Thursday, February 04, 2010

Thursday night

Here are the demographics used in the sample versus a more accurate picture of the composition of the GOP as compiled from various sources.

Demographic

Sample Size

Sample Pct.

Actual

Men

1125

56.16%

52%

Women

878

43.83%

48%

White

1787

89.21%

89%

Other

216

10.78%

11%

18-29

178

8.88%

15%

30-44

418

20.86%

26%

45-59

664

33.15%

37%

60+

743

37.09%

22%

Northeast

217

10.83%

18.60%

South

846

42.24%

36.32%

Midwest

437

21.82%

25.45%

West

503

25.11%

19.63%

Source: Daily Kos/Research 2000,

Gallup, Pew Research Trust, CNN

In short, the Daily Kos poll has a bias that oversamples Southerners who are more extreme in their views (the poll also drastically undersamples the generally more moderate Republicans in the Northeast by over eight percentage points) and thus paints the GOP as more extreme than they really are. The Daily Kos poll is an inaccurate reflection of the national GOP but likely an accurate picture of the views of its Southern base which nonetheless does account for over one third of its electoral strength nationally. And that Southern base plagues the national GOP to a degree that cannot be overstated.