Smartphone usage surges while PCs show startling decline in new worldwide study

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One of the widely discussed trends of the past few years has been the decline in PC sales and the rise in tablet sales. Tablets, more than smartphones, are credited with harming the US market — few people view a smartphone, even a highly capable device, as a complete desktop or laptop replacement.

Because so much of the discussion has been tablet- and US-centric, we’ve missed the impact that tablet and smartphone sales have had on the worldwide electronics market. Now that information has been combined and visualized for the first time, and while the data points aren’t ironclad (we’re drawing from a single source for this information), some of the trends are stark.

Some of these data points are so strong that they seem inaccurate — according to the chart, India’s PC usage has fallen to just 10% before rebounding slightly this year. In fact, we suspect there are anomalies in the data — if the Indian information were accurate, it would mean that PC usage had declined sharply (from 40% to just a little over 10%) while mobile use only increased from perhaps 13% to 22% over the same period. Since it’s unlikely that total internet use has declined so steeply, this suggests flaws in the data set.

Nonetheless, Gartner Research does back up the idea that the Indian PC market is in sharp decline: In Q1 2014, sales in the Indian market had fallen to 70% of their Q1 2013 level, while smartphone sales for the same period had more than doubled. Sales data isn’t the same as internet usage information, but the trends do point in the same direction — sharply rising sales of smartphones as conventional PCs drop.

Upending conventional wisdom

Steve Jobs and the original iPad

Once upon a time, the conventional wisdom was that the developing world would industrialize and adopt PCs as it did so, either by buying into lower-end replacement PCs that had reached the end of their Western lifecycles or by purchasing new machines custom-built for their particular markets. Intel and AMD have both made various efforts to stoke this trend, and companies like Dell and HP expanded into emerging spaces. Now, that market trend is eroding on the back of smartphone sales, sometimes for reasons that have nothing to do with OS preferences or even convenience (at least, as Western buyers typically understand the world).

When the electrical grid is practically as constant as the sunrise, every home has wired connectivity of some sort, and landlines are something you opt out of rather than something you’d give your eyeteeth to acquire, we’ve got the luxury of predicating our product choices based on niceties of form factor and particular suitedness to a certain task. In nations where electrical power and data connections are both spotty, a device with substantial amounts of battery life that can recharge quickly and travels easily is vastly more useful — and that’s before you consider the dramatically increased performance and capability of smartphones to start with.

Why the sales trend matters

In the 1960s, the titans of the computing industry were companies like Burroughs, Control Data Corporation, GE, IBM, NCR, Honeywell, RCA, and Univac. Not all of these companies are gone today, but of the ones that still exist, only one of them continues to be a major player in the computing industry — and the IBM of 2014 is fundamentally different from the IBM of the 1960s, even if it remains a pioneering research firm.

These companies didn’t just own the hardware businesses that built computers, they fundamentally owned the idea of what a computer was. This is easiest to see by looking at the fiction of the period — the computers of Star Trek were essentially mainframes and this continued in Star Trek: The Next Generation and subsequent TV shows. For all its predictive capabilities, Star Trek never showed a handheld computing device that was as flexible or capable as the modern iPhone.

From “The Ultimate Computer.” Entire Star Trek episodes were built around the idea of mainframes gone wild.

Star Trek, of course, is scarcely representative of all science fiction of the 1960s, but many other authors made fundamentally similar assumptions — vast computing resources would be centralized, with planetary-scale AIs or Galactic Libraries.

In the same way, Microsoft and Intel were fundamental to the idea of what a computer was for several decades. Both companies have lost the chance to define the mobile era — Intel took a shot at doing so with Mobile Internet Devices, or MIDs, but failed — but neither can afford to be relegated to completely also-ran status in their own industries. Hence, both continue to create mobile products and to push into these spaces.

Whether this trend will continue is an open question. There’s already signs that tablet sales are cooling in the US and other developed countries. If developing nations follow the same trend, we’ll see smartphone sales begin to drop as well — or the continued commoditization of the product line could spur fresh growth as lower price points allow manufacturers to appeal to broader and broader market segments.

Tagged In

OK, I see an awful lot on that chart going up and to the right… That doesn’t suggest any ‘sharp decline’ in PC usage. Even slightly to the left wouldn’t be a sharp decline. I see India and Saudi as a sharp decline… And like 2 others with a twitch in the last few months… But that’s about it. ???

Joel Hruska

Look at the BRIC countries, which have been responsible for driving a great deal of growth in the markets until recent years.

Brazil — down by half.
Russia — limited data.
India: Down by nearly 75%.
China: Down by about 20%.

