Strategies for the Fantasy Football Bonus Point System

This season the Bonus Point System has changed and the players we normally expect to get points have not performed well at all. The new bonus points system seems not to reward assists, wingers and attacking defenders as much as last year. We investigate what is going on.

Fantasy Football Manager Summary

Methodology

In this article we look at how the bonus points are calculated. We investigate each bonus point “event” to see if it has a material effect on the overall Bonus Point System points (‘BPS points’) and the types of players most impacted. We propose a way of thinking about players by position so you can identify who is likely to collect the most BPS points. Finally we look at this season compared to previous seasons to identify if the bonus point allocation to date has been unusual.

Results

We found players will earn bonus points relative to their position on the pitch.

Position

Default
BPS

Top
BPS

Event

Likelyhood of top BPS

Other

Goalkeeper

5

10

Clean Sheet

Every 3-4 games

Centerbacks

6

10

Clean Sheet

Every 3-4 games

Wingbacks

4

8

Clean Sheet

3 times per season

+ 4 BPS for a goal

Defensive Central Mids

5

Attacking Central Mids

4

10

Assist

Every 3-4 games

+ 3 BPS for a goal

Wingers

3

6

Assist

Every 4 – 5 games

+ 3 BPS for a goal

Forwards

2

10

Goal

Every 2 – 3 games

+ 3 BPS for an assist

The top BPS is the points they are likely to earn if the event occurs. For example, if a defender keeps a clean sheet they are likely to earn 10 BPS points, but only earn 6 BPS points if they do not keep a clean sheet. We found there is evidence to suggest forwards and attacking central midfielders will earn more bonus points than to-date, but we expect wingers are unlikely to earn many more bonus points than to date.

Conclusion

In the absence of goals, center backs offer the greatest chance of BPS points. If a goal is scored then forwards and central attacking midfielders offer the greatest chance of BPS points. Wingers and wingbacks have been penalised because they have less opportunity to earn BPS points by virtue of their playing position, although a goal or an assist will help, and it is likely wingers will turn out to be over valued unless the winger also scores goals. We advocate prioritising attacking central mids over wingers, for example, Debele over Chadli. We also think overlaping fullbacks like Rafael will be seen as over valued and I expect more points to be found in central defenders and attacking central midfielders. However, we do not see enough evidence for a move away from 3-4-3 if you have the right mids., although we see benefit in 4-3-3.

Our stats

Our next step (next week) is to include the below analysis in our statistical rankings. We will update the points we expect each position to earn, re-rank the players, and then provide you with a new BPS rank where each player is rated “Good,” “OK,” or “Poor” on the likelihood of them scoring a sufficient amount of BPS points.

How are bonus points earned?

Just like previous seasons, bonus points are the allocated to players based on the 3-2-1 structure. What has changed is the way that the bonus points are calculated. OPTA are now providing the stats to EA who will then calculate the bonuses based on the criteria that has been posted on the Fantasy Premier League site. The following explanation is from the FPL site’s rules section:A new Bonus Points System (BPS) has been created which utilises a range of statistics to create a BPS score for every player. The three best performing players in each match will be awarded bonus points. 3 points will be awarded to the highest scoring player, 2 to the second best and 1 to the third. Examples of how bonus point ties will be resolved are as follows:

If there is a tie for first place, Players 1 & 2 will receive 3 points each and Player 3 will receive 1 point.

If there is a tie for second place, Player 1 will receive 3 points and Players 2 and 3 will receive 2 points each.

If there is a tie for third place, Player 1 will receive 3 points, Player 2 will receive 2 points and Players 3 & 4 will receive 1 point each.

How is the BPS score calculated?Players score BPS points based on the following statistics (one point for each unless otherwise stated):

Playing in a game

Playing over 60 minutes

Scoring goals

Goalkeepers and defenders (4 points)

Midfielders (6 points)

Forwards (8 points)

Assists (3 points)

Goalkeepers and defenders keeping a clean sheet (4 points)

Saving a penalty (5 points)

For every 3 saves

For every 3 open play crosses

Creating a big chance (a chance where the receiving player should score)

For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total)

For every 8 recoveries

Providing key passes

Making 3 tackles

Scoring the goal that wins a match

Pass Completion (after making at least 30 passes)

70% completion (1 point)

80% completion (2 points)

90% completion (3 points)

Players lose BPS points based on the following statistics (one point for each unless otherwise stated):

Conceding a penalty

Missing a penalty (-2 points)

For every 2 goals conceded by goalkeepers and defenders

Yellow cards

Red cards (-3 points)

Own goals (-2 points)

Missing a big chance

Making an error which leads to a goal

Every 2 errors leading to an attempt at goal

Being tackled 3 times

Conceding 2 fouls

Being caught offside 3 times

Missing the target with 3 shots

Data is supplied by Opta and once it has been marked as final will not be changed. For the avoidance of doubt, points awarded in-game are subject to change up until one hour after the final whistle of the last match of any given day. Once the points have all been updated on that day, no further adjustments to points will be made.” Preseason we identified that Mertesacker would have earned more BPS than Baines.

That is not to say Mert would have earned more Bonus Points than Baines, only more BPS. Lets look at each of the bonus point rules each in turn to see why.

What metrics matter in the Bonus Point System?

Every player who features in a game gets one BPS. So this is no different and we will ignore this metric when choosing players.

Playing over 60 minutes

We advocate picking players who play, not super subs. There is an underlying expectation that every player you choose is a first team player, so we will ignore this metric when choosing players.

Scoring goals

Goalkeepers and defenders (4 points)

The goalies and defenders who scored 3 or more goals last season are

Name

Team

Position

Games

Goals

Leighton Baines

Everton

D(L)

38

5

Branislav Ivanovic

Chelsea

D(CR)

33(1)

5

Jan Vertonghen

Tottenham

D(CL)

34

4

Emmerson Boyce

Wigan

D(CR),M(R)

36

4

Patrice Evra

Manchester United

D(L)

34

4

Daniel Agger

Liverpool

D(CL)

35

3

Angel Rangel

Swansea

D(R)

30(3)

3

Russell Martin

Norwich

D(CR)

30(1)

3

Rafael

Manchester United

D(R)

27(1)

3

Gareth McAuley

West Bromwich Al…

D(C)

36

3

Per Mertesacker

Arsenal

D(C)

33(1)

3

Sébastien Bassong

Norwich

D(C)

34

3

Michael Turner

Norwich

D(C)

25(1)

3

Jonny Evans

Manchester United

D(C)

21(2)

3

We can see quite a few players get 3, 4 or 5 goals per season. However, the first 9 players are wide defenders and not central defenders. Below you will see central players have a greater opportunity for BPS points than wide players.

Midfielders (6 points)

The midfielders who scored 6 or more goals last season are

Name

Team

Position

Games

Goals

Gareth Bale

Tottenham

D(L),M(CLR)

33

21

Michu

Swansea

AM(C),FW

35

18

Frank Lampard

Chelsea

M(C)

21(8)

15

Theo Walcott

Arsenal

AM(R),FW

24(8)

14

Santiago Cazorla

Arsenal

M(CLR)

37(1)

12

Juan Mata

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(4)

12

Marouane Fellaini

Manchester United

M(C)

31

11

Kevin Nolan

West Ham

AM(C)

35

10

Steven Gerrard

Liverpool

M(C)

36

9

Eden Hazard

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(3)

9

Jonathan Walters

Stoke

AM(CLR),FW

38

8

Clint Dempsey

Tottenham

AM(CLR),FW

22(7)

7

Yaya Touré

Manchester City

M(C)

32

7

Stéphane Sessegnon

Sunderland

AM(CLR),FW

34(1)

7

Kevin Mirallas

Everton

AM(CLR)

23(4)

6

Yohan Cabaye

Newcastle United

M(C)

25(1)

6

Robert Snodgrass

Norwich

M(LR)

35(2)

6

Jason Puncheon

Southampton

AM(R)

25(7)

6

Steven Pienaar

Everton

AM(CLR)

35

6

Craig Gardner

Sunderland

D(R),M(CR)

32(1)

6

Shaun Maloney

Wigan

AM(CLR)

34(2)

6

Shinji Kagawa

Manchester United

AM(CL)

17(3)

6

Mikel Arteta

Arsenal

DM(C),M(L)

34

6

The majority of these midfielders who score play through the center. This is a theme you will read about again and again.

