NASA and FEMA hold exercise to simulate unavoidable asteroid impact

The Earth has been hit by large
objects many times over the ages, and it will take many more hits.
Unlike all the previous species on the planet, humans may actually be
able to do something about that. Technology gives us a shot at stopping
the worst-case scenario, something that experts from NASA
and FEMA recently got together to simulate. The emergency planning
exercise took place on October 25th. Unlike past simulations, the goal
of this one was not to mount a deflection mission; it was simply to
survive.

The exercise included representatives from
NASA, FEMA, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Department of Energy’s
National Laboratories, the US Air Force, and the California Governor’s
Office of Emergency Services. That last one will be more relevant when
you understand the nature of the threat. With enough time, NASA and JPL
have worked out various ways we might keep an asteroid from striking the
planet, but this experiment presented a different problem. With just
four years until impact, there isn’t time to stop it from happening.

The fictitious asteroid
is initially spotted by astronomers and given a 2% chance to impact
Earth on September 20, 2020. It’s not the largest object, but at between
300 and 800 feet (100-150 meters), it’s more than large enough to cause
widespread devastation wherever it hits. In the scenario presented to
the panel, the object is tracked for three months, during which time the
estimated chance of impact rises to 65%. After that, the asteroid
enters a blind spot caused by the sun, and we can’t track it for a
further four months. When it reappears in May of 2017, astronomers
confirm there is a 100% chance it will hit us. The area of impact is
calculated to be off the coast of southern California.

Attendees considered how to keep the public
aware of the escalating threat without causing a panic, and what
preparations could be made as an impact become more and more likely. The
team also needed to work out approaches to counter rumors that could
emerge as the impact grew closer. When the impact was deemed
unavoidable, authorities would be faced with a very difficult situation.
With no way to deflect the asteroid, it’s sure to cause a massive
tsunami that could wipe out a large swath of California’s west coast.
Emergency managers had to simulate a large-scale evacuation of millions
of people from the LA area.

In the end, participants learned a great deal
about how to plan for this sort of large-scale disaster scenario. The
ideal outcome is for NASA to deflect such an object. But the technology
to make that happen is still untested, and funding to monitor objects in
the sky is still far below what is needed to guarantee sufficient
warning. Hopefully we won’t ever have to evacuate entire cities because
of an asteroid impact, but you never know.