Taipei, Oct. 25 (CNA) President Ma Ying-jeou has reiterated Taiwan's desire to purchase submarines from the United States in an interview with an American paper earlier this week.

'Some weapons are high on the list of items that we hope to procure, but we currently have no way to purchase them. Submarines, for instance, are one of those items,' Ma told the Washington Post in Taipei Thursday.

According to the Chinese transcript of the interview released by the Presidential Office on its website Friday, Ma responded to a broad range of questions in the interview, including cross-Taiwan Strait ties, relations with the United States, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and his achievements since assuming office.

Over the past five years, Ma said, the U.S. executive branch has sought congressional approval for the sale of three packages of arms to Taiwan, worth a total of US$18.3 billion -- the highest amount recorded in nearly two decades.

Some of the weapons in the three packages were ordered 10 years ago and will be delivered successively in the coming years, Ma said, adding that Taiwan took delivery of the first of 12 P-3C submarine-hunting aircraft in late September, with three more set for delivery by the end of this year.

Noting that the P-3C is an advanced anti-submarine aircraft, Ma said its addition to Taiwan's arsenal will help enhance the country's defense abilities.

While Taiwan can produce some of the defensive weapons it needs to protect national security, it still needs to purchase some U.S.-built arms, he noted.

'Submarines are one of these items,' Ma said, adding that it is very important for Taiwan to maintain a defense force strong enough to deter invasion.

He said Taiwan-U.S. relations are mutually beneficial, citing as proof the fact that in 2011, then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Taiwan as an 'important security and economic partner of the U.S.'

In an article on its official website Thursday, the Washington Post wrote that 'the U.S. has been a key defender of Taiwan, but it worries about anything that might complicate its already difficult relationship with China.'

The paper quoted Richard Bush, a former American Institute in Taiwan chairman, as saying that thanks to the warming cross-strait ties, the issue of Taiwan no longer dominates U.S.-China relations, allowing Washington to tackle other divisive bilateral issues such as cybersecurity, Syria and intellectual property protection.

In Thursday's interview, Ma described relations with the U.S. in recent years as good.

He also stressed that continuing sales of U.S. weapons are essential for Taiwan.

On the predictions by some U.S. scholars that U.S. support for Taiwan will decline in the face of China's growing global political and economic clout, Ma said that this has never been a mainstream view in either U.S. academic circles or the U.S. government.

Taiwan’s Navy has released a video showcasing its first self-developed stealth missile corvette, the Tuo Jiang.

The highly-maneuverable 500-ton warship underwent sea trials last month, according to the South China Morning Post, reaching speeds of more than 38 knots.

ADVERTISEMENT"The corvette will play the role of 'killer' to attack the enemy's vessel, as it can sail fast and get close to its target without being easily detected by radar," said Taiwan’s Central News Agency. The video, which was released on Wednesday, compares the corvette to American combat ship the USS Independence, according to the South China Morning Post.

Taiwanese media said that the new ship is part of an $800 million program to build between seven and 11 corvettes to protect against China’s aircraft carriers.

The Tuo Jiang is 198 feet long and 46 feet wide, with a range of 2,000 nautical miles. With a crew of 41, the ship will be equipped with Taiwanese Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III missiles.

Taiwan has been showing off its military hardware recently, according to the report, which highlighted the country’s large-scale military drill in September. The island is also developing its own ground-to-air missiles.

The Ching Chiang-class hulls 608 and 611 lie at anchorLittle by little, light craft in the Taiwanese navy are being given the means to wage asymmetrical warfare

The military has begun modifying its fleet of domestically made Ching Chiang-class patrol boats by equipping them with Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) ramjet-powered supersonic anti-ship missiles to counter large surface ships in the Taiwan Strait.

Developed by China Shipbuilding Corp — now known as CSBC Corp, Taiwan — in the 1990s, a total of 11 of the 500 tonne coastal patrol vessels entered service with the navy in 1999 and 2000. The ships were initially equipped with four HF-1 surface-to-surface missiles, one 40mm anti-aircraft gun and one 20mm gun.

In May last year, the Ministry of National Defense unveiled plans to outfit the navy’s eight Cheng Kung-class frigates and a number of Ching Chiang-class vessels with the HF-3, Taiwan’s “aircraft carrier killer” cruise missile developed by the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology. Modification work has begun on seven of the patrol boats, each of which is to be equipped with four HF-3 launchers, and that five Cheng Kung-class frigates had been outfitted with the missile so far as part of a NT$12 billion (US$406 million) program to arm the navy with 120 HF-3s.

