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Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Once again, NBC is kicking Jay Leno off of The Tonight Show when he's dominating the ratings. It looks as though they haven't learned from their mistake five years ago when kicking him out for Conan completely blew up in their face. This guy has been dominating the ratings for years, yet NBC is foolishly kicking him out AGAIN because they are scared to death that a young talent is going to leave. I know that some people don't like Leno, but from a business standpoint, this is a horrible decision. Leno has proven for two decades that he gets the best audience.

Leno says that if he was given the choice, he wouldn’t leave the show.

“It’s not my decision, and I think I probably would have stayed if we didn’t have an extremely qualified, young guy ready to jump in.

Nielsen estimates that Leno, who will wrap his second stint as host of “The Tonight Show” in mid-winter, averaged 1.08 million adults 18-49 for the April 1-June 30 second quarter — up 8% from last year. “Jimmy Kimmel Live” (885,000 viewers in the demo) ranked second and was up 25% from its average in a later timeslot last year, while “Late Show with David Letterman” slid 13% to 777,000.

I like Leno, but biases aside, why would you kick off someone who is dominating the ratings a mere five years after doing the EXACT SAME THING completely blew up in your faces? Leno is 63 and could easily do this for another decade if he wanted. You don't fire the best when they are still at the top. When you have a guy who has dominated the ratings for as long as Leno has, you keep him and ride it out for as long as you can. It boggles my mind that they have kicked Leno to the curb twice just because they were worried about Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Fallon. Who cares if Jimmy Fallon gets away? He's not worth getting rid of a guy who has dominated the ratings for two decades. Leno dusts Letterman in ratings, yet do you ever see CBS kicking Letterman out the door?

This will blow up in NBC's faces just like it did five years ago. I hope that Leno goes somewhere else and sticks it to them. This is honestly one of the worst business decisions I've ever seen.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

The reason you do it is because you think in the long run you will get better ratings by making the change now. Sort of like in basketball when you trade a still very good player and replace him with a up and coming potential star. it might not pan out, but the reasoning isn't bad.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

The reason you do it is because you think in the long run you will get better ratings by making the change now. Sort of like in basketball when you trade a still very good player and replace him with a up and coming potential star. it might not pan out, but the reasoning isn't bad.

The reasoning maybe wouldn't be bad if this was 2009 and it was the first time they tried it (though I disagreed with it then too). But they did this EXACT THING five years ago and it blew up in their faces miserably. Why is it going to be better this go around? This is approaching the definition of insanity, IMHO.

Besides, what does "long run" mean anyway? Leno is 64 and seems completely healthy. He could easily do this for another decade if he wanted. Ten years seems like it's "long run" to me.

It's just Jimmy Fallon. He's a great young talent, but they would survive if he went somewhere else. He's not worth kicking out a guy who has dominated the ratings for two decades, especially when you consider the fact that doing this exact same thing blew up in their faces five years ago. The masses have spoken for two decades and they want to watch Leno. They didn't want to watch Conan's putrid version of the show, and I'm guessing that they won't watch Fallon's either.

I've never seen a network in such a hurry to get rid of something that dominated the ratings. This would be like rushing Seinfeld out the door in 1995 just so they could give Kevin James his own show.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Leno showed Conan the same respect that Conan showed him back in 2004 when NBC decided to kick Leno out five years down the road, i.e. he looked out for himself. But Conan had his opportunity and blew it with a show that people didn't want to watch.

Leno has been the top ratings dog for 20 years. Guys who are at the top shouldn't be shoved out like this.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Leno showed Conan the same respect that Conan showed him back in 2004 when NBC decided to kick Leno out five years down the road, i.e. he looked out for himself. But Conan had his opportunity and blew it with a show that people didn't want to watch.

Leno has been the top ratings dog for 20 years. Guys who are at the top shouldn't be shoved out like this.

Except Conan didn't come running back to his old job that he just handed away to someone else and take it back because he new 10 PM show sucked.

