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Gold prices started the week trading higher amid New Year optimism in global markets. It was a volatile week for the precious metal yet prices were still above $1,600 per ounce as the week came to a close. Analysts remain optimistic over Gold’s performance in the coming year, with many expecting demand for the precious metal to see a boost in response to any quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and/or European Central Bank. Analysts from Merrill Lynch said this week that they “believe the high cost structure of the global Gold sector should provide support” to the price of the metal. They expect the price of Gold to average $1,850 an ounce in the coming year. Even Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter changed his view on Gold, becoming “officially bullish” again. He wrote, “The bear run that began in August has now officially ended.”

Geopolitical tension strengthens Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. This was apparent during the past 13 months, with the start of the Arab Spring that spread to Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and others. Now, there are many other situations at play. The ongoing conflict with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, combined the news that Iran produced its first nuclear rod this week, brought about some safe haven buying of Gold. As the U.S. continued to hit Iran with sanctions, the Middle-East country threatened the United States Navy with military action if a departing U.S. aircraft carrier returns. Iranian army chief Salehi said, “I advise, recommend, and warn [the U.S.] over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once.” Meanwhile, the financial sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union (EU) started to affect Iran negatively by cutting off the ability of Iran to collect payment for oil exports. The European Union came to a preliminary agreement with the U.S. to ban imports of Iranian oil. However, many countries in the EU are dependent on the oil imports. Paul Stevens, economist and emeritus professor at Dundee University in Scotland told CNBC, “”Greece’s economy is already mired in deep recession and could feasibly collapse entirely if the sanctions were imposed. But the impact that would have on countries like Italy and Greece would be enormous, and the Greeks are not going to slit their own throats for the sake of an EU sanction when Iran is the only country willing to offer them oil on favorable terms. It would utterly destroy the Greek economy.”

With the European Central Bank (ECB) continuing to lend money at a very low 1% interest rate to European banks, the opinion is divided over whether that cash flow is actually helping Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, or if the money is just being hoarded by banks. Of issue is a lack of trust in lending between banks, and that lack of trust has the ECB fearing a potential credit crunch within the eurozone, which would be detrimental to the hopes of climbing out of the debt crisis. Renewed concerns about European economic issues caused the euro to plunge to its lowest point in 16 months on Thursday, resulting in a corresponding downturn of global stocks and commodities. Against the U.S. dollar, the European currency dropped below $1.28 today, a level not seen since September 2010. Explaining the euro drop, Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist with Brown Brothers Harriman, said, “I think the market’s primarily concerned about the rollover (of debt) risk from the sovereigns as well as the banks’ capital. You also had weaker European economic data.” Chandler said these concerns, although not new, have flared in response to efforts by Unicredit, Italy’s largest bank, to attract investors by offering a 43% discount on new shares. According to Chandler, “People expect a downgrade any day. Next week, you have Spain and Italy coming to the bond market. Full liquidity hasn’t really returned to the market. The euro is falling against the dollar and also making new lows against sterling and the yen.” European Central Bank policymaker Athanasios Orphanides said that he thinks banks are paying too much for the economic collapse in Greece. He recently asked leaders in the eurozone to go back on plans which would make private sector investors – the banks – take a large share in reducing Greece’s debts. Orphanides said that although the Greek government might suffer, “by restoring trust in the eurozone, it would reduce the financing costs of other eurozone governments.” This idea is unlikely to gain much steam, however, as the main force in the eurozone now is Germany, the country that was very much behind the banks taking a haircut on Greek debt.

Germany sold 4.06 billion euros of government bonds this week, with a higher demand than previously recorded in November. Also this week, France sold 8 billion euro’s worth of higher-yield bonds, and the European Financial Stability Fund sold 3 billion euros in three-year bonds. This past December, Standard & Poor’s warned German and French governments of possible bond rating downgrades, and some economists have said that France might be the first to lose its AAA credit rating. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel plan to meet next week to review Europe’s new fiscal agreement before the EU summit planned for the end of this month. Europe seems to be heading towards a recession with the austerity measures in place, which has caused citizens to be more hesitant to spend money accompanied by an increased unemployment rate. Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics commented on the down fall of Europe by saying, “Things are really starting to slow down. There’s an underlying economic downturn going on at the same time as the peripheral debt crisis continues. Even the strongest parts of the euro-zone economy are beginning to falter. We see the euro zone beginning to break up, perhaps as soon as this year.”

