Weak northwesterly flow aloft continues across the area today and tonight with a trough of low pressure in the Lee of The Rockies. Light south to southeasterly winds will become more southerly at 10 to 15 miles per hour this afternoon, then light southeasterly again late this afternoon into the evening. Scattered thunderstorms near Elkhart to Hugoton will gradually weaken next few hours, with some possible development again in the late morning and afternoon near the Oklahoma border. Some light ground fog may again develop early this morning if cirrus cloudiness is not as heavy. Models show increasing cirrus cloudiness especially west of Dodge City today into tonight. Highs today will be a little warmer and in the low to middle 90s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

For Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from The Rockies and into the Central Plains, then exit into central Kansas by Tuesday morning. Will continue to carry around 50 probability of precipitation mainly after 7 PM Monday with a possible mesoscale convective system forming. New NAM has little to nothing and is odd model out. Severe chances do not look that great, but maybe some marginal severe with small hail, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts to less than 50 miles per hour. Highs on Monday will be around 90.

For Tuesday, some lingering storms will be exciting the area mainly east of Dodge City in the morning as the short wave moves east. Highs on Tuesday will be around 90.

For the period of Wednesday into Saturday, upper level warm ridging returns to the Central Plains followed by another northern plains shortwave Friday and Saturday. Highs will warm into the low to middle 90s on Wednesday and Thursday, then cool into the upper 80s Friday and Saturday. The chances for measurable rainfall look low at this time through the period.

VFR conditions will continue through this taf period. Light southerly winds are expected to continue as well given a weak surface pressure gradient. Strong convection is likely by early Monday evening, however this is well outside the forecast timing of this terminal period.