Wednesday, September 14, 2016

When David Cameron's luck finally ran out

Cameron arrived unknown at the top, he didn't "rise
without trace" as someone once said about David Frost. He didn't rise at
all. He parachuted in. After Hague (bad), IDS (terrible) and Howard
(unelectable and very nasty) a neophyte was worth a try. He brought no
experience, no discernible ideology and he had never had a proper job. (Carlton
was a sinecure). He was young, a good fluent public speaker, academically
sound, well connected, rich, had a nice wife (Tories like that) and marketable.
But it was a veneer. A thin layer with only chipboard beneath. Before he became
leader did he ever write or say anything that anybody noticed? He did not. He
was in the right place at the right time and, until now, the luck he had then
had held. But when they fall they really do fall - especially the
Conservatives. Even the blessed Margaret.

It was the right time to be Leader of the Opposition post
the 2005 General Election. It was clear that Blair would have to hand over to
the much more vulnerable Brown soon. He did. And lucky Dave was in place as the
Brown years became more difficult. Hindsight is already giving Brown credit for
what he did as PM and as the most impressive and effective international crisis
leader in those difficult times. But he was an easy target, could not rely on
personal popularity and by 2010 he should have been slaughtered. But Dave
botched it. The LibDem deal was clever and Cameron's luck kept running because
Nick Clegg quite liked the idea of power. The Dave and Nick show was a fraud on
the British public, but it had legs.

Cameron did nothing in his first term. All was about winning
properly in 2015. The brilliant Lynton Crosby set it all up. Buy off the Tory
Right with the Referendum pledge. Go hard on the LibDems. Get the media to
rubbish Ed Miliband. Let Cameron appear sincere and authoritative. But first
win the Scottish referendum of course. Lucky Dave had the rise of the SNP to
thank for destroying Labour in Scotland. But on the other hand this rise oh so
nearly delivered Scottish independence. Had this happened Cameron would have
gone. But the Scots lost their nerve (just!) and lucky Dave won again. And in
2015 Crosby delivered the perfect outcome for the Tory Right. The Coalition
gone and the Referendum planned to happen.

After the 2015 General Election Dave needed his luck to hold
for one more push. To win the EU Ref should have been easy. The case for
"Remain" was indisputable. But Dave couldn't sell it to his own
troops let alone in the country. The Tory Right plotted and plotted. Labour
imploded. "Leave" had the vile Farage/Banks campaign to appeal to the
fearful and the ignorant. The Tory Right watched it all with glee. Unexpectedly
their tactic of assuming power with Boris as their chosen leader looked achievable.
Dave could be toast! And he was. The Tory Right stumbled and had to accept May
not Boris - but they still won. The most brilliant coup in modern British
politics succeeded and Cameron bit the dust. He's history. And that's the end
of it. A victim in the end of his luck running out.