Month: October 2012

The good news for the Cowboys is that they rank 8th in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The biggest issue, by far, has been turnover differential so far for them, as they have a turnover differential of -11, 2nd worst in the NFL. The good news is that turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent, as seen here. Tony Romo, specifically, has an interception rate of 4.6%. Despite his reputation as a turnover machine, his interception rate was only 2.8% coming into the season. In fact, 13 is the most he’s had in a season since 2008, and it’s been 7 games. That will regress to the mean going forward. I’m actually impressed they were able to keep it so close with the Giants despite losing the turnover battle by 4. Don’t count them out yet.

Robert Griffin had the worst game of his career, going 16 of 34 for 177 yards and a touchdown, last week against the Steelers, but you can’t really blame him. For one, he endured 7 drops. Two, Steelers’ defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a ridiculous 14-1 as Steelers’ defensive coordinator against rookies. Even with a banged up defensive squad, he was able to scheme against Griffin and hold him in check. Griffin should bounce back next week, but that 15 point loss was by far their biggest of the season and it just proves how dependant they are on Griffin, still a rookie quarterback, especially with all of their injuries.

Studs

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 4 attempts, 1 penalty

RG Chris Chester: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

A preseason underrated team of mine, the Buccaneers are now 3-4 with a +31 points differential and they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown all year. Josh Freeman is 82 of 143 (57.3%) for 1309 yards (9.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games. He’s a natural deep ball throw who had been afraid to throw deep last season, throwing longer than 20 yards through the air on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least in the league, despite being accurate of 52.8% of them, 3rd best in the NFL. This year, thanks to new found chemistry with free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson, he is going deep 6th most in the league, 13.5% and, more importantly, has the 3rd highest accuracy percentage, 56.7%, completing 16 of 30 for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 drop. I believe this is here to stay. They’re a sleeper team.

Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could happen to this offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s also given 2nd round rookie Ryan Broyles more playing time too. It’s no coincidence that their offense looked by far the best it has all season, and against a tough Seattle defense nonetheless, in their first game without Burleson, even with Calvin Johnson playing at less than 100%.

They already rank 8th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential. If they can get Matt Stafford going, they’re not going to be fun to play. I don’t like their playoff chances at 3-4, but the NFC isn’t looking as loaded as it once did after going 1-3 against the AFC last week after starting 19-9 (the only win was Packers over Jaguars in a game that was closer than it should have been). They’re not out of it quite yet.

I have a lot to write about the Patriots in their section, so I’m going to use this section to talk about the NFL in London. I just don’t think it’s a very good idea. It’s fine having one or two games per year there, but every time we have one, there’s talk about moving a team there and it would make no sense geographically. It’s just too rigorous for the players to travel all the way there and play jet lagged and vice versa for the London team to travel back to the states to play any road games. Plus, with this new stupid Thursday Night schedule, if we had a team in London that teams we’d have, at least once per year, a jet lagged team playing on short rest. Roger Goodell might not see a problem with that, but I do.

I guess beating the Broncos is a lot harder than beating the Chargers and Buccaneers for a still overrated Saints team (heavy public action on New Orleans +6 last week). The rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential and 27th in rate of sustaining drives differential, mostly because of a defense that allows the most yards per play in the league and the 2nd highest rate of sustaining drives in the league. This week, they host Philadelphia in a game that’s going to tell us a lot about both teams as they are both at a crossroads in their respective seasons.

I wish Dennis Green was still the Cardinals’ coach. Then he could shout “we are who they thought we were!” I never believed in them. They’ve never been ranked higher than 15th in these Power Rankings, even when they were 4-0. This is what I said about the Cardinals after their 3-0 start. “Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction.” They haven’t covered since and have lost 4 straight.

Now with Kolb out, John Skelton is actually a downgrade, believe it or not, despite their records last season. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. This year, Skelton is completing 57.9% of his passes for 5.9 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while Kolb is completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Until Kolb returns, this team is really going to struggle. Meanwhile, the offensive line is one of the worst I’ve ever seen and it might be the worst ever. They’re on pace to allow 89 sacks, which would shatter the NFL record of 76 set by the Texans in 2002.

Studs

C Lyle Sendlein: Did not allow a pressure on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts