Florida politics, policy, and plain-spoken analysis by Gary Fineout.

Steve Crisafulli

January 11, 2016

After one of the most tumultuous years since Republicans assumed control of the Florida Legislature - the GOP-controlled House and Senate return this week for a 60-day jaunt that many legislative leaders hope/predict is relatively calm and uneventful heading into what could be a highly unpredictable election year.

Most insiders of course can recount the score: The budget meltdown, the abrupt ending of the 2015 regular session, two failed redistricting special sessions, a budget finally passed with days to go before a state government shutdown.

Legislators are returning early this year as part of an experiment to move up the date so that lawmakers can be back home in time to spend spring break with their families. (It would take a change in the constitution to move up session start for every year.)

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of session:

Can everybody just get along?

The expectation is that the resolution of the long-simmering Senate presidency battle (which was won by Sen. Joe Negron) and the Senate's tabling of Medicaid expansion should make it easier to reach a consensus on the state budget and other issues. Throw in the fact that it's an election year and there is an anticipation that there will be a willingness to compromise. But that may not capture the complicated situation at hand.

First all, there'sGov. Rick Scott who enters the session with a longer wish list than normal. And it's not just the $1 billion tax cut package and Enterprise Florida reforms that the governor wants (although that appears to be a big ask). Scott put together a $3 billion gambling deal with the Seminoles and he's also pursuing his health care transparency package.

Last year Scott showed that there is a price to pay (through his substantial budget vetoes) if you don't go his way. So you can be assured that remains on the minds of many legislators.

But let's not forget there are some Scott agency heads whose fates remained unresolved, or that there remains a split in fundraising/political activities that has resulted in the Senate and Scott raising money separately from the party. You can also throw in the whole unsettled situation in the Senate due to a redrawn state Senate map that could theoretically force some senators to moderate their positions.

Lastly, a key question is how supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Legislature will view Scott's decision to nudge ever so closely to endorsing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Say what you will about the sausage-making in the state Capitol a lot of it still depends on connections and relationships and many of the items cited could play a role. And if Scott is viewed as isolated from members of his party then there is even less willingness to work with him.

Is it possible to ever reach an agreement on gambling?

Well, you certainly wouldn't want to bet on it given the competing forces (including dog and horse tracks from outside of South Florida) who don't like some of the fine print on the deal that Scott reached with the Seminole Tribe. In the past few years attempts to pass major gambling bills have floundered amid the Scylla and Charybdis that exists in the Legislature on this issue.

But Scott remains a wild card on this. The governor, who began his business career as a deal maker, put together a proposed compact with tribal officials that was guaranteed to get big headlines and promised a big payout.

Throughout his time as governor Scott has remained, for lack of a better word, agnostic about gambling in the state. In other words, the governor isn't going to back the tribe, the dog tracks, the anti-gambling factions including Disney, Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, or even Trump at all cost.

It would not be surprising if Scott's approach is basically: 'Hey, I helped put together a deal. Tribe, it's up to you and your lobbyists to get it passed.' And more importantly, is Scott amenable to changes as long as the overarching achievement - the money in the state's bank account is unchanged? Signs point to yes.

Tribal officials - who are still locked in a court battle over whether they can keep blackjack tables in their casinos under the 2010 deal that expired last summer - may have to decide if they need to cobble together something that makes everyone happy. Or decide if they could take their chances and just wait until next year.

Scott has been very deferential so far in his public pronouncements and has made it clear that it's up to the Legislature to work something out. If it doesn't happen the governor can maintain it wasn't his fault.

How many gun bills will reach their target?

Apart from the budget and gambling battles, you can expect a fair amount of attention in the media to be focused on the gun bills already moving through the Legislature. These include bills allowing open carry of firearms, guns on college campuses and changes to the Stand Your Ground law.

The decision by legislative leaders to already allow these bills to move through legislative committees even before the start of the 60-day session is a sign that there is considerable support for them.

