FPI Overnight Brief: November 21, 2011

Military police used rubber bullets, truncheons and tear gas in a failed
attempt to expel protesters from a central square in Egypt's capital on
Sunday, in a violent escalation of a two-day battle that threatens to
undermine the stability of parliamentary elections in a week. – Wall Street Journal

Egypt’s military rulers struggled Monday to contain an explosion of
protests demanding their ouster, as demonstrators clashed for a third
successive day with security forces around Tahrir Square after new
clashes broke out across the country. – New York Times

Egypt is preparing to return to negotiations with the International
Monetary Fund for a $3 billion loan "within a couple of weeks," Finance
Minister Hazem al Beblawi said on Friday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Analysis: The violent confrontations of security forces with thousands
of people in Tahrir Square to protest military rule bear a resemblance
to the heady days of February when Hosni Mubarak was ousted. But they
were perhaps more accurately seen as early skirmishes in what is likely
to be a long and chaotic struggle for power, with an uncertain outcome
and huge challenges for American policy makers. – New York Times

Insurgents fired rocket-propelled grenades at the offices of the ruling
Baath Party in Damascus on Sunday in a highly symbolic strike that
signaled a new chapter in the eight-month uprising against the rule of
President Bashar al-Assad. – New York Times

An Arab initiative to end violence in Syria appeared at an impasse
Sunday, as Damascus and Arab foreign ministers failed to agree on a
formula that would allow monitors into the country. – Los Angeles Times

The U.S. and its allies are shifting their efforts to constrict Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad's few remaining financial lifelines, focusing
on ties to Lebanon banks as they increasingly voice confidence that
economic malaise will ultimately force the Assad regime from power – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Syria continued to defy mounting international pressure to halt attacks
on civilian protesters Friday as Turkey and France suggested they are
not ruling out the possibility of military intervention if the violence
continues to escalate. – Washington Post

A harrowing sectarian war has spread across the Syrian city of Homs this
month, with supporters and opponents of the government blamed for
beheadings, rival gangs carrying out tit-for-tat kidnappings, minorities
fleeing for their native villages, and taxi drivers too fearful of
drive-by shootings to ply the streets. – New York Times

Aaron David Miller writes: Inaction by the international community while
a brutal regime kills its people has its costs, but so does big-footing
by great powers. One thing we know about discretionary, poorly
conceived military action is that getting into such conflicts is always a
lot easier than getting out. – New York Times

Lee Smith writes: A recent report from the International Institute for
Strategic Studies explains that the Free Syrian Army, made up of
defectors from the Syrian military, estimates that there are already
17,000 men under arms, operating out of Turkey and, of all places,
Lebanon, the Damascus regime’s terror lab. According to the report, the
FSA’s leaders will call for more defections—as soon as the international
community implements a no-fly zone. That’s the one move the White House
has right now. Time to make it. – The Weekly Standard

The Obama administration is investigating whether Iran supplied the
Libyan government of Moammar Gaddafi with hundreds of special artillery
shells for chemical weapons that Libya kept secret for decades, U.S.
officials said. – Washington Post

Forces loyal to Libya's interim government captured on Sunday the
country's former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi, who is wanted
by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges, said the
ruling National Transitional Council. The arrest of Mr. Senussi, one of
Moammar Gadhafi's closest aides and the alleged mastermind of his
violent crackdown on protesters this year, comes one day after the
capture of Gadhafi's son and heir apparent Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, who is
also wanted by the criminal court on war-crimes charges. – Wall Street Journal

Militia fighters holding Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, the last fugitive son
and onetime heir apparent of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, added conditions
on Sunday to the handover of their prisoner to the fledgling government,
a new challenge to the authority of Prime Minister Abdel Rahim
el-Keeb. – New York Times

The brewing conflict over the fate of two high-ranking Libyan figures —
Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, once Libya’s heir apparent, and Abdullah
Senussi, the former intelligence chief — is not only a test for the
country’s stated commitment to the rule of law, but also a moment of
reckoning for the International Criminal Court as it tries to expand its
reach. – New York Times

The armed militias that emerged from Libya’s civil war and units of the
fledgling Libyan National Army are pressing the interim government for
places in a new cabinet, which is expected to be seated shortly. – New York Times

Creating a coherent army is important, if only to employ the armed
revolutionaries still on the streets. But for those looking to the
future, improving education is even more crucial — and more difficult. –
Washington Post

Kuwait's emir denounced as a "black day" the storming of parliament and
said he would not dissolve the assembly or allow the prime minister to
resign, as demanded by the opposition. - Reuters

