alex speier

David Ortiz' injury may be the straw that broke the Red Sox' back

The injuries had piled up to such a degree that it was easy to view it as just more of the same.

Of course David Ortiz would be spending a couple of weeks on the DL. It seemed like par for the course in a year in which the Sox had seen their anticipated starter go down at some point at every position except for first base (Adrian Gonzalez), shortstop (Mike Aviles) and catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia). And it seemed like little more than a blip, given that Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury had returned to the lineup at the time that Ortiz went down, and that Dustin Pedroia was on the cusp of doing the same.

But in retrospect, this one was different. This is not 2011, when the Sox had four players (Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and Ortiz) who ranked among the elite performers in the game. Then, the team could withstand a single player's absence and maintain its position as one of the most ferocious offenses in the game.

But this year, Ellsbury has not been able to recreate the same remarkable show he put on in 2011. Pedroia, while fighting injuries all season, has failed to live up to his career standards as one of the top offensive second basemen in the game, at a time when that is becoming a position of elite production. Gonzalez has been amidst a strong stretch since late-June, yet nothing to compare to his own career standards.

The Red Sox have had one player performing at the level of a superstar this year, one player who was a pillar in the lineup. That being the case, the absence of Ortiz has been drastically different than the other DL stints that have afflicted the Sox.

The Red Sox, after their devastating 6-4 loss on Saturday, have gone 7-11 in the 18 games since Ortiz suffered his Achilles injury on July 16. Of those 11 losses, five have been by two runs or fewer.

“This offense is too good to score that few runs,” rued infielder Nick Punto.

Yet his claim is debatable. After all, it is a very different offense now than it was when it ranked among baseball’s best. The removal of the top contributor to an elite lineup undoubtedly diminishes the group’s stature and production.

When Ortiz landed on the DL, the Sox were averaging 5.0 runs per game, the second highest average in the AL. In his absence, the Sox are scoring 4.1 runs per game, a mark that is 11th in the AL in that time.

Is it possible to suggest that the loss of Ortiz is making that big a difference to the Sox? Yes. Yes it is.

The 36-year-old is having an incredible year. He is hitting .316 with a .414 OBP (2nd in the AL, just behind Joe Mauer), .609 slugging mark (tops in the AL), 1.024 OPS (first in the AL) and 23 homers. At the time of his injury, he was amidst an amazing run in which he’d collected at least one hit and one walk in 10 straight games, a historic run of such consistent presence on the bases.

He represented the lineup position that gave the Red Sox -- by quite a bit -- their most significant advantage. Again, he led the AL in OPS, meaning that in the batter’s box, he was impacting the game like no one else in the league.

That considerable advantage over the league average designated hitter has yielded to a drastic drop in production. Here’s the line of Red Sox designated hitters in the absence of Ortiz: .250 with a .306 OBP, .353 slugging mark and .658 OPS. That is considerably below not just the marks of Ortiz but also those of the league average (.261/.335/.439/.774).

It would be foolish to say how many more wins the Sox might have had if Ortiz had been in the lineup. Perhaps he would have slumped if healthy; perhaps he wouldn’t have been able to conjure some of the magic that Pedro Ciriaco discovered in New York.

Still, the likelihood is that the Red Sox offense would have been far more potent with Ortiz in it. And at a time when the team is five games out of a wild card spot, the difference between a 7-11 and a 9-9 record over this Ortiz-less stretch represents the distinction between the Sox being three and five games out of the wild card race.

Ortiz knows this, and so it pains him to sit on the bench and watch as his team’s hopes of contention unravel.

“It's frustrating just to look at the results,” said Ortiz. “I would call that a funk that we walk through during the season. We haven't been able to be consistent lately. Hopefully, things get better and we find a way to score more runs for our pitchers.”

Ortiz knows that his absence has contributed to the offensive inconsistency. Yet despite that fact, he suggests that progress in his Achilles continues to be deliberate. His symptoms are improving but they are not gone. He still has some degree of pain in his Achilles.

Until he is pain-free, he cannot do what he described as the necessary “power drills” to receive medical clearance for a return. And so, there is a helplessness to his situation, but the slugger suggests that he cannot rush the timetable to get back on the field and risk making the injury worse.

“It's hard. Real hard. It's harder to be smart than be stupid. I want to be out there regardless, but it doesn't just depend on me. It depends on how fast my injury heals up, when I can go back out on the field without running any risks,” said Ortiz. “It's a serious injury and you got to go day by day with it.

“Everything is going pretty much the way they planned [in the pace of recovery,” he added. “This is an injury that the only thing that fixes it is time off. And this is a little difficult for me right now to watch the game on TV and not be able to be out there trying to help the ballclub. But at the same time you know I'm planning to keep on playing baseball, and I don't want to do anything stupid that can put my career in jeopardy. So got to do what they tell me to do."

It is the obvious approach, and yet that makes it no less painful for the Red Sox, whose season is slipping away at a time when they cannot muster enough offense to beat the Twins. Rallies have been sporadic and unsustainable, a reflection in part on what has proved the one injury that has overshadowed all others this season, the one that may be the proverbial straw breaking the camel’s back.

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