With the surge of near-record warmth expected in the E and SE US, and the turn to cold across the Northern Plains and Western US, the DJF 17/18 US temperature anomaly map may turn out above average in many places except for the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.

If you want to monitor the threat of cold for the Eastern US, look to the trends in the EPO more so than the trends in the NAO. A coupled -EPO/-NAO increase threats for the Midwest and SE US. More mixed in New England depending on the relative strengths. twitter.com/MJVentrice/sta…

Keep an eye on the EPO forecast in the 11-15d. Some interesting tail members in there dropping down to -3 sigma. pic.twitter.com/UYlZ1fEllg