Government’s Brexit deal will cost £100 billion

by Alexander Fordham on 27th November 2018

A study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found that the government’s Brexit deal will leave the UK £100 billion worse off by 2030 than if it had remained in the EU. The study, which was commissioned by the People’s Vote, said that UK GDP will be 3.9% lower which is the equivalent of between £700 and £1,100 per person each year. It is said to be the equivalent of losing the economic output of Wales of the City of London.

Chancellor Philip Hammond has claimed that the government’s Brexit deal is better than staying in the EU, a sentiment which Theresa May has echoed. It remains to be seen who is correct, but we should have more of an idea in 12 years. That is, if a deal has been agreed by Parliament by then. Indeed, May delivered a statement on the EU Brexit summit to the Commons and after an hour not a single person from any political party said anything in support of her Brexit deal.

And then Trump opened his big mouth and said that May’s Brexit deal sounds like a ‘great deal for the EU’. The former reality television star spoke to reporters outside the White House and suggested that the UK might not be able to trade with the US. A No 10 spokesman responded by saying Trump’s take on Brexit was wrong.

At one point, May said that economic forecasts are so unreliable that there is debate over whether they count as fact. While we couldn’t possibly comment on that, we have said before that currency forecasts are extremely unreliable and, in many ways, are not worth the paper they are written on. Far better to completely remove the risk by fixing one exchange rate for 12 months with a forward contract – speak to your Personal Trader on 020 7898 0541 to find out more.

On Sunday afternoon, French President, Emmanuel Macron, said that the UK will stay in the customs union unless Downing Street gives European fisherman full access to British waters during the forthcoming trade negotiations. No 10 responded by saying that the EU would be in breach of the withdrawal deal if it attempted to keep the UK in the backstop agreement. The Prime Minister’s spokesman added that the UK could refer the decision to independent arbitration. This does not bode well for future talks, especially given that the threats came just 24 hours after the government’s Brexit deal was agreed by EU leaders.

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