As case numbers grow alarmingly, rumors and speculation abound

As the number of victims passes the 3,000 mark, researchers fear another explosion in the number of Ebola patients if no progress is made in combating the virus.

They have also shown that, contrary to a commonly held view, the number of women infected by the virus is no larger than that of men.

Thousands of vaccines could be available by the start of 2015 and will be given to health workers as a matter of priority.

On Friday September 26 in New York, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued an urgent call: "The world can and must stop Ebola – now."

It was a call taken up by the President of Liberia, one of the countries most affected by the disease. "Today we face perhaps the greatest challenge for we cannot allow the worst-case scenario, in which more than 100,000 of our citizens could die from an enemy disease they don't understand, to come about," warnedEllen Johnson Sirleaf.

But despite the solemn statements and calls for help, words – even those issued by the world's most important leaders – have failed to halt the advance of the virus.

The World Health Organisation has just announced that the number of Ebola deaths has passed 3,000, a figure which could well increase in the coming months according to experts at the WHO and Imperial College London. Writing in an article in the highly respected New England Journal of Medicine, they warn that if anti-Ebola measures in West Africa are not stepped up quickly, more than 20,000 people will have been infected by the start of November.

Vulnerability of women in question

The article also provides other information, in particular on the profile of the victims. At the start of the epidemic, the idea emerged that women were more affected than men. In July, the Liberian authorities confirmed that 75% of Ebola victims were women. On September 11 UNICEF weighed in, adding that "More than two thirds of cases of death linked to the virus are women." This confirmation was later repeated word-for-word by Ban Ki-moon.

This spectacular percentage raised a number of concerns and infectious disease specialists have been examining the possibility that women may be more vulnerable to the virus. This type of gender inequality exists in the case of AIDS, for example. In sub-Saharan Africa, the region most affected by HIV, women represent 60% of those infected.

One of the explanations lies in the greater biological vulnerability of women. It is estimated that the risk of HIV transmission during sexual intercourse is twice as high from male to female as vice versa. The reason for this is simple: the surface area of the genital mucous membrane exposed to sexual secretions and micro-tears, which can aid the penetration of the virus, is greater in women.

"It's about 50:50"

However, the same is not true of Ebola. "We have no evidence which leads us to believe that women are more sensitive to the Ebola virus," confirms Sylvain Baize, head of the Centre for Haemorrhagic Viruses at the Institut Pasteur. Most importantly, the New England Journal of Medicine's recent article corrects the picture by confirming that there is no "significant difference" between men and women, while on Friday the WHO in Geneva gave the figure as "about 50:50".

This view is shared by Prof. Jean-François Delfraissy, Director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in Paris. "At the start of the epidemic it appeared that more women were being infected but largely because they were in the front line when it came to caring for the sick at home or in treatment centres.

Today women do appear to show a slightly higher rate of mortality than men after infection, but certainly not in a ratio of anything like two thirds to a third."

Thousands of vaccines available soon

On September 26, the WHO nevertheless announced the good news that thousands of vaccines should be available at the start of 2015. "It's an advance, but there's still a lot we don't know about this vaccine. We know that it is well tolerated, but for the moment we have no data on its immunogenicity (i.e. its ability to provoke an immune response, Ed.). And we don't know if the antibodies produced by the vaccine will be able to provide protection against Ebola," commentedProf. Delfraissy with a note of caution.

"It will be impossible to vaccinate all the populations exposed straight away. To start with only a few thousand doses will actually be available and they will have to be given to health workers as a matter of priority,"the specialist added.

More on the death toll as it passes 3,000

The Ebola virus epidemichas reached 3,000 victims and according to the latest figures from the World Health Organisation almost half of those infected have died.

The WHO has indicated that of a total of 6,574 Ebola patients in five countries in West Africa, 3,093 have died, including 648 in Guinea, 1,830 in Liberia, 605 in Sierra Leone and 8 in Nigeria. In Senegal, one victim who had travelled from Guinea has recovered.

Yesterday Liberia's chief medical officer, Bernice Dahn, was placed in quarantine in Monrovia following the death of her deputy on September 25. According to French Health Minister Marisol Touraine, the MSF nurse repatriated to France after having contracted the disease in Liberia is in a "stable condition".

The United States has sent around a hundred of the 3,000 soldiers it will be deploying in a humanitarian mission against Ebola to be head-quartered in Monrovia (Liberia). France has promised to set up a specialist hospital. On September 25 Cuba announced that it was increasing the number of health workers being sent to fight the epidemic from 165 to 461.

Expert warns on African funeral rituals: Global Pulse staff report:

One of the scientists who identified the first outbreak of Ebola has warned that west African funeral traditions, which are continuoing unchecked, may be helping to spread the virus.

"There are very strong traditional beliefs and traditional funeral rites which require that the whole family touch the dead body and they have a meal in its presence," said Peter Piot, who is now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Piot is now working to reach elders and opinion formers in African traditional religion and culture to warn against the practice, as the virus can be transmitted by dead bodies.

He has also welcomed the relaxation of the normal procedures for testing new vaccines, as laid down by the World Health Organization. The process normally takes years but Piot said in an interview last weekend: ""It may be that without a vaccine, we can't really stop this epidemic."

The WHO has convened an emergency meeting today to discuss ethics and practicalities with doctors and pharamceutical firms. It hopes to begin small-scale use of experimental vaccines as soon as January.

Have Thai doctors found an antidote?

Meanwhile a team of researchers at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, claim to have developed an effective Ebola vaccine. Udom Kachintorn, dean of the hospital's Faculty of Medicine, has called a press conference for Thursday October 2 to make a formal announcement.

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