Week Eight Monday 10-pack

It’s the midpoint of the season, sort of. Eight weeks are in the books, but only eight teams have played eight games. For the other 24, the season won’t hit the turn until next week.

And while we’re starting to get a feel for the good teams and the bad teams and the in-between teams, the any-given-Sunday vibe remains alive and well — and the fortunes of teams can change quickly, for good or bad.

Until we crown a champion, we can dabble only in a series of snapshots as to where teams are right now. Here are 10 of them, plenty of which may fade to black by the time January rolls around.

1. Super Bowl rematch coming?

In August, as teams scrambled to slap together game-ready rosters without the benefit of an offseason program or traditional two-a-day workouts, it was believed that the teams who played deep into the 2010 season would have a real benefit.

And the two teams that played the deepest presumably had the biggest benefit.

From the start, the Packers showed that they’d be able to pick up right where they left off. For the Steelers, they needed a month to find their groove, but they’ve found it in a huge way, with four straight wins punctuated by a table-turning, trend-reversing victory over Tom Brady and the Patriots, highlighted by defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s long-con rope-a-dope in which he convinced the Pats based on years of stubbornness that the defense wouldn’t change despite chronic struggles against offenses that spread things out and quarterbacks that could make decisions faster than the Steelers could get to the quarterbacks.

Now, nearly two months into the season, the Steelers and Packers appear to be on a collision course for a rematch, 18 years after the last time the two Super Bowl teams got back together for a second straight year.

Yes, everything is subject to change. But when the dust settles on the 2011 season, there’s a chance that, at the very top, there will be no change at all.

2. Eagles may have something to say about that.

After Sunday night’s thrashing of the Cowboys, there’s a new team that could disrupt Green Bay’s run to the Super Bowl. And it’s the team that many were ready to hand the Lombardi without even playing the season.

The Eagles finally put it together on both sides of the ball in that 34-7 win over the Cowboys, and if the Eagles can keep it up they could beat the Packers in Green Bay in January.

Tony Dungy of Football Night in America pointed out after the game that the Eagles match up well with the Packers. Indeed, the Eagles nearly knocked off the Packers in the wild-card round last year.

This year, the Eagles would be the underdog. It’s a role they seem to relish much more than being dubbed a Dream Team.

3. Ravens may have something to say about it, too.

Yes, they lost to the Jaguars a week ago. Yes, they fell behind the Cardinals by three touchdowns on Sunday. But the Ravens still have the pieces to put together a deep run into the playoffs, and they play up (and, unfortunately for them, down) to the level of the competition.

The Ravens match up well with the best teams in the conference, as long as they can get past the Steelers. And they can go a long way toward getting past the Steelers if they can beat them next Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

Either way, the Steelers and Ravens seem destined to play again in January, for the third time in four years. And the Ravens could be the only AFC team that could defeat the Steelers come the postseason, whether the game is played in Maryland or Pennsylvania.

4. Tony Dungy said it the right way.

On Sunday, Bill Cowher said he doesn’t “plan” to coach next year, and that he “plans” to be in the same seat at CBS next year. It’s a different twist on Jon Gruden’s approach to keeping his name out of circulation during a season. Gruden signed an “exclusive” contract with ESPN, and ESPN won’t say whether “exclusive” means he can’t leave the network for a coaching job.

Neither man has said unequivocally that he won’t be coaching in 2012. Tony Dungy showed them how to do it during Football Night in America, stating without doubt or ambiguity or wiggle words that he won’t be coaching next year.

So until Cowher and Gruden follow suit, they’ll be regarded as potential candidates for coaching jobs once January comes around.

5. Chris Johnson is doing it the wrong way.

It’s hard to pinpoint the reasons for Titans running back Chris Johnson’s struggles. Apart from the holdout and the new offense and the new offensive coordinator and the new quarterback, one thing is clear: Johnson lacks the explosiveness that we used to see on a weekly basis.

It was obvious today when Johnson caught a pass and had some space with which to operate, after weeks of taking a handoff and being swallowed up by defenders before he could make it to daylight. The old Chris Johnson would have rocketed to the endzone untouched. The new Chris Johnson was swallowed up by defenders.

