Sports Beat: My advice, follow the schedules

By Pat McCann | News Herald Executive Sports Editor

Published: Monday, July 28, 2014 at 04:46 PM.

Contrast that lineup with an Auburn team that is a known commodity after rising from the depths to produce a national championship run in 2013. The Tigers could be even stronger this fall, but can they duplicate their 12-2 finish?

Here’s one vote that the odds are against them. To begin with, in the muscle-bound SEC West at least three teams should be better this season; Arkansas, Mississippi and Mississippi State, and Alabama and LSU aren’t likely to suffer any dropoff. That leaves only Texas A&M as possibly taking a backward step in the division.

In addition to the West, Auburn plays at Kansas State, which recently was projected to finish third in the Big 12, and has crossover games against SEC East powers South Carolina and Georgia.

In addition II, Georgia and Alabama are going to have long memories from how Auburn defeated them in the finals seconds last season.

In addition III, the Tigers play five games in November, and three of them are on the road against Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama.

Does that infer Iowa will be a better football team than Auburn this season? No way. But if you had to project one of them to enter their conference championship game unbeaten, or perhaps even make it that far, which one would you choose?

Admittedly that’s a left-handed way of introducing the avalanche of expertise about to come our way profiling the 2014 football season, both college and pro. In lieu of masquerading as an expert — we aren’t — I will throw this on the pile.

Follow the schedules.

Simple really. It doesn’t make much difference how powerful a team looks on paper in August if it doesn’t play anybody with a fancy pedigree for a month or two. Chances are, that team is going to succeed at a higher rate than another that does have the qualifications, but is forced to run a gantlet about every other week.

In that regard, I offer one word: Iowa.

The Hawkeyes probably won’t be showing up on many preseason Top 25 lists released next month, nor probably should they. Yet a team that was 8-5 last year and played LSU toe to toe before losing the Outback Bowl returns seven starters on each side of the ball.

But here’s the twist. There aren’t too many variables I can come up with for Iowa not being 7-0 and ranked somewhere in the Top 15-20 when it entertains Northwestern on Nov. 1. The reasons are that they open with Northern Iowa, Ball State, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Indiana and Maryland.

Northwestern appears as a speed bump only because many of the sharps who make a living at this sort of thing consider the Wildcats to be under-rated heading into 2014.

Twist No. 2. Following Northwestern, Iowa plays Minnesota and Illinois. It’s not out of the question that the Hawkeyes will be 10-0 before they meet Wisconsin on Nov. 22. They play Nebraska the following week, and both of those games take place in Iowa City, as do seven of the 12 on the schedule.

The road trips are at Pitt, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota and Illinois.

Twist No. 3. Iowa doesn’t play Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State which annually help form the upper crust in the Big Ten.

It isn’t out of the question that Iowa could enter the Big Ten championship game ranked higher than one- or two-loss teams from other conferences that have been arm wrestling gorillas for three months. If that happens, we’ll suddenly turn around and say, “Yeah, but who have they played?”

Merely the teams on their schedule. The players don’t have a say in it.

Contrast that lineup with an Auburn team that is a known commodity after rising from the depths to produce a national championship run in 2013. The Tigers could be even stronger this fall, but can they duplicate their 12-2 finish?

Here’s one vote that the odds are against them. To begin with, in the muscle-bound SEC West at least three teams should be better this season; Arkansas, Mississippi and Mississippi State, and Alabama and LSU aren’t likely to suffer any dropoff. That leaves only Texas A&M as possibly taking a backward step in the division.

In addition to the West, Auburn plays at Kansas State, which recently was projected to finish third in the Big 12, and has crossover games against SEC East powers South Carolina and Georgia.

In addition II, Georgia and Alabama are going to have long memories from how Auburn defeated them in the finals seconds last season.

In addition III, the Tigers play five games in November, and three of them are on the road against Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama.

Does that infer Iowa will be a better football team than Auburn this season? No way. But if you had to project one of them to enter their conference championship game unbeaten, or perhaps even make it that far, which one would you choose?