The Nation: The Boys of October; Baseball's New Performance Bonus

By DAVID LEONHARDT

Published: January 16, 2005

WOULDN'T it be nice if your future salary was determined largely by what you had done during your best day at the office? That, roughly, is what has happened to Carlos Beltran, the center fielder the Mets signed this week.

As much as any player in the game's modern history, Beltran made himself a great deal of money -- perhaps an extra $30 million -- by excelling during a brief period.

Entering last year's playoffs, he looked like a fine player, even an excellent one, with power, speed and a good glove. But he was not one of the game's very best players in the minds of most people. He hit .267 last year, good for 118th place in baseball.

Based on all of his statistics, as well as his age and recent contracts signed by other players, Beltran could have been expected to make about $12.9 million a year in coming seasons, according to Jared Weiss, an economics student at the University of Chicago, and Ben Murphy, an author of Baseball Prospectus, a scouting guide.

In the playoffs, however, Beltran put on one of the more impressive displays in memory, hitting .435 with 8 home runs in 12 games for the Houston Astros and making a diving catch that drew comparisons to Willie Mays. He quickly rose to a category all his own in this winter's free-agent market, and the Mets signed him to a seven-year deal averaging $17 million a year.

Similarly, Derek Lowe, who won the clinching game of the World Series for the Boston Red Sox, signed a $9-million-a-year deal with the Dodgers last week. Having given up the second-most runs in the major leagues over the last two seasons, Lowe had compiled a r?m?hat suggested a salary closer to $5.7 million.

The Mets and Dodgers, of course, are hoping that the real Beltran and real Lowe were on display last October and that they are worth the investments. They might well be. As in most areas of life, however, the history of baseball suggests that years of achievement are usually more telling than weeks of it.

Photo: Outfielder Carlos Beltran, who is both lucky and good. (Photo by Barton Silverman/The New York Times)