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Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

Very interesting about the Stubbs bat speed comment. Someone, who I don't recall currently, said that after watching Stubbs a few times that he was swinging a slow bat and wouldn't be able to catch up with any bigtime fastballs.

I figured Stubbs would fall somewhere in the 8-12 range on this list. I am surprised that someone like Sean Watson or Chris Valaika were not somewhere on the back end of the list....

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

With Edwin Encarnacion in the majors and Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring in the minors, I'd so trade Juan Francisco while his stock is high.

I wouldn't be eager to. He's got high ceiling LH power to all fields, and that's huge in GAB. By the time the young LH sock in the Reds lineup is getting expensive, he might be ready. He may end up at 1B, who knows, so EdE or Frazier or whoever could stay at 3B.
The only other LH bat with a modicum of power in the system is Dorn, and he's really a line drive hitter. If Waring and Frazier both develop, those are the two who are redundant, in my opinion, given that they're both righty sticks.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

I wouldn't trade Juan Francisco. You have to consider his youth. This kid could stay at Dayton two more years and still be on track. He obviously has several major issues, but his power potential is extremely high based on performance so far. Ignore the "logjam" at particular positions. Not an issue this low in minor league chain.

Have to say that I am pleased Reds did well on BA's Rookie League lists, but disappointed with Midwest list and expect further disappointment as we go up the chain. Tendency is to focus on Reds prospects, but when listed with other teams' kids you realize that Reds system is pretty good but certainly nothing special. Thought Reds had a super pitching staff at Dayton in first half, yet none of those pitchers are top twenty for the League. (Some moved up pretty early, could appear on High A or AA list.)

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

Have to say that I am pleased Reds did well on BA's Rookie League lists, but disappointed with Midwest list and expect further disappointment as we go up the chain. Tendency is to focus on Reds prospects, but when listed with other teams' kids you realize that Reds system is pretty good but certainly nothing special. Thought Reds had a super pitching staff at Dayton in first half, yet none of those pitchers are top twenty for the League. (Some moved up pretty early, could appear on High A or AA list.)

Don't fret. When it comes to having a farm system that's "special," you're really looking for those few "special" players, and the Reds have their share of those. A glowing review of Johnny Cueto means more than 3 lukewarn write-ups, in my opinion.

I'm also a little disappointed that we didn't see anyone else from Dayton in the top 20, but I think the kind of guy we may have hoped for -- Valaika, Turner (at least for me) -- is not the kind of player to light up these lists. Solid grinders. Chris Buckley has always liked this kind of position player, so far as I can tell, so I plan on getting used to having a system that tends more to the functional than the occasionally spectacular.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

The MWL was pretty strong this year, prospect wise.

As we go further up the chain, I would not be surprised to see the following guys in the FSL - Bruce and Cueto are locks. Then I could see Dorn being on there, as well as maybe a guy like Daryl Thompson, Sean Watson or someone else rounding off toward the end of the list. I also would think Travis Wood would be on there if he were to be eligible, although I don't know how many innings one has to throw to be eligble for the list.
SL - We will probably not see a whole lot here outside of Cueto with maybes from Rosales or Roenicke (if elgible).
IL - Votto, Bruce, Bailey are locks. Matt Maloney is a maybe?

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I wouldn't be eager to. He's got high ceiling LH power to all fields, and that's huge in GAB. By the time the young LH sock in the Reds lineup is getting expensive, he might be ready. He may end up at 1B, who knows, so EdE or Frazier or whoever could stay at 3B.
The only other LH bat with a modicum of power in the system is Dorn, and he's really a line drive hitter. If Waring and Frazier both develop, those are the two who are redundant, in my opinion, given that they're both righty sticks.

.301 OB. I'd punt while I had the favorable field position.

If he ends up at 1B, the Reds already have Votto. Plus, I don't want a low OB hitter at 1B or an OF corner, so he'd pretty much have to progress as a 3B for me to have an ounce of interest in him (or learn how to catch). The Reds have got Frazier, whom I prefer exponentially. I'd find someone else who was willing to construct a fantasy around Francisco and deal him for someone I really liked.

Don't get me wrong, I like that Francisco had a season that got some attention. It's just that I don't subscribe to the notion that the organization should obsessively cling to every kid in the system because you never know. Place bets on your favorites, use the rest in talent acquisition.

Last edited by M2; 09-28-2007 at 03:52 PM.

Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The MWL was pretty strong this year, prospect wise.

As we go further up the chain, I would not be surprised to see the following guys in the FSL - Bruce and Cueto are locks. Then I could see Dorn being on there, as well as maybe a guy like Daryl Thompson, Sean Watson or someone else rounding off toward the end of the list. I also would think Travis Wood would be on there if he were to be eligible, although I don't know how many innings one has to throw to be eligble for the list.
SL - We will probably not see a whole lot here outside of Cueto with maybes from Rosales or Roenicke (if elgible).
IL - Votto, Bruce, Bailey are locks. Matt Maloney is a maybe?

It will be interesting to see where things come out though.

Starters -- Bailey, Cueto, and possibly Maloney (at AA) are the only starters I'd expect to see. BA doesn't usually reward numbers like Watsons' at High-A, or even Thompson's, which are a bit better. Can't see them going with Wood this year, but who knows?

Relievers -- At the AA level, the Reds have real strength in the bullpen -- Roenicke, Pelland (since promoted), Viola, Guevera (not the type for BA). Perhaps one or two of them get mention at AA, or perhaps on High-A list. They should. Roenicke was BA's top Florida State League reliever on its best tools list.

Positions -- Combining all remaining levels, the only position players with a shot would seem to be Votto and Bruce (locks if eligible) and possibly Dorn. Sleeper -- Miguel Perez hit very well after injury.

Re: BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)

Originally Posted by dougdirt

As we go further up the chain, I would not be surprised to see the following guys in the FSL - Bruce and Cueto are locks. Then I could see Dorn being on there, as well as maybe a guy like Daryl Thompson, Sean Watson or someone else rounding off toward the end of the list. I also would think Travis Wood would be on there if he were to be eligible, although I don't know how many innings one has to throw to be eligble for the list.

Got to figure Bruce and Cueto will be top five selections.

I'd be shocked if Watson made the list. He didn't make it in the MWL and he got his head handed him to him in the FSL.

Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain would be locks, but I don't know if they threw enough innings to qualify.

So that's 16 guys counting Bruce and Cueto, potentially 18. Then you've got guys like Alcides Escovar, Jay Rainville, Colin Curtis, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Thompson and Greg Golson. I'd be surprised if anyone else from the Sarasota club makes it, but if I had to pick a sleeper from the Reds organization here, I'd go with Jose Castro.

Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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