Alabama Got Predicted Win Over Tennessee

Kirk McNair

10/27/2015

There was a time last week when those in our Almost Perfect Picks Department were a lot more worried about whether they had wasted money on cigars than the overall results.

Alabama ran into a tough Tennessee team last week before escaping with a 19-14 win in Bryant-Denny Stadium, thus keeping their hopes alive for various championships this year. The Crimson Tide’s next competition is not until week after next when Bama will host undefeated LSU in a night game on CBS.

The APP had just as difficult a time as did Alabama.

Last week, the APP was 4-2 in picking the winning team and 5-1 in predicting the over/under (the predicted combined points total of the two teams), but only 2-4 against the point spread (the number of points by which a team is favored).

For the year the APP is 56-15 in picking SEC winners and 40-23 vs. the over/under, but only 28-35 vs. the spread, also known as against the line.

Here are the results from last week:

Auburn (4-2 overall, 1-2 in Southeastern Conference games) at Arkansas (2-4, 1-2) (Arkansas favored by 5 1/2 points, over/under 49) – PREDICTION: Arkansas 24, Auburn 21. ACTUAL: Arkansas 54, Auburn 46 (4 overtimes). Just before Auburn tied the game on a last-second field goal that barely made it, the score was precisely as the APP had picked. No one can acount for four overtimes. So instead of being correct on all three categories, we were correct on the winner, but wrong on both the prediction against the spread and, of course, the over/under.

Missouri (4-3, 1-3) at Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3) (Missouri favored by 3, o/u 34) – PREDICTION: Missouri 17, Vanderbilt 13. ACTUAL: Vanderbilt 10, Missouri 6. Everyone said the defense on both sides was great, and so we were correct on the o/u, even though it was even lower than we predicted. We were wrong on the straight up winner (but who would pick Vandy to win an SEC game this year?) and wrong against the line.

Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1) at Ole Miss (5-2, 2-1) (Ole Miss favored by 5 1/2, o/u 56) – PREDICTION: A&M 31, Ole Miss 24. ACTUAL: Mississippi 23, Aggies 3. We know better than to pick a team that has just the week before put everything it has into trying to beat Alabama, but this was a case of the APP going with what it hoped, not what it thought. The result was miss the winner straight up and against the line, but getting the o/u.

Kentucky (4-2, 2-2) at Mississippi State (5-2, 1-2) (MSU favored by 11, o/u 54) – PREDICTION: Mississippi State 28, Kentucky 10. ACTUAL: Mississippi State 42, Kentucky 16. Correct on the winner and against the spread, but just off vs. the o/u.

Tennessee (3-3, 1-2) at Alabama (6-1, 3-1) (Alabama favored by 15, o/u 56) – PREDICTION: Alabama 35, Tennessee 17. ACTUAL: Alabama 19, Tennessee 14. The APP underestimated the Vols with the result that we were correct on the winner and the o/u, but missed against the line.