"Jerry Jones is the only person who can actually fix this and he also might be the only person who doesn't know it is broken."- 12/30/13
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket

Monday, October 31, 2011

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” ― Mike Tyson

The Dallas Cowboys had a plan on Sunday night. And then they were hit several dozen times right in the face. Mike Tyson looked like an expert NFL analyst.

According to Cowboys' defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, that plan was his and it was all wrong. In fact, according to the very popular Mr Ryan, "It's ridiculous. I never gave our guys the chance. The whole -expletive- thing is on me. If I gave them any extra motivation, then I certainly didn't back it up. I gave our guys a lousy plan. I gave our guys no chance and it is all on me."

Of course, right there he is proving why he is one of the more popular coaches in the business. Because everyone knows he is only partially correct in his assessment of what went so horribly wrong in the Cowboys 34-7 humbling in Philadelphia. He is widely loved by his troops because he fires them up when they need to be fired up, and when things go wrong, he won't turn on them. He will fall on the sword to the masses and attempt to take the blame.

Sunday was said in this very space to be a bit of a mid-term exam for the new leader of the Cowboys defense. Regardless of how tough his paper is graded, there is no way to avoid a giant "F". The Eagles made the Cowboys defense look silly - scoring on all 6 of its drives in the first 3 quarters - before they offered some level of mercy in the 4th Quarter by running the ball to kill the clock. The game demonstrated eerie similarities to the last time the Cowboys played a Sunday Night affair days after the Rangers lost in the World Series last season. On that night, the Cowboys showed almost no resolve in losing 45-7 up in Green Bay. The next day, Wade Phillips was fired and Jason Garrett given the job to run this organization.

But, there is a distinct difference from the feeling that day. In 2010, the logic was that the Cowboys were beaten that badly because they quit. In some weird processing logic, this is worse - because there did not seem to be effort issues in Philadelphia. Rather just a flat out ambush of the highest order that went from the opening bell until the game was painfully played to its completion.

And at the very heart of the Cowboys' disaster was a defense that was believing it was improved well beyond 2010 standards and with many of the same cast members had put those unacceptable efforts behind them. And they felt that way with good reason. They were showing up well in all 6 of their games and had tangled with New England and minimized damaged quite well. In 2011, the Cowboys were up in the Top 5 for fewest "explosives" allowed (plays of 20 yards or more) with only 19 in 6 games including only 1 big run.

On Sunday night, that stat was tested against the big play ability of the Eagles. And the results were quite disappointing for Rob Ryan and his defense.

The 2nd play of the game was a Jeremy Maclin slant for 24 yards. The 4th play was a huge run from LeSean McCoy for 21 yards.

On their 2nd drive, McCoy ran through a hole that the Queen Mary would have fit through for 35 yards. 14-0, Eagles. On the third drive, Jason Avant caught a 20 yard pass on a great throw from Michael Vick behind the Linebackers (remember that trend) and the Eagles were in the endzone again. Early 2nd Quarter, 21-0, Eagles.

The 4th Eagles drive was only for 3 points, but included an explosive 22-yarder to Brent Celek the Tight End (also behind the linebackers) and another easy pitch and catch with Avant for 24 yards. 24-0 at the half.

Finally, one more explosive play of 22 yards from LeSean McCoy helped the Eagles score on their 6th consecutive drive. 34-0, Eagles. 7 explosives in 1 game. And, 3 more plays of 18-19 yards. 10 different plays of 18 yards or more against a Cowboys defense that thought they had shaken their problems with this issue. They were conceding just 3 big plays a game. So, to get sliced and diced like this will not soon be forgotten.

Rob Ryan can take the blame. And given his love of the camera, it is best that he does take the fall for this. But, there are no Rob Ryan apologies that can make his linebackers cover better in space. Keith Brooking and Bradie James, in particular, are targets for Vick, but really, if Sean Lee has a weakness, it is also pass defense. There is no excuse that can help us forget the way Jason Hatcher was caved in on a running play that required a better anchor in his spot. There was an issue with game planning, as every time that Ryan dialed up a blitz, Andy Reid and Michael Vick were waiting for it and had the perfect counter in place. But, the execution of his defense was reprehensible. Tackling was very poor. Coverage appeared to be guesswork. The defensive front was not nearly effective enough.

Even DeMarcus Ware, who was credited with 4 sacks, did not have much of an impact on the outcome of the game itself. 3 of his sacks came after the game was already decided. In fact, Ware seemed to be the center piece of the Eagles game-plan. They called pass after pass to TEs who were assigned to bait Ware with pass protection blocks only to let him pass and Vick would feather a pass right over his head to a TE for an easy 10-15 yards down the center of the field. It happened over and over with both Celek and even his backup Clayton Harbour got in the act, too.

Stopping the run was just a dream in Philadelphia, too. One logical counter early for troubles in standing their ground on running downs would have been nose tackle Josh Brent assisting in the proceedings. Instead, he stood in sweat pants on the sideline as he was deactivated on game day so that the Cowboys could dress "kickoff specialist" David Buehler and carry 2 kickers on a night where they would only have 2 kickoffs. Dressing Buehler, a man with a very strong foot, but evidently cannot fill in at punter in the event Mat McBriar needs an understudy (like last night) and cannot kick field goals with any level of consistency, is like installing a $10,000 home theater in a tent. It is nice to have, but shouldn't that resource be used to get out of the tent? The Cowboys have holes that need fortification on game night way more than they need a guy who only can kickoff the football after scores.

The defensive game-plan actually seemed logical all week. Timely blitzes sprinkled in with an overall concept of stopping McCoy on the ground and keeping DeSean Jackson and Maclin from going over the top for a quick and easy strike. Make Avant and Celek beat you. Believe your "front 7" can deal with McCoy. Test Michael Vick's patience to keep checking down and eventually he will throw into double coverage so you will have a chance to get turnovers. But, then your blitzes open the flood gates and you cannot even come close to slowing down the run game. Everything went wrong.

In the end, the ambush was so thorough and decisive that the game-plan never left the garage. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown for Philadelphia out of the gate and suddenly the Cowboys game-plan didn't matter because the offense was having no success, either. The offense didn't help as they countered the Eagles first 6 scoring drives with punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, and punt for their own. That will simply get you a failing grade across the board.

A complete and unquestioned show of strength against a formidable Eagles team that had struggled in the most ideal month to struggle - September. But as the calendar turns to November, they appear in a fine position to still walk away with the NFC East. Dallas, on the other hand, must wonder if their patterns of win-loss-win-loss will carry them right to a 8-8 record of mediocrity.

The Cowboys now begin a month of winnable match-ups before the tests begin again in December. As they prepare for Seattle next week, their confidence will be shaken badly after the hide-tanning they just received. And, even though it won't stop him from talking next time, Ryan will certainly think twice before he writes checks that his defense is not capable of cashing.

The discussions of the defense being much better in 2011 will have to be put on hold after this thrashing.

Friday, October 28, 2011

As a long-time believer in Rob Ryan and the entire Ryan family's approach to defense in the NFL, I have been pleased with the progress of the defense and the overall look that the ship has been steadied after a season where the Dallas Cowboys had set historical lows for points allowed.

But, Sunday night in Philadelphia represents a wonderful test for this defense to see if they have really put their "big play" issues behind them. And if you are looking for specifics or just a refresher on how bad things were in the months before Big Rob was hired here, let's review.

Last season the Cowboys were scored on more times than any edition of Dallas Cowboys football EVER. 436 points against was an all-time low for this franchise, and at 27.3 points a game, they rated 3rd worst, behind only 1960 (the expansion year) and 1962. In the entire NFL last year, only Denver was scored upon more than the once mighty Dallas defense.

2010 was also a year in which the Cowboys conceded the 2nd most yards in franchise history both on a total yards (5,885) and a per game (367.8) basis. Only 1985 was worse in each category.

With those historic lows in mind, you can certainly understand why many considered wholesale changes to be necessary. But, for reasons that can only be speculated upon, the Cowboys made only very subtle moves to their defensive personnel: Olshansky out/Kenyon Coleman in; Alan Ball back to 4th corner/Abe Elam signed to 1 year deal; and an expanded role for Sean Lee at the expense of Bradie James.

Otherwise, it was the deployment of those very same troops that would be the selling point for any improvement. How Wade Phillips and then Paul Pasqualoni used those same players were only going to be footnotes, because the complex packages and alignments of Ryan's scheme were ready to take the field.

One giant issue with installing such a defense was the NFL lockout. The early part of 2011 was thought to be a giant advantage to the teams who were not making large changes to their coaching staffs. But, the teams in this league that have to implement major overhauls to their squads were not going to have time to teach and install. The lockout said that would not be possible. In fact, the acquisition of new players was also going to be done on the fly and late in the summer. Coleman was signed on July 30th and Elam inked on August 4th. Both joining from Cleveland, they could be used to teach the scheme to the Cowboys, but it was all going to have to happen quickly.

So, going in, the thought process would be that the complexities of Ryan's defense were going to have to be learned as they go into the season. The phrase used was that "this defense would improve as the season went along".

After 6 games, the Cowboys defense has had the game in a fine position nearly every week. They played well enough to beat all of their opponents, but due to some generosity from the offense and in particular the QB Tony Romo, the results don't quite validate the major improvements that have been seen. The points against have dropped to 21.3 a game, but even that number is misleading with all of the non-defensive points conceded (interception returns for TDs, punt blocked for TD).

But, from breaking down the defense and simply trying to grade them on their own merits, the point could be made that the product is way better and poised to make a move in the middle of the 2011 campaign. The biggest and most notable improvements can be found in "big plays" conceded. In the NFL, an "explosive" is defined as a 20-yard play or more. Surely, this is an arbitrary number and 19-yard plays hurt, too, but the industry has settled on 20+. And, in 2010, the Cowboys gave up 69 explosives in 16 games (12 big runs, 57 big passes). That means 4.3 times per game, their defense was coughing up 20 yards a clip. The 27th ranking in the NFL had them surrounded by other non-playoff teams (St Louis, Arizona, Oakland, Washington, Jacksonville, and Denver) and the most unlikely playoff team in NFL History, the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks.

Meanwhile, playoff teams averaged just 54 "explosives" a season (3.3 a game). Pittsburgh gave up just 36 all year on their way to the Super Bowl. So, if the standard is 54, and you have given up 69, then the math is rather simple. You must figure out a way to cut out 1 20-yard play from the opposition every single Sunday to get into the playoff mix. It is just one number in a complex equation, but if they could do that, one would have to consider Rob Ryan a success - especially considering their were no significant expenditures made to make the defense better.

Remember, the feeling by many of a high-risk defense being brought here was that while a risky blitz was being shown, wouldn't a team concede even more big plays in the back if it is not installed right and performed by the right players? In short, could Rob Ryan take Wade's players and run his own scheme to produce better results?

In 2010, the Cowboys blitzed QBs with defensive backs on 50 occasions for the entire season. In 2011, the Cowboys are at 49 through 6 games. The risks are higher, but the results are better, too.

At least the early returns say so. Through 6 games, the Cowboys have allowed just 19 explosives. 1 20-yard run and 18 20-yard passes. Over 6 games, that averages out to 3.1 per game. Over the season that would be about 51. If the magic number is 54, then the Cowboys are actually ahead of schedule. And with Tom Brady and Megatron already in the rearview mirror, this number could improve looking at Seattle, Buffalo, Washington, Miami, and Arizona in the next 6 games.

But first, maybe the team that is most "explosive" must be dealt with. We saw first hand what Philadelphia was capable of doing last December in Arlington as Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson played so well that Tashard Choice wanted Vick's autograph. Jackson tallied 210 yards on just 4 catches in that game and the question certainly was raised about whether Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy were simply too quick for the Cowboys defense as they racked up 429 yards of offense and 30 points in a road win.

Will Rob Ryan have a plan to back up his talk for Philadelphia on Sunday night? I expect he has something special planned for Vick and company. He'd better. Andy Reid is 12-0 off of the bye week, and the Eagles have had this game circled for sometime.

Consider it a mid-term exam to see how far the 2011 defense has truly come. As October games go, this should be excellent stuff.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Dallas Mavericks have won the NBA Championship already this summer, and the Texas Rangers are on the verge with just 1 win to go to grab the first World Series in their history. This could put Dallas-Fort Worth into rare company as a sports market that has 2 champions in the 4 major sports in the same calendar year. But, how rare is the feat?

According to research, since World War II, this has happened 11 other times. Rare, but hardly unheard of. Here is a quick trip at the last 66 years in the "Big 4" and those luckiest of cities:

1956 - In October, the New York Yankees defeated the Brooklyn Dodgers at Ebbets Field in a Game 7 to secure yet another World Championship in a series that contained Don Larsen's "Perfect Game" in Game 5. 2 months later, the 1956 New York Giants won the NFL Title by drubbing the Chicago Bears, 47-7, at Yankee Stadium.

1969 - Super Bowl III started off 1969 on January 12th, and saw the upstart New York Jets represent the AFL's big demolition of the Baltimore Colts. Later that summer, the Amazing Mets would beat the Baltimore Orioles in the World Series and secure the 2nd World Title of the year for New York City.

1970 - Baltimore would have its revenge as Brooks Robinson would lead the Orioles to their World title in October, and 3 months later, the Colts would defeat the Cowboys in Super Bowl V. This is where we must distinguish the "calendar year" of 1970 to include Super Bowls won in Jan of a year and the football season of that year where the Super Bowl is actually played in the next year. Both should count, but this one is different than most of the others.

1979 - Pittsburgh has actually pulled this double off twice, and has the interesting distinction of winning both the 1979 Super Bowl against the Cowboys, the 1979 World Series as the "We are Family" Pirates defeated Baltimore, and the 1980 Super Bowl (1979 season) against the Rams. For a city the size of Pittsburgh, what an amazing accomplishment.

1986 - The Mets struck again in 1986 against the Red Sox in one of the more celebrated World Series match-ups of our lifetime - thanks to Bill Buckner and the Red Sox meltdown. At the exact same time, the 1986 Giants were on their way to Pasadena for Super Bowl 21 where they would take down the Denver Broncos in January of 1987. Compared to 1969, this demonstrates the unfair advantage New York, Los Angeles, and the "Bay Area" have over most other cities. With multiple entrants in each sport, their odds are significantly increased over Pittsburgh or DFW.

1988 - Our first basketball/baseball double is found in '88 when Kirk Gibson and the Dodgers defeated Oakland with a memorable home run just a few months after the Los Angeles Lakers fought off the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Finals best remembered for Isiah Thomas limping up the floor with a severe ankle injury that he attempted to play through.

1989 - The very next year, the Oakland A's finally did win their World Series against San Francisco in the famous "Earthquake Series" which had a 12 day lay-off between Games 2 and 3 because of the quake that hit northern California. That quake is noted as the first earthquake ever shown on live television because of the World Series broadcast prior to Game 3. The 1988 San Francisco 49ers won their Super Bowl in January of 1989 against the Bengals and the 1989 49ers won their Super Bowl in January of 1990, and with the Raiders in Los Angeles during that time, it is easy to assume the A's and 49ers shared many fans during that successful time.

2000 - Since nobody in New York City seem to have even the slightest regard for the New Jersey Devils, this one is more of a technicality, but in 2000 the Devils won the Stanley Cup (with the clincher at Reunion Arena in Dallas) and the New York Yankees defeated the crosstown New York Mets in the Fall Classic. That January, the Giants would come very close as well, but lost the Super Bowl handily to the Baltimore Ravens.

2002 - Two years later, the Los Angeles Lakers were completing their "3-Peat" of Shaq and Kobe harmony and down the road in Anaheim the Angels were defeating the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. As you can see, this list is made up of quite a few cities that have 2 baseball teams and 2 basketball teams. And in the case of New York City, 3 hockey teams can increase your odds quite a bit.

