Monday, May 05, 2014

Unsettled week ahead..

The weather this week will become increasingly unsettled as a series of disturbances track across southern Manitoba. The first system will be spreading an area of rain or showers into southern Manitoba Tuesday, first across western Manitoba reaching Winnipeg and the Red River valley by midday or afternoon. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy across Winnipeg/RRV with about 5-10 mm possible through Tuesday night.. although heavier amounts of 15-25 mm are expected over parts of western Manitoba. Another disturbance is expected to bring a second round of showers across southern Manitoba later Wednesday into Wednesday night, with another 5-15 mm possible. Drier weather is expected Friday and Saturday, with near normal temperatures in the mid to upper teens possible. Unfortunately, it looks like another system will bring in wet weather for Mother's Day Sunday. All in all, a somewhat unsettled week ahead.. with temperatures trending towards normal by late week.

There's a chance we able to sneak a 20C here Friday or Saturday if we can get enough sun. If we don't do it, then likely not another shot until after mid May, which puts us into top 10 status. Tough to accept, especially considering we hit 26C a year ago today, meaning an even slower start to warm weather than last year.

Brett Anderson at Accuweather has released the summer forecast and it's not looking good for central Canada, with lots of cold air intrusions in June and July. It's uncanny how much this resembles 2009. El Nino is supposed to form this fall, as it did in the winter of 2009-2010. This might be another year where Vancouver Island hits 40 C.

Not terribly surprised with Accuweather's take on our summer. That warm water off the coast of BC keeps them under a ridge and us under a persistent trough. Has been that way since late last year with no change. With lack of heat and humidity, I expect severe weather outbreaks to be minimal. Oh well, the past 2 summers, even though last year was a little late in arriving, were decent summers for warmth. I guess I can accept a cooler summer this year. Its just too bad given the fall and winter we were dealt. There may even be a possibility we break a record for most consecutive months below normal, but thats a ways off.

Looks like another blast of cold air coming in next week after a couple nice near normal days Friday and Saturday, when temperatures may approach the 20C mark Saturday. It's all downhill after that with some rain moving in for Sunday, and then well below normal temps Monday through Thursday. Forget about those mid teen highs forecast Monday and Tuesday.. will be more like single digit highs with even some flurries possible by Tuesday (note Euro is forecasting a high of +2C for Winnipeg Tuesday along with rain or wet snow). Current highs for days 6 and 7 (Monday and Tuesday in this case) are way too optimistic and based on ensemble model guidance that is too warm and too dry for southern MB.

Rob, have you seen the temperatures this past while in Alaska?? They are the ones in around 20C while we are the ones getting their normal weather. It is the same old weather pattern that we have been getting all winter long. URH! Now excuse me while I go back and hibernate under the covers.

The models are all over the place for Sunday, showing anywhere from 21C (GEM-REG) to 7C (GFS). Even the NAM stays below 10C. The CMC ensemble also shows anywhere from 13 to 20C for tomorrow's high - pretty uncertain for a 1-day forecast.

Looks like that cooler wet weather will be delayed Sunday as that upper trough spins out west (bad for them, good for us) which means we should be able to squeeze out another mild day Sunday before things cool off and get wetter by Monday and Tuesday. Wow.. could it be? 3 nice days in a row?

3 mm at the airport, 5 mm at the Forks. (I picked up 4 mm in Charleswood) Generally looks like 5-10 mm fell over the east end of Winnipeg, with 2-5 mm west of the Red River. Nowhere near the 20-30 mm models were giving us.

For what it's worth at this point some long range european forecasts as well as the GFS models hinting at summer like weather for late mext week into the following week. Accuweather also showing mid to upper twenties late next week. Keeping fingers crossed it happens! The trend does look better to after we get through this cruddy day.

Sure hope it pans out.. this weather is beating me into submission. A couple of nice days every once in a while just ain't cutting it for me. I need more prolonged sunshine and heat! Doesn't help when my mom calls me this morning complaining that it's too hot and humid in southern Niagara and she needs her AC on.. (28/20 yesterday) Oh to complain about the heat!

Yes it sure has been tough these last 7 months or so! I can't disagree the rare nice day sure doesn't cut it, but unfortunately nothing we can do, but keeping hoping for that prolonged nicer weather they have been promising for weeks now! I never complain about the heat, I say just bring it! While hot weather soon would be great, right now I will simply take consistent normal temp weather in a heartbeat!

The Freeze Warnings have been extended for another 300 miles south of El paso TexasTo Marfa Fort Stockton tonight where the record cold temp +5c tonght and they are expecting -5 And it was over 36C 4 days ago Bring on near normal for us.