I don't know, but like someone else already said, it's the same arguments, by the same people, OVER and OVER and OVER. BC's gone, AB's gone, DD now the incessant target. I don't think it's happening any time soon, and hope not, but who's next if DD is traded? It's a good thing players are coached not to pay attention to these places, or nobody would want to play in Toronto.

I don't know, but like someone else already said, it's the same arguments, by the same people, OVER and OVER and OVER. BC's gone, AB's gone, DD now the incessant target. I don't think it's happening any time soon, and hope not, but who's next if DD is traded? It's a good thing players are coached not to pay attention to these places, or nobody would want to play in Toronto.

Notice I've said nothing? lol I've said my peace/piece on DD.

I don't think anyone becomes the target. All the one-dimensional inefficient volume shooters are gone.

I don't know, but like someone else already said, it's the same arguments, by the same people, OVER and OVER and OVER. BC's gone, AB's gone, DD now the incessant target. I don't think it's happening any time soon, and hope not, but who's next if DD is traded? It's a good thing players are coached not to pay attention to these places, or nobody would want to play in Toronto.

It's almost like you think anybody that thinks overly optimistic projections are poor assumptions to base future decisions on are perpetually unhappy and irrational, as if the two have any logical connection at all. I say "almost" because I want to give you more credit than that.

It's almost like you think anybody that thinks overly optimistic projections are poor assumptions to base future decisions on are perpetually unhappy and irrational, as if the two have any logical connection at all. I say "almost" because I want to give you more credit than that.

Thanks for the credit,,,, I guess,,,,, but if you read again, my point was not about criticizing the attitude of people who don't buy into a more optimistic projection (we all have an opinion), but about "incessantly" making the same points over and over and over,,,, in response to the post that questioned why these threads keep popping up, over and over again. Everyone has an opinion, and all the right in the world to express it. I just don't understand the desire to make the point 150 times.

Thanks for the credit,,,, I guess,,,,, but if you read again, my point was not about criticizing the attitude of people who don't buy into a more optimistic projection (we all have an opinion), but about "incessantly" making the same points over and over and over,,,, in response to the post that questioned why these threads keep popping up, over and over again. Everyone has an opinion, and all the right in the world to express it. I just don't understand the desire to make the point 150 times.

I guess I inferred incorrectly but I got the sense you were saying people were targetting DeRozan for criticism just so they have something to nitpick. If that's not what you were saying, my bad.

... On a completely unrelated note that I just remembered, I wish Multipaul would get unbanned, rofl. Although he might not want to come back with Bargnani traded.

Good point. I was going to put this in the everything derozan thread but it was a team angle that made me think of this. With everything Masai has been saying lately, I've been trying to think of what might make us decide what direction to go. It occurred to me that something as simple as Demar having a decent three point shot could make this roster make sense and be tweakable, not breakable. Oversimplication yes, but something worth mentioning. It's not so much the often visited "will/can Demar improve his 3pt shot". It's more "If he improves his shot, does that make the roster more whole"

Just to make it clear for everyone - we do not want Demar taking more 3s. Demar as always must be aggressive and take it to the rim or look for an assist every time. However if he is left open in a rotation he has to nail those open look 3s. we have Novak now to come off the bench and shootem.

Just to make it clear for everyone - we do not want Demar taking more 3s. Demar as always must be aggressive and take it to the rim or look for an assist every time. However if he is left open in a rotation he has to nail those open look 3s. we have Novak now to come off the bench and shootem.

Actually... I wouldn't mind if he could exchange 1 or 2 of his mid-range attempts for corner 3s. I'd like to see him take 4 threes a game while shooting at a 35% clip.

Say he does that and continues to take about 12 attempts from 2pt range at about 47% (his 2P% --- not FG% from last year) and continues to convert free throws at the same rate.

Total = 20.3pts on 44-35-82 shooting. This is actually LOW-BALLING what he would be able to do with an improved three pointer, because I didn't adjust his 2PT% to account for a higher-ratio of attempts at the rim to mid-range shots.

By my count, this is at least the 2nd offseason (possibly 3rd) where DeRozan has publically stated that his offseason priority was improving his 3pt shot. As a 4-year veteran who has been a starter since day-1, played heavy minutes for the past 3 seasons and been the #1b scoring option for the past 2 seasons (#1 option whenever Bargnani was injured, prior to acquiring Gay), I seriously doubt we'll ever see DeRozan make any significant, sustainable improvements in any area of his game.

The bigger problem for me, as some others have pointed out, is that even if he does improve his 3pt shot, he'll still have many weaknesses in his game. If you dig deeper into the basic stats (ie: 18.1 PPG, but needed 15.0 FGA per game - volume scorer) or delve into the world of advanced stats (many others have already done this in detail, in multiple threads), it becomes pretty apparent that DeRozan is an inefficient volume scorer with a preference for the worst shot in basketball (long 2pt jumper). Any eye-test shows that he's a terrible defender (usually tasked with guarding the weaker opposing wing), which is yet another glaring weakness in a league becoming wing/perimeter dominant.

When you further factor in his $9.5M salary and the fact that Gay makes everything he brings to the table redundant, it's hard to obejectively find any benefit in DeRozan that isn't rooted in hope and faith - sounds a lot like what fans of Bargnani used to argue. DeRozan is a great guy, a great teammate, a hardworker, and he loves Toronto... unfortunately, his game is best suited to be a 6th man scorer making MLE money, rather than a franchise cornerstone making $9.5M.

Show me an article from prior off seasons that says he is working mainly on his 3-point shot.

From what I recall, last off season he was working on his post game.

The off season before that it was simply shooting, improving that mid-range jumper.

People are saying, if Rudy is our #1 option and Demar plays the same game, why do we need Demar? Well, guys... Rudy is not Kevin Durant. We can't expect that guy to score all of our points. It wouldn't be too hard for the other team to double on Rudy and force everyone else to score.

If you recall at the end of the season, teams couldn't decide who to double team and it worked out. Rudy likes the right side, DD likes the left side. One guy get's double teamed, the other guy is wide open.

I don't know, but like someone else already said, it's the same arguments, by the same people, OVER and OVER and OVER. BC's gone, AB's gone, DD now the incessant target. I don't think it's happening any time soon, and hope not, but who's next if DD is traded? It's a good thing players are coached not to pay attention to these places, or nobody would want to play in Toronto.

Mr.Z wrote:

Show me an article from prior off seasons that says he is working mainly on his 3-point shot.

From what I recall, last off season he was working on his post game.

The off season before that it was simply shooting, improving that mid-range jumper.

So I spent about an hour mining through the ole' everything derozan thread and thought I'd share some of the posts that revolve around his 3 point shooting.

2010- Febuary 2012 (where I finally gave up)

2010

Arsenalist wrote:

His three-point shooting (33%) has been a bit of a disappointment but other than that, he's been what I expected. I also thought he would get more touches but I guess when you have so many offensive players, the ball's hard to come by unless they really have to pass it to you.

Apollo wrote:

EDIT: didn't originally pick up what apollo quoted from the article, but here it is... according the the URL it seems like the article was posted JULY 17th 2010

Raptors swingman DeMar DeRozan had a pretty good rookie year, averaging 8.6 points and 2.9 rebounds while shooting 49.8% from the floor in 77 games.

With Toronto headed for a rebuilding period without Chris Bosh -- despite what general manager Bryan Colangelo says -- DeRozan figures to be one of the team’s top options this coming season.

If there was one glaring hole in DeRozan’s game last season, it was his three-point shooting. He attempted just 16 treys all season because of his limited range, hitting only four of them.

This summer, he’s focused on turning that negative into a positive

“Early in the morning I lift and then I go to the gym and make 300 threes,” DeRozan told RealGM in Las Vegas. “I also work on my mid-range jumper.”

He added that he’s been scrimmaging with guys like Brandon Jennings as well.

A number of DeRozan’s fellow 2009 lottery picks opted against playing in Las Vegas -- Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings -- but he said playing on Toronto’s summer league team was a no-brainer.

“I want to improve and it’s better than sitting at home,” said the California native, while adding that his presence was a mutual decision. “I get to be in the gym and get out there and play against other guys.”

While it’s true that he has often gone again inferior players in Las Vegas, DeRozan has dominated. Entering Saturday’s action, he was averaging 21.0 points and 4.5 rebounds on 58% shooting from the field.

Even more impressive?

His range looks much improved as he’s hitting 40% of his three-pointers.

No doubt he's doing good in the summer league. But will his shooting be that high in the regular season? If he can average 50% shooting and above 35% for threes, he could average above 15-16 points as there are more points to go around with Bosh's departure.

Buddahfan wrote:

In the LVSL he made two 3PFGs in four games

compared to making four in 77 games during the 09-10 season.

Headed in the right direction.

