When is capacity, not capacity?

The demand for reserves has been increased this season by the loss of 240 megawatts of thermal generation that its owners have told the market operator will not be available to meet short-term spikes in demand or the loss of generation elsewhere in the ­National Electric­ity Market.

The Australian Energy Market Operator is seeking up to 930MW of reserve power to reinforce the NEM during what is expected to be a hotter, drier summer and an earlier bushfire season.

What if 5,000MW of wind or solar capacity was not available tomorrow? That’s not an emergency, it’s business as usual. Every day we pay for back up reserve power lest the wind and solar generators take the day off.

Emergency action includes …”recalling mothballed gas-generation plants in Tasmania, Queensland and SA, diesel generators, and “demand response measures’’ that pay users to switch off their power.”

What do we do when renewables cause instability and price spikes — add more:

But the system operator stated more energy generation and storage capacity would enter the market in time for summer. As much as 2100MW of new energy capacity — mainly from wind and solar generation — will be added to the grid by December.

Another 2GW of renewables coming in the next month. Just what we need!

It seems we are the designated small-scale proof of concept “crash test dummies” to determine the best way to peacefully ( so far ) take down a western nation from within……

“”A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared. The traitor is the carrier of the plague. You have unbarred the gates of Rome to him.”

KK. Even as a 14 year old kid translating Cicero and Julius Caesar sixty years ago I noted that politicians and lawyers had not changed in two thousand years. In the sixty since they have gone backwards.

There has to be a 2,000 or more years old reason for that. Probably explained as a cycle.

I’m noticing people are becoming more open to the ideas that pollies have made a mess of power. Sometimes you have to couch the conversation in terms of pollies, not the ignorant voters….then you can give them the info about the Big Lie and its usually well received.

Some of the brainashed young things wont listen, but I tell them anyway, and tell them the problem is theirs and they have that responsibility – and it wont go away until the Communists ( who we politely call “socialists” ) are removed from power in this country…..

If I get yelled at, I just tell them they are ignorant and uninformed and need to grow up. Sometimes they become incandescent, but I’m fairly solid and can physcally handle myself, so they think twice.

Yes, I agree knew of the issues has been that three baby boomers are harboring many of the millennials in their basements so there’s a large contingent of them that have never seen a power bill, much less paid one.

It seems we are the designated small-scale proof of concept “crash test dummies” to determine the best way to peacefully ( so far ) take down a western nation from within……

No !… That cannot be true. ?
Surely Germany have been the “dummies” to proove the concept outcomes before us .
And the results verified by SA, and California.
No, Australia is the refined “self aware” version , as the population is now well aware of the certain outcomes , but consiously vote to plung onwards to social and economic suicide. !

“By 1968, Wallace was a true national figure who had become the leading spokesman of forces opposed to civil rights. As a third party candidate, he opposed Republican Richard M. Nixon and Democrat Hubert H. Humphrey in the general election, maintaining that there was not a “dime’s worth of difference” between the two. ”

Sorted! I’m now using Opera, as I just don’t like the intrusive nature of Chrome and I was trying to implement cookie management with Opera (no modern browser is as effective at this as was Internet Explorer). Even though I was whitelisting selected cookies, cookie deletion deleted all cookies regardless. The first extension I used for cookie management did nothing differently, but I now have an extension that’s reasonably effective.

I really hope that both states blackout for a full week or more. This is the only way to wake the public up to what these “green” imbeciles are doing. Nothing like a good lesson to wake the people up to what is actually going on.
Maybe, just maybe reality will prevail!

Has anyone else noticed the obvious change in climate problem descriptions. How many weeks since CO2 was mentioned. Because nobody believes in CO2 bullshit the narative now has changed to emissions. What emissions are these, nocturnal, methane (farts) , or other. Keep up the scepticism folks they’re running out of ideas!!

Another change, unrelated to climate change is the eradication of the crime of murder.
It’s now a much less offensive offence called homicide! Really?.?.

‘…because the BoM is forecasting hot, dry conditions. El Nino on the way ….’

Rest easy, its a modest El Nino with little impact. The STR will remain in a collapsed state and conditions in the mid latitude will be too hot then too cold. Its a wave like motion, so I wouldn’t expect to see long heatwave conditions.

If they do experience blackouts then it would be a political god send for Cory.

The top end wet season should be pretty average, but the midlatitudes will be buffeted throughout the summer by extreme weather. I live on the central tablelands of NSW and its chilly for late November, so we can expect a continuation of this pattern of too hot too cold.

I can not see any sign of an El Nino in SOI. It is getting close if not already to the end of the drought (or dry period) in Qld and NSW. Note in 2010 there was a talk of El Nino when the opposite happened with all time record rains in parts of Qld followed by floods. The stupid Bligh govt. relied on wrong prediction from fools like Flannery and had the dams at 100% full coming into the rainy summer season. People died in the floods when water had to be release to stop the dam spillway from washing away. The cycles in the SOI (El Nino stangly negative to La Nina strongly positive) vary from 7 to 14 years with an average between 10.5 an 11 close to the orbit of Jupiter and the cycles in the sun.

Went to a lecture on this once, the cycles of QLD flood are strangely aligned to a coincident solar and Luna perigee. Which happens roughly every 23 years. His theory was that the atmospheric high tides this causes results in a more southerly monsoon trough. IE gravity influences weather, who’d have thunk it…

So, in effect, wind power has a ….. MISSING 3800MW ….. ON A DAILY BASIS.

That wouldn’t be so bad Tony.
The real problem is that at any given time there is no guarantee that wind power will be producing any amount…no guarantee whatsoever. How the hell do we account for that?

The real problem is that at any given time there is no guarantee that wind power will be producing any amount…no guarantee whatsoever.

And that is exactly the problem. That’s the treason that a modern day Cicero should be talking about.

A contract to supply needs to be a contract to supply. If you can’t meet the contracted terms then you should be paying a penalty equivalent to the value of the under-supply, plus a poor performance penalty.

When will the Morrison government wake up?

It’s simple to fix.

How?

Require the unreliable producers enter into arrangements with reliable producers to supply on their behalf. Require the unreliable producers to provide back-up.

Let’s cut to the chase and end the war on coal in Australia; that is, let’s repeal the RET and watch all the Rothschild crew hedgies emigrate in quest of easier pickings elsewhere and our power bills magically return to normality.

Yes Serp, that’s another strategy. And, ideally, that should be the approach.

However, perhaps the “politics” make such a course too hard for the lily-livered Liberals and Morrison in particular.

Hence, if they were to rely on the long established commercial reality that a contract to supply is a contract to supply, this issue would quickly be resolved. After all, the Liberals hold themselves out to be the Party of free-enterprise and the rule of law.

Those kind of indirect strategies are the best way to go rather than trying head-on confrontation with the global warming industry. Take them from an unexpected direction, a direction from which they have no wriggle-room. As you say a contract to supply is just that. How can they make a plausible case against that proposition when they claim to be cost-competitive with coal? Let them guarantee supply or pack up and crawl back into their holes. The end result is largely the same, or at least a vast improvement. It’s rather like going after Al Capone for tax evasion rather than for shooting up half of Chicago. He ends up in prison — same result.

A real government would run with that idea and have it enforced in no time. It’s a no-brainer. A real government would also inform the people exactly what the RET is doing to them, plus a whole host of other matters. Meanwhile Morrison claims he is doing everything to get the price of power down . . . except the very things he should be doing. He has knobbled Angus Taylor and restricted him to playing frivolous games around the edges of the issue.

What a shame we only have a Morrison government with no brains or man-bits.

Perhaps you are referring to “Guaranteed” or “Absolute” delivery in a contract for purchase.

In such contract, backup is irrelevant, except insofar as the supplier might require it for their own protection.

Either one Can or Cannot provide what is contracted. If one “can”, then there is no issue. If one “cannot”, then it is the sole responsibility of the supplier to meet the delivery terms of the contract. At any cost.

Power Purchase Agreements ( PPAs) can, and are, written in many ways. Absolute Guarantee is rarely one of them.

Absolute Guaranteed Delivery places 100% of the risk on the supplier. There is no excuse or exception to required delivery without penalty as described in the contract.

