Heavyweight boxing & mixed martial arts ratings and commentary

February 2011

February 14, 2011

Fedor Emelianenko's loss to Antonio Silva put all his weaknesses on show: sloppiness on the ground, indifference to getting punched in the face, and general overconfidence bred from winning 25+ fights in a row despite the first two weaknesses. Afterwards Fedor made the case for retirement, and indeed he has been thinking about retiring even before losing to Fabricio Werdum.

Twice now Fedor has lost to standard jiu-jitsu techniques, getting caught in the triangle while in the guard, and getting pummelled while on the bottom of mount position. These are things that everyone in the game today tries to avoid as their first priority, but Fedor's carelessness (and overconfidence that he can remove himself from every trap) made him a victim to both as practiced by BJJ black belts.

So should Fedor retire? He's still #4 in our MMA Top 100, and yet #2 among heavyweights, but this is because he amassed such a huge point lead over the decade 2000 to 2009. Losses don't immediately knock a fighter down like they do in our boxing rankings, as MMA fighters don't have 30-0 records normally. But Fedor's decline seems obvious. Here is his fighting history and current rankings among those he's defeated:

First we see that the fighters that beat him—Werdum and Silva—got a huge boost, in fact most of their points, from beating Fedor. Both are in the top ten overall and top three heavyweights. Could either of them really beat Cain Velasquez? There will be no shortage of competition coming up for the two as they continue through the rounds of the Strikeforce tournament; the four other remaining competitors are Alexander Overeem, Sergei Kharitanov, Brett Rogers, and Josh Barnett.

Also, it's been quite a while since Fedor beat a top opponent who is still highly thought of. This is no secret to those who follow MMA, as everyone makes this argument. His last win over an opponent who is still in the top 100 was in 2004, and that was Nogueira who has lost twice to UFC fighters since then.

It does bring up an interesting point: how many heavyweights Fedor has "ruined." Before losing twice to Fedor, Nogueira was the best in the world, and won 18 straight apart from those losses; since the 2nd loss, he's a more reasonable 8-3. Brett Rogers was 10-0 B.F. (Before Fedor) and is 1-1 since. Andre Arlovski was on a 5-fight winning streak before Fedor; now he's on a 4-fight losing streak and headed for retirement. Even Tim Sylvia didn't lose to any but the best before he took Fedor's beatdown; afterward he lost to aging boxer Ray Mercer and recently to 8-3 Abe Wagner.

One could argue that Fedor has been fighting those past their prime. So is it age or Fedor's knockouts that are hurting these fighters? Certainly Rogers and Arlovski, 28 and 29 when they fought Fedor, weren't over the hill. Sylvia was 32 and Nogueira 27 for their last fight. Really, these are peak ages for MMA fighters; their subsequent declines have a lot to do with Fedor.

It's perhaps more telling to look at where his recent foes were rated when he fought them:

This makes his more recent wins more impressive, while also making his recent losses look worse.

Fedor recently commented that he is a fan of Cain Velasquez and that he thinks Velasquez can remain champion of the UFC for a long time. We've noted that Velasquez fights a lot like a younger Fedor, and perhaps he'll carry the torch if Fedor decides to retire.

February 05, 2011

Another Top 100, another month of Klitschko dominance as brothers Wladimir and Vitali continue their seemingly endless run at #1 and #2.

At the bottom of the top ten, however, are some new names, as Ondrej Pala, Odlanier Solis, and Jean Marc Mormeck move in with December wins, pushing out long-time top ten denizens Eddie Chambers and Nicolay Valuev.

• Pala is 28-2 with 7 rated wins and no losses since he became "registered." The win that put him in the top ten was a scoring fluke, as he beat tomato can Ergin Solmaz. Solmaz had become registered when he upset Damian Norris; by the time Pala beat him, Solmaz had already lost to Yakup Saglam and was ranked #132, so Pala's rise was mostly due to the decline of #11 Francesco Pianeta, #12 Chambers, and #13 Valuev for inactivity.