2004 - New England win the Super Bowl in Houston against the Carolina Panthers in January of 2004, later that summer, the Red Sox defeat the St Louis Cardinals in the World Series in their first championship since 1918. Then, 3 months later, the Patriots won again in Jacksonville against the Philadelphia Eagles. Much like 1979 in Pittsburgh and 1989 in the Bay Area, 3 titles in 13 months.

2009 - And on the 30th anniversary of Pittsburgh championship year, they did it again. This time the Pittsburgh Steelers started the year with a dramatic Super Bowl victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the final seconds. Then, 5 months later, the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to defeat the Detroit Red Wings in a Game 7 in Detroit to secure the cities 2nd spot on this list of great distinction.

So, there you have it. The Rangers can put the metroplex on this list with 1 more win. But, what might make DFW the most unique of them all? The idea that none of these cities on this list also hosted a Super Bowl in the same year. But, Cowboys Stadium did in February - even though the Cowboys were nowhere to be found. Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and a World Series in the same city in the same calendar year is something that has never happened. Further, only 1969 would share the distinction with both the Mets and Jets winning their first title in their histories, just like the Mavericks and Rangers would accomplish.

But, it is all contingent on winning 1 more game in St Louis for the Rangers.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Today, let's breakdown the success of the running game from Sunday and allow this offensive line to spend the week gaining confidence. We now see the truth that Joe Avezzano always tried to proclaim when we used to do some television together years ago: "The other guys pay their players, too". His premise was always that we would become so myopic about the Cowboys and their success or failure that we would never ask the question that coaches ask every waking hour of the day: "What about that other team on the field?".

The reason that this should be expressed this week is that in the last two weeks, the offensive line has played the best and the worst in the NFL in Vince Wilfork for New England and what sure appeared to be sub-standard talent and sub-standard effort from the very poor St Louis Rams. When a mediocre talent level is not expressing the same will and desire as their opponent, blowouts happen (as do 300-yard rushing days). We saw the Cowboys seem to give up last October, and there is no question that sort of thing cannot be tolerated. A fired coach or fired players (or both) is generally the only remedy for that.

Nevertheless, the NFL does require that you play the team in front of you. Of, the Cowboys 5 biggest runs on Sunday, 4 of them happened after halftime where the Rams seemed to be quickly heading to the airport to get out of Dodge. But, I want to encourage you to click on the photos of the 91-yard touchdown run from the 1st Quarter so we can take a look at how a run can be perfectly executed.

The Situation: 1st Down and 19 to go. Dallas at their own 9 yard line. Dallas has "regular" or "21" personnel in the game. Murray, Fiammetta, Witten, Bryant, and Austin as the 5 skill players.

Witten is flexed right - away from the Right tackle - where the Rams must consider him a very likely primary read in the event that this is a passing play. The Cowboys love to put their opponents in this pickle, although they prefer it be on 1st and 10 rather than 1st and 19. On 1st and 19, your safeties will often be happy to concede a 5 yard run and assume a offensive play-caller is going to be itchy to get all of those yards back quickly.

This run/pass option has been seen a thousand times if you follow the Cowboys. The famous touchdown in Houston last year is an example of the exact same concept where Tony Romo sees the pass on the outside and opts to throw the ball. I recommend you follow the link to that play for last season and experience the play from the pass option standpoint to really get an appreciation for the complexities of 1 play and why training camp is so important to a team to be able to explore the countless options on 1 single play.

On the run/pass option draw, the blockers are 100% committed to the run option. They cannot concern themselves with whatever Romo decides to do. Their job is to sell that they are pass protecting to their opponents so that their opponent will fall into the trap of edge rushing upfield. This is what the offense wants from the Defensive Ends. Allow them to take the edge and to take themselves out of possible rushing lanes. This is done by having each tackle simply turn their body towards the near sidelines and the defensive ends will generally do the rest. On this particular play, 3 of the 4 Rams DL fall for the bait. The LDE, RDE (James Hall), and RDT (Fred Robbins) require almost no blocking whatsoever - simply for 68-Free, 77-Smith, and 63-Kosier to step aside.

Then, with those 3 cleared out, it becomes quite easy to double team with 67-Costa and 64-Holland on Gary Gibson. Murray is following his FB Tony Fiammetta into the right "A" gap. ("A" gap is more defensive terminology, but let's try to keep this simple for now - "A" Gap is the gap between the center and each guard).

And now, the success of the play - or why this play can either go for 3 yards or 91 yards falls to 4 players besides DeMarco Murray. 82-Jason Witten, 24-Tony Fiammetta, and two Rams, 27-Quintin Mikell, and 20-Darian Stewart. Fiammetta's lead block on 55-James Laurinaitis is very impressive and demonstrates his strength and potential as a Fullback. But, what I am drawn to more and more was the job that Witten does on a far more difficult block. Blocking is all about leverage and position. If I want to rebound a basketball, I need inside position and to keep my defender from getting inside me to the rim. In football, the rim is always moving, because the ball carrier is what I am trying to protect from my defender. Much more difficult, and the officials are making sure I don't hold.

So, for Witten to seal the position on 57-Chris Chamberlain, when Chamberlain has inside position on Witten shows us two things. 1 - that Chamberlain is far more concerned about Witten in a pass route. Until the very end, he appears to be squared up to counter whatever pass route Witten is about to run. He saw the offensive line in a posture to pass protect and quickly deduced that this is a pass play. By the time he figures out that Witten is not running a route, but attempting to seal him off from Murray, it is too late. Chamberlain has fallen into the trap. 2 - Witten is an excellent blocker and understands to use his threat as a receiver to his advantage. It is very subtle, but when you watch the end zone camera, it shows that he is still pretty solid at blocking. And that is why people consider him the best "all-around" tight end of this decade. Others can catch the ball and challenge downfield more, but he does it all.

Meanwhile, here is another lesson in Running Backs versus Safeties in the open field. As a defense, you hope that this doesn't happen very often, because the safety is at a distinct disadvantage to start the play 10-15 yards deep and to have to make a 1-on-1 tackle in the open field. But, wow, Stewart is just a blur as he takes a poor angle and isn't even close on his attack. Mikell is at least in the picture, but Murray's cutback makes Mikell look like a garden gnome. You have to really appreciate Murray's decisive cutbacks. He plants his foot and goes. There is no question once he gets an idea of where he is going next. We saw this all day on Sunday. And Quintin Mikell, a player I thought would help the safety position in Dallas this summer, is proving that against the run, he is not very skilled. There were several other plays on Sunday where he took poor angles and missed tackles. And when a safety misses a tackle, there is usually nobody behind him to clean up his mess.

91 yards where 11 players are working in concert very well. Even Dez Bryant helps with a convoy to the endzone and we get to see Murray and Bryant sprinting next to each-other. This is the type of play that makes the film room happy. Murray did receive much of the credit, but there are plenty of good grades to go around here. Textbook stuff.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Why would a football fan want to dig deeper and learn more about the inner workings of their football team? To simply understand better why your team does what it does. Surely, those of us who have never played in the NFL do not know more than the coaches and players on the teams we follow. Even though you think you know more about football than Jason Garrett or Tony Romo, I would imagine they could explain the concepts of their offense and the defenses they face a bit better than you.

Therefore, in this space, every week we try to learn more. I am certainly no coach, but I spend a fair amount of time talking to those who are so that I can learn more about this game I love. In turn, I use this blog to attempt to share those concepts with you so that you can enjoy the game from a deeper perspective than simply looking at your fantasy football roster and cheering for more yards.

We want to know why yards are gained. We want to know why match-ups are exposed and how a team can do that. We want to know what player combinations are really working for the Cowboys and which one is not. In effect, we just want to know more. We want to understand the thinking of the coach. And if we can figure out why he made a certain decision, then we can surmise what he is telling us about his own team or his opponent. Admittedly, some of this exercise is deduction and guesswork, but those who have been reading these studies for the 4 years we have been cataloging all of the snaps of the Cowboys offense seem to enjoy the theories and discussions. So join us!

