IEA sees jump in U.S. oil output in next five years

U.S. shale oil output is set to surge over the next five years stealing market share from OPEC producers and moving the country, once the world’s top oil importer, closer to self-sufficiency, the International Energy Agency said on Monday. A landmark deal in 2017 between OPEC and other oil producers including Russia to curb output to reduce global oversupply materially improved the outlook for other producers as oil prices rose sharply throughout the year, the IEA said. As a result, U.S. oil output has resumed sharp growth over the past year and is expected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 12.1 million bpd by 2023, as growth from shale fields more than offsets declines in conventional supply.

Natural gas liquids will add another 1 million bpd to reach 4.7 million bpd by 2023. With total U.S. liquids production set to reach nearly 17 million bpd in 2023, up from 13.2 million in 2017, the United States will be by far the world’s top oil liquids producer. “The United States is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in a medium-term market outlook.