What could be the reason for the nature's fury to cause heavy flood in the southern states

Wondering why Kerala experienced heavy floods? Looking out for the reasons for this natural calamity? On this Ask Expert page you can check out advice from experts for understanding the reasons for this fury.

Rain has played havoc in the southern states. The worst affected is the Kerala which has mountains and hills and enough greenery.

What could be the reason for the nature's fury that caused devastating flood situation in Kerala?1. Is it due to global warming?2. Is it due to change in climatic conditions?3. Is is due to deforestation?4. Is it due to sand mining?5. Is it due to God's fury?6. Is it due to blocking the waterways by building constructions?7. Is it due to government officials?8. Is it due to the politicians?9. Is there any other reason?

Answers

It is mainly man-made disaster only. The present-day people are responsible for the havoc. The earth is having the maximum patience. Whatever way we are behaving with it, it is tolerating and allowing us to continue. That should be taken as leniency. The main reason for this havoc is an abuse of nature by the human beings.There are reports made by experts on how to protect western ghats and how to prevent unscientific ways of urbanisation. These reports were published in newspapers also, I understand. But our rulers and officers will never have time to see such reports and make some good decisions. In the name of development, we are doing all sorts of harms to nature. We never think of the side effects of the actions we are taking. We will never give serious thought about these issues. So this types of disasters will be happening only unless otherwise, we mend our ways. As far as I am concerned the main reason for these disasters is the abuse of nature by us. We are abusing nature in many ways. Immediately we should change that attitude and when we take up a project we should study properly how nature will be getting affected with that projects and what are the measures to be taken to minimise that.

It's more related to the interferences of the mankind to that with the nature & whenever the mankind will continue to do the exploitation of the nature & will create the disharmony than the nature will make its response accordingly. And therefore it's only "us", who has more important role to play or else be ready to face the consequences as we are evident from flood in Kerala.

It is mainly man-made disaster only. The present-day people are responsible for the havoc. The earth is having the maximum patience. Whatever way we are behaving with it, it is tolerating and allowing us to continue. That should be taken as leniency. The main reason for this havoc is an abuse of nature by the human beings.There are reports made by experts on how to protect western ghats and how to prevent unscientific ways of urbanisation. These reports were published in newspapers also, I understand. But our rulers and officers will never have time to see such reports and make some good decisions. In the name of development, we are doing all sorts of harms to nature. We never think of the side effects of the actions we are taking. We will never give serious thought about these issues. So this types of disasters will be happening only unless otherwise, we mend our ways. As far as I am concerned the main reason for these disasters is the abuse of nature by us. We are abusing nature in many ways. Immediately we should change that attitude and when we take up a project we should study properly how nature will be getting affected with that projects and what are the measures to be taken to minimise that.

It is definitely a man-made disaster. TThis is caused by rampant deforestation and quarry in Western Ghat ranges. Mr. Madhav Gadgil who had headed the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel stated this in clear terms in a press meet on 17th August, 2018. I have discussed the issue in the following thread yesterday. Please go through the thread for detailed information:-

It is very difficult to attribute reason for such calamities because if there is a particular reason then such thing should repeat often.

In fact it is more of a statistical variation in nature that such extreme things happen. They do not happen daily. They are the departures from the average scenarios.

If we read the geological history of Earth then there is a description of ice ages when the earth surface cools down significantly due to many climatic and geographical reasons. These ice ages come after a gap of long time. They do not happen in 5 -10 year time frame. Similarly drought does not take place every year.

The extreme variations from average conditions bring disasters.

It is true that due to neglect of earth greenry and ecology the climate is changing and to some extent it is also responsible for such catastrophes but the deduction may not be true.

Scientists are still very much concerned for the mystery of such sudden outbursts of nature's fury and may be one day we will have solutions in this regard through the ongoing research projects.

Nature had provided protection and cushion for its actions. There was a p[roper ecological balance.

But humans progressively and greedily disturbed this balance and destroyed or exploited all the inbuilt checks and protections, in his race for selfish development. Humans wanted Earth only for themselves.

So when the loss or destruction pf the balance and protection went beyond the limit, the geographical area became vulnerable.

When the mountains and plains had a good coverage of trees and plants, and a good topping of rocks and soil, when the geographical lay out was a proper mix of higher level mountains and hills with many streams and rivers with unhindered flow, with marshy bushes at the place were the rivers merged into backwaters,- the rainwater were automatically regulated, absorbed by tree roots, branches and soil and was released in a regular and regulated manner. That protected from flash floods and also maintained the rivers as perennial suppliers of water.

All those were disturbed and destroyed by manual intervention. The result is what we see at different places in different ways. By and by the consequences become colossal as destruction is also becoming at a very high rate and pace.Though there were and still there are sane voices, they become weak and are ignored or silenced by various vested interests.This is just a forewarning. There can be repetitions and replays in other places also. So prevention is better. A little sacrifice of human greed and conservation of nature can help us. God forbid.

It is very true that the modern civilization and it's technological advancement has taken a toll on the environment and ecology of this planet. It is something like disturbing the nature and getting it's fury in the return.

At the same time nature has it's own variations, the reasons not known to us, which may bring such disasters.

If we read the geological history of the Earth we find that about 8200 years ago, there was a huge melting of ice which temporarily cooled the Earth surface.

