Driving the Day

Good Thursday morning. BUZZ IN THE CAPITOL — SMALL TAX PACKAGE THIS YEAR? — If Congress can’t squeeze through a big tax reform package this year, there’s already talk among some about passing a smaller package of tax cuts before the end of 2017, with the promise of trying to complete a larger reform effort in 2018. This would be a way for Republicans to say they gave the tax relief they promised. With health care reform far off, tax is the ball game for Republicans as they head into the 2018 election. There is optimism — some would call it exuberance — that Republicans will be able to get a large-scale tax package through in the 36 legislative days before the year’s up. FOR YOUR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS — Washington has a government funding fight in roughly two months.

FOR YOUR RADAR — NOT GOOD FOR HILL REPUBLICANS — From the most recent Quinnipiac poll: “American voters disapprove 78 – 15 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, worse than their 70 – 25 percent disapproval in a June 29 Quinnipiac University poll. Even Republican voters disapprove 61 – 32 percent. Voters disapprove 63 – 29 percent of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, virtually unchanged from June.

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“Voters say 47 – 38 percent, including 44 – 32 percent among independent voters, that they would like to see Democrats win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 Congressional elections. Voters also say 49 – 40 percent, including 47 – 34 percent among independent voters, they would like to see Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate next year.” http://bit.ly/2fTsHO4

ET TU, SCOTT PRUITT? — WAPO’S BRADY DENNIS and JULIET EILPERIN: “EPA’s Pruitt took charter, military flights that cost taxpayers more than $58,000”: “The most expensive of the four trips came in early June, when Pruitt traveled from Andrews Air Force Base to Cincinnati to join President Trump as he pitched a plan to revamp U.S. infrastructure. From there, the administrator and several staff members continued on a military jet to John F. Kennedy airport in New York to catch a flight to Italy for an international meeting of environmental ministers. The cost of that flight was $36,068.50.” http://wapo.st/2wWQkj8

— FROM MORNING ENERGY: “Any other non-commercial flights? ‘This is it,’ a spokesman told ME on Wednesday, adding he believed Pruitt had only flown by helicopter once to survey hurricane damage.”

— NOT FLYING PRIVATE: ELAINE CHAO. She was spotted flying coach yesterday on American Airlines flight 1597 from Phoenix to BWI. She was attending a conference for the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.

— THE FRONT PAGE OF THE NYT has a tease of their story about Trump’s anger toward Tom Price. http://nyti.ms/2fAsQJ1

STORY OF THE DAY — CAPITOL HILL BUREAU CHIEF JOHN BRESNAHAN — “Senate Republicans have never heard of Roy Moore: Numerous GOP senators said they were not familiar with the Alabama Senate candidate’s controversial views — but they want him elected”: “What about Moore’s history of racially insensitive comments? Haven’t heard anything. Homophobic remarks? Nada. Moore’s claim that some American communities are living under Sharia law? Crickets. Moore’s statement that 9/11 happened ‘because we’ve distanced ourselves from God’? Nothing for you on that. Moore’s assertion that Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison shouldn’t be allowed to serve in Congress because he’s a Muslim? We’ll get back to you. Moore saying Mitch McConnell should be replaced as Senate majority leader? Uhh, zip.

“‘I don’t know anything about Roy Moore,’ said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). ‘If I’ve read anything he’s said, I wouldn’t have any recollection of it.’ ‘I don’t know him. I think I’ll leave it there,’ said Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who laughed when asked about Moore. ‘I supported Luther Strange.’ ‘I’ve never met the gentleman,’ said Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson. ‘Being from Georgia, which is next to Alabama, I’ve heard his name in the Alabama Supreme Court. I know what I’ve seen on TV and what I’ve read in the papers.’ …

“‘Who won? I wasn’t paying attention,’ [Nevada Sen. Dean] Heller said. ‘I’m just worried about taxes.’ ‘He’s going to be for tax reform, I think,’ volunteered Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio. ‘I don’t know, I don’t know him.’ South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the lone African-American Republican in the Senate, said he ‘didn’t know anything about Roy Moore, and I’m not going to comment about anything I haven’t read about. … I literally have not followed that race.’ … ‘Roy Moore is unique,’ Shelby said cautiously. ‘A lot of people have history up here.’” http://politi.co/2yJVbBk

