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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Consequences of the New Student Assignment Plan

It was suggested in the post about AP classes, that under the New Student Assignment Plan it might be harder for south-end students to gain access to Ingraham and the IB program there. Why might that be?

Under the old plan Ingraham did not fill. While that makes us wonder why the school needed to expand, it also means that any student from anywhere in the District was certain that they would get an assignment there if they requested it. They had predictability. Ingraham has been very popular with south-end students. There are 143 students there from the Rainier Beach area.

But under the new plan Ingraham will be more full and assignment to the school from outside the attendance area might become uncertain. Who, you might wonder, will be going to Ingraham - and taking up those seats - under the new plan who wouldn't be going to Ingraham under the old plan? Students living north of Ballard who don't already have a sibling at Ballard.

For the next few years I think most of the students who are going to get an assignment to a popular out-of-area school will be those with siblings already in the school. There are a lot of families living north of 85th who could get into Ballard on the old distance tie-breaker but are now outside the school's attendance area. Those who got an older sibling into the school under the old rules will dominate the group of out-of-area students who get into the school under the new rules. For the first few years, there could be more than 40 out-of-area applicants with a sibling in the school so that no out-of-area student will be able to get into Ballard without using the sibling tie-breaker.

A similar dynamic will be at work north of 85th between Roosevelt and Hale which will make it difficult for any student outside the Roosevelt attendance area to get an assignment there without a sibling already in the school.

All of the rest of the students in North Ballard and Crown Hill, who would have gone to Ballard under the old rules, will now be at Ingraham, taking up the seats that used to sit empty and available for south-end students. These Ballard area students don't have a lot more attractive choices than Ingraham, so that's where they are likely to go. As noted, a similar situation will also push a lot of first-borns into Hale. Will the schools fill? Maybe. Maybe not. There's no certainty like there used to be.

But it's nearly a zero net sum deal, isn't it? A student shifting to take a seat also lets go of one. So if more seats are taken up at Ballard, forcing those Crown Hill kids into Ingraham, then seats must open up somewhere else - right? Right. The seats at Ballard that used to go to kids in Crown Hill will now go to kids from Queen Anne and Magnolia. So the seats that the Queen Anne and Magnolia students used to take should now be available. Where are they? Some of them - a lot of them - are at private schools. The greatest number of them in SPS, 103, are at Garfield - 56 in APP there. Those choices probably won't change much as I suspect many of the non-APP students are APP-siblings because nearly all of the QA/M area is outside the limit of the distance tie-breaker for Garfield. I also suppose that the 16 who chose NOVA would make that choice under the new plan.

Of the school choices by students from Queen Anne and Magnolia that are likely to be impacted by the change in the plan, the greatest number of them, 65, are at The Center School. After that, 39 are at Ingraham. 38 at Roosevelt, 32 at Nathan Hale, 7 at West Seattle, 5 at Cleveland, 4 at Sealth, 1 at Franklin and 0 at Rainier Beach.

These numbers and my assumptions lead me to project that when Queen Anne and Magnolia students are assured of access to Ballard High School, that a number of them will enroll at the school who would not have enrolled there under the old rules. This change in enrollment patterns will leave seats available at private schools and at The Center School.

If I were a member of the Center School community, I might be concerned about the size of the incoming freshman class now that families in Queen Anne and Magnolia have certain access to Ballard High School. I would consider intensifying my recruitment efforts and I would focus on Crown Hill.

Every shift brings another.

I'm thinking about four moves ahead here, and the accuracy drops with every jump, so I could be really, really wrong. However, even if I'm close to right, the families living in the south-end who reject the assignment to Rainier Beach might not find space available in the same places they found it under the old plan. It used to be at Franklin and Ingraham, but it may be at STEM, The Center School and West Seattle more. It is unlikely to be at Garfield unless you have a child there already. The end of the distance tie-breaker won't open up Ballard and Roosevelt until the sibling tie-breaker runs it course.

There are 56 APP students from QA/M at Garfield and another 47 QA/M students also there. Even if some of those 47 are not APP siblings - say only 35 of them are, if that ratio holds for other APP families, then there is reason to believe that for 400 APP students there would be over 225 APP siblings wanting to enroll at Garfield. There will be room for only 160 out-of-area students at Garfield, so non-siblings wouldn't have a chance.

