Decision Time for Europe

After muddling through a series of profound crises over the past decade, the EU now finds itself confronted with a political meltdown in Britain, a potential trade war with the US, and mounting security threats on its periphery. To address these and other challenges, Europe will have to make decisions it would rather continue to postpone.

STOCKHOLM – Say what you will against the European Union, but it does not lack ambitions or plans for realizing them. Almost immediately after the June 2016 Brexit referendum, the EU’s 27 other member states agreed to the “Bratislava Roadmap,” charting the course for a future without the United Kingdom. One year later, EU leaders reconvened in Tallinn and adopted a “Leaders’ Agenda” to “guide EU action up until the European Parliament elections in May 2019.” And now, the EU is preparing for a summit in Sibiu, Romania, that same month, where these blueprints will be finalized.

Still, the EU ultimately will be judged on results, not resolutions. Over the past decade, the bloc has faced two profound challenges, and it is now in the process of confronting a third. The first was the euro crisis, which could have ended with the demise of the common currency. Instead, a series of summits were held, and Europe managed to muddle through. With time, member states’ economies started to recover, and new instruments for coordinating economic policy within the eurozone were adopted.

But just when the EU was starting to regain the public’s trust, it was hit by the 2015 refugee crisis, which affected some countries far more than others, exposing glaring inconsistencies in the application of common rules concerning the movement of people. The number of asylum seekers traveling to Europe has since fallen substantially, but fears of a return to 2015 continue to haunt voters. And, more broadly, there is a growing awareness of how conflicts in the Middle East and demographic trends in Africa could threaten European stability.

Now comes the third challenge: the UK’s impending withdrawal from the EU. With Prime Minister Theresa May having so far failed to secure parliamentary support for her negotiated exit deal, Britain is in the midst of a full-scale political crisis, and EU leaders have no choice but to watch from the sidelines as the drama unfolds. A country that once led the world now cannot even lead itself.

With the European Parliament election fast approaching, this is no time for complacency. After the horrors of the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election in 2016 came a renewal of hope with French President Emmanuel Macron’s election in 2017. But in 2018, Europe’s prospects reverted to a state of deep uncertainty – nowhere more so than in France itself. There can be no telling what 2019 will bring.

What we do know is that governance across the EU is becoming more challenging as large mainstream political parties lose support to upstart parties and movements of both the left and the right. In this increasingly fragmented and polarized political landscape, the process of forming national governments has become long and arduous; even Sweden is following this unfortunate new pattern.

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Making matters worse, economic growth across the EU appears to be slowing – and that was even before the eruption of mass protests in France and Italy’s confrontation with the EU over its proposed budget. Whereas Italy’s populist government has sought to blame the country’s problems on the EU bureaucracy in Brussels, Macron has responded to public concerns by calling for even stronger EU institutions.

But both perspectives elide the fact that change will depend on politically painful domestic reforms. And besides, regardless of how long Chancellor Angela Merkel remains in office, it is already clear that German backing for a “transfer union” is not in the cards. The danger now is that political uncertainty in Germany, France, Italy, and the UK will create an opening for populists and self-declared “illiberal” democrats such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to build more walls (physically as well as metaphorically) and mobilize the ghosts of nationalism.

Moreover, Europe’s external environment has become more dangerous. Though the world’s attention is currently fixed on the risks of an escalating Sino-American trade war, the threat of an equally destructive transatlantic conflict cannot be ignored. Trump seems genuinely to believe that German cars on the streets of New York pose a threat to US national security. Should he wake up one morning and decide to impose heavy import tariffs on European cars, things could get very ugly, very fast. Many European policymakers, already convinced that the US-based tech giants are a threat to European security, would welcome the opportunity to pursue stronger actions against them. If the US responded in kind, the casualties would pile up quickly.

One also cannot forget the mounting geopolitical and humanitarian challenges on the EU’s periphery. Trump, driven by an obsession with Iran, seems intent on aggravating ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. And it would be absurd to think that Russian President Vladimir Putin will refrain from interfering in Ukraine’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. Russia’s blockade of the Kerch Strait – the entry point to the strategically important Sea of Azov – and military buildup on Crimea indicate that Europe cannot let down its guard.

