Smoke Consequences of New Wildfire Regimes Driven by Climate Change

Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere.

FERA scientist Don McKenzie was commissioned by the Joint Fire Science Program to develop a conceptual framework for dynamic modeling of smoke from wildfires that could be applied under climate-change scenarios.(figure 1). Working with colleagues from U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain and Northern research stations; the University of North Carolina; and the University of Washington, McKenzie produced a set of guidelines for integrated modeling (McKenzie et al. 2014, table 1), along with the following modeling criteria and future research needs (McKenzie et al. 2014).

Key Points

Smoke from future wildfires will be an increasing hazard and feedback to climate.

Integrated models are needed to predict future smoke

Models must incorporate complex feedbacks across scales while being tractable

Figure 1 from McKenzie et al. 2014: Master flowchart for a modeling system to predict smoke consequences of changing fire regimes in a warming climate. Items in boxes are the elements of the modeling system. Italicized terms are processes that should be represented explicitly by model(s). LSFs = land-surface feedbacks. GHGs = greenhouse gases. Note that explicit methodology for representing elements and processes is not specified. Some feedbacks associated with coupled modeling are not included (see text). Components inside the highlighted area need to be accounted for but are not modeled explicitly within the system. For our purposes, radiative forcing at the global scale is fixed (e.g., RCPs = representative concentration pathways), but radiative feedback from aerosols, clouds, and GHGs is dynamic at the scale of regional climate.