Falcons win by passing, lose by rushing

Matt Trowbridge

Tuesday

Dec 28, 2010 at 12:01 AMDec 28, 2010 at 1:16 AM

I haven't been worried about the Bears possibly playing an NFC title game in Atlanta because the Falcons have never scared me. I always thought the Saints were better, and maybe even the Packers, despite the Falcon's NFC-best record. When New Orleans won Monday night, that seemed to back up my contention. ESPN.com's Gregg Easterbrookexplains both how the Falcons began 11-2 and why they lost to the Saints: The used to pass on first down, and they stubbornly stuck with failed first-down runs Monday. He writes that Atlanta passes more on first down than any team in the NFL, but wrote that Atlanta ran 12 times for 23 yards on first down, against nine defenders stacked at the line, and passed 11 times for 108 yards on first down, counting scrambles and a pass interference penalty. Basically, the Falcons beat themselves. I can come across as anti-run, but the truth is I like for teams to run. I just think they run at the wrong times. As Easterbrook writes, teams should run on second and third down more and pass more on first down. I say they should pass more on first, by far the best down to pass on, and should also pass more on second-and-long, but should run far, far more often on third-and-medium -- especially when they plan to go for it on fourth down; the Jets for-sure should have run on third-and-3 at the start of the second half against the Bears since they knew they were going to go for it on fourth down. Advancednflstats.comwrites that first-down passes are 10-times as effective as first-down runs between the 20-yard lines (with one-tenth of an expected point per pass as opposed to one-100th for a run), and that passing more on first down will help teams run better:As teams pass more often on 1st down, the effectiveness of play-action will suffer. But meanwhile, as defenses are forced to defend more against the pass, runs will become more successful.In other words, we'll see what's going on now with the Bears. When they tried to run first, Jay Cutler led the NFL in interceptions. When they have lately let him come out throwing, Cutler has his passer rating above 90 AND the Bears are also running better than they have since they went to the Super Bowl in 2006.

I haven't been worried about the Bears possibly playing an NFC title game in Atlanta because the Falcons have never scared me. I always thought the Saints were better, and maybe even the Packers, despite the Falcon's NFC-best record. When New Orleans won Monday night, that seemed to back up my contention. ESPN.com's Gregg Easterbrookexplains both how the Falcons began 11-2 and why they lost to the Saints: The used to pass on first down, and they stubbornly stuck with failed first-down runs Monday. He writes that Atlanta passes more on first down than any team in the NFL, but wrote that Atlanta ran 12 times for 23 yards on first down, against nine defenders stacked at the line, and passed 11 times for 108 yards on first down, counting scrambles and a pass interference penalty. Basically, the Falcons beat themselves. I can come across as anti-run, but the truth is I like for teams to run. I just think they run at the wrong times. As Easterbrook writes, teams should run on second and third down more and pass more on first down. I say they should pass more on first, by far the best down to pass on, and should also pass more on second-and-long, but should run far, far more often on third-and-medium -- especially when they plan to go for it on fourth down; the Jets for-sure should have run on third-and-3 at the start of the second half against the Bears since they knew they were going to go for it on fourth down. Advancednflstats.comwrites that first-down passes are 10-times as effective as first-down runs between the 20-yard lines (with one-tenth of an expected point per pass as opposed to one-100th for a run), and that passing more on first down will help teams run better:As teams pass more often on 1st down, the effectiveness of play-action will suffer. But meanwhile, as defenses are forced to defend more against the pass, runs will become more successful.In other words, we'll see what's going on now with the Bears. When they tried to run first, Jay Cutler led the NFL in interceptions. When they have lately let him come out throwing, Cutler has his passer rating above 90 AND the Bears are also running better than they have since they went to the Super Bowl in 2006.

Never miss a story

Choose the plan that's right for you.
Digital access or digital and print delivery.