I'm not going to go as far as to say I agree with Lee (besides, I think there would be a snowball fight in hell if that happened). BUT...Singler is a particular brand of frustrating for me as a fan. He's the kind of player that for every good play he makes (and he DOES makes them), he turns around and makes two ridiculously stupid plays. What bugs me the most is that Singler's mistakes are the same kind of mistakes over and over again. The difference is this, if Monroe shows too hard on the P&R and doesn't get back to defend in time, he may do that on a certain play, but it's not over and over and over again. You can look at certain possessions and see the mistake, but it's not a highlight reel of Greg showing too hard on the P&R on play after play. The kind of thing that is frustrating about Singler is that he will repeatedly foul someone too late to stop a shot and give up 3pt plays (or potential 3 pt plays) constantly. Couple that with Singler, Stuckey, and Bynum repeatedly sagging off of weak side open shooters to provide help defense on big men they could never hope to stop even IF they got the ball (hence Singler's repeated 3pt play fouling) and you have a recipe for constantly giving up open shots if the opponent knows how to pass the ball. It's not that Singler is the one reason DET is struggling, but he's one of the single most frustrating to watch because he makes the same stupid errors over and over and he's one of the guys who seems to be impervious to having his minutes reduced when other guys seem to get yanked the minute they screw up. Drummond provides WAY more game to game than Singler ever will, but Cheeks will yank Andre in an instant if he makes mistakes.

Click to expand...

I wish I had data on the number of and-1's that Singler gives up. I don't, but will say that I don't recall it being a problem.

The kind of thing that is frustrating about Singler is that he will repeatedly foul someone too late to stop a shot and give up 3pt plays (or potential 3 pt plays) constantly. Couple that with Singler, Stuckey, and Bynum repeatedly sagging off of weak side open shooters to provide help defense on big men they could never hope to stop even IF they got the ball (hence Singler's repeated 3pt play fouling) and you have a recipe for constantly giving up open shots if the opponent knows how to pass the ball. It's not that Singler is the one reason DET is struggling, but he's one of the single most frustrating to watch because he makes the same stupid errors over and over and he's one of the guys who seems to be impervious to having his minutes reduced when other guys seem to get yanked the minute they screw up. Drummond provides WAY more game to game than Singler ever will, but Cheeks will yank Andre in an instant if he makes mistakes.

Click to expand...

Kyle Singler has fouled another player 3 times this year where they made the bucket and then converted the free throw (3 and 1's.). That doesn't qualify as constantly in my book.
His total shooting foul rate is 3.7% compared to 3.2% for Josh Smith. That is a rounding error.

However, I view that as a cost of guarding people and not a mistake. If you sag off your man like Smith, it's really unlikely that you're going to foul them.

On the season, Singler's man has gone 17-60 from 3-point range for a shooting percentage of 28.3%. Absolutely spectacular. 2 of them came off of screens and 1 was a pick and pop. So, when he wasn't interfered with and didn't have to switch, his man was 14-55 (25.5%). For bothering his man that much, I would say that he does a phenomenal job of avoiding contact.

In contrast, Smith has allowed his man to shoot 41-109 from 3-point range for a shooting percentage of 37.6%. That is not good.

And fittingly, Smith's man attempts 3's more often than Kyle's man... because they have an easier time getting open and they draw up plays to take advantage of the mismatch on offense.

Good to get the win, but it glossed over our horrible last quarter. I can understand Mo wanting to try something different to finish the game considering how bad our 4ths have been, but those small ball lineups are ludicrous! And to stick with it after he saw how bad it was going was even worse. We were just lucky Josh hits that 3.

