Implications of real-world distributions and the conversation game for studies of human probability judgments.

MedLine Citation:

PMID:
17963558
Owner:
NLM
Status:
In-Data-Review

Abstract/OtherAbstract:

Subjects in experiments use real-life strategies that differ significantly from those assumed by experimenters. First, true randomness is rare in both natural and constructed environments. Second, communication follows conventions which depend on the game-theoretic aspects of situations. Third, in the common rhetorical stance of storytelling, people do not tell about the representative but about unusual, exceptional, and rare cases.