Let’s go back to July—sunshine, summertime, hockey at rest. In those weeks (through mid-August) I compiled my RE (reasonable expectations), creating a line in the sand for performance. REs project players into specific roles and then project the boxcars based on previous seasons, by player. How is everyone doing so far? Let’s have a look, beginning with the skill forwards.

CONNOR MCDAVID

McDavid is a little shy (6.5 points) and I will blame the lack of quality linemates. If you look at the men who have played alongside CMD, the number of 5×5 minutes spent with ineffectives is significant. Want proof? McDavid is scoring 2.67 with Leon Draisaitl, 1.43 with Jordan Eberle. And this is in over 335 minutes with each man. If you are wondering why Leon is playing on RW, wonder no more. The missing 6.5 points are back there during the Eberle period.

LEON DRAISAITL

Leon blew my projection out of the water (by 18 points, so far), but there were good reasons to slow play projected progress. I didn’t see Leon and CMD spending as much time together as we have seen so far, and guessed low on his power play. The main point is this: Leon Draisaitl is off the grid compared to what would have been a reasonable projection based on his own history. He could hit 30 goals!

JORDAN EBERLE

It has been a struggle for most of this season for Eberle, who is off my projection by 11 points so far this year. It isn’t just bad luck, because I can’t think of a litany of examples where he has been robbed by the goaltender. Jordan Eberle is 27 in May, and my RE for next year is going to run about 8-10 points lower than this season. We may have seen the best of him.

MILAN LUCIC

He is off the pace by more than any Oilers skill forward (12 points) and ML’s even-strength troubles are even more pronounced. Chemistry is a thing, and Lucic doesn’t seem to have any with other roster players. I think Leon is a reasonable partner, perhaps we will see that for a time. As it is, Jesse Puljujarvi has been his only effective linemate 5×5, and that in a very small sample size. Power-play numbers are strong.

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS

Nuge is well below par (my RE would have him with 37 points now, so he is 11 points off) and is struggling badly. Facing the tough opposition and scoring at evens should be his role by now, and the only real defense I can offer is his lack of quality linemates (at times) this year. Much younger than Eberle, his career scoring is in the ditch over the last two seasons.

PATRICK MAROON

Maroon, like Draisaitl, has busted the RE with his 97 time. My projection would have him at 21 points, so he is five to the better, including nine additional goals. He is cooling off now, but has enjoyed a very strong season and could be in for a major pay increase based on this current run. Edmonton has to temper their enthusiasm, 97 is going to turn a lot of wingers into millionaires.

BENOIT POULIOT

The most devastating fall from what RE projected comes from Mr. Pouliot. He is 21 points off what I would have projected through 50 games, and is having such a difficult season it is doubtful BP has trade value at this time. Which might be a blessing, since he was a damned good hockey player not so long ago.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

He is off by four points (or was, at the time of demotion) and that isn’t anything to go crazy about. What we should be monitoring is his AHL performance (11gp, 2-5-7) over the coming weeks. He needs to post 1/1 AHL in my opinion, in order to be seriously considered for a recall this season.

Tomorrow: the rest of the forwards.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

C Connor McDavid—I think Peter Chiarelli should be making a list of possible hires who can play on CMD’s wing. Maybe look for talented centers who can play wing and make under $4 million, who are also under control through the end of the decade. We are still looking for his Kurri.

R Leon Draisaitl—At this point, we might want to start talking about how much money LD’s season is costing the Oilers. Man, it would have been nice to sign him after a 45-point season. As it is, there is no way to move him from the CMD line, unless something drastic happens. The Oilers simply don’t have an effective scoring RW.

R Jordan Eberle—He has two years left on his deal after this one, and I have a growing sense Eberle will spend the last two years in another NHL city. If a man ever needed a hot streak, it is this player. This team badly needs 14 more goals from Eberle in the final 27 games. Seriously.

L Milan Lucic—It is important to make the distinction between players who were and were not brought into the plan by the current general manager. Put simply, Milan Lucic is a made man. He needs to be better, but his future on this club is certain.

C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—In 55 games last season, he scored 34 points. This year, in 55 games, has 26 points. Nuge!!!?? Wake up!!!! His shooting percentage is way down (he should have four more goals even using 10 percent as the line in the sand), but the still young Nuge is a shadow of his former self. He will be here in the fall, but may not complete his contract in Edmonton.

L Patrick Maroon—He hasn’t scored in 10 games, and will probably be moved from the McDavid line soon. Doesn’t matter. He is going to be here longer than the Steve Austin’s.

L Benoit Pouliot—At this point, best guess is probably right back here in the fall, 3L. Jujhar Khaira might push him to 4L at some point in 2017-18.

R Jesse Puljujarvi—He will be in the starting lineup come the fall, and is a big part of the future. The only real question left is his offensive outer marker.

TRADE DEADLINE

Brandon Davidson is in play, in my opinion. Does he get you that needed second-round pick? Suspect the return will be something in the 75-90 range, we will see.

Jordan Eberle has moved down the TSN trade list, from No. 7 to No. 11. I don’t think Edmonton moves him until summer, but the idea of a less expensive, less proven, C-R who shoots the puck a lot in exchange may have appeal. Eberle could end the speculation with a strong conclusion to the season and we may in fact see it.

Radim Vrbata heads a list of reasonably affordable deadline names for RW. Adding a vet to play alongside on of the big three C’s opens up all kinds of possibilities on this roster. Lee Stempniak and P.A. Parenteau are also in the Have Gun, Will Travel category.

