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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999
CINDY IS MOVING 020/10 AND IS ALREADY WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STEERING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT AND
FUTURE PATTERN FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT AT
DIFFERENT SPEEDS. CINDY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE CLOUD PATTERN
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE EYE IS NOT LONGER DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO BANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KNOTS. CINDY SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER CALLER WATERS...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 33.5N 58.0W 95 KTS
12HR VT 30/0000Z 35.0N 57.3W 90 KTS
24HR VT 30/1200Z 37.8N 53.8W 80 KTS
36HR VT 31/0000Z 40.0N 50.0W 70 KTS
48HR VT 31/1200Z 42.5N 45.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 01/1200Z 47.5N 33.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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