SchifferLine 1 August 2013

Timely Real Estate News………………………………………………1 August, 2013

***************************************************************************************************************** Who doesn’t like the Hollywood Bowl? I thought so. Our special treat each summer

I’ve been going to the Hollywood Bowl for as long as I can remember. It has always been a great treat for me to attend a concert there. One can never forget the beauty and majesty of the Hollywood Bowl at first sight — a site you never forget — the incredible setting in the Hollywood Hills, and always, magnificent artists who know what a privilege it is to be featured at this legendary Bowl.

The Hollywood Bowl is rich in history — featuring many of the last century’s most famous musical icons. While much has changed over the more than 91 years since it first opened on July 11, 1922, the tradition of presenting the “….world’s greatest musicians and striving for musical excellence” remains the constant goal of this cultural landmark. From Leopold Stokowski, who formed the Hollywood Bowl Symphony Orchestra in 1945, to the 1964 and 1965 performances of The Beatles — and everyone in between, then and since, the Bowl has seen the world’s most famous performers from Ella Fitzgerald, Billie Holiday, Elton John, Al Jolson and Judy Garland….to the world’s most noted conductors such as Bernstein, Walter, Monteux, Karajan, Klemperer as well as Mehta, Giulini, Rattle and Salonen. And the great singers — Placido Domingo, Beverly Sills, Andrea Bocelli, Luciano Pavarotti and Marilyn Horne. And so on and so on.

What is enduring besides the memories, of course, is the Hollywood Bowl. It accommodates 18,000 at a single performance, and it is the largest “amphitheater” in the United States. It has undergone many different modifications from the original, simple outdoor theater in the mid-1920s, and through each reconfiguration, the Bowl leaders have strived for the best acoustics possible. Today it has reached its ultimate; rich acoustics as well as achieving stimulating and dramatic visual excitement from its redesigned shapes and lighting.

The Hollywood Bowl remains one of our treasured assets that keeps on going, year after year….and I can’t wait each Winter to get the Hollywood Bowl calendar for its next season. Another part of the special treat of attending the bowl is dining al fresco in one of the box seats! That is the life! There’s something for every musical taste, every child or parent, for every lover of music, dance, and even theater. There’s still time…..there is the “Sing Along with the Sound of Music”, or you might want to catch “The Vampires” from Beirut. You see? Something for everyone!

***************************************************************************************************************** You don’t have to go the an amusement park to ride a roller coaster…..

Despite what your kids or grand kids are clamoring for, you really don’t have to go to Disneyland, Magic Mountain or Knott’s Berry Farm to ride a roller coaster….all you have to do is read the business section in the Los Angeles Times (or any other medium) and discover the roller coast ride that real estate prices and sales are up one month, down the next. If you try to track what is really going on by reading the major media, you are no doubt feeling like you’re on a thrill ride at a theme park.

A recent headline in the Wall Street Journal said “Housing Sales Slip but Recovery on Track”….and then the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller reports that…”Home Prices Show a 12.2% Annual Increase — the highest gain in more than seven years”. But like all of thesenational stories, they are just that “national” — they might even show that Los Angeles metro area is up, but we tend to hone in on the headlines and not read the “rest of the story”…. the rest of story is what’s important to you, a homeowner in one of the four communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood.

Grabbing national headlines this past week is that sales of previously owned houses unexpectedly dropped in June, hurt by a lack of supply and rising mortgage rates that will slow the rebound in the U.S. real-estate market. According to the National Association of Realtors this past week purchases fell 1.2 percent to a 5.08 million annualized rate. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 5.26 million pace. The pace of the demand was the second strongest since November 2009 following May’s downwardly revised 5.14 million rate. The number of houses for sale at the end of June was the fewest for any June since 2001 as rising prices depleted the number of less expensive houses on the market. The Fed Chairman last week said housing was “….one of the bright spots for growth and added that policy makers will monitor the recent jump in interest rates to ensure it won’t derail the nascent recovery”.

