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Wednesday, December 28, 2016

There are a few different ways. First of all let me define what we’re talking
about here, some teams coaching staffs collect tackle statistics, and their
relative definitions of a tackle can vary widely. What do you do when a player runs out-of-bounds,
is anyone credited with a tackle, the closest defender, a defender if they ran
them OOB? What about the second guy in,
the third, etc. Well, in recent years
the NFL has done an excellent job of better standardizing unofficial statistics
like tackles, passes defensed or forced fumbles by giving prescriptive guidance
to the folks who compile play-by-plays.
For the purposes of this discussion, tackles are those that are compiled
by the league from play-by-plays . . . the type you’ll find on NFL.com, Pro Football
Reference, or any of the typical web-sights, though not necessarily what might
be in next years team media guides.

So how do we know the Seahawks are inflating, and how do
they compare to other teams? First, let’s
look at the number of total tackles (solo tackles plus assisted tackles)
they’ve credited as a portion of all the tackle opportunities. Tackle opportunities are completed passes
minus passing TD’s allowed plus rushing plays minus rushing TD’s allowed, these
are the plays where a defender could have made a tackle. There is typically more than one tackle
credited per opportunity over the course of the season as – we can all observe
– there are certain plays where, clearly, more than one player is in on the
tackle. Year-to-date (through 16 of 17
weeks) across the league for every tackle opportunity 1.22 total tackles (solo
tackles plus assisted tackles) have been credited. But the Seahawks lead the league crediting
1.33 tackles per tackle opportunity, they’re followed up by the Bills and
Giants at 1.32 and 1.31, respectively. The Chiefs, Colts and Jags, respectively, have credited 1.1, 1.11 and
1.12 tackle per opportunity.

