Update on Earl: The Latest Analysis and What It Means for New England

Published at 4:53 PM EDT on Mar 26, 2014

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Update: Hurricane Earl is passing the Outer Banks of North Carolina,producing wind gusts in excess of 50 mph along immediate shorelines, butvery little wind just 30 miles inland. The hurricane has encounteredstrong winds aloft, which have disrupted its inner core and weakened thestorm. As the hurricane moves north overnight and early Friday, it willencounter the Gulf Stream and may strengthen briefly again, beforeencountering more wind aloft and cooler ocean temperatures.

The track will likely be over the waters southeast of Nantucket, passingbetween 50 and 100 miles to the southeast of the Island. There areindications from numerous guidance products that a void of wind maydevelop on the northwest quadrant of the storm, at the time it passesNantucket. This void would develop as the storm begins its transitionfrom tropical to non-tropical. Having said that, wind gusts in excessof 110 mph will still be present on the southwest and all eastern sidesof the storm center. Additionally, heavy bands of rain developing onthe northwest quadrant of the storm may focus stronger winds aloft,driving them to the surface.

The end result is to find rain developing at the South Coast betweennoon and 2 PM, and the NH Seacoast between 5 and 7 PM, becoming heavierwithin 3 hours of starting. Heavier bursts and bands of rain will focusstronger wind gusts to 39+ mph, primarily along the coastal communitiesand those within 30 miles of the coast from the NH/ME border southward.On Cape Cod and the Islands, the Hurricane Warning remains in effect forthe possibility of drawing these stronger winds to the ground in heavierrain bursts, as well. In a circumstance like this, the end result isnot the same as it is for a Gloria (1985) or Bob (1991). Instead, wetend to see damage done rather randomly, where and when the heavier rainoccurs, and especially between 11 PM Friday and 5 AM Saturday.

Occasionally, a storm undergoing non-tropical transition can developstrong winds on the backside of the circulation. I believe this may bethe case across the far South Shore, Cape Cod and the Islands between 1AM and 5 AM Saturday. After most of the storm blows from the east, thennortheast...this would come as winds snap direction to blow from thenorthwest, on the backside of the storm as it starts to pull away.Believe it or not, this may bring the greatest threat for damage fromwind for Southeastern MA.

Rainfall amounts will be 3"-6" Southeast MA with urban and poor drainageflooding, 1"-3" farther inland...less than 1" west of Worcester.

Storm surge of 2'-4' will mean splashover, minor and perhaps pockets ofmoderate coastal flooding, though the storm passes with a receding tide.

Rip currents are building now and will continue through the weekend.

Saturday may still feature a 10-20 mph wind from the west, so linerepair may be slightly hindered, but weather will be quiet, and windswill decrease with fair weather expected Sunday and Labor Day.

Overall - pockets of damage rather randomly dispersed, with a heavierconcentration and more widespread nature on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.