Nitish vs Shahabuddin war of words and its possible impact on UP Elections

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In the war of words between Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and RJD’s Ex-MP Mohammad Shahabuddin, the latter seems to win. It’s because he – a leader with noted criminal history has a close proximity with RJD boss Lalu Yadav.

It goes back to 2005 when Nitish Kumar was gaining strength from his moral positioning. He was trying to make Bihar – a safer place to live. In order to do so, he put criminal-dons of Bihar like Shahbuddin, Prabhunath Singh & Surajbhan Singh behind bars. He ordered to set up trial courts in Siwan jail because Shahabuddin showed himself medically unfit to face trial in courts. He got multiple punishments ranging from one year, two years and ten years in different cases. Yet, he still has to face trial in 37 cases along with a CBI inquiry.

But time has changed. Now, Nitish is heading a coalition government with a support of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD’s upper hand. Yet, he tried to contain Shahabuddeen like before by shifting him from Siwan jail to Bhagalpur Jail in the current government. But he couldn’t further stop his release, possibly due to pressure coming from Lalu Yadav.

And, as it’s openly predicted that Shahabuddin will not let it all go easily, Shahabuddin has started attacking the authority of Nitish Kumar.

Apparently, Nitish Kumar has risen in his political career but for ex-RJD MP, he is just another politician from Bihar who shouldn’t have challenge his authority at the first place. So, now when he is out and will do what he was doing from inside the jail, he is going to attack Nitish over and over again.

Will Nitish act tough against Shahabuddin?

It’s a question worth answering. Seeing the current political scenario, Nitish Kumar can’t do much. As per the news reports, Nitish has had a meeting with senior JDU leaders to discuss the possibility of imposing crime control against Shahabuddin. Reportedly, Nitish is angry with Lalu Prasad Yadav because he’s not stopping the criminal don.

So, here comes the question – will Nitish impost CCA? The answer to this question is no.

Nitish will not do so by risking the longevity of his coalition government. He doesn’t anymore gain strength from his moral positioning among Bihari population. Many loyal Nitish Kumar fan voters showed displeasure over Nitish joining Lalu Camp before voting begun.

Apparently, RJD gained most from Mahagathbandhan while JDU didn’t perform well in comparison to previous elections.

So, now if in case Nitish breaks ties Lalu over this issue he has nothing to lose but he will lose more.

Can Shahabuddin Impact UP Elections?

It’s another question that’s not being asked now because it might be too early to predict anything for UP elections. But I personally think that this political development can impact UP Elections. This is how it can. If you are watching closely then you must have noticed political developments since 5th of September.

On 5th of September, Shivpal Yadav from Samajwadi Party announced that merger of Mukhtar Ansari’s Kaumi Ekta party with SP is inevitable and happen soon. And, issued the warning of possible riots in UP before elections.

(Mukhar Ansari known for his criminal history and hold in Muslim voters comes from Mau – a region with Muslim majority, fall close to UP-Bihar border.

On 7th of September, bail order of Shahabuddin comes and Bihar’s Deputy CM Tejaswi Yadav gives a statement that Nitish Kumar will be a better PM than PM Modi.

On 10th of September, Shahabuddin gets a grand welcome by RJD leaders and attacks Nitish Kumar.

On 11th of September, Nitish responded back – It doesn’t matter what one person says, I have got people’s mandate.

On 12th of September, Lalu responded on this development – Shahabuddin hasn’t said anything like this, He said Lalu is my leader and Nitish Kumar has no problem on this part.

Apparently, on the same day, JDU has issued a show cause notice to its MLA Girdhari Yadav who went to Bhagalpur Jail to attend Shahabuddin. So…thodi taklif to hai.

Coming back to the question – Will it impact UP elections? I think yes. Shahabuddin’s has influence over Muslim voters of a Bihar’s siwan district that falls adjacent to UP border.

Siwan is close to UP’s constituencies that have Muslim majorities like Deoria, Balia, Gorakhpur, and Mau.

Now, come back to what Shivpal Yadav has warned of. Riots. He has played the same card that SP has been playing since long to bring in Muslim – Frighten Muslim voters with Riots and get their votes.

So, now just think for a moment if it happens then who will benefit the most. It’s BJP and SP. Because if the polarization of votes happens, a big part of UP’s 19.3 Muslim vote share will fall in SP’s account and a majority of Hindu votes will go to BJP. And, figures like Shahabuddin and Mukhtar Ansari will be really helpful for SP for re-establish its ages old Muslim-Yadav vote bank political equation for upcoming elections.

So, if this’s not just a coincidence then Nitish has fallen in the great game and great game is terrifying.