These are just my opinions. I cannot promise that I will be perfect, but I can promise that I will seek to understand and illuminate whatever moves that the Giants make (my obsession and compulsion). I will share my love of baseball and my passion for the Giants. And I will try to teach, best that I can. Often, I tackle the prevailing mood among Giants fans and see if that is a correct stance, good or bad.

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Friday, January 09, 2009

Giants Over .500 in 2009

While I don't agree that my posts have been all about "me" recently (and I don't see how a discussion about a disagreement in viewpoint could be considered all about me), I am tired (finally) of repeating myself to people new to my work. Instead of hashing it all out in a comment, when I have time, I will try to post my answer in a complete post so that I don't have to repeat myself again.

So I will move on with this short post about a simulation of the Giants using The Hardball Times projections for 2009.

Giants Over .500 in 2009

At the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, they did a 100 trial simulation of the 2009 season using the rosters as of today and the projection from The Hardball Times. They found that the Giants ended up with an average 83.5 wins, 78.5 losses season. They won the division 21% of the time and the wildcard 8.5% of the time. That's about a 30% chance of making the playoffs in 2009.

I've been saying for a while that the Giants have a good chance of being at .500 and over, and this simulation provides some credence for this position. I don't see how they have Colorado at 88.1 wins when they gave up Holliday and I was not particularly impressed with the package of players they got back plus they haven't acquired anyone significant during the off-season, but still, they were over .500 on average in those 100 simulation seasons. I guess having Tulowitski for a full season is a big improvement, but the loss of Holliday should have had some large negative effect, one would think, unless the system thinks the subtraction of Taveras was a huge plus.

Still, something else to chew on when thinking about the Giants in 2009.

I, Me, Mine

Wow, this was easy and amazingly free. I am a big Giants fan and I hope to use my experience in business (MBA) and analytics (nearly 25 years) to bring up interesting facts to other Giants fans so that we may better understand the team's chances for success (or not) and hopefully share their insights with me. Please read my "OGC's Business Plan" link to better understand what my philosophy is for building a successful MLB team.
I want to teach and share my love of baseball and, in particular, my love for the San Francisco Giants. I will believe to my dying days that Bobby Bonds should be in Baseball’s Hall of Fame for being one of the few to bring the combination of power and speed to the game.
Why a blog? I love technology and society and just wanted to participate in this trend to see what it felt like. Plus I have a lot of questions I would like answered about the Giants and since I don't see anyone else tackling them, I've taken it upon myself to do it. Not that I'm that special, but just that I'm willing to put in the time to investigate them.