United States faces uphill World Cup climb

By Bill Pinella
| 2:37 p.m.Dec. 6, 2013

United States head coach Juergen Klinsmann from Germany answers journalists' question after the draw ceremony for the 2014 soccer World Cup in Costa do Sauipe near Salvador, Brazil, Friday, Dec. 6, 2013. (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)
The Associated Press

United States head coach Juergen Klinsmann from Germany answers journalists' question after the draw ceremony for the 2014 soccer World Cup in Costa do Sauipe near Salvador, Brazil, Friday, Dec. 6, 2013. (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)

It’s difficult not to pay attention when you hear the label “Group of Death,” or “El Grupo De La Muerte.”

The concept was initiated a little over four decades ago by Mexican journalists. It has traveled throughout soccer circles in the ensuing years, from youth tournaments all the way to Friday’s draw for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. A lottery-like drawing of pingpong balls out of glass bowls, the internationally televised event morphed into a collection of talking heads analyzing eight pools of four teams each and attempting to identify one as the “Group of Death.”

Bad news for the United States: The Americans might have landed in it, winding up in a group with Germany (ranked second in the world by FIFA), Portugal (fifth) and Ghana (24th). The U.S. is ranked 14th.

“I’d say there are really three difficult groups,” said Brian Quinn, the former San Diego Sockers star who’s now an assistant coach for the USD men’s team. “Group B with Spain and the Netherlands in it; Group D with Uruguay, England and Italy; and Group G with Germany, Portugal, Ghana and the U.S.”

So that leaves the Americans and their coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, roughly six months to prepare for a difficult opening match, June 16 against Ghana.

“The first thing I would do if I were Klinsmann would be to call (Bob) Bradley (former U.S. coach). He played against Ghana a couple of times, and he has lots of tactical and personnel knowledge about his squad and Ghana,” Quinn said. “This is a very, very difficult game for the U.S. But the key is to keep it close and get out of that initial game with three points (for winning).”

Projections via a formula devised by the Soccer Power Index give the U.S. about a 39 percent chance of being one of the two teams to advance out of the group. Germany is listed at 92 percent, Portugal at 40 percent and Ghana at 29 percent.

“The U.S. is an (extreme) underdog in this group,” said ESPN soccer analyst Alexi Lalas, a former U.S. World Cup team member.

As if the level of competition weren’t enough, the U.S. squad faces a potentially enormous travel disadvantage in the tournament. For their three group games, they will travel nearly 9,000 miles around Brazil.

Quinn sees it as a non-factor, though.

“That’s a lot of miles, but remember they aren’t playing the next day. After they play Ghana, they will have five days off before they face Portugal (June 22) and then another three days before they play Germany (June 26). Remember, European players travel like that all the time.”

Mexico, which had to struggle simply to qualify for the World Cup, is in a difficult but not overwhelming group. It is paired with tournament favorite Brazil along with Cameroon and Croatia.

That same SPI index gives Mexico a 45 percent chance of advancing out of Group A, although one of the ESPN commentators said the team would “have to play out of their skins just to get out of their group.”

The first order of business for the Mexicans would appear to be the building of a squad — getting their players who are playing in Europe to commit to the team.

“They are going up against Brazil in their group,” Quinn said, “but they can do well against the other two teams. For sure, they need to play better next June than they are playing now. It would help the psyche of that squad so much to have those players now in Europe on board.

“No one, absolutely no one, wants to miss a World Cup. The Mexican coach just needs to get over there soon and invite the players like Chicharito (Javier Hernandez). Invite them to come and play, let them know how much they mean to the team and the country now.”