This blog functions like an exhaust valve to bring out my cluttered and sometimes confused thoughts. Please give your comments so that we can make this more useful, with wider perspectives. You may find my micro-blogs on Twitter @jay_ambadi.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

To Talk, or Not to Talk? That is the Question!

The diplomacy between India and Pakistan
stands reduced to a simple question. To talk, or not to talk? There are any
number of talks, just to decide whether to talk or not. Perhaps, no other
subject has consumed so much debating time of the so called national news
channels of Indian television?

The issue is really complicated.
Talking with Pakistan can be perceived as a sign of the weakness of an Indian Prime
Minister. The entire media could be at your throats, accusing you of selling
out nation’s pride and interests. Ask Dr. Manmohan Singh! Trying to talk with
Pakistan can also become a sign of strength for a Prime Minister, at least in
the eyes of the committed bhakts. When I say Bhakts that include the modified
media. Ask Mr. Modi!

Even the supporters of talk, or the
‘Aman ki Asha’ can become heroes or traitors, depending on the climate in Delhi
durbars.

The current Prime Minister is well
aware of the situation as he was an expert on how to deal with Pakistan, until
he became the Prime Minister. Mr. Modi had thrilled his support base by his ‘Pakistan
ko uni ke basha mein samjhayein’ (Make Pakistan understand in its own language)
type dialogues. How his tweets that highlighted the weakness of his predecessor
had induced many a virat dream of a defeated Pakistan, among his bhakts!

That leads to the question why Mr.
Modi suddenly became very fond of visits and talks. I am not privy to which
language Mr. Modi uses during his interactions with Pakistan, be it talking to its
Prime Minister, gifting sarees, or touching the feet of the family members of Nawas
Sheriff. Whether it is ‘uni ki basha’ or ‘khud ki bhasha’ I am all for the
talks and such niceties between the immediate neighbors. His bhakts who used to object any attempt by
his predecessors would surely close their eyes when he is the one making the
attempt- be it fuel price increase, GST, or even talk with Pakistan. Let us not
even count those jholawallahs who suggest promotion of some of the crony
businesses with Pakistan as the real reason for the sudden change! That means,
only those who are scared of the possibility of Mr. Modi getting a Nobel Prize
for Peace are left, to object to his visit and talks. What if a Nobel Prize for
Peace finally manages, perhaps, to clean his image from the stains of 2002?

My apologies for drifting away from
the subject of this post. Yes, the question is to talk, or not to talk! The question
is not as simple as it might look. It is complicated by many factors. Firstly,
whenever you want to talk to Pakistan, you need to live with the fact that
Pakistan had not acted on Mumbai terror attack or on harboring India’s most
wanted terrorists and underworld dons. Unlike in the past, a Modi cannot even be
expected to write ‘love letters’ on these issues, to Pakistan. Secondly, you also
know that Pakistan is either not willing, or not capable of acting on the
demands related to Mumbai attack or Indian fugitives, for various reasons.
Thirdly, you never know who will ultimately call the shots in Pakistan. So long
as it was under the Military rule, matters were relatively simple. With the
democratic governments in Pakistan, one never knows where the real power is located.
Last but not the least, you also know any attempt to talk will coincide with
renewed attacks across the border, either in the form of ceasefire violations
at the Line of Control or terror attacks inside the Indian territories. All
these factors make it much safer for any Prime Minister, just to procrastinate and
refuse to answer the question.

All the factors that usually affect
the Indo-Pak talks remained the same. Only Mr. Modi’s willingness to take the
initiative changed. Modi even dared to do an unscheduled stopover at Lahore in
a show of exemplary neighborly relations. Apparently, the newfound friendship
among neighbors changed nothing on the ground. Even as Modi was walking at Lahore,
holding hands with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Pakistan based terrorists
were crossing the border to carry out another attack in India. Everyone, except
the incorrigible optimists, had expected some terror or ceasefire violation as
a result of the renewed attempt at talks. In fact, if anyone had gone ahead
with the attempts to talk, without considering such possibilities then the only
conclusion is that they are grossly ill-suited for the job!

Pathankot airbase attack happened. This
time it was not on the hapless civilians of an unsuspecting Mumbai, but one of
the critical establishments of the armed forces of India that the terrorists
chose to attack. The advanced information received (an act of providence or
stupidity of terrorists) and the bungling that followed (with some ‘unfortunate’
deaths) are well known. To stick to the subject, as predictable as it can get,
the clamor to discontinue the proposed talks with Pakistan became shrill.

There are indications that the
proposed talks at the level of Foreign Secretaries might be affected by the Pathankot
attack. Even the official statements from
the Indian side gives such an impression. This situation is despite the fact that
everyone knew all along that the terrorists and their handlers would try to
stall the talks by carrying out more terror attacks. So, where does that leave our question, to
talk or not to talk?

To my mind, there are only two ways
to go ahead with any talks with Pakistan. The first is to ensure that no
cross-border terror attempt succeeds in India, but that would require a much
better response than what we saw in Pathankot. The second way is to continue
with the talks, irrespective of any terror attack. Not sure how palatable that
will be, politically, but refusing to discontinue the talks will remove the motivation
for carrying out more terror attacks. If
the terror attacks are carried out to stall the peace talks, then the logic
suggests that we do not oblige the terrorists by discontinuing the talks!

Will Mr. Modi continue talking to
Pakistan, despite Pathankot? Will he wait for the terrorists in Pakistan to stop
targeting India, before initiating any further talks? Will he ensure measures to prevent any repeat
of Pathankot type attacks in future, despite any or no progress in the talks
with Pakistan? Will someone from the Indian Government let the nation know what
is in its (or more importantly, in his) mind?

Only one thing is clear…..it is futile
to initiate talks, only to stall them as soon as the terrorists demand it ‘uni
ki basha mein.’

P.S.: I have deliberately ignored the question, whether we can stop the cross-border terror by merely agreeing not to talk any more!