Iran to begin dismantling nuclear program next week?

posted at 6:31 pm on January 12, 2014 by Jazz Shaw

You can choose to believe it or not as you prefer, but it seems that Iran is claiming that they will begin unwinding some of their nuclear weapons program on January 20th. This from CNN.

Save the date: Iran has pledged to start eliminating some of its uranium stockpile on January 20, the White House said Sunday.

That gives an official start date for the six-month interim deal with Iran, which was first announced in November.

“As of that day, for the first time in almost a decade, Iran’s nuclear program will not be able to advance, and parts of it will be rolled back, while we start negotiating a comprehensive agreement to address the international community’s concerns about Iran’s program,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement Sunday.

As part of the agreement, Iran has agreed to start eliminating its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium, to dismantle some infrastructure that makes higher-level uranium enrichment possible, and not to start up additional centrifuges.

In exchange, some sanctions against Iran will be eased as part of “modest relief,” the White House said.

That “modest relief” is apparently in the form of $4.2B in frozen assets to be released in a series of payments stretching over six months. Is this worth believing on any level? Dr. James Joyner apparently suggests caution, but doesn’t see it as entirely without hope.

Now, it should go without saying, Iran’s pledging to do something and their doing it are not the same thing. Indeed, even Kerry, the architect of the deal, is highly wary and rightly so.

Caveats notwithstanding, however, this has to be viewed as a major diplomatic coup for Kerry and the Obama administration. Few of us thought Iran would voluntarily roll back its program. In my own case, it wasn’t a function of simply distrusting a ruthless regime that has from its outset viewed the United States as evil. Rather, it’s very much in the interest of both the Iranian state and the mullahs to acquire nuclear weapons to bolster their security and prestige and there didn’t appear to be anything the United States or the international community could offer by way of a carrot that would be more valuable. Sanctions relief, while obviously of great value to the people of Iran, certainly didn’t seem to be that highly prized by the regime.

This entire story puts the US in a rather odd position on the world stage. As Erika reported yesterday, Congress appears to be moving closer and closer to ignoring these negotiations entirely and introducing new sanctions on Iran, even as Kerry and Obama are dangling a carrot in front of Iran to gain concessions. If we are to assume that Iran’s entire motivation to even give the appearance of backing down on their nuclear ambitions is to get some of the sanctions removed, such an action would undoubtedly put the brakes on whatever dismantling they claim to be starting.

Is this a serious offer by Iran or just a chess move to put a halt to Congress moving against them? Taking Iran at their word is dubious at best, but it does highlight the fractured nature of the current US administration. Traditionally, the executive branch would take the lead on these sorts of maneuvers, but they’d have gotten some back room, tacit agreement from the legislative branch before doing it. This just seems to advertise to the world that Barack Obama is not in control of his own foreign policy.

Blowback

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Dr. James Joyner? Really Jazz? OTB has become a very lefty site (with the exception of uber libertarian Doug Mataconis) and Joyner does not hold much credibility with me.

This is just more Iranian 3 card monty. They are not going to stop their nuclear program until some makes them do it or they bring about their Shiite dream of ending the world by whatever means possible and bring back the 12th imam. These are not rational people like the Russians were in the Cold War. They desire death, and death to all who resist bringing back the “prophet”. Destruction of the “Zionist entity” is their way to start this war to end all wars and bring back the Mahdi.

People can say what they want about the Iranian mullahs, but this is their ambition. Period.

Long game. The start of the process, from ore to low percentages, is orders of magnitude more time consuming than going from moderate percentages to high percentages. Taking the time now to build up stockpiles of enriched (but not too enriched) uranium means later on they can produce the nastier stuff much more quickly.

“[Iran’s] commitment is to continue their current enrichment R&D practices,” a senior official told journalists in a phone conference on Sunday, detailing the agreement. “That’s been documented. That’s what they’ll continue to do.”

This just seems to advertise to the world that Barack Obama is not in control of his own foreign policy.

Well duh!

