The two teams have similar
records, but differ in their form coming into this game. After a 16-1 start
to the season, Syracuse has won only two of its last 6. This includes
tough games at Pitt and at home to Louisville, but also a disappointing loss
at Providence. The Orange did pick up a good win over West Virginia on
Wednesday, but they have yet to earn a notable road win. Villanova
started 2-3 in conference, but has hit a bit of an easier stretch of the
schedule to reel off four straight wins. Don’t think that ‘easier’ means
‘easy’, though, as it includes beating Pitt by 10. This week, featuring
games against Marquette and West Virginia, in addition to this game, will be
a very important one in determining where in the standings the Wildcats will
end up.

Syracuse is a strong
offensive team – not up to the level of the Big East’s 3 or 4 top teams, but
easily the best of the rest. The Orange’s ability to score depends on making
a high percentage of their shots, their 55.2 eFG% is the conferences’
highest. While a lot of focus goes to Syracuse’s three-point shooting
guards, the Orange actually do their best work inside, 5th in the
nation in two-point percentage. A lot of this has to do with their fast pace
of play, which creates a lot of fast break opportunities and open chances.
This pace also can lead to a lot of turnovers, an area Syracuse struggles
with. The Orange are also poor free throw shooters, under 65% on the year.
Villanova has been very strong defensively, especially inside; it sits in
the upper echelon of the Big East in both defending two-point shots and
recovering rebounds. The Wildcats will force a good number of turnovers, but
must be careful to not let Syracuse dictate play too much: when the pace has
increased, Villanova’s defense has consistently gotten less effective.

Villanova’s offense is
good, but nothing special; they do a lot of things well, and manage to stay
effective without making a particularly high percentage of shots. The
Wildcats give up few turnovers, get back a good number of misses, and make
frequent trips to the free throw line, where they shoot a Big East leading
75%. Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse teams are synonymous with the 2-3 zone, which is
itself associated with poor defensive rebounding and allowing a lot of
attempts from the outside. While these characteristics are typical of most
Syracuse defenses in recent years, this year has been somewhat different.
While the Orange still struggle with defensive rebounding, and get opponents
to attempt a lot of threes, this year they have been more successful
defending outside shots than ones inside. Syracuse allows less than 30% of
attempts from behind the arc, which is one of the nation’s best rates.
Another strength of the Orange is avoiding fouls, as it is second in the
country at keeping opponents off the line.

Villanova features an
excellent inside-outside duo in 6-8 Dante Cunningham and 6-2 Scottie
Reynolds; the two lead the team in every major category. Cunningham has not
improved his play much from his solid 07-08 season, but has taken a much
larger role without dropping his level, a very impressive feat. He’s a 56%
shooter from the field, and averages 7 rebounds and more than a steal and a
block per game. Reynolds hasn’t been quite as effective, but he’s a solid
outside shooter and a good distributor of the ball, and is an excellent guy
late in the game, especially from the line. Beyond Reynolds and Cunningham,
five other players average between 23-and-27 minutes, providing the Wildcats
with some good depth. Sophomore Corey Stokes is a 42% three-point shooter
off the bench, while fellow guards Corey Fisher and starter Reggie Redding
have struggled with their respective shots. Inside, Antonio Pena is one of
the team’s best rebounders and a decent scorer, but has recently found
himself replaced in the starting line-up by Shane Clark, who is also an
effective rebounder, but doesn’t do much offensively. Dwayne Anderson’s
return from a stress fracture also provides a good player on the boards,
though Anderson can be too three-happy at times.

Syracuse has an excellent
starting five, but its depth, especially in the backcourt, is somewhat
questionable. Sophomore Jonny Flynn leads the team in points and assists,
he’s a decent three point shooter, but uses his quickness and athleticism to
generate a lot of good chances inside, both from open play and from the free
throw line. Eric Devendorf faced some disciplinary problems earlier in the
season, and it’s been critical to the Orange’s success to have him back:
he’s another good shooting guard that can score both inside and outside,
though he does have trouble with turnovers. Andy Rautins usually starts in
the backcourt, but an ankle injury forced him to miss a game last week, and
it’s unclear how he has recovered. Rautins is a three-point shooting
specialist, but is just 1-for-10 in his last two games. Paul Harris is only
6-4, but he’s a spectacular athlete, and his size isn’t a big problem when
going up against the Big East’s tough frontcourts. Harris shoots 53% from
the field, and leads the team in rebounds. Arinze Onuaku has had some injury
concerns of late that have limited his playing time, but when healthy, he’s
an excellent inside option, converting 69% of his shot attempts and doing
very well on the glass, while averaging more than a block per game.
Syracuse’s primary bench players tend to be on the inside, led by sophomore
Rick Jackson, who boasts the team’s highest blocking and rebounding rates.
Belgian Kristof Ongenaet and Canadian freshman Kris Joseph are somewhat less
effective options.

This looks like a fairly
even contest, but Villanova’s home court advantage should be enough to get
it to eke out a close finish. I typically don’t like focusing on pace too
much, but Villanova’s past games suggest that if the tempo heads north of 75
possessions, its defense will struggle, while Syracuse is much more
comfortable with this style. If the game turns into a track meet, Syracuse
should be favoured to win it.

Winner: Villanova Margin: 3-7

-- Evan Dorey's game previews & rankings are based on
Elo Ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple, all teams are assigned an
initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating
preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains
points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are
gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets
you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the
game (which is capped), and the game’s location. To take a look at Evan's
College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit
his website or
blog where he discusses the
rankings along with other statistical observations about big games and
interesting teams.