He could win the General election against Quinn, but that assumes he could win the Primary and that Quinn would be his opponent in the General.

If the Republicans can settle down and get behind a moderate in the primary, Dillard would be a good example of the way to go. However, it will probably be a battle royale amongst everyone from Walsh to Rutherford to Schock to Plummer to Brady. Heaven only knows what will emerge from that, and, if it is a moderate, it will most likely be a damaged product.

Dillard won his election with 66% of the vote, the highest percentage among DuPage Republicans and the highest total of any Republican Senator that had a contested race. The demographics of his district include Elmhurst, where Quigley will represent and a number of Democratic areas of strength.

If you divide the Republican primary electorate into two pools it seems that Dillard, Rutherford and Shock are all trying to pull votes from that same pool and it’s the smaller of the two pools. When it comes to predicting the behavior of Republican primaries I have an awful track record but someone from the conservative wing of the party seems more mathematically plausible.

Isn’t he getting a little long in the tooth…in the political sense, that is. Seems like he’s been around for eons. The Republican trend, at least nationally, may be to get younger newer candidates who can cast off the past, and so forth.

In 2010, he won the Metro East area and the 6 counties surrounding Springfield. He has been invited to speak at 6 events south of I-64, since September (including several others in the western part of the state and the collars), and already has had Sen. John O. Jones endorse him for 2014. Dillard is not just a regional candidate.

You’ve got to think even the social conservatives in IL are getting separate and willing to back their “Bob Casey” (lib Dems backing a pro life PA Senator), just somebody who can win and get them back to the table.

Dillard is the GOP’s best hope for Governor. Judy and Rutherford need to stay put. He’d have an excellent shot against Quinn. However, I’m betting that Quinn get’s jettisoned by the Dems. Probably L. Madigan or W. Daley will be the standard bearer.

Schock runs as a social moderate? Hmmm…I think Rich’s point about him actually showing a record like that would be the first step.

I will say this though–he scares me as a Democrat because he works hard and comes off as more moderate than he is.

This is different from Dillard who I could potentially support against Quinn. Dillard is relatively conservative on social issues, but he’s moderate on running a government to do the things it needs to do.

I’ve said this before, and it looks like I’ll get to say it again and again: if the GOP wants to win, Dillard is the type of Republican that can win statewide. He got too close to the ring wing flame last time trying to win the primary, but that’s how it goes when the geniuses at Illinois Review force their litmus test on all of the contenders.

Rauner = McKenna + Gidwitz.

Schock has a sweet gig in DC that he’d be crazy to give up when time is on his side. Aaron, think how cool it’ll be in the Senate in a few years. Save your money.

Rutherford should take on White or stay where he’s at. JBT should ride off into the sunset and let Adam A buy that nomination.

There is a way for the ILGOPs to put together a ticket that appeals to a lot of voters, but it has to have an electable candidate for Governor at the top.

That person isn’t Joe Walsh, but if I was handicapping the race today, Walsh would be my front runner to win the nomination. That’s how screwed up the IL GOP is today.

First hand experience…Dillard is a poor campaigner one on one and in groups. He still hasn’t figured out that Illinois exists below I-80, even though he went to school in Macomb. He was a disaster downstate. He is too socially conservative for northern Illinois. How about something or someone new for IGOP? It’s demographics and real issues stupid!

Dillard would certainly be much preferable to Quinn, but he really is more of the same old crowd that has been around forever. He’d end up gov as things really fall apart and the gop would take the blame for Madigan’s 30 years of out of control spending.

I sometimes wonder if Dillard would have beaten Brady if punch card ballots were still in use in the precincts. Schillerstrom pulled in a few thousand wasted votes on the electronic voting machines which could not be reprogrammed to remove his name when he withdrew as a gubernatorial candidate. In the ballot books, a name could be removed using electrical tape.

===193 votes - NO Field Operations = Loss===
Willy is right on this. He should be laying the groundwork NOW. Find people to put the boots on the ground. Money is very important but as the dems just proved, dragging voters out of their homes works. I would be working Cook County almost as hard as the collars, NOW. There are almost as many GOP votes there as DuPage. Not to ignore downstate but that is where you spend your TV money. And pull a Blago and lock up the County Chairmen, NOW. They are interested in getting the jobs back and not making budget cuts a priority like the right wingers want.

