Vegas Sports Masters

No matter how big a mismatch that Aaron Rodgers vs. Josh McCown might seem to be in the quarterback battle in Monday Night’s Chicago Bears/Green Bay Packers matchup…it’s not as bad on paper as what we saw last week when Kellen Clemens was facing the Seattle Seahawks.

Yet, Clemens and the St. Louis Rams covered their double digit spread…and were positioned to pull off an outright upset in the final moments of the game.

*McCown looks to be better than Clemens based on what we saw in a half at Washington

*Green Bay’s defense is nowhere near as scary as what Seattle had on the field last week

*Chicago had a bye last week while Green Bay was playing a higher energy rivalry game on the road

We’re not saying this is going to be a replay of last week. That’s unlikely anyway given how soft the Chicago defense has been. This could be a close game in a shootout rather than a boring grinder. And, Chicago could definitely spring an upset even with their backup quarterback if Green Bay shows up as flat as Seattle did.

Won-Lost Records (opponents so far)

Chicago: 4-3 (#24 schedule in USA Today)

Green Bay: 5-2 (#17 schedule in USA Today)

Green Bay’s losses were on the road against San Francisco and Cincinnati. There’s certainly no shame in either decision, particularly since the Packers should have WON against the Bengals. They’re on the short list of Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, even if they’re probably a point or two worse than their toughest cohorts in Power Ratings. Chicago basically played Wildcard caliber ball under Cutler once you adjust for schedule strength. They were outclassed at home by New Orleans, and needed cheap points to get results vs. Pittsburgh and the NY Giants. This year’s team is a lot more fun to watch than the Bears’ teams of the past. They may not be any better.

Yards-Per Play

Chicago: 6.1 on offense, 6.2 on defense

Green Bay: 6.5 on offense, 5.5 on defense

Again, Chicago has played a softer schedule…so that negative differential is a strike against them. Green Bay has played roughly a league average schedule. Popping at massive +1.0 differential confirms their status as an elite team. And, the Packers always seem to be dealing with injuries! If they can enter January healthy, it would be tough at that time to suggest anyone in the NFC is clearly better.

Turnover Differential

Chicago: +7

Green Bay: -2

Chicago still has a knack for forcing turnovers. But, the defense seems to worry too much about that at the expense of shutting people down. Their overall defensive numbers are abysmal. This helps alleviate that a bit. Disappointing number for the Packers, who’s soft defense has forced only one takeaway or less in six of their seven games. THAT’s going to matter in January, especially if the team is on the road against Seattle or New Orleans.

Market Performance

Chicago: 1-5-1 ATS

Green Bay: 4-2-1 ATS

Chicago’s been a disaster against the spread this year, unable to live up to all the preseason hype about their new head coach. Stat-based formulas in particular have had trouble overrating this team’s win potential on a week-to-week basis. That being said…the line adjustment to the quarterback change may have reversed all that. Maybe they shouldn't have been pick-em at home vs. New Orleans, or just +3 at Detroit. Now they’re getting double digits, which is an entirely different animal. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in some measures, 4-3 ATS in others depending on how you grade their 2-point win at Baltimore. They are 3-0 ATS at home, winning by 18, 13, and 18 on the scoreboard.

Current Line: Green Bay by 10.5, total 51

Here’s a quick way to think about it. How do the Bears with McCown measure up to Washington with a hobbled RGIII, Detroit without Megatron, and Cleveland with Weeden at quarterback? In order, those were the 18-13-18 victory margins we just referenced. Get that figured out, make a determination on Green Bay’s intensity…and the game picks itself.

If only it were so easy! Games don’t pick themselves unless you’re sure you have ALL the information you need to make the right choice! That’s where the exclusive TEAM HANDICAPPING approach of JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK comes in. Our scouts, sources, statheads, computer programmers, and Wise Guy connections cover all the bases. Then JIM HURLEY GETS YOU ON THE WINNER!

We’re going to a special BIG PLAY PREVIEW schedule this week in the NOTEBOOK because a couple of truly blockbuster games have popped up on the Thursday Night college football card. Here’s what’s coming up:

Tuesday: an early look at Oklahoma/Baylor (Thursday Thriller #1)

Wednesday: an early look at Oregon/Stanford (Thursday Thriller #2)

Thursday: Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings in the NFL

Friday: an early look at LSU/Alabama (biggest game of the year in the SEC Saturday!)

What a week!! And, every dollar you make Monday Night in Bears/Packers can multiply itself over several times during all the fun and thrills. Take care of business so you can GET THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!