Sports Takes and Predictions

Patriots Meet Steelers for Control of AFC

Here in NFL week 10 it is quite clear that the three biggest games all take place in the evening – the spectacular Ravens-Falcons matchup on Thursday night, New England invading Pittsburgh on Sunday night and the Eagles visiting the Redskins on Monday night. When the Patriots battle the Steelers the winner will have immediate control of the AFC.

Expected to be among the most productive offenses in the NFL, the Patriots have often struggled with the ball. They come into this game with the 15th ranked running game (not a surprise) and the 17th ranked passing game (definitely a surprise) in the NFL. They also suffered a shocking loss in Cleveland last Sunday. Peyton Hillis gouged the New England defense, running for 184 yards on 29 carries. The Browns D also held the Patriots in check, allowing only 68 yards on 20 carries and limiting Tom Brady to 224 yards and 19 completions on 36 attempts.

To win the Patriots will have to beat on Ben Roethlisberger

After the way the Steelers played the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger, I though his addition would lead to them destroying every team they faced. That has not been the case at all. They’ve played well enough to win three out of four and they do have the number one rushing defense in the NFL by a wide margin, but two of those three wins were one score margins with one being the controversial victory over Miami. They have let up quite a few passing yards in their last three games when you factor out the sack yardage – 248 to Cincinnati, 305 to New Orleans and 257 to the now benched Chad Henne and Miami.

The Patriots win if: They blitz early and often and get to Roethlisberger. New England is way down the NFL sacks ranks with only 13, but they need to get to Big Ben. If they don’t he will pick them apart.

The Steelers win if: They keep the Patriots passing game in front of them and brutalize the receivers after they catch the ball. New England does not have an established deep threat and Brady is being forced to dink and dunk his way to the end zone. He doesn’t mind that, but the receivers will if they get lit up every time they touch the ball.

Who do I like: Steelers 23-13

Why: I think Pittsburgh is a much better team than New England and you can bet Heinz Field is going to be rocking on Sunday night. I think Belichick will fix some of the deficiencies in the run defense but I expect Rashard Mendenhall to still get some big yardage. I don’t think the Patriots will get enough of a pass rush to knock Roethlisberger off his game. The Steelers will be hitting the New England receivers hard and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a ball or two or three bounce out of a receiver’s hands and right to Troy Polamalu.

What are your thoughts on this big matchup? Do you agree with me that the Steelers will win or do you see the Patriots pulling off the upset?