Most solar/wind/alternative PPAs are NOT absolute guaranteed delivery contracts. They are in favour of the supplier, not the user.

This is a question of political will and binding contractual obligations.

I agree that you cannot have an absolute guarantee Lance as somethings are outside the suppliers control force majeure causes so to speak. However, supplies of coal, gas, water, wind and sun should not be five of them. If a generator uses a particular energy source for their power generation, they should be able to guarantee that source!

Here I am now in Beenleigh, in an apartment block, and it’s close to the Beenleigh railway station. This is on the main Brisbane Gold Coast line, all electrified, and the trains go by every half hour, one up and one down, barely 100 metres from our apartment. Each ‘train’ has six carriages, and, other than between seven and nine AM, and 5 to 6.30PM, those trains are virtually empty.

I would assume it is the same, network wide.

There is also a train ‘parking lot’ near the station, also in view of our apartment. For all but those peak times, there are between one and six trains parked in that holding area, waiting to be taken back out for peak times. Each train is left fully electrified, with all lights on at all times.

The waste of electricity is stupendous, and I can imagine that there are these holding areas spread across Brisbane, each with a stack of trains in them, all fired up and ready to go.

We are constantly told that as consumers, we need to conserve electricity, and the people who tell us this are those same politicians who are party to the most profligate power consumer in the State.

Each ‘train’ has six carriages, and, other than between seven and nine AM, and 5 to 6.30PM, those trains are virtually empty.
I would assume it is the same, network wide.
There is also a train ‘parking lot’ near the station, also in view of our apartment. For all but those peak times, there are between one and six trains parked in that holding area, waiting to be taken back out for peak times. Each train is left fully electrified, with all lights on at all times.
The waste of electricity is stupendous, and I can imagine that there are these holding areas spread across Brisbane, each with a stack of trains in them, all fired up and ready to go.

Ummm,

Well I suppose that we could turn the trains off as an energy saving measure.

But how would commuters get home?

Also, apart from lighting how much electricity does a “fired up” electric train actually use?

The same when I see the empty Translink buses that go past every 15mins after 7pm. If you are lucky there are about 2 passengers on each..so thats using precious diesel, or LNG or what ever they are on.

All this is very disappointing because every car I see ALWAYS has a person on every seat -heh, heh, heh, but that’s OK.
Electric trains use considerable power, but that’s OK.
Why do we bother talking about this crap? It takes our thoughts away from the main game.
The main game is that the CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
How much longer are we going to be led down the garden path by dumb politicians and dishonest “scientists”?

I saw a coal fired bus in Canberra the other day. Presumably an experiment to show how extremely green our “leaders” are.

Obviously it didn’t say coal fired on the back. It said electric. But where do they think its power was going to come from. There’s no solar power in the evening when it’s back at the depot & plugged into the charger. And most of the time, wind power is inadequate. That leaves nothing but fossil fuels.

Something never addressed when speaking of ‘rain’ networks: When was the last time you saw rainway lines going to the loading dock of your local supermarket or, gasp, ‘petrol station’? I”d suggest it’s never happened. Much as lycra cycle gear has never been made from hemp, or even cotton, for that matter. It’s fine to sit in a café in Brunswick street drinking fair trade coffee, but shouldn’t our moral superiors actually think? Seems to me that the Ministry of Love should keep their officials under greater check… but I’m just one of Winston’s former peers, and this is verboten.

Thirty seven years ago we landed in Sydney with a three year old at death’s door. A fortnight later, after the doctors had brought him back to us for another year and a half, I walked out of the hospital to see what I could see. What I saw was an endless procession of thirty hundredweights of tin carting one person.

It would be difficult to devise a less efficient means of moving people.

I work at Auspost where E bikes are used for some deliveries, I use the Honda NBC110 (absolute beast) but it would be interesting to see if the blackouts occur overnight when most of the recharging is done, not saying the average E bike postie can’t pedal a round but the times would increase naturally factoring rider fatigue and extra burdens placed on the motorbikes to cover them, the past year has seen E bike rounds increased stemming from a company policy initially explained as a safety concern for personnel but I rather suspect from the onus of signing onto the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Say what you want about the humble Honda but no so called renewable alternative can compete with the energy density of petrol or diesel.

Being a small community, we have private contract posties here. The usual beast is a Honda 90, but one day it broke down. I was amazed to hear a mighty Harley throbbing up the footpath to my letterbox. As it took off it sounded much more impressive than a 90. Fastest mail delivery in Australia.

We both became so fed up with ‘himself’ that we applied for and obtained a PO box in the local town. It’s a bit of a nuisance really but preferable to facing that rudeness and stupidity. My husband wrote to the Area Manager, no reply (!) but, having been told we’d have a long wait for a PO box suddenly, surprise, surprise, one came up!
We never go into the shop now, except once in a blue moon when we know he’s not there and one of the nice lady part-time staff is there, so that we can say hello.

There’s still plenty of motorbikes in service its now they’re pushing the EE bikes (electric motor pushbike) that the problems of delivery distance is occurring so the idea of E bike outposts is being considered.

I will always use a motorbike because I’m a reliever and need the range to cover multiple rounds,

Ive seen videos of people attaching 1 kW electric motors to mountain bikes and popping monos up hills on them while changing gears under electric power…..

Other videos Ive seen have been push bikes cruising at 100 kmh ( 65 mph ) while “under a full head of steam” from their electric batteries. I dont think I’d want anything to go wrong at that speed, but it proves the point that it can be easily done. the 250W limit is a bit of a joke, but its all about enbabling our serfdom in the green fiefdom, not actual practical use…..

When unreliable wind power is your major problem, what is the green’s solution? Add more unreliable wind power, of course.

Well, really Tony, what do you expect?

Wind power is only unreliable because you haven’t installed enough, so get to work! Gods, everybody knows that’s why it’s unreliable. There’s never a shortage of wind; there’s always plenty available, somewhere, so it’s because of too many consumers and not enough generators. And, what’s more, don’t forget: it’s free! therefore much cheaper than coal.

‘s alright Annie. As I said above: today has gotten off to a good start: now we’re having Colliding Comments … !
I wonder what else can go wrong? Auckland is built on a volcanic field … which is c. 200 years overdue for the next one (on average). I don’t think I’ll be hit by a tsunami: I’m about 250m above sea level here … there have been some phenomenal meteoritic burn ups lighting up the sky this year … do I, don’t I, go outside?

It would be interesting, but it won’t be as much of a ride or catastrophesightsplashexcitementspectacle fun as Mt Etna’s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwAosTGLyK8). The base rock under me is volcanic from the Waitakeres over ancient seabed, and topped by wet ash (clay) from Taupo’s 4th century pyroclastic puff so the foundation is there … and the slide won’t be into the ocean but into a small rivulet…

recalling mothballed gas-generation plants in Tasmania, Queensland and SA, diesel generators, and “demand response measures’’ that pay users to switch off their power.

“Demand response measures” must be a phrase from the latest edition of the Newspeak dictionary. I’m guessing it means that users who don’t pay to switch off their power will pay those who do? Green jobs on the spot?

Tanking diesel price to save the day? Crude is at $57 so they reckon it can’t go back up to last month’s $76? Can’t go above that? Mothballed gas plants are suddenly viable? Just needed some dusting and airing to lose that camphor smell?

I’ve already spoken to the fairies at the bottom of my garden and they’ve refused to cough up. So that just leaves the taxpayers and consumers. Again.

This is the benign Season, when coal fired plants take time to do maintenance on their Units in the lead up to Summer, when it’s ‘all hands on deck’ for as much power as they can wring out of those coal fired Units. You can watch as Units come back on line, only to have another go down somewhere in the same State or the next State for its turn, it’s so well scheduled.

Currently, there are 14 Units off line, and that’s out of only 48 Units. That takes 6730MW out of the system out of a total of 23000MW Nameplate, and that’s 29% of all that coal fired power off line.

Those remaining Units are delivering their power in a narrower band (between the daily low and the daily high) to ‘cover’ for all that ‘lost’ power’.

On an average working week day, those remaining Units are averaging around 14500MW per hour, and that’s at a Capacity Factor of 89%, day in day out, and that’s just the daily average, because at Peak power time, around 6PM every day, it’s up around 95%.

