For historians and political scientists chief model of American political
history has been critical election theory:

A.Portrays American politics as mainly characterized
by periods of very little change: stability from one year to the next.
1.The issues and voter alignments from one election to the next change but very
little.

2.Eras of stability are regularly
interrupted by about every 30 years (once a generation) by political contests
that excite much more passion, more volatility than past contests.

3.Permanent reshuffling of the
allegiances of electorate: people may switch parties in this election and will
continue to vote that way until interrupted by next realignment.

Critical election theory provides a framework to:

1. Organize political
eras into "party systems"

B.In classification schemes for American elections, and in way
historians and political scientists tend to identify or compartmentalize historical
time frames, tend to speak of party systems.

1.Time frames lasting roughly 30 years most easily identified as
one during which one or another of major parties said to be politically
dominant: a majority party and a minority party.

2.In course of American history have been
5 or perhaps party systems, sought to mark out on time line on handout:

a.1st Am. Party system 1792 - 1828.

(1)Conflict between Federalists and Dem.
Reps.

b.2nd Am. Party System, 1828 - 1860.

(1)Jacksonian Democracy -- two major
parties are Whigs and Democrats

c.3rd Am Party System. 1860 - 1892

(1)Newly formed Rep. Party vs. Democrats

d.4th (1896-1932)

(1)Dem. Party taken over by western and
southern Democrats associated with W. J. Bryan and Free Silver campaign of 1896

e.5th New Deal alignment (1932 - 1968)

(1)Franklin Roosevelt

f.Finally may be today in midst of 6th party system

2. Understand the
development of Public Policy

As will see, critical
election theory explains why we have a pattern of brief periods of
activist government interrupting long stretches when govt. accomplishes
very little.

We see periods of
intense government activity at the federal and state level during the early
1860s, the progressive era, the New Deal and 1960s – at the outset of a
party system.

As we’ll see, it is
generally at the beginning of a party system that we find the most
activist and successful presidents -- Washington, Jefferson, Jackson,
Lincoln, both Roosevelts and Lyndon Johnson – who succeed in shaping the
political agenda.

Afterwards, American
politics is generally marked by stasis – little is accomplished, they
tinker with existing programs, often ignore other concerns that are
starting to trouble the public

It is the middle to
latter stages of a party system that you find the more obscure and
unsuccessful presidents: Franklin Pierce, Benjamin Harrison or Herbert
Hoover.

2.To model the behavior of the electorate

We can also come to an understanding of how the common citizen voter relates
to politics.

·Most of the time, the citizenry largely maintain firm
partisan affiliations that determine how they relate to politics. They are
socialized into a party affiliation, and it takes something rather dramatic – a
critical election – to induce them to change their mind.

The partisan pattern to American electoral behavior One striking feature of American politics -- characteristic of party
systems -- is general stability of party vote from one election to next.

1.People or voting districts that tend to
vote Rep in one election will tend to vote Rep. in the next.

2.In the same election, they historically
have tended to vote for the candidates for the same party.

Straight Ticket VotingThe practice of voting strictly on the basis of party – voting for all the
Democratic candidates for office from president down to state legislature – is
termed "straight ticket voting," and is the way most people vote
today and even more so in past.

We can see straight ticket voting at work by considering the election
returns for Democratic candidates for office in Salem County N.J. (a few miles
Sought of Philadephia) in 1880

The Spreadsheet demonstrates that in precinct after precinct, the total
number of votes cast for the Democratic candidate for president about matched
the number cast for the democratic candidates for governor, congress or state
assembly.

Coat-tails
EffectThis is sometimes called the coat tails effect – candidates for lower
offices are elected by riding on the coat-tails of a popular candidate at the
head of the ticket.

But in 19th C. Coat tail effect is less in evidence than people
simply casting a party vote, not necessarily cause they like one candidate more
than others.

Party
Control of GovernmentThe consequence of people voting a straight party vote has been for parties
to be victorious across the board – if a majority of voters in a county voted
for the Republican candidate for president, chances are the Rep. candidate for
congress and state legislature won by similar margins.

