When I was Command Duty Officer on various Navy ship's, the adage "The First Report is Always Wrong" was always good advice.

I'm currently in New Zealand planning the penultimate bug out, and the nice folks I'm staying with have confused this Route 91 Harvest Festival with the evangelical SoCal Harvest that takes place in Anaheim and are telling their friends that this is an assault on Christians. I cant confirm that, since I don't want to sleep on the lawn, I'm keeping my mouth shut. This is how inaccurate news spreads.

Stephen Paddock appears to have been a retired accountant and real estate investor, private pilot who has owned two airplanes.

Rewatching the videos, at least one burst of fire sounded like a full auto-empty the magazine-mad minute. I got to do that back in the day before the M-16 A2 limited us to three round bursts.

I've never bump fired a semi-auto rifle, so I don't know what it would sound like. There was little echo or distortion in the video I watched, but the intervals of the shots seemed mechanically even. I speculate that bump firing, especially by a 64 yo man, would be more uneven. (EDIT: Thanks to YouTube, I now know how to bump fire.)

This is moot in view of viewing several bump fire videos on Youtube. PS. Lisa Jean makes me wish I was 30 years younger, or 30 million dollars richer. [I've know a private pilot or two and all of them (admittedly small sample) built or work on their own airplanes. That might have given the shooter the skill or at least the access to tools to modify a few weapons. Not being a gunsmith or even a blacksmith, I don't know if the high school trope of "filing down the sear" would convert a semi-auto into a full auto weapon.

I'm currently in New Zealand planning the penultimate bug out, and the nice folks I'm staying with have confused this Route 91 Harvest Festival with the evangelical SoCal Harvest that takes place in Anaheim and are telling their friends that this is an assault on Christians. I cant confirm that, since I don't want to sleep on the lawn, I'm keeping my mouth shut. This is how inaccurate news spreads.

The brother is saying he was an atheist or agnostic. That fits the profile of most non-Islamic shooters. I'd say it would be stretch too far to say it is an attack on Christians since it was not religious gathering or even music show.

The suspicion, based on initial reports, is that at least one of the rifles used was altered to function as an automatic weapon, the official said. Among the weapons found were a .223 caliber and a .308 caliber.

Key phrase: "The suspicion, based on initial reports" - leading to my 'suspicion' that the media is wrong and it is much more likely to be a bumpfire or weapon purchased as a full auto

The experts are currently say I g trigger crank or bump fire stock based on the ragged speed of the shooting. Just from what I found searching YouTube, I can't disagree with them.

All of the info at the Route 91 Country Music Festival web page has been reduced to a single page about the shooting.

Some background info from other sources:

The fourth edition of the event from Live Nation's country division, named for the iconic Las Vegas Boulevard, is a showcase for a range of country and western talents from established heavyweights such as headliners Eric Church, Sam Hunt and Jason Aldean to new up and comers.

The Review-Journal reported that country fans who enrolled in the Transportation Security Administration's PreCheck program would jump the line into a "fast pass lane" that would help them gain entry to the Route 91 event more quickly...

HISTORY: The festival is one of a suite of similar events promoted by Live Nation across the country......

Concert organizer Brian O'Connell told the paper in 2014 that he chose the name because it just sounded cool to him. Before the Strip was lined with casinos, it was called Route 91. "Nobody knew it. And that’s what I love about it,” O’Connell said.

Around 20,000 people turned up for the inaugural edition in 2014 to hear Aldean, Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert, among others, with the Review-Journal writing, "Fans of the Nashville sound made the south end of the Strip look like a country fair for a few days. Cornhole games were speckled in between cowboy hat vendors and lawn chairs with signs reading 'redneck seating.'

The 2016 event (Sept. 30 - Oct 2) featured an equally packed lineup, with headlining performances from Luke Bryan, Toby Keith, Brad Paisley, Little Big Town and Chris Young. The festival site has a capacity of 25,000 and according to a report in the Las Vegas Review-Journal Las Vegas locals accounted for only 5 percent of the 2015 attendees of Route 91 (Oct. 2-4), which hosted Florida Georgia Line, Thomas Rhett, Gary Allan, Lady Antebellum, Tim McGraw and Brett Eldredge.

This really a weird one as to why. My suggestion is that it is not something anyone of us would begin to understand...at least I would hope not...unless it is from studying such douchebags.