Coal fired power, even with so much of it ‘missing’ is still delivering between 70 and 75% of all the power required to run the Country.

Until the public become aware of these facts, they’ll blithely think they can do without it.

Like the water which flows from the taps, coal fired power is an absolutely …..ESSENTIAL service.

And don’t forget Tony, that the sheeples ‘think’ that for every whirly gig spinning away out there, that that is less coal that is being consumed!
Little do they know, or maybe even care?, that the vagaries of wind power is balanced out, mostly, by hydro and gas!
BTW Tony, it seems we have had around 9 coal units offline for quite some time! Do we know the reason? Upgrade/Maintenance or something else? The greens would have us believe they are falling apart!

One day last summer I was looking at the ANERO site and noticed Loy Yang B was at 108% and Yallourn was running at 105%. The gas plants were screaming too, whilst wind was dead flat. I don’t know how long the coal plants were running at that rate, but it must be taking its toll on them when it happens regularly and to that extent.

Wouldn’t it be nice if just for once the media reported that the coal plants saved the day as per usual by running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity, instead of “a coal power station broke down today taking out 400MW from the grid, so we need more wind power”.

As I have said, it’s the benign Season, and Units are off line all across this vast coverage area. Sometimes in the Summer and the Winter, there have been times when only two or three Units are off line, and I’m pretty sure that one time last Summer, I saw a day or two when the only Unit in Australia off line was one of those ancient old clunkers at Liddell.

So then, think of this for a minute.

There are only 48 of those Units, so to have 14 of them out of action now removes (as I said above) 6730MW out of the system, and that’s around 28% of the total Nameplate. It’s been like that since I started doing the daily totals again, after having six weeks away while we moved home, and it’s averaging around 8 to 10 Units off line at this time of year.

So, even with those 14 Units off line, coal fired power (in its totality, and with those 14 Units off line being counted as well towards the total 23000MW Nameplate) is still averaging around 70% Capacity Factor for the last seven weeks.

You need to realise here that the only time a coal fired Unit is not generating power is when it’s off line, either for maintenance or Upgrades, as some are now having. Whilst ever they feed coal in at the front end it’s generating power, and when on line, they operate within a range of 84% to 98% of their capacity. The excitation is just varied at times of less consumption so they generate a little less, but at those Peak Power times, they are humming along at ‘full whack’ power delivery. Do a fleet wide Capacity factor check at Peak times and I’ve seen it as high as that 98%, and that’s for every Unit in operation at that time, so some of them must be over that 100% capacity mark.

One Unit at Stanwell holds the World’s record or 1100 days of continuous delivery of power, and that Unit broke the record held by another Unit at that same Stanwell plant of 1073 days of continuous power delivery. That’s three years of continuous power delivery, ….. every single hour of every day for those three years.

Over these last seven weeks alone, just that four Unit plant at Bayswater has delivered considerably more power than EVERY wind plant in Australia combined. That’s four coal fired Units alone delivering more power than a wind total Nameplate more than double that of Bayswater, and Bayswater had Units off line during this same seven week period.

How’s this for madness… we can’t guarantee our own electricity supply, but we’re going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars building electricity and communications infrastructure in Papua New Guinea.

Australia will take the lead in the rollout across Papua New Guinea of a multi-billion-­dollar infrastructure program aimed at providing electricity and delivering the internet to 70 per cent of the Pacific nation, in a move to reassert Western power and push back against Chinese influence in the region.

As the world’s superpowers battle for military and economic dominance in the South Pacific, The Australian can reveal the federal government will commit hundreds of millions of dollars towards a new multi-nation investment to deliver 21st century power and communications infrastructure to Australia’s nearest neighbour.

I know there will be plenty of Aussie contractors and NGOs catching the dollars as they scatter…but, echoing what Skeptikal says, you’d hope this would only come after a decline of candle sales in Adelaide.

Not such big protests for France, unfortunately, even though a lot of straight-up anti-Macron people were there.

Unsurprisingly, the BBC seems to have failed to mention that Macron is at an astoundingly low approval rating as president. In fact, on a numbers basis, he’s less popular than Donald Trump, and has been for quite some time – which seems to incense people when mentioned…

When Trump told him that he would be speaking German were it not for the USA, Macron then stated that he did not believe in diplomacy be tweeting (he tweeted that comment).
I wonder if he’s heard the one about the French tank gearbox with one forward and five reverse gears.

17 Nov: UK Telegraph: Winter is coming for Britain’s energy policies
by Jillian Ambrose
Although temperatures have only just begun to dip, certainty over whether the UK is prepared for the cold has already plunged.
In the space of one week, major policies affecting Britain’s gas and electricity supplies have been thrown into doubt. A European court ruling has brought a cornerstone scheme designed to keep the lights on to an immediate standstill. Meanwhile, Brexit fears have reignited concerns over Britain’s decision to forego investment in gas storage facilities.
“It is clear that the UK is reliant on flexible gas supply sources from the continent to support its market during periods of extreme weather conditions,” says a…

18 Nov: UK Times: Bills may soar after power row
Experts warn of chaos following shock ECJ ruling on back-up supplies
by Rachel Millard
Electricity prices could double after the government suspended the UK’s system for ensuring there is a back-up power supply, experts have warned.
The wholesale power price could hit £121 per megawatt hour (MWh) by next winter unless the so-called capacity market is reinstated, according to a report — risking higher energy bills for millions…

If no solution is found, projects could be pulled as they might no longer be economically viable, and prices could be pushed up by limits on supply. Prices on future electricity contracts leapt by an average of £1.40 per MWh on the day after the announcement, experts said. Analysts at the think-tank Aurora Energy Research forecast power prices next winter of about £60 per MWh if the capacity market is reinstated, but up to £121 if it is not…https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6d6b1258-ea97-11e8-ae8b-93697427c437

16 Nov: SBS: AAP: Greens want to make burning coal a crime
People could face up to seven years in jail for burning coal for fuel under a new policy unveiled by the Greens, who say that “coal kills”.
Greens MP Adam Bandt outlined the policy on Friday in Hobart, which makes it illegal to dig, burn or ship thermal coal from 2030…

16 Nov: Guardian: Greens policy would outlaw thermal coal as it is ‘no longer compatible’ with human life
Under Greens policy, it would no longer be legal to dig, burn or ship thermal coal by 2030
by Katharine Murphy
Against the backdrop of catastrophic destruction in California, Bandt will tell his audience (United Firefighters Union in Hobart) Australia’s biggest chance of avoiding climate catastrophe is by ceasing coal exports…

Australia’s economy relies heavily on coal exports, which in 2017 were valued at $56.5bn, and governments rely on revenue from royalties and tax collections…

“The reality is every tonne of coal that is burnt makes the bushfire threat worse, and every tonne of coal burnt brings us closer to climate catastrophe – in other words the burning of coal is no longer compatible with the protection of human life.”…
Bandt will flag bringing forward legislation, based on laws regulating the use of asbestos, to ban thermal coal exports in January 2030, and impose quotas in the interim so exports scale down between now and the proposed cut-off…

Bandt says the science is clear – the world needs to shut down two-thirds of the coal fleet in the next 12 years, and the rest shortly after…
He will also acknowledge his proposed coal ban isn’t absolute. Bandt says there will continue to be a role in the short term for coking coal, which is used for the manufacture of steel…

Labor is currently finalising the energy policy it will take to the next federal election. It is mulling a package of measures to guide the transition away from coal that will be triggered because of a more ambitious emissions reduction target…

Bandt will tell his audience (United Firefighters Union in Hobart) Australia’s biggest chance of avoiding climate catastrophe is by ceasing coal exports…“Coal is a product that kills people when used according to the seller’s instructions.”

I hope the firefighters tell him a few home truths or better still laugh him out of the venue.

“Coal is a product that kills people when used according to the seller’s instructions.”
If humans had never used coal we would all be living in the 1680s. Or just before the steam engine came around.
Greens are fooligans!

I did a small study of the AEMO reports on power in SA earlier this year. Their main problem is that they conclude that the power generation is adequate, but only if several assumptions all hold true:
1. Consumers in SA reduce their consumption on a per-capita basis. Presumably this will be driven by the increases in electricity prices, which are already extreme & likely to go higher.
2. All the inter-connectors currently in use operate without fault
3. New dispatchable capacity is all built as planned.
4. No dispatchable capacity is decommissioned.