So even if the margins were thin
between the parties, the party with a small lead would carry the bulk of
the offices.

B.We can see this when we look at party control of the
presidency and both houses of congress over time. Victory in presidential
elections usually accompanied by control of congress: Until the last third of
20th C., the general pattern at the national level – as well as at
the states – was that whichever party won control of the White House also controlled
both branches of Congress.

1Though 6th is something of an anomaly
(one of many reasons why some dispute there is a distinct party system in this
era)

a.While Reps. so far have clearcut edge
in Presidential elections, they only took control of the House of Reps. in
1994, and have controlled the Senate off and on.

6.Commonly speak of a dominant and a minority party having been
created in aftermath of election, and that party will continue to dominate
elections that follow.

a.Will win most of the elections, will
control most of the government for series of years.

6.Research indicates a shift also occurs
at state and local level: governorships, state legislatures fall same way, as
do local offices.

1.Until
more recent times, since 1968 control of the presidency and congress has been
divided in most years.

Stable party vote
between electionsAnother characteristic of American politics is that People or voting
districts that tend to vote Rep in one election will tend to vote Rep. in the
next.

1880s

We can see this in Salem
County again if one compares the percentage of the vote cast in the 1880
presidential election with that of 4 years later. Again, from precinct to
precinct, the percentages are nearly identical, leading one to suppose
that however people voted in 1880 they did so again in 1884.

This is true of most
elections, where one can discern clear patterns of partisan support
emerging again and again. People not only vote for the same party within
an election – they keep that up between elections.

Pearson Correlation: A
measure of associationb.Historians and political
scientists can summarize these trends statistically with use of correlation
analysis:

(1)Taking 2 sets of numbers, tries to see if there is a
similarity or dissimilarity between them:

(a)Is
there a consistency in general level of support state generates to one party
between elections.
i)When a P.C. approaches 1.0
means 2 sets of elections very much alike in alignment of states.

ii)One election is a replay of the other in terms of where
parties do well and where do poorly

(b)Suggests to us that people are either voting Dem. in both
elections or Rep. in both elections

Abrupt disruptions to patternIt does very occasionally happen that these stable party voting patterns
are disrupted.

We can see that in Salem
County, the closely contested elections between Dems. and Reps. are
abruptly ended in 1896 – and thereafter the Reps. maintain a consistent
edge.

This happened because the
old voting coalitions broke up in the face of issues associated with the
election of 1896 (the Depression of 1893 and the appeal of "Free
Silver")

Correlations that had been
high now drop briefly – reflecting the fact that the electorate is not
voting 1896 the same way they had in 1892.

This is what we call a
critical election – and is followed by a new period of stability.

The
Cycle of American PoliticsCritical elections are distinct phenomenon in American electoral history,
and occur as part of a larger cycle that lasts about a full generation.

We can model how this cycle works as follows.

CrisisThe cycles are begun with the appearance of a major political crisis --
(Great Depression of 1930s and 1890s, sectional crisis of Civil War). The
crisis comes to dominate the political landscape

New IssuesIntroduce a new set of issues to political debate (free silver, free soil,
civil rights).

a.These issues play an important role in
campaign -- people more likely voting on issues than on personalities of candidates
or even their longstanding partisan affiliation

New CoalitionsHas the effect of reshuffling and reinforcing partisan identity.

a.New issues force parties to take new
positions, that impel voters often to switch their allegiances

Critical ElectionNew issues -- often be denounced as radical, unamerican -- surrounded by
enormous controversy, much passion on all sides, draws out unusually large
number of persons to get involved.

a.Elections
become highly polarized, widespread sentiment that very important is at stake.

b.Used
to politicians telling us next election will be of enormous consequence to
American future, only by electing them can we avert catastrophe and ensure
prosperity, security for us and our progeny.

(1)Most
of us take these statements with grain of salt.

c.In
critical election, however, voters more inclined to believe that something very
fundamental is at stake.