ELIANA JOHNSON: “Moore’s win conjures 2018 nightmare — for both parties”: “Roy Moore’s win in Alabama’s Senate primary has raised the specter of a nightmare scenario for Democrats and Republicans: The GOP picks up a handful of seats next year, padding its Senate majority, but with candidates like Moore, who buck party leadership as often as they fall in line. … ‘All of us who saw the rise of Trump and thought, ‘Oh, this country could never elect somebody who brags about assaulting women and mocks the disabled and war veterans, we’re thinking differently now,’ said Paul Begala, the veteran Democratic strategists. … ‘What do they say in recoveries? You have to hit bottom? I thought that with Trump they hit bottom,’ Begala said of the GOP. ‘But, apparently not, because Moore is worse.’” http://politi.co/2y9LYpf

— “Roy Moore’s Alabama Victory Sets Off Talk of a G.O.P. Insurrection,” by NYT’s Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin: “Republicans are confronting an insurrection on the right that is angry enough to imperil their grip on Congress, and senior party strategists have concluded that the conservative base now loathes its leaders in Washington the same way it detested President Barack Obama. … Mr. Strange’s demise, senior party strategists and conservative activists said Wednesday, makes it likelier that Republican incumbents in the House and Senate will face serious primary challenges in 2018, fueled by anger at the party’s apparent ineptitude at wielding power in Washington. …

“Republicans increasingly worry that their base’s contempt for Mr. McConnell is more potent than its love for Mr. Trump. Mr. McConnell could be an anchor around incumbents in the same fashion as Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, who is routinely used to undermine Democratic candidates.” http://nyti.ms/2xCT7ep

RICH LOWRY, “The GOP Identity Crisis”: “The Republican Party can’t pass Obamacare repeal but it can nominate Roy Moore. This is the state of the GOP in a nutshell. It is a party locked in mortal combat between an establishment that is ineffectual and unimaginative and a populist wing that is ineffectual and inflamed. It is rare for a governing coalition to have a bitter factional fight—usually the party out of power deploys the circular firing squads—although, on the other hand, this particular coalition isn’t doing much governing.” http://politi.co/2xEAlDC

JOSH DAWSEY: “Bannon’s next move: ‘Repeat Alabama’”: “Steve Bannon was amped early Wednesday, sounding as though he’d guzzled 20 Red Bulls at a victory party for Alabama’s Roy Moore as he plotted his next slash-and-burn campaign with trademark pugilism. He left Alabama after orchestrating a call between Trump and Moore for a flight to Colorado to meet with potential 2018 Senate candidates gathered there – and is planning extensive travel in coming months to recruit candidates to challenge incumbents across the country, people close to him say.

“Bannon says he remains on Trump’s team, but others in the White House have their doubts about the former chief strategist’s allegiance. He has told friends he is over the slights in the White House, but some close to him say he still seethes about a number of top officials, including Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and economic adviser Gary Cohn, whom Bannon routinely savaged as ‘Globalist Gary.’ He is publicly supportive of Trump but can be sharply critical in private, associates say.” http://politi.co/2yuJ3Dy

— COVER DU JOUR – STEVE BANNON on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek, “Where To Next?” by Josh Green (online headline: “Bannon’s Back and Targeting China”): “Bannon, who’s been consulting with Henry Kissinger and other foreign policy veterans, is preparing a project to sound an alarm about what he views as the primary economic threat to America: China. … As a candidate, Trump pledged to take aggressive action against China. And though he’s continued to talk tough, he’s done little to make good on his threats. … That lack of progress has convinced Bannon that an outside entity is necessary to focus U.S. attention—and political pressure—on confronting China more aggressively. What made up his mind, he says, was a pair of September meetings at Kissinger’s country home in Connecticut. …

