So it's announced this morning that Dell will go private, paying 13.65 per share to existing shareholders. What puzzles me is that its stock still trades at 13.39 as of right now. Is this the most obvious sure bet or am I missing something here?

I did something similar with Ancestry.com (ACOM). Bought at $31.49 after they announced a merger at $32.00. I think the risk is that the deal may not be approved, and even if it is it can take months for the deal to go through so your money is tied up during that time.

scotto777

Senior Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 10:30a

Zulu is correct. The discount is essentially the risk that the merger is not approved or that it falls through some other way. If this were to happen, the stock would likely fall back to roughly the lower price it was trading at before the buyout talks became public.

Just because Dell has an offer for $13.65 does not mean that people will buy at $13.65. Since any money in Dell will not moved up because it's capped at $13.65, investors will try to sell their Dell shares so that they can put money where it's not capped. Only way Dell can trade higher than $13.65 is if another company is interested in buying Dell. But nobody wants to buy Dell since PC market is going downhills. Investing in a company like Qualcomm is a better investment than Dell.

RiceBOX said: who in their right mind would buy Dell for 25bil?!Closer to $20b net of net cash. They generate $4b in EBITDA and almost the same amount in operating CF...they are basically betting that tablets won't cause them to go broke in the next 5 years.

gremlins718

Senior Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 5:14p

I don't understand all that PC is dying. I am still using keyboard and mouse.

dhodson

Handsome Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 5:38p

it isnt. a tablet or whatever is really just an additional device.

winter

Cranky Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 5:52p

redking said: They're waiting 45 days to solicit competiting offers and based on the current stock price, the market doesn't feel other offers will come.

You're putting your money on hold for 45 days with the risk that the deal will fall through.Longer than 45 days - that's just the "go-shop" period when other competing offers can be made. Then it requires shareholder approval. I've seen July mentioned as an estimate for when the deal will actually close.

jugaaad

Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 6:03p

jkimcpa said: RiceBOX said: who in their right mind would buy Dell for 25bil?!Closer to $20b net of net cash. They generate $4b in EBITDA and almost the same amount in operating CF...they are basically betting that tablets won't cause them to go broke in the next 5 years.

And how much Debt and other liabilities do they have?

jugaaad

Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 6:05p

EradicateSpam said: RiceBOX said: who in their right mind would buy Dell for 25bil?!

Michael Dell, Microsoft, and private equity. Then they'll flip it in 3 - 5 years for $50B and laugh all the way to the bank.

After 5 years, they will IPO this POS with help of MS, GS and create company worth $80B (FB style).

jugaaad

Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 6:07p

jkimcpa said: RiceBOX said: who in their right mind would buy Dell for 25bil?!Closer to $20b net of net cash. They generate $4b in EBITDA and almost the same amount in operating CF...they are basically betting that tablets won't cause them to go broke in the next 5 years.

Dell pretty much gave up on tablets 2 years ago. Their notebook/desktop days are numbered.

agielchinsky

Member

posted: Feb. 5, 2013 @ 6:31p

If you don't like the stock you might want to consider buying some Dell bonds. The 25 year ones were going for about 7% today, though this is a leveraged buyout so they are loading up on debt and increasing the chances of default.

agielchinsky said: If you don't like the stock you might want to consider buying some Dell bonds. The 25 year ones were going for about 7% today, though this is a leveraged buyout so they are loading up on debt and increasing the chances of default.Careful: Dell Bonds Slump Following LBO Details"Existing bondholders are “likely to be structurally subordinate to most of the new LBO debt,” according to a CreditSights’ Jan 21 report.

hkgfnt

Senior Member - 3K

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 7:42a

gremlins718 said: I don't understand all that PC is dying. I am still using keyboard and mouse.

The tablet people are funding those articles about the PC is dying.

JTausTX

Senior Member

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 9:20a

jugaaad said: jkimcpa said: RiceBOX said: who in their right mind would buy Dell for 25bil?!Closer to $20b net of net cash. They generate $4b in EBITDA and almost the same amount in operating CF...they are basically betting that tablets won't cause them to go broke in the next 5 years.

Dell pretty much gave up on tablets 2 years ago. Their notebook/desktop days are numbered.

If Dell fails, it's because they make a shoddy product, not because the PC is dying. People still buy computers for personal use, of course (nor will they stop unless tablets become MUCH more powerful and user-friendly for gaming and productivity), but more importantly every business in the world uses desktops and laptops for their everyday business.

Athenakt

Nerdy Member

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 10:56a

I agree, the PC isn't dying quite yet.

I love my tablet; it gives me lots of freedom and is a great tool in addition to my home computer. What it doesn't give me are 24GB RAM and Terabytes of HD space.

In a few years tablets might be that high-end. But by then, PCs will have Terabytes of RAM and Petabytes of HD space with software complex enough to need those resources to run well. 3D printing, anyone?

Technologist

Ancient Lurker - 401K

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 1:39p

Athenakt said: I agree, the PC isn't dying quite yet.

I love my tablet; it gives me lots of freedom and is a great tool in addition to my home computer. What it doesn't give me are 24GB RAM and Terabytes of HD space.

In a few years tablets might be that high-end. But by then, PCs will have Terabytes of RAM and Petabytes of HD space with software complex enough to need those resources to run well. 3D printing, anyone?

