I am a big fan of Apple for many years — like the company, the iPod, the Macintosh, and even some of Steve Jobs’ schtick.

But looking objectively at the chart, this is a stock facing some problems: a series of lower lows, possibly pulling back towards the $45ish area.

To avoid this, the stock needs to get back over $60, and in a hurry:

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Weekly, 2 yearsclick for larger chart

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Any technician’s care to weigh in?

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UPDATE JUNE 30, 2006 8:43AM

This is why it is foolhardy to dismiss techncials as Voodoo. Someone clearly knew there was a problem with Apple, and they were sellers.

The WSJ reported that "Shares of Apple were down $1.27, or 2.15%, to $57.70 in pre-market trading. The home of the iPod revealed last night it had discovered "irregularities" in its stock-option grants between 1997 and 2001, including one to CEO to Steve Jobs. Apple is investigating further. . . "

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

Ain’t nothing like the real thing baby. There was a post on here when Apple was over $80 and there were only a couple of people who were very negative on Apple. Of course, I knew there was a 90% probability we were at a top based on great price turning tool I hocked from a genius. Then another at around $75ish and I was heckled for saying it was going to go to $38 to $42. OINK. Fib retracement is $38. It’s a pig and it’s headed down. $38 is the first stop. Beyond that, we just have to wait and see but I am looking at $13-15 as a possibility even longer term. That’s ouija board work right now.

People are calling the end to Dell and Microsoft and the re-emergence of Apple. Well, it might be the end of Wintel but it won’t be because of Apple. Apple ran hard this cycle because they are a consumer company not because Dell is going belly up. This was a consumer driven cycle. Dell and Microsoft derive nearly all of their profits from the business customer regardless of how much they sell into the razor thin small business and consumer space.

Apple will NEVER break into the business space and never is a long time. I’m not talking about a ten person company or the advertising department.

Anyone ever wonder why Sony has been trying to diversify into the industrial and business space with their strategy? Selling to the razor thin, fickle consumer space is a losing proposition.

Time for Apple’s dirt nap. It’ll take a while but it will happen. I believe hindsight will show Jobs will have likely repeated his prior mistakes. He’s got alot of that Gates persona in him. A megalomaniac control freak who has the capability of convincing himself of his own genius quite easily. Ok, that’s unfair but it isn’t that uncommon for CEOs and it is the reputation both have from people who have worked for them. Don’t believe me? Do a search and see how many people think so. Want to know why Wozniak left? Want to know why Nolan Bushnell left? Want to know why he was fired the first time?

He was good for Apple’s situation when he returned. He could still be good for Apple if he’d loosen up and share his kingdom with a few serfs.

Now if the MACD crosses when the stock’s on the 50 day, you gotta buy with both hands—but if it breaks the 50 day, you probably don’t have support until the 200 day, which we won’t know unless we get some kind of a selloff confirmation here.

See the bollinger bands? Yeah, yeah, they’re confirming it’s a tightening flag pattern, which only further confirms the potential for support at this level.

So, you know, I’m not really sure what you should do with this, I just think it kinda looks cool… oh wait a second, uh, I got the wrong symbol. So, uh, call me on those Yank tickets.

OT, what is the chatter I hear about P. Desmond of Lowry’s breaking his supposed “discipline” about 90% up days folllowing multiple 90% down days as signalling a market bottom? Caught it at another site but didn’t flag it. Was it in Barron’s? Anything significant about this? Barry?

I don’t follow Apple, but a Bill O’Neill disciple pointed out the train tracks formation at the beginning of the year. Don’t like to short individual stocks, but my buddy doesn’t care, and he’s made some nice dough. My chart says AAPL measures down to $55 as a good place to start buying.

I don’t think AAPL getting over 60 will save it. It’ll run into a ton of overhead resistance and the 200 and 50 XMAs are lurking right above there.

A 50% Fib retrace of the 2003-2006 move would take it to 46′ish. Close enough to 45 for me.

In the mood for more short candidates? Check out the charts for MER and WY. Plenty of pain to go around across many a sector.

I just love seeing “them” pump up the market on light volume with oil over $73, gold at $600 and the GDP coming in hot. For a good laugh look at the pump on the “homies”. JOE up 50 cents on 224k shares. It’s a grand comedy. What’s there not for Bernanke to love?

I don’t know HOW I got directed to this site (MaoXian) but here’s the snippet, apparently lifted from this week’s Barron’s (6/26)and editorial comments appended (MaoXian?):

“The current bull cycle began in October 2002, and since March 2003, has roared ahead without a 10% correction. Only the bull run from October 1990 through May 1996 was longer — 1,420 trading days without a 10% setback … Ordinarily, the arrival of the bear would be confirmed when the market experiences two “90% downside” days, like May 17 and June 5 — when 90% or more of the trading occurs in declining stocks, says Lowry’s Paul Desmond. But sharp moves of similar magnitude both down and up in a 30-day period since the market peak in early May have led him to discount the significance of the action. Instead, a new watch has begun for the next 90% downside day. And a real bottom.” — Sandra Ward [ed. I’m confused… doesn’t Paul Desmond have very strict rules about how to interpret 90% up and down days? A 90% upside day occured on March 17, 2003 within 30 days of a 90% downside day on March 10, 2003… why didn’t Desmond “discount the significance” of that action? What date did the 90% upside day occur in the last few weeks? Does anyone know? Must have been June 15th, no? And wasn’t May 11th also a 90% dowside day?]

Mark,
I read that Barrons article. What I took away from it was that the 90% upside days have sort of negated the 90% down side days he uses to determine when a bear market has begun. So, he is looking for more confirmation to the downside. NOT as confirmation for a bottom but as a confirmation of da bear being here. (Because 90% downside days can also be used to determine a bottom although I find that an awfully weak method in and of itself.

