And Patrick Roy is getting embarrassed by the Detroit Red Wings 9-0. And he’s begging Mario Tremblay to pull him from the net.

And Mario doesn’t.

And so Patrick Roy announces that he’s done with Montreal.

And Rejean Houle trades him.

And the dark times begin …

And now we wonder if we are going to retire his number?

And he’s probably the third or fourth best goaltender that ever played for Montreal (Bill Durham may be the third). And he’s the reason we won in 1993. And he’s most of the reason we won in 1986.

But you know what, he quit on Montreal.

I don’t care about his antics. I don’t care about the fights. I don’t really care about whether he was a good human being. He was a great hockey player. And his greatness demands that we retire his number.

But I can not ever get over his quitting on Montreal.

Yeah other players held out, and were traded but they did it for the money or because things went bad between them and the team. And when they quit they always said the right things even when they were relieved to be out of town.

Only Roy demanded to be traded because he was *too* good for Montreal.

Only Roy decided that the Montreal Canadiens were not worthy of his services.

So maybe that makes him a great player, and maybe that makes him a legendary player, because he thought he was better than the Montreal Canadiens.

But you know what?

He will always be the guy that quit on Montreal. He will always be the guy that walked out on us.

And as far as I am concerned, that’s why he will never get his name on the rafters. Because he betrayed the team. And when we retire a jersey we’re making a statement about the kinds of players we want on our team, and we don’t want quitters.

So when they’ve retired Koivu’s number, and when they retire Chelios’ number and when they retire Lapointe’s number, and when they retire the number of every minor leaguer that ever wanted to play for the Montreal Canadiens and couldn’t, and when they retire the number of every kid who ever played pee-wee hockey dreaming of playing in the Montreal Forum or Bell Center, and when they honor every fan that ever bought a ticket, when they honor every mother and father who let their kids play hockey and told them about the Great Montreal Canadiens, and when they honor every attendant, journalist, fan who made being a Montreal fan so great, maybe, just maybe, we’ll find an inconspicuous spot in the rafters for the guy that decided that he was too good for us.

But until then, he is not welcome.

And a lot of folks were like... whatever dude... Get over it. Peanut was to blame...

And when he shows up and he does the whole "time to return home", I'm like okay... We can forgive...

But then this?

Here's a different version of the facts. Patrick decides he wants a trade. And his head is not in the game.

Maybe Tremblay notices how Patrick isn't even trying.

Mario thinks, fuck the goalie is trying to make me look bad and the team look bad. This is a mess.

So Mario keeps him in, it's one thing to have a bad game, it's another for your star goalie to phone it in.

Patrick then uses the 9 goals as an excuse to demand a trade.

Patrick Roy may be the greatest goalie to play the game. And he absolutely deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. And he deserves to be cheered and celebrated and recognized. But no, his jersey does not belong up there with Guy Lafleur's or Jean Beliveau's. Heck, Saku Koivu's deserves to be there more than Patrick's.

October 20, 2013

Damn, not sure what alternate universe I showed up in... but this year's Sharks are possibly the best team I have ever had the pleasure of watching over a sustained number of games.

The team that won the presidents cup you felt was exploiting a tactical advantage that would eventually be neutralized, as it was. McLellan relied on a huge number of shots from the point to generate offensive opportunities, when the NHL figured out how to neutralize that strategy McLellan was at a loss to respond.

The last three years have been painful to watch as Todd has refused to join the rest of the league and realize that situation not player matchups win games. Essentially the NHL has migrated to a world where specialization not general abilities matter. This is a huge pivot. Three years ago top offensive players were expected to play tough defensive minutes. No longer. Offensive players are expected to score goals and they are shielded from tough offensive minutes.

Teams that execute to that strategy tend to win more... And that makes home ice a ridiculously big advantage going forward.

And oh-my-goodness have the Sharks figured out how to execute to this strategy. Joe Thorton liberated from playing defense has become an offensive force once again. Brett Burns no longer forced to understand defence has become a great player. And hertl can play on the top line without fear that he'll be exposed for the weak defender all rookies are...

The Sharks are not just winning, they are dominating play. Their fenwick close is at an absurd +60%.

What makes the sharks particularly lethal is that in addition to their great 5on5 play they actually have a very good powerplay. And although powerplays are highly variable, yadda, yadda, yadda the Sharks are quite good and have been quite good for a long time. In fact their entire season last year was built around mediocre 5on5 play and a great power play. If they can keep both pieces intact this could be a very fun year.

July 12, 2013

Many in the NHL are shocked to discover that Kovalchuk is moving back to Russia. And that he's walking away from 77 million dollars.

I'm not.

Kovalchuk has endured a decade of the American press questioning his play, his commitment and his ability. He's had to endure a decade of the American and Canadian press question his country men's commitment to the sport. He's had to suffer through years of Don Cherry making thinly disguised racist comments about any non-European boys.

Like many immigrants, there is a temptation to go back home when you can. And given the situation in New Jersey, where things were looking like the team was moving away from winning a championship rather than closer to a championship, I'm not surprised.The whole point of going to New Jersey was to win a Cup. And it didn't pan out. He played very well, he made it to the finals, but the reality was that he wasn't going to win one in the next few years. So he had years of more pain like he did with the Atlanta Thrashers.

And most importantly of he all, he obviously enjoys playing and being in Russia.

His children can be closer to their grandparents, he can speak a language he is comfortable with, he can watch television and not translate it in his head and the press may question him, but they don't look at him as if he was some kind of thief. There is a comfort to being home.

And then there is the money part. Although he is walking away from 77 million dollars, he isn't really. first of all there is no gurantee that he'll get the money because of the way escrow works. Then there is no guarantee he'll get the money because of a future lockout in 6 years. And then there are the taxes which approach 50%.

In Russia, on the other hand, he can get a front-loaded contract that gives him most of the money right now and at a much lower tax rate (13%). The net effect might be that from a purely financial situation he's got a better deal than staying in New Jersey.

As a somewhat left leaning individual who believes there is too much wealth concentration in the hands of the rich and powerful, watching the rich and powerful lose their toys makes me smile. The NHL owners wanted to cut player salaries to increase their share of the pie, and the players will start voting with their feet.

June 01, 2013

In my last post, I remarked that elite goaltending is valuable (not necessary) but valuable. It's almost a tautology the more elite performances you get out of a team, the more likely you are to win.

The debate really is the following: Do you need an elite goaltender to get an elite goaltending performance?

And if you are a Montreal fan, is Carey Price an elite goaltender.

So I don't care if Carey Price is an elite goaltender. Because I want an elite team. What I want to know is whether we need him to be elite?

And the data, right now, is inconclusive.

Edit:

One thing I did realize is that the Eastern Conference is different from the Western. In the West, everyone tries to be like Detroit. Detroit dominated with average goaltenders. In the East, folks tend to look at goaltenders more because they tend to have better goaltenders.

Which explains my bias against elite goaltenders, the West doesn't have them but tends to win cups, regardles...

Correction: I did my analysis on save percentage on the playoffs based on save percentage instead of 5x5 save percentage. My bad. The results do change. The basic conclusion that you need a goaltender to perform at an elite level at 5x5 is true. What we need to explore is whether you need an elite goaltender, someone who can do this on a regular basis.

Given the goalies who won the cup, I am not sure, but I'll leave that for later.

A post I recently read about Carey Price made a bunch of assertions, used data in a many different ways, and finally concluded that Montreal to win the cup needs a top-tier goaltender.

As a Montreal fan who is in his 40's and remembers how Montreal fans were convinced we couldn't win with Patrick Roy in nets until we found a big center to replace Beliveau, I find our obsession with goaltending bizarre.

I found the data driven approach interesting, even if I didn't agree with the conclusions or how the data was manipulated.

But the question the author wrote, that underpins so much of the hysteria that is Carey Price, remained: do you need elite goaltending?

The problem we have is that hockey has two distinct periods: pre and post lockout. In pre-lockout hockey you can afford to have elite players at every position. In post-lockout hockey you do not.

