Contentious Campaign Makes Way for Possible Election Confusion

Georgia's contentious parliamentary election campaign is winding down. As officials continue to grapple with questions about the accuracy of voter lists, the country is bracing for what could be a confusing election day.

Georgia's Central Election Commission (CEC) has struggled for most of October to rectify discrepancies in computerized voter lists that had been prepared for the November 2 vote. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The CEC was forced to repeatedly postpone its deadline for address the voter-list issue. Each delay stoked concern that the problem would mar the election, raising the specter of large numbers of citizens being improperly disenfranchised.

In an attempt to soothe mounting worries, the CEC, with the consent of political parties, opted to scrap the computerized lists and revert to old lists used in previous elections. Any corrections to those lists would be made by hand on election day, officials announced. While the solution appeared to be the best available to the CEC, it significantly increases the chances for election-day chaos, some political analysts say.

Despite the controversy surrounding the computerized voter lists, CEC Chairwoman Nana Devdariani has assured that preliminary results from the election will be promptly posted on the commission's web site.

Some opposition activists have pointed to the voter-list controversy as evidence that President Eduard Shevardnadze and his allies in parliament are striving to rig the election. Shevardnadze has promised a fair vote, while cautioning that authorities will act forcefully to counter any attempt at fomenting post-election unrest. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

So far, the source of the voter-list discrepancies has not been pinpointed. Georgia's Interior Ministry, which was charged with drawing up the voter lists, has come under fire, but Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili has vigorously denied any wrongdoing.

In an attempt to bolster security, officials have put units of the Georgian armed forces, along with Interior Ministry troops, on a heightened state of alert. Opposition leaders have denounced the move, renewing charges that the government intends to rig the vote and then use troops to clamp down afterwards.

At stake in the election are 225 parliamentary seats. Of those, 150 will be allocated under a party-list system with all parties receiving 7 percent of the vote or more being entitled to representation. At the same time, 75 seats will be determined by first-past-the-post contests.

Provided the election is relatively free and fair, political observers say no one party is expected to dominate the election and thus be in position to create a parliamentary majority on its own. Various polls have indicated that as many as seven political parties may receive enough support to gain parliamentary representation. Among the opposition parties that stand to win seats are the National Movement, Burjanadze-Democrats, Labor and New Rights. The Ajarian regional party, the Union for Georgia's Democratic Revival, also appears set to clear the 7 percent hurdle, as is the pro-presidential For a New Georgia bloc. In addition, the Ertoba bloc, headed by former Communist Party boss Jumber Patiashvili, could win seats. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Such a wide-open field appears to ensure that Georgia's next parliamentary majority will emerge only after a complicated coalition-building process.

Opposition leaders have expressed confidence that they can take control of parliament. "The opposition ?in particular the Burjanadze-Democrats, the National Movement and New Rights ?all have a chance to win elections with serious results and form a majority," the Prime News agency quoted Zurab Zhvania, a leader of the moderate Burjanadze-Democrats, as saying.

If Zhvania's scenario comes to pass, it would mark the beginning of a political transition in Georgia from Shevardnadze to a new generation of political leaders. The 75-year-old Shevardnadze has said repeatedly that he does not intend to run for reelection in 2005."After the parliamentary elections, President Shevardnadze's government will become a thing of the past," Prime News quoted incumbent Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze as saying. [For background on Burjanadze see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Despite lackluster poll numbers, leaders of the For a New Georgia bloc are not ready to concede control of parliament. Some presidential allies have said that For a New Georgia could end up with anywhere from 70 to 118 seats in the next parliament. Such a result would leave the pro-presidential bloc well-positioned in the coalition-building process.