Lions Gab: 5 players they shouldn't draft with No. 5 pick

Apr. 3, 2013

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Written by

Anthony Kuehn

Detroit Free Press Special Writer

Alabama head coach Nick Saban high fives Alabama's defensive back Dee Milliner (28) during the second half of the BCS National Championship college football game against Notre Dame, Monday, Jan. 7, 2013, in Miami. / David J. Phillip/AP

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Anthony Kuehn is the editor of the Detroit Lions blog Lions Gab. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers. Get in touch with Anthony at lionsgab@gmail.com or on Twitter @lionsgab.

This week I am going to look at six players the Detroit Lions should not draft with the 5th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The key part of that for some of these prospects is ď5th overall pick,Ē one of the players would be a great pick if the Lions were able to trade down out of the top 10. Next week, I will take a look at the players I think the Lions should consider with the 5th pick.

Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones: Jarvis Jones was an incredibly productive player for an SEC powerhouse for two years. He was a game changer not only capable of making splash plays, but making them in big moments in the game. Jones recorded 91 solo tackles, 64 assisted tackles, 28 sacks, 9 forced fumbles and one interception in his two year career at Georgia. Based off his production at Georgia, he is one of the top playmakers in the draft, but itís not his time at Georgia that Iím interested in.

Jones ended up in Athens, Georgia after originally committing to USC and playing his freshman season in Los Angeles. The Trojansí medical staff discovered spinal stenosis in Jonesí neck, which is a narrowing of the spinal column. This same condition led to the premature retirement of Pro Bowlers Marcus McNeill, Chris Samuels as well as Hall of Famer Michael Irvin. Obviously the Georgia medical staff wasnít as concerned with the condition as the USC staff, but several NFL team doctors were reportedly concerned enough that Jones has been removed from several teamsí draft boards.

Martin Mayhew has gambled on a few players with preexisting injury concerns and has lost on almost all of them. If Jones was available in the third round and the Lions took him, Iíd be fine with that level of risk vs. reward. But no matter how many doctors say he is fine, the risk vs. reward at the top of the draft is tilted far more heavily towards risk.

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Alabama CB Dee Milliner: Iím going to get lampooned on this one no matter what I say, but there is a lot of logic going into my stance on this. First, the NFL rules favor the offense so heavily that true shutdown cornerbacks donít really exist anymore.

The only corner that is currently considered one has been on the trade market for two months and has drawn little to no interest.

If cornerbacks were so important to winning and losing games, why are the Jets so willing to part with Darrelle Revis? Revis is coming off of an ACL injury which may concern some teams, but the recovery rate for ACL injuries is higher than it ever has been and he tore his early enough in the season that his availability for training camp isnít in question.

Secondly, the free agent market was flooded with cornerbacks this offseason and not one got a large contract. There are two reasons that this is a telling fact. If cornerbacks are so valuable, why are teams willingly letting them go? In addition, why arenít any teams paying top dollar for free agent cornerbacks? That is the main reason the Jets want to unload Revis, his contract demands are far greater than the team is willing to spend on a cornerback, even though he is the best in the league at his position. What other positions have seen the top player in the prime of their career be dangled in trade proposals because they arenít worth paying? Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Joe Thomas, J.J. Watt and Von Miller are near or at the top of their respective position groups and all are in or nearing their prime. Could you conceive a scenario where any of those players were available for just first and third round picks?

Third, the premium position in the Lionsí secondary is not the cornerback position, but the safety position. The Lions were never at full strength at safety the last two years and having a severe drop off behind Louis Delmas and Amari Spievey killed the pass defense more than the cornerbacks did. The Lions went 4-0 to close out the 2010 season with street free agents starting at cornerback, but Delmas and Spievey were healthy and playing well. If the Lions are going to address the secondary, it should be at safety rather than corner.

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Lastly, the Lions spent three draft picks on cornerbacks last season. While none of them are guaranteed to be starting caliber players, drafting Milliner at five basically relegates them all to the bench. I donít think Milliner is such an elite prospect that it justifies giving up on three picks from a year ago.

G Chance Warmack: I really like Warmack as a prospect, but I do not like his fit on the Lionsí line. Warmack is an elite in-line blocker that does well in pass protection and run blocking. He played in a pro style offense in a big time conference and helped pave the way for a couple of high draft picks at running back. Warmack is not an elite prospect when it comes to getting out in space and blocking at the second level.

When Jahvid Best was still healthy, the Lions used a lot of movement up front to get him into the open field and since that isnít his strong suit I see Jonathan Cooper as a better fit. I donít think either guard is in play at five, they would only be potential picks if the Lions can trade down.

OLB Barkevious Mingo: I havenít seen as many people mentioning Mingo to the Lions as I did a few weeks back, but I thought Iíd still address him. Mingo, on pure talent alone, grades out as a top 10 pick. He is an explosive and fluid athlete that has performed at a high level in a strong conference and could definitely bolster the pass rush. The big question marks on Mingo are his functional strength and his work ethic.

After a stellar 2011 season Mingo looked to be one of the top prospects if he chose to declare for the draft after his junior season. Mingo saw a big drop off in performance in 2012 and many evaluators attribute it to a poor work ethic. While, Mingo does offer a lot of potential as a pass rusher, he is a huge liability against the run. That complicates matters for his fit with the Lions. An outside linebacker that can only rush the passer is easier to hide in a 3-4 defense than a 4-3, especially in the Wide 9 alignment. Since

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Mingo is too small to play defensive end, I just donít see how he fits on the team even if scouts determine his work ethic issues are correctable.

DTs Sharrif Floyd/Star Lotulelei: Floyd and Lotulelei could very well be on the board when the Lions pick at five and a strong case could be made for either of them being the best player available. The Lions drafted Nick Fairley when they already had Ndamukong Suh, Sammie Hill and Corey Williams in the fold. Now that the defensive tackle ranks are depleted there could be a case for taking either player.

The Lions like to rotate their lineman frequently and in some cases the starters are only getting about 60% of the snaps. That makes your ďbackupĒ lineman more of a second wave of starters than true backups. Taking a third defensive tackle with the fifth pick wouldnít be as outrageous as some would think and could definitely be a possibility. But it is definitely a possibility the Lions should not consider seriously.

I really think the only way either tackle would be in play is if the Lions have concerns with Fairley staying healthy or out of trouble. Or perhaps if the Lions feel there is a good chance they will not be able to afford Suh in two years. The Lions canít trade Suh this year unless he agrees to completely redo his contract, so picking one of the two tackles would be a clear indicator that Suh isnít in the teamís long term plans.

The Lions are fortunate that their two biggest needs, offensive tackle and defensive end; match up with the presumed best players that will be available to them with the fifth pick. Unfortunately, this draft is not as top heavy as previous years where there were a handful of almost guaranteed superstars. There are talented players at the top of the draft; they just have a few more question marks than most years. The better you understand those question marks, the easier it is to understand why the Lions take or pass on certain players.