–Continuing our health care analogies and abstractions, Jonathan Chait imagines the vote as poker — Democrats may be so risk averse they can be bluffed off a strong hand.

–Greg Sargent gets a look at the NRCC “Code Red” ads reportedly going up in wavering Dems’ districts. From the script: “Is ________’s political career on life support?” Exclusive video of the Democratic response here.

–Meanwhile, the AP has an update on the state of negotiations on the Hill. Speaker Pelosi sounded optimistic after a closed-door session Wednesday night, and the anti-abortion bloc does not appear to be posing as much of a threat as some surmised. Stupak ally Rep. Kildee says he’s fine with the Senate language. The CBO score of the latest changes is expected soon; then it’s show time.

–Obama has scheduled another health care rally, this time in Ohio. More than just trying to move the needle of public opinion, I think these events serve to show Democrats in purple states such as Missouri, Pennsylvania, etc. that health care can still fire up a crowd and that an Obama appearance is worth a lot come midterm campaign time. In other words, reassure vulnerable House Dems a “yes” vote isn’t a political liability.

–And finally, the Obamas are hosting a screening of the HBO mini-series “The Pacific” tonight, with producers Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg in attendance. As you can see, the White House movie theater makes for interesting photographs.