Whether King intended it or not, he implied that caucuses — which often require hours of participation and mean lower turnout — are representative of what would happen if a larger electorate had its say. Well, a funny thing happened in Washington on Tuesday: The state held a mail-in, beauty-contest primary — so voting was easy, but no delegates were at stake. (The Associated Press has declared Hillary Clinton the winner.) The results are still being finalized, but Clinton leads by about 6 percentage points with more than 700,000 votes counted. Sanders won the Washington caucuses, which had 230,000 participants, by 46 percentage points.

So, turnout was much higher in the Washington primary than in the caucuses, and Clinton did much better. Something similar happened in Nebraska, where Clinton lost the early March caucuses by 14 percentage points and won the early May primary, in which no delegates were awarded, by 7 points.

Nebraska and Washington are part of a pattern. As Sanders fans claim that the Democratic primary system is rigged against their candidate and that Sanders wins when turnout is higher, they fail to point out that Sanders has benefited tremendously from low-turnout caucuses. Indeed, if all the caucuses were primaries, Clinton would be winning the Democratic nomination by an even wider margin than she is now.

Let’s start out with the real-world numbers. Here are the delegate and vote totals by contest, including caucuses and primaries, so far:

POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

STATE

CAUCUS

CLOSED

WINNER

CLINTON

SANDERS

CLINTON

SANDERS

Iowa

✓

Clinton

+0

85

85

23

21

N.H.

Sanders

+22

95

152

9

15

Nevada

✓

✓

Clinton

+5

44

40

20

15

South Carolina

Clinton

+47

272

96

39

14

Alabama

Clinton

+59

309

76

44

9

Am. Samoa

✓

Clinton

+43

<1

<1

4

2

Arkansas

Clinton

+36

146

66

22

10

Georgia

Clinton

+43

546

216

73

29

Massachusetts

Clinton

+1

607

590

46

45

Oklahoma

Sanders

+10

139

174

17

21

Tennessee

Clinton

+34

246

121

44

23

Texas

Clinton

+32

936

477

147

75

Vermont

Sanders

+72

18

116

0

16

Virginia

Clinton

+29

505

276

62

33

Colorado

✓

✓

Sanders

+19

50

73

25

41

Minnesota

✓

Sanders

+23

78

126

31

46

Louisiana

✓

Clinton

+48

222

72

37

14

Nebraska

✓

✓

Sanders

+14

14

19

10

15

Kansas

✓

✓

Sanders

+35

13

26

10

23

Maine

✓

✓

Sanders

+29

16

30

8

17

Michigan

Sanders

+1

582

599

63

67

Mississippi

Clinton

+66

187

38

31

5

N. Marianas

✓

✓

Clinton

+20

<1

<1

4

2

Florida

✓

Clinton

+31

1,101

569

141

73

Illinois

Clinton

+2

1,040

999

79

77

Missouri

Clinton

+0

312

311

36

35

North Carolina

Clinton

+14

623

467

60

47

Ohio

Clinton

+13

697

535

81

62

Dems abroad

Sanders

+38

11

24

4

9

Arizona

✓

Clinton

+15

262

193

42

33

Utah

✓

Sanders

+59

15

60

6

27

Idaho

✓

Sanders

+57

5

19

5

18

Hawaii

✓

Sanders

+40

10

24

8

17

Washington

✓

Sanders

+46

62

167

27

74

Alaska

✓

✓

Sanders

+59

2

8

3

13

Wisconsin

Sanders

+14

434

570

38

48

Wyoming

✓

✓

Sanders

+11

3

4

7

7

New York

✓

Clinton

+16

1,134

820

139

108

Pennsylvania

✓

Clinton

+12

922

722

106

83

Rhode Island

Sanders

+12

53

67

11

13

Connecticut

✓

Clinton

+5

170

152

28

27

Delaware

✓

Clinton

+21

56

37

12

9

Maryland

✓

Clinton

+29

573

310

61

34

Indiana

Sanders

+5

303

335

39

44

Guam

✓

✓

Clinton

+19

1

1

4

3

West Virginia

Sanders

+16

86

123

11

18

Kentucky

✓

Clinton

+0

213

211

28

27

Oregon

✓

Sanders

+13

264

347

26

35

Total

Clinton

+12

13,463

10,544

1,771

1,499

Democratic votes and delegates based on actual results

Popular vote in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington and Wyoming is estimated based on overall turnout.

