Islamic Blog dealing with religious and worldly issues faced by the Muslims.

secondriseofislam@blogspot.com

Saturday, 25 January 2014

Waziristan Military Operation- a poor strategic tool

The proposed Waziristan operation cannot be conducted
in isolation; it has to be seen in the perspective of Pakistan’s foreign policy
as well as regional geo-political strategic paradigm. When judged on these
parameters, proposed military operation in Waziristan seems to be a poor
strategic tool which would push Pakistan to a position of weakened regional
player which would be miles away to avail economic and political opportunities
which may be cashed on by adopting a realistic and prudent policy to resolve
the issue of tribal insurgency.

Common tribal Pakistanis look at themselves as true
Pakistanis; they do not nourish any animosity towards Pakistani people and
government authorities. The tribal militants fighting against Pakistan make
only a small portion of common tribal Pakistanis. The militants are spread over
thousands of miles long tribal belt and are mixed up with the common tribal
people. This tribal belt is the most difficult terrain to launch a conventional
military operation particularly against militants which cannot be segregated
from the common tribal people. In such situation, if Pak army resorts to
indiscriminate aerial attacks and military operation, common tribal people
would become vulnerable to huge casualties which would drive them to enmity
towards Pak army and Pakistani common people. Any such situation would embroil Pak army in
tribal belt in a long indecisive military operation at the cost of unbearable
losses inflicted to Pak army. The whole tribal area, and consequently Afghan
Taliban who are allies to TTP, would be lost to Pakistan for all practical
purposes and this hostile scenario would hold Pakistan away from cashing on
economic and political opportunities likely to be presented to Pakistan at
regional level.

Presently China’s more than 50% crude oil
imports are coming from the Middle East. Gawadar is the shortest possible route
from Gulf Straits to China. That is why China while managing this port is
interested to link it by road or railways to China. Consequently Pakistan would
become a vanguard to Chinese imports and exports to and from the Gulf.
Similarly China is destined to overtake soon Russia and USA as a dominating
foreign power in Central Asia politically as well as economically; China is
investing a lot in Central Asian economies. This policy is leading China and
Central Asia to mutual dependence. Pakistan also may connect Gawadar Port to
Central Asian states through roads or railways links through Afghanistan so
that Central Asian states may make use of Gawadar Port. As mentioned above, Middle
East is becoming the greatest source of crude oil for China; this fact is
compelling China to assume greater role in the Middle East. All these
developments may lead Pakistan, Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, China and
later on Gulf states to form an Economic and Political Cooperation block. All these
facts put Pakistan in a very favorable position to use its strategic position
to assume a prominent position in would-be regional Economic and Political
Cooperation. But in order to become an effective member to such a regional
block, Pakistan needs a friendly government in Afghanistan and a peaceful and
friendly tribal belt, because it is through Afghanistan and tribal belt that
Pakistan may be connected with other regional countries of would-be cooperation
block.

The major
consideration of USA is to prevent the probability of China emerging as
economic and political super power and Central Asian Muslim countries including
Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan all joining Chinese block. That is why USA is
pressurizing Pakistan to initiate military operation in Waziristan. The USA may
foresee the negative consequences of such a military operation may convert
tribal belt and Afghan Taliban hostile to Pakistan and consequently hold
Pakistanaway from reaping the benefits
of would-be regional cooperation, and push Pakistan to a subordinate position to India and USA (plz see my article ‘Imperatives of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy’). Such a scenario would
also ensure continuity of deteriorated economic conditions in Pakistan, which
would further serve USA’s interests which are based on weakened Pakistan.

Now the question arises what is the solution of this
tribal insurgency, if military solution is ruled out. One solution to this issue
may be to offer tribal Pakistanis a unified whole tribal belt with a status of
a province having special constitutional status, and where tribal
Pakistanis may establish financial, judicial, political and legal systems
according to their values, culture and ideology; but subjects like communications,
currency, foreign affairs, defense, may be left with the federation. It may be
expected that tribal Pakistanis would accept federation’s writ regarding the
subjects left with the federation, if they are given liberty to live their
collective life according to their ideology.

Acceptance or rejection of this proposed offer may
help Pakistan’s authorities to differentiate between genuine Taliban and the
terrorists concealed in guise of Taliban. Such clear differentiation between
genuine Taliban and terrorists may help Pakistan’s authorities to get
terrorists isolated in the eyes of tribal Pakistanis, and consequently to take
military action against such terrorists without taking risk of casualties of
common tribal Pakistanis which would have distanced themselves already from
such terrorists.

Waziristan insurgency is like an octopus having its
legs deep into internal and external affairs of Pakistan (plz see my article 'Military Operation in N. Waziristan and its Implications). This insurgency has
to be tackled with prudence and pragmatic approach. Any short sighted or reactionary
policy would incur to Pakistan such permanent losses which would be much more
than those losses due to which such reactionary policy would be initiated.