“The day after [Roy] Moore’s victory, Bannon flew to Colorado to interview candidates in western states to carry the populist mantle in 2018. His effort to steer the GOP toward nationalism, Bannon explains, will involve encouraging candidates to take hard-line positions toward China. ‘Every day we are going to be making China a huge part of the ’18 and ’20 elections,’ Bannon says.” https://buswk.co/Bannonisback … The coverhttp://bit.ly/2wYP6Pv

— BANNON is headlining tonight at a conference put on by the Council for National Policy in Colorado Springs. He’ll be talking about how conservatives win in 2018, according to someone familiar with the planning of the conference, which will also hear from David Clarke and Scott Walker.

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THE LATEST ON PUERTO RICO … — “Now even money is running out in storm-hit Puerto Rico,” by AP’s Ben Fox and Danica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico: “First, Hurricane Maria knocked out power and water to Puerto Rico. Then diesel fuel, gas and water became scarce. Now, it’s money. The aftermath of the powerful storm has resulted in a near-total shutdown of the U.S. territory’s economy that could last for weeks and has many people running seriously low on cash and worrying that it will become even harder to survive on this storm-ravaged island.” http://bit.ly/2wYaXXw

INSIDE THE WEST WING — “Kelly folds Navarro’s trade shop into National Economic Council,” by Andrew Restuccia, Nahal Toosi and Tara Palmeri: “White House chief of staff John Kelly is folding adviser Peter Navarro’s trade office into the National Economic Council – a move that could limit Navarro’s influence in the West Wing. The Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, which is run by Navarro, will now be housed within the NEC, four administration officials told POLITICO. That means Navarro will report to NEC Director Gary Cohn, with whom he has repeatedly clashed in recent months. … ‘I’m a chain of command guy and will follow Chief Kelly’s orders,’ Navarro said in a statement to POLITICO. …

“Kelly’s decision to have Navarro report to Cohn, who has pushed behind the scenes to temper Trump’s hardline instincts, could further isolate the former economics professor. Cohn is Navarro’s ‘nemesis,’ according to an associate of Navarro’s. The two men have sometimes yelled at each other during White House trade meetings, and Cohn has often been dismissive of Navarro’s policy proposals. … Supporters of Navarro’s agenda worry the reassignment is the latest signal that the president is abandoning his trade promises.” http://politi.co/2k8Ii0P

TAX REFORM KICKOFF — WSJ’S RICH RUBIN — “5 Takeaways From the GOP Tax Framework: What we know so far about the effect on households’ tax burdens, budget deficits, business, and more”: “1. Don’t try too hard to calculate your tax bill. The framework offers plenty of specifics on tax rates and some deductions, but nowhere near enough for most people to figure out what they would pay. … 2. The wealthy win, but stay tuned. Key features of the tax plan skew the benefits toward upper-income households. … Republicans left themselves an opening for a tax bracket above 35% that would apply to the very highest earners, and that could leave some in the top 1% worse off, especially in a high-tax state such as New York where the state and local tax deduction is valuable. 3. There will be bigger budget deficits. …

“4. It’s the beginning, not the end. Congress still has a long checklist ahead. First, the House and Senate have to adopt a budget resolution. That will specify the maximum size of the tax cut over the next decade. It will also unlock the fast-track procedures known as reconciliation. Under reconciliation, a subsequent tax bill can pass with a simple majority and not require votes from Democrats.

“After the budget’s done, the House and Senate will each write their own tax bills and advance them through committee. Expect the plans to diverge as legislators try to get the math to work and to wrangle the votes. The House will be tricky because GOP members from New York, New Jersey and California will resist the repeal of the state and local tax deduction. In the Senate, Republicans have just a two-vote margin, meaning each senator will have significant sway. 5. Business fights lie ahead.”http://on.wsj.com/2wn01TA

— “Trump Tax Plan Benefits Wealthy, Including Trump,” by NYT’s Binyamin Appelbaum: “The tax plan that the Trump administration outlined on Wednesday is a potentially huge windfall for the wealthiest Americans. It would not directly benefit the bottom third of the population. As for the middle class, the benefits appear to be modest. The administration and its congressional allies are proposing to sharply reduce taxation of business income, primarily benefiting the small share of the population that owns the vast majority of corporate equity.

