—Stat add: Frank Gore’s numbers are either a large symptom or cause (you decide) of the 49ers’ declining run game. In the 9 games started by Alex Smith, Gore averaged 5.4 yards a carry (140 carries, 753 yards). In the 7 Colin Kaepernick starts, Gore avearged 3.9 yards a carry (118 carries, 461 yards).

—-And the lesser totals aren’t due to the 49ers peeling back on Gore’s use. In fact, he averaged more carries (16.8) in Kaepernick games than he did Smith games (15.5). I don’t think there’s any question that Gore is most comfortable in power sets and has had trouble as the 49ers use more and more shotgun and Pistol formations–which are much more suited to a darting back like LaMichael James.
—-Whether you use the numbers or the analysis of running styles, there’s no doubt the 49ers have gotten away from the two tight-end power run style once they switched to Kaepernick; it’s not wrong, it’s not that they’re running less, it’s just the way it has gone, and that means a less consistent running game. Or it has so far.

–Back to the start of the column...

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It can’t come down to Colin Kaepernick vs. Aaron Rodgers on Saturday, not if the 49ers want to set the pace of this playoff game.

It would be highly entertaining to see, but it almost certainly wouldn’t work for the 49ers.

This game can’t have the echoes of an old-school 49ers-Green Bay quarterback opera, can’t repeat Steve Young vs. Brett Favre, can’t ignore who the 49ers are and what they still do best.

For one more week at least, the 49ers have to be bullies again.

If this divisional-round game is about Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Donte Whitner, the 49ers win.

And if it’s about Rodgers going throw-for-throw with Kaepernick, the 49ers probably will be in some trouble that they might not be able to escape.

There wasn’t a lot to take out of the Packers’ near-scrimmage against wounded Minnesota in the first round on Saturday, but one thing: Rodgers is throwing well, and when Rodgers is throwing well, watch out.

If the 49ers—or any team—lets Rodgers get into a rhythm throwing to his endless set of playmakers, the Packers are almost impossible to stop.

Of course, I’m not saying the 49ers have zero chance if they get behind early and this turns into an aerial circus.

If Justin Smith is as limited as expected, that all very well might happen, and the 49ers could switch on the offensive turbo-boosters.

Just a year ago, they beat the pass-crazed New Orleans Saints in this same round with an explosion of big pass-plays in the late-going.

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But that was with Alex Smith at QB, not Kaepernick, and that game was far more perilous than the 49ers wanted it to be.

Maybe in a year—maybe in another week–the 49ers will comfortably go into any big game ready and more than able to depend on Kaepernick for 300 yards, 40 throws, and zero huge errors.

I think that was the point of making the QB switch in the first place—Smith was Jim Harbaugh’s QB for cautious times; Kaepernick is the guy Harbaugh believes can eventually win tough playoff games on his own.

It just probably shouldn’t and can’t be this game, not when Green Bay features Rodgers and a defense that can be tricky for young QBs.

The 49ers played it perfectly in their 30-22 Week 1 victory at Lambeau Field this year. They ran it 32 times for 186 yards, kept Rodgers out of sync, and they dared Green Bay to run it and Green Bay still couldn’t run it.

When the 49ers needed the big play, it was Bowman slicing in front of a Rodgers pass in the fourth quarter to seal the game.

Familiar refrain: That also was with Smith playing one of his finest games (125.6 passer rating), balancing the power run style with an efficient pass attack.

But the 49ers have committed to Kaepernick now, for good reasons, and they are a different offense.

The 49ers are more dynamic under Kaepernick than they were with Smith, but they’re also more erratic.

They consistently threaten the deep spots of a defense, but they also are having a tougher time running it consistently.

The stats are pretty easy to see:

* The 49ers gained 46.5 percent of their total yards on the ground in the nine games that Smith started.

In the seven Kaepernick games, they’ve gained only 38.4 percent of their yards on the ground.

* The 49ers had more rushing yards than passing yards in four of nine Smith games and averaged 170.2 yards on the ground.

They had more passing yards than rushing yards in each of Kaepernick’s seven games, and averaged 137 yards on the ground.

By making that move, and using a lot more shot-gun formations, the 49ers have put more responsibility on a younger QB, and we have certainly seen signs that the young QB is capable of doing some great things.

