Giants Offer Three-Year Deal To Lincecum

The Giants offered a three-year, $37MM deal to Tim Lincecum, reports John Shea and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Specifically it'd pay $9.5MM in '10, $12.5MM in '11, and $15MM in '12, buying out three of Lincecum's four arbitration years. Shea says Lincecum's agent Rick Thurman "countered with a proposal north of $40 million." Plus, Thurman wants the first-year salary within a multiyear deal to be close to the $13MM figure they submitted. You have to imagine he'd at least want to top Ryan Howard's first-year arbitration figure of $10MM.

Giants assistant GM Bobby Evans told Shea talks are ongoing, though the sides have not spoken in 72 hours. Shea says "such a lapse in negotiations isn't unusual." If no deal is reached prior, a hearing will be held tomorrow where Lincecum's 2010 salary will be decided at $8MM or $13MM by a three-person panel.

As you know, there's no comparable for Lincecum whether we're talking about his first arbitration year or a multiyear deal. Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander are not Super Two players and signed extensions after their first arbitration years. But both received about $20-23MM for their first three arbitration years.

Sure, and players shouldn’t have taken steroids to boost their stats, and Scott Boras should be pitching his manure out in a cow pasture somewhere, but that’s not how the world works. I think this offer is an insult to Lincecum, and he’d have to be an idiot to sign the deal. He’s going to win his $13 million, and if he stays healthy and pitches like he has been, next year’s arb figure will be closer to $20M. Take the security of a multiyear deal, but anything less than 11-12M for this year isn’t worth discussing.

As an individual you want to make the most money you can. Stop looking at the game as a fans and look at it as a baseball player. This is their job, this what its going to feed his kids. Once he stops playing BB, that is it. This is a business, its not a hobby.Giants are just being cheap, they are paying Barry Zito 18M a year.

Fans should look at the game as fans, not as a business, but to comment (as above) that Lincecum should take a deal for quite a bit less than he’s worth “for the love of the game” is unreasonable. We should look at the game as fans, but Lincecum should not.

So, if fans should only look at the game as fans, then you shouldn’t care what your team’s GM does? Or, fans shouldn’t care about ticket prices? That’s all business…so, we shouldn’t care according to you, right?

It sickens me that $37M isn’t enough…the dude is amazing, but he only plays 32-35 times per year. I shouldn’t get goin’ on this topic because obviously all the posters thus far seem to think it is OK to be completely and utterly selfish. When is enough..enough?

32-35 starts = an average over the past 2 years of facing 915 PA’s. That’s 200 more PA’s than a typical starting batter will get over the course of the year.

Just because he spreads them out over fewer games, his individual impact on each game he plays is exponentially higher than what ANY batter in baseball. It’s not even close.

The question is do you value more a guy who has a significantly lower impact in 150 games or a guy who has tremendous impact over 35 games? For me, they are one in the same. I value a star starting pitcher exactly the same as a star positional player.

Let’s bring back the reserve clause! Everyone will play for the major league minimum on 1 years contracts! We can abolish the union while we are at it- no need for that anymore. It’s all about the TEAM!

Im not sure if this is sarcasm or not so if it is I apologize. Otherwise Baseball is his job not a hobby he does on the weekend before a few beers with his buddies. Would you take much less then you have earned at your job because you wanna help out the team? Especially when the owner is making millions of of you?

I still dont get why fans are against players getting paid a fair share of the revenue THEY create for their clubs? This guy has done nothing but produce for his club and be in the top 3 starters in the NL why shouldnt he get properly compensated for it? If you were the best employee at your company and brought in multiple millions of dollars in business would you say, “Dont worry its cool, I’ll take whatever you want to give me not what im actually worth on the market?”

It would be great if every player took team friendly deals and helped out the club but not as great as if every owner reduced ticket and merchandise prices to $5 so everyone who wanted to go could and every kid could own his favorite players jersey but thats a fantasy land.

why fans are against players getting paid a fair share of the revenue THEY create for their clubs? I think you summed it up in your last paragraph. Fantasy Land or not I would venture to guess the cost of going to a game is what strikes a chord with a lot of fans.