HF-2 ASMs at Hetian Shan, HualienAlthough ministry sources have confirmed plans to deploy land-based HF-3s on the west and east coasts of Taiwan, the ministry denied reports last month that an extended range variant of the missile, currently at 300km, was under development. A longer-range HF-3 would allow Taiwan to deploy the missiles on the eastern coast and aim them at the Taiwan Strait while using mountainous geography, such as that found in Hualien, as cover from missile attacks by China, thus limiting exposure of the launchers.

Taiwan’s Navy has released a video showcasing its first self-developed stealth missile corvette, the Tuo Jiang.

The highly-maneuverable 500-ton warship underwent sea trials last month, according to the South China Morning Post, reaching speeds of more than 38 knots.

ADVERTISEMENT"The corvette will play the role of 'killer' to attack the enemy's vessel, as it can sail fast and get close to its target without being easily detected by radar," said Taiwan’s Central News Agency. The video, which was released on Wednesday, compares the corvette to American combat ship the USS Independence, according to the South China Morning Post.

Taiwanese media said that the new ship is part of an $800 million program to build between seven and 11 corvettes to protect against China’s aircraft carriers.

The Tuo Jiang is 198 feet long and 46 feet wide, with a range of 2,000 nautical miles. With a crew of 41, the ship will be equipped with Taiwanese Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III missiles.

Taiwan has been showing off its military hardware recently, according to the report, which highlighted the country’s large-scale military drill in September. The island is also developing its own ground-to-air missiles.

The Republic of China Navy has taken delivery of what could be the first of a new class of stealth corvettes, according to local press reports.

The locally built 500-ton Tuo Jiang was delivered to the Taiwanese Navy from shipbuilder Lung Teh Shipbuilding at the harbor of Su-ao in a Tuesday ceremony.

“With the completion of this new-generation warship, Taiwan’s naval combat capabilities have reached a milestone,” Taiwan’s Minister of Defense Yen Ming said during the ceremony.“The Tuo Jiang is the fastest and most powerful vessel of its kind in Asia, and underscores the Navy’s success in implementing the national policy of creating a self-sustaining defense.”

Taiwan has said it wants to purchase up to a dozen of the corvettes that can travel at speeds in excess of 40 knots and will likely be armed with a domestic supersonic anti-ship missile.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Foreign Ministry expressed anger on Thursday after two U.S. fighter jets landed in Taiwan, in a rare official contact between the militaries of the United States and the self-ruled democratic island.

Taiwan's Central News Agency said the two F-18s landed at an air force base in southern Taiwan on Wednesday after experiencing mechanical problems. It said it was not clear where they were coming from or where they were going.

"While this landing was unplanned and occurred exclusively out of mechanical necessity, it reflects well on Taiwan that they permitted pilots in distress to land safely," said U.S. Pentagon spokeswoman Henrietta Levin.

"China demands that the United States strictly abide by the 'one-China policy' ... and cautiously and appropriately handle this incident."

The United States is obligated to help Taiwan defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, when Washington severed formal ties with the island to recognize the People's Republic of China in Beijing.

U.S. weapons sales in recent years to Taiwan, or indeed any formal contact between the two armed forces, have provoked strong condemnation by China, but have not caused lasting damage to Beijing's relations with either Washington or Taipei.

China views Taiwan as a renegade province and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control.

While Taiwan and China have signed a series of landmark trade and economic agreements since 2008, political and military suspicions still run deep, especially in democratic Taiwan, where many fear China's true intentions.

China's military modernization has also been accompanied by a more assertive posture in its regional territorial disputes.

Taiwan will start building a new fleet of six mine counter measure (MCM) ships with help from Lockheed Martin and Italian shipbuilder Intermarine S.p.A., Lockheed announced last week during the EURONAVAL 2014 show in Paris.

The first ship in the class will be built at Intermarine’s shipyard in Italy and Lockheed will provide the ships MCM systems, according to the statement provided to USNI News on Monday.

The initial MCM is scheduled to deliver in 2019

The subsequent five 700-ton MCMs will be built by Ching Fu shipbuilding in Taiwan.

“Lockheed Martin will also serve as the ship’s system integrator and procure, integrate, install, and test the entire combat management system for all six ships,” read the statement.“Various sub-systems that will comprise the overall combat management system will be procured from numerous European companies.”

