As soon as the bloggers and journalists of awards-season finished analyzing (and retweeting) the 2014 Oscar broadcast, they began speculating about next year’s potential nominees (Jersey Boys? Big Eyes?). A lot has changed since then, with the aforementioned films falling short of expectations and some smaller films stealthily sneaking to the front of the pack. There’s been an excess of who-cares mini-controversies (op-eds bemoaning historical inaccuracies, category-placement confusions, straight-up obnoxious Twitter outbursts), while journalists squeeze out every headline they can. Film writers have called this year’s crop of contenders smaller than usual, but they’re far from correct. Sure, some categories are easy to call, but the Best Picture race still leaves plenty of opportunities for snubs and shocks. Unlike profesional Oscar pundits, I haven’t seen every film, overheard industry whispering, or attended any cast-and-crew luncheons. But after much copying-and-pasting, fact-checking, and second-guessing, I’ve come up with my predictions for the major categories, with the nominees ranked in order of likeliness.

Best Picture

A Note: During the past three years, the Academy has allowed five to ten films to be nominated, and nine has been the magic number each time. Deciding how many films will snag noms this time is sheer speculation, so I’ve listed ten.

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. Selma

4. The Imitation Game

5. Whiplash

6.The Theory of Everything

7. The Grand Budapest Hotel

8. Gone Girl

9. Foxcatcher

10. Unbroken

Analysis:

Drawing on the consensus of critics, box-office data, other Oscar experts’ picks, nominations from other awards-groups with overlapping voter-bodies, and my own forecasting, these are the ten films that have the best shot at a nom. Looking closely, my picks can be divided into debatably hyper-specific groups. At the front of the race are three films: coming-of-age journey Boyhood, showy show-business dramedy Birdman, and M.L.K. drama Selma. There’s no chance those films won’t get nominated. To a lesser extent, the same can be said about a duo of beloved indies (Whiplash and The Grand Budapest Hotel) and two period biopics (The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything). It’s the last three remaining spots spots that get tricky. Gone Girl (a populist pick voters can feel good about)and Foxcatcher, two relatively divisive early-fall psychological thrillers, should get in there.

Unbroken and American Sniper, two true-stories of war bravery released on Christmas, will be duking it out for the tenth spot. Many critics have been calling Bradley Cooper’s lead performance the best thing about Sniper, but it’s difficult to imagine him getting nominated in that busy field. That, coupled with liberal voters wary of director Clint “Empty Chair” Eastwood, will weaken the film’s chances. That gives the edge to Unbroken, which despite negative reviews, can be called two of the Academy’s favorite adjectives: “tough-to-watch” and “crowd-pleasing”. If one of those two doesn’t make it, an under-the-radar arthouse pic (Nightcrawler or Mr. Turner) or a Hollywood epic (Interstellar orInto TheWoods)could sneak in. But don’t count on it. I’ll stand by my ten picks.

After 6 months of obsessive predictions, studio scheming, marketing madness, Red Carpet overload, and one awards show after another, the Oscars (and the end of the awards season) are just a little more than 24 hours away.

Every year, the September-February thrill ride starts with Telluride and Toronto and just keeps on going. From Golden Globes fun and the Oscar nominations, to non-stop campaigns and Academy Q&A’s; through gossipy controversy and endless critique, past last-minute releases and release-date changes, over Oscar bets, shocking interviews, a nominee change (!), and… When does it stop?

Every year Awards Season feels a little bit…predictable. Yes, there’s the acting category surprises and the films that came out of nowhere to be claimed as “frontrunners” and the ballyhoo-causing cast and crew disputes that threaten to change everything (and normally change nothing). But, through all the nonsense, there’s always one film that gets called a Best Picture lock, gets called an “also-ran”, has a surprise comeback, gets rejected again, and ends up winning.

That’s exactly why this year’s Oscar race feels genuinely refreshing. When was the last time a nerve-wracking three-way-race for Best Picture had everyone biting their nails off? That’s certainly the case this year, with 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle all vying for the big win. But enough with all this talk…who’s going to win?

