The focus will now be on the capital markets & the economy in longer
trm perspective...I have wanted to do this for a long while and have
wearied of outlining near term perspectives...Short term opinion has
become an overcrowded field...

About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm
partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader,
and CIO who has superb track
record with multi $billion
equities and fixed income
portfolios. Advanced degrees,
CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms:
CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, November 02, 2015

SPX -- You Folks Can Take It From Here

Back in late Sep., the SPX fell to its most oversold levels since late 2011. It has rallied since then
to a strongly overbought position currently. As an old guy who likes the occasional good trade, this
development was manna from heaven. So, I have taken the money and run. As I said when the
market went into its Sep. tailspin, I thought the guys jumped the gun because I could not figure out
a bear case. I conceded the market may have been overdue for a correction, but I did not see the
bear. I still do not, but also do not see the fundamentals as warranting a substantial and sustainable
upside from here. Since I would be happy with SPX 2160 by the end of next year, and since the index
has just topped 2100 again, I am pleased to book a large short term profit and take my chances that
the next 14 months will provide another opportunity or two to capitalize on a deep oversold.

The thinking here is that the easy, low risk, high return money has been made. It has been a neat
bull market from early 2009. The Fed is no longer providing the wonderful liquidity tailwind from QE
and the stock market is expensive on a valuation basis. There are some interesting bull stories that
are incubating now, but as Warren Buffet was fond of saying, this is a game where you are the batter
and there is no umpire and thus you can wait for your pitch. I plan to keep the blog going as before,
but when it comes to US equities, you now know where I stand.