Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 11

Each player who racked up 6 or more points this week has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be a reasonable action at this time:

Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so.

Hold, and/or monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off.

Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now.

Note that I don't generally include defenders as so much of their value is tied to their team's success rather than their individual skill set.

Dimitar Berbatov 16
Not too much to add here, other than that I wish I'd made space for him weeks back when he returned from injury. The upcoming games are solid, Fulham's attacking prowess have been steadily improving and while his five goals from 11 SoT is a touch higher than his career rate, we wouldn't forecast the kind of regression that would make him significantly less valuable.Status: Buy

Javier Hernandez 15
Once again, call me when he plays for a team where he might start more than once a month.Status: Sell

Marouane Fellaini 13
What more can we say? He leads all midfielders in total shots with 40, and his SiB (34) are twice as many as all but two of his peers (Nolan 27 and Bale 19). His goal this week showed that he's not just getting on the end of set pieces of picking up scraps, while his delightful assist highlights that he has the potential to contribute in all categories this year.Status: Buy

Andreas Weimann 12
Weimann has actually racked up pretty solid underlying stats in his limited time, but of course, he also has limited playing time. Presumably Lambert will get sick of Benteke scoring goals and helping his team succeed like with Bent, at which point perhaps Weimann will play (until of course he succeeds after which he'll be dropped for 14-year old youth prospect). For now though, he remains a pass.Status: Sell

Olivier Giroud 12
Giroud underlying stats are excellent and while we initially pointed that out as merely a retort to the idiotic "he's not scored in his first x games" narrative, they can now be cited when highlighting Giroud as a pretty excellent buy. He is unquestionably better placed to outscore his teammate Podolski and his 14 SoT place him 4th among all forwards despite playing between 150-300 minutes less than his peers. Arsenal's fixtures are a mixed bag which include TOT, @AVL and @EVE in the next three gameweeks, thus making any move for the Frenchman less urgent than one might think. Of course, holding off might cost you a couple of hundred thousand pounds but I'd personally take that trade off if I was happy with my existing player and could afford to wait a couple of weeks.Status: Buy, though ideally wait a couple of weeks until the fixtures get a bit better.

Kevin Nolan 11
As we noted for Fellaini, Nolan is second in SiB among all midfielders and he's been fairly good value for his five goals this term. I've raved about his goalscoring touch in the past and thus I have no concern whatsoever with regards to his 31% on target rate, though his goal conversion rate of 50% is likely high. His lack of assist potential place him a notch below Fellaini for me, but after that Nolan should be right up there when your filling out your mid-level midfield options.Status: Buy

Charlie Adam 10
At a lower price Adam could potentially offer some value given his assist potential and modest goal threat but for 6.6m, six SoT isn't going to cut it.Status: Sell

James Morrison 10
Morrison has finally received a bit of attention of late, and rightfully so given his rare combination of assists (21 chances created) and shots (17 total, 9 SiB). He probably lacks the upside of some of his peers, particularly in the goal column, but equally, the likes of Nolan and Walters offer hardly anything by way of assists so Morrison should still be able to compete in his price bracket. The immediate fixtures don't look outstanding but then they really open up for a very nice run in GW15-18 which includes home games against Stoke, West Ham and Norwich.Status: Buy, though consider deferring until GW15 if you're not in a rush to make a move

Nathan Dyer 9
I like Dyer but he looks like the odd man out in this potentially good Swansea attack and hasn't started in over a month. Swansea have been somewhat inconsistent so I wouldn't be blown away to see Dyer back in the side at some point but for now he's a risk not worth taking.Status: Sell, but monitor his playing time

Alex Kacaniklic 9
It's a similar situation to Dyer here, as Kacaniklic has been good when he's played (indeed he was excellent this week) but he again looks like the player left without a chair when the music stops and we must therefore be patient and can't really consider investment yet.Status: Sell, but monitor his playing time

Luis Suarez 9
I love Suarez's underlying stats and there's no huge concerns about his on target rate (28%) or his SoT conversion rate (44%) which look high but not crazy. The issue I do have however is Suarez's team. Liverpool have been on a steady decline in terms of generating chances each week and they don't forecast to do too well in the coming weeks. While we all know that Suarez accounts for a substantial portion of his teams' shots and goals, at a certain point the pie becomes so small that even a large slice becomes a meagre meal and might not be sufficient to justify his lofty price tag. Though they don't forecast to do too well by the model, it would be premature, even foolish, to consider selling Suarez before a decent looking home fixture with Wigan (though it's harder than you think), but after that three of the next four see them travel to four decent opponents and the chances might just start to dry up.Status: Hold (I'd like to say buy but those team stats are very troubling)

Sergio Aguero 9
The model has liked Aguero over Tevez since he came back to fitness and while his playing time has hindered an explosion of points, he's been very good when played and you have to think his place in the side is now secure for at least a short run of games. There's no science as to what Mancini will do with his lineup but if you believe he'll play Aguero is not only the best option on this City side but as good as anyone in the league (at least when you consider his price tag which is 2.7m less than van Persie).Status: Buy if you believe Mancini will play him

