Money can't buy wins in Senate races

For all of the carping about the outsize impact of spending on elections, a pack of Republican Senate nominees this year has proven that money isn’t everything.

In six of the most hotly contested GOP primary contests this cycle, the best-funded candidate lost.

Story Continued Below

The latest example came Tuesday night when Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake beat back a challenge by deep-pocketed real estate mogul Wil Cardon, who dumped $8 million of his personal fortune into his campaign. The upstart Cardon outspent Flake 2 to 1 on the air but still lost by a staggering 48 percentage points.

“It’s the exception to the rule. Ninety-five percent of the time, the candidate who spends the most wins,” said Mike McCabe of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which tracks political spending in the Badger State.

But not in this year’s Senate primary field.

There isn’t one direct explanation for the trend. Some of the thrifty winners benefited from a splintered field, ducking below a crossfire of negativity. Others were buoyed by the resilient anti-establishment and grass-roots movement that continues to build on its 2010 success. But the takeaway is unmistakable: Of course money still matters, but you can’t take it to the bank.

“There is a point in high-profile races where there is a diminishing return on advertising dollars, especially in the waning days,” said Texas GOP consultant Ray Sullivan, the chief spokesman for Rick Perry’s presidential bid.

Take Wisconsin, where Tommy Thompson emerged from a fractured four-way field to win.

The former four-term governor spent $2.7 million to clinch the nomination, but that was easily dwarfed by the more than $5 million of personal money investor Eric Hovde put into the race.

Even accounting for the $1.6 million of outside spending that battered Hovde, Thompson — once the most prolific fundraiser in Wisconsin history — was outgunned.

Former Rep. Mark Neumann — the biggest beneficiary of outside spending by endorsers like the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund — finished a distant third.

“It’s odd to think Tommy Thompson could run statewide and get outspent,” said McCabe, who recalled the 1998 gubernatorial contest where Thompson’s war chest ended up being seven times bigger than his Democratic opponent’s. “But Thompson could afford it because there’s a familiarity with voters that didn’t exist for Hovde.”

Earlier this month in Missouri, another largely unknown self-funder learned that money can buy a ticket to the prom but won’t guarantee a dance.

Despite dumping $6.9 million into the campaign to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill, manufacturing CEO John Brunner was upended by Rep. Todd Akin and finished just a percentage point ahead of third-place candidate Sarah Steelman.

Without a doubt, Brunner’s investment yielded him a return. This time last year, the first-time candidate registered just 3 percent in the polls.

But much like Hovde, Brunner’s largesse placed a fat target on his back. In the closing weeks, he took the greatest amount of incoming fire on the airwaves from Democrats and a super PAC supporting Steelman.

Brunner outspent Akin 3 to 1, even including the outside spending against the St. Louis-area businessman. But Akin won by 6 percentage points.