I really wanted to post some of my thoughts before now but as my laptop broke recently (sinking my AA draft list ) I've had much less opportunity to do so.

Just for a quick overview again, I think the two biggest strengths of my team are its scoring depth up front and the nice two-way ability my defense has. Guys like Kaleta, Savard, and Backes (not to mention the brief offensive success Smail, Couture, and Popein had too) bring some really nice scoring punch, without compromising a defensive focus, that many other bottom sixes cannot boast. That said I like 70s bottom six as much as anyone else's in this draft so my group certainly has their work cut out for them. And then on the back end, my only one-way players are the defensive-minded Sweeney and Snepsts. I think this luxury really makes my defense a formidable group as there's no definitive or clear weak matchup for opposing clubs to take advantage of, which I'm not sure is the case for my opponent but I'll get into those specifics later. The other main advantage to this makeup is that I shouldn't have any pairings who seem unable to move the puck out of their own zone. Sweeney wasn't offensive but he didn't have a poor first pass, but Snepsts on the other hand is probably one of the worst puck handling defenders in this draft. To help him out I put him with Dmitri Mironov, the more offensive-minded of the brothers, who is probably most apt top to help bail Snepsts out of any of my defenders.

I'm gonna skip our forwards for right now because I want to take a look at our defensive groups. As I said before that I think Regina's group may have some favorable matchups for my team so allow me to explain while I compare our defenders.

Bowman vs. Dewsbury
Contrasting styles but both the clear #1s of their group so we'll look at these two against one another. As much as I love Dewsbury, I mean he has a pretty complete package for the AAA level, Bowman has to get the nod here despite his one-way play. I can't speak to Bowman's physicality but certainly his offensive ability doesn't rival Dewsbury's. Despite this his impressive AST voting record, compared to Dewsbury's lack of a single AST vote, has to put him ahead. Bowman's a defensive guy but he should get the edge here over Dewsbury.

Sweeney vs. Makarov
A battle between contrasting one-way guys that I really must admit puzzles me a bit. I had Makarov in my sights for awhile but never with the intent of giving him top pairing minutes. Makarov had some really nice seasons in various domestic leagues but his lack of an international resume really underwhelms in a top pairing context to me at least. Offensively, Makarov is probably better than every Mallard blueliner but with his defensive game being so suspect you have to wonder how long it'll be before one of his mistakes comes back to bite him against a team with as much scoring punch as my own. To get back to the direct comparison though, Sweeney doesn't a candle to Makarov offensively and vice verse. With Bowman on his side Makarov is insulated very, very well but I think Sweeney is the better player here. He's used to logging a lot of minutes and playing a simple game which is all he'll have to do with Dewsbury on his pairing.

Jimmy Fowler vs Dmitri Mironov
The offensive elements of our second pairs. Fowler's career was quite short but still merits selection here, I think he compares to my own Dutch Gainor in a way despite the differences in their demises. Mironov has more of a two-way presence than what I can find of Fowler but they're both top pairing PP guys. They both also collected some AST votes at their peak. Fowler's short-lived career really limits the comparison here and I sorta see it as a push leaning towards Mironov with the obvious distinction being the difference in longevity.

Evgeny Paladiev vs Harold Snepsts
Our defensive-minded players who happen to be fairly limited by contrasting weaknesses. Paladiev simply wasn't strong enough to handle NHLers during his part in the Summit Series and Snepsts who was a poor skater and fairly limited with the puck on his stick. Despite his limitations, Snepsts still made an all-star game and received some AST votes in one year. Paladiev was a good shot blocker and a stalwart compared to some of his Soviet counterparts but you know coach Somnor is gonna have players like Rota , Sheppard, and Backes grind the hell out of Evgeny as the series progresses. As I said I believe these to be our two most limited players and should your speedier talents exploit Snepsts poor skating things could unfold very poorly for the Mallards. But I believe Snepsts to be the better of the two and think we'd both be safe in assuming Paladiev will wear down and Snepsts will rack up the turnovers as the series progresses.

