5 Ways the New Congress Changes the Future of War

What with all the Washington pundits swashbuckling before Tuesday's election about why President Obama should and shouldn't rush back to the battlefront, you'd think national security might have been a bigger campaign issue. There is that little matter of the economy, of course, but then there's that wrinkle called the Tea Party — and the Republican instinct to placate the underlying political anger by way of conspiratorial notions concerning war and peace. Well, we're not quite back to Bush/Cheney territory, but a conservative majority means a lot for America's global outlook. (And that doesn't mean the left leans left, Bill Kristol.) Assuming our old new enemies in Yemen don't hit the terror jackpot any time soon, here are the issues to track after the stunning repudiation of our Nobel Peace Prize-winning president by the American voter. We're not even going to get started on Don't Ask Don't Tell....

1. We won't leave Afghanistan on time.

The Tea Partiers want out, essentially, and that ought to dovetail nicely with Obama's instinct to bag the whole complexity of nation building in a country where the government hates us anyway. But the John Boehner-led House is unlikely to go along, and not just because he'll be busy tearing down two years' worth of legislation. Russ Feingold is out on the Foreign Relations Committee and hawkish Buck McKeon is in, and that lets the new GOP majority create a different kind of horse race in holding up a pullout plan: Get ready for Afghanistan to look like a choice between the ambitious General David Petraeus as "the man on a white horse" and "the just-denounced president."

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2. We won't save money on defense spending.

No matter what you heard on the trail, there really isn't as much fat in the Defense budget as everyone imagines. Which is too bad. Besides the operational costs of the surge in Afghanistan and the wind-down in Iraq, what drives most spending pressure nowadays are routine medical costs, which neither party in Congress has shown any willingness to trim before. The drive for efficiency spearheaded by Secretary Gates could save $100 billion and buy some time, but not much. Big weapon-system buys are already down, with our defense companies feeling the pinch, so the only way the GOP can show itself "tough" on defense is simple: encourage even more overseas arms sales, which are booming right now. It's a good time to be America's friend — and an even better time to be worried about missiles from Iran or China.

3. We will continue to love and mostly hate China.

Its recent military shenanigans over in the South China Sea notwithstanding (are we to be reduced to defending every Japanese and Vietnamese fishing trawler?), China is going to remain foreign enemy No. 1 in the eyes of an angry new Congress, but for a new type of war: currency war. The Chinese "manipulation" of international money is one thing, but do expect a GOP Congress to give a warm welcome to the Pentagon's new AirSea Battle Concept. Of course, blaming our current fiscal state on China (see the now infamous "Chinese professor" ad) is good politics, so with Beijing's foot-dragging on nuclear programs in North Korea and Iran, the People's Liberation Army invariably re-emerges as the Great Yellow Hope for GOP hardliners and defense contractors alike. The "persistent struggle against violent extremists" is such a bummer — and a mouthful — by comparison.

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4. We will keep fighting the drone wars...

The evolution of the old Global War on Terror continues, meaning fewer regimes toppled and more bad actors regularly "pre-empted" — as in, assassinated, and preferably in their caves. So expect no GOP resistance to Obama's aggressive use of UAVs in northwestern Pakistan. And expect the trigger-happy gang at the CIA to enjoy running the trigger pullers from Special Ops. Next up? Yemen.

5. ...but not the drug war.

It says a lot that so few stoners came out to vote for California's Proposition 19. It says a lot more that the Tea Party doesn't really care about marijuana legislation one way or the other. So while conservative types like to look tough on immigration, don't be surprised if they quietly succumb to the growing public pressure from many of the same border states to decriminalize individual drug use as a way of winding down the war that's equally unpopular — and far bloodier, for Mexico at least. The Mexicans are going to have enough trouble with this Congress — and re-elected Arizona governor Jan Brewer! — as it is.

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