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Now that the rabble has been evicted, the message to Tony Abbott and his team is simple: don't get ahead of yourselves. You have to earn the people's trust.

Yes, voters wanted to get rid of the carbon tax, but they had - and have - little confidence that Abbott's ''direct action'' is the answer on climate change.

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Twelve per cent support for a top-order policy that was taken to the last two elections is an indictment of the Coalition's ability to sell a positive message.

Yes, the electorate wanted to stop the boats, but this poll suggests voters are less than impressed by the way in which ''Major'' Morrison is setting out to achieve this end.

Traditionally, it takes a long time for defeated governments to get their nose back in front in the polls.

An analysis of elections since 1972 by pollster John Stirton shows it has taken anything from 12 months (in 1972) to 2½ years (in 2007) for an opposition to secure a two-party preferred lead after a change in government.

That Labor has done so within a couple of months is remarkable - and should invite self-examination on both sides of politics.

It is also the case that newly elected prime ministers generally have approval ratings of more than 50 per cent and disapproval ratings in the 20s or 30s.

Abbott is the exception and still has almost as many detractors as admirers, with 47 per cent approving and 46 per cent disapproving.

Consider this.

It took Kevin Rudd 2½ years for his disapproval to hit 49 per cent; Julia Gillard nine months to hit 47 per cent; John Howard 18 months to hit 46 per cent; Paul Keating three months to hit 45 per cent (though Labor had been in power for four terms at that stage); Bob Hawke almost three years to hit 48 per cent; Malcolm Fraser 12 months to hit 47 per cent; and Gough Whitlam 11 months to hit 46 per cent.

Abbott was an unpopular leader when the Coalition was riding high in the polls and his September victory and conduct since then do not appear to have substantially changed perceptions.

He has largely been ascendant in the Parliament, but his handling of the revelations that Australia tried to listen in on the phones of Indonesian friends and the President's wife turned a difficult issue into a full-blown crisis.

Now he has to find a way out, fast.

Hopefully, the letter he sent to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono provides the foundation for one. Hopefully, too, a review of intelligence-gathering is under way - one that measures the potential benefits of spying on declared friends against the fallout if this spying is revealed.

Bill Shorten has made a positive but cautious start as Labor leader, but should not be too buoyed by these numbers.

Rather than an emphatic endorsement of his (and Labor's) performance since the September election, voters are simply glad that Gillard and Rudd have departed the stage - and seem willing to give Shorten a clean slate.

Indeed, by confirming that the election was overwhelmingly a rejection of Labor, the poll results reflect poorly on all those who were party to the leadership turmoil that engulfed the party in mid-2010.

If Labor fails to learn the basic lesson that disunity is death, this bounce will be temporary and meaningless.