To manage these and future challenges, the EU will have to redefine itself, starting in 2019. In an increasingly dangerous geopolitical environment, the EU can no longer rely solely on soft power. And, as is the case for all governments, it must start preparing for the digital revolution, or risk punishing costs over the near and long term.

The Bratislava Roadmap, the Leaders’ Agenda, and the upcoming Sibiu summit are all well and good – even necessary. But whereas 2018 was a year of confusion, 2019 will be year for decision-making. European leaders must face up to the brutal realities of a changing world. Only then will voters trust them to forge a new path toward a future of peace and prosperity.

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to October 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Chair of the Global Commission on Internet Governance and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

Yes, I agree, EU need to redefine itself. It needs to redefine itself as a Free association of sovereign countries, not trying to create a unworkable, utopian and inevitably totalitarian European Federation. One euro-monster is more than enough.

As a German, I find it always funny that it is called for Germany to transfer money, in terms of assets per capita a lot of Italian and French property owners are significantly more wealthy than their German counterparts, so they only thing that needs to be fixed are effective taxation systems.

More to the point though, where is the plan forward. Politicians are called to lead, but what is a feasible Agenda 2019 ? I have no idea, quite literally. I would love to see European institutions finally created (an army, a proper European government, a foreign ministry, and yes, a proper border protection), but I fail to have the fantasy for that. An exit/ejection mechanism for countries that do not adhere to certain standards (i.e. eject Hungary and Poland).

But I have no idea on who could bring about such a change preparing Europe for the 2020ies...

If I read Mr Pompeo's speech in Brussel correctly, he declared a program of abolishing the present Liberal World Order based on the UN, the EU, the IMF, the WB, the WTO, etc for a new Liberal Order based on sovereign nation states. United States decided to lead this new order forever. Every sovereign state will get a sovereign chance to stand behind the American flag. It will be its problem if chooses badly. When nobody comments the speech does it mean that people do not take this speech seriously?I do not think the EU policy towards Ukraine under guidance of Mr Bildt and Mr Szikorski was particulary successful. Maybe Mr Bildt could write an assesment how he sees his responsibility for present disaster in Ukraine.

Some of the EUs problems can be put down to misfortune driven by external events. The migrant crisis exposed areas of border security which had always been seen as a national responsibility, so it is ironic that the EU took much of the blame for a slow policy response.

However the EU is responsible for advancing two policies prematurely : unlimited freedom of movement for new member countries, and the single currency. A pre-requisite for both should have been a high degree of economic convergence, but this was not seen at the time, and now leaves elephant sized problems to overcome. Moving into reverse on either of these policies would now be very painful, so there seems little alternative but to muddle through and invest in greater long term convergence, learning from countries like Poland which have made spectacular progress over the last 20 years.

A high priority should be to make the single market work properly for services as well as goods. This should help to create European companies with the scale needed to rival America and China in IT and AI technology. A strategy that could be greatly reinforced if the EU partnered with India to develop alternative platforms to Google, Amazon or Tencent.

Robert. I completely disagree. The EU should have secured the external EU borders before they opened the internal borders ( Schengen ), some 30 years ago.Although the situation has recently improved they still do not have an effective system. Especially in regard to the return of illegal immigrants.

Carl Bildt says Europe is facing “decision time” in 2019. Apparently it has to grapple with so many challenges, that he cannot propose any concrete decision. It is obvious that we can no longer kick the can down the road and must get our act together, after muddling through a series of “profound” crises in recent years. Italy and Spain could once again plunge the eurozone into another crisis. Tensions between EU member states over how to handle illegal immigration from the Middle East and Africa remain high. Not to ignore the upcoming challenges – a “political meltdown” in Britain, a potential trade war with the US and “mounting security threats on its periphery.”Another problem is that right-wing populist parties have made inroads into the legislative and executive in many European countries, that defy EU authority and flout EU laws. But the immediate concern is the European Parliament election in May 2019. As major mainstream parties have lost ground to “upstart” anti-EU parties and movements of both the left and the right, there is “no time for complacency” in light of a fragmented and polarized political landscape. No doubt sluggish growth is going to make governance across the EU all the “more challenging”, because it is increasingly difficult to provide for the working class that has been struggling with high unemployment, dwindling incomes and declining living standard in an era of economic globalisation and automation. Populists have an easy task peddling protectionist and xenophobic rhetoric to win support and divide the society. Meanwhile the influx of refugees and migrants fleeing disastrous wars in the Middle East and abject poverty in Africa and Asia will not recede in the absence of security and stability in their countries of origin. Solutions need to be found to address the cause of grievances. With the two major rogue actors – Trump and Putin – indulging in geopolitical brinkmanship, the world could anytime slide into a global conflict. Trump is obsessed with Iran, backing its archenemy, Saudi Arabia under the inexperienced and impetuous crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, in his quest for regional hegemony. Putin is bent on returning Ukraine to Russia’s fold, despite Ukrainian resistance, and expanding its clout in the Middle East. While the bloc needs to be clear-eyed in confronting all the crises that threaten to destabilise Europe, “the EU will have to redefine itself, starting in 2019. In an increasingly dangerous geopolitical environment, the EU can no longer rely solely on soft power. And, as is the case for all governments, it must start preparing for the digital revolution, or risk punishing costs over the near and long term.”The author suggests a revamp of Europe’s military hard power capable of defending the Continent against aggression. The digital revolution is not just about technology, but also the people. When companies go digital, they must focus less on the technologies and more on the people who use them. This requires an investment in human resources. A skilled work force is the most effective way to boost growth and immunise against far-right populism. Indeed, “European leaders must face up to the brutal realities of a changing world. Only then will voters trust them to forge a new path toward a future of peace and prosperity.”

The EU cannot redefine itself, it has become too complex, too many EU treaties, too many rules and laws, too many Int'l treaties, too many vested interests, etc. It is back to the drawing board. The current EU and International Institutions are not fit for the 21st Century!

The E.U. can be viewed as a group of predators without prey. There are no internal minorities to exterminate, no black african ethnic groups to exterminate, no north american territories to ethnically cleanse. Meanwhile the prospects of aligning all european nations on Germany in order to turn the E.U. into a coherent super-predator able to disintegrate China and turn it into a permanent low cost zone seem to be vanishing. Therefore there is now a risk of internal predation, Germany being interested in keeping the E.U. as divided as possible in order to stay on the predator side of things, otherwise it will fall prey to the southern countries spearheaded by Micron.

Europe's problems arise because it keeps trying to define itself in a sexy way. Let it stop doing so and focus on what it is good at- viz. being boring and stupid and a twilight home for senile politicians. After all, Europeans know that their continent is old and gemutlich- not anything sexy at all. Instead of trying to compete with the US it should content itself with becoming a more boring version of Switzerland.

An excellent summing up of the problems faced by the EU, and I agree entirely that if these problems are to be tackled then 2019 should be a year for decisions.

But solving the fundamental problems, particularly with the Euro and migration, will require treaty change, and there lies the problem. Jean Monnet believed that Europe’s leaders had what he called the”permissive consensus” of European citizens to put in place policies which were too complex for democratic debate but were, nevertheless, in his opinion, a “force for good”. The high water mark of this “permissive consensus”, if such ever existed, came prior to the narrow 51% approval rating given by French referendum on the Maastricht Treaty, and the tide had ebbed completely once first France and then the Netherlands voted against adoption of the proposed EU Constitution.

In the complete absence of this “permissive consensus” it is now widely recognised that the chance of obtaining any significant treaty change within the the EU, is next to zero. Thus with the failure of partial monetary union the Great European Project has finally run into the sand. Although clearly not yet dead, this beached behemoth is clearly in trouble unless it can turn itself around very soon.

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