Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

No, it wasn’t from a shady deal made with a seedy character in a bad part of town. I was in the hospital, recovering from surgery, and while I wasn’t in a lot of pain, the nurse suggested something to help me sleep better. I didn’t really think I needed it—but within seconds of that needle puncturing my skin, I WAS IN HEAVEN.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Last week we seen the stock markets go down and the precious metals stock indexes go up for the most part, inverse correlation. Friday the stock markets had a big reversal day with the PM stocks being mostly flat to down. It will be interesting to see how long this inverse correlation holds together.

Lets start with a daily chart for GDM that is showing a falling wedge at the moment that has broken out to the upside with a backtest to the top rail last Friday. The PSAR has been on a buy signal for 3 days now. The MACD and Histogram are still in negative territory while the slow stoch is rising giving us a mixed picture at the present time.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Oil and Energy Investor Staff write: Anyone who’s ever stood in the ocean knows its power. During a storm, ocean waves can pound houses, trees and cars into rubble. The steady waves can pulverize rocks and sweep swimmers out to sea in an instant.

But what if you could turn the pounding of the waves into a pollution-free source of energy?

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Precious metals markets have been showing strength as investors start to take profits in stocks (with prices still trading near record levels). This has helped move money into assets like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV), which continue to rebound from their yearly lows. Many of these rallies have been prompted by geopolitical concerns in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iraq.

Saturday, August 09, 2014

What do you get when a bunch of unelected bureaucrats band together? The EU. How is the EU different from the US? There is no difference, except that the US has the illusion of electing bureaucrats. The de facto corporate federal government remains undiscovered by the vast majority of US citizens. Thanks goes to the Rothschilds for setting everything up.

When one utilizes the axiom, "Follow the money," all roads lead to the Rothschilds and their formula of gaining control of a nation's money supply and then making all the rules. While that is the simplified version, it is no less insidiously true. In the process of gaining control of a nation's money supply, each country's gold holdings were ransacked, and in the case of the US, the then world's largest silver holdings were also stolen.

Saturday, August 09, 2014

Dear Reader, my apologies for the stunning revelation regarding the upcoming cataclysmic drop in the value of gold. I realize that my fellow gold bugs will be reaching for some form of chemical assistance to help them regain their composure after contemplating the implications of the title of my commentary. Gold bugs, I am sure, will scour my words to find evidence in my analysis that my statement is entirely incorrect.

Friday, August 08, 2014

The mighty GLD gold ETF’s bullion holdings have remained stable in 2014, an impressive feat. Last year they suffered an epic outlying record plummet as the Fed’s stock-market levitation sucked capital out of alternative investments. This year’s resiliency in the face of the ongoing stock-market melt-up almost certainly means the bottom is in. GLD’s holdings are set to surge as weaker stock markets entice traders back.

The SPDR Gold Shares gold ETF, GLD, is a juggernaut in the gold realm. Now approaching its tenth birthday, it has grown into the world’s flagship and massively-dominant gold ETF. GLD’s impact on the global gold price can be so supreme and overpowering at times that all precious-metals investors and speculators simply have to follow it. Last year was a key case in point, where GLD trading controlled gold.

Gold climbed $5.20 or 1.42% yesterday to $1,311.60/oz and silver fell $0.08 or 1.16% to $19.96/oz.

Gold is up nearly 2% this week on safe haven buying, its best weekly performance since mid-June. Gold hit three week highs overnight at $1,322.60/oz, having started to push higher in U.S. trading hours yesterday due to tensions with Russia and the renewed bombing of Iraq.

Friday, August 08, 2014

We've been very bullish on the miners since January but became concerned recently with the poor technical action in the metals (specifically Gold). Last month the mining indices were very close to a major breakout yet couldn't punch through. This signaled that Gold could begin a deeper decline and the miners would be vulnerable. However, Gold failed to break below $1280 while the miners have continued to digest their early summer gains and hold support. In addition, Gold is showing increasing relative strength amid US$ strength and equity market weakness. If Gold continues to show this kind of relative strength in the weeks ahead then it raises the odds that the miners will break to the upside in September.

Thursday, August 07, 2014

Every now and again to amuse myself I try catch up on gossip and read the featured articles about gold and silver! Quiet a read especially when the same methods give so many different results depending on how prices moved in the last few days! Suffice to say my MO indicator is wonderful - just see if the top 10 best of the week read articles, check out the gold and silver ones, count how many are bullish or bearish on prices and they move the opposite way of the majority!

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Downward manipulation of gold and silver is real, declares Jason Hamlin, but the longer it continues, the higher prices will go when the free market reasserts itself. In this interview with The Gold Report, the publisher of the Gold Stock Bull newsletter argues that rising geopolitical anxiety coupled with endless monetary expansion could lead to explosive growth in precious metals and equities, and lists his favorite royalty/streaming companies and favorite gold and silver miners.

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Global annual silver production is approximately 820,000,000 ounces or a bit more than 25,000 metric tons. What does that mean in terms that we can more easily understand?

If the global annual mine production of silver were cast into one large silver pyramid, it would be approximately - wait for it - only 65 feet high on a base of only 65 feet square. Rather tiny! For future reference, this is one "silver pyramid."

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are now justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Yesterday’s price action in the precious metals market was very specific. Gold declined very little, silver declined much more, and mining stocks moved a bit higher. When we see a mirror image of such action (gold pauses, silver rallies and miners decline a bit), it’s usually a sign of a top. Have we just seen a local bottom? Let’s take a look at the charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com), starting with silver.

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Jim Bach writes: Silver prices may have had an unremarkable July, trading down 3%, but if recent history is any indication, August could help steer prices in the right direction and draw in the bulls.
silver price forecast

One reason for a rosy silver price forecast for August is that the white metal has finished up every year in this month for the last five years, averaging a return of 10.4%.

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Since my last reports on both gold and silver, price has come down to some key levels identified in those reports. So will both gold and silver turn up from here? Let's have a look at the charts and do our best to find out.

Now keeping in mind that my longer term view on both gold and silver is that they are currently in a consolidation phase within an overall bear trend with the final low still to come, most likely in 2015. This has been detailed in previous reports.

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Investors commonly assume that rising interest rates adversely impact the gold price, and vise versa. They believe that a rising interest rate environment is indicative of a strong economy, which is supposed to drive investors out of gold and into the stock market. They further assume that investors will want to exchange their gold, which has no yield, for stocks and bonds, both of which have yields and generate income.

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