Viewing the past to predict the future

The General Social Survey offers a look at the real-time changes in American opinion, along with things that have stayed the same, and hints for the future:

EQUALITY

Some of the opinions voiced in the 1972 survey are rarely uttered today.

Back then, nearly 4 in 10 nonblacks agreed with the idea that whites had the right to keep blacks "out of their neighborhoods." A quarter of nonblacks said they wouldn't vote for a black man for president, and 26 percent of all adults wouldn't back a well-qualified woman.

Now the president of the United States is black and a woman is the most-discussed prospect for 2016. The GSS dropped those three questions in the 1990s as results began to show they were no longer contentious.

Tyler Pelkey, an 18-year-old student from Lunenburg, said that while strides have been made in racial equality, there's still work to be done.

"I don't think things are nearly as bad as they were 50 years ago, so it's headed in the right direction," Pelkey noted. "But we still use racial terms for slang words and I think that will change."

As 2050 approaches, one central component of U.S. race relations will change: Non-Hispanic whites will no longer make up the majority of the population, according to Census Bureau projections.

LOVE AND FAMILY

In 1972, the sexual revolution was ablaze. That year the Supreme Court ruled unmarried couples had a right to birth control. "The Joy of Sex" manual was published.

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And then there's "Maude," the sitcom character who shocked Americans by getting an abortion.

Still, a third of Americans back then disapproved of a woman working, if she had a husband to support her. The GSS no longer bothers asking that one.

Americans today are more worried about divorce and the increasing number of never-married moms. Nearly 4 out of 10 women who gave birth in 2011 were unmarried, according to the census.

"It's tough to see families with just one parent involved," said Jean Thompson, 46, a married stay-at-home mother of two. "I don't know if I'd be able to be the mother I need to be under those circumstances."

Despite the social turmoil, 98 percent of married people today say their union is happy, including two-thirds who are "very happy." And marital fidelity remains an ideal endorsed by nearly all Americans.

The political debate over abortion shows no signs of being resolved, more than 40 years after Roe vs. Wade. Young people today are somewhat more conservative on the issue than middle-aged Americans.

Gay marriage, on the other hand, appears headed toward future acceptance. Young people are solidly in favor, while opposition is strongest among the oldest Americans.

GOD

Through those decades of moral tumult, the vast majority of Americans held onto belief in God or some higher power. Fewer than 1 in 10 say there's no God or no way to know.

Yet ties to organized religion are slipping.

Since 1972, the number of Americans who name no faith preference has quadrupled to 20 percent.

"I haven't gone to church on a regular basis in a long time," Thompson said. "There's so much going on in the world that it's hard to find time. I'd still say that I have faith that there's something out there watching out for us."

MONEY

Recession, a stock-market crash, runaway inflation and an oil crisis marred the U.S. economy in the early 1970s. Forty years later, those look like the good times to many.

Before the Great Recession hit in 2007, most people consistently said their family finances were getting better instead of worse. That's not the case anymore. Americans are more likely to consider themselves "lower class" than ever in GSS history -- 8 percent say that.

"With the cost of living continuing to rise and wages not doing the same, it's tough to get ahead of things," Laura Archer, 31, of Fitchburg, who works in retail sales. "More and more people I know are struggling with money. There's definitely a big divide between the rich and the poor."

Whites are especially pessimistic about their prospects. Black and Hispanic optimism surged after Barack Obama became the first black president in 2008.

Overall, about half of Americans still believe their children will have a better standard of living than they do.

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