Tag Archives: Anderson

The line of thunderstorms that was making its way to Anderson, IN early Friday morning juuuuust made it there, only dropping a few sprinkles in the area before it petered out. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast pretty much panned out as expected, as most of the activity on Saturday avoided the region. VW and ForecastIO dueled to a draw at the top of the standings, with VW’s forecast never more than 1 degree off.

We head off to Central Indiana today, which is just outside the main dome of stifling heat sitting over the Central US, but are still feeling the effects of it themselves. How long will it stick around? Let’s take a look, shall we?

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Anderson, IN was 77 degrees under fair skies. A Heat Advisory is in effect from midday Friday through Saturday evening as heat indices look to push into the low 100’s over the weekend. The main dome of intense heat continues to sit over the Central Plains into the Mid-MS Valley, causing storms to ride up and over the top of the ridge, then plummets south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and into the OH Valley. Activity shifting through WI/IL/IN currently continues its southward push until it peters out later this morning. Also keeping things active over the Southern Great Lakes is the tail end of a boundary lingering in the region from a low that’s pushed north of New England. That boundary will be less of an influence as we move into Saturday, but will be kicking off storms that will shift through the area during the afternoon/early evening hours. Saturday has the threat still lingering during the day, but odds are activity will focus both to the northwest and to the south. Humidity will be a bear both days, pushing expected heat indices into the 100-105 degree range. A good idea… just stay inside with the air conditioning and catch up on some DVR.

FIO: Friday: Rain in the morning and afternoon. High 91, Low 74.
Saturday: Light rain throughout the day. High 92, Low 71.

A line of potent thunderstorms is pushing its way through far northwestern Indiana, trailing back over Central Illinois and all the way up over far northeastern Iowa. It could make it down to central IN before the morning comes.

Let’s take a nice little trip, shall we? Does two days through the heart of America sound pretty good to you? We’re going to cover 1013 miles over the course of about 15 hours. With several twists and turns and drives through large cities, it seems like we might trudge our way slowly northward. Nope! Expect a pace of 68.75mph, which means 550 miles on Friday, leaving a bit of meat on the bone for Saturday.

DAY ONE (Friday)
At the base of a ridge moving into the Great Lakes, there is a perturbation preparing to shift from the Plains to the Southeast. Showers and storms will move quickly from Kansas and Oklahoma to cover much of Mississippi tomorrow morning. We will have a chance for thunderstorms starting around the point we turn north at Hammond. The heaviest of the activity will be between McComb and Brookhaven and then taper off by the time we hit Granada. It will likely clear up entirely as we head towards Memphis. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that our one stop, in Keiser, Arkansas, is completely dry.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
That moisture is expected to build back to the north overnight, so rain will fall after we arrive in Keiser and continue as we depart on Sunday morning. Guidance is all over the place with the scattered showers and storms in the region. I’ll stay on the safe side and say that the threat of wet weather will continue until we reach the Ohio River, even though I’m confident it won’t rain the whole time until we reach that point. North of the Ohio, we will be under the warm (cool, actually) embrace of high pressure. The trek through Illinois into Indiana will be free and easy.

We’re going to be spending our Thursday in the car, with a quick trip from South Carolina to West Virginia in our future. The drive will see us navigate the high terrain of Appalachian, which will really slow us down. A 366 mile journey will take us 6 1/2 hours to cover, which puts us at a sluggish 56.6mph pace. All right, let’s roll!

At the base of the developing ridge over the eastern United States is one last mid level trough cycling east along the Gulf Coast. This is bringing quite a bit of rain and thunder to the Gulf Coast with some showers and storms welling far enough north to reach northern Georgia and downstate South Carolina. As we leave Anderson, don’t be surprised if there are some clouds left over from the convective blowoff early in the day. After that, however, the drive will be great. It will be warm with sunny skies shining through the leafless trees of Appalachia. Huntington will finally be breaking out of the winter, and will be quite pleasant upon our arrival.

Upstate South Carolina is part of the country that sees showers and storms essentially every afternoon, and this year, that characterization spread into September as well. That’s not exactly the most revelatory statement, I suppose. In Anderson, they reported thunderstorms each of the last two days, though rather than a generally unstable environment, it was lower level trough abutting the southern Appalachians that brought all the rain. Because there was actually forcing, and they weren’t just born of instability, the storm activity raged into the night last night as well. Really, I guess the only thing that the last two days had with a random pair of days in late July is that thunderstorms were reported. With highs in the 90s, though, maybe there was another similarity. The National Weather Service and Victoria-Weather tied for the top.
Actuals: Tuesday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 93, Low 71
Wednesday – .39 inches of rain reported, High 93, Low 70

Northwestern, or Upstate South Carolina is a pretty well populated segment of the country. Some experts predict that one day it will be a part of a megalopolis corridor from Atlanta to Raleigh, because it’s already so well populated. That’s further into the forecast than this forecast intends to explore.

