07ASTANA1848, KAZAKHSTAN: GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION VIEWS ON

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 001848
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (M. O'MARA)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
TAGS: PGOVPHUMPRELKZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION VIEWS ON
UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
Classified By: CDA Kevin Milas, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
¶1. (C) Summary: While some in the government seek to dampen
expectations about the opposition's performance in upcoming
parliamentary elections, the opposition itself is uniting and
preparing to run an active campaign highlighting social
justice issues and the presidential Nur Otan party's Achilles
heel of corruption. Presidential Administration head Adilbek
Dzhaksybekov assured the Ambassador that the authorities will
ensure fair Mazhilis elections on August 18, but predicted
that the opposition's decision to unite under the Social
Democratic name will cost it votes. Opposition leaders
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay and Bulat Abilov claim that the united
opposition faces an uphill battle against "fake" opposition
parties and a presidential party benefiting from massive
private sector subsidies, administrative resources, and
biased electoral commissions. End summary.
--------------------------------------------- -----
Government: Opposition Will Fail in Fair Elections
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶2. (C) The Kazakhstani government is doing everything it can
to ensure that the August 18 elections for the Mazhilis
(lower house of parliament) will be open to equal competition
by all parties, Presidential Administration head Adilbek
Dzhaksybekov told the Ambassador on June 28. Dzhaksybekov,
whose awkward body language revealed his discomfort
discussing the election issue, claimed that "everyone" was
seeking administrative resources from the government but "not
even (presidential party) Nur Otan" will receive assistance.
¶3. (C) Dzhaksybekov stated that the government recognized the
long-term benefit of having the opposition represented in
parliament. He said that he is nonetheless skeptical that
the newly enlarged Social Democratic party, which has
absorbed True Ak Zhol, will be able to cross the 7% threshold
for inclusion. Dzhaksybekov characterized it as a mistake
for the opposition to abandon the well-known True Ak Zhol
"brand." All parties, even Nur Otan, will face difficulty
getting out the vote during the hot vacation season in
August, he said.
--------------------------------------------- ---
Opposition: Results Will Be Determined by Astana
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶4. (SBU) During a June 29 meeting with the Ambassador,
opposition leaders Zharmakhan Tuyakbay and Bulat Abilov
confirmed the decision to merge the Social Democratic and
True Ak Zhol parties at a July 7 party congress. The new
party's campaign platform will focus on themes that will
resonate with the general public such as education, health
care, natural resources, corruption, criminality, and drugs,
said Tuyakbay. (In a separate conversation with the DCM,
opposition activist Petr Svoik said that two main campaign
slogans would be "Hands Off Our Right-Drive Cars" and "the
National Fund Should be the People's Fund," a reference to
spending more of the country's oil wealth on pressing social
needs.) Tuyakbay told the Ambassador that negotiations were
underway to include Alga and the Communist Party. (Note:
Subsequent press reports indicate that both groups decided
not to join, and the Communists have called on their voters
to boycott the Mazhilis elections. End note.)
¶5. (C) Abilov alleged that rival Alikhan Baymenov's Ak Zhol
party was already receiving administrative resources from the
government and being allowed to advertise widely. The
government will try to portray Ak Zhol as a true opposition
party and will manipulate the voting so that it comes in
second after Nur Otan, he claimed. In contrast, Abilov said,
the Social Democrats had thus far not been able to air a
single television ad. While he expected the television
channels to agree to air their ads during the formal campaign
period, Abilov predicted problems distributing printed
material around the country, which they would seek to avoid
by printing as much as possible locally.
¶6. (SBU) Abilov also complained that the opposition had been
included in only 1,000 of the 10,000 local electoral
commissions around the country. The bulk of their
representatives were in rural areas where they expected few
votes. At the same time, several very small pro-presidential
parties such as Rukhaniyat and the Patriots' Party were
represented on almost all electoral commissions. (Details of
the commission formation process to be reported septel.)