This second pairing by Regina is the one I was alluding to when I said Quad City should have a favorable matchup. To my understanding, Fowler isn't really noted for his defensive game and you have to wonder if the offensively-inclined three-year pro is really the best choice to pair with Paladiev. If the Mallards can wear him down and only worry about Fowler keeping us from Collins then I think we should be in pretty good shape.

Art Wiebe vs Boris Mironov
Wiebe was defensive-minded guy with some pretty impressive GP numbers. Mironov more defensively focused but certainly still a two-way guy, especially in this comparison. Without a lot to go off of it's nearly impossible to make an objective judgment here. I'd like to brag about Mironov's short-lived status as a top-15 defender as the clear sign he's better here, which would work with pretty much every other bottom pairing defender in this draft I think, but with his longevity Wiebe probably was top-15 in the pre-expansion league at some point, though obviously one is more meaningful. They both also hold a limited amount of AST votes. I think Boris is probably better here, way more dynamic without compromising his defensive game.

Mark Hardy vs Poul Popiel
Our special teams guys who can do a little of everything. Popiel has limited NHL success before becoming one of the most accomplished defenders in the history of the WHA. Hardy was a consistent two-way presence who picked up a single AST one year. Popiel had two WHA 2nd AST finishes to his name. Popiel has the nicer peak but surely it has be downgraded a bit as most of it came in WHA. Hardy on the other hand never reached the same level but did so in the NHL, and for a longer amount of time. I'll leave it up to the voters to decide for themselves, do you want Popiel's peak in the WHA or Hardy's consistency in the NHL?

- Yes, I think Bowman is better, as he's actually my favourite defenseman in this draft. However, Dewsbury is in my top-10 so it's not a huge edge.

- Don Sweeney is actually not used to logging a lot of minutes. In 1995 and 1996 he topped 23 minutes but was a 18-22 minute guy every other year from 1991-2002. In all, he averaged about 19.50 minutes per game in his career. Most often, he was his team's #4 D-man. He's a definite first pairing question mark, like Makarov.

- Re: Fowler and Mironov. Fowler didn't just get "some" AST votes, he finished 6th. That is pretty damn significant at this level. Boris, however, was a top-15 guy for 2-3 years so he does have the three year peak to match Fowler's career and then a number of other decent seasons as a contributing (though inconsistent) NHL defenseman.

- Correction: Paladiev wasn't strong enough to handle superstar NHL players like Phil Esposito. He is just fine playing on a second unit in the AAA draft when the biggest beasts he'll see are the likes of Marco Sturm, Jeff O'Neill, and Mark Osborne, and only on some shifts, and only in some games. Big difference between this and 8 straight games where the worst forward you would oppose would be maybe Bill Goldsworthy.

Paladiev's biggest claim to fame is his one Soviet 1st AST selection, which is a claim to being, at one moment, considered a top-10 defenseman in the world or so. Snepsts made two all-star game, which might be decent indications he was top-15 at those times, except for back then someone from each team had to make the ASG, and in both cases Snepsts was not even the defenseman his own coach was putting on the ice the most (although those were both 23+ minute seasons for him, and he ranked 3rd and 2nd on his own team). It is reasonable to guess he was a top-25 D-man both years. Snepsts was often 1st or 2nd on his (often terrible) teams in ES TOI and I do respect that. This is a comparison of two defensive specialists that is pretty impossible to call.

I will say this. In 1970, Paladiev was voted to the 1st AST in the USSR, ahead of Ragulin, Lutchenko and Kuzkin. Can Snepsts claim to have ever been as highly regarded as players of this caliber?

