The past knee surgeries concern me about Suh. I would be much more comfortable trading down and getting additional pick(s) and taking Okung, Berry, Haden or even Spiller provided its at #7 or later. I have a good feeling the Lions will have a chance to trade down if they choose to. I'm not buying they're in love with Suh at #2.

It's not really his theory. It belongs to the late New York Giants executive George Young. It's called the Planet Theory.

"Big, giant men that run fast?" Schwartz said while paraphrasing Young. "That are strong enough to play the run and athletic enough to play the pass? ... There's not many people like that walking the planet."

The scarcity of these athletic behemoths makes them valuable -- and consequently worth drafting very high. Even with the No. 2 overall pick. Even if history proves they aren't worth the money and resources.

Only four defensive tackles have been drafted in the top 10 over the past six years, and none has gone to a Pro Bowl.

If the Lions take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy with the No. 2 pick, either player would become the highest-drafted DT since Oakland picked Darrell Russell second in '97. Russell made two Pro Bowls before his career was plagued by substance abuse and he was done in Oakland after five seasons.

The last defensive tackle drafted No. 1? That's former Lion Dan Wilkinson. Cincinnati gave Big Daddy big bucks in 1994. How'd it turn out? Google his name, and the most common search phrase that pops up is "Dan Wilkinson bust."

Maybe it should be "buyer beware."

Numbers don't lie. Neither does history. Put the two together and they don't add up to an encouraging draft-day scenario for the Lions.

Most experts think the Lions will draft one of two defensive tackles -- Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy or Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh -- with the No. 2 pick April 22.

If the Lions do, they would make McCoy or Suh the highest-drafted defensive tackle since Oakland picked Darrell Russell No. 2 in 1997 and Cincinnati picked Ohio State's Dan Wilkinson No. 1 in 1994. Russell made two Pro Bowls before his career was derailed by drug problems, and Wilkinson played for 12 seasons but never lived up to his billing. And, frankly, so have few of the defensive tackles drafted in the top 10 over the past 20 years.

Since 1990, 18 defensive tackles have been among the first 10 players selected in each year's draft. Only six have gone to multiple Pro Bowls.

Why do so many defensive tackles land in Bustville? Is it a case of big money making big men a lot less motivated?

Bad history"I mean, there's a lot of things that can derail a player," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said at the NFL owners meetings last month. "I don't think 'get money' equals 'get fat.' There's been a lot of cases that that's not the case."

And a lot of cases that it has been the case. Schwartz would know since Corey Simon finished a once-promising career in 2007 with Tennessee while Schwartz was the Titans' defensive coordinator.

Philadelphia drafted Simon No. 6 in 2000, when Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo was a defensive assistant with the Eagles.

"Corey came in and started the very first game," Spagnuolo told reporters at the owners meetings. "Got a sack on his very first play of the game. But I think he made a difference, initially had a good impact on our defense."

Simon set Philly's rookie record with 9 1/2 sacks. But things were never the same after that. He made his only Pro Bowl in 2003 but contract problems ensued. He signed a five-year, $30-million deal as a free agent with Indianapolis in 2005, then reported to the Colts in the worst shape of his career and flopped, finishing with the Colts after two seasons.

Simon joined Schwartz in Tennessee the next year but played only four games. He announced his retirement after Week 7, citing severe arthritis. The book on Simon: the sixth pick, one Pro Bowl, three teams, six full seasons.

Then there was the infamous draft of 2003, when the Jets picked Dewayne Robertson of Kentucky fourth overall. New Orleans picked Georgia's Johnathan Sullivan sixth overall. Both were huge busts. Robertson had 16 sacks in six seasons. Sullivan managed only 1 1/2 sacks over three seasons.

Gil Brandt, a personnel executive for Dallas in 1960-89, admitted that drafting was far from an exact science, even though teams have tried to turn it into one with psychological testing and all sorts of evaluation methods.

"Sometimes we err on picks," said Brandt, now an NFL Network analyst. "But it's not that we erred on the ability of the player going into the draft. We erred on what would happen once he got 'X' number of dollars and would he continue to work hard to be successful?