Well, I’ll cut to the chase: 12 Years a Slave. Sure, Gravity is as suspenseful and groundbreaking as movies get and American Hustle is the type of crowd-pleasing ensemble period-piece dramedy that seems like a shoo-in. But 50 years from now, voters will want people to look back at 2014 as the year the “Important Movie” won and12 Years a Slave fits that bill. Of course, they’ll also want to recognize a fine cast, careful direction, and a resonant script. But Oscar voters aren’t always known for picking Best Picture based on which is their favorite. Though it sounds (and is) silly, voters sometimes have other agendas. By selecting 12 Years a Slave, voters will be selecting the the indie studio flick, the critical favorite, the hard-to-watch controversy, the predictable-ish frontrunner, and the historical drama. Honestly, none of those descriptions will make the Academy look bad. So when everything boils down, there’s no real suspense for me. Based on everything I know about the Oscars, 12 Years a Slave will win Best picture. Now we just have to see if the Academy agrees with itself.

This past Sunday, 21 million viewers watched the Golden Globes. The show was filled with bad jokes, rambling speeches, and surprise winners (I scored a just-okay 11 out of 24 on my predictions). But while the Globes can be great fun, there’s one awards show that simply towers above the rest: the Oscars. This year, Ellen DeGeneres will host the 86th Academy Awards on March 2. But until then, I’ll be obsessing over one big question: who will win? And before that: Who will be nominated? That’s the question of the day and I’m here to give you the answers. Without further ado, here’re my predictions and thoughts for 10 main categories (all in random, order, except Best Picture)…

Best Picture (Ranked):

1. 12 Years A Slave

2. American Hustle

3. Gravity

4. Nebraska

5. Her

6. Captain Phillips

7. Saving Mr. Banks

8. The Wolf of Wall Street

9. Inside Llewyn Davis

10. Dallas Buyers Club

Thoughts: There can be 5-10 nominees here but 3 really stand out; 12 Years A Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity are as close to sure-things as possible, while Nebraska and Her should get plenty of votes to round out the top 5. After that, Captain Phillips is a likely 6th nom. But then it gets really murky… Here’s where the 5-10 nominees rule helps: to get nominated, a movie needs 5% of voters to rank a film as their top choice. With that in mind, Saving Mr. Banks, Inside Llewyn Davis, and The Wolf of Wall Streetshould manage, thanks to a small number of passionate fans. Don’t be surprised if there’s no 10th nom but Dallas Buyers Club can probably make the cut.

Last year there were some huge surprises in this category and we could see some more of the same this time around. Cuarón, McQueen, and Russell have as much support as their films, but the Directors Guild (which, like the Screen Actors Guild, has some Oscar overlap) also nominated two surprises: The Wolf of Wall Street‘s Martin Scorsese and Captain Phillips’ Paul Greengrass. That puts them in a crowded field for the final two spots, along with Nebraska’s Alexander Payne and Her‘s Spike Jonze. Scorsese has years of respect and Greengrass’ taut, tense style has many fans but don’t count on either one to garner a nod: Payne and Jonze have distinctive auteur styles that would make them both perfect surprises.

Who will win? Who knows! All Is Lost‘s Robert Redford has been largely absent from important pre-cursors (the SAGs, most notably) so Hustle‘s Bale should make the cut. Otherwise, Ejiofor, McConaughey, Dern, and Hanks have battled tough competition (The Butler‘s Forrest Whitaker still has a shot) to become likely nominees.

Another group that’ll be hard to challenge. The only uncertainty is Gandolfini. Besides his performance, there’s been no awards talk for Enough Said. Daniel Bruhl has been getting a lot of love for his role in Rush, another largely unloved film, and could beat Gandolfini to make the cut. Still, Enough Said‘s late star should claim a spot.

Each of these films has been getting high acclaim for their sharp dialogue, thoughtfully written characters, and bold originality. Gravity and Enough Said are strong contenders but there’s not much gravity to either one. Enough said.

This normally predictable field of big-budget CGI kiddie comedies has found some surprising resistance in recent years by hand-drawn foreign fare. Expect the trend to continue here, with The Wind Rises especially likely to give the popular Frozen a run for its frontrunner status.

Best Original Score:

Steven Price, Gravity
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave
John Williams, The Book Thief
Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Arcade Fire, Her

Steven Price and Hans Zimmer are probable predictions but Thomas Newman’s score for Saving Mr. Banks might beat out Arcade Fire, Alex Ebert, and the beloved John Williams for a spot.

Those are all my predictions for the main nominees but you can tune in tomorrow morning to hear the new Academy president Cheryl Boones Isaac announce the nominees, along with Thor star Chris Hemsworth. Expect more Oscar coverage to come!

The Golden Globes are like the Oscars’ funnier, more relaxed younger brother and they’re back for their 71st year. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler (hosting for the second time) are sure to have plenty of offensive jokes up their sleeves and there’ll probably be an hour more Red-Carpet coverage than really necessary. But how about the nominees? Who’s going to walk away with all the gold? Who’ll be snubbed? What will be the big surprise of the night? I’m here to give you my in-depth predictions on all the Film categories (probable winners are in bold). Let’s get started!

