Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.

Saturday, May 10, 2014

May 12, 2014 weekly outlook

Sell in May.... Looks like we should set a nice bottom around the end of May. In the meantime moves down of around 2% per week the next 2 weeks should not surprise giving us a low in the area of the early Feb low (1800-1815 - maybe a lower low).

The envelopes are still on a "Sell" signal.

GL traders. This past week I traded out of part of my RWM and bought those shares back at the close on Friday. Not a huge profit - about 1.7% on shares traded. We'll see how well the new purchases do.

5 comments:

Hmm..in theory..there is viable downside to 1800/1790, but really, where is the downside power going to come from the immediate term?

The only hope of the equity bears is Ukraine, but really, we've seen this kind of thing a dozen times in the past few years, and it ALWAYS ends the same for bears...a gap right above resistance..shortly after everyone is getting overly bearish.-

R2K/Nasdaq daily charts look ready to breakout to the upside...a bounce of 3-5% or so.

I actually be kinda curious to your cyclical waves overlaid onto the R2K/Nasdaq, not least since now we have a very split market.-

Cycle Dawg

Followers

Old as dirt

I have long been a proponent of TA. I have looked at a lot of different methods. In the 70s I maintained about 50 P&F charts manually (pre Web). Some TA approaches work better than others.
In the end I decided that cycles were as good as any, much simplier than most to use and required less time to do.
You may have your own TA and I encourage you to use it and only use my post/opinions as a check on your TA.