Do your best to enjoy today, because the weather starts to head downhill by tomorrow. The interesting thing about our warm weather is that it is accompanied by very dry air. Dew points have been as much as 40-50 degrees colder than the temperature. What does that mean? Well, the breezes make it feel a lot cooler than calm conditions and if you are prone to dry skin, you have definitely noticed. Our air mass will gradually moisten in the days ahead, but unfortunately that will also start to wipe out our sun by
tomorrow.

Today (Tuesday): Look for a general repeat of yesterday with lots of dominant sunshine, and the air should be slightly less dry with less breeziness too. So, this should be a fantastic day overall. Highs will range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Light and variable breezes around 5 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clear in the evening with clouds increasing overnight. This should keep temperatures a bit warmer with lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s (downtown). Light breezes. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Clouds will start to build stronger into the area, but the morning could see sun filtering through. We will still be in the warm air mass so look for highs in the upper 50s to around 60 along with light winds. There's a 30% chance of a shower or two around the area, but any precipitation will likely be more a miss than a hit. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy skies continue along with a 30% chance of light showers. Lows should hold in the 40s this time. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday could see some variable sky cover in the morning with some peeks of sun, but then heavier clouds arrive toward midday along with stronger rain chances by late afternoon (60% likelihood). Highs should range from the upper 50s to the low 60s again. Rain is more likely Thursday evening and night (70% chance) with lows in the 40s. The rain could be heavy at times. Confidence: Medium

Friday keeps the clouds with a 60% chance of mostly scattered and light rains. We should still keep the warm flow going though so highs should be in the upper 50s and we cannot rule out some 60-degree readings. More light rain on Friday night with lows in the 40s to even low 50s. Confidence: Low-to-Medium

The weekend is not looking like one of our better ones with more rain on the agenda. The latest thinking suggests that Saturday could see heavy rain, with additional amounts as high as 1" possible, and highs in the 60s. Combined with major snow melt in the higher elevations to the west, the rain may cause river rises in the days following (something to watch). Sunday should see more showers with breezy conditions and cooler highs in the 50s. Lows Sunday morning should be in the 40s. Confidence: Low-Medium

These warm but extremely dry days have helped alleviate the flood potential. It was 23 again this morning when I left Front Royal, but we had a good melt day yesterday. My guess is there is an inch or two of water equivalent left on the Blue Ridge and zip further down, so no chance of any 1996 floods on any rivers except the Potomac North Branch.

I have a student who is doing a science fair project on the relationship between types of clouds and precipitation. She is looking to interview a meteorologist for her project. Would one of you be willing to answer some questions via email?

sorry for the repost but it looks like this is the current thread...
*sigh*. I guess this is back to the usual forget-ever-hoping-for snow metro forecast. So, I guess all the magical weather is done for the season, CWG? I'm worried about the possibility of winds with this saturating rainfall forecast. Seems like every one of the past three springs I've lost big trees that have taken months to get cleaned up when the rainy, windy spring comes.

Erbele--I too worry about high rain totals because my basement is prone to getting wet. Given how saturated the ground is now from the melting snow, anything over 1.5" to 2" of rain is going to start the nail-biting process...

My guess is that with the mild temperatures over most of the period that the rains will be rather ample, but scattered...we will have showers or rain alternating with cloudy but rather dry periods. There could be more rain over the Blue Ridge and west of the mountains than here as we will tend to get a series of vorticity lobes rather than a huge slow vortex on our side of the system. Convection will increase Friday night/Saturday, but NWS Sterling is currently not too worried about thunder. We may have to watch this situation. Thunderstorms could bring brief heavy downpours if instability increases. Most of the early rain is from isentropic lift and may be light if it reaches the ground.

What a lovely day it is! Went out on my errands with no coat or jacket, and rolled down the window in the car. I've got a couple of windows open here at home for the first time this year :-) And my cat is diggin' the sunshine from the windowsill.

My allergies are killing me. I'm a hot mess with tearing eyes, scratchy throat, and runny nose. I'm a little surprised- it usually takes awhile with me to get this bad.
Got my prescription filled for allergy season and on my way to get it now, but not a fan of taking the stuff.