Saturday, November 12, 2011

Well, entire 2 years just passed since I started to publish my charts on stockcharts, and I am truly surprised I found time and energy to keep doing it fairly regularly. The cyclical bull was then only few months old and there were plenty of bears rampaging on the public list, so I felt compelled to dust off my crystal ball and share whatever I could have glimpsed looking at it. I can say, truly nostalgically, that it was a very easy time for the propheting. The bull was very young, bearishness was still rampant, and those in power around the world were committed to providing stimuli to the economy. Moving fast forward to today, there has been a dramatic change in all those factors. My prediction of the bull run till the Summer of 2011 was fulfilled. The powers of the word are showing such tremendous stupidity and ignorance now, that it is just my stubbornly contrarian nature that makes me looking for possible bullish resolutions.
Going back to predicting the future business, the good news though is, that we should get a pretty good clue very soon, maybe even next week.
The markets made a nice but predictable rebound to the 200 days MA and if they can't decisively break, the bear will be confirmed. If the rally continues, another leg of the bull is on the way and should last for several more months, and likely the retest of old tops at just above 1500 for the SPX is eventually in cards.

The resolution of this setup will dictate how the other markets will fare, whether the dollar, gold or crude.
Having said that, lets look at the setups in those markets.US Dollar has made an honest attempt at the launch two weeks ago, but the second-stage engines did not fire and it failed to archive the escape velocity last week, printing in the end indecision to bearish weekly candle.

Interestingly, Australian Dollar may be drawing an inverse head and shoulders bottom.

The fate of the XAD is also closely linked with gold and the PM miners. Interestingly, the miners seem to be leading gold on this rebound/rally (that's positive).
The GDX gold miners ETF and it's younger sibling GDXJ are clearly tracing ascending wedge patterns, that could turn out to be either very bearish or very bullish (ending versus leading diagonal respectively).

Crude oil has been behaving most bullishly of the pack, but pulled just to the resistance at 100 bucks and obviously still may turn on a dime if other markets falter.

And finally, bonds may have seen a historic once-in-a-lifetime top. But that also needs a confirmation.

On the side, it will be interesting to look at all of this 2 years from now.