The problem is ticket prices are more dependent on supply and demand. Teams will usually charge as much as much as they can get away with. Say a team was paying the minimum for every player on its 25 man roster, but that team was amazing and everyone in the city wanted to go, those tickets would be expensive still because the owners want to maximize their revenue. Even when teams lower payroll they hardly ever lower ticket prices to match that.

What about players that don’t generate revenue? Should the fans be happy to pay for their salaries as well.

This is a question of risk. You want ownership to assume all of it.

Here’s what I say to players who want to earn more. Start negotiating more leveraged contracts. Take a guy like Lincecum. Instead of 3/37 or 3/41 suggest a deal that is guaranteed to pay 3/33 with incentives..

Here’s how the numbers would break out … $11m per year for the next 3 years. Even if Lincecum sucks beyond this year he will still get $11m (minimum) per season through arbitration. Then if he pitches good, but not great (relatively easy to achieve milestones), you bake in performance incentives to get him to the 3/40 range. This gets him to the point he is negotiating now. Finally, if he pitches like he did in 08/09 his incentives bump him another $10m. Now the deal becomes 3/50.

So a guy like Lincecum assumes more of the risk. If he gets hurt or is otherwise not effective then he leaves about $7m on the table. However, if he plays up to his expectations he could earn an additional $8-$9m above and beyond any deal that is being discussed today.

Reality check time. You are talking about players who played in a different generation. Todays players mostly go to the highest bidder. They all spew the same stuff this is a great city, and this great city has the greatest fans. Then when it is time for a payday not everyone, but most everyone will sign with the highest bidder. If you are looking for loyalty I would recomend you get a dog.

Honestly, I think he can do better…possibly much better. Something like 11/14/17 might be more realistic. If he stays healthy, he’ll probably make more in the arbitration process, but there’s something to be said for “covering your @$$” in case of an injury.

Agree completely I think those numbers are perfect, add in the bonuses for Cy Youngs (and voting), All Star games ect. and I think he’d agree to a deal.

As for the Giants perspective on it. They will pay $13 million this year in arb. (no way they’d only award $8million). Even if he got injured he’d make pretty good money in arb. the next year, because his starting point is so high. Sure the Giants could cut him and they wouldn’t have to pay, but someone would pay him good money betting on his arm healing.

At least matching Howard’s first-year arbitration $10MM should be expected. A three-year $37MM deal sounds about right but I would bet before they are negotiations are done the deal will be at least three-year $40MM.

Hell the Giants are just lucky he’s not asking for more than $13mil. He’s the best pitcher in the game and should be paid accordingly. He’s easily a $20mil + pitcher on the FA market. I know they control his services, but at the same time he’s the face of the franchise and brings in the revenues for this club. He’s worth every bit of the $13 mil and they know they cant win that hearing. Lincecum should just carry in his cy young trophies and say here is my case, enough said

The Giants also stayed with him when he was found with marijuana (and had to pay a fine) given its not that much, but in an arbitration case, I would imagine that the giants could use this in an argument. Interesting to see where this goes

What were they going to do release him on a morals clause? So some other team could pick him up.It has been reported that The owner of the Giants gives Saben
a dollar amount he will let him spend on salarys and he has to stay within that amount. The Giants owner is controling the costs of his team.

Lincecum leaving will depend on a number of issue’s most likely cash and/or winning, not anything said in a arbitration hearing. The pot thing is a negative to his reputation. Probably hurting jersey and ticket sales some. The guy used poor judgment admitted to it and wants to move on. The only argument the Giants have is he would be the highest paid pitcher in arbitration history at 8M.

If I’m Lincecum I’m taking the Giants to arbitration and making the $13 mil. There is no way the Giants win this case their offer is a joke for a guy who has won the last 2 Cy Young awards. You can live a comfortable life very easily on the $13mil alone so his financial security is already somewhat there. Take 13 this year and next year sign a 5 year/90 million contract if you continue the domination. If you have an ok year the good(and bad) thing about arbitration in MLB is that they can have even a bad year and still get a small raise. Lock in 13mil as your base going through arbitration years. It just makes sense

I don’t think Lincecum signs beyond his arb years. He’s said in the past that he prefers to go year to year. I think it would be better for him to sign a three year deal, take arb the last year, then go out on the free agent market to see where he lands. I may hate seeing that as a fan, but it would maximize his earning potential.

I agree, though – if this is the best the Giants want to do, go to arb. No way he loses.