(1)Reps.
(like Lincoln) suggest this is a referendum on whether nation is to be one
where slavery exists nationally or freedom exists nationally

(2)In
1890s Bryan would be described as most rabid anarchist by Reps

ReformBut government does change its polity, and when it does so it does it very
quickly in relatively brief time frames:

a.New
initiatives gain sudden support and are rapidly pushed through the political
system:

(1)Slavery: For first 75 years of
government's existence largely accepted as a perhaps a deplorable institution,
but not one public can do much about.

(a)In 1860 Rep. Party elected that claims
only wants to keep it out of territories.

b)Little of this envisioned in 1920s,
most of it never mentioned by FDR in 1932

StabilityOutcome of critical election is generally repeated in each of succeeding
ones:

(1)Persons
tend to affiliate with one or another of major parties in this election, and
remain with that party for rest of lifetime or until next major realignment.

(2)Can
see this in public opinion polls today

(3)Prior
to 1930s (when have few of these polls to work with) can see it from the
election returns.

(a)States, counties, cities that vote
overwhelmingly for Reps in one election, will do so by very nearly same
percentage in next and next and next.

(b)Today we think of that as saying some
states are safely Dem. or Rep. -- people there have demonstrated a pronounced
tendency to vote for one party or other.

i)1988 expect Mass., Minn., Mich., Wash.
DC, RI to go Dem.

ii)Expect S. Car., Kansas, Vermont to go
Rep.

5.Critical election presents a
series of symbols and issues that will remain very much alive for years that
follow:

a.In
aftermath of Civil War Reps in North often referred to their opponents as
"Copperheads:" name attached to Dems. thought to be disloyal during
the Civil War -- or at least unenthusiastic about way Reps. were prosecuting
war.

(1)Even though war is well behind nation,
Reps. try to keep its memory alive at election time.

(2)Bloody Shirt: harangues on confederate
atrocities during Civil War and linking Democrats to the secessionists

b.In wake of New Deal, memory of
Depression and Herbert Hoover and actions of Roosevelt will be resurrected in
each election.

(1)Would be said of Dem. Presidential
candidates that they sought to make each
election a replay of 1932, by reminding voters of Hoover, as
if their opponent was Hoover

Issues DecayAll critical elections are subject to decay, giving way eventually to new
critical realignment

1.Utility
of this tactic weakens over time, as years pass the issues that were important
in last critical election are less relevant or perhaps less truly
controversial, no longer a clear dividing point between the parties.

a.First
few elections after critical election previous issue is very much alive, very
real to electorate, but its appeal weakens.

b.Very
often, minority party also embraces the issues they initially opposed, so that
issue differences between the parties shrinks.

(1)After denouncing "Black Reps."
as abolitionists during the 1850s and early 1860s, Democrats (in South as well
as North) eventually endorse 13th Amendment and show no evidence of trying to
restore institution.

(2)Likewise, Reps. who echoed Hoover in
denouncing actions of New Deal eventually (1940s and 1950s) accept Social
Security, Keynesian economics

c.In
this context, it makes no sense for dominant party to portray its opponent as
reactionaries, old issues have been settled.

d.What
increasingly begins to shake the political system are a new constellation of
issues that become increasingly salient.

(1)During late 1880s and early 1890s Reps.
continued to wave bloody shirt, but now voters are worked up over issues
relating to nation's currency system, prohibition, civil service reform, and
trusts.

.Another important
development is maturation of a new generation of voters, for whom previous
critical election is history.

a.Very
likely take on same party identity of their parents (fathers in particular) but
not hold to it as firmly,

b.Partisanship
has not been forged in the highly politicized atmosphere surrounding critical
elections.

c.Likely
to have been children or not even born at time of Civil War or Depression.

d.Efforts
of parties to revive a deep rooted attachment less efficacious

(1)More likely concerned about issues that
bear on them today -- could be more easily swayed by Third parties or induced
to desert their party.

D.Eventually, once every 30
years (or every generation) a new critical election comes along and system is
revived.

