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Strategy Briefing

Travel: Quarterly Statement Q2 2018

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In the Travel Quarterly Statement for Q2 2018, we review the latest performance of travel and tourism demand, considering the key growth drivers impacting destinations and source markets. With growing anti-globalisation sentiment, a trade war between the US and China has erupted. Despite hosting the FIFA World Cup 2018, Russian inbound demand is expected to be weak, due to geopolitical and security concerns. A potential Korean conflict would have wide-felt repercussions in Asia and beyond.

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Skies clearing

The forecasts for 2018 have been revised upwards for both trips and spending over the last quarter, with stronger economic growth in the US, Japan and the Eurozone, whilst certain emerging markets, like Russia, benefited from increasing oil prices.

Powered up

Turkey is powering on with its tourism recovery, with arrivals gaining strongly and pre-crisis levels expected to be achieved by 2020. Despite its internal tensions, the country is seeing stronger demand from Germany and Russia.

Lifting the cup

Despite a backdrop of sanctions and political tensions, Russia is expected to see a minor uplift in arrivals by hosting the FIFA World Cup 2018. However, demand is expected be muted, with weak demand for tournament ticket sales.

Tit for tat

Protectionism is on the rise and the Trump trade war rhetoric has become a reality, with the US imposing tariffs on China and other trade partners. The resulting impact on US arrivals would be a fall of 3% in the first year.

No winners

Rising populism in Europe is leading to borders being closed as concerns mount about immigration and global trade. The worst case scenario of a global downturn would result in global demand being weighed down over the long term.

Only losers

Despite the Trump-Kim Summit, there are still risks of a Korean conflict escalating. The biggest negative impact would be felt in North Korea and equally around the Asia Pacific region as South Koreans stop travelling, as well as stalling Korean arrivals.

Fasten your seatbelt

With less than a year to go, there is still uncertainty about the shape that Brexit will take for the UK after it leaves the EU. A No Deal Brexit deal points to the biggest negative impact for UK outbound as the economy stalls, whilst Light Brexit would lift long haul.