Political Memo; Learning to Play Ethnic Politics in a Changing City

By ADAM NAGOURNEY

Published: May 11, 2001

Roberto Ramirez, the chairman of the Bronx Democratic Committee and a senior adviser to Fernando Ferrer, has a simple explanation for why he is certain that Mr. Ferrer will be the next mayor of New York, and it is as old as the city itself: the power of ethnic politics.

Mr. Ramirez says he believes that Mr. Ferrer will assemble a winning coalition of black and Latino voters, invigorated by the issues he has raised and the promise of electing New York's first Puerto Rican mayor. In Mr. Ramirez's view, Mr. Ferrer will defeat three white Democratic rivals because of the huge swell of the Hispanic population and because blacks will rally to his candidacy in a show of unity in what he has consistently described as a part of New York that has been neglected for the last eight years.

But if these last difficult days for Mr. Ferrer have shown anything, it is that this strategy is not nearly as simple to execute as it is to describe in a city swirling in demographic and political change.

Mr. Ferrer's efforts to bring together ''the Hispanic vote'' and ''the black vote'' take on a whole new meaning at a time when those labels must take into account hugely divergent blocs, made up of people from different countries and with different political beliefs, cultures, incomes and languages.

And an explicit appeal based on racial and ethnic identity, which has been at least the subtext of Mr. Ferrer's campaign, carries risks today that New York City candidates did not have to worry about 20 years ago. Even Mr. Ferrer's aides acknowledge that it could scare off the white voters he will need to win City Hall and recall an era of racial policies, like affirmative action, that Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has repeatedly sought to discredit during his years in office.

Mr. Ferrer, aware of the risks of a too obvious ethnic appeal, had sought to do this indirectly: by speaking Spanish during long stretches of his news conferences, by talking of his pride at perhaps being the city's first Puerto Rican mayor, or by repeatedly attacking Mr. Giuliani's tenure on subjects like crime and housing that his advisers say have particular resonance among members of minority groups.

The difficulty came when he reached out to recruit the Rev. Al Sharpton, one of the key black leaders Mr. Ferrer has wanted to support his campaign. Mr. Sharpton responded to what he described as pressure from Mr. Ferrer's campaign with exactly the kind of bald racial demand that Mr. Ferrer had sought to avoid. To Mr. Ferrer's embarrassment, Mr. Sharpton said he would endorse him only if Mr. Ferrer promised to endorse blacks for two offices.

That put Mr. Ferrer in the unusual position of having to declare that he was, all appearances to the contrary, running a race-blind campaign.

Beyond that, the kind of spectacle that can be created when race meets mayoral politics -- particularly when Mr. Sharpton is one of the players -- tends not to be helpful to people who are running for mayor. After yesterday, Mr. Ferrer could be forgiven if he was wondering why in the world he had sought Mr. Sharpton's support in the first place.

Mr. Sharpton spent yesterday in a very public series of meetings with Mr. Ferrer's opponents, even speaking by telephone with Michael R. Bloomberg, the communications entrepreneur who might run as a Republican.

Mr. Sharpton showed no signs of backing off his criticism of Mr. Ferrer, charging that the Ferrer campaign was trying to railroad him by suggesting that it was his responsibility to end the longtime political rift between black and Hispanic leaders in New York.

''I will not be subjected to racial blackmail,'' Mr. Sharpton said of Mr. Ferrer's campaign last night.

And when Mr. Ferrer showed up on the steps of City Hall yesterday for a news conference on his plan to build housing in New York -- one of the issues that his advisers believe have particular resonance among blacks and Hispanics -- he found a large contingent of reporters waiting for him.

''I'm thrilled beyond belief that so many of you are interested in affordable housing,'' Mr. Ferrer said sarcastically.

There are other risks inherent in ethnic politics. Mr. Ramirez exulted yesterday at the increase in Hispanic residency in New York, calling it central to his belief that Mr. Ferrer will get more than 40 percent of the vote in the Sept. 11 primary, thus avoiding the need for a runoff between the top two vote-getters. ''It is incredible,'' he said. ''Twenty-seven percent of the city of New York is now Hispanic.''

But one of Mr. Ferrer's senior black advisers, Bill Lynch, acknowledged that votes from blacks and Latinos alone are not enough to win him the mayoralty. And Mr. Ferrer's advisers are well aware that the explicit racial dialogue that Mr. Sharpton has stirred will not help him with white voters.

Mr. Ferrer rejected Mr. Sharpton's demands, but only after the other three Democratic candidates said they would not abide by the conditions Mr. Sharpton laid down.

Finally, these last few days raise questions about whether this kind of old-fashioned approach to politics works in a city whose political complexion is changing so quickly that political models that worked four years ago are already outdated. Why, for example, would people from the Dominican Republic automatically rally behind the candidacy of Mr. Ferrer simply because he is from Puerto Rico?

''There are coalitions that can be put together, but each community is so incredibly diverse,'' said one of Mr. Ferrer's rivals, Alan G. Hevesi, the city comptroller, after meeting with Mr. Sharpton. ''Even if Fernando Ferrer has what he calls a black and Hispanic coalition, there are a number of Hispanics who are not part of that and a number of African-Americans who would not be part of that.''