Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.

The day traded in a modest range and ended closer to the high than low of the day. We tested and slightly broke the 1278+ FIB. This is what I told you I expected to happen.

Tomorrow we are sitting near the 1278+ FIB and this is a resistance point. The 22TD and 11.2TD cycles continue up tomorrow. The 5.6TD cycle is down tomorrow, but the 2.8TD cycle has turned up. So we have 3 shorter term cycles up an one down. On balance the shorter cycles should provide some up side push.

The 20 week (Wall) cycle continues to provide some downside push. The 1 year cycle is still down hard. So we again have these two longer cycles offsetting much of the upside push of the shorter cycles. Can the market overcome the resistance at 1279-1280? I believe so, because it seems to me there is a slight advantage to the short cycle bias up tomorrow. Much as today any gain will be modest (5-7 S&P points?) and the trading range should be fairly narrow (1% or so). Again I expect we will end the day closer to the top of the range than the bottom...

Here is a view of the SPY and shorter cycles:

GL traders. Do your own analysis and be careful - I expect this push up to end by/before the end of the week and for it to be modest.

Cycle Dawg

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Old as dirt

I have long been a proponent of TA. I have looked at a lot of different methods. In the 70s I maintained about 50 P&F charts manually (pre Web). Some TA approaches work better than others.
In the end I decided that cycles were as good as any, much simplier than most to use and required less time to do.
You may have your own TA and I encourage you to use it and only use my post/opinions as a check on your TA.