So, there you have the “roller coaster view” of our housing industry as of August 1, 2013. I can’t control what editors decide to feature on their front page, and I am conflicted when I have to shine the spotlight — sometimes in a negative way — on positive real estate news. But every two weeks, it’s my privilege and pleasure to report “the news” on what’s happening that is ‘meaningful to you’, and yes, national stories that report the housing recovery or mortgage rates or general economic news are all important to each of us.

But, please, let’s keep these stories in the media in perspective. The roller coaster you ride may well exist as you’re reading these front-page headlines — they certainly get my attention. But after sifting through the minutia to get the “rest of the story”, we find out that the recovery is being driven by home prices rising because of the lack of quality inventory in just about every US major city. We simply do not have the quantity of quality inventory we had six years ago in 2007.

One reason inventory is so tight is almost a fifth of homeowners across the nation with mortgages remain underwater — not here in our market, but the reduced number of homes that do come on the market increase the competition for qualified buyers. And nationwide, 15% of existing home sales in June according the National Association of Realtors were distressed sales (homes under water). And rising mortgage rates are forcing out many first-time buyers who cannot qualify for a home loan, which has depressed home sales volume — but not necessarily home prices.

As I reported in my last SchifferLine (July 15, 2013), we are seeing a slowing of total sales volumes — but in three out of the four communities I report on, we are seeing median sales prices rise slightly over comparable 2012 periods.

If you are not the roller-coaster type, stay away from national stories on real estate prices and home sales volumes. Most likely, they are not talking about your community or your neighborhood….call me if you want the latest!

Where is Bruce Willis when we need him? If you’re looking to move into the house-flipping business, you won’t be alone. “Flippers Are Back!”…..and they are taking advantage of the still low-priced properties (underwater mostly) and rising home prices. So this is where one gets on another roller coaster — The “Great Flipper Ride” — and buy-fix-up-and-sell game that is increasingly becoming a pop culture event. With Southland home prices rising in a fast-paced recovery, home flippers have returned to the market in force.

In May, investors flipped 1,377 homes in the Southland — a level not seen since the height of the housing boom, wheninvestors turned over 1,394 homes in June 2005, according to real estate research firm Data Quick. The firm defines flipping as buying and reselling a home within six months.

The challenge is always going to be in the flip biz — how long will it last? Usually, flipping works best in a market where there is depressed home prices combined with demand — which is what we have now. Many housing experts and economists say it may simply signal a healthy recovery — a quick bounce back from prices that had dropped sharply. Others see it as a sign that fast-rising markets may again be getting overheated.

According to Data Quick, in Southern California the median price has seen year-over-year increases of more than 20% in every month so far this year, hitting a record 28% in June. So, there you go again….another stat that just leaps off the page, off your computer screen…..the problem is that you cannot translate the 28% increase to your neighborhood. The number of Southern California home flips declined slightly in June, to 1,194. But the figure has hovered above 1,000 for the last 11 consecutive months, compared with fewer than 200 during low points of the recession.

No community that I report on has seen these kinds of increases — even in good times. Yes, there are months when an area will show a double-digit increase in median sales prices — but that is not the rule but the exception.

As Yogi Berra said, “…It ain’t over ’til it’s over!” That saying applies to our Summer Contest as well as to baseball. We announced last month that we are having a Summer Contest for SchifferLine Readers to have the opportunity to win $150 Gift Certificate to the magnificent Hotel Bel Air…..original deadline was August 1, but we didn’t get our “snail mail SchifferLine version” out until late July….so for those of you who did not get the Schiffer Line until now, or who have not entered yet, there is still time. I already have a few correct answers, and all of them will be put in the hat for the drawing which will be held on the 16th of August.

New deadline is Thursday, August 15, 2013. All you have to do is guess where this landmark sculpture is located and its name. It’s on the Westside and it’s a popular location and hints aren’t really needed, are they? Send me your entry with your email address, name, name of sculpture and location. That’s it! Multiple winning entries results in a “blind” drawing for the winner. Deadline is now August 15, 2013 by Midnight. You can email entries to: ceschiffer@aol.com. No phone or snail mail entries PLEASE! Lucky winner will be announced August 16 2013. Treat yourself to some fun at the plush and beautiful Hotel Bel Air.

