Emergent Research

EMERGENT RESEARCH is focused on better understanding the small business sector of the US and global economy.

Authors

The authors are Steve King and Carolyn Ockels. Steve and Carolyn are partners at Emergent Research and Senior Fellows at the Society for New Communications Research. Carolyn is leading the coworking study and Steve is a member of the project team.

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Disclosure Policy

Emergent Research works with corporate, government and non-profit clients. When we reference organizations that have provided us funding in the last year we will note it.
If we mention a product or service that we received for free or other considerations, we will note it.

As the Brookings Institute chart below shows, so far 4 centers have been started. In all four cases, a mix of public and private money has been used to fund the centers with the private sector contributing the majority of funds.

We believe these public/private partnerships are a valuable way to improve the manufacturing economy.

In this model the federal government is a catalyst providing seed money, but the design and goals of the manufacturing centers are under local control.

One of the many benefits of this model is local small businesses get to participate. For example, a number of small manufacturing companies are involved in the Youngstown additive (3D) manufacturing center.

The NNMI program requires a very modest amount of federal money and is a great investment in our economy. Let's hope our legislative branch is smart enough to fully fund this program.

“It's always going to be niche, constrained by how many people want to stay in an Airbnb type of experience,”

I've always been very surprised by the hotel industry's lack of concern about Airbnb.

Their business model is a classic example of disruptive innovation as defined by Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen.

Key quote from Christensen on disruptive innovation:

"Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can include: lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions ..."

Again, this is the classic approach of disruptive innovators. They start with an under served market and then move into the mainstream. This is how Southwest Airlines, Japanese Car Manufacturers, Nucor Steel and many others became industry leaders.

The hotel industry's response to Airbnb is a great example of how hard it is for incumbents to respond to - or even recognize - alternative business models and disruptive business practices.

March 26, 2014

The Rise of Anti-Capitalism is a fascinating essay by economist Jeremy Rifkin. He predicts the non-profit sector will play an increasingly important role in the world’s economic future.

This is not the first time Rifkin has suggested this. His 1995 book End of Work also suggested that non-profits were the future of business. Here's Wikepedia's synopsis of the book:

In 1995, Rifkin contended that worldwide unemployment would increase as information technology eliminated tens of millions of jobs in the manufacturing, agricultural and service sectors. He predicted devastating impact of automation on blue collar, retail and wholesale employees. While a small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers would reap the benefits of the high-tech world economy, the American middle class would continue to shrink and the workplace become ever more stressful.

In his essay Rifkin repeats his book's thesis that the non-profit sector is going to become a key source of jobs in the future. Key quote from the essay:

The answer lies in the civil society, which consists of nonprofit organizations that attend to the things in life we make and share as a community.

Rifkin also points out that the global non-profit sector is both large and growing.

In dollar terms, the world of nonprofits is a powerful force. Nonprofit revenues grew at a robust rate of 41 percent — after adjusting for inflation — from 2000 to 2010, more than doubling the growth of gross domestic product, which increased by 16.4 percent during the same period. In 2012, the nonprofit sector in the United States accounted for 5.5 percent of G.D.P.

First, the Center looks at trends from a very different perspective than other trend watchers. This often results in insights not found elsewhere. The second reason is the authors are museum folks, which means the report is extremely well curated and written.

This year's report focuses on 6 broad trends:

1. For Profit for Good: explores the trend towards social entrepreneurs pioneering ways of achieving social good while forgoing nonprofit status and/or using hybrid for and non-profit business models.

2. Synesthesia: looks at is the collision of two trends—the proliferation of technologies that give us new ways to capture and share scent, sound, sight, touch and taste; and the integration of multisensory stimulation into traditional experiences that used to be premised on one main sensory input.

This is a great example of the Center's different perspective.

3. A Geyser of Information: focuses on the rise of big data.

4. Privacy in a Watchful World: looks at the flip side of big data - what it means for privacy.

5. What’s Mine is Yours: provides the Center's view of the sharing economy.

6. Robots!: covers ... robots.

While well known in the museum industry, the Center for the Future of Museums isn't well known in other industries. This is too bad, they do really good work.

BTW, if you don't subscribe to their weekly newsletter - Dispatches from the Future of Museums - you should. It's a rare week when we don't learn something of value from this newsletter.

March 24, 2014

A startup company, PetChatz, is about to release a video conferencing system that allows remote dog owners to video chat with their dogs. It also allows the dog owner to remotely release treats and scents.

