Accuscore analysis: Colts-Chargers

AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time, to project likely outcomes. Here is its assessment of Sunday's Chargers game against the Colts.

As forecasted, the Chargers stayed close at Pittsburgh last week, but ultimately lost. Their playoff chances took a major hit as well when the Denver Broncos managed to pull off their second consecutive upset.

BREAKOUT DAY FOR LT

LaDainian Tomlinson is in good position to have a big game this week. Houston gashed the Colts for 177 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week in Indianapolis. The Chargers' pass-to-run ratio in simulations is 55/45. LT is cranking out over 5 yards per carry to help San Diego win 61 percent of simulations.

AccuScore wanted to see if the Chargers would be better off throwing more or going with a more conservative game plan and giving Tomlinson more than 25 carries. It appears that the baseline forecast of 21.5 carries is the best option, with both the pass-first and run-first offensive options resulting in San Diego's winning percentage dropping.

Run more.....................55%.....19-28.....220....1.6....0.9.....58%

When the Chargers pass more, Rivers has slightly more TD passes (1.8 to 1.7) but his interceptions increase from 1.1 to 1.3. The “extra” interceptions result in a lower San Diego winning percentage. When the Chargers rush more, their total yardage goes down because LT is averaging only 5 more yards per simulation in the “run more” option, but Rivers is passing for 15 fewer yards. Rivers throws fewer interceptions in this scenario, but his TD production and the reduced yardage result in a lower winning percentage.

CAN MANNING BE STOPPED?

The Chargers were able to sack Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger four times, but they still allowed him to complete 31 of 41 passes for 308 yards. The fact is four sacks for Roethlisberger is just slightly more than his 3.2 average. The Chargers need to pressure Manning and force at least one interception. In simulations in which Manning was sacked at least twice and picked off at least once, the Charger's winning percentage increased from 61 percent to 76.