Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Dollars & Sense

$73M is already committed for 2012. This year's payroll was about $118M. Schierholtz, Sandoval, Romo, Vogelsong, Fontenot, Casilla, Torres, Keppinger, JSanchez, and Lincecum are all in their abitration years. Javier Lopez is a free agent. Matt Cain is a free agent next year. Tim Lincecum is a free agent in 2014. The only guy on the payroll in 2014 is Barry Zito (his $7M buyout year), so perhaps they will be ready to make a real big pitch to keep him. They'll have to extend Cain. Wilson goes to arbitration in 2013, his final year, and MadBum and Buster go to arb for the first time. They have a real window to win with this group. How do they keep the team together? Obviously ownership could spend like fiends, but I just don't see this franchise doing that sort of thing. They'll be in the top third--but I'll be shocked if they go over $125M. Giants have some interesting choices to make.

5 comments:

Ron
said...

Offering arbitration to Torres & Fontenot (& Keppinger, too) would be a sign of weakness - tantamount to throwing in the towel, & saying 'we're just fine being mediocre'. The Fontenot / Keppinger thing is just not worth the trouble. Brett Pill has some experience at 2B. He could be an awesome PH / 1B / 2B option for us.

Offering arbitration to Casilla, Schierholtz, & Vogelsong are acceptable moves, with no other real alternatives.

I see very little benefit to prolonging the Zito agony. He is blocking keeping a legitimate & inexpensive pitcher on the roster. We have to pay him, whether he is pitching for us or not. Although it was so hard to predict, this has turned out to be one of the worst deals in MLB history.

J. Sanchez is the big question. I suppose that arbitration is the way to go. That doesn't mean that we can't then trade him, which should be an option to consider.

As far as your Free Agent list from yesterday, I wouldn't touch anyone on that list, except Reyes, Rollins, or Beltran. The rest of those guys are pretty run-of-the-mill, giving us no real upgrade.

I wish that Beltran would realize that AT&T Park is an ideal park for a hitter like him. A full season there, & he could get 50 2B's, 20 3B's, & 25 HR's. I don't know whether or not that has ever been done before. When he's locked in (which seems to be about 70% of the time), he is a line drive machine.

Back to Zo's comment, yes, we need a lead-off hitter. However, conveniently, Reyes or Rollins could perform that function admirably.

My choice for 'feel-good' signing of the off-season: Joe Nathan. Wouldn't it be great to bring him back for a couple of years at the end of his career as a set-up guy.

I would continue to invest in this team. By investing and winning they have grown the fan base and also have tremendous amount of sales of food and giants paraphenalia. To continue this could will they should continue to invest. Money in, could be money out. If they start to get cheap, and do not put a really good product on the field, the fans will protest, just like the wall street protests. Only the giants fans will protest by not coming out, and not spending their money on an inferior product. The days of supporting a crappy team, ie; like the cubs fans, is long gone. Management puts in a great effort, and the fans will reward them. Management gets chincy, and so do the fans.

I disagree about Torres. I think he is still a useful player. His fielding is exceptional and a great help to the pitchers. His real talent level is somewhere between his brilliant 2010 and terrible 2011. Gary Brown is in the AFL, he just might get a look as a leadoff hitter next season. That would be pretty bold--he's only 23, not exactly Boch-Sabes material.

FSanchez will need a backup at second. Perhaps Conor Gillaspie? Fontenot is pretty handy, LH PH with some pop, can play 3B, SS, 2B, not a bad guy to have around. You need range at 2B--losing FSanchez hurt the D big-time. I don't see Pill there at all, but he might make the team as a PH.

The biggest decision is SS. Is Crawford going to get the job? If not, I expect they will go after somebody like Clint Barmes or Nick Punto on a short-term (2-year) deal. I will be shocked if they go after Reyes or Rollins.

Brandon Belt is the key. If he can hit like his minor-league numbers say he should he can nail down LF and give the team another bat to go with Posey and Sandoval.

Lincecum has already said he likes short-term deals and will not sign away his FA years. I think the Giants will make a big offer to him in 2014 (assuming he is still Freaky the next two seasons). Cain needs an extension. I think that will happen in November or December. JSanchez is a tough one, as you say. Too talented to let go of but too inconsistent to give a long-term deal to. At the very least they will offer him arbitration if he wont bite on a 2-year deal.

What about Javier Lopez? How much and for how long? What is a lefty specialist worth?

Since we are apparently going to be keeping Affeldt under any conditions, holding onto Lopez, too, seems to be less likely. Specialist Relief Pitchers are flaky, & Lopez did start to show some signs of decreased reliability later in the season. Some of our Relief Pitchers can say that they were over-used - not Lopez, as he is a guy who comes in to face 1 or 2 hitters at-a-time. The other factor in this decision is Runzler. I like Lopez & used to have full faith in his ability to get lefties out. But, it is very hard to rely on individual Relief Pitchers over a long period. Their effectiveness can ebb & wane multiple times throughout their careers. I don't think that a multi-year deal for Lopez makes sense, although someone else will probably give him one.

If you want to keep your core of very talented pitchers together, you are going to have to maximize your use of inexpensive hitters - read that "home grown." Fortunately, the Giants are in a position to do that. Posey, Sandoval, Belt, Pill, Schierholtz, these guys are not yet expensive. I would expect that the Giants would consider pursuing a free agent hitter, but not multiple free agents. Forget about Beltran AND Rollins joining the team. Based on Beltran's prior comments as a free-lance GM, when he stated that he would consider coming back if the Giants add some table-setters (meaning Reyes) I would not expect him to sign with the Giants, although you never know, these guys never seem to have any responsibility for their blabberings.

One other wild-card factor, though. There is not nearly the unlimited money out there for free agents that there was a few years ago. There is a top tier, and these guys will continue to get many millions of dollars. But the gap between the top tier and the second tier is wider, and the top tier is not as deep as it once was. I would fully expect Beltran, Reyes and Rollins to be in the top tier, also, Pujols, Fielder, and of course Lincecum when he gets to it. But just below that, free agents may not get nearly the money that they think they will. We have seen that the last couple years and there is no reason to think that will change just yet. Yeah, the Yankees have the wherewithal to outbid anyone for Beltran, but even they have their limitations.

And speaking of the Yankees, one of my great pleasures in life is reading the NY Times on days like today. The woe! The angst! The rending of flesh and tearing of hair! It just doesn't get any better. Go Cardinals and Go Brewers!