There was a substantial increase in youth vaping prevalence beginning in about 2014. Time trend analyses showed that the decline in past 30-day smoking prevalence accelerated by two to four times after 2014. Indicators of more established smoking rates, including the proportion of daily smokers among past 30-day smokers, also decreased more rapidly as vaping became more prevalent.

The inverse relationship between vaping and smoking was robust across different data sets for both youth and young adults and for current and more established smoking. While trying electronic cigarettes may causally increase smoking among some youth, the aggregate effect at the population level appears to be negligible given the reduction in smoking initiation during the period of vaping's ascendance.

November 22, 2018

My colleagues at UCSF, Georgia State University, and Stanford submitted this comment to the FDA on PMI's MRTP application for IQOS. The tracking number is 1k2-96n7-7zl0 and a PDF of the comment is available here.

November 17, 2018

As part of its ongoing research into to the epidemic use of JUUL by American youth, the Stanford Research into Tobacco Advertising (SRITA) project is comprehensively documenting the company’s promotional activities. This is a great resource to support research, advocacy, and policymaking that is freely available to everyone.

November 5, 2018

In response to exploding youth use of e-cigarettes, led by Juul, the FDA has been talking tough but doing little. The statement issued on October 31, 2018, by FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb on his meetings with industry suggests that he is falling into their old “youth smoking prevention” trap, by “welcoming voluntary steps by companies” and viewing their proposals to address youth e-cigarette use as “thoughtful.” The path he is following promises to make FDA complicit in promoting the e-cigarette epidemic.

He and the FDA should start with this overall conclusion from Chapter 5: “The tobacco companies’ activities and programs for the prevention of youth smoking have not demonstrated an impact on the initiation or prevalence of smoking among young people.”

November 5, 2018

Alameda, CA is considering an ordinance to license tobacco retailers and prohibit the sale of flavored tobacco products. Retailers are arguing that chewing tobacco should be exempted becuase theh claim the average age of those that chew is 40. I asked my colleague Ben Chaffee about this and here is what he had to say:

While smokeless (dip and chew) has been traditionally been a product for older adults, the last several decades have seen a major shift toward use by younger consumers (and marketing to them).

Smokeless tobacco consumption in the United States overall has been on the rise. {Bhattacharyya N. Trends in the use of smokeless tobacco in United States, 2000-2010. Laryngoscope 2012;122(10):2175-8; Chang JT, Levy DT, Meza R. Trends and Factors Related to Smokeless Tobacco Use in the United States. Nicotine Tob Res 2016;18(8):1740-8; Lipari RN. Trends in Smokeless Tobacco Use and Initiation: 2002 to 2012. The CBHSQ Report. Rockville (MD): Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (US); 2013.}