Let’s talk turkey. Iowa is not going to have Thanksgiving caucuses. And early December is a stretch.

Yes, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is warning that the Granite State’s primary could be as early as Dec. 6. That’s hinging on Nevada. It moved its caucuses to Jan. 14 after Florida started a domino effect by moving its primary to Jan. 31. Gardner wants Nevada to move to Jan. 17 or later to avoid crowding the New Hampshire primary.

Gardner also threatened a December primary four years ago, when the early states started elbowing each other. Ultimately, a deal was reached that kept everybody in January, 2008. Iowa had to skirt the new year, with a Jan. 3 date, and it will probably have to do that again. It worked out fine four years ago, and it would again.

New Hampshire, and by extension Iowa, could stay first this cycle by moving into 2011. But it would seriously undercut both states’ bids to remain relevant and first in future cycles.Nevada and South Carolina could become the new first-in-the-nation caucus and primary of the actual election year. Leaders in both traditional “first-in-the-nation” states understand this. That’s why they’ll find a way to keep the voting in 2012.

Read more on the latest calendar skirmish on the Register’s Iowa Caucuses page.