Blocked access to Garfield would fill Franklin. A full Franklin would deny access to students from the Rainier Beach attendance area. Franklin has been the most popular high school choice for Rainier Beach area families. Many more students from the Rainier Beach area are enrolled at Franklin (548) than are enrolled at Rainier Beach (255). That can't continue under the new plan.

It's unclear how families in the south-end will respond to the new student assignment plan. Will just as many as ever seek high school assignment outside the area or will more of them accept the assignment to Rainier Beach? They have really been pouring out of there. See this map.

I don't think Franklin area students be able to get into Garfield very easily because most of the seats set aside for out-of-area students at Garfield will go to siblings of APP students. Also, Franklin inherits most of the students from the Cleveland area. A full Franklin cannot accept students from the Rainier Beach area in anything like the numbers they have been coming. Also, like I have been writing, the improved academic outcomes at South Cluster elementary schools is now being seen at Mercer and will soon appear at Franklin. Public opinion of Franklin will improve and people will begin to accept assignment to Franklin in higher numbers - particularly when they are shut out of Garfield.

So where will Rainier Beach families who reject that assignment find an available seat? Best guesses right now: STEM, The Center School, and West Seattle. I'm less sure about Ingraham and Hale. Sealth is looking very full under the new plan and I'm thinking there won't be space for non-siblings at Ballard or Roosevelt for years or ever at Garfield.

To choose STEM is to choose significantly higher graduation requirements. They may go for this; they may not. Presumably the families rejecting Rainier Beach are looking for something else; maybe it's STEM. It has the advantage of being close - they can get there on the 106. The Center School is also easy to reach, but it has a non-standard curriculum which isn't for everyone. West Seattle is a conventional choice, but it could be hard to access. You might have to go downtown first and then take a 55 bus to Admiral.

In April we'll know how many Rainier Beach attendance area families accept their default assignment to Rainier Beach and how many reject it and participate in Open Enrollment. In May we'll know where they found space. Everything until then is merely conjecture, but if I lived in the Rainier Beach attendance area, I would go to Open Houses for STEM, The Center School, and West Seattle.

43 comments:

Wow. How many APP students are there total? Assuming some APP students (from Washington) aren't at Garfield, maybe 5-10, this means 61-66 APP students are QA/MAG. That's a HUGE percentage of APP from QA/MAG, isn't it?

Since IB has been at Sealth it was also a popular choice for north end West Seattlites who wished to escape WSHS. Now we have an underenrolled WSHS and a full Sealth with a popular program closed off to all but those who live in the geographic zone. Obviously not a unique situation to WS.

They really stacked the deck against students in the "northern" part of West Seattle by overloading Sealth and under-enrolling and hence under-funding WSHS. It just seems so....inequitable...incomprehensible also comes to mind. Predictably bad, though, we scored on that one!!

I just looked at the K5 schools the district is predicting will be overcrowded even before the sibling issue. Both Sanislo and West Seattle Ele. are on the list.

My hunch is that this is a problem because district staff insisted on closing Cooper and putting Pathfinder in (and yes, I absolutely wanted Pathfinder to have a new home via levy funds, but not on the back of Cooper).

I also remember that Sundquist supported that closure, but has not insisted on the district fixing enrollment issues in West Seattle PRIOR to this year's reassignment. (Sorry Steve, but staff's "system can't handle it" isn't a valid reason in a lot of our eyes...and many of us work in high tech.)

Anyone else in West Seattle care to do analysis here? Because if this is the case, then the community needs to speak up way more loudly than it already is about the effects of the SAP. Like speak up to the media, etc., especially during this levy funding news cycle.

Here is a quote from the West Seattle Blog attributed to Steve Sundquist at his community meeting earlier this month:

However, Sundquist says district projections suggest that “the vast majority” of those who want to go to Denny/Sealth from outside the attendance area will be accommodated. Chief Sealth, for example (which has an open house/cultural performance night tomorrow) may be closer to 30 percent available seats than the district’s stipulated 10 percent “choice” set-aside, he said.

So, what is the basis for this information from Sundquist? Pretty different take on capacity at Sealth from Charlie.

