One more important note. The Allies have 1300 political points and I've been torn between buying a 1200-PP Australian division at Perth to help with the Exmouth operation or towards buying 41st USA Div. (1900 PP) which just arrived at Capetown. I'm almost certain to go with 41st Div. on the belief that Burma is more important and that 41st will be more effective than would the Aussie division at Exmouth.

My .02 I agree with this CR ... The US presence in Burma has multiplicative affects including the ability to absorb destroyed squads vs the Commonwealth units, as well as firepower density implications critical to addressing stacking limits in Burma. I find 2 US divisions and some armor is the ticket to break certain key Burmese jungle hexes....Time is of the essence here as once the IJ have a chance to reinforce and dig in .. you might be in a Verdun situation .. but if this IJ error is seized upon now .. once Burma unfolds the IJ will be a puppet reacting to the Allies .. On teh other hand Oz can be dealt with accordingly at any time ..

Carnavon: The CA bombardment TF proves highly effective, damaging and destroying many aircraft on the ground - including lots of Nells - and basically shutting down the airfield. The Allied deliberate attack comes off at 13:14, doesn't touch forts, and destroys 27 enemy units to 0 for the Allies. Now my two units have disruption in the 70s, so they'll rest a few days. The Marine tank unit will arrive tomorrow and attack the day after. The carriers will move WSW of Carnavon.

Oz: This operation is losing steam. Things are dragging out and proving tougher than anticipated. Once Carnavon falls, that big airfield in close proximity to Exmouth might breath new life into things, but I'm adjusting my expectations a bit. John's getting enough time to gather a counterpunch, so I want to err on the side of caution. (I'm mulling over having my carriers fly a ground attack at Exmouth to disrupt the enemy there, but not sure I want to do that with sorties currently at 73%.)

Bay of Bengal: Enemy mainly quiet - at least the part that I can see. Ramree Island airfield is slowly progressing to level one. Akyab isn't making much progress on port building or airfield either. Cox's Bazaar, Imphal and Dimapur are progressing nicely.

China: Looking good. John tried an extremely low odds attack at Chengte a few days ago resulting in more than 100 IJA squads destroyed. He's bombing this base heavily and must think he's making progress, when in fact my units all have 0/3 disruption/fatigue. He did drop forts from 4 to 3, but the act was at something like 1:20 or 1:30 odds.

Pacific: A stout part of the KB remains parked at Jaluit, with more BB bombardments of both Tarawa and Luganville. So John hasn't stripped his main force yet to visit Oz or Bay of Bengal.

Victory Points: For the first time since the opening bell, the Japanese lead in "Army Loss" points fell under 10:1. Early in the war, a 10:1 or better lead for Japan seems normal in my games, so this is signficant, especially considering the recent fall of Clark Field. The Allies have more than a 1,000 plane lead in enemy aircraft destroyed. And Japan has fallen under 4:1 ratios in numbers of ships sunk and in points for ships sunk. Again, that's somewhat surprising considering the Allies have lost two slow BBs in recent weeks. Overall, Japan leads 21.9k to 10.1k, which is considerably less than I usually see at this still-early date in the game.

For the first time since the opening bell, the Japanese lead in "Army Loss" points fell under 10:1. Early in the war, a 10:1 or better lead for Japan seems normal in my games, so this is signficant, especially considering the recent fall of Clark Field. The Allies have more than a 1,000 plane lead in enemy aircraft destroyed. And Japan has fallen under 4:1 ratios in numbers of ships sunk and in points for ships sunk. Again, that's somewhat surprising considering the Allies have lost two slow BBs in recent weeks. Overall, Japan leads 21.9k to 10.1k, which is considerably less than I usually see at this still-early date in the game.

I do think this is your first shot at the Yamamoto scenario correct? So I am not sure a direct comparison with Scenario #2 can be made as an example. But .. I do think it is significant in comparing your strategic plan overall context.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Victory Points: For the first time since the opening bell, the Japanese lead in "Army Loss" points fell under 10:1. Early in the war, a 10:1 or better lead for Japan seems normal in my games, so this is signficant, especially considering the recent fall of Clark Field. The Allies have more than a 1,000 plane lead in enemy aircraft destroyed. And Japan has fallen under 4:1 ratios in numbers of ships sunk and in points for ships sunk. Again, that's somewhat surprising considering the Allies have lost two slow BBs in recent weeks. Overall, Japan leads 21.9k to 10.1k, which is considerably less than I usually see at this still-early date in the game.

