Boeing Co.
BA 1.10%
projected strong demand for jetliner financing to fund airlines’ appetite for new planes, while also acknowledging that demand continues to dwindle for its storied 747 jumbo jet.

The aerospace giant projects demand for $124 billion in jetliner financing next year as airlines need to fund more than 1,300 aircraft deliveries planned for 2015. It expects that to grow through the decade, reaching $156 billion in 2019.

Airlines and lessors “will continue to have access to highly efficient financing,” said
Tim Myers,
vice president for aircraft financial services at Boeing Capital Corp., the financing arm of the world’s biggest plane maker.

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Separately, Boeing said it would reduce monthly production of its 747-8 jetliner to 1.3 aircraft a month from 1.5 in September 2015, bringing annual deliveries to approximately 16 from 18.

The four-engine 747, with its distinctive hump, has long been an icon of international jet travel, but demand has dwindled as airlines have opted for smaller, twin-engine jetliners and the need for big cargo freighters has ebbed. Boeing last year said it was cutting 747 output to 1.5 aircraft a month from 1.75.

Boeing said it is “making this minor adjustment because the near-term recovery in the cargo market has not been as robust as expected” and it continues to believe in the “long-term strength of the freighter market.” The new planned cut enables “us to continue to run a healthy business,” it said.

The 747-8 version of the freighter, which Boeing first delivered in 2011, was intended to refresh the jumbo jet with a longer body, new
General Electric Co.
engines and a reshaped wing.

A 747-8 passenger model, capable of holding 467 passengers, followed in early 2012 and is operated today by
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
and
Air China Ltd.
Both versions list for about $368 million, before discounts.

But Boeing this year hasn’t managed to grow sales of the 747-8, with two cancellations negating two new orders. The company has a remaining backlog of 39 aircraft through November, including 26 passenger and 13 freighter aircraft.

Boeing may still have an opportunity for high-profile sales. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Air Force said it expected to purchase in fiscal year 2016 a yet-to-be-determined number of aircraft to serve as the next-generation presidential transport, Air Force One, replacing the aging pair of heavily modified 747-200s in use since 1990. The replacement jets would be handed over two years later with first operations in fiscal year 2023. Maintaining the presidential transport contract has long been a strategic goal for Boeing, but the 747-8 isn’t a shoo-in, said the spokeswoman, as “a number of aircraft may be viable replacement options.”

Mr. Myers said financing sources for plane deliveries are more global than in the past. China remains the largest source for global aircraft debt, ahead of Germany and Japan. U.S. lenders next year are poised to represent 9% of the market, Boeing projects.

Capital markets will finance 32% of deliveries, overtaking bank debt as the primary source of funding. That includes carriers issuing asset-backed bonds as well as a surge in private placements, Mr. Myers said.

Boeing plans to lower annual deliveries of its 747 jumbo jet to about 16 from 18. Above, the plane’s cockpit.
Bloomberg News

Even so, some areas of difficulty exist. Boeing is scheduled to deliver around $2 billion of aircraft to Russia next year at a time when sanctions over the country’s actions in Ukraine have limited capital access for local banks.

Mr. Myers said Boeing is working with Chinese and Middle East institutions to help secure delivery financing.

An issue for the U.S. plane maker is that the U.S. Export-Import Bank has ceased new dealings with Russia, Mr. Myers said. European export credit agencies are still open to backing Airbus deliveries to Russia. Another concern for the Chicago-based plane maker is continued uncertainty over the fate of Ex-Im Bank in the U.S.

Congress has battled over the future of the agency amid accusations by detractors it represents a market-distorting subsidy to industry.

The political uncertainty has caused some airlines to ask Boeing to backstop borrowing in case Ex-Im Bank doesn’t get reauthorized by Congress, Mr. Myers said.

“We think it is going to get reauthorized,” he added. Eliminating Ex-Im Bank would put Boeing at a competitive disadvantage over rivals that can still get national export credit backing, Mr. Myers said.

The agency is projected to be involved in delivery financing for around 13% of Boeing jets next year. The backing was much higher in the 2009 time frame when other funding sources had dried up amid the global financial crisis.

Export credit agencies around the world are expected to back 15% of total plane deliveries next year, Boeing projects.

The recent drop in oil prices so far has had little impact on funding availability, Mr. Myers said, adding demand for replacement jets hasn’t slowed. Even if oil remained at current low levels and pressure to field more fuel-efficient planes eases, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on delivery plans, he said.