I would be surprised if he made over 50 of them in 10-11 but one never knows. Of course 50 compared to 4 would be a significant improvement.

The main thing is if he can make enough of them with a decent accuracy level it will help to open the floor for the Raptors offense when he is on the court.

Raptorsss wrote:

DD can't be in the Carter situation until he can hit 3-point at will and develop a consistent jump shot. The good news is he's modelling his work ethic after Kobe and that will bode well. Demar is at Kobe's level at the same age.

2011

Matt52 wrote:

Anyone else worried about DeRozan for the future?

I'm not seeing a lot of growth or development nor are his stats very good for a starting 2 guard. I know he is 21 but........

If he doesn't develop a consistent jump shot then he will end up like Nick Young in 2 years.

Tim W. wrote:

If he doesn't develop a consistent jump shot, it would be extremely odd considering how much he apparently works on his game. I would be shocked, in fact, if he's not a half decent jump shooter by his third season. Its really not that hard a skill to learn.

Buddahfan wrote:

English should be able help Davis with his shooting. I see Davis as a double double guy if he stays healthy.

DeRozan - It depends on whether he gets serious about practicing three point shots or not.

If he does to the point where he shoots it over 40% and significantly improves his defense then I can see him as an all-star, if not on both accounts then he winds up as journeyman back up SG

I would give him two more seasons before narrowing down the range.

Matt52 wrote:

Paul if you review the posts you discussed Bargnani in #1 and #5. The first few responses were all DD. You can't open a can of worms and then complain because they are crawling over the table. (BTW, is that an expression? If not, I would like to claim it).

As for my thoughts, you may not like them. I started a thread calling him out in November and have since lived to (thankfully) regret it.

There is no doubt he was drafted a project. I'm pretty sure every pre-draft write up on him had 'raw' and 'athleticism' all over it.

If you look at his development physically, he has been extremely impressive. His skinny little frame is starting to fill out and there is much more room for development.

If you look at his development offensively, last year he was a stand up 17-18ft jump shooter with an occassional lob dunk. This year he is showing great ability to play without the ball running off screens to get a look. His dribbling ability was awful last year so it is not hard to improve on it, but give him credit, he has - granted there is still much improvement needed. His jump shot has become very consistent and he has developed a post game - there have been a couple of moves that left my jaw hanging. He definitely needs to improve on his finishing but that comes back to his physical development, in my opinion, and he has in fact improved in this regard from last year. He has shown flashes of creating for others and I'm sure as he gains experience, he will get better - there is no reason shown to think otherwise. People knock him for the 3 point shot but that is something he can develop down the road. As long as his toe is on the 3 point line, he has shown the ability to consistently knock down the long range 2. His FT% is great at 80% and since Jan. 1 he is averaging around 85%. Considering his FGA totals have doubled and he is a much more focal part of the offense, shooting a little over 47% on the season is very impressive.

From a rebounding perspective, I would like to see more and think he can and should be able to get roughly 5 per game.

From a defensive standpoint, he has shown improvement. He is doing better getting around screens and not losing his man. He has shown an edge and a willingness to stand his ground. He is averaging a steal a game which is respectable. His defense still does need to get much better. The reason for optimism on this is his physical tools and his shown desire to work hard and get better.

Considering his touches he has a reasonable 1.7 TO per game. He has shown these tend to come in bunches for him but given the amount of time he has had the ball this year - and he is still developing his handle - that is very respectable.

In summary, what do I think of his progress? Excellent. I could not have asked for anything more out of him this season. I hope he continues to play as well over the last 9 games and shows true determination and integrity.

What do I think of the hype? I'm not sure he's been hyped. The comparison to Jordan in a thread recently is a bit much but, besides that, considering the strides he has made, he deserves every bit of compliments he has received. Like it or not, agree or not, he was a project coming out of college. If he can improve his defense and ball handling this summer like he has improved his mid range and overall offensive game this season, he will be very widely respected around the league - and rightfully so.

Do I consider him a franchise player? Absolutely not. I do not think he will ever develop in to one either. If I had to choose between trading Bargnani after what I've seen in 5 years and DD after what I've seen in 2 years, I would pick DD to stay.

Ambidextrious wrote:

These stats point to the fact that he is at the threshold of being a Premier 2 guard in this league. He is a classy guy and he plays the game to his strengths, which I find to be key at this stage in his development. He plays within the team offence. He knows when to score and when to make plays. I can see the COM10KID putting up big numbers in a Raptors Jersey. I mean BIG numbers. All time Raptors Leader in points. I see him passing CB for first all time in maybe his 5th season. seriously, why not? Not taking anything away from CB, but he is a different caliber player in terms of scoring major points. If he can work on his three point shot next season and become a legit +35% three point shooter. Then he can become a top notch player in the NBA, right now he is at the threshold.

