I was at a restaurant this morning eating breakfast. At one of the tables, four blue-collar-type men were discussing guess what: Bitcoin! From their conversation, they were obvious newbies to crypto, repeating all the misconceptions that most people have about it. Hilarious!

I have had lots of these experiences and keep thinking of Joe Kennedy...hilarious, scary, and honestly sad.

41,000.

Pardon me as I read these one hundred and fifty-seven SP vs LLC vs Scorp threads...

A couple of you were asking "which bitcoin price". My OP listed the aggregate price listed on http://winkdex.com as our single source of truth.

Ironically, after over a year of providing an aggregate price, they took that down and says their XBT "Bitcoin Futures Contracts" is "coming soon". So I can't even follow my own instructions at this time. I'll check again tomorrow.

In any event, here are the bets (so far) for peak price and peak date before the crash. Honor and glory await!

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

It's up to 17,500 today. I think the top will be $17,500. The only rational conclusion is that the top is where it's currently at.

Because there is no logical reason for this increase.

1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

2. It has absolutely no inherent value. At least you could hold a tulip and use it to decorate. BTC is literally nothing.

3. It was originally supposed to be a currency that hedges against inflation, because unlike the dollar governments can't just print bitcoins. BUT its price is so erratic that no one would seriously use it as a currency. Do the few stores that take it sell their BTC for dollars immediately after accepting the BTC? That seems to be the only rational thing to do.

A November 2017 survey of 564 bitcoin owners in the U.S. included this question:

At what price per Bitcoin would you be willing to sell all of your Bitcoin investment?
On average, respondents reported that they would be willing to sell all of their Bitcoin investment at $196,165.79 per Bitcoin. At the time of the survey completion, the price per Bitcoin was $6,490.

So, since this is a completely speculative asset, my completely speculative guess at a top price is $195,000. Also:

Over half of the survey respondents (56%) could be considered short-term investors (< 3 year holding period).

My guess is a top of $120,000, and $50,000 by the end January 2018. I expect a bunch of people with paper profits will talk up bitcoin during the holidays leading more people to jump on the roller coaster.

Just trying to educate, don't take it personally. See my responses below.

1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

2. It has absolutely no inherent value. At least you could hold a tulip and use it to decorate. BTC is literally nothing.

WE ARE SHARING INFORMATION ABOUT INVESTMENTS IN THIS FORUM. THIS COULD NOT BE DONE YEARS AGO. PEOPLE CHARGED HUGE FEES AND THEN JACK BOGEL CAME ALONG WITH VANGUARD.

SO THE NEXT QUESTION IS, DO WE NEED VANGUARD? WHAT HAPPENS IF THIS FORUM COULD CREATE OUR OWN INDEX FUNDS AND HAVE PERFECT TRUST? THAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BLOCKCHAIN.

3. It was originally supposed to be a currency that hedges against inflation, because unlike the dollar governments can't just print bitcoins. BUT its price is so erratic that no one would seriously use it as a currency. Do the few stores that take it sell their BTC for dollars immediately after accepting the BTC? That seems to be the only rational thing to do.

THIS WAS NOT THE ORIGINAL CONCEPT. THE KEY PROBLEM IS/HAS BEEN - 1) THERE IS BITCOIN THE CURRENCY 2) THERE IS THE TECHNOLOGY WHICH IS THE "BLOCKCHAIN" BUT WAS ORIGINALLY ALSO CALLED bitcoin. I WILL NOT DISAGREE THAT THE CURRENCY IS PROBABLY OVERVALUED AS THE ORIGINAL BITCOIN TECHNOLOGY HAS ISSUES.

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

MY ORIGINAL COST PER BTC WAS $331 AND I COVERED LONG AGO. I AM NOW DIVERSIFYING INTO OTHER CRYPTO ASSETS. THE SECOND MOST CONSERVATIVE PERSON IN THE WORLD AFTER JACK BOGEL IS MY WIFE, AND SHE AGREES WITH THIS STRATEGY, BUT THAT TOOK TIME. I DONT CARE IF BTC GOES DOWN TO WHATEVER PRICE AS I TOOK A RISK 4 YEARS AGO, GOT A LITTLE LUCKY, AND I AM NOW DIVERSIFYING PROFITS INTO A BLENDED PORTFOLIO OF USD ASSETS 75% AND CRYPTO ASSETS 25%. THE MORE I LEARN, THAT PERCENTAGE COULD SHIFT TO 33% IN 2018.

