Economics blog + Tax and spending | The Guardianhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog+politics/taxandspending
Indexen-gbGuardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2016Fri, 09 Dec 2016 15:40:29 GMT2016-12-09T15:40:29Zen-gbGuardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2016The Guardianhttps://assets.guim.co.uk/images/guardian-logo-rss.c45beb1bafa34b347ac333af2e6fe23f.pnghttps://www.theguardian.com
After Brexit, Philip Hammond can make a strong case for investmenthttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/aug/28/brexit-philip-hammond-autumn-statement-investment
<p>This year’s autumn statement, the new chancellor’s first, is a very big deal indeed</p><p>Autumn statements come and go. Like comets, they blaze across the political sky for a couple of weeks in November and December before disappearing into the inky darkness. By Christmas, they are largely forgotten.</p><p>This year will be different. For once, it matters what the Treasury cooks up and what would have been a rather mundane affair had George Osborne remained chancellor has become a very big deal indeed.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/aug/28/brexit-philip-hammond-autumn-statement-investment">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessPhilip HammondEconomic policyPoliticsUK newsBank of EnglandTax and spendingJohn Maynard KeynesSun, 28 Aug 2016 09:42:51 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/aug/28/brexit-philip-hammond-autumn-statement-investmentPhotograph: Yui Mok/PAPhotograph: Yui Mok/PALarry Elliott Economics editor2016-08-28T09:42:51ZMPs quiz Osborne on budget as poll says his approval rating never been lower - Politics livehttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-live
<p>Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including George Osborne being questioned by the Treasury committee about the budget</p><ul><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-live?page=with:block-56f3df6ee4b00fe383a170d9#block-56f3df6ee4b00fe383a170d9">Osborne’s satisfaction rating as chancellor never been lower, says poll</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-live?page=with:block-56f3e694e4b01def2864a304#block-56f3e694e4b01def2864a304">Osborne’s evidence to the Treasury committee - Summary</a></li></ul><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T16:02:59.650Z">4.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Even when people aren’t shouting at each other, they aren’t being encouraged to take action either.</p><p>Groups like Momentum now appear to be draining the very energy from our political process they claimed to be promoting, by encouraging the myth righteous bystanding is activism.</p><p>It’s been one of the worst weeks for the Conservatives since the election in terms of public opinion. Public reaction to the budget is in 2012 ‘omnishambles’ territory, and on some measures even worse, while also dragging David Cameron’s personal ratings to their lowest for three years. The drop in confidence in the government’s long-term economic plan – crucial to their election victory – is another cause for concern, but only if Labour can take advantage.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T15:44:24.081Z">3.44pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Stephen Crabb </strong>has made his first visit to a job centre since becoming work and pensions secretary, the Press Association reports.</p><p>Crabb, who replaced Iain Duncan Smith after his sudden resignation last week, met claimants and staff in Enfield, north London, where the Jobcentre Plus office deals with more than 20,000 customers at any one time. </p><p>He said: “It’s incredibly important to me to meet the jobcentre staff delivering our first-rate services, as well as those who are seeking to improve their employment prospects. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T15:26:13.663Z">3.26pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The PM has left this morning for the Canary Islands for a “short break with his family” and will be away until Wednesday, Downing Street has confirmed. We reported last week that he was going to Lanzarote, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/18/go-north-for-easter-hols-cameron-tells-britons-but-hes-off-to-lanzarote">despite having urged people to take holidays in the flood-hit north of England this Easter.</a> On Wednesday night <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12202655/David-Cameron-flies-to-Spain-after-a-tough-week-telling-his-own-MPs-he-needs-more-time-to-think.html">he told MPs at the 1922 committee that he felt like he needed “time to think”. </a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T15:22:36.973Z">3.22pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>This isn’t the first time Jeremy Corbyn has been ahead of David Cameron in Ipsos MORI’s satisfaction ratings. The archive of figures are<a href="https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/88/Political-Monitor-Satisfaction-Ratings-1997Present.aspx"> here,</a> and they show that Corbyn was ahead of Cameron on net satisfaction from September last year until December.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T15:08:22.377Z">3.08pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here is more from<a href="https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3713/George-Osbornes-satisfaction-ratings-equal-his-worst-ever-following-budget.aspx#gallery[m]/3/"> the Ipsos MORI poll.</a></p><p>It shows Jeremy Corbyn ahead of David Cameron on net satisfaction (the proportion satisfied with the way each is doing his job, minus those dissatisfied).</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T14:10:14.790Z">2.10pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are the main points from George Osborne’s evidence to the Treasury committee about the budget. It was a less combative hearing then normal, mainly because the Labour MP John Mann, the committee’s resident interrogative rottweiler, was not there, but nevertheless the questioning was substantive, and reasonably productive.</p><p>I think anybody listening to this will have to conclude that it is entirely possible that you will make further cuts to welfare in the autumn statement.</p><p>That is not the conclusion I would draw from listening to me.</p><p>I am sorry that Iain left the government, I worked with him over six years. It was always going to be a difficult relationship between the chancellor and the person in charge of the largest spending department. That is what the jobs require of us.</p><p>I think our exit from the EU would cause an economic shock, or a convulsive shock, as it’s been described recently, and that would have an impact on prices and GDP and the like.</p><p>That’s not just my judgment, that’s a judgment expressed by a whole range of independent observers of the British economy who have no skin in the game. </p><p>The Bank of England and the financial policy committee have identified potential systemic risks in the large increase in the buy-to-let market ... It is highly likely we will give the FPC powers over the buy-to-let market. It is possible we can do that later this year. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:56:37.372Z">12.56pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Tyrie is just winding up the session now. He thanks Osborne for coming, says he looks forward to seeing him in April and says that, although Osborne faced some tough questions, he did come into office having to deal with a record deficit.</p><p>This is from Reuters’ William James.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tyrie ends his committee's marathon grilling of George Osborne with the verbal equivalent of a friendly hug.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:55:09.740Z">12.55pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Ipsos MORI poll also shows that people think the budget is bad for them personally and, by a much bigger margin, bad for the country.</p><p>The chancellor’s poor performance in satisfaction ratings this month is mirrored by the public reaction to the budget proposals. When asked about the budget proposals specifically the poll finds:</p><p>Cutting disability benefits was especially unpopular with the public with 84% opposed to the proposal and just 13% in support of it. Even supporters of Mr Osborne’s own party show strong opposition with seven in ten (71%) Conservatives opposed to the plan and 22% in support of it. Despite a win with the sugar tax (69% supporting it and 26% opposed) half (49%) disagree that in the long term the government’s policies will improve the economy (43% believe they will).</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:43:46.886Z">12.43pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here is the Ipsos MORI chart showing George Osborne’s latest satisfaction rating.</p><p>One week following George Osborne’s budget announcement, Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor shows the chancellor’s satisfaction ratings have fallen compared to last month. Three in five (60%) say they are dissatisfied with the performance of Mr Osborne (up 14 points from February) compared to one in four (27%) who say they are satisfied (down 13 points). This equals his worst performance in March 2013. Mr Osborne still has the backing of most of his party with three in five (58%) Conservative supporters saying they are satisfied with the Chancellor (although 31% are dissatisfied).</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:40:53.238Z">12.40pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says leaving the EU would cause a “convulsive shock” which would have an impact on prices and GDP.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:34:45.321Z">12.34pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: The press has been briefed that this will be published in May.</em></p><p>Osborne says it will be before the purdah period. He will tell the committee when he has a date.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:27:54.962Z">12.27pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: You will be publishing a Treasury analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership. Will the OBR assess that?</em></p><p>No, says Osborne.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:27:18.375Z">12.27pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Do you accept that you drew the OBR into the EU referendum debate?</em></p><p>No, says Osborne.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:24:12.408Z">12.24pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Conservative <strong>Steve Baker</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: How confident are you that your productivity plans will work?</em></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Scary chart from <a href="https://twitter.com/resfoundation">@resfoundation</a>: <a href="https://twitter.com/OBR_UK">@OBR_UK</a> now assumes the financial crisis blew a permanent hole in productivity: <a href="https://t.co/ZUQm9ITCuC">pic.twitter.com/ZUQm9ITCuC</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:15:53.327Z">12.15pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Is it possible you might make further cuts to welfare at the autumn statement?</em></p><p>Osborne says he has no plans to do that.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:07:00.725Z">12.07pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: There are four ways you could plug the £4.4bn gap in the budget caused by the PIP cut: higher taxes, departmental spending cuts, welfare cuts, or higher borrowing. Which will you choose?</em></p><p>Osborne says he will announce this in his autumn statement.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:03:31.567Z">12.03pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne defends the idea of having a welfare cap.</p><p>Previously the Treasury would spend a great deal of time worrying about something like the Welsh Office budget, but doing nothing about the welfare budget, even though it is much, much larger.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T12:02:39.832Z">12.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Rachel Reeves </strong>goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Will you meet the welfare cap in any year in this parliament?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:58:30.513Z">11.58am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andrew Tyrie </strong>goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Wouldn’t it be better if you had carried on publishing your own distributional analysis in the form you did in the 2010-15 parliament?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:54:28.381Z">11.54am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Goodman turns to the IFS’s distributional impact of the budget.</p><p>Osborne says the IFS assumes that extra spending funded by borrowing is a win for families. If he borrowed £100bn and spent it on families, the IFS would score that as a win. But it would not be a win for them, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:47:48.398Z">11.47am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: You have to find the money to make up for the £1.3bn PIP U-turn. And there is another unexplained £300m from the business rates transfer. Will this come from further cuts, higher tax or extra borrowing?</em></p><p>Osborne says he does not accept her assessment on business rates.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:41:37.894Z">11.41am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: There are several areas were you have not said how cuts will be achieved. You have not said how departments will cut spending by £3.5bn. And another £2bn is coming from pensions.</em></p><p>Osborne says departments have been able to cut spending on this scale before.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:37:58.932Z">11.37am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Goodman says the reducation in business rates leads to an increase in the corporation tax take.</p><p>That means small businesses will get a £5.5bn cut, not a £7bn cut as Osborne said in his speech, she says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:35:16.298Z">11.35am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Helen Goodman</strong>, the Labour MP, goes next.</p><p>Osborne says the money allocated to local authorities in future years will reflect the amount lost from the cut in business rates.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:30:40.710Z">11.30am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Evening Standard <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/osborne-s-ratings-plunge-after-budget-and-corbyn-is-more-popular-than-pm-a3210916.html">has some bad new for Osborne today.</a></p><p>George Osborne’s ratings have plunged, according to exclusive polling taken before and after his disastrous eighth budget.</p><p>The full scale of the damage is revealed in Ipsos MORI research showing public hostility has grown towards the chancellor, his policies and even David Cameron ...</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:26:09.487Z">11.26am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Rachel Reeves,</strong> the Labour former shadow work and pensions secretary, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Duncan Smith said he did not want the PIP consultation to be part of the budget. He wanted to announce his plans after the budget. Was there a discussion about this?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:23:55.920Z">11.23am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Duncan Smith says he did not know about the PIP U-turn until he heard about it from the media.</em></p><p>Osborne says he thought he had made it clear after the budget that the government wanted time to get this right.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:23:09.027Z">11.23am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the relationship between the chancellor and the minister in charge of the biggest spending department will always be a difficult one.</p><p>But he is sorry that Duncan Smith has resigned.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne: "I'm sorry Iain left Government, always difficult relationship between Chancellor &amp; person running biggest spending department"</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:20:49.294Z">11.20am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Andrew Tyrie goes next. He raises Duncan Smith’s interview with Andrew Marr.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Last thing George Osborne wanted to hear from Andrew Tyrie: "can we return to Iain Duncan Smith's interview with Andrew Marr?"</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:18:31.271Z">11.18am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Stephen Crabb, the work and pensions secretary, said the government would not cut welfare spending. But the Treasury is just saying it has no plans for this. Which is it?</em></p><p>Osborne says the government will not seek further cuts. It has no further plans for welfare cuts. It will focus on implementing the cuts already announced.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:13:37.406Z">11.13am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: At one point did Iain Duncan Smith first raise concerns with you about your plans for Personal Independence Payments.</em></p><p>Osborne says he does not want to get into that.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:06:36.445Z">11.06am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Wes Streeting, </strong>the Labour MP, goes next.</p><p>He starts by saying when President Obama visits the UK, he won’t call Osborne Jeffrey<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22995007"> (a reference to this story)</a> but Bungle. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:04:08.020Z">11.04am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne hints disability cuts not off the table: 'Clearly if you are going to make reforms... you need to go about it in a better way'</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T11:02:15.995Z">11.02am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: The Bank of England has said the growth of the buy-to-let market is a risk to the economy. Do you have any views on whether to give the Bank of England powers over this?</em></p><p>Osborne says it is “highly likely” that he will give the Bank of England’s financial policy committee further powers to control the buy-to-let market.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:55:59.987Z">10.55am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: On the sugar tax, there has been talk of a legal challenge. What is the government’s position?</em></p><p>Osborne says many companies are trying to do that right thing, and reduce the sugar in their drinks, and that is to be applauded.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:50:24.099Z">10.50am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Chris Philp,</strong> a Conservative, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Why is it important to run a surplus?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:47:25.648Z">10.47am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Robert Chote, head of the OBR, thinks you are locking yourself in to quite arbitrary short-term changes. You changed your fiscal charter three times last year.</em></p><p>Osborne says he is willing to take difficult decisions to improve the public finances. The IMF recently praised the simplicity of his surplus rule, he says.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne seeking to make a virtue of responding quickly to the big adjustments from the OBR's downgrade of productivity</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:42:05.727Z">10.42am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andrew Tyrie</strong>, the Conservative chair of the committee, starts.</p><p>He says it was a “rather curious budget”.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:36:54.498Z">10.36am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne </strong>is about to give evidence to the Treasury committee about the budget.</p><p>You can watch the hearing <a href="http://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/420e7352-7d95-47c8-b8ed-1c8e2b09ac85">here.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:31:12.300Z">10.31am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here is a Guardian video from Donald Trump’s interview.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T10:21:19.256Z">10.21am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Sir Alan Duncan</strong>, the Conservative former international development secretary, is generally seen as one of the party’s more hardline Eurosceptics. Yet,<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12202394/Why-this-lifelong-Eurosceptic-is-now-voting-to-stay-in.html"> in an article in the Daily Telegraph,</a> he has announced that he had decided to vote for Britain to remain in the EU. He says he had expected to end up campaigning for Brexit but that on reflection he has decided leaving the EU would be “fraught with danger”.</p><p>The lure of Brexit is that it would deliver for the UK a tidy alternative to EU membership, and that restored self-government would empower our economic prospects and help insulate the UK from global difficulties. Our democracy would be purified, our border controls would solve the problem of immigration, and we would prosper as an economy untrammelled by others’ rules. The trouble is: I don’t think this is true ...</p><p>It is a fundamental tenet of Conservative thought that we are realists who take the world as we find it – and that we reject utopian philosophies which offer a path towards perfection. Some say that leaving the EU is no different to resigning from the local cricket club and that we can simply return the UK to the status quo ante. The language of this theoretical paradise has become the Marxism of the Right. It is unwise, and is fraught with danger.</p><p>For me, however, the most compelling arguments are political. Our withdrawal from the EU would do nothing to help arrest <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11943492/Warnings-over-resurgence-of-German-far-Right-movement-Pegida-sparked-by-refugee-crisis.html">the rise of the far Right in Germany</a>, prevent worrying developments in Turkey, or address economic pressures in Greece, Italy and Spain. We are all facing massive danger from the shores of the Mediterranean, with utter anarchy in Syria, fragile authority in Egypt, and a vacuum of power in Libya. Only politics can adequately address the deep challenges of the region ...</p><p>Whereas I used to think that our membership of the EU signified a loss of confidence in ourselves, I now think that leaving it would be an unforgivable expression of no confidence in our ability to affect the course of Europe’s future. We cannot shape that vision by looking in history’s rear-view mirror and opting to retrench.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T09:55:56.082Z">9.55am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Rob Wainwright,</strong> director of Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, told the Today programme this morning that he did not agree with Sir Richard Dearlove’s analyis. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-live?page=with:block-56f3af93e4b05b0ac72a6792#block-56f3af93e4b05b0ac72a6792">9.38am.) </a>He suggested that Dearlove did not appreciate how much things had changed since Dearlove left his post as head of MI6 in 2004. Wainwright said:</p><p>I certainly respect Sir Richard’s views but in the 10 years or so since he left office I have seen huge progress in the EU in building up a far stronger capability to fight terrorism and serious crime. The UK has very often been the driver of that work.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T09:47:58.707Z">9.47am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>On Channel 4 News last night <strong>Michael Fallon,</strong> the defence secretary, said he did not accept Sir Richard Dearlove’s analysis. (See<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-live?page=with:block-56f3af93e4b05b0ac72a6792#block-56f3af93e4b05b0ac72a6792"> 9.38am.) </a>He said:</p><p>The fact is, across Europe we do have these mechanisms now for sharing flight information, sharing intelligence about terrorists; movements, swapping data about them that enable all intelligence services across Europe to pool their efforts to try to keep a tab on them.</p><p>What is very clear to me as the defence secretary charged with helping to keep this country safe is that we should not be leaving international organisations or intelligence-sharing partnerships, that would be exactly the wrong thing to do. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T09:38:05.169Z">9.38am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>In the past it was never thought that national security was an important factor in the debate about EU membership but in recent months David Cameron and others campaigning for Britain to remain in have been making much of the argument that the country would be less safe if it left. At the launch of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign last year<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/12/stuart-rose-launches-pro-eu-campaign-britain-stronger-in-europe-politics-live?page=with:block-561b97e5e4b001d7f118d092#block-561b97e5e4b001d7f118d092"> security was the top story.</a></p><p>But an article by <strong>Sir Richard Dearlove,</strong> the former head of MI6, has knocked several holes in the Remain camp’s security case. <a href="http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/brexit-would-not-damage-uk-security">Writing in Prospect, </a>he says that the security cost of Brexit would be “low” and that in some respects being outside the EU could make Britain safer.</p><p>Whether one is an enthusiastic European or not, the truth about Brexit from a national security perspective is that the cost to Britain would be low.</p><p>Brexit would bring two potentially important security gains: the ability to dump the European convention on human rights—remember the difficulty of extraditing the extremist Abu Hamza of the Finsbury Park Mosque—and, more importantly, greater control over immigration from the European Union.</p><p>If a security source in Germany learns that a terrorist attack is being planned in London, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, Germany’s domestic intelligence service, is certainly not going to withhold the intelligence from MI5 simply because the UK is not an EU member.</p><p>In addition, though the UK participates in various European and Brussels-based security bodies, they are of little consequence: the Club de Berne, made up of European Security Services; the Club de Madrid, made up of European Intelligence Services; Europol; and the Situation Centre in the European Commission are generally speaking little more than forums for the exchange of analysis and views.</p><p>With the exception of Europol, these bodies have no operational capacity and with 28 members of vastly varying levels of professionalism in intelligence and security, the convoy must accommodate the slowest and leakiest of the ships of state.</p><p>Would Brexit damage our defence and intelligence relationship with the United States, which outweighs anything European by many factors of 10? I conclude confidently that no, it would not. The replacement of Trident, the access to overhead satellite monitoring capabilities, the defence exchanges that are hidden from public view, the UK-US co-operation over signals intelligence, the Central Intelligence Agency/Secret Intelligence Service/Federal Bureau of Investigation/MI5 liaison and much more would continue as before.</p><p>There would be disapproval of Brexit in Washington, and some disappointment too, but the practical consideration of living in a dangerous world and depending on true friends would win out. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2016-03-24T08:51:08.352Z">8.51am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>MPs recently spent three hours <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jan/18/uk-mps-debate-donald-trump-banned-from-uk-commons-live?page=with:block-569d3ec6e4b03e04102e16c3#block-569d3ec6e4b03e04102e16c3">debating whether the American presidential candidate <strong>Donald Trump </strong>should be banned from the UK,</a> so they can’t really complain if he chooses to reciprocate by expressing his own views on British matters. He has this morning, predicting that Britain will vote to leave the EU because of the “craziness” going on with immigration.</p><p>Trump made his comment in an interview with Good Morning Britain’s Piers Morgan. The first extract from the interview was shown yesterday, and the second this morning. The full 40-minute interview will be on ITV tomorrow night.</p><p>I think that Britain will separate from the EU. I think that maybe it’s time, especially in light of what’s happened with the craziness that is going on with immigration, with people pouring in all over the place I think that Britain will end up separating from the EU. That’s my opinion. I’m not endorsing it one way or the other.</p><p>There was such opposition from people that live in Great Britain, in the UK generally, in fact all over Europe, the people were incensed at the concept of me being banned for speaking really what they said was the truth.</p><p>And, as you know, that ban went nowhere, it shouldn’t have gone anywhere, it was a disgraceful thing but it went nowhere, but a lot of people - and I mean thousands and thousands of people - were tweeting saying you’re right, you’re right, Mr Trump, you are right, and so I don’t know what’s going on over there but I can tell you there is some unrest.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-live">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsGeorge OsborneBudgetBusinessTaxTax and spendingBenefitsBudget 2016Economic policyEconomicsMoneyDonald TrumpUS politicsPiers MorganUS newsEU referendum and BrexitFri, 25 Mar 2016 00:08:04 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/24/osborne-budget-treasury-committee-trump-vote-to-leave-eu-because-of-immigration-craziness-politics-livePhotograph: parliament TV/Parliament TVPhotograph: parliament TV/Parliament TVAndrew Sparrow2016-03-25T00:08:04ZUnder cover of storm clouds, Osborne plans stealth tax subterfugehttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/28/osborne-stealth-tax-subterfuge-storm-clouds
<p>While preserving tax rates of his core audience chancellor will ensure people pay extra without knowing he is to blame</p><p>Stealth tax enthusiast George Osborne is gearing up for more of the same subterfuge at his next <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/budget">budget</a>. With only a fortnight to go before he stands up in parliament to repeat his warning of gathering storm clouds and the even more fear-inducing cocktail of threats from a worsening global economy, he is morphing, if only in this respect, into <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/gordon-brown">Gordon Brown</a>, who always had a keen eye for a stealth tax.</p><p>Free from the constraints of coalition politics, the chancellor is adopting the same tactics as Brown, whose penchant for devising under-the-radar taxes to balance the books became a hallmark of his tenure at No 11.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/08/ifs-says-osborne-faces-tough-choices-to-meet-deficit-target">IFS says Osborne faces tough choices to hit deficit target</a> </p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/nov/25/local-government-councils-funding-gap-critical-budget-cuts-social-care-spending-review">Local councils warn of critical funding crisis as £18bn grant is scrapped</a> </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/28/osborne-stealth-tax-subterfuge-storm-clouds">Continue reading...</a>George OsborneBudgetPoliticsUK newsBusinessTax and spendingTaxEconomic policySun, 28 Feb 2016 13:02:34 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/28/osborne-stealth-tax-subterfuge-storm-cloudsPhotograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty ImagesPhillip Inman Economics correspondent2016-02-28T13:02:34ZGeorge Osborne's budget surplus plan is based on too many leaps of faithhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/feb/08/george-osbornes-budget-surplus-plan-is-based-on-too-many-leaps-of-faith
<p>The IFS says the chancellor’s plan to turn a deficit into a surplus is good politics but bad government, especially given the reliance on tax receipts and oil prices</p><p>The last time the government showed a determination to turn a budget deficit into a surplus it was the mid-1990s. Ken Clarke was the chancellor and it was, he said, the responsible thing to do in the wake of the debts racked up following the 1990 recession.</p><p>George Osborne also wants to achieve surplus, and one trend that could help him is the low oil price. If there was one overriding feature in the 1990s that kept the global economy growing and the tax receipts rolling in, apart from the giddy tech boom, it was oil at $12 a barrel.<br></p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/08/ifs-says-osborne-faces-tough-choices-to-meet-deficit-target">IFS says Osborne faces tough choices to hit deficit target</a> </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/feb/08/george-osbornes-budget-surplus-plan-is-based-on-too-many-leaps-of-faith">Continue reading...</a>Institute for Fiscal StudiesGeorge OsborneBusinessEconomicsPoliticsThinktanksTax and spendingBudget deficitOilCommoditiesMon, 08 Feb 2016 17:52:37 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/feb/08/george-osbornes-budget-surplus-plan-is-based-on-too-many-leaps-of-faithPhotograph: BP / KJETIL ALSVIK / HANDOUT/EPAPhotograph: BP / KJETIL ALSVIK / HANDOUT/EPAPhillip Inman Economics correspondent2016-02-08T17:52:37ZHunt says tax credit cuts will help to teach British to work as hard as Chinese - Conservative conference livehttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live
