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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-16 Version:42

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

270

Rep

268

Ind

0

Confidence States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

237

Rep

206

Ind

0

Tos

95

State Pick-ups

Gain

Loss

Hold

Net Gain

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

Dem

0

0

0

-6

-1

-89

23

2

270

-89

Rep

+6

+1

+89

0

0

0

22

2

179

+89

Ind

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
This is a best case scenario(Republican Favored Map).
Obama-D wins DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,CT-7,ME-4,WA-12,and NJ-14 by a double digit margin. (179ev)
Obama-D wins NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,and PA-20 by a high single digit margin. 58ev(237ev)
Obama-D wins NH-4,and NV-6 by a narrow margin(outside the margin of error) 10ev(247ev)
Romney-R is going to win the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,and CO-9. (215ev)
The Tossup States are IA-6,WI-10,VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29.
FL-29 is a state Romney-R must win in order to stand a chance. Obama-D victory in FL-29(276ev),Romney-R victory in FL-29(244ev).
OH-18 is a state Obama-D needs to win to make his victory little easier. Obama-D victory in OH-18(265ev)- Obama just needs to win either IA-6,WI-10,or VA-13. Romney-R victory in OH-18(262ev). Romney-R needs to win either VA-13 or WI-10.
If Obama-D loses OH-18,he needs to carry VA-13 and WI-10. Obama-D is likely to win WI-10 but VA-13 could go either way. Obama-D is at 257ev(Victory in VA-13 or OH-18 will put Obama-D over the 270ev).
If Romney-R loses OH-18, he needs to carry VA-13,WI-10,and IA-6,

Obama-D guide to victory is winning (NH-4,NV-6,IA-6,CO-9,and WI-10)=272ev. If he wins all 5 of those states-he can afford to lose FL-29,OH-18,or VA-13.
If Obama-D loses all 5 of those states then he would need to win FL-29 plus either VA-13 or OH-18.
Obama-D is likely to win NH-4,and NV-6(247ev)
Romney-R is likely to win CO-9 and IA-6(221ev)
WI-10 is too close to call-Obama-D ends up winning the state. (257ev).
Obama-D needs to win either OH-18 or VA-13 to win.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-16 @ 11:04:16

Obama-D and his super PACs will be spending a lot of resources in NV-6,WI-10,VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29 due to the competitive US Senate Races in those states.
In FL and OH, The Democratic Nominees Nelson(FL) and Brown(OH) will outperform Obama-D in their home state. If Obama-D were to lose FL-29 and or OH-18-he'd lose those states by a narrow margin(less than 2.5 percent margin). Nelson(FL) and Brown(OH) will end up winning by a narrow to high single digit margin.
In VA-The Democratic Nominee Kaine-D will match Obama's performance in VA. Obama-D needs to win VA-13 to make sure Kaine-D wins.
In WI-10 and NV-6- The Democratic Nominee Baldwin(D-WI) and Berkley(D-NV) will underperform Obama-D performance in their home state. Obama-D is likely to win WI-10 and NV-6 by a 5 percent margin. Obama-D needs to make sure his margin of victory in WI-10 and NV-6 does not fall below 5 percent.
Winning VA-13,WI-10,and NV-6 gives Obama-D 266ev
Obama-D wins NH-4 to help the Democratic nominee for Governor and US House candidates Shea Porter and Kuster.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-16 @ 12:56:09

