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Two days before the anniversary of the Egyptian
revolution that forced Hosni Mubarak out on February 11, 2011, the newly
elected members of the Egyptian parliament (Majlis al-sha`b) convened
for the first time and endorsed a member of the Muslim Brethren as speaker. Saad
al-Katatni was elected on Monday receiving 399 votes out of 498 cast (80%).

The 59 year old botany professor was elected to
the current parliament as the representative from the province of Minya (south
of Cairo). However, he is not new to politics. Katatni is a seasoned legislator
who served as the leader of the Muslim Brethren parliamentary bloc between 2005
and 2010, when they ran as independents because, then, the Islamist movement
was not allowed to field candidates directly.

The Egyptian
results, compared to those of similar elections in Tunisia, Palestine, Iraq,
and Turkey suggest that in any fair and transparent elections in the Islamic
world, Islamist parties and their affiliates can easily win at least 40% of the
votes. In fact, in the case of Egypt, Islamist parties together won over 77% of
the seats. These results can be used as predictors of future elections in other
Arab and Islamic countries in the area. Arguably, if fair elections were to be
held in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman,
Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, Islamists are likely to win 40% or more of
the votes. The question, then, is no longer whether Islamists could win a
majority in elections, but which strain of Islamism and by how much.

By all accounts, the elections in Egypt were unprecedented. More than 30 million people
voted (over 60% of the eligible voters), and more than ten million of them
voted for the party of the Muslim Brethren, the Freedom and Justice Party (al-Hurriyya
wa-‘l-adala). This margin of victory allows that party to govern without
needing to form a coalition with any of the major parties. The party won 127
seats through the party list and 108 individual seats for a total of 235 seats.
The parliament consists of 498 elected members, ten appointed, for a total of 508
seats. They only need about 20 seats to establish a governing majority. Therefore,
the Freedom and Justice Party has many options to form a majority government.

The FJP could enter into a
coalition with al-Nur, the Salafi party that came second after winning 24% of
the votes, a result that surprised most observers. The FJP could also merge
with another Islamist party, the Center Party (al-Wasat), which won 10
seats, and attract some of the independent members. Alternatively, it can enter
into a governing coalition with both Islamist parties, a move that will
heighten secular politicians’ anxiety. The so-called liberal parties combined
won a mere 15% of the seats, led by the oldest party, al-Wafd, which
came in third after securing 38 seats. However, despite the weak performance of
al-Wafd, the FJP might be inclined to enter into a coalition with it
instead of one or both of the Islamist parties, which it considers direct competitors.

Regardless of the coalition choices the FJP may
make in the next few days, this body of elected representatives will be tested as
it faces a host of problems during this transition period. Importantly, the
leaders of the parliament must appoint a committee consisting of one hundred
members tasked with drafting the new constitution. The FJP will face pressure
from the right as well as from the left.

The ultraconservative al-Nur party, whose
supporters have generally shunned democracy as un-Islamic, will most likely
push for the inclusion of explicit language about the shari`ah being the
main source of law in the new constitution. Liberal politicians and western
governments will advocate for a constitution that favours secularism. It is
likely that a compromise will be struck that will enshrine shari`ah as a
main source of law. Short of that, and if leaders of the parliament cannot
reach consensus on this and other critical issues, the military would be likely
to intervene - a scenario favored by a number of military leaders.

One thing is certain however: the next
Egyptian president will not be allowed to consolidate power the way Mubarak and
his predecessors did in the past. The Muslim Brethren implicitly endorsed such
a plan. First, immediately after the fall of the regime, that party announced
that they will not field a presidential candidate. The move was interpreted as
reassurance to the Egyptian public and foreign governments that they are not
interested in a power grab. True as that may be, their actions did not mean
that they are uninterested in the position. Rather, they are interested in
reforming it. Second, all indications show that the Muslim Brethren favours a
ceremonial presidential position and a strong government under the oversight of
the parliament. Ultimately, this divested-power model might benefit Egyptian
society, which has suffered under authoritarian rule since independence. It may
also promote the emergence of the autonomous civil society institutions necessary
for accountable government.

The most important achievement of these
elections, however, remains the embrace of the electoral paradigm for the
determination of political legitimacy. Indeed, the ban on Islamists in the past
turned them into political martyrs. The Salafis’ rejection of democracy
attempted to discredit the representative governance model. Now, the
participation of more than one Islamist group in local and national elections
takes religious absolutism out of the equation and empowers peoples to
determine their political leaders and institutions; that in and by itself is a
step in the right direction.

Opinions expressed herein are the author’s, speaking as a
citizen on matters of public interest; not speaking for the university or any other organization with which he is affiliated.

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