That all changed on Thursday when the Hurricanes announced that the team had traded Jeff Skinner for prospect Cliff Pu and three draft picks.

As I said in the comments for that article, I think math that just subtracts 25-30 goals for Jeff Skinner overstates the problem. Someone else will fill the roster spot and a spot in the top 9 which should be good for at least 10 if not 15 goals. Further, Skinner’s departure frees up a bit more power play ice time that should net a few more goals for whoever gets that ice time. So if he is replaced internally, I view Skinner’s departure as a loss of 10-15 goals.

I am also on record since early July as believing that a domino effect was likely with Justin Faulk being traded to add a scoring-capable forward to replace Jeff Skinner before Skinner was traded for futures. The order would obviously be different, but I still think that is quite possible. I revisited that in some detail in Monday’s Daily Cup of Joe.

Regardless, Skinner’s departure sets a new landscape in terms of setting Carolina Hurricanes forward lines for the 2018-19 season. Here is my early projection for how I think it shakes out.

Top scoring line – “If it ain’t broke (sic), don’t fix it”

When I read articles and talk with people on Twitter, I continue to be surprised by how many people think the starting point should include separating Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. During the 2018-19 season, the two were unmistakably a case of 1+1=3 which is exactly what a team is aiming for when building lines.

Don’t overthink it and try to go galaxy brain.

The team has an offensive combination that was very good together for the entirety of the 2017-18 season. The aim should be to figure out which player most complements the Finnish duo and in the process tries to help them take the next step up into the point per game range.

Though neither is what one might consider a pure first line NHL talent, the team has two players whose skill set fits very well with Aho/Teravainen. Aho and Teravainen both create offense and move the puck well. An ideal third for this line would add a power forward element to the line with the ability to forecheck and cough up pucks, be effectively offensively without the puck and bring a physical crease-crashing presence to the line. Valentin Zykov is nearly exactly this as is Micheal Ferland who was acquired from Calgary.

Again, the goal is to build the best scoring line possible, so if someone else fits better in training camp, he would be considered. I also think that if the opportunity presents itself, using Faulk to add a proven scoring wing for this line could change the equation one more time. But as of right now, I think Ferland and Zykov possess good complementary skill sets and are the front runners win this slot in the lineup.

Top defensive/match up line – “Play Staal to his strengths”

Aho/Teravainen spent about three-fourths of the 2017-18 season flanking Jordan Staal before Aho was moved to center and Finnish duo departed. Despite playing the majority of the 2017-18 on a line with two scorers who were clicking, Staal finished the season with a modest 19 goals and 46 points even as Teravainen and Aho were vaulting into the mid-60s for points. To be clear, I think Jordan Staal is a good player and fits well on a winning team. But his role is that of the anchor for a defense-leaning line that sits opposite a true top scoring line.

The tremendous run that Staal had a couple years back flanked by Joakim Nordstrom and Anrej Nestrasis shows just how capable Staal is at least on the defensive side of the puck even just with capable, responsible depth forwards and a bit of chemistry. As such, there is some flexibility in terms of who plays with Staal, and it might even work that he takes what is left after building out other lines. That said, I like the idea of pairing Staal with Justin Williams and then adding speed and forechecking capability on the other side.

At 36 years old Williams is not what he was 12 year ago when he paired with Rod Brind’Amour on a lights out checking ling that also scored at a high rate. But Williams still brings every shift intensity, top-end awareness and knowing what it takes to be successful playing against the NHL’s best. I also think that the trade off giving away a bit of mobility but boosting hockey IQ and decision-making could be a perfect fit for including Warren Foegele in a role where he can play to his strengths as an aggressive forechecker and skating force with Staal and Williams both capable of playing a read and react game behind him.

The future and second scoring line – “The time is now”

For a team that was sub-par in terms of scoring in 2017-18 and lost a top scorer last week, a bit more offense will need to come from somewhere. Arguably the greatest potential comes from two young players in Necas and Svechnikov who project to be top 6 scorers at some point. In what is definitely a young man’s game, it is not out of the question for players like Necas and Svechnikov to just rise to the occasion instead of growing into it.

