David Pastrnak

In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeronand David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracekand Claude Girouxare the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Raskplaying Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara(channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliottand Michal Neuvirth.

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoyand Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk.

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louisnotched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?

As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:

So there you have it. If these 77 skaters stay healthy, the 2017-18 season will easily surpass the down 2016-17 campaign could come close to doubling that number of skaters to score 60+ points, setting a new high since the last lockout in the process. Of course, health is always the main factor and the reason why players who were previously on pace for 60+ points (Jaden Schwartz, Mark Scheifele, Filip Forsberg, Logan Couture, Tyson Barrie) are currently impossible to project. They could just as easily bounce back quickly from injury and make this benchmark as they could struggle to return to health and miss it. Will all 75 of these players hit 60+ points? Probably not, though for each one that drops out, another player such as Thomas Vanek, Alex Pietrangelo, David Krejci, William Nylanderor Brent Burnscould go on a hot streak and jump right into the mix. For now, this is the the current picture in the race to 60 points.

Surprises in the current projections:

Lightning, Islanders, and Flyers stars make up the top six projected scorers, with Nikita Kucherov way ahead of everybody. Kucherov could potentially outscore talented teammates Victor Hedman and Tyler Johnsoncombined.

Tampa is joined by Vegas with six players apiece on the list; that’s two teams making up 16% of the league’s top scorers. Add in the Isles’ five players and you have three teams with a 23% share.

How about Kings veteran Dustin Brown on pace for 62 points after five straight seasons of failing to crack 40? Or rarely talked-about Bruins rookie Danton Heinen eyeing 63 points? Neither would have been anywhere near the conversation for 60+ points prior to the season.

Four rookies are on pace for 60+ points, led by the extremely impressive Brock Boeser, while Joe Thornton is amazingly the only player over 33 on the same path.

Boston Bruins beat writer Joe Haggerty could not have said it better: “You can’t make this stuff up”. The unbelievable rash of injuries continues in Boston, as center David Krejciand rookie winger Jake DeBruskhave been ruled out for Wednesday night’s match-up against the Atlantic-leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

The sheer number of injuries suffered by the Bruins this season, especially among the forward corps, is hard to comprehend. 22 games into the 2017-18 campaign the only forward to have played every game are David Pastrnakand energy-liners-turned-top-nine-mainstays Riley Nash, Sean Kuraly, and Tim Schaller. While there is no word yet on the extent of DeBrusk’s injury, the young scorer has been one of the Bruins’ more dependable forwards with 12 points in 21 games, but of course he now joins the long list of casualties. Currently out of the lineup alongwith DeBrusk and Krejci, who had only just returned to action, are 2016-17 leading scorer Brad Marchand, veteran David Backes, power play catalyst Ryan Spooner, promising rookies Anders Bjorkand Peter Cehlarikand, of course, defenseman Adam McQuaidas well. Spooner just recently re-injured the groin that had kept him out all but eight games on the season. In the same game, Cehlarik suffered a leg injury that should keep him out at least a month. Marchand and Bjork have been sidelined since November 13th and there has been no concrete information on when exactly either can be expected back. Backes has made a remarkably quick recovery from major surgery to cure his diverticulitis, but he too is not quite ready to return and there are doubts about how he will play once he is back. Other Bruins forward who have missed time already this season: Patrice Bergeron(5 games), Noel Acciari(13 games), and Matt Beleskey(2 games).

In total, the Bruins have missed a whopping 100 man-games already this season, far more than any other team in the league and heavily weighted toward their forwards. That makes it all the more impressive that the team is still sitting pretty in the Atlantic Division. In terms of points percentage, the B’s are third in the Atlantic and just behind the two-time Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins overall. Their 60 goals for may a bottom-five number in the NHL, but what would you expect from a two-way team missing most of its offensive talent? A recent winning streak showed that the Bruins and head coach Bruce Cassidy can get it done, even with a makeshift roster. There is no sign of when Boston will get back to full strength, if ever this season, but if they do it could be dangerous for the rest of the NHL.