The first thing we have to have a great grasp of in these discussions will always be personnel groupings. Bear with me if you have heard this, but we want to go slowly for those new to the topic.

Personnel groupings are the very first question any coordinator needs to know when looking at a play. The substitutions in football are seldom about a player being tired and needing rest. Instead, the substitutions before every play in the NFL are almost always another chapter in the chess match between an Offensive Coordinator (OC) and his adversary, the Defensive Coordinator (DC) on the other sideline or booth.

If you put on 4 Wide Receivers, I must put on 4 defensive backs (plus a safety or two behind us) to be able to matchup. If I don't, Tom Brady will see that I am trying to ask a LB like Sean Lee to run with a WR, and he will instantly find him in coverage as his first read. This is how the NFL has evolved in the last generation. In the 1970's, all 11 offensive players played nearly every down. But now, an offense will play between 15-18 players in a game - even without any substitutions to the 6 that always remain the same.

Those 6 (QB, LT, LG, C, RG, RT) are givens when we look at personnel. Every play, every team in the NFL has the same 6 players on the field for every play. So, the only thing we are concerned about are the remaining 5 players. But, you might be surprised to know how many different combinations a team can use with those 5 skill guys on their offense. And your defense has to counter those subs in just seconds before the play starts. You may wonder why there is sometimes confusion on your defense, but it is not as easy as it looks. Especially when the offense tries to rush to the line and cause more chaos.

With those remaining 5 options, some teams (like New Orleans and Green Bay) like to go with all 5 WRs in certain spots to spread you out. But, at the goal line, a team often goes with 2 RBs and 3 TEs. There are countless options, but the groups are simple. "11" means 1 RB and 1 TE, so you add those 2 numbers together (1+1 = 2) and subtract that number from 5 to get how many WRs are on the field at the time. (11 will mean 3 WRs, of course).

Do you get it? In all of the packages, the first number is the number of RBs, the second number is the total number of TEs. And "S" means Shotgun. So, when you watch the game on tv, you can easily identify the package before the snap to see what Garrett is doing.

I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

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As we discussed yesterday (and an item that will remain a theme for quite a while around here), the Cowboys discovered a run game on Sunday against the Rams. There were 4 circumstances that were variables from the earlier part of the season, and we expanded on each of those variables yesterday, so I recommend you check out that piece if you are interested in knowing more.

Basically, the 4 variables were: DeMarco Murray as a full-time back, Montrae Holland replacing Bill Nagy at left guard, Tony Fiammetta offering the Cowboys a true blocking full back, and perhaps most importantly, their opponent - the worst rushing defense in the league - the St Louis Rams.

As the Cowboys break down the film, they will be trying to decide which of those 4 variables were most responsible and whether the fantastic results were merely an opponent-based mirage. Regardless, you will see below the numbers of an ideal Sunday at the office. To keep your offense on schedule, you must have results on 1st and 10. And on Sunday, the Cowboys were outstanding on 1st Down. This requires the ability to move the football on the ground most Sundays. 1st and 10 is such an important spot for a coach where you want to give yourself a chance on 2nd and 3rd downs by staying out of "blitz" situations.

The NFL average for yards to go on 2nd Down is 7.95, and although that doesn't sound like much, the football world is so much different in 2nd and 7 than it is in 2nd and 10. On Sunday, the Cowboys had 1st and 10 on 30 occasions, and their average yards to go on 2nd down was a season low 6.59. That is off the charts fantastic.

They also were never in Shotgun against the Rams. In effect, the Cowboys ran the ball so well (or the Rams were so awful on the ground at stopping Dallas, that Dallas never had to ask tough questions of their passing game. It was something the Cowboys haven't had since Aikman/Emmitt in the 1990's - a "run first" offense. Only pass when you want to pass; not because you have to pass because it is 3rd and 13 again. The game is so different there.

Data from Week 5

SHOTGUN SNAPS-We track this because Garrett wants a balanced offense. If you are in shotgun, you pass the ball about 85% of the time. So, too much shotgun means that you are getting away from the quest for balance. It also can mean that you have little faith in your OL and want your QB to have a chance.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. On Sunday, the Cowboys ran the ball because they were running the ball with great effectiveness:

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Total: 70 Drives - 33 Run/37 Pass 47% Run

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Let's talk about the most successful personnel grouping of the week: "21" personnel was off the charts. This is the most basic personnel package in football. Coaches don't often call it "21", even though most coaches use the numbering system for every other grouping. At practice, you will hear the coaches call out "11" or "22" or "12" personnel all of the time before a snap. But, when it comes to "21" personnel, the coaches will often yell out, "regular! regular!"

"21" is regular personnel and the stem of the giant flower. It is what we all grew up with. A running back, a full back, a tight end, and 2 wide receivers. But, it is quite irregular to the Cowboys offense. So much so that against the Jets, Lions, and Patriots, the Cowboys had 0 snaps from regular personnel. But, on Sunday, with a healthy Tony Fiammetta, the Cowboys ran 12 plays from regular. 6 run plays for 158 yards, and 6 pass plays for 60 yards. The 6 run plays resulted in a Touchdown (the long Murray run) and the 6 pass plays accounted for another (the 2nd half TD to Dez).

This game will pad the stats and grow the confidence, but like last week, we must remember that this is not a normal opponent. You don't have to play Tom Brady and Vince Wilfork every week, but you also don't get to play the Rams every week, either.

Learn what you can and then get ready for Philadelphia. They are resting on their bye week and will no-doubt be jacked up for war on Sunday Night in their friendly environment.

Tomorrow, let's break down a few impact plays with discussions of X's and O's. And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Monday, October 24, 2011

The Cowboys were able to play the ultimate "get well" game against a team that is lousy at full strength, but without their own starting QB, the St Louis Rams might as well have saved gas and stayed put on Sunday. Instead, they joined their local baseball team in travels to Arlington, Texas, and also joined the Cardinals in defeat on Sunday afternoon. But, unlike the Cardinals, the nature of the Rams defeat was such that one could certainly call into question the conviction that many of the players - especially on that Rams' defense in the 2nd half - possessed once the game started to get away from them.

Nevertheless, the Cowboys must play the 16 opponents set up in front of them, and thanks to the rotation of the NFL schedule that allows them to play Seattle, Miami, and Arizona in the next little stretch, there should be more of these performances ahead. The type where one must clearly understand the object of the game is not to accumulate style points. Simply to exit the stadium in relatively solid health and most importantly with the win.

There is no question the big discussion about the events at Cowboys Stadium on Sunday revolve around the play of the running game. The running game has stunted the growth of this offense at every turn. Before Sunday, the Cowboys were amongst the very worst teams in the NFL in many rushing categories.

Anyway you slice it, they cannot run the football and that was on full display against the New England Patriots when Dallas could have won if they simply could move the chains on the ground.

Luckily, here comes St Louis. A team who has a defense that so happens to rank 32nd in the NFL when it comes to conceding yards on the ground. While the rest of the NFL averages 111 yards per game on the ground, St Louis allows 161, which is absolute worst in the league.

It was weakness against weakness. A team that cannot run versus a team that cannot stop the run. Something would have to give.

And that is when we saw one of the 9 greatest rushing performances in the history of the sport, and the greatest single game performance in the history of this storied franchise.

DeMarco Murray, the 71st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, was certainly a workhorse at Oklahoma. This issue is often considered a red flag to some draft gurus, as the premise can sometimes be recited that "a RB can take only so many hits in his career" and if there is too much punishment sustained at the college level then the fear can sometimes be that there is a little tread gone on his tires. The life span of a professional RB is always under huge debate, and somehow the workload debate can be twisted to where many carries and proving endurance can actually be used against a player. It truly makes no sense.