But the best part is the dog can call their owner by barking at the system.

This triggers an alert that goes to an app on the owner's smartphone, tablet or PC.

I'm seriously looking forward to the day when someone says to me "sorry, I've got to take this call. It's my dog".

The system contains a speaker, webcam, LCD screen, scent and treat dispensers and sound and motion sensors. Users mount it on a wall at the right height for their dogs.

One of the things I find really interesting about this product is we've reached the point where mobile devices and video conferencing have become so cheap, we can use them to talk to dogs.

We cover Pet Trends and the shift towards pet humanization mostly for fun.

March 18, 2014

The paradox is even though the Internet and connective technologies has made working remotely easier than ever, people and companies are increasingly clustering together in fewer, more valuable locations.

What's happening San Francisco is an obvious example. There's almost a land grab frenzy of companies and people moving into the city. But it's not just San Francisco nor just places with a lot of tech companies. All over the world, people are moving to cities and near-in suburbs.

This paradox is happening because in our knowledge-intensive world, industries and people cluster in order to share information, generate ideas and cut deals. These activities are all still better done face to face.

Companies also cluster to access talent, which is attracted to urban areas due to job opportunities and the amenites urban or near-in suburban living provide.

This paradox extends to freelancers and other independent workers.

Given how expensive cities tend to be relative to small towns or rural areas and how easy it is to telework, why do the so many independent workers choose to live in urban areas - and especially places like SF and New York?

We've been exploring this issue and the quick answer appears to be the same reasons companies and traditional employees are clustering - place matters to freelancers too.

This is, of course, not exclusively true. Growing numbers of Digital Nomads are wandering the earth and teleworking from the remotest of locations. And telecommuting is on the rise, especially for independent workers.

But for most independent workers, place matters.

The Brookings Institute has been doing a lot of work on clusters and cities. The very brief video below does a nice job of summarizing their point of view.

"The big issue over the next 5 to 10 years is going to become how far do we go in pursuit of the perfect baby," said Caplan. "Do I think we're going down that road? Yes. Does it creep me out? Yes. Are you going to be able to draw a clear line? I don't think so."

It's hard to argue against a technique that doesn't modify DNA and eliminates the risk that a child will get a disease like muscular dystrophy. So I think the FDA should approve the procedure.

But this raises a lot of ethical issues. For example, a similar technique could potentially be used to make a child taller, or stronger or even smarter. Should this be allowed?

The picture below with the oddly dressed women - turtle neck sweater and jacket as if it's cold, but nothing on her legs or feet - shows how this might look.

While relaxing while in their car of the future is one option, office suite company Regus think people will turn their cars into "a fully-connected workplace and meeting room". According to Regus, cars could become:

A sociable, comfortable, mobile space where four people can meet, discuss a deal in private, use their time better and work. Unlike in today’s taxis, the car’s infotainment systems and connectivity mean passengers can easily work online, make a presentation, and fully connect to the office.

The picture below shows their rolling office concept.

I'd rather wear a turtle neck sweater and watch TV, but if you gotta work this seems like a good way to do it.

March 12, 2014

The quantified dog startup Whistle is expanding its product line to include a Facebook-like social network offering for dogs.

OK, the dogs won't be doing the networking. Their owners will.

Whistle's main product is a doggy version of Nike Fuel or Fitbit - a small device that attaches to a dog's collar and tracks the dog's activity and health. The broader category is called the quantified self, or in this case the quantified dog.

It covers a wide range of topics related to how Millennials are behaving now that they are adults.

Key quote:

Now ranging in age from 18 to 33, they are relatively unattached to organized politics and religion, linked by social media, burdened by debt, distrustful of people, in no rush to marry— and optimistic about the future.

What is Work to a Millennial: Great article in Chief Learning Officer on how Millennials view work compared to other generations. Key quote on how this cohort views work:

Work is a means to an end. Work-life balance is their mantra. Millennials therefore (also called Gen Y) work to play. Not only will the millennials job- and industry-hop, but they will career hop, too. Millennials approach work as an experience. The end game of a career is that they made a difference in the world. Jobs are merely opportunities to learn, experiment, gain experience and become more well-rounded.

Excellent discussion of how Millennials view families and kids. The quick summary is Millennials are just as interested as prior generations in having kids, but they aren't sure they have the time and money to raise them.

What I really liked about all of these is the information is presented without the hype, drama and complaining usually associated with articles on Millennials.