Toyota has decided to increase global production this year by about 300,000 units, The Nikkei [sub] reports, as usual for the Nikkei without quoting sources. If this is true, then it would bring global production numbers for Toyota and Lexus close to 9 million for the year. With Daihatsu and Hino, that number would be around 10 million. That is too high for GM to reach.The Nikkei says the change was due to stronger than expected sales in the key Japanese and U.S. markets during the January-June half. The global increase is even more interesting in that Toyota recently was heard talking about taking production in Japan down a notch to account for an expected reduction of sales after the end of the Japanese subsidies.

This reflects anemic global growth of only 3 percent for General Motors, whereas Toyota grew 55.5 percent and Volkswagen 8.8 percent in the first half of 2012. Based on the data, and barring major disasters, we predict for the end of 2012:

Toyota will end the year as the world’s largest automaker with around 10 million units made.

GM will come in second, with a volume in the low 9 million.

If Volkswagen will include Porsche in its sales for 2012 (to be expected) , the projected 8.9 million would rise to slightly more than 9 million.

P.S.: The Nikkei article had been put on the wire at 2 am, when even the hardest working Toyotaite shares the futon with his tsuma. The morning after, word from Toyota is that they are “currently looking at a revised plan that is based on current circumstances, and we plan to announce it.” Domo.

Anyone with sense should be able to remember that all the Japanese marques (sans Nissault)took massive hits last year due to natural disasters and are going to post obscene YoY gains due to a return to business-as-usual. I don’t think it really requires special explanation.

Re: Scotto:

Your point is taken…profit per unit is what matters, not volume. I want to know if GM is making any cheddar on those 9.3 million vehicles so they can pay me (us) the fuck back!

jandrews – everyone is welcome to their own opinions but to subscribe all of the recalls Honda and Toyota have faced in the last few years as being a Government conspiracy is wrong. The one Norm linked to seems real, the recent 300,000 Honda CRV/Acura ILX one for doors potentially opening as well as the ones my ’08 Sienna had (that model had no UIA issues) seem real. So it would be wrong to just dismiss any recalls those companies issue.

I do have to ask the question, if Ford or GM led in the recall count would there be a TTAC article on it?

Mike – Oh there are certainly some legitimate recalls. I’m saying the numbers are easily stuffed. How many of ToMoCo’s recalls in the past few years were for pedal-cutting related to the floormat idiocy that spurred up a few years back? If you stack floormats, you deserve to die, just like if you install your driver’s seat backwards and then reach around it to drive around town.

Regardless of all that, my point was thus: Recalls don’t result in production volume, as Norm implied. That’s just asinine.

Well as long as we’re on the subject of recalls, how the heck did Honda come in number 2? The (former) darling of consumer reports and JD Power? Aren’t they like in 7th place worldwide, but they are number 2 in recalls?

Not bad, not bad at all! Considering the tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster on the Japanese OEM’s and their suppliers. Not to mention the disgusting attempt to sabotage Toyota by the Obama/UAW/GM trifecta. May they rot in hell!

Ah yes I see! You are using a hitherto unknown and obscure meaning of the phrase “true motoring connoisseur”! How very clever! They say that Canadians do irony very well, well here is one Canadian that bows to one better than he at irony. Anyone who can equate a septic turd like a Cruze, a Malibu or a Silverado with vehicular excellence is indeed a master of the art!

The usual Japan Inc cheering gallery takes front and center stage. Pass the popcorn, I like having a front row seat to the decline of Western Civilization.
I remember the the bumper sticker, “Buy a Lada, send a dissident to camp.” How about , “Buy a Toyota, better yet, a Hyundai, and send the tax base for that new school or library to Asia.”
(Doesn’t have the same ring, even if equally true.)

One OEM? 10 million a year? OK, but what goes up always comes down, as there are only so many customers to go around. Standards of living are falling, not rising, especially in the USA.

I don’t care if it’s Toyota, GM, Honda, Ford, VW or Chrysler, that kind of output can’t be sustained unless an equal number of someone else’s production falls, either at one company or several, which may happen and is likely.

Perhaps it will come to a scenario seen in 1975’s “Rollerball” movie, where only about 5 companies produce every consumer good and supply power in the world…

Thanks for the clarification!
As far as money goes, that was a figure of speach. I am just a poor pensioner, can’t afford to bet real money!
I am suitably chastised for poor attention to deal in reading your post, for what it is worth!