It wasn’t the best matchup for the Boston Bruins Saturday, but the team allowed right wing David Pastrnak to take the faceoff with 0.9 seconds remaining in their overtime game with the Los Angeles Kings. According to Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe, had Pastrnak just got a stick on the puck, things wouldn’t have spiraled out of control in that short amount of time. Instead, the Kings’ Anze Kopitar won a clean faceoff and passed it to Tyler Toffoli, who blasted it past Boston goaltender Tuuka Rask with 0.4 seconds left, allowing the Kings to walk away with a shocking victory. If you haven’t seen it, catch the video here.

According to Shinzawa, Pastrnak still was the best option for who was out there between Anders Bjork and Torey Krug, but he should have done anything, even illegal, to keep the Bruins from allowing a clean faceoff. A penalty would have only given the Kings an extra attacker, which would have made little difference with 0.9 seconds remaining, but it could have allowed Boston to substitute with a better face-off specialist like Patrice Bergeron.

“All we’re asking him to do is basically affect the puck there,” said coach Bruce Cassidy. “Not even win it. We don’t need to win it. We just need some sort of stick on it so it bounces toward the boards. I think that’s what David was thinking. If he could push it toward the boards, it has no chance of going backwards. Didn’t happen.”

Brandon Burns of NHL.com writes that special teams is what let the Tampa Bay Lightning down in Saturday’s 4-1 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. The scribe writes that it has been the team’s special teams that has made the difference in the team’s success this season. While the team only found itself in two penalty killing situations all game, Tampa Bay allowed goals both times, while the power play had four power play chances and couldn’t convert, something the team has done in 10 of 11 games. Neither Steven Stamkos or Nikita Kucherov were able to get on the scoreboard, breaking both of their scoring streaks at 11 games.

Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Detroit Red Wings should be taking a long look at Grand Rapids Griffins defenseman Joe Hicketts as a potential callup to fix the team’s defensive struggles. The 21-year-old undrafted free agent has impressed the organization and almost made the team out of training camp with his physical play, despite his 5-foot-8, 177-pound frame. The scribe breaks down Hicketts’ play and points out that he is the perfect player to shake up the team’s failing blueline.

The Boston Bruins tweeted that veterean center David Krejci will miss Monday’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets with what’s believed to be a back injury. Krejci, who missed Saturday’s game against the Kings, has one goal and five assists in six games, centering the Bruins top line. David Backes will likely fill in for him in that spot again.

While the offseason has crawled along, name after name has been knocked off the list of restricted free agents as teams try to put together their roster for next season. With Monday’s signing of Barclay Goodrow by the San Jose Sharks, there are only 20 RFAs remaining unsigned for the 2017-18 season.

Heading that list is still Leon Draisaitl and David Pastrnak, two young superstars looking for a long-term payday before they turn 22. Each of them scored at least 70 points last season and have established themselves in the top tier around the league. Past them there is still a ton of talent. Alexander Wennberg and Bo Horvat make up the next tier of RFAs, coming off 50+ point seasons and key building blocks for their respective teams down the middle. Both just 22-years old they’ll be important contracts for Columbus and Vancouver to deal with before training camp starts.

After that, the list is dotted with several useful players who should have full-time roles this season along with some who are on the edge of the NHL still. Calgary leads the way with three remaining, while many teams have all their free agents locked up. Below is a list of the remaining free agents, along with their point totals from last year.

Breaking out this season with 34 goals and 70 points, Pastrnak showed why he was so highly coveted by the Bruins organization and proved he could be an elite offensive talent. At just 21, he’s now completed three seasons in the NHL meaning this extension buys out only two UFA years. That length, which will make him a unrestricted free agent at 27, is why the cap hit is so much lower than someone like Leon Draisaitl, who was compared to Pastrnak all offseason. Draisaitl gave up three UFA years, but received an $8.5MM AAV on his new contract.

More similar is the deal Filip Forsberg signed last summer after his own entry-level contract expired. Forsberg received $34MM over six years, but was a year older than Pastrnak is now and didn’t have quite the high in terms of points. Forsberg backed up his deal with another 30-goal campaign, a path Bruins fans will hope Pastrnak follows.

One of the more interesting things is that Pastrnak’s average salary comes in right between Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, something that had been reported as important to the team. Though Marchand told them it was fine if the new contract surpassed his, they likely still didn’t want it to far outpace the two superstar forwards. It would have, had the term been extended to eight years.

