While the CoC is technically in the Eastern Caribbean. The Main convection is slightly separated and over the Atlantic Ocean. The terrain doesn't appear to be influencing the system a whole lot. Based on the Eye dropsonde earlier. The drop did show SSW winds a the 4900 foot level. But that could be due to a lop-sided storm.

That almost sounds like Mike though it might miss the weakness?It remains to be seen.I have felt this season the models have had a definite affinity to want to move all system to the right no matter how weak they are even when the UL winds go W.

Current San Juan radar does show that - for now, at least - Irene has resumed a due west track. Visible loop also confirms the due west motion. The dryness that I saw on the AVN loop a couple of hours ago has reduced somewhat, too... and outflow to the north is incredible right now. That would be disrupted if the LLC stays south of Hispanola, and really disrupted if it goes over the mountains of the D.R.

I agree Scott but the models always seem to tilt right.The movement is definitly started to the due W ATTM and I am starting to think she's going to go S of the Islands which if this pans out is a concern?

I wonder if Recon will recover to San Juan or St Croix. St Croix is just west of the Center and looks like it will pass over the Island. Turn on the instruments and measure from the ground.... Nah, never mind.

Looking at the sat loops, it appears that Irene is wobbling along a generally WNW track - Jog to the NW followed by a jog to the W, repeat. At any rate, the interactions with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and potentially Cuba will likely keep the system weak. Depending on a turn to a more northerly direction - when and where - I don't see a chance for strengthening much unless Irene goes over the Bahamas and stays East of Florida.

The shift north is better news for Florida, as chances are going down for a landfall there, worse news for South Carolina/Georgia though. Still if the trends continue the recurve/not recurve chances approach 50/50 (Right now odds favor it not recurving, but that is dropping too.) The NHC's general cone is still good, however.

Looks like the recon took the "look out the window, guys" viewpoint.
While the last vortex fix showed a due northwest shift in the LLC... the radar appears to me to still show an almost due west motion of the apparently circulation. This could just be my eyes, but it could indicate that the radar is showing a MLC which is not well stacked with the LLC. The most recent visible image, however, appears to show an eye-like pinhole where I estimate that the LLC is (could be dry air - water vapor image shows dry air in the southern part of the circulation).
I think it's a bit early to tell much of anything from the possible short-term northward shift, though. It could shift back to the west in a few hours.

I think its much to soon to say whether or not its going further west into eastern Gulf, Up Floirda (NHC currently), or up Florida east coast. I think it will become more clear in next 24-48 hours. I agree with current NHC track for now. But I am a little more concerned about the intensity especially late in period but again we won't know how Irene will interact with mountains or stair step its way around the higher elevations. Time will tell...

The outflow on the northern side of the system has the look of a western Pacific storm, the south side, not so much, with the pressure drop the center may be on its way to stabilizing. But if it were to recenter again, it may be further northward to match the pattern. Still it is going to be a nasty evening in Puerto Rico.

If the poleward outflow takes over, it would tend to draw it north of Hispaniola, but with the ridge holding above it, it brings more risk toward the Carolinas vs Florida, abut at the same time the chance of a full recurve from the US goes up a bit (still unfortunately an outlier at this time since a trough that would be needed to kick it out just doesn't seem to be coming). There is still quite a bit up in the air with the system, but it appears the storm may trend toward the eastern/right side of the forecast cone. The track at 5PM likely won't change much since you would need a few runs of the models to keep a trend, especially with this system.

Looks like Irene is forming an eyewall as we speak and it is showing up pretty good on SJU long range radar. The models have also seemed to move a little north with several only skimming the NE coast of the DMR.

Irene's center getting ready to pass right over st Croix as we speak, lowest pressure 1003-1004 there right now and they are just west of the center with sustained northerly winds around 30mph at some of the northern coast personal weather stations. It looks as though Irene maybe getting bit stronger based on radar with center closing off some. It looks like a nasty night in Puerto Rico tonight as Irene's center looks to pass over the southern coast of that island. Side note models back to the east on latest runs, but I expect more of this for next 24-48 hours as I am still concerned that that trough does not look overly deep and not so sure about a hard turn north but time will tell FL to Carolina's need to watch closely.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dl...zoom=&time=

Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands (CHSV3) has winds out of north at 29 gusts to 37mph with pressure down to 1002 mb. This station is located on northeast side of island of St Croix.

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