Welcome to Rio Gringa! I cover Brazil from an outsider's perspective. I'm a New Yorker who lived in Brazil, married a Brazilian, and now live in the U.S. But I'm still watching Brazil from afar, and from the ground when I can. Here's my story. Feel free to sign the guestbook, or learn how to contact me. You can also find me on Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr.

December 29, 2016

In Brazil, you hear the word "deserve" a lot. "You deserve it" (você merece) is a means of congratulations and "nobody deserves that" (ninguém merece) is a common lament. In Netflix's new Brazilian series "3%" only the most "deserving" are chosen through a rigorous series of tests to live on an island apart from the squalor in which the 97 percent toil.

Though Brazilians like to think you get what you deserve, that's hasn't usually been true when it comes to the country's wealthiest and most powerful. But this year was a different story.

Eduardo Cunha, former Chamber of Deputies president, after his arrest. (Agencia Brasil/Creative Commons)

Traditionally, Brazil's one-percenters have enjoyed impunity and the ability to get away with murder -- literally. So in the last two years, to witness CEOs and governors and legislators get hauled off to prison has truly been a sight to behold, thanks to the sweeping Carwash investigation and similar anti-corruption operations. To see Eduardo Cunha -- the disgraced and reviled former head of the Chamber of Deputies -- get taken away by police was a moment of glee and relief for many Brazilians.

Normally, Brazil's all-powerful might initially face consequences but as they say in Brazil, matters involving justice for the powerful often "end in pizza," in which they get off scot-free. There's still a chance that could happen with those involved in Carwash, but a lot of damage has been done already.

At the same time, the Brazilian people have been wielding their power. There are many reasons for Dilma's downfall, and the legal reasoning behind her impeachment was flimsy at best. But public support for her impeachment during an economic downturn was a key factor. Plus, her administration's sluggish and half-assed reaction to large-scale protests in 2013 marked the beginning of her political demise, when it was clear the people were fundamentally unhappy with the country's direction.

Now, with the highly unpopular former vice president is in power, the government is learning to be more sensitive to the populace. The new president asked his name not be announced at the Olympics opening ceremony to avoid boos (he was booed anyway), and earlier this month avoided a public wake for the soccer team killed in a plane crash for fear of booing. This week, after the presidential palace announced a R$1.75 million contract for snacks on the presidential plane, immediate backlash forced the government to cancel the contract the same day.

That said, things aren't great in Brazil at the moment. The man who replaced Dilma is a shadowy old-school politician nicknamed a "horror movie butler." Political institutions are in disarray, the economy's a mess, crime is bad, some of the richest states are bankrupt, and that Olympic legacy sure as hell isn't panning out. But with the crows are coming home to roost for the country's most powerful thanks to anti-corruption probes, those who were untouchable aren't anymore, and for that reason Brazil offers some hope in the midst of a grim global reality.

It's been a terrifying year around the world, watching those rise to power or keep an iron grip on it. There's Trump, and the burgeoning popularity of his far-right counterparts in Europe. Putin gleefully pulled the strings on pro-Trump propaganda. Assad's still in power as millions have died in Syria's brutal war. Venezuela's Maduro, a modern-day Nero, dances salsa on TV while his country burns to the ground. The Philippines' Duterte, a popularly elected president, is carrying out an extermination against his own people.

So given what's happening around the world, Brazil gives me hope. During a difficult, turbulent time, Brazil's power structure is shifting and impunity is no longer the rule. The concept of accountability, a word that doesn't exist in Portuguese, is slowly becoming more of a reality. Thanks to social media and technology like Whatsapp, constituents are forcing the government to pay more attention to their desires and to be more transparent. Some of the country's corrupt still haven't had to face the music, and things might still end in pizza for those who have. But things are changing, bit by bit.

July 31, 2016

Me in the Wynwood art district of Miami with Brazilian artist Cranio's work.

