The Quinnipiac University Poll shows Blumenthal, the state attorney general, leading McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, 54 percent to 43 percent. That represents an increase from a Sept. 28 Quinnipiac survey, when Blumenthal's lead was 3 percentage points.

Poll Director Douglas Schwartz said Blumenthal is having a better October than September.

McMahon has said she'll spend as much as $50 million of her own money on her campaign to win the seat now held by U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd. The former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO has filled voters' mailboxes and TV sets with ads since she began her first political campaign a year ago.

"In our last poll two weeks ago we found that most voters found her TV ads annoying," Schwartz said. "Most thought that her campaign advertising was excessive, so perhaps they are tiring of her ads. Clearly they're not working, as we've seen Blumenthal's favorability numbers have improved, while you look at McMahon numbers they're still flat. We've seen consistently that voters aren't wild about Linda McMahon."

Rex Walden, an artist who lives in Guilford, acknowledges he has McMahon fatigue.

"Absolutely," said Walden, after meeting McMahon in a local hardware store. "Every two days I get something in the mail. It just seems so negative to me."

McMahon said she doesn't regret her barrage of political mailings and ads, given that she had needed to campaign "since last September." While she said some voters have asked her to stop, more have told her to keep them coming.

"I've been out there a lot with my campaign, but I think it's a good mix," said McMahon, who said her campaign's internal polling show the race is tighter than what the Quinnipiac poll predicts. "I feel so much momentum and support that I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing."

The new Quinnipiac poll, conducted between Oct. 7-11, shows Blumenthal with strong support from women and Democrats. Among independents, the largest single block of voters in Connecticut, Blumenthal garners 49 percent while McMahon receives 44 percent.

The telephone survey of 1,119 likely voters has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

"I have different methods of picking winners for the Crystal Ball and we've never had it as a toss-up," Sabato said in a phone interview. He said that since the revelations in February of Blumenthal occasionally misstating his Vietnam War, Sabato has listed the Connecticut Senate race as "leaning" Democrat, in Blumenthal's favor.