Taiwan currently fields about a dozen minesweepers ranging from two former U.S. Navy 1990s era Osprey-class mine hunters to four 1950s vintage U.S. built Belgium Adjutant-class mine hunters, according to U.S. Naval Institute’s Combat Fleets of the World.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly condemned the announcement as part of its long held position against foreign companies selling arms to Taiwan on Friday.

“China firmly opposes foreign arms sale to Taiwan and any form of military technology exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and foreign countries. This position is clear-cut and consistent,” said ministry spokesman Hong Lei on Friday.“We ask relevant countries to respect China’s core interests, adhere to the one-China principle, neither sell arms to Taiwan in any form nor assist Taiwan in developing its military equipment, and take concrete actions to support the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and peaceful reunification of China.”

Arms sales to Taiwan have been a historically touchy subject with Beijing. Chinese pressure on international vendors has left the U.S. the island nation’s primary supplier of weapons.

A 2010 $6 billion arms sale from the U.S. to Taiwan caused China to break off military to military relations with the U.S.

However the nature of the MCM deal is unlikely to cause the same level of rancor between Washington and Beijing.

“[The] sale of [MCMs] is largely defensive in posture and is unlikely to cause the same amount of consternation as the sale of missiles or aircraft,” according to a Monday analysis in Jane’s Defence Weekly.

Minehunters. Italy’s Intermarine S.p.A. and Lockheed Martin win a contract to support local construction of 6 mine countermeasures vessels (q.v. Sept 5/12), which will be built at a brand-new Ching Fu Shipbuilding facility in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The ships are expected to be about 52m long and 700t.

BY TIM FERRYON MAY 15, 20150Taiwan Navy's Perry-class frigate launches an ASROC (anti-submarine rocket) during the annual Han Kuang military exercises, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2014, off the east coast of Hualien, central Taiwan. (AP Photo/Wally Santana)Taiwan Navy's Perry-class frigate launches an ASROC (anti-submarine rocket) during the annual Han Kuang military exercises, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2014, off the east coast of Hualien, central Taiwan. (AP Photo/Wally Santana)Despite improved cross-Strait relations, China is continuing massive spending to build up its military capability, with Taiwan remaining prominently in the PLA’s crosshairs. Can advanced weapons procurement and the implementation of “asymmetrical strategies” enable Taiwan to meet the challenge of providing sufficient defensive strength?

On the face of it, Taiwan’s chances of prevailing in an outright military conflict with China would not seem very promising. China’s economic might, with a GDP of US$10.36 trillion – US$17.63 trillion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, according to the CIA – enables it to afford a defense budget that is now the second largest in the world, behind only the United States. Beijing’s announced defense budget will rise by 10% in 2015, to about US$145 billion, the fifth straight year of double-digit increases.

The true expenditure is likely far higher, and China has launched modernization programs throughout its forces in order to “fight and win short-duration, high-intensity, regional contingencies,” according to the 2014 China Report of the U.S. Department of Defense, which states that China’s weapons buildup includes fifth-generation fighter aircraft, advanced missile technology, and even the launch of an aircraft carrier.

In line with the longstanding aim of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to bring Taiwan under its rule, the report adds that “preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which includes deterring or defeating third-party intervention,” – that is, the United States – “remains the focus and primary driver of China’s military investment.”

In stark contrast, Taiwan’s defense budget stands at a mere NT$319.3 billion (US$10.7 billion), according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND). Taiwan struggles to keep its aging air force airborne, with nearly a quarter of the fleet comprised of Vietnam War-era F-5 fighter jets or hard-to-maintain French-built Mirage 2000s, while two of the nation’s four submarines date back to World War II and the other two are not much newer. At one time Taiwan could offset its smaller size with advanced weaponry, but China has closed the technological gap in many regards and now employs many weapons systems that are newer, more sophisticated, and more numerous than what Taiwan has available.

Military analysts in Taiwan say a Chinese invasion could be staved off for weeks or a month, providing time for the United States to come to the rescue. But many pundits question whether the United States would have the stomach for an armed conflict with China. They say that China’s advances in ballistic missile technology would now enable it to hit U.S. air bases in Okinawa and even Guam, along with aircraft carriers and other naval vessels. In 2009, defense research organization RAND Corporation concluded that with its Russian-made Su-27 and domestically produced J-10 multi-role fighter jets, along with PL-12 air-to-air missiles and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), China could prevail against even the latest in U.S. technology, the F-22 stealth tactical fighter jet. RAND estimates that despite higher kill ratios for U.S. fighters (as high as 27:1 for the F-22), China would be able to launch 3.7 times more sorties and win the war of attrition.

