D.C. Current

Why Bush May Lose

Some key economic indicators favor Kerry

PRESIDENT BUSH DID QUITE WELL FOR HIMSELF in the third and final debate. He seemed like the confident president who is evident in private, not the awkward, twisty-tongued galoot who often appears on TV. But even if Bush won the debate, it may not do him any good: Some reliable economic predictors of election outcomes are saying that Bush will lose a close race on Nov. 2.

The real disposable income of individuals, historically a leading indicator of electoral success, is growing well below the level that usually ensures an...