The Story of the 2009-10 Season Might Just be Happening in Atlanta

Last season the Atlanta Hawks finished with the 4th best record in the Eastern Conference. Such a mark gave this team home-court advantage in the first round. After barely defeating the Miami Heat, the Hawks then were swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.

In the off-season the Hawks made very few changes. Atlanta drafted guard Jeff Teague in the first round. And then the Hawks acquired veterans Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith. Last October I summarized these moves as follows: Hoping for a Plan in Atlanta.

Here is the essence of my argument. The Hawks last year had a 1.70 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). Such a mark is consistent with a team that wins 45 games (the team actually won 47 games). In the off-season the Hawks added three players who were not expected to produce many wins. Consequently, the Hawks were really just hoping that their existing players would suddenly get much better. Although I acknowledged improvement within was a possibility, I argued it would take a very dramatic change in the productivity of Atlanta’s players to close the gap between this team and the top contenders in the Eastern Conference. In sum, the Hawks plan appeared to be “We hope these guys get a lot better”. And as I noted last October, hope is not a plan.

Wrong and Right

Well, twelve games into the 2009-10 season and here is what we see from the Hawks.

Record: 10-2

Efficiency Differential: 8.46

Projected Record (given efficiency differential): 63-19

Wow, that’s quite a leap forward. So I guess I was wrrrrrr…… I mean, I might have been wrrrrr….. Okay, maybe there was a problem with what I said a few weeks ago.

To see where I was wrrrr….. (okay, I will stop doing that), let’s look at the players.

Combined, these three players – if this level of productivity continues – can expect to produce 2.8 wins by the time the season is over. So it looks like I was right about these guys. The additions are not really helping.

Now let’s look at the players the Hawks returned. Here is what the team’s top four producers of wins in 2008-09 are doing this year (after 12 games):

Al Horford: 0.201 WP48 [2008-09], 0.279 WP48 [2009-10]

Joe Johnson: 0.138 WP48 [2008-09], 0.172 WP48 [2009-10]

Mike Bibby: 0.136 WP48 [2008-09], 0.138 WP48 [2009-10]

Marvin Williams: 0.149 WP48 [2008-09], 0.058 WP48 [2009-10]

Yes, Horford and Johnson are doing more. But M. Williams is doing less. If we project to the end of the season (again, assuming per-minute performance stays the same), this quartet will produce 37.4 wins. Last season these four produced 32.2 wins. Again, that is more wins. But the size of the improvement we see in these players is not enough to explain what we are observing for the Hawks. In sum, if we look at the team’s acquisitions and the top producers of wins in 2008-09, it looks like I was right (didn’t have trouble saying that, did I?).

Josh Smith as Superman

But then there is Josh Smith. The Hawks selected Josh Smith with the 17th pick in the 2004 draft. Across the next five seasons, he posted the following numbers:

12,533 minutes played

35.9 Wins Produced

0.138 WP48

Last season, Smith produced 5.9 wins and posted a 0.116 WP48. Yes, Josh Smith was a bit above average. But he was not one of the most productive players employed by Atlanta. And what we have seen from Josh Smith had been remarkably consistent for five seasons (and more than 10,000 minutes of playing time).

Something, though, had happened to Josh Smith. And if this continues, this could be THE STORY of the 2009-10 season. Table One reports what Josh Smith had done across his career.

Prior to this season, Josh Smith’s career numbers indicate that he was slightly below average with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, and turnovers. He could, though, block shots, get steals, and get assists. So on average, he was a bit above average. But he was hardly outstanding.

Thus far in 2009-10, though, Josh Smith is one of the most productive players in the entire NBA. No, I don’t just mean on the Hawks. If Josh Smith was this productive in 2008-09, only Chris Paul and LeBron James would have produced more wins. That is how good Josh Smith is playing.

So what is he doing well? Well, his shooting efficiency had increased dramatically. But relative to last year, he is also getting more rebounds, blocked shots, steals, and assists. And he has reduced his turnovers. In sum, across the board Josh Smith is a much more productive player.

Converting all these numbers into wins we – if this production continues – Josh Smith will finish the 2009-10 season with 22.4 Wins Produced and a 0.387 WP48. Again, only Chris Paul and LeBron James did more last season.