It also makes the 49ers a less physical team than they used to be, however.

That new finesse style might be better for the 49ers in the long-term, or even for next week, if they have to go to Atlanta or host the Seahawks.

If Kaepernick is the QB Harbaugh believes can win a Super Bowl, then eventually he will have to let him loose in an all-important moment.

But that’s not this week, at least that shouldn’t be the plan.

For this week at least, the 49ers have to turn back and go old-school 2011 smash-mouth in this game.

The 49ers can save the QB heroics for later, because if there’s going to be a QB to win this for his team single-handedly at Candlestick on Saturday, it likely won’t be their guy.

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They need to establish the run and maintain ball control like this team always did with Alex running the show. If Kaepernick does the 2-minute drill all game like he has, the defense will run out of gas by the 3rd quarter and the game will get ugly. If Kaepernick is unable to do anything but throw long passes or incompletes, then just call more runs.

Earl Monroe

well put

fesnyc

Here’s what i care about: the Niners winning the game, and remaining as healthy as possible.

I dont give a damn how many rushing or passing yards we get, or they get, as long as we win.

Hmmmm

This team has always been equipped to win against overhyped one-dimensional passing teams with mediocre defenses (Saints, Lions, Packers). Dating back to last season, they haven’t lost a single one yet. (The Giants don’t count, they have a decent running game and an above-average defense.) The problem is those games were won under Alex Smith where the team played much more conservatively and ran the ball way more, keeping the ball out of the opponent’s hands.

If the Niners don’t win next week, it’s most likely going to be the fault of the offense not sustaining drives long enough, regardless of how much they score. They way the defense plays will be directly tied to how long the offense is on the field. If Roman neglects the run like he has the second half of the regular season and the game is lost, I hope another team takes him off our hands.

Johnny89

I don’t agree. Most people said the same thing going into last years game against the Saints and their high scoring offense. And we got into a shootout and won. And that was with Alex Smith at the helm. I’d be more worried about this game if Smith was still the starter. Kap has the arm and running ability to pull the team through if it comes to a shootout.

Rayoflight

Alex was 29th in 3rd down conversion last year. He was about 8% worse than Kaep this year. And those were the first 7 starts of his career. Guys like Staley, Gore and co. Need to get off their rumps and play HARD

Djorki Boobaluv

Kawakami
You didn’t write much about how you see the game itself unfolding. Thus, your article lacks bite. Why? Is it because the Niners D can’t play up-tempo? Is it because the offense can’t against a weak opposing D?

Hamsterball

Alex Smith must be hating it now. This would have been his redemption game. Him vs Aaron Rodgers, the guy the Niners passed on draft day for him. Kap is good, but I don’t think he has proven himself as that much better than Alex.

Get Vernon Davis involved. Niners cannot be so conservative. Their defense is not as good as it was last year. Games at Seattle and New England prove this. They cannot sit on a lead and hope the defense shuts down Aaron Rodgers. They could not do it to Brady or Russel Wilson, Rodgers is just as good if not better than those two.

TIM

“The 49ers are more dynamic under Kaepernick than they were with Smith, but they’re also more erratic.”
———————————————————-
They were plenty erratic when Alex was playing and not very dynamic at all. Now they are actually less erratic and much more dynamic !
If they lose to GB with Kap at QB then they probably would have lost by more with alex playing. If they win with Kap playing then they will probably win by more than if alex was playing. Why? Because Kap is a better player than alex and when Kap is in the game all the players around him are made better by his presence.

TIM

…And don’t forget that in that Saint’s game last year we won the game because the D and ST’s gave the offense 5,count em 5 turnovers. Our offense didn’t do much at all until late in the 4th quarter. If we get 5 turnovers in any playoff game this year we will blow out the other team with Kap in there.imho

That Man

I see the Niners trying to come out like they did against the Pats a few weeks ago. Big throws, fast defense. Hearing the o-line talking about their sausage fingers, and how important the week off was gives me hope they will be ready to maul overrated Raji and co. TK is right, if the game is about Gore and the o-line, Niners win, but don’t underestimate Kaep and Harbaugh with two weeks to prepare. Kaep for prez!
Go Niners

FeatherRiverDan

the 9ers should have drafted Rogers over Smith and we wouldn’t be having this conversation now…
With all the wide outs out I don’t look for the the 49ers to win….First round choice can’t catch the ball, whats up with that?

