The yellow/ orange bar is your mana. Sending messages costs mana. Messages cost more, the more active chat is. The red dudes on the side bar are lives remaining.

If you break the Board Rules, you lose a life. Lose three lives and you have to insert a quarter into your monitor. No no keep trying it, it’ll go in. As always, the Liveblog Chaos Mitigation Post is The Law.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie

I have nothing of value to add.

Seriously. I've already shared my thoughts on this game, but I don't have much in the way of substantive analysis. As I sit here trying to break down matchups and evaluating where either team has a definitive edge, I find myself sounding like Vizzini, the Sicilian kidnapper in The Princess Bride. Michigan has the best defensive line in the country, so I clearly cannot take Ohio State. But Ohio State has better linebackers, so I clearly cannot take Michigan. But Michigan has Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers, so I clearly cannot take Ohio State. But Wilton Speight is not 100%, so I clearly cannot take Michigan.

Me, thinking I know things

As I mutter these things incoherently, I can almost feel Cary Elwes smirking knowingly at me from across the table. It isn't that any particular piece of analysis is wrong. It's that it doesn't matter. This game is the culmination of two empires marching toward each other for weeks, and two mad geniuses planning, scheming, and preparing for this day for nine months. There's a good chance Jim Harbaugh ran at least one play against Hawaii solely in anticipation of the Ohio State game. I'd bet good money Urban Meyer installed a package in fall camp that he hasn't touched yet. Both coaches spent at least one sleepless summer night mentally scripting the first series. Don Brown... oh, god, the blitzes that Don Brown has been putting together for this game. There's one where Channing Stribling plays defensive end, Ryan Glasgow drops to play a deep third, and Mike McCray just runs screaming in circles. It is unstoppable.

We normal humans are unable to comprehend the levels involved here. Maybe 5% of the people reading this as good at anything as these guys are at coaching football. A select few can even understand what these titans of football industry are doing after they do it. Predicting such things ahead of time, especially under these circumstances is an exercise in futile hubris.

So instead, I sit here with whiskey in hand on Friday night pondering what these crazy bastards are going to do. It is anticipation whiskey. Saturday will bring anxiety whiskey, followed by either sorrow whiskey or exaltation whiskey. Fortunately, these various types of whiskey are contained in the same bottle. It is a versatile product. Sometimes I feel like I can deploy whiskey nearly as effectively as Jim Harbaugh can deploy a fullback. But I digress.

This game will be decided by forces us mere mortals can't grasp. This is the payoff of too many long games, plans, schemes, artifices, and misdirections to comprehend. So, in the absence of any substantive knowledge, I am forced to look to recent history, and – spoiler alert – it is not good. Michigan has lost 13 of 15. So until Michigan reverses that trend, I'm unfortunately going to have to go with the Buckeyes. Fortunately, in this instance, I know nothing. Ohio State 24, Michigan 21.

COUNTERPUNT

By Nick RoUMel

Today’s column is written by our guests from www.twosixtynine.com1. Their motto: “Half right, half the time!” Please welcome Nate Bronze and his shadowy counterpart, “Serrano.” In the meantime, Counterpunt is off looking for his lucky shirt.

BRONZE: We at “269” have barely digested our Thanksgiving feast of roasted crow, and are now back at work crunching numbers, analyzing metrics, and making bold predictions.

SERRANO: Nate, what do the data tell us?

BRONZE: Ohio State – Michigan is a big game. It has an ELO2 rating of nearly 1600. Whoever wins has an 80% chance of making the CFP.3

SERRANO: How do you know it’s not a 90% chance?

BRONZE: Because it’s a MUS4, calculated from CAM.5

SERRANO: What does Michigan need to do to win?

BRONZE: Pray for rain. There’s not much else they can do to slow down Barrett, Samuel, Weber and company. Michigan is also in trouble offensively if O’Korn plays QB.

SERRANO: Not necessarily. Expect Jabrill Peppers to get more snaps behind center, not just in the Wildcat. I believe Coach Harbaugh has been saving a lot of different looks up his sleeve for this contest.

BRONZE: They would have a much better chance if Mike Trout could play quarterback. Gosh, if he had played college football, he would have been the G.O.A.T., president of the student body, and cured cancer in his spare time.

SERRANO: Uh, right. Make the call, Nate. What’s it going to be today?

BRONZE: I have analyzed every game in each player’s college career, adjusting for factors such as strength of schedule; different coaches, teammates, and formations; injuries and even weather. This commonly known SYTYSKBATETLU6 measure tells us that Ohio State has precisely a 50% chance to win.

SERRANO: I see it differently. Using a formula that is MSIN 7 , I put Michigan’s odds for victory at 50%.

COUNTERPUNT: Enough! Don’t one of you have the balls to call this one?

BRONZE: Actually I have 50% testicular capacity...

SERRANO: ... as do I.

COUNTERPUNT: Let me have my column back, please.

BRONZE: That’s fine; I have to go clean my Mike Trout shrine anyway.

COUNTERPUNT: Here’s the call, sports fans. J-Pep takes a punt return to the house to seal the win, and strikes the pose.

DESMOND “MR. HEISMAN” HOWARD: You know Charles Woodson was also planning to strike the pose in 1997, but I paid a few players to mob him before he could do so.

CHARLES “MR. HEISMAN” WOODSON: My punt return against the Buckeyes was still better, Desmond. Plus we won the national championship.

DESMOND: Harrumph. Let our readers decide:

JABRILL PEPPERS: Ha. Wait until you see mine!

MICHIGAN 20, OSU 17

FOOTNOTES:

1 Actual website registered by Counterpunt, as yet undeveloped.

2 ELO Rating - The extent to which the game is more compelling than an Electric Light Orchestra concert.

3 CFP = College Football Playoff rankings, essentially a glorified poll that chooses three teams to compete with Alabama for the national title.

4 MUS = Made Up Statistic

5 CAM = Completely Arbitrary Measures

6 SYTYSKBATETLU = Statistic You Think You Should Know But Are Too Embarrassed To Look Up. When reading an article containing such an acronym, you skip over it and hope it isn’t mentioned again.

MGoRadio is recorded before a live retail audience at The Bo Store, 333 S. Main. If you haven’t checked out Rishi and Ryan’s latest venture, do so. Also they’ve got a big online sale through Cyber Monday—don’t wait to let your in-laws dress the kids in cute animals all winter; get those holiday gifts with Block M’s like Santa intended.

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The reason we can put out so much audio content now is it’s paid for. The show is presented by the Bo Store, UGP & Moe's and frankly would not be happening without them; Rishi and Ryan and their people have been huge MGoBlog supporters from the start.

1. Indiana After Review

O’Korn wasn’t any better close up than you thought he was when you left the stadium. De’Veon Smith got very De’Veon Smith-like runs, but Chris Evans has a really effective short area juke. Taco and Glasgow killed outside zone, which doesn’t let you ignore the nose—Taco becoming a first rounder.

2a. Across the Crooked Blue Line, with Steve Lorenz

starts at 19:36

We say names and Lorenz gets us excited. Hicks. Price. Haaarrrris? December should be good.

2b. The History and Culture of The Game, with Greg Dooley

starts at 43:34

The history of Michigan-Ohio State, how it became The Game, and why are Ohio State fans so insane (hint: Woody). Brian tells the cape story. If Penn State wins the Big Ten, who goes to the national championship? Also Brian gets served.

3. Gimmicky Top Five: Ways to Pass the Time Until IT

1:06:51

We don’t want to contemplate it. We just want to get to there or worry about it. Time refuses to comply. Schnepp is the act of turning gypsum into a useful substance.

4. The Preview of Ohio State

starts at 1:20:50

Ohio State’s offense is really hard to get to 3rd and long, but can be kicked off the field when you do. Their receivers are burly Noah Brown and eh other than some crazy slot stuff, but keeping JT Barrett from turning 2-yard gains into 7-yard gains is the key. Michigan is going to throw the kitchen sink at a defense with a couple of holes. Ugly it up and get that one big play. We’ll take a fumbled punt.

MUSIC:

“We Used to Wait”—The Arcade Fire

“The World (Is Going Up In Flames)”—Charles Bradley & The Menahan Street Band

There’s 70% off select items here at the Bo Store on 333 S. Main, and 30% off everything at UGP next door so if you’re leaving work or whatever come down and get yourself some gear. You’re no good to anybody at home right now anyway. Let’s all dry heave together!

Come down, bring beer if you like, and pull up chair. Put reader questions in the comments and we’ll try to get to them.

