This thing at $299 down plus $6.95 a month, versus the cable DVR at $0 down and 11.95 a month. Break-even is at about 70 months. This thing won't last 6 years, so there must be some value added for the increased price over the cable DVR.

Estimate it lasts for 3 years. Present value of 36 monthly payments of $6.95 (assuming 5% interest) is $231.89. Plus $299 box fee makes the present value to own and use for 36 months to be $530.89. Present value of 36 monthly payments of $11.95 is $398.72. Difference is $132.17, or $3.96 a month. Plus the cost of cablecards. That's the cost of the TiVo service. Worth it?

In my case the DVR is only $4.95/month (if I sub to HBO or SHO which I HAVE to do in order to get HBO-HD and/or SHO-HD), and no monthly rental box fee.

Well, until TiVo starts offering some blow-out prices (speculation) to clear their inventory maybe before the holidays.

I'd be surprised if there were a lot of S3 inventory lying around. If they've known this box was coming for 14 months, there won't be many S3s in the production pipeline for Q3 and Q4, and they've already had a big sale (i.e., the rebate offer). And they've been dumping the refurbs on the web site with a nice offer, which probably indicates they are pretty low on inventory.

Branding. The unit is still a Series3 - even has the logo on the lower front panel. But 'TiVo HD' is definitely a catchier brand for marketing. It tells you right in the name what it is - TiVo in HD. 'Series3' doesn't do that - only people who already know TiVo nomenclature know S3 means HD.

But HDTiVo is soooo much smoother.

Quote:

Originally Posted by megazone

Time and economies of scale.

Component prices *always* drop with time. So they may not replace the S2DT this year, maybe early next year. But at some point the cost of the components will decline enough to make it worth while to garner the cost savings of eliminating the older design.

On top of that you get economies of scale. Building 100 each of two designs generally costs more than building 200 of one design. You can buy larger quantities of components and get better discounts. You get more efficiencies from the production lines.

The thing about time is that it also erodes your price point, so sometimes you are gaining and sometimes you may be not gaining much.

I agree about economies of scale; the thing I need to get past is that this TiVo HD is chock full of stuff, so how do you get econ of scale to overcome all that silicon goodness and/or how do you change the parts w/o ruining econ of scale. Then how do you make that cheaper overall than a specific bare bones cost reduced S2 only re-design.

I agree about economies of scale; the thing I need to get past is that this TiVo HD is chock full of stuff, so how do you get econ of scale to overcome all that silicon goodness and/or how do you change the parts w/o ruining econ of scale. Then how do you make that cheaper overall than a specific bare bones cost reduced S2 only re-design.

Compare it to the S2DT - is it really that much more? The S2DT has two Broadcom encoders, the same models use in the S3. TiVo told me they didn't use those because the system in the HD costs less - both the chips and the space savings on the board. There really isn't a lot of extra stuff in the TiVo HD - add the analog inputs and it would basically be a 180-hr S2DT with CableCARD support.

And with an increasing number of cable systems going digital, that may become a key factor too.

Once the TiVo OCAP software rolls out - that could eat their low-end a bit.

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Compare it to the S2DT - is it really that much more? The S2DT has two Broadcom encoders, the same models use in the S3. TiVo told me they didn't use those because the system in the HD costs less - both the chips and the space savings on the board. There really isn't a lot of extra stuff in the TiVo HD - add the analog inputs and it would basically be a 180-hr S2DT with CableCARD support.

And with an increasing number of cable systems going digital, that may become a key factor too.

Once the TiVo OCAP software rolls out - that could eat their low-end a bit.

Would you still use the 7401? How much RAM? What tuners? The transcoder chip? etc...

What features would this have? HDMI out? Record SD (incl. digital cable) only? HD size?

Would you still use the 7401? How much RAM? What tuners? The transcoder chip? etc...

What features would this have? HDMI out? Record SD (incl. digital cable) only? HD size?

Same as the TiVo HD PLUS analog input. Just as each generation of box that has replaced the previous generation has tended to be better, faster, and do more. I could see TiVo moving to all-HD boxes, retiring the S2DT completely.

