Poll: Sanford 47, Colbert Busch 46

A surging former Gov. Mark Sanford has erased Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s lead in South Carolina’s special congressional election, and the race is now a dead heat heading into Tuesday’s election, according to a new poll.

The poll conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Sanford leading Colbert Busch 47 percent to 46 percent. The survey has a 2.8-percentage-point margin of error.

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The survey paints a dramatically different picture from one released by PPP two weeks ago, which showed Sanford trailing by a yawning 9-point gap. That poll was conducted just days after damaging reports surfaced that the former Republican governor is being sued by his ex-wife, Jenny Sanford for allegedly trespassing at her home in February.

Since that time, Sanford has launched a withering assault on Colbert Busch, branding her as a liberal who would march in lockstep with her party’s leaders. The offensive is aimed at driving up her negatives among the Republican voters who dominate the state’s 1st Congressional District.

In a debate on Monday, Sanford repeatedly tried to link his opponent to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and hammered her for receiving support from Washington, D.C.-based Democratic and labor groups.

At one recent campaign stop, Sanford debated a cardboard Pelosi cut-out, calling the California Democrat a stand-in for Colbert Busch. The theatrics drew widespread ridicule, but Sanford’s aides say the publicity it generated helped drive attention to the Republican’s message.

The new poll results suggest that Sanford’s barrage has worked. The survey found that the percentage of voters who view Colbert Busch unfavorably has grown 13 percent in the past two weeks — from 31 percent to 44 percent. Pelosi’s poll numbers in the district are miserable: Just 24 percent of voters approve of her performance and 61 percent disapprove.

“The special election in South Carolina couldn’t be much closer,” said Dean Debnam, the president of PPP, said in a release accompanying the poll results. “At this point it’s just a question of whether voters are more put off by Mark Sanford or the Democrats in Washington.”

The survey of 1,239 likely voters was conducted on Saturday and Sunday.