¶7. (C) Abilov predicted that the Social Democrats would
ASTANA 00001848 002 OF 003
receive 30% of the vote. If the campaign, voting, or
tabulation were rigged, the party might pull out of the
voting or refuse to take any seats it won, he added. Voters
distinguish between President Nazarbayev the person, still
respected as the creator of an independent, stable &#x
000A;Kazakhstan, and Nur Otan, which is seen as the party of
corrupt bureaucrats, Abilov said. Tuyakbay commented that
Almaty mayor Imangali Tasmagambetov had become one of the
richest people in the country thanks to billions of dollars
worth of land sales during his tenure. Abilov named
Nazarbayev confidante Bulat Utemuratov as another example of
high-level corruption, "a billionaire who has never had a
business." The opposition will use the scandal surrounding
presidential son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev to show that Nazarbayev
has failed to rein in his family, Tuyakbay said.
¶8. (C) Tuyakbay alleged that Nur Otan has received massive
donations from the country's main businesses, including $50
million each from KazMunayGas and Kaz Temir Zholiy (the
national railroad); $50 million from metals magnate Aleksandr
Mashkevich; $50 million from KazakhMys; and $50 million total
from the five main banks. "The Social Democrats have
resources," he said, "but nothing like Nur Otan's $300
million warchest." Tuyakbay also claimed that oblast akims
(regional leaders) have been ordered to deliver 80% of the
vote to Nur Otan; the akims have in turn set an 85% target
for the local leaders underneath them in order to "outdo the
next guy." He predicted that the final totals would be
determined in Astana, and that Ak Zhol and the Social
Democrats would each likely receive the minimum 7%.
¶9. (SBU) Alga leader Asylbek Kozhakhmetov told the DCM on
July 2 that he believed the end result would depend on
President Nazarbayev's will, but it was realistic to expect
the united opposition forces to cross the 7% threshold and
receive 10-15 seats in the Mazhilis.
------------------------------------------
Zhakiyanov Sees Shortcomings on Both Sides
------------------------------------------
10, (C) In a separate meeting with the Ambassador on June 29,
former opposition leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov said that the
recent constitutional reforms and new elections were
Nazarbayev's way of protecting himself. Nazarbayev is "not
eager to leave office," Zhakiyanov said, but is making
preparations to retain control by appointing more members of
parliament, becoming party leader, and securing the loyalty
of the Assembly of Peoples. Zhakiyanov predicted that when
Nazarbayev left office he would become a senator for life and
take a seat on the Constitutional Council. The recent changes
were not an effort to win the chairmanship of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,
Zhakiyanov asserted. Nazarbayev is "sick of the issue,"
which is "now much more important for Vladimir Putin than for
Nazarbayev himself," he explained.
¶11. (C) Zhakiyanov said that at one point Tuyakbay had the
chance to be the "constructive opposition" included in the
Mazhilis, but the decision to merge with True Ak Zhol would
irritate Nazarbayev because of the group's tendency to make
radical statements. The Social Democrats will therefore
probably receive 6.5% of the vote, Zhakiyanov predicted; Ak
Zhol and perhaps the splinter People's Communist Party would
be included in the lower house. The authorities will say
that the Social Democrats failed to cross the threshold due
to the perceived "closure" of True Ak Zhol and the
Communists' refusal to participate. He saw the decision not
to preserve the True Ak Zhol name as a mistake.
-------
Comment
-------
¶12. (C) Given the Kazakhstani government's continued drive to
chair the OSCE in 2009 (which, despite Zhakiyanov's
assertions, has not flagged), we expect the authorities to do
everything possible to give the appearance of a clean and
fair election. Nevertheless, the opposition's predictions of
abuse of administrative resources and vote manipulation are
not baseless; whatever the exhortations from Astana, the
fundamental conditions which contributed to flawed elections
in the past -- primarily the fact that regional leaders are
appointed by and loyal only to President Nazarbayev -- have
not changed. The fact that the opposition maintains a
relatively optimistic outlook in the face of such odds lends
support to the rumor that negotiations with Astana have
resulted in a mutual understanding regarding the election
ASTANA 00001848 003 OF 003
results.
MILAS

The information recorded on this site has been extracted from http://Wikileaks.org (Kazakhstan) database..

We wish to express our gratitude to Julian Assange and his team for making this data available as it is an important public record.

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