According to the study, which is updated every year and describes the energy transition and the expected developments up to 2030, the Dutch solar market could also reach a remarkable 6 GW of operational installed PV capacity by 2020. This would be achieved, ECN experts said, if at least two thirds of the allocated solar capacity under the SDE+ program for large-scale solar and renewables is actually built.

The authors of the report believe that solar projects under the SDE+ program could be able to achieve a tariff of €0.10 per kWh in 2020, and that a structural further decline of around 30% is expected between 2020 and 2035.

The report also shows that renewable energies were able to increase their share in Netherlands’ power mix from only 2% in 2000 to around 6% at the end of 2016. The ECN, however, finds that this share could reach a percentage of approximately 16.7% in 2023, with solar being responsible for almost 50% of renewable energy growth between 2020 and 2023.

Most of the PV projects approved under the SDE+ program, however, have recently been completed. According to Segaar, the large 2016 budget allocations for the SDE+ program are partly realized, and another 600 MW in new PV power stations could be connected to the grid this year.

In mid-October, the Dutch government announced a new legislation that will see all coal-fired generation plants close by 2030. The directive from the Dutch coalition-pact states that the government will introduce a binding target to cut carbon emissions by 2030 in order to put a floor beneath carbon prices. The new standards also require coal plants to meet tougher limits for mercury, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. These standards will be implemented from 2021.

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