Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

The irony can't escape someone in the mainsteam press that it's not ok for petrol to keep going up, but it is for house prices...

It is laughable SarahBell, but this is what we're dealing with in the UK in 2011. Millions of ignorant people who complain about inflation making them pay more for food, holidays, and 4x4 fuel, but are quiet happy to see houseprices inflate at 20% a year.........just as long as they bought when prices were affordable of course.

The attitude is....."F*ck anyone who needs shelter in 2011. Let them pay 3 times what I paid or let them sleep on the street if they can't afford to."

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

It wasn't that long ago that Cowie was writing about how wonderful it was that homeowners had "a unique opportunity to enjoy tax free profits" (not that exact working). What he didn't mention is that the profit is at the expense of other peoples debt.

Cowie is a dyed in the wool homeownerist now pretending (having made his personal profit at the expense of the next generation) that he somehow gets it.

But if interest rates and unemployment rise won't that happen to many home owners ? That's what a house price crash will mean. The last time in the early nineties, people were getting kicked out of their homes and there were a number of people sleeping rough as a result.

It is puzzling that property has doubled in value in the last ten years, yet shares are at about the same level and wages have only risen moderately. The only thing propping the market up is the low interest rates which are preventing forced sales.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

It wasn't that long ago that Cowie was writing about how wonderful it was that homeowners had "a unique opportunity to enjoy tax free profits" (not that exact working). What he didn't mention is that the profit is at the expense of other peoples debt.

Cowie is a dyed in the wool homeownerist now pretending (having made his personal profit at the expense of the next generation) that he somehow gets it.

Even so, he didn't have to put a link to this site or even mention it.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Even so, he didn't have to put a link to this site or even mention it.

Exactly Cowie didn't have to mention or link HPC, it had an article about 2 months ago with the words house price crash in the headline too. He is the closest hpc will get to a friend the the MSM

He is one of the few personal financial journalists to have been writing about it last time round so he knows what is coming. I suspect his kids will be in their 20s and looking to get a home soon so he has a bit of self interest in seeing sensible prices

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Exactly Cowie didn't have to mention or link HPC, it had an article about 2 months ago with the words house price crash in the headline too. He is the closest hpc will get to a friend the the MSM

He is one of the few personal financial journalists to have been writing about it last time round so he knows what is coming. I suspect his kids will be in their 20s and looking to get a home soon so he has a bit of self interest in seeing sensible prices

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The price of a typical house fell by 0.2pc in April, which left prices 1.3pc lower than the same period of 2010. The three month on three month measure of house prices, a better measure of the underlying trend, showed a modest rise of 0.6pc

.

Bob Gardner is either ignorant or deliberately misleading the public. Houses have not fallen by anything like 1.3% YoY. I am proceeding with a property that was around £289k at peak and being bought for £220k. That is not a fall of 1.3%. And this is typical around here (East Sussex) where house prices are "resilient."

The only resilience I am seeing is VIs attitude toward reality.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The price of a typical house fell by 0.2pc in April, which left prices 1.3pc lower than the same period of 2010. The three month on three month measure of house prices, a better measure of the underlying trend, showed a modest rise of 0.6pc

.

Bob Gardner is either ignorant or deliberately misleading the public. Houses have not fallen by anything like 1.3% YoY. I am proceeding with a property that was around £289k at peak and being bought for £220k. That is not a fall of 1.3%. And this is typical around here (East Sussex) where house prices are "resilient."

The only resilience I am seeing is VIs attitude toward reality.

What happened to Martin Gaurthaubouree? Maybe he was sacked for being too bearish?

Edited May 4, 2011 by Pent Up

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Even so, he didn't have to put a link to this site or even mention it.

Just because a big shot journo is giving an acknowledgement in payment of a debt of gratitude for economic enlightenment given by this site, it doesnt mean we have to be grateful in turn. That is the HPC way, no mercy, even for those that want to be our friends.

Bloody parasites.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Just because a big shot journo is giving an acknowledgement in payment of a debt of gratitude for economic enlightenment given by this site, it doesnt mean we have to be grateful in turn. That is the HPC way, no mercy, even for those that want to be our friends.

Bloody parasites.

Are you always like this or did you get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Good piece by Cowie but I don't think it's a honey trap, I think it's a PR response to the recent report that one of their top men said they'd prefer to lend at 75% to investors than at 95% to first time buyers

House price forecasts aren't the kind of thing one gets into fisticuffs over. Or so I thought until I found myself in a fevered discussion with a friend-of-a-friend in the pub. The topic of the housing market came up, and I volunteered my predictions.

"Really," he said. "You really think everything's going to be OK?" I answered that provided prices don't rise too much in the next couple of years, there is only a distant chance of the market collapsing.

"Don't be ridiculous," he said. "I've no doubt at all there's going to be a crash."

He continued that houses are more unaffordable than they've ever been; we are more indebted than we've ever been, and that interest rates and unemployment are about to rise.

"It is," he concluded, "all about to end in tears."

It wasn't the man's views that I found disturbing. It is quite reasonable to assume that the market could crash: prices are indeed still high and various scenarios could set off a serious slump. No, what was disturbing was the fervour and slightly unhinged aggression.

Not only was he convinced that the economics meant a crash was inevitable; he was also convinced that the past decade's boom had been engineered by homeowners for their own benefit and to the intentional detriment of potential first-time buyers.

It seems there is quite a cabal of people in his court. They congregate online at a website called housepricecrash.co.uk, where they exchange views on why it is better to rent than to buy, and place bets on how long it will take before prices slide back to mid-1990s levels.

I wouldn't recommend the site to anyone looking for a balanced take on the market: many of its users seem to have a positive vendetta against homeowners.

Check out a few of the most popular forums on the site: The Arguments For Rising House Prices Debunked, The Perfect Storm Is Coming and Are We Living In One Huge Scam?

To which the answer is, of course, no. Nobody - not me, not economists, not even Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England - knows what will happen to house prices.

The latest fall in house prices recorded by Nationwide and the Land Registry underlines the unsettled state of the housing market.

In particular i like this bit of straw grasping

While a strong uplift in prices looks highly unlikely, first-time buyers desperate to get on the housing ladder will be disappointed to hear that so too does a significant plunge. Low levels of activity will continue as more people lose their jobs and get further into debt, while mortgage availability remains tight. We are unlikely to see an improvement in any of these as household spending remains under pressure until well into next year.

A plunge is unlikely becasue a number of factors that would be consistent with falling prices are all aligned. She could only have sounded more ridiculous if she had mentioned that the numbers falling behind with mortgage payments is climbing despite the record low interest rates; low rates that must come to an end soon!

I smell fear!

Edited May 4, 2011 by Caveat Mortgagor

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Just because a big shot journo is giving an acknowledgement in payment of a debt of gratitude for economic enlightenment given by this site, it doesnt mean we have to be grateful in turn. That is the HPC way, no mercy, even for those that want to be our friends.