One line of reasoning is that the team needs to support the rookies by separating them and pairing each with more experienced players. While I do think it is possible that Svechnikov gets an audition next to Aho and Teravainen and possibly even wins the slot, I think the default is to pair the two rookies together.

It is just a hunch until we see him in action as a head coach, but I think one of the things that will emerge early in terms of Brind’Amour’s coaching style is a propensity to challenge players to rise up. In Peter Laviolette fashion, no longer will it be about setting modest step-wise goals and trying to play safe rather than be sorry. Instead, with young players who have high ceilings like Necas and Svechnikov, I think that Brind’Amour will either put them in roles that challenge them if he thinks they are ready or he will otherwise give them time to develop with big roles at a lower level in Charlotte. Specifically in the case of Necas and Svechnikov, Brind’Amour will offer some support by being a bit selective with match ups at least early on.

But I also think we see some changes too. The run of starting expected centers at wing to let them grow into the NHL game will end, and Necas (and Aho as noted above) will develop to be a center by actually playing center. I also think that Brind’Amour will pick his spots to challenge Necas/Svechnikov and will be patient and understanding when they hit some growing pains. And I also think as they hopefully earn it that Brind’Amour will seek to follow successful challenges with bigger challenges and a push to excel as soon as possible not based on some predetermined schedule.

Ideal would be to have a solid all-around left wing to pair with the duo, but the team is light in terms of that skill set. If he can find the scoring version of himself that appeared only briefly in March for the 2017-18 season, I think Phil Di Giuseppe as a player who can skate with the kids, has enough puck skills to do more than just forecheck and brings a nice complementary skill set as a player who can both forecheck and defend. But at the end of the day as I draft the lineup, I think the left wing slot is the one that could most turn into a game of musical chairs until working combinations are found.

The backstop with more offense – “Seeking solid with more offense this time”

With the goal of opportunistically playing match ups a bit with Necas and Svechnikov, having a second defensively capable line to sit behind Staal’s especially on the road could be critical. The team tried to do this last with a veteran checking line extraordinaire. But the trio of Joakim Nordstrom, Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris missed. With nothing for any kind of catalyst to generate offense, the fourth line was decent defensively, but when you score absolutely nothing it just does not work. In today’s NHL where good teams are able to score 12 players deep, trying to break even by never giving up goals is a losing proposition.

If playing with depth forward caliber talent, Victor Rask’s scoring upside is limited, but it should still be much higher than what Kruger contributed last season. Then when you pair him with Jordan Martinook, the hope is that the fourth line can both score a bit more and also provide strong contributions to the penalty kill that stumbled some in 2017-18. The options are multiple for the other wing position, but most likely this line features a try out for whoever is not assigned to a higher line and is left.

Brock McGinn possibly playing on his off side is one possibility if he does not win a higher slot, but so are players like Di Giuseppe, Foegele and Ferland. Regardless of how lands there, the goal is to fill a couple penalty kill slots and improve scoring over 2017-18.

A few side comments

* I think Valentin Zykov’s situation could be an interesting one. He definitely gets a chance to keep his March 2018 slot next to Aho/Teravainen. But if he does not win that, it is not impossible that he falls all the way out of the lineup.

* If Warren Foegele does get a chance to audition next to Staal, it will be interesting to watch how Brind’Amour balances the upside of young legs and aggressive play versus the inevitable growing pains that Foegele would endure playing in that role against the league’s best.

* As much as I like the Canes youth, I think adding a capable scoring left wing to play with Aho and Teravainen could be a game changer. My view is that Aho and Teravainen will need help from a third line mate to take the next step up from already impressive mid-60s point totals to the next level as point per game players. Max Pacioretty would easily do the trick as would Brandon Saad.

