Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Puttin' on the Brakes...

So this morning I did a bad bad thing. I listened to the sports radio despite my current ban...All the yahoos were out in full force claiming the Yankees are done. Seems to me like we've had this early-season conversation a few times before.

As a Sox fan it is very tempting to jump all over the Yankees right now. A sweep, a four-game lead. As well, the Yankees are rushing Hughes up to pitch this week despite saying this wouldn't happen...3 of their 5 starters are on the DL. Their bullpen is already tired and looks very weak. But we've got to stay focused and realistic here.

The Yankees lineup is silly. They are going to score a bazillion runs and there are a lot of teams with bad pitching out there right now. They will win many of those games. I was too lazy to look it up, but most of us agreed in a post last year that beating up on the bad teams is a great way to notch many wins...And they will again add Matsui to the mix...They will score a ton and just outscore teams.

They will also shower Clemens with money...They will also make trades for relievers...Their "lower" payroll will again skyrocket well over $200MM.They will be there all year.

The Sox, meanwhile, are winning with pitching, but have also lost many low scoring games due to lack of offense. They are scoring like crazy at home and go silent on the road. Until the Sox show consistency on the road and offensively, and Mussina and Wang do not come back, I am holding up my victory parade.

I do, however, think the Sox have vastly superior pitching in all aspects. The starting rotation from 1-5 at this point is better than the Yankees (and this will probably be the case for the entire season). The middle relief is better, and the closer is better. They have extra pitching in Pawtucket.

Manny hasn't started to hit, yet, and A-Rod will cool off a bit. Lowell looks like he is going to have a better year than last, as does Crisp. That lengthens the Sox lineup a lot which means they will eventually be consistent. And don't rule out the acquisition of another big bat at some point.

Playing at their current pace, the Sox would win 108 games. I don't think they'll get there, but (if they find offensive consistency), 100 is not out of the question. If they don't find that consistency (and struggle on the road) 93-95 wins...

With their lineup, I see the Yankees very capable of winning 92-93 games with their current pitching situation. If Mussina and Wang come back strong, they should make the playoffs, and could win 95-96 games.

That's kind of close to call, isn't it? There are a ton of what-ifs? And let's not forget the injuries...We saw what happened last year...

I am not being pessimistic here...just realistic. There are so many games to play, and such a small current sample size on which to make judgements.

Of course, another 3-game sweep in the Bronx could push me over the edge...

4 comments:

I agree mostly with what you're putting out there, especially with the fact that you shouldn't listen to the radio. They are incredibly stupid - I mean to the point that I wonder how they got their job. If Coco didn't hit that triple and get a little hot this weekend the radio-talking-heads would be calling for his head. They're idiots and it pisses me off.

I can't get that excited about an early season (April) sweep of the Yankees. Did I cheer? Hell yes, but there is a lot more season to go and at the rate that Youk is throwing himself around he's bound to get hurt. Twice last night he hurt himself going after a pop-up.

I'd like to see the team settle into a nice pace before I make any predictions about final numbers.

And this is playing out *exactly* like the 2005 season when the Yanks started something like 11-19 and still won the division. they struggled early and Giambi was finding his rhythm as he cycled onto a new program of HGH, they had not discovered Cano and Wang (Womack was their starting 2B for a while), and the pitching was a mess.