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UAC rains might miss Chennai yet again

The expected rains from the UAC is most probably going to miss Chennai yet again. The wind confluence has moved north and too far away from us to impact. Central AP in Coastal area will see massive intense TS tomorrow.

Think monsoon has reached Bangalore! As Lakshmi says, quite a lot of low level clouds dropping into the city all of a sudden. A treat to watch. IMD will announce the onset in Bangalore today for sure!!

I think we are having better steering pattern than yesterday but only worry factor is lack of moisture so any ts which enters within 70 km radius of chennai definitely gonna weaken like yesterday so better chennai has to wait

REMARKS:
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THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 30-32˚C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100-120 KJ/CM2,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS (20-30) X 10-5 SECOND-1,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT (20-30)X10-5 SECOND-1,
THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT (15-17)X10-5 SECOND-1
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS).
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 20˚N.
THERE IS TROUGH IN WESTERLIES IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION LIES IN PHASE-2 WITH AMPLITUDE > 1 AND IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ABOVE SYNOPTIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 7 JUNE 2015.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072230Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTING THE DEEPENED CONVECTION. TC
01A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH
WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND MODIFY THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUSING TC
01A TO SLOW DOWN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, SLIGHTLY COOLER
SSTS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.

Already the wind direction is SW over chennai skies , but very less speed. We need to have the rains started in Goa and above Goa regions in west coast. Those winds come down heavily and meet the bay-of-bengal streams at chennai latitude ( and then the magic TS’s start).

Hyacinthe formed on January 15, 1980, to the northeast of Mauritius in the southern Indian Ocean

For twelve days, Hyacinthe dropped torrential rainfall on Réunion; nearly all of the island received more than 1 m (3.3 ft) of precipitation. Over a 15 day period from January 14 to January 28, 6,083 mm (239.5 in) of rainfall were recorded at Commerson’s Crater, a volcano

UAC coming to Chennai was delayed. One last hope remains in my heart. I know everyone here hates UAC.
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Starting form Tomorrow and 10th are D-Day for UAC. One last push. It will answer whether UAC rains are real. Then i will my throw away the term UAC from my mind. If it fails Three times in a how can i trust them

UAC coming to Chennai on 10th June. Good chance of rains as it moves down from tomorrow near our N.TN coast. Please wait till 10th before thrashing the UAC.

Sel, i am not a expert like u guys, Based on some steering concept i know – As the system ARB remains stationery our system too will remain in status quo. Only on the system in ARB moves away our system can move down. Thats the link. Any east tilt by the System ARB will further delay the UAC steering down.

yes, it pulling the clouds from bay of bengal.It has an impact on the AP system.The movement of clouds from nagai to south is towards the cyclone Ashobaa.The system near AP is struggling to pull clouds towards it.

080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.

There is no rain warning for any part of the west coast of India since the storm is moving away. But the monsoon remained stuck to its northern limit over south peninsula.

Its Arabian Sea arm is not expected to make any further progress till such time as the cyclone blows over. But the Bay of Bengal arm continues to be active over northeastern states dumping heavy rainfall.