Is David Wright Finished?

Why shouldn't I? He's a 5-time All-Star at a plus defensive position for the only organiziation to pay him for his baseball acumen. His power stroke returned to the tune of 29 HRs and a .503 SLG in 2010, making his inaugural season at Citi Field appear all the more aberrational. He just turned 28 last December, signaling that Wright's peak years are upon us.

Yes, hitters with high ISO scores tend to see less strikes than those
who lack such power. I think it's pretty easy to understand why -- if
you can't do damage (ie: hit for extra-bases or hit HRs) a pitcher
should be more likely to challenge you at the plate. And, hitters with
high ISO scores tend to strike out more. In order to hit HRs most
hitters have to emphasize a certain approach at the plate that also puts
them at risk for the K.

The first observation about hitters with power seeing less strikes provides a mixed bag for Wright over his career:

(Note: Zone% provides a percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone by a batter.)

Until Wright's monstrous 2007 season, he frequently saw as many if not more strikes in the zone compared to league average. Then pitchers finally wised up and started pitching around him. Opposing pitchers appeared more aggressive in 2009 during Wright's slump, but threw fewer strikes in 2010 as Wright rediscovered his power.

While there's no groundbreaking material about the percentage of strikes thrown Wright's way relative to his power, something did change regarding Wright's strikeout rates over the same period:

As Mets fans know all too well from Wright's recent body of work, his strikeout rate spiked in 2009 relative to both his career average and the league average. That spike carried over to 2010, while his BB% fell to its lowest level since 2006. That BB% dip helped product Wright's lowest BB/K ratio since his rookie season. And as we observed earlier, Wright's ISO remained relatively constant across his career except for the aforementioned 2009 dropoff.

We keep hearing over and over about why no one should losee sleep over Wright's excessive strikeouts.

Jim McIsaac / Getty ImagesDavid Wright's strikeout binge over the past two seasons could bring the rest of his offense to its knees.

While strikeouts in an of themselves aren't necessarily the worst result in baseball (I'd take one over grounding into a double play every time), a player needs a reason to make it worthwhile. As xanthan pointed out, some hitters emphasize a specific plate approach that makes him more prone to power hitting as well as striking out. That's a valid and acceptable reason.

It's just not the reason why Wright struck out so much over the past two seasons. Something clearly changed to significantly spike his strikeouts upward. That change did not help his power stroke at all, as evidenced by the roughly constant ISO. It also considerably hurt his overall approach at the plate in terms of patience and contact.

It might be coincidence that the trend occurred during Howard Johnson's tutelage or, more accurately, Jerry Manuel's reign. Maybe we can blame that Matt Cain fastball for cementing Wright's less productive approach. Maybe Wright should step up in the batter's box a little more, or spend some more time reinventing his approach with new hitting coach Dave Hudgens.

Still, there's something frustrating in reading Szymborski describe Wright as a "finished product." Is that finished product the 4th- and 7th-place finisher in the MVP voting in 2007 and 2008, respectively, which occurred primarily from a patient approach at the plate? Or will that finished product continue to mutate into a one-dimensional slugger that loses any resemblance to his once-in-a-generation prospect roots with every strikeout? Or is yet another offensive change on the horizon?

David Wright will likely not get considerably better from a statistical standpoint than he is now. His career trajectory will not morph him into Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols anytime soon. Rather than fretting over Wright's place in the conversation about the best to ever play, I'd merely like to know if his best is yet to come.

From what we've seen from Wright so far, I still believe that the latter is possible.