Time for the U.S. to Partner with China in Space?

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The future of America's space program is at a critical point in
time; decisions are being made that will affect our ability to
successfully maintain our leadership in human space flight, our
national security and our capability to successfully compete with
the international community in the commercial use of space.

What does the future hold for U.S. human spaceflight (HSF)? The
United States had been the undisputed leader in space exploration
for several decades, until recently.

With the completion of its last flight in July of 2011, the Space
Shuttle has been arbitrarily retired. And today, Russia is the
only partner in the International Space Station (ISS) program
that is able to transport astronauts and cosmonauts to and from
Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

The Space Shuttle amassed an impressive record of achievement
during its lifetime, culminating in the very successful assembly
of the International Space Station (ISS). It was a very versatile
spacecraft that allowed the crews to perform Extra-Vehicular
Activities (EVAs), assemble structures in space, repair
satellites, and perform spacecraft retrieval missions.

In addition, the Shuttle was also a superb research platform,
especially when equipped with a Spacelab or Spacehab module. It
could carry a cargo of 60,000 pounds (27,000 kilograms) to orbit
or return a cargo of equal weight to Earth.

In its place the U.S. is developing Orion, referred to as a
Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). Orion returns the nation to
flying capsules that return to Earth via parachutes using
technology from the 1960s. It has no capability to carry cargo,
support EVAs, do structural assembly in space, accomplish
satellite repair or retrieval missions. It returns to Earth by
parachute, landing in the water, as Orion is too heavy to be
recovered on land.

The MPCV is supposedly being developed for exploration missions
beyond Earth orbit but it provides no protection from space
radiation for the crew. The first planned human flight is
currently scheduled for 2021. That date is dependent upon the
availability of a new Space Launch System (SLS) rocket that is
yet to be developed.

Currently, only funds for research, development, and risk
mitigation have been awarded for SLS which, raises the question
of whether or not the launch system will ever be developed at
all.

NASA is also providing funding to three commercial space
endeavors. Some impressive achievements have been made. Most
notably SpaceX having succeeded in its first operational cargo
delivery mission in October 2012. These commercial enterprises,
with one exception, also employ 60s technology capsules returning
by parachute to water landings. These programs at best are
several years away from Initial Operational Capability (IOC) for
manned flights. And they are all currently dependent on being
funded by the government.

Thus, we can expect that "The Gap" in U.S. HSF capability that
started with the end of the last Space Shuttle mission in July
2011 will likely last another five years or longer. In the
meantime, fortunately, Russia continues to fly and support the
flights of American astronauts to space.

When considering the future direction of NASA one point is quite
clear. The construction of the ISS is now complete and the United
States should maximize the utilization of the Station. Research
aboard ISS will help answer the questions and provide solutions
that will enable future long duration flights out of Earth orbit.

One of the primary reasons for bringing the Russians into the
Station program was the desire to have dual access to the
Station. The dual access provided by the Space Shuttle and the
Russian Soyuz is the only reason we have a Space Station flying
today. The Space Shuttle was able to fulfill a need when Russia
experienced launch vehicle problems, and the Soyuz in a similar
fashion, fulfilled a need when the Space Shuttle was unable to
fly.

Dual access is critical to ensure the maximum
utilization of the Space Station.

This year China demonstrated manned rendezvous and docking,
flying a crew of three (which included China's first female
astronaut) to their crew-tended Tiangong-1 orbital vehicle. China
plans to launch the larger Tiangong-2 in 2013 and Tiangong-3, a
Zvezda-class core module in 2020.

The U.S. is at a decision point. On its present course, the
United States will lose at least the perceived leadership role in
human space exploration. But there is an alternate path and one
that would again provide for dual access to the Space Station.

The U.S. could lead the way to bring China into the ISS program,
and lead the work to adapt the Shenzhou spacecraft to be
compatible with the ISS. The U.S. would continue funding the
three commercial space endeavors to supplement and support the
logistic needs of the Station.

This path would allow the U.S. to retain its leadership position
in the current HSF program (ISS) while it re-evaluates the real
needs of an optimized exploration program. A program that would
transition the ISS partnership, with all its capabilities, to a
beyond-LEO program with the United States remaining as the lead
partner.

Thomas Reiter of the European Space Agency (ESA) has already
stated that ESA plans to hold a series of meetings with the China
National Space Administration, and explore closer cooperation in
the areas of astronaut training, spacecraft docking and
developing life support systems. ESA would also like China to
become a member of the ISS program if U.S. objections can be
overcome.

When Canada hosted the ISS Heads of Agencies Meeting on March 1,
2012, in Quebec City, Canada, Jean-Jacques Dordain,
director-general of the ESA, told reporters, "I am in favor of
seeing how we can work together with China. It will take some
steps, but it will come, I am sure."

Vladimir Popovkin, the head of the Russian space agency,
Roscosmos, also said the day will come when China and India will
work together with the five current partners -- the United
States, Russia, Canada, Japan and the ESA. "We are not a closed
club," he said. "Our doors are wide open."

A partnership with China could be developed along the same lines
as was done with integrating the Russian space program into the
ISS partnership. Using this model, no military-sensitive
technology would be transferred. China's economy would allow for
it to fully fund its own efforts. Thus there would be little
increased expense to the United States for developing this
advantageous relationship.

As Joan Johnson-Freese, a professor of national security affairs
at the Naval War College and author of numerous books on space,
including "Heavenly Ambitions: America's Quest to Dominate Space"
(University of Pennsylvania Press), told CNN on June 20, 2012,
prohibiting NASA by law from working with China makes no sense:

"If one believes that China and the United States are not
inherently enemies, then working together on space projects --
with technology transfer controls -- will benefit both
countries. If one believes that China is inherently a threat to
the United States, then the adage "keep your friends close and
your enemies closer" comes to mind. The script for U.S.-China
relations -- and space relations in particular -- is constantly
evolving. The United States can influence the direction, but
only if we engage and persuade the Chinese to engage with us.
It's one way of preventing a scenario of a galactic Wild West
in which China has become the world's leader in space."

It is clear the United State's International Partners see the
benefits of working with the Chinese on the Space Station; it is
time for the United States to provide the leadership to make it a
reality.

AUTHOR PROFILES:

George W.S. Abbey is the Baker Botts Senior Fellow in Space
Policy at the Baker Institute, at Rice University. From 1996 to
2001, he served as the director of NASA Johnson Space Center. His
NASA career spanned the US human spaceflight program from Gemini
and Apollo, through the Space Shuttle and International Space
Station programs.

Dr. Leroy Chiao is a former NASA astronaut and ISS commander.
He served as a member of the 2009 Review of U.S. Human
Spaceflight Plans Committee, and is the special adviser for human
spaceflight to the Space Foundation. He holds appointments at
Baylor College of Medicine and Rice University.