1.Timing
of critical elections reflects confluence of 3 factors:

a.Increasing irrelevance of issues formed
in last critical election

b.Aging of population, bringing into
electorate people who were not around in previous critical period and removal
of persons who were

c.A new major crisis that helps reorder
nation's priorities, bring new issues to the fore, often ones people had been
agitated by third parties in years previous.

b.Once done, those allegiances will
remain strong for elections that follow. previous realignment, are most heavily
influenced by present one.

Third PartiesThird parties may emerge to help put these issues on the political agenda:

(1)Populists,
Prohibition, Greenback

(2)Questions
wholly ignored in 1860s

(3)Third
parties play a very influential role in this process, even if always lose
elections, they

(a)They help force new issues on to the
political agenda.

(b)Often serve as a halfway house for
voters in the new realignment:

i)Whigs
or Dems. are reluctant to switch to opposition all at once, might do so
gradually by first deserting their party of birth and going for a third party.

Third parties put things in place for the next crisis to intervene and
disrupt the pattern – taking us to the next critical election and the next
party system.

First American Party System: (1796-1824)

Federalists vs. Democratic Republicans

a.1st, Dem. Reps. won 7 presidential
elections to 2 for Federalists, who no longer offer much competition in
presidential elections after 1812.

Sectional: Commercial North vs. rural South

Federalist party strength was strongest in New
England, and to a lesser degree New York and New Jersey. Thus there was a clear
sectional division to the party vote in the 1st party system.
Federalists also did better in commercial areas – such as seaports.

The Democratic Republicans were strongest in the
South and in rural areas.

Strict vs. loose interpretation of Constitution

The issues that divided the Federalists and
Democratic Republicans, that emerged in Washington’s Cabinet generally came
back to whether the Constitution was to be interpreted loosely – giving the
national government power to establish a national bank or encourage
manufactures – or very strictly to limit its powers. Federalists – like
Hamilton or Marshall -- looked for a loose interpretation, a view the
Democratic Republicans largely embraced themselves, but only after they
controlled the national government.

Francophobes
vs. Anglophobes

Both parties were also convinced that
the other was conniving with either Great Britain or France to import
their political system to this country. Jefferson
believed the Federalists aimed to reintroduce a system of aristocracy and
the crown, while Federalists feared that the Democratic Republicans
wished to see the ideals of the French Revolution adopted here.

Anti-Party Era

It
is worth remembering – as Silbey points out – that neither major party had
accepted the idea of a loyal opposition. Neither Federalists nor Democratic
Republicans felt political parties had anything but a baneful effect on the
body politic.

2nd American party system (1828-1852)The election of Andrew Jackson in 1828 inaugurates the 2nd
American party system.

Democrats vs. Whigs

Jackson’s supporters would eventually call
themselves the Democrats, and his opponents the Whigs.

a.Dems.
were the dominant party of the era, on average have an edge, winning 50.3% of
vote in these 8 elections.

b.Dem.
party generally victorious (winning 6 of 8)

Non-Sectional,
ethno-religious base

An important feature of this party
system was that it was highly competitive in the north and the south. This way
the parties aimed to suppress any tendencies for sectional issues – slavery –
to emerge. Both parties generally avoided the issue, which was trumpeted
instead by the Liberty and (in 1848) free soil parties.

As Silbey notes, it was often
ethnic and religious affiliations that separated Dems. from Whigs. The Whigs
were the WASPparty (White, Anglo Saxon, Protestants (especially
Congregationalists, Methodists, and Baptists) while the Dems. were increasingly
affiliated with immigrants and the less evangelical religious groups – like
Catholics, Lutherans and a smattering of protestants (like Episcopalians).
Evangelical religious groups aligned with the Republicans shared a common
commitment to stamping out sin and pushed the party to embrace laws outlawing
liquor and slavery,

Banks and the American
System

The issues that came up in
election after election during this era revolved around the formation of a
national bank and an ambitions program of internal improvements (building
roads, canals) and a protective tariff. Each of these were components of Henry
Clay’s "American System" and reflected the Whig Party’s desire to
promote a diversified economy. Democrats – officially at least – opposed such
government activism, feeling that such actions went largely to aid the rich
while oppressing the middling and poorer citizens.