At 856PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. For the first time in several months, an upper level trough, albeit shortwaved, will have an impact on the Piedmont tomorrow. It’s expected to swing through the northern Great Lakes tomorrow, associated with a surface boundary that presently lies north of the Ohio River. The boundary and the surface low are both initially going to work to draw moisture northward through the region, which may produce some clouds, morning fog and isolated showers.
Upper level forces will steer the surface low almost due north into Nunavut thru the period, which in turn will slow down the front’s southerly advance on Tuesday. Still, with newly introduced surface moisture and a bushel of warm air, along with a surface boundary working its way through town, there should be more than enough instability to produce scattered showers and storms through the day on Wednesday, do they will be more reflective of typical summer convection than indicative of an autumnal change.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 93, Low 72
Wednesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 94, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 92, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 70

We are on our way to Iowa City today, which happens to be just south of a nasty complex of severe storms. The drive will be 6 hours and cover 392 miles. In the end, that will be about a 62.7mph pace. The day won’t be completely lost with such a short travel day, so let’s see some of the Plains and avoid some thunderstorms.

A cold front is stalled in the Northern Plains and the strong complex of thunderstorms in eastern Iowa will deteriorate as it shifts east away from the boundary, so we will start with a clean slate to begin our day tomorrow. For the most part, the drive will be hot and humid. The heat and humidity will lead to widespread clouds which may spit out a shower, but I don’t think it will be much of a thunder threat. The primary cold front will set itself up from northern Wisconsin to northern Iowa, and along it, a strong area of thunderstorms will develop tomorrow evening. We should be able to beat it to Iowa City, if it makes it that far south at all. Expect for some nasty thunderstorms over northern Iowa regardless of what goes on in Iowa City. Maybe we will see them on the horizon.

Just a shorty today, and one that takes us through a part o the country that I am fairly familiar with, though I haven’t necessarily been to any of these exact areas. OK, I have been to Anderson. It’s a 204 drive that will last 3 1/2 hours, giving us a pace of about 59mph. There aren’t many interstates to travel on, and the main ones take us right through the Cincinnati metro.

An are of low pressure churning it’s way through the northern Plains and into Canada is drawing a lot of moisture and instability north, and the models are doing a fairly poor job of handling it. Forecasts are for precipitation at all times along our route, but that’s with the courser models, and a failure to appreciate what’s actually going on across the environment right now. I think there will almost certainly be a sprinkle or two, maybe even a heavy shower, but the heavier stuff will remain west of Indianapolis. Hot, muggy and mostly cloudy conditions await in Anderson.

Nearly everyone was right on the forecast for Anderson. Well, everyone was right when it came to the nuts and bolts of a “yes or no” rain forecast.The consensus seemed to be that the rain would come prefrontally in spits and starts, but the front was moving faster than expected. There was more rain because the boundary arrived ahead of schedule. Another issue was the trapped moisture by the Piedmont. IT was an issue up and down the coast. Even though it didn’t kick out any showers on Saturday, and the rain was less than expected (before the front got there) on Sunday, temperatures were off by at least 5 degrees every day. It wasn’t a great forecast, but Victoria-Weather will gladly claim the title of top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 36, Low 21
Sunday .23 inches of rain, High 41, Low 33

We are now comfortably in 2014. How comfortable is it in, say, upstate South Carolina, for example?

At 1156AM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with clear skies. The Carolinas were in a northerly flow regime behind the cold front associated with the low moving through New England, and while temperatures were cooler than usual, South Carolina was also seeing calm conditions.
High pressure is expected to hang on through the day tomorrow, but another deep trough moving into the Midwest will help produce a cold front that will advance to run from the Great Lakes to the Smokey Mountains by midnight on Monday morning. This broader trough will be paired with a developing jet off the Carolina coast. This will produce a weak area of low pressure north of the Bahamas. The southerly flow produced by the deeper land based trough is going to tap into the instability offshore, and there will be showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorms over the Anderson area on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 43, Low 21
Sunday – Rain possible, with a chance for some thunder, mostly in the morning. Increasing wind late High 48, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 45, Low 20
Sunday – A chance of rain before noon, then a chance of showers after noon. Cloudy High 50, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 45, Low 19
Sunday – Cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning…then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 51, Low 33

The real show will come after this forecast period expires. A nice little round of showers and thunderstorms as yet another winter system heads towards the east coast. For now, let’s enjoy an essentially empty visible satellite.

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