Harper was the overwhelming choice to hold down the No. 1 ranking for the second straight year, but rest of the Top 10 includes a host of new names, including four players selected in this summer's draft: Anthony Rendon, Brian Goodwin, Alex Meyer and Matt Purke.

Rendon earned the No. 2 spot behind Harper based entirely on his potential; the former Rice University third baseman has not yet played in a professional ballgame, having only worked out at the Nationals' complex in Viera, Fla., this fall after signing at the Aug. 15 deadline.

A pair of hard-throwing right-handers rank third and fourth: Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole. Peacock, a 41st-round pick in the 2006 draft, burst onto the scene this season by going a combined 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 177 strikeouts between Class AA Harrisburg and Class AAA Syracuse. He then impressed during a September debut in theRead more »

Lets hope when we look at this list three years from now we aren't laughing at the guys on it like we have in the past. There is some real talent on this list, lets hope it stays injury free and they develop as expected.

Mark with respect to your earlier article, I just went to the store and got some more sodium chloride. I'll forever remember that our favorite C, Wilson Ramos, was ranked as the 99th best prospect in baseball last year.Great to be a Nats' fan!!!!

One guy who I know the organization is very high on is Michael Taylor. Yet, he is never in the top 10 lists in any of this rankings. With the way the Org hypes him, he should be a top 5 prospect. Also, you guys should not sleep on Rick Hague. I strongly felt he would have made his cases this year as a top 10 prospect had it not been for the injury. Also Wirkin Estevez is a name to watch out for.

Michael Taylor is a great athlete who is finally coming around to the game of baseball. He is fine tuning his skills and coule turn out to be a very solid player. If you go to the Baseball America article he is indeed getting some love there as the best athlete in the system as well as the best defensive outfielder. That is quite an endorsement with the best athlete tag.I'm slightly shocked that Destin Hood didn't rank in at 10 instead of Lombardozzi. No offense to Lombo but Hood continues to improve and had a very solid season and I would say overall has the higher upside of the two.-PDowdy83

yeah, being as raw as he was coming out of High school, Destin Hood has shown really great progress and should be in the 8-10 spot. I firmly believe that he is doing well enough to get promoted to each higher level, but if he ever repeated a level, he would aboslutely kill it, and then there will be no doubt that he is one of our top prospects.

"No offense to Lombo but Hood continues to improve and had a very solid season and I would say overall has the higher upside of the two."Marc Hulet at Fangraphs agrees. He wrote that "With a little more fine tuning, Hood could zoom up this list in 2012 and is a player that prospect watchers (and fantasy players) will want to keep an eye on. All signs point to a huge breakout in double-A in 2012. Consider yourselves warned."

Nats fans, There is great hope. It appears that the Phills are about to sign Madson to a 4 year $44 mil contract. Madson had a career best 1.7 WAR last year which means he will be paid about $6 mil for every win he is responsible for. It looks like the only thing Amarro is good at is throwing money around. When the current crop of Phillies decline (and this will happen fast) the Phills are going straight to the basement.

jd, someone commented on Madson early this morning in the other post. Amaro was going to have to bring in a closer anyway so he rewarded his own guy by overpaying him (by a lot)! Once the Phillies start losing, that team will implode with all the high payroll long-term deals. With their TV audience and sell-outs every game they have a huge margin of error on payroll—so long as the viewers keep viewing they keep selling out every game.

To consider Hood ahead of Lombardozzi is ridiculous. Both youngsters played their first pro ball at Gulf Coast Nats in 2008. Hood has made steady progress since 2008 but was still at high A Potomac at the end of 2011. Lombardozzi has rocketed through the Nats' system and spent September with the big boys. Hood has at least two more years of minor league ball and will start 2012 at AA Harrisburg. Lombardozzi in 2012 will either 1) be the Nats' infield utilityman; 2) be traded for someone of what Rizzo thinks has equal value or more; 3) be installed at second upon the trade of Desmond; or 4) be sent to Syracuse so that he can play every day rather than be used in the utility role.

jd, Papelbon must be worth $14 million then.Madson's not a done deal. It hit a snag and is in limbo as Phillies ownership had a jam in the calculator. As Nats fans, we should hope the Phillies do that deal at $11 million a year.If the handshake with Boras on Madson is reneged on, there will be heck to pay. Grab some popcorn and watch this one unfold.

