Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

I hope this does NOT get merged with the rebuild or re-tool thread since this is not a PROs and CONs post on Tanking vs not-tanking.

I legitimately would like to know the timeline, given the best case scenario, if the Raptors decide to go to tank mode, or play out this current roster and tweak it as they go along in the hopes of building a contender. Is there realistically a possibility to be contenders for both paths and, how long will each path take compared to the other.

Ive read so many discussions on why they should tank, why they shouldnt, why should tweaking the roster and keep re-tweaking year after year will work better and why they shouldnt but i have not read an actual, set of realistic timelines for each path.

I ask because there seems to be no "model" when it comes to using tanking to building a contender. Cavs, Spurs, OKC all seem to have "lucked out" with their picks.

And re-tweaking, it always seems to be the teams with the most money and biggest markets which are able to buy the best players.

I think a decision will be obvious by the trade deadline, if not sooner, based on the Raptors' performance in the first half (and their position in the standings).

I actually see 3 legitimate options at this point (not discussing pros/cons or personal preference):

1) tank this season (starting now or by trade deadline), with eyes on the 2014 draft & offseason --> I expect at least 2-3 years of rebuilding (likely with JV as only 'untouchable'), before being competitive for playoffs

2) status quo this season, with success --> make playoffs in 2013-2014 and build around the current core (ie: Valanciunas, Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, plus whoever else steps up), with only minor tweaking (likely a luxury tax team by 2014-15) available to build on their successful season

3) status quo this season, without success --> if they go for the playoffs this season and fail to make it, or make it but decide that 1st round fodder is their ceiling, they can still turnaround and use Lowry (S&T), Gay (expiring contract) and whoever else (likely all but JV) as trade bait next offseason; this could result in complete rebuild or retooling, so ultimate timeline is unknown until moves are made next offseason

I think a decision will be obvious by the trade deadline, if not sooner, based on the Raptors' performance in the first half (and their position in the standings).

I actually see 3 legitimate options at this point (not discussing pros/cons or personal preference):

1) tank this season (starting now or by trade deadline), with eyes on the 2014 draft & offseason --> I expect at least 2-3 years of rebuilding (likely with JV as only 'untouchable'), before being competitive for playoffs

2) status quo this season, with success --> make playoffs in 2013-2014 and build around the current core (ie: Valanciunas, Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, plus whoever else steps up), with only minor tweaking (likely a luxury tax team by 2014-15) available to build on their successful season

3) status quo this season, without success --> if they go for the playoffs this season and fail to make it, or make it but decide that 1st round fodder is their ceiling, they can still turnaround and use Lowry (S&T), Gay (expiring contract) and whoever else (likely all but JV) as trade bait next offseason; this could result in complete rebuild or retooling, so ultimate timeline is unknown until moves are made next offseason

I can see the first two coming. The third, I think is least likely b/c if Ujiri doen't think the team is firmly in playoff contention by the deadline, my guess is he blows it up.

Best Case scenario not-tanking: Raptors make the playoffs, maybe even as high as a 6th seed or so, push the series to 6 or 7 games, then Ujiri maneuvers in the offseason and gets a solid, if not star PF, and deepens the bench to get us on the brink of contending. Gay's shot making dramatically improves, possibly due to his eye surgery/ off season to establish himself as a great #1 option. Derozan shows that he can decently if not effectively hit the 3 ball, good second option. Lowry reverts more to his aggresive, 2012/ early 2013 form, and displays a solid playomaking ability. JV continues to develop. Ross too. Oh, and Buykes wins MVP.
Record: 45-37
Best Case scenario tanking: Ujiri blows it up sometime before or at deadline, trades Gay, Lowry, and maybe others for young assets/ draft picks. Maybe even a couple 2014 first rounders. Raptors luck out in the lottery and nab Wiggins, along with another one or two potential stars with the picks they acquired. Raptors sign serviceable vets or maybe even a star PF. Go into 2015 season with a core of JV, Wiggins, maybe Derozan, unkonwn star prospect, and a free agent landing. Miss the playoffs in 2015, and pull off an OKC in 2016.

The trade deadline but looking at the first 25 games, there is a difference if the team starts off
15 and 10 or --> go for playoffs
12 and 13 or --> go for playoffs?
11 and 14 or --->?? this rate of win would have qualified for playoffs last year
10 and 15 or --> ?? this is no man's land but does the team give up on the season
7 and 18 --> rebuild

We need to start off strong or collapse when the season starts and none of this middling stuff.

If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.

Decision will be made by the first week of December (about 25 games in) but trade may not happen until February deadline - or at all.

