All down to the start I think, I don't think temp will come into it too much. Dirty air in S1 will kill any race pace advantage for Ferrari even if there is a turnaround but the Mercedes gap looks big enough to absorb it even without dirty air tbh.

_________________"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

The interesting difference is if a RBR (or both) can get good starts and get ahead - I don't think they can easily defend against the Merc in terms of straight line speed but it would be interesting. Hopefully it's Dan

_________________"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

If Bottas can get ahead of Ocon, he is in a position to control Vettels race. If Ferrari are 2nd at the start, then they will look to undercut Hamilton. But they won't be able to until they can pit him so he will come out ahead of Bottas.

If Bottas can get ahead of Ocon, he is in a position to control Vettels race. If Ferrari are 2nd at the start, then they will look to undercut Hamilton. But they won't be able to until they can pit him so he will come out ahead of Bottas.

Yeah that could be key. Did Bottas go through Q2 on the Softs?. Could be opportunity missed if he didn't as he could of completely ruined Seb's race if he was going long.

_________________"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

If Bottas can get ahead of Ocon, he is in a position to control Vettels race. If Ferrari are 2nd at the start, then they will look to undercut Hamilton. But they won't be able to until they can pit him so he will come out ahead of Bottas.

Yeah that could be key. Did Bottas go through Q2 on the Softs?. Could be opportunity missed if he didn't as he could of completely ruined Seb's race if he was going long.

Yes I believe Bottas got through Q2 on softs, he went out on SS but then bailed out of the lap IIRC.

If Bottas can get ahead of Ocon, he is in a position to control Vettels race. If Ferrari are 2nd at the start, then they will look to undercut Hamilton. But they won't be able to until they can pit him so he will come out ahead of Bottas.

Yeah that could be key. Did Bottas go through Q2 on the Softs?. Could be opportunity missed if he didn't as he could of completely ruined Seb's race if he was going long.

Yes I believe Bottas got through Q2 on softs, he went out on SS but then bailed out of the lap IIRC.

This is all very similar to what happened at Silverstone. Vettel really can't afford to get stuck behind one of the Red Bulls again.

If Bottas can get ahead of Ocon, he is in a position to control Vettels race. If Ferrari are 2nd at the start, then they will look to undercut Hamilton. But they won't be able to until they can pit him so he will come out ahead of Bottas.

Yeah that could be key. Did Bottas go through Q2 on the Softs?. Could be opportunity missed if he didn't as he could of completely ruined Seb's race if he was going long.

Yes I believe Bottas got through Q2 on softs, he went out on SS but then bailed out of the lap IIRC.

This is all very similar to what happened at Silverstone. Vettel really can't afford to get stuck behind one of the Red Bulls again.

True, I also can't see a way for him to win if Bottas has a decent start. Even if Vettel jumps Hamilton at the start it's likely to be a 2 stop according to Pirelli so Mercedes will just replicate what they did in Spain.

Better be a bloody good race anyway if I'm waking up for 6am

Last edited by Black_Flag_11 on Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Excerpts from the article below which is a statement by the stewards:"Article 31.6 [of the sporting regulations] prohibits "unnecessarily" impeding. Both drivers agreed in the hearing that had there not been the interaction of the other cars, Perez would not have been in the position he was and that the situation changed significantly and unavoidably when Gasly passed Perez.

"And therefore the stewards concluded that while Perez certainly impeded Stroll, he did not unnecessarily impede Stroll and therefore take no further action."

My prediction is Lewis winning from pole. Ricciardo to overtake Vettel on the run down to turn one. Bottas to overtake Ocon as well on the straight. The start of the second lap will look something like this:

HamiltonRicciardo VettelVerstappen BottasOcon......

Max will be harrasing Vettel for the first few laps which will allow Lewis and Dan to build a sizeable gap, with Lewis's gap to Dan increasing with each lap.

