Sign up today for Post Pro Picks, The Post's free, weekly NFL pick 'em game, where you can win great prizes, form groups to play against your friends, see how you fare against our experts or just play for fun. Register at http://washingtonpost.com/pro-picks

The Nationals' free agency pitch

By
Ryan Korby

Free agency season has begun for Major League Baseball and Washington won’t be spending its time on the back-burner. The Nationals are part of many of the hot stove stories this offseason. The Nats have been mentioned as players in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but if you figure a team like the Yankees who wants to win now and has a much bigger payroll will eventually win that battle, then you turn your attention to some of the other names being whispered in the same breath as the Nationals.

One of the more interesting rumors has the Nats looking at former Cy Young award winner Brandon Webb. The rumor makes sense, if for nothing else, it matches the Nationals' modus operandi of going after “value” players, guys they can sign on the cheap who have the chance to pay off big. Unfortunately, in the past the Nats haven’t had such bets pan out, the most recent being the signing of Chien-Ming Wang, who if you don’t remember being a Nat that’s because he never pitched in a Major League game this season. Unlike the fans that dislike the Nats’ bargain bin shopping habits, I think it’s a savvy way to try to gather pieces for a winning team. I'd rather see the Nats sign a player like Webb to an inexpensive contract and watch him not play well over than than watch them sign a player like Carlos Beltran to a hefty contract (like the Mets did) that doesn’t work out. There’s so much randomness in free agency that making low risk signings is better than hamstringing your team with expensive and risky signings.

The potential is there for Webb to get back to his dominate ways. Baseball research guru Bill James is projecting Webb to throw 179 innings with an ERA of 3.42. Only Livan Hernandez threw more innings for the Nats last season and no starter not named Stephen Strasburg had a lower ERA. While those predictions may be a little optimistic for a player coming off shoulder surgery, even 150 innings and a sub-4 ERA would bring much needed stability to a Nationals pitching staff that hasn’t known the meaning of the word.

The other starting pitcher who may see Washington as a potential landing spot is a player already familiar with the franchise. Javier Vazquez spent his first six seasons with the Expos. Ever since he left the organization, he’s been a Jekyll and Hyde type of pitcher. The past two seasons are perfect examples of the anybody’s-guess-type of production you can get from Vazquez. With the Braves in 2009, he struck out almost 10 batters per nine innings and had an ERA of 2.87. His fielding independent statistics support that it was Vazquez who was dominant and not that he was the beneficiary of some divine intervention. Then in 2010, he was a completely different pitcher. In his second stint with the Yankees (who are only familiar with the unproductive Vazquez), he had an ERA of 5.32 and struck out three fewer batters per nine innings. That’s the type of pitcher you proceed with caution with. It’s not even that he only thrives in the National League, he has a subpar stat line from 2005 with the Diamondbacks to prove that.

Both Webb and Vazquez have trophy cases full of honors, but at this point in both players’ careers, they can be seen as good free agent signings only if the Nationals get them at the right (read: low) price.

It seems strange to make their bullpen a priority since it was so strong last season, but that is what I believe the Nationals need to do. There is a glut of quality bullpen arms on the market, which will help keep their price down and the Nats bullpen isn’t as stable as it looks.

Right now going into the season the bullpen looks good with Drew Storen, Sean Burnett, Tyler Clippard, Joel Peralta, Doug Slaten, and Collin Balester lined up. It would appear that only one more job would be up for the taking, but in reality Peralta, Slaten and Balester could all struggle given their checkered track record. And Clippard is coming off a 90+ inning season (very high for a reliever). While I don’t think a doom and gloom situation will arise, it wouldn’t be surprising to see at least one of these relievers have their performance drop due to injury or ineffectiveness. Also, I would like to see the Nationals make a bold move and trade Sean Burnett this offseason, creating a further ‘hole’.

Sure, get all the pitching you can, all the time. Also, why not play Mike Morse
at first base? Hit hit for average and power and he is a former All-American shortstop in his younger days. Nats would need to get TWO free agent outfielders, as well as the pitching. Willingham is getting close to his "use by" date (usually July 31st), so why not trade him now and actually get something for him?
Pudge, too.

We encourage users to analyze, comment on and even challenge washingtonpost.com's articles, blogs, reviews and multimedia features.

User reviews and comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions.