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Is there a right way to approach the penalty shoot-out in the World Cup? Is there a wrong way?

I’ve been posting waaaay too much about this competition – no comments from the peanut gallery, please – and so this is absolutely, positively my last post on the subject.

However, as someone who’s been watching these competitions for nearly forty years and who’s seen a lot of penalty shootouts, I’ve always wondered: Is there some kind of science to this? Can a team improve its chances by thinking and reading up before the game?

And it turns out there is.

In a fascinating paper published in the International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, and available here, researchers Daniel Memmert, Stafnie Hutterman, Nortbert Hagermann, Florian Loffing and Bernd Strauss studied more than 80 research papers published on penalty-taking over the last thirty years. I had no idea there was such a body of knowledge.

(Soccer fans should note, by the way, that the researchers are work for German universities. This is surely no coincidence. The German national soccer teams have developed a superb international reputation for approaching penalty shootouts in their typically methodical and systematic way).

Here are some surprising things they turned up.

For starters, let’s look at things from the point of view of those taking the penalty.

Teams should not assume that their best-known players will do best. On the contrary, they face a terrible asymmetry of rewards: No one will applaud them for scoring, but they will be cursed if they miss – as some have. You may be better off with rising stars who have less to lose.

Under no circumstances tell the penalty taker “not to miss.” Do not put any such pressure on him at all – unless you have placed a large bet on your opponents’ winning. Telling a player not to miss makes it more likely that he will.

Meanwhile, if you’re picked to take a penalty, show confidence - or “dominance” in the parlance of psychology.

As you pick up the ball, put it on the penalty spot, and prepare to take your shot, do not avoid the goal-keeper’s eyes. On the contrary, stare him down.

Do not hurry up your kick. Take your time. Show the keeper you’re confident and composed, and prepare your shot.