After weeks of speculation, the deal really occurred today: the Utah Jazz officially traded Enes Kanter and Steve Novak to the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for a protected future 1st round pick from OKC[ref]More details on this later in the article.[/ref], a 2017 2nd round pick from the Detroit Pistons, Kendrick Perkins, the rights to FC Barcelona C Tibor Pleiss, and the rights to Tulsa 66ers F/C Grant Jerrett. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo was the first to report the trade.

How the trade occurred

Just 8 days ago, Enes Kanter made his trade wishes known publicly for the first time after the Jazz’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks.[ref]I covered what led up to that situation in this article, so this piece will focus largely on the week leading up to the deadline and the breakdown of the trade itself.[/ref] While Utah was very much internally looking at the possibility of trading Kanter before his comments, going public pushed Utah into acting aggressively to find a deal. The Jazz front office insisted that Enes’ demands did not change what they were willing to accept in a trade, but the feeling was that his comments made a long-lasting positive relationship less likely.

As the Jazz shopped Kanter, they looked to teams who had expressed previous interest in Kanter, who had a clear need for a big man, or had assets the Jazz really wanted to acquire. Oklahoma City was on the list largely due to the first factor alone. Oklahoma City had expressed interest earlier in the year, but while Kanter’s a good young big man, the Thunder already have a pretty solid rotation of Serge Ibaka, Stephen Adams, Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, Mitch McGary, and Perry Jones. All 6 of those bigs but Collison and Perkins are young.

Furthermore, the Thunder have a hodgepodge of assets that don’t really fit the Jazz’s situation, as we discovered in the trade itself. The Jazz aren’t fans of Jeremy Lamb’s game or potential, especially defensively. Reggie Jackson was a malcontent expiring without a jump shot. If the Jazz were going to acquire him, then they’d almost certainly want to match any offers he received in free agency, and they weren’t willing to commit long term to a core of Jackson/Exum/Hayward/Favors/Gobert, of whom only one can shoot.

Undeterred by this asset mismatch, the Jazz put together an offer to Oklahoma City early in the week which was discussed back and forth until the very final moments of the trade deadline, including as OKC continued to explore a deal with Brooklyn for Brook Lopez. As Quin Snyder explained, “There wasn’t any kind of watershed moment.” It was clear that this was a possibility all along.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t other offers. The Jazz had the opportunity to join the PG trade wheel as well today as part of a Kanter trade, but ultimately chose to keep Trey Burke and move Kanter in this deal. They like Trey’s attitude, and note that young PGs sometimes take several seasons to develop. They also liked adding more flexibility for this year’s offseason through the trade that occurred, rather than removing flexibility in the other offers presented. Ultimately, Oklahoma City’s desire to add Kanter forced the match.

Breaking down the deal

So what was involved in this trade? Let’s break it down, piece by piece, in order of importance.

Enes Kanter out.

Ultimately, this deal never would have occurred without Enes Kanter’s impending restricted free agency. Just like with the Deron Williams trade 4 years ago, the Jazz sought the relative security of known assets over the possibility that an important player would leave without a return. As Dennis Lindsey explained today, “We concede Enes is a very significant player, and he’s going to get a great contract, deservedly so, given his talent and his work ethic. But there’s 20 teams potentially with $10 million or more in room, so there’s some economics there, some supply and demand there.”

The Jazz felt that with the great number of teams with a large amount of cap space, Enes Kanter was going to get a deal for 10 million or dollars more per season. Essentially, Lindsey concluded, “We can’t pay everybody 10 million plus. We had to look at some hard, cold facts.”

The Jazz have already given long-term contracts to Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, and even Alec Burks at that amount or more, but felt that Enes Kanter couldn’t be trusted at that dollar amount, due to a confluence of his poor defensive numbers, his poor work sharing the ball[ref]Even in Quin Snyder’s new passing oriented system, Kanter only had 26 assists on the season[/ref], and the inconsistent attitude of both Kanter and his agent, Max Ergul. There’s a sense that Utah might be better with Kanter off the floor than on it, given his rather unimpressive plus-minus numbers during the course of his career.

And unlike with Hayward, Favors, and Burks, Utah felt comfortable turning to the rest of the roster for support. Dennis Lindsey felt both Gobert and Favors had surprised him with their growth, saying “Certainly, Rudy’s exponential growth, we didn’t expect that, I didn’t expect that, but you’ve got to react to it and acknowledge it a little bit.” and “I didn’t expect Derrick developing the power forward skills that he has today.” It was time to reward their work with the positions and roles they deserved.

Oklahoma City’s 1st round pick in.

The short version: Oklahoma City will give the first-non lottery pick that comes at least 2 years after the Thunder fulfill their obligations to trade a 1st round pick to Philadelphia. If that doesn’t happen by 2020, the Jazz will receive 2 2nd round picks.

The long version: In the Dion Waiters trade, Oklahoma City gave a first round pick to Cleveland that was protected for selections 1-18 in 2015, 1-15 in 2016, and 1-15 in 2017, then turns into 2 2nd round picks after that. The Cavaliers then flipped that to Denver in the Timofey Mozgov deal. The Nuggets then flipped that to Philadelphia in the JaVale McGee deal today.

Because of the horrendous ruin Cavaliers owner Ted Stepien caused when trading batches of first round picks in the 80s, there’s now a rule that says teams can’t trade more than consecutive 1st round picks. So the Jazz will have to wait 2 years after the Thunder give this pick to Philly in order to receive theirs. The Thunder currently have the 17th worst record in the NBA, so as of today, they would not give a pick to the Sixers, and therefore not have to give a pick to the Jazz until 2018 at the earliest. However, if the Thunder improve in the last 25 or so games[ref]With everybody healthy and Enes Kanter in the fold, it might be likely.[/ref] and get to the 19th pick, then the Jazz would receive OKC’s 2017 1st round pick.

That is, unless the Thunder were in the lottery. Then, the Jazz would not acquire the pick until the next year that the Thunder made the playoffs. The Jazz feel confident enough in OKC’s management that, regardless of Kevin Durant’s future in OKC, the team will likely be in the playoffs between 2016-17 and by 2019-2020, before the 1st round pick would sadly fall into 2 2nds. [ref] The best-case scenario for the Jazz might be this: The Thunder improve enough to be a top-12 team this season. Kevin Durant leaves in 2016 to a Eastern Conference team, say, Washington. Westbrook and Ibaka remain under contract until 2016-17, which might make the Thunder good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to be a top team. It’s complicated.[/ref]

It’s not a brilliant set of conditions, but it’s a 1st round pick. The going rate for those is about $10 million in salary, even with onerous conditions.[ref]Like the one used in today’s Javale McGee trade.[/ref]

Steve Novak out.

Steve Novak had had two good games in his last week in a Jazz uniform, which made this part of the deal tougher for Jazz fans. But the truth is that Novak has always been a negative asset during his time with the Jazz, as evidenced by the good 2nd round pick Toronto had to give up in order to dump his $3.5 million salary on Utah. Barely playing while Utah gave minutes to a rotating cast of D-League characters over him didn’t do his trade value any favors either.

Dumping Novak in this deal, then, saves the Jazz from having to spend a 2nd round pick in order to dump him in the offseason on another team as they chase after free agents. Agents don’t love negotiating with teams that only have money to spend conditional on a trade, so this might open up free agency negotiations a little bit more than had they not moved Novak today. Back of the envelope math shows that the Jazz could end up having up to $18 million to spend in this year’s free agency, with a Booker waive, maybe allowing them the upper hand in free agency negotiations. We’ll see.

Detroit’s 2017 2nd round pick in.

This one’s actually simple! The Jazz get Detroit’s 2017 2nd round pick. This gives the Jazz 4 second round picks in that draft[ref]New York’s from Novak trade, Golden State’s from the RJ trade, Detroit’s from this trade, and their own.[/ref] and up to 3 first round picks[ref]GSW’s 2017 unprotected from the RJ trade, OKC’s from this trade (maybe), and their own.[/ref]. Maybe we’ll see 7 picks traded for the #1?

Again, Dennis Lindsey explained: “”You pooh-pooh 2nd round picks until you hit on one… Those are great chips to go to the poker table and make swaps with as well.”

Tibor Pleiss in.

Tibor Pleiss is a 7’2” German big man who currently plays for FC Barcelona, backing up fellow Jazz prospect Ante Tomic[ref]By the way, I really don’t think Tomic’s ever coming to the NBA.[/ref], ironically enough. Dennis Lindsey has watched infinitely more film on Pleiss than I have, so I’ll let him give the scouting report: “He’s a large man, and he’s getting bigger, more developed. He still has some more strength and power work to do, especially as it relates to our league. He’s big, he has very good touch, good FT shooter. He scored big with his club last year, where he was a starter, then he moved over to Barcelona where he’s Ante Tomic’s backup. He’s mobile for a guy that size.” In other words, he is large.