Best Motion Picture, Drama:12 Years a SlaveCaptain PhillipsGravityPhilomenaRush
Analysis: It’s basically a two way fight here: 12 Years a Slave vs Gravity. The Globes often pick the lighter film (Gravity, in this case) and are known for surprises. Still, though Slave has been criticized by some voters it has greater awards momentum. Either could win but expect 12 Years A Slave to come out on top.

Best Director – Motion Picture:
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska) David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Analysis: An almost impossible category to predict. Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell are all gunning for the big prize. If 12 Years A Slave wins Best Drama voters may want to spread some Gravity love (the film is also more of a technical achievement). So, assuming it comes down to Cuaron and Russell, American Hustle will probably champion. The film has more nominations and a likely Best Comedy win can’t hurt.

Best Actress In A Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Analysis: Every awards show loves Meryl Streep but she’s won a lot and her new film isn’t getting much praise. As long as Hustle wins Best Comedy, Amy Adams is a sure thing.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama:Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Analysis: This is easily the toughest category to call. Many are predicting a surprise win for McConaughey but the Globes seem to prefer 12 Years a Slave over Dallas Buyers Club, which would position Ejiofor as winner.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Analysis: If voters really love American Hustle, Christian Bale could win. But awards shows like showing respect to film legends and Bruce Dern gave the performance of a lifetime.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Analysis: Nyong’o and Squibb have earned a lot of support for star-making turns. But the Globes loves mega-star celebrities and Lawrence certainly fits that category. It doesn’t hurt that American Hustle has support from almost every major category.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Brühl (Rush)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Analysis: Jared Leto has been sweeping the critics awards for this category and many are calling him the undeniable frontrunner. Though his film doesn’t have much support outside of it’s actors, it’s safe to say Leto will win.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:
Spike Jonze (Her)
Bob Nelson (Nebraska)
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan (Philomena)John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Analysis: Another tough one to predict. Hustle has comedy and Her has cleverness but John Ridley’s 12 Years A Slave script has the emotional power to crown a winner.

Best Animated Feature Film:The Croods Despicable Me 2 Frozen
Analysis: In a surprise move, Monsters University was left out cold (as were smaller foreign favorites that doesn’t qualify for this category). Despicable Me 2 may be the most successful nominee but Frozen has been getting an abundance of support from critics and early award groups.

Best Foreign Language Film:Blue is the Warmest Color The Great Beauty The Hunt The Past The Wind Rises
Analysis: There’s many big-name foreign films here but none have attracted more acclaim or controversy than Blue Is The Warmest Color.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture:
Alex Ebert (All is Lost)
Alex Heffes (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)Steven Price (Gravity)
John Williams (The Book Thief)
Hans Zimmer (12 Years a Slave)
Analysis: Hans Zimmer is one of the most respected film composers on the planet but Steven Price’s score for Gravity is eerie, pounding, and, best of all, in your face. Plus, it’s often the only noise in the film.

Here is my end of the year extravaganza special showcasing my overall thoughts on the year in flicks by Flack. This article follows a (mostly) similar pattern to Flick’s article. From my top 11 list to “awards” for some top achievements in film, here is my super special epic piece of year-end movie writing.

THE TOP 11 OF THE YEAR

11. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey IMAX 3-D Better than I expected…and yet it still could have been so much better. The highlights are a thrilling three part climaxand Martin Freeman’s deadpan lead performance.

10. Life of Pi Beautiful and emotionally satisfying. So why isn’t it higher on the list? Because on the whole it’s not completely satisfying. I’m happy for those who thought the un-filmable literature masterpiece Life of Pi became filmable and more. But under the direction of Ang Lee the movie works, but doesn’t “fly”. Still the 3-D and actors are amazing.

9. Rise of the GuardiansAn underrated animated joy. Emotionally moving, dazzilingly visual, and often hilarious (especially the voices; Alec Baldwin’s Santa Claus in particular). The trailers are deceiving. It’s not all action. In fact it’s something much better than that. It’s a charming family film that deserves to be seen. This movie definitely should’ve been nominated for the Best Animated Feature at The 2013 Oscars (even if it’s not my favorite animated movie of the year!!!).

8. The Pirates: In An Adventure With Scientists 3-D This animated charmer not only works as a movie the whole family will enjoy but also as a comedy. In fact, it’s not only a comedy, it’s one of the funniest films in recent memory. The amazing animation and hilarious voice cast help make this my choice for Best Animated Feature at this year’s Oscars and my favorite animated film of the year, in general. I also had tons of fun meeting Peter Lord at TIFF!!!

7. The Amazing Spider-Man 3-D Action packed fun at it’s funnest!!! What else can I say? That people complained too much about it. But what’s great about the movie? The performances are top-notch (at least for a superhero flick) and Marc Web does a better job than Sam Raimi did with three shots at perfecting the Spidey mythology. Marc Webb’s last name spells out greatness, apparently. And that greatness sure is apparent.

6. Moonrise Kingdom Laugh out loud funny, this underrated gem of a film is a must-see. Shot partly in Rhode Island, the movie manages to be funny, dramatic, romantic, and bittersweet often all at once. Wes Anderson does an amazing job as director and the cast is stellar. Add in the gorgeous visuals and you get a film that is local, lovely, and lyrical. The story plays out like a big, long series of paintings. And that’s a great thing!

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild Powerful with a capital P. Also, flawed with a lowercase f. In a stunning starring role Quvenzhané Wallis wows. Meanwhile Benh Zeitlin does a phenomenal job with his directorial debut. I have some minor quibbles with the film but, when I put them aside, I am left with a powerful indie!!!

4. Les Miserables Terribly reviewed, Les Miserables is (alongside Pirates!) the most underrated movie of the year. The actors are terrific and the singing is soulful. Even when Russel Crowe is placed on center stage the sheer singing overrides any minor issues I had with the film.

3. Searching For Sugar Man Powerful. Deeply moving. Transcendent. Not that I’m a documentary expert of any kind, but of the ones that I’ve seen this is definitely one of the best. You don’t just watch this movie. You experience it. The emotions feel real (because they are!) and the interviews are fascinating. It’s also astonishing how much footage there is of Rodriguez (the film’s focus) playing music from the 70’s. An especially terrific scene is a misty-back to the audience concert where Rodriguez was discovered that seems filmed on an 8 millimeter camera. The film is not perfect. It’s 86 minutes long but feels closer to 180, which isn’t entirely a good thing. But the dazzling cinematography and animation plus the thrilling and surprising tale that the movie tells combine to make a film that is fascinating. It’s not a most disgusting movie. It’s a must-see, yet under-seen piece of art.

2. Lincoln Smart, brilliant, and shockingly tense for a you-know-the-outcome movie. Steven Spielberg, Daniel-Day Lewis, Tony Kushner, John Williams, and the rest of the cast and crew are all at the top of their game. Lincoln is at times dryly funny and at other times politically nerve wracking. The final scene didn’t quite fit my taste but the rest of the film is modern movie making making at it’s best. Hold on, maybe there’s something better…

1. Argo Dramatic. That’s how I’d describe this movie. The definition? Sudden and striking: “a dramatic increase in recorded crime”. Yep, sounds right. Deeply disturbing. Fantastically funny. Thrilling tensiony. The movie of the year. Ben Affleck does an astoounding job as director. His greatest feat? Keeping the laugh out loud Hollywood interludes in check with the more nail biting thriller scenes. Affleck is also terrific in his underated starring role; as CIA mastermind Tony Mendez. The supporting cast is also strong, with particularly notable work from Alan Arkin (just as good as Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln, if not better) and John Goodman. And what about the final 15 minutes or so? It’s a movie!!! Why criticize the climax of an already great film that is greatest in it’s climax (in my opinion). The plane chase may be a little bit over the top…but I’m talking about good over the top. And the perhaps slightly sappy family tie-up? Perhaps partly untruebut satisfying. This movie not only demonstrates what kind of greatness human beings can achieve, it shows the greatness that human beings can achieve through teamwork. Every individual counts. The unknown CIA agent and Tony Mendez both contributed their talents to the rescue mission. It’s the same as the film. Both the unheard of set designer and Ben Affleck both contributed their skills to the film. By working together and using teamwork, the real life mission turned out more than fine. And by teamwork Argo turned out more than fine. It turned into my favorite movie of the year… Argo watch it!!!

THE YEAR ROUNDUP

THOUGHTS ON A FEW OTHER FILMS

Brave An underwhelming animated effort from Pixar. While a slight bounce back from Cars 2, it’s still dissapointing. I’m hoping this summer’s Monsters University will mark a comeback for Pixar. In the meantime I can revel in the joys of Brave that do exist.

The Lorax 3-D Cheesy, but fun. It’s silly and shows the problem with most animation these days. But as far as a big budget re-doing of a beloved childrens’ book can go…well it’s fairly ridiculous and fun.

Jiro Dreams of Sushi A terrific documentary about sushi. Mixing nitty gritty sushi making and candid and interviews, this gem of an indie is a lyrical meditation on both life and food. Mouth wateringly great.

The Avengers 3-D It’s fun but awfully cheesey. That’s what I came away with after part of a second viewing (I only got halfway through it). But when I saw this movie for the first time, the day after it opened in 3-D, I was wowed. I didn’t think there was much to it (learn some lessons from The Amazing Spider-Man!). But I did enjoy it as a pure piece of popcorn munching summer fun. However, as I took another look at it the fun went away. Let me count the reasons it might not have worked… 1. The opening weekend summer fun was gone, gone, gone. 2. I was tired. 3. It wasn’t in 3-D. 4. And…most of all it was on a regular TV not a big screen. Well, the movie just felt silly. Not fun.

THE WORST MOVIE OF THE YEAR

John Carter 3-D By far the worst movie of the year. You’re probably guessing that’s because it’s all action, no emotion. But, shockingly, you’re wrong!!! The reason is that there’s not enough action (or story, for that matter!!!). And the action scenes that there are? Terrible. I had high hopesa possibly epic piece of sci-fi cinema from the director of Finding Nemo and WALLE (both some of the greatest animated films ever made). Instead I got a film that makes me say “Bah humbug”.

1/2 OF THE I.O. AWARDS

Here’s my thoughts on some of the best in film of the year. However, I don’t talk about my favorite film of the year because I have already talked about it (look above!!!).

Best Director:StevenSpielberg For Lincoln I think Ben Affleck (Argo) did just as good a job at directing as Steven Spielberg. But I wanted to split the top prizes and show that, even if it’s not my number 1 film of the year, I love Lincoln. So, what did Spielberg do right? I’m sure Spielberg gave the actors tips on what to do but for the most part I think the stars are responsible for their own performances. He gathered a top notch cast and let them freely make great actor decisions. Spielberg did a terrific job assembling the set designers, sound effects workers, and other many crew members and creating a historical, 1860’s feel. He also does a great job making a film that does not feature any alien abduction set pieces or overlong Civil War battle scenes. Instead he, screenwriter Tony Kushner, and the entire cast let the characters sit down and talk…NOW, NOW, NOW!!! His greatest feet, however, is having the guts to make a film that was slow. And by doing so he created a classic.

Best Actress:QuvenzhanéWallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild For someone who was 5 when cast, 6 when filmed, 8 when her film was released, and 9 when she was Oscar nominated, Quvezhane Wallis did an absolutely astonishing job in Beasts of the Southern Wild. As Hushpuppy she is strong, fierce, and powerful. Her turn as a 6 year old bayou girl facing a drunken and dying father, a missing mother, and the apocalypse may be considered not quite acting. How could someone so young come off as so professional!?!? But Wallis does an amazing job. Her tear jerking voice-overs are great as is her on screen kiddie intensity. She might not even have a chance at winning the Oscar but as far as I’m concerned she’s a total winner.

Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis for Lincoln As our country’s greatest president Day Lewis captures the man, not the myth, at his most humane. His fascinatingly real portrayal of the larger than life legend is legendary. What else can I say without rambling, something Mr. Lincoln never does in this movie?

Best Supporting Actor : Alan Arkin for Argo and TommyLeeJones for Lincoln TIE!!!Two curmudgeonly character actors with emotional depth who steal every scene they’re in, even while playing opposite movie stars in towering lead performances. Two equally great actors in equally great performances!!!

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables In a remarkable supporting turn, Anne Hathaway makes the best out of her few scenes. Her gut wrenching perfomance is tragic, terrific, and wonderfully sung.

Best Scene of the Year: I Dreamed A Dream from Les Miserables and Airplane Chase! from Argo TIE!!! The intense sadness, dazzling acting, and catchy singing of I Dreamed A Dream makes it iconic; exactly what a great scene of the year should be. The airport chase is thrilling popcorn suspense in a decidedly non-popcorn movie. And by the end of the scene (if the scene and film’s intended effect truly works on you) you’re crying and cheering, all with a smile of happiness and relief; it stays with you which is exactly what a great scene of the year should be.

SPECIAL PRIZE:Searching For Sugar Man Surprising, fascinating, bold, and amazing Searching For Sugar Man is, like many other films I saw this year, different than any other movie I have ever seen. WATCH IT!!!

YEAR RATING: 4 OUT OF 5 MOVIE REELS

There was an exciting superhero film that ultimately fell short of my expectations (The Avengers), a hilarious stop-motion adventure (The Pirates: In An Adventure With Scientists), a talky historical masterpiece (Lincoln), an action packed but flawed part 1 of a based on a book fantasy epic (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), and much, much more!!! But the true champion ended up being a pulse-pounding foreign set drama (Argo). Argo and Lincoln were the only true masterpieces of the year, even if Searching For Sugar Man and Les Miserables came pretty close. How many disasters were there? One, in the evil shape of John Carter!!! 2012 was the year of storytelling and surprises, and an amazing year at that!!!

It’s hard to believe, but it’s true. The 200th post has finally, arrived. It’s here. It’s huge. It’s stunning, and it’s ready to knock your socks off. (Cue Flick Flack theme song, whatever it is.) This September marks our third year of posting, but we thought we would celebrate our 200th post, after all it is something to celebrate. (That’s not to say we aren’t celebrating three years with all this, it’s just that 200 is worthy of a fiesta too.) So here it is: our fiesta, party, birthday, holiday (take a day off if you like), celebration, or whatever else you want to call it. This post is filled with surprises; unlike most posts where we devote our first paragraph to a preview of the post, here we’re not saying anything (at least not in this first paragraph). But if you would like the secrets of the world to be spilled, there is one thing you may do. Scroll down the page and take a listen to the eight celebratory podcasts Flick and Flack have recorded specially, exclusively, and exhaustively just for you. Note: While listening to them all straight through is much longer than most movie’s running time, but trust us, it’s worth it. Just as writing our other 199 posts have been.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

To kick it all off Flick and Flack discuss it all. This first part also includes an audio clip of Flick’s interview with Daniel Kamil and a discussion of The Avengers and a reading of Flick’s review of the film. Note: Our discussion about the best films of the year is not up to date, as we recorded this awhile ago. However it still provides interesting critiques.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

In the second part of the exciting saga Flick and Flack discuss The Avengers even more and they give you a rousing preview filled with opinions about this Fall’s movie lineup including James Bond’s latest, Skyfall.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

This third part includes a talk on why film studios matter… and just maybe, why they don’t. One of the studios talked about is Warner Bros.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

Whew. We’re halfway done. So in the center of the stage (the fourth part), we respond to questions asked by readers.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

For our fifth part we discuss some of our reader’s favorite films, including Super 8.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

As we venture into our second phase of the website we thought it might be a good idea to talk about the second phases of franchises. In other words Flick and Flack return in the sixth part to discuss their favorite movie sequels.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

In part VII we continue talking, discussing, and arguing over our favorite movie sequels.

Click on photo to hear podcast.

It’s bittersweet. It’s all ended. We come to a close with the finale: our eighth part of this series where we finally discuss our all time favorite films.

While at TIFF Kids International Film Festival we were honored to interview the Young People’s Juries. They are divided into three jury groups: Feature Films (Ages 8 to 10), Feature Films (Ages 11 to 13) and Short Films (Ages 9 to 13) to select the Golden Sprocket Award. We spoke with 6 of the 9 junior jurors. Three of them, Will (8 years old), Maggie (10 years old), and Jonathan (9 years old), selected one feature length movie to receive the Golden Sprocket. The other three we spoke to, Anthony (10 years old), Daniel (10 years old), and Dana (11 years old) selected a short film to receive the Golden Sprocket. We did not get to interview the three 11-13 year old feature film juror’s. During two festival weekends, they take notes after seeing a film at the festival, rank it out of 10 then discuss it together with their adult jury leader to pick the winners.

To get selected as jurors, children write a movie review online and submit it (for some it was part of a school project). Nine kids are picked. The jurors we interviewed, reviewed Captain America: The First Avenger, Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Hugo, Bridge to Terabithia, and WALL•E (reviewed by 2 kids). The kids are only allowed to be picked as juror’s once, but they can enter more times just for fun.

While watching TIFF films, they look for good acted, well done feature films and shorts with a great story. Films and shorts they juried included: Stay!, The Blue Tiger, Gattu, Alfie the Little Werewolf, Famous Five, Magic Piano 3-D,The Gruffalo’s Child, and Mouse For Sale. They watch each film only once with a regular audience or sometimes in a private theater. Then they agree on their favorite movies or shorts to award the Golden Sprocket.

It was interesting to hear how their jurying process is different from the Providence Children’s Film Festival‘s (PCFF) process. (awarding already picked TIFF Kid movies vs. selecting the movies to be in the PCFF) It was fun talking to people who love movies as much as we do and hearing what their favorite movies are. The jurors’ favorite non-TIFF movies include: The Hunger Games, WALL•E, Hugo, The Sting, Nancy Drew, The Harry Potter movies, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, John Hughes’ movies, and The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn. We definitely enjoyed interviewing the Young People’s Juries, and it was loads of fun.

At a ceremony held April 22, 2012 at TIFF Bell Lightbox, the award winners for the 15th annual TIFF Kids International Film Festival were announced. In addition to Audience Choice Awards, three Young People’s Juries weighed in on the recipients of the coveted Golden Sprocket Awards. Winners of the Jump Cuts Young Filmmakers Showcase were also announced, as determined by a jury of film industry professionals.

AND THE TIFF KIDS AWARDS GO TO…..

TIFF KIDS AUDIENCE CHOICE AWARDS
TIFF Kids Audience Choice Awards are voted on by Festival-goers who attended public screening weekends (April 14 to 15 and April 21 to 22).

TIFF Kids Audience Choice Award — Best Feature FilmCool Kids Don’t Cry (Achtste Groepers Huilen Niet), director: Dennis Bots, The Netherlands
Grade eight student Akkie has only two concerns: going to high school with her best friends and winning the soccer championship.
Tough-girl Akkie never backs down from a challenge or lets the class bully Joep target her friends. Her whole class is shocked when Akkie is diagnosed with leukemia, yet she faces the disease with unwavering courage. While on her class graduation trip she must rely on Joep, the one classmate who didn’t visit her in the hospital, to help her with a dilemma. Is this is the beginning of a new friendship? Akkie fears she won’t have time to find out. Based on the best-selling Benelux novel by Jacques Vriens, this film adaptation will leave viewers inspired by Akkie’s spirit and resolve in the face of adversity.

TIFF Kids Audience Choice Award — Best Short FilmJoanna Makes a Friend, director: Jeremy Lutter, Canada
Joanna likes to wear dark clothes and sketch spooky illustrations. As a result, the kids in Joanna’s class don’t like her, and she doesn’t much enjoy their company either. So, when her father tells her to “make a friend,” Joanna takes it a little too literally.

GOLDEN SPROCKET AWARDS
Two film juries representing different age groups — ages 8 to 10 and ages 11 to 13 — each selected a winning feature film. Another jury comprised of children aged 9 to 13 determined a winning short film.

Golden Sprocket Award — Feature FilmJury 1(Ages 8 to 10)Famous Five, director: Mike Marzuk , Germany
Three siblings, their cousin and a canine companion become summertime sleuths in this adaptation of the famed Enid Blyton novels.
On choosing this film, the jury said, “Famous Five is a great mystery that keeps you guessing and makes you feel like part of the adventure.”

Golden Sprocket Award — Feature FilmJury 2 (Ages 11 to 13)Nicostrados, the Pelican, director: Olivier Horlait, France/Belgium/Greece
Fourteen-year-old Yannis enjoys a simple life with his widowed fisherman father on the Greek island of Zora. That is, until he trades his mother’s golden cross for Nicostratos, a neglected white pelican. This charismatic, mischievous and gigantic bird becomes Yannis’ best friend, but he also becomes a major tourist attraction.

The Young People’s Jury explained their decision, “We are in awe of how this movie took us on a rollercoaster ride of emotions in such a beautiful setting, which was exquisitely captured in the film’s photography.”

Golden Sprocket Award — Short Film
Jury (Ages 9 to 13)The Little Team, directors: Roger Gomez and Daniel Resines, Spain
In this sweet and charming documentary, the fourteen little kids that make up the Margatania FC go over an unsolved football mystery, and they end up teaching an unexpected life lesson to grown-ups.

Said the Young People’s Jury of their unanimous decision, “We admire that this movie conveys messages of perseverance and inspiration that we can all learn from. And it is told from a great point of view.”

When 2011’s total box office total grosses were announced to be the lowest since 1995, high expectations were already being set for 2012. I was personally surprised about 2011, considering that the last Harry Potter installment, not one but four super hero films, Transformers 3, and two Steven Spielberg films were all released. But with Batman 3, a Spider-Man movie, the Avengers, and another Steven Spielberg movie all being released in 2012, excitement is starting to brew.

