Monday, April 13, 2015

One of the talking heads...

...on one of the political shows I watch (I forget which one) asked recently, "Is Hillary Clinton a bad candidate, and does it matter?"

And, for what it's worth, I would answer "yes," and "no."

First of all, of course Hillary is a bad candidate! She's only "likeable enough." And, like Al Gore (and Mitt Romney and John Kerry), she's wooden on the stump (sorry!) and comes across as insincere and inauthentic. (And people hate it when you insult their intelligence.) Don't forget, the "inevitable" candidate last time around lost to a little-known freshman senator -- a black guy with an exotic name, no less!

But will it matter in 2016? I don't think so. (For starters, she won't be running against anyone formidable.) The country is basically split evenly -- fifty/fifty -- between Republicans and Democrats. And so, no matter what, the election will probably end up relatively close. (Unless someone like Barry Goldwater Scott Walker or Ted Cruz or Rand Paul gets the GOP nod.)

So how will the election of 2016 be decided? Well, it won't be between which candidate you would rather have a beer (neither). I'll say it will matter more where the economy is about a year from now, in the late spring of 2016. If things are going along just fine, like now, Barack Obama will win a third term. If not, then Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio will have a shot.