The Kaepernick Factor: His looming new deal affects everything the 49ers do or don’t do this off-season, and into the future

He’s there in the background and as part of the presumptive spread sheet for everything the 49ers do these days.

The looming reality: Colin Kaepernick will get paid either this off-season or soon afterwards. He will get paid a lot.

There is no getting around it and the 49ers don’t want to get around it–at some point between now and the 2015 season, they almost certainly will increase Kaepernick’s salary exponentially, because they have to.

And this market-place certainty overshadows every move the 49ers have made this off-season and will make for years to come.

Of course, general manager Trent Baalke has positions to fill, a draft to plan, and all the usual practical pieces to realign for another attempt at a Super Bowl run in 2014.

Baalke has let a few free agents go, signed a few, is still looking, and has gone about the whole process in the 49ers’ usual balanced and circumspect manner.

But Kaepernick’s new deal will be an enormous part of the 49er’s financial future, whenever it comes, and that lavish probability means the 49ers have to figure out how to make room for it.

Simply, Kaepernick is essentially irreplaceable, he is currently making less than $1 million, and any new deal will probably pay him at least $18 million annually.

That’s what young, playoff-winning quarterbacks make and Kaepernick isn’t likely headed to a cut-rate deal.

By the way, the 49ers also have other stars who are due extensions soon, including guard Mike Iupati, receiver Michael Crabtree and linebacker Aldon Smith.

But those contract negotiations won’t have the payroll impact of one player getting a $17-million raise.

That changes things. You have to brace for it.
For instance, the 49ers were able to go heavy at other spots last year because their QB costs were so light; but whenever Kaepernick gets that raise, that payroll benefit will end.

Here’s a little thumbnail look at how the Kaepernick Factor has touched the 49ers’ off-season so far…

* It’s one of many reasons the 49ers are not likely to be deeply involved in the pursuit of Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson.

Acquiring Jackson would give the 49ers a true deep threat, but his $10.5 million salary (and frequent demands for more and more money) would blow up the 49ers’ careful payroll construct.

Also: You can’t give a new receiver huge money if you actually need to give that money—and more—to your young QB.

* It’s partially why the 49ers are going so young and inexpensive in the secondary.

They released Carlos Rogers and let Tarell Brown and Donte Whitner go and right now are planning to start Chris Culliver, Tramaine Brock, Antoine Bethea and Eric Reid in the defensive backfield.

That’s how you trim down the costs at the margins, and Baalke clearly has decided that the secondary is the best place to target.

* Real terms: Whitner got $7 million per from Cleveland; the 49ers replaced him with Bethea at about $5.75 million.

Last year, Reid ($2.1 million per year on his rookie deal) was drafted to replace Dashon Goldson ($8.2 million per year with Tampa Bay).

* It’s partially why this could be tailback Frank Gore’s last season with the 49ers—at about $6 million—with young and inexpensive Marcus Lattimore prepping for full-time work in 2015.

* I don’t expect there to be much locker-room consternation over the fact that newly acquired back-up Blaine Gabbert’s salary is about $2 million—double Kaepernick’s salary.

It’s a quirk of the rookie wage scale and probably not a huge problem because his teammates know that Kaepernick could sign for more right now if he wanted to.

Everybody in the franchise knows he’s getting huge bucks eventually.

Now, it’s very possible that whenever Kaepernick gets his deal—this off-season or next—the immediate cap hit won’t be that large because it can be structured to start at a much lower number.

But the 49ers still have to plan for an $18-million/$20-million per year impact down the road.

Soon, Kaepernick will eat up more than 10 percent of the 49ers’ cap space by himself.

That will unbalance the payroll a little bit, but that’s the reality of having a big-time QB ready to enter his prime years.

Good teams live with it, pay for it and definitely have to start planning for it years in advance. Which is now for the 49ers.

It should be obvious. The 49ers can’t spend on big name free agents. They must hit in the draft so they have those cost controlled rookie contracts for starters. That is also why they won’t be trading up to the top of the draft. They also will probably lose Crabtree and Iupati.

Mark M

Isn’t it still a possibility to have Kap play another season at his current contract, then franchise him for 15, 16 million $ next season, or even the next few seasons? Kap’s contract discussions have been discussed ad nauseum, but if this is still a possibility, I don’t see how any other contract decision makes more sense in this case. It delays the inevitable but allows for another year of low QB pay opening up money for other positions, at least for another season. Plus it drops the dollars down a bit for the next few seasons. 18 mil may be market value today as you look around, but if we can keep him for less and delay the BIG CONTRACT a few more seasons, it appears to make more sense while our window is open with this talented roster plus a few pricey FAs still to come. Who knows what this team will look like in ’17 and beyond, or what Kap’s status will be by then for that matter.

ed

this young qb took a team that already was a playoff contender and did they really improve? of the 12 qbs playing in the playoffs, he was 11th…there is no justification to pay him.. yes the TEAM won playsoffs, but he lost the NFC championship game on his own in the fourth quarter..dont pay him

Jamesvic

Looking at the money- any chance the niners place a value on kap of less than the market and move on? 18-20 million is a lot of money to pay an unlikable choke artist. There are probably 20 qbs in the nfl that could have done a better job with the niners than kaepernick did last season. (Didnt he pass for the 30th amount of passing yards?)

