000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.
A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33
KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.
A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33
KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.
A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33
KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.
A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33
KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS66 KOTX 031026
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-exsistent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expectation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031026
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-exsistent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expectation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031026
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-exsistent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.
For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin
Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.
Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expectation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 17 43 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 37 15 44 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 37 18 44 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 40 20 48 27 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 41 16 45 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 34 13 41 21 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 14 40 23 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 21 49 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 45 24 50 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 20 48 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031006
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
206 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY IN THE 60S LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BESIDES FOR SOME
STRATO-CUMULUS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS INDICATE THAT FOG IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD BETWEEN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IS LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CLOSE TO SATURATION ALONG THE COAST...AND EXPECT SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
AREAS WHERE FOG DOES NOT FORM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR NEAR
FREEZING. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR 60
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND NORTH OF WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. TJ
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AND THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING FRI AS A
SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A BIT
MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT FOR A LITTLE
MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE GFS STARTS
MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM
KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH VARIABLE
THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG THIS AM JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE
COWLITZ VALLEY...COASTAL VALLEYS AND ALONG THE WILLAMETTE RIVER
FROM KSLE SOUTHWARD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. EARLY AM
FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND NW OF FIELD AREA...MAINLY
OVER CLARK COUNTY TOWARDS KSPB. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PAC AND INTO THE PAC
NW OVER WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN NOT ALL THAT STRONG WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS STILL
AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON THE WATERS THIS AM...BUT THESE WILL SUBSIDE A
BIT...BUT STILL RUN AT 4 TO 5 FT FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031006
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
206 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY IN THE 60S LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BESIDES FOR SOME
STRATO-CUMULUS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS INDICATE THAT FOG IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD BETWEEN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IS LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CLOSE TO SATURATION ALONG THE COAST...AND EXPECT SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
AREAS WHERE FOG DOES NOT FORM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR NEAR
FREEZING. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR 60
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND NORTH OF WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. TJ
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AND THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING FRI AS A
SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A BIT
MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT FOR A LITTLE
MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE GFS STARTS
MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM
KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH VARIABLE
THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG THIS AM JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE
COWLITZ VALLEY...COASTAL VALLEYS AND ALONG THE WILLAMETTE RIVER
FROM KSLE SOUTHWARD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. EARLY AM
FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND NW OF FIELD AREA...MAINLY
OVER CLARK COUNTY TOWARDS KSPB. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PAC AND INTO THE PAC
NW OVER WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN NOT ALL THAT STRONG WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS STILL
AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON THE WATERS THIS AM...BUT THESE WILL SUBSIDE A
BIT...BUT STILL RUN AT 4 TO 5 FT FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KOTX 030539
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Snow showers are on the decrease both in intensity and coverage
per recent radar. Some of the locations that received snow from
the most intense snow showers or multiple snow showers were able
to produce localized accumulations as much as 3-4 inches, with
many locations in between showers that received little to no snow.
Brisk and gusty northerly wind remain in the wake of the
disturbance passage and will blow overnight but subside through
the day tomorrow. More grid adjustments may be necessary but text
based forecasts seem to be handling the current trend and may be
updated once the snow showers are over. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expecation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 030539
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Snow showers are on the decrease both in intensity and coverage
per recent radar. Some of the locations that received snow from
the most intense snow showers or multiple snow showers were able
to produce localized accumulations as much as 3-4 inches, with
many locations in between showers that received little to no snow.
Brisk and gusty northerly wind remain in the wake of the
disturbance passage and will blow overnight but subside through
the day tomorrow. More grid adjustments may be necessary but text
based forecasts seem to be handling the current trend and may be
updated once the snow showers are over. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expecation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 030539
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Snow showers are on the decrease both in intensity and coverage
per recent radar. Some of the locations that received snow from
the most intense snow showers or multiple snow showers were able
to produce localized accumulations as much as 3-4 inches, with
many locations in between showers that received little to no snow.
Brisk and gusty northerly wind remain in the wake of the
disturbance passage and will blow overnight but subside through
the day tomorrow. More grid adjustments may be necessary but text
based forecasts seem to be handling the current trend and may be
updated once the snow showers are over. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expecation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 030539
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Snow showers are on the decrease both in intensity and coverage
per recent radar. Some of the locations that received snow from
the most intense snow showers or multiple snow showers were able
to produce localized accumulations as much as 3-4 inches, with
many locations in between showers that received little to no snow.
Brisk and gusty northerly wind remain in the wake of the
disturbance passage and will blow overnight but subside through
the day tomorrow. More grid adjustments may be necessary but text
based forecasts seem to be handling the current trend and may be
updated once the snow showers are over. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Snow showers bringing spotty IFR ceilings and
visibilities on the decrease this evening and should end and/or
move out of the area tonight. Other issue of note is the brisk and
gusty northerly winds moving into the area behind the disturbance
that brought the snow showers. All will move out of the area
tonight and wind should decrease tomorrow with the expecation that
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KPQR 030459
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FOG COVERAGE WAS REDUCED A
BIT...WITH RIVER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
SOUTHWEST BC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF A SOUTHWEST MARINE
PUSH MATERIALIZES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARED
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES...BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS TO START IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STARTING OUT A
BIT HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW DISSIPATING OFF THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...SO LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
PYLE/WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 030459
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FOG COVERAGE WAS REDUCED A
BIT...WITH RIVER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
SOUTHWEST BC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF A SOUTHWEST MARINE
PUSH MATERIALIZES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARED
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES...BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS TO START IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STARTING OUT A
BIT HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW DISSIPATING OFF THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...SO LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
PYLE/WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 030459
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FOG COVERAGE WAS REDUCED A
BIT...WITH RIVER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
SOUTHWEST BC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF A SOUTHWEST MARINE
PUSH MATERIALIZES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARED
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES...BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS TO START IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STARTING OUT A
BIT HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW DISSIPATING OFF THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...SO LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
PYLE/WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 030459
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FOG COVERAGE WAS REDUCED A
BIT...WITH RIVER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
SOUTHWEST BC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF A SOUTHWEST MARINE
PUSH MATERIALIZES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARED
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES...BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS TO START IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STARTING OUT A
BIT HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW DISSIPATING OFF THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...SO LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
PYLE/WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 030459
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FOG COVERAGE WAS REDUCED A
BIT...WITH RIVER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
SOUTHWEST BC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF A SOUTHWEST MARINE
PUSH MATERIALIZES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARED
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES...BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS TO START IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STARTING OUT A
BIT HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW DISSIPATING OFF THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...SO LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
PYLE/WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 030459
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FOG COVERAGE WAS REDUCED A
BIT...WITH RIVER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
SOUTHWEST BC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF A SOUTHWEST MARINE
PUSH MATERIALIZES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARED
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES...BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS TO START IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STARTING OUT A
BIT HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW DISSIPATING OFF THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...SO LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
PYLE/WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KSEW 030451
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS AND OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FRASER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL DRIVE CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCALES. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT AND DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL ALONG 140W WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE NORTH CASCADES. ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO MILDER LEVELS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND INSIDE OF 130W ON
FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ONCE AGAIN INTO EASTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NOW
FAMILIAR PATTERN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY
AND INTO THE LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ON
TUE. 33
KSEA...NE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS. THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL SEE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL EASE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 030451
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS AND OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FRASER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL DRIVE CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCALES. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT AND DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL ALONG 140W WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE NORTH CASCADES. ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO MILDER LEVELS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND INSIDE OF 130W ON
FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ONCE AGAIN INTO EASTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NOW
FAMILIAR PATTERN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY
AND INTO THE LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ON
TUE. 33
KSEA...NE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS. THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL SEE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL EASE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KOTX 030302
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
702 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updates to zones and grids to better address the localized snow
accumulations associated with the convective showers moving south
at about 25 mph through Eastern Washington and parts of North
Idaho right now. They are all associated with peak heating of the
evening and a shortwave dropping down through the area which is
quite visible as a small localized area of rotation on the water
vapor channel. Some webcams and spotters have noted they have
received up to two inches of snow under the more heavier snow
showers and/or have been hit with more than one snow shower this
evening. Zones have better wording to address this and note that
the trend is for all the convective snow showers to decrease
overnight. Potential additional impacts brought about by this snow
would be refreezing of any lingering snowmelt on roadways tonight
which could result in slick conditions later on tonight and into
Tuesday morning. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.
All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.
The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.
Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.
Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.
