Thoughts on Life, Love, Politics, Hypocrisy and Coming Out in Mid-Life

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Reflections on Virginia's 2017 Primary

As I have noted in blog posts and my May, 2017, VEER column, the husband and I strongly backed Ralph Northam for the Democrat gubernatorial nomination. Despite his endorsement by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren - who, in my view, should have kept their seemingly uninformed noses out of Virginia's business - and his recent campaign ads, Perriello's history largely did not match up with his newly claimed positions. Among other things, he opposed a ban on assault weapons, he voted to cut funding for women's reproductive care and supported offshore drilling off Virginia's coast, something that would have threatened both Virginia's tourism trade and its seafood industry. Not exactly progressive stances. Northam's approach on these issues have been the opposite of faux progressive, Perriello. Similarly, Northam embraced the LGBT community, while Perriello has been largely invisible other than attending the Equality Virginia Commonwealth Dinner in April. Again, not a progressive approach.

With Ralph Northam's win against Perriello yesterday, Virginia Democrats now have a candidate with a progressive track record who has the demeanor and resume to attract moderates and even liberal Republicans (to the extent any exist) in the general election in November. For Perriello supporters, progressive ideology is fine and good (I agree with most of it), but if your candidate cannot win in the general election, then you have yielded the field to the Republicans who will push an agenda diametrically opposed to progressive values. I truly wish that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren had minded their own business and not help caused a waste of resources better directed against Republicans.

Most remarkable of the vote yesterday was right wing extremist Corey Stewart's near win over Ed Gillespie (the results are within or close to the recount margin). Frank Wagner, perhaps the most sane of the three GOP candidates came in a distant third. Stewart's campaign focused on everything that Donald Trump has championed and which decent, moral people find abhorrent: religious extremism, unlimited gun rights, propping up the moribund coal industry, and personhood status for fetuses, thus banning most forms of contraception. And then there is Stewart's support for the Confederate flag and monuments to Confederate generals and officals on public property. LGBT rights are not specifically mentioned by Stewart, but given his self-prostitution to Christofascists on other issues, Stewart would be a nightmare for LGBT Virginians.

Assuming Gillespie wins, it will be a disappointment for those who would have loved to see Ralph Northam run against an extremist like Stewart. That said, Gillespie may be pressured to embrace some of Stewart's more extreme positions to encourage the GOP base to turn out in November. If that happens, it can only help Ralph Northam.

Ralph
Northam, the candidate endorsed by powerful Virginia Democrats, prevailed on
Tuesday in the state’s Democratic primary election. Decision Desk HQ called the
race just prior to 8 p.m. ET and The Associated Press called it soon after.

The Republican primary remains
undecided and locked in a tight race between Ed Gillespie, who had been
considered a heavy favorite to win, and controversial conservative challenger
Corey Stewart. Political observers had not expected that the GOP race would
become so closely contested as votes rolled in. Gillespie, a former Republican
National Committee chairman, has led nearly all public polling in the race,
while Stewart has trailed behind.

Turnout among Democrats
suggested an uptick in enthusiasm. According toPolitico’s Gabriel
Debenedetti, Northam has an estimated [303,429,435] votes, while Gillespie
and Stewart combined have an estimated [315,755] votes, so far.

Virginia’s competitive
Democratic contest has been closely watched as an early test of what liberal
voters in a battleground state are looking for in a statewide candidate
following the party’s White House defeat. The outcome of the race is likely to
disappoint supporters of progressive icon Bernie Sanders, who endorsed
Northam’s opponent former Representative Tom Perriello. It may also be
interpreted as a sign that traditional predictors of success in primary
elections have retained their resonance even in the topsy-turvy political
climate of the Trump era.

Northamlocked downendorsements from long-time Democratic power-brokers
in Virginia, including McAuliffe, and Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, as
well as a coveted endorsement fromThe Washington Post. McAuliffereleased a
statementMonday
congratulating Northam: “This election will be a choice between electing Ralph
Northam and building on the Democratic successes we've achieved together or
electing Republicans who will support Donald Trump's agenda of cutting taxes
for the rich at the expense of Virginian's education and health care,” he said.

Stewart’s
strength on the Republican ballot was perhaps the biggest surprise of the
evening. He had been running as more Trump than Trump, making provocative
statements and campaigning on the issue of preserving Confederate monuments.
Polls had shown him with a fraction of Gillespie’s support, but a low turnout
among Republican voters gave Stewart’s committed base an outsize influence, and
Wagner drew significant votes in Hampton Roads that might otherwise have gone
to Gillespie.

Gillespie’s
strength in Fairfax County seemed to be providing the edge as final returns
came trickling in. Stewart scored big wins in Washingto’s exurbs - Loudoun,
Fauquier and his own Prince William County - as well as in the rural central
and southwest regions of the state.

Stewart’s unexpectedly strong showing shocked Republicans at Gillespie’s
party at a Hilton Hotel ballroom in the Richmond suburbs, where supporters who
had expected a blow-out were concerned to see Stewart running a close second.

“I’m shocked,” said Nancy Russell, who was Hanover County chairwoman when
Gillespie ran for Senate in 2014. She was worried that Stewart would doom the
GOP’s chances in November if he won the nomination. “If Donald Trump didn’t carry the state of Virginia, I don’t know how
Corey is going to,” she said.

Trump’s approval
rating in Virginia is even worse than it is nationwide: Only 36 percent of
Virginians were satisfied with his performance in apoll conducted last monthby The Washington Post and the Schar
School.

That created a challenge for Republican candidates, because the party’s
base still supports the president, said Rozell, the George Mason dean.
Virginia’s primary, he said, will show “whether a prominent Republican in a
major campaign is able to separate himself in the public’s mind from the
unpopular policies and actions of the Trump administration, while at the same
time not losing much of the Republican support a candidate is going to need to
win a general election.”

A Stewart victory in the primary would, in effect, put Trump on the ballot
- making November’s election a clear referendum on the president and his
policies and style.

Stewart's near win underscores the reality that the Republican Party is the party of religious zealots and white supremacists. The GOP that I knew is truly dead.

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Out gay attorney in a committed relationship; formerly married and father of three wonderful children; sometime activist and political/news junkie; survived coming out in mid-life and hope to share my experiences and reflections with others.
In the career/professional realm, I am affiliated with Caplan & Associates PC where I practice in the areas of real estate, estate planning (Wills, Trusts, Advanced Medical Directives, Financial Powers of Attorney, Durable Medical Powers of Attorney); business law and commercial transactions; formation of corporations and limited liability companies and legal services to the gay, lesbian and transgender community, including birth certificate amendment.

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