<p>Rolling coverage of the events at the Conservative party conference in Manchester, including George Osborne’s speech</p><ul><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-56122725e4b02d70c46aa40a">George Osborne’s morning interviews - Summary</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-56125f59e4b0380f181ef8ac">Osborne’s speech - Snap verdict</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-561284b8e4b0bfc58dd30d25">Hunt says tax credit cuts will help teach British to work as hard as Chinese</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-5612a549e4b04d4f86f72e52">Summary</a></li></ul><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T16:36:43.317Z">5.36pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T16:25:25.418Z">5.25pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>It’s unfair to pick on a Freudian slip, especially one by a rather promising new MP, so apologies to <strong>Lucy Frazer</strong>. But when she ended her remarks to a Policy Exchange fringe meeting on low income squeezed middle voters by saying the Tories could win many victories ‘if we see that people are on our side’ (I suspect she meant ‘if people see we are on their side’) she inadvertently put her finger on the problem in Manchester. </p><p>The Tories know they have a historic opportunity to reach C2 voters who don’t like what Jeremy Corbyn has to say on defence or immigration but are suspicious of Tory economic policy. What they’ve not quite grasped is that announcing you’re on working people’s side, while staying in your own comfort zone, isn’t enough; you have to visibly move towards them or it looks like you don’t mean it. With tax credit cuts for those people looming, the policy hasn’t yet caught up with the new political positioning.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T16:22:05.624Z">5.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here are three good articles about George Osborne’s speech.</p><p>It would be an error for Labour to merely dismiss this as empty rhetoric. Rather, it must craft a positive and relevant vision that overpowers Osborne’s. And as he woos the 9.3 million who voted Labour, it should ponder what it is doing to appeal to the two million more who voted Conservative. As Osborne showed today, a good start is to stop insulting them.</p><p>What Mr Osborne is saying, then, is: allow the failing places to fail, but help people move to the boomtowns. Mothball Wolverhampton, Blackpool and Great Yarmouth and make it easier for Leeds, Milton Keynes and Cambridge (not to mention London and Manchester) to build bypasses, new railway stations, housing estates, tramlinks and cycle lanes. Why? Britain’s strength lies in city-based clusters of service industries, many employing university graduates; such places, in other words, possess the alchemical mix that allows them to capture the advantages of globalisation. Where places are failing it is usually because they are too small, too out of the way or too low-skilled. In government Labour’s answer was to let the boomtowns boom, cream off the benefit in taxes and pass it down to places without an invite to the party. Mr Osborne’s answer is different: work with the grain of economic change, not against it. Pump up the places doing well and help people in the places doing less well to relocate there and throw themselves into the forwards churn of globalisation, rather than merely compensating them for it. This carries the additional benefit of raising the national growth rate (research suggests that the biggest single reason for the gap in GDP per capita between America and Europe is that the former has more big cities); in an interview with <em>Prospect</em>, Jim O’Neill, a former banker now in the chancellor’s ministerial team, estimated that focusing on the big cities would “translate into an additional 0.2 per cent of GDP growth on average per year up to 2030.” Much of the broader thinking behind the move is articulated <a href="http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/publications/category/item/cities-unlimited">in this paper from Policy Exchange</a> (Mr Osborne’s favourite think-tank) in 2008.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Photo du Jour: George Osborne sees newly electrified Manchester - Liverpool line before speech By Stefan Rousseau/PA <a href="http://t.co/FxlhsnCdLa">pic.twitter.com/FxlhsnCdLa</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T16:20:15.163Z">5.20pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Ben Chu</strong>, the Independent’s deputy business editor, has posted a critique of Jeremy Hunt’s comment about the Chinese on Twitter.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thoughts from me on Jeremy Hunt's comments about getting Brits to work as hard as the Chinese <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/chinesewhispers?src=hash">#chinesewhispers</a>: <a href="http://t.co/sAzbJEBrmb">pic.twitter.com/sAzbJEBrmb</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T16:11:33.530Z">5.11pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>In her speech to the conference this afternoon <strong>Amber Rudd</strong>, the energy secretary, announced that the government will work with Ofgem and Citizens Advice to strengthen the Energy Ombudsman so that it can address systemic problems in the energy industry, as well as the individual complaints it deals with now.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T16:06:57.241Z">5.06pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is some more reaction to George Osborne’s business rates decentralisation announcement.</p><p>From Gary Porter, chair of the<strong> Local Government Association</strong></p><p>Today’s announcement by the chancellor is great news for councils and shows that the Government has listened to the arguments set out by local government. The LGA has long-argued that the current system of business rates needed reform so councils could effectively support small businesses and boost high streets. </p><p> Councils have been hugely restricted in their ability to introduce local discounts with government setting the charge and keeping half of business rates income. With greater local control, councils will have flexibility to reduce business rates for the types of shops and businesses that residents want in their high streets and neighbourhoods.</p><p>Today George Osborne has proved his credentials as a devolutionary chancellor. Decentralising business rates could mean greater independence for councils across the country, the opportunity for many of them to unleash their economic potential locally. Until very recently, Treasury officials were briefing that decentralising business rates was out of the question, so this represents a huge step towards a more localised tax system in line with other developed economies.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T15:54:16.726Z">4.54pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>ICM has released some new polling figures on EU membership. The results are:</p><p>Remain: 42%</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T15:49:02.480Z">4.49pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Liz Truss</strong>, the environment secretary, said in her speech to the conference that free markets help to preserve the environment.</p><p> It’s free markets that enable people to pursue their dreams and create prosperity.</p><p> It’s access to information and free speech that helps us understand the world and make progress. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T15:37:58.989Z">4.37pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s another quote from the <strong>Jeremy Hunt</strong> fringe meeting. He suggested that those reliant on tax credits and benefits lack dignity and self-respect.</p><p>Dignity is not just about how much money you have got ... Officially children are growing up in poverty if there is an income in that family of less than £16,500. What the Conservatives say is how that £16,500 is earned matters. It matters if you are earning that yourself, because if you are earning it yourself you are independent and that is the first step towards self-respect. If that £16,500 is either a high proportion or entirely through the benefit system you are trapped. It is about pathways to work, pathways to independence. It is about creating a pathway to independence, self-respect and dignity.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T15:26:40.483Z">4.26pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s some footage of Boris Johnson being pelted with balls by protesters as he arrived at the Conservative conference.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T15:22:46.205Z">4.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Anoosh Chakelian</strong> at the Staggers says<a href="http:// http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/10/jeremy-hunt-tax-credit-cuts-should-make-britain-work-hard-asians-and"> Jeremy Hunt has come up “the dodgiest defence of the tax credit cuts so far”.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T15:22:30.671Z">4.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Conservative party must not move too far into the centre ground in response to Jeremy Corbyn’s victory in the Labour leadership election, former Tory defence secretary <strong>Liam Fox </strong>has said.</p><p>Speaking at a fringe event at the Conservative party conference in Manchester, focusing on how the Tories should respond to the new Labour leader, Fox said: “Nature abhors a vacuum and it’s always rapidly filled.”</p><p>One of my worries about Corbyn is that it leads to a complacency in the [Tory] party that begins with them saying ‘we don’t have to reduce the deficit so quickly, we don’t have to do all these things as quickly because they’re a bit unpopular and a bit painful’. The next stage of that is [to say] ‘well, we’ll vote against our own party if it looks like [a policy] might not be popular because there’s no real opposition out there.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:57:51.815Z">3.57pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The TUC says the government’s tax credit cuts are “an astonishing attack on working people”. <strong>Frances O’Grady</strong>, the TUC general secretary, made the comment in a statement giving the TUC’s overall reaction to George Osborne’s speech.</p><p>The government’s cuts to tax credits are an astonishing attack on working people. They are so severe that, even with a higher minimum wage and higher tax threshold, most low-paid families will be much worse off. But despite people from his own party urging the chancellor to think again, he has refused to listen.</p><p>The chancellor has finally recognised infrastructure investment as the priority it should have been five years ago. But if he keeps cutting public investment, then it will all be pie in the sky. We need a properly capitalised National Investment Bank to ensure the infrastructure that Britain needs gets built.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:53:18.274Z">3.53pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Labour MP <strong>Graham Allen</strong> has tweeted about Jeremy Hunt’s comment about the tax credit cuts.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jeremy Hunt"Tax credit cut is an important cultural signal"gets 2 finger signal from 5,500 constituents in Nottm north who lose £1,000 plus</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:53:09.722Z">3.53pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>J</strong><strong>ohn McDonnell,</strong> the shadow chancellor, has now put out a statement about George Osborne’s plans to decentralise business rates. He is not ruling the idea out, but he has concerns about it.</p><p>More needs to be done on business rates and we’ll look at the detail of the reforms set out today. But people will rightly look at the record of George Osborne under whom business rates rose by around £1,500 in the last Parliament. In particular we need to ensure that the right safeguards are in place so that poorer areas of the country do not lose out on vital revenue.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:47:24.831Z">3.47pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Spectator’s <strong>James Forsyth</strong> was also at the Jeremy Hunt fringe meeting. <a href="http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/jeremy-hunt-says-new-junior-doctors-contracts-are-essential-for-seven-day-nhs/">In a blog</a> he says that Hunt also opined on how people are going to have to get used to living with their elderly relatives.</p><p>Perhaps, the most striking part of what Hunt said was his futurology. He warned that on current trends, Britain’s aging population would require 100 new care homes a month to open between now and 2020. He argued that this was simply not possible and so it needed to be made easier for elderly relatives to move in with their families. He indicated that making this easier would be a significant part of social care reform.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:47:14.367Z">3.47pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>My colleague <strong>Alan Travis</strong> has been looking at the new volume of Charles Moore’s authorised biography of Margaret Thatcher. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/05/margaret-thatcher-could-have-been-brought-down-by-westland-affair"> It says she “could have been brought down” over the Westland affair as her hands were ”not entirely clean”, he reports. </a>It also says <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/05/mark-thatcher-business-dealings-leave-uk-margaret-thatcher-biography">Thatcher’s son Mark was in effect forbidden to live in Britain after being repeatedly warned that he was damaging his mother’s reputation</a>.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:36:41.134Z">3.36pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>One problem that George Osborne and others have when they try to argue that most people will not lose out from the tax credit cuts is that (when other changes are taken into account too) is that they are up against the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The IFS has repeatedly highlighted how many people will lose out, and <strong>Paul Johnson</strong>, the IFS director, was at it again on the World at One.</p><p>This is what he told the programme.</p><p>It’s very clear that the average family currently receiving tax credits will be significantly worse off, even when you take account of the introduction of the higher national minimum wage. </p><p>There are different groups of people on tax credits at the moment, quite a lot of them are on the minimum wage but actually quite a lot are earning more than the minimum wage, in particular if they’re working relatively short hours or if they have several children. There’s not actually an enormously close overlap between those on the minimum wage and those on tax credits, so the gainers from the minimum wage are a very different group on average to the people losing from tax credits. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:26:35.776Z">3.26pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Jeremy Hunt’s comment about tax credits (see<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-561284b8e4b0bfc58dd30d25"> 3.11pm)</a> is likely to do down badly with his Tory colleagues because they have been trying hard to stop the tax credit cuts becoming the story of the conference.</p><p>This is <strong>Dave Prentis</strong>, the Unison general secretary, said about the issue earlier.</p><p>The government is on the back foot over tax credits and ministers know it. They keep saying that families will be better off, but figures published by the House of Commons Library, and a host of other organisations, tell a very different story.</p><p>The reality is that the incomes of almost three million working households will take a huge hit next April as the tax credits they rely on to get through each month are taken away.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:22:20.810Z">3.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-conference-speech-verdict-chancellor?CMP=share_btn_tw">Four Comment is Free writers - Matthew d’Ancona, Jonathan Freedland, Anne Perkins and Tom Clark - have delivered their verdict here on the George Osborne speech.</a></p><p>Here’s an extract from Jonathan’s piece.</p><p>“Power to the people,” he cried out, daring an echo of Citizen Smith that would have brought derision on Jeremy Corbyn had he tried it. He was proclaiming a “devolution revolution”, invoking the 19th-century era of municipal muscle. He went further, lauding the activism and enterprise, the constant building, of the Victorian age. He had changed, he said. No longer obsessed with restraining government, now he could see its potential to do good. He wants his party to match its 19th-century forebears in engineering, in infrastructure, in building. It seems the ambition of George Osborne is unbounded.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:11:53.635Z">3.11pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is the full quote from <strong>Jeremy Hunt</strong> about how the tax credit cuts are partly about teaching the British that they need to work as hard as the Chinese.</p><p>We have to proceed with these tax credit changes because they are a very important cultural signal. We want this to be one of the most successful countries in the world in 20, 30, 40 years’ time. There’s a pretty difficult question that we have to answer which is essentially: are we going to be a country that is prepared to work hard in the way that Asian economies are prepared to work hard, in the way that Americans are prepared to work hard? And that is about creating culture where work is at the heart of our success.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T14:02:11.551Z">3.02pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Jeremy Hunt</strong>, the health secretary, has been speaking at two fringe events organised by the Times and Reform at which he roamed beyond his health brief to talk about tax credits, public service cuts and the wider political scene. He said:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:46:30.778Z">2.46pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Tony Travers</strong>, the academic and local government expert, is on BBC News now. He says George Osborne’s announcement is quite radical.</p><p>It will create an incentive for regions to get an elected mayor, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:33:05.863Z">2.33pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/05/osborne-to-allow-local-councils-to-keep-26bn-raised-from-business-rates">Here is Nicholas Watt’s story about the Osborne speech. </a>And here’s how it starts.</p><p>George Osborne has announced the biggest transfer of power from central to local government in recent history by allowing councils to retain all the money they raise from business rates – a total of £26bn.</p><p>In the most dramatic move in his bid to devolve power from Whitehall as he creates a “northern powerhouse”, the chancellor will allow councils to decide how to spend the revenue and to lower rates to attract new business.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:30:27.500Z">2.30pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-workers-2000-year-better-off?CMP=share_btn_tw">My colleague Larry Elliott has been fact-checking George Osborne’s claim that families will be on average £2,000 a year better off under government policies.</a> Larry is not impressed. How did Osborne come to that conclusion, he asks. “By throwing in everything and by blurring the distinction between those gaining and losing from the changes.”</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:21:49.423Z">2.21pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>David Gauke</strong>, the Treasury minister, is on BBC News now. He points out that city-wide mayors will only be able to use the new power to introduce a new infrastructure tax - an extra 2p on the business rate - if they have the support of a majority of business members on the local enterprise partnership.</p><p>That means, in practice, that local business will have a veto over any proposal to levy this new tax.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:15:37.218Z">2.15pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The <strong>Ukip</strong> take on George Osborne’s speech is quite similar to the Daily Mail’s. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-561246dfe4b06bd936f9cdce">10.52am.) </a>This is from Andrew Charalambous, Ukip’s housing and environment spokesman.</p><p>The chancellor has once again failed to announce any kind of meaningful set of policies designed to make brownfield investment more attractive than greenfield. The Tories who once promised to save the British countryside have consistently proved that they have no such intention. Neither do they have the ideas or wisdom to spur the UK towards a much needed brownfield revolution.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:12:47.078Z">2.12pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Len McCluskey</strong>, the Unite general secretary, has criticised George Osborne for not addressing issues like tax credits in his speech.</p><p>Chancellor George Osborne’s speech to his party conference failed to tackle the issue of a faltering recovery; the looming swingeing cuts to working tax credits; the ballooning of the national debt; and the fact this government created the longest fall in real living standards since the 1870s.</p><p>Osborne continues to peddle his snake oil but the reality is that he has made a clear and heartless choice to make the poor pay through slashing the working tax credits while giving the rich a handout. The combined cost of his cuts in inheritance tax and corporation tax from the this summer was £3.415m, which is enough not to make any cuts to in work support. So he has made a deliberate choice to make millions of working people over £1,000 worse off, while a few thousand millionaires get to hold onto their wealth. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T13:04:53.208Z">2.04pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The <strong>Institute of Directors </strong>has welcomed the business rates decentralisation. But that is partly because it is hoping that this will lead to business rates going down, its statement suggests. This is from Simon Walker, the IoD director general.</p><p>We hope this new deal will pave the way for councils to use these new powers to attract businesses and regenerate high-streets. While businesses support devolution, they will not stand for local politicians using it as an excuse to hike taxes. More than half of IoD members were concerned devolution would lead to higher taxes. Councils must avoid the temptation to increase rates to raise revenues, and instead compete to attract businesses to the area, which will bring jobs and wealth.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:56:47.629Z">1.56pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is <strong>Richard Murphy</strong>, the tax campaigner who is now offering policy advice to Jeremy Corbyn, has responded to Osborne’s devolution plans on Twitter.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne unleashes tax competition within the UK: winner will be business. The losers? All who rely on council services. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cpc15?src=hash">#cpc15</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne’s new freedom to set business rates is, I note, downward only unless there’s a mayor. Destroying local government in giant leaps</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:46:43.770Z">1.46pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>IPPR North</strong>, a left-leaning thinktank, has welcomed George Osborne’s decision to decentralise business rates, but warned that steps will need to be taken to protect poorer areas. This is from its director, Ed Cox.</p><p>George Osborne should be applauded for taking the devolution agenda into a new bold frontier by giving local areas new powers over business rates.</p><p>The real prize of the devolution agenda is for local areas to have powers over how they collect, raise and spend revenues and this is an important first step towards that goal ...</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:42:33.585Z">1.42pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>John McDonnell</strong>, the shadow chancellor, has issued his response to George Osborne’s speech. Here it is in full. He does not say anything about the business rates reform.</p><p>George Osborne spoke for 30 minutes and didn’t mention Redcar once. This is a Tory chancellor who doesn’t live in the real world.</p><p>He spoke of slaying dragons more than he spoke of how working people in the north east, who feel abandoned by this Tory government, are seeing their industry and way of life under attack.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:36:25.265Z">1.36pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>And here are more details about how the new system will be introduced from a Tory briefing note.</p><p>The established transfers will be there on day one, but thereafter, the growth in revenue will be kept in that local authority.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:23:56.943Z">1.23pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-unveils-devolution-revolution"> the Treasury news release with more details of George Osborne’s plans to given councils full control of business rates.</a> It says:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:15:32.672Z">1.15pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Willie Bain,</strong> the former Labour MP, says devolving power over business rates represents another Labour idea that George Osborne has lifted.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne adopts another Labour idea with partial devolution of business rates in Eng but will councils take big hit in CSR next month?</p><p>[Ed Balls] will also pledge that a Labour Treasury will allow city and county regions which come together in combined authorities to keep 100 per cent of extra business rates revenue generated by additional growth. They will then be able to invest this to support further business growth in their regions.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:05:53.936Z">1.05pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is some reaction from journalists to the business rates announcement.</p><p>From the Economist’s<strong> Jeremy Cliffe</strong></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The logic of Osborne's housing &amp; biz rates policies: let failing places fail rather than propping them up; help residents move to boomtowns.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Interesting to see how business responds to abolition of uniform business rate. In past has been worried about councils mikiing them.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">George Osborne's announcement councils that will be able to keep 100% of biz rate take is worth at least £2.75 billion extra for London.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T12:02:59.671Z">1.02pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The academic <strong>Gerry Hassan</strong> says there was some Nye Bevan in George Osborne’s speech too.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Osborne?src=hash">#Osborne</a> plagiarised: "We have been the dreamers, we have been the sufferers, now we are the builders." Nye Bevan in 1945 election. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CPC15?src=hash">#CPC15</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:58:41.573Z">12.58pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Lib Dems point out that George Osborne’s announcement is the culmination of<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-paves-the-way-for-reform-of-business-rates"> a review of business rates announced by Danny Alexander, the then chief secretary to the Treasury, shortly before the election.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:55:47.510Z">12.55pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>More from the background briefing.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Asked if Osborne business rate announcement will lead to councils/cityregions trying to grab trade from each other, Treasury source: "Yes"</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:54:02.506Z">12.54pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Tory sources have given more information about the proposal to let cities with mayors levy a new infrastructure charge. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-56125df9e4b0380f181ef8a5">12.26am.)</a> They say mayors will be allowed to raise business rates by up to 2p in the pound.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:49:53.466Z">12.49pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andy Burnham</strong>, the shadow home secretary, says there is a contradiction at the heart of George Osborne’s speech.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big contradiction at heart of Osborne speech. Says wants to close North-South divide. But then announces taxation reform that will widen it.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:42:07.065Z">12.42pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne’s speech - Snap verdict: </strong>In the hall George Osborne’s speech seemed to fall a bit flat, but that is because no one in history has ever given an exciting speech about local government finance, and yet, bravely, Osborne chose to put business rates reform at the heart of his address to the conference. In a speech like this it is common for politicians to over-hype their announcements, to pretend that they are more important than they really are, but this was a genuine biggie. Osborne called it “the biggest transfer of power to local government in living memory”, and that seems fair. The implications are considerable - and potentially worrying for areas with little business revenue - and I will be covering reaction and analysis as it comes in.</p><p>Otherwise? It was striking how little there was about the general state of the economy in the speech, and Osborne ignored the tax credits problem entirely, even though it is becoming one of the stories of the conference. Instead we got a thoughtful overview that will do nothing to dispel claims Osborne is building himself up as a future prime minister. As well as a hint of Ronald Reagan (see<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-5612575be4b06bd936f9ce33"> 11.58am)</a>, there was some Thatcher in his home-owning, share-owning democracy rhetoric. But the business rates reforms actually represent a rolling back of a key Thatcherite nationalisation, and it was interesting to note too how much effort he put into appealing to Labour voters. (See 12pm.)</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:29:48.453Z">12.29pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>And here’s Osborne’s peroration.</p><p>We live in this great prosperous, peaceful, political democracy.</p><p>Precisely because those who came before us did their job.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:26:52.493Z">12.26pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says cities with mayors will be able to levy a new infrastructure tax too.</p><p>And for those big cities with elected mayors, like London, Manchester and now Sheffield, I will go even further.</p><p>Provided they have the support of the local business community, these mayors will be able to add a premium to the rates to pay for new infrastructure and build for their cities’ future.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:24:06.341Z">12.24pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>And he adds another important detail - the uniform business rate will be abolished.</p><p>And to help local people do that I want to make another announcement today.</p><p>We’re going to abolish the uniform business rate entirely.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:22:36.116Z">12.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne explains how this will work.</p><p>Right now, we collect much more in business rates than we give back in the main grant.</p><p>So we will phase out this local government grant altogether.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:21:39.908Z">12.21pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne announces he is letting councils keep the revenue from business rates.</p><p>But we can go much, much further, here in the north and around the country.</p><p>While everyone knows this country has to live within its means - and that means savings in local as well as national government - I want to make sure that as we make these necessary savings we use this moment to undertake far-reaching reform.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:20:03.907Z">12.20pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>That’s why I am so committed to the Northern Powerhouse.</p><p>I’m throwing everything I’ve got at it.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:19:17.130Z">12.19pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne explains his commitment to the northern powerhouse concept. And he says he has changed in the last five years; he has become more aware of the power of government.</p><p>There’s one other problem our country faces that is so deep-seated, and so difficult that no government has really tried to solve it before.