Thursday, April 28, 2016

4500 ISIS Militants Now in Central Asia, Russia’s GRU Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, April 28 – General Sergey
Afanasyev, deputy chief of the GRU, the Russian military’s intelligence service,
says that approximately 4500 people in Central Asia have sworn allegiance to the
Islamic State and that they constitute a problem for the countries of the
region and ultimately for Russia as well.

Kurtov expressed a certain
skepticism about the number Afanasyev reported.“It is in general strange,” the RISI editor said, “to think about where
this number came from because now GRU officers can collect information only in
Syria and Iraq but not in Central Asia.” Moreover, it is necessary to make distinctions
between loyalists and activists.

That there are ISIS loyalists and
activists in Central Asia is beyond question, he continued. “More than that,
according to certain parameters, the situation in Central Asia is very similar
to the one which preceded the appearance of ISIS in the Middle East” – poverty,
brittle authoritarianism, and explosive demographic trends.

At the same time, Kurtov argued,
there is no chance at present that ISIS could expand into Central Asia as it
has in Syria.That would require the
further destabilization of the states involved and the influx of more radicals
from Afghanistan, many of whom are Islamists but not followers of ISIS.

In his view, even though the borders
between Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, on the one hand, and
Afghanistan, on the other, are relatively poorly defended, the armies of at
least the last two of these states are strong enough to counter any visible threat,
especially given that it is likely to remain divided and fragmentary.

Kurtov concludes by noting that for
the time being, the ISIS radicals and the Taliban are fighting one another even
more than they are working to extend Islamic influence.“Certain Russian diplomats have even proposed
cooperating with the Taliban in the struggle with the Islamic State because it
is the lesser of two evils.”