Archive for the ‘Hall of Fame’ category

My 2015 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot. Sorry for the typos and poor grammar- I’m writing this with my downtime at work.

1) Pedro Martinez

2827.1 IP, 10.04 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 2.91 FIP, 87.1 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 11.9, 9.9, 8.6, 7.8, 7.8, 6.4, 5.8

6+ fWAR total: 16.4; fWAR/200IP: 6.16

His average season was MVP quality. 1999 may have been the best pitching season ever. In the AL East. During the highest run scoring era in baseball history. Yeah, this is a no-doubter.

2) Randy Johnson

4135.1 IP, 10.61 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.19 FIP, 111.7 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 10.4, 9.6, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 8, 7.7

6+ fWAR total: 22.2; fWAR/200IP: 5.40

I think his seven best fWAR seasons speak for his dominance. Another no-doubter.

3) Curt Schilling

3261 IP, 8.60 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.23 FIP, 83.2 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 9.3, 8.4, 8.3, 7.4, 7.3, 5.7, 5.4

6+ fWAR total: 10.7; fWAR/200IP: 5.10

If his regular season numbers aren’t impressive enough, then his postseason stats give him bonus points that make him a HOF pitcher.

4) Mike Mussina

3562.2 IP, 7.11 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 3.57 FIP, 82.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 6.9, 6.2, 6.2, 5.8, 5.4, 5.3, 5.3

6+ fWAR total: 1.3; fWAR/200IP: 4.63

His peak seasons weren’t on the same level of RJ or Pedro, but he was consistently an MVP level pitcher with 10 seasons of 5+ fWAR. That’s good enough for me, especially for another SP who had to deal with the AL East during the game’s biggest offensive era.

5) John Smoltz

3473 IP, 7.99 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9, 3.24 FIP, 78.7 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 8.2, 6.7, 5.4, 5.2, 5.2, 5.1, 5.1

6+ fWAR total: 2.9; fWAR/200IP: 4.53

Starting Pitcher fWAR/200IP: 4.41; Relief Pitcher fWAR/200IP: 5.94

Pitched at an All-Star/MVP level as both a starter and reliever. He is close to borderline for me, but was good enough that I feel comfortable voting him in.

Much like Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever, Martinez has been the best DH ever. Now, he didn’t play defense and that hurts him. But he was so good offensively, it doesn’t matter. Retiring with a .300+/.400+/.500+ line, even in the context of his era, is incredible. He is like the Mussina of hitters in this class. Consistently great even if he doesn’t have one “all-time” type of season.

Raines is the SABR darling of this HOF class (along with Alan Trammell). Upon further review, he is closer to the outside looking in than I originally thought. However, a lot of lower fWAR/650PA is due to the fact he probably did stick around too long. But Raines is the best base stealer/runner of all-time. Rickey Henderson stole more bases, but at lower clip (80% compared to Raines’ 85%). Stealing bases at an 85% clip for a whole career, and to steal that many is amazing. Raines is 5th all-time among SB leaders, and has the highest of SB% of the top five. And base stealing is just one aspect of his game- he was also an OBP machine!

Larry Walker is has knock against him and it’s not Coors Field. It’s his injury history. Yes, he played in the best hitters park in the best hitters era. But his numbers were still far and away better than most of his peers. His home/road splits are drastic- but only because while he was amazing the road he was god-like at home. His per season fWAR totals might seem low but again, that’s due to injury-plagued seasons and this is supported by his MVP level career fWAR/650PA of 5.58. Dude is a Hall of Famer.

Now, I think there are more deserving players. However, a ballot only allows for ten votes. Therefore, I withheld all players who definitely used PED’s and were not just suspected of PED’s. Unlike most people, I don’t care about PED’s when it comes to the HOF. However, on a crowded ballot I won’t put them ahead of other deserving players. Therefore, the rest of eligible players I think are Hall worthy are…

Roger Clemens

4916.2 IP, 8.55 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.09 FIP, 139.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 10.8, 9.7, 9.1, 9, 8.5, 8.5, 8.1

6+ fWAR total: 21.7; fWAR/200IP: 5.68

Most evidence points toward his first PED use being in 1997 with Toronto. If you look at his fWAR before that during his Boston tenure, he had 83 fWAR or 5.71 fWAR per season in nearly 3000 total innings. Hall of Famer.