Centers are on the wish list, don’t know that the Oilers have enough to get Martin Hanzal, but Brian Boyle would be interesting and Tyler Johnson would be thrilling.

It is tough to gauge this trade deadline, PC seems to have another buy and sell fortnight on his hands. I will guess three trades (Davidson out for a third-round pick, Reto Berra in for a sixth-round pick, the rights to Bogdan Yakimov and a fifth-round pick out for Shawn Matthias) this time.

MCDAVID’S KURRI

We are now 100 games in the Connor McDavid’s NHL career, and we can reach some conclusions. Although CMD can play with anyone, Leon Draisaitl seems to be the best match. His LWs seem to run hot and cold, and that includes current winger Patrick Maroon. What does it all mean? Peter Chiarelli is still looking. I reached out Brock Otten this morning, and asked him for the names of CMDs wingers in Erie.

Brock Otten: Played a lot with Debrincat and Nick Betz, and with Remi Elie after the Otters acquired him. And 2014, (had to do a bit of research because I couldn’t remember), he played a lot with Andre Burakovsky.

Okay, that gives us four names to look at as possible style matches for 97. DeBrincat is well known to us, a 5.07 scorer who is a brilliant offensive player. Nick Betz (6.04, 220) is a power winger whose offense appears to occur in front of the net. Speed is mentioned as average in scouting reports and that is probably what is holding him back (he is currently on his second ECHL team at this time).

Remi Elie is a good skater with some PF elements to his game, although size (6.01, 210) is only average for a Chiarelli winger. He is currently plodding along (42gp, 6-14-20) in his second AHL season. Andre Burakovsky is perhaps the most interesting name, he is a burner who stands 6.03, 200. He can play either wing and has a fantastic set of hands.

That’s your match, ladies and germs. Size, speed, skill. I think the Oilers will draft that player in the first round this summer, and pursue that player via trade at the deadline and in summer again. If they can find someone who has real chem with Connor McDavid, sky’s the limit. Young 97 is already leading the league in scoring, can you imagine what happens when he finds his Kurri?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with some of my favorite guests! Beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Is Brandon Davidson heading out of town? To make room for Kris Russell?

LT, you were right about the importance of 2nd round picks, I apologise for my stance that they’re a crap shoot that can be replaced with astute NCAA and undrafted signings.

My epiphany came this morning when your beloved Bruins fired Julien, prompting me to realise that the Bruins also value the 2nd rounder they have coming as ‘compensation’ when Julien is announced HC of the Golden Ker-niggets.

That Sweeney and Neely – two cunning foxes if ever there were.

Also, anybody else think Nylander looks like Joffrey Baratheon? Yet another reason to despise the Leafs. As if we needed one.

Jethro Tull:
LT, you were right about the importance of 2nd round picks, I apologise for my stance that they’re a crap shoot that can be replaced with astute NCAA and undrafted signings.

My epiphany came this morning when your beloved Bruins fired Julien, prompting me to realise that the Bruins also value the 2nd rounder they have coming as ‘compensation’ when Julien is announced HC of the Golden Ker-niggets.

That Sweeney and Neely – two cunning foxes if ever there were.

Also, anybody else think Nylander looks like Joffrey Baratheon?Yet another reason to despise the Leafs.As if we needed one.

Completely off today’s topic, but i am still catching up on yesterday’s threads (daily morning ritual). Regarding the expansion draft, how much time is there between when teams must submit their protected/unprotected lists and when Las Vegas must make their picks?

– Is it a few hours, few days? I am curious how much time they will have to fully analyze their choices. They can plan all they want but projected vs actual protection lists will differ.
– This will also impact how much time LV has to assess potential deals that keep unprotected players from being selected.
– Is there a trade freeze during this time? Could a team leave someone unprotected, but trade this person before Las Vegas makes their picks? That would be awkward.
– Are LV’s non 23 man roster players going to be on a shared AHL team? That sucks for development so maybe that impacts the types of bottom roster players they select

The wish list for a RW for the first line: one who can keep up with McD on transitions and keep the defense backing up into the high slot, has a quick release/one timer, and doesn’t mind driving to the slot without the puck.

LW: A heavier body to win some board battles and stand in the paint. Relatively good feet.

It really is easy when you don’t actually have to name names or make real trades!!!

My epiphany came this morning when your beloved Bruins fired Julien, prompting me to realise that the Bruins also value the 2nd rounder they have coming as ‘compensation’ when Julien is announced HC of the Golden Ker-niggets.

I think we’re seeing a couple of effects going on with some of the forwards this year.
1) Some of them defer to McDavid so much, I wonder if they’re not losing confidence in their own skills. Even Draisaitl at times looks like he’s in a rush to just throw the puck in 97s direction to see what will happen.
2) I feel like Nuge and Ebs are probably feeling the pressure a little more with Hall gone. Those three were the key cogs to the main rebuild, and I think Hall being the one traded, rattled the other two. Rather than being relaxed and confident, they’re trying to hard to impress and it’s just not working.
3) Lucic is the classic case of a player signing a big contract in a new city and under-performing.

But if this team is going to do anything the rest of this year, those mentioned in 2 & 3 better get better. Not going anywhere with only one line doing most of the heavy lifting.

monsterbater:
Completely off today’s topic, but i am still catching up on yesterday’s threads (daily morning ritual). Regarding the expansion draft, how much time is there between when teams must submit their protected/unprotected lists and when Las Vegas must make their picks?