3rd American Party System (1856-1892)The death of the Whig Party in 1854, as the Kansas Nebraska Act brought the
issue of slavery (or at least the extension of slavery into the territories)
front and center, brings an end to the 2md Am party system

Democrats vs. Reps.

The Republican party eventually emerges
in the 1850s as the major competitor to the Dems.

Sectionalism from
"Bloody Shirt"

Although the Civil War decisively
settled the issues that had brought the Rep. party into being – the ultimate
extermination of slavery – the elections that followed dredged up the war again
and again.

People voted the way they shot
during the 3rd Am. party system: White Southerners enlisted in the
Dem. Party and northerners and Afro Americans signed up with the Republicans.

Again and again parties sought to
mobilize their base by claiming that the opposition party was aligned with the
enemy during the Civil War. A popular term was for Northern Republicans
speakers to remind their audiences of the terrible sacrifices of the War (the
bloody shirt) while accusing the Dems. of being less than fervent in defending
the flag – if not conspiring with the rebels.

Highly Competitive

c.3rd:
Extremely competitive, only a 1.4% difference in percentage of vote carried by
two parties

.3rd
and 4th the Reps most likely winners (each case carrying 7 of 9)

(1)In fact, in 2 of presidential elections that Reps. carried
during period (1876 and 1888) Dems. had a plurality of vote.

(2)So based simply on popular vote, Dems.
won 4 elections and Reps. won 5

(3)A very closely competitive era

4th American Party System (1896 - 1928)The Depression of 1893 and the crusade to reintroduce silver as form of
money (to inject inflation in the economy) brings the 4th party
system into being.

South & West (Dems.)
versus Midwest & Northeast (Reps.)

The movement of most states west
of the Mississippi out of the Republican column and into the Democratic one
offered clear evidence that a new party system had taken hold. For the next
forty years the Democrats would rely on the West and South for electoral
support, while states in the Northeast and Midwest swung securely into the
Republican column.

Free Silver, tariff and
"full dinner pail."

In an effort to draw support from
the Populist party, Democratic presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan had
embraced the monetization of silver (free silver) as the way to lift hard times
lingering from the Depression. Republicans countered that a protective tariff
was what was needed. After they won the election, imposed a tariff and the
economy bounded back, Republicans took credit for the "full dinner
pail." In each election that followed, Reps. defended the protective
tariff and insisted that they were the party of prosperity while Dems. were
associated with the dubious policy of free silver,

noncompetitive

d.Get to 4th, and Rep dominance is more pronounced -- 12.5%
differential

(1)All 7 elections Reps won they took with resounding
pluralities

(2)2 Dem victories (Wilson) one due to splintering of Rep. vote
(1912) and other

(1916) won with fair narrow margin.

Decline in participation
and partisanship

The most important political
development of the 4th party system was the sharp decline in voter
participation (hitting nadir in 1924) and a loosening of partisan ties among
the electorate, evidenced in increased split ticket voting. The decline in
competition may have been a factor in leading to the decline in participation
and partisanship.

5th American Party System (1932 - 1964)Onset of Great Depression in 1920 brings Rep. dominance to a close

Dominant Urban &
Southern Dems.: middle and lower class

Dem. party’s emergence as dominant
party of the mid 20th C. owed to its mobilizing support of working
class Americans – especially northern blacks – to add to its Southern base.
Unions formed during the 1930s and 1940s – with the aid of New Deal legis –
played a major role here.

5th
Party system more competitive, Dem edge amounts to 6.7% points.

Minority: Rural,
Midwestern Reps.: middle and upper class

The Republican party, more than
ever, became the party of rural America – especially in the Midwest -- and the
well-to-do.

New Deal Issues

The federal programs enacted by
the New Deal remained the enduring issues of the 5th party system.
Although the G.O.P. eventually embraced these initiatives in principle, Democrats
would insist that the party was not to be trusted with protecting social
security, the minimum wage or with the proactive economic policies prescribed
by Keynesian economics.

Revival of participation
and partisanship

One of the important accomplishments
of the New Deal was to reverse the trend to lower voter turnout of the 4th
party system, and to reinvigorate partisanship by attracting support from the
urban masses.