Something’s wrong with Johnson, and the question isn’t whether he’ll get it back this year. The question is whether he’ll get it back ever.

6. Time for a new position for Tebow.

I’ll admit it. I was caught up in the Tebow story from last week. Making the dramatic closing moments of the home-away-from-home game at Miami even more compelling was the fact that Tebow had been so terribly awful in the three-plus quarters before the offense woke up.

But Tebow managed to take down one of the worst teams in the league. Sunday’s game at home against the Lions showed that Tebow simply isn’t ready to be an NFL quarterback.

It’s easy to say that he’s a work in progress. But not every unfinished painting becomes a masterpiece. Tebow, once fully developed, could be a .500 quarterback at best.

And that means it’s time for the Broncos to consider their alternatives. The ultimate team player probably would move to a new position, especially if no other team wants to let him play quarterback. But maybe it simply won’t work to take a guy who had been a quarterback and move him to a new spot on the same team. Maybe the Broncos simply need to dump him after the season.

Either way, this experiment is well on its way to failing. After a few more weeks — and a few more damning columns in the hometown paper — the Tebowmaniacs in Denver likely will agree.

7. Temporary end of the bye-week blues.

Through Week Seven, teams emerging from byes were 3-9. In Week Eight, the teams with byes last Sunday won five and lost only one.

It was believed that the five days off mandated by the labor agreement had been a factor in the 25-percent winning percentage. But now, with the total success rate up to 40 percent, it’s hard to tell whether the time off actually hurts.

It definitely didn’t hurt the Eagles, especially since Andy Reid is now 13-0 after the regular-season bye.

Moving forward, count on the teams that lost to look at the things done by the teams that won in the hopes of finding a way to win after the bye week in 2012.

8. Breaking a “Suck for Luck” deadlock.

So with the Colts at 0-8 and the Dolphins at 0-7 and their paths not crossing in 2011, plenty of readers have asked for more information about the procedure that would apply if the two teams finish 0-16.

Several times in recent years, draft order has been determined by a coin flip. So could the ability to draft Andrew Luck be determined by a rudimentary game of chance?

In this case, that most likely won’t happen, since the Colts and Dolphins are in the same conference.

First, the strength of schedule would be compared. That means the total wins and losses of the Colts’ opponents would be compared to the total wins and losses of the Dolphins’ opponents. If the numbers are the same, the process would move on to the next step.

Second, the division or conference tie-breakers apply, if applicable. In other words, the various steps that would be used to determine a wild-card berth would be employed to determine the “better” (and thus the “worse”) team. This would ultimately bring into play the following specific and detailed factors that surely would produce a winner (i.e. loser): best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed; best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed; best net points in conference games; best net points in all games; best net touchdowns in all games.

If each of those steps results in a tie, the final step would be a coin flip. But, surely, the two teams won’t tie on each of those specific factors.

Coin flips for draft picks happen when the two tied teams are in different conferences. In those cases, the factors are strength of schedule and coin flip.

So in a Colts-vs.-Dolphins showdown for Luck, someone will “win” the pick based on losing as to one of the various factors listed above.

9. ‘Skins could make a run for Luck.

Though they have three wins, the Redskins’ performance over the past several weeks suggests they won’t have many more. And that could cause the Redskins to plunge toward the Andrew Luck splash zone.

Even if the Redskins lose the rest of their games, they most likely won’t “earn” the top pick. Still, the closer they are to the top of the order, the less it will take to finish the climb via trade.

And if Luck decides he doesn’t want to play for the team that finishes in the first spot, and if he determines that he’d like to play for the Redskins, who knows? Mike Shanahan could get the best quarterback since the one with whom Shanahan won a pair of Super Bowls in Denver.

10. League needs to expand reviewable plays.

As the NFL gradually expands its use of instant replay, the league needs to be willing to consider whether further changes are needed. The most recent tweak to the system seems to cry out for a more radical overhaul.

