Monday, February 8, 2016

The final Monmouth University Poll in New Hampshire found
Donald Trump with a sizable lead over his competition in the Republican race,
while Bernie Sanders held a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in the
Democratic contest.

The big question on the GOP side is who will come in second
place, with at least four candidates realistically vying for the spot. On the Democratic side, the question is
whether Clinton can reduce her deficit to the single digits.

In the retail-heavy political environment of New Hampshire,
it may all come down to the ground game – how many voters can each campaign personally
contact. Monmouth asked its poll
respondents whether they had been contacted, and if so, on behalf of whom.

Interestingly, since registered independents can – and do –
vote in either party’s primary, a significant number of likely voters in each
contest say they were contacted by both Republican and Democratic
campaigns. The numbers below give a
relative sense of how intense that outreach has been – and which candidates are
excelling in their field operations.

Candidates are listed in rank order of total voter contacts,
assuming about the same number of voters will turn out in each party’s primary. The first number in parenthesis is the
percentage of likely Republican voters who report being contacted by someone
promoting that candidate. The second
number is the percentage of likely Democratic voters who say the same.