Obama’s Ground Game Makes Iowa Tough Turf For Romney

It’s Election Day in Iowa, and it has been for weeks.

Recent polling in the state shows Republican Mitt Romney quickly closing the gap in the presidential race, but that may be less and less important with every day that passes. Political watchers say President Obama has been successful this year at getting his supporters to take advantage of Iowa’s early voting system and that likely has given him a head start at a time when he still leads in the polls.

Pollster Ann Selzer, who runs the respected Des Moines Register survey, said there are signs that Iowans who have already cast a ballot are leaning heavily toward Obama.

“Two-to-one, people who say they have already voted are Barack Obama supporters,” Selzer told TPM. “The majority of people who plan to vote early are Barack Obama supporters. The majority of people who plan to vote on election day, Romney supporters. I think that’s what’s gets tricky — you have to have a huge margin on election day to offset the Democrats.”

1. Does having a lead in early voting necessarily preclude that those who wait to vote

2. No

...but it makes it harder. Every early voter is a 100% guaranteed vote, in the bank.

Additionally, the more of those you get squared away in advance the more your ground game can focus on the rest of your voters on election day while the other side is trying to get all of their people rounded up who they didn't get to the polls early.