Plus long-time National Rifle Association lobbyist Marion Hammerhas made it abundantly clear that she and her supporters have no plans to modify their stances on these bills. Hammer has told everyone that she will be keep pushing the legislation for as long as it takes.

Put that together and it would reasonable to assume that most, if not all, of the bills stand a good chance of reaching Scott's desk later this year. Yes, there is opposition to the various bills, including Florida State University President John Thrasher and university police chiefs on campus carry to some of Florida's sheriff's on open carry.

But the gun bills give Republicans a chance to do something that will fire up their own political base heading into what could be a chaotic election season.

There is a caveat with all of this though and that's the unresolved question of whether the new Senate districts (which appear to tilt toward Democrats) will persuade some senators that contentious issues of this sort need to be put on hold until 2017.

How will the growing power of Joe Negron and Richard Corcoran affect the process?

The general theory about the Legislature is that the influence/power of the outgoing legislative leaders begins to ebb during their second session while the clout of their successors begins to grow.

There have been exceptions to that rule over the years i.e. Dean Cannon as House speaker and John McKay as Senate president.

There will be those who will make snide comments that Corcoran, a former top aide to Rubio and current House budget chief, already has considerable sway in the House. Yes there are many signs that he does wield a good deal of influence, but expect it to get even larger.

Among some insiders who follow the process the operating theory right now is that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and SenatePresident Andy Gardiner will get to watch their top priorities pass in the opening days of the session. (For Crisafulli, a potential Agriculture Commissioner candidate, that's a comprehensive water bill, while for Gardiner it's bills to aid families with children who have developmental disabilities.)

After that moment of comity, the rest of the session will be conducted in Corcoran and Negron's shadow. That could affect plenty of important bills, whether it's Negron's support of a measure to legalize/regulate fantasy sports to the judiciary reforms that Corcoran has already promised to push through.

Other considerations: Negron, an attorney, has clashed in the past with the insurance industry so that may make it hard for them to push through changes opposed by trial attorneys such as the revamp of assignment of benefits. Corcoran - along with his successor Rep. Jose Oliva - have expressed skepticism about for targeted business incentives like those championed by Scott or for items such as film incentives or subsidies to sports teams and operations.

Will this really be a do-nothing year for the Florida Legislature?

Talk to most lobbyists and they will quietly concur: This may be a really tough year to get anything substantial passed.

The reasons are many, starting with the epic battles of last year (see No. 1) to what appears to be an unpredictable election year (see Trump, Donald.)

There is a feeling right now that any attempt to move major changes/reforms in key areas will be difficult. It's not just the gambling deal with the tribe. This could flow to everything else including the types of tax cuts, health care changes pursued by the House to some of the environmental bills being pursued to alimony reform and major education bills. If Republican leaders are intent on putting aside any public disagreements then the easiest way may be to just deep-six many of the more contentious proposals.

As of this past weekend, 1,644 bills have been filed which does appear to put the Legislature on pace to meet last year's totals so maybe legislators themselves remain somewhat optimistic that they can things done. There is always a natural tendency for the Legislature to try to fix/improve/change things and have something to campaign about in the fall.

But the most substantial year for legislation in recent years was 2011 when you had a new governor and a supermajority in the Legislature following the 2010 wave year for the GOP. That track record suggests that 2016 will be relatively quiet.

April 27, 2015

Late last week, music started blaring over the sound system at the Florida House of Representatives:

"Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team. Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream."

Since the song was likely chosen by Kathy Mears, the chief of staff for House Speaker Steve Crisafulli you can be fairly confident that it was chosen for the rich irony the lyrics say about the current budget stalemate that has thrown the Florida Legislature into a bit of chaos (and which will likely result in a special session.)

Despite the promises of pleasantries, the divide between the two chambers is real.

And a copy of Crisafulli's script from his closed door meeting last week with House GOP legislators bears that out.

Crisafulli makes it clear that the House did not have a lot of warning that Medicaid expansion would be in this year's legislative mix. Senate President Andy Gardiner opened the door to expansion during a speech he gave on opening day.

