Objective Comments and Analysis - All Science, No Politics
Contributions by Richard James and Rick Thoman

Monday, September 22, 2014

Fairbanks First Snow Stats

The forecast for Fairbanks on Tuesday includes a mention of snow for higher elevations. Here is the text-based forecast issued at 4:00 p.m. AKDT for Zone 222:

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MIXED WITH SNOW ABOVE

1500 FEET. UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S. LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE

EVENING...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO SNOW

ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS TO 10 MPH.

There are several places around Fairbanks that are greater than 1,500' above sea level. The only one with at least 15 years of snowfall data is Keystone Ridge. If they receive the forecasted 1" of snow, it would be 2 days earlier than the median date of September 25th. All other stations have a median first snow date between September 30th and October 4th. As the map in Figure 1 indicates, the first snow has been as late as the end of October or even early November!

Figure 1. Dates of first snowfalls for stations around Fairbanks with at least 15 years of complete snowfall data since 1950.