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02/19/2012

Amnesty for Illegal Immigrants? Posner

Two of the candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination—Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry (the latter later withdrew from contention)—advocated measures quickly denounced by other conservatives as forms of “amnesty” for illegal immigrants. Neither proposal was spelled out in any detail, and they are no longer receiving any attention at all.

The problem of illegal immigration to the United States remains unsolved. There are some 11 million illegal immigrants, mostly Mexicans, in the United States. The number stabilized for a time after the economic crisis that began in 2008 reduced job opportunities in the U.S., but as the economy improves and violence in Mexico increases, we can expect the number to start growing again. It is neither feasible to deport any substantial fraction of the 11 million—we cannot at present (or in the foreseeable future) afford the necessary enforcement machinery, or the disruption of the economy that would be caused by withdrawing millions of productive workers (they would take a long time to replace)—nor possible to close the border with Mexico (because of the huge amount of lawful crossing of our border with that country) so that no (or very few) Mexicans can immigrate illegally. We are stuck with the 11 million, or something very close to that number. It is almost 4 percent of the population of the United States.

One can imagine measures, short of mass deportation (the official name for “deportation” is now “removal,” but I will continue using the older and more familiar term), that would both limit illegal immigration and speed voluntary departure. One would be to make it a crime to be an illegal immigrant. Although an illegal immigrant is a law violator, he is not (except in a few situations, mainly if he has been deported previously and then returned to the United States without authorization) a criminal. He is subject to being deported but not to being imprisoned and then deported. If it were a crime to be an illegal immigrant, this would operate as a significant deterrent, especially if, as in the case of most federal crimes, the punishment were severe. Another effective though costly measure would be to detain anyone found to be an illegal immigrant, pending his deportation. The current practice, unless the immigrant is a criminal, is to order him to depart, and if he doesn’t obey the order there is rarely effective follow up; if he keeps a low profile, he probably will never actually be forced to leave the country. Still another effective measure, though it might require a constitutional amendment, would be to deny U.S. citizenship to illegal immigrants’ children even though they had been born in this country. And still another measure would be to repeal the law that allows immigrants who have been ordered deported to apply for cancellation of the order on grounds of hardship to their family; this suggestion is related to the immediately preceding suggestion because the family may include U.S.-citizen children who will remain in the U.S. when the illegal immigrant is deported, thus breaking up the family.

I would not myself recommend measures such as these, because I do not think that the presence of millions of illegal immigrants is a problem serious enough to warrant enhanced enforcement measures, which would undoubtedly be costly. Illegal immigrants are not a net burden on the economy. They have some entitlements, notably to Medicaid, but far fewer than citizens and lawful permanent residents. They pay taxes, by and large. They are hard workers (Californians who want to criticize someone for working too hard say “he works like a Mexican”), productively employed, many in jobs that American citizens don’t want. It is true that there is a significant criminal element among illegal immigrants, mainly because Spanish speakers have a comparative advantage in the illegal drug trade, but the Administration is rightly focusing its enforcement efforts on them. It has not been shown that illegal immigrants are “taking” jobs from Americans, for many of the jobs they do, particularly in agriculture and domestic service, are unattractive to Americans. And of course illegal immigrants, like all residents, generate jobs by spending their income on consumer goods and services, thus creating demand for workers to provide those goods and services. When one considers the enforcement costs and disruptive economic consequences of deporting large numbers of illegal immigrants, the net benefits of such deportations, other than of criminals, seem negative.

The question then is whether, if we are and should continue (or maybe have no feasible alternative to continuing) to tolerate the presence of millions of illegal immigrants in our midst, some form of amnesty would create net benefits for the society. The simplest amnesty law would be a federal statute authorizing illegal immigrants who had been in this country for say five years before the statute was enacted (to avoid a flood of illegal immigrants drawn by anticipation of the statute’s enactment) to apply for lawful permanent residence, which is the first step to obtaining citizenship. The application would be granted if the applicant had proved himself to be a productive member of American society who had developed substantial ties to this nation and was honest and did not have a criminal record, or if the applicant was a spouse, minor son, or daughter of such a person. The statute would sunset after one year.

