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Friday, May 20, 2011

Further NHL Realignment Scenario

In my previous post, I mentioned that Winnipeg may spend one year playing in the Southeast Division. The main reason for that idea stems from the Phoenix Coyotes. As of right now, the league-owned Coyotes are staying in Glendale. However their current deal is for a single year and the league still has not found an owner that wants to keep them in the desert. So a major realignment change now could easily be a waste of time.
If the NHL is unable to unload the Coyotes by the end of next season, they may finally throw in the towel and allow the team to move. What separates this move from the current Atlanta-to-Winnipeg deal is the lack of committed owners with NHL-ready facilities. True North has the luxury of having a fairly new, NHL compatible arena at their disposal; the Manitoba Moose of the AHL currently call the MTS Centre home. This has made the rapid progress on the Thrashers deal possible. In order for a deal to get pushed through as quickly next spring, the team will need an owner with a similar situation.
Here is a brief rundown of the potential and rumored expansion cities (in no particular order):
1. Quebec City: This former NHL market is eager to get top-flight hockey back. Unfortunately the city lacks a suitable NHL arena. Also working against the city are the lack of a solid ownership group, repeated failures with minor league teams, and its relatively small population. However, the strong potential for resumed rivalries with the other Canadian franchises works in the city's favor. The return to Winnipeg might indicate a willingness to reconsider Quebec as well.
2. Hamilton: This city in southern Ontario would be an immediate rival with Toronto and Buffalo due to its proximity alone. Unlike many others on this list, Hamilton boasts an NHL-ready arena and strong potential owners. How strong? The Penguins and Predators came thiiiiiiis close to relocating to Hamilton within the past decade and the Coyotes were a bankruptcy hearing away from arriving at Copps Coliseum.
3. Seattle: Seattle is always a fan favorite for relocation and expansion. Its proximity to Vanouver and its junior hockey history make Seattle seem like a logical choice. Unfortunately the departure of the Super Sonics indicates that a suitable professional arena simply does not exist. If the city was unwilling to give their long time NBA team a new home, it would be foolish to think they would do so for an NHL team. The city does have strong potential ownership groups, however.
4. Portland: The Rose City has a lot of the same positives as Seattle. It also has an NHL-ready facility, The Rose Garden Arena, home of the Trail Blazers. It would be a smaller market than Seattle, but the professional sports landscape is much less crowded.
5. Las Vegas: Vegas is a rapidly growing metro with a plethora of potential owners salivating at the cahnce to bring major league sports to Sin City. There is now a large scale stadium proposal on the table designed to bring in an NHL team (among other things). Perhaps the easiest of all moves for the Coyotes, this one is held back by the time it will take to actually build the arena.
6. San Anotnio: San Antonio has both an NHL-ready facility (At&T Center) and a likely ownership group (Spurs Sports & Entertainment). The current AHL team, the Rampage, share the facility (and color scheme) with the NBA's Spurs. Coincidentally, the Rampage are the Coyotes' long time minor league affiliate.
7. Houston: Believe it or not, Houston is a booming hockey town. The current Aeros have been around since 1994. The WHA fielded a team in the 1970s until that league merged with the NHL. The Toyota Center is an NHL-ready facility and is shared by the Rockets of the NBA. With several high end millionaires in the metro, a potential owner could easily be found.
8. Kansas City: The Sprint Center opened in 2007 with the NHL in mind. Like Hamilton, KC almost landed the Predators and Penguins. The Islanders have used relocation to KC as a threat several times. All that is missing from this scenario is a potential owner. As a side note, the Hornets and Kings of the NBA are considering relocating to KC. Incidentally, the Kings played in KC from 1972 to 1985.

So how would my proposed realignment look should the Coyotes move to one of the eight cities proposed above? The highlighted teams represent changes to my original proposal.1. Vegas, Seattle, or Portland: Things are simple: there would be no changes as all three are already in the Pacific Time Zone.Eastern Conference
Northeastern: Montreal, Boston, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey
Colonial: Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina
Great Lakes: Detroit, Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, OttawaWestern Conference
Southern: Florida, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis
Pacific: LA, San Jose, Anaheim, Phoenix, Vancouver
Prairies: Colorado, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minnesota2. Quebec City: It's not a pretty scenario as some rivalries will be sacrificed and some travel just got crappier. Geography pushes a team out of the Northeastern Division; I chose the Devils as they are the southernmost. This creates a ripple effect which causes Carolina to move to the Southern Division and St. Louis to the Prairies, as those are the most logical moves without too much disruption. Colorado moves to the Pacific in place of the Coyotes. All of my original requirements are still met. Eastern Conference
Northeastern: Montreal, Boston, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Quebec
Colonial: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Columbus, New Jersey
Great Lakes: Detroit, Chicago, Toronto, Buffalo, OttawaWestern Conference
Southern: Florida, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, Carolina
Pacific: LA, San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, Colorado
Prairies: Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minnesota, St. Louis3. Hamilton: Without a doubt, Hamilton belongs in the Great Lakes Division with their natural rivals Toronto and Buffalo. Strong potential rivalries with Detroit and Ottawa are too great to pass up. Unfortunately the Redwings-Blackhawks rivalry has to be sacrificed for this to work. Chicago moves to the Prairies Division to build a rivalry with Minnesota; considering their rivalries in other sports, this could be a great move. Once again Colorado takes the Coyotes' spot in the Pacific.Eastern Conference
Northeastern: Montreal, Boston, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey
Colonial: Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina
Great Lakes: Detroit, Toronto, Buffalo, Ottawa, HamiltonWestern Conference
Southern: Florida, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis
Pacific: LA, San Jose, Anaheim, Phoenix, Vancouver, Colorado
Prairies: Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minnesota, Chicago4. San Antonio or Houston: This one is a no-brainer - San Antonio/Houston would join Dallas in the Southern Division. A Texas rivalry is always a good thing and it evens things out with the Florida teams. Nashville is still southern enough to carry over while St. Louis moves to the Prairies. Once again Colorado takes the Coyotes' spot in the Pacific.Eastern Conference
Northeastern: Montreal, Boston, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey
Colonial: Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina
Great Lakes: Detroit, Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, OttawaWestern Conference
Southern: Florida, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, SA/Houston
Pacific: LA, San Jose, Anaheim, Phoenix, Vancouver, Colorado
Prairies: Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minnesota, St. Louis5. Kansas City: On the surface, I only moved Colorado to take the Coyotes' spot in the Pacific and put KC in the Prairies. However, I worked through several scenarios to make this work. Ideally, KC would be in a division with St. Louis at the very least. Unfortunately I could not find a way to do this without violating my time zone requirement or making travel distances a complete nightmare. At least the traditional rivalries remain in place. Under different conditions (say two more expansion teams), I could manipulate things into more ideal conference structures.
Pacific Time Zone.Eastern Conference
Northeastern: Montreal, Boston, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey
Colonial: Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina
Great Lakes: Detroit, Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, OttawaWestern Conference
Southern: Florida, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis
Pacific: LA, San Jose, Anaheim, Phoenix, Vancouver, Colorado
Prairies: Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minnesota, Kansas City

*As a bonus, here is a look at what a 32 team NHL could look like using a couple of the potential relocation markets noted above. In this exercise teams will be broken into two conferences of two divisions (with subdivisions separated to indicate how four divisions could look). My time zone and geography criteria will still apply as much as possible.Red indicates expansion/relocation cities.