By-Elections in South Korea: Democracy Marches On

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In crucial
by-elections held on April 30 in South Korea, the main opposition
Grand National Party (GNP) won a resounding victory, taking five
out of the six available seats in the National Assembly. The
by-election results are a serious political blow to President Roh
Moo Hyun and his Uri Party, which was weakened in March when it
lost a slim parliamentary majority after five Uri legislators were
forced to resign for electoral law violations. The Uri Party's
failure in every race in the by-elections-including seven mayoral
and gubernatorial posts and 31 local council seats-will not only
change the power structure in the National Assembly for the next
three years, but also the nation's political landscape.

Meanwhile, the GNP
increased its seats in the National Assembly to 125, successfully
blocking the ruling Uri Party from regaining the majority in the
299-member parliament. The radical Democratic Labor Party (DLP) and
liberal Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) retained ten and nine
seats, respectively. With the remaining seat going to an
independent candidate, the 146-seat Uri Party, failed to gain a
single new seat in the Assembly.[1]

Impact on Domestic
Politics

The by-elections
are an important barometer of public opinion on the two-year-old
Roh administration and the Uri party. Their results may represent a
significant shift in public support for the Uri Party and its
platform agenda of sweeping reforms, such as the elimination of the
controversial National Security Law.

One reform that
may now be in jeopardy is the plan to build a new administrative
city to replace Seoul. President Roh's initial proposal to move the
capital was struck down by the constitutional courts last year.
Both he and his party, however, are continuing with a modified plan
to move some 40 central government offices, including 12
ministries, out of Seoul starting in 2012. The Uri Party's
inability to win elections even in President Roh's hometown
(Gongju-Yeongi in South Chungcheong province), which is to host the
new government facilities, may demonstrate serious public
skepticism. The plan will certainly face even stronger opposition
in the National Assembly with the GNP's new seats.

Although it is too
soon to assume that the weakened Uri Party will dissolve,
restructuring and a change in leadership are certain. The party may
attempt to form a coalition with the DLP or the MDP to gain back
the majority in the National Assembly. Notably, although they hold
few seats, the DLP and MDP can expect their influence to increase
as Uri and GNP woo their support for legislation. Whether or not
Uri or GNP is able to form a coalition majority, both will have to
look for support outside of their parties to pass any
legislation.

The GNP may find
it tempting to claim victory following the by-election, but public
rejection of Uri candidates was not necessarily a vote of
confidence for the GNP. The public remains distrustful of
politicians due to seemingly endless political scandals and
negative campaigning, even though reported campaign procedure
violations actually fell in this election.

Implications for Foreign
Policy

The elections are
unlikely to alter the South's policy of engagement and
reconciliation with North Korea. Specific aspects of engagement,
however, such as the amount and timing of aid, may shift. The GNP
takes a tougher stance on the North, while the Uri party advocates
moderation. The on-going nuclear weapons issue will likely polarize
public opinion even further.

For the United
States, the election results are ambiguous. The conservative GNP
has been critical of the progressive Uri Party's stance on the
U.S.-ROK alliance. While both President Roh and his party
officially support the alliance, many Uri members have expressed
skepticism of the bilateral relationship and are openly critical of
U.S. North Korea policy. The Uri Party has also expressed interest
in loosening South Korea's relationship with the United States in
favor of stronger relations with China. With the Uri Party's
weakened position in the Assembly, expect debate to flair on this
point, with uncertain results.

The by-election
results may also reflect public skepticism of the Uri Party's
foreign policy. President Roh and the Uri Party's desire to elevate
South Korea's relationship with China may be checked for now, but
not their vocal suspicions about Japan and its ambitions in the
region. In part, this reflects a non-partisan, nationalist public
sentiment that seeks a more independent role for South Korea in the
region. This attitude could have negative consequences for the
United States, which is working to promote a stronger U.S.-Japan
alliance and better relations between Seoul and Tokyo. These are
key facets of the U.S. response to China's rise and North Korea's
continued belligerence. In a sense, Uri's loss at the polls may be
a relief for Washington.

Conclusion

President Roh, who
is not eligible to run for a second term, faces many challenges
before the next presidential elections in December 2007. His
party's weakened position will make the road ahead even more
difficult. In addition to increased tensions over North Korea's
nuclear program, rising conflict with Japan over territory and
history, and ongoing uncertainty about China's role in the region,
South Korea's economic growth is expected to slow over the next
year.

On the bright
side, despite being a disappointment for Roh and the Uri Party, the
by-election proves that the Korean people are holding their leaders
to account for their policies and that democracy continues its
march forward in South Korea.

Balbina Y. Hwang is
Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at
The Heritage Foundation.

[1] Although Kim Won-Ki,
the National Assembly Speaker is a member of the Uri Party, he is
not counted as one of the 146 Uri representative members due to his
status as Speaker.