* My apologies if you’ve read most of this on my Twitter timeline, but not everybody does; and since I had to wait around before I was freed from jury duty this week, I decided to assemble my stray thoughts onto one take, maybe add a few others, and here it is…

-News item: WR Anquan Boldin signed a new two-year with the 49ers worth $12M with about $8.5-9M guaranteed.

My understanding is that the general terms were agreed to a while ago and it just came down to Boldin deciding if he wanted to take two or three years–essentially Boldin, 34, only wanted to sign for as many years as he expected to play in the NFL.

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He’s a key locker-room presence and target for Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers had to get him back, which they did, at a fair price for both sides.

And I’d figure that this will be a pattern (and it’s the same 49ers pattern as always): Despite the hub-bub surrounding Jim Harbaugh, Trent Baalke and Jed York, players sign or don’t sign with teams because of their OWN situations and their view of a team in the short-term.

Is the team offering the right money, is the situation right for playing time, and can the team win right away?

For Boldin, all of those answers came in the affirmative when the 49ers deal was put on the table. And there you go.
It’s not about the coach’s relationship with the GM or likelihood that this all lasts into the 2020s.

It’s about here and now and Boldin’s deal led the way for the 49ers off-season.

If a deal gets done–like this one–it’s not about the “chaos” at 4949 Centennial, it’s about one player and one situation. And when and if other key deals don’t get done, it won’t be about the “chaos,” either.

That’s about Harbaugh, Baalke and York specifically, and there will be an end-point to this, no doubt. But it’s not about what a player wants in a deal and it certainly won’t be about what the 49ers are offering.

-On to the Kaepernick talks…

I know there has been some amount of 49ers-fan panic as everybody gets on tiptoes waiting for word on a potential extension.

But folks, these things take time and long-term quarterback extensions take the most time.

No doubt, the 49ers and Kaepernick both would like to formalize their relationship over a long period of time and both sides will work to get that done.

If they can’t get it done this off-season, they can keep at it into next summer.
And if there’s no extension even by then, Kaepernick still can be franchise-tagged in 2015 and ’16… and as a QB, he could even get the special tag for 2017, if it came to that.

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So: Settle down a little.

Even if Kaepernick has an epic 2014 season, and there’s no long-term deal by this time next year, the 49ers are not in danger of losing him as long as they’re willing to pay the franchise-tag salary, and believe me, if he has a great season of course they’d be willing to do that.

They’d better be willing to do that. (Yes, the Boston Globe and NFL Network have confirmed Matt Maiocco’s earlier report that Kaepernick’s representatives have set $18M per as the low-point for which these negotiations must begin.)

Remember, if you do the math, Kaepernick currently is due a base salary of about $1M next season.

If he gets the franchise-tag in 2015, and supposing it’ll be in the $18M range, the 49ers could get two more years of Kaepernick for less than $20M–or less than $10M per.

On the flip side, if the 49ers immediately pay him $18M now (figuring in guarantees fitted to first 3 seasons of any deal), it’d cost about $36M for the same two years AND the 49ers would be locked into him.

There is some disincentive for the 49ers to jump Kaepernick into a top salary right now… and there is some incentive to doing it (you’d like to have your Franchise QB locked up deep into his career, without having to worry about a year-to-year process and the probability that the market rate skyrockets)…

Another key point on the Kaepernick negotiations: He is by far his agency’s biggest client. That doesn’t mean things will go easily for the 49ers; in fact, I think that might push this the other way.

It’s prudent for XAM Sports to be very careful on this one. If it rushes into a deal that puts Kaepernick at a lower number than the industry believes he deserves, that won’t look good as it looks to land more headline clients.

So Kaepernick and XAM Sports know that he at worst could be looking at a franchise-tag in 2015 and that’ll be around $18M.

If Kaepernick is OK living with a low number this season, he has every reason to ask for more than an $18M average salary in any long-term deal, because he wants that average salary number to be very high.

That means there are complications to this deal. It almost certainly won’t happen overnight. It shouldn’t happen overnight.

Everybody settle in.

