Saddleback Valley Christian's Trey Mena puts in a reverse layup against Servite in the Nike Extravaganza on Feb. 3, 2017. (Photo by Bill Alkofer,Orange County Register/SCNG)

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Sonora's Kevin Marlow puts up a shot over Troy's Ty Lassiter in the paint during a Freeway League boys basketball game at Troy High School on January 20, 2017. (Photo by Matt Masin, Orange County Register, SCNG)

San Clemente guard Blake Birmingham drives along the sideline during a South Coast League game against Aliso Niguel.

OCVarsity's Steve Fryer says Mater Dei's Bol Bol, shown playing against Orange Lutheran this season, gives the Monarchs a good chance of making it to the Open Division semifinals. (Photo by Paul Rodriguez, Orange County Register/SCNG)

OCVarsity's Steve Fryer says that the Mater Dei has a lot of talent, including standout guard Spencer Freedman, but might be lacking the outside shooters needed to win the Open Division title. (Photo by Paul Rodriguez, Orange County Register/SCNG)

OCVarsity's Steve Fryer says that Edison has the talent, including Nate Matthews, left, to rise up and win the CIF-SS Division 1AA title.

OCVarsity's Steve Fryer likes Edison's chances of winning CIF-SS Division 1AA, but notes that the Chargers will need Randall Walker, shown dunking during a game this season, to be at full health.

OCVarsity's Steve Fryer likes the way that Sierra Canyon's Marvin Bagley III plays around the basket, and Fryer predicts Sierra Canyon will end up winning the Open Division.

OCVarsity's Steve Fryer says that standout sophomore LaMelo Ball, shown scoring on a layup this season, and teammates will probably fall short of winning the CIF-SS title this season. (Micah Escamilla/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, SCNG)

Villa Park High's Myles Franklin glides in for the score against Canyon High's Jordan Holden during the second half of a nonleague boys basketball game at Canyon High. (Photo by Ed Crisostomo, Orange County Register/SCNG)

The CIF-Southern Section boys basketball playoffs begin this week. So, as usual, it’s time for my predictions on what will happen between now and the CIF-SS finals on March 3 and 4.

If a team that I didn’t pick to go far gets to the semifinals or even wins a championship, the “you didn’t think we could do it” stuff will come. If I pick a team to win it all, nobody says, “Hey, Fryer, thanks for believing in us,” whether that team does win it all or loses in an early round.

Outook: Like last year, the top four ranked teams in the California top 20 are the top four seeds in this division. Everybody is going crazy for Chino Hills sharpshooter LaMelo Ball, and rightfully so. He is worth the price of admission every night. The best player in Southern California, though, is Sierra Canyon junior Marvin Bagley III, who is 6-foot-11, sometimes plays like he is 6-5, but never forgets he is 6-11 and should be an inside guy. That’s sort of rare these days, that a big guy understands he must play like a big guy for his team to win. JSerra has to play a first-round game at The Circus – Chino Hills. Chino Hills can overwhelm a good opponent, and JSerra is a good opponent. JSerra’s excellent forward, Sebastian Much, is trying to play through a severely sprained thumb. Bol Bol, who is 7-foot or 7-3, depending upon whom you ask, makes Mater Dei better, of course. But the Monarchs seem to lack that go-to shooter who can consistently make the 12- to 20-foot jump shot. Esperanza has Orange County’s best player, Kezie Okpala, and Brendan Harrick, who is also a fine player. But Santa Margarita has more scoring options and overall size, so the Eagles should beat Esperanza in their first-round game at Santa Margarita on Friday. In last year’s Open Division semifinals, Sierra Canyon beat Bishop Montgomery and Chino Hills beat Mater Dei. Look for a repeat this year.

Final 4: Sierra Canyon, Bishop Montgomery, Mater Dei, Chino Hills

Champion: Sierra Canyon

DIVISION 1AA

Top seeds: 1. Etiwanda; 2. St. John Bosco; 3. Santa Monica; 4. Sonora

Outook: One of the larger quirks in CIF-SS sports is that the best teams sometimes don’t get treated as such in the playoffs. Etiwanda is the top-seeded team in this division but must play a first-round away game at Beverly Hills. Second-seeded St. John Bosco must play at Santa Barbara in the first round. Three O.C. schools have a good shot at winning this division – Edison, Los Alamitos and Sonora. All three have excellent on-court chemistry and splendid coaches. Edison lost to Los Alamitos last week, but Edison was not healthy. Senior guard Randall Walker was among the Chargers’ ill players and it showed. Los Alamitos needs junior forward Jake Eyman, who seems to like blocking shots more than making them, to be on his game fire every time he is on the floor. Sonora relies on outside shooting, which can come and go for a high school team. Edison has a tough road – a first-round home game against Inglewood, then a second-round game at Tahquitz which is out there in Hemet. If Edison gets through that …

Outook: This division has a dandy Orange County matchup in the first round – El Toro at Corona del Mar. Corona del Mar should win, but El Toro had a good final regular-season week, so watch out. San Clemente won the championship of a tough league, the South Coast League, but would have to play at La Cañada in the second round. Harvard-Westlake is better than its 16-11 record suggests. The Wolverines played a tough schedule. Their 6-6 sophomore, Cassius Stanley, is very good.

Outook: Some good Orange County teams are in this division, and there three good-looking Orange County games in the first round: Woodbridge at Cypress, Yorba Linda at Buena Park and Newport Harbor at Northwood. Cypress and Northwood should win their first-round games, but that Yorba Linda-Buena Park contest is a tad perplexing because Buena Park sometimes loses games it should win. Villa Park would be an Open Division team if Evan Battey could play, but he used up his eight semesters of athletic eligibility before this season. That’s a nice piece of coaching Kevin Reynolds has done with the Spartans (20-6), and some good on-court leadership and play from brothers Myles and Julian Franklin. Windward seems to have an edge over the rest in the athleticism department.

Outook: Capistrano Valley has the best shot among Orange County teams of winning this one. The Cougars might have trouble with taller teams. Rancho Christian of Temecula is one of those taller teams. Their best players, though, are sophomores, 6-9 Isaiah Mobley and 6-7 Solomon Davis,and Rancho Christian moves up substantially in class after winning Division 5A last year. Still, it might take this one.

Outook: Saddleback Valley Christian senior guard Trey Smith, among Orange County’s leading scorers, only recently returned to action after missing several games because of knee tendinitis. Any basketball player who has had knee tendinitis knows it’s a lot worse than it sounds. Smith is as important to Saddleback Valley Christian’s chances as any player is to any O.C. playoff team. Crean Lutheran has two players that can carry the Saints a long way, Tim Ghita, who plays bigger than his 6-4 stature, and Michael Bagatourian. Ocean View is a hidden gem. The Seahawks rarely get challenged in the Golden West League, so one wonders how they will do once they face playoff competition. If Crean Lutheran plays defense like it can and shoots consistently, it can win this division.

Top seeds: 1. Hesperia; 2. St. Paul of Santa Fe Springs; 3. St. Anthony of Long Beach; 4. Adelanto

Outook: Pacifica and Savanna are the only O.C. teams in this division. Pacifica had a strong December then went 1-9 in the Empire League. Savanna has high-scoring Romulo Howard, but probably not enough elsewhere on the roster to win a CIF-SS title. Hesperia has had two great games against Mojave River League rival Oak Hills, both of which Hesperia won by two points. Could there be a rematch in the final?

Outook: The Garden Grove League is a terrific basketball league because it’s an old-fashioned basketball league. Teams play hard-nosed defense, they pass and catch the basketball in textbook fashion, and their shot selection is good. All of that can compensate for size deficiency for a while but eventually some bigger team is going to be too much. West Torrance lost regular-season games to Foothill and Cypress. Woodcrest Christian finished second in the Ambassador League, which is a decent hoops league.

Final 4: West Torrance, Bolsa Grande, Woodcrest Chr., Blair

Champion: Blair

DIVISION 4A

Top seeds: 1. Notre Dame of Riverside; 2. Pacific of San Bernardino; 3. Shalhevet of Los Angeles; 4. St. Margaret’s

Outook: St. Margaret’s finished second behind Crean Lutheran in the Academy League. The Tartans, who have one of the county’s better scorers in Tyler Horgan, lost at Crean by three points. They could get far in this division. Notre Dame is the best team in this division and could advance to the finals via a string of lopsided scores.

Outook: This is a 16-team bracket. Teams only have to win three games to get to the championship game. Fairmont Prep, champion of the Express League, would have to play Holy Martyrs in the quarterfinals. Rolling Hills Prep is coached by former longtime Fairfax of Los Angeles coach Harvey Kitani. He knows how to get a team ready for a big game.

Outook: Six teams have first-round byes in this division, including the top four seeded teams. Tarbut V’Torah is the only Orange County team in this division. TVT has had basketball success in the past, but this team is not as good as the school’s teams of 10 or so years ago. Coast Union, which has only lost to larger schools like Santa Barbara, could roll through this division.

Outook: One outstanding player can make a big difference for a team in a lower division like Division 6. Pacifica Christian has that type of player, freshman point guard Dominick Harris. He will lead the Tritons deep into this division. Carnegie, though, is the best overall team in this group. It beat Corona del Mar this season.

Steve Fryer covers high school sports at the Orange County Register. He writes a weekly column on the county high school sports scene and also covers games and writes features. Steve also writes a weekly column that covers pro and college sports, and other topics. Steve does concert reviews for the Register, too, when time permits. Steve's first byline appeared in the Register in 1979. He was in the inaugural class inducted into the Santa Ana Unified School District Sports Hall of Fame. Steve also is in the Southern California Interscholastic Basketball Coaches Hall of Fame, and was the first journalist to receive the Contribution to Education award from the Orange County Department of Education. Steve was honored as Champion for Character by the CIF-Southern Section.

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