Thats the problem NOW.

PC do not need TeraBytes of RAM. That is just PURE lazy PROGRAMMING. Really pisses me off all the memory hog programs running nowadays. I remember having to load different programs in different order upon boot, in order to use contiguous ram space (back when it was single digit MBs of RAM. The creation of extended memory space has been the worst thing for PCs.

Also, not everyone needs or wants 3D printing. SO the memory requirement should be in the device (printer), not in the computer.

agielchinsky said: If you don't like the stock you might want to consider buying some Dell bonds. The 25 year ones were going for about 7% today, though this is a leveraged buyout so they are loading up on debt and increasing the chances of default.

Right, with the common stock, you know it will be redeemed if deal goes through. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you have Dell bonds, its almost as if the conversion to private company is a non-event. Well, except for the fact that there is a higher chance of Dell going under if liabilities are too much for it (and so, your value of bonds will decrease)

Venturion

Senior Member - 2K

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 2:05p

CptSavAHo said: Queue stories of "I remember when 512k of RAM was $xxxx!"..... My first computer had no hard drive. You had to load the OS from a floppy.

Technologist

Ancient Lurker - 401K

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 2:33p

Venturion said: CptSavAHo said: Queue stories of "I remember when 512k of RAM was $xxxx!"..... My first computer had no hard drive. You had to load the OS from a floppy.

I love my tablet; it gives me lots of freedom and is a great tool in addition to my home computer. What it doesn't give me are 24GB RAM and Terabytes of HD space.

In a few years tablets might be that high-end. But by then, PCs will have Terabytes of RAM and Petabytes of HD space with software complex enough to need those resources to run well. 3D printing, anyone?Not everyone is a torrenter. However the computers are so strong these days there is no need to upgrade for a while. I upgraded to a touch screen all in one with windows 8 and it's a POS. I definitely see PCs making a decline, but servers/business machines will chug along.

dpid

Ancient Member

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 3:43p

jkimcpa said: Athenakt said: I agree, the PC isn't dying quite yet.

I love my tablet; it gives me lots of freedom and is a great tool in addition to my home computer. What it doesn't give me are 24GB RAM and Terabytes of HD space.

In a few years tablets might be that high-end. But by then, PCs will have Terabytes of RAM and Petabytes of HD space with software complex enough to need those resources to run well. 3D printing, anyone?Not everyone is a torrenter. However the computers are so strong these days there is no need to upgrade for a while. I upgraded to a touch screen all in one with windows 8 and it's a POS. I definitely see PCs making a decline, but servers/business machines will chug along.

Yep, the companies that are in the cloud (AWS, Google, MS, Rackspace, et al) are the ones that will be buying boatloads of servers as Cloud ramps up. Those hardware companies that cater to consumers will be decimated as tablets could do everything 75% population needs to do, keep in mind that the pie is shrinking in PCs, so to fight over smaller growth isn't feasible for large companies, hence, Dell and HP trying hard to switch from consumers to business support.

I love my tablet; it gives me lots of freedom and is a great tool in addition to my home computer. What it doesn't give me are 24GB RAM and Terabytes of HD space.

In a few years tablets might be that high-end. But by then, PCs will have Terabytes of RAM and Petabytes of HD space with software complex enough to need those resources to run well. 3D printing, anyone?

Thats the problem NOW.

PC do not need TeraBytes of RAM. That is just PURE lazy PROGRAMMING. Really pisses me off all the memory hog programs running nowadays. I remember having to load different programs in different order upon boot, in order to use contiguous ram space (back when it was single digit MBs of RAM. The creation of extended memory space has been the worst thing for PCs.

Also, not everyone needs or wants 3D printing. SO the memory requirement should be in the device (printer), not in the computer.

I had that mentality 10 years ago about memory management. I took pride in writing code that was concise, elegant, and used the least amount of memory. I realize now it isn't a top priority of many developers and have realloc my priorities.

Venturion said: CptSavAHo said: Queue stories of "I remember when 512k of RAM was $xxxx!"..... My first computer had no hard drive. You had to load the OS from a floppy.

Now your hard drive is pure gold!

Venturion

Senior Member - 2K

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 4:47p

scottybweyy said: Venturion said: CptSavAHo said: Queue stories of "I remember when 512k of RAM was $xxxx!"..... My first computer had no hard drive. You had to load the OS from a floppy.Now your hard drive is pure gold! Nah.. I took the profit from trading 2,500+ oz and turned it into 530 H.P.

lonestarguy

Enthusiastic Member

posted: Feb. 6, 2013 @ 5:40p

jd2010 said: (13.65-13.39)/13.65 = ~2% gain

Itll take 6 months to close, minus commissions, means youll end up with about 3.5% IRR. Thats why its not at 13.65

You forgot dividends. They should be added to buy/sell calculations.

Skipping 14 Messages...

Spac3d

The Great Pumpkin

posted: Feb. 9, 2013 @ 11:52a

After this week's Barrons article, this seems solid. - Right time to buy, -30% appreciation over past 12 months- $5B in cash outstanding on $23B market cap- Underwritten LBO annualized return is 30% assuming no increase in OP earnings- Current P/E is 8

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