The Sponsors The Sponsors The Sponsors

The reason we can put out so much audio content now is it’s paid for. The show is presented by UGP & Moe's and frankly would not be happening without them; Rishi and Ryan and their people have been huge MGoBlog supporters from the start.

GIF Is Unrelated But Necessary

While all thoughts at this point are on tomorrow's capital-G Game, there are some recruiting developments to cover from last weekend's slate of official visits.

Top-100 NY OT Isaiah Wilson isn't saying much about his leaderboard, but the returns were positive from last weekend's official visit, per Sam Webb:

Another factor helping strengthen Wilson’s positive view of Michigan is the opportunity for early playing time. The four-star lineman isn’t bashful about expressing how significant that consideration will be in his final decision. That’s why offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Tim Drevno and Jim Harbaugh made it a point to mention it.

“The vibe is good,” said Wilson. “We are very comfortable with each other. We went over film and talked logistics about if I was to attend.”

Wilson has upcoming official visits to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU; his recruitment is expected to come down to Michigan and Bama.

Despite all the things implied by taking an official visit to an out-of-region program faring much better than the one to which a recruit is committed, the high school coach of three-star CA CB Elijah Hicks made it a point to say Hicks was "100 percent" committed to Notre Dame heading into last weekend's trip to Ann Arbor. That is not the post-visit vibe according to multiple reporters, including 247's Steve Wiltfong:

247Sports is told Hicks left impressed.

If Hicks didn't have any intentions of rethinking his decision to Notre Dame before the visit, a well-placed source on the Michigan side told 247Sports he certainly is now.

I'm not predicting a flip, but nothing would surprise me.

Scout's Greg Biggins talked to a few sources close to Hicks who feel there's "a very strong chance" he flips to Michigan. The push for Hicks makes sense in conjunction with the feeling that Darnay Holmes is likely to stay in California, probably at UCLA; Holmes has been non-commital about his official visit to Michigan lately. We just put in a Crystal Ball pick for Hicks to flip.

Overview

Ohio State, a small liberal arts school in rural Indiana, is mostly notable for the Midwest's largest Native American pottery museum. Jack Rogers, its most famous alum, wrote about half of the second season of "Three's Company." It has no football history of note.

Run Offense vs OSU

I'd have a good Raekwon McMillian joke if I knew anything about Wu Tang

Ohio State has a good, but not great run defense. It is not great mostly because they've had a tendency to get gashed—they're 94th in S&P+'s explosiveness metric. They have been excellent in all other facets, with every single player in their front seven with a meaningful number of snaps grading out well into the green on PFF.

OSU has been a bit wobbly against pro-style offenses. Wisconsin rushed for 6.3 yards a carry, aided by a monster Corey Clement run and some jet sweep issues. OSU made a change to shut down UW jets in the second half, but that comes with some matchup costs; Michigan might be able to get Chesson or Darboh on a nickel or safety if they judiciously deploy these motions.

Michigan State had even more success last week, averaging 6.7 yards a carry. Again, LJ Scott burnished those numbers with one huge run on which he weaved through some narrow gaps before bursting into the open field. Michigan's effectiveness here is going to be dependent on getting some big gains.

Baker frequently got caught inside and lost leverage, allowing Scott to get the edge. For instance, below the defensive line slanted to the field. Baker has to loop around to maintain lane integrity. Instead, he gets washed inside.

Credit to Michigan State for the play design. The Spartan staff knew that Ohio State has limited the jet sweep in cover 1 by sky rotating their coverage. But the Buckeye secondary got fooled by the unbalanced formation and over rotated. By further rotating in response to the jet sweep action, Ohio State was without force support.

OSU fixed this, like they fixed the jet sweeps before them. They are still inexperienced at facing pro-style outfits and you know Harbaugh and his staff has spent copious amounts of time trying to devise ways to attack whatever holes they see. That's where Michigan will have to make its hay, because the offensive line has topped out at serviceable.

KEY MATCHUP: JIM HARBAUGH and FRIENDS versus OHIO STATE'S ABILITY TO GET THEIR RUN FITS. This is not a matchup Michigan wins by out-talenting the opposition. Outsmarting is a possibility if the previous two manball games are any indication. Harbaugh will throw the kitchen sink at this defense.