In which skating disciplines can the US get 3 spots for 2013

1. Ice Dance - should happen barring any out of the ordinary acts of G-d! D/W will get at least Silver and S/S have improved from the GP season and will in a worst - case scenario finish around 6th

2. Men - 50/50. Abbott and Rippon are probably the best bet the US could ever muster. Abbott's renewal and beautiful skating make him a legitimate medal threat. But, Abbott would have to medal and Rippon would need a top 10 finish. Doable, but not certain. The men are just so deep in talent this quadrennium!

3. Ladies - 50/50. Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men, but Czisny and Wagner didn't quite bring it the way Abbott and Rippon did at Nats. With Miki and Yu Na out, the way should be clearer but Czisny's hiccups during the season and Wagner still needing a touch more refinement and reputation make it questionable. Alissa could skate par for the course and get around 4th behind Mao, Carolina and Akiko. Then Ashley could get 9th. They probably can do it, but who knows ... predicting ladiezzzz drives me nuts!

4. Pairs - Probably not. Depth as in the Men's field means D/C and M/B won't do it. M/B needs more exposure as it is.

Ladiez - "Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men" really? We haven't had 3 ladies' spots in several years. I think it's very doable, but it's been a hard row to hoe for our ladies for quite a while.

Pairs - god love'em. (I do hope that MBMB are able to get some decent international experience from this)

Ladiez - "Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men" really? We haven't had 3 ladies' spots in several years. I think it's very doable, but it's been a hard row to hoe for our ladies for quite a while.

Click to expand...

Just curious. Why do you think it's 'extremely likely' the US will get 3 spots back for the Men?

Re ladies, the field is not that deep this year: Yu Na, Lepisto and Miki are out, the Russian babies are not age eligible, the Sr. Russian ladies didn't really do that well at Euros and they are leaving home some of their better talent (Biryukova, Shelepen). Kanako is really up and down, Kiira is also not skating all that hot. It just seems that on paper, Alissa and Ashley should be able to do it. But, my post is cautious due to the freakish events of the past 2 World championships

Men- Good chance, but both Abbott and Rippon are unpredictable. Abbott has to shoot for a medal which he is capable of but wont attain without skating very well. Rippon can shoot for a top 7 or so. If one or both underperform though, it wont happen.

Ladies- Average chance. Czisny like Abbott is capable of medaling, but seems less likely than him to rise to that occasion right now. Wagner's chances are about as iffy as Rippon I would say.

The problem with predicting Men and Ladies is that in the first case, the US team is stronger but so is the field. In the latter, the US team is weaker and so is the field. I'm not sure, but I think kind of levels the playing field. That is, the chances of securing 3 slots next year are about the same for both Men and Ladies.

I think the men and ladies are totally in the hands of the U.S skaters though in that if all 4 do what they are capable of, I cant imagine them not getting 3 spots back. If only 1 of 2 in each do, then it is dicey.

I still can't believe how Mirai and Rachael blew it in 2010. Between the two of them they had only 7 combined after the SP and only had to skate decently in the LP to get 13 or less to get those 3 spots back. It really was inexcusable.

I think dance should be a given barring injuries, etc...I don't know about men- but not pairs or ladies.

Re ladies, the field is not that deep this year: Yu Na, Lepisto and Miki are out, the Russian babies are not age eligible, the Sr. Russian ladies didn't really do that well at Euros and they are leaving home some of their better talent (Biryukova, Shelepen). Kanako is really up and down, Kiira is also not skating all that hot.

Click to expand...

But Czisny hasn't been skating well either. That's a MAJOR problem for us because Wagner is probably ~6th at best, and if she has an off-night she could easily be 10th or lower. Czisny OTOH can contend for a medal if she hits.

I still can't believe how Mirai and Rachael blew it in 2010. Between the two of them they had only 7 combined after the SP and only had to skate decently in the LP to get 13 or less to get those 3 spots back. It really was inexcusable.

Click to expand...

I know. And there was tibiagate last year. Sometimes one gets the feeling it's just not meant to be.

