Recent scatterometer imagery as well as microwave- derived winds support 25 to 30 knot winds. Upper-level analysis indicates a point source near the center with near-radial outflow enhanced by an upper-level low positioned south of Madagascar. Vertical wind shear remains moderate (20 knots) and continues to hamper convective development over the western semi-circle. SST remains favorable at 29 to 30 degrees celsius.

Numerical models indicate development is likely over the next 12-24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.