</p><p>And that’s the gap between north and south, between London and the rest.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:17:23.230Z">12.17pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the EU must change too.</p><p>It’s because we’re not afraid to confront the big issues that we’ve taken on reform in the European Union.</p><p>I don’t want the continent that gave us Isaac Newton and Leonardo da Vinci and Marie Curie, to say we’ve given up on the future.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:16:35.155Z">12.16pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says his new national infrastructure commission will start work today.</p><p>Some stand on the sidelines.</p><p>Some want to knock things down.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:15:25.663Z">12.15pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne announces plans for British Wealth Funds.</p><p>We are going to find new ways to fund the British infrastructure that drives our productivity.</p><p>At the moment, we have 89 different local government pension funds with 89 sets of fees and costs. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:14:04.863Z">12.14pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to housing.</p><p>We’ll give housing association tenants the right to buy.</p><p>We’ve had enough of people who own their own home lecturing others why they can’t own one too.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:12:48.043Z">12.12pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to infrastructure. Elizabeth Gaskell wrote her novel Cranford in his Tatton constituency, and it is about opposition to a railway.</p><p>And today, there are some people in my constituency who want to stop our new high-speed railway.</p><p>I respect their opposition – but I also respectfully disagree.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:11:08.646Z">12.11pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says it is disappointing that Labour cannot give the Tories credit for measures that promote social justice.</p><p>I’ll always pay tribute to the role the Labour movement played in building the NHS and establishing rights in the workplace.</p><p>But that sits alongside the equally proud story of Conservative social justice.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:09:30.742Z">12.09pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne describes going to a job centre the last time he was in Manchester.</p><p>It was exciting hearing people talk about finding work, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:08:01.172Z">12.08pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to Jeremy Corbyn’s plan to consider the case for quantitative easing.</p><p>The British people have heard the argument that the deficit doesn’t matter and they’ve rejected it.</p><p>They’ve listened to politicians who forgot to mention the deficit, and they’ve rejected them too.</p><p>Mind you, I’d better be careful not to disagree with Jeremy Corbyn about absolutely everything or else he’ll invite me to join his Shadow Cabinet.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:05:32.422Z">12.05pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne defends aid spending.</p><p>Some people question our commitment to the aid budget but with millions fleeing war zones, and a crisis in Europe, I’m not prepared to cut it.</p><p>I want to spend our aid better so it helps the most vulnerable closer to their homes.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:04:31.409Z">12.04pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to today’s announcement about the sale of Lloyds shares.</p><p>With Labour the banks went bust - we’re fixing them.</p><p>With Labour the debt soared - we’re going to bring it down.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:03:27.433Z">12.03pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the Tories are the builders.</p><p>To borrow from an American President, we choose to take on these things not because they’re easy, but because they’re hard.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:02:15.871Z">12.02pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the Tories have shifted the terms of the national debate.</p><p>We’ve established the idea that government can’t go on spending money it hasn’t got.</p><p>The idea that businesses need to be competitive and make profits to create jobs.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T11:00:39.237Z">12.00pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the Tories are working for working people, including for people who voted Labour.</p><p>He says the party has to win over these people.</p><p>They want security and opportunity, but they didn’t quite feel able to put their trust in us. </p><p>We’ve got to understand their reservations.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:58:31.167Z">11.58am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne changes tone.</p><p>But, friends, it is precisely in our hour of greatest success that I choose to come here to deliver a warning.</p><p>A warning for us all to heed.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:56:19.094Z">11.56am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne thanks David Cameron for his personal support.</p><p>There were moments when lots of people had doubts whether our plans would work moments, as I was well aware, when people had doubts about me.</p><p>But one person always backed me in private and in public, and never wavered in their support.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:54:53.711Z">11.54am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne praises the activists for their work in the election.</p><p>And he deploys an Edstone joke.</p><p>And I’ve been asked to pass on a special thanks.</p><p>From the maintenance team at Downing Street.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:54:05.896Z">11.54am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>And what the British people said to us in May couldn’t have been clearer:</p><p>We elect you to do a job.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:53:07.530Z">11.53am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he was not far from here on the night of the election, when the exit poll was announced. He was waiting to go to his count at the Macclesfield leisure centre.</p><p>At these moments politicians are powerless. It is in the hands of the British people, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:51:37.108Z">11.51am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he is proud to be the first Conservative chancellor in a Conservative government addressing a Conservative conference for 18 years.</p><p>And if 12 months ago he had said the MP for Morley and Outwood would have been introducing him, someone would have called security.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:49:54.191Z">11.49am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne </strong>is coming on stage now.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:47:55.607Z">11.47am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Jenkyns says, as a northern, she is delighted that Osborne is creating a northern powerhouse.</p><p>Osborne has rescued the economy, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:45:59.844Z">11.45am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andrea Jenkyns</strong>, the Tory MP who beat Ed Balls in Morley and Outwood, is introducing George Osborne.</p><p>She says she campaigned for two years to win the seat.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:44:25.569Z">11.44am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne</strong>, the chancellor, will be giving his speech shortly.</p><p>The Mail’s Andrew Pierce says in part it will be a job application.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">George Osborne's conference speech will not be just about the economy but why he is Cameron's natural successor</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:42:18.250Z">11.42am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>In his speech to the Tory conference <strong>John Whittingdale </strong>said that the BBC should no longer be allowed to regulate itself.</p><p>Some I have no doubt are in this hall today. And I know from the many letters and conversations that I have had that you have sometimes felt that the BBC has not always been as fair or as impartial as it should. Although the BBC are right to point out that it is a complaint often voiced by other parties too.</p><p>But what is important is that the public should have confidence that complaints are examined independently and carefully. And that it is no longer the case that if you make a complaint against the BBC, the decision on whether it is justified is taken by the BBC.</p><p>The pace of technological change is growing ever faster. In 1983, when I accompanied Margaret Thatcher on her election tour, I was put in charge of the Mobile Phone. There was nothing very mobile about it. It was the size of a brick with a handle. And we soon discovered that journalists in a car behind the battlebus could tune their radio to listen in.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:25:17.479Z">11.25am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4576275.ece">In the Times (paywall) Sam Coates says ministers are considering measures to help those affected by the cuts to tax credits. </a>Here’s an excerpt from his story.</p><p>[David Cameron] rejected calls from his MPs for a rethink of the policy in the autumn statement. “No, we think the changes we put forward are right,” he told <em>The Andrew Marr Show</em> on BBC One. </p><p> However, two cabinet ministers told <em>The Times</em> that the government was likely to offer more help to the working poor so long as it was not presented as a U-turn or watering down of the plan. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:22:35.389Z">11.22am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here are the key points from the speech from <strong>Sajid Javid</strong>, the business secretary.</p><p>Now there are those from Labour who describe me as a class traitor.</p><p>Len McCluskey says I’m a vampire - sucking the life from worker’s rights. </p><p>I started my life living above the family shop. </p><p>Business has always been part of my life.</p><p>Being pro-business does not mean that you turn a blind eye to bad practice.</p><p>Whether you’re a bank rigging interest rates, a car manufacturer cheating on emissions, or a company not paying your fair share of tax - be warned; we will come after you.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:14:43.052Z">11.14am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>My colleague <strong>Patrick Wintour</strong> has written<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/05/lord-adonis-coup-osborne-not-labour-defection"> a good analysis of George Osborne’s coup in hiring Lord Adonis to run the national infrastructure commission.</a> Here’s an excerpt.</p><p>[Adonis’s] philosophy is brilliantly summated by himself in the current issue of Prospect, arguing often essential reforms are simple, and too often simple and easy become muddled in public policy. “If simple reforms are controversial and difficult to implement because they radically challenge the status quo then politicians tend to default or waffle, half-measures of complex tweaks of the status quo, achieving little. The inaction or avoiding action, can last decades.”</p><p>He is not a half-measures man. Not surprisingly with his record of practical action he has been in high demand – chairing Crossrail 2 and then being appointed to the board of Network Rail.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T10:03:01.701Z">11.03am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is some Twitter reaction to George Osborne’s announcement about the Lloyds share sale.</p><p>From<strong> John McDonnell</strong>, the shadow chancellor</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Not many people losing £1300 a year in tax credits who will be looking forward to buying Lloyd's shares.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lloyds Bank shares to be offered cut-price to the public <a href="http://t.co/parF3Hj4nZ">http://t.co/parF3Hj4nZ</a> Increasing inequality inexorably</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No -the government is selling to SOME people at a discount shares in a bank that currently ALL taxpayers own <a href="https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1">@JuliaHB1</a> Note subtle emphasis</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T09:54:26.835Z">10.54am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The queue jokes keep coming. (See<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-5612429ae4b02d70c46aa463"> 10.34am.)</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A lot of stability and security at Tory conference but not much opportunity to get in. Massive static queues outside.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">First case of trench foot reported in Tory conference queue as latecomers join it near Oldham</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T09:52:33.611Z">10.52am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Tory press aren’t being particularly helpful to the Tories at the moment. The Sun is campaigning hard against the tax credit cuts. (See<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-561236f0e4b02d70c46aa42f"> 9.40am.) </a>And here is the first paragraph of <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3259937/Let-s-start-building-says-Osborne-Chancellor-vows-axe-planning-rules-drive-one-million-new-homes.html#ixzz3ngb90jG3 ">the Daily Mail’s story about the national infrastructure commission.</a></p><p>George Osborne will declare war on the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/conservatives/index.html">Tory </a>shires today as he outlines plans to fast-track infrastructure projects across Britain.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T09:45:29.337Z">10.45am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The conference proceedings have started, and <strong>Nick Boles</strong>, the skills minister, is leading a session on apprenticeships. He started with a joke about yesterday’s protest.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Hello, everyone. I'm Nick Boles, the minister for skills, although my friends call me Tory Scum." Nick Boles <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CPC15?src=hash">#CPC15</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T09:40:56.382Z">10.40am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Frank Field</strong>, the Labour former welfare minister, has responded to George Osborne’s Today interview this morning, and what Osborne said about the tax credit cuts. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-56122725e4b02d70c46aa40a">9.30am.)</a> He says Osborne is launching “a dive-bomb attack on Britain’s strivers from April until 2020.”</p><p>The national living wage only reaches its full £9 an hour in 2020 and the free childcare offer won’t be available to those families with eligible children until 2017. The tax credit cuts will be imposed from April. That’s the issue the Chancellor has to face. Even if his calculations are correct he is still launching a dive-bomb attack on Britain’s strivers from April until 2020.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T09:34:37.706Z">10.34am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>I was in the press centre at the crack of dawn, and managed to get through security without difficulty, but people trying to get into the conference centre now are having to wait ages. </p><p>What a shambles. As the old joke goes, it’s a good job this lot aren’t running the country. Hang on, I forgot ....</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Queue for Tory conference. Guess I won't be watching Osborne's speech. <a href="https://t.co/skETBUP3a5">https://t.co/skETBUP3a5</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is the queue to get into the Conservative conference venue this morning <a href="http://t.co/3am8xgHx3Y">pic.twitter.com/3am8xgHx3Y</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Outsourced G4S security at Tory conference close media/MPs entrance and direct them all to back of a long queue, winning loadsa friends.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Queue to get through ONLY security entry to Tory conf is 1/4 mile long on wet MCR Monday. It looks like that "Labour isn't working" poster</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Tory queue doubles around corners to make it look shorter. The old Disneyland trick. " We might get in by lunchtime" quips one delegate</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">When I say the Bedraggled Tory conf queue is 1/4 mile long , I mean at least 1/4 mile long &amp; growing. Rain getting heavier</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rumours that Tory queue now 90 minutes long. Vultures arriving from as far away as Didsbury to feast off older delegates</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Huge queues at entrance to <a href="https://twitter.com/Conservatives">@Conservatives</a> party conference. Looking like an hour wait. G4S has closed media route. <a href="http://t.co/U0ZgyVnk9q">pic.twitter.com/U0ZgyVnk9q</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T09:14:06.195Z">10.14am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>In Labour circles there are mixed views on Lord Adonis’s decision to take a post chairing the new national infrastructure commission.</p><p>The Labour MP<strong> Paul Flynn</strong> says Adonis is a “shallow opportunist”.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Great deal for Labour- trustworthy and decent Tory MP in exchange for shallow opportunist Adonis? NHS truth hurts.<a href="http://t.co/BB3rrSEOGk">http://t.co/BB3rrSEOGk</a> …</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Adonis - no surprise there the then!</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Guess Andrew Adonis didn't want to wait to his 60s to do a real job again</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lord Adonis,Blairite minister and one time Mayoral hopeful has deserted the party and taken a position with Cameron's Tory Govt. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/treason?src=hash">#treason</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I'd compare Lord Adonis's treason to Ramsey MacDonald's but the runt isn't fit to lace MacDonald's boots</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Usual practice for someone undertaking national role to resign Labour whip temporarily. <a href="https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis">@Andrew_Adonis</a> will do great job for Britain.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Congrats to <a href="https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis">@Andrew_Adonis</a> on becoming Britain's Robert Moses as head of the Infrastructure Commission. The right person for a crucial role.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">National Infrastructure Commission is another Labour idea adopted by Osborne. It needs someone who believes in it. Good luck Andrew Adonis</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T08:47:26.627Z">9.47am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>David Davis</strong>, the Conservative former minister and David Cameron’s rival in the 2005 leadership contest, has warned that the tax credit cuts could be Cameron’s “poll tax”. This is what he told the Sun:</p><p>The government has to balance the books but the burden shouldn’t be on the poorest who did nothing to create the problem.</p><p>The government needs to look at this again. For three million families losing £1,000 doesn’t mean cancelling your holiday, it means an empty pantry. I hope this doesn’t turn out to be our poll tax.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T08:40:21.830Z">9.40am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>George Osborne’s most tricky moments during his interviews this morning came when he was asked about asked about the cuts to tax credits. The Sun is campaigning aggressively against the cuts, and today it has published this editorial about the issue.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Sun Says today: On tax credits, the PM is kicking away the ladder from those with their foot on the first rung. <a href="http://t.co/P7s1DaROkA">pic.twitter.com/P7s1DaROkA</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T08:30:15.846Z">9.30am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne</strong> has given five interviews this morning. Here are the key points he made.</p><p>The truth is the minimum wage has just gone up this week to £6.70, the national living wage is coming in next April at the same time as the changes to tax credits at £7.20, income taxes have already been cut by me by up to £1,000. We have made a set of changes that, if you take them in the round, mean families are better off and at the same time we have a country that has economic security, where more and more of its budget is not going to welfare. </p><p>Unless we take steps to curb the cost of this welfare we are basically confining this country to the second row, to the back row of history. I don’t want that to be the case for Britain. </p><p>We now have an independent report that has forced the choice on government, made it very clear what the options are, ruled out all sorts of other options that are out there, and said here, if you want to build a runway - and, by the way, you need to - you can either put on at Heathrow or you can put one at Gatwick. And now you decide ... Now, of course, the government has got to make that decision.</p><p>Britain is pretty rubbish at making big decisions on infrastructure. It takes decades to get agreement on things like Crossrail ... I want to change all that.</p><p>But in the end I ask you the question: if we had never built the M25, or the M6 or the Channel Tunnel or the West Coast Mainline, where would we be as a country? All of those projects were bitterly contested at the time. It is a lesson for us as a country that the future favours the bold.</p><p>Those protesters are, essentially, part of a big trade union march. The trade unions support the Labour party, pay the Labour party. They’ve just bought the leadership of the Labour party. So it’s not really surprising they don’t like the Conservative party. </p><p>I don’t want to declare war on people. I want to shake the inertia across this country against building things, against building homes, against building roads, against building railways.</p><p>He has made a decision - a decision fully supported by a Labour party that voted for him - to head off to the fringes. I think that’s a big responsibility, therefore, for Conservatives to represent working people, some of whom will not have voted for us at the last election, who have been abandoned by the Labour party.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:57:07.259Z">8.57am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is some Twitter comment on George Osborne’s Today interview from political journalists.</p><p>From the BBC’s <strong>Norman Smith</strong></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">George Osborne says its a choice between Heathrow and Gatwick. Sounds like not a given Heathrow will get go ahead <a href="https://twitter.com/BBCr4today">@BBCr4today</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne suggesting that another runway at Gatwick still an option and Heathrow not a done deal makes life a bit easier for Zac Goldsmith</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Why don't you ask me about the decisions I'm not taking?asks <a href="https://twitter.com/George_Osborne">@George_Osborne</a> in slightly surreal interview moment <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bbcr4today?src=hash">#bbcr4today</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/George_Osborne">@George_Osborne</a> getting annoyed he isn't quizzed on the 'decisions I haven't taken'. Pretty sure he was just asked about airway expansion</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/George_Osborne">@George_Osborne</a> paints Davies commission as presenting choice between Heathrow &amp; Gatwick. Hmmm. Davies was pretty clear he favours Heahtrow</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That Osborne 7% of world welfare bill stat is a bit misleading - includes 3rd world (+ presume he doesn't want Zimbabwean welfare) <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/r4today?src=hash">#r4today</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne isn't stupid so trying to deceive on tax credits. Not a good sound on <a href="https://twitter.com/BBCr4today">@BBCr4today</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:35:43.642Z">8.35am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>And here is <strong>Paul Kenny,</strong> the GMB general secretary, on the Osborne plan for a national infrastructure commission.</p><p>The Tory Party claim to be the party of workers is nonsense. As well as taking 1,200 per year in tax credits from three million workers, with the appointment of Lord Adonis they plan to demolish the council estates where these workers live, to develop luxury housing for sale. </p><p>If you are going to tell a lie tell a big one. The Tories have begun this policy of knocking down council estates in Roehampton, south-west London, where 600 homes face demolition by compulsory purchase orders to make way for housing the 600 families who cannot afford to buy. The property developers fund the Tories and it is their party.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:30:42.853Z">8.30am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is what <strong>Nigel Farage</strong>, the Ukip leader, has said about George Osborne’s plan for a new national infrastructure commission.</p><p>George Osborne’s plan to ease planning sounds like the death of the green belt.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:25:44.967Z">8.25am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Do other EU leaders really have time for British demands, with all the other problems they face?</em></p><p>Osborne says EU leaders are thinking about Britain’s concerns.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:23:39.365Z">8.23am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Why are you in charge of the EU renegotation. Shouldn’t that be a job for the foreign secretary?</em></p><p>Osborne says the prime minister is in charge. He, Osborne and Philip Hammond are all working on this.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:22:12.351Z">8.22am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Do you accept your plan carries a political risk? It blows a hole in the claim that you are on the side of working people. Look at what David Willetts said.</em></p><p>Osborne says you cannot look at this in isolation.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:20:16.963Z">8.20am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Yesterday David Cameron said he was certain working families would be better off, despite the tax credit cuts.</em></p><p>Osborne says this is part of a long-term plan. We cannot afford a welfare system that grows and grows and grows.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:16:29.910Z">8.16am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Mishal Husain is interviewing <strong>George Osborne.</strong></p><p>Osborne says the new infrastructure body is intended to take the politics out of difficult planning decision.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:13:30.638Z">8.13am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Chris Cook,</strong> Newsnight’s policy editor, wrote<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32373317"> a blog during the election explaining why the sale of Lloyds shares to retail investors might not be a good idea.</a> Here’s an extract.</p><p>There are dangers worth considering in the Tory plan. There is little clamour for the state to hold on to the banks, but should the sale be targeted at kitchen-table investors? Here are some reasons for caution.</p><p>The first is that bank equity is a super-complex financial product. Modern banks trade in things that are impossibly difficult to follow from the outside. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26680993">They are also accident-prone.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T07:04:10.885Z">8.04am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne</strong> will be on the Today programme in 10 minutes.</p><p>Yesterday we learnt that he is not a huge fan. Here’s an extract from <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/event/article-3256404/George-Osborne-Britain-mojo-stand-still.html">Geordie Greig’s interview with him in the Mail on Sunday.</a></p><p>[Osborne] wakes up to the Today show on Radio 4 but doesn’t listen for long. </p><p>‘Six out of ten times I go, “I don’t want to hear any more of that,”’ he grunts. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T06:56:49.189Z">7.56am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Sky News’s <strong>Faisal Islam</strong> says the Lloyds share sale is not as big as the one proposed by the Tories during the general election.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">During election campaign, Conservatives pledged £4bn discount retail Lloyds sharesale: so that's halved to £2bn <a href="http://t.co/1Hwk1Iss75">http://t.co/1Hwk1Iss75</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T06:52:52.535Z">7.52am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>George Osborne also told Sky News that a website was available where people can register if they want to apply for Lloyds shares. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/lloydsshares">Here it is.</a></p><p>The Treasury says all the proceeds from the sale will go towards paying down the national debt.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T06:47:23.124Z">7.47am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne</strong> told Sky that the Lloyds share sale would be “the biggest privatisation in over 20 years”. He said he did not want all the shares to go to City institutions.</p><p>I want them to go to members of the public, people watching this programme and others. So our offer is this: Buy Lloyds shares. We’ll favour small investors, we’ll favour those who hold the shares for a long time. You’ll get a discount. And we’ll help create that share-owning democracy that we want to see in this country.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-10-05T06:40:12.580Z">7.40am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>George Osborne, the chancellor, is giving his speech to the Conservative conference this morning. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/05/lord-adonis-to-resign-labour-whip-and-chair-george-osbornes-infrastructure-body">Overnight he announced that he has recruited Lord Adonis, the Labour peer and Tony Blair’s former policy chief, to chair a new statutory body that will advise the government on new infrastructure projects.</a></p><p>And this morning he’s got another announcement. He is selling Lloyds bank shares worth £2bn, and they will be available to members of the public at a discount. Here is an extract <a href="https://www.gov.uk/lloyds-share-offer">from the Treasury press notice.</a></p><p>It is the government’s intention to fully exit from its Lloyds shareholding in the coming months, and as part of this at least £2bn of shares will be sold to retail investors. Members of the public will be offered a discount of 5% of the market price, with a bonus share for every 10 shares for those who hold their investment for more than a year. The value of the bonus share incentive will be capped at £200 per investor. People applying for investments of less than £1,000 will be prioritised.</p><p>All proceeds from share sales are used to pay down the national debt.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsConservativesConservative conferenceGeorge OsborneTax and spendingAndrew AdonisEconomic policyBusinessLloyds Banking GroupBanks and building societiesJeremy HuntLocal governmentMon, 05 Oct 2015 16:36:43 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-livePhotograph: Natasha Quarmby/REX ShutterstockPhotograph: Natasha Quarmby/REX ShutterstockAndrew Sparrow2015-10-05T16:36:43ZLabour faces a tough time convincing voters on the UK economyhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/sep/27/labour-tough-time-voters-uk-economy-corbynomics
<p>Voters will only elect Labour if they trust the party with the economy - but there are some scenarios in which they will give Corbynomics a hearing</p><p>A reputation for economic competence can be lost in a day and take a generation to win back. Ask the Conservatives. George Soros did for them on 16 September 1992 when his selling of the pound drove Britain out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. The Conservatives lost three elections on the trot after Black Wednesday.</p><p>Labour, too, knows how long the rehabilitation process can be. No single event was to blame for Jim Callaghan losing the 1979 election; rather it was the combination of record peacetime inflation, a sterling crisis, a squeeze on living standards and the Winter of Discontent. There followed an 18-year gap before voters were again prepared to trust Labour with their money.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/26/jeremy-corbyn-trident-what-it-takes-to-be-pm">I’ve got what it takes to be PM, Jeremy Corbyn tells his critics</a> </p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/19/corbynomics-why-we-should-take-it-seriously">Why we should take Corbynomics seriously</a> </p><p>People’s quantitative easing is simply an alternative form of helicopter money</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/20/uk-economic-slowdown-dont-panic">UK economic slowdown? Don't panic</a> </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/sep/27/labour-tough-time-voters-uk-economy-corbynomics">Continue reading...</a>BusinessJeremy CorbynPoliticsEconomic growth (GDP)Economic recoveryEconomicsFinancial crisisAusterityTax and spendingSterlingBankingCurrenciesFinancial sectorSun, 27 Sep 2015 12:18:08 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/sep/27/labour-tough-time-voters-uk-economy-corbynomicsPhotograph: AlamyPhotograph: AlamyLarry Elliott Economics editor2015-09-27T12:18:08ZTime to look at national insurance, the ultimate stealth taxhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jul/26/time-to-look-at-national-insurance-the-ultimate-stealth-tax
