Unlike Anne's gables, Canada’s smallest and arguably most eco-friendly province was not yet ready to turn green in its recent election, but the party did secure the opposition, a first.

The election of a second Green party MP weeks later in progressive British Columbia however did point to a new trend, a greening of politics in Canada years after a similar European breakthrough.

In national polls Elizabeth May’s party was in fact closing in on the once surging but now third place NDP whose leader failed to recapture the orange wave of yesteryear. The Green party’s new seat was in fact stolen from an NDP MP in the province, heralding a battle for votes amid the raging debate on climate change.

Canada may not be on the eve of a green wave quite yet, but green is trending, on the heels of mass protests in Europe notably led by youth such as 16 year old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, floods in the East of the country many leaders attributed to climate change and a devastating biodiver-sity report.

Not that this hasn’t created a certain backlash in Canada, amid a heated debate on carbon taxes and pipelines, the country with the longest coast line on Earth seeing its climate warming footprint climb at twice the rate of the global average, confirming its status of environmental bad boy. Underlining this further, the diplomatic spat with the Philippines over Canadian garbage shipped overseas.

This week parties tabled competing motions on Parliament Hill to declare a climate emergency in Canada, imitating the United Kingdom, home to sweeping protests to draw attention to environmental issues, and more recently Ireland. “We want to reflect the urgency people are feeling," declared NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. “This is the direction the world is headed.”

While this was going on in the House of Commons, the Green party introduced its version of a Green New Deal entitled Mission Possible, a platform to put the nation on a wartime footing with objectices to cut 2005 emissions down by 60% by 2030 and zero by 2050, all the while vowing to decarbonize and modernize the electricity grid. This would take time and in the interim plans called for ending oil imports and relying solely on Canadian petroleum production while retrofitting Canadian homes and businesses.

In Toronto meanwhile the Tory leader took a different approach, promising to fight climate change amid criticism of failing to unveil a climate plan, but vowing to end the carbon tax and create a new energy corridor for major East-West pipeline projects. The bottom line, Andrew Scheer argued: we are not yet in a post-carbon world.

But the growing number of car manufacturers pushing electric only models in the years ahead seem to be on to something. But meanwhile the country is clearly divided on the way forward. In the middle of this debate, Justin Trudeau conceded the green win in B.C. showed Canadians were deeply concerned about climate change, adding his party would make it a point of focus in the fall.

After months of being confronted with ethical issues and charges of political interference, the federal Liberals hope the environment can lift them back in the polls ahead of the election. Could holding the middle ground score points, if so who owns it? In PEI green politicians attacked the Liberal environmental plan saying it didn’t reduce emissions, leader Peter Bevan Baker panning the nationwide Liberal approach: “They are giving money back to those driving around in cars, they’re essentially just circling that money around,” he said.

The greens sought tougher measures perhaps not ready for prime time but gaining traction. Largely spared by this year's floods, the island is however concerned by recent reports showing the East Coast could see water levels rise by anything between 75cm to a metre by the end of the century, increasing erosion and threatening structures close to the water.

Water was the great threat this melting season as New Brunswick, Quebec and Ontario dealt with dramatic flooding and evacuations which have required the assistance of the armed forces, a phenomenon which may increase with global warming. PEI’s vote made it, after Alberta, the second turfing of an incumbent leader with a majority in the provinces in a week, in a sign of discontent with current premiers.

But, some argued, is the national Tory lead in opinion polls soft because of the party’s shaky stance on climate change? By all measures the topic is increasingly sensitive. A grade 11 exam in Quebec created a backlash because it asked students if “can we adapt to climate change”, drawing the ire of pupils who accused officials of accepting climate change. Something to chew on like a plant-based beyond meat burger.

But is this all bit too much? Not according to the country's financial authorities. The green also seems to be betting on green as the Bank of Canada made plain its concern about the long term effects of climate change, identifying it as a major weak spot for the economy. "Economic activity and the environment are intertwined," said the bank this week in a report. "Most experts agree that the global climate is changing and that this has growing implications for the economy. But the range of possible outcomes is large."

And concern is even catching on in the U.S. despite and perhaps because of the president’s aversion to green policies and embrace of coal and off shore drilling in ecologically sensitive areas. In addition to the Green New Deal touted by Democrats, presidential contender Jay Inslee proposed his own "evergreen economy" platform this week, calling for$9 Trillion in investments in green jobs over 10 years.

After a quarter century of uninterrupted power and recent years rocked by corruption allegations you would expect a ruling party in any democracy to be seriously diminished.

Therefore the 58% collected by South Africa’s ANC, its lowest score since the end of Apartheid, could be considered a victory for the only party in power since the end of white rule.

Electors saw interim leader Cyril Ramaphosa as having been convincing he would implement much needed reforms in the country which has experienced not only high unemployment, especially among restless and educated youth, but the greatest inequalities anywhere on earth.

For sure scoring under 60% and a dipping participation rate were setbacks for the government that saw the rainbow nation lose its title of largest economy in Africa a few years ago. It has been con-fronted with the challenge of 27% unemployment and a mistrust of politicians raising questions about the health of the democratic process.

“We have learned our lesson,” vowed Ramaphosa. “We have heard the people of South Africa. We have heard the clear message of what they expect from us,” he said in a victory speech in which he promised to end corruption “whether people want it if not. We will nail them.”

But this is directed at members of his own party, showing divisions following periods of widespread graft under the rule of Jacob Zuma, whom Ramaphosa replaced as leader in 2017.

The economy has suffered two recessions in the last decade and barely registered 0.8% growth last year. “The South African economy really struggled to achieve lasting momentum,” noted Razia Khan of Standard Chartered. “The question is though, does this election result change anything? Will we now see the institu-tionalization of reforms, will we see a surge in consumer and business confidence, could we see household spending and investment taking off?”

The country once held promise, but corruption and shortages such as water issues have long eroded the post-Apartheid opportunities South Africa once offered. “What South Africa needs is private sector confidence to be reinvigorated for investors to start investing again in order to boost growth,” Khan tells Al-Jazeera.

Over the last year some $35 billion has been committed to the country by overseas economies, not the least of which is China, whose leader pledged half of that during his 2018 visit. The Australian newspaper called the electoral result a turning point in South African politics.

“If it does not succeed in curbing the corruption that has taken hold at virtually every level of society, the dreams of true emancipation that underpinned Mandela’s anti-Apartheid regime will remain unfulfilled.”

The election saw the weakening of the traditional parties such as the ANC and Democratic Alliance, and the rise of more extremist elements such as the Economic Freedom Fighters, who seek to evict white farmers without compensation and nearly doubled their support to 10%, and Freedom Front Party, supportive of Afrikaner autonomy. While support for both is still low, it has managed to grow from popular frustration with the status quo, one which may only rise if Ramaphosa fails to move the county forward.

The chocolate king against the sit com comedian, this duel had high ratings all over it but the stakes were even higher. The contest was for the presidency of Ukraine and the youthful Volodymyr Zelensky, who once played a school teacher who unexpectedly becomes presi-dent was the incarnation of both a new style of Ukrainian politics and life imitating art.

In a field crowded with well known candidates, perhaps too many, Zelensky scored no less than 30% of the tally in the first round and a whopping 73% in the second round runoff as 36 million went to the polls seeking change after a mandate which began with revolution but became mired in corruption allegations.

For the record that's a score even higher than what his fictional character obtained. But with the Russian bear always looking to pick new fights, such as in the waters of the Crimean strait, Ukrainians are hoping their new leader's act will be no joke and offer fresh new policies without failing to stand up to Moscow.

“I would like to say thank you to all the Ukrainians who did not vote just for fun,” the 41 year old with a knack for landing jibes said after his first round win. In the divided country Zelensky's strong showing managed to unite voters, even after a campaign during which incumbent Petro Poroshenko warned the young populist candidate had neither the experience nor the character to stand up to Russia.

“It is up to you Ukrainians to decide which course the country will take, who will be the supreme commander, who will represent Ukraine in international meetings, with Western leaders, and in conversations with Moscow,” Poroshenko warned. “Who is my opponent? I am not ashamed to say it openly, it is Putin,” he stated on Twitter.

But in the end Ukrainians ignored their sweet tooth and embraced their funny bone by a landslide. Moscow has made plain it welcomed the removal of Poroshenko, elected after Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in 2014.

After Zelensky's election, Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev said he expected the new leader to "repeat familiar ideological formulas" used during the election campaign, but added "at the same time, there is a chance to improve relations with our country." Zelensky said he would seek to "reboot" peace talks with the separatists fighting in the East of the country.

"I think that we will have personnel changes," he said. "In any case we will continue in the direction of the Minsk (peace) talks and head towards concluding a ceasefire."

But the Kremlin sent an unmistakable message by announcing it would make it easier for Ukrainians to acquire Russian citizenship, a move quickly derided by a new leader anxious show he would be no push over and could get tough with Moscow: "We, Ukrainians, have freedom of speech, free media and the Internet in our country," he said.

"Therefore, we know perfectly well what a Russian passport actually provides. This is the right to be arrested for peaceful protest, the right not to have free and competitive elections, the right to forget about the existence of natural rights and freedoms." And so it begins.

FROM TRAGEDY, OPPORTUNITY?

With the sensitive territory already a major Brexit issue, Northern Ireland hardly needed an incident rekindling fears and tragedies of decades past. But could the sorrow lead to hopes of a new show of unity or just more tension in an area already too familiar with it?

The death of a young journalist during a protest in Derry was claimed by the so-called New IRA paramilitary group, formed in 2012, which is attempting to change the course of recent history in which arms were traded in for ballots to defuse age old tensions at the northern end of the island.

Lyra McKee was hit by a stray bullet as she covered rioting on the eve of the anniversary of the Good Friday agreement which had opened the way to peace, shocking a community once more engulfed in grief and seized by fears of new waves of violence in a region where it had shed blood and wreaked havoc for years.

By showing up at her funeral British and Irish leaders were determined to show the region would no more return to the dark ages of the Troubles that divided them, even if divisions persist to this day in Northern Ireland, where violence persists, though not at the level it once was. This has added to the shock surrounding the death of the up and coming 29 year old reporter.

The original Irish Republican Army had claimed some 1700 victims over the years, a number which has dwindled to under a 100 since, but every single one of them was a reminder of the potential for violence which lies beneath, and some fear may lead to new very real trouble in the current charged Brexit environment.

Thankfully a number of other attempts to foment terror by the group caused little damage or injuries, but did keep up the fear factor. McKee’s death may have been a step too far, prompting outrage, an apology by the New IRA and a large number of tips to police, in a region where they tend to be rare.

“In the course of attacking the enemy, Lyra McKee was tragically killed while standing beside enemy forces, ” the group said in a statement to the Irish News, offering “our full and sincere apologies to the partner, family and friends of Lyra McKee for her death.” A rare unity formed under the roof of the church in Belfast celebrating her life, one some hoped would end months of political paralysis.

“The outpouring of condemnation from the communities all standing together was something I think was quite unique and quite different,” noted chief constable George Hamilton at the service. Offers have since been made to try to break the political deadlock in Northern Ireland, which has been without a proper government to speak of for two years ever since a scandal over a failed renewed energy scheme led to the collapse of the devolved government of that part of the United Kingdom.

Power sharing agreement talks have failed to create a new government since those early elections held in 2017, leaving the area without a rudder as Brexit discussions began, in part bringing a focus on delicate issues surrounding U.K. territory detached from the mainland such as Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.

New talks were now to get underway in May, though skeptics remained cautious about their chance of success. As for the New IRA, it remains an amateurish outlet of thugs and petty criminals which is bound to lose much of any support it may have had, argues a Stratfor analysis.

"Though the group has received extensive press coverage it is small, marginalized and tactically unsophisticated - essentially a street gang using the republican cause to justify criminality," writes Scott Stewart. "The group could grow its capability, but incidents like the recent shooting will diminish the scant public support it previously had."

Eight years after the Arab Spring one could hardly argue the turmoil of that period of upheaval has receded in the region. Tunisia, where the first dramatic acts unfolded, has managed to reach some level of stability, to a degree, while Egypt has found some calm under the current military leadership, hardly an outcome protesters had vied for when they invaded Tahrir square in 2011.

But other areas remained deeply in crisis, from a Yemen facing a humanitarian disaster due to a full scale war enabled by foreign powers where things couldn’t possibly get worse, to a Libya where things certainly could, also jolted by outside intervention.

The international community has called for an immediate halt to hostilities, in a country which has hardly stabilized since Moammar Gaddafi’s ouster, as a rebel commander marched his troops from the restive East of the country to the capital in the West, home to a struggling internationally recognized government constantly under pressure and under threat.

The government has been unable to truly control large areas of Libya since 2011 but such is the intention of general Khalifa Haftar, who had helped Gaddafi gain power in 1969 before falling out with him and leaving the county. He returned after the events of 2011, first ridding the eastern city of Benghazi, a key city in the revolution of eight years ago, of Islamist insurgents before turning his sights on the capital.

Early April meetings with U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, sent to defuse the crisis and call for a humanitarian truce as Haftar’s Libyan Liberation Army charged on the capital from the south and west, left the former returning home empty handed and fearful of the days and weeks ahead in that part of North Africa.

Within days both the Government of National Accord, established in 2015 with the support of the United Nations, and LNA were trading air strikes in what has become a full fledged war. Haftar had long threatened to move on the capital but observers had until recently been encouraged his presence at various international conferences seemed to indicate he could perhaps find a political role to play amid the current leadership.

The conflict has killed dozens and displaced thousands in a country already struggling with the movement of asylum seekers looking to reach European shores, and sparking concerns it may now be the source of an exodus of more migrants seeking their way north and out of the troubles.

Haftar's offensive was supported by Libya's Eastern parliament, which once again resumed activities in Benghazi amid the turmoil, its speaker Aguila Saleh insisting there could be no political solution to bring stability to the deeply divided country without first "ridding it of terrorists... we will go to the polls when the factions drop their weapons."

This is not how the situation is being assessed in the West, despite some differences between European powers. "A military solution is not viable," opined Italy's government leader Giuseppe Conte. "There's high risk this will provoke a humanitarian crisis. Chaos in Tripoli could trigger the flight of many Libyans."

France has however hinted it was more supportive of Haftar's activities, along with Cairo, which received him last week to discuss the evolving situation, and other Arab countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Qatar mean-while, isolated by other Gulf states for years, has sided with Tripoli along with Turkey. This division has only fueled the flames higher, former British diplomat Oliver Miles told Al-Jazeera.

THEN IT WAS BASHIR

Days after Abdelaziz Bouteflika was removed from power in Algeria, another longtime strongman of the African continent was turfed under pressure by military officials amid sweeping national protests.

What began as a nearly seasonal protest against food prices in Sudan became a wave of unprecedented demonstrations seeking the ouster of Omar Bashir, cries growing louder after clashes left scores dead.

Last week the military took over from the man accused of human rights violations, genocide and crimes against humanity, amid calls by rights groups to lift the state of emergency and allow freedoms of assembly as protesters gathered around military facilities.

Autho-rities initially imposed a curfew and three months of emergency measures after weeks of protests which recently had drawn nearer to sensitive areas of power. Short of slowing down, emboldened rights activists have called for the military to hand power to a civilian government now rather than oversee a two year transition by military council, even if the men in brass claim they have no long term ambitions to cling to power.

Political prisoners were released as Bashir was being ousted but protesters vowed to continue pressuring authorities until their demands are met, sparking fears of further clashes with the military.

“The regime has conducted a military coup to reproduce the same faces and entities that our great people have revolted against,” declared the Sudanese professional association, an umbrella group of activists behind the protests, who vowed to carry on their movement.

Bashir was long condemned by the inter-national community for atrocities in Darfur and was shunned and barred from travel for years but seemed to be gradually enjoying more support lately despite the pariah status and losing South Sudan, notably among fellow Arab states, making a recent state visit to Syria.