NoPropsneeded wrote:

never... like matt said demar has all the tools nessesary to be a good defender. and this was only his second year, he will improve everything with time. D Case said he'd work with DeMar to improve his defense and overall game(3pt shot too). So don't underestimate him yet

No Props didn't post the original audio or text where Casey say's he going to help him with his 3pt shooting, but if you believe him (which I am likely too) then you stand corrected again.

DeRozan said that, five or six days a week in the off-season, he’d follow up his weight and skill work with a night session where he’d make 250 midrange jumpers and 250 3s.

they allude to him specifically working on his 3pt shot during the off season, ie he put in an extra session 5-6 days a week devoted to 3 pt and mid-range shooting equally. So we've got at least to articles in two different off seasons, both focused on how improving derozan's 3 pointer is a priority and it is/was something he is/was working on. Obviously it wasn't the ONLY thing he was working on. But he's been quoted by different media as saying it's a priority, and he's been working on it. Both articles quote the volume of shots he was taking daily, which is also a good indicator of the seriousness with which he took the effort.

albertan_10 wrote:

I realize this is going to spark up a lot of controversy but that's what makes these places kind of fun.

So i know there are a lot of people out there who do not like Weems because he had a bad season last year and lost focus, but if you see any of his games from Lithuania, he seems very calm and mature in his approach. He's having a much better year than DeRozan has had so far and seems to have a better handle and shot. He basically plays the same position as deRozan and is just a little shorter.

thoughts, rants, complaints?

Matt52 wrote:

I think it's officially safe to say that the Raptors have a DeMar DeRozan problem. The third-year swingman was a linchpin for Toronto's future as recently as this training camp, especially after coming off a tremendous second-half to last season. After being something of a non-entity in his rookie year and November and December of 2010, DeRozan turned it around on New Year's Eve and wound up averaging 19.9 ppg on .465 shooting after the All-Star break. He was attempting over five free throws per game (not enough, but an improvement), he was pulling down 4.1 rpg and the Raptors didn't look foolish talking about him as a cornerstone piece for the future. In fact, for many DeRozan had eclipsed Andrea Bargnani as the team's best player and had become the one absolutely untradeable asset in Toronto's arsenal. The assumption was that he'd show up this year ready to improve upon his output of last season and follow in the footsteps of scoring wings like Rudy Gay or Rip Hamilton.

That didn't happen.

Instead DeRozan has regressed in just about every area. He's scoring just 14.1 ppg on a career-low .379 percentage. He's getting to the line only 4.3 times per game, he's turning the ball over a career-worst 2.2 times per game (particularly galling considering his paltry 1.4 apg) and according to 82games.com the Raptors are significantly better both offensively and defensively when he's off of the court. After 23 games the Raptors can no longer call this a slow start to the season. The season is now over one-third finished for the Raptors and DeRozan looks no more ready to consistently contribute than he did a month ago when these troubles started.
The worry lies deeper than just regression, though. As it stands right now, DeRozan doesn't look like anything close to a legit NBA starter, let alone a cornerstone for the future. He is 60th out of 75 shooting guards in PER at just 9.56, which puts him below guys like Randy Foye, Dahntay Jones and Willie Green. His true shooting percentage ranks him even worse, at 62 out of 75 at just .459, and yet because of his lofty position in the Raptors future he's got an outrageous 22.2 usage rate, 16th among all shooting guards, which at this point is only forcing him into more mistakes because he's so often involved. He's basically a turnover waiting to happen on the break (either because he charges into a defender or because he gets stripped, both are a result of his indefensibly bad ball handling) and Toronto's offence is starting to go away from him, as set plays more often see the ball going to a big man on a pick-and-roll or to James Johnson (yes, that James Johnson) to create in isolation. Consider that for a second: Johnson, a power forward in a small forward's body, is a more capable one-on-one offensive player than DeRozan right now (that doesn't mean he scores more or is more efficient, just that he's better at creating for himself than Toronto's starting scoring guard). With that you start to get a real sense of the Raptors' trouble.