"The guy that works almost as hard as he did is going to be a failure. The guy that realizes he has to work a lot harder than he did is going to be the success."

Exceptions to the rule?For the record, Brandt says McCoy and Suh border on the can't-miss ideal for draft picks.

"I think it's as close as you can come to that," he said. "Knowing the personalities of both of them, I think that neither one of them is going to stop working hard."

But even hard work doesn't ensure immediate success. The only two defensive tackles drafted in the top 10 in the past 20 years who dominated from the outset were five-time All-Pro Kevin Williams, picked No. 9 by Minnesota in 2003, and eight-time Pro Bowler Cortez Kennedy, the No. 1 pick by Seattle in 1990 (and third overall).

Even for an excellent defensive tackle like Bryant Young (drafted No. 7 overall in 1994), it took three seasons before he recorded double-digit sacks and made the first of his four Pro Bowls.

Brandt said technique and strength impede the development of young defensive tackles.

"I think the offensive linemen are so skilled now in getting their hand placement on you, it is what it is, and that it takes those interior guys some time to learn all the moves they need to have to get off the block," Brandt said. "And the other thing I think ... that strength is an important factor.

"And I think that guys that come out of college may think they're strong -- and they're strong by college standards. But when they meet those offensive guards that are so good and so strong, it's really hard for them initially to play and play well in the National Football League."

Performing under pressureBesides battling offensive linemen, highly drafted players also have to combat high expectations, according to Schwartz.

"When you draft somebody high, the expectations are that you are a finished product and you are ready to play right away," he said. "And that's not always the case. That doesn't mean that you're not a good player. That doesn't mean that you're not going to be a good player."

Schwartz cited team circumstances that may lead to a player's delayed development or production. If a player is drafted high, it's likely the team is not very good and will rely on him a lot more and a lot earlier than a team that drafts lower but has better surrounding players and won't require a rookie to carry the load.

With the Lions, who are still trying to fill crater-sized holes on their roster, the No. 2 overall pick will not have that luxury. The early expectations will be as high as the $167.7 million in guaranteed money, according to NFL.com, that went to last year's top-five draft picks.

"I think that if you pick at No. 2, I don't care if you're picking the D-tackle or you're picking the O-tackle, you're expecting them to come in and play early," NFL Network analyst Charles Davis said. "That's just too high of a draft pick to think that you'd want to groom them. ...

"Nowadays they want you to hit the field and go. They don't want to waste any time. The money's too big and with free agency and all that, too, you want that value now."

Despite all that, I would still draft Suh and not even think twice about it.

_________________

April 11th, 2010, 10:32 am

FEEDINGmyLIONScheese

Junior Varsity

Joined: August 20th, 2005, 8:16 pmPosts: 189Location: Battle Creek

I am willing to bet every QB in the leauge has seen that vidio and is praying he dont land in there division lol

April 11th, 2010, 11:20 am

buell17

Afghan Allstar

Joined: January 9th, 2006, 1:16 pmPosts: 564Location: San Diego, CA

Of the 14 QBs drafted in the top 10 over the past decade, only 4 of those have been to multiple pro bowls. At least 3 of those are widely considered busts, and strong cases can be made for others.

Does this mean that you should stop drafting QB's in the top 10? Hell no. You take the best guy on your board. Any body can be a bust. It's a gamble no matter who you draft.

_________________So many nights I just dream of the ocean, God I wish I was sailing again.

April 11th, 2010, 12:10 pm

Taug107

Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

Joined: December 30th, 2005, 6:55 pmPosts: 732Location: Connecticut

Someone has to love this guy enough to move up to #2 to get em. Gotta get a lot in return cause this guys going to be a beast.

_________________Rebuilding since 1957.

April 11th, 2010, 5:13 pm

kdsberman

League MVP

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pmPosts: 3485Location: Saginaw, MI

Yeah I definetly think its a no-brainer. We have to draft this guy if hes available at #2. And for some very odd reason he turns out to be a bust, well..I guess we learned a valueable lesson about how to handle the hype of one "cant miss" player. I definetly dont think he'll bust though. I think he can come in and make in instant impact on this defense.

