WBGU: 75% chance of avoiding 2C means no more than 600 Gt CO2 emitted between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050

The 2009 Report of the German Advisory Council on Climate Change
(WBGU, Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale
Umweltveränderungen) was entitled “Solving the climate dilemma: the
budget approach” and crucially stated: “The budget of CO2 emissions
still available worldwide could be derived from the 2 degree C guard
rail. By the middle of the 21st century a maximum of approximately 750
Gt CO2 (billion metric tons) may be released into the Earth’s atmosphere
if the guard rail is to be adhered to with a probability of 67%. If we
raise the probability to 75%, the cumulative emissions within this
period would even have to remain below 600 Gt CO2. In any case, only a
small amount of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050. Thus, the era
of an economy driven by fossil fuels will definitely have to come to an
end within the first half of this century” (see WBGU, “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach”).

The consequences of this declaration of less than 600 Gt CO2 in
emissions for a 75% chance of avoiding 2 degree C temperature rise are
profound. Thus, would you board a plane if it had a 25% chance of
crashing? Further, the average world population in the period 2010 and
2050 will be 8.321 billion (see UN Population Division, 2010 Revision).
Accordingly the per capita share of this terminal CO2 pollution budget
is less than 600 billion tonnes CO2/8.321 people = less than 72.1 tonnes
CO2 per person.

Using data for the annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) (including
land use change) for every country in the world in 2000 (see “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”,
Wikipedia) one can determine how many years left at current rates of
GHG pollution (in units of CO2-e or CO2-equivalent i.e. taking other
GHGs into account) before a given country uses up its “share”. Thus for
Australia 72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person / 25.9 tonnes CO2- per person
per year in 2000 = 2.8 years left, based on the 2000 data. Note that
this analysis does not take into account historical pollution of the
atmosphere.

In 2009 Australia’s population was 22.0 million, Australia ‘s GHG
pollution was 600 Mt CO2-e (CO2 equivalent i.e. taking into account
other greenhouse gases such as methane, CH4, and nitrous oxide, N2O).
600 Mt per year/ 22.0 million people = 27.3 t CO2-e per person per year
and at that rate of GHG pollution Australia would use up its 2010-2050
“share” in 72.1 t CO2-e per person/ 27.3 t CO2-e per person per year =
2.6 years.

However in 2009 Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (in
Mt CO2-e) was 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) =
1,415 Mt CO2-e, this giving Australia an annual per capita Domestic
plus Exported GHG pollution in 2009 of 1,415 Mt CO2-e per year/ 22.0
million people = 64.3 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, this being
64.3/0.9 = 71.4 times greater than the annual per capita of Bangladesh
(0.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year). Based on its 2009 Domestic plus
Exported GHG pollution rate, Australia will take 72.1 Mt CO2-e per
person/ 64.3 t CO2-e per person per year = 1.1 years in the period
2010-2050 to use up its “fair share” of the terminal 600 Gt CO2-e carbon
pollution budget i.e. Australia has ALREADY used up its “share” of the
terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution budget.

Of course there is no way that Australia will meet its “all men are
created equal” global obligations and cease polluting after having
already in July 2011 achieved its “fair share” of the terminal 600 Gt
CO2 global GHG pollution “budget”. Australia is fundamentally committed
to coal and gas use and exports. Thus about 92% of Australia ‘s
electricity derives from fossil fuel combustion, Australia is the
world’s biggest coal exporter and Australia is a major liquid natural
gas (LNG) exporter. The only major change adumbrated by the Gillard
Labor Government is a coal to gas transition for electric power
generation, this ignoring the reality that this will mean a doubling of
greenhouse gas generation from the electricity sector because methane
(CH4) is 85% of natural gas, leaks at about 3.3% and is 105 times worse
than CO2 as a greenhouse gas on a 20 year timeframe and taking aerosol
impacts into account.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE)
has projected that Australia’s black coal exports will increase at an
average rate of 2.6% per year over the next 20 years and that liquid
natural gas (LNG) exports will increase at 9% per year over the same
period (see “Invest in Australia”).
Further, it is estimated that Australian exports of dried brown coal
will reach 20 Mt by 2020, this corresponding to about 59 Mt CO2-e after
combustion.

Thus Australian policy flies in the face of science and “all men are
created equal” which show that Australia has ALREADY used up it share of
the 2010-2050 terminal GHG pollution budget. Instead Australia
officially projects to INCREASE its annual pollution by 2020 by about
27% over that in 2009. How does Australia ‘s refusal to DECREASE its
disproportionate GHG pollution compare with the conduct of other
countries? Set out below is the time (at 2000 pollution rates) for every
country in the World to use up its “fair share” of the World’s 600 Gt
CO2 terminal GHG pollution budget.

Years to the required “fair shares” total cessation of GHG pollution
at current rates of pollution = 72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person/ (tonnes
CO2-e per person per year). The annual per capita GHG pollution for each
country in 2000 with the land use contribution included (tonnes CO2-e
per person per year) was used (the available data for Uruguay was the
2005 per capita data without the land use contribution included). It
should be noted that fossil fuel use, livestock production and
deforestation variously contribute to annual per capita GHG pollution.
Of course if you can access more up-to-date data (e.g. the example of
Australia) and then you can use it to determine an updated time for zero
emissions. Note that this analysis does not take into account
historical industrial pollution of the atmosphere (73% due to European
countries) (see 2008 Letter of Dr James Hansen, NASA GISS, to PM Kevin Rudd of Australia).

I must reiterate that there is no way that Australia will meet its
global “fair shares” obligations because it is fundamentally committed
to oil use and to coal and gas use and exports. Thus about 92% of
Australia’s electricity derives from fossil fuel combustion, Australia
is the world’s biggest coal exporter and a major liquid natural gas
(LNG) exporter. Both the major parties, the Liberal –National Party
Coalition Opposition (the Libs) and the Labor Government (the Labs)
(collectively known as the Lib-Labs) are committed to a derisory policy
of 5% off 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2020 but with greed-driven
growth of coal and LNG Exports (at 2.6% pa and 9% pa, respectively).
Australia is committed to a greedy and inhumane course of climate
exceptionalism, climate racism and climate injustice. Having ALREADY
used up its share of the terminal 600 Gt CO2-e budget, climate criminal
Australia is now greedily and disproportionately using up the quotas of
other countries (climate racism), with serious global implications as
set out below. .

Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin
Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about
0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed,
man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to
reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a Climate
Genocide involving deaths of about 10 billion people this century,
mostly non-Europeans, this including about 6 billion under-5 year old
infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion
Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3
billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Already 18 million
people die avoidably every year in Developing countries (minus China)
due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease and man-made
global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable
mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global
warming this century will yield an average global annual avoidable death
rate of 100 million per year (see “Climate Genocide”).

Where does your country come in this “years left until zero
emissions” analysis? The World is badly running out of time. The World
will have to take action against the more notorious climate criminal and
climate racist countries such as Australia through Sanctions,
Boycotts, Sporting Boycotts (as were successfully applied to Apartheid
South Africa through exclusion from the Olympic Games and other events),
Green Tariffs, International Court of Justice litigations and
International Criminal Court prosecutions.