Demography

At midyear 1997 world population stood at 5,840,000,000, according to estimates prepared by the Population Reference Bureau. The 1997 figure was more than 800 million higher than in 1987, when world population first reached five billion. It was now clear that a six billion total in world population would be reached before 2000, most probably in 1999. The 1997 figure represented an increase of about 86 million over the previous year. The annual rate of increase declined to about 1.47% in 1997 from 1.52% in 1996, a result of birthrate declines in some less-developed countries (LDCs). If the 1997 growth rate were to continue, the world’s population would double in 47 years. In 1997, 139 million babies were born, 126 million (over 90%) of them in LDCs. About 53 million people died worldwide. A smaller proportion (77%) of these were in the LDCs, a result of their much younger age structure.

Worldwide, 56% of married couples in 1997 used some method of contraception, and half of all couples were using a "modern" method, such as clinically supplied contraceptives or sterilization. In the LDCs 54% were practicing some form of family planning, and 49% were using a modern one, the latter a slight increase over 1996. The proportion of couples using modern family-planning methods in LDCs excluding China was much lower, only 36%. Regionally, this figure was 58% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 54% in Asia, and only 18% in Africa.

Worldwide, 32% of the population was below the age of 15 in 1997, but that figure was 38% in LDCs excluding China. In more developed countries (MDCs) only 20% were below age 15, as a result of the persistently low birthrate throughout Europe and in Japan. The continued younger age distribution of the LDCs in 1997 would result in a large number of people entering the childbearing ages in the near future, and so there was considerable potential for population growth in those areas. Only 4% of the population in LDCs excluding China was over the age of 65, compared with 14% in the MDCs. Sweden remained the country with the highest percentage of population above age 65 at 18%.

Nearly half, 43%, of the world population in 1997 lived in urban areas. In the LDCs 36% of the population was classified as urban, a slight increase over the previous year, compared with 74% in the MDCs. Among the world’s least urbanized countries was Rwanda, with only 5% living in urban centres. (For the World’s 25 Most Populous Urban Areas, see Table.)

City proper

Metropolitan area

Rank

City and country

Population

Year

Population

Year

1

Tokyo, Japan

7,966,195

1995 cen.

27,242,000

1996 est.

2

Mexico City, Mex.

9,815,795

1990 cen.

16,908,000

1996 est.

3

São Paulo, Braz.

9,393,753

1995 est.

16,792,000

1996 est.

4

New York City, U.S.

7,380,906

1996 est.

16,390,000

1996 est.

5

Bombay (Mumbai), India

9,925,891

1991 cen.

15,725,000

1996 est.

6

Shanghai, China

8,930,000

1993 est.

13,659,000

1996 est.

7

Los Angeles, U.S.

3,553,638

1996 est.

12,576,000

1996 est.

8

Calcutta, India

4,399,819

1991 cen.

12,118,000

1996 est.

9

Buenos Aires, Arg.

2,988,006

1995 est.

11,931,000

1996 est.

10

Seoul, S.Kor.

10,776,201

1995 est.

11,768,000

1996 est.

11

Jakarta, Indon.

9,160,500

1995 est.

11,500,000

1995 est.

12

Beijing, China

6,690,000

1993 est.

11,414,000

1996 est.

13

Lagos, Nigeria

1,518,000

1996 est.

10,878,000

1996 est.

14

Tianjin, China

5,000,000

1993 est.

10,687,000

1995 est.

15

Osaka, Japan

2,602,352

1995 cen.

10,618,000

1996 est.

16

Delhi, India

7,206,704

1991 cen.

10,298,000

1996 est.

17

Rio de Janeiro, Braz.

5,473,033

1995 est.

10,264,000

1996 est.

18

Karachi, Pak.

5,208,132

1981 cen.

10,119,000

1996 est.

19

Cairo, Egypt

6,849,000

1994 est.

9,900,000

1996 est.

20

Paris, France

2,156,766

1991 cen.

9,469,000

1995 est.

21

Manila, Phil.

1,654,761

1995 est.

9,280,000

1995 est.

22

Moscow, Russia

8,436,447

1996 est.

9,233,000

1995 est.

23

Dhaka, Bangladesh

3,839,000

1991 cen.

8,500,000

1996 est.

24

Istanbul, Tur.

7,774,169

1995 est.

7,817,000

1995 est.

25

Lima, Peru

5,706,127

1993 est.

7,452,000

1995 est.

Worldwide, life expectancy at birth was 64 years for males and 68 for females. In the MDCs the same figures were 71 and 78 and in the LDCs 62 and 65, respectively. The 1997 world infant mortality rate stood at 59 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The lowest infant mortality rates were in Western and Northern Europe, at 5 and 6 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, respectively. Although there were small decreases in some LDCs, the overall rate remained at a high level, 64.

Less-Developed Countries

In 1997 the population of the LDCs grew at 1.81% per year, 2.09% for LDCs excluding China. The total population of the LDCs was 4,666,000,000, 80% of the world total. Of the 86 million people added annually to the world population, 98% were in the LDCs. In LDCs excluding China, women still averaged four children each, unchanged from a year earlier. This remained far from the "two-child family" essential to slowing population growth to zero and stabilizing world population size.

During 1997 Africa remained the region with by far the highest fertility, an average of 5.6 children per woman, 6 in sub-Saharan Africa. New survey data released in 1997 indicated, however, that there was a continued slow decline in fertility in the region. The 1997 Demographic and Health Survey in Senegal indicated that the average number of children per woman declined from about 6 in 1992-93 to 5.7 in 1997. A similar survey in Zambia showed a decline from 6.5 in 1992 to 6.1 in 1996.

Africa’s population in 1997 totaled 743 million, an increase of about 20 million since 1996. The continent’s annual growth rate was 2.6%, the world’s highest by a wide margin and sufficient to double population size in only 26 years. In 1997 life expectancy in Africa, at 52 years for males and 55 for females, was the world’s lowest. Infant mortality was the world’s highest at 89 infant deaths per 1,000 live births.

In 1997 Latin America’s population stood at 490 million, with an annual growth rate of 1.8%, slightly lower than in 1996. The average number of children per woman fell slightly in 1997, to 3, ranging from 5.2 in Honduras to 1.5 in Cuba. Life expectancy remained at 66 years for males and 72 for females. Infant mortality stood at 39.

Asia’s population was about 3.6 billion in 1997, by far the largest of the world’s regions, up from 3.5 billion in 1996. The region’s growth rate remained at about 1.6%, which resulted in a population increase of about 56 million. Life expectancy in Asia in 1997 stood at about 64 for males and 67 for females. Women averaged 2.9 children each, 3.5 excluding China. During 1997 data released for India in 1995 showed that the country’s birthrate did not decline as much as expected. Early reports indicated that the number of new users of family planning fell sharply in 1996 as the government dropped specific demographic goals for its population program.

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