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Finance Minister P Chidambaram could defy history if he presents a largely austere 2013/14 budget on February 28, ahead of general elections next year.

A Standard Chartered analysis shows that since the 1990s, spending invariably rises in the two years leading up to a general election.

For example, the government during 1991-96 cut average real expenditure by an annualised 4 per cent in the first two years of its term, but raised it by 3.6 per cent in the final three years, Stanchart says.

The trajectory was similar for the governments in power from 1999-2004 (2.8 per cent versus 9.0 per cent) and 2004-09 (-1.9 per cent versus 14 per cent), the lender says.

The biggest welfare move expected in the current budget is the food security bill, which will likely raise annual food subsidies to 1.12 trillion from Rs 75000 crore now, almost a 50 per cent hike, Stanchart predicts, quoting government estimates.

The growth in 2012-13 is expected to fall to a decade low level of 5 per cent against 6.2 per cent in 2011-12.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram is scheduled to unveil budget proposals for 2013-14 on February 28 which among other things would seek to arrest industrial growth and boost economy.

President Pranab Mukherjee on his maiden address to the Parliament said, "The government has announced a roadmap for fiscal consolidation and would contain the fiscal deficit at 5.3 per cent of the GDP in the current financial year."

Chidambaram had already indicated that he would endeavour to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of the GDP In 2013-14.