Almost 8% of global GDP could be generated in China's Yangtze River basin by 2050, but only if water shortages are dealt with. Photograph: STR/AFP/Getty Images

The world's ten most populous river basins will account for almost a quarter of global GDP by 2050, according to research by Frontier Economics laid out in a new study commissioned by HSBC.

The portion of global economic output provided by these regions is projected to more than double between 2010 and 2050, with almost 8% of global GDP to be generated along China's Yangtze River by mid-century.

In 2010 roughly one dollar in ten of global economic output came from one of the ten river basins shown below, but in 2050 this figure is predicted to be 24.7%.

Source: figures from HSBC and Frontier Economics

Publication of the report coincides with the launch of the HSBC Water Programme, a $100m, five year partnership with WWF, WaterAid and Earthwatch aimed at combatting water risks in river basins and raising awareness of broader global water issues.

The launch of the Water Programme is covered in greater detail on our environment blog here, including the following quote from Barbara Frost, CEO of WaterAid:

This partnership will result in 1.1 million people gaining access to safe water and 1.9 million to improved hygiene and sanitation in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Nigeria and Ghana.

Most of the rivers in question are located in emerging economies - the Nile in Egypt, the Ganges in India, the Niger in West Africa - and such surges in economic activity could lift millions out of poverty, but these projections will only be realised if management of these regions' water supplies is improved significantly.

Source: figures from HSBC, Frontier Economics, OECD

An OECD model of water usage in 2050 shows that the largest increases in consumption are expected to come among the 'BRIICS' group of nations - Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa.

Total water consumption across BRIICS nations is projected to increase by 78% between 2000 and 2050, from 1,827 to 3,263 cubic kilometres, whereas the corresponding global figure will rise by a more modest 53%.

According to the UN's latest World Water Development Report, water supplies in several of the ten basins featuring in the Frontier Economics report are being over-exploited. The map below shows water scarcity across the globe, with the darkest regions representing areas where water use exceeds minimum recharge levels.

Global patterns of water exploitation, coloured according to water stress indicator (WSI). Click for larger image. Illustration: United Nations Environment Programme

The Frontier Economics study shows that water use in seven of the ten river basins will be at unsustainable levels (30% or more of natural run-off being consumed) by 2050 if resource management does not improve.

Global distribution of different indicators of water scarcity. Click for larger image including description of categories. Illustration: UNESCO

Also included in the report are calculation of the benefits that would arise from meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) targets for water, and from going one step further to achieve universal access to water.

Several Latin American and Central African countries could see annual GDP increases of 5% or more if MDG targets are met, with the economic boost rising to as much as 15% with universal access.

Even China, already a major economic power, could see an annual increase in GDP of almost 1% if its entire population had access to clean water and sanitation.

Source: figures from HSBC and Frontier Economics

According to Frontier Economics' calculations, the investments required to achieve such levels of water access could be paid off in as few as fifteen months.

A cost-benefit analysis of implementing the changes required to achieve these targets shows projected returns ratios vary considerable by region.

Assuming a 35 year lifetime for the impacts of initial investments, every dollar spent on achieving universal access in Sub-Saharan Africa would yield $2.50, compared to a return of over $16 per dollar spent on equivalent work in Latin America.