October 22, 2012

The latest findings mark the first time Thompson’s been in the lead in this race since mid-August just after he won a hotly contested state GOP primary. He was consistently ahead in surveys prior to that time back to October of last year. Since August, however, Baldwin’s support has ranged from 49% to 51%, while Thompson’s has fallen in the 46% to 47% range.

An immense amount of money was dumped into attack ads against Thompson, and it seems he's finally digging out from under that. I think he assumed he could coast to victory on his old popularity and Baldwin's extreme liberalism. (She's been rated the most liberal member of the House of Representatives.) Turns out he actually needed to fight for the position. It was stupid to assume otherwise, and the Wisconsin voters who chose him in the primary (over the attractive newcomer Eric Hovde) are really the ones who made the assumption that good old Tommy would win easily. Now, we Wisconsinites are stuck with a choice between the 70-year-old former governor and the most liberal member of the House of Representatives. I'd like to say we deserve better, but we don't.

I voted for Hovde, but it's been widely reported that Tommy's campaign was out of cash because it had to fight off Hovde strong challenge. So I think "coasting" is not at all accurate. Tommy has been campaigning hard, and is running lots of ads now. He'll be fine.

@Professor, are you suggesting that Hovde would not have been hit at least as hard with attack ads? I suspect that one reason Thompson has been able to climb out from under Baldwin's attack ads is that everybody in Wisconsin knows him. Hovde would not have had that to fall back on.

Yes, the two-party system has problems -- may we stipulate that? Trouble is, looking around the globe, it seems to work better than any of the alternatives.

"Just curious, but why do you keep calling Eric Hovde "attractive"? Are you talking about his looks or his political stances? You have used that term before, and I haven't been sure what you meant."

Look at the candidates. It's obvious that physical attractiveness is part of what is going on. What's the good of denying it? Look at the 2 presidential candidates. Look at the candidates Romney bested. It's so obvious that people are voting in part for aesthetics. We are human.

I seriously think that Tammy's advantage early on came from ordinary people reacting to photographs of the 2 candidates (including the especially ugly photos of Tommy selected for the attack ads against him).

"@Professor, are you suggesting that Hovde would not have been hit at least as hard with attack ads? I suspect that one reason Thompson has been able to climb out from under Baldwin's attack ads is that everybody in Wisconsin knows him."

Of course, Hovde would have been attacked, and he didn't have a record of fighting off attacks. How would he have done? We don't know. But he would have known he had to fight from day 1, and his supporters would have been fighting for him. The Tommy thing was about complacency and belief in coasting. That really annoys me.

I attended the Tea Party rally here in Madison in 2010 when Tommy announced that he would not challenge Russ Feingold. Tommy said he was too old and we needed to move on to the next generation of leaders. Feingold fought to stay in the Senate and newcomer Ron Johnson -- an untested candidate -- beat him.

Then, 2 years later, Tommy was not too old, because there was no incumbent who had to be fought. He steps up and volunteers, at the age of 70, this man who 2 years earlier had declined to fight because he was too old.

Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got.

If nothing else, Hovde would have had the money (his own) to spend rebutting the attacks, and making his own. If Thompson wins, it will be because voters chose him by habit. Not a good way to choose candidates, although in this case it works.

Madison Man--sad but true--our political system for the most parts presents us with nothing but bad choices (although I think we have a clear choice in the presidential race) In Wisconsin's case it look like craptasit as far as the eye can see.

Of course, Hovde would have been attacked, and he didn't have a record of fighting off attacks. How would he have done? We don't know. But he would have known he had to fight from day 1, and his supporters would have been fighting for him. The Tommy thing was about complacency and belief in coasting. That really annoys me.

I attended the Tea Party rally here in Madison in 2010 when Tommy announced that he would not challenge Russ Feingold. Tommy said he was too old and we needed to move on to the next generation of leaders. Feingold fought to stay in the Senate and newcomer Ron Johnson -- an untested candidate -- beat him.

Then, 2 years later, Tommy was not too old, because there was no incumbent who had to be fought. He steps up and volunteers, at the age of 70, this man who 2 years earlier had declined to fight because he was too old.

Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got."

Again you make this assertion of "complacency"...other than your words do you have anything to back it up?

Why should AA feel "shortchanged" by the choices in the general election for Senator in WI?

Her guy didn't win the primary. Obviously, if he had been the right candidate for a majority of WI Republicans, he would have won. There has been no allegation that Thompson stole the nomination, has there?

No, he won. Hovde can try again in a later election. Maybe he'll do better then.

Until that hypothetical future Hovde election, your choices are Baldwin or Thompson. Or leaving that line blank.

Bitching that your choices have been "shortchanged" when your guy lost fair and square is lame.

Jim Cullinan, vice president of corporate communications for Clear Channel Outdoor, said in a statement: "We reviewed the situation, and in light of the fact that these billboards violate our policy of not accepting anonymous political ads, we asked the client how they would prefer to work with us to bring the boards into conformance with our policy."The client thought the best solution was to take the boards down, so we are in the process of removing them."

Here was Cullinan's take on that from last week, garage: "The advertiser put into their contract to remain anonymous. It is our policy to require any advertiser - including political advertisers -- to have a disclaimer which identifies themselves on the creative. This was not done on this ad which was a mistake, but we can't change the contract now and the ads will remain up.

So again, Clear Channel was bullied, probably by the FCC which controls its licencing, to remove the factual signs. You must be proud to support such anti-free speech government intervention in support of criminal activity?

AA....totally agree with you. It is unfortunate that this is our choice. As much as I personally like Tommy, he looks old and tired. Its interesting that Baldwin doesn't look like a left wing Madison militant lesbian. I think that has helped her gain support with people who don't much about her voting record.

Now Madison-folk:Don't be a pussy and vote for the pussy just because Tom has some wrinkles and you think the pussy is more pretty.

Please. (I can just see it now: "If we can't have Eric, we're crossing party lines." Bigger than Wisconsin even, think about your country and find someplace else to meet your "pretty people" needs?? Thanks very much.)

"The Tommy thing was about complacency and belief in coasting. That really annoys me....Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got.

Again you make this assertion of "complacency"...other than your words do you have anything to back it up?"

Shhhh... she's on a role. Soon enough, she'll figure out what she wanted *whiiiine* doesn't matter much. She got outvoted, plain and simple.

To ann, a man like Tommy is physically a coot. So she's for the prettier young guy. Like Obama over McCain.

Smart enough not to beg Tommy to woo her vote though, if ann starts threatening to "show us" by tossing her ballot to the prettier pussy.

"Look at the candidates. It's obvious that physical attractiveness is part of what is going on. What's the good of denying it? Look at the 2 presidential candidates. Look at the candidates Romney bested. It's so obvious that people are voting in part for aesthetics. We are human."

Oh dear god are you shallow.So you vote emotionally, and on attractiveness...

Repeat after me:I speak for myself. I speak for myself. I speak for myself.

When you try to drag women, Wisconsinites, lawyers into your "we", shout it out loud: "I speak for myself."

Too much time in the classroom: you think your opinions matter most. Think Pacific Northwest. Yes you can. Make that move. (and take Hoosier hubby with ya?)

This is where O is really hurting the Dems. He has hoovered all of the contributions in the past quarter and has not shared with the DNC. The DNC had only $4.6 mm cash on hand with $5.5 mm in payables to vendors at the end of last month.

Contrast that with the RNC which had $83 million cash on hand. Given the importance of this race, my guess is that you will see the RNC go big, where the DNC is totally handicapped.