The aim of this course is to look into the future and
consider some problems that the globe is likely to confront. It has a somewhat
unconventional structure since about half of our class time will be spent
in the computer lab using a computer model called International Futures
(IFs), while the other half of our class time will have the more common
lecture-discussion format. The readings, lectures, discussions, and lab
sessions are intended to give you a deeper understanding of such problems
as overpopulation, global poverty, food shortages, energy bottlenecks,
etc. and sharpen your analytical capabilities regarding potential solutions
to these problems.

The readings for the course are drawn from the texts listed
below. Please note that the Hughes text (which is a prepublication copy
of his third edition) is only available at the Student Book Store (330
E. College Ave.) as a course packet.

In order for us to use our class time effectively it is important
that you complete the assigned reading before the appropriate scheduled
class.

The lab sessions will be held in the Political Science
Computer Lab in the Burrowes building. For the first several weeks of the
semester you will work in teams of two to familiarize yourself with the
IFs model. After that point you will work individually. Each student will
be assigned a computer account and 20 MB of disk space to store simulation
results. Do not save any files that you wish to keep on disk C because
they are likely to disappear during the time between sessions. As you work
your way through the IFs model it is highly recommended that you keep a
lab notebook containing model commands, important variable names and definitions,
useful parameter names and definitions, comments about scenarios you create,
problems you encounter with the model, etc. This notebook will save you
much time in the end since you will not have to rely on the manual so much.
If necessary, extra time in the computer lab will be arranged.

Your course grade will be based on the following elements.

Mid term examination

25%

Lab exercises

20%

Discussion & Presentation

20%

Final paper

35%

Please note that the mid term exam will be on March 2nd
and the final paper is due April 29th (a penalty will be assessed for a
late paper). Details about the final paper will be provided later. In the
last week of class each student is expected to present a brief (5-7 minutes)
presentation on the subject of his or her final paper.

The World Wide Web is a valuable resource on global problems.
One web site that you should check out soon is maintained by Barry Hughes,
the developer of the IFs simulation. His web site is

http://www.ifs.du.edu/IF_Links.html

Other relevant web sites are listed on pages 6-7 of Global
Issues.

Since this is the first time this course has been offered,
unforeseen problems are likely to arise. Please be patient and bear in
mind that the life of a pioneer is often hard.

Class Schedule

January 12 & 14 - Thinking
About the Future

Hughes, chapter 1; Hammond, chapter
1; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 1

January 19 & 21 - Global Trends

Hughes, chapter 2; Hammond, chapters
6-9; Jackson, article 1

January 26 - Future Scenarios

Hughes, chapters 3-4; Hammond,
chapters 3-5; Jackson, articles 2-3.

January 28 - Lab Session 1

Carry out the exercises contained in chapters 3 and
4 of the IFs manual. Note that exercises are usually denoted by a solid
right arrow (q ) in the manual. Pay particular
attention to the model's Help system and familiarize yourself with it.February 2 - Population Problems

Hughes, chapter 5; Snarr &
Snarr, chapter 9; Jackson, articles 4-8.

February 4 - Lab Session 2

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 5 of the
IFs manual. When finished construct a scenario for India in which you gradually
increase the contraception use multiplier from 1 to 2 over a 30-year period
starting in 1995. Run the model to 2030 and compare the results of the
scenario run to the base run. At the end of the session turn in to me the
following.

1) A line graph showing contraception use in the two runs
for India.

2) A table showing total population in the two runs for
India.

3) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the GDP per
capita in dollars in the two runs for India.

Sign your names on the back of each table or graph and
write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you
made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the
table and graphs you create.

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 6 of the
IFs manual. When finished construct a scenario in which you gradually increase
the level of protectionism by the United States so that it is twice as
high in 2020 as it is in 1995. Run the model to 2030 and compare the results
of the scenario run to the base run. At the end of the session turn in
to me the following.

1) A line graph showing GDP in the two runs for the United
States.

2) A table showing world GDP in the two runs.

3) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the absolute
North-South gap in the two runs.

4) A line graph showing the physical quality of life for
Africa in the two runs.

Sign your names on the back of each table or graph and
write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you
made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the
table and graphs you create.

February 16 - Food Problems

Hughes, chapter 7; Jackson, articles
15-18.

