Call it a lack of political convictions, or a pragmatic openness to changed political circumstances and new ideas — Boris Johnson’s ability to change tack is attractive to lobbyists | Stephan Rousseau/AFP via Getty Images

Bending Boris Johnson’s ear

The public affairs world is mulling how to approach a government led by the former Brexit campaign frontman.

The lobbying industry isn’t sure what Boris Johnson stands for — and they’re OK with that.

The smart money in Westminster says Johnson will win the Conservative leadership race this month and will be on the hunt for fresh ideas beyond Brexit to make his mark as the country’s prime minister.

After Theresa May spent three years seeing her policy plans submerged by the effort to leave the EU, public affairs firms are eager for a new premier with new energy. But the big question will be how to grab the attention of the former foreign secretary and bend his ear to the desires of their clients.

Each new head of government comes with their own challenges for lobbyists: Their interests and passions, their quirks of character and the people they select to guard their time and attention.

Johnson’s unpredictability is one feature lobbyists say they will have to adapt to if he enters Downing Street.

In interviews with POLITICO, lobbyists said they hoped Johnson’s unusual style and comfortableness with switching policy positions would present an opportunity.

“The thing you have got to understand about him is he is a pragmatist above everything else,” said Nick Faith, director of public affairs firm WPI strategy. “Whereas you have more hardcore ideologues who have very fervent views on specific issues, I think what you have got with Boris is someone who actually is open to ideas and open to being persuaded in different directions.”

POLITICO approached Johnson’s campaign team for comment on this article but they did not respond.

Flip-flop

Johnson’s unpredictability is one feature lobbyists say they will have to adapt to if he enters Downing Street. The figurehead of the Leave campaign has flip-flopped on big ideas including May’s Brexit deal and expanding Heathrow Airport.

“That does pose problems for people who are trying to advise companies and other organizations about how they should approach government,” said a senior lobbying consultant, “because, bluntly, we are not mind readers.”

Johnson’s unpredictability is one feature lobbyists say they will have to adapt to if he enters Downing Street | Leon Neal/Getty Images

Faith argues that Johnson’s ability to sense where the political wind is blowing and move with it feeds his image of a sometimes erratic politician. “Boris is nothing but pragmatic, and with a wafer thin majority [in parliament] it will be difficult to judge how he might end up veering on politically sensitive issues,” he said.

That includes “whether to outright pursue a no deal if the October 31 deadline comes and goes and a possible agreement is in sight, as well as on infrastructure projects or day-to-day tax and spend,” Faith added.

In 2015, Johnson promised he would “lie down ... in front of those bulldozers” to prevent the expansion of Heathrow Airport, which borders his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency in West London. Only a few years later, he appears to have shifted his priorities.

After failing to take part in a Commons vote approving the Heathrow project in 2018 — he was widely regarded to have dodged the event — he later hinted at softening his stance, telling a Tory leadership TV debate he still has “grave reservations” about the new runway but would keep an eye on any court action against it.

Call it a lack of political convictions, or a pragmatic openness to changed political circumstances and new ideas — Johnson’s ability to change tack is attractive to lobbyists. A premier who is not fixed to one position but willing to be won round is more appealing to the lobbying community than an ideologue.

Johnson’s agenda is also wide open. If he wins out over Hunt he will come to office with a list of policy announcements pitched at Tory hustings events but no detailed manifesto and several big-ticket issues still up in the air.

With the leadership race for now firmly focused on the 160,000-strong Conservative membership that will pick the next leader, priorities will shift once Johnson has to appeal to the whole country.

"Depending on who is around Boris obviously changes the dynamic a bit” — Giles Derrington, policy chief at techUK

But he has been lukewarm on the HS2 line between London and the Midlands, after a poll showed a majority of Conservative Party members want it scrapped. He told a party hustings last month that he had asked Douglas Oakervee, a former chairman of the London Crossrail line, to lead a review into the controversial project.

Business concerns

Before he launches or cancels any big infrastructure projects, Johnson first needs to make peace with the business community.

He caused a storm in 2018 when he was reported to have said “f**k business” in response to corporate concerns about Brexit, during a conversation with the Belgian ambassador to the EU Rudolf Huygelen.

The indiscretion has haunted him since — and it’s something lobbyists are keen to use to their advantage.

The senior lobbying consultant said the incident led to a “trust deficit” between the prime ministerial hopeful and the business community, adding: “It’s likely he will want to address that in office and build bridges.”

The smart money in Westminster says Johnson will be on the hunt for fresh ideas beyond Brexit to make his mark as the country’s PM | Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images

According to Faith, “he is desperately trying to disassociate himself from that comment, because clearly he realizes that the Conservative Party should be the natural home for businesses of all sizes. I think that gives organizations who are trying to influence his agenda a clear opportunity to make an early play.”

Giles Derrington, policy chief at industry lobby group techUK, said it was a relief when Johnson’s former leadership rival Matt Hancock came onside with Johnson’s campaign. Before pulling out of the contest, Hancock ridiculed Johnson’s comments: “To the people who say ‘f**k business’, I say ‘f**k, f**k business,” Hancock told the Financial Times.

“The impression we get is that one of the things [Hancock] is there to help Boris with, is that pro-business narrative,” says Derrington, "So depending on who is around Boris obviously changes the dynamic a bit.”

Johnson’s core political pitch to win the leadership contest is likely to alienate more businesses than it attracts. He has vowed to take the country out of the EU “do or die” by the Brexit deadline of October 31, even if that means quitting without a deal — which many business groups say would be hugely damaging.

But another senior figure at a major London lobbying firm says business leaders will “need to leave that at the door” when they approach a Johnson administration.

“If they go in with scare stories about a no-deal Brexit to Boris, that is going to get them off on the wrong foot because he will see it as ‘Project Fear,’” the lobbyist said.

“Love him or hate him, it will be his views on Brexit that get him into No. 10. It will be his mandate. So you can’t tell him to rip up the central part of his mandate.”