I believe that all of these assumptions are extremely implausible. A second major failing of the AEMO report is that it works on averages. Power systems don’t fail because of averages. They fail because of second-by-second gaps between generation & consumption. This matters at 6 PM each evening, when the rooftop solar stops producing meaningful amounts of electricy. Unless the bulk wind generators are able to take up the load, then the dispatchable capacity (including power drawn from the inter-connectors) will be unable to meet the demand. In summer, there can be entire weeks without meaningful amounts of wind & hence no wind power. That’s just the way it is.

I haven’t read the latest report to see what changed their minds, but it is almost certain that it was something which was already obvious all year.

BTW, I calculated that to heat your home with natural gas was an amazing four times cheaper than using electricity!

Aah, ‘dispatchable capacity’! The latest AEMO newspeak to avoid saying ‘coal and gas-powered generation’, because the voters might catch on to this whole boondoggle. Keep your eyes peeled for the next example and call them out.

18 Nov: Brussels Times: Unavailable nuclear power plants – “January and February look tight”
by Andy Sanchez
Guaranteeing Belgium’s energy supply for the first two months of next year will be “tight”, admits Philippe Van Troeye, the CEO of Engie Electrabel and Engie Benel.
L’Echo published an interview with him on Saturday. Mr Van Troeye said his company is taking its responsibilities seriously. “I haven’t resigned myself to the idea that there will be power cuts just yet”, he said.
“It will be tight in January and February. But it was also tight in November, with just one reactor in operation. Still, we coped. January and February will be colder months, with access to imports less certain”, the Engie CEO said. He has assured the public he is taking his responsibilities seriously.

“First off, we are mobilising our teams to get the reactors back on the network progressively. Second, we will get additional facilities in place, such as cogeneration plants and the plant in Vilvorde which was no longer in service. We have also asked our big industrial clients to be more flexible with their demand”, says Mr Van Troeye. He said a total of 1,000 extra megawatts will be made available, “which is equivalent to another reactor”.
“Power cuts are not a given. We are still working to get additional facilities in place. I haven’t abandoned other avenues just yet either. Electrabel is continuing to offer solutions”, says its CEO.
Floating electric plants are still being explored, “but will be used only as a last resort in a worst-case scenario, should we have no Tihange 3, Doel 1 or 2…”, he added.http://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/13178/unavailable-nuclear-power-plants-january-and-february-look-tight-engie-electrabel-ceo

15 Nov: Reuters: UPDATE 1-France has enough power supply for the winter – RTE
by Bate Felix
France has enough power supply for the winter but needs to be vigilant if there is a cold spell from mid-January through to the end of February when supply is expected to be tight due to nuclear outages, grid operator RTE said on Thursday.
RTE said in its winter and medium-term outlook that up to 2020, electricity demand and supply is expected to be balanced but without any margin, due to the expected shutdown of some thermal power generation units.

RTE’s director of operations Jean-Paul Roubin said analysis showed that under normal weather conditions, demand was expected to remain stable with peak demand seen at around 85 gigawatts (GW), the same level as last winter.
Roubin, speaking at a news conference, said French nuclear power supply, which accounts for over 75 percent of its electricity needs, was expected to increase this winter compared with last year due to fewer outages, while hydro power supply was also expected to be stable.

But between mid-January and the end of February supply could be tight if there is a prolonged cold spell because EDF has planned maintenance outages at five nuclear reactors. Two reactors could be halted for several weeks.
This situation could lead to after market measures including calls to industrial users and consumers to curb consumption, increased imports from neighbours and lowering voltage on the network.

After winter 2020, France will have enough supply to ***potentially allow it to ***gradually shut down five coal power units in Cordemais, Havre, Gardanne and Saint-Avold, and also the Fessenheim nuclear power plant ***under certain conditions.https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1XQ2E9

18 Nov: UK Times: Turbines may be turfing out peat’s carbon-cutting benefits
Study says wind farms’ peatland foundations are a natural store of carbon — and the structures may be eroding the soil’s role
by Julia Horton
Supersizing thousands of wind turbines across Scotland’s countryside may not be the most green way to cut global warming because the structures could be cancelling out the carbon-cutting contribution made by the ground underneath them, a government-funded report has warned.

The majority of wind farms are on peatland, where weather conditions are typically better for producing maximum green power to help reduce carbon emissions. But experts at Glasgow and Aberdeen universities point out that the soil they are built on is also a valuable natural store of carbon that cuts emissions — and the turbines could be affecting that role.

[continuing]
Turbines across Scotland are set to rise in height from about 100 metres to 170 metres to harness “better wind”, reducing overall numbers and cutting bills for consumers as the industry works to meet government renewable energy targets.

However, a report commissioned by the industry-led Construction Scotland Innovation Centre, which is supported by government body the Scottish Funding Council, concludes that there is still insufficient evidence to prove that wind farms do not damage peat’s carbon storage capacity long term, therefore work upgrading turbines to meet key climate change targets should start with the minority built on peat-free land.

In the most detailed report to date into the sustainability of replacing Scotland’s turbines as the first generation come to the end of their operational life, the authors also say it would be better to build new foundations for bigger turbines from scratch: “As minerogenic [non-peat] soils play less of a role in carbon sequestration than peat soils . . . the most environmentally friendly approach appears to be to build a new foundation to accommodate the larger [turbine, rather] than re-engineering an existing foundation. This uses less resources and could suggest that [upgrading] should first consider if wind farms on minerogenic soils can help meet the drive for more energy production from renewable sources.”

Report co-author Susan Waldron, a professor of biogeochemistry at Glasgow University, said: “We still do not know if peatlands under wind farms are keeping carbon they have, or fixing or losing it.”

Anti-wind farm group Scotland Against Spin said the report showed that supersizing turbines was a bad idea.

Industry group Scottish Renewables said it was “in the process of refreshing good practice guidance, including advice on building on peatland and the potential re-use of turbine bases where possible”.

A Scottish government spokesman said it supported upgrading “in principle” while protecting the country’s natural heritage, which included assessing and minimising the “carbon impact” of wind farms on peatland.

They become the new standing stones mystery for those doing docos in a 1000 years time. I can hear an Attenboroughy voice wondering about the mustery of row upon row of these mysterious 40 tonne concrete cubes with metal rods in them.

17 Nov: UK Telegraph: Ministers braced smart meter scolding from spending watchdog
By Jillian Ambrose
Government ministers are braced for blistering criticism from the ­National Audit Office this week over its shambolic handling of the £11bn smart meter roll-out.
The public spending watchdog is finalising the details of a scathing report into the heavily delayed project, which is set to be made public this week. The report is expected to criticise the roll-out, which is running over schedule and budget due to delays to the software underpinning the digital meters.

As a result, 10 times more first- generation meters than expected have been fitted into homes by energy suppliers while waiting for the second generation network upgrades to take effect.
The 10m meters will require further spending to bring them up to date with the upgraded system so that they won’t become “dumb”…

18 Nov: UK Independent: Government spending foreign aid money to promote fracking in China
Exclusive: “It’s a flagrant misuse of the UK’s aid budget to fund the fossil fuel industry overseas when the priority must be shifting to low carbon energy and boosting climate resilience”
by Josh Gabattsiss
But even with climate change threatening the developing world with droughts, flooding and heatwaves, millions have been spent on fossil fuel investment abroad over the past two years.
This includes two schemes aiming to “export the UK’s expertise in shale gas regulation” to China, as controversy about new drilling sites rages back in Britain…

Twelve of the 16 fossil fuel projects supported by the Prosperity Fund between 2016-2018 made references to creating opportunities for companies in other nations including the UK.
Anna Markova, who authored the report, said this hinted at why certain projects had been chosen, with British firms like BP known to be exploring shale gas extraction in China…

“The third rail of a nation’s politics is a metaphor for any issue so controversial that it is “charged” and “untouchable” to the extent that any politician or public official who dares to broach the subject will invariably suffer politically. The metaphor comes from the high-voltage third rail in some electric railwaysystems.

Touching a third rail can result in electrocution, so usage of the metaphor in political situations relates to the risk of “political suicide” that a person would face by associating with a certain cause, topic, or subject having a highly controversial or offensive nature.”