The Rio Olympics are nearly here and I haven't written anything on the blog. Here's why.

In May, I started a new full-time job at Univision as a reporter, editor and translator. I'm covering Brazil, but also many other things, including Latinos and the U.S. election, and it's been very busy. I haven't had much time or mental space to write other than at work and occasionally on Twitter.

At the end of June, I moved from New York to Miami with my husband, a process that was extraordinarily stressful and long (it took a month for our furniture to arrive, which is another story for another time). I'm only beginning to feel adjusted, and just barely.

So I haven't had much time for much writing.

Until I figure out how to build the blog back into my schedule, here's how you can follow my work on Brazil:

May 02, 2016

Brazilians don't want history to repeat itself, but no one's coming to the rescue to turn things around.

The circus/impeachment vote in Brazil's lower house on April 17. Photo: PRB Nacional/Creative Commons

Two dead bodies lay on the beach in Rio de Janeiro, as beachgoers play soccer and walk by, unfazed. It’s hard to shock a Carioca. The two men had died when a nearly four-month-old bike path — built by a company under scrutiny for shoddy engineering and possible corruption — collapsed after getting hit by a strong wave, sending the two Cariocas into the sea and to their deaths.

This, in a state that's now so broke that it's stopped paying pensioners and has delayed salaries for half a million public-sector workers, leading dozens of categories of professionals to go on strike, from police to doctors. That also includes teachers, meaning around 50,000 students in the state are out of class — while at the same time, a movement is spreading with students occupying 65 schools to protest the abominable state of public education.

This, in a state where in the favelas, even in the so-called "pacified" ones, gun violence rages on, and sometimes spills over into the city's wealthy neighborhoods. Muggings are still a part of life. The picturesque Baía de Guanabara is still filled with sewage and garbage, as disgusting as ever after authorities failed on their promises, for the umpteenth time, to clean it up.

This, in the Olympic City less than 100 days away from the games. Is this the Rio of the 1990s, or 2016?

Rio's broken promises and local crises are a microcosm of what’s happening throughout the country, as an economic and political crisis makes Brazil’s current situation seem in some ways like a blast from the past. Another impeachment, another bust after the boom.

And that’s what’s helping drive the partisan divide, an underlying current in the impeachment debate. Many Brazilians are terrified to go back to the way things were. (That excludes some in the elite and a minority who support military rule who wouldn't mind going back to how things used to be.)

In the political realm, both members of the government and opposition are now using the word “coup” to describe scenarios that would hurt them: impeachment and new elections, respectively.

The word “golpe” is a loaded term in Brazil and evokes the military dictatorship that ruled the country from 1964–1985. It brings to mind torture, disappearances, and censorship. It also evokes media manipulation that helped support the dictatorship, and with today’s media bias, some argue not much has changed in that particular area.

Impeachment isn’t a new concept in Brazil’s relatively young democracy — there was a presidential impeachment in the 1990s — but by framing the debate in this manner, it fires people up, especially on the left.

On the other hand, many Brazilians don’t want to go back to a time when corruption flourished with impunity, when there was no accountability, when politicians could literally get away with murder. Arguably, corruption is still a major problem, but between the mensalão trial, the Car Wash investigation, and new transparency and corruption-fighting measures, there’s hope things are improving, if slowly.

Another fear is that of poverty and economic decline. Candidates and political flacks fed the fear of regression during the last election, which have persisted during the impeachment process. The government stoked fears that the opposition would eliminate social programs and hurt the poor. (Ironically, the economic crisis forced that same government to cut or reduce some of those programs.) Bolsa Familia, the most important program, is still intact, but the government claims the opposition will do away with it if Dilma is impeached.

Meanwhile, riding the wave of anti-corruption excitement, some in the opposition marketed themselves as the “patriotic choice” during the last election. So did those lawmakers who support impeachment — they framed a yes vote as the patriotic thing to do, alleging a route for change, for moving ahead.

