A Review of the Literature of the Process of Giving Warning with Discussion of Implications for Futurists.

Koster, Francis

The paper presents a review of literature on warnings of social crises and applies the literature to selected crises predicted in America's future. It is intended for use by futurists and policy makers as they devise ways to help society cope with crises. Warnings are interpreted as combining statement of a problem with proposal of a course of action to combat the problem. Three categories of crises are considered: (1) those having to do with shortages in basic supplies, such as food and fuel; (2) calamities and accidents; and (3) failure of society to provide basic services. The paper is presented in six chapters. Chapter I identifies variables which describe disasters, including frequency of occurrence, speed of onset, duration, and controllability. Chapter II analyzes warnings in response to alcohol and tobacco abuse, air raids, and floods. Also reviewed are instances of warning delay by public officials out of fear of causing a panic. Chapter III suggests strategies for effective warnings, based upon research by psychologist Irving Janis. Chapter IV presents a list of 42 deductions derived from recent warning literature and outlines two disaster scenarios. Chapter V forecasts crises likely to occur in America by the year 2000. The final chapter concludes that society's response to crises will improve significantly if policy makers establish a clear chain of command, agree on coping behavior, employ the media for educational purposes, and utilize forecasting information gathered by futurists. (Author/DB)