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On Monday, the big rumor of the day had the Cubs and Padres talking about a Matt Garza trade that would net the Cubs three prospects, one of which was Reymond Fuentes. That merely kicked off a serious uptick in Garza-related chatter this week, and came against the backdrop of Jed Hoyer conceding that the Cubs have had some level of trade talks with literally every single club in baseball over the past week. Maybe one of those conversations was with the Padres about Garza, as Gammons said he heard.

Further backing up that Garza/Padres rumor, both Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman have heard that the Padres are interested in Garza. That’s not the only team interested, though, obviously. Rosenthal adds the Dodgers, and Heyman adds the Giants.

Jayson Stark reports that extension talks between the Cubs and Garza, if and when they ever existed, haven’t been productive, as Garza wants a “bigger, lengthier” deal than the Cubs are comfortable with, according to Stark. I think you’d find very little disagreement that keep Garza on a three-year, $35 to $40 million deal would be the best possible move. But if Garza wants to take his chances to get more – could you blame him? – the Cubs are going to have to try and maximize his value before the Trade Deadline. The possibility of a compensatory pick isn’t really all that attractive, despite what the recent Draft-induced high might have done to your sense of relative value.

Speaking of Garza and an extension, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer ain’t talkin’. “[Garza is] a big part of this team right now, and throwing the ball well,” Hoyer told the media, including Carrie Muskat. “I’m happy for Matt that he feels as good as he does about how he’s pitching, and how he’s feeling. We’re not going to discuss whether we’re talking about an extension or trade.”

Bruce Levine says he thinks Garza will be the first Cub traded before the Deadline, adding that it could come as soon as the next seven to ten days. Levine doesn’t see the Cubs wanting to risk an injury or ineffective spate torpedoing Garza’s value.

Stark also adds that one NL exec predicted Garza would be the first pitcher traded. As we discussed earlier, it sounds like the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco could have something to say about that.

Garza’s case sure is an interesting one for the Cubs. On the one hand, they might feel once-bitten-twice-shy about holding onto Garza until the Deadline to try and get the best possible deal. On the other hand, with two injuries very near in the rearview mirror, Garza probably has a ton of value to reclaim if he keeps pitching well and stays heathy over the next month. One thing is fairly certain: if the Cubs are set on trading Garza, rather than extending him, they’ll want to space out trades involving Garza and Scott Feldman. You don’t want to be competing with your own merchandise late in July.

“You don’t want to be competing with your own merchandise late in July”…you left off the “for a second year in a row.” part

Stevie B

Bundy is having TJ surgery.

Holy crap…I hate that for the Orioles.

EvenBetterNewsV2.0

I would still trade almost any piece we have in the system to obtain him. TJ isn’t what it was, and if they would blink, now would be the time. I would love to have that kid in our system.

willis

It may not be what it was, but the Cubs are still the Cubs. The TJ track record isn’t so pretty with this organization. No thanks to another one.

Rebuilding

Bundy is awfully short for a power SP. He’s listed at 6’1 but is probably closer to 5’11”. The amount of torque he has to generate to throw that hard at his height is huge. An arm injury this early is bad news

mjhurdle

agree 100%.

there is a difference between a proven pitcher that has been healthy having TJ and a young rookie having it that early in his career.

THEOlogical

Exactly right! From someone I heard who had it (I believe John Smoltz?), “having TJS at a young age is worse than when your older. You’re still figuring out your mechanics and pitch release when your young. An older player knows how to be successful before having the TJS”. He said you never want to have it while in high school, college or when you’ve just began your pro career.

http://www.survivingthalia.com Mike Taylor (no relation)

“despite what the recent Draft-induced high might have done to your sense of relative value”

Cannot be overstated.

Steve124

Brett you discussed a possible Carl Crawford trade. Would if be likely what so ever that the dodgers would want to put Crawford as a piece of a Garza trade?

Rebuilding

I think it’s likely the Dodgers would love to put Crawford in ANY deal.

Steve124

Do you think Zach Lee or Joc Peterson and Crawford (us paying 10 million/year) is a fair trade for Garza and Navarro? I just wonder how much they are going to expect out of Crawford. It we could get that deal I say Hell Ya

Rebuilding

I just don’t see us being interested in Crawford at all. He can’t get out of bed without getting injured nowadays and he’s signed through 2017

Dynastyin2017

I just don’t see Theo getting bit by Crawford twice.

Kyle

The Blackhawks’ buzz should appease me through Saturday or so. Then the Cubs need to start making moves to entertain me.

Bric

Dude, that’s classic. You sound like an emperor of Rome: “You, serf… entertain me!” (claps hands and pops a grape into mouth as he relaxes on a lounge chair)

Spriggs

Bring me the head of a pig!

