The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The handsome, maple-loving Black-throated Blue Warbler nests in the moist hardwood forests of northeastern North America. Audubon’s climate model projects a 100% shift in stable summer range, with concurrent 78% decrease in area of summer climate space. The Black-throated Blue Warbler is common in backyards and other varied habitats in the West Indies in the winter.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.