This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

Sunday, November 22, 2009

The low is here

10:50 AM update...here is the latest Doppler velocity image. I normally don't show you this. Blue is incoming westerly winds of 36 kts. A convergence zone has formed with heavy rain in the central Sound.

The low pressure system moved in a little south of the last model forecast, but strong winds are now hitting the central and southern WA coast . For example, the above image shows the surge to 45 knots at Tokeland at the north end of Willapa Bay. And Astoria and Westport have done the same.

And here is an official spotter report on the southern coast...85 mph.

0430 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW OYSTERVILLE 46.54N 124.05W

11/22/2009 M85.00 MPH PACIFIC WA TRAINED SPOTTER

DUAL ANENOMETERS...BOTH READ 84 AND 85 MPH PEAK GUSTS.

You can see the wind transition in the vertical looking at the Westport "atmospheric river" observatory information:You can see the wind switch around 12 UTC (4 AM) to the NW, with winds just above the surface reaching 40-50 kts sustained.

As noted last night, this is NOT a general western WA windstorm. Moderate winds will be limited to the area south of Puget Sound.

The next issue is the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Considering the track of the low the westerly surge will probably be weaker...but it still will happen. But the low has to get past us first. Watch the pressure down the Strait....you want to see the pressure at Quillayute rise significantly against Bellingham. It should all start happening during the next few hours...but again, this won't be one of the major westerly surges that cause major damage. Just a garden variety one. Rain should decrease substantially over the next few hours.

Finally, if anyone is interested KCTS TV is repeating my weather program at 1 PM.

15 comments:

Yeah. Noticed the more southern route before i went to bed. You know know which meso model initialized the best, the TCWB, haha.

Also, picked up 3+ inches of snow NW yakima (1700ft). Thought I'd wake up to sun and a chinook wind but its still snowing huge flakes. Never seen slop over precip from the mountains make it this far east.

Down here on the south sound (Vaughn Bay, Case Inlet) the winds and surf are combining with the coincidental high tide to rearrange all the logs on the sandspit. Beachcombing later this afternoon will no doubt bring some good finds (floats, dock parts, small boats, etc.)

About 5:50 here on the ridge S of Chehalis wind started(?) whistling through bedroom window and woke me up - checked wind gauge, and saw steady at about 21 mph, probably not the highest, forgot to note pressure - back to bed. At about 8 drove south on 603, some limbs on road, mostly smaller debris, but not a lot.

its days like this am that i wish i still lived in pullman. I would rather have snow and heat that having a window blow out of my home and endangering my children and cats. I have had enough wind for awhile.. having said that I have probably jinxed us all!

And as I have that line bookmarked (or stuck in a HTML page) I forget where I got that one from ... I recall there is another page for the buoy (with a photo of the buoy on it). Searching for it might help.

Another useful data source is the radial search from a given location that gives a tabular collection of current data from the closest buoys in a given dist(ance) 250nm in this case.