Big props to Drew Pasteur for having F50 already updated just after midnight.

Week 7 shook up the region and Garaway was by far the biggest winner, the pirates likely secured a spot in the dance. Springfield despite getting a huge win over western reserve is in now a worse spot than last week. Speaking of Reserve, they aren’t quite eliminated yet, but they have a pretty narrow path to get in even if they get a win over McDonald. We do still have a game on Saturday with Rootstown traveling to play a 5-1 Valley Christian team.

Steubenville CC’s projection surprised me and seems a bit high. Maybe the Out of state opponents are inflating it a bit?

Note: Sebring has been playing with 12-13 players and a week to week basis. They play McDonald this week and a cancellation would be a boost for the blue devils and put them in contention to host. It would also benefit Reserve and Springfield slightly.

It looks like McDonald’s best chance to host would be to run the table and hope Sebring forfeits next Friday. It’s a home game and homecoming for the Trojans so you have to take that into consideration.

Rootstown’s projected differential with McDonald (even with a loss to Mogadore) is growing each week. It was 0.5 after week 5, then 0.6, and now 1.0 after week 7. It doesn’t help that McDonald has only played teams that have beaten 1 team Division 5 or higher. Rootstown has played teams that have beaten 7 teams Division 5 or higher.

It looks like McDonald’s best chance to host would be to run the table and hope Sebring forfeits next Friday. It’s a home game and homecoming for the Trojans so you have to take that into consideration.

Rootstown’s projected differential with McDonald (even with a loss to Mogadore) is growing each week. It was 0.5 after week 5, then 0.6, and now 1.0 after week 7. It doesn’t help that McDonald has only played teams that have beaten 1 team Division 5 or higher. Rootstown has played teams that have beaten 7 teams Division 5 or higher.

Their realistic chance to pass a 9-1 Rootstown likely ended in week 6 when Brookfield lost to D4 Ashtabula Edgewood in a game they were seemingly heavy favorites. McDonald’s best realistic scenario (Columbiana winning out, champion and Brookfield beating Campbell) I have them getting to 19.2 so still pretty far off. If Sebring cancels that changes the math and they’d probably be around 20ish depending if Sebring played their other games. As of now I think they’ll need Rootstown to lose twice

Also all of this is moot anyway if Garaway beats IV next week as they’ll be the 3 seed

Unlike the past few weeks, week 8 looks to be pretty calm in the region with most playoff contenders facing weaker opponents. There is one huge matchup though in the games to watch:

Garaway at Indian Valley- Garaway pretty much got their ticket to the dance by beating previously undefeated Ridgewood last week, now they have to go on the road to play a very good IV squad. A Garaway win will vault them into the top 4 and hosting week 11.

Garfield at Mogadore and Rootstown at Crestwood- Both Moggy and Rootstown are solid favorites and should win convincingly, that said both PTC opponents are decent if breaks fall their way could have upset potential.

Their realistic chance to pass a 9-1 Rootstown likely ended in week 6 when Brookfield lost to D4 Ashtabula Edgewood in a game they were seemingly heavy favorites. McDonald’s best realistic scenario (Columbiana winning out, champion and Brookfield beating Campbell) I have them getting to 19.2 so still pretty far off. If Sebring cancels that changes the math and they’d probably be around 20ish depending if Sebring played their other games. As of now I think they’ll need Rootstown to lose twice

Also all of this is moot anyway if Garaway beats IV next week as they’ll be the 3 seed

It's also moot if Rootstown beats Mogadore. This is a toss up game imho. Drew Pasteur's site initially had Mogadore by 8 which peaked at about 14 when Mogadore beat Elyria Catholic. It's now down to 6. Calpreps has it as Rootstown by 3 at a neutral site.

It's also moot if Rootstown beats Mogadore. This is a toss up game imho. Drew Pasteur's site initially had Mogadore by 8 which peaked at about 14 when Mogadore beat Elyria Catholic. It's now down to 6. Calpreps has it as Rootstown by 3 at a neutral site.

Oh yeah that’s why I said a 9-1 Rootstown. Rootstown beats Moggy and the Rovers will be the 3, Moggy the 2 and Kirtland the 1. We could still get a Rootstown-McDonald week 1 game in that scenario if Garaway finishes 10-0 and would host Norwayne in the 4-5. I agree that it’s a complete toss-up between Rootstown and Moggy

Sooo many good teams in Region 21. If McDonald had 3 less boys they would be a lock for a home game and would probably be the favorite to win Region 25. Now were debating about whether they'd get a home game if they go undefeated.