At one time Taiwan could offset its smaller size with advanced weaponry, but China has closed the technological gap.Since that report was issued, the threat from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force and Second Artillery, the unit in charge of the missile arsenal, has only increased as even more advanced weapons have come online.

J-10a_zhasThe domestically produced PLA J-10 multi-role fighter Jet poses a significant threat to U.S. air superiority in the region.“The stark reality is that these days, there is not much the U.S. can realistically do to help Taipei stand up to serious pressure from Beijing,” argues Hugh White, professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University in Canberra, in a widely circulated op-ed piece in the South China Morning Post.“China is simply too important economically, and too powerful militarily, for anyone to confront it on Taiwan’s behalf.”

The above is the bleak assessment of Taiwan’s defense situation given by many experts in military and international affairs. But are Taiwan’s chances in a military confrontation really so hopeless? There are several reasons to think not. In fact, despite the massive arsenal poised against Taiwan, recent history suggests that in an “asymmetrical war,” in which one power is far stronger than the other, the weaker power is often likely to come out on top.

The PRC's China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. showed off its newly developed CX-1 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile (shown here) and M20 ground-to-ground missile weapons system at last December's Zhuhai Air Show.

Chinese military theorist Yang Shaohua, in a paper for the Chinese Journal of International Politics entitled “How Can Weaker Powers Win,” observes several factors that can contribute to success for the weaker side. Higher motivation and great willingness to suffer on the part of weaker powers in defense of their autonomy are critical factors, as is the lack of resolve or willingness to bear the costs of a confrontation on the part of the strong state, particularly if the strong state is a democracy. Help for the weak actor from more powerful friends is also a factor.

But Yang notes that the most critical element is the strategy employed by the weak power. “The type of strategy the weaker power selects is critical to determining the final outcome of an asymmetric conflict,” Yang writes. “When the weak power opts for an asymmetric strategy, its ratio of victory reaches 91.7%.”

Though the term “asymmetric strategy” is often used to refer to guerrilla warfare or terrorism, it can actually mean a number of different kinds of approaches. In 2008, William Murray, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, published a paper entitled “Revisiting Taiwan’s Defense Strategy” that shook up the defense world by saying that rather than invest in high-profile weaponry aimed at countering a Chinese aerial bombardment head-on, Taiwan should invest more in weapon systems aimed at repelling an invasion near Taiwan’s shores.

“China’s recent military modernization has fundamentally altered Taiwan’s security options,” he wrote, citing China’s submarine capabilities and advanced missiles. He added that China’s ability to encircle the island with its navy and hit targets accurately with ballistic and cruise missiles have deprived the island of the advantage of geographic distance from China. Murray therefore suggests that Taiwan can no longer counter these threats in a “symmetrical manner” with anti-missile defense systems, submarines, warships, fighter jets, and P-3 maritime patrol aircraft. Instead, he wrote, Taiwan must “rethink and redesign its defense strategy, emphasizing the asymmetrical advantage of being the defender, seeking to deny the People’s

Republic its strategic objectives rather than attempting to destroy its weapons systems.”Murray contends that such a “porcupine strategy” would provide Taiwan with greater security at a far lower price tag. But the concept has hardly been universally accepted. Ian Easton, for example, research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, a U.S.-based defense think-tank, told Taiwan Business TOPICS by email that “porcupine strategies are for countries that will lose in a war.” Wrote Easton: “It’s an idea better fit for North Korea and Iran.”

“When the weak power opts for an asymmetric strategy, its ratio of victory reaches 91.7%.”On the other hand, defense specialist Richard Fisher says that many analysts consider Murray’s proposals to be “common sense,” and that Taiwan – with the encouragement of the U.S. Department of Defense – has undertaken many of Murray’s recommendations such as the procurement of small, fast attack boats and Rapid Runway Repair kits, the hardening of critical facilities such as airbase hangars and Command and Control (2C) centers, and the development of indigenous asymmetric weapons. Fisher, along with many analysts, considers the debate between high- and low-tech “a false choice for Taiwan.”

“To be sure, Taiwan requires an Army and Militia powerful enough to repel an invader but it also requires the ability to repel missile and air attacks and counter air and seaborne invasion forces before they reach the island,” he notes in an email. “The goal of Porcupine is to achieve deterrence by convincing Beijing that an invasion will surely fail, but by removing high-tech long-range combat systems, there is a danger that Beijing’s leadership will regard any reductions in high-tech defenses as an invitation to accelerate their invasion plans.”