I wonder if Paul uses technical tools exclusively. A point of interest from my perspective is that even though America has seen some nice recovery days, many global markets have not been as resilient. Neither has their currencies and neither has their debt which in many instances are being crushed against the dollar. That is not a good sign IMO. As weak as the dollar has been, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it strengthen if the economic sh*t really hits the fan. So far it hasn’t. But sometimes you have to look beyond the obvious to get an edge. The dollar is tough to figure out but the boneheads are on the wrong side of the dollar trade right now in the forex market.

If we do see a full scale slow down, wait till these investors get taken to the cleaners in overseas markets. And most overseas investment funds have no clue how to hedge against currency moves so it will likely be a double blow. ie, If emerging currencies fall by 25% and emerging equities fall by 50% or more, people are going to realize they should have paid attention in math class.

Most of the money I made this year was short AAPL. That being said… I think the trade is over for now. The downward momentum has slowed dramatically and the media has taken note of the decline (always a short killer). Look for a bounce to the mid 60s before even thinking about getting short.

BTW— Compare the AAPL and the $INDU chart by lining up the AAPL Jan peak with the May $INDU peak. The similarities between the first leg down are startling. In fact, if the Dow can’t rally above 11300 in the next few days, I think we’re in for a second big down leg down pretty soon.

If anyone needs a good short candidate, I think you should starting looking at GM and CAT. The GM weekly chart is a thing of beauty.

Now that CTX and COH have rallied a bit this might be a good entry point too.

Hey three more days like today and we have a double digit year for the stock market. This is so ridiculous that people claim the market isn’t manipulated. Gotta ride the wave with the big money.

NB didn’t work for Apple. My comment was more along the lines of why he left after being offered equal partnership of Apple for a rounding error of his net worth at the time. That was when Jobs worked for NB. NB said no way because Jobs was a major twirp. Woz and NB have both commented repeatedly how Jobs was the most self centered, manipulative maniacal butthead ever to walk the earth.

From a fundamental point of view, I can’t see how IPOD’s will continue to soar as it has. Although the new Intel chips, I think Apple’s new cash cow will be its newer, faster laptops. Too early to say, really…

From a technician’s point of view, actually yesterday, when it fell through a major support level $58.27, I was getting ready to short this bad boy.

I would then have a new support level at around $50, because if you zoom out to a three year graph, you would see this as a price channel. And that is where I would be a little more concerned about before it hits $48 (a support level as well).

I didn’t run any Fib Lines, I just look for major support levels.

But today, it jumped back up above the huge 58.27 support level. And at first, I was like, wow, this sucker could start going up.

Na-uh… Look at the volume today, nothing substantial. If you go up 5% in one day, and you just see average volume … its likely a fakeout.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it went up a couple days, and went back down.

BUT after the FED’s decision, we have new found (however, short lived), optimism in the markets – and I would suspect this to be the beginning of a new summer rally – before the bears start to kick into second gear.

I think we are one wave 3 of the elliot wave theory (I can’t remember the logistics)…

Anyhoo, if thats the case, apple will go up for the ride along wtih teh rest of the market.

DID ANYONE READ the news on Apple, aftermarket??? Some conspiracy with options.

I’ve been short Apple for a while. Yesterday’s cover article on AAPL in the WSJ was pretty revealing. There has been quite an exodous of talent from the org within the past year, and reading the article this shouldn’t come as a big surprise.

interesting… the stock is down from a high of 85 to 58ish in several months, and NOW we’re talking about the chart? and everyone is bearish? is this scripted?

the name of the game this quarter, and in fact the last quarter also is and will continue to be the sales rate of the new intel-based CPUs. those of you that pulled off the road at the ipod unit delivery growth rate motel are missing the party.

CPUs carry higher revenue and higher absolute profit than ipods, so a little percentage bump in CPU sales will effect the bottom line quite a bit. earnings are in a few weeks.

Not everyone is bearish on AAPL, as judged by the 3pt rally today, even though Thursday’s buyers might already be feeling a bit of remorse.

And just because it’s down from the blow-off top it had in January doesn’t mean there isn’t more to go on the downside, not when the trailing P/E is 30 and the economy is expected to slow. Are higher interest rates and a slowing economy traditionally good for tech? I think not.

My chart says AAPL measures down to $55 as a good place to start buying.

Posted by: Bynocerus | Jun 29, 2006 12:04:31 PM

Please note my previous comment – I suggested that AAPL was very close to a buy well before the massive rally began Thursday. This should suggest that not EVERYONE is bearish on the stock. I’m not sure how much bounce AAPL gets, and things don’t always go “perfectly”, but I came pretty damn close to nailing it.

Apple (AAPL) stock has been under some pressure. There are a number of interesting issues, nicely laid out by Barry Ritholtz in his commentary on the recent price action. Should we pay attention to this or to the fundamentals? What

Earnings miss on AAPL? Are you you nuts? Read the analyst commentary, MacBook sales are gangbusters, the factories in asia can’t keep up. I’m no fan-boy, just going by what I hear. WRT higher interest rates, keep in mind 50% of AAPL’s sales are international and they also will earn more interest on their $8b of cash setup in Nevada. Lastly, AAPL has no plans to break into the business space and even a slight penetration into the CE PC space will create blow-out earnings, since the street is used to AAPL’s 2% marketshare for the last 15 years. Sony’s walkmans sold into 300+mil units and iPods are only at ~50mil and their MP3-player marketshare has increased QoQ in 2006. Take that for what its worth.

Apple (AAPL) stock has been under some pressure. There are a number of interesting issues, nicely laid out by Barry Ritholtz in his commentary on the recent price action. Should we pay attention to this or to the fundamentals? What

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