My blog provides alternative view on Kashmir dispute and politics of South Asia, especially India Pakistan relations. It aims to educate people that they can make informed judgements.

Wednesday, 11 April 2018

CPEC- a relation of dependence. Dr Shabir Choudhry

CPEC- a
relation of dependence. Dr Shabir Choudhry

London11 April 2018

Can there be a business relationship between the poor and the rich based
on justice and equality? Can there be a partnership between weak and strong.
Can weak and poor dictate terms of business or relationship?

Answer to all the above is no. In any case, indication of future
relationship between China and Pakistan was exhibited by Chinese engineers
and other members of staff in heart of Pakistan in Punjab province on Tuesday 3
April 2018. These Chinese are responsible for the construction of M4 Motorway,
which links Bahawalpur to Faisalabad.

The Chinese thrashed the Pakistani Policemen who are
especially recruited to protect these Chinese employees. The
angry Chinese jumped on their vehicles and also disconnected power supply of
the police camp. They also stopped work and ‘abandoned heavy machinery and
vehicles on various roads in the area’, blocking roads.

These Policemen have responsibility to protect lives of
these Chinese; and not to satisfy their sexual needs. The Chinese wanted to go to
‘Red light area’ to satisfy their sexual urge. When the Security Chief refused
the permission to leave the camp because of the threat to their lives, the
Chinese resorted to violence. The policemen were beaten up in their own country
by these foreigners.

According to the media reports, this was not the first
incident of its kind. These ‘Chinese nationals associated with the Chinese army
and trained in martial arts had attacked and injured police personnel deployed
for their security’. 1

The Pakistani officials did not take any action against this
hooliganism of these Chinese, as they did not want to annoy the Chinese.
Instead, they reprimanded the police by suspending seven of them ‘for not
restraining themselves from a clash’. In other words the Pakistani
policemen did not stand idle with their guards lowered in submission; and with their
eyes looking down.

Can anyone imagine Pakistani engineers
or other technical staff going to China or some other country to work on a
project, and beat up their policemen; and get away with it? What does this
incident tell about the relationship on the ground and arrogance of these
Chinese?

When you see Pakistani diplomats and
politicians with suite and tie and big smile on their face after meeting their
Chinese counterparts; don’t think they had easy time in the meeting. They are
trained to put up a brave face and sell this narrative that they had a
brilliant meeting. Fact, however, is a big smile indicates big problems and
tough time in the meeting.

The Chinese employees were not
diplomats. They could not hide their anger; and they did in public exactly what
they thought these Pakistani policemen deserved.

I strongly condemn this arrogance of
Chinese employees, and degrading treatment. Some people emphasise that, in view
of the Chinese, their relationship with Pakistan is that of a master and a
slave; and master, especially in the third world countries feel they have a God
- given right to punish and humiliate their subjects.

East
India Company and East China Company

Many writers compare the CPEC with East
India Company, which came to India for trading purposes. What the East India
Company did to India and Indians after they got some foothold in India is a
long and tragic story. Some people call the CPEC, East
China Company, as they feel their aim is similar to that of the East India Company.
Some Pakistani writers feel that the process of colonialism started by East
India Company has not ended yet.Afzal
Sayal writes:

‘The departure of
colonial powers was nothing but a deception and merely a change of masters.
After seven decades of so-called freedom, the natives of this land are still
being ruled in the same exploitative manner….One of the biggest tragedies that befell
Pakistan right after its inception was that those who were supposed to guard
the country on the borders, ruled the nation and seized the executive and
policymaking’.2

Like many others, this
Pakistani writer, Afzal Sayal, complains about lack of transparency; and feels
all important decisions are made by the Chinese leadership. He thinks the
Pakistanis are ‘only the spectators of this project, and not equal
stakeholders. Is it not enough to suggest that we are being enslaved’?3

Afzal
Sayal thinks if Pakistan has to make an economic progress then
they have to adopt a ‘Middle Eastern model’, whereby local citizens must be
involved with industrial or business enterprises who must be 51% shareholder of
the projects. Similarly, if a foreign firm wants to purchase a piece of land,
they must find a local partner with 51% share. The company’s workforce must
include 50% of the local people. If this is not done, then he asserts, ‘no
one can stop Pakistan from becoming a new Palestine’. 4

Back to IMF or in the lap of China

It
was last, year when Nawaz Sharif was still Prime Minister of Pakistan, in my
book, Is CPEC - Economic Corridor or a Strategic Game Plan, I wrote:

The Sharif Government is having difficult
time in office because of allegations of corruption and estranged civil
military relationship is politically not in a position to go back to the IMF.
According to the news, the ruling party Member confirmed that the government is
reluctant to go to the IMF before the General elections.

