Harold Camping retires in confusion over his faulty Rapture forecasts (Poor Harold; he should try econometrics).

The Rugby World Cup boosted host country New Zealand's GDP (It must have been the additional beer consumption).

Brazilian shoppers boost U.S. holiday spending because things are cheap here (They have inflation and higher taxes—Bernanke and Obama, take note).

These data are just too confusing for me.

I've said enough about the economy this year and I'm fairly content with my calls. I don't do those predictions for the new year any more. I did a 2010 forecast, and 12 out of the 15 forecasts were correct (not nos. 12, 13,and 14). My Megatrends article in 2009 is also pretty good, but I think I would like to re-write it to change some things in hindsight.

But here is what really interests me about 2011: Looking back in time since the Crash of '08, I am impressed by how closely our depression has hewn to classic depression models, especially the Great Depression of the 30s and 40s where there was so much government meddling in the economy. (I urge anyone to read Murray Rothbard's America's Great Depression for the best analysis.) For example, we continue to experience the following indicia of a depression:

The classic credit crunch/liquidity freeze. It was "solved" but only for Wall Street and the big corporations. Not much has trickled down to the masses. The Fed opened the money sluices in 2009 and stood as a lender of last resort to the commercial paper market and opened up the discount window to all comers (not only the Primary Dealers, but also the money market funds and others). But the LRBs (local and regional banks) are something else. Their loan books are still lean (they are looking to new, riskier investments to pump up earnings). What is interesting is not that there is a lack of money for lenders to lend, but loan demand is weak. If you read the reports from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small businesses (<500 employees) aren't borrowing. They aren't willing to take on debt because of uncertainty about the future of the economy and the future of government policies.

High level of unemployment. This has been persistent and is not yielding to classic Keynesian fiscal stimulus nostrums—not that they have ever worked. The reasons for this are complex, but it has mostly to do with capital destruction. And that has to do with the concept of deleveraging/liquidation of malinvested projects. I believe we still have a long way to go before we can say that there will be enough real capital formed to restart the economy and create jobs. Real capital is not something that can be printed; it must be earned and saved. Let me put it another way: if there were sufficient real capital, we would be in recovery and unemployment would be much lower.

Declining prices. We have been having "inflation" in the Austrian economic theory sense (money supply expansion), but official price inflation measures have been modest and are now declining. If you look at the charts on True (Austrian) Money Supply, we have seen money supply expansion for most of this year and it has resulted in what most economists interpret as economic growth. What they are seeing for the most part is money steroids-induced growth. When the money goes away, the activity goes away.

Deleveraging/Liquidation of Malinvestment. We see persistent declining prices in major asset classes (real estate) because of the continuing deleveraging/liquidation of malinvestments. This is most obvious in the housing markets where prices continue to decline. There is also another factor and that is the oncoming worldwide economic recession has reduced demand for commodities and those prices are declining (See the PPI). To complicate matters, the current economic good news is a head fake, mostly an artifact of an increasing money supply. The effect of monetary stimulation is wearing off and economic activity is starting to decline (almost all measures of manufacturing and industrial activity in the U.S. are declining, but that is another article, soon).

Contracting money supply (deflation). Money supply may be contracting again. I believe this will result in further economic stagnation, a decline in the stock markets, an acceleration of declining prices and wages, and more quantitative easing. I am not suggesting that QE creates positive economic effects, but after the current money supply expansion wears off (the above noted head fake), a decline in money supply will indicate reduced economic activity. The government and the Fed, as well as the central banks of the major economies, will fight this with every tool they have.

Failed fiscal stimulus. We don't need to say much anymore about this as we see our president on the stump in a rather desperate attempt to pump us up in the hope that talking about the subject will create jobs. Conventional wisdom still beats this drum in favor of more spending and more debt. But that won't fly with the Republicans, at least before the election.

A resurgence of gold as an investment asset. Massive government debt and Fed money supply expansion has created an unstable future, a weak dollar, and a demand for gold and silver. We have seen major banks and hedge funds jump on the gold train, something that they never have considered before. As DoctoRx has writtenmanytimes, gold and silver have been overhyped, but still remains an important investment in view of long-term economic risks. As readers know, he suggests waiting on the sidelines for a while longer. Much of gold's price depends on the status of the dollar, U.S. economic performance, U.S. debt levels, Fed policies, general commodities prices, and instability in the rest of the world. Unlike FDR, citizens have the right to own gold and protect themselves against long-term degradation of their assets.

In other words, no matter how much the Fed and the Administration try to flog the economy, nothing has really worked. As much as Bernanke boasted about being able to prevent another depression, he and the Bush-Obama Administrations have done everything they could to make things worse. And the classic indicators of a depression are still playing out and reminding us of the inefficacy and incompetence of conventional economic wisdom.

