Heavyweight boxing & mixed martial arts ratings and commentary

March 2009

March 28, 2009

Eddie Chambers jabbed his way to a clear victory over Sam Peter Friday night, dominating the punch statistics while avoiding any damage from the bigger fighter. Though Chambers didn't have Peter in trouble or score any knockdowns during the fight, he scored consistently, albeit with a fairly low workrate. Peter for his part couldn't solve Chambers solid defensive guard or get into position to use his power advantage. The extra weight he carried from weighing in at 265 slowed him in the later rounds, but Chambers didn't try to capitalize with a stoppage, apparently feeling confident he would get the decision.

The results was a mixed decision for Chambers, with one judge scoring the fight a draw while another scored it 99-91 for Chambers; this is reflective of the fight's low workrate, which meant that many rounds could go either way. Here's how I called the fight:

Introduction. Peter looks big, not super-fat really, but not extra-muscular. Chambers not skinny or super-muscular either--has a few extra pounds himself.

Round Two: Peter going to body on combo, gets tagged by a jab. Peter backing Chambers up, who responds with fast lead hands again. Peter lunging in on jabs, two big jabs from Chambers, then to body; Peter getting hit in face a lot. Decent right hand from Peter, followed by good shots to the face from Chambers, Peter whiffing on most punches. Peter goes to body tough, good exchange at end of round, no damage; Chambers 10-9; Total: 20-18

Round Three: Starts same as others, Peter in center of ring. Chambers gets caught in corner, doesn't get hit though. Peter to body, Chambers counters with jab; chess match at this point, both are hesitant. Chambers hits Peter with several jabs to face, good, flush shots but Peter unfazed; Chambers 3-4 more head shots; and three more even. Chambers dancing now, confident. Peter jab to face of Chambers, backs Chambers to ropes but he escapes. Chambers toying with peter, attacking face at end of round. Chambers 10-9 Total: 30-27. Chambers' corner asks ref to watch Peters' low shots to hip.

Round Four: Slow start to round, circling again. Peter not very active, Chambers smiles after Peter connects to Chambers' face. Peter tries big flurry but doesn't connect with much. Peter good jab. Chambers standing in front of Peter, doing nothing this round. Good double left jab from Chambers; body blow by Chambers; Chambers combo connects, now on ropes, returns jabs; punches from Peter get through guard, then low blow from Peter; lots of action at end, Peter frustrater by Chambers right and tries to attack in flurry. Peter's best round but questionable whether he really won it. 10-10 Total: 40-37 Chambers.

Round Five: Peter more aggressive at opener of round 5, throws jabs. Chambers relaxed, taking his time, choosing when to strike; Peter makes effort to close distance; Chambers backs off, jabs. Not much action entire round. Good exchange from both with 30 seconds left; Peter makes attempt at end but again doesn't connect with much. Could go either way again, neither fighter did much at all. 10-10 Total: 50-47 Chambers. Teddy Atlas of ESPN gave 2 and 3 to Peter, 1 and 4 to Chambers, which seems ridiculous to me. He gave 5 to Chambers too.

Round Six: Chambers scores with jabs; Peter trying to be more agressive rather than countering, but Chambers beats him to the jab. Chambers dancing occasionally, jabs and counters. Peter not doing much, but Chambers being very conservative. Chambers jabs twice, blocks Peter's counter, and jabs again. Peter connects a left & a body shot, but still getting peppered with jabs throughout. Chambers 10-9. Total: 60-56.

Round Seven: Same kind of action, a little bit less from both; Chambers stalking more, gets caught by uppercut, and Peter's jab gets through too; fighters exchanging, but not at a great rate. They're standing toe to toe but doing very little. The punches are fast from both, just very infrequent. Two jabs from Peter get in; good combo from Chambers, again Peter attempts clumsy flurry at end. Another close one, Peter wins on agression. Peter 10-9 Total: 69-66.

Round Nine: Peter more active, maybe sensing he needs KO, looking stronger this round. Chambers whiffs a few rare times. Peter looking better this round, more confident, boxing better, controlling the action more. More jabs from Chambers; left-right from Chambers. Peter relentless in attacks, but still not connecting much. Right hands exchanged by both fighters; Peter goes to Chambers' body. This is the one round I gave to Peter solely on aggression, as Chambers workrate was so low. Peter 10-9. Total 88-85. Atlas disagreed, said Peter got dominated this round. While this was true for the whole fight, this round was actually close since not much happened.