The country’s economy was notably affected by the breaking off of South Sudan in 2004, taking with it a number of important oil installations. Runaway inflation and corruption also helped send the people to the streets, notably women and youth who have taken to the front lines of the street protest.

“This revolution belongs to the youth” one female protester said. Still observers regretted they were seeing in Sudan what they had seen in Algeria and even Kazakhstan, another country which had recently seen a longtime despot step aside, that is the people who had surrounded despised leaders staying very much in power.

But late last week protesters won another concession with the removal of the intelligence chief Salah Gosh, a highly influential figure who was seen as being responsible for the recent killing of protesters. But demonstrators say they are digging it to obtain change.

THE CHORE OF BREXIT

At the origins of the current populist surge was a single event, the referendum on Brexit. For years Britain had toyed with the idea of a referendum on the EU, not so much initially seeking to leave the Union as to renegotiate its relationship with it, but this would change under pressure from Britain’s Eurosceptics.

When the referendum results came in nearly three years ago they brought the downfall of a conservative leader who had fought for Britain to remain. Renegotiation had become a break from close economic ties, but perhaps this could be accomplished in, dare we say, an orderly fashion.

Former Home Secretary Theresa May, the second female prime minister Britain has known, would for the next years seek to formalize Britain’s formal departure, surviving votes of no confidence and a snap election in the process. She kept her post in part by promising not to run again, and showing a steely determination not unlike the Iron Lady’s, promised to resign if MPs passed her Brexit deal last week. "I am prepared to leave this job earlier than I intended in order to do what is right for our country and our party," she said. Instead opposition MPs called for her resignation after her third Brexit deal was defeated, setting a deadline for Britain to leave the EU without a deal on April 12 unless it either forges an 11th hour agreement or obtains another extension.

If a deal were to miraculously materialize, the deadline to leave would be extended to May 22. "I fear we have reached the limit of this process in this House," May said. "This House has rejected no deal, has rejected Brexit, it rejected all the variations of the deal on the table, and today it has rejected approving the withdrawal agreement."

A deal detailing the conditions of a break from Europe has eluded the 63 year old leader, suffering some the worst British parliamentary defeats in history, at one point her croaking voice, in her many Westminster interventions over a number of House of Commons votes, a testament to the never ending saga which has been an exercise in frustration and a test of endurance.

In recent weeks British lawmakers voted down the prime minister’s exit deals, said no to leaving the EU without one, and no to a second referendum. Not that any of this was truly binding. And perhaps could new elections be far away? It seemed that since Britons voted by a slim margin, and a bit of confusion, to leave the EU, their parliamentarians have not been able to say yes to anything, leading speaker John Bercow to bellow with great regularity "the nos have it!"

Given eight options to choose from varying from a customs union to a no-deal exit, MPs could not agree to a single one last week. They did agree however, twice - the last time by a single vote - to ask the EU to delay Brexit, pushing back the once sacrosanct March 29 deadline. Brussels agreed the first time on condition MPs endorse a Brexit deal by then, giving London until the eve of imminent EU elections to break away, demonstrating to what extent the Brexit process depends on Brussels and its EU partners.

The United Kingdom's seats have already been redistributed ahead of a EU vote expected to take place without Britain, many on the old continent clearly anxious to turn the page. To quote from one MP speaking to the BBC: "It's been absolute torture for everyone." With time in short supply to meet the deadlines, May conceded before putting it forward that her third plan would face defeat in parliament, prompting MPs to take over the agenda in an attempt to suggest alternatives, not that this accomplished anything. In the process more ministers quit their posts, joining the many others to have dropped out during the painstaking process.

In any event the EU was gearing up for the increasingly likely possibility of a Brexit without an exit deal, raising concerns about the implications for Northern Ireland, where hard borders were once a source of tensions. To avoid a new crisis in such a historically sensitive region, the U.K. would remain in a “temporary” customs union with the EU, with special allowances for Northern Ireland, a rare border separating the U.K. from the EU.

This would create differences between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K., hardly a preferred option for Brexit supporters, who seem to be losing momentum. Everything from a second referendum, an election, a hard Brexit, postponing it for an extended period of time or dropping it altogether at one point still seemed on the table, especially in light of an online petition to drop Brexit signed by 6 million Britons. But this week again parliamentarians rejected all four options being presented to them.

Of all the scenarios, one involving a no-deal Brexit caused the most concern, threatening to further lower the British pound and slash up to 80,000 jobs from the Irish economy, one which looked to suffer from Brexit no matter its form. As MPs geared up for new rounds of voting amid calls for opposition support and a further EU deadline extension, there was a sense Britons as well as Europeans we getting fed up of the ordeal.

Amid the bickering below a dozen naked protesters displayed their birthday suit in the House of Commons' galleries to draw attention to other urgent matters they said were being neglected by MPs. "We are being distracted by Brexit when we should be focusing on the ecological and climate crisis which is a threat to all of us," one participant said afterwards.

Like the now deceased leader of neighboring Uzbekistan, strongman Nursultan Nazar-bayev was first secretary of a former Soviet republic which has since broken off from Moscow and the only leader Kazakhstan has known, but unlike Islam Karimov however he stepped down before death took him, causing shock despite the imminence of his departure. Not that he will completely disappear from the political scene, far from it.

The 78 year old will remain chair of the influential security council and still lead the ruling party in the oil rich land-locked country surrounded by Russia and China. Just weeks earlier he had dismissed the government, unhappy with its inability to improve the country’s economy. He had also hinted his departure was near by seeking counsel on how to leave office.

Taking the helm in the meantime will be the speaker of the upper house of parliament, until the end of the current presidential term in March of 2020. As the first order of business interim President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ensured Nursultan's name would live on by issuing the order to change the name of the country's capital, Astana, to Nursultan, decades after it had been moved from the southeastern city of Almaty.

Lower oil prices have in part slowed growth in the central Asian country, but Nazar-bayev held his ministers responsible for the recent downturn. “In many areas of the economy, despite the adoption of many laws and government decisions, positi-ve changes have not been achieved,” he said upon sacking the government.

Changes have not been easy in the region, but some have followed the departure of post-Soviet strongmen, such as Karimov. To the surprise of many, successor Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who had served as prime minister under Karimov, has instituted a number of economic reforms seeking to modernize the economy and even allow for a few more freedoms, facilita-ting commerce between traditionally closed countries including Uzbekistan, Kyr-gyzstan and Tajikistan.

Not that the country is on the verge of developing an opposition or free media. Could Kazakhstan follow the same timid transition? Making it harder no doubt is the role the exiting strongman will keep wielding behind the scenes, his presence on the council alone enough to intimidate would be reformers.

Some observers note Nazarbayev’s departure offers one option for Russian leader Vladimir Putin to eventually leave his role, while maintaining some of the strings of power, but little suggested the strongman of Moscow was contemplating such a thing even as disgruntlement grew over the economy.

Putin in fact recently tightened his grip on society by signing a contro-versial bill that would make it a crime to exhibit blatant disrespect for government, as crackdowns on the opposition continued.

The murder of dozens of mosque worshippers last week took place in one of the world’s most peace loving nations, but half a world away populist leaders whose public discourses bordered on intolerance, from the U.S. and the U.K. to Hungary, were being fingered in the aftermath of New Zealand’s "darkest day".

A gunman entered two mosques in the city of Christchurch, a city so recently devastated by earthquake, killing 50 worshippers in cold blood and injuring 50 others, streaming his attack live on Facebook for 17 horrifying minutes.

His lengthy hate spewing manifesto praised Anders Breivik, who had himself published a white supremacist manifesto before bombing an area of Oslo and shooting dozens of youth at a summer camp in Norway in 2011.

Distances didn’t matter in the age of instant communications and social media, which were once again criticized for allowing both the manifesto to be published online and for the killing to be live streamed. A call to arms for white supremacists, the intended audience was in part American, the manifesto describing the act as a “terrorist attack” and a “partisan action against an occupying force", notably immigrants, seeking to “create conflict between the two ideologies within the United States in the ownership of firearms in order to further the social, cultural, political and racial divide.”

It also mentioned Dylan Roof, the Charleston church shooter, while the name of Alexandre Bissonnette, the Quebec City mosque shooter recently sentenced for killing six people, was inscribed on one of the weapons. This came as a shock to the Quebecer who said he regretted both his actions and being a point of reference in this attack.

The shooting was just the latest in a string of attacks on places of worship including last year’s synagogue attack in Pittsburgh which killed eleven. Although gun control laws were strengthened in New Zealand after one mass shooting in 1990 which killed 13, they were considered less stringent there than in most other Western countries with the exception of the U.S. But that wouldn't last very long.

Concerned the attacker obtained his five weapons, two of them semi-automatic, legally, prime minister Jacinda Ardern immediately set out to restrict gun laws. This week she announced legislation expected to be in place by April 11 would ban all types of semi-automatic weapons and assault rifles.

"Our history changed forever," she said. "Now our laws will too." Police around the world had added protection to mosques, Ottawa police warning about the possibility of copycat attacks. Choosing peaceful and isolated New Zealand to stage the attack was no coincidence according to the manifesto, which sought to show no country was safe.

The suspects shared “extremist views that have absolutely no place in New Zealand and in fact have no place in the world,” said Ardern. Of course the horrific act did nothing to prevent the propagation of yet more hate online or even in highly sensitive statements by public officials.

One Australian senator said that while he deplored the act of one of his countrymen, he hoped it would draw attention to “the growing fear... of the increasing Muslim presence” in the region, drawing criticism from observers who note this sort of speech in the public arena has only fuelled the flames of division and hatred at a time white supremacist discourse has grown across the world along with the number of anti-Semitic attacks.

As the gun laws were being announced counter-terrorism police in England were looking into five attacks against mosques in Birmingham in what local Muslims feared was yet more far-right extremist violence.

THE BALKNS STIR

While France’s yellow vests and Britain’s Brexit are causing commotions in northern Europe, further south the Balkans have also been percolating in ways unseen in years, masses protesting against corruption and in many instances asking their leaders to step down. In Montenegro thousands have been descending to the streets asking for president Milo Djukanovic to step aside over accusations of abuse of power and corruption. The c word is also the theme of demonstrations in Albania, while in Serbia marchers have been coming out for weeks to denounce what they call president Aleksandar Vucic’s increasingly auto-cratic rule, the largest manifestations of the sort since Slobodan Milosevic was ousted nearly 20 years ago. In Croatia meanwhile rallies by journalists have denounced what they call censorship campaigns after a wave of lawsuits filed against them. The Balkans are known for their explosive nature, and thankfully so far the movements have been peaceful, an encouraging trademark considering recent history. Djukanovic, who has dominated politics in the recently created county’s politics for decades, notably ended Serbia-Montenegro unity in a 2006 independence referendum. aspiring EU members both countries have been pressed to tackle corruption and nepotism head on to join the union, a tall order for the former Communist lands. Their leaders are now facing calls by protestors to step down amid of wave of demonstrations across what used to be Yugoslavia. Small NATO member Montenegro, with a population of 620,000, is also seeing calls for its prime minister, Dusko Markovic, and a state prosecutor, to leave. In Serbia protests began in early December after an opposition politician was beat up by a group of men. Vucic has resisted calls to resign “even if there were 5 million of you”, inspiring the slogan "One of 5 million" and has been facing calls for fair elections and an end to tight controls over state media. Media freedom is also of concern in neighboring Croatia where journalists say the more than 1,000 lawsuits filed against them amounts to an attempt to silence their reporting. But the former Yugoslav federation is not alone facing these revolts. In Albania protests became violent in February when demonstra-tors called for the resignation of the cabinet; the organizing opposition deploring the “narco government” in place and calling for representatives not “captured by crime.” The small Adriatic country also hopes to join the EU but it has been told to do more about organized crime and corruption, issues also raised in the case of another former Yugoslav republic hoping to join the union, Macedonia. France and Holland agree both countries need to fight corruption and reform judicial institutions in order to be considered for membership but there’s fear not letting them join the EU could spark a new war in the Balkans. Albania ranks 99th out of 180 countries tracked by monitoring group Transparency International, slightly worse than Kosovo and Macedonia (93rd). Montenegro and Croatia fare less poorly (67th, the same as Greece, and 60th) in the region with the lowest transparency scores in Europe and incidentally where the next candidates waiting in the wings for EU membership can be found. But when the opportunity presented itself to clean house at the polls, such as last weekend in Slovakia, that's exactly what electors did, choosing a female anti-corruption lawyer.

ASIAN TENSIONS

While a second nuclear summit on North Korea was seeking to promote peace in that part of Eastern Asia, the subcontinent was heating up after Indian fighter jets struck targets in Pakistan and were then shot down following a terror attack which killed dozens in disputed Kashmir, a flash point region claimed by the two rival nuclear powers.

India has long accused its neighbor of allowing militant groups targeting Kashmir to flourish in Pakistan, and orchestrated the strike during a competitive election cam-paign after the suicide attack killed 40 Indian troops on Valentine’s Day. The air strike was the first across the sensitive line of control since the war between the two countries which went on to create Bangladesh in 1971.

“Credible intel was received that (militant group Jaish-e Mohammad) was planning more suicide attacks in India,” Indian foreign minister Vijay Gokhale said. “In the face of imminent danger a pre-emptive strike became absolutely neces-sary.”

Pakistan says the strike did little damage in a largely empty area. Facing the most serious challenge to his young leadership, Pakistan’s Imran Khan said the “Indian government has resorted to self serving, reckless and ficticious claim... for domestic consumption, being in an election environment, putting regional and stability at grave risk,” and rushed to calm tensions by handing over one Indian pilot whose plane was shot down as a "gesture of peace".

Would this help calm tensions between the two nuclear superpowers? India's foreign minister for one said Islamabad had not done India "any favors" by returning the pilot and observers weren't immediately sure about the prospects for peace after days of street rallies on both sides of the border whipped by nationalist frenzy.

More deadly fire exchange across the line of control was recorded the day of the pilot's handover. In addition a statement attributed to the pilot upon his release raised controversy, thanking Pakistani troops for having "saved" him, and criticizing the Indian media for stretching the truth and presenting events "in a very incendiary manner and people get misled."

Even before the Indian air strike Khan had asked Delhi to “give peace a chance”, adding that if India managed to demonstrate the militant group’s implication in the terror attack in Kashmir Islamabad would “immediately act.” This week Pakistani authorities announced they arrested dozens of suspects of the group, including the brother of leader Massod Azhar.

Islamabad also said it was going after the assets of militant groups operating within its borders. In full election mode, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi had recently called on Pakistan to join forces in the fight against poverty, showing the cold-lukewarm nature of the relationship after a history which had thrice since partition led to war, twice over Kashmir. With an election on the horizon in the world's largest democracy Delhi's air offensive upped the ante in a flash zone which has grown more turbulent over the years.

The killing of an Islamic militant leader by Indian forces in 2016 had provoked violent protests resulting in dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries. With a campaign in full swing back home but a sluggish economy threatening Modi's grip on power, Delhi was eager to make a demonstration of strength on a continent where it is furiously engaged in a duel of influence with China, Beijing in recent years seeking to translate economic might with big power influence.

The Chinese giant was however, like many in the West, appealing for calm in the midst of the crisis. "China's message is clear to both sides: exercise restraint," Han Hua, professor and South Asia studies expert at Peking University, told CNN. "China's interest lies in the stability of South Asia."

Domestically, observers note the incident had deflected attention previously focused on India's unemployment woes and rural disgruntlement despite growth remaining around 7% during the Modi years. Some even recorded an upward tick in the Indian prime minister's popularity, so long as the crisis didn't lead to war, which remained a consuming fear.

Back on the campaign Modi wasted no time trying to score political points, saying criticizing Indian handling of the crisis was tantamount to siding with Pakistan. “The world is supporting India’s fight against terror but a few parties suspect our fight against terror,” he said. "Such statements are helping Pakistan and harming India . . . I want to ask them: Do you support our armed forces or suspect them?”

