Righteo! Firstly welcome to the 21st Calvin’s Captains for the season and hopefully this week I can drill you a ripper to get you through to the BIG Grand Final next week. Last week a massive 90% of people followed my top 3 picks in Swan (116), Goddard (119) and Ablett (143). My other picks were rather dirty in Montagna and Goodes, but if you listened and went with one of my top 3 picks you’d be rather happy.

Anyway, lets get into the real stuff and roll the exact same way as we did last week. I’ll cover what I see as the main players in the league at the moment and really the only players you’d be considering with the role as your captain this week. Fingers crossed we can find a ripper.

LEIGH MONTAGNA

Vs Richmond @ Ethihad

Why? Well, last time he played the Tigers he had his 2nd highest score for the year (146pts). In that game he had 29d and a huge 10m. Yeah yeah, he had a shocker last week but he does usually bounce back pretty well. In Rd. 12 he had his worst score of the year (65) and bounced back the previous week with a 128. Then in Rd. 17 he had 68 and then had 110 the following week. So it’s safe to say that he bounces back reasonable well.Why Not? Well, as I have just said, last week he did have his 2nd worst score of the year of just 67pts and his form hasn’t been overly great. Yeah he had 146 in his last against them but before that he had 85, 50 and 94 with an average of 93 in his last 3 against them. He hasn’t been smashing up Etihad either with a high of just 110 in his last 4 there this year averaging 93 in his last 3 too.Final Thought – Jake King tags Dal Santo, he did last time and held him to 70, so he’ll go to him again and it should free up Monty and Lenny again. However after his last week’s score… I’m worried. He could score you anything between 80 to 140 this week I reckon and based on that, I’m saying too risky.Predicted Score – 115

PAUL CHAPMAN

Vs Carlton @ Etihad

Why? Last time he played the Blues he had 28d for his 103pts. That was in Rd. 5 this year where the Blues won by 36pts. Before that he hasn’t played them in ’09 or ’08 so it’s a little hard to judge his historical form against them.Why Not? He does really like playing at Eti where he has had 99 and 107 in his last 2. He love Skilled Stadium where he averages 127 from his 6 games there this year. After a smashing year, Chappy has slowed down a little as he has only averaged 98 in his last 3 this year. The Blues are his worst team to play across his career of 9 games against them, as he averages just 74 over that time. With that said though he hasn’t played them too many times later in his career where his form has obviously been better. Plus, after he was shaken by the unexpected Picken tag last week… will Carrz target him this week?Final Thought – Chappy is chappy. Gun player who’d be a lock for 100+. But this week I’m not liking his chances to get a massive one.Predicted Score – 108

DANE SWAN

Vs Crows @ MCG

Why? Last week Swanny had 116pts and was locked in by 65% of coaches! He has a low of just 110 in his last 11 games and is clearly everyone’s ‘go to’ captain at this stage of the year. He has cracked 110+ = 85% of the time this year. 120+ = 40% of the time this year and 140+ a nice 25% of the time. Showing he can get you big numbers and get the job done. He’s back at the MCG where he has averaged 118 for the year and 126 in his last 5 this year. Last time he played the Crows was in the Semi Final in 2009. He had 112 that day but finished the year with a shit final series where he averaged just 90. The Pies won the Semi by 5pts and Swanny racked up 28d, 6t. Shirley tagged Didak who only had 67, so I reckon the same tag will happen again. Oh and Swanny has averaged a massive 136 in his last 4 night games! Weird stat, but I guess he likes the dark!Why Not? He averaged 110 on the Crows in 2009 from his 3 games, making them his 5th worst team to play. He had scores of 112, 103, 115. Righteo, bare with me on this one… Last week Swanny got off to a rocket of a start and had 68 at the half and then had 48 in the second. His quarter break downs where 38, 30, 29, 19. Then I hear at half time in the match last week (when the game was in the bag) that Swanny was a chance to be bench and rested for the remainder of the game. So I’m worried that his time on ground dropped (as did his points) as the game went on as the game was over. So what will Swanny’s TOG be like this week? What will happen if the Pies blow the Crows away early? Will he even play? Things we need to consider, but not to be over concerned about I think.Final Thought – Yeah Calvin, he’ll play and play well in the dark. The Pies have momentum and they can not risk slowing down the train. He’ll be fine.Predicted Score – 129