Why would minimizing risk with a pitcher of his body type and funky delivery puzzle you? I’m sure if he got a three-year deal this offseason and did well in 2010 and 2011, that the Giants would look to extend him again.

We heard the same bull crap spewed by the dodgers and Pedro Martinez. It is easy to find a defect or make up one when you have to put a spin on a situation. If you watch his delivery in slow motion it is almost perfect ,he is one of the least likely to have arm troubles. He uses his whole body to pitch with.

3 year deal is probably exactly to Lince’s liking. Think of it: 3/$12.3-13 mil. and if he doesn’t take the extension, he’ll be 28-29 entering the market(AKA BIG money for FA anywhere)….it’s a win deal for him, I’d take it and don’t look back

Thank you … finally a post that makes some sense, rather than throwing around a bunch of numbers, realistic or not. This is a negotiation process, and this is the dance that they do. If they go to hearing, that is fine. But I would not be surprised if a deal is struck (in principle) even if Timmy and his agent are in the air on the way to St. Pete – after all, they do have wifi now on airlines.

There are a number of considerations involved in coming to a deal:
– It has been said here that a first-year arb player has generally been awarded about 40% of free-agent market value, which increases by 20%/yr up to 80% in the third year. (Not sure how this applies to Super Two’s) So the $8M Giants offer equates to a FA value of $20M which is reasonable for pitchers. This is presumably based on historical hearing awards and will certainly be argued by the team at a hearing.
-MLB and the MLBPA presumably are exerting excruciating pressures to produce the most favorable outcome for each side. This means a record award for the Players and for MLB, a number that will not bust the current salary structure. A reasonable 3-year deal that starts at $10.5M, but also discounts for possible future injury may satisfy both sides and could be the eventual landing spot.
-Finally Andrew Baggerly brings up a great point in his Feb 3 Extra Baggs blog; the Giants are terrified that MLB will terminate their territorial rights to San Jose and allow the A’s to move there. This is why (supposedly) the team is holding the frugal line on the Lincecum offer and another reason not to go to hearing and land a reasonable deal that doesn’t offend the owners. Of course the Players know this too and will advise on the negotiations accordingly.

Been hearing all week there were no negotiations between the 2 and now this. Typical of the Giants as they are good at not releasing much info to the media. I bet the 2 sides are closer than we are led to believe. Someone said “why only 3 years”? It has been Lincecum’s position all along to go 1 year at a time so it would appear 3 years is a good compromise between him & the team. Put your money on a signing before the the case goes to arb and the deal will fit right into the Giants’ plans to win it all in 2 years.

If he does sign for 3/37, he still has another arb year left. The Giants are going to have to pay this guy 200MM when that contract is up if they want to keep him. He’s going to command a shit ton of money. 15 in the third year of arb is crazy! That means at least 20 in his final year. He’s going to sign for 25 a year when this is done!

If he continues on as he is , or wins a few more Cy Young awards he may be able to command 30 million a year. You hear the word Ace used all the time, then you see the so called ace has an earned run avg. in the mid 4`s baring injury Lincecum will be the best pitcher of his generation. There other young guys that are starting to emerge and may also be considered aces but overall in baseball quality pitching is somewhat diluted. Young tim is special indeed. The Dodgers blew it by passing up on this guy. They might have won a championship in the last few years if they took him. They took Kershaw instead which was a good pick but he is not Lincecum.

Let Felix Hernandez, Greinke, and Verlander pitch 35 games in the NL.. Let them face a pitcher on average of 3 times a game. 3 x 35 = 105. Or you can put Lincecum in the AL and have him face the DH on average of 4 times a game. 4 x 35 = 140.

The reason he should make less than Zito and company is because he’s less experienced despite having superior talent.

That said, I think if the Giants made that offer with the intention of it being a serious offer rather than a starting point, they’re going to be disappointed. It almost seems like their hoping Lincecum is willing to take a hometown discount. Even if the Giants win arb this year then Lincecum, even if he pitches close to as well has he has over the next 3 years, could probably get somewhere north of $42M in arb over the next 3 years. So that, should be the Giants serious offer, $40M-$42M including a signing bonus.