<p>George Osborne has asked the Office of Tax Simplification to see whether the income tax and NICs could remain separate but be better aligned</p><p> </p><p>Lloyd George introduced it. Labour made it the bedrock of its post-war state pension scheme. Nigel Lawson toyed with the idea of abolishing it only to go cool on the idea. What is it? It is national insurance, the little brother to income tax and now the subject of a new review commissioned by George Osborne.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jul/28/the-uncertain-relationship-between-national-insurance-and-income-tax">The uncertain relationship between national insurance and income tax | Letters</a> </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jul/26/time-to-look-at-national-insurance-the-ultimate-stealth-tax">Continue reading...</a>BusinessTax and spendingNational insuranceMoneyPoliticsTaxUK newsGeorge OsborneSun, 26 Jul 2015 13:51:22 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jul/26/time-to-look-at-national-insurance-the-ultimate-stealth-taxPhotograph: Hulton Archive/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Hulton Archive/Getty ImagesLarry Elliott Economics editor2015-07-26T13:51:22ZSummer budget 2015: Osborne announces 'living wage' – as it happenedhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live
<ul><li>Chancellor announces £17bn tax and spending savings</li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live#block-559d115ee4b032a39a3bb37b">Student maintenance grants to be abolished</a></li><li>‘Non-dom’ tax status <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live#block-559d0e6be4b00bdd27708871">partially curbed</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live#block-559d14ede4b032a39a3bb395">Corporation tax cut to 19% in 2017</a></li></ul><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T17:08:35.413Z">6.08pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s a taste of what people are saying about the budget outside Westminster. It’s from my colleague <strong>Amelia Gentleman.</strong></p><p>Customers in the Cafe 96 Degrees in Leicester were paying scant attention to the budget, being broadcast from a television on the chrome bar, next to piles of brownies and croissants. No-one looked up from their salads (goats cheese and roasted pepper with feta) when the Chancellor reminded them again of his conviction that: “We are all in this together.”</p><p>But residents across Leicester will be affected in greater numbers by the welfare reform announcements made yesterday than people in much of the rest of the country. Leicester is fifth highest local authority ranked according to the number of people receiving child and tax credits – with 12% of households receiving them (14,800 households). By contrast, just 2.4% of households in Kensington and Chelsea depend on those benefits.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T16:50:21.944Z">5.50pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>In her book Get it Together, Zoe Williams recalls how Ed Balls came to the Guardian offices at some point in the last parliament and, in the course of a briefing, said: “What we did with working families’ tax credits was the biggest back-door redistribution a government has ever done.” By stealth, Gordon Brown tilted the benefits system towards the poor. Today, through his £13bn benefit cuts, George Osborne is giving it a massive shove the other way.</p><p>You can’t exactly accuse Osborne of stealth. The Tories made no secret about their plans to slash welfare spending, even if they were egregiously opaque before the election about where those cuts would fall. But with restrictions on non-doms, a levy on business for apprenticeships and a living wage (even if it is not <em>the</em> living wage - see<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live#block-559d3b4fe4b032a39a3bb4a8"> 4.07pm), </a>Osborne has managed to cloak his small-stateism with some Labourish measures that would have had the CBI and the IoD going ballistic if Balls had ever had the temerity to introduce them. In terms of his overall fiscal plans, Osborne has also trimmed quite a lot since March. Spending cuts will not be as severe as planned, and he has delayed by a year the date by which he intends to balance the budget. </p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">. <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow">@AndrewSparrow</a> - we've backed the new living wage. 87% of IoD members pay the real one already <a href="http://t.co/WsMV4ASVuy">http://t.co/WsMV4ASVuy</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/IoD_press">@IoD_press</a> Thanks. Will get that in (though my point was that, if Labour tried this, business reaction might be rather different)</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T16:37:27.728Z">5.37pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>As expected, George Osborne unveiled a slight slowdown in UK economic growth this year, but the over-riding budget message on the economy was that the recovery was still on track. Meanwhile the pace of reducing the deficit will be more gradual than previously expected.</p><p>GDP is forecast to grow by 2.4% this year, compared to the 2.5% which was expected in the March budget. But this was not much of a surprise, given a slowdown in the first quarter and worries about growth in the US and China, not to mention the turmoil in the eurozone with the possible departure of Greece from the single currency.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T16:18:13.553Z">5.18pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here are three more verdicts on the budget.</p><p>Mr Osborne’s gamble is that some businesses will simply eat the cost of higher wages (unlikely), or train their workers better and give them better tools so that the higher wages can be justified with higher productivity. It is possible this may work. It is enormously risky, and if the move is the wrong one it will be hard to reverse. The lesson of the 1980s is that, once lost, jobs are not easy to find again.</p><p>One might ask why the chancellor is willing to take such risks and to order the Low Pay Commission to do his bidding rather than be guided by evidence. The answer is not hard to find: Mr Osborne needs political cover. He is hacking away at the welfare state, notably the system of tax credits that was designed to encourage people to work rather than stay at home.</p><p>It was a coalition, not a Conservative, Budget that Osborne had expected to deliver. After the Tories’ unforeseen victory, this was a statement designed to ruthlessly consolidate their advantage. Labour’s weaknesses were exploited through the budget surplus law and the reduced benefit cap; the Conservatives’ were addressed through tax cuts and a “National Living Wage”. After another Budget sweeping in its scope, the opposition is less sure than ever about how to reset the terms of debate in its favour. </p><p>What makes this Budget so politically astute is how it all fits together. The four-year freeze on working age benefits and the cuts to tax credits are made palatable by the introduction of a national living wage. Meanwhile businesses’ potential objections to this wage hike will be muted by the cut in corporation tax to 18p and the hypothecation of vehicle excise duty to road improvements.</p><p>It is hard to define this Budget politically. There were plenty of things in there to please the Tory right, the commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence in particular. But it was also one that made several raids on Labour territory in areas such as non-dom taxation and skills and a big land grab on the national living wage.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T16:13:28.461Z">5.13pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton has been carefully analysing George Osborne’s jokes.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Significant that in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a> Osborne revealed who he sees as key opponent. Clue: not Labour <a href="http://t.co/De9gMw85o2">http://t.co/De9gMw85o2</a> <a href="http://t.co/mfS5ibdyBv">pic.twitter.com/mfS5ibdyBv</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T16:11:39.211Z">5.11pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>One of the key issues for the budget is whether the amount low-earners will gain from tax changes and the national living wage will compensate for the amount they will lose from the benefit cuts. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live#block-559d26cfe4b032a39a3bb401">2.50pm.) </a>Welfare experts say that, for many families, the losses will easily outweigh the gains, but the Treasury has a chart in its red book that supposedly shows many families will gain. </p><p>It shows the changes in net income for various family types resulting from the tax, welfare and minimum wage/living wage changes.</p><p>A typical renting household with two children and two full‐time earners currently at the minimum wage will see their net income rise by 12% in real terms over the Parliament. Over the Parliament, a typical renting household with one child, and one adult in work currently at the minimum wage, is expected to see their net income rise by 6% in real terms, whereas the same household with no one in work is expected to see their income fall in real terms by 4%. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:59:27.547Z">4.59pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Office for Budget Responsibility says that the national living wage policy will take Britain from middle of the OECD league table, in terms of the value of its minimum wage as a percentage of full-time median earnings (red line in the middle - UK now), to near the top (red line about three quarters of the way up).</p><p>This chart is from Robert Chote, the head of the OBR’s, presentation.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:52:05.039Z">4.52pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s our reality check on the national living wage:</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/reality-check/2015/jul/08/george-osborne-budget-national-living-wage">Has George Osborne really introduced a living wage?</a> </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:42:52.193Z">4.42pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Institute for Fiscal Studies will give its full verdict on the budget at a briefing tomorrow, but Paul Johnson, the IFS director, was on the BBC earlier. Here are some of the key points he made.</p><p>There are clearly some losers here, some fairly high income people with dividends, for example, are going to be hit by the increase in dividend taxation. Also, if they are higher rate taxpayers who are buy-to-letters, then they’re going to be losing from that as well. The other big losers are those who are receiving some parts of the tax credit system.</p><p>A lot of this will actually affect universal credit, which isn’t yet in place. The big change that this will have is it will reduce significantly the amount that you can earn before you start losing the benefit. Actually, it begins to undermine a little bit the really important aspect of the way that universal credit was put together, which was it was deliberately designed to allow you to earn a reasonably significant amount of money before you started losing your benefits. The amount you are going to be able to earn before you lose your benefits is going to go down.</p><p>[Osborne] is legislating higher wages and he will bring quite a lot of people in to this new national living wage, a lot more people will be directly affected by it than are affected by the national minimum wage. I think we are entering slightly unknown territory actually in terms of having a minimum wage. He says the OBR has estimated that it will have a relatively small effect on the number of jobs; actually I think there is some considerable uncertainty about that.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:14:58.358Z">4.14pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/07/five-policies-that-george-osborne-has-just-stolen-from-ed-miliband/">Fraser Nelson at the Spectator says there were six ideas in the budget stolen from Labour. </a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:08:49.597Z">4.08pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s the view of our economics editor Larry Elliott:</p><p>It is one of the iron rules of British politics that chancellors take tough decisions in the budget that immediately follow a general election – and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/georgeosborne">George Osborne</a> did not break with tradition.</p><p>The meat of the first all-Conservative package in almost two decades was <a href="http://preview.gutools.co.uk/uk-news/2015/jul/08/july-budget-2015-key-points-at-a-glance">a series of measures</a> designed to turn a deficit of £70bn this year into a surplus by the end of the parliament. There will be tax increases that will raise a total of £47bn by 2020 and welfare cuts that will raise £35bn.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-george-osborne-gets-tough-less-pain">Budget 2015: George Osborne tries to get tough, with less pain</a> </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:07:43.436Z">4.07pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.livingwage.org.uk/news/living-wage-foundation-response-budget-2015">The Living Wage Foundation has given a qualified welcome to George Osborne’s national living wage announcement.</a> But it says that the cuts to tax credits could mean the living wage needs to be even higher.</p><p>It is worth clarifying that Osborne’s national living wage is not the same as <a href="http://www.livingwage.org.uk/what-living-wage">the foundation’s living wage.</a> They may have the same name (Osborne pinched the title), but Osborne’s is just a new tier of the minimum wage, ultimately pegged to median earnings. The foundation’s is pegged instead to prices, and is set at a level intended to cover the basic cost of living.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T15:00:46.929Z">4.00pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is the Evening Standard splash.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Treasury will be pleased with this <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/budget2015?src=hash">#budget2015</a> <a href="http://t.co/mjyHwkyOPw">pic.twitter.com/mjyHwkyOPw</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:59:42.973Z">3.59pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-verdict-writers-george-osborne">the verdict on the budget from the Comment is free panel:</a> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/profile/tomclark">Tom Clark</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/profile/pollytoynbee">Polly Toynbee</a>,<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/profile/matthew-dancona">Matthew d’Ancona</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/profile/gabyhinsliff">Gaby Hinsliff</a>, and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/profile/adityachakrabortty">Aditya Chakrabortty</a></p><p>This is from Polly’s piece.</p><p>Keep your eyes on their prize – the deep and permanent shrinking of the state. Ignore the confetti of distractions – look where we are headed. The “low tax, low welfare” UK state will be smaller even than the US as a proportion of GDP by 2019 – far from the European social democratic norm.</p><p>Before these cuts, <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx">the IMF and OECD projected</a> the UK state would fall to 36.6%, very close to the US at 35%. Germany is at 45.4%. Today’s £12bn welfare cuts add another 1.6%, so <a href="http://www.kent.ac.uk/news/society/6226/budget-will-bring-public-spending-down-to-below-us-levels-research-shows">UK spending will fall below America’s</a>.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:58:33.149Z">3.58pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Reaction to the budget confirmation that the National Health Service will receive an extra £8bn by 2020</strong>.</p><p>Rob Webster, chief executive of the NHS Confederation which<strong> </strong>represents 85 per cent of NHS providers and commissioners, welcomed the news and said:</p><p>As highlighted in today’s budget document, the £8bn needs to come in staged increases and we would emphasise this should reflect the bigger cost pressures expected in the first half of this Parliament. There is an opportunity for a multi-year funding deal to be aligned with planning in the NHS, for example around pricing, contracting and allocations. Through NHS Employers, we will look at the impact of the budget on our workforce. </p><p>The additional funding will also need to account for investment in transformation, to support double-running and other costs that will be needed to move to new models of care. What cannot be forgotten though is the impact that social care cuts are having on the NHS. We need urgent action to look at how we address the gap in social care funding, currently estimated at £4 billion by 2020. </p><p>Patients and employers want to see improved and better seven-day services, and what we urgently need to consider is the workforce and pay and contract reform required to support this, especially for medical staff.</p><p>In continuing with the work to reform terms and conditions of service in and across the NHS, we now look forward to the publication of reports and the observations from the pay review bodies. Following publication we will be urgently seeking to speak with our trade unions, to ensure we continue to work in partnership to progress pay reforms and service improvement across the NHS.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:55:17.971Z">3.55pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is <strong>Frank Field</strong>, the Labour chair of the Commons work and pensions committee, on the budget.</p><p>The living wage initiative could be a game changing move. What’s crucial now is to ensure that the level at which it’s set by the end of the parliament is matched by productivity increases so it is sustainable. The immediate issue, however, is how many strivers will be made worse off by the other announcements the chancellor has made and what moves should we initiate to ensure that our constituents’ wish that work will pay is fulfilled.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:52:35.882Z">3.52pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>According to <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/pubs/July-2015-EFO-234224.pdf">the Office for Budget Responsibility report (pdf),</a> the decision to impose a 1% a year cut in social housing rents will lead to less affordable housing being built. (Bold print inserted by me.)</p><p>The government’s decision to impose 1 per cent annual rent reductions in the social rented sector for four years from April 2016 will directly reduce social landlords’ rental income, and therefore their financing for, and returns to, investing in new housebuilding. To reflect this we have reduced our forecast for residential investment, proportionate to the expected reduction in rental income. This reduces private residential investment by around 0.7 per cent by the end of the forecast period. Around 37,000 ‘affordable homes’ were built by Housing Associations in England in 2013-14. The adjustment would be broadly consistent with reducing housebuilding by housing associations by around 4,000 in 2019-20, when the full effect of the policy on their rental income has been reached. <strong>Over the forecast period, our assumptions suggest around 14,000 fewer ‘affordable homes’ will be built. </strong></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:51:24.227Z">3.51pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>One for the law of unintended consequences?</p><p>By cutting UK corporation tax to 18%, the chancellor might have encouraged another round of tax-inversion bids, where multi-national companies (in reality US corporations) attempt to take over UK registered businesses and relocate their head offices to gain the benefit of lower tax rates. Pfizer made one such attempt when it bid for AstraZeneca before being rebuffed. But Neil Shah at Edison Investment Research, said:</p><p>The Chancellor has raised the for sale sign over UK plc by reducing UK corporation tax to 18%, a full 2% below even the lowest of any advanced economy and crucially the lowest rate in Europe. Expect tax inversion-style led approaches for UK listed multinationals to come once again from the US with the dollar strengthening both against a troubled euro and boosted by the possibility of US interest rate hikes.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:50:36.228Z">3.50pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>And here’s more from Katie Allen at the OBR briefing:</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OBR says govt on course to meet existing and planned fiscal rules <a href="http://t.co/l9BY8yTi34">pic.twitter.com/l9BY8yTi34</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OBR head Chote concludes <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SummerBudget?src=hash">#SummerBudget</a> represents a "big fiscal package", less reliant on public services cuts <a href="http://t.co/hftYYvExCC">pic.twitter.com/hftYYvExCC</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:47:22.652Z">3.47pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>On page 185 of<a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/pubs/July-2015-EFO-234224.pdf"> its report (pdf),</a> the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes a table giving an “uncertainty” rating to all George Osborne’s spending/saving decision. It measures how likely they are to save/cost as much as the Treasury thinks.</p><p>Measures that will save money through penalising the low-paid, such as freezing benefits, have a “low” uncertainty rating (meaning that there is little doubt that the money will come).</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:33:04.656Z">3.33pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>This is from Alison Garnham, chief executive of the <strong>Child Poverty Action Group</strong>, on the budget.</p><p>The welcome move on a higher minimum wage cannot disguise the truth that this is a budget that damages the economic security of working families, and takes us further down the road to being a two-nation economy, with higher child poverty for millions and lower taxes for the better off. </p><p>We have long called for a genuine living wage, but no single wage level can take account of family size, so families which appear to gain under this proposal may end up worse off overall if cuts to child benefit, child tax credits and working tax credits go ahead. It’s vital that any savings the government makes through higher wages are re-invested to help families with children.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:32:05.260Z">3.32pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Our colleague Katie Allen is at the Office for Budget Responsibility briefing:</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SummerBudget?src=hash">#SummerBudget</a> OBR head starting briefing on fiscal and economic forecasts <a href="http://t.co/F9Iji7xPCD">pic.twitter.com/F9Iji7xPCD</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OBR Chote slides on impact of Osborne's national living wage plan <a href="http://t.co/FcyUHgrCmF">pic.twitter.com/FcyUHgrCmF</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OBR fcasts not adjusted for Greece effect but Chote says: if confidence across eurozone is hit by events there "UK would be affected"</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:29:38.612Z">3.29pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Office for Budget Responsibility says that the changes to the inheritance tax (which give older people less incentive to sell) could lead to more over-crowding for the young. This is from page 42 of <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/pubs/July-2015-EFO-234224.pdf">the OBR’s report (pdf).</a></p><p>Changes to the inheritance tax regime could make it more likely that the co-existence of under-occupation among older owners and over-crowding among younger renters will become even more prevalent. It is not clear to what extent that might affect regional labour mobility or other issues relevant to our macroeconomic forecast, so we have not made any adjustments on account of this. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:22:22.290Z">3.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Scottish secretary David Mundell has welcomed the budget as good for Scotland, telling the BBC that the Barnett consequentials would be minimal, probably with a surplus of around £7m.</p><p>So it’s an economically neutral budget for Scotland but not politically - as George Osborne indicated in his speech when he told the SNP that, with new power for tax raising and on welfare: “You’ve got the powers, now what are you going to do with them?”</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:14:39.088Z">3.14pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>According to Labour, a single parent working 16 hours a week with two children will gain just over £400 from George Osborne’s national living wage. But she would lose £860 from changes to tax credits in 2016-17.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:13:06.129Z">3.13pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Labour is pointing out more bits of bad news buried in the budget small print.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:10:33.193Z">3.10pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Interest rates are still forecast to rise in the first half of next year, but might rise slightly more quickly than expected in March, said the Office for Budget Responsibility:</p><p>Since our March forecast, medium-term interest rate expectations have risen slightly but the first increase in Bank Rate is still expected in the second quarter of 2016.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:05:59.057Z">3.05pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For the geeks out there, here are the full costings for all the Budget measures <a href="http://t.co/yV27bCoPVq">pic.twitter.com/yV27bCoPVq</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:03:53.658Z">3.03pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>This is what <strong>Chris Leslie</strong>, the shadow chancellor, had to say about the budget on BBC News just now. </p><p>When you actually look at this more in the totality, in the round this really been a budget to hit those in work, particularly those on low pay. [George Osborne’s] doing his usual political trick, lots of headlines - he’s a headline chancellor - but when you take away the spin, actually he’s taking billions and billions away from the tax credits that people need in work. A work penalty has been introduced into the tax credit system, and he’s done it in a number of different way.</p><p>First of all, he’s halved the level at which people can be awarded the full amount of tax credit, going from £6,000 to £3,000. So effectively, for those people on tax credits, it’s a bit like halving the personal allowance for them. And then he’s taking it away at a much faster rate. And there’s no way that the increases in the minimum wage, much as though we welcome some of those, can keep pace with the hit that is going hurt those on the lowest pay. So, for all the slogans about helping working people, he is definitely not doing that.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T14:00:34.199Z">3.00pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>As <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live#block-559cf22ce4b032a39a3bb27f"><strong>flagged earlier</strong></a>, protesters gathered at Downing Street to show their displeasure with the government’s planned welfare cuts:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:51:23.306Z">2.51pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Renewable electricity will no longer be exempt from the climate change levy. The budget documents say:</p><p>This change will correct an imbalance in the tax system by preventing taxpayers’ money benefitting renewable electricity generated overseas, and by helping ensure support for low carbon generation provides better value for money for UK taxpayers.</p><p>As many other states are powering ahead with renewable energy, we have a government that’s making it even harder to establish and develop renewable energy projects, while ignoring the economic, social and environmental benefits of investing in providing warm, comfortable, affordable-to-heat homes for all.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne takes the axe to exemption for users of renewable electricity from the Climate Change Levy. Another blue attack on green policies.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:50:42.279Z">2.50pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The most important tabl<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/443232/50325_Summer_Budget_15_Web_Accessible.pdf">e in the budget red book (pdf)</a> is table 2.1, which sets out how much money the chancellor is saving and spending from his various budget measures.</p><p>Overall, this is a tax raising budget. It raises almost £1bn net in tax this year (2015-16), and the overall tightening this year (tax rises plus spending cuts) is worth £3.5bn. By 2020-21 the overall tightening is almost £19bn.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:31:50.646Z">2.31pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Loosing the squeeze on public services spending funded by welfare cuts, net tax increases and three years of higher government borrowing - that is the budget verdict of the Office for Budget Responsibility.</p><p> Day to day government spending would be £83.3bn higher over the current parliament than the coalition suggested in March. Tax cuts - mainly a decrease in corporation tax, a rise in income tax personal allowances and extending inheritance tax relief for main residences - would cost £24.6bn.</p><p>The Government would have to identify further real cuts in public services spending rising to a peak of £17.9 billion in 2019-20, rather than £41.9 billion in 2018-19. Thereafter spending is assumed to rise again in real terms. Public services spending would fall by an average of 1.5 per cent a year in real terms over this Parliament as a whole, slightly less than the 1.6 per cent a year cuts over the last.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:21:10.833Z">2.21pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s Iain Duncan Smith’s reaction to the national living wage:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:20:16.996Z">2.20pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The introduction of the national living wage could increase the chances of interest rates going up, Sky points out.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Colleague <a href="https://twitter.com/IanKingSky">@iankingsky</a> makes the v good point that if the <a href="https://twitter.com/bankofengland">@bankofengland</a> gets wind of this mass wage rise issue, likely to hasten rate rises</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:19:18.612Z">2.19pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://press.labour.org.uk/post/123547761674/speech-by-harriet-harman-responding-to-the-budget">Here’s a copy of Harriet Harman’s response to the budget.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:17:16.277Z">2.17pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Snap economic verdict:</strong> </p><p>As expected George Osborne unveiled a lower than expected growth forecast for this year, down from the 2.5% expected in March to 2.4%. That follows slower than expected growth in the first quarter, and the subsequent problems with the global economy which has seen slowdowns in the US and China. And of course the eurozone crisis and the prospect of Greece leaving the single currency has also had an impact.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:16:44.062Z">2.16pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is more about how the new national living wage (NLW) will work.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T13:01:11.518Z">2.01pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/summer-budget-2015">You can read find all the budget documents here.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:51:57.980Z">1.51pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Markets and the pound both moved higher during the course of Osborne’s speech but fell back to end unchanged by the time he had finished.</p><p>The FTSE 100 is up around 1%, with investors buoyed by the growth forecasts and the cut in corporation tax.