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1 Comments of Professor Richard Wilson Department of Physics & Center for Risk Analysis Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts On the Proposed Asbestos Ban Senate Employment and Workplace Safety Subcommittee Under the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee March 1, 2007 Dirksen Senate Office Building Room 430 These comments are submitted in order to summarize and in some places expand on the letter of February 13 th submitted by Dr. Robert P. Nolan and myself. About 1972 I began careful comparative studies of various risks, both occupational and environmental. I have written many papers on this and a comprehensive approach to the subject is in my book Risk Benefit Analysis, copies of which I have here. I was immediately concerned about asbestos. It worried me that the industry and US government position was that a threshold exists, or at least there is a non-linear dose response relationship. I was therefore delighted when Professor Julian Peto of the UK challenged this at a meeting of the New York Academy of Sciences in I was also concerned that measurements of airborne asbestos concentrations were often taken in a calm period, whereas the uptake from surface concentrations will rise as the cube of the wind velocity. I was also delighted by the action of Sir Richard Doll of the UK, who in response to Julian Peto s criticism asked Julian to join him in an important report to the UK government. In the 1980s everyone became more cautious. The occupational exposure limits were reduced a hundred fold and asbestos was removed from hundreds of locations. There were proposals in the US to ban the use of asbestos entirely and might have been justifiable in And in fact it has been banned in over 40 countries around the world, but not in the USA. We argue that the time for an absolute asbestos ban has passed. We have used more sophisticated regulatory tools with much success. In 1971 all the commercial asbestos fiber-types were being used in the United States, asbestos consumption was above 500,000 tons per year and the permissible asbestos exposure level was 12 fibers/ml (equal to or great than 5 microns in length) an asbestos ban may have been justifiable. Since the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration began to regulate asbestos in 1971, we would like to point out the events that have occurred to eliminate any need for an asbestos ban in the United States. The permissible occupational exposure limit has been reduced to 0.1 fibers/ml over a hundred fold lower than the 1971 asbestos standard and hundreds of times lower than the 1

2 historical high asbestos exposure levels of the bad old days associated with asbestosrelated disease. The current US permissible exposure level for asbestos is as low as any in the world. We strongly disagree with statements in the Ban Asbestos Bill indicating the current US permissible exposure level is not safe. In the late 1970s Federal organizations panicked. Whereas, they had been insufficiently cautious before, they went overboard. The predictions by various federal agencies over the years about the number of Americans who would develop asbestosrelated cancers have been consistently lowered. In 1978 Mr. Joseph Califano released a report from the National Cancer Institute and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (completely discredited within a couple of weeks although the Council of Environmental Quality still referred to it 18 months later) suggesting that occupational exposures, were the major cause of cancer with asbestos causing 17%. They predicted that 2 million premature asbestos-related cancer deaths would occur over the next thirty years. The false assumption was made that any worker exposed to asbestos had the same cancer risk as the highest exposed asbestos worker. They also forgot to say that these would almost all be from past exposures (Efron 1984, Wilson and Crouch 2001). From the 66,666 asbestos-related cancers predicted annually from 1978 to 2008 the proposed legislation reports that as many as 10,000 American citizens will die each year from mesothelioma and other asbestos-related diseases. This, we believe, is high and since there is a long latency period, often 40 + years for mesothelioma, the number is in all probability related to past high exposures to amphibole asbestos. In 1979 there was a move for an absolute ban on asbestos. An advanced notice of proposed rulemaking by the US Environmental Protection Agency appeared on October 17, That year the total US consumption of asbestos was 560,000 tons compared to 2,000 tons now. Moreover about 6.6% was the very toxic amosite asbestos and crocidolite asbestos. The balance was the less toxic chrysotile asbestos. The final rule prohibiting most asbestos containing products because it constituted an unreasonable risk to health and the environment did not appear until 1989 by which time the amphibole asbestos minerals were leaving commerce. And exposure limits were much reduced. On October 18, 1991 the 5 th Circuit Court of Appeal vacated EPA s proposed ban because the agency had failed to muster substantial evidence to support the rule. In 1986 the EPA estimated that a ban on asbestos shingles would cost $23-34 million to save 0.32 statistic lives ($ million per life). I note that in about the year 2000 EPA instituted (uncontested) a rule suggesting regulation at $5.6 million per life. The 5 th Circuit went on to query why EPA would consider asbestos so dangerous if for example over the next 13 years, we can expect more than a dozen deaths from ingested toothpicks-a death toll more than twice what the EPA predicts will flow from the quarter billion-dollar bans on asbestos pipe, shingles and roof coatings. The Court of Appeal s decision remanded the matter back to EPA to muster further evidence to support their claim that asbestos exposure constitutes an unreasonable risk. 2

