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Grain prices bullish bias; Market Noise Numbing Market Decisions

A number of national and international events are creating "Market Noise" that has the potential to influence market prices in the near-term and impact market responsiveness.

Apr 17, 2017

Market Snap Shot

Bonds Bullish

Domestic and Global Equities Consolidating Gains

S. Dollar Sideways to Down

Commodity Index Basing

Oil Running into Resistance

Soybeans, Corn and Wheat Bullish Bias

Rice Neutral

Cotton 84-cent Price Objective

“Market Noise” A Bit Overwhelming.

The level of Market Noise and its perceived potential at some point to influence market prices are eroding market participants of near-term efficient market responsiveness.

Presently, the current number of factors with potential to influence market prices plus or minus are numerous. A few key market impacting events follows:

North Korea building nuclear threat and saber-rattling under this administration will have consequences. U.S. Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 1 was sent to reinforce U.S. resolve.

The debt ceiling or congressional limit on national debt, or the debt the U.S. Treasury Department can issue, has once again reached a peak. Currency market participants will be closely watching presidential and congressional activity surrounding this issue.

French elections: May 7, 2017 France will have a new president. The possible election of a far-right candidate has huge implications for the future of the European Union. I could make the same argument for the election of a far-left candidate. Bond, currency and equity markets are presently factoring in likely outcomes, even though market participants totally misread the outcome of the BREXIT vote.

Syrian events are complex and much news and information surrounding the unfolding events are misleading and likely incorrect. Building Syrian tensions could serve as a catalyst to ignite building Middle East tensions.

A near-term causality in the Syrian Crisis is U.S. and Russian relations, which now appear to be regressing as the giant military powers seek to achieve specific Syrian and Middle East objectives, not to mention European and Global objectives.

China has their own set of economic, social, political, and military objectives. China is sending mixed market signals on North Korea, Syria and the Middle East.

S. domestic and global fiscal, monetary, trade, and regulatory policy have all become question marks as market participants struggle to understand the resolve of global governments to elevate global growth and limit deflationary forces.