A flying start is no great guarantee of a big finish

It can be a costly mistake to read too much into early-season form. We must be aware of the teams who appear to have improved or deteriorated since last season - but we must also be aware that the appearance may be misleading.

With no teams having played more than six league games this season, there are some unexpected teams in unexpected places - such as Port Vale, third in League One, and Burnley and Plymouth, sixth and seventh in the Championship. It is possible that they will finish the season in similar positions - but do not count on it just yet.

In 1998, Stoke City won their first six games in Division One. At the end of the season, they were eighth. In 2000, Watford won nine and drew one of their first 10 games in the Championship. They finished ninth. In 1996, Stockport managed a measly two draws and four defeats from their first six games in Division Two. At the end of the season, they were promoted as runners-up. It just goes to show how misleading early-season form can be.

Overall, teams who start the season well tend to carry on doing well - but not quite as well as they were doing at the outset. In the Premiership and Football League during the last 10 seasons, teams who averaged more than two points per game from their first six fixtures went on to average little more than 1.5 points per game from their remaining fixtures. In a similar way, teams who start badly tend to carry on doing badly - but not quite as badly as they were doing at the start.

The bookmakers are slow to revise their opinion of teams who start a season with surprising results. A lot of punters fall into the trap of thinking, wrongly, that the bookmakers are out of date. We should be cautious about accepting the idea that teams have been transformed dramatically, especially if there is no obvious reason why they should have done so.