Mooney M20D (fixed gear), 180 hp Lycoming with an operating ceiling of 13,000 ft. If he was flying direct to Edmonton from Penticton (and it appears he was), he would be nuts to take such a route. Takes one over big remote terrain. (eg Columbia Icefields -- peaks top out at just under 13,000 feet and unpredictable weather in there in the winter or any time of the year for that matter.

RCAF JRCC has indicated that they have a cell phone ping off a tower near Revelstoke as well as a radar return in that area. Have not mentioned a ELT signal. This does not look good at all.

DIDNT FILE A FLIGHTPLAN (What!!!!!!).

I would have filed Penticton to the Cranbrook VOR (takes one north of Grand Forks, over Castlegar, Nelson and then into the Columbia Valley, then North up the Kootenay Valley, Sunshine Village, past Banff and then short stint over mountains and come out northwest of Calgary and then straight into Edmonton passing over Rocky Mountain House VOR.

This route avoids much of the big terrain plus you are near airports for a good portion of the flight. Plus I in winter I get up high and pick up flight following in case of a problem.

But the looks as of this fellow was flying like he was bullet proof. The terrain in and around Revelstoke where the plane supposedly went down is very rugged and remote. I would be very surprised if they find the plane.

I cannot find any news newer then 24 hours ago when the released the names. Are they still looking. Has this aircraft been found.

I'm also very surprised the lack of coverage, and also that this aircraft has not been found yet with all the leads they have (radar, cell tower ping). How much snow has been happening out that way? That could make it very challenging to find them.

Mooney M20D (fixed gear), 180 hp Lycoming with an operating ceiling of 13,000 ft. If he was flying direct to Edmonton from Penticton (and it appears he was), he would be nuts to take such a route. Takes one over big remote terrain. (eg Columbia Icefields -- peaks top out at just under 13,000 feet and unpredictable weather in there in the winter or any time of the year for that matter.

RCAF JRCC has indicated that they have a cell phone ping off a tower near Revelstoke as well as a radar return in that area. Have not mentioned a ELT signal. This does not look good at all.

DIDNT FILE A FLIGHTPLAN (What!!!!!!).

I would have filed Penticton to the Cranbrook VOR (takes one north of Grand Forks, over Castlegar, Nelson and then into the Columbia Valley, then North up the Kootenay Valley, Sunshine Village, past Banff and then short stint over mountains and come out northwest of Calgary and then straight into Edmonton passing over Rocky Mountain House VOR.

This route avoids much of the big terrain plus you are near airports for a good portion of the flight. Plus I in winter I get up high and pick up flight following in case of a problem.

But the looks as of this fellow was flying like he was bullet proof. The terrain in and around Revelstoke where the plane supposedly went down is very rugged and remote. I would be very surprised if they find the plane.

This isn't a troll, but I personally wouldn't do the flight at all, (and I've flown in that exact area) in that type of aircraft, based on the information provided, which allows risk factors to be Identified, and we can learn from.

And while we're on the subject, is there some reason simple risk management principles for PPL's can't be taught during the syllabus? Yes the herd will tell me it is taught. I say most do a piss poor job on this principle, somewhere between the teaching and the learning.

I cannot find any news newer then 24 hours ago when the released the names. Are they still looking. Has this aircraft been found.

I'm also very surprised the lack of coverage, and also that this aircraft has not been found yet with all the leads they have (radar, cell tower ping). How much snow has been happening out that way? That could make it very challenging to find them.

I spoke with a very experienced local professional pilot at Revelstoke and he says that the weather was very poor for such a flight on that day and at that time. It seems like the projected last position is right beside the highway, but to get a radar hit in there, assuming it's squawking back to the Fly Hills radar site, you'd have to be pretty high. Have to agree with the poster who put in the option of crossing to Cranbrook, then up that valley, and on from there.

Anybody got METARS or the area forecast?

---------- ADS -----------

Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.

Though definitely the consensus seems to be that he should have filed a flight plan, and that likely the weather played a huge factor, I'd like to chime in that the route he took wasn't necessarily terrible - at least, it wouldn't have been during day operations with good VFR visibility. I've flown it myself several times, some of which also in a Mooney of similar vintage, and it works well provided you're willing to make several small deviations from a direct routing.

