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Disclaimer I am not Asian I do not represent Asia I live in Asia, and have for 17 years My role is as a consultant and facilitator Designing, implementing, and monitoring EE programs Lots of failures, a few successes ;-) I have been involved with a number or regional and international organizations International Institute for Energy Conservation APEC Energy Standards Information System (www.apec.esis.org)www.apec.esis.org APEC Expert Group on Energy Efficiency & Conservation (www.egeec.apec.org)www.egeec.apec.org International CFL Harmonisation Initiative (www.apec.esis.org/cfl)www.apec.esis.org/cfl Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI) (www.efficientlighting.net)www.efficientlighting.net USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program (www.cleanenergyasia.net)www.cleanenergyasia.net

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Objectives of This Talk Identify key issues related to energy efficiency (EE) in context of energy policy Highlight and explain some case studies Address issue of how much EE costs Present some questions in a range of topic areas Caveats: This presentation discusses experience with in EE in commercial energy Does not address transportation energy Does not address links between energy and poverty

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Topics Covered About the ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Overview of energy and carbon scenarios What drives energy demand and how reliable are demand forecasts? Some case studies and examples of Energy Efficiency policies and programs How much does Energy Efficiency cost? Issues, themes and food for thought

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Growth in Personalized Transport Will Fuel Demand for Oil Growth in Number of Vehicles in Asia (1973-2002)

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How Scientific Are Demand Forecasts? Forecasting is an art, not a science Forecasters historically have tended to err on the side of overbuilding Forecasts to not tend to take into account possible EE improvements Cost of over building is rarely analyzed by fiscal agencies (no penalty for getting caught)

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U.S. Refrigerator Energy Use vs. Time, with Real Price Changes. U.S. Example: Domestic Refrigerators, 1947 - 2004 (Source: Goldstein, NRDC 2005) Refrigerator use has fallen by more than 2/3 since 1973, while volume has increased and price has decreased

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Current Status of ESIS Broadening Participation in APEC-ESIS. 38 Economy contacts participating from 17 of the 21 APEC economies. Sponsorship with CLASP for Global Database. CLASP sponsored expansion of APEC ESIS database Development of Global Standards and Labeling Database launched in August 2005 Expanded from 21 APEC economies to include 54 economies worldwide More than 1,700 standards maintained. REEEP funding to expand ESIS to WESIS World Energy Standards Information System

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World Bank Study of EE/DSM Potential in Relation to the Nam-Theun 2 Hydropower Project Carried out in 2005 Assess whether NT2 power (about 1,000 MW, 5,500 GWh/annum) is required by the Thai system by the projected commissioning date of 2010 Assess the achievable potential for Thailands initiatives at promoting EE and DSM when NT2 is proposed to come on line

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Institutional Issues (1) QUESTION: How can you get the government commitment to allocate and train human resources to get the job done? Benchmarking of DSM in some Asian countries CountryYear Estd LocationNo. Staff Comments Thailand1994Utility1501,300 MW savings to date Funded through tariff Sri Lanka1999Utility15Start-up funding from World Bank Vietnam2001Utility4.5120 MW target by 2007 Part-time staff in Power Companies Malaysia2001Energy Commission 8Start-up funding from Danida No long-term finding

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Institutional Issues (2) Korea and Mexico have set up national agencies which direct implementation of EE KEMCO in Korea CONAE in Mexico This brings a coherence to EE policy and programs What does it take to seed and enable self-sustaining energy efficiency agencies within a country?

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QUESTION: How Can We Set Carbon and Energy Use Targets that Are Equitable? ???

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Myth: Western Consultants are Needed to Help Advise Asian Governments on How to Implement EE Sure, there is a lot of great experience in Europe and the U.S. But there is also a lot of great experience 2 Examples: Energy labeling in Thailand Air conditioners in Australia and East Asia QUESTION: How can we systematize sharing of information and EE best practices between countries in Asia?

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Myth: CDM is a Mechanism that will Help Stimulate Investments in EE in Developing Countries Less than 95% of registered CDM projects are for EE Transaction costs are way too high QUESTION Programmatic CDM may be an answer, but how quickly will it happen?