“President Trump said on Wednesday that the cuts would increase investment and spur growth, creating broader prosperity. But experts say the upside is limited, not least because the economy is already expanding. The plan would also benefit Mr. Trump and other affluent Americans by eliminating the estate tax, which affects just a few thousand uber-wealthy families each year, and the alternative minimum tax, a safety net designed to prevent tax avoidance.” http://nyti.ms/2xyIyeZ

— AP’S JOSH BOAK: “$5 trillion question for Trump tax plan: How to pay for it?”: “How do you pay for an estimated $5.8 trillion tax cut? For President Donald Trump and Republican congressional leaders, that is the mostly unanswered $5,800,000,000,000 question.

“The plan they released Wednesday took a first step toward outlining how Republicans propose to cover some of the monumental cost over the next 10 years, mainly by removing certain tax breaks. But even those proposed changes were left vague — and wouldn’t remotely pay the full cost of the tax cut.

“The administration says it would eliminate most personal tax breaks. Possibly gone would be people’s ability to deduct state and local taxes as well as eligible medical expenses. But doing so would still leave the tax cut more than $2 trillion shy of paying for itself. The Trump administration argues that it can accelerate the economy’s growth far beyond its current pace and, in doing so, generate enough federal revenue to cover the shortfall. Most economists have called that wishful thinking.” http://bit.ly/2yKgSl8

REAL TALK ABOUT TRUMP’S WASHINGTON — AP’s JULIE PACE: “The dysfunctional dynamic now stands at the center of Republicans’ last chance this year to prove they can pass major legislation — a sweeping, multitrillion-dollar tax cut that GOP officials believe is crucial to the party maintaining its congressional majority in the midterms. ‘Literally, if they can’t do this, they can’t do anything,’ said Tim Pawlenty, the former Republican governor of Minnesota and head of the Financial Services Roundtable, a bank lobbying group.” http://bit.ly/2yITyUP

— “Ryan vents over stalled GOP agenda in Senate,” by Cristiano Lima: “Speaker Paul Ryan on Wednesday said it was ‘extremely frustrating’ that the Republican majority in the Senate had been unable to push through pieces of the GOP agenda that have passed in the House. Equipped with graphs highlighting the disparity between the number of bills passed by the House and the number that have stalled in the Senate, Ryan (R-Wis.) aired his grievances during an interview on Fox News. He cited the upper chamber’s inability to convert on the Republican Party’s major goals thus far during the Trump administration.

“‘Is that frustrating for the House? You bet it’s frustrating in the House,’ Ryan told Fox News’ Sean Hannity, saying that 274 of the 337 bills that have passed in the House as of Sept. 22 have not made it through the Senate. Ryan singled out the Senate’s inability to pass a bill for repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act as a particular point of disappointment for House Republicans, while highlighting their successes on legislation for financial regulations and immigration. ‘The point is we’re on schedule in the House,’ he said. ‘We passed the health care bill back in May. We passed the repeal of Dodd-Frank. We did Kate’s law. We did sanctuary cities.’” http://politi.co/2wXNrcW

TRUMP’S DAY — President Donald Trump will meet with Acting Homeland Security Secretary Elaine Duke. He will participate in the 70th anniversary celebration of the National Security Council and meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong.

REMEMBERING HUGH HEFNER – Laura Mansnerus in the NYT: “Hugh Hefner, who created Playboy magazine and spun it into a media and entertainment-industry giant — all the while, as its very public avatar, squiring attractive young women (and sometimes marrying them) well into his 80s — died on Wednesday at his home, the Playboy Mansion near Beverly Hills, Calif. He was 91. His death was announced by Playboy Enterprises.

