Entries in precursor awards
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The BAFTA nominations are out and though we've begun to lose interest in precursors -- 7 days until Oscar nominations are announced -- we should list them anyway! Precursors has two meanings for me. There's the calendar meaning which merely includes all awards that precede the Oscars. But there's a second meaning which is the awards that primarily exist to do just that, precede and thus predict the Oscar. We tend to never lose interest in the precursors that have their own personalities and quickly move on from the others.

BAFTA'S BEST PICTURE. Can you imagine how exciting this year would be if there were only five Oscar nominees again. What the hell would be nominated?

BAFTA's final shortlist is different enough than what we expect Oscar's to look like (Drive and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy both have devout fans but haven't captured that much awards heat in Hollywood) that we are forced into being slightly more interested than usual!

Is Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, which has won some notice from the guilds and a fair amount of interest at the box office gaining ground towards major Oscar nominations next Tuesday or not? It's one of the big question marks right there along with is the abundant Dragon Tattoo guild love a case of perfect timing or 'crossover appeal and you'll see it at Oscar, too!'

Given that there is no Oscar equivalent of this category and few clues in their nominations as to which of these they loved, we're interested to see who wins this one. I suspect it will be Tyrannosaur but I'll admit I'm personally rooting for Attack the Block. I'm not as crazy for it as Michael is but I do appreciate its energy and no budget invention.

One of my very favorite things about the Golden Globes is the scan of the crowd whenever they're cutting to commercial or returning. You feel like you're in the room, mingling. Or, rather, gawking. You catch little glimpses of conversations ("they know each other?!?"), unofficial screen reunions (Colin & Julianne!), and you end up pondering the sometimes amusing seating arrangements. For instance, Madonna and Meryl Streep, once vocal rivals over Evita (1996), were separated only by Meryl's dutiful husband Don Gummer who never seems to enjoy these things. At one commercial break Madonna was seen gabbing away. He said not a word.

Here are some of my favorites shots from the evening.

Zooey Deschanel has her thumbs up for Ryan Kwanten. Whatever for? Care to make a guess? I immediately made a false memory that she had actually played Lizzy Caplan's role on True Blood. If you squint they do look kind of alike and imagine what Zooey could do on V.

Laura Linney has either been demoted to the TV section, that outer elevated rim, or she was running about visiting. But she and Charlize obviously like each other. There will be enthusiastic hugging and kissing.

Viola was extremely eager to get her Moet refilled (wouldn't you be?). Octavia is probably looking off into the distance but it's fun to think that's she's all "slow down girl! You haven't won yet!"

It's Andie Macdowell's daughter Rainey Qualley. She totally did a great job, directing traffic with those arms like she was born to work on a tarmac guiding 747s to their gates. I mean this in the nicest possible way because some Miss Double Gs totally shirk their navigational responsibilities. She was just not having people stand in the wrong spot.

2. Uggie is Made of Ham

Not only was he pulling focus during the Best Picture speech, he was also working the red carpet, with or without Penelope Ann Miller as Vanna White. I hope he's being compensated well.

I normally look forward to Golden Globe night with the feverish pitch I otherwise save for Oscar Nomination Morning and Oscar Night itself. They're the holy trinity of awards season Father (Oscar Noms), Son (Oscar Night) and uh... Holy Ghost (The Globes). Well, there are spirits involved. I expect that the drunkest table will belong to The Help or Bridesmaids. Here's to inebriated ladies!

And here are my predictions. I'm just going for it and predicting a return to... January 2003. Wait, what? Read on!

MOVIES

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

The Ides of March

Moneyball

War Horse

With most of the attention swinging towards The Artist, Best Picture Drama feels like a free for all this year. Three films (The Descendants, Hugo and The Help) look like feasible winners since they've retained heat after the nominations. Common wisdom points to the inexplicable near-universal love for The Descendants but for whatever reason I'm imagining a repeat of the 2002/2003 Globes season wherein the throbbing heart of a female epic (The Hours) beat out an expensive Scorsese film and the Alexander Payne film about the widower dealing with his angry daughter whilst having spiritual awakenings. (Gangs of New York and About Schmidt)Prediction: The HelpSpoiler: The Descendants

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY or MUSICAL

50/50

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

My Week With Marilyn

This one seems all sewn up for The Artist but I think it's worth noting that the Comedy or Musical category tends to be where the Golden Globes house their biggest surprises on average. That said a defeat for the Artist would be the kind of shocker that only happens once a decade. Prediction: The ArtistSpoiler: Bridesmaids (imagine the uproar!)

BEST DIRECTOR

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

George Clooney, The Ides of March

Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Hazanavicius may or may not be the frontrunner for the Oscar. It's tough to say with lesser known directors when they're battling cinematic giants who win awards based on their whole filmography rather than the specific film they're up for. But I'm guessing that the presence of Woody Allen pulls enough votes from Martin Scorsese to keep Hazanavicius in the lead.Prediction: HazanaviciusSpoiler: Scorsese

Do you think all five of the major acting wins will translate to Globe and SAG hoopla... and then on to Oscar? It's been a surprising season to date so will it suddenly become a normal season where the same films and performances win each time?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS -Octavia Spencer for The Help

Okay um. Well I'm not prepared. I wasn't a Girl Scout. I guess the operative word here is Best Supporting becasue I was truly supported by the most amazing cast and crew. Oh my god this is really kind of crazy. Okay. Uh. I'd like to thank everyone at Dreamworks -- Stacey Snyder thank you for giving me this chance. Holly Barrio. Chip Sullivan. Everyone at Disney. Rich [series of names that all blurred together for us] ...and then of course my two champions Tate Taylor and Brunson Green who have always believed in me. And thank God you believed in me enough to give me a job that actually paid this time!

But thank you so much to the BFCA. I am truly truly humbled by this. Thank you.

The cinematography guild has spoken and, like the Art Directors, Directors, Producers and Writers they're totally packing off for a vacay in the snowy murderous isles of Sweden with The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. What the hell is going on over there in Hollywood?* There was once a time, believe it or not, when instant remakes of foreign films were looked on suspiciously (from an artistic standpoint, not a financial one). Even The Departed which won rave reviews and eventually the Best Picture had some early doubters due to its remake nature. And Dragon Tattoo doesn't have those "masterpiece!" reviews. That said Jeff Cronenwerth is an amazing DP and like all of Fincher's films this one is beautifully put together. (We just wish he'd chosen material more worthy of his immense gift is all.)

I've given up hoping for Emmanuel Lubezki (100% certified genius) to ever win the Oscar and I suspect this year he'll lose again especially because The Tree of Life doesn't seem to have much AMPAS support. I expect the Oscar will go to either Schiffman or Richardson. The whole of the Academy votes on the winners and they often vote on their favorite film as opposed to how it's shot and lit.

* My three theoriesa) Everyone is waking up and going "D'oh!" about The Social Network losing last year. Sorry Fincher!b) Everyone loves violence against women (sadly this is obvious in pop culture) especially when its got the sheep's clothing of a sort of feminist icon wrapped around it.c) Hollywood just really likes the movie and its freshest in the memory.