Monday, June 18, 2012

As mentioned last week, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is going into the favorable (rising air) mode for tropical development for the next 10-20 days. Models continue to hint something will start to form over the Western Caribbean/Yucatan Channel on Wednesday and shift into the Gulf on Thursday. Where it goes from there will determine what kind of weekend we'll have. IF the system heads to the north & then turns NE, we'll stay on the dry side with the Florida getting most of the rainfall. However, IF it goes to the west towards Texas, we'll get on the wet side by late Friday much like what happened here early on Father's Day. That could make for a wet Saturday into Sunday depending on how fast or slow it moves. The weather bloggers are going nuts over this. Currently there is an upper trough over the Gulf making for a hostile environment. Development should be slow if at all. Stay tuned!