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Macro Afternoon

A sea of red for Asian stocks today following the poor lead from Wall Street overnight as falling commodity prices on the back of a resurgent USD cascading into a mining stock selloff. 3Q Australian GDP data came in lower than expected which gave the local index a small reprieve as the Aussie dollar reversed sharply.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite has fallen straight through key support at 3300 points, down nearly 1% to be at 3275 points. As I said yesterday if this level broke, the next support zone at the 3200 level beckons quite fast. The Hang Seng Index is doing even worse, down nearly 1.2% to 28481 points. My target at the 28500 point level has been reached already, with the next point at 28080 or so very close – but I think this is a little too fasT:

S&P futures are slipping as to be expected with the risk off mood, falling below the ATR trailing support level at 2630 which must remain firm here or this dip could widen:

Japanese stocks were the worst in the region as Yen zoomed higher against USD. The Nikkei closed nearly 2% lower to 22195 points, confirming the bearish double top pattern I’ve been warning about on the daily chart. The USDJPY pair was looking firm here at the 112.50 mid zone but has sold off sharply in the last couple of hours. We could see a fall below the 112 handle and down to the prebreakout area at 111.50 or so:

The ASX200 gapped down again at the open on the poor lead from Wall Street but recovered somewhat on the soft GDP print, as lower interest rates continue to support the market. The afternoon session was more tepid and it sold off again, losing 0.5% to 5943 points. The main culprits here were miners, with the big-not-Australian BHP losing more than 2% with Rio Tinto off nearly 3%

The false breakout last night on the RBA decision by the Australian dollar has been completely wiped out and then some by todays GDP print, reverting well below the 76 handle against the USD. This takes it on a trajectory to former support at the 75.60:

The data calendar includes the Canadian central bank meeting followed by a DOE crude oil inventory report.

Lots and lots and lots and much advertising money from developers pushing GC towers of course. Imagine sitting there in an euphoric state after watching ‘Cracker’ Jack Forbisher pick up a bronze in the lawn bowls when BANG, there it is. An exiciting and scantily clad ad for the Bud Tingwell Apartments on Kirra. Who could resist dialing the 1300 number and registering some interest?

very few orgs that we work with are doing anything meaningful or even thinking about value chains, which won’t surprise you at all. but i work for a smaller consultancy so we don’t have the coverage of the big tier ones. I’m sure all the big companies and govt agencies do have someone that has read ‘the lean enterprise’ and is trying to drive change. god knows thoughtworks have made enough money from australian businesses

those few that we are working with in this area… well, let’s just say that there is a lot of upside 😉

and govt agencies do have someone that has read ‘the lean enterprise’ and is trying to drive change

Yes. But this is quite difficult to do in any effective way from inside a locked filing cabinet, stuck in a dis-used lavatory, with a sign on the door saying “Beware of the leopard.” which is where most of the aforementioned employees who attempt such things are destined to spend the remainder of their ‘careers’. Unless they’re​ working on someone elses’ ideas from, well, above… of course.

They mention increases in rent and power bills with high debt causing consumers to stop spending. But talk about rising house prices giving them confidence? But what about those who don’t own homes? We just keep saving harder and harder like losers as Resua would remind us.. 😁

Just watching Nicholas Reece (yet another high-immigration promoting leftie) insisting that Australian’s quality of life has improved in every single measure. We need to double-check our arithmetic on finances and affordability.

Currently in Argentina at the moment, jet lagged so can’t sleep that well and browsing articles etc.. but was on Qantas flight and saw good Vice documentary on rising tensions in the region. Shows a Phillipines charter plane flying over 1 of these Islands and over radio Chinese navy is telling them to leave the area, despite being recognised as international waters.

Also showing how a lot of other Attols are inhabited by citizens of other nations who are paid to live on them to prevent China claiming them as annexing them would be an act of war.

Interesting times lie ahead, same Video shows Putin’s land grab of Crimea and how US influence over global geo politics is being challenged. Throw Syria and North Korea into the mix and we live in interesting times.

Yes HB55……I have no doubt the Islands and their fighter hangers are well and strongly fabricated from steel and concrete …….but any stories about their actual exustance or militarisation in the western press are mere fabrications “based on Cold War ideology “