Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

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249 PP 38 Podemos 33 PSOE 23 ERC 7 PNV 0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

Why is this is specifically a western hypocrisy? Morocco recognises the state of Palestine, but mentione Western Sahara...

Beyond that, Coloniac is pretty much spot on - and there is always the fact that, every country has its own interests, and ideological biases, in those sorts of questions.

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.