– Is it a few hours, few days? I am curious how much time they will have to fully analyze their choices. They can plan all they want but projected vs actual protection lists will differ.
– This will also impact how much time LV has to assess potential deals that keep unprotected players from being selected.
– Is there a trade freeze during this time? Could a team leave someone unprotected, but trade this person before Las Vegas makes their picks? That would be awkward.
– Are LV’s non 23 man roster players going to be on a shared AHL team? That sucks for development so maybe that impacts the types of bottom roster players they select

1. I think it is a couple of days, will check later if someone doesn’t come along.
2. The window to talk trades with other teams may be open as early as March 1.
3. No trade freeze, something I suggested go into force right after the trade deadline ended. NHL protects established teams.
4. They should have enough to post their own AHL team, perhaps a shared ECHL club will be the way to go.

Good. I hated that rule. Imagine being let go from one job, a common occurrence in the oil patch when projects are finished, receiving your pink slip, going to work for another company and your old employer demanding compensation from the new one!

No long term fix, but if Vanek fits, maybe a 2 year deal for around $4 mill or so to play with McDavid. Winning makes everything better and cheaper, so if they go on a run and Vanek fits with McDavid, perhaps he solves the 1 RW need. Makes it easier to move Eberle in off season as well if needed to fill long term 2 RD PP need.

I have faith (have to I suppose) that both Lucic and Eberle will shine in the playoffs. No idea why, just faith. And if we add Vanek and Franson, then we have some depth, added skill and improved PP and the ability to play Draisatl at C, and move him up when needed (unicorns!). And also means JP comes back for playoff run, allowing for the possibility of his skill adding to the team just in time.

As a rental, I would prefer Vrbata or Vanek. Maybe Vrbata more because he is definitely a shoot first player, which this team and McDavid really needs. He may have lost a step or two but he is smart and skilled.
Long term, Tyler Johnson would be an interesting add. Just don’t know if the Oilers can afford the assets to acquire him or his next contract. He is versatile enough to play right wing with McDavid or center a second scoring line.

JJS:
The wish list for a RW for the first line:one who can keep up with McD on transitions and keep the defense backing up into the high slot, has a quick release/one timer, and doesn’t mind driving to the slot without the puck.

LW:A heavier body to win some board battles and stand in the paint.Relatively good feet.

It really is easy when you don’t actually have to name names or make real trades!!!

Oilers are still looking for that right winger, IF they want to move Drai back to center. Seems to me they have plenty of left wingers on the roster right now that fit your description.

Lowetide: .431 in 28 games is 6-6-12, JP went 1-7-8. I don’t think his season was off my much, to be honest. They had to send him down, but Puljujarvi did a lot of good things with Edmonton early.

Yeah, I’m not overly concerned, but 1 goal in 28 games does give me pause. I’m not willing to condemn a rookie (who’s also a foreigner) getting tossed into the NHL over his first 28 games, but 1 goal isn’t what I hoped for.

If that is all Davidson gets then I would keep him and take my chances on the expansion draft (or go 4-4-1 and expose Eberle if he has not been traded).

We can agree to differ on whether restocking the prospect cupboard is a “big damn deal”. We can agree value contracts are vital. Not sure if we agree that 2017 / 18 sees our 5 – 7 year SC window open. We need value contracts like Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Benning, at a push Caggiula, who are plug and play. Waiting 3 – 5 years for the prospects to ripen is wasting the window. If the deal is there use the picks to get players who can help now. Same applies to Davidson (who I really like and hope we can find a way to keep).

I was banging the drum for third line center in August. Today….. sure,still huge help but versatility should e considered as next year will allow another summer of tuning and much more likely to have our three centres back in position.

Nuge, just do t know what to say but rooting for him. As is he goes third line center next season.

Jessie P comes on strong at right wing. Now who would be our best trade target? Lt I like your consideration of someone who can go center or wing.

Eberle – love him but but but. Maybe the only thing wrong with him is his salary? Change that to 4m and change expectations and suddenly he’s doing great. Why can’t contracts for players contain base plus bonus. Onsuderations? Protect both parties.

Bohologo:
LT, just so I understand clearly: finding Jari means someone who can put the puck in the net quickly and accurately, correct? To keep blueliners and goalmen honest when facing a 2 on 1?

Or does finding Jari mean finding a defensive conscience to allow 97 to cheat a bit for offense?

Or both?

Or something I’ve missed, viz., someone to head-punch Tikkanen on the bench when his yapping gets to be too much, even for his own team-mates?

I meant more thinking the game along with 97. In what might have been the biggest game in franchise history (they were handed the Stanley for the first time after the game), Edmonton got the first goal because chemistryhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8GIsX26Stw

Lowetide: I meant more thinking the game along with 97. In what might have been the biggest game in franchise history (they were handed the Stanley for the first time after the game), Edmonton got the first goal because chemistryhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8GIsX26Stw

Many thanks for the insight! What a pass from Jari. When Lafontaine scored those two goals in the third I just about fainted-not sure if I needed to relive that moment. That Islanders team was terrifying in its greatness (including Goring’s helmet).

But I submit it was the 1-0 victory on the road in game one that was a bigger game. That suggested they could actually beat the Islanders.

If that is all Davidson gets then I would keep him and take my chances on the expansion draft (or go 4-4-1 and expose Eberle if he has not been traded).

We can agree to differ on whether restocking the prospect cupboard is a “big damn deal”. We can agree value contracts are vital. Not sure if we agree that 2017 / 18 sees our 5 – 7 year SC window open. We need value contracts like Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Benning, at a push Caggiula, who are plug and play. Waiting 3 – 5 years for the prospects to ripen is wasting the window. If the deal is there use the picks to get players who can help now. Same applies to Davidson (who I really like and hope we can find a way to keep).

