We have quite a few people sitting on over 50K++ Bitcoins that could retire in the click of a button.

All the positivity and bullishness reminds me of the last crash at $32.

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen? I'm no bear...but I'm not delusional either.

A major correction has to happen...right?

Yeah I just don't know. I'm crazy skeptical and have been selling a little since we hit 100 but the way Bitcoin is built, EVENTUALLY it will have a major upward revaluation that will take it to 4 digits per coin or more.... And with how crazy things are in "normal" currencies a whole lot of people are waking up to Bitcoin, which is going to make the gains even more nuts.

So I don't know. Every instinct in my body tells me that markets don't go up and to the left indefinitely without major periodic corrections as people who bought in at higher numbers get scared and take profits, but if the momentum is nothing but up that instinct is going to be overridden. I hope we have a correction, not a crash - Spending some time between 80-100 before starting going up again would be much healthier than this nothing-but-all-time-gains nonsense. Makes me nervous.

This might be the correction, maybe people realize that Bitcoin is undervalued.

If you bought Bitcoins at $15, which a whole bunch of new people to bitcoin did, you sure felt like it crashed.

It's all well and good for members of the forum who bought in sub $1/btc but we need newbies to have a good experience, not have their investment sliced in half.

A couple of friends bought all the way up to $30 and I always told them to hold and stay calm. Maybe they felt like it crashed, but what do you think they feel now? I always said it'll go to $100+, that's why I haven't sold any around $30 and haven't sold any during that "crash", because I was pretty damn sure that $30 is not the end. Those who listened thank me now, those that didn't don't deserve better.

And for the newbies to have a good experience, we're talking about money here, not My Little Pony. Bitcoin (as an investment) is a high risk investment, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

For the user experience the price doesn't really matter, when you need to send $100 worth of bitcoins to someone, you just send $100 worth of bitcoins, makes no difference if that's 100BTC, or 0.000001BTC

We have quite a few people sitting on over 50K++ Bitcoins that could retire in the click of a button.

All the positivity and bullishness reminds me of the last crash at $32.

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen? I'm no bear...but I'm not delusional either.

A major correction has to happen...right?

One could think that in normal situations, HOWEVER, this ain't normal son. The price and adoption is going parabolic together. Each time a real company says "we are going to adopt/use bitcoin", the price is "reset", the then current price stands as the new "ground zero" and we go up from there. You cannot price bitcoin like any other traded asset because it is being traded in its infancy, which is an utterly unique situation. Couple all of this with the possibility of a mega player like Amazon or Google endorsing bitcoin and the price goes vertical for a month.

If there was anyone who could tell you, they'd be a millionaire wizard.

All we can do is watch, and plan for both the unknown hour when it shall arrive, and the possible - though unlikely - future where this is all solid and the crash never comes.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.

One could think that in normal situations, HOWEVER, this ain't normal son. The price and adoption is going parabolic together. Each time a real company says "we are going to adopt/use bitcoin", the price is "reset", the then current price stands as the new "ground zero" and we go up from there. You cannot price bitcoin like any other traded asset because it is being traded in its infancy, which is an utterly unique situation. Couple all of this with the possibility of a mega player like Amazon or Google endorsing bitcoin and the price goes vertical for a month.

We really don't know how much of the money pouring in is smart money vs dumb money (easily frightened and not-educated about bitcoin). If too much of this increase is due to dumb money, we could have a major downturn that shakes confidence.

This is my concern in a nutshell.

I trust Bitcoin. I don't trust people.

Well, point of "crash" is that bitcoins owned by dumb people (buy high, sell low) become bitcoins owned by smart people (buy low, sell high/hold)

If there was anyone who could tell you, they'd be a millionaire wizard.

All we can do is watch, and plan for both the unknown hour when it shall arrive, and the possible - though unlikely - future where this is all solid and the crash never comes.

SANITY ON MY FORUMS?!?!?

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamotohttp://haschinabannedbitcoin.com

Oh? What makes you so sure? I know it hasn't done much today. I say this as a person who would be very happy to buy in lower.

Sure? Not really. But just wait and see.

