Site Search Navigation

Site Navigation

Site Mobile Navigation

Egypt’s Allies Should Beware of Blank Checks

Ellen Lust is an associate professor of political science at Yale University, and the author of "Structuring Conflict in the Arab World." She is also an associate editor of the interdisciplinary journal, Middle East Law and Governance.

February 1, 2012

As Egypt’s friends and neighbors seek ways to hasten economic recovery and promote stability, they must be careful that short-term gains don’t come at the expense of long-term development. There are three lessons to keep in mind.

We have a chance to avoid repeating mistakes of the past.

First, shuttling funds to the new regime, and particularly a military-dominated one, undermines long-term growth and stability. The U.S. learned this with Mubarak: in the short run, U.S. support promoted economic stability and poster-child growth rates, but in the long run, it promoted cronyism, inequality and explosive discontent. Even if the U.S. mends fences with the new regime, it should refrain from writing blank checks toward recovery. Funding to Egypt’s governments should come with clear, carefully monitored benchmarks aimed at promoting good governance.

Second, funneling large sums into civil society in the hopes of promoting democracy and economic growth is unlikely to do either. The U.S. took this approach in the occupied Palestinian territories after the peace treaty with Israel. The result was bifurcation of the Palestinian society into Western-oriented, wealthy elite organizations and a weaker, poorer grass-roots civil society, achieving neither economic growth nor good governance. Support for civil society should be available across the political spectrum, aimed at grass-roots, welfare-oriented programs (like health, education and food) and intended to harness the entrepreneurial energy so clearly displayed in the revolution itself.

Third, Egypt’s economic recovery requires regional stability. As long as the region remains in turmoil, it will be difficult to bolster investment and tourism. As many as 1 in 7 Egyptians is employed either directly or indirectly in the tourism sector, which has taken a major hit since the revolution. Suez Canal revenue makes up a smaller portion of Egypt’s G.D.P. (at 3 percent), but is also dependent on regional stability. Allies and neighbors intent on restoring Egypt’s economy must recognize that policies elsewhere in the region ultimately affect Egypt as well.

These lessons do not provide easy answers. Yet by keeping them in mind, we have a chance to avoid repeating mistakes of the past.