While the deal seems good for the Bruins, it’s almost perfect for Pastrnak as well. He gets paid a hefty salary and entirely avoids the arbitration process, and will hit the market in 2023 as an in-his-prime scoring machine that could demand another huge contract. Obviously the Bruins will want to keep him around even longer, but he’ll likely have the ability to demand an eight-year contract from any team that wants to buy out UFA years (as long as the CBA stays the same).

Some may point to the fact that Pastrnak has “only had one good year,” but the Bruins certainly don’t think that he was just a flash in the pan. Even in his first two seasons he still scored at more than a 40-point pace, and those were mostly played as a teenager. If he continues to develop, he could be pushing Marchand for the team scoring lead as soon as this season.

The deal also has ramifications elsewhere around the league. Young wingers like William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Patrik Laine will be looking to get paid in the next couple of seasons, and there is now another sub-$7MM extension for an elite scorer. While Draisaitl’s deal likely gives them a top end to negotiate towards—though he has played plenty of center during his short career as well—Pastrnak, Forsberg and Johnny Gaudreau give them something more realistic to work up from. You can bet this deal will be brought up in negotiations for the next several years.

David Pastrnak is one of the five remaining unsigned restricted free agents, and easily the most important one to his team. As training camp is set to open tomorrow the Boston Bruins have yet to come to some sort of an agreement with the young sniper, and as agent J.P. Barrytold Joe Haggerty of CSNNE there’s “no breakthrough yet.” Pastrnak is still in the Czech Republic, and has decided not to attend camp with the Bruins until a deal is done. Darren Dreger of TSN gets the feeling that something is coming later tonight, but there are definitely still obstacles to overcome.

One such obstacle is the KHL, which has reportedly already given offers to Pastrnak to play in Russia next season. It remains extremely unlikely that he would go there, as he’s maintained all along that he loves Boston and wants to play for the Bruins long-term, but it is still a negotiating tactic his camp can use. The added proposition of playing in the Olympics is just another factor on the KHL’s side, given that Pastrnak would likely be the Czech Republic’s top forward (sorry, Jaromir).

For Bruins fans still wringing their hands with anxiety, remember that holdouts for big name RFAs happen often. Last year, Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Kucherov all signed just before the season began, with no ill-will between the two sides. Though Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell and Jacob Trouba ended up holding out into the season, there is no reason to think Pastrnak would do the same. Instead, he’s more likely to just miss a few days of training camp before a long-term contract is announced. Dreger reports that they’ve been looking at 5-8 years, though it’s still unclear where they will land.

While the Bruins and unsigned winger David Pastrnak remain far apart on money, Pastrnak’s agent J.P. Barry told Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald that they are both in agreement on discussing a maximum eight-year term. Prior reports have suggested that the team is offering around $6MM per year while Pastrnak’s camp is looking for something closer to the $8.5MM that Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl signed for earlier this offseason so there is still quite a gap to bridge financially. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun adds (Twitter link) that there were lengthy discussions between the two sides today.

More from the Atlantic:

There remains no timeline for Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson to resume skating as he continues his recovery from foot surgery back in June, reports Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press. At the time of the procedure, the expected recovery time was four months. As a result, his availability for the season opener a month from now against Washington is now in question.

Another Senators player recovering from offseason surgery is center Derick Brassard, who told Postmedia’s Ken Warren that he feels that his recovery is ahead of schedule. The 29-year-old went under the knife to repair a torn labrum on June 6th with an expected recovery time of four-to-five months. He doesn’t expect team doctors to clear him for contact until at least the four-month mark which makes it unlikely that he’ll play in the opener on October 5th.

There’s “nothing new” on contract talks between the Red Wings and RFA winger Andreas Athanasiou, GM Ken Hollandtold Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Meanwhile, Athanasiou’s agent Darren Ferris told reporters that the KHL has “moved to more of a probability at this time”. James notes that AK Bars Kazan in the KHL has a one-year offer worth between $2.5MM-$3MM while the Red Wings are coming in at two years at around $1.9MM. It wouldn’t be surprising if Detroit’s PTO deal for P.A. Parenteau from earlier today came about with the uncertainty surrounding Athanasiou’s situation.

