The pace of U.S. small business employment growth has slowed in North Texas and across the nation, but Dallas-Fort Worth remained the No. 1 metropolitan area in December, according to the Paychex/IHS Small Business Jobs Index released today.

Dallas-Fort Worth took the top spot despite a 0.64 percent decline from November to December.

Texas’ small business job growth ended 2014 as No. 2 after Washington — both with an index score of more than 102.

Nationally, the pace of job growth has slowed more in the last three months (down 0.28 percent), compared with a drop of 0.18 percent over the last 12 months, according to the Paychex/IHS index.

“As we begin the New Year, it will be interesting to see the impact falling energy prices and the power shift in Washington have on the country’s small businesses in the months ahead,” Paychex CEO Martin Mucci said in a statement.

The Paychex/IHS index analyzes job growth in the 20 most populated states and 20 most populated metro areas. Launched last April by payroll and benefits provider Paychex Inc. and market research firm IHS, the index is based on aggregated data from about 350,000 U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees.

1. Minimum wage: The average worker may earn a bigger paychecks. Forty-five percent of U.S. employers expect to raise the hourly minimum wage in 2015. Of those employers, half will raise it by $2 or more and one-third will raise it by $3 or more. Sixty-nine percent said they’ll pay $10 or more an hour, 39 percent will pay $12 or more and 18 percent will pay $15 or more.

2. Small business: While still cautious about expanding staff, small companies plan to hire extra people to meet an expected increase in demand. Twenty-nine percent of businesses with 250 or fewer employees will add full-time, permanent employees, up from 22 percent last year. Seven percent will cut staff, an improvement from 9 percent last year.

3. Higher education requirements: As jobs become more complex and data-driven, hiring managers are adjusting job requirements. Thirty-seven percent of companies say they’re hiring workers with college degrees for jobs that had been held by workers with high school diplomas. Twenty-eight percent are hiring workers with master’s degrees for positions that had been held by workers with bachelor’s degrees.

4. Part-time jobs: Twenty-three percent of employers plan to recruit part-time workers over the next 12 months, up from 17 percent last year.

5. Cubicle walls crumble: What makes the most productive and collaborative workplace is constantly evolving. Thirteen percent of companies will implement an open-space floor plan with no cubicle walls in 2015.

After working on contract, Stephanie Henkel became a full-time employee of Children’s Health System of Texas in March. Her hourly pay increased, her benefits improved and she joined the company’s 401k program. (Michael Ainsworth/The Dallas Morning News)

Nationally, 36 percent of employers expect to add full-time, permanent employees in 2015, up from 24 percent last year and the best survey outlook since 2006. Nine percent expect to decrease staff levels (vs. 13 percent last year), 48 percent expect no change and 8 percent are unsure.

I wrote a story about the trend toward more full-time, permanent hiring in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in early November.

“The U.S. job market is turning a corner as caution gives way to confidence,” said CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson, and co-author of The Talent Equation. “The amount of companies planning to hire in 2015 is up 12 percentage points over last year, setting the stage for a more competitive environment for recruiters that may lend itself to some movement in wages.”

The South, which includes Texas, showed the most improved confidence in hiring, with the largest year-over-year increase (14 percentage points) in the share of employers planning to add full-time, permanent staff in the next year. Thirty-six percent of employers in the South and West will recruit full-time, permanent employees in 2015.

Most of the full-time, permanent hiring will occur in information technology (54 percent), financial services (42 percent), manufacturing (41 percent) and health care (38 percent). In addition, hiring for science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) jobs will continue to be strong (31 percent) over the next 12 months, up from 26 percent last year.

Hiring for jobs tied to revenue generation, innovation and customer loyalty will dominate next year, the survey shows. The top three areas for full-time, permanent hiring are: sales (36 percent); customer service (33 percent); and information technology (26 percent).

Companies also expect to hire more people in emerging fields, such as cloud or mobile technology, cyber security, big data management and robotics.

But don’t expect to see temporary hiring dive because full-time, permanent hiring is up. Temporary and contract employment also is expected to increase over the next 12 months (46 percent vs. 42 percent last year) as employers struggle to fill high-demand jobs and maintain flexibility in their workforce.

Wage growth has been largely stagnant post-recession in the last few years, but salary increases, including raises for minimum wage workers, are on the horizon. Eighty-two percent of employers plan to increase compensation for existing employees vs. 73 percent last year and 64 percent will offer higher starting salaries for new employees vs. 49 percent last year.

Dallas-Fort Worth and three other Texas metro areas continued to outperform the nation in job growth in November.

The Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas continued to see the nation’s fastest growing employment among metropolitan areas for the 12 months through November, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Houston area added 125,300 jobs in that time frame, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth (111,500 jobs) and the New York area (107,900 jobs).

Overall, November employment increased in the last 12 months in 313 of the nation’s 372 metro areas, decreased in 55 areas and was unchanged in four areas.

