000
FXUS65 KMSO 021013 CCA
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
413 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
...Very Hot and Dry Today...
...Thunderstorm Threat Returns Monday Through Wednesday...
.DISCUSSION...
Overall, today will be warmest over the next week across the
Northern Rockies. Many locations below 3000 feet will reach or
exceed 100 degrees this afternoon and may challenge temperature
records at a few spots. Extremely dry air will remain in-place for
one more day as well, however winds are anticipated to be a bit
weaker than Saturday.
Monday will be another hot day, with valley temperatures still
well into the 90s. The biggest change will be the addition of
scattered afternoon thunderstorms for southwest Montana and north
central Idaho. Instability associated with an incoming weather
disturbance will likely be enough to produce dry storms, with
gusty winds and lightning being the main threats. Later Monday
night into Tuesday morning, the atmosphere will moisten with a
monsoonal moisture wave. Overnight showers will move through
southwest Montana and north central Idaho, eventually moving
through the rest of western montana during the day Tuesday. This
disturbance could bring a few hours of welcome wetting rainfall
to many locations. Winds will be breezy with the passage of the
showers, and high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be more
seasonal, with 80s for many locations.
Wednesday brings another chance for scattered thunderstorms for
Lemhi County Idaho and southwest Montana, however relative dry
and warm conditions return Thursday and Friday across the Northern
Rockies. Southwesterly flow developing over the weekend may
increase thunderstorm chances once again, however models suggest
that the most appreciable threat will exist over southwest
Montana.
&&
.AVIATION....Mostly clear skies with occasional wildfire smoke at
mountain ridgetop altitudes and higher are expected during the
next 24 hours. High temperatures will again lead to high density
altitudes at area terminals.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$