andrewlee10

"Light by the door", can you explain this? FWIW the 1rst PF70 sold for $518 US, this seems a little high IMO.With all the "created buzz" from tainted sources and eBay's lack of transparency I have questions about this sale. Who knows, is the box that special or is it whale season...

I wish not to cited here the reason of less PF70 because worry many garden lover will shot me down immediately.

It will take a few months before we can be sure of the grading pattern of the silver medal based on NGC and PCGS statistics. However, if what you are saying is true it means that any PF70 medal that reaches the market could sell like hot potatoes. I am watching the market and learning as I go along!

Numismatic Reality: PF70 and MS70 coins and medals disappear from general circulation into "strong hands" and rarely reappear. Once in a while you come across one but it will be very expensive by then.

It will take a few months before we can be sure of the grading pattern of the silver medal based on NGC and PCGS statistics. However, if what you are saying is true it means that any PF70 medal that reaches the market could sell like hot potatoes. I am watching the market and learning as I go along!

Numismatic Reality: PF70 and MS70 coins and medals disappear from general circulation into "strong hands" and rarely reappear. Once in a while you come across one but it will be very expensive by then.

Not exactly. If you have more 70s than 68s, a 70 is not such a big deal.

Be careful when applying this concept of conditional/grading rarity from circulating coin collection to proof coins and medals. With circulating coins, the scale is a pyramid, with a large base and a small top. With proof coins, more often than not it is an inverted pyramid. Conditional rarity becomes a non-rarity if there are more 69s/70s than 67s/68s.

Not exactly. If you have more 70s than 68s, a 70 is not such a big deal.

Be careful when applying this concept of conditional/grading rarity from circulating coin collection to proof coins and medals. With circulating coins, the scale is a pyramid, with a large base and a small top. With proof coins, more often than not it is an inverted pyramid. Conditional rarity becomes a non-rarity if there are more 69s/70s than 67s/68s.

I am going by impressions proffered by andrewlee10; if his assertions pan out that means there will be much fewer PF70s than other grades in the Silver Mountain Resort medals. In that case PF70 silver medals will be rare.

In the larger picture this relativity is maintained whether the base of the pyramid is in the hundreds or millions. I just did a search for "2014 China 1oz Gold Panda Coin Ms70" and I got one hit. Yes, the wider the base of the pyramid the greater the demand for the coin at the top of the pyramid. But a high grade coin will always command a premium if there are few of them at the top of the pyramid.

So it's whale season. Time for me to withdraw from the pool and watch the "mintage trap" at work.

Yes, that Mintage Trap! Perhaps we should take more time to characterize this cautionary phrase.

Coin collection is subject to similar considerations that apply to the general art world. Therefore, exclusivity or near exclusivity makes coins more attractive to collectors in addition to all other desired qualities. If the existing number of a particularly desirable coin is not enough to go around then the price goes up in the hope that someone who is less emotionally/strategically attached to the coin will give it up for good money.

Up till relatively recently low mintage was usually due to accidental events in a coin's history. We have heard tales of how proposed mintages were not reached, how minted coins were melted, how most of a minted set were lost or not accounted for, how most coins in a series were mishandled leading to quality degradation, how a trial batch of coins did not lead to further mint runs, and so on and so forth, the incredulous stories abound.

The situation is different for recent low mintage coin series; the number of coins is planned to be small even before being minted. While a strategic objective for minting small could be to increase demand, we also cannot ignore the relatively small population of MCC buyers. This small population is examplified by how long it took for the 2014 silver and copper baby panda medals (200 mintage each) to become less available on eBay despite the publicity, but they are still cropping up from time to time. When planning a mintage you have to produce just enough to sell out within 6-9 months, for example, (my own proposal).

China has always been prolific in the number and variety of coins produced over the ages. It is not surprising that in modern times and with opening up to private enterprise more coins and medals are being minted, and in greater variety, with compensating low mintage.

What makes a specific low mintage coin/medal fail or not do very well may have to do more with other intrinsic and extrinsic factors than with the low mintage itself. Thus a coin that is poorly designed, shoddily produced, not well marketed, gets entangled in adversarial numismatic politicking, has an unreasonably high product launch price tag and lacks uniqueness/message, will most likely not do well.

