October 27, 2016

Poll: Clinton lead over Trump in NM is 5

A new poll shows that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just 5 percent in New Mexico.

The survey by ZiaPoll, a new pollster this election cycle, shows Clinton leads 45 percent to 40 percent over Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee earning the support of 9 percent of likely voters, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails at 2 percent.

The poll is in sharp contrast to polls of other surrounding states, which shows Clinton behind by a handful of points in deep-red Texas and in a very close race, possibly even ahead, in Arizona.

In the press release announcing the results, the pollster said Trump was actually leading among voters between 18-34 years old. Still, the pollster warned of “extrapolating smaller sample counts to the overall population.”

In other words, beware of small sample sizes.

The results among 18-24 year olds, for example, is just 100 voters.

Another result in the subsamples shows Clinton leading Trump just 52 percent to 39 percent among Hispanic or Latino voters, much smaller than in many surveys. Johnson receives the support of 6 percent, and Stein did not get one Hispanic or Latino respondent say they would vote for her out of the 408 surveyed.

The poll also looked at the Secretary of State race. In that race, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver leads Republican Nora Espinoza 51 percent to 39 percent. Toulouse Oliver is the Bernalillo County Clerk, while Espinoza is a State Representative.

The poll of 1,899 likely voters was conducted on Oct. 24 using Interactive Voice Response (or IVR) for voters with landlines. For those with cell phones, they are asked to call-in to complete the same survey (federal law prohibits calling cell phones using IVR technology). The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.25 percent.

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New Mexico’s Republican gubernatorial candidate wants the U.S. Department of Justice to hold 2016 presidential candidate and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accountable for an email scandal that dates back to nearly a decade ago. Without offering many details, U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, who is giving up his congressional seat to run for New Mexico governor, said in a radio interview last week he does not think the DOJ—specifically U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions—is doing enough to take Clinton to task for the way she reportedly handled classified email messages while Secretary of State.

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Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The former founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew was also a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.
Matthew has appeared as a panelist for the Society of Professional Journalists’ New Mexico Chapter’s panel on covering New Mexico politics and the legislature.
A native New Mexican from Rio Rancho, Matthew’s family has been in New Mexico since the 1600s.