From Penticton, fly up the Okanagan to Salmon Arm and Revelstoke, then the Rogers Pass to just north of Golden. I wouldn't do the Rogers pass necessarily in bad visibility as the valley is fairly narrow and the terrain on the sides is high, but in good weather, there's nothing at all wrong with it with the valley floor topping out at 4400'. From Golden there's a nice valley to follow to Saskatchewan River Crossing called the Blaeberry Pass, and from there it's a nice wide valley out of the mountains.

The great thing about this route is that with the exception of about 10-15 minutes through the Blaeberry Pass, there's a highway underneath you the whole way, and is a pretty direct route. So I wouldn't fault the pilot for choosing that route if the weather was conducive to it, or if he though the weather would be. Though of course if the weather turned nasty and he was stuck in the Rogers Pass at the time (which seems to be the case), it's definitely not a place I'd like to be. Particularly, a Mooney of that vintage has a pretty anemic climb rate at altitude, especially if it's loaded even close to gross.

I guess that if it turns out he knew the weather was bad, it certainly wasn't a great choice of route to go through the Rogers Pass. But if he had reason to believe the weather would be VFR with good visibility, it's a route that I, and I'm certain many people on here, would have chosen ourselves.

Except the lack of both is everything IMO. 2:30 takeoff time in late fall....

The time was definitely a potential factor. It looks like sunset in the area was around 16:00, with civil twilight at 16:40, but I know how quickly it gets dark when the Sun goes down, especially in the mountains. He'd have about 240 nm to cover to get out of the mountains, and at the cruising speed of that Mooney (I assume around 135 kt, which is what the one I used to fly could reasonably handle), that would take 1:45, so if he left at 14:30, he'd look to be getting out of the mountains at 16:15. Before it is legally night, but after the Sun would have set. I can understand the decision process he might have gone through, figuring he'd be out of the mountains before dark, though of course it would be cutting it close. But with all that said, if he did end up in trouble near the Rogers Pass, it likely would have happened during daylight hours.

I don't consider the season to be a necessarily limiting factor - if it were, we wouldn't be able to fly in Canada for half the year. Of course, having warm survival gear is essential and I think it's a good idea to give yourself bigger margins in the winter.

The one thing I haven't heard about is the actual weather he encountered on route. I know that SAR was delayed due to poor weather after the fact, but I wonder if the forecasts for his time of flight were OK.

I guess all I'm saying is that though there were likely a lot of factors that contributed to this (as there always are), independently I can see where a pilot could make the decision to go on the route he did.... considering the individual factors. There's nothing wrong with the route if flown during the day and with good visibility and ceilings. And he would have likely figured that even considering his late-ish departure time he'd be out of the mountains before it got truly dark. It might be cutting it close for many of our comfort levels (I love night flying and mountain flying individually, but have no desire to combine the two), but if the weather was forecast to be OK, I can understand why he may have chosen to do the flight.

I also have no idea as to the pilot's level of experience. Everyone has different personal minimums and it's important for us to continually reevaluate what we should or shouldn't be doing. It can be particularly insidious when a lot of factors taken independently are within our comfort zone, but stacked together may surprise us. The regulations try to prevent us from doing things that really no pilot should be doing, but those cover worst-case situations; there is a lot of grey area outside of that in what people are comfortable with. I personally know experienced pilots who would never fly in a single engine aircraft at night thinking it is an unnecessary risk. Or others who think single engine IFR is a recipe for disaster. And then there are other pilots who routinely fly single engine ferry flights across the Atlantic in adverse conditions and just consider it another day at work.

Except the lack of both is everything IMO. 2:30 takeoff time in late fall....

The time was definitely a potential factor. It looks like sunset in the area was around 16:00, with civil twilight at 16:40, but I know how quickly it gets dark when the Sun goes down, especially in the mountains. He'd have about 240 nm to cover to get out of the mountains, and at the cruising speed of that Mooney (I assume around 135 kt, which is what the one I used to fly could reasonably handle), that would take 1:45, so if he left at 14:30, he'd look to be getting out of the mountains at 16:15. Before it is legally night, but after the Sun would have set. I can understand the decision process he might have gone through, figuring he'd be out of the mountains before dark, though of course it would be cutting it close. But with all that said, if he did end up in trouble near the Rogers Pass, it likely would have happened during daylight hours.

