Sunday, March 01, 2009

February Listings Report (2009)

Don't call it a comeback... I'm certain I've said that before on one of the reports (either listings or sales). This time I'm just saying don't call it a comeback... yet.

There are some surprising results from the new contract activity. Noticeable increases in the total number of units going under contract to the plus side each of the last three months. Of course this is spurred by the foreclosure listings available as they offer the best price to buyers, and they ARE bringing out the buyers. Banks outpaced traditional sellers in negotiated agreements.

Now will these numbers turn into noticeable sales increases in units?? Still unable to determine in my opinion as some of the contracts taken are no doubt short sales, and short sales do not always make it to a successful close of escrow. The key thing that jumps out is the level of activity. More to come, but first the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Data tables for all new listings tracked in the month of February 2009

As of March 1 Total Listings on Market

Item

Total Units

Previous Month

Total Listings On Market

510

498

Total Listings Listed as Foreclosed

66

68

New Listing Data

Item

Month of February

Previous Month

New Listings Total

104

90

New Listings Listed as Foreclosed

33

22

Average Asking Price Per Unit

$169,214

$175,140

Median Asking Price

$135,150

$134,900

Average Asking Price Per Square Foot

$102

$105

Units Re-Listed

15

18

Units Already Under Contract

13

10

New Listing House Data

Item

Month of February

Previous Month

Living Area Square Footage

1,649

1,665

Bedrooms

3.16

3.02

Bathrooms

2.1

2.06

Garage

1.9

1.73

Year Built

1996

1989

Price Range of New Listings in February

Item

Lowest

Highest

Listings

$27,900

$599,900

New listings popped back up over 100 for the shortest month of the year. That is never good news for an over-supplied market, but the silver lining is the continued downward movement of the initial price offer. That figure is down 20% from last February as you will see in a table later on in this report.

I did my own little calculation on supply of inventory based on the rate of new contracts (averaged over the last three months) and it appears that there is still at least nine months worth of inventory on the market. Still too high, but it was ten months less than at this point last year based on the same formula and calculations. I'll live with nine months worth of inventory over 19 months worth.

Getting better, but not solved.

Data tables for all new Units under contract tracked in the month of January 2008

As of March 1 Total Units Under Contract

Item

Total Units

Previous Month

Total Units Under Contract

106

88

Total Contracts Listed as Foreclosed

55

45

Units Under Contract Data

Item

Month of February

Previous Month

New Contracts Total

62

55

New Contracts Listed as Foreclosed

34

31

Average Marketing Price Per Unit

$137,313

$131,448

Median Marketing Price

$119,500

$104,950

Average Marketing Price Per Square Foot

$86

$83

Days on Market to Acquire a Contract

84

111

Average Marketing Price Reduction

$12,155

$17,134

New Units Under Contract House Data

Item

Month of February

Previous Month

Living Area Square Footage

1,586

1,589

Bedrooms

3.05

3.15

Bathrooms

2.1

2.1

Garage

1.9

1.76

Year Built

1998

1994

Price Range of New Pending Contracts in February

Item

Lowest

Highest

Listings

$44,900

$394,900

I say again, problem NOT solved, but some things jump out at me. It is at this price level that is bringing more activity from buyers. If you talk to just about any local real estate agent locally, I'm certain that most would say that the level of activity from buyers is up. So, if you are a seller, take a good look at the pricing here. If you can list at this level, you will likely get more traffic from buyers.

But keep in mind sellers that with the still excessive inventory, prices will likely get pushed further down until some balance returns to the market. The prices will likely overshoot to the low side before all is said and done.

I'm only guessing here, but long term out... these price levels look as if they will be the norm when the local housing market comes out of intensive care.

Year over year data listings/pending contracts

Listings

Item

UP/DOWN

unit/dollar amount

Percentage

Total Listings

DOWN

122

(19%)

New Listings in February

UP

10

10%

Average Price per New Listing

DOWN

$42,507

(20%)

Median List Price

DOWN

$29,850

(18%)

Pending Contracts

Item

UP/DOWN

unit/dollar amount

Percentage

Total Pending Contracts

UP

4

3.9%

New Contracts for February

UP

16

35%

Average Marketing Price per Unit

DOWN

$33,922

(22%)

Median Marketing Price

DOWN

$29,500

(20%)

If you look closely at the two tables above, you can still see that buyers are still getting more of what they want as compared to the sellers and their initial price offerings in terms of percentages. Sellers are better at keeping up with the pace, but still falling behind.

The average marketing price is down on new contracts 22% from last year... they are down 40% compared to February of 2006.

Conclusions:

I've been waiting for a month like this to report on for quite some time. Not simply for the numbers to improve year over year... they have been improving month over month. The last time a month went by that saw over 60 new contracts reported was May of 2006. Now 60 is not a magic number... and I have no idea as of yet what the magic number might be (other than more of the good, less of the bad).

If, if, I say IF the data continues to roll in such a manner into the next quarter the local market will be closer to finding balance. Prices will continue to slide though, but perhaps begin to slide at a slower rate. Will still depend on the banks and how they handle the foreclosures as they are proving to be the best sellers at this time.

Now please understand that I'm basing all of this on the local activity, nothing else. I don't have any idea as to how the federal, state, or even local government and the actions they are taking will affect the market in the future. For now, without intervention, the bottom of the market feels like it is in sight.

Bottom line for this report is that activity is up and has been in what is basically the slower part of the year. Activity is up because prices are at a level that is drawing more buyers. Will it continue?? Check back next month to find out. Look for the sales report on the 9th or 10th later this month. Happy March!!

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This blog and its content is no way affiliated with the Kingman/Golden Valley Association of REALTORS.The content, opinions, and other information expressed here are from the contributors to MOCO Real Estate News only.