World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Equity futures are rebounding overnight after yesterday’s little “set back.” The dollar and bonds are lower, of course, to pull it off, while oil sneaks in like a thief, gold & silver play defense against the theft, and food commodities are mixed.

Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence number came in near the all-time low set back in March, 2009. Funny, but on the same day State Street “Investor” Confidence jumped. Seems to me that’s a pretty good allegory. It’s that way because nothing is real in our economy anymore – the only thing we now dominate in manufacturing is RISK.

Today the hypocritical Mortgage Bank wonks are lying again with their claim that home Purchases rose 6.4% in the past week… please. Here’s Econogullible:

Highlights
The volume of mortgage applications bounced back from the prior week's Columbus Day lull. Purchase applications rose 6.4 percent in the October 21 week with refinancing applications up 4.4 percent. Rates were steady in the week with the average 30-year fixed-rate loan at 4.33 percent for conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) and up slightly to 4.68 percent for jumbo loan balances ($417,500 or greater).

Whatever… I don’t believe anything that comes out of the MBA – period.

Durable Goods Orders remain in negative territory at -.8% despite being measured in dollars that are undergoing an explosion in quantity:

Highlights
The headline is sluggish but outside of transportation, durables orders are showing broad-based strength. New factory orders for durables declined 0.8 percent in September after slipping an unrevised 0.1 percent the prior month. The September decline was in line with analysts' estimate for a 1.0 percent drop. Excluding transportation, durables rebounded 1.7 percent, following a 0.4 percent decrease in August. The market median forecast called for a 0.5 percent boost in durables excluding transportation.

The only major industry category to decline in September was transportation which dropped 7.5 percent after rising 0.6 percent in August. Weakness was primarily in aircraft with defense down 33.9 percent and nondefense down 25.5 percent. Some of the weakness in transportation was in autos, which is baffling, given recently healthy sales. Motor vehicles dipped 2.7 percent after a 9.1 percent drop in August.

Outside of transportation, orders were healthy across the board. Increases were seen in primary metals, up 2.6 percent; fabricated metals, up 1.9 percent; machinery, up 1.8 percent; computers & electronics, up 1.0 percent; electrical equipment, up 1.9 percent; and "other," up 1.0 percent.

Looking at private capital equipment related numbers, nondefense capital goods orders posted a healthy 2.4 percent gain, following a 0.5 percent rise in August. Shipments for this series, however, softened with a 0.9 percent dip in September but followed a strong 3.1 percent jump in August.

Overall, durables orders point to continued gains in manufacturing. Again, hard data are running stronger than surveys and anecdotes. On the news, equity futures improved somewhat.

Sure, “broad-based strength,” IF you remove this, that, and the other thing we don’t want you to look at. Nothing but spin and manipulation 100% of the time.

New home sales for September are reported at 10:00 Eastern this morning.

Today’s “Sucker punch to the gut” chart of the day is brought to you by Amazon:

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But there is good news as an unmasked crusader is coming to the rescue – he carries the sovereign money antidote:

I support Bill Still for President and hope that you do to. His campaign can be found at Still2012.com. He needs your financial support as well, so please give generously as you know the support the made for T.V. politicians receive.

I announce my candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination for President of the United States. Now here’s my promise to you; if elected as your President, I will take office on January 20, 2013 – interestingly, that occurs on my 65th birthday. I promise that on that day, I will do three things:

1. I will put an end to government borrowing. No More National Debt! The United States will replace Federal Reserve Notes by re-issuing debt-free U.S. Notes, and gradually pay off the National Debt with them.

2. I will put an end to the ability of commercial banks to control the Quantity of money in our system through what is essentially counterfeiting. This has been a massive fraud on the people of the United States. We, the people, will take back the money power from the big banks and return the American economy to monetary stability and prosperity.

To ensure this system is enforced, I will appoint a Special Prosecutor experienced in matters of fraud to prosecute to the full extent of the law those who have abused our system in the past to serve as an example for the future.

3. I will abolish the Internal Revenue System and the income tax – both personal and corporate — and implement a fair, simple and equitable consumption tax in accordance with the U.S. Constitution. This is how we funded our government for the first 100 years, and we can do it again.