Five pre-season questions to kick off the Australian rugby year

Having watched a lot of cricket but played not enough golf over the holiday period, I forced myself to start thinking about rugby again over the weekend.

It seems only right that I open up for 2018 with the only thing that really comes to mind at this time of year: questions.

What’s the biggest conundrum for each set of Australian fans coming into the new season?

Does the Karmichael Hunt situation open the door for Quade Cooper at the Queensland Reds?
You’d have thought so, but given it’s been well over two weeks since Hunt was stood down for drugs charges, it’s starting to feel like a case of the longer it goes on, the longer the odds of a Cooper reprieve.

An injection of experience should be a good thing in what is shaping like a very young backline, and while there would certainly be long-term benefits in throwing the young pups in the deep end and seeing how they go, is Super Rugby really the place to be doing that? Cooper himself might be the best person to answer that, if you let him reminisce back to the Eddie Jones days.

But the thing is, even Brad Thorn knows that young blokes take time not just to mature as players, but to properly gel as combinations; Thorn has experienced exactly that in his time with Queensland Country in the NRC and many of the same players in the Reds Under-20s side.

Even if you turned him into a fulltime fullback, Cooper’s experience – not to mention his ability to read the play and spot opportunities – could be invaluable. Of course, he may not want to be that experienced head. Does he even want to play for the Reds this year?

In which case, what are the Reds’ uncontracted fullback options? Perhaps Thorn already has his man. Patrick James is a well-built, but pacy fullback with a huge boot, and just happened to wear the Country No.15 in last year’s NRC Championship win. He wouldn’t be the worst option at all.

AAP Image/Dave Hunt

Where can the Waratahs possibly improve after minimal squad changes for 2018?
The thing about starting the rugby year with questions in the third week of January is that not all answers are obvious – or even apparent! That’s the case for the Waratahs right at the moment.

We’re not going to know if they have made any improvements until the first few rounds; we might see something in the trials, but we’ve lost count of the number of times we’ve seen new approaches from teams in late January, only to see them return to same old, same old in Round 1.

Certainly, the addition of locks Rob Simmons and Tom Staniforth should make a world of difference to the Tahs set piece. The return of Kurtley Beale should give them more creativity in midfield, just as the recruitment of Alex Newsome and Curtis Rona should give them more strike power out wide.

But are we confident enough to call it, on January 16?

Whatever the answer, the Waratahs need to find improvements on 2017, and they need to show it from the outset. It was really only the whole Super Rugby strength-by-contraction debacle last year that saved them from the deeper scrutiny that they really deserved.

Can the Brumbies find the backline strike to match the forwards power?
Well, maybe, but it might all depend on how they shape their midfield.

Certainly, on paper, it looks like the Brumbies are well-catered in the forwards to cover for the losses of Scott Fardy, Jarrad Butler, and Jordan Smiler.

The return of one of the greatest opensiders to ever pull on a jersey is handy, no doubt, but ex-Western Force wrecking ball Isi Naisarani could be the buy of the year.

But the forwards have been the Brumbies’ strength in recent seasons anyway, and it’s out wide that they need to show that they made inroads. Remember, only four teams scored fewer tries last season.

So why does it depend on their shape? Well, Christian Lealiifano has been starring at flyhalf for Irish club Ulster in the Pro14 and Champions Cup, but he’s no certainty to wear the Brumbies No.10 on his return to Canberra. It might be that he’s the key at inside centre to unlocking the attacking weapons further out.

And the weapons are there; Tevita Kuridrani will be the first-choice No.13, obviously, but there’s an abundance of back-three options in James Dargaville, Andy Muirhead, Henry Speight, new recruits Chance Peni and James Verity-Amm, and fullback Tom Banks. Kyle Godwin’s not being overlooked either; I’m still trying to work out where he fits into the first XV.

AAP Image/Dean Lewins

Who will the Rebels leave out for Round 1?
It might not have been keeping Dave Wessels awake at night over Christmas, but it might start to very soon.

What a quality squad he’s assembled. And if the rumours are true, what a bloody enormous training squad he’s assembled for the pre-season!

From the current 45 listed players – and that’s not including a number of other uncontracted players known to have made their way to Melbourne for the pre-season – I count five props, two hookers, four locks, six backrowers, three scrumhalves, one flyhalf (and two very promising deputies), four centres, and six back-three players who would all look at home in the starting side.

How do you get 31 down to 23, let alone a starting XV? I don’t know, but I wish Wessels good luck in doing it. Some genuine Super Rugby players are going to be stuck in the ‘civvies’ talking to the corporate suites for the first few rounds.

Recognising what’s led to it, it’s time to start getting excited, Rebels fans.

What is Rugby Australia’s plan for keeping the game healthy in Western Australia?
This might – or should – be among the higher priorities on new CEO Raylene Castle’s to-do list now that she has the feet under the desk in the corner office.

And that’s not to say that I want Castle to come out tomorrow and proclaim, “This is our roadmap for the game in the west”, but Rugby Australia need to make it known in the immediate future that the health of the game in Western Australia is still very much part of their planning.

Whether that’s endorsement of ‘Twiggyball’, the Indo-Pacific Rugby Championship set for a March 2019 start, or allowances for former players to return to the reclaimed Western Force side for the NRC this year, whatever. It just needs to be made clear that the pathways remain open for the talented players in WA. And we know they’re there, because they were coming through.

There’s a future-proofing element to this, too; if a trans-Tasman competition becomes the basis for a completely revamped Super Rugby from 2021, you can bet the broadcasters will raise the idea of a team in another major time zone.

Brett McKay

Brett McKay is one of The Roar's good news stories and has been a rugby and cricket expert for the site since July 2009. Brett is an international and Super Rugby commentator for ABC Grandstand radio, has commentated on the Australian Under-20s Championships and National Rugby Championship live stream coverage, and has written for magazines and websites in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and the UK. He tweets from @BMcSport.

All very good questions, Geoff. It will be interesting to see what the answers are, here are my guesses though

– Quade is probably invited back into the squad in some capacity if Hunt is stood down

– The Waratahs will improve at the start of the season and then decline further as the season continues, some Waratahs fans over at GAGR are claiming that Gibson has lost the changing room—I wonder if this is true?

– Whether the Brumbies can attack properly depends entirely on their 10-12 selections and form, they have the attacking threats at 11, 13, 14 and 15.

– The Rebels will leave out more former Rebels players than former Force ones. I feel bad for the situation guys like Stirzaker are in, but the reality is that he just hasn’t shown much form the last few years, hopefully he improves

– Hopefully something…

I suspect we will see Lealiifano at 10 and Godwin at 12 at the start of the year. Godwin has played well in the past, but he was settling in last year and was injured. That 10-12 leaves us strongest on defence, and Christian can definitely lead a team with more confidence and abilities than Hawera, who did not stand out at either SR or even NRC level last year. Lealiifano is also a good 12, and has been playing well there (as well as at 10) for Ulster at times also.

Gibson would not be the first to lose the Tahs changing room. An outsider’s perspective has been that of a sense of entitlement in the squad for a long time.

It is hard not to feel bad for someone like Stirzaker, but the reality of merging 5 teams to 4 was that some players were going to be squeezed out. Due to the way the Force decision was handled I think there are definitely cases where the wrong players have been squeezed out, and I hope there is opportunity to rectify these over the next season or two rather than seeing such players lost to Australian rugby.

Barring injury I cannot see the Brumbies not starting with Lealiifano-Godwin at 10-12. Even an out of form CL would be ahead of most other options in the squad. Preseason reports rated Godwin’s attack work highly, which is hopefully a good indication for this year.
Expecting the initial back three to be Banks, Speight and Peni, which has some real pace and strength to it.
Dargaville, Verity-Amm and maybe Andrew Smith battling for the utility back bench spot.
Muirhead looked very handy and Taliauli finally started to utilise his size at times at the end of last season, but I think both will only really get a look-in in the event of injuries.

Professional sport is a competitive game off the field too. I don’t feel too bad for people being squeezed out for any reason, as if a better opportunity for them came up, the majority would take that too.

What I do feel bad for Stirzacker for is that he re-signed in 2017 for 2018 and 2019 on the basis that he was wanted, and passed up a French offer in doing so (has a French girlfriend or fiance). He has now been pushed out despite being under contract, and missed out on the opportunity he wanted to take because of that.

Had a better option not come up they’d be expecting him to hold up his end of the contract.

That being said, there is a difference between telling a player they’re unwanted and not being considered compared to telling them that at this stage they’re not in the 23, and need to improve to earn their way into the squad.

Good to hear about Godwin, Marcus. If he keeps doing that telegraphed dummy and step inside he has to get dragged. It worked for him in his first professional season, but was so easy to read and cover up ever since.

He is not in my 15 as it stands. But let’s hope he adds some dimensions to his game.