"I worked with President Gardiner all summer to develop a work pan and talk about how we would handle session issues,'' states the script. "Expanding Medicaid was never part of the agenda. In fact, he stated that he knew where the House was, and did not plan to push the issue in the Senate. Obviously, things have changed and rather than getting caught up in the why, or the how, we are where are today."

The script also includes the House perception that a number of GOP senators oppose expansion. (Although one can argue, they have already voted for expansion since it's in the budget and was included in a budget bill that passed the Senate by a 35-1 vote.)

It's worth noting that House Democrats contend that there are plenty of GOP House members who would vote yes on expansion.

As recounted last week _ and as shown in the script _ Crisafulli urged his members to "stand like a rock." And when it comes to expansion, the House has done that.

The House made one last-ditch effort on Friday to salvage a budget deal before the May 1 deadline. They offered to put a total of $600 million of state money into health care to help keep hospitals whole in the event that the federal government does not extend the hospital funding known as low income pool beyond this summer's deadline.

For House leaders this was an attempt to call the Senate out: Is this about the loss of hospital dollars, or is this is about Medicaid expansion? In other words, you can expect House Republicans to start saying - we are willing to take care of any perceived crisis, but the Senate doesn't want to go along.

Past legislative battles - and sessions - have almost always featured the prospect of one chamber aligning themselves with the governor - to force the other chamber to bend.

Look no further than last year when then-House Speaker Will Weatherford was willing to halt all work on the budget unless then-Senate President Don Gaetz allowed a vote on the bill that would offer in-state tuition to the children of undocumented immigrants. By that point Gov. Rick Scott also wanted the legislation, which would help him with Hispanic outreach during his upcoming re-election.

The triangulation has occurred again this year.

But one big difference is that last year's battle was waged behind the scenes and wasn't widely known initially. This blow-up has been a lot more public.

Scott and the House are aligned now on expansion after Scott reversed his reversal on expansion. (Pick your rationale here - Scott never really liked expansion anyway, he's running for U.S. Senate etc. etc.)

In theory, that should have helped resolve the standoff, although former Gov. Jeb Bush told Scott when he first came into office that you have to be careful because you can wind up "enabling" the conflict.

As first reported by The Miami Herald, Scott targeted several senators in an effort to get them to resist the plans of Gardiner and Senate leadership. Some senators - such as Sen. Thad Altman - called the meeting cordial. Other senators such as Sen. Denise Grimsley turned down the invitation to talk to Scott.

But if the idea was to peel off reluctant senators it may have had the opposite effect and helped cement - for now - the Senate.

Where does this leave Florida and the Legislature?

Let's recall that Gardiner has been in the process a long time. He was there back in 2007 when House Speaker Marco Rubiowas forced by the Senate to retreat on an ambitious proposal to expand insurance coverage to children with developmental disabilities.

Rubio told his House members at the time:

"This is not a tax cut,'' he said. "This is about real children and real parents and real families who are struggling every day to make ends meet...I am saddened that we will not have legislation before us that will address your concerns."

In that same speech Rubio predicted that Gardiner would be elected to the Senate and he would "rise to leadership."

So Gardiner knows full well that it may require brinkmanship - the June 30 deadline and potential shutdown of state government - to get the House and governor to change their minds.

Given that dynamic, one can anticipate that the session will end on Friday - with no extension (and all non-budget related bills dying.)

The posturing will then give way to who will call the special session - Scott or legislative leaders.

A Scott called special session could result in the Senate returning and then quickly ending without any action.

The big question then is how long will the Senate hold out?

Will they go long enough to even contemplate passing just a status quo budget in late June to avoid a shutdown - but with the prospect of stretching this out to the last quarter of the year (in hopes to hear an answer from federal authorities - and allow the pressure to build as the threat of cuts to hospitals becomes more likely?)

