A Tribute to the Thoughts of Another and his Friend"Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going!" -Another

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Comments

I can see that there are many visitors to this blog, but that only a handful of people are viewing the very best parts. In my opinion, the best things that have come out of this blog are the discussions found in the comment sections. The interaction brings out some (THOUGHTS!) that go much deeper than my posts.

Over the months I have probably spent as much time and thought on these discussions as on the posts that I put up. So I would encourage people to look and maybe even participate.

Right now I am having a nice lengthy discussion with Guess here about why I think gold is the only place left where you can safely store your savings if you want to financially survive the approaching wave.

And I recently had a nice conversation with The Mad Scientist here regarding hyperinflation.

But the seminal discussion on this blog was with Ender, on the subject of FreeGold, beginning here, and carrying on to later posts. This one is a must-read for any of my fellow FreeGold spectators out there. The show is moving on to its final act. So take your seats, fasten your seatbelts, and take a deep breath, because the real action is about to begin.

6 comments:

Reading your exchange with Ender was enlightening. Considering the "concerns" vocalized by China recently, the shift in Treasuries purchases that they can legitimately excuse due to their own economy, and the speculation that they are moving dollar reserves into hard assets as fast as they discreetly can, I would say that the groundwork for change is being laid at an accelerating clip. That it was Russia who piped up about the need for a new reserve currency is amusing, but behind the scenes may be ominous.

Accelerating is right. Today the US stepped on the gas pedal big time and look at it go. Did you see the gold charts today? The Cartel takes it down to 882 then Ben announces his new Gideon Gono-like policy and it pops up to 944. That is some volatility. Things are officially out of control now. And the attempts to stay in control will continue to escalate. It feels like we are now on the leading edge of the April 19th wave. Time to start paddling.

The April 19th wave is a turning point on Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model.

It is actually misstated here as today, March 19. He also mis-calculated it in this article as April 23rd. But those are both simple math errors. The actual date of his model has not changed in more than a decade, and it is 2009.3, which correctly calculates to April 19th.

To understand why this is significant, you should read the above linked article written in 1999, and also his treatise, It's Just Time, released on October 10, 2008.

Martin is probably the world's foremost observer of the economic cycle. His model which he developed in the 1970's, has pinpointed moments in time, to the day, in which peaks and valleys have occured.

It predicted 1987.8, the very day when the stock market bottomed during the crash of 1987 which prompted Ronald Reagan to create the President's Working Group on Capital Markets, unofficially known as the PPT. More recently his model pinpointed 2007.15, Feb. 27, 2007 which turned out to be both the peak in US real estate, a peak in the Asian markets, specific to the day, and the beginning of our current crisis. The next date was 2008.225, which coincided with the reversal of both gold and the US dollar. And April 19th is the next turning point.

Incidentally, his model also pinpointed Sept. 11, 2001 as a significant date. Here is a quote from It's Just Time:

"The 37.33 month cycle is equal to 3.11 years. This also is very close to Pi being 3.141. To show the hidden order, I will for the first time publicly or even privately illustrate a point. Take the high of the previous wave 1998.554298. Add Pi in terms of years and months 3.141. This produces the date 2001.695. Take 365 days and multiply .695 yields 253.675 days into the year 2001. That amounts to September 11th, 2001. So much for the CFTC claiming that my forecasts manipulate the world economy because nobody can predict a specific day years in advance. For as much as things may appear to be random, it is more like Neo in the Matrix. Suddenly he can see not the walls, but the code."

The bottom line is that with trillions of inputs from billions of people, the system is so complex that it appears chaotic and impossible to understand enough to make meaningful predictions. But what Chaos Theory teaches us is that nothing is really as chaotic as it seems. There are always patterns waiting to be discovered, which will eventually emerge. These patterns form Fractals, which are similar patterns on different scales of observation.

And this is exactly what Martin Armstrong does with his modeling. He looks for patterns that work on every scale. From minutes in the day, to weeks, to months, to years, to decades, to centuries and ultimately throughout the centuries that man has walked the earth. He has identified these cycles with remarkable accuracy. Others have also identified similar cycles, but Martin is one of the only ones who has applied this theory to the markets, giving specific dates.

I have written several posts which discuss this. I'll list a few of them here:

It is all about time. Information flows through the public's collective mind in ways too complex to comprehend. But this collective confidence seems to peak and trough in very specific cycles. And there are many different cycles on different time scales, or frequencies, that cross at the same time. And like waves in the water, when they cross they sometimes cancel each other out, and other times they combine into much greater amplitude.

April 19th is a significant turning point in the model. But the real bottom of a larger cycle is coming on 2011.45, June 18th, 2011.

You can certainly dismiss this as hocus pocus, or you can be aware of the cycles and pay attention to what is happening and try to identify what will be the change. I have decided that his models is reasonably reliable, and especially so given that we are in a volatile time of change.

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Disclaimer

The above is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice, nor is it at all intended to be taken as such. The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the author alone on the current and future status of the markets and various economies. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered by them.