ALEXANDRIA, VA.—CBS was not aware of it for three
weeks, but in late October it discovered “The Big Bang
Theory” had apparently finished the week of Oct. 1 as
the second-highest viewed show in the nation—edging
out “Sunday Night Football” on NBC. Even a year
ago—for both technical and social reasons—such a
scenario would have been highly unlikely.

Thanks to rapidly accelerating DVR deployment
by viewers this season, “Theory” managed to pull in
an additional 3 million viewers over the seven days
(what Nielsen refers to as “Live +7 Day”), following its
airdate and slide into the runner-up slot, behind only
“NCIS” (also CBS). Leslie Moonves, CBS’s chief executive, has called this year a “tipping point” for
broadcasting when it comes to changing
viewer habits and, specifically, time shifting
via DVR. According to Nielsen, nearly half of
all TV homes (46 percent) now have at least
one DVR.

Dish ‘Hopper’ Wins Round 1

ENGLEWOOD, COLO.—Dish Network began
marketing a new DVR service called “Hopper” last
spring, which can automatically delete commercials
from primetime content—a move which prompted Fox
and NBC Universal to take the satellite TV company
to court. On Nov. 7, a federal judge in California rejected
the networks’ bid for a preliminary injunction
to temporarily halt the use of the Hopper’s AutoHop
feature, prompting a planned appeal from Fox.

“We are gratified the court found the copies Dish makes for its AutoHop service constitute copyright
infringement and breach the parties’ contract,” Fox said. “[But] we are disappointed the court
erred in finding that Fox’s damages were not suitable for a preliminary injunction. We intend to
appeal...”

The device creating all the fuss is the satellite provider’s Hopper Whole-Home HD DVR, which
can zap commercial breaks automatically with one button (dubbed “AutoHop”). Dish has an estimated
14 million satellite subscribers and claims 45 percent of all network broadcast commercials
are fast-forwarded anyway.

Vivek Khemka, Dish’s vice president of Product Management, said “AutoHop does not ‘delete’
commercials. They’re still in the video stream and can still be watched—even if AutoHop is enabled—
by simply pressing ‘fast-forward’ or ‘rewind.’”

—John Merli

DVR BOOSTS ALL SHOWS
While +7 Day numbers don’t count in
Nielsen ratings to help determine advertising
rates (it’s based on Live +3 Day), a dramatic
jump in DVR usage in this still-early
TV season is giving a new lease on life to
some broadcast entries that under-perform
in overnight numbers. Yet growing DVR
time-shifting is also goosing the alreadyhigh
overnight ratings of some of the most
popular shows on television, notably “Modern
Family” (ABC) and “NCIS” (CBS).

“Fresh data from TiVo indicates every
one of the networks has averaged more
than 50 percent of viewing of their new
shows being time-shifted,” said Greg De-
Palma, vice president of Audience Insight
for DVR pioneer TiVo. “Leading the pack is
The CW with 74 percent. What’s happening
is the younger skewing the network,
the more time-shifting takes place, which
makes sense.”

As far as the conventional wisdom that
DVR viewers routinely zap through commercials,
NBCU’s Alan Wurtzel, president
of Research & Media Development, said
something “counter-intuitive” may be happening.
“People skipping commercials is
actually going down—and in fact, about 40-
to-45 percent [of DVR viewers] will watch
a commercial. It’s ‘work’ for some viewers
to avoid the commercials with [a remote],
and some people just don’t want to bother.
And some people actually like certain types
of commercials,” Wurtzel said. (Others also
have suggested viewers often forget they’re
watching a recording.)

DELETING LINEAR
While the actual growth in DVR sales
has slowed down, its usage has accelerated
among viewers and is having a tremendous
impact on traditional linear broadcasting,
according to Wurtzel. “This is having all
types of implications because for 50 years
it’s been customary for a network to take
a new program and put it behind a popular
show that’s a lead-in—like we did this
season with ‘Revolution’ [10 p.m. ET] on
Monday night coming right
after [ratings blockbuster]
‘The Voice.’

“But what’s interesting
is half of ‘Revolution’s’ final
rating is basically from
[DVR playback]. I’ve always
called the DVR a ‘frienemy’
because it can be disruptive.
But on the other hand,
a show like ‘Revolution’
is up against football [on
ESPN] and other popular
shows. So instead of making
only one choice, a second
show can get recorded,”
Wurtzel said.

For ad purposes, a program’s measured
audience only extends to Live + 3 Days, but
Charles Kennedy, ABC’s senior vice president
of Research, says “the true popularity
of our shows isn’t fully known until Nielsen
can report the Live +7 Day data, where we
see the overall ranking of our programs
change.”

DVR usage helped propel CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” to the secondhighest viewed show in the nation the week of Oct. 1.

David Cooperstein vice president/practice
leader at Forrester Research agrees. “I
do believe +7 Day may be required since it
allows all shows to get a weekend of [DVR]
viewing into their ratings, which will have
to be measured in the long run to gauge
true viewership,” he said.

Some new shows, like “Nashville” on ABC
and “Chicago Fire” on NBC—which compete
head to head—have so-so overnight
numbers but have grown their audiences as
much as 40 percent after Live +7 Day numbers
come in. “The bottom line,” said Kennedy,
“is more viewers are able to access ABC’s
content over a longer window...”

FRIDAY NIGHT THEORY
While networks are hesitant to give away
program strategies, some in the industry
think it’s not coincidental that some shows
which generally achieve low overnight ratings
like newcomer “Grimm” on NBC and
old timer “Fringe” on Fox both air on Friday
night—which puts the weekend in play for
advertiser-friendly Live +3 Day. Intentional
or not, it seems to be working: Both shows
have been known to add 35-40 percent to
their overnight numbers after weekend
DVR playbacks.

According to Will Somers, Fox’s senior
vice president for Audience Intelligence &
Research, “I can’t speak for our program
scheduling, yet Friday night is something to
be considered. But remember—there’s a lot
of DVR-ing going on throughout the week.
And we do look at the differences between
+3 Day and + 7 Day ratings on a regular basis
and the large majority of this time-shifting
is happening within that 3-day window.
But it’s incumbent upon the industry to [examine]
this on a regular basis,” Somers said.

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The FAA’s current rules and proposed ban on flight over people, requirement of visual line of sight and restriction on nighttime flying, effectively prohibit broadcasters from using UAS for newsgathering. ~ WMUR-TV General Manager Jeff Bartlett