ASM

Tim, good point. The D also has to be a lot more focused on getting turnovers especially with the Packers RBs bring green. I hope they prep trying to strip the ball a lot this week. Their RBs would be nervous on the road and it affords a great opportunity for us.

JgD

We just saw the Vikings, with the best running game in football, lose to GB because an untested, shaky QB could not move the team or play ball (keep away from Rogers) control football. Exactly what the 49ers will present.
Smith beat NO last year with exciting, fun football. He’d have bested the Giants but for the fumbles of another untested player dropping the ball – twice – at key moments. Coach H was a fool to make the switch from a QB that was ready for a Superbowl contest to a scattered, untested kid, who hasn’t won anything yet, and might never.
Too much early success caused the coach to lose the way. Too bad. This was the year for this team.

Hmmmm

Johnny89 says:
January 6th, 2013 at 6:15 pm
I don’t agree. Most people said the same thing going into last years game against the Saints and their high scoring offense. And we got into a shootout and won. And that was with Alex Smith at the helm. I’d be more worried about this game if Smith was still the starter. Kap has the arm and running ability to pull the team through if it comes to a shootout.

—————————————

Yeah, and how dangerously close was that game? If the Saints weren’t stubbornly blitzing on the final TD drive under Gregg Williams’ orders, would the outcome be the same?

Now look at the recent Packers and Lions games. They were very commanding, obvious wins. Both had smashmouth football: hardnosed running, ball control, a defense that was full of energy because the offense could stay on the field. I think those kinds of wins are much safer. Leave the shootouts for the one-dimensional teams. This team on paper is not one-dimensional. It’s only one-dimensional if the offensive coordinator is being an idiot.

Big Suede

TK how is Kaep more “erratic” than Alex Smith. Smith had HORRIBLE games with the Vikings and giants. Kap has never had the 3 interception games that Smith has had. Alex Smiths worst games this season look much worse. Objectively Alex Smith is the more “erratic” qb- That isn’t my opinion, that is just what the numbers say. This is even more impressive when you consider that kap faced teams with winning records and smith played against worse teams while having ALL of his receivers

I am tired of reading writers trying to to paint Kap as the more risky option. The numbers show the opposite. The problem is that the offensive line hasn’t created the same gaps we were seeing in the beginning of the season and Gore looked more strong.

The big question is- will the offensive line show up and exert their will? Will gore run hard for 20+ carries? If they do and the defense plays like normal- this team is Super Bowl bound

Otis

Big Suede,

Tired though you are, Kap is the more risky option, by a mile. I’m with JgD, this was the Niners year. Smith was our guy and this game was ours.
Now, all bets are off.

Big Suede

Otis- you have no facts to back you up on Kap being riskier. I don’t know if Kaepernick is capable of throwing 3 interceptions in a game. He has never done it. Alex Smith has…. multiple times.

http://Yahoo! PeteyBrian

Tim,
Pulling out all those statistics – and ignoring strength of schedule – to compare Alex and Kaep or the running game’s effectiveness under their helm – is really meaningless.

Making any qb switch mid-season is risky but I like how Kaep is playing – tough wins versus Chicago, New Orleans, and New England – really impressed me.

Alex’s win over Green Bay – was nice too.

RE: Alex Smith – winning a playoff game and going 13-3 (cupcake schedule with #1 defense/kicking game/great running game last season) doesn’t make him an all-pro quarterback…

Common Sense

Seahawks vs either Packers or Niners would be a great matchup. Hawks seem to be the hot team. Niners really going to have to bring A game all around. Fear kicking game will be this team’s “achilles heel” (pun intended).

Nobody

Funny how people always turn every subject into an Alex vs Colin comparison. This game has nothing to do with that.

This is 49ers vs Packers. You just don’t win by matching your weakness with your opponent’s strength. At the QB position, Aaron Rodgers is better than either Alex or Colin so we just simply do not want to get into a contest there.

If the D plays like the last 3 games and the running game is not much of a threat, then 49ers will lose even with Eli Manning or Drew Brees behind center. It’s a TEAM sport. The Giants or Saints can tell you that.

was somebody

Reasonable thoughts

But don’t overlook the fact that the loss of Hunter has a big effect on the slipping run stats – And Manningham’s loss is huge too.

come on lmj, take some more slack after creative play calls
- and if Jenkins could catch 3 balls – that would help…..
GO NINERS!

