Tuesday's special congressional election in the Columbus region's 12th District may or may not amount to a referendum on Donald Trump. Still, if the Democratic candidate wins Tuesday, that'll amount to an earthquake in what, for much of Ohio's history, has been unshakable Republican bedrock.

The major-party candidates on Tuesday's 12th District congressional ballot are state Sen. Troy Balderson, a Zanesville Republican, and Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, a Columbus Democrat. The Green Party's candidate is Joe Manchik, of Reynoldsburg.

The 12th District's 17-year Republican incumbent, Pat Tiberi, of Delaware County's Genoa Township, resigned Jan. 15 to become president of the Ohio Business Roundtable. Before Tiberi was elected to the House, GOP Gov. John Kasich represented the 12th District from 1983 through 2000.

Given how many votes were cast districtwide in 2016's general election for the 12th District House seat, it appears Tuesday's contest may be decided in Delaware County (27.1 percent of 2016's vote); plus the portion of northern Franklin County in the 12th (32.4 percent of 2016's vote); and in Licking County (21.2 percent).

Franklin County has voted for Democrats for president since 1992 (Bill Clinton), although some neighborhoods, including some northern neighborhoods, vote Republican. As for Licking, it last voted for a Democrat for president in 1964 (when Lyndon Johnson swamped the GOP's Barry Goldwater).

Delaware County, though, last voted for a Democrat for president 102 years ago (in 1916, for Woodrow Wilson - another Democrat "who kept us out of war," then promptly got us into one).

And Delaware was one of just five Ohio counties (of 88) that the GOP's Goldwater carried in 1964. Ohio's other Goldwater counties: Allen (Lima); Fulton (Wauseon) ; Hancock (Findlay); and Union (Marysville).

In 1958, 16 Ohio counties supported that year's Right to Work (for Less) ballot issue; Delaware County was one. And in 1983, when the late Thomas A. Van Meter, the conservative Ashland Republican, promoted a ballot issue to roll back Democratic Gov. Richard F. Celeste's steep tax increases, voters in Delaware and nine other counties rallied to Van Meter's banner.

Based on per-capita personal income ($64,634), Delaware ranks No. 1 among Ohio's counties, the Development Services Agency reports. (Runner-up: Geauga, at $61,323).

Given Delaware County's relative affluence, the Trump-Ryan-McConnell tax cut (aka, their deficit-booster) may be a GOP plus Tuesday. Still, the president's self-damaging rhetoric, especially his offensive comments about women, can't be a plus for the GOP.

Turnout is the key to special elections. They draw fewer voters than general elections. But voters who do make the effort to vote in special elections tend to be highly motivated voters.

And President Trump is scheduled to speak today in Lewis Center, between Delaware and Columbus. His appearance could stoke turnout Tuesday.

Delaware County, like the rest of the Columbus region, is growing because of newcomers and business relocations. But amid the changes, there are traditions. Delaware has historic ties to Methodism, such as Ohio Wesleyan University and the Methodist Theological School in Ohio.

That cultural fact, plus Donald Trump's rhetoric, and congressional Republicans' survival-of-the-fittest policy toward the poor, call to mind John Wesley's "The Use of Money" sermon: "Having, First, gained all you can, and, Secondly saved all you can, Then give" - not grab - "all you can."

The Vatican announced last week that Pope Francis has decided the Catechism of the Catholic Church will now say this: "The Church teaches, in the light of the Gospel, that 'the death penalty is inadmissible because it is an attack on the inviolability and dignity of the person,' and she works with determination for its abolition worldwide."

Ohio, according to the Death Penalty Information Center, is among 31 states that has a death penalty; nineteen, including Michigan and West Virginia, don't.

Francis' decision underlines this: The death penalty is as much a right-to-life issue as abortion. It'll be interesting to see which right-to-life General Assembly members and candidates (some Catholic, some not) will heed Francis. If the General Assembly's majority, as it dreams up ways to limit women's access to abortion, really sees the right to life as a matter of principle, not politics, legislators would abolish Ohio's death penalty. Don't hold your breath.

Thomas Suddes, a member of the editorial board, writes from Athens.

To reach Thomas Suddes: tsuddes@cleveland.com, 216-999-4689

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