Forecasting Astros 2011 rotation and the stars of 2012

The Astros had their seven-game win streak stopped Wednesday. They are now 3-1 in August with a three-game series starting in Milwaukee on Friday.

Since June 1: 30-26.

Since All Star Break: 11-7

Needed for .500 finish: 34-21.

Current pick in June 2011 draft: 9.

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Maybe it’s a tad early to start looking at 2011, but the Astros are already hedging their bets, at least where it concerns the starting rotation. With Jordan Lyles perhaps on the horizon, the Astros are obviously settling in on their starting five for the next few years.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, it’s apparent that Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ and Bud Norris will headline the starters…with Felipe Paulino, Wesley Wright and possibly Lyles set to battle it out for the last spot.

Assuming that Ed Wade upgrades the offense, can the Astros win with that rotation? Should the team run more than two left handers to the mound every five days?

At this point, there doesn’t appear to be any relief options for the rotation at Round Rock, leaving only Lyles as a possible addition from within the organization — at least for 2011.

Undoubtedly, the Astros — as most teams do — will bring some extra arms to camp either as a free agent or through the NRI route. (If you’re thinking former Phillies, there are a couple of free agents who could be available: Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood. Ed, just say no.)

Speaking of next year’s rotation, there’s a decent chance that a player who was not drafted by the Astros (e.g. Myers, Happ) will start opening day. That would be the first time a non-drafted player has started on the mound for Houston since 1995.

So that leads to two trivia questions. Without looking:

• Can you name the four pitchers — drafted by the Astros — who started opening day from 1996-2010?

Which of the players on those three rosters has the best chance of being a star for the Astros in 2012? If you’re looking for criteria to call a player a “star”, use the All Star Game selection as a barometer.

You’re not limited to these, but here are a few suggestions from each roster for your consideration:

I agree w/you regarding Wallace. His build reminds me of a young Rusty Staub. Like Rusty, he’s never going to be a great defensive player. Rusty struggled as both an outfielder and first baseman, but what a hitter he was. Wallace looks like he’ll hit a lot of line drives and perhaps 15-20 HRs per year. Potential for a .300 hitter. Key is patience. The Astros of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s had outstanding hitters like Staub, Morgan, Mayberry and unbelievably, Spec Richardson traded all of them away. I think Ed Wade has more sense regarding Wallace and the other youngsters recently acquired. It’s a rocky road ahead for 2011, but maybe .500 is realistic for 2012. Mills may be the best manager we’ve had since Art Howe, especially working with young players. I’d be surprised if either May or Feliz are back in 2011. Moeller may be finished with that latest injury. I don’t think he’d return anyway.

[What most people seem to be predicting for Wallace — at least in hitting — seems to a Mark Grace or maybe John Olerud type CB]

This may have been suggested before, but maybe we should try Paulino in the pen as a closer. Try to avoid the injury bug if he can throw strikes.

I’d like to see Banks get a legit shot in the rotation before he’s eligible for Social Security. Then there’s Lyles at the other end of the spectrum. Surely they’ll put him at AAA if they’re not going to commit to him starting in the rotation next year.

Need more consistency from Norris next year. He’s still 25, but we don’t need a team full of late bloomers like Wandy unless they’re all blooming at the same time.

Bud needs a dose of winter ball providing his arm isn`t hanging by a thread at seasons end. His goal shouldn`t be how many innings he can rack up on his arm. He could probably accomplish a few things working on the side on a daily basis with a proven mentor and maybe only pitching 4 or 5 innings a week and come home in a month. The Raw tools are there. I really think it would serve the organization well to put him in the right hands. I don`t know what kind of work ethic he has and how bad does he want it. I`d like to put him to the test and find out. Thanks Flash , Andrew, Sommersby and those of you that responded on Norris and Feliz. Good Night !