(For some reason this is the second time today this democrat is giving the republicans advice)

Is the ILGOP really going to put a moderate out there for us to think about this time? Because I like Pat Quinn as a person, but as a governor? Not so much. Which is also not a surprise. He hasn’t stopped thinking of himself as the outsider and it’s no way to govern.

–I would be working Cook County almost as hard as the collars, NOW. There are almost as many GOP votes there as DuPage.–

Sigh.

No, there are many more GOP votes in Cook County than DuPage.

Romney got 479,000 votes in Cook, 193,000 votes in DuPage.

Romney got 145,000 votes in the City of Chicago. Guess how many counties had more votes for Romney? Just DuPage.

The 101-county strategy is just nuts. The GOP loses time after time running anti-Cook and anti-Chicago campaigns — and by simply refusing to build organizations there at all. They leave tens of thousands of votes in the field.

The term Reagan Democrat was practically invented in Chicago.

It didn’t use to be that way; the GOP used to work it to knock down the Dem vote, but not anymore. I blame Madigan’s Jedi mind tricks.

===In the end it doesn’t matter who the GOP puts up for Gov. Look at what happened two days ago, quit kidding yourselves,the GOP is gone in this state and it will take decades to change its signature.===

If we Keep Cross and Radogno .. and the mindset of the “Fire Madigan” ILGOP, then maybe you are right.

However,

If we make big changes, do the things we forgot are important, we can start by taking away the Mansion, and adding a Statewide or two as well.

2014 needs NOT to be a repeat of 2012, or 2010(Cincy), its up to Us in the ILGOP.

Also,

===(For some reason this is the second time today this democrat is giving the republicans advice)===

You have nothing to fear, there are too many of us “yelling in the wind” that no one listens to, so they will just add your good advice to their “white noise” mentality. Fear not, it will fall on deaf ears…SADLY.

I was actually talking about the primary. I am pretty sure DuPage was still first last March. And my guess is, if there are other contested Dem races in a primary, the GOP turnout in Cook will still be lower.
But I agree with the rest of your post. As to your point, the 19th ward and the NW side wards of Chicago usually only have about 5% of the primary voters pull a GOP ballot. But when the General election rolls around they go about 40% for the top of the ticket in presidential years.

Enough with the Adam AndjewIDIOT stuff. The guy is toxic and Dan 2% Proft???????? PLEEEAAAASE! Those are the kind of right wing haters that are the cause of the problem. Kirk Dillard can win the general election and nobody else in the field has nearly as good a shot.

The issue of the GOP Gubernatorial in 2014 is not about Radogno or Cross, they’re irrelevant. To say they will is to buy off on a reverse “fire Madigan” factor.

I see Cullerton and Madigan having more of an impact on GOP chances for a GOP governor than Radogno and Cross. By that I mean they will have a prominent role in establshing state policy over the next two years. They will seek to bail Quinn out and try to make him look like an effective leader or basically toss him aside and decide that another Dem standard bearer will be necessary. My money is on a new Dem standard bearer.

The bottom line is that I don’t see any hope for the GOP. Too many wingnuts will rally behind another rich candidate and lead them to another Wednesday in November asking how they can change their fortunes.

I guess what i am curious about is what issues can the GOP run on. Let me see,Obama care,Pat Quinn,State Debt, Pension reform,Mike Madigan,Tax hikes of 67%,education funding,oh that right they already tried that this time around.How did that tactic work for them?

Empty Chair is so right on about the Counties thing. if square miles won an election, individual Counties might count for something. with Illinois it’s the same thing as Ohio….you have to cut into one county to win. that is why Romney was campaigning in the Cleveland area….where it is Cuyahoga County. Here it is Cook. if your politics cannot play in Cook, forget it.

He should definitely have a leg up on other potential opponents, particularly as a moderate the way things have been going for the GOP lately, and barring some shockingly unexpected subsequent entry, (no pun intended, Rep. Schock!),is likely to end up duking it out with Dan Rutherford for the nod when all is said and done; also, Mr. Dillard should be better prepared this time for what it takes to win over a few thousand more votes than his last bid in order to get it done…

– Your schools not getting the money the state promised them when the state said they were going to get it.

