Sunday 02/23/14

Here is a wire service rundown of spring flood risk assessments from Midwestern National Weather Service offices released late last week. The forecast appears to be a bit too optimistic, which I detail in some comments following the article.--Bryce

Midwest faces minimal risk of spring floods

JIM SALTER Associated Press

ST. LOUIS (AP) --- Despite the snow still covering the upper Midwest, National Weather Service experts are optimistic that come spring, flooding will be minimal in the nation's Heartland.

Several Midwestern branch offices of the National Weather Service released spring flood outlook reports late Thursday. None project significant flooding--- even the risk of minor flooding is below normal in many places.

That's a bit of a surprise considering how snowy the winter has been. Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa still have up to 3 feet of snow on the ground.

The snowfall has been offset by unusually low river levels and drought, National Weather Service hydrologist Mark Fuchs in suburban St. Louis said. He said that when the snow melts, much of it is expected to go into the parched ground.

"There is a fair amount of snow up north but there is also a drought up north," Fuchs said Friday. "That's the one thing that's going to mitigate the flood potential."

Long-term rainfall projections call for around average precipitation in the spring. Fuchs said if that's accurate, minor flooding could be expected in parts of the Mississippi River from southern Iowa to the Missouri River confluence near St. Louis. Mississippi River tributaries could also see mostly minor flooding.

Some rivers in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana are already out of their banks, though the flooding is expected to be minor and brief.

This week's unusually warm temperatures caused significant snow melt in northern Missouri. Combined with up to an inch of rain in the middle of the week, a few rivers spilled over their banks. Ewing, a tiny community about 120 miles north of St. Louis, was hardest hit, but damage was mostly limited to farmland and county roads.

Spring flood predictions for the region south of St. Louis are difficult to project because the National Weather Service hasn't yet developing flood modeling for the Missouri River, which plays such an important role in Mississippi River depths below the confluence.

The spring outlook from the weather service's Sioux Falls, S.D., office calls for a lower than normal chance of flooding over much of the Dakotas and into Nebraska. The Des Moines, Iowa, office projects near-normal flood risks over most of Iowa, saying that below-normal soil moisture offsets deep frost that often raises flood concern.

The Rock Island, Ill., weather service office projects near-normal flood risk on the Mississippi River in most of Iowa and Illinois, but a slightly elevated risk from Dubuque, Iowa, south to the far northeastern Missouri.

Fuchs cautioned that a strong and extended storm or two could wipe out all the hopeful predictions.

"The bottom line is how much rain do we get," he said.

BA comment--

It looks as if this forecast is too optimistic when you consider both the pattern that appears likely to set up for spring and the recent underperforming of the National Weather Service's seasonal forecast. Let's get the recent forecast performance out of the way first--NOAA basically busted on the winter forecast for 2013-14, calling for "equal chances" on both temperature and precipitation for most of the central U.S. We all know what happened since, with the coldest conditions in memory for many, and for those of us with a bit longer memory, the coldest in some 35 years or so, going back to the late 1970s. Winter precipitation has also been much heavier than forecast in the northeastern through southern Midwest as well.

But now to the major reason why it looks to us like such a forecast carries a bit too much hopefulness--the ability of the upper-air pattern to stay cold and stormy. We know that another brutal cold wave is poised to cover the central U.S. during this final week of February, which will do nothing to hasten warming of soils for spring field work. And, of course, late last week saw some bitter-cold air and a swath of heavy snow in parts of the northern Midwest flood concern area as well.

The thing is, this week's cold wave does not appear to be the end of the chill. Forecast maps for the first part of March have a big, broad upper-level low (trough) sprawled across the Canadian Prairies, with the southern edge of that trough--or, in other words, the boundary between the cold northern trough and milder upper-atmosphere high pressure (ridge) in the southern U.S.--running through the north-central U.S. between Interstates 80 and 90--the Iowa-Minnesota corridor. In air-mass discussion, the term "boundary" is code for "surface front". And, with such a big difference between cold north and warm south, that frontal presence gives a strong hint at stormy conditions--rain, snow, possibly sleet the way this winter season has been.

The point is, there is every indication that the atmospheric patterns that we have been dealing with for quite some time now are going to stay with us--and their performance gives a strong reason to be concerned about spring flood chances being more than "minimal" in Spring 2014.