What will 2012 bring? I don't exactly know, but I think it will be continued economic stagnation and perhaps even negative GDP, continued high unemployment, and more quantitative easing. (I will discuss this soon.) What will really be important in 2012 is the Presidential and Congressional elections. If the Republicans take hold of the presidency and Congress, then in 2013 we can hope Obamacare will be repealed, spending will be seriously cut, and some of the more egregious new regulations will be eliminated. I don't have a lot of faith in the Republicans to achieve real reform, but I think they will know why they were voted in and that they will have only 3 years to attack some of our fundamental problems (spending, debt, entitlements). If Obamacare manages to take hold, then I don't have much hope for America's long-term prospects.

Doesn't matter who gets in. You're being disingenuous if you believe either party will address anything, especially the Republicans. Obviously, you haven't got it yet - Both parties depend on and desire 'big' government. Without it, Wall Street. the politicians, bankers and well-entrenched 'contractors' (think Lockeed, GenDy, Halli, Kellogg, Brown and Scoop etc. Yeah, talk about Welfare) wouldn't be able to maintain that extremely destructive and exploitative 'lifestyle'. Expect a bigger war - It's the quickest way for them to GET MORE without having to take the time to enact legislation.

2012 saw the death of fiat money, that is, the death of fiat currencies, with the rise of the US Dollar from 73.50 beginning in September 2011. Currencies will continue sinking and global financial derisking and deleveraging will be ongoing taking even the US stocks that rallied in the fourth quarter lower. A new dynamo of economic and political action is at work. Political capital is replacing investment capital. Diktat not choice will rule economics and politics. Soon out of sovereign armageddon, that is a credit bust and financial system breakdown, European leaders will meet in summits to announce regional framework agreements, cede sovereignty to a Federal Europe, establish a fiscal union, provide a committee for fiscal sovereignty, announce austerity measures, institute structural reforms, and impose debt servitude, and provide stakeholder committees from government and industry to provide credit as well as to manage the factors of production via public private partnerships in order to provide for regional security and stability.

Well, for one, ObamaCare is unconstitutional...by virtue of its mandated by law buy-in provision, that you must purchase health insurance from a private corporation or you have to pay the government a fine.

If it is not...then the precedent has been set, that the state can force you (the individual) to buy anything it desires in the future...from cars, to houses, to shampoo (any product or service).

Only from the minds of fascist "progressives" can such things spring.

And there is no severability clause...we cherish ex post facto law more than anything or we should. That gets to be a very slippery slope indeed. Concieve of a time when a charge is brought against an individual and he is proven innocent, only to be brought up on new charges under a new law ...passed after his trial.

You would think a "constitutional law professor" would understand all this very well. Maybe he got tired of reading after page 1296 ;-)

We're just being duped. Mostly all of the 1st/New World govts. know they can only 'kick the can' vis-a-vis debt & in doing that gradually erode the sovereign debts by debasing our money, so that it withers in buying terms, to fit the real GDP - that, in my humble view is all they can possibly do. I see my fait withering with every utility bill paid, every grocery visit, every fuel stop. This matters not a jot to money & market manipulators when they can easily increase even that withered fiat to make good many times over their real wealth. I don't mind getting poorer in one sense, since the simple facts of human population & a depleting planet can't easily be gain said; but I do mind the mendacity & hyprocrisy of our leaders & the robber baron financiati - and their apologists & fifth columnists.

My strategy is simple: take my money out of the game as much as possible by buying real gold & silver & have no debts or liens on my 'estate'. For the average working Jo fancy strategies with any counter-party risk element must be a non-starter.

Whatever value there may be in "Econophile's" analysis is in his citing of his betters: Rothbard and the other Austrians.

But simply repeating "Austrian" nostrums gets a bit lame, IMHO. Assuming for the moment that the Austrians have much to contribute to better understanding of our situation, a more reponsible analyst would go to some pains to actually spell out how current conditions exhibit the truth of Austrian doctrine, in such a way that it could be "falsified". Otherwise it is like dogmatic theology or Marxism or any other ideology that can be memorized without being truly internalized as enhanced perception. Such perception must be demonstrated in the thick of the fight. Don't see much of that in "Econophile".

The American "Austrians" in general are weak on politics and tribal realities, They basically repeat Enlightenment boilerplate with no critical analysis of the weaknesses or provenance of this attempted deracination. Daily Bell in Switzerland and Hans-Herman Hoppe are better, in this regard, for those interested in Austrian/libertarian thinking as an ongoing project.

