Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time

Thursday, January 03, 2013

Guesstimates on January 3, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures:
Today's
day session range estimate is 1448-1462. The market has turned up strongly on
the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 and a
conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.

QQQ:The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note
yield):
Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger
economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed
are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at
1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull
market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.

February Crude: I think this market is headed for 70 and
lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.

February Gold: A repetition of the size of the last rally
would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the
longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in
silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to
33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has
turned upward.

Google: There are several old
tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800
and higher.

Apple:Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little
below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full
session below that level but ifit does
support is at 480.

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About Me

I write three financial blogs. The first is Carl Futia.On this blog I post daily "guestimates" of the current trends and trend potential in important markets. Once a week I post an explanation of my views on one of these markets with illustrative charts.
My second blog, Carl Futia Real Time, is subscription based. It is a real time trading seminar in which members receive my real time analysis of the E-mini S&P futures and can watch me trade them. In this seminar I explain how I calculate support and resistance levels and how I recognize market "rejections" of support or resistance which then determine the current trend directions.
My third blog is called The Art of Contrarian Trading and is based on my book of the same title. On that blog I focus less on day-to-day market details and more on swings in investor sentiment, the "information cascades" which I talk about in my book.