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Farm Futures Predicts Record Corn Crop

Corn yield down from earlier projections, but soybeans maintain potential.

Aug 06, 2007

U.S. corn growers appear ready to harvest a record crop of 12.64 billion bushels, according to new research by Farm Futures Magazine, but soybean production could fall to 2.68 billion, the lowest since 2003.

The magazine's estimates are based on an exclusive email survey of more than 600 producers conducted July 26 to August 4, as well as crop ratings published by USDA.

USDA releases its official estimates on August 10, in one of the most widely anticipated crop reports of the year.

Farm Futures estimates the average national corn yield at 147.96 bushels per acre, down slightly from the 149.1 bpa achieved in 2006. The average U.S. soybean yield was put at 42.36 bpa, also down from last year's 42.7 published by USDA.

"The corn crop pollinated under good conditions in much of the Midwest, but warmer and drier weather in July reduced the potential for above average yields," according to Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who conducted the survey. "The jury is still out on soybean yields, which will be determined by August weather."

Farm Futures Market Analyst Arlan Suderman believes expanding biofuels production should continue to dominate the markets in the coming year.

"While the size of the corn crop is down from earlier estimates, it should still produce adequate stocks to satisfy record demand fueled by the booming ethanol industry," says Suderman.

"However, a 12.64 billion-bushel crop would still not build stocks sufficiently to allow corn to give up acres to soybeans in 2008, with 76 new ethanol plants currently under construction and expected to open by early 2009. The current soybean production estimate would keep stocks comfortable over the next year if it holds, but it would require a significant expansion of production in 2008 to feed the emerging global biodiesel industry."