Here is what needs to happen for Raptors to 'stay the course' in my opinion:

1) Lowry career year that everyone has said was coming each of the last 3 off seasons,
2) DD needs to do more than score inefficiently (become average from deep, rebound, create, defend... ANYTHING else),
3) Gay needs to return to pre-shoulder injury form,
4) Amir needs to keep doing what he has been doing the last 2-3 seasons,
5) JV needs to enter all-star discussion,
6) Fields needs to return to pre-elbow injury form,
7) Ross needs to show he has potential to become at minimum 3 and D off the bench,
8) Hansbrough needs to produce like he did when given starter minutes last season for Indiana,
9) One of Buycks or DJ need to be at least average backup PG,
10) Novak needs to hit more 3's and create more space for others to operate than the lack of defense and rebounding his presence will create,
11) Acy and Gray need to layeth the smacketh down on any and all candy @sses.

If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.

Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.

If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.

Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.

Masai has said his gameplan is for the 2015/2016 season. That doesn't mean he starts rebuilding then; that means he intends to go into win-now mode at that time.

Blowing up the roster for a miniscule chance to land a superstar just seems foolish to me. Teams like Minnesota and Sac have been tanking since 2007 and what do they have to show for it? 0 playoff appearances between the two of them.

If the 2014 draft is as good as everyone says it is, even if we get the 8th seed we'd still be able to get an impact player with the 15th or 16th pick. Look at how well Ujiri has done with mid-late draft picks in Denver. Selecting Faried 22nd in 2011, who is already a double-double player, and Evan Fournier 20th in 2012 who showed some excellent potential last season when he got a chance to play later on. You can get talent outside of the lottery if you actually know how to draft, San Antonio does it every single damn year.

Assuming we can resign Lowry and Gay for a combined $25M or less per season (not unrealistic at all), here's what our situation would look like heading into the 2015 offseason.

Leaving us at just over 40M with about 20M in cap space to work with. We would also be armed with 3 tradeable prospects in Ross and the two first round picks as well as our two 2016 picks to make a move. And that's with 4 of the 5 starting positions already locked in long-term. I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a very ideal position to be in.

What would make this even better is if Gay or Valanciunas made the all-star team in 2014-15, which wouldn't be too unreasonable to expect if we were able to get a 4th-6th seed in the conference and make some noise around the league. Why wouldn't a star player want to come play with that ensemble? Or why wouldn't we be able to package assets to make a deal and bring one in?

Blowing up the roster for a miniscule chance to land a superstar just seems foolish to me. Teams like Minnesota and Sac have been tanking since 2007 and what do they have to show for it? 0 playoff appearances between the two of them.

Minnesota and Sacramento haven't been tanking. They've been sucking, because they were teams with ludicrously bad management, and that's not the same thing. It's really not fair in the slightest to compare a proper rebuild to what they've been doing the past six or seven years, which was an inept attempt to avoid having to rebuild at all (not unlike what BC spent most of his tenure doing here).

Getting good draft picks is meaningless if your front office is run by idiots (Minnesota) or your owners are actively malicious (Sacramento). A proper tank-and-rebuild plan doesn't involve signing marginal players like John Salmons and Travis Outlaw to longterm deals, nor does it involve drafting multiple point guards in a single year when you've managed to accrue numerous high-end lottery picks.

Minnesota and Sacramento haven't been tanking. They've been sucking, because they were teams with ludicrously bad management, and that's not the same thing. It's really not fair in the slightest to compare a proper rebuild to what they've been doing the past six or seven years, which was an inept attempt to avoid having to rebuild at all (not unlike what BC spent most of his tenure doing here).

Getting good draft picks is meaningless if your front office is run by idiots (Minnesota) or your owners are actively malicious (Sacramento). A proper tank-and-rebuild plan doesn't involve signing marginal players like John Salmons and Travis Outlaw to longterm deals, nor does it involve drafting multiple point guards in a single year when you've managed to accrue numerous high-end lottery picks.

Or in other words, you're saying the teams that tank aren't well managed. I agree.

Or in other words, you're saying the teams that tank aren't well managed. I agree.

Cute, but wrong.

For example, Utah is tanking this year but they're doing it the way a properly managed team tanks: they already have most of their young core, but they're going to spend a year giving that core starter minutes and loads of NBA experience, probably while losing a lot of games. And at the end of the year, they'll know if Favors, Kanter, Hayward and Burke are true NBA starter-level players or not, they'll have at least two first-round picks (their own - which should be mid-to-high lottery - plus Golden State's) and they'll have only seven million bucks committed in salary because they traded for Golden State's baggage to clear their cap space. Plus, who knows, maybe Biedrins rediscovers his game, in which case they have a reasonable trade asset if they want it (for more young talent or picks).

Really, the only flaw in Utah's plan was that they should have traded Jefferson and Millsap rather than simply giving them up for nothing, but they were in a playoff race and had good odds of making the 8th seed, and for a small-market team where the playoff revenue means a serious boost to the bottom line that's understandable.

See also: Cleveland (started from nothing, three years later has a large core of quality young talent), Orlando (midway through the post-Dwight rebuild, not done assembling their core but well along), etc.