I understand that coconut shell and husk containing significant amounts of combustible carbon compounds may provide an environmentally friendly source of fuel and if given the label “biofuel” will be adequate or something.

Of course there are only coconuts on the coast but transport inland should solve the problem and projects like the Sepik Highway show how it’s done.

Liberals in Victoria are lost on ambient power sources. Their stance is for 75% Australian content for large scale projects. Given all parts are imported that requirement just pushes prices up.

Will not matter how the elections tilt this weekend because the two main parties both support ambients. If lights go out, there will be blaming but none of it will be directed at the clear fact that the neither wind nor sun are constantly available energy sources.

we can all rest easy this summer, the battery will save us. The wind is always blowing somewhere and the next big silver bullet renewable “solution” is immininent/around the corner/just over the horizon. If only the grid ran on wishful thinking.

The new world of electricity “demand management”.
– Get major users to reduce demand – ie stop industry working productively. Force them overseas.
– Get major users to install their own supply, often with diesel generators.
– Pay small consumers $20 per “event” to allow suppliers to raise your air conditioning to 28 degrees.
– More intermittent solar and wind that reduce utilisation and therefore economics of reliable generators, without any obligation for guaranteed supply.
Meanwhile pollies keep stating that they are going to deliver lower electricity prices – when hell freezes over.

“Sunday on CBS’s’ “Face the Nation,” Gov. Jerry Brown (D) said the increasing wildfires in California meant that “in less than five years” the “worst skeptics” were going to be believers in climate change.”

This is the problem. People who have the Climate Change faith think skeptics are simply heretics, denying the faith because they do not believe. They do not have faith. Soon they will be believers?

Really?

In fact skeptics do not believe in the man’s control over CO2 levels, temperatures and the many climates because what started as a conjecture has been contradicted by 30 years of hard evidence. Skeptics are not lost sheep who will find their way back to the fold and the comfort of the herd. They also do not want to be herded over the nearest cliff with unbelievably high power prices and random, intermittent power generation.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change invented this religion in 1988 to justify its own existence and get funding. What a success it has been. Train engineer head of the PCC Pachauri (not a meteorologist) travelled 360,000km a year to spread his dire warning about flying, while writing his soft porn novels. So do most of Hollywood (also not meteorologists). Australia’s Climate Commissioners (not a single meteorologist) also warned of the dangers.

However after 30 years, and regular ten year apocalyptic warnings but no visible change in anything, it is obviously unscientific nonsense.

We humans do not and cannot control CO2 levels. They are controlled by ocean surface temperature. Besides a simple measurement proves there is almost no industrial CO2 in the air.

Not only CO2 but all our weather is controlled by ocean surface temperatures. Certainly all the rain without which we escapees from the oceans and the plants could not survive on dry land.

Its the problem with the left of politics. Officially they want to save the planet, universal health care, no wars, no lack of food or cheap housing and no borders and no meat and no dirty coal or pollution. Socialism and communism reinvented by rich countries. However as Adam Bandt said to me, “we tell them what they want to hear and when we get power, we do what we like”.

These Hollywood moralists support windmills in rich countries which don’t need them. Climate moralists close down power stations to save themselves and no one else and build windmills with money stolen from the poor who cannot afford power. They stop forest clearing so they can build holiday houses in the woods and then blame others and Extreme Climate Change when the fires come.

These self indulgent saviours look after themselves while billions suffer. Perversely they are desperately against Fascism when they are the self indulgent rich fascists. Behind them are the power hungry no borders EU/UN thousands of rich bureaucrats who want a gigantic army to fight, against whom exactly?

Its no different to the main cause of the Victorian horror fires – the greenie infested govt which stops proper back burning and proper bushfire fuel management.

If you back burn, you get rid of the fuel.

But lets not forget Agenda 21 and UN-driven rewilding plan appears to be to drive people out of the bulk of the countryside and into mega-cities. A few fires might accelerate that trend, although I hope people rebuild to stick it to the green numpties….

Probably made worse over there buy the fractured private/federal/state ownership of the forested areas, plus the Aericans love of breaking things up by counties and agencies so there are a myriad of boundaries and jurisdictions to work across.

Let the lesson begin soon. This nation needs a wake up call if we are to rid ourselves of a whole horde of useless politicians in both major parties if not the parties themselves. I don’t any other way for things to turn around apart from the slow process of ever increasing power prices, which could to lead a similar result but much later.

Your voting pattern is much the same as what I have been proposing for over a year now. Yet not enough are even bothering to think that way, which in itself says a lot about how much apathy there is still around. If people want a change then they have to make it so and not just whine about things. It won’t happen by itself. The next election will be a great litmus test of voter sentiment and awareness. We will have to wait and see if things change.

The election will be fought over immigration and energy, so if the majors maintain the status quo then there is no reason to vote for an independent, its crash and burn time and I’ll be voting Informal.

Looking over the 2018 Victorian group voting tickets, good grief what abysmal choices for anyone trying to make any headway towards electing half sane people in our positions of power.

I’ll be posting my order of voting later this week if anyone’s interested, it’ll be similar to yours Dennis but I’m torn for placing the Victorian Socialists Party dead last as the idea and hide of people in our nation that think they can openly spit upon everything that created it really irks me to no end!

Yep Yonniestone. I was aghast when I saw the 8 choices for my electorate! I could only identify ONE conservative independent, of course the Liberal candidate. The others would probably all preference Labour above Liberal. My solution? Vote Liberal first! Only way to make sure Labour gets the message! Of course I put Labour and Greens last, but the hodgepodge of minor parties and independents? Just closed my eyes and numbered them the best!
Voted for a minor party in the Upper House. Dunno if I chose right, but by that stage, I was over it!
if a thinking person is bamboozled? by this election, how are the sheeple gonna go? I tend to fear that Dan will get back in, on the backs of those so called independents and minor parties!
One thing is for certain, the dearth of conservative candidates, is a serious concern!

I’m in the Buningyong electorate where Michaela Settle is running for the ALP, the other week she was asked by media if She’d cooperate with police over the ‘Red Shirts’ investigation “Absolutely” was the reply and two days later when approached by police for questions she exercised her right not to comment.

Just like that no regrets or considerations a lie told like an automated response, these are the types politics attracts and yes they always existed but not at these plague proportions, the ballots are now leaning heavy to the left and the average pleb still thinks Liberal and Labor are so far apart on everything its like the yin and yang status quo of old, they fail to see the very real danger of such political beliefs coming to power will destroy anything they built, saved, grew or enjoyed and it will do so with such prejudice and self righteousness it will not be believed until experienced.

On the matter of water, not many dams of significance have been built over the last 100 years while our population has increased from about 5 million to the current estimated 25 million projected. Yet it’s set to increase to 35-40 million in as little as 30 years! Of course some propose we use tank water and reduce our water usage but such solutions are limited, intermittent and unreliable at best. Strange how a whole nation thinks it can survive economically by relying more and more on intermittent and unreliable sources of power and water. Imagine if we had to use the same approach to breathable air. I suppose that would be one quick and easy way to reduce the population drastically. It really is about time to consider and treat those who support renewables and the like as a significant if not our primary source of power and water in effect as terrorists.

Of course you’re right. If you double the population and don’t provide the infrastructure, then it’s going to turn out badly.

Over here in WA, the local Water Corporation is really beating the global warming drum. As an organisation, they don’t build dams or anything, but make adverts which finish with “Climate Change is real”. Which of course it is, NATURALLY. Quite deceptive. And the images of guys dressed up as cute bush animals throwing the spotlight onto a householder who dares to turn on a sprinkler in the middle of the night is downright creepy. Reminds me of the KGB.
Cheers,

They are riding on the shoulders of the previous generations foresight, and the gradual improvements in efficiency. That can only be driven so far if population continues to rise. Sortages are inevtiable if they continue to ignore reality. A dangerous game when leadtimes are so long. A drought in the worng time window , Murhpys Law style , would be devastating.

