The variations of MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are predictable based on solar wind measurements. Using a model based on the standard radial diffusion equation applied for the years 1995-1999, a prediction efficiency of 64.4% and a linear correlation of 0.81 were achieved for the logarithm of average daily flux of 0.7-1.8 MeV electrons. The same model with different parameters gave a prediction efficiency of 70.2% and 72.4% and a linear correlation of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively… CONTINUE READING