Before the advent of the personal computer, mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals in major corporations. Programming was hard and time consuming. Computers were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

In 1965, my first job was as a numerical control FORTRAN programmer in the aerospace industry. The 7094 IBM mainframe was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. As manager of software development in Investment Banking at Merrill Lynch on Wall Street . I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

In the late 1970s, personal computers were considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. All of a sudden, one could do simple calculations without having to write complex programs. Lotus 1-2-3 had limited programming features (“macros”). I immediately converted FORTRAN financial programs to spreadsheets with graphics capabilities. As a consultant to major domestic and foreign corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.

MATRIX OF DECEIT

A matrix is just a table (rectangular array) of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud.

Actual, raw unadjusted exit poll results are changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gunin detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008.

2000

Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. But the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)

Total

Gore

Bush

Nader

Other

13,108

6,359

6,065

523

161

48.51%

46.27%

3.99%

1.23%

2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate

Voted ’96

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

New/DNV

17,732

16%

52%

43%

5%

Clinton

48,763

44%

87%

10%

3%

Dole

35,464

32%

7%

91%

2%

Perot/other

8,866

8%

23%

65%

12%

Total cast

110,825

100%

50.68%

45.60%

3.72%

110,825

56,166

50,536

4,123

2000 National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote)

Voted ’96

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

New/DNV

18,982

18%

52%

43%

5%

Clinton

42,183

40%

87%

10%

3%

Dole

35,856

34%

7%

91%

2%

Other

8,437

8%

23%

65%

12%

Total

105,458

100%

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

105,458

51,004

50,456

3,998

2004

The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate by 6 million votes. The True Vote Model (assuming a plausible estimate of returning 2000 election voters) indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.

2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)

Kerry

Bush

Other

13,660

7,064

6,414

182

share

51.71%

47.0%

1.3%

2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll

(implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)

2000

Voted

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

23,116

18.38%

57%

41%

2%

Gore

48,248

38.37%

91%

8%

1%

Bush

49,670

39.50%

10%

90%

0%

Other

4,703

3.74%

64%

17%

19%

Total

125,737

100%

51.8%

46.8%

1.5%

125,737

65,070

58,829

1,838

2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll

(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)

2000

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Alive

Turnout

DNV

20,790

17%

54%

44%

2%

–

–

Gore

45,249

37%

90%

10%

0%

48,454

93%

Bush

52,586

43%

9%

91%

0%

47,933

110%

Other

3,669

3%

64%

14%

22%

3,798

97%

Total

122,294

100%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

100,185

94%

59,031

62,040

1,223

2008

Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). He won the State Exit Poll aggregate 58-40% (a 23 million vote margin). But the Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)

Obama

McCain

Other

17,836

10,873

6,641

322

100%

61.0%

37.2%

1.8%

2008 Final National Exit Poll

(forced to match recorded vote)

GENDER

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Male

47%

49%

49%

2%

Female

53%

56%

43%

1%

Share

100%

52.87%

45.59%

1.54%

Votes(mil)

131.463

69.50

59.94

2.02

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll

(plausible returning 2004 voter mix)

Voted

2004

2008

Exact match to TVM & unadj state exit pollls

2004

Implied

Votes

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

–

17.66

13.43%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

50.18%

57.11

43.44%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

44.62%

50.78

38.63%

17%

82%

1%

Other

5.20%

5.92

4.50%

72%

26%

2%

Total

131.46

100%

58.00%

40.35%

1.65%

Votes

131.463

76.25

53.04

2.17

Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll

(forced to match recorded vote with

Voted

2004

2008

impossible returning 2004 voters)

2004

Implied

Votes

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

–

17.09

13%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

42.53%

48.64

37%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

52.87%

60.47

46%

17%

82%

1%

Other

4.60%

5.26

4%

72%

26%

2%

Total

131.46

100%

52.87%

45.60%

1.54%

Votes

131.463

69.50

59.95

2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Consider the following matrices (tables). He wins all plausible scenarios.

The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Theoretical EV: the product sum of state win probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.