La Niña by July?

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.

Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill updateLight east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoonThe tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Nope, to the lovely TX coast. Waiting on a call for a meeting first. Was supposed to have been early this morn, but put off for a bit. Gotta love attorney's! Damn sure wish I had gone into that field, rather than healthcare young man. Think about it. You have the Purdue background to name your future! Good luck, and I'll see yas all on the flip side! MARCO POLO Amy. Get you coming and going that way. haha

Nope, to the lovely TX coast. Waiting on a call for a meeting first. Was supposed to have been early this morn, but put off for a bit. Gotta love attorney's! Damn sure wish I had gone into that field, rather than healthcare young man. Think about it. You have the Purdue background to name your future! Good luck, and I'll see yas all on the flip side! MARCO POLO Amy. Get you coming and going that way. haha

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTICOCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDEREDA TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONGBURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUSTWEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES AREALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THECIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCATPASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THEGFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEKAGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.

Quoting code1:Of course I know! Hope your feathers do not get tarred and oiled. It's a minefield in here you know. ;-) Hi to other friends known and others to become. Procrastination is my name today. DestinJeff, take care of our beloved home town. I'm outta here for 3 weeks.

Of course I know! Hope your feathers do not get tarred and oiled. It's a minefield in here you know. ;-) Hi to other friends known, and others to become. Procrastination is my name today. DestinJeff, take care of our beloved home town. I'm outta here for 3 weeks.

Sarah,The TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) has been over the Central and Eastern Caribbean for about 3 days or so. It is producing too much wind shear near and west of the Windward Islands. Once this wave enters the Caribbean, the chances for its development diminish rapidly.

I agree, tropics are pretty much closed for business right now, as expected this time of year. However, it is showing you that these waves are ready to fire once shear lets up. That being said, the GFS maintains high sheer for the most part through 7 days. Glancing at the longer range to two weeks seems not much changes with that either. Could be July before we see our first named storm unless something develops in one of the small pockets of low shear in the SW Caribbean or East Coast.

Wow!!!! Been a long time lady!! How the heck are you? Great to see you here. Of course we know it is my fault - that is the way I planned it. I am not gonna take the blame for that oil thing however. That is just nasty.

im a blob watcher lol but u cant say it dosent look like its trying to get better organized and blobs do turn in to something bigger . thats how the storms are born . so imo blob watching is ok on my end

I'd have to disagree, it looks like a sheared mass of convection. It will probably start to weaken later today.

I can't believe you would make such an observation when it is obvious that this is clearly a case of a 1% - 1.5% chance of development! What kind of basis do you have for your argument anyway, hmmm? You know people will read your entry and make life decisions based on it, so I find it reprehensible for you to make such a claim of 2% chance of development.