Late in the Patriots-Steelers game, with New England trailing by six, quarterback Tom Brady was hit, forcing a fumble. During the scramble for the ball, safety Troy Polamalu dove for it, deftly slapping the thing hard across the goal line. The ball ultimately rolled out of the back of the end zone for a safety. In real time and at full speed, it was hard to see that Polamalu whacked the ball toward the two-pointer. The replays revealed that Polamalu had indeed pushed the ball into the end zone.

But when referee Mike Carey reviewed the play, since it involved a score, Carey had no power to overturn the non-call on the field as it related to Polamalu’s punching of the ball, because that specific action is not on the pre-set list of reviewable plays.

Though the play would have been subject to a booth-initiated review even if it had happened before the 2011 season, given that it happened in the final two minutes of the game, the league’s expanded commitment to getting it right compels the league to ditch the list of specifically reviewable actions and to make everything reviewable, with specific exceptions carved out.

If the overriding goal is indeed to get it right, the league should exempt from review only those judgment calls made based on a three-dimensional observation of the action that can’t and shouldn’t be second-guessed by a two-dimensional representation of it. Other than pass interference and the question of whether a receiver was in the vicinity of a pass being assessed for intentional grounding, there are few (and possibly no) pure judgment calls. Thus, once the referee goes under the hood to review a play, he should be able to change the outcome based on anything he sees that should have been seen in real time.

The concern about prolonging the game shouldn’t matter. If, on scoring plays and all plays occurring with fewer than two minutes in each half, the referee watches the entire play for anything that could be overturned, the delay already has been injected into the process. The only remaining question is whether the referee will be permitted to fix any error that he sees.

Mike, please do me a favor and tell Costas to cease the freakin Baseball references on SNF. I for one (and I’m sure 98% of your viewing audience) could care less what a miriacle it was that whoever won the World series did so.

The thought of the eagles having something to say about the Packers winning is laughable! There is no one in the NFC that can compete with the Packers.

jimmysimpson55 says:Oct 31, 2011 2:29 AM

I feel sorry for Tebow. It is not his fault that some idiot drafted him in 1st round. He obviously should not have been drafted, but there has to be a place or position for him somewhere. He did not ask for any of this.

Whoever doesn’t suck enough for Luck will be sucking for Barkley or Jones. Not the end of the world if you’d lose the tiebreaker.

zillabeast says:Oct 31, 2011 2:49 AM

Just before the 2011 season began, the Indianapolis Colts held a top-secret level meeting with only the most trusted members of the staff and roster in attendance. It was there that the truth about Peyton Manning’s career-ending situation was revealed. However, the Colts had a plan.

A simple photograph of Andrew Luck was shown on a projector at this classified meeting, and it was clearly understood without words what had to be done. There had to be no evidence whatsoever that he team was tanking this season intentionally in order to secure the #1 pick in 2012. It was Jim Irsay himself who came up with the idea of signing Manning to that ridiculous contract, for both appearances and also as a farewell thank you for over a decade of amazing play. Kerry Collins’ $4 million deal, also for appearance sake.

The entire plan was carefully crafted and every member of that meeting made a pact to follow the plan through and through for the future of the franchise. A very elaborate, expensive plan. So far though, it seems to be working.

Super Bowl re-matches tend to happen when things go right the same way – that means no picks or no upsets, and it doesnt work that way. Like the Rams picked off the Saints, the Eagles could bounce the Packers. We saw would happened with the Steelers today

Agree on the Ravens.

Johnson lost it the minute it was a conventional offense, and Vince Young left

What’s Andy Reid’s record after the bye week?

Irony. The Colts “Lucking” into another franchise QB to learn behind one of the all-time greats.

Do you get the feeling that even if the Redskins got Luck, Shanahan would find a way to completely take away what he does best.

Cowher and Dungy would likely go where “Luck” would lead them. Gruden seems like a fit in Indy.

Trying to remember the last post-NFL position change. Ed Jensen, Dolphins, Kordell Stewart? I still refuse to believe Tebow goes the way of Heath Shuler, and out of the league.

Well dang I guess if you can’t get it together after 2 starts your career is over as a QB. It’s utterly ridiculous to base someone’s entire career outlook off of one game. Maybe that ass kicking from Detroit’s d-line and now 14 sacks in 2 week will teach Tebow better than any NFL coach ever could but to say his career as a QB is over is way early. Orton has 7 interceptions on the year so for that team, I’ll withhold judgement on Tebow.