I think that lists like these are useful because they come from a non team source and give you a little bit of a sanity check to see whether you are falling in love with a certain guy too much. But they don't mean anything: a kid will turn into the ballplayer that his talent and work ethic create for him, not what an analyst says he will be.One rule of thumb for me on these things: if you have a lot of recent draftees on the list, it is probably a negative comment on the state of your farm system. That may not be the case this time, since our draftees may truly be exceptional, but I think that rule is right more than it is wrong.Sean at DC is for Baseball also ran a voting poll on prospects a while ago (I assume some of you voted): a few differences from BA, higher on Purke and Norris than BA, lower on Goodwin, and had Hood and Ray over Solis and Lombo. I think all of that is within the realm of reasonableness, though. It feels like a good system.I agree that it is tricky to balance the upside of a prospect against the likelihood that he gets there. My way to balance it is usually, which guy would I rather have if I could only have 1? BA does seem to sell out on the side of upside. Lombo v. Hood is a great example of this. Most people would say that Lombo is more likely to pan out than Hood. But pan out into what? If you think that his ceiling is a utility player, and he is 90% likely to hit that ceiling, you wouldn't necessarily want him more than Hood, if you felt like Hood had a 40% chance to be an above average LF. Meaning, you might reasonably conclude that you can get utility guys fairly cheaply on the market when you need them, so take a chance on a guy that would be harder to replace. If you think he is a starting 2b, your conclusion is the opposite. My take is utility guy, so I would rank Hood over him.

@ DFL It is not just about progress through the minor league or close to a ML ready player. It is about potential upside. I would even suggest it is more about upside. Also, given how raw and unexperienced Hood was coming out of high school, it is amazing the success he is having. Most prospects like him would have had to do a second year at either single A or High A before showing any success.

Steve M. What worries me from a Nats point of view is what does that do to Clip and Storen when they hit arbitration? does that mean we can't keep both? I understand that the Lerners can afford to pay but that's not the issue. The issue is how much of your payroll budget do you allocate to the pen?

jd, it certainly skews the bar up in terms or upper end of salary for Storen as a closer. Not sure the effect on a setup guy. I am a proponent of the value of a great bullpen. As I was saying a year ago, I thought Detwiler should have continued as a set-up man in the bullpen. As pointed out yesterday, the Nats led the Majors just ahead of the Cardinals in blown saves and most of those occured between the 6th and 8th innings. While overall ERA was fine, too many blown leads. Unfortunately most of those were small leads to begin with as a product of a low producing team offense.Clubhouse Confidential today reveals the best reliever based on alternative stats. After this post-season, the value of relievers went up. This seems to be a new focus for teams especially from what the Atlanta Braves did for almost the full season last year with their O'Flaherty to Venters to Kimbrel formula for bullpen success.

Wally, here are my notes on Purke and others from earlier today:Steve M. said… I am still thinking Purke and AJ Cole could be better than Peacock although neither are close to being MLB ready. I'm not a Alex Meyer fan right now until he becomes a pitcher and not a thrower which could land him in the bullpen. Solis really helped his cause with his performance in the AFL. That circle change/breaker from a lefty is a killer pitch. If he doesn't abandon his knuckle-curve, he will have an amazing arsenal of pitches.Agree with Drew8's assessment as this is great news to see all the names that didn't crack the Top 10. As expected, Derek Norris fell way down the list but managed to stay in the Top 10 and Tommy Milone didn't make the list. November 9, 2011 10:33 AM

SteveM – I might go even further: if they were in two different organizations, I wouldn't trade Cole for Peacock straight up. I like Peacock, but am very high on Cole. If I had to choose which pitching prospects to keep right now, I would go Cole, Peacock, Purke. I am optimistic (or at least hopeful) on Purke recovering his health, but I don't think that he has shown enough yet that I would take him over Peacock right now, but I can see where he could be higher if healthy.I like Meyer more than you. I expect him to have a longer development time than we might like from a college guy, but I think that he does figure it out and will be a very productive starter.

Let me maintain that even if Lombardozzi is the 2012 utilityman with a starting role stopped by Espoinosa and Desmond, he will not be a lifer at a utilityman. His OBP has been a steady .354 to .373 at every level in the minors. There are probably a half-dozen teams in the majors who would like to slate him at lead-off and second-base. Just off the top of my head, I'd say Lombardozzi could start for the White Sox, Royals, Twins, Indians and Orioles(barring a return of Brian Roberts). If the versatile Ben Zobrist is willing to move position once again in his career, Lombardozzi would fit in with the Rays. Who knows, perhaps the Nats could offer Lombardozzi and Detwiler for Upton.

