Stuff

The first YouGov/Sun poll since the spending review has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. It’s the smallest Conservative lead for a week or so, but there’s no massive change from the pre-CSR polls – no collapse or increase in Tory support – nothing, in fact, that couldn’t be normal variation within the margin of error. What is notable is the Liberal Democrat score: 10% is the lowest YouGov have ever recorded them, the last time any pollster had them that low was 1997.

Naturally YouGov asked a large number of questions on the spending review itself, which I’ll post about later once the Sun release them.

I don’t know if there are other polls tonight – Channel 4 News said a poll tonight would have the Lib Dems at a 20 year low. Clearly this shouldn’t apply to this poll, YouGov haven’t been around for 20 years, and it’s only 13 years since another pollster had them on 10%. That said, it could just have been human error.

106 Responses to “YouGov – 41/40/10”

Given that the coalition is 80% conservative and 20% lib dem, why are the tories doing quite well and the libs very badly? If the shape of the cuts is so unpopular and the lib dems have toned down what the tories would have done if left to their own devices, why is it not the other way round?

@Colin Green -“Given that the coalition is 80% conservative and 20% lib dem, why are the tories doing quite well and the libs very badly?”
Most (possible) Conservative supporters like what the Conservatives are doing. Most (possible) LD supporters do not.
Labour mop up the anti-government votes.

@Eoin
You should listen to your missus. What’s going to change between this poll and Saturdays? About 1% of Tories on YouGov are going to get the heeby-jeebies about the cuts and swing across to Labour.
40 40 10
You’ve got to be wrong sometimes.

Truthfully, I expected the Cons to gain for a while, to maybe a +6 lead.

If they can’t gain now, it must be of concern to them. The effect of the cuts, once felt must surely give Labour a lead from this position.

The news has been interesting, as yesterday, the Coalition probably thought they had done OK. However, the impact on the disabled and the IFS report are getting some prominent coverage and unpicking what GO must have thought was a good position.

Absolutely delighted……….I expected a bit of a reversal of roles tonight , followed by a bounce on Sunday when people realise what a treasure we have in the Treasury……..anyway, you doubters, it’s good news for the future of the UK, bad news for freeloaders, a reality check for those who exploit the genuinely needy.

@ Chris Lane – my totally unscientific poll of those I’ve met today indicates that AJ did well. I would have preferred Ed Balls or Yvette, but I recognise that they might well have blinded with their ‘dismal’ science.

For the moment, seems like EM’s political judgement was vindicated … on my totally unscientific poll!

Maybe you should delay the party….I think the CSR will unpick unfavourably for the Conservatives over the coming days. For me, a good start for the Blues at this point would have been a leap upwards for a time, before the impact hits and this lead falls.

My estimation of the minor lift Lab need over the weekend, Syzsgy, is based on the effect AJ’s brilliance will have on floaters who catch any of his interviews.
It’s great for Lab that he is sneeered at, which we have seen on here, but there they makea the bigga mistakea.

Some folk on here think Yougov is the only game in town and not really much change in the past few days, though still disappointing from an LD Prospective and indeed those who like pluralism but I’m certainly not panicking yet. We need more polls to judge the real trend, even if things are difficult for the Liberal Democrats and I may not agree with every decision I’m certainly still a coalition supporter. Would liked to have the seen the Winter Fuel payment and Bus passes revisted though, why should the wealthy get some of these benefits.

Not sure if you are on this thread, but thanks for your reply on the previous thread, Appreciate the time you take to reply to questions, and always in a polite manner (with your party colours on your sleeve!)

How does the funding work in Scotland for the SNP while they are governing?

