A weakened Tropical Storm Karen has stalled about 130 miles south-southwest of Morgan City but is likely to start moving over portions of southeast Louisiana overnight, the National Hurricane Center forecast Saturday at 1 p.m. Karen's center was at 27.9 degrees north, 91.8 degrees west, with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph and minimum central air pressure of about 29-3/4 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend as far from the center as 115 miles.

The Hurricane Center made no changes from its earlier advisories: A tropical storm warning is in place for the northern Gulf Coast from Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River, with a less worrisome tropical storm watch for the entire New Orleans area.

Karen is expected to move north Saturday afternoon and east-northeast at night, then accelerate east-northeast Sunday night and Monday, the Hurricane Center said. Its center is likely to cross overland along the Mississippi-Alabama cost Sunday evening as it weakens to a tropical depression.

Storm surge and tidal conditions "will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by the rising waters," the Hurricane Center said. From Terrebonne Bay to Cedar Key Fla., tides are likely to be one to three feet above normal.

The rain forecast was one to three inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast and southeast United States through Monday evening, mainly near and east of Karen's center path. Isolated rain of six inches was said to be possible.