Canadians have had a lot to think about, and occasionally vote on, during
the last two decades. Since the first Quebec referendum in 1980, Canadians
have been subjected to elections which have been promoted to 'finally'
put to rest one issue or another. The Canada-U.S. free trade agreement,
unity and Quebec separation (several times over), and what our vision
of Canada in the 21st century will be, have been just some of the dominant
themes.

So what happened on June 2, Canada's latest referendum on itself?

It was an election that mainly interested politicians and the media, although
below the surface one could hear the average Canadian slowly wake up and
begin asking questions.

The result was a answer that at once answered several questions and none
of them at the same time.

No issues grabbed the public's attention but one could argue that the
perpetual question of Canada's unity was foremost in their concerns. Canadians
reacted to the next separation vote by creating not one strong party,
but four.

The governing Liberal Party managed, barely, to hold on to majority status
in the Parliament. Coming in with 177 seats, the Liberals called an election
18 months before their mandate was up. Neither Prime Minister Jean Chrétien
or Liberal supporters could adequately explain exactly why he needed to
call an election, but perhaps it seemed a good idea at the time. The Liberals
had enjoyed wide popular support for aggressively fighting an enormous
deficit that they, and the Progressive Conservatives, were responsible
for, and had managed to escape a number of controversial issues (gun control,
gay rights, potential Quebec separation) without a serious loss in the
opinion polls.

After what was a poor performance by Chrétien, both in the debates and
the campaign trial, the Liberals barely escaped minority government status
with a 155 seat win, a tiny four more than needed.

The New Democrats managed somewhat of a comeback in this election. Based
on a strong performance in Atlantic Canada, the party moved from obscurity
to some prominence by winning 21 seats. In Canada 12 seats are needed
to be considered an official party allowing one to collect the perks that
come with that distinction. They even won a territory, the Yukon, although
it is a territory with a lone seat.

The Progressive Conservatives managed perhaps one of the finer performances,
moving from two seats to 20. While not completely able to escape the ghost
of one of the most unpopular men in Canadian history, Brian Mulroney,
the party did succeed in presenting itself as a credible choice in Quebec,
where they and the Liberals managed to knock about the Bloc Québécois
a bit.

And speaking of the separatist Bloc, led rather ineptly by Gilles Duccepe,
they managed to lose 10 seats to a combined assault by the Liberals and
the Progressive Conservatives. The hodge-podge of socialist and separatist
elements in the party seemed to be confused every day of the campaign.

The party that ESR supported did at once well and poorly. On
the positive side, the party captured three provinces, eight new seats
for a total of 60, and Official Opposition status away from the Bloc.
The party's agenda was basically the election's agenda. Preston Manning
and his party managed to hold the election in their hands, with their
agenda being the one most reacted to and discussed by Canadians and the
other parties.

The Reform Party can make a credible claim that Finance Minister Paul
Martin's work on the deficit is reminiscent of their own plans. When the
Reform Party spoke on national unity, it was the other parties that had
to react. On crime, when the party released election lists that showed
the names of mass murderers (child killer Clifford Olson and rapist-murderer
Paul Bernardo), it was they who gained credibility on the issue of crime.

But for their successes, the Reform Party also suffered a failure that
it cannot easily brush under the carpet. The party managed to not win
one seat east of the Manitoba border, losing the only one they had managed
to win in October 1993. The economic reforms of Ontario premier Mike Harris
may have contributed to Reform's poor showing, or they may have helped
Reform out. One must not ignore the fact that in many of the province's
ridings the party polled second or third. Their failure was not to shore
up the soft right wing vote in voter rich Ontario, which went to the Liberals
and Progressive Conservatives. Out of 103 seats, the Liberals won 101.

Each region of Canada can now argue that their voice will be heard in
Parliament. That will either give all Canadians a real voice in Parliament,
or it will simply mean that the voices of all will cause too much noise
for anyone to be heard. What happens will remain to be seen.

The election answered no questions. The West, although it is responsible
single-handedly for the Official Opposition, has no voice in government
apart from a few Liberal MPs led by Lloyd Axworthy. Quebec voters may
have moved towards other parties, but the sovereigntists still won the
province. Atlantic Canada voted for the New Democrats and the Progressive
Conservatives, two parties still very much in the political wilderness.

Party Results (National)

per cent of Votes

# of Seats

June 1997

October 1993

+/-

June 1997

October 1993

+/-

Liberal

38.7

41.6

-2.9 per cent

155

177

-22

Reform

19.3

18.1

+1.2 per cent

60

52

+8

Progressive Conservative

18.9

16.1

+2.8 per cent

20

2

+18

New Democrat

11

6.6

+4.4 per cent

21

9

+12

Bloc Québécois

10.7

13.9

-3.2 per cent

44

54

-10

Other

1.7

3.7

-2 per cent

1

1

-

What can Conservatives take from this election?

