Down To Earth

Editorial. Sunita Narain.
I.VI.XV

Promise me the
monsoon

By Sunita
Narain

Why this
weird weather? Why have western
disturbances—the extra-tropical storms that
originate in the Mediterranean and Atlantic
seas—been lashing us again and again, with
devastating impacts on agriculture? Is this
normal? Or has weird weather become the new
definition of normal?

The India Meteorological
Department says the severe and unseasonal rain
this year has been because of the confluence of
western disturbances with the easterlies from the
Bay of Bengal which is normal. But what they
cannot explain is why the frequency of the western
disturbances has increased and why the impact of
this confluence is being felt all the way up to
central India which is unusual and definitely not
normal.

Indian scientists are
extremely cautious about using the CC - climate
change— word. But it is now widely
recognised that warming is making the
world’s weather more unstable and extreme.
How much is the question. Scientists would agree
on saying that although no single extreme weather
event could be attributed to climate change, the
increased frequency and intensity of such events
is definitely because of human-made climate
change. Now, this science is becoming more exact.
A recent paper published in Nature Climate Change
finds that the observed average global warming of
0.85°C is responsible for 75 per cent of the
daily heat extremes and 18 per cent of the
precipitation extremes. More worrying is the
conclusion that as the temperature increases to
2°C—which is likely, given the lack of
global effort in cutting greenhouse gas
emissions—40 per cent of the rainfall
extremes will be linked to human-made climate
change.

This is when we know
that the subcontinent’s weather pattern and,
in particular, the monsoon is not only this
country’s real finance minister, but truly
the most globalised Indian, with connections from
all across the globe. It is deeply connected to
ocean currents and winds from the Pacific, the
Arctic and the neighbouring Tibetan Plateau. The
monsoon is also the most understudied and least
understood of all weather phenomena. Now climate
change is making it even more difficult to
read.

Many theories point to
changes now discernible. R Krishnan of the
Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology says pronounced warming over the
Tibetan Plateau has increased the instability of
Westerlies. This would explain the increased
variability of western disturbances. Another
theory links these disturbances to the growing
instability of the jet stream - strong winds that
blow from west to east and separate the cold
arctic mass from warm sub-tropical air. This is
linked to the warming of the
Arctic.

What is most worrisome,
indeed frightening, is the prospect that climate
change could have long-term impact on the monsoon.
We know that the monsoon—this huge movement
of water from over the oceans to the Indian
landmass—happens because of the temperature
difference between the ocean and the land. The
land is warmer and the ocean cooler. Now there is
some research to show that this contrast could be
weakening. The Indian landmass is showing signs of
suppressed warming—it is not clear
why—and the Indian Ocean is showing signs of
enhanced warming. If this continues then the land
would not pull water-laden winds from the oceans
as strongly as before. The Indian monsoon would be
weaker. But this is also combined with the fact
that warming climate means that the atmosphere can
hold more moisture and this would mean more
extreme rain. So, it is not clear if it will rain
less or more.

All this points to
catastrophic changes in the future. One thing is
clear: we cannot continue to deny these long-term
changes, which will have potentially catastrophic
impacts on our economy and agriculture. It is
because we refuse to accept (at least publicly)
that anything strange is afoot that we are not
putting into place systems that would improve our
ability to cope with variable and extreme
weather.

All this is also linked
to the inconvenient fact that scientists who study
the weather or the monsoon are treated with
contempt or neglect in the establishment of
science. Just think if you can even name a monsoon
scientist. Just think if government has ever
recognised a monsoon scientist. You will find that
the answer is no. Instead what will spring to your
mind when you think of Indian science are the
macho scientists who have taken us to space or
worked on nuclear science. All this may be
important but it is time we recognised that the
icons of today’s science have to be
different. Those who make us see the future are
those who will make us understand the monsoon.
This is what will determine our
survival.