Is there a "but" in all of this? Of course there is, it's the same one people have been trotting out all season when talking about DeRozan's struggles: he's just 23 years old*. He started so far behind the eight ball in terms of his skill development when he hit the NBA that he's simply going to take more time to learn some of the nuances of the game. In time he may well capitalize on all of his potential, but that doesn't really help the Raptors much right now as they plan for the future.

*It should be noted DeMar is 22. DOB August 7th, 1989.

Basically, no one can say for sure what the Raptors should do about their DeRozan situation. Surely it's way too early to even consider severing ties with him, especially not after what he showed last year, but where does he now fit into the big picture? As the trade deadline approaches and the Raptors gear up to make some moves (and they are definitely gearing up to make some moves) how do they factor DeRozan into those plans? Should they be looking for an upgrade at the shooting guard slot? Should they be looking for a veteran mentor for him? Should they be looking for someone who can score in the backcourt to take the pressure off of him? The path is totally unclear.

For instance, say the Raptors picked up a scoring forward that could start alongside DeRozan, taking over the role of primary scorer on the wing to compliment Bargnani in the middle, where would that leave DeMar? If he's not scoring, then he doesn't really have any value to the club. Suppose they get a veteran mentor but he so vastly outplays him that DeRozan - in the name of Dwane Casey's accountability mandate - is relegated to the bench with three superior scorers (Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza and Jerryd Bayless). In all likelihood DeRozan will be only indirectly affected by the trade deadline since the Raptors have some time to be patient with him, but if his struggles continue the club will have to wrangle with this predicament head on and there is no telling how that will go once they've turned that corner.
For now, Casey is imploring DeRozan to use his athleticism to get to the line. He's publicly put that out there, that he needs to see him attack and get into the bodies of his defenders and force the refs to blow the whistle. More often than not these days when DeRozan actually manages to get close to the basket without getting stripped he shies away from contact and not only misses the shot but doesn't get the call.
Of course, what we still don't know is if DeRozan is slumping at all. Again, 23 games is a long stretch and this goes way beyond not hitting open shots. By the end of this season the Raptors are going to need to decide for themselves how their future relates to DeMar's future because young or not, he's a free agent after next season. As patient as they may want to be there is a time limit on how patient they can be if these troubles are prolonged.

DeRozan simply needs to get better for the Raptors to make any kind of serious investment in him (whether it be by extending him or augmenting the roster around him to help him out). This downturn in his game has lasted long enough that it has become a real headache for the organization, and they are praying that DeRozan turns it around so they are forced to make decisions that they don't want to have to make before they make a bid for respectability next season.

I tried to take just a few things from the article but I have to give Tim credit, this is a great piece on his part. It is very well thought-out and presented.

His message is absolutely correct in my opinion: the Raptors (and their fans) should be starting to worry. I said he'd be out of funk by Valentines Day - that only leaves me 12 days to say 'na-na-na-na-na-naaaah' to the RR faithful who doubted him. It is starting to look like I might be on the receiving end of that childishness.

joey_hesketh wrote:

It's all in his head. With Demar, confidence is EVERYTHING.
When hes shoots with confidence, it generally goes in.
When he plays with confidence, it generally goes well.

This last little while, you can SEE that he has NO confidence in his game. Very discouraging.
He'll be fine though.

Although, look at OJ Mayo. Some thought he was in a funk last year, and it lasted the whole season.

akashsingh wrote:

derozan is regressing, but I don't think its an issue.

hopefully he realizes who stuck by his side if he ever becomes good.......

NoPropsneeded wrote:

ya we were both wrong. This is starting to become a problem, we need someone to light a fire under him or something. Last year we was so confident with his jumper, nailing turnaround jumpers like kobe and hitting almost every mid range jumper he took. this year he's been terrible, every time he pulls up i always feel like he's going to miss, he doesn't have the the same lift and confidence on his jumpshot. It might be a good idea to bring in vet to mentor him but i doubt BC will go through the trouble to do so. We just have to hope and pray that he figures out a way to get out of this hole he dug himself. I don't like the idea of trading him because we won't get anything better or of equal value.

ceez wrote:

really good article, expresses all my frustrations with him. it's sad that i was actually surprised his scoring average was that high, thought it was around 10ish or so.

whats demar's trade value even at this point?

it's really sad because hes one of the first players to really take to toronto and want to be a part of putting it on the basketball map without coming off "me-first". you just want to shake the guy and scream at him.

SandmanFan wrote:

I don't think Demar's problems have anything to do with lack of effort or desire, in fact more likely the opposite. He knows what he was expected to do this year (based on his breakout last year) and he is busting his butt to be that star Toronto needs. Benching him, looking for a replacement, etc is more likely to break him down even more and totally destroy any shred of confidence he has left. He needs some coaching/counselling/mentoring. I think it's more of a head problem than a talent problem. When he was shooting with confidence to start the year his 3pt #s were what again? No really, I actually don't remember and I'm too lazy to look it up... but something ridiculous.

joey_hesketh wrote:

This is RIDICULOUS. Look what you started LBF.

He was playing great at the beginning of the season and Sonny wasn't around then.
One should not use the term 'Depressed' lightly. Demar has shown no indication of being "depressed". I think the notion of it is absurd. He's down on himself because he's not performing the way he knows he can. That's all

In short, to answer you question P00ka, I see there are two reasons why keep asking the same questions about Derozan's shot.

1) Because as a fan base we ALWAYS have to have a player on the roster we are actively trying to drive out of town.

or

2) Because despite it being pointed out as early as JULY 17th, 2010 (That will be 3 full years ago this Wednesday!!!)that his lack of three point shooting is a problem, something that was recognized by the team and himself Derozan STILL hasn't demonstrated an ability to hit that shot, even though it is something HE HAS ADMITTEDLY worked on for at least TWO CONSECUTIVE offseasons.

I'm not saying he CAN'T or WON'T develop that shot, but I would say, at this point one would realistically have to admit that it is less likely than more likely to happen. But there's always hope.

You can put in category 3 by the way. Which I would define as "people who believe that past behaviour, although not 100% accurate, is the best predictor of future behaviour". In regards to the NBA the MORE minutes a players logs in game time, the better past behaviour is at predicting future behaviour. This seems to ESPECIALLY hold true once said player has logged more than 10,000 minutes in the nba.

FYI, Derozan has logged more than 9500 minutes, so I would argue that this is almost certainly the last offseason he has left to show us he is capable of new or entirely upgraded skills.

Again, not saying he won't or can't. But that the window is very small, and after the All-star break he is what he is.

HOPEFULLY his hard work pays off and he is able show us some improvement from beyond the arc.

TO summarize? Why are we still talking about demar's lack of 3 point shot? Because it's still a problem that is currently being addressed. And as I mention in EDIT 2, I bet there are a lot of newerish posters here who might find it surprising that he's been making "making 3 pointers" a priority for 3 years. (I didn't think it went back THAT FAR).

EDIT: I really wish that when you quoted someone it gave you the date in which it was posted, I wanted to put the exact date of each quote I used but that was too much work. Mods, is this something that is possible? Also you can click the links to take you to the original quotes. I also should point out that I skimmed through the first 50 pages (often going every other page) so it's entirely possible that I missed a bunch of 3 pt related posts, or that there are entirely other threads about this topic that never got merged.

EDIT 2: I know it's unrealistic, but I kind of wish, there was some way to block people from starting new threads until they had read a certain % of old posts... but maybe I'm just becoming an old curmudgeon.

EDIT 3: I was active during that time period, but I didn't come across anything I posted on the topic as opposed to skipped over it because it might make me look bad, if anyone comes across anything I said about demar's 3 point shooting feel free to throw it up. I'm a big fan of accountability.

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

You can put in category 3 by the way. Which I would define as "people who believe that past behaviour, although not 100% accurate, is the best predictor of future behaviour". In regards to the NBA the MORE minutes a players logs in game time, the better past behaviour is at predicting future behaviour. This seems to ESPECIALLY hold true once said player has logged more than 10,000 minutes in the nba.

The above quote is the basis of the methodology I use when trying to guesstimate whether a player is going to improve. I thought it would be good to separate it out because it isn't particularly about derozan (but the methodology I use to evaluate him, and everyone else), and because I buried it in the middle of a ridiculously long post, and I wanted to make my thought process as transparent and clear as possible, in case people want to challenge me on it (which is fair).

Before I started to adhering to this methodology, my previous method of predicting whether or not players would improve, was basically a subconscious process that went like this:

Players that personally liked were very likely to improve, and players I personally disliked were not likely to improve. Funny enough, whether I liked a certain basketball player or not DID NOT seem to have an effect on their future performance. Go figure.

Although I will admit that my newer methodology is not the only methodology one could use, I have found that I am MUCH better at predicting players performances than I once was. The downside, is that I'm less hopeful about players I like improving, the upside is that i'm less disappointed when they don't and much more surprised if they do. I don't think that this outlook or methodology could be accurately described as pessimistic, but am I wrong?

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon