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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Euro Update: Yesterday's Call Blown, Targets Postponed or Negated

I was going to take today off, but I felt obligated to update Euro. In yesterday's update, I discussed the fact that Euro appeared ready for a deeper correction; however the wave I was anticipating fell well short of my expectations, and Euro found strong support right where it needed to. It's now formed an incredibly symmetrical reversal pattern, and is almost certainly headed to retest or (more likely) best the previous high.

In real-time, this pattern became apparent as it unfolded, but that doesn't do readers any good, and I apologize for blowing this one.

Note the bear hope that still remains is depicted by the alternate count. If this is the alternate count unfolding, that count is quite bearish, but I'm not going to pretend it's what I was expecting yesterday. The alternate count is, in fact, considerably more bearish than the count I had posted.

The white ABC forms a complete fractal, and that suggests the alternate count is lower probability -- but because these are fractals, a complete fractal sometimes only marks the first wave of an even larger fractal. A triangle would also not be entirely out of the question here, so be on alert for that pattern if the rally falls short of the previous highs and embarks on a deep correction.

It pays to be aware that if the Wave C low is broken in the near future, an extremely sharp decline is almost certain to ensue, and yesterday's targets will become active once again -- so if one is bullishly inclined, the stop-and-reverse (SAR) level is clear. On the other side of that coin, a break of the wave B high should lock-in the corrective nature of the decline.

My apologies again for reading this one wrong yesterday and I'll return with the equities updates tomorrow. Trade safe.

2 comments:

JH, I haven't been paying as much attention to action in the Euro as I do the Yen. So from that standpoint you could consider this comment as more or less coming from a guy who is just an interested observer... watching from the sidelines. I have no skin in the Euro game as it were, so my opinion here is totally rational and emotionless.

This type of post from you is pure gold. In no way should that be misconstrued to mean that your other posts aren't. All your posts are really in a league of their own my good man, but a post like this one wherein you just step up to the plate and say "Hey folks, I might have screwed up on my call yesterday and it now looks like XXXXX is more than likely going to be headed the other way instead"... man if that isn't a magnificent example of a person with ethics, a person who has a grip on reality and a genuine sense of courageous responsibility, I don't know what the hell is.

Apologize? There is nothing to apologize for, plain and simple. We all know what you mean though. We know where that sentiment comes from. But there is truly no need for apologies, especially in the business of putting forth enormous efforts trying to predict future price direction in markets that have so many inputs that to be "deadly accurate" is an impossibility. What you do on a day to day basis takes immense courage.

If there were 'any' reason why any analyst 'might' apologize, it 'might' be in a case where he unexpectedly came across evidence that suddenly suggested his call 'of yesterday' was probably wrong and he thought to himself "Oh to hell with it. I've already published one view... it's probably going to turn out wrong but to hell with it. I'm tired and what the heck do people expect from me anyway? Perfection?". And then he retires to get some much needed sleep. That's what happens 99% of the time when analysts have second thoughts. And even those analysts shouldn't even feel a need to apologize in my humble opinion. They certainly have the right to feel bad from time to time if they choose to, but to feel a little bit bad inside is one of the natural side-effects of applying our talents to an art where achieving perfection is an impossible goal. Prediction is an inexact science. You know that. We all know that.

So don't give it a second thought brother. Instead, you have more reason than any other analyst I know, myself included, to enjoy a nice stressless 3 day weekend for having posted an update as responsible as this one. But apologies are not required. We all know that. Now 'you' know that. :-)

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