GameChangers (05/12/14)

By John Ewing

A look at highlights from the most recent game from each NBA Playoff series utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

After each NBA Playoff game we breakdown some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view the Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

The Clippers trailed by as many as 22 points and Oklahoma City was 98 percent likely to win with just over nine minutes left in the fourth leading 82-66. After being outplayed for much of the game, the Clippers rallied to even the Western Conference semifinal at two games apiece.

The largest play-to-play swing in the game occurred with 1:23 left in the fourth. After Kevin Durant made the second of two free throws to give the Thunder a 95-94 lead, Jamal Crawford made a three pointer that gave the Clippers their first lead of the game. Los Angeles' expected win probability increased from 44 percent to 67 percent.

The Thunder were the projected winner for 84 percent of the game but failed to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Indiana trailed by 17 points at the half and was down by as many as 19 points in the third before rallying from a 4 percent chance of winning. The Pacers used a 16-7 run over the final five minutes of the game to complete the comeback and take a 3-1 series lead.

Chaotic 9 Seconds
The last few seconds of the game were crazy as both teams had opportunities to win or lose the game. The first play involved Lance Stephenson, after getting a defensive rebound with the Pacers leading 94-91; Stephenson threw the ball right to Bradley Beal who almost converted a three point play. Had Beal's potential three point play been good, in a tied game the Wizards' expected win probability goes from 33 percent to 41 percent.

Following the strange possession for Washington, George Hill had the opportunity to put the game away with two free throws. Instead Hill only made one giving Indiana a 95-92 lead. The Pacers had a 66 percent chance of winning in a one possession game. Had Hill made both free throws the Pacers' expected win probability increases to 78 percent.