A low mintage coin/medal that excels in all of the above criteria and more to boot has a higher degree of certainty of being desired by more buyers than was minted. Just like the expanding universe, the customer base for MCC continues to grow as more people become more aware and interested in collecting.

I am going by impressions proffered by andrewlee10; if his assertions pan out that means there will be much fewer PF70s than other grades in the Silver Mountain Resort medals. In that case PF70 silver medals will be rare.

In the larger picture this relativity is maintained whether the base of the pyramid is in the hundreds or millions. I just did a search for "2014 China 1oz Gold Panda Coin Ms70" and I got one hit. Yes, the wider the base of the pyramid the greater the demand for the coin at the top of the pyramid. But a high grade coin will always command a premium if there are few of them at the top of the pyramid.

I have not heard of any word about few 70s for Mountain Resort silver proof. The antique silver has very low grades, around 64.

I have not heard of any word about few 70s for Mountain Resort silver proof. The antique silver has very low grades, around 64.

Most of us will have to rely on NGC/PCGS grading statistics. This will include grading done in China as well as in the rest of the world for these medals.

As I understand it the method used for making antique coins reduces their grading score. PF64 is rather low but more representative statistics for the whole population of minted medals will take more time to accrue at the grading companies' web sites.

I have not heard of any word about few 70s for Mountain Resort silver proof. The antique silver has very low grades, around 64.

I am hearing 1rst batch had problems (hairlines, spots etc) it was suggested the poor quality medals were sent out first with the better quality being held back. Either way, if $500 is what a PF70 costs then I will sell all mine and forget about the Classical Garden series.

Logged

barsenault

Regarding the PF70's, and whether or not the 500.00 is whale price, I'm trying to think thru this one logically. In the case of proof version, which I have, if many of them look like mine, I HIGLY doubt they will score a 68...that is a big if. Don't get me wrong. The details are stunning. The quality is HORRIBLE. Let's just be honest. I'm sure I'm not the only one who received such a shoddy piece of work. Again, please don't hear me say that the series is bad. Or that I don't like them. I think they are amazing works or art. NO QUESTION. But seriously go back and look at my pictures. You'll see black spots, and a white sea of something on the proof side. Again, I suspect I'm not the only one who received this quality. Or maybe I was the special target, wouldn't surprise me. Just having fun, in case someone thinks I'm serious.

Okay, all this to say, if I paid 230.00 (going price on ebay - cheapest), and I took the gamble to package, ship to NGC, and paid the fee, and it happened to score a PF70, which I'm suspecting there won't be a 'ton of PF70's', but TIME will prove me right or wrong, then why is 500.00 a 'whale price?' If there are only a few, and demand for the few is high for collectors to target PF70's for the collection, I would think $500.00 is a reasonable price yes?

After all, I would think someone paying this price today is not selling tomorrow, but is a long-term holder; and many years down the road, I suspect that this 70 will be a lot higher than 500.00 (if in fact there remains a 'few' available). But, if what Frank says is true about the Moutain Resort, that there turns out to be more 70's and 69's vs. 68/67, then these may not be as rare, and perhaps 500.00 is a bit high? But the person paying 500.00 today I'm sure has thought about those things, yes? No one is forcing him/her to buy it for 500.00. They have their reasons for doing so. I don't think that should disuade anyone from continuing onward in their collection of this series? Should it? Just trying to understand is all. Thanks much.

I am hearing 1rst batch had problems (hairlines, spots etc) it was suggested the poor quality medals were sent out first with the better quality being held back. Either way, if $500 is what a PF70 costs then I will sell all mine and forget about the Classical Garden series.

I have come across a lot of very highly priced MCCs. I am talking 5 figures for 1oz silver coin/medal. Many of them are out of my price range. Even for those I can afford I still meditate to gain an understanding for why such happens. Difficult to understand at times. I will continue to analyse these things as I come across them. My hope is that the rate of price increase should be slower but I can't force anyone to sell at a price that is comfortable for me. I don't know what his/her acquisition costs and other overheads are. Given free market principles the sale price of MCC is likely to float to mutually acceptable levels. I hear it was real crazy just a few years ago, with a certain medal set reputed to have sold for $25,000 before the bottom of the market opened up and things went crashing.