Rachael was never going to skate well enough to give the U.S 3 spots back last year. Sending her to Worlds over Nagasu was a huge mistake, and I say that even seeing how Nagasu has flamed out this season.

^ I think healthy Flatt could have managed 8th. Still, the past is in the past and the present is how Czisny and Wagner are going to do. At least let's see how the latter does at 4CCs...then we might have a better idea.

I think the men and ladies are totally in the hands of the U.S skaters though in that if all 4 do what they are capable of, I cant imagine them not getting 3 spots back. If only 1 of 2 in each do, then it is dicey.

Click to expand...

It will be tough to get 3 spots in pairs, given the quality of the competition.

Ice dance and men have a very good chance of getting 3 spots, barring a meltdown or an injury.

If Ashley and Alissa can skate the way they are capable of, we could have a US lady on the podium and the other with a top 10 finish. It may still be borderline, but the ladies could get 3 spots for next year.

It will be tough to get 3 spots in pairs, given the quality of the competition.

Ice dance and men have a very good chance of getting 3 spots, barring a meltdown or an injury.

If Ashley and Alissa can skate the way they are capable of, we could have a US lady on the podium and the other with a top 10 finish. It may still be borderline, but the ladies could get 3 spots for next year.

Click to expand...

The pairs are definitely not strong enough to regain 3 spots IMO. Voloszhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy, Kavaguti & Smirnov, both Chinese pairs (whichever 2 end up going), Duhamel & Radford, Barazova & Larionov, and Takahashi Tran, should all finish above both U.S teams. If one was being generous that would leave a probable placing of 9th and 10th, a total of 19, far away from 13. They would need between them 6 placings by either above teams I mentioned, in addition to over anyone else I didnt, to get 13. Not a snowballs chance this year atleast, barring some pre event injury withdrawals.

Men - Maybe a 50-60 percent chance. Adam's triple axel still isn't that reliable and his quad is virtually nonexistent, so if he goes for it at Worlds he's liable to cough up a lot of points. And Jeremy is no sure thing either. Love him but even if he's "on" he's rarely mistake-free, and it'll be a dogfight. These two give us our best shot, though, I think.

Ladies - I give it a 40 percent chance, but hopefully the break from competing will give Alissa a chance to regroup, and hopefully Ashley will gain rep and confidence from 4CCs.

Pairs - Completely outside their reach, but that's ok. I hope M&B in particular have a really strong showing!!!

Ladies: 75% yes ...With Ando and Kim out, the field is pretty wide open. Suzuki, Kostner and Asada have to be considered the three medal favorites, but aside from them, no one really stands out. I can see Czisny, Korobeynikova and Wagner rounding out the top 6, with Murakami and Leonova also having good chances.

Men: 50% yes ...Rippon hasn't broken 220 points internationally yet this season. We'll see how he does at 4CC, but I see him in the 8-12 range at Worlds. That puts an awful lot of pressure on Jeremy to be 5th at worst. Not impossible by any means, but with Chan, Takahashi, Fernandez, Gachinski, Hanyu and Kozuka in the mix, it will be tough.

Pairs: 0% ... On the "bright" side, I think both D/C and MBMB can be top 10. Here's hoping diva Mary Beth and Rockne and nab a 6-8th place spot!

I want to say that the Ladies have a 25 percent chance of getting the spot, but hey, maybe if we set our sights low, the opposite will happen. It seems like the last few years we always said, "THIS year is the year!" and someone had a meltdown. So maybe the secret is for us to give up hope, and then the pressure is off and we can have a pleasant surprise!

I want to say that the Ladies have a 25 percent chance of getting the spot, but hey, maybe if we set our sights low, the opposite will happen. It seems like the last few years we always said, "THIS year is the year!" and someone had a meltdown. So maybe the secret is for us to give up hope, and then the pressure is off and we can have a pleasant surprise!

Click to expand...

Ek-freaking-xactly man!!

That's why I've basically given up...all but lost hope...I mean, this year is as good a chance we're gonna get with several major players not a factor, but...Czisny has not been skating well and Wagner isn't really competitive with the world's best as of now.