What I’m interested in is what it will take to advertise to the morons who still support this lazy shiftless coward that he is not in control of his own foreign policy. That all the shucking and jiving is nothing more than entertinment to hide the fact that the stupid community organizer doesn’t know the first thing about being a leader.

As part of the agreement, Iran has agreed to start eliminating its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium, to dismantle some infrastructure that makes higher-level uranium enrichment possible, and not to start up additional centrifuges.

Representatives from the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency will also monitor Iran’s nuclear facilities and make sure the country is taking the required steps as part of the deal.

Catherine E. Shoichet (CNN) on January 12, 2014

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Oh, my gracious … I should have read have read down further, before making that first “snarky” comment. Silly me.
If the U.N. “nuclear watchdog agency” is going to be allowed to monitor all of this, no problem.
I mean, what could go wrong ? As long as the U.N. “nuclear watchdog agency” is on the job over there, we can all sleep better at night, with a greater sense of security.
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In exchange, some sanctions against Iran will be eased as part of what the White House calls “modest relief.”

Catherine E. Shoichet (CNN) on January 12, 2014

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Okay, that part will most certainly happen, so Cathy is not completely wrong.

As long as the islamic terrorist regime in Iran has the centrifuges then they have the capabilities of making the nuclear weapons… Anything else such as remove of nuclear stockpiles is totally meaningless…

“We will know soon enough if Iran is committed to a diplomatic resolution of its nuclear program. If it is not, new sanctions will move with lightning speed out of the Congress and with my full support.”

All Ed did was produce a story about a report from the Institute for Science and International Security, that claimed Iran is a month away from having a “thermo-nuke”.
Is there some reason that we should question the credibility of the Institute for Science and International Security ?
I can’t prove that Iran does have one, right now.
Can you prove that they don’t ?
listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 10:16 PM

Ed promotes whatever hate Iran stories he can find. It’s all a part of the propaganda. The truth doesn’t matter at all. People will tell you whatever lie they have to tell toon order to get their war. It’s all apart if the noble lie.

Ed promotes whatever hate Iran stories he can find. It’s all a part of the propaganda. The truth doesn’t matter at all. People will tell you whatever lie they have to tell toon order to get their war. It’s all apart if the noble lie.

antifederalist on January 13, 2014 at 5:00 AM

The islamic terrorist regime in Iran cannot be trusted at all on anything… They want to make nuclear weapons… As long as they have the centrifuges they will be capable of making the nuclear weapon… This deal does not take away their centrifuges and hence it is totally meaningless… The 7th century terrorist mullahs are the only winners in this deal…

The islamic terrorist regime in Iran cannot be trusted at all on anything… They want to make nuclear weapons… As long as they have the centrifuges they will be capable of making the nuclear weapon… This deal does not take away their centrifuges and hence it is totally meaningless… The 7th century terrorist mullahs are the only winners in this deal…
mnjg on January 13, 2014 at 8:20 AM

Nor can those who sold the US on Iraq’s WMDs and nuclear program should be trusted on anything.

If Iran wanted nuclear weapons, why don’t they have them already? Neocons have been crying wolf over Iran’s nukes for 20 years now. Iran has been on the Axis of Evil list for 12 years. If they are so committed to acquiring nukes and wiping Israel off the face of the map, what’s taking them so long to get a nuke? According to the latest National Intelligence Estimate, Iran hasn’t made a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon. Maybe you should start questioning what you have been told about Iran. Maybe you should begin to question the motives of those who have been manipulating you into supporting a war with Iran.

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Ed promotes whatever hate Iran stories he can find. It’s all a part of the propaganda. The truth doesn’t matter at all. People will tell you whatever lie they have to tell toon order to get their war. It’s all apart if the noble lie.

antifederalist on January 13, 2014 at 5:00 AM

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If there’s any credibility to the report by the Institute for Science and International Security, then Ed’s “ulterior motives” become irrelevant.

Can you discredit the neutrality of the Institute for Science and International Security ?
Can you explain why their report shouldn’t be taken at “face value” ?