A hard rain is a gonna fall~Nervous Democrats~perceive a rustling of the leaves–but have not looked to the far sky and seen the black storm clouds~which darken daily and approach with a rain that will make the leaf rustling soon forgotten~

At Washington today, the sun plays hide and seek~~making~~Democrats very nervous and they write and chatter of danger coming for them~~but they do not know just how dangerous life is about to become for them~

Notes fly back and forth as Democrats try to re-assure one another that the storm will pass. Scribbled responses to them follow on~~

I thank Chris for his responding for the Democratic side of the aisle. If not anywhere else of this city, here we try our best to have all voices heard and encourage the members to consider the varied points of view tendered here carefully~~

I will say however, that as a practical matter, the government we have now–most particularly in Lower House–is the government we are going to have for the near duration–notwithstanding editorials in the Outlook.

Hedrick has been incisive as ever in his earlier comment on the gerryrig process and I have said to him that while he may not like it now-it is and was~~ just what it is and it ever will be~~ a two-sided sword-sometimes my guys benefit–sometimes–yours.

The men of the Lower House on our side of things are not confused–they are doing what their people back home want–as long as they do that–they will be elected.

For the less political of the group, I caution that they be careful of news items such as how low marks the Lower House gets in surveys–those men here who work or have worked directly in the trenches of politics know that the Lower House does not stand for re-election–its Members do–and if they are popular at home–they will be re-elected.

Hedrick has written of his concerns of gerryrigging but he must consider–in order to gerryrig–one must have the requisite power to do so in the States–and this is where things get very, very dicey for the Democrats–long duration–as my Party increasingly controls more and more State Capitals–even in deep blue States–and that means we have an hospitable structure for our national candidates and, far more importantly, we have the Upper and Lower Houses in these States in addition to the Governors mansions–which, taken in tandem with our continued control of the national Lower House means that–from the Democratic point of view–things can only get much worse for them.

Mr. Kaiser, Mr Ornstien and Mr Mann have no vague clue how much worse-or better–depending upon one’s point of view- things are going to get. They perceive a rustling of the leaves–but have not looked to the far sky and seen the black storm clouds–which darken daily and approach with a rain that will make the leaf rustling soon forgotten~

I cannot leave it unremarked that it is to me, at a minimum sanctimonious, to hear the wails of the afflicted majority when, very recently, their side did precisely the same things to young Bush

I have mentioned before that 2012 was status quo ante election–I kept my pieces of the jigsaw–and you kept yours–I suspect that it is dawning on the blue side that if they were given the chance to trade jigsaw pieces–they would rather have mine than their own–and right they would be as control of the Lower House–is the sine qua non–without it–nothing–moves. Senators and Presidents can pout and posture–but we have the real power–there is nothing they can do.

Gentlemen-that is the game–it always has been the game–the older parties here–Hedrick, Harrison and I have been around the racetrack long enough to remember when Mitchel and Dole were trading places of power with each other and they were savage antagonists. Perhaps the others named were even at a luncheon I attended in which George and Bob agreed only one thing, smilingly

“my job is to roll bombs under the car of the opposition–that’s my job.”

That is, has been and ever will be the job of the opposite sides of this city–to bomb the other Party–why–because that is what these men are sent here by the people who elected them to do–bomb the other side

My men in the Lower House do not report to the Washington Post or to Mr Ornstein– or his friends–they’ve never heard of them and don’t care sixpence about them–they report to their constituents–who–want them to continue bombing the other side. And, so they will do~~

There are a few men here who have day-to day exposure to the Congress itself and not merely friendly newspapers–and they will tell you that 95%+++ of the Members will be re-elected easily~both sides–I can personally not think of more than a dozen seats out of 435 actually in what we used to call “motion” meaning up for grabs–at least 3 of these to my personal knowledge are held–having won photo finishes in 2012–by the blue side–so what movement there may be next season–will be a few here –a few there–no net change of power. there is no doubt of it~~what is more–given retirements and other factors–we have a shot at taking the upper house–but that would simply be the frosting–we already have the cake itself–we can live without the frosting~

Hedrick, Harrison and I are old enough to remember when majority rule in the Lower House-then Democratic always- was far, far, more rigid and ruthless so the benefit of long exposure leaves me to think that the men who write these editorials actually are simply coy and naive or they are simply upset which side now rules with rigid, unbending, absolute authority–I never heard these men complain when the shoe was on their foot and not my own~~ John Begg

Very interesting John.

The House stays in Republican control for two reasons redistricting and State House/local politics.

Best,

Steve

Yes, Steve–And…It does indeed stay that way for both reasons–likely for a very long time–few people in US understand how this works–The Census doesn’t just count people–it reflects where they are counted– and distributes districts accordingly–that is the real kickoff to the game–so–the most important dynamic on the ground in American politics is to have the State power in hand so that you can make use of new Districts after the Census~

Danny–i think it would be fictional to do to imagine otherwise–and, as you might be going up there to the Hill–this all gives you a bit of a leg up in that many of the elected men up there never think of the census–of state power and how those things pretty well dictate who will run things here–as the census drives the horse out of the gate–any shift in this will not be apparent until–earliest–2023 January–but even then it is hard to see why a change would occur–the things that drive census–movement of populations out of big, urban industrial states–blue– of the north and middle west into the south and west–red–absent California, which is losing seats–fairly well guarantees the bettor in advance who will be the winner in that likely continuing scenario–as those states that are increasing in population–are states that increasingly are places that my guys have all the horses to make the census figures work for them

Danny–I think again, young man–you need to concentrate your attention more on the dynamics of how men get here in the first place and a lot less on what they do when they arrive–legislation is simply a by-product—as is justice in a court–justice is a fine dessert–but getting your client acquitted is the whole banquet–and a lawyer can live very well without dessert. there are of course remote possibilities otherwise, but consider that Jake Boehner, absent death from cigarettes or being tossed out by his own–a la Gingrich– is very likely going to be speaker when the baby is married with children~and a number of presidents will have come and gone and been forgotten~