Competition for Congress is intense

Tuesday

Jul 29, 2008 at 3:00 PM

Louisiana is marking its return to party primaries with a bang or, just as noisy, real competition in most of its races for Congress. The crowded ballots are brought about by retirements, indictments and the projected tsunami turnout of the historic presidential election. Yet the retro voting system will add a few twists of its own.

The most welcome effect of party primaries, the first since 1974, will be the conclusion of voting on the first Tuesday in November, along with the rest of America, instead of having runoffs drag into December as in recent years.

It won’t be cheaper, because the combination of party primaries for congressional elections and open primaries for state and local races necessitates three election dates in more than half of the state’s precincts, at an added cost of about $2.4 million.

But for the graciousness of Jacques Boudreaux, who filed but then withdrew from the Republican Senate primary against Treasurer John Kennedy, it would have cost another $1.8 million to operate precincts in three congressional districts with no other elections on that day.

Only one House seat is already decided, because no one opposed Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon in the 3rd District. The race in the 5th is all but over, with Republican Congressman Rodney Alexander facing a little-known primary challenger and no Democrat in the general election.

Every other race has something to distinguish it. Even in the GOP stronghold of the 1st District, where Congressman Steve Scalise, R-Metairie, won a spring election, Democratic businessman Jim Harlan aims to make the race at least financially competitive. He has put up the biggest personal ante of any candidate in the state, $525,000, more than double what Scalise has in his as-yet unreplenished coffers. Because Harlan has only lent his campaign that money, it remains to be seen how much of it he actually spends.

Six Democrats challenging indicted Congressman William Jefferson promise a donnybrook in the 2nd District, where practically any two candidates could slip into the second primary with as little as 20 percent of the vote. Jefferson’s potential demise could come at the benefit of another Jefferson, the parish. If its lone entry, Parish Councilman Byron Lee, ultimately wins, and Scalise is re-elected, Jefferson Parish would have two congressmen and Orleans would have none, both firsts since statehood.

Democrats have targeted the Shreveport-based 4th District as their most likely pickup, with nearly all elected officials rallying behind retiring Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. But the real action is on the Republican side, where three well-funded but little-experienced contenders are trying to out-conservative one another.

What the Democrats might gain in the 4th they could lose in the 6th, which looms as the party’s heartbreak election. Democratic Congressman Don Cazayoux of New Roads, elected in May, is not only one of the most junior members of the House but could also be its most short-lived. Baton Rouge Republicans are coming together behind state Sen. Bill Cassidy with the money and enthusiasm they withheld from Woody Jenkins in the spring election.

Rising GOP star Cassidy would be a formidable challenger on his own, but Cazayoux’s real problem lies with once-fellow Democrat Rep. Michael Jackson, who has filed to run without party affiliation. That gives him a free pass to the November ballot where he hopes to ride Barack Obama’s wave of African-American voters (Jackson is black). Republicans read the math of the Democratic split as their opportunity to win back the seat they held for 34 years before Cazayoux’s interlude.

The election year’s biggest surprise might lurk in the 7th District in Acadiana-Southwest. Two-term Congressman Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, is the clear favorite, but national Democrats are making a statement in financially backing state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. of Opelousas, who is African-American. The district is only 20 percent black, but Cravins is as conservative as most of its constituents and a better campaigner — more aggressive so far, anyway — than the incumbent. Politics in the Cajun heartland is the state’s least predictable, which fits the theme of an election cycle steaming toward uncharted waters.

John Maginnis is a statewide political writer and author of “The Last Hayride.” His Web site is www.lapolitics.com.

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