@Garry K……….Thanks for that. We do have 41/2 yrs to sort out the mess, so I’m feeling very optimistic, I live in a very buoyant London and this is the powerhouse of the economy, having said that, manufacturing is booming, figures published this week show the biggest growth in manufacturing since 1968. I do find the left’s obsession with minorities a bit negative, if they can try to overcome the grief of losing the election, and concentrate on the good things that this country is doing, it would help everyone.Their current stance is to object to everything……..totally counterproductive and bitter, they are desperate to see the Coalition fail which means the country fails………..Tony Blair must be turning in his caviar….I don’t know whether anyone has noticed, but there are people in this country who don’t rely on benefits, they work for a living, and there are more of them every day…..I would ask the Left to stop undermining the recovery.

I look at it this way. What could really undermine the recovery is this short, sharp shock. More cuts = more job losses. More job losses = more benefits paid and less disposable income. Less disposable income = suppressed demand. Suppressed demand = slow growth. Slow growth = less of deficit paid. Less of the deficit paid = more cuts….

And when you say we, I can assure you I will be fighting locally in the next 4 1/2 years to get the Coalition out ;-)

If AV does get through, I’m pretty sure there will be a LD split. But then, it’s only a matter of time until both the Tories (Liberal Conservatives and, basically, a hard-line UKIP) and Labour (Socialist and New – not necessarily called that, mind you) have their own splits.

It may sound ridiculous but it’s happened before when the Whigs (basically) gave rise to Conservative, Labour and the Lib Dems (despite Cons being known as Tories, the hardline royalist Tory party was really the one that became extinct). AV would mean smaller parties could be more viable and in coalition power, so nothing really to keep with Blair/Clegg/Cameron in their new direction for their respective parties.

Apologies for the history lesson – I’m sure you already knew. All I meant to say was, the LDs must know they face oblivion (unless the economy is a storming success) but they feel it’s worth the sacrifice for power. If any MPs didn’t get that, what on Earth did they think the outcome would be?

There’s no doubt that police forces can cope with cuts in staff. I was at our force HQ yesterday and, as usual, it was almost impossible to park (my unmarked police car) as there were something like 400-500 private cars parked there.

If the money was found by proper reform, the cuts might even have a beneficial effect long-term on the police. Heaven knows we have a lot of cobwebs that need blowing away.

As for CCs being loyal Tories, I don’t think that’s right. They are loyal lickspittles, but their politics are negotiable. They will ingratiate themselves with whoever is in power, in the hope of advancement. Most of them have spent the last 20 years going through the process of repeated promotions by saying the right things to their bosses. Actual policing is a distant memory for most of them. Part of the reason we need to scrap a few ranks…

@Julian Gilbert……….Creative opposition is healthy, we don’t have one……! How can the people that crashed the economy have any credibility when it comes to rebuilding it, the total denial of responsibility puts me in mind of a drunk in a car crash.

I’m not a Lib Dem supporter, but I hope I have respect for the party, their deep traditions in British politics, and their genuine current dilemma.
It seems plausible to me that Nick Clegg (who spent a lot of time at the centre of the EU) would like to lead a continental-style liberal party, something along the lines of the German FDP.
Strategically though, this is clearly a dead end because the Conservative party is not the German CDU, and there is no political room to the right of them, except for populist anti-immigrant Xenophobia.

Also, I doubt that most Liberal Democrat activists would be happy to go in this direction. There is a legitimate Liberal Democrat case for the coalition’s cuts as a response to crisis, but perhaps now is the time to start asking about post-crisis aspirations, and then consider your position .

Hooded Man
Posters who know more will correct me .. but my understanding is “short” money goes to the opposition to partially balance the advantages the party in government has in terms of getting advisers etc in post. the SNP receive 2short” money for Westminster but not in Scotland. Labour gat for both Scotland and uk. The Lib Dems get a little for Scotland but lose (and, the press believe, did not realise they would lose), Westmister “short” money. A few weeks ago Labour advertised for more than 30 posts.
Thanks for your considerate comment

@Ken -“How can the people that crashed the economy have any credibility when it comes to rebuilding it, the total denial of responsibility puts me in mind of a drunk in a car crash.”
I completely agree with you. I didn’t know you were a red too.
Sack the leaders of all the banks and financial institutions responsible for the crisis. ;)