Roughly 50 Million In U.S. Could Grab iPhone 6 Upgrades

Analysis suggests 67 pct. of iPhone owners could use subsidy.

Mobile analytics provider Localytics performed an analysis of global iPhone and iPad ownership in anticipation of today’s iPhone 6 announcements. The firm “examined over 100 million iPhone and iPad models” last month to generate its market-share pie charts.

What Localytics found is that with 27 percent of iPhone ownership the iPhone 5 was the most common model in the market. It found the same for the iPad 2, which had a 29 percent share of all iPads.

More interesting that this market share breakdown of iPhones (or iPads) is what it implies for the launch of the iPhone 6. The iPhone 5 was released two years ago. That means everyone who owns an iPhone 5, 4s or 4 is potentially eligible for carrier upgrades.

If we assume that the US market mirrors this global breakdown then, essentially, 67 percent of iPhone owners would be entitled to a carrier upgrade or subsidy. Extrapolating from comScore’s most recent smartphone data, that would mean in turn that roughly 50 million existing US iPhone owners could potentially buy a carrier-subsidized iPhone 6 when it becomes available.

This suggests massive potential demand for the device — just in the US market. It remains to be seen how compelling the iPhone 6, or iPhones, actually are. But these numbers argue it has the potential to be a blockbuster for Apple.

About The Author

Greg Sterling is a Contributing Editor at Search Engine Land. He writes a personal blog, Screenwerk, about connecting the dots between digital media and real-world consumer behavior. He is also VP of Strategy and Insights for the Local Search Association. Follow him on Twitter or find him at Google+.