I think a large number of us would appreciate it if PFT could create and update weekly the “Suck for Luck” standings. Just apply the tiebreakers as stated in point 8 and the “if the season ended today,” the draft order would be…

The Eagles still need to get past the Giants, who aren’t pretty, but know how to slow down/beat up Vick and match up well with them. plus they need to make up two games. Don’t think they are just going to walk over Chicago next week.

A Miami Dolphins Rant: First of all it is not all SParanos fault this team is 0-7. Nobody is looking at the real truth here Twice in Miami we have been hurt by the same person with two different franchises. Wayne Huizenga has killed Miami sports fans with the sales of the teams. First he sells the Marlins to Henry who destroyed the team right when fans were going to got to the Ballpark. Now, Steph……en Ross buys a proud franchise and turns it into a circus. Celebrates the Gaytors on our home turf to sell tickets. Sparano is the one that will get all of the blame, but four men have killed this franchise far more than Sparano. Huizenga, Ross, Ireland and Parcells. The Dolphins will be better when they get a coach to keep the microphone out of Ross’ hands and get a new QB. The only problem is Ross wants control even though he has no idea what he is doing, so he will probably hire a weak coach. Dolphins will be bad until this joker sells the team!

steelmeats says:Oct 31, 2011 6:52 AM

If you feel the refs should be able to enforce a penalty based off what he sees during a replay than he should have also seen the blatant hold/mugging that Keisel had to overcome on his second effort to get to Brady before he caused the fumble. Check the tape if you think I’m being biased. Not one time have I heard anyone mention that part of the play.

Let me start by saying I am not a rabid Tebow supporter. I do not believe he has the intangibles to be a top notch QB in the league. But people are coming down on him pretty hard. Yes, it was a terrible performance. No denying that! But many top notch qb’s have bad games. I am not ready to condemn the guy after a couple of starts in a new offense, facing one of the NFL’s toughest defenses, and after trading away the team’s best receiver. I am not making excuses for the guy. Some of his passes were awful. That is more of a reflection on his mechanics though. Tebow may never be more than a .500 quarterback in this league. Or he may just have a different skill set that needs time to adjust to his second offense in less than two years. I know his best chance for success in the NFL is a position which can utilize his entire skill set. And tight end, H-back, or whatever other position people want him to try would not accomplish that. The article clearly states Tebow ‘isn’t ready to be an NFL qb’. And that not all unfinished paintings become masterpieces. But are really going to pass that judgement on a 2-3 record in games started (with a total of 16 touchdowns and six turnovers in games he has played in) while continuing to learn a new offense on a bad team? Seems a little hasty in my opinion.

alewatcher says:Oct 31, 2011 7:26 AM

Tim Tebow has to be one of the worst draft picks in NFL history, especially when you factor in the number of places Denver traded up to grab a guy no one really was lusting after anyway. McDaniels must have been channeling his inner Al Davis on that one.

Denver fans: Be careful what you ask for! You wanted Tebow to start, you got it.

The honeymoon is officially over, methinks.

tv426 says:Oct 31, 2011 7:45 AM

I can’t believe that anyone would think Tebow is a good QB, even after the Miami game. He just doesn’t have it, and he never has had it.

And every time someone talks about how great he is, all I can recall is the time when one of his own coaches at U Fl referred to him as a “meat”. Nuff said!

I bet that is what you thought of the Jax game, too. How ’bout if we let them play the game.

gosuhgo says:Oct 31, 2011 8:37 AM

Mike stop it right now. The ravens are not that good. a loss to jacksonville and a nailbiter with the cardinals? come on! what about that says super bowl?

southpaw2k says:Oct 31, 2011 8:45 AM

clownsfan says:
Oct 31, 2011 8:01 AM

Let’s all over-react to a Steelers win against a lousy DEF. BAL is gonna hand’em their lunch.

ps……don’t look now, the Bengals are 5-2

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As much as I would love to see the Ravens stuff the Steelers like a Thanksgiving turkey yet again, I am absolutely terrified about Sunday night’s game.

