Chris Grayling announces the launch of a further consultation in the Airports National Policy Statement process, later this year

Date added: September 8, 2017

Transport Minister, Chris Grayling, has announced that there will be a further short period of consultation on the Airports National Policy Statement (NPS), about a Heathrow 3rd runway. The date of the consultation is not known, but it will be this year. The initial consultation on the NPS was between 2 February and 25 May this year. Some 70,000 responses were received, which the DfT is plodding through. Now there is further evidence on air pollution and the DfT feels – rightly – that it necessary to consult on this. There is also more evidence on air travel demand forecasts, which the DfT had said it would release months ago, but has not yet done so. Grayling says the new consultation is partly as documents could not be publicised during the purdah period in the run-up to the June election (that was disastrous for the Tories). In his statement Grayling says “This government remains committed to realising the benefits that airport expansion could bring, [note, could not would] and I can confirm that we do not expect this additional period of consultation to impact on the timetable for parliamentary scrutiny of the NPS.” The Times considers this added need to consult, and the potential embarrassment of the air travel forecasts, could put the Heathrow process back by a year – with the vote on the NPS in the Commons not taking place till 2019. But this is merely speculation.
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Chris Grayling announces the launch of a further consultation in the Airports National Policy Statement process, later this year.

7th September 2017 (DfT website)

In my statement on 13 July this year, I said I would set out the next steps of the draft Airports National Policy Statement (NPS) process following the summer recess.

The government consulted on a draft Airports NPS between 2 February and 25 May this year.

We received over 70,000 responses, and work to analyse them is ongoing. I would like to thank everyone who took the time to feed in their views.

In the consultation document, my department was clear that further work was underway to update the evidence base, including revised aviation demand forecasts and the government’s final air quality plan. It was intended these documents would be presented for consideration during the initial consultation, but the timing of the general election meant this was not possible.

I am therefore confirming that there is a need to conduct a short period of further consultation to allow this updated evidence to be taken into account. This further consultation will focus mainly on the specific elements of the NPS affected, and is expected to begin later this year.
In my statement in July I said that the timing of the election — in particular the need to re-start the Select Committee process — meant we now expect to lay any final NPS in the first half of 2018 for a vote in the House of Commons. This government remains committed to realising the benefits that airport expansion could bring, and I can confirm that we do not expect this additional period of consultation to impact on the timetable for parliamentary scrutiny of the NPS.

Third Heathrow runway ‘faces further year of delay’

A final decision on Heathrow expansion could be delayed for another year, it was claimed yesterday, after the government ordered new analysis of passenger demand for a third runway.

Ministers said that a “short period” of consultation would be staged this autumn to allow the public to consider new evidence on Heathrow.

The government will publish updated forecasts outlining the likely scale of passenger demand for air travel over the next three decades. It follows claims that figures used to promote Heathrow over its rival Gatwick were flawed because they exaggerated the importance of the west London hub.

Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, denied the process would lead to any further delay. He has previously committed to publishing the full national policy statement (NPS) — the legislation that clears the way for a third runway — in the first half of next year.

However, aviation sources said there was a strong possibility the latest consultation would delay a Commons vote, possibly until mid-2019. That could have a bearing on plans to build the runway by 2025, although this was denied by the airport.

Sir Howard Davies, chairman of the airports commission, made an overwhelming recommendation in favour of the scheme more than two years ago.

The government said last October it was accepting Sir Howard’s recommendation. It published a draft NPS in February and received more than 70,000 responses to a consultation.

Data around pollution levels at Heathrow is also being updated to take account of the government’s recently published air quality plan.

Mr Grayling said: “There is a need to conduct a short period of further consultation to allow this updated evidence to be taken into account.”

“Heathrow is in for a bumpy landing”

[The Times has been hugely in favour of a Gatwick 2nd runway, and against a Heathrow 3rd runway for years, and continues to express this view …]

Few things in life are as exciting as government consultations. So, little wonder the one on the draft Airports National Policy Statement has proved such a hit. It’s produced more than 70,000 responses. So, here’s some cracking news. They can all write in again — because the forecasts are wrong.

No, Chris Grayling didn’t put it quite like that. But the transport secretary’s latest “update” on the planned £17.6 billion third runway at Heathrow certainly invites the question. Thanks to his boss calling her daft election, he was unable to include key info in the 16-week public consultation that ended in May. So, he’s now proposing a “short period of further consultation”.

And, what is this info, you ask? Oh, the “revised aviation demand forecasts and the government’s final air quality plan”. Or, to put it another way, the two main issues, alongside noise pollution, that determine whether Heathrow really is a better option than a £7.1 billion second runway at Gatwick.