Gore faced tougher run defenses in the games that Kaep started, it isn’t more complicated than that.

CitizenE

I can see Harbaugh and Smith’s career previous to 2011 have spread the koolaide. Kaepernick has obvious problems, not the least of which his inexperience at the line of scrimmage where he cannot get plays off in a timely fashion, nor read defenses off and audible into better plays, perhaps Smith’s greatest virtue. He is only consistent with one receiver, and his presence has by and large quashed the 9ers two biggest playmakers, Davis and Gore.

While I think the Pistol and option is long term fool’s gold, another offensive gimmick that pro defenses will quickly figure out, and anyone watching RG3 in his previous two games will note the fruits, long term of the latter, on these young qbs, even if Kaepernick learns how to throw a catchable ball to short and midrange receivers (and one must also note that some of his longer passes are similarly difficult for recievers to catch) other than Crabtree, and he becomes the qb that Harbaugh and so many SF fans, not to mention those fans in general captured by the new qb style of running quarterbacks out of college formations, right now he is going to be in over his head.

The 9ers have won every game he has played by defensive play, including the spectactular first half against the Pats, in which their O left about 17 points on the field, and to beat Green Bay, they will have to recover completely from their malaise since the 2nd half of that game, punish the Pack receivers and get turn overs. They will not beat them with their offense configured as it is currently.

Adam

Lets not forget the Akers was nails during Alex’s time under center, and that flaws some of the stats. I believe the kicking troubles will cause Roman to call the game a little different ( it better) than they have in the past. What a lot of people are not talking about is Kap’s quick strike capabilities if we can jump out to a lead it really forces them to become one dimensional and that plays right into to our hands. No Akers and no Rodgers to determine this one.

Doc

“This team has always been equipped to win against overhyped one-dimensional passing teams with mediocre defenses (Saints, Lions, Packers). Dating back to last season, they haven’t lost a single one yet. (The Giants don’t count, they have a decent running game and an above-average defense.) ”

You do know that the Giants defense was ranked 28th in the league that year right? They were horrible on defense, but were able to “turn on the switch” as people like to say, when needed. But understand your point.

FeatherRiverDan

everyone is talking QB’s but the story should be wide outs…..the SF wideouts are all hurt…. GB by at lease 10

jimmer

Bottom Line: even Tim admits in this column that promoting Kaep was the right decision by Harbaugh.

That’s what anyone with even the slightest football intelligenc already knows and admits to, including NFL analysts and writers across the league (i.e. people qualified — not Ann Killion you know?)

jimmer

CitizenE,

Did you like, um, watch the Redskins/Seahawks game yesterday?

Only an idiot would say the the Pistol/Read Option is fools gold.

Only an idiot. THat would be you.

Ron

With a depleted receiving corps do they have the choice of not using the power game? The Packers got a gimme with Webb at QB (he was pretty bad passing the ball). Kap will keep the more honest in the passing game. Especially if he has the freedom to audible when the Pack puts 8 in the box.

K Squared

Tim you seem to be forcing causality in and over thinking why Gore’s numbers have dropped. Gore has worn down as the season has gone on for the past few years.

So in 5 seasons the only season he did not have a drop off was the season where he missed the final 5.5 games with a broken hip.

AJ

I hardly ever agree with Kawakami but he is right on this one. In order for the team to win Gore has to rush from power formations not the pistol. If Harbaugh is dead set on rolling like that then he needs to just bench Gore or just stick with Alex Smith the rest of this season then after the Super Bowl win come back next season with Kaep and Hunter/James as the running backs.

But don’t lose your mind now when the Lombardi is so close to returning to Candlestick.

Dutch

There’s something about Kaepernick that is so far out of whack with the rest of the QBs left in the playoffs and it’s interesting.

In the NFC, there’s the new golden child, Russell Wilson and his Levis mini-doc. Then there’s Aaron Rodgers, MVP, Super Bowl hero. Then there’s Matty ice, flying the high powered Falcon attack.

In the AFC, of course you’ve got Manning and Brady, super iconic, all American types. And there’s Flacco and Schaub, with their Pennsylvania QB pedigrees.

