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Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by SteelSD

BTW, BF-

It's about time you addressed why you were so wildly inaccurate about the Washington Nationals offensive unit. Considering that you called Raisor out on this thread and then ended up being completely wrong about it, I think Raisor deserves at least that much.

Go ahead.

Heh.

I can say with absolute certainty that the Nats offense has NOTHING to do with why the team has been successful thus far. (As I believe has been proven on here.)

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by Roy Tucker

In my neighborhood, we call that a triple dog dare.

Yep.

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
~ Mark Twain

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by rdiersin

I don't accept that a players worth is their (RBI+R)/2. That's an estimation scheme that already knows the result for a team. It cannot be applied to a situation in which you do not have those measurements truely available and that's the case for a player. Also for a team RBI~=R, but that's not the case for the player.

Fair enough.

Well I don't accept that RC formula can possibly be accurate at PLAYER level as long as it assigns same value for a speedy Ryan Freel walk at top of the order and a walk to Austin Kearns batting 6th in the order.

Both walks are not outs and extend inning but the Ryan Freel walk has FAR more chance of resulting in a run for team than the walk to a player who doesn't run the bases and has the 3 worst hitters on team up next. Freel's walk not only has more value but it is also representative of a greater level of player achievement than a 6 hole hitter taking a walk.

Give me 50 walks by each of those players. Freel might come around to score twice as often but as far as Runs Created is concerned both will get same Runs Created value.

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

Both walks are not outs and extend inning but the Ryan Freel walk has FAR more chance of resulting in a run for team than the walk to a player who doesn't run the bases and has the 3 worst hitters on team up next. Freel's walk not only has more value but it is also representative of a greater level of player achievement than a 6 hole hitter taking a walk.

I would venture to say that if you bat Freel in the 6 spot and he manages to draw the same number of walks that Dunn would, (not likely, but we'll assume that just for the illustration) that the runs scored after those walks would be pretty close for either player. Freel might steal a couple more bases than Dunn will but if you hit him low in the order without the meat of the order coming up behind him, how many more runs are going to result from those stolen bases?

I also think that Freel would not be pitched around as much as Dunn if he were to bat in the 6 spot with nobody hitting behind him, so he wouldn't be drawing as many walks. Maybe he would still have a decent BA, but he is not going to drive himself in nearly as much as Dunn will. Whoever you have in whatever spot in the order, a walk is more likely to score if there are good hitters coming up next. A few times that player will use his speed and generate a scoring chance, but he still depends on someone else to drive him in. Sure, Freel is an asset to any lineup with his speed, bus as far as producing runs goes (whether scoring them or driving them in) Dunn is by far the more productive hitter.

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

Fair enough.

Well I don't accept that RC formula can possibly be accurate at PLAYER level as long as it assigns same value for a speedy Ryan Freel walk at top of the order and a walk to Austin Kearns batting 6th in the order.

Both walks are not outs and extend inning but the Ryan Freel walk has FAR more chance of resulting in a run for team than the walk to a player who doesn't run the bases and has the 3 worst hitters on team up next. Freel's walk not only has more value but it is also representative of a greater level of player achievement than a 6 hole hitter taking a walk.

Give me 50 walks by each of those players. Freel might come around to score twice as often but as far as Runs Created is concerned both will get same Runs Created value.

That's not entirely true. Yes, a BB by Freel and another slower player may not be "equal", in the sense that Freel may be able to score on a double, where another player may not, but that's not exactly easily quantifiable. RC does take SB and CS into account, so it does contain those speed aspects that are easily quantifiable. Beyond that is a slippery slope. How do you call one player speedy? I mean what things can you objectively give that would give someone points for being speedy? You can't really, without it becoming incredibly subjective. This is what has to be avoided in analysis. SB and CS are sort of hard stats and can be (and are) taken into account, but nothing more can be done without it becoming subjective instead of objective.

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by OldRightHander

I would venture to say that if you bat Freel in the 6 spot and he manages to draw the same number of walks that Dunn would, (not likely, but we'll assume that just for the illustration) that the runs scored after those walks would be pretty close for either player. Freel might steal a couple more bases than Dunn will but if you hit him low in the order without the meat of the order coming up behind him, how many more runs are going to result from those stolen bases?

Just wondering, is there any kind of base-running stat?

Something along the lines of average number of bases advanced per on-base opportunity? Removing HRs since trotting around the bases isn't hard. Also BBs.

I realize its dependent on the hitters behind you, but I would think that eventually, better base runners would advance more bases than lesser base runners.

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

Fair enough.

Well I don't accept that RC formula can possibly be accurate at PLAYER level as long as it assigns same value for a speedy Ryan Freel walk at top of the order and a walk to Austin Kearns batting 6th in the order.

Yet you so value batting average which assigns the same value to singles, doubles, triples and homers.

"I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
- - Rowdy Roddy Piper

"It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
- - Fletch

Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

Something along the lines of average number of bases advanced per on-base opportunity? Removing HRs since trotting around the bases isn't hard. Also BBs.

I realize its dependent on the hitters behind you, but I would think that eventually, better base runners would advance more bases than lesser base runners.

No doubt you have a very good point there. If there is a stat to measure it, I have complete faith that someone here will post it. I was more or less offering a rather simplistic explanation. The better baserunner will probably score a few more runs by virtue of his speed, but I just wonder how many more runs that player would score batting low in the order without the best hitters in the lineup hitting behind him. Basically, would Freel score more than Dunn if he hit in the same spot in the lineup and if he did would the difference really be that great?

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