re: Official TS Debby Thread (Posted on 6/21/12 at 6:34 pm to GeorgeTheGreek)

Early models suggst it will at least become a tropical depression by this weekend/early next week.

It is also forecasted to possibly linger in the GOM. A trough is going to move thru the area and it was expected to push this storm over Florida now models suggest it will not be strong enough to move this Invest... Should get interesting by Sunday

re: Official TS Debby Thread (Posted on 6/21/12 at 6:58 pm to MsGarrison)

GFS model takes it east over Florida before really developing. Other models say it won't get picked-up east, and will linger in the Gulf, develop, and move west to Texas.

quote: By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.