Lord Fraser questions the assumption that "the existing union must be maintained"

Nothing will stop Scotland from becoming an independent nation, a Tory peer has warned, questioning whether fighting to keep the union together is worth the effort.

Lord Fraser, a former minister in John Major's government, has launched a pamphlet with the think-tank Politeia. In it he writes: “All empirical evidence points to a break-up”, and he criticises the “little fresh thinking” among unionist politicians, warning that “the status quo points only to disaster”.

He dismissed the argument, put forward by politicians including David Cameron, that Scotland would lose its status in the EU, NATO and the UN if it became an independent nation. “[This argument] has more of an historical flavour than any grasp of the realities of the 21st century” he said.

Plans for a social union are "vague and imprecise", he said. "Unless clarified, they would make for loose policy", he warned.

Lord Fraser gave a gloomy outlook on the prospects of the Conservatives in Scotland. He observed that the party has “spiralled downwards” there over the last 50 years. With just one Tory MP in Scotland, Lord Fraser predicted there would be no recovery in the party’s fortunes:

“Is there a way back? That is doubtful, even with a name change… there is virtually no prospect of an overall majority.”

Scotland's independence referendum will take place by the end of 2014. Alex Salmond wants it to be held in the autumn of that year. The coalition at Westminster wants it to take place sooner, possibly as early as September 2013.

Here's a potted history of Scottish/English relations:

-

Close



of





After failing to crush the Caledonian tries, the Roman Emperor Hadrian erected a wall to protect his English colony.

1296: Edward I of England - the 'Hammer of the Scots' - invades and deposes Scotland's King John. William Wallace (see Braveheart) defeats the English at the Battle of Stirling Bridge.

1314: Edward I's son, Edward II, tries to break the siege of Stirling castle and reassert English control. He is defeated by Robert the Bruce at the Battle of Bannockburn - securing de facto independence for Scotland.
Scottish losses: between 400-4000
English losses: 700 cavalry, 4,000-11,000 infantry.

The first Parliament of Scotland meets in 1326 and in 1328 Edward III signs the Treaty of Northampton, recognising Scottish independence.

1587: Elizabeth I successfully orders the execution of Mary, Queen of scots. Elizabeth feared her Catholic cousin could become a rallying point for dissent and disturb England's religious stability.

1707: The flow of trade brought the English and Scottish parliaments together under the 1707 Act of Union - creating the new state of Great Britain.

1872: The world's first official international football match played between England and Scotland, hosted at Hamilton Crescent.
The patriotic fever whipped up by England v Scotland matches is still evident. In 1977, The Tartan Army invaded the Wembley pitch after beating England 2-1.

Under Thatcher, critics claimed the country was used as a Petri dish for free market experiments ahead of England.
Scotland was handed the poll tax in 1989 - one year ahead of England. More than 1.5m refused to pay the tax and the Scots hit the streets in protest - some travelled to London and protested outside Parliament.

Alex Salmond's Scottish National Party party took control of the legislature in 2011 - clearing the way for a referendum on full independence.