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Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Greg Hunt* gives up smoking

Greg Hunt*
is trying to give up smoking.

“All the
doctors say I need to give up smoking,” he says, “though science isn’t done by
consensus, and I’ve come across some really interesting blog posts. Now, I’m
not a doctor, but it’s pretty clear to me that there’s real uncertainty on the
question of smoking causing lung cancer or heart disease or lung disease or any
of the other things smoking is supposedly “bad” for. Smoking is
clearly good for the lungs because it helps you cough up all that junk.”

At this point he pauses to cough up some brown phlegm into a tissue.

“Anyway. I
do believe the doctors, and they say I should give up smoking completely.
Though, obviously, smoking will be a big part of my lifestyle for a long time
to come. I mean, if I stopped smoking immediately, it would cause me economic
ruin.

“Eh?” I
ask. “How’s that. You won’t be paying for cigarettes any more, and you’ll get
healthier.”

“Ah,
details.” He says. “Trust me. I have shares in tobacco. I’ll never be able to
retire if I don’t prop up the entire industry.”

“You won’t
be able to retire if you keep smoking. You’ll be dead,” I can’t stop myself
from replying.

“Only two-thirds of smokers die young, and medical care is getting better and better, and, because
I’ve had private health insurance for a long time, and shares in private health
insurance, I’m much better off economically if I keep smoking, and you don’t
look too hard at the numbers.”

“Don’t look
too hard at the numbers?”

“So, because I absolutely believe what the doctors say…”

“That you
should give up?”

“… Yes,
that I should give up, I’m going to take their advice and cut down.”

“Cut down?”

“Yes. I’m
setting a target for a 5% reduction in my cigarette consumption based on 2005
levels.”

“How much
were you smoking in 2005?”

“Oh, about 50
cigarettes per day. It was only 35 before that, but it went up.”

I examined
his face for signs of a joke, but he looked very serious.

“What? So you’re
cutting down to 47 cigarettes a day?”

“Yes, I am.
But I’m currently only smoking 35 cigarettes a day. Well. 40. But I’m allowed
to count it as 35 because of a complex cigarette accounting rule where I can
carry over previous cigarette reductions into this year.”

He managed
to keep a straight face.

“But that
means you can actually increase your smoking.”

“No. Well,
yes. But it means I’ve hit my target.”

“But you’re
increasing your smoking.”

“Well,
frankly, that’s one of the oddest and strangest and I’ve got to say ...
desperate arguments I’ve ever heard.”

There was
still no sign that he wasn’t taking this seriously.

“So. I’ve
hit my target,” he repeated with emphasis.

“But what
about stopping smoking altogether?” I ask, a little confused now.

“I aim to
cut future smoking by a 26% based on 2005 levels, by 2030. Which puts me way
ahead in the middle of the pack of my smoking cessation group.”

“What? But
your group are cutting smoking by 40% and upwards.”

“Yes, as I
said I’m way ahead of them.”

“What? 26%
compared to 40%”

“Yes. Because
I’m measuring it per capita.”

“Eh? You’re
not making any sense!” I was getting a bit frustrated now.

“Exactly. I’m
hitting targets all over the place.”

“But your
targets are rubbish. The doctors say you need to stop smoking.”

“Yes, and I’m
doing everything the doctors say with my ambitious target of reducing my smoking
by 26%, much much more than everyone else in my smoking group.”

I looked at
him. He really seemed to believe this. He looked back at me, still straight-faced.

“So how
will you achieve this tiny reduction?” I venture nervously.

“Well. I’ll
achieve this ambitious reduction with a policy. You know how those so-called
experts that I believe say we should tax cigarettes so it becomes expensive to
buy them?”

“Yes.
Definitely. There’s good evidence that it works.”

“Well. One
man’s evidence is anther man’s anecdote…”

“No, it’s
not!” I shouted

“… and that
policy would lead to me buying fewer cigarettes, and lead to my economic ruin.
No, I have a much better policy. The government will pay me for every cigarette
I don’t smoke.”

“…. What?...”

“I’ll put
in a bid in a reverse auction along with all the other smokers. And If I’m one
of the winners, then I get money for each cigarette I don’t smoke.”

“That’s a
crazy policy,” I say. “That’ll never work.”

“Oh, that’s what they all say,” he tells me. “But I know it will.”

“How do you know that?”

He waved
his hands in the air and just said “Woooooooooooo! See. It’ll work.”

He wasn’t
laughing.

“And if you
don’t win the auction?”

“I might
cut down anyway.”

“What? Well
what use is that?” I ask

“It’ll make
me stop smoking. Isn’t that what you want?”

“But… but..
what a complete waste of money!”

“Not at
all. I get the money. Do you see? I get the money. How can that be a waste? You’re
not very bright are you?”

“And what
if you get the money and don’t give up?”

“Oh, that’s
the really clever part. Listen to this. A man – or a woman, it doesn’t matter –
comes round to my house and says ‘Don’t do that again!’”

“What? Is
that it?”

“Yes. That’s
a strong robust compliance mechanism.”

“No, it isn’t.”

“I’m glad
you agree with me.”

“But I didn’t.”

“Thank you.”

I took a long slow deep breath and counted to 10.

“So. Let me
get this right. You’ve been told to stop smoking, but instead you can increase
your smoking and get money for doing it.”

“No. I hit
my targets. You’re concentrating too much on that increasing bit. I hit my
targets. And I get money. It’s a perfect system, you see.”

“And what
do your doctors say about it?”

“Oh, I don’t
believe a word they say. I found this on Wikipedia”

He looked
straight at me. Was that a smile playing around the corner of his mouth? Was
that a knowing wink I saw? No. It wasn’t.