Candidates R13 – Kramnik draws, Carlsen wins

3/31/2013 – Another heart-stopping round. Vladimir Kramnik had a very nice position and looked right on the path to victory, in his game against Boris Gelfand and in the tournament. This because Magnus Carlsen had a very drawish position on his board against Teimour Radjabov. But the latter blundered in the endgame and Carlsen drew level with Kramnik. The event goes all the way to the wire.

From March 14 to April 1, 2013, FIDE and AGON – the World Chess Federation’s
commercial partner – are staging the 2013 Candidates Tournament for the
World Chess Championship 2013. It will be the strongest tournament of its kind
in history. The venue is The IET,
2 Savoy Place, London. The Prize Fund to be shared by the players totals €510,000.
The winner of the Candidates will become the Challenger to Viswanathan Anand
who has reigned as World Champion since 2007. The main sponsor for the Candidates
is State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic SOCAR,
which has sponsored elite events chess in the past.

Round thirteen report

After the gut-wrenching events of round twelve, the question on everyone’s
mind was whether Magnus Carlsen will be able to yank the win from under Vladimir
Kramnik. The most probably scenario for that to happen is if the young number
one were to outscore the Russian by half a point and beat him on the second
tiebreak: number of wins. Still, the former World Champion could simply deny
this were he to win as well.

The venue: the Institution of Engineering and Technology
(IET) in London

Round 13 March 31 at 14:00

Teimour Radjabov

0-1

Magnus Carlsen

Alexander Grischuk

½-½

Levon Aronian

Vladimir Kramnik

½-½

Boris Gelfand

Peter Svidler

1-0

Vassily Ivanchuk

Playchess commentary: GM Daniel King

In spite of the understandable focus on the leaders’ games, the other
two games were not denuded of interest. Alexander Grischuk tried to take advantage
of a frail Levon Aronian, weakened by the unexpected rut he had run into, and
despite keeping a solid initiative for most of the game, was unable to set up
a knockout punch. They drew.

Peter Svidler had similar designs on Vassily Ivanchuk, as the latter has not
only been unable to maintain any consistency, and his tournament will be mostly
remembered for his dramatic victory of Magnus Carlsen, as well as the astounding
number of games lost on time. In the post-game conference, Svidler explained
that his choice of play had been designed around psychological analysis more
than chess. He felt that the Ukrainian would be steering for a principled continuation,
and that is why, in a French Advance, he deliberately went for a very double-edged
continuation at the cost of a pawn. Although he had great play for his risk,
he never needed to work out the hardest lines as Ivanchuk’s flag fell
on move 30.

Vladimir Kramnik’s game against Boris Gelfand was easily the most exciting
of the day, despite the pyrotechnics in Svidler-Ivanchuk, since so much hung
on its result. The opening was a Fianchetto Gruenfeld but somehow the transition
to the middlegame went sour on the Israeli as he found himself trying to avoid
disaster. After 23.b5! the Russian was suddenly in the driver seat as he broke
through on the queenside, positioning his pieces with his legendary precision.
The cost came at mutual time trouble with enormous complications for both, and
though he dealt what might have been a death blow with 32.Nxf7!, the computer
precise 36.g4!! eluded him and by the time control his edge was mostly gone.
He tried to keep his chances alive, understanding how valuable a win would be,
but Boris Gelfand, the great defender he is, held fast and a draw was concluded.

When Kramnik and Gelfand shook hands, things did not look so bad for the Russian.
Aside from Jeff Sonas’s calculations predicting a 65% chance for him to
win the event, Teimour Radjabov’s game against Magnus Carlsen looked about
as lifeless as the Gobi desert. The situation of the two players was crystal
clear. Radjabov knew that Carlsen had to play for a win at all costs, and the
question was whether he would be able to weather the Norwegian storm. This was
compounded even more by the fact that even a casual glance at Kramnik-Gelfand
for much of the game, would show that his Russian rival might end it all that
very day with a win.

Carlsen remained true to himself, and his style, and may have missed some attacking
chances earlier on, but tried to keep a simple, yet complex middlegame/endgame
going. It seemed quite hopeless as the Azeri held on, refusing to buckle, but
little by little the pressure built and the strain got to him. It brought to
mind a proverb in Portuguese that goes, “Agua mole em pedra dura, tanto bate até que fura”, which translates roughly as “Soft water will
keep on beating against the hard rock until it wears through”. Sure enough,
the chinks in Radjabov’s armor began to appear, and on move 80 he stumbled
fatally for a historic and miraculous win for Magnus Carlsen.

GM Daniel King analyses the game Radjabov vs Carlsen

Current standings

So what are the odds now? Jeff Sonas explains

With one round left, the tiebreak situation has clarified completely: if Magnus
Carlsen and Vladimir Kramnik finish in a tie for first place, then Carlsen wins
the tiebreak because he will have one more win than Kramnik. So all of the previously
Sonneborn-Berger complexities, dependencies upon other games, etc., are no longer
relevant.

Kramnik needs to pull ahead of Carlsen in order to win the tournament, and
has the great disadvantage of playing Black in the final against Vassily Ivanchuk,
while Carlsen has the white pieces in the final round against Peter Svidler.
So everything hinges upon the outcome of those two games. It is possible to
simulate millions of possibilities, and to quote odds of each player winning
the tournament. But these are not as trustworthy because the two games are not
independent: obviously Carlsen and Kramnik will be paying close attention to
each other's games, and certainly adjusting their own plans accordingly. But
the simple calculation tells us this:

Carlsen's chances in Round 14

Win 37.4%

Draw 60.4%

Loss 2.2%

Kramnik's chances in Round 14

Win 24.1%

Draw 63.8%

Loss 12.1%

And it is easily seen from this, that the tournament odds have become:

Carlsen wins outright

36%

Carlsen and Kramnik share first place, and Carlsen wins the tiebreak
(more wins)

48%

Kramnik wins outright

16%

Carlsen therefore now has an 84% chance to win the tournament, and Kramnik
has a 16% chance to win the tournament.