A key U.S. manufacturing index for December was released that shows evidence of growth. The demand for automobiles and an increase in holiday sales has helped pave the pathway for a U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. housing market has been a concern since 2008. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications for U.S. home mortgages fell 4.1% in the last week of December, along with a 9.6% drop in purchase loan requests and 2.5% drop in refinancing requests. The housing market is an important facet of the U.S. economy and should reflect positive numbers to show a full economic recovery. U.S. stock futures rose on Friday after the nonfarm jobs report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. was released. Economists expected the number of jobs added in December to reach 150,000, and the report showed 200,000 jobs added. The value of the U.S. dollar also rose.

There were many factors driving uncertainty in the market in 2011. With a new year to tackle new problems, the eurozone crisis remains intact with no solution in sight. This ongoing crisis has driven borrowing costs to unsustainable levels and created concern for a banking crisis in Europe. In an outlook note on 2012, David Simmonds with the Royal Bank of Scotland wrote, “The eurozone crisis is life-threatening because there is too much debt, too little growth and huge intra-zone trade imbalances — belated resurrection of fiscal rules is no panacea. We are in a multiyear de-leveraging world with multiyear low-growth consequences, so mistrust most the quick-fix, free-liquidity addicts who seize on each emergency monetary policy response as a cure-all.”

One of the most famous and collectible American coins is the Morgan Silver Dollar, produced from 1878-1904 and in 1921. The 90% Silver coin was also popular for trading. The coin is labeled in reference to the celebrated design by George T. Morgan, a pupil of William Wyon of the Royal Mint in London. The coin’s obverse depicts a profile of Lady Liberty wearing a band on her head with the word “LIBERTY” inscribed. Her profile is surrounded by the words “E Pluribus Unum” and the date of mintage. The coin’s reverse features an eagle carrying an olive branch and arrows. Morgan’s initial, M, can be found both on the front and back of the coin, but this well-known design is easily distinguishable among other Silver Dollars.

The Morgan Dollar is also valued for its high-quality strike. For many collectors, the coin provides a fun, yet challenging collecting experience because of the many varieties and overdates available. Many have survived in relatively high grades considering their age and their use as a common currency. APMEX offers high quality certified Morgan Dollars ranging from MS-62 up to the rare MS-68 from PCGS and NGC grading services. APMEX Certified Morgan Dollars are excellent options for expanding your collection of American numismatic history. APMEX makes it easy to buy Silver Dollars by offering competitive Silver prices on all Silver products.

The price of Gold has been heavily affected by the euro zone crisis this week. In the words of one analyst, “The developments in Italy have perked up the dollar, and that is pushing Gold down.” The long-term outlook for Gold continues to be supported by consistent purchases of Gold by central banks. Although there has been a recent correction in the Gold price, the viewpoint is still positive for the asset. According to James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com, “Precious metals have been hit, as traders and investors continue to lock in profits and bolster cash positions in the run-up to year-end. But, it is worth remembering that despite the recent correction, Gold is still on course to post its 11th consecutive year-on-year gain. And that, given the ongoing debt problems facing many economies, record-low interest rates and the highs in Gold this year, those with a longer-term outlook could view current levels as a buying opportunity.”