Another disaster happened 4200 years back when there was a massive drought in various areas and it is attributed to even wiping out of some of the early civilizations at that time.

So yes, nature has its strange ways and we can not predict them with precision and accuracy

The recent Kerala floods would indeed be studied in detail as to how, why and safety measures for future events

A. Among the many reasons, the important are

1.The rains are around 30% more than what the state should have received. This year, Kerala received 2086mm of rain. In 1924, Kerala has 3368 mm of rain and had similar floods with loss of life and property.Around 6 distrcits recieved 20-59% higher rains.

2.The heavy rains meant early raising water levels in the dams. Instead of the gradual build up to peak levels by septemeber-october, this year, the dams were full by July-August itself. Of the 59 dams, above 50 od them had reached peak levels. The gates of about 35 dams had to be opened for safety reasons. Idduki dam (highest arch dam in Asia),Mullaperiyar dam had to open its gates which brought all the water to the catchment areas of the Iddukki dam, that was already in danger zone.On August 10, all the five shuuters of the Idukki dam had to be opened and the waters flooded the downstream areas.

3.The human factor: the greed of few of us had led to the suffering for most of us in this situation. Rampant deforestation,stone quarrying, sand mining, brazen construction on the river banks and river beds.

4. The consequences of an ill-planned dam or hydroelectric project from the ecological point of view. The classic example is the push for the Atthirappilly hydro-electric project that has been said to have major ecological damage as per the Enviornmental assessement reports (page 85 of this pdf http://www.moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/wg-23052012.pdf).

5.Ignoring the critical reports like the Gadgill report/Westerb Ghats ecology expert panel of 2011 about the importance of demarcating and preserving Ecological sensitive zones.

B.Debatable factors

1.Malabar Migration: The huge movement of people over few decades upto 1970s-1980s added pressure on the pristine land (huge tracts of land converted for inhabitation and agriculture).

2. Ill-timing of opening of the dam gates: In the aftermath of the floods, few experts have questioned the delay in waiting for the dam levels to become critical and then opening the gates, it could have be done earlier in a controlled manner (https://www.dailyo.in/variety/kerala-floods-idamalayar-dam-idukki-dam-pinarayi-vijayan/story/1/26125.html).

3. Lack of Early warning and relocation of people at risk: was it at all possible to anticipate and do this, easier said than done.

4. Sub-optimal Disaster preparedness at the grassroot level: If we look at Japan and its earthqaukes, people are trained, have drills and kits in anticaption, perhaps such prepardness at the local village/taluk level is needed to mitigate the damage.

I think that there is no particular reason for it, but I can say that global warming may be one of the reason for this particular calamity because global warming causes either heavy rains or rain lapse. We could not say at which place it shows the effect.

As the part of it, heavy rains might cause the calamity in Kerala. At the same time, mansoon joined its hand to this devastation of Kerala. So, I can say that global warming and monsoon effect may cause the calamity in the particular area.

Entire balance of the earth has been disturbed by the the massive deforestation and a total shifting of new cultures allowing to come up sky - rocket buildings, factories and industries which even give rise to pollution and oozing out poisonous gas affecting human - health. The floods or the droughts appearing in the certain pockets of the countries are the results of depletion of the plants which would otherwise could contribute to ecological balance . Industrials effluents get mixed with the rivers and the gases ejecting out of the industrial chimneys give rise to contaminants in the sky disturbing the natural - balance causing floods somewhere and droughts in some areas. We need to take up a preventive step to reverse the deforestation so as to get natural ecological balance.

One cannot attribute a single reason for the present flood.Very clearly there was an increase in the rain fall. From the very beginning the planners have constructed dams in almost all rivers. Because of this the high quantity of rain water could not go freely to the sea. More over the dams had already enough water. Even if the routine rain fall would have filled the dams to the total. Since these waters stored are used to generate power, authorities were reluctant to open the dams and release water. So an added rain fall was against their expectations. After a particular stage these dams had to be opened evidently for safety reasons. This joint openings of dams together with the continuous rain inundated the valley causing heavy damage. Also to add to these the human encroachment to the hilly areas by way of building constructions, road laying, agriculture, making quarries for taking rocks, removal of big trees and also heavy loads of soil, etc had made the forest area very flexible. Water falling in the forest areas could reach the dams and rivers very easily and quickly. The loose soil helped the soil erosion and together with it the destruction of constructions. Heavy rocks also fell down from the top there by destroying everything on its way. It destroyed the houses too. Thus human encroachment into the forest and controlling the smooth running of water through the rivers have resulted in this flood. Unscientific planning and development threat are there behind these calamities. Disturbing the environment has to be controlled at least in future, so that such calamities might not repeat.

One major point I missed in my post above may also be pointed out here. It is the reduction of area where the rain water is generally spread. The paddy fields in Kerala were very large which stored the rainwater earlier. The area of the same has reduced very much. Presently this area of paddy field is not even one third of the area once the State was having. Actually the paddy field control the flow of water. Paddy fields are mainly spread on the valleys of hills. The rain water starting from the hill top slowly flow down and reach the river. In this way water flow is controlled. Because of the reduction in the area of paddy field water directly reached the residential areas, towns and cities.

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