Tuesday, January 31, 2017

The Islamic State continued harassing actions, while trying
to maintain its control over west Mosul. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)
imposed a curfew
on the neighborhoods in east Mosul along the Tigris River because of constant
shelling by IS. During the day mortars and a drone attack took the lives of
three people and wounded another 16. The group reportedly
banned its members from leaving Mosul for Syria and imposed a new monthly tax
on cab drivers to raise money. It also carried out an assault
in the Tal Afar district. The group is on its heels, but it is still putting up
a fight. The question is whether it will go down to the last man in west Mosul
or will it be like the east with a tough initial defense that when penetrated
will quickly collapse.

Monday, January 30, 2017

The Iraqi Forces (ISF) and Hashd were both preparing for the
next phase of the Mosul campaign. The Joint Operations Command announced that Federal Police
units were moving into central Mosul to prepare to cross the Tigris and attack the
west. The Diyala battalion of the Golden Division arrived
in the city, and the 9th Division was setting up its heavy weapons. The
Hashd continued
to talk about how important the 6th phase of their operations will
be, which includes participating in the new assault on Mosul. The Al Abbas
Division of the Hashd is supposed to take part, but it’s not clear in what
capacity. The ISF are still resting and re-supplying after three months of fighting.
In a few more days they will likely go back into action. The Hashd in Tal Afar
district have been holding ground since November. As more time has passed, and
they have less to do they have been issuing more boisterous propaganda
releases. Baghdad changed its policy and decided that they will be allowed to
take the town, despite a deal with Turkey, because it doesn’t have any army of
police units to spare because of Mosul. That means they will be back in action
soon.

Iran is now
concentrating upon the war in Syria, but from 2014-15 Iraq was its major focus.
When the Islamic State swept through Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Kirkuk provinces
in the summer of 2014, Tehran was the first to offer assistance to the Iraqi
government. Military support was only part of Iran’s program however. It also
launched a sophisticated propaganda campaign to promote itself as the savior of
Iraq. This was carried out on social media mostly via Facebook, Twitter, and
other platforms. At the center of this effort was Iranian Revolutionary Guards
Quds Force commander General Qasim Suleimani. He appeared on all the major
battlefronts in Iraq again and again on the Internet. The success of this
campaign was shown in a survey done of pilgrims to the Shiite shrine in
Karbala.

Gen. Suleimani seen
visiting the Tirkit front in 2015 (Al Alam)

A group of three
researchers working for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology interviewed 1,668 Iranians and 2,410 Iraqis during Arabaeen in Karbala in 2015. Those
questioned overwhelmingly supported Iran’s policies in the Middle East. When asked what motivated Iran in
the region the most popular response for Iraqis, 40.68%, was to protect Shiite
communities. That compared to 27.33% of Iranians selecting that choice. That
showed how effective Iran’s propaganda campaign was within Iraq. Iraqis felt
like Tehran was helping them more than Iranians themselves. This was of course
in the middle of the war with the Islamic State, Iraqis were still feeling
vulnerable, and when Iran was pumping up its role in Iraq far above the U.S.
led Coalition, which preferred having the Iraqis claim responsibility for their
victories. Other factors shaping the response would be the negative view most
of those interviewed had of America, as well as religious Shiites being more
open to Iran’s role then others. In contrast, a plurality of Iranians, 39.28%
believed that national security was the main driver of Tehran’s foreign policy.

January 28 was the fourth day with a pause in operations in
the Mosul campaign. The biggest news however didn’t come from the battlefield,
but on the political front. That came from the Joint Operations command that announced
an arrest warrant for ex-Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi. Nujafi already had a
warrant out for him from October for his collaboration with Turkey. Previously,
his unit the Hashd al-Watani also known as the Ninewa Guards worked with the 16th
Division and helped free nine villages and neighborhoods on the northern front,
and was securing the Hadbaa neighborhood. Given that collaboration, the new
warrant had to have come from political opponents. For example, one
parliamentarian from Ninewa Ahmed al-Jabouri complained that turning
over parts of Mosul to the Hashd al-Watani was a betrayal. Other politicians
made similar statements the day before. Nujafi is extremely unpopular in
Baghdad due to his alliance with Turkey and Kurdish President Massoud Barzani,
and has rivals within Ninewa as well. Like the first warrant however, this new
one is unlikely to be carried out as Nujafi can go back to Irbil where he has
been based, and where orders from the central government are rarely carried
out.