I think we have a phenomena developing that is growing. When the MSM tries to attack Ron Paul, it backfires. Their strategy of not mentioning him in Iowa discussions, totally backfired, when Jon Stewart blew the lid off. The MSM is attacking RP now as a racist, that will backfire on them also, as many people (like the black man from Tx who was helped by him at the hospital) will come forward. At this point the MSM is on path to be RP's biggest supporter. They lie and lie, but people are waking up. When they attack him, with lies, simple truth neutralizes their attack and makes RP stronger and more popular in the public eye.

And almost even more important, is what happens to people's trust in the MSM when this happens. Suppose a person pretty much trusted the MSM. They hear the MSM call RP a racist. Then they watch that James Williams video. What happens to their trust in the MSM? And then, as the MSM continues to attack RP, it only brings about more awakening in the public. "You can fool some of the people all the time. . . . etc. etc." but there comes a time when most of the people figure it out. The MSM is too arrogant and stupid to realize that we are at that point, now.

The snowball is starting to roll down the hill, and will be unstopable.

"Obamacare" as if this is not the creation of a Rep Dem conspiracy that has been going on decades, a hand out this time to the health insurance/pharma industry, following the defense industry, bankiers, etc.

Word Obamacare suggests that there is a political argument here, like, well, those Republicans wouldn't let that happen.

There is no Obama, just puppet masters who pull the strings.

As for your "analysis" of government inflation number, give me a break.

Do you pay an electic bill, health insurance or drive a care?

Garbage in/ Garbage out, think you should sell this shallow analysis elsewhere, with all due respect.

High level of unemployment. This has been persistent and is not yielding to classic Keynesian fiscal stimulus nostrums—not that they have ever worked. The reasons for this are complex, but it has mostly to do with capital destruction.

Actually, the overall unemployment issue can be summarized in much less "idealistic" terms:

- How high is the pressure to get a job - ANY JOB. That includes pressure from the gov, as well as how biased the power-balance is, between employers and employees (though, both kinda work hand in hand).

- How much the "domestic market" has been destroyed

- How much multinationaly exporters have been state (actually population) sponsored (problem: In the current global system, you either get a healthy domestic market XOR happy multinational exporters. The reason for this quite simply is, that multinational exporters go where they can rip-off the domestic market, gov finances and population the most).

- Fancy tricks that manipulate statistics.

- Absence of any actual solution to the "unemployment anomaly".... that is, the population DEPENDING on a "free market job" (which ironically, goes against free-market-principles, simply because a free market assumes, that there is no such thing as existencial dependency, elsewhere also known as "extortion by pointing a gun at your head").

However, unemployment stats, from a macroscopic POV, really are a distraction... the much more important question is: What is the average purchasing power (NOT valued in fiat!!!) of non-upperclass citizens, and how much of it is driven purely by state-sponsoring (read: negativ budget balance program.)

Declining prices. We have been having "inflation" in the Austrian economic theory sense (money supply expansion), but official price inflation measures have been modest and are now declining.

And you belive this bullshit, when going shopping at your local supermarket? SHAME ON YOU, RETARD.

Deleveraging/Liquidation of Malinvestment. We see persistent declining prices in major asset classes (real estate) because of the continuing deleveraging/liquidation of malinvestments. This is most obvious in the housing markets where prices continue to decline. There is also another factor and that is the oncoming worldwide economic recession has reduced demand for commodities and those prices are declining (See the PPI). To complicate matters, the current economic good news is a head fake, mostly an artifact of an increasing money supply.

It isn't that difficult to get. Lots of bankster and gov balance sheet invested in bullshit, that isn't even worth 50 cents on the dollar, yet has been leveraged up the bazoo. Or in short, MASSIVE amounts of fake capital.

Contracting money supply (deflation).

AHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHA IN WHAT DISNEYLAND ARE YOU LIVING EXACTLY??? Contracting money supply? WHERE? THEY'RE PRINTING LIKE MORONS, WHILE OTHER MORONS STILL ASK IF THERE WILL BE QE3.

A resurgence of gold as an investment asset. Massive government debt and Fed money supply expansion has created an unstable future, a weak dollar, and a demand for gold and silver. We have seen major banks and hedge funds jump on the gold train, something that they never have considered before. As DoctoRx has writtenmanytimes, gold and silver have been overhyped, but still remains an important investment in view of long-term economic risks. As readers know, he suggests waiting on the sidelines for a while longer.