Forwards (8 points)

The forwards who scored 10 goals or more last season are

Name

Team

Position

Games

Goals

Robin van Persie

Manchester United

FW

35(3)

26

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

23

Christian Benteke

Aston Villa

FW

32(2)

19

Romelu Lukaku

West Bromwich Al…

FW

20(15)

17

Rickie Lambert

Southampton

FW

35(3)

15

Dimitar Berbatov

Fulham

AM(C),FW

32(1)

15

Edin Dzeko

Manchester City

FW

16(16)

14

Demba Ba

Newcastle United

AM(L),FW

19(1)

13

Wayne Rooney

Manchester United

AM(CL),FW

22(5)

12

Sergio Agüero

Manchester City

AM(CL),FW

22(8)

12

Jermain Defoe

Tottenham

FW

27(7)

11

Olivier Giroud

Arsenal

FW

24(10)

11

Carlos Tévez

Manchester City

AM(C),FW

28(6)

11

Arouna Koné

Wigan

AM(R),FW

32(2)

11

Steven Fletcher

Sunderland

AM(R),FW

28

11

Lukas Podolski

Arsenal

AM(CL),FW

25(8)

11

Javier Hernández

Manchester United

FW

9(13)

10

Interestingly only RVP, Suarez and Benteke achieved more than one goal every two games. Below you will see forwards have limited opportunity to earn BPS points other than from goals and assists, and have greater opportunity to lose BPS points week in week out.

Assists (3 points)

The players who provided the most assists last season are

Name

Team

Position

Games

Assists

Juan Mata

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(4)

12

Santiago Cazorla

Arsenal

M(CLR)

37(1)

11

Eden Hazard

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(3)

11

Theo Walcott

Arsenal

AM(R),FW

24(8)

10

Wayne Rooney

Manchester United

AM(CL),FW

22(5)

10

Lukas Podolski

Arsenal

AM(CL),FW

25(8)

9

Steven Gerrard

Liverpool

M(C)

36

9

Robin van Persie

Manchester United

FW

35(3)

8

Carlos Tévez

Manchester City

AM(C),FW

28(6)

8

Shaun Maloney

Wigan

AM(CLR)

34(2)

8

David Silva

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

29(3)

8

Bryan Ruiz

Fulham

AM(CR)

26(3)

7

Aaron Lennon

Tottenham

AM(R)

33(1)

7

Damien Duff

Fulham

AM(LR)

27(4)

7

Samir Nasri

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

22(6)

7

Jean Beausejour

Wigan

D(L),M(L)

32(2)

7

Jobi McAnuff

Reading

AM(CL)

38

7

Fernando Torres

Chelsea

FW

28(8)

6

Robert Snodgrass

Norwich

M(LR)

35(2)

6

Steven Pienaar

Everton

AM(CLR)

35

6

Jonathan De Guzmán

Swansea

M(C)

33(4)

6

Adam Johnson

Sunderland

AM(LR)

35

6

Pablo Hernández

Swansea

AM(CLR)

27(3)

6

Ashley Westwood

Aston Villa

DM(C)

28(2)

6

These are the players who last season earned loads of bonus points. I think it is best to focus on the central players and strikers (who score more than 10) on this list. Cazorla, Hazard, Gerrard and De Guzman all stand out to me.

Goalkeepers and defenders keeping a clean sheet (4 points)

The players who kept the most clean sheets last season are

Name

Team

Position

Clean
Sheets

Hart

MCI

GK

18

Johnson

LIV

DF

16

Agger

LIV

DF

15

Cech

CHE

GK

14

Mertesacker

ARS

DF

14

Begovic

STK

GK

12

Ivanovic

CHE

DF

12

Jose Enrique

LIV

DF

12

Baines

EV

DF

11

Jaaskelainen

WHU

GK

11

Mignolet

SUN

GK

11

Evra

MUN

DF

10

Jagielka

EVE

DF

10

Vertonghen

TOT

DF

9

So a goalkeeper like Joe Hart will earn 4 points every other game, where as Evra will earn 4 points every 3 games.

Saving a penalty (5 points)

Penalty saves are infrequent. In finals and playoff there is an expectation the goal keeper will only save one in five penalties. This table shows the total number of penalty saves per season

Year

Awarded

Scored

Missed

Saved

2007

82

61

4

17

2008

83

67

8

8

2009

106

85

2

19

2010

101

79

8

14

2011

99

71

6

22

2012

83

66

4

15

2013

9

6

0

3

There is an average of 13.57 saves per season, or just under one save every three weeks. Last season Schwarzer made the most saves of all of the premiership keepers with 3. Nobody else achieved 3 saves in the season. Despite there being 3 saves this season already, the “Penalty Save” is a fairly unusual event and we should ignore this metric when choosing players unless you spot a goal keeper behind a particularly clumsy set of defenders.

For every 3 saves

A save is a save, surely? Well OPTA say a save is when the goalkeeper prevents the ball from entering the goal with any part of his body. So the ball has to be heading into the goal for it to be a save. The average saves per game are

Date

Team

Name

Mins

Saves

SPG

2012/13

MCI

Hart

3420

75

1.97

2011/12

MCI

Hart

3420

99

2.61

2012/13

WHU

Jaaskelainen

3420

156

4.11

2011/12

WHU

Jaaskelainen

1620

63

3.5

2012/13

STK

Begovic

3420

117

3.08

2011/12

STK

Begovic

1998

84

3.78

2012/13

CHE

Cech

3195

126

3.55

2011/12

CHE

Cech

3060

94

2.76

2012/13

SUN

Mignolet

3420

155

4.08

2011/12

SUN

Mignolet

2571

91

3.19

2012/13

FUL

Schwarzer

3240

138

3.83

2011/12

FUL

Schwarzer

2700

106

3.53

2012/13

LIV

Reina

2790

81

2.61

2011/12

LIV

Reina

3051

85

2.51

2012/13

EVE

Howard

3240

98

2.72

2011/12

EVE

Howard

3420

88

2.32

2012/13

MUN

de Gea

2520

89

3.18

2011/12

MUN

de Gea

2610

111

3.83

2012/13

WBA

Foster

2700

100

3.33

2011/12

WBA

Foster

3330

109

2.95

2012/13

AVL

Guzan

3240

131

3.64

2011/12

AVL

Guzan

593

21

3.19

2012/13

ARS

Szczesny

2250

71

2.84

2011/12

ARS

Szczesny

3420

82

2.16

2012/13

SWA

Vorm

2307

89

3.47

2011/12

SWA

Vorm

3330

143

3.86

2012/13

TOT

Lloris

2430

58

2.15

2012/13

QPR

Cesar

2098

96

4.12

2012/13

NEW

Krul

2126

76

3.22

2011/12

NEW

Krul

3420

114

3

2012/13

WIG

Al-Habsi

2610

87

3

2011/12

WIG

Al-Habsi

3420

130

3.42

2012/13

NOR

Ruddy

1341

54

3.62

2011/12

NOR

Ruddy

3319

140

3.8

2012/13

RDG

Federici

1890

83

3.95

2012/13

SOU

Boruc

1755

46

2.36

2012/13

NOR

Bunn

1853

61

2.96

2011/12

NOR

Bunn

270

11

3.67

2012/13

SWA

Tremmel

1113

56

4.53

2012/13

RDG

McCarthy

1170

74

5.69

As you can see, most goal keepers average around 3 saves per game and rarely reach 6 saves per game. When picking goalkeepers we should assume all keepers will earn this BPS point, with the exception of Hart and Cech who don’t get as many opportunities to save.

