We’ve got some high winds in a bunch of games this week, but here’s something to think about. What would you regret more; Playing your stud who has a bad game, or not playing your stud who has a great game? Don’t get too cute this weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM ET
FIRSTENERGY STADIUM
CLEVELAND, OHIO

Fantasy Impact: I hate to say it, but I think the hype for the weather in this game is out of hand. DeShone Kizer and Blake Bortles are like Band-Aids over a compound fracture. Both of these teams were going to run-run-run regardless of the weather. That’s it. I get that QBs have shredded Cleveland, but Bortles should never be a thing especially with a depleted WR corps. This game will look ugly because of the matchup-not the wind or a little bit of wintery weather.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

1:00 PM ET
LAMBEAU FIELD
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN

Temp: 30°
Precipitation: None
Wind:15 mph
Wind Gusts: 20 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

1:00 PM ET
METLIFE STADIUM
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY

Temp: 52°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 20 mph
Wind Gusts: 32 mph

Fantasy Impact: This takes us to my a bold prediction, which is Travis Kelce fails to score a TD and fails to eclipse 100 yards.

Normally this wouldn’t be bold, but we’d have to look way back to 2016 to find a game where a TE failed to get 100 yards or a TD against the NYG. The rationale is along the roulette variety where an even number has hit 11 straight times so an odd number must be next, but we already know the NYG have been hit with misfortune including Sterling Shepard, who is suffering from some sort of sickness. The Giants are thus left with Eli Manning, Evan Engram, and a lackluster RB corps to contend against a hot KC team coming off a bye.

I just don’t think Alex Smith will have to do much against a Giants defense that seems totally uncommitted to Ben McAdoo and an offense that has been crushed by injuries. Fire up Kareem Hunt, but the rest of the KC offense probably isn’t as chalky as people are assuming in DFS including Kelce.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

1:00 PM ET
SOLDIER FIELD
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS

Temp: 32°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 20 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM ET
HARD ROCK STADIUM
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA

Temp: 82°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 9 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers

4:05 PM ET
STUBHUB CENTER
CARSON, CALIFORNIA

Temp: 73°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 10 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

New England Patriots vs Oakland Raiders

4:25 PM ET
ESTADIO AZTECA
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO

Temp: 65°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 10 mph

Fantasy Impact: The weather will be fine for this game, but elevation will likely be the dominant environmental factor. Estadio Azteca is 7,200 feet above sea level. For reference, Sports Authority Field at Mile High sits at 5,280 feet above sea level.

The truth is, no one really knows how the elevation will effect play on the field. There’s simply not a big enough sample size to draw any significant conclusions. My hunch is, New England rotates players as much as possible. This means literally any active RB and WR is flex-worthy, but they’re all risky. Don’t get cute and bench a stud, but what should have been a dream matchup against Oakland has become a crapshoot due to the elevation. I still love Tom Brady against a weak Oakland secondary, but forecasting Belichick’s game plan for RBs/TEs/WRs with the elevation is voodoo-witchcraft at this point.

Oakland is slightly easier to predict. Like it or not, Marshawn Lynch just isn’t a difference-maker anymore which makes DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard very risky, but flex-worthy in spots where fantasy teams need a haymaker. Amari Cooper has been a non-factor with the exception of one amazing game against KC. I like Michael Crabtree and Jared Cook in a game against a New England secondary that has been shredded in spots, but who knows how that elevation will affect them.

All-in-all I can’t see how Tom Brady and Jared Cook have poor games, but everyone else is risky.