I’m not here to compare Norris to Maddux, Hughs or anyone else. I’ll say this one more time and then pack it in. To date, Norris has not put up numbers good enough to qualify him as a starter on the Astros next year. It’s that simple. If that changes, then great, but if he gets a slot in the rotation based on what he’s done so far, then we will continue to have a crappy team. We need to have more effective guys pitching for us if we want have a good club. I think we’ll pick up a starting pitcher over the winter and have a healthy competition in house for the 5th slot. What’s wrong with that?

Brentw, I too wish we would drop Feliz. But, I dont’ blame Mills for playing him. Everyone on a ML roster should be kept sharp with occassional pt. Every good manager does it (although the better your regulars, the more you are tempted not to). Especially in the NL where pinch hitting for pitchers means any given night a manager might need all of his position players. As disappointing as he has been, Feliz has a body of work that says he is an establilshed ML player. Not everyone can fall off a bench and go 4-4, or whatever.

H: your profound principle is fine, but must be tempered by a huge number of variables. You cite an obvious one: why burden the entire team (and fans) while a not-ready for prime time player works on adding a pitch or a change in mechanics, or adapts between relief and starter roles? I don’t disagree with Norris getting his work in the majors with this season lost and zero depth for our rotation. But, if he is not one of the best 5 options when we start next season (Myers, Happ, Wandy, maybe Paulino and someone new), he should work on reaching his ceiling in RR by improving his non-fastball pitch technique. Even very established pitchers sometimes benefit from working out issues in the minors.

There comes a time in every starting pitcher’s development where one more inning against any hitters that are not at the major league level (except for rehab assignments) provides ZERO development value.

In my opinion, Mr Norris is beyond that time.

If you want evidence, I can build a very strong case but I can do it with a single name – J Hirsh. Health is of course something and learning to expand the numbers of pitches he can throw are reasons to spend additional minor league time. TB has a wonderful example to follow this season into next – Hellickson. Early success can fool you since newness yields success (except for pure finesse pitchers sometimes), but if they are ready to answer the call, they are ready – getting more innings at AAA isn’t going to make them better starting pitchers in the bigs.

The four homegrown opening day pitchers from 1996 to 2010 are Shayne Reynolds, Scott Elarton, Wade Miller, and Roy Oswalt (in order, I did not look it up). I remember Elarton because I was at opening day 2001 (afternoon game, Enron gave out red caps with black bills that day).

No doubt, I’d rather be on the mound up five zip then trying to preserve a shutout. Ask Oswalt. I knew I’d take some grief with my Norris opinion, but all I’m saying is that he has regressed this year and I don’t think there is a good enough reason to pencil him into the rotation for 2011 at this point…..especially since our owner insists that we are not rebuilding.

Phil Hughes plays for a pretty good team. He is only now, in his fourth year, getting it together as a starter. Greg Maddux was worse than Norris in the same number of innings. Few pitchers arrive like Ozwalt did. Most struggle with ML hitters, control, lack of pitch development, etc.

Bud has the mental make up and the stuff to be a very good pitcher. His biggest problems are control and undeveloped secondary pitches. And yes, this is reflected in his stats, but both only require continued work.

Until the Astros have enough options to afford them the luxury of sending Bud to RR to refine his abilities he is in line behind Myers, Happ, and Wandy and ahead of Paulino, Wright, and Lyles.

I wish we would have shipped Feliz out or packaged him along in one of the deals. I would have taken a Foot long Subway in exchange. It really aggravates me to see him robbing valuable playing time from a youngster when he plays no role in the future here. Mills just can`t fight the urge playing him as long as he is in sight. A 4 for 4 performance with 4 RBI`s is not gonna change my attitude. Tell me what you think.

I`ve always admired the talent. I have commented in the past about how ( hard headed ) he is and maybe the correct term should have been his lack of a pitching aptitude. My bad if I sent the wrong message because I definitely like him and see an enormous amount of potential.

Also the rotation is not as barren as it may seem. We don’t have a bunch of proven vets but we have several young guns just aching to show their stuff{ Paulino, Norris, Trinidad, Lyles, plus there’s this kid at chorpus whose name I can’t remember.

