Proenza Likely To Resign

Even though Friday morning Bill Proenza was saying in news interviews that he would not resign, by Friday afternoon, on a widely-distributed AP article:

Bill Proenza said in an interview Friday that he has no intention of resigning, but will step down if his bosses feel it is best for the center and the public.

But...wouldn't stepping down be...kind of like...resigning?

In a CNN interview tonight, Proenza again said he would step down if he had to. So there you have it. Some kind of a deal has undoubtably been worked out with NOAA management today, and either Proenza will be gone very shortly, perhaps by Monday, or after the two-week period has elapsed when the NHC assessment has been completed, or he will be taking a leave of absence for those two weeks until that time, or something similar. And that resignation will probably include some kind of gag order to not talk about NHC or NOAA.

About three hours after I posted this, the Sun Sentinel posted a story along similar lines, in the wee hours of Saturday morning (so...I happened to be up), titled "NHC Director Bill Proenza May Quit," with this lead:

As forecasters escalated their public attacks on the chief of the National Hurricane Center, accusing him of being both unqualified and unresponsive, an embattled Bill Proenza acknowledged Friday he would leave if his bosses asked him to. Proenza had previously refused calls for his resignation.

And my suspicions on this count were confirmed:

Also Friday, several center employees said a surprise investigation of the center's management likely was initiated by Proenza's subordinates, not his superiors, as the center director has contended...What nobody expected...was for Proenza to make the investigation public and then say he was being attacked from above.

And, ouch:

"He portrays himself as a David vs. Goliath, fighting for the little people, but that is not true. He's more Chicken Little," said Jorge, a 22-year veteran of the center. "These guys are not mad because Bill is speaking out. It's the fact that he misrepresents facts and information."

Additional details on the situation at NHC came out earlier in a Friday evening Miami Herald article, including this:

Senior forecaster Rick Knabb told Proenza by email that Proenza had publicly misrepresented remarks made by Knabb during a private conversation this week, and "I will no longer meet or talk with you in private."

Along the same lines of what I emphsized this morning, two veteran tropical meteorologists, former Hurricane Specialist Miles Lawrence and former HRD head Hugh Willoughby, both commented on the professionalism of NHC staff and on the ability to provide quality forecasts, in spite of the current turmoil at the NHC.

* * * * * * *

Putting Things in Perspective: Yesterday in an article in the Palm Beach Post, Congressman Klein referred to QuikSCAT as, "the premier hurricane tracking satellite." This calls for a reality check.

I'm not really sure if any one satellite could be called the "premier" satellite -- but if one had to be selected, it would be the one that gives us this:

and this: and this:

every half hour -- GOES -- not the one that gives us this:

twice a day.

Lixion Avila put it this way, in interviews with NHC staff aired on CBS-4, "It's like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats, that BMW is going to run."

And there is still the ongoing mystery about who the "Institute for Emergency Management" is, and how a bizarrely inaccurate statement from them came to be entered into the Congressional Record, here and here, along with two newspaper articles, as background for justification of the QuikSCAT legislation. Note in particular the section, "WHY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CANNOT REPLACE THE QUIKSCAT." Who wrote it? Who was responsible for providing this as one of the touchstones for members of Congress who wanted to familiarize themselves with the necessity of replacing this particular satellite at this particular time?

* * * * * * *

This week Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin has taken the lead in speaking for the NHC employees. James is reserved and scholarly and a remarkably skilled meteorologist, with a wonderful sense of humor and exceptional writing skills. It took a lot of courage for him to step into the public spotlight. I can tell you that the step to share their side of the situation with the public was a last resort, and only taken after coming to the conclusion that it was completely necessary, and the right thing to do. Being in the media spotlight in this manner is not a comfortable thing for any of them, and not something they would have chosen if they had felt that they had any other option.

