How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

Originally posted by verb1der:
The Chiefs can go 16-1 for all it's worth, but come playoffs they'll be 1 and DONE, because the game is always placed on the QB's shoulders.

For the record, the Niners are pretenders too, we just happened to play 4 playoff teams already.

if the chiefs get a home game they will win at least one game in post season. kansas city in january is tough to play in. i think they can get a wildcard but still get a home game if they only lose one more game the rest of the way? alex was alex, did some nice things and then not so much. was surprised they did not get to manning on defense

they ain't winning the division. broncos will beat them again in two weeks.

Great minds think alike. Bill Barnwell says (in longer words) EXACTLY what I said during the game on these two situational decisions:

"Andy Reid has been excellent all year in his new job with the Kansas City Chiefs. You know the story. Denver brought an end to Kansas City's undefeated season last night, but the Chiefs did a credible job in producing a performance that was better than the 27-17 final score might have indicated. They actually might even have won the game with a little bit of luck and some context-driven coaching from Reid, but in a year when he'll win Coach of the Year, Reid didn't deliver in the biggest game of the season.

The problem is that Reid didn't adapt for the game situation he faced. All year, the Chiefs have been leading in the second half, often as a slight favorite over the team they're up against, without a significant risk of being overrun by a far superior team. They've made plenty of questionable punting decisions on the conservative side of things under that same logic: With an elite defense and an offense built around avoiding turnovers, Reid has repeatedly dared teams to drive the length of the field against a top-five defense to do something about K.C.'s lead. Given the game context, it makes sense.

But Reid didn't account for the changing context in terms of the opponent Kansas City faced Sunday. The Broncos were eight-point favorites in Vegas, and the Chiefs were underdogs who were up against it from the first drive of the game. Reid needed to coach that way and be more aggressive, knowing he was going to be stuck against a far superior quarterback. That means trying to create possessions and taking risks you wouldn't take against the Jeff Tuels and Case Keenums of the world; you have to assume you won't battle Peyton Manning to a narrow win.

Of course, he didn't. Reid's big mistake saw him kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 2:55 left in the second quarter while down 17-7. It was a brutal decision, given the team's need to generate points and the context of that specific moment. I covered the simple logic of why going for it on fourth-and-goal is right in August, but it's even more right in this moment. Kansas City's offense is built around its ability to run the ball, and it will need touchdowns to keep up with Manning. Furthermore, by giving Manning a long field, it will likely force him to be conservative; the Chiefs then can use their timeouts to create a punting situation, just as the Saints did to Manning's Colts when they went for it on fourth-and-goal and got stuffed just before halftime in Super Bowl XLIV. Since 1999,5 Manning has been at the helm of 21 possessions that began from his own 1-yard line, scoring on exactly zero of those drives. Given that a field goal and a kickoff would almost surely give the ball to Manning on the 20-yard line, that 19-yard difference in field position (were the Chiefs to be stuffed for no gain on fourth-and-1) is contextually enormous.

Then, when the Chiefs were even more desperate, Reid put the game off too long. Alex Smith got the ball into no-man's-land in the fourth quarter down 24-10 with 11:58 to go. With Kansas City facing a fourth-and-7 from the Denver 43-yard line, Reid scandalously punted. How can you punt there? That's a Goliath strategy, putting off the biggest play of the game because you don't want to go for it yet. You just can't do that. The Chiefs punted the ball into the end zone for a touchback, and two plays later, the Broncos had the ball on their own 41-yard line, right where the Chiefs had punted from. Playing a field-position game makes sense when your defense is going to shut down the opposing offense more often than not (e.g., with Manning on the 1-yard line). When you're stuck trying to produce points and desperately attempting to catch up, though, you can't punt inside the opposition's territory on fourth-and-medium. Yes, Reid has done a great job this season, but he spent Sunday night coaching the wrong sort of game for the one he was actually in."http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9995017/bill-barnwell-nfl-coaches-week-11

I don't agree with going for it on a 4th &1 at the goal line. You kick a field goal. Make it 17-10. You're only down 1 score against Manning and his offense. That's not bad at all. You're right in the game.

Should've thrown a pass into the end zone on 1 of those downs doe.

Would like to see Andy go for the 4th &7. I think in that situation it would make more sense to go for it to try to keep possession.

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
I don't agree with going for it on a 4th &1 at the goal line. You kick a field goal. Make it 17-10. You're only down 1 score against Manning and his offense. That's not bad at all. You're right in the game.

Should've thrown a pass into the end zone on 1 of those downs doe.

Would like to see Andy go for the 4th &7. I think in that situation it would make more sense to go for it to try to keep possession.

Yes, I agree with this. The OL was getting beaten, as was clear on those 3 run attempts inside the 5. There was and should have been NO confidence in them punching it in on 4th, and as you say, you make it a one score game at 17-10.

Hated the 4th and 7 decision though. Chiefs still have over a month to get the offense moving at a better pace. I don't expect large improvement.. but even if it's just marginal, it's enough to give them a real shot in the postseason. That's all that can be asked for, and a really good way to bounce back from a 2-14 season.

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
I don't agree with going for it on a 4th &1 at the goal line. You kick a field goal. Make it 17-10. You're only down 1 score against Manning and his offense. That's not bad at all. You're right in the game.

Should've thrown a pass into the end zone on 1 of those downs doe.

Would like to see Andy go for the 4th &7. I think in that situation it would make more sense to go for it to try to keep possession.

Yes, I agree with this. The OL was getting beaten, as was clear on those 3 run attempts inside the 5. There was and should have been NO confidence in them punching it in on 4th, and as you say, you make it a one score game at 17-10.

Hated the 4th and 7 decision though. Chiefs still have over a month to get the offense moving at a better pace. I don't expect large improvement.. but even if it's just marginal, it's enough to give them a real shot in the postseason. That's all that can be asked for, and a really good way to bounce back from a 2-14 season.

Chiefs not good at running inside. Charles tried to go outside on the Broncos initially, can't turn the corner on the Broncos. Went nowhere on the inside runs. They made the adjust in the second half with Charles cut back runs. A couple of times from the right tackle all the way to the left tackle. They could have used a power runner there at the goal line if Andy insist on running the ball down there.

I know it's part of the game, but those drops Killer. Chiefs defense was missing tackles also. They need to cleanup on the fundamental on both sides.

Originally posted by Joecool:
Denver O already scored more than the KC offense averages. Alex needs to throw deep. Too bad he doesn't.

what game did you not watch? Alex threw deep on numerous occasions.

I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

Originally posted by Joecool:
Denver O already scored more than the KC offense averages. Alex needs to throw deep. Too bad he doesn't.

what game did you not watch? Alex threw deep on numerous occasions.

I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

looking back historically, i think when smith has a deep threat he will throw the ball deep with some success, though it isnt the strength of his game, especially after he shoulder was busted up in 2007 (remember i posed a question to you about the changes in his arm strength after the injury, reminding you of throws made in the seahawk game on a long pass to battle, and nother long pass to derrell jackson in the 2007 opener vs arizona--dont you think a shoulder injury like that can have an effect on a qbs ability to throw deep (and yes i acknowledge with smith a large part is mental)??????

crabtree is not a guy who is going to run by dbs...he and smith still connected deep a few times, once i recall vs the rams...and once where he beat patrick peterson on a fly...he also got deep a couple times on an out and up route---i recall one being vs the eagles in 2011

the best deep threat that played for niners when smith was the qb was vernon davis and they hit a number of deep passes---antonio bryant also could beat coverage deep and he and smith hit some long passes too---but like i said i dont think the chiefs, as is true with the niners, really have any guys who are going to blow by coverage...

Originally posted by verb1der:
The Chiefs can go 16-1 for all it's worth, but come playoffs they'll be 1 and DONE, because the game is always placed on the QB's shoulders.

For the record, the Niners are pretenders too, we just happened to play 4 playoff teams already.

Not so sure about this. Denver, NE and Indy are the only AFC teams the Chiefs need to worry about. I think all are beatable, though it depends a bit on home-field. They play Denver and Indy in KC over the rest of the year and they are the most likely losses, so it looks like a wild card opponent. At any rate, I have no idea what will happen with the KC offense the rest of the way. Smith has always been a good closer (some will say it never mattered--they were out of it anyway). If the line can improve/mature and the receivers stay healthy...who knows!? Will be fun to watch and I certainly wish Smith well!