Sad thing is it was only last year that
the government returned the IMF debt which was borrowed in 2013, and boasted
that they have broken the begging bowl of the IMF. For some reason, the IMF
loan is ‘politically volatile’; and the government is reluctant to seek more
help with that broken ‘begging bowl’. 5

I also wrote that the N League
government will hold out; and let the caretaker government deal with the loans
and matters related to the IMF because of political issues. Situation got worse
than I and many others expected, and the government is forced to make urgent
arrangements to avert the crises.

Pakistan achieved a growth rate of 5.3% during fiscal year
2016-17, which is highest in a decade,
but it was short of the government’s target of 5.7%. The
government’s economic target for 2017-18 is 6% and many economist analysts
believe that the economy will continue its growth, although it may not achieve
the set target.

On 4th April 2018, the IMF
expressed its serious concern‘over Pakistan’s weakening
macroeconomic situation, including widening external and fiscal imbalances.’

The IMF Executive Board expressed its concern over the
country’s deteriorating economic situation; and believed that deficit was set
to hit 5.5% of the GDP, almost 505 billion rupees. Due to improved power supply
and the CPEC related investment, the economy is expected to grow by 5.6% during
the fiscal year of 2017/18.

After decision of the Financial Action Task Force to put
Pakistan back on the ‘grey list’, the IMF suggested a number of actions to be
taken to enhance anti money laundering and counter terror actions. Also, the
government was urged to improve its governance and to strengthen social safety
nets, and create business climate. How effectively Pakistani state deals with
these matters will determine future course of Pakistan’s economic recovery.

In Pakistan, national interest has
always been secondary to the political and personal interests, although they
always portray that everything they do is in the ‘national interest’.

Pakistani government is advised not to
approach the IMF for more funds to pay back instalments of existing loans
because politically it will be suicidal. Apart from that, there is
understanding that the IMF will create hurdles in the progress of the CPEC
projects. Recently, a source of Ministry of Finance revealed that:

“An IMF package would put the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a $60-billion lifeline – at stake
because the IMF does not approve of the project in view of the poor health of
the economy.” 6

Punjab’s President of the Pakistan
Tehrek e Insaf, and Imran Khan’s Chief Political Advisor, Ejaz Ahmed Chaudhry,
while talking to the Asia Times, said:

“If I am not wrong the country had to
repay foreign loans worth 6 billion US dollars by the 31st of March
this year, which it could not do due to the external account deficit and fast
depleting foreign exchange reserves”. 7

The current shortfall is over 14
billion US dollars. It is expected that China will pay additional $8 billion.
If China doesn’t pay, then Pakistan will have to approach the IMF, and which
will jeopardise the progress of the CPEC projects. In other words, for safety of
the CPEC and its various projects, China has no choice but to provide more cash
to Pakistan that the country can pay instalments on the loans.

Apart from China, Saudi Arabia has also
been approached for more funds and supply of oil on loan, which Saudi Arabia
has done in the past to support Pakistan. In this context, one can understand
why Pakistan hastily, and without much consideration to the geo political
situation, despatched Pakistan army to Saudi Arabia, probably to be used
against the Muslims of Yemen.

‘Pakistan need $ 15-16 billion worth of
support, but the World Bank, Islamic Development Bank and bilateral credit from
a consortium of donors would raise more than $ 9 billion. We will be left with
a shortfall of around $ 7-8 billion to bridge either through grants and
assistance from friendly countries or from the IMF. He further said, ‘Pakistan’s
economy was passing through a difficult period’. 8

In order to ease pressure on Pakistan’s
foreign exchange reserves, it was proposed by Pakistan that on the CPEC related
bills, Pakistan should be allowed to settle accounts by paying in the local
currency. In this regard, both countries have signed a ‘swap agreement’. China
is doing everything possible to save the CPEC and get Pakistan out of economic
mess, but question arises for how long China will continue to do this, if
Pakistanis are not really concerned about the health of the economy; and which
direction is the country heading.

There is saying, Allah helps those who help
themselves. The question is, for how China will help Pakistan if the leaders
and the establishment of Pakistan doesn’t want to help Pakistan to get out of
problems. Those Pakistanis who say ‘70 years are only a short period in nations
life’ are fooling people that they don’t look at their bad deeds. We know there
are nations which got independence after Pakistan, and they are far ahead of
Pakistan. Sadly, Pakistan is fast moving in the opposite direction.

