Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

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The nine week Fall ratings averages for Revenge and Nashville are virtually identical, as well as the ratings for their last 2 weeks. Then why does the Cancellation Bear judge Revenge is likely to be renewed and Nashville is just a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation?

It's a matter of proximity to the 88 episodes that currently seems to be the minimum level for extra profitable stripped syndication. Syndication is possible with any number of episodes, but fewer than 88-100 means much less revenue per episode.

At the end of this season Revenge will require only one more full season to reach 88 episodes, making it likely that ABC will endure almost any ratings level to get that fourth season. Nashville will require two more seasons. That extra hurdle could separate the two shows' fates.

“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”

Super Fun Night'sposition in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.

However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Can someone explain why abc isn’t airing a new shield tonight? Take advantage of cbs repeating? Shield and ncis don’t share the exact same audience, but it would help both of them to air with less competition wouldn’t it? It just seems silly to me

iSayso

Revenge should be shot, exploded and drowned at sea.

Tony JJ

It would have been so much smarter for ABC to have picked up Devious Maids and put it Sundays at 9 followed by Nashville and kept Revenge Wednesdays at 10. but that is all a moot point right now.

Nashville will get renewed unless at least 2 midseason dramas are 2.0+ to get renewed and all but Resurrection are destined to be DOA. If Betrayal or Lucky 7 would have been a modest hit then it would be in danger, but all their new dramas except SHIELD have fallen below a 1.0.

Revenge and Nashville will both be renewed for sure. ABC had a terrible development year this year. They put all their money into SHIELD and that didn’t work. Betrayal and Lucky 7 look like cheap cable dramas. You need to spread out your money on multiple shows and ads. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

The Goldbergs will most likely be bad as it has potential for growth. Trophy Wife unfortunately probably won’t be returning even though it should because creatively that show is great.

I hope ABC comes out hard next year with dramas though. I hope Shondaland’s “How to Get Away with Murder” gets picked up, but with a name change because it looks very intriguing. ABC needs to go towards water cooler dramas like Desperate Housewives, Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, and Scandal.

I hate saying ABC needs to find a new “Lost”, because they and everyone has tried and failed every year, but they need to find a buzzy action/mystery drama like LOST.

Robert

Goldbergs is best new comedy…but I am worried

Brad

Noel,

That is the most laughable thing I’ve read In a while. Netflix can’t force gigantic networks to do that. LMAO.

V

Nashville will likely get renewed, based on ABC having second thoughts on BOP. It will likely become ABC bench show.

Ankit Dasgupta

Revenge Is a Worldwide Hit ! Nashville Has no Trace whatsoever outside USA . People Wait,Vouch and Stay Hooked To revenge. ABC Will Renew Revenge for a fourth and Final Season With A Definite End !

Brandy

@Sneezy,There’s 35 weeks from Sept -May regular broadcast tv season in a 52 week year and most broadcast shows have 22-24 episodes a season so there will weeks off with preemptions/hiatuses ect.Plus,Sheilds aired at least nine of 22-24 episodes, they have to save some for the rest of the season.

gerry

@ brad

i think you may not fully grasp the power netflix currently has because it is a hefty revenue stream for ‘gigantic’ networks. i don’t know what happens in contract negotiations between network/netflix (neither do you) but it isn’t that farfetched to imagine that netflix would require a proper ending to air episodes. i wouldn’t invest myself in watching something from the start if i knew there wasn’t a proper ending. would you?

Billy Martins

I love revenge & Nashville please do indeed keep both shows on they air for at least one more year they just need to fine audience & a new day & time.

diana

i think that abc will renew revenge because first of all its a bigger hit internationally then nashville and even scandal and second its one of the most downloaded shows on itunes so obviously abc is not going to cancel revenge without a proper ending and plus people dedicated like 3 seasons of their time on that show and would be downright cruel if abc cancels after 3 seasons without an ending.