Credible deterrentThe ROC armed forces operate under the doctrine of “resolute defense, credible deterrent,” and many knowledgeable commentators in Taiwan and the United States consider that Taiwan in fact is well-equipped to mount a staunch defense against a PRC attack. “Contrary to reports, Taiwan has the capacity to deny air superiority to China, and it is likely to maintain this capability well into the future,” Easton wrote last year in a paper for Project 2049 entitled “Able Archers: Taiwan Defense Strategy in an Age of Precision Strikes.” “By denying China uncontested control over the air domain, Taiwan can raise the costs of a maritime blockade or amphibious invasion attempt to a prohibitive level.”

Taiwan's National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology last December gave the media a look at is "Skybow" missile defense systems and Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles. Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology last December gave the media a look at is “Skybow” missile defense systems and Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles.According to Easton, Taiwan, with help from the United States, is building “what may be the world’s most robust air and missile defense network,” including early-warning radar, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) assets, missile defense systems, fighter jet upgrades, airbase hardening and resiliency, and even UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). Taiwan also plans to acquire next-generation stealth combat aircraft and seems intent in building its own submarines. “Improved air and missile defense is crucial to undermining potential PRC aggression,” Easton notes.

More needs to be done, though. Despite the clear threat presented by China, Taiwan’s defense spending between 2009 and 2014 declined by an average of -1.6% annually, while the 2015 defense budget submitted by MND calls for a modest 2.6% increase. With a GDP of US$505 billion (US$1.02 trillion PPP), a small fraction of the PRC’s, Taiwan cannot afford to bridge the gap in defense spending. Still, the relative declines in Taiwan’s military spending worry international defense experts for several reasons.

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and the Center for Strategic and International Studies last year jointly published a paper entitled, “Taiwan’s Defense Spending: Security Consequences of Choosing Butter over Guns.” The theme is that reduced defense spending could “provide incentives for Beijing to pressure Taiwan” for unification by “diminishing Taiwan’s ability to maintain a credible deterrent against an attack.” Low defense spending also “raises questions about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense,” which the paper suggests could have “implications” for U.S. willingness to respond to an attack upon Taiwan.Has Taiwan become too complacent in the face of such a powerful threat?

After the tumultuous presidency of the Democratic Progressive Party’s Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008, the Kuomintang administration of Ma Ying-jeou has striven for détente across the Strait. The opening of direct aviation links and signing of an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) exemplify the increased economic and social ties of the past seven years. China is now Taiwan’s largest trade partner and also sends the biggest contingent of tourists to the island, surely signs of continuing good relations. With American and Philippine forces engaged in war games described as a show of force against China’s increasingly aggressive assertion of maritime claims in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait has drifted into the background as a potential flashpoint of late.

Low defense spending “raises questions about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense,” which could have “implications” for U.S. willingness to respond.

Another significant factor in shaping public attitudes in Taiwan is undoubtedly the seemingly huge scale of the challenge. China reportedly has 1,100 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) and 200-500 land attack cruise missiles (LACM) aimed at Taiwan, along with a small number of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM). The PRC is also deploying armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), which Easton theorizes might be used as decoys to create gaps in Taiwan’s defense network, and has dramatically increased its anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) capabilities, many of which are launched from submarine platforms.China’s missile arsenal provides it with the ability to launch a devastating first-round attack against Taiwan’s airbases, naval ports, and command-and-control centers. SRBMs launched from coastal China, with a 300-kilometer range that includes nearly all of Taiwan, could reach their targets within less than six minutes.

The most likely scenario for an attack on Taiwan involves a lightning missile strike on naval ports and airfields. In view of that threat, Taiwan in recent years has hardened its airbases by burying hangars under mountains or tons of reinforced concrete. Taiwan’s fleet of 480 aircraft – including 64 Mirage-2000 fighters, 160 F-16s, and 123 locally made IDFs – might survive the bombardment, but if runways are unavailable they could not take off, or if already in the air, would have nowhere to land. The multi-layered saturation bombing would likely be followed by further aerial bombardment from fighter jets and bombers, and then ultimately the landing of Chinese troops.

