'This is the new stuff': Rock Hall noms Nirvana, Peter Gabriel, YES

It's that time again, the time where music lovers indulge their inner penchant for horse races, and place bets on which music legends will be inducted into The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. And since our batting average at this (with a few notable misses) has been better than average, we once again step back, take a look at these notable musicians' careers, and try to predict the often inscrutable ways of the Rock Hall. But to make it easy on ourselves, we're going to start with this year's only real shoe-in, and a couple of artists who were, in their own ways, just as revolutionary.

NirvanaWhy They'll Be Inducted: BECAUSE THEY'RE NIRVANA! … OK. I can see where you might want more than that. Fine. With its fusion of a punk sensibility and classic rock structure, Nirvana pretty much blasted open rock's doors in the '90s, carrying with them the “grunge” wave, which was really more a blast of muscular, guitar-driven rock 'n' roll than anything. As new as it all sounded, especially with the band's liberal use of dissonance, there's a level where Nirvana heralded a back-to-the-basics mentality in music, and that's been the key to its endurance over all these years in the wake of lead singer Kurt Cobain's suicide in 1994. If Nirvana itself wasn't the last great rock band, in the sense we might commonly understand the term “rock 'n' roll,” then it was certainly the beginning of rock's last great wave.

Mitigating Factors: None. Have you seen the way music journalists — this one included — have been slobbering to write about the 20th anniversary of “In Utero”? “In Utero” was Nirvana's second most famous album! Let's not even front. Nirvana is in.

Who's Being Snubbed: No one. Nirvana's place at the head of this line was preordained, but admittedly, Eddie Vedder is probably looking at the calendar until Pearl Jam's 1991 debut, “Ten,” is eligible.

Peter GabrielWhy He Might Be Inducted: Peter Gabriel is one of pop music's great virtuosos, and serious music aficionados often have an even higher opinion of him than general audiences. And when he left Genesis for a solo career, he created a firestorm of music that was innovative, culturally relevant and commercially successful … all at the same time. From “Salisbury Hill” to “Biko,” “Sledgehammer” to “Big Time,” Gabriel's solo career has produced a staggering amount of good work.

Mitigating Factors: Gabriel's got a lot of good will, but as a member of Genesis, he's already a Rock Hall inductee. That's never stopped the Hall's voters before, but it might cause some voters to throw some votes at someone a little more obscure. Also, Gabriel's been a little out of circulation lately, creating instrumental and orchestral music, so that might hinder him. But he's still a pretty good bet.

Who's Being Snubbed: We tried to reach Phil Collins for comment, but there was no reply at all …

YESWhy They Deserve to Be Inducted: Like Rush, YES was on the vanguard of prog.-rock, one of those bands that put an immense amount of thought into instrumentation and songwriting … work that's influenced a great deal of what's come afterward, particularly in the metal genre. And who hasn't been ear-wormed by “Owner of a Lonely Heart.” I mean, come on!

Why They'll Be Snubbed: Rush is already in, and that's enough to assuage the rabid hoards of prog.-rock fans. They'll get in eventually, but not this year.