Daily Brief

Trade does the talking

USD: Two factors contributed to the dollar's loss of a third of a cent each to the GBP and EUR. First, US producer prices fell in August for the first time in 18 months. It was only the smallest of declines - just 0.1% - and investors seldom pay attention to producer prices. But they paid attention yesterday and did not like what they saw. Second, the administration let it be known that senior officials were paving the way for renewed trade talks with China. The news encouraged investors to move out of the dollar and back into emerging market currencies.

EUR: The only economic statistics to emerge from the euro zone were for industrial production in July. They were not good numbers, with monthly output falling by 0.8%, but there was minimal reaction: investors had already seen the major national components and were unconcerned. When the European Central Bank Governing Council meets today it is not expected to make any change to existing monetary policy. EUR was unchanged against GBP.

CAD: An earlier story that foreign minister Chrystia Freelend would resume NAFT discussions today was dropped overnight after she said there was more work to do before talks can restart. The CAD did receive some support, though, from the news about an apparent cease-fire in Trump's trade war with China. Although the AUD and NZD did better out of that development the CAD was still able to pick up a quarter of a US cent.

GBP: Although there were no real developments on the Brexit front, such words as were spoken were more emollient than incendiary. The EU's Jean-Claude Juncker reiterated the comment of his colleague, Michel Barnier, speaking of an agreement with Britain inside two months. And the Brexiteer wing of the ruling Conservative party declared itself content with prime minister Theresa May, lessening the chance of a destabilising leadership challenge. GBP trod water, adding a third of a US cent and remaining unchanged against EUR.

JPY: The US administration's apparent desire to restart trade negotiations with China further reduced the demand for safe-haven currencies. The JPY faded alongside the USD. It received no help from data released overnight, which showed strong monthly and annual increases in orders for Japanese machine tools.

TRY: Having fallen by 40% since the beginning of the year the Turkish lira will discover this morning what the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is prepared to do to help it. Analysts expect the central bank's 17.75% lending rate to be increased dramatically, perhaps by as much as seven percentage points. In the absence of decisive action by the CBRT the lira would be likely to suffer another relapse.

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