ROCK
HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – In the early horse race for the 2016 S.C. Republican
Presidential primary, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Florida
Governor Jeb Bush lead the pack with 13.6% and 12.7% of the voters,
respectively, if the vote were held today, according to the latest Winthrop
Poll.

The
remaining dozen other candidates garnered single digit support or less in the
poll of likely GOP voters. (See Table T10) However, former Arkansas
Governor Mike Huckabee and Bush show the most potential support
in a series of questions that asked respondents whether they would consider voting
for each candidate.

Other politicians
close behind if the election were held today are the U.S. senators - Ted Cruz
of Texas, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Bush
appears to have converted more of his potential support into active support,
said Poll Director Scott Huffmon.

Poll participants who
identify as Evangelicals could be a strong sources of potential support for
Huckabee, but more than 6 in 10 Evangelicals cannot see themselves supporting
Graham and more than three-quarters of Evangelicals cannot see themselves
supporting N.Y. tycoon Donald Trump. Those who approve of the Tea Party can see
themselves supporting Cruz more than any other candidate at this stage.

The Winthrop Poll surveyed
956 residents in South Carolina by landline and cell phones between April 4-12.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%at the 95%
confidence level, according to Huffmon.

The Winthrop Poll questioned what
type of candidate the likely GOP voter thought had the best chance of winning
the general election and becoming president. Sixty percent said a moderate
candidate had a better shot, but 36.8% thought a strong conservative candidate
was a contender.

On the other hand, 7 in 10
respondents said when selecting a Republican nominee for president, they
thought it was more important for a candidate’s beliefs and values to match to
their own than to vote for someone likely to win the election.

HEALTH,
BUSINESS and RELIGIOUS PRACTICES
Winthrop Poll callers asked likely GOP voters about what kinds of services
should be provided by health insurance providers. They responded:

·Well visits
should be covered to the physician - 78.1% said yes.

·Birth
control pills for women - 55.5% said yes, 40.6% said no.

·Intra-uterine
devices for birth control - 50.9% said yes, 39.5% said no.

·Vasectomies
for men - half said yes, 43.2% said no.

With a strong outcry in Indiana
about a new law that would allow businesses
to turn away gay and lesbian customers in the name of "religious freedom,”
S.C. GOP likely voters are divided in their response. Half said business owners
should NOT be allowed to refuse service, while 44.4% said they should be
allowed.

Speaking
of religion, 44.4% of respondents believe evangelical Christians have too
little influence in the Republican Party today. A third thought it was the
right amount.

PERSONAL VALUES and MORALS

Poll respondents were asked about
their own values and morals. Concerning whether it is acceptable to have a
child without being married, 37.3% said it was strongly unacceptable, while 36%
said it was either strongly or somewhat acceptable.

Seven in 10 respondents said it was
strongly or somewhat acceptable for a marriage between blacks and whites. Only
16.1% said it was strongly unacceptable.

Eighty percent of those polled said
religion was very important to their life. Protestants made up 79.7% of the
respondents, with 75.1% of Protestants (59.8% of the entire sample) also
describing themselves as “born again” or evangelical Christian.

POLITICAL LEADERSPresident
Barack Obama’s disapproval rating in South Carolina among likely
GOP voters has plummeted to 91.3%.

Meanwhile, Congress’ disapproval rating also
remains in the basement at 80.2%, a figure that is lower than the national
opinion of Congress.

GOP likely voters are happy with
their elected state leaders and their popularity appears to be on the rise in
South Carolina.

• Governor Nikki Haley – 79% approve
• S.C. State Legislature - 61% approve, while 26.7% disapprove and 12.4% don’t
know or refuse to answer
• U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. – 83% approve. Half of the respondents thought
Scott shared a lot of their values and interests.
• U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. – 58.2% approve, while 34.6% disapprove.
Only half of the respondents thought he shared some of the values and interests
with people like them.

Tea
Party membership is claimed by 13.9% of those surveyed. Its popularity
appears to be on the rise in South Carolina as nearly half approve of the
movement. Nearly 30% are either unsure or don't feel that they have enough
information to form an opinion.

