Friday, December 21, 2007 CE

The Cyclic Nature of Nature. Dying and Rebirth, Essentials for Invincibility

The Cyclic Nature of Nature.

Dying and Rebirth, Essentials for Invincibility.

The quest to understand the nature’s phenomena started the moment in which the first spark of conscience was lit in the evolving animal brain. This spark eventually led to the fire that illuminated the minds of the ones who have changed how we see the world. This spark was generated probably some millions years ago and, I am sure, did not lit a fire instantaneously. In millions of years, the fire grew in slow motion. Slow motion for us, of course, since we have such ephemeral lives. The light provided by the growing fire was sufficient for humans to realize that things come and go. The day, the night, the moon, the stars, the greenness of the trees, the whiteness of the snow, they all make a come back after leaving us for a while.

Some cyclic phenomena are more subtle and require more illumination. One of those is the cycle of daylight duration throughout the year. It took millions of years for the animal brains to figure out that there will be a shortest and a longest day, and a shortest and longest night. The durations of day and night changed slowly day after day. By trial and error and by the use of shadows and brighter light, the longest day and night were pinpointed and served as anchors for the development of calendars.

The Sun, the bearer of light, the bearer of heat and other electromagnetic waves for this planet, is also the bearer of life. If something gives us life it is logical to consider that something with some respect, just like a progenitor. Unlike us, progenitors and progeny at the same time, the Sun comes and goes, not only in 24 hour cycles but in longer cycles. After the longest night of the year, when it seems that the Sun will eventually fade away, it returns stronger and stronger, showing that impending death was momentarily. Soon, the empowered Sun is able to bring back the green, the bird and the food.

Invincibility, the ability to never be conquered, the capacity to make a come back when hope is fading, is a quality that our Sun posesses. Even now, when our minds have been lit up so much that we know that in a couple billion years, hydrogen for the nuclear fusion reactions that power our Sun will deplete and reach a terminal decline, for our minuscule duration and importance, our Sun is invincible.

Sunday, December 16, 2007 CE

Here is my comment about the article "How Should We Be Thinking About Urbanization? A Freakonomics Quorum" in the Freakononomics-Opinion section of the New York Times. The article was posted on December 11, 2007. My comment is number 54.

There is a period of transition waiting for us. How is the transition going to be? I depends on us. It could be organized, gentle and civilized if the nations agree that we have to reduce our numbers, our toxic emissions and our use of energy. It could be tumultous, tragic and apocalyptic if we deny the realities of physics and geology, if we believe in growth-economics as a dogma and if we selfishly decide not to proceed as a community.— Posted by Dr Marco

Sunday, December 02, 2007 CE

Monitoring Peak Oil Number 7

World Total Liquids Production -October 2007: 86.43 millions of barrels per day (mbpd).

This is the record production so far. The only way we can say we are not at peak is if we see a continuous production increase in the following months and years. It is important to realize that the most important issue is the supply and demand relationship. If demands keeps rising faster than supply it would not matter if we are at peak or not, the prices of oil will continue to rise.

The other issue that I want to bring to the attention of my readers is that the crude and condensate (C&C) production peak occured in May 2005 and there are no signs that the record will be broken. So, what is the difference between C&C and total liquids? Total liquids include the following: Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), ethanol, biomass to liquids (BTL), coal to liquids (CTL), gas to liquids (GTL) and processing gains. The increase in the non C&C liquid production has avoided a total peak so far.

Still the relationship between supply and demand does not look good for the 4th quarter of 2007 and the 1st quarter of 2008.