MLBTR Mailbag: Moustakas, CarGo, Jays, Moncada

Thanks, as always for your questions! Remember, you can also pose your inquiries to our writers during any of three weekly chats: myself on Tuesdays at 2:00pm CST; Jason Martinez on Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST; and Jeff Todd on Thursdays at 2:00pm CST.

Do you think the Mets should go hard after Mike Moustakas in the off season? What kind of an offer could land him? — Mike O.

At this point, as sad as it is to say, I don’t see how the Mets’ front office can head into 2018 under the expectation that they can get any notable contribution out of David Wright. (That’s all the more true after today’s news that Wright’s rehab assignment has been halted after he experienced shoulder pain.) Viewed through that lens, Moose makes sense as a somewhat reasonable on-paper target for the Mets, who don’t have an upper-level third base prospect that’s forcing his way into their plans.

The Mets do, however, possess quite a few infield options. Even if they don’t retain Asdrubal Cabrera beyond the current season, the Mets have both T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores as third base options in addition to Wright. I don’t know that spending on a top-of-the-market third baseman is going to be in the cards for a Mets club that perhaps still hopes to get something out of Wright next season and has at least two capable MLB alternatives already on the 40-man roster.

I’d currently peg Moustakas to land a five-year deal worth $90MM this offseason, and that’s a pretty heavy commitment given the current structure of the Mets’ roster. Moose’s on-base issues — he sports a career .305 OBP — may also give Mets GM Sandy Alderson pause.

While the Mets have a long-term need at the hot corner, I’d imagine they’ll be looking at other areas of need first in free agency. The bullpen, perhaps an outfielder (depending on Michael Conforto’s eventual diagnosis), some catching help and even some rotation stability to provide insurance in the wake of this year’s injuries all seem like more pressing needs.

What sort of contract is Carlos Gonzalez likely to get? Something befitting his newfound mediocrity like 3/15? Or a 1-year make-good deal for $5M or so? How much do you think he lost by not agreeing to an extension last offseason? — Allan H.

I can’t see Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras taking multiple years at a low annual rate. A one-year deal is going to be their best bet heading into free agency. Recent examples of former star-caliber players that have had poor seasons and signed one-year pacts have shown that a one-year, $5MM deal may be beneath Gonzalez, though. Carlos Gomez signed a one-year, $11.5MM contract with the Rangers this offseason. A much older Matt Holliday got $13MM on a one-year deal (albeit coming off a better year at the plate).

I’d expect Gonzalez to sign for one year in the $10-14MM range in hopes of cashing in on a rebound season and looking for a much larger payday next winter. He’ll play next year at the age of 32 and would be 33 when seeking his larger contract if all pans out well, but that’s not too old for a corner outfielder to earn a solid contract.

I don’t know what the Rockies were offering him this spring, though I do recall chatting with Jeff Todd at the time and expressing surprise that the Rox were even interested. I’d have capped an offer to CarGo in the Josh Reddick range (four years, $52MM) at the time, and in retrospect, even that looks like it would’ve been a marked overpay.

For starters, I’m not sure where the notion that Pompey is ready for MLB time comes from. Pompey’s OPS in Triple-A last year barely scraped .700, and he’s been limited to 49 plate appearances this season due to injuries. He’s not pushing Pillar for a job anytime in the near future. Hernandez is likely to get a look as a potential everyday corner outfielder in September and next year, and I’d imagine that Alford will be presented with a similar opportunity.

Smith was left unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft twice and went undrafted both times. He’s put up solid but unremarkable numbers in Triple-A this season — .270/.344/.393 — and is less than two months from his 25th birthday. That doesn’t make him too “old” to be a future contributor by any means, but it’s important to note when gauging his overall ceiling. If any one of Hernandez, Pillar, Alford and Smith is going to be destined for fourth outfielder duties, I’d imagine that it’d be Smith.

