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Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by Daddy-YO

The swab test is the PCR test; it takes 2-3 days to get results. It strips the corona shell, then replicates sufficient viral RNA by polymerase chain reaction to do an assay. Takes time.
The 15 min point-of-care test is a blood test that checks for specific antibodies in the blood.

The 'peak' is when the rate at which people die levels off. People keep dying but it takes longer to increase the total number by, say, 100, or 500. I recall them saying America's death toll could reach 100,000. To stay under that is victory.

I too watched the Rose Garden tete-a-tete. Trump's a brawler. Sleepy Joe's an inflatable Bozo put on the ticket so Dems that vote straight party line can keep their reps in Congress. Had the ticket been headed by a socialist/communist that lot would have had apoplexy.

Normally 78 citizens die in Nicaragua every day. My guess is that this flu will be only a slight perturbation. Not that front page news headlines won't make it seem like a major event. Got to keep up with the liberal press.

One important thing about the new test: It might not catch early sickness,, the immune system has to react and create those anti bodies. But it's going to give us a pretty good idea of who has already HAD the virus, and is nominally immune. As that number increases, the remaining available hosts for the virus to infect decreases. And the odds start improving, in terms of getting everyone back to work.

If a person can point to his antibody test and say: "I'm immune" , that plus $5 should get him a beer at Chicago Pizza. We'll all be walking about with gaffas around our necks in two months,, with a bright yellow I for immune.

From my personal experience, and numerous recovery cases I've reviewed, you are fine until your chest starts tightening and you have trouble breathing. At that point you need help, and fast. And this corresponds to the reading I've done about the Spanish flu: Numerous people reported "You were either dead or recovered in a week".
Another important point: On the Worldometer site, there is a very important number in the far right column, the date of first reported case. As you scroll down the list from most cases to fewest,, the dates change from January to March. The virus takes some time to gain a foothold. Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala are showing up on the Worldometer list now.

I see GM making ventilators for the world shortly. I just don't know if we are going to be able to handle Trump's
"I told you so" ,,,
and especially for another four years.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

FINALLY Trump managed to push this past Dr. Fauci who constantly repeated, "Clinical trials are necessary to prove its value here." plus "only been a few, very small anecdotal studies" BS - So Korea has been using it extensively; & China later; & I suspect, Germany.

FDA authorizes widespread use of unproven drugs to treat coronavirus, saying possible benefit outweighs risk____Millions of doses of the anti-malarial drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine will be distributed to hospitals across the country to try to slow the disease in seriously ill patients.
The Food and Drug Administration has given emergency approval to a Trump administration plan to distribute millions of doses of anti-malarial drugs to hospitals across the country, saying it is worth the risk of trying unproven treatments to slow the progression of the disease in seriously ill coronavirus patients.3/30/20 WaPo

Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate

One important thing about the new test: It might not catch early sickness,, the immune system has to react and create those anti bodies. But it's going to give us a pretty good idea of who has already HAD the virus, and is nominally immune.

The serious value of the point-of-care blood test is to identify carriers who are actively shedding the virus into the general population. It is true that a negative result is not definitive. But a positive one means on the spot isolation of a carrier who could infect thousand in 3 days, as did patient zero in NYC. So Korea relied heavily on this test, as did China in later stages. Test efficacy is reduced with time after recovery from infection; antibody concentration in the blood diminishes.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Any doubts about the value of chloroquine against Covid-19? Watch this video.
(Note: Here I say chloroquine throughout when its homolog hydroxychloroquine is as effective and some say safer.)
__22 Aug 2005, Virology Journal, study showed chloroquine 100% effective against SARS, also a coronavirus
__17 Feb 2020, Xinhua.net, Antimalarial drug confirmed effective against Covid-19, conclusion: chloroquine should be included in the official treatments
__Immediately after this publication, South Korea included chloroquine in its coronavirus guidelines
__10 Mar 2020 Raymond James & assoc. US Research, Biotechnology, published, “If it doesn’t benefit a stock, does it even exist?”, referring to all patents on chloroquine being long expired
__It was used in China and South Korea to turn this red tide. It is currently being used in 70 hospitals in Australia, which, despite having a very large Chinese population, has had only 18 deaths, 0.7/MM. The Indian Council of Medical Research has directed its Nat’l Task Force for Covid-19 to recommend chloroquine for the treatment of high risk populations.
__The pandemic is exponential: the first 100,000 cases took 90 days, to 200,000 in 12 d, to 300,000 in 4 d, to 400,000 in 2.5 d, and 6 d later now more than 700,000 cases worldwide.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by el duende grande

The CDC has botched this from day one. Next pandemic we should contract out with some smart folks from Taiwan or Korea.

