6 comments:

I must cry foul here: These are absentee ballots returned but the votes themselves have not been counted. We cannot assume that all Republicans voted for Trump (don't forget little Marco) or the Democrats for Clinton, for that matter. And a friend of mine from Florida suggests that early voters could typically be members of the military and the elderly. Your typical US student doesn't rise that early (if at all).

Was your friend a chauffeur or janitor at the Embassy? Paranoid right-wingers obsessed with Fox News memes rarely pursue a career in the US diplomatic service. Sorry your pal's head is set to explode when Mrs Clinton wins!

Actually the polls were accurate about Brexit and showed the vote close but Leave ahead both before and after the murder of Jo Cox. In the 48 hours before the vote they were very close but everyone assumed a majority would vote Remain when they got to polling station.The final set of polls before the vote were as follows:The gap between internet and telephone polls, which has been a feature throughout the campaign, still seems to be present.

Online polls by Opinium, TNS and YouGov are close to a dead heat. The single phone poll by ComRes gives Remain a modest lead.Opinium and TNS put Leave ahead by very narrow margins: one point and two points respectively. YouGov also has the result practically neck and neck.In their full data table they have both Leave and Remain on 45% with 2% responding that they will not vote and 8% saying "don't know".However, when they weight the results for expected turnout and apply a "squeeze question" - asking people who are unsure which way they think they will end up voting - they reach headline figures of 49% for Leave and 51% for Remain.ComRes's telephone poll has Remain six points in the lead.