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In the week following the EU referendum, we published a quick overview of the institutions with the highest numbers and proportions of EU students, on the assumption that this segment of the higher education market was now under threat.

However, the past few weeks has shown that it is not only EU students but the entire international student market that is now in jeopardy depending on the extent to which the new government follows through on its tough rhetoric.

The saga has played out rather oddly. First, Amber Rudd announced a new crackdown on international students taking ‘low quality’ courses, prompting near-panic in universities. It then emerged that Rudd herself had tried to persuade the Prime Minister to remove students from net migration statistics, which would have removed international students from being the very political football she had kicked during her party conference speech.

The extent of the cabinet split on the matter became even clearer when Philip Hammond said in not so many words that he was supportive of Rudd’s efforts to remove students from net migration, and clearly responded positively to UUK polling that appeared to back his position up. The Chancellor was promptly slapped down by a Downing Street spokesperson the following day, but not until after an afternoon of confusion when another spokesperson had suggested the matter was “under review”.

Review or no review, the whole debate has become caught up in the wider problems the government is now facing in taking unprecedentedly tough action on immigration but also trying to avoid harming a strong British export industry. It is quite the political mess, and despite having friends in high places such as Hammond, and perhaps even Boris Johnson, universities should remain nervous about their long-term prospects for international recruitment.

The saga has evidently damaged the UK higher education brand in overseas markets, particularly in India, where perceptions of the UK as an attractive place to study have been in decline for years. A significant drop in international student recruitment would be a strain across the sector, but the pain would be felt in some institutions more than others.

To that end, I have compiled data from HESA for the 2014-15 academic year to look at which institutions might be most vulnerable to Theresa May’s challenge to create a business model without international student recruitment. I have also compared the numbers of international students with the results of the EU referendum, to try and establish whether areas that voted to Leave have high numbers of student immigrants that may be causing anxiety in those communities.

Where in the UK are international students?

International students are spread across the UK. Northern Ireland has much lower numbers as a proportion than England, Scotland and Wales. International students are roughly evenly split between undergraduates and postgraduates, meaning that postgraduate courses are far more reliant on international students as a proportion of their total.

Total UG international

% UG international

Total PG international

% PG international

UK

153745

9%

158265

29%

England

130310

9%

130885

30%

Northern Ireland

1695

4%

1100

10%

Scotland

12860

7%

16345

29%

Wales

8875

8%

9930

35%

Which universities are most reliant on international undergraduates?

The universities with the highest numbers of international undergraduates are:

Institution

Total UG international

% UG International

The University of Manchester

5135

19%

University College London

4625

27%

University of the Arts, London

4530

31%

The University of Liverpool

4510

25%

Coventry University

3900

18%

The University of Edinburgh

3515

17%

University of Nottingham

3260

14%

The University of Sheffield

3245

17%

Cardiff University

2805

13%

University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne

2755

16%

Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine

2615

29%

The University of Warwick

2580

17%

The University of St Andrews

2505

32%

The University of Exeter

2505

15%

The University of Westminster

2495

15%

King's College London

2320

13%

And the universities with the highest proportions of international undergraduates are:

Institution

Total UG international

% UG International

The University of Buckingham

475

41%

London School of Economics and Political Science

1690

38%

The University of St Andrews

2505

32%

University of the Arts, London

4530

31%

Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine

2615

29%

University College London

4625

27%

The School of Oriental and African Studies

785

26%

The University of Liverpool

4510

25%

Royal Academy of Music

85

24%

Royal College of Music

95

22%

The City University

2075

21%

The University of Lancaster

1805

20%

The Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts

145

20%

The University of Manchester

5135

19%

The University of Sussex

1975

19%

Which universities are most reliant on international postgraduates?

The universities with the highest numbers of international postgraduates are:

Institution

Total PG international

% PG International

University College London

4950

26%

The University of Birmingham

4925

35%

The University of Manchester

4865

41%

The University of Sheffield

3905

48%

The University of Oxford

3560

38%

London School of Economics and Political Science

3460

56%

Coventry University

3445

57%

The University of Leicester

3425

49%

The University of Southampton

3325

43%

The University of Edinburgh

3230

37%

Cardiff Metropolitan University

3045

64%

The University of Leeds

3040

38%

The City University

2995

35%

The University of Warwick

2945

33%

Cardiff University

2865

32%

University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne

2845

45%

And the universities with the highest proportions of international postgraduates are:

Institution

Total PG international

% PG International

Cardiff Metropolitan University

3045

64%

Coventry University

3445

57%

London School of Economics and Political Science

3460

56%

The University of Sunderland

1525

54%

University College Birmingham

250

53%

Brunel University London

2050

51%

London Business School

920

51%

The University of Leicester

3425

49%

The University of Sheffield

3905

48%

University of Bedfordshire

1855

46%

University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne

2845

45%

University of the Arts, London

1470

45%

Queen Mary University of London

2000

44%

The University of Southampton

3325

43%

University of Durham

1985

42%

Loughborough University

1440

42%

International students and the Brexit vote

The Prime Minister’s fixation with cutting international student numbers as part of a wider cut-down on immigration has been primarily justified by the Brexit vote, which researchers have shown to be overwhelming to do with dissatisfaction with immigration. However, as you may have already observed from the tables above, large numbers of international students are primarily in areas that voted to Remain in the referendum: London, Scotland, Manchester, and Cardiff in particular.

