First time Lasix, first time gelding, first time two turns, first time turf, and gets a new pilot. What I call the classic "shake up" horse. Like the breeding. Percentages of connections are higher than the ML %. Addition of Lasix could be explained by the last race. They tried to get to the front in last and that will not be a good idea here. If you are spreading in the race the %'s say to use. As a straight win, not for me. A saver bet, for sure. The fact that the win %'s of the connections are twice that of the ML say use, but lightly.

linrom1

01-31-2018, 02:23 PM

Why they would think this horse could even run on turf? But they got lucky, race taken of turf.

jay68802

01-31-2018, 02:38 PM

First time Lasix, first time gelding, first time two turns, first time turf, and gets a new pilot. What I call the classic "shake up" horse. Like the breeding. Percentages of connections are higher than the ML %. Addition of Lasix could be explained by the last race. They tried to get to the front in last and that will not be a good idea here. If you are spreading in the race the %'s say to use. As a straight win, not for me. A saver bet, for sure. The fact that the win %'s of the connections are twice that of the ML say use, but lightly.

Now that I look at the scratches, they have to beat the 3 out of the gate. Wire to wire or nothing. The 3 has not gone that fast and has offered no resistance when passed by others. Add the fact that the 5 can get the lead, another first for the horse and he has a good shot, but you will not get the odds. Odds dictate the play. Small bet as the favorite, mid size at 5-2 - 3-1, if over that I would take at most a $25.00 risk.

Robert Fischer

01-31-2018, 03:02 PM

:3: appears to be a 250k purchase who is being discarded. Has an 88 timeformUS early speed figure. However, has been running 9F turf with slow raw-timed paces. There's no guarantee that he'll be the early pace setter. Centeno will want forward.

The pace 'wildcard' is the :1: No 'potential' in the 1, but he's cheap mdn claimer through and through, and Bennett knows the circuit and opted to step this one up in class a bit. He has a timeformUS87 early pace fig, but it figures to translate with more certainty. The :1: is a contender.

:5: does have a million angles going for him. If some 'limiting factors' happen to be offset, he'll win for fun. The scratches here, and the expected disregard of the :1: mean that he'll probably be second choice in a field of four. Not a ton of wiggle room for value.

jay68802

01-31-2018, 04:51 PM

The 5 is the low double to the next race, 9-2 double odds with the 6 in the ninth. probably 2-1 or lower win odds. Playing a small Double 6 to the 5 for $10.