Why Pakistan Army wanted Nawaz Sharif out and here's what may happen

Nawaz Sharif’s ouster is going to accentuate many problems of Pakistan, posing new challenges for neighbours like India and Afghanistan.

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Updated: Jul 31, 2017, 01.20 AM IST

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Ensuring that Sharif does not return to power will be high on the army’s agenda, which the judiciary evidently shares.

By G Parthasarathy

The “Panama Leaks” revealed last year that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family had acquired substantial overseas assets including residential properties in London and Dubai, which were evidently unaccounted for. The political uproar that followed led to the Pakistan Supreme Court setting up a Joint Investigation Team (JIT). There is a widespread impression that Nawaz Sharif was removed from office by Pakistan’s Supreme Court on the basis of evidence that he and members of his family illegally possessed huge unaccounted financial assets and properties in London and elsewhere.

The Supreme Court, however, removed Sharif from office exclusively on the basis of evidence provided by the JIT that he did not declare an amount of UAE Dirhams 10,000 (equivalent to Rs 1.7 Lakh) he received from a UAE Company, while filing his nomination papers for elections in 2013.

The Supreme Court used convoluted arguments, which have been questioned even by eminent Pakistani lawyers, to justify its decision. The court held that even though Sharif never received this money, he was bound to declare it as a “receivable”!! The Supreme Court bench also ruled that the evidence collected by the Joint Intelligence Team had to be used in proceedings in an “Accountability Court” to prosecute Sharif, his two sons, his daughter and his son in law.

The Supreme Court bench appears to have rejected the assertions by Sharif and his kin that the family acquired the properties abroad and especially in London, over the past two decades, through business activities abroad. His daughter and heir apparent Mariam did the family cause no good by producing a document on her assets, which was patently fraudulent.

In a larger perspective, Pakistan’s rulers and elite openly and proudly flaunt lavish lifestyles and properties in London and Dubai. Benazir Bhutto owned a Villa in Surrey, a Castle near Paris and properties in Dubai. General Musharraf owns luxurious properties in London and Dubai. But, the Supreme Court is known to run scared of the army. It has evidently yielded to army pressures and desisted from acting against Musharraf in a number of cases. Worse still, it inexplicably appointed two serving army officers, with no judicial or investigative experience, or knowledge of civilian laws, as members of the Joint Investigation Team, it constituted.

Sharif has announced that his brother Shahbaz, who is chief minister of Punjab, will succeed him as prime minister. But, the period ahead is not gong to be smooth, as the army is uneasy with Sharif’s propensity to differ with it on some foreign policy issues, including most importantly, relations with India. There have been differences between Nawaz and the army on issues like the terrorist attacks by the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba in Pathankot and Uri. There are also differences on supporting the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

The army reacted strongly. It sought and secured the sacking of Sharif’s personal foreign policy adviser Tareq Fatemi for leaking information about these differences. Ensuring that Sharif does not return to power will be high on the army’s agenda, which the judiciary evidently shares.

The army will seek to split Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League Party through its links with senior leaders like interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. While Shahbaz Sharif has maintained a closer relationship with army generals than his elder brother Nawaz, the ISI will spare no effort to discredit and marginalise Nawaz.

While Nawaz had a wide range of contacts with international leaders and knew his way around in summit diplomacy, Shahbaz lacks such international experience and will concede an even more domineering role to the military, on relations with India, US, Afghanistan and China. Shahbaz will also face problems in conduct of economic policy.

Pakistan is facing serious balance of payments problems. The present finance minister Ishaq Dhar is an experienced hand, and related to the Sharif family. His services will be sorely missed as he has also been indicted, along with others members of the Sharif family. The road ahead is going to be bumpy for the Pakistan government. Apart from uncertainties arising from the forthcoming trial of Nawaz, Ishaq Dar and other members of the Sharif family, the ruling dispensation has to prepare for national elections next year.

The forthcoming judicial proceedings will impact adversely on the preparations of the ruling party for the elections. It was otherwise expected to do well and even win. Moreover, in a situation where the main opposition Party, the PPP, is organizationally weak in even its strongholds in Sind and Southern Punjab, the mercurial and virulently anti-Indian Imran Khan, who has been a protégé of the army, could emerge stronger than he is now. But, irrespective of who emerges victorious, Pakistan will have to deal with serious challenges of extremism within and across its borders. Nawaz Sharif’s ouster is only going to accentuate these problems, posing new challenges for neighbours like India and Afghanistan.

The writer is former high commissioner to Pakistan, Australia and Myanmar

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)