A Trio of Trade Ideas

By

Timothy Collins

| Feb 4, 2013 | 2:55 PM EST

There are still plenty of earnings coming this week, so we could see this weakness flip on a dime -- or a dime beat by a large enough company, whatever the case may be. Looking at this weakness on the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), a few warnings signs emerge. I can't wait for an "I told you so" when a selloff finally comes, even if the person has been on the wrong side of the trade for weeks, expecting a pullback to come from much lower levels. I have my eyes on $149.50. If we close beneath there, then I want to actively protect longs and look for active short-side trades. The Relative Strength Index has done a double dip below 70, which I view as bearish, but we haven't lost all the momentum, as evidenced by the stochastics. I really want to see it dip below 80. We've been too hot for too long for the TRIX to come into play here. For now, just set it aside.

I don't think any earnings tonight will set the tone for tomorrow. Baidu (BIDU), however, is going to be of interest to many traders. I am only looking for about a $5 move here, although I see $13 possible on a really big blowout or blow-up. Those feel like lotto tickets to me and given the premium on this name, it is a tough play. My approach would be to play IV implosion here, but give it room. For example, I would consider pairing for the following trade. On the downside, long the February 22 $100 put and short the February $97.50 put. While on the long side, I would be long the February 22 $115 call, short 2x February 8 $120 calls and long 1x February 8 $125 calls. All this will cost about $3.50, which is still on the high side. My position size here will only risk about a quarter of 1% as my confidence is only middle ground....143 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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