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:51:23.290Z">1.51pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Snap political verdict:</strong> This was a budget that lived up to expectations. The squeeze on tax credits was as brutal as everyone expected, but the living wage announcement was a genuine spectacular, that should see some low-earners see their pay go up from £6.50 an hour now to £7.20 an hour next year. Without seeing the detail it is not possible to make a definitive judgment, but it looks as though this policy trumps what Labour was offering on low pay at the election (a rise in the national minimum wage to £8 an hour by 2019), and it will do much to bolster the Conservatives’ “blue collar” credentials. If the Tories really can fully embrace blue collar Conservatism (and, even after today, they still have some way to go), Labour will be in even deeper trouble than they realise. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:46:56.730Z">1.46pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s the summary from the Office for Budget Responsibility:</p><p>The new Government has used its first Budget to loosen significantly the impending squeeze on public services, financed by welfare cuts, net tax increases and three years of higher borrowing. The Government has also delayed the expected return to a budget surplus by a year to 2019-20, but is then aiming for a slightly bigger surplus in the medium term</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:40:26.014Z">1.40pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne is winding up now.</p><p>He says the Conservatives are introducing a national living wage. This shows the Conservatives are the party for working people. It is a one nation policy, from a one nation government, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:39:52.389Z">1.39pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Big cheers for the national living wage from Conservatives, in contrast to earlier disruption from opposition when Osborne announced benefit cuts.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:38:48.873Z">1.38pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to pay.</p><p>It cannot be right that firms are subsidised to pay low wages.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:34:54.544Z">1.34pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to defence.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:33:03.339Z">1.33pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says income tax.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:31:10.968Z">1.31pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says by 2010 tax credits were available to nine out of 10 people. Under these changes, they will only be available to five out of 10 people.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:29:48.204Z">1.29pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the benefits system should not support lifestyles not available to taxpayers not on benefits.</p><p>The government introduced a benefits cap at £26,000. Labour opposed it, but it encouraged people to find work, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:26:08.830Z">1.26pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says we spend more on family benefits than we do in Germany, France or Sweden.</p><p>As Frank Field says, this is simply not sustainable.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:22:25.583Z">1.22pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to welfare.</p><p>The welfare system should support the elderly, the vulnerable and the disabled.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:20:00.502Z">1.20pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Meanwhile housebuilding and property shares have been hit by the various measures unveiled.</p><p>The move to tighten non-dom tax rules with permanent non-dom status to be abolished has hit companies with a focus in London , including Berkeley Group and estate agency Foxtons.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some reaction: The London property market and economy will be hit by the move on non-doms, according estate agents Jackson-Stops &amp; Staff.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:18:31.278Z">1.18pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says there will be further cuts to corporation tax.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:17:43.953Z">1.17pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says corporation cut has already been cut to 20%.</p><p>He says he cannot bring it lower, while there are incentives to people to self-incorporate.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:13:57.013Z">1.13pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the annual investment allowance will go up to £200,000 a year. This will help small and medium-sized firms, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:13:22.675Z">1.13pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to housing. Further planning reforms will be announced on Friday.</p><p>He says buy-to-let landlords have an advantage, because they can offset mortgage payments against income. That has encouraged the growth of buy-to-let mortgages. Osborne says he wants to level the playing field.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:08:20.200Z">1.08pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he has agreed with the 10 councils of Manchester to extend the Northern Powerhouse.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:05:48.774Z">1.05pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to tuition fees.</p><p>People said these would discourage students from poor homes. But applications from people from these backgrounds went up, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:04:31.716Z">1.04pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne promises to unveil a plan to improve UK productivity on Friday:</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Productivity - will require quite a plan. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SummerBudget?src=hash">#SummerBudget</a> <a href="http://t.co/W4uZShUIE4">pic.twitter.com/W4uZShUIE4</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:02:27.549Z">1.02pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the skills of the young are no higher than the skills of the old.</p><p>Many firms do an excellent job with training, but some do not.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T12:01:14.669Z">1.01pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to cars.</p><p>By 2017, three quarters of new cars will pay no vehicle excise duty (VED) because they are fuel efficient. This penalises those who cannot afford new cars. Only Labour could designed something so regressive.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:58:12.836Z">12.58pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The bank levy changes have lifted share prices in the sector, with the City welcoming the plan to phase out the charge.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:58:09.577Z">12.58pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he will fund a memorial to victims of terrorism overseas.</p><p>There will be £50m for cadet units in schools, so that 500 schools get them.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:56:27.313Z">12.56pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to the banks.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:54:21.399Z">12.54pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he will bring forward tax paid by big companies.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:53:46.779Z">12.53pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he is will put more funds into tax evasion/avoidance work.</p><p>Serial users of tax avoidance schemes will be named and shamed.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:52:52.175Z">12.52pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s our first take on Osborne’s statement:</p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/georgeosborne">George Osborne</a> has boasted that Britain is growing faster than any other advanced economy, as he delivers what he promises will be a budget that “recognises the hard work and sacrifices of the British people”.</p><p>The latest economic forecasts from the independent <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/office-for-budget-responsibility">Office for Budget Responsibility</a>, published alongside the Budget, point to GDP growth of 2.4% this year, down slightly from 2.5% at their last forecast in March Next year, the OBR expects GDP growth of 2.3%, unchanged from March.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-uk-gdp-other-rich-nations-george-osborne">Budget 2015: UK GDP growing faster than other rich nations, George Osborne says</a> </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:49:55.138Z">12.49pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he will set out savings of £17bn today, with £12bn coming from welfare cuts and £5bn coming from tax evasion/avoidance measures.</p><p>Further savings will come from departmental budget cuts, to be set out in the autumn.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:48:47.980Z">12.48pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Listening to Osborne deliver <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a> you'd never guess that UK deficit - at 4.8% of GDP - is SIX TIMES higher than that of Greece.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:46:38.206Z">12.46pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the richest are now paying a greater share of tax than they used to..</p><p>And a greater share of state support is going to the most vulnerable, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:45:48.323Z">12.45pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the surplus is forecast to be £10bn in 2019-20, and £11.6bn in 2020-21.</p><p>He says Britain has turned the corner. It has left the age of irresponsibility behind</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:44:34.360Z">12.44pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>More on the GDP figures:</p><p>As expected, UK growth has been edged lower for 2015. In the March budget the Office for Budget Responsibility forecase GDP growth of 2.5% in 2015.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:43:44.981Z">12.43pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says decisions to save money will be taken with moderation, but determination.</p><p>Osborne says the deficit was 10.2% in 2010. It is 3.7% this year, and will fall to 2.2% in 2016-17, 1.2% in 2018-19, 0.3% in 2018-19.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:40:53.855Z">12.40pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the budget deficit is less than half what it was in 2010.</p><p>How fast should he cut the deficit? At the same pace as in the last parliament, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:39:07.357Z">12.39pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:39:01.085Z">12.39pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the growth forecast for 2015 is revised down from 2.5% to 2.4%.</p><p>After that the economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2016, then 2.4% in 2017.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:37:10.311Z">12.37pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne turns to OBR forecasts.</p><p>In the March budget it was thought the economy grew by 2.6% last year. Now we know it grew by 3%.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:36:19.217Z">12.36pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says the economy is growing faster than in any other major economy.</p><p>Some 2m more jobs have been created.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:35:03.818Z">12.35pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne </strong>is starting his statement now.</p><p>It is a budget that puts security first, he says. It recognises the hard work and sacrifice of the people over the last five years. It will put hard-working people first.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:33:24.596Z">12.33pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s <strong>Justin Madders</strong> says, when he questioned the government, he found that they did not know where the Nothern Powerhouse is. Is it just in the prime minister’s imagination?</p><p>Cameron says Labour ignored the north for years. Labour cannot stand the fact his government is doing something about the north.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:27:40.757Z">12.27pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Budget: Govt insiders suggest nobody will be talking about Osborne easing austerity in an hour's time. Expect significant brutality.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:27:08.418Z">12.27pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Cameron tells John Redwood that he “fears for the future” of Greece.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:24:20.829Z">12.24pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Cameron says people who say that the jobs being created under the government are low-paid and part-time are not looking at what is actually happening in places like the Midlands.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:23:41.545Z">12.23pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here is some Twitter comment on David Cameron’s exchanges with Harriet Harman.</p><p>From Sky’s Adam Boulton</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">COMMENT DC did not have answers to HH's issues but blustered through. We are none the wiser on sport participation. Scorers untroubled.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">By far the worst <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a> exchange since Harman took over. Interminable.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Labour in a tricky spot on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EVEL?src=hash">#EVEL</a>. Harman protests about it, but says 'we agree there's a problem', so what is their solution? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cameron is really spinning 'facts' today. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/pmqs?src=hash">#pmqs</a> Even his sports minister <a href="https://twitter.com/tracey_crouch">@tracey_crouch</a> said: "We’ve seen a continued downward trend.."</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Olympics was a great sports event lasting a few weeks. If long term effects don't live up to the hype that's because hype was ott <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/pmqs?src=hash">#pmqs</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:16:37.148Z">12.16pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Snap PMQs verdict</strong>: A comfortable win for Cameron, even if he was deploying some statistical jiggery-pokery during the exchanges on sport. (Harman was asking a specific question about sports participation since 2012, but Cameron brushed her aside with a series of more general sports participation stats.) Harman’s Magna Carta question did not get through Cameron’s defences, and, although, on English votes for English laws (Evel), she had a point about Cameron not consulting the procedure committee, it is hard to score a hit at PMQs with a point about select committee consultation, and Cameron’s general point about Labour’s evasiveness on Evel was more telling.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:12:04.142Z">12.12pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Harman says participation has gone down since the Olympics. In the English manifesto the Tories promised, Cameron said he would consult the Commons precedure committee before introducing English votes for English laws. When did he do this?</p><p>Cameron says there have been consultations with the head of that committee. At least he published an English manifesto, unlike Labour, he says. There is a problem of fairness. He is trying to address this. It is a “very modest proposal”. Will Labour oppose it?</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:08:36.681Z">12.08pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Harman says if we are staying in the convention, we may as well keep the HRA. Has participation in sport gone up or down since the Olympics?</p><p>It has gone up, says Cameron. And there is more activity in primary schools.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:05:29.410Z">12.05pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Harriet Harman</strong> mentions the anniverary of 7/7 and says Cameron celebrated the Magna Carta recently. So why does he want to water down the Human Rights Act?</p><p>Cameron says Magna Carta shows there were human rights before the Human Rights Act. He wants a British bill of rights so more of these decisions are taken by British judges.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:02:47.129Z">12.02pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><strong>Julian Lewis</strong>, a Conservative, says the government should be spending 3% of GDP on defence, not just 25, the Nato target.</p><p><strong>David Cameron</strong> says the government is investing in defence.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T11:01:22.620Z">12.01pm <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>PMQs is about to start.</p><p>I will be covering David Cameron’s exchanges with Harriet Harman, and budget-related answers.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:58:37.393Z">11.58am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here are some budget speech stats.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some Budget speech stats: Osborne's shortest to date was in 2013 (54 min, 28 sec) and his longest was in March 2015 (58 min, 54 sec).</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Osborne's longest in terms of word count was in 2010 (8,810) and his shortest was in 2013 (7,374).</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:56:52.106Z">11.56am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Downing Street has announced there there will be a free vote on changes to the anti-hunting legislation in the Commons next week.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Government have cheekily announced a free vote on fox-hunting an hour before the Budget, keeping it well away from the front pages</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">govt waters down manifesto free vote on hunting act repeal, opts for free vote next Thursday on amendment legalising Scottish-style system&gt;</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">David Cameron likely to vote in favour of relaxing fox hunting ban next week, his spokesman has indicated. 'He believes in freedom to hunt'</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Leak it to the Spectator late on a Tuesday night, then confirm it an hour before the Budget. You'd almost think the Tories are embarrassed.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:55:11.013Z">11.55am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Here’s the traditional scene of the chancellor showing off the red budget box before heading to the commons.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:47:26.218Z">11.47am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/07/george-osborne-20-budget-questions">Hannah Jane Parkinson has done the budget in 20 questions.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:43:53.097Z">11.43am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Lib Dems are complaining that George Osborne has blocked them on Twitter.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Honestly George, let it go. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/budget2015?src=hash">#budget2015</a> <a href="http://t.co/Cg4UjxJmHx">pic.twitter.com/Cg4UjxJmHx</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:35:57.461Z">11.35am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>This is from the Daily Mirror’s Jason Beattie.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cabinet "banged table" after Budget presentation this morning. Presumably with fists rather than heads <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/budget2015?src=hash">#budget2015</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:34:29.981Z">11.34am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>This is what David Cameron’s spokeswoman said about the budget.</p><p>This is a Budget that will put our country firmly on the path from a high tax, high welfare society to a lower tax, lower welfare society. It will provide a strong and solid foundation to secure a better future for people across the UK in the years ahead.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:29:52.416Z">11.29am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Harriet Harman, the acting Labour leader, will respond to the budget in the Commons, but the real interest will be in what the four leadership candidates have to say about George Osborne’s plans. </p><p>Here are tweets from the four candidates setting out some pre-budget points.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tax credits, student grants, Sunday trading ... looks like <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/budget2015?src=hash">#budget2015</a> will be long list of things people weren't told about before Election</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP">@YvetteCooperMP</a> on George Osborne's first Tory budget in <a href="https://twitter.com/HuffPostUK">@HuffPostUK</a>: <a href="http://t.co/WPmba5DapM">http://t.co/WPmba5DapM</a> <a href="http://t.co/xoyIpo4nW0">pic.twitter.com/xoyIpo4nW0</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If the Tories won't tackle low pay in today's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/budget2015?src=hash">#budget2015</a>, I will. <a href="http://t.co/7M6H73ZcNz">http://t.co/7M6H73ZcNz</a> <a href="http://t.co/dDOGjHYHE8">pic.twitter.com/dDOGjHYHE8</a></p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Does Labour stand up to the Tories' miserable and divisive austerity policies," <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/jeremy4leader?src=hash">#jeremy4leader</a> <a href="http://t.co/RD5tk9jMlU">pic.twitter.com/RD5tk9jMlU</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:28:16.325Z">11.28am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The last Conservative-only budget was delivered by Ken Clarke in November 1996, and the Press Association has helpfully reminded us what else was happening at the time:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:24:31.338Z">11.24am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Campaigners are protesting outside Number 10 about the planned welfare cuts in the budget.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Protests at gates of Downing Street over benefit cuts <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a> <a href="http://t.co/KZsqZWc9IK">pic.twitter.com/KZsqZWc9IK</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:20:42.035Z">11.20am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>George Osborne has left Number 11 for the Commons.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T10:01:11.353Z">11.01am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>One of the photographers outside Number 10 this morning is clearly hoping for a job at the Football Association. He shouted ‘Morning girls’ at Nicky Morgan and Amber Rudd as they left cabinet. <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-08/girls-nicky-morgan-unimpressed-by-photographer/">Here’s the ITV footage. </a>They weren’t impressed.</p><p>And here’s the Guardian’s video:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T09:57:45.271Z">10.57am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Although we have had plenty of information about what will be in the budget already, George Osborne is expected to produce at least one “spectacular”.</p><p>The Telegraph’s James Kirkup suggests it could be merging income tax with national insurance.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Re speculation that the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/summerbudget?src=hash">#summerbudget</a> surprise is merger of income tax and NICs, John Redwood worth re-reading: <a href="http://t.co/FRYeTvcjgx">http://t.co/FRYeTvcjgx</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T09:54:47.413Z">10.54am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Anti-austerity campaigners are planning protests across the UK to coincide with the budget, as well as a series of strikes across the capital.</p><p>Our report here:</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/07/budget-osborne-campaigners-protest-demonstrations-die-in">'Oxi to Osborne': UK campaigners take Greek inspiration in budget protests</a> </p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">More security than normal on Whitehall for anticipated budget anti-welfare cuts protests: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SummerBudget?src=hash">#SummerBudget</a> <a href="http://t.co/gmudS5B6HS">pic.twitter.com/gmudS5B6HS</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T09:37:59.704Z">10.37am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>If you are looking for a guide as to how George Osborne can achieve welfare cuts of £12bn, <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/gb/gb2015/ch9_gb2015.pdf">this chapter, from the Institute of Fiscal Studies’ green budget earlier this year (pdf), </a>is about as good as anything.</p><p>Here are the key charts, showing how much various measures would save. They start on page 225.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T09:27:17.105Z">10.27am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>George Osborne has been tweeting about the budget.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today I will present a Conservative Budget - a Budget that puts economic security first <a href="http://t.co/yQ8kD8nmo9">pic.twitter.com/yQ8kD8nmo9</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T09:08:23.360Z">10.08am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>You can read today’s Guardian budget coverage<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/budget"> here.</a></p><p>As for the rest of the papers, here are two comment articles worth reading.</p><p>One of the differences between households and governments that economists always talk about is that the latter has the power of taxation. They can’t borrow “too much”, say the economists. Such an idea is nonsensical, they say, because governments, unlike households, can raise money by using their legal power to demand it from people.</p><p>Yet this assumes that people will agree to let them use that power; it assumes that people will agree to pay the taxes. In America and in Greece, this idea has been tested and found wanting. Governments can much more easily gain consent to borrow money than they can gain consent to pay back the loans ...</p><p>Importantly here, Mr Osborne is proving to be a good thief, adept at pinching bright ideas from others. Labour people, missing the point, squeal that he nicked the Northern Powerhouse theme from them. That comes after he stole the Lib Dem tax policy of jacking up the starting threshold for income tax, and then decorated it with the language of Blue Collar Conservatism, again a concept he’s appropriated from others. In his Budget today, it will be no surprise if he moves on the living wage and the working poor, a cause Boris Johnson has tried to make his own.</p><p> Yet for all the rebranding and restyling, for all the intellectual heavy-lifting and light fingers, Mr Osborne is a contender because of his record, both political and economic. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T09:00:58.844Z">10.00am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3152880/George-Osborne-s-Budget-tax-cut-middle-class-raises-40p-threshold.html">According to the Daily Mail, George Osborne will limit child tax credits so that they are only paid for the first two children in any family.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:53:13.998Z">9.53am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Ever wonder what the Lib Dems are up to? This is from <strong>Phil Reilly</strong>, a Lib Dem official in the last government.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1st budget day for 5 years I haven't spent trying in vain to get credit for Lib Dems for raising tax-free allowance. Might make a cup of tea</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:41:52.488Z">9.41am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.sunnation.co.uk/osbo-to-unveil-the-boldest-budget-in-a-decade/">Today Tom Newton Dunn in the Sun says that George Osborne will cut most benefits for young people under the age of 21 in today’s budget.</a> He also says that Osborne could cut tax credits for the under-25s. The story quotes a minister saying:</p><p>This will be one of the boldest budgets in a very long time, in more than a decade certainly. It will fundamentally recast the relationship between the state, the individual and the employer.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:40:53.086Z">9.40am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Markets are edging higher ahead of the Budget statement, with the FTSE 100 up around 0.4%.</p><p>But traders have more on their minds than Osborne’s speech, with an emergency summit on Greece called for Sunday, which could sign the country’s exit from the eurozone. China is also a worry, with <strong><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/08/china-stock-markets-continue-nosedive-as-regulator-warns-of-panic">its markets continuing to fall and regulators warning of “panic” among investors.</a> </strong></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:27:02.771Z">9.27am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The cabinet meeting has broken up.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Chancellor must have plenty to talk about: the pre-Budget Cabinet briefing has broken up after an hour and 20 minutes.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:15:23.282Z">9.15am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/08/uk-economy-six-summer-budget-graphs-you-need-to-see?CMP=share_btn_tw">Katie Allen explains the background to the budget in six graphs.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:11:21.186Z">9.11am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>An artist, Kaya Mar, has been posing outside Number 10 with this picture of George Osborne. It is probably not one that the chancellor will be hanging in his living room.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:07:44.769Z">9.07am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Osborne and the Conservatives have benefitted from a recovery in the economy, with GDP growing for nine consecutive quarters.</p><p> But the chancellor may have to announce a slightly worse outlook for the year, given signs of weakness in the first quarter. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which produces independent forecasts for the government, forecast in March that growth this year would be 2.5%, but this may now be scaled back to 2.4% or even 2.3% as it takes into account the effects of any spending cuts.</p><p>If the OBR revises down the growth forecast for the next few years on the back of the spending cuts, or expresses doubt that the government can reach its deficit targets during this parliament, then we could see the pound struggle, particularly against the US dollar.</p><p>[But] if Osborne announces any measures to boost the manufacturing sector then it may limit the pound’s downside, particularly after weak manufacturing production caused a sharp drop [against the dollar] on Tuesday.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T08:04:12.301Z">9.04am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Treasury has tweeted a picture of the budget document being printed.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The document's printed, the speech is prepped; only 14 hours until <a href="https://twitter.com/George_Osborne">@George_Osborne</a> presents his <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SummerBudget?src=hash">#SummerBudget</a> <a href="https://t.co/QByVtiieop">https://t.co/QByVtiieop</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T07:56:56.991Z">8.56am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/budget-2015-maintenance-grants-for-poorer-students-to-be-scrapped-in-next-round-of-cuts-10373507.html">According to Andrew Grice in the Independent, </a>George Osborne will announce that he is cutting maintenance grants for poorer students in the budget today. Here’s an extract from his story.</p><p>Maintenance grants for university students from low-income families will be scrapped and converted into loans in the Government’s next round of spending cuts ...</p><p>At present, students in England and Wales from families with annual household incomes of £25,000 or less qualify for maintenance grants of £3,387 a year.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T07:47:26.275Z">8.47am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The cabinet normally meets on a Tuesday, but this week’s meeting was postponed until today, so that George Osborne could brief his colleagues on the budget measures. Here is some video of ministers arriving at Number 10 this morning.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Cabinet gathers to hear from George Osborne about his first all-Tory Budget: <a href="https://t.co/0BQyawwe9P">pic.twitter.com/0BQyawwe9P</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeChurcher">@JoeChurcher</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T07:39:40.180Z">8.39am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>The Tory MP <strong>Chris Philp</strong> has tweeted a picture of the scene in the members’ lobby in the Commons earlier, where MPs were queuing up to reserve a seat for today’s budget.</p><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Waiting with other MPs to reserve seats in the Commons for today's budget <a href="http://t.co/goWrdJYK5S">pic.twitter.com/goWrdJYK5S</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-07-08T07:30:25.045Z">8.30am <span class="timezone">BST</span></time> </p><p>Any politician - or, indeed, anyone remotely interested in the craft of politics - dreams about the laws they would pass if given a totally free hand. Of course, politicians never get a totally free hand; even a prime minister with a large majority is constrained by internal party politics, Whitehall inertia, the judiciary, and a host of other factors. But for George Osborne, the chancellor, today will probably be as close as he will ever get to that moment of maximum elbow room. This is his seventh budget, but his first without Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander vetoing some of his ideas. The Conservative majority is small, but Tory MPs are buoyed by their surprise election victory and Osborne will never have a better chance to get difficult measures through the Commons. As a result, we’ve been told that this will be a very big budget indeed - one that will define the government for the next five years.</p><p>A budget statement lasts about an hour, but these days budgets have become like Indian weddings or music festivals - a week-long news event, with the first stories coming out well in advance. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/07/summer-budget-2015-what-to-expect-from-the-chancellor">As a result we have already had quite a lot of detail about what is coming.</a> (Whether these stories are “leaks”, or proper Treasury announcements, is sometimes a moot point - since the Lib Dems left government, the supply of proper budget leaks has somewhat dried up.) And new information emerged last night, as Patrick Wintour has reported <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/07/george-osborne-slow-pace--12bn-welfare-budget-slash">in the Guardian’s budget story.</a> Here’s how it starts.</p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/georgeosborne">George Osborne</a> will use the first Conservative budget in 18 years to slash billions from in-work tax credits and housing benefit, although the chancellor is likely to slow the pace of an expected £12bn cuts to the welfare bill.</p><p>An initial cut of £8bn in welfare over two years was being predicted on Tuesday night, closer to the pace of welfare cuts agreed under the previous coalition government and intended to protect Osborne from criticism he is likely to face from Labour and charities.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-live">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsGeorge OsborneBudgetBudget 2015 (July)Tax and spendingEconomicsBusinessEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyWelfareSocietyTaxTax creditsBenefitsIncome taxFamily financesMoneyState benefitsWed, 08 Jul 2015 17:08:35 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/08/budget-2015-livePhotograph: Paul Hackett/ReutersPhotograph: Paul Hackett/ReutersAndrew Sparrow and Nick Fletcher2015-07-08T17:08:35ZGrowth, what growth? Thatcherism fails to produce the goodshttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/10/growth-what-growth-thatcherism-fails-to-produce-the-goods