3 Such additional evidence has never been provided by EPA and we would argue that for chrysotile asbestos it does not exist. The Ban Asbestos Bill has not addressed any of the Court of Appeal s concerns about mustering substantial evidence. In the intervening time it has been shown that controlled use of chrysotile asbestos is feasible and it is happening in many parts of the world (Nolan et al. 2001). The substantial evidence the 5 th Circuit asked for to show that controlled asbestos exposure presents an unreasonable risk is not available and we argue that such evidence does not exist (Wilson et al. 2001). What has changed to justify the US Senate s bill to ban asbestos now? As we re-visit the ban issue 28 years after the first proposal and 16 years after the Court shot it down, much has happened to make a complete ban of asbestos in the US an even less attractive public health policy. In the dangerous amosite and crocidolite asbestos left commerce worldwide. Crocidolite is the fiber-type first associated with mesothelioma in South Africa. This fiber-type is particularly potent and can cause mesothelioma after low exposure. This observation began the public health concern about non-occupational exposure to asbestos causing cancer. Crocidolite asbestos and high exposure to amosite asbestos are the major etiological agents in this disease. Consumption of these two amphibole asbestos fiber-types started to decline in the 1960s and the US incidence of mesothelioma has been declining since the 1990s (Weill et al. 2004). This updates earlier reports including one of mine. This decline is consistent with the idea that the mesotheliomas are caused by past (40 years and more) exposure to these dangerous amphibole asbestos minerals. It is consistent with the idea, suggested by epidemiology, that chrysotile asbestos is not known to cause mesothelioma. And is certainly less likely to do so. US consumption of asbestos has fallen to 2,000 tons of chrysotile asbestos in 2006 which is about ¼ % of the consumption in the mid-1970s. Exposures are much better controlled. Ninety percent of the chrysotile asbestos is used in asphalt roofing products which are not regulated by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration as an asbestos-containing product because there is no evidence of asbestos release from this matrix. Less than 17% of the countries around the world have chosen to ban asbestos (most after the EPA ban was vacated in 1991) but worldwide consumption has remained in excess of 2,000,000 tons per annum. Most of the asbestos bans were not total but were to ban certain uses of asbestos while other critical uses such as gaskets to contain corrosive gases in rocket engines and diaphragms for production of chlorine, are allowed. The US Court of Appeal review is unique in that the openness of the US Judicial process allowed for an impartial review of a government led asbestos ban. To our knowledge the issues raised by the 5 th Circuit have never been addressed in any country where asbestos has been banned. 3

