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Weighing the Effect of an Exit of Centrists

WASHINGTON — While the occupant of the White House and the composition of the next Congress are still to be decided, one thing is clear: there will be many fewer moderate politicians here next year.

A potent combination of Congressional redistricting, retirements of fed-up lawmakers and campaign spending by special interests is pushing out moderate members of both parties, leaving a shrinking corps of consensus builders.

A group of Democrats who are centrists, known as Blue Dogs, have been all but eviscerated from the House over the last few elections, and now three who have been in the Republicans’ cross hairs for years are fighting uphill battles for re-election.

Among Republicans, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine and Representative Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio, weary of partisan battles, chose to retire this year, and some, like Representative Charles Bass of New Hampshire, have found themselves moving away from the center to survive, a technique employed by Senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, who found it was too little too late and lost his primary campaign.

“We don’t have a Congress anymore, we have a parliament,” said Representative Jim Cooper of Tennessee, one of the last Blue Dogs. “We moderates are an endangered species, but we are also a necessary ingredient for any problem solving.”

The House is more polarized than at any time in the last century, according to models built by Keith Poole, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, and Howard Rosenthal, professor emeritus of social sciences at Princeton. The last time the Senate was this divided, according to the joint research, was a century ago.

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Representative Larry Kissell, a Democrat in a redistricted part of North Carolina, has seen his poll numbers drop in his campaign for re-election.Credit
Travis Dove for The New York Times

While Americans say they want an end to partisan bickering in Washington, Mr. Cooper said, they vote to maintain the system that has created it. “It’s like Hollywood movies,” he said. “Most people say there is too much violence and sex, but those are the only tickets that sell.”

Representatives Larry Kissell of North Carolina, John Barrow of Georgia and Jim Matheson of Utah, all Blue Dogs, appear to be losing ground in their races for re-election. Because of redistricting, their constituencies have become less familiar with them, making them easier targets for outside groups that have been spending heavily on ads to unseat them. Their poll numbers have been dropping throughout this cycle.

Many other more moderate Democrats, including Representatives Dan Boren of Oklahoma and Mike Ross of Arkansas, and Senators Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, chose to hand over their member pins rather than seek re-election.

In theory, the dearth of moderates means it will be even harder next year for Congress — which failed to put together even mundane measures like farm and highway legislation without a fight this session — to pass bills.

But Congress is facing so many potentially calamitous tax and budget issues that another theory is brewing: a combination of Democrats, once averse to changes to social welfare programs, and senior Republicans may form some sort of new deal-making consensus through sheer necessity to avoid large tax increases and significant military cuts.

“If Republicans think by embracing the Tea Party it is a loser politically,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat, “it may strengthen the hands of the mainstream conservatives” to make deals with the 10 or so moderate Democrats in the Senate who are interested in reforming Medicare and other programs.

Further, there is an emerging push on the Democratic side toward the center among many of their Senate candidates, like Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Tim Kaine in Virginia and Richard Carmona in Arizona, who all are running as pragmatic centrists willing to work with Republicans

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Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota, center, another moderate Democrat, chose not to seek re-election.Credit
Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

For this to happen, according to moderates from both parties and several Congressional experts, the next president will have to make conciliation a top priority.

“The next president has to channel Lyndon Johnson and seize the levers of power and make Congress work,” said former Representative Jane Harman, a moderate Democrat from California, who resigned last year to become the director of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “Obama talked about it and tried it briefly, but would sustained effort have helped with this Congress? I think so.”

The erosion of moderation in Congress started decades ago. The decennial Congressional redistricting, which has been done almost exclusively by state legislatures, has continued the creation of gerrymandered districts that keep competitive elections anomalies.

“Some candidates don’t even have to wake up on Election Day to win,” Mr. LaTourette said. “I have not seen yet a redistricting proposal that is anything other than trying to favor one side over the other.”

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former governor of California and a moderate Republican, devoted much of his political career to beating back partisanship through a redistricting process that was removed from the hands of legislators, and pushing a nonpartisan primary process in which the top two vote getters, regardless of parties, face off in general elections. This year, both came together in his state, after years of impediments thrown up by both parties.

“These are important steps that no one wanted to take,” Mr. Schwarzenegger said. “They said, ‘You can’t touch that!’ It is doable if you stay in there and work with good government groups, but you have to be aware that the parties will go after you.” He added, “Partisanship is the No. 1 enemy. We can’t move forward on the most important things plaguing our country.”

Outside groups pour loads of money into targeting candidates, particularly incumbents who are seen as disloyal to party positions, and members are pressured by groups to vote against bills that slide outside the window of party orthodoxy. “If you’re not 100 percent pure with that group or party, you’re targeted,” Mr. Boren said.

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Among Republicans, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, weary of partisan battles, is also retiring this year.Credit
Luke Sharrett for The New York Times

Mr. Cooper and Mr. LaTourette recounted their extreme disappointment when they joined forces to bring a budget bill based on the recommendations of the deficit commission known as Bowles-Simpson to the House floor.

That day, both men said, they had at least 100 members from both parties with them; by the time of the evening vote, that number had been whittled to a mere 38. “Tons of people said really great things about it,” Mr. Cooper said, “but when the interest groups kicked in, they dramatically changed. One member told me his favorite lobbyist would be fired if he voted for it.”

President Obama’s decision early in his presidency to allow the Democratic-controlled Congress to craft legislation like the health care law while he remained at arm’s length did not help, members on both sides said. Neither did his lack of engagement with Republicans when they were in the minority, they said.

“Obama’s biggest failing has been not reaching out to Congress,” said former Representative Mike Castle, a moderate Republican from Delaware who lost a Senate bid two years ago. “I remember being at a White House meeting with Rahm Emanuel with other moderate Republicans,” he said, referring to the former White House chief of staff, “and the president came out and spoke to us for about 30 minutes. It was a good conversation, mostly about Medicare. I don’t know if anyone in that group ever heard from him again.”

Despite the increasing polarization, the “fiscal cliff” facing Congress at the end of the year, when a series of tax increases and steep budget cuts are set to automatically begin, may force some departing members to move more to the middle, simply because the implications are too grave.

The outcome of the presidential election will almost certainly have an impact on the political interplay of the next Congress. Should Mr. Obama prevail, said members and officials from leadership offices of both parties, many Democrats may feel more compelled to attack the problems with social programs. Also, many senior Republicans, once considered among the most conservative, may feel empowered to make deals to stave off large cuts to the military.

But then again, many, like Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, are facing re-election in 2014, and already feel heat from the right. Mr. McConnell, who once backed Senator Rand Paul’s primary challenger in his home state, recently hired one of Mr. Paul’s aides to run his campaign.

Correction: October 10, 2012

An article in some editions on Tuesday about the declining number of moderates from both parties in the House of Representatives misstated the academic affiliation of Keith Poole, who has done extensive research about the House. He is a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, not a professor emeritus at the University of Rochester.

A version of this article appears in print on October 9, 2012, on page A10 of the New York edition with the headline: Weighing The Effect Of an Exit Of Centrists. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe