The likelihood of success for both the impending Amazon tablet and Google's forthcoming Android update, dubbed "Ice Cream Sandwich," against the iPad has reportedly been called into question by industry insiders.

After seeing major companies like Research in Motion, Motorola and Hewlett-Packard struggle in the tablet market against the iPad, notebook vendors are "backing away from the tablet PC bandwagon," according to DigiTimes. In a report issued Thursday, it was said that notebook makers are "turning pessimistic" about the tablet market outside of the iPad.

Those hardware makers reportedly believe that Google's forthcoming update for its Android mobile operating system, Ice Cream Sandwich, will not help them overcome the market dominance seen by Apple's iPad.

"The sources pointed out that non-Apple players may need to wait until the Android version after Ice Cream Sandwich or Windows 8 hit the market to fight back against Apple," the report said.

Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.

In a separate story, DigiTimes also reported Thursday that Amazon's own tablet, expected to be released in the fourth quarter of 2011, has a questionable future ahead of it, according to industry insiders. Specifically, sources in the supply chain for Amazon's tablet reportedly question whether the retailer is wise for releasing a 7-inch model when Apple has found success with a 9.7-inch display on the iPad.

Beyond the iPad and among other tablets, the 10-inch form factor has still performed 7-inch devices. Last year, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs slammed tablets with smaller 7-inch screens, and said that his company's extensive user testing found that screen size was too small for users.

Supply chain sources have also expressed doubt that Amazon will be able to meet an internal shipment goal of 4 million units by the end of 2011. They also question whether Amazon can replicate the success it has had with its e-ink based Kindle on a multimedia tablet with a full color display.

Price point is the key! If the Amazon tablet is cheap they will fly off the shelves! Not sure the OS will make a difference to the average consumer, I still think if they cost the same as the iPad then they will still purchase an iPad!

Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.

That being said, Amazon will have the only tablet that will come anywhere close to "competing" with the iPad with any success. They have the ability to price it realistically, the infrastructure to sell it and provide a market place for apps, and a dedicated user base from Kindle.

It will be successful for them, far surpassing any other competing tablets, but still pale in comparison to Ipad's success.

Amazon's tablet will do ok, I think. They have an ecosystem, it will be easy for people to spend money on/via it (existing credit card details, 1-click etc), it just comes down to how much the initial outlay will be.

That being said, Amazon will have the only tablet that will come anywhere close to "competing" with the iPad with any success. They have the ability to price it realistically, the infrastructure to sell it and provide a market place for apps, and a dedicated user base from Kindle.

It will be successful for them, far surpassing any other competing tablets, but still pale in comparison to Ipad's success.

That's my humble opinion.

Interesting. We'll see. I haven't paid any attention to it until now literally

Debating whether an unannounced and unreleased tablet will fail/succeed is no better than flipping a coin. Actually, it's probably worse as they have a history of saying the wrong thing.

Analysts are not paid to "predict" the future, they are paid to publicly manipulate the stock market with their reports. The average AppleInsider reader could come up with better predictions since they have no financial interest invested in the outcome!

Anyway, my take is that the Amazon tablet will do well because it'll be a) cheap b) have content to sell you and c) have an easy to use interface three things no Honeycomb tablet does very well. For some reason Android has a UI dominated with black, and that's never been appealing to me.

Price point is the key! If the Amazon tablet is cheap they will fly off the shelves! Not sure the OS will make a difference to the average consumer, I still think if they cost the same as the iPad then they will still purchase an iPad!

Yes, price is everything here. It was hilarious watching the other tablet wannabes attempt to peddle tablets that cost MORE than the iPads. Idiots. Only Amazon seems to have realized that the opportunity lies in making a profitable product that can be sold for significantly less than an iPad, even if it's of lesser quality. Apple cannot address that market segment at this point because it's all they can do to get their existing product (iPad of course) out. It's the same thing that happened at the beginning of the iPod product cycle - there were no cheaper iPods, no Nanos or Minis.

The field for cheaper tablets is wide open right now. In a year or two or maybe three - when it can get its arms around it - Apple will slam that door shut. Even now, they're being very clever about it - witness their program to give used original iPad models away to schoolchildren for free. Philanthropic, certainly, but also no one can compete with free, so no one can get their foot in that particular door.

Kind of a misleading argument. Android phones have gotten to the point where you can see buy-one-get-one-free deals, or even pay-nothing with new contract deals. I've never seen that for iphone.