If he barely gets 2:1 odds in early-mid 1942, it bodes ill for the rest of his game. He *should* be hitting his high water mark about now, is this all he can muster in terms of a ratio?

I'd say you're not in danger of a January 1, 1943 Japanese autovictory, Canoerebel.

I definitely vote for buying 41st Div. Burma is more decisive than Oz. As for NW Oz, turn it into a big feint. Seize Carnarvon and threaten Exmouth with local forces. Get John all worked up while you transition over to the offensive in Burma, making sure to feint in NOPAC just as winter begins and ends. Be-Devil him in Burma for months then get Essexes and, assuming he never re-takes the Gilberts, start the Death Star tour of Asia there while the Commonwealth takes the opportunity of KB's absence to undercut Burma at Moulmein. Call it War Plan Tornado in honor of your recent escape from Mother Nature.

John couldn't flip a turn last night and was out and about early today, so it's a planning day for me. The Allies have units prepping for "down the road" in each theater. In this post, I want to focus primarily on NoPac, but here's a general overview:

Burma Theater: Big armies prepping for Toungoo and Rangoon, with one UK division prepping for Moulmein. Western Oz: Several units prepping for Exmouth one one Aussie division prepping for Broome (though I'll likely change that). Coral Sea: Large number of Allied units prepping for Milne Bay and adjacent islands; smaller but growing army prepping for Noumea. CenPac: Reinforcing units prepping for Gilberts with some units prepping for Baker Island. NoPac: The Allies intend to invade the Aluetians in a major way. I think John is focusing on the Adak to Umnak line, so the Allies are focusing further west - the isles from Adak to Attu. Following his campaign to recover the Gilberts (which I think will succeed), John is likely to vector his carriers to Oz or possibly the Bay of Bengal. I'd like to strike the Aluetians while the KB is far away. Not sure I can be ready that quickly. Not sure I even want to be ready that quickly (the best time to be ready to invade would be in a month or six weeks, but the optimal time from my perspective would probably be October in order to have the reassurance of winter weather on the horizon). Here's what I have ready and what I need:

I would ask what the strategic purpose of the NOPAC move is. If you intend to move on the Kuriles later on, then go kitchen sink. If it's an offensive of opportunity or a big feint, what is it feinting for? Assuming the latter is your intention, I like grabbing the less defended western bases, and ignoring anything defended in strength. Note that NOPAC is a great feint for a Moulmein invasion, not such a great feint for a move in CENPAC (but you know that as well as I do).

Re Burma, don't forget that the base just East of Rangoon on the map is a port. A sneaky amphib site if conditions are right.

As for NW Oz, turn it into a big feint. Seize Carnarvon and threaten Exmouth with local forces. Get John all worked up while you transition over to the offensive in Burma, making sure to feint in NOPAC just as winter begins and ends. Be-Devil him in Burma for months then get Essexes and, assuming he never re-takes the Gilberts, start the Death Star tour of Asia there while the Commonwealth takes the opportunity of KB's absence to undercut Burma at Moulmein. Call it War Plan Tornado in honor of your recent escape from Mother Nature.

Meh. A late 1944/early 1945 tour de force by the Allied player is status quo. It's expected. It's (yawn) conventional. Sure, you'll win the war in 1945 (maybe even before September!!!! ), but who cares? That will just prove to me that you didn't get 'auto-vicced', small consolation for the Allied player.

What would impress me would be a slashing or novel Allied offensive to capture an underrepresented piece of real estate. The fact that this would be against a naval OOB wholly favoring the Japanese 'side' of the equation would be doubly impressive.

Grind 'em up offensives in 1944-1945 are pretty average, IMO. This is a great time for the Allied player to show his strategic acumen, his unconventional thought and abilities. Time for daring sweeps and clever feints. Canoerebel is capable of doing this sort of thing. His festung Iwo Jima landings in 1943 (versus John) made an impression not soon forgotten on my gaming mind. I'd like to see Canoerebel's modern version of that, akin to GreyJoy's Hokkaido 1944 landings. A Formosa coup de main in 1943? Now that's whay I'm talkin' about.

