June 24, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reached the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We should expect some pullback the coming weeks. The correction now may just be a horizontal move. But I think a correction towards 2400 and the 50-day average seems to be the minimum. My advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things are happening in the world these days that may change everything from one day to the other. Do not put everything at risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."

Monday started with a gap up closing the day with a new higher high. The gap was closed on Wednesday and some recovery on Friday closed the week a fraction higher. I can only repeat: the index reached the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming once more close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. There is a negative divergence between the index and both the Stochastic RSI and the price stochastic. We should expect some pullback the coming weeks. This correction may just be a horizontal move. But I think a correction towards 2400 and the 50-day average seems to be the minimum. My advice is to swing trade short term only. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

June 20, 2017

Focus is one of the most important part of trading and life. You need to be able to focus or you won’t get anything done.

I teach that people, other than day traders, should only spend 15 minutes a day on their trading. Why? Because they can focus for that long and not much longer. I’ll write more about that later.

Another way to focus is to create a tight schedule and then stick to it. I’m going to propose that you create a 30 Day Challenge for your trading.

Sit down right now and get ready to take some notes.

I want you to create a Challenge for yourself to accomplish in the next 30 days. Let me give you some suggestions:

1. Execute flawlessly for 30 days.

2. Make money every day.

3. Learn something new every day.

4. Talk to another trader every day.

5. Have your equity higher at the end of 30 days than today.

You figure out what you should focus on to make yourself a better trader and a more profitable trader. Have a problem with psychology? Feel fear when you put on a trade? Then give your self 30 days to conquer this problem. Better yet, don’t feel fear every day for 30 days.

This 30 Day Challenge is a great way to make sharp jumps in your trading skill. It creates focus.

To help you, here’s a link to fill out a simple form for your 30 Day Challenge. I don’t want your name or email. You will be anonymous. But filling this form out will be a great way to commit to the 30 Day Challenge.

In 30 days, I’ll write another letter asking for your experience with the 30 Day Challenge.

Do you worry? Do you wake up in the middle of the night sweating? Does fear control you? Does it stop you from making money as a trader?

Are your fears controlling you?

One of the best ways to control fear is to confront it. We are only afraid of the unknown. So one technique for conquering fear is to look it in the face.

#1. You’ll Die

OK, just joking. I’ve never seen a medical examiner declare a person dead through an overdose of trading!

But I’m putting it in this list to make the point that the most awful thing that can happen to you won’t happen because of trading. So relax.

#2. You will lose a lot of money

Of course this can happen. Many people lose lots of money trading. Why? Usually because they don’t have a system, don’t follow the system, and/or don’t have good risk management.

Now stop and think about it. How much can you lose? Let’s say you put in $10,000 into an account. Theoretically, you could lose all of that and more. Realistically you could lose all the money in the account.

How do you feel about that? How do you feel about losing $10,000? No, really get into the feeling of what it would be like to lose that money. You worked hard for it. You’ll never see it again.

Remember that you should never trade with money you can’t afford to lose so your financial situation should not be dire if you lose the money.

#3 You will be lonely

In the final analysis, trading is a solitary profession. You are the only one who make the final decision of your trades. Yes, you can talk to other traders but this is not like a regular job where you get to chat with others around the water cooler.

You may start talking to yourself and wandering around the house in PJs. You’ll get fat from raiding the refrigerator all day.

#4 People will shun you

Similar to the one above, people won’t really understand you. What do you do for a living. I’m a trader. And then watch their face. Most will look confused but a few will be interested. Most won’t know what to do with you because being a trader doesn’t fit into their reality.

In fact, even your family and friends may not really like that you are a trader. They won’t understand it. My parents thought I was a stock broker for my whole career because that was the only thing they could relate to. I don’t think either of my two wives really knew what I did for a living.

#5 You’ll succeed

Keith Cunningham says that hell is meeting the person you could have been.

Many people don’t really want to succeed. They find ways to sabotage themselves. They find excuses for their failure.

Success means that you have to take responsibility for your situation and many people don’t want that responsibility. It’s scary. There is nothing to hang onto.

The Bottom Line

I know this is kind of a bummer. I get that.

But I believe that trading is very easy if we let it be easy. But few people allow it to be easy.

My favorite book on the psychology of trading is Mark Douglas’ The Discipline Trader. You can get it here.

June 18, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reaches the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming week." We got a pullback towards 2415 and closed at 2431. For the coming week I expect a further reaction down in first instance towards 2400 and medium term possibly 2200. My advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things are happening in the world these days that may change everything from one day to the other. Do not put everything at risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."

Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reached the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We should expect some pullback the coming weeks. The correction now may just be a horizontal move. But I think a correction towards 2400 and the 50-day average seems to be the minimum. My advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things are happening in the world these days that may change everything from one day to the other. Do not put everything at risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

June 16, 2017

Amazon announced today that they are buying Whole Foods (otherwise known as Whole Paychecks). This is powerful for several perspectives.

Amazon is moving more and more into the real world. I’m in Beverly Hills right now. I can order from Amazon and two local grocery chains and have the food or products delivered to me in less than two hours! Now I’ll be able to have my Whole Foods delivered to me as quickly.

In addition, AMZN has been opening bookstores over the last year to experiment with different business models from traditional book stores.

What this also means is that the prices in Whole Foods stores are about to be slashed. Amazon knows how to run lean, better than Whole Foods. So we can now expect Whole Foods to compete on price with the big grocery chains which means Whole Foods revenues are about to explode.

