CO2 rise Rise may just be a blip in downwards trajectory

It was previously hoped that emissions might soon reach their peak after three stable years, so the new projection for 2017 is an unwelcome message for policy makers and delegates at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 23) in Bonn this week.

In the U.S., emissions are projected to decline 0.4 per cent (minus 2.7 per cent to plus 1.9 per cent) in 2017, lower than the decline of 1.2 per cent per year averaged over the previous decade, with an unexpected rise in coal consumption (GDP up about 2.2 per cent in 2017).

Worldwide "we are probably in the level-to-upwards direction for emissions in the next years rather than level or downwards", Peters said, because of stronger global gross domestic product (GDP) growth. This is a window into the future.

Global emissions need to reach their peak by 2020 and then start falling quickly in order to have a realistic chance of keeping global warming below the 2C danger limit.

"With global Carbon dioxide emissions from all human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below two degrees Celsius let alone 1.5 degrees".

The report authors noted large uncertainties in the data persist and the true growth figure may be anywhere between 1 and 3%.

Global CO2 emissions from all human activities are set to reach 41 billion tonnes (41 Gt CO2) by the end of 2017.

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It estimates that 37 billion tonnes of Carbon dioxide will be emitted from burning fossil fuels, the highest total so far.

"China generates almost 30% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and the ups and downs of the Chinese economy leave a signature on global emissions growth", said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, senior researcher at Cicero and co-author.

India's emissions are expected to rise by 2 percent, much less than the 6 percent per year it averaged over the last decade, while the European Union's emissions is set to decline by 0.2 percent - compared to an average 2.2 percent drop each year over the last decade.

This year is expected to be the first time in five years that coal consumption will increase (by 0.5 percent) in the country. "Coal needs to be rapidly phased out of the global energy mix, while renewables must be ramped up far quicker", he added.

"The plateau of previous year was not peak emissions after all", the Global Carbon Project, a group of 76 scientists in 15 countries, wrote of the findings. It's been hungrier for coal, oil and natural gas, due to increases in industrial production and economic growth.

Their data, presented during negotiations among nearly 200 nations in Germany about details of the 2015 Paris Agreement climate accord, are a setback to a global goal of curbing emissions to avert more downpours, heat waves, and rising sea levels.

"Policy makers in Bonn are preparing for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, that will start in 2018 and occur every five years, and this puts vast pressure on the scientific community to develop methods and perform measurements that can truly verify changes in emissions within this five-yearly cycle", said Prof Le Quéré.

The expected jump in the carbon emissions that drive global warming is a "giant leap backwards for humankind", according to scientists.