Editorial: What Kuwait needs is not a crackdown, but a quicker
progression toward a genuine parliamentary democracy, in which the prime
minister would be chosen by a majority of the parliament – Washington Post

The death at the weekend of another protester in Bahrain has increased
tensions further in the Gulf state ahead of release later this week of a
crucial report into human rights abuses. – Financial Times

The Obama administration on Monday will name Iran, including its central
bank, as a territory of "primary money laundering concern," say senior
U.S. officials, in an effort to further pressure Tehran after recent
disclosures about its alleged role in terrorism and nuclear weapons
proliferation. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Obama administration plans to impose a new round of sanctions
against Iran’s petrochemical industry, a Western official briefed on the
plans said Friday, less than two weeks after a United Nations report
published evidence that the Iranian government was working on a nuclear
weapon. – New York Times

The Obama administration pressed Iran to account for a discrepancy of
nearly 20 kilograms in its reporting to the United Nations' nuclear
agency on how much natural uranium metal it has in its stockpile. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

A mysterious explosion at an Iranian military base last week was caused
when a test of an experimental intercontinental ballistic missile
failed, the brother of a senior Revolutionary Guard Corps commander who
was killed in the incident said Saturday. – Washington Post

Whether he has succeeded in altering any American opinions about Iran is
questionable. But even Mr. Larijani’s critics say he has a smooth,
urbane delivery and a rational demeanor that contrast with the bombast
of some other Iranian leaders who rage against the United States.- New York Times

Authorities in Iran have sentenced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's media
advisor to a year in jail and banned him from working in journalism for
three years because of an article that was deemed to have violated
public decency and Islamic principles, Iranian media reports said
Sunday. – LA Times’ World Now

Satellite surveillance has shown an increase in activity at an Iranian
site suspected of links to alleged secret work on nuclear weapons,
officials tell The Associated Press. - Associated Press

Josh Rogin reports: It's a rare moment of bipartisan unity: The Obama
administration and both congressional Democrats and Republicans all
agree that new measures are needed to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions. But
that's where the agreement ends; battle lines are now set for a fight
in December over the path forward on Iran sanctions. – The Cable

Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz write: Iran hawks should not view
sanctions as a pusillanimous cop-out. Like President Obama’s failed
attempt at diplomatic engagement, sanctions are an unavoidable and
necessary prelude to any more forceful action to stop Ayatollah
Khamenei’s nuclear ambitions. America may be in for a long cold-war
struggle in which sanctions will play a critical role in weakening
Tehran. And the Islamic Republic hardly has the resources of the Soviet
Union. This time, sanctions might actually, sooner rather than later,
put our enemy on his knees. – New York Times

Richard Grenell writes: The strategy to increase pressure on Iran
through international sanctions had a chance to work. But the president
released that pressure and ignored the previous U.S. work to try his
personal diplomacy. The Obama team has succeeded in stopping countries
from grumbling about U.S. policy, but that's only because they haven't
called for an Iran vote in almost 18 months. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The CIA was forced to curtail its spying in Lebanon, where U.S.
operatives and their agents collect crucial intelligence on Syria,
terrorist groups and other targets, after the arrests of several CIA
informants in Beirut this year, according to U.S. officials and other
sources. – Los Angeles Times

The American military has not yet left an air base along the contested
internal border between the semiautonomous Kurdistan region and the rest
of Iraq, but a dispute has already broken out over which side will
control the strategic site once the Americans leave. – New York Times

A top Iraqi parliament deputy says an Iraqi fighter plane will patrol
the country's airspace next week for the first time since 2003, RFE/RL's
Radio Free Iraq reports. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Pressure mounted Sunday on President Asif Ali Zardari to investigate
allegations that Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States had sought
American help to rein in the Pakistani military, as opposition
politicians called for action and records appearing to implicate the
ambassador were leaked to the news media. – New York Times

All over Pakistan, people are asking whether Pakistani President Asif
Ali Zardari approved a memo asking for Washington's help in reining in
the country's powerful military. The answer could play a role in whether
Zardari, already deeply unpopular with both the public and the
military, stays in power. – Los Angeles Times

It’s not exactly Seal Team 6 rehearsing the raid on Abbottabad, but a
video released by the Haqqani network offers a window onto what is
purported to be one of the militant group’s training camps. – Checkpoint Washington

Pakistan's Taliban movement, a major security threat to the country, is
holding exploratory peace talks with the U.S.-backed government, a
senior Taliban commander and mediators told Reuters Monday. - Reuters

