February 19, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Men’s Basketball – Game #28 Preview – Chicago State

It’s been a nice break for Omaha to get rested up for their four game home stand to end the season and the Mavericks start it tonight against the Chicago State Bobcats. Omaha is coming off a road win at IUPUI while Chicago State was an 82-74 winner against D-II Urbana in their last ball game. These two schools are meeting for the 2nd time this year with Omaha winning the first meeting 68-66 in a neutral site game in Valparaiso, Indiana.

Chicago State While Chicago State has not proven to be a particularly strong team this year they do have a few good wins and from the first matchup it definitely seems like tonight could be competitive. In the first matchup this year Omaha was missing CJ Carter so Caleb Steffensmeier got the start and played 31 minutes, scoring 11. Omaha was led by 17 from Justin Simmons and Alex Phillips.

Chicago State relied on three main scorers, Matt Ross who had 13 points and seven rebounds, Jeremy Robinson who had 14 points and 11 rebounds, and Greg Tucker who had 14 points. It ended up being Greg Tucker’s highest scoring game of the year and he won’t be a factor tonight since he hasn’t played any real minutes since early December.

Matt Ross has been the 2nd leading scorer for Chicago State and has been in double figures in eight of the last 10 games. He’s a big man with good range as he shoots 35% from three and hit two of six against Omaha. He leads the team in rebounding with 6.6 per game. Jeremy Robinson is 3rd in the team in scoring with 9.5 per game and has been real up and down. He’s score 0 points on three occasions but has hit 20 as well. He’s averaging 5.6 rebounds as well and is more of an inside presence with Ross. The matchup down low between Ross/Robinson and Welhouse/Karhoff should be interesting to watch.

Chicago State’s leading scorer is Quinton Pippen, and yes he is related to Scottie. Quinton is Pippen’s nephew and is a good scorer just like his uncle. The 6-4 guard is averaging a team leading 10.4 points and is also among the team leaders in assists and rebounds. Pippen was held to just six points against Omaha as he went 2-9 from three and 2-12 from the field overall. Pippen has taken 66% of his shots from deep and has only attempted 24 FTs this year, a definite shooter to keep an eye on.

The Bobcats are a deep team who have used 11 starting lineups with only Ross and Robison starting every game. Six Bobcats average at least 20 minutes per game with another five averaging at least 10. Defensively they are 10th nationally in steals with 9.9 a game. Quinton Pippen average a team high 1.8 but five average at least one per game.

Getting back to the first game, Omaha shot 22 FTs compared to just eight for Chicago State. Omaha’s 16-22 shooting from the line was the different maker as they were outrebounded by one but gave up 15 offensive rebounds. Omaha also shot 49% from the field and weren’t particularly sloppy with the ball, only turning it over 14 times.

Tonight’s going to be a challenge but there’s no doubt Omaha should win this one at home.

Chicago State has played a fairly grueling schedule but they do have some bad losses as well. Their only really good win was at Toledo on the last day of December.

Omaha vs. Chicago State – Overall Stats

Team

FG%

3FG%

FT%

O-PPP

D-PPP

TO Rt

A/TO

A/B%

Def FG%

Def 3FG%

Opp TO Rt

Reb%

Off Reb%

Def Reb%

BPG

Omaha

46.9%

35.9%

68.9%

0.975

1.142

20.3

0.868

50.0%

48.8%

37.9%

17.0

46.2%

25.1%

63.6%

2.7

CSU

39.7%

34.0%

73.4%

0.860

0.998

21.6

0.817

52.0%

44.5%

33.6%

22.0

51.1%

29.8%

66.9%

2.9

Favors..

Omaha

Omaha

CSU

Omaha

CSU

Omaha

Omaha

CSU

CSU

CSU

CSU

CSU

CSU

CSU

CSU

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category.

The stats don’t tell a great tale for the Mavericks. Omaha is better at shooting and most areas of the offensive game. Chicago State has an edge in FT% and assists/basket. Defensively Chicago State dominates winning every category as well as all the rebounding categories.

Three Things to Watch1) CJ Carter’s Impact – CJ missed the last matchup when he had his back injury and his presence could tip the scales in favor of the Mavericks tonight. In his place Caleb Steffensmeier stepped up and Marcus Tyus played 22 scoreless minutes but added six rebounds. Hopefully CJ can produce at those levels or above and allow Steffensmeier and Tyus to play some very strong minutes off the bench still.

2.) Karhoff/Welhouse vs. Ross/Robinson – The two big men for Chicago State combined for 27 points and 18 rebounds against Omaha the first time while Karhoff and Welhouse were held to just 14 points and nine rebounds combined. If Omaha’s big men can reverse that matchup this time it’d make it really hard for Chicago State to win.

3.) Good start – After over a week off Omaha might be a little rusty. Hopefully they don’t show any signs of it and they get off to a great start tonight.

Prediction Omaha’s playing really well and I think with them back at home and with plenty time to be prepare we’ll see a good performance tonight. I’ll take Omaha 89-73.