Flu Season ‘Typical’ as U.S. Pushes Shot for All Ages

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The coming influenza season is
shaping up to be a normal one, after the swine flu strain that
swept the globe last year faded into a typical mix of
circulating strains, U.S. health officials said today.

This year’s flu shot provides “excellent matches” for the
strains of influenza that have circulated from July through
September, said Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC expanded its vaccine
recommendation this year to everyone more than 6 months old.

“You and your doctor don’t need to wonder whether you need
to get the flu shot,” Frieden said at a press conference in
Washington. “If you’re old enough to ask, you should get the
flu shot.”

From June through September, the flu cases tested around
the world have followed “typical seasonal patterns,” with
cases divided among three families of influenza strain: H1N1,
H3N2, and Influenza B, according to a study published by the CDC
today. The report examined the global spread of flu during the
Southern Hemisphere’s winter months.

A normal flu season may benefit vaccine companies,
hospitals and makers of products led by rubber gloves and hand
sanitizers, said John L. Sullivan, an analyst at Leerink Swann &
Co. in Boston. While fears of swine flu, or H1N1, drove up
business for many of the companies in early 2009, the actual flu
season turned out lighter than expected, holding down sales, he
said. Health insurers, by contrast, may see costs rise.

‘Positive for Industry’

“If we just get a normal 2010-2011 flu season, it’s
probably a net positive contributor for most of the health-care
industry,” he said. “It means more people showing up in
emergency rooms and at doctor’s visits and that would be a
positive for hospitals and maybe an incremental negative for the
insurers.”

Influenza is a rapidly evolving virus, and the severity of
the season depends on which strains are circulating and how well
a population has been inoculated. Annual deaths associated with
seasonal flu ranged from 3,349 to 48,614 during the last 30
years, according to the CDC. About 90 percent of flu-related
deaths are in people ages 65 or older.

Vaccines from Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA, London-based
AstraZeneca Plc and Basel, Switzerland-based Novartis AG, and
CSL Ltd. of Australia protect against the three strains of flu
that scientists predict are most likely to circulate, the CDC
said. That includes last year’s swine flu, which has replaced
older versions of H1N1, according to the CDC.

180 Million Doses

Vaccine makers will produce as much as 180 million doses
for this flu season, Jeff Dimond, a spokesman for the CDC, said
in an interview. Last year, there were about 110 million doses
of seasonal vaccine available along with about 119 million doses
of H1N1 vaccine shipped, he said.

The circulating strains will also respond to Roche Holding
AG’s Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline Plc’s Relenza, the best-selling
treatments for people who become sick with the flu, according to
the CDC report. Roche is based in Basel, Switzerland and Glaxo
is based in London.

Influenza vaccination rates should be better for the
current season than in previous years, Georges Benjamin,
executive director of the American Public Health Association in
Washington, said in a telephone interview Oct. 6.

Increased Vaccinations

“If I was a betting man, I would be betting on the fact
that the numbers would be higher,” Benjamin said. The message
from health officials is clearer and less confusing because the
U.S. has recommended that almost everyone be immunized and
because the seasonal flu vaccine and H1N1 vaccine are now
contained in a single shot, he said.

People who want to get vaccinated have several choices. In
addition to flu shots, AstraZeneca offers a nasal spray version
called FluMist. Sanofi also received approval this year for a
high-dose version of the shot for people over the age of 65,
whose immune systems are less efficient at producing virus-fighting antibodies after vaccination.

About 50 million people in the U.S. caught swine flu last
year, according to CDC estimates. Children were more likely to
get sick than in a typical year. There were fewer flu deaths
last year because people over the age of 65, who are most
vulnerable, proved unusually resistant to catching the strain.

Last year, about 40 percent of eligible Americans received
a seasonal flu vaccine, up from 33 percent in the previous
season, according to the CDC.

Pandemic Scare

After the pandemic scare in 2009, vaccine company
executives said they expect more Americans to get vaccinated and
to seek the inoculation earlier than they have in previous
years.

“It’s a reaction to last year’s pandemic,” said Len
Lavenda, a Sanofi spokesman, in a telephone interview today.
“That plus the CDC recommendation that everyone over 6 months
old should be getting vaccinated is driving interest. Plus there
is a lot more supply available this year.”

More school-based clinics are ordering shots this year, and
pediatricians are seeking doses earlier in the season than in
the past, said Chris Ambrose, vice president of medical affairs
at AstraZeneca’s MedIummune unit, in an interview today. “
In the past they would wait until late September,” he said.
“This year if they receive their vaccine in July or August they
are beginning to give it out right away.”

70 Million Doses

Sanofi, the largest U.S. vaccine supplier, will ship more
than 70 million doses of seasonal flu during the 2010-2011
influenza season compared with 52 million doses in 2009, Lavenda
said. AstraZeneca is producing about 13.5 million doses of the
nasal spray seasonal flu vaccine FluMist, company spokeswoman
Karen Lancaster said in an e-mailed statement.

CSL’s vaccine is being marketed in the U.S. by Merck & Co.,
based in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey. Merck anticipates it
will distribute about 7 million doses during the current season,
spokeswoman Pam Eisele said today in an e-mailed statement. All
of the product should be delivered by October, she said.

Walgreen Co., the largest U.S. drugstore chain, began
administering seasonal flu vaccines in the U.S. in August and
has given 2.25 million shots. Vaccinations at its pharmacies and
clinics surged five hundred percent last year during the
pandemic, the Deerfield, Illinois-based company said in a
statement today.

Last year’s early flu season contributed to an increase in
prescriptions and non-pharmacy items, said Walgreen Chief
Executive Officer Greg Wasson on a Sept. 28 conference call.
Walgreen distributed 7 million seasonal and H1N1 flu shots last
year.

CVS Caremark Corp., the second largest U.S. drug store
chain, hasn’t broken out financial information related to flu
shots, said Michael DeAngelis, a spokesman for the Woonsocket,
Rhode Island-based company. CVS hasn’t disclosed how many shots
it provided last year, he said.