As to buying in lower, I think you'll have to wait half a year or a little longer. You can try to benefit from volatility, but it is difficult to make money in a falling market in which you cannot easily sell short or buy put options. That is a distortion that makes the bitcoin market slanted upwards. It helps creating bubbles, but makes it difficult to deflate them.

As to buying in lower, I think you'll have to wait half a year or a little longer. You can try to benefit from volatility, but it is difficult to make money in a falling market in which you cannot easily sell short or buy put options. That is a distortion that makes the bitcoin market slanted upwards. It helps creating bubbles, but makes it difficult to deflate them.

Reminder that Bitfinex has a lending market which currently has very reasonable APRs for BTC shorts (and they integrate with Gox for minimal slippage too).

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.

I would start to worry if the price stopped the rapid growth for now (corrections are normal)

Bitcoin is a very useful protocol (and proved to be working brilliantly so far). In my opinion the speed of growth matches the adoption rate of other significant technological products/advancements.

Some people look at this from a false perspective based on old, completely different experiences. They tend to lobby everywhere that it must be a bubble. As they are quite loud, I must say that they bring down the quality of most of the BTC forums.

In my opinion the price is not as significant as some people here try to describe. It's just expresses how big the BTC economy is relative to other currencies.

"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.George Soros

2 of my scenarios are:

1.) no fundamental flaw in the protocol = rapid growth, with many corrections.

I forgot to mention that the bitcoin market sometimes goes into a low-volume-wait mode. That can delay everything else by days. We are in that mode right now.

Let me make a more detailed prediction. The price will gently begin to sink. Over a couple of days the downward trend will accelerate until the first bull trap will appear with the price rising again. But it will not rise to the earlier high levels. After the over-eager bulls have jumped onto the bandwagon, the price will turn around once more and slide to even lower levels.

The price will essentially sink for about half a year with a few major intermediate ups and downs, then it will slowly begin to stabilize. I cannot say at which level it will do that, but a very rough guess would be $20. This depends on circumstances in the past that I do not know exactly and also on circumstances in the future, which nobody can know in advance.

I forgot to mention that the bitcoin market sometimes goes into a low-volume-wait mode. That can delay everything else by days. We are in that mode right now.

Let me make a more detailed prediction. The price will gently begin to sink. Over a couple of days the downward trend will accelerate until the first bull trap will appear with the price rising again. But it will not rise to the earlier high levels. After the over-eager bulls have jumped onto the bandwagon, the price will turn around once more and slide to even lower levels.

The price will essentially sink for about half a year with a few major intermediate ups and downs, then it will slowly begin to stabilize. I cannot say at which level it will do that, but a very rough guess would be $20. This depends on circumstances in the past that I do not know exactly and also on circumstances in the future, which nobody can know in advance.

There's no way we'll go below 50 again. There's way too many people waiting to buy cheap coins. If we ever get below 100 there will be a mad rush to start buying again.

I forgot to mention that the bitcoin market sometimes goes into a low-volume-wait mode. That can delay everything else by days. We are in that mode right now.

Let me make a more detailed prediction. The price will gently begin to sink. Over a couple of days the downward trend will accelerate until the first bull trap will appear with the price rising again. But it will not rise to the earlier high levels. After the over-eager bulls have jumped onto the bandwagon, the price will turn around once more and slide to even lower levels.

The price will essentially sink for about half a year with a few major intermediate ups and downs, then it will slowly begin to stabilize. I cannot say at which level it will do that, but a very rough guess would be $20. This depends on circumstances in the past that I do not know exactly and also on circumstances in the future, which nobody can know in advance.

There's no way we'll go below 50 again. There's way too many people waiting to buy cheap coins. If we ever get below 100 there will be a mad rush to start buying again.

If the crash happens at these levels 50 and below is a certainty. It would have to go up another 400% in order for that to be considered the floor.

It depends. Are the current buyers mere momentum investors chasing a rising price? Or are they people who understand the merits of BTC and expect that it could ultimately be a similar asset class as gold with a similar valuation (in which case each BTC would have to have a much larger valuation than at present)? If the former, yeah we could have a big crash. If the latter, then buyers are averaging in and willing to wait for the ultimate valuation to be reached. So I'm not really on the side of either naive bulls, nor of the cynical "BTC is a fad" haters. I tend to think more people are not mere momentum chasers because everyone can see the chart with the speculative blow off in 2011 and subsequent crash. I don't think it's a valueless fad, or it never would have bottomed out. It would have been a zero already.

I don't necessarily disagree that this isn't sustainable. I don't necessarily disagree that the rally could end at any moment.

But look at the predictions you've made recently. Look at how many times recently that you've said "the end is now", and meant it, and been wrong.

For your own sake, you need to wash your eyes. Figure out why you keep making the same prediction, and why it keeps coming out wrong. Watching you be reduced to this one-note chant of "crash tomorrow" makes me sad.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.

The current movements have little meaning, because there is hardly any volume behind them.

I would say that the market is in one of its bitcoin-typical low-volume-wait mode phases. They seem to happen when the "speculators" have no idea where the price should go. To me they are an indication that the market is not reality-driven. It is phantasy-driven. This may just be a different expression for bubble.

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

My personal guess is that the bubble will burst within days, but I have to admit that it is only a guess and that I cannot preclude that the price will go up to $200 first.

Let's just hope never But I wouldn't be surprised if we went down a little this month. It's seeming a little too good to be true, despite all the great supporting facts that this is just a correction :>

Many people seem to be really scared that the price will crash when early adopters star to dumb their Bitcoins. But what they don't understand is that soon there won't be any need to cash out. When price is 10k$/BTC you can just buy your mansion or yacht with Bitcoins directly.

The crash will come as soon as someone with 50,000 bit coins decides that its time to cash out and then buy it all back when the market starts recovering Pretty scary.

Thats the 1 scary thing about BTC i fear.But also pertty much the only negative thing I can think of

I agree, its the only negative I've found so far. Love everything else about it. I'm hoping with more volume it stabilizes and big sell offs are a thing of the past for it, but then again, we'd need to know who the single biggest holder of bitcoins is, as that person is to be feared! Anyone know who holds the biggest amount of bitcoins? The leading bitcoin farmer on BTC Guild?

Many people seem to be really scared that the price will crash when early adopters star to dumb their Bitcoins. But what they don't understand is that soon there won't be any need to cash out. When price is 10k$/BTC you can just buy your mansion or yacht with Bitcoins directly.

I'm not scared about the early adopters, i'm scared about hacker groups or just wealthy individuals that are currently playing the market. I have no doubts that the bicoin will appreciate in value in the long term, but if you are in it for the short term (3-6 months), then chances are you are gonna lose money. If you've been holding for a while, it's an easy hold right now.

I'd like to know if there is really someone who would possibly able to know when the market crashes.

I have pondered this until my brain almost exploded. My best result is that a rough guess is possible, but it is fundamentally impossible to predict with any precision when or at what price a bubble bursts. This is similar to volcano eruptions. Sometimes you get some advance warnings, but a precise prediction is still impossible.

Why is this so? Because a single big seller can burst the bubble by selling a large amount and perhaps another large amount just when the price attempts to recover. If there is no big sale, the bubble can inflate higher and higher.

A second effect is that buyers simply run out of money. If you look at the bitcoin price curve of the last few months, you see that we have super-exponential growth, which is impossible to sustain for long. Even exponential growth quickly becomes unsustainable.

And when you look at historic price bubbles, one conspicuous observation is that the peak is always pointed. You never see a rounded head or a "permanently high plateau". It does not necessarily have to be pointed when you look at it through a microscope, but for any normal observer a price bubble always has a pointed peak.

This seems to indicate to me that the bubble also bursts on its own when the accelerating price increase cannot be sustained any longer.

I believe that there are a few simple psychological phenomena at work in these bubbles. You know how the run-up feels—you could observe that here all the time. After the burst you get the effect that many late buyers panic and sell at a loss, relatively quickly driving down the price.

By the way, let me try to explain the stupidity of a price bubble in a different way. From the dollar point of view, bitcoin trading is a zero sum game—no dollars are created or destroyed. They only change hands. This means that necessarily there will be winners and losers. But against all rational sense almost everybody believes to be a winner. That is like asking people whether they believe to be above average car drivers; some 80% answer that they believe exactly that.

I admit I'm basing this on little more than gut feeling. But the Sunday hike did feel like a start of the last leg in the rally. It happened in anticipation of new money coming to exchanges on Tuesday. Bubbles tend to accelerate just before they burst, for obvious reasons (people are making the mistake of viewing past performance as a proof of the future).

We'll see in the next few days. Consolidation below $200 would be more bullish than a rally to $300, in my book.

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

My personal guess is that the bubble will burst within days, but I have to admit that it is only a guess and that I cannot preclude that the price will go up to $200 first.

In retrospect my "personal guess" was pretty good. The bubble did burst within three days. It actually did go up to $200 and beyond even within these few days, but fell back steeply, as expected.

It is good to check one's predictions later to hone the predictive skills, something every successful speculator probably does.

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

My personal guess is that the bubble will burst within days, but I have to admit that it is only a guess and that I cannot preclude that the price will go up to $200 first.

In retrospect my "personal guess" was pretty good. The bubble did burst within three days. It actually did go up to $200 and beyond even within these few days, but fell back steeply, as expected.

It is good to check one's predictions later to hone the predictive skills, something every successful speculator probably does.

currently rates are too much fluctuatingwhat you suggest personallyas i don't have inner knowledge of btcso i am not sure to hold btc or sell them?

Right now? Sell.

What we just saw and are still seeing is the second big bitcoin price bubble. It is now in the process of bursting, so we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months.[...]

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

If all my predictions were always perfectly correct, I would no longer be here.

But I stick to my earlier prediction that "we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months." I also predict that the price will go below $40.

Of course, that latter prediction can turn out to be wrong if something unforeseen happens, but I still consider it very likely that the price will go below $40 at some time later this year or next.

The big question in a price bubble is always when to sell or how long to ride the wave. The longer you hold on, the higher the profit, but the bigger the risk that the bubble bursts before you got out. During a bursting bubble you can usually not trade, because the exchanges stop working, so you can lose a lot.

Being conservative, I tend to sell early, more or less when I recognize that I'm in a bubble. But I'm working on it. Predicting bubbles may be one of the finer arts of speculation. It remains very imprecise though, because a few biggish sales can prick a bubble, and these cannot be predicted.

Bitcoin is clearly a better place to have your money than Liberty Reserve and at any given times there are probably billions sitting in LR. All that's needed is time to pass, so clearly Bitcoin is way undervalued.

Bitcoin is clearly a better place to have your money than Liberty Reserve and at any given times there are probably billions sitting in LR. All that's needed is time to pass, so clearly Bitcoin is way undervalued.

If nothing goes wrong with bitcoin, you may well be right in the long run.

But for the speculator the question is a different one: Where is the price going in the short term?

For the next months the answer is generally: down. The price will fluctuate up and down, but overall it will go down, perhaps to $20, perhaps lower.

Bitcoin is clearly a better place to have your money than Liberty Reserve and at any given times there are probably billions sitting in LR. All that's needed is time to pass, so clearly Bitcoin is way undervalued.

If nothing goes wrong with bitcoin, you may well be right in the long run.

But for the speculator the question is a different one: Where is the price going in the short term?

For the next months the answer is generally: down. The price will fluctuate up and down, but overall it will go down, perhaps to $20, perhaps lower.

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

Yup. Ironic how easy it always looks by hindsight.

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But I stick to my earlier prediction that "we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months." I also predict that the price will go below $40.

Of course, that latter prediction can turn out to be wrong if something unforeseen happens, but I still consider it very likely that the price will go below $40 at some time later this year or next.

Below $40 for a longer time feels quite unlikely. There are so many dollars lurking to get back in.

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The big question in a price bubble is always when to sell or how long to ride the wave. The longer you hold on, the higher the profit, but the bigger the risk that the bubble bursts before you got out. During a bursting bubble you can usually not trade, because the exchanges stop working, so you can lose a lot.

Being conservative, I tend to sell early, more or less when I recognize that I'm in a bubble. But I'm working on it. Predicting bubbles may be one of the finer arts of speculation. It remains very imprecise though, because a few biggish sales can prick a bubble, and these cannot be predicted.

