As a news reporter I have covered some of everything since 1988, from my alma mater U.C. Berkeley to the Great Hall of the People in Beijing where I followed Communist officials for the Japanese news agency Kyodo. Stationed in Taipei since 2006, I track Taiwanese companies and local economic trends that resonate offshore. At Reuters through 2010, I looked intensely at the island’s awkward relations with China. More recently, I’ve studied high-tech trends in greater China expanded my overall news coverage to surrounding Asia.

Hot, Cold Scenarios For High-Level China Visit To Taiwan

Beijing’s official in charge of Taiwan policy will make his first visit this week to the island that his government hopes to capture someday. Zhang Zhijun is scheduled to reach Kaohsiung, a southern city where people generally dislike China, and other parts of self-ruled Taiwan to get a feel for the place, from its chief opposition party to mountain-dwelling aborigines. His Communist bosses intend to unify eventually with Taiwan despite a new wave of anti-Beijing sentiment that surged earlier this year when protesters occupied parliament in Taipei. China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since the 1940s. Related military threats softened in 2008 when China began signing trade, transit and investment deals with a suddenly receptive Taipei to wow the island with the spoils of its $10 trillion economy.

Whether Zhang takes good news back to China after the three-city, one-county visit June 25-28 comes down to one of two scenarios:

Parade to support Taiwan independence (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Scenario One

The head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office will meet a wall of anti-China protesters and not much will get done. When China’s chief Taiwan negotiator Chen Yunlin came in 2008, Taiwanese people tried to block him from leaving meeting venues and threw objects at his car. More demonstrators pushed China’s visiting No. 2 negotiator to the ground at a temple in 2008. This week’s guest, if heavily protested, would see his Taiwan government counterpart Wang Yu-chi and others as scheduled. But Taiwanese officials worried about snubbing protesters would hold off announcing any progress with Zhang on trade deals, first-ever consular offices or a widely forecast historic meeting between the two presidents, Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou. Zhang would go home to a frustrated Beijing, which hopes economic largesse and peaceful exchanges will be enough to unify the two sides.

This scenario is unlikely. A few hundred demonstrators may turn out overall, but the island’s chief opposition party, which doesn’t like China and can marshal more than 100,000 when it wants to, won’t oppose the visitor as he comes with humble intentions. “He wants to hear the true view of the Taiwanese people,” says opposition Democratic ProgressiveProgressive Party Secretary-General Joseph Wu, noting Zhang’s proposed chats with youth and low-income groups. “We certainly hope he can get the true view of Taiwan and carry that back to China.”

Scenario Two

The Chinese official will cut the impact of any protests by listening to them rather than responding. Then he will move to divide the opposition party and start talking substance with his Taiwan government counterpart. He will take notes on whatever he’s told by the local officials, aborigines and low-income people who he’s due to meet. “If Zhang’s visit resulted in him making statements to the effect that he now better understands Taiwan, that would be positive,” says Denny Roy, senior fellow with the East-West Center. Then he would talk to the Taiwan official privately about setting up consular-style representative offices or even arranging a face-to-face between the two presidents. The visitor met his local equivalent for the first time in February, in China, so this encounter can shift from formality to substance. Any substance would cement Taiwan-China trade and investment ties, laying the next step in Beijing’s plan for political unification. Zhang’s scheduled meeting with the Democratic Progressive Party’s Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Ju will also help build up the faction of Taiwan’s opposition that wants cautious engagement with China and isolate the one hoping to consecrate self-rule by declaring independence from China, a precursor to war. China may need to work with that party after the presidential race in 2016.

This scenario is more likely. “It seems that the Chinese Communist Party has become much more confident in wooing or buying Taiwan back,” says Leonard Chu, China studies professor retired from National Chengchi University in Taipei. “Zhang will of course be cautious in his remarks. At most he can be vague. One thing seems sure: A (protest) turnout would not be as big or hot-tempered or violent as when Chen Yunlin visited Taiwan several years ago.”

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This is a just too complicated political issue. Whenever a new leadership take power in China, there will be some new policy toward Taiwan. From Jiang to Hua , now to Xi, they all have different gestures, but the goal remains the same: unite Taiwan peacefully. Under no circumstance, will there be a war between two sides. Brothers don’t kill brothers. That is the exact word Jiang said. I fully agree with his idea. There two sides went through many ups and downs. From hostile to each other to friendly with each other. They didn’t talk with each other 20 years ago. They all went to a 3rd country for a meeting, normally Singapore which was neutral to both sides at that , moment. There was no direct talk, no direct commute. Thanks to many Taiwanese who went to Mainland to do business. At that time, labor in China was very cheap and the market just took off. Many of the business people made good profits there. Because of the good beginnings, more and more investments went into China and the trade between 2 sides grew exponentially. When people began to talk with each other, they began to understand with each other better. Some girls were married with the men from Taiwan and vice verse. Then people began to like each other. The tension was also reduced. There are three direct links between two sides. Many people travelled to Taiwan for vacation. This is good for both sides. It is good for Taiwan economy, also benefits the wealthy Chinese. Basically there is one more destiny for them to visit. Now at this level, senior politicians can visit each other. Some very high levels politicians visited both sides. Only Ma and Xi haven’t visit with each other yet. But there is a rumor that Ma might visit China while still in office. Of course he needs to calculate the political effects of this activity. IF it can cause a big loss in the upcoming election, he might delay the official visit. But Xi doesn’t face this issue. Then he just needs an official invitation from Ma. This is again a political issue. I believer Xi wants to visit the island as the highest leader. He had very good experience with Taiwan compatriots and did many good things for Taiwan. He will be certainly welcomed by the Taiwanese. It might not be the best time yet. It will come true eventually. Then everyone asks the same question: when will Taiwan be united with Mainland? No one could answer the question. There are two many factors for this. When and how to unite with Motherland is a billion dollars question. As a Chinese, we all hope the two sides could unite peacefully. This is the destiny of both sides’ people. For China, it want the unification tomorrow. For Taiwan, there might be a delay. Taiwan also knows it eventually comes to China. For this sort of h=thing, the earlier, the better. There is no need to delay since we all know there is just a matter of time. One country is much better than two separate countries. We are all aware of this. Two side can compliment with each other. China will help Taiwan tremendously as long as it comes back. China has helped Hong Kong so much. I prey this will be realized in y lifetime. This has been dragging for a while.

Taiwanese people don’t want to live under another government, especially a nondemocratic one. They also consider themselves better than mainland Chinese. “We’re so friendly,” people here say without thinking. “Compare us to mainland China and Hong Kong.” Whether or not that’s true, Taiwanese because of this self-perception don’t want to be ruled by or with mainland China. Some Taiwanese even reject that they’re influenced by Chinese culture. That’s not true, but again the idea affects how people see any union with mainland China.