Adam Johnson 8
I had to double check these numbers when I looked them up but Johnson has managed just a single shot on target this year, coming off five total shots. I want no part of the Sunderland team until they can show a vast improvement and at 6.8m Johnson is fairly low down on the list of potential targets even if that does happen.Status: Sell

Theo Walcott 8
I've been a big proponent of Walcott in past years as an undervalued fantasy asset but I'm just not there yet this year. When he's played we've seen some promising signs, with his chance every 36 minutes edging out the likes of Hazard (37), Gerrard (39) and Silva (41) but the playing time is still far too uncertain given the competition for essentially one spare spot on the right, along with Walcott's ongoing contract woes.Status: Monitor

Morgan Schneiderlin 8
A deep deployment and just nine total shots for the year (two on target) isn't going to get it done as a fantasy starter though at 4.4m the fact he simply shows up every week and has some chance of earning points is noteworthy. I'd prefer Puncheon if we knew he'd play but Schneiderlin isn't the worst alternative if you have a transfer to burn and want to shore up your bench with a reliable 5th midfielder for the coming season of suspensions, injuries and postponed games.Status: Buy as a reliable 5th midfielder but nothing more

Bryan Ruiz 8
Ruiz is putting together a decent season so far at Fulham but probably not enough so far to warrant fantasy ownership. His sub-6.0m price tag means he should probably be monitored and his performance this week shows just what he's capable of. His assist potential distinguishes him from practically all other budget forwards (Lambert the main exception who springs to mind) yet with Rodallega and Petric still lurking on the sidelines, I'm not sure we're even sure he's locked into Fulham's side yet and thus probably shouldn't be near yours.Status: Monitor

Chris Brunt 7
Brunt has shown flashes of potential in past years but so far this season he lacks the playing time and the underlying stats to even register on our radar. PassStatus: Sell

David Silva 7
We haven't really seen vintage Silva at all this year though his 12 SiB and 4 SoT suggest he's been unlucky not to register a goal as yet. Even so though, it's tough to argue he's alongside the likes of Mata or Bale right now and it's all but impossible to suggest he offers sufficient upside over Fellaini and Nolan to warrant the extra cost (indeed, he might not even be better straight up). I'm confident that we'll see him again in these pages this year and the story will be rosier but for now he's just simply not giving enough to support his price.Status: Monitor

Nikica Jelavic 7
I love this Everton side and really have no reason to forecast any sharp decline. Their chances have been trending slightly downwards over the past few weeks but not enough to stop them dropping out of the top couple of teams in the league. Jelavic's five goals from 11 SoT might indicate some future regression but when you also consider that he's already racked up 32 totals shots and 29 SiB, those SoT could also increase and thus we wouldn't really expect a massive slow down in goal scoring. They have a couple of tricky fixtures on the horizon but the good games are good enough to justify taking those hits and given Everton's form to date, I'm not sure you'd really be worried about playing the likes of Jelavic or Fellaini anywhere.Status: Buy

Arouna Kone 6
Kone is a tough man to assign a label too as while I love his game and his underlying stats, at 6.5m he is a touch pricey to be rotated regularly yet Wigan have been somewhat inconsistent, underperforming the league average SiB in five of the last six games. In a vacuum I like Kone a lot and if you can't get into the Berbatov price bracket, he's probably about as good as they come, but his team's inconsistency do temper my enthusiasm a bit.Status: Buy if you have to go cheap but ideally just monitor and hope Wigan can show more consistency

Lukas Podolski 6
I really like Podolski as a player and believe he could be a 15-20 goal forward in the right situation. However, his current deployment on the inside left is probably not that situation and his useful assist potential doesn't make up for his limited shots to date (just six SiB, less than Hernandez who's played less than a third as many minutes).Status: Sell, though the fixtures are good enough to make this not a priority if your team is struggling elsewhere (hence the reason he's still on my own team).

6 comments:

I would ask why you are analyzing between those three. As Chris mentioned, none of them really are worthy of investment yet, especially with the likes of Bale, Mata, Fellaini, Nolan and even Morrison around.

Personally, I would go Walcott, Silva, Valencia, with Silva eventually rising to the top (probably sooner rather than later).

Would some input... I am in a draft league so most top players not available... I have Adebayor and am looking at replacing him... I have one transfer between now and end of month then 3 at beginning of Feb...

Chris - I really like this feature and look forward to it every week. It's a great hard edge look at guys you might otherwise knee-jerk in.

You missed a guy this week - Javier Garrido who had a 9 pointer. I brought him in a few weeks ago to rotate H/A with Figueroa. So, of course, he was on my bench this week. I could have played him away, but opted for Clyne at home. Stupid. What is your take, generally on a straight H/A rotation with budget guys?