Or is the strategy to at least hold off a final resolution until the U.S. Supreme Court deals with the challenge to the federally-run health exchange? That decision could be rendered in June. The Senate plan contemplates creating a state-run exchange that could help absorb the 1.6 million Floridians if the Supreme Court strikes down the federally-run exchange. Senators will be able to argue they have a plan to deal with this scenario.

Yes any of that could happen. And a bonus question is would any of these scenarios result in collateral damage - both in the Scott administration for pursuing a strategy that didn't render a solution, or in the legislative ranks?

October 15, 2014

Charlie Crist and Rick Scott will head into their second debate on Wednesday night, hoping to create some momentum in what appears to be an ever so tight race for governor.

What might get lost in the back-and-forth and barbs about fraud, Scott Rothstein, and HCA/Columbia is how each governor is prepared to deal with the political future and reality that will exist no matter which one of them wins.

And that reality is that the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature will have a lot to say on how the next four years go...for both candidates.

The fault lines will be obvious for Crist.

He has already said he's ready to issue an executive order to try to carry out Medicaid expansion if the Legislature remains recalcitrant to the idea as it has the last two years.

This is actually not a new tactic for Crist. He has done this before, on issues like voting, where he has dared the Legislature to sue him on issues he knows enjoy some level of popularity. In the past, state legislators were hesitant to do this (save then-House Speaker Marco Rubio's challenge to a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.)

But you can rest assured that on Medicaid expansion the legal challenge - at least from the House (where one of the chief expansion opponents is Speaker-in-waiting Richard Corcoran) - will come quickly.

Crist has already said several times that he thinks he can work with the Legislature because he will "have a pen." That threat, however, would be rendered useless if Republicans gain a veto-proof majority as some polls are suggesting. You can bet a Legislature chagrined by the prospect of a Crist governorship will not hesitate to challenge Crist at every opportunity.

A Crist governorship could be a bonanza for political and policy reporters who would get to witness an endless game of brinkmanship as it happened at times under Florida's last Democratic governor Lawton Chiles. Just think of the joys of a possible mid-summer session to craft a final budget deal in order to keep state government running. (And a wonderful side debate of who constitutes a "essential" or "non-essential" state employee.)

Except Crist might not be the only one who could be at odds with legislative leaders.

The plain fact is that when talked to privately many GOP legislators continue to have discomfort with Scott four years after he knocked off GOP establishment favorite BIll McCollum and contended on primary night that the Tallahassee insiders would be "crying in their cocktails." Scott has an uneasy alliance with many Republican heavy-weights in the state who have remained quiet as he brought in outsiders - many of them connected to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal - to run the Republican Party of Florida.

Let's look at the facts of his four years in office. It really wasn't until this year - when he was down in the polls against Crist - that the Legislature pivoted from three years of a respectful, yet standoffish at times relationship, to giving way to help carry out Scott's top priorities.

Many of Scott's top priorities from his 2010 election - such as a massive cut in the state's corporate income tax - were politely rejected by the Legislature.

Want a more recent example? Just look at the decision by Scott to have Lopez-Cantera and Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth gauge support for a potential new deal with the Seminoles. As reported recently by The Associated Press, the goal of this deal was come up with one that outshined the one that Crist approved and get more money for the state. But the deal was a tough sell especially since it would require yes votes from Democrats in order to pass and was opposed by the state's pari-mutuels and those supporting Las Vegas-styled casinos. The entire effort quickly collapsed.

That's not to say there won't be a lot more common ground between Scott and members of his own party than between them and Crist.

But many of the Tallahassee insiders who Scott predicted would be crying now fully expect the Legislature to be the place where the real action - and real power - will lie during the next four years. That's more likely since Scott's power over legislators will wane as his second term goes on. Even as powerful as he was then-Gov. Jeb Bush got into a lot more rows with the Legislature after his re-election.

And how much currency with Scott bring with him if he barely defeats Crist in the same fashion where he barely defeated Alex Sink in 2010?