– State funding cuts that impact busing service for your kids (think that will work in the burbs)

– The tax increase, It was sort of hidden in people’s paychecks because of the federal payroll tax cut. It’s gonna be noticed IMHO, also if the state is still broke (likely will be) there is a ‘what good did it do’ argument

– Delayed social program payments: We need to work to make this a local issue, dear neighbor and friends and family letters. Dear Bob I volunteer at XYZ and have seen the impact of the state paying XYZ so late

– Not honoring state employee contracts: A word is a bond, people who work for the government deserve to have their contracts be honored.

– Child care: going to work to make it easier for home child care operators (quicker licensing, lower fees, no state taxes on income first year)

Keep in mind, Sen. Dillard gets to be part of ‘the nineteen’ and their agenda in the build up to the gov race. Are they going to caucus in Jim Oberweis’ black helicopter or Kyle McCarter’s one-room school house? It would seem that the company he keeps in the months ahead could become problematic. Keep in mind, his first vote may very well be to kick a suburban woman out of a leadership post.

One man,
Here are the problems with your Dillard platform.
The SGOPs wants deeper school funding cuts.
The SGOPs opposed the current state employee contract
The SGOPs opposed the refinancing plans that would have provided schools and social programs the money they’re owed (the SGOP plan is to cut their funding so the next check they get is their last)

I could go on and on, but it’s better to just go to YouTube and call up the “Reality Check” news conference and let Kirk and his SGOP pals explain it.

As a fairly loyal Democrat, I would have easily voted for him over Quinn (but not a right winger like Brady). So just like for national REpublicans (and fox and talk radio), will the conservative party in this country nominate moderates? If so, they’ll win. If not, just ask severe conservative Romney.

I don’t mean to belabor the point, but rank-and-file Republican leaders downstate HATED that Obama ad.

Kirk is a good guy. He’s pragmatic, and has been working very hard traveling the state doing all sorts of downstate GOP stuff. He is NOT a moderate, however, unless you mean voting for tax deals with Senate Dems. He’s made a deal with the devil in Jack Roeser, though, and many of us are disappointed.

Thanks to the early announcements for Governor by Rutherford and Schock we can look forward to the start of the 2014 election. This will be an expensive race and the contributors will want to see some type of a consensus candidate from the GOP before throwing around money. Have to wonder whether Pat Brady and company can pull this off. Joe Walsh has more determination and energy than anyone, but he is totally unelectable and will not attract the money needed for this race.

Bruce Rauner is loaded, but does he really have the temperament and determination to get out and meet the voters. Maybe he really covets a seat at the table; Illinois Board of Education perhaps.

Dillard is the only GOP candidate who can maneuver the changed political landscape. Whether the social ideologues can come to grips with this reality is anyone’s guess.

Dillard’s time has come and gone. He’s been running for governor for the last 20 years. He didn’t have the political muscle to get the other losers off the ballot in 2010 and lost to Brady who the vast majority of voters voted against.

He may have done well on Tuesday but I don’t think the public is clamoring for him to be governor.

I think a Schock vs Dillard primary would be a W for Schock. Schock will have the money and charisma to outperform Brady in Cook by a large margin while still controlling the downstate. If Brady runs however, that could create a path for Dillard by splitting the downstate vote. If Rutherford runs and there is 4 of them???

Quinn has an ego the size of the planet Jupiter. Lavin and his ilk like their hands on the levers of power way to much to simply let go - think LaFleur at Highway Authority; Meister at Finance; the talking head at Sports Authority. No way do Quinn and Lavin step down. And unless they do, Preckwinkle - who would win the general - doesn’t step up. . . . If Dillard can avoid a bloody primary with the right wing, and if Preckwinkle isn’t the Dem nominee, Dillard could win - on the merits.

Cook is aprox. 40% of the state’s population.
The handful of suburban “Collar Counties” is approx. 30%.
The resto fo Illinois is the remaining approx. 30%.
Cook will go resoundingly D, but there are a lot of R votes there (low % but large in raw numbers compared to any of the “downstate” counties).
The shift of suburban D/R split toward the D makes a GOP 102 county campaign a realistic necessity going forward, so a candidate with thoughts of winning has to up the Cook % of his/her vote a significant number of points.