Wednesday, November 18, 2009

H1N1 mortality risks

So we get closer and closer to reality as the CDC revises its figures which suggest that the mortality for the dreaded H1N1 infection is somewhat less than the seasonal flu. Based on their figures we would be looking at a mortality rate of anywhere between 0.007-0.045% (average about 0.017%).

A recent report from the La Jolla Institute for Allergy and Immunology: "...the conservation of a large fraction of T-cell epitopes suggests that the severity of an S-OIV infection, as far as it is determined by susceptibility of the virus to immune attack, would not differ much from that of seasonal flu. These results are consistent with reports about disease incidence, severity, and mortality rates associated with human S-OIV (swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus)" further confirms its lack of threat.

How did we all get it so wrong? And what are we going to do with all those vaccines that nobody needs?