Chip, i am actually optimistic about next year. CJ looks awesome, Wallace looks good and i bet when he gets a hold of one it won’t land. Happ had a hiccup, but some people are ready to wandy him and label him inconsistent, he pitched at a very high level all year and started very strong this year, i think he’ll be fine.

As for the Paulino vs Norris debate, I think Paulino has much better stuff and had put it together before he got hurt{health could derail him} where as Norris really hasn’t shown anything but potential.

Stats are for anyone that steps on the field. If Norris were pitching for a good ballclub, his stats would have him back in AAA. I’ll be the first guy to admit I was wrong if Norris becomes a legit starter, but everything he does on the mound today counts towards his future. Like I noted earlier, he has regressed from last year. He needs to be going in the other direction. His good fortune, and maybe ours too, is that he’ll get a chance to start every fifth day through the end of this season. But I’ve not seen enough at this point to give him a job in the rotation next year.

[daveb, if “Norris were pitching for a good ballclub”, would his stats be different? Not suggesting they would necessarily, but wondering your thoughts. CB]

I disagree with you about the Astros contending. While it is definitely not a year to go all in, I don’t think they are sitting there with 2 & 7 either. With a couple of smart FA signings (there you are Wadehaters) added to the current group, I can see them starting from .500 with the potential to improve on that.

The thing about having all of these young players is they don’t know they’re supposed to be underperforming.

The only thing I don’t like about your 2011 starting rotation is that you automatically include Norris. I saw your earlier comment about really liking Norris’ upside and I agree that he has a really good arm. I think he should have the inside track to a rotation spot but should have to show something in ST. He really needs to develop his changeup as it doesn’t lose enough speed and doesn’t move much.

I think Norris can be a back of the bullpen guy one way or another but I suppose I do agree in giving him another year to start. I also think that Paulino has definitely earned another opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He has pitched well the majority of the time this year but just needs to stay healthy. Wesley Wright as an alternative option or adding a guy coming off injury like Myers this past year would be good in making four guys compete for two spots and also provide some depth.

I would rather see Lyles start the season in RR no matter what he does in ST because 1) it will allow him to get his mechanics in tune for the year before the mental battle of facing big league hitters 2) most rookie pitchers fall off in the second half of their rookie years when they begin the season in the bigs so giving him a half season if another starter is needed at some point would be better to protect his arm as his innings and stress can be limited in RR and 3) he would avoid Super 2 status by waiting until June or July.

I’m also suprised that Drayton is planning on keeping the payroll the same next season. I wonder if that means keeping at the level it is this year minus Berkman and Oswalt without consideration for the money we are throwing in the deals. In other words, our current payroll plus Berkman and Oswalt’s salary pro-rated.

I saw an article a month or two ago that reported that the Astros had signed a 16 yo outfield prospect for over $2MM. There has been very little talk of this from people covering the Astros or fans. Did this deal end up going through because I thought it was huge news that Drayton ponied up that much money for a 16 yo prospect???? I imagine this kid would be on our top 10 prospect list immediately if we paid that much for him given the current status of our farm system….

[Todd, first, yes, I do like Norris. Other than that, since there’s a concensus the Astros will not contend in 2011 and, most importantly, there does not appear to be other available options, he does appear to be fairly locked in, at least at this point in time. Not nearly like Myers, Wandy, Happ, but certainly moreso than Wright, Paulino and even Lyles do for opening day. Could this change? Absolutely. CB]

Bud Norris employs an explosive fastball with devastating movement on his pitches. I`m patient with him because of the upside. He needs some daily instruction in winter ball and should be working on the following:

Locating his Fastball- usually comes with maturity as he realizes he can`t consistently overpower mlb hitters.

Throwing his slider for strikes and having the confidence to use it. Probably a mechanical flaw that he can iron out with some guidance.

Developing a third pitch ( Off Speed like a split finger or circle change up ). This is going to be the most difficult of the three but is an essential in a starters arsenal.

