Raul Castro turning 81, trying to preserve communism

June 02, 2012|Reuters

* Cuba's three top leaders are octogenarians

* Average life expectancy for Cuban male is 76

* No obvious successors in place

By Jeff Franks

HAVANA, June 2 (Reuters) - Cuban President Raul Castro turns81 on Sunday, another year on in his race against time to reformCuba's economy and try to assure the survival of communism afterhe and his elderly colleagues are gone.

Their task, he has said, is to correct mistakes made duringtheir 53 years of leadership, which will require "days and yearsof work" that he intends to finish.

"The generation that made the (Cuban) revolution has had thehistoric privilege, few times seen, of being able to direct therectification of errors they themselves committed," he told aCommunist Party conference in January. "Despite the fact that weare not so young, we don't plan to waste this last opportunity."

Older brother Fidel Castro, who led Cuba for 49 years beforeage and infirmity forced him to leave office, is 85 and still abehind-the-scenes player.

The average life expectancy for a Cuban male is about 76years.

President Castro has said his health is good and he feelsyoung, plus there is a history of longevity in his family. Hissister Angela died in February at the age of 88 and his eldestbrother Ramon is 87.

If he is worried about time, Raul Castro does not let onpublicly.

He has fretted publicly about not having groomed youngerleaders to succeed the current group, but there are no obviouscandidates waiting the wings.

He has said on several occasions that the remaking of Cuba'seconomy will be done "without hurry, but without pause" so thatthe mistakes of the past are not compounded by more mistakes.

SPEEDIER REFORMS

Many people think he needs to move faster, regardless of hisage.

Since officially succeeding older brother Fidel Castro in2008, he has launched reforms to encourage private initiativeand reduce the role of the state, which controls 90 percent ofthe economy.

He has put more agriculture in private hands, opened thedoors for small private businesses and begun giving statecompanies more autonomy. He wants to cut a million jobs, orabout 20 percent of the workforce, from the government'spayrolls.

He has allowed Cubans to buy and sell cars and homes,privileges denied to them for five decades.

But there are questions about whether President Castro isdoing enough to modernize the struggling Soviet-style economyand accomplish his goal of saving the communist system put inplace after the 1959 revolution.

The Communist Party affirmed at a congress in 2011 thatcentral economic planning would continue and the accumulation ofproperty not allowed.

Many people think Cuba needs to open up its economy in thestyle of fellow communist-led countries China and Vietnam.

"The challenge for Raul Castro and the leadership of theCommunist Party continues to be the orderly implementation of atransition to a mixed economy and a society open and integratedto the world," said Cuba expert Arturo Lopez-Levy at theUniversity of Denver.

Serious problems loom that may force deeper and fasterchange on Cuban leaders.

The economy is swimming in debt, sources of foreign incomeare limited - partly due to the longstanding U.S. trade embargoagainst Cuba - and the island is heavily dependent on VenezuelanPresident Hugo Chavez for oil and investment.

Chavez, 57, is battling cancer and facing re-election inOctober. His death or political demise could end Venezuela'sspecial relationship with Cuba, which would deal a seriouseconomic blow to the island.