John Kasich’s inner circle is gearing up for a possible presidential run in 2020 — actively weighing the prospect of a Republican primary challenge to President Donald Trump against the feasibility of a long-shot general election campaign as an independent.

And there’s one consideration driving their thinking perhaps more than any other: what some of his advisers consider the very real, maybe even likely, possibility that Trump doesn’t run again — by choice or not — or that the president becomes so politically hobbled by late next year that the political landscape fundamentally shifts in Kasich’s favor. That’s one reason Kasich has yet to decide whether to pursue an independent bid or a primary challenge.

Story Continued Below

Nine Republicans in or close with Kasich’s political operation told POLITICO that the departing Ohio governor has been working with a tight clutch of advisers and informally surveying donors and fellow pols about the shape of his next steps. So far, he has solidified his role as a go-to commentator for national news shows while stacking his schedule with trips including an April return to New Hampshire.

None of this is to say Kasich is a go for 2020. But his activity has undergone a marked shift from just a few months ago, when Kasich and his allies repeatedly denied any interest whatsoever in the White House, even as he embarked on a book tour.

By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Now, more eyes than ever are on Kasich as he re-emerges in Washington for the National Governors Association meeting less than 2,000 feet from the White House this weekend.

Far from sitting in a holding pattern, Kasich has been signing up for a wide range of events around the country in the coming months likely to put him in small rooms with even more of the influential activists and thinkers who he might eventually need.

That includes hearing from longtime advisers who want him to challenge the president, and others who insist his best option is to position himself to step in if Trump isn’t around in two years — a path that, in private conversations, Kasich now seems inclined to follow, according to multiple Republicans who’ve talked with him recently about his future. They point to Kasich’s acknowledgment to CNN last month that he would consider a run “if I felt my country called me and it was practical."

“He’s actually been pretty straightforward about it: He would like to run again if he sees an opening. And if Trump runs again, there’s no opening. But if Trump doesn’t run, there is one,” said Charlie Black, the veteran Republican operative and Kasich 2016 campaign adviser who said he still speaks with him.

But Kasich has also heard from friends who see a real chance for him to become the first successful independent candidate.

“There is, I think, among this electorate, much less party discipline, and much more willingness to accept something out of the usual. And ’18 is going to make that even worse. So is there an opening? Yes, but you have to be smart about it,” offered Tom Rath, the former New Hampshire attorney general and long-time influential early voting state strategist who helped guide Kasich’s early efforts to a second-place primary finish there last time.

Still other allies find this whole exercise ridiculous, especially given the governor’s notorious aversion to traditional fundraising. They want Kasich to just admit he’s not running already.

Kasich and his closest advisers insist he hasn’t yet made up his mind about what comes next: “He’s made no decision whether to run in 2020, he’s made no decision whether to run as an independent, in a primary, or not. There’s been no decision to run, but no decision not to run,” said John Weaver, Kasich’s top political adviser.

Even longtime Kasich friends and advisers acknowledge that his inner political sanctum now doesn’t extend far beyond Weaver and Beth Hansen, his 2016 campaign manager-turned-chief of staff. Their contact with most Republicans on Capitol Hill has almost fizzled out entirely.

But that hasn’t stopped the rest of the political world from assuming he’s running, and planning accordingly. The Democratic National Committee has an active opposition research project tracking him, and back in Ohio Republicans pursuing both the governor’s mansion and a U.S. Senate seat have run from him, not wanting to be seen as cozying up to a Trump enemy.

For now, Kasich’s national moves are centered around building his political muscle while advocating for values of bipartisanship and respect that he believes are absent from today’s politics. That’s why his 2017 book was called “Two Paths” — named after his April 2016 anti-Trump speech — and why its back cover features the quote, “I will not take the low road to the highest office in the land,” a nod to Arizona Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign.

Yet with McCain ill and with Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) retiring, Kasich feels a responsibility to fill the role of the conservative conscience. At McCain's request, Kasich was scheduled to attend this month’s Munich Security Conference to advocate for international cooperation, but had to cancel his trip after two Ohio police officers were killed. He’s set to appear with members of the Bush family in Houston later this year after being invited for an event with Barbara Bush’s literacy foundation.

Kasich is aiming for as wide — and young — an audience as possible, to combat his toxic reputation among the party’s pro-Trump base. When some local Republicans briefly floated the possibility of Kasich challenging Ohio’s Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this November, he quickly shot down the notion of sticking to Ohio and Washington.

Fanning the presidential flames can only help him spread his message, allies of Kasich acknowledge. That’s one reason his upcoming trip to Henniker, New Hampshire, will be his third to the state since he dropped out of the 2016 presidential contest. And Kasich has kept his campaign committee, super PAC, and political nonprofit active as he travels the country: The 501(c)(4) is now scheduled to host policy conferences this spring in California and New York.

Traveling to such events provides him with built-in opportunities to survey the moguls and celebrities he may need to rely on if he runs. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who himself toyed with an independent run in 2016, hosted a book party for Kasich last year. And Kasich frequently talks with former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has made clear that he wants to see Kasich run.

Still, the obstacles to running a serious campaign are significant.

Kasich’s returns to New Hampshire — which launched his 2016 campaign into national legitimacy — have sparked speculation that he’s reactivating his team there, especially since no other GOP figure is moving toward a potential run as openly as he is. But Kasich is not making the kinds of personal calls to influential figures in New Hampshire or Iowa that might be expected of him, even as his New Hampshire backers remain in touch and organized.

“There’s no incipient sort of secret coven of Kasich people,” said Rath. “But he’s got an awful lot of friends, and I would think if anything is happening here, it’s stronger than it was three years ago, when he had to reintroduce himself.”

Yet the window for launching a primary challenge to Trump — who beat Kasich in the New Hampshire primary two years ago, and crushed him in Iowa — is likely closing, said Jennifer Horn, the former New Hampshire Republican Party chair.

“Anybody on the Republican side who’s even imagining themselves possibly being in some kind of a race in 2020 has to start taking action sometime really soon,” she said.

Kasich’s advisers acknowledge that the legal and fundraising path to a nationwide independent bid is just as forbidding as challenging an incumbent president in a primary.

“I don’t think there’s an opening as an independent, and neither does he,” said Black, pointing to the filing fees and immense name recognition challenges that plague any non-major-party contender.

Still, Kasich’s team sees a path if Trump were matched up against someone it perceives to be too far left, like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Some of Kasich's longtime friends saw his calls for stricter gun laws last week as a step toward the independent side, since such a stance is unlikely to play well in a GOP primary.

His moves in that direction, though, have so far been halting. He has worked closely with Colorado’s Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper on health care issues — they’re unveiling a new plan Friday — but an August float of a joint ticket between the two fell flat, including among Hickenlooper allies.

For now, Kasich is still waiting for the right moment to decide which route to take, watching Trump from afar.

"I don’t think anyone knows" what Kasich will do, said Rath, "because we don’t know what the circumstances are. Anybody who thinks they know what’s going to happen in 2020? All I can tell you is they’re going to be wrong.”