While the average hockey fan may not know the name of many goaltending coaches around the league, Francois Allaire could be the exception. Beginning 32 years ago with the Montreal Canadiens and Patrick Roy, he revolutionized the position as one of the first notable “butterfly” coaches. Allaire would mentor Roy from the minor leagues all the way to the Stanley Cup, before moving on to other stops around the league.

Now, after more than three decades in the game Allaire has decided to retire according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports. The Colorado Avalanche, his last stop, hired Semyon Varlamov’s personal goaltending coach this summer to replace him. The goaltending position (and because of it, the game in general) looks much different in 2017, and much of that has to do with Allaire and his disciples changing it from one of reflex to one of positioning. While he leaves the game, his legacy does not.

The New York Rangers have named former playersBrian Leetch and Brad Richards Hockey Operations Advisors, joining a front office they once played for. Both will work with prospects in the organization to try and unlock their full potential. Leetch is a Hall of Fame defenseman who is one of the greatest Rangers of all-time, playing 17 years for the club before ending his career with short stops in Toronto and Boston. Richards on the other hand spent just three seasons with New York near the end of his career, but is a two-time Stanley Cup winner and was a dominant two-way center for many years.

Still with the Rangers, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that Filip Chytil’s injury is not as serious as originally thought, and though the first-round pick will miss the rookie tournament, could be available for the team’s training camp. Chytil suffered a groin injury in the Four Nations Tournament this summer, but is an exciting young prospect for the Rangers to get a look at this fall.

Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the David Pastrnak camp continues to point towards Leon Draisaitl’s eight-year, $68MM contract as a comparable in negotiations with the Boston Bruins. Draisaitl and Pastrnak are similar ages and both experienced a breakout this season, though the latter’s was relatively unexpected. Draisaitl’s deal comes after a 77-point season playing mostly alongside Connor McDavid, while Pastrnak jumped from 26 points in 2015-16 to 70 this season. The Bruins’ winger is a restricted free agent, and would be giving up four UFA years should he sign an eight-year contract.

By all accounts, it seems like David Pastrnak’s talks with the Bruins haven’t gone as well as either side has hoped so far. While there is mutual interest in a long-term contract, there seems to be a big difference regarding what the cap hit on the deal should be.

Late last month, it was reported that the Bruins had made a $6MM per year offer for either six or seven years with Pastrnak getting to choose the term. That would allow them to keep his cap hit below winger Brad Marchand, something that they’re believed to be keen on doing. However, it sounds like that’s not a deal that Pastrnak is willing to sign considering nothing like that has been signed yet.

What complicates things a bit here is that the 21-year-old is coming off of quite the career season. After recording just 27 and 26 points in his first two seasons, Pastrnak had a breakout year, tallying 34 goals along with 36 assists. That really helps his bargaining position but the question becomes is this a sign of things to come or was 2016-17 a year where everything went perfectly and he’s going to be more of a 50-60 point player down the road?

Given his first two seasons, it wouldn’t be surprising if GM Don Sweeney isn’t at least trying to hedge against Pastrnak seeing his point total drop next season. If that is the case, it would stand to reason that this is a factor in the delay in getting a contract done.

When there is a difference in opinion as to what a player could realistically produce in the years to come, a short-term deal becomes that much more legitimate of an option. While it hasn’t been discussed too much in this particular case, that could change somewhat soon if the stalemate is still ongoing closer to training camp.

A two-year contract would potentially serve as a compromise where Pastrnak would still get a significant raise from his entry-level salary while the Bruins would get more certainty over the next couple of seasons as to whether or not Pastrnak can continue to produce at a high-end level.

Of course, there are some drawbacks to this – the Bruins would be giving up the chance to have four RFA (cheaper) years as part of a long-term deal that would help keep the AAV lower while if Pastrnak doesn’t produce as much over that span, he could wind up with potentially less money in the long run. These types of risks aren’t unique to this circumstance though, that’s just the nature of the beast on short-term contracts at this stage of a career.

With there still being the better part of two weeks left before training camp, both sides can rightfully continue to focus on hammering out a long-term pact. But if those talks aren’t fruitful, a bridge deal may be the way to go even if it’s not what either side prefers to do.