Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Sept 15 - Low volume melt up - short set up SPY/ QQQ

Thing are melting up into FOMC and we are getting a pretty good setup lining up for a short. The hourly and daily stochs are setting up to be both overbought at the same time which combined with the post Sept OPEX weakness could make a great short opportunity. Have been flat for a while and will wait until tomorrow/ Thurs to take on potential shorts when the indicators really get maxed out.

Ideally SPY would hit 199 on low volume.

Looking for stochs to top out.

VIX is slowly drifting down but still above 20 which could set up a big move up.

Yeh I don't plan on getting crazy prior to the FOMC. To be honest, I would prefer that there wasn't a meeting this Thurs at all so that we don't get all this noise. Post Sept OPEX is traditionally very weak (I will post more later) and we are very overbought so a pretty good combo to go short into next week which I would be happy with by itself. Short targets... I only have a general retest of lows in SPY but the first thing I will look for will be oversold conditions on the hourly time frame and a drop off in volume from the previous day. If we sell off, there will probably be some massive short squeezes so once some of these conditions trigger I will be looking to lighten up. Hope that helps

Thanks for the response. I was thinking maybe you're making a big call on the bull being over. But, you're looking to be opportunistic. I'll be reading your posts with great regularity, so thanks for your sharing.

Yes def looking more opportunistically as I usually swing trade. That said, if we don't move to new highs by end of year, I would guess a bear market is here. One thing to watch is whether we see a big drop off in margin debt by traders/ investors. That usually predates long term downturns.

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