What is most striking about the BA article is the projected 2015 lineup, with which I am in near total agreement — except for Goodwin in CF, as I haven't heard anyone say he's anything other than a corner outfielder. So put Taylor in that slot, and there you are — what Nats fan can have, without wasting any money or prospects on over-the-hill, injury-plagued or head-case FAs. Every single one of the position players, and half of the pitchers, could be All-Star candidates in 2015 if allowed to mature and grow into their roles in 2013 and 2014. People need to stop thinking spending a lot of money is going to make it all happen next year. It isn't. Settle for a couple of healthy, reasonably-priced veterans and don't screw up the roster.

Wally, I like leftys so I go Purke, Cole then Peacock just on potential and lucky enough to have met Cole and Peacock and seen them both pitch. I have only seen Purke on tape and he looks very good.I could certainly see that 2015 rotation that BA projects of Stras, JZim, Peacock, Cole and Purke with a very lefty dominant bullpen.I am glad you are bullish on Alex Meyer. He could certainly develop as a big overpowering pitcher with several pitches.

I don't see Werth in 2015. Hood would be ready by then and if both Desi and Espi pan out and are really good player, there is no other spot to put Rendon other than an outfield spot. I hope when its time to cut Werth loose we don't hesitate at the expense of blocking the progress of ready prospects.

@ TheophilusBA's scouting report on Goodwin says that he's "still learing" centerfield, but that he "can become an above-average defender" there. No reason to pigeonhole him as a corner outfielder just yet.

DFL said… If the versatile Ben Zobrist is willing to move position once again in his career, Lombardozzi would fit in with the Rays. Who knows, perhaps the Nats could offer Lombardozzi and Detwiler for Upton. November 9, 2011 2:39 PM Have you been following along? Rumor was Houston wanted Detwiler for Bourn and Rizzo said NO so he certainly won't trade Detwiler with Lombo for Upton. Further, theres a good chance BJ Upton will be non-tendered prior to arbitration where he will be a Free Agent. My guess is Upton is way down on Rizzo's radar given his past performance and either before or after getting Sizemore and after re-signing Ankiel.

Theophilus said… People need to stop thinking spending a lot of money is going to make it all happen next year. It isn't. Settle for a couple of healthy, reasonably-priced veterans and don't screw up the roster. November 9, 2011 2:47 PM I am starting to think that is the case. Trade for a pitcher and get Coco Crisp in Free Agency.

Is it a common occurrence to trade older MLB ready prospects for younger prospects because many of our pitching prospects look like they will be ready at the same time(maybe a year overlap). Who usually wins in this kind of trades? Obviously, you cant count on everybody to pan out, but what if they do (its not unimaginable)?

Steve M. ' Werth in 3 years is a bench role guy. Lets hope the best 25 play without regard to paycheck size.' I knew this to be the case when the deal was announced as did just about every analyst. This is why I am not prepared to say that Rizzo is a good GM just yet. With any luck he has figured out that this was a major blunder; one which could have cost him his job.

Steve M. Don't be so sure that Werth will sit on the bench just because he should. Alex Rios, Vernon Wells and Carlos Lee all own these type of contracts, under perform them but still play. It's hard to swallow a $20 mil a year pill.

The trade discussion involving Lombardozzi got me to thinking – would you trade Lombardozzi and Detwiler to the Orioles for Adam Jones? He's not really a leadoff type, but he would solidify CF for at least a couple of years. As important – if you're the O's, do you make that trade?

I dont see Werth as a guy who would take a bench role. We have to let him go and eat some of the money. There is no way Rizzo wouldn't have known this. The money we payed him is just what we had to get him to come here and show other free agents that we are close to contending. It should have not affect our decision to let go of him when we have better younger options.

Look at it this way: If you have to spend money to get what you want, what's the difference who's cashing the checks, as long as you get what you want? Sure, nobody, including Rizzo, and probably including Werth, thought Werth would be a good value for all that money, especially in the latter years, but that was never the point. They had to ante up somehow, and buy a big expensive neon sign that said "We are a credible MLB team." They tried with Teixeira, and he turned them down. Werth was the guy they could convince to take the money.

Well, admittedly, IF Rizzo passed up Bourn for Detwiler straight up I'd think that he missed a big opportunity there. All the reporting that I saw said that the Astros wanted Detwiler as part of any package for Bourn. The key is what else was going with Detwiler. I have to admit that I'm a Detwiler skeptic. His numbers as a starter are pretty lousy (he has pitched well out of the bullpen), and are only made remotely respectable by just three September starts, two of which were on long (8 and 12 days) rest, and against three teams: the Mets (who stink), the Phillies (who had long ago clinched and were resting regulars) and the Braves (who were in the final throes of an epic collapse).If Detwiler weren't a former #1 (#6 overall) draft pick, I doubt that the team would be talking him up that much. Don't get me wrong – I hope that in Viera Detwiler seizes a spot in the rotation and never lets go. But until he puts up consistently over a significant period of time … well, color me skeptical.

btw, off topic, but I hear the O's are looking into bringing back their fantasy camp, after several years of neglect. Given that there is no Nationals fantasy camp yet, some folks might be interested. FWIW.