<p>Cambridge University analysis casts doubt on free market economics showing GDP and productivity grew faster before 1979</p><p>Margaret Thatcher’s policies of privatisation, light-touch regulation and low income tax failed to boost growth, according to a new study that casts doubt on the merits of free market economies.</p><p>In a wide-ranging analysis of Britain’s performance in the decades before and after 1979, economists at the University of Cambridge say the liberal economic policies pioneered by Thatcher have been accompanied by higher unemployment and inequality. At the same time, contrary to widespread belief, GDP and productivity have grown more slowly since 1979 compared with the previous three decades.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/10/growth-what-growth-thatcherism-fails-to-produce-the-goods">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessTax and spendingMargaret ThatcherPoliticsEconomic policyEconomic growth (GDP)Economic recoveryUK newsFinancial sectorTrade unionsPrivatisationTue, 09 Jun 2015 23:01:04 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/10/growth-what-growth-thatcherism-fails-to-produce-the-goodsPhotograph: Neville Marriner/REXPhotograph: Neville Marriner/REXKatie Allen2015-06-09T23:01:04ZA more radical approach to debt: do nothinghttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/02/public-debt-why-keep-cutting-why-not-just-live-with-it
<p>IMF economists explore radical approach for states with large public debts – if the cure is worse than the disease, why not just live with the debt?</p><p>One of the most obvious legacies of the global financial crisis is the sharp increase in public debt. Countries scrambling to avert the collapse of their economies or banking systems built up stocks of debt at a pace previously unseen during peacetime. </p><p>Attention has more recently turned to how quickly that debt should be paid down. In the UK, Chancellor George Osborne has made cutting the national debt as a share of GDP a key pledge. </p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion">The austerity delusion | Paul Krugman</a> </p><p>“While there are some countries where clearly debt needs to be brought down, there are others which are in a more comfortable position to fund themselves at exceptionally low interest rates, and which could indeed simply live with their debt (allowing their debt ratio to decline through growth or windfall revenues),” Ostry and Ghosh write in a blogpost to accompany the discussion note.</p><p>“This is a case where the cure may be worse than the disease: paying down the debt would require further distorting the economy, with a corresponding toll on investment and growth,” says the discussion note, which the Fund points out does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy.</p><p>“The mantra that it is always desirable to reduce public debt must not go unquestioned. A comparison of costs and benefits must underpin policy advice. For countries in the green zone, the case for living with the debt is a strong one.”</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/02/public-debt-why-keep-cutting-why-not-just-live-with-it">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessTax and spendingPublic financeInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)Government borrowingEconomic growth (GDP)Economic recoveryGlobal economyTue, 02 Jun 2015 14:30:07 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/02/public-debt-why-keep-cutting-why-not-just-live-with-itPhotograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty ImagesKatie Allen2015-06-02T14:30:07ZIFS: no magic money tree for politicians to shakehttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/28/ifs-politicians-voters-social-security-tax-cuts-election
<p>Being upfront with voters about social security cuts that would be necessary to finance tax cuts is not seen as an election-winning strategy</p><p>Be afraid. Be very afraid. That was the message from the Institute for Fiscal Studies as it dissected the tax and benefit proposals of what are for now the three main Westminster parties.</p><p>The IFS said the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats were as one in trying to hoodwink voters. Despite what is being said on the campaign trail, there is no magic money tree for the politicians to shake. Promises now will be followed by hard choices later.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/28/election-2015-taxpayers-worse-off-under-every-party-experts-say">Election 2015: taxpayers worse off under every party, experts say</a> </p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/28/do-the-parties-sums-add-up-how-the-ifs-became-the-ultimate-arbiter">Do the parties’ sums add up? How the IFS became the ultimate arbiter</a> </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/28/ifs-politicians-voters-social-security-tax-cuts-election">Continue reading...</a>Institute for Fiscal StudiesBusinessEconomicsThinktanksGeneral election 2015ConservativesLabourLiberal DemocratsPoliticsUK newsTax and spendingTue, 28 Apr 2015 11:28:40 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/28/ifs-politicians-voters-social-security-tax-cuts-electionPhotograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty ImagesLarry Elliott Economics editor2015-04-28T11:28:40ZDid the last Labour governments really hike taxes by £1,895 a year?https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/apr/07/did-the-last-labour-governments-really-hike-taxes-by-1895-a-year
<p>IFS has estimated that Labour’s changes to income tax actually represent a tax rise of £600 per household</p><p>George Osborne has stepped up his campaign against Labour on tax by claiming that the governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown increased taxes on earnings on the average household by £1,895 a year in real terms.<br></p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/06/david-cameron-defectors-ukip-appeal-vote-tories-general-election">The chancellor said on Tuesday</a>: “When it comes to tax rises, Ed Miliband and Ed Balls have done it all before – and they would do it all over again, if they had the chance. Higher taxes and higher debts under Labour would cost jobs and take Britain back to square one.”</p><p>Some of this increase was the result of income growth, some the result of fiscal drag as tax thresholds didn’t increase as quickly as peoples’ incomes during this period, increasing the proportion of income paid in tax, and only a part was the result of active policy changes.”</p><p>Of course, Labour made a lot of other changes to the tax and benefit system, most notably increasing the generosity of benefits for low-income families with children and pensioners. Tax credits were an important part of this.”</p><p>Those calculations overlook non-working households – most notably the retired. So their figures seem higher than mine, but there is more than one way to skin a cat.”</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/apr/07/did-the-last-labour-governments-really-hike-taxes-by-1895-a-year">Continue reading...</a>General election 2015Institute for Fiscal StudiesEconomicsTax and spendingBusinessPoliticsLabourUK newsTue, 07 Apr 2015 11:39:44 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/apr/07/did-the-last-labour-governments-really-hike-taxes-by-1895-a-yearPhotograph: Michael Stephens/PA Archive/Press Association ImagesPhotograph: Michael Stephens/PA Archive/Press Association ImagesJulia Kollewe2015-04-07T11:39:44ZTaxing times: banks are the golden goose that won't hiss too muchhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/apr/05/financial-sector-tobin-tax-vat-bonuses-banks
<p>With a rise in VAT, national insurance and income tax off limits, the Treasury has picked up on the idea that the financial sector is under-taxed</p><p>Solemn commitments have been made. David Cameron and Ed Miliband have wrung promises out of each other. The tax arms race has escalated to the point where the options available to Labour and the Conservatives for raising extra revenue are narrowing.</p><p>Yet, taxes are still likely to go up once the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/general-election-2015">election</a> is over. Traditionally, political parties that say “they have no plans” to raise taxes before polling day find a compelling reason to do so as soon as voters have made their choice. As the Institute for Fiscal Studies has noted, if a government is going to raise taxes, it does so in the first budget after a general election.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/apr/05/financial-sector-tobin-tax-vat-bonuses-banks">Continue reading...</a>BusinessFinancial sectorTobin taxBankingEconomicsTax and spendingPoliticsExecutive pay and bonusesSun, 05 Apr 2015 10:39:44 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/apr/05/financial-sector-tobin-tax-vat-bonuses-banksPhotograph: GARY HERSHORN/REUTERSPhotograph: GARY HERSHORN/REUTERSLarry Elliott Economics editor2015-04-05T10:39:44ZSo, George, how exactly will you cut the welfare bill?https://www.theguardian.com/politics/economics-blog/2015/mar/19/so-george-how-exactly-will-you-cut-the-welfare-bill
<p>Housing benefit and pensions are likely to keep rising, as will tax credits. As the Institute for Fiscal Studies says, it’s time we knew where the cuts will fall</p><p>Any challenge from the Institute for Fiscal Studies is a hard one for George Osborne to dodge.</p><p>The tax-and-spending watchdog wants him to explain how he plans to cut welfare spending in the next parliament. </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/economics-blog/2015/mar/19/so-george-how-exactly-will-you-cut-the-welfare-bill">Continue reading...</a>WelfareGeorge OsborneBenefitsPoliticsUK newsInstitute for Fiscal StudiesBusinessEconomicsThinktanksPensionsMoneyHousing benefitCommunitiesHousingSocietyConservativesInflationTax and spendingThu, 19 Mar 2015 18:55:28 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/economics-blog/2015/mar/19/so-george-how-exactly-will-you-cut-the-welfare-billPhotograph: Yui Mok/PAPhotograph: Yui Mok/PAPhillip Inman economics correspondent2015-03-19T18:55:28ZIFS says coalition tax and benefit changes have hit poorest the most: Politics Live bloghttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog
<p>Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including George Osborne and Ed Balls’ post-budget interviews, and the IFS post-budget briefing</p><ul><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550a889ee4b003b0dff8f4ca">Osborne announces new criminal offences to tackle tax evasion</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550abe19e4b0360de01dbb69">Lunchtime summary</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550acab0e4b003b0dff8f51b">IFS says coalition’s tax and benefit changes have hit the poorest the most</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550ad0f3e4b0d8348eda9752">Paul Johnson’s IFS post-budget briefing - Summary </a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550aeabae4b09cf44ffd4ab8">Afternoon summary</a></li></ul><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T15:47:09.131Z">3.47pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>When I first came here as prime minister five years ago, Britain and Greece were virtually in the same boat. We had similar-sized budget deficits,” he said. </p><p>The reason we are in a different position is we took long-term difficult decisions and we had all of the hard work and effort of the British people. I am determined we do not go backwards. </p><p>It’s going to be a very dirty, nasty general election campaign. It’s already getting very personal. Every day we see these volleys being thrown at David Cameron from one side and then the other side throw it back at Ed Miliband. And everyone seems to throw it at me on a daily basis. Our job is to turn the other cheek, to rise above it and to say what we are for.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T15:18:59.110Z">3.18pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are four of the most interesting graphs from <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/events/1140">the rest of the IFS post-budget briefing.</a></p><p>This one shows how George Osborne is only able to say that debt is falling as a percentage of national income in 2015-16 because he has brought forward assets sales.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T14:52:58.721Z">2.52pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Ed Miliband</strong> has put out a statement welcoming what the IFS has said about the budget. Here it is in full. </p><p>It’s now 24 hours since the Chancellor boasted that his was a budget to make Britain walk tall. Now we know the truth. We now know this is a budget which will bring public services to their knees. Cuts in the coming years twice as deep as any we have seen. These cuts would be devastating for our National Health Service. In the words of the Office of Budget Responsibility, the government watchdog, which the chancellor could not bear to read out: “A much sharper squeeze on real spending... than anything seen over the past five years.” Confirmed today by the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies.</p><p>This scale of cuts cannot be made without cutting our NHS. The truth is that this will take public spending back to the level of the 1930s. And on living standards, the chancellor tried to tell people they have never had it so good. In fact, he was a chancellor who has never had it so wrong. In the last hour the Institute of Fiscal Studies has confirmed what people all over the country already knew – that pay has fallen under this government.</p><p>The cuts of more than 5% implied in each of 2016-17 and 2017-18 are twice the size of any year’s cuts over this parliament. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T14:24:36.850Z">2.24pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/audio/2015/mar/19/coalition-budget-politics-podcast">Here’s today’s Politics Weekly podcast, with <strong>Robert Chote </strong>from<strong> </strong>the Office for Budget Responsibility, <strong>Gavin Kelly</strong> from the Resolution Foundation, with <strong>Tom Clark, </strong><strong>Jonathan Freedland</strong> and <strong>Larry Elliott </strong>from the Guardian.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T14:12:27.783Z">2.12pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>And here are the key points from <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/budgets/budget2015/budget2015_pj.pdf">the opening statement</a> by <strong>Paul Johnson</strong>, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, at the IFS’s post-budget briefing.</p><p>As far as tax and benefit changes are concerned, benefit cuts have hit low income working age people. Tax increases have hit those on the highest incomes much the hardest. People on middle and upper middle incomes have been remarkably insulated on average from tax and benefit changes.</p><p>Average household incomes have just about regained their pre-recession levels. They are finally rising and probably will be higher in 2015 than they were in 2010, and possibly higher than their 2009 peak. But that still represents by far the slowest recovery in incomes in modern history. </p><p>Mr Osborne is relying on forecasts of income through to the end of 2015. All of the real increase since 2010 is in the forecast. It occurs in the last year, in 2015. There is no actual increase in the data we have so far. </p><p>It is now almost two years since he announced his intention of cutting welfare spending by £12bn. Since then the main announcement has been the plan not to cut anything from the main pensioner benefits. We have been told about no more than £2bn of the planned cuts to working age benefits. And remember apparently the “plan” is to have those £12bn of cuts in place by 2017-18. It is time we knew more about what they might actually involve ...</p><p>The chancellor argues that because he is committed to £12bn of welfare cuts and £5bn of anti tax avoidance measures the required cuts to public service spending are much more modest. But if he really wants us to believe that then he needs to be more explicit about how he actually thinks he can cut welfare spending and raise substantial additional sums from clamping down on tax avoidance. </p><p>With further changes to the taxation of annuities it is in changing the structure of the taxation of savings and pensions that he has been most radical over the past five years. This is possibly the one area of lasting structural change in the tax system for which he will be remembered. </p><p>Our latest estimates suggest that Labour would be able to meet its fiscal targets with no cuts at all after 2015-16. </p><p>The budget suggests spending cuts of £40 billion by 2018-19, but “just” £26 billion by 2019-20. Even with a majority Conservative government is that pattern really the most likely outcome? </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T13:23:12.868Z">1.23pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/budgets/budget2015/budget2015_pj.pdf">Here is the full text of the opening statement from Paul Johnson, the IFS director at the briefing (pdf).</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T13:22:44.186Z">1.22pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>IFS identifies big variation on public spending cuts plans. Estimates Labour could meet its targets without ANY further cuts after 2015/16</p><p>Labour could make little if any spending cuts if they chose says IFS - cue pressure on Balls from within Labour movement to make it so</p><p>IFS says 'rollercoaster' pattern of spending identified is unlikely: cuts even in majority Tory govt will not be more dramatic than this gov</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T13:15:59.495Z">1.15pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ post-budget briefing has just started.</p><p>Here are the key points we’ve had so far.</p><p>"It is in changing the structure of taxation of savings &amp; pensions ... for which [Osborne] will be remembered" Johnson of the IFS</p><p>IFS’ Paul Johnson: however u calculate it “we are for sure much worse off on average than we’d have any reasonable hope of being in 2007”</p><p>IFS puts paid to the squeezed middle argument: people on middle and upper-middle incomes have been insulated from tax and benefit changes.</p><p>Looking at changes implemented by the coalition, the poorest have seen biggest proportionate losses.</p><p>IFS: Poorest hit hardest by tax and spend changes by the coalition</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T13:07:55.460Z">1.07pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The era of ‘Cathy Come Home’ is not my vision for the future of Britain ...</p><p>So the fiscal plans I am publishing today are based on a further £6bn pounds from tax dodgers, and an additional £6bn of tax rises. Those in high-value properties, the banking sector, and others should pay more, rather than asking those working on low incomes to accept less.</p><p>I thought statements in the House of Commons were supposed to be from ministers speaking collectively on behalf of the Government. [Alexander] has totally abused that privilege, assembling MPs this morning on a false pretence - I know it’s usual to have several days of budget response, but not several budgets.</p><p>He’s been saying that for the last two years and has given us almost no details about what that actually looks like. I think it’s rather disappointing that so far in, we still haven’t heard any details about this.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T12:43:36.815Z">12.43pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4386266.ece">Tim Montgomerie in the Times (paywall) is very good today. </a>He describes vividly how Lynton Crosby operates.</p><p>At a recent Downing Street meeting there was a lively discussion about fine-tuning the Tories’ message on the economy. One participant urged more help for the low-paid. Another worried that further action was needed to quell anger about the banks. One wanted a big emphasis on housebuilding. One suggested that the idea of devolving power to local authorities in the north should be put centre stage in the budget to prove the Conservative commitment to rebalance the economy.</p><p>Everyone around the table wanted a slightly different tweaking of the Conservative pitch. Lynton Crosby, the party’s election strategist, then lifted his head: “All very fascinating . . .” (my source says he uttered these words in a tone that suggested he might not have been entirely captivated) “ . . . but voters only need to know two things about the economy: it was broken five years ago by the other lot and it’s OK again now under us.”</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T12:15:46.879Z">12.15pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/EllieJPrice/status/578526921300017152">My colleague<strong> Michael White</strong> has done a write-up of how the budget has been received in the papers. </a>His conclusion?</p><p>Rarely can I remember such a disparate range of verdicts as to what Osborne’s sixth budget meant, let alone his achievement – or lack of it – since the first of the six was unveiled shortly after the unexpected formation of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition following the indecisive election in May 2010.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T12:12:19.811Z">12.12pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Danny Alexander has just staged a photocall with his yellow box.</p><p>Treasury sources refuse to open the alternative budget box, so we are not sure what's in it. <a href="http://t.co/XDyYB0acW1">pic.twitter.com/XDyYB0acW1</a></p><p>Unconvinced parliamentary sketch writers admire Danny's yellow box <a href="http://t.co/5tKHSMrvIw">pic.twitter.com/5tKHSMrvIw</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T12:06:33.469Z">12.06pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here is<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection"> today’s Guardian seat projection.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:36:54.927Z">11.36am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Judging by Twitter, this unprecedented Lib Dem financial statement does not seem to be working out too well. </p><p>From the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman</p><p>Lib Dems were v.upbeat about the Danny statement yesterday, saying it was ‘unprecedented’. I suspect it will also be ‘unrepeated'</p><p>Safe to say,I'm not sure this is how Danny Alexander hoped the Lib Dem alternative Budget would go.Clegg seems to have left half way through</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/Pwebstertimes">@Pwebstertimes</a> IMHO he looks pained and embarrassed. Which would be appropriate in the circs! Where they hell are the rest of them???</p><p>Last night senior Lib Dem declared themselves happy with whole Budget. Today they r disowning. If I'm confused, what chance have the public?</p><p>Labour brands the Lib Dems' 'Yellow Budget' a 'farce'. Hard to argue, given they signed up to the real Budget only yesterday</p><p>Commons benches strikingly empty behind Danny Alexander and Vince Cable. Could they find *nobody* willing to sit there? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:24:34.359Z">11.24am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here is<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/414486/Fiscal_Scenarios_FINAL4.pdf"> the “alternative fiscal path” document produced by the Treasury (pdf).</a></p><p>And here is<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tackling-tax-evasion-and-avoidance"> the Treasury paper explaining the new measures on tax evasion (pdf).</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:22:24.890Z">11.22am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s <strong>Chris Bryant</strong> says George Osborne announced an orchestra tax relief yesterday. But something only counts as an orchestra if it includes wind instruments, strings, percussion and brass. That excludes many orchestras.</p><p>Alexander says that is a serious point. He will take it up with HMRC.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:21:00.164Z">11.21am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Adam Afriyie</strong>, a Conservative, says the Lib Dems have betrayed their voters. This display is the Westminster bubble at its worst. He says voters will make up their own minds.</p><p>Alexander says Afriyie should welcome what the government has achieved.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:19:21.254Z">11.19am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Alexander is replying to Leslie.</p><p>He says no resources were spent on this, beyond the time of civil servants.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:17:07.736Z">11.17am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Chris Leslie</strong>, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, is responding.</p><p>He says this is a farce. It is a party political statement, not government business.</p><p>Doesn’t he realised how two-faced they look? They want to be in government, and out of government.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:12:03.316Z">11.12am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Alexander is now listing the three new measures being introduced to toughen the law on tax evasion. (See<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550a889ee4b003b0dff8f4ca"> 8.47am.) </a></p><p>Fines will be in proportion to the amount of tax being evaded, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:08:50.683Z">11.08am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The heckling is coming from the Labour benches.</p><p>V heated scenes in the Commons as Danny Alexander tries to give his 'Lib Dem budget'. Labour benches shouting. Danny ploughing on</p><p>"They don't like to hear it" on Labour benches <a href="https://twitter.com/dannyalexander">@DannyAlexander</a> says but given the level of shouting in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HoC?src=hash">#HoC</a> I doubt anyone can hear it</p><p>A joke, an abuse, outrageous...just some of the heckles being hurled at Danny Alexander giving his Lib Dem alternative budget <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a></p><p>Danny A desperately trying to get heard above Lab barracking in the Commons. Not getting much help from Bercow. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/budget2015?src=hash">#budget2015</a></p><p>Vince deems to be enjoy ing Danny's diccomfort. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a></p><p>Watching Danny Alexander &amp; 16 LDs attempting to deliver the You Won't Believe It's Not Budget speech. Labour MPs trying to out-chunter him.</p><p>Gwynne plonks the Red book infront of Danny Alexander "That's your Budget, there" Speaker tells him off. DA ploughing on but it's hard work</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:04:34.243Z">11.04am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Danny Alexander</strong>, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, is speaking now.</p><p>He says there is an alternative to the spending plans set out by the Conservatives. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T11:00:57.217Z">11.00am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>John Bercow</strong>, the Commons Speaker, says ministerial statements are supposed to be ministerial. They are not meant to be used for party purposes.</p><p>He hopes Danny Alexander will bear this in mind, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T10:56:22.456Z">10.56am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Excitement builds in the Commons Chamber ahead of Danny Alexander’s alternative Budget <a href="http://t.co/hgnL5YyFJE">pic.twitter.com/hgnL5YyFJE</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T10:54:26.607Z">10.54am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>In his speech at the Lib Dem spring conference at the weekend <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/14/nick-cleggs-qa-at-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live-blog#block-550412fce4b0781f7aee0310"><strong>Danny Alexander</strong> looked ahead to the day when he would be delivering “a Liberal Democrat budget”. </a>He even produced a yellow budget box to illustrate his point.</p><p>It seemed like a moment of delusional wishful thinking. But, in an unprecedented move, Alexander will be making a Lib Dem finance statement in the Commons in just a few minutes. It is not a full budget, but he will set out Lib Dem spending plans, which are different from Conservative ones, and they will be explained in an official Treasury document. Statements of this kind are normally for government business, not party business, but the Lib Dems insisted on being allowed to deliver this one. Alexander argued that it would be unfair for George Osborne to be allowed to present a Conservative budget in the Commons so close to the election if he did not get the chance to put his alternative too.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T10:23:23.910Z">10.23am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are the key points from Nick Clegg’s Call Clegg phone-in.</p><p>I actually share President Obama’s views much more than David Cameron’s. I think it is extremely worrying. It cannot be more alarming to have seen Binyamin Netanyahu, in the latter stages of the election campaign in Israel, do something that no leading Israeli politician has ever done, which is to rule out the prospect of a two-state solution. The whole push for peace, for decades now, has been premised on the point that at some point the Israeli nation and a Palestinian state can be created to live in peaceful co-existence with each other. It is an astonishing thing that he should have departed from that long, long tradition. I think it is quite right that the White House has expressed serious misgivings about that.</p><p>And I have to say to you, if Binyamin Netanyahu now unilaterally has decided to rule out the prospect of a Palestinian state, then I think it is inevitable that the British parliament, as it voted to a few months ago, should rule a Palestinian state in. In other words, that we should in response - and it would be in response to extreme provocation from Netanyahu - act to recognise a Palestinian state. It cannot be right, given that this is the crucible of so much violence and division across so many communities, that one man, in what I assume was a desperate attempt to curry some votes, should basically tear up the basic tramlines on which a peace deal is likely to occur ...