Based on the latest, most-revealing projections from general manager Martin Mayhew, the Lions' plan for the No. 2 overall pick is taking shape. I don't mean to kill the suspense -- SPOILER ALERT! -- but it's pretty darn obvious what should happen.

What will happen, though? Well, reading between the blurred lines, it's clear the Lions either will draft Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Russell Okung or Trent Williams, or trade down for other picks, or deal the pick for Phoenix Coyotes cruncher Shane Doan, or use one of those Ping-Pong ball machines and select whichever player pops into the tube.

All options are open, that's what Mayhew said Thursday, with a slight smile.

Hey, I'm fine with that, as long as the top option ends up being Nebraska's dominant defensive tackle Suh. No need to overthink this, folks. I'm even fine with Mayhew playing painfully coy, revealing little. He swears no decision has been made, even though practically every mock draft has the Lions taking Suh. He also said he expects to keep the pick, barring a tempting last-minute offer.

Mayhew might still be new at this, but at least he seems ultra-confident in what he's doing. That means changing lots of things, including (hopefully) that horrid defense, including the way the Lions conduct business.

"We don't have to worry about something leaking out, because we haven't decided anything," Mayhew said. "We're keeping our options open. I don't know how it helps us to disclose everything we plan on doing."

When he was promoted following the long-awaited ouster of his boss, Matt Millen, Mayhew said the team had done too much talking for too many years. Judge him on his actions, not his words, that's what he kept saying.

Give the guy credit -- the actions are pretty good, so far. Judging by his first draft, which gave coach Jim Schwartz a starting quarterback, a starting tight end, a starting safety and a starting linebacker, Mayhew just might know what he's doing.

In an enviable positionI won't say the No. 2 pick is foolproof with two prime defensive tackles available, but the Lions have stumbled into a very nice spot, even if nobody makes a legitimate trade offer. Suh and McCoy are tremendous prospects, as good a tandem ever to enter the NFL at the same time. The Rams' apparent choice of Sam Bradford at No. 1 -- and the Redskins' acquisition of Donovan McNabb -- lessens the likelihood of a quarterback-starved team moving up.

I know there's a theory Mayhew and Schwartz will look at the bigger picture and choose Okung, the big offensive tackle from Oklahoma State. It's a position that can provide 10 years of productivity, justifying the financial investment. Could the Lions use an offensive tackle? Oh yes.

Best player fills a needBut Suh is too good to pass up, and the Lions' defense is much, much too bad to pass him up. Mayhew is sticking to his best-player-available approach, and the great thing about that is, the best player also happens to fill a huge need.

Suh and McCoy aren't classic pass rushers, but I don't care. I'd just like to see a Lion spend any amount of time in an opposing backfield. In a welcome moment of frankness, Mayhew even admitted it'd be hard to mess up the pick.

He made the comparison to 2003, when the Lions drafted Michigan State receiver Charles Rogers No. 2, aware of his flaws. The choice Thursday night should be far more rewarding.

"It's never foolproof," Mayhew said. "But the players there now are solid, off-the-field character guys, relatively healthy guys, high-effort guys, very intrinsically motivated type of guys."

Here's another clue how touted they are: The Lions are demanding a lot in trade, and that's why Mayhew believes it won't happen.

"The most important thing is to get appropriate value," he said. "We have had talks about the pick, but I don't think we'll get something that's gonna be appealing enough to us."

So the Lions keep their options open, just as they did last draft, when Mayhew surprised by taking tight end Brandon Pettigrew in the first round, after grabbing Matthew Stafford No. 1. Later, he added defenders Louis Delmas and DeAndre Levy.

No need to shock anyone with this pick. A team that desperately needs defense can't turn down rare defensive talent. Explore options, sure. But the choice shouldn't end up being difficult, no matter how much, or how little, anyone says.

The Great Wojodamus has spoken! Suh it is!

_________________

April 16th, 2010, 4:26 pm

CalvintheBeast

Junior Varsity

Joined: March 30th, 2009, 11:55 pmPosts: 183

I'm glad to see the Lions are at least apparently demanding a lot in trade. That's the *only* reason I would like to see them trade down for: someone mortgaging the proverbial farm for that #2 pick.

