This is a discussion on $25NL 6-max: Float light 3-bettor/donk OTB, flops bottom pair, plan for hand? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villain is a 40/13/42%(21.0) with a 15% 3-bet % over 50 hands or so.
This is a pretty good hand to 4-bet with, but I decided

I would just flat here on this flop. Lots of potential turn cards that can improve your equity for one. By the turn villain is going to be forced to reveal his hand strength. Size of the pot compared to the remaining stack sizes on the turn is going to make your turn bet have a lot of leverage if he checks to you and you bet. Conversely, it's going to be hard for him to make this bet on the turn with a hand that you beat- called on the flop, oop, stacksizes, etc.

If he makes a weak bet on the turn, I suppose jamming would be an option, depending on what you know about him and what he thinks about you. When the turn card comes a spade and he checks, I'm not sure which option would be better. I would consider checking behind, although if you bet and he shoves on you, by that point your probably going to be priced in with a 14 out draw anyways.

Turn card and action?

#3

23rd October 2008, 7:48 PM

c9h13no3 [8,362]

Wouldn't a bluff raise be good here?

1) It folds out hands like JJ, TT and villain's range is very wide 3-betting with 15% frequency. So we have good fold equity on the flop.

2) On the turn, if he bets again, we will have much less fold equity, and possibly less equity unless we turn a flush draw/two pair.

3) The flop is hella dry. No draws, and its Q high so there's an over-card to most pairs.

4) We have AK/AJ crushed, and by bluff raising, we would fold AK out of the pot, and therefore we lose value if he bluffs AK on a later street (assuming we call).

5) We're absolutely crushed by AQ or better. Calling allows us to hit some outs on the turn.

Think we should pump it up & jam?

#4

23rd October 2008, 11:25 PM

Richyl2008 [731]

Game: Bumhunting

Quote:

Originally Posted by c9h13no3

Wouldn't a bluff raise be good here?

As always, I guess people would say "never say never in poker", so I think there could be arguments in this hand for all 3 options.

1) It folds out hands like JJ, TT and villain's range is very wide 3-betting with 15% frequency. So we have good fold equity on the flop.

While 3 betting frequency is pretty high, the sample size is still relatively small, which could be misleading.

2) On the turn, if he bets again, we will have much less fold equity, and possibly less equity unless we turn a flush draw/two pair.

If he makes a good size turn barrel, and we do not improve to 2 pair or better I would just fold. If he makes a smaller bet, one that looks like he may be leaving himself some room to get away from something, then I would consider jamming as an option, if you feel that he is not good enough to make a small bet in that spot to induce a raise.

3) The flop is hella dry. No draws, and its Q high so there's an over-card to most pairs.

It's hard for us to represent a whole lot here, and if we did have a set or AQ I wouldn't see a whole lot of reason to raise this flop, unless villain is aware of yetti thereom, it may allow him to shove on you with air. So I think calling tells a more believable story for the most part, and is a lower variance play.

So if we raise the flop and he shoves, we fold losing almost half our stack, and forfeiting any equity we may have picked up on the turn.If we just call the flop and he makes another large barrel we fold losing only about 20% of our stack.

4) We have AK/AJ crushed, and by bluff raising, we would fold AK out of the pot, and therefore we lose value if he bluffs AK on a later street (assuming we call).

Conversely, If the turn comes an ace, we will probably stack AK for a 370bb pot. While he may decide to bluff AK on later streets, there is a good chance that he will not, or he will show weakness in his betsizing OOP on the turn.

5) We're absolutely crushed by AQ or better. Calling allows us to hit some outs on the turn.

I agree, would be very unlucky

Think we should pump it up & jam?

I would prefer floating I think for the reasons listed

#5

23rd October 2008, 11:32 PM

jmasterrich [262]

Online Poker at: fulltilt, ps

Game: all of them

I think I would raise here, it looks a lot like a see bet to me...pump it to like 16...it really helps to see where you are in the hand and the worst thing that happens is he shoves over the top in which case you muck....Although 16 might be a lot to lose there, it's a tough spot thats for sure.
Also, position realllly helps in this hand cause then you can tell how strong he is if he flats your raise on the flop and you could definitley fire a second barrel if you feel weakness. However he might bet into you again and if the turn is a blank I think the move is mucking.

pump it to like 16...it really helps to see where you are in the hand and the worst thing that happens is he shoves over the top in which case you muck

This makes no sense. This move costs us more than half my stack to "see where I am". And if he shoves, we'll have to call like 5$ more or something, so we'll be priced in even though we know we're behind.

If we're raising this flop, we're dumping our whole stack in, there's no doubt about that. And the reason to bluff raise would be to fold out worse hands, not to see where we are. Betting to "see where you are" is a great way to know exactly where you are in the hand, but its also a great way to become broke. We're not trying to win knowledge of our opponent's cards, we're trying to win money.

I ended up calling, and the rest of the hand easily played itself out. Just not sure if I like a bluff raise more or not.

Flop: ($9) 8 Q 4 (2 players)SB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($23) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($23) 2 (2 players)SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

SB shows AK
Hero wins $31.68.

Given his aggression factor, making a bluff catcher is probably profitable against this player. I'm just worried that he could play a hand like TT the same way. Anyways, here's some stove numbers that got me thinking about the bluff raise: