The Linemakers

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Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the LVH SuperBook, is convinced the point spread on the NFC Championship Game is short. Early in the week, bettors disagreed.

As of Tuesday afternoon at the SuperBook, four times more money had been bet on the underdog San Francisco 49ers than the Seattle Seahawks.

“The public is enthralled with San Francisco,” Salmons said. But the 20-year Vegas veteran is not.

Salmons likes to look at point spreads comparatively. He points out that the 49ers were 3-point underdogs at New Orleans in early November. When figuring in home field, Salmons said that makes those two teams equal.

The Saints were 6-point underdogs at Seattle in the regular season and 9-point dogs in the playoffs. Yet, the Seahawks are only 3- or 3.5-point favorites over the 49ers in Sunday’s late game (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox).

“All of that stuff tells me that this line is way short,” Salmons added.

Line: Seattle -3.5, Total: 39.5

Line movement and notes: The Seahawks could be found at -3.5 or -3 with added juice throughout Vegas early in the week. Stations and William Hill are among the books that moved to Seattle -3, with the vig sitting at -120 or -125. MGM Resorts was sitting at -3 (-130) midweek.

The total opened 41.5 at the LVH and was bet UNDER in early wagering. On Monday, the MGM took a bet from a professional player on UNDER 40.5, driving the total down to 39.5, assistant manager Jeff Stoneback told The Linemakers on Sporting News.

Every bet shop in town was dealing 39.5 for the total early in the week. Both meetings this season between the two NFC West rivals stayed UNDER the total, and the UNDER is 6-3-1 over the last 10 in this series.

Harbaugh vs. Carroll

This is the seventh meeting in the NFL between these former college rivals. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers are 4-2 against the Seahawks under Pete Carroll. But Seattle has covered the spread in the last four.

The last two games between these teams in Seattle have both been lopsided Seahawks victories.

Harbaugh led Stanford to two upset victories over Carroll’s heavily-favored Southern Cal teams when the two coaches were both in the Pac-12. Stanford was a 39-point underdog when the Cardinal beat USC 24-23 in 2007, Harbaugh’s first season. It was the biggest straight-up upset of the BCS era.

In 2009, the Cardinal ran it up on Trojans in a 55-21 win in Los Angeles, prompting Carroll to condescendingly ask Harbaugh “what’s your deal” during the post-game handshake. You can watch the video of that incident on YouTube.

Odds, Ends & Trends

-- Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 24-11 ATS as a starter in the NFL. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is 17-9-2 ATS as an NFL starter.

-- Weather: Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s with a 17 percent chance of rain but not much wind. Check wunderground.com for an updated forecast.

-- Injuries to watch: Seattle WR Percy Harvin (concussion) was questionable early in the week. … San Francisco CB Carlos Rogers (hamstring) began the week listed as questionable.

-- Kicking game: San Francisco K Phil Dawson has made 32 of 36 field goals with a long of 56 this season. He is 8-for-8 in the postseason for his career. This is his first playoff appearance since 2003 (Cleveland). … Seattle K Steven Hauschka is 33-for-35 on the season with a long of 53. He is 6-for-6 in two postseason games.

-- San Francisco is 3-7 straight-up, 2-8 against the spread, in its last 10 trips to Seattle.

-- The Seahawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games.

-- The San Francisco offense hasn’t been called for a false start in the playoffs, according to Sacramento Bee 49ers beat writer Matt Barrows.

-- San Francisco is averaging 5.7 yards per play in its last three games. Seattle is averaging 4.3 yards per play in its last three games, the fewest of any playoff team.

-- This will be the fourth straight road game for the 49ers. In the past two weeks, they’ve flown back-and-forth to Green Bay and Carolina.

The Linemakers' lean: Seattle’s home field is worth 4 points on its own, and the spread is as low as it is because San Francisco is the hottest team in the NFL and has the staunch backing of the betting public. Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks have owned the 49ers in Seattle, while the Niners have barely beaten the Seahawks when the teams have met at Candlestick Park. That indicates to us the Seahawks are the better team, and our power ratings give Seattle a 2-point edge on a neutral field.

Sunday’s game is San Francisco’s third straight on the road – and it’s at the toughest place to play in the entire league. That eventually catches up with the 49ers.

Also, Colin Kaepernick has not exactly been a model of consistency and faces a defense that gives any quarterback fits.

We’re also on UNDER, even though we rarely see totals below 40 in the NFL these days. Two of the league’s best defenses, the crowd noise and trends all support that pick. Seattle is on a run of six straight UNDERs, four of the last five meetings between these teams have stayed UNDER, and they are a combined 21-14 to the UNDER this season.

Lay the extra juice to get Seattle at -3, and make a smaller play on the UNDER.