NORTH KOREANS REPORTED CLOSER TO A MISSILE TEST

By HELENE COOPER and MICHAEL R. GORDON; David E. Sanger contributed reporting for this article.

Published: June 19, 2006

North Korea appears to have completed fueling a long-range ballistic missile, American officials said Sunday, a move that greatly increases the probability that it will go ahead with its first important test launching in eight years.

A senior American official said that intelligence from satellite photographs suggested that booster rockets had been loaded onto a launching pad, and liquid-fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site on North Korea's remote east coast.

While there have been steady reports in recent days about preparations for a test, fueling is regarded as a critical step as well as a probable bellwether of North Korea's intentions. Siphoning the liquid fuel out of a missile is a complex undertaking.

''Yes, looks like all systems are 'go' and fueling appears to be done,'' said the official who discussed the matter only after being promised anonymity because he was addressing delicate diplomatic and intelligence issues. A second senior official, who declined to speak on the record for similar reasons, also indicated that the United States believed the missile had been fueled.

A launching would be a milestone in the North's missile capacity and effectively scrap a moratorium on such tests declared by the North Koreans after their last test in 1998. Moreover, a launching would have enormous importance for American security because it would be North Korea's first flight test of a new long-range missile that might eventually have the capacity to strike the United States.

A launching could also ignite a political chain reaction in Japan, the United States and China, which have been trying to re-engage North Korea in stalled talks about its nuclear weapons program. The Bush administration might step up financing for missile defense; Japan might increase its missile defense efforts as well, while militant Japanese politicians might push to reconsider the nation's nuclear weapons options. Such moves would most likely alienate China.

The reported fueling of the missile has set off a flurry of diplomatic activity, as officials from the United States, Japan and China worked furiously to try to forestall a launching. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke to her Japanese and Chinese counterparts this weekend, urging the Chinese, in particular, to try to press North Korea. Officials at the State Department recently telephoned North Korean diplomats at that country's permanent mission to the United Nations in New York, warning them directly against going ahead with a launching. Such direct contact is highly unusual, since American officials limit their direct talks with their North Korean counterparts. But ''we needed to make sure there was no misunderstanding,'' a senior American official said.

American intelligence officials say they believe that the system is a Taepodong 2 missile and that a three-stage version could strike all of the United States. One administration official said the missile at the launching pad was a two-stage version.

While North Korea claims to have developed nuclear weapons, it has never allowed outsiders to see them. American experts believe that North Korea has enough plutonium for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons and has produced a small but growing nuclear arsenal. It is not known if the North Koreans can build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile, but experts say it seems plausible that they could do so.

''Assuming the missile is a Taepodong 2 and assuming the missile test is successful, North Korea would demonstrate that they have made important progress toward the ability to hit targets in the continental United States with a missile large enough to carry a nuclear weapon,'' said Gary Samore, a former senior aide on the National Security Council and a vice president of the MacArthur Foundation.

It remained unclear late on Sunday how long North Korea might wait before launching a fueled missile, what the diplomatic prospects were for averting a launching, or what the missile's intended landing spot or projected range might be.

In Japan, Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned that a miscalculation could result in the missile landing on Japanese territory. ''If it is dropped on Japan, it will complicate the story,'' he told Japanese TV on Sunday. ''It will be regarded as an attack.'' Mr. Aso later toned down his language, saying, ''We will not right away view it as a military act,'' but adding that Japan would seek an immediate meeting of the Security Council if the missile were launched.

In its last test of a long-range missile, in 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong 1 missile over Japan -- a launching that the Clinton administration had warned against to no avail. American intelligence was surprised to learn when the missile was launched that it had three stages, although the solid-fueled third stage exploded in flight. That led Congress to step up its push for deployment of antimissile defenses. In 1999, North Korea agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile testing, and has not fired one since.