I have read many of the comments made to many of the news articles online. I have seen some terrible things said in these comments, which are mostly, but not all, anonymous. There is one thing in particular that I would like to emphasize -- not a one of the senior forecasters has any kind of investment in trying to remove Bill Proenza in order to have the job himself. This speculation is patently untrue. I can also tell you that every single person at NHC is a consumate professional, and they will turn out the very best forecasts that they can regardless of any situation at NHC, and regardless of their personal views on this or any other situation.

James spoke simply and eloquently on the CBS-4 interviews this morning, which were quoted extensively in the press, including Reuters:

"We did that very reluctantly, to go to the press. We have been trying to work these issues with Bill since he has gotten here, we have been trying to work these issues through the system. The Department of Commerce special team that came down here last week was here because we have been trying to work these issues, quietly, in the system. But we were afraid that our feelings were not going to be adequately carried back to the Department of Commerce, and we wanted them to know how strongly so many of the staff felt about what was going on here, about how difficult it was getting for us to do our jobs here.

"We wanted them to know unambiguously that we needed Bill to leave. He has misrepresented the views of his staff repeatedly, chronically, he's done it again in today's comments in the Herald.* The people who signed that letter are not afraid of losing their jobs. What they are afraid of is not being able to do their jobs effectively, to protect the American people from tropical cyclones.

"This is the same staff that worked so hard and came together as a family so well during Katrina and Rita and Wilma and the 2004 storms and the 2005 storms. This is the same staff and we want to be able to continue to do that, but Bill has poisoned the atmosphere here at the hurricane center.

"We're a small group. We have an enormous responsibility; we are responsible for the safety of millions and millions of people that we don't know. And where there are key events we pull together as a family to do that; we did it under Max and we did it under the directors before him.

"But he has divided the staff, he has been dismissive of the staff, he doesn't respect the staff. He lies about what we say. And it was time for us to very clearly state that there are two sides to this story, and that's why we made the statement that we made....There are staff members that will not meet with him in private, because they are afraid that he will lie or misrepresent what was said."

* the comments referred to in this morning's Miami Herald article are below:

[Proenza] blamed nearly all of the turmoil on the actions of his bosses, particularly the ''extraordinary disruption'' caused by the inspection launched by five federal officials, including an attorney versed in personnel matters.

"I have employees tell me, 'Bill, I am so much for you and for what you've brought in. But I'm so afraid that if I'm viewed to be with you and you leave, then I'm viewed as being in the wrong camp,' " Proenza said.

The Miami Herald article this morning characterized Proenza as angry, and he said that he would not resign.

Numerous articles in the press this afternoon quote Proenza as saying he was assured he still had his job after talking to NOAA management on the phone this morning. But don't take that to be any indication that NOAA has resolved the issue. It can't be a good thing when the first thing you have to do in the morning when you go to work, is to call your boss to find out if you still have a job. And NOAA has already said they will do nothing until the special team that conducted a review of the NHC has submitted their report on July 20th. That's two weeks away...on a Friday. Maybe that would be a good day to call in sick?

Proenza's pension is protected by Federal law, and so he would not be sacrificing retirement by staying, even if NOAA removes him from the job. It is also interesting to note that Proenza has taken the time to mention in several media interviews that he wants to be director for "five years." This was after he certainly knew the path down which this imbroglio was headed. Proenza has nothing to lose and possibly a severance package to gain, by staying at NHC, if his leaving is inevitable.

However, NHC will certainly lose.

* * * * * * *

A summary of the news from last night:

Thursday evening update: Today a large number of the staff at the TPC/NHC signed a petition asking for Bill Proenza to be replaced as NHC Director -- again documented by the Miami Herald. This was done off-site and not all the employees were able to be contacted regarding the petition. However a large majority of the employees who were contacted, about 70%, did sign the petition.

This morning, HRD discussed the matter at an all-hands meeting, and unanimously supports Proenza. Of course, none of the HRD employees work for Proenza, so I am not sure how this vote of confidence would factor into any decision on Proenza's tenure, and it seems that NOAA has already set in motion the actions that will lead to resignation or termination. I may have more information regarding HRD's point of view tomorrow.

It was very interesting that Proenza's own administrative staff signed the petition. Many people at the center have had difficulties working with Proenza, and this factored heavily into some of the decisions. This is unfortunate because this past six months should have been the time to establish a rapport and good working relationship with the staff, and it is telling that not only the Senior Hurricane Specialists and other senior staff, but the administrative staff as well, are willing to go on record as stating that they would prefer a new NHC Director. It does appear that the concerns about whether Proenza can be an effective manager are valid ones, as it is hard to imagine how so many people could take this extreme position without there being quite a bit of substance to their concerns.

* * * * * * *

One of the odd changes that has been made at NHC is that the personnel page, which used to be headed "Tropical Prediction Center Staff" with the hurricane specialists as the only personnel comprising the NHC, has been changed under Proenza with the entire staff being listed as "National Hurricane Center Staff." It appears that one of the changes Proenza was implementing was systematically eliminating any reference to TPC (recall one of the items in the "reprimand memo" was the fallout from directing forecasters to replace the words "Tropical Prediction Center" with "National Hurricane Center" on the label of the March 4th high seas forecast).

Katrina's SurgeComments may also be emailed to viewfromthesurface at wunderground dot com..

It's like People think because He is UnpopularThen he must go. Since when do Employess haveTo Like Their Boss in order for them to workand Do their Jobs Effectively?

To me really the whole thing doesnt make sense.

That article Comparing The NHC to a CloseKnitted family especially is alarming.

These are Government Scientists being paid Top dollar By Taxpayer Money to do a Job.

Sounds like the Forecasters need to put therepersonal issues with Proenza aside and get backto work. Playtime on Taxpayer Money is OverPeople !! The More I Hear About this story themore it smells of politics.

Politics,Religion and Global Warming are TheOnly Issues i can think of that can cause thatmuch Division and Bickering amongest Peoplewho are Obviously That Intelligent.

It will be rather interesting to see who Bill'sReplacement is. They should perhaps hold a popularity contest beforehand just for GoodMeasure.

Agree 100% Steve. We should not be criticizing the man who runs the agency that tells us how strong a hurricane is, how strong it will get, and where it will go.

And now about Avila saying Proenza hasn't made a forecast since 1964. He worked at the Southern Region headquarters since 1999. This is the same region where 90 percent of the nations hurricanes make landfall. source

You, and people like you, are destroying a man's career over subjects that you so obviously know nothing about. You are disregarding facts that do not support your thinking, and making facts up to bolster your arguements. Your blogs are so full of total and complete rubbish that trying to disprove them would take days. You choose to ignore those who prove you wrong and continue to side with those who have no idea what is going on.

Dr. Atlas has said that your "theories" concerning the error percentages given by Director Proenza were unfounded. Instead of admitting that your half thought through hypothesis was incorrect, you decide to move onto publishing other untruths. I understand that this is a blog, but some of your statements border on libel, others are so preposterous as to defy definition.

Before you next to pen to paper, so to speak, you should really use your computer for research instead. The renaming that has been done on the NHC website was ordered by NOAA in an effort to rebrand the National Weather Service, not some conspriracy-driven plan to insult the senior forecasters there. The government does not enter into gag orders with their career service employees, it is against federal law. Director Proenza has said all along that he would resign if his superiors asked him to, this is not a change in his stated public statements as you imply. Senior management at NOAA has publically stated their support of the Director, another fact you fail to mention. The fact finding inspection at the NCH earlier this week was not publicized by the Director, but rather by the employees of the NHC and the Public Affairs Office of NOAA.

I could continue to disprove your manufactured claims, but time does not permit this to be done, and, its seems, that you do not allow the facts to cloud your thinking.

WeatherUnderground would be well served to discontinue publishing such biased and one sided views on a site that is supposed to publish valid scientific material. To do less would be a disservice to all who seriously follow the weather and forecasting.

Maybe if they wouldn't put so much pressure on the guy, than he wouldn't resign. Personally I feel that this web site is at fault also. All this criticizing put pressure on the guy. You can't say the guy is likely to resign. He only said that he would resign if Washington (or NOAA) asked him to. I'm now wishing that AccuWeather.com made the forecast. If it has .gov at the, most likely there is something corrupt going on.

