All these hugh numbers for new NB-airplanes from Air Asia, Lion Air, Ryanair, Easyjet, etc, etc, etc. We are almost getting used to them but 10 years ago that number would have made huge waves in the aviation world. Now we are just picking it up here on A-net. Times do change.

Maybe if FR wants the the aircraft delivered in 2019-2020, however they want them in 2015-2017. Currently there are 2000 NGs still to be delivered (4 years of production). Moreover 2012 has seen the highest number of NG orders ever, so I guess it will be pretty hard to convincw Boeing to give them a bargain price again...

Quoting Chiad (Reply 3):I don't know if they are good for anyone, including air framers, employees nor passenger

It's a good thing. Good for the jobs market, good for employees because expansion = demand, good for Boeing (as long as they don't sell them at silly prices again), and good for passengers who want to fly with them. If you don't want to then it doesn't affect you. A big order like this in Europe is a win-win-win, hopefully we'll see it appear soon.

Quoting PH-BFA (Reply 14):Currently there are 2000 NGs still to be delivered (4 years of production).

That's not a problem at all, Boeing will be delighted to get more NG orders to bridge the 2015-2018 gap. If you look at the orderbook, there are some soft orders, like 46 737-700s for Aviation Capital Group ACG and 127 700s for Southwest, probably also some of the 75 for ALC (Air Lease Corporation), no way they will (all) be built, some will eventually be converted to later MAX orders. Same way that United is quietly converting their old 700/900 orders to later MAX-es.
Really, there are still 261 open 737-700 orders but seeing how unpopular the aircraft was in the last 2 years, my bet is that there will only be 20 more built of these at the most, not 261.

This is the usual FR manipulation of the media, which have either too short attention span or are just plain stupid enough to play along. "Boeing have plenty of availability in the order book," Mr O'leary said. "We are in the fairly early stages of talks to see if we can reach an agreement on price."
So basically nothing new, they have been at this early stage for what, 2 years? Airbus told them to shove it, they do not want to be used as a leverage against Boeing and Boeing does not want to be "raped" again.
Other thean the usual Goebbelesque propaganda by the O'Clown himself about supposedly being "inundated" by request from airports to deal with his low-class airline and taking cheap shots at SAS and LOT... what REALLY new is there to report?

Nowhere did that article say they ordered the Max. The article mentions the 737-800 totaling to 300 planes, and a delivery timeframe (2015-2017) when the Max is introduced, but the article doesn't say that they went with the Max.

Quoting airboe (Reply 10):And that makes a lot of sense to me, - BCA need to fill the orderbook to bridge the production until the MAX is up and running out of the doors.

From the way the current order book looks, and the way that airlines seem to be seeking new planes that they can get soon, I doubt that Boeing will have to submit to any more "raping" to keep the assembly lines running, unless the whole world economy tanks (a really definite possibility), in which case everyone will be in trouble and all bets will be off. According to what I have read, the issue holding up a deal between MOL and Boeing has not been price but MOL's right to resell the aircraft. I recall MOL making a statement in the past that they agreed on price but Boeing was insisting that Ryanair could not resell the aircraft before a certain time, and MOL was objecting. The article says nothing about that.

Quoting flood (Reply 6): This as opposed to Lion Air, where I'm not quite as optimistic

Lion Air has ordered a total of 408 NG/MAX planes. They have already recieved 79 of them. Beginning in Sept 2011, they began taking them at a rate of 2 per month.... At that rate, 24 per year, It would take them to late 2026 to take all of the planes. As these newer planes come in and are slated for replacement of earlier xisting aircraft, rather than route expansion, we can expect the delivery rate to increase somewhat. So, it is foreseable that Lion Air could have all of these planes before 2025 in reality.

Ryan Air ordered their first 737s directly from boeing in 1998. It has taken them all the way to 2013 (14-15 years) to receive the aircraft. Some 348 planes. (I think they also picked up used frames on the open market at some point didn't they? But that is another discussion.)

For all the fears that Boeing might or might not get "raped" again, it is worth remembering that Boeing and Ryanair did agree to a price the last time they decided to talk seriously.