The largest over-the-year decreases in employment occurred in The Atlantic City,
N.J., area lost the most jobs (-8,600) and saw the largest percentage decrease in employment (-6.4 percent) for the 12 months through November.

Unemployment

Unemployment rates were lower in November than a year earlier in 91 percent (341) of the nation’s metro areas, higher in 27 areas and unchanged in four, according to the BLS data. Yuma, Ariz., had the highest rate at 23.1 percent. Lincoln, Neb., had the lowest rate at 2.1 percent.

Twelve metro areas had jobless rates of at least 10 percent and 147 areas had rates of less than 5 percent. The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in November.

Note: None of the U.S. or local employment and unemployment numbers have been adjusted for seasonal variations.

A drilling rig near Kennedy, Texas. The oil and gas energy drives much of the state's economic growth. (AP Photo/ Eric Gay/File)

Texas continued to add jobs at a steady pace in November, but the energy industry posted its first monthly decline in a year, indicating that low oil prices could be affecting the state’s economy and employment.

The state added 34,800 seasonally adjusted jobs last month, according to data released today by the Texas Workforce Commission. It also set another record for generating 441,200 jobs over the last 12 months. The Texas Workforce Commission also revised October’s employment gain down to 34,200 from an initial 35,200.

The Texas seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in November from 5.1 percent in October and 6.1 percent a year ago.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area’s jobless rate was 4.6 percent in November. The Midland area had the lowest November rate in the state at 2.3 percent. The McAllen-Edinburg-Mission area had the highest at 8.2 percent. Local numbers are not seasonally adjusted.

“The Texas economy continued its record-breaking expansion, providing job opportunities across a wide range of industries,” Texas Workforce Commission chairman Andres Alcantar said in a statement.

UPDATED AT 12:30 P.M.: But Texas’ November job growth rank declined to No. 3 after California (90,100) and Florida (41,900). Texas’ job growth rate for the last 12 months also dropped from first place to second with 3.9 percent. North Dakota is first with 4.8 percent.

UPDATED AT 12:30 P.M.: Overall, employment increased in 37 states plus Washington, D.C., decreased in 12 states and was unchanged in Idaho.

Seven of Texas’ 11 major industry groups added jobs in November, led by 13,500 jobs in professional and business services. In addition, education and health services added 7,200 jobs and leisure and hospitality added 6,000 jobs, manufacturing gained 4,500 and construction added 3,600.

Energy was one of the four industries to see jobs decline in November, losing 2,300 jobs. The price of crude oil has fallen by nearly in half since June, which benefits consumers in terms of lower gasoline and other energy costs, but can hurt oil-related companies.

Still, Texas’ overall energy industry job count at 323,800 people is near its all time high of 326,100 reached in October.

Also last month, trade, transportation and utilities lost 2,500 jobs, and financial services and other services each lost 700 jobs.

ADP forecast that Texas added 29,700 private-sector jobs in November. Private-sector jobs usually account for the lion’s share of all jobs created each month.

ADP and Moody’s Analytics Inc. forecast job growth for 29 states plus Washington, D.C. Each month usually is a competition between Texas, California and Florida to see who leads in job creation.

ADP and Moody’s numbers are in advance of the official government employment numbers for the private and public sector in November, which will be released on Dec 19.

For October, ADP had predicted that Texas would add 30,450 private-sector jobs. The state ended up added 35,200 private- and public-sector jobs last month. Texas had added an average of more than 38,000 jobs a month for the first 10 months of this year.

“In something of a surprise, New York was the only one of the large states with job gains greater than October,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains in Texas were roughly flat, while jobs added in California and Florida were down significantly. Despite this, New York and the Northeast generally continue to lag in total jobs added and growth rate.”

ADP estimates the nation’s South region, which includes Texas, added the most jobs. (See chart above.)

In Texas, ADP estimates that service industry jobs accounted for nearly three quarters of the private-sector gain in November. It expects trade, transportation and utilities to see the biggest gain with 7,000 jobs, followed by: energy and construction (6,800 jobs); professional and business services (3,800 jobs); and manufacturing (1,200 jobs).

Dallas-Fort Worth employers aren’t quite as gung ho about hiring in the January-March period as they were about the current quarter, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today.

The employment outlook is quite a change from three months ago, when D-FW employers were “bullish” on hiring and the region posted the best employment outlook among the nation’s metropolitan areas. The North Texas forecast also was worse than estimates for Texas and nationwide.

Twenty-two percent of the companies surveyed plan to hire in first quarter 2015, while 5 percent expect to reduce staff, yielding a net employment outlook of 17 percent. The hiring outlook is down from 27 percent for the current quarter and 19 percent for first quarter 2014.

Matt Bomberger, a managing director for ManpowerGroup’s Experis brand specializing in IT, engineering and finance, noted several reasons for the D-FW decline:

* The first-quarter forecast typically dips due to seasonal weakness after the holidays.

* The same business executive is not always interviewed from quarter to quarter, which could affect answers.

* The D-FW area has seen an uptick in hiring over the last nine months, “so those positions were filled,” he said.

North Texas industries where Manpower does not expect to see increased hiring in the first quarter are: durable goods manufacturing, government, and wholesale and retail trade. Technology is an exception: Bomberger expects 19 net employment growth for the Dallas-Fort Worth IT market in 2015.

Across Texas, 23 percent of companies plan to hire and 3 percent plan to cut staff early next year, yielding a net employment outlook of 20 percent. That outlook is the same as the current quarter and up from a year ago.

Nationwide, 19 percent of companies surveyed plan to hire and 6 percent expect to cut staff early next year for a net employment outlook of 16 percent. The hiring outlook is about the same as the current quarter and up slightly from a year ago.

Manpower surveyed more than 18,000 employers across the United States.

The Dallas area remains the nation’s top metro area for small business job growth, according to the latest Paychex/IHS Small Business Jobs Index released today.

Dallas ranked No. 1 in November among the nation’s 20 largest metro areas for the second straight month and for five of the last six months. Houston was No. 2.

Texas ranked No. 2 for small business employment. California remained No. 1 despite having one of the biggest declines in the last 12-months (-0.92 percent). Among the 20 metro areas, only New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts scored below 100 on the index in November. (See chart above.)

Nationally, the index started 2014 off strong, but dropped 0.11 percent in November to 100.73 — its lowest level in a year. The index also is down 0.25 percent over the last three months, but it’s slightly ahead of a year earlier, up 0.07 percent. (See graph below.)

Despite strong performance in some metro areas, small business employment across the country “continues to grow, but at a moderate pace, reflecting levels seen since 2012,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist for IHS.

Payroll and benefits provider Paychex and data analytics firm IHS launched the index in April. The index analyzes changes in existing stores and year-over-year employee counts to track small business employment trends based on real small business payroll data from Paychex clients — about 350,000 businesses with fewer than 50 workers.

Employers statewide have added 30,000 or more seasonally adjusted jobs every month so far this year. The government also revised September’s employment number up to 37,400 jobs, from an initial 34,600.

Texas ranked No. 2, after California’s 41,500 new jobs, last month. However, the state still leads the nation for its record 421,900 jobs added over the last 12 months.

Overall, October employment increased in 38 states and decreased in 12 states plus Washington, D.C., according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nevada saw the largest monthly job loss (-7,300).

Texas’ unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent in October from 5.2 percent in September. The U.S. rate was 5.8 percent last month.

The Dallas-Fort Worth unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in October. The Midland area had the lowest rate of 2.5 percent. The McAllen-Edinburg-Mission area had the highest monthly rate of 7.9 percent. None of the local rates have been adjusted for seasonal variations.

Overall, 18 of Texas’ 25 major metropolitan areas have unemployment rates below 5 percent, which is considered full employment.

Nationally, 34 states plus Washington, D.C., saw jobless rates decline last month, five states saw higher rates and 11 states saw no change, according to BLS data. Georgia had the highest unemployment rate in October (7.7 percent). North Dakota had the lowest rate (2.8 percent).

“We have witnessed the Texas economy growing stronger and stronger over the last several years,” Texas Workforce Commission chairman Andres Alcantar said in a statement. “The diversity of our growing industries, businesses and skilled workers, has made for a prosperous Texas.”

Three industries lost jobs in October: professional and business services (-7,400 jobs), government (-3,700 jobs) and information services (-1,600 jobs).

All 11 industry groups saw job gains over the last 12 months, led by the energy industry, with an 11.3 percent annual growth rate. Construction employment grew at a 6.2 percent annual pace. Overall, seven industry groups have seen growth of 3.5 percent or higher over the last 12 months.

Texas private employers added 30,450 jobs last month, ADP estimated. Private-sector jobs usually account for the lion’s share of all jobs created each month.

That’s up from the 29,400 jobs that ADP forecast for Texas in September, when the state ranked No. 1 among the 29 states plus Washington, D.C.tracked by ADP and Moody’s Analytics Inc. In October, California ranked No. 1, with 32,760 new jobs. Each month usually is a competition between Texas, California and Florida to see who leads in job creation.

“Among the largest states, California, Florida and Texas continue to add jobs at a pace well above the other large states,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, head of the ADP Research Institute. “This is consistent with the fact that the regions they are in — the West and the South — have outperformed the Northeast and Midwest in employment growth during the recovery.” (See chart above)

ADP’s forecast for October comes ahead of the official government employment numbers for the private and public sector, which are due to be released on Nov. 21.

ADP estimates that service industry jobs accounted for roughly three quarters of the private-sector gain in Texas in October. It expects trade, transportation and utilities to see the biggest gain with 7,110 jobs, followed by: energy and construction (+6,660 jobs); professional and business services (+5,830 jobs); and manufacturing (+1,150 jobs).