Ethanol Goals Passed By Congress Cannot Be Met: New Study

Promoted as a way for the U.S. to grow its own vehicle fuel, the alcohol was so popular several years ago that Congress passed a Federal Renewable Fuels Standard as part of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act.

The 2007 regulations require 36 billion gallons of ethanol to be included in U.S. vehicle fuel by 2022--a volume more than three times the 11.1 billion gallons used in 2010. For 2015, the requirement is 15 billion gallons.

The new study, US & Brazil Ethanol Outlook to 2022, notes that to meet the required volumes of ethanol, the U.S. would have to import substantial quantities from Brazil--quantities that Hart says will not to be available at the times they will be needed.

Reasons include under-investment in sugarcane production, high global sugar prices (which make it more attractive to use the cane for sugar rather than fuel), and increasing global demand for ethanol.

At the moment, Hart points out, the U.S. actually exports more ethanol than does Brazil. Together, the two countries produce 80 percent of the world's supply of ethanol.

As a fuel, ethanol turns out to have several drawbacks:

The U.S. practice of distilling it from corn yields the lowest productivity per acre of any feedstock

Growing crops to serve ethanol feedstock either displaces food crops or requires more land to be farmed

The overall carbon footprint of corn-based ethanol is dubious at best

Ethanol acts as a solvent and can damage engine parts (especially rubber seals) not designed with it in mind

By volume, ethanol has about 30 percent less energy content than gasoline, so fuel economy falls when ethanol is used--meaning more frequent fill-ups

So-called Flex-Fuel vehicles are produced by most U.S. automakers, but the vast majority of them never see a drop of E85 ethanol, a fuel that is available at less than 3,000 of the nation's 25,000 gas stations.