**************************************************************************************************************** Summer Time…and the drivin’ ain’t easy. Fish are jumpin’ and the gas prices are high….

And you thought it was safe to go back onto the freeway by now…..wrong. I have resisted each SchifferLine issue to write about the 405/Sepulveda Pass project simply because the whole matter leaves a bad taste in my mouth, and in my car, to boot. But after it took me two hours to get from Century City to Bel Air Crest a week or so ago, enough is enough. We’re going through a rough part now that is in my humble opinion somewhat analogous to “it’s always darkest before dawn”. I feel that there will be a confluence of 90-day closures coming our way soon, and I want to remind you to check the twitter and web site — check all sources as to what’s going on. There will be closures of the Wilshire, Skirball, and Mulholland bridges which are scheduled to be completed by end of this year.

Special notices and closure schedules are posted on www.metro.net/project/i405, which will give you everything you want to know (or don’t want to know!). We’re all in this together — and soon it will be over. How soon? 2014 sounds about right.

Boo-hoo. We all love a three-day weekend, and this coming Labor Day, Monday, September 2, will be no different. I like four-day weekends best — like July 4th when the Fourth arrived on a Thursday. But Labor Day is somewhat solemn in that it has always been the ‘last day of Summer” — it’s Back to School Time. And while Back-To-School memories are always pleasant, I don’t want Summer to end, but then with the cooler weather we have had thus far this summer, it really hasn’t been very typical.

So what’s up with Labor Day? Originally started to honor our American workers in 1882, Oregon was the first state to officially make it a state holiday, and then it was followed by a Federal holiday in 1894 after a bloody battle between striking workers of the Railroad Union and the US military (resulting more than a dozen union members being killed). After the bloodbath, President Grover Cleveland made it official as a national holiday, six days after the strike.

Today, the Department of Labor describes Labor Day as an annual celebration of workers and their achievements. But for most of us, I believe, it’s still the “end of Summer”. Oh, well.

************************************************************************************************************** Endangered Animals Around the world

I thought I would do something new and share some information about the endangered animals that exist around the world…. Since I drive a Jaguar, and sometimes think that my car should join that list, I thought I would start with the Jaguar! Often mistaken for the leopard, the jaguar is a beautifully spotted cat with a more massive and powerful build and noticeably larger head. The jaguar is the largest cat in the Americas. Adults can grow up to three feet in height and four feet in body length. The tail can reach up to 30 inches. Adult females can weigh up to 200 lb and males can weigh up to 250 lb. Their fur is tan in color with black rings and dots, and jaguars with completely black coats are not uncommon.

The jaguar is mainly a forest dweller and seems to prefer lowland rain forest for its habitat. It can also thrive in dry woodland and grassland, and it is rarely found in areas above 8000 feet. The jaguar prefers to hunt on the ground and eats deer and small mammals such as peccaries and otters. Also, jaguars are excellent swimmers and can thrive eating fish and other marine reptiles and amphibians. Mating can occur year-round, and the female gives birth to one to four cubs after a gestation period of 95 to 105 days. The young depend on their mother for about two years.

Jaguar populations once spanned from the southern United States down to the tip of South America, but today populations center on the north and central parts of South America. Estimating Jaguar numbers is difficult, due to the inaccessibility of much of the species’ range. Populations have declined mainly due to hunting for its beautiful coat in the 1960s and 1970s. Today, habitat loss due to the clearing of forest is the main threat, and some poaching still occurs… The jaguar is now fully protected throughout most of its range, and hunting is prohibited in several countries.

****************************************************************************************************** Riding the roller coaster of this crazy real estate market is something that I am used to… I have been in the business long enough to have ridden it out and I must say for the most part enjoyed it all. From the beginning of my career, I have been very fortunate to have done well, and I continue to be very busy and just trucking along. As you may know I am also a mentor of new licensees, and the group I am currently working with, which numbers 8 happens to be a truly exceptional one and they too keep me on my toes. I am here to assist you will any and all of your real estate needs, please call me, I am here for you! So, I am very busy with my listings, a very active pool of strong qualified buyers. I am very happy and grateful to be in this position.