4 The significantly higher carcinogenic potency of the commercial amphibole asbestos minerals (amosite and crocidolite) compared to chrysotile has been well understood for many years with the latest quantitative risk assessment by Hodgson and Darnton of the UK Health and Safety Executive appearing in The most recent estimate in the range of potency between crocidolite asbestos and chrysotile asbestos for mesothelioma is 500 to 1. Yarborough 2006 concluded that the risk of chrysotile for mesothelioma in most regulatory context reflects public policies, not the application of the scientific method as applied to epidemiology studies. Yarborough clearly does not support the claim in the Ban Asbestos Bill that the current asbestos permissible exposure limit does not protect workers. Asbestos is not a manufactured material although mining and manufacturing processes are used to make it useful. A ban on these processes will not address the risks caused by asbestos outcropping in many areas of the country. These natural risks are much greater than the residual risks of processed asbestos. For example the asbestos exposures in Libby, Montana are to dangerous amphibole asbestos. There is no risk and toxicity assessment for these to determine the safe human exposure. The remediation measures in Libby taken to date are not based on a health standard. The definitions of asbestos used in the Ban Asbestos Bill are not specific enough and could be interpreted to include other non-asbestos fibers. For example acicular is not a characteristic unique to asbestos. Non-asbestos amphibole fiber can be described as acicular and are not regulated as asbestos by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). Three minerals are included in the ban which has never been regulated as asbestos richterite, winchite and erionite. Fibrous erionite has been found by the International Agency for Research on Cancer to be a human carcinogen (Group 1) but there has never been an erionite related mesothelioma reported in the United States. The two other durable fibers mentioned are richterite and winchite which have been described in the vermiculite deposit at Libby, Montana. Neither of these two fiber-types has ever been regulated as asbestos by OSHA. The predominant fiber in Libby is tremolite asbestos. We would recommend asbestiform be added to both these minerals and the acicular be deleted as a characteristic of asbestos. The definitions in Ban Asbestos Bill are not adequate for regulatory purposes. The Ban Asbestos Bill calls for banning minerals or products which contain asbestos in any concentration. This search for zero is an old fashioned and obsolete procedure. Modern analytical methods can identify very low concentrations of mineral fiber present in ore deposits, or even in the general urban environment, which may or may not be asbestos and which in any case can be shown to pose a negligible risk. The Ban Asbestos Bill as written may cause the presence of asbestos at low concentrations to be claimed where it is not present (Langer et al. 1991) US asbestos policy, as suggested by this proposed bill, is not based on a modern understanding of the cancer risk from various asbestos fiber-types. Another consequence of this is that after the expenditure of $100 million in Libby, Montana the evidence of a 4

5 benefit remains elusive as stated by the EPA Inspector General in his December, 2006 report. Now that the commercial amphibole asbestos have been removed from commerce by economic forces and the asbestos consumption in the US has been reduced by 99.75% to chrysotile asbestos only, and the exposure levels in the workplace reduced by many hundred fold, there is no justification for banning the controlled use of chrysotile asbestos. The use of asbestos in gaskets, O rings and the like pose negligible risk to anyone and to curtail them without reason is counterproductive to the economy and well being of the US as a whole References Califano J: Draft Summary: Estimate of the fraction of Cancer Incidence in the United States attributable to Occupational Factors with 8 contributors but, interestingly, no authors. Presented to the AFL/CIO September 11 th Efron E: The Apocalyptics, Simon and Schuster, New York, Hodgson JT, Darnton A: The quantitative risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer in relationship to asbestos exposure. Annals of Occup Hyg; 44: , Langer AM, Nolan RP, Addison J: Distinguishing between amphibole asbestos fibers and elongate cleavage fragments of their non-asbestos analogues. In: NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Mechanisms in Fibre Carcinogenesis. R.C. Brown, J. Hoskins, N. Johnson, (eds), pp , Nolan RP, Langer AM, Ross M, Wicks FJ, Martin RF (eds): Health Effects of Chrysotile-Asbestos: Contribution of Science to Risk Management Decisions. Canadian Mineralogist Special Publication 5, 1-304, Office of the Inspector General: EPA Need to Plan and Complete a Toxicity Assessment for the Libby Asbestos Cleanup, Report N 2007-P-00002, December 5, Weill H, Hughes JM, Churg AM: Changing Trends in US Mesothelioma Incidence. Occupational Environmental Medicine 61: , Wilson R, Nolan RP, Domnin SG: Letter to the Editor. The Debate on Banning Asbestos. Canadian Medical Association Journal 165: , Wilson R and Crouch EAC: Risk-Benefit Analysis 2 nd edition, Harvard University Press, 2001 See in particular page 129 Table 4-6 Yarborough CM: Chrysotile as a Cause of Mesothelioma: An Assessment Based on Epidemiology. Critical Reviews in Toxicology 36: ,

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