Where the party leaders go during the first few days of the election campaign can sometimes give a good indication of where the parties are focusing their resources and what message they want to send to voters.

Alberta New Democratic Party leader Rachel Notley announced the election call in central Calgary, where the NDP hope to create a battleground in this election. Today, Notley started the second day of the election in Edmonton and later travelled to Red Deer to campaign with MLAs Kim Schreiner and Barb Miller, She finished her day in Lethbridge to speak at the Canadian Union of Public Employees provincial convention and will be in the city tomorrow to support MLAs Shannon Phillips and Maria Fitzpatrick.

United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenny started the campaign in Leduc, south of Edmonton, and kicked off his party’s campaign at the office of Edmonton-City Centre candidate Lily Le. The UCP are hoping to make gains in Edmonton in this election. Today, Kenney also headed south to Lethbridge to support candidates Karri Flatla and Nathan Neudorf.

Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel spent the first two days of the election in Edmonton, where his party hopes to capitalize on his name-recognition as mayor of the city from 2004 to 2013. And Liberal Party leader David Khan was in Calgary, where he is expected to focus on his race in Calgary-Mountain View.

That both Notley and Kenney visited Lethbridge in the first few days of the election signifies how much both parties feel how important and competitive the city’s two districts could be in this election.

Lethbridge’s electoral history is more liberal-leaning than most of the surrounding region in southern Alberta, likely due to the influence of the University of Lethbridge and Lethbridge College and a large number of public sector workers in the city. Even during Ralph Klein’s time as premier, the Liberals either won a plurality of the votes or match the PC vote in the city’s, mostly due to the large margins of victory earned by Lethbridge-East MLAs Ken Nicol and Bridget Pastoor.

As the Liberal vote collapsed in 2012, Phillips came close to winning in Lethbridge-West in 2012,. The NDP swept both districts in 2015 with significant margins. As Minister of Environment and Parks, Shannon Phillips has been a key player in Notley’s cabinet and a strong advocate for the city in the Legislature. This makes Phillips a target for the UCP and the reason why Kenney travelled to Lethbridge to re-announce his plans to cancel climate change initiatives like the carbon tax.

Here is a look at the voting history of the two Lethbridge districts over the past 26 years.

UCP appoints Jeremy Wong to replace Caylan Ford

The UCP announced that it has appointed Jeremy Wong as the UCP candidate in Calgary-Mountain View following the resignation of star candidate Caylan Ford earlier this week. Wong ran against Ford for the nomination in December 2018. He is a pastor with the Calgary Chinese Alliance Church and recently completed a Master of Public Administration at the University of Calgary.

The UCP now have three candidate vacancies remaining, with nominating meetings scheduled to take place in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood on March 21, Edmonton-Ellerslie on March 23, and Edmonton-Mill Woods on March 24.

Standing in front of diverse group of supporters at the National Music Centre in Calgary, Premier Rachel Notley announced that Alberta’s next provincial general election will be held on Tuesday, April 16, 2019.

Notley’s campaign kick-off speech gave a good idea what the New Democratic Party’s narrative will be in this election campaign – creating a clear contrast in character, leadership and trust between Notley and United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney.

“Jason Kenny isn’t working for you. He wants two Albertas – one for the wealthy and one for the rest of us. He wants two Alberta’s, divided over people’s rights,” Notley said.

“I want to build one Alberta. I say we stick together through this final stage – from adversity to recovery to shared prosperity – that we take care of each other,” she said.

As I have written before, campaigns always try to play to their strengths and downplay their weaknesses. This is why the NDP campaign will put Notley front-and-centre and the UCP will not be featuring Kenney logos on their election lawn signs.

The two main party leaders have divergent popularity among voters. While her party is behind in the polls, Notley has fairly respectably approval ratings, making her the NDP’s strongest asset. On the flip side, Kenney’s approval ratings fall far below support for his party, meaning that he is far from his party’s strongest asset in the minds of many voters.

The NDP’s decision to launch the election in Calgary was not a shock, as the party needs to maintain a hold on its seats in Alberta’s largest city if it wants to be re-elected on April 16. At this point, it is hard to believe the NDP will hold most of their seats in Calgary but the governing party is realistically expected to be competitive in 5 or 6 districts in the city.

Notley also spoke about her government’s commitment to education and health care, including the long-overdue construction of the new Calgary Cancer Centre, and the economy and oil pipelines.

The Notley NDP still have an electoral math problem, with the UCP leading in the polls in Calgary and rural Alberta, but after this week’s internal UCP turmoil, the NDP are probably feeling as confident as they ever were going to be before the May 31 deadline to hold the provincial election.

Jason Kenney

Speaking with a handful of tradesmen standing behind him at a job site in Leduc, Kenney launched his first press conference of the election campaign trying to steer the focus away from Ford’s resignation and the Kenney-Callaway collusion scandal. Kenney returned to his key messages around jobs, the economy and pipelines – and how he believed the NDP have failed in these areas.

Kenney’s message will resonate with a lot of Albertans who have felt unease and frustration with the drop in the international price of oil, high than usual unemployment levels, and delays in oil pipeline construction. And the UCP hopes this message will resonate in the Edmonton region, where the NDP swept almost every seat in the 2015 election.

So, as the election gets going, expect the Kenney to try to stick to these three key messages while the NDP focus on contrasting Notley with her main opponent. Let the games begin!

Maja McAllister and David Ruiz were issued letter of reprimand for donating $4,000 to Jeff Callaway, registered UCP leadership contestant, with funds given or furnished by another person.

Darcy McAllister was issued one administrative penalties of $4,000 for donating $4,000 to Callaway’s campaign with funds given or furnished by another person, and a second administrative penalty of $4,000 for furnishing $4,000 to Maja McAllister for the purpose of making contribution to Callaway’s campaign, according to the Election Commission website.