I have a 7th grader and attended an open house at center school last night in fact. It was packed.I don't think they have much to worry about. Very impressive program, great teaching staff. They are getting a new principal, but the school seems pretty solid in there programming so I am not real worried about that end.

We will look at the STEM program next year, not wanting to waste any time on it at the moment. To many funding issues.

My understanding was that there wasn't any sibling pereference at high school, and the 10% set aside seats were to be assigned in a totally random fashion. I'm not sure why you think that siblings have a better chance of getting the 10% set-aside seats in the high schools, or I suppose the other way to interpret your thoughts are that they get a sibling prefernce in general into the school? I just checked the FAQs again, and don't see anything that suggests that the open seats have any type of sibling preference. I didn't think there was any sibling preference at the high school level, as the plan was ultimately adopted.

Just want to clarify. I think many families would be reassured if there was sibling prefernce at high school. I think there are others who would be worried that it would dwindle down the already small #s of set asides.

You're right though, it will be fascinating to watch this all play out at the high school level.

In the 10% set aside at the high schools, the first tiebreaker is sibling. It is in the NSAP and they didn't change it in the transition plan.

They are taking 10% of the freshman class of 400, so 40 seats, and making them open choice. Out of area siblings get first priority at those seats. At Ballard, and probably Roosevelt, that basically means all those seats are gone now, as there are I think close to 40 sibling incoming freshman next year.

The link I looked at was page 13 of the plan at the Seattle Schools website.

So, yes, there will basically be no room for anyone at Ballard or Roosevelt who is not in the attendance area, or who is not a sibling in the next couple years.

Rosie, there is sibling preference tiebreaker for the 10% seats for high school. But, I am unsure if they will use it this year. I'll have to shoot Tracy an e-mail and ask.

Use of the tiebreaker is how non-attendance students currently enrolled at a high school will get their sibs in. Odd we can do this for high school but not for elementary school. Must be a space thing.

Rosie, unless there was some very recent change, high school tiebreaker is siblings. Charlie is right that the 10% set aside will be a myth.

So APP is supposed to be for the top 2% or so nationally normed? And is what? 5% of district enrollment? Yet 18% of the QA/Magnolia kids enrolled in public high school are APP! Y'all are real smart over there.

Melissa, the sib tiebreaker is the same at HS, MS and elementary. We ARE doing it for K-5s, it's just not a guarantee (just as it is not a guarantee for MS and HS). People aren't complaining about a lack of sib preference for K-5, they are complaining about a lack of sib guarantees.

Dorothy, maybe 56 IS the top 2% of QA/Mag kids, but 2500 of them are in private school or lying about their address since they don't have a guarateed seat at a successfull High School? (I doubt it, but ... )

So, APP sibs seats won't be guaranteed anymore will they? They will compete with all of the other non attendance area sibs for the 40 available seats.

I think an important point is that the 10% set aside is also a myth. In theory, the lines are drawn so that there will be at least 10% set aside at every school. However, if the population estimates turn out to be wrong, then assignment area kids get first crack at the space, followed by everyone else.

For example, the District is assuming that some number of students from the Ballard HS zone will go to STEM at Cleveland. If that migration doesn't happen, then the real number will be 7% or 9%. I can dig up actual numbers if you want.

On the other hand, Ingraham has something like 30% extra space, which will all be available to students outside the assignment area. Where this will get really exciting is if the central office decides that some schools shouldn't have so much space for kids outside of the area, who may be fleeing other schools (like RBHS). In theory, if a lot of RBHS students are going to Ingraham, SPS could tell Ingraham to reduce enrollment to more closely match the number of students in the assignment area.

No, the way it was explained to me was that there was no sibling tiebreaker for high school (meaning, all the sibs would get in as attendance area kids).

The only way a non-attendance area sib can get in is thru the 10% set-asides. (It's not a guarantee but in elementary you don't have 10% of the seats set-aside.) In high school, for the transition period, you'll have 10% of the freshman class size. If there are too many people for those seats, the first people in are sibs of current students.

