Note: Five cities in Brazil are São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, Manaus and Recife.

At least 87,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 25 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.

Over the last two months, far more people have died in most of these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.

Where we found higher deaths than normal

Area

PCT. above normal

Excess
deaths

−

Reported Covid-19 deaths

=

Difference

Spain
Mar. 16 - May 10

72%

43,700

−

26,570

=

17,200

U.S.
Mar. 25 - Apr. 25

23%

63,700

−

47,430

=

16,300

U.K.
Mar. 14 - May 15

56%

59,200

−

45,226

=

14,000

Italy
March

49%

24,600

−

13,710

=

10,900

Ecuador
March - April

84%

10,100

−

1,561

=

8,500

Five cities in Brazil
Mar. 29 - May 2

47%

8,300

−

3,322

=

5,000

Netherlands
Mar. 16 - May 10

38%

8,800

−

5,416

=

3,400

Jakarta
March - April

43%

2,600

−

381

=

2,200

Thailand
March

4%

1,800

−

12

=

1,700

France
Mar. 16 - Apr. 26

34%

24,300

−

22,708

=

1,500

Istanbul
Mar. 9 - May 10

32%

3,700

−

2,272

=

1,400

Moscow
April

18%

1,800

−

642

=

1,100

Peru
April

22%

2,100

−

1,021

=

1,100

Sweden
Mar. 16 - May 10

32%

4,300

−

3,594

=

700

Portugal
Mar. 16 - May 10

11%

1,800

−

1,135

=

700

Austria
Mar. 16 - May 10

8%

900

−

607

=

300

Chile
March - April

7%

500

−

227

=

300

Switzerland
Mar. 16 - May 3

18%

1,600

−

1,473

=

100

Finland
Mar. 16 - Apr. 26

4%

200

−

190

=

<100

Israel
March

Normal

<100

−

20

=

<0

Norway
Mar. 23 - Apr. 19

4%

100

−

158

=

<0

Belgium
Mar. 16 - May 10

51%

8,500

−

8,800

=

<0

South Africa
Mar. 18 - May 19

Normal

<100

−

312

=

<0

Denmark
Mar. 29 - May 3

3%

100

−

421

=

<0

Germany
Mar. 16 - Apr. 26

3%

3,000

−

5,737

=

<0

Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes. Reported Covid-19 deaths reflect official coronavirus deaths during the period when all-cause mortality data is available, including figures that were later revised. Reported Covid-19 deaths in Istanbul are estimated based on the government’s statement that 60 percent of the country’s cases are in the city.

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Britain, which has recorded more Covid-19 deaths than any country except the United States, 59,000 more people than usual have died since mid-March — and about 14,000 more than have been captured by official death statistics.

Deaths in the U.K.

59,300+ excess deaths from March 14 to May 15

0

10,000

20,000
weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

Deaths in 2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Note: Recent data is provisional and may increase as more deaths are counted. Sources: Office for National Statistics; National Records of Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. In most places, the disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths reflect limited testing for the virus rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, about 355,000 people had died worldwide of the coronavirus as of Thursday.

But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, researchers say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.

“Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. “In a lot of places the pandemic has been going on for long enough that there has been sufficient time for late death registrations to come in, giving us a more accurate picture of what the mortality really was.”

The differences are particularly stark in countries that have been slow to acknowledge the scope of the problem. In March and April, the Indonesian government attributed 381 deaths to the coronavirus in Jakarta. But over 2,700 people more than normal were buried in Jakarta cemeteries during those months, according to data from the city’s Department of Parks and Cemeteries.

Ecuador recorded about 10,000 more deaths than usual compared to the same period in the last three years — about six times higher than the reported number of Covid-19 deaths in the country during that time. And in Istanbul, the city recorded about 3,700 more deaths than expected from March 9 through May 10.

Ecuador

10,100+ excess deaths from March to April

14,000 monthly deaths

7,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Istanbul, Turkey

No data

3,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to May 10

No data

2,000 weekly deaths

1,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Five cities in Brazil

No data

8,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 29 to May 2

No data

6,000 weekly deaths

3,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Peru

2,100+ excess deaths from April to undefined

11,000 monthly deaths

5,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Thailand

1,800+ excess deaths from March to undefined

47,000 monthly deaths

23,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Moscow, Russia

1,800+ excess deaths in April

12,000 monthly deaths

6,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Jakarta, Indonesia

2,600+ excess deaths from March to April

4,000 monthly burials

2,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Chile

500+ excess deaths from March to April

11,000 monthly deaths

5,000

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.