While political rhetoric promised to keep tensions high, there was a relative lull in hostilities this week, and observers were giving some of the countries' youth credit for countering the violent vitriol with an online campaign to bring relative peace to the charged up region. But tensions remained high, Pakistan claiming it intercepted an Indian submarine seeking to enter its waters, citing a "series of proactive actions against Pakistan", a claim denied by Delhi.

But for all the tensions persisting in Asia and various parts of the world, the actual number of people killed in conflicts is going down according to experts from Norway’s Peace Research Institute. Research director Havard Nygard said the Korean War, which has technically not ended, was possibly a breaking point on this. “The wars after the (1950-53) Korean wars killed a quarter as many people as the wars before.” The latest Korean summit yielded no breakthrough, nor did it spark new tensions, leaving the entire region in a stalemate.

Within seconds the severity of the accusations were rocking the political establishments on both sides of the border, on the same day. On Parliament Hill in Ottawa, former attorney general Jody Wilson Raybould had broken her silence in a long expected testimony at the Justice committee looking into accusations officials had pressured her to inappropriately interfere in the prosecution of Quebec engineering firm SNC Lavalin.

In Washington meanwhile, the jail-bound former attorney of the U.S. president came out swinging by calling Donald Trump a cheat, a conman and racist, accusing him of campaign violations and stressing prosecutors were looking into charges against Trump.

The nature of certain instructions he had been given by the president were “the kind of things you see in mob cases,” he said. While the testimony was unprece-dented in terms of targeting a sitting president, Republi-cans wondered why Michael Cohen, who pleaded guilty to a number of charges including campaign finance violations, bank and tax fraud, could be trusted after a record of uttering falsehoods.

Canada’s besieged Liberals similarly refuted Wilson-Raybould’s charge she experienced “a consistent and sustained effort by many people within the government to seek to politically interfere in the exercise of prosecutorial discretion” in her role, adding she encountered veiled threats from some quarters.

But within hours the opposition was calling for the prime minister’s resignation, or at least a police investigation into the allega-tions, all this after the resignation of Trudeau’s closest advisor and as polls were showing the issue was dragging the Liberals down eight months before an election.

With Quebec, where the Liberals had just gained a new seat, looming as the battleground to secure a new mandate in the fall, the party in power reiterated it would keep defending jobs a priority amid fears SNC's legal woes could mean thousands of lost jobs and Montreal possibly losing its headquarters.

But critics wondered whether too much was being sacrificed in the process. Columnist Richard Martineau opined that while Wilson-Raybould's testimony amounted to a nuclear bomb going off, he noted “Justin needs votes in Quebec to win the next election and here in Quebec he knows we like our champions, even if they build prisons for blood thirsty dictators and pay hookers for their sons to get a contract,” a reference to an explosive article detailing sex parties SNC had paid for Moammar Khadafi's son to secure Libyan contracts.

The controversy was no laughing matter for a prime minister who in single instance seemed to be losing claims of championing transparency, native reconcili-ation, and a feminist agenda, all the while further antagonizing a West seeing how far he was willing to go to bat for Quebec while stalling on pipelines.

The charge of political interference already eroded Canada’s central narrative over the arrest of a Huawei executive, causing tensions with China, and left Ottawa facing accusations which had until now dogged the U.S. administration. In fact this week a U.S. house committee was gathering documents alleging obstruction of justice against the U.S. president.

The crisis in Ottawa also seemed to be dividing the Liberals ahead of an election, giving new hopes to rivals that included an NDP previously unsure about its leader. This week another bombshell rocked Ottawa when cabinet minister Jane Philpott in turn announced her resignation, citing a loss of confidence in how the SNC issue was handled by Trudeau.

She was applauded by Liberal MP Celia Chavannes, who had already said she would not be running again in October. “Her testimony was both detailed and credible, she also implicated a lot of people from top to advisers and the most powerful civil servant in the country to the prime minister and finance minister,” said McGill expert Daniel Béland.

In a poll half of respondents said the affair would influence their vote in the fall. While the Liberals were hoping the issue would go away during a two week parliamen-tary break, Philpott's resi-gnation and a cover of Maclean's portraying Trudeau as "the imposter" kept the issue very much in the spotlight while the Justice committee continued its work.

In an attempt to bring an end to the fireworks Trudeau took responsibility for the "erosion of trust" which had developed in cabinet, but offered no apology. Opponents said this wasn't enough. For once the political craziness didn't come from the expected southern side of the border.

NIGERIA RE-ELECTS BUHARI

This is not the first time elections in Nigeria were delayed. If anything such postponement is becoming a regular occurrence, only heralding the challenges in store for the president and parliamentarians being chosen to lead the giant of Africa. Days before the original Feb. 16 date at the polls, attacks targeted electoral offices, destroying voter cards and ballot boxes as campaign violence added to organizational woes forcing officials to push back the election for a week. This was the least of challenges in a country where northeast border regions still face the menace of Boko Haram, which has spread its tentacles across the region in time.

On election day multiple bomb blasts targeted the restive north of the country anew, days after a terror group linked to ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack against a state governor, who escaped unscathed. Added to the Islamist threat in the last year has been a rise in sectarian violence in the center of the country which has in fact over time grown bloodier than anything tied to the jihadists.

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data which monitors such violence, the predomi-nantly Muslim Fulani nomadic group multiplied its violent activities in 2018, causing 66 clashes, an increase of 260% from the previous year - making it the country’s “most lethal actor.” This led to reprisals killing over 100 in recent weeks.

The group’s attack on farmers in Nigeria’s middle belt are “more practical than ideological,” the monitoring group says, a fight over grazing land at a time of seasonal problems amid farming communities. Such agricultural competition is no laughing matter on a continent where violence over cattle had sparked bloody clashes in South Sudan.

The intensity of the violence in Nigeria, where a single Fulani attack in June was said of killing 200, was possibly sparked by new government regulations last year. While this violence may have killed some 2,000 people last year, six times more than Boko Haram, the Islamist group's continuing clashes have made the crisis in the north a main focus of the election along with corruption and the sluggish economy.

Recent attacks in the border region of Lake Chad have sent residents fleeing throughout the region, affecting not only Nigeria but neighboring Chad, Cameroon and Niger. In February alone some 35,000 people fled areas of the restive Borno state, many streaming into Cameroon according to the United Nations. “We could hear gunshots behind us,” said Fanne Gambo recalling how she fled the scene of an attack. “I did not really see what was happening I only saw corpses lying here and there.”

But corruption was also top of mind in a country of great income disparities, especially considering the promises made by incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, dubbed "Mr. Honesty" by his supporters during his 2015 election. Transparency Inter-national noted little progress during the years of the current presidency, the country sitting 144th in its Corruption Perception Index, as none of the many well intended corruption cases launched by the Buhari administration have so far ended in conviction.

A former secretary accused of diverting hundreds of thousands of dollars for victims of Boko Haram did lose his job but could still be found campaigning for Buhari in his home state. Another man, whose re-election as governor has been endorsed by Buhari, Abdullahi Ganduje, has been unhelpful to the anti corruption campaign to say the least, having been filmed accepting bribes for government contracts. Addi-tionally it wasn't entirely clear how up to $1 billion taken from Nigeria's crude excess account to fund the fight against Boko Haram was allocated, tying together the two greatest ills striking Nigeria, corruption and jihadism.

Buhari has also raised eyebrows by suspending Nigeria’s top judge weeks before the election, despite the latter's record settling electoral disputes in the past. This sparked protests and strikes by the bar association while opposition candidate and former vice president Atiku Abubakar accused Buhari of completing an “act of dictatorship.” Buhari has in fact often been accused of sacrificing judicial indepen-dence and process on the altar of his anti-corruption drive, which critics say has yielded few results.

African leaders made 2018 the year against corruption and Transparency International did praise some of the measures taken by Buhari in his first years, such as creating a consultative committee on corruption close to the presidency and developing a national anti corruption strategy, but “these efforts have manifestly not produced the anticipated results, at least yet,” the group wrote.

By one account over $37 billion has been transfered by corrupted officials to London in a period of two years. But for all his indignation about corruption in Nigeria, rival Atiku is hardly Mr. transparent, having faced multiple corruption allegations against him, including claims he diverted $125 million of public funds to his own businesses.

With results too close to call, would either of these leading (septuagenarian) candidates find the strength to stir the country of 190 million in the right direction, after a rare recession and unemployment reaching 23%? As they nervously awaited results, Nigerians deplored the violence and vote snafus and wondered if electronic voting could come soon enough.

HAITI IN CRISIS

First there was that terrible earthquake nearly a decade ago, reducing large parts of Port-au-Prince and other communities of the island to rubble and overwhelming already strained resources in a country regularly receiving international aid.

Years later the residents of Haiti were seeing little improvement, struggling to get by day to day with few job prospects and high inflation, when Hurricane Maria further demolished Haiti. Now nearly two thirds of Haitians live under the national poverty line in what is the poorest country per capita in the Americas, a quarter living in extreme poverty, earning under $1.25 a day.

When a report in January blamed officials both past and present in the misappropriation of billions of dollars in Venezuelan development loans people took to the streets in large numbers asking for Jovenel Moise’s head, two years after his election as president.

Protests have since degenerated into riots causing half a dozen deaths as ill equipped police struggled to keep demon-strators away from the president’s home in the well off neighbourhood of Petion Ville. A number of countries have since called on their citizens to leave Haiti, some removing non essential personnel as Moise remained barricaded in his home.

After days of silence, the president addressed his countrymen saying economic measures would be announced to try to alleviate the crisis, but refused to step down, which he said would leave the country "in the hands of gangs and drug traffickers", a statement which in no way defused the situation.

Some shop keepers targeted by looters during the disturbances reviewed the damage with philosophy. “What we are enduring today is because of Jovenel... they are hungry,” commented one of them amid the chaos. “We don’t have good leaders : if there was work in the country this would never have happened.”

A breakdown in law in order enabled dozens of inmates to escape from one prison while hospitals reduced services because they were able to provide neither the necessary staffing nor a safe environment. “In these troubled times we are losing track of the injured,” decried one health official interviewed by Le Nouvelliste. “This is when staff should be available and safety guaranteed.”

As protests intensified with the erection of barricades across the country, preventing some Western volunteers and vacationgoers from reaching the airport, hospital associations reported critical shortages of everything from electricity and oxygen to medicine, food and water.

The country has seen protests drag on for months, reaching a fever pitch last year when the government tried to eliminate fuel subsidies but was forced to change course. The latest spark was caused by the report on the Petrocaribe deal's missing funds, which Moise said would be the subject of an investigation.

But the rule of law seemed in question amid Haiti’s latest crisis and even the president's allies, such as former prime minister Paul Evans, hinted a change of leadership may be what’s best for the struggling nation. “The country is adrift, if the president doesn’t manage anything it's best he left.”

Then again “who would replace him?” He went on. “What is important today isn’t the mandate of Jovenel Moise but finding a way to end the instability in the country,” adding he found the opposition unable to propose any viable alternatives. According to political commentator Antoine Lyonel Trouillot, the current situation was a long time coming.

“Who hadn’t heard that the personal use of power, corruption, repeated injustices and social inequalities led straight to insurrection?” He opined. “No diplomat thought of telling them they should listen to what Haitians have been saying for a long time.”

In a country where democracy has been put on life support and home to a weakened populace wracked by malnutrition, poverty and despair, a dictatorial state apparatus has all the reasons to bank on the hopes the people will be too weak to rise against it.

But after years of crisis, hyper inflation, rationing and shortages of everything from medicine to food, thousands of Vene-zuelans are still managing to find something else becoming a scarcity in the struggling country, strength, by choosing to rise and protest against Nicolas Maduro’s disastrous policies, his legacy in no time surpassing in hardship what was experienced under Hugo Chavez.

Some may in hindsight see those as the good old days, Venezuela's short-lived golden era before the deep dive into darkness and chaos. Opposition to the strongman's rule was re-energized after Maduro was sworn into a new six year term in January, despite elections condemned around the world as fraudulent because they excluded top opposition leaders.

As a result a number of countries refused to recognize Maduro as the head of state, some going a step further by backing the man who declared himself interim president and managed to unite the country's fractured opposition, the 35 year old speaker of the national assembly Juan Guaido, who launched protests calling for the military to abandon Maduro. Disgruntlement amid the rank and file has been growing after a series of suspected small-scale insurgencies and plots against Maduro. But for now the military brass is holding firm, leaving the country divided by two people with claims to the presidency.

Guaido's rise was sudden and dramatic consi-dering the young parliamen-tarian was little known before he was chosen to head the assembly, where Chavistas now form a minority. But quiet diplomacy abroad had made sure his declaration would find international support. “The silence with which the year started will become a roar of freedom, democracy and strength without precedent,” declared Guaido. “We are all here in the same boat without electricity, without water, without medicines, without gas and with an uncertain future.”

Guaido said he was willing to take up the challenge to lead the nation but with the support of the army, which had been instrumental in previous crack downs of protesters. Painful memories linger from the bloody events in 2017 which had killed dozens. This year riots swept across the chaotic country even before the latest string of protests and counter protests began. According to the U.N. 40 people were killed including 26 by pro-government forces and hundreds, including children, have been detained.

This weekend as competing protests and counter protests marked the 20th anniversary of the Chavista revolution, an air force general broke ranks to declare his support for Guaido, adding "the transition to democracy is imminent." Days later the Lima group meeting in Ottawa reiterated calls for the military, where desertion has been on the rise, to back Guaido. The latter promised amnesty to soldiers who dropped Maduro, before hinting he could extend this to Maduro himself if he stepped down. The chaos in Venezuela over the years has sent millions fleeing the country to neighboring nations, causing a refugee crisis at its borders.

The recognition of Guaido as interim president by a number of countries including Canada and the U.S. was condemned by Maduro, who has accused Washington of plotting to overthrow him for years. He initially gave all U.S. diplomats 72 hours to leave the country before changing his mind. Divisions were deepening domestically as the military accused the opposition of staging a coup d'etat and a number of countries including Russia, China and Cuba backed Maduro, giving him the lifeline to hang on to power.

Disagreement over Venezuela heightened tensions with Moscow at a time Washington said it was backing out of a 30-year-old nuclear treaty it blamed Russia of violating. Washington doubled down on its support for Guaido, declaring Maduro's rule "illegitimate" but denying it planned to send soldiers to remove him from power, as had been done with Manuel Noriega in Panama. Controversy did surround a photo showing White House security adviser John Bolton holding a note pad with the hand written notes "5,000 troops to Colombia", a neighbor of Venezuela.

The White House however maintains no options are off the table to rid Venezuela of Maduro, but while some international critics said any military option was premature Guaido himself refused to rule out U.S. military support in an interview. Even short of such an intervention some observers point out bold declarations by outside powers, in a region where they have been so interventionist in the previous century, undermine the sovereignty of nations.

"In the case of Venezuela, the claim to the presidency by the opposition leader is uniquely thin," noted Arnd Jurgensen, a political scientist from the University of Toronto. "For the most part, for a country not to recognize the existing government is in many ways an interference in their own sovereign independence," he added. This week after giving Maduro a deadline to call early presidential elections, a number of European countries such as France, Britain and Germany joined others who had declared Guaido the interim president.

The United States meanwhile slapped new sanctions against the regime, looking to seize Caracas' foreign assets to prevent Maduro from hanging on to power and bolster Guaido instead. As the opposition prepared to bring relief to millions by planning the distribution of millions of dollars' worth of much needed food and medicine, aid agencies expressed fears these huma-nitarian gestures could be used as political weapons in the highly divisive atmosphere. Days later, claiming it feared a foreign invasion, the military moved to block the border to prevent such aid from coming in, a despicable act critics said only bolstered the case against Maduro.