That and the real story, despite what social media says, has yet to be told.

Mass murder shooting is what I meant
It will be interesting to see just what is uncovered about this guy. Two days after the fact seems to add to the strangeness . My son just showed me a video posted by one of his friends on facebook who had attended the show. Taken from the perspective of the rear of the crowd it appears that you can see his darkened window ( from the broken glass) But the thing I've not seen or heard on any of the other videos of the attack is for several minutes before he lets off that first long burst , you can distinctly hear single shots. So he evidently had been sniping specific targets. \
For a person considered a person of interest in the worst mass shooting in U.S. modern history. The FBI is not seeming to be very persistent in even finding out exactly where his GF is, much less bringing her back for questioning. And why isn't she rushing back here on her own . I mean if I was on vacation and a close loved one was killed I'd be on the first available flight back.
The leaked photos of the hotel room clearly show what appears to be a note , held down by a roll of duct tape next to his body. It looks like it is hand written. If it is a note what does it say and why has this not been mentioned in the news briefings?
After your post I started looking at a list of mass shootings. In every case there is either history of mental illness, history of violent behavior, drug use, antisocial behavior. purported claims of bullying. lack of achievement that was expressed by the shooters to be the result of persons other than themselves . This guy was successful, rich. so far no apparent prior aggressive, unstable, loner, criminal or sadistic tendencies. So what ? After doing well in his life his golden years with all the money he made in his lifetime was to plan and execute the worst mass shooting in history?

The FBI didn't have any problem to track the girlfriend down; they immediately found she was in the Philippines. She flew back AQAP and arrived last night.
______________________________________________________________

"The Las Vegas gunman bought his girlfriend a ticket to the Philippines and “sent her away” to spare her life, her distraught sisters said Wednesday. Stephen Paddock bought Marilou Danley “a cheap ticket” to her home country two weeks before he opened fire on a country music concert on the Las Vegas Strip."

Her sisters, who live in Australia, believe she knew nothing of Paddock’s deadly intentions.

“She didn’t even know that she was going to the Philippines, until Steve said ‘Marilou, I found you a cheap ticket to the Philippines,’” one of the sisters, who spoke on condition they not be identified, told NBC’s Australian partner, Channel 7.

“She was sent away," the woman said of Danley, "so that she will not be there to interfere with what he’s planning." She added that with her sister out of the country, Paddock could plan "without interruptions."

Paddock, 64, wired $100,000 to an account in the Philippines in the week before Sunday’s shooting, senior law enforcement officials told NBC News.

Another interweb theory that sounds reasonable to me would be heavy recreational use of Alprazolam or something similar, then a sudden withdraw. This can trigger violent behavior and suicide.

However he bought these guns many months ago. He seems to have been planning this for a while.

"Paddock, who had no previous record of violence or crime, was prescribed an anti-anxiety drug in June that can lead to aggressive behaviour, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

It said records showed Paddock was prescribed 50 diazepam tablets by a doctor on 21 June.

Paddock bought the drug - also known as Valium - on the same day it was prescribed. He was supposed to take one pill a day.

Diazepam is a sedative-hypnotic drug in the class of drugs known as benzodizepines, which studies have shown can trigger aggressive behaviour."

So the guy was on some meds that has been shown to trigger aggressive behavior and because of that, he decided to play human Duck Hunt ?

I guess in some way that explains why someone with zero history of violence and had what most people would consider a successful life would snap like that. There's probably going to be a lot more information on the guy's mental health popping up in the next few weeks that might explain why he was prescribed those medications and the events leading up to his evil deeds.

Another interweb theory that sounds reasonable to me would be heavy recreational use of Alprazolam or something similar, then a sudden withdraw. This can trigger violent behavior and suicide.

However he bought these guns many months ago. He seems to have been planning this for a while.

"Paddock, who had no previous record of violence or crime, was prescribed an anti-anxiety drug in June that can lead to aggressive behaviour, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

It said records showed Paddock was prescribed 50 diazepam tablets by a doctor on 21 June.

Paddock bought the drug - also known as Valium - on the same day it was prescribed. He was supposed to take one pill a day.

Diazepam is a sedative-hypnotic drug in the class of drugs known as benzodizepines, which studies have shown can trigger aggressive behaviour."