These estimates were made for each country by comparing the total number of people who died this year to the number of deaths that would be expected given local mortality trends, adjusted to account for changes over time. The Economist is also tracking these deaths, known as excess deaths, in a similar way.

It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.

“At this stage, it’s a partial snapshot,” said Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the United Nations. “It’s one view of the problem that reflects that most acute side of the situation, primarily through the hospital-based system.”

That is likely to change.

“In the next couple of months,” Mr. Gerland said, “a much clearer picture will be possible.”

A surge in deaths across Europe

Despite the early data, many European countries have reported clear deviations from normal patterns of deaths, according to data released by the European Mortality Monitoring Project, a research group that collects weekly mortality data from 24 European countries.

In Italy, almost 50 percent more people died in March than the average for that month in the last five years, about 25,000 deaths more than normal in a single month.

Spain

43,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 10

9,000

19,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Germany

3,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to Apr. 26

13,000

26,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

France

24,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to Apr. 26

9,000

18,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Sweden

4,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 10

1,000

2,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Switzerland

1,600+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 3

1,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

U.K.

59,200+ excess deaths from Mar. 14 to May 15

12,000

24,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Portugal

1,800+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 10

1,000

3,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Belgium

8,500+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 10

2,000

4,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Austria

900+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 10

1,000

2,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Netherlands

8,800+ excess deaths from Mar. 16 to May 10

2,000

5,000 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Italy

24,600+ excess deaths in March

No data

37,000

74,000 monthly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.

In some countries, like Belgium and France, authorities are working to include Covid-19 deaths outside of hospitals in their daily reports, or adjusting the overall Covid-19 death totals once a death is confirmed in a place like a nursing or retirement home.

Others, like Britain’s Office for National Statistics, have started to release mortality data after death certificates have been processed, confirming those that mention Covid-19. This provides a more accurate, if delayed, account of mortality than the hospital figures released each day by Public Health England.

Not all countries have seen excess deaths

In a handful of countries there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. The reasons for this are varied and will become more clear in the months ahead as countries process and certify deaths.

In Norway, Denmark and Finland, demographers say the low mortality is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — but also because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.

Israel’s coronavirus outbreak has been comparatively small and well-contained, with only 245 Covid-19 deaths recorded. Preliminary mortality data is only available through March, however, and could look different in April.

And in South Africa, weekly deaths are lower than normal due to a drop in deaths from non-natural causes like traffic accidents and homicides, according to the South African Medical Research Council. It is also likely that it is still too early in the country’s outbreak to pick up a notable spike in deaths.

Norway

100+
excess deaths from Mar. 23 to Apr. 19

1,000 weekly
deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Denmark

100+
excess deaths from Mar. 29 to May 3

500 weekly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Finland

200+
excess deaths from Mar. 16 to Apr. 26

1,000 weekly
deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

South Africa

Fewer than 100 excess deaths from Mar. 18 to May 19

4,000

9,000 weekly
deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Israel

No excess deaths

2,000

4,000
monthly deaths

Jan.

March

Dec.

2020

Expected deaths in 2020

Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.

Age breakdowns in mortality data will provide an even clearer picture of the role of Covid-19 in excess deaths. In Sweden, for example, a high mortality rate among men aged 80 and older accounted for the largest increase in deaths, suggesting that the overall numbers understate the severity of the outbreak for older people in particular.

Even taking into account the new numbers, experts say the death toll to date could have been much worse.

“Today’s rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts,” said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.”

Read more about the methodology and download data for excess mortality from The New York Times on GitHub.

To estimate expected deaths, we fit a linear model to reported deaths in each country from 2015 to January 2020. The model has two components — a linear time trend to account for demographic changes and a smoothing spline to account for seasonal variation. For countries limited to monthly data, the model includes month as a fixed effect rather than using a smoothing spline.

Some countries have less historical data available. For countries with three or fewer years of data, the model uses a simple average of deaths in the observed years. For the United Kingdom, the model accounts for the number of bank holidays in a given week, since deaths are not registered during bank holidays.

About the data: The all-cause mortality data obtained from each country varies: Some countries publish daily death totals dating back decades, and others only for the last few years. Places with less historical data, such as Istanbul, make for rougher historical comparisons. Historical baselines used to calculate excess deaths do not adjust for changes in population or any expected reduction in recent deaths from non-Covid-19 causes. And they do not adjust for two deadly flu epidemics in Europe during the winters of 2014-15 and 2017-18. The data in Italy includes towns accounting for 86 percent of the population. The data in the U.S. accounts for 86 percent of the population.

Correction: An earlier version of a chart with this article misstated the average historical number of deaths in France during the first week of April. More complete historical data has since been added. The average for the week was about 11,000, not 9,400.