Weather Models Cold Active Long Range

Weather Models Cold Active Long Range

Today’s weather models have come closer together on the arrival of cold air beginning on Wednesday as a cold front passes. Once that front goes by both the GFS & European model show the front slowing down an stalling out. The GFS was the first to show this idea a few days ago before abandoning it and then coming back westward. First though is the cold front that approaches Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

GFS MODEL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

Both the European and the GFS are on point with this front. There is a chance that for areas west and north of the coast that the rain could end as some sleet or wet snow Wednesday morning. After that it gets complicated a bit. While the front sits to our south a wave develops along the front and moves northeastward Thursday night and Friday.

WEATHER MODELS GFS FRIDAY DECEMBER 8

Notice a second low is dropping southeastward into NW Missouri at the same time. This is a reflection of a strong upper air trough that is digging southeastward from Canada. The problem here is that the systems are far enough apart that they basically behave as separate entities. The wave will move out ahead of the energy which would prevent this from becoming anything major.

GFS UPPER AIR FRIDAY MORNING DECEMBER 8

The European model is slower with that upstream energy by about 24 hours as it swings that system around on Saturday. This would imply a second low will develop nearby on Sunday and the European has a second round of precipitation which would likely be snow.

The GFS has the same idea except that it is 24 hours faster and moves that energy through on Saturday but the primary low passes to our north with a weak secondary just offshore.

WEATHER MODELS GFS SATURDAY MORNING 12/9/2017

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN MODEL SUNDAY MORNING 12/9/2017

Due to the speed differences in the energy the models are 24 hours apart here with the European slower. We will have to rectify which model has the better handle here on the speed of that second trough digging southeastward from Canada to determine which model has the better handle on this overall. The European snow forecast maps below are courtesy of Weather.US

The weather model snow forecast maps from different sources all come up with their snow amounts in different ways. This seems to use conservative methods to come up with numbers which is probably the better way to go with these maps since they are usually not very reliable. I think the best way to look at these maps is to use them as a judge as where snow might fall and not necessarily the amounts since that is really a short term forecast problem and not a long term one.

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