Hawera offered very little in attack too, Selector, and Godwin is at least a top class defender. I agree he needs to offer more in attack though—he was good in that match for the Wallabies, so he is capable of more.

Smith, Verity-Amm or even Peni are the other options at 12, but I think they are a little too one-dimensional with Kuridrani at 13.

There is a 10 with a very attacking mindset who is available and currently buying corn chips in Auckland. Comes at a price tho (in just about every way imaginable). Still, it would be worth the price of admission to see how he could time passes to put TK and Banks through holes.

Godwin’s left-foot kicking was a bit disappointing last year too, to the point where if his attack is not up to scratch then I would not see much advantage to starting him over a more powerful and more consistent centre combination of Smith-Kuridrani, as limited as it may appear on paper.

Frankly, I’ve no idea how to answer any of them but I’m hoping something positive comes out of the shambles of last year.

I hope Quade comes back at flyhallf for the Reds, I suspect the Brumbies will continue to dominate in the forwards and set-piece, I gave up predicting the Waratahs’ fortunes long ago and the one franchise that really intrigues me is the Rebels and the backlog of players with the Force castaways washing up mainly in Melbourne. It’s like a Lions tour. How do you foster a positive environment and get contributions from everyone when it’ll become quickly apparent who is not going to make the starting team or indeed the bench. The coach has his work cut out there.

That’s the beauty of talking rugby in January, Kia, no-one has the answers and anything is possible!

One thing I can say is that I’ve heard Dave Wessels has done a great hob of pulling the Rebels squad together already, and that there’s a really good feeling down in Melbourne already. I agree that was going to be his biggest challenge, but he might already have ticked that one off…

Doesn’t appear to be an issue at all KK. I was down there the other day, everyone is getting on like a house on fire, even the HP brothers with each other 🙂 This week they are up country, in camp.

It is common now for sides to use nearly 40 players across the season so most guys will get an opportunity at some stage.

Also, thinking back to the end of last season, there was a strong bond exhibited between the sides, both seen to be under threat at the time, so that’s probably helped. And the other thing is that Wessels clearly has them very focused on the task ahead. What might present as potential issues to us from the outside, i don’t think are even on the radar inside the group.

Wessels is a very good coach and there is.nothing like a tough preseason to pull a.squad together. However….. despite merging the Rebels and Force squad by stealth they will only become a team when they play against tough opposition. You can do only so much as a coach, playing together, forming combination in defense but especially in attack comes from spending time together on the pitch. Despite all the talent I still expect the Rebels to have a tough start of the year….unless Wessels gives priority to gis the 2017 Force players where the combinations already exist.

The issue isn’t in January or indeed the trial games in February. It’s when the squad selections start for real and people realise they’re not in the starting team. That’s when the squad harmony can break up quickly if you don’t manage it properly.

But having Wessels stay in Australian was a big coup. He seems like he’s up tot the task.

Australian Super Rugby teams sorted by average attendance in 2017
1) Reds (15,115)
2) Waratahs (14,500)
3) Brumbies (9,887)
4) Force (9,520)
5) Rebels (8,446).
The Reds will have crowd numbers closer to the NRC attendances in 2018. I couldn’t give my spare tickets away last year, particularly when no Kiwi team was playing. When the Reds play the Rebels, there will be a bigger crowd watching Quade play for Souths.

Why would the crowds drop for the REDS this year compared to last year???Hope is always around with a whole bunch of new guys and a new coach coming in and they have had very average seasons for a few years now….I think if they can get a couple of wins up early the crowds will come

‘I forced myself to start thinking about rugby again over the weekend.’

This is quite foreign to me, how does one force themselves to think about Rugby? Should come naturally 🙂

Its an intriguing year ahead I think, the Waratahs look the most settled when taking into account squads and coaching from previous seasons, while the Brumbies look more of the same and appear, as Harry alludes to, to have the more settled playing group. Do you expect any big changes in playing style Brett given Larkham is no longer directly involved?

The Reds really are a wait and see space currently, while the Rebels certainly look bolstered across the board, looking forward to finding out!

Well, in truth mate, I had to force myself to stop thinking about rugby by the end of it, so that I could start giving cricket some love!

This cross-season time of year is always a bit weird though.

And I am expecting big changes, yeah. I think Peter Hewat will bring an entirely different approach and philosophy around attack than Steve Larkham does. I think we’ll see the Brumbies attacking with a lot more instinct this season, a la how Hewat used to play himself…