18 Nov: TheConversation: Michelle Grattan: 47% say prioritise cutting power bills: Ipsos
Fresh focus will turn to the energy debate this week, with a Fairfax Ipsos poll showing 47% of Australians support giving the main priority to cutting bills, and Labor expected to release details of its energy policy.
The Ipsos poll found 39% want the federal government to give the main priority to reducing carbon emissions, while 13% were most concerned with reducing the risk of blackouts…http://theconversation.com/47-say-prioritise-cutting-power-bills-ipsos-107150

Emissions reduction target? They are afraid to call it a Carbon Dioxide reduction target. Not only would that sound silly, someone might ask how succesful it has been. Say in suffering South Australia.

both these items being spruiked on Macquarie Network news bulletins today:

18 Nov: SMH: Queensland battery grants and loans scheme to push use of renewable energy
By Jocelyn Garcia
•Grants of $3000 and $10,000 loans for 1000 solar and battery systems.
•Grants of $3000 and loans of up to $6,000 for 500 batteries.
•All loans are interest-free.
Energy Minister Dr Anthony Lynham said 1500 Queensland households and small businesses would be able to cut their power bills by storing solar power and using it after sunset.
“From tomorrow, Queensland householders can jump online and apply for interest-free loans of up to $10,000 and grants of $3000 to purchase batteries or combined solar-battery systems,” he said.
“A high energy-using household that contributes $2000 to $3000 towards the upfront cost of their solar and battery system may save $400 a year, even after taking into account their interest-free loan repayments.
“Queensland’s small businesses can also apply for up to a $3000 grant.”…

South Coast Register: AAP: NSW Labor to scrap birth certificate fee
by Heather McNab
Based on Parliamentary Budget Office forecasts, the policy would cover the some 99,000 birth registrations projected for 2019/20 and cost $16.8 million to implement, Labor claims.
“We are not here to make a buck off you but to help you get ahead in life,” (state Opposition Leader Michael) Daley said…
Labor has also promised free travel for school children, cashback on the M4 motorway for private vehicles and fare refunds for avoidable delays of more than 30 minutes on trains.https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/5763732/nsw-labor-to-scrap-birth-certificate-fee/

19 Nov: Energy Matters: Solar panel installations cost to increase from 1 Jan 2019
STC support from Australia’s Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme will decrease next year, raising the solar panel installations cost across the nation.
The scheme awards a number of small-scale technology certificates (STCs) to households and businesses that install solar panels. The size of the solar power system determines the number of STCs for the system.
The dollar value of these STCs is discounted from the upfront cost of the installation. At the moment, this can amount to thousands of dollars. Supply and demand determines the price of the STC.

However, Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor recently confirmed the scheme will be phased out over the next twelve years. It will cease issuing STCs altogether in 2030.
Australia’s solar boom is largely the result of the substantial support the scheme offers.

Until 1 January 2019, a 5.3 kW solar panel system installed in Darwin attracts 105 STCs.
In 2019, the same system will attract 97 STCs. Five years from now that figure will be 65; ten years from now, 24. By 2030, the number will be zero.
Each STC has a dollar value set by the market. This varies due to supply and demand. For this example, let’s say the value is $35, although it can be as high as $40.
If we multiply $35 by 105 – the number of STCs a 5.3 kW system attracts in Darwin in 2018 – we get $3,675. This is deducted from the up front cost of installation.
But five years from now, when the same system earns only 65 STCs, the discount will be $2,275. It will then fall each year until it reaches zero in 2030.

This same situation applies whether you live in Darwin, Melbourne, Sydney or anywhere else in Australia. It means the sooner you install rooftop solar, the less you pay…

This will be a little long and mainly for the benefit of Victorian viewers with the election coming up next weekend. Others may read it and weep in regard to what would be politicians beleive and will say about renewables.

My question to my Labor candidate (VIC is a Labor State but this is a Liberal electorate at the moment)

Hi Sally

I am a non aligned voter located in Taggerty, in the electorate of Eildon.

Daniel Andrews said yesterday that deploying solar widely through Victoria would lower power costs. Would you be able to explain the mechanism by which costs will fall? I do understand how that can happen and infact believe the reverse will happen.

My view is that solar power:

- is being subsidised , which is a cost
- destablises the grid through intermittency, which adds complexity, which is a cost
- at large scale generates RET certificates which have to be purchased , which is an added cost to other generators
- has additional maintenance and periodic replacement costs which are always ignored

I am trying to work out if I just dont understand the cost lowering mechanism or promoters are being naive or disingenous. Can you assist please?

***********************************

the response:

Hi Steve,

Thanks for contacting me. You obviously know your stuff and I agree that these complexities are very real and need to be worked through. Nonetheless, there is more to the bigger picture of grid transition than just these points, so here are a few observations in response to your view.

- the main cause of grid instability is ageing generators that can’t cope with high demand on very hot days and fail, causing kWh prices to surge to extreme levels, directly impacting consumers’ pockets
- unlike these ageing generators, solar and wind power is most reliable on very hot days
- increasing supply to the grid with 700,000+ solar homes is ultimately going to lower the cost of power for consumers by easing reliance on ageing power infrastructure which is unstable and causes price surges
- the national energy grid is in transition and no one is arguing that wind and solar aren’t a part of our energy future, there is just some disagreement about what part they’ll play. By that I mean that state and federal governments and opposition parties are all pitching to invest tax payer money into new energy supply options
- the Labor government in Victoria is backing renewables. Labor has built or is building almost 3,900 MW of new clean renewables – almost two and a half times the capacity of the former Hazelwood Power Station.

Here’s some stuff I’ve been reading on the topic too, in case it’s of interest:

my response (I will leave it at this as there is no point in a slanging match)

Thanks Sally.

Some of those points are frankly just not correct, and none of them address the core question of how renewables reduce price. If it was possible SA, Denmark and Germany would have the cheapest power in the world and the Germans would not be back pedalling on Energiewiende (the wind debacle). Note SA’s oops! we need to spend half a billion on batteries and generators to try and stabilise our mess before the summer elections.

- the main cause of grid instability is ageing generators that can’t cope with high demand on very hot days and fail, causing kWh prices to surge to extreme levels, directly impacting consumers’ pockets

those ageing generators are maintainable machines, part of what has held up the national grid for 50 years. A key component of one was shipped from Loy Yang recently for maintenance. If you choose to shut them down a la Hazelwood so you have insufficient capacity then of course you dont have the resources to meet demand. That has zero to do with the type of generator. They do not cause “instability” they are massive sources of stable power that maintain voltage and frequency of the supply in a way that diffuse low power sources like wind and solar cannot. It appears we have learnt nothing from the SA experience.

- unlike these ageing generators, solar and wind power is most reliable on very hot days

good grief Sally where do you get this from? Solar power actually reduces on hot days as panel efficiency drops with heat, they work best on cooler sunny days as they like solar radiation not heat. One of the core problems with wind power is that summer is in fact not very windy, hot still days are common and in the SA case wind output for the entire State can be zero in the late afternoon of a heatwave with a high centred on SA. Far from being most reliable , one has reduced output and will rapidly trail to zero in the afternoon and wind may not be present at all

- increasing supply to the grid with 700,000+ solar homes is ultimately going to lower the cost of power for consumers by easing reliance on ageing power infrastructure which is unstable and causes price surges

how do you imagine reliance will be reduced on “ageing power infrastructure” ? solar gives you some power either side of lunchtime, not very much anytime else. What will power these 700,000+ homes when for the 16 hours a day solar does very little? Please dont say we just hope the wind is blowing. The East Coast grid needs 18GW (Gigawatts) standing still at 4AM in the morning and only goes up from there. The reality is that solar , if used for core power generation must be backed up by some kind of fossil fuelled backup because it goes away for much of the day and there is no widely deployable grid scale storage system yet in existance.

- the national energy grid is in transition and no one is arguing that wind and solar aren’t a part of our energy future, there is just some disagreement about what part they’ll play. By that I mean that state and federal governments and opposition parties are all pitching to invest tax payer money into new energy supply options

Sally, there is no transition, thats just marketing. Renewables are being added around the edges and rely on fossil generators when they either run out of output, or as the AEMO directs in SA almost daily they have to run to maintain grid stability (frequency and voltage) because renewable may dissapear at any moment and cant be too high a % of the energy mix for security reasons.

- the Labor government in Victoria is backing renewables. Labor has built or is building almost 3,900 MW of new clean renewables – almost two and a half times the capacity of the former Hazelwood Power Station.