Saturday, January 28, 2017

The Islamic State continued
to make defensive preparations in west Mosul and to carry out harassing
attacks. In the middle of the night IS fighters launched a river assault on two
neighborhoods in east Mosul. The army and Rapid Reaction forces turned them
back. The insurgents were still forcing people out of their houses along the
Tigris River to use them as fighting positions. Out in the Tal Afar district to
the west the militants also attacked the Hashd in Tal Ikssiba. Iraqi and U.S.
officials claim that IS is a broken force, but they are still putting up a
fight for now.

Friday, January 27, 2017

January 26 was the second day of the pause in operations
between taking east Mosul and attacking the west. That didn’t mean the Iraqi
Forces (ISF) were out of action. The 9th Division announced it took Shreikhan.
This is a town north of the city, which was first declared freed on January
24. Inside the city the Federal Police were clearing areas of
explosives. The ISF were also looking
for potential suicide bombers. U.S. Colonel John Dorrian warned of Islamic
State sleeper cells hiding amongst the population that could later carry out
attacks. Just last week a suicide bomber was gunned down approaching a
checkpoint. With so many people staying within Mosul there was no way to screen
them, which means there are likely IS members still there. The civilian
population has been providing intelligence to the ISF to hunt down these
members, but they will remain a threat.

There are not enough ISF available to secure the city while
the combat forces move onto the other half of the city. That means the
government has to call on others. A Shabak Hashd Brigade is within the city. So
is ex-Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi’s Hashd
al-Watani, also known as the Ninewa Guards. They fought alongside the 16th
Division in northeast Mosul, and now have been given some areas of the city to
hold. This is a boost for Nujafi is who attempting to rebuild his base.

Retired General Alsodani Ismael wrote
a piece on how the first half of the battle went down. The original plan was
for the ISF to reach Mosul from the north, east, and south at the same time to
spread out the Islamic State defenders. Instead the north and south stalled and
the Golden Division reached the east very early on. Two of the army divisions
in the north were brand new and had never seen combat before. Some of the
commanders were unfit and inexperienced as well. He called for special
operations raids, attacking on multiple fronts, and maneuvering in the next
phase. The Golden Division were carrying out targeted attacks to eliminate IS
commanders. The ISF is pushing a quick assault on the west, which probably
involves a frontal assault across the Tigris. They could also move forces to
the south and attack from there. The problems the Iraqi forces have in
coordinating multiple fronts was exposed in the initial attack upon the city,
and they may not have had time to improve. On the last point, the ISF was
eventually able to attack across three broad fronts in east Mosul, which
eventually connected together. Whether the units are up for a more dynamic plan
is yet to be seen. Some Iraqi commanders have said the west Mosul fight will be
completely different from the east.

The fate of Tal Afar in the west is becoming clearer. Early
on in the campaign the Hashd reached the town, which was then to be taken by
the ISF. This was in part due to strenuous objections by Turkey claiming that
the Hashd would commit abuses. Recently National Security Advisers Falah Fayad
said the Hashd could enter Tal Afar. General Abdul Yarallah added to that by
saying that the Hashd supported by the Iraqi Air Force would liberate the town.
That change may be due to a lack of army and police forces to take it, while
assaulting Mosul at the same time. This will be a huge victory for the Hashd.
They have talked about protecting the Shiite Turkmen in the area. The Iranian
linked units would also like a presence there because it is a gateway to Syria.
That would allow Tehran to move men and material straight across from Iran
through Iraq to Syria. If that happened it would be highly ironic. Tal Afar
used to be the route Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Assad government ferried in
foreign fighters into Iraq to destabilize the country. Now Iran wants to use it
to prop up the Syrian regime.

Over the last seven days the number of displaced (IDPs) in
Ninewa has decreased, but it is still the highest amount since the Mosul
campaign began. According
to the International Organization for Migration, there were 159,252 IDPs
registered with the government and aid groups on January 20. That went up to a
high of 161,238 on January 23, but then after that went down each day to
159,006 on January 26. That compared to 116,292 displaced at the end of
December. In 28 days there has been an increase in 42,714 IDPs. With the attack
on the other half of Mosul coming up there will be another wave of people
fleeing the fighting.

