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OTTAWA — In the face of Jack Layton's death, the New Democratic Party's interim leader has just one job: holding a disparate and potentially fractious caucus together, political analysts say.

Nycole Turmel, a rookie MP, surfaced Tuesday for the first time since the announcement of Layton's passing, to express gratitude to the thousands of Canadians who have shared in the party's mourning, and to thank Prime Minister Stephen Harper for allowing a full state funeral Saturday.

In the weeks ahead, Turmel will need to bring coherence to the party as some New Democrats start lobbying openly to fill the leadership hole. Parliament resumes Sept. 19, the day Layton said he would be back at work as leader of the official Opposition — an unprecedented role for the party.

Turmel said Tuesday that, following the recommendation of Layton in a letter he wrote days before his death, she intends to stay on as interim leader until the permanent successor is elected. That election isn't expected to happen until next year, and Turmel said she hasn't started thinking about that step.

"We haven't worked on the details (of a leadership convention) at this point. We'll do that, (but) this week we want to grieve," she said.

The time between now and the convention could be very rocky for the NDP, said Maxwell Cameron, director of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Institutions at the University of British Columbia.

The key to the NDP's victory in Quebec was Layton's success and popularity there, he said.

"With that out of the picture, we're back looking at a perilous situation for the NDP. The gamble, the plan they took was going to be a difficult one to execute. And it was going to take a seasoned politician to pull it off," he said.

Without the right person at the helm, the NDP strategy, which focused on building support in Quebec, could crumble and take the caucus down with it, Cameron warned.

Both Turmel and Thomas Mulcair, the party's deputy leader and its first member to win a seat in Quebec, acknowledged it won't be easy to fill the large shoes now left empty.

Both MPs said their party will remain focused on spreading Layton's message.

"We have an obligation — that's what he gave us as his legacy. It's important for us to continue that, and Canadians are entitled to it," Turmel said.

Turmel arrived in Parliament after the May 2 election with dozens of new NDP MPs from Quebec who pulverized the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals in the province.

Less than three months after the election, and with one quick Parliamentary session under her belt, Turmel found herself swept into the office of the leader of the Opposition after her caucus followed the advice of its ailing leader and accepted her as interim leader.

In his letter released posthumously, Layton stood firmly behind Turmel, though she has faced controversy already. First she was forced to field questions and criticisms about her bilingualism and her brief political resume, then about previous memberships with the separatist parties Bloc Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire.

But Turmel, who represents Hull-Aylmer, Que., should be able to weather the storm because she has the support of her caucus — demonstrated through its unanimous decision to have her stand as interim leader, said Nelson Wiseman, associate professor political science at the University of Toronto.

And as a Quebecer who supported the province's federal party, she has demonstrated her allegiance to the social values of the voters largely responsible for helping the NDP win its place as official Opposition, he said.

"Also, Turmel has natural organizational and analytical skills," Wiseman said of the former president of the Public Service Alliance of Canada. "Being head of that union is a challenging, demanding job."

Still, as the party's new face, Turmel will have to exercise a huge amount of discipline or risk losing everything for the party, Cameron said.

"It's true Layton brought the party to unprecedented success," he said. "But if the party can act in a disciplined, mature and responsible way, then they have a fair amount of time to convince the electorate that they are still a credible alternative."

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