David Cameron stumbles towards EU deal

David Cameron’s usually formidable spin machine got thrown off kilter just when he needed it in high gear ahead of Thursday’s possibly historic summit in Brussels on Britain’s future in Europe.

The British prime minister shuttled from Hamburg to Paris to Brussels to start the week, courting EU leaders on the remaining hot-button issues on the table: curbs on benefits for EU migrants to Britain, a London say over euro policy, and a “get-out-of-ever-closer-union-free” card for the U.K. Bad news followed Cameron everywhere, suggesting political trouble ahead back home and on the Continent.

French President François Hollande warned him at a meeting in Paris on Monday that he still had a long way to go to fine tune economic governance principles so they don’t give non-euro countries too much leverage over the single currency zone.

Leaders of the European Parliament in Brussels on Tuesday told him they’d do their best to approve the “emergency brake” on welfare benefits but couldn’t promise they wouldn’t try to fiddle with it first.

It’s all made an already complex political dynamic even more unpredictable as the main event gets underway.

Even Western EU stalwarts like Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany are now giving Cameron grief, saying they too want an emergency brake. That’s only worsened the fears of Eastern European countries that their citizens will be discriminated against inside the EU.

It’s all made an already complex political dynamic even more unpredictable as the main event gets underway.

“The whole discussion, which we always thought would be U.K.-specific, is now being hijacked by some other countries that are talking about re-modeling the whole social system,” said Tomáš Prouza, the Czech Republic’s state secretary for EU affairs.

Use your imagination

In the face of all this, Cameron is trying to stand firm — even if his demeanor during meetings in Brussels this week was described by one participant as “nervous.”

The British prime minister privately told leaders during his last round of diplomacy tours this week that he cannot make any more changes to the draft or he will be skewered by the British Euroskeptics and the press. “When it comes to drafting, Cameron will say ‘Oh no we can’t change that, it’s already in the public, it would look like I’m making concessions’,” said one top diplomatic aide involved in pre-summit negotiations.

Cameron’s visit to the European Parliament on Tuesday veered from almost surreal to farce.

The trick, according to the diplomat, has been to make subtle but substantial changes to the text to please critics while keeping it as close as possible to what was originally put on the table — an effort that requires “a lot of imagination.”

Another diplomat described the process as almost surreal: “The whole exercise, apart from one or two questions, consists of repeating ourselves, making selective tautology.”

Cameron’s visit to the European Parliament on Tuesday veered from almost surreal to farce. Cameron went hat-in-hand to meetings with European Parliament President Martin Schulz and other top political group leaders on Tuesday. He begged them to give reassurances that they would pass his migration reform proposal — the most contentious of the four reforms.

A source in the room at Cameron’s meeting with European People’s Party group chief Manfred Weber said participants were shocked to see the normally relaxed politician arrive without his usual swagger. He appeared “nervous” and closed the meeting with a warning against “dividing the West.”

Schulz told the press after the meeting there would be “no guarantees” about what the migration package will look like after it goes through the normal legislative process in the Parliament, which will likely be concluded after the U.K. holds its referendum (which will be in June if all goes according to plan this week).

The breakfast club

Another key player is European Council President Donald Tusk, who will preside over the summit and spend much of Thursday night and early Friday trying to broker a compromise between Cameron and his various critics. Tusk, who said earlier this week that the negotiations were in a “fragile” state, has been criticized by some leaders for running all of their demands by the U.K. before making any changes to the draft.

“Tusk wants the agreement of David Cameron before publishing any texts, it’s an unusual situation and it’s the first time we’re negotiating like this,” said one of the sherpas involved in the summit preparations.

Although there are three big issues to be settled on the night of the Council — including France’s eurozone governance worries, and the concerns about how the welfare restrictions will be applied — three sherpas told POLITICO Wednesday that they were confident leaders would reach an agreement on the text before the weekend.

“It’s clear the first round will not be enough,” one of the sherpas said of the summit talks. But by Friday morning, the source added, there was every expectation among the key players that leaders be sharing a “British breakfast.”

“The aim is try to conclude at this European Council,” a sherpa said. “But anything is possible.”

Ivan Rogers, the U.K.’s permanent representative to the EU, said Wednesday evening that if there is no deal this week there will not be a referendum in June.

Late Wednesday afternoon, a U.K spokesman said: “We’re focused on getting a deal this week, but as we’ve said repeatedly, we won’t rush – it has to be the right deal.”

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flemming

If Cameron would be reasonable, he would make adjustments. For instance could the UK transfer the welfare and benefits a polish worker accrues during his work into the Polish welfare system. That way Middle European citizens would not be discriminated against in that the British state deducts their welfare payments and does not give them anything in return. If those payments would be transferred to Poland for those four years that would be a fairer option. Well after all it was not Cameron who has opnened this quagmire.

Posted on 2/18/16 | 10:09 AM CET

Ian

For a complete record from the government and our international community, you can serve a civil subpoena duces tecum upon a court of justice in accordance with the instructions provided on my facebook profile, starting at the top of the wall and working through each post and reply. Help hold the politicians accountable with discovery and make some money as reparations for civil violations against you and your communities: http://www.facebook.com/ileipper

Posted on 2/18/16 | 6:26 PM CET

Maria Valentina Umer

David Cameron is no leader, neither of his own country nor — God forbid- in the EU. He is an Eton Boy, just like Boris Jonhson.

Posted on 7/30/16 | 6:41 PM CET

Maria Valentina Umer

Ya! In English polilitics there is nothing else as spin. Blair was the master of that! And he went on to become “consultant`´ to Azerbaizain´s President, one of the most corrupt leaders in the world.
English politics and their politicians continue to be dominated by opportunistic crooks.
English citiztens don´t need to complain about the EU! They should start with their own opportunists, feckless pseudo-politicians. Start with Tony Blair (the one who created the war in Irak) , and end with David Cameron. And don´t forget to analyse Thatcher´s move to do away with all industrial activity and jobs in the old Britain.