Top parties adopt 'wait and see' tactics in UP

ET spent a week in Lucknow, talking to leaders of various camps on their strategies.

Priyanka Gandhi is said to have told workers in Lucknow that in keeping with their wish the party would partner any party in UP.

It has been over a month since Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati announced a 38-38 seat sharing formula in Uttar Pradesh, but the leaders have delayed announcing the seats. The Congress is buoyed with Priyanka Gandhi's entry and is looking at alliance with small parities to register its presence. The incumbent BJP is prepping to change many of its 68 MPs to battle anti-incumbency and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to campaign the most in the state.

It is a wait-and-watch game in UP as all three camps, with a triangular fight ahead, are measuring up the other and preparing a campaign pitch for their vote banks. ET spent a week in Lucknow, talking to leaders of various camps on their strategies.

SP-BSP-RLD CampThe informal deal is that the Bahujan Samaj Party would contest 38 seats, the Rashtriya Lok Dal would get three including one Samajwadi Party leader fighting on an RLD ticket, and SP putting up candidates in 37. Though the seats are said to be mostly identified, those are still to be officially announced and the BJP is questioning if fissures have cropped up. The Congress camp claims the SP and BSP have gone back to the drawing board after Priyanka's entry. Leaders of the alliance, however, dismiss any delay and say it would in fact be early if the seats and candidates are announced right now — they ask why have the BJP and Congress not declared candidates in that event. "The election is in April. Everything will be announced this month," senior Samajwadi Party leader Rajendra Chaudhary said.

The BSP has declared 'prabharis' (in-charge) for many seats — like former BSP MLAs, Haji Yakoob Qureshi in Meerut and Mohd Iqbal for Bijnore. They are also expected to be the candidates. The good relations are also reflected in the way SP and BSP leaders have been jointly protesting against the BJP in the UP assembly and outside. BSP's Vidhan Sabha leader Lalji Verma accompanied SP leaders last Wednesday to meet governor Ram Naik after Akhilesh was stopped from going to Prayagraj. Mayawati too issued a statement condemning the action against Akhilesh. But SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav's statement wishing Narendra Modi another term as Prime Minister came in as an unexpected shock for the alliance. Mayawati has remained silent on this while Akhilesh issued a statement, merely saying that the country would see a new PM.

Congress CampSpeaking to workers in Lucknow, Priyanka asked their opinion on whether the Congress should go for an alliance. After the workers said 'alliance nahi hona chahiye' (alliance should not happen), she is said to have told them 'toh alliance nahi hoga' (then, the alliance won't happen). This came amid feelers exchanged between the Congress and SP, post Priyanka's entry, going nowhere due to Mayawati showing no interest in a realignment. The Congress has now moved to a Plan B — getting along small parties to get its own caste-matrix right. Priyanka has announced an alliance with the Mahan Party whose Khushwaha leader Keshav Dev Maurya criticised both the SP and BSP in her presence. The Congress is also said to be considering an alliance with backward parties of Om Prakash Rajbhar and Shivpal Yadav if they agree on a reasonable number of seats.

Mulayam's statement on Modi was music to the Congress ears as it could bring Muslim voters to its fold. In 2009, the Congress won 21 seats in UP after Muslims flocked to it following Mulayam joining forces with Kalyan Singh. Holding on to Muslims is crucial for the alliance. Mayawati last week criticised the Congress for invoking National Security Act against Muslims for cow-slaughter in Madhya Pradesh. A Congress alliance with Shivpal Yadav could further upset the SP and BSP, given the SP dissident leader led the assault on Mayawati in the UP guest house incident and Akhilesh has no love lost for his uncle. The Congress should in that event not expect "co-operation" in Amethi and Rae Bareli, the two seats held by Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi that the SP-BSP-RLD alliance plan not to contest, an SP leader said. Enthusiasm for the Congress is hardly visible on the ground, as ET found, even in its strong-hold seats of Lucknow and around.

BJP CampWhile it battles anti-incumbency that could lead to many of its MPs being denied tickets, BJP leaders say this is not an election of Priyanka but a face-off between the BJP and the SP-BSP-RLD alliance. The 10% upper-caste reservation move will nullify any dent to such votes that the Congress may have caused while divisions within the SP could benefit the BJP this time too, like in the 2017 assembly polls, party leaders feel. The BJP has put up hoardings in Lucknow thanking Mulayam for wishing Modi to become the PM again — the party sees Muslims votes getting split in UP now. While the SP and BSP are still to hit the campaign trail, BJP has already started its campaign with Modi visiting UP seven times this month. The BJP is also looking to counter farmer anger over stray cattle with the PM Kisan Nidhi, the cash-transfer scheme to be launched by Modi from Gorakhpur.