Looking at the US Senate. Democrats are favored to win MI(Stabenow-D),HI(Hirono-D),NJ(Menendez-D),and CT(Murphy-D) by a double digit margin. Stabenow(MI) and Murphy(CT) have Republican opponents(Hoekstra-MI and McMahon-CT) that have high negatives. Hirino(HI) is running in a state Obama-D is likely to recieve over 65 percent of the popular vote. The Republican Nominee Lingle(HI) is not going to recieve more than 45 percent of the popular vote and no less than 40 percent of the popular vote. Regarding NJ-Menendez-D wins by a low double digit or high single digit margin. 44D
Democrats are favored to win OH(Brown-D) and NM(Heinrich-D) by a high single digit margin. Brown(OH) and Heinrich(NM) have mediocre Republican opponents (Mandel-OH and Wilson-NM). 46D
Democrats are slightly favored to win FL(Nelson-D),VA(Kaine-D),and MA(Warren-D).
Nelson(FL) and Kaine(VA) will attract a lot of Independent voters that are unhappy with Obama's performance in office but hate the Republican Party as a whole. they like Bob Graham,Mark Warner,Bill Clinton,and Joe Manchin. Warren(MA) will benifit from Obama's coattails and Brown(R-MA) is more conservative than Chaffee(RI who is now an Independent),and the Maine Twins(Snowe and Collins). Had Bill Weld ran and won the 2010 MA US Senate Race -Warren would have a difficult time because Weld appeals to lot of Democratic voters. 49D
Assuming King(ME) caucuses with the Democrats and Obama-D wins re-election. Democrats keep the majority in the US Senate,
Regarding WI. If Obama-D wins and Thompson-R wins. Obama-D and his team should convince Thompson-R to switch parties or become an Independent. The Tea Party in WI in 2018 can unite behind Scott Walker or Paul Ryan or Eric Hovde to unseat Thompson in the primary. Tammy Baldwin-if she loses by a narrow margin- could build up her statewide profile during the next 3 years to run against Ron Johnson in 2016.
If Baldwin wins -and Pocan decides to run against Johnson and defeat him in 2016. WI will have two gay US Senators.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-16 @ 15:57:36

The states Obama-D will win by a margin greater than 20 percent.(DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,NY-29,and DE-3)= 42ev.
The states Obama-D will win by a margin between 15-20 percent.(RI-4,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,and CA-55)=100ev(142ev)
The states Obama-D will win by a margin between 10-15 percent.(CT-7,ME-4,WA-12,NJ-14,and NM-5)= 42ev(184ev)
The states Obama-D will win by a margin between 5-10 percent(OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,PA-20,and NV-6)= 59ev(243ev)
The states Obama-D will win by a margin less than 5 percent(NH-4,WI-10,IA-6,OH-18,and FL-29)= 310ev.
Romney-R is favored to win the McCain States(SC-9,AZ-11,GA-16,and MT-3)-Romney-R wins by a high single digit margin.(MO-10)-Romney-R wins by a narrow margin. 180ev plus IN-11(Romney-R wins by a low double digit margin)NC-15(Romney-R wins by a high single digit margin),VA-13 and CO-9(Romney-R wins by a narrow margin). 228ev.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-16 @ 16:43:40

Obama-D is going to win all of the states in the Northeast and West Coast.
(ME-4,NH-4,VT-3,MA-11,RI-4,CT-7,NY-29,NJ-14,DE-3,PA-20,MD-10,and DC-3)=112ev.
(WA-12,OR-7,CA-55,and HI-4)=78ev(190ev)
In the Industrial Midwestern region (Obama-D is favored to win IL-20,MN-10,and MI-16)=46ev(236ev). Romney-R is favored to win (IN-11 and MO-10). (OH-18,WI-10,and IA-6) are the pure tossup states. In the Soutwest(Obama-D is favored to win NM-5 and NV-6)-11ev(247ev). Romney-R is favored to win (AZ-11 and CO-9). Romney-R is strongly favored to win all of the states in the Greatplains Midwest(ND-3,SD-3,NE-5,KS-6)17ev(58ev),Mountain West(MT-3,ID-4,WY-3,and UT-6)16ev(74ev)and AK-3(77ev). Romney-R also wins the Southern states minus FL-29(OK-7,TX-38,LA-8,AR-6,MS-6,AL-9,TN-11,KY-8,WV-5,VA-13,NC-15,SC-9,and GA-16).151ev(228ev).
The battleground states are FL-29,OH-18,WI-10,and IA-6.
Obama-D guide to victory is either winning FL-29(276ev) or OH-18 plus either WI-10 or IA-6. Romney-R will need to win FL-29. plus OH-18 or WI-10 and IA-6.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-16 @ 17:17:38