* Late update: I should’ve included that, for all the reasons stated and the complications involved, the best compromise for Kaepernick and the 49ers might be a shorter-term deal at a good number…
Something like three years, $45M.

That puts him at $15M per, a much lower average salary than he’d be seeking, but puts immediate cash in hand, only wipes out TWO upcoming high-salary years (2015 and 2016) and then allows him to hit the market hard again after the 2016 season.
By then, QB salaries could be another 20% higher–for instance, if Russell Wilson and Cam Newton hit the jackpot… then there’s Andrew Luck in a few years, etc., etc., etc…

In this “compromise” scenario, the 49ers would be facing with the prospect of paying Kaepernick $45M for three seasons.

If they do nothing and then use the franchise-tag, they probably would be into Kaepernick for about $40M for three seasons.

That’s a better deal for Kaepernick, right, if he presumes that he might be staring at $22M-25M per as a free agent in 2017?

And for the 49ers, that’s a better deal than committing, say, 7 and $130M with $40M or so guaranteed right now. In a three-year “compromise” deal, the 49ers would also get a few more relatively below-market years to evaluate him for the mega-deal.
It gets Kaepernick his money now; but I realize the Kaepernick camp might feel very short-changed by this, which, again, is why this is complicated.

I don’t think Kaepernick would take that deal and I see why, but that’s the compromise I could see… maybe if the 49ers pop that AAV up to $17M or so… something like 3 years, $51M with $30M guaranteed?

Thanks Tim – I’d much rather pay big on Colin Kap than on Cutler or Romo – I actually feel sorry for those NFL franchises to have to root for that mediocrity – AND pay big bucks to boot! And Alex Smith took a lot of dough from the 49ers with lessor results. Yes, Pay Colin Cap, and make the resulting cap casualties to help pay for him…

Donnie

Not having Harbaugh onboard means the Niners lose the “we can develop a replacement” card. Meaning Kap has all the leverage. Count out one loss in the new “BaalkeAsMessiah” era. Of course Jed won’t like that angle. So Kawakami won’t write it.

desmond dorian

What’s for the trolls to say how kap sucks and if Alex Smith was the qb the niners would be going on a 3 peat lol what a joke esp the three peat part

J-RIDAH

$18M per? That’s an awful lot of money to be paying a player that is really just a pretty good RB.

BigBrad184

Tim – regarding your last update, I don’t see how that could be very appealing to the Niners. I mean if your going to still end up guaranteeing Kap around $30M but only on a 3 year deal, why wouldn’t they just go to around $40M guaranteed for a much longer deal? They’d be able to get out of the deal without too much dead money after a few years and that removes the risk of a significant increase in the market rate for QBs.

Michael Duffy

The smart way to deal with Kaepernick is to pay him the minimum this year and put the franchise tag on him next season if he plays well. Then you are probably looking at around 40 million for those 3 years with much less risk. Kaepernick isn’t worth Peyton Manning dough. Alex Smith could have taken that team to the playoffs and with the season Smith had it’s very possible they would have done just the same. Until Kaepernick improves his pocket presence and goes beyond one read he isn’t even a top 10 quarterback in the NFL (Crabtree was completely covered by Sherman on Kaepernicks stupid interception). Joe Montana’s recent observations on Kaepernick were pretty mixed and are far more astute than anything Kawakami has to say. Kaepernick so far is just a slightly above average NFL quarterback on a great defensive team.

For what it’s worth Harbaugh is the one to give a pay raise to. Coaches like him are rare and if the 49ers start throwing money around, Harbaugh WILL be gone for good (then it’s back to the bush leagues for the 49ers).

Bigmouth

That’s a teensy bit more than I’d like to pay for Boldin given that there’s a glut of WRs available through the draft/FA. Honestly, though, I’m okay with an overpay given what he did for us last year.

Mark M

The bitter Alex Smith clown clubbers will not change, that has been established. They’ll be bitter and loyal to that mediocrity forever. It’s just what I’ve noticed over the last year or so. Our window of opportunity exists only because Kap is now our QB along with this talented roster. But I do hope we can talk his number down as that big of a number could hamstring the remainder of the roster. We need to add talent to catch Seattle.