Round Ten: Peter looks tired after last round, but still active. Chambers fighting tough. Neither fighter very effective; both tired but active in final round. Chambers looks confident; Peter dancing a bit, trying to be aggressive. Chambers misses a few lefts, then connects on a few jabs, and hits Peter as Peter lunges in for last attempt. Chambers ok with round ending as Peter tries to wrestle him into corner. Final round irrelevant, 10-10. Chambers overall 98-95

Scoring: Punchtrack has Chambers connecting 43% of his punches, Peter 19%, which was true to what I saw; Peter was blocked most of the time by Chambers' defense.

Official result: Majority decision: 95-95 on one card; 96-94 and 99-91 Chambers

The 99-91 result is very understandable; if my 10-10 rounds go to Chambers, I would have had it 98-92, you could argue almost every round for him. The 95-95 draw is understandable only if you give every possible round to Peter, but it's hard for me to find five rounds which he definitely won. While the scoring seems disparate, the low workrate of the fight made the wide range of results possible. The more you grade on "control" and "aggressiveness" rather than actual punches landed, the closer to a draw the result is.

The fact that Chambers didn't hurt Peter much could be a factor, too, but Peter never came close to hurting Chambers, though there were a few cuts on his face. If Olympic scoring were used, Chambers could have won every round. But the low workrate put several rounds on the fence, and one judge chose to give all of them to Peter. Considering how Teddy Atlas scored some rounds, where even some that Chambers won clearly—like rounds 2 and 3—went to Peter on his card, I guess nothing is certain.

Chambers' win puts him back in future title contention. At just under 27 years of age, he rejoins the group of top young prospects: Povetkin, Arreola, Dimitrenko, & Platov. But he's already lost to Povetkin, and this fight didn't suggest he would win a rematch, as his workrate slowed throughout the fight like it did against Povetkin. He proved that he can defend against, and outbox, a bigger fighter, but also showed a lack of power for which he is famous.

Peter's fortunes decline with the loss, particularly due to his weight, which will make people wonder if he'll show up in shape for future bouts. And his will is called into question, too. After the disastrous Vitali Klitschko match, it might have been wise to set up a few certain wins for Peter, but his camp very boldly (and in the end, unfortunately) arranged a fight with a top young contender. Now they'll have to go the other route to build back his reputation as well as his fighting psyche.

March 27, 2009

Nigerian knockout artist Samuel Peter (SportsRatings #8, 30-2) and "Fast" Eddie Chambers (#18, 33-1) clash tonight in a very interesting heavyweight bout. Two very different styles will be on display and psychology could be a factor. Most of the pre-bout talk has focused on the fighters' weight.

Peter needs a win to show that he is still one of the top heavyweights. Although he has won 23 fights by knockout and lost only to both Klitschko brothers, his most recent performance against Vitali was universally panned as a disaster. Unable to be effective against the much taller fighter, he became a human punching bag and retired after eight rounds of pummeling.

If Peter wins convincingly, it would show that he's still a cut above the rest of the contenders and deserves his spot in the top 10. A loss might convince many to write him off, and without a high ranking he might have trouble getting fights. There would be nothing for fighters to gain against a low-ranked Peter, and a lot to lose since he will always be a dangerous foe due to his knockout power.

Chambers is in a less precarious situation. His loss to Alexander Povetkin meant that he isn't considered first among young heavyweight prospects, but at 26 he has a long career ahead of him. Beating Peter would show that his career might be spent in the top 10, challenging for titles and maybe eventually getting one. A loss would be another temporary setback, but would further reinforce that he doesn't have the power to compete with bigger or stronger fighters.

At first blush it seems like Peter should be the hungrier fighter. He has more to lose, and more to prove. But the weigh-ins surprised many.

Peter's weight has always been an issue, and never moreso than before this fight. Peter came in at 265 for the fight, over 10 pounds heavier than his last fight five months ago and the heaviest he's been. His speed and skill have been questioned before and not only does this weight raise concerns in those areas, it also suggests that mentally he's just not committed to doing what it takes to be a champion. Moreover, it could suggest that his will was broken by the fight against Vitali.

Chambers weight, too, is an all-time high at 223. This could be deliberate on his part when facing a bigger fighter, to make it harder for Peter to move him around the ring. But Chambers' own level of committment in terms of being in shape has been questioned, too. For a smaller heavyweight he's not as cut as someone like David Haye.

This looked like an even odds fight before the weigh-in. Peter might have been overly dismissed after the Klitschko fights, and presents a challenge to Chambers that he hasn't faced: a true knockout artist. Chambers, though, has good boxing skills and is faster than Peter, two things that give him an advantage. Povetkin was stronger and at least equally skilled; Peter will only have the strength advantage, and little speed.

