Euro has just off the western tip of Cuba Tuessday then briefly over eastern Cuba, over crooked Island in the Bahamas on Wednesday, then out to sea missing Bermuda to the north.

6z GFS Right over Jamaica from the south Monday, then into eastern Cuba, over Nassau on Wednesday, then out to sea, missing Bermuda to the north.

With this Florida nor the US wouldn't see any direct impact from Matthew other than strong rip currents and very edge fringes of the bands along the coastline.

The ensembles are not as widespread as before, but it doesn't make trivial the potential risk to Florida yet, although it has been trending away.

Now that Matthew is a cat 2, and possibly on its way to major, Jamaica should be getting early preps done for possible impact on Monday, and definitely when watches or warnings are placed up. Cuba and Bahamas should be on high alert to move for preparations, and Florida should just watch to see exactly where the storm turns north and how fast it is moving. Odds favor it staying east of Florida, but they are still not strong odds. However since Matthew is a well developed hurricane, the models tend to be more accurate if there is decent forward motion. A lot will depend on when and how the forecast turn to the north happens.

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