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This article is extremely positive for the price gold and silver but you must take your time, reading it carefully therefore understanding it. GG, I and BH do and this must be studied so you will also see the new world we have fallen into. Dante would be proud

Since there is no precedent for economic conditions globally today few if any outside of GG and we understand how to converging circumstances are bullish for gold and very bullish for silver. Globalism may have bitten the dust but the impact of this experiment is going to be with us for a generation. The reset is coming but not by central bank decision. It is coming because we have exterminated all markets with techies running the show.

You must grasp the awful pickle that pensions and insurance companies are in to add to all the others back story dollar negatives there are from outrageous OTC counter party commitments to the size of all debt. Brevet is done This could be three strikes and the EU is out for all practical purposes.

Gundlach believes that Trump’s policies can raise the bond yields to 6% in the next 4 to 5 years. I believe that the recent surge in interest rates worldwide, with global bonds posting the biggest two-week loss ($1.8trn) in 26 years (since 1990) as President-elect Donald Trump sent inflation expectations surging, will rise above 3% before the end of 2016. Why? Because investors, mainly the hedge funds, and not so much the life insurance and pension companies that often hold their bonds until maturity, must get wary that the 10y Treasury Yield might break the 2.5% (we have already reached the 2.40% level on Wednesday November 23) and subsequently the very important 3% – see below.

Since 1981 when Volcker raised the Fed Funds Rate from 11.2% in 1979 to 20% in June of 1981, interest rates have been trending downward. Consequently, when the yield rises above the 3% level it breaks the declining range which has been intact for the last 35 years. Subsequently with the tremendous illiquidity in the market, caused by the Central Bankers and new regulations, we could very quickly see yields of 4%, 5%…and even 6%. The 35-year break out will not be gradual…as that is the nature of patterns breaking out of long-term trends.

Do you think investors want to stay in the bond market with the Italian NO vote on December 4? This is almost a certainty with all its potential unwanted consequences of breaking up the EU and much higher Italian interest rates with as first culprit the Italian retail investors (bail-ins) and huge losses for the French banks on their Italian bond positions. International banks have lent Italian banks €550bn of which €250bn was lent by the French banks. This could force worldwide bond CDS (Credit Default Swaps) and interest rates much higher. Everybody will go for the gates because breakouts of long-term (35 year) ranges are very violent and extreme. Consequently, funds don’t want to incur even bigger losses before the end of the year and annihilate bonuses or what is left of them. On top of that we have the Fed meeting on December 13-14 with an almost 100% certainty that the Fed Funds Rate will be raised.

In my opinion the rising interest rates will not be a consequence of the anticipated rate of inflation (stemming from the low base effect of commodities), as is normally the case, but will be the result of the increasing risks (the status is changing everywhere) and poor market conditions such as illiquidity.

Debt levels have increased by 47% from $150trn in 2008 to $220trn in 2016!!

Despite the low interest rates and the subsequent underfunding of the pension plans, global debt levels have increased significantly since 2008. Debt across the nonfinancial sectors of almost every economy remains close to record highs, meaning that the potential for negative wealth effects in the real economy is very much there. Whilst world GDP has increased by 16% from $63trn in 2008 to $73trn in 2015 according to figures of the World Bank the overall global debt has increased by 47% from $150trn in 2008 to $220trn+ in 2016. A threefold increase compared to the increase in GDP. The following chart shows how global debt has increased from 2000 to 2014.

As we know loans or debt bring forward future income because future income needs to be used to repay the capital sum and the interest charges and thus future GDP forecast will be lower with ever increasing debt levels. This will mean that ultimately a huge capital destruction will take place because valuations will come crashing down following the reduced ability to consume which will lead to much lower price earnings ratios. It will be a self-feeding dynamic. And this will result in the debouchment of the currencies leading to less and less global purchasing power! Don’t forget the currency is ultimately the benchmark of your (global) wealth. And therefore when currencies are debouched, as we witnessed with the Brexit and the subsequent flash crash in the UK, it is important to maintain purchasing power by buying physical gold and silver. Gold and silver are valued in all currencies and thus when one currency undergoes a devaluation gold and silver keep their value in other currencies unless that currency is the reserve currency, the US dollar. Just also look at India where the abolishment of the Rupee 500 ($7.5) and 1,000 ($15) notes, which are no longer legal tender, saw gold exceeding $2,000/oz. or 50,000 rupees per 10 grams of gold ($1=R68.5056). Another clear example of how the value of paper money that can be manipulated and declared worthless and the rise of the value of the ultimate currencies gold and silver that have value on their own. N’importe quai what politicians determine gold and silver will never lose their value. Ever wondered why so many Central Banks have a large part of their forex reserves in gold?