So with the slow-motion implosion of the country’s institutions and economy, there’s a fear that Brazil is cursed to repeat its past. And that’s not an unreasonable fear.

While poverty decreased in the last decade, bringing millions into the new middle class, the crisis is sending millions back into poverty. There’s already talk of another so-called “lost decade,” with the recession predicted to continue.

Zika is getting all the headlines, but Brazil is also battling a dengue epidemic and a swine flu outbreak; both disease are more likely to kill those infected. Several states are broke, not just Rio, and more could follow. The pre-salt oil bonanza hasn't quite come to fruition, especially given low oil prices and the scandal rocking Petrobras.

While the country’s distracted by the impeachment process, Congress is pushing controversial legislation, from trying to roll back the country’s landmark net neutrality law to literally attempting to abolish environmental compliance for public works.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. This time, it was supposed to be different.

There’s a tired trope that Brazil is the country of the future. But in the early 2000s, after Lula was elected to office and the country stood poised to ride the commodities boom, there was a sense that change was here to stay: economic growth, institutional stability, millions leaving poverty, and Brazil as a global player. It seemed like maybe, just maybe, this time Brazil would finally break the cycle. Now, maybe Brazil would be a so-called “serious country.”**

On the surface, like a fresh coat of paint, it looked like positive change was there to stay. But underneath, in the foundation, some things stayed the same. Especially politics.

As Brazil’s late rock star Cazuza once sang: “Eu vejo o futuro repetir o passado/Eu vejo um museu de grandes novidades/O tempo não para.” [“I see the future repeating the past. I see a museum of great novelties. Time doesn’t stop.”]*

So who can stop history from repeating itself?

That's the problem with the political crisis, and Brazilian politics in general. There is no truly new leadership waiting in the wings, and like zombies, even the most reviled politicians often come back.

Surveys show that a majority of Brazilians support impeachment, but a majority also support getting rid of Vice President Michel Temer, who will take over if the president is removed from office. Eduardo Cunha, the man third in line of succession, is under investigation on multiple corruption charges, and is widely hated by the Brazilian public, yet is still holding on as president of the lower house of Congress. The fourth in line, Renan Calheiros, has come under fire for corruption multiple times, yet is still somehow president of the Senate.

Given these realities, a survey found that more than 60 percent of Brazilians support new elections as a solution to the crisis.

The desire for new elections is also understandable after the embarrassing display in Congress broadcast live last month, when representatives from the Chamber of Deputies cast their votes for impeachment with singing, spitting, confetti cannons, and a long list of reasons that had nothing to do with the charges against the president. Plus, around 60 percent of members of Congress face charges of their own, ranging from corruption to even homicide.

But with no new political class, who could not only rescue the country from the abyss, but also really bring about change? And this doesn’t just include the presidency, but Congress, too. And without political reform, how can the system really change?

The answer is that new elections would likely bring many of the usual suspects. After all, some of the country’s most corrupt or disgraced politicians still grace the houses of Congress — including the president impeached in the 1990s and a politician wanted by Interpol, among others.

In the latest polls for a potential 2018 presidential race, the top names in contention are Lula (who already served two terms and whose reputation took a hit during the current crisis), Marina Silva (who lost in the last presidential election), Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (a far right-wing politician with a neo-Nazi flair), Aécio Neves (who narrowly lost the last presidential election and stands accused of several corruption charges), and Geraldo Alckmin (governor of São Paulo whose approval rating is around 30 percent).

So this month we’re likely to see Temer, a typical, old-school politician — sometimes described as the butler from a horror movie — take over during the trial phase of impeachment. That means one of the country’s most reviled politicians will become VP, unless the Supreme Court intervenes. Meanwhile, Congress continues to chip away at progress, one bill at a time.

They say you get the government you deserve. But as Brazilians say, ninguém merece. Nobody deserves this.