I think you're displaying something here called Confirmation Bias, which is the deeply-rooted human tendency to put more weight behind information that confirms our beliefs. When you watch the tape, you are noticing all of Singler's flaws, of course, because he has them. He's not Lebron James (though he's a better rebounder in traffic, apparently). Unless Singler has an overwhelmingly good game where you can't reasonably criticize him, there will always be ways to shine a negative light on the guy. There are always ways to shine a negative light on any guy, if we want. Drummond doesn't play defense hard. Monroe misses a lot of bunnies. Smith makes a lot of crazy decisions. Jennings takes ill-advised shots. Bynum's height makes it difficult for him to compete defensively. Kevin Durant lacks strength to defend in the post. Lebron James isn't great in the clutch. Dwight Howard has had injuries the past couple years, and isn't the defensive stalwart he once was.

We think that we start out by observing the world and then forming our beliefs by those observations, but we give ourselves a lot more credit for our ability to rationally analyze situations than we actually deserve. In reality, we notice something, then talk ourselves into believing it more. When we argue for it, it causes us to believe it even harder. This type of thing actually kills coaches, as they put guys in doghouses for isolated incidents, those guys repeat some errors, and those coaches never give the players the benefit of the doubt. Frustration builds, and players and coaches find themselves out of a job because of it. Careers (and marriages, families, friendships, etc.) are destroyed this way, and it happens all the time, because neither side is willing to acknowledge their own confirmation biases.

That's where I think you are with Singler. He has obvious flaws. He's not a game changer. He's not a SF that's going to give you 20 points and 8 boards a game while shooting 3/6 from downtown. He's not going to hold other teams' scorers to zero points.

But he also has strengths that have to be acknowledged. He's often the only guy on the court playing good position defense. When he subs in for Drummond, he's usually subbing in at the same time that Stuckey is coming in for KCP. If you put Jennings, Stuckey, and Monroe on the court together, breakdowns are going to happen a lot. That's because they're all bad defenders. And when those breakdowns happen, and all of the sudden Singler has the responsibility of covering for three separate players because his teammates can't play defense, then it's easy to pick on him because he's the only one that's taking any responsibility for guarding the whole team. And if you're going into that analysis already confident that Singler's the problem, it's very easy to find reasons that he is and overlook reasons that he may not be.

That's why we have statistical analysis. If you look at the stats with an unbiased eye, the truth is that Singler - a bench player that's not playing in his ideal position - is not even close to the problem on the team. But doing this isn't easy, because we can use stats to prove or disprove what we already believe just as easily as we can use our own observations. You did this when you said "the last 7 games except for the 2 against bad teams," which is a inexcusably-biased small sample that you likely picked because it confirmed what you already believed.

Let me ask you this - when you go through the data, what is your hypothesis? If your hypothesis is "Singler is at fault," then good for you, you'll find data to support it without much difficulty. I find myself doing things like that. I did that yesterday when I looked through KCP's game log on basketball-reference.com. I went in assuming that KCP was playing better recently, and looked for data to justify that. I saw that he had several double-digit game scores, and that immediately confirmed what I was thinking.

The problem with that, though, is twofold. First off, my hypothesis was way too vague. I didn't set a numerical standard for it, and that meant that all I had to do was find a single piece of data and my opinion was justified. It should have been "KCP has been shooting well (above .375 from three-point land) over the past 10 games." That is either true or not. But that's not what I did, because I know that, subconsciously, I don't want to be proven wrong.

The second problem with this is that I stopped once I found what I was looking for. I skipped past the plus/minus score (too many variables involved in +/- scores, the stat is nearly useless over a period of only a few games), ignored whatever his three-point % was (it was low and was only a small sample size anyway), and honed in on the game scores, because there were a handful in the double digits (aha! A trend, and a positive one that shows that those games have been pretty good!) If I had kept going, I probably would have looked at his opponents' numbers, his FT shooting, etc. I don't know what I would have found, but it would have undoubtedly painted a more accurate picture.