But when asked if he could be a defensive player, Lindsey answered, “I’d say he’s more of an offensive player. But certainly when you’re 7’2”, by definition you’re a defensive presence.” While Pleiss may be literally present on the floor, we’ve certainly learned with a number of NBA big men that size does not always equal defensive effectiveness.

Oklahoma City tried to bring Pleiss over to the NBA this season, but the buyout amount on his contract with his former team, Laboral Vitoria, was apparently prohibitive. That being said, FC Barcelona was able to conduct the buyout for a reported $650,000, just over the $600,000 allowed without paying the remaining amount on the cap. Still, when that “penalty” was combined with Pleiss’ contract demands as the Thunder’s approached the luxury tax line, they ultimately decided against it. The two planned to reopen negotiations for his NBA move this upcoming summer.

Now, though, that’s up in the air, and will probably be determined after the Jazz make initial moves this offseason. Favors and Gobert are sure to remain on the team, but will Booker? Will the Jazz draft a big man in this year’s studded class, or will they give money to a free agent big? All of these questions determine whether or not there’s space for Pleiss to join the roster.

Grant Jerrett in.

Grant Jerrett was the 40th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft by the Thunder. Lindsey wrapped him up by saying, “He’s 21, he’s 6’10’, he’s mobile, he’s shooting 38% from 3 in the D-League, and we like shooting bigs and the spacing that provides.” In other words, this is another Malcolm Thomas/Erik Murphy play for the Jazz, and while those guys didn’t work out, they also never had a chance to play under Quin Snyder. Jerrett should make the Jazz’s NBA roster immediately, as without him, they only have 12 players on the roster. More info on Jerrett’s profile entering the draft is available on DraftExpress.

Kendrick Perkins will be waived. He’s in this deal to make the salaries work.

This summer

So, what do the Jazz do this summer, now with some additional flexibility after this deal? They could do nothing, make a pick, and forward cap space onto the summer of 2016, but given the rising salary cap, that seems like a bad idea: literally every team will have salary cap space that summer.

They could also chase one of the bigger free agents. The free agent market has a lot of role players who might fit nicely in Utah’s new system: Paul Millsap, Danny Green, Wesley Matthews, and Khris Middleton are all conceivable targets. Would a good player come to Utah? Dennis Lindsey thinks maybe: “If I’m a veteran, I can start to see the pieces, not only be significant, but starting fitting together.”

But perhaps the most intriguing possibility raised by Lindsey today was this one: “We can be a serious player during the draft to take in a veteran to speed up our timeline.” The Jazz could offer their own likely top 10 pick, and/or other future assets, to entirely absorb a big-money player for a team that wanted a fresh start.[ref]Some possibilities here, completely made up just by looking at long-term salaries around the league: Kemba Walker, Chandler Parsons, Mike Conley, Chris Bosh, Nikola Pekovic, Jrue Holiday, Carmelo Anthony, Nikola Vucevic, Eric Bledsoe, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Gay, DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker, Kyle Lowry, Marcin Gortat.[/ref] By doing this, the Jazz might acquire a better player than going through the traditional draft and free agency route.

All in all, though, it was a momentous deal. While none of the individual pieces is the tremendously valuable type that you’d hope in return for the former 3rd pick, having a multitude of assets gives the Jazz flexibility to make a big move, possibly this summer, to take the leap as a contending team. It may seem like the assets returned today only further push Utah’s contention timeline down the road, but in reality, it may give them freedom to make the moves needed to win as soon as next season. In the end, with Kanter’s return uncertain at best, the Jazz received significant assets with which to play.

When Dennis Lindsey was hired in San Antonio in 2007, he was concerned about Quin Snyder as coach of the NBA D-League’s Austin Toros.

“(Spurs general manager) RC (Buford) asked what I thought relative to Quin and the position, and I think I’m pretty good at sizing up situations relative to coaches and teams. I said, ‘RC, I’m skeptical.'”

He’s not skeptical anymore. Today, Lindsey introduced Snyder as the first head coach outside of the organization to be hired by the Utah Jazz in 35 years. Obviously, Lindsey has been impressed since that initial reaction seven years ago, saying now, “I spoke out of ignorance relative to Quin.”