**O Brasil não é um país sério, or Brazil isn’t a serious country, is a phrase Brazilians throw around when they get down on their country. It's often wrongly attributed to French President Charles de Gaulle, but it originally came from a Brazilian: Carlos Alves de Souza Filho, Brazil’s ambassador to France from 1956 to 1964. The diplomat uttered the phrase during an informal, off-the-record discussion with de Gaulle in Paris, and a Brazilian journalist in the room wrote down the now infamous saying. It’s also symbolic of the so-called “mutt complex” in which Brazilians are super critical of their homeland, but are also sensitive to foreigners who voice those same critiques.

March 24, 2016

As Brazil's political crisis continues, it's not always easy to find level-headed, middle-of-the-road analysis. So it's useful to find a smart breakdown of the ideological divide with some cold, hard data. It's difficult to get a complete picture on the country's divisions amid a fast-moving and complex situation; this article offers some insight and food for thought.

"They want to get rid of Dilma to stop the Car Wash investigation." "It wasn't for 20 cents. It's not for the government. It's for democracy."

Writing for Piauí, Malu Gaspar explains what surveys show about the country's political polarization. The following excerpts are translated from the original Portuguese.

"Datafolha surveys conducted during the pro- and anti-government protests show that there were in fact differences between the two groups. Among the pro-impeachment demonstrators, 37 percent earned more than ten times the minimum wage; among Dilma's supporters, 24 percent had this same salary. During the anti-government protests, 12 percent were businesspeople. In the pro-Dilma protests, 15 percent were civil servants. However, in both protests, close to 80 percent of the demonstrators had a college education, around 30 percent had formal-sector jobs, and more than half earned more than 5 times the minimum wage. Which led to the conclusion that on both sides, those who were in the streets were a significant part of the elite," she wrote.

Another survey by Data Popular asked Brazilians from the so-called C class (new middle class) and the D and E classes (the country's poorest) why they didn't go to the protests - neither for nor against the government.

"Data Popular found that the poorest didn't go to the demonstrations because, first, they consider them 'a rich people thing.' Next, it's because they are total nonbelievers in political parties and the political system, and they don't think that Dilma Rousseff's fall would bring radical changes to the social and economic landscape," she adds.

But as it turns out, impeachment isn't something that divides the political classes as much as one might think.

"'The same proportion of people support impeachment in all social classes. But the reasons each group wants impeachment are diametrically opposed,' says Renato Meirelles, president of Data Popular. 'Brazilians are much less divided about impeachment than they are about the future of the country.' According to Meirelles, the C class is much more upset about the shrinking of government benefits - like Bolsa Família, Minha Casa Minha Vida, Prouni, and Pronatec - than about corruption.

'For them, Dilma has to go because she hasn't delivered on her campaign promises and she hasn't managed to expand these benefits.' This group, therefore, defends an efficient but provider state - which Meirelles calls a 'vigorous state' - while the completely opposite thing happens with those from wealthier social strata. 'In general, the richest 20 percent want a downsized state.' And it's this point where the ideological divide really matters, and it's this issue that the country will have to deal with after the impeachment impasse is resolved. Since the Brazilian government is broke and cuts are inevitable, the unavoidable collision will be traumatic."

Data Popular also found that Brazilians had very few ideas about potential leaders who could take on the crisis.

"In January, Data Popular asked 3,500 people of all social classes if they could name one person capable of getting the country out of the crisis - 89 percent said they couldn't think of a name. Of the 11 percent who did identify someone, the majority cited Pope Francis."

March 20, 2016

Several times in the past week, I've sat down to attempt to write about Brazil's political crisis. But it's gotten so complex and so complicated that I'm at a loss. The polarization, divisiveness and anger have hit a level I haven't seen since the 2014 election, and have actually gotten worse. Plus, things are changing so quickly - day to day, even hour to hour - that it's even hard to keep up.

