Well, I think that if this big swing in the polls for Romney is based largely on people finally starting to tune in, then pretty soon they will become aware of what the rest of us have known for a long time.

Rocky Mountain poll, a marginal quality pollster. The only reason it isn't being dismissed out of hand is they had Spanish-language interviewers. Even with that it doesn't have a whole lot of credibility.

Elandriel:Well, I think that if this big swing in the polls for Romney is based largely on people finally starting to tune in, then pretty soon they will become aware of what the rest of us have known for a long time.

PanicMan:Elandriel: Well, I think that if this big swing in the polls for Romney is based largely on people finally starting to tune in, then pretty soon they will become aware of what the rest of us have known for a long time.

We can only hope.

I'm 100% certain it's a result of the low-information undecided voters, who don't give a shiat about learning the facts (or they would have made up their minds already), listening to the media tell them for days straight "Romney is so much better than Obama because of the debate".

I've hit my article limit for the times. I'm guessing the graphs are beginning to tick back up for Obama a bit, showing the predicted delayed reaction to the other poll's plateaus, while the article predicts a modestly favorable trend for Obama absent an unforeseeable event?

In my lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen a leading candidate take such a nose dive in the polls after one debate - which means one of two things: a) Romney is making a historic comeback, or; b) he's riding a bubble that will pop at the worst possible moment.

I hope it's B, and I hope I can post in the inevitable Fark thread on the Romney break-down before the servers crash.

Greil:I've hit my article limit for the times. I'm guessing the graphs are beginning to tick back up for Obama a bit, showing the predicted delayed reaction to the other poll's plateaus, while the article predicts a modestly favorable trend for Obama absent an unforeseeable event?

You should be able to go to the front page all you want.I know I've visited it way more than 10 times and I haven't been blocked. I have been blocked trying to the read the full blog posts though. You're basically right.

The real fun is in the Senate article. The Romney bump hasn't made it down ticket. Florida is almost solid Dem now. Even the outlier poll that had Romney up by 7 in Florida had the Republican Senate candidate down by 5. Others have double digit lead for Dem Senate in Florida, and now Silver has given Republicans only a 16% chance of getting the Senate from over 60 percent in mid-August.

Would probably support the low information theory for Romney's bump. Hopefully Obama performs better in the other debates and those who want to vote for the "winner" go to Obama.

Greil:I've hit my article limit for the times. I'm guessing the graphs are beginning to tick back up for Obama a bit, showing the predicted delayed reaction to the other poll's plateaus, while the article predicts a modestly favorable trend for Obama absent an unforeseeable event?

Use privacy or incognito mode and you can read as many articles as you want.

Carth:Greil: I've hit my article limit for the times. I'm guessing the graphs are beginning to tick back up for Obama a bit, showing the predicted delayed reaction to the other poll's plateaus, while the article predicts a modestly favorable trend for Obama absent an unforeseeable event?

Use privacy or incognito mode and you can read as many articles as you want.

Greil:I've hit my article limit for the times. I'm guessing the graphs are beginning to tick back up for Obama a bit, showing the predicted delayed reaction to the other poll's plateaus, while the article predicts a modestly favorable trend for Obama absent an unforeseeable event?

Some combination of NotScript and Ghostery on Chrome has magically deleted the paywall for me.

Hmm. Perhaps Obama's poor performance in the first debate was a trick to get people to pay more attention to the next debates, where Romney will be crushed. At least I hope this is the case. In the past, debates have had little or no influence -- so what's the big deal about them now?

hawcian:Greil: I've hit my article limit for the times. I'm guessing the graphs are beginning to tick back up for Obama a bit, showing the predicted delayed reaction to the other poll's plateaus, while the article predicts a modestly favorable trend for Obama absent an unforeseeable event?

Some combination of NotScript and Ghostery on Chrome has magically deleted the paywall for me.