6/17/2011 @ 6:00AM

China's Power Shuffle Clouds Hong Kong's Future

Beijing’s relationship with Hong Kong is a clash of political cultures. Since the handover in 1997, the opaque and authoritarian ways of the Chinese Politburo have often been at odds with the well-educated and internationally-oriented expectations of a large swath of Hong Kong’s 7 million residents. The responsibility for mediating that divide largely falls on the shoulders of one person, Hong Kong’s chief executive.

So far, there has only been two. The first, Tung Chee Hwa, stepped down early due to health reasons after half a million people joined in protests against the introduction of national security laws and a slew of other grievances against his administration in 2003. The second chief executive, Donald Tsang, managed to avoid the same fate by avoiding the same missteps during a shortened tenure in office that concludes early next year.

Although Hong Kong was promised universal suffrage in the Basic Law, the city’s mini-constitution, almost 14 years later the chief executive is still selected through a small-circle election of 1,200 voters, mostly made up of politicians and businesspeople with close ties to the mainland. Although it’s called an election, the actual winner is pre-determined in Zhongnanhai well before the ballots are actually distributed.

This time, however, China’s top leaders are preoccupied with their own upcoming leadership reshuffle, ahead of the Communist Party’s 18th National Congress. But most observers agree that the leadership in Beijing will certainly factor public opinion into their deliberations to avoid a repeat of the uproar that afflicted Tung’s tenure.

According to a November poll conducted by local think tank Hong Kong Transition Project (HKTP), Beijing loyalist Rita Fan was supported by 60% of the survey’s 807 respondents to become the next chief executive. The Chief Secretary for Administration Henry Tang placed second with 53%. Pro-democracy politician Alan Leong was third with 45%, whereas Executive Council convenor Leung Chun-ying could only garner 37%.

The wild card in the selection process this time may turn out to be the internal power politics currently playing out within the Party. Chinese media say Rita Fan and Henry Tang, the two frontrunners by almost all accounts, derive their support from different political bases.

The Party itself is believed to be roughly divided between two almost equally powerful coalitions, according to Political analyst Cheng Li of Washington D.C. based Brookings Institution. The Populist Coalition is headed by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, and they tend to focus on social problems like poverty and migration. The core faction of the Populists, namely the Tuanpai, consists of a large contingent of Hu’s comrades from his power base–the Communist Youth League. This faction also includes Party functionaries and rural leaders.

The Elitists Coalition, on the other hand, is made up of the Shanghai Mafia, princelings (children of high-ranking officials), entrepreneurs, capitalists and urban leaders from the coastal region. They advocate promoting China’s rapid economic growth. Former President Jiang Zemin leads this faction.

Hong Kong’s Next Magazine says Fan, 66, is supported by the Populists through her close ties to State Councilor Liu Yangond, a key figure in the Tuanpai. She formerly served as the president of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council (LegCo), and currently she’s a member of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress.

Fan won respect from many Hongkongers for the fairness she demonstrated during her tenure in LegCo, a particularly strong asset to have at this time, according to Michael DeGolyer, director of the HKTP. There is a deep sense that Hong Kong’s policies are being unfairly made to favor the rich and powerful at the expense of the poor and the middle class.

Moreover, Fan’s age would most likely preclude her from seeking two terms (ten years), DeGolyer adds. The first time the chief executive will be directly elected through universal suffrage in 2017, which means she can help to set the rules without having a vested interest as a participant herself.

These two facts help to support Fan’s candidacy. “She is not the ideal chief executive for all circumstances, but for our particular circumstances between 2012 and 2017, she fits the different issues about the best,” DeGolyer explains.

On the other side of the coin, Tang’s support in the Party comes from the Elitist Coalition. The son of the textile tycoon Tang Hsiang Chien rooted in Jiangsu’s Wuxi city, Tang’s political life has been helped by his family’s affiliation with the Party, namely the Shanghai Clique. Tang senior was ranked No. 40 on the Forbes Rich list in 2010 but failed the make the cut in this year.

The Chief Secretary’s support within the Party is hindered by his lack of political sophistication. A number of ill-judged statements have dragged down his popularity and diminished trust from Beijing. His most recent blunder was to recommend to young Hongkongers to ask themselves why they can’t be the next Li Ka-shing, rather than simply complaining about the lack of opportunities, which is ironic considering that Tang himself comes from a wealthy family.

“With Henry Tang, we almost certainly have problems because he’s got wrong attitude and wrong policies,” says DeGolyer. “If he came out on top, Beijing would have some concerns about him, they probably have more people watching him more closely.”

Unlike Fan’s and Tang’s strong connections in Beijing, Leung is seen as an independent. A “true believer,” DeGolyer calls him. His views share the same commitment to the original ideals of China, in the Peoples Republic sense, but with a bit of a twist. Hong Kong’s tycoons do not trust Leung, even though he is wealthy, because they fear he will try to adopt socialist policies, says DeGolyer.

Alan Leong, not to be confused with C.Y. Leung, generated a great deal of publicity and political capital for himself and the Civic Party when he ran against Tsang in 2007, but most observers say Beijing would never support the selection of a pro-democracy politician–and that might actually be the key issue here.

Whether the leadership in Beijing breaks their promise of universal suffrage and curtails the political rights and freedoms promised to 7 million people may be one of the clearest indications of its intentions as the world’s next superpower on the global stage.