000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKNCIMOVG ACROSS THE FAATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFCTROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHCPOP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDEUPPER LEVELTROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHCPOP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

WEAK SFCHIPRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD