Canadians of all political stripes were overjoyed when Barack Obama first rose to power. Americans had elected a kindred spirit who stood for a kinder and gentler society as a champion of accessible health care, a more responsible Wall Street, less war. What they got was five years of frustration.

To be sure, part of it had to do with a divided Congress, which thwarted progress on many of the U.S.’s own contentious issues. But much of it had to do with Obama’s deliberate handling of the Keystone XL pipeline. He has kept the project in a constant state of review, escalating a cross-border war of words between proponents-including Canadian governments and the oil industry-and opponents – mostly American green groups feeling entitled to dictate Canada’s priorities in the name of global climate action.

The conflict has tested Canada/U.S. relations. Some liken today’s frosty state of affairs to the darkest moments of the softwood lumber dispute, or to when former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien refused to join the U.S. in the war in Iraq, or to when Canada thumbed its nose at American oil investors and implemented the National Energy Program. It’s this tension that has pushed Canada to accelerate trade diversification toward Asia and the European Union.”We should ignore and avoid Obama as a chronic adversary, and wait for a future better president, and meanwhile do business with overseas customers,” said one of many disillusioned Canadians.

You know things are bleak when Prime Minister Stephen Harper declares on U.S. soil that Canada won’t “take no for an answer” on the Keystone XL pipeline. Or when KXL foe Tom Steyer, the California hedgefund billionaire turned climate guru and major Obama donor, pays for commercials that denigrate Harper as a puppet of Beijing whose real motive in pushing KXL is to enable exports of Canadian oil to China.

But Kimble Ainslie, president of London, Ont.-based Nordex Research and a long-time analyst of Canada/U.S. relations, said he’s seen worse, such as when John F. Kennedy helped defeat John Diefenbaker’s conservative government. Today, “Relations are moderately restive,” Ainslie says. “There is uncertainty and ambiguity about the relationship. It is not in the tank in my view.”

There is foot-dragging on the part of the U.S. administration, but Ainslie noted there is also solid support for KXL and for having a strong relationship with Canada by U.S. Republicans. Still, Ainslie wouldn’t be surprised if Obama continues to stall a KXL permit until it becomes the next president’s problem. Rather than getting frustrated, he says Canadians should appreciate the U.S. has a “big, broad, multi-faceted, highly fragmented, highly variegated political system” and act accordingly, such as by accepting that a decision on KXL is out of their hands and that “in the U.S., no decision is ever settled.”

It’s a long border, it’s a long-distance relationship, and it’s a long-distance race

Gary Doer, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. since TransCanada Corp. first proposed KXL, said the bilateral relationship is progressing on many fronts despite the appearance of tension. He notes Canadian oil shipments to the U.S. have soared to 31% of its oil imports, from 19%five years ago; there have many border improvements such as pre-clearance at Canadian airports and a new Detroit-Windsor bridge, proposed a dozen years ago, received a presidential permit last year; the Softwood Lumber Agreement was extended to 2015; and the two countries have agreed to jointly implement tougher vehicle emission standards.

Doer remains confident the pipeline will get the presidential nod because the facts and the science are in its favour, as recently confirmed by a final environmental impact statement conducted by the State Department. “Delay is not denial,” he says. “It’s frustrating for the company and for us, but our job is to get the facts out there. It’s a long border, it’s a long-distance relationship, and it’s a long-distance race, but we are making progress every day.”