Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS PULSING UP AND DOWN ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PARTLY EXPOSED
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A TRMM PASS AT 2203Z CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB/SAB...THE TRMM PASS SHOWED
NO WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HIGHER THAN 25 KT.
THERE ARE ALSO NO TRUE CURVED BAND FEATURES WITH A BLOB-LIKE
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT AND IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME THE
11TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD DUE TO GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE TRMM PASS ALSO HELPED THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NOW ABOUT
310/9. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH THAN
EARLIER...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG 125W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT... OR
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL.
MODELS ALSO INSIST ON A SLOWER MOTION THAN RECENTLY SEEN AND THE
FORECAST SPEED IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
NEEDED AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BETTER ASSIMILATES THE DEPRESSION'S
POSITION AND INTENSITY.
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.0N 119.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 50 KT
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