At midnight there were 11 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 9 low level C class events were recorded during the
day.

Region 10175 decayed further and could become spotless today.
Region 10176 was quiet and stable.
Region 10177 decayed further losing some penumbral area and most of the small spots. Flare:
C2.5 at 06:35 UTC.
Region 10179 decayed into spotless plage again.
Region 10180 developed early in the day, then lost some of the newly emerged spots. With magnetic delta structures in the
largest leading and trailing penumbrae there is still a chance of a major flare. Flares: C2.8
at 09:04 UTC.
Region 10182 was quiet and stable.
Region 10185 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10186 decayed quickly and will likely become spotless today.
Region 10187 decayed and could become spotless today.
Region 10188 developed slowly and quietly. Most of the development occurred in the trailing spot section. There appears to
be a small and weak magnetic delta structure in the northeastern corner of the trailing penumbra.
Region 10189 developed slowly early in the day, then began to decay slowly. The region could soon become spotless.
New region 10190 emerged early in the day, developed quickly early on, then decayed slowly during the latter half of the
day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 5-7: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

The southernmost extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 7. A coronal hole is
rotating into view at the southeast limb near the equator and will likely be in a geoeffective position on November 12-13.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 7. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 8-9 and quiet to active, possibly with minor storm
intervals on November 10-11. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10172

2002.10.27

S16W88

plage

10174

2002.10.29

S26W60

plage

10175

2002.10.29

2

1

N14W70

0030

HSX

10176

2002.10.29

1

1

N10W42

0120

HSX

10177

2002.10.30

14

5

N18W36

0210

DAO

10179

2002.11.01

2

S01W08

0010

AXX

became spotless
early in the day

10180

2002.11.01

66

61

S10W14

0590

FKC

beta-gamma-delta

10181

2002.11.02

S07W21

plage

10182

2002.11.02

1

1

S18E02

0070

HSX

10183

2002.11.03

N19W76

plage

10184

2002.11.03

S06W01

plage

10185

2002.11.03

19

15

S12E22

0190

DAO

10186

2002.11.05

5

1

N20W26

0030

CRO

only an AXX group
at midnight with an
area of 0000.

10187

2002.11.06

4

1

N07W07

0020

BXO

only an AXX group
at midnight with an
area of 0000.

10188

2002.11.06

16

21

N11E07

0110

DAO

beta-gamma-delta?

10189

2002.11.06

2

1

N14E43

0020

BXO

classification was
HRX
at midnight

10190

2002.11.07

7

5

S22E54

0030

BXO

classification was
CAO at midnight

S20

emerged on
2002.10.31

N15W53

plage

S25

emerged on
2002.11.05

N15W07

plage

Total spot count:

139

113

SSN:

259

223

Monthly solar data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.10

207.6

125.5

114.0 (-0.1)

2001.11

210.6

106.5

115.5 (+1.5)

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.01

226.6

114.1

113.5 (-1.1)

2002.02

205.0

107.4

114.7 (+1.2)

2002.03

179.5

98.4

113.4 (-1.3)

2002.04

189.8

120.7

110.5 (-2.9)

2002.05

178.4

120.8

(108.2 predicted, -2.3)

2002.06

148.7

88.3

(104.5 predicted, -3.7)

2002.07

173.5

99.9

(99.6 predicted, -4.9)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

(95.6 predicted, -4.0)

2002.09

175.8

109.3

(91.8 predicted, -3.8)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

(87.7 predicted, -4.1)

2002.11

175.8 (1)

46.4 (2)

(82.4 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.