These new markets are interesting in that they diverge from the many “who will win the election” bets in that they are about which of the leaders will still be in place after the dust settles at the end of the year – long after May’s votes are counted.

There is of course the added complexity of the possibility of a second autumn election[currently 4/1] if there is no clear result – Fixed Term Parliament Act allowing.

Effectively you are betting on how well the leaders do, specifically will they do well enough even if they are not outright victorious, to protect themselves from being toppled by their own parties?