At 2.00 p.m. today, Wednesday 16th August, 2017,an area of disturbed weather associated with a lowpressure system was located approximately 1285kmeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving westward atapproximately 30 km/h.

This disturbance has not been well defined as itcontends with an environment of dry Saharan airbut over the last 12 hours it has become somewhatmore organized. There is a 40% chance (mediumchance) of tropical cyclone development over thenext 24 to 48 hours and a 50% chance (mediumchance) of tropical cyclone development over thenext 3 to 4 days. Regardless of intensification,this disturbance will trigger moderate to heavyrainfall on Friday, across portions of theWindward Islands, north of Trinidad and Tobago.

The progress of this system is being closelymonitored and persons with interests in theWindward Islands should pay close attention toinformation being issued by the Trinidad andTobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), by visitingour website at www.metoffice.gov.tt, downloadingour mobile app (search:TT Met Office) andfollowing us on Facebook and Twitter. The TTMS isreminding citizens that we are in the rainy seasonand adequate preparations must be made to preservelife and property against adverse weatherconditions.

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDADAND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL CYCLONETHREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.

The TTMS will continue to monitor this area ofdisturbed weather and will issue another bulletinat 8:00 a.m. tomorrow, Thursday 17th August 2017,or sooner if the situation warrants.

INFORMATION BULLETIN #2 AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHEREAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES At 2.00 a.m. today,Thursday 17th August, 2017, an area of disturbedweather associated with a low pressure system waslocated approximately 1000km east of the LesserAntilles, moving westward at approximately 30km/h.

There is a 60% chance (medium chance) of tropicalcyclone development over the next 24 to 48 hoursand a 70% chance (high chance) of tropical cyclonedevelopment over the next 3 to 4 days. Regardlessof intensification, this disturbance will triggermoderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds onFriday, across portions of the Windward Islands,north of Trinidad and Tobago.

The progress of this system is being closelymonitored and persons with interests in theWindward Islands should pay close attention toinformation being issued by the Trinidad andTobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), by visitingour website at www.metoffice.gov.tt, downloadingour mobile app (search:TT Met Office) andfollowing us on Facebook and Twitter. The TTMS isreminding citizens that we are in the rainy seasonand adequate preparations must be made to preservelife and property against adverse weatherconditions.

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDADAND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL CYCLONETHREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.

The TTMS will continue to monitor this area ofdisturbed weather and will issue another bulletinat 2:00 p.m. today, Thursday 17th August, 2017, orsooner if the situation warrants.

I doh understand them...when Bret was coming directly at us, they never had these updates...this thing way north and all of a sudden they concerned....but according to the nhc..it is now classed as potential cyclone 9

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered nearlatitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is movingtoward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected tocontinue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, thedisturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into theeastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone latertoday or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm beforereaching the Windward islands.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become atropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate thedisturbance this afternoon.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach theLesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, makingoutside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical stormconditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands fromMartinique southward to Grenada. These rains could causelife-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE LESSERANTILLES UPGRADED TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONENINE

At 11.00 a.m. today, Thursday 17th August, 2017,the area of disturbed weather associated with alow pressure system was upgraded to PotentialTropical Cyclone Nine. A Potential TropicalCyclone refers to a disturbance that has not yetdeveloped into a tropical cyclone but has thepotential of bringing tropical storm or hurricaneconditions to land within 48 hours. PotentialTropical Cyclone Nine is centred near 13.1 °Nlatitude 54.1°W longitude or approximately 585 kmeast of Barbados and is moving westward at 28 km/hand this general motion is expected to continuefor the next few days. Maximum sustained winds arenear 55 km/h with higher gusts. This disturbanceis expected to become a tropical cyclone latertoday or tonight. An Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate thedisturbance this afternoon.

On the forecast track, the disturbance poses noimmediate threat to Trinidad and Tobago and shouldmove through the Windward Islands and into theCaribbean Sea on Friday. The leading periphery ofthis system could produce rainfall totals of 50to 100 mm as well as gusty winds across portionsof the Windward Islands, north of Trinidad andTobago from later this afternoon into Friday.

The progress of this system is being closelymonitored and persons with interests in theWindward Islands should pay close attention toinformation being issued by the Trinidad andTobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), by visitingour website at www.metoffice.gov.tt, downloadingour mobile app (search:TT Met Office) andfollowing us on Facebook and Twitter. The TTMS isreminding citizens that we are in the rainy andhurricane season and adequate preparations must bemade to preserve life and property against adverseweather conditions. We wish to further inform thegeneral public that the TTMS is the officialTrinidad and Tobago government source of weatherinformation for our local, regional andinternational stakeholders. WE WISH TOUNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD AND TOBAGOIS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT, WATCH ORWARNING.

The TTMS will continue to monitor thisPotential Tropical Cyclone and will issue anotherbulletin at 2:00 p.m. today, Thursday 17th August,2017, or sooner if the situation warrants.