Tuesday, April 26, 2016

It’s finally here!
The NFL Draft kicks off this Thursday.
A year ago the Bucs got it started by taking Jameis Winston to be the QB
of the offense and the face of the franchise.
Year one was a definite success, but Jameis has been working harder this
offseason to continue on the path of reaching his goal of becoming one of the
best. The Bucs also appear to have
scored with their next three picks. Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet are key pieces of
a rebuilt offensive line, and Kwon Alexander made free agent signing Bruce
Carter irrelevant. Kenny Bell is the
best of the rest, but he’s still an unknown after missing all of last
year.

They’d be extremely fortunate to go 4 for 4 again this
year. I want to see a fast receiver and
OL depth added, but the majority of their needs are on the defensive side of
the ball. They need a talent infusion at
every level of this defense. I expect
them to take two defensive linemen, two defensive backs, and at least one
linebacker. Do they have enough picks to
hit every need? Do you really expect Jason
Licht to not make a deal, especially now that he’s calling all the shots?

Here’s how I see (most of) the first round playing out as
well as what I would do with all of the Bucs 9, yes 9, draft picks.

1) LAR – Jared Goff (QB, Cal)

After conflicting initial reports, it looks like the Rams
will take the local-ish guy.

2) PHI (via CLE) – Carson Wentz (QB, N Dakota St)

I’ve been on the ‘Philly could take a QB’ wagon for a
while, and this trade just made too much sense.
They want a QB, and the Browns apparently didn’t.

3) SD – DeForest Buckner (DL, Oregon)

Why not Tunsil?
No, King Dunlap isn’t Walter Jones, but the Chargers are already three
deep at tackle with he, Barksdale, and Hairston. Franklin can also play the position too if
needed. I think Ramsey is more likely
than Tunsil. Buckner fills their largest
hole and is best available in the eyes of some.

4) DAL – Jalen Ramsey (DB, FSU)

Jerry Jones giddily giddys up to the podium and takes my
#1 player in the draft. Huge upgrade
over bust Claiborne at corner. I’d have
a tough time trying to guess what they do between Bosa and Elliott if Ramsey is
gone.

5) JAX – Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)

Search John Thornton on Twitter. His knee looks good to me. Why not Tunsil? The Jags already have Kelvin Beachum and Luke
Joeckel fighting for that spot. How many
more games do they win by taking Tunsil instead of a defensive player?

6) BAL – Laremy Tunsil (T, Ole Miss)

Maybe somebody trades up to 5 to get him, but I don’t
think BAL budges if he makes it to them.
Eugene Monroe is looking for work before Tunsil hugs Goodell.

7) SF – Joey Bosa (DL, Ohio State)

With Tanka Carradine moving to a stand up rusher role,
bodies are needed up front. Bosa slides
into a 5-technique role, one formerly filled by Justin Smith, a player to whom
Bosa has drawn comparisons.

8) CLE (via PHI) – Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)

There’s really no wrong pick for this team. They need help absolutely everywhere. Here they take the draft’s best back and the
best public relations pick. A tackle
wouldn’t be a surprise, and them taking one would give more credence to my
proposition below.

9) TEN (via TB) – Ronnie Stanley (T, Notre Dame)

It’s an easy trade to project and one that might actually
have legs with talk that the Titans do want to move
back up, their supposed interest in a tackle, the increasing buzz of 3 tackles
going in the top 10, and the relationship between Licht and Robinson. What would be awesome but unlikely is if
Paxton Lynch goes in the top 8 and both Elliott and at least one of the tackles
are still there at 9. CHI, MIA, TEN, and
DET could all be interested trade partners if that were the case. I don’t believe the Bucs will be able to get
one of the Titans R2 picks though unless a bidding war develops. If they can (say pick #45) then that’s a heck
of a move by Licht. I think they settle
for the fair price of the 64th (R3) and 140th (R5)
picks. And no, there’s not a player on
the board right now who would prevent me from making this trade.

10) NYG – Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State)

After taking LT Flowers last year, they lock down RT with
Conklin. This potential pick is a reason
I think the Titans (or someone else) will try to get into the bottom of the top
10. The top 3 tackles are going to go
quickly.

11) CHI – Jarran Reed (DL, Alabama)

Here’s my first real surprise of the draft. Reed joins last year’s R2 pick Eddie Goldman
as cornerstones for a rebuilt defensive front.

12) NO – Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville)

The Saints biggest need up front is a defensive tackle
who can boost a sagging run defense and putrid pass rush. Enter Rankins.

13) MIA – William Jackson III (CB, Houston)

This might seem high for Jackson, but my premise is that
NFL front offices are higher on Jackson than draft pundits. He’s my favorite DB not named Ramsey.

14) OAK – Chris Jones (DL, Mississippi State)

I loved this pick when McShay or Kiper did it on their
live special. Their biggest need is
along the defensive line, specifically at the end position. Jones could end up being the best interior
lineman of this class.

15) TB (via TEN)

If I had to stay at 9, I would take Rankins. After him it’s Jackson or Conklin. I’m sure a lot of people will disagree with
that, but there’s not another player (Lawson, Hargreaves, Apple) who better
fills a need in my opinion. Lawson isn’t
someone to partner with Smith at RE, and I don’t like Hargreaves or Apple
enough. The pick gets tougher for me
here at 15, but I like having the extra selections acquired in the trade.

Spence, Lawson, Ogbah, and Dodd are the best remaining
pass rushers, and Spence is the only one who I believe fits what the Bucs truly
need. Has he screwed up? Obviously.
Is he still a concern? Couldn’t
tell you. Since I haven’t and won’t
speak to the young man, I choose to believe what I’m not reading. I’m not reading about him getting into any
more trouble. I’m not reading anyone go on
record speaking against him. I’ll assume
he’s not toxic until told otherwise.

What about the interior guys? There’s a group of seven players I could see
the Bucs focusing on –

Jarran Reed

Chris Jones

Robert Nkemdiche

Kenny Clark

Vernon Butler

Andrew Billings

Jonathan Bullard

Let’s eliminate some of them.

Reed and Jones are already off the board, I won’t spend a
lot of time discussing them here. I
think Reed might be the safest DL pick in the entire draft, and I’ve already
mentioned Jones as a potential top producer.

I absolutely do not want them to draft Nkemdiche. I’m going to count on an underperforming, jumping
15 feet out of windows, biggest risk of the draft 21 year old?? Not a chance.

Part of me worries that Clark isn’t wide enough to play
at a high level as a 3-4 end, but he’ll be a fine 1-technique as a run
stuffer. How much better is he going to
get as a pass rusher, and how many other options are there with higher ceilings
and as much or less uncertainty?

I’m not sure you can go wrong with any of the remaining three.

Billings is the strongest guy in this draft and is a
plug-and-play NT in both three and four man fronts. I think he can be
contributor on passing downs, but while his floor appears to be high, how high
is the ceiling? What I like most about
Butler is his agility for a guy that’s 320 lbs.
He engulfs ball carriers with his big body and huge wingspan. Billings is more of a “blow you up” kind of
hitter, which is probably why he suffered more broken tackles than Butler.

I see Jones and Bullard both as bull rushers with plus
quickness, best off as 3-techniques with the ability to be 5-techniques. While I think Bullard can be a 5-technique,
I’m initially more confident in Jones in that regard due to his body type. Jones is also more likely to run over a
blocker than Bullard and less likely to be handled 1-on-1. But Bullard was a stud against the run and
shows you plenty of penetration potential.

So what does any of this mean, other than that I had a hard
time establishing a favorite? If I’m
trying to find the highest ceiling while making sure the floor isn’t too low
and the player best fits what the team needs, this pick comes down to –

Noah Spence

Andrew Billings

Vernon Butler

Jonathan Bullard

What to do with Spence?
I think 15-30 is more his range than the top half of the round, and
that’s only if he’s had a clean screening.
He’s not a 3 down player at the moment but would pair well with Smith at
RE.

Billings makes McCoy’s life a lot easier. He’s only 21 years old and is already a
dominant presence without much of a clue as to the finer points of the position.

Butler is a personal favorite. He might not be the physical brute that
Billings is, but his gifts are tempting.
Smith, Hayes, and Spicer could develop a special player.

Bullard is the best remaining combination of penetration
and run defense. The path isn’t clear at
the moment, but he does have three-down ability.

My first cut comes down to risk/reward. Spence is the riskiest pick, and that’s not
even counting character. Then it comes
down to impact and path to playing time.
The Bucs must improve their penetration and pocket collapsing. All three would make an impact there, but
what about the path to playing time? Butler
and Billings check that column, and I see higher potential in the former than
the latter. It’s not a simple decision
or a popular outcome, but it’s how I see things.

15) TB (via TEN) – Vernon Butler (DL, Louisiana Tech)

Butler is massive.
He measured in at the Combine at 6’4”, 323 lbs, with 35 1/8 arms. He has great movement for that size and
displays an impressive combination of power and finesse. When the rest of his technique is right
(footwork, pad level, leverage, etc), he sheds well with his hands and uses his
enormous length to get extension from blockers.
Butler has the tools, but he’s very raw.
He must learn to play with better leverage and the desired pad level
more consistently. He’s reportedly a
really good person and a dedicated individual which tends to indicate that the
kid is coachable. Butler uses a nice
bull rush, but a guy with his strength needs to be more violent with his hands
and arms as a pass rusher. I see a
player who can start right away next to McCoy and be the first step to
improving an anemic pass rush, both directly and indirectly.

Here are my top 15 players for the Bucs –

1.Jalen Ramsey (DB, FSU)

2.Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)

3.Laremy Tunsil (T, Ole Miss)

4.DeForest Buckner (DL, Oregon)

5.Ronnie Stanley (T, Notre Dame)

6.Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville)

7.Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)

8.William Jackson III (CB, Houston)

9.Jack Conklin (T, Michigan St)

10.Vernon Butler (DL, Louisiana Tech)

11.Jarran Reed (DL, Alabama)

12.Chris Jones (DL, Mississippi St)

13.Andrew Billings (DL, Baylor)

14.Jonathan Bullard (DL, Florida)

15.Noah Spence (DE, E Kentucky)

Assuming his knee isn’t wrecked, I don’t have a problem
taking Myles Jack. Smith would find a
way to get a special talent on the field for as many snaps as possible. I think Jackson will be the second best
corner in this class, and I’ve warmed to the thought of Conklin playing RT
opposite Smith. The difference between
10 and 14 is not that great.