Traffic Patterns

Aug 01, 2007

GAS PAINS

In mid-July average fuel prices pushed back past $3.00 per gallon and are up 2.0 percent from where they were a year ago. But on the whole, gas prices are up much less year-over-year than during the past two summers.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

2007

Price/Gallon

Wk./Wk. %

Rolling 4-Wk %

Rolling 52-Wk. %

6/25/07

$2.98

-0.9%

-7.1%

3.9%

7/2/07

2.96

-0.8

-6.3

0.9

7/9/07

2.98

0.7

-3.1

0.3

7/16/07

3.05

2.3

1.3

2.0

2006

6/26/06

$2.87

-0.1%

0.1%

29.5%

7/3/06

2.93

2.3

1.5

31.8

7/10/06

2.97

1.3

2.3

27.7

7/17/06

2.99

0.5

4.1

29.0

2005

6/27/05

$2.22

2.5%

5.6%

15.3%

7/4/05

2.23

0.5

5.2

17.5

7/10/05

2.33

4.6

9.3

21.4

7/18/05

2.32

-0.5

7.2

20.2

Source: Energy Information Administration, Citigroup Global Markets

ON THE CLOCK

Friedman-Billings Ramsey has 10 retailers on its Watchlist. Two are in bankruptcy protection already while the other eight are not. About half posted rough sales in June.

TROUBLED RETAILERS

Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y)

Bankruptcy

Share of Mall Space

Est. Mall Penetration

Jun-07

3-Month Average

KB Toys

0.3%

23

N/A

N/A

Eddie Bauer

0.4

17

N/A

N/A

Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y)

Negative Watchlist

Share of Mall Space

Est. Mall Penetration

Jun-07

3-Month Average

Express

1.8

64

8.0%

7.0%

Pacific Sunwear

0.7

61

5.7

-1.1

Gap

1.3

49

-9.0

-10.0

Wilson's Leather

0.2

25

-9.4

-18.1

Old Navy

1.6

24

-7.0

-10.0

Bombay Co.

0.2

15

N/A

N/A

Shaper Image

0.1

11

-7.0

-8.7

Bon-Ton

N/A

3

-18.1

-13.1

Mall Sales Monitor

0.1

0.2

Source: FBR Research & company reports

Department stores mounted a rebound over the Christmas season. But recently sales figures have begun to lag again for some. Luxury chains Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom and Neiman-Marcus have bucked that trend.