Prospectus Hit and Run

Triple Tandem

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I've spent a good portion of the past 10 years railing against Ye Olde Statistics. Wins rely too much on the support of a pitcher's offense, defense, and the bullpen behind him to reflect his true value. Earned Run Average owes plenty to that defense and bullpen, as well as the official scorer. Runs batted in depend upon the abilities of a hitter's teammates to get on base ahead of him. Batting average isn't anywhere close to the best measure of a hitter's productivity. You've heard it all before, and doubtless you shall hear it again, for the recognition of those truths has spread to a much wider audience than it had a decade ago. Nonetheless, sometimes you just have to say, "To hell with it. Roll over Henry Chadwick, and tell Bill James the news."

They won't be going to the postseason this year, but the Dodgers enter the season's final days with a potentially historic combination of individual accomplishments at stake. Not only might they wind up featuring both the National League's Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Award winners—a rare enough combination as it is—but with a little luck, they could lay claim to the first combination of hitting and pitching Triple Crown winners in baseball history thanks to Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.

Through Sunday, Kemp leads the NL in RBI (120), is tied with Albert Pujols for the lead in home runs (37), and ranks third in batting average (.324), the latter having fallen a bit over a point due to a 1-for-5 showing against the Padres. Kershaw, after holding the Padres to two runs in 7 1/3 innings while striking out six, leads the league in ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248), and is tied with Ian Kennedy at 21 wins. As good as the 23-year-old (!) lefty was on Sunday, he turned the game over to his bullpen with one out in the eighth, his fate in someone else's hands. In situations like that, you can do worse than call upon the guy who's setting the 50-inning minimum record of 16.1 strikeouts per nine, former catcher Kenley Jansen; he mowed down Will Venable and Cameron Maybin to strand the run. The tenuous nature of an ERA award was on full display right there; had the run scored on Jansen's watch, Cliff Lee would have been able to edge past Kershaw with seven shutout innings in his final start; instead, he'll need to work into a scoreless 11th inning. With a four-run lead, the win—which Kershaw needed just as badly for this little quest, as it was his 2011 finale—was in less doubt. In case you're asking, ties count in the Triple Crown game; Carl Yastrzemski, the last hitter to win in 1967, tied with Harmon Killebrew for the league lead in home runs at 44, and nobody held it against him.

It's silly to get so suddenly wrapped up in sets of stats I'd just as soon do without, but the combination of the feat's infrequency and its connection to history is irresistible. Since 1901, hitters have won the Triple Crown just 13 times, only four of which—Ted Williams in 1947, Mickey Mantle in 1956, Frank Robinson in 1966, and Yaz in 1967—have happened since the end of World War II. Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and the aforementioned—that's not a perfect list of the greatest hitters who ever lived, but it's a lineage worth savoring. Particularly if something is happening for the first time in 44 years, or 74 years when it comes to Joe Medwick's 1937 win, the NL's last.

Despite my longstanding reservations about Ye Olde Stats, I have no problem rooting for both Kemp and Kershaw to win their necessary categories, even aside from the fact that they're both Dodgers (I'm a third-generation fan, my own allegiance going back to 1977). They've had tremendous seasons by most advanced measures. Aided by a .515/.543/1.000 tear over his last eight games and 35 plate appearances, Kemp entered Sunday leading the league in both batter WARP (7.9) and True Average (.350); he's now second in slugging percentage (.581) and fourth in on-base percentage (.400). Hell, he's second in stolen bases (40), and 12th in Equivalent Baserunning Runs (4.2) as well. Likewise, Kershaw went into Sunday leading the league in pitcher WARP (6.8) and Fair Run Average (2.88) while running second in FIP (2.39, 0.24 behind Roy Halladay), and third in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.6).

Kemp's primary competition for the MVP award is Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, whose numbers trail Kemp's despite a better hitting environment, but who has the advantage of playing a key role for a contender. Their stats through Saturday (since our stat updates including Sunday's games won't run before this publishes):

Kemp has a significant edge in playing time, and has managed better raw stats while playing in a tougher hitting environment (BPF is Batter Park factor) and facing tougher competition (Opp TAv is Opponent True Average Allowed). His defense has been nothing special according to our system, although UZR (-4) Plus/Minus (+2), and Total Zone (+9) all hold him in higher esteem; taking into account Braun's UZR (-7), Plus/Minus (-4) and Total Zone (+5), the two are basically even across four metrics. Kemp has managed that while playing the much tougher position, which carries with it more value, and he's outhit him while doing so.

Going by the "best player in the league" argument regardless of context, the data points to Kemp. I'll admit that in my hypothetical voting over the years, I've been less attached to that literal definition of Most Valuable Player than to a "best player on a contender" mindset, so I can't claim any high ground. The sabermetric consensus toward the first position is stronger than ever at the moment, and I'm more swayed by that argument than I have been in the past. If I had a vote, I'd cast it for Kemp. By that same logic, I'd lean towards Jose Bautista in the AL. The Jays slugger came into Sunday with a 1.8-WARP lead over Jacoby Ellsbury (10.4 to 8.6), though the latter narrowed that gap by smacking three home runs in a doubleheader against the Yankees, including a 14th-inning game-winner that helped the Red Sox avoid a sweep and maintain a lead in the wild-card race. I'm still inclined toward Bautista, but given Boston's tenuous grasp on a playoff spot, I'd leave the door open for Ellsbury's potential heroics until the last possible day.