For every 3 open play crosses

OPTA define a cross as a pass from a wide position into a specific area in front of the goal. The ball must be in play and not from a dead ball situation such as a corner, free kick, throw-in, goal kick or a goalkeeper pass-from-hands. The players with the highest number of crosses in the last few seasons are

Year

Rank
In Year

Name

Team

Position

Games

Average
Crosses
Per Game

2012

1

Leighton Baines

Everton

D(L)

38

2.8

2011

1

Jermaine Pennant

Stoke

AM(R)

18(9)

2.6

2011

2

Martin Petrov

Bolton

AM(LR)

30(1)

2.4

2012

2

Robert Snodgrass

Norwich

M(LR)

35(2)

2.2

2012

3

Barry Bannan

Aston Villa

M(CLR)

18(6)

2.2

2012

4

Jonathan De Guzmán

Swansea

M(C)

33(4)

2.1

2011

3

Sebastian Larsson

Sunderland

M(CLR)

32

2.1

2012

5

Jean Beausejour

Wigan

D(L),M(L)

32(2)

2

2011

4

Leighton Baines

Everton

D(L)

33

2

2011

5

Matthew Etherington

Stoke

M(LR)

30

2

2011

6

Matthew Jarvis

Wolverhampton …

AM(LR)

31(6)

2

The difficulty here is knowing what the Open Play Cross rate is. Looking only at crosses, in the last three season only Baines, Pennant and Barton have come close to 3 crosses per game, so the “open play crosses” value has to be the same or lower. I think we can assume most player will rarely achieve three open play crosses and for the most part we can discount this metric. I also think this is one part of the reason why midfielders are not getting as many bonus points this season. I think if you spot a player who crosses, like Nani, Lennon, etc, who has a good run of fixtures where he has a chance to be attacking, then keep this metric in mind for one extra BPS. For the majority of players we can ignore this BPS metric.

Creating a big chance (a chance where the receiving player should score)

OPTA say a big chance is a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range. So the creation of a big chance is the person who passed the ball prior to creating the big chance. This table shows the average number of big chances per game

Year

Rank
In Year

Name

Team

Position

Games

Average
Scoring
Chances
Created

2012

1

Santiago Cazorla

Arsenal

M(CLR)

37(1)

0.8

2012

2

David Silva

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

29(3)

0.5

2011

3

Luka Modric

Tottenham

M(CL)

36

0.5

2011

4

Samir Nasri

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

26(4)

0.5

2011

2

David Silva

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

33(3)

0.5

2011

10

Juan Mata

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

29(5)

0.4

2011

5

Robin van Persie

Arsenal

FW

37(1)

0.4

2011

7

Charlie Adam

Liverpool

DM(C)

27(1)

0.4

2011

6

Rafael van der Vaart

Tottenham

AM(CLR)

28(5)

0.4

2012

3

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

0.4

2012

6

Jack Wilshere

Arsenal

M(CL)

20(5)

0.4

2011

8

Tomas Rosicky

Arsenal

M(CLR)

19(9)

0.4

2012

5

Jordi Gómez

Wigan

AM(CLR)

17(15)

0.4

2012

4

Yaya Touré

Manchester City

M(C)

32

0.4

2011

11

David Luiz

Chelsea

D(C),DM(C)

18(2)

0.4

Forwards get the big chance, but it is usually attacking midfielders and forwards create the big chance. Cazorla features highly as does Young, Silva and Nasri. All other players have an average of less than one big chance every two games. I think we can ignore this metric when choosing players, however, I do thinks this is another reason why midfielders are not getting as many bonus points this season.

For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total)

A clearance is a defensive action where a player kicks the ball away from his own goal with no intended recipient of the ball. A block is where a player blocks a shot from an opposing player, and an interception is where a player intentionally intercepts a pass by moving into the line of the intended ball. Repeating the above analysis – without overdoing the tables, the highest average number of blocked shots per game was 1.4, most central defenders were around 1 and other defenders and defensive mids were around 0.5; the highest number of interceptions per game was Morgan Schneiderlin at 3.8, most defensive mids and central defenders were between 2 and 3 interceptions per game, and other defenders were between 2.5 and 1.5; so clearances seems to have the biggest impact on this BPS event. The top 20 players for clearances last season were

Position

Name

Team

Position

Games

Average
Clearances
Per Game

1

Ciaran Clark

Aston Villa

D(CL),DM(C)

28(1)

11.3

2

Ryan Nelsen

Queens Park Ran…

D(C)

21

11

3

James Collins

West Ham

D(C)

29

10.9

4

Ashley Williams

Swansea

D(C)

37

10.3

5

Michael Dawson

Tottenham

D(C)

23(4)

10

6

Clint Hill

Queens Park Ran…

D(CL)

31

9.9

7

Brede Hangeland

Fulham

D(C)

35

9.6

8

Carlos Cuéllar

Sunderland

D(CR)

26

9.2

9

Sylvain Distin

Everton

D(C)

31(3)

9.2

10

Nathan Baker

Aston Villa

D(CL)

25(1)

9.1

11

Winston Reid

West Ham

D(C)

36

8.9

12

Steven Taylor

Newcastle United

D(C)

24(1)

8.8

13

Jose Fonte

Southampton

D(C)

25(2)

8.8

14

Jan Vertonghen

Tottenham

D(CL)

34

8.7

15

Chico

Swansea

D(CR)

26

8.7

16

Adrian Mariappa

Reading

D(C)

29

8.4

17

Jonny Evans

Manchester United

D(C)

21(2)

8.3

18

Aaron Hughes

Fulham

D(CR)

23(1)

8.1

19

Robert Huth

Stoke

D(CR)

35

8

20

John O’Shea

Sunderland

D(CLR)

34

7.9

You can see this is highest for central defenders. So central defenders tend to do more clearances, more blocks and more interceptions than most other players. While it seems obvious, you can see from the stats that central defenders should earn an extra bonus point compared to other positions, and in “end-to-end” games they should earn two points. This could be why Zabaleta has earned far more bonus points than other city defenders and more than Hart.

For every 8 recoveries

A recovery is where a player wins back the ball after it has gone loose or where the ball has been played directly to him. I have been unable to find any published information on “recoveries” other than for Liverpool FC, and if you find any please let me know so we can include this in the analysis.

Providing key passes

OPTA say a key pass is different from a big chance. A key pass is a pass/cross that is instrumental in creating a goal-scoring opportunity, for example a corner or free-kick to a player who then assists an attempt, a chance-creating through ball or cross into a dangerous position. While defenders can earn points by doing what matters to them (one point for every 8 interceptions, clearances and interceptions, so most defenders should earn one extra point, perhaps 2), this metric allows attacking players mids and forwards to pick up BPS points. This table shows the 40 players with the highest average number of key passes per game for last season.

Position

Name

Team

Position

Games

Average
Key Passes
Per Game

1

David Silva

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

29(3)

3.3

2

Leighton Baines

Everton

D(L)

38

3.1

3

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

2.7

4

Juan Mata

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(4)

2.7

5

Steven Gerrard

Liverpool

M(C)

36

2.6

6

Santiago Cazorla

Arsenal

M(CLR)

37(1)

2.5

7

Adel Taarabt

Queens Park Ran…

AM(CL)

25(6)

2.5

8

Steven Pienaar

Everton

AM(CLR)

35

2.3

9

Gareth Bale

Tottenham

D(L),M(CLR)

33

2.3

10

Stewart Downing

Liverpool

M(LR)

25(4)

2.2

11

Rickie Lambert

Southampton

FW

35(3)

2.1

12

Yohan Cabaye

Newcastle United

M(C)

25(1)

2

13

Aaron Lennon

Tottenham

AM(R)

33(1)

2

14

Samir Nasri

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

22(6)

2

15

Esteban Granero

Queens Park Ran…

M(CR)

19(5)

2

16

Eden Hazard

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(3)

1.9

17

Jean Beausejour

Wigan

D(L),M(L)

32(2)

1.9

18

Jack Wilshere

Arsenal

M(CL)

20(5)

1.9

19

Chris Brunt

West Bromwich Al…

M(CLR)

23(8)

1.9

20

Mousa Dembélé

Tottenham

M(CR),FW

26(4)

1.8

21

Pablo Hernández

Swansea

AM(CLR)

27(3)

1.8

22

Shaun Maloney

Wigan

AM(CLR)

34(2)

1.8

23

James Morrison

West Bromwich Al…

M(CLR)

33(2)

1.8

24

Robin van Persie

Manchester United

FW

35(3)

1.8

25

Wayne Rooney

Manchester United

AM(CL),FW

22(5)

1.8

26

Carlos Tévez

Manchester City

AM(C),FW

28(6)

1.8

27

Robert Snodgrass

Norwich

M(LR)

35(2)

1.8

28

James Milner

Manchester City

M(CLR)

19(7)

1.7

29

Bryan Ruiz

Fulham

AM(CR)

26(3)

1.7

30

Jonathan De Guzmán

Swansea

M(C)

33(4)

1.6

31

Kevin Mirallas

Everton

AM(CLR)

23(4)

1.6

32

Adam Johnson

Sunderland

AM(LR)

35

1.6

33

Christian Benteke

Aston Villa

FW

32(2)

1.6

34

Wayne Routledge

Swansea

AM(CLR)

30(6)

1.6

35

Sylvain Marveaux

Newcastle United

AM(CLR)

10(12)

1.5

36

Gary O’Neil

West Ham

M(CR)

17(7)

1.5

37

Raheem Sterling

Liverpool

AM(LR)

19(5)

1.5

38

Kyle Walker

Tottenham

D(R)

36

1.5

39

Mark Noble

West Ham

DM(C)

25(3)

1.5

40

Matthew Jarvis

West Ham

AM(LR)

29(3)

1.4

What is interesting about this table is these are the play makers we read about in the papers. So Silva and Baines in-effect start every game with 3 BPS, Suraez, Gerrard etc start with two. There is also a loose correlation between the players who make key chances and the players who get fouled a lot.