The reason no deal was done is because they couldn't agree on other contractual terms, specifically Ryanair wanted the right to resell the aircraft far earlier than Boeing was willing to let them. In essence Ryanair wanted to dump them on the used market as soon as any type of significant maintenance was due but Boeing wasn't willing to let barely-used aircraft compete with brand-new aircraft...

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 27):For all the fears that Boeing might or might not get "raped" again, it is worth remembering that Boeing and Ryanair did agree to a price the last time they decided to talk seriously.

And ten years on what was once "rape" is now "foreplay" - as in just about anyone ordering a score or more 737NGs can expect 50% off the list price.

When the last of the current order was delivered, I wondered what the FR plan would be. They have gone from 2(ish) new 738s per month to zero so the average age of the fleet is now increasing far quicker (unless they rapidly shrink by selling older 738s and not taking any replacements).

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 20):They like to buy cheap.
I can see them taking a lot of thr very last B737NGs off the line.

I think this is likely to be the FR game plan: Make Boeing an offer it doesn't really like but can't refuse for the last 200 738NGs (or 200 of the last 400) because no other airlines will want them (everyone else will want MAXs).

Quoting Semaex (Reply 28):Where the heck do they get all those pilots from? 200 aircraft are easily 1000 pilots!

FR can easily hire 1,000 pilots over a few years if they want. There are enough prospective/unemployed/student pilots to fill the void. FR's a good airline to fly for and anyone (at least, any low hour pilot - and they really only hire low hour pilots, through the CAE SSTR scheme) would be stupid to turn down an opportunity with them. Believe me, finding the crew won't be an issue (although they may have to increase some T&Cs if they want rapid expansion).

Quoting ely747 (Reply 30):Not quite sure who should I feel more sorry for ... Pax or Boeing

How about neither? Boeing will only sell if they're happy, and pax will only fly if they want to.

Quoting sirtoby (Reply 12):Boeing has about 1000 slots to fill for the NG until the MAX takes over full production in 2020 maybe - so I guess Ryanait will (again) get a good pricing level for these aircraft.

Maybe if FR wants the the aircraft delivered in 2019-2020, however they want them in 2015-2017. Currently there are 2000 NGs still to be delivered (4 years of production). Moreover 2012 has seen the highest number of NG orders ever, so I guess it will be pretty hard to convincw Boeing to give them a bargain price again...

I have to agree that FR went for early delivery. Later delivery would have great pricing. These... will be good.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 33):finding the crew won't be an issue (although they may have to increase some T&Cs if they want rapid expansion).

I expect FR has already done the math and will pick up their pilots at the current or a slightly improved pay scale. How many would be replacements anyway? I think it will be more like 400 to 700 pilots.

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 32):Make Boeing an offer it doesn't really like but can't refuse for the last 200 738NGs (or 200 of the last 400) because no other airlines will want them (everyone else will want MAXs).

Even at a small profit, it is worth it for Boeing. FR needs aircraft, but this gives them the supply to negotiate harder for their last few hundred NGs and first few hundred MAXs.

Who buys used FR 738s? I'm sure there is a market, I would like to know the homes.

Do they really need 200 more aircraft? The current age of the 737-800s must be about 5 years old. Many are parked in the winter due to lack of demand/over capacity. Where are they going to place 200 more NBs? I know they are planning to keep a young, maintenance cheap fleet but it's a while until the current fleet will need replacing. They are making a good profit and have a very slick operation (regardless of the passenger experience!!) so I think they will wait until they get a great price on the MAX or NEO in several years.

Quoting airboe (Reply 10):Delivery in 2015/16/17 - so it is not the MAX.

Correct, this is not a B-737MAX order, if it materializes.

FR likes to fly their B-738s for several years, then sell them for more than they originally paid Boeing for them. That is what has Boeing upset. I am sure Boeing will demand a claus in the next contract that FR cannot sell the new airplanes for more than they paid Boeing for them.

Boeing might also let FR switch some of these orders to B-737-8MAX/-9MAX later at a reasonable price increase ove the B-738NG models. That will be what MOL really wants for the later delivered airplanes.

