I have been “mistaken,” “misled,” “misrepresented,” and been “unaccountably in error,”
and am sorry if you have been offended

Monday, November 26, 2012

The LDP Wins a Majority in the House of Representatives? Other Stuff Too

I’m sure that anyone who comes here also follows
the Shisaku blog, so you’ve probably seen
this already.
Please do so if you haven’t before you continue.

Okay? Now then:

If the media polls are to be believed, the
LDP should be coasting to victory with one-third to two-fifths of the popular
vote producing what is likely to be a massive LDP-Komeito victory as they sweep
through the House of Representatives single member districts, possibly even an
LDP simple majority, while the DPJ comes in third behind Ishihara and Hashimoto’s
JRP. The numbers have not moved meaningfully since the polls from the week
before, which suggests that the commotion around the meeting of rather
different minds regarding nuclear power (!), TPP(!), and the consumption tax
hike(!) has done little to diminish the JRP allure (but may have halted its
momentum). Barring an unforeseen game-changer—North Korea delivering the rest
of the abductees, a Shinzo Abe (but not Hashimoto) sex scandal are possible,
but not plausible, candidates—public perception of the main players appears to
be coagulating into a not-too-enthusiastic vote for both Abe and the LDP, which
will produce disproportionately large electoral returns for it because of the
electoral system. And Japan will wind up with a government that will be hard
put to claim a popular mandate, much less a working majority in the House of Counselors.

And Governor Kada is making an announcement
tomorrow, not today. In the meantime, I’ve looked around at media reports some,
and it appears that she is serious about jumpstarting a new party. But my money
is still on Kawamura’s attempt at bandwaggonning to end in failure. I have nothing
against Kawamura personally, who seems a forgiving, inclusive, bonobo type of
human being. And I like that. And Kada is not your typical academic. She has a
political family background that indicates that she will not shy away from an
alliance with Kawamura or Ozawa if she believed that it would further her
political aims. But unless I’m missing something, that same expertise should be
telling her not to hitch her cart to a couple of old nags headed for the…

BTW here’s one thing going on that I don’t
understand. Negotiations for the Noda-Abe, head-to-head debate—the other
opposition parties are complaining because the pair have a mutual interest in keeping
the Ishihara-Hashimoto coalition out of the spotlight—are stalling because they
cannot come to terms with the platform for the debate. Not for long, most
likely, unless Noda and the DPJ forget to remember that beggars can’t be
choosers.

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About Me

After graduation, Jun Okumura promptly entered what is now the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and stayed in in its ecosystem most of his “adult” life. Along the way, he had pleasant stops in an assortment of Japanese quangos (Japangos?), overseas assignments and government agencies. After thirty years, though, it dawned on him that he had no aptitude whatsoever for administration and/or management. Armed with this epiphany, he went to the authorities and arranged an amicable separation; to come out, as it were. He is completely on his own IYKWIAS, but he and the METI folks remain “good friends.” He currently holds the titles of “visiting researcher” at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs (no, that MIGA) and counselor at a risk analysis firm that dares not speak its name. This gives him plenty of time to blog or make money on his own. His bank account says that he does too much of the first, and insists that he do more of what he calls “intellectual odd jobs”. He wants to be paid to write fulltime, or better, talk—where the easy money is—but that distinction has largely escaped him. He really should not be referring to himself in the third person; he is not that famous.