I am not an either/or guy. This stuff takes a long time, but there is absolutely no way that I need to do a RE Title Search every time I sell, finance, or buy a REAL ESTATE property. Put it on the "blockchain" once with a clear title, and then pay a transfer/administrative fee to your state government. Sorry to the lawyers and title agents, but your days are numbered (some, not all).

The value of blockchain technology will not boost BTC's value. You can have blockchain without BTC. Also, of course Deutche Bank and others are making crypto exchanges. They want a fee on whatever's moving in the economy. Now show me a serious corporation that has invested a lot in crypto.

The value of blockchain technology will not boost BTC's value. You can have blockchain without BTC. Also, of course Deutche Bank and others are making crypto exchanges. They want a fee on whatever's moving in the economy. Now show me a serious corporation that has invested a lot in crypto.

I now see BTC as a possible "base crypto asset", and I agree with you about the fact the BTC is not needed for the technology which is why I am shifting to other Cryptos. However, Coinbase and others have now created networks of people and this has value.

The head of Facebook's Messenger platform just went on the Board of Coinbase. Before Facebook, he was the President of Paypal:

When you have 2 billion people on the FB platform, most can't send/use USD, and they will eventually find a solution. I have personally never used FB's money payment system. A solution is a Crypto Asset that would then tie into your local Fiat currency. I was skeptical of Facebook when it went public as I thought it was too diverse for my taste. I was right at the beginning after their IPO, but wow was I wrong in the long run.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.

I'm not looking to get rich quick (crypto), I'm not looking to get rich slow (index funds).. I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate).

Just trying to educate, don't take it personally. See my responses below.

1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

Long time reader, first time poster. In fact, I registered in order to post an entry in this poll.

$60K on Jan 11, 2018

The range is $40-100K, +/- 8 days. I consider the 2nd half of the range more likely. My price target is not that outlandish compared with others but the timing probably is. I consider timing much more relevant for trade execution in the bubble blow-off phase.

For the price to rise that fast it will have to make a definitive new high very soon and enter an exponential regime, Sunday Dec 17 in my model or early next week at the latest.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.

I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.

I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.

The counter argument to my hypothesis is that the current BTC market is tiny compared to other asset classes. CME/CBOE/ledgerX offering BTC futures legitimizes BTC in the eyes of institutional money. It is becoming more regulated, more acceptable to invest in BTC. New asset classes are few and far between, especially ones with ZERO correlation with other asset classes. To Wall street, this is the perfect portfolio diversifier a a time when alpha is hard to find. 100s of crypto hedge funds being started. I believe 20 applications for BTC ETF have been submitted now that futures approved. Institutional money buying the dip could outpace the upcoming retail investor panic. If so, BTC well over 100K in 2018.

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.

I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.

The counter argument to my hypothesis is that the current BTC market is tiny compared to other asset classes. CME/CBOE/ledgerX offering BTC futures legitimizes BTC in the eyes of institutional money. It is becoming more regulated, more acceptable to invest in BTC. New asset classes are few and far between, especially ones with ZERO correlation with other asset classes. To Wall street, this is the perfect portfolio diversifier a a time when alpha is hard to find. 100s of crypto hedge funds being started. I believe 20 applications for BTC ETF have been submitted now that futures approved. Institutional money buying the dip could outpace the upcoming retail investor panic. If so, BTC well over 100K in 2018.

The current Beanie Baby market is tiny compared to other asset classes. Thus, Beanie Babies should go to $50,000 each!

In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

It's up to 17,500 today. I think the top will be $17,500. The only rational conclusion is that the top is where it's currently at.

Because there is no logical reason for this increase.

1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

2. It has absolutely no inherent value. At least you could hold a tulip and use it to decorate. BTC is literally nothing.

3. It was originally supposed to be a currency that hedges against inflation, because unlike the dollar governments can't just print bitcoins. BUT its price is so erratic that no one would seriously use it as a currency. Do the few stores that take it sell their BTC for dollars immediately after accepting the BTC? That seems to be the only rational thing to do.

Ah heck, I'll say 74953, only because the hype is really rolling now. I see Marketwatch has added a bitcoin window in it's market tabs where you can track the instantaneous bitcoin value in a number of different currencies. That seems a bit redundant to me.

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.

Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions!

Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.

Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions!

Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.

Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".

In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.

Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions!

Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.

Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".

In your mind, is there even a 0.01% chance that the bitcoin network becomes adopted as a worldwide currency? Surely you think there is that much of a possibility. Or is it zero?

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.

Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions!

Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.

Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.

Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions!

Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.

Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".

In your mind, is there even a 0.01% chance that the bitcoin network becomes adopted as a worldwide currency? Surely you think there is that much of a possibility. Or is it zero?

I think that is a 0% probability.

But even if it is 0.01%, that doesn't mean that the current price of bitcoin isn't a bubble.

In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.
[/quote]

I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.
[/quote]

Not sure if we were looking at the same chart. The one I saw has y (price) axis in base 10, so a Log-Ln relationship. In other words Price has almost a cubic relation to time. This is not sustainable. It’s misleading to call that a logarithmic trendline.

The chart I saw originated from the speculation subforum on of a major bitcoin forum.

Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support and resistance trendlines multiple times and many traders used it as buying/selling opportunities. In late Nov it broke through the logarithmic resistance trendline. This increased the slope of its price appreciation and is beginning to create a unsustainable parabola of price growth. I think we'll reach the top of this parabola within a few weeks, crash, and test the bottom support of the logarithmic trendline during the crash.

Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support and resistance trendlines multiple times and many traders used it as buying/selling opportunities. In late Nov it broke through the logarithmic resistance trendline. This increased the slope of its price appreciation and is beginning to create a unsustainable parabola of price growth. I think we'll reach the top of this parabola within a few weeks, crash, and test the bottom support of the logarithmic trendline during the crash.

This is not how people in this Forum are encouraged to think about investments - technical charting.

I have a little more sympathy (although I am not a Technical Analyst) BUT I think the underlying mathematics has to be far far more sophisticated.

Financial assets tend to have fractal return patterns. For example this is true of Dutch housing prices since 1630, the longest period housing price dataset that we have-- there is no systematic underlying trend, merely periods when housing prices were very high, and very low. For any given period of price data, it is time scale invariant-- you can't tell whether you are looking at monthly, annual, decadal, century or 4 century data*. Mandelbrot found something similar for daily prices of Egyptian cotton-- again we have continuous daily pricing data since the 1530s.

I agree the price rises are probably unsustainable, but I don't know whether they become unsustainable at $2,000 ; $20,000 or $100,000.

* this is my hand-wavy, non technical understanding of fractals. Apologies to those with more sophisticated mathematical knowledge.

Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support and resistance trendlines multiple times and many traders used it as buying/selling opportunities. In late Nov it broke through the logarithmic resistance trendline. This increased the slope of its price appreciation and is beginning to create a unsustainable parabola of price growth. I think we'll reach the top of this parabola within a few weeks, crash, and test the bottom support of the logarithmic trendline during the crash.

This is not how people in this Forum are encouraged to think about investments - technical charting.

I have a little more sympathy (although I am not a Technical Analyst) BUT I think the underlying mathematics has to be far far more sophisticated.

Financial assets tend to have fractal return patterns. For example this is true of Dutch housing prices since 1630, the longest period housing price dataset that we have-- there is no systematic underlying trend, merely periods when housing prices were very high, and very low. For any given period of price data, it is time scale invariant-- you can't tell whether you are looking at monthly, annual, decadal, century or 4 century data*. Mandelbrot found something similar for daily prices of Egyptian cotton-- again we have continuous daily pricing data since the 1530s.

I agree the price rises are probably unsustainable, but I don't know whether they become unsustainable at $2,000 ; $20,000 or $100,000.

* this is my hand-wavy, non technical understanding of fractals. Apologies to those with more sophisticated mathematical knowledge.

That is my understanding of fractals as well.

In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

I call it 200k Dec 2018. Now this technology is only in its own infancy and will be changing dramatically. I don't believe that crypto will replace cash or cards, however banking system will change dramatically within next decade.

Similar to Tesla, bitcoins are backed by the full faith and credit of investor hype, thus its impossible to call a top. /heavy sarcasm

Surely you agree Tesla has more value than Bitcoin? If Tesla traded at a reasonable (Whatever that means) valuation, people would talk about how undervalued it is, given the innovation.

But yes, there is no stopping the hype cycle investor and thus a top is impossible to call. Recall, if you will, this thing called the Dot Com bubble and how long that lasted. Even the housing bubble got ridiculous before it caved in. (Full apologies to all those negatively impacted by these bubbled).