20% of antenna users to let TV sets go dark in 2009

When analog broadcasting goes dark in February 2009, most antenna users will …

Once over-the-air TV transmissions in the US go all digital in February, what's going to happen to all those analog TV sets in living rooms, basements, and bedrooms across the country? According to a new survey from ABI Research, 20 percent of the sets will simply "go dark."

Most sets will not; 70 percent of the surveyed TV watchers plan to hook a digital converter box up to their over the air antennas, while another 10 percent plan to switch over to cable or satellite pay-TV. According to analyst Steve Wilson, though, the rest of the current over the air households will simply stop watching traditional television altogether.

"Our survey data suggests that the net result of consumers' choices after analog switch-off will be a drop in overall terrestrial viewing," Wilson said. "Terrestrial viewers tend to be more likely to use alternative video entertainment forms such as DVD rentals and broadband video and the transition may push them further in that direction."

The explosion of TV shows appearing on DVD, coupled with the rise of online streaming video from sites like Hulu, certainly makes this possible to do without missing out on TV's prime content, but a closer look at the numbers shows that only a very few people will actually go this route.

The survey only included responses from viewers who watch over-the-air television, but this group actually includes very few Americans. Even back in 2005, when the Consumer Electronics Association was testifying before Congress about the possibility of fixing a hard date for the digital TV switchover, CEO Gary Shapiro said that 87 percent of US households would not be affected by any such date, as they already subscribed to cable or satellite services. Only 13 percent of households rely exclusively on terrestrial antennas (ABI Research says in its current survey that the number is 15 percent).

Assuming all these numbers are accurate, then, only 3 percent of US households will be switching off the tube for good in February. Still, that's impressive, and it's a figure that recalls the early years of the cell phone revolution when people first began ditching landline phones in favor of mobile devices.