Thanks for putting all this information together... After digesting all the information from all the sides involved, I have come to the conclusion that Proenza MUST GO, and GO NOW!!! He is a divisive influence and must go for the good reputation of the NHC...

Wow, what a manipulator. All this time it looked like he was being railroaded, when he was the one who engineered it. This guy's really bad news. Good riddance. I hope now everyone can put this behind them and move on.

Before this year, turmoil like this at the NHC was as rare as a cat5 storm in the Arabian Sea lol!

At first I thought Bill Proenza was being railroaded, but it doesn't look that way to me now. I don't think those forecasters would go public if they thought they could avoid it. They went through channels like they were supposed to, and it turns out he's been twisting the story, and now it all really reeks.

I'm glad that the tropics are quiet at least. Let's move on before they heat up.

JARED LAZARUS/MIAMI HERALD STAFF National Hurricane Center Bill Proenza tells the Miami Herald early Friday he will not resign, even after half of his staff signed a letter urging him to do so. Raw video | Staff lashes out Special section | Hurricane 2007 On the Web | Weather Underground Embattled hurricane center director Bill Proenza on Friday angrily defied calls from a mutinous staff for his dismissal. At the same time, he said he would discuss ''the way forward'' with his superiors in Washington.

''I'm not going to resign,'' he told The Miami Herald. ``The staff here doesn't dictate who the leader is. What a dangerous precedent when we allow subordinates to dictate their leadership by signing a petition.''

His comments came a day after nearly half of the staff of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County joined the revolt against him, issuing a statement calling for his immediate dismissal.

''The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake,'' said the statement, signed by seven hurricane forecasters and 16 other employees, including many staff scientists and Proenza's secretary.

''The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director,'' the manifesto said, ``and with the heart of the hurricane season fast approaching, urges the Department of Commerce to make this happen as quickly as possible.''

On Friday, the rebellious staff members expressed disappointment in Proenza's refusal to resign.

''He has poisoned the atmosphere here,'' hurricane forecaster James Franklin said during a press conference conducted outside the building. ``We would have liked to have Bill see that he didn't have control of his staff and step down. That's not going to happen.''

Earlier this week, he and two other senior forecasters told The Miami Herald that Proenza should leave and another senior forecaster criticized Proenza.

They said his public statements about an aging satellite have undermined confidence in their forecasts. Others believe that his frequent clashes with superiors in Washington have become a serious distraction as the hurricane season deepens.

Proenza, 62, who was out of town when the petition was signed and released, returned late Thursday to discover the full-blown mutiny. He insisted Friday that he was not going to be bullied into leaving a $150,000-a-year job he has held only six months.

He added, however, that he served at the pleasure of his bosses in Washington and would discuss the situation with them.

Those superiors also have been applying pressure, last month reprimanding him by letter and this week conducting a snap inspection of his operation -- a process that will resume next week.

''In all sincerity, I need to discuss the way forward with Washington, D.C.,'' Proenza said. ``I work for the American people and I'm always prepared to provide for their greater good.''

He blamed nearly all of the turmoil on the actions of his bosses, particularly the ''extraordinary disruption'' caused by the inspection launched by five federal officials, including an attorney versed in personnel matters.

'I have employees tell me, `Bill, I am so much for you and for what you've brought in. But I'm so afraid that if I'm viewed to be with you and you leave, then I'm viewed as being in the wrong camp,' '' Proenza said.

''This group believes that we need new leadership here and it believes we need it quickly,'' Franklin told The Miami Herald.

He said that the 23 signatures represent about half of the total staff -- and 70 percent of those who had an opportunity to see the statement.

Another member of the staff said the group met at 3 p.m. in the hurricane center, situated on Florida International University's campus, to discuss the issuance of a statement.

About an hour later, to avoid any conflict with government duties and regulations, those who agreed with the statement's contents walked across the street to an FIU building and signed it.

