Chicago area loses population for 3rd straight year

(Tribune graphics)

Elvia MalagonChicago Tribune

The Chicago area has lost residents for a third consecutive year while the country’s Southern and Western areas saw population gains.

An estimated 13,286 residents left the Chicago metropolitan area — which extends from the city to its suburbs and into parts of Indiana and Wisconsin — according to 2017 data released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. It translates to a decrease of less than 1 percent.

The metropolitan area has seen gradual declines in population, losing 11,177 residents in 2016 and 3,371 in 2015, according to the Census Bureau.

That doesn’t mean all of the areas within the metropolitan area are losing residents. Suburban counties such as Will, Kane, McHenry and Kendall saw population increases in 2017. In fact, the population of Kendall County, west of the city, increased by 1 percent, or 1,645 residents, census data show.

In contrast, Cook County saw a loss of 20,093 residents in 2017, according to the Census Bureau. Still, it maintained its spot as the second-most-populous county in the nation while also experiencing the largest numerical decrease in population compared with the nation’s other top 10 counties. It adds up to less than a 1 percent population change.

Like the metropolitan area, Cook County has seen a downward population trend since 2015, losing more than 14,000 residents in 2016 and nearly 8,000 residents in 2015. DuPage County has lost residents for the past two years.

While the declines weren’t enough to knock the Chicago metropolitan area out of its spot as the third-most-populous metropolitan area, it was the only one in the country’s top 10 that saw a decrease rather than an increase in population, according to the Census Bureau.

“It sticks out compared to some other metros,” said William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Of the country’s 100 largest metro areas, only 10, including Chicago, declined in population. The Pittsburgh area also saw a population decrease while the Milwaukee metropolitan area squeaked by with a gain of less than 100 people, Frey said.

The Detroit metropolitan area saw a gain last year of about 7,000 residents, which is significant because it’s the biggest gain there since at least 2001, Frey said.

But that doesn’t compare to the numeric increases that Southern metropolitan areas saw from 2016 to 2017. The Dallas area had an increase of 146,238 residents while the Houston area increased by 94,417, according to the Census Bureau. Those two Texas areas were the top two in terms of numeric increases.

It’s an indicator that as the economy continues to pick up, people are beginning to once again move to warmer states, Frey said. Chicago demographer Rob Paral also noted that Southern and Western metropolitan areas are benefiting from migration from other states.

Across the country, there are fewer immigrants helping increase populations, Paral said. That could be one reason that Illinois isn’t experiencing population growth.

The number of immigrants moving to the Chicago area dipped slightly in 2017, Frey said. The number of immigrants settling in the Chicago area has declined from how many were making the area home a decade ago.

Some Chicago residents aren’t moving very far. Connie Abels, a Chicago-based real estate agent, helped a recently retired couple close on the sale of their Rogers Park home. The couple is moving to a home in central Indiana they had been working on for years, she said.

Abels, who has worked in real estate for more than 30 years, hasn’t noticed an uptick in people moving out of state. Her clients who have moved from Illinois have done so for various reasons. One moved for a job and another moved to be closer to family after having a child, she said.

Parts of the Chicago area are growing, including the city’s downtown, but other areas, like suburban Cook County, haven’t seen any growth, Paral said.

“It’s not like a catastrophe,” Paral said. “It’s more that for years we have had a slow growth/no growth pattern here. When you look at other areas, a lot of our peers are slow growth/steadily growing.”

But a continued loss of population will have political implications. Illinois is already on track to lose one congressional seat after district maps are redrawn following the 2020 census, and a steeper population drop could cost the state two seats, said Dick Simpson, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

The Chicago metropolitan area is the economic engine of Illinois, Simpson said. That creates a “chicken and egg” problem, because fewer jobs means a continued loss of population. In turn, that means there are fewer people to buy goods to restore the economy.

The state’s budget problems have caused people to lose confidence in Illinois, which might explain the declines in population, Simpson said. However, he pointed to new jobs as a sign of the economy improving.

“I think we are about to stabilize,” Simpson said. “It’s really hard to tell. It’s why the numbers are being watched pretty closely.”