"So, we have this huge disconnect between the price of gold and the margins of the miners -- which are doing very well because they had to keep their costs low -- and the price of the stocks. Now, ultimately, that will get corrected. We saw the huge run in 2015, where gold went up 30% in the beginning of 2016 and the miners went up 180%. And we saw that in 2000, when gold went up quite a bit, and the miners went up 1600%. That’s 17 times the average. We saw that in the 1970s coming out of the bear market there. We saw that on the big net buyers went up at least 10 times, and some of them went up as much as 30 times. So, this happens regularly when the miners get depressed. They get out of whack with the price of gold and margins, and then they slingshot higher. And that’s what I think we’re about to see.

We’re right there. I think there’s going to be enormous amounts of money entering this sector once again, just as we saw in early 2000s, just like we did coming out of 2015, the bottom, just as we did coming out of the 1970s mid-cycle correction. So, I’m pretty excited about it."

Saturday, 22 April 2017

Jordan reviews his focus on the juniors during the progression of a precious metals bull market, (for those convinced the turn in 2016 was the final transition to a bull market).

From the fundamentals, so often repeated by Brent Cook, of falling discovery rates and majors looking to replace depleted high grade reserves, to the investment cycles, leverage and added value of discovery and development.

I would add to this the interesting developments in the GDXJ Gold juniors ETF.
Investors are keen to get exposure to the juniors but the ETF is unable to deploy all the funds without reorganisation and is looking to move more investment in larger companies.
Will some of those investors wanting exposure to the juniors invest more directly into key junior companies? In a bull market as valuations and liquidity increase this should become more feasible.

Sunday, 26 March 2017

While stock markets soar there are conflicting signals from credit markets.
Either the stock market is seeing the other side of this, and a huge pent up lending boom for the banks after Trump cuts taxes, or the credit markets are flashing the real signals.

Sunday, 25 September 2016

Ambrose Evans Pritchard highlighting enormous global debt levels, issues with free market capitalism and encouragement by global institutions to government spending and investment, fiscal policy to take the baton from monetary policy, or be supported by monetary policy.

Acting Man reviews moves by the Japanese Central Bank targeting 10 year bonds to 0% giving governments free long term money to enact plans. Do the Central Banks have such control or can the bond vigilantes influence?

“This idea that fiscal stimulus may be coming seems to be getting sniffed out by the bond market,” Gundlach said. More debt spending may increase the cost of government borrowing by adding supply and making investors demand higher yields...........Gundlach told Reuters this summer that his firm went “maximum negative” on Treasuries on July 6 when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.32 percent. The 10-year now yields around 1.60 percent. All told, Gundlach said he turned short-term negative on gold and gold miners buthas not sold any of his firm’s positions.

Sunday, 4 September 2016

Reviews from Adam Hamilton at ZealGDX GDXJ SIL A point of particualar note; acquisition activities over the past few years have seen the "Silver Miners" become increasingly gold weighted.
A company like Silver Standard which was an ounces in the ground silver play has acquired gold mines.
Plenty more to the analysis of these companies in particular reserves and resources.
An ETF 'fundamentally' weighted by sales or production would be an interesting comparison in a bull market.

Worth keeping a close eye on this as we move into what are usually the best seasonals for gold and miners, but following an extremely big run this year.
A lot of the bigger indices and ETFs haven't done this.
Will the Venture lead or fold?

Questions of how long will your treasury last has become can you get more drills? How much money do you need, how quickly can you do something.

Many stocks have moved only justified at $1500+ gold

Majors have taken big write downs, slower to move aggressively, many established deposits are low quality and much higher prices, majors may move down the food chain for higher quality at lower price. Majors have a lot of marginal ounces they have written down, acquisition only makes sense for higher quality.

Up cycle people want to drill. Many companies just marketing, don't want to drill just finance. Better companies want to drill and find the fatal flaw quickly, not romance the project, move on.

Further along in the cycle, there will always be new projects and discoveries as more exploration underway.

investors making money in the big stocks only just beginning to trickle down, the general public isn't in yet despite big moves up from extreme bear bottom.

Followers

United Kingdom Investors in Junior Gold Stocks - ISA Eligibility

United Kingdom (UK) Investors seeking exposure to Junior Gold Stocks may wish to ensure that profits are free of capital gains tax.

This can be achieved by holding stocks in an ISA account. Current allowances are over £10,000 pa for both yourself and a spouse if you have not already subscribed to cash ISAs.

Any "Main Board" stocks can be held. With regards to junior gold stocks referenced here this means you can hold any stocks listed on the Toronto exchange, ".TO" on stock ticker references within an ISA. Australian stocks .ASX can also be held within ISAs and this can give exposure to very junior companies, although the Australian market is an area I have not had much exposure to.

You will not usually be allowed to hold Canadian Venture exchange stocks, ".v" ticker references within an ISA account. AIM stocks are also now ISA eligible.

UK Investors can realise capital gains of approx £10,000 pa before capital gains tax becomes due, with two allowances for both yourself and a spouse and you may roll forwards losses.

I have found TD Waterhouse, now TD Direct in the UK to provide very easy dealing on the Canadian exchange. Therefore ensure you realise gains before the new April UK tax year within your allowance and consider realising losses to roll forward.

NOT SMALL PRINT - DISCLAIMER

At all times I may have invested in what I find, I may have identified the stock only to watch while I concentrate on other investments, I may have sold taking profits or losses. I am not an advisor. Although I attempt to find good information it may not be accurate. Links to other sites are of interest to me but I do not offer recommendation of their accuracy or agenda. If you want to invest in this area you must do your own due diligence, it is your money. You have not paid for my research or views.This is a very risky area and can really only be defined as speculation, not investment.