Gold demand in China caused the Chinese central bank to step in and ban most Gold exchanges, with the exception of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The People’s Bank of China claims that illegal activity and lax management caused risks to emerge; the bank is now leading a team to clean up problems. Chinese citizens will still be able to buy the Gold they covet, however through limited means. Chinese officials and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda agreed to start directly trading their respective currencies with each other. This has been an ongoing issue between the United States and China, as China views the current currency landscape as too dependent on the U.S. dollar. The short-term effect is relatively limited to helping the current U.S. trade deficit with China; however, the long-term effect could be a devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

The situation in Syria escalated to a point where the Arab League finally intervened this week. The Arab League monitors tasked with observing the situation in Syria said that they saw “nothing frightening” in Homs, the city of 1 million people who has been the epicenter of protests. Some estimates have indicated that one-third of the 5,000 people killed in the Syrian crisis were killed in Homs. Many independent video reports have shown parts of that city that resemble a war zone. The Arab League’s worry has been that their monitors would not be allowed to search during their observation; this initial report only supported those fears. Despite continued observation by the monitors throughout the week, 10 people were reportedly killed Friday morning during protests. Activists hope to meet with the monitors soon to discuss the government crackdown on the protests.

The European Banking Authority set a June 2012 deadline for European banks to raise more than 114 billion euros in fresh capital in order to assure that European banks will have enough cash on hand after the price drop in European sovereign bonds. The Italian debt auction showed no promise after Italy’s announcement of an austerity package and the recent lending done by the European Central Bank (ECB). Spain also benefited as its six-month debt costs were halved to 2.4%. The ECB has flooded euro zone banks with almost 500 billion euros in the hope that it would be used toward sovereign debt. Last week, markets rallied on the news in the hope that banks would buy sovereign debt or loan money to other banks and businesses to stimulate the economy.

The euro, clearly dealing with a significant lack confidence, experienced a rapid and drastic drop this week, falling through an important price point of 1.30. The euro fell relative to the U.S. dollar; Gold and Silver followed their historical trend to move down as the dollar moved up. There are several opinions as to why the euro fell so rapidly. One opinion is that the European Central Bank (ECB) might still decide to roll the printing press. Another opinion is that the weaker euro has to do with the rapid expansion (10%) of the ECB balance sheet. European banks took the money loaned to them by the ECB. Instead of investing the money, they risked less by parking the money in the ECB overnight depository. A third opinion revolves around the Italian bond market, which has been very unstable lately. All three of these scenarios may very well be playing a part, but the increase in the ECB’s balance sheet is probably the current driving factor.

U.S. analysts expected that the struggling housing market was in recovery. However, data released this week indicated that U.S. single-family home prices dropped significantly in October. The focus in the U.S. has been on improving the housing market to strengthen the overall economy. The number of people contracting to buy existing homes in November went up 7.3%, higher than the 1.5% expectation. Currently, mortgage rates are at all-time lows, while housing prices continue to fall. This provides strong stimulation for increased demand. Most economists see an improved housing picture as essential for job growth and a recovering economy.

Weekly jobless claims in the U.S. rose more than expected but the unemployment claims amount remained below 400,000. Initial claims for jobless benefits went up 15,000 to 381,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted 375,000 claims. Although this did break the streak of three weeks of declining claims, most analyst expect a gradual positive trend to continue.

WEEKLY SPOT PRICES

Gold:Spot Gold prices opened this week at $1,595.20. The high was on Tuesday, Dec. 27th at $1609.20, while the low for the week occurred on Thursday, Dec. 15th at $1,523.90. Gold ended the week down $27.20 at $1,568.00. This week, the most popular Gold bullion products were Gold American Eagles, Pamp Suisse Gold Bars, and Gold Maple Leafs.

The Perth Mint in Australia released the third product in its 2012 Australian Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Program: the Australian Gold Kangaroo. Much like the previous products in this series, the Gold Kangaroos are issued as Australian legal tender guaranteed by the Commonwealth Government of Australia. The 2012 Australian Gold Kangaroos are offered in sizes of 1/10 oz, ¼ oz, ½ oz and 1 oz, as well as the larger 1 kilo size.

The Australian Gold Kangaroos have been offered by the Perth Mint since 1989, with each year featuring a different reverse design. The jeweler to Queen Elizabeth II, Dr. Stuart Devlin, created the 2012 design, which features a single kangaroo with a bush scene and windmill in the background. The kilo coin differs slightly, in that the image is instead a hopping Red Kangaroo. The mint mark “P” appears on the reverse of each coin, along with the inscriptions “Australian Kangaroo,” the date, the size of the coin, and the purity, “9999 Gold.” The obverse of each coin shows the Ian Rank-Broadley likeness of Queen Elizabeth II, as well as the coin’s monetary denomination, 100 Australian dollars.