I am hoping the niners spend their first rounder on a qb and look to trade kaep for two first round pics next year. The guy is overhyped- better to take advantage of it than get rooked with a flacco situation

fanforlife

And I suppose you think Alex is better etc etc–
Very clear that your football knowledge is limited!
20 QBs better–REALLY?

Yes Man

It’s a very good model SF has going and has brought them to the edge of winning it all. This is what the Steelers organization has done so well for so many years. It is however completely based on consistently drafting well. So now’s the time when Baalke’s nightmare 2012 draft really rears it’s ugly head. That draft would have guys coming into their own in this third year ready to step in and Baalke really made a mess of that draft. SF could really use that slot receiver but given what they have done (or not done) in the secondary thiu far trading up for a top corner like Darqueze Dennard or Justin Gilbert would seem to make a whole lot of sense, especially given the dirth of picks they have. As Seattle has shone, having a top shelf secondary is kind of important.

Justin Guinn

Everyone keeps forgetting about Frank Gore making 6mil this season. Yes, he has been the bell cow & ultimate team guy. Everyone including myself loves him, but 6mil??? By Baalke stating he sees no reason to ask Frank to take a pay cut , shows how much of an idiot Baalke is sometimes. It showed towards the end of the year Gore wasn’t cutting it. His pass blocking is still exceptional, but if I have to see him get tackled behind the line of scrimmage any more, it will make me sick. I hear some people blame the line on that, but I don’t buy it. Hunter hits the wholes so much faster…..

Even if we asked him to cut his pay to 3 mil, I doubt he would say no. No one else would pay him 3 mil now. That would most likely give us another 2 mil in Cap space

I think this all goes back to Baalke not always being consistent and sometimes just straight up idiot. He is a lot like Kaep! He will put on a Firework show, but than also allow the motor to blow up in the launcher once in while (2012 draft)

Chris

He had one of his best years, a whole lot of yards and TDs, but sometimes our proud offensive line screws up. That’s not all on Gore. More importantly, Gore signed for 3 years at a bargain price. Fair is fair, Baalke has to honor the contract especially since he truly earned that money with a lot of hard-earned yardage.

Chris

Frankly, I am not so sure the 49ers should be paying all that much for Kaepernick. Maybe they should simply let him walk, and meanwhile groom another QB to replace him. Harbaugh is great at grooming QBs and he even turned Alex Smith into a top-notch signal caller. I am getting a little tired of Kaep falling apart late in games, due to pressure from the rush and pressure from the clutch. We should have won the last three super bowls, and two of those losses were on Kaepernick. Inb a game we should have won against Seattle for the NFC championship, he commits 3 turnovers late in the 4th quarter. That’s just bad anyway you look at it. I say, let’s just start over. Wherever Kaepernic ends up, he will have a rude awakening playing for a team that expects him to make plays in the clutch.

Jo

So sick of this drivel. Kaep is good. He is NOT “irreplaceable”. No one is. You’d think Kawakami was his agent or at least got a cut of his contract.

Jo

Other than the running skills that don’t net much anyway, yeah, there are plenty of QBs who could do the same passing as CK and for tons less money that wouldn’t require destroying the salary cap for one guy at the expense of the team.

Bigmouth

For sure, and if he insists on $18 million, I think they should seriously consider it. It’s a big gamble, though, if you think he’s going to get better. The longer you wait, the more the salary you’ll probably have to pay. I mean, $18 million seems like a lot but who knows how much it will be in a few years, particularly if Kap wins the Super Bowl with us.

Bigmouth

He really didn’t. Worst yards/carry of his career and worst total yardage since Harbaugh took over. But I think Frank still has some gas in the tank and will rebound a bit next year.

Bigmouth

Name them.

Bigmouth

You know who was 26th in total yards? Russell Wilson. I wonder if SEA fans are as ungrateful for what they have lol.

Mark M

He’s probably worth the 18 mil now but I’m just looking at it from the team’s standpoint. Our window is open now, and probably will be for a few more years. Who knows how much longer that will be the case beyond that. It probably depends on Baalke’s performance in the draft last year and next. But yes, the risk is that he continues to excel and improve and you have to pay him 25 mil or some other outrageous number down the line to keep him. That could be a nice problem to have though if we get another ring soon.

