earning isn't returning as fast as they want, why not have better control of your asset managers. You don't make a 7% clip economy run 20% just because you put more money it in. A good economy is not built overnight.

I say the PH economy itself is sound, running a good steady pace even, has the money without the inflows it will still get 6-7-8% for the next 3 years respectively. It would be smarter equity wise to hold and wait for the return, rather then drown it in cash.

What the PH needs is more direct foreign investment in infrastracture and not equity. Investing in equity puts more money in the hands of the rich, direct investment truly puts people to work.

PH: Correct your foreign ownership laws, decrease the red tape and control that price of electricity.

-- Market Insider

MARCH 25, 2013 11:11 A.M.

Fran_co wrote:

That 20% growth of Thailand is due to a very low base of comparison due to the massive flooding the year before. Going forward, the Thai government itself is only looking for 5% growth. For the benefit of readers, please make sure you don't mislead, intentional or not.

Also, the PSEi reached 25x in 1993 and 21x in 2003 while India and Indonesia reached 25x and 20x earnings, respectively, on their way to investment grade in recent years.

MAY 6, 2013 8:01 P.M.

123 wrote:

@hmmm.................thanks for the inspiring words my friend.

JULY 10, 2013 4:35 P.M.

Hmm wrote:

I'm back, 7.8% this quarter and IMF upgraded PH growth to 7% this year even better then my expectations. How's Thailand doing? No disrspect to their economy...just pointing out how wrong this fund manager was and i bet he is part of the curent outflows, which as it looks, doesn't matter.

JULY 13, 2013 11:45 P.M.

123 wrote:

@hmm.......thank you very much for the praise to our economy and yes its really far beyond to your expectations about the economic growth....i just hope that our governments specially the officials,had their eyes open and starting to work for the country's progress.

About Emerging Markets Daily

Emerging markets have been synonymous with growth, but the outlook for individual nations is constantly changing. Countries from Brazil and Russia to Turkey face challenges including infrastructure bottlenecks, credit issues and political shifts. Barrons.com’s Emerging Markets Daily blog analyzes news, data and research out of emerging markets beyond Asia to help readers navigate the investment landscape.

Barron’s veteran Dimitra DeFotis has been blogging about emerging market investing since traveling to India and Turkey. Based in New York, she previously wrote for Barron’s about U.S. equity investing, including cover stories and roundtables on energy themes. Dimitra was among the first digital journalists at the Chicago Tribune and started her career as a police reporter at the Daily Herald in the Chicago suburbs. Dimitra holds degrees from the University of Illinois and Columbia University, where she was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow in the business and journalism schools. She studies multiple languages and photography.