Changes In Ex-soviet Union Affect Israel

January 12, 1992|By ABRAHAM RABINOVICH, Special to the Sun-Sentinel

JERUSALEM -- The irony was inescapable two weeks ago when, 48 hours before the Soviet Union was to disappear, a Soviet ambassador arrived in Jerusalem to resume relations severed by Moscow 24 years ago during Israel`s Six-Day War.

As the Soviet anthem was played by a military band, perhaps for the last time outside the Soviet Union, Israeli officials indulged in brief bittersweet reflections on this belated act of contrition by a dying superpower that had been Israel`s nemesis for decades.

What engrossed the Israelis more were calculations regarding the new strategic equation evoked by the breakup of the Soviet empire, particularly the possible effect on Jewish emigration.

``There is a possibility that 400,000 Soviet Jews may come in 1992,`` said Uri Gordon, head of the immigration department of the Jewish Agency, which organizes the transfer of immigrants to Israel. ``The worsening crisis there is likely to bring massive immigration with it.``

About 320,000 Soviet Jews have arrived in Israel in the past two years. It is predicted that 1 million will arrive during a five-year period.

If this is borne out, they will increase Israel`s Jewish population by 25 percent and change its demographic character by making it more European, more secular and more highly educated.

Anti-Semitism, which is widespread in the Soviet Union, is expected to increase as the newly independent republics define their own identity.

This increasing nationalism will make it difficult for Jews to feel part of the emerging new order, some Israeli experts say.

Immigration tapered off in the past year as letters from new immigrants describing the difficulty of finding work in Israel reached relatives and friends in the Soviet Union.

However, the number of Jews requesting visas from the Israeli Embassy in Moscow doubled last month in what was seen as a reaction to the new political situation and the increasing prospect of economic chaos.

The demise of the Soviet Union has been a boon to Israel by knocking out the principal strategic prop from beneath Israel`s enemies.

For four decades, Moscow supplied the arms and tactics employed by the Arab armies in their periodic wars with Israel. It also provided the Arabs with political backing in the international arena.

The Soviets sent military advisers to Syria and Egypt and crews that operated ground-to-air SAM missiles that took a toll on Israeli planes.

In the Yom Kippur War, Soviet airborne forces were put on high alert and there were hints that Moscow would deploy tactical nuclear weapons if Israel did not stop its advance on Cairo.

On the negative side of Jerusalem`s ledger, the dissolution of the Soviet superpower deprives Israel of its strategic importance to the United States.

This importance had been a prime argument for the lavish financial and political aid supplied by Washington to Jerusalem in recent decades.

While Israel tries to figure out what the bottom line of these calculations is likely to be, Moscow has announced that the ambassador dispatched by the Soviet Union to Israel will stay on as the ambassador of the Russian Republic.