Saturday, August 04, 2007

"This Much Daily Hysteria"

Ervin Santana turned into a AAAA pitcher at exactly the wrong time. He's now down in AAA working out his problems, but his inconsistency with Salt Lake isn't making him look like he'll be with the team barring a September callup.

Bartolo Colon gave his last full measure. He's almost certainly done for the year and possibly his career, making the Angels' rotation is suspect in two places.

It occurred to me that maybe Scioscia is platooning him of late because he doesn't need to face lefties; after all, Kotch still came back from a concussion only a month or so ago. That's not a particularly compelling argument, though, despite the fact that Kotch has been hitting .230/.269/.330 in 100 AB since then. Here's a brief summary of how he's done against pitchers of both hands and all the hits he's had since returning from the DL:

It took Kotchman just under a week to get his first hit after coming back, a homer off Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie. But Scioscia didn't give him that many opportunities to see lefties early on, his first coming against Jamie Walker on June 29. He didn't get his first hit against a lefty until July 13 on a hit against Texas reliever Ron Mahay, a walkoff single that plated Gary Matthews from third.

Kotchman's line against righties during this time mostly reflects his recovery from the concussion, so it's not especially interesting. But he's getting hits off of guys who have done at least decent jobs against lefties, in particular, Joe Kennedy, who's devolved into a LOOGY type; left-handed batters are hitting a scant .203 against him this year, as is Ron Mahay (.250 BAA). The point is that while Scioscia may have had a reason to leave Kotchman out against tough lefties in the past, that time looks like it's over with.

The usual problems with the bullpen. Scot Shields implosion yesterday merely highlighted the gradual erosion of the Angels' bullpen. Shields is a career 0-7 with a 5.59 ERA at Oakland, but here's the worse news: 0-3 and 15.12 ERA at Fenway.

Losing a crucial road series to the team's closest rival. The Angels had an opportunity to put the Mariners away with this last road series, and blew it.

It only gets harder from here. Losing that series looks more critical with each game they lose to the likes of the sub-.500 Athletics, because the Angels' strength of schedule against the rest of the way is tougher (.509) than the Mariners' (.502). A lot of that is due to the fact that the Angels have two sets to go before they're done with the Red Sox, including one on the road later this month. The Sox have just owned the Angels lately, and with the Halos' pitching badly depleted (great time to lose your command, Santana), well, the results are likely to be ugly.

This team looks lost. The series against the depleted Tigers notwithstanding, they haven't looked good against much of anybody in a while. At the rate they're going, all the bluster trying to dispel references to 1995 won't change the fact that they're playing like a club that's going to be watching October baseball on TV.

Update: Adjusted Kotchman's at-bat list to make it chronological by game to emphasize when he appeared rather than who he appeared against.

One bad night from Shields and now "This team looks lost." Damn, you're fragile.

I'll remind you that Vlad just hit four HRs in two days, and we've finally replaced crap on a stick with at least one back-of-the-rotation pitcher that can win games, and a fifth no worse than the dark magic that preceded him.

I bet if we just lost the game outright you wouldn't be ascending into these Bjork-like hysterics. Look, it was a disappointing loss, but only because of the surprise of Vlad's second longball. I'm a diabetic too. I know how these moods go. Can I suggest some lean red meat and spinach?

I didn't take the Tigers series very seriously. It didn't deserve to be, considering how beat up they were by the time the Angels got to them. The Angels haven't played any better than a .500 team in over a month now. That just has to stop.

Totally true. Meanwhile, defying your predictable pessimism, Santana was sent down, and Saunders has been great, meaning we are now better as a result.

Bartolo Colon gave his last full measure.

And now we're better because he's gone.

making the platoon with Robb Quinlan (.259/.304/.400) of dubious value.

Only if A) you believe Casey's 50 PAs this year against lefties is more indicative than Robb's 400+ for his career, B) are content to have a 1Bman on a powerless team with a .087 ISO while a .141 ISO sits, and C) think bench players should rot.

Rob, you don't take *any* positive Angels news seriously. Which makes it hard to take your analysis seriously, except as entertainment. Let's hear more about how Vladdy's "just old," and Napoli can't hit major league pitching, and Lackey's hurt, and Jered's just like Jeff, and Shields is terrible, and Saunders has an awful FB/GB ratio in AAA, and god knows what else.

I'll repeat it again -- any time you want to lay down cold hard cash, Angels vs. Mariners, 2007, I'll happily back up a truck to my bank account.

as for me, the club's in first and still the best of the division and one of the top 4 in the league - i'm pretty sure i'm be at the Big A in mid October, along with Ervin, Vlad's 30+-hr season, and Shields with a sub 3.00 ERA.

