This blog continues the discussion that we began with Epic Journey: The 2008 Elections and American Politics (Rowman and Littlefield, 2009). In 2017, be on the lookout for the next book in this series: Defying the Odds: the 2016 Elections and American Politics.

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Defying the Odds

Sunday, May 13, 2012

More Fundamentals

Six months before election day, electoral fundamentals favor Republicans according to the latest Resurgent Republic national survey of 1000 registered voters conducted April 30-May 3, 2012. The sample contains five percentage points more Democrats than Republicans (Democrats 35 percent, Republicans 30 percent), consistent with other recent national polling. ...

These results present a different perspective on the two candidates than much of the political punditry. It is Barack Obama, not Mitt Romney, who is viewed as outside the ideological mainstream. ...American voters' top priority remains the economy, and they overwhelmingly believe the country is stuck in a recession, President Obama's economic plan is not working, and that it's time to try something else. President Obama has spent much of 2012 talking about fairness, but center-right candidates should not shy away from this debate either, especially with Independents who prefer conservative definitions of fairness and opportunity. In addition, a wide majority of Independents believe President Obama's energy polices have been bad for the country. The fact that much of the President's early re-election messaging has centered on energy is a tacit acknowledgement of the potency of this issue in 2012.

We will see how voters' views change over the six months leading up to the 2012 election, but as of today President Obama could not win a referendum on his leadership and his record.

AP reports on dour views of the economy in new Associated Press-GfK poll.

And the gloomier outlook extends across party lines, including a steep decline in the share of Democrats who call the economy "good," down from 48 percent in February to just 31 percent now.

Almost two-thirds of Americans — 65 percent — disapprove of Obama's handling of gas prices, up from 58 percent in February. Nearly half, 44 percent, "strongly disapprove." And just 30 percent said they approve, down from 39 percent in February.

These findings come despite a steady decline in gas prices in recent weeks after a surge earlier in the year. The national average for a gallon of gasoline stood at $3.75, down from a 2012 peak of $3.94 on April 1....Of all the issues covered by the poll, Obama's ratings on gas prices were his worst.The public's views tilt negative on his handling of the overall economy, 52 percent disapprove while 46 percent approve. In February, Americans were about evenly divided on his handling of the issue.