Each day more people are going back to their homes, and the
rebuilding has begun. Since October 16 roughly 28,980 people have returned, and
that figure is going up. Bas News was in Tel
Keif, which was recently liberated. Almost 3,000 people were back, shops were
re-opening, and the city council wanted to start projects to restore power and
water. In Mosul, the Ninewa council held a meeting
with the mayor to assess damage to the city. It opened offices in three
neighborhoods to try to restore services and governance. Parliament’s human
rights committee called
on Prime Minister Haider Abadi to start paying salaries again to people in the
liberated areas. Students
from Mosul University are pushing for the campus to be repaired and re-opened. Slowly
but surely the populace and authorities are trying to get Mosul and the
surrounding area back up and running. This appears to be happening much faster
than in other cities.

Finally, there were new casualty figures. Based upon reading
over 40 papers a day and releases by aid agencies a total of 5,404 deaths have
been counted and 16,983 wounded from October 17, 2016 to January 21, 2017. The
vast majority of those are civilians with 4,741 killed and 14,842 injured. The
Islamic State has been accused of executing 2,798 people. Coalition air strikes
have been blamed for another 561 fatalities and 653 wounded. The fighting
caused the rest.

Casualties From The
Mosul Campaign 10/17/16-1/21/17

5,404 killed

4,741 killed

487 ISF

102 Hashd

70 Peshmerga

2 Kurd CT

1 US Sailor

1 Hasdh al-Watani

16,983 Wounded

14,842 Civilians

1,824 ISF

253 Peshmerga

59 Hashd

5 Hashd al-Watani

SOURCES

AIN, “A parliamentary committee calling for the government
to pay salaries in the left bank of Mosul,” 1/26/17

In the first three weeks of January the Mosul campaign was
the main driver of violence and casualties in Iraq. From January 1-21 there
were 488 incidents reported in the press. Of those, 236 were in Ninewa, or 48%
of the total. Those incidents led to 1,398 deaths and 3,654 wounded. 950 of the
fatalities, 67%, and 2,919 of the injured, 79%, were from the Battle for Mosul.
Baghdad used to be the center of attacks in the country, but those have been
cut in half since Mosul started. In September 2016 there were an average of
10.8 incidents per day, which dropped to 4.7 by December. That’s slightly up to
5.8 per day in the first twenty-one days of January.

On January
5, a new, but short-lived campaign in west Anbar was launched. The stated
goal was to liberate the last towns in the province along the Syrian border. Al
Mada quickly pointed out that this was not all that it was cut out to be as
Prime Minister Haider Abadi didn’t officially announce it. It also noted that
the United States had opposed previous operations because it didn’t want to
interfere with the Mosul campaign. In November for example, Baghdad wanted to
push on western Anbar, but the Americans intervened. The campaign only lasted
around two weeks. A tribal leader told Al
Mada, that it would not restart until Mosul was freed. In total around 11
villages were taken, and the Islamic State did not put up much of a fight for
them.

While incidents have gone down in Baghdad, mass casualty
bombings are up. When the government launched the Mosul operation in October,
the Islamic State countered with a car bomb campaign in the capital. In
September there were 2 successful vehicle borne improvised explosive devices
(VBIEDs) in the capital with 2 more dismantled or destroyed. In October that
went up to 4 bombings, then 7 in November, 9 in December, and then 13 so far in
the first three weeks of January. A member of the Baghdad security committee accused
the security forces of taking bribes from IS to allow their bombers through
checkpoints. This has been true for years. This also coincided with the
government deciding to take
down concrete barriers and checkpoints in sections of the capital at the
end of December. Baghdad Governor Ali al-Tamimi promised surveillance cameras
and other forms of electronic security measures, but that has not materialized.
Given the inability of checkpoints to stop previous bombings it’s unclear
whether their removal really had any effect. IS has also changed its tactics.
It is reportedly moving from the residential areas to the suburbs and moving
assets around to try to prevent them from being discovered.

Car Bombs In Baghdad January 2016-January 21, 2017

Month

Car Bombs

Jan 2016

3

Feb

1

Mar

0

Apr

8

May

13

Jun

1

Jul

4

Aug

3

Sep

2

Oct

4

Nov

7

Dec

9

Jan 1-21, 2017

13

Diyala is one of the provinces where IS is re-organizing and
ramping up its operations. From January 1-21 there have been 33 incidents for
an average of 1.5 per day. In October 2016 there were 1.4 incidents per day,
but that went down to 0.9 in November and 0.8 in December. These have included
temporary seizing of towns, attacks on checkpoints, suicide bombings, and car
bombs. Before most of the attacks were small shootings and IEDs with regular
mass casualty bombings. Now Diyala is seeing large numbers of IS fighters in bigger
operations. A Diyala parliamentarian from the Supreme Council called
on the prime minister to open an investigation into the security failures, and
blamed commanders for negligence. Badr head Hadi Ameri is in charge of security
in the province with the Iraqi forces in a support role to his Hashd units.