POLL
FUNDINGThe
Winthrop Poll is paid for by Winthrop University with additional support
from The
West Forum on Politics and Policy at Winthrop University. Its
Social & Behavioral Research Laboratory which conducts the Winthrop Poll is
a charter member of the Transparency Initiative through the American
Association for Public Opinion Research.

T1Do you
approve or disapprove of the way Barack
Obama is handling his job as President of
the United States?

All
Respondents

Approve

4.3

Disapprove

91.3

Don’t Know

3.6

Refused

0.8

T2Do you
approve or disapprove of the way Congress
is handling its job?

All
Respondents

Approve

11.9

Disapprove

80.2

Don’t Know

6.7

Refused

1.2

T3Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Nikki Haley is handling her job as Governor of South Carolina?

All
Respondents

Approve

79.0

Disapprove

14.3

Don’t Know

6.6

Refused

0.2

T4Do
you approve or disapprove of the way the South Carolina State Legislature is handling its job?

All
Respondents

Approve

61.0

Disapprove

26.7

Don’t Know

10.5

Refused

1.9

T5Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Scott is handling his job as a United States Senator for South Carolina?

All
Respondents

Approve

83.0

Disapprove

3.5

Don’t Know

11.8

Refused

1.7

T6Do you
approve or disapprove of the way Lindsey
Graham is handling his job as a United
States Senator for South Carolina?

All
Respondents

Approve

58.2

Disapprove

34.6

Don’t Know

6.2

Refused

1.0

T7I’m going to read you a list of names that
have been mentioned as potential candidates in the 2016 Republican Presidential
Primary. For each, please tell me if you would consider voting for this
candidate if he or she ran for the Republican nomination for
president in 2016, would you notconsider voting for this
candidate, or don’t you know enough to say?

[Names Randomized in Survey]

All
Respondents

WOULD consider voting for

Would NOT consider voting
for

Don't know enough to say

Refused/ Don't Know

John Bolton

2.6

23.0

72.9

1.6

Jeb Bush

49.0

35.1

14.5

1.4

Ben Carson

34.3

20.0

44.5

1.1

Chris Christie

26.2

53.1

19.6

1.1

Ted Cruz

43.2

24.7

30.7

1.4

Lindsey Graham

37.0

54.9

6.3

1.8

Mike Huckabee

51.6

36.9

10.3

1.1

Bobby Jindal

26.4

22.4

49.3

1.9

Rand Paul

42.5

38.2

17.3

1.9

Rick Perry

43.5

34.4

20.8

1.2

Marco Rubio

43.5

21.6

32.6

2.3

Rick Santorum

33.3

37.6

27.7

1.4

Donald Trump

18.0

74.2

6.5

1.3

Scott Walker

39.9

11.7

46.4

2.0

T8

Evangelicals

WOULD consider voting for

Would NOT consider voting
for

Don't know enough to say

Refused/ Don't Know

John Bolton

2.0

25.0

71.6

1.4

Jeb Bush

48.0

36.0

14.9

1.2

Ben Carson

36.8

19.9

42.5

0.9

Chris Christie

23.6

56.0

19.4

1.0

Ted Cruz

51.2

18.4

29.3

1.1

Lindsey Graham

31.5

62.1

4.4

2.0

Mike Huckabee

59.7

31.3

7.9

1.1

Bobby Jindal

24.3

22.8

51.3

1.7

Rand Paul

44.6

38.9

15.7

0.8

Rick Perry

47.3

32.0

19.8

0.8

Marco Rubio

42.1

24.0

31.5

2.3

Rick Santorum

39.4

32.3

27.1

1.3

Donald Trump

17.3

75.9

5.6

1.2

Scott Walker

39.4

9.9

48.2

2.5

T9

Those
who Approve of the Tea Party

WOULD consider voting for

Would NOT consider voting
for

Don't know enough to say

Refused/ Don't Know

John Bolton

4.8

25.9

68.3

0.9

Jeb Bush

46.1

44.7

8.6

0.6

Ben Carson

47.8

21.8

30.3

0.1

Chris Christie

19.9

67.8

12.0

0.2

Ted Cruz

61.8

14.1

23.4

0.7

Lindsey Graham

32.7

63.3

3.4

0.5

Mike Huckabee

56.5

38.3

4.8

0.4

Bobby Jindal

39.8

25.5

33.6

1.1

Rand Paul

55.3

34.4

8.9

1.4

Rick Perry

54.6

33.6

11.4

0.4

Marco Rubio

55.8

21.1

21.3

1.9

Rick Santorum

43.4

37.3

18.8

0.5

Donald Trump

23.1

71.0

5.2

0.7

Scott Walker

55.9

10.4

31.8

1.9

T10If
the Republican
Party Primary
election for United
StatesPresident were held
today who would you vote for?

