Before I give my formal presentation, I would first like to acknowledge several colleagues who worked cooperatively to develop this proposal and presentation, Rose Gombay, and Drs. Jacqueline Mesrazos, Raima Larter, Neysa Call and Ann Carlson. I especially want to recognize Rose Gombay providing the guidance to frame this proposal in line with OECD goals.

Perhaps an article in Science magazine captured it best. It said, "very simple ingredients can produce very beautiful, rich, and patterned outputs."

Every place we look, we see a world of complexity. From mountain ranges to the Bosphorus Straight that we saw last night and to ocean currents, and from the organization of information on the Internet to communication networks, the world is full of complexity at all levels. Paradoxical as it may appear, understanding complexity in all its guises may actually help simplify science.

When we make breakthroughs in our appreciation of complex patterns; our understanding transforms and so does our ability to deal with challenges.

The abstract pattern at the start of this talk was actually a chemical pattern which emerges as a young zebra develops its stripes. It is meant to illustrate artistically how the principle and processes of emergence can work.

Because of the transformative knowledge to be gained from studying complexity, the U.S. delegation proposes a workshop entitled, "Complex Systems and the Science of Unanticipated Consequences and Unrealized Opportunities."

Complexity is an integrating concept with great power and scope. The science of complexity seeks to develop tools and methods to study the emergence of collective properties in systems with large numbers of interacting parts.

Scientists and engineers are now equipped with the necessary tools and know-how to be able to understand complex systems, especially using the tools of physics and mathematics as we've already heard.

By understanding the collective properties of a system with a large number of interacting parts, the study of complexity will provide insight into the very nature of the emerging behaviors of systems.

A global science forum would be a logical first step in mobilizing the international community.

The goals of the forum are to:
Identify principles of complex systems that would help policy makers better predict the consequences of policy actions; and
Explore ways to better enable international research capacity.

Complexity analyses are shedding light on conditions in which networks and communities are viable and strong. Or, conversely, when the anger and alienation of a particular group tips into conflict.

Complexity analysis also underlie efforts by engineers to develop self-managing sensors that adjust to environmental conditions. This type of work can also be applied to information systems, communications systems, and the like.

Researchers are using complexity analyses to analyze collective behaviors. For example, they are predicting the point at which a peaceful crowd may become a stampede.

Researchers are also using agent-based complexity models to better predict the patterns by which a disease is likely to spread into a global pandemic, and how failures in an electrical system can cascade into a large-scale black-out.

Complexity scientists are finding common patterns across dissimilar systems and unique qualities that arise at different levels of system complexity. Each time this science gives us insight into one type of system or pattern, insights into others become available.

The science of complexity is a broad interdisciplinary field encompassing a range of tools and methods for studying urgent global problems.

International efforts to study complexity are all ready underway, for example, the European Union's ERANET project, known as Complexity-NET, which has several international collaborators. The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of UK serves as coordinator. This proposal would extend the EC activity beyond the European partners currently involved and would bring science policy issues into the discussion.

This proposed workshop would result in recommendations for the research, funding and policy communities.

Expected workshop outcomes include a concise policy-level report summarizing principles of complex systems of most use to policy makers, as well as guidelines for the research funding community seeking to enable further breakthroughs by means of science and engineering. The workshop will also enhance understanding of standard definitions, educational canon, and data formats that can enable improved international collaboration.