Most observers believe the White House and Congress will protect big ticket items identified as NASA priorities in the 2013 budget being submitted today, including the Space Launch System -- seen here in an artist's conception. SLS includes a heavy-lift rocket being developed in Huntsville. (NASA)

By Lee Roop and Kenneth KesnerTimes Staff Writers

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- President Barack Obama sends his 2013 budget proposal to Congress today, and Huntsville's defense and aerospace communities will be watching to see where the expected spending cuts will fall.

Overall, the new budget predicts a $1.3 trillion deficit for the ongoing fiscal year. That's according to draft budget documents leaked to the Wall Street Journal and confirmed Friday by the White House.

An August memo from the head of the Office of Management and Budget to federal department heads signaled what's coming.

NASA received $18.4 billion in 2011 and $17.8 billion in 2012. A 5 percent cut below 2011 would trim another $900 million from NASA's bottom line. A 10 percent cut would be $1.84 billion in lost dollars.

How would cuts that size affect NASA? Chat rooms and blog sites on the Internet were buzzing with speculation last week.

Most observers believe the White House and Congress will want to protect the big ticket items identified as NASA priorities: the James Webb Space Telescope, the Space Launch System, the Orion crew capsule system and the International Space Station.

The Space Launch System includes a heavy-lift rocket being developed in Huntsville. Marshall Space Flight Center Director Robert Lightfoot has already scheduled a media briefing for 3 p.m. CST Monday, one hour after NASA Administrator Charles Bolden briefs the national press.

So what's left to cut? Will NASA's commercial crew development program suffer? What about major planetary missions including two planned Mars missions? What about the institutional budget that keeps the lights on at NASA centers?

The Mars missions are in danger, the former associate head of NASA's science mission directorate said last week, and that's why he resigned last fall.

"The Mars program is one of the crown jewels of NASA," Ed Weiler told the blog sciencemag.org. "In what irrational, Homer Simpson world would we single it out for disproportionate cuts?"

According to Weiler, the White House will propose cutting $300 million from the Science Mission Directorate in 2013 and another $200 million by 2017. Weiler says he wanted to cut the directorate's budget across the board to make up the loss.

But OMB insisted the ExoMars program be singled out, Weiler said in the blog. ExoMars is a Mars mission being developed by the European Space Agency originally with NASA collaboration. Last week, NASA asked the Russian space agency to step in on the assumption NASA is pulling out, the website said.

NASA is going all out to encourage citizen involvement in the budget rollout. The agency is inviting 20 of its Twitter followers - its "tweeps" - to join reporters for the budget news conference and ask questions.

Defense preview

During an unusual Pentagon briefing in January, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, joined by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey and President Barack Obama, unveiled a new national defense strategy. They pointed out the nation is at a turning point after a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan and acknowledged the fiscal realities and challenges facing the United States.

The new strategy calls for a smaller, leaner "Joint Force for the future" that is agile, flexible, rapidly deployable and technologically advanced, Panetta said.

Panetta said the plans are consistent with the Budget Control Act passed last summer that calls for a $487 billion reduction in defense spending over 10 years. The five-year plan submitted today cuts $259 billion, he said.

The FY2013 budget also seeks a separate $88 billion for "Overseas Contingency Operations" to support troops in Afghanistan, making for a rounded total of $614 billion for the year, according to the DoD. The OCO funding for FY2012 - which included the withdrawal drawdown from Iraq - was $115 billion.

The modernization of the Army's fleet of helicopters and aircraft - managed by the Aviation and Missile Command and Program Executive Office for Aviation on Redstone Arsenal - will continue, but at a slower pace, said Army Chief of Staff Gen. Raymond Odierno.

The budget "white paper" released in January said "science and technology programs are largely protected" and that funding was protected for missile defense programs involving homeland defense and the Phased Adaptive Approach for missile defense in Europe. Those programs, managed by the Missile Defense Agency's offices on Redstone Arsenal, include Ground-based Midcourse Defense - for which Boeing in Huntsville is prime contractor.

The Raytheon missile integration facility under construction on the arsenal will assemble the Standard Missile 3 variants now used by the sea-based Aegis missile defense ships, and the Aegis-ashore variant that is to be deployed in Europe under the Phased Adaptive Approach.

The budget document does point out "we reduced spending and accepted some risk in deployable regional missile defense and will increase reliance on allies and partners in the future." Aviation Week reports that could signal additional foreign sales of Patriot Advanced Capability 3 and Terminal High Altitude Air Defense systems. Boeing makes the seeker for the PAC-3 in Huntsville, and Lockheed develops THAAD in Huntsville and Troy.

Defense officials have mentioned the possibility of one or two more Base Realignment and Closure rounds. Odierno pointed out that they'll have to work with Congress on that - and a number of representatives have already made it clear they oppose any new BRAC efforts at this time.

Many details about the FY2013 budget will remain unknown until it is released today, said retired Lt. Gen. Theodore Stroup, vice president of education for the Association of the U.S. Army. But, considering the new strategic guidance and nearly unprecedented previews of a budget based on those policies, Huntsville should fare well under the spending plan.

A lot of federal money, a lot of defense money comes through the programs on the arsenal and in the area, he said. And that should continue.

"I believe it's unlikely that the 2013 budget will have significant cutting in the Huntsville area," Stroup said. "I believe that we have to look at 2014 and 2015, after the war winds down, to see more significant defense cuts. But I think Huntsville will not take any major (federal program) budget cuts."