- About Wiebe. Yes he has some "impressive GP numbers" but it is not the numbers themselves, it is what they mean. I am not sure his single all-star vote three times is all that meaningfull other than demonstrating he was not a mediocre/fringe player. But throughout his career, there were 27-41 NHL defensemen and it has never been suggested that there were many NHL-caliber players elsewhere in these years (europe, alternate NA league) so if Wiebe was around average for an NHL player for these 8 years, we're looking at 8 years of being the 12th-25th-best defenseman in the world (remember, he was never sent to the minors either). Fast forward sixty years and try to compare his legacy to that of Dmitri, the lesser of the Mironov brothers. The talent pool got about 3X bigger just as Mironov hit the NHL scene. Does he have 8 years of being the 36th-75th-best defenseman in the NHL? Or in rough terms, an average #2 or #3 guy? Here's where he ranked on his teams in total ice time:

6, 6, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 5, 7

this is a tough one. Because when he ranked "6, 6, 4" this was in Toronto, when they had a very balanced, well-respected D-corps. (imagine that!) I wouldn't try to say he was only in the 150 range in the NHL because he was 6th on the Leafs. Then in Anaheim when he was "1, 1" they had a brutal D-corps and I would never say it made him a top-26 guy. As a Capital he was 5th twice, then 7th, but again, this was a highly regarded D-corps that pushed him further down than he'd be on an average team.

It's all speculation at this point, but if Mironov was on average defensive units his whole career his ice time ranks above probably would have looked more like: 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5.

So does Mironov have an 8-year track record of being a #2-3 guy? I'd say he has almost exactly that. My biased side would point out that he's short two years; my forgiving side would say those two 4ths are "close enough".

With all the assumptions it took to get to this point the margin of error got multiplied along the way. I had fun. I hope it made some sense.

- Hardy and Popiel. Not an easy one. But at first glance I see a definite edge in Hardy's favour.

Popiel played in the NHL at the age of 25-28. During this time this is what he did:

1969: #4 defenseman of a .513 team, also spent 13 games in the minors
1970: #6 defenseman of a .635 team, also spent 22 games in the minors
1971: #5 defenseman of a .359 team
1972: #7 defenseman of a .308 team, also spent 12 games in the minors

But then, just 3 and 5 years later, at the ages of 31 and 33, Popiel is a 2nd all-star team member in the WHA, making him the 3rd-4th best defenseman in the league. What happened? Did he suddenly get exponentially better? Or did he go to a league with room for a player of his caliber? To be fair, it wasn't just one or the other, but there was a lot of the latter involved. Popiel is exhibit A in why we should question WHA defensemen beyond Stapleton, Tremblay, Shmyr & Ley and a perfect reason to question how close to the NHL the WHA was.

What does being the 3rd-4th best WHA defenseman in 1975 and 1977 mean? Optimistically you might like to say that was potentially 15th-best in the world if you imagine all the players from the NHL, WHA and Europe got put together. Pessimistically, it could be a lot worse than that. This guy couldn't be an important piece of a decent team just a few years before; the best parallel might be a guy like Stephane Robidas, who suddenly became a "bad team #1" for the last three seasons after being a career #4-5 guy. There's a lot of guesswork here.

There is no guesswork involved with Mark Hardy. Just to remind you, he was a #1 defenseman in the 1980s NHL six straight years. No, not for a good team, mind you. But Hardy's NHL coaches had Larry Murphy and Brian Engblom (former 2nd AST member) at their disposal for five of those six years and played Hardy more than both of them. Larry Murphy! In fact, three times Hardy was one of the 13 most-used defensemen in the NHL.

Hardy did not get any all-star votes, nor should he have. No one should have thought he was a top-3 defenseman in the league, either. When you consider the TOI, who he was competing with for that ice time, and the quotes, It's not a stretch to suggest that for these six years Hardy was the 15th-30th best defenseman in the NHL. Popiel does not have a track record like this. If he could have been even a decent NHL player then it wouldn't be such a stretch to be more liberal in assigning value to what those WHA 2nd all-star teams mean.

You say Popiel has the peak but I think Hardy has both the peak and the longevity.

I noticed we have reasonably similar makeups here in terms of era/location in our top-6 so I thought I'd take a look and see if there's any edge there.

Let's get the hard ones out of the way first.