And that's the type of thinking that I have no doubt that you're falling prey to. Again, I'm not calling you inferior or anything - we all do it. But your analysis is completely tainted at this point by your disgust with Kyle. It feels to me like every time you do a thorough analysis, you are looking so hard to demonstrate to everyone that you're right (how come all these idiots can't see how useless this clown is?), that you're missing the bigger picture; you're placing responsibility for the struggles of this team in the hands of a bench role player that is given the unfortunate task of covering for everyone else's mistakes. If he's on the court with Bynum, Billups, Smith, and Drummond, he's screwed! Nobody else on that squad closes out. Nobody else on that squad plays where they're supposed to, nobody else on that squad is going to pass to him the perimeter, and he's not going to get a lot of rebounds with Smith and Drummond in there with him. The end result is exactly what the data says is happening - he's going to be doing exactly what he's told, but it's not enough because NOBODY could be doing his job correctly.

Now, if were an isolated case of disgust with Singler, we'd all be trying to see what you see. But you have a history of this, where you champion or denigrate a certain player to a ridiculous level. You want to be right, gosh darnit, and are completely unwilling to step back outside of your stubborn causes to see that your beliefs are not as simple as you make them. These analyses are complicated, and humans are bad logical thinkers in the first place. When you are unwilling to look at your opinions as grey areas (which, if I may speak for what I see from others, is obvious to most posters here) that can change from one week to the next, then you're going to continually paint yourself into a corner as you have with so many Pistons' bench players of yesteryear.

Take a deep breath, Lee. Nobody here is saying Singler is an all-star. Nobody is calling him an amazing player. He makes mistakes. He isn't perfect. But he isn't dragging the team down like you claim, and if you look at the data with an unjudging eye, you'll see that he actually is a pretty decent player, one that gets a bad rap because he doesn't fill out the traditional categories we typically associate with excellence (points and rebounds).

Click to expand...

No, I do not go looking for problems with Singler. I primarily just watch the games for enjoyment, hoping the Pistons will win. What I share, is from what I see. If I see Singler get beat by a taller guy on one play, and later get put on the perimeter to get beat off the dribble, I will simply say what I saw. And I do lately count up the points Singler gives up for being too slow, and for being too short / weak as an NBA front line player.

I will ask you this. You probably know I love seeing Pope get minutes. Do I ever pine for him to get more minutes by playing at small forward. No, never. Too slight for that position. It does the Pistons no good. I also pick on CV, whenever he plays, because he consistently fails to play defense. What you are seeing from me lately is very simpe, Singler is playing a lot, and there is a ton of bad plays he is involved in.

In chat, anyone who is there will notice that if Singler does something good, I mention it. And if he does somelthing, or simply is incapable of doing something a small forward should be capable of, I mention that also. I am not putting any great emphasis on Singler beyound what his share of the problems are. Good luck with your next theory. Meanwhile, although you sound reasonable for most of your post, at the end you make statements that Singler is in fact a fine small forward. How strong is that sentiment of yours, and is it effecting your view of my criticism of Singler.

Did you all actually watch the game? Look I thought Cheeks' lineups were absolutely ludicrous, but I understood why he did had to do it. Phx in effort to try and pull out a win on the road went with a gimmick lineup (3 guards, a small SF and Frye), our big lineup couldn't stop them or score on the other end so he went small to try and defend them. This is a flawed team and when they went spread option on us we simply couldn't handle them.

Click to expand...

I thought the problem was that he didn't tell them to stop switching in the post. Thats where we got so burned - consecutive plays of Jennings and Bynum being posted up because of a lazy switch on defense rather than fighting through the screen.

Nothing is unusual on this list except that Kyle Singler is statistically the best perimeter defender on the entire planet. The Pistons' quant department knows these numbers (100% guaranteed) and the information is fed to Cheeks.

Would I trade Lebron or Paul George straight up for Singler? I could be convinced.

Nothing is unusual on this list except that Kyle Singler is statistically the best perimeter defender on the entire planet. The Pistons' quant department knows these numbers (100% guaranteed) and the information is fed to Cheeks.

Would I trade Lebron or Paul George straight up for Singler? I could be convinced.

Click to expand...