</p><p>The Conservatives are departing quite radically [from the coalition’s approach to spending], lurching away from the approach which we’ve taken over the last half a decade. Over the last five years, we have basically taken a mixture of tax increases and spending reductions, welfare reductions, action on tax avoidance, to start balancing the books. That’s allowed us to halve the deficit as a proportion of our nation’s wealth. </p><p>The Conservatives announced last autumn that they are going to lurch away from that and only nobble the working-age poor and only the working-age poor will make additional sacrifices to balance the books. I don’t think that’s fair, I don’t think it’s right to ask for £1,500 off the 8m poorest families in this country, which is what the Conservatives want to do.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:42:23.545Z">9.42am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: At your party conference t<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/15/lib-dem-members-run-sweepstake-on-general-election-seat-retention">here was a stall with people betting on how many seats you would get.</a> Someone sarcastically said 150, as Clegg promised in 2008. And the party tried to cover it up.</em></p><p>Clegg says he does not know anything about that. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:39:17.920Z">9.39am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: What is happening with the TV debates?</em></p><p>Clegg says he thinks David Cameron and Ed Cameron get one-to-one interviews with Jeremy Paxman, followed by a seven-party debate ..</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:36:25.563Z">9.36am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Is it true that <a href="http://www.westbriton.co.uk/Cornwall-Council-plans-spend-500-000-year-Cornish/story-20211791-detail/story.html">you are spending £500,000 on teaching people to speak Cornish?</a></em></p><p>Clegg says he does not remember the details, but he says it is important to keep the Cornish language alive. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:34:45.379Z">9.34am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Clegg says he has given up normal smoking. He is now vaping, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:32:49.881Z">9.32am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Do you welcome Binyamin Netanyahu’s election is Israel? David Cameron said he did at an event last night?</em></p><p>Clegg says he does not welcome that. Like President Obama, he says he finds it “extremely worrying”. Netanyahu ruled out a two-state solution in a desperate bid to shore up votes.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:25:55.605Z">9.25am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Why do you accept claims that unemployment has fallen when most of these jobs are on zero hours contracts?</em></p><p>Clegg says that is not true. There around 600,000 zero hours contracts. And there are around 30m people working in Britain.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:25:50.358Z">9.25am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>We know what George Osborne makes of the Sun’s front page in London. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog#block-550a889ee4b003b0dff8f4ca">8.47am.)</a> But I wonder what he makes of this.</p><p>If you thought the Sun's "epic strut" frontpage was bad... here's the Scottish version <a href="http://t.co/DwUhFL7Yrl">pic.twitter.com/DwUhFL7Yrl</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:20:23.532Z">9.20am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Clegg says, in all Ed Balls’s “interminable” interviews this morning, he has not explained how he would balance the books. </p><p>He says the Lib Dems want to stick to the measured, balanced plan that the coalition has adopted.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:17:08.231Z">9.17am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: There was nothing in the budget for me?</em></p><p>What about the personal allowance, Clegg asks.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:13:56.149Z">9.13am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Clegg says the OBR is making a statistical assumption about the future that is not going to happen.</p><p>They ignore potential future measures on issues like tax avoidance.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:11:31.498Z">9.11am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Nick Clegg </strong>is hosting his Call Clegg phone-in now.</p><p><em>Q: Are you publishing a Lib Dem budget today?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T09:05:42.835Z">9.05am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Ed Balls</strong>, the shadow chancellor, has also been giving interviews this morning. Here are the key points he’s been making. </p><p>I don’t think those cuts are going to be possible for George Osborne. He’s going to end up either cutting our National Health Service or raising VAT. </p><p>You only solve that by building more affordable housing and getting the house prices more affordable. [Osborne] did nothing on that.</p><p>We say why don’t you put the top rate of income tax back up to 50p for people earning over £150,000? That will be a fairer way to do it.</p><p>Sensible spending cuts, some tax rises at the top, more action on wages and tackling the abuse of zero-hours contracts. A more balanced plan which will get the deficit down but not do so at the expense of our National Health Service.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:47:23.148Z">8.47am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are the key points from George Osborne’s interviews.</p><p>We’ll be announcing, first of all, a new strict liability criminal offence. What that basically means is you won’t have any excuses any more if you’ve got an offshore bank account. If you’re evading tax, you’re breaking the law, and this will be a new power for the courts and for the prosecutors to go after you.</p><p>Second, we’re going to look at a new criminal offence that you can’t help someone evade tax. This is for the accountants and the other companies that might help someone evade tax – that’s a brand new criminal offence.</p><p>I almost spilt my coffee this morning when I read the front page of The Sun. What’s great is that they have always got a way of bringing life to the budget and it’s the geniuses of The Sun who can come up with that front page.</p><p>Thursday's The Sun front page: George's epic strut <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/tomorrowspaperstoday?src=hash">#tomorrowspaperstoday</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bbcpapers?src=hash">#bbcpapers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2015?src=hash">#Budget2015</a> <a href="http://t.co/6I9LkjNmjn">pic.twitter.com/6I9LkjNmjn</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:27:08.243Z">8.27am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne admits productivity is weak. It has been for many decades.</p><p>He is not someone who says there is no role for government; far from it. Government can help build a northern powerhouse. But it needs to sort out the debt.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:24:33.355Z">8.24am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: In 2003 you talked about financial products helping people avoid tax.</em></p><p>Osborne says he was pointing out that, under Labour, there were loopholes. In government he has addressed this. Rich business people used to boast about paying less tax than their cleaners; he stopped that. People used to evade stamp duty; he has stopped that.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:22:05.342Z">8.22am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Would your new tax avoidance laws lead to Lord Green being prosecuted?</em></p><p>Osborne says he cannot comment on individual cases. But today he is proposing new criminal powers to tackle tax evasion.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:20:17.621Z">8.20am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: The prime minister says defence spending should rise. How can you square that with the cuts you are planning?</em></p><p>Osborne says he is not proposing deeper cuts. He is proposing cuts at the same pace as over the last five years.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:17:55.224Z">8.17am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: But people have a right to know where the £12bn will come from?</em></p><p>Osborne says the government has saved £21bn from welfare in this parliament. People can judge him on his record. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:14:57.022Z">8.14am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>James Naughtie is interviewing <strong>George Osborne</strong>. Osborne is in Tilbury, Essex.</p><p><em>Q: Your plans involved what the OBR calls a “rollercoaster” of public spending. Will you tell us where the axe will fall?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:10:42.006Z">8.10am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-31956925">And here’s the BBC’s overnight round-up of what’s in today’s papers, including a picture gallery of the front pages.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:09:35.358Z">8.09am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are today’s YouGov polling figures.</p><p>Update: Lab lead at 1 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 18th Mar - Con 33%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%; APP -15 <a href="http://t.co/wcSPwG5PNt">http://t.co/wcSPwG5PNt</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2015-03-19T08:03:14.653Z">8.03am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/18/george-osborne-offers-few-giveaways-but-deep-public-spending-cuts">Yesterday we had the budget.</a> But often it takes 24 hours for the best analysis to emerge, and that will be the focus of the day.</p><p>George Osborne, the chancellor, Ed Balls, his Labour shadow, and Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, have all been giving interviews already. I will round them up shortly.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsGeneral election 2015BusinessEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyBudgetTax and spendingLabourConservativesLiberal DemocratsEd BallsGeorge OsborneDanny AlexanderEconomicsTax avoidanceThu, 19 Mar 2015 15:47:09 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blogPhotograph: Sky NewsPhotograph: Sky NewsAndrew Sparrow2015-03-19T15:47:09ZCBI urges help for medium-sized firms in upcoming budgethttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/04/cbi-urges-help-medium-sized-firms-upcoming-budget
<p>Business group asks George Osborne for measures to boost growth of UK’s <em>Mittelstand </em>in last budget before the general election</p><p>Chancellor George Osborne should use his final budget before the general election to help Britain’s medium-sized firms while sticking to his deficit-cutting plans, the business lobby group CBI has said.</p><p><a href="http://news.cbi.org.uk/">CBI</a> director-general John Cridland says the UK’s equivalent of Germany’s widely praised group of companies known as the <em>Mittelstand</em>, are the “backbone of the UK economy” and should be allowed to grow further with investment support, export help and a simpler tax system.</p><p>This is a good opportunity for the chancellor before the election to support growth and investment well beyond the election, providing stability, certainty and simplicity for the UK’s <em>Mittelstand</em> to get themselves on the front foot.</p><p> “So the chancellor must reward growing, ambitious firms with the tools to get on with the job of rebalancing the economy and lift productivity. There has been good progress on this front from the government, and the chancellor can now take further action to boost investment and innovation.”</p><p>Innovation is fundamental to long-term growth and creating more high-skilled jobs in the economy. If we want to really get the full benefit of the great work going on in labs and workshops up and down the country, we need to encourage more firms to build their prototypes here in the UK. </p><p> There is a growing pattern of re-shoring production back home and a super-charged tax credit could help keep that ball rolling.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/04/cbi-urges-help-medium-sized-firms-upcoming-budget">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsBusinessConfederation of British Industry (CBI)BudgetEconomic policyTax and spendingSmall businessGeorge OsborneWed, 04 Mar 2015 09:42:19 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/04/cbi-urges-help-medium-sized-firms-upcoming-budgetPhotograph: Linda NylindPhotograph: Linda NylindKatie Allen2015-03-04T09:42:19ZLabour must push what Miliband has got right on the economy in election runuphttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/feb/15/labour-miliband-right-economy-election-tax-spending-policy
<p>Charge sheet brought by the Tories may not stand up, but party still needs show how its tax and spending policy can help re-shape and modernise the economy</p><p>In less than three months’ time, Ed Miliband could be prime minister. Admit it, conjuring up the mental image of the Labour leader coming in and out of No 10 is tough, even though opinion polls suggest that is the likeliest outcome of the election.</p><p>As far as his political opponents are concerned, Miliband should be a dead man walking. The economy is growing and unemployment is falling. Courtesy of falling oil prices, living standards are rising. Labour trail the Conservatives on economic competence. Miliband is seen as a less impressive leader than David Cameron.</p><p>Labour understood that the way to get the deficit down ​was to get the economy growing first</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/feb/15/labour-miliband-right-economy-election-tax-spending-policy">Continue reading...</a>Tax and spendingEconomic policyGeneral election 2015Ed MilibandEconomicsLabourGeorge OsborneConservativesPoliticsEconomic growth (GDP)UK newsSun, 15 Feb 2015 13:11:27 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/feb/15/labour-miliband-right-economy-election-tax-spending-policyPhotograph: Hannah McKay/PAPhotograph: Hannah McKay/PALarry Elliott, economics editor2015-02-15T13:11:27ZGeorge Osborne’s dossier on Labour election pledges is distinctly dodgyhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jan/05/george-osborne-dossier-labour-election-pledges-distinctly-dodgy
Chancellor’s criticism of opposition spending plans while running £90bn deficit shows politics is as much about perception as fact<p>It takes a lot of nerve to accuse your opponents of profligacy when the country is in the red by more than £90bn and you have missed your deficit reduction targets by a country mile.</p><p>That, though, was George Osborne’s strategy as he kicked off the Conservative party’s 2015 election campaign with a claim that Labour’s spending pledges of £23bn made it unfit for office. The choice for the electorate in May was between competence and chaos, the chancellor said.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jan/05/george-osborne-dossier-labour-election-pledges-distinctly-dodgy">Continue reading...</a>General election 2015PoliticsGeorge OsborneLabourBudget deficitEconomicsBusinessTax and spendingPublic financeSocietyMon, 05 Jan 2015 15:16:47 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jan/05/george-osborne-dossier-labour-election-pledges-distinctly-dodgyPhotograph: Getty ImagesCheeky chappie: If Osborne can keep the debate on spending, tax and borrowing he is likely to benefit whether his claims stack up or not. Photograph: Getty ImagesPhotograph: Getty ImagesCheeky chappie: If Osborne can keep the debate on spending, tax and borrowing he is likely to benefit whether his claims stack up or not. Photograph: Getty ImagesLarry Elliott, economics editor2015-01-05T15:16:47ZGeorge Osborne questioned by MPs about the autumn statement - as it happenedhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog
<p>Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including David Cameron and Ed Miliband at PMQs, and George Osborne being questioned by the Treasury committee about the autumn statement</p><ul><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog#block-54917950e4b0f05d5cd391d7">My PMQs verdict</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog#block-54918a44e4b0dc2dc1495a09">Lunchtime summary</a></li><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog#block-5491ab7ee4b0c3fc3f345e25">Afternoon summary</a></li></ul><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T18:12:07.343Z">6.12pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Actually getting a delay, an interest-free delay, is a considerable achievement, and worth something. But that strong message, I can’t help feeling, has been somewhat distorted by a claim that we got 50% back of this extra payment when it seems clear, as soon as you start looking at the rules, that money was coming anyway ... I’m not sure that the deal you said you brought back was quite as good as the one that in fact was achieved by those negotiations.</p><p>The current PIP process gives a disjointed experience for claimants. Some short term improvements are needed, for example to communications including decision letters. In the longer term, there should be a more integrated, digitally enabled claims process under common branding that would improve claimant experience and effectiveness.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:42:28.653Z">5.42pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Alok Sharma</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: These new figures include the black economy. How do you measure this?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:37:53.354Z">5.37pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>John Mann</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Could you provide us with all the written documents provided to you on this?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:35:11.645Z">5.35pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Will this affair undermine future government claims to have achieved a good deal in Britain?</em></p><p>No, says Osborne. He says the government has shown it can achieve good deals for the UK.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:33:29.873Z">5.33pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Steve Baker</strong>, a Conservative, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Isn’t this illustrative of the highly unsatisfactory nature of our relationship with the EU?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:27:19.867Z">5.27pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Earlier Andrew Tyrie and George Osborne were discussing a statement from an EU commissioner saying the rebate would apply. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog#block-5491b64fe4b0b53180a01720">5.01pm.)</a></p><p><a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-723_en.htm">Here is the text.</a> It is from <strong>Jacek Dominik</strong>, the budget commissioner, and dated 27 October 2014.</p><p>For example, in 2014, the UK rebate was revised upwards by EUR 567.3 million, which is financed by all other Member States. This adjustment was included in Amending Budget 4/2014. Similarly in 2013, the UK rebate was revised upwards by EUR 436 million; this was budgeted in Amending Budget 6/2013.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:21:54.941Z">5.21pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: When did you first hear about the extra payment?</em></p><p>Bowman says an official heard about this at the meeting on Friday 17 October. Senior Treasury officials were told on Tuesday 21 October. They then prepared a note for the chancellor, which he got on the Wednesday.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:19:56.560Z">5.19pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> Andy Love</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: What happened in previous years when there were adjustments to the amount the UK owed?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:18:03.426Z">5.18pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Tyrie says he is “surprised” Bowman did not think it was clear that the rebate would apply. The rules show that it would apply, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:14:19.493Z">5.14pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>John Mann</strong> takes over again.</p><p>He says politicians always take credit for positive things.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:11:55.742Z">5.11pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Tyrie says the rules were clear. He says he can’t understand why the Treasury could not tell the chancellor immediately that the rebate would apply.</p><p>Bowman says it was unclear that the rebate would apply.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:09:45.297Z">5.09pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> John Mann</strong> goes next. He addresses<strong> Mark Bowman</strong>, the Treasury’s international and EU director general.</p><p>Bowman says only a junior Treasury official attended the meeting where the European Commission said Britain would have to pay an extra contribution.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:05:17.255Z">5.05pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Tyrie says Osborne brought back a good deal for Britain. But the deal was not as good as Osborne claimed, he says.</p><p>Osborne says he did not know in advance that he was going to get a €1bn rebate.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:03:17.548Z">5.03pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Tyrie says getting an interest-free delay was worth something. But that message was “somewhat distorted” by the claim that Britain got half its money back when there was no suggestion that it would not do so.</p><p>Osborne says he does not accept this.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T17:01:27.907Z">5.01pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: People have to decide whether this was a halving of a bill due to a hard-fought negotiation, or whether this was just a clarification of how the rules apply under existing law.</em></p><p>Osborne says there was a hard-fought negotiation.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T16:58:48.002Z">4.58pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Was there considerable doubt about whether the recalculation would trigger a change to the rebate?</em></p><p>Osborne says he hoped the rebate would apply.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T16:53:16.650Z">4.53pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Treasury question is resuming. The committee is now asking George Osborne about<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29965113"> Britain’s extra payment to the EU budget</a>.</p><p><strong>Andrew Tyrie</strong> is opening the questioning.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T16:45:02.992Z">4.45pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>About 10 minutes ago MPs voted on Labour’s bedroom tax motion, calling for its immediate abolition, and Labour lost by 298 votes to 266. My colleague <strong>Frances Perraudin</strong> was listening to the debate beforehand. She’s sent me this.</p><p>Today’s opposition day debate on the bedroom tax, referred to by the government as the spareroom subsidy, proceeded along predictable lines. Labour party members drew parallels with the poll tax and read out case studies of constituents suffering because of the measure, and Conservative party members insisting that the tax hadn’t hit as many people as the opposition suggests and that it is a necessary move to tackle the problem of overcrowding in social housing.</p><p>Shadow work and pensions secretary<strong> Rachel Reeves</strong> said that the Department for Work and Pensions had made it clear that no additional money would be available to local authorities over their allocation to help people they deem to have been unfairly hit by the charge.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T16:07:54.280Z">4.07pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Did you have a discussion with the OECD before you announced the diverted profits tax?</em></p><p>Osborne says the government is heavily involved with the OECD’s work on tax avoidance. The diverted profits tax goes with the grain of what it is proposing.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T16:02:44.576Z">4.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Alok Sharma</strong>, a Conservative, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: How confident are you that you will raise the revenue from your tax avoidance measures that you expect?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T16:00:29.227Z">4.00pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>David Ruffley,</strong> a Conservative, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: I’m all for cutting taxes in the next parliament. People ask how we will do it. But can’t you point out that we’ve cut corporation tax, and revenues have gone up.</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:56:21.484Z">3.56pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>If Labour would rather achieve this fiscal consolidation through higher taxes, it will have to say what those taxes are, says Osborne.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:55:36.460Z">3.55pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Your choices will led to a smaller state. You think that’s a better state. Do you understand that services won’t be the same. The NHS will face difficulties.</em></p><p>Osborne says the government has decided to protect the NHS.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:53:41.262Z">3.53pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Robert Chote, the OBR chair, said that your plans would take spending as a proportion of GDP to its lowest level for 80 years.</em></p><p>Osborne says that he would find more savings from welfare, and from tackling tax avoidance, than the OBR expects.</p><p>Osborne embraces £23bn surplus in 2019-20. Polls show that may be political mistake since it lets Labour run shrunken state line.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:50:43.005Z">3.50pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> Andy Love</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: The OBR says that income tax revenues will fall short by £10bn by the end of the decade, and overall tax revenues by £21bn. Won’t there have to be tax rises?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:48:23.411Z">3.48pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s <strong>Mike Kane</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Are your planned spending cuts credible?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:45:02.820Z">3.45pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says Gordon Brown was spending 35.9% of GDP in 1999. In 1998 it was 36%.</p><p><em>Q: The OBR says your plans would take it to 35%, to 1930s level. Do you accept that?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:41:33.253Z">3.41pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Rushanara Ali</strong>, the Labour MP, goes next.</p><p>Osborne says he signed off the total management expenditure (TME) figures that the OBR used to produce its forecasts for future government spending.<br></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:38:36.744Z">3.38pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: This committee recommended that there should be a consultation on the next charter for budget responsibility. Why did you ignore that recommendation?</em></p><p>Osborne says he has not done that. The charter has been published. People can debate it before MPs vote on it.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:36:36.594Z">3.36pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne says he has achieved his fiscal target (balance the budget over the next five years). But he missed his debt reduction target by a year.</p><p>Anyone who votes for the charter for budget responsibility will be voting for cuts of £30bn, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:34:54.610Z">3.34pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Teresa Pearce</strong>, a Labour MP, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Are you worried that poor housing can have an effect on productivity?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:29:49.852Z">3.29pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Sir John Thurso</strong>, a Lib Dem, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: How satisfied are you with the service that allows people to switch bank accounts easily?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:26:17.141Z">3.26pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: If private consumption dips, will you allow more government consumption?</em></p><p>Osborne says he has set out his plans for coming years. Consistency is important.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:24:04.461Z">3.24pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The SNP’s<strong> Stewart Hosie</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: The OBR told us that people are using up their savings. How long can this go on for?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:21:31.806Z">3.21pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/10/mps-question-obrs-robert-chote-about-autumn-statement-politics-live-blog#block-54882f67e4b01a03d332426d">Professor Nickell from the OBR said last week that immigration could be bad for people on low incomes.</a> Has the Treasury done any analysis on this?</em></p><p>Osborne says government research has shown that there is an impact on low earners. Immigration needs to be controlled, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:19:11.708Z">3.19pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Mark Garnier,</strong> a Conservative, goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Are you worried about the number of people entering the labour market on low wages?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:15:45.396Z">3.15pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andrew Tyrie</strong> goes next. He says the Treasury’s distributional analyses are very interesting. The Treasury committee tried for 10 years to get this information from Labour. And, when he was a Treasury adviser, the Treasury decided it would not go anywhere near this, he says, because it was thought the figures would be embarrassing.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:14:36.384Z">3.14pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Originally borrowing was meant to be £37bn this year. How much is it now?</em></p><p>Osborne says Mann must know the figures.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:11:54.835Z">3.11pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> John Mann</strong> goes next.</p><p><em>Q: Are you and your family better off or worse off than at the election?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:08:13.291Z">3.08pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Steve Baker</strong>, a Conservative, goes next.</p><p>Osborne says he and Baker disagree about the impact of low interest rates.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:05:23.451Z">3.05pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>And here is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/martin-taylor-and-donald-kohn-re-appointed-to-financial-policy-committee">a Treasury news release saying Osborne has announced the re-appointment of Martin Taylor and Donald Kohn as external members of the Bank of England’s financial policy pommittee (FPC). </a>Osborne has also extended Professor David Miles’ second term as external member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T15:03:55.428Z">3.03pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Treasury has put out<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-sell-part-of-its-remaining-shareholding-in-lloyds-through-a-trading-plan"> a news release with more details of the Lloyds bank share sale.</a></p><p>Here’s an extract.</p><p>The chancellor has today set out the next stage in the government’s plan to return Lloyds Banking Group to private ownership and get taxpayers’ money back, by announcing that the government will sell part of its remaining shareholding in the firm through a trading plan.</p><p>The government received <a href="http://www.ukfi.co.uk/press-releases/">advice from UK Financial Investments</a> today that it would be appropriate to sell another part of the government’s shareholding in Lloyds through a trading plan. The government agrees with that advice and has authorised the plan to be put in place.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T14:58:30.723Z">2.58pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: There are lots of marginal tax rates. In the tax system there are rates of 12%, 32%, 42%, 62%, and 47%. And, allowing for the withdrawal of tax credits, there are marginal rates of 53%, 73% and 83%. Do you want to simplify this?</em></p><p>Osborne says he does believe in tax simplification.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T14:54:04.686Z">2.54pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne ups the rhetoric further on pay outstripping inflation today to Treasury Committee - now “the major moment in this Parliament”.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T14:51:36.137Z">2.51pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andrew Tyrie</strong>, the committee chairman, goes first.