Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Hillary Needs to Inhale

If she wants to win, Hillary needs to inhale.
22 years after Bill Clinton famously explained away his marijuana
use at Oxford by saying "I didn't inhale", Quinnipiac College released a poll
yesterday showing that Democrats in the home state he adopted with Hillary favor legalizing small amounts of recreational pot by an
overwhelming 65%-31% margin.
The margin among New York voters aged 18 to 29? 83% to 14%.

With some already wondering aloud if the 66-year old former First Lady is too old to mount a presidential campaign in 2016, the glass ceiling crasher's frontrunner
status could evaporate quickly if younger voters find her on the wrong
side of a clear generational divide on a high-profile issue.

The Clintons saw that movie in 2008 when young
voters favored hip Barack Obama (and his well documented pot smoking) over Hillary by 20 percentage
points, delivering him both the Democratic Party's nomination and the
presidency. Hillary's high profile hoisting of a shot of whiskey at Bronko's Restaurant and Lounge in Crown Point, Indiana snagged her a one point win in that state's primary but she lost voters there under 40 by 19 points. The Clintons don't make the same mistake twice.

So any Democrat looking to generate buzz with the 14% of Democratic
voters that the Pew Poll says are under 30 can stand out from
the crowd by endorsing legalized marijuana, now. It's a particularly appealing tactic
for Hillary, who can make it clear she's not running for grandmother-in-chief
with one decisive policy stance.

But the marijuana debate is not just a generational rift; it has a strong
racial dimensions as well.

The leading cause of disruption in the black community today is a prison system
that holds too many African-American men for too long. Leaders increasingly discuss how the community's progress is stunted because of the more limited employment opportunities for men with arrest records for possession of a small amount of weed.

If Hillary doesn't back legalization, she will nonetheless need to squarely address the impact of current drug policy on the black community and offer alternatives of her own. But modest, federal criminal justice reforms will not break through the noise from the legalization movement or meaningfully reduce the state prison incarceration rate for those arrested.

The Clintons have worked
tirelessly since 2008 to repair strained relationships with some black
leaders from their epic battle with the country's first black president. Reopening the wound would be politically fatal to the Clinton campaign. Blacks are 19% of the Democratic primary electorate and much
more likely than whites to favor legalizing marijuana, according to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

A majority of Latinos support legalization too, even though a 2013 Pew study said they are less likely than either whites or blacks to have tried the drug.

Of course, the winner of the Democratic Primary still needs to pass through November on the way to The White House. A CNN poll found only 36% of Republicans support legalization. But 59% of politically independent swing voters nationwide back legal weed, suggesting it won't be a major issue for a Democrat in the general election. And voters of all parties can quickly become keen to the tax revenue that would be generated by legal pot.

So far, Hillary has shown little interest in puffing her way to the
presidency and neither have her rivals. Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, another potential candidate, was dubbed "buzzkill in chief"by the Huffington Post last month for calling marijuana a gateway that leads to
the abuse of other drugs. 56% of New York Democrats polled disagree with
him, including 68% of all voters under 29.

But as Hillary hits the speaking circuit, lines up fundraisers and ponders her presidential
pursuits, she should also turn on some music, pack a bowl and post the picture to Instagram.

About Me

Ryan Karben is the Principal of the Law Office of Ryan Karben and Excelsior Public Affairs. Ryan’s observations on the law, politics and policy have been quoted in newspapers across the nation, from the Christian Science Monitor to The New York Times.

Over 20 years in politics, government and law, Ryan has seen the good, the bad and the ugly of how to argue cases, pass legislation and win elections.

From 2007 to 2011, Ryan was Managing Director of Mercury Public Affairs, an international public strategy firm, where he implemented state government public strategy and lobbying efforts for clients in the environmental, energy and health care sectors.

Ryan was a New York State Assemblyman during the 2003-04 and 2005-06 legislative sessions, earning a reputation as an independent lawmaker. Ryan uncovered secret legal settlements for injuries caused by a prominent utility, wrote the law requiring greater disclosure of the carcinogen MTBE and was Chairman of the Subcommittee on Renewable Energy. Ryan also served as the Democratic Party’s Majority Leader on the Rockland County Legislature .

He was previously associated with the New York law firms Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle LLP and Simpson, Thacher and Bartlett.

Ryan graduated with honors from Columbia University School of Law in 1999.