Ayello: Five story lines to watch as IndyCar heads to Pocono

INDIANAPOLIS – The Verizon IndyCar Series heads to Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pa., this weekend to race in its 14th event of the season. Coverage of the ABC Supply 500 begins at 2 p.m. Sunday on NBC Sports Network.

Here are the five biggest storylines heading into the race at the “Tricky Triangle”:

Newgarden might not relinquish his lead

For the first time since the Detroit weekend, someone not named Scott Dixon is leading the standings. That someone, of course, is Josef Newgarden, who after back-to-back wins in Toronto and Mid-Ohio is pacing the paddock in points for the first time in his career. And with just four races to go, former IndyCar driver and NBCSN analyst Townsend Bell doesn’t expect the budding superstar to wilt amid the pressure.

“He’s on a roll now of unleashing a fire and fury the likes of which IndyCar has never seen before,” Bell said. “He has the confidence now. After winning a couple of races and leading the championship and getting chemistry with the engineers, he has a good read on his teammates and the data, he’s in a groove now. That move he put he on (Will Power) at Mid-Ohio, that was the flag-planting of the young American, saying, ‘Not only am I here, I’m in charge now.’”

Newgarden heads to Pocono with a recent history of success there, posting three top-five finishes in four visits, including a runner-up in 2015.

If he were to win, he’d be the first driver to win three races in a row since Penske teammate Simon Pagenaud did so last season (Long Beach, Birmingham, Indianapolis Grand Prix). He’d also be the first driver under 30 to win three straight since a 26-year-old Scott Dixon accomplished the feat in 2007.

Josef Newgarden has won the past two IndyCar races, including here at Toronto on July 16. (Dan Hamilton, USA TODAY Sports)

Honda brings an advantage into Sunday’s race

If anything is going to stop Newgarden from rattling off a third consecutiive victory it could be Honda’s power advantage on the bigger speedways.

Superspeedways are Honda’s domain. That’s no secret. Honda powered its way to a win at Indianapolis and put four cars in the top five after placing nine in the first four rows.

A couple of weeks later, a Chevrolet car escaped the melee at Texas Motor Speedway’s 1.5-mile track with the win, but only after Honda had claimed the first eight qualifying spots, including the pole.

“You definitely have to give an edge to Honda at Pocono,” Bell said.

Of course a Chevrolet-powered car could certainly pull down victory lane Sunday, and it might not necessarily be a Penske. The cars of Ed Carpenter Racing have also been strong at larger speedways, so expect Carpenter and JR Hildebrand to have a say in how Sunday’s race unfolds.

Three title contenders who have no room for error

At this point in the season, there are two tiers of championship contenders. There are the frontrunners — leader Josef Newgarden (453 points), Helio Castroneves (446), Scott Dixon (445) and Simon Pagenaud (436); and there are those on the edge of contention — Will Power (401), Graham Rahal (395) and Takuma Sato (381).

While one of the frontrunners could potentially rebound from a rough race, there is no more room for error for Power, Rahal or Sato. One slip in any of the four remaining events, and each can likely kiss his championship hopes goodbye.

Fortunately for all three, there’s reason to believe they could thrive at Pocono. Team Penske’s Power will likely not have the power of his Honda competitors, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t equipped to win at Pocono’s superspeedway. Not only does Power own the distinction of being the defending race champion, he proved the fastest Penske at both Indianapolis and Texas, out-qualifying his teammates at both.

Will Power pumps his fist as he takes the checkered flag to win the 2016 race at Pocono Raceway. (Mel Evans, AP)

Meanwhile, Rahal will have the Honda power and is rolling right now. He has five top-five finishes in his past seven races, including a fourth-place finish at Texas.

“Clearly, we are on top of our game,” said Rahal after his third-place run at Mid-Ohio. “There’s no other team better than us right now other than (Team Penske) — but from the rest on down.”

And Sato doesn’t need to have his superspeedway merits spelled out. The reigning Indy 500 champion has struggled to stay on track at Pocono, though, crashing out of two of his four career races there and exiting with an electrical problem in a third. If he can avoid trouble, however, he’ll be a serious threat to emerge with a victory.

The 27-year-old Colombian has made no secret of his desire to return to IndyCar as a full-time driver and knows that this two-race audition could be his best shot.

Pocono also will be the site of Gabby Chaves’ and Harding Racing’s return to the track. Last seen in Texas, the team will be looking to go 3-for-3 with top-10 finishes this year after Chaves cruised to ninth at the Indianapolis 500 and survived the chaos in Fort Worth to come in fifth.

Harding team manager Larry Curry told The Indianapolis Star Chaves has been frequenting the Chevrolet simulator this week to refamiliarize himself with the car in hopes of finishing their season strong and building momentum for next season.

Curry said he and team owner Mike Harding remain hopeful the team can put together a full-time effort next year. However, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over that goal. Harding has just five full-time employees and will need to begin expanding soon if it hopes to be ready to test 2018 cars by the end of the year.

Harding, like seemingly every other entity in the IndyCar world, is in a holding pattern until Andretti Autosport decides on a manufacturer. If Andretti switches to Chevrolet and runs four cars, there might not be a Chevrolet engine available for Harding. So while there are still plenty of things Harding Racing can be doing to ensure it is part of the field full-time next year, some of it is out of the team’s control.

Rossi scores his first win of the 2017 IndyCar season

Combine Honda’s power advantage at superspeedways with its newfound reliability, and Chevrolet’s odds of driving down victory lane on Sunday are diminished. Honda-powered cars enter the weekend the clear favorites, and among them, the Andretti foursome would seem to have an edge after their dominance in May.

Five of the six Andretti cars qualified in the first four rows before Sato won the Indianapolis 500. Marco Andretti and Alexander Rossi each tallied top-10s, while Ryan Hunter-Reay and Fernando Alonso had their extremely promising days derailed by engine failures that are no longer a concern for Honda.

It would make a for a great story if Marco Andretti put an end to his 105-race winless drought near his hometown of Nazareth, Pa., but Rossi seems the better bet. The 2016 Indianapolis 500 winner has qualified third at both superspeedways this year and has been sharp lately, finishing second in Toronto before a sixth-place run at Mid-Ohio.

Hunter-Reay and Sato absolutely will be factors, as well, but look for Rossi to pick up his first victory of the year — and his first since the 100th 500 — this weekend.

Ayello writes for The Indianapolis Star, part of the USA TODAY Network.