Taiwan has in fact taken major steps to counter these potential threats. The first step is intelligence, including signal intelligence (SIGINT), electronic intelligence (ELINT), radar systems, cyber reconnaissance, and human intelligence networks. In 2012 Taiwan introduced a new ultra-high frequency (UHF) radar into its early warning system. Strategically situated in a mountain in northwest Taiwan, this radar system reportedly is a modified version of the U.S. “Pave Paws” ballistic missile defense radar. Easton observes that it may be “the most powerful ground-based radar system ever built.”

Missile defense systemsTaiwan is also investing heavily in its ballistic-missile defense systems, including SAMs (surface-to-air missiles) and especially Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense systems from the United States. Three of these units have already been deployed in northern Taiwan, and six more will soon be acquired for the central and southern parts of the island. Taiwan also has its own indigenously produced Tien Kung (Skybow) SAM systems. The Legislative Yuan recently appropriated NT$74.8 billion (US$2.5 billion) for upgrading to the third-generation Tien Kung (TK-3), which is considered comparable to the PAC system. Other antimissile weaponry in the Taiwan arsenal include missiles mounted on destroyers and frigates, on helicopters, and on the ground.

To counter the inevitable prospect of at least some SRBM warheads reaching their targeted airfields, Taiwan has further invested heavily in U.S.-developed Rapid Runway Repair kits, and Taiwanese troops have been trained by American contractors on how to use them effectively.The numerous armchair defense analysts pervading the blogosphere and the comment section of any news story on Taiwan’s defense often start from the assumption that Taiwan is not strategically significant to U.S. foreign policy concerns and that China’s military power is insurmountable.

Even genuine military experts stress the cost that the United States would have to bear in coming to Taiwan’s rescue, and many wonder whether the American public would support the effort. In a paper for the U.S. Naval War College entitled “Anti-Access/Area Denial: The Evolution of Modern Warfare,” U.S. Air Force Major Christopher J. McCarthy notes that while China’s defense budget and fighting capabilities trail those of the United States, the defense umbrella it has built up – comprised of surface- and submarine-launched missiles that can reach as far into the Western Pacific as Guam – represents “a level of defensive capability not experienced by any military in the history of warfare, including the U.S.”

U.S. “attempts to deploy into the theater and gain air and maritime superiority (over China) likely will result in loss of life and material to levels not experienced since World War II.”McCarthy concludes that while it is possible to successfully engage China, “attempts to deploy into the theater and gain air and maritime superiority likely will result in loss of life and material to levels not experienced since World War II.” This defensive shield strategy, dubbed “Anti-Access/Area Denial” (A2/D2) by military analysts, was born of China’s observation of the ease with which the United States invaded Iraq during Desert Storm in 1990-91, due to the full control U.S. forces exercised over the air and maritime space. “Military leaders concluded that in the event of a war with the United States, the U.S. military deployment process must be disrupted or neutralized, and have successfully developed and fielded military capabilities designed to fulfill this need,” writes McCarthy. China has been so successful in deploying these strategic resources that “just as Blitzkrieg changed combat in 1940, anti-access/area denial technologies and strategies have re-defined the character of modern warfare,” he argues.

In line with analysts’ observations of the nature of asymmetrical warfare, a democratic power such as the United States would have great difficulty sustaining such losses from a conflict whose strategic value was questionable. Defending democracy in Asia might not be enough motivation to continue such operations.

Pro-Taiwan analysts, however, note that in fact Taiwan remains a core strategic asset for the United States and that abandoning Taiwan to Chinese aggression, rather than serving to appease the rising superpower, would in fact fuel its appetite for further expansionism, destabilizing the region.

“Abandoning Taiwan would likely encourage Chinese expansionism while giving it more tools to do so,” warns defense expert J. Michael Cole in the recent article, “Don’t Let China Swallow Taiwan,” for The National Interest. “The annexation of Taiwan would further contribute to China’s might by adding the world’s 19th largest economy to its national power while providing Beijing with an ‘unsinkable carrier’ facing an open Western Pacific.” Cole, a senior officer of the Thinking Taiwan Foundation led by DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen, views this eventuality as providing “China with a new front from which to confront Japan and the Philippines, not to mention U.S. forces deployed in the region.”

Richard Fisher sees abandoning Taiwan as a significant destabilizing event in East Asia that would have direct implications for the security of the United States. “Destroying Taiwan’s democracy could mark the beginning of the Chinese Communist Party’s decision to counter democracy globally,” he noted in an email, observing that China “is already allying itself with most of the world’s dictatorships.”

