There were two political polls in February – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls has National 18% ahead of Labour in February, down 5% from January. The current seat projection is centre-right 62 seats, centre-left 51 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition has regained some support but Abbott’s net approval ratings have plummeted 28% in just one month after the spill against him. In NSW the incumbent coalition Government look likely to be re-elected.

In the United States the country mood has been improving in recent months, and Obama’s approval rating for economic management has improved. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while Jeb Bush is slightly ahead of the large pack seeking the Republican nomination.

In the UK Labour and the Conservatives are tied in the polls. However Labour is forecast to win more seats and to be able to form a Government with the SNP.

In Canada the Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals in terms of projected seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Wellington amalgamation, Islamic state, alcohol advertising and sponsorship plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

I only noticed this chart on Friday, but Andrew at Grumpolie looked at how the polls and polls of polls did, compared to the election result.

The Herald Digipoll was best overall. Of the poll of polls, the methodology I used did fairly well.

Not on the chart is how iPredict did. It was very accurate in 2011, but in 2014 was well out with a total error of 12.3%.

Overall the public polls under-estimated support for National and NZ First, were slightly too high for Labour and way too high for the Greens.

Andrew also made the point:

The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring – the polls that came closest only call landlines. It’s just one of many potential sources of error that pollster’s need to consider. Here’s another post about this, if anyone is interested in finding out why it’s not such a big deal.

In a statement on Wednesday, chief executive Steph Gundersen-Reid said their surveys showed 65 per cent supported the Local Government Commission’s draft proposal to create a Greater Wellington Council.

“We’ve listened to our members and engaged with the business community across the Wairarapa,” she said.

“Many of them support the proposal and understand that we must seize the opportunity to benefit the Wairarapa.”

Their surveys, conducted since December 2014, showed that most were in favour of some form of change to the current model.

A reader has e-mailed me some correspondence with the Chamber, which details they had a 20.6% response rate from their approx 220 members.

That means 45 replies.

The margin of error on 45 responses out of 220 for a 65% support is 12.5%.

To have the normal 95% confidence level, a sample of 136 would be needed. So the results are indicative but not conclusive.

There were two political polls in January – a Roy Morgan and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, up 3% from December. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 46 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition is 8% behind Labour as Abbott battles to remain Leader and Prime Minister.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating has improved but is still negative. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while the withdrawal of Mitt Romney sees no front runner for the Republicans.

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 1%.For the first time in some years they are no longer forecast to get a majority.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, but are projected to win slightly fewer seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on summer holiday dates and leadership attributes plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

And they’re also luxuriating in the new found popularity of their leader in the latest opinion poll which sees Andrew Little the most popular leader since Helen Clark. Given the other three incumbents since her, it’s hardly reason for popping the champagne corks just yet.

Andrew Little is not the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark. We’ve had several days of claims such as this, based on an incredibly modest poll result.

On one particular indicator (capable leader) he got a 54% rating. Yes that is 1% above Phil Goff’s initial rating. But being seen as capable is far from being proclaimed popular.

On the Preferred PM indicator which is the indicator of popularity, Little got 9.8%. Cunliffe was on 12.3%. Shearer made 12.6%. Goff made 12.4%. He is not the most popular. He is yet to poll higher than any of them.

Now don’t get me wrong. I think Little has had a solid start and is a capable leader. However proclaiming him as the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark is just daft. He isn’t (yet anyway). The public at best have an open mind on him.

His capable leader rating is basically the same as Goff started on. Goff them made a series of bad calls, and his ratings plummeted. Little’s challenge is to not do the same.

This is a projection of who may be in Parliament based on the average of the polls, and using the seat projections of iPredict (I don’t actually agree with all of them, but they are the only complete source of public predictions so I use them).

This table shows the last five polls from the five public pollsters. The average is shown, as is the weighted average (which takes into account recency and size).

National is projected to get between 44.5% and 48.2%, which is a a range within the margin of error. Note though these polls only partially include polling since the “Moment of Truth” on Monday night.

Labour is projected to get between 24.0% and 26.1%.

Greens are projected to get between 11.0% and 14.4%.

NZ First are projected to get between 6.6% and 8.4%.

Conservatives are projected to get between 3.3% and 4.9%

Internet Mana are projected to get between 0.9% and 2.0%

These seat projections take the party vote figures from each poll, but a standard assumption for electorate seats of the status quo.

National is projected to get between 56 and 61 seats.

Labour is projected to get between 30 and 33 seats.

Greens are projected to get between 14 and 18 seats.

NZ First are projected to get between 8 and 11 seats.

Internet Mana are projected to get between 1 and 3 seats.

In terms of coalitions, the findings are:

No polls predict National can govern alone

Two out of five say National could form a CR Government with ACT and United Future (if they win their electorate seats)

Four out of five say National could form a CR Government with ACT, United Future and Maori Party, if the Maori Party hold their seats and decide to go with National

No polls show that Labour, Greens and NZ First could form a Government

One poll says that Labour, Greens, NZ First and Internet Mana could form a Government

The average of the polls predicts National could govern either with NZ First alone or with ACT, United Future and the Maori Party (status quo)

The average of the polls predicts Labour could govern, but only with the agreement of Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party

These options are very finely balanced. A change in the party vote of just 1% would make a difference to what sort of government can be formed. If the Maori Party win less than their current three electorate seats, or if ACT, Mana, or United Future do not hold their electorates – that will have a significant impact on the possible shape of a Government.