I second this opinion.

Preface by saying I am far from an expert on draft and develop. However

With the low perecentages of finding NHL players in later rounds and even lower percentage of those players actually being good, why trade in a good player for another long shot?

I really dislike the idea of trading Davidson for not much in return. It’s so hard to find size and skill like that. I realise there is a logjam back there, but losing him after watching him start to blossom will sting. I really like how he helps direct traffic in the defensive zone. A guy like Benning is a better player because of him.

Lloyd B.:
It is becoming increasingly difficult to continue to be a Boston Bruins fan.2nd of course.

Listening to the Sweeny presser. He clearly states that Julien was a Chiarelli hire and he had to work with him.

The interim guy he hired, Sweeny worked with in the minors.Considers him a candidate for the full time head coaching job.

He says Julien wasn’t delivering enough wins and he wasn’t prepared to ride out the rest of the season with Julien as they weren’t likely to make the playoffs.

Then he says the new guys opportunity to be the head coach isn’t going to be connected to the amount of wins and making the playoffs!

Talking out of both sides of his mouth at the same time.Good grief !

So aggravating. But I maintain Chiarelli trading Seguin came first from Jacobs and Neely. I suspect this is the same issue. Certainly Sweeney would have had to get Jacobs’ blessing to fire Julien with 2 years remaining on his contract.

dustrock:
Regarding Davidson, I guess if Chia is getting indications from McPhee that he’s interested in Davidson, maybe he tries to move him for a 2nd.

But I would hope Davidson, as an actual NHL defenceman, would get you more than a 2nd round pick.Since cheap, effective d-men seem hard to come by these days.

Maybe I’ll just keep reaching for that rainbow.

Moving a player for a pick because he might get claimed by LV is a fool’s errand. It does not solve the problem. Just means losing Davidson and Reinhart and only getting back whatever your return was for Davidson.

IMO, the lack of any reasonable levels of offense 5×5 playing without Connor (and I suspect Draisaitl coming back to earth if taken off the McDavid line) is cause for real concern.

Many players are well off their established paces as well.

So it would behoove our coaching staff to take the time during the break and adjust the offensive systems that seems to work only when the opposition defense is over-covering our generational player.

We’ve assured a playoff spot if we play .500 the rest of the way, so why not take some chances to increase offense, and enough of the safe two-man cycle behind the net and the safe play back to the point.

– the Oilers have the 4th best GA/GP since Jan. 1; a lot to do with Talbot, but that’s still very encouraging

– CMD’s overall offense with Eberle is skewed by the time given to the failed CMD-Lucic-Eberle combination

– CMD-Maroon-Eberle produced a higher GF60 than CMD-Maroon-Draisaitl

– Lucic and Eberle don’t mix; with CMD, GF60 is 1.71; with Nuge, GF60 is 0 (they played 6 minutes with Drai and scored a goal but I’ll leave that out given they’ve played 280 minutes with the other two centers)

It is ironic that a team that drafted three forwards other than McDavid first overall, hit a home run with Eberle and another big fly with Draisaitl, and only drafted Klefbom and Nurse as D-men in the first round over the past decade lacks secondary scoring, isn’t it? I wish it were otherwise, too.

Pouliot: Personal issues and perhaps age affecting focus/conditioning so that his judgment and ability to contribute offensively are hampered?

Lucic: I can think of nothing other than he plays at a slower pace than some of the supporting cast, but looked good with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi.

Hopefully the 5-day break helps heal any lingering wounds. I like the idea of Vrbata as a 1R silver bullet. Frees up Draisaitl to fire up Lucic and reunite the BP/RNH/JE line that has gelled in the past.

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Moving a player for a pick because he might get claimed by LV is a fool’s errand.It does not solve the problem. Just means losing Davidson and Reinhart and only getting back whatever your return was for Davidson.

I don’t know. If we say the value of Davidson is a 2nd round pick and Reinhart is a 4th round pick, then trading Davidson for the 2nd and losing Reinhart is a net loss of a 4th round pick in asset value. Letting Davidson be exposed and losing him is a net loss of a 2nd round pick in asset value.

I think the Oilers would benefit from keeping as much value as possible “protected” from being plucked at the expansion draft. If the Oilers could get a 2018 2nd from a weaker team they could theoretically flip it for a Davidson equivalent next year at the deadline and that player would not be exposed to any expansion draft.

Honestly, with all respect to lowetide, there is far too much made of Eberle’s season. I think the only thing that really makes him stand out so much is that he is one of several underperforming wingers and therefore his offense is missed even more so than it would normally be. Otherwise its not unheard of for high paid offensive guys to have set back seasons. There are literally a dozen examples of high profile players right now, across the league, that have similar production to Eberle or worse (Kopitar, Bergeron, Ladd, Duchene, O’Rielly, Ryan, Sedin x 2, Parise, Okposo, Thornton, Hossa, Statsny, Forsberg, etc, etc, etc).

How many of those names are in trade rumors because of underperformance? How many get ripped apart daily because there is concern that they have nothing to contribute to their teams any longer? Only for Canadian teams and, dare I say, especially in Edmonton, do we see such panic for individual players. The media then feeds off this panic and puts a guy no more likely to be traded than any of the above names on a top 10 trade deadline list. They also strongly contribute to the devaluing of the player as an asset on the open market.

The team is winning despite the lack of production from key guys. We can look at this and pick it apart as a problem that needs to be fixed immediately, or we can look how much more this team actually has to give. That despite being one of the better teams in the Western Conference, we haven’t witnessed the best this team has to offer. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, if these guys are still ghosts of their former selves, then I will be worried.

