Strayhorn touts poll

Comptroller and independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn is promoting a new poll that shows Gov. Rick Perry’s approval rating had dropped amid the passage of a tax increase to pay for property tax reductions.

The problem with the Survey USA poll, done for television stations in Austin and San Antonio, is that it favors Democrats.

The poll, conducted May 12-14, showed Perry’s disapproval rating jumping from 45 percent last month to 54 percent this month, while his approval rating dropped from 47 percent to 40 percent.

“Texas voters see through his sping and know that all he has done is sign the largest tax increase in Texas history,” said Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders.

However, the sample of people who responded to the poll did not match historic voting trends for Texas over the past decade. Republicans have tended to have a base vote of about 42 percent, and Democrats have had a base vote of about 35 percent.

The respondents in the Survey USA were 35 percent Republican and 41 percent Democrat., and the Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved of Perry. The April survey had a poll sample far closer to the Texas electorate: 38 percent GOP, 31 percent Democrat and 30 percent independent.

The bad news for Perry in the Survey USA polls is that he is not doing well among self-identified independents, who tend to be the swing voters in Texas. In the May survey, 58 percent of the independents disapproved of Perry. In April, 53 percent disapproved.

The other piece of bad news is that his support among Republicans is slipping. He dropped from 68 percent approval among Republicans in April to 54 percent in May. If the governor’s base keeps eroding at that rate, it may not matter whether the poll sample tilts to favor Democrats.