I tend to not be able to sell in the bubble but then panic sell at the low point afterwards

Seriously, though, all we're seeing right now thus far seems to be a little holiday selloff. Switch off your bitcoinity ticker and move along, folks. Perhaps shovel whatever BTC you have straight into cold storage before you scratch the itch of temptation to gamble with them (gambling includes daytrading).

Why are you so sure of it going down? Media attention peaked but now a lot of whales know about Bitcoin. The whales take their time or just wait for an opportunity to enter.

Because there is still nothing behind bitcoin, except a few trading outfits. I don't see any fundamentals yet. Ask wordpress.com, namecheap.com and others how many bitcoins they have received. I guess very few. People are not using bitcoins yet. They are almost exclusively bought by people who want to get rich quick.

The "whales" are just more speculators. Currently the speculators are going out, not coming in. The bad ones, to be precise, because the good ones have been out for a while already. In other words, the crazy speculators are now giving up, after losing their shirts, and sell their bitcoins to the even crazier ones, eager to lose their shirts as well. This will not stop before at least a couple of months have passed.

It seems to take time for everyone to understand what a good speculator knew all along—that after a bursting bubble the price will not consistently rise again before it hits rock bottom, which can take anything between 5 months and 2 years in the bitcoin market.

The interesting question is: Where is rock bottom? My guess is $20, but I would not be surprised if I saw a single digit price.

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.

The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all. I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.

The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all. I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

Network effects! Remember Windows 3.1? Linux wiped the floor with it because it was technically lightyears ahead? Big players like Paypal are considering Bitcoin. Not LiteCoin, PPCoin, IxCoin, Namecoin or any of the other cheap knockoffs. Even if they have some parameter a tiny little bit more optimized.

I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

That may be impossible to predict. Usually the first comer garners a natural monopoly. That is why there is only one big eBay, only one big PayPal, only one big Facebook, only one big Google. Of course these don't stay natural monopolies forever, but usually they can cling to their position for many years.

That said, if a new digital currency comes along that has at least one clear and important advantage over bitcoin, then things may change.

There's already been a tonne of crashes, which have all led to the coin going back up. There's obviously sufficient people who have faith in Bitcoin to not let it fall. It's safe to say this our new price Well I feel this way at least.

There's already been a tonne of crashes, which have all led to the coin going back up. There's obviously sufficient people who have faith in Bitcoin to not let it fall. It's safe to say this our new price Well I feel this way at least.

If bitcoin does not fail and is not superseded, then you will be right in the long run. The typical speculator is looking at shorter-term price movements though, and here we have a high probability of the price generally moving downward during the months after a burst bubble, with interspersed bull traps.

I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

That may be impossible to predict. Usually the first comer garners a natural monopoly. That is why there is only one big eBay, only one big PayPal, only one big Facebook, only one big Google. Of course these don't stay natural monopolies forever, but usually they can cling to their position for many years.

That said, if a new digital currency comes along that has at least one clear and important advantage over bitcoin, then things may change.

MySpace preceded Facebook, and there were search engines before Google. I don't know about the other examples. It will be interesting to see what happens once Litecoin trades on MtGox. Although I don't believe Litecoin stands a chance, it may still decrease faith in Bitcoin. For a real contender, if it works as advertised, look at Ripple.

About 1000 I think, which is worth pretty much nothing. I sold nearly all I got in their forum handout. Ripple prices have been hugely inflated since its inception because they haven't distributed any meaningful sum yet. There are 100 billion ripples, and its last price is 8800 per BTC. Wish I could short this thing.

My point was only that it appears to be a good system if it works under stress. There's no mining and transactions are instantaneous. If there is anything to compete meaningfully, I don't think it will be Litecoins and xyzcoin but Ripples because it's a completely different system.

One thing i noticed about ripples is that they don't rise and fall with Bitcoin like the other alt coins.

cuz they are not mined and are not traded by miners for BTC, same with NXT

Ripple and NXT are digital currency but a completely different business model. Original investors own all the coins and trickle them into the market to pump the price up before they sell to pay for their initial investment and a few extra million.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society