So I decided to do what I could: try to get a grasp on what what's happening. I put together a guide with a timeline of major eventsday by day, along with primary sources. (I decided not to republish it here so I don't have to update it every day in two places, so be sure to follow it on Medium.) I've also been tracking the latest news on Twitter.

Even Brian Winter, one of the foremost political analysts on Brazil, had trouble tackling the crisis. (What he did end up writing is really helpful in understanding what's ahead.)

The crisis isn't totally unexpected. The 2013 protests were a sign of much deeper problems than just the economic ones happening now, and the 2014 election revealed partisan polarization that has only gotten worse. Last year's anti-government protests were a continuation of that polarization. And meanwhile, opposition politicians have been itchy to impeach the president. But the last few weeks have been like a slow-motion political implosion.

The president made a major blunder in appointing Lula to her cabinet; the optics alone were terrible, and she's lost some of her last shreds of credibility. Lula shouldn't have accepted the appointment; his Teflon leadership abilities may not last the crisis. By releasing wiretaps, Judge Sérgio Moro politicized the Car Wash corruption investigation; the case could derail or not be as successful in nabbing a wider range of actors. And the impeachment process is in full gear again, and there are so many bad apples in the line of succession that any impeachment scenario is scary.

From a personal perspective, it's been upsetting to watch. While it's nice to see people politically engaged, especially some who aren't usually interested, it's not often a pretty sight. People are at each others' throats - mostly figuratively, but sometimes literally - and there's often little room for middle ground. It's hard to have a conversation about the crisis on social media; even just sharing news about Brazilian politics carries a risk of arguments or worse.

From a policy perspective, it's also depressing. The credibility of the country's major institutions is in question, when Brazil used to be a shining example of democratic stability. And Zika and the recession aren't helping. This was supposed to be Brazil's year, a chance to shine in the international spotlight again.

I've never quite been at a loss in writing about Brazil since I started nine years ago. The only thing to do now is wait and see what happens.

February 16, 2016

Brazilians are voracious consumers of online content and power users of social media, so when an article or video really takes off in Brazil, it can become a cultural phenomenon or a national conversation. That happened last week when an American self-help writer penned a bilingual open letter to Brazil, a hotly controversial mike drop of sorts as he returns home after four years in Rio.

"Why is Brazil so screwed up?" he writes. "You are the problem. Yes, you reading this, you are the problem. I’m sure you don’t mean to be, but you are actively participating in the problem and perpetuating it. Every day." And then he proceeds to explain this theory about why all Brazilians are to blame for their problems in brutally honest (if not particularly well written) detail. "You are fucked," he writes.

Brazilians, needless to say, went bananas.

A well-known entrepreneur responded in a 16-minute video which also went viral. Others were inspired to pen their own open letters to Manson, like a tech writer who wrote: "Your letter says more about you and your beliefs than it does about our country." A friend of mine joked he was going to write an open letter to the United States; another wrote a political analysis about the reaction to the letter.

Manson already had a large following, which helped boost the article's circulation to tends of thousands of shares. He also published the letter at a particularly rough time for Brazil, under international scrutiny for the Zika outbreak, a suffering economy, and a big corruption scandal ahead of the Olympics.

But he's not the first and he won't be the last gringo to go viral by hating on Brazil. Having written my fair share of critical pieces on Brazil, particularly while I was living there, I've also found this to be true.

When a foreigner writes an excoriating critique of Brazil - or even just a negative view - there's a good chance of the piece taking off.

The Danish journalist in question. This is a whole other story for another time.

Let's look at a few actual headlines from the past few years. All but the first are from major news outlets.

And so on. In a similar vein, Brazil's largest media outlets often report when an important foreign publication (The New York Times, Financial Times, The Economist) writes a big story about Brazil.