This would be amnesty, and would encounter the usual objection to amnesty: it encourages violations of law, in this case in the form of illegal immigration by persons who anticipate a future amnesty. That expectation would reduce the expected cost of illegal immigration. But perhaps not by much. The last, and as far as I know also the first, amnesty for illegal immigrants was the Immigration and Control Reform Act (also known as the Simpson-Mazzoli Act, after its sponsors), enacted in 1986. That is more than a quarter of a century ago, and how many foreigners would decide to immigrate illegally to the United States in the hope that a quarter century later there would be another amnesty? Moreover, such slight effect in encouraging illegal immigration as an amnesty would create could probably be offset just by making illegal immigration a crime rather than, as I noted that it is at present, merely a civil offense with the only penalty deportation.

The biggest obstacles to amnesty for illegal immigrants are twofold. The first is political and is the recent surge of hostility toward them, which is puzzling but may be linked to the economic crisis that began in 2008 and is persisting, albeit lessening at last (almost three a half years after the crisis began with the financial collapse of September 2008). The government and the media have done a poor job of explaining the economics of the crisis to the average person, and as a result misconceptions abound, and one is that our economic woes are attributable to a significant extent to illegal immigrants who take jobs away from Americans and grow fat on “safety net” programs, thereby exacerbating the federal budget deficit.

The second obstacle is the perceived failure of the 1986 amnesty. The basic condition of eligibility was continuous residence in the United States since 1982. Some three million illegal immigrants were eligible, and about that number of illegal immigrants obtained amnesty—but apparently fraud in applications was rampant, so that many of the amnestied had been here for a shorter time or were otherwise ineligible. And just as I suggested above, the amnesty was coupled with measures to discourage further illegal immigration—and these failed utterly to stem the tide.

The prospects for a new amnesty are therefore bleak, though I believe we could learn from the failures of the 1986 law and design an amnesty program that would, if not solve, at least measurably alleviate, the problems created by illegal immigration.

The reason why there are so many job for illegal immigrants are because there are so many employers willing to break the laws. My husband works for a company that hires a lot of illegal immigrants. Basically this company offers very cheap wages, no breaks, and works illegal immigrants to the bone and on weekends without any extra pay. Of course, no normal American would be hired for this position because the employer is breaking the law. So there you go, that makes it not an option. I also would say that normal American wouldn't want to be paid and treated like. I have mixed feelings on illegal immigration. I know some people that have lived here since they were two and are now grown and are illegal. I feel there should be some circumstances that help protect someone like this and yet there should be laws not allowing a child born here from illegal immigrants just to become automatic citizens. I realize that some illegal immigrants will marry and have children with American Citizens. I also believe no illegal immigrant should have the option of becoming a legal immigrant by marrying an American citizen. That option should be wiped off the list. Instead, all people should have the same rights as everyone else. Everyone should be given opportunities to apply for citizen if they pay a certain amount of money, have a clean record and keep their record clean in a period of ten years. This would completely stop marriage fraud and people crossing the borders just to give birth in the USA in hopes of one day gaining a Greencard. Perhaps I sound heartless. Perhaps you could say that my forefathers came here as immigrants. I am an American (Cherokee) Indian so that doesn't fit my case. When I think about all the scenerios, yes many of your forefathers did come here as immigrants but most somehow became legal. This whole issue isn't referring to immigrants, it's referring to illegal immigrant that just come into the country without legal documentation and decide to make their lifes here illegally. I have worked for the hospital in my state and have watched many illegal immigrants give out fake names to get rid of their bill. In other instances, I have seen how illegal immigrants have been able to get government assistance such as food stamps and vision cards while still working a normal job. Yes, obviously taxes are being paid on the dead person's social security number that they use. So illegal immigrants pay their taxes, but what about all the illegal immigrants that get government assistance by using an alternative name? Something needs to be done. I am not against immigrants, I am against illegal immigrants. I am not against illegal immigrants having a chance to become legal since I think everyone should have that chance. Seeing all the illegal immigrants come into my husband's work using vision cards makes me curious to how this option would change their life if everyone had to be fingerprinted, where their social security card had to match their name and fingerprint for them to get a job or get any government benefits. Let's just make things fair for everyone. I know I sure can't hold a full time job and get benefits.

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They should prove that they pay taxes and not have any type of criminal record and be law abiding whose only crime was to be here illegaly. For everyone saying that they shouldn't get any type of legalization because they are horrible people that don't obey laws etc etc well what about the kids that had no choice and where brought here while they were young and are now stuck with all the knowledge and perfect english but can't get a job. I think those kids shouldn't be punished for their parents mistakes. I do think that making illegal immigration a crime and not giving their children born in the U.S automatic citizenship will stop them from coming.