Then there’s Kapernick, who looks like a cross between and alien and something out of the old testament with all those biblical tats. And even though CK was raised by good parents and yet, he’s got the edgiest, urban vibe out of any of the remaining QBs.

This should be very interesting.

Tom

All of you have been saying that the statistics don’t come to bear on the impact of the switch from Smith to Kaepernick clearly didn’t read the article. They absolutely do show the difference in terms of the team’s effectiveness in the running game which is the strength of their offense. Everything else they do both sides of the ball comes from their ability to pound the ball and control the clock. Personally I was sorry to see the move away from Smith because I thought he deserved the chance to try and take the team to the title and he had earned the right. I think the team is better with him behind center because of his experience. I can’t even count the number of times when I heard him check out of a play at the line of scrimmage and saw that play turn into a big gain. Those of you lamenting his 3rd down conversion rate forget that they were routinely churning out big gains on first and second which rarely got them to third downs I think Smith beats Chicago and New Orleans because those were largely defenvise wins. I think he beats the Rams twice if he doesn’t go out with the concussion and he certainly beats the Cardinals so the only games in question are New England and Seattle which are hard to call. I doubt he puts the ball on the ground 4 times or throws the pick in the endzone and his ability to manage the running game keeps the ball out of New Englands hands more in the second half but he would have never made the throw to Crabtree that split the defenders on that one TD pass. Tough to know about Seattle. They barely beat them at home and probably would have lost except for all the drops by the Hawks receivers and the game there was just a beat down on all levels. But even if you give Smith both of those losses he still ends up with a better record than Kaep through the course of the season and that’s what it is all about right? I would have liked their chances to go to the bowl with Smith at QB now I think it is a toss-up

Mark M

strong piece TK!

Kuni

49ers by 14 book it, bring on Seattle….

bullship

Well I have ben gone from these pages for quite some time- sorry to see so many nay sayers and negative nanny’s on here,

Some facts;

Out of the 8 teams left the Niners have the best Defense overall. And have for the past 2 seasons. Seattle is very good BUT they are only average vs the run and lost Clemmons vs the Skins.

The Niners have the best pass rush left- especially when you consider they blitz RARELY. Denver is solid but I would give the Niners an edge.

Kapernick- (Wilson is very good but more of a scrambler than a runner imo) – is by far the best running QB left. That is a plus in close games.

The Niners get to play at home- and IF they have to play Seattle, that is a major plus. It is also a plus vs GB this week.

Fact. The Moss, Crabtree, Davis and Walker combo is far better than the receivers that the Niners played with vs the Giants last year. Not to mention, since the insertion of Kapernick -Crabtree has become VERY effective.

If at the start of the season you had told me they would have to beat Green Bay at home and then either Atlanta (road)or Seattle (home)- I would have been pretty happy with that.

Final comment- All the teams left have flaws/issues. I actually think it will come down to Seattle or SF- The NFC is better than the AFC right now- and those are the two best running and defensive teams left.

Green Bay is VERY overrated and all about Rodgers- the rest of the team is very average-especially along the OL and DL.

Niners win by 7+ vs GB and …we will see next week.

bullship

Well I have been gone from these pages for quite some time- sorry to see so many nay sayers and negative nanny’s on here,

Some facts;

Out of the 8 teams left the Niners have the best Defense overall. And have for the past 2 seasons. Seattle is very good BUT they are only average vs the run (as the Skins showed in the 1st qter) and lost Clemmons vs the Skins.

The Niners have the best pass rush left- especially when you consider they blitz RARELY. Denver is solid but I would give the Niners an edge.

Kapernick- (Wilson is very good but more of a scrambler than a runner imo) – is by far the best running QB left. That is a plus in close games.

The Niners get to play at home- and IF they have to play Seattle, that is a major plus. It is also a plus vs GB this week.

Fact. The Moss, Crabtree, Davis and Walker combo is far better than the receivers that the Niners played with vs the Giants last year. Not to mention, since the insertion of Kapernick -Crabtree has become VERY effective.

If at the start of the season you had told me they would have to beat Green Bay at home and then either Atlanta (road)or Seattle (home)- I would have been pretty happy with that.

