Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Republicans lead in Wisconsin Gov race

The race to be the next Governor of Wisconsin is a close one with Republicans Scott Walker and Mark Neumann both holding a small lead over likely Democratic nominee Tom Barrett.

Neumann is up 43-38 and Walker's advantage is 42-39. Very few Democrats or Republicans are crossing over to the other side in their support, but the GOP candidates both have a wide lead with independents. Walker is up 41-29 and Neumann has a 43-26 advantage.

At this stage none of the candidates are all that well known. Walker is the most prominent, but 43% of voters still have no opinion of him with 31% viewing him positively and 27% negatively. Barrett and Neumann are both blank slates to 49% of voters in the state. 29% see Barrett favorably to 22% unfavorably and 24% have a positive opinion of Neumann to 27% negative.

One thing that may not be doing Barrett any favors is the unpopularity of outgoing Governor Jim Doyle. His approval rating is just 29% with 58% of voters disapproving of him. His 5% approval rating with Republicans is even worse than Barack Obama's, and he's at a negative 22/64 ratio with independents as well.

With the candidates pretty much unknown at this point the early lead for the Republicans would seem to be a result of the general mood of the electorate right now, which is a negative one toward Democrats. The race is basically a toss up and things could change a lot between now and the fall as voters become more familiar with their choices.

No it's not clear the Neumann is the more electable candidate. Walker is a really well liked and respected by both republicans and democrats in Milwaukee. Why? Because his willingness to work with both sides of the isle and not taut party lines and do what's best. I really hope this entire state gets to this. Scott Walker as our gov would be a refreshing change of pace over Doyle and Thompson.

Where can I find this 18% on record? And by GOP, do you mean political insiders, not general voters? All of the polls I've seen recently show Neumann and Walker head-to-head, which is great because Walker has been running for many years, and it hasn't taken much of the public long to recognize Mark Neumann (the newbie in the race) as a better candidate for governor.