9/16: Voters Say, “No Go,” for Paterson in 2010

In the eyes of 70% of registered voters in New York State, Governor David Paterson is not a viable candidate for governor in 2010. That’s the proportion of the electorate who says Paterson should not run next year. The news gets even worse for the governor. The sentiment resonates across party lines with 65% of Democrats, his own party, saying he should not throw his hat into the ring. 80% of Republicans and 64% of non-enrolled voters agree.

So, who, then, do New York voters think should run for governor? 67% report that New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should run. This includes 53% of Republican voters and 66% of non-enrolled voters who would like to see Cuomo seek the office. Even 77% of Democrats agree.

Looking at possible Republican candidates, 58% of voters statewide want former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to make a bid for governor. However, here, there is a large partisan divide with 81% of Republicans supporting a Giuliani run and 43% of Democrats doing the same. 59% of non-enrolled voters align with the Republicans on this question. Interestingly, voters in New York City divide about whether Giuliani should announce his candidacy. 49% say, “Yes,” while 48% say, “No.” About six in ten voters in both the suburbs and Upstate would like to see him run.

And, while former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio is expected to make a formal statement announcing his candidacy soon, voters are sending out a different message. 55% think Lazio should not run for governor. In fact, members of his own Republican party are divided with 43% saying he should go for it and 43% reporting he should not. More than six in ten Democrats and a majority of non-enrolled voters believe Lazio should stay out of the race.

How does Governor Paterson stack up against the potential competition for next year’s general election for governor? In a hypothetical pairing against Rudy Giuliani, Giuliani has widened his lead over Paterson. The Republican nets 60% of the electorate to Paterson’s 34%. 6% are unsure. When Marist last asked this question in June, Paterson received 37% of the vote to Giuliani’s 54%.

Little has changed, however, when the governor is pitted against Rick Lazio, and there is no consensus among voters. 43% report they would support Paterson, and the same proportion — 43% — say they would back Lazio. Earlier this summer, Mr. Paterson garnered 41% while Mr. Lazio received 40%.

Saying Andrew Cuomo has a healthy shot at becoming the next governor of New York State is an understatement. If he receives the Democratic nomination, 71% of the electorate would vote for him when up against Republican Rick Lazio. Just 21% report they would back Lazio. Cuomo has been on solid ground when pitted against Lazio who doesn’t even receive a majority within his own party. Republicans divide with 46% backing Cuomo and 45% supporting Lazio. In Marist’s June survey, Cuomo received 68% of the overall electorate to Lazio’s 22%.

The race is tighter for Democrat Cuomo when up against Rudy Giuliani. However, Cuomo still maintains a lead. In fact, he garners a majority of the electorate – 53% — to Giuliani’s 43%. Both candidates received similar proportions of the vote in June.

If next year’s New York State Democratic Primary for governor were held today, Governor David Paterson would not be the Democrats’ candidate. Andrew Cuomo remains his party’s pick with 70% of New York Democrats saying they would back him. Paterson only receives 23% of the vote. Cuomo has retained a commanding lead against the governor. In June, both men received similar proportions.

83% of Republicans in New York State say if the 2010 Republican Primary for governor were held today, they would cast their ballot for Rudy Giuliani. Rick Lazio receives a slim proportion of Republicans’ support –- 13%. Giuliani has widened his lead against his potential challenger. When Marist last asked this question in June, he received 77% of New York’s GOP vote to Lazio’s 16%.