Today Arapahoe's famous sons are Democratic governor Bill Ritter and Andrew Romanoff, the Democratic speaker of the house. The Republican Party is 4,000 voters away from losing its registration advantage in the county. And in 2004, Bush won by less than 3 points here, roughly half his margin across the state. Democrats now hold 8 of 11 state house seats in Arapahoe, and they are one seat away from taking over the county commission. What explains the shift? At the same time that nearby Jefferson and Douglas counties were wooing away Arapahoe's upwardly mobile families, two of the county's three military bases closed, taking with them conservative voters. And the immigrants who moved in to replace them and once caused the backlash that launched Tancredo have become an essential voting bloc. More than 100 different languages are now spoken in Aurora public schools, and the area boasts two Russian-language newspapers as well as half a dozen African grocery stores. "The county changed," explains Ritter, who grew up on a small wheat farm near Aurora. "Working-class families moved in and became the anchor to Arapahoe."

Obama leads McCain by six points, 51% to 45%. A week ago, Obama had a one-point lead, and a week before that McCain was up by two.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Colorado voters are now certain who they will vote for, up four points from a week ago. Eighteen percent (18%) say they may still change their minds, including one-third of unaffiliated voters in the state.