[NOTE: This question was asked
immediately after the randomized list of candidates asking respondents whether
they would consider voting for each candidate, so the respondent had just heard
the name of each potential candidate. Callers did NOT re-read the list of
candidates to the respondents for this question unless asked to by the
respondent.If asked, they began with a
random name on the list and read through the list from that point]

All Respondents

John Bolton

0.2

Jeb Bush

12.7

Ben Carson

4.9

Chris Christie

5.0

Ted Cruz

8.1

Lindsey Graham

7.6

Mike Huckabee

4.9

Bobby Jindal

0.9

Rand Paul

6.2

Rick Perry

1.9

Marco Rubio

4.0

Rick Santorum

0.3

Donald Trump

1.9

Scott Walker

13.6

Other

1.4

Not sure

25.1

Refused

1.2

T11

Evangelicals

John Bolton

0.0

Jeb Bush

12.8

Ben Carson

6.3

Chris Christie

3.4

Ted Cruz

10.0

Lindsey Graham

4.0

Mike Huckabee

6.8

Bobby Jindal

1.0

Rand Paul

5.1

Rick Perry

1.7

Marco Rubio

3.3

Rick Santorum

0.5

Donald Trump

2.1

Scott Walker

13.9

Other

1.7

Not sure

26.4

Refused

1.0

T12

Those who Approve of the Tea Party

John Bolton

0.3

Jeb Bush

9.2

Ben Carson

6.4

Chris Christie

1.3

Ted Cruz

14.8

Lindsey Graham

4.4

Mike Huckabee

6.7

Bobby Jindal

0.5

Rand Paul

7.1

Rick Perry

2.2

Marco Rubio

4.8

Rick Santorum

0.5

Donald Trump

2.7

Scott Walker

18.2

Other

1.4

Not sure

18.2

Refused

1.3

T13In
general, would you say you approve or disapprove of the Tea
Party movement or are you not familiar
enough with the Tea Party movement to have an opinion?

All
Respondents

Approve

49.4

Disapprove

20.4

Not
Sure/Not familiar enough to have opinion

29.2

Refused

1.0

T14Would you
consider yourself a MEMBER
of the Tea
Party Movement?

All
Respondents

Yes

13.9

No

81.4

Refused/Don’t
know

4.7

T15Do you feel that health
insurance providers should
or should not be required to cover well
visits to the physician?
[If respondents did not understand the term “well visit,” the callers prompted
with, “like a check-up.”]

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should

78.1

85.2

85.4

68.0

Should NOT

13.4

10.7

9.7

18.1

Not Sure

6.9

4.1

3.2

11.6

Refused

1.6

0.0

1.7

2.3

[NOTE: The next three questions were
randomized]

T16Do you feel that health
insurance providers should
or should not be required to cover birth
control pills for women?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should

55.5

65.7

63.9

43.7

Should NOT

40.6

34.3

32.4

50.8

Not Sure

2.8

0.0

2.7

4.0

Refused

1.0

0.0

1.0

1.5

T17Do you feel that health
insurance providers should
or should not be required to cover
intra-uterine devices, or “I-U-D”s, for women?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should

50.9

62.4

54.0

42.9

Should NOT

39.5

34.7

36.6

44.4

Not Sure

9.0

2.9

9.2

11.4

Refused

0.7

0.0

0.2

1.3

T18Do you feel that health
insurance providers should
or should not be required to cover
vasectomies for men?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should

50.0

52.1

55.7

43.2

Should NOT

43.2

45.0

35.9

49.7

Not Sure

6.1

3.0

8.2

5.3

Refused

0.8

0.0

0.2

1.8

T19I'm going to read a couple
of things that some people do.For each,
thinking about your own values and morals, I'd like you to tell me whether you
think it is acceptable or unacceptable.

