Daily bits of my life. Friday pictures. And a neverending series of reading projects.

Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Forecasting 2024 Olympic Site

An interesting article on Toronto's decision to bid on the 2024 Olympic games. It's widely believed that the U.S. will have a leg up on the bidding simply because we haven't hosted an Olympics since Salt Lake City in 2002. The United States is the biggest sponsor of the games and brings in the biggest audience dollars. We haven't been shut out from hosting for more than 20 years since 1960. Many people think that we're simply due.
But not everyone:

“The way IOC does it, the games go to Europe, the Americas and then somewhere else,” Paul Henderson, former International Olympic Committee member and the Toronto 1996 bid chief, told the Toronto Sun.
“And what most people don’t realize is that the IOC considers North and
South America the same continent. Now there are always funny things
once in a while that change that, but normally that’s the thought
process.”

That doesn't line up as nicely as Mr Henderson suggests but there are some patterns there. Europe usually gets two or three hosting duties in a row and then other regions get a few. After the European cycle, the Americas have often hosted next but Beijing broke that cycle in 2008. If these patterns are correct, then 2022 or 2024 will feature a European host city and so will 2024 or 2026.
One big caveat here is that this isn't a natural pattern but one generated by a committee that hears bids. They won't be held by a tradition that Europe hosts multiple times in a row. My guess is that the U.S. should still be considered the front runner for 2024 but now I'm less certain.