After Manafort conviction & Cohen plea, Donald Trump is so desperate he could do anything

Tuesday was a bad day in court for former associates of President Donald Trump, and it could foreshadow tough days ahead for the president. AP's Washington Bureau Chief Julie Pace looks at what it all means for Trump's White House. (Aug. 21)
AP

Michael Cohen knows about all the skeletons in Trump's closet. Manafort could begin to cooperate with Mueller. For Trump, this is crunch time.

One of the few things that all Americans can agree on regardless of their political leanings is that the non-stop barrage of scandal and controversy is getting exhausting. Once upon a time, August was the silly season when everyone, including politicians and reporters, took a well-deserved break and the news was dominated by stories about weekend traffic and water-skiing squirrels.

Alas, no longer. On Tuesday, in the course of less than an hour, two bombshells dropped. In more innocent days, either one would have rocked the country for months. First, after a 12-day trial, a jury found President Donald Trump’s ex-campaign manager, Paul Manafort, guilty on eight felony counts involving bank fraud and tax evasion. The judge declared a mistrial on 10 other counts that could, if the prosecution chooses, be retried later. Second, Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, pleaded guilty to eight felony counts involving one count of bank fraud, five counts of tax evasion and, crucially, two felony campaign-finance violations. These last two are critical because they directly implicate the president in a felony conspiracy. Even by current standards, this is not normal.

Trump could pardon Manafort

As shocking as it is, the Manafort case does not — at least not yet — implicate Trump in any illegal activity. But Manafort faces another trial next month and Robert Mueller, the special prosecutor tasked with investigating matters related to Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, would very much like Manafort’s assistance. So far, Manafort has refused to cooperate. But not, we can be sure, out of loyalty to Trump.

Now that Manafort is facing the possibility of spending the rest of his life in prison, there are two possibilities. He either fully cooperates in the hope of limiting his eventual sentence, or Trump pardons him. I have no idea what, if any, information Manafort might have that would interest Mueller. But Trump knows, and if there is any such information, Trump may well decide to pardon him and accept the political consequences.

Cohen, who was being prosecuted by the U.S. attorney’s office rather than Mueller’s office is, if possible, an even worse nightmare for the president.

First, while Cohen appears to have entered his guilty plea without any formal cooperation agreement with the prosecution, it seems clear he is pretty cooperative already. The two campaign-finance felonies he admitted involved paying off Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal which, according to Cohen’s guilty plea in open court, he did “in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office.”

In other words, he made illegal payoffs to these women on Trump’s orders.

This is bad enough. These charges aren’t going to disappear. While it is extremely unlikely Trump will be indicted while he is in office — Department of Justice guidelines forbid indicting a sitting president — it is hard to imagine that the next ambitious U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York would not prosecute these charges. Rudy Giuliani made his name as a U.S. attorney prosecuting mobsters and insider traders. Imagine prosecuting a president of the United States.

It gets worse. If anyone knows where the bodies are buried, it’s Cohen. He was, after all, Trump’s grave digger in chief for many years. Whatever else might be out there, it’s all going to be in the hands of the U.S. attorney. Unlike Manafort, Cohen was prosecuted by the regular U.S. attorney’s office, which has a mandate to investigate any federal crimes they discover, whether it has anything to do with Russia or not.

Trump could undermine the rule of law

What does all this mean? It means that if Trump has anything to panic about, he’s panicking now. He’s likely to do something desperate and damaging: fire Mueller; pardon Manafort; pardon himself. The only thing that has restrained him is his fear of political retribution. But now that the fear of political retribution is being replaced by the certainty of legal retribution, there is no telling what he will do.

The next several weeks are critical. If Trump is going to take steps to interfere with Mueller’s investigation or subvert the justice system through use of the pardon power, it will likely be soon.

I don’t know what, if anything, Trump is guilty of. But I do know that no one, including Trump, is worth sacrificing the rule of law. In a way, this is all kind of thrilling. The rule of law is the cornerstone of our constitutional system of government, one of those things we learned about in seventh grade civics class and that people like Washington, Jefferson and Madison fought for. Regardless of whether, in our opinion, Trump is being treated “fairly” or not, it is something that each one of us needs to stand up for and defend.

Because the rule of law is not a Republican or a Democrat thing. It’s not a liberal or a conservative thing. It’s an American thing.