In the months following the merger, expect to see a pullback and reduction of unprofitable routes. Since 60 aircraft are being returned, they will be focused on trying to right-size the airline rather than spending additional capital to launch service into new markets.

"they've" said that the merged carrier will be operating under 2 certificates for 2 to 3 years - which means that HP crews have to operate HP aircraft - and US crews have to operate US aircraft. My guess is that they're going to right-size the map first .. cut some routes .. prehaps cut frequencies in some markets .. adjusting to the cut in fleet size. Then once they are operating only under one certificate (US) - that's probably when you'll see more connecting of the dots .. just my thoughts.

There will likely be some new routes, but they would be replacing other routes that will be disappearing. It's all about profit....we could also see some new routes open up at the expense of flight frequency from other locations.

I don't know about that, at least not in the near future. ORF is just too close to CLT and especially the focus station at DCA to justify mainline flights to PHX or LAS. I'm seeing mainly a lot of feeder regional service to CLT and DCA and possibly a couple to PIT or BOS. In other words, not much difference. But we'll see.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 11):I don't know about that, at least not in the near future. ORF is just too close to CLT and especially the focus station at DCA to justify mainline flights to PHX or LAS. I'm seeing mainly a lot of feeder regional service to CLT and DCA and possibly a couple to PIT or BOS. In other words, not much difference. But we'll see.

Its very possible, since ORF will be an Air Wisconsin Crew Base and Maintenance Facility. I look for this to be a significant focus operation for USAirways express. To what degree is anyones guess.

Quoting Brokenrecord (Reply 10):Brokenrecord just wants US to retake gates A7 and A9 at ORF, and start some routes to compete with WN (i.e., LAS, FLL). Smile

You people really want US to jump into extremely low-profit, highly served, never-gonna-make-a-buck routes, don't you? LAS, FLL, MCO are NOT routes to start if you want to make money... because the competition is extremely fierce already.

I think you'll see some isolated service increases in the initial consolidation, but only if US identifies any underserved markets. Might see some smaller cities in the West connected to an East Coast hub (e.g. FAT, BFL), but any large-scale expansions will likely come after the fleet rationalization is completed.

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 13):Look for PVD-PHX rather soon into the merger. PVD-LAS should come later on...

Hmmm, tough call. PVD-LAS offers better O&D potential, but PVD-PHX would offer better connections to Mexican destinations. Connections to other west coast cities about the same. BUT WN already flies PVD-PHX non-stop. If they launch new PVD service in winter, then I'd say do PHX first for the Mexico connectivity, otherwise I'd go with LAS first - beat WN to the punch, and why get into a direct fight with WN until you have to?

I know it's not going to happen, but America West already flies BIL-PHX and LAS. I think it would be nice to have some commuter service back east to the US hubs since it will all be US eventually anyway. Just a dream.

What does the new airline gain from this route that cannot already be accomplished through existing flights to existing hubs, and by existing airlines to the primary connecting market from Phoenix: Southern California.

The only thing definite is service to Hawai'i. And even still, I can see this as of primary benefit to satisfy the frequent flyers.....Hawai'i being the number one destination requested on award tickets.

An odd Caribbean destination may pop up here and there....but other than that, US Airways/America West needs to rationalize the network, not make it more byzantine with a myriad of added P2P routes, and redundant hub connectivity to secondary and tertiary markets.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 15):You people really want US to jump into extremely low-profit, highly served, never-gonna-make-a-buck routes, don't you? LAS, FLL, MCO are NOT routes to start if you want to make money... because the competition is extremely fierce already.

Yep.

60 aircraft gone doesn't bode well for expansion.

I would say service cuts are going to be wide-spread. If anything, the aircraft remaining will be used to bolster existing city-pairs...like PHX-SoCal, NE-Florida, and major business centers to the big 3 hubs etc. (PHX/PHL/CLT)

Any expansion to come will most likely come at the hands of their Express partners. It's called shifting the burden of risk to someone else.

If anything, the new combined carrier needs to address the unanswered forays of Southwest into the most-profitable territories of both airlines.
Expect concentrations of services, not spreading the remaining fleet even thinner.
Key markets will become stronger, marginal markets will be cut.

Quoting RICARIZA (Reply 20):I have a flight to Phoenix from MIA in two weeks on HP, Do you think the flight will be affected in some way?

Affected by what? I'm sure it will operate normally.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 15):LAS, FLL, MCO are NOT routes to start if you want to make money

LAS from where? I see many people are not understanding that LAS is going to be a hub, not a focus city. The new airline will have four hubs, not three, and PIT will be a large enough operation to almost be hub #5. Either way, LAS is going to remain a stronghold for the airline as it is now.

LAS has to be your biggest focus either way being the #1 O/D per capita airport in the country. But given that its so heavy on O/D can you really call it a hub versus focus city? How does connecting traffic in percentage of total seats compare to that of PHX, CLT and PHL?