Masters betting breakdown: Favorites, longshots and odds movers

Jeff Sherman, sportsbook manager at the Las Vegas Hilton and Nevada’s premier golf oddsmaker, is on pace to take the most money wagered on the Masters ever. And Tiger Woods is receiving the most of it.

More money had been bet on Woods, who for the first time in 13 years is not the betting favorite, than any other golfer, said Sherman. But another golfer actually received more total bets than Woods. And it’s not tournament favorite Phil Mickelson.

Sherman joined Covers.com leading up the Masters and broke down what most believe is a wide-open tournament; a tournament where a longshot could easily be putting on the green jacket come Sunday.

Three Favorites

Phil Mickelson -- +650

The Lefty jumped ahead of Tiger Woods as the clear-cut favorite to defend his Masters title by winning the Shell Houston Open in impressive fashion. His 20-under winning score featured a sizzling second-round 9-under 63.

He is the last player to win the Masters after winning the tournament the preceding weekend, accomplishing the feat in 2006.

Last year at Augusta, Mickelson shot three 67s to pull away from Lee Westwood and earn his second green jacket.

He looked zoned in at the Houston Open; it will be a surprise if he’s not in contention on Sunday.

Tiger Woods -- +900

Woods had been the favorite in 13 straight Masters, dating back to his Augusta debut in 1997. But that streak is done, thanks to a winless streak that stretches back more than a year.

A lot of folks point to his putting, which has suffered during his fall back to the pack. But his driver needs to shape up significantly as well. He’s hitting just 44.64 percent of the fairways, among the very lowest on Tour.

Still, even with all the distractions that surrounded him at last year’s Masters—his first since admitting extra-marital affairs--Woods managed to finish tied for fourth at Augusta National, a course he’s won at four times.

Nick Watney -- +$1,500

The 29-year-old is enjoying his best season. He leads the PGA in scoring average at a tidy 68.92 per round. He’s third in putting and fourth in scrambling. He bested Dustin Johnson to win the Cadillac and has finished in the top 10 in five of his six starts this season. Watney closed with a 7-under 65 on Sunday last year at the Masters to finish seventh.

Watney opened 30-1, but, according Sherman, received a “good deal of money” and enters the tournament as the third favorite.

Three Golfers Attracting Action

These contenders were among the golfers who received the most betting action to win the Masters at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Dustin Johnson -- +2,000

Heading into Masters week, the Hilton had received more bets on Johnson to win the tournament than any other golfer, including Woods.

“We opened him at 25-1 and dropped him to 20-1,” said Sherman. “But he’s seeing a lot of support.”

The 27-year-old Johnson is looking for his first major. He was in contention in the final day at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship last year, but hasn’t been able to put together a winning fourth round in a major. He infamously grounded his club in a bunker on the 18th hole of the 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits, costing himself a spot in a playoff.

He’s yet to win this season, but has a second and third showing amongst his three top 10 finishes. He missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 27, his last tournament.

Martin Kaymer -- +2,000

Kaymer, of course, took advantage of Johnson’s blunder and beat Bubba Watson in a playoff to win the PGA Championship. He’s the No. 1 ranked player in the world right now and has already won this year at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship in January. He finished second at the World Golf Classic--Accenture Match Play Championship in February and 24th at WGC-Cadillac Championship, his last tournament.

Matt Kuchar -- +2,500

Kuchar may have replaced Steve Stricker as the best golfer to never win a major. He led the PGA Tour in earnings last season and is following that up with another hot start. He leads the PGA Tour in top-10’s with six in eight events, but has never finished higher than 21st at the Masters. And that came way back in 1998.

Three Best Putters in the Field

On Augusta National’s ultra-undulating greens, the putter is the most important club in the bag. These three guys can really roll it.

Robert Karlsson – +10,000

The Swede averages the fewest putts per round in the field at 27. His best finish at the Masters came in 2008 when he finished eighth.

Retief Goosen – +6,000

Coming off a career-high in top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour, Goosen again has the flat stick rolling pure. He is right behind Karlsson with just 27.2 putts per hole and has twice finished second at the Masters (2002, 2007).

Kevin Na -- +20,000

He leads the PGA Tour in putts per round at 27.47, but has never made the cut in two Masters appearances.

Three Longshots

Guys who could win with odds of +2,500 or higher

Hunter Mahan -- +2,500

Mahan shot four rounds of under-par golf last year at Augusta and finished 8th, his best finish at the Masters. He’s yet to win this season, but has been in contention in almost all of his nine starts.

Luke Donald -- +2,500

The Englishman with the picture-perfect swing is right behind Watney in scoring average at 69.31 strokes per round and defeated Kaymer in the finals of the Match Play Championship.

Beware, though, his best finish at the Masters was third in 2005 and he has missed the cut in three of his seven appearances at Augusta.

Rickie Fowler -- +6,000

Second on the PGA Tour in putting behind Na, the charismatic Fowler is a breakthrough threat, despite his retina-burning all-orange attire. The 2010 Rookie of the Year will be making his Masters debut, but got some experience under pressure at the Ryder Cup.

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Two guys that deserve some attention:
Bubba Watson +4,000- Hits it a mile and puts it well enough to be a factor. Can easily reach all of the par fives in two, and has been preparing for this week by taking the last several weeks off.
Graeme McDowell +3,200- Arguably the best player in the world last year, but certainly the best clutch putter. McDowell will reach the majority of the par fives in two, and if he gets the putter going he will be a factor. Good luck.

"Two guys that deserve some attention:
Bubba Watson +4,000- Hits it a mile and puts it well enough to be a factor. Can easily reach all of the par fives in two, and has been preparing for this week by taking the last several weeks off.
Graeme McDowel..."

Tthe Rangers' 19-29 home record represents the fewest home wins of ANY of MLB's 30 teams...

My free play is on the SF Giants at 3:05 ET.

Mike Leake (9-5, 3.56 ERA) was acquired by San Francisco on Thursday from Cincinnati for two prospects and makes his first start for the Giants on Sunday in Texas. "He's a quality starter who's going to help us," SF manager Bruce Bochy Bochy said. "He's excited about being here. He's been throwing the ball well, good athlete. That's a great move for us to give us some depth in the rotation." Leake steps into the rotation in place of the injured Tim Hudson (shoulder) and has allowed just two ERs on 15 hits in 30 innings (0.60 ERA) while winning four straight starts, completing the eighth in three. He did just that while limiting NL-leading St Louis to four hits in Tuesday's 4-0 road win.

Leake has to like the fact that his new team has won 14 of its past 17 contests to move 1 1/2 games back of the NL West-leading LA Dodgers. The Giants bounced back from Friday's 6-3 loss in the series opener by spoiling Cole Hamels' Rangers debut with a 9-7, 11-inning victory Saturday. The win makes San Francisco 15-8 (plus-$920) when facing a left-handed starter in 2015 and today San Francisco draws another lefty, in Texas' Martin Perez.

Perez (0-2, 10.50) gets a fourth chance at his first win since returning from Tommy John surgery. He surrendered a career high-tying eight runs before getting an out in the second inning and being pulled in Tuesday's 21-5 loss to the New York Yankees. He has now allowed 22 hits in 12 innings over three starts since returning from Tommy John elbow surgery, giving him a 10.50 ERA, 2.33 WHIP and opponents are batting a ridiculous .407 against him.

Throw in the fact that the Rangers' 19-29 home record represents the fewest home wins of ANY of MLB's 30 teams and the bet HAS to be on the Giants.

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