Rebooted

Sunday
Once Upon A Time
Grey’s Anatomy
NEW DRAMA (family?,female skewing)

Monday
DWTS
Nashville

Tuesday
SHIELD
NEW DRAMA (male skewing)
Castle

Wednesday
The Middle
The Goldbergs
Modern Family
NEW COMEDY (funny family comedy with big names attached)
NEW DRAMA (Crime or crime/thriller with a female skew)

Thursday
Revenge
Scandal
NEW DRAMA (addicting female skewing)

Friday
Last Man Standing
NEW COMEDY (male skewing)
Shark Tank
20/20

THOUGHTS?????

Theoacme

@Rebooted – Greys to Sunday? You’ve gotta be kidding me – top two ABC drama, still, and move it to a lower HUT night? And AFHV is still on the air, if not, I’d rather have Jeffrey Zucker than you…

…Wednesday and Friday are the only two okay nights on your schedule…

…Castle could move to Tuesday, but Nashville WILL NOT get the DWTS hammock on Monday – a new drama will go there instead.

Thursday – Revenge will not get moved to 8 / 7, unless you want it cancelled. And Scandal does very well at 10 / 9, with Grey’s as its leadin…

…and Goldbergs are not a lead pipe cinch for Wednesdays – Suburgatory has not yet aired, and no ratings yet – we’ll see…

8 The Middle
830 new comedy
9 Modern Family
930 new comedy
9 Nashville

Thursday

8 Revenge (new time)
9 Greys Anatomy
10 Scandal

Friday

8 Last Man Standing
830 Suburgatory (new time)
9 Shark Tank
10 20/20

It’s pretty clear Thursday at 8 is a horrible place to premiere a new series. Move Revenge to Thursday @ 8, it couldn’t possibly do any worse than its doing on Sundays already and it’s likely finished after Season 4 anyway. That frees up 2 slots on Sunday, Castle moves to Sunday to premiere a new series on a night abc hasn’t used for a new show in quite some time, Monday.

Joseph

I think it’s quite stupid to compare revenge and nashville when you see the slots they are in and the competition that they face. Also, Revenge is probably making a lot more money for abc than nashville when you take into account it’s international success- it is very successful in uk, Ireland, Australia etc and Nashville isn’t really that successful outside of the USA. I think it may be better to compare the two when revenge is on at 10pm in March and then we can compare it with nashville as it won’t face so much competition- especially from the countless other female skewing shows, such as real housewives, kardashians, Long Island medium etc that are all on cable on sunday nights

Ultima

@gerryit isn’t that farfetched to imagine that netflix would require a proper ending to air episodes

Except that “proper ending” is a completely arbitrary term and that Netflix airs episodes of series that are still in production.

i think you may not fully grasp the power netflix currently has because it is a hefty revenue stream for ‘gigantic’ networks

Not compared to first run advertising revenue (or licensing fees), broadcast syndication and cable syndication.

8 Once Upon A Time(new time)
9 Modern Family
930 The Goldbergs
9 Revenge(new time)

Thursday

8 Shark Tank
9 Greys Anatomy
10 Scandal

Friday

8 Last Man Standing
830 Suburgatory
9 / / ?
10 20/20

Ultima

According to Futon Critic, ABC has scheduled the spring premiere of Once Upon a Time in Wonderland for 6 March (same timeslot).

Robin

As long as they don’t touch Scandal and Castle I’m happy!

Rebooted

@Theoacme

Hammock? DWTS is not the ‘hammock’ it used to be. Sure, maybe they get the viewers, but the demo is not a ‘hammock’ by any means. If you want to give new shows a chance it may require sacrificing veterans (Greys to Sunday). Also Greys started on Sunday so maybe it could end on Sunday too (in a few seasons). Your right about the Goldbergs. Revenge will probably be cancelled anyway, so why not throw it in the death slot. Hey, it might even improve ratings being with Scandal! Scandal would survive its move easily. Tuesdays will import something and I assume it will be Castle. Thanks for the thoughts, though!!!