Murray carried the ball 759 times at Oklahoma and caught another 157 passes. That total equals 916 touches at the big time level in 4 years at Oklahoma. Compare that to Felix Jones (the 22nd pick of the 2008 draft), who the Cowboys knew was a part-time back at Arkansas. As a Razorback who backed up Darren McFadden, Jones totaled 425 touches at Arkansas, or 46% of the workload of Murray. Jones' busiest year was 2006 with 169 touches. Murray eclipsed that total every year in Norman except for his freshman year.

Clearly stated, Felix Jones has always seemed miscast as a full-time back that could take 20 touches and remain healthy. He has never been asked to do it until the NFL, a place where your durability and resolve will be tested at the ultimate level. Murray had a rap for being banged up at Norman quite a bit, but his workload reveals that he played enough to have nearly 1,000 touches. His predecessor at Oklahoma had that same rap, and Adrian Peterson has survived pretty well in the NFL, too.

Back to yesterday - a day where he ran the ball 25 times for 253 yards - that gave us a look at his ability to take the ball again and again. The yardage will likely prove to be an anomaly. Historic yardage totals on that level are seldom accomplished, let alone repeated. But, what I liked were the sequences where he would take the ball on 4 consecutive snaps and appear up for the beating. Save for the large run in which he inexplicably fell down 2 yards short of Emmitt Smith's record, he seemed ready to take the ball anytime Jason Garrett wanted to give it to him.

And that might be a conclusion that can be drawn. When Felix Jones is back to full strength, one can surmise that Murray is the full time back and Felix is properly cast as the 3rd Down back and the change of pace option in the offense - not the other way around.

Beyond that, did Murray have a magical idea that Jones did not when it came to rushing the ball? A great football mind once told me that rushing the ball is about 33% on the RB and about 67% on the blocking and timing of the play - something a RB has very little do say about.

So, let's look at that 67% and speculate why the running game worked against the Rams when it has been such an achilles heel elsewhere in the season.

Aside from playing the worst rushing defense in the NFL, there were 2 other differences on Sunday from the rest of the sample that should be considered. The first is the reemergence of Tony Fiammetta at the Fullback position. Fiammetta is a rather anonymous NFL fullback, but it is not lost on the coaching staff that the two games he was available (Washington and St Louis), the Cowboys ran the ball with great effectiveness and ease. The four games he was unavailable, the Cowboys tried John Phillips at fullback, and were unable to run at all. Nobody is suggesting that Fiammetta is great and Phillips is awful. It may be a sample size coincidence, but it was clear on the 91-yard Touchdown that Fiammetta knew how to lock up a LB with a lead block. And the evidence is on the paper through 6 games. Fix your eyes on these:

In 2011, the Cowboys have run the ball from under center 137 times. 87 times they had either no FB or a TE trying to play Fullback. On those 87 carries, the Cowboys gained 235 yards, or a paltry 2.7 yards per carry. But, on the 50 occasions the Cowboys attempted to run the ball behind Fiammetta, they have gained 414 yards. 8.28 per carry! I am not foolish enough to suggest that those sample sizes could endure, but I also think it would be foolish to not draw some conclusions. And I guarantee the coaching staff is working on that right now.

The other difference is the re-signing of Montrae Holland to play Left Guard. Surely, nobody thought Holland was Steve Hutchinson or Alan Faneca in their primes, but he is also no Bill Nagy. He is a serviceable NFL veteran who can at least play near the league average. Is he in great shape? No. Is he the long-term answer? No. But, he is better than a rookie who hardly started in college. And that was evident yesterday as they pulled big #64 a number of times to open holes with the Cowboys "G-Power" routine and got back to man blocking more, rather than their new zone blocking schemes that have yet to pay dividends.

So, add the Rams to DeMarco Murray to Tony Fiammetta to Montrae Holland and perhaps the sum total is that the Cowboys have found a running game.

Perhaps.

The true test will be to prove it was not a anomaly that emerged for 1 game like the big rushing day in Indianapolis last year (215 yards) against another sorry run defense. After that day, similar conclusions were drawn about the progress of the running game before we saw that it was never duplicated. The Eagles will look at the film and make their plans for Sunday night.

It will be interesting to see if Murray behind Fiammetta is as heavily featured as it should be.

Friday, October 21, 2011

If a week in DFW sports has taught us any truth that continues to be pounded, it is that managers and coaches have many crucial decisions to make in their games. There are millions of eyeballs watching these decisions. And as long as every decision is proven to be correct, they will escape criticism from those who observe.

But, the second one of these decisions goes wrong, guys like me grab their laptops and prepare to unleash our fury - knowing full well that we really seldom ever know that the decision is wrong. Simply that the decision did not lead to the proper outcome of the sporting event that they are managing.

And yet, the media and fans - despite knowing this absurd standard of perfection that is expected - seldom ever change up our routines, because it is simply how everything works. Who needs logic when we have an easy target when our team doesn't win?

I have no idea if Ron Washington and Jason Garrett know each-other or just live in parallel universes about 500 yards apart in Arlington. But, in the last week, they are both on stages where they have been reduced by many as nearly unqualified for their own jobs. And it is all "outcome based" logic.

For Garrett, it is back-to-back weeks with back-to-back scenarios that are near identical. 4-minute drills against Detroit and New England with slim leads and about 4 minutes to play and a 3-point lead. In either game, if they can move the chains once or twice, the lead is salted away and the game is won. His choice is whether he should run the clock while running the ball (against all logic which indicates that the team is unable to run the ball) or roll the dice and take a shot over a defense that is sitting on the run.

So, against Detroit, the decision is to take a shot down-field and to go for the kill. His logic is proven sound since Jason Witten is matched up against a slower defender and appears open down the middle for what could be a touchdown with a proper throw. But, the play breaks down when Kyle Kosier and Doug Free cannot hold up in pass protection, collapsing the pocket around Tony Romo. Romo decides to throw the ball despite being forced to a back-foot posture and the ball is under-thrown and intercepted.

Poor decision, coach.

The very next week, the same coach realizes that depending on his OL for pass protection late in a game might not be any wiser than depending on his QB to make a great decision in a split second. So he opts for close-to-the-vest. He wants to run the ball and run the clock. If he can find 3-5 yards after 2 run plays, his offense will surely look for a high-percentage pass on 3rd and reasonable. Instead, the decision looks ridiculous when a simple run play loses major yardage - compounded by another penalty - and quickly, it becomes 3rd and 18.

Poor decision, coach.

But, it was the exact opposite decision? How can this be? Because neither worked. It wasn't the decision that anyone had a problem with. It was the outcome. The Cowboys lost both games.

His neighbor from across the parking lot can surely relate. Ron Washington had 2 incredibly high leverage situations in the first 2 nights of the World Series. Does he pitch to Nick-blanking-Punto or no? Does he respect the 8-hole batter for the Cardinals or work around him to get to the pitcher/pinch hitter spot in St Louis?

In Game 1, Washington opts to anger the masses by treating Punto and Albert Pujols the same way, and carefully walks Punto to get to pinch hitter Allen Craig. Of course, since Craig singles in 2-runs off the untouchable Alexei Ogando, it is the wrong decision, skip. You make Punto beat you.

Poor decision, Wash.

So, as baseball seems to do, the exact scenario is duplicated the next night.

Here comes Punto in Game 2. 2 outs. David Freese on 1st base. Colby Lewis has been brilliant all night. But, with Punto next, he can either force Tony LaRussa to bring on Craig, or go after Nick-blanking-Punto and get out of the inning. So, Colby does the opposite of what Washington decided the night before. Clearly, this will work.

Except, Punto lined to center field and the rally was on. Next, Craig amazingly gets another hit off Ogando, and St Louis takes a 1-0 lead in which it seems evident that 1 run is all it would take.

Poor decision, Wash.

Yes, the exact opposite decision was also wrong. Why? Because Ogando couldn't erase Craig either night. If he works around Punto, it is wrong. If he challenges Punto, it is wrong. Basically, if Ogando can't retire Allen Craig either night, then Washington is wrong.

But, I suppose the sports gods giveth, as well.