It may sound like a big jump - but keep in mind the S1 had models that sold for a grand - and didn't compare at all to the $300 TiVo HD. The S2DT is only less expensive than the HD due to the rebate.

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That is really a shame. I think they would sell a LOT of TIVOHD boxes to old Series 1 users.

There wouldn't be TIVO without those folks who ponied up $499 for 14 hours or $999 for 30 hours. Geez, throw a bone to the long-time members of the TIVOlution

They did throw us a bone when they let us transfer our lifetime S1 to the S3. Once the S3 price came down a little from the original $800, I jumped at it. Sure, the new TivoHD unit is cheaper, buy I'm happy they gave me the chance to switch. And my S1 is still chugging away recording stuff for the kids under the "free" year of service they gave me for the switch.

TiVo has given numerous opportunities to switch a lifetime S1 to a newer box, both with the S2 and with the S3. Just because you didn't take advantage of it at the time doesn't mean they should do it again. Remember that TiVo isn't generating any money on your lifetime subscription. Letting you extend that to a new box doesn't generate any new revenue for them either.

Last edited by dbenrosen : 07-25-2007 at 02:15 PM.
Reason: typo in TiVoHD name

TiVo has given numerous opportunities to switch a lifetime S1 to a newer box, both with the S2 and with the S3. Just because you didn't take advantage of it at the time doesn't mean they should do it again. Remember that TiVo isn't generating any money on your lifetime subscription. Letting you extend that to a new box doesn't generate any new revenue for them either.

But it would make me more likely to buy a new TiVo HD, which is more money than they'll get from me if I don't. I didn't take advantage of the chance to transfer my lifetime subscription from my S1 to an S2 because the S2 was crippled (no OTA recording) and therefore useless to me, and I didn't bite for a transfer to the S3 because that box was overconfigured and overpriced. I understand and agree that TiVo doesn't owe me a transfer, but it would be both courteous and an arguably good business decision to give me the same chance others have had, now that they have a replacement for my S1 that actually meets my requirements.

TiVo has given numerous opportunities to switch a lifetime S1 to a newer box, both with the S2 and with the S3.

Several. For me, none of the offers were compelling enough (S2 too limited, S3 too expensive). It was my choice, I agree...

Quote:

Remember that TiVo isn't generating any money on your lifetime subscription. Letting you extend that to a new box doesn't generate any new revenue for them either.

I don't see how you can say they don't generate money on a PAID Lifetime transfer. They make money on the box and on the $199 lifetime transfer. It actually REDUCES their cost to service my sub, since service data now comes over the Internet and not expensive dialup modem pool. So TIVO gets a profit on the hardware, reduces their service cost, and gets $199 to spread over 4 years. Sounds like a win for TiVo and a win for Series 1 users.

They certainly will not make as much as if I signed up for a 3 year contract, but I am not willing to pay through the nose per month when I get HD recording and multiple SD recorders (all using TIVO technology) from DirecTV for free each month (whichs nets TIVO a cool $1 per month).

agree that TiVo doesn't owe me a transfer, but it would be both courteous and an arguably good business decision to give me the same chance others have had, now that they have a replacement for my S1 that actually meets my requirements.

You're just one guy. What matters is how many current lifetime subscribers will still buy a new TiVo HD while keeping lifetime on their aging S1s and S2s. They could readily trump you.

Or they might not. I think you overestimate the number of people who want two or more TiVos around the house. (The folks who populate this forum and boast about their TiVo farms are not exactly representative of the market, or the installed base.) When I heard about this new model, I thought briefly about keeping the S1 and taking advantage of the MSD to get cheaper monthly service for the HD... but what would I actually do with the S1? I'd have little use for it, and even less after analog OTA goes dark. I'd rather sell it to some poor satellite or analog cable subscriber, and it's in TiVo Inc's interest for it to have the lifetime service removed from it (i.e. transferred to my hypothetical new TiVo HD) before I do that, so it can snag them a new monthly subscriber, rather than continuing to be a no-income albatross for them to support.