The NSAP document here http://www.seattleschools.org/area/board/09-10agendas/012010agenda/nsaptransitionattachment.pdf says that after high school attendance area students are assigned, tiebreakers are siblings followed by lottery (top of p. 17 of the pdf)

Um, Melissa, the sibling "tiebreaker" is that they bump the lottery. So with only 40 or so "lottery" seats available for the Freshman class, they are all going to go to out of area siblings. There is no true lottery. There may however be a lottery among out of area siblings.

Or, the school could fill with kids in the attendance area. Then, even those sibs will be out of luck. Thing is, nobody knows...

A very nice house across the street from me is going on the market in two weeks. Three+ bedrooms, two baths, a very nice house with a great yard. Not ideal for a family with young kids -- since elementary school will be Sand Point, I doubt school would be a draw anyway -- but with plenty of space for a family with teens. Eckstein and Roosevelt guaranteed and a fairly easy commute to either school and buses to downtown. I have heard the asking price will be $550K.

The transition plan says for High school there will be 10% open choice seats of the incoming freshman class. Has anybody read anywhere that it could be less, if the schools fill up with attendance area students? I have seen, if there are more seats than 10% they might be availible. Maybe I am naive but I thought the High schools had more room to be flexable so they could accomidate the 10% that the transition plan states they will offer.

Am I wrong in thinking that they are committed to providing 10% of HS seats to out of attendance area students even if they are overenrolled by attendance area kids? I thought that was required by the Assignment Plan:

Open Choice Seats at Attendance Area High Schools

Each attendance area high school will have Open Choice seats available for students from other attendance areas who are applying for assignment to that school. p. 13.

The 10% number wasn't in the actual SAP voted on last summer, but showed up this winter. Is it part of the Transition Plan or the Assignment Plan?

More real estate--there is a cute house for rent 1/2 block south of TOPS on Franklin. Pay rent for a year (I'm assuming there is a lease), get your kindergartener into TOPS via the Eastlake set aside generously reinstated by the Board and then you can move anywhere you like and keep your kids at TOPS through 8th grade!

If you do, I hope you will donate generously to Friends of TOPS to help the other families who can't afford that kind of investment. (Or maybe we should ask the landlord for a cut of the rent?)

Here is a link from the district that - in a round about way - shows that Denny and Sealth will be both overbooked with their attendence area students. The analysis disingenuously goes on to use recent historical patterns (um, under the OLD plan) to predict future trends. The bottom line is the district included 6 elementary schools in the "South" area (Denny/Sealth), and only 4 in the "North" area (WSH/Madison). Ten divided by 2 is FIVE, folks! Inequitable, incomprehensible, predictably bad.

I think the scenarios being spun are possibilities (i.e. North Ballard -> Ingraham, QA -> Ballard, QA private school -> Ballard, . . . .), but that if we really want to play that game, we should come up with numbers. Perhaps we can have a SPS school pool, w/ predictions of how many students will be at each high school, and how many will be in area/out of area/siblings, say, just for the Freshman class. I don't feel confident of any predictions, but it would be fun to see if the predictors on this blog, and their back of the envelope calculations did as well, better, worse than the SPS. It's kind of like poker.

wsnorth -- I think I understand there might be a real problem with the allocation of WS & Sealth schools, a domino effect from the Denney/Sealth alignment, but just the #'s of elementary schools don't tell you anything, since, elementaries can range from 250 to 550 students.

The data indicates the Denny/Sealth single grade enrollment at between 325 - 350, which is basically at or above capacity - no open seats, unless more students "leave" then "come in" to the attendance area schools.

Anyway, I guess the really appalling thing is this situation is not unique to West Seattle. The "10% choice seats" seems to have been a ruse of sorts - maybe an average district wide, or something. On a school by school basis it looks like several inequities exist.

wsnorth is right- I spoke with DeBell at the first WS community meeting along with three other Madison teachers- we brougt data regarding projected impacts the assignment plan would have on our program's population, offerings/structures, and scores. We reminded him about the multiple recognitions from the state and Phi Delta Kappa- more than any other MS in the district (even without Spectrum/APP programs housed in our building we out pace growth norms for both identfied groups in reading and math). This plan not only guts the school, it slaps us in the face. We feel as if we are being punished for our success. We made DeBell feel so uncomfortable he had to leave. I was so upset by this meeting, I was only a trip into my room away from emailing the media when my principal stopped me and let me know that the district called and said they were going to fix the problem. So, I didn't and trusted that a solution was coming with the second set of boundary maps. Lies. Sundquist had a potential solution he then reneged on.We were forced to take a program that is as empty as the assurances the district gave us that the feeder school issue would be resolved . This - in the words of the kids I teach- sucks.

