For now, at least, Hunter Pence is in a win-win situation

No matter what an arbitration panel rules, Hunter Pence will have reason to smile.

Hunter Pence goes to arbitration on Friday, which means one of two outcomes.

He’ll strike it rich. Or he’ll strike it richer.

Pence will receive $6.9 million this season if he wins, $5.15 million if he has to settle for the consolation prize from a panel of arbitrators. He’ll turn 28 in April, and the Astros have made it clear they’re looking for Pence to make a difference that transcends the .282 batting average, 25 home runs, 91 runs batted in and 18 stolen bases he had in 2010.

General manager Ed Wade and manager Brad Mills see Pence as somebody who can help establish a culture for a team in transition. Pence is a hard-nosed, old-school, no-excuses player a manager can count on putting into the lineup day after day after day. He has played 472 out of a possible 485 games the past three seasons, and he has been consistent and productive.

His batting averages the past thee seasons: .269, .282, .282. His home run totals: 25, 25, 25. His RBI totals: 83, 72, 91. His slugging averages: .466, .472, .461. In other words, he’s as dependable as Mom’s comfort food. Pence could stand to draw more walks (one every 14.7 plate appearnaces), no doubt, but the closest thing to a perfect player on record is currently trying to wrestle a reported $300 million from the Cardinals over 10 years.

When the Astros took Pence in the second round of the 2004 draft, they’d have been foolish not to sign on for the .287 average, 92 homers and 315 runs batted in he has produced so far in has career. Sifting through every player in Astros history through their age-27 season, Pence ranks eighth in batting, seventh in homers, 11th in RBI, fourth in slugging (.481). In short, he’s been one of the most productive 20-something players in the franchise’s 49-season history.

Let’s take a look at how he stacks up with the Astros’ top home run hitters through age 27:

Player, Years

Avg.

HR

RBI

OPS+

Jimmy Wynn, 1963-69

.259

145

441

138

Cesar Cedeno, 1970-78

.291

142

617

142

Lance Berkman, 1999-03

.300

126

429

143

Jeff Bagwell, 1991-95

.306

113

469

152

Glenn Davis, 1984-88

.262

110

365

124

Richard Hidalgo, 1997-2002

.273

102

347

111

Hunter Pence, 2007-10

.287

92

315

115

Doug Rader, 1967-72

.253

78

385

105

Joe Morgan, 1963-71

.263

61

278

121

Source: baseball-reference.com research.

(OPS+ is a player’s on-base-plus-slugging, adjusted for ballpark and league effects, with 100 signifying the league average. An OPS+ of 110 is 10 percent above the league average, with a 90 is 10 percent below the league average.)

Pence is in the midst of what should be the prime of his career, and he’s arbitration-eligible for two more seasons. Based on what the players who came before Pence have done, what is it reasonable to expect of him in the years to come?

Jimmy Wynn, shown here in his 1964 Topps baseball card, got chosen to two All-Star teams in his 20s and two in his 30s.

Jimmy Wynn, whose numbers got weighed down playing much of his career in the pitcher-friendly Astrodome and an era skewed against offense, batted .243 with 146 homers and 523 RBI after his age-27 season. Cesar Cedeno batted .276 with only 57 homers and 359 RBI the rest of his career; the last of his four All-Star game selections came when he was 25. Jeff Bagwell put the finishing touches on a career worthy of Hall of Fame enshrinement — if the voters go by the numbers instead of making judgment calls about the steroid era: .293, 336 homers, 1,060 RBI after his age-27 season. Lance Berkman is at .293, 201 homers, and 670 RBI and counting after 27. Glenn Davis bashed a career-high 34 homers in his age-28 season, only to have his career go into a sinkhole. His post-27 numbers, even with that 34-homer bump in 1989: .256, 80, 238.

Astros fans can only wonder what would have been if Joe Morgan, shown here in his 1970 Topps card, hadn't been sent off to Cincinnati to join the Big Red Machine.

Richard Hidalgo fizzled to a .262 average, 69 homers and 213 RBI the rest of his career. Doug Rader, a five-time Gold Glove third baseman, went on to hit .249 with 77 homers and 337 RBI after that age-27 season. As for Joe Morgan, well, Astros fans have suffered enough at all the re-hashings of the disastrous trade that made turned Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine into a team for the ages. The Cliff’s Notes version is that Morgan, whom the Astros traded right after his age-27 season, batted .276 with 206 homers, 855 RBI, 494 stolen bases, 1,119 runs scored, eight All-Star appearances, two Most Valuable Player Awards and five Gold Gloves the rest of his career.

A breakdown of those eight players shows three whose careers continued to ascend: Morgan, Bagwell and Berkman. Wynn and Rader had fairly normal decline paths. Cedeno, Hidalgo and Davis had steep falls.

The Astros picked just the right time to trade Glenn Davis, shown in this 1986 Donruss card.

Billed by Leo Durocher as the best talent to wear spikes since Willie Mays, Cedeno had his best seasons at 22 and 23. Cedeno settled in as something short of a superstar, broke his ankle during the 1980 National League Championship Series (at 29) and wasn’t close to the same after that. Hidalgo bashed 44 homers at 25, went deep only 34 times the ensuing two seasons, and played his last big-league game at 30. A soon-to-be-30 Davis appeared to be going strong enough for the Orioles to trade Curt Shilling, Steve Finley and Pete Harnish before the 1991 season. A stretched spinal accessory nerve in the neck caused the muscles in Davis’ right shoulder to weaken, and his career ended in 1993 with a .177, one-homer, nine-RBI, 113-at-bat whimper.

Davis also happens to be the most similar hitter of the bunch to Pence — a free-swinging, right-handed power hitter. Pence isn’t in the class of an-in-the-prime-Davis in terms of sheer power but has a considerable speed advantage.

And no health issues.

Of course, Davis once appeared indestructible, too, averaging 155 games from 1986-89.

Given Pence’s work ethic, given his affinity for the weight room, given his track record of consistency, the Astros have ample reason to expect plenty of productive years to come. He’s doing everything in his power to maximize his chances of a long and prosperous career, but there are no money-back guarantees.