Take the traffic forecasts. The government’s decision — and the consultation — was based on the ones in the Airports Commission report. But even Mr Grayling would admit they are hopelessly wrong. Sir Howard Davies’s commission had 2013 figures to go on, but for bizarre reasons used a “model base year” of 2008 to extrapolate trends.

The upshot? Laughable estimates for Gatwick, not least because the commission’s oil price forecast was far too high. So, it missed the effect of cheap oil on demand for low-fare airlines, such as Easyjet — Gatwick’s biggest customer. The result? It reckoned the airport wouldn’t handle 46 million passengers a year until 2040. In fact, it’s almost there already: 45.2 million in the 12 months to August. Not only that: it claimed that, even with two runways, Gatwick wouldn’t have 50 long-haul flights a year until 2050. It already has 60.

From air traffic forecasts follow all sorts of other issues, not least the projects’ economic benefits. Even on the old figures, the difference is tiny once you adjust for transfer traffic, which brings no real benefits to the UK. On updated forecasts, Gatwick may well be in front.

And on air quality, there’s only one winner. Heathrow’s in breach of EU nitrogen dioxide limits, mainly because of the cars on the M4, M25 and M40. Moreover, it’s hard to spot anything in the new air quality plan that will solve that before the runway’s planned 2025 opening.

In short, the new information, when it’s published, could radically change the case for and against Heathrow. Mr Grayling insists that the new period of consultation, due to “begin later this year”, won’t change the timetable for the final national policy statement — and an MPs’ vote in the first half of 2018.

But people need time to respond: a point that must be made by Sir Jeremy Sullivan, the former lord justice of appeal, whose job it is to ensure the consultation is “fair and thorough”. Mr Grayling’s latest “update” may have bigger ramifications than he thinks.

UK government seeks further consultation on Heathrow’s third runway

A statement today from the Secretary of State for Transport, Chris Grayling, on the extension came as the government published Sir Jeremy Sullivan’s interim report on consultation on the draft Airports National Policy Statement (NPS).

The draft NPS sets out the reasons for the choice of Heathrow rather than a rival runway proposal at Gatwick airport, a decision announced in October 2016 by the government . The draft also includes the “mitigation and compensation measures” the government expects the promoter to put in place if planning permission is granted.

Consultation closed on May 25 this year, with more than 70,000 responses, reflecting the scale of the regulatory obstacles that approval for a third runway at Heathrow has to overcome before construction can begin.

In his statement today, Grayling said: “In the consultation document, my department was clear that further work was underway to update the evidence base, including revised aviation demand forecasts and the government’s final air quality plan. It was intended these documents would be presented for consideration during the initial consultation, but the timing of the general election meant this was not possible.

“I am therefore confirming that there is a need to conduct a short period of further consultation to allow this updated evidence to be taken into account. This further consultation will focus mainly on the specific elements of the NPS affected, and is expected to begin later this year.”

The UK General Election on June 8 this year pushed the reset button on Parliament’s Select Committee process, meaning that any final NPS would be delayed until the first half of 2018 for a vote in the House of Commons.

The minister said that the Conservatige government “remains committed to realising the benefits that airport expansion could bring, and I can confirm that we do not expect this additional period of consultation to impact on the timetable for parliamentary scrutiny of the NPS”.

Immediate industry reaction described the announcement as unfortunate but not a surprise.

Duncan Field, UK head of planning, global law firm, Norton Rose Fulbright, said:“The need for a short period of further consultation on the draft Airports NPS announced today by Chris Grayling, is unfortunate but does not come as a surprise.

“The importance of air quality to the future expansion of Heathrow made it almost inevitable that as soon as the Government published its Air Quality Plan, the draft NPS would have to be reviewed again.

“However, if it is to avoid a third round of consultation, the Government must not only allow sufficient time for responses but also take this opportunity to set out much more clearly the relevance of the draft NPS to other airports in the UK and whether, for example, we will see a separate overarching Airports NPS as a product of the government’s ongoing review of the Aviation Policy Framework.”

There are other issues on which the Government and Heathrow have serious problems. One is that there is no agreement on how much of the cost of necessary surface transport infrastructure outside the airport Heathrow will pay for.

There is the problem of the huge business risk for the funders of the runway, if things do not go smoothly and this would leave a potentially massive bill for the UK taxpayers if Heathrow is unable to finance the project.

And there is a current consultation on UK aviation policy in general – which should have come before, not after, the policy on one part of it – a new south east runway. Serious case of cart before horse.

The immense problem of noise from another 250,000 annual flights over densely populated areas around London and its suburbs are virtually insoluble. The problem of the added carbon emissions cannot be solved, and air pollution is another issue that cannot be remedied to the extent that people living around Heathrow will be able to breathe air of a sufficient quality for good health.