Great Ocean Walk 100km – The Predictions!

OK… so after round one of our ‘Big G tipping competition’, it’s still all to play for given the amount of people who didn’t back Mike Le Roux (shame on you!). But who should you back for what is arguably the most scenic 100km race in Australia? As always, it pays to get your entry in early, so remember we need your winner, plus the time you think that he or she will win the race in. Send your entries to ultra168@hotmail.com.

BUT, before we start, just a reminder of the prizes again. If you win this round you get the year’s subscription to Outer Edge Magazine, along with a Hammer goody bag, which all up is worth around $200. If you correctly guess the winner, you then move into the running for the overall prize bag, which as you know is over $1,500 worth of quality running swag courtesy of our sponsors at Hammer, Salomon, Hoka OneOne and Suunto. If you need a reminder, click here to have a look at the prizes in detail.

So who’s hot and who’s not? As always, this competition is about overall winner. We’re not distinguishing between male and female here. However we will give some thoughts as to whom we think would win the female race too 🙂

I’ll be totally honest, this race is going to be very very very close. It could even come down to sprint finish in the final few kms, such is the class and quality of this field. So without further ado, here are our thoughts…

Oli Zambon 1-2F – It’s very hard to look past a man who not only broke the Glasshouse 100km record, but absolutely smashed it in the process. Coming from the Sean Williams stable, Oli has his head screwed on and is under excellent stewardship. You don’t run 5:35min km pace for a 100km and fluke a win. This guy is pure class and we expect him to obliterate the course record again if the weather holds firm.

Dave Eadie 2-1 – Mr. Consistent of the Aussie ultra running scene, Dave is another class act and it was a real tough decision between him and Oli for first dibs. Dave has a marathon PB of 2:31… that’s smokin, but will he be fully recovered from his outstanding performance up at Glasshouse just a month ago. Very much the people’s favourite.

Julian Spence 2-1 – WHO? I hear you say? I’ve got one thing to say to you people who don’t know Julian – “Do some freaking research!” He is the Mike Le Roux of GOW. Seriously, watch out.

Chris Wight 3-1 – Take a look at the recent YouYangs results and you’ll see Chris’ name sitting proudly at the top. A real contender of genuine form leading into this race. A very real podium placing for this guy, if not a potential winner.

Toby Wiadrowski 4-1 – A podium finisher last year with a 12:25 to boot. Very solid runner who knows the course, which could play to his advantage if a few of the top guns go AWOL en route. Expect him to place high.

Dan Beard 6-1 – Another local favourite who finished fourth last year. A solid Bogong to Hotham runner too, this man could challenge a few of the top guys if they decide to have a game of war and blow each other up.

Gordi Kirkbank-Ellis (the third aka Running Mad Kiwi) 8-1 – This guy is like one of those joke candles you put on a 5yr old’s birthday cake. No matter how hard you try to destroy it, it keeps on coming back and lighting itself. He’s like a digestive biscuit that when it’s dunked in some tea, it refuses to break up and wallow and die in the bottom of the mug. Gordi just won’t give up. He trains like a mother and he races like one too. Definite top ten finisher.

Adam Schroeder 9-1 – Solid finish in just over 13 hours last year, means that he’ll be a genuine contender for a top ten place we would have thought, if in form.

Rob Hall 10-1 – If he can hold his gonads together with sticky tape and stop updating his Facebook on the move, this guy could well feature near the pointy end. He’s been training hard (or so his Facebook status update says), so expect a sub 13hr finish.

Anthony Bishop and John Keats 12-1 – Not a huge amount is known about these two fellas, although I’m sure their families know them well. Some decent times have been uncovered by your stato here at Ultra168, so keep an eye on them for a possible top ten finish. p.s. I don’t think they’ll hold hands and finish together, but if either one of them runs with Gordi, then expect a hand-holding orgy with skipping at the finish-line.

BryMcConnell 13-1 – This lady is already showing up a few men on the trails. She put in a very tidy performance earlier in the year at B2H, plus took an easy silver buckle at TNF100km as if she were taking candy from a baby. This lady will get better and better in the years to come we think.

Carol Lapsys 14-1 – Another leading lady with proven endurance and stamina on the road and the trail. Not quite sure what kind of form she’s in, but you know she’ll give it a bloody good go.

Natalie Wallace 14-1 – Another lady with a very respectable record, including an 8:50 Comrades performance under her belt. A slick 50km runner too, good podium chance for the ladies for sure.

Of course, caveat time! I ‘MAY’ have missed a runner or two along the way. It can happen even to the best of us. So, if you feel hard done by* and you think you’ve got more gas than Gordi on a bad day, write to the editor to protest your case and we’ll duly consider all applications.

*Pretenders need not apply.

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I'm a mediocre runner who can bat above his average when I train hard. A man of extremes, I do enjoy everything life offers and consider it an absolute pleasure just to be able to put one foot in front of the other and let my mind wander somewhere different.

Toby has been injured, I have no chance, I am going to go out hard to deliberately blow up to test recovery strategies. Chris Wight also won tw twice as a muttley and was their best runner. He also won mt macedon 50km. He is my tip on difficult trail.

John keats or odie on cr is super quick and took out you yangs in its first year, won by around an hour. He has also won the frankston to portsea 55km. Don’t let his dnf at you yangs fool you, he is super quick and has done 2:4X marathons.

If any of them run the Great Ocean “Road” they will be a DNF. The race is on the Great Ocean “Walk”.
And someone has to hold Gordi’s hand, it should be you Dan. I don’t want another phone call from him at 1am.
Are RDs allowed to tip? I already have the winner’s name on the trophy.
And you missed last years female winner, in good form at the moment.

Ahhh Whippet you spotted my deliberate mistake! All changed! Yes, the RD can enter into this part of the tipping competition. You may have a little more info than most, but all of that info is freely available, so I don’t see you having an advantage other than you life made easier by people sending you all their PBs.

Yep apologies to Nikki as well, she will be up there battling it out with the females for top spot I’m sure. Indeed the female race should be a very good one, and pretty close I reckon.

I’ll hold Gordi’s hand for him, then I’ll sprint to the finish line ahead of him, just like a did at Willy 2 Billy a few years ago… he may be able to climb hills, but he hasn’t got any speed on the flats has the big Kiwi 🙂

if my master gets in he’s gonna give it shot,he’s been training hard although he’s strained his calf but come race day if he’s right to go im backing him !! they’ll be no hand holding or soft cock slow start;its take em out hard and burn em out !!
woof woof

I think you will get good odds as your master although being able to run good times IS also been known to get lost or pull up a bit short in these big events.BTW any runner that needs to wear 2 pairs of his wifes calf guards can’t be that good.

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