Scott's platform this time around has been a lot less bolder than it was in 2010. He has mostly crafted it around ideas like increasing spending on environment and education. Scott has promised to continue to grow the economy, but there's no 7-7-7 plan this time around with a sweeping promise to create 700,000 (or 1.7 million jobs) by cutting billions in taxes and spending.

What ultimately might be more important are the platforms of Corcoran, soon to be House Speaker Rep. Steve Crisafulli, Incoming Senate President Andy Gardiner, Sen. Bill Galvano (and the yet to be crowned Senate president for the 2017-18 time period.) Or it could even be the platforms of the NEXT potential Republican governor - Adam Putnam or Jeff Atwater.

April 16, 2014

The work is not yet finished on this year's state budget, but details about the origins of spending items in the budget are starting to come out.

In two previous postings here and here there were attempts to look just a little at the behind-the-scenes effort that occurs in pushing items in the state budget.

The Associated Press and the Orlando Sentinel both reported on Tuesday some of the details contained in nearly 600 pages of documents obtained in public record requests from the Florida House. Both stories noted that in a year with a substantial budget surplus legislators are putting in a lot of requests for hometown projects.

The AP story pointed out how the records contained emails, letters and sometimes just a message scrawled on paper and that legislators handed over budget information to committee chairman that came from groups or lobbyists pushing the funding request.

The requests covered all areas with legislators asking for funding from everything from health care services, juvenile justice programs to money for hometown economic development projects.

Many requests did not yield funding, especially if it came from Democrats, while Republicans appeared to have a greater level of success.

Among those were Rep. Steve Crisafulli, R-Merritt Island and incoming House speaker.

Crisafulli put in a request to aid the city of Palm Bay for a training facility called "The Range."

The initial ask was for $2.15 million and this was included money for a 'burn building," as well as moving targets, turning targets, a shoot house and a tactical tower. The information shared with a House budget chairman touted the fact that the request was supported by local law-enforcement and the National Rifle Association.

In a hand-written message Crisafulli notes that the $1 million eventually included in the House version of the state's roughly $75 billion budget "will get them started."

Crisafulli and Rep. Tom Goodson both put in a request for "The Field of Dreams," a nearly five acre sporting complex that would be used by children with special needs. It will feature fully rubberized playing surfaces for baseball, soccer and basketball. Facilities will be specially designed to accommodate wheelchairs and other mobility equipment according to a description of the project given to a House budget committee. The House budget currently has $2 million in it for this project.

Rep. Marlene O'Toole, R-Lady Lake, was successful in getting $200,000 for the Florida Healthy Choices Coalition which wants to teach Florida students about abstinence and "sexual risk avoidance."

The list goes on and on:

Rep. Matt Hudson, R-Naples, requested $43,600 in the budget to rehabilitate the Captain Hendry House, a historic building utilized for social events in the city of LaBelle. The project was funded.

Rep. Carlos Trujillo, R-Miami, asked for funding for La Feria de las Americas. There is $250,000 in the House budget for Hispanic fair and expo scheduled to be held at Sun Life Stadium.

Rep. Frank Artiles, R-Miami, called money for the Military Museum of South Florida a "top priority for both the Miami Dade Delegation and myself." There is more than $1 million in the House budget for it.

Goodson, R-Titusville, asked for consideration of $50,000 for electronic information signs documenting the Civil Rights movement for the Harry T. & Harriette V. Moore Foundation. The two were killed when a bomb underneath their bedroom exploded on Christmas Eve in 1951. The request was granted.

Rep. Jimmy Patronis, R-Panama City, asked for financial help in relocating a lighthouse at Cape San Blas. The budget includes $200,000 for the project.

Rep. Dwayne Taylor, D-Daytona Beach, asked for $750,000 for an economic development program housed at Bethune-Cookman University. The House included the full amount for the BCC "Entrepreneurship Institute" in two separate line-items.

Rep. Darryl Rouson, D-St. Petersburg, asked for $4 million for Agenda 2020 in St. Petersburg. The House budget includes $975,000.