* With Aho still transitioning to center and Necas starting there as a rookie, I do not see room for Lucas Wallmark though he immediately comes into play if the Hurricanes have an injury at the center position.

Early shot at building lines

Addition / Aho /Teravainen (alternates for “Addition” in order are Zykov and Ferland)

Foegele / Staal / Williams (if Foegele does not look to be ready, then McGinn and Di Giuseppe are plan B front runners)

Ferland / Necas / Svechnikov (McGinn and Di Giuseppe offer a similar forechecking presence on the left side)

What say you Canes fans?

1) Which of my pairs (Aho/Teravainen, Staal/Williams, Necas/Svechnikov, Martinook/Rask) do you agree with? Which would you do differently?

2) What do you see as the best way to utilize rookies Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, Warren Foegele and Valentin Zykov to hopefully maximize their 2018-19 development and also the team’s playoff hopes at the same time?

3) What do you like for line combinations and why?

Go Canes!

12 Comments

ashevillecaniac
on August 8, 2018 at 6:20 am

The top 3 pairs look right. I have a hunch – just a hunch – that Martinook is slotted as the 13th forward now, with McGinn possibly in a lead pairing instead.

Some think Maenalanen was brought in to complete a Finns line, given chemistry in the past with Turbo.

For an unknown reason I am intriguiged by McGinn with Necas and Svechnikov as well, perhaps because of his.constant hustle setting the right example.

This will be the most interesting training camp and preseason in a long time because of all of the unknowns and possibilities. I can’t wait for it to get started!

Before addressing each question, I want to say asheville is close to where I am. I think the 13th spot is a battle between Di Giuseppe, Martinook, and Maenalanen. It could go to any of them. I also think McGiinn will prove to be the best bet with Necas/Svechnikov. Unless as you mention someone of the Pacioretty/Saad level is acquired.

1) I think all the pairings make sense. Though I could see Staal/McGinn if Brock doesn’t end up on the second scoring line. That would create Rask/Williams, which could be an excellent all-around line as it would have significant offensive potential.

2) Zykov and Foegele both scored last season on a team that was struggling to score. They need to be given a chance to see if their offense translates to 82 games. TAZ should be deployed to begin the season. If Aho scores a goal before November, that is an improvement. The thing I see when I rewatch the nine games when Zykov played with Aho and TT is that the movement and passing of the Finns unsettled the opposition’s defense. That allowed Zykov’s biggest advantage, his strength in front of the net (both strength on his skates and strength in getting off quick shots), to become even more dangerous. Even if the Canes acquire Pacioretty I wouldn’t separate TAZ. I think Necas/Svechnikov benefit much more from a solid veteran LW. Although, at some point trying TT/Aho/Svech would be exciting.

3) Zykov/Aho/TT. Until it is broke . . .
Foegele/Staal/McGinn. Let’s be honest, there is a lot being asked of the rookies. So I still want to see a disruption line with three players who can frustrate opponents with speed and positioning (Williams really only provides the positioning). Foegele might get overmatched some, but he appears to be have the determination to be successful. It wouldn’t be long before Foegele made adjustments such that this line would be miserable for opponents to face.
Ferland/Necas/Svechnikov. I really hope a LW is acquired. My perspective is that Ferland is a great physical presence and will be protection for the rookies, but isn’t strong enough defensively. I think Saad or Pacioretty/Necas/Svechnikov would be terrific for the rookies.
Martinook/Rask/Williams. This is not a “4th” line. It is hybrid 2nd/3rd line that is utilized as you mention to help shelter Necas/Svechnikov. It can hold it own against other teams’ top lines and exploit other teams’ weak lines.

I like the pairs as a starting point and think this is how RBA would start the season. There are a lot exciting possibilities, but also that means that there are question marks.

I agree on Zykov: if not with Aho-TT, slotting him becomes a little more challenging. Doesn’t feel like he fits with Staal and he’s not a 4th line guy. Maybe Necas-Zykov and Staal-Svech become the pairs? Ferland-Aho-TT could be exciting as well.