I should add that charging me $199 to transfer my lifetime service wouldn't feel a whole lot different to me than charging me $199 for lifetime service in the first place. That wouldn't be a "transfer"; it'd be an offer to again sell me lifetime service, on a new box, at the original price. Still a kind gesture of appreciation to an early supporter, but not exactly a bank-breaking sacrifice on their part.

Or they might not. I think you overestimate the number of people who want two or more TiVos around the house.

Well, time will tell. I'm pretty sure that you're wrong about that. The people who put out the big bucks for lifetime in the first place are often those who are so committed to TiVo to be happy to have two or more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TVerBeek

(The folks who populate this forum and boast about their TiVo farms are not exactly representative of the market, or the installed base.)

Neither are lifetime subscribers. I'm not even sure which group would have a greater percentage of enthusiasts -- the membership of this website, or lifetime subscribers -- but both would almost surely have a far greater percentage of enthusiasts than the market or the installed base.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TVerBeek

I should add that charging me $199 to transfer my lifetime service wouldn't feel a whole lot different to me than charging me $199 for lifetime service in the first place. That wouldn't be a "transfer"; it'd be an offer to again sell me lifetime service, on a new box, at the original price. Still a kind gesture of appreciation to an early supporter, but not exactly a bank-breaking sacrifice on their part.

I think you perhaps don't really know whether or not it would be a sacrifice on their part or not.

I noted your join date to this forum was in December 1999. If you bought your Series 1 at that time (I think before January 27, 2000), you should be grandfathered in to one free transfer of your lifetime subscription. Do a search on this site for the code that you should reference when talking to the Tivo rep.

I noted your join date to this forum was in December 1999. If you bought your Series 1 at that time (I think before January 27, 2000), you should be grandfathered in to one free transfer of your lifetime subscription. Do a search on this site for the code that you should reference when talking to the Tivo rep.

I went monthly for a few months before I went lifetime (box prices of $499 were a killer back then). So I don't think I am technically eligible for the transfer.

Well, time will tell. I'm pretty sure that you're wrong about that. The people who put out the big bucks for lifetime in the first place are often those who are so committed to TiVo to be happy to have two or more.

Hi, there. I'd like to introduce myself. I paid for lifetime service way back when because it was a blindingly obvious better deal than month-to-month, and I have no interest in owning two or more TiVos. You now have a data set of two rather than just your own subjective viewpoint.

Quote:

I think you perhaps don't really know whether or not it would be a sacrifice on their part or not.

Actually, bicker's been around here and involved in discussions about lifetime and Tivo's business for a long time, so he does have a bit of an idea of what he's talking about. You may have to challenge that narrow worldview of yours and accept the fact that someone may know something that you don't.

Tearing someone else down generally isn't the best way to build yourself up, "dude".

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Actually, bicker's been around here and involved in discussions about lifetime and Tivo's business for a long time

Hanging around here and chatting with other fanatics doesn't give one much perspective on the rest of the market, which is what he imagines himself to be a mind-reading expert on. I'm not here to earn points, or find same-thinking friends, so I don't mind challenging him on that.

Hanging around here and chatting with other fanatics doesn't give one much perspective on the rest of the market, which is what he imagines himself to be a mind-reading expert on. I'm not here to earn points, or find same-thinking friends, so I don't mind challenging him on that.

Hanging around here and chatting with other fanatics doesn't give one much perspective on the rest of the market, which is what he imagines himself to be a mind-reading expert on. I'm not here to earn points, or find same-thinking friends, so I don't mind challenging him on that.

I had a poll in coffeehouse on who was waiting on lifetime transfer to buy a TiVoHD. The people in the forum who responded and wanted to buy a TiVo HD overwhelmingly said they would wait for a lifetime transfer.

however I also see a lot of new faces and ids in the forums, clearly indicating the TiVop HD has generated a large amount of interest. If this translates into the TiVo HD selling well then TiVo really has no marketing incentive to offer the transfer at any price. the only value left is to move more people off of S1 lifetimes, which doers not seem to be enough in itself yet. I also wonder if TiVo is leaving the lifetime transfer as an advantage for buying the higher priced original S3 HD model

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