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Michigan game seems to be absolute earliest for a Branden Dawson return

College basketball: Michigan State vs. Michigan

Many people assumed Branden Dawson would attempt to return in time for his favorite game of the year, but a Feb.20 date against Purdue will most likely be too soon for the junior forward.
(Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)

EAST LANSING -- When Michigan State's Branden Dawson broke his right hand after punching a table out of frustration on Jan.23, many people circled the Spartans' Feb. 20 game against Purdue as a possible -- if not likely -- return date for the junior forward.

But it appears that was too optimistic. Dawson's earliest possible return now appears to be the Spartans' Feb. 23 game versus Michigan.

Michigan State forward Branden Dawson has not played since the Spartans' 71-66 win over Indiana on Jan.21.Mike Mulholland | MLive.com

"He gets the pins out of his hand I think around the 20th," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said Tuesday. "And I think at the same time, they'll be x-raying to see (how it has healed). I keep seeing that looking at his knee, he was the fastest healer I've seen to have an injury. Whether it's bones or ligaments, I don' know, but if I'm a betting man I would say he is going to come back as quick as any man in the country.

"I told you the day it happened or the day after, I think this could be a turning point for Branden Dawson, I really do. And we're going to make a negative into a positive. He is on track, but there will be nothing in the next week and a half for sure."

Dawson -- an Indiana native heavily recruited by the Boilermakers -- has often taken the opportunity to remind fans in West Lafayette of what they lost to Izzo, so missing the Purdue game will be especially tough on him.

In his career at Michigan State, Dawson has averaged 9.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. He has never scored fewer than 14 points versus the Boilermakers and averages 15.8 points and seven rebounds in the four games he has played against them.

No. 9 Michigan State (20-4, 9-2) is 2-2 in games without Dawson. The No. 1 concern for the Spartans when he went down was rebounding, although that particular category has not been affected greatly without him, statistically speaking.

Michigan State was averaging 36.6 rebounds in Big Ten games before his injury and is averaging 35 rebounds in Big Ten games without him. The rebounding margin has seen a slight decrease. The Spartans averaged a rebounding margin of plus-4.4 in seven Big Ten games without Dawson and have averaged a rebounding margin of plus-2 since he was sidelined.

The area where his absence has affected the Spartans most has been defensively. The Spartans are giving up an average of 64.2 points per Big Ten game now versus giving up 61.4 points on average in the seven conference game prior to his injury.

"His absence has made us change the way we play the most because we were switching four and we could do so many different things defensively," Izzo said. "He can guard so many different people."

That does not mean that Izzo is willing to say Dawson's absence has affected the Spartans more than the injuries to Keith Appling or Adreian Payne. Each injury has affected the team in different ways.

"Payne’s absence probably hurt us more for Gary (Harris) and for Keith because of his versatility," Izzo said. "God, you can just flip a coin on who hurts you the most. You lose your quarterback and that should be No. 1 on the list. Every one of those guys hurt us in different ways.

"If I had to take overall who is going to affect most people, I would say it is Payne because he can go inside and he can go outside. He can help keep guys off Harris. He can help on the pick-and-pops. When he is back 100 percent, which he is nowhere near, he can guard stretch four men, and he can guard a guard because he can move his feet well enough."