U. S. Flag Counter

International Flag Counter

Posts Tagged ‘poll result’

.. there are things that you can llok for in a poll to determine if it is indeed worthwhile ….

.. [-] sample size — the larger the sample , the better ..

.. [-] a tracking poll — not a bad idea . It is a poll that is done over several days . It is also done that way for a long period of time by the pollster , in order to ensure better comparison and reliability ..

.. [-] a poll with ” All Adults ” is no good . There is a significant chunk of adults that do not register to vote , much less actually vote itself . So ignore this stuff , it is worthless ..
e
.. [-] registered voters — a decent poll , but others are much better . Once people register to vote , there is a significant pocket of voters that do not bother to vote[ever] at all ..

.. [-] likely voters — these voters are the most likely to actually vote ..

.. [-] very likely voters — these voters are the very most likely of all voters to actually vote …

.. the only statewide office holder that has to sweat it out is state Treasurer Josh Mandel . Mandel is ahead only 8 points on DemoCrap nominee Connie Pillich . otherwise , the other statewide candidates are ahead by double digits …

.. that includes the state supreme court races . After Tuesday , the State Supreme Court should still be 5 conservatives , 1 RINO , and 1 loonie leftie DemoCrap …

— [update] — from the article –> the early vote downstate in greater Columbus [Franklin County & surrounding counties] is great news for the GOP … the numbers are the reverse of 2010 , and the GOP ground game is going great guns … not only can they get the total #s for early votes by county , they can also get the county vote by party for Dem , GOP , and other ….

.. Dan Sullivan is up 47% to 45% , a result that should give Mark Begich a good bit of heartburn . He is under the 50% mark , and he is BEHIND his challenger …

.. the upcoming polls should be interesting …. especially the partisan lean …

— [update] — Dan Sullivan has been doing beautifully on the campaign trail . His campaign message is fantastic , and he has had incumbent Mark Begich constantly on his heels . The polls finally show it … Sullivan leads Begich 48% to 42% …

.. even better , the tide seems to be turning in the Governor ‘ s race . Sam Brownback seems to finally be getting his act together . He has taken a small but decent lead , 48% to 44% , over DemoCrap Paul Davis .

.. in this one , Joni Ernst has built a nice and healthy lead . She leads DemoCrap opponent Bruce Braley 50% to 44% , with 6% undecided . She only trails by 6 pts among women , but she has built a commanding 17 point lead among men , 56% to 39% …

.. Scott Brown is now right on Jeanne Shaheen ‘ s heels . Worse for Shaheen , she is now under 50% , and she is thisclose to Brown …

.. this is a big surprise . Given previous poll results , I though that Shaheen was likely going to hold off Brown in this race . Maybe not …

.. I would think that WMUR [a big TV station in New Hampshire] would have double – checked the results on this one . I suspect that the Manchester Union – Leader and other media are going to run follow – up polls to see if this is an outlier …. or a trend …

.. the link has some pretty entertaining and hard – hitting ads that have been up in Boston [broadcasting into NH] and in the Granite State itself …. also , Brown has been barnstorming the state , holding town halls all over the place . Shaheen ? Not one …

.. also , Brown has been hammering away on immigration . If these polling results are confirmed , it will get a lot of people ‘ s attention . Especially in the Obama White House . His possible [[read : likely] Executive Amnesty may not be all that popular , especially with the flood of border kids this year , and possibly next …

.. now , GOP Senate candidate [congresscritter] Cory Gardiner is leading incumbent Mark Udall 44% to 42% , and former Congresscritter and businessman Bob Beauprez is now leading Hickenweenie by a point , 44% to 43% …. Yeow ! …

.. if an incumbent is below 50% , that means big trouble . Even if the seat is ” open , ” the incumbent party should be near or at or over 50% . If they are not , then that candidate is in deep doo – doo . The further below 50% they are , the more trouble it is . Also , if they are behind their opponent , it is as close to a ” Kiss of Death ” as one can get …