The National Association for Business Economicsprojects 2.4% real
economic growth in the U.S. next year following a 2.2% estimate for 2016, which
was revised down from 2.6% projected in December. The gains follow a 2.4%
rise in both 2015 and 2014. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to range between
2.5% and 2.5%. Growth in personal consumption expenditures is expected to
moderate to 2.6% next year following 2.8% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2015.
Nevertheless, these remain the strongest yearly gains since 2006. Growth
expectations for business investment in equipment in 2016 eased to 4.0% from 4.9%
projected earlier. Expected growth in spending on nonresidential structures held
steady at 4.0%, following last year's moderate decline. Real net exports are
expected to deteriorate next year, producing another drag on U.S. GDP growth as
import growth of 4.2% outpaces the 3.1% gain in exports. The rate of inventory
investment is expected to ease to the slowest since 2012. Growth of 7.0% next
year in residential investment compares to 8.3% in 2016. It thus should continue
to be the economy's strongest sector.

Housing starts are expected to average 1.37 million after a slightly
lowered 2016 estimate of 1.24 million. Expected light vehicle
sales of 17.4 million units next year followed a raised estimate of 17.6 million
this year. Average monthly gains in payroll employment are expected to ease
to 179,000 from 195,000 in 2016, which was lessened slightly. Expectations
for the unemployment rate of 4.6% next year compared to a reduced estimate
of 4.7% in 2016. Consumer price inflation is expected to average 2.2% next
year, the quickest rate of increase since 2011. The core PCE price index
should rise 1.9% next year, also the strongest gain since 2011.

The forecasted 3.04% interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes at the end of
next year follows 2.50% at the end of this year. The Fed is expected to continue
raising the federal funds rate to 1.88% by the end of next year. Corporate
profits next year should rise 3.7% following a reduced 2.0% forecast for this
year. The Federal government budget deficit is expected to be $526 billion in
2017, roughly one-third its $1.4 trillion peak in 2009.

The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.