Latino tide rising in Texas

Updated 1:11 am, Thursday, November 8, 2012

That image arrives courtesy of Cal Jillson, a professor of political science and expert in demographics. The tide is Latino voters, the seawall a bastion for Republicans.

Nationally, that bastion has been breached.

In the wake of Mitt Romney's defeat, a national angst has seized the GOP: Should it stick to the tea party's guns, with its intransigence against immigrants? Or should the party, wounded badly on Tuesday, acknowledge a demographic tide rising against it, including growing numbers of Latinos who turned out to vote overwhelmingly for President Barack Obama?

Most Popular

Texas, of course, is a different universe. The tea party here has virtually merged with the Republican Party.

Consider Donna Campbell, a tea party upstart who defeated longtime state Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, in the primary. On Tuesday, she secured her seat in the Senate, which Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has announced will prove more conservative in the looming session.

Consider also Ted Cruz, a tea party star who fatally branded Dewhurst a “moderate” in the primary. On Tuesday, he won his bid to become U.S. senator.

Cruz's victory advances the Republican streak in Texas — no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994 — and would seem to herald, along with Campbell's ascension, a bright future for far-right candidates. Indeed, Texas Republicans seem immune to the identity crisis rending the GOP on a national level.

A crisis looms nonetheless, Jillson says.

“The (Texas) Republican Party is standing on the seawall like a blind man,” he says. “The tide is rising, but they don't see it and they're not reacting to it. But pretty soon, it's going to be lapping at their ankles, and it may be too late.”

Consider some numbers:

Anglos make up 48 percent of the state's population, cast 68 percent of the votes in statewide elections and go 70 percent Republican. One problem: Over the next three decades, there is no predicted growth in the percentage of the Anglo population, according to the Texas state demographer.

In the same timeframe, the Latino population is projected to grow at 27 percent per decade, representing 53 percent of Texans by 2040.

Jillson predicts a political sea change well before that.

“If Republicans continue to focus on the tea party wing of their base, they will be in good shape for a decade (but) in real trouble beyond that,” he said.

After that decade, the GOP would need nearly 40 percent of the Latino vote to continue to dominate. Leaders such as Cruz, despite his ethnicity, could undermine that goal.

The son of Cuban immigrants, Cruz nonetheless opposes any citizenship plan for undocumented immigrants and has called for building a wall along the Texas-Mexico border. For most Latinos, such stances are jarring.

Texas Republicans could choose to embrace the tide. Many Latinos, after all, share conservative views.

“There's certainly social conservatism (among Latinos), meaning anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage,” Jillson said. “It's a moderate fiscal conservatism based on, ‘My family has to live within its budget.' But they also say, ‘I've got to have high-quality schools for my kids, and I've got to have access to health care.'

“Republicans say, ‘Well, we can't help you there.' Democrats say, ‘We can help you there.'”