A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Chairman of LCRP since January 2013

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Congressional District 5 - Redistricted (MI-05)

Update -5-16-2012 - The dems caught a break here by having no primary. With the wrong candidate for them, this could end up have been a competitive race with a party switching labor-moderate like Slezak. I was hoping that Don Williamson or Woodrow Stanley would have filed. Kildee is Dale's nephew, but like in Bill Rogers case in HD-66/(now HD-42) had some elective experience of his own as Genesee County treasurer.

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This district had to expand due to population losses. It is now largely a combination of the old 5th District, along with most of the 1990's era Jim Barcia district. In fact, Barcia will likely have an easy win in this district if he runs for it when Kildee steps down. Kildee will be 83 years old at the next election.

The only thing Kildee loses here is a small part of Tuscola County in the thumb, which is added to Candice Miller's district. Miller has most of the thumb already. Kildee takes from Benishek the slightly democrat leaning areas of Northern Bay County, Iosco County, and Arenac County. Those areas are open to voting for any party candidate. They are social conservative (pro-life, pro 2nd Amendment) areas, but also support labor. Many are UAW retirees, UAW commuters, or corrections workers. A lot of the democrats who win there are Jim Barcia types, not Ann Arbor types.

The partisan numbers here are about the same. Kildee lost Tuscola County bad in 2010, and nearly lost Bay County. Tuscola County is competitive, but sometimes goes big for Republicans. A democrat getting less than 50% in Bay County (including 3rd party votes) is an aberration that can't be counted on. It does show strength for John Kupiec, beyond his home area (Fenton/Grand Blanc). Some Republicans have done very well here on the state level winning districts multiple times that they shouldn't have won on paper. Joel Gougeon countywide in Bay County, and Mike Gocshka countywide in Saginaw County.

The old spread was about 58000 for Bush and 95000 for Obama. The new spread was about 61000 for Kerry and about 101000 for Obama.

Here's the numbers. Genesee County is still the base of this district.