The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas. 01302016 12Z Euro 240 sfcmslpna.png 01302016 12Z Euro 240 500hcf...

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks! Basically we are seeing a lot of run to run volatility in the longer range guidance. Some of that volatility may be related to the various Hemispheric phenomena developing such as Polar Stratospheric Warming as well as other indices related to what actua...

BigThicket wrote:If the cold air flows into Texas it will move east with the expansion of the easterly migrating trough so you will get your fair share and if it were to go more east you definitely will.

Looks like all the northern Gulf coast would! Even those of us in south Louisiana.

Beginning to see some strong signals via the ensembles of rather significant Blocking signature particularly over Greenland where heights are very impressive. Notice the developing deep trough settling well S into Mexico. We may be seeing signs via the guidance that those Teleconnection Indices may...

It's way too soon to worry about temperatures much less accurately predicting the shortwave features beyond 3 to be 5 days out. That said the ensembles are advertising some mighty big Hemispheric changes are in the offing. The teleconnection indices during this progressive El Nino Winter Pattern ar...

LOL, 18z GFS keeps parts of SE Texas below freezing from 288 to 384 with single digits showing up in that range. :shock: :lol: We don't need extreme cold to have wintry fun. If it's too cold, it's as though it saps all the moisture. I would take 30 to 35. Also, does anyone know if the air mass is g...