Keywords:

Abstract:

The paper reports progress in the development of a
practical probabilistic model for the estimation of
expected annual damage induced by hurricane winds in
residential structures. The estimation of the damage is
accomplished in several steps. First, basic damage modes
for components of specific building types are defined.
Second, the damage modes are combined in possible damage
states, whose probabilities of occurrence are calculated
as functions of wind speeds from Monte Carlo simulations
conducted on engineering numerical models of typical
houses. The paper describes the conceptual framework for
the proposed model, and illustrates its application for
a specific building type with hypothetical probabilistic
input. Actual probabilistic input must be based on
laboratory studies, postdamage surveys, insurance claims
data, engineering analyses and judgment, and Monte Carlo
simulation methods. The proposed component-based model
is flexible and transparent. It is therefore capable of
being readily scrutinized. The model can be used in
conjunction with historical loss data, to which it can
readily be calibrated.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department.