Now, it is fair to point out that the caucuses have taken place in states that are demographically different than the primary states. Caucus states in 2016 are overwhelmingly white and overwhelmingly rural compared with primary states. Still, these differences don’t come close to explaining the differences in results between the caucuses and primaries so far. We can look to Nebraska and Washington as two examples of the disparity. Of course, one could argue that because no delegates were up for grabs in those states’ primaries, the campaigns didn’t really compete for residents’ votes and therefore those contests aren’t representative of what a truly competitive primary would look like there. Fortunately, because the vote in the Democratic primary has largely broken down along demographic lines, we can use statistical models to approximate what would happen if states that held caucuses had held primaries instead.

At varioustimes, we’ve tried using demographics to model the vote in the Democratic nomination contest so far. The model considers each 2016 contest and controls for (i) the black and Hispanic share of the Democratic vote in that state in the 2008 general election, (ii) whether that primary or caucus is “open” to independent voters unaffiliated with a political party, and (iii) the margin in national primary polls at the time the contest is held. This model estimates that holding caucuses instead of primaries is a massive advantage for Sanders. In fact, Clinton would do about 20 to 25 percentage points better relative to Sanders if a state changed from a caucus to a primary, the model estimates.

Here’s how we project each caucus would have gone if a primary had been held instead:6

POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

STATE

CLOSED

WINNER

CLINTON

SANDERS

CLINTON

SANDERS

Iowa

Clinton

+24

301

182

27

17

Nevada

✓

Clinton

+29

185

101

23

12

Am. Samoa

Clinton

+60

4

1

5

1

Colorado

✓

Clinton

+6

331

295

35

31

Minnesota

Clinton

+1

402

394

39

38

Nebraska

✓

Clinton

+7

79

70

13

12

Kansas

✓

Sanders

+12

91

116

15

18

Maine

✓

Sanders

+5

92

102

12

13

N. Marianas

✓

Clinton

+39

3

1

4

2

Utah

Sanders

+39

52

120

10

23

Idaho

Sanders

+37

33

72

7

16

Hawaii

Sanders

+17

63

88

10

15

Washington

Clinton

+6

471

418

53

48

Alaska

✓

Sanders

+40

17

40

5

11

Wyoming

✓

Clinton

+13

19

15

8

6

Guam

✓

Clinton

+42

10

4

5

2

Current primary states

Clinton

+14

13,064

9,861

1,576

1,158

Total

Clinton

+12

15,216

11,880

1,847

1,423

Projected Democratic results if caucus states had held primaries

Sanders fans have claimed that because caucuses have lower turnout the current national caucus and primary vote underrates how well Sanders is doing. In fact, the opposite is true. When we switch all caucuses over to primaries, Sanders actually does worse. Clinton’s lead in the popular vote would grow from 2.9 to 3.3 million votes. Moreover, her edge in elected delegates would expand significantly.7 Instead of her current lead of 272 elected delegates, Clinton would be ahead by 424.8 Some states that were won by Sanders in caucuses, including Colorado and Minnesota, would be won by Clinton in primaries, according to our calculations.

In fact, counting the 537 superdelegates The Associated Press currently gives Clinton, she would likely have 2,384 total delegates if every state had held a primary. That’s one more than necessary to clinch the nomination.

But what would happen if every state held a primary that was open to independent voters? Independent voters, after all, have been among Sanders’s strongest groups, and Sanders supporters have consistently cited closed contests as evidence the game is rigged. We can rerun the same regression as above but estimate what would happen if all the primaries are open to unaffiliated voters.

POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

STATE

WINNER

CLINTON

SANDERS

CLINTON

SANDERS

Iowa

Clinton

+24

301

182

27

17

Nevada

Clinton

+18

188

130

21

14

Am. Samoa

Clinton

+60

4

1

5

1

Colorado

Sanders

+6

331

373

31

35

Minnesota

Clinton

+1

402

394

39

38

Louisiana

Clinton

+39

240

100

36

15

Nebraska

Sanders

+5

79

88

12

13

Kansas

Sanders

+23

90

144

13

20

Maine

Sanders

+16

91

127

10

15

N. Marianas

Clinton

+30

3

2

4

2

Florida

Clinton

+20

1,159

760

129

85

Arizona

Clinton

+4

267

248

39

36

Utah

Sanders

+39

52

120

10

23

Idaho

Sanders

+37

33

72

7

16

Hawaii

Sanders

+17

63

88

10

15

Washington

Clinton

+6

471

418

53

48

Alaska

Sanders

+50

16

48

4

12

Wyoming

Clinton

+2

19

19

7

7

New York

Clinton

+4

1,146

1,049

129

118

Pennsylvania

Clinton

+0

915

907

95

94

Connecticut

Sanders

+6

176

200

26

29

Delaware

Clinton

+9

58

49

11

10

Maryland

Clinton

+18

581

399

56

39

Guam

Clinton

+31

11

6

5

2

Kentucky

Sanders

+10

205

256

24

31

Oregon

Sanders

+25

251

418

23

38

Current open primary states

Clinton

+12

8,146

6,429

956

715

Total

Clinton

+8

15,298

13,024

1,782

1,488

Projected results if every state had held an open primary

An “open” primary allows the participation of voters not registered with either major political party.

Clinton’s margin in the national popular vote shrinks to about 8 percentage points (from 12). That’s because opening a primary to independent voters shrinks Clinton’s margin in a state by about 10 percentage points on average, according to the model. Sanders would also project to win Connecticut and Kentucky, which he lost in the real world when they held closed primaries.

Still, this wouldn’t make all that much difference. Just 11 states9 held closed primaries, so the national vote is mostly reflective of a process open to unaffiliated voters. Indeed, Clinton has won 14 primaries10 open to independent voters, while Sanders has won nine.

In fact, if all states held primaries open to independents — instead of closed primaries, or caucuses of any kind — Clinton might have a larger lead in elected delegates than she does now. The model indicates that Clinton would have a lead of 294 elected delegates, compared with the 272 she holds now. That’s not a huge difference, but it means that Clinton has been hurt at least as much by caucuses as Sanders has been hurt by closed primaries.

What would happen if the primary system conformed to each candidate’s best-case scenario? (All closed primaries for Clinton and all caucuses open to independent voters for Sanders.) If every state held a closed primary, Clinton would beat Sanders by 19 percentage points and have a 654 elected delegate advantage, we estimate. If, however, each state held an open caucus, Sanders would beat Clinton by 22 percentage points nationwide and have a 496 elected delegate lead. Of course, neither of those scenarios would happen.

Realistically, if you throw everything together, the math suggests that Sanders doesn’t have much to complain about. If the Democratic nomination were open to as many Democrats as possible — through closed primaries — Clinton would be dominating Sanders. And if the nomination were open to as many voters as possible — through open primaries — she’d still be winning.

Footnotes

Some states, such as Nevada, do not release official turnout totals. In states without official totals, approximations were released. We used these approximations as compiled by Michael McDonald at the United States Elections Project.

We exclude territories from this estimate because they don’t vote in general elections.

The Washington count is as of Thursday morning, Eastern time.

This includes the Nebraska primary for which no delegates were awarded.

We exclude the Democrats Abroad primary because there is no equivalent contest in the general election.

In Washington and Nebraska, which actually held a primary in addition to a caucus, we used the primary results instead of the model to estimate Clinton’s and Sanders’s vote shares, although we used the model to estimate what turnout would have been.

Why does Clinton’s delegate lead expand so significantly while her margin in the popular vote does not? If a state changes from a caucus to a primary, Clinton does better and gains more delegates in these states. But caucuses have such small voter participation that they don’t really contribute much to the national vote total. According to our calculations, turnout typically goes up about three to four times when you move from a caucus to a primary. (This is based on a simple regression in which the dependent variable is turnout as ratio of Obama votes in the 2012 general election. The regression controls for whether independent voters can vote in the primary.) So, Clinton does better in the shift from caucuses to primaries, but we’re still adding a bunch of votes from more Sanders friendly states such as Colorado and Minnesota to the overall popular vote count. As a result, the national primary vote wouldn’t change — Clinton would win by 12 percentage points according to our calculation.

In our projections of how caucus states would vote if they held a primary instead, delegates were allocated strictly proportionally.

Including Nebraska.

Including Washington.

Harry Enten is a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight. @forecasterenten

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538