David Carr: NFL about to get wild – watch out for Miami and Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston is taking better care of the football and has the Buccaneers on a roll. He has thrown 14 touchdown passes with only three interceptions in the past six games. In the first four games this season, he had eight touchdown passes and eight interceptions.
Phelan M. EbenhackThe Associated Press

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins are on a six-game winning streak headed down the stretch of the NFL season. Tannehill has thrown nine touchdown passes and only one interception during the winning streak, including three TDs on Sunday in a 31-24 victory over the 49ers.
Al DiazTNS

Jeffrey Lare submitted last week’s question that was answered by David Carr: If you were a starting quarterback today, what team’s offense would you want to run and why if you were going up against your brother and the Raiders? Each week, David will answer one reader’s question in this column – and that lucky reader will receive an NFL football signed by David. Post your question as a comment on the column at www.fresnobee.com/sports/nfl. Everyone who poses a question to David this season will be entered in a season-ending drawing – and the winner gets a personal appearance with David at a 2017 Fresno-area event.

A lot will happen over the next five weeks, but there are two teams that no NFL team in playoff contention will want to play down the stretch and no division winner would want to match up against in the wild-card round.

One is from the AFC and one is from the NFC – and both are from Florida: Miami and Tampa Bay.

There was a point this season that both appeared headed nowhere, but look at them now, and it’s going to be fun to see how they end up.

It might not happen this year, but I kind of look at both of them like the Raiders last year with how they finished and beat Denver late in the season. Maybe Miami or Tampa Bay beats a team that’s on its way to the Super Bowl and next year you roll in and you look at them as teams that are going to be competing for division titles.

The Dolphins (7-4) just don’t have any weakness right now with the way their offensive line is playing. Early on, you’d look at Miami and think, “Man, is this Adam Gase experience just a waste of time? Is Ryan Tannehill going to be the quarterback? What are they doing here?” Then all of a sudden the offensive line gets healthy, they find a spot for Laremy Tunsil and these guys start pounding the rock. Jay Ajayi goes on a record run for a couple of weeks and their defense starts to pick it up.

Miami is playing lights-out right now – six wins in a row. You have to feel good about Gase in his first season as a head coach. Tannehill doesn’t have a lot of experience, but the one thing he does have is a good play caller in Gase.

If the Dolphins or Bucs can keep it together and do make it, watch out. It could be a lot like the Giants in 2007 when we won the Super Bowl. We were hot, the defense was playing well (just like Tampa Bay and Miami) and we got in there and went all the way. It wouldn’t be the first time it has happened, and if people tell you it can’t happen, they’re crazy.

David Carr

Early on, Tannehill wasn’t making a lot of plays down the field, but really over the last half of the season, he has made some huge throws, a lot like what Cam Newton did last year for Carolina. The difference between Newton this year and last year is the ability to hit the big play when you need it – and Tannehill has done that. Now, he’s not to the level Newton was last year (we’ll probably never see that again), but he has hit some big throws down the field, and I think that’s why this offense has taken off.

Tampa Bay (6-5) offensively is kind of the opposite, but wide receiver Mike Evans has become one of the better players in the league, and defensively the Buccaneers are playing maybe better than Miami. I know it’s hard for a receiver to be in the MVP conversation, but every time I watch Evans, he’s making plays on guys. He doesn’t care if it’s Richard Sherman or whoever comes down. He’s finding ways to get open. He’s more physical than those guys. He’s just a raw talent, and it has been fun to see him develop.

Jameis Winston has been playing really well, starting with not turning over the football. That has been a bit of a weakness early in his career. There was early, early MVP talk, and then he started to turn over the ball, but lately he hasn’t. He has 14 touchdown passes and only three interceptions over the past seven games. I think he’s starting to grow up a little bit and realize that if he doesn’t turn over the ball, the Buccaneers are good enough to score points and their defense can flat-out play. They’re right there as well.