BASHIR'S BIGGEST TEST

Protests over food prices have been a regular occurrence in Sudan these last few years, but this year's demonstrations swelled nota-bly before evolving into calls for the removal of strongman and war crimes suspect Omar Bashir, in power for some 30 years.

As in Venezuela the army has stood behind the condemned leader, vowing not to “allow the Sudanese state to fall or slide into the unknown,” but Bashir, a 75 year old former paratrooper, himself hinted he could relinquish power, if only to another soldier or after a call to the polls. It was a slight variation from the usual dismissal of the people’s plights in the North African country which has been suffering from drought and a sliding economy.

The military stepped up its crackdown of protests and detained opposition leader Sadiq al-Mahdi , some 1000 people having been arrested in the course of the clampdowns. Mahdi’s return to the country following a year in exile in December triggered the latest round of protests. “This regime has to go immediately,” he recently told supporters.

The country has largely been spared the Arab Spring revolts and Bashir views the current demonstrations as an attempt to bring the movement to Sudan, accusing outside powers of being behind them. As during the Arab Spring opponents have been organizing rallies through social media , leading Bashir to ridicule them.

“Changing the government cannot be done through Whats-app or Facebook,” he said despite the mobilizing strength of such platforms. “It can be done only through elections.” Khartoum has been seeking international help dealing with its current economic crisis.

The country has devalued its currency a number of times last year and faces inflation nearing 70%. The protests, sparked by cuts to food subsidies and higher living costs, are posing the greatest challenge to his rule since the 1989 coup which ushered him into power and have left dozens dead.

While the U.S. lifted sanctions against the country in 2017 Sudan has seen its revenues plunge since South Sudan’s separation in 2011, tearing a large portion of its oil fields along with it. Bashir has since tried to foster better ties with countries such as the Gulf states and Iran, becoming the first state leader to visit Syria since that country’s war started in 2011.

As the protests linger, they are becoming more violent, and the absence of political dialogue is steering the crisis into dangerous territory according to a Stratfor intelligence analysis. "The very absence of meaningful dialogue between protest leaders and al Bashir's government indicates that the unrest will not end quickly or peacefully," it notes. "The government in Khartoum has been heavy-handed histo-rically when maintaning public order but the stick doesn't appear to be working this time around.

Neither, however, are economic promises, appeals to Islamist sentiments or attempts to exploit ethnic and religious differences. The protests have endured and have now grown into the most difficult civic challenge that al Bashir has yet faced."

And this may in part be due to a broken promise. Bashir was supposed to end his rule next year but has been nominated to run in next years's elections. This has amplified protests which have gone from decrying high bread prices to condemning the regime.

A unifying opposition agreed on a Declaration of Freedom and Change in early January which included demands that Bashir relinquish power. Rallies have continued since, supporting detainees after the death in custody of an arrested teacher.

A bad boy of the European Union who has had his fingers rapped by Brussels over restrictive immigration policies, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been facing street protests after changing labour laws which, ironically, would not have been necessary if the country had a more open door policy.

Thousands have been taking to the streets for weeks, blocking access to Budapest’s iconic legislature in usually peaceful Hungary after the introduction of a so-called “slave law” allowing employers to demand more overtime from their employees, a solution considered in view of worker shortages in the Central European country of just under 10 million.

Public broadcasters toeing the party line after Orban reorganized the media industry following his re-election were also targeted by the demon-strators, led by opposition MPs. Journalist Benjamin Novak said state media was “making no mention of their presence or demands” when they showed up at state media headquarters in December.

The demonstrations, rare mass rallies gathering thousands, have also called for an independent media and judiciary and morphed into a protest against Orban’s increasingly autocratic presidency, reinforced by his party’s majority.

“Vik-ta-tor!” participants yelled. “I protest because our parents left a free and democratic country for us in 1990 and now we are their age and we are learning again how to fear,” a participant told CNN. “They stole our past and the future of our children... my beloved country lost its freedom.”

The movement, led by unions and students, comes as the country is enjoying the lowest unemployment rate in the EU, some 4.2%, an issue itself in view of Hungary’s declining and aging population leaving many jobs unfilled.

While immigration would seem like a way to assist Budapest gathering necessary skilled labor it has closed its doors on non-EU migrants and is experiencing a brain drain of nationals drawn by other European countries. Efforts to lure back expats have failed while the government has pinned the blame on the protests on a familiar target, billionaire philanthropist George Soros, whose Central European university was forced to move to Vienna, bringing with it jobs and brains.

Hungarians had also taken to the streets against Orban in 2014 and 2016 but observers note a variety of participants are turning out this time, from far right members of Jobbik to left wing militants, not unlike the eclectic mix protesting Macron in France. Oddly this unity was missing during last spring’s election, allowing Orban's Fidesz party to sweep the polls.

That was Orban's third consecutive landslide win and he is not letting the protests drag him down. If anything the Hungarian leader is looking to expand his influence in the Balkans, according to Sonja Stojanovic of the Belgrade centre for security policy. “He is expanding his influence also through the economic sphere. You can see a recipe for capturing the state and for authoritarian rule.”

Like a regional version of China, economically sound Hungary has been investing in surrounding countries through government friendly compa-nies from gas stations in Slovenia and Slovakia, to football interests in Romania and Serbia. Orban is also uniting like-minded anti-immigrant allies at the European polls, political scientist Zarko Puhovski tells Bloomberg.

“Orban is also seeking to cement his position for future fights in the European Union.” After a small break over the holidays, protesters were back in the streets last week amid calls for a general strike.

The complexity of the mosaic of participants in the Syrian conflict became immediately apparent following the announcement in December the U.S. intended to pull its troops from the country. While the number of boots that would leave, some 2,000, seemed insignificant, the symbolism of the expected move was enough to send shockwaves in the region and beyond, provoking cheers in some quarters, and fear in others, amid whispers of betrayal.

Adding to the confusion, as had been the staple of the current U.S. administration, has been the footwork suggesting some back tracking on the announcement, first described as imminent. “The decision was a total surprise, but not the fact that America changed policy,” noted one minister. “This is the fifth or sixth shift in America’s position on Syria.”

As America’s own officials, let alone allies, scrambled to comprehend the ramification and timeline of the exit, all this seemed very much in the air. Adding to the uncertainty was Washington’s search for reassurances its Kurdish allies in the fight in Syria, so instrumental to the defeat of Daesh, would be unharmed by Turkish forces accusing them of terrorism.

It became immediately clear this would not be acceptable to Ankara, leading president Erdogan to remove the welcome mat from under America’s visiting secretary of state. The Turkish president in fact asked the U.S. to turn over its bases in Syria, while Kurds, once discriminated against and victimized by Assad's regime, sought a deal with the Syrian president to obtain protection.

The White House has increasingly been counting on coalition partners, such as Turkey, to take on the burden of fighting in Syria, eyeing a draw down of forces and overall military retrenchment around the world. Exposing Syria’s Kurds to Turkey's wrath did not go down well amid the U.S. military brass either, Secretary of Defense Gen. James Mattis leaving his post soon after the announcement, asking staff to “keep the faith in our country and hold fast, alongside our allies, aligned against our foes.”

Mattis had been a vocal defender of the U.S. military presence in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, where with-drawal plans were also being revised, and opposed the U.S. president's plans to develop a space force and send troops to the Mexican border. His chief of staff soon also stepped down, as did the top U.S. envoy on the anti-IS coalition. Less moved by all this was Syrian leader Bashar Assad, so frail just a few months ago and now regaining control of his country and stature in the region.

In December Damascus received the first visit by a head of state, the no less controversial Omar Bashir of Sudan, days before the United Arab Emirates reopened their embassy in Syria. Arab states were also discussing the possibility of inviting the once pariahed leader to a coming summit. These countries were no doubt wary non-Arab players were holding key positions of influence in the country, from Russia to Iran. The latter has been instrumental fighting Daesh on the ground and Washington’s allies, parti-cularly Israel, were wary of Tehran’s influence in a fractured Syria.

Both Russia and Iran have recently been the source of renewed tensions with the U.S. after the arrest of American citizens in those countries. While there are U.S. troops in nearby Iraq, which could be pulled in if operations were warranted in the future in Syria, observers say the main argument for withdrawal, victory over IS, left to be desired, some estimates leaving as many as 30000 of its fighters in both Iran and Iraq despite the coalition’s battlefield successes.

For one, as al-Qaida before, IS is far from being defeated as an ideology, inspiring offshoots both in the region and elsewhere, as far as Indonesia and among jihadist in Africa. Of course their defeat in Syria, where they once held a territory home to some 6 million people, was notable, but not complete. This was reminded this week when an attack claimed by IS killed a dozen people including four Americans.

Despite the remaining pockets and the confusion about a definite exit timeline, military materiel was already being moved out of Syria according to reports. During a stop in Cairo, Sec. of State Mike Pompeo noted the fight against IS would not stop and would carry on despite a withdrawal from Syria.

But the U.S. administration is failing to see the bigger picture of this withdrawal beyond the Islamic State, notes Site intelligence group director Rita Katz: “Assad now has one less check against his war crimes, regional influence has been handed down to Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, and abandoning Kurds sends a message to other potential allies the U.S. will abandon you at the drop of a dime,” a message resonating in Afghanistan where America's own military officials were trying to reassure allies the U.S. would be there to support them.

The Kurdish issue was enough to raise tensions betwen Turkey and the United States to new heights, the U.S. president threatening to "devastate" its NATO ally economically if Ankara attacked the minority, something sure to touch a nerve as the economic crisis has become the number one issue of concern to everyday Turks, surpassing terrorism. A plunging lira and high inflation have hit particularly hard last year after U.S. tariffs went into effect.

The threat was met with outrage by Turkish officials Erdogan's spokesman saying Ankara would maintain its course: "Terror is terror and it must be eradicated at its source. This is exactly what Turkey is doing in Syria." Both countries were discussing creating a safe zone in the region, an idea supported by some but not all

Forty years later there was no mistake, assured a leader whose status has been elevated to something akin to the great chairman’s, China was on the right path, the only path, embracing state capitalism under the guidance of the Communist party which was all knowing and would take no lessons from Western powers on the economy or anything else, like corporate spying or sending millions of citizens to re-education camps.

The speech by Xi Jinping served as a warning to Western rivals at a time of frayed relations with the U.S. and Canada but, he assured, China would not seek to become a global hegemon. Yet its construction of a global belt and road initiative creating rising debt in third world countries and growing influence and investment in richer ones made no doubt of the middle power's global ambitions beyond an increasingly militarized immediate region.

Beijing’s development of artificial islands in the South China Sea and increasingly aggressive stance near strategic regions such as the North Korean border, where its fighters buzzed a Canadian surveillance plane last month monitoring the embargo on Pyongyang, signalled a projection of absolute power in its near abroad while developing global influence all the way to Africa.

On the often forgotten continent Beijing has all but sought to replace the former colonial masters with much needed investment which, as elsewhere along the belt road, has left poor governments indebted to China, sometimes trading off dues for hard and strategic infrastructure. Even in slightly more well to do Canada, Chinese giant Huawei, whose founder was a top technologist in the People’s Liberation Army, has stepped in to fill a void left behind by the disappearance of former giant Nortel, leading key efforts to develop domestic G5 cell networks, something that has been the subject of concern to Ottawa’s intelligence allies, spreading alarms about Beijing’s spying capabilities.

It was in this context of security concerns that the arrest of a Huawei executive during a Vancouver airport transfer upset relations between top trading partner China, Canada and the U.S., which wanted Meng Wanzhou arrested on suspicion of violating the embargo on Iran. The arrest of two Canadians in China shortly after, including a former diplomat, was quickly seen as a retaliation for Weng’s arrest, after warnings by Beijing failing to release her would have serious consequences.

The warning illustrated the close ties binding the regime to global companies playing no small share in projecting Beijing’s influence across the planet. That is also being supported by the development of China’s digital Silk Road which involves selling surveillance goods across the world. In some 100 cities worldwide that includes letting the world’s largest telecom company, Huawei, install countless cameras as part of its “safe cities” project to help fight crime that observers say could also be used for electronic surveillance.

As the Huawei court case was going on and the U.S. and China were seeing trade tensions rise, the FBI charged two Chinese citizens from a company tied to China’s security apparatus with stealing trade secrets from U.S. agencies, as well as American and other interna-tional companies including some from Canada, Japan and Europe. “No country poses a broader more severe long term threat to the U.S. security and economy than China,” U.S. official said.

This followed indictments of 10 Chinese intelligence officers and hackers tied to the same Chinese ministry in October targeting airline engine technology in France and the U.S. and the arrest of a member of that ministry in a sting set up in Belgium. This sort of spying isn’t new says Penn state lecturer and former CIA staffer Nicholas Eftimiades in The Diplomat “The problem is that these recent indictments and arrests are only two among hundreds if not thousands of cases,” as these growing activities “support a national concerted effort to expand China’s economic and security interests” impacting other economies.

Eftimiades says Jinping has directed all state owned enterprises to ensure service to the Communist party and that national and economic security are placed above profit, highlighting a recent U.S. report finding “China's espionage activities continue unabated despite a larger number of arrests, public exposure and most recently U.S. trade sanctions”. In fact the report said China “is unlikely to curb its espionage efforts as they provide a cost efficient means to expand the economy, advance research and development, project military power and meet China's stated goal to become a world power,” even if it does not reach the level of hegemon.

Still the U.S. says China’s efforts are trying to replace the US as dominant superpower and using illegal means to do this. But it may not even require this in the future. By some accounts China is winning the tech education war, graduating twice as many university students as the U.S. every year and five times more in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math.

While world domination may not be the stated goal, China is certainly tightening the grip on its immediate region, starting off the new year testing the will of the international community to defend Taiwan's sovereignty by declaring the island "must and will be reunited with China," not excluding the use of force at a time the American protector is less willing to intervene abroad and planning to remove its own soldiers posted overseas.

THE LONG RECOVERY

Paradise destinations often find themselves paying for the privilege of yearly warm weather and sandy beaches. Battered regularly by devastating hurricanes they have also over time endured volcanic eruptions razing areas from Montserrat to Martinique and powerful earthquakes.

Fort de France’s cathedral, rebuilt many times over after successive natural disasters, is a symbol of perseverance over nature’s wrath. But rebuilding can be tough in less wealthy countries such as Cuba or Dominica, where the devastation of the 2017 hurricane season which created carnage from Anguilla to Puerto Rico is still quite visible and for months kept the island of 73,000 out of the income generating cruise tourist circuit at its greatest time of need.

Dilapidated homes and roofless chuches still dot the countryside near the capital Roseau, owing to the lack of funds and need to get much building material shipped from other islands. If it seems like there’s a dark cloud hanging over the island that’s because there usually is. The rain forest covers much of Dominica and drops can start coming down, sometimes quite hard, as if a switch had been turned on. Then off, then on again. But that isn’t discouraging the locals.

Last year marked the 40th anniversary of independence of formerly British Dominica, one appropriately marked under the banner of resiliation. “Building a resilient nation” says the banner on Dame Mary Eugenia Charles Boulevard downtown Roseau at the ferry terminal. Across the way lies a building damaged by hurricane Maria still very much in need of repair.

As elsewhere this will take time, but eventually gets done as the huge cruise ships slowly make their way back, unloading their thousands of cash-rich passengers. South of Roseau in the community of Loubiere, Leonard Joseph spent much time and money on renovations after the storms. “We lost our roof and (the house's) contents on September 18, 2017.”

A number of other homes in the area sport new roofs, but some still have exposed top floors, and torn power lines can still be found along 5th avenue. Luckily residents can count on some inter-Caribbean solida-rity and support from far away islands such as St. Lucia. There hotel owner Cletus says while his island was largely spared in 2017 and last year, he feels for communities still impacted across the Caribbean.

“I tell people to go there (Dominica) to spend a little,” which will, bit by bit, go a long way to help rebuild islands still recovering from the furious hurricane season that was, and prepare for the ones to come.