Anyway the following example will illustrate the diminishing returns of the incumbent US economy and the additional loans that are needed to create decreasing incremental value in GDP. According to the latest BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) revision, the nominal annualized Q1 GDP in the US was $18.23 trillion (according to the World Bank 2015 global GDP was $73trn), an increase of just $65 billion from the previous quarter or an annualized 0.7% rate; the question is how much credit had to be created to generate this growth. Well, according to the Z.1 (Fed, Financial Accounts of the United States – Z.1), total credit rose increased by $645 billion to a new record high $64.1 trillion. It means that in 1Q2016, $10 in new debt was needed to generate just $1 in new economic growth (see below)! Basically these figures show the inefficiency of the incumbent economic system with an infrastructure that desperately needs a complete overhaul, lower taxes and fewer regulations that prohibit the creation of new businesses. Though it is like spaghetti software whereby new software is added to existing software, which becomes a change on changes often typified as spaghetti software. One needs a “clean sheet” to really realize the efficiencies of a new beginning. Though this virtually impossible and history shows us that we first have to go through a period of “creative destruction” before we can fully realize the potential of our investments.

A small dog and a large junk yard guard dog with bad attitude plus a recent delivery of long shelf life food, just in case.

My Dear Extended Family and Friends,

Home security is a matter to be considered by everyone. Home security is not the same as personal safety of home/personal defense. Think of home security as a passive endeavor and defense as active and usually more immediate undertaking. This article does not touch on home and personal safety and defense, but that subject needs to be addressed. This article is only an introduction to Home Security.

Home security varies significantly based on where you live and your resources. If you live in New York City your home security needs will be quite different than if you live off-grid in rural Montana or in Tanzania, Africa. What you need and what could occur depending on your home’s location varies significantly.

Most home invasions occur when no one is home, so the passive security which functions whether you are home or not is the best choice. No one being home makes a burglar feel safer upon entering your home. Make sure all doors and windows are not only securely locked when you are out, but also at night when you are sleeping.

HOME ENTRY AND ACCESS POINTS:

LOCKS AND DOORS:

Although locks truly only protect against honest people, locks are still important. Have good locks which can’t be disengaged with a plastic card or jimmied with a metal pry bar. This usually means deadbolts are a good choice. On the inside of exterior doors brackets can be placed on either side of a door which will accommodate a 2”x4” piece of lumber across the door. There are more aesthetically pleasing types of door jams available on the Internet, but the lumber jam is cheap and easy. This is a security back up for a lock to be used when you are home, or for doors not normally used as entry doors. If you have a door between your garage and your home, don’t forget to secure that door too. Also, locks don’t work if they aren’t used, so practice locking your doors and windows when you leave home, even if it is only for a few minutes. Peep hole lenses can be installed in solid doors, and the wide angle peep holes will give you a larger field of vision. Be sure that everyone who may answer the door can see through the peep hole. Solid metal doors are best, or metal clad doors, but even solid wooden doors are preferable to doors which contain glass windows, or have glass windows connected to them. If your doors have window glass on or near them, then the glass can be reinforced with film to help it be less able to be breached or shattered. Spare keys may be needed at some point or another and it is best to leave them with a neighbor who is trusted. If that is not an available option, then hide a key outside, but not near the entryway, and don’t tag the key for its lock location. Don’t forget to lock garage doors. Garage doors can provide an opportunity for a concealed access to your home if you have an attached garage.

WINDOWS:

Windows should be locked at all times, even when open. Ventilation is important, but bars which limit exterior access can be installed inside on the window frames. In cities these are used to keep children from opening windows too much and prevent children from falling out. Screens are no protection and even a cat sleeping up against a screen can push it out. Bars on windows in cities are an option, but for emergency egress, these bars either need to be specialized for opening from within or run only half way up the windows. Most fire codes in the USA require 5 square feet of available opening to be compliant, so check with your fire department before installing barriers of any kind.

Sliding glass doors are more like windows. They not only allow a large access, but they also have a large area from which the interior of your home can be viewed from the outside. These doors need to have a pole bar which fits into the track. Sliding glass doors are easily jimmied and can then be lifted off of the wheels which slide the door on the track. A blind over this door can be used when you are not at home to prevent peeping into your home and all windows are best to be covered when you are not at home for this reason.

ALARMS AND DETERRENTS:

Many households around the world have sophisticated alarm systems. Some are silent and notify authorities and private security companies and some are loud and noticed by everything outside in the vicinity and deter an invader from proceeding into your home. Intelligent security can be electronic with back up power and remote access, or a dog, and everything in between. If you already have a significant alarm system, this information isn’t aimed at you. This information is for the consideration of the average person who either can’t afford, can’t get or hasn’t considered home security.

DOGS:

A dog, large or small is a deterrent to a home invader. Dogs are territorial and most tend to guard their spaces. A large dog with a small dog is a good choice, if you are inclined toward dogs. A small dog will usually sound the alarm and the large dog will usually handle the guard duty. The greatest deterrent to burglary in the USA is a large, black dog. The Tibetans kept small dogs with their Mastiff’s for this purpose. Today, a barking chihuahua dodging, jumping and barking all the while around inside your home may not seem like much of a threat, but a home invader armed with a 45 ACP could probably unload it in the direction of the dog and never hit it.

Bear in mind that if a dog is your choice for intelligent home security that you must be prepared to feed it, care for it, train it, walk/exercise it, vaccinate it, etc. Dogs are great alarms, guardians and companions. Dogs require love in order to thrive. If you are considering a dog for home security, and you have room in your home, but not in your heart, a dog may not be the highest choice for you, and there are other alternatives. Most dogs desire to be family members, so consider your level of commitment carefully.

Electronic dogs are a great choice if you don’t want or can’t keep a dog. Dog alarms are easy to find on the Internet, and some are very good. Some will detect movement for 25 feet and through walls and floors. The motion sensitivity can be set and so can the volume of the dog alarm. Some will bark one time when motion is detected. If motion continues, three barks follow. Thereafter if motion doesn’t cease, the electronic dog will bark continuously as long as motion is detected. These range in price from $60 USD and up. A home invader only needs to hear a dog once to be deterred, and that is what is needed. Some dog alarms have sirens which follow the barking and other features, like remote activation, etc. so look online for what is available.

Dog bowls are a great deterrent. In general people don’t want to mess with a dog, especially a large dog. A large dog bowl placed outside will act like a sign which says, “A large dog lives here, keep out.” If you can’t have or don’t want a dog, consider a $3 investment in a large dog water bowl and keep it filled with water. If you have snow in winter, be sure to clear snow from around the bowl, or an absence of doggie paw prints will indicate that the bowl is only a prop.

SECURITY LIGHTS:

Security lights usually come on when motion is detected. These are a good choice, but are normally dependent on electric power to work. There are battery operated units, but then you have a problem if batteries are not available. These lights should be placed strategically around your home, and at a height where the bulbs cannot be easily removed or unscrewed. Burglars don’t want the light as it draws attention to a property and may illuminate their activity. Although security lights are great tools, if you live in a rural or remote area, having outside lights on all the time, may pose a different threat. Continuously on lights act like a beacon in attracting attention. Since no amount of darkness can blot out the light, a light in a remote area will act like a sign which says, “Hey, we have a home here and you can find us if you follow the light.” This can be a use of light which disadvantages you in a rural area by signaling where you are in the middle of nowhere when your home would otherwise be hidden.

Backup solar security lights are easy to obtain and the price of them has significantly reduced in the past few years. They aren’t as bright as electric flood lights, but they do the job. They will turn on when they sense motion, but most of the less expensive models only remain on for 15 seconds, and only stay on while there is motion. Be discriminating if you buy these lights for off grid applications or for back up for your electric security lights. Some of these lights do not turn off completely in the dark, but remain on at low lumens and become bright when motion is detected. Lights which remain on, no matter how dim, may present the problem addressed in the preceding paragraph. Most of these lights are LEDs and have long lasting bulbs and are durable and reliable in terms of weather as long as the solar panels are appropriately facing and angled to the sun and obstructions like snow are not permitted to occlude the solar panels. Use creative problem solving skills for their placement if you don’t have the right orientation for the sun. These can be attached to you home, to a fence, or on a post in order for them to serve your needs.

SIGNS:

Signs can serve a good purpose in securing your home. All manner of signs are available on the Internet. A “No Trespassing” sign is ok, but a “No Trespassing – Beware of Dog” sign is better. It provides more information and a warning. “CCTV” and “24 hour Surveillance” signs are good, but “Smile – You’re on Camera” may seem friendlier for the people you choose to visit your home and still provide the message you need. In addition, having a visible camera which can’t be easily seen works well in combination with signs.

Window stickers which indicate a security alarm is present at the property can be a good deterrent, but will not dissuade a professional burglar, since they are aware of these mass produced stickers and recognize them when they see them.

CAMERAS AND FAKE CAMERAS:

In this day and age, there are actual CCTV and other cameras everywhere. Real remote cameras are not very expensive. Many hunters us game-cams and these can just as easily be used for home security.

If you can’t afford a real remote camera, consider some of the many dummy cameras available on the Internet. You can get 4 of them for around $20. These are cheap and can do the job if you conceal the names on the cameras and don’t use the blinking red light which comes with most of them. Most real security cameras don’t have blinking red lights, and the lights can be somewhat of a giveaway that your blinking light is part of a phony camera. This will also save you money in maintaining batteries. Cameras, and camera dummies can be placed near the sign. Since actual cameras are so prevalent today, a would-be burglar will probably not want to risk it and seek a less threatening location to rob.

ALARMS:

In addition to, or as an alternative to a dog, there are many cheap and easy alarms. The cheapest and easiest alarms to install yourself without the need for tools can be obtained on-line or in dollar stores. These alarms come in two pieces with magnets on each side. If the magnets are separated (for example when a door or window is opened) a 100 db alarms sounds. (Google – window door alarms) These alarms run on watch batteries which are (usually) included when you buy them. These alarms can serve a few purposes. The first purpose is to surprise the burglar who will normally run from the sound. If you happen to have a dog, it will alert your dog that there is a potential intruder. If you are home, and don’t have a dog, it will alert you to prepare to defend yourself, protect your property and call for help. These alarms stick to either side of a door or window with double sided tape and are very cheap and easy to install. There are other cheap alarms which sense vibration on the surface of a door or window, but these are visible through glass and can also be set off by pets and are a nuisance if accessible to children.

Less conventional alarms for rural areas, remote areas and off the grid areas are Guinea fowl. These birds are amazingly loud when someone they don’t know or a predator approaches where they live. These birds are from Africa, but are kept around the world. They have some of the same drawbacks people have with dogs. They require shelter, protection from predators, food and water. The benefits of these birds is that the hens lay eggs during the Spring, Summer and Fall months. They can be consumed like chickens, and they are tick, weed, weed seed and bug eating machines. During months without snow, these birds don’t need a great deal of feed since they forage for much of their food on their own. They need to be trained to return to their coop at night. These birds have an eagle eye and keen hearing, so little escapes their notice. If interested in Guinea Fowl definitely do some reading up and research. Also, if you live in a populated area, check your local laws and also with your neighbors since these birds do not respect property lines and they fly.

MISCELLANEOUS DETERRENTS:

There is a lot you can do to deter people from looking at your home as a target for invasion. Lights which go on and off with timers are extremely useful. A radio on a timer is also a good deterrent. A burglar doesn’t want to enter a home where there is noise. Noise is a sign that someone is, or may be present. The sound of a radio alone will prevent a burglar from hearing if someone is present or someone is coming, so a radio and lights turning on and off when you are away from home can be important to your home security.

A TV simulator is a small box that projects moving and colored lights which can be seen from outside your home through windows and appear to be a functioning TV set. These simulators usually have various settings for on and off or be put on a timer, or both. Some will go on automatically at dusk and remain on for 4 or 8 hours. These features accommodate time changes for day and night. TV simulators sell for around $20 and are a good investment in your home security set up. The simulator must be located in the room where it can’t be seen, or the device will be seen for the prop it is.

CONCLUDING SUGGESTIONS:

If you live in a town, suburb or urban area, get to know your neighbors and form a neighborhood watch group. Your neighbors can be a valuable asset to your home security and you can provide the same services for them.

Be smart about your trash. A huge cardboard box outside that shows the picture of a 60 inch flat screen TV, home entertainment system, new high tech electronics or other valuable can be like a sign on your property for an invitation to a robbery. Cut up boxes and turn them inside out, bundle them and dispose of them.

Don’t leave ladders around the outside of your home. This could invite someone to gain access to your roof, or check your second floor windows for a point of entry. Don’t leave valuables outside which make people think you probably have valuables inside. Tools, grills, lawn mowers, etc. should be secured away in your garage or a shed and out of sight. Bicycles are a very popular item to steal and easy to take away. Keep bikes locked up when not in use. Even when using a bike, have a U-bar brace with a heavy lock and airline cable to secure it when in public.

Be sure every entry door has a bright working light for anyone who comes to your home at night. If you are in a neighborhood where houses are in view of each other, trim shrubs so there are no hiding places for prowlers and the area surrounding your home can be seen by neighbors. In a neighborhood you can consider photo cell lights which come on at dusk.

If you live in a rural area, plant multi-flora rose bushes, raspberries and other prickly shrubs and vines around your property which create an impassable barrier for humans and even some animals.

If you go on vacation or are not home for a period of time, be sure mail and newspaper do not accumulate and that your yard is maintained. Ask a neighbor to keep an eye on your home, or see if your community has a house alert list with your local police or law enforcement department.