Biggio is tough. He does have 3000 hits. He does have some superb seasons. But the more I think about him the more I think he was simply a good, All-Star caliber player who had a long career that allowed him to get his 3000 hits. A 3.38 fWAR/650PA is not HOF worthy. But if he retired before he wasn’t good anymore, that number would be better. So for now, I will keep him off the ballot until I can make my mind up either way.

Trammell is one of the game’s great fielding shortstops. He is a HOF worthy defender. Offensively, his numbers don’t look great. But in context of the era, he has really good numbers for a SS and was one of the game’s first great two-way players at that position. A 4.42 fWAR/650PA isn’t ideal for the HOF, but if you take away his first couple seasons and last couple seasons to focus truly on his prime playing days, and that number looks a whole lot better. If it wasn’t a crowded ballot I would vote for him, but that’s not the case. And a result, he only has a couple years left on the ballot and I fear the worst for him.

During his peak, Nomar was arguably the best shortstop in baseball- ahead of A-Rod and Jeter. But how much does a peak count. Clearly, he had HOF talent. The only reason he isn’t a legitimate candidate is because he often hurt and it ruined his ability perform well, and put up good full season numbers when he was at his best. I don’t think I’d ever vote for him, but I want his career to recognition.

Again, the average fWAR is low- but he played for a really long time. Plus, Sheffield could hit. Like really hit. He lost 30 wins(!) due to crappy defense and still had 62.4 career fWAR. So that begs the question- should I punish him for being so bad on defense? Or should I recognize him as a phenomenal hitter?

Giles was a consistent offensive force if he never did have that one above and beyond season like a Larry Walker. But he finished with a career OBP of .400 and SLG over .500. That’s really good. His average fWAR season is also borderline for me. The one thing keeping me from voting for him is a short peak. If he had sustained his prime longer and not simply had a bunch of All-Star level seasons instead of MVP seasons, he would have got my vote.

I don’t think Lee Smith is quite a HOF’er. He’s better than I thought, but I wouldn’t put him in. However, if you compare him to other RP in the Hall, he is better. He is better than both Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter and on par with Trevor Hoffman, who most likely will be in the Hall of Fame. However, I don’t think the above should be in the Hall which makes this a tough vote. Put him in because inferior pitchers are in, or vote him out because he should be out.

This is just all my opinion folks (which is generally right) and if there’s one takeaway it’s this: what a class this is!

I am 22 years old. My first vivid baseball memory is from 1998. I have been a die-hard fan ever since. Below are the players from that time period that ARE Hall of Fame players, but 90% of the baseball universe do not recognize as such- BECUZ OF TEH RBI’S AND W/L RECORDS!!

In no particular order…

Chase Utley: 287/.372/.493/.373/128+ 58/5 fWAR (6.2 per 650 PA)

So he has averaged 6 WAR a season for a 12 year career of which he has only played 140+ games four times. Now, being healthy is valuable in itself. But he has been so dominant that he is the rare player who is HOF worthy despite a shorter, injury plagued career. From 2005-2010 he was the second best player in the NL besides Albert Pujols. His WAR is also nearly identical to Jackie Robinson’s- a HOF second baseman.

Carlos Beltran: .281/.356/.494/.363/120 63.3 fWAR (4.5 PER 650 PA)

Carlos Beltran is the best base runner of our generation. He has 310 stolen bases at an 87% clip. That is insane. He was also a really, really good defensive center fielder who could get on-base and hit for power. Plus, if Andre Dawson is in the HOF, Carlos Beltran has to be.

Jim Edmonds: .284/.376/.527/.385/132+ 64.0 fWAR (5.2 per 650 PA)

Yeah, so Jim Edmonds is the white Ken Griffey Jr. No really, he is. Ken Griffey hit .284/.370/.538/.384/131+. Granted, he stuck around a few years longer than he should have so his numbers took a hit, but they are nearly identical. They both played every year from 1993-2010 and both made the jump from the AL to the NL in 2000. Griffey at his best was a better hitter than Edmonds, but Edmonds had the better glove.

Scott Rolen: .281/.364/.490/.368/122+ 69.9 fWAR (5.3 PER 650 PA)

There are only 10 HOF third baseman. Rolen is top 10 in career fWAR at the position. He should be enshrined next. In addition to being a fantastic hitter, he is arguably the best defensive third baseman ever outside Brooks Robinson, along with…

Adrian Beltre: .284/.335/.480/.349/114+ 68.0 fWAR (4.5 per 650 PA)

People look at his Seattle years and think he was a bust there. Those people are wrong. He was average to above average offensively but was a freak defensively. He was an All-Star caliber player during his time there. But he’s been an MVP level player since being freed from Safeco. Along with Rolen he is an all-time fielder at the position. And his 2004 still happened.

