Spread picks and scores for every NFL Week 6 game

As with every week, I’ll be giving a primer of all Week 6 games, as well as highlighting the key matchups. I’ll give you my picks and how confident I am in each, from a betting perspective. The confidence grade is on our patented -2 through +2 scale.

Basically, if I give my prediction a positive grade, I feel good about the bet. If it’s zero, I’m on the fence. And if it’s negative, I really don’t like the line either way. For the season, I’m 21-9 on positively-graded picks against the spread, and 23-22-2 on all others.

Redskins at Jets (-6)

I think it’s safe to say the Jets are the real deal. Washington’s Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is a work in progress. Cousins has the fourth-most throws in the league grading at -1.5 or below. The Jets seventh-overall graded secondary isn’t one that’s going to let him get away with mistakes. The Redskins have been below average in run defense this season, and I foresee RB Chris Ivory and company pounding it again and again.

Prediction: Jets 27, Redskins 17

Confidence Grade: +0.5

Cardinals (-3) at Steelers

The result here obviously hinges quite heavily on the health of Ben Roethlisberger, but he is a long shot at best after tearing his MCL in week 3 against the Rams. Without him, there really is no debate. The Cardinals boast our second-highest graded coverage unit, and the Michael Vick-led offense has been completely ineffective through the air.

Prediction: Cardinals 31, Steelers 14

Confidence Grade: +1

Chiefs at Vikings (-4)

The Chiefs looked defeated after Jamaal Charles went out for the season, and for good reason. Charles has been a more valuable key to their offense than Alex Smith for the previous two years. Without him, the onus to move the offense falls on Smith, our 25th overall graded quarterback this year. That is a scary proposition against the Vikings’ sixth-ranked pass rush.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Chiefs 17

Confidence Grade: -0.5

Bengals (-3) at Bills

I predicted the return of “bad Andy” last week, and he proved me very wrong with a +4.2 grade against the Seahawks. So, I’ll go ahead and say we see some regression from the red-hot pace Andy Dalton is on this week against the Bills sixth-graded coverage unit. LeSean McCoy is back, and if Tyrod Taylor can play mistake-free football, I think the Bills squeak by.

Prediction: Bills 20, Bengals 19

Confidence Grade: -0.5

Bears at Lions (-3)

The Lions offense is bad. That’s not something I thought I would say two months ago, and frankly, it’s not something I should be saying given the talent present on their roster. I broke down how poorly their offense has fit together this week, and even against a fairly mediocre Bears’ defense, I don’t see that changing. With DT Jay Ratliff back at full strength, Chicago should be able to get consistent pressure against Detroit’s 26th-ranked pass protection unit.

Prediction: Bears 24, Lions 23

Confidence Grade: 0

Broncos (-5) at Browns

DeMarcus Ware might be out, but the Broncos reload with a first-round pick (Shane Ray) and the highest graded preseason edge rusher (Shaquil Barrett). It seems like every week I say this about the Broncos’ opponent, but I don’t know how the Browns are going to move the ball on offense. The Broncos are on pace to obliterate the record for team pass rush grade in a season, and they just so happen to have the fourth-best run defense this year, as well. If they get anything close to the old Peyton Manning, this should be a cakewalk.

Prediction: Broncos 27, Browns 13

Confidence Grade: +1

Texans at Jaguars (pick ‘em)

I’m surprised the Jaguars aren’t getting much love at home. It’s difficult to say they’ve earned the right to be the favorite at 1-4, but QB Blake Bortles is playing significantly better than whomever Bill O’Brien decides to send into the huddle on Sunday. The second-year quarterback has a +0.9 passing grade for the season, and I think he proves to be the difference in this one.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Texans 21

Confidence Grade: 0

Dolphins at Titans (-3)

With the talent the Dolphins have, they should not be a 1-3 team. I wrote extensively about their issues a week ago, and while I don’t think they’ll solve them overnight, they should be much more motivated than they were against the Jets. With two weeks to prepare, I like Ryan Tannehill’s chances of outdueling Marcus Mariota.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Titans 21

Confidence Grade: +0.5

Panthers at Seahawks (-6.5)

Just given the records of both, this line seems high, but digging deeper, it’s fair to me. The Panthers are 4-0, but they’ve played teams with a combined record of 5-15. I don’t think the Panthers have the weapons on the outside to create separation on the Seahawks’ defenders, but I also don’t anticipate Russell Wilson having his best day against the ball hawks that the Panthers have. I think it stays a low-scoring game, and comes down to a field goal in the end.

Prediction: Seahawks 13, Panthers 10

Confidence Grade: 0

Chargers at Packers (-10)

The Chargers are playing some ugly, ugly football at the moment. They can’t run the ball, and they can’t stop the run. That’s completely demoralizing to a team. Green Bay has a much-improved run defense to go along with our fourth-ranked coverage unit to date. If the Packers can shut down the only thing the Chargers have going for them (Philip Rivers), then it could end up in a blowout.

Prediction: Packers 35, Chargers 17

Confidence Grade: +1

Ravens (-2.5) at 49ers

Oh, how far both teams have fallen since Super Bowl XLVII. Ironically, neither offense seems to be able to move the ball through the air this year, when both put up huge passing grades in that Super Bowl. With the pass offenses a wash, I’ll side with Baltimore’s second-ranked run blocking unit against San Francisco’s 20th-ranked run defense.

Prediction: Ravens 20, 49ers 17

Confidence Grade: -1

Patriots (-7.5) at Colts

This game has been circled on a lot of calendars, and you can bet that one of them is Tom Brady’s. If Andrew Luck is hampered by his shoulder in any way, there is little chance that the Colts have the firepower to keep up. The Patriots’ offense is a steamroller right now, and the Colts’ defense does not possess the necessary tools to stop it. Indy doesn’t rank in the top 10 in run defense, coverage, or pass rush.

Prediction: Patriots 41, Colts 23

Confidence Grade: +0.5

Giants at Eagles (-4)

Is the Eagles offense back? I’m not buying it yet, as the Saints defense will make a lot of teams look good this year. The one matchup that is worrisome for the Giants is their linebackers, especially Uani’ Unga, being forced to play in space on the Eagles’ running backs. I don’t see the Eagles’ receivers winning on the edge, though, against cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who is quietly having a fantastic season. On offense, the Giants have been able to move the ball on everyone they’ve faced this season, scoring 20+ points in all five games. The Giants guard-center-guard trio all rank in the top 10 at their positions, and should be able to at least contain the strong Eagles’ interiors.

Mike is a Senior Analyst at Pro Football Focus. His work has also been featured on The Washington Post, ESPN Insider, and 120 Sports. Follow @PFF_Mike

walker8084

Anything can happen, but It really seems like the Vikes should be a 7-8 point favorite at home over an inferior team that just lost its best offensive player.

https://twitter.com/MALACHiOFCOURSE Malachi

KC’s D still matches up quite well against MIN’s offense, but 4 points is surprisingly low and it’s actually 3 1/2 at most casinos here in vegas

walker8084

yeah, but 3 1/2 is basically saying that if these 2 teams met on a neutral field it would be a pickem. The Vikings obviously aren’t juggernauts, and KC has excellent pass rushers, but even on a neutral field I would think the Vikes would be favored by 3 or 4. I rarely bet, but I love this pick.

https://twitter.com/MALACHiOFCOURSE Malachi

feel ya

evo34

Michael, What’s your source for lines? When this was written (~9am ET on Friday), the Dolphins were nowhere near +3 anywhere [they were +1 to +1.5]. Similarly, the Broncos haven’t been -5 anywhere since Monday [they were -4]. It certainly doesn’t look intentional, but the vast majority of the lines posted here are out of date by a significant amount (compared to the major sportsbooks here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/).

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zyrun jackson

evo I’m trying to win a 18 pick parlay all the teams in the NFL minus The game already played. Plus some college options . what would you say would be an at least 56-65% chance with the remaining teams.
Covering the spread ofcourse

An 18 pick parlay? lmao….even Football Baby would steer clear of that.

zyrun jackson

I know a guy who hit one, a mix of college and nfl and he hit it big. The closest I’ve cam was about 12 right picking against the spread on a couple of sure bets. I was greedy and I remain a bit greedy because winning 1 k isn’t what I’m after but maybe I need to chop down that cherry tree a bit in order to get to the goal

crosseyedlemon

Last week Mike Renner and I both jumped on the gift the sportsbooks provided when they made the Cardinals a small favorite vs Detroit. This week the books haven’t made an obvious mistake like that. I see Mike is going to stick with a hot hand and play the Cardinals again but I think the 17 margin he expects is too high this time. The Lions shouldn’t be favored against a CFL team so I’ll go against them again this week although I’m less confident than last week with the pick.

Gerry

I disagree with people saying the bills have a chance this week…Bengals will roll on the road 35-21

Josh Knepshield

You were saying PFF? When is everyone going to admit that the Steelers defense is playing at quite a high level?

Runner1967

PFF = cant predict a damn thing.

Sam Drinkuth

Why do they automatically expect the Bengals to have a let down every week… HATERS