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Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Western Thoughts on an Egyptian Revolution...or Don't Call Me a Coup

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There seems to be some debate about the
ouster of now former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Is it a coup? Is it a
revolution?

The feeling from friends of mine in
Egypt is that this is not a coup, but a continuation of the revolution. In
fact, they are in vehement opposition to the word coup and have great disdain
for any mention of the military taking over on any kind of permanent basis.

Having lived in Cairo for close to two years, I was asked my thoughts. So here
they are:

Personally, I think a few things come
into play here.

First, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) definitely took advantage of a vacuum in
leadership when they won the election. Many voted for Morsi as the lesser of
two evils, the other candidate being associated with the Mubarak regime. And
many abstained from voting as their way of showing their support for someone
other than the MB figurehead or a Mubarak man (even if that someone didn't
exist). To give the MB credit, they were already a well established political
force prior to Mubarak's fall, gaining the support of many through their
charitable works, offering of assistance to the poor, performing of public
works, and really living up to many of the social ideals of Islam. It has been
said that they did prey upon the more unfortunate members of the voting public
by offering things like cooking oil as an incentive to come out and vote for
Morsi. The MB knew how to mobilize the voters and won the election as a result.
In a country as unorganized as Egypt, the MB was the shining example of
organization and order and moved right in and filled the vacuum. I remember
when I was having dinner in Salalah, Oman two years ago, one of the members of
the dinner party was an Egyptian that used to fly back and forth between Oman
and Cairo for the protests. He commented to me that Mohamed ElBaradei (the
newly appointed Vice President in Egypt), who was the hoped-for president of
many, came a generation to early. He clarified this by saying that the
revolution was happening without a strong leader to stand up and lead it to a
productive end. He worried that the MB would seize power and turn Egypt into
another Iran. In his mind, ElBaradei was not willing or able to be that leader
due to opposition against him. That lack of a revolutionary leader is what
allowed the MB to move into power with relative ease.

Second, the MB has the stated goal of creating a worldwide Islamic Republic.
Their charter basically (paraphrased) states that Islam starts with the individual,
moves to the family, then to the community, then to the country, then to the
nation (larger area than just the country), to the new Caliphate, to worldwide
Islamic rule. Egypt was supposed to be their charter country and their leadership
of Egypt was concerned less with Egyptians (ask any Coptic about this - many of
whom have fled including close friends of mine who are struggling to get by in
their new Chicago home), and more concerned with the institution of Sharia and
Islamic principals. Most of the principals of the revolution, including
equality, religious tolerance, women's right, free speech, the end of unlawful
search, seizure, and imprisonment, among others, were pretty well thrown out by
the MB. The final straw, I believe, was when the Egyptian equivalent of Jon
Stewart from the Daily Show, Bassem Youssef, was arrested for insulting the
Egyptian Government, the President, and Islam (according to Morsi and the MB).
Imagine Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert being jailed for what they say on their
respective shows and you have what happened in Egypt. I think this is what
truly showed Egyptians that they were living under the heavy handle of Islamist
rule, and moving further and further away from the promise of the revolution.

Third, many Egyptians thought that the overthrow of Mubarak was the end of the
revolution, not the beginning of a long and likely bloody march toward
democracy. As Thomas Jefferson said, "The tree of liberty must be
refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
The Egyptian liberty was a sapling with shallow roots, but many thought it was
ready to bear fruit and that Cairo would wake up the next morning with all the
wealth and opportunity of the West. An Egyptian friend of mine, currently on a
very slow recovery from a tragic car accident (insert prayer request here), mentioned
that many were basically sitting around after Mubarak's fall waiting to become
rich. And I have no doubt, knowing many in Egypt and their relative ignorance about what life can really be like in the West, that many Egyptians thought that Mubarak was keeping
vast sums of money, jobs, benefits, and opportunities behind some secret door.
With him gone, all that goodness would flood into the streets and everyone would
have a high paying job, expendable cash, a Mercedes, and their own apartment
just as soon as the key to that non-existent door was found. What the
presidency of Morsi and the MB showed many in Egypt is that the process is in
its infancy and will require years, if not decades, of blood, sweat, and tears.

Finally, I might be naive in saying this, but I think the Army actually has the
interests of Egypt at heart. I think the speed in which they are moving with
their political roadmap, the throwing out much of what the MB put into place as
far as processes and constitutions go (that constitution that passed by 60%,
but was voted on by something like only 25% of the representatives due to
abstaining and disagreement, largely due to the very heavy Islamist/Sharia
bent), the appointment of a new Prime Minister and Vice President (finally
getting ElBaradei to be approved despite the opposition of the Islamist Noor
party), and the (hopefully not empty) promise of bringing all sides to the
table of the political process (including the MB) point to this. Serving in the
Egyptian Army is non-volunteer requirement of every Egyptian male (excluding,
of course, those who are rich or well-connected enough to get out of the
requirement). Many in the Army echo the feelings of the revolution and
hopefully this carries forward in the promise of the political road map.

As it stands, I think the Army tried to force Morsi's hand, but truly there was
no hand for Morsi to play. For Morsi to have changed and worked with the
protestors would've meant the Muslim Brotherhood changing. Make no mistake;
Morsi was their mouthpiece and figurehead, there to advance the agenda of the
MB in their march toward a new caliphate. The MB is not a new or minor party,
but an organized, determined, and experienced group of Islamists that sees
nothing less than the establishment of worldwide Islam as it's mission,
purpose, and goal. The Egyptian people realized this, and the Army backed the
millions of protestors. I don't know if this is as much a coup as it is a
military/revolutionary impeachment.

That this ouster of Morsi happened on the dawn of a new Ramadan holiday is
hopefully a portend of good things to come. Ramadan is the month of
reconciliation, relieving of debts, renewing family ties, and pledging oneself
to a new commitment of goodwill and peace. It is the month of coming together
to work out problems and differences so that the next period is one of well being
and cooperation. I hope that holds true for Egypt. Because if it doesn't, I'm
afraid that the debate between coup and revolution will get lost in a bloody
Civil War and possibly plunge the Middle East into a large scale regional
conflict running from Turkey, through Syria, into Lebanon and Jordan, and
ending in Egypt. With Israel stuck in the middle...And we all know the one
thing that the majority of those countries can agree on - their
dislike/disdain of Israel.