Rank

Name

Team

Position

Games

Fouls
Against

1

Stéphane Sessegnon

Sunderland

AM(CLR),FW

34(1)

2.5

2

Shaun Maloney

Wigan

AM(CLR)

34(2)

2.5

3

Steven Pienaar

Everton

AM(CLR)

35

2.5

4

Robert Snodgrass

Norwich

M(LR)

35(2)

2.4

5

Eden Hazard

Chelsea

AM(CLR)

31(3)

2.3

6

Demba Ba

Newcastle United

AM(L),FW

19(1)

2.3

7

Danny Rose

Sunderland

D(L)

25(2)

2.3

8

Raheem Sterling

Liverpool

AM(LR)

19(5)

2.3

9

Giorgos Karagounis

Fulham

AM(C)

20(5)

2.2

10

Andy Carroll

West Ham

FW

22(2)

2.2

11

Jack Wilshere

Arsenal

M(CL)

20(5)

2.1

12

Adel Taarabt

Queens Park Ran…

AM(CL)

25(6)

1.9

13

Nathan Dyer

Swansea

AM(R)

25(12)

1.9

14

Jobi McAnuff

Reading

AM(CL)

38

1.9

15

Leon Osman

Everton

M(CLR)

36

1.9

16

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

1.8

17

Jonás Gutiérrez

Newcastle United

M(CLR)

34

1.8

18

Shane Long

West Bromwich Al…

FW

25(9)

1.7

19

Gastón Ramírez

Southampton

AM(CR),FW

20(6)

1.7

20

Bryan Ruiz

Fulham

AM(CR)

26(3)

1.7

Making 3 tackles (NET)

OPTA say a tackle is awarded if a player wins the ball from another player who is in possession. If he is attempting to beat the tackler, the other player will get an unsuccessful Take-on. If he is in possession but not attempting to “beat” his man, then he will get a dispossessed. A goalkeeper who comes out and claims the ball at the feet of a forward gets a smother, similar but not the same as a tackle. So we can exclude mareric goalkeepers from this

Be aware this is net successful tackles, which is the total of all successful tackles minus any unsuccessful tackles (thankfully players are not be awarded negative BPS points for this). The players with the highest number of tackles per game last season were

Position

Name

Team

Position

Games

Average
Tackles
Per Game

1

Lucas Leiva

Liverpool

DM(C)

24(2)

4.7

2

Morgan Schneiderlin

Southampton

DM(C)

36

4.1

3

Pablo Zabaleta

Manchester City

D(LR)

29(1)

3.8

4

Steve Sidwell

Fulham

M(C)

24(4)

3.8

5

Claudio Yacob

West Bromwich Al…

DM(C)

29(1)

3.6

6

Mark Noble

West Ham

DM(C)

25(3)

3.6

7

Mohamed Diamé

West Ham

DM(C)

31(2)

3.5

8

Sandro

Tottenham

DM(C)

22

3.3

9

Chico

Swansea

D(CR)

26

3.3

10

Gaël Clichy

Manchester City

D(L)

26(2)

3.2

11

Geoff Cameron

Stoke

D(LR),DM(C)

29(6)

3.2

12

Ramires

Chelsea

M(CLR)

28(7)

3.2

13

Mikel Arteta

Arsenal

DM(C),M(L)

34

3.2

14

Rafael

Manchester United

D(R)

27(1)

3.1

15

Yohan Cabaye

Newcastle United

M(C)

25(1)

3.1

16

Craig Gardner

Sunderland

D(R),M(CR)

32(1)

3.1

17

Jan Vertonghen

Tottenham

D(CL)

34

3.1

18

Mikele Leigertwood

Reading

DM(C)

29(1)

3

19

Carlos Cuéllar

Sunderland

D(CR)

26

2.9

20

Matthew Lowton

Aston Villa

D(R),M(R)

37

2.8

You can see that there are very few players who average more than 3 tackles per game. The ones who do are mostly central defenders or deep playing mids. I think this is another opportunity for central defenders to earn bonus points.

Scoring the goal that wins a match

This is effectively the last goal scorer in any game that does not end in a draw and is almost impossible to predict.

As pass is when ball is intentional played from one player to another. This includes,

Chipped pass – a lofted ball where there is a clear intended recipient

Headed pass – a header where there is a clear intended recipient

Launch – a long high ball into space or into an area for players to chase or challenge for the ball

Cross – a pass from a wide position into a specific area in front of the goal

Flick-on – a glancing pass with head or foot onto a team mate where the ball is helped on in the same general direction

Pull back – a pass inside the penalty area which is pulled back from the goal-line to the centre of the penalty area

Lay-off – a ball returned back to where it came from (usually by a forward) with one touch

Through Ball – a pass splitting the defence for a team-mate to run on to.

The variety of passes logged surprised me. Flick ons and other “sexy football” events only pay off half the time mean glamourous players are rewarded less than stable players. If you remember Jamie Redknap then you’ll know he only knew how to pass sideways and never did anything dangerous so probably had a pass completion rate of 99.99%. Yawn, lets reward the mundane players – lol. This table shows the average % completion rate for the top 40 players of last season

Rank

Name

Team

Position

Games

Average
Pass Completion
Percentage

1

Ki Sung-Yueng

Swansea

DM(C)

20(9)

92.7

2

Jamie Carragher

Liverpool

D(CR)

16(8)

92

3

Mikel Arteta

Arsenal

DM(C),M(L)

34

91.5

4

Per Mertesacker

Arsenal

D(C)

33(1)

91.5

5

Leon Britton

Swansea

DM(C)

30(3)

91.4

6

Mousa Dembélé

Tottenham

M(CR),FW

26(4)

90.9

7

Samir Nasri

Manchester City

AM(CLR)

22(6)

90.8

8

Martin Skrtel

Liverpool

D(C)

23(2)

90.5

9

Giorgos Karagounis

Fulham

AM(C)

20(5)

90.3

10

Tom Cleverley

Manchester United

M(CLR)

18(4)

90.2

11

Steven Taylor

Newcastle United

D(C)

24(1)

90.1

12

Shaun Maloney

Wigan

AM(CLR)

34(2)

89.9

13

Shinji Kagawa

Manchester United

AM(CL)

17(3)

89.7

14

Joe Allen

Liverpool

M(C)

21(6)

89.7

15

Rio Ferdinand

Manchester United

D(C)

26(2)

89.6

16

Joleon Lescott

Manchester City

D(C)

17(9)

89.6

17

Jonny Evans

Manchester United

D(C)

21(2)

89.3

18

Chico

Swansea

D(CR)

26

89.3

19

Vincent Kompany

Manchester City

D(C)

26

89.2

20

Javi García

Manchester City

DM(C)

17(7)

89.1

21

John Obi Mikel

Chelsea

DM(C)

19(3)

88.9

22

Yaya Touré

Manchester City

M(C)

32

88.9

23

James Perch

Newcastle United

D(CR),DM(C)

19(8)

88.9

24

Jonathan De Guzmán

Swansea

M(C)

33(4)

88.8

25

Ashley Cole

Chelsea

D(L)

31

88.8

26

David Vaughan

Sunderland

DM(C)

6(18)

88.7

27

Daniel Agger

Liverpool

D(CL)

35

88.7

28

Fabricio Coloccini

Newcastle United

D(C)

22

88.6

29

Gary Cahill

Chelsea

D(C)

24(2)

88.4

30

Aaron Ramsey

Arsenal

M(CR)

