Sunday, February 24, 2008

Post-Debate Blog

Originally posted elsewhere Feb. 21, 08
Now for a little anal... I mean analysis.

I think Hillary really snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory tonight.

Overall, she rocked Obama, but that little 30 second bit where she got nasty was this debate's media moment, I suspect. This will be what is played over and over again through the coming days, and this is what will define the debate for her. This is bad for her, it was not a good moment for her.

Since most people who vote will not have watched the whole thing, this is really terrible for her. Already CNN is zooming into it on line.
"Not change you can believe in, change you can xerox..." that was the line.
After this, in the debate, her approval line dropped almost every time she started talking. Only towards the end did the effect of this small moment fade enough for her to regain her previous momentum. For most people, they'll see the highlights on TV, see this moment, and not see how well she was doing before this, they won't have the chance for her to recover later, like the people watching the debate did, they'll just be left with the strong negative reaction from this moment.

If this is how it goes down, I suspect that she has lost the nomination. It is insane in close elections how such minutae can have such an effect, and it will be interesting to see if this becomes one of the defining moments of the primary season, the final nail in her coffin, so to speak.
I am looking for some talking heads to see what people are being fed about the debate, but I cannot find much.