Because in the 9th, the aggressive Rangers get the breaks they need. Kinsler swipes 2nd by an inch. So they are "aggressive". If he is out by an inch, they (and their manager) are "reckless". Pujols misses a cut-off throw, so Washington was a good manager last night. LaRussa, of course, was not. His team lost. So, bad decisions, skip.

These guys make decisions, and so do the rest of us. But, most of us make decisions like whether we should have a burger or pizza tonight with the family. Millions of eyeballs don't and won't care. And then, this weekend, we will act like we have all of the answers that these guys don't when their teams take the fields in Arlington.

We shall all be ready to 2nd guess again. They will make many decisions to attempt to get their teams a victory. And provided the players they trust deliver, they will face no further scrutiny. But, the second a decision doesn't deliver it will be time to unleash that fury again.

Just remember; the only way they can win with you is if they do, in fact, win.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Every week, I want to take some looks at the X's and O's of a crucial sequence in the past Cowboys game. By now, everybody knows what happened, but let's visit about WHY it happened.

Today, I want to take a look at the portion of the game that decided the game but is being largely ignored beneath the spotlight of Garrett/Romo/playcalling talk in Dallas. The final New England drive is our focus and I will attempt to dissect it from a standpoint of how the Cowboys approached each play and if we can find out if they could have attempted anything different or how they might have forced a better outcome.

Click on the picture above to see the video of the final drive.

2:311/10/20 New England in S12, Dallas in nickel

On 1st Down, Brady is in shotgun and releases the ball in 1.7 seconds. The Cowboys blitz 5 – with Lee and Brooking coming, and Spencer falling into coverage - but are unable to get there in that short amount of time and Brady has options open in each flat. On the left, he has Wes Welker wide open at the 23 yard line as Deion Branch has freed Welker with a bit of a pick play and Orlando Scandrick is a full 5 yards off of him. Instead, Brady elects to go to Aaron Hernandez who is being played “off and soft” man coverage by Terence Newman. Hernandez catches the ball at the 25, but by the time Newman is able to get him to the ground, he has run for a 16 yard gain. It seems to appear Spencer should have been in the passing lane and he seems a bit confused at first about where he is supposed to be. 16 yard gain in just a few short seconds.

2:071/10/36

The 2nd play in hurry-up keeps all the personnel identical. This time, Rob Ryan sends 4 players at Brady, but all are attacking single-team matchups from left tackle to right guard. In fact, Ryan tries a rush where DeMarcus Ware is against LT Matt Light and Spencer takes on LG Logan Mankins. Spencer beats Mankins with no problem whatsoever. But, again, Brady gets rid of the ball as Spencer reaches him at 1.8 seconds, and he fires an easy (for him) completion. This time he finds his other Tight End, Rob Gronkowski, matched up in shallow coverage by Sean Lee. Lee has had a tremendous year, but this is his toughest assignment – coverage with tight ends in space. A simple 5 yards square out pattern turns into an 11-yard gain as Gronkowski runs a precise route and is hit with a perfect throw under duress. Yet another 1st down and the clock stops at 2:02.

2:021/10/47

This extra play right before the 2-minute warning is another exercise in taking advantage of soft corners. Brady sees the Cowboys in a zone and gets the ball quickly to Welker on the left edge. Frank Walker and Mike Jenkins close quickly, but an easy 5 yard gain on 1st down takes the Patriots to the 2 minute warning. On this play, Abram Elam is going to come on a safety blitz to try and get pressure. However, Brady gets rid of the ball in 0.5 seconds and there is no pressure scheme in the world that has a chance in that scenario.

1:572/5/D48

On the 1st play out of the 2-min warning, Dallas is able to change personnel and get reorganized. They are facing the same 11 from the Patriots with Branch, Welker, Woodhead (at RB), Hernandez, and Gronkowski. This time the Cowboys attempt a fire-zone blitz approach where they still send 4, but Ware drops into coverage on the TE in the left flat and Butler, Spencer, Lee, and Ratliff try to get to Brady. Again, that seems to be an exercise in futility. Brady does hold the ball for 2.0 seconds, but in that time, he finds his man – Wes Welker – who has wiggled open from the right slot. Scandrick is in tight press coverage with Sensabaugh helping over the top, but the precision of the throw and route again make this a rather simple conversion for New England. Welker is pushed out of bounds on the right sideline at the 38 and Scandrick looks annoyed at Sensabaugh. It is difficult to speculate what he is mad about because safety help would generally not apply to a simple 5-yard out pattern. However, the touchdown play later shows Sensabaugh closing on the out so it seems plausible that Scandrick is right. 1st Down again, and with 1:52 left, the Patriots actually realize they are driving too quickly.

1:521/10/38

For the 3rd time in 5 plays, Ryan sends a blitz. This is one of his more exotic types and if there is a play in this sequence that will trouble the Cowboys in the film room, I imagine it is this one. The Cowboys blitz both DBs from Brady’s right (Scandrick and Elam) along with Ware, Ratliff, and Lee. However, on this play, Lee even bails once he occupies his lineman for a second and takes Brian Waters attention. Waters does a great job of finding Scandrick after Lee bails out and picks up the blitzer that was about to nail Brady. That was a potential game-saving play by the new Patriots Right Guard because Scandrick had a chance to blindside Brady and perhaps free the ball. Instead, Waters gets Scandrick, and Brady, after holding the ball for 3.3 seconds, wiggles free to find Whitehead in the flat for 8 yards. A very frustrating play for the Cowboys because it was a great design and it did confuse the Patriots. They were just quick enough to sort through it. I do wonder if Lee keeps occupying Waters if Scandrick gets there, but Ryan wanted sound coverage underneath so he had Lee back out to the shallow middle to hopefully defend a dump off. It just didn’t work.

1:222/2/30

The Cowboys play this 2nd and short completely straight up. They rush the 4 and have the corners in press coverage. Brady knows that when this happens he is looking to his slot for Welker, and Welker is putting an inside move on Scandrick who is up on him. Brady throws it at 1.6 seconds and tries to lead Welker. Scandrick is sitting on it and does a nice job of breaking up the pass. With his right arm He is flirting with a flag with his left arm and Welker definitely wants one, but the play falls to incomplete and sets up a 3rd Down and short.

1:203/2/30

Here, Brady has an automatic with his center where they will attempt to spread the Cowboys out with their look and then if Brady feels he can get there, it will simply be a QB sneak for the 1st Down. Ratliff tried to shoot the A-gap and stop the play, but was unable to get enough of Brady. 1st Down for the Patriots. Matt Light looked like he hurt himself, and somehow Brady’s sneak is credited for 3 yards to the 27.

0:571/10/27

This play shows how the Patriots can drive you nuts. Danny Woodhead is 5’8, 195 pounds. His blitz pick-up ability is very minimal, and yet he lines up next to Tom Brady in a place where you normally are thinking in the 2-minute offense that his job is to clean up protection issues and occasionally leak out of the backfield as a target. In New England, they have so much confidence in their ability to get rid of the ball before you can get to the QB, that Woodhead seldom seems to hit anything. But, when you forget about him, he finds a spot and makes you pay. Also, what LB is going to be able to bring him down in space with 5 yards between them? Not very many. Brady hits him at 2.2 seconds, and Woodhead simply runs down the middle fo the field to the 14 before Lee and Scandrick wrestle him down. That play works even better if they catch the Cowboys in a blitz, but Dallas sent just 4. And it still sliced them for 13 important yards. Brady has 5 options and he uses them all.

0:361/10/14

Now, the Cowboys are chasing their tail and the Patriots smell blood. The clock is running down and Ryan backs off and drops 8 while rushing just 3. No problems here as Brady hits Welker inside down to the 8 against Scandrick in a play that was the same route that Scandrick broke up 3 plays ago. 2.2 seconds for Brady to release the ball again. Timeout New England. The announcers invoke terms like “Vintage Brady” and “Joe Montana-like”.

