2018-19 NBA Win Totals Advice: Be Wary of the Warriors

Golden State may be one of the elite teams of all time, but they may not show it during the NBA regular season. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/])

Golden State leads the NBA’s win projection totals for next season at 65.5

Can the Lakers win 50+ games with LeBron leading the charge?

Are the Hawks a safe bet t win less than 26 games?

It’s perhaps no coincidence that the Golden State Warriors, seeking a three-peat and their fourth title in five years, top BetOnline’s NBA total wins predictions for the upcoming regular season. But picking the Dubs to win another championship is a different ballgame than picking win totals.

Last season, their total was set at 67.5. Not only did the Warriors fail to go over, but they didn’t even reach 60 wins. Easy money? Well, easy if you predicted one of the most talented teams ever assembled would win a game less than the Toronto Raptors.

Sure, they battled injuries, but much of the battle they encountered was with themselves: motivation, hunger, and attention to detail wavered greatly during the regular season. Of course, as you witnessed in the playoffs, the “on” switch got flipped, and they wrecked the league.

Turns out, playing at a high level year in and year out takes its toll. The Dubs tried to address that issue this offseason (more on that below), but it remains to be seen how many wins they’ll rack up between October and April.

The Lead-Pipe Locks

San Antonio Spurs (over): We’ve chronicled this in detail before, but DeMar DeRozan is ready to work. This team won 47 games with Kawhi Leonard showing up for spot duty nine times. They are not getting worse. I can’t emphasize this enough.

Golden State Warriors (under): This team is built for 70 wins, but they’ll likely be on cruise control, trying to stay healthy, keep their rotations intact, and be ready come playoff time.

(Golden State) is built for 70 wins, but they’ll likely be on cruise control trying to stay healthy.

They’ll still be top three in every major offensive category including scoring (1st last year), field-goal percentage (1st), three-point percentage (1st) and assists (1st).

What will help them this year, much like when they fell to Cleveland in 2015, is adding a superstar who is hungry for success. It was Kevin Durant in the summer of 2016, and this year, it’s Boogie Cousins. Even if it’s boring, you know people will be watching.

Worth the Investment

Minnesota Timberwolves (under): They are not getting to 45 wins (they finishing 47-35 last year). Jimmy Butler is all-world, but his knees have been run into the ground by head coach Tom Thibodeau’s win-at-all-costs mentality. Butler’s voice, however? That appears to be in bad shape from the jump.

While Karl Anthony Towns is a developing star in training (his offense is arriving much faster than his defense), Andrew Wiggins is regressing and there are real chemistry issues, mostly Butler not appreciating the lackadaisical effort of the young core. This is not good. Unless you’re banging the under.

Los Angeles Lakers (over): LeBron James and 50 wins are virtually synonymous. After his first two years (35 and 42 wins), he’s only missed cracking 50 one other time (07-08). By the way, It’s Christmas in August! And the NBA couldn’t have handled the marquee schedule any better.

Indiana Pacers (over): I get the reluctance, but this team is clearly in position to snatch a top-four seed in the East. They have a superstar in Victor Oladipo, and they had a quietly effective offseason that saw them round out the roster. The additions of Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott have this team built for the 50-win range.

Denver Nuggets (over): This is an altitude bet. The Nuggets’ good teams have traditionally feasted at home, as road weary teams simply can’t keep up in the rare air. Their current brand of basketball may not run you out of the gym, but it does pick you apart beautifully, piece by piece.

Last year, they went 31-10 at home, the first time they’ve cracked 30 since the ‘Melo-Billups days. They’d need just 15 more wins away from home to get there. Really liked the Isiah Thomas pick up. If he pans out, this is a really nice team.

2018-19 NBA Regular Season Win Totals

Team

Win Totals

BetOnline Odds

Los Angeles Clippers

40.5

(+135o/-155u)

Charlotte Hornets

35.5

(-110o/-110u)

Dallas Mavericks

34.5

(-125o/+105u)

Memphis Grizzlies

31.5

(-145u/+125o)

Orlando Magic

30.5

(-110o/-110u)

Chicago Bulls

28.5

(-115o/-105u)

Brooklyn Nets

28.5

(-130o/+110u)

Phoenix Suns

27.5

(-110o/-110u)

Sacramento Kings

26.5

(-110o/-110u)

Atlanta Hawks

26.5

(+100o/-120u)

Mercy Bets

Orlando Magic (under): This team is literally what would happen if Dr. Moreau constructed a roster on his island. The Magic are sad, and will need to get sadder before they and their fans can get happy. How about an Aaron Gordon highlight?

Drafting Mo Bamba, while making sense, just adds to the glut of big men in a league that now calls for athletic wing players and shot creators. Well, Orlando fans, at least you get a reprieve – one less ‘home’ game!

JUST IN: #Bulls will participate in the NBA Mexico City Games 2018, playing the host team Orlando Magic in a regular-season meeting on Dec. 13. https://t.co/BcWGuT6Sd1

Forgive me for saying this, but what the hell are you talking about, Vince? You’ve never been one for ring chasing, that’s fine, but is it cool to toil in the NBA hinterlands in dead zones like Atlanta and Sacramento?

Most competitive teams can certainly use him for at least ten minutes a night. That’s not ring chasing, that’s just a chance to ride out on a high note. It definitely won’t be with the Hawks – but it will be for you if you take the under.

Born and bred in the West, Eric is a print and broadcast journalism graduate now based on the East Coast. He has been specializing in NBA and NFL odds and news with SportsBettingDime since 2017, and spends the majority of his free time convincing his wife to spend Sundays with him on the couch.

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