The Commerce Department stunned the financial market by reporting that growth was revised down to a 2.9% contraction in the first three months of the year from the previous estimate of a 1% decline.

The decline is “by war the worst quarter on record outside of a recession,” said Ted Wieseman, economist at Morgan Stanley. The cold weather can be blamed for about half of the drop, analysts said.

In a statement, Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said “a range of other data show a more positive picture for the first quarter.”

Specifically, aggregate hours as measured by the Labor Department grew at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter and industrial output, measured by the Federal Reserve, increased 2.1% at an annual rate in the first quarter, he noted.

Based on these data points “one would have expected positive GDP growth of 2%-2.5% at an annual rate in the first quarter,” Furman said.

In addition, “more up-to-date indicators from April and May suggest that the economy is on track for a rebound in the second quarter,” he said.