Ramsey and Stabley I already had in the R-Z253 category. I'll go add Pike right now.

Just to note Pike is the guy in whose sample L554 was found, that may be why he wasn't originally in your R-Z253 category.

I just created the category this evening when I saw a couple of positive results.

I'm a little hesitant to create new categories until I see the SNPs are solid. The reason I asked about Z253 and L226 is because of the error concerning Z255 and L144. I had heard here in this forum that L144 was downstream of Z255, so I went ahead and rearranged categories and noted that L144 was a subclade of Z255 on the heading for its category. As it turned out, that was not the case. I wanted to be sure I wasn't making the same mistake with Z253 and L226.

Things are getting a bit hectic with all the new SNPs being discovered, each with its own project. Pretty soon the R-L21 Plus Project may become obsolete . . . or else impossibly complex and a nuisance to maintain.

This would appear to support Professor Barry Cunliffe's theory, Celtic from the West."Celtic probably evolved in the Atlantic Zone during the Bronze Age (Cunliffe 2008, 258). this Celticization from the West proposal contrasts with the more widely familiar account of Celtic origins, in which the core narrative is tightly entwined with La Tene and Halstatt cultures or Iron Age west central Europe."Moffat and Wilson state: "The commercial links along the Atlantic littoral flourished between 1300 BC and 600 BC. Goods were fed in and out of the network as they travelled up and down river from the continental interior. Archealogists have found ample evidence of a complex system of exchange that operated for several centuries".Around the middle of the first millinium, when the weather changed and these trade routes declined Halstatt and later La Tene emerged."DNA sampling reinforces an intertwined sense of two distinct seaborne trading networks in Britain and Ireland. In the west, the emphatic presence of S145 (L21) appears to mirror mercantile contact. Distinctive pots known as maritime bell beakers were first made in the region around the River Tagus in Portugal and the tradition of bows and arrows in graves may also have originated there. By 2,500 BC, this cultural package had spread north to the Morbihan area of southern Brittany."Now it appears that S145 also travelled these trading routes. The marker probably originated in southern France or northern Iberia and people carrying it came to Ireland and western Scotland. This was not a wave of migration but a series of small movements over time, probably in the millennium between 2,500 BC and 1,500 BC."

This would appear to support Professor Barry Cunliffe's theory, Celtic from the West."Celtic probably evolved in the Atlantic Zone during the Bronze Age (Cunliffe 2008, 258). this Celticization from the West proposal contrasts with the more widely familiar account of Celtic origins, in which the core narrative is tightly entwined with La Tene and Halstatt cultures or Iron Age west central Europe."Moffat and Wilson state: "The commercial links along the Atlantic littoral flourished between 1300 BC and 600 BC. Goods were fed in and out of the network as they travelled up and down river from the continental interior. Archealogists have found ample evidence of a complex system of exchange that operated for several centuries".Around the middle of the first millinium, when the weather changed and these trade routes declined Halstatt and later La Tene emerged."DNA sampling reinforces an intertwined sense of two distinct seaborne trading networks in Britain and Ireland. In the west, the emphatic presence of S145 (L21) appears to mirror mercantile contact. Distinctive pots known as maritime bell beakers were first made in the region around the River Tagus in Portugal and the tradition of bows and arrows in graves may also have originated there. By 2,500 BC, this cultural package had spread north to the Morbihan area of southern Brittany."Now it appears that S145 also travelled these trading routes. The marker probably originated in southern France or northern Iberia and people carrying it came to Ireland and western Scotland. This was not a wave of migration but a series of small movements over time, probably in the millennium between 2,500 BC and 1,500 BC."

Problem with this theory is that there is not much L21 in Atlantic Iberia and does a fair old bit of it not belong to 2 fairly late historic period clusters?

