DRAFT LOTTERY on TSN2 at 8:30pmEST TUESDAY, MAY 17

As everyone - hopefully - knows, the Raptors finished with the 3rd worst record and therefore the third most combination of balls - 156 of the 1000. The Raptors cannot select less than 6th. Here are the odds:

If you click the link, MIN has the highest chance of getting 1st at 25% but they have a 35.7% chance of picking 4th - go figure.

Ugh. That's nuts. 2nd worst record is also most likely to get the 4th pick. 3rd and 4th worst are most likely to get the 5th pick. 5th worst most likely to get the 6th pick. The odds seem to work out from Pick No. 6 down. I guess it has something to do with the number of eligible teams. But if you finished 3rd worst, your highest odds should be getting the 3rd pick.

Ugh. That's nuts. 2nd worst record is also most likely to get the 4th pick. 3rd and 4th worst are most likely to get the 5th pick. 5th worst most likely to get the 6th pick. The odds seem to work out from Pick No. 6 down. I guess it has something to do with the number of eligible teams. But if you finished 3rd worst, your highest odds should be getting the 3rd pick.

Keep in mind everyone has a shot at picking in the top 3 and no one can slip more than 3 places.

When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks.

The lottery is only used to determined for the first 3 picks and then it is based on record. So if 6 picks 2nd and 2 picks 1st and 1 picks three, the order goes 2, 6, 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8,....., 14

The way it is set up is quite reasonable. This is the thing people need to understand: they only draw for the top three and every other position is decided by record. So the Raptors have the third best odds of getting the number one pick and the best odds of getting the number three pick. If you just look at the Raptors odds in a vacuum it seems weird because we are most likely to get the 5th pick. You need to look at it from a team by team perspective: The Raptors have the best chance of getting the third pick because they have the third most ping pong balls. The teams below the raptors have more combined ping pong balls so it is more likely that one of those teams will take the top three spots.

ex: Washington is less likely to get a top three pick than Toronto because Washington has less balls. Toronto is still probably going to end up with a pick in the range from 4-6 because the sum of the ping pong balls possessed by teams positioned below them is greater than the number of ping pong balls Toronto has. Washington has an even greater chance of ending up in the 4-6 range since They have even less balls than Toronto.

Mathematically:

#Tor>#Wash
#Tor

"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

The way it is set up is quite reasonable. This is the thing people need to understand: they only draw for the top three and every other position is decided by record. So the Raptors have the third best odds of getting the number one pick and the best odds of getting the number three pick. If you just look at the Raptors odds in a vacuum it seems weird because we are most likely to get the 5th pick. You need to look at it from a team by team perspective: The Raptors have the best chance of getting the third pick because they have the third most ping pong balls. The teams below the raptors have more combined ping pong balls so it is more likely that one of those teams will take the top three spots.

ex: Washington is less likely to get a top three pick than Toronto because Washington has less balls. Toronto is still probably going to end up with a pick in the range from 4-6 because the sum of the ping pong balls possessed by teams positioned below them is greater than the number of ping pong balls Toronto has. Washington has an even greater chance of ending up in the 4-6 range since They have even less balls than Toronto.

Mathematically:

#Tor>#Wash
#Tor

Ah, it's so hot when you speak mathematically. =)

I was waiting for someone to explain it clearly, and you saved me the need to do so.