In Kirkuk the Islamic State has one of its last strongholds
in Hawija. The provincial government is increasingly calling on Abadi to free
the area, but with Mosul going on that’s not going to happen right now. Hawija
is turning out to be a major source of instability not only in Kirkuk but
neighboring governorates as well. Cells from Hawija have been blamed for
carrying out attacks in Salahaddin for example. There are constant reports of
executions within the district, and displaced people being killed trying to
escape.

Along with Diyala, Salahaddin is the other province seeing
an uptick in insurgent activity. In the first three weeks of January there was
an average of 1.6 incidents per day, the highest amount since June 2016 when
there were 1.7. Just like in Diyala IS has moved from small hit and run and IED
incidents to larger, more organized operations. On January 2, 9 suicide bombers
attacked Samarra and were able to seize two police stations before being
expelled and killed. Members of the provincial council have talked
about IS cells operating in various areas. Also like Diyala, most of the
security duties in Salahaddin are under the control of the Hashd. This has
caused problems. The head of the Salahaddin council for example talked about
too many different security forces in Samarra with overlapping duties and a
lack of cooperation that has led to gaps, which have been exploited by the
Islamic State.

Violence In Iraq By Month 2016-2017

Month

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

Jan

723

2,418

1,986

Feb

657

1,685

1,724

Mar

683

1,685

2,095

1st Qtr Daily

Avg/91

22.6

63.6

63.7

Apr

630

1,840

1,904

May

675

1,644

2,484

Jun

631

2,111

6,455

2nd Qtr Daily

Avg/91

21.2

61.4

119.1

Jul

531

1,329

1,708

Aug

574

1,263

1,376

Sep

573

1,203

1,602

3rd Qtr Daily

Avg/92

18.2

41.2

50.9

Oct

589

2,965

2,376

Nov

599

4,389

3,972

Dec

583

1,559

11,681

4th Qtr Daily

Avg/92

19.2

96.8

195.6

Jan 1-7

185

509

1,346

Jan 8-14

166

306

1,044

Jan 15-21

137

583

1,264

Violence In Iraq, Jan 1-7, 2017

Security Incidents

185

Dead

509

21 Sahwa

38 Hashd

71 ISF

379 Civilians

Wounded

1,346

4 Hashd

45 ISF

1,282 Civilians

Shootings

48

Bombs

76

Car Bombs

19

Suicide Bombers

18

Car Bombs Destroyed

115

Suicide Bombers Killed

38

Anbar

10 Incidents

15 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3
Hashd, 10 ISF

26 Wounded: 12 ISF, 14 Civilians

3 Shootings

1 IED

3 Suicide Bombers

1 Rockets

1 Suicide Bomber Arrested

3 Suicide Car Bombers
Arrested

Baghdad

46 Incidents

126 Killed: 2 Hashd, 7 ISF,
117 Civilians

221 Wounded: 4 Hashd, 217
Civilians

4 Shootings

31 IEDs

1 Sticky Bombs

2 Suicide Car Bombs

6 Car Bombs

1 Mortar

Diyala

14 Incidents

33 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3
ISF, 12 Hashd, 16 Sahwa