– Great post LT!. BT says: ” Down the stretch and into the playoffs, if these guys are still ghosts of their former selves, then I will be worried”

– Yes this is the rub. The Oil are comfortably a top-10 team by most metrics: GF/GA/Points/+/-.

– Their D is also top-10, given the depth and ability to play a Gryba/Osterle/Benning/Nurse/Davidson, and not all of them at once: good D development, decent goal production from D. Russel + Larsson have helped enormously

– So we can “afford” to wait and see if Ebs/RNH/Pou round into firm

– As the games get tighter/faster/harder: don’t see Pou and Ebs stepping it up.

– For Chia, the ideal is some tinkering, then playoffs and see how the players react, and you get rid of those that underwelm.

Does this math account for the factor that Davidson’s acquisition cost is lower because of the expansion draft? If Davidson fetches a 2nd now, there is reason to think a player of his ilk would be worth more next year.

Also, you are saying

Davidson = 2nd rounder
Reinhart = 4th rounder? His value has dropped since 16th overall and 33rd were paid for him, but I wouldn’t say his value has fallen that much…a 4th?

I just can’t figure out how pouliot, ebs, and nuge all went this cold. It’s the second year with the same coach.

They aren’t being gifted the best ice time any longer. That’s the problem.

RNH is a guy that hasn’t hit 60 points in a season despite being one of the league leaders in ice time for centers the two seasons before Connor arrived.

I saw a lot of blame towards the bottom of the roster in those years buts it’s become more and more clear that the Oilers top guys during that time aren’t the guys that can carry a hockey team. That’s a big part of the reason the team continued to finish in last place.

Bank Shot: They aren’t being gifted the best ice time any longer. That’s the problem.

RNH is a guy that hasn’t hit 60 points in a season despite being one of the league leaders in ice time for centers the two seasons before Connor arrived.

I saw a lot of blame towards the bottom of the roster in those years buts it’s become more and more clear that the Oilers top guys during that time aren’t the guys that can carry a hockey team. That’s a big part of the reason the team continued to finish in last place.

So RNH eberle and pouliot start struggling more with less elite ice time than usual? And nuge was dynamite at the World Cup, with the same coach.

I have more faith in nuge than the other two, but their dropoff in play is a little ridiculous.

Sorry LT, but Davidson demands way better than a 75-90 pick. What are the odds of drafting a legit NHL dman with a pick in that range? Let alone a 25 year old with more upside and a great contract. We need a legit forward for Davidson.

doritogrande:
Why is Patrick Sharp not being considered as a rental? Sure, he’s a LHS but he’s a cup winner and can score. Unsure about his speed, but could he be an option to spell Maroon on McDavid’s LW?

Regarding the Kurri: We have the 6’3, 200lbs plus speed type. He just needs more time, and even likes blue and white. Burakovski would be a coup, but Washington’s no slouch.

It might be effective to take a look at who played D with 97 in Erie, and figure out if they were the ones getting the puck to him, or possibly if McDavid was feeding a cannon on the power-play.

Just a thought and maybe someone can chime in on the skating of Brett Connolly? He is signed to a one year deal in Washington and he always seem to have to abiity to put the puck in the net. Yea the NHL goals have come slowly but is he a shoot first guy? His lack of apples may support that?
He had a hip injury in junior correct? Is his skating NHL caliber?
Could he possibly be plucked with him playing down the line up in Wash?
He seems to be getting it together?

Nuge at least brings a lot of other facets to the game when he is not scoring. Eberle does not.

But if McLellan really wants to get more scoring than just 97 and 29 then perhaps he needs to face the music and accept that 93 and 14 are complementary scorers, they miss having an offensive force on their line, but when they are given one, they can excel in that role. So put them in position to succeed.

We also get to see if Draisaitl can drive his own line away from McDavid. If we really believe in him, which I think we all do then he should be up for the task with a couple of big vets with good hands and offensive instincts.

Tapdog: He had a hip injury in junior correct? Is his skating NHL caliber?
Could he possibly be plucked with him playing down the line up in Wash?
He seems to be getting it together?

He had a very unusual hip injury in junior if memory serves me right. It was something that required a specialist not easily found in Prince George. That was my memory of that. It didn’t seem to affect his draft rating as he went 6th overall.

I know this was Yzerman’s first pick as a GM, so he reluctantly traded him away.

I honestly remember seeing this kid in bantam and then his first year with the Cougars, and post second WHL season after the hip injuries. I really think that hip injury affected him quite a bit. He just didn’t have that long stride I remember from before.

He would be a good waiver pickup and now that Julien is gone in Boston, maybe he gets a shot.

stush18: So RNH eberle and pouliot start struggling more with less elite ice time than usual? And nuge was dynamite at the World Cup, with the same coach.

I have more faith in nuge than the other two, but their dropoff in play is a little ridiculous.

Don’t really think Nuge was dominant at the World Cup. I would call him solid. He spent most of his time between Gaudreau and McKinnon and I think his job was to be the defensive conscience on that line. I think TMac gave him a push on that line because he was an Oiler. There were other guys there who could have filled the same role. His wingers on the Oilers have been a pretty big step down from the ones he had in the World Cup.

JimmyV1965:
Sorry LT, but Davidson demands way better than a 75-90 pick. What are the odds of drafting a legit NHL dman with a pick in that range? Let alone a 25 year old with more upside and a great contract. We need a legit forward for Davidson.

