Grammys: Taylor Swift, Macklemore, Daft Punk will win big

FILE - In this April 17, 2013 file photo, Thomas Bangalter, left, and Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo, from the music group, Daft Punk, pose for a portrait in Los Angeles. Daft Punk has five nominations at Sunday, Jan. 26, 2014 Grammy Awards, including album of the year for Random Access Memories and record of the year for Get Lucky. (Photo by Matt Sayles/Invision/AP, File)
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Matt Sayles
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Having spent decades rewarding highly mainstream artists and well-established acts, the Recording Academy has now turned its focus to honoring newer, edgier artists. Correspondingly, voters have recently embraced indie rock -- sometimes to a fault -- with a passion once reserved for adult contemporary and classic rock.

The real turning point came in 2011, when voters chose Arcade Fire's "The Suburbs" for album of the year over superior offerings from Eminem, Katy Perry and Lady Gaga. The new direction was underscored last year, as Mumford & Sons' mediocre "Babel" trumped a rather weak field in that same category.

Look for the trend to continue, at least to some extent, as the 2014 Grammy Awards are handed out Sunday in Los Angeles. Newcomers are well-represented in most of the major categories, with some ranking as favorites to win multiple awards.

I don't expect any artist to have an Adele-type night, dominating the Grammy competition the way that soul-pop star did in 2012. Instead, I see a much more balanced affair, with the bounty split between numerous artists and genres.

Handicapping the Grammy race is always tricky. Unlike with the Oscars, there are no lead-up award shows to help separate the real contenders from the pretenders.

So, I'll just peer into my foggy crystal ball and use my gut as my guide. The following are my predictions for the "general field" Grammy Awards:

The Breakdown: It's not as weak a field as last year's, which ranked among the worst in Grammy history, but it's close. There's only one truly great album in the mix: "Good Kid, M.A.A.D City." Yet the Recording Academy's track record at rewarding hip-hop artists with its biggest prize is downright pathetic -- just ask Kanye West. Still, Lamar seems to have a slightly better chance than Bareilles, a middle-of-the-road piano rocker who shouldn't even have been nominated.

Voters might see this as an opportunity to show the cool kids that they listen to electronic music, and thus overvalue a so-so Daft Punk record, or again reward longtime Grammy sweetheart Swift. "The Heist" definitely is a contender, but this award is rarely given to debut recordings.

American musician Ben Haggerty, better known by his stage name Macklemore, right, and his producer Ryan Lewis pose for a portrait at Irving Plaza in New York on Nov. 20, 2012. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are top contenders at the Grammy Awards on Sunday, Jan. 26, 2014, with seven nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for 'Same Love.' Their debut album, 'The Heist,' is up for album of the year and best rap album, while the massive hit 'Thrift Shop' is nominated for best rap song and rap performance. The duo's other hit, 'Can't Hold Us,' will compete for best music video. (Carlo Allegri/Invision/AP)

The breakdown: It was a great year for singles, so it's only fitting that this field is absolutely loaded. Indeed, I won't be surprised if any one of these five nominees ends up scoring Grammy gold. I'm wholeheartedly rooting for "Royals," which was my pick for the best song of 2013. However, I'm concerned that voters might not think quite so highly of Lorde -- given that they ridiculously snubbed the young star in the album and new artist categories.

I have to think the two favorites are "Blurred Lines" and "Get Lucky," so Williams (who is featured on both cuts) should start clearing off space on his mantel. But Mars, a man who drops hits like a middle linebacker, might have something to say about that. Then there's "Radioactive," the rare rocker that could top the pop offerings.

The breakdown: Again, there are a lot of worthy choices here. Yet the Pink, Mars and Perry tunes aren't really exceptional offerings, but rather just more gold from three artists with the Midas touch. On the other hand, "Royals" stands as a dynamic opening argument that Lorde (whose given name is Ella Yelich O'Connor) should be ranked among the most significant young artists in music. It's also the best song of the bunch, which should count for something. Its main competition appears to be "Same Love," a same-sex-marriage anthem that ranks as one of the more memorable "message" songs in recent years.

The Breakdown: In a perfect world, this race wouldn't even be close. Lamar is, by far, the most deserving of the candidates. His debut, "Good Kid, M.A.A.D City," wasn't just one of 2012's finest albums -- it's a work that seems destined to be included on all-time-best hip-hop lists for decades to come. Unfortunately, the Grammys aren't handed out in a perfect world, and the Recording Academy's track record with honoring rappers in this category is deplorable. As hard as it is to believe, no hip-hop act has been named best new artist in the 21st century.

That could also work against Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, although their continued presence on the pop charts certainly improves their odds of winning. They seemingly stand a better chance than Sheeran, who really can't be considered a "new" artist anymore, and Blake, whose massive fame in his native U.K. has yet to translate on this side of the Atlantic. Then there's Musgraves, a superb singer-songwriter who could be a dominant figure in country music for years to come.