Post weigh-in, money quickly gravitated toward Chambers, making him the Vegas favorite for a decision. Few think Chambers can knock Peter out, but if he did there would be more criticism of Peter than accolades for Chambers. In short, with Peter coming in so big, Chambers reputation if he wins the fight probably won't see a great leap.

Peter can jump to #6 in the rankings with a win, close to getting back to the top five where he spent almost all of 2007 and 2008. Lose and he'll fall out of the top ten for the first time since 2004. Chambers has a chance to jump into the top ten for the first time; he reached #13 before the Povetkin fight, just after beating Calvin Brock.

The fight is being broadcast by ESPN as part of Friday Night Fights, scheduled for 10:00 pm eastern time, making it two weekends in a row with a significant heavyweight fight nationally televised, an increasingly rare event.

March 21, 2009

Gomez wearing a white hat. Gomez is 4" shorter but has a small reach advantage. He's two years younger but with Vitali's 4 years off it probably doesn't matter. Gomez looks a little bit big.

No staredown really. Klitschko looks calm but his face looks puffed up. From sparring? Gomez looks a bit tentative. Has "GAZI" on his back, very long shorts.

That's Boris Becker in the crowd? Yep.

Round One:

Gomez agressive at the start. Both fighters start off pawing...Gomez right and Klitschko left are pawing. Slap from Klitscho, again to body. Left from Gomez. Gomez defending well. Left to head from Gomez, no damage. 10-10.

Round Two:

More contact early on. Vitali annoyed, trying to connect. Some jabs. Body shot, good straight jab from Klitschko. Fighters facing each other, still pawing, but more punching. Another jab from Vitali. Late punches as round ends. 10-9 Klitschko. Total: Klitschko 20-19.

Gomez still lunging, looking more like Hasim Rahman. Good hook to Vitali's head, but Klitschko getting best of exchanges. Gomez' eye trickling blood; some of that blood is on Vitali's shoulder. Vitali is faster right now, beating Gomez to punch, Gomez still lunging in more desparately now; Viatli getting good head shots in. Gomez good shot; action was faster this round than any other. 10-9 Klitschko Total: Klitschko 50-46.

Round Six:

Vitali good straight right early in sixth; good counter from Gomez, Vitali unhurt. Gomez lunges in, slips onto canvas midway through the round, clearly tired. Vitali headhunting Gomez now. More good shots to face...Klitschko cut very high on forehead, probably not from punch. 10-9 Klitschko Total: Klitschko 60-55.

Round Seven:

Gomez very aggressive, almost desparate, to start the seventh. Looks like last gasp. Solid right to chest by Vitali. Very active round. Three staright jabs from Klitschko--Gomez counters with his best shots in several rounds; Klitschko answers with solid punches. GOMEZ DOWN from Klitschko right hand, crumples to canvas by the ropes. Klitscko going for kill, battering Gomez, traps him in corner. Both fighters fall down on each other with 30 seconds left. Gomez barely holds on. 10-8 Klitschko Total 70-63.

Round Eight:

Klitscho holding hands low, no guard at all. Looking for killing blow. Gomez still dancing, trying for occasional opportunity to close the gap. Slower round for first two minutes. Mostly fighting at distance. Decent left from Gomez, Klitschko counters. Gomez almost goes down--body shot, then three straight lefts; Gomez stopped fighting and turned his back, which made Vitali stop his attack, but Gomez turned back to face him. 10-9 Klitschko Total: 80-72

Round Nine:

Gomez staggered 30 seconds into round; his other eye is cut; Vitali has a point deducted for a headbutt, which was probably unintentional. Gomez down immediately from body blow, now he's just eating shots. Combinations, body shots, Vitali connecting at will, Gomez won't give up. Head snapped back but he keeps lunging in. Finally Gomez bent over from shots, ref stops the fight. Vitali Klitschko winner by stoppage at 1:49 in round nine.

Another dominating fight by Klitschko. Gomez didn't do as poorly as Peter, but by the 7th round it was close. He clearly felt like quitting at several moments in each of the last few rounds, but kept on going just in case he could make something happen. There was no chance of him winning on points, so his only hope was an extremely lucky punch.

Gomez started the fight looking like himself; then he appeared confused like Hasim Rahman; then he started to look like Sam Peter did vs. Klitschko, and finally he almost pulled an Oliver McCall by turning his back a few times. Overall he did no better, nor too much worse, than Tony Thompson did against Vitali's brother Wlad—a (small) bit of early success then many losing rounds, fading a bit with each round, and finally getting stopped. But he made Vitali work a lot harder than Peter ever did.

