August 04, 2017

"Talk is over" over North Korea? - How the crisis can be diffused.

For a Chinese perspective on Kim's paranoia, MadamFu Ying's May 2017 Strategic Paper written for the John L Thornton China Centre of the Brookings Institution is instructive.

What has come to pass now is a sad repetition of an increasingly unstable cycle of mutual mistrust and escalating confrontation between North Korea and the US, driving all parties to the brink. However, what has not been clearly grasped is what drives the supposedly mad Kim to such lengths. He is hell-bent on acquiring a credible nuclear insurance policy to ensure survival against a continual US hidden agenda of regime change. He is unlikely to trust mere words of assurances from the United States, his arch-enemy, especially from a capricious Donald Trump.

There is now increasing talk of a military option. A US preemptive strike will trigger an immediate catastrophe, beginning with Seoul, which is cannon fodder for thousands of heavy artillery just across the border. Subsequent escalation, which is likely, will pull the major military powers, including China and Russia, into the fray. Even WW3 cannot be ruled out.

Let alone a hot missile shoot-out, even a land-based decapitation exercise inside North Korea would lead to uncontrollable consequences. It would involve deployment of substantial numbers of US and South Korean troops inside North Korea, if only to secure the nuclear arsenal and to control any subsequent upheaval. China and Russia are unlikely to sit tight watching the geopolitical landscape in the Korean Peninsula dramatically change to their disadvantage.

Yes, China has economic levers to bear on North Korea. But causing a massive humanitarian crisis at China's doorstep is not an appealing option. Nor would China want military unification of the Peninsula on American terms. Let's not forget that Russia has also quietly supplying much needed oil to North Korea through Singapore Click here

The Economist(5 August) urges all parties to keep calm to avoid risks of a nuclear war, while proposing more sanctions to contain North Korea. Sadly, this has not worked. It will not stop North Korea perfecting its nuclear ICBM capability, reported by early 2018. The clock is ticking.

However, if the United States genuinely gives up a hidden agenda of regime change and concentrates only on de-nuclearization, the North Korean crisis may not be insoluble after all, according to Eric X Li's Op-ed in the Washington Post of 5 May.

Trump should broker a direct deal with Kim in the form of a formal, open, bilateral Non-Aggression Treaty, backed by an immediate program of verifiable de-escalation on both sides predicating on Kim freezing further efforts to develop ICBMs in exchange for easing of sanctions.

Other parties, including China and South Korea, can help with investments to alleviate the economic plight of the North Korean people. Let's not forget that the Viet Cong regime wasn't toppled by war. What has turned Vietnam into an American ally is economics.