Monday, September 17, 2007

According to Fridays Nuclear Market Review (NMR), two off-market transactions were reported this past week for more than 500 thousand pounds U3O8 equivalent. NMR editor Treva Klingbiel wrote, Both transactions were in negotiations prior to the steep price rise last week and reflect prices below the currently published levels. NMR did not provide exact details of the sales price(s). The weekly spot uranium price indicator remained unchanged at US$113/pound.

No transactions took place in the long-term market. No new demand emerged. Uranium transaction volume for 2007 year-to-date remains the third lowest for the past decade. Only transaction volumes in 1997 and 2001 were lower at this point of the annual cycle.

NMR also reported on the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle conference which took place this past week in Budapest, Hungary. MITs Center for International Studies senior researcher Thomas Neff discussed whether it was still possible to substitute enrichment for uranium. Neff concluded, Given existing prices there is not sufficient enrichment capacity currently available for utilities to truly optimize the tradeoff between enrichment and uranium. In recent presentations in Geneva and Zurich, Neff expressed concern about the uranium mining and enrichment industries providing sufficient nuclear fuel to utilities to meet the demands of the ongoing nuclear renaissance.

Others expressed similar concerns. Synatoms Fuel Supply manager Gerard Pauluis told conference attendees, As the market matures, we will experience uncontrollable price spikes. Urenco senior executive Maurice Lenders told the conference, Suppliers and customers must be open about what they have and what they need so that supply will be available to meet demand. Urenco supplies enriched uranium to the market. The European consortium is currently constructing the first new U.S. enrichment facility in New Mexico.

Uranium Mining Stocks Analysis

Matthew Smith of TheInvestar news service reported, I think that a correction may be underway in the uranium sector right now as the index tried and failed two times to break through the 325 level and hold. Smith explained, A correction is due, and it seems that many of the stocks with Australian exposure may at this time be overbought on the speculation of the vote on the countrys Three Mines Policy.

We asked about Peter Farmers comments on the day before the company announced Denison Mines would be trading on the American Stock Exchange. Smith speculated, I believe they indicate he is simply trying to talk down prices. Smith pointed out the Denison chief executive was referring to properties in the early development stage.

Smith added that oil executives have been making these statements since the uranium price was in the $15/pound range all the way up. Earlier this week, Exelon Corps Jim Malone had voiced similar concerns the uranium price was unsustainable in a guest commentary for Fuel Cycle Week magazine. Malone also wondered in his editorial whether speculators were intentionally driving the uranium price higher to bolster the value of uranium mining stocks. Both appear to question the speculative value of the hundreds of uranium juniors which have jumped on the bandwagon over the past year. These sentiments agree with the conclusion of Yellowcake Mining director Dr. Robert Rich we found in a previously published interview.

Smith explained, It is simply the conservative nature of the executives not to let expectations get out of hand. These are sentiments expressed over the past few months by Uranium Ones Neal Froneman and Paladin Resources John Borshoff. As a market watcher, but not a registered investment advisor, Smith counseled, When markets begin to look as though they may be overbought, it is best to go to those companies with good valuations.

COPYRIGHT 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Julie Ickes and James Finch co-authored this article. James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. His focus on the uranium mining and nuclear fuel sector resulted in the widely popular Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market, which is now available on http://www.stockinterview.com and on http://www.amazon.com

Although manganese is the fourth most heavily consumed metal behind iron, aluminum and copper, most investors have failed to observe the dramatic bull market in manganese which began unfolding this past spring.

About 34 million tons of manganese ore were mined in 2006.

Manganese (Mn) is a key component in steel and iron production, which accounts for up to 90 percent of the metals current consumption. But, the grey-white metal also plays an important role in low-cost stainless steel formulations and aluminum alloys. For example, manganese steels contain up to 14 percent Mn.

In 2006, the global unit consumption of manganese ferroalloys was approximately 10 kilograms alloy per metric ton of steel produced.

In specialty alloys, where nickel is replaced in part or entirely by manganese, the Mn content can run as high as 16 percent. Hadfield Steel contains 13 percent or more manganese. This brand of steel requires toughness and wear-resistance for applications in gyratory crushers, jaw crusher plates, rail steel and cutting edges for earth-moving equipment.

Earlier this year, Allegheny Ludlum explained high prices had forced the specialty steelmaker to replace nickel with manganese in some of its products. This spring, Finnish stainless steel manufacturer Outokumpu launched a duplex stainless product, LDX 2101, as a nickel-free stainless. The product utilizes a greater percentage of manganese instead of nickel.

Where applications permit, the stainless steel market is hoping to move away from austenitics to duplex, ferritic and other grades in order to rely less upon nickel. One report suggested chrome-manganese production could jump by 50 percent within two years. Consequently, the nickel-chrome grades could lose 20 percent of their stainless steel market share.

Why Manganese?

Aside from a small circle of metallurgists, chemists and miners, manganese is not a well-known element. Appearance-wise, it resembles iron.

By virtue of its properties sulfur-fixing, deoxidizing and alloying, manganese is essential to iron and steel production. If you dropped a crescent wrench on a cement floor, it would shatter into pieces if the wrench were made without manganese. It is the glue that binds, hardens and prevents iron and steel products from being too brittle.

Some manganese compounds have been added to gasoline to boost octane rating and reduce engine knocking. In organic chemistry, manganese dioxide is used as a reagent for the oxidation of benzylic alcohols. Manganese has a vast array of industrial uses rust and corrosion prevention on steel, paint pigments, dry cell and alkaline batteries, animal feed, glass production, fertilizers and many medical and health applications.

China will depend upon the manganese in railroad steel rails as the country dramatically expands its rail system over the next decade.

The automotive industry will depend upon manganese for the next generation of hybrid electric automobiles and fuel cells. Manganese can not only reduce costs in car body components offering less weight in auto frames, but it can also add greater structural strength. Toyota reportedly is close to perfecting a lithium-manganese ion battery for the Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV). The new generation cathodic materials include manganese and have more power capability, longer runtime and are more cost-effective because they are smaller and lighter.

Aluminum alloys utilize small quantities of manganese to enhance corrosion resistance. Many commercial copper alloys contain up to two percent manganese. And uranium ore is processed with manganese as an oxidizing agent to produce yellowcake for use in nuclear reactors.

New applications for manganese are being researched. Recently, at Kyoto University in Japan, researchers have developed a new process designed to reproduce the photosynthesis process. By using manganese dioxide, it may be possible to absorb a large quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which contribute to global warming.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Manganese has no satisfactory substitute in its major applications.

On the Manganese Production Front

Over 80 percent of the known world manganese resources are found in South Africa and the Ukraine. Other major manganese deposits are found in China, Australia, Brazil, Gabon, India and Mexico. In recent years, up to 60 percent of world manganese ferro-alloy production comes from South Africa, China and the Ukraine.

The United States imports more than 50 percent of its manganese from South Africa and Gabon.

Fewer countries now produce manganese and ferro-manganese than in the previous decade. Major producing countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom ceased production in the early 1990s. Japan and Germany curtailed their output during an era of cheap manganese when the metal sold for pennies per pound.

By 2001, the manganese ferro-alloys industry estimated it had a 40-percent overcapacity much of this was found in China and the CIS. China closed many of its unprofitable manganese operations; fewer than 10 out of 800 were believed to be profitable.

Presently, no new manganese mines appear on the near-term horizon.

As has been found with other metals predominantly uranium and molybdenum, a drought over more than one or two decades caused prices to dramatically rise in recent years. Manganeses price rise is the same condition found in other mineral spaces - far too few new mines for far too many years.

But, manganese demand jumped by 14 percent.

According to the International Iron and Steel Institute, world crude steel production of the 67 reporting countries increased by 10.2 percent of 2007 compared to the comparable period a year earlier.