TheDPR says:Oct 31, 2011 8:51 AM

Any thoughts on why strength of schedule would be first tiebreaker for the draft when it isn’t even close to the first when it comes to playoffs?

Hey clownsfan, the Steelers offense only put up 23 points against that lousy defense, too. I’m not sold on Pittsburgh, either, but the AFC is wide open without any dominant team right now.

As for Tebow, they should have converted him to a RB from day one. He could have become Denver’s answer to Peyton Hillis. As a QB he is nobody’s answer to anything.

snarkzilla says:Oct 31, 2011 9:01 AM

I don’t get the “convert Tebow” movement. The guy’s is too slow and way too big to be a RB. They have to hit gaps fast and move laterally, be patient, slip through space, etc. He’s too slow to be a good WR and nobody has any idea if he can catch.

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You beat the below average Cowgirls and now, all of the sudden, you are the “dream team” again and think you can hang with the best team in the league, who owns the best QB in the league?. Keep “dreaming” there Eagle fans. You’ll be lucky to even get a chance to play at Lambeau in January.

If you want the ability to review plays in order to call penalties after the fact, then you can not exclude any penalties and have it be a legitimate exercise.

You also need to look at the entire play, not just the particular action under question.

In the Polomalu case, if you want the ability to go back and see if he did punch the ball and give the ability to call the penalty after review, the whole play should be looked at for possible penalties.

I mean, adding in a hypothetical to the mix, who cares if Polomalu punched the ball if it shows the Steelers were offsides, or, lined up in the neutral zone, and hence, negating the entire down in the first place?

@clownsfan:
i think the “over-reaction” is due to the “old, slow, and done” defense’s performance against the patriots offense, not our offensive performance against the pats d, but dont let facts get in the way of your hate.

whynotusecommonsense says:Oct 31, 2011 9:35 AM

The ability to go back and call a penalty after a replay review is a ridiculous idea. Thankfully you have no influence in what the NFL should do in these cases.

What about when a penalty is called and replay shows that it was a bad call? Do you then go back and give the team the touchdown? It should work both ways.

Taking the human element out of the game is a horrible idea. The refs make mistakes, but overall they do a pretty good job. Leave it alone and don’t get on one of your crusades.

theroc5156 says:Oct 31, 2011 10:02 AM

I think the Steelers destroy the Ravens on Sunday. So what that means, the Ravens will win quite easily.

dukemarc says:Oct 31, 2011 10:16 AM

Tony Romo isn’t the QB for the Packers, so no, the Eagles don’t have what it takes to beat the Packers.

I am neither a Tebow supporter or slammer. I thought his being picked in round one was a huge reach. I saw him as no better than a third or fourth round pick. But where he was selected was not his choice.
But let’s understand something. It’s not his fault the Broncos are as bad as they are. Remember, three picks ahead of Tebow the Broncos took Demaryius Thomas, who by all accounts is an even bigger bust. They now have several reclamation projects on their roster (Derrick Harvey, Brodrick Bunkley, Willis MacGahee) who were former first round picks for other teams that didn’t do all that well or live up to their first round draft status.
The Broncos are a team who have a lack of talent at some positions, and aging talent at others.
None of this is Tebow’s fault.
However, Tebow isn’t improving his game, even week over week. His footwork is terrible and he lacks accuracy. He takes too much time to decide when to throw the ball. At least half the sacks he takes aren’t because the O-line isn’t doing their job, it’s because he isn’t making his decision fast enough. That long wind up he has got him stripped twice yesterday, one resulting in a defensive TD for Detroit.
Tim Tebow is a project doomed to failure in Denver. He needs a VERY good team around him for him to somehow succeed. He doesn’t make the team around him better, which is the hallmark of a great NFL quarterback.

mjs2012 says:Oct 31, 2011 10:30 AM

So the Eagles win 2 in a row and they’re all of a sudden a threat to the Packers?

Sorry, but put those 2 teams side by side right and the Packers win by 2 TD’s, minimum.

Save that kind of talk for playoff time and see if things have changed.

The thought of the eagles having something to say about the Packers winning is laughable! There is no one in the NFC that can compete with the Packers.

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other than…..the Vikings? who “competed” with the packers in their last game? no, it’s not just the vikings who are capable of competing with the packers….no team is infallible, especially one with the 31st ranked pass defense.

Deb says:Oct 31, 2011 11:28 AM

Excellent 10-pack, Mike.

3. The Bengals may have something to say to both my Steelers and the Ravens. Pittsburgh and Baltimore need to watch their backs.

4. Dungy said it right for a man truly finished with coaching. Cowher said it right for one who who won’t discuss a job that isn’t vacant.

6. Tebow needs a new team where the coaches are invested enough to help him find his niche–perhaps at RB or TE.

10. The entire officiating system needs to be overhauled, beginning with implementing a review system more like the NCAA’s.

dolphincritic says:Oct 31, 2011 12:01 PM

Mike! Lay off the speculation about Superbowl! Let’s all enjoy the drama and suspense parity brings to the season. In addition, forget the speculation about “Suck For Luck.” professional players have their own careers to worry about. They know that poor performance will haunt them! In the case of the Dolphins, well they suck in so many ways that Jesus could’ heal them! Luck may decide that he should stay in school another year – who knows.

other than…..the Vikings? who “competed” with the packers in their last game? no, it’s not just the vikings who are capable of competing with the packers….no team is infallible, especially one with the 31st ranked pass defense.
===============

Really? Really?

Seriously now. First of all, that was a division game, on the road. With an unscouted QB and the Packers with a wounded defense

But that’s irrelevant. Point is, they’re talking about competing to drive them out of the playoffs, or beat them in the post-season. Of course any team is fallible, look at NO losing to STL, Dolphins almost beating the Giants, the Ravens-Cards game.

You’re arguing a point that no one made.

And in that regard, Philadelphia does not scare me one ounce. Or the Packers. They’re not even a .500 team yet. What a joke.

The Eagles? Better than their record, yes. Suddenly “competition” for the Packers (in the important post-season sense?) yeah, no. Not yet. See me after a dominant 5 game winning streak, then we’ll talk.

spartaninnh says:Oct 31, 2011 4:23 PM

Am I the only one who looks at Tebow in that Bronco jersey and thinks, “Ed McCaffrey”?

stavreafavre says:Oct 31, 2011 4:25 PM

Eagles? We’re gonna talk about the Eagles?! It’s the Eagles, right? Excuse me, but I’m more worried about the 49ers, the Lions, the Giants, the Saints, and the Bears than I am the Eagles. Mostly I’m worried about the Chargers. That’s who the Packers play this week.

I know CJ’s problem… that new contract has now made his wallet so effin heavy that its hard run anymore.

Happens to the best of ‘em (see reference of Shaun Alexander… 2005 MVP running back for the Seahawks. Got the big payday and then right down the drain… and no arguements about injuries and losing Hutch on the O-Line, Shaun would hit the turf at the first sign of impending contact).

other than…..the Vikings? who “competed” with the packers in their last game? no, it’s not just the vikings who are capable of competing with the packers….no team is infallible, especially one with the 31st ranked pass defense.
===============

Really? Really?

Seriously now. First of all, that was a division game, on the road. With an unscouted QB and the Packers with a wounded defense

But that’s irrelevant. Point is, they’re talking about competing to drive them out of the playoffs, or beat them in the post-season. Of course any team is fallible, look at NO losing to STL, Dolphins almost beating the Giants, the Ravens-Cards game.

You’re arguing a point that no one made.

And in that regard, Philadelphia does not scare me one ounce. Or the Packers. They’re not even a .500 team yet. What a joke.

The Eagles? Better than their record, yes. Suddenly “competition” for the Packers (in the important post-season sense?) yeah, no. Not yet. See me after a dominant 5 game winning streak, then we’ll talk.

================
really? really? really?

packers with a wounded defense? half the vikings secondary was out, hurt or in jail. (not a proud moment at all for chris cook)

I don’t buy the Eagles yet, but they do have a ton of talent, and might be lulled by drinking their own kool-aid early.

Still to assert your D being hurt kept a game with my relatively sorry squad close is absurd.