Labour will win 2020’s General Election

I believe the Labour Party will form a majority government in 2020. Some people may think that fanciful, even lunacy, but the leadership election of 2015 has been an earth-moving tremor: not an actual earthquake, but a shakeup that will have reactions.
First, there will be a populist swing leftwards by the ‘new’ majority of the Party. The feeling of rejuvenation will sustain Jeremy Corbyn and his Shadow Cabinet for at least the next six months. Much of what he says is simple commonsense. It’s what he fails to say that will be his downfall.
His election also allows the Conservative government free rein. They claim to have the centre and right, and Her Majesty’s Opposition will be, in the eyes of the electorate, weak on the area that matters most – workers’ wallets and purses. There is also a threat to EU membership and the SNP is clearly intent on breaking up the UK. The ideological freedom these offer the Tories is troubling. A Labour Party that picks and chooses its ‘principles’ is manna from heaven.
The Labour Party was formed on the basis of protecting the rights of the working man. Gradually it evolved to embrace women, and embark on a mission to look after the poor, the sick, the disadvantaged and the disabled. My belief is that the pendulum has swung too far: we now concentrate on those who are not working for whatever reason – all but a tiny, decimal-pointed percentage choose not to work – and forget the working men and women. These people need a government that offers solutions to boost real jobs and the economy; for industry, commerce and all forms of employment to pay decent, good and rising wages; for better, financially secure prospects; and for a country that boasts lower borrowing and fair and equal taxation.
I have yet to hear any details or policies among Mr Corbyn’s protestations to the country. A Labour government will always care for those who need it – we formed the NHS and rebuilt the country after the ’39-’45 war, despite Tory opposition, for heaven’s sake – but the next General Election will not be fought on the NHS or public service jobs. It will be a battle for people’s pockets and wallets.
Of course taxing the rich and investing in infrastructure are laudable, but they would happen under any Labour government. We are a Party of inclusivity, not an opposition based on envy. People need to be told the benefits of policy, not the negatives of current government. It is not moaning and crying from the sidelines that the electorate want; it is viable, achievable, positive alternatives that resonate with the country’s broad ambitions and, sadly, personal greed at the poorest levels.
It is the Tory methodology to attack, blame and vilify those who are least able to answer back; it is the Labour Party way to create a fairer financial environment where social and public services are funded by all. Re-distribution of wealth is only part of the answer; the real solution is to create more sustainable economic growth. I’ve seen the Tories in action over the years: they don’t want growth; they want a return to the days when the rich ruled with impunity, and dangled a carrot in front of those who aspired for more. Few reached that carrot.
Economically, we haven’t got a cat-in-hells chance of persuading the electorate that simply taxing the rich and making massive, untried changes is the right way. Labour’s winning strategy in 2020 will be fashioned from the polarisation of the two major Parties. That will create the earthquake: it won’t be a tremor like 2015 that disturbs without stirring the majority of the electorate into action.
The General Election of 2020 will be fought, won and lost on the economy: not just the growing National Debt, nor the inability to dent sufficiently the ‘deficit, but personal, household economies. The arrogance of the Conservatives and their ideological bent to maintain and improve the lot of the wealthiest at the expense of the majority, not just the poorest, will form the bedrock of an anti-Tory backlash.
The Labour Party, meanwhile, will recognise that a 70+-year-old with socialist ideology, but no true experience of running a country, is not a global statesman, nor a Prime Minister. His campaign in 2015 will have done the job, though. There will be calls for a steady hand, a leader who understands the economy as well as the principles on which the Party was founded and through which it has evolved.
We will elect a charismatic leader; someone who can bring together the various factions of the Party under the realisation that somehow we have to offer alternatives: solutions that change people’s minds and make them vote Labour for selfish as well as selfless, feel-good reasons. This new leader will not please everyone, but they will have the statesmanlike qualities that the UK has missed since Gordon Brown’s recommendations following the 2008 crash. If the UK had continued his policies we would have continued to rise out of the impending recession instead of wallowing in it for five long years.
Much of what I believe will come to pass in 2020 is based not on my personal belief that Jeremy Corbyn is the wrong choice, but on the conviction that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The Jeremy Corbyn political ground tremor will eventually lead to the earthquake that shakes the United Kingdom back to greatness under a Labour government. I will then thank Mr Corbyn wholeheartedly.