Political Standing for Sept. 14, 2012

Saturday, 7:15 a.m., Political Scoop: My guest this week is Chris Pappas, the Democratic nominee for the Manchester area Executive Council open seat. We talk about why he is running for the position, what he made of the wild Republican primary for the right to take him on, and how chicken fingers and ice cream bring everyone together.

Sunday, 10 a.m., CloseUP: Following their gubernatorial primary election losses, former State Sen. Jackie Cilley, D-Barrington, and conservative activist Kevin Smith, R-Litchfield, review their campaigns. Then, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal makes time for host Josh McElveen during his brief visit to New Hampshire. After that, I come on to review the primary, particularly some of the down ballot races.

Picture Of The Week

Um, Foster’s Daily Democrat...Castaldo won.

Photos

Um, Foster’s Daily Democrat...Castaldo won.

For Those Keeping Track

Ovide Lamontagne’s win on Tuesday was his first since 1996 and the first win for his campaign manager, Paul Collins, since 2002.

In Case You Missed It

Yes, there is a lot of State House buzz about whether there were some “non-unity” comments made at the unity breakfast, between former State Senator Andy Sanborn and the campaign manager for the man he defeated in the primary Tuesday. I didn’t hear the conversation, so I am going to leave that alone. But, more broadly, given that the manager is definitely "Team Jeb Bradley," where does this tension go from here? Did Sanborn kick off a run for Senate President on Wednesday? Does this just hurt Team Bradley for getting so involved in the first place?

For The Record

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus raised somewhere around $75,000 for the national party during his luncheon at the Rath, Young, Pignatelli law firm. During his remarks on Friday, he apparently said, "Nobody messes with New Hampshire and now we need you.”

Noted

With the violence against American Embassies in the Middle East, please keep your thoughts with Salem’s James Smith, who has served as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia since 2009.

Trivia

Last week I asked: Name the last time the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees appeared in New Hampshire on the same day.

OK, so I admit that I didn’t know this one either, but I was hoping that some smart reader would inform us all. Given that there was no answer submitted, and I don’t know the answer either, is it possible that it has never happened before?

Now, for this week: With the presidential contest in New Hampshire remaining very tight, name the presidential nominee who won the New Hampshire by the smallest vote total and what year that was.

Be the first to give the answer in an email (jpindell@hearst.com), and I’ll recognize you next week.

Questions For The Weekend

Any guesses on when Jackie Cilley will restart her email newsletter?

Have Andy Sanborn and Josh Youssef sat down to chat a bit?

What is Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas thinking right now (particularly about the governor’s race and the Chuck Rolecek loss)?

When will Carol Shea-Porter go up with television ads?

How exactly is a lawyer a businessman?

Was it worth Bob Burns's nasty tactics to get where he is today?

Was Tuesday’s Democratic Primary a sign that Democrats learned their lesson from 2002?

Will “the pledge” last longer than the Old Man of the Mountain?

Does money even matter in the governor’s race at this point? Isn’t this just going to be a RGA/DGA air war supplemented by an Obama/Romney ground game?

Given how many outside groups are claiming victory for candidates they endorsed, are they telling the candidates who actually ran that, um, “they didn’t win it?”

Is Maggie Hassan mispronouncing Ovide Lamontagne’s last name on purpose because she knows it drives him nuts?

UP

Annmarie Timmins: With Josh Youssef winning, this Concord Monitor reporter will be a bit busier these days.

Bill O’Brien: A solid win the primary and wins for his type of candidates around the state should continue to rebut the hopes of Democrats -- and some Republicans -- who don’t want him to be House Speaker again. Unless something dramatic happens, he will be. End of story.

Ray Burton: Even as his primary opponent’s radio ads suggested, no one has beaten the man since 1978.

Bob Burns: He was outgunned in pretty much every way during his three way Republican primary, except one: work ethic on the campaign trail.

Zombies.

Lawyer jokes: Both gubernatorial nominees are of that ilk.

Chris Pappas: He is out raising money and campaigning while Burns is distracted by a recount. A Burns nomination would give Pappas huge numbers coming out of Manchester, but, and this is a big but, Burns showed he is a worker, and this still is a Republican district.

Andrew Hosmer: Even if the Senate Republican leadership isn’t going to back Hosmer’s Republican opponent Josh Youseff, this is going to be a Republican disaster district, and Democrat Hosmer can smile at his goodfor fortune (for once.)

Maggie Hassan/Matt Burgess/Nick Clemons: This is a race Hassan was supposed to win, but her grit in the last week, particularly the last weekend, is what made this happen. It speaks well to any national fundraising group wondering if they should invest in this campaign. If this team can do that, this is going to be a great race.

Ovide Lamontagne: Lamontagne’s only real opponent on Election Day was beating expectations. Grabbing 68 percent of the vote on primary night easily did that.

Andy Sanborn: His primary victory proves that the outsiders don't care what statehouse insiders think, do, or say. Sanborn knocked on their doors, and they rewarded him.

Manchester Republicans: For decades, the Republican nominees at the top of the ticket have been from anywhere else but the state's largest city. However, for the last two election cycles (2010 and 2012), both the nominees for Governor and Congress in CD-1 have been from Manchester (a Democratic city by party registration). This will, for the second time, make the state's largest city very politically competitive and help Republicans down the ballot in Manchester pick up votes they might not have gotten without Ovide and Guinta at the top of the ballot.

Standing Up For New Hampshire Families: Sure they are happy that pro-gay marriage Republican candidates won some primaries, but they get the up for being the first organization to figure out and test the new legal opinion where Citizen’s United blew the cap off of maximum contributions for state PACs. It was a game-changing play.

DOWN

Mitt Romney: The national chattering class seems to have come to the conclusion that there are just nine presidential battleground states, including New Hampshire. Leaving aside all the criticism he is taking on foreign policy comments to the national figures, here in the Granite State, Romney has longer-term problems. Of all those nine states, we know Romney the best. He has been on New Hampshire television for 10 years. He announced his recent run in the state, he kicked off the general election in the state, and he even planned to introduce his vice presidential pick in the state. Yet, the WMUR Granite State Poll shows that his favorability rating is still underwater. More people here don’t like him than like him. Meanwhile, his opponent continues to lead every poll here since the New Hampshire Primary. This race is too close to call, but the fundamentals are not strong.

Jackie Cilley: Simply looking at where Cilley was a week ago to where she is today her political standing has gone down. She could have a future in politics if she wants. She is a dynamic speaker and well informed. But let’s face it: her campaign was a total disaster. There were signs of it early when her campaign manager left, frustrated with the candidate. Another very well-meaning and well-liked manager was put in charge, but in no way had they ever done anything like this. It wasn’t until the final month that Cilley actually hired anyone with data on targeting voters. Still, a week ago, when everyone thought that turnout would be far lower than it ended up being, it looked like she might still be able to pull it off. Some in the party are making the argument that this is the end of the “pledge conversation” for years. That might be. But the real lesson, for Democrats and Republicans, is that campaigns aren’t costume parties. They are becoming more data driven and more like science. That might not sound too inspiring and fun, but it’s the game now. Get with it, or your ideas lose.

Profile Strategy Group: Their two big clients on primary night were Chuck Rolecek, who finished third in the three-way Republican Executive Council primary, and Kevin Smith, who was never expected to win the nomination, but he didn’t even get anywhere close.

Union Leader: Endorsements in a local race are supposed to matter – but it didn’t in EC4. But, hey, we learned of a new business idea for them this week.

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