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McCain strong nationally, but Romney rules in California

The final day of polling before Super Tuesday was
one of hardening positions in key races across the country, the latest
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey work shows.

Arizona Sen. John McCain continued
to dominate among Republicans in the states polled in the surveys, with 50% or
more supporting him in New Jersey and New York. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney won less than half that in those states.

Romney continued to lead, however,
in delegate-rich California, with 40% support in that state, to McCains 33%.
The Republican race was tighter in Missouri, with McCain ahead with 34%
support, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in second with 27% and Romney third
with 25% support.

On the Democratic side, New York
Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama continued to fight neck and
neck for their partys voters and delegates. Obama solidified his lead in
California, but Clinton pulled ahead in New Jersey, where the two had been tied
in the previous poll.

This is the third release of figures from rolling telephone tracking polls in New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and California. In Georgia, only the Democratic race was polled and in New York only the Republican race.

Pollster John Zogby: In California, we have Obama polling into
a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there.
What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every
part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clintons lead among
Hispanic voters.

On
the Republican side in California, Romney has solidified his edge over McCain
by virtue of a very strong showing in Southern California.

In
New Jersey, Clinton has pulled into a lead. She is ahead among Democrats,
women, and Hispanics. Obama is ahead among independent voters.

In
Missouri, Obama leads the Democratic race on the strength of big support in the
St. Louis region. Overall in the Democratic race here, it is just too close to
call.

New Jersey – Republicans

Republicans

2/2-4

2/1-2/3

1/31-2/2

McCain

53%

52%

54%

Romney

24%

26%

23%

Huckabee

5%

7%

7%

Paul

4%

4%

4%

Someone else

4%

3%

3%

Undecided

10%

9%

10%

McCain held steady in New Jersey
with 53% support, compared to Romneys 24%. Romney had dropped two points.
Huckabee, too, lost two points, to end the final day before the vote with just
5% support. McCain had 50% support from registered Republicans and 63% from independents.
Romney had 24% support from both those groups. Though 56% of voters under 30
preferred McCain, to Romneys zero support, 31% of those young voters remained
undecided. Older voters were more certain of their choices- only 9% were
undecided. Forty-seven percent liked McCain, compared to 30% for Romney. The
three-day tracking survey included 862 likely voters and carried a margin for
error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

New Jersey – Democrats

Democrats

2/2-4

2/1-3

1/31-2/2

Clinton

46%

43%

43%

Obama

41%

43%

42%

Gravel

<1%

1%

1%

Someone else

3%

3.4%

4%

Undecided

10%

10%

10%

Clintons lead over Obama in New
Jersey grew in the final day before the primary. The two frontrunners had been
tied at 43% the day before, but Clinton jumped to 46% support as Obama dropped
to 41% support Monday. The former First Lady was well ahead of Obama among
registered Democrats, with 48% to his 39% support. Obama, however, had a big
edge with independent voters, with 49% of their support to Clintons 39%. Voters
under 30 backed Obama overwhelmingly, 63% to Clintons 36%. Though 10% of New
Jersey voters were undecided, only 2% of the youngest voters were. Clinton
dominated with older voters, getting 60% of their support to Obamas 24%. The
three-day tracking survey included 872 likely voters and carried a margin of
error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

New York – Republicans

Republicans

2/3-4

2/1-2/3

1/31-2/2

McCain

56%

53%

49%

Romney

20%

19%

23%

Huckabee

7%

8%

8%

Paul

2%

5%

6%

Someone else

4%

5%

5%

Undecided

11%

10%

8%

McCain continued to build his lead
in New York on the eve of the primary, adding three points to his total support
to end up with 56% backing from the states republican voters. He made gains in
both New York City and the upstate region, going from 59% to 64% support in the
city and from 47% to 51% upstate. He
lost a point of support in the New York City suburbs, however, ending up with
61% support there. Second-place Romney trailed with 20% support in the state as
a whole, 21% upstate, 18% in the city and 19% in the suburbs. The two-day
tracking survey included 836 likely Republican voters and carried a margin of
error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Georgia – Democrats

Democrats

2/2-2/4

2/1-2/3

1/31-2/2

Obama

49%

48%

48%

Clinton

29%

31%

28%

Gravel

1%

2%

1%

Someone else

9%

10%

10%

Undecided

12%

11%

13%

Obamas strong lead over Clinton
broadened by three points in the final day before Super Tuesday. He ended
Monday with 49% support, up a point from the day before, compared to Clintons 29%
support, which was down two points from the previous day. Black voters, who
make up about half the sample, gave Obama 68% support, up a point from the day
before. Clinton, meanwhile, lost a point among African-American voters to end
at 17%. Obama even edged up a notch among women. He was already well ahead of
Clinton with Georgia women, and closed the tracking period with 48% of their
support. This three-day tracking survey included 865 likely voters and carried
a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Missouri – Republicans

Republicans

2/2-2/4

2/1-3

1/31-2/2

McCain

34%

35%

36%

Huckabee

27%

27%

27%

Romney

25%

24%

22%

Paul

4%

5%

4%

Someone else

2%

3%

2%

Undecided

7%

8%

9%

The GOP contest here is a tight
one, splitting three ways, as McCain enjoys big support among moderates and
even leads slightly among mainline conservatives. Huckabee leads Romney among
the very conservative. This three-day tracking survey included 860 likely
voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Missouri – Democrats

Democrats

2/2-2/4

2/1-2/3

1/31-2/2

Obama

45%

47%

43%

Clinton

42%

42%

44%

Gravel

<1%

<1%

1%

Someone else

3%

3%

3%

Undecided

9%

9%

10%

Obama holds a tiny edge here, as he leads by 10 points among men and trails Clinton by only two points. He leads big in the St. Louis area, which borders his home state of Illinois. This three-day tracking survey included 860 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

California – Republicans

Republicans

2/3-4

2/1-2/3

1/31-2-2

Romney

40%

40%

37%

McCain

33%

32%

34%

Huckabee

12%

12%

12%

Paul

3%

5%

5%

Someone else

4%

4%

5%

Undecided

8%

8%

7%

There was little movement in the
GOP race in California in the last 24 hours, as Romney held onto a lead at the
very edge of the margin of error. Romney retains an edge among both men and
women. He has had trouble holding support among men elsewhere. Among almost all
age groups, McCain and Romney were tied, except among those age 30 to 49, where
Romney enjoyed a big lead. Romney leads big among those who felt immigration
was the biggest issue in the campaign, while McCain led among those who thought
the economy or the Iraq war were most important. This two-day tracking survey
included 833 likely Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of
+/- 3.4 percentage points.

California – Democrats

Democrats

2/3-4

2/1-2/3

1/31-2/2

Obama

49%

46%

45%

Clinton

36%

40%

41%

Gravel

1%

<1%

<1%

Someone else

5%

5%

6%

Undecided

9%

9%

9%

Obama has built a sturdy
lead here, among both Democrats and independents. He leads Clinton big among
both men (55% to her 29%) and women (45% to her 42%). He leads among all age
groups except among those age 65 and older, where Clinton holds a slim edge. He
leads among both moderates and progressives, but those mainline liberal
Democrats still favor Clinton by a very narrow margin. This two-day tracking survey
included 895 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage
points.