Institution

Total international students

Remain or Leave

% Leave

The University of Manchester

10000

Strong Remain

39.64% (Manchester)

University College London

9575

Strong Remain

25.06% (Camden)

Coventry University

7345

Strong Leave

55.6% (Coventry)

The University of Sheffield

7150

Narrow Leave

50.99% (Sheffield)

The University of Birmingham

6845

Narrow Leave

50.42% (Birmingham)

The University of Edinburgh

6745

Strong Remain

25.56% (City of Edinburgh)

The University of Liverpool

6230

Strong Remain

41.81% (Liverpool)

University of the Arts, London

6000

Strong Remain

25.06% (Camden)

University of Nottingham

5710

Narrow Leave

50.84% (Nottingham)

Cardiff University

5670

Strong Remain

39.98% (Cardiff)

University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne

5600

Narrow Remain

49.4% (Newcastle upon Tyne)

The University of Warwick

5525

Strong Remain

41.22% (Warwick)

Areas with high numbers of international students that voted to Leave in June only did so very narrowly, such as Sheffield, Birmingham, Southampton, Canterbury, Colchester, Swansea, and Nottingham. Coventry and Warwick Universities, though based in Coventry, which voted to Leave, have many students living outside the city in Warwick District Council, which voted to Remain.

A very top-level analysis of the referendum result shows a small number of areas that voted strongly to Leave (55% plus) that have a high number of international students, though as can be seen, many of these institutions are well down the list compared to the wider sector. The vast majority of international students appear to reside in areas that voted to Remain in the EU, further underlining how futile a clampdown would likely be in addressing voters’ broader concerns about immigration.

Institution

International students (UG and PG)

% Leave vote of local authority

Coventry University

7345

55.6% (Coventry)

University of Durham

3680

57.55% (County Durham)

The University of Sunderland

3535

61.34% (Sunderland)

The University of Portsmouth

2885

58.08% (Portsmouth)

University of Bedfordshire

2665

56.55% (Luton)

The University of Hull

2305

67.62% (Kingston upon Hull)

This analysis is only skin deep. Research has shown that a strong Leave vote did not correlate so much with the size of the immigrant population as with the proportionate change in the immigrant population over the last decade. It nonetheless seems unlikely that in many communities for whom immigration is a big concern that international students are a visible presence. Rather, international students tend to reside in more liberal, cosmopolitan, and relatively wealthy big cities that voted to Remain or only very narrowly to Leave.

We are competing in a global market but have a government which seems intent on batting for the opposition. While the American, Canadian, Australian and now Irish governments are doing all they can to make International students welcome, the UK government gives off the opposite vibe. And surprise, surprise, it’s already impacting our country’s competitive performance.

Unwilling to wait for the HESA data to come out in January 2017, I submitted an FOI request to the Home Office asking for Tier 4 international student visa applications for 2015 and four years previous. The bad news is that applications dropped by almost 5% in 2015 to 208,385 after two years of stability. India is dropping like a stone with another 13% decline in 2015 – 9,835 compared to over 31,000 in 2011. China continues to flourish with 80,000 applications in 2015 making up over 38% of the UK total. Where is the evidence that International students outstay their welcome? 99.9% of Chinese students return home after completing their degree. We need Amber to turn Green.

Good attempt at analysis but needs more fine tuning on the geographical basis of the Brexit comparison eg Warwick University is not in Warwick and nor do many of its students live there; Coventry University has a large international student body at its London Campus (as do a few others); University of Bedfordshire is not just in Luton but in Bedford as well, etc.

The apparent correlation of the remain vote with high numbers of international students is probably more to do with the location of large universities tending to be linked to a higher proportion of the local population having higher educational attainment, and the very strong correlation of leave voters with lower educational attainment. These are the people HE has failed to reach and it is not going to be changed by just lobbying government, but by universities as a whole working more strongly in these areas to show that they have something to offer the populations.

Policy makers must keep in mind the knowledge and expertise international students sharing to the countries growth. further International students are paying actually the fees of local students so in this way the local residents pay less to get better and better education.