Composite projections are here!

In honor of the 60th birthday today of my all-time favorite player, Ron "The Penguin" Cey, here’s a little spring training birthday present for you all… the "wisdom of the crowds" projections for 2008, combining SEVEN different premium and free projection systems from across the web into one handy resource.Click here

to download the Excel spreadsheet, which includes one tab for hitters and one for pitchers.

A few items to note regarding these projections:

* These are not "MY" projections. I didn’t make up these numbers, I just compiled them from various sources. If you think they’re BS or don’t agree with them or whatever, don’t tell me about it, I don’t wanna hear it!

* Don’t ask me whose projections are included here, that wouldn’t be
fair to them. Suffice it to say there are some well-known industry
leaders represented, with some slightly more obscure sources included as well.

* Remember that these are projections, and NOTpredictions. Just because this
projects Rick Ankiel with 28 homers, that doesn’t mean he’ll hit
exactly 28… but that’s the average expectation of several objective
projection systems.

* Pay special attention to the "PROJ" column, which shows how many different projections were used for each guy. The more projections for each guy (7 being the most, 2 being the least), the more confidence you should have in them. I threw out the data for any player who was only included in one projection system.

* Note also that these are essentially "what if" projections for younger players. I doubt anyone is really expecting Juan Miranda to get 455 at-bats, or for Kyle Waldrop to throw 151.0 innings… these are simply projections for what the player would be expected to do given that playing time. For draft purposes, emphasize the guys with 5 or 6 or 7 projections; those with only 2-4 or so are essentially prospects.

OK, I think that covers it. I’ll be doing a mock draft with Siano and some Fantasy Baseball Mafia folks on Sunday night, so look for those results early next week. Man, am I glad there’s some baseball being played in Florida and Arizona! Hope springs eternal!!

I have one question now; Is there a way to generate dollar values based on these projections? I’d love to be able to create another field for an auction value in a 12team mixed 5×5 $260 where you spend about 70% on hitting. Anyone have any ideas?

To the last question, the simple answer is, I really don’t know. I think there are formulas out there for converting stats to dollar values but I don’t know of any in particular I would refer you to, sorry.

Bertil, you are right, I neglected to mention that… since we do not have HBP and SF, the OBP’s are estimates based on this formula:

(H+BB+5)/(AB+BB+10)

That estimates each player with five HBP’s and five sac flies. Obviously that undervalues the OBP ability of guys like Carlos Quentin who get hit by a lot of pitches, but absent any additional data, I wanted to at least provide something. And besides, these are projections so it’s an inexact science anyway!

I take projections with a grain of salt, but it shows how owners are negligent with how one values SP; especially reaching for value that could be grabbed in the later rounds, with “blue collar” pitching who really should be slotted to their true value. With the common factors such as a pitcher about 3.50 ERA, 150K’s, 15 Wins and a 1.25 WHIP is only four pitchers (according to your spreadsheet). And there’s only 6 closers with superior values (35 Saves, 3.50 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 75Ks). Removing slightly one of these values, they become very comparable. I won’t say someone like Santana, if you can get him, you pass, but it shows, you can get your hitting a lot better than your pitching. And boy, it shows that how much we love to gamble on pitching.

Hey BT, obviously there are some guys on this list who have pretty much already “arrived: Bedard, Chris Young and, K’s aside, Chien-Meng Wang. I think Young is capable of big things if he stays healthy.

Of the guys lower on the list, King Felix is of course very promising, and Ian Snell has shown great ability although he’s on a weaker team so the wins might not reflect his continued improvement. And Harden would be a big pick if he could ever stay healthy.

The two guys that leaves who I think are most notable are Blanton and Greinke. I think they are the two most likely to provide the best ROI… they might not be the best of the bunch statistically, but they’ll provide the best value relative to the cost of acquisition. Greinke is still being extremely undervalued in mock drafts, going into the late teens and early 20’s in 15-team drafts. If his strong finish from last year is real, he could be the guy.

Thanks for doing this! I have been contemplating organizing an average of projections for years, but am basically too lazy or too busy. Would love to have Shandler, B. James, etc. and see how they pan out.

One thing that still has yet to be done is accountability. Let’s look at projections from last year and see who was most effective and who was way off the mark! If somebody was particularly accurate, it would validate paying for projections.

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