Uh, no. You're talking about GLD and SLV, not about GOLD and SILVER. The situation regarding gold and silver can actually be summarized in much more primitive, desillusioned and simplistic ways:

- For now, paper PM prices are anchored to physical PM prices, even though the paper market of those assets, has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the physical market, with the former better being understood as the fed balance sheet, combined with fraud (re-hyphothecation), plus (important!) the aspect that so far - besides of blowups like MFG - requested delivery so far still is either satisfied, or being paid a large premium. Or in other words: The only reason the physical market hasn't totally seperated from the paper market, is that so far people only react to lack of delivery, and not many request delivery. Or more simply: Inventories aren't at zero yet. THAT is the only two things that drive the PM spot market: invented paper versus actual delivery.... REAL supply and demand, is judged as totally irrelevant, unless there is NO DELIVERY.

Or even shorter: The PM market works, until inventories go to zero. It is binary. Absence zero inventories, prices are whatever the issuers mood is at the current day. Which is to say: Spot prices have no fundamentals, and no technicals, absent non-empty inventories.

In other words, no matter how much the Fed and the Administration try to flog the economy, nothing has really worked. As much as Bernanke boasted about being able to prevent another depression, he and the Bush-Obama Administrations have done everything they could to make things worse.

If they actually wanted to "make things better", then yes, they failed completely.

What will 2012 bring? I don't exactly know, but I think it will be continued economic stagnation and perhaps even negative GDP

The GDP as you understand it, is already negative. Has been since years. The only reason the numbers aren't negative, is because of printing and manipulation. Actually, the real stats regarding wealth, are so bad, that no one who has any stake in this, dares to publish them - because they're double digit negative for years.

If the Republicans take hold of the presidency and Congress, then in 2013 we can hope Obamacare will be repealed, spending will be seriously cut, and some of the more egregious new regulations will be eliminated. I don't have a lot of faith in the Republicans to achieve real reform, but I think they will know why they were voted in and that they will have only 3 years to attack some of our fundamental problems

What? The republicans don't give a shit. And no, RP isn't really a republican in the way of what nowadays is called a republican.

My comment to the title - there is NO making sense of 2011 - except for further prepping, it was a waste of time, a lost year. Hope 2012 isn't the same; can't afford too many more "Japanese lost" years.

Did you know that the phrase "the depression" never came into common use until 1935. Everyone just believed the hype that prosperity was right around the corner, every year, for seven years. Sound familiar?

2012 will have a "Black Swan Event" that will catch all off guard. Be prepared.

Thanks for a great year Tyler and all ZH friends. Special thanks to the ZH reader who mentioned comparesilverprices.com and comparegoldprices.com. Both saved me some good money this year. 2012 will be Big Fun!

i hope you're wrong that it will catch us off guard - ZH has been a great place, informing us re prepping in the PM's arena and turning us onto others like Celente, Faber, Rogers (to name just a few); which has lead to so many other arenas/thoughts.

So keep reading/investigating and hopefully we'll all be better prepped - on YouTube I found Patriot Nurse and there's some great insights there, especially re antibiotics that could be good as gold if the SHTF or TEOTWAWKI.

Don't know if I'll have time to learn it, but I sure hope someone does - making beer - otherwise we're really fucked.

... unless, if by "seriously cut" he meant "symbolically cut in meaningless areas while continuing the wholesale transfer the people's money into their own pockets and those of their masters;" in which case, I agree with him.

We, as a people have sat on our asses and allowed the Patriot Act to be reaproved, SOPA gain traction and our "new and improved "Defense Act" which can enslave us all be placed in position for passage. It brought to mind a quatrain of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam translated by Fitzgerald:

The moving finger writes,; and, having writ,

Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit

Shall lure it back to cancel half a line,

Nor all your tears wash out a line of it.

Once law, only bullets will cancel out "half a line of it". Milestones

Ha, so true. But, it is as if the world has indeed been turned upside down and sideways and nothing makes real sense viewed through other than a heavily myopic set of lenses. And so we enter 2012 with a cautious and guarded manner waiting for whatever we feel is the inevitable. Whatever that may be...

Making sense of confusion is the human condition. Mixed signals are the new normal. We need a different standard of measurement than the world has devised. Obviously, the world standard is devised to defraud and rob. You don't want to catch the train to the next MF Global. The currency is not money. Gold and silver are money. Paper is not money. The disconnect is the seed of lawlessness that has sprouted and infested the world. The standard by which the world is really measured is older than any nation or central bank. We have been weighed in the balance, and found wanting.

as for the republicans, they are controlled by same plutocrats who control the democrats....there is not a whit's difference between the two except for those who prefer pepsi vs those who prefer coke....

and if the great shredder mitt romney is president, amerika will be beyond doomed - same case with the indonesian citizen barry soetoro....