National Emission Projections

Greenhouse gas emission projections provide a forecast of future emissions and are a valuable analytical tool to inform how Ireland will comply with 2020 targets under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (Decision 406/2009/EC). The EPA develops national emission projections on an annual basis, in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. This collaboration ensures consistency with economic forecasts and with projected activity in sectors including energy, agriculture, and industry.

Overview

The National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA with responsibility for developing national emission projections for greenhouse gases for all key sectors of the economy. Emission projections serve to inform national policy initiatives and allow Ireland to comply with EU reporting obligations on projections (e.g. Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 525/2013). The EPA publishes greenhouse gas emission projections on an annual basis and submits emission projections to the Commission as required under Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 525/2013.

Two scenarios are produced showing a different outlook for emission levels depending on the level of policy implementation:

With Measures scenario assumes that no additional policies and measures, beyond those already in place by the end of 2014, are implemented.

The With Additional Measures includes existing measures andplanned policies and measures, for example renewable fuels and energy efficiency targets, as set out in the National Revewable Energy Action Plan and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan will be fully implemented. Emission reductions under the With Additional Measures scenario assume achievement of such policies and measures in the period 2014 to 2020.

Under the EU Commission’s Climate and Energy Package, Ireland is required to deliver a 20% reduction in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005 levels). In addition, Ireland also has binding annual emission limits for the period 2013-2020 to ensure a gradual move towards the 2020 target. The non-ETS sectors cover those that are outside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and includes the agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, waste and non-energy intensive industry.

As part of the 2016 projections reporting the EPA has produced an update bulletin which provides an updated assessment of Ireland's progress towards achieving its emision reduction targets set under the EU Effort Sharing Decision for the years 2013-2020. The 2016 update assumes an unchanged energy system outlook compared to the EPA's 2015 projections publication. It does however include an analysis of the impact of the Food Wise 2025 Strategy for the agriculture sector.