This article is by no means exhaustive of home security measures and further research needs to be done by you. A lot depends on where you live and what your budget is. This article is a mere introduction to home security.

Take good care. Use good common sense. Assess your risks. Be Prepared. Secure your home.

The dark outlines of land had just come into view when the smuggler forced everyone into the sea.

Roymar Bello screamed. She was one of 17 passengers who had climbed onto the overloaded fishing boat with aging motors in July, hoping to escape Venezuela’s economic disaster for a new life on the Caribbean island of Curaçao.

Afraid of the authorities, the smuggler refused to land. Ms. Bello said he gruffly ordered her and the others into the water, pointing toward the distant shore. In the panic, she was tossed overboard, tumbling into the predawn blackness.

“Oh, don’t the days seem lank and long / When all goes right and nothing goes wrong, / And isn’t your life extremely flat / With nothing whatever to grumble at!”

— Gilbert and Sullivan

At this shank end of a shabby year, Americans still can be thankful: They don’t have the problem of nothing to grumble about.

As we steel ourselves for Thanksgiving’s obligatory routs and revels — does anyone really like turkey? or Uncle Ralph, who keeps turning up, like a bad penny? — Americans are cudgeling their brains for reasons to feel gratitude. So, herewith a call for everyone to temper gloom with lucidity. Things could be worse. And they often have been while Americans nevertheless were giving thanks.

It seems that even wood isn’t green or renewable enough anymore. The EPA has recently banned the production and sale of 80 percent of America’s current wood-burning stoves, the oldest heating method known to mankind and mainstay of rural homes and many of our nation’s poorest residents. The agency’s stringent one-size-fits-all rules apply equally to heavily air-polluted cities and far cleaner plus typically colder off-grid wilderness areas such as large regions of Alaska and the American West.

While EPA’s most recent regulations aren’t altogether new, their impacts will nonetheless be severe. Whereas restrictions had previously banned wood-burning stoves that didn’t limit fine airborne particulate emissions to 15 micrograms per cubic meter of air, the change will impose a maximum 12 microgram limit. To put this amount in context, EPA estimates that secondhand tobacco smoke in a closed car can expose a person to 3,000-4,000 micrograms of particulates per cubic meter.

Most wood stoves that warm cabin and home residents from coast-to-coast can’t meet that standard. Older stoves that don’t cannot be traded in for updated types, but instead must be rendered inoperable, destroyed, or recycled as scrap metal.

The Best Monetary Move Trump Could Make In His First 100 DaysNovember 24, 2016

The best legislative action, regarding monetary affairs, that the new Trump administration could take in its first 100 days in office would be: to eliminate all taxes and restrictions on transactions in gold and silver, which would allow them to be used freely as an alternative form of money.

This would allow people to use services like Bitgold without impediment, alongside the floating fiat dollar. They could use gold coins too if they wanted to.

This was the idea behind Ron Paul’s Competition in Currency Act of 2011, H.R. 1098. It has already been implemented on the state level: in 2011, Utah eliminated all state-level taxes on gold and silver, with the intent of allowing them to function again as legal money, as described in the U.S. Constitution Article 1 Section 10. Texas and Louisiana also eliminated state-level taxes in 2013. Another dozen or so states were reportedly considering similar moves. Nevertheless, the States are still subject to Federal-level taxes and restrictions, which limits the practical usefulness of these steps.

An upward breakout the long Treasury bonds will not just violently impact markets but rather nuclear impact them in a instant to the wide cease trading limits of today. Every OTC derivative ever written has am implied if not direct connection to any significant change in rates.

The implosion backwards on counter parties will be a super nova of money. The dollar will become the dwarf star that powers a black hole. 3.5% return now implies the death of the once global economy and that takes everything else with it. Why do people not understand such a simple fact, and call themselves experts. They are not talking heads on financial TV but rather bumbling asses.

If silver arrow partners invests for their clients according to its name you will lead more people than safety than Moses.

Following news that its Alzheimer’s drug has failed final stage trials, Eli Lilly stock is crashing this morning to 2 year lows. The ‘safe haven’, ‘paid-to-wait’ stock has tumbled almost 15% – erasing over 6 years of dividends, and sparking contagious selling across Biotech stocks.

As The FT reports, many analysts and investors had been expecting the medicine, Solanezumab, to show efficacy in patients suffering from mild dementia due to the disease, after previous trials showed it slowed the disease by roughly a third in early-stage patients, reports David Crow in New York.

However, the company said that while many of the results “directionally favoured the drug, the magnitudes of differences were small” and, as such, it has no plans to seek regulatory approval.