U.s. Population 3.8 Million Below Projection

December 27, 1990|By The Washington Post

WASHINGTON — The government announced Wednesday that the 1990 census showed the official U.S. population is 249,632,692, a number that falls considerably below an earlier Census Bureau estimate of 253.4 million and leaves unsettled the question of the accuracy of the once-a-decade headcount.

The final figures show Virginia's population growing by 16.3 percent since 1980 - from 5,346,818 to 6,216,568.

Virginia is among eight states, mostly in the Sun Belt, that will gain representation in Congress. Thirteen states will lose representation.

Battle lines are already forming over whether the new seat should be in northern Virginia or Hampton Roads, the two fastest growing areas in the state.

Some Democrats, including Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, have argued that the district belongs in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.

But Republicans and black civil rights groups are fighting for a majority black district to be created in southeastern Virginia.

The General Assembly plans to redraw its legislative lines during a special session in April argued that the district belongs in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.

But Republicans and black civil rights groups are fighting for a majority black district to be created in southeastern Virginia.

The General Assembly plans to redraw its legislative lines during a special session in April after population figures for localities are released this spring. A second redistricting session to redraw congressional lines is set for November.

While critics focused on a discrepancy of 3.8 million residents between Wednesday's official figures and Census Bureau projections last fall, census officials defended the accuracy of their numbers.

"I believe we have seen here a full, fair and efficient census," said Michael R. Darby, Commerce Department undersecretary with responsibility for the Census Bureau.

But Rep. Thomas C. Sawyer, D-Ohio, chairman of the House Post Office and Civil Service subcommittee on census and population, said the numbers released Wednesday still should be viewed as preliminary. "I don't think we can be satisfied yet that we have the most accurate count that we are capable of producing as a nation," he said.

Population figures carry enormous weight in determining the distribution of political power and federal funds. With House seats limited by law to 435, each congressional district will represent an average of 572,466 people after the 1990 redistricting. The 1980 average was about 520,000.

The new numbers underline a dramatic population shift from the Midwest and Northeast to the South and West, and mean that California, Florida and Texas together will gain 14 U.S. House seats.

Virginia will gain a seat in the House, for a total of 11, while Maryland's delegation will remain at eight to represent a population of 4,798,622.

California's gain of seven seats in the House will give it a delegation of 52 representatives, the largest any state has ever had. When new political districts are drawn over the next two years to accommodate a 26 percent population gain, a Californian will hold one in every eight House seats.

Florida, which grew by 33.4 percent, will gain four seats, for a delegation of 23, and Texas, with growth of nearly 20 percent, will add three lawmakers, giving it 30 House seats.

Experts disagree on whether the new political map will benefit Republicans or Democrats. Seven of eight states that gain House seats voted Republican in the 1988 presidential election, leading some political analysts to predict that population shifts to those states could mean a gain for the GOP.

At the same time, many state legislatures - including California, Texas, Florida - are in the hands of Democrats, who will control the redrawing of congressional and state legislative districts, a process with enormous impact on political fortunes.

The figures released Wednesday found 922,819 U.S. military and federal employees stationed overseas, a group that was not counted in 1980.

The addition of that number, as well as persons counted late in the process, raised by nearly 4 million this summer's preliminary estimates of the total population. Still, the official figure fell about 3.8 million short of a Census Bureau estimate of 253.4 million released in October.

Studies revealed that the 1980 Census missed more than 3 million people. That undercount was disproportionately high among minorities and inner city residents, with some experts estimating that more than 20 percent of young black men were not counted.

Census Bureau Director Barbara Everitt Bryant said studies determining whether the 1990 headcount missed a substantial number of residents will be completed this spring.

The figures released Wednesday do not contain breakdowns for cities or counties. Nevertheless, the state totals confirm that the population has continued to shift from the nation's center to its coasts.