Writ Day Hot Take

I spoke with 630CHED host Ryan Jespersen this morning moments after Notley wrapped up her speech announcing the election. Here is my hot take:

Caylan Ford has resigned as the United Conservative Party candidate in Calgary-Mountain View following a report by Press Progress that alleges she sent text messages complaining that ‘white supremacist terrorists face a double-standard compared to Islamic terrorists.’

In a statement published on Facebook early on the morning of March 19, 2019, Ford announced her resignation and wrote that the “comments published by PressProgress are distortions and are not reflective of my views.”

She accused Karim Jivraj, who she appears to believe Press Progress’s source, of waging “an obsessive campaign of intimidation, harassment, and defamation” against her. Jivraj is a former Conservative Party of Canada nomination candidate in Calgary-Centre.

Ford was widely considered a star candidate for the UCP in this district, which has been represented by retiring Liberal MLA David Swann since 2004. She is an international affairs specialist with a background in China and human rights and has worked as a senior policy advisor with Global Affairs Canada.

UCP leader Jason Kenney‘s Facebook page has recently been running advertisements in support of her candidacy in Calgary-Mountain View, suggesting that this was a priority district for the UCP in the upcoming election.

She was first elected in 2015, earning 39.3 per cent, and previous to that worked as a provisional psychologist. She has served as Deputy Speaker and Chair of Committees in the Legislative Assembly since her election.

Premier Rachel Notley will officially accept her party’s candidacy at a nomination meeting scheduled to take place on Sunday, March 17, 2019 in her Edmonton-Strathcona district. Notley was re-elected to serve a third-term as the MLA for this district in 2015 with 82 per cent of the vote. The meeting is expected to be more of a rally and campaign kick-off, with the Speech from the Throne taking place on March 18 and an election call expected shortly afterward.

The NDP have also nominated Holly Heffernan in Drumheller-Stettler, Robyn O’Brien in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Jeff Ible in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, Doug Hart in Lacombe-Ponoka, and Esther Tailfeathers in Cardston-Siksika.

United Conservative Party

The UCP has acclaimed Kulshan Gill as that party’s candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona. Gill ran for the UCP nomination in the northeast district of Edmonton-Manning but was defeated by Harry Grewal. Real estate agent Jovita Mendita withdrew from the UCP contest in that district.

The UCP has scheduled a nomination contest in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood on March 21, 2019. despite initially having four candidates registered as interested in seeking the nomination, only two candidates remain: Leila Houle and Atul Ranade.

Houle previously ran for the well-known-for-all-the-wrong-reasons UCP nomination in Edmonton-West Henday and was defeated by Nicole Williams. She previously ran as the federal Liberal candidate in the now-defunct Westlock-St. Paul district in 2008, finishing with 9.1 per cent in that vote. Renade registered intention to seek the UCP nomination in August 2018 after previously withdrawing from UCP nomination contests in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview and Edmonton-South.

Del Shupenia’s candidacy was not accepted by the party and George Lam and Michael Kalyn have withdrawn from the contest.

Arundeep Sandhu broke his silence this week and spoke to CBC’s The Ledge podcast about his disappointment in Jason Kenney’s decision to appoint Len Rhodes as the UCP candidate in Edmonton-Meadows. Sandhu is considering running as an independent candidate or even for a different party. “I’m a conservative, but I don’t believe I can run for the UCP as long as this leadership and this leadership team is in there,” he told CBC.

Alberta Party

Three more Alberta Party candidates have had their 5-year bans on running as candidates waived by the Court of Queen’s Bench. Rachel Timmermans in Calgary-Lougheed, Tim Meech in Livingstone-Macleod, and Ali Haymour in Edmonton-Decore will appear on ballots in their respective districts in the upcoming election.

The court has not yet waived the ban placed on party leader and former Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel, who had been planning to run in Edmonton-McClung. Elections Alberta ruled in early February that seven Alberta Party candidates were ineligible to run after being late to file financial statements from their nomination contests.

Danielle Klooster is the nominated Alberta Party candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Klooster is a former town councillor from Penhold and ran for the Alberta Party in 2012 and 2015, earning 4.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent of the vote in those races.

Hazelyn Williams is the Alberta Party candidate in Edmonton-Ellerslie. Williams in the third candidate to be nominated by the Alberta Party in Ellerslie during this election cycle, replacing previously nominated candidate Yash Sharma, who was removed after appearing at a controversial rally, and Richard Corbin, who withdrew for unexplained reasons.

Green Party

Jenn Roach has been nominated as the Green Party candidate in Leduc-Beamont.

Freedom Conservative Party

The Freedom Conservative Party has nominated Sheyne Espey in Calgary-Peigan, Jeff Rout in Leduc-Beaumont, and Clayton Knutson in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Wade Woywitka and Matthew Powell are competing for the FCP nomination in Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright.

Liberal Party

Former Grande Prairie city councillor Kevin McLean has been nominated as the Liberal Party candidate in St. Albert. McLean served on Grande Praire City Council from 2010 to 2017 and ran for the Liberal Party in Grande Prairie-Smoky in the 2012 and 2015 elections, earning 4.8 per cent of the vote in each of those races.

Independent/Alberta Independence Party

Two candidates affiliated with the unregistered Alberta Independence Party have filed papers to run as Independent candidates in the upcoming election: CW Alexander in Calgary-Klein and Monica Friesz in Calgary-Mountain View.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

As mentioned in the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast, some members of the local UCP board of directors are up in arms about Kenney’s claim that they were consulted with and asked for Rhodes to be appointed as the candidate. Some of the disgruntled board members are said to be collecting signatures for a letter disputing Kenney’s claims, and that more than a dozen local directors have signed the letter.

