Now it's back to the grindstone

June 4 2003

John Howard wants to be remembered as his own man although, in political lineage terms at least, he will always be a son of Menzies.

"I think of the Menzies period as a golden age in terms of people," he said in 1989. "Australia had a sense of family, social stability and optimism during that period." The Prime Minister has refined his ideas and honed his skills over his long and sometimes tortuous 29 years as a parliamentarian, but the cloth was cut early in life.

Mr Howard did not change so much as opportunities and circumstances changed around him. He became the man for his time. Like Robert Menzies, he is not given to self doubt. With grit and single-mindedness, both men recovered from career disasters. Where Sir Robert identified the "forgotten people", Mr Howard's resurrection - the Lazarus with a triple bypass - was delivered by his ability to connect with "the battlers", a class attracted by his ordinariness and mainstream values that contrasted him with the elitism they despise. He cannot displace Sir Robert from his pedestal in Liberal history, but his decision to remain in office will present him with the opportunity to take a step nearer his political inspiration.

But risks are inherent in Mr Howard's perseverance. Sir Robert was the only prime minister to depart the office on his own terms. He, too, came within an inch of defeat before completing his record 18 years as the nation's leader. With Bob Carr, Mr Howard is the only incumbent political leader to have won three elections, an achievement not repeated since Bob Hawke's 1987 win. If Mr Howard succeeds at the election due next year, he will match Mr Hawke's four consecutive wins. He will be the longest-serving prime minister apart from Sir Robert. When derisively dismissed as Mr 13 per cent in the late 1980s, no one (with the possible exception of his wife, Janette) would have dared to even contemplate such a future.

The extraordinary Howard success has an implied flip side. In politics, with its history of players tempting fate by chancing their arms on the bridge too far, the glory delivered in trust by the people can just as easily be snatched away. The historical context is important because it demonstrates a consistent pattern of voters tiring of political leaders, even when they are regarded as having done an able job. Just ask Jeff Kennett or Richard Court.");document.write("

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Mr Howard is gambling on winning. But opinion polls show the Coalition's comfort zone over Labor has evaporated within a few months, even though Simon Crean fails to register positively. Labor's leadership mess, of course, assists the Coalition cause. That may not continue through to the next election. Nor might the global and regional security emphasis, including border protection, which turned political fortunes at home as voters turned their minds to the political option that made them feel safest in an uncertain world.

That environment tends to overshadow domestic management. Already there are signs that issues of education and health are beginning to reassert themselves as public concerns. Presumably, this contributed to the shrinkage of the Coalition lead. John Howard runs the risk of missing the obvious opportunity to retire a winner.

Mr Howard is a strong leader. His style is as near to presidential as our system of government can accommodate. He is fit and tireless. Virtually nothing comes out of his Government unless he has given it the tick. His pledge yesterday to return his party's loyalty and generosity by continuing as leader as long as "it remains in the party's best interests" was understandably welcomed by those colleagues who see it as a ticket to continuing on the government benches. The public reaction may take until the next election to totally assess.

Whatever Mr Howard meant by his radio comments on his 61st birthday three years ago, he left the impression this would be his last term. After the 2001 election, he said "obviously one has to recognise I'll then be in my 63rd or 64th year", an age demanding serious thinking about whether to continue. Characteristically, Mr Howard dismissed as arrogant "the view I am so indispensable and so important and so vital that, you know, the Liberal Party will be bereft without me". Within weeks, he was backtracking but the concrete had set. The public expectation (and that of his deputy, Peter Costello) was that Mr Howard had drawn the line. As it turned out, others in the Liberal Party took the "view" of his indispensability for him. They will need to convince their electorates they are worth persisting with beyond an election which almost certainly will be Mr Howard's last.

Overall, however, Mr Howard's clearing of the air is welcome. Leadership transition can distract, even block, governments from the task at hand, as it did when Mr Hawke was under siege from Paul Keating.

That Australia has the leader of its choice is a compelling argument against change. The challenge of preserving that trust rests unambiguously on the Howard shoulders. He must seize the opportunity to restore his Government's focus on reform. He must refresh and review his vision so that he is assured of a fourth term agenda. With the help of all his Government, including the important contributions of moderates not aligned to his ideology, Mr Howard must direct efforts to accelerating opportunities which lapsed in his third term. Integrated reform of the tax and welfare systems would make a good starting point.

Mr Costello got a day's notice of Mr Howard's intention. "It wasn't my happiest day," the Treasurer said yesterday. Even though rivals might take heart from the extra time afforded their ambitions, Mr Costello remains the heir apparent. He will just have to cool his heels while fulfilling yesterday's promise to "continue working on a very vigorous policy agenda". That will only enhance his claim to succeed Mr Howard. Between them, they have a blessed opportunity to advance the interests of all Australians. In the end, that should be sufficient reward for any politician.