Complete 2018 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

2018 Outlook: If you're of the belief that left-handed pitchers are at a disadvantage when calling Fenway Park their home, Sale certainly did his best to prove you wrong in 2017. Consider his accolades in his debut season for the Red Sox: His 308 strikeouts were the most by any pitcher in 15 years, and his 36.2 percent strikeout rate was third in history by an ERA-qualified pitcher. Sale posted 117 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP in his Fenway games, which ranked second and fourth in history, respectively, among ERA-qualified Red Sox left-handers. What's more, opponents continued trying to load lineups with right-handed hitters as they attempted to solve the Sale puzzle, yet he limited them to a .274 wOBA -- 13th among the 134 pitchers who faced at least 250 righties -- and he whiffed a major-league-leading 267, 98 more than anyone else. Sale is as good a strikeout source as there is and a clear member of the starting pitcher "Tier 1," a group with as much value today as it has had in any season so far this century.

2018 Outlook: Only three players in baseball scored more fantasy points (using ESPN's standard format) than Votto in 2017, and they were all pitchers: Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. It was the third consecutive year in which Votto was a top-10 overall performer in that format, and his elite combination of patience, contact and power makes him one of the most desirable picks there, as well as in sabermetrically angled scoring systems. Toss in the fact that he possesses arguably the most balanced splits -- whether lefty/righty or home/road -- and Votto's statistical floor is as high as anyone's in fantasy. He's the rare first baseman worthy of an early-round pick in Rotisserie leagues, despite having spent the majority of his career playing for noncontenders.

2018 Outlook: A fractured wrist suffered in mid-May cost Freeman 44 games and threw him off track of what was an MVP-caliber campaign at the time. He was hitting .341/.461/.748 with 14 home runs when he went down. To his credit, Freeman put up top-75 seasonal numbers using either Rotisserie or points-based scoring despite the significant missed time, even posting .282/.370/.518 numbers with five home runs in 29 September games -- a month during which he admitted he was playing through weakness in the left wrist. Although he might not feel like one -- playing for a rebuilding Braves team might have something to do with it -- Freeman is a premier talent in fantasy baseball, as capable of batting .300-plus as he is of hitting 30-plus home runs. Considering that the Braves' new ballpark plays a bit better for left-handed power than its predecessor, Turner Field, Freeman's power ceiling might in fact be even greater now.

2018 Outlook: Many players adjusted their launch angles in 2017 in hopes of boosting their home run outputs, but few exhibited as dramatic a shift in approach as Lindor. Previously a speedy on-base specialist, he shaved nearly 10 percent off his ground ball rate and elevated his launch angle by 6 degrees from 2016 to 2017 -- more than doubling his homer total and adding nearly 100 points of isolated power in the process. Better yet, he did this with no drop in contact or walk rate, a sign that with greater fortune on balls in play, he could reach .300-30 status. Lindor is also one of the more underrated baserunners in the game despite modest stolen base totals, and his outstanding defense will assure him maximum playing time, which only bolsters his fantasy value. He has become a true building-block player in points-based leagues, and he has the skills to be a five-category Rotisserie star as well. Don't let him sneak beyond the second round in your league.

2018 Outlook: About as consistent a player as there is, Rizzo has batted .281 with an average of 32 homers, 106 RBIs and 96 runs scored over the past three seasons, never deviating by more than 11 points of average, one home run, five RBIs or three runs scored. Rizzo also possesses one of the best batting eyes in the game, as one of only five players to qualify for the batting title in 2017 while walking more often than he struck out. That helped propel him to a top-20 finish in fantasy points. Now 28, Rizzo is one of the safest early-round selections you'll find.

2018 Outlook: Following a historic rookie season, what will Judge do for an encore? He enjoyed one of the most prolific power years in baseball history, setting a rookie record with 52 home runs that tied him for third by any player age 25 or younger. Judge's supporting metrics even back up his repeat prospects: He led the league in the Statcast metric "Barrels," which measures batted-ball events that provide the maximum outcome (.500-plus batting average and 1.500-plus slugging percentage), with 87, and he had the longest average fly ball distance (332.3 feet). Still, pitchers seemed to figure Judge out during the second half of the season as well as the postseason. His three-true-outcomes (home run, strikeout or walk) approach subjected him to streakiness and a low batting average, making him a slightly less attractive pick in points-based leagues. He's due some regression and could be overvalued given how prolific his 2017 campaign was, but he's also likely to once again be one of the best power sources in baseball and a particularly excellent pick in leagues that utilize on-base and/or slugging percentage instead of batting average.

2018 Outlook: Although his final 2017 numbers had the look of an age-influenced down year, Donaldson roared back with a .281/.401/.604, 25-homer second half that restored his status as a strong early-round pick. In his defense, the early-season DL trip that cost him 38 team games was the first such stint in his career, and the calf issue was probably responsible for some of his lackluster June and July numbers. At the same time, Donaldson is now 32 years of age and subject to increasing age- and injury-related risk, which makes him a weaker building-block pick in an era when many 25-and-under players are breaking through as the game's newest stars. Don't write him off just yet, but keep those risks as well as the prospect that he could be traded into a less homer-friendly environment in mind when considering Donaldson.