Rhodes’ surprise appointment last week eliminated three candidates – Arundeep Sandhu, Joel Mullen and Sant Sharma – who had been selling party memberships and door-knocking to compete for the UCP nomination for up to twelve months.

Arundeep Sandhu released a letter on social media today expressing his disappointment in the decision and thanking his supporters. It was a classy letter, but it certainly did not include the “let’s all get behind the appointed candidate” message that Kenney and Rhodes were likely looking for.

Meanwhile, more than 400 New Democratic Party members voted to choose Jasvir Deol as their candidate in Edmonton-Meadows. Deol defeated Chand Gul and MLA Denise Woollard, who had been elected to represent Edmonton-Mill Creek in 2015.

An NDP nomination meeting in West Yellowhead that was originally scheduled for this past weekend appears to have been rescheduled to March 9, 2019.

Dr. Esther Tailfeathers is seeking the NDP nomination in Cardston-Siksika. Dr. Tailfeathers is a Physician at the Blood Tribe Clinic at Standoff and a Clinical Lecturer in the Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry at the University of Alberta.

Melissa Langmaid has announced plans to seek the NDP nomination in Chestermere-Strathmore. Langmaid is an Environmental Advisor with AltaLink and a unit coordinator with the United Utility Workers’ Association.

Holly Heffernan is seeking the NDP nomination in Drumheller-Stettler. Heffernan is a retired Registered Nurse and long-time NDP activist, having run numerous times for the NDP in both provincial and federal elections in Calgary.

Buruma is Director of Community Relations forRed Deer Public School District and Executive Director of the Foundation for Red Deer Public Schools. Davidson is Chief of Emergency Medicine for Alberta Health Services’ Central Zone. Poratto is a decorator and event planner, and ran for the PC Party nomination in the district ahead of the 2008 election. Stephan is a lawyer and president of the Red Deer Taxpayers’ Association. And Wiebe was the Wildrose Party candidate in this district in the 2015 election, earning 24 percent of the vote behind NDP candidate Barb Miller and PC candidate Darcy Mykytyshyn.

Davidson’s wife, Pamela Davidson, sought the UCP Central Alberta Director election at the party’s 2018 annual general meeting and previously ran against Christine Moore in the Red Deer County Division 6 election in 2017. Moore ran unsuccessfully for the UCP nomination in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake ahead of the 2018 by-election and as the Progressive Conservative candidate in Red Deer-North in the 2015 election.

The UCP has also opened nomination contests in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, and Edmonton-MIll Woods.

“After nearly seven years as an MLA shackled with Party-first priorities, it is clear that Alberta’s party system of government has stripped effective representation and across-the-board best interests from Alberta’s citizens,” wrote Strankman in a media release posted on this website. “Running for election and winning office as an Independent will enable me to restore the priorities of all Drumheller Stettler citizens to the front lines of the Legislature and advance their priorities for resurrecting Alberta’s prosperity.” he said.

With Schneider declining to seek re-election, Donovan supported past Christian Heritage candidate Marc Slingerland in the UCP nomination contest against eventual winner Joseph Schow. Donovan later announced he was quitting the UCP, citing a dictatorship-like control of the party by Kenney.

Mandel awaits fate as 2 Alberta Party candidates back on the ballot

The Court of Queen’s Bench has waived the 5-year ban on Alberta Party candidates Moe Rahall in Edmonton-Castle Downs and Diana Ly in Edmonton-Gold Bar, who will now be allowed to run in the 2019 election. Party leader Stephen Mandel and four other Alberta Party candidates still await their fate as the court has yet to remove their bans.

Swann staffer runs for the Green Party

Janice Fraser is running for the Green Party in Calgary-McCall. Fraser is currently the office manager for Calgary-Mountain View Liberal MLA David Swann, who is retiring after four-terms in the Legislature. Swann’s other constituency office staffer, Joshua Codd, is the nominated Liberal Party candidate in Calgary-Currie.

Jane Drummond is running for the Green Party in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre. Drummond is the editor of the Nordegg Squeek and has served as an Alberta Hiking Association member representing Terra Firma Nordegg Hiking.

New Democratic Party MLA Nicole Goehring was nominated as her party’s candidate in Edmonton-Castle Downs, a district she has represented since 2015. Goehring won her first election with 64.5 percent of the vote, unseating four-term Progressive Conservative MLA and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk. Since her election, Goehring has served as the Government of Alberta’s Liaison to the Canadian Armed Forces and as chairperson of the Standing Committee on Families and Communities.

Calgary-Bow – NDP MLA Deborah Drever is expected to be nominated as her party’s candidate at a selection meeting on January 26, 2019. Drever was first elected in 2015 and faced considerable backlash from her political opponents when it was discovered she had made controversial posts on social media. She redeemed herself as a well-spoken representative and shepherded her first private members’ bill – Bill 204 – to unanimous approval in the Legislature in 2015. She rejoined the NDP caucus shortly after that.

Calgary-Currie – Joshua Codd has been nominated as the Liberal Party candidate in this southwest Calgary district. Codd is currently a Constituency Assistant for Calgary-Mountain View Liberal MLA David Swann.

Calgary-Shaw – MLA Graham Sucha is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in this district on January 27, 2019. Sucha was elected as the MLA for this district in 2015, earning 31.3 percent of the vote ahead of PC MLA Jeff Wilsonwith 30.7 percent and Wildroser Brad Leishman with 30.4 percent.

Drayton Valley-Devon – Steve Goodman is seeking the Freedom Conservative Party nomination. Goodman is a Senior Community Peace Officer with Brazeau County.

Edmonton-Ellerslie – Richard Corbin and Todd Ross appear to have withdrawn from the Alberta Party nomination contest days after another candidate, Chuck McKenna, also withdrew. The Alberta Party briefly posted a tweet congratulating Corbin on becoming the party’s candidate in the district but that tweet appears to have been removed.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – Rebecca Trotter is the Green Party candidate in this district east of Edmonton. Trotter is the President of RM Trotter Management Incorporated and a Sergeant at Arms for Rotary International

West Yellowhead – Zack Seizmagraff is the Liberal Party candidate in this district. Seizmagraff was the federal Liberal Party candidate in Yellowhead in the 2011 election, earning 2.87 percent of the vote.

Who is the mystery UCP star candidate in Red Deer-South?

Red Deer-South

To the chagrin of local members, the UCP announced in early December that the party was delaying the selection meeting in Red Deer-South until 2019 in order to give time for a “high profile individual” run join the contest. The local UCP association is organizing an all-candidates forum on January 31, 2019, and only the original four candidates contesting the nomination, the true identity of the unnamed star candidate remains a mystery.

The UCP has now scheduled nomination meetings in Lethbridge-East and Calgary-North to take place on February 9, 2019. I will post a preview of these contests next week.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

Calgary-Currie – Joshua Codd is seeking the Liberal Party nomination. Codd is currently a Constituency Assistant for Calgary-Mountain View Liberal MLA David Swann. A candidate selection meeting has been scheduled for Jan. 23, 2019.

Calgary-Hays – Chris Nowell has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in this southeast Calgary district. The district is currently represented by UCP MLA Ric McIver, who was acclaimed as his party’s candidate on June 7, 2018.

Calgary-Peigan – Joseph Pimlott is seeking the NDP nomination in this south east Calgary district. Pimlott is a community liaison with Metis Calgary Family Services and the former executive director of the Aboriginal Friendship Centre of Calgary and provincial vice-president of the Metis Nation of Alberta. A candidate selection meeting is scheduled for January 19, 2019.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

Update: Controversy with NDP nomination in Calgary-North East

NDP members in the Calgary-North East district are calling for an investigation into alleged voter fraud at a nomination vote held in December 2018. Gurbachan Brar defeated Roop Rai to win the NDP nomination and now a member of Rai’s campaign says complaints about people from outside the riding voting fraudulently were not taken seriously by the party.

According to a report by the CBC, the complaints allege people voted using false addresses and documents, both ahead of the vote and on the day itself.

The First Minister’s Meeting, oil prices, and Premier Rachel Notley’s performance on the national stage are where we started the discussion in this episode. Dave and Ryan also delved into the latest nomination news and what 2019 holds for Alberta politics, including when the next provincial and federal elections could be called.

We also discuss our choices for theDaveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey. Submissions will close on December 12, 2018 at 12:00pm and the top three choices in each category will be included in a round of voting starting on December 13, 2018. Voting will be open until December 19 and the winners will be announced on December 20, 2018.

Thanks to everyone who sent us questions for this episode. We had so many great questions that we have recorded a special episode dedicated to answering your questions that will be published for your listening pleasure on December 24, 2018.

And a huge thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, who keeps us on track and makes each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

This nomination contest was contentious, with questions about the eligibility of Fordand former MLAMark Hlady in the contest. Ford’s candidacy was ultimately accepted and Hlady, who represented his district as a Progressive Conservative MLA from 1993 to 2004 and as the PC Party candidate in 2015, was not approved by the UCP to run.

According to Postmedia, one woman in Calgary-East “said she was solicited by Singh at his auto shop while getting her vehicle repaired last July, and soon after discovered her credit card number had been used to purchase a party membership.”

Calgary-Falconridge – Parmeet Singh was nominated as the NDP candidate in this northeast Calgary district.

Edmonton-South West – Kaycee Madu defeated Kevin Greco and former PC MLA Sohail Quadri to secure the UCP nomination on December 6, 2018.

Livingstone-Macleod – Roger Reid defeated Nathan Neudorf and Thomas Schneider to win the UCP nomination on December 8, 2018. Reid is the owner of Tim Hortons franchises in Nanton and Claresholm. He is the second Tim Horton’s franchaise owner to win a UCP nomination, along with Grande Prairie UCP candidate Tracy Allard.

Sherwood Park – Jordan Walker defeated Maureen Gough, Sean Kenny, and Len Thom to secure the UCP nomination in Sherwood Park. Walker is a conservative party activist and an Assessment Consultant in the Alberta Department of Labour.

Upcoming nomination meetings

With the end of the year approaching, Alberta’s political parties have begun winding down nomination meetings scheduled for this year. By the end of 2018, the UCP will have nominated candidates in 77 of Alberta’s 87 districts, the NDP will have nominated candidates in 33 districts, and the Alberta Party in around 50 districts. Here are the remaining nomination meetings being held in 2018:

December 12, 2018 – Richard Dempsey, Karri Flatla, and George Rigaux are seeking the UCP nomination in Lethbridge-West.

December 12, 2018 – Two NDP MLAs are challenging each other for their party’s nomination in the newly redrawn St. Albert district. Current Spruce Grove-St. Albert MLA Trevor Horne and current St. Albert MLA Marie Renaud are seeking the NDP candidacy. Both MLAs were first elected in 2015.

December 13, 2018 – NDP MLA Thomas Dang is expected to be nominated as his party’s candidate in Edmonton-South. Dang was first elected in 2015 in Edmonton-South West, where he earned 53 percent of the vote and unseated PC MLA Matt Jeneroux.

December 15, 2018 – Manwar Khan and Keli Tamaklo are seeking the Alberta Party nomination in Edmonton-Manning. Tamaklo is a former member of Edmonton Police Commission, Vice-Chair of the Africa Centre, and former Chief Administrative Officer for the Town of High Prairie. Khan is a Business Coordinator in the provincial Department of Community and Social Services and founded Do Not Be a Bystander, after witnessing and attempting to intervene to prevent a murder on Edmonton’s LRT.

