Unbound, unplugged, and off the reservation, the member for Wentworth took us this past week on a tour of the Peloponnesian War, the jungles of Vietnam, snippets of history left over from the Russo-China conflict, the Monroe Doctrine and a few other detours from his portfolio responsibilities of Communications, including criticism of a botched budget sales job.

That is unless you define communications with a small “c" to embrace virtually all areas of government.

As
Malcolm Turnbull
spoke at a Global Realities event at the Australian National University, co-sponsored by The Australian Financial Review, you might’ve heard teeth grinding in competing ministers’ offices across Lake Burley Griffin.

“It has, really, no allies in the region, apart from North Korea – the sort of ally you need when you’re trying to have enemies, I suppose – and the consequence has been that our neighbours are drawing closer to the United States. So what is the risk of a miscalculation?"

The member for Wentworth asked the right question. What is the risk of miscalculation? And what steps might be taken to lessen that risk?

As Australia prepares for the most important visit by a foreign leader since 2011, when President
Barack Obama
chose Canberra to announce a US pivot towards Asia – we are referring to the arrival next week of the hawkish Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe
– security issues are beginning to dominate a foreign policy agenda, as they should.

China’s shift to a more aggressive posture, some might say bullying, has been in plain sight, but policymakers have been reluctant to acknowledge an end to a “crouching tiger, hidden dragon" period of Chinese foreign policy because of difficult choices involved.

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Let’s contrast the China of today with Deng Xiaoping’s counsel following the Tiananmen massacre of 1989: “Hide our capacities and bide our time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership,’’ Deng said. Twenty-five years on and with an economy that is set to become the world’s largest within a decade, China is no longer biding and hiding.

Time and circumstance have moved on to the point where there is no choice but to face up to a new reality caught between ANU Strategic Studies professor Hugh White’s view that China’s domination of the region is inevitable, and the countervailing perspective that the US and its allies have the will and capacity to contain Beijing’s ambitions.

Abe’s visit to Canberra to address a joint session of Parliament is geared to the latter; although policymakers would be advised to tread carefully where the Japanese are concerned. Japan may be Australia’s closest friend in Asia, according to Prime Minister Abbott, but we should not forget the excesses of Japanese nationalism, nor underestimate the legitimate anger in China and South Korea over Japan’s appalling behaviour in World War II and before.

Abe, in his repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine – where executed Japanese war criminals are honoured – and in his desire to remove the shackles of Japan’s pacifist post-World War II constitution, is a problematical figure. He is not necessarily a benevolent samurai of Australian official imagination, but nor can China’s growing assertiveness be disregarded, notwithstanding attempts by its propagandists to have us believe there is nothing to worry about.

At the Financial Review-Crawford School global affairs conference, participants were treated to a fairly sophisticated exercise in Chinese sophistry, along these lines from academic Wu Xinbo. According to Wu, China’s intentions are misunderstood, its designs on the East China and South China seas are beyond the scope of international treaties since China’s claims are rooted in its own version of events, and Australia’s interests would not be served by pursuing its alliance ties in the region at the expense of relations with China, as he put it.

The problem with Wu’s analysis is that it reflects how a Chinese sophist might want us to view the world, but it does not constitute reality. China is neither as benign in its intentions as Wu would have us believe, nor are his warnings about the downside for Australia in a strengthening of military alliances in Asia-Pacific lacking in self-interest.

Zero-sum games are not part of the Chinese mindset.

This brings us back to the member for Wentworth’s reflections on Australian defence preparedness in light of a shifting regional power balance.

“We’ve got to be able to defend ourselves. We cannot be complacent about our own security," he said.

He has a point.

Tony Walker is
The Australian Financial Review
’s International Editor