What's Old is New Again

Google wants to make the App Store a second-class citizen. This much is clear
from the features the company has been rolling out over the past few months,
most notably at this year’s IO conference. Let’s take them one at a time:

Instant Apps have been around since 2016 in one form or another, but Google
continues to expand the offering. In a nutshell, an Instant App lets users
run an application simply by clicking on a link without ever visiting the App
Store. This technology requires developers to break their applications into
modular pieces of distinct functionality. Each of these pieces can then be
loaded individually onto a user’s phone without a visit to the App Store.
Instant Apps are also subject to a 2Mb size limit to ensure faster load times.

Slices take the modular architecture of Instant Apps one step further. They
allow developers to expose discrete pieces of functionality for Android to
surface to users in what it believes are relevant contexts. For example, a user
who searches for a restaurant on Google might see an OpenTable “reservations”
button embedded directly in the search results, allowing them to book a table
without ever entering the OpenTable app.

Finally there are App Actions. These are recommendations surfaced by Android to
use a particular app for a given type of action. For example, when a user
searches for Black Panther, Android can expose a button linking directly to a
ticket purchase in the Fandango app. It’s not clear yet whether App Actions can
link to Instant Apps, but I anticipate that this will eventually work
seamlessly.

I doubt that the App Store as we know it will disappear entirely: many games,
for example, require large packages that are ill suited to the Instant App
paradigm. Access to advanced hardware features is also restricted, though this
may change with time. It seems likely that a large percentage of the use cases
that take us into the App Store today will be entirely displaced by these
technologies.

These features allow Google to exert more control over user behavior and app
selection. App actions make Google the sole arbiter for which app wins a given
keyword (AOL keywords, anybody?). They also put Google
more directly involved in conversion/purchase behavior. Ultimately, they allow
Google to exploit the Android app ecosystem for the Assistant and its broader
voice platform.

Firms should be happy about lower friction. Proper use will likely increase
conversions. However, they should also be very wary of handing over the entire
customer experience to Google lest they find themselves in the same position as
Amazon merchants. But that train left the station a while ago. Finally, anybody
in 2nd place or lower in SEO should be terrified that they will be locked out of
App Actions.