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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

They keep wanting to tell us how dumb we are. In the last 12 years four qbs drafted in the top 5 have had success out of like 20 qbs taken The manning brothers, Phil rivers, and Matt Ryan. But hey we need a qb....damn the odds! We can all agree Geno is not rg3, luck, Peyton or Eli who were all sure fire number ones.

Thankfully we have management now that sees the importance of BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE!

I was so glad to here the things i have heard from Reid. This we have to draft a QB talk is so short sighted. I have and will say it again drafting a bad qb will set us back farther then not drafting a QB at all.
From Andy Reid when asked about taking a QB at 1
"you can't force it that's when you get in trouble"

And then to here Dorsey say he will take the best player on there board was just like music to my ears. We need a qb bad. But getting the wrong Qb will be worse then sticking with Cassel since you have to give that QB time. I just want to get the RIGHT Qb I don't care who it is and where he comes from

Is there a Matt Ryan in this draft? It all depends on the talent. Not just drafting a qb to get a qb. We are getting the best player on the board. It's what the GM said. It's what the packers have done. It has worked out pretty well for them.

You have to draft to be willing to find out. I would much rather go after another possible future good qb than a Tyson Jackson or Glenn Dorsey.

I think they will go qb with the first pick, and I think it will be Geno.

I was so glad to here the things i have heard from Reid. This we have to draft a QB talk is so short sighted. I have and will say it again drafting a bad qb will set us back farther then not drafting a QB at all.
From Andy Reid when asked about taking a QB at 1
"you can't force it that's when you get in trouble"

And then to here Dorsey say he will take the best player on there board was just like music to my ears. We need a qb bad. But getting the wrong Qb will be worse then sticking with Cassel since you have to give that QB time. I just want to get the RIGHT Qb I don't care who it is and where he comes from

Something the Geno lovers will never understand. Spot on. Geno is not the be all end all. If he was we would all agree to get him.

No lets draft Geno at number one. Hate to be the bearer of bad news either you are ignoring what they are saying ( Reid and Hunt) and haven't read up on Dorsey whatsoever. We will not be reaching at the pick. If we stay at number and no qb is the clear cut number one on the board we WILL be drafting the best player available.

A quote from our new GM "we draft the best player available. We live it!"

Bet you are pissed we fired Pioli now he loved to reach on a draft pick.

How do you know they don't think Geno is the best player on the board? Geno fits Andy Reid's style well, I think they go that route.

I was so glad to here the things i have heard from Reid. This we have to draft a QB talk is so short sighted. I have and will say it again drafting a bad qb will set us back farther then not drafting a QB at all.
From Andy Reid when asked about taking a QB at 1
"you can't force it that's when you get in trouble"

And then to here Dorsey say he will take the best player on there board was just like music to my ears. We need a qb bad. But getting the wrong Qb will be worse then sticking with Cassel since you have to give that QB time. I just want to get the RIGHT Qb I don't care who it is and where he comes from

Remember Reid took Mcnabb and he obviously thought Mcnabb was the best on the board, ruling out Geno would be dumb. He could very well be Reid's choice. Especially with the qb situation we have.

Your 2nd round pick is gonna go top 15 and your 3rd round pick is going to go 1st round. Hali didn't even run a 4.7 second 40 at the combine and he's not gaining speed with age. Hali and Houston are both OLB in the 1 gap 3-4 defense. Basically we need 2 more DL. First pick should be Star (actually trade down but you know what I mean).

You have to draft to be willing to find out. I would much rather go after another possible future good qb than a Tyson Jackson or Glenn Dorsey.

I think they will go qb with the first pick, and I think it will be Geno.

They will be willing to draft a qb but there doing there homework with this pick. That's what I like. If Geno's the guy great do it. If it's someone else that might not be a big need at that spot great do it. It has worked for Green Bay for years. Dorsey has stated that they always took the best player out there since he was there. They have the best winning % in the NFL in that time. I don't want anther Jackson or Dorsey at 1 either but I also don't want a Ryan leaf Jamarcus Russell Tim couch David Carr That would hurt us just as much if not more then anther Jackson or dorsey

Remember Reid took Mcnabb and he obviously thought Mcnabb was the best on the board, ruling out Geno would be dumb. He could very well be Reid's choice. Especially with the qb situation we have.

Show me where I have ever Ruled out Geno I beg you. Once again it's you twisting my words to make it to that just like you do when I point out mistakes by others not named Cassel to make it out that I like Cassel no matter how many times I say we need a QB. Stop twisting my words I have just said I want the best player out there. If that's Geno fine. IF that's teo fine in thats whats his name from that college you never heard of fine. The only thing I have ever said is I want the best player I just don't care who that player is or what spot he plays at.

Keep in mind that Reid is not above drafting a player that the fan base doesn't want. The McNabb pick was boo'd lustily by Philly fans (who wanted Ricky Williams), and Philly fans did not want Vick to come to Philly. Williams at that time was the "best player on the board" in nearly everyone's mock-ups. Additionally, people thought he treated Kolb unfairly (losing his job due to injury), but again, Reid did not care.

History shows Reid will do what he wants to do. If he thinks Geno is the way to improve the QB position best, he'll do it and not think twice about it.

I tend to think he's going QB with one of his first 2 picks, because its buys him time with the media and fans ("hey..I have a rookie QB...therefore there are going to be lumps and I need some time....")

And btw, as someone who is in Seattle, RW destroyed Flynn in practices. Carrol himself suggested that the competition "wasn't very close." That should raise some alarm bells with Flynn, even though Wilson was a great, you'd think a veteran could give a rookie some better competition. And the coaching staff at Miami didn't want Flynn, even though they were familiar with him. Reminds me of Leach's comments about Stephen McGee when Dallas drafted him, "Apparently, the Dallas Cowboys like McGee more than his coaches at A&M did." McGee was a bust obviously. Leach was on to something there...