April 16th, 2010, 4:48 pm

kdsberman

League MVP

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pmPosts: 3485Location: Saginaw, MI

CalvintheBeast wrote:

I'm glad to see the Lions are at least apparently demanding a lot in trade. That's the *only* reason I would like to see them trade down for: someone mortgaging the proverbial farm for that #2 pick.

I agree. I say we either trade for a crap load, or we stay put and take the best player in the draft (i dont care what the analysts say), Ndamukong Suh.

Im getting sick and tired of hearing about what "history has shown" or what the "probabilities" are.

Either we rip someone off for the #2 pick, or we stay and take him.

April 16th, 2010, 4:55 pm

m2karateman

RIP Killer

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pmPosts: 10398Location: Where ever I'm at now

CalvintheBeast wrote:

I'm glad to see the Lions are at least apparently demanding a lot in trade. That's the *only* reason I would like to see them trade down for: someone mortgaging the proverbial farm for that #2 pick.

My only problem with that is if the Lions are expecting too much.

For instance, if a team like the NY Giants, who have limited needs, but one of them is for a defensive tackle, decides to try and trade up. They offer Detroit their #15, #46, plus their first rounder next year and a conditional mid round pick in 2012. Should the Lions turn them down?

I'd say no way. Take the trade.

Back when the Lions had the #2 pick and ended up taking Calvin, the Broncos offered a boat load of picks for the right to move up to take CJ.
I believe the offer was their #21 pick, their second, fourth, plus their 2008 first and fourth rounder.....something like that. It was an insane offer. The Lions should have taken it.....and were going to, but Millen pulled the plug on the deal at the last minute.

Now, in hindsight it was better the Lions didn't. CJ is one of the very few good players drafted by Millen, and he likely would have screwed up royally with all those picks. But the fact is, a trade offer like that doesn't come along every day, and the more picks you have the better your chances of hitting on a player worthwhile that can help the team (unless you are named Matt Millen, then you just suck).

April 16th, 2010, 5:22 pm

kdsberman

League MVP

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pmPosts: 3485Location: Saginaw, MI

m2karateman wrote:

CalvintheBeast wrote:

For instance, if a team like the NY Giants, who have limited needs, but one of them is for a defensive tackle, decides to try and trade up. They offer Detroit their #15, #46, plus their first rounder next year and a conditional mid round pick in 2012. Should the Lions turn them down?

I'm glad to see the Lions are at least apparently demanding a lot in trade. That's the *only* reason I would like to see them trade down for: someone mortgaging the proverbial farm for that #2 pick.

My only problem with that is if the Lions are expecting too much.

For instance, if a team like the NY Giants, who have limited needs, but one of them is for a defensive tackle, decides to try and trade up. They offer Detroit their #15, #46, plus their first rounder next year and a conditional mid round pick in 2012. Should the Lions turn them down?

I'd say no way. Take the trade.

I would say that that offer would be in the area of ripping the other team off.

April 17th, 2010, 9:56 am

m2karateman

RIP Killer

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pmPosts: 10398Location: Where ever I'm at now

BillySims wrote:

m2karateman wrote:

CalvintheBeast wrote:

I'm glad to see the Lions are at least apparently demanding a lot in trade. That's the *only* reason I would like to see them trade down for: someone mortgaging the proverbial farm for that #2 pick.

My only problem with that is if the Lions are expecting too much.

For instance, if a team like the NY Giants, who have limited needs, but one of them is for a defensive tackle, decides to try and trade up. They offer Detroit their #15, #46, plus their first rounder next year and a conditional mid round pick in 2012. Should the Lions turn them down?

I'd say no way. Take the trade.

I would say that that offer would be in the area of ripping the other team off.

Exactly why I say I wonder if Mayhew might be expecting too much for the pick. I'm not really criticizing him about it. If he wants to stay at #2 to take Suh, then fine. Make the price high and see if someone bites. But don't make it so high that teams won't make offers that are reasonable enough that they should strongly consider pulling the trigger. Suh is a great player, but this team needs much more than just him to start approaching respectable levels.