0:272/4/8

And now, the kill shot. Ryan tries something that has worked for him in the past against Brady and Drew Brees. Rush 2, drop 9. Require a perfect throw against heavy coverage to concede a Touchdown. Ryan is thinking he just needs to get 2 stops and he can at least force overtime. Well, Brady puts 2 TEs to the left and 2 WRs to the right. The Cowboys drop 9 in a zone underneath where the idea is to get Bradie James, Jay Ratliff, and Anthony Spencer in passing lanes. Brady throws the ball at 2.8 seconds with all kinds of time. Ratliff leaps to try to knock down the ball, but misses as Brady threads the needle and puts the ball in a perfect spot to Aaron Hernandez in the back of the end zone. The coverage by Mike Jenkins was solid and it sure looked like he had a chance to knock the ball down. Another look at the play shows that Brady wanted Gronkowski as the primary in another 5 yard out against Sean Lee. But, Sensabaugh was double teaming that route, so Brady simply reads the safety and threw the other direction. Hernandez was not open, but a big-time throw made that fact irrelevant. 0:22 left and the Patriots took the lead and the win.

10 plays, 80 yards, 2:09.

A masterpiece where you see the strength of New England on full display. In the end, the Cowboys had a chance at a sack twice that they barely missed, but otherwise, when Brady is that pinpoint, the only thing you can do is not put him in that position.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

I count it a great pleasure to be writing now at Fox Sports, but I will submit that I may offer a slightly different approach to Cowboys coverage than some. On Tuesdays and Wednesdays, I attempt to wade through a fair amount of data and X's and O's discussions that if you are familiar with my work, you will be comfortable with. However, if this is the first time you have ever spent anytime with my works, then you may require a small amount of background.

Tuesday and Wednesday are times reserved for diving into things like personnel groupings and formations. There are plenty of places where discussions about whether Tony Romo and Jason Garrett like each-other take place, but here, we want to evaluate the team without prejudice and simply look at what they do well and what they don't do well. What their tendencies are and how their performance in a single game matches what they like to do over the course of the year.

For all of this data to make sense, it is important you understand what a personnel grouping is and why it matters. Every down of nearly every game, players move on and off to the field. This is not random and it is almost never because of fatigue. These substitutions on both sides of the ball are primarily to find match-ups that lead to success.

I readily admit that it would be best to do this work in August when we can learn during the preseason, but since I arrived at Fox Sports in October, let's do the best we can. I would recommend that if the numbers below are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

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Let's turn our attention now to the New England game. So much has been discussed about this offense and there are many mitigating circumstances that must be considered. The offensive line in particular is in no shape right now it appears to run block or pass protect for 7 step drops. So, what we are seeing - partly because of performance and partly because Jason Garrett is trying to keep the OL out of bad situations - is an offense that cannot run most of its playbook.

What we are left with are a few runs and a few long-developing pass plays, mixed in with mostly quick hitting pass plays on 3 and 5 step drops (to help the OL pass protect) and a series of screen plays and swing routes to underneath receivers. The OL group, despite having a substantially different lineup than in 2010, shares many of the same issues as its predecessor.

They simply have no success running the ball. And although it is fun to debate which RB is better than another, when a line is regularly being pushed back into the RB at the time of the handoff, it just doesn't matter if Emmitt Smith in his prime is back there. And that is where we are right now.

I broke down all of the run plays from the start of the 2009 season until now. With 39 games of data, we can see that the Cowboys have gone from a good running team to maybe the worst in the NFL in 2 short years. Now, we are only considering run plays in run formations. I don't like to count running the ball out of shotgun on 3rd and long. If it is 3rd and 18 and the Cowboys give the ball to Tashard Choice on a draw for 8 yards, that run will look good in the stats, but we both know that it is a deceiving 8 yards. Also, a Tony Romo 17 yard scramble on a pass play is not a run play at all.

What we want is run plays that were called in the huddle or at the line of scrimmage. The QB is under center and the defense is not playing 100% pass. The defense diagnoses run and you still run the ball right at them. In 2009, the Cowboys were very good at this, and in 2010 and 2011, they are flat-out horrible. Here are the scary numbers:

I put in 2 columns for 2011 because the Cowboys have actually had a FB for a little more than 1 game with Tony Fiammetta. Fiammetta has not played enough for anyone to know his true quality, but it should be noted that the game he played a great deal was also the game where the Cowboys ran with great success. So, the first number for 2011 is every carry from under center, and the 2nd number represents the Cowboys running without Fiammetta. As you can see, despite our regard for John Phillips as a make-shift FB, this team cannot run the ball in those situations at all.

2.71 yards per carry is what the Cowboys are able to accomplish right now on the ground because of their young and mediocre offensive line. This rips out much of the playbook. What is left is often high-percentage quick pass plays, because it stands to reason that if Vince Wilfork can toss Bill Nagy and/or Phil Costa aside in running plays, he can do the same thing on his inside pass rush path to Romo.

And that is why you don't see very many balls getting to Miles Austin or Dez Bryant. Because the WRs have no time to run routes before Romo has to get rid of the ball. We thought this was going to improve in 2011, but the reality is that it might actually be worse.

Data from Week 5

SHOTGUN SNAPS-We track this because Garrett wants a balanced offense. If you are in shotgun, you pass the ball about 85% of the time. So, too much shotgun means that you are getting away from the quest for balance. It also can mean that you have little faith in your OL and want your QB to have a chance.

Here is the Game Data from Week 5: The run/pass splits indicate where they think they can find success. The average yards to go on 2nd down were very good. But, once again, 3rd down conversions continue to haunt the Cowboys. Dallas is 22 of 64 on 3rd Downs this season for 34% and rank 20th in the NFL.

Real quick way to understand groupings - The 1st number is the total number of RBs. The 2nd number is TEs. So, "12" personnel is 1 RB and 2 TEs. Again, that link above will really help you get familiar with these groups. It is important to know them if you want to understand why defenses decide to tailor their personnel against certain groups. Also, "S" in the grouping always means "Shotgun".

Pay special attention to "13" personnel. This is the group with Jason Witten, Martellus Bennett, and John Phillips all on the field at the same time. It should be effective for running the ball, because that means 5 OL and 3 TE for 8 big blocking options for Felix Jones. But, as you can see below, they attempted 9 runs and totaled just 12 yards. Pitiful. As a whole, if you subtract Romo's big scramble, the team accounted for just 60 yards on 23 carries. Only 2.6 yards per carry. Actually worse than their season totals - even though that wasn't thought possible.

Bottom line for this offense right now is that they can only attempt what they have the strength to accomplish. It is easy and common to blame the Head Coach and the Quarterback for everything that goes south. That is what the NFL is all about. But, a quick look at the realities of what they are working with (Garrett surely had a say in personnel matters, but we don't know how much) suggests that until these issues are solved with quality talent at important spots, the Cowboys will continue to struggle against opponents who have a strength on the defensive front. The good news is that Vince Wilfork doesn't play for St Louis.

Tomorrow, let's break down a few impact plays with discussions of X's and O's.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Very few fan bases in the NFL have the audacity to be outraged on the night that their team played on the road as a huge underdog and nearly pulled off the upset. To play a team that is expected to be in the Super Bowl by many experts at their place and have them on the ropes for most of the afternoon is usually the cause for some level of encouragement this early in the season. After all, cross-conference games in mid-October in the NFL have very little permanent effects. They are a chance to measure yourself in a hostile stadium and find out how your franchise can deal with the best in the business on their terms.

Of course, in Dallas, that isn't how things work.

Here, the sniff of a victory comes with the demand for one. If this team came close to showing the NFL that they can handle any situation, then it better leave with the "W" or it will only serve the populace with yet another piece of evidence that their QB or coach or both are not worthy of the uniform. Those of us who cover the team year after year know that the only thing that satisfies the angry loyalists is victory. There is no middle ground. Either the Cowboys win or they are all bums.

And that is where we will have to agree to disagree. There are 31 potential opponents for the Cowboys when the schedule is released, and 62 scenarios in which to play them (31 home, 31 away). Most NFL experts would likely agree that the most difficult of those 62 scenarios is At New England and when the schedule was released, anyone that felt that the Cowboys would win this contest was being extremely optimistic.