Polupanov vs. Yakushev

Domestic: assist records are spotty so we have to go just by goals. Yakushev scored 162 in 400 games from 1955-1972. Polupanov scored 154 in 293, a much higher average, and from 1964-1973 he faced a much higher average competition level than Yakushev did. Easy edge Polupanov.

International: Yakushev scored 57 points in 57 games from 1959-1967. Polupanov scored 40 in 28 from 1966-1970. this was also done as a "halfback" in Tarasov's system, meaning he was hanging back more, which I think meant his offensive game was potentially stifled.

Considering polupanov produced significantly more per game, and in more competitive times, he was definitely the better producer, offset slightly by the fact that Yakushev showed fairly good longevity.

Then we're looking at three modern players and two pre-expansion versus the opposite. Since it should be apples to apples I will go with the lopsided demographics.

Prospal and Bonk have 11 50+ seasons to Quad City's trio's 10. They have 8 60+ seasons to Quad City's 7. However, they have two 70+ seasons between them; Quad City's guys have five. The only 80+ season among them was Walton's 1974 WHA scoring title that scores a 91.

The pre-expansion guys. Mallen, Brown and Robinson vs. Sheppard and Gainor. Here are their 35%+ seasons:

Regina's guys show up 12 times here, compared to 6 for Quad City. This includes 10 50+ seasons to 5, and 7 60+ seasons to 2. Gainor is about as good as Brown, but that only ties him for the 3rd-strongest among these five.

The best thing I can say here in Quad City's favour after these three comparisons is, Walton and Connelly do have a peak edge over the rest of the modern forwards, and Walton is the most potent of them. Overall though, there is no doubt Regina's forwards in the top 6 have a very noticeable edge in their established offensive output.

We both have offensive types of guys placed with defensive guys on our bluelines. It seems, though, that every time one of mine comes up, his "questionable defense" is an issue, but never for Quad City

I do agree that Makarov and Fowler both have questionable defensive attributes.

Let me remind you, There's nothing to support Dewsbury's defense; he may have been something close to the Souray of his day.

Dmitri Mironov was not a defensive player at all. He was in NHL lineups for his puck moving ability and his shot on the PP. He was often paired with better defensive partners.

Popiel was an offensive specialist. In the NHL he was never better than 4th on his team's depth chart, and was even 5th despite being a 32-point player in 1971. In 1973 in the WHA, he was 2nd among defensemen in scoring, but not an all-star. I checked all the scouting reports and it seems that he was rugged (he bullied the WHA's new swedes) there's nothing in there about his defense, and the 1975 and 1977 guides even list him as a LW - which helps to explain his scoring stats.

Boris was about the same as Dmitri, except for a few years he cut back on the brainfarts and really made something of himself. Generally speaking, he was not a great defender, more of a poor man's Zhitnik.

This is not meant as a criticism of any player, just a reminder that we both have defensemen more valued for their offense than their defense - I have two of them and you have four - two of them paired together, even.

I'm not sure where you encyclopedic knowledge of defenders TOI comes from but I appreciate you setting me straight about Sweeney. Perhaps I just overvalued this or misunderstood it.

Quote:

Paired on defense with Ray Bourque for 757 of his first 815 NHL games. No other Boston defenseman played as many games in a pairing with Bourque.

I'd imagine playing 700 games with a top 10 defender would lend itself to tons of TOI, but as I only have hockey-reference numbers which start when Sweeney was 33 I really don't have all the information here.

I'm there with you on some of the other close calls though. Wiebe vs B. Mironov is an interesting comparison of two really good bottom pairing guys. Same with Fowler and Dmitri, if Fowler wouldn't have been so damn stubborn and moved to New York then he probably wouldn't be available at this point.

I was definitely harsh on Paladiev as well but here's why:

Quote:

Evgeny Paladiev played in 3 games, collecting no points. The following comments, made by Oleg Spassky who was a sportswriter with Smena, sum up Paladiev's series very well:

"Some of our players looked out of place with the Canadian professionals. Paladiev was one of them and that is why he didn't see much action in the series."

