Monday, May 16, 2016

A Real Bellwether of Russian Attitudes and Kremlin Fears: Zhirinovsky’s Party Moves to the Left

Paul
Goble

Staunton, May 16 – For obvious
reasons, polls of Russian attitudes are anything but a good indicator of where
Russians are heading; but there is a more reliable bellwether: the way that the
Kremlin uses its pocket opposition figures such as Vladimir Zhirinovsky of the
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia as elections approach.

In a Regnum commentary yesterday,
Mikhail Neyzhmakov points out that the LDPR has gained in the polls in recent
times and threatens to displace the Communists (KPRF) among the parties
trailing United Russia at least in part because Zhirinovsky and his colleagues
are now focusing on social problems rather than foreign policy (regnum.ru/news/polit/2132154.html).

The
LDPR and its leader have never ignored social problems, of course, but their “stress”
on them in recent times has become “especially notable.” During last month’s
Duma debate on the government’s report, LDPR and KPRF leaders “practically
changed places” in that regard, with Zhirinovsky focusing on domestic problems
and Gennady Zyuganov on foreign policy.

While
the KPRF leader was talking about the need to come up with “’a defense against
Russophobia,’” Zhirinovsky was discussing “Chubais, Zurabov, the costs of
joining the WTO, ‘the enrichment of a clutch of people,’ the need for nationalizing
heavy and extractive industries,” and so on.

That
debate is far from the only indication that the LDPR is now speaking to the
social and economic problems of Russians more than ever before. Its new program
begins not with talk about Russian boots in the Indian Ocean but calls for
raising the minimum wage, controlling inflation, raising taxes on the wealthy,
and introducing a five-year moratorium on collections from the population of
money for renovation of housing. LDPR reps in the regions echo this.

That
helps to explain the growth in the party’s popularity in the polls, but there
is still one problem, Neyzhmakov says. The LDPR has found it difficult until
very recently to get its message out to the voters. Now, that may be changing,
and its socio-economic message may be winning it support even as the other
parties only maintain their positions or even lose them.

More
than the leaders of the other parliamentary “opposition” parties, Zhirinovsky
has been “more active” on television and as usual as expressed himself more “brightly,”
to use the Regnum commentator’s term.And the LDPR has put up more signs in many regions than have the other
parties.

Of
course, parties of the right have never ignored socio-economic problems as
witness the slogans of the extreme right French National Front, the commentator
says; and of course, Zhirinovsky has always had a well-developed sense of the
direction in which the winds of public opinion are blowing.

That
is all true, but Nezhmakov does not mention one aspect of this situation that
may be even more important. The LDPR and Zhirinovsky were created by the Soviet
intelligence services and have been maintained by their Russian successors, and
thus his views and those of his party likely reflect what the Kremlin thinks
matters.

At
the end of Soviet times, the LDPR and Zhirinovsky were used as a valve for
venting the steam of the opposition and thus reducing pressures on the elite.
It seems likely that the party’s new “turn to the left” is intended to serve the
same purpose. (For background on that, see