The Coming Hurricane Season Could Be Worse Than Last Year

Last year’s hurricane season was a doozy, despite the fact that
top forecasters were way off in their predictions of how many
tropical storms would actually strike the U.S.

But the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans June 1 to
Nov. 30, is indeed predicted to be "above average," according to
forecasters at Colorado State University. Meteorologists Philip
Klotzbach and William Gray at the university's Tropical
Meteorology Project predict 18 storms, nine of which will be
hurricanes, several news outlets reported.

In 2012, Colorado university team — which has been doing seasonal
hurricane forecasts for 30 years — named 10 storms and four
hurricanes. But what really happened was far worse: 10
hurricanes, including the enormous Sandy, which led to dozens of
deaths and billions of dollars in destruction.

This year, for the entire U.S. coastline, there is a 72% chance
of a major hurricane hitting land, USA Today noted. For the
East Coast, including Florida, the chance of a significant
slamming is 48 percent and the chance along the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, is 47%, the news
outlet reported.

The Tropical Meteorology Project forecast for the Atlantic basin,
which covers the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, noted that
of the nine hurricanes forecast, four of them will likely become
major hurricanes — categories 3, 4 or 5 — that can produce winds
of 111 mph and greater, Reuters
said.

Gray said one of the reasons for last year’s inaccurate forecast
was the lack of a predicted El Nino. "We thought an El Nino was
coming," he said, but they were obviously wrong. Another reason:
Seven of the 10 hurricanes were in the northeastern Atlantic, far
from land.

"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past
several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Nino
event this summer and fall are unlikely," Klotzbach said.
"Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear
across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive
for storm formation."

As it turns out, the Colorado State meteorologist’s seasonal
forecasts are often conservative. According to a USA Today
analysis, the team has under-forecast the amount of named
tropical storms and hurricanes seven times, has over-forecast
three times and has been "almost right — within two storms —
three times."

To give Gray and Klotzbach credit, their forecasts in 2010 and
2011 were good. In 2010, they predicted 15 storms, and 19 formed;
the next year, they forecast 16 storms, and 19 formed, USA Today
said.

The first named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian and Erin, according to the
newspaper.