Max, Vettel and Bottas will fight it out for the third spot theough overtakes and pit stops and race will end in this order:

My prediction is Lewis winning from pole. Ricciardo to overtake Vettel on the run down to turn one. Bottas to overtake Ocon as well on the straight. The start of the second lap will look something like this:

HamiltonRicciardo VettelVerstappen BottasOcon......

Max will be harrasing Vettel for the first few laps which will allow Lewis and Dan to build a sizeable gap, with Lewis's gap to Dan increasing with each lap.

Max, Vettel and Bottas will fight it out for the third spot theough overtakes and pit stops and race will end in this order:

HamiltonRicciardoBottasVettelVerstappen ......

You heard it here first 😊

Vettel, Verstappen & Bottas will be starting on the dirty side, which may make a little difference. I see mild advantage to Ricciardo & even the Force India pair as they've been gaining places most of the times at starts.

If Bottas can get ahead of Ocon, he is in a position to control Vettels race. If Ferrari are 2nd at the start, then they will look to undercut Hamilton. But they won't be able to until they can pit him so he will come out ahead of Bottas.

Yeah that could be key. Did Bottas go through Q2 on the Softs?. Could be opportunity missed if he didn't as he could of completely ruined Seb's race if he was going long.

Yes I believe Bottas got through Q2 on softs, he went out on SS but then bailed out of the lap IIRC.

Cheers. Could be an interesting one then. Which as you say getting up at 6 it better be!.

_________________"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

My prediction is Lewis winning from pole. Ricciardo to overtake Vettel on the run down to turn one. Bottas to overtake Ocon as well on the straight. The start of the second lap will look something like this:

HamiltonRicciardo VettelVerstappen BottasOcon......

Max will be harrasing Vettel for the first few laps which will allow Lewis and Dan to build a sizeable gap, with Lewis's gap to Dan increasing with each lap.

Max, Vettel and Bottas will fight it out for the third spot theough overtakes and pit stops and race will end in this order:

HamiltonRicciardoBottasVettelVerstappen ......

You heard it here first 😊

Vettel, Verstappen & Bottas will be starting on the dirty side, which may make a little difference. I see mild advantage to Ricciardo & even the Force India pair as they've been gaining places most of the times at starts.

Ricciardo is not the greatest starter though. Vettel will be thankful that he otuqualified Max.

I believe if Hamilton wins tomorrow he can finish 2nd in all the remaining races.

He can drive with one hand for the rest of the season and still win.

If he wins tomorrow he can finish 3rd in all the remaining races.

Hamilton needs more than a DNF buffer though, if he has an engine go during a race. He will lose likely 25 points to Vettel, then at the next race Lewis will start 20th. That would be a near 40 point swing to Vettel in that worst case scenario. Its not over until he gets over 50 ahead for me.

"I'm very ashamed," Hasegawa told reporters after the session. "We didn't have an engine failure, we had some hydraulic leakage, which we can change if we find out [the cause] with enough time, but we couldn't, that's why we need to change the engine."

I think it is only 3 engines that have gone, but with the amount of other stuff failing it hardly matters. They were at the back of the grid due to these penalties so nothing to gain by not changing the engine for one 'slightly' improved.

Its the other way around with Renault, I think it is 14 engines gone. (with 3 teams so not as bad as it sounds)

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

So you want Vettel to take Hamilton out, the last race you was hoping Kimi would take Hamilton out, also do you think Vettel could do this without penalty, maybe you are right with this new let them race policy being used by the stewards, anyway not very sporting old chap.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

If they both fail to finish, that's just as bad for Vettel and Ferrari, neither finishing is the same result as Hamilton 1st Vettel 2nd; 2nd place will do for Hamilton here on in. Continuously insinuating that a driver should ram another off the road isn't going to endear you here either, most of us want to see a fair (as fair as it gets in F1) fight for the title.

_________________http://tsatr.mooo.comThe Sun and The Rain - The reluctant runner.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

If they both fail to finish, that's just as bad for Vettel and Ferrari, neither finishing is the same result as Hamilton 1st Vettel 2nd; 2nd place will do for Hamilton here on in. Continuously insinuating that a driver should ram another off the road isn't going to endear you here either, most of us want to see a fair (as fair as it gets in F1) fight for the title.

