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The Playoff Picture: July 22

By: Adam Jardy

The Columbus Dispatch - July 22, 2013 12:27 PM

After losing four of its last five games, the Crew now finds itself as close to the bottom of
the Eastern Conference standings as it does to the top. With 23 points, the Crew is 13 in back of
leader Sporting Kansas City (36) and 13 ahead of woeful D.C. United (10 points).

This Crew club was touted by the front office as an MLS Cup contender before the season began,
but recent play has tempered those thoughts a bit. Team president and general manager Mark
McCullers and head coach Robert Warzycha have both expressed their belief that reaching the
playoffs is the main key. From there, the belief goes, anything can happen.

Given that, we’re rolling out a new feature on Covering The Crew. Each Monday, we’ll take a look
at where the Crew fits into the playoff picture, what needs to happen in the upcoming week to boost
the team’s chances and what other games are worth following.

Let’s take a look…

The MathSince MLS went to a 34-game schedule in the 2011 season, the final team to make the playoffs
in either conference has finished with an average of 47.8 points – an average of 1.41 points earned
per match.

The Crew now sits at 23 points through 20 games played, an average of 1.15 points earned per
match. In order to reach 47.8 points, the Crew must earn 24.8 points in its final 14 matches. That
averages out to 1.77 points earned per match, a figure that would be tops in all of MLS this
season. Current Supporters’ Shield leader Real Salt Lake is averaging 1.76 points earned per match
while posting an 11-6-4 record.

Who To Watch This WeekAside from the fact that the Crew can ill afford many more losses, if any at all, the team
needs others to start dropping points. Three of the seven teams ahead of the Crew in the Eastern
Conference have a game in hand, further complicating matters.

Chicago, which has rebounded from a disastrous early start to climb one point
ahead of the Crew while playing one fewer game, hosts
Houston seven hours after the Crew visits Toronto at 2 p.m. Houston holds the
fifth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, six points ahead of the Crew, but also has played one
fewer game. A draw here, coupled with a Crew win, would mark a two-point pickup on two teams higher
in the standings.

Saturday’s 2-0 loss to
New England was damaging to the Crew for a number of reasons. A draw would have
kept the Revolution just one point ahead, while the Crew would be even in points with Chicago and
five points out of the last playoff spot.

The Crew looks unlikely to gain points on the Revolution this weekend either: It hosts
D.C. United five hours after the Crew kicks off against Toronto.

Fourth-place
Philadelphia, which has 31 points, hosts Western Conference opponent Vancouver on
Saturday. A win by the Whitecaps would obviously benefit the Crew.

The Good NewsFour of the Crew’s six wins have come against the three teams below it in the Supporters’
Shield standings, and the club has a chance to add to that total. Toronto is 2-8-10 and has not won
since June 15, when it beat – who else? – D.C. United. Toronto enters with a six-game unbeaten
streak, but it did play New York to a scoreless draw during the weekend.

As far as points the Crew absolutely can’t afford to lose if it wants to stay in the race, these
are three. The same goes for a rematch at Crew Stadium on August 17.

In addition, the Crew’s next four matches are against Eastern Conference clubs.

The Bad NewsSee most of what has already been written above, but mostly the fact that most teams the Crew
especially needs to lose all play each other this weekend.