Comparing GCSE entry and success rates

In 2015-16 the funding regulation came into force which demanded that all 16-18 year olds on study programmes who had previously attained a grade D in GCSE maths or English re-sit these qualifications. Ofsted’s detailed analysis of summer 2016 GCSE results are summarised in fig. 1 below. (Note:data include both 16-18 year olds and adults, and are drawn from across all sectors, including FE colleges, schools and sixth form colleges)

There was an increase of about one-third from 2015 in entries for both GCSE English and maths, presumably on account of changes in 16-18 funding regulations.

The A*-C success rate fell from 35% to 27% for English, and from 36% to 30% for maths. (Note: Although data are not yet published, the percentage falls for 16-18 year olds in isolation are likely to be significantly higher than this.)

The overall number of post 16 students achieving a GCSE A*-C for English has remained pretty much static, while for GCSE maths there has been a modest increase of 4,400 in the number of students achieving, representing a 9.5% increase compared to 2015).

It appears, therefore, that the increase in entries in 2016 has largely been negated by lower success rates.

Compared to English, a more modest 58% increase in 16-18 GCSE maths entries between 2012/13 and 2014/15 – with the main increase (48%) happening in 2014/15.

A year-on-year drop in success rates for GCSE rates – from 36% in 2012/13 to 26% in 2014/15. A similar trend is evident in schools and sixth-form colleges.

The drop in success rates largely negated the increased entries from FE colleges, with only about 400 extra maths A*-C achievements in 2014/15 compared to 2012/13.

Grade attainment & grade movement

Fig. 8 provides a breakdown of grades achieved for all 16-18 year olds resits in 2014-15. This reveals that about 5% of English entrants achieved a grade B or higher, with a corresponding figure of only 1.4% for maths (presumably because most maths resits are entered for the foundation tier – allowing a maximum grade of C).

Fig. 9 shows the proportion of 16-18 students who achieved a GCSE A*-C according to their prior attainment. This suggests that few learners with a prior attainment of grade E are likely to move up to a grade C or above in a single year – only 10% for maths and 22% for English. So even over a two year programme it seems unlikely that many students entering college with a grade E in maths will achieve a C by the end of their course.