Robocars

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Transcript of Robocars

RobocarsSaving LivesEnergyInnovationPolicyParkingTrafficDeliverbotsEngineeringKill 34,000 people each year in USA - #3 in years of life lost

USA NHTSA: $871 billion cost of accidents ($600B suffering) - 9% of GDP, 29 cents/mile (0,13 €/km)50 billion hours spent driving - 8% of GDPHuman Drivers41 hours/year lost to congestion3 parking spaces per car, 60% of land in LAOver 25% of our energy budget, more of the CO21.7 light years driving!The RealityThey are comingCars galore with:Self parkingLane keeping warning/assistAutomatic Cruise ControlPedestrian and collision detection/warning/brakingProgrammers can save the worldWhat car do I need today?"The right vehicle for the trip"Mostly an ultralightBuy what you use, not what you might needYour car rents itself outOr don't buy at allAll the economics of cars changeGreener than transit…Who killed the electric car?The battery killed the electric carPeople won't tolerate:CostLimited RangeLong recharge timePoor availability of fast rechargeWe can make an efficient short-range electric, but sales are modest.It's all about marketing!Time for Apollo-like resolveRange not a factorAcceleration and speed not a factorComfort much more of a factor, soft ride.Want to be sharableDifferent safety constraintsSmall width, single passenger or face-to-face, sleepers, RVsRobots don't care how convenient it is to refuelThey don't care about waiting.They don't park (they can wait anywhere)Enables all alternative fuelsWe know how to make this car, not how to sell itRobocars save the electric car200 million tons CO2Ending overseas oil importsPolitical issuesLegal, but...Must not be over-regulatedJurisdictions will competePossibly Singapore, China, India, Israel, JapanChildren, the aged, the Drunk, some JewsFreedomCan we order our robocar to do something illegal?Will police have the power to redirect it?Will the police ever have grounds to pull you over?Will you have freedom to tinker?New traffic code:Be safeDon’t unfairly impede othersThey don’t park they stand.Can stand in driveways, in front of hydrants, double and triple parkedThe more cars on road, the more road capacityPrivacyBarriersFear - PDLBKBRRegulatorsTerrorists – will drive-by-wire be banned?In military, then on back streetsNo need to own expensive, rarely used goods – “room of requirement”Vast alteration of the nature of retailAlso changes airports, farms etc.Brad Templeton, Singularity UniversitySo NOT speaking for GoogleMoore's LawComes to transportation

Competing Innovators vs. 19th century approaches vs. Municipal AdministratorsReduced Accidents &Road MeteringHalf-width carsRemoving parked carsRedirecting StreetsShorter headwaysAs much as 15x more capacityMike & MaaikeMobilityonDemandA pleasant work environment, face to faceNo central control or new infrastructureThe "poor man's teleporter"What car do I need for my life?DownsidesLonger tripsSuper SprawlComputer Intrusion, BugsCameras and sensors everywhere, in and out of the carAlways recording, if only for test suiteYour own technology should not betray youYes, our cell phones already do thisRental vehicles will invade more than owned onesRentals want to track damage, billing and trip recordsWe can decide what architecture is in place – Anonymous taxi is possible.Bottom-up vs central controlPlus 100 cars in Gothenberg in 2017iPhone Speed or Industrial Speed?DriveDeliverRefuelParkOne VitalItalian ProductNetherlands: 640 deathsand 162 cyclistsIndia: 142,000 people -- worst in the world.Similar per capita, but 7x worse, per car, than the USA. 5L seriously injured.1.2 million kmPolice: 60,000 deadSouth China U: 220,000 to 300,000!10x USA per car!270 killed21,000 injured(25% less per km than USA)Two CulturesA car with a computerA computer with wheels40% of fatalities due to drinkingFruede am Fahren?Freude an FreizeitFour Models1. Retain Traditional Cars2. Buy private robocars3. Buy a better car, hire it out4. Summon Robotaxi(at first instead of 2nd car)Germany: 3,400 deaths(about 65% of USA per km)