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Wake up Americans! Your life as you know it will soon be gone! Welcome to the United States Of Mexico! Funny how Amnesty supporters cloud the issues every time. What is the definition of immigrant? It surely is not Leach!! Anyway, i say that from anger, because our country refuses to do anything about this. Why? Because they must have thier hands dirty!! What could possibly be more of a National Security Risk than a Nation next door to us that is ruled by Drug Cartels!!!! No wonder this INVASION continues. True, we are a Nation Of Immigrants, but the immigrant of yesteryears are the true immigrants! Not somebody that runs accross the border to be free. Immigrants from long ago built this country, NOT A BUNCH OF BORDER JUMPERS!!! Lets get that straight, because they were marching in the streets a few years back protesting with signs that said,"We built this country". LOL!!! The Immigrant of yesterday came from far accross the seas, and sacrificed everything to come here, with nothing!!! With NO guarantees. Ill bet the Statue Of Liberty would of really been a sight to see for these people. Im Irish, and i get sick in the stomach when i here this racism crap, and Amnesty Propaganda!!!!!!!!!!!! It is truely sick! What planet are these people on? People from all over the world would love to come to this country, and contribute to it, NOT SUCK IT DRY!!!! No we owe the Mexicans right? People from other countrys have to wait, and maybe oneday.... That is the way is is!!! SORRY ABOUT YOUR BAD LUCK!!!!! I own my own construction buisness, Roofing, Siding, etc. and trust me, these people are KILLING this country! For some years i hated them terribly. I watched these people systematically take over the construction trade, literally. But some years have gone by, and i have survived competeing with "ILLEGAL ALIENS", LOL, they hate those words!!! I have come to recognize that our country sits back and does nothing, while the drug cartels kill 12 people a day on our border, and even have the audacity to shoot accross and injure, or kill our border agents!!! THAT IS AN ACT OF WAR!!!!! FORGET ABOUT IRAQ, AND AFGHANISTAN, AND WORRY ABOUT THE FOLKS NEXT DOOR!!!!! THEY ARE BEING TERRORIZED, AND STARVED. AND LETS NOT FORGET CHAVEZ, AND HIS THUGS!!!!! All hispanic countrys hate americans, that is a fact. They have NO respect for our country!!! UNDERSTAND AMNESTY AGENDA PEOPLE, THAT IT IS NOT RACISM, WE HAVE LAWS, AND YOU AND YOURS ARE BREAKING THEM!!! WE ARE TIRED OF IT!!! The facts are the facts. And that is why they pull the race card, and all this other crap when they argue thier point!! THEY KNOW THE FACTS, THAT IS WHY THEY CONTINUE THIER PROPAGANDA!!! Lets not mention Arizonas situation. THEY ARE FED UP WITH IT!!! HOW DARE OUR GOVERNMENT STEP IN AND OVERTURN THE COURTS FINDINGS!!!!!!!!! Whoever was responsible for that ought to be hung in the town square!!!! And thats no lie!!!! Politicians, ever heard of TREASON? Look it up!! Thank God for people like Sherriff Arpiao in Texas. They want to punish him for doing his job as a true american, and the drug cartel even put a hit out on him, and one of the governors there!! What a joke man. THAT IS AN ACT OF WAR!!!! And also now they want to blame our gun laws for these murders, and vigilanteeism. It is not our fault that Mexico starves its people, and allows thugs to run the country. Thay say that they are worried about the guns that get to mexico from the USA! THEN CLOSE THE BORDERS STUPID PEOPLE!!!!!!!! DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!!! I have so many facts i could state in these paragraphs, but im not wasting my time anymore. WAKE UP AMERICANS AND UNDERSTAND THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY IF WE DO NOT STAND TOGETHER!!!!!

Open the freaking border. And let them come into the country legally, provide immigrants with a general visa to produce in this country. Soon the American population will be old and disappear and who the heck will inherit this land?. No one would take anything to the grave - so open the borders and let anyone to come into the US organized way- train them and put them to work. US land is a bit smaller than China and can absorb more people and we can get a better internal productivity- and compete worldwide. Some Americans stupidity and fearfulness should stop and give to the cuntry what we need: more people and more productivity.