I don't consider the season to be a necessarily limiting factor - if it were, we wouldn't be able to fly in Canada for half the year. Of course, having warm survival gear is essential and I think it's a good idea to give yourself bigger margins in the winter.

The one thing I haven't heard about is the actual weather he encountered on route. I know that SAR was delayed due to poor weather after the fact, but I wonder if the forecasts for his time of flight were OK.

I guess all I'm saying is that though there were likely a lot of factors that contributed to this (as there always are), independently I can see where a pilot could make the decision to go on the route he did.... considering the individual factors. There's nothing wrong with the route if flown during the day and with good visibility and ceilings. And he would have likely figured that even considering his late-ish departure time he'd be out of the mountains before it got truly dark. It might be cutting it close for many of our comfort levels (I love night flying and mountain flying individually, but have no desire to combine the two), but if the weather was forecast to be OK, I can understand why he may have chosen to do the flight.

I also have no idea as to the pilot's level of experience. Everyone has different personal minimums and it's important for us to continually reevaluate what we should or shouldn't be doing. It can be particularly insidious when a lot of factors taken independently are within our comfort zone, but stacked together may surprise us. The regulations try to prevent us from doing things that really no pilot should be doing, but those cover worst-case situations; there is a lot of grey area outside of that in what people are comfortable with. I personally know experienced pilots who would never fly in a single engine aircraft at night thinking it is an unnecessary risk. Or others who think single engine IFR is a recipe for disaster. And then there are other pilots who routinely fly single engine ferry flights across the Atlantic in adverse conditions and just consider it another day at work.

Yep, I'm with you. Night, mountains, SE IFR, crappy weather, all acceptable individual risks in my book. Its the combining that is an issue for me at least...---

I was taught always have a chicken out. I think when that is removed things can go bad.

And while we're on the subject, is there some reason simple risk management principles for PPL's can't be taught during the syllabus? Yes the herd will tell me it is taught. I say most do a piss poor job on this principle, somewhere between the teaching and the learning.

Weather knowledge too.

Thing is, you have to have a fair bit of flying or life experience to effectively teach risk management. (painting with broad strokes here) Most young flight instructors have neither...

From the Castanet article: "'We have not searched east of Rogers Pass as there was no ping information with the Rogers Pass cellphone tower from the phone on board the plane. It did communicate with the Fidelity Mountain cell tower near the west boundary of Glacier Park,' she read from an update provided to the family." For anyone not familiar with the pass, it makes an S-turn, with the head of the pass at the middle of the S, and then turns north, so the route goes east, north a bit, east a bit, and then north again. If the vis was poor and the pilot was unfamiliar with the route, he could easily have missed one of those turns and continued up the wrong valley, in particular I'm thinking that first turn north towards the head of the pass. I've made the same mistake in snow before in a different location when it was hard to tell which road to follow, but I was lucky enough to turn back while I still could.

I'm inclined to think you may be right on with that line of questioning on this. Figures out ... hey why not take advantage of a higher groundspeed (figures out 2 and 2 ... will get through there faster and way before dark). A 35-40-kts sustained in the mooney on the NE course to Edmonton .. if that component was predicted WSW/SW up there .... and if it's true no real experience in the mountains to fully grasp what exactly the risks are with the stronger numbers?

One of the primary things to learn and anyone will tell you, in a light, low performance aircraft, 40 -50 knot upper winds are really bad in the mountains.

If the vis was poor and the pilot was unfamiliar with the route, he could easily have missed one of those turns and continued up the wrong valley, in particular I'm thinking that first turn north towards the head of the pass.

That would be right past where the Trans Canada loops back on itself before heading north into the pass ....

---------- ADS -----------

Last edited by pdw on Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:32 am, edited 13 times in total.

While the administrators and moderators of this
forum will attempt to remove or edit any generally objectionable material as
quickly as possible, it is impossible to review every message. If you feel a
topic or post is inappropriate email us at
avcanada@gmail.com . By reading these forums you acknowledge that
all posts made to these forums express the views and opinions of the author and
not the administrators, moderators or webmaster (except for posts by these
people) and hence will not be held liable. This website is not responsible or liable in any way for any false or misleading messages or job ads placed at our site.

Use AvCanada's information at your own risk!

We reserve the right to remove any messages that we deem unacceptable.
When you post a message, your IP is logged and may be provided to concerned parties where unethical or illegal
behavior is apparent.
All rights reserved.