i hate to say this but based on regular season's even from the past, i think it will be a repeat for Disco Dirk, not that i want that to happen, if it were up to me i'd personally want Carmello winning it but we all know thats not happening so i'll just go with Dirk.

i hate to say this but based on regular season's even from the past, i think it will be a repeat for Disco Dirk, not that i want that to happen, if it were up to me i'd personally want Carmello winning it but we all know thats not happening so i'll just go with Dirk.

I'd stop watching basketball if Dirk wins it again...seriously, no chance he get s it. It's already a disgrace as it is.

1. LeBron James. Although the Cavs were swept in the Finals and had one of the easiest trips to the Conference Finals in recent history, the fact that he appeared in the Finals will probably stick in the back of voters' minds. That might have come into play with Nowitzki appearing in the Finals in 2006 and then winning the MVP in 2007. And, many have wanted to crown him for a while now. If the Cavs improve from 50 wins, and James improves, at least statistically, from last season (averaging 30 PPG would help), he’ll be the favorite.

2. Steve Nash. I hope they're tired of voting for Nash, but I doubt it. If the 2005 and 2006 MVPs and a close 2nd place finish last season are any indication, I'm sure he'll be right up there again. The Suns will likely win a lot of games again and lose to the Spurs in the playoffs, too.

3. Kevin Garnett. If the Celtics finish around the top in the East, I think he'll have a good chance. It's difficult to say how it'll turn out, though. He might have a statistical drop off, and the MVP voters care a lot about stats. Teammates Paul Pierce and Ray Allen might steal some votes from him, too.

4. Kobe Bryant. Assuming the Lakers make the playoffs, he'll probably finish around 3rd to 5th as usual since 2002. With the off-season distractions and trade requests and no significant improvement on the team, I don't see his chances at the MVP improving.

5. Dirk Nowitzki. The 2007 1st Round exit is going to hurt his repeat chances, in addition to the probability that the Mavs will not improve upon, nor repeat their 67-win mark of last season. The Mavs will still have one of the best records, however, so Dirk will have to place high in the voting.

6. Tim Duncan. I don't think he has a chance at being awarded the MVP, but he'll likely place near or within the top 5 again. Duncan and the Spurs care more about the postseason, so Duncan will probably continue to play only about 34 MPG, barely average 20 and 10, and not care about regular-season awards. The Spurs will win enough and enough voters will appreciate the concept to get him some votes, though

Some of the others mentioned don't seem to have a remote chance. Shaq is on the decline, and he has a long history of missing large chunks of the season.

Wade has some health issues of his own, and Shaq's health and apparent decline are almost as important to his MVP chances. When the Heat won 52 games in 2006, Wade only finished 6th in the MVP voting and received no 1st place votes, and I don't see him improving upon that season.

Paul Pierce isn't even the best player on his team anymore, although he'll probably receive some MVP attention now that the Celtics are prone to winning.

Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady will probably always cancel each other out, even if the Rockets do win a few more games.

Iverson, like McGrady, is taking a cut in his stats now, so he's out. If the Nuggets do improve, maybe Carmelo Anthony will receive some attention, but I don't see them improving enough for this to happen--top 5 at most.

1. LeBron James. Although the Cavs were swept in the Finals and had one of the easiest trips to the Conference Finals in recent history, the fact that he appeared in the Finals will probably stick in the back of voters' minds. That might have come into play with Nowitzki appearing in the Finals in 2006 and then winning the MVP in 2007. And, many have wanted to crown him for a while now. If the Cavs improve from 50 wins, and James improves, at least statistically, from last season (averaging 30 PPG would help), he’ll be the favorite.

2. Steve Nash. I hope they're tired of voting for Nash, but I doubt it. If the 2005 and 2006 MVPs and a close 2nd place finish last season are any indication, I'm sure he'll be right up there again. The Suns will likely win a lot of games again and lose to the Spurs in the playoffs, too.