Regarding the PF70's, and whether or not the 500.00 is whale price, I'm trying to think thru this one logically. In the case of proof version, which I have, if many of them look like mine, I HIGLY doubt they will score a 68...that is a big if. Don't get me wrong. The details are stunning. The quality is HORRIBLE. Let's just be honest. I'm sure I'm not the only one who received such a shoddy piece of work. Again, please don't hear me say that the series is bad. Or that I don't like them. I think they are amazing works or art. NO QUESTION. But seriously go back and look at my pictures. You'll see black spots, and a white sea of something on the proof side. Again, I suspect I'm not the only one who received this quality. Or maybe I was the special target, wouldn't surprise me. Just having fun, in case someone thinks I'm serious.

Okay, all this to say, if I paid 230.00 (going price on ebay - cheapest), and I took the gamble to package, ship to NGC, and paid the fee, and it happened to score a PF70, which I'm suspecting there won't be a 'ton of PF70's', but TIME will prove me right or wrong, then why is 500.00 a 'whale price?' If there are only a few, and demand for the few is high for collectors to target PF70's for the collection, I would think $500.00 is a reasonable price yes?

After all, I would think someone paying this price today is not selling tomorrow, but is a long-term holder; and many years down the road, I suspect that this 70 will be a lot higher than 500.00 (if in fact there remains a 'few' available). But, if what Frank says is true about the Moutain Resort, that there turns out to be more 70's and 69's vs. 68/67, then these may not be as rare, and perhaps 500.00 is a bit high? But the person paying 500.00 today I'm sure has thought about those things, yes? No one is forcing him/her to buy it for 500.00. They have their reasons for doing so. I don't think that should disuade anyone from continuing onward in their collection of this series? Should it? Just trying to understand is all. Thanks much.

Sorry to hear that the particular coin you got does not look good. Obviously I am not going to joke that this was picked specially for you!!!!!! I have not yet sent mine for grading so I'll have to wait until then to determine what their quality is like. I don't have the expertise to evaluate coins except when it is grossly abnormal (face rubs etc). Ultimately, NGC/PCGS statistics will give an idea of what the grading results are on a larger scale.

Yes the medal design looks good and unique. It adds to the collection of classical garden medals. I have been more interested in the history, design characteristics of the actual garden showcased by the medal and real life stories behind each of those medals. Yes I would like to score some high quality medals but I am trying to make this hobby (and ??investment) something I continue to enjoy doing and not stressing over. I have to tell you that numismatics, especially as relates to MCC, has brought a lot of welcome interest/distraction and sense of community to me. I regularly tune in most days to find out what's happening and it is NEVER dull around here!

You've been active in this area earlier than me and you have more insight and experience into gyrations of MCC pricing. I am just watching and learning as we go along. Bullion pricing is at an all time low. How much further down will it go? When will it bounce back? What effect will that exact on non-bullion coins and medals? At present these coins and medals seem to be on the up and up while bullion prices stagnate.

Anyway, I am sure we shall get updates from reliable sources in China. Soon we should have enough medals percolating in the West to allow us make independent judgements of the quality profile of these medals.

Bob, the black spots are rubs, either from shipping due to the loose capsule, or from the minting process due to the extremely high pressure needed to strike the high relief. The sandblasted high points on the dies get quickly worn out, showing the smooth surface/black spots. The Old Summer Palace/Yuanmingyuan had this problem, too, especially on the animal figure heads. See the picture below. I think grading companies ignored them. I don't grade these medals, and can live with such imperfections. That is not shoddy work, though. You are lucky if you can get the first few strikes which do not have such black spots.

I am not sure what to think about the haze on the wave side. I don't see such haze on the pictures from anyone else, or from the 8 pieces that went through my hand. Maybe it is a lighting effect?

barsenault

Hey Frank and KOT, thanks for the feedback and insight...I really do appreciate it. Also, I don't mean the entire mintage is shoddy, but mine is definitely shoddy. As I'll show you in detail here in a few minutes. But as I said, and firmly believe, it doesn't take away from the artistic beauty of the medal...hopefully this shoddy piece sent to me was on purpose and on target, because I truly would not want anyone to get it. I'm a pretty easy going guy, and just let it roll off my shoulders. I'll still grade it, and conserve it, for kicks. Probably not the best person to send, however, as I love my up close and person pictures and videos. okay, okay, just having fun with KOT.