Sitting atop deep frost in eastern Iowa, my bet is with Anderson not Fuchs!! The later we get into Spring before thawing prevails, the more likely run-off will be fast and furious.

Posted by Curt Zingula at
6:59AM CST 02/24/14

Thanks for the comment Curt. I had several producers at the farm machinery show in Louisville KY say the same thing about deep frost level. These were farmers from southern Illinois--Indiana--Kentucky--where frost is usually not that big a problem. One man who runs a drain tile business had to quit for the season because the frost was so deep he could not break through it.

Posted by Bryce Anderson at
7:32AM CST 02/24/14

Bryce,
We are in the midst of a very challenging Winter here in S. C. Minnesota . It appears we will break the record for the most sub zero nights (mornings) in recorded history. Snow abounds. Wind blows. I moved more snow from my farmstead last Friday that I have in over a decade. We are 20- 30 degrees below normal temps right now and that will persist for another week. Yet every week some of our local weather gurus out of the Twin Cities say this Winter is an anomalously. In fact one wrote just days ago that the northern hemisphere average temp for January was the 4th highest ever recorded. I read some reports that the Arctic ice cap is starting to rebuild and others report it continues to melt at an alarming rate. So, who can I believe any more? Any thoughts?

Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at
12:38PM CST 02/26/14

Mark, the NOAA climate report for January is out. I've looked at it briefly but will get some more details to post on Friday. My quick first thought is that northern hemisphere conditions would take in the entire northern half of the world, and that there have been some very warm trends in Europe that to some extent counter the polar vortex helping that we have seen in much of the U.S. But there is a big difference in my opinion between the global picture and the reality of what's going on in the Midwest--and that reality is spelled out very well in your comments. And we are starting to get some trade chatter going to the effect that planting could be late this year. I was wondering when that would show up.

Posted by Bryce Anderson at
5:05AM CST 02/27/14

Bruce, I just heard the cofounder of greenpeace Peter Moore say that there is no scientific proof man is causing the slight warming of the earth. Which has been warmer in the past. He also said the ratio of CO2 has been higher in the past. He said an increase in the ratio of CO2 would actually increase the amount of water vapor which will cool the earth rather than make it warmer. He also says the slight warming is good for most species on the earth. Your comments.

Posted by FRANK FULWIDER at
9:46PM CST 02/27/14

Some years we have mild winters , some years tough winters, some years we have floods, other years we have droughts. Its been going on for a long time ! But anymore we have whiners about everything. I think we as a human race have just gotten to soft in the midst of our trying to survive on this tiny planet.

Thu Feb 26, 2015 09:37 AM CSTDespite some changes to the position of the jet stream and location of major weather features during the coming week, we will continue to see cold weather and little precipitation across Western Canada.

Thu Feb 19, 2015 02:11 PM CSTThe weather pattern is like a broken record with repeated surges of cold weather across central and eastern Canada with most of the central and eastern Prairies sharing in the cold. Alberta has seen temperatures vary from frigid to mild as arctic conditions play tag with Pacific air.

Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:29 AM CSTThe weather pattern is like a broken record with repeated surges of cold weather across central and eastern Canada with most of the central and eastern Prairies sharing in the cold. Alberta has seen temperatures vary from frigid to mild as arctic conditions play tag with Pacific air.

Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:52 AM CSTArctic air will take charge across most of Western Canada, where it has not been in place, during the next several days. A slight shift westward of the upper trough will allow for western expansion of bitter cold during the next week.

Thu Feb 5, 2015 11:45 AM CSTA cold air dome across the central and eastern part of Canada will keep the central and eastern Prairies cold during the next week or so but some Pacific air may bring periods of much milder temperatures to the southwest Prairies at times. Improving prospects for some snowfall are also in the cards.

Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:34 AM CSTExpanding amounts of arctic air across northern and central Canada are soon to make a return to Western Canada during the next few days and bring an end to the spring-like temperatures of the recent couple of weeks. The dry pattern is also expected to continue for most areas.

Thu Jan 22, 2015 09:50 AM CSTWinter is being kind to Western Canada as all of the cold weather remains across northeastern and eastern Canada. Pacific air has made it over the Rockies and sent temperatures to well-above-normal levels for most areas, but is mostly lacking precipitation.

Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:45 AM CSTCold weather has eased significantly across Western Canada during recent days and western parts of the Prairies have seen temperatures jump to well-above-normal levels. The mild pattern will last into next week but a new cold pattern may appear later this month.