He has a nearly identical career to Curt Schilling. Curt Schilling is a HOF’er. People think Schilling is a HOF’er. A lot of people do not think Mussina is. They think this because he missed out on so much- Cy Young’s, a perfect game, a World Series title, etc, etc. He was also overshadowed by other HOF’ers- Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens. Yet Mussina was a control freak who consistently dominant for over a decade.

Most people remember Kevin Brown for his “failed” stint as a New York Yankee. But that was at the end of his career. At his best he pitched at an elite, MVP level for five seasons from 1996-2000. That’s in addition to pitching at an All-Star level the four years prior to that. I’ll vote in a guy who pitched at that level for ten seasons.

From 1997-2000 he was better than both Derek Jeter and A-Rod. Yes, injuries cut his career short. But he was the premiere shortstop of the AL’s three-headed monster in the late 90’s. On a career longevity he should not be in. But to put up the career numbers he did in such a short amount of time is so amazing that I can live with such a short peak/career. I recognize that Nomar is my most controversial pick and he should be penalized for having such a short career. But when he was healthy…oh boy.

And guys who many think are Hall of Famers but aren’t quite:

Larry Walker- I used to think he was.

Todd Helton- I really used to think he was.

Jeff Kent

Vladimir Guerrero- I could either way. But his defense was atrocious to the point it hurt his offensive value enough to drop him below the HOF range.

Gary Sheffield

This is just a list of guys off my head. I’m sure there are more I can think of but it’s late.

The voting results for the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot will be released next week. It might be the most stacked ballot ever (until 2015). So over the next couple days I will try to highlight a couple players on the ballot.

Maddux and Thomas are HOF’ers to the SABR crowd and non-SABR crowd. Bagwell is a no-doubter unless you think he was a PED-user. Martinez is a no-doubter if you get off the “he was a DH!” high horse. Dude finished with a .300/.400/.500 line. Offensive era and ballpark? He still had a 60+ fWAR career with the DH positional hit affecting his WAR.

With that, let’s take a quick look at Mike Mussina and his statistical twin, Curt Schilling.

Let’s work backwards on this one. He has a career 82.5 WAR. That puts him at 19th, ALL-TIME. If you go by bWAR Mussina is still the in the top 20. In case you’re wondering, there are most than 20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Now let’s see why his WAR is so high.

He was a control master. His highest BB/9 was 2.55 in 1996. Retiring with a sub 2.0 BB/9 is absurd. For comparison, Greg Maddux, who many consider to be one of the best strike throwing pitchers of all-time, had a BB/9 of 1.80. So Mussina kept runners off base which helped keep runs off the board.

His one flaw was the long ball. However, consider the context- in pitched in Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium during an era of high home runs that. Although high, his HR/9 is still under 1.0 at 0.85.

The average HOF pitcher throws 3788 career innings. Mussina is about 200 innings or a season short of that. On average Mussina pitched 198 innings a season- a figure which jumps to 204 if you remove his rookie season where he made just 12 starts. So Mussina was a consistent pitcher who could be relied on for 200+ innings a season.

Overall, Mussina is a great HOF candidate who would actually be one of the better pitchers to be inducted into Cooperstown.

Mussina threw exactly 301 more career innings. They are within 1 WAR of each other, 0.05 WHIP, 0.001 HR/9, and 0.00 BB/9. Wow. Both were strike throwers who walked very few and gave up the long ball with some frequency, but not enough to dampen their effectiveness. Removing seasons where he pitched out of the bullpen, Schilling was good an average of 202 innings per year. He hit his peak in the late 1990s and early 2000s when he would throw 250-270 innings a season.

Where Schilling and Mussina differ is the strikeout and and “dominance”. Schilling strike out just about a batter an inning. Strikeouts are the best way to prevent runs and Schilling was fantastic at that. Moreover, from 1998-2004 Schilling had five MVP-caliber WAR seasons (above 6.0) including two in the 7’s, two in the 8’s, and one at 9.3 in 2002. On the other hand, Mussina had “just” three MVP WAR seasons and all were in the 6’s. Instead though, he consistently sat around 5-6 WAR year after year, whereas Schilling would peak and valley between 7 WAR seasons and 3 WAR seasons.