Yet, Dallas showed that they have the ability to play with New England and have a chance to win in the end. Once the dust settles, I would think that important accomplishment will reveal to those that follow this team that the Cowboys are still positioned to accomplish many of its goals in 2011.

On the other hand, working that hard on a Sunday afternoon and leaving with only the encouragement that better days are ahead is seldom enough to satisfy the masses. The Cowboys, for the 5th time in 2011, were in a great position to win the game and for the 3rd time saw a 4th Quarter lead turned to defeat. That is tough to stomach for anyone who pulls for the Cowboys.

And at the heart of the disappointment is yet another offensive head-scratcher. Such an occasion shows that all roads again lead back again to everyone's favorite past-time of battering Tony Romo and Jason Garrett at the water cooler.

Following another spectacular defensive play from Sean Lee in a 13-13 game with 9:00 to play, the Cowboys drove the ball down the field and appeared to be poised to grab the game by the scruff of the neck. But, as the trend has recently revealed, many of the Cowboys deficiencies (offensive line, offensive line, offensive line) come to the surface in the red zone and show their ugly head. Not only do we know that, but the Cowboys know it, too - which is why they don't even try half of what they would like to try and their opponents know it - which is why they don't respect the threat of the Cowboys running the ball. They know Jason Garrett is not crazy enough to waste a down.

So, the obvious conclusion for many would be: "If the offense cannot run the ball because of the OL, then why not pass the ball?" And that is where we can only speculate, because we know what happens when they run the ball (20 carries for 52 yards on runs from running formations for 2.6 yards per carry), but when they pass the ball, the statistics are quite favorable. What isn't always revealed about those statistics is your QB's faith in the offensive line to pass protect, and your coach's faith in his QB to make the right reads when the chips are down. What is causing the team to get ultra conservative in the red zone and ultra conservative in the 4-minute drill will not be revealed publicly, so we are left only to speculate and draw our own conclusions.

1st and Goal from the 10 with 6:25 to play, the Cowboys call a TE Screen to Martellus Bennett. This is an attempt to make the Patriots pay for over-pursuit and too much attention to Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten. The play pushes the Cowboys to the 5-yard line, and sets up 2nd and Goal. It also lost Bill Nagy, the Cowboys' left guard who had been thrown around all day like a rag doll by Vince Wilfork and friends, to a broken leg. That meant Kevin Kowalksi - he of 19 NFL plays - would take over in that position to Romo's immediate left that has been a disaster all afternoon. Romo knows this and Garrett knows this. They have to be mindful of a potential stick of dynamite under their noses that is ready to explode.

2nd and Goal from the 5. Here is the play that seems to be somewhat overlooked as everyone focuses on the ensuing 3rd Down. On this play, Dez Bryant is in man coverage on the left flank and it seems to scream to both sides that the fade that Bryant generally wins is the call. But, in the pre-snap, a 2nd DB looks like he is going to offer help on the fade pattern, and Romo decides to dump the ball off to Tashard Choice underneath rather than risk the lead and throw into potential double coverage.

This is the decision that sports-talk radio and newspaper columns make look really easy. It is 2nd down. It is 13-13. You are on the road and you have a chance at a real big win. You are about to leave with the lead as long as you don't screw it up. If he makes the wrong decision here and throws a pick, he gets roasted. So, he does what he has been asked to do - check down in risky situations. The right decision that he will see today in the film room is that there was no double coverage (just the look that there might be) and the fade to Bryant was his throw. Instead, the ball falls incomplete at the feet of Choice, and it is now 3rd and goal from the 5.

Now, on 3rd and goal from the 5, the Cowboys shift to the idea of not taking points off the board. Is it conservative? Of course, it is. It is with a enemy stadium pulsating, a rookie seeing his first real action in a crucial spot in front of one of the more elite defensive tackles in football, and a QB who is noticeably cognizant of his ribs, his recent history, and the importance of not screwing this up. Jason Garrett calls the notorious shovel pass to Choice, hoping to catch the Patriots aggressive defense in some manner of over-pursuit. As crazy as it sounds, it almost worked as every Patriot in front of the play is accounted for. But, the backside leaked as Brandon Spikes destroyed the play from behind and the Cowboys settled for their go-ahead Field Goal.

A golden opportunity at 7 points is somewhat conceded for the safe result of taking a 3-point road lead with 5 minutes to play.

From there, the defense forces another 3 and out, and a Patriots punt with 3:36 to go. The Cowboys are now a 4-minute drill from icing this game away.

When running the 4-minute drill, the object of the game is to nurse home a lead. This is practiced league-wide as a situation where you have a lead and the ball. If you can run about 8-10 plays, the game is over - even if the opponent has timeouts. You simply want to run the clock and shorten the game. No points are needed, so obviously, you really want to be careful here. The obvious issues with this is that your opponent is playing the percentages and they are selling out to stop the run since that is what everyone does.

Those who sit home and play Madden will tell you it is a perfect time to break out the passing attack, but about 32 of 32 NFL coaches would have done the exact same thing that Garrett did here. Run, Run, Run. Of course, 32 teams are not running the ball as poorly as the Cowboys. In fact, almost nobody is running as poorly as the Cowboys in situations where you have to run the ball. And this is the problem. As much as everyone wants to talk play-calling and QB play, the issues in the red zone and the 4-minute drill come back to the fact that this team cannot run the ball and has no faith in its offensive line right now.

Could you imagine the amount of grief Garrett would take if he called 3 passes and the Cowboys possession there lasted 15 seconds while not causing the Patriots to use any timeouts? It is a classic case of he is going to be picked apart no matter what he calls if the Cowboys don't move the chains two more times. Instead, they faced a 3rd and 18, ran a draw play, punted, and put the ball in the hands of Tom Brady with plenty of time to march down the field and get the win.

Until these issues get fixed, Romo and Garrett will continue to get hammered for their alleged incompetence. But I would imagine most NFL coaches and scouts, who can see these issues clearly and that are not affected with sports-talk narratives and rooting allegiances, would admit that the Cowboys are in a real pickle right now. They cannot run a large part of their offense because their personnel dictates their decision making. And by losing Nagy for the rest of the year, the lack of depth on the interior of the OL only worsens with no solution in sight. Surely, Andre Gurode and maybe Brian Waters are getting a chuckle from the developments.

Yes, the play-calling needs to improve at times. Yes, the QB play is a real issue at times. But, I cannot believe most people ignore the fact that the personnel on this offensive line is inadequate. They turned over quite a bit of the 2010 OL that so underperformed, but in watching Wilfork, Kyle Love, and Albert Haynesworth devour the interior of the Cowboys offense, it became very evident that "different" doesn't always mean "better". It might mean cheaper, though.

Leonard Davis and Marc Colombo had to go. Gurode likely did not. Waters wanted to play here after Kansas City cut him loose. Instead, the Cowboys elected to set sail with undrafted center Phil Costa, and 7th round rookie Bill Nagy. Yes, they were different, but they were not better. They could develop into something better, but while they learn to play in the NFL, the Cowboys must tailor their offense around them. The moves smacked of financial considerations rather than jobs won. And for that, the Cowboys lose a game that was sitting there ready to be won.

5 games in, and the youth movement on the offensive line is appearing to be a real achilles heel. Tyron Smith appears to be a stud-in-waiting, and if he was the only rookie on the OL, like New England with their RT Nate Solder, then Romo and his skill players would have a chance. Instead, the personnel/financial department of the team took a real chance at a youth movement. And the results are bad and getting worse.

But, even so, one more positive play would have meant victory in Foxsboro. And that is what is so frustrating to those around the squad. The offensive line logic in the offseason seems to have put a real leash on how good this team could be this year. This appears to be a game that was lost in August, thanks to the way the roster was handcuffed.

The NFL is tough enough. Nobody wins in New England. So, you certainly don't need to be inflicting wounds on yourself.