Picks

Luke List ($10,000) - The only players with higher win probabilities this week are Matt Kuchar (3.54%), and Sergio Garcia (3.59%), and the difference is negligible with List sitting at a 3.49% chance of winning the Valero. List is right in the middle of a breakout season, and it’s only a matter of time before he finally gets his first PGA Tour win. He’s coming off a third place finish at the RBC, good for his third Top 3 finish to go along with two runner-ups. In this extremely weak field, he’s in a great position to pick up the big win that he’s been so close to getting.

Brendan Steele ($8,900) - Brendan Steele feels at home when he plays TPC San Antonio. Steele has missed the cut just once in his seven starts here, and has finishes of T13, T8, T4, as well as his first career win in 2011. Steele ranks sixth in both win probability and value on DailyRoto’s value ranking. Statistically, he fits the bill too, ranking fifth on Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee and fourth in birdie or better% 175-200 yards. At $8,900, lock and load Steele at the one course where he’s a true threat to win.

Jimmy Walker ($8,200) - After a really slow start, Jimmy Walker has been on a steady track back to the form he was in when he won the PGA Championship in 2016. After missing the first three cuts of the season, Walker has played the weekend in six of his last seven starts. He was impressive at the Masters two weeks ago, finishing T20 and closing with three straight rounds of 71. You need to have your stuff in check to shoot under par at the Masters for three straight rounds, so that’s a great sign. Walker is another player who plays great at TPC San Antonio. He picked up his fifth career win here in 2015, and even in a really rough 2017 season, he was able to manage a T13. At age 39, Jimmy Walker still has the potential to win a few more tournaments before he moves on to the senior tour.

Kevin Streelman ($7,700) - Streelman has been a model of consistency making 13/14 cuts this year. His formula? Don’t make bogeys. Streelman leads the Tour in bogey avoidance making bogey on just 11.11% of his holes. He ranks 20th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and he’s also the fourth best scrambler on Tour. When he’s not gaining off-the-tee, he’s making those shots up with really good scrambling ability. Bottom line, Streelman makes cuts and doesn’t make bogeys. He has decent upside as well, sprinkling in three Top 10 finishes across his 13 made cuts this year. Advanced statistics support Streelman’s case too ranking him in the Top 10 in value this week.

Julian Suri ($7,600) - Julian Suri mainly plays on the European Tour, but he’s shown lately that he can certainly hack it over here. More specifically, he can hack it in Texas. Suri nearly won his group in the WGC-Matchplay at Austin Country Club, but he finished behind eventual winner, Bubba Watson. Suri was the only one of seven opponents that Bubba didn’t destroy, as he was able to halve his match. A week later, Suri entered the Houston Open and finished eighth with three rounds in the 60s. He makes rounds under 70 a habit over on the Euro Tour, resulting in a lot of upside for a low price.

Scott Piercy ($7,400) - Scott Piercy is striking the ball phenomenally this year, and as a result is having perhaps his best season to date. Piercy has made 12/14 cuts this season, with seven of those finishes being inside the Top 25. He missed the cut at the Valero last season, but has proven he can play well here with T18 and T40 finishes in his two previous starts. Piercy is only an above average putting performance away from an easy Top 10 finish. He’s lost strokes on the greens in 11 straight events. That’s beyond comprehension. At some point, he has to at least get lucky and knock a couple of long putts in. Even without his putter, he’s been a safe play more often than not this year.