Gwynne Dyer commentary: West won’t go to war over Ukraine, will punish Putin

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Wednesday April 30, 2014 6:23 AM

With due apologies to God, Voltaire and the Ukrainians, I must point out that if Ukraine did not
exist, it would not be necessary to invent it. It is not a great power, it has no resources the
world cannot do without and it is not a “vital strategic interest” to anybody except the Ukrainians
themselves. Not even to the Russians, although they are acting at the moment as though it were.

Bosnia was nobody’s vital strategic interest, either. It isn’t now, and it wasn’t a hundred
years ago. But Bismarck warned in 1898 that if there was ever another major war in Europe, it would
come out of “some damned silly thing in the Balkans,” and an assassination in Sarajevo in 1914
fulfilled his prophecy to the letter.

Some things have changed since then, however. The next world war will not come out of Ukraine
(which is only slightly northeast of the Balkans) no matter what happens in the next few weeks and
months. Russia might invade Ukraine, there might even be a new Cold War for a while, but there will
be no fighting in Europe beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Indeed, apart from the Balkans, there has been no full-scale war in Europe for the past 69
years, and there was never the slightest risk that the fighting in the 1990s would spread beyond
the borders of the former Yugoslavia. Indeed, there probably was never a single day during the 45
years of the Cold War when either side seriously considered attacking the other.

The reason was simple: they knew what would happen next, even if neither side used the thousands
of nuclear weapons at its disposal. Twice in 30 years, in 1914-18 and 1939-45, a major war using
modern weapons had been fought over almost all of Europe’s territory.

On the first occasion, they lost a generation of young men. The second time, most countries from
Germany eastward saw around 10 percent of their populations killed — and most of the casualties
that time were civilians. Half of the continent’s great historic cities were reduced to ruins even
without the help of nuclear weapons. It was a very expensive education, but the Europeans did
finally learn their lesson: Don’t do this any more.

That is why, even as Russian tanks drive right up to Ukraine’s eastern borders and the Ukrainian
army prepares to die in a fight it knows it would lose, nobody else in Europe is getting ready for
war. If the Russians want part or all of Ukraine, they can have it — and pay the long-term price
for taking it, which would be very high. But nothing in Europe is worth blowing up all of Europe
for.

Do not be alarmed by the fact that troops and planes from as far away as the United States and
Canada are being sent to NATO countries that have borders with Russia. The numbers are militarily
insignificant. Their purpose is simply to remind the Russians that the alliance will protect its
own members, should Moscow ever decide that it also has a right to “protect” Russian-speakers in
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Moscow does not actually need to be reminded of that. It has seized Crimea, and is toying with
the idea of seizing more of Ukraine, precisely because that country does not fall under the NATO
umbrella. And it does not belong to NATO because NATO didn’t want to take military responsibility
for its defense.

The collapse of the status quo is partly the European Union’s fault, for demanding that Ukraine
choose between closer trade and travel ties with the EU and full membership in Russia’s “Eurasian
Union.” It is even more the fault of Moscow: President Vladimir Putin has been both emotional and
opportunistic. He’s scaring people, which is never a good idea.

But if he does take more or even all of Ukraine, the West will not fight him. It will just take
in all the Ukrainian refugees, strengthen its eastern defenses and begin the slow process of
bringing down Putin by crippling the Russian economy. That would take years, but nobody would
forget about Ukraine. It is a UN member, and even China has stopped supporting the Russian
position. Remember East Timor.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45
countries.