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Thursday, 27 February 2014

Welease Bwian is usually a hold-up horse but can adopt any tactics - even try to lead. I doubt he can do that today coming out fourth on my ratings. This gelding needs something to disappoint to make the frame. Bay Knight can either be held up or track the leaders. This course will be too fast for him and the distance too short. I'm amazed to see Ann Stokell's charge 4/1 favourite. This looks a good lay bet on the win market. DESERT STRIKE is a versatile horse and could even lead all the way. This son of Bertolini comes out top on my figures. A wide draw (8) isn't ideal but if employing front-running tactics would be hard to beat. Profile Star usually tracks the leaders but may find this trip on the short side. Also, the trainer's form is quite poor. Danzoe is another who likes to track the leaders and registers second on my ratings. He must have each-way claims. Megaleka likes to sit off the pace but hasn't shown any form on this course. I would prefer a course with a slower surface. Mossgo is third on my figures, so another with win and place chances. Rise To Glory has recorded a slow time at this course but over seven furlongs. I think this horse will be outpaced. Dawn Catcher has no course form but has recorded fast times at Kempton. In addition, she has run well on good to firm going over five and six furlongs. Geoffrey Deacon's four year old likes to track the leaders.Summary: DESERT STRIKE will be very very hard to catch if taking an early lead. My top rated horse and decent odds at 6/1. The danger is the unexposed Dawn Catcher, which is priced 10/1. I would be wary of this horse if well backed. (E.R.I.C.)