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Turkey, Israel and the United States are all watching closely as a
convoy of humanitarian aid from Turkish non-governmental organization
heads toward the Gaza Strip. Whatever the outcome, Turkey stands to win
and Israel stands to lose, while the United States would like to see the
situation to disappear.

Analysis

Three players in particular are affected by the flotilla belonging to a
Turkish religious non-governmental organization steaming toward the Gaza
Strip: Israel, Turkey, and the United States. There are no good outcomes
to the situation for Israel and no bad outcomes for Turkey. Meanwhile,
the United States would prefer if the whole situation just went away.

Turkey is trying to re-emerge as a great power after an interregnum of
nearly a century. It has yet to find its bearings, however, and has made
miscalculations. The most glaring of these occurred when Russia blocked
Ankara's moves in the Caucasus by preventing a Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement and upsetting Turkey's ties to its longtime ally,
Azerbaijan. This has prompted Turkey to focus on the Middle East, where
there are plenty of opportunities for its efforts to enhance its
international stature. The Gaza convoy provides such an opportunity,
regardless of the outcome.

If Israel permits the convoy to enter Gaza, Turkey will have stuck it to
a country widely loathed in the Arab and Muslim world, in stark contrast
to the relatively impotent Arab gestures against Israel. If Israel does
not allow the convoy to enter Gaza, Turkey will still get points for
trying. Ankara's ties to the group that organized the convoy remain
unclear, meaning Turkey need not respond officially if Israel takes
aggressive action against the ships.

For its part, Israel does not appear to have arrived at an internal
consensus on just how isolated it is in the world, nor does it realize
the extent with which U.S. and Israeli interests have fallen out of
alignment. Preventing the humanitarian convoy from landing will likely
increase that isolation and widen the U.S.-Israeli divide, as
Palestinian civilian suffering is a cause celebre in the Muslim world,
Europe and even in some parts of the United States. Permitting the
convoy to land will only inspire further support for the Palestinians,
undermining Israel's efforts to use its military and economic advantage
to reshape its neighborhood to its liking.

For its part, the United States does not need any further distractions.
Its proverbial plate is full trying to disengage from Iraq and win the
war in Afghanistan, in addition to trying to free up the surplus
capacity to deal with a resurging Russia. Washington accordingly will
not look kindly on a new crisis brought about by Israeli intransigence
on the convoy issue.

One outcome of U.S. engagement in the Middle East and South Asia since
the 9/11 attacks is a divergence in U.S. and Israeli interests. In order
to extricate itself from Iraq and effectively deal with Afghanistan, the
United States must negotiate with Iran - something Israel sees as
undermining its national security. In addition to the variance in the
U.S. and Israeli calculus on Iran, the two allies more recently ran into
disagreements on the Palestinian issue given the Obama administration's
need to placate the Arab/Muslim world as part of its strategy in the war
against jihadism.

The United States does not want to be forced to take sides when it comes
to Turkey and Israel, as both are allies. But if it comes to down it, it
will choose Ankara because the United States is dependent on Turkey in
relation to a host of foreign policy matters, complicating U.S.-Israeli
relations. In fact, Washington would prefer remain out of this matter
altogether, but depending how ugly things get, it may find itself forced
into the fray.

While the current situation may ultimately pass without much fanfare,
the complex regional situation, Turkish objectives and American
priorities mean it could wind up being a major event.

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