Zaire: Info-Zaire #111 (excerpts), 02/12/'96

Info-Zaire, Number 111 (English) - January 19, 1996
(translated from a document produced by Entraide Missionnaire
- EMi - Montreal)

The Latest From the World of Politics

Zaire awaits the formation of a new government following
the December 6 announcement by Prime Minister Kengo
that there would soon be a cabinet shuffle. Even though
he listed his government's achievements; its actions
against those who have destroyed the currency, the
end of diplomatic isolation, and the renewal of certain
aid programs, Kengo recognised that he has not been
able to ward off social and economic decay. He stated,
'We can only succeed in setting things right with the
support and participation of one and all.'

This is welcome news, for it should be pointed out that
Kengo's government is ever more clearly sinking, in
spite of backing from Western powers and the World
Bank. Besides, as the Belgian Minister of External
Affairs reminded Kengo a few days after his announcement,
the Belgian government is still refusing to renew ties
with the floundering government of Zaire, a government
which, in addition, has never had the confidence of
the Zairian population.

On December 8, the Minister of the Interior announced
a lifting of the ban on the UFERI, party of the FPC
President, Nguz Karl-I-Bond. Its members, who had
held administrative positions for the most part in
Shaba, will be permitted henceforth to return to their
posts. Having taken control of Shaba and having organised
the expulsion of the Kasai from the province, the party
had been all but destroyed by infighting between Nguz
supporters and followers of the former Governor, Kyungu
wa Kumwanza. With elections looming, there is talk
of reconciliation. But, will the population of Shaba
accept putting power back in the hands of those it
deems responsible for its present poverty and confusion?!

Beginning December 9, Mobutu spent a few days in Tripoli
with Kadhafi. He apparently negotiated the importation
and distribution of Libyan oil for the Zairian market.
With Kadhafi's help, he would also like to set up
a major petroleum company. However, these initiatives
were taken by Mobutu alone, without the participation
of his government. Of what value is an agreement signed
by one lone man, even if he is the President of the
country?! But perhaps these two heads of state, once
enemies, now close friends in their diplomatic isolation,
have something up their sleeve.

Since mid-December, college and university professors
have been gradually returning to work in spite of opposition
from some unions who had wanted classes to resume only
subject to the draft agreement with the government
being signed. The new scale provides a monthly salary
of 3 million NZ ($195 US) for an average professor,
and 600,000 NZ ($40 US) for an assistant. This is
quite an improvement for individuals whose previous
salary was less than $10 US a month. Nonetheless,
it remains to be seen whether these salaries will be
paid regularly. Probably not. Besides, the question
of salaries for other levels of teachers still remains
unresolved.

On December 26, the HCR-PT (High Council of the Republic--
Transitional Parliament) passed a law with respect
to freedom of the press, 424 to 5, with 8 abstentions.
This unanimity was surprising, given the uproar over
Lambert Mende's fiercely criticised proposed amendment
which would have obligated journalists to reveal their
sources in the case of a court order. Similar wording
was subsequently adopted: a journalist is not obligated
to divulge his sources except where the law requires.
This reworded amendment remains sufficiently vague.
While protecting journalists and their sources in
certain situations, it does not protect them from the
so-called security services. Freedom of the press is
therefore in jeopardy.

Late on the evening of December 31, the HCR-PT approved
the State budget for 1996, totalling 11 billion NZ
($710 million US). The council members deemed it necessary
to modify the Kengo government's budget of last November
3, by increasing receipts and expenditures and projecting
a deficit of nearly $6 million US. Thus, the HCR-PT
expects to obtain more than $212 million US from customs
revenues, $186 million US from petroleum revenues,
$51 million US from la Gecamines and $22 million US
from la Miba. As for expenses, a large share is allotted
to endowments, which includes; the presidential share
($47 million US), the share reserved for foreign debt
($31 million US) and monies put aside for the operation
of the Commission nationale des elections ($73 million
US). Optimistic council members based their projections
on an inflation rate of 20%, even though inflation
topped 461% in 1995. They saw fit to correct the exchange
rate to 20,000 NZ to $1 US, while Kengo, for his part,
had estimated the average rate of exchange to be 11,000
NZ. Unfortunately, by January 2, the exchange rate
was already at 15,600 NZ, and by January 8, had reached
17,500 NZ.

Having tossed all these figures about, the council members
undoubtedly felt that the coming year would begin in
prosperity. This was not so for the thousands of civil
servants who searched in vain to see if their months
of back pay had been calculated into the budget, or
whether their salary scales, already out of line with
the actual cost of living, had been adjusted even slightly.

The Commission nationale des elections (CNE) was finally
established as of January 1. Most of the 44 members
(22 from lUSOR; 22 from the FPC) were sworn in before
the HCR-PT, some changes having been made to the original
list. Thus, there are now four representatives from
Kengo's party as well as members from the Churches
who find themselves on the committee; however, there
is no representation from civil society. The CNE immediately
began the tasks of organising itself internally, electing
a board, and preparing a budget for 1996.

Dissatisfied with the make-up of the newly formed CNE,
representatives from civil society met January 10 to
establish a parallel National Electoral Commission
charged with independently overseeing the preparation
and handling of the elections. Among these groups
are: the Conseil national des ONG de developpement
(CNONGD); l'Association Zairoise des droits de l'homme
(AZADHO); some unions; and the Comite national pour
des elections maintenant (CONEMA), founded by Justice
and Peace groups of the major Churches, among others.

