Articles by Peter Tertzakian

Internal combustion engines keep accumulating at a rate of tens of millions per year. When is the earliest date that we could expect to see “peak piston”? Your intuition may be taxed when I say this, but more electric vehicle sales does not quickly equate to declining piston-fired cars on the world’s roadways. Banning All Engines In my last column, I pitched an aggressive de-carbonization scenario for transportation—a simultaneous, global ban on the sale of all new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2040.…

Imagine if we woke up tomorrow and read the headline, “GLOBAL PACT: ALL COUNTRIES AGREE TO BAN THE SALE OF INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES.” And then imagine that we wake up in 2040 and learn that every country actually kept to their promise. In 23 years all new vehicle sales—everywhere—would be electrically-powered. I call this scenario “GB40” – a global ban on the sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by the year 2040. For reference, the GB40 market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) would…

Change in the world of wheels is accelerating! Momentum is building and some days it’s hard to keep up. Every week, the assumptions about the future of transportation, and the energy systems that turn our wheels, are becoming more Jetson-esque. The excitement is palpable and as a technology junkie I love it. Auto shows are rolling out new electric vehicle (EV) models; China says it’s planning on banning internal combustion engines (ICE); and Daimler is jockeying with Tesla in the budding electric truck segment. In the battery world,…

The outlook for 2018 oil prices is dull. A majority of pundits have now corralled their one-year forecasts into a narrow, “lower-for-longer” price band, with little disagreement. A humdrum, fifty-dollar-a-barrel price outlook for next year is part of a recipe to stifle investment, mute production growth and burn off inventories. On a positive note, that’s what’s ultimately needed to cook up higher oil prices. The Yawn Consensus A few keystrokes on a Bloomberg terminal will get you a list of 24 recent oil price forecasts…

NAFTA talks continue. Goods like milk, lumber and auto parts are all under the negotiators’ microscopes. Oil is clearly visible too. Last year, the bilateral trade of energy (including natural gas, oil and power) between the U.S. and Canada was about U.S $55 billion, with oil being 80 percent of the total. Its dollar amount dwarfs other industries, but negotiators may need to view this vital commodity using a different lens. Beyond size, the upstream oil business between America and Canada reveals big shifts in dollar and volume trade over…