If we want the next generation of global citizens to avoid a climate crisis we seem to be off to a rough start. The United Nations reported that efforts to tackle global warming are heading in the wrong direction, recording the first rise of carbon dioxide emissions in four years. That’s bad news considering the Paris climate accord target calls for reaching an emissions peak within the next two years.

As things stand it would be another decade before this is reached, and amid street protests and populist revolts over carbon taxes specialists say are one way to tackle the issue, the countries guilty of being way off course meeting these targets may surprise you. Canada and the European Union, where carbon taxes have been espoused but are meeting some resistance, are falling short of achieving their 2030 emissions targets.

Doing better are Brazil and behemoth China while Russia and another heavyweight, India, is on track to beat its targets. We’re a long way from the years Chinese reluctance to tackle climate change was impeding global efforts, yet global efforts are meeting a crucial turning point in terms of avoiding a future of serious climate crises according to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In early October the world's top scientists gave us a mere dozen years to keep global warming temperatures from rising beyond 1.5C otherwise the planet could face grave risks of floods, drought, extreme heat and poverty for millions around the globe as well as loss of plant and animal species. The way things stand now, global temperatures could rise by three to five degrees celsius by 2100.

For the UN, limiting the rise of temperature to 2C, the goal set in Paris, is economically and techno-logically possible, it's just a matter of political will. Coming as Australia dealt with severe drought in some areas and floodings in others and following California's worst fires on record, this did not go unnoticed. “There is a tremendous gap between the world's needs and deeds,” the IPCC stated, calling for nations to raise their targets five folds, targets more than a few currently are not on the way to reaching.

“It’s a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this is the moment and we must act now,” said Debra Roberts, co-chair of the working group on impacts. “This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilizes people and dents the mood of complacency.” Hardly helping is the denial of top polluter the United States, whose president undermined his own officials' warnings because he didn’t believe them.

More than 300 leading climate scientists and 13 U.S. agencies had penned a report warning of “substantial damages to the U.S. economy, environment and human health and well being over the coming decades” as climate “is transforming where and how we live and presents growing challenges to human health and quality of life, the economy and the natural system that supports us.”

Early into office the U.S. administration scrapped references to climate change on the website of the Environmental Protection Agency and has been undermining other climate and habitat protection measures. As a result, some states and municipalities have stepped in to offer their own measures, and the UN says “non state actors” may be the way to go in reluctant countries.

The UN notes currently 7000 cities in 133 countries and 6000 companies have pledged to take action on climate change. In Canada, oddly, the federal level is meeting resistance from provinces with new leadership that have balked at such efforts, which include putting a price on pollution.

The UN says such pricing plans are key in the fight against climate change. “If all fossil fuels subsidies were phased out global carbon emissions could be reduced by up to 10% by 2030. Setting the right carbon price is also essential. At $70 per tonne of CO2 reductions of up to 40% are possible in some countries.” In Canada the tax would be $20 per tonne at first next year and rising to $50 by 2020. But Western governments espousing carbon pricing have faced resistance.

Fuel taxes in France have caused weeks of disturbances, even as Paris considered mitigating measures, while Canada lowered the percentage of emissions on which some polluters have to pay a carbon tax following concerns by industry. But as world leaders met in Poland to agree on a rule book to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement, one increasingly weaning from fossil fuels, road blocks were becoming apparent.

For one, the next scheduled meeting would have to find a new host after Brazil, which ushered in a populist leader which has made his contempt of environmental issues plain, decided budgetary reasons prevented it from welcoming leaders next year. Of particular concern for environmentalists is the new administration's willingness to push development in the Amazon, the region's carbon cleansing lungs.

“By ignoring the climate agenda, the federal government also fails to protect the population, hit by a growing number of extreme weather events. These, unfortunately, do not cease to occur just because some doubt their causes,” said NGO Climate Observatory. While economic arguments are often provided for not going green the number of studies finding tackling climate change could provide massive savings down the road are multiplying. The World Health Organization is the latest to stress that meeting the commitments set in Paris could save millions of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars of damage by 2050.

When you’re a small but fiercely independent minded former Soviet republic with breakaway regions of the country and a history of skirmishes with Moscow your elections have the potential to be quite contentious.

But in Georgia both major camps of the recent poll agree on one thing, despite being in Russia’s shadow the country needs to keep moving towards the West, an important and bold decision in view of the tensions in Ukraine.

However oppo-sition leader Grigol Vashadze and governing party leader Salome Zurabishvili are definitely not on the same page after results showing the latter kept the Dream Party in power with 59% in the run off. That should be enough a margin to get opponents to concede and drop claims of victory but not so the leader of the United National Movement, who refused to recognize the results and held mass protests last weekend.

Vashadze in fact called the results a “criminal farce” and for snap parliamentary elections to be held. He says he is ready to challenge results in court. While observers say the runoff was “competitive” they note the ruling party candidate “enjoyed an undue advantage.”

French-born, Zurabishvili, who would be the country’s first female president, has the backing of billionaire former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has tremendous influence and means.

The opposition decried what it called voting irregularities and observers agreed there were potential violations, including the presence of party members at polling station seeking to obstruct the work of observers. But it is the tone of the campaign many were concerned about, outgoing president Giorgi Margve-lashvili expressing concern about the “sharp drop” of civility during the campaign. Observers note this has become a sad staple of Georgian elections.

“This was an election that continued the Georgian tradition of vicious negative campaigning and was more about ‘voting against’ than ‘voting for’,” Thomas de Waal of the Carnegie endowment for international peace told Radio Free Europe.

This is hardly ending on a good note an electoral system heading for changes as future presidents are to be elected by a college of electors, following constitutional changes which gave the prime minister most executive powers. Ten years after a five day war with Russia the country remains tense about its giant neighbor.

In 2008 Russia clashed with Georgia after Tbilisi responded to attacks instigated by residents of the disputed territory of South Ossetia, which broke away after the breakup of the Soviet Union, a move recognized by few countries. Russia seized the opportunity to send troops there as well as to Abkhazia, which opened a second front against Georgia, and recognized both autonomous areas when it left. Tbilisi now considers both areas occupied by Russia, with whom it has severed relations.

TO ARMS AGAIN?

The guns were silent as allies and former foes alike marked the anniversary of armistice, but could some be gearing up for war? Amid the centennial celebrations calls from the French host to create a European army did not fail to create a stir, and the continent’s new flirting with conscription showed security is top of mind after Russia’s invasion of Crimea, especially among frontline states.

Reviving an old concept, Emmanuel Macron said it was time for Europe to create its own army, a call for deepening of EU ties, at a time parts of the union seem to be splitting at the seams, in order to protect the continent “from China, Russia and even the United States of America.”

The statement did not fail to provoke his U.S. counterpart, who wasted no time panning the idea as “very insulting” quipping “they were starting to learn German in Paris before the U.S. came along” and calling for France to up its NATO dues. While the idea of an army has been floated for years and is far from enjoying a consensus, military service is being given new consideration amid the old super power sabre rattling.

Macron for one is pushing for the reintroduction of some sort of a national service, though not necessarily military, and he is hardly alone. Sweden in fact drafted its first new transcripts since the draft was abandoned at the beginning of the decade as has Lithuania, another country close to the Russian bear. Despite being further from that sensitive border Italy, Germany and Romania have also reconsidered some form of service while a number of countries, from Estonia and Denmark to Greece and Cyprus have maintained it.

“A key reason for the revival of the draft is a changing security situation in Europe,” Elizabeth Braw of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies told the Washington Post. “But there’s also an economic argument: it has been very hard to recruit to the armed forces, especially in Northern European countries, where the economy is going well.” And where the frontline can be seen from not too distant shores.

The Baltics have welcomed NATO troops amid concerns of Russian activity while nearby Finland has even been suspecting Russian nationals on its soil of planning some sort of military activity. “We will not protect the European if we don’t decide to have a real European army,” Macron added in a radio interview. “Faced with Russia, which is at our borders and which showed us that it could be threatening, we must have a Europe that defends itself more on its own, without only depending on the United States and in a more sovereign way.”

The statements could seem odd as Macron was welcoming U.S. and Russian leaders to mark the century since the armistice which ended World War I. But coming after the U.S. indicated its intention to withdraw from the intermediate range nuclear forces treaty, a further poke at the bear, Macron wasn’t shy to press his point. “Who will be the main victim?” He asked about ending the INF treaty, “Europe and its security.”

But Macron said his European defense proposals were not that different from America’s: “we need a much better burden sharing of NATO,” he said. Germany's Angela Merkel reaffirmed the usual strong Franco-German axis at the heart of the EU, agreeing in a speech before the European parliament that the EU had to consider "a real, true European army," as "the times when we could rely on others is past." This would complement NATO, she added, brushing aside occasional heckling by Eurosceptics.

While inter-army cooperation has been increasing over the last decades among EU members, the dream of a formal joint security framework is a longstanding one and observers doubt a truly unified army is realistic in a Union comprising 27 members. Just as Donald Trump's tirades are often meant for political consumption, some view the unearthing of the longstanding project of a unified army as political posturing ahead of European elections.

This being said "the responses to Donald Trump's words gave signs of a certain cohesion between European countries," notes Jean-Pierre Maulny of l'Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques. "What France and most European countries want to develop is a greater EU autonomy on defense," and eventually being less dependent of a United States that may very well not always be there at every turn. Last year 23 EU countries actually committed to launching the basis for a permanent structured military cooperation, but this observers note would require the approval of national governments, many of which, in the Baltics and Poland, are too dependent on the U.S. military.

Belgium's PM Charles Michel made the issue plain when he noted: "The United States did not become our enemies because of Donald Trump. Our childrens' security will be tied to maintaining and reinforcing a double alliance, European and trans-Atlantic." As for military service, it may not be coming back in the form it once had. In some countries giving it a second look it may seek to integrate members of society, especially migrants who have been arriving in the last few years.

In Sweden this will not be the case despite its generosity welcoming immigrants, as the army has been particularly selective by seeking people with particular skills such as computer programming and telecommunications, at a time cyber warfare is a growing concern. But military service or draft will have its objectors, and some say this will be no different in modern day Europe, with World War II a distant memory for the current generation of youngsters. A Paris correspondent points out Frenchmen had in fact become quite good at avoiding the previous versions of the draft. “You could deal with a doctor for him to find something in your medical record that would be too expensive for the military to check out for instance,” he recalls.

Oil prices may be plummeting amid a stock market slide that has erased all of this year’s gains, that hasn’t kept thousands of protesters in Europe from taking to the streets to condemn domestic fuel rates.

While this seems odd even in a country that embraces a good protest like its famous wine and cheese, the at times tumultuous demonstrations decried pump hikes caused by rising taxes, and the movement has been crossing borders.

The return from the summer break has been difficult in Paris, which has, like other cities across France, seen growing protest. Last week one person was killed when a panicked driver accidentally stepped on the gas when she was surrounded by protesters. Hundreds have been hurt in the clashes as protesters blocked highways and roads to fuel depots, donning the yellow vests that have become the symbols of the revolt.

Triggering it all were higher fuel prices as the government seeks to nudge consumers towards greener alternatives. The price of diesel rose by 23% over the last year, a hydrocarbon tax largely offsetting slipping oil prices.

This and other measures by the centrist government have increased criticism the young president was out of touch with the common Frenchman. After tax increases for everything from cigarettes to diesel a further increase slated for the new year was enough to raise the barricades in a number of communities as citizens complained about reduced purchasing power.

While the movement garnered 70% support among people polled, the president enjoys a mere 25% approval rate in his first full year at the helm. Clashes with unions have been particularly messy as Macron has tried to whip the economy into shape, but no single party or union is behind this movement, protesters from all stripes, including many who voted for Macron, having assembled in rallies that have paralysed some cities, in a year of protest and marches across the country.

"Frenchmen ask that politicians listen to them and provide answers," said Socialist party leader Olivier Faure. "Their demand is to have purchasing power and fiscal justice." Oddly, the rallies have united opposition parties, the far right boosting social media mobilization, which has been key in this protest movement. "The people shouldn't be afraid of French people who come to express their revolt and do so peacefully," said Marine Le Pen.

The government has tried to calm the movement, announcing energy subsidies for the less fortunate. Oddly the French president has been knighted as the leader in waiting of Europe's progressive forces, as Angela Merkel signalled she will not to seek re-election, at a time the continent is reeling from populist movements.

The protest is even reaching France's overseas possessions, such as Martinique, and inspirinig a similar movement in Belgium, which some say may form the basis of a political party. In all some 40, mostly European, countries have agreed to pricing pollution, China among them, resulting in higher pump prices even as world oil prices drop.

There was never a honeymoon to properly talk of, but if the U.S. president thought it was hard to get congressional approval for his agenda before...

Democrats regained control of the House of Represen-tatives after scoring a few dozen pickups of Republican districts in the 2018 U.S. mid-term elections but lost a few seats in the GOP led Senate, leaving the country to face likely gridlock. And despite a need for bipartisanship and compromise, nothing pointed to a toning down of the inflamed rhetoric which characterized the campaign and U.S. politics during the current presidency.

The results, painting some 225 House seats blue but a few more Senate seats red, left an already bitterly divided country, especially between rural and urban areas, even more torn apart. Unfazed, a defiant U.S. president called the night a “tremendous success” for preventing up and coming democratic stars from winning key races in Florida and Texas while adding to the GOP control of the Senate. Mid-terms have historically been tough on the president’s party no matter who is in the White House.

Donald Trump's enthusiasm came with a warning. “If the Democrats think they are going to waste taxpayer money investigating us at House level then we will likewise be forced to investigating them for all the leaks of classified information,” he stated. “Two can play that game.” The following day the U.S. president, now facing Democrats with subpoena power in the House over the Russian collusion investigation, announced the replacement of his attorney general, Jeff Sessions, who had recused himself from the probe, sparking warnings of a constitutional crisis from Democrats who found the timing of this long expected removal "suspect". Meanwhile the less than stellar night for Democrats showed the long work ahead if they hope to reclaim the presidency in 2020.

Setbacks for candidates such as Beto O’Rourke, losing to Ted Cruz in Texas, dampened the Democrats' celebrations, while the search for 2020 candidates continued as Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton's names resurfaced and after a campaign which saw the previous U.S. president campaign furiously for his side in the final days. But some thought this should not prevent O’Rourke from launching a bid for the presidency.

Until then there appears little prospect for the hoped compromises that would bring a measure of civility to U.S. politics but rather the sort of additional confrontation that heralds future legislative roadblocks unlikely to change the corrosive and divisive nature of politics at a time Americans are getting wary of their leaders. Exit polls showed most Americans were critical of the president and found the country heading in the wrong direction, as voters headed to the polls in what many considered a referendum on the president and the country's most important mid-term election in memory.

Over 36 million Americans had rushed to take part in early voting, an impressive amount usually indicative of a call for change. Total turnout was boosted by criticism of Trump's policies on one side and his use of identity politics to mobilize his base on the other. The election campaign reached a rhetorical fever pitch as a caravan of migrants from Central America moved through Mexico, some participants indicating they were eager to reach the U.S., which has tightened migration policies during the current administration. This provided Trump with the opportunity to mobilize his base, the U.S. president multiplying campaign appearances referring to the caravan as "an army" launching an "invasion", with plans drawn up to bring thousands of members of the national guard to the border with Mexico.

It was one amid a number of immigration related announ-cements made by the U.S. president, which included intentions to hold asylum seekers in camps until their claims are heard and questioning a U.S. amendment which grants citizenship to babies born in the country. Interestingly, little over a year after the U.S. president announced a travel ban against mainly Muslim countries, sparking outcries, two Muslim women were elected to the U.S. Congress for the first time. The House would welcome a record amount of women, over 100, after the first national election since the Metoo movement.