“Hefner the man and Playboy the brand were inseparable. Both advertised themselves as emblems of the sexual revolution, an escape from American priggishness and wider social intolerance. Both were derided over the years — as vulgar, as adolescent, as exploitative, and finally as anachronistic. But Mr. Hefner was a stunning success from his emergence in the early 1950s. His timing was perfect.” http://nyti.ms/2hyPv9w

Playbook Reads

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump leaves the Oval Office and walks to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 27. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

RUSSIA STILL AT IT — “Twitter, With Accounts Linked to Russia, to Face Congress Over Role in Election,” by NYT’s Daisuke Wakabayashi and Scott Shane: “After a weekend when Americans took to social media to debate President Trump’s admonishment of N.F.L. players who do not stand for the national anthem, a network of Twitter accounts suspected of links to Russia seized on both sides of the issue with hashtags such as #boycottnfl, #standforouranthem and #takeaknee. … Since last month, researchers at the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a bipartisan initiative of the German Marshall Fund, a public policy research group in Washington, have been publicly tracking 600 Twitter accounts — human users and suspected bots alike — they have linked to Russian influence operations. …

“Of 80 news stories promoted last week by those accounts, more than 25 percent ‘had a primary theme of anti-Americanism,’ the researchers found. About 15 percent were critical of Hillary Clinton, falsely accusing her of funding left-wing antifa — short for anti-fascist — protesters, tying her to the lethal terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012 and discussing her daughter Chelsea’s use of Twitter. Eleven percent focused on wiretapping in the federal investigation into Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign chairman, with most of them treated the news as a vindication for President Trump’s earlier wiretapping claims.” http://nyti.ms/2wYC98o

–“Russian-bought Black Lives Matter ad on Facebook targeted Baltimore and Ferguson,” by CNN’s Dylan Byers: “At least one of the Facebook ads bought by Russians during the 2016 presidential campaign referenced Black Lives Matter and was specifically targeted to reach audiences in Ferguson, Missouri and Baltimore, sources with knowledge of the ads told CNN. … Senator Mark Warner, the top-ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Tuesday that the ‘million-dollar question’ about the Facebook ads centered on how the Russians knew whom to target. …

“The targeting issue is also important because, if it appears that the targeting was particularly sophisticated, questions may be raised about how the Russians knew where to direct their ads. Further, information about the targeting could help investigators determine whether or not there was collusion between these ad buyers and the Trump campaign.” http://cnnmon.ie/2k5sYSu

HMM – “Chad’s Inclusion in Travel Ban Could Jeopardize American Interests, Officials Say,” by NYT’s Helene Cooper, Mike Shear and Dionne Searcey: “President Trump’s decision to impose his updated travel ban on Chad came over the objections of Pentagon and State Department officials, who argued that alienating the nation, one of America’s more reliable counterterrorism allies in Africa, risked harming long-term national security interests, administration officials said on Tuesday. Mr. Trump accepted the recommendation of Elaine C. Duke, his acting secretary of Homeland Security, to include Chad in the travel ban after she wrote in a classified report that the country had done too little to crack down on Islamic extremists.

“The president announced the travel restrictions after the White House’s Domestic Policy Council distributed Ms. Duke’s report to relevant agencies to seek input, according to officials at the State Department and the Pentagon. Officials at both departments were opposed to banning travelers from Chad, concerned about American interests, as were diplomats at the American embassy in the capital of N’Djamena, administration officials said. But Stephen Miller, the president’s senior policy adviser, urged adoption of the entire list as recommended by Ms. Duke.” http://nyti.ms/2hAQYfz

— “Alleged leaker Reality Winner said she stuffed NSA report in her pantyhose,” by Josh Gerstein: “A National Security Agency contractor accused of leaking a classified report on Russian hacking aimed at the 2016 election told FBI agents she smuggled the document out of a high-security intelligence facility in her pantyhose. That and other details appear in a transcript federal prosecutors filed in court Wednesday detailing the interrogation of 25-year-old linguist Reality Winner by the FBI as they carried out a search warrant at her home in June.