21(15)

88.2

31

Michael Carrick

Manchester United

D(C),DM(C)

34(2)

88.1

32

Fabian Delph

Aston Villa

DM(C)

19(5)

87.8

33

Lucas Leiva

Liverpool

DM(C)

24(2)

87.6

34

Claudio Yacob

West Bromwich Al…

DM(C)

29(1)

87.5

35

Sylvain Marveaux

Newcastle United

AM(CLR)

10(12)

87.3

36

James McCarthy

Wigan

M(CL)

38

87.3

37

Patrice Evra

Manchester United

D(L)

34

87.1

38

Jan Vertonghen

Tottenham

D(CL)

34

87.1

39

Damien Duff

Fulham

AM(LR)

27(4)

86.9

40

Matija Nastasic

Manchester City

D(C)

21

86.9

This metric rewards the players in the middle of the pitch. Central defenders and central midfielders. 3 bonus points every match for central defenders who are excellent at distributing the ball from the back, players like the retired Carragher, like Mertesaker and Ferdinand. With 3 points for an assist and 3 points for a high pass rate, I think this is the reason that defenders are being rewarded over attacking midfielders (after all, how many crosses and corners fail to get past the first man!), and why Mertesaker had a higher BPS for last season than Baines. There is always an exception to prove the rule, check out Nasri, Kagawa and De Guz right up there. We should assume that most players will earn one bonus point from pass completion rate, and central players earn 2 points. If the central player plays for a top 7 team then its likely they will earn 3 BPS points every game.

Players lose BPS points based on the following statistics (one point for each unless otherwise stated):

Conceding a penalty

Any infringement that is penalised by a referee and results in a penalty. We looked at penalties above and the average number of penalties per season was 92, or one penalty every 4.1 games. I have been unable to identify the players who conceded the most penalties last season. So I have this table for you instead. It shows the number of penalties faced by each team.

Team

# Penalties

Aston Villa

8

Wigan Athletic

7

West Bromwich Albion

6

Fulham

6

Arsenal

6

Liverpool

5

Stoke City

5

Southampton

5

Norwich City

5

Swansea City

5

Newcastle United

4

Reading

4

Sunderland

4

Everton

3

Tottenham Hotspur

3

Manchester City

2

Queens Park Rangers

2

West Ham United

2

Chelsea

1

Manchester United

0

You can see Villa and Wigan faced the greatest number of penalties. My feeling from these stats is it is almost impossible to predict when this event will have an impact on a player’s BPS, so we should accept these as fluctuations of fate.

Missing a penalty (-2 points)

A penalty miss is even rarer than a penalty save, and we should ignore this metric when trying to identify players likely to earn high bonus points. For example, if Nolan missed two penalties in a row, would you sell him because he might miss a third and you miss out on 2 bonus points? No, I thought not.

For every 2 goals conceded by goalkeepers and defenders

The average number of goals per game is 2.46 goals per game. We should assume teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.

Yellow cards

The following players received 7 or more yellow cards last season

Rank

Name

Team

Postition

Games

Yellow
Cards

5

Dean Whitehead

Stoke

DM(C),M(R)

12(14)

9

6

James Collins

West Ham

D(C)

29

9

7

James Perch

Newcastle United

D(CR),DM(C)

19(8)

9

8

Leon Osman

Everton

M(CLR)

36

9

9

Morgan Schneiderlin

Southampton

DM(C)

36

9

10

Ryan Shawcross

Stoke

D(C)

37

9

11

Stéphane Mbia

Queens Park Ran…

D(C),DM(C)

29

9

12

Steven N’Zonzi

Stoke

DM(C)

35

9

13

Billy Jones

West Bromwich Al…

D(R)

24(3)

8

14

Clint Hill

Queens Park Ran…

D(CL)

31

8

15

David Luiz

Chelsea

D(C),DM(C)

29(1)

8

16

Gary Caldwell

Wigan

D(C)

25

8

17

Grant Holt

Norwich

FW

28(6)

8

18

Jonás Gutiérrez

Newcastle United

M(CLR)

34

8

19

Marouane Fellaini

Manchester United

M(C)

31

8

20

Ramires

Chelsea

M(CLR)

28(7)

8

21

Robert Snodgrass

Norwich

M(LR)

35(2)

8

22

Winston Reid

West Ham

D(C)

36

8

23

Yohan Cabaye

Newcastle United

M(C)

25(1)

8

24

Angel Rangel

Swansea

D(R)

30(3)

7

25

Ashley Williams

Swansea

D(C)

37

7

26

Charlie Adam

Stoke

DM(C)

22(5)

7

27

Cheik Tioté

Newcastle United

DM(C)

22(2)

7

28

Christian Benteke

Aston Villa

FW

32(2)

7

29

Claudio Yacob

West Bromwich Al…

DM(C)

29(1)

7

30

Esteban Granero

Queens Park Ran…

M(CR)

19(5)

7

31

Fabian Delph

Aston Villa

DM(C)

19(5)

7

32

Glen Johnson

Liverpool

D(LR)

36

7

33

James McArthur

Wigan

AM(C)

24(10)

7

34

James McCarthy

Wigan

M(CL)

38

7

35

Jan Vertonghen

Tottenham

D(CL)

34

7

36

Mark Noble

West Ham

DM(C)

25(3)

7

37

Pablo Zabaleta

Manchester City

D(LR)

29(1)

7

38

Steve Sidwell

Fulham

M(C)

24(4)

7

39

Wayne Rooney

Manchester United

AM(CL),FW

22(5)

7

We can see the majority of these players are central mids and defenders, and would seem to negate the 3 tackles BPS. Personally I feel we should ignore both this metric and the 3 tackles metric when trying to identify players likely to earn high bonus points as one offsets the other.

Red cards (-3 points)

There were only two players who were shown more than one red card last season. Sidwell and Pienaar both were given two reds. We should ignore this metric when tying to identify players likely to earn high BPS points, and put the reds down to karma.

Own goals (-2 points)

Own goals are reasonably rare. The players who scored 2 or more own goals last season were

Rank

Name

Team

Position

Games

Number
Of Own Goals

1

Jos Hooiveld

Southampton

D(C)

23(2)

3

2

Gareth McAuley

West Bromwich Al…

D(C)

36

2

3

Jonathan Walters

Stoke

AM(CLR),FW

38

2

4

Jonny Evans

Manchester United

D(C)

21(2)

2

5

Leighton Baines

Everton

D(L)

38

2

6

Nathan Baker

Aston Villa

D(CL)

25(1)

2

Just keep this in mind if you choose one of these players.

Missing a big chance

Missing the target with 3 shots

I love these two measures. Players who shoot loads with no end product are penalised. Without looking at the stats my first thought was Torres! I was unable to find a table of missed big chances. Instead I have prepared a table of the number of shots vs the number of goals scored, which should give us an approximation of the wastefulness of some players. I have only included players who’s missed shots ratio is greater than 2.

Name

Team

Position

Games

Shots – Goals
Per Game

Shots
Per Game

Goals

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

5

5.7

23

Gareth Bale

Tottenham

D(L),M(CLR)

33

4.36

5

21

Demba Ba

Newcastle United

AM(L),FW

19(1)

3.85

4.5

13

Adel Taarabt

Queens Park Ran…

AM(CL)

25(6)

3.04

3.2

5

Robin van Persie

Manchester United

FW

35(3)

3.02

3.7

26

Andy Carroll

West Ham

FW

22(2)

3.01

3.3

7

Jermain Defoe

Tottenham

FW

27(7)

2.88

3.2

11

Olivier Giroud

Arsenal

FW

24(10)

2.78

3.1

11

Carlos Tévez

Manchester City

AM(C),FW

28(6)

2.78

3.1

11

Wayne Rooney

Manchester United

AM(CL),FW

22(5)

2.76

3.2

12

Santiago Cazorla

Arsenal

M(CLR)

37(1)

2.68

3

12

Michu

Swansea

AM(C),FW

35

2.59

3.1

18

Marouane Fellaini

Manchester United

M(C)

31

2.55

2.9

11

Christian Benteke

Aston Villa

FW

32(2)

2.54

3.1

19

Sergio Agüero

Manchester City

AM(CL),FW

22(8)

2.5

2.9

12

Edin Dzeko

Manchester City

FW

16(16)

