JON COUTURE: Four possible foes not to be forgotten

It's easy to get lost in the daily back-and-forth of the AL East race, even if things have momentarily calmed — the lead building back to six going into Wednesday means New York's all of one game closer than they were a month prior.

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By JON COUTURE

southcoasttoday.com

By JON COUTURE

Posted Aug. 23, 2007 at 12:10 AM

By JON COUTURE
Posted Aug. 23, 2007 at 12:10 AM

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It's easy to get lost in the daily back-and-forth of the AL East race, even if things have momentarily calmed — the lead building back to six going into Wednesday means New York's all of one game closer than they were a month prior.

With that in mind, it's well worth looking slightly beyond to a league-wide playoff race 1967 pulled off in a generation without the wild card.

Four division races are within three games. Sixteen teams — more than half the league — are within a half-dozen games of a playoff spot. There's postseason fever in Colorado, Milwaukee, Chicago, even St. Louis, who has spent exactly two days above .500 all season.

The Cardinals proved last October a regular-season pedigree isn't necessary for World Series glory, but it certainly helps. Even if they qualify for the playoffs, there aren't 16 teams with a legitimate shot at a world championship.

Along with the Red Sox, here's four with arguably the best. (The Yankees would make five, but they aren't exactly unknown.)

Currently: AL Wild Card leaders, 2½ back in AL West.

What's Left: Seven each left with last-place Texas and division leading Los Anaheim.

Why They'll Win: The Mariners aren't known for their patience at the plate, but they also strike out less than all but the Twins. They don't hit for power, but they do hit for average.

But most of all, their bullpen is among the league's best. Top setup man George Sherrill and closer J.J. Putz have combined for a 1.61 ERA this season, even with Sherrill allowing runs in three recent appearances.

Why They Won't: The starters can't keep up. Jeff Weaver's been outstanding this month, but both Jarrod Washburn and Felix Hernandez have been inconsistent.

Plus, as mentioned above, they're a high-average team that's among the league's worst in extra-base hits.

How Boston Matches Up: Safeco Field's never been a favorite, but its pitcher-friendly nature helps. The Sox went 4-5 against the Mariners, with David Ortiz batting .371 (13-for-35) and Kevin Youkilis posting five doubles in nine games.

Currently: Back and forth with Detroit in the Central.

What's Left: A whopping nine games with the Royals, plus another series with the reeling Tigers.

Why They'll Win: Watching their main rivals lose Gary Sheffield ought to help finish the division race, but the AL's best pitching in the past month means more in the long run.

Fausto Carmona, C.C. Sabathia and Jake Westbrook all have ERAs under 2.50 since Aug. 1.

Why They Won't: Much like the Sox, the pitching's saved a lack of run production — 28th in the majors in August, middle of the AL for the year. Only the Devil Rays have more strikeouts this season.

How Boston Matches Up: The Sox went 5-2 vs. Cleveland, winning three of four at Jacobs Field. For a team not hitting many homers, they have eight in seven games against the Tribe.

Currently: Cruising home with the NL's best record, though Philadelphia and Atlanta are in pursuit.

What's Left: A difficult slate, packed with games against the teams chasing them.

Why They'll Win: An offense that's scored a lot of runs lately, plus one of the league's best pitching staffs. They're second in the NL in both overall ERA and bullpen ERA.

And that's before a likely boost from Pedro Martinez.

Why They Won't: They've feasted on weak competition, taking a 34-35 record into Wednesday against better-than-.500 teams. And after Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez, the starters have looked ghastly lately.

How Boston Matches Up: In a seven-game series, they'd get lefties Glavine and Oliver Perez. Boston's a .500 team against lefty starters, though their offensive numbers versus righties are more or less the same.

Currently: NL Wild Card leaders, waiting for the Diamondbacks to come back to earth in the West.

What's Left: Four with the dreadful Pirates, plus multiple series with everyone else in the bad West division.

Why They'll Win: Across the board, the league's best pitching — they're tops in ERA, walks per game, homers allowed, relief ERA, you name it.

And their numbers on the road, away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, are still among the best in baseball.

Why They Won't: An entirely average offense, with one .300 hitter (Brian Giles) and more strikeouts than all but the Marlins, who are on a record pace for fanning.

(They're having their best month of the season average-wise: .256, 23rd in baseball. Another squad that needs their strong arms.)

How Boston Matches Up: It's hard to imagine any team matching up well against a trio of Chris Young, Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux in a seven-game series, wherever it is.