The USA is politically divided, at every level of governance. It's called 'freedom'. Part of the problem with the coronavirus is that it built slowly and only later took off like a rocket. Sure there were voices who warned us of the coming threat, but they got lost in the cacophony. It took the shock of a 9/11 to unite us; speaking of lockdowns, no flights, followed by carte blanche governance.

The Koreas and Taiwan (= China, ask any Han, it's essentially a racial identity) are authoritarian/dictatorial governments, top down, no questions, obey. They acted intelligently, not being ruled by a tempest of political emotions.

In the USA political leaders are the butt of jokes; knock 'em down a peg or two, they're human too. Not divine as some Asian cultures still view their rulers, and as their rulers expect to be viewed.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

It is not just freedom, it is also diversity. Multination states crash, it is just a matter of time. Taiwan and S. Korea share some dna and culture with China, but are functioning prosperous democracies, both blessed with little diversity. Japan, too, is doing well, with a respectful united people. Even Germany, shaky as it is as a nation, has pushed testing and has good hospitals. They are even at the point of certifying people who have recovered and are immune so that they can get back to life. Kinda like carrying your yellow fever card.

911 was theatre. What did it unite? A desire to pillage Iraq and set up Afghanistan to be betrayed at a later date? While our existential enemies, China being #1, got stronger.

Another thing, look at the first check in the mail. 1/4 goes to the peeple, 1/4 goes to big business, a bunch goes to small business, and the rest goes to local government and misc. And they are already talking about a 2nd and 3rd check.

An election year is certainly a bad year to have a pandemic, but here we are. Lotta conspiracy theories out there but when it comes to America's public health institutions my opinion is incompetence. It would be better if it had been a conspiracy because people could be tried and punished. How do you punish stupid?

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by el duende grande

An election year is certainly a bad year to have a pandemic, but here we are. Lotta conspiracy theories out there but when it comes to America's public health institutions my opinion is incompetence. It would be better if it had been a conspiracy because people could be tried and punished. How do you punish stupid?

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

The total of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide has reached 1.1 million. We all realize that that number is a gross underestimate of those infected with CoV-19. However, the 58,400 who have died from this virus is probably close to correct.

How many people died (of all causes) worldwide during this period? 162,000 Earthlings die every day (there are 2.4X births) on average out of a population of 7.8 billion. Figuring this pandemic has been happening for 2 months + 10 days, 0.5% of people who died on Earth during this time died from CoV-19 (+ &c.).

Let's keep this in perspective. Half of one percent of the people who died over the past couple months died from this pandemic that consumes the world press and will reshape global economies and world politics. And 0.5% is as high as it is cause it's going near wild in Europe & America.

Or do you think this pandemic will skew the statistics, will alter in a significant way the number of people who die daily around the world normally, 162,000/day (59 million/yr)? I doubt it.

Few know WTF they're doing. We're all at the bottom of a learning curve about CoV-19.
What has been clear is that this pandemic has shown a night-to-day difference in effectiveness of 'free' democracies versus authoritarian governments to control this unknown. 'They' are much more capable of bringing it under control where it might otherwise go wild. And, IMO, it's not simply that they lie and we're honest. And mind you, that's setting aside the apparent fact that 0.5% is really not that big a deal.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

So our Folksy Primer of Ontario gave his speech this aft - Model forecast is 300,000 cases with 3,000 to 15,000 death depending what we do (Stay inside, procure new ventilators, convert other facilities to ventilator etc etc) over the next 18 to 24 month. Estimates 1600 deaths by end the month. Ventilators _should_ be sufficient, but just by the skin of our teeth.

He did not present the data , that was done by public health top bureaucrats. Hour and 20 min data presentation the 3 of them did (last 40 min was questions) and they could answer questions to 3 levels of depth.

The extrapolation with no action is 100,000 deaths within 18 to 24 months if no closures or social distancing done in March/April. Ontario is 14 Million people.

Daniel's (Chilo's brother) Ex did test positive 15 days ago. She is almost out of quarantine.

Funny one - A drug dealer was caught and charged with the regular stuff _and_ the $5000 charge for running a non essential business. Gotta love that.

Detroit appears to be the next hot spot - A request to Windsor healthcare workers was made - Many may go to help.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

My estimate for the US is 110-220,000 dead unless something seriously goes wrong.
The greatest long term damage may come from the November election.

