The Reopening of the Irish Question

The only land border between the United Kingdom and the rest of the European Union winds for 500 kilometers through the green fields and gentle hills of the Irish countryside. The border has a tragic past, a tranquil present—and the potential to shape the future of Brexit.

During the conflicts between Republicans and Unionists, its 200 crossing points saw countless clashes and frequent deaths. Since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the border has been completely open. If you drive from Northern Ireland into the Irish Republic, the only obvious indications that you have entered another country are that kilometers replace miles on road signs, and post boxes are green instead of red. The unrestricted flow of trade and people is one of the great benefits of two decades of peace. Nobody wants to return to the era of border posts, far less the paraphernalia of passport checks and customs buildings.

The question is: How can an open border survive Brexit?

The EU’s answer is that Northern Ireland must remain part of the EU customs union, and abide by all the EU’s current and future business regulations. Otherwise, border posts will have be revived.

The UK rejects this view, for it would leave Britain with two choices, both of which are unacceptable.

Option 1: The whole of the UK remains in the customs union and continues to abide by many, if not all, single market rules. This would deny the UK the right to conclude new trade deals with the rest of the world; and it would require UK businesses to obey EU regulations, which the UK will no longer have any say in crafting. In the vivid language of Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the keenest pro-Brexit MPs, Britain would become a “vassal state.”

Option 2: Mainland Britain leaves the customs union and single market completely, but accepts a different status for Northern Ireland, which would remain within the EU’s orbit, applying customs union and single market rules. This would require trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Theresa May, Britain’s Prime Minister has ruled this out—not least because anything that loosened the bonds that bind the UK together would be anathema to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, whose support she needs to remain in power in Westminster.

British ministers say modern technology can square the circle, allowing trade across the border to be regulated by smart electronics rather than customs officers at crossing points. The EU rejects this as a pipedream.

Twice this issue has come close to derailing the Brexit negotiations—last December (ahead of the agreement to embark on the negotiations about transition) and last month (when the transition agreement was concluded). Both times a fudged form of words was agreed. There would be no hard border, but no agreement was reached on what this meant.

The danger for the UK is that the EU will reject a third fudged agreement and insist that the price of an open-border deal will be for either Northern Ireland or the whole of the UK to remain within the customs union (or something that looks very much like it).

What then? At Westminster, a drama is underway that might yet grow into a crisis. Already, twenty-four Conservative peers have voted with the opposition to defeat ministers in the House of Lords by demanding a commitment for the UK to maintain a customs union relationship with the EU.

Defeat in the Lords is not fatal to the government. Peers are not democratically elected. Except in very rare circumstances, disputes between the two Houses of Parliament end up with unelected peers giving way to elected MPs.

However, rebel Conservative MPs in the House of Commons have tabled amendments to two Brexit-related bills to maintain a customs union relationship with the EU after Brexit. These votes are likely in the next few weeks. They are likely to be very close. There is a real prospect of government defeats.

How bad would that be for Mrs. May? Terrible, if she decides to stake her premiership on the votes. But she has an alternative. She could regard defeats in the Commons as a blessing in disguise. Keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU would go some way to keeping the Irish border open. It could lead to a Brexit agreement that the EU Council, and the British and European Parliaments, are willing to accept—even if many pro-Brexit Conservative MPs dislike it.

This course, however, is not without peril. A wider agreement will be needed if the Irish border is to remain fully open. The UK will need to accept at least some of the single market rules, both on business regulations and on freedom of movement. A customs union deal alone would take UK-EU relations only halfway across the road from an economically damaging hard Brexit to a soft, open-border Brexit. And we all know that stopping halfway across a busy road is seldom a good idea.

If the UK does complete that crossing, ardent Brexiteers will complain that the essence of Brexit has been lost, for the UK will not have full control over its own affairs. In the opposite corner, pro-EU enthusiasts will argue that Brexit had become pointless and that the UK should remain in the EU with a voice in its decisions. The one thing on which both sides will agree is that such an outcome is far from perfect. But as things stand now, a perfect Brexit of any sort looks beyond reach.

The EU was born to bring peace to Europe, a continent mostly at war throughout history, including her islands, small and large.
It is true that EU "sounds so nice" but it was not "formed to take advantage of the US”. It was formed by the US but shaped by the perennial desire for peace of her peoples, always postponed until the next peace treaty, after more devastating wars.
It was hope that the resolution of the Irish Question was forever. It would be an example of liberal democracies moving into an era of peace. It is also hopefully peace from the bottom to the top, people refusing to reignite past cycles of violence.
It would also be an example for the many smoldering conflicts which have shaped Europe for millennia, many Questions burning right now, too many to list here.
Brexit was supposed to bring mass celebrations of an NHS offering more, now that the tens of billions are repatriated, more of everything.
No longer a “vassal state” the UK was supposed to turn to the world (the back turned towards France, and the maligned Brussels), a world ready for trade agreements without free movement of people. Not surprisingly, the 2018 CHOGM was not the celebration of the UK turning towards the Commonwealth of Nations, 2.4 billion people, 15 trillion PPP GDP, thirsty of exchanging whatever for financial and insurance services. The Heads of Government didn’t even show solidarity with the UK for the Skripal case and Syria intervention; no mentioning of leaving SCO to join a newly minted common market.
All these promises didn’t materialize, but what is more surprising is that such an important Question was not really central to the Brexit public discussion.
All these facts, broken promises and critical aspects ignored, raise the question of how a democracy can revert quickly a critical decision based on false premises. Add the Russian trolls and Cambridge Analytica targeted advertising, how much more is needed to rerun the referendum?
Remember the mass popular celebrations throughout Europe, in August of 1914, Paris, London, Vienna, St. Petersburg, Berlin and Munich?
That was a huge popular referendum, one they couldn’t take back. Peoples make mistakes, consequences always come later!

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