Tuesday 26 February 2013 08.16 EST
First published on Tuesday 26 February 2013 08.16 EST

Growth in retail sales have slowed this month, according to a survey by the Confederation of British Industry, reflecting the reluctance among shoppers to spend on the high street.

The CBI's latest quarterly distributive trades survey, which includes the first two weeks of February, found that 37% of retailers experienced an increase in their volume of sales in the year to February and 29% reported a reduction.

The resulting balance of +8% was the lowest figure since last September and was the third consecutive month in which the pace of growth had slowed.

Analysts said the figures were largely the result of persistently high inflation and low wage rises hitting household disposable incomes. The gap between wage rises, which are running at 1.3% and inflation at 2.7% is expected to remain during the rest of the year.

The survey emphasised the weak outlook after shops said that volume of orders fell sharply (-19%) against expectations they would remain flat (0%).

But sales volumes were higher than last year and pointed to a level of spending that could save the UK from a triple-dip recession.

"The fact that the CBI survey remains in positive territory gives good reason to believe that sales will rebound to some extent in February. As such, this will help further allay fears of a triple-dip recession, coming on the back of stronger than expected PMI [Purchasing Managers' Index] business survey data in January.

"However, it is clear that the retail environment remains tough, and that consumers are unlikely to step up their spending to any significant degree while inflation runs high, pay growth remains weak and job worries proliferate. Retailers are evidently seeing this first hand, causing expectations of sales in the month ahead to deteriorate to the weakest since September."

Barry Williams, Asda's chief merchandising officer for food, and chair of the CBI distributive trades survey panel said: "We all know trading is tough, and the bad weather hasn't exactly been encouraging shoppers to hit the high street lately. But there is a glimmer of hope for retailers with the news that sales are growing, even if at a slower pace than in recent months.

"Clearly, the road to recovery remains fragile. Worries about the economy, pay freezes and the rising cost of living will mean shoppers remain cautious for the foreseeable future."