December 15, 2018 – “Mulligan!” Shane Getson and Leah Wood are facing off in the second UCP nomination contest in Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland. A previous nomination contest held in August 2018 resulted in a win for Onoway business owner Dale Johnson, who was later disqualified after the UCP discovered he was alleged to have paid $5,584.60 to an employee he fired with whom he was in a romantic relationship. A former member of the UCP interim board of directors, Wood was widely seen as the establishment favourite in the first contest and is in a similar position in this second nomination contest.

December 16, 2018 – Gurbachan Brar and Roop Rai are seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-North East. Brar is the former President of the Punjabi Likhari Sabha and is a former Broadcaster at RED FM 106.7. Rai is a constituency assistant to Calgary-McCall NDP MLA Irfan Sabir and was her party’s candidate in the 2016 by-election in Calgary-Greenway. In that contest she earned 20.17 percent of the vote in a competitive four-way race that saw PC candidate Prab Gill win with 27.7 percent.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

What we know:

The last provincial General Election was held 3 years, 7 months, 2 days ago on May 5, 2015.

According to Section 38.1(2) of the Elections Act, a general election should be held between March 1 and May 31, and in the same three-month period in the fourth calendar year thereafter. This means that the next general election will likely be held between March 1 and May 31, 2019. This fixed election period was introduced in the Election Amendment Act passed on December 6, 2011.

Election campaign periods in Alberta last 28 days. Section 39 (d) of the Election Act states: “the 28th day after the date of the writ is the day on which voting is to take place, or if the 28th day is a holiday, the next following day not being a holiday.” There are a number of statutory and religious holidays that fall in this fixed election period when an election day would not be held: Good Friday is April 19, Easter Monday is April 22, and Victoria Day is May 20.

In accordance with our parliamentary system of government, the Elections Act also states that nothing in the law “affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature, in Her Majesty’s name, when the Lieutenant Governor sees fit.” This means that Lieutenant Governor Lois Mitchell could issue a writ of election and dissolve the Legislative Assembly whenever she is asked to do so by Premier Rachel Notley. It would be highly irregular for a Lieutenant Governor to deny a Premier’s wish to issue a writ of election.

Speculation:

There are a number of factors that could impact when exactly the election is called.

One major indicator of a party’s readiness for an election is the number of candidates they have nominated. As of today, the New Democratic Party has nominated 31 candidates in 87 districts, meaning that party will need to nominate a majority of its candidates in the first few months of 2019 in order to be prepared for a spring election. The United Conservative Party currently has nominated 74 candidates in 87 districts and will have almost an entire slate of candidates nominated by the end of 2018.

Whether the NDP will recall the Legislative Assembly in the spring of 2019 to present a Throne Speech and introduce a budget before calling an election is unknown at this point. The recent session of the Assembly, which ended on Thursday, December 6, 2018, is widely considered to be the last session in which a serious legislative agenda would be implemented. But it is not uncommon for governments to call an election immediately after tabling or passing a budget, and then using that budget as a de-facto campaign platform.

In 2015, Premier Jim Prentice called an election twelve days after a 16 days session which ended with the tabling of a provincial budget. And Premier Alison Redford called the election five days after the MLAs voted to approve that year’s provincial budget.

Tabling a provincial budget before calling an election could be a double-edge sword for the NDP in 2019.

Using a budget as its re-election platform would allow the Notley government to highlight its continued investments in health care, education, and public transportation like Calgary’s Green Line and Edmonton’s west LRT expansion, and contrast its plan with the expected slash and burn budgets that would be introduced under a UCP government led by Jason Kenney. But unless there is a big change in Alberta’s economic situation (and the international price of oil), any budget presented by the NDP in 2019 would likely have a significant deficit. While both the NDP and UCP have said they would plan to run budget deficits for the next few years, it would draw unwanted attention to an issue that is not seen as the NDP’s strength.

But whether or not a budget is tabled before the election, Finance Minister Joe Ceci is still required by the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act to publicly release a Fiscal Update and Economic Statement on or before February 28, 2019.

Elections Alberta will release the first quarter financial disclosures of fundraising by Alberta’s political parties in mid-April 2019. And if the UCP continues dominating in the fundraising field, the NDP may want to avoid a round of news coverage about how they have been out-fundraised by its main conservative opponent.

A shrewd calculation related to when the election is held could be related to when voters of certain demographics are likely to be in Alberta and have easy access of voting stations. Calling an early election could limit the ability of vacationing snowbirds to cast their ballots in the election. Polls have suggested that the UCP has a considerable lead over the NDP among voters over the age of 65.

On the other end of the demographic spectrum, calling an early election in 2019 would ensure that university and college campuses are in session when the election is held. Polls suggest that the NDP have stronger support among younger and university educated voters. Mobilizing the student vote could make a difference in a number of electoral districts currently represented by the NDP, including Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Varsity, Edmonton-Centre, Edmonton-Riverview, and Lethbridge-West.

Delay the election to late 2019 or early 2020?

Notley said publicly in 2017 that she intends to follow both the spirit and letter of Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation. But as we all know, circumstances sometimes change in politics.

There might be a backlash of public opinion, like the Progressive Conservative government faced when it called an election one year early in 2015, but the NDP do have the ability to wait until Spring 2020 to call the next provincial election. Alberta’s Election Act fixes the period to every four years, but the Charter of Rights and Freedoms says otherwise.

According to Section 4. (1) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, “No House of Commons and no legislative assembly shall continue for longer than five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs at a general election of its members.”

The decision to delay the next general election beyond Spring 2019 could have drastic electoral consequences for the NDP, but if the party already sees its chances of re-election as slim, as most polls suggest, it might be convinced to take the gamble. Waiting until late 2019 or early 2020 could mean the election could be held after the start of construction of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and as the economy continues to recover from the drop in the international price of oil in 2014.