Two and a half times the capacity of Hazelwood? Look up renewable power capacity factor. Its the amount of power you really get out of wind and solar as opposed to peak output written on the nameplate. Its typically around 30% to 40% depending on locations. Hazelwood ran for decades night and day at 95% + its rated output. Renewables will come and go depending on daylight and weather. You are comparing apples and oranges. Setting aside intermittency and assuming that all these “clean” renewables delivery power when you want it or you could store it and use it later, then at 40% you might be getting close to one Hazelwood. Two and a half times is just a fantasy.

Thanks for taking the time to respond. The basic question of how renewables can ever reduce prices remains unanswered , but you have confirmed for me what your Party is thinking in this area, which is the one that will influence my vote this cycle. Politicians really need to start talking with Engineers , rather than other politicians and bureaucrats and managers in regard to the power grid. There is so much wishful thinking going on at the moment its getting ridiculous.

Ive also been through a very long winded to and fro with our Federal member. I just hope that maybe a hearing contrary thought might trigger an interest in looking at the issue a little more deeply, and not just keep believing in comfortable fairy tales.

Well done Yarpos. I wrote a comprehensive paper for our state and federal members some time ago – it was never acknowledged. What hope do we have when our politicians cannot understand the limitations of wind and solar? There is no chance that they will ever be able to grasp the fact that IPCC models are a complete sham.

18 Nov: TimesOfIndia: BASIC nations to meet tomorrow to secure their common intere ..
by Vishwa Mohan
NEW DELHI: Ahead of the UN climate conference, environment mministers and top negotiators of BASIC nations — Brazil, South Africa, India and China — will brainstorm here in a two-day meeting beginning on Monday on how not to let rich nations pass gaps in their ‘pre-2020 climate efforts’ to the post-2020 period…
Developing countries, including the BASIC group, will work to ensure that all decisions at COP24 adhere to the core principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, including equity and Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).

18 Nov: SMH: Fairfax-Ipsos poll has a simple message to MPs: cut carbon emissions as well as power bills
by David Crowe
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos survey shows that 39 per cent of voters want to put a priority on reducing carbon emissions, while another 47 per cent want lower energy bills first…
The gap between the two groups is not huge and any realistic national policy has to achieve both objectives: meet Australian commitments on climate change and spare households from price hikes…

18 Nov: AFR: Australian exports to India will be driven by coal and competition
by Matt Canavan (minister for resources and northern Australia)
Last week the International Energy Agency forecast that coal demand is set to grow by 492 million tonnes in the Asia Pacific region by 2040. Australia exports just under 400 million tonnes so this is a massive opportunity for us to create more wealth and more jobs right nationwide. The IEA conclude that new mines in Australia, such as Adani’s, would be required to meet this increased demand.

The biggest opportunity lies in India. With coal demand there set to grow by over 600 million tonnes by 2040. Last year, India imported 160 million tonnes of thermal coal but Australia accounted for just 3 million tonnes of that. As the world’s largest coal exporter that performance is not good enough.

“The co-author of a much-hyped, peer-reviewed, alarmist paper claiming to have found a huge, unexpected build-up of global warming heat in the oceans has admitted: “We really muffed” the calculations.
According to the paper by Laure Resplandy et al, published this month in the prestigious journal Nature, a lot of the missing heat from global warming — 60 percent more than hitherto thought — has been absorbed by the oceans.

Naturally, this shocking discovery caused much excitement across mainstream media and was widely reported by environmental correspondents as proof that the global warming crisis was more serious than evah.

However, their exultant doom-mongering has been shortlived. An independent analyst, Nic Lewis, examined the paper and quickly spotted it was based on flawed math.”

18 Nov: WRAL: The World, Built by China
By Derek Watkins, K.K. Rebecca Lai and Keith Bradsher, New York Times
Seven dams generate almost half of Cambodia’s electricity. China built and paid for all of them…
South Africa turned to China for $1.5 billion for a coal-fired power plant. It is one of at least 63 such plants financed by China around the world, which collectively pollute more than Spain…

These are among the more than 600 projects around the world that China has financed to win new friends and develop new markets…

The New York Times examined nearly 600 projects that China helped finance in the last decade, through billions of dollars in grants, loans and investments. Taken together, they show the scope and motivation of China’s strategy:
— 41 pipelines and other oil and gas infrastructure help China secure valuable resources.
— 203 bridges, roads and railways create new ways for China to move its goods around the world.
— 199 power plants — for nuclear, natural gas, coal and renewables — give China new markets for its construction and equipment companies…

There are at least 112 countries where China has financed projects. While most fall under its infrastructure plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has pushed beyond those boundaries…

”
It is thus quite surprising that the new USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada) trade agreement which is to replace NAFTA contains a new chapter (24) on Environment which was not in the NAFTA agreement. The three Parties recognize Sustainable Development (SD), the lynchpin of Agenda 21 now morphed into Agenda 2030, as an essential ingredient without which trade cannot exist.

……………

“Under LOST, “intelligence and submarine maneuvers in territorial waters would be restricted and regulated”
Under LOST, “intelligence and submarine maneuvers in territorial waters would be restricted and regulated.” It is thus not in the national security interest of the United States to ever ratify this treaty.

LOST requires policies that regulate deep-sea mining, rules and regulations to control and prevent marine pollution, and control of corporations who cannot bring lawsuits independently. They must depend on the country of origin to plead their case in front of the United Nations agency.

President Reagan objected to the Principle of the “Common Heritage of Mankind,” which instructed that marine resources belong to all mankind and cannot be exploited by one nation.

According to Heritage Foundation, the UN “Authority” must regulate mineral resources by asking companies to pay an application fee and to reserve an extra site for the “Authority” to “utilize its own mining efforts.”

A corporation must also pay an annual fee, up to 7 percent of its annual profits, and share its mining and navigational technology. Mining permits are granted or withheld by the “Authority” which is composed of mostly developing countries.”

was wondering what the Met Office was up to, til I got to ***so if no further investment takes place:

Updated 19 Nov: UK Sun: SOLAR BLAST UK Weather – Met Office warning: Britain faces being crippled by storms in space that could spark a five-day blackout and destroy your computer
Modern life as we know it in the United Kingdom could be brought to a halt by huge flares generating intense magnetic fields over Earth, burning out delicate electronics in a flash
By Patrick Knox
The Met Office has told UK ministers a flare up of the kind that has hit Earth two or three times in 200 years would cost the country £16bn in catastrophic damage.
Such flares generate intense magnetic fields over Earth which in a flash could burn out delicate electronics and even set them on fire, The Sunday Times reports (LINK)…

The Met Office study said: “We find that for a one-in-100-year event, with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9bn.

“With existing satellites nearing the end of their life, forecasting capability will decrease in coming years, ***so if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather.”…
The report, co-authored with scientists from the British Antarctic Survey, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and Cambridge University said the UK should construct an early warning system…

The National Grid would therefore prepare its power network and the Government warn computer users to switch off their devices.

17 Nov: CleanTechnica: Steve Hanley: 50 MWh Tesla Battery Commissioned At Australian Solar Power Plant
(Steve Hanley writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may take him)
A 25 MW/50 MWh Tesla grid-scale battery was commissioned this week at the 60 MW Gannawarra solar power plant north of Melbourne in the Australian state of Victoria. This makes the Gannawarra facility the largest in the country to be retrofitted with a storage battery. Last month, installation of a 30 MW/30 MWh battery at the Ballarat power station in Victoria was completed. That battery is expected to begin operations before next summer.

The battery is owned by Australia’s renewables developer Edify Energy and Germany’s Wirsol and operated by EnergyAustralia under a long-term power purchase agreement, according to PV Magazine. Both batteries were paid for by a $50 million grant from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the government of Victoria, with each contributing $25 million…
Below is a video of the (Gannawarra) installation process…VIDEO

While the Australian government dithers and diddles about moving away from coal and toward renewables, the Australian states are filling the policy void and creating new commercial models for renewable energy and storage facilities in Australia.
Why is that? Are they being paid off by George Soros and Tom Steyer? Are they saddling their residents with burdensome new utility rates so they can reap enormous financial rewards? Have they simply been brainwashed by green energy activists who slip pillow speakers under their heads at night playing an endless stream of socialist pablum?

