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A staffing crisis crippling NHS finances may take years to resolve, the National Audit Office has warned - with officials accused of making “pie in the sky” assumptions about how savings can be made.

Almost every NHS authority drawing up plans for cuts to services already has dangerously high levels of bed occupancy, new research suggests.

Health services have been ordered to make sweeping changes to make £22bn in savings, while meeting unprecedented demand from an ageing population.

But the new NAO report says hospitals spent £3.7 billion on agency staff in the last financial year, contributing to a £2.45 billion shortfall, a trend NAO branded “unsustainable”.

The report suggests DoH plans to save £22bn by “moderating the growth in demand” from patients and capping pay may be unrealistic and have not been properly tested.

'We’ve gone way too far already in terms of bed cuts, which put hospitals under intense pressure - going further will directly impact on patient care and death rates'Dr Taj Hassan, Royal College of Emergency Medicine

Committee chairman Meg Hiller said the Government and NHS were relying on “pie in the sky assumptions” about how the gap could be closed.

It follows warnings that NHS trusts are spending 16 per cent more than was planned on agency staff.

Health services have been ordered to make draw up 44 “sustainability and transformation plans” (STPs) to show how they will respond to financial pressures and growing demand.

Today a new report by campaign group 38 Degrees says that 98 per cent of areas have occupancy levels so high they are already putting patients at risk of infection and overcrowding.

It follows warnings that England has fewer beds for its population than almost any country in Europe, following the loss of more than one quarter of beds in a decade.

Experts recommend that occupancy levels should remain below 85 per cent, in order to reduce the risk of infection and allow for surges in admissions.

Health service leaders have been told to draw up 44 "sustainability and transformation plans" in the face of rising pressures Credit:
PA

But the research shows most hospitals are now far more crowded, with some running as high as 95 per cent.

It comes amid record levels of bedblocking and rising emergency admissions, with less than 91 per cent of patients seen within four hours of arrival at A&E, against a 95 per cent target.

Dr Taj Hassan, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “The performance of the urgent and emergency care system is the worst it has been for a decade, and departments are massively overcrowded.”

“We’ve gone way too far already in terms of bed cuts, which put hospitals under intense pressure - going further will directly impact on patient care and death rates,” he warned.

But a number of experts have raised fears that major services and beds will be stripped out, without enough money being put into new models of care.

The plans for Dorset suggest merging two acute hospitals, with the loss of 240 beds, when population increases would suggest almost 900 more beds are needed.

The NHS last year recorded the highest deficit in its history Credit:
PA

The new study, using official NHS data from April to June of this year, shows general and acute bed occupancy levels across the county are already at 92 per cent.

Devon’s plans involve the loss of up to 600 beds, alongside possible closures of A&E, maternity and stroke services - even though latest bed occupancy rates are 89 per cent, according to the new research.

Highest occupancy levels - at 95 per cent - were found in Kent and Medway, Mid and South Essex, Milton Keyes, Bedfordshire and Luton, Coventry and Warwickshire.

The campaign group is calling on the Chancellor to increase NHS funding in his Autumn statement on Wednesday, with 110,000 signing their petition.

Amy Lockwood, campaign manager at 38 Degrees, said: ‘What these figures show is that the NHS needs more money. We all want to feel confident that our local hospital can care for us if we get ill this winter. But lots of us will look at these findings and worry that, without more money, our local NHS services might struggle to help us when we need them.”

Simon Stevens, the head of the health serviceCredit:
Geoff Pugh/Telegraph

It follows warnings from Simon Stevens, the head of the health service, that “bloody tough” times lie ahead, with per capita health spending due to fall by the end of the decade.

A Department of Health spokesman said: "We know finances are challenging for some parts of the NHS, which is why we have a strong plan to get back on track.

"We are already seeing progress, with 40 fewer trusts in deficit compared to this time last year.

An NHS England spokesperson said: “It cannot be right that on any one day in England, over 5,000 people are stuck in a hospital bed when they don't need to be. It is important that patients receive the right care, in the right place, at the right time.

"The hospital is not a home and we know that, when given the choice, patients often prefer to receive care as close to their home as possible."