Sooo many good teams in Region 21. If McDonald had 3 less boys they would be a lock for a home game and would probably be the favorite to win Region 25. Now were debating about whether they'd get a home game if they go undefeated.

Region 21 was stacked the past few years, then Garaway and Steubenville CC got moved over from 23 to make it even more ridiculous.

Yup they’ve been just above the cutoff the last few years, and this year particularly sucks given how R25 and 27 looks McDonald would probably be the favorite to make it to Canton. Instead it’ll take a heck of an effort to beat whomever they play to just make week 12. (Still gotta beat WR to even clinch)

A little bored on this Wednesday so figured to do scenarios and top games as we head into the last 3 weeks.

Right now there are 5 major games that will determine the playoff teams and seedings (upsets can and will do this as well):

-Garaway at Ridgewood week 8: Garaway is in even with a loss, but a win would get them the 3 or 4 seed.

-McDonald at Western Reserve week 9: McDonald needs a win to be in, WR has a slim shot of making it with a win

-Columbiana at Southern week 9: Lots of implications here, Southern is a win and in. But also Springfield, McDonald, and WR can get needed L2’s with a clipper win

-Fort Frye at SCC: SCC is on bubble of hosting with a win, a loss puts them on the bubble to make it

-Rootstown at Mogadore: Big seeding implications as to who hosts.

Scenarios for the 11 playoff teams:
The top 2 seeds are pretty locked in
Mogadore: Inside track to the 1 seed. A loss to Rootstown week 10 would slide them to a 2.
Kirtland: 2 seed unless Rootstown wins, then 1 seed.

Rootstown: Rovers can lock into the 3 seed by beating Mogadore. If they lose there they can be anywhere from 4-6 seed, depending if Garaway and/or SCC win out.

Norwayne: Bobcats heavy favorite to win out and will be a 3-5 seed, depending if Rootstown/Garaway win out

Garaway: The Pirates with a win over IV will be a 3-5 seed. A Moggy win over Rootstown would get them a top 4. The edge between them and Norwayne looks to be razor thin in this scenario and it’ll come down to L2 help. A Pirates loss and they could vary between the 5-8 seeds depending how McDonald/SCC/Southern finish.

Southern: Indians need to win out. If they do, they’ll be looking at a 5-7 seed depending on how Garaway/SCC finish.

Steubenville Catholic Central: If the Crusaders win out, they’ll be looking at a 4-6 seed, depending on how Rootstown/Garaway finish their seasons. A loss in week 10 and they’ll be on the bubble of the playoffs. With a loss the outcome of the Southern/Columbiana game may determine if they or Springfield get in

McDonald: Devils need to win out. At 10-0, their seed will be 5-8 depending on if Southern/Garaway/SCC win out.

Columbia Station: Raiders took a big hit losing to Clearview last week. They need to win out first and foremost. They’ll also be needing at least one of Southern or SCC to lose to get in. If both lose they should get the 7

Springfield: Tigers season almost completely comes down to the outcome of Southern-Columbiana and McDonald/WR games (they need Columbiana and WR to win). They need at least 1 to go their way, if both do they could climb to possibly the 6, but likely 7.

Western Reserve: F50 says they have a 30% chance by winning out but I just don’t see it being that high. They certainly need Columbiana to beat Southern. After that they need some kind of upset to happen, id say Fairview over Columbia would be the one to circle and most likely to happen.

Kingpin - Since you seem to be our local guru on this Harbin system, what has to happen for Columbiana to squeeze in? Obviously, with less than a 2% chance, the Clippers need a lot to happen, I just don't know exactly how to determine what chain of events must occur.

Kingpin - Since you seem to be our local guru on this Harbin system, what has to happen for Columbiana to squeeze in? Obviously, with less than a 2% chance, the Clippers need a lot to happen, I just don't know exactly how to determine what chain of events must occur.

Lots of upsets. Right now I have a 7-3 Columbiana finishing 11th in the harbins. One of the more likely upsets I can see them needing is Fairview over Columbia Station, that would get them to 10. After that you are needing big upsets and 2 of the 4 to happen:
Garaway losing to Tusky Valley week 10 (also need them to lose this week to IV)
Wellsville or Leetonia beating Southern
Rootstown losing out
SCC losing 2 out of 3

Lots of upsets. Right now I have a 7-3 Columbiana finishing 11th in the harbins. One of the more likely upsets I can see them needing is Fairview over Columbia Station, that would get them to 10. After that you are needing big upsets and 2 of the 4 to happen:
Garaway losing to Tusky Valley week 10 (also need them to lose this week to IV)
Wellsville or Leetonia beating Southern
Rootstown losing out
SCC losing 2 out of 3

Wow. A lot needs to happen for Columbiana to qualify. I expected them to qualify at the beginning of the season but that 1st 3 weeks was brutal.
Unfortunately, they’ll probably be all but mathematically eliminated after this week’s games.

Wow. A lot needs to happen for Columbiana to qualify. I expected them to qualify at the beginning of the season but that 1st 3 weeks was brutal.
Unfortunately, they’ll probably be all but mathematically eliminated after this week’s games.

Seems to be the case. Thanks, Kingpin! Good luck to your Blue Devils. If only the Clippers could've pulled that one out again this year. Maybe next year, they seem to have a lot returning.

Wow. A lot needs to happen for Columbiana to qualify. I expected them to qualify at the beginning of the season but that 1st 3 weeks was brutal.
Unfortunately, they’ll probably be all but mathematically eliminated after this week’s games.

Yeah Columbiana needed to snag one of those OOC games. They’ll actually have a higher average than they did last year when they qualified if they win out, and they’d be in line for a 6-7 seed in the other D6 regions.

Garaway fell to Indian Valley tonight in the big game. Pirates still should solidly be in but traveling week 11. Everything else held to form with no upsets so shouldn’t be much change. SCC plays tomorrow against a Canadian team

Props again to Joe and Drew getting their sites updated by around midnight:

Projections heading into week 9. There was some small (but big) changes. The first being SCC’s projection at 7-3 went down. Also looks like McDonald should stay in front of Southern even if the Indians beat Columbiana, so extremely likely McDonald will play either Rootstown or Norwayne week 11 if they beat WR next week.

SCC won this afternoon 28-14 so not much should change if anything at all.

Week 9 has some critical matchups as the playoff picture takes its final form. Right now we have 5 schools that are either locked in or just need to avoid big upsets: Mogadore, Kirtland, Norwayne, Rootstown, and Garaway.

McDonald at Western Reserve: Loser is out. A McDonald win and the Devils will be looking at very likely the 5 seed, but if SCC upsets Fort Frye they will be 6, possibly 7th. WR even with a win needs a lot of help. A WR win would be a big boost for Springfield.

Columbiana at Southern: Indians are in a similar position as McDonald, a win and they’re in and a loss likely out (though they could sneak in if both lose). A Columbiana win would be a huge boost for Springfield on the bubble and guarantee a 10-0 McDonald a top 6 seed.

Fairview at Columbia: Fairview might only be 3-5, but their losses were all close losses to really good teams and they beat Columbia last season. A Raiders win puts them in a great shot to get to week 11. A loss opens the door up potentially for a 9-1 WR or 8-2 Southern.

I'm still shaking my head at how tough this region is. McDonald is 8-0 and drops to 10th in the Region.
It looks like the battle for 8th is going to be very close. Springfield and Steubenville CC could be within a few tenths of a point of each other. It's ironic that after 10 weeks that last playoff spot could come down to games played in Canada and West Virginia.

I'm still shaking my head at how tough this region is. McDonald is 8-0 and drops to 10th in the Region.
It looks like the battle for 8th is going to be very close. Springfield and Steubenville CC could be within a few tenths of a point of each other. It's ironic that after 10 weeks that last playoff spot could come down to games played in Canada and West Virginia.

They’re 10th now but I suspect they’ll end up 5th If unbeaten. I really do not see SCC beating Fort Frye and that result would also keep them ahead of Southern even if the Indians beat Columbiana. The battle for 8th is anyone’s guess at this point, it’ll all depend on L2’s. I think Springfield is a much stronger team than SCC so I’m hoping they get in and could give Mogadore a tough battle week 11