NOAA today announced to America and its neighbors throughout the north Atlantic region that a very active hurricane season is looming, and encouraged individuals to make preparations to better protect their lives and livelihoods.

...snip

"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered "major," of which a record four hit the United States. "Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the U.S. is high," added Lautenbacher.

Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.

This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002.

Today's Discussion
A Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend
Posted: 9-JUN-2006 10:40pm EDT

By meteorologist Chuck Caracozza

We continue to closely monitor surface and satellite observations over the northwest Caribbean. Surface data Friday night shows a possible low pressure center near 17 north and 86 west. Surface pressures are down to at least 1005 millibars northeast of the center with winds of 20-25 mph. becoming better organized. The National Hurricane Center has tasked an air plane to investigate this area tomorrow. However, given the way pressures are continuing to fall, we will have a tropical depression in the next 24 hours and we could have the first tropical storm of the season develop by the second half of the weekend. The first name on the list is Alberto. So, residence and visitors to the Yucatan, Belize, western Cuba and islands of the northwest Caribbean should keep a close watch on this system. Water temperatures are very warm in this area and a developing system could intensify very quickly. Our current thinking is that this system will track north or northwest and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow night and Sunday morning. As stated the past couple of days if this system heads north it will encounter shear which will make the tops of the thunderstorms around the system flow off to the northeast. Shear will cause the system to become tilted northeast to southwest and that will limit how strong it can get. In fact if the shear is strong enough it could cause the system to weaken once it moves well north of the Yucatan later Sunday and Sunday night. Computer models show a wide range in solutions as far as movement. But a general consensus takes the system north then northeast toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. How strong it is at that point is tough to say. But we could be dealing with a strong tropical storm heading toward western or northwest Florida on Monday. Water temperatures are cooler off the coast of western and northwest Florida. Those cooler waters combined with the stronger winds aloft could cause the whole system to become elongated causing it to weaken. But this is mostly speculation and there is a lot of uncertainty about this system. So, residents of the northern and eastern Gulf should also monitor the progress of this system. Even if the system weakens it will bring rainfall to Florida by Monday and over parts of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday of next week. ..........etc..................

well... it's out there... TD#1... in the northwestern Caribbean... with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph and gusts of 46, it will probably strengthen more today and become the Atlantic Basin hurricane season's first named tropical storm...

Alberto.

The projected track shows it crossing Florida and then moving northward up the eastern coast until it's demise... they predict that this will be a major rain maker...

not only has TD#1 become Alberto but he's on the verge of becoming a Category 1 hurricane...

but even so, he is now a strong Tropical Storm and he seems to be headed for the shallow waters of the florida uhhhh, armpit... which will mean... storm surge... maybe as high as 10 feet... and when combined with all that rain... extensive flooding is possible...

although this entity doesn't have what it takes to be tropical, look at this and tell me if you think that this thing might adversely impact those areas hard hit this week with more of the same... it's the spiral system dead center in this water vapor loop...

I'm no expert but it is plain to see it is being well fed and obviously cyclical and as it moves across the Gulf Stream it will certainly intensify like a bat out of hell. At least that is the way I see it and barometric pressure is dropping off of Myrtle Beach and the coast of the Carolina's. If I was a gambler I'd bet this one will become #2 what cat is still open for me. Mucho potential!!!! And upon second look there are three very close low pressure systems looks like the over land is going to become a feeder and the one in the north could possibly turn down or the southeasterly forming storm be pulled up the coast following the Stream. At any rate it shall be interesting to follow for the novice.

Thanx for the tip Cat, Bengali that is!!!!!

TUT

_________________Look out kid, They keep it all hid.”
Bob Dylan “Subterranean Homesick Blues”

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The low pressure area that produced locally heavy rains and strong
gusty winds across portions of New England today has merged with a
frontal system and is moving over the Canadian maritime provinces.
A vigorous tropical wave interacting with a large upper-level
trough is producing widespread cloudiness...showers and a few
thunderstorms over much of the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea and
the Lesser Antilles... and continuing eastward over the Atlantic
Ocean for a few hundred miles. Shower activity has increased and
become a little better organized today... and wind gusts to 36 mph
have been reported on St. Lucia. Unfavorable upper-level winds are
expected to inhibit development during the next couple of days as
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. However...
brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds...
possibly to tropical storm force over higher elevations... can be
expected across most of the Lesser Antilles tonight... and over
the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...and the Dominican Republic on
Thursday.
A surface trough interacting with a large upper-level low is
producing a broad and disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms about midway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico.
Significant development of this system is not expected as it
moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

There's a big High out in the Atlantic that I think it will revolve around... if it keeps it's tropical roots and moisture feed intact, I think it might become problematic for 4th of July revelry... but what do I know? I'm just a tiger...

All Quiet on the Eastern Front errrrr... Coast... the west coast however, is anything but quiet with two... yes two hurricanes in the eastern pacific busily churning their way toward nothing in particular... except for Hawaii... but thankfully, they are not likely to affect that region... your vacation is safe...

But your weather tiger is monitoring the situation and will update you in the event something untoward happens...

I watch the Weather Channel... love it... it's WAY better than the news channels as there is NO politics, other than the occasional discussion of Global Warming... which as we all know, thanks to bush and his apologists like shane7, doesn't actually exist...