A year ago only two of the panel of 20 professional forecasters assembled for this newspaper's BusinessDay economic survey picked an Australian dollar above $US1. They were the only two that were right. This time only four picked an Aussie below $US1.

There's a reward for staying with the pack. You'll keep your job if you are wrong in good company, even if the people who act on your advice lose the lot. The shocking and little-acknowledged truth is that most expert forecasts are wrong. Not only wrong, but more wrong than if they had been generated at random.