When Tropical Storm Lee hit last year, hydrologists were plotting a new inundation map for the Susquehanna River in the midstate.

The plan, which had been in the works for months, was to create a model that could mathematically predict what neighborhoods were going to flood, down to the block.

Lee destroyed homes, but it gave the researchers a valuable set of data that could save lives and property in the future.

View full sizeJOHN C. WHITEHEAD, The Patriot-NewsTony Mach looks a computer monitor show a satellite view of cloud tops at the National Weather Service in State College.

Within the next year, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission, the U.S. Geological Survey and other partner organizations hope to have their new map go live online. Similar maps already operating in upstate New York show the river forecast in real-time and use satellite imagery to illustrate where the flooding Susquehanna would be expected to crest.

Once finished, the model will provide a more concrete prediction for neighborhoods than what was possible last year. The hope is evacuation-weary residents will be motivated to move when necessary.

“It’s not the county emergency management person saying please evacuate,” said SRBC’s Susan Obleski. “They can see for themselves — ‘Hey, my house is going to flood.’ “

Federal, state and local emergency management teams have other improvements in mind for the next flood.

After Lee passed, the National Weather Service assessed government response to Lee up and down the river. Overall, the NWS found agencies did very well in tracking the storm, monitoring the river systems, coordinating evacuations and responses. But the organization did come up with a series of recommendations going forward:

On the afternoon of Sept. 8 last year, the Susquehanna was rising rapidly in northeast Pennsylvania, but the river gauge in Wilkes-Barre began reporting the river had leveled off at a crest of 38.5 feet.

City officials were nervously watching the gauge — the levee system was guaranteed to protect Wilkes-Barre from 41 feet of water —but by early morning Sept. 9, it was clear the gauge had malfunctioned. The USGS later determined the river had actually crested at a record 42.66 feet, 20 feet above flood stage. The levees barley contained the flood.

But not everyone involved in charting the river or communicating with emergency planners knew the Wilkes-Barre gauge was only functional to 38.5 feet, according to the report. As a result, even though some hydrologists knew the river was still rising — and emergency managers evacuated homes based on the higher-forecasted crest — the National Weather Service website continued to report the wrong information.

Since then, USGS has accounted for, and posted, the operational limits for every gauge in the country.

Had Lee been a stronger storm, it could have created more problems for communities just downstream of the Conowingo Dam in Maryland, according to the report.

Years earlier, the National Weather Service had created impact plans for the dam operators and the downstream communities. Before Lee, those plans had gotten little use. Many of the people familiar with them had retired or moved into new positions, leaving few officials with working knowledge of the plans.

Exelon Power, which owns the dam, is working with the weather service to help the downstream communities update their plans, said spokesman Robert Judge.

“During a high water event Exelon Power follows its established emergency notification system to alert area officials to the number of crest gates that may be opened so they may inform their residents,” Judge said.

Federal, state and local emergency offices often hold drills locally and regionally, but they don’t practice for large events that effect the entire basin, from New York to Maryland.

The report recommends emergency management teams stage a dry run.

Everyone agrees its a good idea, but so far, the logistics have proved too daunting.

“This will take a while to do,” said Bruce Budd, the Meteorologist-in-Charge for the National Weather Service office in State College.

Bob Fenner of the Middle Atlantic River Forecast CenterBob Fenner of the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center in State College talks about why the Wilkes-Barre river level gauge broke and how they were able to predict the Susquehanna River stage without it during Tropical Storm Lee.

This story is part of a week-long series from The Patriot-News looking at the aftermath of Tropical Storm Lee, the ongoing recovery, and lessons to be learned. To read the entire series, click here.

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