February 18 - Lab Session 4

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 7 of the
IFs manual. When finished examine the number of malnourished children in
Africa in the base run to the year 2100. Focusing on the agricultural investment
multiplier try to construct a scenario in which the number of malnourished
children in 2100 is half the number in the base run. Do the same using
the agricultural yield multiplier. At the end of the session turn in to
me the following.

1) A line graph comparing agricultural production in Africa
in the base run, your best agricultural investment scenario, and your best
agricultural yield scenario.

2) A line graph comparing the number of malnourished children
in Africa in the three runs.

3) A table showing calories per capita (at 10-year intervals)
in the three runs.

4) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) African GDP
per capita in the three runs.

Again, sign your names on the back of each table or graph
and write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change
you made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to
the table and graphs you create.

February 23 - Energy Problems

Hughes, chapter 8; Jackson, articles
19-21.

February 25 - Lab Session 5

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 8 of the
IFs manual. When finished consider the following scenario. Suppose a major
war breaks out in the Middle East in 2005, and as a consequence of this
war a substantial amount of damage is done to the region's oil fields.
To implement this scenario set OPEC's energy export limit so that its energy
exports drop to 2 BBL in 2005 and gradually increase thereafter to 15 BBL
in 2013. Run the model to 2050 and compare the scenario results to the
base run. At the end of the session turn the following in to me.

1) A table showing the energy export limit for OPEC in
the two runs.

2) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the energy
exports of OPEC in the two runs.

3) Some line graphs showing the impact of this event on
the standard of living in the United States, Japan, Europe, China, Russia,
and Africa.

As before, sign your names on the back of each table or
graph and write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter
change you made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles
to the table and graphs you create.

March 2 - Mid Term Examination

March 4 - Lab Session 6

Free session in which you can experiment with possible
foci of your course paper.

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 9 of the
IFs manual. When finished consider the following scenario. Suppose the
United States were to adopt a carbon tax beginning in the year 2000 which
gradually rose to a value of 200 by 2020, and remains at that level for
the rest of the simulation run. Construct a scenario that implements this
change, run the model to the year 2050, and compare your results to the
base run. At the end of the session turn in the following to me.

1) A table showing the carbon tax for the United States
in the two runs.

2) A line graph showing energy demand for oil in the United
States in the two runs.

3) A line graph showing the standard of living in the
United States in the two runs.

As usual, sign your names on the back of each table or
graph and write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter
change you made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles
to the table and graphs you create.

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 10 of the
IFs manual. In the base run the gender empowerment measure (GEM) for Africa
is about 0.27 and rises slowly to about 0.60 in 2100. Construct two
different scenarios aimed at significantly increasing this measure
by 2100. To do this you will need to reflect on the structure of the model
and take into consideration the various factors you have examined in earlier
sessions. At the end of the session turn in the following to me.

For each scenario

1) A table showing the values of the parameter you varied.
On the back of this table give a brief explanation of why you expected
this factor to have a positive impact on GEM.

2) A line graph comparing GEM for Africa in the base and
scenario run. On the back of this graph write a short paragraph describing
the effect made by the parameter change you introduced.

Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 11 of the
IFs manual. Some believe that in the next century a "power transition"
will occur involving the United States and China. Examine the power of
the two states and the levels of threat perceived by the two states from
one another in the base run. It has been argued that a liberalization in
China would reduce the level of tension between the two states. Constuct
a scenario which accelerates the democratization of China beyond that which
is projected in the base run and see what effect this has on the levels
of threat and military power of the two states. At the end of the session
turn in to me a brief report on your results, documented with appropriate
tables and/or graphs.

April 6 - Regional Problems I

Hammond, chapters 11-14; Jackson,
articles 28-31

April 8 - Lab Session 10

Unstructured session in which you can work on your individual
scenario studies.

April 13 - Regional Problems II

Hammond, chapter 10, 15-16; Jackson,
articles 26-27, 32.

April 15 - Lab Session 11

Unstructured session in which you can work on your individual
scenario studies.

Unstructured session in which you can work on your individual
scenario studies.April 27 & 29 - Student Presentations

The Pennsylvania State University encourages qualified
persons with disabilities to participate in its programs and activities.
If you anticipate needing any type of accommodation in this course or have
questions about physical access, please tell the instructor as soon as
possible.