Members of K-Pop band, BTS perform on ABC's 'Good Morning America' show in Central Park in New York City, US, May 15, 2019. (File photo: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)

Behind the population decline is a demographic trend of overall ageing in South Korea, common to advanced economies. For years, people in developed countries have been living longer while having fewer children.

The average age of people living here is higher, and there will be fewer people of working age to care for the elderly in the not-too-distant future.

AGEING THREATEN POPULATION GROWTH

Analysis by the International Monetary Fund demonstrates how ageing populations can strain budgets with higher outlays for public pensions and healthcare.

The South Korean government presents these changes as threatening economic growth and has enacted a number of measures to encourage childbirth in recent years – most notably, free childcare and mandatory parental leave.

But so far, the measures haven’t stemmed the decline. Recent statistics, released last month, show South Korea’s birthrate at a record low.

Volunteers take care of babies at Jusarang Community Church in Seoul, South Korea, December 18, 2018. (File photo: REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji)

HAND-WRINGING AND FOOT DRAGGING

A natural rejoinder to hand-wringing over population decline is to point out that we live in an era of growing scarcity, with melting ice caps and disappearing forests. Humans have inflicted permanent stress and contamination on ecosystems.

A key task of governance is effectively apportioning resources among members of a population. Maybe having fewer people competing for resources wouldn’t be so bad?

American economist Paul Krugman has written that “slower population growth indeed could and should be a good thing” but that taking advantage of demographic changes requires a kind of unorthodox policy making that is in short supply.

Krugman refers to what he calls a “bicycle effect,” which means that if an economy is not moving forward at sufficient speed, it will fall over.

The premise is that an economy must have constant growth to fuel new capital investment. If growth stalls, because of a decline in population, the economy can tank due to a lack of new investment.

ARRESTING POPULATION DECLINE

In response to a brewing crisis, the country’s finance ministry announced in September a plan to deal with population decline, specifically to maintain economic growth and prevent labour shortages.

Street vendors selling clothes and food line the streets of Myeongdong. (Photo: Tang See Kit)

It announced plans intended to inject funds to prop up small and medium-sized enterprises, where most South Koreans work, and encourage older people to remain in the workforce past the customary retirement age.

The ministry also outlined some loosening of South Korea’s strict immigration laws, by allowing qualified foreigners easier paths to remaining in the country for longer. Immigration is a natural solution to a problem like this.

If the government were to open a path for larger numbers of immigrants to work legally with a path to permanent residency, that could go a long way to solving labour shortages and would help prop up growth.

But there is no consensus in South Korea that large-scale immigration is desirable, and there isn’t likely to be one soon.

HEALTHCARE CHALLENGES

Beyond the economy, an age distribution more skewed to the elderly creates healthcare challenges. In South Korea, social norms have traditionally dictated that care for elderly relatives is handled within the family, with a minimal role for the state.

Like so much about the tech industry, it sounds both ingenious and sad. While robots can provide company to old folks, it is nevertheless sad to think of anyone having to rely on a robot for companionship.

ACCEPTING A WORLD WITH FEWER PEOPLE

The news about Seoul isn’t all bad. In some ways it’s an alright place to be old.

Due to its density, the city is walkable. Most people can, within a short distance, find a pharmacy, a grocery store and connections to Seoul’s broad network of public transportation, which is free for elderly people.

The city has a wide network of hiking trails where elderly people can spend time, enjoy the sights and exercise for free.

I have hiked those trails, and have many times marvelled at the vigor of people more than twice my age who are engaged in far more challenging hikes.

A general view of Seoul city skyline at dusk, pictured on May 9, 2014. (Photo: AFP/Ed Jones)

Seoul’s population decline is another sign that the world is changing in ways we aren’t comfortable with, but must confront.

Our world is capable of supporting fewer people. While it may seem unnatural, now is the time to accept the reality of fewer people being born – in Seoul and elsewhere around the world experiencing an ageing, shrinking population.