I used to watch Leno and Conan. Both. Those were the good days. When they were the "late night leaders". But after what Leno pulled I lost the respect I had with him.

NBC was canning him because of the 10 PM show flopping, he should have not ran back and took his old show back from someone he promised it to, regardless of ratings, he should have swallowed his pride and found work on another network, IMO.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Except Conan didn't come running back to his old job that he just handed away to someone else and take it back because he new 10 PM show sucked.

I used to watch Leno and Conan. Both. Those were the good days. When they were the "late night leaders". But after what Leno pulled I lost the respect I had with him.

NBC was canning him because of the 10 PM show flopping, he should have not ran back and took his old show back from someone he promised it to, regardless of ratings, he should have swallowed his pride and found work on another network, IMO.

Conan sat back and selfishly allowed NBC to axe the guy who was the king of late night. Leno earned the right to leave on his terms when he wanted, but Conan did not respect that. Conan got what he deserved when Leno took back what should have never been taken from him.

Regardless, Leno would have ultimately been irrelevant if Conan could have delivered a quality show. But the public spoke by not watching him, and NBC had to do what was best for their shareholders and business. I just thought they would have learned their lesson. Hopefully Leno takes it back again after Fallon delivers another inferior version of it. Leno is hilarious. Long live Leno.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Conan sat back and selfishly allowed NBC to axe the guy who was the king of late night. Leno earned the right to leave on his terms when he wanted, but Conan did not respect that. Conan got what he deserved when Leno took back what should have never been taken from him.

Regardless, Leno would have ultimately been irrelevant if Conan could have delivered a quality show. But the public spoke by not watching him, and NBC had to do what was best for their shareholders and business. I just thought they would have learned their lesson. Hopefully Leno takes it back again after Fallon delivers another inferior version of it. Leno is hilarious. Long live Leno.

Conan allowed it to happen? Are you kidding me? Conan wasn't in charge of NBC.

Leno shouldn't have agreed to give the show to Conan if he never truly wanted to. The fact is, is that what Leno did was a total scumbag troll move.

Conan accepted the Tonight show and from all accounts, Leno, at the time was fine with it. He wanted to give it to Conan. He seemed sincere about it and even in 2009 he was really classy about it.

If NBC was pressuring him to leave and he didn't want to leave, he should have tried to stay and if that didn't work out, swallow your pride, join another network and make NBC regret it.

Conan accepting the Tonight Show in 2004, and then having it taken away from the same person who said he wanted you to have it, gave it to you and then takes it back in less than a year is not the same thing.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Leno's 10 pm show failed to draw an audience which affected the affiliates 11 O'clock news shows. When the news shows lost viewers, that affected Conan at 11:30. With a poor performing Leno show 5 nights a week at 10 pm, there wasn't any night where Conan could draw an audience. Poor Conan, he never had a chance.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

I know you don't care about ratings, but network executives should. That's why Conan got the axe four years ago. They have a duty to the business and shareholders.

I love HIMYM, but this final season has been complete garbage.

Yea but seasons 3-6 destroyed anything BBT ever did, and yet BBT killed HIMYM every year in "ratings". Going strictly by ratings just doesn't work. It's like saying Britney Spears is a great musician because her album went 15 platinum.

There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Leno's 10 pm show failed to draw an audience which affected the affiliates 11 O'clock news shows. When the news shows lost viewers, that affected Conan at 11:30. With a poor performing Leno show 5 nights a week at 10 pm, there wasn't any night where Conan could draw an audience. Poor Conan, he never had a chance.

Lead in is only a big deal when you're trying to get a brand new show off of the ground that no one has heard of. But that wasn't quite the case when Conan took over for The Tonight Show. Everyone on the planet had heard of The Tonight Show. Everyone also knew that Conan was taking over for Jay because it had been talked about for five years. Furthermore, people have remote controls and can change the channel.

