10 preseason questions about the NFC: Cowboys, Saints look to be early favorites

Wednesday

Jul 25, 2007 at 12:01 AMJul 25, 2007 at 4:17 PM

As training camps open across Football America, here are 10 questions to ponder as the NFC tries to change its luck.

By Eric McHugh

For the Boston Celtics, the only ray of sickly light that emerged from the infamous NBA draft lottery fiasco (call it Black Tuesday for the Green), was the fact that uber prospects Greg Oden and Kevin Durant both landed in the Western Conference.

If they can’t join you, at least they won’t be beating your brains out in the East for the next 15 years, right?

To the West’s Murderers Row of the Spurs, Suns, Mavericks, Rockets and Jazz, you now can add the rejuvenated Trail Blazers and Sonics. Meanwhile, you and four guys from the Y could probably snag the seventh seed in the East if you practiced enough.

It’s not quite that bad in the NFL, but with the AFC producing four straight Super Bowl champs, six of the last seven and eight of the last 10, the NFC is veering dangerously close to junior varsity status.

Who can defend the conference’s honor this season? The Cowboys and Saints appear to be the best bets, while the Bears wrestle with the Super Bowl loser hex that had sabotaged the 2001 Giants (7-9), 2002 Rams (7-9), 2003 Raiders (4-12), 2004 Panthers (7-9) and 2005 Eagles (6-10). Last year’s Seahawks bucked the trend, but only at 9-7, and their playoff victory over the Cowboys came with an asterisk. (See Item No. 1 below.)

As training camps open across Football America, here are 10 questions to ponder as the NFC tries to change its luck:

1) Can Tony Romo regroup?

The Cowboys’ quarterback became a media and fan darling after sending Drew Bledsoe out to pasture for good in Week 8. After throwing five TD passes against Tampa Bay in November, however, his game tailed off badly down the stretch, and he became an all-time playoff goat when his botched hold on a 19-yard field goal attempt in Seattle cost the Cowboys their first playoff victory since 1996. Romo swears he won’t be haunted by the memory; let’s see if the ever-helpful Terrell Owens brings it up the first time Romo overthrows him in the end zone.

It probably helps Romo that Bill Parcells has retired, and the Cowboys are starting with a clean slate under Wade Phillips, the former Chargers defensive coordinator. Dallas didn’t try to trade up for freefalling Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn in the draft, which Romo should take as a vote of confidence. First-time offensive coordinator/play-caller Jason Garrett (a former Cowboys QB himself) was hired before Phillips came on board, which makes for an interesting dynamic. Dallas is a trendy Super Bowl pick, and the Cowboys should be in the mix, provided that receivers Owens and Terry Glenn don’t start showing their age (33).

2) Was it all a dream for the Saints?

Face it, everyone was a Saints fan a year ago when their triumphant return to a hurricane-ruined city became the ultimate feel-good story. Making the playoffs for the first time since 2000 and winning a playoff game for only the second time ever just added to the fairy tale. With their league-leading offense returning virtually intact – Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and Marques Colston are all back, and first-round rookie WR Robert Meachem replaces Joe Horn – New Orleans again should be a hoot to watch.

The defense is Job One this year. The Saints ranked 11th overall (No. 3 against the pass) during the regular season, but the playoffs (a 27-24 victory over Philly; a 39-14 loss in Chicago) exposed some flaws, such as an inability to force turnovers. They’ll keep their fingers crossed that DT Brian Young’s fractured foot is healed by September and that offseason acquisitions CB Jason David, S Kevin Kaesviharn and LB Brian Simmons can provide a boost. If they do, look out.

3) Can Rex Grossman keep his job?

The Bears quarterback has no bigger fan than head coach Lovie Smith, whose decision to let defensive coordinator Ron Rivera walk after the Super Bowl proves he isn’t afraid to make the unpopular move. The NFC crown didn’t necessarily endear Grossman to Bears fans, who still fret about his turnovers – 20 INTs during the regular season, plus two in the Super Bowl, including one returned for a clinching touchdown. Grossman’s a tough guy to figure – despite his sloppy mechanics and misplaced gunslinger bravado, he had seven games with a passer rating of 100 or better last year (two more than Tom Brady).

