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NCAAF Picks

SEC Championship Game - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators

Are you wondering whether to take the huge number with Florida or should Alabama be the way to go in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game? Capper with incredible 45-22 (67.2%) ATS record, Ross Benjamin will bring absolute clarity to the situation.

#1 Alabama and #15 Florida will square off in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday. The opening kickoff from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta is slated for 4:00 PM ET, and it will be televised by CBS. This is a rematch of last year’s SEC Title Game won by Alabama 29-15. However, the Crimson Tide failed to cover that contest as a 16.5-point favorite. Furthermore, this will be the 9th time since 1992 that these schools have faced each other in the conference championship game, and those results ended in a 4-4 split.

The current (11/30) college football betting odds at BetOnline has Alabama as a 24.0-point favorite, and there’s a posted total of 41.0. This marks the largest point spread in a SEC Championship Game since 1995.

The Offenses

It’s no secret that the strength of Florida’s team is certainly not its offense. That’s especially been apparent over their last 4 games in which they went 2-2. During that period, the Gators averaged a paltry 14.7 points scored and 272.5 yards gained per game.

Alabama has displayed a balanced offensive attack this season on their way to a perfect 12-0 record. The Crimson Tide is averaging 248 yards rushing and 231 passing per game. They’ve consistently worn down opponents with the physicality of their running game, and in turn, led to favorable opportunities with its vertical passing game.

The Defenses

The Gators stop unit stellar play has been a major component to their success this season. They’ve allowed just 14.6 points and 291.6 yards per game. Nevertheless, they’ve shown signs of wearing down of late. Florida’s opponents have amassed 219 yards or more rushing in 4 of their last 6 games. Additionally, the Gators have allowed an average of 383.0 yards per contest over their last 4 games against Arkansas, South Carolina, LSU, and Florida State. Excluding Florida State, those other 3 opponents aren’t exactly considered to be offensive juggernauts.

Alabama’s defense has allowed 14 points or less and fewer than 279 yards in 10 of its 12 games. As a matter of fact, during their previous 4 contests, they’ve allowed 4.5 points and 191.3 yards per game. The Crimson Tide defense has been nothing short of sensational and dominant in 2016.

Final Take and Pick

Alabama has been a favorite in all 12 of their games this year. As a matter of fact, the average point spread on Alabama this year has been -23.6, and ironically its almost identical to the betting odds for Saturday’s game. This will be just the 4th time this season that Florida (9-3) is an underdog, and they went 1-2 ATS on the previous 3 occasions. I very rarely like to lay this big of a number, but I’m going to do so for one of this week’s college football predictions.