Poll Analysis: The Senate is a toss-up

My analysis last Tuesday showed control of the Senate going to the Democrats with a 63.5% probability and 50 seats. I’ve added a bunch of new Senate polls since then, and things look tied up.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 15,370 times and there were 32,633 ties (which I presume would go to the Democrats), and Republicans control the Senate 51,997 times. So, in an election held today, Democrats would have a 48% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans would have a 52% probability of controlling the Senate.

Essentially, the Senate is a toss-up. Here are the most important changes since Tuesday.

In the Democrats’ favor, Indiana has gained some clarity from a couple of new polls that favor Democrat Evan Bayh over Republican Todd Young. Bayh’s chances have gone from 56% to 89%.

Three new polls in Missouri move the race in favor of Republican Sen. Roy Blunt over Democrat Jason Kander. Blunt has gone from a a 35% chance last Tuesday to a 78% chance of taking the seat today.

In Nevada, we have a battle between Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Joe Heck for Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) old seat. We have seven new polls and a couple of continuing polls since Tuesday, when Heck led in every poll. Today, Heck leads in 5 and Masto leads in 4 polls. Consequently, Heck’s chances have declined from 96% to 54%…pretty much a toss-up.

Today, we have eight new North Carolina polls and four carry-overs from last Tuesday, when the polls pretty evenly split between Democrat Deborah Ross and Republican Sen. Richard Burr. But the new polls have almost entirely gone against the Ross, and her chances have declined from 69% on Tuesday to 10% today.

In Pennsylvania, we have five new polls and five carry-over polls. The new polls have been a bit less favorable to Democrat Katie McGinty. Her chances against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey have declined a bit from 69% to 46%–basically the state is a toss-up.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 48.0%, Republicans control the Senate 52.0%.

Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.5 (1.0)

Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.5 (1.0)

Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (48, 52)

Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (48, 52)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

Democratic seats w/no election: 35

Independent seats w/no election: one

Republican seats w/no election: 30

Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine

Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21

Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one

Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold

Safe

+ Strong

+ Leans

+ Weak

Safe Democrat

46

Strong Democrat

1

47

Leans Democrat

1

1

48

Weak Democrat

0

0

0

48

Weak Republican

2

2

2

52

Leans Republican

3

3

50

Strong Republican

4

47

Safe Republican

43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

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There is only one US Senate seat I and anyone else in Washington state should give two figs for. That is the Senate race happening here. This thing is supposed to be concerned with local or state politics. It is fair to say that the incumbent is going to keep her seat. So it’s not a fun nor sexy race. Folks in Eastern Washington have a different opinion of the Senator than folks in the west. It’s the folks in the large western cities such as Seattle that will keep the Senator in office. One loss due to our system is that there are only two candidates for this Federal office. The Greens, Libertarians became also rans in the Primary and for all purposes so did the Republican candidate, so why not just call the goose cooked and not bother with this coronation. Washington state at least appears to be solidly a Democratic stronghold. This appearance is more than cosmetic, but also hides some strong Republican, and Independent Political passions. Which explains why we can have a Republican state Senate or House and have some US House seats that are as solidly Republican as is the Democratic seat. This pattern has been in place for decades, and yet it will at some point change. perhaps gradually or quickly, but probably not this election. As for the analysis of the polls isn’t all that much needed. Unless this is a tidal change year (in spite of all the weirdness it doesn’t appear that it is) the folks in office will hold onto their seats. One or two incumbents will loose their seat. For the most part the guy or gal from the party the former Senator is from is going to win, though in some cases it can be a coin toss as demonstrated by Bayh in Indiana. Bayh is a good guy and well it’s possible for the good guy or gal to actually win. The thing about Bayh is he’s not dyed Democratic blue and can actually get things done. And may even tweak his Democratic Senate mates noses from time to time. So again just tell me about the Washington State US Senate race as I can’t vote in the others. I ain’t no Senators son or born with a silver spoon in my mouth as those are the folks who may vote in two states.

The only thing that’s going to make the American political system any better is term limits for these arrogant bastards in the House and Senate. Maybe we should go back to US Senators being appointed to the Senate by their respective state legislatures. That is what the Founders intended – for the Senate to represent the state legislatures at the federal level. The House is the body that’s there to represent the people. The Senate is there to represent the state governments.

@1 Go screw yourself. A 51-seat Republican Senate is NOT good any way you slice it. And yes, it does affect Washington. Remember what Republicans did to the Ex-Im Bank? What does the Ex-IM Bank do? It finances sales of Boeing planes to foreign airlines, which creates jobs in our state. You’re out of your mind if you think what happens nationally doesn’t matter.

@3 I only vote for two of the 100 Senators in the US Senate. I get to vote for one this year. Or I get to cast my vote otherwise. That is the only Senator I’m voting for. The other 98 I have no say in whatsoever as far as voting for any of them. Most likely Washington state voters will return our current Senator to the Senate. Most of the Senators who are running will be returned to the Senate by the voters in their respective states. I have no say in what those folks do. Most likely the Senate will retain a slightly reduced Republican majority because the folks who are in office keep their seats. Boeing makes some damn fine planes, and as long as they do that Boeing will continue as a major force in the aviation industry. With or without the IM Bank. Still they are not too big to fail should a domestic or foreign competitor eclipse Boeing and show them to the bone yard that is the way of business. That would impact Washington state, but the company has already moved it’s headquarters to Chicago, opened lines in South Carolina, in spite of generous tax deals from Washington state, which all would have happened with or without the US Senate. And Boeing remains one of the big US military contractors, so any Senator from Washington state (even if they were a Green Party) is going to fight for Boeing getting those contracts, but not so much if the benefits and jobs go to other states.

@5 There was no direct election of Senators by the voters until Amendment XVII in 1913. Which did remove the states having any direct say in the Federal government. On this one the Koch Brothers are right. I’m not sure if we have a better or worse Senate with direct election. Or even better or worse Senators. Still the individual states get little say at the Federal level. Leaving the courts the only way a state can handle a dispute. And when a new Governor or AG comes into office the suit may no longer be pursued, no matter the interest of the state or its citizens.

@3 Are you saying you are unwilling to accept the wisdom of the voters in the other 32 Senate elections should the Republicans keep a majority. Are you expecting the loser of each race to congratulate the winner? Are you going to congratulate each and every winner of each race and accept the outcome? Don’t be a bitter Rabbit and please don’t burn the rum you may need some after election night. I may need some too. Does someone have some rum laid up for after the election for RR and me?

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