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Donald Clarke

Whingeing about cinema and real life since 2009

The Baftas and a potential wager…

Argo continued its run. Hathaway and Day Lewis remain unbeatable. What else is there to say? It is, perhaps, slightly insulting to view the British Academy’s awards as nothing more than a vast tipster’s guide to the Oscars. When, however, …

Donald Clarke

Donald

Mon, Feb 11, 2013, 11:55

Argo continued its run. Hathaway and Day Lewis remain unbeatable. What else is there to say? It is, perhaps, slightly insulting to view the British Academy’s awards as nothing more than a vast tipster’s guide to the Oscars. When, however, the British organisation moved the event back so that it preceded those awards they more or less invited such a downgrading. Of course, the two organisations share many voters. Some estimates put the crossover at about 10 percent of the Academy’s electorate. So, this does count as a fairly effective opinion poll. Obviously, there are biases. The Brits, understandably enough, favour their own. They are, perhaps, a little (only a little, mind) more open to foreign language pictures.

With that in mind, we should consider Emmanuelle Riva‘s victory for best actress. It’s not a massive game changer, but it is significant. To that point, Jennifer Lawrence (who travelled to London, poor girl, while Riva stayed at home) had taken just about every award going. The Bafta win confirms that the older actor has probably edged ahead of Jesica Chastain to secure the second-favourite spot for the Oscars. “A major high-street bookmaker” had, at time of writing, not quite figured that out. This alliterative firm is currently offering Riva at 4/1. Not bad. It is a mere five-horse race, mind. But Naomi Watts and Quvenzhané Wallis are completely out of it. The other tasty bet available is Alan Arkin for best supporting actor. He is the outsider. But 25/1? Anybody could win that race. It’s worth a double with Riva. Only a few euro, though. It probably won’t happen.