In another development Thursday, a prominent private forecaster joined the call for Proenza's resignation or ouster.

Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for the Weather Underground, which provides forecasts for The Associated Press, Google and hundreds of other clients, questioned the scientific basis of Proenza's campaign to replace the aging QuikScat satellite.

''There's never been anything like this,'' Masters said. ``He should resign this month.''

Masters, whose online site serves Web pages that receive 10 million visits a day, including The Miami Herald's forecast-related Web pages, criticized the basis for Proenza's assertion that the loss of QuikScat would diminish the accuracy of two-day forecasts by 10 percent and three-day forecasts by 16 percent.

The satellite, launched in 1999, is operating beyond its designed life span. A replacement has not yet been designed, though preliminary plans are under way.

Many forecasters and researchers say a replacement should feature upgraded capabilities, even at the risk of delaying deployment, and that Proenza's public campaign could work against that.

At any rate, Masters said, Proenza's estimates of forecast deterioration are based on a study that examines a small number of forecasts, is contradicted by other studies and has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, an unusual circumstance.

''To be in the most visible and responsible scientific position in our profession of meteorology, everything you do has to come from the science,'' Masters said. ``You have to fairly present it. If you don't have the integrity to do that, you shouldn't be in the job.''

But a leading QuikScat expert rose to Proenza's defense.

Bob Atlas, who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, was a key member of the team that developed and initially worked with QuikScat.

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a ''rigorous study'' that provides the ``most comprehensive study of QuikScat data related to hurricane predictions.''

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikScat has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikScat data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

''Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers,'' Atlas said.

But also on Virginia Key, Otis Brown, the dean of the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, which works closely with hurricane forecasters, said he was disturbed by the current climate at the center.

''When you have this much apparent turmoil and you don't have everyone, at least superficially, pulling in the same direction, that cannot be in the best interests of an organization,'' Brown said.

I completely agree Steve.Time for him to resign. It's the last thing he can possibly do in this situation.

Unfortunately this is true. He has probably been embarrassed.

I don't understand how Proenza isn't doing his job. He started talking about QuickScat sense he became director, which was during the Off-Season. NOAA didn't make a big deal about it until the season started! Now who is the one being responsible?

In your blog today, you state "And there is still the ongoing mystery about who the "Institute for Emergency Management" is". A simple Google search returns several results, including www.iem.org, the website of that organization. The only ongoing mystery is why you continue to do incomplete research in your writings. If you have problems with the IEM, please state what those may be. But to imply that there is some mystery about the organization is incorrect. The only mystery is why you failed to find out more about them.

You further state "how a bizarrely inaccurate statement from them came to be entered into the Congressional Record". The statement you find fault in is ""WHY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CANNOT REPLACE THE QUIKSCAT." emphasis yours. Why is this statement incorrect? Do you contend that planes can better determine the position and intensity of cyclones in the Western Pacific? Please state your reasoning for your bizarrely inaccurate statement.

Hurricane hunters provide valuable and accurate information of storms within their range. But they are limited in their area of operations. Only satellites can provide the vital information needed by forecasters.

Director Proenza's statements of earlier this year concerning the loss of Quickscat, and the sad state of the entire fleet of weather satellites, has produced some very desired outcomes. The U.S. Senate has raised the budget requested by the Bush administration by $400 million dollars, this doubles the amount by which the U.S. House raise these expenditures for the next fiscal year. Isnt this what everyone in the weather community wanted?

Your continued use of the facts that only support your position, and disregard of the facts the prove you wrong, should stop.

This situation is challenging to figure out. Is Proenza being rail roaded out because he disagreed with a few bosses and now others are getting on the bandwagon... or is he just difficult to get a long with and everything thinks a mistake was made in hiring him.

funny thing, that position is not taken lightly by anyone. No one really "wants" it because of the hours and hugh responsibility for human life and property. One would think that the powers that be would have fully vetted his qualifications and personality before making the hiring choice. wouldn't one? and he's been there for 6 mos; wouldn't some of this have come out earlier if he were really difficult to work with?