YourResidentJag

Ha!

Rebuilding

I think the Jackson signing shut the door on a Garza extension. I just don’t think you can lock in those two, at their ages and ability, for $30 million in a payroll for each of the next 3-4 years. Add in the Shark extension and that would be $50 million locked in. I know they claimed they were going after Jackson regardless of Sanchez, but I don’t buy it

willis

Ugh, if true that makes me sick.

I’m on the extend Garza train, always have been. It just seems that’s a huge long shot at this point. Hope the return is worth letting go of a solid 2/3 starter. Especially in light of the fact that Jackson seems like a huge mistake.

Eternal Pessimist

I don’t know about that. If the new economics with bigger TV contracts around the league continue to kick in, those contracts may look very reasonable.

willis

Well that, and you as a front office are coming to the realization that EJax is a 5th starter at this point, why would you let someone like Garza walk? You need him in this rotation. But we’ll see what they get back I suppose.

Spriggs

To latch on to your eternal pessimism… those big TV contracts will become a thing of the past – about the time it’s the Cubs turn to cash in on theirs.

Rebuilding

Not to restart the payroll argument. But given the finances of this team I think giving a #2, a #3 and a 4/5 (whatever slots the pitch for us) $50 million guaranteed for the next 3-4 years is awfully risky.

Eternal Pessimist

Garza’s just been too fragile to offer more than a 3 year 35-40 million dollar contract. If we could get that done we could probably get into a successful run around 2015-16 and find out if he is healthy enough to re-up. if we go 5 years and his continues to break down it could really sink us when we are otherwise ready to compete.

Rebuilding

I totally agree. That’s why I said its too risky. But I bet someone will do it

Cheryl

Anybody want to make a prediction on when he’ll be traded. I’ll guess July 3.

Spriggs

I predict he gets hurt again and they never trade him.

Cheryl

Boy I hope you’re wrong on that. I would love it if he continued here but not that way. I just figured they might trade him before the 4th because they seem to be at an impasse.

Jay

Does anyone think there’s a team out there that will Garza a deal longer than three years?

Rebuilding

If he is healthy the rest of the year I think it’s likely

willis

I doubt it. I think his market will be 2/$30-$32 or 3/$45-$48.

Rebuilding

If Sanchez got 5/75 last year I think it’s impossible he only gets 2 and unlikely he gets 3. I would think someone will try to get him for 4/60 and he likely gets 5/75. Assuming no arm troubles the rest of the year

Rebuilding

Sorry I meant Sanchez got 5/85

Rich H

I am seeing about 3/4 at 15m per with a couple of 17-20m vesting options that become standard with health.

Stu

Can’t take a chance on another injury before the deadline. A pitcher who has had his injury history is probably on borrowed time. Pull the trigger ASAP and call it a day with the Garza drama.

Time to move on.

Rebuilding

It’s looking increasingly likely that the 2014 rotation will be something like:

I almost guarantee the front office picks up two more pitchers, whether by trade or free agency that will compete. They like Villanueva as a backup, not a full time starter.

http://www.survivingthalia.com Mike Taylor (no relation)

Arodys Vizcaino will probably be pitching in the Fall to build up arm strength. He’ll get a rotation spot, unless he’s not ready. I’d love to sign Feldman (and his bat) after we trade him this year!

Samardzija
Wood (L)
Vizcaino
Jackson
Rusin (L)

Rebuilding

I would venture to guess Vizcaino has almost no chance to be in the rotation to start the year next year. He’ll get some time in the minors first. I any case there’s no way you can count on it

willis

Yeah people need to get off the Vizcaino is a rotation pitcher thing. Dude hasn’t thrown in God knows when and may not throw at all this season. All of the sudden he’ll be a cog in a rotation next year? No. Secondly, hell no with this FO. Third, he hasn’t proven dick at this level other than not being able to stay healthy so putting him in the rotation is just plain, well not going to happen.

Rebuilding-your rotation looks very much like what I scribbled down today when I realized Garza is as good as gone. Going to be ugly.

http://www.hookersorcake.com Hookers or Cake

What was your projection for our rotation like last fall? What did you think it would be this year? We had Shark, people were meh on TWood. Garza was still a injured mystery who woulda/should/needed to be traded. Feldman, Villenueva, and Jackson were all new. Not to mention Baker.
I have no idea how the Cubs will be able to find 1 more starter next year. I mean are payroll will only be at 80 million. How are we gonna find another starter with only 30-40 million?!

Kyle

You’ll be lucky to get 60 relief innings out if Vizcaino, ever.

