How California GOP improbably won

The start of the college football season is right around the corner, and every year we go through the same early-season ritual: Big-name, big-conference schools showcase their athletes in packed stadiums by obliterating helpless teams from universities that have a lower name I.D. than DeVry. It seems bizarre, but everyone likes it – the big boys snag an easy victory, and the poor sap schools get to make it on “SportsCenter.”

We do the same thing with elections in California. Democrats pound Republicans in election cycle after election cycle and maintain control of every facet of state government. In return, losing Republicans have something to complain about on talk radio.

And then, hell froze over.

A Republican actually won, in a heavily Democratic district.

The Republican is Hanford cherry farmer Andy Vidak, who defeated Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez of Bakersfield, 52 percent to 48 percent, in a state Senate special election to replace Democrat Michael Rubio, who resigned in February to take a job with Chevron.

Andy Vidak didn't have to go uphill to win; he had to go up Mount Everest, carrying more baggage than a truck driver for Louis Vuitton.

Democrats enjoy a 22-point registration advantage (50-28) in the Fresno-based 16th Senate District, and Latinos are 60 percent of the district's residents. The district also has a long history of voting for Democrats: President Obama easily carried it in 2008 and 2012, as have Gov. Jerry Brown and U.S. Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Rubio got 61 percent in his 2010 election.

How did the Democrats lose? There are four main reasons:

The Republicans did everything right. Andy Vidak is a Republican who fits the district. The farmer and small-businessman told the Washington Times, “I ran on jobs, affordable energy and water, opposition to the $100 billion ‘bullet train' federal boondoggle that Leticia supported for union jobs – and on common sense, which has no party lines.”

In addition, California Republican Party Chairman Jim Brulte put all of his chips on Vidak's race, knowing that, without this seat, Republicans would have no chance of preventing the Democrats from maintaining their two-thirds legislative majority in the 2014 elections. Brulte had Republicans from all over the state in the Central Valley, campaigning on behalf of Vidak.

The Democrats did everything wrong. Democrats had no obvious candidate. Because of this, Sacramento party bosses decided to clear the field for Perez, despite the fact that no one in the district knew who she was. They assumed that because she was the Democrat and would have all of the union money that goes along with it, there was no way she could lose.

Whoops!

Even before the election, Kern County Democratic Party Chairwoman Candi Easter knew the election was going to be tight. She told the Bakersfield Californian, “If we lose this race, we lost it because of Democrats. We lost it because prominent Democrats didn't get engaged. We lost it because Democratic voters didn't vote.”

Big donors got behind Vidak. The political blog Fox and Hounds Daily reports that the California Realtors Association and the Democratic Senate leadership got in a nasty fight over a piece of legislation. As a result the Realtors dropped an $840,000 independent expenditure into the district, complete with TV ads, direct mail and precinct walkers who campaigned against Perez and for Vidak.

If that's not enough, from January to June, Charles Munger Jr., son of Warren Buffett's partner, Charles T. Munger, spent $1.5 million given mostly to the Tulare and Fresno County GOP, to boost Vidak.

Special elections produce low turnout. There was no presidential or statewide election to motivate Democrats to go to the polls. Low-turnout elections always favor Republicans.

The moral of the story for California Republicans is this: If you run a perfect campaign and catch every break, you can still win! If that doesn't happen, you can always call me on the radio weekday mornings at 9.