ABC Election Coverage: 2006 Queensland Election

Toowoomba North (Key Seat)

Toowoomba

Safe Labor 7.3%

MP

Profile

Toowoomba north of the central business district, including Wilsonton, North Toowoomba, Rockville, Mount Lofty and Harlaxton. Also includes more rural Highfields to the north.

History/Trivia

Toowoomba had a long history as a Labor town until the party lost both seats when wiped out at the 1974 election landslide. Toowoomba North was then held by the Liberal Party until the Coalition split in 1983. National held until 1989, it was won by Labor for a single term 1989-92 before reverting to the National Party. In 2001, the huge swing to Labor delivered Toowoomba North to Labor's Kerry Shine. Despite holding one of Labor's most marginal seats going into the 2004 election, Shine achieved a 5.4% swing. However, given this seat's history, his current margin looks somewhat inflated.

2-Party Booth Result

Labor majorities were recorded in 16 of the 18 booths in 2004. Labor's worst result was 38.3% at Fairholme College atop the escarpment at the eastern edge of Toowoomba. Labor's best result was 68.5% at the Harlaxton Neighbourhood Centre at the northern edge of Toowoomba.

Main Candidates

Sitting Labor MP Kerry Shine was a local solicitor before his election to Parliament. He was the Labor candidate in this normally unwinnable seat in 1998, and probably did not expect to win at his second attempt in 2001, and may even have been surprised to increase his margin by more than 5% in 2004. His National Party opponent is Toowoomba City Councillor Lyle Shelton, who was serving his second term on the Council until forced to stand down by the Beattie government's law that prevents sitting councillors holding their seats while running for state Parliament. He played a prominent part in the 'No' case at the recent Toowoomba sewage re-cycling referendum.

Issues and Polls

The aftermath of the Toowoomba sewage re-cycling referendum will flow through to the state election, with National candidate Lyle Shelton having chosen to back the successful 'No' case. One of the seats where Family First are recommending preferences to Labor, the only marginal Labor seat where they are doing so.

Assessment

The Labor margin in this seat is probably inflated, and this would be a seat to fall to the Nationals if there was a substantial swing. It is not the sort of seat Labor would ever hold in opposition. As to what will happen on 9 September, Lyle Shelton built quite a profile during the sewage referendum, but Kerry Shine has been a dogged sitting member, devoting Saturdays to getting out in his campaign caravan and meeting locals. One of the key seats for election night.