No need to be sorry, we are just giving our opinions. Davidson’s contract certainly makes him attractive, but his injury history is a concern, and of course teams trading for him need to have room on their protected list (or be willing to expose him).

I think perhaps there can be no Jari. The style of the game and the market for players does not allow it. Elite centres play with replacement-level players. The wingers perform well and either their market value forces them off the team, or they sign a value contract.

In general, I think the organization that acquires actual NHL players with non first round picks ends up better off than the organization that gets to pull another name out of the hat and hope that they turn into something useful.

I wouldn’t let the expansion draft govern this decision, personally. Everyone will lose someone useful. If we trade away one of our useful players in fear of losing him at the expansion draft it just means that a different useful player will get taken.

I thought Hitchcock was on short term contracts because he planned to retire from coaching at the NHL level after this year. I don’t imagine he would be interested in signing another short term contract with Vegas and I think Vegas would only want him for a short period if they were desperate, knowing his desire to retire.

Seems like there’s enough quality coaches out there to be signed for longer.

Side: I thought Hitchcock was on short term contracts because he plans to retire from coaching at the NHL level.I don’t imagine he would be interested in signing another short term contract with Vegas and I think Vegas would only want him for a short period if they were desperate, knowing his desire to retire.

Seems like there’s enough quality coaches out there to be signed for longer.

I wouldn’t think Hitch is a guy you bring in for a young team destined for near last place. He is a guy you bring in to bust balls and reset things. BOS would be a good fit this season if he was interested.

Davidson’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 55gp – 4g – 6a – 10pts – 43PIM
Reinhart’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 29gp – 5g – 6a – 11pts – 26PIM

Roughly the same player at the same stage of development. Reinhart’s younger, bigger, and RFA, with a qualifying offer of $874,125. Davidson’s signed for next season at $1.55m, with a cap hit of $1.425m.

Davidson now has 47 more games of experience than GR at the NHL level. I think McPhee goes for the younger option.

Ducey might be correct. They might finally be focusing on defense, and are sacrificing a bit of offense to do so. Although my eye says that they started the year unlucky and haven’t been able to get any momentum going since.

Davidson’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 55gp– 4g – 6a – 10pts – 43PIM
Reinhart’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 29gp – 5g – 6a – 11pts – 26PIM

Roughly the same player at the same stage of development. Reinhart’s younger, bigger, and RFA, with a qualifying offer of $874,125. Davidson’s signed for next season at $1.55m, with a cap hit of $1.425m.

Davidson now has 47 more games of experience than GR at the NHL level. I think McPhee goes for the younger option.

This is why I’m not too worried we’re gonna lose someone regardless, Las Vegas will take one of these. Opinion might change depending on how the Oil perform in the Playoffs.

LT, with all due respect, What the Heck! are you trading Davidson away for a 2nd round scratch n lose?!.. If this draft is weak then how the heck is a 2nd rounder going to help the club.. sure, davey may be a golden knight in the fall, but let the dominos fall before fretting it.. what happened to keeping the powder dry?..

Only way im trading Davey out is if its for another player (likely older) with some term (prob only 1 year), or maybe shatts (but i dont think the oilers scoring depth is good enough to warrant expensive rentals).. if its just for peanuts, then whats the point?!..

Trading Davidson only makes sense if you want a better forward to protect that you can get for him or as a piece for a great playoff rental (I like this less). Trading him for a 3rd as others have said is really awful.

I admittedly value Reinhart low. Today’s NHL is about speed. Size is great, but it’s nothing without speed. I just don’t see Reinhart ever being more than a softer LH Gryba.

I don’t think he was worth a single 2nd round pick when the Oilers traded for him. With his contract structure I don’t know if he would be worth much more than a 4th at this time, but who knows.

Davidson is now looking like a shadow of himself last year, but he is coming off significant injury so I cut him some slack. It seems there are some here that think Reinhart gets taken over Davidson in expansion. If they are both left unprotected I sure hope that is the case!

It is ironic that a team that drafted three forwards other than McDavid first overall, hit a home run with Eberle and another big fly with Draisaitl, and only drafted Klefbom and Nurse as D-men in the first round over the past decade lacks secondary scoring, isn’t it? I wish it were otherwise, too.

Ducey:
The possibility exists that some of the Oiler’s forwards’ numbers are down because for the first time in their lives they are actually playing defense.

The Oilers system play has improved substantially, but at a cost to those Ryan Jones “leave the zone early” moments.

Yes. Even if they aren’t executing defensively particularly well, and I’m not sure if they are or aren’t, they seem to be focused on defense. Hopefully the offense will come. Although, I would like to see if Maroon-CMD-Eberle can bust a few goals out over the next few games.

Lowetide: No need to be sorry, we are just giving our opinions. Davidson’s contract certainly makes him attractive, but his injury history is a concern, and of course teams trading for him need to have room on their protected list (or be willing to expose him).

– This is exactly right IMO. I doubt a team trades for Davidson to protect him.

– So his value in a trade now isn’t much: If Oil think he’s going to get picked in expansion draft, I doubt other teams don’t see it the same way.

– Losing a “Davidson” is what is supposed to happen. He’s a solid bottom pairing, but at 26 no way his ceiling gets him to top-pairing. He has no offence. Good expansion player. C’est la Vie

It’s not a guarantee, but man does that Benson-focus have the potential of costing them here.

There are times when you just let the computer pick (or me, or LT, or anyone who can read a stats sheet). This was one of those times.

A tad early to be trumpeting Debrincat. Anyone with doubts about Debrincat will not be swayed by junior numbers. The big test will be in the pros. Both picks were high risk, high reward and the story for both hasnt even started .