So what was it that impressed Lindsey so much to reverse his initial opinion? Let’s break down the key factors.

Previous HC experience in minor leagues

Lindsey said that Quin’s minor league experience with San Antonio was a major factor in choosing Quin to be the coach of the Utah Jazz. “I think if you look at D-League and minor league experience from 10,000 feet, there’s an unusual story to tell: Phil Jackson, George Karl, Flip Saunders, and more recently, Dave Joerger. There are some coaching analytics that say if you had very successful minor league coaching experience, it can set you up on a strong platform if you’re able to get to the NBA as a head coach. For many reasons.”

In the post-press conference scrum, Lindsey explained the coaching “database” that the team had set up, as they looked for trends in coaches to try to figure out what led to good coaches later on. The numbers on Quin’s experience in the D-League were one indication that the team had found the right candidate for the job. Another indication: the success of Snyder’s system.

Snyder’s coaching philosophy

Snyder briefly explained his coaching philosophy in the press conference and media availability. In short, he wants to run a motion offense, with lots of reads, spacing, and unselfishness with the ball. The motion offense “is a little bit random”, which means it’s “harder to guard.” He also wants his offense to allow the players to run up and down the floor. In his words, “Playing with pace really just gets easy baskets and lets players attack.” Quin also indicated that while his system and philosophy are set, there may be tweaks based on his final roster: “You do have to adapt within that construct. You may post more, there may be more pick and roll with certain players. I think it varies team-to-team and it can also vary within one team. You know, if you play a stretch 4, you can play a little different than if you don’t play a stretch 4 on the floor.”

Running this system naturally requires a balance of running set plays or running out of flow (i.e., no set play, just operating in general set offensive principles). I asked Snyder about how he’ll acquire that balance: “I think a lot of it has to do with how you begin the possession: if it’s a missed basket you have a chance to run more. Coming out of a timeout, or a dead ball, the emphasis really has to go to execution, because the defense is set.”

On the defensive side of the ball, Snyder insisted “We’d like to have a defensive identity. That’s an area where we’d like to take a stand.”

Snyder emphasized the importance of trusting teammates and working together as a unit, something the Jazz failed to do defensively last season. How will that improve? “I think if you have attention to detail in all of these situations it makes you better. And the last thing would be accountability. Us holding each other accountable, both players and coaches.”

Player development skill

Part of that improvement will have to come through player development. By most measures, the Jazz were one of the 5 youngest teams last season, but their youth all have the physical tools to improve upon their games. Because of this, Lindsey said “The development issue was really central to this decision.” DeMarre Carroll, the former Jazzman now on the Atlanta Hawks, credited Snyder with much of his development this season. He told the Atlanta Journal-Constution last year, “This is the first year a coach really worked with me on my footwork, my shot, spent time with me. That’s a credit to Coach Quin. That shows me that he cares about me as a person, cares about my career.”

Dennis Lindsey and Atlanta head coach Mike Budenholzer agreed with Carroll’s assessment of Snyder’s developmental capacities. “[Budenholzer] and I feel like there’s a best development coach out there, someone who we both have worked with in the past, we’ll leave him unnamed[ref]Theory: Chip Engelland, San Antonio assistant coach.[/ref], but he said I think Quin is hitting this person’s stage and level of expertise towards that realm of basketball.”

Analytical openness

The Jazz are moving towards embracing analytics throughout the organization. Previous coaching staffs have been occasionally hesitant to embrace analytical influence from the team’s front office. While analytics is not currently a strength of Snyder’s (as Snyder put it, “I don’t have the command for it that I would like to have.”)[ref]Surprising for an MBA from Duke![/ref], he seems open to working with the team on developing that part of his skillset: “It’s something that I look forward to having the chance to learn from from the people here in management and our scouting staff. There’s an advantage to be gained. And any way you can gain a competitive advantage, you want to try to do it.”

Snyder explained that he’ll actively seek out analytical answers to specific coaching questions from the front office, and seemed eager to have the lessons of statistics boiled down to something he could adopt. Those around the league rave about Snyder’s intelligence, so there’s little doubt that Snyder will be able to adopt those takeaways into his coaching.

In short, the Jazz feel that Snyder’s combination of coaching system and philosophy, along with his developmental skill, made him the best choice to be the next coach of the team. It’s still 5 long months before we’ll be able to see the impact of Snyder on the Jazz’s on-court performance.

