UL Lafayette

Wed, Oct 9

5:00 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Louisiana-Lafayette is the only team that still has a perfect pointspread record and I think the Ragin’ Cajuns are likely to remain perfect ATS. ULL has a very good offense that is led by veteran quarterback Levi Lewis and a stable of explosive running backs that have combined to average 7.5 yards per run in 4 games against FBS opponents. Overall, UL Lafayette has averaged over 300 rushing yards in those 4 games while coming close to 500 yards per game at 7.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). Appalachian has struggled defensively, given up an average of 36.3 points in their 3 games against FBS teams while rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average. Louisiana-Lafayette should once again score a lot of points.

Appalachian State is also likely to keep the scorekeeper busy, as the Mountaineers have averaged 47 points per game and have been 0.8 yppl better than average offensively (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team). Louisiana won’t show much resistance, as the Cajuns have been 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (don’t be fooled by the 25.3 points per game allowed to FBS teams).

The weather is good for scoring (low winds, no rain, and warm night air) and both teams have a significant advantage offensively. My math model favors Louisiana-Lafayette by 4.5 points and the Ragin’ Cajuns apply to a 111-41-2 ATS home momentum situation, so I’ll lean with the home team and the over.