Spitballing Early Contenders, Part One

We’ve been compiling our Contender Tracker pages slowly but we’ve narrowed down the list so far of what contenders might be showing up at this year’s Oscar race. Thanks to Kevin for the help on this. I have ordered them in terms of importance or prestige. Not all Oscar contenders are measured equally. Stars tend to have the advantage over unknowns and repeat nominees and winners also can sometimes have an advantage. More than that, the Oscar contenders are usually earmarked from the beginning of the year and have their place in line. Surprise hits or nominees always find their way into the race and can’t really be predicted but many of them can be. So far, this is how we see it. But it is going to be fluid, not static, and always changing month to month, week to week, day to day.

Oscar Telecast – Lowest Rated Since 2009

49 Comments on this Post

david

Great list so far sasha. I hope you add when it gets distribution ‘the toy soldiers’ best picture contender and Constance Brenneman ‘the toy soldiers’ for best supporting actress contender her performance is absolutely riveting. I caught this film at Dances with films it was thee closing film

steve50

Kane

Lucy? A “question mark” for best picture? What’s funny is in this crazy world where Lucy is a question mark for best picture, Scarlett Johanson isn’t even considered or best actress. But…Lucy is not even in the top 50 of the year. Just a hunch.

But you have to have the fine actresses from Clouds of Sils Maria, and the director too, on this list.

Let’s regard this list as a work in progress. Its most important function right now is to remind people that we’re building up the Contender Tracker pages — and to link to those pages as they’re being built.

Feedback to remind us everything that was left out and everything that got wrongly included is part of the process of refining what we’re seeking to do on the Contender Tracker.

Honestly, I had thought this list was something for us to use privately offline as a guideline for building the Contender Tracker pages — but since it’s online now for everybody to see, let’s just use the opportunity to improve it.

It’s not yet meant to be definitive, alright? It’s a rough list of things that we’re thinking about but maybe shouldn’t be. And it’s a rough list to remind us of things we’re not thinking about but should be.

david, talk about Brie Larson all you want and anything else you feel passionate about.

I’d rather see real passionate advocacy this time of year instead of already starting to throw things under the bus.

When we disregard movies and performances this early on, that’s how we end up falling into the same cookie-cutter ruts year after year. And then we look around in January and wonder how the hell we ended up with so many stale easy-option predictable boring nominees every year.

Al Robinson

“I’d rather see real passionate advocacy this time of year instead of already starting to throw things under the bus.”

YES, very much yes!

Here’s what I’m currently passionate about this year. This is the year of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller!! Start with The Lego Movie, and follow it soon-up with 22 Jump Street. DAMN!! Then, Last Man on Earth looks like it will be great.

I wonder if it’s even possible to get nominated for Best Director for an animated movie?

Nick

Al Robinson

“Under actors Bradley Cooper is listed for American Sniper. According to IMDB that doesnt come out till 2015″

Nick, Clint Eastwood is known for making films pretty quickly. It’s certainly possible that this one could be the not-yet-scheduled, last minute add on to the end of this year. I doubt it will, but I think it could.

That’s all we need. Another Clint Eastwood movie that he squeezes out at breakfast and wraps before lunch.

But seriously, American Sniper began shooting in March and should wrap principle photography any day now.

Even more seriously, that really is just what this country needs. More glorification of guys with guns shipped off to other countries to kill a record number of people in a criminal war waged by liars, the very same liars Eastwood was paling around with at the Republican National Convention.

So Yes, Please get this movie in theaters ASAP while there’s still time to get people excited about Call of Duty: IRAQ 3.0

zazouzazou

Aronofsky is not on this list and he should be included for best director, as Noah was great story telling,powerful and moving.Where is Russell Crowe for Noah,such superb acting and he isn’t mentioned,why is that the case?Too much religion for the film business?

‘Really? Angelina Jolie in the top five directors? Over Paul Thomas Anderson? Richard Linklater? Wes Anderson? Maybe you’ve seen the film and it is brilliant but if this is sight unseen I don’t get it.’

Well why not? Unbroken is receiving major buzz atm, and with its Christmas Day release and big-name director, its position so high in these lists seems reasonable and justifiable to me. Also, I see no indication that Sasha’s list for Best Director is ranked.

I got the impression that all the categories had been ranked “in order of importance and prestige.” Maybe I’m mistaken.

This is all very fluid at this point, gang. Not carved in stone.

I don’t know how anyone endeavors to rank movies that nobody has seen but this is only a meant to be taken as a first swing at possibilities — so Name Recognition Publicity Hype is all we have to go on at the moment.

We can’t possibly all agree on rankings of filmmakers and films than nobody has laid eyes on. Sure, personally I would put Paul Thomas Anderson in the top ranks of the prestige list. Birdman looks like a blast to me but it also looks very much like something Michel Gondry would cook up, and we’ve seen how Michel Gondry flies with the Academy. Fly he does not.

If Noah is too much religion for the film business (and it probably is) then it will be interesting to see how Jolie handles the fact that Louis Zamperini became a Born Again Christian at the behest of evangelist Billy Graham. Since no clue of any of that is seen in the trailers maybe the movie ends before it needs to be addressed at all.
Either way, I anticipate the subject will require some jumping through tricky hoops in order to reconcile in the minds of many people. Although this was certainly not a hurdle that Chariots of Fire had trouble jumping.

joe

I would add the final installment to the hobbit: the battle of the five armies to the best picture list and I have a feeling interstellar will be getting a gravity vibe. Outside of Christopher Nolan fanboys interstellar is not known yet but other movie-goers. I also think birdman since the trailer has gotten a big response and will be a serious contender. Mr. Turner is another movie that’s generating Oscar buzz and if good I can see big eyes and wild doing well.