That's definitely interesting, however Singler has only been out there for a bit under half the attempts that George/Lebron have. Statistics need context too - Singler comes off the bench and is guaranteed to log at least a large percentage of his minutes against rotation players rather than starting units. I would argue that this numbers are probably skewed as a result.

Having said that, they are definitely impressive. I agree that he is one of the more fundamentally sound defenders on our unit.

To the more accomplished game watchers (I only get to watch maybe 1 in 2), how does our defense look when Singler and Pope are on the floor together? I imagine the perimeter defense is far better.

I thought the problem was that he didn't tell them to stop switching in the post. Thats where we got so burned - consecutive plays of Jennings and Bynum being posted up because of a lazy switch on defense rather than fighting through the screen.

Click to expand...

That's kind of the story of our entire season. A complete inability to guard the pick and roll. Before they were switching Frye was getting WIDE OPEN looks from his sweet spot from beyond the arc. We took that away and then began to concede the Jennings/Bynum post up but not a single one of our bigs could defend any of their littles. Contrary to what others believe the coach HAD to adjust to them. Did it piss me off? Of course! But I was upset that we were just that bad of a team that we had to adjust. But who was Monroe and/or Drummond going to guard? It stunk to high heaven but they were burning us, just like every other team in the league. Maybe we should have put KCP on the ball since he seems to be the only player capable of fighting through, over or around a pick. I also thought that this was a perfect time to go with JJ and bench Jennings.....but there's no way Cheecks will ever sit Jennings down the stretch of the 4th qtr.

That's definitely interesting, however Singler has only been out there for a bit under half the attempts that George/Lebron have. Statistics need context too - Singler comes off the bench and is guaranteed to log at least a large percentage of his minutes against rotation players rather than starting units. I would argue that this numbers are probably skewed as a result.

Click to expand...

If he allowed 50% shooting, I bet it would feel like a more significant sample.

The only guys I could find with similar results in similar roles were casspi and hollis thompson. Both have recently received recognition for their defensive efforts with thompson going from d-league to starter. Casspi has been noticed by the advanced stats guys as being involved in combinations that have unusually strong defensive attributes.

I agree with your skepticism instinct. It's unusual enough with singler though that testing it further by pairing him with the starters isn't that big of a gamble.

With Rodney Stuckey (still) hurt, KCP is our only SG and Singler is our only SF. With that being said who is the other SF that should be playing instead of Singler? GiGi? JJ? Oh never mind, I forgot....Tony Mitchell....LMBO!!!

If he allowed 50% shooting, I bet it would feel like a more significant sample.

Click to expand...

To who? I actually agree with most of the insights you have posted. And that kind of defense would still get a tick from me if it was all in garbage time. I think that statistics need context to be useful - e.g I don't think that KS and Lebron/PG are incomparable due to the different roles that they play in the team and matchups they experience on the court. But it goes both ways - Lebron gives up more on a better team, Singler gives up less on a bad team. Is KS's skill being masked or skewed by our losing records (i.e +/-, AST%, WARP)?

Singler doesn't pass my eye test as an NBA starter, but I certainly don't think he is worthless.

Not counting Philly and New York, teams that are 12-25 and 14-22 at the moment respectively, Singler is minus 86 in our last 7 games. If you think he is so good, can you explain why we consistently are playing losing basketball when he is in the game. I would love to hear your theory on this.

Click to expand...

I find a difficult to understand that one guy seems to have more knowledge and a different opinion about a player then a coach + assisitant coaches + a GM + an entire organisation. Especially when that person only watches TV footage while the rest is with the player 24/7 including practises.

The 3 point shooting disparity in volume and percentage is one of the worst things about our team this year. Removing Josh Smith from 3 point territory on both ends of the court is the obvious solution. Luckily, KS, the only candidate to replace him, is OK at shooting and is above average at defending the perimeter. Jorts might also help since he can spread the floor and take opposing centers out of the paint.

More jorts with our driving guards might be a good experiment. Not sure how that would work out defensively.