Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and 01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone’s center. Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20 kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track. After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and increasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain its intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids. The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in agreement with global model fields.

The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle, and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread.

Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

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What our partners are saying about us...

Willem Rampangilei

Chief, BNPB

As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning.

Daniel B. Whitley

Acting Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service (2017)

"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."

Harlan V. Hale

Regional Advisor, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”

Eric Yarrell

Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, JTF-Bravo (2017)

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Susan Cruz

Director, Office of Civil Defense (2015)

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Augusto Moreno O'Phelan

Director General for Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Defense, Peru (2016)

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Claudia Mateo

President, Republica Domincana Comisión Nacional de Energía

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William I. Clark

Humanitarian Assistance Division Chief, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."

Don Price

Disaster Management Advisor, U.S. Forest Service, Myanmar (2017)

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Ana Ake

Ministry of Information and Communications, Kingdom of Tonga (2017)

"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"

Christopher Vaughan

FEMA National Headquarters Geospatial Information Officer (2015)

"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."

USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer

USDA (2016)

"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."

Jeremy K. Delancy

Senior Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Social Services & Community Development, Commonwealth of The Bahamas (2016)

"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Kenta Hamasaki

The Consulate General of Japan, Honolulu, HI (2016)

"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."

Jonathan Colwell

Goespatial Coordinator, DHS-FEMA Region 9 (2016)

"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."

"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."

Jesse Rozelle

Program Manager, Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program, FEMA (2017)

"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Marcus Elten

United Nations OCHA (2016)

"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations for Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB