Comments on: Polls show Israelis rational about policy, misguided on electionshttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/
Independent commentary and news from Israel & PalestineTue, 31 Mar 2015 21:07:23 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8By: XYZhttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97230
Wed, 12 Dec 2012 10:08:47 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97230I have never understood the polls that consistently show that 60% of the Israeli public supposedly wants negotiations with the Palestinians. After all, it is clear, in spite of the deceptive promise of the Left-”Peace Camp” in Israel that the ONLY possible way to reach an agreement is for Israel to agree to a complete withdrawal to the pre-67 lines, including the division (i.e. the the destruction) of Jerusalem, Israeli admission of guilt regarding the Nakba and Israeli acceptance of an unrestricted Right of Return of the Palestinian refugees. I don’t believe more than 1-2% of Israelis would ever accept such terms, so what does it mean that 60% of Israelis want negotiations with these as the only possible outcome? Is it because naive Israelis believe the Left-”peace camps” siren song that the Palestinians will accept less than what they have been demanding for decades now? Or is it that they believe that talking will supposedly keep things quiet even though it has been repeatedly proven that the acceleration of peace negotiations have always been accompanyed by increased terrorism and violence in order to make the Israeli side more “flexibile” (this is the division of labor between FATAH-PA and HAMAS, FATAH does the talking and HAMAS carries out the terrorism in its name to push Israel to make further concessions).
]]>By: Aaron Grosshttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97226
Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:32:41 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97226I’ve seen sudden, enormous shifts in opinion on the “peace process” twice since I’ve been here. The first was after Rabin’s assassination. That shift really scared me, because it was the political expression of pure sentiment. The political conditions hadn’t changed at all.

The second time was in September 2000, when the entire Israeli left and center-left changed their minds overnight, except for this tiny remnant at +972. We’re still living in the aftermath of September 2000.

If, per impossibile, the Palestinians were to somehow demonstrate their acceptance of Israel’s existence, I’m practically certain there would be another sudden shift.

]]>By: Greg Pollockhttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97200
Wed, 12 Dec 2012 04:28:17 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97200The framing of risk shapes response. So Livni’s add “Bibi and Lieberman – international boycott; Tzipi Livni – diplomatic solution. Food for thought from Hatnua” attempts to shift risk by shifting the frame, to the US and Europe, mostly. I am not endorsing her (right, like that could matter), but just note that she seems to understand the right’s (which actually seem the center in terms of proportion) monopoly of risk avoidance. Risk has to be reframed.
]]>By: Greg Pollockhttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97198
Wed, 12 Dec 2012 04:06:16 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97198Aaron, I’m a kibitzer in the truest since of the term. I live in Arizona, USA, and know no one in Israel (I used to, but that was 15 years ago). I don’t know most Israeli party platforms.

But suppose there is one opposed to settlements, one that might actually get in the next Knesset. If you think similar on that issue, and think it an important one for peace, then I would vote for it. The parties are not the electorate. I hope you are right that there could be a massive electoral shift under the right circumstances. If you think there is a party whose voice might be crucial if that possibility approached, then I would vote for it. The next win is predetermined. So one asks who do I want around if a serious change becomes possible. I would vote for that slate.

]]>By: Dahlia Scheindlinhttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97060
Tue, 11 Dec 2012 10:56:33 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97060Joel – Actually the Peace Index doesn’t provide breakdowns by sector, only Arab and Jewish (but remember, this is a very small sample of Arabs). The Israel Democracy Index which is published annually provides some further breakdowns, although not specifically of electoral issues you mention. Still it’s a very good resource: http://en.idi.org.il/media/1365574/Index2012%20-%20Eng.pdf

A survey of mine is about to be released by Shaharit that also goes into depth about different sectors. If you contact me by regular email I’ll keep you posted about it.

Do you know of and could you point me to some polls that look at voting priorities in different segments of Israeli society? I would be very interested to know to what extent siocioeconomic / personal leadership / over ideology / habit / security / education / the conflict / etc issues are prioritized in voting behaviour.

My point is that we tend to assume that the stance to the conflict both among Israelies and Palestinians is the determining factor for support of various factions, but I’d like to see if and to what extent it actually is so.

]]>By: Aaron Grosshttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97033
Tue, 11 Dec 2012 07:57:37 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97033OK, I think I misunderstood your point before but I understand now. I think you’re saying, vote for a list like Hatnu`a that wants a peace agreement now (which I don’t), because they’ll lose anyway, but it will prepare for a real peace later.

I don’t accept that reasoning. I think that, domestically, there’s no preparation for peace needed. Israelis believe in land-for-peace, as they have for decades. If and when Israelis see that as feasible, there will be a huge wave of electoral support for the pro-peace parties. For good or ill (I’d say both), Israeli public opinion can change overnight in reaction to events.

]]>By: Piotr Bermanhttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97024
Tue, 11 Dec 2012 07:04:39 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-9702484% of Jewish Israelis feel that the last military operation is justified by the results, and 60% think that deterrence is the same or weaker in the aftermath.

Perhaps a significant percentage sees the excess of deterrence as a problem, and that problem was alleviated by the operation. With luck, subsequent operations (the next expected within a year) will move this even further. Eventually, the situation will stabilize like it happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon. (Equilibrium of deterrence.) From that point of view, the government not fulfilling its goals is a distinct plus.

A surprising corollary is that the country needs somewhat stupid government that achieves positive goals against its wishes.

]]>By: Aaron Grosshttp://972mag.com/polls-show-israelis-rational-about-policy-misguided-on-elections/61779/comment-page-1/#comment-97013
Tue, 11 Dec 2012 05:11:46 +0000http://972mag.com/?p=61779#comment-97013Greg, who is this opposition? Which party is trying to avoid a (false) peace agreement today, but set the ground for peace tomorrow?
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