Obviously the Giants know that while this offer isn’t a slap in the face, it’s also incredibly low. Even with the security it provides, I still wouldn’t take that over arbitration when he can potentially earn that much during arbitration anyway or more. Lets say if he went year to year, he’d end up earning somewhere between $60-80MM for those 4 years of service time if he stays healthy. I think a lower offer that saves the Giants money but gets Lincy close to what he could get in arbitration would be suitable. Say, 4 years/$56MM. Just an idea.

Everybody keeps talking about how he is worth $20 million… and he would be, if he was a free agent. He’s not. You know how much Pujols was making at the same stage of his career? $4 million. And that was coming off three years that probably would have netted him 2 MVPs if Bonds wasn’t in the league. Now, Pujols never went to arbitration and that was part of a long term deal but it is a reminder that this is how arbitration works. Lincecum is not supposed to get his free agent value, otherwise why even have the idea of team control and arbitration to begin with?

this deal will get done today. Neither party wants to go to arbitration and have the possibility of bad blood between them. The Giants honestly don’t have the money to spend right now. Its a good deal for both parties as it stands. They’ll settle at around 39 million and once Rowand, Renteria and Zito are off the books, they can put together a better deal. This is assuming Timmy’s still healthy and pitching as well as he has. I’m not too worried about that not being the case.

The bad blood, my friend, is already there. And both parties are partially responsible. The Giants initially insisted on lowballing an offer, but it’s somewhat understandable. Still, the guy deserves a significant raise. Now it seems that Lincecum’s primary goal, as Tim says, is to surpass “Howard’s first-year arbitration figure.” Lincecum is going to end hurting his image.

Bad blood? What reports have you been reading? Lincecum is handling this the right way… letting his agent do his job which lets him focus on baseball. He seems to have a good understanding of the business and doesnt let it get to him, or at least doesnt show it. At the end of the day he’s a Giant for 4 more seasons and he genuinely seems to like playing with the group of guys he’s playing with so I see this being resolved before the hearing with something around 3/45 which may even be a “hometown discount” considering he’d probably make more just going year to year in arbitration if he thinks his health and performance from the last two seasons can be sustained.

Like Joe said, this is arbitration not FA negotiations. The entire point of arbitration was to keep salaries in check for players under team control – not skyrocket them as high as they can possibly go while the free-agent market plummets. Now arbitration is awarding mediocre players 2-3 times what they would make on the open market, and in turn the stars are threatening to get astronomical amounts rivaling the bigger contracts given out any off season.

In fact, if the arbitration panel somehow awards Tim 13 MM, he will have signed the 4th highest AAV amount of any player this offseason. That while being in only his first arbitration year! It’s foolish.

Honestly if he is so insistent on that kind of money this early in his career, the Giants should tell him “nice knowing you”. Every couple years there is a Lincecum comparable taking the world by storm, and the percentage of those pitchers who actually go on to have amazing careers is extremely low. He insists on ace-level free-agent type money over his arbitration seasons, fine pay him whatever the case rewards then trade him during the season. The player return will outweigh the limited benefits of paying Tim that kind of salary while hoping he is one of very few pitchers to actually have an amazing career after a fast start.

Way too many Tim Lincecum comparables have fallen off the face of the earth to pay him a dollar amount approaching peak-value over years which should be paying him something rather minimal. Better to save your money, move on and see if you can sucker a team like Boston to give you Buchholz, Westmoreland and a another player or two – the Giants future would be brighter.

A pitcher like Lincecum does not come along every couple of years. That is an insane statement. He is one of those types of pitchers that comes along once in a great while and the Giants will be dumb not to lock him up long term. But like I said before. That’s fine with me as I want to see him in a Mariners uniform.

Anyway, one is Tim from 2007-09 at the ages of 23-25, and the other is Ismeal Valdez from 1995-97 at the ages of 21-23. I’ll let you figure out which is which

Really, there are countless instances like this throughout history and they just get forgotten because the players dont live up to the unbelievable hype, fell apart completely in the following season or two, played when the internet wasnt as common as it is now, played on teams which werent covered as much, or many other reasons.

Lincecum leaving will depend on a number of issue’s most likely cash and/or winning, not anything said in a arbitration hearing. The pot thing is a negative to his reputation. Probably hurting jersey and ticket sales some. The only argument the Giants have is he would be the highest paid pitcher in arbitration history at 8M.