Pillar’s bat isn’t great, but he’s one of the best defensive players on the planet. He’s been worth nine to 11 wins above replacement over the past three seasons (depending on your preferred version of the stat) based largely on the strength of that glove. Pillar shouldn’t go anywhere.

Is it too soon to abandon all hope on Yoan Moncada becoming the next Cano? How many perennial all stars struggle this mightily at the MLB level before becoming 3+ annual WAR players? Who is a comparable player with a similar history? — David C.

Moncada is barely 22 years old. It’s not uncommon at all for a player that young to come up and struggle immediately. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 through his first 135 PAs as a rookie. Byron Buxton was labeled as a “bust” by many earlier this season when he opened the season 4-for-49 (and struggling in earlier MLB action), but he’s hitting .276/.336/.455 since April 25 and .333/.370/.657 since the All-Star break. There are dozens of other examples of players that came up and performed extremely poorly early on. If anything, early struggles should be the expectation as opposed to immediate stardom. (We are not worthy, Rhys Hoskins.)

For all of Moncada’s struggles, he’s still getting on base (.328 OBP, 15.5 percent walk rate) and showing some power (three homers, six doubles, a triple, .168 ISO). Strikeouts are probably always going to be an issue for him, but 140 plate appearances of struggles don’t prove he won’t eventually be a quality MLB regular. He won’t ever win a batting title with this level of swing-and-miss in his game, but there’s no reason to give up on him right now.

However, in terms of being “the next Robinson Cano,” it’s best to just get that notion out of your head right now. Moncada was likened to Cano because his swing looks similar and he’s going to play the same position, but Cano is an outstanding contact hitter and has only K’ed at a clip greater than 15 percent in one season. Moncada doesn’t need to be the “next Cano.” Have some patience, let him be himself, and enjoy having his talent.

Comments

Couldnt agree more.. Im sure a lot of it is due to excitement of what Hoskins is doing, along with Trevor Story, and Judge starting performance. .People have such high expectations over small sample sizes these days.

Also being a perennial all star or similar generally goes hand in hand with handling the pressure of high expectations. It alone is a reason many players never develop and something scouts look for in players’ personalities.

This is very similar to what happened to him when he came up with the Red Sox for an even briefer period last year. He hasn’t had the chance to take a breath yet…first the hope was he’d boost the Red Sox in a playoff race. Now he’s been traded for Chris Sale and has that pressure from White Sox fans. Guy needs the chance from the fans to be himself sometime.

Except most of that talk/”pressure” actually isn’t coming from the White Sox or their fans. The heavy majority of people that rip on him and call him a bust are not White Sox fans; they’re fans of other organizations.

Most Sox fans with a brain (yes, there are a handful that still don’t know what’s going on, even though Hahn laid out the plan for them) understand that this is a process and will take a little time. Obviously we all would’ve preferred for him to come out of the gates like an absolute monster (Rhys Hoskins), but nobody smart is giving up on him anytime soon.

I’d also argue that it couldn’t be any further from what happened to him with the Red Sox. They called him up straight from AA to help with a late season playoff push (not to mention that the played him out of position too). Expectations and pressure were SIGNIFICANTLY higher for him than they are now. The White Sox actually have the time to let him develop at the major league level without needing to rely on him to help win important games.

Exactly. Well said Priggs. Only a handful of “prospects” come out of the gate firing, and I’d rather have Yoan work out his kinks now, rather than in ’19 when this team is expected to begin their assault on the AL

Honestly, whatever team signs moose to 5/90 is going to regret that deal sooner rather than later. Moose’s plate discipline is suspect at best and he’s a big guy. I can easily see him being a guy whose defense detoriates once he’s on the wrong side of 30.

I generally agree that Moustakas won’t be worth what he’s going to be paid at the end of whatever deal he signs but I also think he could slide over to first base easily once his third base defense declines.