Note: Taiwan and Germany are not dictatorships. Hong Kong and Singapore are politically betwixt and between. Japan is not a dictatorship. The US just blew its public health responsibility and 3 months later is playing catch up.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Well I got of things I need to say, trying to wrap my head around it all. Am not feeling at all optimistic about the current situation in the world. Examining my own mortality. I guess that is a given and could be repeated by just about anyone anywhere right about now. To be more specific, and selfish, I got to talk about the facts and as how they pertain to being in Nicaragua right now.

The government here is doing nothing to protect the populace, either out of ignorance or indifference. It is probably the latter, as the regime has quarantined their 1st family for weeks now while demanding the common folk to participate in mass gatherings, the most recent being yesterday to inaugurate a newly built bridge. Dictator Daniel Ortega pulled his grandchildren out of their exclusive private academy weeks ago and has since mandated attendance in public schools by those attendees, to the point where police have been sent to harass parents who withdrew their own children. The Pope has weighed in on the subject of leaders who do not protect their subjects in the face of Covid-10 and has employed the phrase "Viral Genocide" https://www.catholicweekly.com.au/po...iral-genocide/

Healthcare on a good day in Nicaragua sucks. Forget ventilators, lives that could normally be saved with less invasive treatments will be lost here. In a sad forecast of the future here, a conversation the other day brought up the possibility of bodies in the streets. This is happening today, in Ecuador, another poor country that has a GDP 3X greater than Nicaragua. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/a...ntl/index.html

The government must be hiding the truth or more likely, choosing not to look for it, in a desperate effort to remain the all-powerful in a Wizard of Oz type fashion. The main powerhouse in the dictatorship currently is Rosario Murillo, vice president of Nicaragua, wife of Daniel Ortega and mother to his 7 children. She is known to confide in Tarot cards more than doctors or scientists. As of this date, she assures those that will listen to her daily radio show that the 5 Corona cases in Nicaragua are all imported and that one death that occurred was likely spurred on because the patient had AIDS. Against all known logic, she claims there is no local, domestic transmission thereby making this country the only place in the world where the virus acts in this way, Costa Rica, 1st country to the South, as of this writing, claims 300+ cases and 30 deaths while Honduras to the north has 250 cases and 20 plus deaths and again Nicaragua continues to hold at 5 cases and 1 death, for the past 3 weeks.

The nature of life here make the propagation of the virus inevitable. We live in neighborhoods too close to one another. It is near impossible to leave or enter our house and maintain a 6 foot distance from your neighbors. Most people, including ourselves, use public transportation in the form of taxis, microbuses and repurposed school buses. These transports are essentially petri dishes on wheels. Even the rural areas are subject to the virus as every hour there are buses from Managua coming and going and assuring that 100-200 people are interchanged each hour.

Through no fault of their own, many Nicaraguans are ignorant due to the scant education that has been affected by dictators, revolution, social upheaval, poverty and indifferent oligarchs. Point being while undoubtedly the population is scared right now, a discussion of the mechanics of transmission is a lost cause. A smattering of people in the street are utilizing face masks (the efficacy being debated in the 1st world right now) but even if they were the right type (they aren't) and even if they were being used the correct way (they aren't) as they are being hawked in the market for 20 cords a piece for a Nicaraguan who may be lucky enough to make 300 cords a day using 7% of his daily wage on masks isn't sustainable.

The most succinct discussion I have read was an interview with the one person most uniquely qualified to discuss how this pandemic will affect Nicaragua. He is an epidemiologist born in Managua and has served in the public health field worldwide along with various previous Nicaraguan administrations and other pandemics. It is a great read and I encourage you to read it:

And look, I am not trying to piss anyone off, if you take exception to my verbiage IDGAF. I know I over explained some stuff if you are a real ex-pat but wasn't sure where I was gonna send this while writing it. I am currently in Masaya. I have been in country for 15 years, I got a Nica wife and a kid with her that speaks more Spanish than English. I might be white and have blue eyes but I, for better or worse, am "Mas Nica cada dia." Felt the need to reach out to someone who could relate and you dear reader are today's victim. Let's hear how your world is spinning.

Last edited by ejb3; 04-04-2020 at 07:26 AM.
Reason: bad math

political correctedness has run wild and the outrage police are everywhere

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by ejb3

Costa Rica, 1st country to the South, as of this writing, claims 300+ cases and 30 deaths while Honduras to the north has 250 cases and 20 plus deaths and again Nicaragua continues to hold at 5 cases and 1 death, for the past 3 weeks.