About the Elections

In Kinshasa several weeks ago, in an Amos Group publication,
Jose Mpundu and Thierry Mlandu published a sociopolitical
essay entitled, elections au Zaire, chance ou danger
pour la democratie?. At a time when elections have
become an increasingly popular topic of discussion,
it is interesting to explore the perspective of these
two authors with a view to understanding the question
as seen by the Amos Group.

The authors present three major arguments. The first
argument stipulates that in the present climate, it
would be dangerous to hold elections in Zaire. If
Mobutu is elected, the country will see a return to
dictatorship; if he is not, civil war will erupt. If
the opposition loses, it will not accept the result
of the polls, and will accuse Mobutu of having fixed
the elections. In order to circumvent this foreseeable
impasse, the public must be educated and have its awareness
raised before anything can be done.

The second argument states that the Western Powers must
not become involved in these elections, neither as
observers nor as silent partners. Their involvement
should be limited to helping Zairians recover assets
plundered by officials of the regime and stockpiled
in Western banks. These funds could then be used to
finance election expenses.

The third argument consists of presenting a twelve step
strategy for holding open and democratic elections
under the auspices of Zaire's established Churches.

The proposal is coherent and appears well thought out.
From that point of view, it should be seen as a major
step in the psychological, technical and political
processes leading the population into the upcoming
elections, and as a starting point for discussion.
However, it must be pointed out that the approach
is somewhat limited. In fact, the authors tend to
minimise the destructive potential of the present regime,
and show their naivete in thinking that entrusting
the handling of elections to the Churches and the communautes
ecclesiales de base (CEB) would suffice in order to
ensure that everything flows smoothly. This does not
give enough weight to the influence of the Barons of
the Regime and their past dealings with the hierarchy
of these Churches.

Besides, the question of recovering plundered Zairian
assets assumes that once identified, the thieves could
be formally charged and convicted in an ordinary court
of law. However, the only available judicial authorities
are those adept in their dealings with the Western
banks which continue to profit from these gains even
today. Furthermore, these sorts of proceedings are
generally drawn out and costly, and are received with
little enthusiasm by financial institutions which are
hardly interested in where the investments originated.

Having read the proposed strategies, it appears that
their success is predicated on mobilising the population
to replace the present administration with members
of the CEB. This is undoubtedly a utopian project,
but one which could ultimately prove fruitful. This
could be just what Zaire sorely needs.

News from the World of Business

On January 13, the Belgian airline company Sabena issued
a comment on an impending agreement with the Zairian
government aimed at getting the situation at the bankrupt
Air Zaire under control. Sabena, along with other partners
including Swissair, are to invest $33 million US to
acquire 49.5% of the company, which would then be known
as New Air Zaire. In addition to running flights between
Kinshasa and Europe, the new company would explore
the possibility of breaking into the rapidly expanding
domestic market, presently dominated by the wealthy
of the regime. Sabena explained that this agreement
is part of a larger plan by the Zairian government
to transfer control of major national transport services
to foreign interests. Last March under this plan, the
Societe national des chemins de fer (SNCZ) became the
Societe internationale zairoise du rail (SIZARAIL)
operated under South African control

It is not only transportation which is passing quietly
into the hands of foreign private enterprise. Last
December 8, an agreement was signed between the Societe
de developpement industriel et minier du Zaire (Sodimiza)
and the Anglo-South African group, African Mining Corporation
to study the profitability of exploiting mineral deposits
at Musoshi, 120 kilometres from Lubumbashi. The aim
is to increase copper production at Sodimiza from 2,400
tonnes to 50,000 tonnes a year. Earlier, in November,
it was Kengo himself who announced the signing of another
agreement between la Gecamines and l'Union miniere
du Haut-Katanga, a subsidiary of la Societe generale
de Belgique, targeted at the development of cobalt
resources in discarded slag from installations at Kipushi
in Shaba. The expected investment is on the order
of $15 million US. This goes to show that the advice
of international financial institutions like the World
Bank, which have recommended that la Gecamines decrease
expenditures to the utmost in order to increase profitability,
is about to be followed, much to the delight of onlookers.
Democracy and a just society do not seem necessary
in the world of business.

..............

Telling Plane Crashes

Two fatal plane crashes have made headlines around the
world. On December 18, a Zairian plane crashed in Angola,
killing 139 Angolans. It had been chartered by UNITA
and had set down clandestinely in Angolan territory.
On January 8, a cargo plane demolished Kinshasa's
Simbazikita market, located at the end of the Ndolo
airport runway, killing more than 350 people. It had
not been able to take off, probably because it was
overloaded. The African Air flight had not received
authorised clearance; however, the owner of the company
had borrowed authorisation papers from ScibeZaire,
a company which belongs to Bemba Saolona, a close friend
of Mobutu. This type of thing happens regularly at
Ndolo airport, renowned for its clandestine comings
and goings, where not much is made of air traffic regulations.
Those responsible feel protected from on high. Mobutu
attended the funeral at the Protestant Cathedral (du
Centennaire) in Kinshasa, held for those who died January
10. The last time he had been there was in May of
1995, to receive an aid shipment for victims of the
Ebola virus. Bemba Saolona also attended. Not surprisingly,
someone was overheard to say, 'Those responsible for
what has happened are inside the church. I hope they're
sorry.'