Hand sanitizer spread faster than the flu

America seems to have maxed out on the germ-fighting gel

The flu may be spreading quickly this season, but if sales of hand sanitizer are any indication, germaphobia has already infected every corner of America.

The nation’s hands are saturated with the ethyl-alcohol-based bacteria beater, studies show. Hand sanitizer sales totaled $173.5 million in 2012, up less than 1% versus the year before, according to SymphonyIRI Group, a Chicago, Ill.-based market research firm. That figure, which accounts for purchases made at supermarkets, drug stores and mass market, hasn’t budged much in several years. The big exception was 2009, when the swine-flu outbreak prompted sales to spike to $301 million. “We would have to see something pretty dramatic for hand sanitizers to reach those levels again,” says Josh Green, CEO of Panjiva, a company that tracks imports of consumer products.

Though it only first came onto the market in 1996, and the rows of 2-ounce plastic bottles have displaced chewing gum in many checkout aisles, sales growth appears to have stalled, according to a recent survey by Global Industry Analysts, a San Jose, Calif.-based market research firm. Going forward, sales are expected to increase modestly to just over $226 million by 2018, the report says.

After a relatively mild flu season a year ago, this year’s virus hit in November, took hold in December and spread in January. “The big surprise was how early it came back,” says Dr. William Schaffner, chair of the department of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville. Over the weekend, New York joined Massachusetts in declaring a public health emergency after the number of patients admitted to hospitals statewide rose 55% during the preceding week. Already, there have been reported shortages in flu vaccine.

Should this flu season get much worse, experts say, there could end up being a sanitizer shortage too, as production has tapered off. “If we’re still in the early stages of the spread, we’re certainly going to find that there aren’t enough hand sanitizers on hand,” Green says. Retailers did not appear to expect an epidemic this year — particularly after the warm winter of 2011. The number of tractor-trailer-size shipping containers delivering hand sanitizer rose 33% year-over-year in 2012, versus a 175% spike in 2009, when the U.S. public, doctors and retailers were all collectively braced for swine flu.

Once used mainly in hospitals, sanitizer is now widely available in schools, supermarkets and offices, Schaffner says. “They became routine for many people,” he says, of the 2009 outbreak. “There was a huge emphasis on hand-washing as a vaccine was not available early.” In fact, sales of gels and wipes in the U.S. soared more than 70% year-over-year to $118 million in the 24 weeks ended Oct. 3, 2009, at the peak of the swine flu epidemic, according to data released at the time by market research Nielsen. Theoretically, there is room for more growth than that, according to Gojo Industries, maker of Purell. Just 20% of U.S. households currently purchase hand sanitizer once or more per year, says Samantha Williams, a company spokeswoman.

Still, the effectiveness of the sanitizer remains uncertain. Although they might help fight infection in hospitals, the prevalence of these gels in schools and kitchens has had no discernible impact on flu cases. In fact, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which regulates sanitizers, doesn’t allow manufacturers to make any antiviral claims. As for combating bacteria, “they are as effective as soap and water,” Williams says.

There were between 183,000 and 378,000 hospitalizations due to H1N1 between April 2009 and January 2010, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, despite the spike in sanitizer sales. “The evidence doesn’t demonstrate a specific benefit of hand sanitizers for flu,” says Dr. Ronald B. Turner, a professor of pediatrics at the University of Virginia School of Medicine. Nor do they prevent the common cold, according to a 2012 study he published in the journal “Clinical Infectious Diseases.” Flu is just as likely to be spread through coughing and sneezing as via hand contact, he says.

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