Hey ejb3, just a note. At the moment CR has identified a total of 416 cases, of which only 2 have died and 13 are in intensive care. They’ve been very diligent about following all who had had contact with those infected. They also entertain many more well-traveled (rich) foreigners (virus carriers) than Nicaragua. To date, 15 of Honduras’ total of 264 cases have died. In El Salvador, 3 dead of 56 total ID’d; for Guatemala, 2 of 57 cases died. In Panama with its heavy international traffic, they report 41 dead of 1673 total cases. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It’s true Nicaragua has no handle on the number infected; they honestly can’t afford the definitive PCR analysis. But no country in the world knows how many of their people have actually been infected; even South Korea hasn’t tested everyone.

I feel good about being in Nicaragua in this time of the coronavirus pandemic. I bought all the meds I need - not available without Rx in US - to defeat any CoV-19 infection, which I consider to be inevitable damn near everywhere in the world. I would never go to a hospital for this. It’d be nonsense to go where the sickest covid-19 patients are gathered. Besides, hospital care here & there sucks IMO, except for the richest.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

The cuve from Italy appears to be flattening,, that from the US is going straight up. The curves are available on Woroldometer.com
The onset dates are interesting Italy's curve started to rise a week before us. What a difference a week makes. Soon it will be a day.

I've given up trying to compare cases and deaths, but deaths per million/ population seems like a number which could be fairly looked at and compared. We know what the population of a country is,, and we know the death count. Based on this number, the US has done relatively well. But, the pandemic onset in any given country is going to drive this number too. Number of new cases are going to lead deaths by a week or ten days.

Example,, deaths per million in the US is 25, in Spain and Italy,, 10 X that number. Does that reflect better medical care,, and perhaps access to a ventilator, or are we simply newer to the onset ? According to the charts above, Italy was only a week ahead of us. Germany does better at 17/million,, the UK, not so great, at 64. France is double that at 116. The percentage numbers from the European numbers, based on deaths to cases, are really scary. But, we know the number of reported cases is way off. Demographics are not talked about either: Who are the people who are dying? We know that they are predominantly older,, OK,, and those with underlying complications and compromised immune systems ??? Inquiring minds would like to know. Is this you and me,, or is it homeless intravenous drug users suffering from HIV ?

It's fair to ask,, where is this going,, and will it come back ? Someone knows the answer to the first question, but is reluctant to tell us. The answer to the second,, will probably depend on a vaccine. The 1918 influenza did two thirds of its killing the second time around in the US. People sickened in the first wave were immune to the devastation wrought by the second. Will countries with small numbers now be able to maintain those infection rates,, or will they be eventually hammered when we get back to business ?

Finally,, an article from CNN this morning raised the possibility of "Certificates of Immunity". This could put a LOT of people back to work. Even if you multiply the reported cases in the US by 100 to come up with 30 million real infections, who will eventually be immune if they survive,, there are still a lot of people who will have to get through this in some fashion. 300 million, as a matter of fact.

The real advantage to this Immunity Badge however,, is I could go by Chicago Pizza again for an afternoon beer.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate

The cuve from Italy appears to be flattening,, that from the US is going straight up. The curves are available on Woroldometer.com
The onset dates are interesting Italy's curve started to rise a week before us. What a difference a week makes. Soon it will be a day.

The log of total deaths vs time shows the flattering most clearly. Since testing was spotty, the number of cases is a poor indicator. Hopefully we'll have learned a thing or two before that week is made up.

Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate

I've given up trying to compare cases and deaths, but deaths per million/ population seems like a number which could be fairly looked at and compared.

This is what I've been working on. I'll start another thread, if I can drag over some of your comments.

Pirate, you didn't share much detail on your symptoms or any on your treatment. I wonder about you confidence that you're now immune.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Pirate, you didn't share much detail on your symptoms or any on your treatment. I wonder about you confidence that you're now immune.

I posted the symptoms somewhere here on another thread. Most report a fever but not really high, Mine never went over 101. Older people tend NOT to run the fevers of children. I knew I had something unique when my muscles began aching, painfully, and the fever started. I lost maybe three days where I was delirious, and in discomfort. My head ached intensely. I controlled it with muscle relaxers and a small amount of Norco. I lost my appetite and sense of smell. When I finally got past the muscle part,, I started to cough, a dry hacking cough. No phlegm, in fact,, no runny nose or anything of a gastro nature generally associated with the flu. The cough made my throat sore, but the sore throat was only a couple of days. The cough persisted a bit,, but not seriously. I had difficulty stringing thoughts together, and slept (probably thanks to the Noro and muscle relaxer) --- a lot.