There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 37 17 43 23 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 16 37 14 43 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 18 37 17 43 26 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 26 40 20 47 27 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 41 16 45 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 17 34 12 41 21 44 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 17 32 13 40 22 45 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 22 44 20 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 45 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 22 45 19 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KPQR 022224
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WHILE MOISTURE LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS PERSIST DUE TO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...
BUT THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING...GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH 03Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE VALLEYS.
KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY GET BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WIND AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME FOG AFFECTING KPDX BY SUNRISE. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LUMBER ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON COAST...AND WAS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF
FLORENCE AS OF 2 PM. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW DELAYED THE
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...AND ANY GRADIENT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE LAND BREEZE TAKES OVER
AROUND SUNSET. THEREFORE ONLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS REMAIN IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN
MARGINAL ALL ALONG...AND WE WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD STILL NOTE THAT SEAS WILL BE STEEP IN THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 022224
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...WHILE MOISTURE LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS PERSIST DUE TO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...
BUT THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING...GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH 03Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE VALLEYS.
KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY GET BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WIND AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME FOG AFFECTING KPDX BY SUNRISE. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LUMBER ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON COAST...AND WAS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF
FLORENCE AS OF 2 PM. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW DELAYED THE
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...AND ANY GRADIENT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE LAND BREEZE TAKES OVER
AROUND SUNSET. THEREFORE ONLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS REMAIN IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN
MARGINAL ALL ALONG...AND WE WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD STILL NOTE THAT SEAS WILL BE STEEP IN THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.
Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.
Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.
In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.
Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.
I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.
Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 19 34 17 42 23 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 39 17 35 14 43 20 / 60 50 10 0 0 0
Pullman 43 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 43 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 40 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 37 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 37 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 70 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 49 22 44 19 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.
Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.
Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.
In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.
Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.
I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.
Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 19 34 17 42 23 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 39 17 35 14 43 20 / 60 50 10 0 0 0
Pullman 43 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 43 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 40 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 37 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 37 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 70 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 49 22 44 19 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.
Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.
Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.
In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.
Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.
I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.
Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 19 34 17 42 23 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 39 17 35 14 43 20 / 60 50 10 0 0 0
Pullman 43 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 43 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 40 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 37 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 37 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 70 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 49 22 44 19 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.
Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.
Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.
In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.
Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.
I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.
Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 19 34 17 42 23 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 39 17 35 14 43 20 / 60 50 10 0 0 0
Pullman 43 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 43 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 40 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 37 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 37 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 70 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 49 22 44 19 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.
SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.
SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.
SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.
SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021045
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. MCDONNAL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHERLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCLM
WHERE NE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP CIGS NEAR 2000 FT. 33
KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. TODAY WITH
N/NE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
GALE WATCH NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021045
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. MCDONNAL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHERLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCLM
WHERE NE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP CIGS NEAR 2000 FT. 33
KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. TODAY WITH
N/NE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
GALE WATCH NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021042
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AS ADVERTISED...A WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAIN TO THE COAST AND EVEN
SOME INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
OUT NEAR 140W WILL OTHERWISE BE THE MAIN FEATURE NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA MOST OF THIS WEAK. SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES MAY BACKDOOR AND BRUSH THE CASCADE CREST AREA TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VACILLATING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
A BIT OF INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS POINT...DRY WEATHER COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS WERE PRETTY GOOD SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH ALONG OUR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE RADAR ECHOES ACTUALLY FIT THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION FIELD PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY LATER THIS MORNING...SO LOOK FOR RATHER DRAMATICALLY DECREASING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE TODAY FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND BEGIN CLEARING SOME... BUT
SOME SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE RATHER PERSISTENT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT...AS THAT AREA IS BACKDOORED BY SOME CLOUDS OR MOISTURE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANY OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES IS MODEST...WITH THE MAIN
EAST WIND NEAR THE GORGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SO WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE IN THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AROUND THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NIPPY WITH THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS DOWN NEAR FREEZING LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE
NEAR OR EVEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR INLAND...WITH MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...DRIER AIR FROM N WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG N OREGON COAST...AND SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