The problem, if you’re a PC manufacturer, is that you want to capture all that growth strictly to the right. “Upwards” implies dilution of brand and sales. Some markets, like India’s, are in such bad shape that people are pulling out altogether.

Highlander

what does highlander have to do with anything?

Grebus

“There can be only one.” PC vs. Smartphone

Cookies

But you can have them both…
It’d be like saying that microwaves replace ovens…

Grebus

The article is about one becoming more dominant than the other. Yes, you can use them both, but only one will be used the most.

Cookies

Smartphones get used the most because they can be used in more places.

It’s less of smartphones replacing PCs, and more of smartphones being used where PCs can’t.

Grebus

I agree. Portability and rapid smartphone development are definitely key drivers of the results above, but looking at simple usage and sale statistics still supports the point of the article. And while smartphones can’t replace PC’s as productivity machines, they can and have replaced them for many people for doing simple tasks such as web browsing, Facebook, checking emails, and basic gaming.

Bob Dobbs

What about tricorders?

darkich

Smartphone will eventually and inevitably get tricorder functionalities

What?

1. The chart is a mess to read

2. PC market was very small in India and mobile simply blew past it in a short period of time mainly because of affordability. The whole world is embracing mobile more but PC is more stable in wealthier nations like the US because we can afford it. While poorer countries are much more likely to skip the PC and go solo smartphone. Think about how many Indians can actually throw $500-1500 for a PC. The smartphone just make more sense unless they need a PC for work.

3. Highlander?

Grebus

“There can be only one.” PC vs Smartphone

codeJunkie

Is this another one of those statistical myths…
You know, like when sales go from 1 dollar a month to 2 dollars a month the headline is “100% growth!!!”
So the country with 5 smart phones goes to 10 smart phones for “100% GROWTH!!!”
The same country goes from 1 million PCs to 999,999 for “PC sales continue to decline!!!”
I seriously doubt anyone is getting much real work done (spreadsheets, managing shipping dept., payroll…) on their smart phone, except maybe sales calls…

darkich

China is world’s largest smartphone market, and India is booming like crazy.. and it has over a billion people, in case you didn’t knew.
If you take time and surf some YouTube smartphone reviews, you’ll find they are mostly Indian.. the urban part of that nation is obsessed with smartphones.

Bitterbear

Why smartphone use is on the rise? Because you pair it with Facebook and Whatsapp it’s an excellent too to get laid.

michael-9

PC Sales…
What is missing…
What they have not researched is the fact that more people are building their own PC’s.
five or more years ago, this was not the case. If one would observe what people are buying in their local microcenter,
for example, parts are the big purchase items. people, of all ages, have gotten over the technology fear of building their own.
In fact, I have built three computers and upgraded my neighbor’s recently. my last purchase was a dell desktop about six years ago,
since it was more cost effective to buy then build. I believe this is one of the major reasons why PC sales are down.

the new plot…

the pre-built PC companies want another platforms to refill their pockets, but this time it’s a short lifecycle CLOSED platforms (smartphones and tablets) to avoid repeating the old mistakes.
so you could not built or customize it, and they didn’t stop there, they want to force us to the awful always online fraud computing “ops!, I mean cloud computing” on these awfuly limited devices.
you are now forced to pay them every month/ year what you used to buy once for your PC’s in the past, and don’t forget the reliability and the security of the cloud, but that’s another story…
with a little help from the media and Microsoft (Windows 8) these companies hoped to accomplish their dream, but we all know how the story ends…and we all know who’s the REAL winner…
smartphones and tablets are extends to the desktop PC and NOT a replacement for so many people and hardcore gamers.

even the computer shops pc’s are considered “build your own” as sales charts only count companys like HP and lenovo

so even if you dont build your own pc and buy one from a computer shop they wont be counted as a pc sale

i dont know ANYONE who would buy a pc from HP and the other pc manufacturers – not a single person would because you can get much better and cheaper at your local computer shop (at least where i live this is the case)

the only people that buy computers from hp and other big manufacturers are companys

michael-9

good point!
thanks for your input, I missed to mention this in my post too.
thanks for completing it.

SuperTech

Hmmmmm . . . surf and play games on a 5″ cell phone or sit 2-3′ from a 40″ HDTV/Monitor? Gee, I wonder which one would be nicer, LOL.

PS . . . cell phones have THE worst sound quality for making phone calls and your calls are more likely than not to be dropped, voip is a close second, and texting is for the young and dumb.

darkich

Forced to sit on a chair, destroy your spine and blood wessels while staring on that screen or to lay in a cosy bed or couch in any position you like.. Yeah, you wonder but the answer is really obvious.

eonvee375

PC dindt change, smartphones to PC ratio does… PCMASTERRACE!