3. Kevin Garnett. If the Celtics finish around the top in the East, I think he'll have a good chance. It's difficult to say how it'll turn out, though. He might have a statistical drop off, and the MVP voters care a lot about stats. Teammates Paul Pierce and Ray Allen might steal some votes from him, too.

4. Kobe Bryant. Assuming the Lakers make the playoffs, he'll probably finish around 3rd to 5th as usual since 2002. With the off-season distractions and trade requests and no significant improvement on the team, I don't see his chances at the MVP improving.

5. Dirk Nowitzki. The 2007 1st Round exit is going to hurt his repeat chances, in addition to the probability that the Mavs will not improve upon, nor repeat their 67-win mark of last season. The Mavs will still have one of the best records, however, so Dirk will have to place high in the voting.

6. Tim Duncan. I don't think he has a chance at being awarded the MVP, but he'll likely place near or within the top 5 again. Duncan and the Spurs care more about the postseason, so Duncan will probably continue to play only about 34 MPG, barely average 20 and 10, and not care about regular-season awards. The Spurs will win enough and enough voters will appreciate the concept to get him some votes, though

Some of the others mentioned don't seem to have a remote chance. Shaq is on the decline, and he has a long history of missing large chunks of the season.

Wade has some health issues of his own, and Shaq's health and apparent decline are almost as important to his MVP chances. When the Heat won 52 games in 2006, Wade only finished 6th in the MVP voting and received no 1st place votes, and I don't see him improving upon that season.

Paul Pierce isn't even the best player on his team anymore, although he'll probably receive some MVP attention now that the Celtics are prone to winning.

Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady will probably always cancel each other out, even if the Rockets do win a few more games.

Iverson, like McGrady, is taking a cut in his stats now, so he's out. If the Nuggets do improve, maybe Carmelo Anthony will receive some attention, but I don't see them improving enough for this to happen--top 5 at most.

Excellent reasoning, if LeBron does have the improved jumper and is consistent with it (FIBA tourney was only 1/10th of the season), he will be hard to bypass. I Disagree on Duncan, due to him being the best player on what is consistently one of the best teams.

I Disagree on Duncan, due to him being the best player on what is consistently one of the best teams.

You're correct that Duncan has been the best player on what is consistently one of the best teams. However, look at where that has landed him in the MVP the last 3 seasons.

This past season, the Spurs won 58 games (3rd best in the league), and Duncan averaged 20 PPG and 10.6 RPG. Duncan finished 4th in MVP voting and received no 1st place votes. Kobe Bryant barely made the playoffs, and he receieved 2 1st place votes and came in 3rd.

In 2006, the Spurs won 63 games (2nd best in the league), and Duncan averaged 18.6 PPG and 11 RPG (although he had the foot issues). He finished a distant 8th in the MVP voting.

In 2005, the Spurs won 59 games (tied for 2nd best in the league), and Duncan averaged 20.3 PPG and 11.1 RPG (he missed a few games, though). He finished in 4th and received 1 1st place vote.

Back when he won MVP in 2002 and 2003, he averaged 25.5 PPG and 12.7 RPG and 23.3 PPG and 12.9 RPG. He also averaged 40.6 and 39.3 MPG those 2 seasons. When he came in a distant 2nd in 2004, he averaged 36.6 MPG, 22.3 PPG and 12.4 RPG.

The last 3 seasons, however, Duncan has averaged 33.4, 34.8 and 34.1 MPG and his numbers have dropped consequently, as well as, perhaps, due to age and more help from teammates.

Duncan is 31 years old now, and while he'll surely still be the best player on one of the best teams--arguably even the best player in the league on the best team in the league--I don't see him improving significantly statistically, nor do I see him being higher than I projected in the MVP race.

That's my objective opinion in evaluating the MVP voters habits. It's not my personal opinion on where Duncan deserves to rank in the MVP race.