Crackerjack Financehttp://crackerjackfinance.com
Crackerjack Finance - Investing A Step AheadTue, 29 Nov 2016 13:49:54 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6.1http://crackerjackfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/cj_logo2-230x230.jpgCrackerjack Financehttp://crackerjackfinance.com
3232Turkey Day Highshttp://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/11/turkey-day-highs/
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/11/turkey-day-highs/#respondTue, 29 Nov 2016 13:49:54 +0000http://crackerjackfinance.com/?p=3963The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the tape continues to shock, with the Trump rally, after the fact, looking strikingly similar to the BREXIT rally; the market provides every indication that one outcome is good, the other outcome bad, it gets the bad outcome, and not only fails to sell off, but rallies on it! Enough to generate plenty of Aflac goose head shakes. Why did the market change its mind on Trump? Firstly, a Trump victory was never really “bad” it was just unfathomable, and Trump’s campaign rhetoric was at times, preposterously market unfriendly (forcing production in the US, undoing global trade). Upon further consideration, the market is now ignoring the majority of the rhetoric, while feasting at the prospect of Trump’s business friendly initiatives, which mainly revolve around increased stimulus to the US economy, and lower taxes, in almost all forms, relative to what the country would have faced with Hillary. The largest item, US corporate taxes being cut in half, or even more, down to 15%, is particularly bullish for US small caps (Russell 2000) […]]]>http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/11/turkey-day-highs/feed/0Trump; & The Arrogance of The Eliteshttp://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/11/trump-the-arrogance-of-the-elites/
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/11/trump-the-arrogance-of-the-elites/#commentsWed, 09 Nov 2016 10:22:59 +0000http://crackerjackfinance.com/?p=3953In shocking, inexplicable, unfathomable, polarizing, surreal fashion, Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, by winning the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with all of the states expected to lean his way. Stocks, currencies, and commodity markets are in disarray. The S&P 500 futures sank approximately 100 points (~5%) around midnight, with a very strong snap-back ever since it became clear Trump would win (by midnight), and subsequently did win (at 2:30am). As of 5:00am the market is only down 1.5%. Initial thoughts: FED policy uncertainty is the largest actual negative. Yellen, Brainard, and crew, are likely “fired” in 2017. The market will need to come to terms with a new, and potentially much more hawkish, Fed Chair. The Yellen Fed may move to the sidelines now, on uncertainty, in December (Dec 13th), and in January (Jan 31-Feb 1st) which may be the final couple meetings of this Fed. Any move to soften the stance of ousting Yellen would be welcome by markets and act as a huge stabilizing factor. The change in Fed policy alone is potentially enough to take 2-3 multiple points (250-375 points or 12-18%) out of the S&P. Trends towards globalism, in […]]]>http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/11/trump-the-arrogance-of-the-elites/feed/2Complacent Market; Fraught with Riskhttp://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/complacent-market-fraught-with-risk/
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/complacent-market-fraught-with-risk/#commentsFri, 28 Oct 2016 11:52:06 +0000http://crackerjackfinance.com/?p=3919In a shockingly flat stretch, noteworthy for the lack of volatility, and an incredibly tight range, the market has gone absolutely NOWHERE from July to October. 20-30 basis point moves feel outsized, even though they are not, in any sort of historical context. On days when the market goes up, the VIX falls to a 12-handle. Almost each and every session, the tape is “heavy” for some sort of “reason”, at some point in the morning, only to “rip” violently, for no apparent reason, undoing any meaningful move down. It’s been torturous for traders, the market is very expensive, the economy is late-cycle, yet the market can’t go down meaningfully for any reason. CJF believes that in a period of light volumes, algorithmic trading is increasingly dominating market action, and the current algorithm en vogue is to violently buy, irrespective of news, whenever the market is down 8-10 handles, and then sell when green. The strategy has almost always worked over 4-months, so naturally it’s reinforced. If the tape is somehow, down 20 handles, that’s when you triple up, and also, sell when green. It’s a bizarre strategy, and a bizarre tape. Value investors don’t get a pull back to normal […]]]>http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/complacent-market-fraught-with-risk/feed/1Pounded; BREXIT Risks Hit Marketshttp://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/pounded-brexit-risks-hit-markets/