Delaying until 2020 would also give Notley an opportunity to campaign against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the expected October 2019 federal election. This would give Notley an opportunity to create some distance between herself and Trudeau, who had allies on the climate change file before their political relationship broke down over the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion delays.

Delaying the election would have unclear consequences for Third Party Election Advertisers.

The Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act currently states these groups, commonly known as Political Action Committees, are limited to spending $150,000 province-wide on election-related advertising between December 1 in the year before an election and election day. This legislation was passed under the assumption that the fixed-election period would be honoured. If the election is delayed until past spring 2019 and the post-December 1 limits continue to be implemented, the ability of PACs to advertise during the election would be severely limited.

Calgary-Falconridge – Devinder Toor defeated Pete de Jong and Jesse Minhas to secure the United Conservative Party nomination in this district. Toor was the Wildrose Party candidate in the 2016 by-election and 2015 general election in Calgary-Greenway. He was defeated by then-Progressive Conservative candidate Prab Gill in the 2016 by-election to choose a successor to Manmeet Bhullar, who Toor was defeated by in 2015.

Happy Mann’s candidacy in this contest was rejected by the UCP after he was alleged to have been involved in a incident where a local reporter was assaulted. Mann was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-McCall in the 2015 election and Calgary-Cross in the 2012 election.

Camrose – Kevin Smook defeated Steven Hansen to secure the Alberta Party nomination in this district. Smook is councillor for Division 1 on Beaver County council, where he was first elected in 2013. He served as Reeve of Beaver County from 2014 to 2017.

Edmonton-West Henday – Leah McRorie is seeking the Liberal Party nomination in this Edmonton district. McRorie is a certified facilitator with the Alberta Caregivers Associationand prolific tweeter. According to her LinkedIn profile, she provided social media support for Jeanne Lehman in her campaign for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Manning ahead of the 2015 federal election.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake – Devin Dreeshen has been acclaimed as the UCP candidate in this district. There had been speculation that Dreeshen would be appointed by the UCP board and there does not appear to be any evidence that an open nomination contest was held before he was acclaimed.

Leduc-Beaumont – Robb Connelly is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. His application to run for the Alberta Party nomination in the neighbouring Strathcona-Sherwood Park district was denied by the Party.

Lesser Slave Lake – Judy Kim-Meneen is no longer the nominated Alberta Party candidate in this sprawling northern Alberta district. Kim-Meneen instead now appears to have been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in Edmonton-North West. It also appears that former PC Party candidate Emerson Mayers withdrew from the contest in Edmonton-North West and that former Liberal Party candidate Todd Ross is now seeking the Alberta Party nomination in Edmonton-Ellerslie.

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain – Spruce Grove City Councillor Searle Turton defeated Mathew Clarke and Jerry W. Semen to secure the UCP nomination in this urban district west of Edmonton. Turton was first elected to Spruce Grove City Council in 2010.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

Here is a preview of the nomination contests being held in the coming days:

Polak is the former Vice-President of Communications for the Wildrose Party and served as a member of the UCP interim board from 2017 to 2018. Ford is an international affairs specialist with a background in China and human rights. She has worked as a senior policy advisor with Global Affairs Canada. Wong is a pastor with the Calgary Chinese Alliance Church and recently completed a Master of Public Administration at the University of Calgary.

Polak has been endorsed by former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean. Ford has been endorsed by Edmonton-area MP Garnett Genuis, former PC MLA Kyle Fawcett, UCP candidates Doug Schweitzer and Tyler Shandro, and past mayoral candidate Bill Smith. Wong has been endorsed by UCP candidate Jeremy Nixon, former PC MLAs Wayne Cao and Gordon Dirks, and University of Calgary economist Jack Mintz.

Former Progressive Conservative MLA Mark Hlady was seeking the nomination but was disqualified last month.

Greco is a certified home inspector, Madu is a lawyer with Tisel Law Office, and Quadri previously served as the PC MLA for Edmonton-Mill Woods from 2008 to 2015. Quadri served as Legislative Secretary to premier Jim Prentice from 2014 to 2015.

Reid is the owner of Tim Hortons franchises in Nanton and Clareshold and is chair of the Claresholm and District Health Foundation. Schnieder previously worked as an Area Sales Representative with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

Gough was a researcher with the Wildrose and UCP caucuses. Thom is the former president of the PC Party and was the federal Conservative candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona in the 2015 election. And Walker is an Assessment Consultant in the Department of Labour.

Gough is endorsed by UCP MLAs Leela Aheer, Scott Cyr, Grant Hunter, Mark Smith, Rick Strankman, and Wes Taylor. Thom has been endorsed by Brian Jean. Walker has been endorsed by MP Garnett Genuis, former MP Ken Epp, and former UCP constituency president Stephen Burry (who is now Acting Chief of Staff with the Freedom Conservative Party Caucus).

Government audit manager Tunde Obasan defeated three-term City Councillor Mike Nickel and chiropractor William Farrell to secure the United Conservative Party nomination in the new Edmonton-South district. Three other candidates, Atul Ranade, Inderdeep Sandhu, and Payman Paresan, withdrew from the contest before the vote.

Nickel, who said in June 2018 that “I’ve done as much as I can do from a council seat,” will now presumably remain on city council until the 2021 municipal election.

Former MLA disqualified in Calgary UCP contest

Former Progressive Conservative MLA Mark Hlady has been disqualified from the UCP nomination contest in Calgary-Mountain View.

Mark Hlady

The former MLA wrote in a message to supporters that he was disqualified over a dispute over the date of purchased of his UCP membership. Hlady claims that the UCP made an exception in a similar situation with another candidate, who he does not name but is almost certainly a reference to nomination candidate Caylan Ford.

Members of the UCP Board of Directors in the district, including Hlady’s CFO, Dean Brawn, filed a complaint last month with the party over Ford’s membership status.

