“Anytime you see a statement coming out of the government, just remember there’s a rat’s nest of people fighting underneath the surface,” Kevan Harris, a sociologist at Princeton who has studied Iran extensively, told me. As [President] Rouhani tries to engage the West, he will have to contend with the hard-liners … who for more than a decade have defined their foreign policy as a covert war on the U.S. and Israel.

Saudi Arabia recently rejected a coveted seat on the U.N. Security Council it had campaigned for over two years to get. The sense of surprise in the policy analysis world has been palpable, with analysts scratching their heads trying to understand why the oil-rich monarchy would turn down one of the most prized seats in all international relations.

The Saudi rejection has been seen as especially shocking as it comes at a time when Saudi Arabia would have seemingly benefited immensely from being able to play an instrumental role in shaping international positions on Syria and Iran.Read More

Because its members have managed not to mangle each other for a few decades, the European Union received the Nobel Peace Prize last year. But all is not pacific in peaceful Europe.

If you look at Europe’s borders, it’s hard to conclude that Europe much cares about the lives of people who don’t belong to its exclusive club.

A few weeks ago, a small ship carrying some 500 people sunk at the borders of Europe off the island of Lampedusa, Italy. The tragedy claimed more than 300 lives. A subsequent tragedy a few days later cost at least 27 lives.Read More

As the U.S. and its allies prepare for another round of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, powerful and wealthy opponents—from the halls of Congress to Middle East capitols—are maneuvering to torpedo them. At stake is the real possibility of a war with consequences infinitely greater than the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

When the U.S., Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany—the so-called P5+1—sit down with Iran’s negotiators in Geneva on Nov. 7, those talks will be shadowed by an alliance of hawkish U.S. Congress members, an influential Israeli lobby, and a new regional alliance that upends traditional foes and friends in the Middle East.

The fact that the first round of talks on Oct.15 was hailed by Iran and the P5+1 as “positive” has energized opponents of the negotiations, who are moving to block any attempts at softening international sanctions against Teheran, while at the same time pressing for a military solution to the conflict.Read More

German Chancellor Merkel and President Obama in happier times. Courtesy Wikimedia Commons

While some would argue that the United States and its allies routinely spy each other, it’s one thing to bug the Germany embassy in Washington, but another to tap into the phone of the leader of the country, as well as other officials. As we recently posted, spying by the Obama administration on German Chancellor Angela Merkel was a “nadir of sorts for the United States, an utter embarrassment.” Furthermore, as McClatchy reported:

The German allegations came the same week as similar charges from France and Mexico and fast on the heels of angry allegations out of Brazil.

Adding insult to injury (McClatchy again)

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said President Barack Obama was “obviously aware” that privacy was an especially sensitive issue in Germany, given the history of the Stasi, East Germany’s secret police force. Merkel grew up in East Germany.Read More

President Obama speaking with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. Official White House photo by Pete Souza

The Middle East is normally a depressing topic of conversation with talk of ongoing wars, repressive governments, ethnic violence, and terrorist attacks. Yet two of the region’s most troublesome challenges (Syria and Iran) are on diplomatic tracks toward peaceful resolution (although success is far from assured in either of these cases).

Last weekend, Kenya’s preeminent newspaper The Nation, reported that CCTV footage showed Kenyan soldiers looting during the terrorist attack in Westgate Mall. The “Shame of Soldiers Looting Westgate,” as The Nation dubbed the footage, may be allegorical for increased American military involvement in Africa.

How is America’s military presence in Africa shifting?

Former counter-terrorism director for Africa at the Defense Department Rudolph Atallah notes that though the original design for American military presence in Africa was a small footprint “ that has dramatically changed over time,” to the extent that “Africa is front and center now for the Pentagon.”Read More

As you have no doubt heard by now, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was informed by German intelligence that her phone was subjected to American surveillance. Predictably she reacted badly and called President Obama himself to ream him out. At the New York Times, Alison Smale reported:

About an hour after the news broke in Berlin, Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, appeared before news media in Washington, reporting the Obama-Merkel phone call and saying that “the president assured the chancellor that the United States is not monitoring, and will not monitor, the communications of the chancellor.”

Left unaddressed, as has been pointed out, was whether her phone was monitored in the past. But, never fear. Ms. Smale reports: “ARD, Germany’s premier state television channel said without naming its sources that the supposed monitoring had targeted Ms. Merkel’s official cellphone, not her private one.”Read More

When Communism collapsed in 1989 in East-Central Europe, many industries collapsed with it. Factories closed, workers were out of jobs, and economies shrank. But one sector of the economy grew: the media. Where there had once been a state monopoly, now there was pluralism. There was suddenly an explosion of reporting, commentary, TV debates.

All these new media outlets – newspapers, radio programs, TV stations – needed journalists. So, many young people switched jobs and became the new reporters. During my travels in 1990, I met many of these newly minted journalists. One of them was Stanislav Holec.

We met in London in March 1990, when he was part of a delegation of Czech journalists. He was new to the profession at that time, having enlisted in the ranks at the time of the Velvet Revolution. He’d gone to school to study engineering but had soon discovered that he was more interested in rock climbing and foreign travel. The revolution couldn’t have come along at a better time.Read More

The news broke less than three weeks ago, on October 3, that Turkey, a longtime, staunch NATO member, just broke an unwritten rule of that global military alliance: it has announced it is considering a major $3.2 billion arms purchase from China of an advanced missile defense systems. The announcement triggered something approaching a panic in NATO circles. A number of commentators argue that this is Turkey’s revenge, Turkey being dissatisfied with NATO’s refusal to engage more militarily in the Syrian conflict, and worse, the U.S. change of gears – or seeming one – from an attack mode to negotiating.

This is undoubtedly true to a certain extent, but other, weightier factors are most likely at play, among them a regional shift in U.S. Middle East policy – a shift, in the aftermath of the popularly supported Egyptian military coup away from supporting the Muslim Brotherhood towards once again, giving Saudi Arabia a freer hand in helping to implement Washington’s regional strategic objectives. Enhancing the Saudi role – which bodes ill for the region – entailed somewhat downgrading Turkey’s role and slighting Ankara, after having courted and encouraged them to play a more active role in the Arab World. All that blew up in Turkey – and Washington’s face – in the Syrian conflict.Read More

About

We sniff out issues hiding in the foreign-policy forest and haul them back to the laboratory for inspection. We examine the anterior, posterior, and underside of an issue, as well as its shadows.

This blog provides a commentator with an opportunity to express his or her convictions more forcefully than may be appropriate for an article. If you have unique insight into a foreign-policy (or affairs) issue, please feel free to write a post and send it to editor Russ Wellen at [email protected]