It started with a few days of genera malaise. We had both been pretty lackadaisical about taking precautions, Shelley was still working, we were meeting frequently after work for a beer. At that time Arizona was reporting literally nothing of note,, a dozen cases, and a death or two. The University of Arizona is in Tucson, big school,, and a lot of students do year's abroad in Italy and Spain. I tried to identify where I had picked it up,, originally thought at an eye doctor where I taken Sebastian. But,, I also had a marathon dental experience in Nogales, and rode a crowded shuttle down and back at about the same time. As I said,, the corona virus was such as non-issue here just three weeks ago. Indeed,, you still rarely see people in masks and gloves.

Shelley followed me possibly five days later. She is still sleeping a lot,, and still coughs a bit. Her sense of smell is coming back too,, but her appetite is spotty. For her,, it could not have worked out better. Her surgery center shut down and furloughed her. She has the time and lack of pressure to recuperate completely. They are talking about re-opening May 15,,, maybe, but their surgeries are almost 100% elective, and there are supposedly no more elective surgeries.

Except for the ringing in my ears and difficulty lifting my arms over my shoulders (I can but it hurts),, I seem to be fine. Cough is gone completely. I sleep well at night,, no longer take any medication. I sleep much longer than I have in the past,, generally until 7AM.

The border at Nogales has not closed,, the 24-7 parade of semi's hauling fruit and vegetables from Sonora to Nogales, AZ has not diminished.

AeroMexico will fly me from Hermosillo, about 200 miles south of Nogales, to Managua for $520 RT. That's premier class with a 40 # carry on and two checked bags. Free drinks and snacks. Change my return flight if I need to, free. The bus to Hermosillo, depending on whether I get it in Tucson or Nogales, is either $40 or $15. It's actually cheaper to fly from Hermosillo through Mex City than it is to fly from Mexico City directly to Managua.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate

a fever ... never went over 101. Older people tend NOT to run the fevers of children. I knew I had something unique when my muscles began aching, painfully, and the fever started. I lost maybe three days where I was delirious, and in discomfort. My head ached intensely. I controlled it with muscle relaxers and a small amount of Norco. I lost my appetite and sense of smell. When I finally got past the muscle part,, I started to cough, a dry hacking cough.
Except for the ringing in my ears and difficulty lifting my arms over my shoulders (I can but it hurts),, I seem to be fine. Cough is gone completely. I sleep well at night,, no longer take any medication. I sleep much longer than I have in the past,, generally until 7AM.

Thanks for the details Pirate. I specifically wondered about the fever, since that's clearly how they were screening people in the early efforts to isolate the infected. It surprises me that you didn't take an antiviral, like chloroquine & zinc, but just treated the symptoms and rode it out bareback. The arms-over-shoulders pain must be a by-product of your relaxant and a prolonged awkward position, not cov-19, I imagine. I'm glad you're well, Iron Man, and hope Shelley pulls thru without a hitch too.

Feliz viaje to the farm you said your kids didn't want to inherit, but that many a Nica would die for.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Costa Rica has over 400 cases and Nica has 6, I been called crazy before and guess I am, but I have a hard time working those numbers., especially when some 250k or so Nicas are in CR and regularly travel back and forth.

‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
Ernie K Doe

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Originally Posted by cookshow

Costa Rica has over 400 cases and Nica has 6, I been called crazy before and guess I am, but I have a hard time working those numbers., especially when some 250k or so Nicas are in CR and regularly travel back and forth.

Like China they are intentionally playing with the numbers for some yet to be revealed reason - A quick glance over to Ecuador shows a similar trait where they will not (or can not) count the infected and dead properly.

Various news outlets are seeming to extrapolate 45,000 to 50,000 dead in Wuhan based on 24/7 operation of the regions crematorums (84 of them)

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Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Rate of case increase isn't equivalent to the rate of test increase. The number of cases will never be known, only the number of positive tests. And tests are dependent on production, administering, and getting people to take them.

Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

Our chief medical officer of health (Province) said about the same - Calculating infection rate is subject to interpretation (Tests done, home stay, hospitalisation, ICU etc etc) Death is a hard number. Eventual the other numbers will be harmonised, but the hard number is deaths.

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Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??