Defensive medicine is a concept familiar to most of us these days, with some research suggesting that as many as 90% of doctors prescribe unnecessary medication, tests or even surgical procedures. Similarly, defensive analysis is when leaders seek excessive data and analyses as a substitute for decision making and leadership.

This defensive analysis is reflected in the oft-repeated “no one got fired for hiring (insert your favorite reputed professional service firm.)” The desire to make considered, fact-based decisions is, of course, commendable, but what is the cost of this behavior when it becomes a crutch for not making decisions or taking potentially unpopular action? Defensive analysis is not simply about delaying decisions but also undertaking analysis (that leaders, at some level, know is unnecessary) only as a “cover” for decisions that may turn out to be imperfect in hindsight.

The more uncertain and complex the situation, the less likely it is that analytical rigor will produce a “good” decision. The delay caused by getting more information does not result in a better decision, just a later one that can be more easily justified. Ironically, more analysis and data can actually lead to a poorer decision – the more data you have, the more you can cherry pick what supports your conclusion and ignore what doesn’t.

Research that Gerd Gigerenzer presents in his book Risk Savvy: How To Make Good Decisions clearly shows that leaders are afraid to admit making decisions based on gut feeling and spend considerable amounts of time, energy and money justifying these “gut decisions” with data, analysis and pricey consulting reports. Not acknowledging that the course of action is based on a “gut feeling” makes it more difficult to question and challenge assumptions, leading to a false sense of security and fewer changes in direction – even those that are needed.

In one instance, a business unit leader I worked with knew that a member of his team was not performing up to expectations. Rather than make a decision, he felt the need to collect and document data to ensure that a decision made could never be questioned. This defensive need for data was largely driven by his desire for cover should things not turn out as expected. The underperforming individual was left in his current role while the leader evaluated and documented his performance to “make” a considered decision. Of course, since the individual had already lost the confidence of the leader, the conclusion was never in doubt but the delayed decision caused harm to the company, the individual and the credibility of the leader amongst the rest of the team.

Defensive medicine has gotten more and more prevalent (and expensive) with each new invention of tests and procedures. My colleague once asked his doctor why she wouldn’t just conduct an exhaustive set of tests to diagnosis any potential problem early? His doctor was quick to point out that apart from the cost, this would also take all his time for months and months – not to mention exposing him to potentially harmful radiation and other side-effects. This is essentially what we often do when analyzing business problems. This overuse of analysis is only going to get worse. In the digital world, and with advances in artificial intelligence, we can perform a greater array of analyses that get ever more difficult to truly understand and interpret. This heightens the need for transparency of the value and certainty of what the analyses are actually saying.

What can you do to avoid this unnecessary and harmful defensive analysis in your organization? 1) Acknowledge the uncertainty in many situations and make it “ok to fail.” 2) Promote vigorous debate over the path forward that recognizes the value of both data and “gut-feeling” or experience. While robust data should never be discarded in favor of opinions from even the most experienced experts, recognize that what may be touted as rigorous and precise analysis is often based on uncertain inputs and thus sensitive to changes in the situation. 3) Combat false certainty by constantly questioning and challenging your plans and be willing to make changes when needed.

Kotter is a consulting firm that helps clients amplify their own potential and overcome the barriers to leading complex change. Founded by the world’s foremost change expert, Dr. John Kotter, our work is grounded in decades of empirical research conducted at Harvard Busines...