I’d like to thank The_Game, who provided the comment in today’s Replay Thread that I have appropriated for the title of this piece.

When I posted the Game Thread 90 minutes before game time, I noted how close the Jays were to their main rivals for the division and wild card, and noted that “this thing can be done.” In fact, I may have subconsciously been overstating the case. I was quoting (not that I’d expect it to be understood, but just because I like the phrase) a very great cricketer by the name of F.W. Spofforth, who uttered that phrase (constantly) through one of the great miracle comebacks in cricket history. The thing is, it would take nothing like a miracle for the Blue Jays to overhaul their rivals and make the playoffs. Merely having their luck even out over the remaining course of the season would just about do it. It’s a tall order to pass three, or even five, other teams - but by no means an impossible one.

The point has been made recently that contending this season is a bonus for the team’s fans, that it was not anticipated and that the team would have to play above its head in order to achieve it. That is true; the “master plan” didn’t anticipate this now, although many of us did predict the .500 record that the Blue Jays enjoy now, and which (in these times of increasing parity) brings a team to the edge of contention. We can then take even greater solace from the fact that the Blue Jays have actually played better than their record as well. We’ve seen the numbers before, but let’s reiterate them here.

Now, the numbers aren’t all this flattering. The Jays have been lucky this year in both creating and preventing runs – they’ve scored more and allowed fewer runs than you’d expect given the statistics. That’s offset to some degree by their level of competition, as they have played against some very tough offenses. But the fact remains that purely in terms of wins versus runs, the Blue Jays are the unluckiest team in baseball. (The Mariners are second, the Brewers a long way behind in third. The Nationals, Diamondbacks, and White Sox – no surprises there – are the luckiest three so far.)

We have heard before, and it’s a sentiment that I agree with, that what “really matters” are the wins and losses. Now as I say, I agree with that – ultimately, at the end of the day, what gets you into contention and wins championships are wins and losses. But let’s face it, this team isn’t quite there yet. So isn’t it a great thing, a really terrific thing, that the Blue Jays are in fact playing this well? Isn’t it a terrific sign from a young team that they are playing well enough – with a few breaks one way or the other – to be a playoff team? It certainly fires me up.

Because, ultimately, wins and losses aren’t the only thing that matters. How the team plays, at-bat to at-bat, inning to inning, game to game, also matters. And that’s something that the Jays have done well so far. Very well, even. There is an irony in all of this talk of the Jays’ lack of luck, too, which is that I haven’t been as pleased with the performance Jays’ manager since the departure of Cito Gaston (with the possible exception of Tim Johnson’s year) and yet the Jays have a terrible record in one-run games and aren’t squeezing out as many wins as you’d expect them to.

Yesterday’s game was a disappointment, despite any number of silver linings (Eric Hinske’s big performance primary among them – he’s been getting marvelous extension through the ball, keeping his weight back). Ted Lilly, cruising and looking in complete control, hurt his shoulder and started to toss the ball up in the fourth. His defense let him down a bit on the Teahen triple and the Ambres single, and Berroa homered off a pretty decent pitch, and suddenly it was 4-4. Just luck, really. The Jays had some bad at-bats when they had done damage to the Royals’ bullpen, putting runners on base. Again, this is “luck”; not in the sense that clutch performance can’t be helped, but just that the opposition didn’t make mistakes when they might have. One game means nothing; improvement is everything.

So, a disappointing loss in a game that might have been won – the story of the season so far. It does break your heart when a good team comes up short time and again like this (at least, it does mine) but it feels good, nevertheless, to have a team that can win games regardless. The Royals actually need these sorts of games to win at all – they don’t get any fun 9-4 poundings like Saturday’s.

I think it’s a credit to the young Royals team that they can bear down and win these kinds of games, when so many teams in their position would lose them. But let’s face it, I’d rather have our team than theirs. Unless I’m very much mistaken, this Blue Jays team is younger than the Royals, though you’d never know it from what they’ve achieved. I will say this for the Blue Jays, that they have managed to rebuild, right under our noses, without the kind of unending nightmare that the Royals are going through now, or which the Twins’ fans suffered through for a decade. As an Expos fan, I had to abide through a similarly punishing suite of years after 1994 – not to the degree that Minnesota did, or Kansas City does now, but certainly agonizing and seemingly unending. If the Blue Jays can manage to get back in touch with the league’s leaders, as they have, with the same budget constraints but without the pain of losing year after to year, more power to them.

In the meantime, let’s remember – five back with 64 to play. This thing can be done!

I'm not sure if this belongs here, but I thought I would share this with you. It looks like Randy Johnson was almost a Jay at the 93 trade deadline. This is from ESPN insider from Peter Gammons.

Then there was the 1993 deadline. Gillick, the then-general manager of the world champion Blue Jays, had proposed a deal to Mariners GM Woody Woodward that would have sent Paul Spoljaric, Steve Karsay and Mike Timlin to Toronto for Randy Johnson. Unfortunately, Gillick didn't hear back from Woodward, and he eventually made a deal with Oakland's Sandy Alderson to acquire Rickey Henderson for Karsay. Then, when he was negotiating with Henderson to waive his no-trade clause, Gillick heard back from Woodward, who accepted the deal. Obviously, Gillick preferred the Seattle deal, but felt he owed Alderson. Henderson accepted the deal, and five years later Johnson went to the Astros in a trade that was a major strike for both teams

The last week or so I've been calculating how far the Jays are out based on all the teams they have to leapfrog - In the past week, the Jays have closed that gap from 15 games back to 10 games back - they could have been all the way up to 7 back if they'd pulled out a win yesterday - While it makes it seem farther back, on a perfect day we can make up 3 games in one day

By this methodology we are 14 games out of the wild card, but on an absolutely prefect day we could make up 5 games in one day

A well timed piece Craig and nicely sums up the teams current playoff situation.

There is no doubt that this thing can be done, but there are so many things in flux right now that should determine if it will be.

Will the A's continue to rock the wildcard standings? Will the Yankee's starters regain some health down the stretch or might they land a couple more arms for the pen or rotation? Same question for the Red Sox.

We know Halladay will be back in two weeks or less, but how long will Lilly be gone.

Your right though. This season has been an entertaining bonus. It has helped a great deal that Boston and the Yanks have stumbled as badly as they have.

If the Jays are able to play .500 baseball until Doc returns, I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to make a run at the Red Sox, or the wildcard for that matter..

No reason? How about the fact that they can't win a series against Kansas City or Tampa Bay? That seems like reason enough to me.

Sarcasm aside, it's time to settle back down to earth and realize that this team if a pleasant surprise, but not quite ready to make a run at the Yanks or Sox. We should be happy with that -- it's a huge improvement over 2004.

He was to see a doctor in Toronto on Monday, but Ricciardi said they don't believe the problem to be serious.
"We don't think it is," Ricciardi said. "If he misses a start, hopefully he makes the next one."

Re: Wells - "...Ricciardi said Wells will play in Tuesday's game against the Los Angeles Angels. He's fine," Ricciardi said.

It's great that the Jays have essentially matched or possibly even exceeded expectations to this point - a .500 club is far better than what we had last year. But if fans are getting antsy and asking more from their team than they would have in seasons past, it's because the Red Sox and Yankees are so vulnerable this year. Who could have guessed a .500 team could be only five games back on July 25th? There's a sense of an opportunity that might not be there in seasons to come - what are the chances the Sox and Yanks are going to scuffle like this next year, or the year after that? Will this year be the Jays' best shot for the next five or ten years?

That being said, as Craig B wrote in the intro, it's not necessarily the wins and losses that matter, but how the games are played, and this team is an exciting one to watch. It seems like they're always fighting, every game, right to the end, and I suspect that was the kind of team J.P. had in mind right from the start. I would rather have this kind of team, a competitive, spunky band of warriors that play .500 or a little better if luck falls their way, than a one-off, mortgage-the-future kind of team.

"No reason? How about the fact that they can't win a series against Kansas City or Tampa Bay? That seems like reason enough to me."

I'm not exactly sure where you are getting your information, but Toronto has beaten Tampa Bay in 3 of the 4 series they have played agaisnt them. Toronto also swept Kansas City the last time they came to town in May. All of those series wins came with a healthy Doc, which is the reason why I said if the Jays are able to pull a .500 record agaisnt these tough teams right up until Doc returns (early August), there would still be a large chance at them making a run at the AL East.

Writing off a season when you are only 5 games back (4 back in the WildCard) in late-July makes no sense.

Saying that Jays fans should be happy with mediocrity just because they did better than last year and are at the .500 mark is a terrible excuse. I've been on teams where we weren't expecting much but made it to the finals, only to find a resulting loss. You hear alot of "Well we did better than we thought we would" after games like this, but it's this kind of thinking from players (and in our case, fans), which limits success in the first place.

From the scoreboard, Einstein. A good place to get information, in my opinion. Perhaps you have a better source, though.

When you're approaching the stretch drive and you choke against KC and TB, you're not a legitimate contender. This team plays down to the level of its competition. Meanwhile, you see the Yanks and Sox mounting huge comebacks seemingly every night.

The Jays are not quite in the same league yet with the big powers. But I'm still happy with their improvement this year.

No, I think he's saying that the team shouldn't lose to them in the stretch drive. The_Game's statement is quite the opposite: that the team can afford to play only .500 ball right now, and go on a tear once Halladay returns.

No, I think he's saying that the team shouldn't lose to them in the stretch drive. The_Game's statement is quite the opposite: that the team can afford to play only .500 ball right now, and go on a tear once Halladay returns.

Bang on. That's exactly what I'm trying to say. The Jays are treading water, thus they are more playoff pretenders than contenders. When Doc comes back, that's only one additional win out of every five games -- not enough.

Sorry if I ruffled a few feathers along the way. I'm just trying to look at this without the rose-coloured glasses. Regardless, this is a fun team to watch.

When Doc comes back, that's only one additional win out of every five games -- not enough.

Well, if the team can keep pace without Doc (and, in fact, they've gained half a game without him), winning five more games above that pace seems easy -- by most reports, Halladay will be back with more than 25 games remaining.

It's not that simple, obviously, but it's not as simple as you're putting it, either.

"From the scoreboard, Einstein. A good place to get information, in my opinion. Perhaps you have a better source, though."

Well yes, I do.. It's merely the fact that Toronto HAS swept Kansas City this year, and HAS won 3 out of the 4 series that they have played agaisnt Tampa Bay. Based on my source "facts", we can clearly see that Toronto has beaten these teams the majority of the time this season.