Let's see: true about Saunders, the jury's out on Moseley, unless sample size arguments only apply to arguments you make. Vlad's slumps keep getting longer as he ages -- is this some kind of a surprise? As to Quinlan, of course you can't let him rot on the bench. But were there ever any indications that Kotchman couldn't hit lefties in the minors? I don't think so, or if there were, I don't recall reading them... are you arguing that his recent hot streak against lefties (actually better than his numbers against righties for reasons discussed above) is an illusion? If so, why (aside from the sample size issue)?

the jury's out on Moseley, unless sample size arguments only apply to arguments you make.

Nice try. Really. But I've never said anything particularly positive about Moseley. It's that just about *any* lump of flesh will be better than what Colon pitched like after April.

Vlad's slumps keep getting longer as he ages -- is this some kind of a surprise?

I'll be happy to see your supporting data. Meanwhile, Vladdy's OPS+ -- just after this terrible "slump" you refer to -- is 158, which would be the third-best of his career and best since 2002. Old old old!

But were there ever any indications that Kotchman couldn't hit lefties in the minors? I don't think so, or if there were, I don't recall reading them... are you arguing that his recent hot streak against lefties (actually better than his numbers against righties for reasons discussed above) is an illusion? If so, why (aside from the sample size issue)?

Your game of move-the-goalposts and same-to-you-but-more-of-it really is charming. However.

Quinlan mashes lefties for his career much better than we have any expectation that Kotchman will at this stage of his career. If I was Scioscia, I'd let Casey hit against everyone when he's smokin' hot, then platoon with Q when he cools off, and find spots for Q against lefties elsewhere.

As for Shields' "suspect" reliability, I'm pretty confident 90% of baseball would love to exchange the "reliability" of their set-up man for Shields'. A 3.00 ERA -- which, of course, he has after the worst game of his season -- is not bad at all.

Christ, Matt, they're not even beating the sub-.500 teams.

Baseball is a game of failure. We have the second-best record in baseball, four good starters, and Napoli & Kendrick coming back.

Shields has generally done his job, but his reliability is suspect -- or did you miss his 3.00 ERA?

I'm not going to call you names, Rob, but that's a tad opportunistic, given Shields had an ERA of 2.24 coming into yesterday's game. No thinking man is going to assess Shields' reliability on his ERA, so give your (brighter than average) loyal audience here the benefit of honest argumentation, lest this become some teen scream pissing coliseum a la the MLB forums. Any metric that can swing 33% in the course of a single appearance ain't terribly descriptive.

Scot Shields ranks first in the AL in holds, and he's on pace for the most in any season for him thusfar. His WHIP and BAA are below career norms, and in 50 appearances this season, he's not given up ERs in 42 of them.

While reading us the obituaries, at least throw in the headlines as well. Gracias.

1) You say that the Quinlan platoon is of "dubious value" because of this year's sample size of their performance against lefties.

2) I point out that this can only be "dubious" if you value Casey's 50 PAs this year over Robb's 400+ over his career -- which have produced a .310/.352/.510 line -- and then point out that even within your favorable-to-Casey sample size, Quinlan has much more isolated power, a commodity this team needs in spades.

4) I decline your efforts to move the goalposts -- i.e., changing the parameters of what we were talking about -- and instead reinforce my point, which is "Quinlan mashes lefties for his career much better than we have any expectation that Kotchman will at this stage of his career."

5) You accuse me, falsely, and as your only evidence of my purported "double-think," of "Implying that Kotchman can't hit lefties."

Seriously, Rob, read that chronology slowly, then ask yourself why the very same people who enjoy your website are genuinely puzzled by your behavior.

Whatever, Matt. Hoo-ray, you win. Me, I'd rather see what a young player with more upside who's shown signs of figuring out how to hit lefties get more opportunities to do so. As for Quinlan, he's 30 and hitting .252, with an sOPS+ of 77 against lefties. Meantime, Kotchman has a 117 sOPS+ against lefties this year. Time's running out on the platoon argument, especially with the defensive bonus you get with Casey at first.

Quinlan's had exactly 433 plate appearances against lefties in his career. He's had ample opportunity in the majors to show that he can beat lefties like a gong. Unless you think that he fell off the cliff at age 30, based on 93 PAs.

He may or may not have fallen off a cliff; he's been up and down over a full season, as you'd expect a bench player with a relatively large role to be. That's immaterial to my larger point that Kotchman's the better deal here, or likely to be if given the chance. Q's better ISO isn't much help if, as seems to be the case this year, he's not hitting for enough average to make a difference. Finally, I brought up Kotchman's 117 PA because it goes directly to your assertion that he can or can't hit left-handed pitching; the real answer is that we just don't know. While I realize that trumps some of my argument, too, at the same time Kotchman's upside is a powerful draw.

Honestly, what I suspect happens is that the Angels take some middle ground, giving Kotch more chances against lefties, but continuing to leave Quinlan in for most circumstances. They very well might let him go at the end of the season depending on what Kotchman shows himself capable of doing, unless they're still thinking about using McPherson at third base. The Angels have better, younger options in the outfield, and they're probably thinking about Aybar as the team's backup to Izturis in the infield though his bat leaves a lot to be desired, no matter the handedness of the pitcher.