New South Wales Treasurer Mike Baird reckons the economic outlook for his home state is better than at any time since the start of the global financial crisis six years ago.

In his monthly economic update released this week Baird pointed out that NSW had created more than 73,000 jobs since April 2011, when the government was elected.

Job creation in NSW, Baird noted, had been about three times greater than in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania combined over the same period.

''It [NSW] is a much more positive place to be than at any time since we've been in government. I see the movement in equity prices, the positive signs in the housing sector together with what's going on globally, as having a greater than average effect in NSW.''

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The economist John Maynard Keynes used the phrase ''animal spirits'' to describe how mass emotions can influence economic outcomes. In modern times, such ideas are referred to as consumer and business ''confidence''.

There is a view that political leaders - particularly those in senior economic roles - can have a positive impact on economic outcomes by attempting to foster a sense of confidence. This is exactly what Baird, a former banker, was doing this week.

If Baird's Victorian counterpart, Kim Wells, is feeling similarly you wouldn't know it. Far from talking things up, the Baillieu government's economic message comes across more like a minor-key dirge. There are no monthly Treasurer's updates and there have been few efforts to regularly engage with the media on the economy in any meaningful way.

There have been some efforts to articulate a positive agenda in terms of cutting red tape, boosting productivity and managing the budget responsibly.

Yet the overarching emphasis seems to have been on the challenges: a lack of federal money; major project cost blowouts inherited from Labor; the impact of the high Australian dollar; an uncertain global outlook; high construction costs; union interference; and federal incompetence.

At the same time, appearances by Wells, who is busy preparing for his third budget, have become so infrequent that trying to spot him is a bit like indulging in cryptozoology. His office might as well release some grainy photographs and dodgy-looking plaster casts of his footprints to prove he still exists.

Nor does Wells show any sign he is worried his Liberal mates in NSW are now using Victoria's pedestrian economic performance to talk up their own state.

As Baird's economic update pointed out, since the O'Farrell government was elected in April 2011, NSW has created 73,400 jobs. In Victoria, the figure is 6660. That is equivalent to about 70 new positions each week.

Given the state's population is growing by more than 1000 people a week, this is no cause for celebration, thus explaining why Victoria's unemployment rate is now 6.1 per cent, compared with 5.2 per cent a year ago. More broadly, Victoria's economy has been performing only marginally better than South Australia and Tasmania.

Again, this isn't cause for celebration. For example, using the Bureau of Statistics' less volatile trend measure, retail trade in Victoria grew by just 0.06 per cent over the year to January 2013, compared with 1.9 per cent in NSW.

Another measure is total new business investment: in Victoria it plunged by 13.3 per cent in the September quarter of 2012 compared with the September quarter of 2011, while in NSW it fell by 1.1 per cent over the same period.

Victoria has performed better in terms of housing construction, although it is still well behind NSW. In trend terms, the total number of dwellings approved by local councils increased by 9.5 per cent over the year to December, compared with a surge of 19.7 per cent in NSW. Victoria isn't about to return to its ''rust-bucket'' days but the economy has clearly slowed from a jog to what could be described as a leisurely amble. Businesses are now looking for reassurance.

If the Baillieu government has an economic sales pitch it is that government debt continues to be triple-A rated, with a stable outlook. (NSW, too, is rated triple-A, although only one of three major ratings agencies, Fitch, has assessed its outlook as ''stable''.)

The problem is, a rating is not, in its own right, a sign of economic health. It is rather a technical and qualitative assessment of the risk a financial entity will fail to meet scheduled loan repayments.

At best, a strong rating might influence investment confidence at the margins if a particular business views a state as a stable place to invest.

A triple-A rating will also minimise interest costs on government debt.

But ask any business and they'll tell you there are many other factors likely to have a greater influence on investment decisions. A sense of confidence in the outlook for the future is high among them.

9 comments

In Queensland it's all about sacking 14,000 Queenslanders, cutting red tape and allowing toxic waste into rivers and the Great Barrier Reef and chainsaws into National Parks.

If the Victorian Baillieu wants to talk up Victoria then they should quickly start comparing it to Queensland.

Just don't forget to lose 3 Ministers and a Premier hand picked LNP boss under investigation ..... on the way.

Commenter

J. Fraser

Location

Queensland

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 7:58AM

J. Fraser,

Move to Tasmania alrealdy

Commenter

Jimc

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 9:13AM

@"Jimc"

Fearful of boat travel with Morrison on the warpath.

Could possibly get me closer to you and that doesn't appeal.

Commenter

J. Fraser

Location

Queensland

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 12:34PM

maybe I am closer than you think....

Commenter

Jimc

Location

J. Fraser's place

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 2:57PM

@J. Fraser. NSW is a LNP government. They may have created public sector jobs but how many public servants were sacked? What is the net position? Being LNP, surely this must be a negative number?

And I don't buy into the argument that governments "create" private sector jobs anymore than I'd buy into Howard's argument that the government sets interest rates. An indirect influence is not an action.

Commenter

Bennopia

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 3:48PM

The sooner we can get rid of this lazy useless government the better off we will be. They shouldnt have been elected in the first place as they were never going to be ready to govern and manage a complex State like ours.

Having duds like Wells, Bailieau and Ryan in control is a disaster in the making as Victoria is going backwards at a rapid rate and this useless mob dont seen to have a clue how to pick the economy up.

Under Bracks/Brumby Victoria was the envny of the other states - not anymore.

Commenter

Proud Victorian

Location

Sandringham

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 11:29AM

The disaster is in longer in the making - it's lived it's life and become fossilised. Poor disaster - it's bad enough being a disaster - but to be a disaster created by this lot leaves any self-respecting disaster red-faced and woe-begone

Commenter

Christopher

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 2:04PM

Proud Victorian - "Under Bracks/Brumby Victoria was the envny of the other states - not anymore" - sure the other states envy Victorians having to pay billions to union thugs in building a huge desal plant that may or may not be used, billions in waste for the Myki to replace what was working well, the North-South pipeline etc..

Commenter

hbloz

Date and time

February 28, 2013, 3:42PM

The Vic Libs have overplayed the alleged inherited financial 'mess' from the previous Brumby government. This has been used as an excuse to slash the Victorian Public Service and not to deliver any new big infrastructure projects, which are clearly needed to accommodate population growth, and in turn stimulate the economy.

No doubt liberal staffer, Dave from St Kilda will be on here soon to tell us its all AAAOK!