I mean hell, my Fascinate, which is a pretty decent Android phone, can be had for free through Amazon last I checked.

Correct.

Android's marketshare growth has been driven by the race to the bottom. It's actually more prevalent in southeast Asia where cheapo no-frills Android phones are being shoveled out. They aren't really being used like smartphones. They end up being used more like touchscreen feature phones: voice calls, texting, e-mail, maybe viewing the occasional web page.

There are massive numbers of Android phone users who aren't downloading apps, etc.

Analysts are not paid to "predict" the future, they are paid to publicly manipulate the stock market with their reports. The average AppleInsider reader could come up with better predictions since they have no financial interest invested in the outcome!

Quoting professional financial analysts is really a disservice to tech media readers. These guys are really inaccurate. The ones most often quoted: Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, and Katy Huberty are amongst the worst predictors of Apple's behavior. It's quite pathetic, to be honest that educated human beings are forced to confront their garbage in print.

Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.

Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.

No Android phone comes anywhere close to beating the iPhone. The sum of ALL phones sold that happen to have Android as an OS may be greater than the number of iPhones sold. But that is not really a valid or fair comparison. If you want to compare on that level, you should add all iOS devices, iPod touch, iPad, etc, and then you will have a bit different picture.

I stand by my prediction, and that it will hold for the next couple of years at least.

Amazon's tablet will do ok, I think. They have an ecosystem, it will be easy for people to spend money on/via it (existing credit card details, 1-click etc), it just comes down to how much the initial outlay will be.

Indeed. The Amazon tablet is a completely different value proposition from the Android tablets and aimed at a different market altogether.

The fact that these "analysts" don't seem to see the difference casts more doubt on their predictions more than anything else they say.

Or should they take past performance, current information, and their collective experience to make educated guesses in the hopes of guiding others who don't have the time and resources to do such homework?

Kind of a misleading argument. Android phones have gotten to the point where you can see buy-one-get-one-free deals, or even pay-nothing with new contract deals. I've never seen that for iphone.

I mean hell, my Fascinate, which is a pretty decent Android phone, can be had for free through Amazon last I checked.

Actually there's been a few "free iPhone" deals with contract outside the US. IIRC there was one recently in North America as well. One of the higher profile examples is in Japan where the iPhone carrier has had an ongoing "free iPhone with contract" offer since back in 2009. Yet Android still manages to outsell the iPhone nearly 2:1 in Japan. I don't think it's all about the money all the time.

Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.

A colleague of mine bought an iPad (after saying for months that he didn't need one) and has found that it has replaced his laptop 90% of the time (pretty much like myself).

I think the "traditional" notebook industry may struggle to bounce back - for the remaining 10% of the time, my laptop will suffice (and because of the reduced handling/usage, will hopefully last much longer).

Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.

Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.

Android phones do not outsell iOS phones, they are given away by cellphone companies, meaning there are more in circulation. Every iPhone out there is purchased either directly or through an upfront cost and loaded monthly fee to the cellphone provider. The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.

Fact: Many here predicted that Android phones would never do well. Fact: Android phones now outsell iOS phones.

Fact: Many here predict that Android tablets will never do well.

Conjecture: Maybe yes, maybe no.

Fact: Nobody knows the future.

In a prior thread, in response to someone saying, "Does the prediction for iPad market share four years form now seem ridiculously optimistic to anyone else here???", you responded, "Yes. Fatuous even."

Actually there's been a few "free iPhone" deals with contract outside the US. IIRC there was one recently in North America as well. One of the higher profile examples is in Japan where the iPhone carrier has had an ongoing "free iPhone with contract" offer since back in 2009. Yet Android still manages to outsell the iPhone nearly 2:1 in Japan. I don't think it's all about the money all the time.

Android phones do not outsell iOS phones, they are given away by cellphone companies, meaning there are more in circulation. Every iPhone out there is purchased either directly or through an upfront cost and loaded monthly fee to the cellphone provider. The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.

Um, there are no free Android phones either. The costs are absorbed by the carrier in return for your long-term commitment to a contract. No different from the iPhone, which is also offered "free" outside the US. So yes, overall Android phone sales as a percentage of market share well exceed those of Apple's iPhone line.
(Disclaimer: This has no direct relationship to profits from smartphone sales, which haven't been updated in a long time AFAIK. Unclear what the current numbers are.)

In a prior thread, in response to someone saying, "Does the prediction for iPad market share four years form now seem ridiculously optimistic to anyone else here???", you responded, "Yes. Fatuous even."