The first is having a child without being
married.Is that acceptable or
unacceptable?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Strongly Acceptable

14.5

31.2

16.7

6.0

Somewhat Acceptable

21.5

17.2

25.9

18.4

Somewhat Unacceptable

22.7

21.7

24.7

21.2

Strongly Unacceptable

37.3

26.8

28.2

50.4

Don't Know/ Not Sure

2.3

3.2

2.2

2.0

Refused

1.7

0.0

2.2

2.0

T20The next is marriages
between blacks and whites.Is that
acceptable or unacceptable?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Strongly Acceptable

41.6

47.6

53.6

26.7

Somewhat Acceptable

30.0

31.5

27.4

32.0

Somewhat Unacceptable

7.4

3.0

7.0

9.6

Strongly Unacceptable

16.1

17.9

9.2

22.7

Don't Know/ Not Sure

2.8

0.0

1.0

5.8

Refused

2.1

0.0

1.7

3.3

T21Which type
of Republican
candidate do you believe has the best chance of winning the general
election and becoming president:

[answers
rotated]

A more MODERATE candidate

OR

A STRONG CONSERVATIVE candidate

All Respondents

MODERATE candidate

60.2

STRONG CONSERVATIVE
candidate

36.8

Not sure

2.5

Refused

0.5

T22Do
you think business owners SHOULD
or SHOULD NOT
be allowed to refuse service to gay or
lesbian customers?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be allowed to
refuse service

44.4

24.9

47.4

49.6

Should NOT be allowed to
refuse service

49.9

69.2

47.4

44.6

Not Sure

4.0

3.0

4.2

4.0

Refused to answer

1.7

3.0

1.0

1.8

T23When selecting a
Republican nominee to run for president, which is more important to you

[answers
rotated]

A candidate who closely matches your beliefs
and values

OR

A candidate who is more likely to win in the
general election

All Respondents

Matches beliefs and values

70.5

More likely to win

23.8

Equally important
[volunteered]

4.1

Not sure

1.2

Refused

0.4

T24Do you think
evangelical Christians have too much influence, too little influence, or the
right amount of influence in the Republican Party today?

All Respondents

Too Much

12.7

Too Little

44.4

Right Amount

33.8

Not Sure [volunteered]

7.9

Refused

1.1

T25How
much would you say Senator Tim
Scott shares the values and
interests of people like you? A lot, some, not too much, or not at all?

All Respondents

A lot

50.2

Some

29.6

Not too much

3.2

Not at all

0.8

Not Sure/ Don't Know

15.5

Refused

0.8

T26How
much would you say Senator Lindsey
Graham shares the values and
interests of people like you? A lot, some, not too much, or not at all?

All Respondents

A lot

24.1

Some

49.3

Not too much

16.5

Not at all

5.9

Not Sure/ Don't Know

4.0

Refused

0.1

T27How
much would you say Governor Nikki
Haley shares the values and
interests of people like you? A lot, some, not too much, or not at all?

All Respondents

A lot

45.8

Some

42.6

Not too much

7.0

Not at all

3.4

Not Sure/ Don't Know

1.1

Refused

0.1

T28Aside from
weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services... more than
once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or
never?

All Respondents

More than once a week

32.0

Once a week

36.3

Once or twice a month

11.4

Few times a year

10.1

Seldom

7.0

Never

2.7

Don't Know/ Refused

0.5

T29How
important would you say religion is in your own life: Very important, Fairly
important, or Not very important?

T31Would you
describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian, or not?

All
Respondents

Protestants
Only

Yes

59.8

75.1

No

17.8

22.4

Not Sure

1.4

1.8

Refused

0.6

0.8

Not asked this question (see above)

20.4

--

T32Overall, do you think abortion should be legal under any
circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all
circumstances?