]]>http://andylarsen.com/2014/06/07/quin-snyder-on-his-coaching-philosophy-player-development-analytics-and-more/feed/10The Two Jazz Fans Who Fell In Love On Twitterhttp://andylarsen.com/2013/11/06/the-two-jazz-fans-who-fell-in-love-on-twitter/
http://andylarsen.com/2013/11/06/the-two-jazz-fans-who-fell-in-love-on-twitter/#commentsWed, 06 Nov 2013 17:28:16 +0000http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=8212Ashly Mae and Dustin LaMarr, married last Saturday, attend a Jazz game last season.

Ashly Mae used to scare her daughter while watching Utah Jazz games.

“When I watch a Jazz game alone, I’m a completely different person,” Ashly says. “I’m a lunatic. I’m screaming, I’m yelling, my neighbors hate me, my daughter in her room is like ‘Mom! I can’t do homework on Jazz game nights!'”

The good news: she doesn’t have to watch them alone anymore. Last Saturday, November 2nd, Ashly and Dustin LaMarr (@prodigal_punk on Twitter), a longtime writer for SLCDunk, were married in downtown Salt Lake City. This isn’t a typical love story, though; these two lovers met on Twitter while discussing Jazz basketball.

It all started when the Jazz posted a link to some team blogs on UtahJazz.com in 2011. Ashly (perhaps better known as @SurlyMae), who had “no one in [her] real life who would talk about the Jazz”, found the conversation with other Jazz fans on SLCDunk scintillating.

She started a Twitter account to get more of the conversation. There, she became an integral part of the Jazz Twitter community, participating in discussions with Jazz fans around the world, including Dustin. When a “Tweetup”, a real-life meetup for Jazz Twitter participants, was organized prior to the playoff-clinching game against the Phoenix Suns in April 2012, Ashly was excited to meet the people she had been communicating with online so long in real life.

The meetup took place at Iggy’s in Downtown SLC, and Ashly had an eye out for Dustin.

“Dustin was my favorite writer on SLCDunk”, the 34-year-old Ashly says, “so I was excited to meet him. But when he showed up, he looked like he was 24, and that was ridiculous.” They didn’t say a word to each other at the event, but continued communicating along with other Jazz fans on Twitter about their shared passion: basketball.

The first time they conversed in person was not until months later, in October 2012. Then, Dustin, 33, invited friends for a drink at the Beerhive, a local pub, and put an invitation on Twitter. Ashly saw the tweet, and came along. There, they talked and flirted a bit before Dustin made his next move.

“I had enough liquid courage that I DMed her [Twitter language for sending someone a direct message] and asked ‘Hey, when are you and I going to get drinks?'”, Dustin explained. “So we DMed back and forth a little bit, then exchanged numbers.”

They set their first date for last November 4th, a Sunday brunch. Dustin says, “That was it. We never looked back from there. It just worked out.”

Just a week later, word spilled to the Jazz Twitter community of the relationship by way of technological accident. In an intended DM, Dustin revealed his secret to @AllThatAmar, managing editor of SLCDunk. Unfortunately, instead of posting as a DM, it posted as a normal tweet to the world, and immediately the entire community knew. Ashly was not pleased.

There were some obstacles to overcome. Dustin was sent to Oakland, California, to oversee a opening of a new store for his company in January. He spent 6 months in Oakland, while Ashly waited patiently in Salt Lake City. They spent every other weekend flying back and forth to see each other. As Dustin explains, “That Provo-to-Oakland direct flight [on Allegiant Airlines] was a godsend to us because it saved us so much money.”

Upon Dustin’s return, he knew he wanted to make his next move, but wasn’t sure how: “I thought ‘when I get back, I’ll probably give it a month just to make sure that when we’re around each other a lot, we don’t hate each other’, and then I was going to do it. But I didn’t know where she stood on it yet. I didn’t know if she was worried about it.”

Dustin got his answer in a text. “She sent me this text saying, ‘We should just get married and buy a house together, haha don’t be scared.'” He took it as a sign that Ashly had the same idea. The next week, Dustin and Ashly talked one night, and Dustin told her, “You know that thing you texted me last week? I want to do that.” Further conversation ensued, but it was clear: they were on the same page.

The wedding was a small affair in downtown Salt Lake, only about 20-25 people attended. But the ceremony itself was just as public as their courtship was: the couple actually live streamed the wedding so that family and friends from other locales could watch online. The wedding stream could even be seen on computers on press row during the Jazz’s home game, scheduled for the same time.