The only quote by the defenseman we can find seems to suggest that Paladiev would agree with Spassky's comments:

"I thought I was prepared for the series, but that was a mistake. I had no idea professionals like Peter Mahovlich and Dennis Hull were so strong."

To your point these are players that outclass AAA's, but it wasn't only the premier slot/netfront presence of his time who troubled Paladiev. But like you said in a direct comparison in Snepsts it's not wholly clear either way as he plenty of his own warts.

Also I didn't realize Hardy earned that TOI over such quality players when I made my initial assessment so that's definitely an interesting development. It'd be one thing if he did for a year or two but 5/6 is pretty convincing. Honestly the thing that kills me most with Popiel is the fact that he finished where he did but still didn't make the WHA HOF. You have to wonder if he was a beneficiary of having the family Howe on his teams too. I don't think Popiel is a poor pick or something like that but I don't think he has much a case to be better overall than the Mironovs despite the fact I picked Popiel up first for some reason. I like Poul's offensive game over Boris though, hence the 1st PP pair, so he still provides value to my club.

Actually, now that I look at it, our bottom sixes are made up almost the same too: three pre-expansion guys with three modern players, and two+four. Let's look at the percentage scores they earned and see which bottom-6 has the potential to add more secondary offense:

pre-expansion: Ingarfield & Horeck vs. Popein, Kaleta & Couture.

Interesting one because Horeck, Kaleta and Couture were both 2nd-rate wingers in the war-recovery years, and Popein & Ingarfield both had the opportunity to center Bathgate for a bit. Looking at 30+ years:

No contest here. Ingarfield is clearly the best producer among these four and Couture the worst. Popein and Horeck look almost identical except for the fact that Horeck had one big season and gets the edge. Kaleta was a more productive version of Horeck (toughness is another thing). Regina has the clear #1, 3 and 4 here.

post expansion:

Since I have the available data I am going to use ES scoring instead, since that is where these guys are going to get their scoring chances.

Quad City has a good assortment of even strength scorers down on their lower lines. Andre Savard in particularly surprised me, even though I took this guy in the last B draft. Looks like a slightly more productive DeBlois. Smail looks great but most of this came with playing Hawerchuk. Tough to compare. Backes looks great too, but he's kinda miscast here as a lower line guy when he's typically on scoring lines.

There is an edge in the explosiveness potential of the Quad City post-expansion guys; however, I don't think it is as large as the edge my pre-expansion guys hold. My opponent may disagree - I expect him to! This just basically proves what I've been saying all along - at the MLD level and beyond, don't go trying to split hairs and find major offensive gaps in the bottom six players - they just aren't there.

Kaleta and Couture don't perfectly fit the mold of what you want in a bottom six guy, but then neither does Ingarfield. The only edge I see is that Horeck and McCarty are far and away the toughest players in either bottom six. This line will forecheck like demons.

I'm not sure where you encyclopedic knowledge of defenders TOI comes from but I appreciate you setting me straight about Sweeney. Perhaps I just overvalued this or misunderstood it.

I can send you a file for this, it's no problem. Just PM me. It is of course unofficial but based on situational GF/GA and has been tested against actual results. (I didn't make it, I'm just telling you what I know)

Quote:

I'd imagine playing 700 games with a top 10 defender would lend itself to tons of TOI, but as I only have hockey-reference numbers which start when Sweeney was 33 I really don't have all the information here.

I see what you're saying there, but it's the same thing with any other defenseman who played with Orr, Potvin, Lidstrom, etc. They may play most of the ES minutes with that guy, but never all, because the coach wants that stud out there as much as possible and will find other ways to get them out there. There's also special teams time too.

Honestly the biggest factor in Dmitri vs Boris for me was not wanting to pair Popiel and Dmitri. Plus the bigger playoff resume makes me feel better about leaving him with turnover machine Snepsts who decided to hand Mike Bossy game one of the '82 playoffs. With Dmitri, Snepsts can have a very capable puck mover on his pair to defer to.