UFC 167: Main Card Predictions

Tim Elliott (10-3-1) vs. Ali Bagautinov (11-2)

There are bigger stars on the undercard than Elliott-Bagauntinov, but flyweights almost always bring it and there’s no question the duo has what it takes to set the PPV off on a positive note through their pairing. Bagautinov is a heavy-handed Russian with the ability to stop an opponent with strikes or a submission, while Elliott has similar skills but relies more on technique than power. If he can keep his chin tucked, Elliott should be able to put Bagautinov on his back and work from the top en route to a win. Bagautinov is explosive early but is at risk of fading as time ticks off the clock. / PREDICTION: Tim Elliott def. Ali Bagautinov via Split Decision

Josh Koscheck (17-7) vs. Tyron Woodley (11-2)

Frankly, this fight could turn out to be a complete snoozer. Koscheck and Woodley have been perfectly content in the past to ride out decision victories on the ground thanks to their polished wrestling ability, so three rounds of blanketing might be in store come Saturday night. However, taking a different approach, it’s very possible a stalemate on the grappling front will result in a more stand-up than expected. “Kos” has a slight edge when it comes to power/precision and tends to fare well in similar situations, though don’t discount Woodley’s ability to land a stiff blow or two catching Koscheck off-guard based on the former Strikeforce star’s more creative approach to striking. / PREDICTION: Josh Koscheck def. Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision

Rory MacDonald (15-1) vs. Robbie Lawler (21-9)

People keep talking about Lawler as a huge test for MacDonald but I don’t see it. Though “Ruthless” Robbie packs dynamite in his gloves, he lacks offense outside of his knockout power. He’s not going to pick MacDonald apart from the outside, take him down, or seek a submission. Rather, Lawler will march straight forward throwing strikes with bad intent and hope one connects. While that approach has earned him plenty of wins, MacDonald an intellectual fighter and won’t be caught in a stand-up war. Expect MacDonald to get Lawler on the ground as soon as possible and start working from the top. More than half of Lawler’s career losses have come via submission and “Ares” is fairly slick on the mat. / PREDICTION: Rory MacDonald def. Robbie Lawler via Submission

Rashad Evans (18-3-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (28-13-1)

If Evans-Sonnen didn’t like each other this would have been a much more intriguing bout based on their shared ability to spew smack. Unfortunately, they’re chummy and neither has offered up any harsh or entertaining criticism of the other aimed at selling the scrap. Moving on to the match-up, whatever juju Sonnen used to beat Mauricio Rua in his last fight isn’t likely to come into play again. Evans has vastly superior stand-up and his wrestling is strong enough to neutralize Sonnen’s main means of attack. Though I don’t feel Evans is dynamic enough to finish Sonnen, his speed and technique should make it easy pickings in terms of plodding his way to a favorable scenario involving scorecards. / PREDICTION: Rashad Evans def. Chael Sonnen via Unanimous Decision

Georges St-Pierre (24-2) vs. Johny Hendricks (15-1)

Some meetings in the Octagon market themselves and such is certainly the case when it comes to GSP’s title-defense against Hendricks. St-Pierre’s durability has been questioned ever since losing via TKO to Matt Serra, while his wrestling has been praised as the best in the division and come into play en route to plenty of decision nods. Meanwhile, Hendricks’ knockout power has spelled doom for a number of game adversaries and he was an accomplished amateur wrestler. When it comes to picking a winner, it’s a heart vs. head thing. On one hand, the notion of St-Pierre getting knocked out is enough to cause some slight salivation because he’s been so good for so long and Hendricks is as classy as they come. On the other, “Rush” is a fantastic fighter with the skills to beat any opponent. Ultimately, St-Pierre’s athleticism should be too much for Hendricks’ brutish approach. He’s faster and has more tools to work with, plus St-Pierre has put plenty of high-level wrestlers on their back during his reign at the top. / PREDICTION: Georges St-Pierre def. Johny Hendricks via Unanimous Decision

Any MMA fan missing UFC 167 undoubtedly has an excellent excuse, as the card itself is as attractive as any lineup the organization has produced this year. The show is topped by a tilt between longtime welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre and heavy-handed wrestler Johny Hendricks with other notable bouts like Rory MacDonald-Robbie Lawler and Rashad Evans-Chael Sonnen destined for the PPV portion of the festivities. Here’s a look at how the evening’s featured efforts may end up unfolding… (Photos by USA Today Sports Images)

I think you’re underestimating lawler a bit while he certainly does have his weaknesses his stand up got a lot more technical in his last few fights. It was really good in his last fight against Voelker and the fact that he sprawled and finished Kos in that position shows that he can defend the TD much better at WW than MW. Robbie is used to fighting bigger wrestlers and the additional strength they bring. I don’t think Rory brings that strength as much as the wrestlers Lawler faced at MW.

Robbie can defend the takedown all day but he has also shown to be at a disadvantage to more polished strikers, and I think Rory is much more polished even without the big power shots he will probably stay away from Lawler and be content to jab and look for a takedown to get a UD. That said I REALLY hope Lawler wins this one.

You may be right but Lawler’s footwork looked really good against Voelker. The way he set up that head kick was very smart and shows that his stand up improved technically. Against Rory he has to use an opposite stance and bait him with the jab to counter with big shots while closing the distance.