John C., I would have done Detwiler for Bourn. I would probably do Detwiler for Adam Jones. I don't know if I would do Lombardozzi in the same deal.Duquette has said that pitching is the #1 priority they have so I would try to propose Detwiler straight up. Adam Jones isn't a leadoff and would be a #6 hitter. The fact he is a RH batter gives a nice platoon to retain Ankiel.

I've got to think Rizzo had reason to believe he could do better than Bourn, if he declined on Detwiler straight up. Houston got three minor league pitchers from Atlanta, none of them top prospects apparently, and Jordan Shafer, who is now looking at felony you're-not-supposed-to-be-smoking-that charges, last I heard.

I can see Detwiler for Jones straight up, or even Detwiler plus a middle of the road prospect (Erik Komatsu, say). That would give the O's pitching and someone in the pipeline to potentially move into CF down the road. For the Nats it provides an interim player until one of the CF prospects is ready, but you're right – it doesn't solve the leadoff problem.

Gonat, Why would you want Ankiel anywhere near an everyday lineup? even platoon. At most I'd sign him to pinch hit and as a defensive replacement. Sec3, I have heard that argument about attracting free agents before and I think it's BS. Most free agents at the advise of their agents will come to your team if your offer is 5 cents higher than the next best bid. I think that if Rizzo didn't expect full value for the player he shouldn't have signed him. IMHO.

Several comments today (and I've seen this view in other threads as well) discuss Rizzo passing on a Detwiler for Bourn trade. I will say this again and again:I don't believe Rizzo ever was offered Bourn for Detwiler straight up. It's the kind of thing that gets repeated on the internet until everyone thinks it's true. But all of the reporting at the time was that the Astros wanted Detwiler as part of the package for Bourn. Bourn is a 4 WAR player; I suspect that the Astros were asking for a lot of other stuff and Rizzo balked.

I have heard that argument about attracting free agents before and I think it's BS. Most free agents at the advise of their agents will come to your team if your offer is 5 cents higher than the next best bid. I think that if Rizzo didn't expect full value for the player he shouldn't have signed him. IMHO.jd, fair enough, but A. I don't believe that is true. There are plenty of counter examples of players taking less to play where they want to play–Teixeira comes to mind immediately just because his name just came up. Buehrle is (reliably, I think) reported to have said he's *got* money, he wants a ring. Just to name a couple. and 2) it depends on what you consider "fair value." Even overlooking the first point for the sake of argument, there are so-called intangibles and they are worth money.

I agree but lets face it in the last few years the Astros have been going for quantity more than high prospect quality. That J.A. Happ deal in the Oswalt trade turned to garbage. The Bourn deal was weak. Keppinger was traded for Jason Stoffel and Henry Sosa. The Pence deal had some decent prospects.You have to wonder what the Astros would take for Wandy.

What's up with Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Nationals are trying to elbow their way into the Madson negotiations? Is this just Rosenthal's usually half-assery, Maybe it's Rizzo screwing with Amaro?For the love of Harper I hope the Nationals aren't seriously considering spending money on Madson.

Run Yeti Run said… What's up with Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Nationals are trying to elbow their way into the Madson negotiations? Is this just Rosenthal's usually half-assery, Maybe it's Rizzo screwing with Amaro?For the love of Harper I hope the Nationals aren't seriously considering spending money on Madson. November 9, 2011 4:59 PM _______________________________This has Scott Boras fingerprints all over it. The only credibility is that Werth was trying to get Madson over here. What's he worth? $8 million a year for 3 years.

Well, we know less than usual about what was offered for Bourn, since there was very little in the media about us and Houston at the time (Span dominated the headlines), but if Rizzo refused to trade Detwiler for Bourn, even if it was Det plus some mediocre prospects or Bernie, then I would be disappointed. I think that you have to make that trade, even if we are giving up a little more than he is worth, because Det is part of an organizational strength and it would go to fill a weakness. I wouldn't hugely overpay, but I might pay a little more. Plus, I am not sold on Det as a starter – hope that I am wrong.I am also not as sure as some of you that Werth is a bench player at 35. With his body type, defense and baserunning skills, I could see him as a 2-2.5 WAR player towards the end of the contract. That isn't an above average player, but it isn't Vernon Wells either. He still wouldn't be justifying the contract, but I think that he could be a contributor.

