Stabilisation of CO2 concentrations: Mitigation scenarios using the Petro model

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Summary

How to stabilise the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere depends crucially on baseline assumptions of future economic growth, energy demand and supply technologies etc. In this paper we investigate how different assumptions about the future affects the necessary global policy measures to reach specific concentration targets for CO2. This is done by constructing two contrasting baseline scenarios within an intertemporal model of fossil fuels markets. We find that the appropriate CO2 emission and concentration paths for a given concentration target is very dependent on the baseline. Moreover, the impact on oil wealth for OPEC and other oil producers of stabilising CO2 concentrations depends significantly on both the baseline and on whether the target is reached through carbon taxes or autonomous echnological change in carbon-free energy sources. Carbon leakage through changes in international fossil fuel prices is found to be negligible and possibly negative.