Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Rafael becomes a hurricaneHurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.

Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next weekMost of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.

Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO NAGUABO AND FAJARDO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHMODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVENORTHEAST ACROSS THESE AND THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES.THISADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RUNOFF AND RAPID RISES IN SMALLSTREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS... ATLEAST UNTIL 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

Details/Specifics of Change:Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager andsounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities thenoise inGOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomalylevels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizesthelong term continuity of the GOES constellation.

On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back intothe GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 datastream. Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR datastreams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift ofEarth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to theGOES-13position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will begenerated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINIand Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-Eastcoverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of theSATEPSDISTservers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days willnot be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite locationdays have passed: - ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm) - GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product) - GEO-SST (No NETCDF format) - GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)

RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWSimmediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver ofGOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at aposition of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standbyuntil further notice.

The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires

What is different about this year? It's as if all of a sudden we got a ton of rain in the beginning, then it's slowly been tapering off through the year. IAH is now below normal for rainfall this year despite being above normal ever since January.

I guess we'll have to see what the next month or so brings, I don't like the looks of this. Far too little rain the past few weeks.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling that N-G was right, we're in for a rough, multi-year dry period.

Details/Specifics of Change:Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager andsounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities thenoise inGOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomalylevels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizesthelong term continuity of the GOES constellation.

On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back intothe GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 datastream. Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR datastreams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift ofEarth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to theGOES-13position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will begenerated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINIand Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-Eastcoverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of theSATEPSDISTservers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days willnot be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite locationdays have passed: - ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm) - GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product) - GEO-SST (No NETCDF format) - GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)

RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWSimmediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver ofGOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at aposition of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standbyuntil further notice.

Quoting RitaEvac:Not sure what the hell is going on, but if we don't get rains this fall/winter/spring, it's gonna be doom for TX again

What is different about this year? It's as if all of a sudden we got a ton of rain in the beginning, then it's slowly been tapering off through the year. IAH is now below normal for rainfall this year despite being above normal ever since January.

I guess we'll have to see what the next month or so brings, I don't like the looks of this. Far too little rain the past few weeks.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling that N-G was right, we're in for a rough, multi-year dry period.

STRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION.GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIALINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDSARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTERAND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIAPENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEARAND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING ISFORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION INABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

AFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWEDDOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13KNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLYANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAULWILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH ANADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATEDSOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEPPAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FORTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

GIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELYBE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATERTODAY.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWEDDOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ONTHE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THEWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANEWARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THENORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTEDLATE WEDNESDAY.

PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVEDECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS ACATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOWIN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIAPENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCESIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN ANDCENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEARTHE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVEWAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTCOAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESESWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTCONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY TRANSITIONED FROM ACENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO AN EYE PATTERN...WITH A RECENT MICROWAVEPASS SHOWING A SOLID INNER CORE. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SOMESTRENGTHENING...BUT THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERSREPORTED THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAD COME DOWN A BITDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PLANE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIALINTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KT...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THANAVERAGE GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND. A NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL BEIN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INTENSITY. HOWEVER...SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET DUE TO GRADUALLYCOOLING WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ISAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE LGEM MODEL BUT A BIT BELOWTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS EXTRATROPICALTRANSITION BETWEEN 24-36H DUE TO INTERACTION OF RAFAEL WITH A COLDFRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING A BIT LEFTOF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 020/23. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO PREDICTED STEERING FLOW WITH THEHURRICANE MOVING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ATROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TOTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND TO MOVE FASTER. MODELGUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND EVEN THE SPEEDDIFFERENCES ARE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECASTCYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD THECONSENSUS...BUT STILL LIES ON THE SPEEDIER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FORTHE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELSSUGGEST THAT POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL WILL COMPLETE A LARGE CYCLONICLOOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

Quoting Grothar:I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.

That anomaly has been getting bigger every year. At this rate the idea of a cat 3 / 4 type major all the way to the New England coast will become more of a decadal thing instead of a once per century thing...

Quoting Neapolitan:Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:

I take the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks with a grain of salt. They change like the wind. Just yesterday or the day prior it represented below average temps for a good portion of the nation east of the MS river. But, for the time being, it looks toasty for the CONUS with the exception of the Pac. NW.

Quoting TomTaylor:True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.

This is true, but I was referring to each individual cycle of the GFS within 120 hours (wasn't really trying to correlate it to the long range).

Quoting TomTaylor:True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.

i see mid to long term getting worse in recent years!jk its all just noise.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:Brian McNoldy posted an image comparing the average model error for all four cycles of the GFS. Contrary to popular belief, the 06z and 18z runs are not all that unreliable. In fact, there is barely any difference.

True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.

Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.

I'm so happy for you. The rains came and the winds did no significant damage. Can't ask for more than that!

That is a pretty scary map Grothar. If it's able to punch all the way thru the arctic. I guess it's anyone's prediction as to the global weather effects. Maybe not Jurassic Park but some big changes. Talk about a lot of water vapor in the air.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ MEANDERS EAST INTO SOUTHERN CENTRALAMERICA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A LOW IS TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER THESOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 54-60 HRS...WITH CIRCULATION FORECASTTO DRAW THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE BASIN LATER IN THE CYCLE.

Many fishing villages along hundreds of miles of spectacular coastline are in my prayers...villages like San Juanito, Guerro Niegro, as well as the municipal seat of Ciudad Constitution...further inland. These towns look like they will bear the brunt of Paul as he climbs the Baja Penninsula. Let's hope the government of Mexico is as quick to help rebuild these beautiful coastline towns as quickly as they rebuild tourist areas like Cabo, Cozumel, and Cancun...to name a few.

And I am very glad that Rafe and Paul are far away from the Bahamas....

The track Paul is taking over Baja is IMO just about as bad as it gets... the core is over land, meaning severe rainfall events over the normally desert-like mountainous spine of the peninsula, meaning potential for flash flooding in valleys and ravines is very high. When you add in the fact that many of the human settlements are in those valleys and ravines, the potential for disaster skyrockets.

I sure hope everybody is able to stay safe there over the next 24 - 36 hours...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING INMOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURESEXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHOF INTERSTATE 81...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...PATCHYFROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS ANDDRAINAGES.

Quoting Neapolitan:Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:

That will not be good. I am back in drought even though drought monitor map not showing it, must be on a micro scale then. Because I noticed the detention ponds down a foot or more which is a tale tell sign, grass is stressed like summer time which is crazy for middle of October (watered the front yard last evening which is unheard of in October, never water in October)and crape myrtles are drooping as if during summer time.

Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...