Snowy winter could mean saturated spring in Oakland County

Alisa Bell, of Waterford, next to a cracked wall in her backyard she blames on flooding in spring, pictured Thursday February 13, 2014. She and many others fear this spring will be among the worst with so much snow to melt. (Vaughn Gurganian-The Oakland Press)

Alisa Bell, of Waterford, next to some of her washed-away asphalt driveway she blames on flooding caused by runoff from commercial properties behind her, pictured Thursday February 13, 2014. (Vaughn Gurganian-The Oakland Press)

flooding along the clinton river

Jeremy Geist, an ecologist at the Clinton River Watershed Council, said communities along the river, such as Sterling Heights, Clinton, Macomb and Shelby townships, Utica and Mount Clemens are most susceptible to flooding due to their urban development.

More development means more concrete, more asphalt and less natural spaces for the snow melt to get absorbed by the ground and slowly discharged into the river system. When there is a surge of rainfall or snow melt in those communities, the river levels elevate very fast and flooding issues soon follow.

“I like to compare it to the Au Sable River. The Au Sable is surrounded by acres and acres of undeveloped forest. So when it rains or the snow melts, it is absorbed into the ground and is slowly released into the river as groundwater,” he said. “The Au Sable has a pretty consistent water level year-round. Even if there is a dry spring, you still have groundwater draining into the river.” — Don Gardner of Digital First Media

Metro Detroit has received more than 70 inches of snow to date, and that’s why Waterford Township Supervisor Gary Wall said he’s hoping for a gradual, warming spring and a slow melt.

Otherwise, “we’re going to have a mess on our hands.”

About 11 of Waterford’s 34 lakes are connected somehow to the dam-controlled Clinton River. Wall said he’s not as concerned about lake or river flooding as about runoff in paved areas.

“When you take an area and pave it, you have no absorption anymore. You have runoff, and where’s it going to go? To the lowest point.”

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Township resident Alisa Bell knows that all too well. She lives one street south of Huron Street between Josephine Avenue and Lynn Street, and has experienced flooding due to runoff from commercial parking lots that border her backyard.

“It costs me so much money to live here. I’ve had three furnaces — that’s not normal,” she said, explaining that water runs into her home’s furnace vents. She’s also replaced three hot water heaters for the same reason.

Other homes in the tight-knit neighborhood have experienced flooding, too. Bell has contacted the township and Oakland County, asking for sandbags to prevent the rush of water during the spring thaw and heavy summer rains.

The problem began when adjacent businesses paved over green spaces that once absorbed water, Bell said.

She summed up the problem: “We’re downhill.”

The science behind spring

The National Weather Service in White Lake plans to release its spring forecast in about two weeks.

“The water’s been sitting on everybody’s lawn for the whole winter, just in the form of snow,” said Danny Costello, a hydrologist and meteorologist at the weather agency.

“When it’s liquid water, people to tend to look at it as a flood, but it’s been sitting there the whole winter,” he said with a laugh.

This year’s snow has had a high water content, and the frost line in the ground is also deeper than usual, Costello said.

“Usually, the ground is frozen every winter when you’re coming out of it. But, this year, as we slowly start thawing the ground from above, it could take a lot longer to get a thaw all the way through to where water can soak straight down. The concern is we really won’t have much absorption in the ground until we pretty much get the snow pack down to where warmer air can start thawing it.”

Another potential problem: Thick ice on lakes and rivers, which can cause ice jam flooding.

“Even with small creeks or drains, you can really run into that problem this year.”

Costello said an area’s snow pack is termed “ripe” when it’s about to melt. Most spring flooding occurs from mid-March to mid-April.

“When you first start warming up a snow pack, it really doesn’t release water,” he said. “The general rule is that a snowpack is 25 to 30 percent water, then you start melting it until it can’t hold any more water. That’s when water starts leaking out of the snowpack. We call it ripe.”

The best-case scenario this spring “would be sunny, windy, warm days above freezing with dry air. You get more sublimation. The snow just goes from solid to gas,” Costello said. Cool temperatures at night that slow the melting process are also preferred, he said.

“That process would give us a sloppy spring snow melt, but nothing really major. The problem (is) when it gets warm and we just start dumping rain on it.”

Oakland County, home to the headwaters for major rivers and many lakes and marshland areas, doesn’t have the flooding issues that the Grand River, Rouge River and Huron River do, Costello said.

“It’s more just marshlands and low-lying areas filling up with water overflowing,” he said. “Anybody who lives on a lake or close to water and they’re somewhat susceptible to a moderate rise in water levels should be leery this spring.”

For residents in low-lying areas with sump pumps that run often, Costello said now is the time to prepare.