Initial 2018 projections - issues and comments thread

Hi Ray - Really enjoyed the PDF of the Baseball Forecaster - Thank you. But I have 3 questions. (1) What day in December do you anticipate the first preliminary projections to be out? (2) When in January do you expect to start up with the Facts/Flukes column? (3) You posted the first installment of the Dynasty Reload - Catchers on 11/17 but have not come out with the next installment - when do you anticipate that to happen? Thank you very much.

- Dynasty Reload: will resume early this week.
- Facts/Flukes: those will return (prob once a week initially) sometime in December, then stay weekly until right after the Super Bowl.
- Projections: mid-December here on the site... I'm targeting 12/15, but since that's winter meetings week, it may take me until early the following week to catch up on player movement.

Yes, I'm working on them right now offline, while our tech guys are prepping the site for the new year. Planning to upload sometime this weekend... then it's usually a day or two of cleanup to get them stabilized. (There's only so much verification I can do offline.)

So, you'll see them pop up in the course of this weekend, but probably Monday/Tuesday before I'd trust them.

The 2018 Forecaster comments are now posted in Playerlink. So there's something you can have fun with right now.

The biggest part of this process is archiving the 2017 data... that actually involves rebuilding our stats archive all the way back to 2002. That was running overnight and is still running. Once that's done, I'll be able to upload initial projections and start cleaning them up.

Ray - Once the initial projections are uploaded onto the sight, how long would you recommend we wait to analyze the projections so you can clean up the initial projections?? In other words if the initial projections get loaded tonight when do you think we should start analyzing?? Thank you.

Once we have a good upload, I'll post a thread here with known issues, and let you guys add to it/comment, and I'll update as we address them. Some of those are always the same issues each December...

- QS projections will be wonky
- we won't have Holds projections set up yet
- DLDays will be missing for a few weeks
- we won't have ADP data til January
- a bunch of players with low projected PT won't have projections yet.
- I'm not exactly sure how Ohtani is going to work, but I think he'll only be projected as a pitcher for now, and we'll have to get him set up as a hitter a bit later.

But if you're willing to live with the known issues, you'll be able to work with the bulk of the data almost immediately... hopefully by first thing tomorrow.

Ray - Christmas for many of us just came about a week early. Thank you very much. You may want to check Shohei Ohtani's projection but everything looks great. Just like the stock market - under promise and over deliver. I was surprised to see the projections uploaded as I expected it to happen tomorrow. This was a pleasant surprise - if Baseball HQ was a publicly traded company the stock would be up 12% in the after market.