This would appear to support Professor Barry Cunliffe's theory, Celtic from the West."Celtic probably evolved in the Atlantic Zone during the Bronze Age (Cunliffe 2008, 258). this Celticization from the West proposal contrasts with the more widely familiar account of Celtic origins, in which the core narrative is tightly entwined with La Tene and Halstatt cultures or Iron Age west central Europe."Moffat and Wilson state: "The commercial links along the Atlantic littoral flourished between 1300 BC and 600 BC. Goods were fed in and out of the network as they travelled up and down river from the continental interior. Archealogists have found ample evidence of a complex system of exchange that operated for several centuries".Around the middle of the first millinium, when the weather changed and these trade routes declined Halstatt and later La Tene emerged."DNA sampling reinforces an intertwined sense of two distinct seaborne trading networks in Britain and Ireland. In the west, the emphatic presence of S145 (L21) appears to mirror mercantile contact. Distinctive pots known as maritime bell beakers were first made in the region around the River Tagus in Portugal and the tradition of bows and arrows in graves may also have originated there. By 2,500 BC, this cultural package had spread north to the Morbihan area of southern Brittany."Now it appears that S145 also travelled these trading routes. The marker probably originated in southern France or northern Iberia and people carrying it came to Ireland and western Scotland. This was not a wave of migration but a series of small movements over time, probably in the millennium between 2,500 BC and 1,500 BC."

Problem with this theory is that there is not much L21 in Atlantic Iberia and does a fair old bit of it not belong to 2 fairly late historic period clusters?

Alan,I agree. However S116 (P312), the parent of S145 (L21) and S116*, has its hotspot in Iberia.http://m.box.com/view_shared/hxp8ie25yvS116 and S145 apparently did not hang around too long on the Atlantic facade before migrating to the Isles and expanding as M222 and other sub clades. I am very interested in the discovery of so many new sub clades of L21. Who knows where they will lead us. However the journey will be fascinating.As you say the Bell Beakers are in pole position ...

This would appear to support Professor Barry Cunliffe's theory, Celtic from the West."Celtic probably evolved in the Atlantic Zone during the Bronze Age (Cunliffe 2008, 258). this Celticization from the West proposal contrasts with the more widely familiar account of Celtic origins, in which the core narrative is tightly entwined with La Tene and Halstatt cultures or Iron Age west central Europe."Moffat and Wilson state: "The commercial links along the Atlantic littoral flourished between 1300 BC and 600 BC. Goods were fed in and out of the network as they travelled up and down river from the continental interior. Archealogists have found ample evidence of a complex system of exchange that operated for several centuries".Around the middle of the first millinium, when the weather changed and these trade routes declined Halstatt and later La Tene emerged."DNA sampling reinforces an intertwined sense of two distinct seaborne trading networks in Britain and Ireland. In the west, the emphatic presence of S145 (L21) appears to mirror mercantile contact. Distinctive pots known as maritime bell beakers were first made in the region around the River Tagus in Portugal and the tradition of bows and arrows in graves may also have originated there. By 2,500 BC, this cultural package had spread north to the Morbihan area of southern Brittany."Now it appears that S145 also travelled these trading routes. The marker probably originated in southern France or northern Iberia and people carrying it came to Ireland and western Scotland. This was not a wave of migration but a series of small movements over time, probably in the millennium between 2,500 BC and 1,500 BC."

Problem with this theory is that there is not much L21 in Atlantic Iberia and does a fair old bit of it not belong to 2 fairly late historic period clusters?

Alan,I agree. However S116 (P312), the parent of S145 (L21) and S116*, has its hotspot in Iberia.http://m.box.com/view_shared/hxp8ie25yvS116 and S145 apparently did not hang around too long on the Atlantic facade before migrating to the Isles and expanding as M222 and other sub clades. I am very interested in the discovery of so many new sub clades of L21. Who knows where they will lead us. However the journey will be fascinating.As you say the Bell Beakers are in pole position ...

It does remain to be seem what P312* is ancestral to L21. A lot of it is being redefined by intervening SNPs like Z196 that rule out former P312* being an ancestor of L21. The greatest hope for nailing this question will be an SNP between P312 and L21. If one is ever found then the present P312* that has it will be the best indication of the immediate ancestor of L21.

Long ago, an P312(S116)+ L21(S145)- man somewhere had an L21+ son. However, today's P312* people from Iberia are not necessarily of older sublcades of P312 than L21. Many are probably of Z196, but some may be of some other unidentified SNPs. That doesn't mean they are old though.

Modern P312* is just a paragroup, not a single old clade. For that matter, U152 is older than P312*. U152 is the oldest subclade of P312 so far. It is rare in Iberia, but common in the Rhine Valley and into Northern Italy (Cisalpine Gaul.)

I'm not sure that hotspots of high frequency are that important anyway. I know a very, very (probable) hotspot of L21. That doesn't mean it is the origin of L21 if it is O'Neil, Nebraska.

Mike,If we look at the major P312 sub clades.L21 is mainly Atlantic, Isles based and especially Ireland.I don't know a lot about U152, as it is not in my defining mutations, although I understand it is more central and could be Rhine, Alpine, Italy based possibly including coastal hopping maritime agriculturists.Z196 appears to be N-S, Isles - Iberia based and especially Isles.L238 is possibly Atlantic Scandanavian and DF19 initiially Isles and some Continental.

This appears to me to match Bell Beaker patterns.Moffat and Wilson appear to come to the same conclusion, although I have not seen published data on which the book is based. I have little confidence in STR age estimates and variance as they are so unpredictable.Our best chance of understanding all this is to wait until the P312 tree becomes more defined with new SNPs and possibly benchmarking these SNPs against ancient DNA.

Milesians..."arrived in the Iberian Peninsula, where they settled after several battles. One of them, Breogán, built a tower at a place called Brigantia (probably in the coast of Galicia, near A Coruña (Corunna), which was then "Brigantia" (today Betanzos) and where a Celtic tribe called "Brigantes" is attested in ancient times — see Tower of Hercules) from the top of which he, or his son Íth, first saw Ireland" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milesians_(Irish)

I know the myth but Ireland is not visible from there. I have actually visited the tower in A'Coruna which is in fact a Roman light house called the tower of Hercules http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tower_of_Hercules and you can see nothing but open sea from it. Its also nowhere near enough old to have been around at the time of the Celtic settlement of Ireland. Nice place though.

"The Tower of Brigantia is the only lighthouse in the world with two thousand years in operation. The tower existed in Celtic times, possibly as a watchtower."

"In the Celtic religion, Brigantia was the name of an important goddess. The word [Briga-] meant "high" or "holy" in the ancient Celtic language. Besides the Galician realm of Brigantium, there were also two other kingdoms of Brigantia in Ireland and Britain."

"Maritime trade and cultural relations were intense in Atlantic Europe since the Bronze Age and the Galician city of Brigantia was a major trading port with the British Isles. It is likely that the mouth of the estuary leading to the city of Brigantia had several small watchtowers to alert the oppidum or city in case of danger. One of those watchtowers --the most strategic of them all, overlooking the estuary and the open seas-- could have been replaced by the Farum Brigantium lighthouse, which today is known as Tower of Hercules.""The new Castilian legend told that Greek hero Hercules fought for three days against a Trojan giant called Gerion, whom he eventually defeated. To celebrate his victory, Hercules built a tower and brought a group of people to live in the city. The Castilian tale explains that those settlers were brought from Galatia, in Anatolia, and "that's why the land became known as Galizia".

"In December 1601 the Irish lost the Battle of Kinsale against England and subsequently many Gaelic earls and their families decided to leave the country to avoid reprisals. Hundreds of Irish men, women and children arrived to Corunna and many of them decided to stay forever in Galicia, which reminded them strongly of home."