It is also setting up a collision with Walmart. Walmart is now the country’s biggest grocer and they do an amazing job at it. Amazon is taking the high end with Whole Foods but you can bet that Amazon will find a way to dive even deeper into Walmart’s territory as the same time Walmart is trying to revive their online presence to attack Amazon.

These are two great companies but Amazon has been online longer. In addition, Amazon has made themselves a platform for all sellers so they are a bigger footprint. I never want to count out Walmart but I give the edge to Amazon.

I’m really bullish on AMZN stock! I think today’s announcement is a great opportunity for both swing traders and position traders to buy AMZN.

The best place to keep up with my specific stock trades is my weekly video newsletter, TradeSmith. Please check it out here.

June 12, 2017

Friday’s tech savaging continues today. The NASDAQ has already dropped almost 5% from high to low in just two days.

The size of the move on Friday combined with the heavy volume suggest that this is a major high for the index. We are seeing other sectors, such as consumer staples and utilities rallying sharply as investors move from tech to safe havens.

I liquidated nearly all my tech position by Monday and will wait until I think of investing in this sector soon from a position perspective.

But, as a swing trader, I’ll be buying Facebook (FB) if it closes higher on the day. Right now, as I write this, we are seeing an initial plunge but now FB is rallying sharply. This type of price action usually leads to a pop to the upside that is very traceable and I look to make some money. I’ll be taking profits of about $4 per share at about 151.00.

June 10, 2017

Last week I wrote: "June 1 and 2 we are reaching new tops. Long term the index is still in an up move nicely following the median line of the long term pitchfork. Still I advice to be careful, the market is I believe not stable. With the new US president anything may change the market from one day to the other. Try to swing trade the shorter term. Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reaches the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming week. I have installed a new PC and I am in trouble making everything to work again. My charts are not updated with my indicators. I will try to solve it the coming week. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I mentioned: "Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reaches the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming week." We got a pullback towards 2415 and closed at 2431. For the coming week I expect a further reaction down in first instance towards 2400 and medium term possibly 2200. My advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things are happening in the world these days that may change everything from one day to the other. Do not put everything at risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

June 9, 2017

Should you go cold turkey and jump into being a pro trader? Or should you keep your job until you are profitable and then quit? In other words, should you keep a safety net under you before you quit.

I’ve done both.

I’ve been pretty poor with a wife and kid to support and did it as a trader. But I was running scared all the time! It was not a pleasant experience! I don’t recommend it!

But, at the same time, I had to be really committed to success. I had burned my bridges and was forced to execute my trading plans flawlessly. I learned more in a shorter time because I had no choice.

When we have a job then we have the ability to slack off and push our trading to the side.

I have a consulting client right now and he is in this situation. He is smart and really wants to quit his job but his job takes up nearly all of his time and mental bandwidth. So he makes money when he takes the time to focus on trading and then goes through times where there are no trades and everything drifts.

I can’t in all good conscience recommend you quit your job until you have a good capital base and a track record of success. You are the only person who can make that decision.

I was young when I did that. It worked out fine. But it is not for everybody.

I think it comes down to your personal psychology. Are you prepared to Go Big? Are you ready to make the commitment necessary? Or do you want to play it safe?

Both answers are fine. You have to look deep into yourself to find the answer.

In either case, you should look into raising your trading ability to the level so that you have the choice! I’ve put together an online course called How To Quit Your Job Trading Stocks and Options. I’ve put together a mini-course that is free and you can get instant access by clicking here now.

June 7, 2017

I have gone around the world and asked a simple question: Are you overpaid? I’ve probably asked that question to 10,000 people. I’ve only had one person answer yes.

That means that 9999 people were working for less pay than they deserve. You are probably in that group.

I often think about what it is like to work at a job where you are underpaid. What does it do to your psyche and self -esteem?

What does it do to you when you constantly feel under-appreciated? I think it must slowly degrade your self-esteem and self-worth. How is it possible to get rich with that gnawing at you?

I think few people have a job which allows them to get paid fairly and help them grow as a person. And that is a major problem in the world! It’s hard to have world peace when people are cranky about their job!

How can you become the person you should be when you spend 10 hours every day in work and commutation? And then you are tired when you get home?

You NEED to take control of your job! What do you want out of life? Will your job be the tool to get you there?

We offer a super cool online course called How To Quit Your Job Trading Stocks and Options. You can find out more info by clicking here now.

Trading stocks and options is not for everyone but it may be just perfect for you.Check it out here.

June 4, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving average." Tuesday the market closed a fraction higher, creating a new top. However, Wednesday the gap was closed and the index even went down a bit further closing one more gap in this daily chart reaching the low side of the volatility channel. From that point there was a pullback to the upper side. The larger move down on Wednesday created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed before the downward move continues down to the first target around 2325. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."

June 1 and 2 we are reaching new tops. Long term the index is still in an up move nicely following the median line of the long term pitchfork. Still I advice to be careful, the market is I believe not stable. With the new US president anything may change the market from one day to the other. Try to swing trade the shorter term. Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reaches the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming week. I have installed a new PC and I am in trouble making everything to work again. My charts are not updated with my indicators. I will try to solve it the coming week. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

June 1, 2017

Inventories are higher than normal at this time of year.
Seasonals are bearish for the next several months.
Technicals are breaking down and our Purple Predictor is also plunging.

To see the charts please go to CourtneySmith.com//nat-gas-will-plunge/

You can trade this in futures or stocks.

I’m getting in right now!

Want to keep up with this trade? Want me to guide you on how to make money on this trade?
For more information! Go to http://bit.ly/Trade-Smith
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