Roy Hodgson must wrestle with a decision that could define his England reign.

He must decide whether to field the reliable, unspectacular and more defensive James Milner on the left against Ukraine in Kiev on Tuesday or gamble, going with a more attacking option out wide in the inconsistent Ashley Young.

All the indications from Hodgson, both in comment and in character, signal Milner starting in the absence of the suspended Danny Welbeck.

One caution leads to more caution.

Even before Welbeck’s unfortunate yellow for kicking the ball away, Hodgson had been contemplating starting with Milner, moving Welbeck up top and putting Rickie Lambert on the bench in Kiev.

Although Milner has not been starting for Manchester City, he is respected by Hodgson, who knows that the midfielder will not let him down against Ukraine. Milner will keep the shape and drop back to cover when Ashley Cole ventures upfield.

It is a conservative choice and Hodgson will be castigated if England lose.

He is playing the percentages, looking to the experienced Milner to stiffen England’s midfield, limiting the type of considerable threat from Ukraine seen in their ruthless 9-0 dissection of San Marino on Friday night.

Milner eventually came on, taking up a place on the left, suggesting he will continue there in a match that could effectively define who finishes top of Group H.

Poland’s draw with Montenegro on the same night allowed Hodgson’s side to go top on goal difference but Ukraine will be formidable opponents, exploiting any hesitancy from England.

Hodgson would probably take a draw now, then focus on winning the October home ties against Montenegro and then against Poland, who are likely to be out of contention by the time they visit.

Hodgson’s choice is limited. He has shown no inclination to call in Wilfried Zaha from the Under-21s or call up Gabby Agbonlahor. Andros Townsend has yet to be capped. Playing both full-backs, Cole and Leighton Baines, has never appealed to England managers.

Wayne Rooney is out. Daniel Sturridge reports to the Grove on Saturday and his thigh tweak will be assessed by England’s medics later in the day but the expectation is that he will head back to Melwood, not on to Kiev.

Lambert is required through the middle, deservedly so after another mature performance in his late-starting international career.

After the excellent Steven Gerrard began the scoring against Moldova, Lambert became the first player to score in his first two England games since Peter Taylor in 1976, before Welbeck pounced neatly either side of half-time. Leading 4-0 after 50 minutes, England really should have scored more.

Ten of England’s 25 goal attempts were on target compared to Moldova’s none from five attempts. England won the corner count 9-1. Ukraine are catching up on England’s goal advantage. Welbeck will be much missed in Kiev for his energy and his goal touch. It was here that Welbeck scored that agile winner against Sweden in the group stages of Euro 2012.

His booking was controversial. He was in the act of shooting when the Slovak referee, Ivan Kruzliak, blew his whistle after the offside flag had gone up. Kruzliak effectively ruled that Welbeck was kicking the ball away.

The striker could hardly blame the noise of the 61,607 crowd which was subdued for much of the first half. His United colleague, Robin van Persie, received his marching orders for Arsenal at Barcelona for even less of an offence in a far noisier venue.

Hodgson was furious at Kruzliak’s decision, venting his frustration at the fourth official. Adding to England’s anger was the belief that Welbeck was unlucky to have been booked for diving in Montenegro when they thought it was a penalty.

Such was England’s ire that Hodgson’s assistant, Gary Neville, reverting to stroppy old Red Nev, harangued Kruzliak as the officials walked off at the break. Hodgson was not taking any chances with Kruzliak and withdrew Cole, the other player at risk of suspension, at the break in place of Baines.

England led 3-0 by then. Cole’s persistence set the stage for England’s first. The Chelsea full-back determinedly won possession off Vitalie Bordian, then nudging the ball down the left to Welbeck.

He cut the ball back to Lampard, who worked it on to Gerrard. England’s captain finished in style. Head still and over the ball, Gerrard sent his right foot through the ball, imparting power and just a touch of fade to place it between Stanislav Namasco and the keeper’s right-hand upright.

Moldova were poor, falling further behind after 26 minutes. England’s sustained siege of the visitors’ goal paid off when Phil Jagielka played the ball right to Walcott, whose shot was palmed up by Namasco and the lurking Lambert headed in.

Lambert had dreamed of representing England, had never given up hope, even when working in a beetroot factory early in his career, even when entering his 30s. Now he has two goals in two internationals.

Welbeck was then cautioned, and he hardly celebrated when scoring on the cusp of half-time. Lambert was now playing the creator, guiding Welbeck through. He was too quick for Namasco and stroked the ball into the empty net. Five minutes after the re-start, Welbeck struck another good goal, again running on to a Lambert pass, this time lifting the ball over Namasco.

Hodgson then made another change, giving Ross Barkley his debut and resting Jack Wilshere for Kiev. Lambert, whose back-story, goals and work-rate have made him an instant favourite with the England fans, went off to a standing ovation when replaced by Milner.

The game was fizzling out, the focus seemingly only on whether Welbeck would get his hat-trick and to admire Barkley’s movement. Picked out by Gerrard’s magnificent drilled pass, Barkley sped through the middle, tricked his marker and placed a low shot just wide.