All that being said he’s probably going to get paid very well. There isn’t really a huge demand for third basemen across the league but the free agency supply this off-season is basically Moustakas and a bunch of guys who would be lucky to get a second guaranteed year on their deal.

I agree. Moose is an easy fit at 1B and he’s not a crazy high strikeout guy. His walk rate is bad but he does tend to put the ball in play so I guess that mitigates some risk. If it were my team I wouldn’t want to throw $90 mil at him but someone will.

In regard to the Mets, Alderson did fine to get anything out of Bruce, Grandy, Reed and Duda while adding longer term assets like Ramos. Moose wouldn’t be my choice, however. They’d be better off adding someone cheaply like Valencia. 2-yrs/$18m isn’t killing anyone and Valencia is much safer. That two years gives them time to further develop third basemen on the pipeline like Jhoan Urena. Moose is a timebomb waiting to happen. First year or two might be ok, but he’s just as valuable as Wright is now in 3 years in my opinion.
In regard to Toronto- they have pretty much gotten almost nothing right this summer. I’ll give credit where it’s due- they managed to get something for Joe Smith and Francisco Liriano, however it makes no sense to keep Estrada on an expiring deal or Happ, an aging veteran whose value could fall out any day with that contract.
Just looking at their division and the rest of the AL- they are behind 8-9 other AL teams in present and future value. It makes no sense holding out hope that they can compete next year with Martin, Happ, Pearce and Tulo all pretty much done.
On top of that look at their system
In terms of near ML-ready guys: Alford and Teoscar have high ceilings (although Hernandez’s floor is also low) and the rest of the guys in AA and AAA have struggled mightily.
Everyone having success is not projected to be ready until some point in 2019 or later. If I’m Mark Shapiro, I’m dealing Smoak while his value is high, Osuna, Pillar, pretty much anyone who’s not going to be around in 2020. They have the pieces at the big league level to trade that would get them back on track rather quickly.

I agree wholeheartedly. The Jays were never in it this year, as I called from spring training on. Everyone is tradeable except Pillar, Osuna, and Stroman. They have to build around someone and these 3 are a good as any. This Mgmt team doesn’t seem to care about winning, they just want to build long-term and fill-in holes with also-rands so they can sell tickets. It is beleived that they were ordered by the board to sign Bautista. That money could have gone to pitching which is really what was needed. Unfortuantely adding more hitting would have matter with the huge holes in this pitching staff.

Many thanks to the guys at MLBTR for answering my Jays question. Im sure you had many questions from the mailbag to choose from and im amazed that you picked mine. Im just a guy from a city on a island in the north east, St.john’s, Newfoundland, Canada to be exact. So anybodys question can be answered dont be afraid to send them in to the mailbag or the chats ive had questions answered in both

I think Moncada will be fine. He has all the tools and looks the part. I think his issue is putting too much pressure on himself trying to live up to the ridiculous hype. Once he gets past that he will be fine.

Dalton Pompey ready for big league action? Classic Jays fan comment. Someone’s been watching Sportsnet and believing every word. Ah, that Roger’s koolaid. Must say, I love watching Pillar play CF, that catch he made off Betts (last night) is outstanding in any ballpark in any era.

Pillar is elite defensively and good offensively. He’s a keeper. Plays much like Hunter Pence. He’ll bat better in the future too, he is still learning. As far as Dalton Pompey, he may not ever make the big leagues as a fulltime player. Definitely his speed will get him to the MLB level again, but last time I saw him, he couldn’t run quality defensive routes and his bat was a weak MLB level. Hernandez will get a taste of the bigs this year as a test and pending health Alford will be here soon. I scout him better than say a Lloyd Moseby.

Moustakas and the Angels seem to be a perfect fit. With Escobar going to be a Free Agent, so the Angels will need either a second baseman or third baseman. Moustakas would also feel the Angels need to have a left handed power hitter in the middle of the lineup. And with second base really not looking good for FA this off-season.