"Despite our favorable view on the ph3 PREVAIL study (data 2H13e), we initiated Neutral on MDVN last December because we felt the risk-reward was balanced ahead of the hormonenaïve data and Xtandi quarterly prints. Our updated analysis suggests that despite availability of Zytiga and Xtandi for some patients after progression (the principal risk to a survival [OS] benefit, in our view), the data will suggest a greater magnitude of OS benefit than Zytiga (the principal debate)," said Roden.

"We view PREVAIL as Medivation’s opportunity to differentiate Xtandi vis-à-vis Zytiga’s ph3 ‘302 study. While we see low-probability risk to MDVN shares if the result is similar to Zytiga, we think a statistically-significant result in PREVAIL would eliminate binary risk, thereby making MDVN more broadly ownable," he added.

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