2.46

2.9

14

Arouna Koné

Wigan

AM(R),FW

32(2)

2.38

2.7

11

Kevin Mirallas

Everton

AM(CLR)

23(4)

2.38

2.6

6

Steven Gerrard

Liverpool

M(C)

36

2.35

2.6

9

Jay Rodriguez

Southampton

AM(CL),FW

24(11)

2.33

2.5

6

Romelu Lukaku

West Bromwich Al…

FW

20(15)

2.31

2.8

17

Frank Lampard

Chelsea

M(C)

21(8)

2.28

2.8

15

Victor Anichebe

Everton

AM(R),FW

19(7)

2.27

2.5

6

Theo Walcott

Arsenal

AM(R),FW

24(8)

2.26

2.7

14

Papiss Demba Cissé

Newcastle United

AM(R),FW

35(1)

2.18

2.4

8

Clint Dempsey

Tottenham

AM(CLR),FW

22(7)

2.16

2.4

7

Rickie Lambert

Southampton

FW

35(3)

2.11

2.5

15

Nikica Jelavic

Everton

FW

26(11)

2.11

2.3

7

Yohan Cabaye

Newcastle United

M(C)

25(1)

2.07

2.3

6

Dimitar Berbatov

Fulham

AM(C),FW

32(1)

2.05

2.5

15

Hugo Rodallega

Fulham

AM(L),FW

14(15)

2

2.1

3

This list is the majority of the popular attacking players. There were a further 79 players who’s goals – shots was 1. I think if you have a big name attacking player you should assume they will be deducted three BPS every game, two for missing two big chances and one for missing the target more than three times. If you have a low-ownership attacking player you should assume they will be deducted 1 BPS every game, for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots . This is another reason why attacking players are being penalised over defensive players.

Making an error which leads to a goal

The ying and yang of the BPS. Every goal is rewarded, every mistake penalised. I have been unable to find stats on this measure. If you find any please let me know.

Every 2 errors leading to an attempt at goal

Again I have been unable to find stats on this measure. If you find any please let me know. However, I think it is safe to assume all central defenders and mids should be deducted a point for the combination of this measure and the “error leading to a goal” error unless there is an expectation of a clean sheet.

Being tackled 3 times

OPTA say a tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the man in possession. A Tackle Won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”. A Tackle Lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player. We can only assume this means tackles lost, rather than just being tackled. The players who were dispossessed the most last season were

Rank

Name

Team

Position

Games

Dispossessions
Per Game

1

Charles N’Zogbia

Aston Villa

AM(CLR)

11(10)

2.9

2

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

2.8

3

Sergio Agüero

Manchester City

AM(CL),FW

22(8)

2.8

4

Bryan Ruiz

Fulham

AM(CR)

26(3)

2.7

5

Raheem Sterling

Liverpool

AM(LR)

19(5)

2.7

6

Arouna Koné

Wigan

AM(R),FW

32(2)

2.6

7

Mohamed Diamé

West Ham

DM(C)

31(2)

2.5

8

Demba Ba

Newcastle United

AM(L),FW

19(1)

2.5

9

Youssuf Mulumbu

West Bromwich Al…

DM(C)

28

2.5

10

Christian Benteke

Aston Villa

FW

32(2)

2.4

11

Emmanuel Adebayor

Tottenham

FW

18(7)

2.4

12

Steven Pienaar

Everton

AM(CLR)

35

2.4

13

Marouane Fellaini

Manchester United

M(C)

31

2.4

14

Wes Hoolahan

Norwich

AM(C)

28(5)

2.3

15

Stéphane Sessegnon

Sunderland

AM(CLR),FW

34(1)

2.3

16

Adam Lallana

Southampton

AM(CL)

26(4)

2.2

17

Dimitar Berbatov

Fulham

AM(C),FW

32(1)

2.2

18

Andy Carroll

West Ham

FW

22(2)

2.1

19

Esteban Granero

Queens Park Ran…

M(CR)

19(5)

2

20

Robin van Persie

Manchester United

FW

35(3)

2

A high number of attacking players on this list, and again another reason why attacking players lose out to defensive players. That said, looking at the average I think being tackled 3 times would be an unusual event and I think we can discount this measure when looking for players who will earn good bonus points.

Conceding 2 fouls

I was unable to find any stats on this measure, however, I think it ties in with the yellow card measure above. If you have a player who is likely to lose a point because of a yellow card, then they most certainly would have already lost a point from conceding two fouls. Avoid dirty players when targeting players for bonus points.

Being caught offside 3 times

A player is marked as being offside when the player is deemed to be in an offside position when a free kick is awarded. The players who earned the most offsides last season are

Rank

Name

Team

Position

Games

Off Sides
Per Game

1

Christian Benteke

Aston Villa

FW

32(2)

1.5

2

Grant Holt

Norwich

FW

28(6)

1.3

3

Papiss Demba Cissé

Newcastle United

AM(R),FW

35(1)

1.3

4

Nikica Jelavic

Everton

FW

26(11)

1.2

5

Robin van Persie

Manchester United

FW

35(3)

1.2

6

Romelu Lukaku

West Bromwich Al…

FW

20(15)

1.2

7

Luis Suárez

Liverpool

AM(CLR),FW

33

1.2

8

Dimitar Berbatov

Fulham

AM(C),FW

32(1)

1.1

9

Rickie Lambert

Southampton

FW

35(3)

1

10

Javier Hernández

Manchester United

FW

9(13)

0.9

11

Bobby Zamora

Queens Park Ran…

FW

16(5)

0.9

12

Emmanuel Adebayor

Tottenham

FW

18(7)

0.8

13

Pavel Pogrebnyak

Reading

FW

26(3)

0.8

14

Theo Walcott

Arsenal

AM(R),FW

24(8)

0.8

15

Fernando Torres

Chelsea

FW

28(8)

0.8

16

Arouna Koné

Wigan

AM(R),FW

32(2)

0.8

17

Jamie Mackie

Queens Park Ran…

AM(R),FW

17(12)

0.8

18

Steven Fletcher

Sunderland

AM(R),FW

28

0.7

19

Shane Long

West Bromwich Al…

FW

25(9)

0.6

20

Michu

Swansea

AM(C),FW

35

0.6

Our favourite strikers The average per game is 1.5, so I don’t think we need to be overly concerned about this measure other than for Benteke.

How do I spot players likely to earn bonus points?

Now we have investigated each of the BPS events in depth, lets pull it all together by player position.

Forwards

Forwards will earn

Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.

Earn 8 points for each goal and we should expect one goal every 2 – 3 games depending on the player. RVP, Suarez, Benteke, Lukaku, Lambert, Dimi

Earn 3 points for an assist, once every 3 games. Rooney, Podolski, RVP

Providing key passes 1 – 2 per game. 1 extra if dead-ball specialist.

If you have a big name attacking player you should assume they will be deducted three BPS every game, two for missing two big chances and one for missing the target more than three times. If you have a low-ownership attacking player you should assume they will be deducted 1 BPS every game, for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots .

-1 for being caught offside if you are Benteke

We can expect a non-scoring forward will earn two PBS points per game. If they provide an assist they will get five BPS points and if they score they will get ten BPS points.

Wingers

Wingers earn

Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.

Earn 6 points for each goal and we should expect one goal every 4 – 5 games depending on the player. Walcott, Hazard, Walters,

-1 if you have Mirrallas or Walcott for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots

We can expect a non-scoring winger to earn three BPS points per game. Six if they provide an assist and nine if they score.

Attacking Central Mids

Attacking central players earn

Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.

Earn 6 points for each goal and we should expect one goal every 3-4 games depending on the player. Michu, Lamps, Cazorla, Mata, Fellaini, Nolan, Gerrard, Yaya

Earn 3 points for an assist, once every 3-4 games. Mata, Cazorla, Gerrard

Creating a big chance. Only Young, Silva, Nasri and Cazorla

Providing key passes 1 per game. 1 extra if dead-ball specialist.

Pass success percentage – central players earn 1 points. If the central player plays for a top 7 team then its likely they will earn 2 BPS points every game.

If you have a big name attacking player you should assume they will be deducted two BPS points every game, one for missing a chance and one for missing the target more than three times. If you have a low-ownership attacking player you should assume they will be deducted 1 BPS every game, for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots .

We can expect non-scoring free-kick taking attacking-central mids from top 7 teams to earn four BPS points, and ten points when they assist, thirteen points when they score. This is a key difference between central mids, forwards and wingers.

Defensive Central Mids

Defensive central mids earn

Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.

Earn 6 points for each goal and we should expect no more than 10 goals per season depending on the player. Gardner, Arteta

Earn 1 point for making 3 tackles – 1 point for yellow cards

Pass success percentage – central players earn 2 points. If the central player plays for a top 7 team then its likely they will earn 3 BPS points every game.

Five BPS points per game

Wingbacks

Wingback earn

Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.

Earn 4 points for each goal and we should expect no more than 3 goals per season (depending on the player). Baines, Evra, Rangel, and Rafael

For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total), most central defenders will pick up a point for this.

3 bonus points every match for central defenders who are excellent at distributing the ball from the back, players like the retired Carragher, like Mertesaker and Ferdinand.

-1 for teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.

-1 for errors leading to an attempt at goal unless you expect a clean sheet.

Six BPS per game. Ten if a clean sheet.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeepers earn

Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.

With the exception of Joe Hart, we should expect 4 clean sheet bonus points once every 3 -4 games. Hart, Cech, Bergvic, Jasskelainen and Mignolet

We should assume 1 point for 3 saves, except for Hart and Cech.

-1 for teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.

Five bonus points per week. Nine if a clean sheet is kept.

A summary

We have focused on good players earning points. so to give you a profile for all players, we think the scoring profile will be

Position

Default BPS

Top BPS

Event

Likelyhood
of top BPS

Other

Goalkeeper

5

10

Clean Sheet

Every 3-4 games

Centerbacks

6

10

Clean Sheet

Every 3-4 games

Wingbacks

4

8

Clean Sheet

3 times per season

+ 4 BPS for a goal

Defensive Central Mids

5

Attacking Central Mids

4

10

Assist

Every 3-4 games

+ 3 BPS for a goal

Wingers

3

6

Assist

Every 4 – 5 games

+ 3 BPS for a goal

Forwards

2

10

Goal

Every 2 – 3 games

+ 3 BPS for an assist

and the event profile for each type of player will be

Clearnances

Pass
Success

Passes
Per game

Key Passes
Per Game

Offsides
Given

Goals

Assists

Forward

0.67

70.29

15.47

0.6

0.33

0.45

0.05

Mid

1.53

79.66

32.46

0.74

0.03

0.16

0.14

Centre back

7.21

84.22

43.13

0.24

0.08

0.07

0.02

Defensive mid

1.94

83.63

38.28

0.44

0.01

0.03

0.03

Wing back

3.1

74.72

35.51

0.65

0.03

0.09

0.16

Goalkeeper

0.8

51.93

18.09

0.03

0

0

0

Wing

0.82

81.39

20.9

1.06

0.41

0.03

0.2

Attacking Mid

1.14

79.09

28.92

1.18

0.31

0.4

0.21

Defender

5.11

80.86

29.59

0.25

0.02

0.05

0.1

We will plug these figures into our stats next week to give you a PBS rating of “Good”, “OK”, and “Poor” for each player.

Goals and Clean Sheets for this season

A lot of managers have felt we have had fewer goals and more clean sheets than a “normal season”. Does this stand up to scrutiny? In the first 3 game weeks of the 2012-13 season we were treated to 25 clean sheets in 30 games, 33 home goals and 25 away goals. This table shows how that compares to previous seasons.

Year

Clean
Sheets

Home
Goals

Away
Goals

Total
Goals

2007-08

13

37

30

67

2008-09

16

44

35

79

2009-10

18

27

39

66

2010-11

20

55

31

86

2011-12

24

41

32

73

2012-13

17

52

36

88

2013-14

25

33

25

58

So focusing on clean sheets, the average number of clean sheets in the first 3 weeks of the season is 19, the average number of home goals is 41.2 and the average number of away goals is 32.6. This season we have 6 more clean sheets than average. 6 is perhaps unusual, but not extraordinary. What has stood out to me is that this season is the total number of goals is a lot lower than in previous seasons. Pre-season we expected a lot of goals in the opening three weeks and this has not happened. We have not seen crazy results like

Manchester United 8 – 2 Arsenal

Newcastle United 6 – 0 Aston Villa

Wigan Athletic 0 – 6 Chelsea

Everton 1 – 6 Arsenal

Perhaps a low number of goals at the start of the season means a low number of goals at the end of the season? This table shows us the total goals scored for each season

Season

Number
Of Goals

Average
Goals Per Game

2007-08

905

2.38

2008-09

831

2.19

2009-10

933

2.46

2010-11

946

2.49

2011-12

951

2.50

2012-13

953

2.51

For the last four years we have been given over 930 goals per season, or 2.46 goals per game. We can see in 2009-10 and 2007-08 there were under 70 goals at the start of the season but over 900 by the end of the season. Therefore, I think the number of goals scored in the first 3 weeks of this season has been unusually low but I don’t this this trend will last and we should expect the goals to come soon. The lack of goals has an impact on the distribution of bonus points, and to do a fair analysis on the distribution of bonus points we need to know who is not giving us our goals and if these goals (if scored) would have made a difference. This table shows us the positions of the players who scored in the first 3 weeks of previous seasons.

Year

Forwards

Mids

Defenders

2007-08

31

25

11

2008-09

43

35

11

2009-10

35

22

9

2010-11

41

34

11

2011-12

43

21

9

2012-13

42

35

11

2013-14

30

18

10

We can see the number of goals scored by forwards and mids is both down in 2013, where as the number of goals scored by defenders is reasonably consistent. If we look at the goals scored in the first 3 weeks by position as a percentage

Year

Forwards

Mids

Defenders

2007-08

46.3%

37.3%

20%

2008-09

56.6%

46.1%

10%

2009-10

53%

33.3%

10%

2010-11

48.8%

40.5%

10%

2011-12

59.7%

29.2%

10%

2012-13

47.7%

39.8%

10%

2013-14

51.7%

31%

20%

The average is 52% of the goals in the first 3 weeks come from forwards, 37% from midfielders and 14% from defenders (including own goals). My view of this season is that the forwards are not scoring at home as usual (for the start of the season), and the mids are just not scoring as usual. Is the first 3 weeks of the season a good indicator of the rest of the season? Looking at who scored the goals

Year

Forwards

Mids

Defenders

Goalkeepers

2007-08

475

334

96

0

2008-09

438

285

108

0

2009-10

489

320

124

0

2010-11

461

359

126

0

2011-12

518

327

105

1

2012-13

456

369

110

0

or as a percentage

Year

Forwards

Mids

Defenders

Goalkeepers

2007

52.5

36.9

10.6

0

2008

52.7

34.3

13

0

2009

52.4

34.3

13.3

0

2010

48.7

37.9

13.3

0

2011

54.5

34.4

11

0.1

2012

48.8

39.5

11.8

0

The average goals by position is 51.6% forwards, 36.2% mids and 12.2% defenders, and in a normal season we would have seen an extra 10 goals for forwards and another 7 goals for mids. I think we can safely say that forwards and attacking central mifielders have not earned the bonus points we would expect, where as wingers are unlikely to have earned bonus points regardless of if they had provided an assist.

What’s the implication for our teams?

I think wingers will turn out to be over valued unless the team is playing three up front or with very forward wingers, like Villa, Southampton or Liverpool. I feel overlaping fullbacks like Rafael will be seen as over valued and I expect value to be found in central defenders and attacking central midfielders. However, I do not see enough evidence for a move away from 3-4-3, although we see 4-3-3 as being strong in the current climate of clean sheets.

What other sites have said…

Fantasy Football Geek – Goal scorers will continue to be rewarded. Assisters are far less likely to get the bonus points. Goal scoring midfielders such as Walcott Michu and Lampard will continue to be rewarded. Assist based midfielders like Jarvis Downing and Lennon will be disadvantaged. Clean sheets are good for defenders making them worth investing in. All Things FPL – Defenders are the biggest winners, Strikers and attacking winger lose out. The new bonus system is best suited for players that play for clubs who like to play possession football. The likes of Arsenal, Swansea, Southampton and Liverpool tend to do well. Total FPL – Goals are definitely the main factor contributing to bonus points. Scoring 1 goal will yield on average 1.77 bonus points. Centre-backs do have a better chance of getting bonus points, on average they have an 0.45 higher return from bonus points over their defensive colleagues when earning a clean sheet What do you think? Know of a good player who should earn a lot of BPS points? Get involved below.