You can`t coach the natural abilty he has. With the right instruction and some diligent work we could have a dandy of a pitcher.

Stats are for established pitchers. For a young developing pitcher it is more about how he does what he does than what he does. Does he make good decissions? If so, does he make his pitch? How does he handle adversity?

A guy can pick the right pitch, miss badly, and then effectively deal with the subsequent adversity. The WHIP will rise, but that doesn’t tell even part of the story. Like most pitchers his age, Norris’ main issue is hitting his spots and improving his secondary pitches. When he is low and on the corners he looks as good as anyone.

Granted, if he can’t develop secondary pitches, he may be better suited to the pen, but most pitchers his age (and many considerable older) are working on those things.

Right now, Norris should be out there every fifth day, through the end of September. I do hope however, that we sign a legit starter over the winter (if in fact we are not rebuilding as our owner insists) and then give Norris, Lyles, Wright and whomever else a shot at the fifth spot come spring. I think Lyle’s will come out on top.

Separate issue….I was hoping to see Cuban win the Ranger bid last night. That would have given us a real shot at getting a Ryan group looking in this direction. At the same time, good for Nolan, as he has taken that team and built a winner in a short time frame. It would have been a big blow to lose it.

What has Norris done to keep a job in the rotation? He has regressed. Bad K/BB ratio, BA

against .281, 1.56 WHIP, a 5.65 ERA, 5.38 innings per start. Actually, it’s hard to find an encouraging stat for Bud. Yeah, he shows an occasional tease of taking the next step, but too many bad outings in between.

If DM is serious about NOT rebuilding, then we’ll need a new guy to take Paulino’s spot, and unless Lyles makes the big jump, which I think is quite possible, we’ll need another guy for the 5th spot, as I don’t think Wright is the answer either.

[daveb, he’s gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts and probably went a batter or two too long against SL on July 9 or that start would have “looked” better. I do think some things are trending better (e.g. 3-4 BBs/game in April, now it’s 1-3). That said, with FB it’s worth finding out what he’s got in a full six months of a lost season. And…what are our other options at this point? CB]

On a sidenote, Wallace also played the majority of his minor league career at 3B versus 1B. His fielding stats look poor, but still look better than Johnsons. Not sure if he was moved because of another prospect, lack of range, or injury, just throwing it out there.

Bagwell/Wallace comparisons are poor at best. Bagwell had 7 homeruns in roughly 790 Plate appearances. Wallace clearly has more power coming out of the minors. Bagwell though was a on base machine, maintaining a dominating BB/K ratio, quite the opposite of Wallace. They are clearly two different players. Wallace will probably not be a Jeff Bagwell.

Doesn’t mean he won’t be good. Just means he won’t be Bagwell, but neither are 99% of all players that ever play this game. I suspect Wallace will fit very well in the middle of the order and be alot like a Adam LaRoche type, decent power, streaky hitter, who finishes the season around 20-25 HR and 80-90 RBI. As good as you can expect. Should help him stay serviceable and affordable.

If we have our first round pick protected then I would like to see us go after 2B Orlando Hudson if his option is not picked up by the Twins. For the right price let’s go after SP Brandon Webb. I know he has a hurt shoulder, but maybe we can offer him an incentive type of deal. Lets dump Carlos Lee to a team that will eat most of his salary, at this point I do not care what our return in prospects are, Just swallow the pill Drayton and lets move on.

Good point on Paulino’s tendinitis – maybe he would not be a good candidate for getting in 2 or 3 days in a row. Or maybe he would not get tendinitis if he only pitches in short bursts?

I hope they can find a place for him and he can stay well – because he has an electric arm.

If Ovando is all that (but still just 16?) how soon could they move him up? A-Rod sniffed the majors as a 18-19 year old and exploded as a 20 year old. Griffey Jr. and Robin Yount are other 19 years olds I can remember. (Oh – and 10 years from now will we be hearing that Ovando was really 18, not 16 when signed – or is everyone getting better at confirming these things)?