This hypersensitivity to criticism by foreigners is part of what's called the complexo de vira-latas, or mutt complex. Conceived by Nelson Rodrigues, the country's most famous playwright and a keen observer of Brazilian culture, the idea originated after the country's humiliating 1950 World Cup loss. Rodrigues defined the mutt complex as "the inferiority in which Brazilians voluntarily place themselves in front of the rest of the world...The problem is faith in oneself." This was true of soccer, but also of a much larger spectrum, from an economy going through boom and busts, hyperinflation, poverty, and yet another excruciating World Cup defeat on home turf in 2014. This might seem strange for a country as big and powerful as Brazil, but this phenomenon has proved the test of time.

Another piece of the mutt complex is endless self-criticism. It comes up in everyday conversations in a serious manner, but it's also addressed through dark humor as something of a coping mechanism. Particularly on social media, this means a lot of jokes about the country's problems. "Brazil's internet culture is very, maybe particularly, fond of turning national trauma into a source of endless humor and ironic celebration," writes LA Times correspondent Vincent Bevins.

In other words, some Brazilians talk and joke endlessly about the country's problems, but aren't so thrilled when foreigners take the same critical eye they do.

So if you're a foreign writer looking to get your name out in Brazil, the quickest way is to go negative. Just don't expect to make many friends.

I checked in with several Brazil-based experts - including political scientist Mauricio Santoro, Rio blogger Julia Michaels, and AP journalist Mauricio Savarese - and did research of my own. Beyond the Olympics and the impeachment process, here are the issues to watch in 2016.

Corruption scandals: The Petrobras corruption scandal never seems to end, while Operation Zelotes has ensnared Lula's son and major corporations. The evolution of these scandals, or potentially new ones, will have a big impact on the political crisis, and even the economy.

Eduardo Cunha's fate: A major player in the impeachment proceedings, the lower house speaker is accused of a host of corruption charges. He's in danger of losing his position, and even potentially of getting arrested. If he goes down, other powerful politicians involved in corruption scandals could follow.

PMDB convention: In March, the centrist party just barely holding the president's coalition together will meet. There are major rifts in the party over whether to support impeachment with different players jockeying for power - including the vice president. The convention will determine how this powerful party positions itself.

Municipal elections: Voting for mayors and local officials takes place in October. This is the first election during which corporate campaign financing is banned after a 2015 Supreme Court decision. It's sure to change the dynamics of the campaign trail and the process overall. The election will also be a litmus test for the parties that best weather the political crisis, and will be a preview of what's to come in 2018, when presidential elections take place.

Protests: Will history repeat itself? This month, a violent protest over transportation fares took place in São Paulo (sound familiar?). And last year, right-leaning protests calling for the president's ouster took place, which could continue into this year, as could the counter pro-Dilma demonstrations. Protests about police violence are another possibility, especially in Rio and São Paulo. The Olympics could spark a new round of mega-event demonstrations. And with the economic and political crisis in full swing, Brazilians have even more to demonstrate about than in 2013. Protests may not just impact the Olympics, but the impeachment process, too.

Budget crises: The economic downturn, the Petrobras scandal, and the declining price of oil have meant bad news for state and local governments. Last year, a debt crisis rocked Rio Grande do Sul, one of the country's wealthiest states, and Rio de Janeiro is currently facing a major public health system crisis. In Minas Gerais, state public employees are threatening to go on strike after the government announced salaries for the first three months of the year would be delayed. How and where these debt crises play out will be important, as well as how they affect important services like health and education.

The value of the real: In 2015, the real fell to its lowest level in two decades, close to R$4 to the dollar. It's affecting the economy and it's made it harder for Brazilians to travel abroad. Will the currency continue a downward trajectory or will it bounce back?

Rio security: The Olympics will mean the city goes into mega-event mode, which usually means it is temporarily safer. In the aftermath of Paris, there will also be more high-level security measures in place to address terrorism concerns. The controversial pacification process is ongoing, and it's worth keeping an eye on police brutality cases in favelas, particularly "pacified" ones.