As Derek duPreez reported in his initial analysis of Inforum14, Infor is making a big play around its use of Amazon Web Services. The question in my mind: does it make sense?

When Infor announced it would be using Amazon’s Redshift as the business analytics platform, I questioned whether this was appropriate given the then recent Snowden revelations. My concerns remain although now I would expand them given the role of Amazon Web Services at the center of Infor’s cloud play.

Before doing so, I’d remind readers of Derek’s analysis, where he points to exchanges in the media Q&A:

Someone noted that Infor’s strategy is unusual compared to the rest of the cloud market, where most players have focused on building out their own infrastructure. Would customers feel more comfortable with an Infor-owned data centre? Should Infor have considered making some infrastructure investments? Phillips dismissed these claims and said:

“Coming later to the cloud actually helped us. I’ve seen these cloud-owned data centres and they aren’t run that well because it’s hard to do everything yourself. They can’t come close to what AWS can do.

There’s also reason that the number of cloud companies that have been out there for a decade still don’t make money, they haven’t figured out how to do it yet. We just think the economics work out better.”

Frank Scavo has his own take:

At least with newer SaaS providers, I’m not sure I agree that they are out building their own data centers #Inforum14

That’s right, but then most of those newer SaaS providers are not building end to end process based ERP solutions. All the solutions I have seen that run in AWS are either add-on or non-critical applications. Infor is different. Infor is saying that if you are in one of our verticals then you will probably be a candidate for our solutions and, if you want the cloud option then you’ll be running on AWS. That may well work for small and some mid-sized companies but I find it hard to believe large companies will tolerate that approach. Here’s why.

The deeper you go into the software functionality stack, the more dependent you become on the software provider. That is usually a good thing because the provider must keep on their toes to continue delivering innovation for your needs. If you are the vendor then you get to build a highly defensible moat around your intellectual property. Everyone wins. However, if you have regulatory constraints, then how you deploy becomes of greater importance.

Does Amazon care enough?

The difficulty with Amazon is that, as we have discovered, they don’t care too much about your regulatory issues or privacy. They will, when required to do so, hand over data to government bodies and without your consent. That may well be a minor issue in the context of 99.9% of small and some medium sized businesses, but as we already know, governments are quick to play fast and loose with data that comes into their hands. We also know that government has a disproportionate ability to screw up the assumptions they make from the data they see.

Reviewing Amazon is not therefore a simple hygiene factor in decision making, but one of understanding and assessing the balance of probabilities that your data may end up in the hands of a government not exactly given to knowing WTF it is doing. That risk may be small, and in the past, Infor has said that it is the first line of defence for its customers. But unless it explains that in more detail AND backs it with sensible contract language then those are just words.

Too costly?

Phillips’ argument that competitors haven’t figured out data center economics is a bit wild. If you review the financials of any large SaaS vendor, the cost of data center operations is a small percentage of operational cost. The big costs come in fueling growth and it is those that drop the vendors into loss or break even. Last year, when NetSuite was considering a foray into Europe, CEO Zach Nelson pointed out that the costs of spinning up a data center are almost trivial.

That’s not to say that Phillips is making the wrong argument. He may well know something about Amazon the rest of us don’t but there remains another factor, which, ironically, plays back to Phillips own argument. Amazon has been trading 20 years and to date has barely shown a profit for the amount of capital it has raised. Instead, it leverages excess cashflow to continue building out facilities while trying to keep as close to break even as possible. That is a defensible strategy provided the stock price remains on an upwards trajectory. If that changes then things become difficult very quickly.

Without wishing to get into the various economic arguments around Amazon, (that’s for another time) I find it difficult to believe that Phillips does not have a Plan B if Amazon’s lights are suddenly dimmed. To my knowledge, no-one has asked that question yet with SaaS revenue declared at what looks like a conservative $100 million per annum run rate and a ‘cloud-first’ approach to future sales, then it is only fair to ask how Infor will maintain control over its cloud infrastructure.

Speaking of control – most commentators believe Amazon will end up dominating the cloud infrastructure market. Google and Microsoft might have something to say about that but what happens if Amazon decides to unilaterally increase prices? What does that do to Infor’s model? At the very least, it begs another question. To what extent has Infor locked in cost for the benefit of its customers? That’s another handy question on the RFP to which I haven’t yet seen an answer.