6th American Party System (1968- 20??)

We can date the end of the New Deal system with either the election of 1964
(Goldwater vs. Johnson) or 1968 (Nixon vs. Humphrey). The important development
in each case was the shift of white southerners from Democratic to Republican
ranks as the Civil Rights issue became paramount.

Reps.: Southern &
Western, male, middle & upperclass

Dems.: Northeastern,
females, middle and lower class

The recurring division of the Party – evident in The New York Times
exit polls since 1976 – is the impressive division of the electorate along sex
lines starting in the 1980s: women go to the Dems. and men gravitate to the
Reps.. This is the first evidence of a gender gap in the electoral arena.
Family income is another key divider – as it had been in the previous party
system – with lower income voters going to the Democrats. Regional differences
are also evident as southern and western whites have gone Rep. while the
Northeastern states go in the other direction.

Civil Rights and
Government Retrenchment

The most salient issue that broke up the 5th party system was
the Democratic Party’s endorsement of civil rights legislation in the 1960s
while Reps. followed a "Southern Strategy" that played the race card
in various guises (crime, welfare, "Willie Horton"). During the 1980s
efforts to make major cutbacks in domestic government programs was another
enduring issue.

Legislative and
Presidential control mixed

Unlike past party eras, the 6th party system was marked by a
divided party government. Between 1968 and 1972, The party that controlled the
White House did not control both houses of congress for 26 years versus 6 years
where Democrats held on to all three.

Decline of participation
and partisanship

Voter turnout resumed its downward slide during the 6th party
system, and the proportion of citizens choosing to remain unaligned has
increased since the 1950s.

Last Party System?

The substantial portion of the
electorate that calls itself independent, and the willingness of Rep. and
especially Dem. voters to vote for candidates of the opposition party,
indicates that party ties are no longer as powerful. This, combined with the
divided control of the executive and legislative branches, makes it dubious
whether the party system model has any meaning in the current day.

1. American Party SystemsWe can summarize critical election theory as follows:

32-36 Year Time Spans --
Once a Generation

1.occur with remarkable consistency every 32 or 36 years:

a.Each
party systems lasts 8 or 9 presidential elections before it is replaced by
another

2.If
we are in 6th party system, might expect Rep. dominance to last until election
of 2000 or 2004, at which time will ring in 7th Party system

Begin and End with
Crisis & "Critical Elections"

The onset of a party system appears
when a major political crisis comes along after the political crisis associated
with the old party system is long past and no longer relevant.

Stable voter coalitions
and Issues

The aftermath of a critical
election produces an enduring set of issues and voter alignments that reappear
in election and election (as evidence by the Pearson Corrections.

Majority and Minority
Parties

One party usually enjoys an edge
in electoral support, and controls all the branches of the national government
most years. The same thing happens at the state level.

Third Parties as
Harbingers of Change

It is left to third parties to
campaign on issues that are ignored by the major parties (the Liberty Party and
slavery; the Populists and Free Silver; George Wallace’s attack on Civil
Rights). Eventually, in the midst of a crisis, one of the two major parties
picks up the issue and realignment follows.

II Implications for American ElectorateTheory underlying critical realignment theory tends to see voters acting
within certain historical context that very much determines the election
outcome as opposed to seeing elections as discrete events where voters are
reacting to personalities and issues at hand.

1.Latter is way mass media portrays elections, and way much of
political history was written until around 1860s.

a.Contests
between two parties (or just two candidates)

b.Outcome
is determined by strategies of these candidates (what issues do I press, where
do I campaign, how much money do I raise and where and how do I spend it: on my
advertising, my staff) and how these interact with developments during the
campaign (hostage crisis of 1980, good or bad economic trends or conditions).

c.When
election is over outcome is ascribed to canny tactics of victor and bloopers
and mistakes of loser.

(1)Historians have a number of these critical mistakes made by
one side in accounting for defeat

(a)James G. Blaine (1884) crippled by statement he did not
readily disavow the anti-Catholic sentiments expressed by some of his supporters.

