Fantasy Movie League observations from an obsessed nerd

October 7, 2015

Fantasy Movie League Fall ’15 Week 6 Picks

The most dramatic week in Fantasy Movie League history (if only I’d bought 400 tickets to “Hotel Transylvania 2”) gets followed up this week with perhaps its trickiest. Effects eye candy fill “The Walk” and yet another “Peter Pan” based film in “Pan” are new choices this week, but so are the Spanish language “Ladrones” and film festival favorite “99 Homes”. The difficulty this week will be determining the value of the latter two with no professional forecast help as of Wednesday evening and whether or not to believe in an old nemesis that rears its head again.

Estimate Comparator Improvements

This week, at the suggestion of JB and 20th Century Weasel (which kinda sounds like an ultra hip 70s funk band) the Estimate Comparator now has a text box you can use to quickly change an estimate based on a percentage drop from last weeks box office. So you can use the sliders, enter your own value, or enter a percentage drop. When you change one, it will synchronize the other two accordingly only keep in mind I was too lazy to format check the text boxes so if you enter non-numerics there you’ll get the unpredictable results you can wash away by refreshing the page.

Combinations Worth Considering

The latest Estimate Comparator data has an average of the four films forecasted by both Deadline and ProBoxOffice.com as of Wednesday evening. Six films use the ProBoxOffice.com forecast. For the remaining five films, I computed the average forecast/FB$ and applied that to the FML Bux price for each.

And so it’s back.

With the Great “Everest” Whiff of 2015 fresh on our minds from Week 4, our cruel FML masters toss it back in our laps again this week as the favorite for Best Performer. I’d feel better about it if Deadline had forecasted it and I’ll keep my eyes peeled on BoxOfficeMojo Thursday when its forecast comes out, but by the ProBoxOffice.com math, “Everest” is the best bet for the $3M per screen bonus. It would have to fall off 48% to $2.92M instead of the forecasted 37.95%/$3.5M drop in order for the next best candidate, “Sicario”, to have a chance.

In the scenario where “Everest” fails, another film to consider for Best Performer is “Ladrones”. If it gets to $2.4M in combination with an “Everest” collapse, it gets Best Performer. There’s a great forum post discussing “Ladrones” that everyone should read if you think it’s a possibility.

Similarly, if “99 Homes” gets to $2.95M and “Everest” fails it is a viable candidate as well.

So what should you choose?

If you don’t believe in “Everest” or otherwise still feel the burn it gave you a few weeks ago and if both “Ladrones” and “99 Homes” feel like stretches, the bold move is to go all in on “Sicario” and leave no room for hedging:

If, however, you think “Ladrones” will get to $2.4M and the others will not do well, this base combination is for you to fill out with three more films:

Along the same lines, if you like “99 Homes” possibility to get to $2.95M in the event of a “Everest” failure, consider plus three others:

Finally, if the prospect of “Everest” doesn’t bother you, you’re looking at this with two more selections:

There are lots of sub-combinations to consider there when filling in the question marks with your own picks, but the big decisions involve those choices above. Thursday numbers aren’t likely to help this week but definitely look for the BoxOfficeMojo forecast on Thursday as that may sway your thinking.