Hlady also claimed in his email that while the UCP disqualified him from the race, the party asked Elections Alberta to list him as having withdrawn on their website.

November 21, 2018 – Jim Black is expected to be nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in Brooks-Medicine Hat. Black was the Alberta Party candidate in Medicine Hat in the 2015 provincial election, where he earned 5.7 percent of the vote.

November 21, 2018 – MLA Richard Feehan is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Rutherford. Feehan was first elected in 2015, earning 63.9 percent of the vote. He now serves as Minister of Indigenous Relations and Deputy Government House Leader.

November 23, 2018 – MLA David Eggen is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in the new district of Edmonton-North West. Eggen has represented the Edmonton-Calder district from 2004 to 2008 and 2012 to the now. He currently serves as Minister of Education.

November 21 & 24, 2018 – There is a Wildrose Stomp in Camrose with four of the five candidates seeking the UCP nomination having run under the Wildrose Party banner in a past election. Former Edmonton-Ellerslie Wildrose candidate Jackie Lovely, former Strathcona-Sherwood Park Wildrose candidate Rob Johnson, former Calgary-South East Wildrose candidate Brandon Lunty, and former Wetaskiwin-Camrose Wildrose candidate Trevor Miller will face casino manager Dawn Anderson.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

November 6 & 7, 2018 – Former Morinville town councillor and 2015 Wildrose Party candidate Joe Gosselin, Legal town councillor Trina Jones, Dale Nally, and former Sturgeon County mayor and 2015 Wildrose nomination candidate Don Rigney are seeking the UCP nomination in Morinville-St. Albert.Gibbons town councillor Amber Harris withdrew her candidacy for the nomination on November 2, 2018. Rigney’s endorsements page on his website appears to have been reused from his 2013 mayoral re-election campaign, including a testimonial from now deceased former Social Credit MLA Keith Everitt.

November 8, 2018 – NDP MLA Barb Miller is expected to be acclaimed for her party’s nomination in Red Deer-South. Miller was elected in 2015 with 35.9 percent of the vote in a three-way race.

Calgary-Falconridge – Raman Gill is seeking the UCP nomination. Happy Mann’s candidacy appears to have been rejected by the UCP. Mann was alleged to have been involved in a incident where a local reporter was assaulted. Mann was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-McCall in the 2015 election and Calgary-Cross in the 2012 election.

Calgary-Mountain View – Long-time radio journalist Angela Kokott has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate. Many Calgarians will know Kokott as the host of Calgary Today on NewsTalk 770. She is the third 770 host to jump into provincial politics in recent history, following Dave Taylor, who served as the MLA for Calgary-Currie from 2004 to 2008 (as a Liberal, then an Independent and Alberta Party MLA), and Mike Blanchard, who ran for the Wildrose Party in Calgary-Buffalo in 2012.

Calgary-North – Melanie Wen has withdrawn her candidacy for the Alberta Party in this district. She had been nominated on October 4, 2018.

Edmonton-Manning – Keli Tamaklo is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Edmonton-North West– Emerson Mayers is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Mayers was recently a candidate for City Council in Ward 4. He ran for the Progressive Conservative Party in Edmonton-Strathcona in the 2012 election and previously sought the Liberal Party nomination in Edmonton-Manning in 1997, the PC nomination in Edmonton-Manning in 2008, the PC nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood in 2012, and the PC nomination in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview in 2015.

Richard Feehan

Edmonton-Rutherford – Richard Feehan is seeking the NDP nomination for re-election in 2019. Feehan was first elected in 2015, earning 63.9 percent of the vote. He now serves as Minister of Indigenous Relations and Deputy Government House Leader.

Edmonton-Strathcona – It was never in doubt, but Premier Rachel Notley has officially announced her plans to seek re-election in the district she has represented since 2008. Notley was re-elected with 82.4 percent of the vote in 2015. With the exception of one-term from 1993 to 1997, this district has been represented by the NDP since 1986.

Photo: Joe Anglin, speaking on the steps of the Alberta Legislature in his heyday as the Wildrose Party MLA for Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre (Photo credit: David Climenhaga)

Former Wildrose Party MLA Joe Anglin announced plans to seek the Freedom Conservative Party nomination to run in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre in the next provincial election. Anglin represented the district from 2012 to 2015, first as a Wildrose Party MLA and then as an Independent MLA.

Derek Fildebrandt

Known for his taste for a political fight, Anglin is one of the more fascinating and colourful characters to have entered Alberta politics over the past decade.

He burst on to the political stage in the mid-2000s by leading a landowners revolt against the construction of giant electrical transmission lines through rural central Alberta and soon after took over the leadership of the Alberta Greens. He earned the best result ever for a provincial Green Party candidate in Alberta in 2008, when he garnered 22 percent of the vote in Lacombe-Ponoka. He left the Greens soon after the election and the party dissolved. He was known to float in numerous political circles over the next few years before joining the Wildrose Party and being elected MLA for Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre in 2012.

Since 2015, Anglin has been on a legal crusade as he pursues a civil lawsuit against Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer and others, alleging abuse of process. As reported on David Climenhaga’s AlbertaPolitics.ca, Anglin’s statement of claim alleges Elections Alberta “carried out unfounded investigations of Mr. Anglin’s activities in the election and prosecuted him improperly for violations of election laws, in the process damaging his reputation and destroying his chances of election, causing loss of future employment.”

When nominated, Anglin will face United Conservative Party MLA Jason Nixon, who defeated Anglin for the Wildrose Party nomination in 2014 and then again in the 2015 general election.

Strathmore-Brooks MLA Derek Fildebrandt, who also is a former Wildrose MLA, is expected to be acclaimed as leader of the Freedom Conservative Party at a leadership vote event on October 20, 2018 at the Watchman’s Pub in Calgary. Fildebrandt became the FCP’s first MLA in July 2018 after he was not allowed to rejoin the UCP following a string of embarrassing scandals.