UFA at the end of the season: Fraser, Hendricks, Gustavsson, Russell, Gryba, Ference
– Until Russell signs with his NMC just before the draft, I won’t worry about it, and leave the hand-wringing to others.

Older players (28-31) with no more than 2 seasons before UFA: Pouliot, Fayne, Letestu, Maroon
– If GMGM wants players like this, he can generally get them as free agents. Older, not having many years of control detracts from most of the players on this list. I can’t see him taking any of them (including Maroon, which shocks me a little bit.)

Leaves the following players available: Brossoit, Pitlick, Kassian, and Reinhart.
– Looking at the list of available goalies, I can’t see Brossoit getting picked. LGK could end up with 3 better goalies than Calgary.

Reinhart is liked by Chiarelli – “has been the Condors best D” quote from last week.

I didn’t get it when Elliotte Friedman was commenting on Davidson on HNIC, but Chiarelli and co. may have decided on the approach for the upcoming draft.

Is Chiarelli’s plan to move Davidson for a 2nd or 3rd in 2017, go 4-4-1 and protect Reinhart for next season, and lose Pitlick or Kassian?

Going off memory here but pretty sure the Avs could find a way to protect Davidson.

– Maybe they are so bad on D that he would be the 3rd D you’d protect, but you have to be pretty bad, or really really constructive on an injury-prone minimal offence 26 year old with a small sample size of being a competent, with selective fancy-stats.

– Hey I’m not saying you can’t find a partner, but I find it doubtful, because you are down Davidson then another guy on your roster, and your not going to get a lot for Davidson IMO…

I think Woodguy addressed the elephant in the room the other day when he posted WoWYs for 4-93-14.

I think that we may have to face the possibility that 93 and 14 are complementary offensive players. They do not drive offense on their own.

They need to ride shotgun to a strong offensive player to score at the rates we are used to. They miss Hall.

Woodguy didn’t do the analysis of RNH and Eberle without Hall with and without Eakins.

i.e. There is an Eakins distortion factor.

Plus, one is making a big deal out of a small sample size this season when Eberle’s shooting percentage has gone to pot. Eberle, I think, is mostly just an extended cold streak.

Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t fit McLellan’s systems. They are telling him to dump the puck in. Here I think there is a fundamental mismatch with the way Nugent-Hopkins should play and the way the coach wants him to play. And the poor results have gotten him on the non-favourite list, and when one has been “blacklisted”, one knows it. He is one of the couple of players that McLellan has publicly shamed.

godot10
Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t fit McLellan’s systems.They are telling him to dump the puck in.Here I think there is a fundamental mismatch with the say Nugent-Hopkins should play and the way the coach wants him to play.And the poor results have gotten him on the non-favourite list, and when one has been “blacklisted”, one knows it.He is one of the couple of players that McLellan has publicly shamed.

I’m not convinced that McLellan has blacklisted him – he sure gives him a great deal of ice time – 3rd on the team for forwards, behind McDavid (21:16) and Draisaitl (18:47,) and the 2nd most for forwards on the penalty kill (103 minutes to Letestu’s 118.)

I think Woodguy addressed the elephant in the room the other day when he posted WoWYs for 4-93-14.
I think that we may have to face the possibility that 93 and 14 are complementary offensive players. They do not drive offense on their own.

Here’s those numbers and a bit more:

Last 6 years, not including this year:

4-93-14
GF/60 2.84
GF% 54.5
CF% 51.0

Not 4-93-14
GF/60 2.51
GF% 45.2
CF% 48.8

This year:
x-93-14
GF/60 1.87
GF% 45.8
CF% 50.1

While their “non-Hall” scoring has slipped, their GF% is about the same as before and the CF% is up marginally.

I don’t think they are a 1.87 GF/60 duo, but not sure if they’ll be a 2.51 under this coach. Notice that while the GF/60 has slipped, the GF% has not, mean less against as well (better goalering is the biggest driver of that)

Given their PDO I expect the GF/60 and GF% to go up a bit.

Miles away from the Hall “with Hall” numbers.

Here something:

Remember when Hall had the best IPP in the league? IPP means Individual Points Percentage. That means the percentage of points a player has for all the goals scored while he was on the ice.

v4ance:
As a thought experiment, let’s say Davidson was on another team and we could acquire him for a 2nd round pick.I feel most on the board would agree to that deal.

So if we treat Davidson like a rental for the playoffs and assume he is lost at the expansion draft, is that still a deal breaker or not?

At this point, Davidson SHOULD be protected. 4-4-1 or bust at the moment for me. Maroon as 30 is not going to be remotely value for money on his next contract. I think Vegas takes Reinhart over Maroon and Pouliot.

One should certainly NOT trade Davidson for a draft pick. (Okay, maybe if it is a first round pick). If they trade him for a forward who is NOT a rental and who is good enough to protect, I can live with that.

Vegas is building for the future as well as the present. I think they take Reinhart over Davidson all day. Davidson shouldn’t be protected for that reason. What will be more interesting is if Chia does 4-4-1 and protects Reinhart….

That got me to thinking about when Rob Vollman came out with his passing data and declared that Hall was the best passer in the NHL.

A higher percentage of his passes turned into goals than any other player..

The problem I could see here is that people were operating on the assumption that IPP isn’t heavily influenced by luck.

Seeing as how it’s basically a box car metric I feel like it has to be heavily luck driven.

At one point Hall was over 100% when it came to individual contribution of on ice points. Now.if that’s just not blind luck then I don’t know what is.

