Questions surround top QB prospects

CHIP SCOGGINSStar Tribune (Minneapolis)

Published Monday, April 20, 2009

A year ago, two quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Both subsequently tore through the learning curve, led their respective teams to the playoffs and shared various rookie of the year honors.

In one season Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco established themselves as franchise quarterbacks and showed that rookie quarterbacks can provide immediate dividends. But that doesn't guarantee this year's crop of quarterbacks will find a modicum of that success.

Georgia's Matthew Stafford is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Detroit Lions on Saturday. Southern California's Mark Sanchez and Kansas State's Josh Freeman are likely to go in the first round. It's a long drop after those three.

But questions surround all three quarterbacks, namely their experience and readiness for the NFL. It's perhaps unwise to think any of them will duplicate the success of Ryan and Flacco.

"It definitely gives you confidence as a quarterback coming out in this class that you can make an impact early," said Stafford, who left with one season of college eligibility remaining. "But as far as whether I was going to come out as a junior, that didn't make a difference to me whether they did so well, which they did, or not."

Stafford, the top quarterback prospect, has all the physical tools, starting with his rocket right arm. But scouts question his decision-making and consistency, concerns that could have been allayed with one more season at Georgia.

"If Matthew Stafford would have played his senior year then there would be no concerns," ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. said. "I think he would have lit it up. Had he stayed another year, he would have been off the charts.

"You have to coach him and treat him like he's a senior in college. If you draft him, the first year, if you want to get him later in the season, don't expect a lot."

If you think he needs to play through his mistakes, fine, but you have to coach him."

Sanchez and Freeman bring even more uncertainty. Sanchez played in a pro-style offense in one of college football's elite programs. But even his coach, Pete Carroll, was critical of his decision to enter the draft after only one season as the starter. Freeman has good size (6-6, 248 pounds) and athletic ability and improved his stock with impressive predraft workouts. But he's still raw and might need several years of grooming before he's ready to start.

"Those are the three that people are talking about as potential franchise-type quarterbacks," Vikings vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman said recently on KFAN radio. "But also first-round quarterbacks can be the biggest busts as well. That's the hardest position that you take a chance on, especially in the top 10."

Spielman said physical skills are obvious by watching film or live workouts. Everyone knows that Stafford has a strong arm -- Kiper described it as "rare" -- and that Freeman is a terrific athlete. But the mental piece to the puzzle is always the toughest to evaluate.

That task becomes even more difficult when quarterbacks leave school early because they have a shorter resume. Stafford counters that argument by noting that he played in 39 games at Georgia.

"That's a lot of football games, probably more than some seniors have played in," he said. "I've been doing this for a while. Obviously I have a lot to learn. It's a whole different ballgame in the NFL. But I understand what it takes to prepare and get ready to play early."

The experience factor makes Sanchez an even bigger risk, which is something he's tried to assuage since declaring for the draft.

"I think the best way to answer that is talk about the kind of experience I've had, against the top players around, most of them in the NFL, since my freshman year," he said. "So I think the experience I've had has been very valuable. And the type of atmosphere I've played in. I've been in a big city, a large media market. We've played in the Rose Bowl, in nationally televised games, and I'm ready for this league."

Time will tell, but NFL teams are so desperate to find franchise quarterbacks that they can't afford to pass on the potential of drafting one in the first round, despite questions about their readiness.

"They don't treat quarterbacks like they did back in the 1980s where you have three to four years to develop them," Kiper said. "They want them to play right away. In Matthew Stafford's case that's not realistic. In Mark Sanchez's case it's not realistic."

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