Interesting stories of migrations from Anatolia to Northern Iberia to Ireland and the return of the last Celtic chiefs to the point of departure. Of course Ireland is not visible from the tower. However poetic licence can be invoked.

Mike,If we look at the major P312 sub clades.....This appears to me to match Bell Beaker patterns.

I agree but my caveat is that the Bell Beaker patterns almost appear like a bowl of spaghetti thrown on Europe. In other words, I'm not sure that its pattern is that conclusive of anything other than its tenacles stretch all over.

.... I have little confidence in STR age estimates and variance as they are so unpredictable.Our best chance of understanding all this is to wait until the P312 tree becomes more defined with new SNPs and possibly benchmarking these SNPs against ancient DNA.

Even if you don't want to look at STR age estimates, you should consider looking at STR diversity. There is no doubt that mutations accumulate with time, whether it is a straight line or not. Even Busby used STR diversity in the core argument of their analysis.

Mutation rates are the more controversial subject, I think. There are wide degrees of swing between two different camps on this. STR diversity numbers are not affected by the mutation rate arguments.

SNPs and STRs are NOT items to consider in isolation. It is in fact the greater resolution of SNP that will help refine STR variance estimations. The SNPs help put "fences" around the right groups of people to smaller and smaller groups. Ken Nordtvedt is using nested variance in his latest methodology.

Mike,Thank you for your clarification. Perhaps I should have said Maritime Bell Beaker. I agree that progress depends on a mixture of SNPs and STRs. At the current rate of discovery of new SNPs, I hope that that will be soon. I read somewhere that we could expect full genome sequencing (3B base pairs) with full Y, MtDNA and X within two years at a price point about $500. 23andme started offering full Exome (50 M base pairs for health) this week at $999.Denmark has launched the 1% (of population) genome project, the UK has the 10,000 genome project and Ireland has launched the Ireland DNA Atlas project. These projects are primarily designed to yield health benefits, but a by product will be a better understanding of ancestry and population genetics. When, I firsted tested with National Geographic over 5 years ago for 12 STRs none of this would have seemed possible. Indeed even more improbable was someone suggesting I was descended from a Bell Beaker.:).

Z253xL226 is becoming more important to helping understand L21. It started out as being a couple of guys of Spanish descent in the HG 1000 Project but now includes people from Switzerland and Norway ... a long way from the Dalcassian Irish TIII/L226 folks.

The Swiss fellow is close to the Irish TIV/Continental haplotype. I'm trying to get one of those guys to test for Z253.

I can find no single common off-modal marker for Z253. It looks to be closer in age to L21 than to L226.

Z253xL226 is becoming more important to helping understand L21. It started out as being a couple of guys of Spanish descent in the HG 1000 Project but now includes people from Switzerland and Norway ... a long way from the Dalcassian Irish TIII/L226 folks.

The Swiss fellow is close to the Irish TIV/Continental haplotype. I'm trying to get one of those guys to test for Z253.

I can find no single common off-modal marker for Z253. It looks to be closer in age to L21 than to L226.

Okay. I just addressed bulk emails from the R-L21 Plus Project to the members of the Spain, Portugal, and New World: Spanish or Portuguese Surname categories asking them to test for Z253.

Hopefully, the emails won't go out to all the members of the project, but just to the members of the categories listed above. (We're supposed to have the capability to limit bulk emails by category now, but we'll see.)

Bulk emails to the entire project always seem to result in a flood of emails in my Inbox, so I try not to send too many of them.

Z253xL226 is becoming more important to helping understand L21. It started out as being a couple of guys of Spanish descent in the HG 1000 Project but now includes people from Switzerland and Norway ... a long way from the Dalcassian Irish TIII/L226 folks.

The Swiss fellow is close to the Irish TIV/Continental haplotype. I'm trying to get one of those guys to test for Z253.

I can find no single common off-modal marker for Z253. It looks to be closer in age to L21 than to L226.