Cold as ice

A household has more than one smartphone but they usually have just 1 pc.
so its gonna have greater growth, My house i have 1 pc and 5 smartphones 3 tablets.

Dustymack

I would like to see how this correlates with education. They have been dumbing down technology for the last couple of years in hopes to drive down wages. Many transaction are now being routed through phones and tablets. How smart do you have to be to click a couple of buttons. This effectively leads to a less educated and skilled society in my opinion.

Uncle_Fred

Star Trek has plenty of examples of portable computers. Picard is often seen reading from a tablet and phablet-like device. There’s episodes where data is buried in report making on his tablet in 10-Forward, episodes where people are taking notes, and even a couple where we see tablets used for video watching.

darkich

Oh and what about Star Trek Voyager?

Every crew member carries around its own “Pad”, (looks like a 7″ tablet with lower half occupied with physical controls).
It really is the focal gadget of the series

darkich

“In nations where electrical power and data connections are both spotty, a device with substantial amounts of battery life that can recharge quickly and travels easily is vastly more useful — and that’s before you consider the dramatically increased performance and capability of smartphones to start with.”

That is one well made point, but the overall trend isn’t nearly that simple. The fact is smartphones are by far the most practical(on top of being by far the most versatile devices on the planet ) for quick information, entertainment and media consumption that had become the prevalent way of today’s society.

My Note 3 serves me well as my only computing device, and while I could afford a tablet, laptop or desktop, the purchase wouldn’t really be justified since they would all be mostly collecting dust.

What I would purchase in an instant though, is a standardized, easily expandable cheap touchscreen module to seamlessly connect my Note with.

Dr.Madhav

A smartphone have its limitations, in fact even gaming consoles, and so does PCs. But a smartphone can never better a PC. I get this evolution or cannibalization; however most smartphones are stupid in terms of hardware capabilities when compared to PCs. For sure, folks like me will continue to build PCs at least until 2020 or later. My latest custom built workstation-grade PC is based on i7-4970K and Asus Maximus VII Hero board.

dc

a lot of it has to do with the price of energy. We Americans don’t think about it much because energy is relatively cheap here. But in a lot of countries, it costs a lot more, and much of the world uses staggered energy costs. Which means that if you use over X amount, you pay 50 percent more….. This is seen as a back door tax on the well to do, since the poor don’t use much electricity. Imagine you have a city with 500,000 people with stuff, and 3-5 million people with almost nothing. The 500,000 end up having to foot most of the electricity bill for the city. The people at the bottom pay a very low rate enabling them to run a fan, maybe have a tv and to run lights at night. Running a PC can easily move you from a lower tier bracket to a higher one.

My question though would be whether or not laptops are counted as PCs.

also you have to think about cultures. It’s a bit of a stereotype, but Latins do love their smart phones. So they tend to surf the net on them constantly, even while using a PC….

Maventwo

Smartphones will not decline because smartphones will outcompete pc as instrument equipment especially with other sensor devices.
Volvo Truck mechanics use smartphones as instrument for analyse of electronics to engine.
American/swedish company Flir have developed IR-camera for working together with Iphone, this product is called Flir One.http://www.flir.com/Flirone/
MIT-spin-off Eyenetra have developed Ochular for detaching on a smartphones display.
Eyenetra call this product/concept for NetraG.http://www.eyenetra.com
General Electric have developed a very small Ultrasonic detector for analyse together with a smartphone for medical purposes.
Another detector tech will be THz-detector which will be in-built in smartphones!
Swizz company Sensirion have developed a mems-based gas analyser.
So, smartphones will exclude pc as analyse instrument computer for more and more purposes.

Mr Opinionated

Just last week, I saw several reports that PC sales were actually going UP a bit again, and here we go with yet another “The Sky is FALLING” story. PC’s are not going away. And while a fair number of people have moved to smartphones and tablets, PC’s still sell millions of machines a quarter as well. And they will for a good long time.

I guess, for a guy thats been playing with computers in one way or another since the mid 1970’s, and even ran my own computer company (custom software, custom built computers, networking, trainin, etc…) for 10 years the in 90’s, the fact that I still get get along on a $39 dumb phone, and have never owned a smart phone or a tablet says I am a bit different than the majority of people out there. But hey, I have this 29″ 21:9 ratio ISP panel monitor too. Maybe I just like bigger things when it comes to computers. I did own one of those Motorola bricks back when cell phones were in their infancy though. LOL

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