Friday 13 May 2011 10.48 EDT
First published on Friday 13 May 2011 10.48 EDT

It has happened before, but it still feels weird to be kicking your heels, on holiday if you like, when the season has a few weeks to run. In other times this has been when the buzz is at its best: plotting how to win titles, cups, championships.

So congratulations to Bryan Redpath at Gloucester and Mark McCall at Saracens, Richard Cockerill at Leicester and particularly Jim Mallinder at Northampton, because he's not only contesting the championship but a double header, with the Heineken Cup final against Leinster down the line. I'm envious of you all.

While the less successful think about next season, budgets, salary caps, players who might or might not be arriving, or just plain where to go on holiday, you four have more pressing problems – this weekend is the Premiership play-off semi-finals – while the rest of us look on and try to second guess.

First, Leicester versus Northampton, a game that, because of local rivalry, is bound to have its moments, making discipline a big issue. It's also important that the Leicester half-backs Ben Youngs and Toby Flood recover some of the form they showed early in the Six Nations, but Saturday could also see the remaking of Anthony Allen as an England player.

Five years ago, as a 20-year-old, Allen had two unfortunate caps in the autumn Tests and also suffered when Leicester trampled all over Gloucester at the end of that season. Now the boot is on the other foot and Allen has the chance to show England and Martin Johnson that the Gloucester lad has become a Leicester man.

If he wants to make the World Cup squad and follow up the prizes he has been getting for his performances this season, now is the time and the place. The same applies to another would-be England centre, Manu Tuilagi: both have to snuff out Northampton's midfield threat, Jon Clarke and James Downey.

Quite rightly, praise is lavished on Northampton's scrummaging front row and Saints' athletic locks, who certainly took it to Perpignan in the Heineken semi-final. But Clarke and Downey are as influential. It was their power, plus a few training-ground ploys, that put Northampton on the front foot at Milton Keynes, before Soane Tonga'uiha and Courtney Lawes could do their more eye-catching stuff.

If Allen and Tuilagi don't stand firm at Welford Road it's a really difficult call, far more than Sunday's fixture at Vicarage Road, where Saracens appear to be on the right flight path for the final, having played some tight, hard games recently. Saracens are probably the most disciplined team in the Premiership and can be a bit like a machine.

The arrival of Matt Stevens has added to their firepower. He plays either side of the front row, but at loosehead prop Saracens get more from their man, in effect producing another back row. Add the remarkably mobile hooker Schalk Brits and that makes five back-rowers. Plus the vicious tackling of young Owen Farrell, a fly-half who knows how to hit, and that makes six big players around the fringes where Saracens operate.

Whereas Gloucester like to go wide pretty quickly and then reload, going the other way, Saracens go up the middle before choosing their attacking option. Frequently it's the short side. They have a game plan and the discipline to stick to it.

Gloucester, in Nicky Robinson, have one of the players of the season, and having Dave Attwood available is a big bonus, but they will miss Olivier Azam and Saracens know how to apply pressure, which is the game for semi‑final and final football.

So how does that shake down? Well, I see Saracens winning by seven to nine points on Sunday, but the other tie is difficult.

Leicester are runaway leading points scorers in the Premiership this season, but have occasionally got a bit too loose, as they were last Saturday against London Irish, when a couple of wayward passes gifted intercept tries. As Cockerill said then, they won't get away with such generosity against Northampton.

Cockerill has picked Jordan Crane at No8, as he did against Leinster in the losing Heineken Cup quarter-final, thus showing that he wants a tighter game. If he had gone for Thomas Waldrom, the coach would have thought adventure would see him to the final. You pays your money, but if there has to be a shock this weekend, then it probably will be tomorrow Saturday rather than Sunday.