Family First losing Senate control to Coalition

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The Government's grip on a historic Senate majority is
tightening, with National Party candidate Barnaby Joyce steaming
away in the count for Queensland's final Senate seat.

A steady flow of votes counted since election night has doubled
the Nationals' lead over Family First at the point in the
preference distribution where one or other candidate is
eliminated.

On election night, the Nationals led by roughly 2500 votes,
assuming all voters vote above the line. Their lead has now doubled
to almost 5000 votes, and Mr Joyce is odds-on to win.

His victory would give the Coalition 39 of the 76 seats in the
new Senate to take office next July, the first time in 24 years
that a government has controlled the upper house. With senators
elected for six-year terms, that control should last until at least
2011.

In the House of Representatives, Labor has regained a 45-vote
lead in Hindmarsh, the one seat still in doubt. The last 360 votes
will be counted today.

In Tasmania, Greens Senate candidate Christine Milne is odds-on
to take the final seat after clawing back more votes in her
struggle with Family First. The Greens have almost 40,000 votes and
Family First just 7300, but on paper, preferences would give it the
seat. But Tasmania has many independent minds, and 17 per cent of
voters have selected their own preferences. Ms Milne needs just 7
per cent of voters to give her their preference ahead of Family
First.

No other Senate seats are in doubt. The major parties will split
them three-all in NSW and South Australia. Family First will win
the final seat in Victoria, and the Greens will take it in WA. The
Coalition has won three seats in each state and Labor two.

This would see Labor again with 28 seats in the new Senate. The
Greens would move from two to four, while the Democrats shrink from
seven to four. One Nation and the independents will disappear,
leaving Family First's Steven Fielding alone in the corner
benches.