With a quick timeframe between engagement and wedding in order to facilitate the purchase of a house together in Salt Lake, life has been hectic but happy for Dustin and Ashly. November brings three new beginnings for the pair: a new marriage, with a new house, and a new Jazz season.

Don’t underestimate the latter’s importance for the couple. As Ashly explains, “If he wasn’t a Jazz fan, well… let’s just say that was one of my requirements.” They have devised a 10-year plan together that includes Jazz season tickets in the first 5 rows, across from the bench.

In a slowly announced trade Friday, the Jazz revealed part of their blueprint by taking on the contracts of Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush from the Golden State Warriors. The move frees up cap space for the Warriors to pursue Andre Iguodala. The Jazz also received Golden State’s 2014 and 2017 first round picks, both unprotected, as well as multiple second round picks. In return, the Jazz gave up Kevin Murphy to the Warriors.

I’m not sure there’s ever been a deal in which it was more clear that money is the driving factor in NBA trades. The Jazz are receiving 3 players (including 2 former stars in Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins) and at least 4 draft picks (including 2 unprotected firsts) in exchange for a second round pick with an unguaranteed contract (Murphy) who scored a total of 15 points last season. In terms of words used and names named, this deal seems really one-sided.

But, no, Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins have devolved into complete shells of their former selves. Both hardly played in Golden State last season, and the skills that made them intriguing are gone. Brandon Rush has had just 1 good season, 2 years ago, but will be recovering from a ACL tear that he suffered in 2012-13’s second game. On the other hand, their underwhelming games are outrageously compensated: Jefferson will make over 11 million dollars for his efforts next season, and Biedrins will ply his 7.7 PER skills for $9 million. Overall, however, the Jazz will have to pay over $20 million in salary for next season for those two players.

That’s not the end of the costs, however. In order to create the cap room for these contracts to make the trade legal by the collective bargaining agreement, the Jazz had to renounce some of their cap holds, the temporary placeholders that prevent teams from cheating salary cap rules. In particular, the Jazz had to renounce all but $6 million of their cap holds, meaning that Utah can no longer use Bird rights on Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mo Williams, or Greg Ostertag. Al Jefferson was a known loss, after signing an expensive deal with Charlotte on Thursday, and Greg Ostertag is no longer relevant, but Millsap and Williams cannot be re-signed for anything more than the roughly $6 million dollars in cap space the Jazz have remaining. That might be in Williams’ salary range, but Millsap will surely go for a higher dollar amount. Millsap has spent 7 seasons with the franchise, and is nearly universally beloved by Jazz fans. Both his numbers (which were impressive, especially looking at some advanced stats) and his character were exemplary, and whichever team picks him up will be lucky to have him.

Finally, the deal also postpones the Jazz’s much-vaunted flexibility for another season. This means that the Jazz are officially out of the race for any big name free agents, as their cap space simply won’t allow signing anyone with a large salary. Even Kyle Korver’s deal of 4 years, $24 million would likely be too much for the Jazz to afford with this move. Furthermore, this is it for these sorts of trades: the Jazz can’t take on much more salary in return for assets until next summer, when these deals — along with Marvin Williams’ $7.5 million contract — come off the books. The Jazz had refused many trades in order to preserve this summer’s flexibility and they used that bullet on today’s trade. They do not get it back until next year.

This is all to say: the costs of this move are rather great for Utah. What they receive in return, then, also has to be great. Jefferson and Biedrins are not that, so the outcome of this deal balances on Brandon Rush and how the picks turn out.

Let’s start with Rush. Rush was drafted out of the league when he was already 22 with the 13th pick by Indiana. The Pacers expected someone to play right away, but were ultimately disappointed with his play, playing nearly 30 MPG and putting up under 10 PER over his three seasons before being traded to Golden State in the Jarrett Jack deal. In Golden State, however, he took far fewer mid-range shots, and focused on taking shots at the rim and making 45% of his threes. Rush was also pretty good defensively, acting as GSW’s primary backcourt defender and holding opponents to a 13.1 PER against, according to 82games. If he plays like 2011-12, he’s exactly the kind of 3&D wing player that you absolutely need to succeed in today’s NBA, and his acquisition is a good one. However, his contract is only for this upcoming year, making it less clear that he will help the next good Jazz team. He also doesn’t have more upside beyond what he displayed 2 years ago, as he turns 28 on Sunday, and he may take away minutes from the younger Burks and Hayward. The best case scenario here may be that Rush spends the first half of the season showing that he’s recovered from the ACL tear and still has lots of value as a excellent role player, at which point he’s traded to a contending team willing to give up even more value, perhaps yet another 2014 first rounder.

The picks are much more difficult to place an exact value on. Utah received the 2014 and 2017 1st round picks of GSW unprotected and two yet-to-be-announced second rounders (my guess: GSW’s 2015 and 2016 2nd round picks). The 2014 1st round pick is really the only one we can analyze, given our limited information. If you assume Golden State would earn about the 21st pick again (a fair assumption on the aggregate: I think it’s likely the Warriors are better this season than last, but also think that it’s likely they’re not so lucky with injuries given their roster), and using this research from basketball-reference, the 21st pick is likely to give about 7.3 Win Shares over the initial, salary protected, portion of their career. Given an estimated value of $1.7 million per win (which is the result of dividing total NBA salary by total NBA wins), the 21st pick is worth about 12.4 million dollars. Given that the 21st pick is paid roughly $5 million over the course of their first 4 years, you end up with a $7 million dollar surplus value. Not bad. Given the talent of the 2014 draft, I think it’s also fair to bump that number by a few notches, completely unscientifically, to about $10 million.

The 2017 pick is nearly impossible to analyze, there’s just too much noise in the system. The Warriors have only Steph Curry under contract for that season. We also have no idea about the current 9th graders likely to be involved in that draft. There may be another lockout or strike, as either side can opt out of the CBA after the 2016-17 season. Pegging it at roughly the same value of the 2014 pick seems fair, but with such huge levels of variance that the guess is ultimately meaningless. Without knowledge of what 2nd rounders the Jazz received, those too are impossible to analyze, even more so than the typical boom-or-likely-bust scenario that 2nd round picks usually represent.

Still, you can make a case for the deal as roughly fair for both sides: the Jazz get picks that probably have a cumulative value in the low 8 figures and an above-neutral asset in Brandon Rush, in return for the responsibility of paying Jefferson and Biedrins $20 million dollars combined in a year in which the opportunity cost is relatively low. Given that neither team fleeced the other in terms of value, the trade had much more to do with enacting Dennis Lindsey’s future plan for the Utah Jazz.

In particular, because the flexibility is gone, this trade largely locks in the 12 players currently under contract for the 2013-14 season. Any other future moves done by the Jazz will be done around the fringes: adding a DeMarre Carroll here, a backup point guard there. The roster is talented (probably too talented to be in the bottom 5 of the lottery next season), but very young, and doesn’t look like it’s in a position for contending for a playoff spot in the Western Conference unless 2 or 3 of Favors, Hayward, Kanter, Burks, or Burke massively surprise. The team is moving to its youth, as most Jazz fans wanted all along, but the trade makes next season likely to be a sub-.500 one.

But the future beyond that is bright. The season should allow the young quintet a chance to develop, and the two picks in 2014’s legendary draft should help add talent to further a young core. The team will have roughly $35 million in salary cap room, which can be used on the extensions of Hayward and Favors, plus perhaps adding a marquee free agent. The next contending Jazz team could come as early as 2014-15. Make no mistake: the rebuild is underway.

In today’s basketball analytics paradigm, all of the talk is on efficiency, and for good reason: efficiency is highly correlated with winning. Per possession statistics like Offensive and Defensive Rating, and Synergy’s PPP rule the roost, and when they don’t, per shot statistics like eFG% or TS% step forward. Again, this makes sense: being efficient on both ends of the floor is obviously a good thing.

But when a player dramatically alters the possessions themselves, sometimes we analysts overlook that influence. Enter DeMarre Carroll. Last season, he shot an average-looking 46% from the field (though that was by far the best percentage of his career), and just 28.6% from 3: about average to below average overall for his position. Most look at these numbers and pigeonhole Carroll right there: wing players who can’t shoot tend not to be productive players.

DeMarre, though, is incredibly productive, by uniquely influencing the possession. Let’s look at how he does this:

GIVING PROHIBITED

DeMarre Carroll led the Jazz last season in turnovers per 36 minutes, allowing just 1.1 in that timeframe. To give you a comparison, Gordon Hayward finished with 2.1 TO/36, Alec Burks with 2.3 TO/36, and catch-and-shooters Randy Foye and Marvin Williams ended up with 1.3 and 1.5 TO/36, respectively. Yes, he even beat out notoriously turnover-stingy Al Jefferson, who ended with 1.5 TO/36.

