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The Breakfast Briefing

It’s all about Mario now.

Investors are moving their fixation from one central bank to the next, with all eyes and ears now focused on what European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has in store. The ECB is expected to announce at 7:45 a.m. Eastern Time moves to support the euro at its ECB policy meeting, with Draghi’s press conference following soon after.

No matter what the ECB decides, the stakes appear to be even higher for Draghi than they were for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who disappointed investors yesterday by failing to announce any fresh stimulus.

The difference is Bernanke wasn’t the one parading around town setting expectations at a high level. That was Draghi, who boldly told the world last he’ll do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, and “believe me, it will be enough.” Such audacious words prompted stocks to rally big.

One would think it’s time for him to back up all the chatter.

Or maybe not.

A survey of investors by Societe Generale found most respondents think the ECB will fall short of the hyped up expectations for aggressive intervention to address the euro-zone debt crisis.

Asked “Will the ECB disappoint?” 69% said yes.

But how that translates to market behavior later today is anyone’s guess.

A disappointment could constitute anything short of a new round of bond-buying. But the other question is, if so many think Draghi will fall short of his promise to do “whatever it takes,” then why have markets held up so well?

While investors might think they can get ahead of their own “disappointment” by simply expecting the worst, they can still be let down when those expectations are met.

Convoluted logic, perhaps, but who said markets are logical anyway?

Morning MarketBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1939, Albert Einstein signed a letter to President FDR urging him to develop a nuclear weapon.

Stocks to Watch
American Eagle Outfitters got a pop in after-hours action Wednesday, rising better than 6% after the company reported a 9% jump in July same-store sales and raised its second-quarter profit target.

Beam is slated to report its second-quarter results. The spirits firm is expected to earn 54 cents a share on revenue of $582.3 million, according to the average estimate of analysts polled by FactSet.

And Yelp jumped 10% after narrowing its latest loss and nearly doubling its revenue.

But Green Mountain Coffee Roasters fell more than 9% after the company cut its financial targets for the second time since May.

Cardinal Health is also up and the company will post a profit of 72 cents a share on revenue of $27.3 billion if Wall Street’s best guesses are on the mark.

And GM will earn 78 cents a share with sales of $38.28 billion if it meets analyst expectations.

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