A Democratic free-for-all for Pennsylvania governor

As Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett’s approval ratings sink lower, no fewer than eight Keystone State Democrats — with potentially more to come — have thrown their hats in the ring to take him on.

With no clear front-runner in the crowded field and one candidate pledging to drop $10 million on the primary, the May contest to choose Democrats’ challenger to Corbett has the potential to become the most competitive, costly and contentious Democratic primary of 2014. If the eventual nominee emerges from the free-for-all damaged and short on cash, it could be Corbett’s only hope of survival.

Plus, two other big names in Pennsylvania Democratic politics — former state Auditor General Jack Wagner and former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel — have expressed interest in the race and may still get in.

According to Muhlenberg College pollster Chris Borick, “2014 is everything you want for a candidate: a really wounded incumbent, and no real front-runner on the Democratic side that stands out as the presumptive nominee. Everyone thinks they have a chance.”

The huge field is a testament to Corbett’s weakness heading into next year. The state has a strong tendency to reelect its incumbent governors, making most pols wary of challenging one. Since Pennsylvania started allowing governors to run for a second term in 1968, no incumbent governor has lost a reelection battle.

But Corbett’s poll numbers suggest he could be the exception to that trend. A survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Corbett’s approval rating at 24 percent, and he trails all potential Democratic opponents by 12 points to 20 points. Another survey this fall, from Franklin & Marshall College, found that 44 percent of Republicans think Corbett should step down and let someone else run on the GOP ticket.

As a result, observers say this year’s Democratic field is the strongest ever to go up against an incumbent governor: It’s full of people from across Pennsylvania’s political and business world and seemingly checks the box for every type of candidate.

“There’s a lot of wiggle room for any number of people to see their path to victory,” said Kevin Washo, former executive director of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and a Pennsylvania state director for Obama in 2008.

At the same time, a contentious and costly Democratic primary would play into Corbett’s hands. The governor plans to raise $30 million for his reelection, and his team is hoping he’ll face a bruised — and broke — Democratic nominee come the end of May.

Observers say the race will pick up in January, when end-of-year financial reports will help sort out the field. At the moment, Schwartz and McCord are seen as the two to watch, given their fundraising prowess and record of winning elections.

The next tier of candidates includes Wolf, a York businessman and former state revenue secretary who has pledged to spend $10 million in the primary, and McGinty, who worked in the Clinton administration and still has ties to former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore. The other candidates are considered lower-tier, observers say, and their fate will depend on how much money they’re able to raise.

A survey from the GOP firm Harper Polling earlier this month found Schwartz with 22 percent, followed by 15 percent for McGinty, 12 percent for McCord, 7 percent for Hanger, 6 percent for Pawlowski and 5 percent for Wolf (a third of voters were undecided). In a PPP survey late last month, Schwartz led with 21 percent, while more than a quarter of voters were undecided.