Josh Rogin reports: The Cable has obtained the document at the center of
the "memo-gate" controversy, sent allegedly from the highest echelons
of Pakistani's civilian leadership to Adm. Michael Mullen in the wake of
the killing of Osama bin Laden. – The Cable

President Obama and nearly all the leaders at an Asian summit directly
confronted China on Saturday for its expansive claims to the
resource-rich South China Sea, putting the Chinese premier on the
defensive in the long-festering dispute, according to Obama
administration officials. – New York Times

President Obama discussed maritime security, nuclear nonproliferation
and disaster aid at an Asian summit meeting on Friday, but just his
presence on this resort island telegraphed his main message: that the
United States is turning its focus to the booming Asia-Pacific region
after a decade of preoccupation with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. – New York Times

The former president of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, was
arrested in her hospital room on Friday on charges of election fraud,
her lawyer said, after days of dramatic struggle with the government
over whether she would be allowed to leave the country for medical
treatment. – New York Times

If China is unhappy with the Obama administration’s decision to send a
handful of Marines to northern Australia, wait until the U.S. Navy
starts basing warships in Singapore, on the edge of the disputed waters
of the South China Sea. – Checkpoint Washington

The White House issued a statement Nov. 18 saying that it will transfer
more than two dozen surplus F-16 Fighting Falcon jet fighters to
Indonesia. – Defense News

The three most senior surviving commanders of the 1970s Khmer Rouge
regime masterminded one of the "worst horrors" of the 20th century,
killing or enslaving millions of Cambodians, a U.N.-backed war crimes
trial heard on Monday. - Reuters

Mike Abramowitz and Mark Sarna write: It would be easy for the West to
lose interest in the last chapter of a story that mostly took place
decades ago in a far-off conflict once described as a “sideshow” to the
Vietnam War. But just as there is no statute of limitations on the
crimes of the Holocaust, the victims of the “Killing Fields” must see
justice, sooner or later. – Washington Post

President Obama's decision to send Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
Clinton on a groundbreaking trip to long-isolated Myanmar next month
signals U.S. confidence in a recent flurry of political reforms by the
repressive regime that has ruled the country for five decades. – Los Angeles Times

China on Friday sounded a note of caution about ongoing political reform
in Myanmar, a longtime ally that has pushed back against Beijing in
recent months amid tensions over aggressive Chinese resource investment
within its underdeveloped neighbor. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

[T]he reality is that only an estimated 200 of those released turned out
to be political prisoners. None of the most prominent opposition
leaders were among them. For Burmese exiles and pro-democracy groups,
that means Clinton’s trip is an opportunity to push the ruling junta to
do more before she even arrives. – Checkpoint Washington

Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will run in a parliamentary
by-election expected by the end of the year, a top party official said
on Monday, giving legitimacy to moves toward democracy after decades of
military rule. - Reuters

Analysis: The decision by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to rejoin the country’s
military-backed political system has offered a veneer of legitimacy for
the reform efforts of President Thein Sein. The changes appear real,
analysts say…But there is no telling if they are permanent. – New York Times

Editorial: [T]he U.S. needs a "trust but verify" approach to Burma.
Fact-finding missions can be sent to Burma to ascertain how many
political prisoners have been released (and whether those who are
released aren't being harassed or re-arrested), the pace at which
authoritarian laws are repealed, the transparency of elections and so
on. The repeal of sanctions should be the end-point of engagement, not
the starting point. This is a regime that has made too many phony reform
promises in the past to be let off easily now. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)

Daniel Blumenthal writes: There is no dispute that we need to take
serious steps to balance China's power. But we cannot do so by
"pivoting" away from two critical areas of the world. We need India to
have peaceful borders in order to compete with China, and we need to
diminish China's influence in the Middle East. And finally, the Obama
Administration needs to resource its stated Asia strategy, which it so
far shows little sign of doing. – Shadow Government

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh discussed his country's
nuclear-liability laws with U.S. President Barack Obama during a meeting
Friday on the sidelines of an Asian summit in Bali. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Although Gandhi has held a national position with the ruling Congress
Party in New Delhi since 2004 and is not facing any reelection test in
the state polling, the spotlight is on him during this election to see
how effective he is in boosting his party's showing in Uttar Pradesh. – Los Angeles Times