The Perth Mint originally opened in 1899 as a branch of Britain’s Royal Mint to help supply Gold sovereigns and half sovereigns, which were used as everyday circulating coins throughout the British Empire. In 1970, control of the mint passed from Britain to the Western Australian Government, which still owns it today.

Gold prices have been affected by the ongoing European debt issues. The precious metal is tied closely to the fate of both the dollar and the euro. Moves by the two currencies this week have been reflected in the price of Gold. The recent trend for Gold has been to track the euro and move opposite the dollar. Although there has been a correction in Gold prices over the past few months, most experts are unfazed and see the precious metal rising again in 2012. Jeffery Wright, a senior research analyst with Global Hunter Securities, said that Gold prices of $2,000 are likely if Washington lawmakers continue to be at odds on how to address fiscal problems in the U.S. Wright also said, “Once we get back into those discussions, there will be further pressure on the U.S. dollar and a refocusing on Gold as a safe-haven asset.”

The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was at the forefront of the news. Il’s death only adds to the list of uncertainties affecting the world economy; there is concern about the effects his passing will have on North Korea’s economy and its relationship with South Korea. Stock markets slipped over comments made by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi regarding the ECB not being able to step in to buy bonds based on the founding treaty of the eurozone. Other news causing concern was England’s refusal to participate in an increase of the IMF’s resources to help the debt crisis. There are still plenty of hurdles and difficulties within the eurozone, including Finland’s resistance to how the European Stability Mechanism is run, which could cause issues as early as July 2012. Fitch Ratings stated that it is too late for a comprehensive solution to be reached in Europe’s debt crisis.

Each year around this time, we begin to see stock and Gold price predictions for the coming year. Last year, most of the predictions for stocks were bullish, and Gold predictions were more modest. But there was no way to predict the Arab Spring, the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan, the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, the continued lack of jobs or the severity of the European debt crisis. In the end, it has been a poor year for stocks and another robust year for Gold, despite the recent price decline. It makes one wonder what the unexpected (Black Swan) events might be in 2012. According to an article by Patti Domm, CNBC news editor, there are five geopolitical risks we need to watch for in 2012:

The conflict with Iran. Tensions already are escalating as Western countries seek to push sanctions on Iran for its nuclear weapons program.

North Korea. Who is this new 28-year-old leader? There is very little known about Kim Jong Un, who leads a secretive and closed country that possesses nuclear weapons.

Iraq’s civil war. The exit of U.S. forces leaves behind an unstable situation that creates even more uncertainty amid the world’s major oil supplies.

Deteriorating Pakistani-U.S. relationship. The U.S. relies on Pakistan to assist in the ongoing war on terrorism. However, the U.S. also needs India as an ally, which creates quite a balancing act.

Russian elections. There could be a shift of power in Russia, and this brings added uncertainty. Russia still carries economic clout and remains the world’s largest oil producer.

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Gold continued to shine in analysts’ eyes this week as eurozone leaders scrambled to find a solution to Europe’s ongoing debt crisis. Adrian Day, president of investment firm Adrian Day Asset Management, reflected this week on reasons why people have been buying Gold the past two years, citing “concern and distress of fiat currency paper money.” Day said, “Gold is a solid asset which is going up.” Central banks around the world came up with an agreement to aid financial markets, while China made the unusual move to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial lenders.

Earlier in the week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) denied that it was in talks to provide monetary aid to Italy; many analysts still expect that the IMF will have little choice but to act if the European economic crisis comes to a boiling point. There was speculation that Germany might float additional bonds together with the eurozone’s five other triple-A rated nations and then use the proceeds to help Italy and Spain, but Germany quickly denied this speculation. Finance ministers from the eurozone gathered this week at the headquarters of the European Union in an effort to rescue the euro and thereby protect the rest of the world’s economy from a debt-related financial collapse. Also, global central banks reached an agreement to lower dollar-swap ratios to “ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.” Alan Valdes, director of floor operations and vice president of trading at DME Securities, said, “The markets rallied with the news. But if you stop and think about it, you have to realize what kind of danger the world is in for all the central banks to get together and save Europe.”Some warned that this agreement could backfire and pose a risk to U.S. economic expansion.