JOEL SELWOOD

Vs Carlton @ Etihad

Why? His form has been red hot as he averages 125 in his last 5 games this year. He had 139 last week against the Dawgs and that game was at Eti where he plays this week. He averages 102 on the Blues in his last 3, with scores of 86, 128 which was in 2009 and then a 91 back in 2007.Why Not? Last time he played these guys he had a poor 86 (back in Rd. 5 this year). In that game he had 19d and posted his 2nd worst score for the year. This worries me.Final Thought – His form is ridick-ulously good, but Carrz will tag someone and I reckon Joel might be on his radar, plus he had just 86 in his last. You can find a safer bet I reckon… with that said…Predicted Score – 109

ADAM GOODES

Vs Western Dawgs @ SCG

Why? He smashes the Dawgs! 103, 126, 42, 100, 110 are his last 5 scores against them. In his last game against them he had 103. That day he had 20d and 4g and Morris had his hands full with him. This week, he’s back at the SCG where he has had 115 and 158 in his last 2 there to go with the average of 104 in his games there this year. It’s also worth noting that the WBD have given up the most 100+ scores in the last few weeks (15). Might be a few more to go around. His form has been smashing too with an average of 126 in his last 5… before last week’s game Vs Freo…Why Not? In the game against Freo last week he stunk it up for just 57. He only had 15d and fail to do anything DT wise.Final Thought – You can’t go a captain who had just 57 last week, unless you want to risk it mega. It might happen again, and double 57 for your captain … umm, you might as tell your family and friends you are going away for a while… DT suicide.Predicted Score – 99

LENNY HAYES

Vs Richmond @ Etihad

Why? Cause it’s Lenny Hayes for god sake! He had 107 last week and that was with 52 in the 1st quarter. He averages 118 in his last 5 this year and averages a neat 100 on the Tigers in his last 3 with a nice 105 and 113 in his last 2 against them. Lenny is home sweet home again this week where he has a nice run of 10X100+ scores in a row. Lenny has scored 100+ a massive 88% of the time in his last 16 games this year and is one of the sure bets! Last time he played the Tigs he scored 105 with some attention from Tuck, and had 21d and a massive 11t. In fact, Lenny averages 7t a game this year (an easy 28pts) and has cracked double figure tackles on 4 occasions with one of those games against Richmond. Enough reasons?Why Not? Don’t have any. Only that there might be other players who might have a bigger 100’s than Lenny this week. But yeah, I have nothing.Final Thought – Lenny will avoid any tags this week and has the history, form and home ground will all massive ticks next to them. Look for a good one again, and yet another 100+ score to add to his impressive record.Predicted Score – 125

GARY ABLETT

Vs Carlton @ Etihad

Why? He had 143 last week! With 39d and avoided any sort of tag. He averages 126 in the last 3 games this year and is currently running hot. The Blues are his favourite team EASY to play DT wise, placing Gary well and truly on your radar this week. Over his career of 8 games against them he averages 104 with an average of 113 in his last 3 against them. His previous scores look like this… 145, 71, 123, 109. That 145pts was back in Rd. 5 this year, which was his 2nd highest score of 2010. He had 33d, 2g that day and was the games top scorer. Joseph tried to tag him, but it obviously didn’t work.Why Not? The only thing I can find that concerns me here is the 71 he had 2 games back against the Blues. So I investigated it. That was in 2009 (Rd. 19) where the Blues won by 35pts. Gary had 24d that day and was tagged and beaten by Joseph. The 71 he had that day was his lowest score of 2009!Final Thought – His form is hot and he did have 145 in his last game against the Blues. Gary has to be a lock for this week to score massive. Joseph will definitely go to him, but it won’t work.Predicted Score – 125

NICK RIEWOLDT

Vs Richmond @ Etihad

Why? Last week the Voldt had a massive 143. But to make that better he had 121 with a quarter to go and pretty much did whatever he liked. He is back! Mega back! With a low score of just 90 in his last 4 this year, he is clearly back and going very well.Why Not? Few reasons. He only averages 87 on the Tigers in his last 3 with scores of 94, 55 and 117. The 94 you see there was in 2009 where he had 17d, 2g. Plus another reason I’m worried here is… his time on ground. I doubt they will rest him, but with finals for the Saints 1 week away after the Tigers, but if they get up by a lot… he might just sit it out and rest. He hasn’t rested since his lengthy stint on the sidelines with his hammy and must be feeling the heat of being back in the real thing and with finals very close… the Saints are renowned for not taking the risk.Final Thought – Not for me. Too risky as to what the Saints will do with him, plus you should have better.Predicted Score – 90