Why I oppose the CPEC

Sadly, Pakistani ruling elite seem to be more
interested in corruption, promotion of extremism, violence, intolerance and
strengthening of non-state actors and terrorism. Also, they want to strengthen
their military arsenal by development of nuclear warheads and improving missile
system, rather than putting their economic and internal house in order. Public
welfare, health, education, equality rights of women and minorities etc are not
their priorities. They also don’t seem to be too concerned to improve their
international image, as same old and heavily criticised policies are being sold
with different labels.

Whether Pakistan makes any profit out of the
CPEC related projects or not, they will have to start paying back $3.2 billion
per annum from 2019 onwards. This amount will increase to $ 5 billion per annum
by 2022. 9

This astounding amount
could be a gigantic challenge on the Pakistani economy, especially if
the CPEC projects do not yield the projected benefits. Fundamental
question is, has Pakistan economy the potential to repay $5 billion US dollars
per annum on top of the other repayments?Many Pakistani economic experts
question ability of the Pakistani economy to face all the challenges and meet
the economic targets.

I
was discussing economic problems of Pakistan and how this will affect Pakistani
Administered Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan with my friend and a political leader
Abbas Butt. After I gave him a briefing on the growing problems and political
instability of Pakistan, he said:

“Doctors
Sahab don’t worry, Pakistanis know how to fool other countries, and how to
borrow money from others. This is something they have successfully done since
1947. They have mastered the art of borrowing and still complain that not
enough is given to them. In worst case scenario, after failing to repay the
CPEC loans they will give some more land from Gilgit Baltistan and Balochistan
to the Chinese and the loans will be settled”.10

People,
and Pakistani agencies criticise me for opposing the CPEC. Theyalso make unfounded and
illogical accusations against me. My opposition to the CPEC has more than one
dimension. I don’t oppose it because it will make Pakistan strong; and will
empower the people of Pakistan. On the contrary, I oppose the CPEC because it
will create enormous problems for Pakistan, for people of Pakistan, for people
of Pakistani Administered Kashmir, for people of Gilgit Baltistan and for the
entire region.

If
Pakistani economy is in tatters, won’t that affect people of Pakistan. I will
not be happy if innocent people of Pakistan suffer as a result of wrong
policies of their rulers. Their wrong policies already resulted in breakaway of
East Pakistan, and death of nearly 3 million people and imprisonment of nearly
90 thousand army personnel of Pakistan. These wrong policies have also brought
havoc to the remaining Pakistan, which ultimately affects us, people of the
former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir.

People
need to understand that what wrong happens in Mumbai and New Delhi does not affect
us on this side of the divide; but what wrong happens in Rawalpindi and in
Lahore does affect us, and affect us badly. We people of Gilgit Baltistan and
so called Azad Kashmir are controlled by Pakistan, and all the bad things of
Pakistan surely affects us. When the recent exchange rate changed in Pakistan,
resulting in more inflation, and drop in value of rupees, don’t you think it
affected all of us?

Moreover,
a weak Pakistan will result in more instability, more extremism, more violence,
more intolerance, more terrorism and reduced space for moderates and civil
society; how on earth is that going to help me and my people in Gilgit
Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir who are already deprived of fundamental
human rights?

Because
of terrorism Pakistan launched National Action Plan, didn’t that affect us in
so called Azad Kashmir and in Gilgit Baltistan? A stronger and prosperous
Pakistan will be at peace with all neighbours; and will be less inclined to
promote extremism, violence, intolerance and non - state actors.

Apart
from that, if Pakistan defaults, and instability and fear reins, there are
chances that Pakistan may, once again, hand over our territory to China as they
did in 1963. Readers need to be reminded that in 1963, Pakistan handed over
around 2000 Kilometres of territory from Gilgit Baltistan to China that China
can link with Aqsai Chin which they conquered in 1962 in a war with India.

Already,
Pakistan has leased out to China thousands of acres from Gilgit Baltistan; and
China is extracting very valuable minerals which belong to us. These are our
natural resources and no country has a right to loot and plunder our resources.

If,
after knowing all that, I remain quiet, then I am not a loyal son of the soil.
I am not a well - wisher of people of Pakistan; and I am not a concerned
citizen of South Asia. I believe, we all have to live as good neighbours in
South Asia. We cannot afford to continue to live in constant fear. We have to
abandon this policy of confrontation and promote peace and understanding in
South Asia.

