Political science: altering Abbott's polarity from negative to positive

'Abbott is starting the year confident but not complacent.' Photo: Rob Homer

TONY Abbott is likely to be residing in the PM's office later this year. Even though the polls have tightened and things can change dramatically, on both sides of politics, that's the assumption.

A second assumption is that a swag of New South Wales seats will help him get there. It's no coincidence that Abbott is starting his mini-campaign this morning with a rally (invitation only) of the Liberal faithful in western Sydney's Lidcombe. The home territory of those ''Howard battlers'' is fertile ground for Abbott.

Labor has a total of seven seats in western Sydney and on the NSW central coast that are sitting on margins of between 0.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent. Labor was extremely lucky with some of these last time and a double miracle is unlikely, although the party will make a big effort - a government industry statement is coming, directed at manufacturing workers in such areas.

This week's Coalition campaigning, complete with TV advertising and a booklet detailing values, directions and those policies already in the marketplace, is all about seeking to persuade people that the Opposition Leader can be ''Mr Positive''. The key message is that the Coalition has a (positive) plan. It's not the first time such an attempt has been rolled out, but this time it is more extensive and serious.

Abbott is starting the year confident but not complacent. He knows from experience how narrow the gap can be between success and failure. In 2009 he obtained the leadership by chance (Joe Hockey almost had it in the bag) and by the smallest of margins; in 2010 he failed by a whisker to get power.

No wonder he's risk averse. He won't contemplate a reshuffle - it just creates whingers. He minimises ''hard'' interviews. His office has made an extraordinary effort to counter Labor's claims that he is ''anti-woman'', with his chief of staff, Peta Credlin, willing to talk publicly about how he encouraged her to use his parliamentary fridge to store her fertility drugs.

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He is obsessed with discipline, though seemingly unable to avoid periodic lapses. He knows he can be his own biggest risk. His deep personal unpopularity and his negative branding are problems to which he will apply his usual diligence. But can he change his image? And how much will it matter in the end?

Social researcher Hugh Mackay believes Abbott's brand - being negative, destructive and dismissive - has been unchanged for so long that it has become ''indelible'' and it's hard to see him being able to break out of it.

But one of Abbott's senior colleagues argues: ''He's strong on the tangibles. He's an alpha male. Alpha males are runners, jumpers. They build things.'' He believes Mr Positive will be convincing.

If Abbott faced another Labor leader - notably Kevin Rudd - things might be different. But the chances of a change to Rudd have faded (and a switch would involve its own huge problems for Labor).

As matters stand, Julia Gillard, while she has clawed back her ratings, is also fundamentally unpopular. Both leaders know that voters are thoroughly fed up with each of them and the hung parliament. Perhaps that's why the start of this election year has been rather slower than might have been expected. The less visible the leaders are, the happier the public. As Mackay says, this will be a contest where there is no inspirational figure.

This week's Coalition campaign will be emphasising the team, including Julie Bishop, Warren Truss, Hockey (slimmed down with the help of surgery for the battle ahead), Andrew Robb and Malcolm Turnbull. Many promised Abbott ministers are recycled from the Howard ministry, which Abbott sells as one of his positives.

The Coalition speaks enthusiastically about releasing major policies. Well, soon. Those hanging out for its industrial relations policy, probably its biggest policy test, won't be getting it this week. It's hard to think Abbott won't throw out something in Thursday's National Press Club speech, but manager of opposition business Christopher Pyne said last week: ''We are not planning on announcing new policy in the next week but we are planning on reminding people of what is already out there.''

How effectively Abbott sells Mr Positive in coming months could be less important to whether he wins or loses as to the size of his majority.

A Coalition government with a modest margin and an unpopular PM would have no guarantee that fickle voters would be tolerant. Abbott almost overturned a first term Labor government in 2010. A robust buffer is needed to withstand the danger of an electorate that can quickly go sour on new rulers.

There is another reason Abbott needs to do more than just scrape in. A strong lower house vote helps the Senate vote and that could be very important for Abbott. Unless the conservatives get a right-leaning Senate, Labor and Green opposition to Abbott's promise to repeal the carbon tax might force him to meet his pledge to go to double dissolution. And that would be high risk.