China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

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Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat

The analysts are always ginning up threats. How do you think they justify the fact that we spend more on defense than the next umpteen countries combined. A few years ago they were talking about a resurgent Russia and how much of a threat they were going to be. Mind you the country could not even fuel its navy, but just the same they were supposed to be a growing threat.

China is our competitor, not our enemy. There are no parallels between China and the former USSR. We are economically integrated with China. They are not going to go to war with us. Hell, visit the country, they like us.

First you tell me that all "serious analysts" see China as no threat at all, now you say they're playing with the numbers to justify hefty budgets. I really think you should take an honest look at THE INCREASE in Chinas spending in the last decade, then you might be breathing the same air as those compiling the anual Pentagon reports on China to congress.

Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha

So because they have a different form of government, that makes them a potential enemy. I get what your saying, but when you boil it down, doesn't it sound petty?

I think it's actually extremely fundamental. Their form of government is what makes them aggressive and untrustworthy. You can ascribe a variety of reasons for this that range from game theory analysis of decision making matrices to foreign policy inertia and feedback, and on. Regardless it is no coincidence that established and legitimate democracies do not fight each. If China were a democracy we would still have problems but the threat would be dramatically diminished and our posture would be significantly different.

Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat

Is it any different than what we have one around our own country. It is certainly not like they are asserting Manifest Destiny over their whole hemisphere or anything. I am not saying they are not going to be provocative from time to time, or flex their muscles in the region from time to time, but I don't believe it will ever lead to any sort of real conflict at all. We are simply too economically integrated for that to happen. Name any decent sized western company and they have operations in China. Any decent sized Chinese company has operations over here. In past large conflicts between great powers you simply did not have that kind of economic "globalism" integration. In 1914, Germany did not have large numbers of factories in Britain. In 1940, Japan did not have corporate offices all over the United States. At no time in the Cold War did we have any real economic integration with the USSR.

Before World War 1, there was a great deal of economic integration between the major European powers. It's part of the reason that many on both sides didn't believe such a thing was possible. Didn't really work out for them did it? Again, you think that a war has to start by each side being intelligent and no mistakes being made. All it takes is for China to assert itself in contested areas (we have no such thing btw) to much, or us to push back to hard... either side to underestimate their intentions, and war could erupt at a moment's notice. I also went over these points in a previous post in more detail, so I'll let you reference those instead.

Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat

Is it any different than what we have one around our own country. It is certainly not like they are asserting Manifest Destiny over their whole hemisphere or anything. I am not saying they are not going to be provocative from time to time, or flex their muscles in the region from time to time, but I don't believe it will ever lead to any sort of real conflict at all. We are simply too economically integrated for that to happen. Name any decent sized western company and they have operations in China. Any decent sized Chinese company has operations over here. In past large conflicts between great powers you simply did not have that kind of economic "globalism" integration. In 1914, Germany did not have large numbers of factories in Britain. In 1940, Japan did not have corporate offices all over the United States. At no time in the Cold War did we have any real economic integration with the USSR.

That works both ways you know. But then it didn't stop the US from flexing its big muscle declaring that it was positioning 60% of its Pentagon assets in the WestPac, did it?

Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Originally Posted by Sherman123

I think it's actually extremely fundamental. Their form of government is what makes them aggressive and untrustworthy. You can ascribe a variety of reasons for this that range from game theory analysis of decision making matrices to foreign policy inertia and feedback, and on. Regardless it is no coincidence that established and legitimate democracies do not fight each. If China were a democracy we would still have problems but the threat would be dramatically diminished and our posture would be significantly different.

And back during the Cold War I got that, as the USSR was constantly exporting their form of government around the world and trying to destabilize regimes and so on and so forth. But what national interests would we have for getting involved in a regional conflict over, let's say the East China Sea, between Japan and China? I agree that China doesn't want war with us, but they do want some of these areas that contain energy resources that they desperately need.