Chicago has had a tumultuous offseason. Franchised LB Lance Briggs is threatening a holdout, RB Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets, and DT Tank Johnson was cut. On the plus side, the NFC North is there for the taking again, and Grossman’s options will increase if first-round TE Greg Olsen is the real deal and electrifying returner Devin Hester’s experiment at receiver pans out.

4) What’s next for the Falcons?

The 2001 draft-day deal in which the Chargers swapped the No. 1 overall pick (Michael Vick) to Atlanta for, among other things, the No. 5 overall selection that became RB LaDainian Tomlinson just keeps looking better and better. And speaking of deals, what was Falcons GM Rich McKay thinking when he dealt star-in-waiting backup QB Matt Schaub to the Texans this offseason? Vick’s production and off- and on-field behavior (remember the obscene gesture to the fans?) had been throwing up red flags for a while, and his federal indictment on dogfighting charges is a stain the Falcons may never be able to wash away.

The NFL has ordered Vick to stay away from training camp until it can review the charges against him. This might allow Atlanta to do some much-needed PR damage control. But how many ticket-buyers and sponsors are going to get behind a team quarterbacked by the crummy Joey Harrington? And how mind-numbing will it be for Vick’s teammates to be constantly peppered with questions about him? If not for owner Arthur Blank’s checkbook, rookie coach Bobby Petrino might wish he had stayed at Louisville.

5) Are the 49ers back?

On one hand it sounds silly talking up a team that in 2006 ranked 24th in scoring offense and dead last in scoring defense. Then again, there’s an awful lot to like about the Niners, even with offensive coordinator Norv Turner moving on to the Chargers. Turner’s departure isn’t great news for QB Alex Smith’s development, but the Utah product made great strides in his second year (16 TDs, 16 INTs) and new OC Jim Hostler can always tell him to hand off to Frank Gore, who rushed for a franchise-record 1,695 yards last year. Convincing NFC West foe Seattle to trade them WR Darrell Jackson (63 catches, 956 yards, 10 TDs) was quite a coup, and rookie Joe Staley could be a Week 1 starter at right tackle.

Defensively, there’s much work to be done. CB Nate Clements probably wasn’t worth $80 million over eight years, but he’s very good and should team with fellow free agent S Michael Lewis to upgrade a shabby secondary. Rookie LB Patrick Willis and former Ravens backup NT Aubrayo Franklin also should come in handy. Now if they could just get former Patriots OLB Tully Banta-Cain to stop eating – he has ballooned up to 280 pounds.

6) Can Eli Manning close the deal?

Big brother Peyton answered his critics with a Super Bowl ring. Now it’s time for Eli to show he can figure out the second half of the season. Over the first eight games last year, Manning threw 15 TDs and nine INTs and the Giants were 6-2. Over the final eight games he had nine TDs and as many picks and the Giants were 2-6. The splits were eerily similar in 2005: Games 1-8 – 14 TDs/5 INTs; Games 9-16 – 10 TDs/12 INTs. Clearly, there’s a pattern there that needs to be fixed.

Manning recently took a subtle shot at retired RB Tiki Barber. Some interpreted that as the QB flexing his atrophied leadership muscles. He’ll certainly need to take charge more with Barber (1,662 rushing yards and 58 catches last year) grinning at him from the TV booth. Brandon Jacobs (all 6-4, 264 pounds of him) and Reuben Droughns will try to pick up the backfield slack. DE Michael Strahan’s rumored holdout could add more stress for hot-seat coach Tom Coughlin.

7) Whatever happened to Jon Gruden and John Fox?

Remember when these guys were at the top of their profession? Not anymore. Gruden’s Bucs are 27-37 since winning Super Bowl XXXVII, and his reputation as an offensive mastermind has taken a hit – Tampa Bay finished 31st in scoring last year while hitting rock bottom at 4-12. Meanwhile, Fox’s Panthers have missed the playoffs twice in three seasons since capturing the NFC crown in 2003. Carolina has offensive woes, too, which is why coordinator Dan Henning got the boot in favor of ex-Patriots assistant Jeff Davidson.

Both Gruden and Fox could be coaching for their jobs this year, which explains why Gruden has gone QB crazy, trading for Jake Plummer (who retired on him), signing Jeff Garcia and kicking the tires on Daunte Culpepper. It would help if RB Cadillac Williams and WR Michael Clayton would stop regressing. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme is probably safe – although ex-Texan David Carr is now on board. The main issue is the sagging running game, although Fox hopes a new zone-blocking scheme can free up DeShaun Foster and/or DeAngelo Williams.

8) Will these legends fall?

It would be nice if Packers QB Brett Favre and Redskins coach Joe Gibbs could go out in a blaze of John Elway-esque glory. Sadly, it looks like it’s going in the other direction – ending not with a bang but a whimper. Favre is six TD passes shy of Dan Marino’s all-time record (420), so, barring injury, he’ll add that record to his resume this season. But he turns 38 in October, he’s coming off his two worst seasons since 1993, and Green Bay GM Ted Thompson’s patient approach means precious little skill-position help this season. The Packers couldn’t land WR Randy Moss and also supposedly balked at the Chiefs’ asking price for disgruntled RB Larry Johnson.

As for Gibbs, who turns 67 in November, Act II of his great career so far has produced a 21-27 record and one playoff victory. Last year’s Redskins team forced only 12 turnovers, the fewest ever, and allowed opposing QBs to strafe them for an incredible 30 touchdown passes against six INTs. New MLB London Fletcher-Baker and first-round S LaRon Landry will help, but Gibbs is breaking in an untested QB in Jason Campbell, which means the playoffs are a long shot.

9) What’s Donovan McNabb’s beef?

Pennsylvania Gov. (and Eagles fanatic) Ed Rendell called the team’s decision to use its first draft pick (No. 36 overall) on Houston QB Kevin Kolb “stunning,” saying the move, “boggles the entire mind.” It seemed to catch McNabb off guard, too. McNabb tore his ACL in Week 11 last year and watched Garcia ride in to the rescue and lead Philly to the playoffs. Garcia’s in Tampa now, but the Kolb pick is evidence that the Eagles have some long-term questions about McNabb, who has suffered season-ending injuries in three of the last five years.

There appears to be real tension between McNabb and coach Andy Reid, whose offseason was interrupted by his sons’ drug problems. McNabb, who turns 31 in November, was having quite a 2006 before he got hurt (18 TDs, 6 INTs, a 95.5 passer rating), so clearly he hasn’t lost anything off his fastball. But he did lose WR Donte’ Stallworth to the Patriots, and some believe free agent WR Kevin Curtis, a No. 3 guy in St. Louis, will be exposed as a starter.

10) Is there hope for the Cardinals?

Look, we bought into the Arizona hype last season and got burned, so we’re not asking much from the Cards this time. Just a pulse. Until further notice, the Seahawks – who swear they will get the ball more to former Patriots WR Deion Branch this season – are the team to beat in the West. But nobody in that division plays any defense, and with new offensive-minded coach Ken Whisenhunt inheriting QB Matt Leinart, WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, and RB Edgerrin James, you’d think the Cards at least will score some points.

New OL coach Russ Grimm has the daunting task of rebuilding a chronically lousy unit whose signature effort last year came in the Monday nighter against the Bears when James ran 36 times for 55 yards. First-round rookie OT Levi Brown is the new anchor up front, while Marshfield’s own Sean Morey migrated from Pittsburgh to help shore up the special teams. FYI – the Cardinals have had one winning season since 1985 and are on their seventh head coach since moving out of St. Louis in 1988.

Eric McHugh of The Patriot Ledger (Quincy, Mass.) may be reached at emchugh@ledger.com.