The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, November 16, 2018

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By Dan Bell

The Kiwi opens at 0.6817 against the USD.

The Pound was the big mover overnight, down around 2% to most of the majors. Cabinet has (reluctantly) approved the draft deal for a withdrawal, but the question is whether it will make it through Parliament, which at the moment is looking less and less likely. UK Brexit secretary Raab has shown he at least knows how to leave, resigning his position. This was followed by a number of resignations by more junior members. The chatter now is that there could be a no confidence vote for May, which would add even more weight to a heavy Pound.

Despite all this, the Kiwi and AUD continue to perform admirably. We had solid employment data out of Australia, with the unemployment rate coming in lower than expected at 5%. With all the uncertainty around Italy and Brexit, and presumably interest rate differentials already priced in, the antipodean currencies are appearing relatively insulated, riding high on their good data.

We have Draghi speaking overnight, but the market is now pricing in no real chance of a hike in 2019 for the ECB. Unless he says something to contradict this, and hard to imagine he will, then his speech may fall into the background somewhat.