Everyone knew that Conan was on, but people simply didn't want to watch. Conan's show just wasn't as good as what he replaced and the audience responded. It never mattered to Jay Leno what was on at 10 PM. NBC has had plenty of bad shows over the years, yet his Tonight Show ratings have always been strong. Conan's show failed and that's that.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Yea but seasons 3-6 destroyed anything BBT ever did, and yet BBT killed HIMYM every year in "ratings". Going strictly by ratings just doesn't work. It's like saying Britney Spears is a great musician because her album went 15 platinum.

Well I think Leno is an extremely great comic, but that's just my own opinion. What's not my own opinion though is that plenty of other people obviously agree with me because for two decades they have chosen to watch his show. Britney Spears? Lol, come on. Leno is like the second most successful late night comic ever.

Networks care about ratings and that's why Conan's putrid Tonight Show was given the axe. I just don't get why they are doing it again when Leno's show has been gold for 20 years.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Lead in is only a big deal when you're trying to get a brand new show off of the ground that no one has heard of. But that wasn't quite the case when Conan took over for The Tonight Show. Everyone on the planet had heard of The Tonight Show. Everyone also knew that Conan was taking over for Jay because it had been talked about for five years. Furthermore, people have remote controls and can change the channel.

Everyone knew that Conan was on, but people simply didn't want to watch. Conan's show just wasn't as good as what he replaced and the audience responded. It never mattered to Jay Leno what was on at 10 PM. NBC has had plenty of bad shows over the years, yet his Tonight Show ratings have always been strong. Conan's show failed and that's that.

Leno put the viewers to sleep at 10 pm and killed the rest of the schedule. Lead in mattered to the 11 o'clock news, that's why their numbers dropped. And it mattered to Conan. That's why NBC yanked the plug on Leno at 10.

NBC has had great shows at 10 pm over the years. Some better than others. But with the same dog at 10 pm 5 days a week, Conan was screwed. People weren't watching Leno at 10 pm so no one was seeing the promos they ran for Conan's show. And yes, people do tune in to see shows based on promos.

Saying that "Conan's show failed and that's that" isn't very accurate. NBC wanted him to continue as host of the tonight show. But they wanted to delay the start by 1/2 hour (if I remember correctly) and have a new Leno show as a 11:30 lead in. Conan wasn't interested in that.

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Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Wait a minute....
Even some at NBC had 2nd thoughts by the time Leno's handoff to Conan became reality. Leno's show at 10PM was because NBC didn't want to totally lose Leno, let alone seeing him on another network competing against the Tonight Show. They never expected Leno to still be king by the time the handoff arrived. Leno could've named his price and network to compete against the Tonight Show if he'd wanted. So NBC did what they could to keep that from happening.

Back when NBC came knocking on Leno's door to suggest he retire and set up his successor he admits the 5 year window seemed like a long time down the road and being more solid than ever in the ratings didn't seem likely when he looked out the window and tried to see 5 years into the future. But then the 5 years flew by, he was still enjoying the show, and the ratings were excellent. But the problem was, Conan was promised the Tonight Show and the ink had long dried on the contracts. Conan, of course, could've offered to delay the handoff a year or two... but he'd be risking the handoff never coming too if he did something like that. And who's to say NBC would've went along?

Conan's Tonight Show being a 'fail' had nothing to do with Leno, except if you want to argue his 10PM show provided a poor lead in to local news and then the new Tonight Show.

But Jay getting the Tonight Show back had more to do with Conan losing it and some NBC brass (and affiliates) wanting Leno back in the Tonight Show seat (because he was king of the ratings when he was forced into giving it up). I'm not really sure how Jay gets blame in that. The Tonight Show is his dream gig...

I'm not sure how Jay comes out the bad guy in the initial happenings with Conan. He stepped aside as he promised. He didn't want to fade away though and was going to stay on TV somewhere. NBC is the one that never considered the possibility that Jay could be hotter than ever and they'd be making him a free agent when Conan took over.

Last edited by Bball; 01-25-2014 at 12:38 AM.

Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

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"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, that’s teamwork."