And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player

Team

Cla

GP

HnI

Mn/g

Pt/40

Rb/40

As/40

St/40

Bk/40

TO/40

TS%

Xavier Thames

SDSU

Sr.

35

169

31.2

22.2

3.8

4.2

2.2

0.2

1.8

0.552

Nick Johnson

Arizona

Jr.

36

157

32.6

20.0

4.8

3.4

1.4

0.9

2.1

0.552

Aaron Gordon

Arizona

Fr.

36

148

30.8

16.1

10.1

2.6

1.2

1.3

1.9

0.497

T.J. McConnell

Arizona

Jr.

36

144

32.0

10.5

4.5

6.8

2.2

0.3

2.2

0.530

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Arizona

Fr.

36

143

25.0

14.3

9.1

2.4

1.2

1.7

1.9

0.532

Brandon Ashley

Arizona

So.

22

138

27.7

16.6

8.3

1.4

0.9

1.1

2.4

0.588

Dwayne Polee II

SDSU

Jr.

32

137

17.7

19.0

7.4

0.9

2.4

1.2

2.2

0.575

Kaleb Tarczewski

Arizona

So.

34

134

28.5

14.0

9.1

0.7

0.2

1.4

2.4

0.621

Winston Shepard

SDSU

So.

34

129

26.6

17.6

7.4

3.2

1.5

0.5

3.4

0.473

Gabe York

Arizona

So.

36

127

21.4

13.0

4.2

3.0

0.9

0.2

1.1

0.530

Josh Davis

SDSU

Sr.

33

123

30.3

10.3

13.1

1.1

1.4

0.6

1.8

0.459

Skylar Spencer

SDSU

So.

35

120

23.9

8.0

7.1

0.4

1.2

4.2

1.3

0.549

Matt Korcheck

Arizona

Jr.

22

119

4.6

9.4

11.8

0.8

0.8

2.0

2.4

0.667

J.J. O’Brien

SDSU

Jr.

34

119

27.7

11.4

6.8

1.6

1.0

0.5

2.0

0.508

Aqeel Quinn

SDSU

Jr.

31

110

16.5

12.6

4.0

2.4

1.8

0.2

1.8

0.489

Matt Shrigley

SDSU

Fr.

35

108

15.9

13.5

4.0

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.521

Dakarai Allen

SDSU

Fr.

29

94

10.6

9.5

4.4

1.4

2.4

1.3

1.8

0.448

Elliott Pitts

Arizona

Fr.

22

81

8.6

8.0

4.6

1.3

0.8

0.0

1.3

0.528

Jordin Mayes

Arizona

Sr.

32

75

5.7

8.7

3.5

3.7

2.0

0.0

2.6

0.388

Brandon Ashley won’t be playing for Arizona due to injury.

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Player

Team

Cla

M?

HnI

Sco

2pt

FT

3pt

Reb

BH

Df

Xavier Thames

SDSU

Sr.

38

169

120

30

53

37

19

28

21

Nick Johnson

Arizona

Jr.

34

157

107

41

33

33

24

16

18

Aaron Gordon

Arizona

Fr.

34

148

74

58

9

7

54

9

17

T.J. McConnell

Arizona

Jr.

34

144

53

30

6

17

21

53

21

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Arizona

Fr.

27

143

73

46

27

0

50

7

19

Brandon Ashley

Arizona

So.

0

138

96

57

27

12

44

-9

8

Dwayne Polee II

SDSU

Jr.

30

137

107

45

23

39

37

-12

28

Kaleb Tarczewski

Arizona

So.

32

134

86

56

30

0

49

-17

5

Winston Shepard

SDSU

So.

22

129

75

41

35

-1

40

1

18

Gabe York

Arizona

So.

30

127

66

5

11

50

20

21

6

Josh Davis

SDSU

Sr.

36

123

41

32

9

0

70

-7

15

Skylar Spencer

SDSU

So.

31

120

43

39

4

0

40

-9

40

Matt Korcheck

Arizona

Jr.

9

119

61

41

20

0

63

-15

9

J.J. O’Brien

SDSU

Jr.

30

119

54

35

17

2

39

-3

9

Aqeel Quinn

SDSU

Jr.

12

110

57

9

15

33

20

8

14

Matt Shrigley

SDSU

Fr.

1

108

67

12

10

45

19

2

10

Dakarai Allen

SDSU

Fr.

94

36

21

16

0

26

-3

24

Elliott Pitts

Arizona

Fr.

81

40

9

1

30

24

1

0

Jordin Mayes

Arizona

Sr.

75

21

7

15

-1

18

14

12

Again – no Brandon Ashley this game.

What really stands out to me is that 5 of the top 6 players in terms of ball handling (ast & to with pace/SoS factored) are Arizona Wildcats. I would assume that would be a distinct advantage for Arizona when both teams are fighting to get good shots. Thames needs to play every minute of those predicted 38 minutes for SDSU, getting decent looks against the #1 defensive team in the nation won’t be easy – especially if he sits at all.

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI

Sco

2pt

FT

3pt

Reb

BH

Df

Arizona

141.7

76.0

39.5

19.2

17.3

37.2

14.1

14.1

SDSU

132.6

73.0

34.7

23.1

15.3

39.4

1.1

21.4

These are very similar teams – elite defensively (although Arizona is undoubtedly the best in the nation), while offensively they can struggle at times to hit shots. Arizona’s obvious advantage in ball handling (see BH above) will probably ensure better shots and better offensive efficiency. Mind you, I’m not saying Arizona’s offensive efficiency will be good – it just has a solid chance of not being as bad as San Diego State, an offensive challenged good team facing the best defense in the nation.