Sunday, 7 June 2009

It is winter not mutation that make flu worse

This news article supports my view that it is the weather that makesflu more fatal. This should include Spanish Flu in 1918 and now SwineFlu in 2008.

In UK, every winter cause 4000 fatalities so that the flu is calledWinter Flu when actually it is the same flu as in Summer. In Summer,normal flu does not kill anyone, but this Swine Flu already attacksyoung and middle aged people so severely that they had to behospitalised at the rate of 5 to 10%.

If the number of deaths in UK matches that in USA, it shows the evenwith aggressive prescription of Tamilflu, it still causeshospitalisation as severe as in USA. This invalidates my theory thatthe US medical care is severely handicapped.

In Malaysia, we should expect the same incidence. Despiteadministering Tamilflu to all suspected cases as in UK,hospitalisation rate should be between 5-10 %. This is bad indeed.

The number of swine flu cases in the UK is probably double theofficial figure, a leading bacteriologist has said.

The official total stands at well above 500 after more cases wereconfirmed on Saturday, but Prof Hugh Pennington told BBC 5 Live thereal figure is higher.

"I think it would be very reasonable to say we've got at least twiceas many cases as we know about," he said.

Meanwhile, a woman with swine flu who gave birth prematurely iscritically ill and her baby is in intensive care.

The baby was born on Monday afternoon, at 29 weeks, in the RoyalAlexandra Hospital in Paisley.

I think it would be very reasonable to say we've got at least twice asmany cases as we know aboutProf Hugh Pennington

On Sunday, a case of swine flu was confirmed at the British army'sbiggest base, Catterick Garrison, in North Yorkshire.

The soldier has "mild symptoms" after coming into contact with anotherinfected person while away from the base.

Three of his close colleagues are also displaying symptoms, but it isnot confirmed that they have the virus.

Before this latest case, the number of people with swine flu in the UKhad increased to 541 after 19 more cases were confirmed in England, aswell as 13 new ones in Scotland and one further case in NorthernIreland.

117 global deaths

Professor Pennington, a bacteriologist at Aberdeen University, saysthat because swine flu is similar to seasonal flu, there will be manymore undeclared cases.

"All the experts think that the numbers we've got are a significantunderestimate.

"In the United States, they think for every case they know about,every confirmed case, there are 20 other cases out there in thecommunity.

"I don't think we're anywhere near that, but I think it would be veryreasonable to say we've got at least twice as many cases as we knowabout, and it may be more than that."

Worldwide there have been 19,315 confirmed swine flu cases in 66countries, with 117 deaths - all in Mexico and the US.