Verdict

I have a great deal of personal admiration for Charles Phillips and his small team of executives. Their decisions are often purposeful, logical and clear. They suggest a roadmap that’s easy to understand and is well articulated. In short, they demonstrate a capacity to build trust that is unusual.

If you accept my arguments, then using Amazon represents a leap of faith. I am happy to be proven wrong but I still want comfort factors around my customers. That in turn means I want to see and hear language that provides customers with continuity assurance plus re-assurance that my corporate data is managed in my best interests.

Not convinced by your line of argument @dahowlett
Regarding security, there are simple methods to encrypt data before sending it to AWS that ensures Amazon can’t read it. So long as Infor is taking those precautions then neither Amazon nor the NSA can read what’s held in Amazon’s datacenters.
In addition, you say that other SaaS providers own their own infrastructure. But what’s to say that my infrastructure hosted at Equinix or CenturyLink is any safer from the prying eyes of the NSA than it is (if duly encrypted) at Amazon?
As for the dangers of Amazon becoming so dominant that it can hike up prices – well as soon as customers like Infor sniff any danger of that they’ll line up alternatives. It’s simply not a credible proposition.

philww To say ‘not convinced’ is not what I am hearing from large companies. You say: “as soon as customers like Infor sniff any danger of that they’ll line up alternatives. It’s simply not a credible proposition.” – you know perfectly well that building an infra for complex business process management is far from trivial even while spinning up a DC is relatively straightforward. Perhaps I should have emphasized that.
On the question of execution – that’s what matters. But then I am careful to point out that customers should look for assurance from Infor since they’re the primary provider.

If “spinning up a DC is relatively straightforward” for any market participants then basic pricing theory suggests prices can only go in one direction…down. Absolutely not up from here. The very idea that amazon could create a monopolist position such that they could raise prices doesn’t seem plausible to me.
And…any company housing data is required under fed law to hand it over under lawful demand. I really don’t understand that point specifically focused on Amazon.

granthalloran Amazon has aggressively priced to win market share but as we have seen in other areas it controls such as Kindle, the price difference between the analogue and digital versions doesn’t stack up on a value basis. There is nothing to say that once a monopoly position isn’t secured that Amazon would not use that to leverage up prices. We’ve seen that playbook before.

It’s not a question of what is lawful. It’s a question of how Amazon (or rather Infor) helps customers. The evidence so far suggests Amazon is not overly concerned about this aspect which is why I want to see assurances from Infor. It’s a question that has been asked in the past as it relates to their Redshift usage.

Go to Topics

Not convinced by your line of argument @dahowlett
Regarding security, there are simple methods to encrypt data before sending it to AWS that ensures Amazon can’t read it. So long as Infor is taking those precautions then neither Amazon nor the NSA can read what’s held in Amazon’s datacenters.
In addition, you say that other SaaS providers own their own infrastructure. But what’s to say that my infrastructure hosted at Equinix or CenturyLink is any safer from the prying eyes of the NSA than it is (if duly encrypted) at Amazon?
As for the dangers of Amazon becoming so dominant that it can hike up prices – well as soon as customers like Infor sniff any danger of that they’ll line up alternatives. It’s simply not a credible proposition.

philww To say ‘not convinced’ is not what I am hearing from large companies. You say: “as soon as customers like Infor sniff any danger of that they’ll line up alternatives. It’s simply not a credible proposition.” – you know perfectly well that building an infra for complex business process management is far from trivial even while spinning up a DC is relatively straightforward. Perhaps I should have emphasized that.
On the question of execution – that’s what matters. But then I am careful to point out that customers should look for assurance from Infor since they’re the primary provider.

granthalloran

If “spinning up a DC is relatively straightforward” for any market participants then basic pricing theory suggests prices can only go in one direction…down. Absolutely not up from here. The very idea that amazon could create a monopolist position such that they could raise prices doesn’t seem plausible to me.
And…any company housing data is required under fed law to hand it over under lawful demand. I really don’t understand that point specifically focused on Amazon.

granthalloran Amazon has aggressively priced to win market share but as we have seen in other areas it controls such as Kindle, the price difference between the analogue and digital versions doesn’t stack up on a value basis. There is nothing to say that once a monopoly position isn’t secured that Amazon would not use that to leverage up prices. We’ve seen that playbook before.

It’s not a question of what is lawful. It’s a question of how Amazon (or rather Infor) helps customers. The evidence so far suggests Amazon is not overly concerned about this aspect which is why I want to see assurances from Infor. It’s a question that has been asked in the past as it relates to their Redshift usage.