Busy hurricane season forecast

Sunday

Aug 18, 2013 at 6:00 AMAug 18, 2013 at 7:52 AM

By Bill FortierCORRESPONDENT

Could this be the year when a tropical system defies the meteorological odds and crashes into Central Massachusetts?

Forecasters are calling for a busy season that is entering its prime time this week. Historical averages note that about six hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles per hour form each year during the hurricane season that runs through Nov. 30.

The East Coast and Gulf of Mexico hurricane season got off to a fast start with four storms being tracked by meteorologists through late July. None of them became hurricanes.

It was quiet, however, until last week when Tropical Storm Erin formed off the coast of Africa. Meanwhile, forecasters were monitoring what could become Tropical Storm Fernand near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Erin was in the process of winding down with no danger of landfall, forecasters said Sunday.

“We could be talking about two named storms this weekend,” said Daniel G. Kottlowski, expert senior forecaster and lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.com.

Philip J. Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project — where William Gray has become well-known for the accuracy of his predictions on the number of tropical systems each year — said the recent uptick in activity is right on schedule.

“Between 75 and 80 percent of all the named storms occur between August 20 and the end of September,” said Mr. Klotzbach.

National Hurricane Center Public Affairs Officer Dennis Feltgen has been a broadcast meteorologist in several cities, including Tampa, Fla., which hasn't had a direct hit from a hurricane in almost 100 years. He says the season is going the way forecasters expected when it comes to their early season frequency.

When it comes to avoiding hurricanes, New England can't make the same claim as Tampa, Fla.

Old timers will recall the 1938 hurricane and a spate of tropical systems that caused heavy damage in 1954 and 1955, but the last serious storm to hit this area was Bob in 1991.

Weather and emergency management officials stress that water, not wind, can cause the most problems in this area.

“We're stressing water this year, both for people along the coast and in your area,” Mr. Feltgen said.

A trip through Southern Vermont as recently as last weekend is proof of the power of water as Grafton, Weston, and Brattleboro are among communities where new bridges are being built after Tropical Storm Irene caused massive flooding in 2011.

So what lies ahead for this area during this hurricane season?

Mr. Klotzbach, who is a Plymouth native, said the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic where storms can form and strengthen has been stable and dry longer into August than usual and that has kept storms from forming. He said computer models show that changing in the upcoming weeks.

“I think we may be at a teetering point, “ he said. “If the atmosphere east of Africa and over the Atlantic continues to be dry and stable, we might have to reduce the number of storms.”

Mr. Kottlowski said he would not be surprised to see that dry air could inhibit the strengthening of Tropical Storm Erin.

Mr. Klotzbach and Joseph S. D'Aleo, chief forecaster at New York City-based Weatherbell.com, said the lack of an El Nino is a big reason why forecasters are looking for up to six more storms than average this season. El Ninos caused the water of the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm which, in turn, causes high level winds to blow harder than usual in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. When that happens, storms east of the United States get ripped apart before they become hurricanes.

Tropical systems need water temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer to maintain themselves, and Mr. Klotzbach said the ocean temperature is slightly above average, although the water has cooled slightly since the spring.

Mr. Feltgen said people and forecasters focus too much on the predicted number of storms. Both he and Mr Kottlowski said all it takes is one storm to make a season memorable for a particular area.

“Numbers don't mean squat, “ Mr. Feltgen said.

For example, he said 1992 only had seven named storms but one of them was a Category Five, Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of south Florida.

Some forecasters say the U.S. East Coast is overdue for a major hurricane. In fact, a hurricane model program developed at Coastal Carolina University is predicting at least one major hurricane to make landfall on the East Coast during the current season.

Back in June when heavy rain inundated Central Massachusetts, with up to a foot of rain in some locations, forecasters said a similar weather pattern during the hurricane season with a strong southerly flow up the coast could bring a tropical system this way.

Mr. Kottlowski said weather this August has featured a flow of air from Canada that would push any tropical system harmlessly out to sea.

“There has been a lot of close calls in recent years,” he said.

Mr. Kottlowski said the weather pattern is changing, at least for a little while.

“Any old-timer in New England will tell you that when you get a cool spell in August like you've had, it usually turns warm and humid later in the month, and that is what is going to be happening,” he said.

The big question is whether a storm will be in what Mr. Kottlowski said is “just the right place to hit Central Massachusetts.”

“Everything has to line up just right, which is why you don't get hurricanes very often in New England,” he said.

Mr. D'Aleo, who is a nationally known climatologist, said the East Coast is in the middle of an approximately 30- to 40-year cycle when tropical systems are numerous.

Like Mr. Kottlowski, Mr. D'Aleo said the weather pattern in upcoming weeks could be favorable to a tropical strike in this area.