No, they are doing it because renewable energy coupled with battery storage makes more economic sense and is more resilient than conventional methods of generating and distributing electricity. Australia has the largest coal deposits in the world. Many Australians are horrified the country can’t just dig it all up and sell it to China and Vietnam and India.

Asking people to change their behavior for a good social purpose seldom gets very far. Asking people to change their behavior to save money works a whole lot better. That’s what’s happening in Victoria today as well as in South Australia, Queensland, New South Wales, the Northern Territories, and Western Australia. The toothless, muddle-headed national government has made itself irrelevant to energy policy in Australia, proving once again that money is more important than ideology every time.https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/17/50-mwh-tesla-battery-commissioned-at-australian-solar-power-plant/

First signs of summer in Adelaide and Melbourne with temperatures above 30 degrees, and spot prices have jumped to over $100/MWhr in mid afternoon despite solar and average winds. Forecast prices for the evening peak are above $250. To meet demand of 5,500 MW in Vic, current imports are 620 MW from NSW and 480 from Tas with 300 MW exports to SA where wind is supplying 25% of demand. In Vic wind is supplying 8% of demand, and brown coal about 60%. Hydro has soared to over 1000 MW mid afternoon – too bad if we run out of water by late summer. Demand management – coming closer all the time unless we start building more dispatchable and affordable generators. No more intermittents through the rotten RET and state government mandates.

19 Nov: New Straits Times: Najib at MACC over solar panel project probe
by Zanariah Abd Mutalib
PUTRAJAYA: Former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has arrived at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) headquarters here to have his statement recorded over a solar hybrid project for schools in Sarawak…
The former premier has been called up by the MACC several times. Najib was previously questioned on the controversial RM1.25 billion project on Nov 8…

On Nov 15, Najib’s wife, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor, was charged with two counts of soliciting RM187.5 million and receiving RM1.5 million for the solar hybrid project for 369 rural schools in Sarawak.
On the first count, Rosmah was alleged to have solicited RM187.5 million, which is 15 per cent of the value of a contract from Saidi Abang Samsudin, the managing director of Jepak Holdings Sdn Bhd…

In the second charge, Rosmah was alleged to have received RM1.5 million from the same person to obtain the same project at a premise at No 11, Jalan Langgak Duta, Taman Duta, here on Sept 7, last year.
Both charges, framed under Section 16 (a) (A) of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Act 2009, carries a jail term of up to 20 years with a fine of up to five times the value of the graft or RM10,000, whichever is higher, upon conviction.https://sg.news.yahoo.com/najib-macc-over-solar-panel-021344319.html

15 Nov: Malaysian Reserve: The RM1.3b solar project that wasn’t, and the land that was misappropriated
By RAHIMI YUNUS
The idea of initiating a solar project that would light up 369 rural schools in Sarawak and provide better facilities for school children is certainly a noble cause.
The RM1.25 billion project was supposed to include the supply of diesel to generate electricity and the installation of solar hybrid systems in the chosen off-grid schools that have been relying on generators.
A check by the media somehow proved that none of the designated schools was installed with the proposed system.

That led to a probe by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) on the solar hybrid scandal in April, a month prior to the 14th General Election (GE14) on May 9.
Yesterday, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor and her former aide Datuk Rizal Mansor were quizzed for hours by the graft-buster in relation to the “missing solar panels”.
The solar hybrid project might have gone wrong from the word go, it seems…

Earlier, on June 10, a news item in the Sarawak Report highlighted that former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Razak had allegedly authorised the Education Ministry in January 2017 to appoint a company to supply solar panels to 369 schools in Sarawak, in favour of the company over other qualified contractors.
Later, the Education Ministry initiated an internal investigation to identify the individuals who were involved in the misappropriation of the contract…READ ONhttps://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/11/15/the-rm1-3b-solar-project-that-wasnt-and-the-land-that-was-misappropriated/

OT and probably going to go into moderation but Judges should be required to those who they bail must live with them until their court case is heard .
Figure that if accepted there will be fewer 7 year olds being attacked in toilets ,fewer terrorists committing atrocities and fewer murders committed by those with dubious backgrounds and past history .

18 Nov: Guardian: Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power casts shadow over UN environment conference
Participants at biodiversity convention say Amazon protections are under threat
by Jonathan Watts in Sharm el-Sheikh
Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power in Brazil has cast a shadow over the first global environment conference since the ultra-nationalist was elected to lead the most biodiverse nation on Earth.

Participants at the the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, which opened in Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday, expressed concerns that the former army captain would disrupt international efforts to prevent the collapse of natural life support systems in the same way that Donald Trump is undermining cooperation to stabilise the climate…

Marco Lambertini, the head of WWF, said he hoped Bolsonaro would look at the bigger picture once he takes office. “Some of his statements are worrying, but we don’t want to prejudge. Politicians often say one thing in a campaign and another when faced with the reality of holding power. We’ll wait and see,” he said.
Lambertini added that the risks facing the Amazon were enormous. “This is an ecosystem that is fundamental for the whole world. Research papers have shown the loss of another 20% of the forest would be super-dangerous, pushing the Amazon past the point of no return so it would no longer be a rainforest but a savannah. This would affect rainfall patterns far beyond Brazil’s borders.”
He said that has faith in the Brazilian public on the issue: “We have seen a huge level of support for biodiversity protection in Brazil. I don’t think people voted for Bolsonaro because of his environmental agenda.”…

Delegates have bombarded the Brazilian participants with questions ***and sympathy, knowing that Bolsonaro has previously decried environmentalists, saying on one occasion: “This cowardly business of international NGOs like WWF and so many others from England sticking their noses into Brazil is going to end! This tomfoolery stops right here!”…
The official delegation is wary of commenting during the transition period…

Marcel Kok, the international biodiversity programme leader at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, said world politics was shifting in a direction that made it harder to take concerted global action.
Kok told delegates at a side event: “If we compare the situation to 2010, it has become much more difficult to get international cooperation, due to the rise of populism and nationalism.”…

None of these impact our electricity. The Renewable Energy(Electricity) Act 2000 is the key. Its clear intention is to stop carbon fuels being used by ripping them off at the retail level and handing the cash to build up windmills and solar without anyone knowing. No member of the public has ever seen one of these ‘certificates’. That’s because ‘certificates’ don’t even exist. Just a blip on the computers of the Clean Energy Regulator which monitors and registers the ‘trade’. A paperless crime designed in Canberra.

Keep the targets. Push them up and down. Direct Action is invisible and generates no cash. That’s why it had to go. The only part with any teeth are the hidden Certificates, LGCs and STCs and they are the mechanism of punishment and enslavement by making coal and gas and diesel and petrol power unaffordable while pushing up power prices to reward the beneficiaries. Who cares if factories close? Dirty places in outer suburbs. None in Canberra anyway, so what do they care. Canberra runs on wind. Of course.

Only then would anyone understand why AGL refused $250Million for Liddell, a power station it bought for $0.
Liddell is worth much more to them off the market, shut and pushing up prices. That is criminal. Where’s the ACCC? Why doesn’t any politician understand why power prices are rocketing? Nothing is said. Even Tony Abbott says nothing.

After all, Victoria Labor Premier said Victoria’s electricity would rise 10% when Hazelwood closed. Why would anyone even tolerate 10%. Of course the real figure was much higher and he knew it, which is why he tripled the price of (our free) coal and forced the closure.

No one can explain how the now Federal National grid pushes up prices and it is all too complex for anyone to understand.

Rubbish. No politician is talking about the real issue. Ripoff certificates robbing us blind. They know it.
Targets are just a distraction and mean nothing legally. Paris too. Cui Bono. Certificates. Not even taxation, robbery.

Yes but it could all be brought to a grinding halt by letting the penalties for not surrendering certificates which is all the teeth the act has. Set the penalty at 1c per MWh until the act can be repealed.

Curious that certificates are never mentioned in any of the electioneering material. My ninety-six year old mother is across most of politics but she had never heard of the RET. I guess it’s too iniquitous for the MSM to begin lifting the curtain. I told her that we’ve probably fifteen years of this rubbish ahead and her face was a picture; I doubt either of us will see its end.