Replay all games of the round

Select games from the dropdown menu above the board

Schedule and results

Round 1 March 15 at 14:00

Levon Aronian

½-½

Magnus Carlsen

Boris Gelfand

½-½

Teimour Radjabov

Vassily Ivanchuk

½-½

Alexander Grischuk

Peter Svidler

½-½

Vladimir Kramnik

Playchess commentary: GM Daniel
King

Round 2 March 16 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

½-½

Vladimir Kramnik

Alexander Grischuk

½-½

Peter Svidler

Teimour Radjabov

1-0

Vassily Ivanchuk

Levon Aronian

1-0

Boris Gelfand

Playchess commentary: GM Chris
Ward

Round 3 March 17 at 14:00

Boris Gelfand

0-1

Magnus Carlsen

Vassily Ivanchuk

0-1

Levon Aronian

Peter Svidler

1-0

Teimour Radjabov

Vladimir Kramnik

½-½

Alexander Grischuk

Playchess commentary: GM Yasser
Seirawan

Round 4 March 19 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

1-0

Alexander Grischuk

Teimour Radjabov

½-½

Vladimir Kramnik

Levon Aronian

½-½

Peter Svidler

Boris Gelfand

½-½

Vassily Ivanchuk

Playchess commentary: GM Daniel
King

Round 5 March 20 at 14:00

Vassily Ivanchuk

½-½

Magnus Carlsen

Peter Svidler

½-½

Boris Gelfand

Vladimir Kramnik

½-½

Levon Aronian

Alexander Grischuk

½-½

Teimour Radjabov

Playchess commentary: GM Yasser
Seirawan

Round 6 March 21 at 14:00

Peter Svidler

0-1

Magnus Carlsen

Vladimir Kramnik

½-½

Vassily Ivanchuk

Alexander Grischuk

½-½

Boris Gelfand

Teimour Radjabov

0-1

Levon Aronian

Playchess commentary: GM Chris
Ward

Round 7 March 23 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

½-½

Teimour Radjabov

Levon Aronian

½-½

Alexander Grischuk

Boris Gelfand

½-½

Vladimir Kramnik

Vassily Ivanchuk

½-½

Peter Svidler

Playchess commentary: GM Alejandro
Ramirez

Round 8 March 24 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

½-½

Levon Aronian

Teimour Radjabov

0-1

Boris Gelfand

Alexander Grischuk

1-0

Vassily Ivanchuk

Vladimir Kramnik

1-0

Peter Svidler

Playchess commentary: GM Alejandro
Ramirez

Round 9 March 25 at 14:00

Vladimir Kramnik

½-½

Magnus Carlsen

Peter Svidler

½-½

Alexander Grischuk

Vassily Ivanchuk

1-0

Teimour Radjabov

Boris Gelfand

1-0

Levon Aronian

Playchess commentary: GM Maurice
Ashley

Round 10 March 27 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

1-0

Boris Gelfand

Levon Aronian

1-0

Vassily Ivanchuk

Teimour Radjabov

½-½

Peter Svidler

Alexander Grischuk

0-1

Vladimir Kramnik

Playchess commentary: GM Yasser
Seirawan

Round 11 March 28 at 14:00

Alexander Grischuk

½-½

Magnus Carlsen

Vladimir Kramnik

1-0

Teimour Radjabov

Peter Svidler

1-0

Levon Aronian

Vassily Ivanchuk

½-½

Boris Gelfand

Playchess commentary: GM Chris
Ward

Round 12 March 29 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

0-1

Vassily Ivanchuk

Boris Gelfand

½-½

Peter Svidler

Levon Aronian

0-1

Vladimir Kramnik

Teimour Radjabov

½-½

Alexander Grischuk

Playchess commentary: GM Daniel
King

Round 13 March 31 at 14:00

Teimour Radjabov

0-1

Magnus Carlsen

Alexander Grischuk

½-½

Levon Aronian

Vladimir Kramnik

½-½

Boris Gelfand

Peter Svidler

1-0

Vassily Ivanchuk

Playchess commentary: GM Daniel
King

Round 14 April 1 at 14:00

Magnus Carlsen

-

Peter Svidler

Vassily Ivanchuk

-

Vladimir Kramnik

Boris Gelfand

-

Alexander Grischuk

Levon Aronian

-

Teimour Radjabov

Playchess commentary: GM Maurice
Ashley

The games start at 14:00h = 2 p.m. London time = 15:00h European time,
17:00h Moscow, 8 a.m. New York. You can find your regional starting time here.
Note that Britain and Europe switch
to Summer time on March 31, so that the last two rounds will start an hour
earlier for places that do not swich or have already done so (e.g. USA). The
commentary on Playchess begins one hour after the start of the games
and is free for premium members.

Albert SilverBorn in the US, he grew up in Paris, France, where he completed his Baccalaureat, and after college moved to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He had a peak rating of 2240 FIDE, and was a key designer of Chess Assistant 6. In 2010 he joined the ChessBase family as an editor and writer at ChessBase News. He is also a passionate photographer with work appearing in numerous publications.

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