(b)Charles Evans Hughes loss of Presidential election of 1916
associated with loss of state of Calif., and loss there attributed to failure
to meet with some of progressive Reps. in that state

(c)More recently been suggested that but for Iranian crisis Jimmy
Carter might well have been re-elected in 1980

d.Suggests that elections are determined by very short term
factors that apply to present election but not the next.

Stable partisan
identification

Critical election theory says these idiosyncratic events are usually of
little consequence in determining the outcome:

a.Bulk of voters decisions as to how will vote have been made
well before these events.

b.At
most, looking for a reason to justify taking the partisan stance they do.

c.Voter
loyalty, reinforced by party symbols and actions, are very hard to shake.

Role of Socialization
and Crisis

Critical election theory posits that voters acquire a partisan identity not
by responding to the day to day issues of the day, but are socialized to become
a Democrat or Republican, usually by following the lead of their parents. Only
a severe political crisis is enough to induce voters to re-examine their
inherited partisan label in light of changed conditions.

Elections
elicit partisan response

The role of political campaigns is less to convince people as it is to
stimulate their latent partisan leanings.

Salient hot
button issues

Political parties seek to mobilize
their supporters by bringing up issues to remind the voters why they are a Dem.
or Rep. – using "the Bloody shirt" or charging that the Republican
candidate is another "Hoover". Campaigns struggle to identify the
issues that matter to their supporters.

Disconnected

A further inference we can make about the American electorate, by virtue of the
way they generally follow the cues put forward by their party, is that they
often are not following the political scene very closely. Only a critical
election, coming along probably once or twice in a voter’s lifetime, shakes
them up sufficiently to get greatly excited about the contest and carefully
consider the alternatives.

III Implications for GovernanceCritical election theory also helps
explain how government works.

Cycles of Policy Making

The general
pattern to the enactment of public policy in the U.S. notes a cyclical pattern
that can be linked to critical election theory.

Long Periods
of deadlock

(3)In U.S. deadlock and inertia characterize our government at
most times.

1.Stability,
remember that Founders were very suspicious of government, inclined to believe
that when it acts it is most likely to do so in an oppressive manner.

a.Sought
to hamstring the National Government as much as possible -- making it difficult
to respond.

(1)Divided power between national and state
levels.

(2)Divided national power between 3
branches, each having ability to check one another.

(a)Have 2 (not one) legislatures -- and one of whose members are
elected only every 6 years on a piecemeal basis:

(b)So in any election 2/3rds of upper house is secure against
having to appeal to public.

(c)President and Supreme Court that each have power to nullify
acts of congress:

i)Presidents vetoes overridden with 2/3rds vote in both
houses

ii)Supreme Court can be overruled only by amending the
constitution: Need approval of 3/4ths of states.

b.If you have something want government to do, something
innovative that requires legislation, it is more difficult to get national
government to act, so many checks and balances in the system.

(1)Not like Great Britain, where might take
it to Parliament -- get it through that body and have accomplished your
purpose.

(2)Even if fail, when next parliamentary election rolls around,
seek to win majority of sympathetic members to that one body and have
accomplished your purpose.

Brief spurts
of policy activism

A critical election usually brings an abrupt end to the deadlock by
bringing a new coalition and a new majority into being to put a new set of
issues on the agenda and on to the statute books. This is most clearly the case
with the New Deal and the Civil War.

Critical elections in lieu of revolutions

A.U.
S, has seen very little in way of revolutions, coups, uprisings that mark other
nation's histories over last 2 centuries:

1.U.S.
functions with the oldest operating constitution in world.

a.Thought of substituting this for another plan of government
is sacrilegious

b.While designed as a flexible document, remarkable how few
amendments have been required over time.

2.Democratic
party, if trace back to Thomas Jefferson, is oldest existing political party in
world.

a.Republic party, coming long half century later is still
quite old compared to others in world.

3.For most of our nation's political
history political conflict has taken place within context of Democratic and
Republican parties.

a.Almost seems ordained by nature that there should be but 2
parties in American politics:

(1)From election to election either the
Dems. or Reps are expected to win