Even more significantly, Taiwan’s fall could thrust the region into a new nuclear arms race. “After taking Taiwan, China will then turn it into a nuclear weapons base and a base for global power projection,” he wrote. Consequently, “Japan and South Korea would build their own nuclear weapons, followed by Australia, Vietnam, and perhaps others. China will then redouble its nuclear weapon building, thinking it could win a nuclear exchange, making such conflicts far more possible.”

“Destroying Taiwan’s democracy could mark the beginning of the Chinese Communist Party’s decision to counter democracy globally.”At that point, the United States would have to decide “whether to help its allies to nuclearize or to abandon them,” Fisher continued. It would be faced with the challenge of how to defend American interests “in a period of strategic chaos in Asia which its leadership had prevented since 1945.”

China’s rising power has made a strong impression on the world, but many in the pro-Taiwan camp say that Chinese propaganda has led to a major over-estimation of its war-fighting capacity, and consequently diminished expectations regarding the ROC military.

“Sustained propaganda/political warfare campaigns unleashed by Beijing” toward Taiwan are intended to “undermine morale in the troops, destroy the reputation of the military at home and abroad, and convince the Taiwanese population, as well as Taiwan’s allies, that resistance is futile,” Cole wrote in a special report for Thinking Taiwan, “Taiwanese Military Reform and PLA Political Warfare.”

Easton added in email correspondence that China is actually far less confident than it seeks to appear. “To really know how the PLA sees Taiwan, you have to dig deeper,” he advised. “When you do, you find that the PLA is scared of the ROC military, and they are scared of the U.S. Pacific Command.”

An overestimation of China’s war-fighting capability might explain why commentators tend to expect China to emerge victorious, both in asymmetrical war scenarios in which China is the weaker power, as in a conflict with the United States, or when it is the stronger power, as in a conflict with Taiwan. Certainly a democratic United States would be far more sensitive to losses than authoritarian China, but is China immune from public reaction? How would China’s hyper-connected, increasingly middle-class society react when images of body bags offloaded from Chinese naval vessels start circulating on Weibo and other social media platforms during a conflict with Taiwan, particularly in light of the one-child policy?

Ultimately, the question comes down not to China’s restraint but to its long-term strategic goals. Alexander Huang, a professor of strategic studies at Taipei’s Tamkang University, says that despite appearances, China has not reached authentic superpower status, and its leadership knows it. He points to extreme disparities in regional development as indicative of China’s incomplete economic rise. “China understands that to maintain one-party rule and make sure people ‘enjoy’ a dictatorship, you need to bring continual economic growth,” he observes. “Military conflict will kill foreign direct investment and business opportunities.”

At the same time, Huang says, Beijing wants to show the world that it is no longer a weak power. “China wants to posture its military might, but not test its military might,” he notes.

China’s need for further development buys Taiwan some time, but doesn’t eliminate the threat, Huang concludes. How can Taiwan best use that time to mitigate the future threat from China?

He offers two suggestions and one caution. Taiwan should “make bold moves to increase or upgrade Taiwan’s economy to another level,” he says, and it should “reform the military through a volunteer system to make it into a real fighting force.” In so doing, he warns, “Taiwan needs to walk a very fine line between the U.S. and China – and make sure that when we engage with one party we don’t antagonize the other or make the U.S.-China relationship suffer.”

(CNN)Despite strong opposition from China, the Obama administration authorized a $1.83 billion weapons sale to Taiwan Wednesday, marking the first U.S. arms shipment to the island nation in four years.

Consisting almost exclusively of defensive weapons, the military package includes two U.S. Navy guided Oliver Hazard Perry class missile frigates, amphibious assault vehicles, and anti-aircraft and anti-ship systems, according to David McKeeby, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.

"U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are guided by the Taiwan Relations Act and based on an assessment of Taiwan's defense needs," McKeeby said.

"Our longstanding policy on arms sales to Taiwan has been consistent across six different U.S. administrations," he added. "We believe our consistent policy has contributed to the security of Taiwan, and has also supported the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

Taiwan welcomed the announcement of the sale, calling it "a comprehensive display of America's pledge to provide security to Taiwan," according to a statement.

China objects

China, which views Taiwan as part of its indivisible territory, has consistently opposed U.S.-Taiwan weapons sales and reiterated that stance Wednesday, summoning Deputy Mission Chief Kaye Lee of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, according to a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

The statement from Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang called the deal "a serious violation of international laws ... as well as China's territory and security interest."China and Taiwan leaders hold historic talks

The U.S. said the deal does not indicate a change in U.S. policy toward China that would alter normalized relations between the two countries.

