May 28, 2008

It takes more than good goaltending to win the Stanley Cup. In fact one might say it takes everything except goaltending. Detroit has gotten where they are with great team defense and great offense. Pittsburgh will need a lot of luck and hard work to win this series. Also, keep in mind that the west is better than the east. And the numbers below should convince any doubters that Detroit will should this series.

DET

PIT

Winner

Even Strength

GF

2.66

2.52

EGF

2.64

2.61

GA

1.83

2.15

EGA

1.71

2.47

SV%

89.3%

91.3%

Power Play

GF

8.46

6.67

EGF

8.69

6.16

GA

0.61

0.71

EGA

0.59

0.74

SV%

88.8%

89.5%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.66 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 7.98 and the Pittsburgh Penguins have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.89. So 7.98*6.89/6.5=8.46 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.