8
International Energy Association’s wake-up call : “ There are three problems: Geology Investment Policy of main producers These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult ” Fatih Birol Chief Economist

9
In your dreams …. ‘The explorers will fix it; there’s lots of oil out there - think of Jack and Tupi; add in the OCS and ANWR’ ‘Worldwide reserves/production ratio is still 40:1; there’s lots of time to find other energy sources’ ‘Technology will deal with it: add just 10% to recovery efficiency and we’re fine’

11
The R/P Placebo Field rate declines after ~ 50% of reserves produced Total rate not constant, declines ~ 4% /year. After 40 years rate is ~ 20% of original

12
Effects of New Technology Little indication that recovery efficiency is increasing in established fields. Main benefits seems to be in dealing with unexpected problems and in finding small accumulations

24
Source: 13D Research, NY Rationing: A forced solution Queuing for diesel at a Sinopec station in South China, Apr. 2008 Waiting in line for gas when Grangemouth refinery workers were on strike, Apr. 2008

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Basis for the ‘Transition Towns’ Four key assumptions: Life with lower energy consumption inevitable, better to plan than be surprised Communities lack resilience to be able to deal with severe energy shocks Must act collectively and act now Can unleash collective genius of us all to design our energy descent, build more connecting and enriching ways of living, recognize biological limits of our planet Hopkins, ‘Transition Handbook ’, 2008