I love it! It may be hazardous to the health of CR's pixeltruppen, but the masses demand bread and circuses (circusi?)!

On a more serious note, I have always wanted to see an Allied player explore how the proposed Formosa invasion would have worked out. Not sure it's doable as soon as is suggested, but I'd love to see our man in Georgia try it.

I invaded Formosa relatively late, I think in my WitP game vs. Miller. By then it wasn't any big stretch. But I do have a legacy of some pretty interesting invasions: (1) 1943 Iwo Jima vs. John III (as Poultry Lad references); (2) late 1943 Hokkaido, Sikhalin Island, Kuriles vs. John III; (3) skipping from the DEI across the South China Sea to Hainan Island and SE China vs. Miller (I think this was late '43 or early '44); (4) Kuriles vs. Miller in early '43 (that was a tough battle but cost Miller four Kongos).

I'm willing to go out on a limb if I think there's something for the taking, but mainly right now I'm trying to keep John off balance while also bearing in mind that he gets major ship reinforcements above Scenario Two.

In 1942 it's dangerous to impossible for the Allies to face off en mass against Japan en mass. So,at any particular moment, I'm trying to attack where John isn't. I can foresee a stretch coming in which John's carriers will be in the far south or western parts of the map, giving me an opportunity to move in strength into the Western Aleutians. This creations direct pressure on him because it isolates his forward bases and is a clear and present danger to his well being. (I don't have any plans to invade the Kuriles, but circumstances might change).

Long term, the Allies intend to fully prosecute the war in Burma, to use Oz as a feinting mechanism against the DEI, and to eventually move across CenPac. I also intend to use China fully, as I have previously done in one game vs. John III and another against Miller.

One of the ideas I toyed with, considered, analyzed, and have just about dismissed as impractical and dangerous was this: With the KB in the Gilberts, move my carriers to the Bay of Bengal to cover a big invasion of Port Blair. Taking that key island, along with the current moves in Burma, would be huge. However, there are a number of fairly large enemy airfields in range (Port Blair 3, Rangoon 4, Moulmein, 4, Tavoy 4, Victoria Point 5).

Since the Allies are already in position to do quite well in Burma without exposing my carriers to interlocking land bases, Port Blair doesn't seem like a good idea.

On the other hand, a move against the western Aleutians would stress John at the two extreme ends of the map, Burma and NoPac, if successful. I think I can time it where the KB is far away, so that the risks are manageable.

So this is my medium term working plan at the moment, subject to whims and circumstances.

One of the ideas I toyed with, considered, analyzed, and have just about dismissed as impractical and dangerous was this: With the KB in the Gilberts, move my carriers to the Bay of Bengal to cover a big invasion of Port Blair.

Is someone just a little bit disappointed that their Australian operation did not dislodge the KB from the Gilberts and is over compensating? ? just kidding

I knew the Gilberts would draw John's carriers. I knew the Australia operation, if successful, would force John to make a tough choice: back off from the Gilberts or risk losing western Oz.

Things went smoothly for the Allies in the Gilberts invasions, but the Oz operation has been clunky and slow. John has put up pretty stiff resistance using what he has. Under these circumstances, I'm not surprised that he hasn't pulled out of the Gilberts. I think he's made the right choice, though western Oz is of far more importance than the Gilberts are. I just think, at this point, he can achieve a stalemate in Oz while recovering the Gilberts. That's a good move for him.

And as the Allies continue to work things in Oz, I'm cycling through options for the near and medium terms. The ideas I've come up with have also served as reminders to not risk my APs and carriers in Oz.

6/19/42Oz at Sea: Two IJN DDs tangle with the American carrier TF to no effect, other than John gets a full roster count. A number of small DD TF combats occur to little effect. Tomorrow, the American carrier TF will move further offshore to refuel.

Oz on Land: No Japanese attack at Exmouth, which is a surprise. The Marine tank unit arrives at Carnavon, bringing Allied AV to 260. The Allies will shock attack tomorrow. A USA RCT loading at Geraldton will move on Exmouth assuming Carnavon falls in short orter.

Oz in the Air: A quiet day with little activity.

Oz: If Carnavon falls in short order, the Allies will resume the move in earnest on Exmouth. If Carnavon continues to give me trouble, the Allies will dial back expectations.

Bay of Bengal: An IJN CL/DD force arrives at Ramree, sinks a couple of small ships, and then encounters the covering force. The IJN CL takes pretty heavy damage and at least one ship hits a mine. More engineers are inbound to Ramree from Calcutta.

China: Things look good.

NoPac: No obvious moves on Akutan yet.

CenPac: KB has moved south, just west of Tarawa. A USN sub missed a shot at Shokaku.

Oz on Land: No Japanese attack at Exmouth, which is a surprise. The Marine tank unit arrives at Carnavon, bringing Allied AV to 260. The Allies will shock attack tomorrow. A USA RCT loading at Geraldton will move on Exmouth assuming Carnavon falls in short orter.

Don't forget armoured units are fast in desert! When Carnarvon is taken, that tank unit (and any others?) can drive to Exmouth in ~ 1 week (or 2 if bombed at), removing need for amphibious assaults. Even infantry can make it in perhaps 20 days. More visible, predictable and less surprising than sea transport, but it is always worth keeping in mind.

6/20/42Australia: The Allies take Carnavon, destroying about 35 IJ aicraft (including 19 Zeros) on the ground. The Japanese get a high odds attack at Exmouth that doesn't wipe out my troops, but will, probably tomorrow. A sub finishes off Astoria, darn it! The Allies probably aren't going to push much further, but I'll make that decision for sure tomorrow.

NoPac: Quiet. CV Wasp arrives at Balboa, joins BB North Carolina, and the new TF makes for San Fran.

CenPac: Recon by fire. An IJ paratroop unit lands at Abemama by fast transport, gets snuffed out, but does a fine job of recon by fire. The KB remains just SW of Tarawa. Kirishima, Hiei and four CA bombard Tarawa.

6/21/42Oz: I'm standing down offensive operations in southwest Oz. John's had enough time to gather his wits and plan, and it appears that he has some stout ships arriving on scene. He attacks 6th Oz Cav. at very high odds at Exmouth, so the jig is up there. The Allies will work on rebuilding Carnavon. The carriers are likely to retire to Melbourne, though that's not 100% certain yet.

India: Looks like an IJN combat TF may be inbound to Ramree. We'll see. The port service units is fully unloaded there. My carriers are loitering near Viz, a level five airfield. I don't think John knows there whereabouts, though he might have a notion. Rangoon-based Betties score a couple of hits on merchant shipping at Ramree, but then the P-40Es arrive and chew up Miss Betty and her escorts.

China: Looking good.

NoPac: Subs and Dakotas are running supply to Akutan. Thus far two units have drawn a full allotment and now the Marine are getting some. So Akutan may not be defenseless.

CenPac: KB still SW of Tarawa. Subs are running supply to that island, though things are certainly meager at the moment.

John certainly has a number of fires to try to put out right now, Australia, Burma, Gilberts, etc.....and he's not a big fan of splitting the KB. It should be interesting to see how he attempts to deal with the situation at hand....

But John is notorious for doing just that: splitting the KB. I'll bet he's preparing to do so again.

The Allies really did have a very productive month of June. What happens in Oz and the Gilberts is almost immaterial to what happens in the Bay of Bengal. John still shows very little recognition that this theater (IMO) is the only one that currently poses an end-game kind of threat. Not that an Allied victory in Burma ends the game, but its the kind of move that has ramifications that reach to the end game.

So I'll continue to make noise, especially around Oz, while the real focus will be in Burma. The only question that matters now is whether John does the same. I think he is too late, even if he does.

6/22/42Australia: The general stand down begins as the IJ airfield at Corunna Downs goes to level four and a carrier force of some sort is hovering near Port Headland. It can't be much, but I'm not going to test it now. John's had too much time to configure his defenses and my carriers are starting to run up high SYS numbers - Yorktown is at 14. Too, Carnavon's airfield is a wreck - no operations until engineers, arrive, which will be in about five days.