Labour’s decision to rule out any ministerial roles for the Maori Party may turn out to be an incredibly stupid move for them, as it makes them far more reliant on support from Internet Mana. A Labour-Green-NZ First combination (Cunliffe’s stated option) is between three and six seats short of a majority in the polls. On average they are four seats short. This means that they realistically can not govern or pass laws (if they form a Government) without the agreement of Internet Mana. Internet Mana would of course support them to be Government (even if not Ministers) but they would have a effective veto on every law.

These polls show every vote could count. A change of just 1% could mean that NZ First hold the balance of power. If you have not voted, bote today or vote tomorrow.

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The Sunday Star-Times has published the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll, which is at Curiablog. It has Labour at a new low of 22.4%.

On the average of the polls, a centre-right government has a very slim majority. They have 63 seats and need 62. After that then the Maori Party or NZ First hold balance of power, unless the Conservatives make 5%.

The weighted average of the polls shows a tight race. The centre right parties could just govern – 62 seats out of 123. After that you would need Maori Paty, NZ First or Conservatives if they make 5%. The centre left parties have 51 seats.

I’ve had a look at the average of the four main polls (those that are members of the NZ Political Polling Code) today, and compared them to the polls two weeks before the last election. The relative positions are:

National polling 2.2% below 2011

Labour polling 3.1% below 2011

Greens polling 0.9% higher than 2011

NZ First polling 2.7% higher than 2011

Were the difference between the election result and the polls two weeks out to be the same this time, as in 2011, then the results would be:

National 45.2%

Labour 24.4%

Greens 12.0%

NZ First 9.3%

I don’t expect this to be the result. Each election and campaign is different. For example the publicity around the teapot recording gave Winston a late boost last time, while this time he is polling higher earlier on.

Also this only looks at the four larger parties. Two weeks out from 2011 the Conservatives were polling only around 1% and they got 2.7%. They’re currently averaging 3.2%, and an extra 1.7% would have them on 4.9%.

Two weeks out from election day the Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 401 eligible voters recorded 40 per cent support for Labour incumbent Iain Lees-Galloway and 39 per cent for his National challenger, Jono Naylor.

This is very close. The result means there is a 59% chance Lees-Galloway is ahead and a 41% chance Naylor is ahead.

I’ve just published the August 2014 edition of my monthly newsletter summarising the polls in New Zealand and four other countries. There were a huge 10 polls in August (does not include the three since 31 August which will be in the September average).

The graph above tells a story around Labour, doesn’t it?

The executive summary is:

There were ten political polls in August – two each of Roy Morgan, One News Colmar Brunton, 3 News Reid Research, Herald DigiPoll and Fairfax Ipsos.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, down 2% from July. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 49 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition still trails but is regaining support.

In the United States the Republicans are favoured to gain control of the Senate in November.

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 2%.The referendum on independence for Scotland has the no vote ahead by an average of 11%.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, and would be able to form a minority government on current polls.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. A new third table has been added, comparing approval ratings for opposition leaders in the four countries that have one.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Epsom, the Maori seats, political donations, foreign investment, “Dirty Politics”, binding referenda plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

Fairfax have said it all over bar the shouting. I would not be complacent. Certainly the thought of Labour governing on just 25% of the vote seems preposterous, but under MMP it can happen. The centre-right parties only have one seat margin over the minimum they need to govern.

The latest TV3 poll could see either National or Labour forming a Government.

But Labour could do only with the support of four other parties.

National could do so with the support of just one other party, either the Maori Party or New Zealand First.

National would be able to form a Government very similar to the current one, with the support of the Maori Party, Act and United Future on confidence and supply.

Labour would need both the Maori Party and New Zealand First, plus the Greens and Internet Mana.

Labour would actually need six parties including themselves as Mana and Internet only have a temporary alliance.

That means a Labour-led Government would need to get Labour, Greens, NZ First, Mana, Maori and Internet parties to all agree on something in order to be able to make a decision and progress law changes.

A Maori TV poll just released of Waiariki has incumbent MP Te Ururoa Flavell on 50%, Annette Sykes from Mana on 21% and the Labour candidate on 17%.

Polls can be out, and Maori seats are hard to poll, but I think there is little doubt that the Maori Party will be back in Parliament. They are also marginally ahead in Te Tai Hauauru. I suspect Tamaki Makaurau may be very close also.

Depending on their party vote, they could get List MPs also. But I don’t think enough to make Tame Iti an MP!

Rachel Cunliffe blogs at Stats Chat on how meaningless opt in polls are. Three different opt in polls or surveys had Key ahead by 22%, Cunliffe ahead by 1% and Cunliffe ahead by 27%. They are NOT scientific.

I was on a plane so did not see the debate, but consensus seems to be David Cunliffe did well, apart from interjecting a bit too much. That is as I predicted.