Carroll’s total leaves him 15th in the NBA overall amongst players with over 1000 minutes, with most of the players above him of the extreme catch-and-shoot variety (such as Steve Novak, Shane Battier, Kyle Korver, etc.). Given that estimates for the value of a turnover range from -.9 points to -1.5 points, Carroll may be giving up a point fewer per game than his counterparts in this category alone. But we’re just getting started.

EYE-POPPING OFFENSIVE REBOUND NUMBERS

I wish there were a way to make a player famous for a certain facet of their game, but alas, that generally happens through the vagaries of public opinion. DeMarre Carroll’s offensive rebounding at his position is absolutely world-class. Let’s begin with his per 36 numbers again: Carroll averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, compared to just 0.9 for Gordon Hayward, 1.2 for Alec Burks, 1.1 for Marvin Williams, and 0.3 for Randy Foye. Pretty impressive, no?

But when you compare him to the league overall, Carroll really shines. DeMarre ranks first in the league (again, minimum 1000 minutes) amongst non-PF and non-Cs in offensive rebounds overall: his 2.8 ORB/36 total beating the nearest challenger, Dante Cunningham, by over 10%. Carroll is the only player amongst all PGs, SGs, and SFs to rank in the top 50. He garners 9.1% of the possible offensive rebounds when he’s in the game, another league-leading performance for his position.

This isn’t just a single season fluke either. He led the league for non-big offensive rebounding in 2011-2012. In his second season, he played only 50 minutes. Even in his rookie season, 2009-2010, he led the league! We have very significant evidence that DeMarre Carroll is very significantly great at offensive rebounding.

The linear weights estimates (link above) for an offensive rebound seem to put the value at about 0.75 points, but I would argue that the value is even greater for Carroll: via Synergy, he averaged 1.31 PPP on his offensive rebounding scoring opportunities last season, good for 11th in the league. That improves significantly on the Jazz’s overall 1.09 points per possession on offensive rebound opportunities. This may just be wish casting, but lets put the value of an Carroll offensive rebound at 0.9 points. Doing the multiplication, he’s getting 1.5 to 2.3 more points per 36 minutes than his wing counterparts based on his offensive rebounding alone.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S “STEAL” MORE

Carroll also leads the Jazz with 1.9 steals per 36 minutes. This is again higher than his playing time competition: Hayward has 1.0 STL/36, Burks 1.1 STL/36, Foye 1.1 STL/36, and Marvin Williams finished with 0.8 STL/36.

Here, too, DeMarre Carroll compares extremely well with the rest of the league. Carroll ranks second in the league in steals per 36 minutes for a SF, and third in the league for non-guards, only Corey Brewer and Andray Blatche (strangely) finished higher. Again, the Jazz have someone who is world-class at his position at an aspect of the game.

Much like with turnovers, linear weights estimates the value of a steal at about 0.9-1.5 points. Once again, Carroll gains a point on his competition.

So how does it all add up? In these three respects of the game, Carroll is helping the Jazz by somewhere between 2.7 and 4.8 points per 36 minutes. That is a massive improvement: that jump would put the Jazz somewhere between 5th and 10th in the league in scoring margin, up from 15th. In short, the Jazz would have almost certainly made the playoffs, and may have even had home court advantage in the first round.

The brilliant part about Carroll’s season last year, however, was that he was still an effective player even ignoring his war-on-possessions specialties. Carroll’s FG% (46%) was a full 5 percentage points higher than any other season in his career, and his 0.98 PPP on personal offensive possessions was 95th in the league out of 400-500 players. The Jazz offense improved when he was on the floor, even in shooting percentage (albeit by less than 1 percent).

His defense, which I heavily attacked last year, became average this season: metrics on his performance range from somewhat below average (his 0.93 PPP allowed in Synergy) to very good (a 4 point DRTG jump when he was on the floor, via NBA.com, and his 12.6 PER allowed on 82games.com). Carroll is no longer limited to a specialist’s role.

The end result: a player who has largely eliminated his weaknesses, and improved his league-leading strengths. DeMarre Carroll’s unconventionality shouldn’t stop us from appreciating just how effective he was when on the floor last season, and a free agency offer representative of his talents should be extended.