How 'bout we start with the current freshman enrollment numbers for all the high schools. Then, we make a prediction of + (or -) n students for each school. Then, we break that down into 3 categories: 1) attendance area 2) siblings 3) out-of-attendance area attendance. 4) where the out-of-attendance area kids come from.

For the 3 option high schools, we could do a break down of which attendance area the kids come from.

We don't know if the District will stand firm on the 10% set-aside for out-of-area students if the in-area enrollment exceeds expectations. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

We do know that in the competition for those out-of-area seats, all of the out-of-area siblings will have a tie-breaker advantage and be enrolled before any out-of-area non-siblings. At a lot of schools there will be so many out-of-area siblings applying that out-of-area non-siblings will have no opportunity for access.

At Ballard and Roosevelt there are large parts of the neighborhood which were within the limits of the distance tie-breaker under the old rules that are now outside the attendance area boundary. Families in this area with children in the school and rising siblings will take the majority - if not all - of the available out-of-area seats until those families work through the system. Only then will out-of-area seats become available for non-siblings.

Garfield is a special case. There are about 400 APP students at Garfield. Of these, about 325 are from outside the Garfield attendance area. Judging from a representative sample, we can reckon that these 325 students have about 200 siblings who might also want to attend Garfield. Since there are only about 160 seats available for out-of-area students, this means that it is unlikely that there will EVER be out-of-area seats available at Garfield for non-siblings.

The planned over-crowding at Sealth has been well-documented.

Garfield will become closed to Franklin area families who don't already have a child in that school. That will be a big change, since more of them have chosen Garfield than Franklin. With that opportunity closed off and an improved opinion of Franklin, more of them will be at Franklin. Also, nearly all of the Cleveland area students will be assigned to Franklin as well. That could close off Franklin as an option for Rainier Beach families.

This will be a big change for them since they have chosen Franklin over Rainier Beach nearly two-to-one.

So here's the $64,000 question: where will Rainier Beach attendance area families seek assignment?

The area cannot send 500 students to Franklin. The most there will be 120.

Will they be able to send 140 to Ingraham? Maybe not.

With Ballard closed to them, Crown Hill, Blue Ridge, and Loyal Heights families may fill Ingraham. It's unclear if the school will be able to continue to accomodate 143 students from the Rainier Beach area.

Hale isn't that big to begin with and now a lot of Northeast families will make it their choice. Families in that area have sent only very few non-APP students south of the Ship Canal. Less than 50.

But Charlie, your matrix is too simple, and, in fact, assigns values in mine. If there are no out of area siblings assigned to any of those schools, the rest of my table gets filled with zeros.

I do want to make predictions about the size of class in the attendance area high schools, though, 'cause that's part of the predictions the SPS has had to make, and, it is no longer a fixed number, since they have to accept all attendance area comers.

Here are the state enrollment counts for the HS's, as of Oct 1, 2009 (for the freshman class):

Though not in the neighborhood, and I know how inconvenient and unfair that is, Stem, NOVA, Center and West Seattle are great choices for Rainier Beach families! Heck, they are great choices for any family in the district.

West Seattle is a large comprehensive high school, with and has everything that goes along with a large comprehensive HS (music, sports, the arts, AP).

NOVA is a small, top performing, alternative school with some of the highest SAT scores in the district.

Center is a top performing, small, performing arts focused school, with some of the top WASL and SAT scores in the district.

Stem will be a science, technology, engineering and math magnet, with full college prep offerings (and small classes for awhile).

The only poor choice families in Rainier Beach have is Rainier beach HS, but it appears that they will be able to avoid RBHS if they choose to.

students who are prepared for a rigorous school environment, and want it, will be able to get it at WS HS, Stem, NOVA or Center.