But the timing of the sale comes amidst heightened tensions between the U.S. and China due to recent Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. It also comes just one-month before elections in Taiwan where the ruling pro-Beijing party looks unlikely to win.

Taiwan and China: Friends, foes or frenemies?

One year ago, Congress passed the Naval Transfer Act authorizing the sale of up to four Perry-class frigates to Taiwan in December 2014.

Obama signed the transfer act into law but until Wednesday, the administration had yet to notify Congress of its plans to move forward with the sale.

The following post has been updated to include a statement from Sen. John McCain and links to the individual Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announcements.

The State Department will present Congress a comparatively modest $1.83 billion arms foreign military sales deal to Taiwan today – the first arms package for the island nation in four years, USNI News has learned.

According to sources familiar with the package, it will include the costs of refurbishing two former U.S. Navy Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates, anti-air and armor missiles, defensive ship systems and 36 AAV-7 Amphibious Assault Vehicles (AAV).

While the first in four years, the $1.83 billion deal is modest in scope and firepower compared to the last package of $5.9 billion that included upgrades for Taiwan’s fleet of Lockheed Martin F-16 Falcon fighters and a 2010 package of $6 billion.

Notably absent from the deal is any mention of assisting Taiwan’s new diesel-electric submarine program (SSK) to replace its two Dutch-built, 1980s vintage 2,600-ton Hai-lang-class SSKs and two World War II era U.S. Guppy-class boats used for training or any movement toward fulfilling Taiwan’s lingering next-generation fighter requirement.

“The weapons that are included in here are almost exclusively for defense purposes,” Eric Wertheim, naval analyst and author of the U.S. Naval Institute’s Combat Fleets of the World told USNI News on Wednesday.“It’s clear that the administration doesn’t want to upset mainland China by providing anything that can be seen as upsetting the balance of power in the region or appearing to be offensive.”

The deal also includes a cost-free lease of a bilateral communications network between Taiwan and U.S. Pacific Command.

The lack of Washington arms deals with Taipei in recent years – one of the few countries willing to sell weapons against mainland China’s wishes – has been a subject of bilateral criticism for some in Congress.

Earlier this year the Taiwan Ministry of Defense announced it would embark on its own submarine program after the U.S. failed to make good on a submarine program agreed to under the George W. Bush administration.

Late last month, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) wrote to the White House to express concern the U.S. wasn’t doing more to aid Taiwan against the backdrop of a rapid Chinese military expansion.

“While recent relations between Taiwan and China have been more encouraging, we remain concerned that China’s ongoing military modernization, and the threat it poses to peace and security in the Taiwan Strait, is not being adequately addressed,” read the letter.“We are increasingly concerned that, absent a change in defense spending. Taiwan’s military will continue to be under-resourced and unable to make the investments necessary to maintain a credible deterrent across the strait, especially as its limited defense resources are increasingly constrained by growing military personnel costs.”

Following the official release of parts for the deal, McCain’s office issued a statement on the deal and called for a more regular arms sales process to Taiwan and Taipei to commit to devoting three percent of their gross domestic product to defense spending.

“I strongly support the Administration’s notification of a new round of arms sales to Taiwan. This decision is consistent with both the legal requirements of the Taiwan Relations Act and our national interest in helping the democratic government in Taipei preserve stability across the Taiwan Strait, read the statement.“Going forward, the United States must establish a more regularized process for considering requests for arms sales to Taiwan in order to avoid extended periods in which a fear of upsetting the U.S.-China relationship may harm Taiwan’s defense capabilities. For its part, Taiwan will also need to work to meet its commitment to spend at least 3 percent of its annual gross domestic product on defense.”

For its part, the reception from Beijing will almost certainly be poor. China views Taiwan as a breakaway territory and has spent decades exerting economic and political pressure to prevent other countries from selling arms to Taiwan.

Their view could be summed up from a statement late last year on the proposed deal between U.S. and Italian defense firms to create a domestic minesweepers for Taiwan.

“China firmly opposes foreign arms sale to Taiwan and any form of military technology exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and foreign countries. This position is clear-cut and consistent,” the statement read.“We ask relevant countries to respect China’s core interests, adhere to the one-China principle, neither sell arms to Taiwan in any form nor assist Taiwan in developing its military equipment, and take concrete actions to support the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and peaceful reunification of China.”