15 Wounded: 3 ISF, 12 Hashd

10 Shootings

1 IED

Kirkuk

7 Incidents

2 Killed: 2 Civilians

1 Wounded: 1 Civilian

2 Shootings

1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Najaf

1 Incident

10 Killed: 3 Civilians, 7
ISF

15 Wounded: 15 Civilians

1 Shooting

2 Suicide Bombers

1 Suicide Car Bomb

1 Suicide Car Bomb

Ninewa

90 Incidents

282 Killed: 15 ISF, 16
Hashd, 251 Civilians

1,028 Wounded: 12 ISF,
1,016 Civilians

16 Shootings

9 IEDs

3 Suicide Bombers

3 Suicide Car Bombs

7 Car Bombs

10 Mortars

3 Rockets

13 Suicide Bombers killed

10 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed

93 Car Bombs Destoryed

Salahaddin

16 Incidents

45 Killed: 2 Civilians, 5
Sahwa, 5 Hashd, 29 ISF

40 Wounded: 19 Civilians,
21 ISF

11 Shootings

2 IEDs

4 Suicide Bombers

1 Mortar

10 Suicide Bombers killed

5 Car Bombs Destroyed

Sulaymaniya

1 Incident

1 Grenade

Violence In Iraq, Jan 8-14, 2017

Security Incidents

166

Dead

306

2 PAK

9 Hashd

21 ISF

274 Civilians

Wounded

1,044

3 Peshmerga

3 PAK

5 Hashd

14 ISF

1,019 Civilians

Shootings

40

Bombs

68

Car Bombs

10

Suicide Bombers

5

Car Bombs Destroyed

97

Suicide Bombers Killed

20

Anbar

13 Incidents

7 Killed: 7 ISF

6 Wounded: 6 ISF

5 Shootings

1 Car Bomb

16 Suicide Bombers Killed

2 Suicide Car Bombers
Arrested

7 Car Bombs Destroyed

Babil

3 Incidents

2 Killed: 1 Civilian, 1
Hashd

1 Shooting

Baghdad

45 Incidents

62 Killed: 2 ISF, 60
Civilians

206 Wounded: 2 ISF, 204
Civilians

7 Shootings

33 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

2 Suicide Bombers

1 Suicide Car Bombs

3 Car Bombs

Basra

1 incident

1 IED

Diyala

11 Incidents

18 Killed: 3 Civilians, 4
Hashd, 11 ISF

12 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 4
Civilians, 6 ISF

5 Shootings

11 IEDs

1 Car Bomb

1 Suicide Car Bomb
Destroyed

5 Car Bombs Destroyed

Kirkuk

5 Incidents

10 Killed: 2 PAK, 8
Civilians

3 Wounded: 3 PAK

1 IED

Ninewa

78 Incidents

187 Killed: 4 Hashd, 183
Civilians

811 Wounded: 811 Civilians

18 Shootings

4 IEDs

2 Suicide Bombers

4 Car Bombs

4 Mortars

3 Rockets

5 Suicide Bombers Killed

81 Car Bombs Destroyed

Salahaddin

9 Incidents

20 Killed: 1 ISF, 19
Civilians

6 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 3
Peshmerga

4 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Suicide Bomber Killed

Wasit

1 Incident

1 Car Bomb Dismantled

Violence In Iraq, Jan 15-21, 2017

Security Incidents

137

Dead

583

6 Hashd

249 ISF

328 Civilians

Wounded

1,264

13 Hashd

230 Civilians

1,021 ISF

Shootings

29

Bombs

41

Car Bombs

7

Suicide Bombers

5

Car Bombs Destroyed

61

Suicide Bombers Killed

11

Anbar

10 Incidents

11 Killed: 5 Civilians, 6
ISF

37 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 38 Civilians

2 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

2 Rockets

1 Suicide Bomber Killed

Babil

1 Incident

Baghdad

32 Incidents

27 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Hashd,
23 Civilians

87 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 85
Civilians

6 Shootings

20 IEDs

2 Sticky Bombs

1 Car Bomb

1 Suicide Bomber Killed

Basra

2 Incidents

1 Killed: 1 Civilian

2 Shootings

Diyala

8 Incidents

22 Killed: 2 Civilians, 20
ISF

8 Wounded: 8 ISF

5 Shootings

1 Suicide Bomber

1 Suicide Car Bomb

Dohuk

1 Incident

Kirkuk

6 Incidents

17 Killed: 17 Civilians

22 Wounded: 22 Civilians

2 Shootings

2 IEDs

Ninewa

68 Incidents

481 Killed: 210 ISF, 271
Civilians

1,080 Wounded: 80
Civilians, 1,000 ISF

6 Shootings

2 IEDs

1 Suicide Bomber

1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb

1 Suicide Car Bomb

4 Car Bombs

1 Rockets

12 Mortars

3 Grenades

9 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed

52 Car Bombs Destroyed

Salahaddin

9 Incidents

24 Killed: 4 Hashd, 9
Civilians, 11 ISF

30 Wounded: 8 Civilians, 9
Hashd, 13 ISF

6 Shootings

1 IED

1 Mine

SOURCES

AIN, “Deputy from Diyala demanding Abadi open an
investigation into the causes of the failure of security plans in the
province,” 1/20/17

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com