As Trump campaigned for Republicans in key states, former president Barack Obama added whistle stops of his own. "They're telling us that the single most grave threat to America is a bunch of poor impoverished, broke, hungry refugees a thousand miles away," he derided. "Unfortunately sometimes these tactics of scaring people and making stuff up work." The caravan became a rallying cry for conservatives to bring out the vote amid fears of a Democratic blue wave, but there was enough to scare voters in the late stages of the campaign.

Rumours billionaire philanthropist George Soros was somehow funding the caravan, which grew to the point of reaching some 14,000 migrants, emerged before an explosive device was found on his property in his posh New York suburb. Days later similar devices were found addressed to the nearby home belonging to the Clintons as well as Obama’s Washington residence and CNN's New York offices, suggesting the intention was politically motivated. A dozen devices were located in all by the time a suspect was arrested in Florida. The 56 year old Trump supporter made his first court appearance the day of the election.

Trump panned such acts of political violence “have no place in the United States” but he added the media bore its share of responsibility for the present level of political discourse, repeating his claim they were "the true enemy of the people." Soon America was rocked with an even more devastating attack when a man who had posted anti-Semitic and anti-migrant rants online gunned down eleven people in a Pittsburgh synagogue in what was called the worst attack against Jews in U.S. history.

Racist and anti-Semitic incidents have been on the rise in the United States in recent months, leading many to link them to the campaign's inflammatory rhetoric, which showed no signs of slowing down despite recent incidents. "Mr. president, hate speech leads to hateful actions," the rabbi of the Pittsburgh temple said he told the president. "Hate speech leads to what happened in my sanctuary." The president's online rhetoric is even getting to some of his supporters. "He should shut up on Twitter," said one Minnesota man who voted for Trump as he engaged another on a commuter ride in Minneapolis. "He needs a filter." But the first indication after the mid terms is neither vitriol nor Tweeting were going away.

WHO RUNS COLOMBO?

In the regional power play between China and India, Sri Lanka is certainly a big prize, and continuing tensions after the sacking of the country’s prime minister have the powerful neighbors paying attention. The removal of Ranil Wickremesinghe by president Maithripala Sirisena in favor of controversial former leader Mahindra Rajapaksa, the strongman who ended a bloody civil war but was accused of being behind much violence himself, brought riots to the streets and a strange standoff in power.

At one point protesters threat-ened to storm the ousted prime minister from his official residence, while other rallies condemned the move against him. Calls are even growing to impeach the president. The PM was ousted after the president removed his party from the ruling coalition, disagreeing in part over economic policy.

Wickreme-singhe said the move was illegal and claims he still has the full support of parliament, where his party enjoys the largest share of seats but no majority. “The constitution states that the president must appoint as prime minister, the person who commands the confidence of parliament, and I am the person who has that,” he told the BBC. “We have asked for the summoning of parliament so I can prove my majority in the house.”

The legislature was on hold leaving two people to claim the role of chief of government in a country where a number of executive powers once reserved for the presidency were stripped away in 2015. Some say that includes removing the PM. The ousting, condemned as a coup by critics, shocked Sri Lankans as Sirisena was previously a minister under Rajapaksa, before leaving the party to run against him and eventually win the presidency.

But three years of souring relations have left the president looking back to his previous ally to run the country. Rajapaksa, whose party enjoyed much success in February’s local votes and is favoured to win next year’s elections, isn't denying the seriousness of the state of the country, some fearing a return to the violent days of a 26 year civil war which killed up to 100,000 before it ended in 2009. “I am aware that at this moment of national peril the people expected our leadership and protection,” he said, explaining why he took the job.

Observers fear he crisis may threaten democracy and plunge the country back into chaos. “The president is claiming Rajapaksa has the confidence of the parliament but he’s now prorogued parliament and prevented it from functioning,” said human rights lawyer Gehan Gunatilleke.

“This is unambiguously undemocratic and indicates that he may not have a majority.” Friday Forum said the president's moves “demonstrate a flagrant disregard of he mandate he received from a majority of voters who voted for a change of regime from Rajapaksa's style of governance.”

The crisis has Beijing and Delhi paying attention, the former rushing to congratulate the new PM, a Sri Lanka MP from Wickremesinghe’s party accusing China of “spending money to buy over members” after dishing billions in infrastructure projects under Rajapaksa. This changed when he left power but could swing back in Beijing’s favour. “In its struggle with China over influence in Sri Lanka the Indian government will not be pleased if Rajapaksa establishes himself in power,” Alan Keenan of ICG told the Economic Times. European ambassadors called for “all parties to fully act in accordance with the constitution” in Sri Lanka.

Jair Bolsonaro won the second round of presidential pollsOur lead up analysis follows

With one candidate campaigning from a jail cell and another from a hospital bed after a knife attack, elections have been anything but ordinary in the regional powerhouse of Brazil, and many fear the man slated to win the presidential run-off will profoundly change politics in a way many may not agree with.

The country of 200 million held the first round of its presidential election after weeks of protests and counter protests surrounding one man, far right firebrand candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is still recovering from a stabbing during a campaign event. Bolsonaro took 46% of the vote in the first round, warning his countrymen choosing his opponent would bring the country down the path of turbulent Venezuela.

"(There is) the path of prosperity, liberty, family on God's side", he said, "and the other one is that of Venezuela." Worker Party candidate and former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad, who replaced jailed former president Luiz Inacio da Silva after he was banned from running from prison, came in second with 29%. Da Silva had been leading in the polls before being excluded. Bolsonaro’s past comments on women, homosexuals and the brutal dictatorship of Brazil’s darkest hours have brought out protests in a number of cities, while counter protesters have stressed he is the man to lift the country from the misery of poor economy, unemploy-ment and rampant violence and corruption.

This legacy is leaving some leftists so angry they would rather vote for Bolsonaro than Haddad. To some Haddad’s predecessor, and therefore the party, became a symbol of this corruption drowned in a sea of petrodollars, while the left is painting Bolsonaro as a fascist misogynist, the discourse leaving the country heavily divided ahead of the second round of voting later in the month.

“The country has been polarized for some time but this is deepening and the two sides are becoming more radical,” said Thomaz Favaro of Control Risks. And the continuing campaign ahead of the Oct. 28 second round is expected to make this only worse. “Bolsonaro could prove to be Brazil’s Donald Trump,” says Vladimir Signorelli of investor firm Brettonwoods research.

“A surprise turn in national politics at a moment of deep divisions. So long as he avoids an austerity message he can win.” As campaigning resumed Bolsonaro doubled down on promises to radically transform the country by gutting government and ridding it of corruption, privatizing state companies and declaring an all-out war on crime.

“The evils and damages of corruption hurts the people in many ways,” he tweeted. “It’s they who don't have a bed in the hospital, who don’t have security in the streets or money in their pockets. A corrupt government encourages crime in all spheres.” Some fear upping the already tough on street gangs approach would end up emulating the bloody policies of another populist president, Philippines' Duterte, accused of encouraging extrajudicial killings.

According to the UN Brazil had the most murders in 2016, the year it hosted the Olympics, with over 61,000. Much larger India had the second most with over 42,600. And Brazilian authorities say the numbers went up further last year. Bolsonaro would boost police forces while giving citizens more access to guns, a solution panned by critics already concerned about the present level of violence.

Among them his opponent stressed “public security is a public service, to give guns to the population is to exempt the state from protecting citizens.” The list of Bolsonaro's promises goes on. “Reduce the number of ministries, get rid of and privatize state companies, Fight fraud... decentralize power giving more economic force to the states and municipalities,” he went on, using his favoured sound byte form of reaching to the masses.

Under the banner of “Brazil over all” he said he would also reaffirm family values, a move critics fear would undo years of progress on minority and gay rights. He has criticized “leftist ideas” such as the designation of indigenous lands, which has cracked down on excessive development, especially in the Amazon. Bolsonaro even faced possible trial for one speech prosecutors say incited hate and rape.

Observers say his approach has broad appeal in the sound byte world. “Bolsonaro is very good at picking a one sentence summary of the issue and a one sentence solution to the issue and then one name to resolve it,” Matthew Taylor of American University told AP. Seeing the concern expressed by many about his praise for Brazil’s military past and intention to surround himself with former officers, the former army captain defended his platform saying his “administration will have authority, not authoritarianism.”

His stance on crime has been prevalent during the campaign, boosted in a way by his own injury, sustained in a knife attack during a stop when he was going through a dense crowd hoisted on the shoulders of a supporter. He suffered the injury despite wearing a bullet proof vest. Bolsonaro was trailing Da Silva in the polls at the time.

These sort of attacks on candidates are rare in the country but have been rising in recent months, along with the level of violence. Buses of the Da Silva campaign were hit by gun shots and one candidate, Marielle Franco, even murdered. “The campaign will be about passion,” opined political scientist Paulo Baia at the time. “Any candidate who tries to use rationale will not win voters. The attack on Bolsonaro messes with all the political forces in the country, it is the most important event in the campaign from diverse points of view.”

THE RUSSIAN VOTE

If there is one place where a country accused of election meddling like Russia would want to sway the vote this is it. Due to its geographic location and history formerly Soviet occupied Latvia has a large Russian monitory and is a major frontline nation used by Nato allies to stage military exercises, seen as provocative so close to the bear.These Nato troops, notably Canada’s, have even been the subject of a now familiar Russian campaign of disinformation to intimidate them. So it was with no surprise, with these powers at work and wariness with right wing parties and corruption allegations, that the pro-Russia Harmony party would obtain the most seats at the polls in the country of two million.

Continuing suspicion about Harmony, which in fact has seen its share of the vote continue dropping since 2011, could however ultimately leave the small Baltic nation run by another right wing coalition. Present talks to form a government are leaving out Harmony.

Still “our voters want a change from the old post Soviet politics which has been very powerful up until now,” acknowledged Janis Bordans of the New Conservatives. The nation is on the front lines of the new tensions between the West and Russia, terrified by the no matter how unlikely prospect of a Crimean-type incursion despite its EU and Nato membership.

But still it has been pushing back pro-Russian influence, an effort lead by the mayor of Riga. Another small European country where pro-Russian forces have done well in recent polls and their impact is a concern, owing to its extremely complicated political system, is Bosnia, which chose leaders of its three member presidency in recent elections.

Among those elected was Russia friendly Serb nationalist Milorad Dodik. Muslim and Croat leaders were also chosen to rule the country split in two between Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation of Bosniaks and Croats.

Dodik will replace moderate incumbent Mladen Ivanic, who conceded defeat, sparking fears of deepening divisions in the fractured country of the volatile Balkans. Dodik has made clear his “first priority will be the position of the Serb people and of Republika Srspka.” He added: “Bosnia-Herzegovina also may progress if everyone is respected,” but others feared tough days ahead in the country of three million.

Outgoing Dragan Covic of the Croat HDZ party, who lost the Croat vote, called for a separate Croat entity warning a "never-seen-before" crisis threatens Bosnia. Tensions between Bosnian Muslims and Serbs have flared anew during the campaign, at a time Bosnia is facing pressure to change its current course seeking EU and Nato membership.

A planned land swap between Kosovo and Bosnia also has the potential to destabilize the region and threaten Bosnian unity, by potentially sparking calls for Serbs to break their region away from Bosnia and join Serbia. Ironically, the swap intended quite the opposite, seeking to reduce regional tensions.

How far should democracies go collecting personal information on citizens? The debate rages across the globe in the online era where social media posts are monitored and less public details also gleaned by snooping industries and governments. It is a valid question the Indian Supreme Court pondered as the nation’s controversial Aadhaar biometric identification program came under consideration.

Launched at the beginning of the decade the database collected more than a billion sets of data, including photos, finger prints and eye scans, and ultimately obtained the blessing of the high court for assisting the disbursement of welfare benefits to “those who are illiterate and living in abject poverty or without any shelter,” of which there is no lack.

But the court pushed back on private industry access to Aadhaar allowed under the current government stressing that being in the growing database shouldn't be necessary to use cellphones, admission in school or open a bank account. “There needs to be balancing of two competing fundamental rights,” it stressed. “Right of privacy on the one hand and right to food, shelter and employment on the other hand.”

This was well received by plaintiffs nervous about the reach of the program and the sharing of such sensitive information about people who are often among the world's poorest. “This is a good judgment” opined lawyer Parvesh Khanna in the Wall St. Journal. “It’s OK for the government to use my data but not the private companies.” Of course this makes the government’s responsibility to safeguard those sensitive details all the more important, which is a cause for concern among critics.

In an age of frequent data breaches both in government and the private sector, it is hard not to see the risk even in the country praised for its IT prowess. Just last week Facebook reported a breach of 50 million users which did not only compromise their Facebook accounts but Instagram, Tinder and other accounts associated with their login.

The Indian government says the database is safe but media have reported hacker attempts to access what is becoming a prized data target, and critics say that, for all its good intentions assisting the less fortunate, many are still victimized for not being able to get on the database. The Indian program is the largest of its kind but that may soon change as China’s even more intrusive social rating program grows.

Introduced after the development of Aadhaar in what remains for now the world's most populated country, the Chinese government program isn't concerned about democratic nuisances such as constitutional rights, as it seeks to give all its citizens a social score that would determine access to services and privileges based on government records and sweeping monitoring of social behaviour, loyalty and morals.

This isn’t about someone stealing your data but government going places even George Orwell couldn’t suspect would exist. The communist party has slightly pushed back to 2020 plans to include all its 1.4 billion citizens in its dystopian social ranking program, perhaps realizing the complexity of monitoring habits and actions across the real and digital world of so many souls, but eventually will be ranking all from birth to old age based on everything from online comments to brick and mortar store shopping by then.

Attributed scores would then dictate rights and privileges, such as access to VIP treatment or simple rail travel by some accounts. In an Australian television program financial system manager Jie Cong described the implications of the system currently being piloted: “If people keep their promises they can go anywhere in the world, if people break their promises they won’t be able to move an inch.”

The most important promise being loyalty to the regime in Beijing. “Model citizens” would enjoy the best perks and priority job and top school access, while those at the bottom of the scale would struggle to book a simple train ticket. And dreaded lower scores could haunt not only those who say the wrong things about government or break the law, but even those close to them. According to Business Insider lower scores could come from anything from playing too many video games to wasting money on frivolous spending.

Journalists have already been blacklisted and suffer for doing their job in this all intrusive system, now involving millions since its launch a few years ago. “This kind of social control is against the tide of the world,” says journalist Liu Hu, who has been banned from social media and is having a hard time finding work.

“The Chinese people’s eyes are blinded and their ears are blocked.” But this sort of authoritarianism is seeing a new era emerge as online postings are now subject to scrutiny by regimes from North Africa to the Gulf, sometimes leading to the arrest of bloggers and online activists, all the way to his region of Asia. Indian officials cautious of maintaining the world’s largest democracy vibrant are welcoming the court ruling cautious of where the data slope starts to slip.

This reflection is also taking place in Canada, which announced this week it was launching a nationwide consultation on digital and data transformation, to better understand "how we can drive innovation and ensure Canadians have trust and confidence in how their data is used" in an effort to "grow the economy while protecting their data, ensuring privacy and building trust."

Much has been said about a return to a Cold War type environment since the annexation of Crimea, but a similar prism can be used to consider electoral and other developments in Asia, and it doesn’t include the superpowers you may have in mind.

Regional and up and coming global powers China and India have made their growing rivalry plain as the turbulent Maldives and quiet Bhutan went to the polls, the results being dissected as a win for one or the other in this zero sum high stakes game.

India reeled after neighbor Bhutan changed leader in the recent poll, which some say could yield more influence to Beijing, but the latter was largely seen as the loser of the contest as the small island chain of less than half a million went to the polls.

A change of government there after the turbulent reign of outgoing Abdullah Yameen was largely seen as a blow to China in favor of the India friendly Ibrahim Solih. He is an ally of former leader Mohamed Nasheed, who is now in exile and has sought to renegotiate investment deals with China.

