Don't You Know About the "Dress Rehearsal?"

Over and over, on this site, much conjecture is posted about "what MIGHT happen, when and if....." Others ( convinced newcomers?) post their agony about not being able to persuade family, friends, etc., about the necessity of preparation. Why not take a deep breath, relax, and observe what happens on April 1? (I've posted this before on other sites, as an "answer." Maybe headlining it now as a question will get more attention, I hope!) On that day, Canada, Japan, and New York State will advance to fiscal year 2000 in their computer systems. A few days after that, we will learn, via the media, whether New York City and other places experience "disruptions" (putting it mildly) from people who do not receive their welfare checks. (Or am I conjecturing? I don't think so!)) On April 6, Great Britain's government systems advance to fiscal 2000. After just these events the first week of April, problems with convincing others will be eliminated, I believe! (Now we can start conjecturing about whether there will then be massive bank and food "runs!") Hopefully, readers, you're not waiting til then with your own preparedness! Lord help us!

Holly, I totally agree with you. I think it will take more than a few
days, or even weekds to really judge the fallout of the April
rollover. But, I'm certain that by next summer it will be much
clearer. Unfortunately, even if the problems are only moderate, fixing
them, which will need to be done immediately, will take away resources
from the "longer term" y2k problems that won't have popped up yet.

New York State, as an example, may simply choose in April to reprint
March's checks, so many people won't notice at first. Etc. I have a
feeling that summer '99 is going to be incredible...

I don't think I want to wait to prepare. If there are big failures
04/01/1999, the herd will turn, and I won't have time. If 01/01/2000
comes and nobody notices, I can give a large part of my food stockpile
to a food bank, or other charity.

While I expect some problems with fiscal rollovers, I doubt you will
here very much about them. Critical items like checks could be
produced by jamming 1999 dates back into parts of a system. Oh, it
would fall apart after a few months of this kind of "workaround", but
I don't expect immediate fireworks. Actually, I hope I am wrong about
this. If L.A. or New York have "welfare riots" because of Y2K related
processing, that will jolt the rest of the country into frantic
preparation.

I like RD's take on fiscal rollovers. Even if there are problems we
wont hear about them right away. I actually think there are problems
NOW that we just aren't hearing about.

The big problem with 1999 is that during the time that remediation is
occuring there will also be bugs and errors and failures all occuring
at the same time. Tough work environment to say the least.

I think the global economy will be the biggest worry of 1999 and thus
only compound the seriousness of y2k. That will be the major factor
that will cause bank runs, business failures, a market crash, etc.
People that don't give a darn about y2k certainly do care about the
economy, their jobs and their investments.

"While I expect some problems with fiscal rollovers, I doubt you will here very much about them."

This is the case now with Y2K failures of any kind. What was the percentage of companies that have already experienced a Y2K related failure according to the Gartner study... 48%? I think that was the precentage though I'm not sure. How many did we hear about? Even if it was 'only' 05%, where are they all? The answer is under the corporate rug.

Perhaps it's reasonable to expect more of the same. Many of us look towards April and the fiscal rollovers with a keen awareness of the potential failures. Yet it's possible the failures will have to be either so pervasive or of such high magnitude, that companies won't be able to hide them. If they are not, we won't be hearing much about them.

The question, I think, is will the failures be severe or frequent enough for us to get a Y2K clue. If they aren't, it'll be less likely we will be finding out that soon. All of this is predicated on the assumption that the feces doesn't hit the turbine beforehand, which is not an assumption I am comfortable making.

I think we will see an increase in domestic terrorism made to look as
if it is y2k problems...the oil refineries will be a target since
there is an oil glut. If our refrineries were taken out they would
control the oil

Have you noticed how many large corporations are sending layoff
notices? They blame it on the Asian economic crisis, which is valid,
but I can't help thinking Y2K is lurking behind the corporate
decisions too, not to mention Wall Street's insistance on profits not
people.

What happens to all these people, estimated at a half million being
laid off this year, when the unemployment computers start having
problems? Isn't that one a January 1999 estimated wake-up event?

The unemployment rate was just released this morning - 4.4% - lowest in 6 months. I think it is a measure of last month's figures, before the newest rash of layoffs got really rolling. If that is the case, it should bump up when they release this months rate about this time next January.

Layoffs low, HOW can it BE? For real, EVERY DAY in the paper you read of companies shutting down, more following, I tell you someone is FUDGING the numbers, they must be. Get real, with all the layoffs going on, the government screaming "good economy" but yet on t.v. all are blaming asian economy. Something is UP bigtime and if we believe for one second these stats are right, i got one word....................NOT.............

True about Japan's fiscal year. 1999 begins April, 1st, 1999. But, that doesn't change RTC or date calculation routines. I really don't
see the fiscal rollover as being a true indicator of problems to come. Fiscal rollovers are part of planning and projections only. They
are more a part of documents. I fear that the lack of visible impact will create a false impression and complacency. I see people
making claims such as," I told you the problems are small," or companies making claims that they are well prepared and the lack of
problems during the fiscal rollover prove their claims.

IMHO, the fiscal rollover is over rated as an indicator. Comments please...

I think you're right. Fiscal-year rollovers are more of a bookkeeping
problem, which a customer might never know about. I think early Y2K
glitches the public will notice are things like insurance policies
that go into effect January, 1999 and expire January, 2000.

The whole "unemployment rate for the last five years" low, low,
low,....unbelievable!!!! Course we work 'off the grid'...but we don't
believe it ever for an instant...I agree...there is major IFGURE
FUDGING going on somewhere.

What was the reported-recorded unemployment rate before the 1929 crsh?
anybody know?

Remember that the unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people actively looking for jobs. If we have just heard of the massive layoff plan (ie boeing), chances are, those people aren't searching for their next job yet.

One more thing...I don't think that the unemployment rate pre-1929 would be a very accurate comparison to todays rate. In 1929 most of the work force consisted of men. It wasn't until WW2 that the women really started to leave their homes. Furthermore, it has only been in the past 2 decades where it was necessary (or appeared that way) for both members of a family to hold a job - just for survival.

In the early 80's the unions started being done in by by the
government. Air traffic controllers strike; allowing companies to
cancel union contracts by entering into reorganizational bankruptcy;
negative going changes to guaranteed pension plans, etc. Before
that, it was not *usual* for both members of a family to be required
to work.

Re Clinton not having actual sex. I wonder what that will do for all
the working girls and their johns. Maybe they can now sue for false
arrest?