Sunday, March 1, 2009

Cruz worth the pick

Giving up a 2nd round pick in June's draft to get Juan Cruz may run contrary to a philosophy of building from within but it was also the right choice. The Royals track record in the 2nd round is spotty and just shows how much a gamble the draft really is. In the Royals history they have selected 43 players (counting compensation picks) in that round and though they have come away with some greatplayers they also have drafted a lot of trash.

You can toss out the last four picks as none have had time to develop but of the thirty-nine before that only eighteen have reached the majors. Beltran in 1995 was the last to have an impact and though Hamelin was a ROY you have to go back to 1981 with Gubicza to find another one. From there you go back to 1971 and 1972 with Brett and Leonard. Lieber was a good pick but was traded for Stan Belinda in 1993 so he never pitched an inning with KC.

So Cruz or a draft pick that may never reach KC? DM made the right decision.

5 comments:

While your result is sound, I'm not really sure the method is. One, if you're going to look at all 2nd rounders, limited not just to the ones Dayton Moore is responsible for, then why limit it just to Royal second rounders? He's just as responsible for non-Royal GMs as he is to previous Royal GMs. And you only used the 2nd round because that's what we're giving up, but you can do your method with any round and come up with the same result. Giving up a second rounder and/or depending on your likelihood for making the post season with the free agent you're signing, a first rounder to sign a Type A that monumentally improves the position he'll be filling is worth the gamble in all roles save for reliever. However, you can make the reliever worth the draft pick if you sign him to more than one year (exactly what Dayton did) or if you can later trade him for a prospect worth more than the draft pick, something Cruz is able to do though he's not needed for that purpose since he's cheap enough and the Royals are close enough for 2010 to be important.

Antonio - I was just trying to show that 2nd round picks are far from a sure thing using KC's entire history.And yeah I could have used any round for any team and came up with the same thing but this way was more relevant to the situation.

The high value of Dayton Moore's second round drafting though is neglected by expanding the field to include previous GMs failures. We really need Luis Castillo or someone like him to twist an ankle so Grudz can sign. If we can get that comp pick, we will be sitting very pretty.