Tropical Storm MICHAEL

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Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018
...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...
...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...33.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued for the Gulf coast of
Florida.
The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Georgia and
Florida coast south of Altamaha Sound.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster
forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move through eastern Georgia into central
South Carolina this morning, then moves across portions of central
and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into the
Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today while
the center remains over land. However, Michael is forecast to
intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late
tonight or early Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. Louisville, Georgia recently
reported a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h), and there are several
reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in the Augusta area.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are receding along the Gulf Coast of
Florida. Along the southeast coast of the United States, the
combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential
to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
eastern and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions
of central and southern South Carolina this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this
morning through Friday.
Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic
states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches
are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and
southeast Virginia.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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