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Technology veteran Jean-Louis Gassée believes the problem is more fundamental. Gassée argues that the billions envisioned in mobile advertising revenue are a mirage. Facebook is not capturing that pot of gold because it is not there.

In a recent article at Monday Note, Gassée points out that the $20B estimate relies on the faulty critical assumption that advertising spending will follow users to mobile devices with levels of spending proportional to advertising on TVs and internet surfing PCs.

But, Gassée, observes, there are three flaws in this assumption:

1. Mobile devices, especially the smartphones that dominate usage, are not “just PCs, only smaller.”

With smartphones, we’re on the move, we’re surrounded by people, activities, real-world attractions and diversions. We’re not paying (a loaded word) the same type of attention as we do on a PC.

3. The very nature of mobile devices, including the ability to do location-based advertising, “scares consumers, rather than excites them.”

These three differences, taken together, Gassée argues, create an insurmountable obstacle to mobile advertising:

If the industry hasn’t cracked the mobile advertising code after five years of energetic and skillful work it’s because there is no code to crack.

The “$20B Opportunity” is a mirage.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that mobile platforms are a mirage. The user traffic is already there, and growing fast. But, if Gassée is anywhere near the mark and mobile advertising remains relatively small and ineffective, that $60B wager (and others like it) will continue to sour. Given that plausible doomsday scenario, Facebook, Google, Yahoo, Twitter and others whose futures are now dependent on mobile ad-supported business models would do well to start considering Plan B.

Is the growth of mobile advertising inevitable? Is it possible that mobile devices (and users) are just not hospitable to advertising? Please share your thoughts below.