Senators GM Pierre Dorion must also look ahead to 2019 draft

Considering the craziness surrounding the Ottawa Senators in recent weeks and the potential fireworks of the week to come, the 2019 National Hockey League draft isn’t priority one for general manager Pierre Dorion.

To be sure, trying to get the best possible trade returns for Mike Hoffman and/or Erik Karlsson, along with making the most of the fourth- and 22nd-overall selections, could be franchise-changing.

Maybe, just maybe, Dorion can accomplish all of that and recoup a first-round draft pick to replace the team gave to the Colorado Avalanche in the trade for Matt Duchene last November.

The Senators can either give the Avalanche their fourth-overall pick in the first-round of the 2018 draft on Friday or their first round selection in 2019.

Barring a shocking move, though, the Senators are expected to keep the 2018 pick. Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk are among the possibilities for Ottawa, which hasn’t had a top-five selection since Jason Spezza was selected second overall in 2001.

It’s rare for such a high pick to move. The last time a top-five pick was traded on draft day was in 2008, when the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired the fifth choice from the New York Islanders — selecting Luke Schenn — in exchange for conditional second- and third-rounders.

Whatever route the Senators choose, Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic is sitting pretty. Should the Senators fully adopt a rebuilding approach — a likely direction if Karlsson and Hoffman are both gone — they will most likely be a bottom-rung squad. The worse the Senators do, the better the odds that Avalanche will secure the first pick overall in 2019, with Jack Hughes regarded as the consensus choice.

That’s one of the many issues for Senators management as they make their way to Texas.

We’re assuming Dorion hasn’t slept much since assistant general manager Randy Lee was apprehended on non-criminal harassment charges in Buffalo on May 30. The Senators have suspended Lee indefinitely earlier, pending the outcome of a court appearance on July 6, leaving an already thin staff even more shorthanded going into its most weekend of the year.

Without his right-hand man at the draft table, Dorion will do his best to make a deal that brings back a first-round selection in 2019.

It won’t come, of course, from dealing Hoffman, whose value has plummeted amid the controversy surrounding him since Karlsson’s wife obtained a protection order against Hoffman’s fiancée, alleging prolonged cyberbullying. Picking up much more than a late-round pick would be a surprise.

However, a 2019 first-round pick could certainly be involved in a package for Karlsson. The Senators are also currently without a second- or third-round pick this weekend.

Erik Karlsson would bring a generous return for the Senators, but trading the captain wouldn’t guarantee a shot at the draft lottery in 2019, either.Andre Ringuette /
NHLI via Getty Images

While it’s unlikely any team acquiring Karlsson would miss the playoffs in 2019, there are no guarantees, so there would be at least a possibility of the Senators having a shot at the draft lottery next year.

As for potential trade partners, we’ve gone here before and we’ll go there again. The New York Rangers are in position to go big, having three first-round picks and seven selections in the opening three rounds this weekend. Next year, they have three picks in the first two rounds.

On top of that, they’re in the type of situation the Rangers rarely find themselves in: available salary-cap room and then some. At this point, they have only $37.85 million in salaries on the books for 2019-20, leaving plenty of space to sign Karlsson to a lucrative extension.

Dorion has earlier said that he would not trade the Senators captain at the draft in Dallas and that the club would offer Karlsson an extension on Canada Day, as allowed under the NHL’s collective agreement. That may still happen, but typically the best opportunity to make a blockbuster deal comes at the draft.

After July 1, most teams set their sights on re-stocking through free agency, rather than via trade.

If, as expected, the Senators are not in the race for a playoff spot at the 2018-19 trade deadline, they would be sellers. However, any team in position to give up a first-round pick at that point would almost assuredly be playoff-bound, meaning they wouldn’t be included in the draft lottery.

Add that all up and the best chance to restore the lost first-round pick could very well come during the next few days.

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