Conclusion

Like
many neighbours, India and Pakistan also have unresolved disputes. However,
unlike many other neighbours, relationship between India and Pakistan are
getting from bad to worse with added bitterness and hatred. There are people on
both sides which want to ensure that there is no peace between India and
Pakistan; and for this purpose, they want to erect very high walls of hatred
and intolerance.

China
and India have unresolved disputes and they have had military clashes too; but
one does not see hatred and intolerance between them as there is between India
and Pakistan.

At
present, arch rivals - India and Pakistan do a direct trade of $2 billion
dollars only. According to the World Bank, if India and Pakistan had cordial
relations, and they ease visa restrictions then they have potential of taking
their bilateral trade up to $30 billion, which will surely help their economies
and bring prosperity. 11

Instead
of easing the tension and creating conducive environment for peace and harmony,
both sides ‘indulge in the shameful practice of harassing each other’s
diplomats’. Both India and Pakistan are only harming their national
interests. They need to learn from China, which despite disputes with India and
America trade with each other. China’s trade with India is around $85 billions.

Despite lofty claims
and extremely high praises, trade between Pakistan and China is still hovering around $ 20 billion US
dollars. As pointed above, China’s trade with India is around $85 billion. This
shows three things:

1/ Trade can continue despite
outstanding disputes.

2/ India is China’s
major trading partner.

3/ China would not
like to harm its national interest – trade with India for the sake of Pakistan.

Pakistan
needs to care for its national interests, which is not best served by becoming
a proxy of other countries; or by constant confrontation with its neighbours.
It is high time that the Pakistani policy makers examine their policies; and
abandon old policies of confrontation.

The
CPEC may give some infrastructure and provide dams and power supply to
Pakistan, but in the long run, it will prove to be catastrophic for Pakistan.
The Pakistani economy does not have the capacity to pay back the CPEC debts and
meet other outstanding financial commitments.

In
any case, the CPEC is a project of two unequal partners. Pakistan will always
be a junior partner parading on the instructions and demands of the senior
partner. With time, the Pakistani people and the ruling elite will understand
that they are in a quagmire, from which it will become difficult to escape
without some external help.

With
time Pakistan’s dependence on China will increase. The ruling elite will
realise that they are more dependent on China, then they were with America and
Saudi Arabia. With time their dependence on China will increase, making the
country more vulnerable and almost a colony of China.

Education Minister of
Sindh, Jam Mehtab Hussain Dahar said, “Pakistan’s economy is going to collapse
like that of Greece’s in the next 10 years”.

He said this, while addressing
the inauguration ceremony of a conference, titled ‘International Conference on
Transforming Economic Development: Policies and Strategies’. The Conference was
organised by the Applied

Economics Research
Centre (AERC) at the ICCBS, Karachi University. He further said:

‘Pakistan is heading towards a social and economic hurricane
that will cause great damage. The economic hurricane will
sweep away much of the current economy and Pakistan’s assumptions about the
future’. 13

Another Pakistani
economist Dr. Nadeem-ul-Haq said:

“[A]part from the danger of becoming a
colony, the project may undermine [Pakistan’s] sovereignty as its foreign
policy, especially with India… will be dictated by China.”

Senator Tahir Mashhadi, Chairman of the Senate Standing
Committee on Planning and Development said: “Another East India Company is
in the offing; national interests are not being protected. We are proud of the
friendship between Pakistan and China, but the interests of the state should
come first”.14

All the above exhibit bitter facts
about the CPEC, which the Pakistani political and military elite does not want
people to know. As a true nationalist of Jammu and Kashmir; and well - wisher
of Pakistani people, it is my duty to present facts as I see them. It is their
right to accept them or reject them; at least, they cannot complain that no one
caution them.

Writer is a renowned
writer and author of many books. He is also a senior leader of UKPNP and
Chairman South Asia Watch, London.

About Me

Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.

Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.

Political Achievements

Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.

Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.

Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.

Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.

.

At present, he is:

·Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;

·Spokesman for International KashmirAlliance;

·Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;

Previously

·A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.

·Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.

·Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.

·Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.

·Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.

·Addressed at CambridgeUniversity as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.

·In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was:“Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.

·Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.

·Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.

·Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.

·Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.

·Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.

·Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.

·Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.

·Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and

Publications

·Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.

·Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.

·Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.

·Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'

·Apart from that has twenty books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.

·Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it

·Different perspective on Kashmir

·JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir

·Kashmir Needs Change of Heart

·If not self - determination then what?

·Emma Nicholson report- who has won?

·Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)

·

Future publications

Following books were completed some time ago and shall be published in near future:

In Search of Freedom - My visit to Srinagar and Islamabad

Kashmir and Partition of India

A brief background

Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shimali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.

In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.

He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.

Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.