The Democrats

A good start

A disciplined Congress and an interesting candidate, but the hard stuff comes now

THIS is springtime for America's Democrats. They have made a confident and impressive start in Congress, which they took over on January 4th after 12 years in the minority. George Bush is reeling from the catastrophe unfolding in Iraq, his latest scheme for correcting his mistakes condemned by almost everyone. And one of the most refreshing hopefuls for many years, Barack Obama, on January 16th in effect announced his intention to become America's first black president. When Hillary Clinton weighs in, as she is sure to do in a matter of days, the Democrats will have two ground-breaking candidates for voters to choose from.

Mr Obama (see article), though short on experience, is long on charisma and unbeatable for oratorical flair; Mrs Clinton rather the reverse. But the fortunes of whichever of them emerges on top will depend at least in part on voters' perceptions of the Democrats in general. And for that the behaviour of the new majorities in Congress will be crucial.

As The Economist went to press, America's new House of Representatives was preparing to vote on the last of the six pledges its first female speaker had campaigned on, in less than half the promised 100 hours. Nancy Pelosi's Democrats have passed bills to raise the minimum wage, enact all the recommendations of the 9/11 report on security, extend federal funding to stem-cell research, bring down the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly and cut the interest rate on student loans, with a vote to end subsidies to big oil companies under debate. All these need to pass through the Senate, where the Democrats have only a 51-49 majority, and could then be vetoed by Mr Bush. But the House bills have all won backing from unexpectedly high numbers of Republican rebels, making Senate passage much more likely and a presidential veto much more embarrassing. Ms Pelosi seems to have adroitly captured the centre ground of American politics, and the smarter sort of Republican, with an eye to re-election in 2008, is happy to be seen in her company.

Equally significant is what Ms Pelosi has not done. Despite the rumours, there has been no flurry of subpoenas from Capitol Hill. Hearings there will doubtless be on everything from Iraq to the links between big oil and the administration. But the Democrats have avoided an ugly immediate show of partisan strength, which should please a public tired of political bickering. True, they are pressing for a non-binding vote against Mr Bush's unpopular new plan for a “surge” into Iraq. This newspaper disagrees with them on that, but even here the grandstanding is limited. A non-binding vote is just that: the Democrats are too sensible to threaten anything that could backfire on them, such as cutting off funds.

Can Ms Pelosi and her gang of moderates continue to hold the centre ground? So far, they have done the easy stuff—five relatively uncontroversial bills (not including stem cells) plus a widely welcomed reform of the House's own ethics rules that neither the Senate nor the president can monkey with. There are tougher times ahead. The new crop of Democrats includes a good number of protectionists who would like nothing better than to pick fights with Mr Bush over China or NAFTA. Mr Bush has cannily endorsed the Democrats' call for a balanced budget by 2012, which puts them in the awkward position of having to vote to raise taxes or cut spending, or both.

Left, right and Nancy's centre

If Ms Pelosi can restrain her left wing, the Democrat-held centre ground will be an excellent position from which Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton can fight. None of the plausible Republican candidates can occupy it so easily. Some, like Senator John McCain or Rudy Giuliani, an ex-mayor of New York, are out of kilter with the majority of Americans over Iraq, besides having difficulties with their own party base on “values” matters. Others, like ex-governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, are in hock to the conservative right. Just now, the Democrats look distinctly well-positioned.