Team

Solo

Ass

TT

%Solo

StDev

Toppy

Solo%Toppy

Ass%Toppy

TT%Toppy

Ari

619

168

787

78.7%

1.3

692

89%

24%

114%

Atl

592

265

857

69.1%

-0.4

698

85%

38%

123%

Bal

555

251

806

68.9%

-0.4

662

84%

38%

122%

Buf

619

291

910

68.0%

-0.5

687

90%

42%

132%

Car

557

292

849

65.6%

-1.0

703

79%

42%

121%

Chi

646

189

835

77.4%

1.0

698

93%

27%

120%

Cin

575

292

867

66.3%

-0.8

704

82%

41%

123%

Cle

552

288

840

65.7%

-0.9

743

74%

39%

113%

Dal

595

271

866

68.7%

-0.4

677

88%

40%

128%

Den

636

238

874

72.8%

0.3

725

88%

33%

121%

Det

599

198

797

75.2%

0.7

693

86%

29%

115%

GB

613

190

803

76.3%

0.9

659

93%

29%

122%

Hou

537

257

794

67.6%

-0.6

640

84%

40%

124%

Ind

574

199

773

74.3%

0.5

694

83%

29%

111%

Jax

638

155

793

80.5%

1.6

711

90%

22%

112%

KC

620

159

779

79.6%

1.4

708

88%

22%

110%

LA

623

206

829

75.2%

0.7

716

87%

29%

116%

Mia

593

336

929

63.8%

-1.3

740

80%

45%

126%

Min

554

268

822

67.4%

-0.6

656

84%

41%

125%

NE

483

294

777

62.2%

-1.5

664

73%

44%

117%

NO

597

231

828

72.1%

0.2

684

87%

34%

121%

NYG

661

263

924

71.5%

0.1

705

94%

37%

131%

NYJ

535

274

809

66.1%

-0.9

692

77%

40%

117%

Oak

601

159

760

79.1%

1.3

650

92%

24%

117%

Phi

548

232

780

70.3%

-0.2

653

84%

36%

119%

Pit

594

248

842

70.5%

-0.1

656

91%

38%

128%

SD

615

197

812

75.7%

0.8

684

90%

29%

119%

Sea

507

417

924

54.9%

-2.8

695

73%

60%

133%

SF

675

241

916

73.7%

0.4

769

88%

31%

119%

TB

644

165

809

79.6%

1.4

687

94%

24%

118%

Ten

598

183

781

76.6%

0.9

663

90%

28%

118%

Was

643

262

905

71.0%

0.0

713

90%

37%

127%

League

18,998

7,679

26,677

71.2%

0.0

22,121

86%

35%

121%

These may seem like small differences, but the upshot is
that Bobby Wagner, the leagues’ total tackle leader with 155, if we adjust all
teams to 1.22 tackles per tackle opportunity** falls to second behind little
known Christian Kirksey who trails in the raw numbers by 25 with just 130 total
tackles.

But, of course, the obvious argument is that some teams naturally
do more gang tackling than others, this should be naturally observable in the
types of disparities represented in the numbers cited above. But there is a way to understand this better
as well, as these stats are compiled by the press box crew for the home team,
we can observe tackle statistics for the same team in home games versus road
games, for a team who truly gang tackles more often, you’d expect the ratios of
solo tackles to assisted tackles to be fairly consistent. What do we observe then for teams like the
Seahawks?

Home Games

Away Games

Solo

Asst

% Solo

Solo

Asst

% Solo

214

286

43%

299

138

68%

Notice a difference?
League wide solo tackles are 71% of all tackles and the road figure of
68% is certainly witin spitting distance of that, however, the home figure is
simply implausible. In fact the ratio of
tackles to tackle opportunities, if the Seahawks played every game at home
would be over 1.4. Here are some key
‘Hawks’ stats at home versus on the road:

Home

Road

Name

S

A

%S

S

A

%S

Bobby Wagner

27

57

32%

49

23

68%

KJ Wright

25

40

38%

38

14

73%

Earl Thomas

10

14

42%

14

8

64%

Richard Sherman

16

10

62%

20

10

67%

DeShawn Shead

27

18

60%

28

6

82%

Kam Chancellor

20

22

48%

21

11

66%

Consider the fact that certain position will naturally gang
tackle more than others – CB’s are unlikely to be gang tackling, LB’s and DT’s
are very likely to . . . but the trends here are indisputable, there’s home
cooking going on in the Seattle press box. So, the Seahawks get credited with more assists than other teams, more
total tackles than other teams as a function of that, and it’s all at home that
makes the difference. Is this home
cooking, or just a press box with a more liberal view of tackles? How do opponent defenders fare in tackle to
opportunity ratio and tackle to assist ration when playing in Seattle?

Solo

Asst

Ratio

Comp

CompTD

Rush

Rush TD

T Oppy

Ratio

247

296

45%

189

15

218

11

381

143%

Well, interestingly, is appears that the press box crew is
equally an outlier and not just in the favor of Seahawks. In fact, the more you play in Seattle, it
seems, the more assists and total tackles you’ll make.

Does any of this really matter, maybe, maybe not. Tackles are about the least sexy statistic
you can find, on just about every play someone makes a tackle. However, a couple seasons ago it was on the
shoulders of one huge tackle game that Luke Kuechly separated himself from the
pack to win Defensive Player of the Year, keeping J.J. Watt from winning four
straight. A quick Google search for LukeKuechly from his rookie season through the start of last year (he got some
hits as the anthers went on their Super Bowl run), reveals that the week
following his 24 tackle game – one in which he had 9 solo tackles and 15 assists
- shows that he had the most hits immediately following that 24 TT game.

So I’d argue that, tackles matter, we have crews compiling them in a
materially different manner, and that matters. This needs to be
resolved, but before Tony Dungy casts one more vote for Bobby Wagner as MVP, it
needs to be understood!

** Adjustment is calculated as players’ tackles divided by teams’ tackles per opportunity multiplied by league average tackles per opportunity. For Wagner 155 / 1.33 * 1.22 = 142