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Analysis: Ukraine attack on convoy sends tough message

If the convoy is confirmed to be Russian military vehicles, the attack Thursday night would mark the first time in the five-month war in the country's east that Ukrainian and Russian forces clashed directly.

A Ukrainian attack on a suspected convoy of Russian military vehicles sent Moscow a tough new message: Ukraine's military is more confident about protecting its territory, and a full-scale Russian invasion could be prolonged and bloody.

While the State Department, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have all documented convoys of military vehicles crossing into Ukraine in the past, this is the first time Ukraine attacked such a convoy immediately after it crossed into Ukrainian territory, showing a previously unseen boldness.

"I can't recall Ukrainians firing on a column coming in from Russia," said Ian Brzezinski, a deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Policy under President George W. Bush. "This is a military beginning to stand on its own two feet."

Western journalists, including a reporter for The Guardian newspaper in London, reported seeing the column enter Ukraine from Russia through a break in a barbed-wire border. The reporters said they stumbled into it while following a Russian aid convoy headed for the Ukrainian border.

The aid convoy consisted of 262 military trucks, most of them painted white and each manned by three former Russian military personnel, according to a report by National Public Radio. When Ukrainian officials began inspecting the trucks Friday, many of them turned out to be mostly empty, according to the BBC.

On Saturday, those trucks remained idled near the border as a complicated process of approving the cargo dragged on. The holdup involved documents from the Red Cross and inspection by Ukraine border guards and customs agents.

An Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) representative watches the Ukrainian artillery withdrawal near Vasiukovka, Ukraine, in the Donetsk area on Feb. 27, 2015. Ukraine is withdrawing heavy weapons from its front line in the east in order to test whether a peace plan with Russian-backed separatists can work.
Anastasia Vlasova, European Pressphoto Agency

A woman in traditional costume lays flowers at the temporary memorial for Maidan activists who were killed during anti-government protest one year ago in Kiev, Ukraine.
Sergey Dolzhenko, European Pressphoto Agency

A boy climbs on a Russia-made trophy artillery rocket system, seized by the Ukrainian troops, at an open-air exhibition in front of the golden-domed St Michael Cathedral, in Kiev, Ukraine.
Efrem Lukatsky, AP

A handout photo taken and released by the Presidential press-service shows Ukrainian President Petro Posroshenko greets a wounded serviceman during his visit to military hospital in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine, on Feb. 21.
Michail Palinchak, AFP/Getty Images

The statue of Goddess Bereginya is illuminated by lights placed where 100 activists were killed during the 2014 anti-government protests on Feb. 20 at Independence Square in Kiev, Ukraine.
Sergey Dolzhenko, European Pressphoto Agency

A pro-Russian rebel walks through a destroyed position of Ukrainian forces near the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve on Feb. 20, 2015. Germany and France demanded that a crumbling Ukraine truce be "fully respected" even as pro-Russian rebels celebrated a battlefield victory in a strategic town and exchanged artillery fire elsewhere with government troops. PHOTO / ANDREY BORODULINANDREY BORODULIN/AFP/Getty Images ORIG FILE ID: 538081747
Andrey Borodulin, AFP/Getty Images

Residents line up waiting for a delivery of aid as a Russia-backed rebel guards a pile of weapons and ammunition on Feb. 20outside an administration building in Debaltseve, Ukraine.After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell on Feb. 18 to Russia-backed separatists.
Vadim Ghirda, AP

A young girl leans on a cart used to carry tree branches for fire, outside a damaged apartment building in Debaltseve, Ukraine. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell Wednesday to Russia-backed separatists.
Vadim Ghirda, AP

A woman visits the temporary memorial for Maidan activists on Feb 20 in Kiev, Ukraine. The activists were killed during anti-government protests one year ago near the city's Independence Square.
Sergey Dolzhenko, European Pressphoto Agency

A Russia-backed rebel looks at the flag-covered body of an Ukrainian serviceman in Debaltseve, Ukraine. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell on Feb. 18 to Russia-backed separatists.
Vadim Ghirda, AP

A man holding a Ukrainian flag stands vigil at Maidan Square in Kiev. Ukraine is commemorating the first anniversary of the Feb. 20, 2014, sniper attacks that killed dozens of protesters in the Maidan and were followed thereafter by the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.
Sean Gallup, Getty Images

Russia-backed rebels pose by a road sign on Feb. 20, 2015, at the entrance in Debaltseve, Ukraine, after checking the access road into town for mines they suspected were laid down by retreating Ukrainian government troops. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub fell to Russia-backed separatists.
Vadim Ghirda, AP

