The American Cinema Editors’ set of ACE Eddie nominees includes a colorful variety of Oscar stragglers and late breakers ranging from Sicario and Joy toStar Wars: The Force Awakens and Trainwreck, but poses a major problem for established Best Picture frontrunners in an Oscar year where no clear frontrunner has yet to emerge.

With a rather unorthodox set of nominees, the ACE is the latest precursor awards body to stir the Oscar pot, leaving notable contenders like Spotlight and Carol out in the cold following yesterday’s National Society of Film Critics Awards, where both films took major awards including Best Picture and Best Director, respectively.

You have to go all the way back to Oscar year 1990 (Driving Miss Daisy) to find a set of ACE Eddie nominations that doesn’t include a Best Picture winner. Prior to that, Oscar crossover is much more infrequent, as you’ll see on the following list of Best Picture winners that did not receive ACE Eddie nominations:

Oscar year 1990: Driving Miss Daisy

Oscar year 1984: Terms of Endearment

Oscar year 1982: Chariots of Fire

Oscar year 1981: Ordinary People

Oscar year 1980: Kramer vs. Kramer

Oscar year 1978: Annie Hall

Oscar year 1975: The Godfather Part II

Oscar year 1970: Midnight Cowboy

Oscar year 1967: A Man for All Seasons

Oscar year 1962: West Side Story

Because the ACE Eddie nominations are born from the tastes of working industry professionals, we must take their perspective seriously, especially given crossover membership with The Academy and visibility while Oscar ballots are in the hands of AMPAS members (voting opened on December 30). Recent history would tell us that, strictly on paper, Spotlight and Carol now have an extremely low chance of taking Best Picture, while critical favorite Mad Max: Fury Road, which has consistently appeared as a nominee (in one way or another) on just about every precursor awards list, bounds ahead as the likely Best Picture winner. The Big Short, which has quietly cemented its place near the front of the Best Picture pack, adds yet another precursor nomination to its mantle here. Adam McKay’s comedy-drama now has bonafide guild support following its four Golden Globe nominations, two SAG nominations, a spot on the AFI Top 10 list, and seven Critics’ Choice Award nominations.

It’s a bit troubling that a consensus has yet to form around a single film. Spotlight, Carol, and Mad Max: Fury Road have undoubtedly captured the hearts of critics, but no film has yet to hit a consistent stride through the season. We have a busy week ahead of us, with the ADG and PGA announcing tomorrow, followed by the ASC, WGA, and BAFTA by the end of the week. All of this happens prior to the close of Oscar voting on January 8.

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Once, when he was three, Joey Nolfi fancied himself as an exotic type and boldly told someone that he was “from North America.” He’s taken that status as self-appointed ambassador of the North American people and built with it a budding career in entertainment journalism. In other words: he’s written about awards season, film, pop culture, and the arts for a variety of publications including Entertainment Weekly, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, AFROPUNK, East End Fashion Magazine, and Naima Mora Online. He also acts, makes films, moonlights as a DJ/general nightlife legend, and can’t wait for the day that his friends have children that he can to take to the zoo one time and then spend the rest of his life patting himself on the back for it.

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Editor-in-Chief Joey Nolfi sifted through 87 years of Best Picture winners to come up with a formula that gauges Oscar traction. He ranked the films heading into this year's race, so you should check it out.

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RT @joeynolfi: AND ALSO Happy Presidents’ Day to President Natalie Portman at the end of Mars Attacks https://t.co/NrJGzYnAYh