Jeff

Do we know whether there’s a credible chance of ‘Carol’ and/or ‘Macbeth’ being released this year? If there is a credible chance they’ll be released in 2014, then Blanchett and Cotillard are serious contenders.

And, now that Jennifer Lawrence has finished her filming commitments for the ‘Hunger Games’ movies she’ll finally be able to complete her ADR/ looping work for ‘Serena’ (from what I understand, it’s been her busy schedule that has delayed that movie’s completion). If ‘Serena’ is finished and released late in the year (hopefully debuting at Venice, Telluride, Toronto, New York or AFI) then Jennifer Lawrence also has to be a top tier contender.

from the reviews of Foxcatcher, I got the impression that Channing Tatum would have a better shot for the nomination than Mark Ruffalo- especially since he’s become such a huge star in Hollywood. Maybe the category confusion, since his role is really lead, could possibly lead to a snub. But as long as the distributor campaigns him for supporting, megastars like him would not miss out on a nomination for a strong performance (i.e. Julia Roberts).

Pete

Jerm

Is Exodus being written off? Or is it going to be bad? I mean it is directed by Ridley Scott starring Christain Bale in a biblical epic, which those types have always done well with the Academy. So I’m curious to what Awards Daily thinks of its prospects???

Jerm, Exodus is definitely not being written off, not by me. We just don’t have much to go on at this point. No basis to evaluate. And I forgot to push for its inclusion among the rest of these movies for which we have no basis to evaluate.

Q Mark

Grand Budapest Hotel can be written off already, it’s kind of a trifle amongst Anderson’s work and has already been mostly forgotten. If ‘Moonrise Kingdom’ wasn’t going to get it done for Wes, I’m thinking nothing will.

“Birdman looks like a blast to me but it also looks very much like something Michel Gondry would cook up, and we’ve seen how Michel Gondry flies with the Academy. Fly he does not.”

Gondry has an Oscar on his shelf already, and it wouldn’t at all be a shock to see him get nominated in the future (provided he stops making dreck like Green Hornet). I see no reason why quirkier projects like Birdman can’t make the cut, especially since Innaritu is also an Academy fave.

Future_Filmmaker

Hoping Interstellar is the first Sci-Fi film to win Best Picture, come on Oscars you have to pay Nolan back for what you’ve done to him already. I’m really hoping Noah can be remembered at the end of the year, especially Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly’s win worthy performances, they are the real deal in this film. Also loved Jersey Boys, it’s one of my favorite movies of the year along with Noah, Neighbors & How To Train Your Dragon 2, the first Dreamworks movie to match Pixar. And I enjoyed The Monuments Men also, it’s a throwback and people aren’t understanding the type of film he was going for with it. Gonna watch Enemy, The Immigrant, and Under the Skin this week

joe

I’m looking forward to interstellar too but I think the final installment of the hobbit should be rewarded like the final installment of lotr. Nolan should’ve been rewarded for the dark knight trilogy and memento. The hobbit movies have potential more than the star wars prequels. I hope the Lego movie or boxtrolls wins animated feature. Although I must say httyd 2 was entertaining. Jersey boys is a flop. Get on up or into the woods will be the musical movies of the year.

Leocdc

SeattleMoviegoer

great observation, Ryan, on the “let’s get the damn thing done” school of directing a movie that Clint Eastwood comes from. just saw his JERSEY BOYS tonight. i had thought that it would be a major awards contender this year considering the source material. the stage show is a HUMONGOUS hit worldwide in NYC, London, Vegas, world tours, etc., and rightly so. it’s a thrilling piece of popular entertainment. but you’d never know it from Eastwood’s film. he sucked all the life out of it–not to mention most of the color. he used that desaturated, colorless process that made LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA so pale and depressing. Warners deserves a flop in this as they handed a great property to the wrong director and gave it a pathetic marketing campaign.

shiera

Drood

Shaking my head in deep wonderment as to in what universe Ava DuVernay ranks above Mike Leigh, Ridley Scott or Stephen Daldry in terms of “importance or prestige.” Certainly not in terms of likelihood of AMPAS’ consideration…

Birdman is decidedly NOT a “dude-in-a-birdsuit movie”. Having seen it, I can say that definitively. That said, I have serious reservations about its awards potential, aside from the absolute LOCK for Chivo in Cinematography. They won’t go for Keaton unless they go for the film in a bigger way, and that’s a huge question mark. But none of that matters. It’s a marvel of craft by all involved, but especially the actors, Innaritu as director and Chivo. There will be a lot of digital ink spilled about the technical achievements in the near future. Too bad it’s all in service of a script with some serious issues.

Al Robinson

Chris, the last time you raised doubt about a potential movie (The Monuments Men), I questioned you, and even said something I deem as mean. But it turned out you were right. The Monuments Men had it’s issues, and will not see any Oscar nominations.

This time, I’m not gonna make that mistake with Birdman. You’ve seen it, and you have my respect. I’m still hoping I end up dissagreeing with you, and I like it, but, the movie DOES look a bit strange.

Also, Chris, is there any similarities to The Wrestler. It suddenly seems to me, like Birdman might be similar to that one, and Michael Keaton is the next Mickey Rourke.

Sasha Stone

Shaking my head in deep wonderment as to in what universe Ava DuVernay ranks above Mike Leigh, Ridley Scott or Stephen Daldry in terms of “importance or prestige.” Certainly not in terms of likelihood of AMPAS’ consideration…

In this case, subject matter. Ridley Scott? Seriously? Obviously you don’t see the race, or Hollywood culture, as I do. It’s a much bigger deal to have a black female writer/director making a movie about Martin Luther King, Jr. than any of those you mention. You don’t just take the person’s name when looking at Oscar prospects – you look at what they’re doing at this moment in time. That matters more than who they are.