PC Outlook Remains Subdued Despite Some Gains In Mature Markets, According to IDC

Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall -6.0% in 2014, a slight
adjustment from the previous forecast of -6.1%, according to the
International Data Corporation (IDC)
Worldwide
Quarterly PC Tracker. Mature regions benefitted primarily from a
recovery surge in Western Europe while other mature regions performed
modestly above expectations in the first quarter of 2014 (1Q14).
Emerging regions continued to see weak demand and difficult conditions,
although the economic environment in Latin America had the largest
impact. The impact to emerging regions – a cornerstone of long-term
market stability – outweighed the short-term boost seen in mature
regions. As a result, longer-term growth was lowered slightly (by less
than a percent for 2015-2017), with 2015 at -1.6% year on year with
subsequent years still between 0 and -1% growth.

Positive factors for the PC market include slowing tablet demand and
steadying economic indicators that are contributing to more stable PC
shipments in mature markets. The Windows XP replacement activity that
boosted shipments in the past several quarters is also expected to
remain a positive factor for a few more quarters. This relative
improvement in the outlook will enable the United States to further its
lead in PC shipments over China and keep the mantle as the biggest PC
market globally through 2017.

Despite the pockets of opportunity, weakening growth in emerging regions
and continuing pressure from other devices – primarily smartphones and
tablets – continue to push down the long-term outlook. Consumer interest
in PCs remains constrained and price-sensitive, as evidenced by overall
market declines and still modest ultraslim notebook results, even as
Chromebook vendors and channels expand and boost volume in this low-end
segment. The competitive environment is also evidenced in the sale of
Sony's PC division, and Samsung refocusing its PC operations. IDC
expects further market restructuring and consolidation going forward as
vendors review limited PC growth and look at broader mobility and
computing trends.

"PC shipments are currently benefitting from a lull in tablet demand due
to rising tablet penetration in mature regions and competitive pressure
on smaller tablets from large-size smartphones (sometimes referred to as
Phablets)," said Loren
Loverde, Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers. "However, the
transition toward mobile and cloud-based computing is unstoppable. PCs
continue a slow transition toward touch and slim designs, even as tablet
volume is expected to pass total PC volume in the fourth quarter of 2014
and on an annual basis in 2016. To return to growth, the PC industry is
going to need to accelerate the shift to lower-cost, thin, and
touch-based designs, despite the challenges it has faced with these
designs in the past."

"2014 represents an important shift for the PC market in emerging
regions," said Jay
Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide PC Trackers. "Shipments in
these parts of the world are expected to contract in double digits
(nearly 20 million units fewer) compared to 2013. Political and economic
instability in many of these markets are key factors affecting
short-term intake, but a fundamental shift toward computing across the
device spectrum represents a broader transition. IDC still expects
refresh projects and continued growth in underserved areas to bring
modest growth in emerging markets by 2016, but the overall volume has
been further curtailed to less than 165 million units per year through
the forecast horizon."

PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2013-2018 (Shipments
in millions)

Region

Product Category

2013

2014*

2018*

Emerging Markets

Desktop PC

85.7

79.2

76.0

Emerging Markets

Portable PC

96.2

83.8

87.9

Emerging Markets

Total PC

181.9

163.0

164.0

Mature Markets

Desktop PC

51.1

50.5

43.0

Mature Markets

Portable PC

82.2

82.8

80.4

Mature Markets

Total PC

133.2

133.3

123.4

Worldwide

Desktop PC

136.7

129.7

119.0

Worldwide

Portable PC

178.4

166.6

168.3

Worldwide

Total PC

315.1

296.3

287.3

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, May 2014

* Forecast data

See Table and Taxonomy Notes below.

In addition to the table above, an interactive graphic illustrating
worldwide desktop and portable PC shipments and total PC market growth
for 2012-2015 is available here.
Instructions on how to embed this graphic into online news articles and
social media can be found by viewing this
press release on IDC.com.

Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other
Portable PCs which possess non-detachable keyboards, and do not include
handhelds or Tablets such as the Apple iPad, Microsoft Surface Pro or
Android Tablets

IDC's Worldwide
Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in more than 80
countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed,
sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and
forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.
For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact
Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or [email protected].

About IDC Trackers

IDC
Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor
share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than
100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research
processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and
monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly
excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app
allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker
products on their iPhone
and iPad.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of
market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information
technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC
helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment
community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and
business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global,
regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities
and trends in over 110 countries. In 2014, IDC celebrates its 50th
anniversary of providing strategic insights to help clients achieve
their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG,
the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You
can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks
of their respective holders.

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