“This is a moment of happiness, a moment of hope,” said Solih after the results came in. “This is a journey that has ended at the ballot box because the people willed it.” The political situation has been anything but stable since the tenuous return to democracy a decade ago, which followed 30 years of authoritarianism.

Observers feared Yameen would contest the results, which showed him losing by 16%, after cracking down on dissent, the media and observers during his five year tenure. He imposed a state of emergency this winter to annul a Supreme Court ruling that overturned convictions of opposition members, including Nasheed.

Yet Yameen stated he “accepted the results” and congratulated the incoming leader. The results were welcome enthusiastically in Delhi, calling them “the triumph of democratic forces” reflecting “the firm commitment to the values of democracy and the rule of law.”

Growing Chinese influence in the region, including financing of the extension of the country’s international airport, has caused concern in Delhi and Washington, especially as Beijing looks to develop a network of friendly ports all the while pressing on sovereignty issues in the south and east China seas.

The election's outcome "marks an important step toward strengthening democracy in the Maldives," notes author Alyssa Ayres, but adds a lot of work will have to go into undoing the damage done. "Restoring democratic institutions will not be easy. The Maldives will not only have to grapple with questions like freedom of expression, but also the persistent issue of judicial and legal reform, as well as problems of corruption, just to start."

And as it reevaluates its financial obligations to China, which invested heavily in infrastructures, it will try to avoid to fate of similar debt in Sri Lanka, which Ayres notes resulted in majority Chinese ownership of a port. Such dependence, these lessons have shown, has come at the cost of sovereingty in the Indian Ocean. After the Maldives setback China however moved to try to downplay the rivalry, saying it represented instead an opportunity to work in concert with both the Maldives and India to forge better ties.

With stores going cashless and the homeless wearing bar codes to receive donations, are dollar bills facing extinction? Not so fast as the rush to become cashless, using everything from plastic to phones and watches to pay, may be facing some push back, notably in societies which have embraced epayments the most.

There’s no doubt cash is something many decide to go without in many transactions, debit and credit card uses going up 50% in the U.S. between 2010 and 2015 while ATMs are slowly going the way of the pay phones.

This is giving criminals a run for their money, as they often prefer to use cash to launder money or hide transactions from electronic eyes. Mind you crypto currencies, as anti-cash as it comes, have seen a collapse in value this fall, wiping out recent investors to the tune of over half a trillion dollars this year.

Still cashless is making gains, with the opening of cashless stores such as U.S. coffee chain Bluestone Lane, and experimental Amazon stores that record your purchases as you walk out the door.

The company that is giving brick and mortar stores and shopping malls a run for their money is expecting to open 3,000 stores like this by 2021 by some accounts. A Forex Bonuses study last year found Canada to be the most advanced country in the world when it comes to cashless payments.

Limiting business to electronic transactions avoids change complications and human error running up the tally. Even small street businesses such as food trucks are moving to cashless to avoid robberies. But if you want to show your humanity you can drop electronic coins in the virtual coffee mug of the homeless in an Oxford pilot project providing the homeless with bar codes.

“The problem we’re trying to solve here is that we live in an increasingly cashless society,” said Alex McCallion, founder of Greater Change. With all these cashless people roaming the streets, it probably works out better that way. More cashless but not entirely ready to ban hard currency, countries which have pioneered the modern way of doing business have seen a certain push back by consumers.

By 2017 a survey found that only a quarter of people paid in cash at least once a week and 36% never used any cash. But in another recent poll 68% said they would not want to live in a purely cashless environment. No more than one in four would contemplate such a thing. And going fully cashless would affect people who don’t have plastic and some 7% of Americans who do not have a bank account.

Observers point out transactions would prove a tad tricky if the lights went out, such as during the North American blackout of 2003. “If the power supply is cut it’s no longer possible to make electronic payments,” notes Stefan Ingves, governor of the Swedish Riksbank. “For reasons based purely in preparedness we need notes and coins that work without electricity.” The bottom line is banks are still expected to carry and accept cash, he says.

“A ban on cash goes against the public perception of what money is and what banks do.” But cashless is money, according to one study of 100 cities which found that consumers and businesses would save billions of hours of time and $420 billion by doing more, and faster cashless transactions.

THE TOP OF THE WORLD VOTES

The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has only had television since 1999 and elections since 2008, but it can already boast something many other countries can’t in such a short period of time: two peaceful democratic transitions.

This month the land which replaced gross national product with gross national happiness ousted its government to set up a run off next month between the first party elected in general elections ten years ago and the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) of Dr. Lotay Tshering, who collected the most votes in the first round.

There was little resistance by outgoing prime minister Tshering Tobgay, who conceded the electors of the kingdom of 800,000 had "spoken". "The People's Democratic Party graciously accepts their decision," he said. "The will of the people must prevail in a democracy."

And this is a young one, with the "dragon kings" which once ruled just conceding power a decade ago. Since these celestial lands of the Himalayas have been ruled by earthlings concerned about the very down to earth issues of development, employ-ment and corruption. While the outgoing leadership scored high marks for lowering unemployment and providing controlled growth, with tourism growing but without threatening the carbon-negative country's environ-ment, youth employment remains problematic, as does rural poverty.

"The core issues in 2018 are the same as in 2013 and 2008," editor Tenzing Lamsang told AFP. "The economy, rural development, infrastructure and, to some extent, tourism." At a time tourists are facing a backlash everywhere from Spain to Easter Island, this sector is being limited in Bhutan by slapping a daily $250 tax on visitors, limiting their numbers and stay.

Though this is adding to the allure of the kingdom as a seemingly forbidden, but in actuality very welcoming nation. The tiny country the size of Switzerland is very much the mouse living among the continental giants, especially India, which provides much of its aid. India and China are rivals vying for influence in Bhutan.

During the previous election Delhi is suspected of having timed limits to subsidies to influence the election. Just a year ago India, which maintains a military presence in the country, engaged in a standoff with China at the top of the world, the Doklam plateau, which is the subject of a border rivalry between Bhutan and its giant Han neighbor. While Delhi largely kept its hands off this year's election, analysts point out it cannot stay entirely unmoved by China's increasing influence in the kingdom.

Speaking at a recent military exercise which included Bhutanese and Indian troops recently, an Indian general suggested both Nepal and Bhutan had to maintain close links to Delhi due to their geography. “Countries like Nepal and Bhutan have to be naturally inclined to India because of the geography. Geography favours their inclination towards India and not towards China," said Gen. Bipin Rawat, concerned about Beijing's growing influence in the region.

“China is an emerging competitor. Everything is about economics," he said. "They are also looking for markets and we are also looking for the same market and there is competition. So, whoever performs better will win the race,” he said.

THAT ARAB SPRING...

What has happened to the Arab spring? The question lingers years later as Cairo, where the military has fully taken charge, jails thousands for participating in a protest and Yemen is ravaged by both war and a humanitarian crisis.

Meanwhile Libya reels from violent clashes seemingly without end. It’s almost enough to make you regret the iron fist which once gave the country a semblance of lawfulness. Lawlessness is hardly the issue in Egypt where a mass trial condemned by human rights groups sentenced hundreds to jail for participating in a 2013 protest against the removal of democratically elected leader Mohammed Morsi.

The Muslim brotherhood protest, largely a sit in, was cracked down by police and soldiers ferociously at the time, killing over 800, which Human Rights Watch denounced as a crime against humanity. Authorities claimed participants were armed and killed dozens of officers. Over 70 death sentences were handed out.

Among those incarcerated at the time was award winning photojournalist Mahmoud Abu Zeid. He was sentenced to five years, which he has served since his arrest. Officers received immunity for their actions.

In contrast it is the collapse of law and order in Libya which has made it the Wild West of North Africa despite a recent ceasefire attempt. Caught between the armed factions fighting for territory in a country with constantly threatened government members are the migrants who have survived a trek through the desert only to fall captive and suffer from violence in Libya.

Over 40 people were killed in the violence rocking the capital recently, which has displaced hundreds. While the UN backs the government it has often found itself targeted by the violence tearing the country-side. But some of the warring factions have direct support from the interior ministry and members of government.

The violence has closed the airport for weeks. UN officials were quick to point out the latest ceasefire attempt “does not aim to fix all the Libyan capital's security problems; it seeks to agree on a broader framework on the way to start addressing these issues.”

As if one cue an armed group stormed the headquarters of the national oil corporation in the centre of Tripoli. Two were reported dead in this, the latest disruption to the country’s key economic sector and source of badly needed income.

Lawless Libya has concerned security experts for years, fearful it will become the latest breeding ground for IS supporters. This year the group has claimed dozens of attacks, including the oil company attack, despite a barrage of U.S. air strikes meant to prevent it from planting roots. But the security void has proven a breeding ground for support.

"They use these attacks to show they're back in business," Carnegie Endowment expert Frederic Wehrey told the Wall St. Journal. "The best recruiter for IS in Libya is political turmoil, political infighting. When Libya is divided, that gives room for the IS to grow."

MOLDOVANS PROTEST

As divided as they are politically, few things bring Moldovans together like their dislike of the turn of events in the early 1990s when the former Soviet republic broke away from Moscow. The break itself was met with horror by russophile residents of the eastern region of Transnistria, who decided they were creating their own little state separate from the rest of Moldova.

But going it alone was hardly embraced by all in the western areas, who found themselves isolated from Romania, with whom they share a language and culture. A century ago Moldova formed a union with its western neighbor before falling under the Soviet cloak during the Second World War.

A century later protesters took to the streets of the capital Chisinau calling for reunification with Romania, which they view as possibly opening the way to joining the EU and NATO, at a time the Russian bear is growling once more, and some fear could come for its minority the same way it came for regions of eastern Ukraine.

The takeover of Crimea raised tensions in the region which have not gone away. The country's divisions were certainly on display the weekend of the peaceful protest, as pro-Russian supporters were also scheduled to take to the streets but cancelled at the last minute.

Transnistria is fiercely pro-Russian and independent from Chisinau with its own police, and government. It is an unrecognized state with its own capital, Tiraspol, which maintains an old Soviet struck flag complete with hammer and sickle. But Transnistria is hardly the only breakaway region of the country. Gagauzia to the south east is another region enjoying a certain autonomy with its own parliament.

The Turcophile region would also most likely balk if Moldova were to reunite with Romania. Neighboring Taraclia is yet another region looking for a certain degree of autonomy, being home to a large share of the country's 80,000 ethnic Bulgarians. While the Chisinau demonstration was peaceful, some participants, including a Romanian politician, said they were harrassed while organizers said a number of protest buses were prevented from accessing the city's central square.

A previous protest had nearly come to blows between protesters and counterprotesters according to Balkan Insight. While many Moldovans mobolising in favor of reunification, something rejected by the current pro-Russia president, said it would help fight corruption, Romanians were ironically themselves taking to the streets recently to protest what they consider their own government's corruption.

Moldovan society has become over time "more conspicuously polarized geopolitically and this polarization is for now unsurmountable," writes researcher Dionis Cenusa. "This distracts attention from the reform priorities that can either hasten or delay the process of coming closer to the European political, economic and social model."

Perhaps it’s the way they do their special brand of politics down under, but with the sixth prime minister taking over in a decade in Australia even the locals are grumbling about the revolving doors in Canberra, giving the land of kangaroos and didgeridoos a certain Italian feel. Yet another palace revolt amid the ruling party has turfed out a leader in mid term.

Premier Malcolm Turnbull was ousted in favor of Scott Morrison, author of the country's controversial and rigid immigration laws, notably after Liberal party members rejected his stance on climate change. In a year the country has been ravaged by a severe drought and other signs of climate change, the party remains split on the issue, due to strong opposition in the coal mining regions.

Climate change has one way or another been a factor in the fall of previous leaders in recent years, noted University of Texas professor Joshua Busby in a piece in The Washington Post, from Kevin Rudd, who was premier during two periods, to Julia Gilliard and later Tony Abbott. It didn’t help that Turnbull had reconsidered measures to legislate carbon emissions. The squabbles are leaving the opposition Labour Party in a favorable posture to claim next year's elections.

Both Labour and Greens would seek far more ambitious climate commitments as the country has seen emissions grow despite signing on to a Paris deal climate opponents have sought to withdraw from, emboldened by Washington’s decision to leave the environmental accord.

Australia’s policy of keeping migrants in detention centres in poorer neighboring nations has also faced criticism as the issue of immigration bubbled back to the surface recently when for the first time in years a group of migrants was caught illegally reaching the country's shores.

“Morrison’s time as immigration minister is a terrible stain in our history,” commented lawyer Julian Burnside in a recent edition of the Age. “By creating a sense of military emergency, on the migrant issues", he writes, “he made it look somehow justifiable to lock people up in misery on Manus Island and Nauru.”

Turnbull meanwhile announced he was leaving parliament, taking jab at his predecessors saying “former prime ministers are best out of parliament, not in it, and I think recent events best underline the value of that observation.” The transition did manage to at least temporarily end the infighting that was troubling the government, but it may be too little too late for an electorate tired with the antics of Australia’s isolated capital city.

“Dear Queen Elizabeth, on behalf of the population of Australia please sack them all,” opined Roni Mompiche on Twitter. “We need a functioning government not an out of control gang of sandpit bullies who can’t even agree who to bully anymore.” If a by-election for Turnbull’s seat is lost by the Liberals they could have to rely on independents to push any legislation until the election takes place early next year.

It didn’t matter that this wasn’t terrorism in the most recently accepted inter-pretation of the term, but it was in Canada, where mass casualties, and gun play, are rare. Just a little less than it was a year ago.

Shootings in large metropolitan Toronto and small provincial Fredericton over the summer shocked Canadians, who gathered to mourn and just as quickly turned to their leaders to urge more gun regulations, even if the motive of the attacks remained uncertain.

The family of Faisal Hussain, accused of killing two and injuring a dozen in Toronto’s outgoing Danforth area, said the 29 year old had been struggling with mental issues for years before the events which brought an end to his life in yet to be determined circumstances.

Over 1000 kilometres away little was immediately known on the motive involved in the killing of four, including two police officers, in the shocked New Brunswick town of 50,000, one hundred times smaller than the GTA. In both communities, and others across the country, calls for action rose, as Toronto’s mayor questioned the need for any guns in his fair city, rocked by an unusual barrage of shootings over the summer.

Toronto city council soon after passed a motion urging Ottawa to allow the city to ban the sale of hand guns. The gun used in that attack, which the suspect later turned on himself, originated in the U.S. and was later stolen in Saskatchewan, while a commonly available long gun was used in Fredericton, one for which the suspect had a licence.

Newly elected Ontario premier Doug Ford quickly reacted, announcing $18 million to better equip police officers, this after the city had put more officers on the streets to deal with this year's surge of gun related-incidents; at the time some 240 shootings tied to 30 deaths, something critics say is only looking at one way to solve the growing problem. “Policing alone may not be enough to lower gun crime substantially,” opined the Toronto Star.

“Where Ford is wrong is in his assumption that nothing else is needed”, for instance addressing mental health, as in Hussein’s case, and leaving untouched rules “too lax” on who can possess guns.

In a country where the issue is much more regulated than south of the border, where many of the weapons originate, the prime minister has been called into action, but referred to ongoing legislation while refusing to bring back the retired long gun registry.

“The bill would require gun sellers to keep records. It would also make background checks more rigorous,” writes the Star. “But the system would still allow far too many Canadians to legally possess restricted weapons, such as hand guns.” Mental health issues raised after attacks also considered first responders, as experts warned of the devastating psychological impact of such events in small communities such as Fredericton and Moncton.

The latest New Brunswick incident occurred four years after a shooting rampage killed three Mounties in Moncton, potentially setting up long lasting psychological consequences according to psychologist Katy Kamar. “It is important to understand that behind that badge we have a human being,” she tells CBC. “We run away from trauma while (officers) go towards it to face it. We need to have an awareness and appreciation for mental health conditions that officers may face such as depression and anxiety disorder.”