Vitali Klitschko (#4 SportsRatings) takes on Juan Carlos Gomez (#7) in less than an hour (6pm Eastern time). SportsRatings will liveblog the fight and score each round.

Klitschko (36-2), in only his second fight in four years, would gain points for a victory but still might be shy of #3 Nicolay Valuev's rating. The two would be in a virtual dead heat if Klitschko won. Of course, most experts consider Klitscho far superior to Valuev, but his long period of inactivity eroded his score. Klitschko holds the WBC belt while his brother, #1 SportsRatings heavyweight Wladimir, holds the IBF and WBO titles.

Gomez (45-1), a former cruiserweight champ, gives up size but brings some skills into the ring. The speed differential between the two won't be great, and Gomez has shown toughness as well. Gomez is 2 years younger and has a small reach advantage. But the Cuban is 4 inches shorter and upwards of 20 lbs. lighter than the Ukrainian. Gomez will have his work cut out for him.

Should Gomez prevail he would move up to #4 and Klitschko fall to around ninth. A loss would drop Gomez out of the top ten but he would remain in the top 25.

Klitschko is coming off an easy October win over #8 Samuel Peter (Peter's second loss), while a month before than Gomez won a clash between top ten fighters with Vladimir Virchis, handing him his second defeat.

Oddsmakers have made Klitschko a decided favorite in the bout, which is being held in Stuttgart, Germany.

March 01, 2009

Martin Rogan, a virtual unknown just a year ago, continued his storybook ascent by knocking out Matt Skelton to capture the Commonwealth (British Empire) heavyweight title. Rogan, who most would say lacks the quickness and conditioning of an elite boxer, simply "out-toughed" Skelton in a hard-fought match. After a back-and-forth ten rounds, Rogan put Skelton down in the 11th—the first time he's been on the canvas—and soon after he was up the referee stopped the fight as Rogan unloaded again.

Rogan, now 37 years old, didn't take up boxing until in his 30s and his first professional fight was just over four years ago. His first notable win was over Paul King in October of 2006 and it was enough to put him at #94 in the SportsRatings Heavyweight top 100. But by early 2008 Rogan, although 7-0, had slipped out of the top 100 and saw his fortunes fading as he was unable to secure decent fights.

Perhaps because of this, Rogan entered the Prizefighter tournament, an eight-fighter, one-day bracket in April of last year. Although there were no big names involved, Rogan was not favored to win; undefeated David Dolan was pegged by most as the champion. But after taking out two other fighters including previously undefeated Dave Ferguson, Rogan outpointed Dolan in the final and took the 25K pound prize. At 10-0 Rogan jumped to #59 in the rankings.

This gave Rogan the opportunity he'd wanted for years. Next up was Audley Harrison, and again Rogan was an underdog. Harrison, a gold medalist whose career hadn't measured up to its promise, was still too good of an opponent for Rogan. But on December 6, 2008, Rogan proved the critics wrong again, toughing out the early rounds and taking the advantage later in the fight for the decision. Rogan jumped to #35 in the year-end rankings for 2008.

Once again, Rogan moved up another level, and faced an opponent that was beyond his ability—or so boxing observers though. Surely, this Belfast cab-driver can't continue this improbably winning streak? Matched with Commonwealth and European Boxing Union champ Matt Skelton, who ranked #16 last month and had faced Ruslan Chagaev for the WBC title a year ago, this was certainly the end of the line for "the Entertainer." But Rogan again rose to the occasion, and showing great stamina he wore down the larger fighter.

What's next for Martin Rogan? How far can he go? At this point, he's going to be facing some top-level competition. Rogan will be an underdog yet again in his next fight, probably even if it's a rematch with Skelton with the European title on the line. He may be up for the inter-continental title, which would mean a bout with Alex Dimitrenko, who is even bigger than Skelton and much younger.

But Rogan's been underestimated before. It's not hard to see why. Though he isn't out of shape, he certainly isn't cut to perfection like some boxers, and at 225 he's a bit small for a top-ranked heavy. He doesn't have great hand speed, and for a "brawler" he's somewhat tentative. But he's actually a decent boxer, putting up a good defense and making sure he doesn't make big mistakes. From the evidence thus far he has a great chin, and though not a dynamo in the ring he has shown he can outlast opponents if necessary.

So when Martin Rogan fights next and is a prohibitive underdog, don't sell him short. Though there are many reason Rogan shouldn't have gotten this far, somehow he has. Given that, who's to say what he might do?