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Political aficionados are plotting which party's ballot to pull in hopes of influencing a single race. Far more people likely have no plans to vote. Turnout always is low for a primary election, but this one could be particularly so, as it lacks many deeply competitive races.

"I assume it's going to be low," Secretary of State Jim Condos said of turnout, while also urging people to let their voices be heard.

About 440,000 Vermonters are registered to vote, but chances are, a scant 35,000 to 40,000 — about 8 percent — will cast ballots by the end of the day Tuesday, predicted Eric Davis, a retired Middlebury College political science professor.

The last time Vermont had such a quiet primary was 2008, when 8.5 percent of voters showed up. In 2010, an unusually active primary election, turnout was 24 percent. In 2012, 12 percent voted.

Low turnout makes one person's vote all the more valuable. Condos offered a reminder that in the past few years, numerous state House and Senate races have been decided by just a few votes. "We need to emphasize: It's important for people to vote," he said.

For those paying attention, there is plenty of reason to vote. Some are plotting carefully how to make the most of their vote in Vermont's open-primary process. They bear in mind the 1998 primary election, when Tunbridge farmer Fred Tuttle's spoof candidacy derailed Republican Jack McMullen's bid for the U.S. Senate nomination in part with the help of Democratic voters.

This year's intrigue

There's nothing as odd or quirky as the race between Tuttle and McMullen to capture the casual voter's attention on this year's ballot, but there are political strategies being plotted akin to the play of a master chess player. Playing that game requires paying attention to details.

Vermont's open-primary process means there is no political party registration. Voters receive ballots for all four major-parties and may fill out any one ballot they choose. Their choice is undisclosed, but they may not participate in more than one party's primary. That allows room for voters to roam to a race that means the most to them.

Some voters will be roaming. Others will stay in their home turf.

Dean Corren, the Progressive Party candidate for lieutenant governor, is actively asking voters to pick a Democratic ballot and write in his name. Democrats have no candidate for lieutenant governor, and Corren is hoping that having both parties' tags in the November election would help his chances against two-term Republican incumbent Lt. Gov. Phil Scott.

Democratic Party Chairwoman Dottie Deans plans to write in Corren's name because, she said, his views on issues such as creating a government-financed health coverage system match hers, but, she said, "some of my Democratic friends totally disagree with that."

Deans said if Corren wins the Democratic nomination via write-in, it remains unclear what support the Democratic Party would offer him during the general election campaign. She said she expects Corren would ask for the party state committee's endorsement. But would he have access to the Democrats' coveted voter list?

"We'll decide that at that time. Our voter checklist is extremely valuable," she said.

Deans said the Democratic Party is not telling its supporters which way to vote in the primary but is urging them to read up on the candidates and follow their own beliefs.

Cathy Voyer Lamberton usually votes Republican. She will be picking a Democratic ballot to write in Lt. Gov. Scott's name in hopes that Scott, rather than Corren, will claim the Democratic Party line in November along with his Republican label.

Lamberton, a former Republican state representative who is executive vice president of the Vermont trade group Associated General Contractors, said she considers Scott a collaborator who has proved he can work across party lines. She's willing to shed her usual allegiance to voting in the Republican primary because she feels assured about the outcome of other Republican nominations and feels strongly about this race.

"This is the one race that could be significant," said Lamberton, who asked her 1,300 Facebook friends to write in Scott's name on the Democratic ballot and share the message with their friends.

Progressive Party Vice Chairman Morgan Daybell said the Progressive Party also will steer clear of suggesting which ballot supporters pull. As for Daybell himself, he said he will be voting in the Progressive primary.

"That's the party that represents me, and that's where I'm going to go," Daybell said.

Taking a risk

The risk for Republican-minded voters who choose a Democratic ballot to write in Scott's name is that they will be missing a chance to participate in their own primary for governor and U.S. House.

Libertarian Dan Feliciano is encouraging voters to take a Republican ballot and write in his name for governor. He is airing radio ads that spell out the details of how to do that. There already are three names on the Republican ballot for governor, including Scott Milne, who has the support of much of the party establishment, along with candidates Emily Peyton and Steve Berry.

The winner will face two-term incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin in the general election. Shumlin has a primary that against H. Brooke Paige of the town of Washington, who is also running for attorney general and said he is really a Republican. A few supporters of recently fired Agency of Human Services Secretary Doug Racine have said they plan to write Racine's name in for governor on the Democratic ballot as a protest of his firing.

Davis, the political scientist, notes that a write-in campaign such as Feliciano's, when there are already other names on the ballot, is a long shot. "You can't discount any outcome," particularly with a low turnout, but he said, "I would be very surprised if he ends up with the Republican nomination."

Davis predicted about 10,000 to 15,000 voters will choose a Republican ballot, with Feliciano snaring about 1,000 votes, Peyton and Berry getting fewer than 500 each and Milne the rest.

"Barring the unexpected, Milne should get 80-90 percent," Davis said.

Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday's primary, Feliciano will be on the general election ballot in November with the Libertarian Party line and Peyton will be there as an independent.

A new candidate for the Republican nomination for attorney general emerged last week, seeking write-ins for the empty ballot line. Shane McCormack of Underhill, a lawyer, is looking to challenge Democratic incumbent Bill Sorrell.

Voters may have to wait a while to find out the full, official results that feature write-ins. Condos said town and city clerks will report the lump sum of write-in votes to his office Tuesday night, but the details of how many of those votes went to which candidates might remain unknown until the following Tuesday, aside from totals assembled by candidates, parties and the media.

Terri Hallenbeck at 999-9994 or thallenbeck@freepressmedia.com.

Logistics of primary voting

Voters in Tuesday's primary election receive four ballots when they check in at the polls — one each for the Democratic, Republican, Progressive and Liberty Union parties. There is no party registration in Vermont, so voters may choose one to fill out and turn in. The other three ballots are tossed.

As with any election, any voter can write in any name for any office. Doing so effectively, however, requires doing a little homework.

Secretary of State Jim Condos said the law requires a voter to fill in the oval next to the write-in line of a ballot and write the candidate's name as clearly and correctly as possible. Misspellings may be tolerated, but it remains up to the local Board of Civil Authority to decide a voter's intent.

For a write-in candidate to win a statewide office, he or she must receive at least 250 votes, which is half the number of names a candidate who files to get on the ballot needed.