Mad Dash for the Low End

Monday, February 11, 2008

If anyone still doubts that low-income folks make good customers, they should talk to executives from Nokia (NOK). The Finnish company owes its 40% share of the global handset market in large part to residents of places like Calcutta, Lagos, and Shanghai, many of whom live on just a few dollars a day. Now, with the No. 3 player, Motorola (MOT), on the ropes, Nokia has an opportunity to extend that lead. But other rivals are eyeing the Finns’ success and stepping up efforts to woo those same people.

Motorola’s woes create a substantial opening. The company is suffering after missteps in emerging markets and its failure to develop a new model as popular as its smash hit Razr, and management may sell the handset business. Moto is particularly vulnerable in Latin America, where the U.S. company and Nokia are neck-and-neck at about 26% each. “Motorola is holding up pretty well in its home territory. But if the weakness spreads, there is potential for rivals to take market share,” says Neil Mawston, an analyst at Strategy Analytics. By Jack Ewing

If anyone still doubts that low-income folks make good customers, they should talk to executives from Nokia (NOK). The Finnish company owes its 40% share of the global handset market in large part to residents of places like Calcutta, Lagos, and Shanghai, many of whom live on just a few dollars a day. Now, with the No. 3 player, Motorola (MOT), on the ropes, Nokia has an opportunity to extend that lead. But other rivals are eyeing the Finns’ success and stepping up efforts to woo those same people.

Motorola’s woes create a substantial opening. The company is suffering after missteps in emerging markets and its failure to develop a new model as popular as its smash hit Razr, and management may sell the handset business. Moto is particularly vulnerable in Latin America, where the U.S. company and Nokia are neck-and-neck at about 26% each. “Motorola is holding up pretty well in its home territory. But if the weakness spreads, there is potential for rivals to take market share,” says Neil Mawston, an analyst at Strategy Analytics.

There’s no shortage of contenders. Despite Nokia’s intimidating position?it has 46% of the market in Asia and 66% in Africa, Mawston estimates?challengers sense an opening as poorer users trade up to better models with features such as digital cameras or music players. Sony Ericsson, for instance, on Jan. 24 launched two new phones in India, including one with speakers that doubles as an AM/FM radio. “If we’re going to grow our share, we need to address [the low-end] market,” says Howard Lewis, Sony Ericsson’s chief of entry-level handsets.

Nokia, though, has proven it can exploit market turmoil to build sales, and it goes into battle with formidable advantages. The company earned an industry-leading operating profit margin of 25% on handset sales in the fourth quarter of 2007. It is one of the most efficient manufacturers on the planet and has factories in or near all of the biggest markets. And Nokia invested more than $8 billion in research and development last year. That helped it offer models for every market segment, from top-of-the-line devices with GPS and high-resolution cameras to mass-market phones with menus in some 80 languages.