No it isn't. If Hamilton beats vettel tomorrow hell be 41points ahead, if they both dnf it stays at 34

Mercedes won't be beaten tomorrow on speed. The forum always get on their high horses but if I was Vettel I'd be mega aggressive into t1.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

Ignoring the obvious points of how distasteful your comment is no, that wouldn't be good for Vettel. That was would make it so that Hamilton could finish 2nd three times and 3rd once while Vettel wins all the remaining races and still take the title.

Vettel doesn't have a hope in hell of beating Hamilton now barring bad luck/errors IMO but his only realistic chance is to win every race left. He can't afford to not take at least 7 points more than Hamilton tomorrow.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

If they both fail to finish, that's just as bad for Vettel and Ferrari, neither finishing is the same result as Hamilton 1st Vettel 2nd; 2nd place will do for Hamilton here on in. Continuously insinuating that a driver should ram another off the road isn't going to endear you here either, most of us want to see a fair (as fair as it gets in F1) fight for the title.

No it isn't. If Hamilton beats vettel tomorrow hell be 41points ahead, if they both dnf it stays at 34

Mercedes won't be beaten tomorrow on speed. The forum always get on their high horses but if I was Vettel I'd be mega aggressive into t1.

I don't think the FIA will be tolerant deliberately aggressive driving with the intention of leading or mutually going out at Turn 1 in Suzuka since 1990.

Hamilton has less to lose from a collision than Vettel. Yes a double DNF is better for Vettel than coming second to Hamilton however the race can't be won at the first corner, it can only be lost.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

If they both fail to finish, that's just as bad for Vettel and Ferrari, neither finishing is the same result as Hamilton 1st Vettel 2nd; 2nd place will do for Hamilton here on in. Continuously insinuating that a driver should ram another off the road isn't going to endear you here either, most of us want to see a fair (as fair as it gets in F1) fight for the title.

No it isn't. If Hamilton beats vettel tomorrow hell be 41points ahead, if they both dnf it stays at 34

Mercedes won't be beaten tomorrow on speed. The forum always get on their high horses but if I was Vettel I'd be mega aggressive into t1.

I don't think the FIA will be tolerant deliberately aggressive driving with the intention of leading or mutually going out at Turn 1 in Suzuka since 1990.

Hamilton has less to lose from a collision than Vettel. Yes a double DNF is better for Vettel than coming second to Hamilton however the race can't be won at the first corner, it can only be lost.

It should be obvious by now, the FIA don't impose sanctions on anyone, least of all on Ferrari. Someone remind me when a driver got a DSQ for driving behaviour in F1.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

Every race that goes by now without Vettel closing the gap, is bad for Vettel. He needs to be thinking about winning this race. Crashing on purpose is for cheats and, more importantly, it's for the guy who has the points lead; not the guy who needs to catch up.

The forum always get on their high horses but if I was Vettel I'd be mega aggressive into t1.

That's exactly my point.

I'm not asking Seb to risk bother drivers lives for the sake of a double DNF. But he has to be very aggressive from the start, because beyond that the Mercedes will pull away and cruise to victory. His only hope of not seeing the gap increase is the start.

I think a double Hamilton/Seb DNF would be a good result for Ferrari right now. If Hamilton gets away from the start he wins. Seb must stop him.

Every race that goes by now without Vettel closing the gap, is bad for Vettel. He needs to be thinking about winning this race. Crashing on purpose is for cheats and, more importantly, it's for the guy who has the points lead; not the guy who needs to catch up.

Well it's pointless being cautious from the start because barring reliability issues if Hamilton leads after the first lap, the simulations say he'll pull more than enough of a gap to avoid under any strategy undercut.

So Seb must do something from the start. Yes what you say is true but this weekend it is Mercedes race to lose, so now Seb has to limit the damage. He can't see the gap grow even bigger.