Even though no well-known Republican has formally announced his or her intention to run for president in 2012, it seems that the GOP establishment has made its choice.

And the winner is … Mitt Romney.

That’s how Republicans roll. It’s all about whose turn it is to run for president. In 1996, it was Sen. Bob Dole’s turn. In 2008, it was Sen. John McCain’s. And next year, according to some, it should be Romney’s.

Appearing recently on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., suggested that Romney was the person to beat – only Graham didn’t show much enthusiasm.

“Mitt Romney has his problems as a candidate, but so does everyone else,” Graham said.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement. But Graham wasn’t asked who he is supporting. He was asked to name the frontrunner, and he picked Romney.

A stronger endorsement came earlier. In November, on CNN’s “Larry King Live,” former President George H.W. Bush was asked who he would like to see atop the Republican ticket in 2012. He said that while his first choice would obviously be his son Jeb – the former Florida governor who says he is not interested in a White House bid – he thought Romney would make a “very good president.” Speaking on behalf of himself and former first lady Barbara Bush, the 41st president said: “We like Mitt Romney. We know him well and like him very much.”

For Republicans, there is a lot to like about Romney. He’s been through the wringer before, and he knows how to put together an organization to run for president. He has enormous personal wealth (estimated, in 2007, to be about $250 million), which never hurts. And even more importantly, the Harvard MBA who helped launch a private equity firm that now manages more than $65 billion in assets has the business acumen that many Americans are looking for during this time of economic uncertainty, high unemployment and ballooning national debt.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll found Romney in a dead heat with President Obama in a hypothetical matchup.

Yet, what’s going to make the 2012 Republican primaries so much fun to watch is that Romney by no means has his party’s nomination locked up. In fact, as Graham said, he has his share of “problems as a candidate” – problems that might be severe enough to prevent him from winning the nomination.

Back to the videotape. While he declared Romney the GOP frontrunner, Graham also said this: “It’s a changing environment. And the one thing you got to prove to the people of South Carolina is not only are you conservative, but you can carry the day.” From that comment, we can infer that Graham isn’t yet sure that Romney can get the job done. And when King asked Bush if Romney was in keeping with the Bush political stance, the former president quipped that he didn’t want to “kill him off” by characterizing him this way. That’s an admission that 2012 might not be an especially good year for moderates.

Besides, as many pundits have noted, Romney isn’t popular with the tea party, which we can expect will have a major say about who gets the GOP presidential nomination. Also, having been zinged by McCain during one debate in 2008 as “the candidate of change” for allegedly flipping his positions, Romney is still seen by many Republicans as inauthentic – at a time when voters are craving sincerity and realism. And, of course, while serving as governor of Massachusetts, Romney signed a health care reform law that is just similar enough to what Republicans deride as “Obamacare” to hurt his credibility on the issue with some conservative voters.

Even one of Romney’s major selling points – his success in the business world – could become a liability. That’s how the story played out in California where Republicans Meg Whitman, the former eBay chief executive who sought the governorship, and Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who ran for the U.S. Senate, were both tagged by labor unions as part of the greedy corporate culture that lays off workers rather than lose profits.

You get the picture. The Republican establishment could be in for a big surprise. While Mitt Romney might be ready to lead the Republican Party, it still might be the case that Republicans aren’t ready to follow.