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Sunday said that his country
will support India's bid for a permanent seat at the United Nations
Security Council, an indication of New Delhi's growing geopolitical and
economic clout. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Voters from evacuation zones in Fukushima on Sunday cast ballots in
their first local elections since the March nuclear disaster, with hopes
to send in representatives capable of solving mounting problems, such
as decontaminating vast areas and seeking compensation from the operator
of the troubled plant. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

An expected reduction in U.S. Defense Department modernization spending
is manageable if it is spread out over a number of years, according to
the Pentagon's top military officer. – Defense News

The nation's top military officer [Friday] insisted he did not oppose
the expensive and controversial F-35, on which three of the four
services he leads depend on for their future air capabilities. – AOL Defense

After ten months of weekly meetings on the subject with senior Defense
Department and Navy officials, as well as executives of the plane's
maker, Lockheed Martin, Amos says the company and the program office
under Vice Adm. David Venlet, have resolved two of Gates' larger
concerns entirely and found fixes for five engineering problems cited
that are ready for testing in December and January. – AOL Defense

The Marines' will fall far below the 186,000-man total force it had
initially aimed for once combat operations wind down in Iraq and
Afghanistan, Gen. James Amos said [Friday] morning. – AOL Defense

New fighters, missiles and missions are the hallmarks of the U.S. Air
Force. While these still percolate in long-term plans, near-term fiscal
constraints are forcing the service to craft a delicate balance between
upgrading existing forces and husbanding funds for new equipment. – Aviation Week

U.S. authorities have failed to adequately monitor weapons sales to
Persian Gulf countries criticized for dismal rights records or recent
security crackdowns on protesters, a government audit said Nov. 18. - AFP

Cybersecurity

Foreign hackers caused a pump at an Illinois water plant to fail last week, according to a preliminary state report. – Checkpoint Washington

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) and Michael Chertoff write: Make no mistake:
Our country is under cyberattack, and our national security and
economic future are at severe risk. We believe that the SEC’s guidance —
and the market-driven changes it will create in the way that the
private sector considers risks — is a critical step toward improving
U.S. cybersecurity. – Washington Post

A Manhattan man who became fascinated by the American-born Muslim
militant Anwar al-Awlaki was arrested on charges of plotting to build
and detonate bombs in New York, city officials announced on Sunday
night. – New York Times

Paul Miller writes: The next president of the United States needs to
answer this question: When, and under what conditions, will the U.S.
government stop using drones to bomb suspected terrorists around the
world? – Washington Post

Spaniards struggling with high unemployment and a credit squeeze
delivered a punishing verdict on almost eight years of Socialist
government at the ballot box on Sunday, turning to the conservative
Popular Party in the hopes of alleviating the pain of Europe’s debt
crisis. – New York Times

The chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee has
asked the Pentagon inspector general to report whether Sen. Carl M.
Levin is trying to influence the wording of a report that exonerates a
Pentagon war-briefing program. – Washington Times

Documents from intelligence services of two countries suggest Venezuelan
President Hugo Chávez's cancer has spread to his bones and is more
aggressive than his government has reported. – Wall Street Journal

Witnesses along the drought-stricken Ethiopia-Somalia border reported
Sunday that hundreds of Ethiopian troops had crossed into Somalia with
armored personnel carriers, heavy artillery and tanks, opening a new
front in an intensifying international offensive against the Shabab
militant group. – New York Times

The drought-induced famine crisis in Somalia has eased somewhat, United
Nations officials said on Friday, with the number of people facing
imminent starvation dropping to nearly 250,000 from 750,000 because of
rainfall and increased aid deliveries. – New York Times

About 100 U.S. troops President Obama ordered to Uganda last month to
help crush the cultlike Lord’s Resistance Army will probably remain
deployed until the group’s leader is captured or dead, according to the
top U.S. commander for Africa. – Washington Post

The grand council of Afghan delegates known as the loya jirga drew to a
close Saturday, choosing to support President Hamid Karzai’s vision for
negotiating a strategic agreement that could keep a long-term American
military presence in Afghanistan. – New York Times

The U.S. said it was "heartened" by Saturday's decision of the Loya
Jirga, a four-day gathering of some 2,000 Afghan representatives, to
endorse President Hamid Karzai's plan for an agreement on a long-term
American military presence, even though the meeting set several
conditions that could end up torpedoing the deal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

A handful of other countries fingerprint arriving foreigners, but no
country has ever sought to gather biometric data on everyone who comes
and goes, whatever their nationality. Nor do Afghan authorities plan to
stop there: their avowed goal is to fingerprint, photograph and scan the
irises of every living Afghan. – New York Times

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