Coupled Global Climate Model 3

These animations show the 5-member ensemble mean change (relative
to the average of 1981-2000) in the 5-year running mean surface air
temperature simulated in the IPCC SRES A1B experiment with CGCM3. The details of the forcing can
be found in the CGCM3
forcing section.

Note that there is more warming over land and polar regions than
over the oceans. The rapidly varying jumpy features of the animation
are caused by natural variations (year-to-year changes in weather
patterns) that are simulated by the climate model. Natural variation
is also the cause of the differences between the three
simulations. These variations which are also part of the observed
climate system, make it difficult to project possible future climate
change in detail.

Data from these and other simulations are available for
downloading from our data section.