JIMMY BARTEL

Vs Carlton @ Etihad

Why? Last week Jimmy knocked up 29d for his 107pts. He averages a nice 103 on the Blues and will never be tagged by them! Last time he played them was in Rd. 5 this year where he had 116pts (26d, 8m) where he went head to head with the old McLean. In that game he has the 2nd top scorer! He doesn’t mind playing at Etihad either with an average of 122 in his last 2 games there this year. He should go ok Jimmy based on the above, so watch for a good one from him this week.Why Not? His form hasn’t been great. He only averages 89 in his last 4 this year and has been more up and down than… [insert something dirty].Final Thought – Another dude that might be too risky. Definitely won’t get a tag and might pop up for a solid score. But you’ll have better, somewhere else.Predicted Score – 110

BRENDON GODDARD

Vs Richmond @ Etihad

Why? He had 119 last week and still has a low of just 96 in his last 14 games this year. He averages 113 on the Tigers in his last 3, with scores of 138 and 128 in his last 2 against them with a total of 72d over those 2 games. The 138 he had against them was in his last game Vs them in Rd. 8, which just happens to be his highest score for 2010. He has now cracked the ton an impressive 11 times in a row at Etihad with an average of 115 in his last 3 there to go with his average of 117 there for the entire year. You need anymore?Why Not? Sorry, nothing for you here. Ohh, when will the Saints rest players? Lenny due? Goddard due? Montagna due? Man! I am clutching at straws here aren’t I? Sorry… no reasons!Final Thought – He will not get tagged! He will score his 12×100+ in a row at Eti this week and he will dominate… AGAIN!Predicted Score – 132

MATTHEW BOYD

Vs Sydney @ SCG

Why? His form has been great, he even managed to rack up 35d with 112pts last week against Geelong in a hiding. He averages 113 in his last 3 games this year and that’s with a low of 112 in his last 10 games (excluding the 82). Pretty good effort. He played the Swans back in Rd. 8 and that day he had 29d for his 100pts. Kirk went to Cooney which freed Mr. Boyd up a fair bit. He played the Swans 3 times in 2009 to average 105 and surprisingly enough the Swans are his 2nd favourite DT team to play over his career of 10gms Vs them (behind the Lions).Why Not? He plays the Swan and they are back to being the best DT lock down team in the competition. In the last 3 weeks they have given up only 6×100+ scores and for that reason, I’d encourage you to pass on Matty this week. His last 2 scores this year of 112 and 82 are his 2 lowest scores in his last 10 games this year, still not bad, but Matty can do better. He hasn’t played at the SCG in 2yrs, but when he has he has failed to crack the ton on 4 occasions.Final Thought – He plays Sydney. Risky McDisky! Despite his history Vs them, he’s at the SCG and the Swans are hot at the moment for shutting dudes down.Predicted Score – 91

Righteo… the heavens have opened and a saint has appeared (cleaver pic hey) BUT BUT BUT… Goddard is bloody controversial? I seriously believe that Goddard will out score Swan this week (just)! That’s why he is on top! The others are also in order of how I will pick them. So honestly, it’s Goddard for me. Unless I get too nervous and go Swan, but why would you NOT go Goddard? Both are outright jets and both should be… in fact all those top 5 should be super stars this week!

Who will you have as your captain for Round 10?

Stevie Johnson (56%, 1,686 Votes)

Matthew Boyd (3%, 92 Votes)

Gary Ablett (24%, 718 Votes)

Dane Swan (6%, 176 Votes)

Sam Mitchell (2%, 50 Votes)

Buddy Franklin (3%, 105 Votes)

Michael Barlow (1%, 37 Votes)

Scott Pendlebury (3%, 85 Votes)

Someone Else (2%, 66 Votes)

Total Voters: 3,015

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ROUGHIES

For those who get the urge, and I dont know why you would… but last week we had people after “roughies”. So.. if you are bored and feel like it. Use this and knock yourself out.

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Author: Calvin
Do you need a Captain? Then Calvin will help you out. Don't want a Captain? Calvin will tell you anyway. The man who digs deep into stats will help you pick a great captain and give you plenty of DT advice. Follow him: @CalvinDT.