Comments

Phaneuf: Some guys play better in limited minutes. I believe Phaneuf is one of them. Less minutes means a better player in his case.

Gonchar: I think Spezza will be more of a second PP unit guy, no? Even if Spezza is on the point, that still means second powerplay time for Gonchar with a better second unit.

Dupuis: I figure Hornqvist plays with Malkin to replace Neal, and Dupuis slides back onto the first line with Crosby and Kunitz. Yes, his shooting percentage was high that season, but that's due to playing with the best player in the world

Lots of good comments. I'll just respond to them all in one post. I hope I don't miss anyone.

Pavelec: I've always believed that a true #1 NHL goalie should be good for at least 30 wins (in a non-injury year), if not 35. Pavelec had 29 a couple of years ago, and was on pace for 39 in the shortened season (although there was no way he was going to start every game in an 82-game season). Thirty is easily doable for Pavelec and 35 wouldn't surprise me.

Yaks and Hubs: I didn't include them because there's no where for them to really bounce back to. For example, if Hubs gets 40-45 points, I don't know if that's really a bounceback year (he was on pace for 50-something in the shortened season). I also don't have a lot of confidence either of those guys can bounce back more so than the other guys on this list.

I'm not sure I buy the "Phaneuf will be more fresh" with less minutes argument. It's been proven time and time again that TOI correlates heavily with point production (there are charts showing this at the beginning of most Dobber Guides).

Regarding Gonchar, Spezza is main candidate to play the point on that PP which means Gonchar could be riding the pine.

I would hesitate to include a 40 year old D on a list of bounce back candidates.

interesting piece but I have to respectfully disagree with a lot of the choices.

1 - Pavalec is simply a terrible goalie. He's been well below league average for almost all of his career. Bad players to not rebound, they just continue to be bad. As a Jet, Pavelec’s save percentage has never ranked in the top 30 league wide.

2 - Lupul & Dupuis - I would steer clear of using the seasons they shot at unsustainable rates as examples of what they can do. Dupuis is 35 and coming off a season ending knee injury. I wouldn't put a loonie on him bouncing back in any capacity. Dupuis could easily be shoved out by the younger and more talented Hornqvist.

As someone who has owned Lupul since 2007 on my dynasty team, I hope for this every year. but I've learned that it just doesn't happen. You ride him during the hot streaks, shut him down when he's cold. He's pretty decent for peripherals when he's not scoring though.