Feb 15, 2009

"Most damaging fires in Victoria are driven at considerable speed (max reported 27 kph for grass and 12kph for forest fires) by hot dry North - Northwest winds and then consume large areas at the passage of a SW wind change. Often the wind moves to the west before going back to the Northwest as a pre-frontal trough passes and then often violently to the Southwest with the cold front." [Tragically this is what happened]

"The large areas of fuel to the north and west creates a serious threat to the whole shire and ultimately to the urban edge developments in the southern parts of the Shire(Photo 2). The other targets for rampant fire spread are the rural residents throughout the Shire and in the Central and Eastern sections the linear villages along the Heidelberg-Kinglake road and the Kangaroo-St Andrews Road." [Tragically these areas were hard hit by the fires]

"Initial attack on fire ignitions can be very effective in controlling potentially disastrous fires. It would be necessary on days of 40 degrees and 40 kph winds to ensure detection and suppression in the first 5 - 10 minutes. I doubt that much of the Shire can be protected by relying upon initial attack." [Tragically the fire was not suppressed before it became much larger - realistically it's such a large area and there are relatively few fire units that this is hard to accomplish]

The report also includes some insightful photos, including this one of a house with low survivability chances.

I had to study the photo for a bit to see the house.

No doubt David Packham the report's author will be making his views known through the Royal Commission - let's hope he gets a hearing and that we make changes based on these horrific fires.

There have burnoffs. When we drove the St Andrews to Kinglake Road in mid-January it had clearly been burnt off in recent history. The debate will be on how much should be burned and how often.

* David Packham, OAM, MAppSci, worked for 40 years in bushfire research with CSIRO, Monash University and the Australian Emergency Management Institute.

More level headed minds than mine will be engaged in the lengthy analysis of the Feb 2009 Victoria Bush Fires. The scope of an enquiry will no doubt be complex but the outcome is simple - what must we do as a nation to ensure that never again will we suffer a tragedy of this magnitude?

Debate will rage on the safety of living in wooded areas and the need for greater levels of fuel reduction. Debate is already raging on whether the "if you are leaving, leave early or be prepared to defend your house" policy should stand.

A couple of things stand out. In this world of 24/7 always on constant communication, there was a major failure of communication to people in the affected areas.

According to this article in The Australian (link) the tragedy was well over before 'the authorities' were aware of the scale of the disaster on the ground.

We need to accept that the scale of this fire was so immense and its progress so swift that it was remarkable anyone in its path survived. We also need to accept that the best trained, most dedicated CFA volunteers couldn't dull the sharp thrust of this fire at its peak.

However the lack of information flowing into the "Integrated Emergency Co-ordination Centre" and thus the lack of warnings out to communities is the most telling failing in this great tragedy.

"From this moment [the identification of the Kilmore Fire], and for the rest of what would become known as Black Saturday, the bulk of the CFA's fire warnings being relayed on ABC radio trailed the reality on the ground. They came too late to alert many of the communities in its path." (The Australian)

"BY 4.30pm, it was clear inside the war room that things in the field were going wrong fast, although no one yet knew of any deaths." -- by this time many people had died in Kinglake West, Strathewen and St Andrews

...

"BY 5.30pm in the war room, no one knew that Kinglake or Steels Creek had been lost and that at least 37 people lay dead in those townships."

...

"INCREDIBLY, by 6pm, no one within the war room had yet received any confirmation that lives had been lost."

Thus the tragedy has been compounded as the central co-ordinating authority seemed to know nothing more than there were fires all around Melbourne and Gippsland and that the weather conditions were terrible.

The bungle and delayed emergency alert system would have been no help on this day if it had been triggered by this central authority. Perhaps local teams sounding the alert might have saved more lives.

Which brings me to the only other lesson which I think can be taken at this stage from this tragedy. If you are to defend your house, whether by choice or because it's too late to evacuate, you need to be prepared. I've read reports of people hoping to fight fires in shorts and t-shirts. It was horrifically hot on that day - a day when it was hell on earth - but if you are not dressed right, equipped right and prepared mentally, you really stand very little chance.

This immense tragedy is a reminder to us all - are we prepared? Do we know what to do? I confess to not being very prepared. I was far too relaxed on the couch under the airconditioner. We're not in an area which is obviously threatened but these fires have shown that no one is safe - an ember can travel 15-20 km and set your house on fire.

The Royal Commission will remind us again of what we should do and how we should be prepared. Will we listen? Will we demand real action in our communities this time?

This bush fire tragedy has eclipsed all others. The scale of loss is horrific and I am personally sickened at the thought that better communication and preparation would have saved many lives that were lost.

The meaning of the term 'hero' has been diluted through its everyday application to celebrities such as footballers and cricketers. So I think we have to call our CFA Volunteers SuperHeroes - they've done an incredible job against unbelievable odds often working round and round the clock with no thoughts beyond fighting the fire close at hand.

So far at least no CFA volunteer has lost their life, though two NSW firefighter are reported as seriouly injured this morning.

The reward for many firefighters is that while they've been selflessly saving many houses they've lost their own.

Neil Creek, a photographer, has close connection to the fires. On his blog he says, "There are many stories of suffering and loss, but one of them in particular has touched me. A friend of mine, Erin, used to live in Kinglake, one of the worst-hit areas. Most of her family still lives there, and they have lost everything. Her brother Ben, a father and CFA member (volunteer firefighter), was away from his home, fighting the huge fires elsewhere when his house burned down (his family are safe)."

Neil is auctioning a limited edition print of a country scene in Mansfield, near the fires and typical of the country side that's been devastated. The proceeds will go to benefit Ben and his family as they rebuild after the fire.

Feb 14, 2009

Looking East from Zonzos after Yarra Valley bushfires -- the hay shed has gone, which diminishes this lovely vista. Fortunately Zonzos is still in business, cranking out the best pizzas in the southern hemisphere.

Of course this is a really trivial loss compared to the 200+ people who died, countless animals and the 1800+ homes lost leaving ~5000 people homeless.

The area around Zonzos that burnt is instructive. Open but dry country well away from any forests. Yet an ember from the fire 15-20 km North was carried by wind last Saturday night and set the paddock and hay shed alight. The three houses nearby were saved. Closer to Yarra Glen there were a number of fires very close to houses again started by embers. In these cases residents staying and protecting their homes from ember attacks saved them.

I still can't really take on the full magnitude of this tragedy. A whole community like Marysville surely can't be just wiped out in less than 30 minutes - but it was.