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What's at stake? President Obama's credibility. He needs to stake out a new course for governing, and then follow through. No spin or high-minded rhetoric. The jobless will be looking for reassurance that his policies will encourage businesses to hire them -- and those that have jobs want to be assured that his proposals don't threaten their employment. Small business owners will be looking for signals of policy stability. They will be looking for proposals that help to foster certainty.

It would be so nice, as fellow Arena contributor Jeffrey Stewart recommends, for President Obama to propose a "massive tax cut for small businesses." They are the job creators, but they can't perform this key function if they don't have the resources to create jobs of if Washington is threatening to hit them with costly taxes and regulations. I expect that the President will focus on small business. These proposals, however, must be meaningful initiatives that jar them out of their collective frozen mindset -- many of them are currently hunkering down, rather than thinking and acting confidently about growth. President Obama can change that with a set of positive, pro-growth proposals.

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The Arena is a cross-party, cross-discipline forum for intelligent and lively conversation about political and policy issues. Contributors have been selected by POLITICO staff and editors. David Mark, Arena's moderator, is a Senior Editor at POLITICO. Each morning, POLITICO sends a question based on that day's news to all contributors.