FARTHER INLAND...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY LOW VFR THIS AM...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN UNTIL 16Z. WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AFTER 20Z AS INCREASING
DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO REGION. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEK...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING S...THUS MAINTAINING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE. ALSO HAVE SEAS
RUNNING AROUND 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND WITH THE SHORT
PERIOD DUE TO WINDS... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEEP LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS TODAY. BUT AS WINDS EASE LATER TODAY...SO TOO WILL THE SEAS
SUBSIDE. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 021042
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AS ADVERTISED...A WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAIN TO THE COAST AND EVEN
SOME INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
OUT NEAR 140W WILL OTHERWISE BE THE MAIN FEATURE NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA MOST OF THIS WEAK. SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES MAY BACKDOOR AND BRUSH THE CASCADE CREST AREA TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VACILLATING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
A BIT OF INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS POINT...DRY WEATHER COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS WERE PRETTY GOOD SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH ALONG OUR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE RADAR ECHOES ACTUALLY FIT THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION FIELD PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY LATER THIS MORNING...SO LOOK FOR RATHER DRAMATICALLY DECREASING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE TODAY FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND BEGIN CLEARING SOME... BUT
SOME SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE RATHER PERSISTENT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT...AS THAT AREA IS BACKDOORED BY SOME CLOUDS OR MOISTURE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANY OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES IS MODEST...WITH THE MAIN
EAST WIND NEAR THE GORGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SO WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE IN THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AROUND THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NIPPY WITH THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS DOWN NEAR FREEZING LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE
NEAR OR EVEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR INLAND...WITH MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...DRIER AIR FROM N WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG N OREGON COAST...AND SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
FARTHER INLAND...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY LOW VFR THIS AM...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN UNTIL 16Z. WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AFTER 20Z AS INCREASING
DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO REGION. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEK...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING S...THUS MAINTAINING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE. ALSO HAVE SEAS
RUNNING AROUND 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND WITH THE SHORT
PERIOD DUE TO WINDS... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEEP LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS TODAY. BUT AS WINDS EASE LATER TODAY...SO TOO WILL THE SEAS
SUBSIDE. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.
Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.
Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin
Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 19 34 17 42 23 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 17 35 14 43 20 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 42 21 35 17 43 25 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 26 39 20 47 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 45 22 39 16 45 21 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 39 16 33 12 40 20 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 38 17 31 13 40 21 / 80 60 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 50 24 43 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 51 27 44 20 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 22 44 19 48 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020500
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS PER CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...WHILE...LOOKING AT OBS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
MAKING IT EAST OF PUGET SOUND. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION ON COASTAL AREAS FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BIT OF RAIN INLAND EITHER. AS
SUCH...INHERITED FORECAST HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HELPING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE IS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BRINGING DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SMR/SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...FROM 230 PM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY
DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 33
KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT MON
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES MON EVENING. 33
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N/NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE ON TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH N INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020500
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS PER CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...WHILE...LOOKING AT OBS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
MAKING IT EAST OF PUGET SOUND. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION ON COASTAL AREAS FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BIT OF RAIN INLAND EITHER. AS
SUCH...INHERITED FORECAST HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HELPING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE IS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BRINGING DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SMR/SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...FROM 230 PM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY
DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 33
KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT MON
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES MON EVENING. 33
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N/NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE ON TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH N INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020500
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS PER CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...WHILE...LOOKING AT OBS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
MAKING IT EAST OF PUGET SOUND. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION ON COASTAL AREAS FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BIT OF RAIN INLAND EITHER. AS
SUCH...INHERITED FORECAST HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HELPING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE IS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BRINGING DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SMR/SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...FROM 230 PM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY
DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 33
KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT MON
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES MON EVENING. 33
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N/NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE ON TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH N INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.
KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM
&&
.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.
KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM
&&
.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.
KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM
&&
.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.
KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM
&&
.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.
In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.
* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
certainty at this time.
* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
morning across much of the region.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi
Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.
Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 42 20 35 17 41 / 10 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 27 42 18 36 14 44 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 29 41 21 35 17 44 / 0 40 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 30 46 25 40 20 47 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Colville 28 44 22 40 16 46 / 10 50 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 26 39 16 33 12 40 / 10 60 50 10 0 0
Kellogg 26 38 16 31 13 40 / 0 70 70 10 0 0
Moses Lake 32 49 25 44 20 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 50 25 44 21 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 29 45 22 45 19 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.
In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.
* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
certainty at this time.
* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
morning across much of the region.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi
Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.
Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 42 20 35 17 41 / 10 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 27 42 18 36 14 44 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 29 41 21 35 17 44 / 0 40 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 30 46 25 40 20 47 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Colville 28 44 22 40 16 46 / 10 50 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 26 39 16 33 12 40 / 10 60 50 10 0 0
Kellogg 26 38 16 31 13 40 / 0 70 70 10 0 0
Moses Lake 32 49 25 44 20 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 50 25 44 21 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 29 45 22 45 19 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.
In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.
* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
certainty at this time.
* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
morning across much of the region.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi
Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.
Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 42 20 35 17 41 / 10 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 27 42 18 36 14 44 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 29 41 21 35 17 44 / 0 40 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 30 46 25 40 20 47 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Colville 28 44 22 40 16 46 / 10 50 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 26 39 16 33 12 40 / 10 60 50 10 0 0
Kellogg 26 38 16 31 13 40 / 0 70 70 10 0 0
Moses Lake 32 49 25 44 20 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 50 25 44 21 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 29 45 22 45 19 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.
In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.
* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
certainty at this time.
* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
morning across much of the region.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi
Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.
Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 42 20 35 17 41 / 10 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 27 42 18 36 14 44 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 29 41 21 35 17 44 / 0 40 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 30 46 25 40 20 47 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Colville 28 44 22 40 16 46 / 10 50 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 26 39 16 33 12 40 / 10 60 50 10 0 0
Kellogg 26 38 16 31 13 40 / 0 70 70 10 0 0
Moses Lake 32 49 25 44 20 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 50 25 44 21 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 29 45 22 45 19 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KSEW 012229
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.
KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM
&&
.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KSEW 012229
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.
KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM
&&
.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

000
FXUS66 KOTX 012221
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.
In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.
* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
certainty at this time.
* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
morning across much of the region.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi
Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.
Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 18z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 42 20 35 17 41 / 10 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 27 42 18 36 14 44 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 29 41 21 35 17 44 / 0 40 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 30 46 25 40 20 47 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Colville 28 44 22 40 16 46 / 10 50 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 26 39 16 33 12 40 / 10 60 50 10 0 0
Kellogg 26 38 16 31 13 40 / 0 70 70 10 0 0
Moses Lake 32 49 25 44 20 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 50 25 44 21 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 29 45 22 45 19 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$

000
FXUS66 KPQR 012214
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN VANCOUVER
ISLAND...AND MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD SOUTH AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.
POP/QPF FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
INLAND OVERNIGHT...FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...BUT 18Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z
SREF PLUMES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE WE OPTED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SPEEDING ALONG ON A 100KT+ NORTHERLY
JET STREAM.
18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL/COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS GET A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MVFR CIG AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND
SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH ANY -RADZ.
VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIG/VIS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. AFTER TOMORROW...WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL SEE A
MIXED SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM
AROUND 8 SECONDS TO AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
EACH SWELL AT ONLY ABOUT 2 FT SO COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL ONLY BE
3 TO 5 FT. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 012214
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN VANCOUVER
ISLAND...AND MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD SOUTH AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.
POP/QPF FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
INLAND OVERNIGHT...FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...BUT 18Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z
SREF PLUMES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE WE OPTED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SPEEDING ALONG ON A 100KT+ NORTHERLY
JET STREAM.
18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL/COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS GET A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MVFR CIG AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND
SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH ANY -RADZ.
VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIG/VIS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. AFTER TOMORROW...WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL SEE A
MIXED SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM
AROUND 8 SECONDS TO AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
EACH SWELL AT ONLY ABOUT 2 FT SO COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL ONLY BE
3 TO 5 FT. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

000
FXUS66 KPQR 012214
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN VANCOUVER
ISLAND...AND MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD SOUTH AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.
POP/QPF FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
INLAND OVERNIGHT...FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...BUT 18Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z
SREF PLUMES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE WE OPTED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SPEEDING ALONG ON A 100KT+ NORTHERLY
JET STREAM.
18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL/COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS GET A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MVFR CIG AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND
SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH ANY -RADZ.
VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIG/VIS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. AFTER TOMORROW...WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL SEE A
MIXED SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM
AROUND 8 SECONDS TO AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
EACH SWELL AT ONLY ABOUT 2 FT SO COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL ONLY BE
3 TO 5 FT. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.