Either way, both pitchers had phenomenal careers. If Mussina is HOF worthy then Schilling should definitely be worthy. When it comes to the three true outcomes, both are identical with BB and HR, but Schilling did a better job striking batters out, which is better at preventing base runners and runs then letting a ball be hit into play.

With newcomers such as Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina, in addition to returning players such Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez, the 2014 HOF ballot is ridiculous. I don’t know how less than ten people could get elected this time around.

Returning players who should be in:

Larry Walker

Alan Trammell

Curt Schilling

Tim Raines

Mike Piazza

Edgar Martinez

Roger Clemens

Barry Bonds

Craig Biggio

Jeff Bagwell

That’s ten people right there! Too bad writers can only vote for up to ten people. Here are the newcomers who are sure fire HOF’ers as well:

Frank Thomas

Mike Mussina

Greg Maddux

And two more potentials on my standards: Tom Glavine and Jeff Kent.

If most of these players don’t make it then imagine the backlog come 2015 with the addition of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Gary Sheffield, and Nomar Garciaparra.

Looking at his basic line, one might assume so. He hit .280/.383/.546/.390/135+. That’s pretty damn good. HOWEVER…he wasn’t a good fielder. He racked a negative 60.8 fielding runs according to fangraphs. Yikes! Moreover, he was a first baseman in baseballs biggest power era. So yeah, without context his line looks extraordinary, and it still is a good line, but relative to his era, it’s not Hall of Fame.

WAR also disagrees with Delgado’s HOF candidacy. According to fWAR, his career total was 49.1- and it’s even lower according to B-R. His WAR/700 is 3.97. That’s not cutting it. He only had 1 MVP level season (6+ WAR) and his WAE was “just” 14.3. He was an excellent player for a good bit, but he wasn’t special.

So while he enjoyed a good career, it was not quite on a Hall of Fame level. Sorry Carlos.

Well, tomorrow Andy Pettitte will officially retire. For the 2011 Yankees, this sucks. While I don’t believe Andy would have pitched as well as he did in 2010, he is a considerably better option than Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre, etc, etc for a spot in the rotation. So even at $12mil, Andy is worth that to this specific Yankee team. I can only imagine he would be a 1.5-2 win upgrade compared to our current next best option, so he honestly could be the make or break player/reason the Yankees miss out on the playoffs.

But Andy is not coming back, and as a fan, I cannot complain. He’s been a wonderful talent to watch, and a true competitor. I don’t want to sound all MSMish, but his toughness and appetite to win was fun to watch. For many seasons he was the Yankees star pitcher, and while the Yankees aren’t typically known for their pitching, that’s still an impressive label to carry considering how strong a team the Yankees have been while he’s played for them.

Andy Pettitte has had a good career, but is it a Hall of Fame career?

To begin, Pettitte was a true workhorse. He made 30+ starts in thirteen of his sixteen seasons. Moreover, he did everything well that a pitcher could control. He had a 6.63 K rate, 2.83 BB rate, 0.77 HR rate, and has been successful at inducing lots of ground balls, which usually turn into lots of outs. By limiting walks, keeping the ball in the park, and inducing grounders, Pettitte was able to go deep into ballgames and prevent runs, two significant things a pitcher can do to help his team win, and provide value to them. As a result, Andy had a 3.75 FIP and 66.9 fWAR. In fact, his fWAR/200 is 4.4. That’s not just good. That’s Hall of Fame good.

HOWEVER, bWAR disagrees. His bWAR is 50.2, or 3.3/200 IP. That’s a whole win lower than his fWAR/200. Moreover, his WAR goes from above the HOF standard, to well below it. Yikes. So as a rule of thumb, you average the two. His aWAR would be 58.9 and his aWAR/200 would be 3.8.

So Andy is legitimately borderline right now. His aWAR of 58.9, would just about put him on the Hall of Fame line. Of all players that come to mind, I don’t think a single player is more borderline than Andy Pettitte. If there was an actual line or standard to get into the Hall of Fame, it would be the Andy Pettitte line. I mean, his numbers and rate stats are good, but not OUTSTANDING. Yet he made a lot of starts and threw a lot of innings in the seasons he played, gaining a lot of value. He had 1 WAM season, and another TWELVE WAE seasons (and in two of the three seasons he didn’t 3+ WAR he missed half the season and otherwise would have got 3+ WAR). So Andy Pettitte was pretty much an excellent player for his ENTIRE career with a couple near MVP seasons along the way.

