Pac-10 football: The five toughest schedules

Part two of my Pac-10 schedule analysis, with BCS conference versions (softest and toughest) coming in the next day or two.

… Which reminds me: Thank you, Penn State, for making it easy to pick the softest BCS schedule. You are really too kind, and never let anyone tell you differently …

To repeat what I mentioned in the post on the Pac-10 softest schedules:

I believe it’s far better to play the mid-level teams (Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon State) at home, because you have a better chance to win … and the top teams (USC, Cal, Oregon) on the road, because they’re probably losses anyhow.

When it’s reversed — when you play the top teams at home and the mid-levels on the road — then it’s a double-whammy of difficulty.

Ranked from tough to toughest …

5. Cal. The OOC is mediocre, but the early-season quadruple (at Minnesota, at Oregon, USC, bye, at UCLA) is tough and potentially brutal if Minnesota’s a top-tier Big Ten team and if UCLA improves as much as I think it has improved.

4. UCLA. Trip to Tennessee won’t be easy — the SEC never is for Pac-10 teams not named USC — and Kansas State should win seven or eight games and challenge for the Big 12 North title. Also: the Bruins get the wrong teams on the road in league play: They’d be much better off with OSU, Stanford and Arizona at home.

3. Oregon: Ducks open at Boise State, a huge game in a tough setting, then play Purdue, Utah and Cal in Autzen — and that’s September. Also: UCLA, Stanford and Arizona on the road. Yikes.

2. Washington: Big surprise … Actually, the schedule is a bit easier than last year’s, with Idaho in for BYU. Otherwise: ridiculous (vs. LSU, at Notre Dame, and all the Pac-10 team UW should want at home are instead on the road)

1. USC: A no-brainer pick. The Trojans play Ohio State, Notre Dame, Cal and Oregon on the road. And four of the first six are away from home, which isn’t so good for a rookie QB.

Jon Wilner

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Love your columns. You might note that the Ducks of Oregon are playing the Huskies in Washington. That is a very slight advantage to the Fuskies.

Cheers.

D W

How USC does the first six games will determine how much closer they can get to Florida. Because right now, nobody is close to the Gators. And barring an LSU, Alabama, or Georgia upset, nobody will be equal to the Gators if the Bears get it done v the Trojans (very possible). Even with the SEC easily the best conference in NCAA Football, only SC has similar depth to Florida, but if the QB situation flounders, forget it.

DieHardHusky

Mr. Wilner,

UW should be ranked ahead of USC. Why? Because UW has to play USC! Further, I would much rather play at Ohio State with USC’s players as opposed to playing LSU in Seattle with the Huskies!

DieHardHusky

Ahhhhh, it is niced to be ranked #2!!!

GO DAWGS!!

mk92

Does this really warrant two separate posts (and therefore two separate comment threads)? Why not just rank the scheds 1-10?

NatureLove2

UW has a tougher schedule than Oregon? LSU ok, but didnt Notre Dame barely make it to a bowl game last year? Isnt the reason that Notre Dame is even being discussed this year because their schedule is so “manageable” with 0-12 UW to highlight it? Doesnt make sense to me when you consider Utah and Boise are both better……then again UW will have one harder game on their schedule than every respectable team in the PAC this year. Hopefully the scrimmage up in Washington formally known as the Apple Cup is as exciting as last years.

Jacob Wang

Jon: Cal also will open the season v. Maryland & then EWU, both at home.

Big D

Utah > ND so add USC, CAL, BSU who really has the tougher schedule?

desert dog

Jon,
Appreciate the humor about Penn State, but vying for THE cream-puff schedule could easily be ND and Boise State. The only tough game for BS is Oregon, and that’s at home, and Nd’s only really tough game is at USC. They will both go to big bowls, unearned by both. It’s not BS’s fault, weak league, but ND has NO excuse for what they are calling a schedule. Their OOC is wimpy. Trying to save the fat man’s job I suppose.

B

“Even with the SEC easily the best conference in NCAA Football”

How do you figure they’re the best before a single game has been played? This is what I hate – these kinds of statements completely destroy any chances for a reasonable debate.

USC Maddog

B, I agree…preseason rankings and internet chatter about “best team” or “best conferences” gives some teams a huge lead going into the season and before they even play one game. I say let the season play out and we shouldn’t have any rankings until 3-4 games into the season.

Dean

Jon, another season is upon us, and I can’t wait to watch your inherent bias show through week by week.

Anyways, I ranked each conference and team based on last years records (and yes I know this years teams will not duplicate their exact performances, but it is an ok baromter), and versus where the games are being played. I did not incorporate bye weeks into my factors like you did. Anyways, here is my Pac10 rankings based on my strength of schedule (SOS):

Oh, and one last thing, while Penn St has a seriously bad schedule, I would offer the following two teams with even worse ones: Northwestern and Ole Miss (yes one of your beloved SEC teams, which may qualify for a BCS bowl with their schedule).

Thats not one, but TWO FCS teams, two lower level CUSA teams, all tough SEC games at home, no Florida, or Georgia and every road game in SEC is winnable.

B

Dean, good work, but that makes me sad to see Ole Miss’ schedule. Obviously they’re going to be touted as a powerhouse going through the brutal SEC schedule despite playing creampuffs on a weekly basis to get a 10-2 type record. I don’t hate that the SEC manipulates their schedule that way…I hate that people actually listen to them without question when they yell out “We’re the best!”…

AERose

“and Kansas State should win seven or eight games and challenge for the Big 12 North title.”

Insomuch as everyone in the Big 12 North is a challenger for the Big 12 North (or as I like to call it, the ACC West) title, sure, Kansas State will challenge for the title. But as far as I can tell they’re a mediocre team surrounded by morale-killing controversy with a new coach and a new quarterback and as such aren’t even really close to the top half of the division (Nebraska, Kansas, Mizzu).

http://www.shelistoddart.com Preston Wilmoth

I couldn’t agree more with your article, you are a thorough writer, I have added your feed to my google news reader, thank you so much!