NAR: 3Q U.S. home prices up 4.8%, sales down 2.6%

Low inventory levels of moderately priced homes continued to stifle home sales, even as it maintained the trend of increasing metro market prices, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The national median existing single-family home price in the third quarter was $266,900, up 4.8 percent year-to-year ($254,700). That’s down a bit from the second quarter when median sales prices increased 4.9 percent year-to-year.

Single-family home prices increased in 93 percent of measured U.S. markets last quarter, with 166 out of 178 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) showing sales price gains year-to-year. Eighteen metro areas (10 percent) experienced double-digit increases, down from 24 in the second quarter.

“Though inventory is more than adequate on the upper-end market, the insufficient supply of low- to mid-priced homes in metro markets with strong job growth continues to drive up prices and push prospective buyers out of the market,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

Total existing-home sales – single-family homes and condos – decreased 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.273 million in the third quarter, down from 5.413 million in the second quarter. That number is 2.4 percent lower than the 5.403 million pace during the third quarter of 2017.

“A strong economy and consistent job growth should be driving up home sales; however, would-be homebuyers are struggling to find a home they can afford,” says Yun. “As mortgage rates continue to rise, reaching the decade’s highest rates this quarter, an increase in the supply of affordable homes has become even more important to help temper price growth across the country.”

At the end of the third quarter, 1.88 million existing homes were available for sale, 1.1 percent above the 1.86 million homes for sale at the end of the third quarter in 2017. The average supply during the third quarter was 4.3 months – up from 4.2 months in the third quarter of last year.

National family median income rose to $76,6084 in the third quarter, but overall affordability decreased from a year ago because of higher mortgage rates and home prices. To purchase a single-family home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent downpayment would need an income of $64,480, while a 10 percent downpayment would require an income of $61,086, and $54,299 would be necessary for a 20 percent downpayment.

“Aspiring middle-class homebuyers continue to face affordability issues, as buyers are increasingly being priced out in the West while the rest of the country struggles, too,” says Yun. “The market desperately needs homebuilders to begin constructing more moderately priced single-family home and condominiums to help satisfy demand and mitigate rapid price growth.”

The five most expensive housing markets in the third quarter were the San Jose, California metro area, where the median existing single-family price was $1,300,000; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California, $989,000; Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, California, $830,000; urban Honolulu, $818,600; and San Diego-Carlsbad, $650,000.

Metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 61 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $244,100 in the third quarter, up 2.3 percent from the third quarter of 2017 ($238,600). Eighty-two percent of metro areas showed gains in median condo prices from a year ago.

Regional breakdown

Total existing-home sales in the Northeast slipped 0.5 percent from last quarter and were down 3.8 percent from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast was $301,500 in the third quarter, up 6.1 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 0.3 percent in the third quarter and are 1.0 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest grew 2.1 percent to $206,800 in the third quarter from the same quarter a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South declined 4.4 percent in the third quarter but are 0.3 percent higher than the third quarter of 2017. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $234,300 in the third quarter, 3.4 percent above a year ago.

In the West, existing-home sales in the third quarter decreased by 2.9 percent and are 7.9 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West increased 4.8 percent to $395,500 in the third quarter from the third quarter of 2017.