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/pounded-brexit-risks-hit-markets/#commentsWed, 12 Oct 2016 11:34:03 +0000http://crackerjackfinance.com/?p=3895In a low volatility, range bound market, it doesn’t take much to cause a break. Rising global bonds yields are a major concern that double-impact the market; higher future business costs of funding growth, financing acquisitions, and implementing share repurchases, while, in tandem, high equity valuations are pressured. Now the market has another major worry. Over the past week, the British Pound sank dramatically, to a value (1.215) vs. the US dollar not seen since 1985. The weakness in the Pound (GBP) highlights the risks of a hard exit from the EU. Selling accelerated after Theresa May stated that the U.K. would give priority to the issue of controlling immigration rather than preserving the nation’s access to a single EU market. Francois Hollande stated that “there must be a price for BREIXT”. The flash crash of the Pound last week, in an early Asian session, blamed by algorithmic trading and stop losses, only added to fears. It’s clear that tremendous legal, regulatory, socio-political, and economic uncertainty regarding BREXIT exists. The risks of a negative impact to financial markets are greater now than they were in the immediate aftermath of the shocking BREXIT outcome. BREXIT is currently a net negative to […]]]>http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/pounded-brexit-risks-hit-markets/feed/1No Man’s Landhttp://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/no-mans-land/
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/no-mans-land/#respondWed, 05 Oct 2016 10:49:25 +0000http://crackerjackfinance.com/?p=3880an anomalous, ambiguous, or indefinite area especially of operation, application, or jurisdiction definition two: financial market direction over the 2015-2016 period The meandering, low-volatility, sine wave oscillations of the tape continue. How did markets arrive at a point where a 3% pull-back is petrifying, and a 5% pull-back feels like a crash? The Brexit pull-back in June, was just about 5% on the nose, but it lasted only 2-days. Policy maker support of markets , vis-a-vis central bank actions, and ultra-low interest rates, stumble upon the end of the rainbow. Now what? The pressure on the Fed to assert its independence from politics, specifically the democratic party, is rising. Last week, Janet Yellen short circuited (in this clip) when confronted by Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey. Donald Trump, is calling for heads at the Fed, and focusing attention on political bias. The Fed dissenters are getting vocal again, and will continue to pressure for another hike. A November rate hike still appears unlikely with liberals Yellen/Brainard calling the ultimate shots. So we don’t really go down, but at a full market valuation, it feels downright dangerous to play for that “just little bit more”. So therein lies the rub. […]]]>http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/10/no-mans-land/feed/0Yellen Fed & Monetary Policy: “Running it Hot”http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/09/yellen-fed-monetary-policy-running-it-hot/
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/09/yellen-fed-monetary-policy-running-it-hot/#respondSat, 24 Sep 2016 17:36:50 +0000http://crackerjackfinance.com/?p=3854The September Fed meeting issued few surprises; fed funds were not hiked, as was telegraphed by the Brainard speech. While the Fed maintained interest rates, in the press conference, Yellen once again, found a way to interject incremental dovishness, driving interest rates lower, and asset prices up. The playbook of the Yellen Fed for the past 3-years continues. The new focus of the Fed revolves around finally acknowledging that the Philips Curve is a rubbish inflation model, and that more slack exists in the labor market, and the economy, than previously believed, hindering an acceleration in inflation pressures. Cynics will observe that this new found slack wasn’t focused on by hawkish Fed Governors, up until September 10th, when talk of two hikes this year were still be floated. The hawkish Fed commentary sent markets on a dive, and that weekend, Hillary got sick. With jitters, and the VIX, rising, Lael Brainard saved the day on the following Monday with this speech. Hike off the table, period. The political objectiveness of certain members of the Fed is becoming a larger issue. Janet Yellen is a democrat, and Lael Brainard was the Undersecretary of the Treasury for International affairs for the Obama […]]]>http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/09/yellen-fed-monetary-policy-running-it-hot/feed/0