In the report for 2007, the International Manganese Institute announced, Manganese demand prospects have never been so good. Key points included:

Manganese intensive steel grades to grow faster than average

Specific manganese consumption growing again

Steel demand to exceed six percent per year for many years to come

Limited down risks for the next ten to fifteen years

Note: Manganese-intensive steels represent 13 percent of total stainless steel production, but consume 41 percent of the total amount of manganese consumed by the steel industry.

To meet the growing demand, BHP Billiton announced it had ramped up manganese production to a record 1.5 million tons. Consolidated Minerals Ltd of Australia has dramatically increased manganese production over the past two years. Other large manganese mines have also increased production.

U.S. Manganese

Because it is essential to steel production, the U.S. government considers manganese a strategic metal. According to Lisa Corathers, U.S. Geological Survey manganese commodity specialist, A continued supply of manganese materials is vital to any defense effort as well as to maintenance and growth of an industrial economy.

Concerned about adequate inventories, the U.S. government began stockpiling manganese after World War II. But, by 1965, the federal government began selling off manganese materials, which they believed were in excess of what was required. By 2003, the government had whittled down its stockpiles to less than two years of manganese consumption.

Corathers said, The United States has been reliant upon 100 percent of its manganese needs since 1985.

We talked with Larry Reaugh, chief executive of Rocher Deboule Minerals Corp which recently acquired the open pit-able Artillery Peak (Arizona) manganese resource. Unless we are mistaken, he is the only junior mining explorationist currently acquiring manganese resources in the United States and Canada.

Reaugh told us, I have been watching manganese intently for the past several months. The price has risen dramatically this year, bringing large low grade deposits into the realm of feasibility.

He pointed out, Manganese is one of the top four strategic metals in the United States, which has no domestic production, and which is also subject to imports from countries which for the most part have political instability. And this creates uncertainty for U.S. supply.

Although prices for nickel, cobalt, vanadium and molybdenum have respectively surged higher by seven-fold, four-fold, six-fold and six-fold, manganese has but doubled in price. The grey-white metal may have more room for growth in the years ahead.

COPYRIGHT 2007 by StockInterview.com

James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. He has contributed to the widely popular Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market, and Uranium Outlook 2007 - 2008. His recent work, Investing in Chinas Energy Crisis, is now available at http://bookstore.stockinterview.com/

Ken Reser is a research consultant who has covered the molybdenum sector for more than two years and recently began coverage on manganese. Contact: Email: ykgold@telus.net

The history of the American stock market had its beginnings in the late 1700s during the fledgling years of the country. In Philadelphia, founding citizens of this new world instituted a stock exchange wherein currency could be exchanged in order to support business and stimulate this new economy.

This initial exchange gave way to a group of merchants who banned together to form the New York Stock Exchange. This initial assembly of men met every day on Wall Street to trade their stocks and bonds an outdoor ritual that lasted through to the early 1900s, when commerce moved indoors. Today, investment on this scale has come full circle operating outside the bricks and mortar of traditional trading. Today's investors operate en masse through the Internet, buying and selling stocks online with the click of a mouse.

Buying and selling stocks online has become the new way of investing. In this chaotic world of long work hours combined with the juggling of frenzied family schedules, the computer has taken an ever-increasing role giving us a place to work, communicate, and be entertained any time of day from the comfort of our homes. The computer has also taken an ever-increasing role in investing, offering consumers the opportunity to trade online. Several reputable companies have pioneered the online investment arena where they have kept pace with the changing needs of todays modern investors.

In accessing stocks online, investors have been given access to a bevy of services previously only obtained through visiting brokers in the brick and mortar world of finance. Online investment through reputable brokerage companies requires investors to set up an account through the website. They can then access their financial portfolio at the touch of a mouse. Additionally, these companies will offer up-to-the-minute stock quotes, historical performance and forecasts for each stock, as well as in-depth information about each of the companies.

Investors report that the ability to trade stocks online offers many benefits not provided through traditional brokering. First and foremost, online investment offers lower brokerage fees than required through traditional brokerage houses. Through online trading, investors typically pay $10 and under per trade. Online trading also affords investors a level of independence and control not previously experienced through traditional trading. Investors can pick and choose stocks online that meet their own personal financial goals.

Using the tools provided through the brokerage websites, investors can research those companies and stock in which they are interested. Further, investors can access their portfolio to keep careful track of their financial status as they move towards the goals they have set out for themselves.

Part of what keeps the financial world moving at a pace that continues to stimulate economy and promote business is its ability to adjust to changing conditions in society. Online trading is simply a response to what is happening in the world of finance on a grander scale. The ability to buy and sell stocks online meets investors where they are in todays world and gives them the opportunity to take a greater role in their own financial future.

Now that many people around the world is thinking about joining the club of the forex traders, the thought of having an automatic system sending you the right signals to enter or exit the market are, Im sure, pervasive in many of those joining the ranks of aspiring traders.

In principle the concept of trading the forex by pushing buttons and having precise entry and exit signals seems a bit awkward. With a forex market having such a huge volume of transactions during most of the trading week and with the market quotes constantly oscillating it seems next to impossible to have such a simple approach to the trading of currencies.

Contrary to this conception; the other day, as I surfed the web I discovered a curious system called the lazy trading forex software, the title naturally catches your attention but it really catch my attention when I read the statement where the author mentions that he has historically won 76% of the time with his trades. Thats not a perfect record but its a very impressive one for any forex trader world wide.

As I read more information about this system I discovered one more thing that really excited me, as Im sure would excite many savvy webpreneurs with some flight hours on the web, the issue was related to the fact that you can use this software with the famous Betonmarkets site. Just thinking about beating Betonmarktes makes me salivate, again if you have been around for a while and trying to make money from the internet you will know the reason of my excitement. This is the first time I find a piece of software that has the ingredients that will help you to become profitable at this great site; a place that may become a very dangerous site if you dont know what you are doing.

Can you trade the Forex Markets just by pushing buttons? Maybe you can

Most forex traders tend to stick with the majors against the dollar when trading forex, but some of the lesser traded currencies can have as much if not bigger profit potential. Here we will look at two of them, in which a simple buy and hold strategy could make 100% or more per annum.

Two great currencies to trade are the Australian and Canadian Dollar Why?

Because their commodity producing nations and there currencies reflect this.

There are huge rises across the board as the new emerging economic giants of India and China expand at a rapid rate and need commodities to fule this growth.

Just using a buy and hold strategy in these currencies could yield triple digit gains per annum, with low leverage.

This is not a clever strategy, its common sense and suits the patient trader.

Lets look at why this strategy works:

The Canadian dollar has risen as a result of the higher oil prices and should continue to do so, as long as oil prices remain firm and they dont look like dropping much in the near future. Canada has the second largest known reserves of oil and only Saudi Arabia has more. Furthermore, Canada has been the largest supplier of oil to the U.S for the last 7 years, supplying more than even Saudi Arabia. In conclusion, strong oil prices and volatility in the Middle East strengthens the Canadian dollar against its southern neighbor.

Now lets look at Australia. The country is the third-largest producer of gold in the world today.

The Australian Currency is clearly affected by the fortunes of gold prices, therefore gold price increases nearly always strengthen the Australian dollar while decreases will weaken it - relative to most other currencies.

Understand this simple fact:

A forex investor needs to understand which nation's currencies are vulnerable to commodity price increases - in broad terms:

The US economy is highly sensitive to world commodity price rises in general and rises normally put pressure on the US dollar while the Australian and Canadian dollar streghten.

Will the gains continue?

If you look at the huge rises in the Australain and Canadian dollars in recent years, you will see how lucrative a buy and hold strategy can be.

Will commodity prices continue to strengthen?

We dont know, nothing in life is certain but the likelihood is yes, and buying the dips at key support and holding these currencies long term, looks a good way to make some triple digit gains - of course the key is to enter with the best risk reward and we will look at the techncial view in the next part of the article and how to enter these two great trading opportunities.