The Edmonton Oilers and Sam Gagner are less than 18 hours away from an arbitration hearing, but are both sides willing to take the risk that comes with accepting a one-year deal?

Make no mistake there are risks for both sides.

OILERS....

By accepting a one-year deal there is the potential that Sam Gagner can play out his contract and become an unrestricted free agent next summer. After seven seasons of developing the former 6th overall pick in 2007, the Oilers could loss him for nothing.

They could trade him during the season, and at least get an asset or two in return, but if he gets injured he's untradeable.

They have no one in the organization ready to replace Gagner. They would be dealing from a position of weakness.

The perception that a young player doesn't want to stay in Edmonton could be harmful.

Gagner has a great season and the Oilers would have to pay him $5.75 million for eight years.

They sign him long term, and he never becomes more than a 55 point player.

GAGNER...

I sense from many fans that Gagner is in a great position, and he has nothing to lose by accepting a one-year deal. I'm not sure that is the case. I'd agree Gagner has more leverage, but he still has some risk.

Injury is the biggest risk for Gagner. He is very competitive, he doesn't play on the perimeter, and an injury will impact his next contract. Look at how many players who are one year from unrestricted free agency, yet end up re-signing before the final year of a deal. The security of a long-term deal combined with the risk of an injury in the final year of a deal, is too high more many players.

He has another up and down season, and doesn't establish himself as a consistent point-producer and two-way centre.

Will Gagner's stock be higher next summer if he only puts up 50 points this season?

This past season only three UFA forwards received more than $5 million in AAV salary over a four-year term. Mike Ribeiro got $5.5 mill for 4 years, Nathan Horton inked $5.3 million for six years and David Clarkson got $5.25 over 7 seasons. Gagner doesn't bring size or toughness like Horton and Clarkson, but his game is similar to Ribeiro.

Ribeiro is 33, but he tallied 49 points in 48 games last year and in his last 9 seasons he has played 669 games and scored 572 points. He's averaged 0.85 points per game, while in the last 6 seasons Gagner has played 414 games and scored 258 points, 0.62 points per game.

Clearly Ribeiro won't be more productive in his mid 30s as his was his previous nine seasons, but if Gagner doesn't have a 60-point season, is it a guarantee he'll get more than $5 million/season?

Is the grass always greener? Gagner likes Edmonton, his girlfriend is from here and he's becoming more of a leader every year. The organization speaks and thinks highly of him, but is it certain he will have the same success and opportunity elsewhere if he leaves after this year?

STILL A CHANCE....

Last year, Gagner and the Oilers reached an agreement on the morning of his scheduled July 20th arbitration date, so it is still possible they can avoid an arbitrator.

Both sides would rather avoid the hearing and sign a multi-year extension, and if a no-movement clause is a sticking point, why not meet in the middle and give Gagner one in the final year of a three-year pact. He can't have one next year, (NMC can't kick in until a player is eligible to become a UFA), so spliting the final two years would seem reasonable.

A source told me the Oilers have offered a multi-year deal at $4.5 mill/year, so you know there if room to negotiate and get close to $5mill/year.

This is the most intriguing contract negotiation in recent Oilers' history, because no one is certain what type of player Gagner will become.

Was last season's 38 points in 48 games a preview of his future offensive production?

Or was the fact that he didn't produce late in the year, during the most important ten-game stretch of the season, a sign of what the future holds?

PARTING SHOTS...

The Oilers need Gagner, and their lack of future offensive centremen has them in a weak bargaining position, however, the question still remains unanswered if the Oilers can win with Gagner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as their future top-two centres.

The rational part of my brain believes both sides can live with a three-year deal. It allows the Oilers more time to see what Gagner becomes, and Gagner could still test the free agent waters at very young age. It makes the most sense.

Unfortunately, I've come to realize that rarely do we use the words rational and NHL negotiations in the same sentence.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR

One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor

I'm sure neither side wants to go into a meeting today, but I'm willing to bet that MacT has a back up plan. There is no way he's prepared to be handcuffed to a contract he doesn't want. MacTavish is smart and will do the best thing for the team. I'm waiting for an announcement regarding a bold move that will centre (no pun intended) around Gagner. Just because MacT hasn't said anything, doesn't mean there isn't anything to be said.

Omark has no trade value. You wouldn't have to add anything in the trade. Nashville has Jones coming in as a replacement and they get a center. The biggest thing is is that it saves Nashville money. Makes sense for both sides.

So can we consider this a bit of a hometown discount. Shorter term with a bit lower money. I think that if it was a 4 or 5 year deal, the money may have been a bit higher, especially in the last couple years.

I like the fact that the no trade clause doesn't kick-in until next summer. If it becomes obvious that the team needs more size up front, I would think Gagner could be moved at the deadline for more than he was worth under his old expired contract.

Sam gagner is a 46% FO Center. which is a concern in the pocession game.
But!
Gagner was:
top 20 in scoring for centers. (1st line)
top 10 centers for PP production (1st line)
top 3 PK GAA centers (1st line)
last year.

I don't have to creep dickhead because I've met her and know of her plans. I assume oilers management know gagner as both the player and person and could have used this when they negotiate e.g. We know you want to stay here and we want you to stay here let's get this done. Get over yourself buddy...