Thursday, March 27, 2014

Fresh from their November municipal victories and fueled up
with new money, Front Range anti-fracking activists shifted their attention to
promoting statewide fracking bans. However, their initiatives have produced a
powerful reaction that has already activated local governments from across the
state and leadership of both parties in strong opposition.

The Democratic Party leaders, such as former governors Bill
Ritter and Roy Romer, are aware not only the mischief the initiatives could do
to state regulation of business and the economy, but in fact, they could tear
the Democratic Party apart and hurt John Hickenlooper’s re-election.

Most of the initiatives are positioned as just “local
control” or mere “distance from rig to residence” limits, but they could easily
translate into broader bans, fulfilling the activists’ and their funders’
ultimate goal of limiting as much as possible the state’s gas and oil industry.

The gas and oil industry is already spending millions in
media, public relations and consultants to oppose the initiatives. The campaign
from a group titled, Coloradans for Responsible Energy, has been on television
since November and is now using large inserts in state newspapers and
magazines.

Also, the broader business community, recognizing the danger
to the economy from the anti-fracking activists, have begun organizing through
a group called, Vital for Colorado, and has been successful getting ahead of
the initiative process. Their first full-page advertisement with a headline,
“Energy Chaos in Colorado,” appeared March 16 in the Denver Post. More than 150 local government officials signed a
letter in opposition to the “local control” initiative as an anti-jobs and
anti-economic development proposal when tough fracking regulations are already
on the books.

Fortunately for the business community, this appears to be a
very good year to stop extreme environmental initiatives.

·Energy independence, always a goal of Americans,
is in even sharper relief today given the manipulation of European natural gas
markets by Russia.

·The Democratic Party leaders and voters are
especially sensitive to maintaining a pro-jobs and strong economy approach for
fear of losing the U.S. Senate and various local races.

·The November electorate is likely to be skeptical
of initiatives that offer ill-defined regulatory schemes and whose consequences
could raise prices or cost jobs.

·More than two-thirds of the public supports the
Keystone Pipeline in spite of the extreme rhetoric and threats of environmental
activists. Energy independence, jobs and the benefits of natural gas vs. other
fuels has undermined the “anti’s” position.

Colorado is ground zero for the national fracking battle.
The fight will be expensive. Contrary to last November’s anti-fracking sweep of
local cities, the business community and energy industry have strong arguments
and numerous allies.

“I think
this will be the test case. The East and West Coast environmental groups and big money are
putting everything in here,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. “I think they would go to California,
except it’s too expensive and the governor there is also opposing it strongly.
So we’re now ground zero in the battle over fracking in this country.”

Ciruli Associates

Floyd Ciruli founded Ciruli Associates, a research and consulting firm specializing in public policy and research, in 1985.

Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past-president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli is the Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He is an adjunct professor teaching public opinion and foreign policy. Mr. Ciruli is a board member of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.

Mr. Ciruli is widely known to Colorado audiences as a pollster and political analyst for 9-KUSA TV, KOA Radio and The Denver Post. Most recently, he has appeared on Fox News with Neil Cavuto. In September 2016, Mr. Ciruli was inducted into the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame. He hosts the state’s leading blog for politics and trends at www.fciruli.blogspot.com.