I’m surprised you put PDG and McGinn as equal. I thought McGinn really took a step forward last year and could have had 20 goals, while PDG feels like the 13th forward. I really like the way Foegle plays, and Foegle-Staal intrigues me, but not sure he’s an upgrade over McGinn (yet).

I think Martinook is a sure thing on the 4th line as one of the team’s PK specialists. If he can play RW, then Foegle might slot into the LW with Rask.

Other than Staal, there are a LOT of question mark down the middle. Is Aho ready to be center for the season? (probably so). Is Necas ready for the NHL? (I think so…). Is Rask healed from shoulder injury and is he going to show offensive potential of the past? (have a bad feeling about Rask and his decline).

There is no 4th line here. Obviously the Aho and Necas lines would get more O zone starts. Rask and Williams can start in any zone. Staal’s line would be outright suffocating. You could switch McGinn and Martinook in these lines and still accomplish the same goal for the lines.

I just see Ferland with the Finns for his size and grit, plus he scored 40 points last year on a top line. If he is on a checking line his point total would be much less. The team can’t afford to waste points.

I hear you, yet Martinook can kill penalties. If the team stays the same who would be the top 4 PK forwards? I like DiGiuseppe because he can play both wings, yet I think Martinook earns the nod for special teams.

There are a lot of combinations i like… including this set. Zykov and Ferland may switch depending on situation and streaks; In some situations we may need an enforcer on the line with the rookies; and finally Martinook/De Guiseppe/Zykov may also be scrambled. But I like the Foegele/Staal and Rask/Williams “cores” as an alternative to Staal/Williams and Rask/anyone.

I’m not a fan of the Staal/Williams combo. Staal will see a lot of ice time due to draws and facing the opponents top line. If anything, Williams needs to have his ice time limited due to age and skating ability. Williams is smart and uses a high effort level to make up for his skating, but playing him top minutes is asking for a less effective player later in games and the season.

2. I would wager the AHL line of Gauthier/Roy/Kuokkanen staying together at the tournament, but Kuokkanen is the only LW listed on the roster. Who plays on the left of Svechnikov and Necas? One of the centers will clearly be playing on the wing, so my guess is either Saarela, Geekie or maybe Matheos getting the first crack (with Saarela being my ultmate wager).

3. While the offense is disgustingly deep, the defense is just as shallow. Outside of Jake Bean, Michael Fora and Brandon DeJong, the roster is full of invitees, a couple of whom filled jerseys at prospect camp. With no college players on the roster, holy heck our defensive prospect depth looks thin. Thank God for Martin and Fox.

4. I would imagine this tournament will see Jeremy Helvig being THE man in net, and as such this will be a great test for him, behind a less than certain defense.

5. Top to bottom, if our offense performs as advertised, we will compete for another TC championship regardless of our defensive shortcomings. Whatever happens, seeing Svech and Necas together in game action is something I cannot wait for. One month friends!

fogger. You are mellowing. Seriously–“if our offense performs as advertised, we will compete for another TC championship regardless of our defensive shortcomings.”

If Necas and Svechnikov are as advertised, then the prospect D would have to be falling down every other shift for the Canes to be anything less than the tourney favorites.

You are correct the top line should be:
Saarela/Necas/Svechnikov.
Then probably Kuokkanen/Roy/Gauthier; Henman/Pu/Geekie, Levin/Struthers/Mattheos.
The first three lines all have multiple players who should at least get called up.

The D is weaker, but not really horrendous.
Bean/Fora should be strong, DeJong/Eliot both had some nice moments at camp. The others have size if nothing else.

I expect Helvig will impress.

So overall, an excellent team that will give us die-hards a few days of thrills.

I don’t see Williams and Staal really fitting together if Staal is going to be on the shutdown line. I think Williams is closer to a liability in the dzone than an asset at this stage in his career. I think Williams is better suited as a winger on a more offensively sheltered line.