As for the Cy Young race, I've touched on Kershaw's case before. Once you factor in opponent quality and ballpark, he's done better against a slightly tougher slate of hitters than Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

The amazing thing is that these two players—both drafted by now-assistant general manager Logan White—come from a team that is still one win away from guaranteeing itself a .500 finish amid a nightmare season. They are stars among scrubs, and fortunately for a team whose finances are a bloody mess, they remain affordable. Kershaw will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, Kemp for the third, and so both will almost certainly remain in Dodger blue next year.

Which certainly counts for something given how wrenching the team's 2011 campaign has been both on and off the field. Frank McCourt's divorce and financial chicanery have driven Dodger fans away in such droves that the team finished its home schedule with 627,179 fewer paying customers than last year, a drop of 17.6 percent that's projected to cost the Dodgers at least $27 million; that figure becomes higher once a good chunk of people decide not to renew their season tickets so long as McCourt litigiously clings to the reins. General manager Ned Colletti's roster mismanagement has been absolutely brutal, and rookie manager Don Mattingly has abetted Colletti's worst tendencies by giving scrubs Aaron Miles and Phony Gwynn over 800 plate appearances between them, about half in the top third of the lineup.

And yet between the baselines, the Dodgers have managed not to shame themselves. At 39-27, they have the league's fourth-best record since the All-Star break, behind only the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies. Since August 16 (selective endpoint alert) they're a league-best 25-12, including 11-6 against Milwaukee, Arizona, Atlanta, and San Francisco. Kemp and Kershaw have led the way, with youngsters such as Dee Gordon and Jerry Sands recovering from early struggles to pencil their way into next year's picture, and James Loney insinuating himself into a return as well, for better or (likely) worse. There's always danger in reading too much into late-season performance given the variable quality of competition; some teams (like last year's Dodgers under Joe Torre) become so laden with injuries, C-grade replacements, and/or apathy that they just pack it in.

It's a feather in Mattingly's cap that the Dodgers haven't resorted to that, because they had every reason to by midsummer. More than anything else, it's a testament to the team's two stars, that they do have the power to lift this sorry lot out of its bleak abyss. Were it not for Kershaw and Kemp, this Dodger season would be best remembered by getting blackout drunk. Instead, it's something special, no matter where the stats and hardware end up. Now that's value.

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Click here to see Jay's other articles.
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I don't think Kemp can make up the points in batting average, but to come this close is truly amazing. Consider that when Yastrzemeski did it in '67 there were ten teams in the AL with eight batting positions (potentially 80 competing regulars...no DH). In Kemp's 2011 NL, there are 16 teams so in theory there are 128 competing batters. Add to this the fact that in '67 shortstops and most second basemen weren't expected to hit anything, and players such as Ray Oyler, Hal Lanier and Dal Maxvill would have a hard time being regulars in today's game. Add in the fact that the talent pool of Latin players was just beginning to be tapped 45 years ago, not to mention the Far East. Ducky Medwick just had to compete with 63 other white ballplayers in 1937.
Coming this close to a Triple Crown in 2011 (not to mention 40 steals and plus defense, Matt Kemp seems to be a clear choice for MVP.

Very good point about league size and the increasing difficulty of winning the award. I cite the expansion of the leagues often when I talk about Black Ink in the Hall of Fame context, but it's obviously a factor here as well.

I ask because when you take out the ARM ratings for Kemp from the other metrics (all in agreement of around +5 runs), all the other defence metrics are in agreement that Kemp's range is below average by around 3 to 9 runs. Therefore, the WARP figure for Kemp is likely understated by about half a run, if my suspicions are right and FRAA does not include ARM ratings.

Running the numbers, and I come up with similar conclusions - about 7 runs for Kemp, second behind Francoeur with 9. I'll see about pushing an update sometime this week for outfield throwing arms in WARP.

The WARP values are driven by the way we calculate Fair Run Average, which has to do with expected levels of defensive support and the impact of sequencing. Colin explained it at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11779 but it could still stand further clarification.

They're certainly very close in pitching value - I think there's definitely enough uncertainty in how to separate pitching and fielding from each other that any of them is a wholly defensible pick as best pitcher in the league.

Offense is a little more cut and dried - Halladay has very clearly hit worse than Kershaw (close to .6 of a win, by our accounting), and has slightly under-performed him in our baserunning and fielding metrics as well. Maybe you don't want to account for that in your Cy Young voting, which is why we include PVORP and PWARP separately on the sortables -- I think it's understandable to think that Kershaw's better batting numbers don't make him a better pitcher, but they've definitely contributed something to his team and we've tried to factor that into our evaluation of total value. How to distill that into voting for awards like the Cy Young is another question altogether.

If you're the kind of person who wants to follow Kemp's progress on an at-bat by at-bat basis, True Blue LA has handy tables showing what potential combinations of at-bats and hits will put him ahead of Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes, the two men ahead of him in batting average: http://sbn.to/qmAPKZ