Dach nominated in McClung: NDP MLA Lorne Dach has been nominated as his party’s candidate in the southwest district of Edmonton-McClung. Dach was elected in 2015 in his fourth time as the NDP candidate in this affluent southwest Edmonton district. He will face Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel and UCP candidate Laurie Mozeson in the next election.

Barb Miller

Miller goes for re-election in Red Deer: NDP MLA Barb Miller plans to seek her party’s nomination for re-election in Red Deer-South. Miller was elected in 2015 by earning 35.9 percent of the vote in a three-way split with PC Party candidate Darcy Mykytyshyn and Wildrose Party candidate Norman Wiebe. A nomination meeting has been scheduled for November 8, 2018.

Calgary-Currie – Lindsay Luhnau is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Luhnau currently work as a business strategist with the City of Calgary and previously worked as a constituent assistant in the office of Ward 9 City Councillor Gian-Carlo Carra.

Calgary-North – Melanie Wen has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate. Wen is a member of the Immigration Consultants of Canada Regulatory Board.

Calgary-North West – Andrew Bradley has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.

Edmonton-City Centre – Lily Le was acclaimed as the UCP candidate in Edmonton-City Centre after three other candidates withdrew from the contest. Le is the Co-Chair of the Vietnam Pavilion for Edmonton Heritage Festival and President of the Edmonton Viets Association.

Edmonton-Glenora – Glen Tickner has been selected as the Alberta Party candidate.

Edmonton-Riverview – Karamarie Barker is seeking the UCP nomination. Barker is a Crown Prosecutor with the Department of Justice and Solicitor General.

Lacombe-Ponoka – Myles Chykerda is seeking the Alberta Party nomination in this central Alberta district. Chykerda is a resident of the City of Lacombe and is completing his the final stages of a PhD in Classical Archaeology from the University of California in Los Angeles.

Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland – Following Dale Johnson’s removal as a candidate the UCP announced a second nomination vote would be held. Shane Getson is the first candidate to enter the contest. He is a manager of a pipeline construction and maintenance company.

Lesser Slave Lake – Pat Rehn is seeking the UCP nomination. Rehn is the owner of AAA Precision Industries and Precision Crane and Rentals. Meanwhile, Darryl Boisson has withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest in this district. Boisson was the Wildrose Party candidate in Lesser Slave Lake in the 2012 and 2015 elections.

Red Deer-North – Reg Warkentin has withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest. Warkentin is the policy and advocacy manager with the Red Deer and District Chamber of Commerce.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

When asked by The Star Edmonton about these allegations, Coulter replied that “I wish I knew I was a white-nationalist, otherwise I would have worn the 1930s Hugo Boss, but it’s utterly ridiculous. I mean, calling somebody a racist, a white-nationalist without any kind of substantial evidence in any way shape or form, it’s defamation of character.”

UCP members in Edmonton-West Henday vote to select their candidate on October 22, 2018. It is not clear whether UCP leader Jason Kenney will allow Coulter’s name to remain on the ballot.

UPDATE: Lance Coulter has been disqualifed as a UCP nomination candidate in Edmonton-West Henday. Here is the letter from UCP executive director Janice Harrington informing Coulter of his disqualification.

Photo: UCP nomination candidate Nicole Williams (second from the left) with members of the Soliders of Odin at a UCP event on October 5, 2018 (source: Facebook).

United Conservative Party candidates in the new district of Edmonton-West Henday say they had no idea they were posing for photos with members of the anti-immigration group Soldiers of Odin at a party event on October 5, 2018. Members of the vigilante group, who have been described as white nationalists, attended the UCP event in their club uniforms and posed for photos with nomination candidates Nicole Williams, Leila House and Lance Coulter.

Leila Houle (left) and the Soldiers of Odin

The party and two of the nomination candidates quickly denounced the photos, which were shared on social media first by the Soldiers of Odin and then by Progress Alberta. The candidates claimed they had no idea who the black clad group of vigilantes were, despite recentlocalnewscoverage and the fact that they appear to have been wearing their branded uniforms with big logos.

“Those running for public office are regularly photographed with members of the public. It is part of the job. We were unfortunately not aware of what the abbreviation ‘S.O.O’ stood for when these individuals entered the public venue in which the Constituency Association was holding an event, nor were we aware of this group’s disgusting views,” wrote Houle and Williams in a joint statement posted on Facebook.

Lance Coulter (right) and a Soldier of Odin.

It would be unfair to claim these nomination candidates share sympathies with the Soldiers of Odin, but a string of recentexamplesof UCP nomination candidates voicing anti-Muslim views online might be one reason why the group felt comfortable attending the event in their full regalia.

A copy of the complaint shared with daveberta.ca showed the group of directors are requesting the party to investigate whether Ford meets the Alberta residency requirement to seek the nomination.

The complaint claims that Ford was until recently a resident of Ontario and that the party nomination rules require UCP candidates “to have physically lived on Albertan soil for one year before becoming a UCP candidate.”

Reached by email, Ford responded to the complaint: “The board members who signed this letter were misinformed. They also appear to have misunderstood the UCP’s residency requirements. A good faith mistake, I am sure.”

Ford is an international affairs specialist with a background in China and human rights. She has worked as a senior policy advisor with Global Affairs Canada. Ford was a panelist at a 2018 Manning Centre conference discussion about conservative culture in Canada.

Ford, Hlady, Becca Polak and Jeremy Wong are seeking the UCP nomination in this district. A date for the nomination vote has not yet been announced.

The opinions expressed on this blog represent my own and not those of my employer or any organization I may be affiliated with.

In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This blog is intended to provide a semi-permanent point in time snapshot and manifestation of the various ideas running around my brain, and as such any thoughts and opinions expressed within out-of-date posts may not the same, nor even similar, to those I may hold today.