Since those two magical seasons where Hall was an outlier in IPP metric he’s been about a 65 point per year player. He’s one pace for that again this year. That’s a good player, but not anywhere close to being in Malkin/Crosby territory.

So that he scores up with them in a metric is more luck than ability is my guess. I mean he’s still a big driver of production but if you go over his career he probably falls down a bit. If you go by last 3 seasons I bet he drops a tonne.

Gordies Elbow: I’m not convinced that McLellan has blacklisted him – he sure gives him a great deal of ice time – 3rd on the team for forwards, behind McDavid (21:16) and Draisaitl (18:47,) and the 2nd most for forwards on the penalty kill (103 minutes to Letestu’s 118.)

The thing about RNH is that he just isn’t a good producer at even strength. Stats guys were saying that about him in his draft year and if you look at his NHL career as a whole it’s been true.

I think at this point expecting that to get “fixed” is more prayer based than anything.

It is cute that people think Reinhart is going to to be a useful player. He had little to no NHL value when the Oilers traded for him and then he proceeded to underplay expectations.

He’s a defensive defender with mobility issues (he can’t turn). Have all of you forgotten the exhibition game he played? Unless something miraculous has happened in the AHL, he makes Gryba look as agile as a cat. Las Vegas would have to be using Chiarelli’s scouting reports to take him.

Taylor Hall’s IPP% this year is 86.4.You’ll notice that this is even better than what Woodguy quoted.

So like all of these numbers IPP% is subject to variance, but it is stickier than most.It is much less subject to luck than, to pick a stat at random, on-ice save percentage for defensemen.

Hall has one of the best in the league, year in and year out.That is because Taylor Hall is one of the best players in the league.

And captain sweatsuit traded him for a defensive defenseman.

I spoke to Jen Lute Costella a couple of years back, Hall and Pacioretty were peas in a pod in things like being the last person to touch the puck in the D zone and also making the critical pass for a goal (first assist) or scoring. Basically three-in-one players. I don’t think reasonable people would argue with your description of him.

– I agree about Maroon: sure he has played well with McD, but he’s not worth protecting IMO.

– I disagree about Reinhart: they should favour D who are actual NHL players now and there are 50+ D with more promise than Griff that are going to be available (including Davidson)

Vegas would choose Davidson over Reinhart, but I wouldn’t give them that choice, since I would protect Davy. Reinhart or Khaira are the most likely options for Vegas to pick from the Oilers once one protects Davidson. None of the Oilers vets including Maroon are particularly attractive from a value perspective. Vegas can find better expensive vets elsewhere.

McPhee drafted Alzner…so given the choice between Reinhart and Khaira, I think he would seriously consider Reinhart.

If you trade Davidson for a forward who is good enough to protect then they are going 7-3-1, not 4-4-1.

That is my point. The decision tree. Keep Davidson and go 4-4-1. Or trade him for a non-rental forward good enough to protect and go 7-3-1. Don’t trade him for a draft pick (unless it is a 1st round pick, then maybe).

Is there not an argument to be made that we would be wise to keep Davidson specifically so we can lose him for nothing?

We have a few good, young, left-handed defenceman. We have a shortage of forwards. I’m not sure trading Davidson and Letestu* for a 2nd and a 4th is a winning deal.

I haven’t thought very hard on this though. Maybe I’m stupid.

***LV might take Reinhart? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3_ww66EeN8
I can’t see Pouliot tempting them either. They might take Maroon over Davidson, but I doubt they get the chance. Maybe I’m missing someone, I haven’t thought this through very much, but remember: If you trade Davidson for picks you’re dealing him and whoever we lose instead.

All that said I support trading Davidson if we get a roster player. Just makes sense. We’ve a lot of left-handers.

But, solely on the matter of IPP… Doesn’t IPP also indicate the one-lineliness (l-oneliness?) of a team? …in other words how shitty the rest of the team is scoring in comparison?

IPP% is the percentage of points while the player is on the ice. It says nothing about what happens when the player is not on the ice.

So what it says is how responsible the player is for what happens on the ice, i.e. it identifies who is driving the offense.

For instance Patrick Hornquist this year has a very respectable 1.9 pts/60 but an IPP% of only 51%.
Phil Kessel pts/60 is only slightly higher (2.18) but his IPP% is 78. This likely tells us that Hornquist plays with better linemates which is driving his points whereas Kessel is responsible for his own production.

As an aside Conor Sheary is having quite a season. Is he better than we think?

Reinhart will not go at the expansion draft unless he agrees to a two-way. He hasn’t proved anything except in the AHL. WHY THE FK do you think Chia is pumping his tires.
Russell signing big is a mistake of Lucic proportions.

The fluctuations from their career number can be described as “luck”, but most shooters have a baseline and that baseline can vary quite a bit from player to player and that’s universally known as a skill.

Bank Shot: The problem I could see here is that people were operating on the assumption that IPP isn’t heavily influenced by luck.
Seeing as how it’s basically a box car metric I feel like it has to be heavily luck driven.

Like every counting stat is subject to significant variation in smaller samples which is why I posted a 5 year number, which is big enough to show talent.

classict: There was somewhere, months ago, that I was seeing IPP listed as a percentage of the entire team’s points, regardless of if the player was on the ice. Which may lead to some of that confusion.

Your definition is the one I first heard and the one that is actually somewhat useful.

Yeah, THAT IPP was in regards to evaluation Junior Dmen.

“What percentage of a teams goals was the player involved in”

It wasn’t a NHL metric at that time, but David Johnson add his definition of IPP to his site (percentage of points/goal ON ICE) and that’s become the defacto definition for NHL purposes.