Tonight marks the official start of the 2012-2013 season, which will run through May of 2013. A handful of new shows have already premiered and some returning shows are already back on the air. But over the next few weeks the networks will unveil the bulk of their new and returning programming. And that means before long — perhaps as early as next week — the first cancellation will be announced. Last season NBC’s The Playboy Club had the dubious distinction of being pulled first, after three episodes were broadcast. During the 2010-2011 season the first cancellation was FOX’s Lonestar after just two episodes aired. And during the 2009-2010 season The Beautiful Life: TBL on The CW was the first cancellation, also after only two episodes. So what will be the first cancellation and first new obscurity this season? FOX’s The Mob Doctor drew terrible ratings for its premiere least week and it will no doubt do just as badly (and likely worse) tonight. That makes it the heavy favorite to be pulled. If it somehow manages to hang on for a few more weeks, what other shows could be the first to fall? Animal Practice on NBC? The Neighbors on ABC?

It’s interesting to note that none of the first shows to be cancelled over the last three seasons have been released on DVD, which I found puzzling given that at one point it seemed like the networks/studios were putting everything on DVD, regardless of how many episodes were produced (or left unaired after cancellation struck). The unaired episodes of The Beautiful Life: TBL were available on YouTube at one point but I don’t believe the unaired episodes of The Playboy Club or Lonestar were ever made available, which again I find surprising.

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I’m guessing that ‘The Mob Doctor’s better-than-expected encore Nielsen on Friday may prompt Fox to give it a few extra weeks to prove itself, and they may yet move the series originals to Friday night as well where it may do better.

Based on enthusiasm (or lack thereof) of critics, and my own survey of the sizzle reels made available for all the series via the fall preview specials, I think the first series to get yanked will be ‘Made in Jersey’ on CBS.

The other series that I suspect may not last long is ABC’s ‘Nashville’, especially if it comes in a poor third in the Wednesday at 10 pm timeslot and loses a lot of the ‘Suburgatory’ lead-in, which I think will happen.

Based on the first week of Nielsens, it looks like the candidates for early cancellation are:

ABC:
no early cancels based on first week numbers

CBS:

‘Partners’ -> opened with a 4.2HH/6%, 2.40 A18-49, 6,560,000 P2+, losing a hefty chunk of ‘How I Met Your Mother’s lead-in; CBS will look for this series to improve soon or ‘Rules of Engagement’ may be brought in with weeks to pinch-hit.

‘Hawaii Five-O’ -> opened with a 5.3HH/9%, 1.80 A18-49, 8,060,000 P2+, coming in third in demo, losing 1.3 A18-49 from ‘Mike & Molly’; CBS has a full season order, so it may try to save ‘H5-O’ by moving it to another night…Fridays to replace ‘Made in Jersey’?

‘Made in Jersey’ -> opened on Friday with a terrible 1.1 A18-49, and a subpar for CBS 7,744,000 P2+; may get pulled or re-slotted by CBS as soon as tomorrow.

CW:
no fall preems yet

FOX:
‘The Mob Doctor’ -> averaging 2.8HH/4%, 1.40 A18-49, 4,480,000 P2+ after 2 broadcasts, with one good Friday encore as well; FOX might try to save this series by moving it to Friday at 8 pm.

‘Ben & Kate’ -> opened this past week wtih a 2.5HH/4%, 2.10 A18-49, 4,210,000 P2+; terrible retention of ‘New Girl’ lead-in, but FOX may be patient and hope this series shows better retention out of ‘Raising Hope’.

‘cfb on FOX’ -> after 4 broadcasts, FOX’s newbie college football broadcast on Saturdays is getting pummeled by ABC, averaging 2.0HH/4%, 1.05 A18-49, 3,248,000 P2+, well below the ‘Cops’/’AMW’ reality combo it replaced. FOX is committed to air out the remainder of the season, but may announce soon that ‘cfb on FOX’ won’t be returning in 2013.

NBC:

‘Animal Practice’ -> sneak peeked out of the ‘Summer Olympics’: “Closing Ceremonies” with an outstanding 7.9HH/13%, 4.10 A18-49, 12,800,000 P2+, but opened to a rather tepid 3.4HH/6%, 1.40 A18-49, 5,188,000 P2+ in its regular Wednesday 8 pm timeslot. If NBC decides to save this series, they may switch it up with ‘Whitney’ and have it lead-off Fridays.

‘Guys with Kids’ -> sneak peeked out of ‘The Voice’ garnering an OK 3.9HH/7%, 2.20 A18-49, 6,250,000 P2+, and then opened weakly with a 3.1HH/5%, 1.60 A18-49, 4,839,000 P2+ in its regular Wednesday 8:30 pm timeslot.

It is hard to predict the first cancellation when there are programs that have yet premiered. Another problem is the lower numbers for returning series.

This fall season is showing how indifferent the audience has become to the major four network programming. CBS succeeds financially by programming for the people watching TV instead of aiming for the 18-49 audience that watches less and less network TV.

Sunday night is NBC’s NFL and everyone else tries to survive until football season ends. I don’t think we will see an early cancellation here.

Monday night is influenced by cable ESPN football to NBC’s benefit. REVOLUTION is a surprise success. CBS has problems here with their sitcoms and HAWAII FIVE-0. I suspect we will see some schedule changes with TWO AND A HALF MEN returning to Monday and one of these sitcoms moving to Thursday. Fox’s MOB DOCTOR would be gone if they had anything else that could survive here (TOUCH or THE FOLLOWING would just die here too).

Tuesday biggest problem is the Fox comedies as it is CBS’s night with scripted TV and NBC and ABC doing ok. But Fox needs to find a comedy hit so it will probably be patient until Thanksgiving.

Wednesday its NBC’s turn to have problems with sitcoms. It is apparent the success of sitcoms last season has not carried over to this season. I bet it will be a sitcom to get the first death sentence.

Thursday is CBS’s. ABC has a problem with LAST RESORT which is in the wrong time slot and wrong network (imagine this on Fox Friday or Monday). NBC is a complete disaster and waiting the end of 30 ROCK to start over here.

Friday is ABC’s reality programming. NBC is surviving. Only the average TV viewer watches CBS but those viewers are too old to count. Fox is a disaster equal to NBC’s Thursday. It is anyone’s guess what Fox will air on Friday in January besides Gordon Ramsey (TOUCH has all ready been held back to keep it off Friday).

Saturday the networks have turned to sports and reruns instead of programming for families that don’t go out on Saturday night.

So who will be first? How can you predict when the first victim, uhh CW has yet to air any of its new shows?

Don’t be shocked at cancelled shows not coming out on DVD. The format is dead as far as corporations are concerned. To them it’s throwing good money after bad to release a flop show, even on-demand. It’s all about streaming now. I haven’t checked, but you’ll most likely catch recently-cancelled shows and unaired eps on Hulu, Amazon, Netflix or the networks’ own sites.

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