2018 Outlook: Already one of the best contact hitters in the game -- his 88.6 percent mark the past two seasons was third out of 131 players with at least 1,000 plate appearances -- Ramirez added some pop to his game in a breakthrough 2017. That was, in large part, due to a nearly 5 percent rise in his fly ball rate and nearly 2-degree rise in his average launch angle, things that bode well for his prospects of repeating a .300-plus average and 20-plus homers. Ramirez's skill set makes him low-risk, and he's one of the few in the game who brings dual infield position eligibility to the table -- second and third base -- but he probably isn't the top-15 overall Rotisserie or top-10 point performer he was a year ago. Expect mild regression, but don't let him slip more than couple rounds in your draft.

2018 Outlook: Inexplicably, after putting forth one of the most productive second halves of 2017 of any player in baseball, Martinez lingered on the free-agent market deep into February, before finally signing with the Red Sox. During said second half, Martinez managed the game's best slugging percentage (.751), isolated power (.445), home-run rate (11.3 percent of his plate appearances) and wOBA (.472), his 31 home runs trailing only Giancarlo Stanton, thriving in one of the game's most hitting-friendly environments following his mid-season trade to the Diamondbacks. While Martinez's power metrics are destined to naturally regress, as that half-year was historic and practically impossible to repeat, and Fenway Park's Green Monster could convert a handful of his homers into extra-base hits, what he loses in that department he could gain in terms of runs/RBIs/plate appearances by joining a loaded lineup. He's capable of a batting average anywhere from .275-.300, and 30-plus-homer power, assuming he can stay healthy enough to accrue the at-bats to get there. Martinez is well worth an early-round pick.

2018 Outlook: With the exception of his stolen base total, Springer's arrow seems to be pointing upward in every aspect of his offensive game. In 2017, he set career highs in almost every offensive category, despite appearing in 22 fewer games than in the season before. Then he broke through on the national stage when he earned World Series MVP honors. In the process, Springer made much more consistent contact than he had at any stage of his pro career, increasing his chances of a repeat performance. The sole criticisms to be had are that his stolen base total and rate have each of the past two seasons and that he hits more ground balls than your typical power hitter -- somewhat limiting his power ceiling -- but neither is enough to bump him out of the early rounds.

2018 Outlook: Between Cody Bellinger's historic season and Seager's missed postseason time due to a back injury, the shortstop might have slipped beneath the radar in terms of star-caliber fantasy picks. Seager's sophomore year, however, wasn't really much less statistically impressive than his 2016 Rookie of the Year season. His underlying skills all seemed to improve: more walks, more hard contact, fewer ground balls, fewer bad swings on pitches outside the strike zone. In short, Seager was the young shortstop who didn't have the eye-popping 2017, yet possesses comparable skills to any of the elite players at his position. He's a legitimate early-round pick and a building block for those in dynasty leagues.

2018 Outlook: Previously one of the most durable pitchers in baseball and a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher four years straight (2013-16), Bumgarner was unfortunately lost for 75 team games beginning in April, when he suffered bruised ribs and an AC sprain in his pitching shoulder in a dirt bike accident. At the time, he was pitching like the ace he had long been, but the injury adversely impacted his numbers thereafter, as he had a 3.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21.6 strikeout rate and 90.7 mph average fastball velocity in his final 13 starts, all of those rates easily worse than he had in any of his four full seasons prior. Bumgarner's injuries almost assuredly diminished his skills last season, but did rest over the winter provide him ample time to recapture his prior ace form, or will the injuries have permanent repercussions? His spring training could provide hints, but even at less than peak form, he's still capable of top-10 starter production.

2018 Outlook: While his rookie campaign was somewhat overshadowed by Aaron Judge's historic numbers, Bellinger's year wasn't much less excellent. Bellinger set a National League rookie record for home runs (39), with supporting fly ball and hard-contact metrics comparable to the rookie year rates of Ryan Braun, Kris Bryant and Judge, when looking exclusively at players of this century. Like Judge, though, pitchers seemed to adapt to Bellinger late in the regular season and in the postseason, and if you watched the World Series, you witnessed his weakness for breaking pitches down and in. Scouts have long felt that Bellinger's power is greater than his hit tool, so he might be a streaky type, subject to a low batting average but with a homer total that contends for the league lead. Expect some regression, but his skill set supports his candidacy for an early-round pick, which is slightly stronger in Rotisserie than points-based leagues.

2018 Outlook: Injuries have dogged Strasburg throughout his eight-year career, as he has averaged just 24.1 starts per season (prorating his 2010 debut, which was split between the minors and majors). But when healthy, he has provided numbers competitive with almost anyone's in the game. His eight-start performance to conclude 2017, after missing 23 team games with a nerve impingement in his pitching elbow, is compelling evidence: Strasburg's 0.84 ERA led the league, his 0.78 WHIP was third best and 31.7 percent strikeout rate was fifth best. He's also top 10 in baseball in all three categories since his June 8, 2010, big league debut (among pitchers with at least 100 starts). Selecting him is taking a chance on his Cy Young-caliber talent on a per-start basis and knowing you'll probably need someone to fill in during his likely injury absences. That's a more palatable strategy today than it was in the past, at least.

2018 Outlook: Regression to the mean meant Dozier went from 42 to 34 home runs from 2016 to 2017, but his offensive numbers remained excellent, as did his underlying skills, earning him a place within the top 35 fantasy players, whether using rotisserie or points-based scoring. He's an extreme fly baller, with his high launch angle providing him great odds of a third consecutive season leading his position in home runs, even if his batting average is middling. What's more, Dozier is a capable base stealer, posting double-digit totals in each of his five full seasons in the majors, further bolstering his value. He's one of the safest picks you'll find at second base and worthy of an early-round pick.