Grant: Rangers enter off-season with some big decisions to make

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A LOOK AT WHO'S LIKELY TO RETURN FROM THE RANGERS' 2011 ROSTER -- Though the 2011 season is still fresh in our minds, the Rangers' front office is looking ahead to ready the roster for run at a World Series next year. SportsDayDFW's Ryan Jones offers a look at which players are likely coming back and which are headed out the door in 2012.

ARLINGTON — In those first few moments after the World Series ended, while the confetti was still floating and the champagne corks were popping, an apoplectic Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and some of his top aides watched it all unfold from the losers’ dugout.

They watched St. Louis celebrate a world championship that only 24 hours earlier had seemed to be in the Rangers hands. They had all the same flashbacks — of pitches, plays and chances gone awry — as their fans.

“I wanted to take it all in,” Daniels said Monday during his end-of-season press conference. “I wanted to sit there and reflect on 2011, everything that went into it and then leave it there and move on. Today starts 2012, as far as we are concerned.”

In truth, it started Saturday afternoon, maybe 12 hours after the dazed Rangers returned from St. Louis with a staff meeting to wrap up old business and start focusing on contract talks, free agency and figuring out just what more is needed to get one more out.

As they try to prepare for a run at becoming the first team since the 1998-2001 New York Yankees to go to three straight World Series, the Rangers face a similar set of issues as those Yankees. They must first secure long-term deals with their young, but quickly maturing, nucleus.

Identifying and retaining the core

The turn-of-the-century Yankees dynasty was built around a homegrown core of talent that stayed together for well more than a decade: shortstop Derek Jeter, starter Andy Pettitte, closer Mariano Rivera and catcher Jorge Posada.

The Rangers have a similar situation with shortstop Elvis Andrus, starter Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz, who may start or close in 2012.

Andrus is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time this winter and will see his contract start to exponentially increase over the following three seasons. Holland and Feliz will be eligible in 2013.

If the Rangers don’t start securing players to long-term deals, they are likely to see a steady procession march right into free agency and off to other teams.

It’s a situation they face with C.J. Wilson this winter, with Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli next winter and with Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler following 2013.

So, while the Rangers expect their $96 million payroll to increase for 2012, Daniels sees it increasing more from internal contracts than external deals.

“Any sort of significant financial investment, our mind-set is to look internally first,” Daniels said. “Two years ago, we had a very young club that overachieved, but the reality is that over next two, three or four years, our core guys have a chance to reach free agency. We want to make sure we retain the core, the guys responsible for getting us here. Any free agent from the outside is going to be looked at through that prism — how will that impact what players we can keep here.”

The Rangers would love to get a deal done with Andrus. The problem: He’s represented by agent Scott Boras. Boras is not a fan of negotiating away his player’s right to free agency. It’s likely to be an uphill battle.

Upgrading the starting rotation

What became clear during the postseason is the Rangers’ clearly lack a true No. 1 starter.

C.J. Wilson proved over and over that he could not go toe-to-toe with the best of the best in big-game situations. Yet, after CC Sabathia agreed to return to the Yankees on Monday, there aren’t many more attractive free agents than Wilson.

Because of it, he might end up getting ace money and terms from someone. And while the Rangers would like to keep him, they aren’t likely to come close to the offer they made Cliff Lee last year in either annual salary ($20 million) or years (six).

“Pitching is priority No. 1 and always will be,” Daniels said. “It’s a large part of why we have had the success we’ve had the last couple of years. We’ve got to make a decision and have a discussion with C.J., but we’ve also got a lot of good arms at or near the big league level.”

Which brings us to Feliz.

Daniels said the Rangers will once again consider the possibility of moving Feliz to the starting rotation. They’ve experimented with that in each of the last two spring trainings before ultimately deciding he could help the team more as a closer.

The Rangers will go through the same discussions this winter. The difference is: They will arrive at a decision on his future before spring training.

“I hate spring training decisions,” Daniels said. “You make as many bad ones as good ones. Sometimes you get bailed out and Nelson Cruz clears waivers. You are making decisions based on how guys fared against Class A players. I just don’t think it’s the best way to make decisions for the organization. And for the young player, you want to let him know what role to prepare for.”

If Wilson stays or the Rangers’ land potential Japanese import Yu Darvish, perhaps Feliz stays in the bullpen. If the Rangers lose out on both, it might make more sense to move Feliz to the rotation — that is if they can find a closer replacement.

“The unknown is whether he can start,” Daniels said. “The general feeling is he’s capable of it. We know he’s capable of being a lockdown guy at the back of the bullpen. It’s just a matter of how we want to do things. It’s certainly an intriguing option. I think there are some other dominoes that are involved with that decision.”

Finding help through free agency

While the free agent pitching options are limited — Roy Oswalt and Mark Buehrle might be the best of the class — there is an extremely intriguing option in Japan’s Yu Darvish.

It’s also an extremely complicated situation.

His team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, could put the 25-year-old righthander’s U.S. negotiating rights up for bid in a process called posting. Interested teams would offer sealed bids and the highest bidder would win the ability to negotiate a contract with Darvish, considered perhaps the best Japanese pitching talent since Hideo Nomo. The winning team would have 30 days to negotiate with Darvish on a deal.

In 2006, the Rangers bid on the winter’s big import, Daisuke Matsuzaka. They thought they made an aggressive bid — approximately $26 million. Boston won the right to negotiate with a bid almost twice that much. When the Red Sox and Matsuzaka finally agreed on a deal, the total investment was more than $100 million. Matsuzaka has won a total of 13 games over the last three seasons combined.

The Rangers have become much more of a presence in Japan since then. It produced Colby Lewis, who has back-to-back 200-inning seasons for a total of a $5 million investment (it grew to $8.25 million Monday when Lewis’ 2012 option was picked up).

“We’ve done well with the under-the-radar guy,” Daniels said. “I think that the high profile guys fall under the category of major investments. We have to look at our core guys first, but we are all about finding talent every way possible.”

Pipe dreams

When the Rangers didn’t prevail on Cliff Lee to return last winter, they turned to Adrian Beltre to help improve the team with defense and offense.

Might the same happen this year with monster first basemen Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder on the market?

Probably not.

Though the talent level is enormous, their contract demands will be equally as large. Both would likely command contracts of eight to 10 years and at well above $20 million per season. That is a good way to bog down the payroll quickly.

In addition, the Rangers believe Mitch Moreland is still their first baseman of the future. Though Moreland struggled badly in the second half, hitting just .224 from the All-Star break through the end of the World Series, Daniels revealed Monday that the player was dealing with wrist tendinitis that likely diminished his performance. He will be re-evaluated this week.

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