NL Analysis - September 16, 2019

Foltynewicz won his third straight decision with 6.0 innings of one-run ball in Washington. The 27-year-old has been pitching very well as of late; he boasts a miniscule 1.84 ERA over his last six starts (34.1 IP). This stretch of good pitching has seen Foltynewicz's ERA drop from a hideous 6.24 to a respectable 4.80. The biggest difference in his pitching over the past six games compared to earlier in the season is that he has been keeping opposing batters inside of the park at a vastly lower rate. Prior to this recent success, Foltynewicz was giving up 2.29 HR/9, but over the past six games he has given up just .79 HR/9. It's hard to say if he will keep this up for the rest of the season, but fantasy owners in need of a reliable arm down the stretch will be hard pressed to find a safer bet in the Free Agency at this point (Foltynewicz is available in 37.2% of ESPN leagues).

Kyle Hendricks, SP, CHC

Hendricks gave up just one run across 6.0 solid innings of work yesterday against the Pirates. Hendricks has now strung together three consecutive one-run outings since his six-run hiccup against the Mets at the end of August. He's now 11-9 and totes the league's 15th best ERA of 3.26; though his 4.33 xFIP doesn't even crack the top 30. Hendricks is always an over looked fantasy pitcher because he throws incredibly soft (87.3 vFA) and he pitches to contact (7.55 K/9). Despite those "unappealing" attributes, the 29-year-old hasn't posted an ERA over 3.45 in any of the last three seasons (which includes an ERA title in 2016). There is no reason to expect anything different in 2020.

James Marvel, SP, PIT

After making a solid debut last week against the Cardinals (5.0IP, 4H, 2ER), Marvel struggled mightily in his encore performance against the Cubs. He surrendered nine hits, seven earned runs, and struck out just two in 4.0 innings of work. The 25-year-old isn't worth your fantasy consideration for the remainder of this season and you probably better off not worrying about him next season either. Marvel's propensity to avoid the long ball (.59 HR/9 in Triple-A) is primarily what got him called up to the big leagues a few weeks ago; but his other numbers are not particularly inspiring. In 60.2 innings in Triple-A this season he displayed a below average K-rate (7.86 K/9) and quite average walk rate (3.26 BB/9). His ERA was an impressive 2.67, but his xFIP was a whopping 5.04, so it's hard to take much stock in that tidy ERA. His velocity doesn't appear to be up to big league standards (90.4 vFA in start vs STL) and he hasn't displayed the ability to command the strike zone like a finesse pitcher needs to in this day and age.

Nicholas Castellanos, OF, CHC

Castellanos finished 2 for 3, with a pair of doubles and 3 RBI, in the Cubs' shellacking of the Pirates on Saturday afternoon. The move to the NL has been very good to Castellanos and his fantasy owners. In 180 plate appearances with the Cubs he is batting .335 with 15 home runs; in his 439 plate appearances for the Tigers this season he had just 11 homers and batted .273. What's even more remarkable is that his wOBA has been .089 points higher (.420) and his wRC+ has been 55 points higher (160) in his time in Chicago verses his time in Detroit this season.

Aaron Nola, SP, PHI

Nola impressively kept the mighty Red Sox at bay on Saturday night to the tune of one run across 7.0 innings of work. He struck out nine and allowed seven baserunners (4H, 3BB) in the contest. Unfortunately, the Phillies couldn't offer Nola much run supports so he received a No Decision for his efforts. While this was a positive outing overall for the right hander, it's worrisome that he continues to struggle with his control. Nola has really been victimized by his many free passes recently. He walked seven batters in 10 innings over his previous two starts and is now walking 5.29 batters per nine over his last 17 innings. Nola has been a little loose with walks this season (3.47 BB/9) on the whole, but he has still been effective, posting an 3.62 ERA and 3.78 xFIP. These aren't last year,s numbers, but they are nothing to scoff at either. Hopefully Nola can correct some of his control issues in the offseason and come back more like the 2018 version of himself in 2020

Growing up I loved Sammy Sosa and the Chicago Cubs. The 1998 Home Run duel between Sosa and Mark McGwire was a highlight of my childhood and was ultimately where my infatuation with baseball and statistics began. That infatuation then grew exponentially a few year later when my father took me to my first Major League game between the Cubs and Rockies at Coors Field. We sat a few rows up behind home plate where I witnessed Slammin' Sammy hit three, 3-run Home Runs, in three consecutive innings. I was elated, it was as if the game was scripted for me. I've personally witnessed a lot of great sports games since then, from Brett Favre at Lambeau to LeBron James in the finals, but nothing compares to the show that my favorite player put on for me at my first baseball game.