Dollar Swiss Makes Fresh 8-Week Low

Breaking above the 38.2% retracement of 1.0760-1.2927, the next level of resistance in the EURUSD is 1.2180/1.2200, the May 5 & April 8 highs / upper Bollinger and 38.2% retracement of 1.2927-1.1758. A close above that level is still needed to confirm the resumption of the uptrend for a move towards the April 1 high at 1.2387 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.2480. Bulls will look to buy on dips to 1.2075, the May 26 low / May 21 high and former trend line resistance. A break below 1.1930-55, the 200-day EMA / May 18, 19 & 24 low / trend line support and 38.2% fibo from 1.2182-1.1770 would mark a failed attempt to break the top of the range, which makes the pair vulnerable for a move towards the 1.1893 May 20 low. Wednesday's attempted rally in USDJPY failed right at the 20-day SMA, as the hourly stochastics shook off overbought conditions. With the 114.85 interim top and break of the 7-week uptrend line support, bears will look to sell on rallies towards today's high and the 20-day SMA at 112.20. Oversold daily stochastics will attract buy on dip players to 110.50, the March 3 & May 4 high and 38.2% retracement of 103.40-114.90. A close below 110.50 would negate the overall bullish trend and offer bears the opportunity to target 108 the 100-day SMA and 61.8% fibo of 103.40-114.90. Today's price action in the GBPUSD confirms the recovery of the head and shoulders neckline and the reversal of the pair's recent downtrend. The next level of resistance is 1.8295, the 50% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. Support is at 1.8100, the May 26 low and 38.2% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. Despite overbought stochastics on both the daily and hourlies, intraday dips should be viewed as corrective and give bulls the opportunity to initiate longs at more attractive levels. The target for the rally is the right shoulder at 1.8500-1.8600. The 1.8000/20 breakout level and former head and shoulders neckline is now near-term support. However, a failure below the moving average confluence and May 24 low at 1.7820 would be needed to threaten the recovery and expose the pair for a test of the 200-day EMA at 1.7595. A new 8-week low in USDCHF and break of the May 5 & 17 low / 50% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226 and 100-day SMA confirms near term bearish momentum and exposes 1.2555, the 61.8% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226. With daily and hourly stochastics oversold, bulls may be able to take advantage of a corrective rally at those levels. Bears will continue to look to sell on rallies towards the 10-day SMA at 1.2785.

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