Box Office Predictions – July 2017

June gave us the first great DC Cinematic Universe film – Wonder Woman – as well as yet another chapter in Michael Bay’s Transformers series of films. In July, Marvel Studios has teamed up with Sony to bring us Spider-Man: Homecoming, before Christopher Nolan’s first war film – Dunkirk – hits theaters.

“It’s just another reboot.” — I’ve heard that line a lot, when people have discussed the chance to see another Spider-Man movie. While most people liked Andrew Garfield in the role, his Spider-Man films weren’t particularly well-loved, and I’d even say that there hasn’t been a good Spider-Man solo film since Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man 2 back in 2004.

I’ll be seeing Spider-Man: Homecoming in a couple of hours and I am very much excited about it. He is probably my favorite superhero of all-time, but I’m not sure it’ll get as close to $120 million as I know some people have said it will.

I think War for the Planet of the Apes is going to have a tough time this summer, I’m just not sure people are excited for it. Nobody is excited about The Emoji Movie, but when it comes out it’ll have been a long time since Despicable Me 3, so maybe young kids will love the film.

I am worried about Dunkirk, though. Although Christopher Nolan is a great director, I don’t think the marketing for it has been particularly great, and I’m not sure a big portion of American audiences will want to watch a World War Two-movie that doesn’t include American soldiers.

It was a great surprise to see Wonder Woman have a remarkably strong opening weekend. In fact, it is the only ‘positive surprise’ of the month. It actually had a stronger opening weekend than the critically acclaimed Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which I really did not see coming.

But that was the one happy surprise of the month. Rough Night, Despicable Me 3, and Transformers: The Last Knight all underperformed. I stopped thinking about the Transformers films after Shia LaBeouf left the franchise, and it seems like North American audiences are starting to lose interest as well.

THE BILLION DOLLAR CLUB:

Beauty and the Beast – Disney – $1,259 billion

The Fate of the Furious – Universal – $1,238 billionBox office totals as of July 6th, 2017

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 has slowed down and there is absolutely no chance that it will become a member of the Billion Dollar Club. Neither will Wonder Woman, even though it has had a fantastic month.

Although I’ve previously been pretty optimistic for Despicable Me 3, the numbers for it thus far are making me pessimistic right about now. Now, what about Transformers: The Last Knight? Both Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction made a billion dollars worldwide, but The Last Knight isn’t doing so well in North America.