Bella, it wouldn't be so bad, except that the thing the SAP is supposedly providing parents is predictability. Well, let me backtrack. RB-area families do get predictability -- predictable access to a school that they have by and large signalled they consider unacceptable and that people elsewhere in the city certainly haven't chosen. Or they get unpredictable access to more acceptable choices. Minus geography, it's exactly the situation that QA/Magnolia considered unacceptable and was part of the rationale for the SAP.

SPSMom said: "You are forgetting, out of district enrollment, including the Avaition Academy, and private schools."

You are absolutely right.

I recently talked with friends in the RBHS zone -- they are currently in private middle school in 8th grade. After telling me that RBHS is a non-starter for them, they said they have applied to Aviation, Seattle Prep and Lakeside.

Bella said: "Center is a top performing, small, performing arts focused school, with some of the top WASL and SAT scores in the district."

This is NOT the case. Center is a visual-art focused school that also happens to have PARTNERSHIPS with Seattle Rep and, occasionally, other groups at Seattle Center. They don't have a music program, nor a dance program, but do offer some drama classes. They offer workshops in a variety of disciplines, but they are NOT a performing arts school.

That said, they are a great school, but don't go there thinking your child will get the kind of performing arts program available at Roosevelt; they won't.

Education Acroynms

Advanced Learning - SPS' three-tier program for advanced learners. Made up of APP, Spectrum and ALOs. (Note: the name of the district program is "Advanced Learning Services and Programs" but these three programs fall under "Highly Capable Services" of AL Services and Programs.

ALO - Advanced Learning Opportunity, the third tier of SPS' Advanced Learning program

AP - Advanced Placement. A national program of college-level classes given in high schools.

APP - Accelerated Progress Program. One of the levels of the Advanced Learning Program. NOTE: the name of this program is now "HIGHLY CAPABLE COHORT." This change occurred in 2014.

ASB - Associated Student Body. High school leadership groups.

AYP - Adequate Yearly Progress. Part of NCLB.

BEX - Building Excellence. SPS' capital renovation/rebuilding program that is funded via the BEX levy. Every 3 years there is the Operations levy and either the BEX or BTA levies as those two levies rotate in six year cycles).

BLT - Building Leadership Team. Staff members at a school who meet regularly to discuss building issues.

BTA - Buildings, Technology, Academics. The major maintenance/other capital fund for SPS. Originally BTA was to cover major maintenance like HVAC (heating, ventilation, air conditioning), roofs, waterlines, etc.) but now covers wide swaths of items like athletic fields, technology and funding academic needs.

CAICEE - Community Advisory Committee for Investing in Educational Excellence. Created by former Superintendent Manhas in 2008, to issue a report about reform recommendations for SPS.

CSIP - Continuous School Improvement Plan, the plan for improvement for each school as required by state law.

EOC - End of Course Assessments, given in math and science, required for high school graduationESEA - Elementary and Secondary Education Act, the federal law that governs education, includes the NCLB accountability provisions.

e-STEM or e-STEAM - STEM or STEAM curriculum with an environmental focus.

FACMAC - Facilities and Capacity Management Advisory Committee. A district committee comprises of an all-volunteer citizen group created in 2012 to help bring research and ideas to capacity management issues in the district.

FERPA - Family Education Rights and Privacy Act. A federal law that protects students' privacy

FRL - Free and reduced lunch.

FTE - Full Time Equivalent

FY - Fiscal Year

Highly Capable Services - NEW name (as of 2014) as umbrella name for these programs: Highly Capable Cohort (formerly APP), Spectrum and ALO (Advanced Learning Opportunities).

HSPE - High School Proficiency Exam, state assessment that replaced the WASL for 10th graders, required for graduation

HQT - Highly Qualified Teacher, a standard set by federal law

IA - Instructional Assistant

IB - International Baccalaureate program. An international program of advanced classes that can either be taken as stand alone or as part of an overall IB program.

IDEA - Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. The federal law that governs special education

MAP - Measures of Academic Progress. A computer-based adaptive assessment made by NWEA and originally purchased by the district for use as a district-wide formative assessment but now used for a wide variety of purposes.

MSP - Measurement of Student Progress, the state proficiency assessment that replaced the WASL for students in grades 1-8

MTSS - Multi-Tiered Systems of Support

NCLB - No Child Left Behind, a provision of the federal education law, ESEA, introduced during the George W. Bush administration