Ukrainian government soldiers who withdrew from Debaltseve prepare to return to support a further pullout of troops on Feb.19 in Artemivsk, Ukraine. Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from the strategic town on Feb. 18 after they were surrounded by pro-Russia rebels.
Brendan Hoffman, Getty Images

Pro-Russia rebels fire a volley of Grad missiles at Ukrainian government troops on Feb. 18 near Debaltseve. Ukrainian troops pulled out of Debaltseve after it was stormed by pro-Russia rebels.
Andrey Borodulin, AFP/Getty Images

A man tries to remove pieces of broken glass from a window in a school damaged by a Grad missile on Jan. 25 in Vostochniy, eastern Ukraine. Thirty people were killed when rockets slammed into a market, schools, homes and shops.
Evgeniy Maloletka, AP

Ukrainian servicemen ride an APC in the front-line village of Orlovka near Donetsk. Pro-Russian rebels vowed to conquer more territory in eastern Ukraine and ruled out peace talks after Kiev retreated from a long-disputed airport.
Oleksandr Stashevskiy, AFP/Getty Images

A local man puts out the fire at his burning house after shelling in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Sept. 7, 2014. Strong explosions were heard early Sunday on the outskirts of the main rebel-held city in eastern Ukraine near the airport, raising new fears that a cease-fire signed two days ago is on the verge of collapse. Blasts powerful enough to be heard in downtown Donetsk came from the area near the airport, which has been under the control of government troops since May and has come under unremitting attacks from pro-Russia separatist rebels since then. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits) ORG XMIT: XSG105
Sergei Grits AP

Personnel from the Kiev-1 police force battalion check crates of Russian-made 9M113 Konkurs portable wire-guided anti-tank missile launchers in the basement of a building in Slaviansk.
Sergei Kozlov, European Pressphoto Agency

Residents of Mariupol, Ukraine, dig trenches and build fortifications with sandbags. They are assisting Ukrainian troops in organizing their defense on the outskirts of the city.
Alexander Khudoteply, AFP/Getty Images

Detained Ukrainian border guards sit in a garage at the Novoazovsk border crossing point in eastern Ukraine. In Novoazovsk, pro-Russia rebel fighters looked to be in firm control after heavy shelling a day before.
Sergei Grits, AP

A photograph released by DigitalGlobe via NATO on Aug. 28 allegedly shows Russian military units moving in a convoy with self-propelled artillery in the area of Krasnodon, Ukraine.
DigitalGlobe/NATO, via AFP/Getty Images

A photograph provided by DigitalGlobe via NATO allegedly shows six Russian 153mm 2S19 self-propelled guns located in Russia near Kuybyshevo. This site is situated 4 miles south of the Ukraine border near the village of Chervonyi Zhovten. The guns are pointing towards Ukrainian territory.
DigitalGlobe/NATO via AFP/Getty Images

In February, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine without any resistance. Since then, the Ukrainian military has become a significant fighting force, as demonstrated by the attack on the convoy and its recent successes against pro-Russian separatists in several eastern Ukraine cities.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to ramp up the fight with Ukraine, he risks long-term consequences, loss of life and battlefield deaths, Brzezinski said. Ukraine's military is no match for Russia, but it has passion on its side to defend its territory. Even Ukrainians in the east have not embraced the rebellion.

"Russia now knows it's not going to be able to just walk into east Ukraine and seize it like it did in Crimea," he said. "Ukrainians will fight and fight and fight."

Michael McFaul, the U.S. ambassador to Moscow until February, wrote on Twitter that if Ukrainian forces destroyed a column of regular Russian military forces, "then this has escalated in a major way."

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told British Prime Minister David Cameron that "the majority" of the Russian armored column had been destroyed by the Ukrainian artillery" Thursday night, according to a statement from Poroshenko's office.

Russia's defense ministry denied Friday that any military force crossed its border into east Ukraine and called the Ukrainian report "some kind of fantasy."

Damon Wilson, who served as a Russia and Ukraine expert under Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, says Putin is trying to sow confusion while continuing to deny Western claims that Russia is behind the unrest in eastern Ukraine.

"His rebels are in trouble, and he's got to do something," Wilson said.

Ukrainian troops have surrounded and besieged the eastern cities of Donestsk and Luhansk, the last remaining separatist strongholds, where separatist fighters "are trying to burrow into the civilian population," Brzezinski said.

Ukraine has proceeded slowly in part to limit civilian casualties, adopting a "slow strangulation approach" with "the hope that separatists accept that they will lose," he said.