The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

Loading ...

Loading ...

This story appears in the {{article.article.magazine.pretty_date}} issue of {{article.article.magazine.pubName}}. Subscribe

Manny Pacquiao will step back into the right November 10 against an opponent still to be determined. (Image credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife)

Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather have dominated the boxing scene for the past five years, as they sucked up most of the attention and the money in the sport. Their recent fights almost always draw at least one million pay-per-view buyers, and they were the two highest-paid athletes in the world between June 2011 and June 2012, with earnings of $62 million and $85 million, respectively.

Audiences gravitate to their fights because of their charismatic personalities and ring dominance. Mayweather is undefeated in his pro career and Pacquiao recently had a seven-year, 15 fight winning streak.

But everything changed in June, when Pacquiao lost a controversial split decision to Timothy Bradley. Some ringside observers had Bradley winning only one round in the 12-round bout, yet a loss is a loss. The Bradley loss came on the heels of Pacquiao's November, 2011 decision over Juan Manuel Marquez, where many fight fans thought Marquez was robbed of the win.

Pacquiao has settled on November 10 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for his next bout, according to The Ring. His opponent is still to be determined with the leading contenders being Bradley, Marquez for a fourth time or Miguel Cotto, who lost to Mayweather in May. Pacquiao is in line for another payday in the $25 million range. Yet, all three of the top candidates have the potential to defeat Pacquiao, which could permanently end Pacquiao's place as a mega superstar in boxing that can draw a massive PPV audience no matter the opponent.

The Pacquiao-Bradley fight drew slightly more than 900,000 PPV buyers, which was the lowest total of Pacquiao's last four fights. Mayweather continues to draw huge audiences no matter who is in the other corner. His past six fights have averaged 1.4 million PPV buys, which is a threshold only one Pacquiao fight has reached.

Oscar De La Hoya remained a PPV draw at the end of his career despite alternating wins and losses for his final seven bouts, but he required popular foes like Pacquiao and Mayweather to draw significant PPV numbers. The De La Hoya-Mayweather bout remains the best-selling PPV fight ever with 2.4 million buyers.

A loss in November would also severely take away from the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight that sports fans crave. They have been the undisputed best pound-for-pound fighters in recent years. The two fighters and their camps have sparred outside the ring for more than three years over drug testing, the purse split, timing and everything else under the sun. The fight has the potential to generate a record-breaking $250 million in revenue.

There are glimmers of hope for the megafight according to Pacquiao promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank, who spoke to the BoxingScene.com on his way back from visiting Pacquiao in the Philippines this week.

Arum was confident that the issue of a revenue split which proved to be one of the stumbling blocks in the past could be resolved. Arum said “I know how to handle that with the Mayweather people and do the best deal possible and then get back to Manny."

The entry of Mayweather’s close friend and associate Curtis Jackson, popularly known as 50 Cent, into the promotional business, has been a plus according to Arum who told us “he appears to me to be a real businessman with no agenda like some of the other guys so I think we can get a deal done.”

The second Arum quote is a dig at Top Rank rival Golden Boy Promotions, founded by De La Hoya, which has worked with Mayweather in recent fights. Arum might be confident he can cut a deal for a Mayweather fight, but he needs Pacquiao to take care of business in November for the bout to be a massively anticipated event that spits out millions for all involved.