Hopefully someone can help me out on this one. Many members continuously state that Boeing got rapped on the FR deal yet the Air Asia deal for 320s and 737 WN deal included almost identical discounts - how come the discrepancy ? I'm legitimately asking ...

I would never trust a financial analyst. After all half the job function is about crystal balling what might (not) happen.

But looking at the natural logic of future expansion of the air travel market with increasing global wealth, it will mean more civilian aircraft. (However military contracts (especially US & European) for Boeing may an area where they might suffer).

Quoting WAC (Reply 44):I would never trust a financial analyst. After all half the job function is about crystal balling what might (not) happen.

But looking at the natural logic of future expansion of the air travel market with increasing global wealth, it will mean more civilian aircraft. (However military contracts (especially US & European) for Boeing may an area where they might suffer).

Please feel free to do the Math yourself! Start with the production increases across the whole commercial line of aircraft.. And then offer your opinion as to how Boeing will / cannot make their numbers?

As mentioned earlier, FR are quick to phase out their frames. 3 or 4 year old aircraft is relatively new. Taking into account the discount FR gets ( away with) from Boeing for buying in bulk, you find out that price per unit is far below what woluld someone else paid for ordering one or two new machines.

Quoting mffoda (Reply 45):Please feel free to do the Math yourself! Start with the production increases across the whole commercial line of aircraft.. And then offer your opinion as to how Boeing will / cannot make their numbers?

Well I did not say that they would not make their numbers.
I just dispute your affirmation that analysts opinions are the foundation of fact.
I said that the civilian side will mostly likely to grow however their lucrative and biggest share of revenues from defense contracts will likely drop.

Analysts are like the media, they love to exaggerate.

This is not just my opinion. Warren Buffett is also a critic of them along with many top financial experts,

Back on the topic. Most likely that FR will need more than 200 airplanes. FR are very good at what they do. Being cut throat and to the point.

Quoting ely747 (Reply 46):As mentioned earlier, FR are quick to phase out their frames. 3 or 4 year old aircraft is relatively new.

Although the info I have is not up to date, as of mid 2011 their oldest airplanes were 7 years old and all those past 7 had been sold--which at that time was a little over 20 airplanes. They're not getting rid of 3 or 4 year old airplanes.

As mentioned earlier, FR are quick to phase out their frames. 3 or 4 year old aircraft is relatively new. Taking into account the discount FR gets ( away with) from Boeing for buying in bulk, you find out that price per unit is far below what woluld someone else paid for ordering one or two new machines.

[Edited 2013-01-11 15:39:11]

I'm going to have to throw the BS flag on this one! (DISCOUNT!!!)

Please provide proof (one example) that either OEM is / or is not doing the same thing?

My proof... If you wish to call it that??

Example:

"Airbus had quoted $ 41.28 million for a narrow-body aircraft and $ 92.84 million for the wide-body variant at the time of MoU signing."

The above is a prefect example of a 2009/10 potential sale for one WB and one NB aircraft, form a very small (tiny, Almost unknown) airline. Which BTW, was securing unbelievable terms for 1 of this and 1 of that financial consideration.

Thanks for the update. Some machines are kept longer obviously. There is a shot somewhere in the photo album of a former FR 737-8 flying over eastern Africa. Sorry can't recall the name of the carrier now. The plane was less than 4 year old and fully fitted with the new airline's interior. I am very sure Mr. O'Leary makes some serious cash by sending those frames to secondary market more than any other airline.

All I was referring to was the fact that if Boeing did not offer such a huge discount to FR, second hand market would probably be more encourage to look for new frames directly from Boeing rather than buying from FR. At Southwest planes are being kept longer in the fleet. Went to maintenance base at PHX and had an opportunity to see the one of the older 737 being worked on. But then, Southwest is a budget airline with a difference, FR cattle train service doesn't belong to that class with Southwest.

Quoting ely747 (Reply 51):There is a shot somewhere in the photo album of a former FR 737-8 flying over eastern Africa. Sorry can't recall the name of the carrier now. The plane was less than 4 year old and fully fitted with the new airline's interior.

I'd be interested to know who that was. The ETH one was 7 years old and all the rest went to China, Russia, or India for the most part but my data doesn't show the lasst year nad a half--but that would make it really new.