Miller's negatives rise in polls

Alaska GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller appears to have suffered significant erosion in support after several weeks of nearly uninterrupted bad press.

Two new polls released Thursday suggested that his unfavorable ratings have spiked and that Sen. Lisa Murkowski, running as a write-in candidate, holds a comfortable lead over the tea party-backed candidate who defeated her in August for the Republican nomination.

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Both polls came with caveats — they were conducted for groups that oppose Miller’s candidacy and were subject to the uncertainties of surveying a race with a write-in candidate. But they bolstered a widespread impression among political professionals in Alaska and D.C. that the flood of negative publicity has taken its toll.

Miller’s negatives have jumped from 51 percent in early October to 68 percent in the most recent Hays Research Group poll of 500 likely voters, conducted Monday and Tuesday. In that poll, paid for by a local union that has endorsed Democrat Scott McAdams in the race, Miller finished third with 23 percent among five candidates whose names were mentioned. McAdams came in second with 29 percent but trailed the 34 percent who said they would vote for a write-in candidate. Murkowski’s name was not mentioned.

When Murkowski’s name was included in a survey conducted between Monday and Wednesday by Hellenthal & Associates, an Alaska Republican polling firm, she held a 14-percentage-point lead over Miller, who received 29 percent. McAdams came in third with 23 percent in the poll of 400 likely voters paid for by Alaskans Standing Together, a pro-Murkowski political action committee. In that poll, Miller’s unfavorable rating was 62 percent to Murkowski’s 40 percent.

The bleak findings for Miller were released on the same day as his last big event before Election Day: a rally in Anchorage with his most prominent endorser, Sarah Palin, who played a key role in facilitating his primary election victory. Local news accounts of the Thursday evening rally estimated the crowd size at several hundred.

Miller’s fade in the polls follows the handcuffing of a journalist at a Miller campaign event by the candidate's security team and heightened scrutiny of his statements and finances.

Earlier this week, a judge ordered the release of Miller’s employment records from his time as part-time local government attorney. The records painted an unbecoming picture of Miller, which included an ethics violation involving office computers. In one of many unflattering e-mails released, Miller wrote in March 2008: "I lied about accessing all of the computers. I then admitted about accessing the computers but lied about what I was doing. Finally, I admitted what I did.”

Alaska Republican consultant Art Hackney, who said he is neutral in the race, said the effect of it all has been noticeable.