FL-29 is a battleground state Romney-R needs to win in order to win the election.
OH-18 is a battleground state Obama-D needs to win in order to win the election.
Obama-D is favored to win NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,and PA-20= 237ev plus NV-6 and NH-4= 247ev.
Romney-R is favored to win the McCain states plus IN-11,NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9.=228ev.
Besides FL-29,and OH-18. The other battleground states are in WI-10 and IA-6. Obama-D is going to win either one of those states. Obama-D will be at 253-263ev.
Winning OH-18 puts Obama-D over the 270ev mark. If Obama-D wins FL-29-the election is over. Romney-R could win NC-15,VA-13,CO-9,OH-18,IA-6,WI-10,and NH-4 or NV-6. and still lose the election. If Romney-R wins FL-29-he is at 257ev(assuming Romney-R wins NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9). If Romney-R wins OH-18-he is the next President of the US. Obama-D could win his traditional battleground states(NM-5,MN-10,OR-7,PA-20,NV-6,MI-16,NH-4,WI-10,and IA-6)and still lose.
Romney-R wins FL-29(257ev). Obama-D wins OH-18(255ev)
That leaves WI-10,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4. Obama-D needs to win WI-10- to make his victory more easy or he will have to win (NH-4,NV-6,and IA-6)to win.
Obama-D wins WI-10(265ev).
That leaves (NH-4,NV-6,and IA-6).
Obama-D will win NV-6(271ev)

Obama-D has a double digit lead in CT,ME,MN,NJ,NM,and WA-12=194ev
Obama-D has a high single digit lead in
MI,NV,OR,and PA=49ev(243ev)
Obama-D has a narrow lead outside the margin of error in NH and WI=14ev(257ev)
Obama-D is in a statistical tie race in CO,FL,IA,OH,and VA. Obama-D wins OH(275ev).

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-17 @ 06:39:21

Looking at the 2012 US Senate Races. Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents Brown(OH) and Nelson(FL) win re-election, while Tester(MT) and McCaskill(MO) end up losing. 44D 43R
On the Republican side-Brown(MA) loses and Heller(NV) survives. 45D 44R
Looking at the open seats. Democrats are favored to win CT,HI,NM,VA,and ME(King-I) Republicans are favored to win AZ,NE,and TX. 50D 47R
The Tossup Races are in IN,ND,and WI.

By:dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-17 @ 13:19:13

In my mind Wisconsin is lean GOP now in the senate, while Indiana is the real barn burner and then a close race in ND...could end up loss in WIsconsin, win in Indiana for Dems and a hold in ND for Dems...which would only be a minus one seat in senate for DEMS and a loss by McConnell of his power role...

By:SupersonicVenue (R-GBR) 2012-08-17 @ 13:41:09

If this is your Republican best case scenario, do you believe Romney has 0% chance of winning?

By:dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-17 @ 15:12:12

For me I do not believe ROmney has lost for sure...I believe the debates will give him a Reagan moment to sell himself to the public. If he does he could squeak out a victory....but most people feel it will be Obama 50.5% Romney 48.8% and rest third party with turnout down for a variety of reasons.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-17 @ 23:42:52

Regarding WI US Senate. IF Baldwin-D were to make a decent showing in her losing campaign-any chance she runs in 2016 against Johnson-R and Pocan-D runs in 2018 against the Republican that unseats Thompson-R in the Primary, WI could have two LGBTA US Senators.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-17 @ 23:58:59

The Lean Obama-D states are NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,and PA-20=237ev
The Slight Lean Obama-D states are NH-4,NV-6,and WI-10=257ev
FL or OH puts Obama-D over the top.