So much for "no history of mental illness".

It goes back to this every single fucking time.

I am all about better living through chemistry. BP meds and antibiotics have extended the life of billions. But these brain drugs are remarkably consistent with active shooters. Any other drug that had a 1 in hundred thousand chance of spontaneously killing a few dozen people a year would have been banned immediately. Instead they keep prescribing more and and more of this crap.

A lot of people go to Dubai, it is a very popular tourist destination. I keep meaning to go so I can see Ferrari World which is nearby. I am just afraid that one more 20 hour flight will cause me to lose my mind.

Stercutus wrote:A lot of people go to Dubai, it is a very popular tourist destination. I keep meaning to go so I can see Ferrari World which is nearby. I am just afraid that one more 20 hour flight will cause me to lose my mind.

It is also a very buzy hub city for a lot of Asian flights. He may have also transited to there to go the Philippines
via Emirates Air.

Still if true it is a piece of the puzzle that may or may not be relevant.

Last edited by raptor on Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Stercutus wrote:
I am all about better living through chemistry. BP meds and antibiotics have extended the life of billions. But these brain drugs are remarkably consistent with active shooters. Any other drug that had a 1 in hundred thousand chance of spontaneously killing a few dozen people a year would have been banned immediately. Instead they keep prescribing more and and more of this crap.

You may very well be looking at this the wrong way around. It's more likely that a lot of people who are at risk of becoming mass killers end up having some kind of a doctor prescribe psychoactive meds. Then the meds turn out not to be enough to prevent the person from acting on the impulse to become a mass killer. Then people on forums blame it on the meds, not the underlying mental health problems that caused the prescribing of the meds.

Stercutus wrote:
I am all about better living through chemistry. BP meds and antibiotics have extended the life of billions. But these brain drugs are remarkably consistent with active shooters. Any other drug that had a 1 in hundred thousand chance of spontaneously killing a few dozen people a year would have been banned immediately. Instead they keep prescribing more and and more of this crap.

You may very well be looking at this the wrong way around. It's more likely that a lot of people who are at risk of becoming mass killers end up having some kind of a doctor prescribe psychoactive meds. Then the meds turn out not to be enough to prevent the person from acting on the impulse to become a mass killer. Then people on forums blame it on the meds, not the underlying mental health problems that caused the prescribing of the meds.

Just a thought.

I'd agree except there is a problem with the theory. Prior to the introduction of these scripts in to our society mass public shooting that were not politically related were a bit of a rarity. Still, even then the shooter was most often seriously mentally ill, such as with the Texas Bell Tower shooter. I'd also be more inclined to agree if there were significant numbers of shooters who:

- Were not on/ off meds
- Not other wise motivated (terror or whatever)

Stercutus wrote:
I am all about better living through chemistry. BP meds and antibiotics have extended the life of billions. But these brain drugs are remarkably consistent with active shooters. Any other drug that had a 1 in hundred thousand chance of spontaneously killing a few dozen people a year would have been banned immediately. Instead they keep prescribing more and and more of this crap.

You may very well be looking at this the wrong way around. It's more likely that a lot of people who are at risk of becoming mass killers end up having some kind of a doctor prescribe psychoactive meds. Then the meds turn out not to be enough to prevent the person from acting on the impulse to become a mass killer. Then people on forums blame it on the meds, not the underlying mental health problems that caused the prescribing of the meds.

Just a thought.

I'd agree except there is a problem with the theory. Prior to the introduction of these scripts in to our society mass public shooting that were not politically related were a bit of a rarity. Still, even then the shooter was most often seriously mentally ill, such as with the Texas Bell Tower shooter. I'd also be more inclined to agree if there were significant numbers of shooters who:

- Were not on/ off meds
- Not other wise motivated (terror or whatever)

But they are ALL on/off meds.

I'd say you may have a confounding variable in the form of TV and social media. Some other factors may be at play too. But the rise of meds is side by side with the rise of TV and mass attention.

You also see the fraying of social fabric and a change in morality, for what effect that is having.

Changes in identity structure and formation may also be having an effect.

Basically I'm saying we have more assholery and tolerance for assholery than we used to. But I'm using fancy words to say it. Some would call this progress, some would call it regression.

Assholes are nothing new. But I think media attention is. And I think the number of assholes varies with social tolerance for them.

*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.