• Solis has been a pro for a while now and finally cracks the top ten after beating Ray Austin. The former Olympic gold medalist came in heavy yet again and dominated Austin in the early rounds before running out of gas. The middle rounds were mixed before Solis took control again and Austin was out on his feet as he swung at Solis after the bell, leading to the disqualification. Solis takes on #2 Vitali Klitschko in March for the WBC heavyweight title.

• Mormeck becomes the third former cruiserweight to move into the top ten, following David Haye and Tomasz Adamek. All of them took an accelerated approach, breaching the top ten after just a few fights. Mormeck's road has been the rockiest. In his home country of France he took a split decision from former #13 Timur Ibragimov; before that he looked shaky but won decisions from Vinnie Maddalone and Fres Oquendo, the latter very controversial.

Oct2010

Feb2011

Fighter

Rating

Rated Record

Oct.-Jan. Results

1

1

WLAD KLITSCHKO

63.16

33-3-0

2

2

VITALI KLITSCHKO

40.27

23-2-0

UD 12 #96 SHANNON BRIGGS

3

3

ALEX POVETKIN

30.80

16-0-0

KO 5 #211 TEKE ORUH; UD 10 #36 NICOLAI FIRTHA

5

4

DAVID HAYE

27.05

5-0-0

TKO 3 #52 AUDLEY HARRISON

4

5

RUSLAN CHAGAEV

26.08

13-1-0

UD 8 #255 TRAVIS WALKER

6

6

TOMASZ ADAMEK

21.52

5-0-0

TKO 5 #251 VINNIE MADDALONE

7

7

DEREK CHISORA

19.97

5-0-0

11

8

ONDREJ PALA

18.76

7-0-0

TKO 3 #71 ERGIN SOLMAZ

19

9

ODLANIER SOLIS

18.50

8-0-0

WDQ 10 #25 RAY AUSTIN

30

10

JEAN MARC MORMECK

18.27

3-0-0

SD 12 #13 TIMUR IBRAGIMOV

Other top ten notes: While Alexander Povetkin remains at #3 after winning two keep-busy fights, David Haye passes Ruslan Chagaev for the #4 slot. The two were in a virtual stalemate at #4 but Haye's win over the spent Audley Harrison garnered him more points than Chagaev's decision over Travis Walker. The two are supposed to meet with Chagaev being the WBA mandatory, but his health certification issues keep him fighting only in Germany and will probably let Haye out of the fight.

Tomasz Adamek, remaining at #6, knocked out Vinnie Maddalone, who gave Mormeck some trouble. At #7 is Wladimir Klitschko's next challenger, Derek Chisora.

In the top 20, #14 Tony Thompson, #15 Robert Helenius, #17 Chris Arreola, #19 Juan Carlos Gomez, and #20 Edmund Gerber all won fights in recent months but only Helenius jumped a notch, while Thompson and Gomez dropped a notch as their fights were against very low-rated opponents and gained them negligible value. Highly-regarded Denis Boytsov slipped to #18 due to idleness; he holds a win over Pala but hasn't beat a registed fighter in over a year.

Undefeated prospects Yakup Saglam (6-0) and Kubrat Pulev (10-0) moved into the top 25.

A number of new fighters joined the top 100, with Eric Bahoeli the highest-rated at #30. Bahoeli took advantage of the fact that Ruben Rivera (3-6) had become rated after he beat Wayne John, who previously upset Patrice L'Heureux. Bahoeli is more likely to be the real deal; now 6-0, he won every round on every card against Rivera.

Also in: Antonio Tarver, after beating Nagy Aguilera in a unanimous decision. The former light heavyweight superstar is 42 years old. Aguilera has lost 3 out of 4 after knocking out Oleg Maskaev just over a year ago.

And heralded prospect Deontay Wilder jumps in at #79 after getting his first registered win. Now 14-0, Wilder beat one of the lowest-rated fighters, #331 Harold Sconiers who is now #337 out of 341 registered heavyweights. Still, it's a win for the tall, lanky 2008 Olympic bronze medalist, who is being brought along carefully but of whom good things are expected.