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217 thoughts on “Strategies for the Fantasy Football Bonus Point System”

Great article Chorley. Considering the BPS strategy, I need to replace Ramage from my squad. Any ideas on a decent defender below 6.0m with a good run of fixtures and some attacking potential? I already have Shaw, Zabaleta and Coleman.

Hey guys… has anyone seen Sakho play?
Can’t find all too much about him online, but Rogers considers him a Marque and seems like a cheap way into the Pool defense for a good run of fixtures… at Center Back he also seems likely to score some bonus points if Pool keep some clean sheets… BUT… I can’t specifically remember seeing him play and what his style is…

oh… and who are the top punts for goal scoring mids?
Is it just me, or have these seemingly dried up?
Mata not playing, Michu stuck behind some true central attackers…
At the start of the season (excluding the above) I thought they would be Walcott, Coutinho, Mirallas, Gerrard, Hazard, Lampard and to a lesser extent.. Caz, Silva and Paulinho / Chadli….
Are these still the same, or has this list changed?

Lamela? Very interested to see how he gets on – good scoring record and has played a lot of his football up front. Can see him scoring – if he scores early I’ll be bringing him as my Spurs coverage to replace Soldado

Recent transfers look to have helped Mirallas and Coutinho who both may start to see more time in the AMC position rather than on the wings.

aah, yeah… hadn’t considered him… should prove to be an interesting option and should start to link up with Saldado far more as soon as he starts getting regular gametime.
After doing the analysis for this article and seeing how few goals had been scored… I decided to look closer at the players themselves… realised we’ve really been starved of quality mids / mid-forward attacking partnerships…
Coutinho out wide and little real creativity of Gerrard in the middle has limited both’s chances of scoring
Mirralas had a similar issue with Fellaini taking the middle and no real attacking power in the front to link up with..
Walcott’s just been unlucky
Hazard can’t really get hold of anything as long as Oscar is scatter gunning it at goal every chance he gets from miles out (that kid really needs to learn that it’s a team sport, regardless of how much talent he has)
United… well, they don’t really have any creativity or scorers at all… hopefully Moyes can get Fellaini working his magic again
City… don’t really know what their problem is, but not crazy about any of their midfield options
And, just like that… virtually no real options from the top teams in the opening week….
Hopefully now with all the transfers Mirallas, Walcott / Ozil, Coutinho and Lamela will come good.

risks –
Weak(ish) mid to compensate for strong defence – I may be wrong but have a strong hunch about this.
Ivan – tough run coming up considering swap for Evra or Vidic until Chels fixtures ease up
Dawson playing time – willing to risk it as he’s such good value at £5m and has played 90 in every game so far
Lamela – playing time and impact – can he translate Serie A form to prem?
Sturridge – injury?
RVP – dont have him. Am never going to feel comfortable about that

It’s a good looking team… as far as bang for buck goes, it’s definitely on target… the defenders definitely provide a better points for price opportunity and I like the options you’ve gone with.
The only thing I’ve yet to see fully though is where those bonus point go when we have both a clean sheet as well as a goal… does the goal scorer and assisting player get the points or are they distributed?

Anyway.. my team is looking similar.. trying to give myself a little more room to balance between GWs though… something like:

With Johnson being out for 10 weeks, is this the time to take a cheeky attempt at Wisdom? Can’t really see any other right back being ready in the squad atm, as Kelly is still getting back to form.
The only backdraw could be Liverpool switching to a back 3 to accomodate Sakho, but I doubt this will happen in the next few weeks anyway.

DaBonks… really can’t say… with Cissokho and Sakho coming in, it’s tough to predict how they are going to line up.
Rogers has been on a bit of a drive to establish some real goal scoring options up front without a reliance on Suarez while at the same time setting up a really solid defense.
He has also been on record saying that he considers Sakho a Marque signing, so we can definitely expect some good gametime out of him… as to how they line up…. and whether they will switch to a back 3… that’s anyone’s guess at this point, however I can’t see him changing it up too much as the current set up has been working well….
Personally I see the same set-up with Sakho replacing Toure / Skrtel and Wisdom possibly replacing Johnson, yes

DaBonks… personally I’d recommend Enrique if you can, Liverpool have a great run of fixtures and Cissokho was bought in almost exclusively to put more pressure on Enrique to perform… which tells me he will be doing his damnedest to put in some good performances…. But I am one of those that believe we should be spending a bit more on our defense due to the new BPS… so it really does rely on that

I’m really rueing doing early transfers now, why don’t I listen to the established wisdom! Two transfers already done this week, cech > mignolet and Dzeko > Giroud, both reasonable at the time, but as you can see from below I now have Hazard and Silva injured and Ramage is off to Barnsley:

So my question is this, do I just tread water and sub Diame and Turner in for Hazard and Silva and get them both out next week for a 4 point hit? I know a WC is an option but I’d like to try and save it for money making in the next long gameweek gap of 7-8. What do you all think?

they are marked as 75% fit, so they could be OK. We often hear of injuries to players on double-game international-breaks, so Its probably worth riding this one out as it could be just “smoke and mirrors”.

So I played my wildcard at the end of last gameweek and have been building value since then, but now it’s time to decide on the team I wish to play with starting Saturday. Taking in the new BPS allocation, United’s, Arsenal’s and Liverpool’s upcoming good run of fixtures, and form, I’ve come up with this:

Mignolet

Mertesacker – Walker – Vidic (Coleman, Chester)

Walcott – Ben Arfa – Hernandez – JWP (Barkley)

RVP (c) – Sturridge – Giroud (vc)

In the bank: 0.5m

3 fairly expensive defenders means I can switch Walker/ Vidic for someone solid from Chelsea/ Liverpool/ City if I’m unhappy with their performances. I have my eye on Cahill but opted for Walker and Vidic due to their easier fixtures.

The midfield is obviously where I miss out somewhat. Walcott I think could get some goals and BPS this season and he’s been unlucky so far and I’m set on keeping him. Also going to keep Barkley/ JWP for value reasons. Ben Arfa hogs the ball a lot but if Newcastle do anything it will come through him. The only downside to having him is he plays 3 away fixtures in the next 4 and I’m not totally sold on Newcastle’s attacking threat. I do have £0.5m in the bank and I am debating using that money to upgrade him to Nani/ Mirallas/ Nolan but again I’m not particularly sold on any of those 3 at the moment. Hernandez is good value and I’m happy to keep him at the moment now Swansea’s fixtures are easing up a little.

Up front is where I’m very happy and where I hope the majority of my points will come. Serious investment for serious reward (hopefully). I figured that if I were to ever get RVP in then it would have to be now, and with him playing Palace next and then easier fixtures after GW6, I can’t really resist. I fancy him to knock in a few goals soon and he’s likely to score a few braces which should see him collect all 3 bonus points. Sturridge and Giroud are also the in-form players at the moment so happy to keep those, especially with their fixtures.

Thoughts? Too top heavy? Midfield’s too weak? Too much money in the defence?

you have a few more days yet. Wait till after the international break so make sure you know who is injured. Also, most Managers do their transfers on a Friday afternoon at work, so by hanging on till Saturday morning you will make the most out of any player price rises.

That said, there is no harm in talking about your team.

Nani could be a good shout, Nolan is the better call. I’d avoid Mirallas for now as Everton’s fixtures are not great.

All in all I like your team but I would encourage you to think about subs that rotate/alternate.

Cheers CR. I am definitely going to wait until Saturday morning to make my changes but I’m trying to nail down the team I want as I’m working this Saturday and will need to make the changes quickly before I head out in the morning. Taking your rotation advice into consideration something like this could work (based on West Ham and Fulham rotating for a bit and Everton and Southampton):

A bit more balance and investment in the midfield at the detriment of my defence. I’d be looking to throw in a Stoke defender at some point too for rotation purposes after the next couple of gameweeks.

Hey CR..outside of Arsenal in 3 weeks their fixtures look alright to me, teams tend to change after post international break so its difficult to predict but United have got city next week and Swansea have some tough fixtures so West Brom looked like they are going to have winnable games for the next 2 GW’s..I plan to move to 4-3-3 after this GW so Sessegnon will be rotated in and out of my squad.

He is also part of my plan to bring Suarez in when he’s available

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