The TBD candidates include: Van Hekken (LH), Wright (LH), Paulino (RH)(going to be a reliever I think, if the change up comes along and he could figure out a way to stay off the DL maybe he’s the #1 candidate – but the DL is what will prevent it), Perez (RH) – way down the list, Banks (RH) – would take Moehler’s spot either way, and Lyles (who’s likely to pitch at RR to start 2011, he’ll only be 20!).

Do you want a “Right Now” assessment of the roster movement for 2011? I think its a little early for that, but here’s one thing:

If Van Hekken gets a couple of starts with the big club in Sep and looks good, Wandy becomes available in the winter. Trading him for younger pitching is likely the move that would happen, the alternative is trading him for an SS with a good stick – which is amazingly difficult to find. Keeping Wandy is also a possibility, but if he finishes 2010 strong his value will never be greater (due to $, not performance). The ripple effect is that you’ll have Happ, Wright and Van Hekken as potential rotation candidates and none of them are CC or Price (LHP starting pitchers that can throw over 92 mph on a consistent basis) – which means its difficult to have 3 of them in your rotation. The one that does not make the rotation probably becomes the primary lefty out of the pen or the #1 insurance policy – which means starting in RR – Wright has one more option (I think) and Van Hekken still has all 3. Happ will be in Houston for certain. I think that EW et al will opt for the insurance policy with Trinidad maybe being a candidate for LH reliever (too many HR for me, I would have Wright coming out of the pen since he can throw 94 in a relief role.)

OK that was a long paragraph and the only thing it touched on was LH starting pitching for 2011 – not writing a book this morning – LOL. If Wandy stays, I think its VERY likely that Wright goes back to the bullpen with Byrdak being gone but you never know. Here’s another one – I expect Seaton to be a stuf next season in AA (heard it here first).

rick roberts, that roster looks pretty resonable, and I think they could win 87 games. I just don’t think the Mayan doomsday is going to fail.

But lets assume, just for a moment, that it does. It then becomes an exercise in trying to predict who will be unable to adjust to the adjustments. That’s a crapshoot. If you wanted to add a little insurance, you could go out and get a middle infielder with some pop and a pitcher in free agency. How about Ty Wiggington? He offers insurance at four positions. It was a pretty big mistake letting him go. I know his salary was escalating but he could have been here in place of both Kaz and Feliz.

I think with a little insurance in the form of a couple of stable veterans, this could be a good team.

I also think Chip you pretty much hit the rotation nail on the head. I wish we had moved Rodriguez and even Lindstrom before the deadline though. Even Lyons if it meant picking up a portion of the contract to get a decent return.

I think Paulino’s experiment should be over. I know I have been saying it for months but I will say it again: he is not capable of starting. His batting average against every pitch other then his fastball is above major league average, and he can’t stay healthy. He is a great possibility as a reliever that faces the lineup only once through, he can rely on that fastball and work out that second pitch. Maybe even close, but he is has to earn that part.

[Steven, for all the knocks on Lyons — and I do NOT like the 3-year deal either — he’s at least carried his weight. He’s had a few lapses, but all in all, he’s been durable and reasonably consistent. His contract has certainly not been the albatross that Matsui was. Moreover, he may be more marketable in the offseason, early 2011 when his contract is more manageable. CB]

I believe you must give Paulino a chance again next year if he can report to spring training healthy. Of all the pitchers mentioned in this post, IMHO, he has the best chance to be truly dominant, IF he can be healthy and IF he continues the upward progress he was showing.

in re: 2012 all star – I think Brett Wallace – a star but not All Star team member. (Too many established stars play 1B for a second year player to break through). As many have mentioned, comments about him are so similar to those about Bagwell when he first came to the major leagues, i.e. He will likely hit for high average but limited power. It seems to me that Wallace might show more power than he has thus far in the minor leagues, although I expect more power to alleys than 40 home run type. I could see him hitting outside pitches to the Crawford boxes, a la Berkman. My observations, for what they are worth, are a) quiet at plate, not a lot of wiggles or timing gimmicks which can get a bit off whack; b) extremely quick bat; c) Very powerful lower body which can translate to power in bat.

[By the way, Zachary Levine confirmed to me last week that Paulino is due back this year, just moved to the 60-day DL. That would put him eligible to return to the majors September 21, but he would obviously start a rehab prior to that. CB]

I’m buying Steven’s Koolaid on Paulino a bit – he is starting to remind me of Brad Lidge. Brad was a guy who had some awesome stuff coming up – but could not stay healthy as a SP. A closer can live off of a fastball and developing one other pitch.

Perhaps Paulini can develop that one other pitch and stay well enough to throw an inning when requested.

I know CJ is way too hot to sustain – but when you see him go down and golf an 0-2 pitch from one of the best pitchers in the majors over the centerfield fence – it cannot be just luck. There is some talent there.

Hey – having a 3B with a .280 average 20 HR’s and 90 RBI’s would suit me just fine – maybe he can do that.

[Dan, Lidge’s injuries — rotator cuff, broken fore arm — were different than Paulino’s, who suffers from things like tendinitis regularly. That’s not an injury that lends itself well in relief. But I grant you his “stuff” may be more well suited for the back end of the bull pen. CB]

I’m not sure who out all-star in 2012 will be. I do have an educated guess on how BA’s Top 10 Astros prospects in 2011 may look:

Lyles

Ovando

DeShields

Folty

Austin

Kvasnicka

Mier

Martinez

Shuck

Villar

Honorable Mentions: Bushue, Clemens, Peredes, Seaton

Now if anyone wants to question Bobby Heck/Ed Wade’s restocking of the farm system, look at BA’s Top 10 in 2010:

Castro

Mier

Lyles

Gervacio

Lo

Seaton

Bushue

Austin

Gaston

Steele

2011 looks light years better to me. The farm system should look even better in 2012 with another draft under our belts. Don’t forget about Ovando either. Scouting buzz on him says that if he were available in this years draft, he would have been a top-5 pick. Things are starting to look up!

I also think Chip you pretty much hit the rotation nail on the head. I wish we had moved Rodriguez and even Lindstrom before the deadline though. Even Lyons if it meant picking up a portion of the contract to get a decent return.

I think Paulino’s experiment should be over. I know I have been saying it for months but I will say it again: he is not capable of starting. His batting average against every pitch other then his fastball is above major league average, and he can’t stay healthy. He is a great possibility as a reliever that faces the lineup only once through, he can rely on that fastball and work out that second pitch. Maybe even close, but he is has to earn that part.

I left Lee off the list because my assumption by your article is you intended to ask what young players are most likely to grow into all stars, but given our poor development record and Houston not being a place that traditionally young players thrive my guess is that its more likely Lee loses 20 lbs and finds motivation than it is that any of our young players will become all stars. I also haven’t gotten through anything but the traditional stats on Wallace yet, so I can’t really say I have done a great evaluation job on him.

Chris Johnson has an incredible .413 BABIP right now, thats not maintainable, even by Ichiro. His BB% and K% are very consistent with his minor league numbers as is his contact rates. He is simply streaking. Every player in the majors is capable of it, thats why they get there. The good ones are the ones that can be consistent.

After Maysonet did it last year half this blog was calling for him to be anointed the 2B right now, or at least given a chance. If the Astros had given Maysonet the job and been comfortable with it they may not have went and gotten Keppinger. Where would we be? By the way, how is Edwin handling minor league pitching these days?

Johnson’s ISO is .210, far above anything else he has done in the minors(ISO is isolated power, derived from the difference between his AVG and SLG). No other major leaguer maintains that kind of BB/K ratio, BB%, K% and hits .300. Or maintains that BABIP. The underneath stats suggest he is just in a hot streak ala Maysonet circa 2009. The difference is Maysonet doesn’t belong in the majors while Chris Johnson is at the very least a good stopgap option/bench player and at best he could become a serviceable 3B for a fringe contender(though he is going to need to be more consistent). An allstar though? No.

[Steven, you can count me in the “give him a chance” regarding Maysonet last year. Was he bound to amount to nothing major league wise, probably? But was there a better option at the time, no. Of course, CJ can’t sustain the current numbers, but the good news is that he doesn’t have to sustain those numbers to be a productive 3B for Houston, at least for the foreseeable future. CB]

I can’t vision what will happen in 2012.But I’m really enjoying watching the young guys play.I think Wade has done a good job.The starting rotation anchored by Myers,and then Wandy,Norris,Happ,Wright, and perhaps Lyle or Paulino should be better.Lopez,Lyon and Lindstrom look good in the bullpen.Sanchez and Chris Johnson are the big reasons for improvement in the offense.(Sanchez is much better than Manzella).Wallace looks like a lefthanded Bagwell.Bourn will eventually hit better and Pence is our best player.I even forgot about Keppinger.I heard from a former Astro(still close to the club)in late May that the Astros would get rid of Berkman,move Lee to 1st and pursue Carl Crawford,but probably lose out to the Yankees.But hopefully his friends Bourn and Bourgeois can help recruit him.

If Paulino can stay off the DL (yes, I know it’s a question mark at the moment), I like his potential as a No. 1 or 2 starter. I am starting to have my doubts that Norris’ long term future is in the rotation. His repertoire and pitch counts make me think he will end up in the bullpen. I hope I’m wrong, since I would like to see him stick as a starter.

I think it would be a mistake to rush Lyles to the majors next year–he is too young and there is no need to take that kind of injury risk.

As shown by his abbreviated start last night, Happ is a question mark too. I think Happ’s ability will fall somewhere between No. 3 and No. 5 starter. Happ may need more than the usual amount of help from Arnsberg to reach his potential, though.

So, what we see for the remainder of this year may tell us whether the Astros will need to look at the free agent pitcher market to fill out the rotation next year.

I think there is an outside chance that Dallas Keuchel could make an impact on the starting rotation sometime next season. J.D. Martinez seems to have the best chance at star ability among position players in the upper minors. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a torrid start to next season and gets an early call up.

The starting rotation for next year is interesting – I get the feeling that Mills is not that comfortable having 3 similar type lefties in the rotation in Wandy, Happ and Wright. But I guess if these guys are all performing well down the stretch (hope Happ is somewhere closer to first start than second start) – they could all be there.

Would you give us an updated list of the top 10 or 25 prospects that we have after the trades and signings in South America? I’m curious to see how much that list has shifted over the past year since we have signed quite a few players.

Also who do you think will be bumped up to AAA next year? Will that roster change a lot?

[Lucas, here’s the pre-2010 list from Baseball America. You can add Wallace to the list, although he won’t be listed by BA next season since he’s projected to be in the majors. You can add some players from the 2010 Astros’ draft (Deshields, Foltynewicz, Kvasnicka et al). I think the pre-2011 BA list will be substantially different (Lyles could move to #1, where will Mier be on the list, if at all). Hope this helps. CB]

I know Shane Reynolds and Roy Oswalt…the other two, not so much. No idea on the second trivia question.

Stars of 2012: Wallace, Castro, Happ, CJ, Paulino.

Why these five? We all know about Wallace’s rep; Castro’s similarly young and has high expectations; Happ’s a solid lefty that has a high ceiling once he learns consistency; CJ can hit to all fields for average and power; Paulino is the fireballer we’ve been looking for, assuming he becomes more sturdy.

I skipped Lyles because I haven’t seen him. I’m sure that’ll change sooner than later.

I wonder if 2011 is too soon for Lyles, honestly. Strasberg just came up at 21 this season, and he’s already hit the DL once. I think if Lyles can avoid that type of situation he’d be better for it. But I don’t want to leave him down on the farm TOO long, either.