Jonathan Comey: Who should Pats fans be rooting for this weekend?

Will it be the Bengals coming to Gillette Stadium next weekend? The Colts? The Chiefs?

JONATHAN COMEY

Will it be the Bengals coming to Gillette Stadium next weekend? The Colts? The Chiefs?

Patriots fans won't find that answer out until both AFC wild card playoff games are done playing out on Saturday and Sunday, a rare relaxing January weekend for any Super Bowl-hungry city.

But while we'll break down all three teams in the paragraphs to come, it's worth noting that for the Patriots, when it comes to opening games there's only one team that really matters.

The Patriots.

If they play well in their opening playoff game, they win, usually fairly decisively.

New England has 10 playoff trips under its belt with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, all 10 of which began at home, and only two of those resulted in a one-and-done. And in both losses, it was the bizarre, almost freakish, failures of New England more than the excellence of the opposition that led to their demise.

In 2009, the Patriots spotted Baltimore a 24-0 lead off of a blown defensive call leading to a long Ray Rice run, then Brady turned it over twice deep in his own end. Game over.

The bigger shock came in 2010, when New England had been playing impeccable football when the Jets hit town; an early turnover was the difference, and the Patriots' bizarrely slow pace down 14 in the fourth quarter erased any chance they had at victory.

I remember being in the Jets' locker room after the win, Jay-Z's "Empire State of Mind" blasting out of a portable stereo, quarterback Mark Sanchez looking as shocked at what had transpired as the New England fans did.

As Belichick said Wednesday: "Look, it isn't even who has the better team. It's just who plays better."

Still, eight out of 10 times in playoff openers, it's been his Patriots — some in classic nail-biters (2001 vs. Oakland, 2003 vs. Tennessee), most with methodical ease.

That said, Belichick takes no comfort from history, and with no opponent to singularly scout, it's an unsettling time.

"You have a bye week in the regular season, you know who the next opponent is, you know who the one is after that and you know when you're playing them and who you're playing, when you're playing them, what the sequence is," he said Wednesday. "We have no idea."

As for Brady, he was undecided whether he'd even watch the games this weekend.

"I don't know, sometimes you get really riled up watching the game, and then you start cheering for teams to win or lose, and then, you know "» yeah, you don't want to ride the wave, so I try to just — I'll use my time as best as possible to prepare myself, so whatever it needs to be, that's what it will be."

In the meantime, we'll do what Brady, Belichick and the Patriots are doing now — look at the strengths and weakness of the three possible visitors to Foxboro next week where the current forecast calls for a 60-percent chance of rain.

Road record: 3-5

How they wind up in Foxboro: Win Sunday vs. San Diego (1 p.m.); San Diego locked in to playing Denver if it wins.

Great players you might not have heard of: T Andrew Whitworth, DE Carlos Dunlap, DE Michael Johnson

Old friends: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, KR Brandon Tate

What they do well: They have a great vertical passing game behind QB Andy Dalton, who plays like a lesser version of Brett Favre, and the emergence of WR Marvin Jones (10 TDs) alongside Green has made the Bengals' passing offense very dangerous. On defense, their front-seven was probably the best in the league before they lost DT Geno Atkins for the season, and has only been slightly diminished without him. The secondary's not too shabby either.

What they don't do well: Dalton has a big arm, but 20 interceptions in today's NFL is a really high number. They've turned the ball over three or more times in five of the last seven games, not what you expect from a contender. It's a fatal flaw you know the Patriots will be wanting to exploit. They also are very poor running the ball (3.6 yards per carry) — especially when it's the plodding Green-Ellis — which could be a factor if there's rain.

Matchup problems for the Patriots: There would be quite a few, actually. Cincinnati's tackles are excellent, especially in pass blocking, and the Pats would need to pressure Dalton. If it's between the Cincy receivers and the New England secondary in space, advantage Bengals.

Desirability factor: While the Bengals have that head-to-head win over New England, and are the best overall team of the three possibilities, they struggled on the road and have turned in back-to-back stinkers in the postseason. Dalton in particular has been rough in one-and-dones in 2011 and 2012. A visit from Cincy probably wouldn't strike too much fear in the Patriots' heart of hearts.

Road record: 5-3

How they wind up in Foxboro: Win Saturday at home vs. Kansas City, San Diego beats Cincinnati on Sunday

What they do well: The Colts are very similar to the Patriots — hurt badly by key injuries, but great on special teams, well-coached and with a special player at quarterback in Luck. He's got legs, arm, intangibles, all of it. They're not really great at anything, but their balance adds up to more than the sum of their parts.

What they don't do well: They're very weak against the run, which would be right up New England's alley, and they are vulnerable to downfield pass plays, which isn't up New England's alley.

Matchup problems for the Patriots: Mathis, who had 19.5 sacks, moves all over the place to create confusion, and with health an issue on the Pats' line that would be a big problem.

Desirability factor: The Colts are probably the worst team of the three, but that doesn't mean it's an appealing matchup. Andrew Luck has that X-factor that Brady had when he was a young QB, and I would be pretty nervous as a Patriots fan watching that "other" No. 12 try to put his first legacy game together.

Road record: 6-2

How they wind up in Foxboro: Win Saturday at Indianapolis, Cincinnati loses to San Diego

What they do well: While this is a team that has lost five of its last seven, the Chiefs are still extremely careful with the ball (only 17 total turnovers) and, when healthy, have as talented a defense as there is. And they have one of the game's greatest and most underappreciated backs in Charles, who is the all-time leader in yards per carry at 5.6. He scored 19 touchdowns, and was probably the league's most consistent offensive performer not named Manning. Peyton, that is.

What they don't do well: They've certainly shown their flaws against quality opposition — 1-5 vs. playoff teams, 10-0 against everyone else. Their passing game is vanilla at best, but it's the complete disappearing act of the pass rush that's changed the reputation of this team. OLB Justin Houston was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before going down; since, the Chiefs have gotten torched by good offenses — which is all there is in the AFC playoff field.

Matchup problems for the Patriots: You have to stop Charles, and Smith doesn't give you the turnovers the Patriots crave. Other than that, though, New England would match up well.