Analyst: Connecticut likely to see gas prices spike

Chris King fills up his truck at a gas station displaying a price of $4.59 for a gallon of self-service regular gas Friday, Feb. 22, 2013, in San Diego. Gas prices have spiked between 57 and 59 cents over the past 30 days in California. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) less

Chris King fills up his truck at a gas station displaying a price of $4.59 for a gallon of self-service regular gas Friday, Feb. 22, 2013, in San Diego. Gas prices have spiked between 57 and 59 cents over the ... more

Photo: AP

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Chris King fills up his truck at a gas station displaying a price of $4.59 for a gallon of self-service regular gas Friday, Feb. 22, 2013, in San Diego. Gas prices have spiked between 57 and 59 cents over the past 30 days in California. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) less

Chris King fills up his truck at a gas station displaying a price of $4.59 for a gallon of self-service regular gas Friday, Feb. 22, 2013, in San Diego. Gas prices have spiked between 57 and 59 cents over the ... more

Photo: AP

Analyst: Connecticut likely to see gas prices spike

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A oil industry analyst with a website that tracks gasoline prices around the country said Wednesday that Connecticut drivers can expect a price spike of 15 to 40 cents per gallon between now and Easter.

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst with GasBuddy.com, said the two key factors in the price spike are speculators on the commodities market and the shutdown of three major refineries for maintenance that supply the bulk of the gasoline for the Northeast. But Kloza said that while prices could rise in the short term, 2014 likely will be one of cheapest years for gas prices nationally since the start of the decade.

“Right now, places like Connecticut and California are real hot spots in terms of gasoline prices,” he said.

The average price of gas in Connecticut on Wednesday, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

Gasoline futures were at $2.495 per gallon in early November, and 30 years of historical precedent suggests a 57 percent rise in that price from winter to spring. But Kloza said GasBuddy believes the 2014 rally will be well below that, perhaps a modest 25 percent increase in futures prices that would add another 35 cents per gallon to prices at the pump.

Two large Delaware River refineries already are offline for maintenance, according to Kloza. Adding to the problem is the largest offshore contributor to U.S. reformulated gasoline is the Irving refinery in St. John, New Brunswick, which will be down for extensive maintenance in late February and most of March.

“It could be late March or early April before you get all three refineries back online,” he said.

Other U.S. refineries are shipping much of what they produce overseas, and Kloza said the cost of shipping gasoline to foreign countries is a fraction of what it costs the refinery companies to move their product from port to port here in the United States.

Kevin Curry, a partner in the Meriden-based wholesale fuel distributor Danby’s, said there also is a shortage in diesel. The average street price of regular gasoline for the service stations Danby’s deals with is up seven cents per gallon in the last 10 days, Curry said.

“It’s hurting the customers, but it’s also hurting us because our (profit) margins are shrinking,” he said. “We’re hardly making any money.”

But Gerry Katz, owner of Gerry’s Shell Food Mart on Willow Street in New Haven, said late Wednesday he thinks this winter’s stormy weather will be a factor in keeping prices lower than what GasBuddy.com is predicting.

“There’s fewer people out on the road, so there’s less gas being purchased, once people fill up their vehicles in advance of the storms,” he said. “I sold 5,000 gallons on Wednesday, but I’ll be lucky if I sell 500 or 600 gallons on Thursday. Nobody is going to be out in the storm, except for the snowplow drivers. The lack of consumption from all these storms will moderate prices.”

Call Luther Turmelle at 203-789-5706. Have questions, feedback or ideas about our news coverage? Connect directly with the editors of the New Haven Register at AskTheRegister.com.