Originally posted by Joecool:
I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

Originally posted by Joecool:
Denver O already scored more than the KC offense averages. Alex needs to throw deep. Too bad he doesn't.

what game did you not watch? Alex threw deep on numerous occasions.

I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

looking back historically, i think when smith has a deep threat he will throw the ball deep with some success, though it isnt the strength of his game, especially after he shoulder was busted up in 2007 (remember i posed a question to you about the changes in his arm strength after the injury, reminding you of throws made in the seahawk game on a long pass to battle, and nother long pass to derrell jackson in the 2007 opener vs arizona--dont you think a shoulder injury like that can have an effect on a qbs ability to throw deep (and yes i acknowledge with smith a large part is mental)??????

crabtree is not a guy who is going to run by dbs...he and smith still connected deep a few times, once i recall vs the rams...and once where he beat patrick peterson on a fly...he also got deep a couple times on an out and up route---i recall one being vs the eagles in 2011

the best deep threat that played for niners when smith was the qb was vernon davis and they hit a number of deep passes---antonio bryant also could beat coverage deep and he and smith hit some long passes too---but like i said i dont think the chiefs, as is true with the niners, really have any guys who are going to blow by coverage...

No he doesn't. He will throw to a WR that has a DB beat by a yard or two but he will not throw a deep ball to a 1-on-1 reciever that is even or a hair of a step on the DB. The reason why he doesn't throw deep often is because DB's don't normally get beat bad often or a broken coverage doesn't occur often. The blueprint to beating Alex is to man-up but don't get beat deep outside the hashes as Alex will rarely throw underneath balls outside the hashes to receivers. His primary targets are between the hashes which means cover the checkdowns.

That and don't turn the ball over. He rarely wins vs a team that doesn't turn it over.

Originally posted by Joecool:
I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

lol You're still not seeing the game. There were several drops including in the redzone to Charles. And in the last drive, who in their right mind as a defense would they let anything to go deep at that point. Plus the pass rush at full force knowing they have to pass to score.

Originally posted by Joecool:
I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

lol You're still not seeing the game. There were several drops including in the redzone to Charles. And in the last drive, who in their right mind as a defense would they let anything to go deep at that point. Plus the pass rush at full force knowing they have to pass to score.

With Alex, there's always unfortunate drops. Same stuff. As for the bold, nearly every QB goes through this. Still doesn't explain the minimal points the offense is putting up. It's not difficult to beat KC: don't turn the ball over and don't allow short passes to become big plays. The deep throws? Won't be enough thrown to do damage.

I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

lol You're still not seeing the game. There were several drops including in the redzone to Charles. And in the last drive, who in their right mind as a defense would they let anything to go deep at that point. Plus the pass rush at full force knowing they have to pass to score.

With Alex, there's always unfortunate drops. Same stuff. As for the bold, nearly every QB goes through this. Still doesn't explain the minimal points the offense is putting up. It's not difficult to beat KC: don't turn the ball over and don't allow short passes to become big plays. The deep throws? Won't be enough thrown to do damage.

Not difficult to beat KC? They're 9-1, lol!!! I agree with the others, you don't watch football.

Originally posted by Joecool:
Denver O already scored more than the KC offense averages. Alex needs to throw deep. Too bad he doesn't.

what game did you not watch? Alex threw deep on numerous occasions.

I saw a game where a defense forced the offense to make a big play through the air. The DEN defense was NOT about to allow dinks and dunks to go for big gains as that's what the KC offense is primarily good for. When deep balls are thrown, the percentages decrease...that's just the way it is. He had an unfortunate drop. Kap had 2 unfortunate drops. He missed a major mismatch. He checked down on his last drive with ZERO attempt to move the ball downfield.

It is not very difficult to beat an Alex Smith ran offense. Same could be said about the 49ers offense but to the other extreme (shut down the deep routes).

looking at the play chart, smith 7 passes of 16 yards or more...

sherman 16 yds (was roll out and dump off)

mcgrath 19 yards

bowe 26 yards

bowe 16 yards

mcgrath 21 yards

avery 20 yards

mccluster 18 yards

compare that to the niners who had 1 17 yard pass and 2 ten yard passes vs saints

the 3 chiefs scoring drives were all 80 yards and they had a drive from their own 8 to inside denver's 30 that was derailed when mcgrath's hold erased smith scramble inside the 30

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