Friday, September 02, 2005

Gray Ups Hurricane Predictions

Colorado State University hurricane guru Dr. William Gray and his associate, Philip Klotzbach, today issued an unusual "September-October" hurricane forecast. The entire report can be read here.

The bad news is to be found by scrolling down to Tables 10 and 11: There, Dr. Gray summarizes his research by calling for an increased probability to 75% that a named storm will make landfall in the U.S. during September and a 54% chance it will be a hurricane. For October, Gray pegs the chance of a U.S. landfalling tropical storm at 49%, with a 21% chance it will be a hurricane.

Overall, Gray and Klotzbach reason the chances of an intense hurricane striking the U.S. is 43% for September and 15% for October. Comparable averages from past years level out to 27% and 6%, respectively.