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The mechanics of that move on the ES where delta went up as price moved down is that people were going short with limit orders. Whilst the majority of traders with market orders were longs, limit orders were absorbing that buying. Now - the odd thing about yesterday is that the quantity of limit orders generally was extremely low but as I mentioned this does occur more in less liquid/more volatile markets. So absorption should have stood out a mile.

For the "thinner market theory" - take a trader like myself that lets it get to an area and then goes in with a market order on the ES. When it gets to my spot if I see a sign that it is being held but at that point, if I am right, it is almost pointless to try getting in with a limit order 'cause the more right I am the less likely I will get a fill.

If I were to trade CL, there would not be such a need to hit into a trade with a market order even with my style of trading because the extra volatility would most likely see you swept into a position if you went in with a limit order and got a few ticks price improvement.

So - yesterday on ES, it would have been one of 2 things:

1 - Sellers quietly absorbing the buying with limit orders on the offer.
2 - Just a feature of the increased volatility/reduced

If it was number 1, then they were pretty damn stealthy about it. Here's the footprint from that period:

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Hard to call, really. If that was people quietly offloading to unsuspecting buyers - they did an absolutely fantastic job about doing it subtly.

Back on 25th July, my thoughts were that we'd probably be looking at one of the following scenarios as likely:

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And right now we are here:

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One of those scenarios - the bounce off 1670 upwards happened shortly afterwards and now we are looking potentially at the other scenario playing out - the lower bounce back up.

The relevance of the area we are in now is more pronounced if we look at the daily chart too.

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You can see that in June , we had the 1650 area as the top of range for a short while. We went down to 1550 and then broke out the top of the 1650 level to go and make new highs. At this point, I'm looking for this 1650 level to hold and a move back up to the highs. If it breaks, then I'll be looking at a move down to 1600 and possible 1550.

In short, I think the market is exhibiting range-bound behavior but I'm open minded about the boundaries. Short term I believe that if 1650 breaks decisively (not the 2 ticks we have had) then we should have good volatility on the day it does. If we move up from 1650, I don't see any reason it should do so hastily, although there will be some trapped shorts off the bottom but I think that will be short lived.

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In terms of last week, value is above us but it's a double distribution with the lower distribution being 1649.50 - 1666 (not far from the 1666.50 we have been watching). As we move up, we should expect it to be quite thick through the VPOC of that lower distribution area (57.25 -> 58.75) and it may simply roll back down as it gets towards the top of that area if that lower distribution area does turn out to be value building out. If it gets up through the top of this area, it should move cleanly to the upper distribution area where we will probably see chop again.

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On the daily profile, we are within yesterdays range in the Globex session, at the low end of value and very close to the close. That really doesn't give us much in terms of an opening move, although the value area from Friday is a point of interest.

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Following on from yesterdays prep, we still haven't really resolved whether we are going to bounce up from this 1650 area or move down, potentially going back to 1600, then 1550. As I mentioned yesterday, I think people will jump on a decisive move to the downside but even though we did push down, it doesn't really look decisive. Either way, even if we head down to 1550, this is still nothing more than one big range. It's not a bear market right now IMO.

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What is interesting here is that we have 'flipped' around 1650 area. I use the word 'flip' as a friend of mine calls these area 'flip pivots'. Another way of describing it is "support becomes resistance". Another way of thinking about it is "a lot of people are watching this area". As you can see we did have a little bounce up yesterday before that failed and we dropped 17 points down to 42.25. Now in the Globex session we've been up to 49.75 and now we bounced off that.

From where I sit, this is an early line in the sand for us to test today. If we are to continue up, we need to get back up through 1650 and this time hold it as support - so 'flip' around the level again.

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In terms of the profile, we spent the most time in todays Globex session around at yesterdays close. We've moved into yesterdays value area and so on the open, the bulls need to get it into yesterdays value area 47.50 and then crack the 50's with conviction. The bears need to grind it down. I think that people will be ready to jump on a failure either side.

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We are still holding around the 1650 level with pushes up to 56.75 and down to 41. Not much more to say about that that we didn't already say in the past few days. Today is FOMC day, which usually means a slow morning. A few weeks back, Bernanke mentioned that they might stop certain easing measures and the market took a dive. The FED then backtracked on that and we went up again. So I imagine the resolution of this 1650 area will come in the form of a decision either way from the FED.

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In terms of the weekly picture, they sky is obviously not falling in at this point. A move down to 1550 or 1470 would also not be massive in the grand scheme of things either.

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The hourly chart doesn't add much more other than we are waltzing around 1650.

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We have poked into the value area of the lower distribution from last week. I still think a poke above this will see us put in a decent move upwards.

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And on the daily profiles - just sticking in the range! So as of now, we don't really have that many levels to play off other than this 2 day range 1641-1657. It might be like yesterday where a move develops in the middle of nowhere, so look for a failure to reach an extreme as well as the action around the opening price.

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I trade just the US morning session, so I missed the 'fun' you guys had - 10 points down, 18 points up all in the space of an hour before the market fell away into the close. There is always a chance that after a day like that, we bounce back up but I think a continues move down is more probable now we have solidly broken 1650.

The Fed is taking off the stabilizers and now the economy has to stand on it's own feet. We'll need continued good housing, retail, factory purchasing and employment numbers to see us move up from here.

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Whilst the ES will still likely put in tradable swings up and down, I'll be looking more for downside plays off yesterdays range/value to pay off. Todays Globex is quite a way into yesterdays value already but right now it's only 5:25 EST and so will see how we get on off the open.

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For the downside, we really want price to stay below the "bulge" in the profile above and to start developing value by trading 1632-1642 and lower.

So - whilst a snap back up is possible, I'm looking to the downside as an overall bias.

Regarding stabilizers.... I disagree, and feel the better the economy does the lower we trade, worst the economy does the higher.

This is the market the fed has created, and for it to stay in and prop up things need to not meet their growth targets.

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I think we'll see something along the lines of the fed telling us things are improving, even if they aren't, met with tapering, met with selling, but then a new QE of some sort with a different focus/objective will step in to "target" a weakness, and market will rejoice once more.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.2) Start a journaland post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.