The Northern Sea Route thread is mainly about the Russian route, open earlier, longer, and more reliable. It is also firmly under the thumb of Russia, Law of The Sea or no.

The North-West Passage is the only sea route that the USA can realistically control until BOE events arrive on a regular basis. As the Cold War twixt the USA and Russia is reawakening in the Arctic, I am reopening this thread, as a Public Service Broadcast for the attention of Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State of the US of A, who is determined (as is Trump) to reassert the USA in the Arctic. No matter that the USA has no warships with icebreaker capability while Russia has loads and loads.

So how is it looking for the NW Passage to be open this year? pretty good. The Chukchi and Baffin are wide open. The Beaufort is at record lows. The only question mark is about the CAA which melts out erratically. Even there temperatures are looking good for melt in the next week or so and open at both ends for ocean water incursion and ice export from the channels. Presumably ice from the CAB could close up the Garlic Press channels no matter what.

______________________________________________________________Quotes below suggest the USA thinks they can do the Arctic on the cheap____________________________________________________________________

Quote

Navy Secretary Richard Spencer called for freedom of navigation operations, or FONOPs, in the Arctic in January, and again in May, saying, “If the possibility exists to go all the way around the Northwest Passage, I’d actually give that a shot. It’s freedom of navigation. If we can do it, we’ll do it.”

Pompeo aims to counter China’s ambitions in the ArcticThe Trump administration sees the polar north as the next frontier of geopolitical competition — and it has China and Russia in its sights.

Donald Trump has finally found an international organization he likes — a highly select club whose members preside over a frozen wasteland atop of the world.

The Trump administration will throw a spotlight this week on America’s presence in the Arctic, a region the president’s team sees as “an arena of global power and competition,” as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will put it in a speech Monday in Finland. “Just because the Arctic is a place of wilderness does not mean it should become a place of lawlessness,” he’ll say, according to advance excerpts obtained by POLITICO.

Pompeo’s address, which comes ahead of meetings with officials from the seven other countries with Arctic territory, will take aim at America’s two main strategic rivals, Russia and China. Pompeo will put special emphasis on Chinese behavior, suggesting that Beijing is using the region as the latest venue for its territorial aggression.

“Do we want the Arctic Ocean to transform into a new South China Sea, fraught with militarization and competing territorial claims?” Pompeo will ask.

“Under President Trump, we are fortifying America’s security and diplomatic presence” in the Arctic, Pompeo will declare. “On the security side, partly in response to Russia’s destabilizing activities, we are hosting military exercises, strengthening our force presence, rebuilding our icebreaker fleet, expanding Coast Guard funding, and creating a new senior military post for Arctic affairs.”

U.S. NEWSThe U.S. urgently needs new icebreaker ships to patrol the Arctic. Will Trump's border wall get in the way?Just one of the two U.S. icebreakers — the Polar Star — can break the thickest ice, and it’s 12 years past its expected end of life. The Coast Guard’s most recent review found that it needs six new icebreakers to fulfill its mission, and that it needs one delivered as soon as possible to replace the Polar Star. It will take years to design and build replacement icebreakers, which will cost billions of dollars.

President Donald Trump, who proposed $750 million for a new ship, which the Senate approved earlier this year. But over the summer, heading into midterms, the House stripped that funding and diverted it to another presidential priority: the construction of a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico.

There are quite a few transits listed in recent years of boats lacking ice-breaking capabilities, i.e. yachts, yawls, ketches, schooners, sloops. (Although no doubt some of these transits would have followed behind Canadian icebreakers.)

A NWP transit by a non-icebreaking US Navy vessel is certainly possible if timed and routed correctly; possibly even this season through Passage #1 say mid-september. That would be my advice for the public service announcement (with a postscript to give the Canadian Coast Guard a heads-up just in case an early re-freeze necessitates an icebreaker)