Thursday, June 18, 2015

Power Rankings: NBA Draft Classes - 2015 Edition

With the end of the NBA season now here (congratulations to the Golden State Warriors by the way), the NBA Draft is very quickly upon us. Last year, I posted a ranking of the best draft classes over the last 25 years. I decided that, with another draft class to add to the rankings and more knowledge about some of the younger classes, it was time to reevaluate. I revisited every draft class and evaluated the best and worst of each. In last year's Power Ranking, I went into detail on how the scoring system works. I made one slight modification to the scoring system. Each draft class gets an additional point for every league MVP to be won by a member of the draft class, with another added point awarded for each player from the draft class to win the MVP. I thought it would make sense to consider how many times that draft class produced the best player in the league for a season and how many players were able to accomplish that feat. With that said, let the countdown begin!

The average score of the 26 draft classes is just above a 12.5.

26. 2013 Class

# 25 last year

Score: -9.25

1st Pick: Anthony Bennett (26th)

Best Player: Giannis Antetokoumpo (26th)

All Stars: 0

All NBA: 0

MVP's: 0

Never Played: 12

Top 10 Flops: 4

Worst Flop: Anthony Bennett (1st - Cleveland Cavaliers)

Notable 2nd Rounders: 0

Last year, I said the jury was still out on this class. Although they improved their score slightly, David Stern's last draft is starting to look like an all-time worst. There is some promising talent in this class that is still developing (Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, Kelly Olynyk), and the emergence of the Greek Freak gives this class some hope. However, they join the most recent draft as the only ones not to log an All Star or All NBA selection, half the top 10 looks to be busts, and the whole second round was a waste. The most notable player not picked in the first round might be a player who wasn't even drafted: Matthew Dellavedova. On top of that, Anthony Bennett is on track to be the worst top pick the NBA has ever seen. At least a bust like Greg Oden could blame injuries, and a bust like Michael Olowokandi still had a 10 year semi-productive career. If nothing changes, Bennett could be out of the league by the end of next season with nothing to blame but his poor performance.

25. 2014 ClassNR last year

Score: -4

1st Pick: Andrew Wiggins (14th)

Best Player: Andrew Wiggins (23rd)

All Stars: 0

All NBA: 0

MVP's: 0

Never Played: 18

Top 10 Flops: 3

Worst Flop: Joel Embiid (3rd - Philadelphia 76ers)

Notable 2nd Rounders: 1

Yes, even the most recent class bested the 2013 class. This class will only be moving higher in the future as Andrew Wiggins continues to develop into the All Star everyone expects him to be. Add to that guys like Jabari Parker coming off injury, Marcus Smart, and others, this is a solid class. One player that can truly make this a special class is Joel Embiid. If he is able to come back from injury and be the talent everyone thinks he can be, then this could be a top 10 class.

24. 2000 Class

# 24 last year

Score: 1.5

1st Pick: Kenyon Martin (16th)

Best Player: Michael Redd (25th)

All Stars: 3 (Kenyon Martin, Jamaal Magloire, Michael Redd)

All NBA: 1 (Michael Redd)

MVP's: 0

Never Played: 8

Top 10 Flops: 6

Worst Flop: DerMarr Johnson (6th - Atlanta Hawks)

Notable 2nd Rounders: 1

This class seems to be pretty set in its place in history as most of these players are now out of the league. There are some impact players still in the league like Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, and Hedo Turkoglu, but they are definitely in the twilight of their careers. It is pretty telling just how weak the draft is when your only All NBA player was originally a 2nd round pick.

23. 2010 Class

# 23 last year

Score: 4.25

1st Pick: John Wall (13th)

Best Player: DeMarcus Cousins (24th)

All Stars: 3 (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George)

All NBA: 2 (DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George)

MVP's: 0

Never Played: 11

Top 10 Flops: 4

Worst Flop: Al-Farouq Aminu (# 8 - LA Clippers)

Notable 2nd Rounders: 2

There is some other decent talent in this draft class, but the success of this class revolves around Wall, Cousins, and George. Wall and Cousins have had questions about effort and motivation, while George will be trying to regain his form after a horrific injury playing with Team USA last summer. If they can actually look like the players their talent says they should be, this draft class could still improve its positioning.

When this class was good, it was great. Aldridge is one of the better players in the league right now, and Paul Millsap might be the best 2nd round selection in the last 10 years. However, this is by far the worst top 10 of any draft class on the list. I counted 7 flops in the top 10, but let's look at it a little closer. Outside of Aldridge, the other two "successes" are Rudy Gay, who has played for three teams in his nine year career, and Brandon Roy, who after being the Rookie of the Year was forced into early retirement due to bad knees. So Aldridge is the only top 10 pick still making an impact on his original team (well, after the draft day trade for Tyrus Thomas).

21. 2011 Class

# 22 last year

Score: 8.75

1st Pick: Kyrie Irving (8th)

Best Player: Kyrie Irving (20th)

All Stars: 3 (Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler)

All NBA: 2 (Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson)

MVP's: 0

Never Played: 7

Top 10 Flops: 5

Worst Flop: Derrick Williams (2nd - Minnesota Timberwolves)

Notable 2nd Rounders: 2

The two best players from this draft class just faced off in the NBA Finals. With Klay and Kyrie leading the class, and the emergence of Jimmy Butler and Isaiah Thomas, this class ended up having a solid core. However, when it missed, it was bad. From Derrick Williams to Jonas Valanciunas to Bismack Biyombo to the great Jimmer Fredette, this class had more duds than studs.

This draft class tumbled down the rankings this year for one primary reason: Dwight Howard. We have gotten used to looking at Dwight Howard as a possible all-time great big man, but this season started to make everyone wonder if Dwight Howard will ever become what we hoped he could be. Sadly, it looks like his best is behind him, which means he will never reach the lofty heights he once had the potential of attaining.

This is a draft class full of good players with very few great players. Add to that a major bust out of your first overall pick, and you take what could have been one of the better all-around draft classes and put it in the back third of this list.

18. 2007 Class

# 16 last year

Score: 9.75

1st Pick: Greg Oden (24th)

Best Player: Kevin Durant (10th)

All Stars: 4 (Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol)

All NBA: 4 (Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol)

MVP's: 1 (Kevin Durant - 2014)

Never Played: 11

Top 10 Flops: 4

Worst Flop: Greg Oden (1st - Portland TrailBlazers)

Notable 2nd Rounders: 5

This draft class produced possibly the biggest disparity between the first and second picks. The Blazers went with Oden, who barely saw the court due to injuries. The Sonics (damn you, Clay Bennett) went with Durant, who looks like he could be an all-time great. However, recent injuries force you to question just how long Durant will be able to be as great as he has been. If things go poorly and Durant ends up never recovering from his current injuries, this may go down as the draft of greatness that never was.

This draft class is just below average out of the 26 classes. There were a lot of really good players that came out of this class, however all that is overshadowed by the big bust at the top in Kwame Brown. Not even Michael Jordan coming out of retirement could make Kwame work in the NBA. This pick I think single-handedly started the conversation of disallowing high schoolers from entering the Draft.

This is another draft class with a lot of good players but few great ones. Even Billy Owens, the Draft's biggest flop, was a solid pro, but when he is the only player out of the top five not to be an All Star, it makes him a flop. This draft does have one of the few Hall of Famers from these draft classes so far, but also had a lackluster 2nd round with very little value. All this adds up to an average class.

This draft class was helped by the scoring change of adding in points for MVP awards. Kevin Garnett you could say led to the phenomenon of picking high schoolers that led to terrible picks like Kwame Brown going first. He also remains one of the few players still on a roster that was drafted in the '90s.

The first draft class to be above the average line, the 1993 class got a lot of stuff right at the top of the draft as five of the top 11 became All Stars. Chris Webber became one of the best personalities in the NBA for more than a decade, and Penny Hardaway became the first of Shaq's many mini sidekicks. I think the most important lesson learned from this draft class came from Shawn Bradley. Just because you are taller than everyone doesn't mean you will be better than everyone.

This draft class dropped greatly in the rankings this year. What was a top five class last year is now out of the top ten. There are a few things that play into this. First, the MVP's won by players in other draft classes have allowed them to hop over the class of 2005. Also, I may have been a little more critical of Chris Paul's place among the all-time greats than I was last year. Ranking these players is so hard!

This is an interesting draft class to be this high. There is not much that separates this class from some of the so-so classes near the bottom of this class. The difference with the 1994 class comes from a couple different things. First, Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards to be drafted in the last 26 years. Second, there were very few mistakes made in the top 10 of this draft. With only two flops in the top ten, this is one of the best top tens of any class. It turned out to be not very deep though, as all of this class's All Stars came from the top ten.

This is an interesting class, headlined by Gary Payton, one of the more versatile point guards of his generation. It is forgotten just how good Derrick Coleman was for awhile in the early '90s. Injuries derailed what could have been a great career. Could we be looking at Dwight Howard following a similar career path to Derrick Coleman?

It is amazing to think about how good Yao could have been if he hadn't gotten hurt. Thinking about his foot problems that ended his career makes me nervous looking at the future of a player like Kevin Durant. Seeing a player like Carlos Boozer come out of the second round adds to the overall depth and strength of the draft class.

This draft class hopped into the top 10 this year, which is strange when you consider that Michael Olowokandi is one of the worst top picks in draft history. However, he was one of the few misses in this draft which produced three of the best players of the last 15 years in Carter, Pierce, and former MVP Dirk. Also, it helps that only two players drafted that year never saw the court in the NBA, which is tied for the lowest number of any draft class.

Before it is all said and done, this could be competing with some of the best draft classes on this list. This class took a big leap this year with the emergence of Anthony Davis as the next great superstar. Damian Lillard has also shown the ability to be a perennial All Star as well. Part of what makes this draft class strong is we simply don't know enough about some of the top picks to determine whether they are busts or not. As it stands now though, there is only one bust, Thomas Robinson, and even he has shown signs of being a solid NBA pro. He has just been hurt by playing on 4 teams in his first 3 seasons. Add to that only 5 players not playing yet from this class, and recent NBA Finals hero Draymond Green coming from this class's 2nd round, and you have a class that will be fun to track over the next 10 years.

This draft class does not have any all-time greats in it, but it produced about as many good players as any other draft class. With six of the top 10 ending up All Stars, and the best player from the class being the second to last pick of the draft, you have a strong draft class and a deep class. Its drop in the rankings this year is due to the fact that it didn't have an all-time great, and therefore did not have an MVP in this class.

This is a great example of how one transcendent player can save a draft class from infamy. If it wasn't for Tim Duncan being one of the best players of all time, there would be very little in this class to talk about. However, Duncan is one of only three multiple MVP winners drafted in this era and has single-handedly placed this class in the top ten.

This draft class is on the rise and should continue to improve year after year. There are truly four players (Griffin, Harden, Curry, DeRozen) that have the potential of being some of the league's best players for the next decade. This year saw the emergence especially of Harden and reigning league MVP and NBA champion Curry, who many are saying could go down as one of the greatest shooters the league has ever seen.

It is strange to have a class of players still in the prime of their career where the one player to win a league MVP is not the current best player from the class. However, thanks to Derrick Rose's constant knee injuries over the last few years, he is constantly trying to work his way back to the lofty heights he once knew. In the mean time, players like Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love have taken the torch as the best the class has to offer, and they ain't bad either. This is also the first class to boast two All NBA players from its 2nd round. There are also other players like Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum, and George Hill that could potentially make an All Star Team or All NBA team before all is said and done. This draft class, although already up to 4th, can still move higher if all works out well.

This draft class was special, as it produced two of the greatest centers the league has ever seen. Shaq and Zo may be the best top two picks of any draft class discussed here. This class also has one of the most decorated collegiate players of all time in Christian Laettner who many people view as a bust, but he did make an All Star team in a career that lasted more than a decade. With time, this class will probably lose a little ground to some of the younger classes that could potentially pass it up. It won't be easy though as they are over two points passed 4th place right now though, and their score isn't done either as Shaq will definitely end up in the Hall of Fame before all is said and done.

Having the best player of a generation would be one way to have a top draft class, which this class has. However, this class has four of the best players of the last decade in James, Anthony, Bosh, and Wade. It is also tied for the second most All Stars of any draft class on the list, with that list expanding this last season with Kyle Korver making his first All Star Game in his 12th season. It is very possible for this score to keep growing as LeBron could still win more MVP awards and will eventually be a Hall of Famer. This may not be the best draft class on this list, but it is definitely the best draft class of this generation.

When I added the new category of MVP awards in the scoring system this year, I thought it might change our top draft class on the list in what was a very close competition last year. However, it just made this draft class look even more impressive. It still has more All Stars than any other class and more All NBA players than any other class. It is tied with 2003 for most MVP awards, but where LeBron has won all the trophies for the 2nd place class, this is the first class to have multiple players win an MVP, and it has three. Steve Nash is only the 3rd player in this era to have multiple MVP awards. Marcus Camby was the second overall pick, and although he never made an All Star Game or All NBA Team, he did win a Defensive Player of the Year Award. Forget this era, this may be the greatest draft class the NBA has ever seen.