</p><p><em>Q: In your autumn statement you welcomed the projections saying inflation would be below target. Why?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T14:49:42.331Z">2.49pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Osborne is at the committee.</p><p>He says the Treasury has just announced plans to start selling shares in Lloyds. It will not sell shares below the price the last government paid for them.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T14:42:05.511Z">2.42pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>George Osborne</strong> will start his evidence to the Commons Treasury committee shortly.</p><p>He will be taking questions about the autumn statement, and about Britain’s contribution to the EU budget.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T14:18:19.968Z">2.18pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>You have lost two MPs to Ukip, you lost 26 too in Europe and you brought a whole new meaning to the phrase conviction politician when Andy Coulson went to jail. The truth is you have given up on compassionate conservatism. They have been exposed for who they really are. Your plan for the 2020s is to go back to the 1930s. It isn’t about balancing the books, it is about slashing the state and in just four months’ time that is the election choice.</p><p>I have to say I almost feel sorry for Labour MPs - they can’t talk about the deficit because it has fallen. They can’t talk about growth because it is rising, they can’t talk about jobs because we are increasing them, they can’t talk about immigration because they have been told not to talk about immigration. They can’t talk about their leader because he is a complete waste of space. No wonder for Labour MPs this year it’s a silent night.</p><p>We should stand up very firmly against the Russian aggression that has taken place. We led the way in Europe in making sure there were sanctions and what the combination of the lower oil price and the sanctions are showing that I think it isn’t possible for Russia to be part of the international financial system, but try and opt out of the rules based international legal system. That I think is what is being demonstrated and we should keep up the pressure.</p><p>What I would say is every excess winter death is a tragedy and the 18,200 last year were too high. But I have to say that is actually half the level of the excess winter deaths in 2008/09 when [Ed Miliband] was the energy secretary. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T13:38:30.907Z">1.38pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Home Office has announced that police funding from central government will be cut by 4.9% in real terms in 2015/16. That amounts to a cut worth £299m.</p><p><strong>Mike Penning</strong>, the policing minister, announced this in <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-vote-office/December%202014/17%20December/12-Home-PoliceGrant.pdf">a written ministerial statement (pdf). </a>Here’s an excerpt.</p><p>After careful consideration of all Home Office budgets and the impact of the chancellor’s 2013 autumn statement, I have decided to maintain the 4.9 per cent real terms headline reduction to overall central government funding to the police announced at spending round 2013. Taking account of the latest inflationary forecast from HM Treasury published alongside the chancellor’s 2014 autumn statement, this means a total cash reduction of £299m in the overall police funding envelope compared to 2014/15. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T13:25:51.004Z">1.25pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>This is what political journalists are saying about PMQs on Twitter.</p><p><strong>Those saying Cameron did best</strong></p><p>PMQs was a little General Election preview: Ed gets thumped on the economy, resorts to screaming "Andy Coulson"</p><p>Can understand why Labour thinks it's ok to attack Tories on economy now. But Miliband's poor <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/pmqs?src=hash">#pmqs</a> shows risk of not doing that well</p><p>Cameron knocking Ed all over the place.</p><p>Miliband terrible today. Same questions as at any point in last four years.</p><p>Decent line from Miliband on economy that Tories don't want to balance books they want to "slash the state". But Lab MPs still look glum.</p><p>PMQs verdict: David Cameron 5, Ed Miliband 1 <a href="http://t.co/hsLBKIWO5V">http://t.co/hsLBKIWO5V</a></p><p>A good last <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a> from Ed Miliband in my opinion. Cameron explodes and calls him a "complete waste of space".</p><p>My <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a> review: A narrow win for Miliband on the Tories' strongest territory <a href="http://t.co/1ydQuF1A1G">http://t.co/1ydQuF1A1G</a></p><p>Clegg isn't at <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a>. Like me, he came for Dfid questions and is simply too embarrassed to leave.</p><p>That's the whole of the election campaign in 10 mins. Wake me up on 6 May. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a></p><p>You know those election leaders debates? Think they've just had the first one in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/pmqs?src=hash">#pmqs</a>. Only 4 months to go....</p><p>Interesting that there were no ironic cheers from Tories when EdM stood up at <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a>. Morale has shifted.</p><p>Miliband attacks Cameron for planning to slash the state and raise VAT. 2015 is going to feel a lot like 2010. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a></p><p>Labour benches alarmingly quiet during Cameron's Ed kickings. Not even heckling. Come on <a href="https://twitter.com/labourwhips">@labourwhips</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a></p><p>Another Freudian slip? Late in PMQs Cameron referred to his hope for a 'Conservative-led Government' after 2015. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Coalicious?src=hash">#Coalicious</a></p><p>Wd Miliband hv been wiser to split his Qs? 3 on WiganPier cuts + 3 on NHS hiring Portuguese/Spnsh nurses (NHS/migration in one)</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T13:18:30.709Z">1.18pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>This is the section of the OBR document that miliband and Cameron were arguing about: <a href="http://t.co/xQvu2OGzoH">pic.twitter.com/xQvu2OGzoH</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T13:03:06.871Z">1.03pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>PMQs verdict:</strong> Until now the Conservatives have assumed that the economy is their subject.<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92a038e8-6362-11e4-8a63-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3M9uICFxc"> “Every day not campaigning on the economy is a day wasted,” Jim Messina, the Conservatives’ American strategist, told the party last month. </a>But, in the light of the autumn statement, and what it revealed about the Conservatives’ public spending plans over the next five years, that it starting to look less certain. </p><p>Why? Because, even if you don’t think that George Osborne is planning to reduce Britain to a state of Wigan Pier destitution, it is now clear that the public does not want cuts on the scale envisaged by Osborne. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/10/mps-question-obrs-robert-chote-about-autumn-statement-politics-live-blog#block-5488699fe4b05bb5eb71a9db">This polling, from last week, illustrates this well,</a> and other polls have produced similar findings.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:38:14.149Z">12.38pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>This sums it up very well. It’s from the FT’s Jim Pickard.</p><p>Today's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMQs?src=hash">#PMQs</a> summarised: Cameron: economy all well Miliband: economy Orwell</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:36:43.890Z">12.36pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Cameron says Labour in Wales chose to cut the NHS, rather than invest in it. And, in Scotland, the SNP government has not passed on all the extra money it has received as a result of health spending going up in England.</p><p>And that’s it. I’ll post a verdict shortly.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:35:10.422Z">12.35pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Liz McInnes</strong>, the Labour MP, asks a closed question about helping old people protect themselves from the cold.</p><p>Cameron says the government is helping people insulate themselves.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:33:15.700Z">12.33pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> Sheila Gilmore</strong> says, despite the bedroom tax, spending on housing benefit has gone up. When will Cameron tackle the real causes of the problem, low wages.</p><p>Cameron says Labour want to increase spending, by abolishing the bedroom tax. Their plans do not add up, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:32:08.263Z">12.32pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>John Glen</strong>, a Conservative, mentions a constituent saving £4,500 from the stamp duty cut. He will be giving some of it to charity, he says.</p><p>Cameron says the message of the autumn statement is that the government is on the side of people who want to own their own home.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:30:35.746Z">12.30pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Cameron says the problem with Labour’s narrative is that it is not true. They talk about inequality, poverty and child poverty, but they are lower than under Labour.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:29:28.038Z">12.29pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Kenneth Clarke</strong>, the Conservative former chancellor, says the coalition will take public spending back to the level it was under Gordon Brown. But it was only at that level because he stuck to plans drawn up by Clarke.</p><p>Cameron says Labour is basing its entire economic policy on some throwaway remark on the BBC from some reporter (Norman Smith) at 6.10am in the morning.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:27:54.979Z">12.27pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Sir Tony Baldry</strong>, a Conservative, quotes from Marx about Britain resisting Russian imperialism. </p><p>Cameron says he has not spent as much time studying Marx as Baldry, or even perhaps Miliband - “I don’t know what goes on in Camden these days” - but that he agrees with the quote. We should keep up the pressure on Russia. It cannot be part of the world financial system, but not its legal system.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:26:03.169Z">12.26pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour <strong>Tom Blenkinsop</strong> asks about health.</p><p>Cameron says there are 3,000 more nurses, and 8,000 more doctors, in the NHS</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:24:52.268Z">12.24pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>David Burrowes</strong>, a Conservative, asks about a hospital in his Enfield Southgate constituency.</p><p>Cameron says opening hours at a hospital in Burrowes’ constituency are being extended.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:23:55.107Z">12.23pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> Nia Griffith </strong>asks Cameron if he agrees with Owen Paterson that the Climate Change Act should be scrapped.</p><p>Cameron says he thinks the legislation is delivering. More money is going into green energy.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:23:03.237Z">12.23pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Stephen Metcalfe,</strong> a Conservative, says anyone who thinks you should not talk about immigration with voters is out of touch.</p><p>Cameron says Labour MPs can’t talk about immigration, unemployment, the deficit or leadership issues.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:22:06.576Z">12.22pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s<strong> Derek Twigg</strong> asks about a constituent who waited an hour and a half for an ambulance to attend.</p><p>Cameron says there are more than 1,000 paramedics than when the government came to power. When an ambulance trust falls down, that is a matter of regret.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:20:18.364Z">12.20pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s <strong>Nick Brown </strong>asks where the cuts in working-age welfare will fall.</p><p>Cameron says Labour is voting this afternoon, on the bedroom tax, to add to £2bn to welfare. That would mean taking money from schools or health, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:19:14.311Z">12.19pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Mark Garnier</strong>, a Conservative, asks Cameron for an assurance that he will not build a recovery on a mountain of debt.</p><p>Cameron agrees. And he says Labour should recognise that, when you have had a period of growth, you should pay down debt.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:18:10.517Z">12.18pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Labour’s <strong>Tessa Jowell </strong>asks Cameron to join her in calling on firms to cut transfer charges paid by people how pay remittances to relatives in developing countries.</p><p>Cameron says remittances are hugely important for developing countries. He is looking at what can be done to keep charges down.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:16:07.019Z">12.16pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Snap PMQs Verdict:</strong> Reasonably strong performances from both Cameron and Miliband, but Miliband’s points about the 1930s, and the Tory unfunded tax promises, outgunned Cameron’s Labour Treasury reference, and his attempt to switch the subject back to unemployment. Even more significantly, Miliband chalked up a win on the economy - which is normally Tory territory.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:13:18.985Z">12.13pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Miliband says the economy is fixed for people on Cameron’s Christmas card list, but not for other people. Will Cameron rule out raising VAT?</p><p>Cameron says he does not need to raise taxes because he can raise the money from efficiencies. He says it is Christmas, and he has had his Christmas present early. He brandishes Labour’s document about how to campaign against Ukip. It says the Tories have a 17-point lead on the economy.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:09:20.055Z">12.09pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Miliband says in a few months’ time Cameron can ask the questions. The mask slipped during the autumn statement. Under the Tories there would be cuts of £50bn. Does he really think services won’t suffer?</p><p>Cameron says the pretence that Miliband cared about the economy lasted about a week. Under Labour there would be more tax and more borrowing.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:06:49.589Z">12.06pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Ed Miliband</strong> also starts by condemning the “appalling” massacre in Pakistan, and the “sickening” terrorist attack in Sydney. And he pays tribute to members of the armed forces.</p><p>The OBR says government plans will take public spending to its lowest level for 80 years. Why does Cameron think the OBR has joined the BBC in a conspiracy against the Tories?</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:03:20.443Z">12.03pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Oliver Colvile</strong>, a Conservative, welcomes the unemployment figures, and says Plymouth needs a faster rail line.</p><p>Cameron says he received a presentation on the rail issue.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T12:02:03.052Z">12.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>David Cameron </strong>starts by condemning the attacks in Australia and Pakistan. What happened in Pakistan was utterly heartbreaking, he says. The whole world stands with Pakistan. </p><p>He also sends his Christmas wishes to members of the armed forces.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T11:54:40.689Z">11.54am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>PMQs starts soon.</p><p>I’ve just been checking out<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm131218/debtext/131218-0001.htm#13121855001621"> the last PMQs from 2013</a>. Here’s how it started.</p><p><strong>Miliband: </strong>Today’s economic figures show a welcome fall in unemployment, and for every person who gets back into work it benefits not just them but their family as well. Does the prime minister agree, however, that it is a major challenge for Britain that at the end of this year there are more people than ever before in today’s figures working part time because they cannot get the hours they need?</p><p><strong>Cameron:</strong> It is worth looking at these unemployment figures in some detail, because I think they do paint an encouraging picture. Unemployment is down by 99,000 and the number of people claiming unemployment benefit has actually fallen by 36,000 in this month alone. There are 250,000 more people in work. Youth unemployment is down. Long-term unemployment is down. Unemployment among women is down. We have talked before about 1 million more people in work under this Government; there are now 1.2 million more in work. There should not be one ounce of complacency, because we have still got work to do to get our country back to work. Having everyone back in work means greater stability for them, a greater ability to plan for their future, and greater help for their families. But the plan is working; let us stick at it and get unemployment down even further.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T11:49:21.962Z">11.49am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>If you haven’t already read out the Guardian’s inside account of the Scottish independence referendum campaign, you should. It’s excellent. Today’s instalment reveals that<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/16/scottish-independence-queen-intervene-yes-vote-fears"> senior figures in Whitehall and Downing Street became so fearful that the Scottish independence referendum could lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom that the Queen was asked to make a rare public intervention in the final days of the campaign.</a></p><p>They have been reading it at <strong>Republic,</strong> the group campaigning for the abolition of the monarchy. It is urging parliament to censure the Queen for her behaviour. This is from Republic’s chief executive, Graham Smith.</p><p>The Guardian makes clear that the Queen was prepared to take deliberate steps to encourage people to vote No in the referendum. Regardless of how people feel about Scottish independence we should all be alarmed at such a political intervention by a hereditary monarch.</p><p>We would normally expect a head of state to take an active interest in such a momentous referendum, but the deal with the monarchy is that the monarch stays quiet and keeps out of these debates.” </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T11:40:01.991Z">11.40am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The Polling Observatory, one of the academic teams that uses polling data and election trends to try to forecast what the result will be at the general election, has produced <a href="http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/12/17/polling-observatory-43/">its latest assessment.</a> It says we’re heading for a dead heat.</p><p>This month we can also bring you an update on <a href="http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/05/07/the-polling-observatory-forecast-1-lessons-for-2015-from-polling-history/">our national polling forecast figure</a>. We didn’t publish a forecast last month, so the changes reported are on the figures from <a href="http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/10/15/the-polling-observatory-forecast-5-conservatives-fading-away/">two months ago</a>. Labour’s decline in the polls over that period also is reflected in our forecast, though we do anticipate some recovery from the current level. We forecast a share of 33.4% for Labour next May, representing a fall of 2.8 points over the past two months. The Conservatives’ forecast share has not risen, however – we have them winning 33.8%, up just 0.1% from October’s forecast. The Liberal Democrats are also expected to recover somewhat based on historical trends in the polls. Our current forecast is for 9.2%, up 0.5% on the previous estimate. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T11:27:31.185Z">11.27am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>And the Home Office has published a review of the case for allowing intercept evidence to be used in court. It concludes that this would be a mistake.</p><p>Here’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/388111/InterceptAsEvidence.pdf">the report (pdf).</a></p><p>Under British law defendants must receive a fair trial under conditions that do not place them at a disadvantage compared to the prosecution. In practice this means the defence should have access to all material on which the prosecution relies, as well as any material which is capable of undermining the prosecution case or assisting the defence. The prohibition on using intercept as evidence is consistent with the right to a fair trial because neither the defence nor the prosecution can rely on intercept material. </p><p>For the use of intercept material as evidence to be consistent with a fair trial, all relevant material collected by an intercepting agency in the course of a given investigation would need to be retained to an evidential standard and made available to the defence ...</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T11:21:36.136Z">11.21am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>John Vine</strong>, the inspector of borders and immigration, has revealed that the government has not cut the number of foreign nationals remaining in the UK without permission to stay. This is from the Press Association.</p><p>The number of foreign nationals who have overstayed their permission to remain in the UK has remained static as the government fails to control the problem, an inspector has said. </p><p>Inspector of borders and immigration John Vine said the overall size of the so-called migration refusal pool - the number of foreign nationals refused leave to stay in the UK after 2008 - was 173,562 in the three months to June this year, compared to 174,057 in the same period two years earlier. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T11:10:29.459Z">11.10am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here is some more reaction to the unemployment figures. (See<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog#block-54914d49e4b07a51e943a129"> 9.35am.)</a></p><p>From <strong>Rachel Reeves</strong>, the shadow work and pensions secretary</p><p>Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome, but after four years when prices have risen faster than wages, working people are over £1,600 a year worse off since 2010. There is a huge amount of lost ground to catch up. And while falling global oil prices have led to the rate of inflation going down, wages remain sluggish.</p><p> Over the course of this parliament working people are set to see the biggest fall in wages of any Parliament since 1874-1880. The government’s failure to tackle low pay is making it harder to get the deficit down. According to the OBR income tax receipts alone are £70bn lower than forecast in 2010.</p><p>Today’s figures show some long overdue improvements, but at this rate it will take over a decade to recover the real value of people’s earnings. And there is a very long way to go to deal with the problem of so many jobs being insecure, short hours, or on zero hour contracts.</p><p>We need to make sure that nobody is left behind in the recovery, so today’s increase in long-term unemployment for young people is a growing concern.</p><p>There is almost uniformly good news. Employment levels continued to rise, by 115000, in the latest quarter. Meanwhile unemployment fell by 63000, with the headline rate of unemployment remaining at 6.0%.</p><p>The more detailed statistics suggest a continuing trend towards restoration of normality in the labour market. The number of employees in employment increased by 165,000, with a reduction of 29,000 in self-employment. Amongst those who are self-employed, the number working part-time fell by 34,000 while the number working full-time rose slightly. Meanwhile the total number of people working full-time increased by 166,000, and there was a reduction of 51,000 in the number working part-time. This is all reassuring news. We have expressed concern in recent months about the high levels of insecurity that remain in the labour market. While this is still a concern, the latest figures indicate that we are clearly moving in the right direction.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T10:56:47.964Z">10.56am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here’s the start of the Press Association story about the findings of the al-Sweady inquiry.</p><p>British troops mistreated nine Iraqi detainees following a fierce battle a decade ago, but false allegations of murder and torture were the product of “deliberate lies, reckless speculation and ingrained hostility”, a judge-led inquiry has found. </p><p>The long-running al-Sweady inquiry, which has cost the taxpayer almost £25m, concluded in its final report that the conduct of some soldiers towards detainees breached the Geneva convention. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T10:50:42.359Z">10.50am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Remember<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/01/john-bercow-delays-recruitment-commons-clerk-chief-executive"> Carol Mills, the Australian parliamentary official that John Bercow wanted to hire as the new clerk of the Commons? </a>The move caused a huge row, because MPs thought she was not properly qualified, and Bercow eventually announced that her appointment, which was on the verge of being confirmed, was being put on hold to allow time for an inquiry into whether the job of Commons clerk should be changed.</p><p><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/house-of-commons-governance-committee/news/hoc-governance-report-published/">The committee that conducted that inquiry, chaired by Jack Straw, has now reported. </a>It is recommending various technical changes to the way the House of Commons manages itself, but the key point is that it marks a victory for Commons traditionalists. They’ve won, and Bercow (a moderniser) has lost. For two reasons:</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:54:43.805Z">9.54am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here’s George Osborne on the unemployment figures.</p><p>Major moment in UK recovery with unemployment down, more jobs &amp; wages growing significantly above inflation <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LongTermEconomicPlan?src=hash">#LongTermEconomicPlan</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:51:45.528Z">9.51am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>And here is some early Twitter comment on the unemployment figures.</p><p>From Newsnight’s Duncan Weldon</p><p>Jobs growth driven by fulltime employee positions, self employment down again. Early evidence that the UK is creating 'better' quality jobs.</p><p>Wage growth up as number of fulltime employees rises - I.e. Some of the 'compositional' drag on average earnings may be unwinding.</p><p>Growth of 115,00 in number of people getting jobs is almost all in full time employment</p><p>Number in work has reached record high of 30.8 million</p><p>Public sector employment has fallen by 7,000 but private sector employment up by 120,00</p><p>Pay continuing to pick up with wages increasing by 1.6% (excl bonuses) compared to 1.3% last month</p><p>Recovery in wages is led by service sector but across all sectors of the economy say <a href="https://twitter.com/ONS">@ons</a></p><p>Real wages in UK (wage growth less inflation) rising at fastest rate in 6 yrs. Thanks to lowest inflation in 12 yrs: <a href="http://t.co/QGboydvM65">pic.twitter.com/QGboydvM65</a></p><p>Earnings up 1.4% on the year to October, excluding bonuses it's 1.6% ONS : "First time in six years both measures higher than inflation."</p><p>Employment rose 115k in Aug-Oct. 76k of this was empt of over-50s. Empt of 18-24yos fell 16k <a href="http://t.co/XzPkefR7ZT">http://t.co/XzPkefR7ZT</a></p><p>Wide measure of joblessness (unemp+inactive wanting work+part-timers wanting f-t work) fell from 5.69m to 5.56m in Aug-Oct</p><p>Total hours worked rose 0.7% in Aug-Oct, same rate as GDP. Implies productivity stagnated. Might worry BoE, given than wage inflation rose.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:40:05.413Z">9.40am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>And this is from <strong>Danny Alexander</strong>, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury.</p><p>Once again, we have a new record for the number of people in work, which is great news in the run up to Christmas. But more than that, today’s earnings figures show that the positive effects of our economic recovery are beginning to show in people’s wage packets. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:39:20.085Z">9.39am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>David Cameron</strong> has been tweeting about the unemployment figures.</p><p>Employment is at a record high &amp; average earnings are rising faster than inflation. More to do, but our long term economic plan is working.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:37:46.235Z">9.37am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>And here is <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/december-2014/sty-labour-market-statistics--december-2014.html">a graphic from the ONS with the full figures.</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:35:23.690Z">9.35am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are the headline unemployment figures.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:28:48.491Z">9.28am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>For the record,<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/17/labour-lead-1/"> here are today’s YouGov GB polling figures.</a></p><p>Labour: 34% (no change from YouGov yesterday)</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-17T09:02:28.097Z">9.02am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>It’s the last PMQs of 2014 but don’t expect much indication that we’re in the season of goodwill. I’ll be covering that in detail, as usual, and then, this afternoon, I’ll be focusing on George Osborne at the Treasury committee.</p><p>Here’s the agenda for the day.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsPMQsDavid CameronEd MilibandGeorge OsborneAutumn statement 2014Tax and spendingEconomic policyEconomic growth (GDP)Stamp dutyHousingBudgetEconomicsHouse of CommonsTaxPropertyWed, 17 Dec 2014 18:12:07 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/17/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blogPhotograph: REXPhotograph: REXAndrew Sparrow2014-12-17T18:12:07ZGeorge Osborne’s plan may not be set in stone, but it still spells deep cutshttps://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/04/george-osbornes-autumn-statement-spells-deep-cuts
<p>The chancellor has accused his critics of hyperbole, but his autumn statement leaves him little room for manoeuvre</p><p>Something has to give. If the British state is to avoid shrinking back to the size it was when Churchill was fulminating against appeasement, taxes have to rise, borrowing has to increase or welfare has to face deeper cuts. That was the message from the Institute for Fiscal Studies as it skewered George Osborne over the spending plans laid out in the autumn statement.</p><p>The chancellor has had better days. He woke up to find the Today programme concentrating on what his deficit reduction plan meant for the size of the state rather than what his stamp duty reform meant for homebuyers. He took exception to the suggestion that his spending plans will lead to government being pared back to its smallest level as a share of the economy since the 1930s. He said the IFS was wrong in its analysis of the impact of his deficit reduction scheme on Whitehall budgets. And he accused the BBC of hyperbole.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/04/george-osbornes-autumn-statement-spells-deep-cuts">Continue reading...</a>Autumn statement 2014George OsbornePoliticsEconomicsBudgetUK newsEd BallsTax and spendingInstitute for Fiscal StudiesPublic sector cutsBudget deficitOffice for Budget ResponsibilityGeneral election 2015NHSCuts and closuresEducationLabourLiberal-Conservative coalitionConservativesEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyEconomic recoveryThinktanksPublic financePublic services policyGovernment borrowingThu, 04 Dec 2014 21:17:17 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/04/george-osbornes-autumn-statement-spells-deep-cutsPhotograph: Gamma-Keystone/GettyWinston Churchill broadcasts his 'Blood, toil, tears and sweat speech in May 1940'. The British state risks shrinking back to the size it was when Churchill had fulminated against appeasement. Photograph: Gamma-Keystone/GettyPhotograph: Gamma-Keystone/GettyWinston Churchill broadcasts his 'Blood, toil, tears and sweat speech in May 1940'. The British state risks shrinking back to the size it was when Churchill had fulminated against appeasement. Photograph: Gamma-Keystone/GettyLarry Elliott2014-12-04T21:17:17Z