So far the box office is 24% higher at this than point last year. But not quite as high as 2009 and 2010 at this point. Coraline and Pink Panther 2 were released in early 2009 and Avatar was released in December 2009 and obviously carried over into early 2010. This year 3 movies have already passed the 100 million dollar mark. In order from least to greatest, they are: the action movie, Safe House ($116 million), the romance, The Vow ($118 million), and the family film, The Lorax ($129 million). Those movies also have the highest opening weekends, with $40 million, $41 million and $70 million. Also twenty movies have passed the 30 million mark. Still there have been a large number of commercial flops, such as, This Means War, The Woman in Black, The Grey, Red Tails, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, and so far John Carter.

Now let’s take a look at what other March blockbusters are coming up.

March 16, 2012: The Big Opening: 21 Jump Street. Why it will be big? Starring comedian and Oscar nominee, Jonah Hill. And with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%, it’s likely to become a semi-big commercial, crowd pleaser. Why it will not be big: It’s rated R, which means that younger audiences won’t go. Also others might not be old enough to remember the TV show. My box office predictions: Opening Weekend: $35 million, Domestic Total: $155 million, and International Total: $255 million. Other movies opening that week: Seeking Justice staring Nicolas Cage, Jeff who Lives at Home staring Jason Segel, and the Spanish film Casa de mi Padre starring Will Ferrel.

March 23, 2012: The Big Opening: The Hunger Games. Why: This is the biggest non-summer, non-holiday movie of the year. Comparisons to Twilight could give it a push…. or not. The first Twilight opened to 69 million dollars in it’s opening weekend, but this is likely to do better. It has a massive, massive, massive fan base and could get great reviews. Why not: It’s possible because not everyone is familiar with it, it might not do well. My box office predictions: Opening Weekend: $80 million, Domestic Total: $350 million, and International Total: $400 million. Other movies opening that week: The Raid: The Redemption, and Brake.

March 30, 2012: The Big Openings: Wrath of the Titans, and Mirror Mirror. Why? The first Titans movies was released to a $61 million weekend, suggesting this could very well possibly follow in its footsteps. The first Titans movie was badly reviewed, and got a 28% splat on Rotten Tomatoes. The 2 worst reviewed elements, however, are back: Sam Worthington and 3-D, but the first earned $300 million overseas, making this one a potential blockbuster. Also people now know that they didn’t like the first one so they might not return for a sequel. Meanwhile Mirror Mirror is the more family-friendly of the two Snow White movies, opening in 2012. It also stars Julia Roberts. But it’s not a summer movie, an action movie, or a Kristen Stewart movie, or even a movie with Thor in it, which the other one is all of those. My box office predictions for Wrath of the Titans: Opening Weekend: $40 million, Domestic Total: $200 million, International Total: $300 million. My Mirror Mirror box office predictions: Opening Weekend: $25 million, Domestic Total: $115 million, International Total: $170 million.

One last note, I wanted to point out is that all top 1o movies at the box office right now have a SPLAT on Rotten Tomatoes, which means they are badly reviewed. However I expect that to change for new movies coming out, particularly the first two ones I was just talking about Many people are saying that all this good box office will lead people into the Summer, however I hope that some of the Summer movies get good reviews. In December, I’m expecting The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey to be the big holiday movie and Lincoln (directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Daniel Day Lewis) to be the big Oscar movie and a potential blockbuster. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will probably be first or second place along with The Dark Knight Rises for the whole, entire year. The Amazing Spider-Man, Skyfall, and The Avengers will round out the top 5 for the year (not in order). More Summer movies preview for 2012 are coming soon.

Flick and Flack talk about their 2012 Oscar Predictions in Part 3 of a 3 part video series. In this video, Flick and Flack discuss the Best Picture category and give their predictions for this year’s Academy Awards.

Part 3 (28 minutes, 1 second)

Flack’s rankings of the Best Picture nominees from least likely to win to most likely to win.
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. The Tree of Life
7. War Horse
6. Moneyball
5. Midnight in Paris
4. The Descendants
3. The Help
2. Hugo
1. The Artist

Flack’s rankings of the Best Picture nominees from least favorite to most favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
8. Midnight in Paris
7. The Artist
6. The Tree of Life
5. Moneyball
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Hugo
2. The Help
1. War Horse

Flick’s rankings of the Best Picture nominees from least likely to win to most likely to win.
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. The Tree of Life
7. War Horse
6. Moneyball
5. Midnight in Paris
4. The Help
3. The Descendants
2. Hugo
1. The Artist

Flick’s rankings of the Best Picture nominees from least favorite to most favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
8. Moneyball
7. The Artist
6. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. Midnight in Paris
4. The Help
3. The Tree of Life
2. War Horse
1. Hugo