"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross."
-- Sinclair Lewis

Friday, July 08, 2016

Rubio Has One Path To Reelection: Patrick Murphy

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Marco Rubio realized he wasn't going to be the Republican presidential nominee when he started seeing the polls from his home state, polls that showed him losing badly to Trumpy the Clown. And on election day, Florida did indeed give Rubio a big thumbs down-- or maybe the middle finger. Trump won all 99 delegates with 1,077,221 votes (45.7%). Rubio only won one county in the whole state, his own, Miami-Dade. His statewide total was a sad 636,653 votes (27.0%), better than Cruz's 403,640 (17.1%) and Kasich's 159,412 (6.8%). But he was, after all, the senator from Florida. There were counties where Trump didn't just win a plurality, but an actual majority, like Walton, Franklin, Hamilton, Lafayette and Taylor in the Panhandle. Trump took 63.4% to Rubio's 11.8% in Dixie Co., 58.8% in Gilchrist (to Rubio's 12.1%), 57.6% in Levy Co. to Rubio's 15.3%. Worse, yet, Rubio came in third after Ted Cruz in all those north-central Florida counties. Trump won out right majorities further south as well-- Pasco, Hernando, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Glades, Highlands, DeSoto, Hardee, Charlotte... Outside of Miami-Dade, Florida was decidedly not Rubio country. It was Trump country. It is Trump country.How do you think Rubio's public antipathy towards Trump today-- his refusal to endorse, campaign with or attend the convention and his refusal yesterday to attend Trumpy the Clown's meeting with Republican members of Congress-- is going over in Florida. They may admire Rubio for it in Miami-Dade, but what about in Florida's GOP heartland?Rubio had only ever run one statewide race before-- the 2010 Senate race, a 3-way deal that pitted him against Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist and weak Democrat Kendrick Meek. Rubio took 48.9%. He lost Broward, Gadsden, Leon, Palm Beach, and Pinellas counties and he wound up polling about 45% in Miami-Dade. Had Meek dropped out, as many Democrats had urged him to, Crist might have been elected senator and no one would have ever heard of Little Marco again.

An anonymous source in McConnell's office gave us the Republican perspective on the Florida Senate race: "Early on there was a clear preference for Alan Grayson. He is an unapologetic liberal who isn't afraid to go on record to support his far left policies. Meanwhile, Patrick Murphy was a relatively unscathed and unknown Congressman with deep pockets and what appeared to be a decent resume. A year later the only thing that holds true is that Murphy has a lot of money from his dad and the Washington Democratic establishment. Other than that, Marco Rubio should be absolutely giddy to be able to run against a liar with a fake resume, fake donors, multiple scandals already brewing, and lord knows what else what might come out. A lot of Republicans are now assuming that the DSCC will do 'McGinty' Murphy across the finish line to defeat Grayson. And you know what? At this point I think they would be more than happy to face Patrick Murphy instead of Grayson."

Our (somewhat wilder and less button-downed) source in Karl Rove's office was more to the point: "Even Republicans recognize that Alan Grayson has more brains in his pinky toenail than Schumer stooge Patrick Murphy does between his ears. After a year of Murphy proving to everyone just how much of a corrupt doofus he really is, Republicans are starting to have a change of heart and would rather run against Murphy than Grayson."

Ahoy Matey!

Rubio has to walk a tightrope now that he's running for reelection. He's petrified of offending his Miami base by embracing the hated Trump, but if he offends Trump enthusiasts up north, they may decide to abstain. Of course, if Rubio has to face Patrick Murphy-- an even weaker candidate than Kendrick Meek was-- in November, he'll be home free and set for another 6 years. But if Grayson wins the August 30 Democratic primary, Rubio will face a real battle based on the issues that divide the right from real American values. Murphy doesn't know how to debate and never has. Grayson would tear Rubio apart and make him wish he was up against Trump again. The GOP is doing everything it can to make sure Murphy is the Democratic nominee.The just announced early GOP ad buy against Murphy is meant to rally reluctant Democrats around him. Remember, in 2014, the Chamber of Commerce didn't spend money electing many Democrats. I think there were 4. One was so-called "ex" Republican, Patrick Murphy, a New Dem who was very consistently crossing the aisle and voting with the GOP against the best interests of his own constituents on one core issue after another-- even suggesting that the way to "fix" Social Security and Medicare would be to cut benefits. This week, the Republican-allied Chamber announced a million dollar ad buy targeting Murphy. Why now? Sure, Murphy is an easy target, but the Chamber and the GOP is desperate to guarantee that Democrats vote for him in August, not Grayson.