A risk manager has identified that their hedge fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa. The hedge fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $100 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in these figures and that the normal cumulative density function at 1.644853627 is 95%.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar.

(a) Future portfolio values have a log-normal distribution. The mean (expected or arithmetic average) portfolio value in one year is $115,603,957.

(b) The median (50th percentile) portfolio value in one year is $115,603,957.

A risk manager has identified that their pension fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 5% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The mean (expected or arithmetic average) portfolio value in one year is $1,072,508. The median (50th percentile) portfolio value in one year is $1,051,271.

(b) The annual 99% relative VaR is $391,591.

(c) The annual 99% absolute VaR is $340,320.

(d) The 98% confidence interval of portfolio values in one year ##(V_1)## is ##\$659,680 < V_1 < \$1,675,312,977##.

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The median portfolio value in one year is $1,105,171. In one month it's $1,008,368.

(b) The mean portfolio value in one year is $1,197,217. In one month it's $1,015,113.

(c) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one year is $435,178.

(d) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one month is $933,016.

(e) The 98% confidence interval of portfolio values in two years is between $326,918 and $4,563,305.

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 90% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 95% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

A stock has an expected return of 10% pa and you're 90% sure that over the next year, the return will be between -15% and 35%. The stock's returns are normally distributed. Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

90% normal probability density function is 1.282.

95% normal probability density function is 1.645.

97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

What is the stock’s standard deviation of returns in percentage points per annum (pp pa)?