One could, if only one chose to play fast and loose with the facts by
combining Reform and Tory numbers, take heart in the fact that Conservatism
nearly won the election with 38.2 per cent of the vote. That could only
be claimed if one ignored the fact that the Progressive Conservatives
acted like Liberals before, during, and after the election. While their
platform did consist of some good conservative principles, it
was by and large a statement of beliefs that the Liberals would campaign
on if they took a only slight swing to the right.

Rather than dwell on what could have been had there been no Progressive
Conservative candidates, let's instead focus on what conservatives can
actually feel good about.

No matter how much Jean Chrétien calls the Reform Party extremist, either
outright or by implication, it was Preston Manning and his party set the
tone of the debate during the election. While Chrétien all but begs the
Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats to join him against extremism,
with all knowing exactly who he means, it will be the Reform Party who
will determine the face of Parliament. The Liberals look tired and have
no new ideas, and Chrétien isn't going to be around much longer.

We are the Official Opposition. Unlike the Bloc Québécois before
us, we actually have a constructive plan to help solve the ills that plague
this country. Unlike the other parties, the Reform platform actually comes
from the people themselves. Can any other party make that claim? Nope!

That platform also set the pace of the debate during the election and
it resonated even for people who did not vote for the Reform Party. Ask
someone these questions:

Do you want a smaller government? An end to overspending and red tape?

Do you want a reduction in personal taxes? A simplified tax system?

Do you want a tougher approach to crime? Reform of the parole system
and a reworking of the Young Offenders Act?

Do you want a party that believes in the importance of the family?
Zero tolerance on family violence?

Do you believe in the equality of Canadians? Do you really want some
provinces more equal than others?

Do you like the idea of a party that allows free votes in Parliament,
wants an elected Senate, and abolish patronage appointments? Abolishment
of the gold-plated pensions our politicians enjoy? Increased accountability?

You might be surprised that a lot of people walking around who voted
for the other parties will reply in the affirmative to nearly all these
questions. People of all political stripes have been affected by Reform's
presence on the national scene. A national breakthrough in the next election
is not out of the question. The platform is accepted by many of those
who actually read it.

While its popular support only grew by 1.2 per cent, it grew.
For the second straight election we polled more votes than two of the
other traditional parties, and we've only been around for ten years! The
Reform Party solidified its base of support in the West and it can build
on that. Although Reform did not win one seat outside of the West, it
placed itself in contention in a large number of Ontario seats, often
finishing second or third.

Look at it this way. In ten years the Reform Party moved from being a
small party with few members, to attracting millions of voters and gaining
Official Opposition status. Not bad at all!

What the Reform Party must remember

It was Samuel Clemens who said history doesn't repeat itself, but it
does rhyme.

I can remember racing home in January 1995 to listen to Rush Limbaugh's
broadcasts about the first 100 days of the first Republican Congress.
Heady times it was back then...until the Republicans, taking wave after
wave of assaults from all corners, became gun shy.

The defining moment of the Republicans moving towards the center, and
away from their beliefs, was the shut down of the government because of
the budget impasse several years ago. Polls showed that Americans blamed
the Republicans for the shutdown and feared their "extremism".

So what happened? Newt Gingrich plays the role of Clinton's right-hand
man pretty well today, well enough that he and Gore should think about
running on a ticket together for 2000. Though some Republicans publicly
talk ill of the party of 1997, they are not powerful enough to move the
party back to conservatism.

The same may occur here. The attacks on the Reform Party during the election
are similar to those that the Republicans heard. Pro-wealthy, racist,
anti-women, Pro-White, Pro-English...well, you've heard them all already.
Even a few days after the election, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien called
on his government, the New Democrats and the Progressive Conservatives
to band together against "extremism", the most used pejorative
when describing the Reform Party.

Manning and his Opposition must stand tough the coming years. While Reform
can't stop pieces of legislation, unlike the Republicans, they can influence
the debate. They have already influenced the platforms of two of the parties
(the Liberal's attack on the deficit and several parts of the Tory platform
were originally Reform policies) so just think what they can do now.

The victory Reform won at the polls is not a given. Any movement away
from their base will cost them seats in the next election.

The battle is yours as well. Join the party. Get involved. Help make
policy. Keep the party to the right.

Oh yeah, and enjoy the next couple of years!

Want to read more about what the election meant? Visit Quackgrass
Press for an interesting piece called What the heck happened?
for Michael Miller's interpretation of the election.