Succession speculation as North Korea parliament meets

(AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)In this photo taken Friday, Oct. 8, 2010, an unidentified former North Korean defector holds up a placard showing photos of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, center, his late father Kim Il Sung, left, and his youngest son Kim Jong Un, during a rally against the North's succession in Seoul, South Korea. North Korean legislators are said to be held in Pyongyang on Thursday, April 7, 2011, amid speculation that leader Kim Jong Il will formally appoint his son to a post that would make him the nation's second most powerful man. The letters on a banner read "We denounce the family's succession through three generations."

By HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean legislators gathered in Pyongyang on Thursday amid speculation that leader Kim Jong Il may appoint his son to a post that would make him the nation's second most powerful man.

As the Supreme People's Assembly convenes a spring session, attention is focused on whether Kim Jong Un will be elected to the National Defense Commission — a move that would further solidify the young man's standing as North Korea's next leader.

Delegates from around the country began arriving earlier in the week for the session, laying bouquets Wednesday at a statue of Kim Jong Il's mother, Kim Jong Suk, according to North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.

The parliamentary meeting is North Korea's first major national meeting since Kim Jong Un made his political debut in September by taking on a key leadership post in the ruling Workers' Party. Since then, he has appeared regularly at Kim Jong Il's side, his father's clear choice as heir apparent.

Election Thursday to the National Defense Commission would be the next step in the path to formally naming him as successor, a process that many believe will be completed next year.

April 2012 is the centenary of the birth of late President Kim Il Sung, a former guerrilla fighter who founded North Korea and passed the mantle of leadership to his son, Kim Jong Il. Pyongyang has promoted 2012 as a significant milestone in the country's history.

However, some people question whether Kim Jong Un will ascend to a major National Defense Commission post only six months after being made a four-star general and assuming senior Workers' Party posts while Kim Jong Il appears to remain in control.

"For Kim Jong Il, handing over a considerable amount of power to his son could mean a weakening of his own power base," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul's Dongguk University.

Kim Jong Il, 69, rules the nation of 24 million as the chairman of the National Defense Commission, but the commission's No. 2 post, first vice chairman, has been vacant since longtime confidant Jo Myong Rok died in November. Jo, a vice marshal of the Korean People's Army and top party official, held the post for some 12 years.

The National Defense Commission is authorized to formulate key state and military policies, and being named first vice chairman of the NDC would allow Kim Jong Un to start making his own inspection trips to army units, factories and farms.

"There is a high possibility that Kim Jong Un would become the commission's first vice chairman and assume the No. 2 spot in the government as well as in the Workers' Party," said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea who has watched the succession issue closely for years.

The transfer of power under way in North Korea is reminiscent of Kim Jong Il's own rise to power. He assumed top posts — including the chairmanship of the NDC at a parliamentary session 18 years ago — one by one in the years before his father's death due to heart failure.

In addition to winning the defense commission post, Kim Jong Un will likely be appointed supreme commander of the North's 1.2 million-member army and to two other Workers' Party jobs: organizational secretary and member of the political bureau's Presidium, said Ha Tae-keung of Open Radio for North Korea, a Seoul-based station specializing in North Korean affairs.

"At that point, the succession movement will pretty much be done," he said.

North Korea's parliament typically meets once a year to rubber stamp bills vetted by the Workers' Party. Its infrequent sessions are closely watched for clues to changes in the country's power structure.

Kim Jong Il used a 2009 legislative meeting to make a triumphant return to the public eye after months out of sight following rumors he had suffered a stroke. Last year, he reshuffled top officials.

In the months ahead, North Korea will also likely focus on winning economic assistance and improving ties with South Korea and the United States to help ensure a smooth power transfer, Prof. Kim said.

"More tension would be a burden for North Korea," he said. "It will opt for dialogue rather than confrontation, and initiate flexibility."

The World Food Program said last month that more than 6 million North Koreans need outside food aid due to hardships including heavy flooding and a harsh winter.

Tensions over its nuclear program and military saber-rattling have also cut into supply routes.

South Korea says North Korea must take responsibility for two incidents last year that killed 50 South Koreans — the deadly sinking of a warship and an artillery bombardment of an island in disputed front-line waters — before Seoul can resume supplying aid.

North Korea denies sinking the South Korean warship and has said Seoul prompted the artillery attack by firing toward the North first.

Gen. Walter Sharp, chief of the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, said he worries that the leadership succession could prompt North Korea to launch more attacks on the South over the next few years.

He told legislators Wednesday in Washington that U.S. and South Korean forces are prepared to respond militarily.