Bay of Bengal: An IJN combat TF runs into mines at Ramree. A destroyer seems to have suffered a mortal blow. Later, the Beuforts operating out of Akyab sink another DD. That's good work. John's doing more to feel out the extent and strength of the Allied line in the jungle. I'm moving forward more troops as reinforcements are coming in at Aden and Capetown to handle rear defense at Karachi and Bombay. Most important is to get a US RCT currently at Karachi over to Calcutta, where fast transport will carry them to Ramree.

China: Things look good.

NoPac: No move yet on Acutan; more SigInt that 7th Div. is iinbound to Adak.

But John is notorious for doing just that: splitting the KB. I'll bet he's preparing to do so again.

I suspect he has done so again, or at least has a mini KB about somewhere. You have done the same splitting a carrier of to cause trouble. I think it makes for a more interesting game. Right now the carriers are support operations so the split works. It becomes duller in a year or 2 when each side just creates a BattleStar of doom. Quite a bit more flexibility for both sides while the game is fluid.

IMHO he is WAY too late in Burma. The plains are functionally yours already, and with Ramree you have the usual IJA MLR nicely flanked. Plus, Ramree gives you a port to use to pump in supply. All in all, he's in trouble there.

One more important note. The Allies have 1300 political points and I've been torn between buying a 1200-PP Australian division at Perth to help with the Exmouth operation or towards buying 41st USA Div. (1900 PP) which just arrived at Capetown. I'm almost certain to go with 41st Div. on the belief that Burma is more important and that 41st will be more effective than would the Aussie division at Exmouth.

You have to be careful. Given the choice I would buy out the American Division. You reach a point where you just do not have enough devices to restock all of your Indian, British and other Commonwealth units. Even in early 45 I find that I have bought out too many Australian units and can't build them up with the Indian army fighting hard in SE Asia. Mortars, 25 pounders, six pounders, bren gun carriers (to name only a few) are shared and production for all of these devices is pitiful.

Indian army units are constantly expanding all through the war. And the Australian territorial units undergo massive device expansions later on. I really have not been able to keep up.

In 42 it is a problem for the Americans but for the most part you will never run short of gear for American units. Best to get them in the fight first.

6/23/42Australia: The stand down seems to be going well. I'm withrawing most shipping from the front lines in expectation that John will raid forward from Exmouth. He's stabilized the "front" and will be feeling precocious. The American carriers will "round the cape" today on the way to Melbourne. They'll need some yard time (two CVs are due upgrades, though perhaps they are too big for Melbourne???).

India/Burma: I heard sounds of an enemy ship hitting a mine. Could be Makin or Tarawa, but I'm guessing Ramree again. John continues heavy "recon by bombing" raids against my foward line. I'm moving a Burma Area Army Indian brigade from Asanol to Calcutta. From there it'll fast transport to Ramree. This unit is already unrestricted and 100% prepped for Rangoon.

China: Looking good. John seems to be concentrating on Chengte, but I don't think he's making the slightest headway. The Chinese forward post at Kweilin appears to be solidly held with all flanks also well protected.

NoPac: Supply continues to Akutan, so that the Marines are now about 1/3rd supplied with AV climbing. The invasion of the western Aleutians will be my next big move. This is a medium term operation - probably two to three months away. I'll monitor SigInt carefully for signs that John is prepared. If that happens, I'll scrub it.

CenPac: KB still sending Kates to Tarawa. Small supply TFs are hovering well to the east of the Gilberts. I'm hoping for a chance to sneak them in, but John's guard is fully up.

6/24/42CenPac/SoPac: No sign of the KB today - that's a first since back in mid or late May. I have DD ASW TFs operating east of Brisbane and Sydney to make sure my big naval bases don't get a surprise visit. CA New Orleans, heavily damaged and given up for lost in the March "Battle of the SW Cape," is repaired and available for duty.

Australia: Four American CVs are about 37 hexes from Melbourne.

Bay of Bengal: Several Japanese raids vs. combat ships at Akyab are readily repulsed by Allied fighters. The attrition in this theater is decidedly in favor of the Allies since D-Day, back on the 4th. (Overall, the Allies now have a 1,100 plane lead in the air wars.) A second Indian engineer unit is ashore at Ramree. The Indian brigade mentioned yesterday will begin the APD shuttle ride from Calcutta to Ramree tomorrow.