by Eric Prisbell, USA TODAY Sports

by Eric Prisbell, USA TODAY Sports

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - John Calipari says he wakes up every day without a clue how his team will play. He says some freshmen remain overwhelmed. And today he watched players choose not to fight back against a desperate Arkansas team and its physical defense.

"Their staff's saying as we walk off, 'They are soft,' Calipari said after a deflating 73-60 loss to the Razorbacks. "And I have to say, 'That's what it looks like.' It's just, when you get overwhelmed, you get anxiety, that's what happens. You back up. And we got a young team."

Kentucky is now squarely on the NCAA tournament cut line. There is no shame in losing at Arkansas â?? Florida did the same Feb. 5 â?? but the loss reaffirmed how small the Wildcats' margin for error is with two weeks left until selection Sunday. They may have to beat SEC-leading Florida in the regular season finale or in the SEC tournament in order to squeeze into the NCAA tournament.

Of course, it could be worse.

What the Wildcats (20-9, 11-5 SEC) have not done is play their way out of at-large consideration. One team that took a significant step in that direction today was fellow SEC cohort Mississippi, which lost in Starkville to the worst power conference team in the nation, lowly Mississippi State, which is ranked 237th in the RPI.

At the time other bubble teams such as Ole Miss and Virginia possess flawed resumes, Kentucky has a less significant problem: a bland profile. Though the Wildcats have just one quality victory, Feb. 23 against Missouri, they have not lost to a team outside the RPI's top 100 all season.

A bigger problem for Calipari is what to expect on a game-to-game basis with this bunch, which has to re-prove itself to the NCAA tournament selection committee without star Nerlens Noel, who suffered a season-ending knee injury Feb. 12 at Florida.

In his absence, Kentucky has been nothing if not uneven. A 30-point loss at Tennessee. A season-stabilizing victory against likely NCAA tournament team Missouri. And now another setback against a team that has won all but one game at home all season.

The statistics spoke volumes about Kentucky's inability or unwillingness to match Arkansas' physicality. Arkansas forced 19 turnovers and outscored Kentucky, 30-2, in points off turnovers. The Razorbacks grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and attempted 26 more field goal attempts than the Wildcats. On top of all that, Kentucky's five assists was the lowest total for the Wildcats during Calipari's four-year tenure.

"I'm real surprised," Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein said. "To me, it felt we had turned the corner from this right here, what we just went through. It seemed like we were past that. But we've got to go back to practice and try to fix it."

Calipari said he didn't know if his team was past any type of relapse or regression.

"We're different because we are brand new â?¦" said Calipari, referring to the loss of Noel. "But you must fight. You must have a will to win. And winning must be important, not just how you played. And you must want to be coached and challenged and pushed, from not only the staff; from within. You've got to accept that."

Another problem, Calipari said, is that when some players embrace success, "especially when you think the other team's just going to play like it's an AAU game, like they're just not gonna play hard. You think, 'Why are playing so hard? Why are you up all over me?' Because they want to win."

No season at Kentucky is ever devoid of pressure. Almost every game serves as a referendum on players and the coach. But there has been less than usual for Calipari this season because of two accomplishments: last season's national championship and the historically strong recruiting class that he is assembling for next season.

If this group of freshmen (minus Noel) can't carry the Wildcats into the NCAA tournament, a new crop that includes touted guards Aaron and Andrew Harrison from Texas and wing James Young from Michigan, among others, will be expected to do so as soon as they arrive on campus in the fall.

For the past three years, the formula has worked nearly perfectly for Calipari: Recruit the best players in the country, win a slew of games and then bid most of them farewell and best wishes in the NBA. And repeat.

This year has brought more challenges. But in a season as volatile as this one, how it concludes is anyone's guess. As usual, Kentucky stands as one of the nation's more compelling story lines as the season nears its climax.

It was not hard to see why Arkansas entered the game with a 16-1 record at Bud Walton Arena while having won just one of 11 games in road or neutral court contests. The student section was rocking, stirring memories of Arkansas' glory years nearly two decades ago.

One student sitting front row even dressed up as Calipari and displayed a sign that read "Archie I can't coach you," in reference to Archie Goodwin, a native of Little Rock, and Calipari calling some players "not real coachable" after the 30-point loss at Tennessee. Calipari then backpedaled on those comments the next day on his personal Web site.

But concerns about this team's willingness to match an opponent's fight persist. And now the Wildcats must walk a narrow path for two weeks if they hope to return to the NCAA tournament. As Calipari knows, the key during this topsy-turvy season is just to make the field of 68 because the only thing expected this March is the unexpected.

"We're still there," Calipari said. "Again, we've got a 7-footer that can play and block shots. We've got shooters. We've got enough players and enough athletes to do this â?? and really make a run â?? if we choose to. But you must fight."