Third Rotation

The Mets’ hopes for 2017 rest in large part on their starting pitching staff. Is this quintet a major strength which can carry the team? Or do various health and effectiveness concerns place them somewhere short of that status? Let’s take a look at the third rotation through the Mets’ (hopefully) fab five and note what we’ve seen.

What I saw

Noah Syndergaard

Much like his in first two starts, Syndergaard’s velocity and fastball command were good but not at their best. He didn’t look dominant, but the Marlins didn’t hit him hard either. He threw more two-seamers than usual, with great movement but poor location (the pitch to the glove side consistently ran back over the middle). Three great signs: a 100 mph fastball up and in to put away Christian Yelich; a slow motion clip of his motion in which his arm is not nearly as late as it used to be; and the fact that the Marlins only attempted one stolen base. Hopefully the torn fingernails that forced Noah from the game were a one-time concern.

Jacob deGrom

I didn’t see the familiar deGrom motion. He was staying taller through his delivery, possibly getting less extension, and producing less obvious run on his fastball. After a few yanked pitches to the glove side, a few bad breaking balls, and an atypical reliance on two-seamers, I was pessimistic about Jacob’s outing. Then he got angry and established an absolutely dominant groove, striking out 13, many of those on fastballs.

It looked like deGrom was headed for his first win until Collins left in a gassed Fernando Salas to face Yelich as the tying run and Yelich hit one into the upper deck.

Matt Harvey

Harvey had great life on his fastball, and mostly commanded it well at 94-95 mph. His slider had good tilt and depth. He mixed in a few good curves, but not many, and his change-up wasn’t a major factor (he got some up early and may have decided to stay away from it). Matt arguably faced more adversity in this start than his previous ones, and it was nice to see him come through this test without the sort of collapse that became routine in 2016. His command did look a bit worse with men on, but it wasn’t anything catastrophic.

Zack Wheeler

I didn’t see this one live, but all the plays I saw with Zack on the mound in the condensed game video clip seemed to come on 3-2 pitches. Wheeler’s pitch count reached 86 through 4 innings. Unwelcome shades of 2014.

Robert Gsellman

Gsellman repeatedly froze lefties with the Bartolo Colon come-back two-seamer to the inside corner. He also snapped off some sharp curveballs. Robert didn’t throw quite enough strikes with his secondary pitches to keep hitters off the fastball – his slider in particular was mostly in the dirt – but he was still effective, and looked strong through 7 innings and 98 pitches.

What did you see?

David Berg has been following the Mets since 1990, and counts himself as a
"die hard fan" -- the agonies have been numerous and arduous, but he's
still watching every game he can, determined to "earn" the satisfaction
when the Mets eventually win it all. In his non-spare time, David is a
designer of graphics, web sites, and games. See his work at Shrike Design

I would like to see one rotation where everyone throws at least 7. Will we ever see that?

argonbunniesApril 22, 2017 at 1:23 pm

Same here, Dave. I don’t think the Mets’ bullpen is terrible, but it’s certainly not good enough to pitch guys over and over with no safety nets for the nights when they don’t have it.

Hard for me to imagine all 5 starters doing 7+, though. I’m guessing Wheeler’s pulled that off maybe 3 times in 48 career starts? (Looking it up now… okay, it’s 5 in 52, including 3 in the last 44.) With the Mets’ best starters being strikeout pitchers and none of them among the league’s most durable, I they’re unlikely to get through 7 on pitch counts the team can stomach, at least not on average nights. On good nights, sure.

So for a full turn of 7+, we just need good games by our top 3, a great game from Wheeler, and Gsellman’s sinker to be sinking and those grounders finding gloves. What are the chances of all 5 of those panning out? My statistics brain doesn’t like those odds.