Final comment- All the teams left have flaws/issues. I actually think it will come down to Seattle or SF- The NFC is better than the AFC right now- and those are the two best running and defensive teams left.

Green Bay is VERY overrated and all about Rodgers- the rest of the team is very average-especially along the OL and DL.

Niners win by 7+ vs GB and …we will see next week

Just The Facts

* Everyone IS NOT saying that the move to Kaep was the right thing to do. Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, and others were quoted as saying that they disagreed with the move. In fairness, they all recognize Kaep is there as the QB of the future, but the timing of the change…when Alex was having his best year (in only his 2nd season in Harbaugh’s offense)…was what they disagree with.

* Anyone that says that Kaep is just as good (or better) than Alex at the line of scrimmage (getting plays off on time and changing plays) needs to go to Football 101 and learn the game. Alex was lauded by John Gruden, Cris Collingsworth, and Steve Young (to name a few) how good he was at changing plays at the line of scrimmage to allow for the correct play and good gains.

* Here’s the stats for 2012. They both had the same amount of pass attempts, but Alex had a better completion % rate, more TD passes, better QBR, and just 0.3 yards less per completion. Kaep had less sacks, but was a mere 20-something yards less in sack yardage losse than Alex.

* Lastly, throwing out the 1st Rams game where Alex was hurt (both QBs played) and even including the 2nd Rams Game where more game time was included to assist Kaep’s TOP…Alex had better “time of possession” (TOP) stats 31.49 -> 31.29…and better 3rd down percentage success 39% -> 34%.

Yes, this about the 49ers v. Green Bay on Saturday, but before anyone starts opening up their pie hole about negative Alex stuff, remember “Just the Facts”.

Just The Facts

Tom:

You bring up good points and I agree with you!

Throwing out the 1st Rams game where Alex was hurt (both QBs played) and even including the 2nd Rams Game where more game time was included to assist Kaep’s TOP…Alex had better “time of possession” (TOP) stats 31.49 -> 31.29…and better 3rd down percentage success 39% -> 34%.

Niner

Though I agree we need to bully GB, and we can IMO we can’t win a Super Bowl with that technique . Bill Walsh said he beat “tough” teams like that 8-10 times. If you meet a tougher team ( see Seattle, giants, Minnesota games) you lose. Bill Walsh believed in precision, fast smart football. If we merely rely on caveman football we will lose as singletary showed us with the same team 2 years ago. If we focus on execution ( no more leading the league in penalties & sacks) we can face Seattle , Atlanta and win. If we just try to outmuscle them we will not. ( next year we really need some quality d line depth, our defense especially our pass rush was miserable without cowboy! New kicker, cb, and a nfl quality wr in the draft is a must)

CitizenE

@jimmer: I have been watching football for over five decades now. Gimmicks like the pistol and the read option come and go every so many years, the best features of each incorporated into a style of offense that most makes sense in a pro game with big, fast, athletic linebackers and safeties, the rest forgotten in less than a decade.

Running qbs all must become pocket qbs to have a lasting impact on the game, and only a couple are worthy of hall of fame credentials. Guys like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady have long careers. Running qbs have knee problems, concussions, and by the time they are in their 30s have either learned to be pocket qbs or they are out of the league. The position of qb is not to be the center of all offensive play, but as Joe Montana often put it, to get the ball in his play maker’s hands.

The top 3 qbs in pro football are Brady, Manning, and Rodgers: it will be years, if ever, that any pistol or option qb will be close to their category.

WTF

“Yes, this about the 49ers v. Green Bay on Saturday, but before anyone starts opening up their pie hole about negative Alex stuff, remember “Just the Facts”.

AS & CK played different teams, different defenses, different stadiums.

AS did not play in Seattle (No one won in Seattle this season).

Facts are facts, but all facts are not equal. Fact: CK has a stronger arm, is a better runner. AS has more experience. Harbaugh has
chosen bigger and faster weapon.

Mike

Kaep has problems with opponent’s DL mixing it up (like when the Rams had their DE sink into coverage) His only audible was a slant to Crabtree. When that was taken away, he’d end up scrambling and throwing it away. Its best to line up in the power eye with two tight ends and run it down the Packers throats

http://eyemsick.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

How the hell do you write a blog about Gore’s decline without mentioning Kendall Hunter’s injury?