[NOTE: if they said,
“legal only under certain circumstances,” they were asked, “Do you think
abortions should be legal in most circumstances or only in a
few circumstances?”The
answers to these two questions allowed the caller to code on the scale below]

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Legal under any
circumstances

12.0

10.6

16.1

8.3

Legal in most
circumstances

10.2

4.1

15.1

8.1

Legal only in a few
circumstances

53.6

62.4

44.3

59.3

Illegal in all
circumstance

20.9

22.9

22.5

18.4

Not Sure

0.6

0.0

0.0

1.5

Refused

2.7

0.0

2.0

4.3

Now I am going to read
some specific situations under which an abortion might be considered. For each
one, please say whether you think abortion should be legal in that situation,
or illegal. How about –

[The following six questions were
randomized in the survey]

T33When the woman's life is endangered

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be LEGAL

75.3

62.7

78.4

77.8

Should be ILLEGAL

17.0

23.1

17.9

13.6

Depends [volunteered]

2.6

7.7

0.5

2.8

Not Sure [volunteered]

2.4

3.0

1.5

2.8

Refused

2.7

3.6

1.7

3.0

T34When the woman's physical health is endangered

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be LEGAL

67.4

58.8

70.0

68.6

Should be ILLEGAL

23.7

33.3

24.1

19.5

Depends [volunteered]

5.0

7.9

3.2

5.6

Not Sure [volunteered]

1.8

0.0

1.0

3.3

Refused

2.1

0.0

1.7

3.0

T35When
there is evidence that the baby may be physically impaired

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be LEGAL

29.9

12.2

33.1

34.4

Should be ILLEGAL

59.1

81.7

56.5

52.4

Depends [volunteered]

3.1

0.0

2.2

5.3

Not Sure [volunteered]

2.9

3.0

1.7

3.8

Refused

5.0

3.0

6.5

4.1

T36When
there is evidence that the baby may be mentally impaired

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be LEGAL

34.0

21.8

36.1

37.6

Should be ILLEGAL

57.9

67.3

59.5

52.5

Depends [volunteered]

2.3

3.0

0.5

3.8

Not Sure [volunteered]

3.6

7.9

2.0

3.0

Refused

2.2

0.0

2.0

3.0

T37When the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be LEGAL

57.5

38.6

59.7

63.4

Should be ILLEGAL

36.0

53.6

37.6

27.3

Depends [volunteered]

1.9

0.0

1.0

3.5

Not Sure [volunteered]

2.4

7.8

0.0

2.3

Refused

2.2

0.0

1.7

3.5

T38When the woman or family cannot afford to raise the child

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be LEGAL

13.1

1.2

15.8

15.4

Should be ILLEGAL

82.2

95.8

80.9

78.3

Depends [volunteered]

0.8

0.0

0.5

1.5

Not Sure [volunteered]

1.4

3.0

0.0

1.8

Refused

2.5

0.0

2.7

3.0

T39Do
you think marriages between same-sex couples SHOULD or should NOT be recognized
by the law as valid, with the same rights as a marriage between a man and a
woman?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should be valid

25.9

28.4

28.5

22.4

Should not be valid

68.8

65.7

65.8

73.3

Not Sure

3.6

5.9

3.0

3.0

Refused to answer

1.7

0.0

2.7

1.3

T40 I'm going to read a couple
of things that some people do.For each,
thinking about your own values and morals, I'd like you to tell me whether you
think it is acceptable or unacceptable.
…….

The next is adults smoking
marijuana.Is that acceptable or unacceptable?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Strongly Acceptable

9.4

20.9

9.2

5.3

Somewhat Acceptable

18.1

22.2

20.0

14.6

Somewhat Unacceptable

12.1

10.1

13.9

11.6

Strongly Unacceptable

56.5

46.8

51.0

65.6

Don't Know/ Not Sure

3.3

0.0

5.7

1.8

Refused

0.6

0.0

0.2

1.2

T41Do
you think doctors should or
should not
be allowed to prescribe marijuana for medical purposes to treat their patients?

All Respondents

40 and under

41-60 years old

Over 60 years old

Should

74.2

63.5

81.1

71.9

Should NOT

21.5

36.5

15.4

21.6

Not Sure

3.8

0.0

3.0

6.0

Refused to answer

0.4

0.0

0.5

0.5

T42Do
you think marijuana should
or should not
be made legal for personal use?

The Winthrop Poll is paid for by Winthrop University with additional support from The West Forum on Politics and Policy at Winthrop University.

For additional information, or to set up an interview with Dr. Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404.

Note:Winthrop University, located in Rock Hill, S.C., is a nationally recognized public university offering graduate and undergraduate degrees to an inclusive, international student body.XSLT:http://www.winthrop.edu/WorkArea/ContentDesigner/ContentOutGoing.xslt