Wally, Good post as usual. I for one don't believe Werth will be benched even if we have better options than him. How do you tell your employers who are paying him $20 mil a year that he's not as good as the rookie playing for minimum wage? If Rizzo is gone then that's a different story altogether.

I think it is a bit much to claim the Stros got fleeced in the Oswalt deal. They saved $12M, got Happ who is under control forever and is useful and they landlrod two prospects in addition, one of whom the Stros moved for Brett Wallace. How is that a loser for the Stros that were going no place with Oswalt in 2011 anyway?dfh21

To add to the fun, here's a snippet of what Aaron Fitt at Baseball America had to say about Lombo during the chat: "I think he's going to hit .280-.310, control the strike zone, hit situationally, play rock-solid defense, pick his spots on the bases and make his teammates better. There have been plenty of players with that profile who have made all-star teams (the proverbial Ecksteins). I'm telling you, he's a good player.

Roberto — I think Lombo has a decent shot to be that guy — the .280+ do most things well 2B, which is why I am thinking they will shop Desmond. Espinosa can play SS, Lombo is ready to play 2B now, both are young and under control forever. Desmond does not project for power and he does not project for top of the order OBP or even pu-it-in-play as a 2 hole guy (139 K's for a few ounces of power? — he is inexplicably raw at the plate). And for all his range and athleticism, the guy does not make the everyday plays – -so his glove is not stellar to support the iffy and seemingly not improving bat (his career OPS at all levels is something under .700). So, the club has a younger guy in Espi that can glove at least as well as Desmond at SS and with better upside (power, bats switch), and they have Lombo who has skills, maybe not the All Star upside pedigree, but the WallyBackmaness you can't hate to play 2B. So, Desmond in some package to get something the club needs? I can see that happening.dfh21

Coupla points.I think they'll deal Desmond at some point to make room for Rendon, if not Lombo.In his chat on Monday, Boz was down on Grady Sizemore, lukewarm on Coco Crisp and bullish on signing B.J. Upton as a free agent.Q. Since the Nats are a year away, do they pursue Grady Sizemore as a stop gap and if he plays well trade him and get value like Matt Capps? A. "Forget Sizemore. He's had two bad years in a row — when he's played. In more than 200 ABs last year, he did almost nothing and stole 0 bases. Zero. Don't waste the time."If you want an under-the-radar CF who switch hits, led the league in SB this year w 49 and 81 SBs the last two years with a fantastic SB percentage, look at Coco Crisp."Problem: his career on-base percentage is a hair below league average. But he's played for playoff teams and covers ground in CF. No, I wouldn't go after him. I'm just saying that there are solid players who aren't hurt and who still have their tools that I'd put far above Sizemore. Crisp is a $5M player."Love to see B.J. Upton signed as a free agent CF if he ends up non-tendered by the Rays, as seems likely."

There you go, right on Boz, no trade, just CA$H!Boz writes…"Love to see B.J. Upton signed as a free agent CF if he ends up non-tendered by the Rays, as seems likely." A few hours ago a poster here wanted to traded Detwiler & Lombo for him. Sheesh, that's what irks me. The most I would trade for him is Cutter Dykstra so it feels more like the Nats traded Nyjer for BJ. LOL

Gonat, I have a slightly different take on it. Better to offer Cutter Dykstra and do it as a trade. That way Upton's salary will be under arbitration which will be lower than Free Agency and the Nats wont have to compete in the open market with other teams. The A's and Indians are looking for CFs.

Drew8, thank you for the Boz chat. Hard to follow the one paragraph where he was talking about both Crisp and Sizemore. His concern on Crisp is that he isn't above league average OBP.BJ Upton will be due $7 million in arbitration. Not sure if he is a defensive upgrade over Crisp, will cost more, and isn't nearly as good running the bases.BJ Upton is a high strikeout guy. Crisp has better small ball skills. I think if in fact Rizzo can get BJ Upton as a non-tender FA, then great but agree with Mark'd that the Nats may not get him as the A's or Indians could snag him.I still like Crisp. He bats leadoff, BJ Upton doesn't. If you can't get Crisp and get BJ Upton without having to give up prospects, great. BJ Upton is a Righthanded, Bernadina Lefthanded. That is very attractive although Crisp is s switch-hitter.