Jamesvic

You would like me to list all the qbs that can get to their second and third and sometimes fourth progression? Unlike kaepernick? Ok

I would say kaep is around the 15th best qb being generous to a guy who will look down one receiver the whole way at the end of the two biggest games of his career

Mike

I’m not a Kaepernick fan. I live in Seattle. I wouldn’t swap Wilson for him, but I assume 49er fans wouldn’t either. Homerism. But I’m surprised at a lot of the comments.
1. Kaep’s running ability doesn’t net much.
*Really? When Seattle plays the 49ers, we have to keep a spy on the entire time. All the time. That is absolutely valuable. And he still burns us sometimes.
2. There are 20 QB’s better than him.
Okay….. I’m sure AS is one?

QB is one of the hardest positions to fill. You don’t let go of someone with Kaepernick’s ability. I’m not saying he is a Rodger’s, Manning, or Brady, but you take his skill set and build around him. Anyone suggesting they let him go is just being ridiculous.

Rodrigues_Islander

I lean toward seeing if a 4 year $60M deal can be done now, if not, so what.
Kaepernick is nearly a top 10 quarterback right now, with still more potential to be realized. Who’s better now – Brady, Rodgers, Brees, both Mannings, Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Rivers? There are some young guys who will probably be top-10 soon – Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick, and Newton come to mind. I tend to think that Luck is the best of that group, but who knows?
Neither Kaepernick or Wilson have video-game stats that wow people – they operate in systems that do not operate that way. Both Kaepernick and Wilson share one trait – they win games and do not make a lot of mistakes.

Andrew

I wish Kaep would take a 12-15 million short-term deal. He still has so much room to improve. People don’t realize just how raw he was coming out of Nevada – and still is. The offence there was the furthest thing from pro-style you can get in the NCAA. The sky is the limit for Kaep… so can his salary.

Bigmouth

That wasn’t the question I asked you. But I find it hilarious you rank Wilson ahead of Kap when their passing stats were very similar, right down to the low total passing yards.

Also, Carson Palmer… lol.

Jamesvic

I didnt see russel wilson turn the ball over 3 times in the last quarter. And im sorry- didnt flacco outplay kaep in the superbowl?

And tannehill is a quality qb- you are obviously not watching the whole league.

ssclesq

Kaps deal has to be evaluated in light of this years performance. People forget Alex smith did well with this team of probowlers, and he was terrible before that. Kap seemingly did not improve last year. We lost the last 3 season games because our pass offense is crummy. We were last or bear last in pass offense. If anyone can do it in the nfl I think Harbaugh can, ( it took Walsh and shanahan to make Steve young) but drafting a qb this year should be a no brainier. Even if kap turns I to Brett farve, they couldn’t turn him Loose until the playoffs fearing his backup wasn’t good enough. Being last in pass offense is truly an embarrassment that has to be fixed.

Emerson

Wow…..

flaninerfan

With the cap ceiling projected to go up at least the next three years it would be smart to sign him sooner than later. The longer it goes the more he will probably want.

Geo77

I think Kaep is one of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the league right now (when you consider age and future potential in the equation) and the low passing yards per game are more a reflection of the offensive system than they are of Kaep’s ability. That being said, I think this decision on signing Kaep to a big new contract is one of the hardest that any team in the NFL will need to make this year. I hate what salary busting QB contracts do to teams’ competitiveness these days (see Flacco, Joe). If Baalke signs him long term at 18 or 19 mil a year it’s going to be hard to field a Super Bowl competitive supporting cast. The alternative? Keep him on his rookie contract one more year and franchise him the next year. You’d probably end up paying $20 mil for two years and guarantee that he would walk the following year. So it becomes important to draft a good QB to groom for the future this year, just in case management decides to go that direction.

Bigmouth

Kaep’s INT rate (1.9%) was lower than either Wilson’s (2.2%) or Tannehill’s (2.9%). Try watching more than one quarter of one game lol.

Ronald Rupert

The problem is, the niners don’t use a wr for the slot, because they don’t run that play much, but everybody keeps bringing this up, that’s not going to happen
until they get rid of Roman, it’s like he has tunnel vision.

Ronald Rupert

In all of these 20, how many of them have taken there team to the play offs 3 yrs. in a row, not to many of them if any.

Ronald Rupert

He needs to be paid more than his current backup that’s for sure, but they
can give him that kind of money and work it where this yr it wouldn’t
cost that much this yr. there’s ways of doing this, and it would be
better to do it now, if they wait it will cost them even more.

I think it’d be in the 49ers interests to hold off on paying him for at least one more season. It already looks like the 49ers are going to run into the same problem of the last 3 years (below average receiving output) with the added problem of a depleted secondary. If you’re going to back the truck up for Kaep, give him the weapons (receivers) to make the most of it. If you can’t do both, get the weapons that might get you a championship next season, then pay him, the window is closing fast.