Looking at it right now, I can’t make up my mind on Andy. As I said, he is as borderline as it gets. If he got voted in, I’d agree. If he missed out, I wouldn’t complain. HOWEVER, if you had to lean in a certain way, the way to lean is PRO-HOF- for a couple reasons.

For one, we haven’t even looked at his postseason numbers. While he didn’t pitch as well in the postseason (4.17 FIP, 263 innings), he still accumulated a significant chunk of innings in the postseason. Although we don’t have a database of postseason WAR, if those numbers actually counted, I think it would have made Andy’s numbers look better, especially in terms of WAR.

Second, just go to Tom Tango. In 2009 he wrote:

QUOTE:

As I’ve talked about in the past, the best way to get a sense of someone’s place in history is to compare the player to his peers. And typically, you get about 20-25 players elected to the Hall of Fame for every decade of birth years (with about one-third of those pitchers).

AND today… :

Andy Pettitte was born in June of 1972. If we look at every pitcher born within 4.5 years of him (the nine years from 1968 to 1976), we get this list:

We see that Pettitte is somewhere on the cusp of good to great. I look forward to seeing Pettitte’s name on the Hall of Fame ballot for 15 years. He deserves that much at least.

So if for a given generation 20-25 players make the HOF and 6-8 or so are pitchers, than it looks like Andy Pettitte is easily a HOF’er. That may speak more to the fact that the current generation is weaker than other generations (especially the one preceding it) but either way, it strengthens Andy’s case.

So yeah, Andy Pettitte the take it or leave it HOF candidate.

AND just for fun, lets compare him to fellow soft tossing lefty Tom Glavine, who is just about a lock for the HOF.

And he retires the all-time saves leader (stoopid stat) with 601 career saves.

While I don’t like reliever all that well, it is a role and position of the game that isn’t going away anytime soon. Although Hoffman may be quite overrated, he still had a fantastic career. Will he be a Hall of Famer? No doubt about it. Should he be a Hall of Famer? Let’s take a look.

For obvious reasons, closers compile low WAR numbers. For that reason, most people are probably against their inclusion into the HOF. I disagree. It IS a position and their scale for getting into the HOF should be different than starting pitchers. While a HOF pitcher will generally have a 60+ WAR, I like to look at a reliever’s WAR/200. By scaling their WAR to 200 innings, you can put them on the “same level” as starters. Hoffman’s 22.9 fWAR is clearly not HOF worthy if you treat it the same as you would a starting pitcher. But you shouldn’t do that. His WAR/200 is 4.2. That’s pretty good. Tom Glavine’s WAR/200 is 3.1. John Smoltz is 4.8.

Granted, starting pitcher’s ARE more valuable than reliever’s and typically more talented. But when you put up the numbers of a Trevor Hoffman, it’s clear you have HOF skill and talent. The only reason you’re not seeing success as a starter is because 1) You lack the stamina 2) You lack multiple pitches 3) You dominant in the pen and your team refuses to move you from the position. Those factors should not be held against a dominant reliever.

So yes, Trevor Hoffman should be in the HOF. His numbers are better than current RP in the HOF, including Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage. Hoffman is retiring with more than a K per inning and a 3.08 FIP. For starters and position players, anything above 3 WAR is considered Wins Above Excellent and anything above 6 WAR is considered Wins Above MVP. For a RP I would estimate WAE would be either 1.5 or 2 and WAM would be 2 or 2.5. I could do further analysis on that, but estimating right now, that would give Hoffman three seasons of WAE and a whopping six seasons of WAM.

From 1996-2000 he had a dominant run, posting five consecutive WAM seasons, posting FIP’s between 2.04 and 2.70, accumunlating 12.5 fWAR (or 6.6 WAR/200!) and a K/9 of 11.0. Impressive.

So Trevor Hoffman is a HOF pitcher. I also want to take the time to talk about Lee Smith.

He has been on the ballot for a long while. He is better than Trevor Hoffman. So if Hoffman gets in, which I assume he will, then it is a shame Smith will probably not be. He threw about 200 more career innings, yet his fWAR/200 is 4.5. Remember, Hoffman’s is 4.2. Smith also finished with a better career FIP, which is 2.93. Smith had EIGHT seasons of WAM and another two seasons of WAE.