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2011 Oscar Predictions

I’m not as interested in the Oscars this year as in previous years, mostly because Halle Berry’s breasts don’t seem to be nominated for anything. But I’m still going to watch, so I thought I’d put together my picks. I would say that most people don’t give a Bieber about who wins the Oscars, and I’m about as good as this as Charlie Sheen is at showing up to work, but here goes. Oh, and I left out the categories where I haven’t watched enough of the films nominated to have a valid opinion.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who should win? I’ll go with The Kids Are All Right for this one, though I don’t think the nominees are that strong this year.

Who will Win? King’s Speech probably will, because british accents make words sound better.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

What should win? This one’s a tough pick for me. It’s probably a toss-up between True Grit and Social Network, though I wouldn’t be sad if Winter’s Bone won either. I love Aaron Sorkin’s work, but I think that the Cohen’s script for True Grit is one of their strongest yet. Let’s go with Social Network.

What will win? Social Network. Aaron Sorkin’s fluid script is what makes this movie work, and is easily the biggest star of the film.

Visual Effects

What will win? I’d say Inception, but that might just be because it’s the only film nominated in this category that was actually watchable. I’m not sure why Hollywood seems to think that “special effect” movies can’t be great too.

Sound Mixing

What should win? Black Swan, even though it wasn’t nominated.

What will win? Inception. Probably the best chance that Inception has to win an Oscar this year.

Sound Editing

What should win? Again, Black Swan, even though it wasn’t nominated. Easily the best sounding movie this year.

What will win? Toy Story 3.

Music (Original Song)

What should win? Either Mother Knows Best, or I’ve Got A Dream, from Tangled, though neither was nominated.

What will win? We Belong Together, from Toy Story. Why? Because it’s Randy Newman. And watching an Oscars show without Randy Newman is like getting lung cancer without having smoked a cigarette.

Music (Original Score)

What should win? Black Swan, by Clint Mansell, even though it wasn’t nominated due the Academy’s dumb rules as to what constitutes an “original” score. My runner-up would be True Grit, which was also disqualified for the same reason.

What will win? The King’s Speech, by Alexandre Desplat. It’s a decent enough score, and does the job a score is supposed to do, which is to support the movie it’s in.

Best Foreign Language Film

What Should win? Incendies. It’s a Quebec film about rape, war, and incest.

What will win? Biutiful. It’s a Spanish film about looking into Javier Barden’s big, beautiful eyes for two hours. Which film do YOU think will win?

Film Editing

What Should Win? 127 Hours. Nobody knows how tell a story like Danny Boyle, and while people didn’t seem to respond to 127 Hours the way they did to his previous film, the editing was definitely the strongest part of the film, and deserves to be recognized.

What Will Win? Social Network.

Documentary Feature

This telephone booth may be accepting the award for best documentary.

What should win? Exit Through The Gift Shop. I would give Van Gogh’s ear to see this happen, JUST to see if Banksy will show up to accept the award.

What will win? Inside Job, unfortunately. It wasn’t a particularly well-made or interesting take on the financial crisis, but for some reason seemed to have quite a high-profile year.

Directing

Who should win? Darren Aronofsky, for Black Swan. I don’t think we have another director that is daring, as focused, and as talented as Darren Aranofsky right now. Another disappointment of this year’s Oscars is that Christopher Nolan didn’t get nominated for Inception.

Who will win? David Fincher, for Social Network.

Costume Design

Who should win? Mary Zophres, for True Grit.

Who will win? Jenny Beavan, for The King’s Speech. When in doubt, always go with the British period piece. It’s the costume design equivalent of going full retard.

Cinematography

Who should win? Danny Cohen, for the King’s Speech. Never has wallpaper looked so good.

Who will win? Danny Cohen, for the King’s Speech, though I think this is probably the category that has the strongest nominees. There are literally no losers here.

Art Direction

Who should win? King’s Speech.

Who will win? King’s Speech. You’re probably sensing a trend here. If this movie’s script was half as good as it looked, this would have been the best film of the year.

Animated Feature Film

Who Should Win? Toy Story 3, though I wouldn’t be sad if L’Illusioniste won. One of the misses of this year’s Oscars was that Tangled wasn’t nominated, in favour of the noxious How To Train Your Dragon.

Who Will Win? Toy Story 3. Pixar owns this category like Gaddafi owns crazy.

Supporting Actress

Two talented actresses. One reaaaaaally bad movie.

Who should win? Lesley Manville, for her sad, and desperately lonely performance in Another Year. Oh wait, she wasn’t nominated. Ok, so let’s go with Hailee Steinfeld. She was fantastic in True Grit, though the script she had to work with was a big part of that.

Who will win? Probably Amy Adams or Melissa Leo for The Fighter. They both had the misfortune of being in the same terrible movie, though they weren’t able to rise above it the way the Christian Bale did.

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, about 2 minutes after she realizes that she'll never be in a movie as good as Black Swan again.

Who should win? Natalie Portman. Hands down. There isn’t another category that I’m as convinced as to who should win as this one. Portman turned in the peformance of her career in Black Swan. That being said, I wouldn’t be sad if Jennifer Lawrence won this either.

Who will win? Not Natalie Portman or Jennifer Lawrence. Annette Bening seems to have this one locked up. Don’t get me wrong, I liked her in The Kids Are alright, but I think Portman took more risks with her performance.

Best Supporting Actor

Who should win? Christian Bale.

Who will win? Christian Bale. However, what he should actually win for is for “Best Supporting Actor In An Otherwise Awful Movie”. The Fighter was REALLY bad, but someone forgot to tell Christian Bale, and so he put in the performance of his career, for a movie that really didn’t deserve it. Also, being the best actor in a movie that stars Mark Wahlberg is a little like being the straightest man at a Cher concert: It’s not a contest if you’re the only one competing.

Best Actor

Who should win? Jeff Bridges. I think this isn’t likely, due to the fact that he won it last year for the thoroughly forgettable Crazy Heart.

Who will win? Colin Firth. I’m not sure what it is about the acting categories lately. The awards seem to be given for great performances in films that are otherwise just ok. That’s not to take anything away from Firth’s performance in King’s Speech. He helped make a decent film even better, and that’s his job. He really should have won for last year’s Single Man, so I’m ok if he finally gets his due here.

Best Picture

The best movie based on a book about a website ever.

Who should win? It’s no secret that I wasn’t blown away by a lot of films in 2010. Black Swan was one of very few exceptions, and it’s the movie that I most responded to, both emotionally and from a technical standpoint. In a time where Hollywood is getting safer and safer, Black Swan was a film that took risks. Risks that paid off big time.

Who will win? Social Network. Actually, I think this is a two-horse race, between Social Network and King’s Speech. Social Network is the better film, and it’s also one of three films that had both big box office as well as serious critical acclaim (Inception and Toy Story being the other two). It’s a movie that very much captures the zeitgeist of our time, and while I don’t think it was the best movie of the year, it’s probably the most important. It’s also my favourite movie based on a website since http://www.hothornyhousewives.com 2.