In a sweeping survey of 5813 first responders in 2017, 44% were screened as having symptoms of mental issues, four times the average of the general population. Three officer suicides in as many weeks in Ontario prompted a police union leader this week to write a heart felt personal letter urging members to seek help if they faced emotional distress.

Meanwhile “there are lots of conversations going on about what next steps might be taken,” on gun violence, Justin Trudeau said while visiting Fredericton after the shooting. “We’re listening to people and talking to experts about what we can do to keep our communities safe.”

Among the changes this summer was the creation of a new portfolio of minister of border security and organized crime reduction. Its minister, former Toronto police chief Bill Blair, acknowledged gun violence represented a significant concern for Canadians, and Ottawa was willing to consider any possible measures to tackle the issue as well as organized crime.

The recent shootings and continuing violence across the country, in volatile areas such as in Surrey, B.C., required that “we examine the issue and deal with it in a comprehensive way.” Days later Canada's police chiefs reached the same conclusion, striking a committee to analyse data on gun violence, seeking evidence-based recommen-dations to target the problem. The chiefs noted that overall the country's gun control regime is "actually very good," adding it didn't require major legislation changes.

But in the city where the Polytechnique massacre took place nearly 30 years ago, officials explored a nationwide ban on handguns and assault weapons, finding common ground with Canada's largest city. Montreal also pressed Ottawa to engage in enhanced background checks, something federal authorities were willing to consider.

"We need tighter controls to make our cities safer," said Montreal councillor Alex Norris. This could require Ottawa to expand legislation currently going through parliament. "We understand one of the fundamental responsibility of government is to keeps its citizens safe and that's what we're focused on," Trudeau said. But some argue his C-71 legislation doesn't go far enough. “We hope that this political pressure will counter the influence of the gun lobby and actually push the government to bring in tough measures,” said gun control activist Heidi Rathjen.

THOSE WHO WELCOME

While Europe hasn’t seen the lines of mass migrants making their way north as it did in 2015, its struggle accommodating the thousands who attempt the Mediterranean trek to reach European shores continues, prompting some frontline countries such as Malta and Italy to shut their doors.

But at least one Southern European country is open to helping quickly strained frontline countries such as Spain by receiving more migrants, largely because the few who have landed here over the years have moved on northwards.

It is a historic fact that Portugal has been the launching pad of explorers, a fact reminded by the monument of the discoverers on the shores of Lisbon’s Tagus river honouring those who left to explore the world in the golden age of discovery. Too many locals are eager to explore these days, even if it’s just the other European countries further north, and this has caused Portugal’s population to stagnate.

This failure to retain migrants and lack of a shore on the Mediterranean, has meant Portugal has received less than its EU quota of migrants and therefore is more willing to welcome newcomers tipping the scales elsewhere, starting with those turned away from Italy.

In July Lisbon took dozens of migrants turned away, while neighbor Spain continues to step up its game and takes over as top welcoming country, receiving some 23,000 migrants since January. But whether the new arrivals decide to stay in Portugal, a country with smaller immigrant welcoming commu-nities and fewer opportunities, is less certain.

The locals are certainly seeking to make them feel welcome, a graffiti in Lisbon's historic Alfama district proclaiming "Refugees wel-come. Golden visas go home" a referral to immigrants buying their way into the country through investments.

"We need more immigration and we won't tolerate any xenophobic rhetoric," declared Prime Minister Antonio Costa this spring. With an aging population and recovering from the recession which sent thousands moving abroad, Portugal needs 75,000 newcomers a year just to maintain current population levels, currently sitting just over 10 million.

Lisbon isn’t alone rolling out the welcome mat thankfully, Norway is another country relatively untouched by the migrant influx which has overwhelmed a number of countries and Oslo is willing to step up and do its share.

The Nordic country is another one sharing a border with a much larger player on continental migration, some there blaming Sweden’s large influx in recent years for the rise of the anti immigration Swedish Demo-crats who are looking to make unprecedented inroads in this fall's election.

"If it is such that we reach agreement that the pressure of refugees coming to other countries in Europe is reduced because other countries take more, we must agree on a distribution mechanism," said Prime Minister Erna Solberg. "I think that is fair and we also did that when we had redistribution in 2015."

But there as elsewhere, on this wealthy and lightly populated country, the matter isn't without opposition. Her own finance minister wrote on social media: "Norway has already contributed signifi-cantly", pushing the idea of a "joint asylum centre in Africa" supported by some.

The issue could in fact be severe enough as to threaten Oslo's coalition government, formed in part by the populist Progress Party. In fact figures released by the Directorate of Immigration showed that the country had received 3,500 asylum applications in 2017, mostly from frontline Italy and Greece, down sharply from 30,000 in 2015.

SAME OLD IN HARARE

The scene looked familiar, as two years ago, stores remained shuttered in downtown Harare, emptied of its hustle and bustle in a silence of people protest. But much has happened in the impoverished African nation since then.

Strongman Robert Mugabe, a permanent fixture since independence, had stepped aside and elections took place promising new faces to lead the country held for decades with an iron grip. So much change, and yet so much remains the same. Protesters clashed with police after electoral results declared the leader of the eternal ZANU PF party, Emmerson Mnangagwa, the election's winner.

The opposition denounced the vote as fraudulent and moved to contest it. And now a return to violence. Was too much hope invested too soon in dramatic change after the end of Mugabe’s reign? Soon after the protest abated and the hopes of true change faded, came reports of a continuation of the old terror and intimidation, as human rights groups and opposition members, who declared the vote a sham, reported brutal crackdowns had taken place since he late July election.

Following the protest in early August “police, soldiers and unidentified men also beat up and harassed scores of people in Harare” Human Rights Watch reported, “with soldiers unleashing violence against the ruling party opponents, the veneer of respect for human rights and democratic rule that president Mnangagwa clai-med is now clearly gone.”

The violence started as soon as the first results started to trickle in as soldiers used live fire to shoot civilians, killing six. While the president says he is launching an investigation into the matter , the opposition says it is the military, not him, who is firmly in charge.

“Emmerson Mnangagwa is a pretender,” charged Happymore Chidziva of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) youth wing when reached in hiding by CNN. “If he can unite the country, why is the army in the streets? Basically what is in Zimbabwe now is a military government.”

The military has denied charges of rounding up opponents but the opposition, starting with Chidziva who was himself targeted, said it will fight on. “They can torture us, they can kill us. What we want is a better Zimbabwe.”

Authorities are accusing nine opposition members of inciting violence which lead to the post electoral deaths, including senior MDC member Tendai Biti, who was arrested and charged after being denied asylum in nearby Zambia, where he tried to flee. An arrest warrant says Biti had unlawfully declared MDC leader Nelson Chamisa winner of the election.

The MDC vowed to overturn electoral results, which showed Mnangagwa winning with 50.8%, just enough to avoid a runoff, saying they were the subject of "mammoth theft and fraud". They at very least delayed the presidential inauguration.

ROMANIA RISES UP

When thousands of Romanians gathered in the streets of Bucarest and other cities asking for the government to step down over corruption allegations you didn’t have to look all the way back to the fall of dictator Ceausescu to fear the wrath of people power.

Just months ago Armenia had tossed its newly appointed leader in a move that sent shockwaves all the way to Moscow. Three years ago a similar protest had toppled the government.

But these things have hardly ended well. Hundreds were injured and one killed in clashes with police as the government dug in its heels, though this was not condoned by president Klaus Iohannis: “I firmly condemn the riot police's brutal intervention, strongly disproportionate to the actions of the majority of the people,” he said.

But police said they reacted defensively to a crowd growing more threatening and throwing rocks and other projectiles. Unlike other years, the gathering had drawn in thousands of expats from all over Europe, sometimes crossing the borders waving flags, angry at the corruption and low wages which drove them away.

Romania has the largest population of migrants in the rest of the EU, contributing billions of remittances every year. While expats have always supported protests, this is the first year they travelled back to make their point, rebuffing the ruling PSD, the successor of the Communist party mainly supported by the country’s rural areas.

“The diaspora is the most powerful actor to take on the current leadership and change the country,” writes local journalist Raluca Besliu. “It is not only Romania’s economic motor but also the physical symbol of years of economic mismanagement mostly by PSD”, which has been ruling Romania since the 1990s.

Nearly everyone knows someone who works abroad, Besliu writes, and this could make the expats “Romania’s salvation.” Trouble bubbled to the surface in July when anti corruption prosecutor Laura Kovesi, looking into local and national politicians, was dismissed with the approval of Iohannis. Corruption is “everywhere, embedded in the country’s health and education system, its transportation networks, its post offices,” wrote scholars Marius Stan and Vladimir Tismaneanu in Politico.

“It works at the expense of average citizens and permeates every level of communal organization and daily life in post communist Romania.” The country’s civic stirrings, going back over a year “is effectively a clash between those who cherish open society and the rule of law, and those who resent it,” they write.

Expats were also particularly fumed by a bill asking those living a broad to supply documents justifying moneys over certain amounts sent back to families. The party has lost some of these battles in the past, having been forced out of government three years ago over the mismanagement of a deadly nightclub fire, and is gearing up for new presidential polls next year.

WHAT BREXIT? “Please, our government is falling apart and it rained today,” implored
an England fan as the three lions faced Croatia in the semifinal of the
World Cup in Russia.

England didn’t make it to the final
but would Theresa May’s government and premiership survive the battle
over the country’s strategy for leaving the European Union?

Two
years after the Brexit referendum the only thing 10 Downing Street
seemed sure about was that there would under no circumstances be any
second referendum, even if the 2016 squeaker left just over 51%
deciding in favor of breaking off from the European Union.

More
recently it seemed as though the Brexiteers themselves were breaking
off with their government, splitting the Conservatives down the middle
as two ministers decided to call it quits over what they considered too
EU-friendly a Brexit negotiation plan. Nine party members in all
resigned because they considered it a much watered down version of
Brexit too distant from what Britons had voted for during the
referendum.

Opponents of Brexit could hardly
rejoice in their corner as they still considered the proposal too harsh,
and this was only supposed to be the starting point of protracted talks
leading to the formal break from the European Union in March of next
year. What then? What ties with the old continent, and what measures to
put in place at the Northern Ireland border?

To
calm down some of the opposition May accepted four amendments proposed
by Brexiteers to the negotiating agreement but warned pushing too hard
and toppling her could undo the entire project to leave the EU. May
seemed to have survived calls for a confidence motion but soon faced
accusations of capitulation and "caving in" by other Tory MPs who
criticized her for what they said was fundamentally undermining the
initial proposal.

The opposition could only look on
amused, if the situation weren't so dire. The amendments sought to make
sure Britain stayed out of the EU’s value added tax regime and stopped
the U.K. from collecting tariffs for the European block. May's lack of
majority made her particularly vulnerable as she hoped to reach the end
of the session and slip into the summer break.

Pro-EU
ministers however did not take kindly to efforts to scrap plans for a
customs deal with the Union and two of them threatened to quit unless
the government backed a further amendment to force Britain to join a
customs union if there is no such agreement after Brexit.

Backing
them was Labour, ironically, now enjoying a boost in the polls, making
matters even tougher for May. But she's survived a few of these ordeals
and the government narrowly won the vote, yet another close call, living
to fight another day. May however lost a separate vote on medicine
regulations after Brexit, keeping the U.K. in the EU's medicines
regulatory network.

A change of course would be
nothing new to this frail government, whose leader had pledged not to
hold a snap election, until it did just that, leading some to suspect
even a second referendum may not be entirely off the table in the end.
“There is so much turmoil in government that there is probably no
parliamentary majority for either the prime minister's castration Brexit
or the extremist cash out Brexit,” argued Peoples Vote founder Hugo
Dixon.

“On the circumstances asking the people what
they want may be the only way to resolve the deadlock,” he said
pointing to growing support, including that of a former minister, for a
second vote. But some observers argued a new general election was more
likely before this.

Brexiteers were dealt another
blow when Britain’s electoral commission fined the pro-Brexit campaign
$100.000 for breaching spending rules during the referendum, though the
government made it clear this changed nothing of the outcome. “We are
very clear that this was a legitimate democratic exercise in which the
public delivered its opinion,” said May’s spokesperson.

But
it’s increasingly unclear what that opinion was, owing to the buyers
remorse which has further divided Britain. The premier also faced
criticism for hosting the U.S. president, who did her no favours by
suggesting it was uncertain what kind of a deal Britain and the United
States, the largest partner with which Britain has a trade surplus,
could strike after Brexit, and praising Boris Johnson, who had just
slammed the door, as someone who would make a great prime minister.

In
his departure speech this week Johnson stopped short of asking May to
step down but urged her to abandon her "miserable" exit plan, which he
said left the country in "permanent limbo". "It's not too late to save
Brexit," he said. Amid this uncertainty the worst case scenarios have
yet to hit the U.K.

The country was not slammed by
the feared recession since the Brexit vote, though the pound did slip
quite a bit, some financial businesses decided to relocate to Europe and
growth slipped somewhat. But growing trade tensions since the U.S.
election, punctuated by this week's American challenge of retaliatory
tariffs imposed by the EU, China and Canada, heralded a tougher period
ahead.

The EU is seeking to diversify by finalizing
a trade deal with Japan. Experts noted a stand alone U.K. would be
unlikely to reach a better deal, which covers a third of the global
economy, as for one thing it would not have the same negotiating
leverage. “The card the UK has traditionally played in Japan as being a
gateway to Europe is a very different one to sell now,” observed Paul
Cardwell of Strathclyde university.

Meanwhile all the
uncertainty has prompted some very interested parties to take action,
the CEO of Airbus saying he was activating his contingency plan as
London's Brexit plan seemed to be "unravelling" while the Irish leader
did the same before May visited the now contentious border. "We can't
make assumptions" the exit plan will fly, he said. "It's not evident...
that the government of Britain has the majority for any form of Brexit,
quite frankly."

Third time was the charm in Mexico where the election of leftist firebrand populist Lopez Obrador stands to shake politics and the country's relationship with its giant neighbor.

Fighting corruption and ending violence, two familiar promises south of the Rio Grande, dominated the campaign of the candidate who had come short in two earlier presidential elections and introduced a new political party, Morena, to Mexico's usual two-party dominated electoral portrait.

There was no shortage of reminders of the urgency of tackling these themes during a violent campaign marked by the killing of over 120 politicians and there was some relief voting day was spared further bloodshed. Obrador, who was heavily favored against the candidate of the outgoing Institutional Revolutionary Party, took 53% of the vote to the PRI's 16%, while the other traditional Mexican party, PAN, came in second with 22%.

Obrador has had to soften his at times hard line against Mexico's institutions, and has toured the country extensively to land this long awaited electoral victory, but some are skeptical about the turn of relations with its neighbor and biggest trade partner, despite an encouraging first exchange of pleasantries following's his sweeping electoral win.

Obrador, who was once very critical of his country's trade agreements, has agreed to maintain ongoing efforts to update Nafta, in fact seeking to have his people input right away in current negotiations with the outgoing president.

But Obrador's approach on fighting the drug trade causing much of the violence is less focused on the type of security operations so dear to the U.S. and more on social programs that he says would deal with the ills of poverty, drugs and crime hurting the nation. With a solid majority in the Mexican Congress, Obrador comes in with perhaps the strongest mandate of any Mexican president in decades, enabling him to radically transform his country's politics.

Riding a wave of popular anger against the ruling PRI Obrador vowed to "transform Mexico" and oust the "mafia of power". "I desire with all my soul to raise the greatness of our country on high," he declared after his electoral win, which despite having become predictable still left much of the establishment stunned.

"The changes will be profound but in accordance with establish order," he vowed. Shannon O'Neil of the Council of Foreign Relations told AP "He's been able to capture the mantle of the person who's on the outside who wants change."

How deep and sweeping these changes are remains to be seen, but Obrador has vowed to promote the welfare state and support the country's poorest, showing compassion for migrants who had been rounded up by the PRI, all the while showing fiscal responsibility.