He’s still barely ever pitched above AA. Some AAA time is definitely indicated.

Danny Ballgame

What is your 60 innings concept based off of?

Kyle

He’s been hurt almost literally every year for six years. As a professional, he’s averaged less than 50 innings per season.

BT

that’s a nice manipulation of the stats. You only get an “average” of sub-50 if you include 2 seasons of rookie/low A ball, when his season wouldn’t start until June even if he was healthy (which he appeared to be since he pitched over 40 innings those 2 half years), and the last 2 seasons when he has been hurt with essentially the same one injury. In 2010 and 2011, he pitched 85 and 97 innings. Obviously his current injury is a big deal, and can’t be ignored, but to pretend he’s spent long stretches every year on the DL using an average games played stat is completely misleading.

X the Cubs fan

Cabrera is more likely than any of them.

Patrick G

you forgot Baker and possibly Vizciano

YourResidentJag

I’ve said Theo will go after Pelfrey. I still think so.

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

Here’s hoping a contender (LA, BOS, SD, TEX) has a top SP go down – which will push urgency on their part to pick up a rental.

Derrick

Luke Or Brett any chance we can trade Garza to Col for either a package including Pomeranz who has struggled in Coors or maybe Nolan Arenado their 3rd basement who can rake. I don’t believe we can get both but one might quite be possible.

http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

I’m not sure either of those make sense for the Rockies.

Die hard

Give Theo credit starting and fueling these rumors when truth is Garza may have a damaged wing sure to fail any physical is my uneducated guess?

Believe in 2015

Debbie downer

mjhurdle

i will agree with the uneducated part.

Carew

Have you been paying attention to Garza at all this year

waittilthisyear

uneducated. bit of self awareness is refreshing

MichiganGoat

Sometimes the truth does come out

http://deleted Mr. Gonzo

I might have too much free time.
[img]http://i1295.photobucket.com/albums/b638/MasterGonzo11/GAAAAARRZZAAA_zpscd896e48.jpg[/img]

Rich H

The one I heard today if FUNNY. Garza and Vitters to StL for Wacha and James Ramsey with the kicker being that we send all the money for Garza and take back their ex closer Boggs. I nearly fell out of the chair laughing.

nkniacc13

I could see them moving a starter soon and putting Villienuva in rotation and seeing what he does again. Wonder if they move him this July as well

Rebuilding

One name to keep an eye on is Blake Swihart. Theo’s last #1 pick with the Red Sox. 21yo Switch hitting catcher with great OBP skills. High character kid who played with USa baseball. It’s everything Theo seems to like. Dempster, Doubront and Lackey are their 3-4-5 so Garza could definitely help not to mention their bullpen has been bad.

One nice thing about Swihart is that before last year he was the #73 top prospect, but struggled and dropped out if the Top 100. This year he’s playing like a Top 50 peospect. Especially as a switch hitting catcher. Also he’s 21 in A+ so he is right in the same area as our other top prospects

http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

Good stuff Rebuild. Looks like our trade pieces will go to Cali or the NE.

I wonder if we can get close the Kansas City A’s peel off of the 1950s to NY. We have 2-3 OF, 2 SP, 1 3B, 2B, all available for the low low price of a 4-5 pieces to our WS championship in 2015, 16….or you know when China surpasses the U.S economically. Oh…snap!

Eternal Pessimist

I’ll bet a renovation update is upcoming soon. The esteemed Wrigleyville alderman says he will not support renovation proposal without removal of pedestrian bridge and reduction in signage.

Nothing major in his latest, unless the signage reduction is large and reduces the amount of money for “player signage”. Also, the pedestrian bridge would keep some of the excess crowd off the street, but…whatever.

Like the idea of Swihart or the SD kid. We could use a catcher with a bit more upside and not much in minors.

Predict Garza traded on July 3 (if still healthy then). Thed see 3 sides of every trade and have trouble pulling the trigger on a deal.

Rebuilding

Not sure I can agree with the last part. The FO has been plenty willing to pull the trigger on plenty of guys. They got burned by trying to hold out for peak value on Garza last year. I don’t think they make that mistake again. I agree.with it on a position player, but with a pitcher they are one pitch away from having no value. Also with Garza and Feldman being half year buys I think they move pretty soon

praying the cubs get ready to win

Hedges is the SD catcher

Die hard

If truth to Garza to San Diego then that may explain their pitcher tonight being showcased for Cubs

Rebuilding

Good call, Die Hard. They just called up Robbie Erlin to start tonight. 22 yo lefty and the numbers in the minors were dominant until he got hurt. Strikes me as a Travis Wood type

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