Political Quirks - D66

The Amsterdam coalition

Last week the Amsterdam negotiations finally succeeded. The capital will be governed by a coalition of D66, VVD, and SP. The PvdA, which was part of the coalition from 1946 on, has been banished to the opposition, as was its loyal wing lieutenant GL. Also, the VVD has agreed to work with the SP, a combination that so far was ruled not impossible, but very, very unlikely.

Amsterdam formation — the sequel

The local Amsterdam formation, which I last reported on a month ago, has taken some strange turns. In the last installment we saw that big winner D66 was talking with GL in order to come to an agreement, after which a third party would be invited to join the nascent coalition. This has not happened.

Amsterdam update

The situation in the Amsterdam formation has changed: where previously D66+VVD+SP was considered because PvdA and GL had formed a block, GL has now broken that block and ditched the PvdA. In return, D66 ditched the VVD and now talks exclusively with GL.

The Amsterdam formation

Like in all Dutch cities and communities, Amsterdam is in the throes of local negotiations to form the new city government. In Amsterdam D66 won a surprisingly large victory, 7 to 14 seats, while traditional power party PvdA dropped from 15 to 10. Thus D66 has the initiative, and Rinnooy Kan, a D66 member who was previously chairman of the prestigious Social-Economic Council, was appointed informer.

Today he unveiled his first report: at the moment it seems we’re headed for a surprising D66+SP+VVD coalition. This is not yet final; anything can change, and it’s not a combination local politics watchers considered likely, but it’s where we are now. Source: Parool.

Local elections 2014

Yesterday local elections were held, and the results for the coalition parties are disastrous. In itself that’s nothing new — coalition partners generally lose seats in elections, but there are a few twists.

Broadly speaking, the PvdA lost disastrously, and the VVD rather less so. D66 was the big winner, followed by the SP and small christian CU and SGP. The CDA lost seats but not nearly as many as was predicted.

My grand theory of Dutch politics

Back in the good old days there were three parties: PvdA on the left, CDA in the centre, and VVD on the right.

From 1946 to 1994 the CDA (and its predecessor parties) sat in government and decided on a case-by-case basis whether to form a coalition with PvdA or VVD. Then the CDA itself started to belong to the right but that didn’t change its position in politics. It could go over left, and did so occasionally just to remind the VVD.

Party profile — D66

The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore, just like in 2010, I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of winning seats. We’ll go from smallest to largest.

A spectacular week

This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.

Purple-plus becomes “necessary”

Well, it seems VVD leader Rutte is no longer rejecting the Purple-Plus VVD+PvdA+D66+GL coalition. Commentators expect the next few days of Tjeenk Willink’s informership to be spent on exploring this possibility further.

Know your coalitions — Centre-left

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections
it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them
from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do
I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

How to discuss coalition preferences

D66 leader Pechtold gives a brilliant example of how to discuss your coalition preferences without actually discussing your coalition preferences. This is the bit the Brits should practice before switching to a new electoral system.

In an interview Pechtold proposed that parties would state their coalition preferences before the elections. Thus voters would know what they’d get when they vote for a party.

Where we stand now

In the past six weeks or so I haven’t been as active on this blog as I’d planned, but in the end this is a personal side project that I either have time for or don’t. Fortunately the past weeks were also relatively quiet on the political front. The local elections have run their course, and the parties are now gearing up for the general elections.

The campaign will start in two weeks or so, because late April/early May features a few Dutch-only holidays: Queen’s Day on 30 April, Remembrance Day on 4 May, and Liberation Day on 5 May. (The latter two both celebrate our liberation from the nazis in 1945). Besides, there’s a two-week school holiday right now, and many voters are abroad on some beach or so. Little sense in starting up your campaign now.

Negotiations to watch — Amsterdam

When I started the Negotiations to Watch series I didn’t think the Amsterdam negotiations would bear watching. However, they have evolved into a curious situation that has the potential to hurt D66.

So an extra Amsterdam bulletin is in order. Besides, monitoring such negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.

Know your coalitions — Purple

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections
it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them
from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do
I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Negotiations to watch — Den Haag

It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag.
All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s
PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.

Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this
blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.

Know your coalitions — Centre-right

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections
it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them
from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do
I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Know your coalitions — Left

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections
it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them
from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do
I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

New Peil.nl poll

Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD
also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer
the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates
but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD)
wins one seat from each of the flanks.

On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively
between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the
second-largest party of the country.

The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and
is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.

An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.

Know your coalitions — overview

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections
it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them
from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do
I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the
five most likely coalitions.

The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll
in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each
from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll,
but does win two seats.

The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week.
Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA.
It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.

New Peil.nl poll

The most important change is that the PvdA continues to win (+3 this week), and that
the incrowd parties PvdA, CDA, VVD, and D66 combined also win (+4 together). The latter is odd
for Peil.nl, which generally tends to give extreme and small parties more seats than its competitors
do.

In general Peil.nl is moving to the numbers the Politieke Barometer gives.
Still, it’s too early to tell whether this means a true change in the electorate or a
random fluctuation.

Party profile — D66

The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners;
especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series
that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections.
We’ll go from largest to smallest.

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer,
in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve
foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.