Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods

Abstract

In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.

This research was supported by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Paul Hewett provided valuable research assistance. An earlier version of this article was presented in the Session on Mathematical Demography at the 2004 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 1-3, Boston. Thomas Buettner, Patrick Gerland, Griffith Feeney, Francois Pelletier, John Wilmoth, and two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on an early draft.

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