“After insisting for some time that she printed out the report and kept it on her desk for a few days before disposing of it in a burn bag, Winner caved and acknowledged she hid the document before sending it off to a news outlet, now known to be the Intercept. ‘So how did you get it out of the office?’ FBI agent Justin Garrick asked. ‘Folded it in half in my pantyhose,’ Winner replied.” http://politi.co/2k4ZrIF

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TROUBLE ON THE LEFT? — “Poll: Voters skeptical of Feinstein reelection bid,” by David Siders: “Half of likely California voters say Sen. Dianne Feinstein should not run for re-election, according to a new poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California. Forty-six percent of California adults and 50 percent of likely voters say Feinstein should not seek a sixth term, according to the poll. Yet the survey does not test Feinstein against any other potential candidate, and a majority of Democrats — 57 percent — say Feinstein should run again.

“Though Feinstein’s public approval rating has ticked down slightly from January, it stands at a relatively favorable 48 percent among California adults and 54 percent among likely voters. The poll comes as Feinstein sustains increased criticism from her party’s left flank, with the possibility of a Democratic challenger in next year’s election.” http://politi.co/2wl9VFv

MEDIAWATCH – MEGAN LIBERMAN is joining SiriusXM as SVP of news, talk and entertainment. She was previously VP and editor in chief of the Yahoo News Group and also spent 13 years at the New York Times.

— SUSAN GLASSER will write a twice-monthly column for The New Yorker’s website.

— ANDREA MITCHELL was honored on Wednesday by the IRTS as a “Giant of Broadcasting.” Pic by Brian Stelter, who reports that Andrea told the crowd: “We are not the enemies of the people. We are the eyes and ears of the people”http://bit.ly/2xC6OKJ

Playbookers

SPOTTED — Miss America Cara Mund was feted last night at Kent and Karen Knutson’s home. Several fellow North Dakotans were on hand, including Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) and Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.). Pic of Anna, Katie Pudwill and Kent with Mundhttp://bit.ly/2xCPEwn … former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist last night drinking a margarita with salt from a martini glass while nibbling on chips at the bar at Bobby Van’s on 15th Street.

TRANSITIONS — Bill Russo is joining former Vice President Joe Biden’s personal office as communications director. Russo spent the last nine months helping start Biden’s foreign policy center at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a State, NSC and Obama White House alum.

—DENIS MCDONOUGH is chairing a new group called the Rework America Task Force that will try to solve the skill gap problem.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Steve Dwyer, senior adviser to Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, and Kate Riley, VP of government and public affairs at America’s Public Television Stations, recently welcomed their third daughter, Lucy Jane. “She weighed in at 9lbs 2oz and measured 20.75 inches long. Big sisters Eleanor and Clara are in love with little Lucy and happy to have a third musketeer!” Pichttp://bit.ly/2hzz1Oe

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY:Steve Schmidt, vice chairman at Edelman, MSNBC political analyst and Bush, McCain and Schwarzenegger alum, is 47. A fun fact about Steve: “I have an absolutely perfect infallible photographic memory when it comes to every Russian I’ve ever met in my life.” Read his Playbook Plus Q&A:http://politi.co/2xNxJ8j

****** A message from Morgan Stanley: Refurbishing, reusing and recycling are helping to squeeze more life out of all the ‘stuff’ being consumed. Could this be the next big disruptive trend in global markets? A report from Morgan Stanley argues that new technology and increasing climate-based legislation around the world is creating new business opportunities based on the circular economy. A circular economy uses products, materials and resources for as long as possible, by refurbishing, sharing, leasing or recycling. The goal is to extend product life cycles, generating environmental and economic benefits along the way. Pioneering companies in a number of sectors are already shifting in this direction. The global economy, driven by consumer frenzy to have the latest, best new model, now must contend with climate change, water scarcity and damage to the physical environment. Companies that embrace these trends can find new revenue streams and cut costs. Read more from Morgan Stanley. ******

The host of TYT Network's nationally-syndicated Bill Press Show (Monday-Friday from 7-9am ET), Press attends the daily White House press briefing and writes a weekly column for the powerhouse politics website The Hill.