I'm setting sail on Sunday with my Family out of Florida for a Seven Day cruise. Although T.Pain would have been fun, we're taking my Mom instead. I've attached here a DXY update and should be able to get out some S&P 500 thoughts out later this evening.

My bias is to buy the DXY while the S&P 500 looks headed for 1220-1236 zone.

Silver's performance last week was a disappointment. There is still some hope we see the low to mid $40s, but that would look like a sell. The $39.50 resistance area has been a "tough nut" to crack. Silver bulls should continue to pay attention to the $34.30 level for support. If that breaks, it will look bleak.

Gold peaked right into our key resistance last week but has failed to attract "follow on" selling. Even on a short term basis, I would not be long the yellow metal here. It looks like we're beginning the c-wave lower in what looks like a triangle.

One of my favorite SNL "Shorts": "I'm On a Boat" (Warning, it's explicit)

"I got my swim trunks and my flippy floppies...."

To Prove that I'm not some sort of 'crass' individual who just watches 'expletive-laced' videos, I'll leave you with my favorite poem of all time as well.

This will serve as the QOTD for the remainder of the week, unless AR feels like changing it:

"If" by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!

DXYBearish long day (so a bearish engulfing in a downtrend is not good). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. Failed its 14.6% retrace (73.95). Failed weekly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.76).

The Greece Stock Exchange does not look like there's a new bailout plan in place. The weekly candle is forming an inverted hammer so we'll need to see follow through. I wonder if the rumor about the troika (EU, ECB, IMF) report is true.

The trend higher in gold has not stopped even after the hard selling a month ago. Looking at the chart it seems that most dojis or spinning tops resolve higher. It's also well above its weekly and monthly 3LB mids. All SMA's are pointing higher.

Usually silver and gold move together. That correlation has been shot to hell. It has not traded above the mid of the long bearish candle from a month ago (unlike gold). It's below its weekly and monthly 3LB mids. This week looks like the third test of SMA(21) and it appears to be failing. And it's gone.

Copper is a proxy for the global economy. If that's so then things are not doing so well. It's below its weekly 3LB mid and again failing its monthly 3LB mid. This is the fifth week below SMA(21). The high (4.130) from the week of 11/12/10 has been breached so the next support comes in at the the high (3.784) from the week ending 4/16/10.

10YR YIELDBearish long day (and gapped lower). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (29.52). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.21).

The dollar upward bias is under threat as it has closed the month below its monthly 3LB mid. It is holding above both of the upper trend lines. Treading water until 7/1/11 when QE2 ends. If some form of QE3 appears (under whatever name the Fed comes up with) the move down will be intense.

The proxy for European risk restarted its move lower by having a weekly 3LB reversal down last week. That's because any move higher is a temporary reprieve since its monthly 3LB started trending down in March 2008. So obviously bailout, no bailout, bailout, no bailout, etc makes no difference.

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."