I know it’s hard for a receiver to be in the MVP conversation, but every time I watch Mike Evans he’s making plays on guys. He doesn’t care if it’s Richard Sherman or whoever comes down. He’s finding ways to get open.

David Carr

If you’re looking at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NFC, you really would not to play Tampa Bay. Before Seattle went down there last week, we were all talking about the Seahawks as the team to beat – Russell Wilson is healthy now and moving around better, and Seattle’s defense is always lights-out.

If the Dolphins or Bucs can keep it together and do make it, watch out. It could be a lot like the Giants in 2007 when we won the Super Bowl. We were hot, the defense was playing well (just like Tampa Bay and Miami) and we got in there and went all the way. It wouldn’t be the first time it has happened, and if people tell you it can’t happen, they’re crazy.

In eight of the past 10 years, at least one wild-card team has knocked off a division winner. Seven wild-card teams have made it to a conference championship game and two have won Super Bowls: the Giants in ’07 and the Packers in ’10.

Last season, all four wild-card teams won that first weekend of the playoffs.

You can play as well as you want in the middle of the season, but you have to get hot at the right time, and right now those two teams are definitely there.

Question of the week

From Sal Carrillo: We often hear of coaches being blamed and fired for failing teams. But with all of the sub-par and underperforming teams in the NFL, maybe they need to fire some general managers. What really is the role of the general manager and how much influence does he represent in an NFL team’s organization?

Any GM is going to wear a lot of hats and do a lot of different things. But what you want is a guy who is going to recognize when he has a good team and is going to try to make some moves to get that team in position to win, and then on top of that really be tight with the head coach and understand what kind of team he’s trying to build and get players to fit that system.

A lot of times you see a coach who wants control of what happens, wants control of that final 53-man roster and the guys being brought in. That’s why Bill Parcells said, “They want you to cook the dinner, at least they should let you shop for the groceries.” I can’t imagine having players brought to you and being told, “This kid is getting paid a certain amount of money and you have to play him.” Well, what if he doesn’t fit a role? Then you’re stuck as a head coach and that’s when all the fighting happens. That’s when coaches get fired. That’s when general managers get fired. They have to speak the same language. That’s why Chip Kelly wanted all that control there in Philadelphia and a guy like Mike Shanahan, that’s why he wanted that for so long, He knew the system he wanted to run – it was West Coast, but it had some hybrid elements. Offensively he knew the type of player he wanted to play tight end or H-back. He knew what type of running back he wanted. I think there’s something to be said for that.

Talent evaluation is key, but for the most part they’re all good players. I think what is more important than that is fit evaluation. You see guys all the time who will go to teams and for whatever reason it doesn’t work, and they go to another squad and they play great and you’re like, “I thought this guy wasn’t any good.” It’s not necessarily the player. It’s the fit and it’s the guys around him. Look at New England. The Patriots will grab a quarterback and play him at another position. Julian Edelman, they identified him early on, and he wasn’t a first-round pick. But he was their guy, and he has played great for them. They just have a way of doing that – bringing guys in who are going to fit in their system and be good football players. It’s a tough deal to find.

David Carr is a former Fresno State quarterback, NFL No. 1 draft pick and Super Bowl champion. Now he’s an analyst for the NFL Network and writing a weekly column in collaboration with The Bee’s Robert Kuwada. The column is sponsored by Valley Children’s Hospital.

Win a football autographed by David Carr

Each week, David will answer one reader’s question in this column – and that lucky reader will receive an NFL football signed by David. Post your question as a comment on the column at www.fresnobee.com/sports/nfl.

Year-end bonus

Everyone who poses a question to David this season will be entered in a season-ending drawing – and the winner gets a personal appearance with David at a 2017 Fresno-area event.

David Carr is a former Fresno State quarterback, NFL No. 1 draft pick and Super Bowl champion who now serves as an analyst for the NFL Network.