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GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared

In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower. Let’s investigate the details and compare the current estimates.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.6 Percent — April 14, 2017

The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2017:Q1 and 2.1% for 2017:Q2.

Incoming data during the week lead to a reduction of the nowcast by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point for 2017:Q1 and 2017:Q2, respectively.

The changes in the nowcast were mainly driven by a negative surprise from retail sales.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 0.5 Percent — April 14, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.5 percent on April 14, down from 0.6 percent on April 7. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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O/T
Seville procession witnesses several stampedes, so far seems agit was local coordinated with people shouting for the local snackbar, banging containers, yelling ETA slogans… still not clear ethnic or motive

lol and that’s after borrowing …..wait for it 600 billion in the first 6 months,and that’s just the amount they admit too,real deficit is double that (triple),and with the dept ceiling,moar war,soaring red ink,trump in a pickle

Read same on Malaga airport, Gib. border. Saying it is not aimed at Brits. or specific Gib. dispute, but majority delayed are British ( as they are the main extra EU in transit) . Part of frontex new law verifying ID before exit of EU…Spain so disorganised might be part true even.

Since the Great Recession retail sales in March have been lower than February 4 out of 9 times: in 2009, 2013, 2016, and now. Year on year retail sales are up $415B in Mar 17 vs. $393B in Mar 16. This looks pretty good to me.

Despite leading in the polls for Round One, The Express reports that a monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.

The election has become extremely close with just 4.5 percentage points separating Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon, and Le Pen…

Which is why this shocking error in election procedures could be the swing to crush Le Pen’s hopes. As The Express reports, half a million people received duplicate polling cards in the post, which would allow them to cast two votes at the first round of the election, held on April 23.

French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place.

So much for all the money that has been thrown at this mess since 2008. It may be time to dust off the term “the new normal” a reference created after the 2008 financial crisis to describe an economy mired in slow growth. The term has not been used much lately but has become the reality we face. Something that should make people concerned is that grinding stagflation is on the horizon.

A strong case can be made that the economy is about to stall under strong headwinds as the burden of past debts and future promises made to those retiring and unable to find good jobs begins to weigh heavily upon society. The article below delves into the idea of slow growth coupled with stagflation.

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