To put Josh Smith’s production in perspective, let’s imagine that all the players on the Hawks keep doing what they are doing in 2009-10, but Josh Smith only produces at the level we saw in 2008-09. If that happens, the Hawks should expect to win 47.2 wins. Yes, without this amazing leap in Josh Smith’s production, the Hawks would be essentially the same.

So it appears that the Hawks did have a plan. The plan was for a five-year veteran who had never been much better than average to suddenly become one of the very best players in the game. In essence, the Hawks were hoping that Josh Smith could suddenly offer the same production the Orlando Magic get from Dwight Howard [22.2 Wins Produced and 0.378 WP48 in 2008-09].

Now had I know about this “plan” (i.e. Josh Smith is now going to be as productive as Dwight Howard), I would have definitely agreed that the Hawks were going to get better. But to be honest, I just didn’t see this coming.

And again, if this continues then this should be the story of the 2009-10 season. A slightly above average NBA veteran has suddenly become another Superman. I can’t remember seeing something like this happen in all the years of NBA data I have examined. So what we are seeing from Josh Smith is truly something special.

Josh Smith has vastly increased his value and productivity by simply putting himself in a better position, without having to dramatically improve any particular skill.

You’re seeing a lot of less of Josh Smith hanging out on the perimeter on offense. He’s always made over 60% of his interior looks for his career, and this year, they’re comprising 70% of his field goal attempts rather than merely 50%. Being in a better position on the floor also allows him to collect more rebounds (an improved attitude toward rebounding also really helps). He also spaces the floor better on the inside, as defenses are forced to respect him on the post but not on the perimeter, which allows him to collect more assists as well.

His ability to block shots is nothing new, nor is his ability to score inside, and he’s always had the athletic ability to be a good rebounder. He’s turning the ball over at a similar rate to last year, and he’s even well below his career FT%. His overall defense is upgraded, but in the past he’s been a shutdown defender for 4 or 5 game stretches, before he falls into bad habits and gets lazy. His effort has been consistent every game for 12 games.

Complacency may eventually reduce his effectiveness as he finds some of his old bad habits, but we’re getting a look at the player Josh Smith is capable of being. I think he’ll continue to be a top 20 NBA player all season.

A woeful 3-point shooter, Smith attempted his first of the season the other night; could this be the beginning of the regression to the middle of the pack? I hope not; it’s fun to watch players who are exciting AND efficient.

Jbrett, Josh Smith’s first three point attempt of the year is not a sign of regression. Jamal Crawford took the inbounds with about 5 seconds left in the first half, drove up past midcourt, then he stumbled and lost the ball. It ended up in Josh Smith’s hands at the 3 point line with 1 second left, so he made the attempt at the buzzer. Exactly the type of jump shot that is perfectly acceptable.

One thing to note… Josh Smith is only 23. Larry Bird was 23 as a rookie. Since Smith was drafted as a high-schooler, it could be that this was simply his natural progression. In business, nobody hires uber-talented young people until they have experience because there is a huge chasm between the potential risk and reward. Wisdom and experience can help people avoid disastrous mistakes and come closer to reaching their potential. His few years of experience was simply a substitute for college. If you equate his newfound maturity and understanding of the game to a second-year player out of college, his leap makes more sense.

That’s okay, really … because it’s precisely where something like my ‘Basketball Acumen’ actually comes in handy, well in advance of what other so-called experts have to say about the specifics involved with the game.

Understanding correctly how the NBA game actually works means being able to forecast in advance that a young player like Josh Smith is fully capable of becoming a DOMINANT power forward when the right circumstances finally begin to kick into place for him.

As I said in the summer …

There is no other young Power Forward in the NBA today who I would choose to take on my team other than Josh Smith.

The Atlanta Hawks are a good young team in the East this season that should be able to advance to the conference semi-finals with a legit shot at reaching the conference finals.

Hopefully they will contine to build their team gradually over the next few seasons.

Perhaps what needs to be re-evaluated, in this instance, is your ‘own’ definition of what “pimping” actually means … as opposed to simply providing others with a roadmap [and an arrow] which just happens to be cost-free. :-)

regardless of what youre trying to say, all i know is you comment on just about everyone of his posts and while they all complement him, they all make sure to let everybody know how smart you are on your blog. as one reader, i personally am just getting tired of it. obviously you can use the comments section however you would like, i am just letting you know my opinion

Credit Josh Smith [and his coach, Mike Woodson, if this trend continues under his watch] for the growth in his individual game and his improved awareness about what it takes for him … and, most importantly … and his team to succeed in a major way this season.

Who would have thought that tonight’s game between the Hawks and the Rockets might turn out to be more significant and more exciting than tonight’s game between the Celtics and the Magic? Not ESPN, obviously, which understandably chose to schedule the Celtics and the Magic. (And likely not the Hawks fans, either. We’ll see if they can half-fill the stadium on a Friday night.)

I’m really starting to want NBA League Pass. In the meantime, thank heavens for YouTube. I finally saw all the highlights from Brandon Jennings’ 55-point game.

By the way, Bill Simmons has now declared all-out war on sports statisticians:

If pulling his game in closer to the basket is the source of his epiphany, Josh Smith may still have some growth left. I read somewhere that his is still shooting 25% when he takes jumpers from beyond 10 feet from the basket. Reel it in big fella.

Chi-Town Tim! I agree with Simmons. I actually thought the decision to burn 2 time-outs and then (like Simmons said) completely undisguise the play was the biggest mistake. Also, if you want to talk about playing the odds, why not punt and play the odds of a team scoring 3 70+ yard scoring drives in the 4th quarter?

“One thing to note… Josh Smith is only 23. Larry Bird was 23 as a rookie. Since Smith was drafted as a high-schooler, it could be that this was simply his natural progression. In business, nobody hires uber-talented young people until they have experience because there is a huge chasm between the potential risk and reward. Wisdom and experience can help people avoid disastrous mistakes and come closer to reaching their potential. His few years of experience was simply a substitute for college. If you equate his newfound maturity and understanding of the game to a second-year player out of college, his leap makes more sense.”

DBerri, have you ever calculated the aging curve for Wins Produced or WP48? I think this might have helped you here…

I might add that from the research I have seen, more of the progression is a function of age than a function of years played. Most players peak at ~ age 27. Josh Smith should increase his WP48 until approximately that age, I would suppose. Could you post the aging curve(s) for us? Thanks!

Also, I’ve watched a few Hawks game (and I’m getting League Pass today, awesome) and I was wondering why this team isn’t better defensively? Smith, Horford, and Marvin is one of the best defensive frontcourts in basketball, plus they protect the rim. Joe Johnson isn’t great, but he’s s0lid, nevertheless. Bibby and Crawford are horrible, but don’t the pros outweigh the cons? Why are they just 15th (and they were just 12th a year ago?)

How are the Blazers outdefending them? Joel P and Oden are holding it down at center, but Blake, Aldridge, Outlaw aren’t good defenders. Roy is only solid, as is Miller. Anybody wanna take a stab at this?

My theory for Josh Smith’s improvement: imagine a near-empty locker room, Josh Smith is sitting at his locker when Jamal Crawford walks in, an angry scowl on his face.

JC: I see you took five threes today.
JS: Yeah, so? I do it all the time.
JC: But you only made one.
JS: That’s just my game, man.
JC: [grabbing Smith by the collar] Look here sonny, I got to where I am today by jacking up ill-advised threes. That’s who I am. I’ve even changed my name legally to Jamal Ill-Advised Three Crawford. There’s only room on this team for one ill-advised three-point shooter, and by God it’s going to be me.
JS: Chill out, man. I guess I’ll just try to get attention some other way. Blocking shots or something. Rebounding. We’ll work it out. I know bad threes are your thing.

Professor, do you have any data on player performance variability? It’d be interesting to see how common 12 game hot streaks are in general. Although in this case it sounds like Smith’s change is more due to his just limiting himself (or being limited) to fulfilling the traditional PF role.

It also sounds like the key to beating the Hawks is baiting Smith into taking jumpers of any kind.

Even if Smith regresses some, between him and Horford (who continues on a typical improvement curve) they have a monster front court.

Josh Smith had to recover from a high-ankle sprain last year. And quite probably he wasn’t 100% all of last year. He still took some 3s last year but you can see that his FG% started creeping up. You can probably go to nba hotspots and compare his shot selection over the last three years.

He’s only 24. It would be interesting to see if his increase in production is due more to offensive improvement, defensive improvement and/or both.

“why not punt and play the odds of a team scoring 3 70+ yard scoring drives in the 4th quarter?”

Since the Colts already had 2 scoring drives in the 4th quarter of 70+ yards, we have to “ignore” those results and just talk about the odds of them scoring on 1 70+ yard drive. What you’re proposing is no different than a gambler who bets on black because “red has come up 2 times in a row, and the odds are against red coming up 3 times in a row”

Also, horsecow is making more sense then he thinks. The Bibby, Crawford, Johnson, Smith, Horford line up is by far the most effective (+91) lineup the Hawks have. The removal of the creative scoring responsibilities from Josh Smith has done wonders for his numbers while continuing to sink Crawford’s. I’m not saying Crawford is a good player, rather that the addition of Crawford was good for Smith.

Ray, the only way to attack Belichick’s decision to go for it on fourth down is to throw the odds out the window. Everyone who actually calculates the odds agrees that they favored Belichick. You can argue unmeasurable intangibles if you like, which like all articles of faith are immune to logic. Or you can argue that Belichick made other mistakes in the game, which he did. But if you are arguing odds, there’s really no dispute that the odds favored going for it on fourth down. And to call the move dangerous, the dumbest move in recent sports history, a move that makes no sense, unforgivable, insane, and all the other invectives Simmons and others threw at it, just means that Simmons has declared war on statistics.

Yeah, the odds favored the move. I’m not disputing that. I said the biggest mistake was the waste of 2 time-outs and the play call. Empty backfield, 1 3/4 yard out to Kevin Faulk. Going for it was the best decision out of those three scenarios. Save your timeouts, run a more flexible play. The point is, I’m 1000 times less interested in this than I am what I asked about the Hawks/Blazers defense.

Yes of course you were right the addition of jamal Crawford has not helped Atlanta at all….and people actually by this crap. It looks like you are right except if you actually watch the games .

@ ray if you watch the games you would notice that the Hawks are playing at a much faster pace .They are now 4th in the league in scoring after being 19th last season. If you adjust for pace they are defending just as well as last season they just havent had as many close games last year either.

[jamal Crawford] is clearly ranked [too low] because [he makes Josh Smith better by taking his place as the designated sub 30% three point shooter]. [My eyeball] is way better than this.[..and people actually by this crap. It looks like you are right except if you actually watch the games.]

Yeah, I watch the games, and I looked at the numbers after Pace is adjusted. They are 15th in the league, which I thought was a little low considering the talented defenders they have. And the Blazers are 2nd but they only have 2 quality defenders (and they play the same position). Are the Blazers’ schemes that much better or have I been missing something when I watch (since I don’t have any metrics like WoW to help).

So glad to see that Josh Smith is learning from the Dwyane Wade School of “Don’t take threes if you can’t shoot ‘em.”

Wade’s never shot better than 32% from 3. He made 1 three every 5 games during the championship season, and only attempted 1 per game. But he used his athleticism near the basket to get good shots and free throws.

If Josh Smith can sty close to the basket, keep getting those offensive rebounds and easy assists, and bring up his free throw average 10% or so, he’s in for a heck of a season.

[...] The Story of the 2009-10 Season Might Just be Happening in Atlanta Last season the Atlanta Hawks finished with the 4th best record in the Eastern Conference. Such a mark gave this team [...] [...]

“I wonder what other players could dramatically improve, if they just stopped doing one thing that they’re clearly awful at and focused on those things that they’re good at?

// “A man’s got to know his limitations.”

I agree with this, too, after having watched Rasheed Wallace take 3 after 3 after 3 in Detroit over the past five years.

I feel the same way about Villanueva after just a few games. The kid’s clearly very talented — but that doesn’t always translate into results.

Take last night against Utah: he shoots 7-16, which includes a dreadful 1-6 for three. Take just three bad 3 point attempts away, and he’s 7-13, above 50%!!!

Or, maybe you don’t just take those attempts away; maybe you shot fake and attack the basket three times, and you only make one of them. Then suddenly, you’re 8-16, shooting exactly 50%, and maybe you get fouled one other time.

It seems to me that there are a lot of guys in the NBA who just never learned what a good shot was as they were learning the game, and they still suffer as a result.

In NY, we are seeing the same thing with Wilson Chandler. He’s probably an above average prospect from an athleticism point of view, but his shot selection is so dreadful he has been a very inefficient scorer so far.

All he would have to do is eliminate most the 3s and attack the basket just a little bit more and it would make a dramatic difference to his results. That goes double because he’s a very good free throw shooter.

In his case, he is just coming back from ankle surgery and may still be a step less explosive than he was last year. So we may have to give him a little more time. But lately we are already seeing that coach D’Antoni may be finally getting through to him.

In pre-season and the first few games in October he was launching 3s and shots from just inside the 3 point line (even worse shots) like crazy (just like last year). In November his 3 point shot count has fallen sharply and he’s had much better results.

I’m a fan court spacing. I think it’s always better if your SFs, PFs and even Cs have the CAPABIITY of hitting shots from the outside. That prevents defenders from sagging in clogging up the middle. However, since it’s usually better to shoot from inside you don’t want those guys feeling too comfortable about taking those shots unless they are either exceptional at it or wide open from a good spot on the floor for them. It seems to me that a lot of exceptional talents don’t quite find the balance.

“Any chance for a follow up post on potential future Josh Smith’s that simply identifies the high usage front court players who have low 2 and/or 3 point FG%’s?”

ilikeflowers,

That’s a great place to start, but I think you have to get more detailed than just looking at high usage players or high usage players that have a low 3 point% that drags down their overall efficiency.

IMO, it clearly takes a lot of skill to both get to and finish around the basket and get those high percentage shots. However, no team can get those shots all the time. In fact, IMO it gets more difficult to get them if the team doesn’t also have excellent outside shooters on the court to help space the floor.

That’s why I think very good outside shooters tend to be underrated statistically. If you shoot well enough from the outside to help space the floor, your own efficiency might not be as good as a player that scores more from the inside, but you are contributing to their efficiency with own your skill.

There’s a tough balance in there, but if you see a guy taking shots from “X” feet away and his efficiency is very low from there, then he’s clearly hurting the team.

We only track 2s and 3s in the box score, but not all 2s are even remotely alike. I am sure some teams track shot location for every player and try to adjust, but some obviously don’t.

IS, what you say is true, but for a simple blog post one has to work with what one has. Even lacking the desired granularity with 2 point shooting stats one can still identify the candidates who might need to either reduce their shots or change their shot selection.

[...] seems an appropriate time to talk about how great Smith has been this year… You can start with Dave Berri’s statistical stuff if you want, or you can just listen to me. Josh Smith is a different player now. We’ve all seen [...]

New Orleans winning 3 in a row without Chris Paul shouldn’t be thought of as that unusual when you consider that both Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison were players who I rated as solid pro prospects heading toward the 2009 NBA Draft.

Darius Songaila was a decent under-the-radar add this summer and the Okafor-for-Chandler deal was not nearly as bad as some NBA analysts had projected, from the Hornets’ perspective, at least, in the short term.

New Orleans was under-achieving early-on this season under Byron Scott, given the talent level of the players on their roster … which is not to suggest that they are capable of finishing in the Top 4 this year in the West but that they should at least be able to stay in the race for the 8th spot in the conference and not be dredging the depths with the likes of Minnesota.

I’m watching the Magic and Heat and Hubie was talking about what a great addition to the Hawks that Crawford is so I looked at his overall numbers. I’m getting an EstWP48 of 0.080 which is really good considering that he’s shooting sub 30% from 3. If he’d just stop shooting so many threes he’d be 0.250+.

[...] A few weeks after the 2009-10 season started, though, it was clear the Hawks “plan” had met with… Josh Smith – who has never posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] beyond 0.148 in five NBA seasons – was suddenly posted a mark beyond 0.200. Many thought this improvement was linked to Smith’s decision to stop launching three-pointers. More importantly, though, was Smith’s ability to grab more rebounds, get more steals and assists, and block more shots. In sum, Smith’s improvement can be traced to a number of statistics, and as a consequence, Smith produced 7.7 more wins than his 2008-09 performance would suggest he would offer last year. [...]

[...] shot at this but they at least they got awards this season. Smith has actually shown an ability to grow as a player and has played as a top power forward in the league. Despite this he gets no accolades. [...]