Quoting professional financial analysts is really a disservice to tech media readers. These guys are really inaccurate. The ones most often quoted: Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, and Katy Huberty are amongst the worst predictors of Apple's behavior. It's quite pathetic, to be honest that educated human beings are forced to confront their garbage in print.

You're forgetting that one thing that accounts for this is that the "analysts" have the additional pressures due to the fact that they are professional analysts. If Joe Blogger says that Apple is going to have $200B in revenue and they are wildly off, then no one cares. If a professional analyst is too far afield (esp to the upside) then there are professional and legal ramifications. The system encourages them to be conservative, there isn't as much downside to under predicting (to a point).

On the other hand, hasn't the iPhone in Japan been limited to just one carrier? That could easily have offset any advantage from having free phones. A better comparison would be sales on that carrier.

According to one of the articles I linked, the Japanese iPhone wasn't selling well at all, which is why they elected to try a "free with contract" offer to give it a boost. Two years later it's still offered free.

Price point is the key! If the Amazon tablet is cheap they will fly off the shelves! Not sure the OS will make a difference to the average consumer, I still think if they cost the same as the iPad then they will still purchase an iPad!

Maybe. I love Amazon, it is my favorite company. But if the rumors are true, it feels like a mistake. No e-ink, fine if you keep the traditional kindle. Two-finger cap touchscreen? WTF, something does not add up here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ConradJoe

Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.

Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.

Android phones are not a single unit you might compare Android to iOS, but please find some actual numbers and don't just extrapolate googles activation numbers, they only report anomalous peaks. Even this will require some substantiation that the Android platforms you are comparing are actually compatible with each other.

You may compare the sales of the S2 against h iPhone 4. You can compare Apple phone sales to Motorola phone sales. You can compare Samsung smartphone sale to Apple smartphone sales. It is absurd to just toss Android out there like it is something.

According to one of the articles I linked, the Japanese iPhone wasn't selling well at all, which is why they elected to try a "free with contract" offer to give it a boost. Two years later it's still offered free.

That was an interesting 2009 article, but it seemed to be just speculation based on the price reduction. It's hard to imagine why the iPhone would sell worse in Japan than elsewhere.

Fact: Many here predicted that Android phones would never do well. Fact: Android phones now outsell iOS phones.

Fact: Many here predict that Android tablets will never do well.

Conjecture: Maybe yes, maybe no.

Fact: Nobody knows the future.

Fact THE most popular smartphone worldwide is the iPhone
Fact The second most popular smartphone is the iPhone 3G
Fact The iPhones account for 50% of the profits in the whole cell phone industry.

So it is important to include all the facts. I suppose that yes, Android has done better than many people expected, but it has not "killed" the iPhone either (as some others have predicted). When all is said and done - the iPhone still dominates.

Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.

Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.

The "others" are retarded. What they and apparently every other tablet company can't seem to grasp is that there isn't a market for tablets....there's a market for iPads and things that are almost iPads. The "tablet" market is extremely limited. If Sharper Image were still around, tablets would be sold there. Computer geeks and people that just want gadgets buy "tablets." Everyone else wants iPads. The same market dynamics basically go for the iPhone. People want iPhones, not smartphones, which is one reason RIM is getting its ass kicked. They'll accept things that are "nearly iPhones," but deep down in places they don't talk about at parties, they know they really just bought a copy.

How this simple fact goes unnoticed year after year is beyond me. At least Samsung had the cojones to copy the iPad and iPhone. Despicable and blatant as it is, they at least seem to understand the market. Everyone else is stuck in 1999, when makers were competing against the iMac in the "all in one" market. It doesn't work like that here.

I can only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow doesn't look good either.

I think the above nails it on Android. Additionally I question the word "outsells" when you have no cost phones offered or BOGO deals to flood the market place (Quick how much $ you make on a free phone?). As the above note mentions many Android phones are not revenue generators for their providers like an iPhone - but Android does a great job at displaying ads <surprise !>. Lastly it is crazy to think, like the Appleinsider article suggests, that producers of electronics are "waiting" for the next iteration of Android to create a product to compete with iPad. The problem is they can not compete on cost of materials now with a "free" OS.. how is a new "free" OS going to lower their costs of materials in the future... as Apple continues to dominate in parts procurement? Besides the fact that when you say "tablet" to Joe Average he/she responds "... oh you mean an iPad?".