Credit ratings were predominant in the news this week as reports came out that France could lose its AAA credit rating as the result of a downgrade by Standard & Poor’s (S&P). Fifteen major banking institutions (including six in the U.S.) had their credit ratings downgraded by S&P this week. S&P also upgraded two Chinese banks, based on the view that banks in North America and Europe find themselves in greater danger of turmoil in the financial market, while Asia-Pacific banks have experienced relative stability. Ritesh Maheshwari, S&P’s lead analytical manager of financial services ratings across the Asia-Pacific region, explained, “Money is flowing into emerging markets, so the health of their financial systems is continuously improving, whereas in the West, banks are battling with so many issues.”

For the first time in almost three years, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for its commercial lenders to ease credit strains and strengthen an economy that is showing signs of weakness. China’s manufacturing sector shrink in November, which helped to clearly define that country’s decision to encourage commercial lending to boost the economy. Stephen Green, the China economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong, said, “This is a big move — this is easing; it’s a clear signal that China is on a loosening mode. The next move will be another RRR cut in January.”

2011 1 oz. Pamp Suisse Gold Bar

Pamp Suisse Gold Bars have been produced in Switzerland since 1979 and are the most highly sought-after Gold investments in the world. Pamp Suisse, the world’s leading independent refiner of precious metals, controls more than half of the world market for Gold bullion ingots weighing less than 50 grams from its headquarters in Castel San Pietro, Switzerland. Each .9999 Fine Gold ingot is encased in tamper-evident “Signed Certicard” packaging with an assay card that guarantees the quality, weight and assayed precious metal content of each bar.

Most Pamp Suisse Gold bars are die-struck and bear the company’s famous “Lady Fortuna” design on the bar’s front. The design, widely regarded as one of the most attractive designs in the marketplace, is based on the Roman goddess of fortune accompanied by her traditional attributes: the rudder of fate and the cornucopia of plenty. The back of each bar is hallmarked with its purity, weight and serial number.

APMEX provides many opportunities to add this beautiful, world-class Gold investment to your precious metals portfolio. The bar selection ranges from 1 gram to 10 ounces. Best of all, APMEX customers now have a super opportunity to buy Pamp Suisse 1 oz. Gold bars at a great discounted price during the “12 Days of Christmas” promotion! Buy Gold Pamp Suisse bars for ONLY $39.99 over spot while supplies last. And there are no limits!

Add the 2011 1 oz. Silver American Eagle cointo your portfolio today. The American Eagle is .999 fine Silver. Adorned with an iconic design, it makes the perfect gift. Purchase any quantity for the same low price of $2.49 per coin over spot while supplies last. A U.S. Mint Authorized Purchaser, APMEX buys directly from the mint and has 1 oz. Silver American Eagles in stock and ready to ship today.

Benefits for Investors and Collectors

For investors, Silver American Eagles are IRA-approved and, because of their popularity, they’re highly liquid and can be sold easily if needed.

Plus, their size, weight and purity are guaranteed by the U.S. government.

The Silver Eagle program started in 1986 and these stunning coins have been minted each year since. The back features a bald eagle clutching arrows and an olive branch, along with 13 stars representing the original colonies. On the front, Lady Liberty is gracefully walking from right to left as the sun rises over the ridge in the background. She wears flowing robes draped in an American flag.

Only $2.49 per coin over spot!

The 1 oz. 2011 Silver American Eagle coin is .999 fine Silver. The most popular coin in the U.S. in stock and ready to ship today.

A Collector’s Delight! American Eagle Proofs

Our Complete Silver American Eagle Selection

Silver American Eaglescome Certified or Uncertified; Brilliant Uncirculated, Proof or Burnished; individually or in sets, with different mint marks. Orders are limited to only 20 coins per customer per day.

APMEX wishes you a

Happy Thanksgiving!

Markets posted significant losses this week because of the worsening European crisis, negative reports on the U.S. economy and Congress’ failure to agree on budget cuts. Gold dipped below $1700 on Monday but rebounded on Tuesday as investors chose Gold as their safe haven asset. Stocks have continued their run of losses; the S&P 500 posted a loss for the sixth straight trading day on Wednesday as the U.S. markets prepare to go on holiday for Thanksgiving.

The lack of an agreement among lawmakers in Washington raised the speculation that further downgrades to the U.S. credit rating could be coming, as well more large losses in equity markets. “Failure to reach agreement on at least the minimum required savings will reflect poorly on Congress and the S&P 500 could fall by 10 percent to 1,100 percent,” said David Kostin, an Goldman Sachs equity strategist. Kostin said,“The wide range of possible outcomes on both the super committee process and the unstable political economy in Europe drives our view that investors should assume the worst while hoping for the best.” Daniel Clifton, policy strategist with Strategas Research, stated, “We would expect further downgrades, a first downgrade from Moody’s and Fitch and possibly a second downgrade from S&P.”

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a less-than-projected rate of 2% from July to September. With the S&P 500 hitting its most prolonged slump in nearly four months, there is continued speculation that the Federal Reserve will provide another round of stimulus in response to this country’s sluggish economic growth. Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., messaged his clients about the possibility of QE3. He wrote, “The bottom line with the Fed at this point is when they embark on QE3, as the top people there seem to want it. Whether they couch it in future economic conditions or not, the result is still the same: printing money that they think will create a better environment for economic growth that they haven’t been able to achieve.”

1986 1 oz Silver Libertads

Buy this beautiful Silver Proof Mexican Libertad proof, box and CoA for the low price of only $8.49 per coin over the spot price! Each coin contains 1 full ounce of .999 fine Silver. This 1986 1 oz Silver Proof Mexican Libertad is contained in an original mint capsule and handsomely displayed in a decorative box with a numbered Certificate of Authenticity. The value in this offer is sure to please any collector.

On the obverse, the Mexican Libertad coin features Victoria, the winged goddess of victory in Roman religion. The design was inspired by “The Angel of Independence,” a famous gilded victory column erected in 1910 in a Mexico City roundabout to commemorate the centennial of the beginning of Mexico’s War of Independence. On this Silver proof coin, Victoria holds a laurel wreath and a broken chain, symbolizing freedom. Behind Victoria are the two iconic volcanoes Popocatepetl and Iztaccihuatl, which are steeped in Mexican lore. The legend of “Lover’s Peaks” recalls the Pre-Columbian tale of two lovers whose romance came to a tragic end. The attractive reverse of the Libertad displays the Seal of the United Mexican States, with a Mexican golden eagle perched on a cactus and clutching a snake with its beak and talons.

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Take advantage of APMEX Black Wednesday specials on Gold and Silver today, while supplies last. Look for the gift box icon, and find terrific gift ideas plus great opportunities to add to your own Gold and Silver collection. These exclusive specials end Tuesday, November 29 at 9:00 a.m. (ET) — Don’t miss out!

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We have reduced prices on hundreds of products throughout the site. Just look for this special animated stamp icon on select products. The APMEX Black Wednesday sales event ends Tuesday, November 29 at 9:00 a.m. (ET), or while supplies last. Act now, before the item you’re looking for sells out! This icon indicates that the product is part of the sale and its price has been reduced!

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A great value for collectors, these heavily circulated but undamaged Morgan or Peace Silver Dollars contain .7734 oz. of pure Silver, and date back to 1878-1935. Orders are limited to only 20 coins per customer per day.

Only $49.99 per coin! The hard-to-find Silver Elephant is part of the African Wildlife Coin Series. Minted in Germany, the Silver Elephant coin has a denomination of 100 shillings and is struck in .999 fine silver. Orders are limited to five coins per customer per day.