Are the SAG Awards a predictor of Oscar glory?

When last we spoke, the discussion was over whether Jean Dujardin’s surprise (to some) win as Lead Actor for The Artist at the Screen Actors Guild Awards would waylay the onward charge of George Clooney (The Descendants) for the Oscar. So I decided to do a little research and see what kind of impact, if any, the SAG has on the granddaddy of all movie awards.

And the Best Lead Actor award has the best track record of matching the eventual Oscar winner, out of all five SAG categories. In its 17 previous outings, The Actor has only been given out four times to someone who didn’t go home with the Oscar: Benecio del Toro in Traffic; Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind; Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York; and Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. Mind you, those happened in four straight years, 2000-2003; the past seven years have matched perfectly. Plus, del Toro was placed in the Supporting Actor slot for the Oscars … and won.

Lead Actress has almost as good a track record: 12 out of 17. Those lucky/unlucky ladies were: Jodie Foster in Nell; Annette Bening in American Beauty; Renee Zellweger in Chicago; Julie Christie in Away from Her; and Meryl Streep in Doubt.

The supporting categories both have 10 wins in common, seven SAG only. But the Supporting Actress has a reverse del Toro situation: Kate Winslet won in 2008 for The Reader, but claimed the Oscar that year for Best LEAD Actress with the Academy. And Oscar-winner Kim Basinger (L.A. Confidential) previously shared the supporting SAG award with Gloria Stuart (Titanic).

The best performance by a cast SAG is usually not a good indicator of the Best Picture Oscar, its nearest equivalent. The SAG assesses the actors only, and doesn’t take into account such things as directing, editing, cinematography, score, set design, special effects, etc. Here the SAG has an eight out of 17 record of predicting the Oscar. Not great news for The Help.