Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.

Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

LisaTropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropicsMost of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:I still think the storm behind developing Nicole will be the bigger story in a week, but we will see. Florida needs to start paying attention.

Speaking of Florida, to those that follow hockey, I was in Boston last night at the Bruins pre-season game and they were playing the Florida Panthers, they showed a ton of energy and desire to play. The Panthers have had terrible teams past few years, but looks like the playoff drought may come to an end this year. Good luck this season, and Good luck to the Miami Dolphins. Beat those jets, I am a die hard Giants fan so I want to see them get crushed down there in Opa Locka!

die hard hocky fan and ex player (not pro)...pre-season means absolutely nothing. it nothing but a mere evaluation of the players, their talents and skills. The panthers still lack what is most needed to win. the only component that currently have is the net minder, and with their lack of consistent ability he gets flat worn out by the last quarter of the season. They have no veteran leadership, not top-skilled players, no playmakers, insufficient coach and no chemistry.

We'll probably tag Invest 96L in a time frame of tonight into the morning. Matthew is dissipating and should lean more towards the low developing north of Honduras. I have to go to work now, I'll be back tonight.

Hi Reed. What do you think of his soupy mix in the Caribbean? I know Mathew's remains will flow northward just as you've stated before.

We'll probably tag Invest 96L in a time frame of tonight into the morning. Matthew is dissipating and should lean more towards the low developing north of Honduras. I have to go to work now, I'll be back tonight.

I'm starting to think that due to the broadness of this low pressure area in the Caribbean that it may not have the potential to spin up in to anything very strong, but may instead just form a weak, broad low and move up in to Florida, giving us some pretty heavy rain in to this upcoming week and the next with some gusty winds. The Miami NWS Office seems to be thinking this as well, in their forecast discussion

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:ASCAT is likely to catch the entire western Caribbean...or at least the disturbance that we're monitoring. That should give us a good clue as to what is going on at the surface within this large monsoonal gyre.

When you say there is a wind shift do you mean winds coming out from a different direction ? If that is how it is then the buoy in the western Caribbean the winds have gone from e,ese,s and now ssw.

Read the earlier discussion on the long range models and would agree not to put too much faith in them. This may be an isolated case, but this GFS from about 8 days ago is pretty close to what is currently there. This would be valid at 8PM tonight.

The center seems to be presenting itself north of Honduras. The outflow continues to improve as the 200 mb high becomes established..Our system could intensify faster then forecasted , depending of course on the strength and configuration of that high pressure area. I am surprised how quickly all of this is happening.

Back for a little bit, got work soon. Darn, I don't like to miss church. Anyways, we should see 96L by tonight or tomorrow morning. A track north into the Eastern Gulf sounds about right, all depends on the timing. I believe we could see a few named storms the next two weeks. The pattern is right, things are looking favorable with all the heat focused in the Western Caribbean, not ruling out one more major for the season.

The National Weather Service's 7 day forcast for NE FL today mentions the "potential for heavy rainfall Thurs. into Fri."

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREAEARLY MONDAY FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. PERIODS OFHEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY...AND A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERESTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...BUT A FEW ROTATING CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSSSOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH FLORIDA.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY WHICHWILL FOCUS HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTOWEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OVER THE AREA AS LOWPRESSURE NEARS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FORHEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:I still think the storm behind developing Nicole will be the bigger story in a week, but we will see. Florida needs to start paying attention.

Speaking of Florida, to those that follow hockey, I was in Boston last night at the Bruins pre-season game and they were playing the Florida Panthers, they showed a ton of energy and desire to play. The Panthers have had terrible teams past few years, but looks like the playoff drought may come to an end this year. Good luck this season, and Good luck to the Miami Dolphins. Beat those jets, I am a die hard Giants fan so I want to see them get crushed down there in Opa Locka!

ASCAT is likely to catch the entire western Caribbean...or at least the disturbance that we're monitoring. That should give us a good clue as to what is going on at the surface within this large monsoonal gyre.

LISA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND NOW CONSISTSPRIMARILY OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN 1104 UTC ASCATOVERPASS CAPTURED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWEDA SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA ANDSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STRONGSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 25 C...ANDA STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANTCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA...THEREFORE...DEGENERATION TO AREMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT.LISA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVINGNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS STEEREDBETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THECYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ISAGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODELCONSENSUS.