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Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

Saturday, November 02, 2013

I Wanna’ Be a Macho Man

Everyone knows who the players are. Like him or not, Game On Dude (8-5) is a worthy favorite. He's only lost once in eight races on today's racetrack. Ten furlongs is not a limitation for him and, unlike last year, he's fresh.

The connections, as well as myself, since I was around him as a juvenile, have been waiting for Mucho Macho Man (5-1) to become, well, a man. Two things: He loves Santa Anita. Second in this race last year, he got his elusive Grade 1 in the Awesome Again, the Santa Anita prep for this; finally he's five, filled out in all the right places.

Secondly, he loves to hear his feet rattle, and he'll get that at sun-baked SA. The race shape should suit--close up behind a contested pace and somehow I believe he'll get a good trip beneath Gary Stevens.

We're taking Mucho Macho Man at 4-1 or greater, and key boxing in exactas with the favorite, Fort Larned (6-1) and Flat Out (12-1), and adding :Last Gunfighter (20-1) and 3-year-olds Will Take Charge (12-1) Palace Malice (10-1) to the super-exotic mix.

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Because of the unusual configuration of downhill, course-altering turf sprints at Santa Anita, distance specialists—especially those with success on this course, is paramount. Preferred running styles are mid-race movers and closers.
The Skinny: #5 back at tops; #14 course specialist; #3 brilliant worker; #12 course goddess; #2 no chance in last

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Unlike the Kentucky Derby at the same trip, deep closers have an extremely hard time winning America’s richest race. Horses entering this off a poor effort seldom, if ever, rebound. Speed and pressers are preferred and it takes an exceptional 3-year-old to beat elders in this event.
The Skinny: #6 all grown up; #9 toughest test of year; #8 remarkable developer; #10 better and better; #1 ignore at peril; #12 brings ‘A’ game.

SANTA ANITA PARK FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2013

Morning Line Odds in parenthesis. If betting to win, strive for two odds levels above quoted early odds.

True Value horses are automatic plays at anything approximating fair odds. The hope is that closing odds will approximate the morning line quote.

Worthy Favorite horses are those we believe will be--or should be—the public’s choice(s). When more than one horse is indicated in any category, they are listed in graded order.

All Exotic Tote-Busters are primarily meant to fill out exotic and super-exotic wagers. But if closing odds appear well above the morning line, a smaller win wager may be in order.

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Inherent class is not nearly as important and stamina in a race where the jockey is much more a pilot than passenger. Premature moves can beat the best horse in this event. Tread very carefully in what generally is a dubious contest: #6 best fits race dynamics; #10 fastest figures; #5 blinkers helped.

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Given the propensity of young horses to run off a bit due to lack of experience, and the natural order of all things turf, closers generally hold serve here. Despite strength of today’s favorites, race could be a moneymaker.
SKINNY: #4 insider reports on site; #5 very talented, over-hyped; #2 “lads” like; #12 good mover; #9 uncoupled O’Brien; #11 KY. Horse to Watch; #8 Bourbon key race.

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Even IF dirt miles are contested around two turns at SA, there’s little time for conventional rating tactics, making wire scores very difficult. Positive form reversals more common in this race than almost any other BC event.
SKINNY: #5 style, strong works; #4 peaking now; #12 “fastest,’ SA lover; #11 extremely honest; #2 short horse Awesome Again.

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: The history of this event is cut and dry: Class, speed and favorites dominate. In Distaff 30, how the speed shakes out among major contenders will determine the outcome. Need not bet to enjoy Distaff 30.
SKINNY: #4 older champion pacesetter; #5 extremely ready; #6 perfect-trip potential; #1 potential score-maker better than rated.