THE NATION; Look Who Talks To The Enemy

By HELENE COOPER

Published: December 16, 2007

IF there is one thing that the past two weeks have shown, it's that America is about to enter a new age of talk.

Even if there weren't going to be an election next November that would usher in a new administration, the United States, under President Bush, would be entering a new age of talk. Seven years of President Bush's Don't-Talk-to-Evil policy are over, even under the helm of the administration that crafted it.

Now administration officials are openly making nice with Syria, holding round after round of talks with Iran over the fate of Iraq, and making preliminary plans for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to visit Libya.

And President Bush himself has gotten in on the act -- writing a personal (''cordial,'' the White House says) letter to the secretive and enigmatic North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il that held out the possibility of normalizing diplomatic relations.

The morphing of the White House from imperial protector of American presidential exclusivity to sending Christmastime greetings to North Korean dictators will leave the next president, whoever he or she is, with a lot more legroom to decide whether to talk to America's foes, foreign policy experts say. These experts include Republicans and Democrats, current and former officials from all administrations since 1977.

''Will we talk to the rogues or not?'' says Robert J. Einhorn, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He says the answer is clear: We will.

''The approach that the Bush administration has taken in the second term makes it more likely that a successor administration will engage more than President Bush was prepared to engage in his first term,'' Mr. Einhorn said.

While a new Republican administration will likely be ''more wary than a Democratic one,'' he continued, either a Republican or Democratic administration will be more chatty with America's foes.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani comes perhaps the closest to the Bush administration's line about reserving the privilege of American diplomatic engagement for friendly countries. But Mr. Giuliani is likely to follow the Bush administration's new tack, foreign policy experts said.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton often advocates the toughest-sounding position when it comes to national security -- she took Barack Obama to task a few months ago for saying that he would be willing to meet with Iran's leaders.

But ''any moderate Democratic administration may be perfectly willing to send their secretary of state to meet with the Iranians under certain circumstances,'' said Kenneth M. Pollack, director of research at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. And while Mrs. Clinton said that she wouldn't meet personally with the leaders of Iran, Syria, North Korea and Cuba in her first year without knowing their intentions, she has not ruled out allowing a lower-level envoy, like a secretary of state, to hold talks with those countries.

''She supports direct negotiations with Iran, and the sooner, the better,'' said Lee Feinstein, national security director for Mrs. Clinton's campaign.

A lot would depend on things like who is occupying the Iranian presidency at the time. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current president, will be up for re-election in the spring of 2009, and it is America's fervent hope that he will be replaced by someone the United States sees as more moderate, like, perhaps, former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Clearly, figuring out when it is right to talk or not to talk to enemies is no small matter. Looking at the long list of countries and organizations that have been in the United States' doghouse, those who would be the new president will have their work cut out for them in figuring out whom to talk to, and when. For example:

NORTH KOREA Who would have thought that Pyongyang would be the likeliest to get an invitation to a t?-??? But the Bush administration has already started the ball rolling, and is working feverishly to finish up an agreement that will eventually normalize relations between the United States and North Korea in exchange for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That agreement is far from done, but expect the next secretary of state, Democrat or Republican, to visit Pyongyang, foreign policy experts say.

IRAN The National Intelligence Estimate released this month says Iran stopped work on a nuclear weapon in 2003. That makes it much easier for the next president to engage Tehran diplomatically -- especially since President Bush already has. But expect some restraint in the first few months of 2009, as American officials hold their breath hoping that Mr. Ahmadinejad loses the Iranian presidential elections, which are supposed to be held in the late spring or early summer of 2009. And remember, the real ruler of Iran is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the key will be figuring out who can reach out to him.

SYRIA Ms. Rice has already met with her Syrian counterpart twice this year, and even invited Syria to the big Middle East meeting in Annapolis last month. Look for the next president to send an American ambassador back to Damascus, foreign policy experts say.

HAMAS The United States considers the militant Islamic organization, which won the Palestinian parliamentary elections last year and now controls Gaza, a terrorist group. So opening up a dialogue with Hamas is going to be a tough nut to crack, no matter which party wins the presidency. If the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, who is currently a United States darling, kisses and makes up with Hamas and somehow gets the organization to agree to recognize Israel, there's a chance. But it's a pretty small one, the experts say.

HEZBOLLAH Another name on the American terrorist list, but this case, while hard, may not be as tough a nut as Hamas, especially if the ongoing Syrian-American d?nte continues. ''The Americans are already talking to Nabih Berri,'' says a former Israeli peace negotiator, Daniel Levy, referring to a Shiite Muslim Lebanese politician who has close ties to Hezbollah and Syria.

CUBA A toss-up, unless Fidel Castro dies. But a Democratic win would probably see a return to the discussion of moderate trade openings which were cut off after President Bush came to power.

LIBYAMuammar el-Qaddafi desperately wants a visit from Ms. Rice, and will likely get it soon. Expect the same from the next administration.

VENEZUELAHugo Ch?z probably won't be getting a state dinner at the White House, no matter who is elected president. But with Mr. Bush gone -- the man Mr. Ch?z famously described as ''the devil'' before the United NationsGeneral Assembly in 2006 -- the fiery Venezuelan strongman will be hard pressed to come up with a more colorful noun to describe the next president.