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Thursday, 14 June 2012

Digging deeper into next fall and winter

I think we will see a shifting of the cool starting in october. September will be a warmer then normal month, followed by a transition to cold and a wetter october. I expect november to be colder then normal. There is a bit of a conflict with the modelling, as I don't think NOAA is handling the SST's well. I believe that the PDO will start weakening to more neutral/positive conditions which will then cause next late fall and winter to be very cold in the eastern and central U.S. Also NOAA isn't picking up on the modiki ENSO trend that will be showing up going into the fall and winter. Look how similar NOAA's forecast is to all el nines since 1951, which shows that they are not looking.Fall:

Reduced 11%

719 x 668 (19.51K)

Winter:

Reduced 11%

719 x 668 (17.89K)

Now look what all El Ninos look like since 1951 in winter:Weirdly its very close to that idea in winter but not as much in Fall:Also weird it looks almost identical to warm PDO el ninos for next winter:Much different then what an el nino off of a double nina in a cold PDO overall with a spike to warm in the PDO looks like. It seems like they aren't really digging into this and therefore I should make my own predictions not based solely off of modelling!And Fall:This shows that you shouldn't be dependent on modelling when it might not have a clear view on next winter yet. I will wait until fall to put to much stock into NOAA's modelling (with regards to temperatures) as things pan out. I think it is more important to look at the SST's on the various climate models.The CFSv2 is showing the PDO weaken to about neutral which would promote a western ridge and an eastern trough. It is also keeping the warm water connected to the south american coast which seems out of touch and unlikely at this point. Nonetheless, I am glad to see the warming of the PDO on some of the modelling which I have been saying is the most important driver along with the position of the warm water.

If you compare it to what fall and winter will look like in a cold PDO you can see a colder fall but warmer winter. Fall would still be cool in a warm PDO but just as frigid as a cold one. Worth risking for a colder winter.Fall:

Although precipitation is above normal in the winter time (it appears as though the storm track is further northwest which is good for ontario in an el nino which usually favours a southeast stormtrack).Warm PDO spike winters precip is below normal:

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