Wednesday, 21 April 2010

LOCALIZE AND VIRTUALIZE

An ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano has shut down air travel in northern Europe. This event, or more precisely the far reaching impact of this event, is what's known as black swan. It wasn't an event we could fully anticipate or build plans against (even more so if it lasts a couple of months or on and off for years). The event, which has left tens of thousands of travelers stranded and essential products undelivered, is yet another demonstration of the perils of global interconnectivity without resilience.

An Age of Instability

Unfortunately, due to rapid growth in global interconnectivity, black swans like this (or worse) are going to occur more often and with greater amplitude. Why? With each new connection, the potential that a black swan (technological, natural, political, economic, financial, etc.) will have far reaching effects, increases. For more insight into this, read the new study by Buldyrev, et. al. entitled, "Catastrophic Cascade of Failures in Interdependent Networks". It demonstrates that within interdependent networks, an increase in average connectivity makes a cascading failure more likely.

So, what can we do to prevent instability? The solution isn't to formulate vague contingency plans or return to passive optimism. Obviously, that won't work. No, the solution is to improve our resilience to these systemic shocks through a social and economic transition that follows this simple formula:

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LOCALIZE AND VIRTUALIZE

An ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano has shut down air travel in northern Europe. This event, or more precisely the far reaching impact of this event, is what's known as black swan. It wasn't an event we could fully anticipate or build plans against (even more so if it lasts a couple of months or on and off for years). The event, which has left tens of thousands of travelers stranded and essential products undelivered, is yet another demonstration of the perils of global interconnectivity without resilience.

An Age of Instability

Unfortunately, due to rapid growth in global interconnectivity, black swans like this (or worse) are going to occur more often and with greater amplitude. Why? With each new connection, the potential that a black swan (technological, natural, political, economic, financial, etc.) will have far reaching effects, increases. For more insight into this, read the new study by Buldyrev, et. al. entitled, "Catastrophic Cascade of Failures in Interdependent Networks". It demonstrates that within interdependent networks, an increase in average connectivity makes a cascading failure more likely.

So, what can we do to prevent instability? The solution isn't to formulate vague contingency plans or return to passive optimism. Obviously, that won't work. No, the solution is to improve our resilience to these systemic shocks through a social and economic transition that follows this simple formula:

On Brave New War

G. Gordon Liddy Show (radio)...this is a seminal book in the truest sense of the term.. way ahead of the curve... go out and buy it right now -- G. Gordon Liddy

City JournalRobb has written an important book that every policymaker should read -- Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit)

Small Wars JournalWithout reservation Brave New War is for professional students of irregular warfare and for any citizen who wants to understand emerging trends and the dark potential of 4GW -- Frank Hoffman

Scripps Howard News ServiceA brilliant new book published by terrorism expert John Robb, titled "Brave New War," hit stores last month with virtually no fanfare. It deserves both significant attention and vigorous debate... - Thomas P.M. Barnett

Chet Richards DNIJohn has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice...

Washington Times / UPIRobb correctly finds the antidote to 4GW not in Soviet-style state structures such as the Department of Homeland Security, but in decentralization -- William Lind (the father of 4th generation warfare).

Robert PatersonHaving painted a crystal clear picture of how a war of networks is playing out, he comes to an astonishing conclusion that I hope he fills out in his next book.

The Daily DishJohn Robb of Global Guerrillas has written the most important book of the year, Brave New War. - Daily Dish (The Atlantic)

Simulated LaughterWell-written. Brave New War reads more like an action novel than a ponderous policy book. - Adam Elkus

FutureJackedGo buy a copy of this book. Now. If you are low on cash, skip a few lunches and save up the cash. It is worth it. - Michael Flagg

ZenPunditThe second audience is composed of everyone else. Brave New War is simply going to blow them away. - Mark Safranski

Haft of the SpearThere aren’t a lot of books that make me recall a 12-year-old self aching for the next issue of The Invincible Iron Man to hit the shelves. Well done.
- Michael Tanji

Ed ConeHis book posits an Army of Davids -- with the traditional nation state in the role of Goliath. - Ed Cone (Ziff Davis)

Shloky.comThis is the first real text on next generation warfare designed for the general population and it sets the bar high for following acts. It is smart, it is a short read, and it will change your thinking. - Shlok Vaidya

Politics in the ZerosI suggest this is something Lefties need to start thinking about now, as that decentralized world is coming. - Bob Morris