So although it is tempting to look at the entire period of hockey, we really can only consider the last 8 years which is a ridiculously small sample. But it is what it is.

Given there are 16 goalies in the playoffs, an elite goalie is in the top 5 of the playoff goalies. Here there is somewhat stronger evidence that top goaltending matters. 4 cup winners were elite goalies, and 4 cup winners did not.

What migth tilt the balance in favor of elite goaltending is that in 2006, in spite of his save percentage, Cam Ward got a Conn Smythe trophy.

Then I wondered, is there any relationship between a bad team needing better goaltending than a good team? And so I looked at Fenwick close - which is a fantastic predictor of playoff success. If you don't believe me look at this data.

The 2009 Penguins are the only team to buck the odds as a non +.500 fenwick team, but their .499 was .549 under Dan Bylsma and has been no lower than .531 since.

So in the last 5 years, having an elite goaltender mattered 20% of the time, but having an elite team mattered 80% of the time.

Looking at this data, some more, it explains why the LA Kings won the cup so handily. They had an elite team and an elite goalie.

Where does this lead us?

The limited data we have so far does not make it clear that we need elite goaltending. What it makes clear is that we need an elite team.

So if we look over the period 2008-2012, Montreal has been in the bottom 6 in terms of Fenwick close 4 times (2012, ) and in the middle (12-20) once 2011. So basically in the entire Carey Price era, Montreal has been a lousy team that is not expected to win the cup unless it has a goalie performance for the ages (Tim Thomas in 2011). Has Carey Price delivered such a performance? No. Has any other elite goalie delivered such a performance from 2004-2012? No. Which means that the probability of winning with a lousy team and an elite goalie is about very low.

We should be more concerned about the fact that the team is not yet an elite team. We're more likely to win a cup with an elite team. And the lack of an elite team is not about goaltending but about forwards, and defenseman and coaching systems.

May 28, 2013

Suffice it to say, the Kings were the better team and deservedly won. As for the Sharks, they screwed the pooch with a bad line change, but I am not convinced they would have won anyway. Without Torres and without Havlat... the Sharks were too dependent on two lines to score and the kings were just too good.

May 27, 2013

My son woke up this morning, demanded his hockey jersey and then proceeded to swing wildly at the puck. I got inspired to roll him the puck and told him to hit it as a one-timer. He got almost as excited as hitting the puck as watching the video ...

May 16, 2013

The Sharks shock and surprise that Brendan Shanahan is reviewing a Raffi Torres hit is about as surprising as the Sharks surprise that Marty Havlat gets injured.

Raffi Torres hit a player, Jarrett Stoll, and that hit involved head contact.

Now, maybe, if you are not Raffi Torres, there is a benefit of the doubt.

But you're Raffi Torres, and dude you're going down. And you're going down by a lot. And your team is going to suffer.

As for whether it's a hockey play or not, I am of the opinion, that all hits to the head are not hockey plays. And that the hitter has an obligation to not make hits that can hit another player in the head. The old-school mantra that accidents happen is no longer good enough.

The thing that drives me nuts, is that back in the day we had hits to the knee. And then Cam Neely's career ended because of those hits. And then we stopped having those kinds of hits. And at the time we talked about hockey plays and accidents, but somehow we managed to eliminate those kinds of plays.

Hockey Plays evolve over time. And it's time for them to evolve one more time.

May 10, 2013

In 2010, I had the joy of watching Jaroslav Halak put together an astonishing series of games that eliminated a great Washington team that then went into a spiral of despair and confusion that it only recently has emerged from.

Hockey, unlike basketball, has a high luck component. In the sense that over a short series of events, random events can cancel out a better team's dominance. Montreal dominated the Senators. A lot of bloggers, and journalists and fans will arrive at the wrong conclusion that somehow Montreal failed to generate chances, failed to score because it lacked the right players, that the team is too small, european, etc, instead of acknowledging that a great team can be eliminated by a bad team because of luck.

Montreal has done it many times (see Boston so many times to count that I am losing track of the number of times it happened).

The danger, and it's real, is that Montreal make the same set of mistakes Washington made in 2010. Sometimes the better team loses because of luck. Luck doesn't change the fact that they were the better team. Washington proceeded to go into a death spiral as they changed the very nature of their club and have yet to recover.

The only mistake Marc Bergevin can make is if he looks at the outcome of this series and thinks that he was beaten by a better team.

Montreal outchanced the Senators. They outshot and out-possessed them inspite of

missing Eller. Eller was a 2-way center who exploited the gaps created by the DD and Max-Pac combo. NHL teams are forced to protect against Max-Pac leaving Eller to feast on whatever is left over. Looking at game 1, you saw what was going to happen, if he never got injured. 27 shots in one period is not an accident.

Max-Pac being injured. DD is Max-Pac's center. He helps create offense for Max-Pac. But without Max-Pac at full efficiency, DD is a small overmatched center who can only do so much. as for not scoring in 5 games, let's be clear over a 5 game sample, a 50 point center may score 0 points. Without Eller creating defensive mismatches DD was simply overmatched.

Emelin forcing us to play Tinordi. Tinordi is a rookie, and he played well, but ...

Carey Price had a bad series. This happens. Only in Montreal do we compare every goaltender to Roy, Dryden and Plante. Price is no Roy, Dryden or Plante. But he is not chopped liver. He gets paid about what you would expect to pay a goalie who keeps us in most games. Did he suck this series? Yup. But to think that there are much better goalies out there is silly.

Gionta. And Gionta who disturbed our defensive matchups and is a great playoff performer

An injured Brandon Proust.

In spite of being a broken team we were still better than Ottawa.

So how did we get eliminated?

One word, Anderson.

Anderson was unreal. Folks who think McLean "out-coached" Therien miss the insane Save Pct of Anderson. Having watched him play for the Avalanche, and watch him almost single-handedly eliminate the San Jose Sharks, his performance is not surprising. He can and has put together insane streaks of goaltending. There is a lot of stupidity out there saying that the reality was that Anderson didn't have to play that great because he didn't face many hard chances. Poppy-cock. McLean's D was bailed out again and again and again by Anderson. It happens. Montreal outchanced the Senators whenever they tried to score. And the reality is Anderson was amazing. I don't think folks realize how surreal a .940 save percentage is. And unlike that freak, Thomas who was really a symbiotic creature who benefited from Chara's play, Anderson plays great without the awe inspiring talent that is Zdeno Chara.

The Sens are not scrappy pesky, they are a team that rode an unreal save percentage by their goalie to the playoffs. McLean will get the Adams award, ink will be spilled about the clutch nature of their Canadian players, Karlson will be deified, and Anderson will not be recognized for how core to that team he is.

The nonsense about the Habs not being built for the playoffs is crap. Luck allows worse teams to win in the playoffs. And sometimes they win cups. That's why I love hockey. Better teams can be eliminated by worse teams.

So I will bow to Anderson because he neutralized the Habs offense, allowing a crappy Senators team to exploit their luck and Montreal's bad goaltending.

But for the love of God, Marc B. don't think you lost to the better team.

Look at the end of the day Therien out-coached McLean. McLean's entire season was bailed out by Anderson. his playoffs was bailed by Anderson. Anderson would be the indisputable MVP + Vezina trophy winner if he didn't get injured.

The rest of the Ottawa team thinks they are actually doing something, they're not. Anderson eliminates the huge disadvantage in chances they concede through his play, which then allows a mediocre team to beat a much better team.

For the future, if Anderson keeps playing like he did this season we might be looking at the greatest goalie of all time. And Ottawa has a bright future. If Anderson reverts to a more human level, Ottawa is toast.

Obviously, the joker for Ottawa is Karlson. Watching Karlson play, this series was a disappointment. He never dominated play, he never created offensive opportunities.

For Montreal, a window of opportunity has opened that centers around PK Subban. As long as PK Subban is as great as he appears, we can win the cup. This may be a 10 year opportunity. Hopefull we figure it out in the next 10.