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Monday, December 06, 2010

Believe It Or Not - Banks Walking On Air

Ignore that graphic's title because it doesn't even begin to broach the real story.

As you can see, over just the past 2 years, the banks have allowed the average foreclosure to become 500 days payment-delinquent up from what had been only a 250-300 day allowance.

But what MEANS is so much more important...

It means that there's a ton of invisible, yet eventual housing supply lurking out there waiting to crush home prices.

And it means that the banks are thoroughly bankrupt already! Why else would they be forestalling losses reality so aggressively?

BTW, I don't care what anyone says....homes in the Northeast cities: Boston, NYC, Philly, Washington DC and their tony suburbs HAVE NOT even begun to decline in price.

While that 5 or sub-5% mortgage rate might seem tempting or reassuring to today's first-time buyers I'm sorry to inform them that it most certainly is FOOL'S GOLD.

While technically their loan is fixed, for 30 years, I submit that it is still, for all intents and purposes, a *teaser rate*. Because once rates inevitably rise, their house will plummet in value, putting them in that massive negative-equity, strategic-default-considering position.

My BIL is looking to buy a house here on Long Island.

It's a nice house; and he can afford it.

But that's besides the point. Check out the real estate taxes on it over the past 5 years:

They've jumped from $7,325 to $11,003 a whopping 50% increase in a only a handful of years!